DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Silvennoinen, Annastiina; Teräsvirta, Timo
This article contains a review of multivariate GARCH models. Most common GARCH models are presented and their properties considered. This also includes nonparametric and semiparametric models. Existing specification and misspecification tests are discussed. Finally, there is an empirical example...
Multivariate covariance generalized linear models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bonat, W. H.; Jørgensen, Bent
2016-01-01
We propose a general framework for non-normal multivariate data analysis called multivariate covariance generalized linear models, designed to handle multivariate response variables, along with a wide range of temporal and spatial correlation structures defined in terms of a covariance link...... function combined with a matrix linear predictor involving known matrices. The method is motivated by three data examples that are not easily handled by existing methods. The first example concerns multivariate count data, the second involves response variables of mixed types, combined with repeated...... measures and longitudinal structures, and the third involves a spatiotemporal analysis of rainfall data. The models take non-normality into account in the conventional way by means of a variance function, and the mean structure is modelled by means of a link function and a linear predictor. The models...
A "Model" Multivariable Calculus Course.
Beckmann, Charlene E.; Schlicker, Steven J.
1999-01-01
Describes a rich, investigative approach to multivariable calculus. Introduces a project in which students construct physical models of surfaces that represent real-life applications of their choice. The models, along with student-selected datasets, serve as vehicles to study most of the concepts of the course from both continuous and discrete…
Sparse Linear Identifiable Multivariate Modeling
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Henao, Ricardo; Winther, Ole
2011-01-01
In this paper we consider sparse and identifiable linear latent variable (factor) and linear Bayesian network models for parsimonious analysis of multivariate data. We propose a computationally efficient method for joint parameter and model inference, and model comparison. It consists of a fully...... Bayesian hierarchy for sparse models using slab and spike priors (two-component δ-function and continuous mixtures), non-Gaussian latent factors and a stochastic search over the ordering of the variables. The framework, which we call SLIM (Sparse Linear Identifiable Multivariate modeling), is validated...... computational complexity. We attribute this mainly to the stochastic search strategy used, and to parsimony (sparsity and identifiability), which is an explicit part of the model. We propose two extensions to the basic i.i.d. linear framework: non-linear dependence on observed variables, called SNIM (Sparse Non-linear...
Multivariable modeling and multivariate analysis for the behavioral sciences
Everitt, Brian S
2009-01-01
Multivariable Modeling and Multivariate Analysis for the Behavioral Sciences shows students how to apply statistical methods to behavioral science data in a sensible manner. Assuming some familiarity with introductory statistics, the book analyzes a host of real-world data to provide useful answers to real-life issues.The author begins by exploring the types and design of behavioral studies. He also explains how models are used in the analysis of data. After describing graphical methods, such as scatterplot matrices, the text covers simple linear regression, locally weighted regression, multip
Model Checking Multivariate State Rewards
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Bo Friis; Nielson, Flemming; Nielson, Hanne Riis
2010-01-01
We consider continuous stochastic logics with state rewards that are interpreted over continuous time Markov chains. We show how results from multivariate phase type distributions can be used to obtain higher-order moments for multivariate state rewards (including covariance). We also generalise...
Multivariate generalized linear mixed models using R
Berridge, Damon Mark
2011-01-01
Multivariate Generalized Linear Mixed Models Using R presents robust and methodologically sound models for analyzing large and complex data sets, enabling readers to answer increasingly complex research questions. The book applies the principles of modeling to longitudinal data from panel and related studies via the Sabre software package in R. A Unified Framework for a Broad Class of Models The authors first discuss members of the family of generalized linear models, gradually adding complexity to the modeling framework by incorporating random effects. After reviewing the generalized linear model notation, they illustrate a range of random effects models, including three-level, multivariate, endpoint, event history, and state dependence models. They estimate the multivariate generalized linear mixed models (MGLMMs) using either standard or adaptive Gaussian quadrature. The authors also compare two-level fixed and random effects linear models. The appendices contain additional information on quadrature, model...
Chang, Pao-Erh Paul; Yang, Jen-Chih Rena; Den, Walter; Wu, Chang-Fu
2014-09-01
Emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are most frequent environmental nuisance complaints in urban areas, especially where industrial districts are nearby. Unfortunately, identifying the responsible emission sources of VOCs is essentially a difficult task. In this study, we proposed a dynamic approach to gradually confine the location of potential VOC emission sources in an industrial complex, by combining multi-path open-path Fourier transform infrared spectrometry (OP-FTIR) measurement and the statistical method of principal component analysis (PCA). Close-cell FTIR was further used to verify the VOC emission source by measuring emitted VOCs from selected exhaust stacks at factories in the confined areas. Multiple open-path monitoring lines were deployed during a 3-month monitoring campaign in a complex industrial district. The emission patterns were identified and locations of emissions were confined by the wind data collected simultaneously. N,N-Dimethyl formamide (DMF), 2-butanone, toluene, and ethyl acetate with mean concentrations of 80.0 ± 1.8, 34.5 ± 0.8, 103.7 ± 2.8, and 26.6 ± 0.7 ppbv, respectively, were identified as the major VOC mixture at all times of the day around the receptor site. As the toxic air pollutant, the concentrations of DMF in air samples were found exceeding the ambient standard despite the path-average effect of OP-FTIR upon concentration levels. The PCA data identified three major emission sources, including PU coating, chemical packaging, and lithographic printing industries. Applying instrumental measurement and statistical modeling, this study has established a systematic approach for locating emission sources. Statistical modeling (PCA) plays an important role in reducing dimensionality of a large measured dataset and identifying underlying emission sources. Instrumental measurement, however, helps verify the outcomes of the statistical modeling. The field study has demonstrated the feasibility of
Ranking multivariate GARCH models by problem dimension
M. Caporin (Massimiliano); M.J. McAleer (Michael)
2010-01-01
textabstractIn the last 15 years, several Multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) models have appeared in the literature. The two most widely known and used are the Scalar BEKK model of Engle and Kroner (1995) and Ding and Engle (2001), and the DCC model of Engle (2002). Some recent research has begun to
The value of multivariate model sophistication
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rombouts, Jeroen; Stentoft, Lars; Violante, Francesco
2014-01-01
We assess the predictive accuracies of a large number of multivariate volatility models in terms of pricing options on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. We measure the value of model sophistication in terms of dollar losses by considering a set of 444 multivariate models that differ in their spec......We assess the predictive accuracies of a large number of multivariate volatility models in terms of pricing options on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. We measure the value of model sophistication in terms of dollar losses by considering a set of 444 multivariate models that differ...... in their specification of the conditional variance, conditional correlation, innovation distribution, and estimation approach. All of the models belong to the dynamic conditional correlation class, which is particularly suitable because it allows consistent estimations of the risk neutral dynamics with a manageable....... In addition to investigating the value of model sophistication in terms of dollar losses directly, we also use the model confidence set approach to statistically infer the set of models that delivers the best pricing performances....
Multivariate linear models and repeated measurements revisited
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Dalgaard, Peter
2009-01-01
Methods for generalized analysis of variance based on multivariate normal theory have been known for many years. In a repeated measurements context, it is most often of interest to consider transformed responses, typically within-subject contrasts or averages. Efficiency considerations leads to s...... method involving differences between orthogonal projections onto subspaces generated by within-subject models....
Modeling Covariance Breakdowns in Multivariate GARCH
Jin, Xin; Maheu, John M
2014-01-01
This paper proposes a flexible way of modeling dynamic heterogeneous covariance breakdowns in multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) models. During periods of normal market activity, volatility dynamics are governed by an MGARCH specification. A covariance breakdown is any significant temporary deviation of the conditional covariance matrix from its implied MGARCH dynamics. This is captured through a flexible stochastic component that allows for changes in the conditional variances, covariances and impl...
Response Surface Modeling Using Multivariate Orthogonal Functions
Morelli, Eugene A.; DeLoach, Richard
2001-01-01
A nonlinear modeling technique was used to characterize response surfaces for non-dimensional longitudinal aerodynamic force and moment coefficients, based on wind tunnel data from a commercial jet transport model. Data were collected using two experimental procedures - one based on modem design of experiments (MDOE), and one using a classical one factor at a time (OFAT) approach. The nonlinear modeling technique used multivariate orthogonal functions generated from the independent variable data as modeling functions in a least squares context to characterize the response surfaces. Model terms were selected automatically using a prediction error metric. Prediction error bounds computed from the modeling data alone were found to be- a good measure of actual prediction error for prediction points within the inference space. Root-mean-square model fit error and prediction error were less than 4 percent of the mean response value in all cases. Efficacy and prediction performance of the response surface models identified from both MDOE and OFAT experiments were investigated.
Bayesian Inference of a Multivariate Regression Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Marick S. Sinay
2014-01-01
Full Text Available We explore Bayesian inference of a multivariate linear regression model with use of a flexible prior for the covariance structure. The commonly adopted Bayesian setup involves the conjugate prior, multivariate normal distribution for the regression coefficients and inverse Wishart specification for the covariance matrix. Here we depart from this approach and propose a novel Bayesian estimator for the covariance. A multivariate normal prior for the unique elements of the matrix logarithm of the covariance matrix is considered. Such structure allows for a richer class of prior distributions for the covariance, with respect to strength of beliefs in prior location hyperparameters, as well as the added ability, to model potential correlation amongst the covariance structure. The posterior moments of all relevant parameters of interest are calculated based upon numerical results via a Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure. The Metropolis-Hastings-within-Gibbs algorithm is invoked to account for the construction of a proposal density that closely matches the shape of the target posterior distribution. As an application of the proposed technique, we investigate a multiple regression based upon the 1980 High School and Beyond Survey.
Multivariate generalized linear model for genetic pleiotropy.
Schaid, Daniel J; Tong, Xingwei; Batzler, Anthony; Sinnwell, Jason P; Qing, Jiang; Biernacka, Joanna M
2017-12-16
When a single gene influences more than one trait, known as pleiotropy, it is important to detect pleiotropy to improve the biological understanding of a gene. This can lead to improved screening, diagnosis, and treatment of diseases. Yet, most current multivariate methods to evaluate pleiotropy test the null hypothesis that none of the traits are associated with a variant; departures from the null could be driven by just one associated trait. A formal test of pleiotropy should assume a null hypothesis that one or fewer traits are associated with a genetic variant. We recently developed statistical methods to analyze pleiotropy for quantitative traits having a multivariate normal distribution. We now extend this approach to traits that can be modeled by generalized linear models, such as analysis of binary, ordinal, or quantitative traits, or a mixture of these types of traits. Based on methods from estimating equations, we developed a new test for pleiotropy. We then extended the testing framework to a sequential approach to test the null hypothesis that $k+1$ traits are associated, given that the null of $k$ associated traits was rejected. This provides a testing framework to determine the number of traits associated with a genetic variant, as well as which traits, while accounting for correlations among the traits. By simulations, we illustrate the Type-I error rate and power of our new methods, describe how they are influenced by sample size, the number of traits, and the trait correlations, and apply the new methods to a genome-wide association study of multivariate traits measuring symptoms of major depression. Our new approach provides a quantitative assessment of pleiotropy, enhancing current analytic practice. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.
Nonparametric Bayes Modeling of Multivariate Categorical Data.
Dunson, David B; Xing, Chuanhua
2012-01-01
Modeling of multivariate unordered categorical (nominal) data is a challenging problem, particularly in high dimensions and cases in which one wishes to avoid strong assumptions about the dependence structure. Commonly used approaches rely on the incorporation of latent Gaussian random variables or parametric latent class models. The goal of this article is to develop a nonparametric Bayes approach, which defines a prior with full support on the space of distributions for multiple unordered categorical variables. This support condition ensures that we are not restricting the dependence structure a priori. We show this can be accomplished through a Dirichlet process mixture of product multinomial distributions, which is also a convenient form for posterior computation. Methods for nonparametric testing of violations of independence are proposed, and the methods are applied to model positional dependence within transcription factor binding motifs.
Multivariable modeling of J-R data
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Eason, E.D.; Wright, J.E.; Nelson, E.E.
1991-01-01
Current methods for evaluating safety and remaining life issues for reactor pressure vessels (RPV's) and piping are based on the J-R curve. Unfortunately, field-aged J-specimens are not always available for the specific weld or heat in service or at the radiation conditions which match the case to be analyzed. In order to best evaluate plant safety, therefore, it is necessary to reliably estimate a J-R curve from available data, such as material chemistry, radiation exposure, tensile properties, and Charpy data. A multivariable model for predicting J-R curves from available data, such as material chemistry, radiation exposure, and Charpy data, is being developed. This is an interim report on a project to collect public test data, apply advanced pattern recognition tools, and fit an improved model. A four-parameter model for the dependence of J d on crack extension, Charpy energy, temperature, and specimen thickness is presented
Models and Inference for Multivariate Spatial Extremes
Vettori, Sabrina
2017-12-07
The development of flexible and interpretable statistical methods is necessary in order to provide appropriate risk assessment measures for extreme events and natural disasters. In this thesis, we address this challenge by contributing to the developing research field of Extreme-Value Theory. We initially study the performance of existing parametric and non-parametric estimators of extremal dependence for multivariate maxima. As the dimensionality increases, non-parametric estimators are more flexible than parametric methods but present some loss in efficiency that we quantify under various scenarios. We introduce a statistical tool which imposes the required shape constraints on non-parametric estimators in high dimensions, significantly improving their performance. Furthermore, by embedding the tree-based max-stable nested logistic distribution in the Bayesian framework, we develop a statistical algorithm that identifies the most likely tree structures representing the data\\'s extremal dependence using the reversible jump Monte Carlo Markov Chain method. A mixture of these trees is then used for uncertainty assessment in prediction through Bayesian model averaging. The computational complexity of full likelihood inference is significantly decreased by deriving a recursive formula for the nested logistic model likelihood. The algorithm performance is verified through simulation experiments which also compare different likelihood procedures. Finally, we extend the nested logistic representation to the spatial framework in order to jointly model multivariate variables collected across a spatial region. This situation emerges often in environmental applications but is not often considered in the current literature. Simulation experiments show that the new class of multivariate max-stable processes is able to detect both the cross and inner spatial dependence of a number of extreme variables at a relatively low computational cost, thanks to its Bayesian hierarchical
Multivariate Heteroscedasticity Models for Functional Brain Connectivity
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Christof Seiler
2017-12-01
Full Text Available Functional brain connectivity is the co-occurrence of brain activity in different areas during resting and while doing tasks. The data of interest are multivariate timeseries measured simultaneously across brain parcels using resting-state fMRI (rfMRI. We analyze functional connectivity using two heteroscedasticity models. Our first model is low-dimensional and scales linearly in the number of brain parcels. Our second model scales quadratically. We apply both models to data from the Human Connectome Project (HCP comparing connectivity between short and conventional sleepers. We find stronger functional connectivity in short than conventional sleepers in brain areas consistent with previous findings. This might be due to subjects falling asleep in the scanner. Consequently, we recommend the inclusion of average sleep duration as a covariate to remove unwanted variation in rfMRI studies. A power analysis using the HCP data shows that a sample size of 40 detects 50% of the connectivity at a false discovery rate of 20%. We provide implementations using R and the probabilistic programming language Stan.
Multivariate linear models and repeated measurements revisited
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Dalgaard, Peter
2009-01-01
Methods for generalized analysis of variance based on multivariate normal theory have been known for many years. In a repeated measurements context, it is most often of interest to consider transformed responses, typically within-subject contrasts or averages. Efficiency considerations leads to s...
Modelling the Covariance Structure in Marginal Multivariate Count Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bonat, W. H.; Olivero, J.; Grande-Vega, M.
2017-01-01
The main goal of this article is to present a flexible statistical modelling framework to deal with multivariate count data along with longitudinal and repeated measures structures. The covariance structure for each response variable is defined in terms of a covariance link function combined...... with a matrix linear predictor involving known matrices. In order to specify the joint covariance matrix for the multivariate response vector, the generalized Kronecker product is employed. We take into account the count nature of the data by means of the power dispersion function associated with the Poisson...
Allegrini, Franco; Braga, Jez W B; Moreira, Alessandro C O; Olivieri, Alejandro C
2018-06-29
A new multivariate regression model, named Error Covariance Penalized Regression (ECPR) is presented. Following a penalized regression strategy, the proposed model incorporates information about the measurement error structure of the system, using the error covariance matrix (ECM) as a penalization term. Results are reported from both simulations and experimental data based on replicate mid and near infrared (MIR and NIR) spectral measurements. The results for ECPR are better under non-iid conditions when compared with traditional first-order multivariate methods such as ridge regression (RR), principal component regression (PCR) and partial least-squares regression (PLS). Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
A Range-Based Multivariate Model for Exchange Rate Volatility
B. Tims (Ben); R.J. Mahieu (Ronald)
2003-01-01
textabstractIn this paper we present a parsimonious multivariate model for exchange rate volatilities based on logarithmic high-low ranges of daily exchange rates. The multivariate stochastic volatility model divides the log range of each exchange rate into two independent latent factors, which are
A Multivariate Approach to Functional Neuro Modeling
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Mørch, Niels J.S.
1998-01-01
by the application of linear and more flexible, nonlinear microscopic regression models to a real-world dataset. The dependency of model performance, as quantified by generalization error, on model flexibility and training set size is demonstrated, leading to the important realization that no uniformly optimal model......, provides the basis for a generalization theoretical framework relating model performance to model complexity and dataset size. Briefly summarized the major topics discussed in the thesis include: - An introduction of the representation of functional datasets by pairs of neuronal activity patterns...... exists. - Model visualization and interpretation techniques. The simplicity of this task for linear models contrasts the difficulties involved when dealing with nonlinear models. Finally, a visualization technique for nonlinear models is proposed. A single observation emerges from the thesis...
Multivariate Survival Mixed Models for Genetic Analysis of Longevity Traits
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pimentel Maia, Rafael; Madsen, Per; Labouriau, Rodrigo
2013-01-01
A class of multivariate mixed survival models for continuous and discrete time with a complex covariance structure is introduced in a context of quantitative genetic applications. The methods introduced can be used in many applications in quantitative genetics although the discussion presented....... The discrete time models used are multivariate variants of the discrete relative risk models. These models allow for regular parametric likelihood-based inference by exploring a coincidence of their likelihood functions and the likelihood functions of suitably defined multivariate generalized linear mixed...
Modelling and Forecasting Multivariate Realized Volatility
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Chiriac, Roxana; Voev, Valeri
. We provide an empirical application of the model, in which we show by means of stochastic dominance tests that the returns from an optimal portfolio based on the model's forecasts second-order dominate returns of portfolios optimized on the basis of traditional MGARCH models. This result implies...
Sparse Multivariate Modeling: Priors and Applications
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Henao, Ricardo
This thesis presents a collection of statistical models that attempt to take advantage of every piece of prior knowledge available to provide the models with as much structure as possible. The main motivation for introducing these models is interpretability since in practice we want to be able to...
Fractional and multivariable calculus model building and optimization problems
Mathai, A M
2017-01-01
This textbook presents a rigorous approach to multivariable calculus in the context of model building and optimization problems. This comprehensive overview is based on lectures given at five SERC Schools from 2008 to 2012 and covers a broad range of topics that will enable readers to understand and create deterministic and nondeterministic models. Researchers, advanced undergraduate, and graduate students in mathematics, statistics, physics, engineering, and biological sciences will find this book to be a valuable resource for finding appropriate models to describe real-life situations. The first chapter begins with an introduction to fractional calculus moving on to discuss fractional integrals, fractional derivatives, fractional differential equations and their solutions. Multivariable calculus is covered in the second chapter and introduces the fundamentals of multivariable calculus (multivariable functions, limits and continuity, differentiability, directional derivatives and expansions of multivariable ...
Mittal, Surabhi; Mehar, Mamta
2016-01-01
Purpose: The paper analyzes factors that affect the likelihood of adoption of different agriculture-related information sources by farmers. Design/Methodology/Approach: The paper links the theoretical understanding of the existing multiple sources of information that farmers use, with the empirical model to analyze the factors that affect the…
Global Nonlinear Model Identification with Multivariate Splines
De Visser, C.C.
2011-01-01
At present, model based control systems play an essential role in many aspects of modern society. Application areas of model based control systems range from food processing to medical imaging, and from process control in oil refineries to the flight control systems of modern aircraft. Central to a
A Multivariate Model of Achievement in Geometry
Bailey, MarLynn; Taasoobshirazi, Gita; Carr, Martha
2014-01-01
Previous studies have shown that several key variables influence student achievement in geometry, but no research has been conducted to determine how these variables interact. A model of achievement in geometry was tested on a sample of 102 high school students. Structural equation modeling was used to test hypothesized relationships among…
A Range-Based Multivariate Model for Exchange Rate Volatility
Tims, Ben; Mahieu, Ronald
2003-01-01
textabstractIn this paper we present a parsimonious multivariate model for exchange rate volatilities based on logarithmic high-low ranges of daily exchange rates. The multivariate stochastic volatility model divides the log range of each exchange rate into two independent latent factors, which are interpreted as the underlying currency specific components. Due to the normality of logarithmic volatilities the model can be estimated conveniently with standard Kalman filter techniques. Our resu...
Modelling and Forecasting Multivariate Realized Volatility
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Halbleib, Roxana; Voev, Valeri
2011-01-01
This paper proposes a methodology for dynamic modelling and forecasting of realized covariance matrices based on fractionally integrated processes. The approach allows for flexible dependence patterns and automatically guarantees positive definiteness of the forecast. We provide an empirical appl...
Multivariable Wind Modeling in State Space
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sichani, Mahdi Teimouri; Pedersen, B. J.
2011-01-01
-spectral density matrix a frequency response matrix is constructed which determines the turbulence vector as a linear filtration of Gaussian white noise. Finally, an accurate state space modeling method is proposed which allows selection of an appropriate model order, and estimation of a state space model......Turbulence of the incoming wind field is of paramount importance to the dynamic response of wind turbines. Hence reliable stochastic models of the turbulence should be available from which time series can be generated for dynamic response and structural safety analysis. In the paper an empirical...... cross-spectral density function for the along-wind turbulence component over the rotor plane is taken as the starting point. The spectrum is spatially discretized in terms of a Hermitian cross-spectral density matrix for the turbulence state vector which turns out not to be positive definite. Since...
Multivariate Term Structure Models with Level and Heteroskedasticity Effects
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Christiansen, Charlotte
2005-01-01
The paper introduces and estimates a multivariate level-GARCH model for the long rate and the term-structure spread where the conditional volatility is proportional to the ãth power of the variable itself (level effects) and the conditional covariance matrix evolves according to a multivariate GA...... and the level model. GARCH effects are more important than level effects. The results are robust to the maturity of the interest rates. Udgivelsesdato: MAY...
Multivariate statistical modelling based on generalized linear models
Fahrmeir, Ludwig
1994-01-01
This book is concerned with the use of generalized linear models for univariate and multivariate regression analysis. Its emphasis is to provide a detailed introductory survey of the subject based on the analysis of real data drawn from a variety of subjects including the biological sciences, economics, and the social sciences. Where possible, technical details and proofs are deferred to an appendix in order to provide an accessible account for non-experts. Topics covered include: models for multi-categorical responses, model checking, time series and longitudinal data, random effects models, and state-space models. Throughout, the authors have taken great pains to discuss the underlying theoretical ideas in ways that relate well to the data at hand. As a result, numerous researchers whose work relies on the use of these models will find this an invaluable account to have on their desks. "The basic aim of the authors is to bring together and review a large part of recent advances in statistical modelling of m...
Univariate and Multivariate Specification Search Indices in Covariance Structure Modeling.
Hutchinson, Susan R.
1993-01-01
Simulated population data were used to compare relative performances of the modification index and C. Chou and P. M. Bentler's Lagrange multiplier test (a multivariate generalization of a modification index) for four levels of model misspecification. Both indices failed to recover the true model except at the lowest level of misspecification. (SLD)
Robust Ranking of Multivariate GARCH Models by Problem Dimension
M. Caporin (Massimiliano); M.J. McAleer (Michael)
2012-01-01
textabstractDuring the last 15 years, several Multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) models have appeared in the literature. Recent research has begun to examine MGARCH specifications in terms of their out-of-sample forecasting performance. We provide an empirical comparison of alternative MGARCH models,
Ranking Multivariate GARCH Models by Problem Dimension: An Empirical Evaluation
M. Caporin (Massimiliano); M.J. McAleer (Michael)
2011-01-01
textabstractIn the last 15 years, several Multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) models have appeared in the literature. Recent research has begun to examine MGARCH specifications in terms of their out-of-sample forecasting performance. In this paper, we provide an empirical comparison of a set of models,
Bayesian Estimation of Multivariate Latent Regression Models: Gauss versus Laplace
Culpepper, Steven Andrew; Park, Trevor
2017-01-01
A latent multivariate regression model is developed that employs a generalized asymmetric Laplace (GAL) prior distribution for regression coefficients. The model is designed for high-dimensional applications where an approximate sparsity condition is satisfied, such that many regression coefficients are near zero after accounting for all the model…
Learning Adaptive Forecasting Models from Irregularly Sampled Multivariate Clinical Data.
Liu, Zitao; Hauskrecht, Milos
2016-02-01
Building accurate predictive models of clinical multivariate time series is crucial for understanding of the patient condition, the dynamics of a disease, and clinical decision making. A challenging aspect of this process is that the model should be flexible and adaptive to reflect well patient-specific temporal behaviors and this also in the case when the available patient-specific data are sparse and short span. To address this problem we propose and develop an adaptive two-stage forecasting approach for modeling multivariate, irregularly sampled clinical time series of varying lengths. The proposed model (1) learns the population trend from a collection of time series for past patients; (2) captures individual-specific short-term multivariate variability; and (3) adapts by automatically adjusting its predictions based on new observations. The proposed forecasting model is evaluated on a real-world clinical time series dataset. The results demonstrate the benefits of our approach on the prediction tasks for multivariate, irregularly sampled clinical time series, and show that it can outperform both the population based and patient-specific time series prediction models in terms of prediction accuracy.
Multivariate Receptor Models for Spatially Correlated Multipollutant Data
Jun, Mikyoung
2013-08-01
The goal of multivariate receptor modeling is to estimate the profiles of major pollution sources and quantify their impacts based on ambient measurements of pollutants. Traditionally, multivariate receptor modeling has been applied to multiple air pollutant data measured at a single monitoring site or measurements of a single pollutant collected at multiple monitoring sites. Despite the growing availability of multipollutant data collected from multiple monitoring sites, there has not yet been any attempt to incorporate spatial dependence that may exist in such data into multivariate receptor modeling. We propose a spatial statistics extension of multivariate receptor models that enables us to incorporate spatial dependence into estimation of source composition profiles and contributions given the prespecified number of sources and the model identification conditions. The proposed method yields more precise estimates of source profiles by accounting for spatial dependence in the estimation. More importantly, it enables predictions of source contributions at unmonitored sites as well as when there are missing values at monitoring sites. The method is illustrated with simulated data and real multipollutant data collected from eight monitoring sites in Harris County, Texas. Supplementary materials for this article, including data and R code for implementing the methods, are available online on the journal web site. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.
Copula Based Factorization in Bayesian Multivariate Infinite Mixture Models
Martin Burda; Artem Prokhorov
2012-01-01
Bayesian nonparametric models based on infinite mixtures of density kernels have been recently gaining in popularity due to their flexibility and feasibility of implementation even in complicated modeling scenarios. In economics, they have been particularly useful in estimating nonparametric distributions of latent variables. However, these models have been rarely applied in more than one dimension. Indeed, the multivariate case suffers from the curse of dimensionality, with a rapidly increas...
Multivariate Product-Shot-noise Cox Point Process Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jalilian, Abdollah; Guan, Yongtao; Mateu, Jorge
We introduce a new multivariate product-shot-noise Cox process which is useful for model- ing multi-species spatial point patterns with clustering intra-specific interactions and neutral, negative or positive inter-specific interactions. The auto and cross pair correlation functions of the process...
Multivariate Variance Targeting in the BEKK-GARCH Model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pedersen, Rasmus Søndergaard; Rahbek, Anders
This paper considers asymptotic inference in the multivariate BEKK model based on (co-)variance targeting (VT). By de…nition the VT estimator is a two-step estimator and the theory presented is based on expansions of the modi…ed like- lihood function, or estimating function, corresponding...
Multivariate Variance Targeting in the BEKK-GARCH Model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pedersen, Rasmus Søndergaard; Rahbek, Anders
2014-01-01
This paper considers asymptotic inference in the multivariate BEKK model based on (co-)variance targeting (VT). By definition the VT estimator is a two-step estimator and the theory presented is based on expansions of the modified likelihood function, or estimating function, corresponding...
Multivariate Variance Targeting in the BEKK-GARCH Model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pedersen, Rasmus Søndergaard; Rahbek, Anders
This paper considers asymptotic inference in the multivariate BEKK model based on (co-)variance targeting (VT). By de…nition the VT estimator is a two-step estimator and the theory presented is based on expansions of the modi…ed likelihood function, or estimating function, corresponding...
Multivariate Survival Mixed Models for Genetic Analysis of Longevity Traits
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pimentel Maia, Rafael; Madsen, Per; Labouriau, Rodrigo
2014-01-01
A class of multivariate mixed survival models for continuous and discrete time with a complex covariance structure is introduced in a context of quantitative genetic applications. The methods introduced can be used in many applications in quantitative genetics although the discussion presented co...
Multivariate time series modeling of selected childhood diseases in ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
This paper is focused on modeling the five most prevalent childhood diseases in Akwa Ibom State using a multivariate approach to time series. An aggregate of 78,839 reported cases of malaria, upper respiratory tract infection (URTI), Pneumonia, anaemia and tetanus were extracted from five randomly selected hospitals in ...
A joint model for multivariate hierarchical semicontinuous data with replications.
Kassahun-Yimer, Wondwosen; Albert, Paul S; Lipsky, Leah M; Nansel, Tonja R; Liu, Aiyi
2017-01-01
Longitudinal data are often collected in biomedical applications in such a way that measurements on more than one response are taken from a given subject repeatedly overtime. For some problems, these multiple profiles need to be modeled jointly to get insight on the joint evolution and/or association of these responses over time. In practice, such longitudinal outcomes may have many zeros that need to be accounted for in the analysis. For example, in dietary intake studies, as we focus on in this paper, some food components are eaten daily by almost all subjects, while others are consumed episodically, where individuals have time periods where they do not eat these components followed by periods where they do. These episodically consumed foods need to be adequately modeled to account for the many zeros that are encountered. In this paper, we propose a joint model to analyze multivariate hierarchical semicontinuous data characterized by many zeros and more than one replicate observations at each measurement occasion. This approach allows for different probability mechanisms for describing the zero behavior as compared with the mean intake given that the individual consumes the food. To deal with the potentially large number of multivariate profiles, we use a pairwise model fitting approach that was developed in the context of multivariate Gaussian random effects models with large number of multivariate components. The novelty of the proposed approach is that it incorporates: (1) multivariate, possibly correlated, response variables; (2) within subject correlation resulting from repeated measurements taken from each subject; (3) many zero observations; (4) overdispersion; and (5) replicate measurements at each visit time.
Collision prediction models using multivariate Poisson-lognormal regression.
El-Basyouny, Karim; Sayed, Tarek
2009-07-01
This paper advocates the use of multivariate Poisson-lognormal (MVPLN) regression to develop models for collision count data. The MVPLN approach presents an opportunity to incorporate the correlations across collision severity levels and their influence on safety analyses. The paper introduces a new multivariate hazardous location identification technique, which generalizes the univariate posterior probability of excess that has been commonly proposed and applied in the literature. In addition, the paper presents an alternative approach for quantifying the effect of the multivariate structure on the precision of expected collision frequency. The MVPLN approach is compared with the independent (separate) univariate Poisson-lognormal (PLN) models with respect to model inference, goodness-of-fit, identification of hot spots and precision of expected collision frequency. The MVPLN is modeled using the WinBUGS platform which facilitates computation of posterior distributions as well as providing a goodness-of-fit measure for model comparisons. The results indicate that the estimates of the extra Poisson variation parameters were considerably smaller under MVPLN leading to higher precision. The improvement in precision is due mainly to the fact that MVPLN accounts for the correlation between the latent variables representing property damage only (PDO) and injuries plus fatalities (I+F). This correlation was estimated at 0.758, which is highly significant, suggesting that higher PDO rates are associated with higher I+F rates, as the collision likelihood for both types is likely to rise due to similar deficiencies in roadway design and/or other unobserved factors. In terms of goodness-of-fit, the MVPLN model provided a superior fit than the independent univariate models. The multivariate hazardous location identification results demonstrated that some hazardous locations could be overlooked if the analysis was restricted to the univariate models.
Cross-country transferability of multi-variable damage models
Wagenaar, Dennis; Lüdtke, Stefan; Kreibich, Heidi; Bouwer, Laurens
2017-04-01
Flood damage assessment is often done with simple damage curves based only on flood water depth. Additionally, damage models are often transferred in space and time, e.g. from region to region or from one flood event to another. Validation has shown that depth-damage curve estimates are associated with high uncertainties, particularly when applied in regions outside the area where the data for curve development was collected. Recently, progress has been made with multi-variable damage models created with data-mining techniques, i.e. Bayesian Networks and random forest. However, it is still unknown to what extent and under which conditions model transfers are possible and reliable. Model validations in different countries will provide valuable insights into the transferability of multi-variable damage models. In this study we compare multi-variable models developed on basis of flood damage datasets from Germany as well as from The Netherlands. Data from several German floods was collected using computer aided telephone interviews. Data from the 1993 Meuse flood in the Netherlands is available, based on compensations paid by the government. The Bayesian network and random forest based models are applied and validated in both countries on basis of the individual datasets. A major challenge was the harmonization of the variables between both datasets due to factors like differences in variable definitions, and regional and temporal differences in flood hazard and exposure characteristics. Results of model validations and comparisons in both countries are discussed, particularly in respect to encountered challenges and possible solutions for an improvement of model transferability.
Multivariable robust adaptive controller using reduced-order model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wei Wang
1990-04-01
Full Text Available In this paper a multivariable robust adaptive controller is presented for a plant with bounded disturbances and unmodeled dynamics due to plant-model order mismatches. The robust stability of the closed-loop system is achieved by using the normalization technique and the least squares parameter estimation scheme with dead zones. The weighting polynomial matrices are incorporated into the control law, so that the open-loop unstable or/and nonminimum phase plants can be handled.
The following SAS macros can be used to create a multivariate usual intake distribution for multiple dietary components that are consumed nearly every day or episodically. A SAS macro for performing balanced repeated replication (BRR) variance estimation is also included.
The multivariate supOU stochastic volatility model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole; Stelzer, Robert
structure of the volatility, the log returns, as well as their "squares" are discussed in detail. Moreover, we give several examples in which long memory effects occur and study how the model as well as the simple Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type stochastic volatility model behave under linear transformations......Using positive semidefinite supOU (superposition of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type) processes to describe the volatility, we introduce a multivariate stochastic volatility model for financial data which is capable of modelling long range dependence effects. The finiteness of moments and the second order....... In particular, the models are shown to be preserved under invertible linear transformations. Finally, we discuss how (sup)OU stochastic volatility models can be combined with a factor modelling approach....
Regularized multivariate regression models with skew-t error distributions
Chen, Lianfu
2014-06-01
We consider regularization of the parameters in multivariate linear regression models with the errors having a multivariate skew-t distribution. An iterative penalized likelihood procedure is proposed for constructing sparse estimators of both the regression coefficient and inverse scale matrices simultaneously. The sparsity is introduced through penalizing the negative log-likelihood by adding L1-penalties on the entries of the two matrices. Taking advantage of the hierarchical representation of skew-t distributions, and using the expectation conditional maximization (ECM) algorithm, we reduce the problem to penalized normal likelihood and develop a procedure to minimize the ensuing objective function. Using a simulation study the performance of the method is assessed, and the methodology is illustrated using a real data set with a 24-dimensional response vector. © 2014 Elsevier B.V.
Enhancing scientific reasoning by refining students' models of multivariable causality
Keselman, Alla
Inquiry learning as an educational method is gaining increasing support among elementary and middle school educators. In inquiry activities at the middle school level, students are typically asked to conduct investigations and infer causal relationships about multivariable causal systems. In these activities, students usually demonstrate significant strategic weaknesses and insufficient metastrategic understanding of task demands. Present work suggests that these weaknesses arise from students' deficient mental models of multivariable causality, in which effects of individual features are neither additive, nor constant. This study is an attempt to develop an intervention aimed at enhancing scientific reasoning by refining students' models of multivariable causality. Three groups of students engaged in a scientific investigation activity over seven weekly sessions. By creating unique combinations of five features potentially involved in earthquake mechanism and observing associated risk meter readings, students had to find out which of the features were causal, and to learn to predict earthquake risk. Additionally, students in the instructional and practice groups engaged in self-directed practice in making scientific predictions. The instructional group also participated in weekly instructional sessions on making predictions based on multivariable causality. Students in the practice and instructional conditions showed small to moderate improvement in their attention to the evidence and in their metastrategic ability to recognize effective investigative strategies in the work of other students. They also demonstrated a trend towards making a greater number of valid inferences than the control group students. Additionally, students in the instructional condition showed significant improvement in their ability to draw inferences based on multiple records. They also developed more accurate knowledge about non-causal features of the system. These gains were maintained
Multivariate Statistical Modelling of Drought and Heat Wave Events
Manning, Colin; Widmann, Martin; Vrac, Mathieu; Maraun, Douglas; Bevaqua, Emanuele
2016-04-01
Multivariate Statistical Modelling of Drought and Heat Wave Events C. Manning1,2, M. Widmann1, M. Vrac2, D. Maraun3, E. Bevaqua2,3 1. School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, UK 2. Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, (LSCE-IPSL), Centre d'Etudes de Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France 3. Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Brandhofgasse 5, 8010 Graz, Austria Compound extreme events are a combination of two or more contributing events which in themselves may not be extreme but through their joint occurrence produce an extreme impact. Compound events are noted in the latest IPCC report as an important type of extreme event that have been given little attention so far. As part of the CE:LLO project (Compound Events: muLtivariate statisticaL mOdelling) we are developing a multivariate statistical model to gain an understanding of the dependence structure of certain compound events. One focus of this project is on the interaction between drought and heat wave events. Soil moisture has both a local and non-local effect on the occurrence of heat waves where it strongly controls the latent heat flux affecting the transfer of sensible heat to the atmosphere. These processes can create a feedback whereby a heat wave maybe amplified or suppressed by the soil moisture preconditioning, and vice versa, the heat wave may in turn have an effect on soil conditions. An aim of this project is to capture this dependence in order to correctly describe the joint probabilities of these conditions and the resulting probability of their compound impact. We will show an application of Pair Copula Constructions (PCCs) to study the aforementioned compound event. PCCs allow in theory for the formulation of multivariate dependence structures in any dimension where the PCC is a decomposition of a multivariate distribution into a product of bivariate components modelled using copulas. A
Multivariate longitudinal data analysis with mixed effects hidden Markov models.
Raffa, Jesse D; Dubin, Joel A
2015-09-01
Multiple longitudinal responses are often collected as a means to capture relevant features of the true outcome of interest, which is often hidden and not directly measurable. We outline an approach which models these multivariate longitudinal responses as generated from a hidden disease process. We propose a class of models which uses a hidden Markov model with separate but correlated random effects between multiple longitudinal responses. This approach was motivated by a smoking cessation clinical trial, where a bivariate longitudinal response involving both a continuous and a binomial response was collected for each participant to monitor smoking behavior. A Bayesian method using Markov chain Monte Carlo is used. Comparison of separate univariate response models to the bivariate response models was undertaken. Our methods are demonstrated on the smoking cessation clinical trial dataset, and properties of our approach are examined through extensive simulation studies. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.
Multivariable control system for dynamic PEM fuel cell model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tanislav, Vasile; Carcadea, Elena; Capris, Catalin; Culcer, Mihai; Raceanu, Mircea
2010-01-01
Full text: The main objective of this work was to develop a multivariable control system of robust type for a PEM fuel cells assembly. The system will be used in static and mobile applications for different values of power, generated by a fuel cell assembly of up to 10 kW. Intermediate steps were accomplished: a study of a multivariable control strategy for a PEM fuel cell assembly; a mathematic modeling of mass and heat transfer inside of fuel cell assembly, defining the response function to hydrogen and oxygen/air mass flow and inlet pressure changes; a testing stand for fuel cell assembly; experimental determinations of transient response for PEM fuel cell assembly, and more others. To define the multivariable control system for a PEM fuel cell assembly the parameters describing the system were established. Also, there were defined the generic mass and energy balance equations as functions of derivative of m i , in and m i , out , representing the mass going into and out from the fuel cell, while Q in is the enthalpy and Q out is the enthalpy of the unused reactant gases and heat produced by the product, Q dis is the heat dissipated to the surroundings, Q c is the heat taken away from the stack by active cooling and W el is the electricity generated. (authors)
Multivariate moment closure techniques for stochastic kinetic models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lakatos, Eszter, E-mail: e.lakatos13@imperial.ac.uk; Ale, Angelique; Kirk, Paul D. W.; Stumpf, Michael P. H., E-mail: m.stumpf@imperial.ac.uk [Department of Life Sciences, Centre for Integrative Systems Biology and Bioinformatics, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom)
2015-09-07
Stochastic effects dominate many chemical and biochemical processes. Their analysis, however, can be computationally prohibitively expensive and a range of approximation schemes have been proposed to lighten the computational burden. These, notably the increasingly popular linear noise approximation and the more general moment expansion methods, perform well for many dynamical regimes, especially linear systems. At higher levels of nonlinearity, it comes to an interplay between the nonlinearities and the stochastic dynamics, which is much harder to capture correctly by such approximations to the true stochastic processes. Moment-closure approaches promise to address this problem by capturing higher-order terms of the temporally evolving probability distribution. Here, we develop a set of multivariate moment-closures that allows us to describe the stochastic dynamics of nonlinear systems. Multivariate closure captures the way that correlations between different molecular species, induced by the reaction dynamics, interact with stochastic effects. We use multivariate Gaussian, gamma, and lognormal closure and illustrate their use in the context of two models that have proved challenging to the previous attempts at approximating stochastic dynamics: oscillations in p53 and Hes1. In addition, we consider a larger system, Erk-mediated mitogen-activated protein kinases signalling, where conventional stochastic simulation approaches incur unacceptably high computational costs.
Improving the realism of hydrologic model through multivariate parameter estimation
Rakovec, Oldrich; Kumar, Rohini; Attinger, Sabine; Samaniego, Luis
2017-04-01
Increased availability and quality of near real-time observations should improve understanding of predictive skills of hydrological models. Recent studies have shown the limited capability of river discharge data alone to adequately constrain different components of distributed model parameterizations. In this study, the GRACE satellite-based total water storage (TWS) anomaly is used to complement the discharge data with an aim to improve the fidelity of mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM) through multivariate parameter estimation. The study is conducted in 83 European basins covering a wide range of hydro-climatic regimes. The model parameterization complemented with the TWS anomalies leads to statistically significant improvements in (1) discharge simulations during low-flow period, and (2) evapotranspiration estimates which are evaluated against independent (FLUXNET) data. Overall, there is no significant deterioration in model performance for the discharge simulations when complemented by information from the TWS anomalies. However, considerable changes in the partitioning of precipitation into runoff components are noticed by in-/exclusion of TWS during the parameter estimation. A cross-validation test carried out to assess the transferability and robustness of the calibrated parameters to other locations further confirms the benefit of complementary TWS data. In particular, the evapotranspiration estimates show more robust performance when TWS data are incorporated during the parameter estimation, in comparison with the benchmark model constrained against discharge only. This study highlights the value for incorporating multiple data sources during parameter estimation to improve the overall realism of hydrologic model and its applications over large domains. Rakovec, O., Kumar, R., Attinger, S. and Samaniego, L. (2016): Improving the realism of hydrologic model functioning through multivariate parameter estimation. Water Resour. Res., 52, http://dx.doi.org/10
Music Genre Classification using the multivariate AR feature integration model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ahrendt, Peter; Meng, Anders
2005-01-01
Music genre classification systems are normally build as a feature extraction module followed by a classifier. The features are often short-time features with time frames of 10-30ms, although several characteristics of music require larger time scales. Thus, larger time frames are needed to take...... informative decisions about musical genre. For the MIREX music genre contest several authors derive long time features based either on statistical moments and/or temporal structure in the short time features. In our contribution we model a segment (1.2 s) of short time features (texture) using a multivariate...
Forecasting German Car Sales Using Google Data and Multivariate Models
Fantazzini, Dean; Toktamysova, Zhamal
2015-01-01
Long-term forecasts are of key importance for the car industry due to the lengthy period of time required for the development and production processes. With this in mind, this paper proposes new multivariate models to forecast monthly car sales data using economic variables and Google online search data. An out-of-sample forecasting comparison with forecast horizons up to 2 years ahead was implemented using the monthly sales of ten car brands in Germany for the period from 2001M1 to 2014M6. M...
Preference learning with evolutionary Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Abou-Zleikha, Mohamed; Shaker, Noor; Christensen, Mads Græsbøll
2015-01-01
This paper introduces a novel approach for pairwise preference learning through combining an evolutionary method with Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS). Collecting users' feedback through pairwise preferences is recommended over other ranking approaches as this method is more appealing...... for function approximation as well as being relatively easy to interpret. MARS models are evolved based on their efficiency in learning pairwise data. The method is tested on two datasets that collectively provide pairwise preference data of five cognitive states expressed by users. The method is analysed...
Clustering Multivariate Time Series Using Hidden Markov Models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shima Ghassempour
2014-03-01
Full Text Available In this paper we describe an algorithm for clustering multivariate time series with variables taking both categorical and continuous values. Time series of this type are frequent in health care, where they represent the health trajectories of individuals. The problem is challenging because categorical variables make it difficult to define a meaningful distance between trajectories. We propose an approach based on Hidden Markov Models (HMMs, where we first map each trajectory into an HMM, then define a suitable distance between HMMs and finally proceed to cluster the HMMs with a method based on a distance matrix. We test our approach on a simulated, but realistic, data set of 1,255 trajectories of individuals of age 45 and over, on a synthetic validation set with known clustering structure, and on a smaller set of 268 trajectories extracted from the longitudinal Health and Retirement Survey. The proposed method can be implemented quite simply using standard packages in R and Matlab and may be a good candidate for solving the difficult problem of clustering multivariate time series with categorical variables using tools that do not require advanced statistic knowledge, and therefore are accessible to a wide range of researchers.
Multivariate Frequency-Severity Regression Models in Insurance
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Edward W. Frees
2016-02-01
Full Text Available In insurance and related industries including healthcare, it is common to have several outcome measures that the analyst wishes to understand using explanatory variables. For example, in automobile insurance, an accident may result in payments for damage to one’s own vehicle, damage to another party’s vehicle, or personal injury. It is also common to be interested in the frequency of accidents in addition to the severity of the claim amounts. This paper synthesizes and extends the literature on multivariate frequency-severity regression modeling with a focus on insurance industry applications. Regression models for understanding the distribution of each outcome continue to be developed yet there now exists a solid body of literature for the marginal outcomes. This paper contributes to this body of literature by focusing on the use of a copula for modeling the dependence among these outcomes; a major advantage of this tool is that it preserves the body of work established for marginal models. We illustrate this approach using data from the Wisconsin Local Government Property Insurance Fund. This fund offers insurance protection for (i property; (ii motor vehicle; and (iii contractors’ equipment claims. In addition to several claim types and frequency-severity components, outcomes can be further categorized by time and space, requiring complex dependency modeling. We find significant dependencies for these data; specifically, we find that dependencies among lines are stronger than the dependencies between the frequency and average severity within each line.
Hidden Markov latent variable models with multivariate longitudinal data.
Song, Xinyuan; Xia, Yemao; Zhu, Hongtu
2017-03-01
Cocaine addiction is chronic and persistent, and has become a major social and health problem in many countries. Existing studies have shown that cocaine addicts often undergo episodic periods of addiction to, moderate dependence on, or swearing off cocaine. Given its reversible feature, cocaine use can be formulated as a stochastic process that transits from one state to another, while the impacts of various factors, such as treatment received and individuals' psychological problems on cocaine use, may vary across states. This article develops a hidden Markov latent variable model to study multivariate longitudinal data concerning cocaine use from a California Civil Addict Program. The proposed model generalizes conventional latent variable models to allow bidirectional transition between cocaine-addiction states and conventional hidden Markov models to allow latent variables and their dynamic interrelationship. We develop a maximum-likelihood approach, along with a Monte Carlo expectation conditional maximization (MCECM) algorithm, to conduct parameter estimation. The asymptotic properties of the parameter estimates and statistics for testing the heterogeneity of model parameters are investigated. The finite sample performance of the proposed methodology is demonstrated by simulation studies. The application to cocaine use study provides insights into the prevention of cocaine use. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.
Optimisation of Marine Boilers using Model-based Multivariable Control
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Solberg, Brian
Traditionally, marine boilers have been controlled using classical single loop controllers. To optimise marine boiler performance, reduce new installation time and minimise the physical dimensions of these large steel constructions, a more comprehensive and coherent control strategy is needed....... This research deals with the application of advanced control to a specific class of marine boilers combining well-known design methods for multivariable systems. This thesis presents contributions for modelling and control of the one-pass smoke tube marine boilers as well as for hybrid systems control. Much...... of the focus has been directed towards water level control which is complicated by the nature of the disturbances acting on the system as well as by low frequency sensor noise. This focus was motivated by an estimated large potential to minimise the boiler geometry by reducing water level fluctuations...
Production optimisation in the petrochemical industry by hierarchical multivariate modelling
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Andersson, Magnus; Furusjoe, Erik; Jansson, Aasa
2004-06-01
This project demonstrates the advantages of applying hierarchical multivariate modelling in the petrochemical industry in order to increase knowledge of the total process. The models indicate possible ways to optimise the process regarding the use of energy and raw material, which is directly linked to the environmental impact of the process. The refinery of Nynaes Refining AB (Goeteborg, Sweden) has acted as a demonstration site in this project. The models developed for the demonstration site resulted in: Detection of an unknown process disturbance and suggestions of possible causes; Indications on how to increase the yield in combination with energy savings; The possibility to predict product quality from on-line process measurements, making the results available at a higher frequency than customary laboratory analysis; Quantification of the gradually lowered efficiency of heat transfer in the furnace and increased fuel consumption as an effect of soot build-up on the furnace coils; Increased knowledge of the relation between production rate and the efficiency of the heat exchangers. This report is one of two reports from the project. It contains a technical discussion of the result with some degree of detail. A shorter and more easily accessible report is also available, see IVL report B1586-A.
Multivariate Birnbaum-Saunders Distributions: Modelling and Applications
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Robert G. Aykroyd
2018-03-01
Full Text Available Since its origins and numerous applications in material science, the Birnbaum–Saunders family of distributions has now found widespread uses in some areas of the applied sciences such as agriculture, environment and medicine, as well as in quality control, among others. It is able to model varied data behaviour and hence provides a flexible alternative to the most usual distributions. The family includes Birnbaum–Saunders and log-Birnbaum–Saunders distributions in univariate and multivariate versions. There are now well-developed methods for estimation and diagnostics that allow in-depth analyses. This paper gives a detailed review of existing methods and of relevant literature, introducing properties and theoretical results in a systematic way. To emphasise the range of suitable applications, full analyses are included of examples based on regression and diagnostics in material science, spatial data modelling in agricultural engineering and control charts for environmental monitoring. However, potential future uses in new areas such as business, economics, finance and insurance are also discussed. This work is presented to provide a full tool-kit of novel statistical models and methods to encourage other researchers to implement them in these new areas. It is expected that the methods will have the same positive impact in the new areas as they have had elsewhere.
Ising models of strongly coupled biological networks with multivariate interactions
Merchan, Lina; Nemenman, Ilya
2013-03-01
Biological networks consist of a large number of variables that can be coupled by complex multivariate interactions. However, several neuroscience and cell biology experiments have reported that observed statistics of network states can be approximated surprisingly well by maximum entropy models that constrain correlations only within pairs of variables. We would like to verify if this reduction in complexity results from intricacies of biological organization, or if it is a more general attribute of these networks. We generate random networks with p-spin (p > 2) interactions, with N spins and M interaction terms. The probability distribution of the network states is then calculated and approximated with a maximum entropy model based on constraining pairwise spin correlations. Depending on the M/N ratio and the strength of the interaction terms, we observe a transition where the pairwise approximation is very good to a region where it fails. This resembles the sat-unsat transition in constraint satisfaction problems. We argue that the pairwise model works when the number of highly probable states is small. We argue that many biological systems must operate in a strongly constrained regime, and hence we expect the pairwise approximation to be accurate for a wide class of problems. This research has been partially supported by the James S McDonnell Foundation grant No.220020321.
Introduction to multivariate analysis linear and nonlinear modeling
Konishi, Sadanori
2014-01-01
""The presentation is always clear and several examples and figures facilitate an easy understanding of all the techniques. The book can be used as a textbook in advanced undergraduate courses in multivariate analysis, and can represent a valuable reference manual for biologists and engineers working with multivariate datasets.""-Fabio Rapallo, Zentralblatt MATH 1296
Blending process modeling and control by multivariate curve resolution.
Jaumot, J; Igne, B; Anderson, C A; Drennen, J K; de Juan, A
2013-12-15
The application of the Multivariate Curve Resolution by Alternating Least Squares (MCR-ALS) method to model and control blend processes of pharmaceutical formulations is assessed. Within the MCR-ALS framework, different data analysis approaches have been tested depending on the objective of the study, i.e., knowing the effect of different factors in the evolution of the blending process (modeling) or detecting the blend end-point and monitoring the concentration of the different species during and at the end of the process (control). Data analysis has been carried out studying multiple blending runs simultaneously taking advantage of the multiset mode of the MCR-ALS method. During the ALS optimization, natural constraints, such as non-negativity (spectral and concentration directions) have been applied for blend modeling. When blending control is the main purpose, a variant of the MCR-ALS algorithm with correlation constraint in the concentration direction has been additionally used. This constraint incorporates an internal calibration procedure, which relates resolved concentration values (in arbitrary units) with the real reference concentration values in the calibration samples (known references) providing values in real concentration scale in the final MCR-ALS results. Two systems consisting of pharmaceutical mixtures of an active principle (acetaminophen) with two or four excipients have been investigated. In the first case, MCR results allowed the description of the evolution of the individual compounds and the assessment of some physical effects in the blending process. In the second case, MCR analysis allowed the detection of the end-point of the process and the assessment of the effects linked to variations in the concentration level of the compounds. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Multivariable parametric cost model for space and ground telescopes
Stahl, H. Philip; Henrichs, Todd
2016-09-01
Parametric cost models can be used by designers and project managers to perform relative cost comparisons between major architectural cost drivers and allow high-level design trades; enable cost-benefit analysis for technology development investment; and, provide a basis for estimating total project cost between related concepts. This paper hypothesizes a single model, based on published models and engineering intuition, for both ground and space telescopes: OTA Cost (X) D (1.75 +/- 0.05) λ (-0.5 +/- 0.25) T-0.25 e (-0.04) Y Specific findings include: space telescopes cost 50X to 100X more ground telescopes; diameter is the most important CER; cost is reduced by approximately 50% every 20 years (presumably because of technology advance and process improvements); and, for space telescopes, cost associated with wavelength performance is balanced by cost associated with operating temperature. Finally, duplication only reduces cost for the manufacture of identical systems (i.e. multiple aperture sparse arrays or interferometers). And, while duplication does reduce the cost of manufacturing the mirrors of segmented primary mirror, this cost savings does not appear to manifest itself in the final primary mirror assembly (presumably because the structure for a segmented mirror is more complicated than for a monolithic mirror).
Xuan Chi; Barry Goodwin
2012-01-01
Spatial and temporal relationships among agricultural prices have been an important topic of applied research for many years. Such research is used to investigate the performance of markets and to examine linkages up and down the marketing chain. This research has empirically evaluated price linkages by using correlation and regression models and, later, linear and...
Multivariate models to classify Tuscan virgin olive oils by zone.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alessandri, Stefano
1999-10-01
Full Text Available In order to study and classify Tuscan virgin olive oils, 179 samples were collected. They were obtained from drupes harvested during the first half of November, from three different zones of the Region. The sampling was repeated for 5 years. Fatty acids, phytol, aliphatic and triterpenic alcohols, triterpenic dialcohols, sterols, squalene and tocopherols were analyzed. A subset of variables was considered. They were selected in a preceding work as the most effective and reliable, from the univariate point of view. The analytical data were transformed (except for the cycloartenol to compensate annual variations, the mean related to the East zone was subtracted from each value, within each year. Univariate three-class models were calculated and further variables discarded. Then multivariate three-zone models were evaluated, including phytol (that was always selected and all the combinations of palmitic, palmitoleic and oleic acid, tetracosanol, cycloartenol and squalene. Models including from two to seven variables were studied. The best model shows by-zone classification errors less than 40%, by-zone within-year classification errors that are less than 45% and a global classification error equal to 30%. This model includes phytol, palmitic acid, tetracosanol and cycloartenol.
Para estudiar y clasificar aceites de oliva vírgenes Toscanos, se utilizaron 179 muestras, que fueron obtenidas de frutos recolectados durante la primera mitad de Noviembre, de tres zonas diferentes de la Región. El muestreo fue repetido durante 5 años. Se analizaron ácidos grasos, fitol, alcoholes alifáticos y triterpénicos, dialcoholes triterpénicos, esteroles, escualeno y tocoferoles. Se consideró un subconjunto de variables que fueron seleccionadas en un trabajo anterior como el más efectivo y fiable, desde el punto de vista univariado. Los datos analíticos se transformaron (excepto para el cicloartenol para compensar las variaciones anuales, rest
Multi-variable port Hamiltonian model of piezoelectric material
Macchelli, A.; Macchelli, Alessandro; van der Schaft, Arjan; Melchiorri, Claudio
2004-01-01
In this paper, the dynamics of a piezoelectric material is presented within the new framework of multi-variable distributed port Hamiltonian systems. This class of infinite dimensional system is quite general, thus allowing the description of several physical phenomena, such as heat conduction,
Multi-variable Port Hamiltonian Model of Piezoelectric Material
Macchelli, Alessandro; Schaft, Arjan J. van der; Melchiorri, Claudio
2004-01-01
In this paper, the dynamics of a piezoelectric material is presented within the new framework of multi-variable distributed port Hamiltonian systems. This class of infinite dimensional system is quite general, thus allowing the description of several physical phenomena, such as heat conduction,
Optimisation of Marine Boilers using Model-based Multivariable Control
Solberg, Brian
2008-01-01
Traditionally, marine boilers have been controlled using classical single loop controllers. To optimise marine boiler performance, reduce new installation time and minimise the physical dimensions of these large steel constructions, a more comprehensive and coherent control strategy is needed. This research deals with the application of advanced control to a specific class of marine boilers combining well-known design methods for multivariable systems.This thesis presents contributions for mo...
Joint density of eigenvalues in spiked multivariate models.
Dharmawansa, Prathapasinghe; Johnstone, Iain M
2014-01-01
The classical methods of multivariate analysis are based on the eigenvalues of one or two sample covariance matrices. In many applications of these methods, for example to high dimensional data, it is natural to consider alternative hypotheses which are a low rank departure from the null hypothesis. For rank one alternatives, this note provides a representation for the joint eigenvalue density in terms of a single contour integral. This will be of use for deriving approximate distributions for likelihood ratios and 'linear' statistics used in testing.
Landrum, C.; Castrignanò, A.; Mueller, T.; Zourarakis, D.; Zhu, J.
2013-12-01
It is important to assess soil moisture to develop strategies to better manage its availability and use. At the landscape scale, soil moisture distribution derives from an integration of hydrologic, pedologic and geomorphic processes that cause soil moisture variability (SMV) to be time, space, and scale-dependent. Traditional methods to assess SMV at this scale are often costly, labor intensive, and invasive, which can lead to inadequate sampling density and spatial coverage. Fusing traditional sampling techniques with georeferenced auxiliary sensing technologies, such as geoelectric sensing and LiDAR, provide an alternative approach. Because geoelectric and LiDAR measurements are sensitive to soil properties and terrain features that affect soil moisture variation, they are often employed as auxiliary measures to support less dense direct sampling. Georeferenced proximal sensing acquires rapid, real-time, high resolution data over large spatial extents that is enriched with spatial, temporal and scale-dependent information. Data fusion becomes important when proximal sensing is used in tandem with more sparse direct sampling. Multicollocated factorial cokriging (MFC) is one technique of multivariate geostatistics to fuse multiple data sources collected at different sampling scales to study the spatial characteristics of environmental properties. With MFC sparse soil observations are supported by more densely sampled auxiliary attributes to produce more consistent spatial descriptions of scale-dependent parameters affecting SMV. This study uses high resolution geoelectric and LiDAR data as auxiliary measures to support direct soil sampling (n=127) over a 40 hectare Central Kentucky (USA) landscape. Shallow and deep apparent electrical resistivity (ERa) were measured using a Veris 3100 in tandem with soil moisture sampling on three separate dates with ascending soil moisture contents ranging from plant wilting point to field capacity. Terrain features were produced
Multivariate model of female black bear habitat use for a Geographic Information System
Clark, Joseph D.; Dunn, James E.; Smith, Kimberly G.
1993-01-01
Simple univariate statistical techniques may not adequately assess the multidimensional nature of habitats used by wildlife. Thus, we developed a multivariate method to model habitat-use potential using a set of female black bear (Ursus americanus) radio locations and habitat data consisting of forest cover type, elevation, slope, aspect, distance to roads, distance to streams, and forest cover type diversity score in the Ozark Mountains of Arkansas. The model is based on the Mahalanobis distance statistic coupled with Geographic Information System (GIS) technology. That statistic is a measure of dissimilarity and represents a standardized squared distance between a set of sample variates and an ideal based on the mean of variates associated with animal observations. Calculations were made with the GIS to produce a map containing Mahalanobis distance values within each cell on a 60- × 60-m grid. The model identified areas of high habitat use potential that could not otherwise be identified by independent perusal of any single map layer. This technique avoids many pitfalls that commonly affect typical multivariate analyses of habitat use and is a useful tool for habitat manipulation or mitigation to favor terrestrial vertebrates that use habitats on a landscape scale.
Emilie B. Henderson; Janet L. Ohmann; Matthew J. Gregory; Heather M. Roberts; Harold S.J. Zald
2014-01-01
Landscape management and conservation planning require maps of vegetation composition and structure over large regions. Species distribution models (SDMs) are often used for individual species, but projects mapping multiple species are rarer. We compare maps of plant community composition assembled by stacking results from many SDMs with multivariate maps constructed...
Modelling and Multi-Variable Control of Refrigeration Systems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Larsen, Lars Finn Slot; Holm, J. R.
2003-01-01
In this paper a dynamic model of a 1:1 refrigeration system is presented. The main modelling effort has been concentrated on a lumped parameter model of a shell and tube condenser. The model has shown good resemblance with experimental data from a test rig, regarding as well the static as the dyn......In this paper a dynamic model of a 1:1 refrigeration system is presented. The main modelling effort has been concentrated on a lumped parameter model of a shell and tube condenser. The model has shown good resemblance with experimental data from a test rig, regarding as well the static...
New aging properties of the Clayton-Oakes model based on multivariate dispersion
Arias-Nicolás, José Pablo
2010-01-01
In this work we present a recent definition of Multivariate Increasing Failure Rate (MIFR) based on the concept of multivariate dispersion. This new definition is an extension of the univariate characterization of IFR distributions under dispersive ordering of the residual lifetimes. We apply this definition to the Clayton-Oakes model. In particular, we provide several conditions to order in the multivariate dispersion sense the residual lifetimes of random vectors with a dependence structure...
M. Asai (Manabu); M.J. McAleer (Michael)
2016-01-01
textabstractThe paper derives a Multivariate Asymmetric Long Memory conditional volatility model with Exogenous Variables (X), or the MALMX model, with dynamic conditional correlations, appropriate regularity conditions, and associated asymptotic theory. This enables checking of internal consistency
Modelling world gold prices and USD foreign exchange relationship using multivariate GARCH model
Ping, Pung Yean; Ahmad, Maizah Hura Binti
2014-12-01
World gold price is a popular investment commodity. The series have often been modeled using univariate models. The objective of this paper is to show that there is a co-movement between gold price and USD foreign exchange rate. Using the effect of the USD foreign exchange rate on the gold price, a model that can be used to forecast future gold prices is developed. For this purpose, the current paper proposes a multivariate GARCH (Bivariate GARCH) model. Using daily prices of both series from 01.01.2000 to 05.05.2014, a causal relation between the two series understudied are found and a bivariate GARCH model is produced.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Baskaran, Ramesh; Managi, Shunsuke; Bendig, Mirko
2013-01-01
The growing demand for electricity in New Zealand has led to the construction of new hydro-dams or power stations that have had environmental, social and cultural effects. These effects may drive increases in electricity prices, as such prices reflect the cost of running existing power stations as well as building new ones. This study uses Canterbury and Central Otago as case studies because both regions face similar issues in building new hydro-dams and ever-increasing electricity prices that will eventually prompt households to buy power at higher prices. One way for households to respond to these price changes is to generate their own electricity through microgeneration technologies (MGT). The objective of this study is to investigate public perception and preferences regarding MGT and to analyze the factors that influence people’s decision to adopt such new technologies in New Zealand. The study uses a multivariate probit approach to examine households’ willingness to adopt any one MGT system or a combination of the MGT systems. Our findings provide valuable information for policy makers and marketers who wish to promote effective microgeneration technologies. - Highlights: ► We examine New Zealand households’ awareness level for microgeneration technologies (MGT) and empirically explore the factors that determine people’s willingness to adopt for MGT. ► The households are interested and willing to adopt the MGT systems. ► Noticeable heterogeneity exists between groups of households in adopting the MGT. ► No significant regional difference exists in promoting solar hot water policies. ► Public and private sectors incentives are important in promoting the MGT
Multivariate Effect Size Estimation: Confidence Interval Construction via Latent Variable Modeling
Raykov, Tenko; Marcoulides, George A.
2010-01-01
A latent variable modeling method is outlined for constructing a confidence interval (CI) of a popular multivariate effect size measure. The procedure uses the conventional multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) setup and is applicable with large samples. The approach provides a population range of plausible values for the proportion of…
Roldán, J. B.; Miranda, E.; González-Cordero, G.; García-Fernández, P.; Romero-Zaliz, R.; González-Rodelas, P.; Aguilera, A. M.; González, M. B.; Jiménez-Molinos, F.
2018-01-01
A multivariate analysis of the parameters that characterize the reset process in Resistive Random Access Memory (RRAM) has been performed. The different correlations obtained can help to shed light on the current components that contribute in the Low Resistance State (LRS) of the technology considered. In addition, a screening method for the Quantum Point Contact (QPC) current component is presented. For this purpose, the second derivative of the current has been obtained using a novel numerical method which allows determining the QPC model parameters. Once the procedure is completed, a whole Resistive Switching (RS) series of thousands of curves is studied by means of a genetic algorithm. The extracted QPC parameter distributions are characterized in depth to get information about the filamentary pathways associated with LRS in the low voltage conduction regime.
Multivariate Hawkes process models of the occurrence of regulatory elements
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Carstensen, L; Sandelin, A; Winther, Ole
2010-01-01
distribution of the occurrences of these TREs along the genome. RESULTS: We present a model of TRE occurrences known as the Hawkes process. We illustrate the use of this model by analyzing two different publically available data sets. We are able to model, in detail, how the occurrence of one TRE is affected....... For each of the two data sets we provide two results: first, a qualitative description of the dependencies among the occurrences of the TREs, and second, quantitative results on the favored or avoided distances between the different TREs. CONCLUSIONS: The Hawkes process is a novel way of modeling the joint...
Evaluation of multivariate calibration models transferred between spectroscopic instruments
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Eskildsen, Carl Emil Aae; Hansen, Per W.; Skov, Thomas
2016-01-01
In a setting where multiple spectroscopic instruments are used for the same measurements it may be convenient to develop the calibration model on a single instrument and then transfer this model to the other instruments. In the ideal scenario, all instruments provide the same predictions for the ......In a setting where multiple spectroscopic instruments are used for the same measurements it may be convenient to develop the calibration model on a single instrument and then transfer this model to the other instruments. In the ideal scenario, all instruments provide the same predictions...
Multivariate Modelling of Extreme Load Combinations for Wind Turbines
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Dimitrov, Nikolay Krasimirov
2015-01-01
We demonstrate a model for estimating the joint probability distribution of two load components acting on a wind turbine blade cross section. The model addresses the problem of modelling the probability distribution of load time histories with large periodic components by dividing the signal...... into a periodic part and a perturbation term, where each part has a known probability distribution. The proposed model shows good agreement with simulated data under stationary conditions, and a design load envelope based on this model is comparable to the load envelope estimated using the standard procedure...... for determining contemporaneous loads. By defining a joint probability distribution and full return-period contours for multiple load components, the suggested procedure gives the possibility for determining the most critical loading direction in a blade cross section, or for carrying out reliability analysis...
Modeling and Control of Multivariable Process Using Intelligent Techniques
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Subathra Balasubramanian
2010-10-01
Full Text Available For nonlinear dynamic systems, the first principles based modeling and control is difficult to implement. In this study, a fuzzy controller and recurrent fuzzy controller are developed for MIMO process. Fuzzy logic controller is a model free controller designed based on the knowledge about the process. In fuzzy controller there are two types of rule-based fuzzy models are available: one the linguistic (Mamdani model and the other is Takagi–Sugeno model. Of these two, Takagi-Sugeno model (TS has attracted most attention. The fuzzy controller application is limited to static processes due to their feedforward structure. But, most of the real-time processes are dynamic and they require the history of input/output data. In order to store the past values a memory unit is needed, which is introduced by the recurrent structure. The proposed recurrent fuzzy structure is used to develop a controller for the two tank heating process. Both controllers are designed and implemented in a real time environment and their performance is compared.
Real estate value prediction using multivariate regression models
Manjula, R.; Jain, Shubham; Srivastava, Sharad; Rajiv Kher, Pranav
2017-11-01
The real estate market is one of the most competitive in terms of pricing and the same tends to vary significantly based on a lot of factors, hence it becomes one of the prime fields to apply the concepts of machine learning to optimize and predict the prices with high accuracy. Therefore in this paper, we present various important features to use while predicting housing prices with good accuracy. We have described regression models, using various features to have lower Residual Sum of Squares error. While using features in a regression model some feature engineering is required for better prediction. Often a set of features (multiple regressions) or polynomial regression (applying a various set of powers in the features) is used for making better model fit. For these models are expected to be susceptible towards over fitting ridge regression is used to reduce it. This paper thus directs to the best application of regression models in addition to other techniques to optimize the result.
Reduced order modelling and predictive control of multivariable ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
Anuj Abraham
2018-03-16
Mar 16, 2018 ... The performance of constraint generalized predictive control scheme is found to be superior to that of the conventional PID controller in terms of overshoot, settling time and performance indices, mainly ISE, IAE and MSE. Keywords. Predictive control; distillation column; reduced order model; dominant pole; ...
Linear models for multivariate, time series, and spatial data
Christensen, Ronald
1991-01-01
This is a companion volume to Plane Answers to Complex Questions: The Theory 0/ Linear Models. It consists of six additional chapters written in the same spirit as the last six chapters of the earlier book. Brief introductions are given to topics related to linear model theory. No attempt is made to give a comprehensive treatment of the topics. Such an effort would be futile. Each chapter is on a topic so broad that an in depth discussion would require a book-Iength treatment. People need to impose structure on the world in order to understand it. There is a limit to the number of unrelated facts that anyone can remem ber. If ideas can be put within a broad, sophisticatedly simple structure, not only are they easier to remember but often new insights become avail able. In fact, sophisticatedly simple models of the world may be the only ones that work. I have often heard Arnold Zellner say that, to the best of his knowledge, this is true in econometrics. The process of modeling is fundamental to understand...
Individual loss reserving with the Multivariate Skew Normal model
Pigeon, M.; Antonio, K.; Denuit, M.
2011-01-01
In general insurance, the evaluation of future cash ows and solvency capital has become increasingly important. To assist in this process, the present paper proposes an individual discrete-time loss re- serving model describing the occurrence, the reporting delay, the timeto the first payment, and
A Multivariate Model of Stakeholder Preference for Lethal Cat Management
Wald, Dara M.; Jacobson, Susan K.
2014-01-01
Identifying stakeholder beliefs and attitudes is critical for resolving management conflicts. Debate over outdoor cat management is often described as a conflict between two groups, environmental advocates and animal welfare advocates, but little is known about the variables predicting differences among these critical stakeholder groups. We administered a mail survey to randomly selected stakeholders representing both of these groups (n = 1,596) in Florida, where contention over the management of outdoor cats has been widespread. We used a structural equation model to evaluate stakeholder intention to support non-lethal management. The cognitive hierarchy model predicted that values influenced beliefs, which predicted general and specific attitudes, which in turn, influenced behavioral intentions. We posited that specific attitudes would mediate the effect of general attitudes, beliefs, and values on management support. Model fit statistics suggested that the final model fit the data well (CFI = 0.94, RMSEA = 0.062). The final model explained 74% of the variance in management support, and positive attitudes toward lethal management (humaneness) had the largest direct effect on management support. Specific attitudes toward lethal management and general attitudes toward outdoor cats mediated the relationship between positive (p<0.05) and negative cat-related impact beliefs (p<0.05) and support for management. These results supported the specificity hypothesis and the use of the cognitive hierarchy to assess stakeholder intention to support non-lethal cat management. Our findings suggest that stakeholders can simultaneously perceive both positive and negative beliefs about outdoor cats, which influence attitudes toward and support for non-lethal management. PMID:24736744
Wind Speed Prediction Using a Univariate ARIMA Model and a Multivariate NARX Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Erasmo Cadenas
2016-02-01
Full Text Available Two on step ahead wind speed forecasting models were compared. A univariate model was developed using a linear autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA. This method’s performance is well studied for a large number of prediction problems. The other is a multivariate model developed using a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous artificial neural network (NARX. This uses the variables: barometric pressure, air temperature, wind direction and solar radiation or relative humidity, as well as delayed wind speed. Both models were developed from two databases from two sites: an hourly average measurements database from La Mata, Oaxaca, Mexico, and a ten minute average measurements database from Metepec, Hidalgo, Mexico. The main objective was to compare the impact of the various meteorological variables on the performance of the multivariate model of wind speed prediction with respect to the high performance univariate linear model. The NARX model gave better results with improvements on the ARIMA model of between 5.5% and 10. 6% for the hourly database and of between 2.3% and 12.8% for the ten minute database for mean absolute error and mean squared error, respectively.
Ultracentrifuge separative power modeling with multivariate regression using covariance matrix
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Migliavacca, Elder
2004-01-01
In this work, the least-squares methodology with covariance matrix is applied to determine a data curve fitting to obtain a performance function for the separative power δU of a ultracentrifuge as a function of variables that are experimentally controlled. The experimental data refer to 460 experiments on the ultracentrifugation process for uranium isotope separation. The experimental uncertainties related with these independent variables are considered in the calculation of the experimental separative power values, determining an experimental data input covariance matrix. The process variables, which significantly influence the δU values are chosen in order to give information on the ultracentrifuge behaviour when submitted to several levels of feed flow rate F, cut θ and product line pressure P p . After the model goodness-of-fit validation, a residual analysis is carried out to verify the assumed basis concerning its randomness and independence and mainly the existence of residual heteroscedasticity with any explained regression model variable. The surface curves are made relating the separative power with the control variables F, θ and P p to compare the fitted model with the experimental data and finally to calculate their optimized values. (author)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
S. M. Barbosa
2006-01-01
Full Text Available This work addresses the autoregressive modelling of sea level time series from TOPEX/Poseidon satellite altimetry mission. Datasets from remote sensing applications are typically very large and correlated both in time and space. Multivariate analysis methods are useful tools to summarise and extract information from such large space-time datasets. Multivariate autoregressive analysis is a generalisation of Principal Oscillation Pattern (POP analysis, widely used in the geosciences for the extraction of dynamical modes by eigen-decomposition of a first order autoregressive model fitted to the multivariate dataset of observations. The extension of the POP methodology to autoregressions of higher order, although increasing the difficulties in estimation, allows one to model a larger class of complex systems. Here, sea level variability in the North Atlantic is modelled by a third order multivariate autoregressive model estimated by stepwise least squares. Eigen-decomposition of the fitted model yields physically-interpretable seasonal modes. The leading autoregressive mode is an annual oscillation and exhibits a very homogeneous spatial structure in terms of amplitude reflecting the large scale coherent behaviour of the annual pattern in the Northern hemisphere. The phase structure reflects the seesaw pattern between the western and eastern regions in the tropical North Atlantic associated with the trade winds regime. The second mode is close to a semi-annual oscillation. Multivariate autoregressive models provide a useful framework for the description of time-varying fields while enclosing a predictive potential.
A Sandwich-Type Standard Error Estimator of SEM Models with Multivariate Time Series
Zhang, Guangjian; Chow, Sy-Miin; Ong, Anthony D.
2011-01-01
Structural equation models are increasingly used as a modeling tool for multivariate time series data in the social and behavioral sciences. Standard error estimators of SEM models, originally developed for independent data, require modifications to accommodate the fact that time series data are inherently dependent. In this article, we extend a…
Exploring the potential of multivariate depth-damage and rainfall-damage models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
van Ootegem, Luc; van Herck, K.; Creten, T.
2018-01-01
In Europe, floods are among the natural catastrophes that cause the largest economic damage. This article explores the potential of two distinct types of multivariate flood damage models: ‘depth-damage’ models and ‘rainfall-damage’ models. We use survey data of 346 Flemish households that were vi...
Multivariate Self-Exciting Threshold Autoregressive Models with eXogenous Input
Peter Martey Addo
2014-01-01
This study defines a multivariate Self--Exciting Threshold Autoregressive with eXogenous input (MSETARX) models and present an estimation procedure for the parameters. The conditions for stationarity of the nonlinear MSETARX models is provided. In particular, the efficiency of an adaptive parameter estimation algorithm and LSE (least squares estimate) algorithm for this class of models is then provided via simulations.
A Multivariate Model for Coastal Water Quality Mapping Using Satellite Remote Sensing Images.
Su, Yuan-Fong; Liou, Jun-Jih; Hou, Ju-Chen; Hung, Wei-Chun; Hsu, Shu-Mei; Lien, Yi-Ting; Su, Ming-Daw; Cheng, Ke-Sheng; Wang, Yeng-Fung
2008-10-10
his study demonstrates the feasibility of coastal water quality mapping using satellite remote sensing images. Water quality sampling campaigns were conducted over a coastal area in northern Taiwan for measurements of three water quality variables including Secchi disk depth, turbidity, and total suspended solids. SPOT satellite images nearly concurrent with the water quality sampling campaigns were also acquired. A spectral reflectance estimation scheme proposed in this study was applied to SPOT multispectral images for estimation of the sea surface reflectance. Two models, univariate and multivariate, for water quality estimation using the sea surface reflectance derived from SPOT images were established. The multivariate model takes into consideration the wavelength-dependent combined effect of individual seawater constituents on the sea surface reflectance and is superior over the univariate model. Finally, quantitative coastal water quality mapping was accomplished by substituting the pixel-specific spectral reflectance into the multivariate water quality estimation model.
Modeling inflation rates and exchange rates in Ghana: application of multivariate GARCH models.
Nortey, Ezekiel Nn; Ngoh, Delali D; Doku-Amponsah, Kwabena; Ofori-Boateng, Kenneth
2015-01-01
This paper was aimed at investigating the volatility and conditional relationship among inflation rates, exchange rates and interest rates as well as to construct a model using multivariate GARCH DCC and BEKK models using Ghana data from January 1990 to December 2013. The study revealed that the cumulative depreciation of the cedi to the US dollar from 1990 to 2013 is 7,010.2% and the yearly weighted depreciation of the cedi to the US dollar for the period is 20.4%. There was evidence that, the fact that inflation rate was stable, does not mean that exchange rates and interest rates are expected to be stable. Rather, when the cedi performs well on the forex, inflation rates and interest rates react positively and become stable in the long run. The BEKK model is robust to modelling and forecasting volatility of inflation rates, exchange rates and interest rates. The DCC model is robust to model the conditional and unconditional correlation among inflation rates, exchange rates and interest rates. The BEKK model, which forecasted high exchange rate volatility for the year 2014, is very robust for modelling the exchange rates in Ghana. The mean equation of the DCC model is also robust to forecast inflation rates in Ghana.
Identification of Civil Engineering Structures using Multivariate ARMAV and RARMAV Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Andersen, P.; Brincker, Rune
This paper presents how to make system identification of civil engineering structures using multivariate auto-regressive moving-average vector (ARMAV) models. Further, the ARMAV technique is extended to a recursive technique (RARMAV). The ARMAV model is used to identify measured stationary data....... The results show the usefulness of the approaches for identification of civil engineering structures excited by natural excitation...
Algorithms for global total least squares modelling of finite multivariable time series
Roorda, Berend
1995-01-01
In this paper we present several algorithms related to the global total least squares (GTLS) modelling of multivariable time series observed over a finite time interval. A GTLS model is a linear, time-invariant finite-dimensional system with a behaviour that has minimal Frobenius distance to a given
Bayesian Modeling of Air Pollution Extremes Using Nested Multivariate Max-Stable Processes
Vettori, Sabrina
2018-03-18
Capturing the potentially strong dependence among the peak concentrations of multiple air pollutants across a spatial region is crucial for assessing the related public health risks. In order to investigate the multivariate spatial dependence properties of air pollution extremes, we introduce a new class of multivariate max-stable processes. Our proposed model admits a hierarchical tree-based formulation, in which the data are conditionally independent given some latent nested $\\\\alpha$-stable random factors. The hierarchical structure facilitates Bayesian inference and offers a convenient and interpretable characterization. We fit this nested multivariate max-stable model to the maxima of air pollution concentrations and temperatures recorded at a number of sites in the Los Angeles area, showing that the proposed model succeeds in capturing their complex tail dependence structure.
Chen, Xiaohong; Fan, Yanqin; Pouzo, Demian; Ying, Zhiliang
2010-07-01
We study estimation and model selection of semiparametric models of multivariate survival functions for censored data, which are characterized by possibly misspecified parametric copulas and nonparametric marginal survivals. We obtain the consistency and root- n asymptotic normality of a two-step copula estimator to the pseudo-true copula parameter value according to KLIC, and provide a simple consistent estimator of its asymptotic variance, allowing for a first-step nonparametric estimation of the marginal survivals. We establish the asymptotic distribution of the penalized pseudo-likelihood ratio statistic for comparing multiple semiparametric multivariate survival functions subject to copula misspecification and general censorship. An empirical application is provided.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rombouts, Jeroen V.K.; Stentoft, Lars; Violante, Francesco
innovation for a Laplace innovation assumption improves the pricing in a smaller way. Apart from investigating directly the value of model sophistication in terms of dollar losses, we also use the model condence set approach to statistically infer the set of models that delivers the best pricing performance.......We assess the predictive accuracy of a large number of multivariate volatility models in terms of pricing options on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. We measure the value of model sophistication in terms of dollar losses by considering a set 248 multivariate models that differer...... in their specification of the conditional variance, conditional correlation, and innovation distribution. All models belong to the dynamic conditional correlation class which is particularly suited because it allows to consistently estimate the risk neutral dynamics with a manageable computational effort in relatively...
Modeling information technology effectiveness
Aleksander Lotko
2005-01-01
Numerous cases of systems not bringing expected results cause that investments in information technology are treated more and more carefully and are not privileged amongst others. This gives rise to the need for applying costs–effect calculations. Modeling IT effectiveness is a procedure which helps to bring system complexity under control. By using proper measures it is possible to perform an objective investment appraisal for projects under consideration. In the paper, a framework of method...
Simulation research on multivariable fuzzy model predictive control of nuclear power plant
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Su Jie
2012-01-01
To improve the dynamic control capabilities of the nuclear power plant, the algorithm of the multivariable nonlinear predictive control based on the fuzzy model was applied in the main parameters control of the nuclear power plant, including control structure and the design of controller in the base of expounding the math model of the turbine and the once-through steam generator. The simulation results show that the respond of the change of the gas turbine speed and the steam pressure under the algorithm of multivariable fuzzy model predictive control is faster than that under the PID control algorithm, and the output value of the gas turbine speed and the steam pressure under the PID control algorithm is 3%-5% more than that under the algorithm of multi-variable fuzzy model predictive control. So it shows that the algorithm of multi-variable fuzzy model predictive control can control the output of the main parameters of the nuclear power plant well and get better control effect. (author)
Shen, Yanna; Cooper, Gregory F
2012-09-01
This paper investigates Bayesian modeling of known and unknown causes of events in the context of disease-outbreak detection. We introduce a multivariate Bayesian approach that models multiple evidential features of every person in the population. This approach models and detects (1) known diseases (e.g., influenza and anthrax) by using informative prior probabilities and (2) unknown diseases (e.g., a new, highly contagious respiratory virus that has never been seen before) by using relatively non-informative prior probabilities. We report the results of simulation experiments which support that this modeling method can improve the detection of new disease outbreaks in a population. A contribution of this paper is that it introduces a multivariate Bayesian approach for jointly modeling both known and unknown causes of events. Such modeling has general applicability in domains where the space of known causes is incomplete. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
The NLS-Based Nonlinear Grey Multivariate Model for Forecasting Pollutant Emissions in China
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ling-Ling Pei
2018-03-01
Full Text Available The relationship between pollutant discharge and economic growth has been a major research focus in environmental economics. To accurately estimate the nonlinear change law of China’s pollutant discharge with economic growth, this study establishes a transformed nonlinear grey multivariable (TNGM (1, N model based on the nonlinear least square (NLS method. The Gauss–Seidel iterative algorithm was used to solve the parameters of the TNGM (1, N model based on the NLS basic principle. This algorithm improves the precision of the model by continuous iteration and constantly approximating the optimal regression coefficient of the nonlinear model. In our empirical analysis, the traditional grey multivariate model GM (1, N and the NLS-based TNGM (1, N models were respectively adopted to forecast and analyze the relationship among wastewater discharge per capita (WDPC, and per capita emissions of SO2 and dust, alongside GDP per capita in China during the period 1996–2015. Results indicated that the NLS algorithm is able to effectively help the grey multivariable model identify the nonlinear relationship between pollutant discharge and economic growth. The results show that the NLS-based TNGM (1, N model presents greater precision when forecasting WDPC, SO2 emissions and dust emissions per capita, compared to the traditional GM (1, N model; WDPC indicates a growing tendency aligned with the growth of GDP, while the per capita emissions of SO2 and dust reduce accordingly.
First principles dynamic modeling and multivariable control of a cryogenic distillation process
Betlem, B.H.L.; Roffel, B.; de Ruijter, J.A.F.
2000-01-01
In order to investigate the feasibility of constrained multivariable control of a heat-integrated cryogenic distillation process, a rigorous first principles dynamic model was developed and tested against a limited number of experiments. It was found that the process variables showed a large amount
The Dirichlet-Multinomial Model for Multivariate Randomized Response Data and Small Samples
Avetisyan, Marianna; Fox, Jean-Paul
2012-01-01
In survey sampling the randomized response (RR) technique can be used to obtain truthful answers to sensitive questions. Although the individual answers are masked due to the RR technique, individual (sensitive) response rates can be estimated when observing multivariate response data. The beta-binomial model for binary RR data will be generalized…
Tracking Problem Solving by Multivariate Pattern Analysis and Hidden Markov Model Algorithms
Anderson, John R.
2012-01-01
Multivariate pattern analysis can be combined with Hidden Markov Model algorithms to track the second-by-second thinking as people solve complex problems. Two applications of this methodology are illustrated with a data set taken from children as they interacted with an intelligent tutoring system for algebra. The first "mind reading" application…
Multivariate Radiological-Based Models for the Prediction of Future Knee Pain: Data from the OAI
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jorge I. Galván-Tejada
2015-01-01
Full Text Available In this work, the potential of X-ray based multivariate prognostic models to predict the onset of chronic knee pain is presented. Using X-rays quantitative image assessments of joint-space-width (JSW and paired semiquantitative central X-ray scores from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI, a case-control study is presented. The pain assessments of the right knee at the baseline and the 60-month visits were used to screen for case/control subjects. Scores were analyzed at the time of pain incidence (T-0, the year prior incidence (T-1, and two years before pain incidence (T-2. Multivariate models were created by a cross validated elastic-net regularized generalized linear models feature selection tool. Univariate differences between cases and controls were reported by AUC, C-statistics, and ODDs ratios. Univariate analysis indicated that the medial osteophytes were significantly more prevalent in cases than controls: C-stat 0.62, 0.62, and 0.61, at T-0, T-1, and T-2, respectively. The multivariate JSW models significantly predicted pain: AUC = 0.695, 0.623, and 0.620, at T-0, T-1, and T-2, respectively. Semiquantitative multivariate models predicted paint with C-stat = 0.671, 0.648, and 0.645 at T-0, T-1, and T-2, respectively. Multivariate models derived from plain X-ray radiography assessments may be used to predict subjects that are at risk of developing knee pain.
Golay, Jean; Kanevski, Mikhaïl
2013-04-01
The present research deals with the exploration and modeling of a complex dataset of 200 measurement points of sediment pollution by heavy metals in Lake Geneva. The fundamental idea was to use multivariate Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) along with geostatistical models and tools in order to improve the accuracy and the interpretability of data modeling. The results obtained with ANN were compared to those of traditional geostatistical algorithms like ordinary (co)kriging and (co)kriging with an external drift. Exploratory data analysis highlighted a great variety of relationships (i.e. linear, non-linear, independence) between the 11 variables of the dataset (i.e. Cadmium, Mercury, Zinc, Copper, Titanium, Chromium, Vanadium and Nickel as well as the spatial coordinates of the measurement points and their depth). Then, exploratory spatial data analysis (i.e. anisotropic variography, local spatial correlations and moving window statistics) was carried out. It was shown that the different phenomena to be modeled were characterized by high spatial anisotropies, complex spatial correlation structures and heteroscedasticity. A feature selection procedure based on General Regression Neural Networks (GRNN) was also applied to create subsets of variables enabling to improve the predictions during the modeling phase. The basic modeling was conducted using a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) which is a workhorse of ANN. MLP models are robust and highly flexible tools which can incorporate in a nonlinear manner different kind of high-dimensional information. In the present research, the input layer was made of either two (spatial coordinates) or three neurons (when depth as auxiliary information could possibly capture an underlying trend) and the output layer was composed of one (univariate MLP) to eight neurons corresponding to the heavy metals of the dataset (multivariate MLP). MLP models with three input neurons can be referred to as Artificial Neural Networks with EXternal
Sales, F; Rius, A; Callao, M P; Rius, F X
2000-06-21
A multivariate standardization procedure was used to extend the lifetime of a multivariate partial least squares (PLS) calibration model for determining chromium in tanning sewage. The Kennard/Stone algorithm was used to select the transfer samples and the F-test was used to decide whether slope/bias correction (SBC) or piecewise direct standardization (PDS) had to be applied. Special attention was paid to the transfer samples since the process can be invalidated if samples are selected which behave anomalously. The results of the F-test were extremely sensitive to heterogeneity in the transfer set. In these cases, it should be taken as an interpretation tool.
Multivariate time series modeling of short-term system scale irrigation demand
Perera, Kushan C.; Western, Andrew W.; George, Biju; Nawarathna, Bandara
2015-12-01
Travel time limits the ability of irrigation system operators to react to short-term irrigation demand fluctuations that result from variations in weather, including very hot periods and rainfall events, as well as the various other pressures and opportunities that farmers face. Short-term system-wide irrigation demand forecasts can assist in system operation. Here we developed a multivariate time series (ARMAX) model to forecast irrigation demands with respect to aggregated service points flows (IDCGi, ASP) and off take regulator flows (IDCGi, OTR) based across 5 command areas, which included area covered under four irrigation channels and the study area. These command area specific ARMAX models forecast 1-5 days ahead daily IDCGi, ASP and IDCGi, OTR using the real time flow data recorded at the service points and the uppermost regulators and observed meteorological data collected from automatic weather stations. The model efficiency and the predictive performance were quantified using the root mean squared error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NSE), anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) and mean square skill score (MSSS). During the evaluation period, NSE for IDCGi, ASP and IDCGi, OTR across 5 command areas were ranged 0.98-0.78. These models were capable of generating skillful forecasts (MSSS ⩾ 0.5 and ACC ⩾ 0.6) of IDCGi, ASP and IDCGi, OTR for all 5 lead days and IDCGi, ASP and IDCGi, OTR forecasts were better than using the long term monthly mean irrigation demand. Overall these predictive performance from the ARMAX time series models were higher than almost all the previous studies we are aware. Further, IDCGi, ASP and IDCGi, OTR forecasts have improved the operators' ability to react for near future irrigation demand fluctuations as the developed ARMAX time series models were self-adaptive to reflect the short-term changes in the irrigation demand with respect to various pressures and opportunities that farmers' face, such as
Du, Wen; Chen, Zeng-Ping; Zhong, Li-Jing; Wang, Shu-Xia; Yu, Ru-Qin; Nordon, Alison; Littlejohn, David; Holden, Megan
2011-03-25
In quantitative on-line/in-line monitoring of chemical and bio-chemical processes using spectroscopic instruments, multivariate calibration models are indispensable for the extraction of chemical information from complex spectroscopic measurements. The development of reliable multivariate calibration models is generally time-consuming and costly. Therefore, once a reliable multivariate calibration model is established, it is expected to be used for an extended period. However, any change in the instrumental response or variations in the measurement conditions can render a multivariate calibration model invalid. In this contribution, a new method, spectral space transformation (SST), has been developed to maintain the predictive abilities of multivariate calibration models when the spectrometer or measurement conditions are altered. SST tries to eliminate the spectral differences induced by the changes in instruments or measurement conditions through the transformation between two spectral spaces spanned by the corresponding spectra of a subset of standardization samples measured on two instruments or under two sets of experimental conditions. The performance of the method has been tested on two data sets comprising NIR and MIR spectra. The experimental results show that SST can achieve satisfactory analyte predictions from spectroscopic measurements subject to spectrometer/probe alteration, when only a few standardization samples are used. Compared with the existing popular methods designed for the same purpose, i.e. global PLS, univariate slope and bias correction (SBC) and piecewise direct standardization (PDS), SST has the advantages of implementation simplicity, wider applicability and better performance in terms of predictive accuracy. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Improvement of a Robotic Manipulator Model Based on Multivariate Residual Modeling
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Serge Gale
2017-07-01
Full Text Available A new method is presented for extending a dynamic model of a six degrees of freedom robotic manipulator. A non-linear multivariate calibration of input–output training data from several typical motion trajectories is carried out with the aim of predicting the model systematic output error at time (t + 1 from known input reference up till and including time (t. A new partial least squares regression (PLSR based method, nominal PLSR with interactions was developed and used to handle, unmodelled non-linearities. The performance of the new method is compared with least squares (LS. Different cross-validation schemes were compared in order to assess the sampling of the state space based on conventional trajectories. The method developed in the paper can be used as fault monitoring mechanism and early warning system for sensor failure. The results show that the suggested methods improves trajectory tracking performance of the robotic manipulator by extending the initial dynamic model of the manipulator.
Multi-variable flood damage modelling with limited data using supervised learning approaches
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D. Wagenaar
2017-09-01
Full Text Available Flood damage assessment is usually done with damage curves only dependent on the water depth. Several recent studies have shown that supervised learning techniques applied to a multi-variable data set can produce significantly better flood damage estimates. However, creating and applying a multi-variable flood damage model requires an extensive data set, which is rarely available, and this is currently holding back the widespread application of these techniques. In this paper we enrich a data set of residential building and contents damage from the Meuse flood of 1993 in the Netherlands, to make it suitable for multi-variable flood damage assessment. Results from 2-D flood simulations are used to add information on flow velocity, flood duration and the return period to the data set, and cadastre data are used to add information on building characteristics. Next, several statistical approaches are used to create multi-variable flood damage models, including regression trees, bagging regression trees, random forest, and a Bayesian network. Validation on data points from a test set shows that the enriched data set in combination with the supervised learning techniques delivers a 20 % reduction in the mean absolute error, compared to a simple model only based on the water depth, despite several limitations of the enriched data set. We find that with our data set, the tree-based methods perform better than the Bayesian network.
Multi-variable flood damage modelling with limited data using supervised learning approaches
Wagenaar, Dennis; de Jong, Jurjen; Bouwer, Laurens M.
2017-09-01
Flood damage assessment is usually done with damage curves only dependent on the water depth. Several recent studies have shown that supervised learning techniques applied to a multi-variable data set can produce significantly better flood damage estimates. However, creating and applying a multi-variable flood damage model requires an extensive data set, which is rarely available, and this is currently holding back the widespread application of these techniques. In this paper we enrich a data set of residential building and contents damage from the Meuse flood of 1993 in the Netherlands, to make it suitable for multi-variable flood damage assessment. Results from 2-D flood simulations are used to add information on flow velocity, flood duration and the return period to the data set, and cadastre data are used to add information on building characteristics. Next, several statistical approaches are used to create multi-variable flood damage models, including regression trees, bagging regression trees, random forest, and a Bayesian network. Validation on data points from a test set shows that the enriched data set in combination with the supervised learning techniques delivers a 20 % reduction in the mean absolute error, compared to a simple model only based on the water depth, despite several limitations of the enriched data set. We find that with our data set, the tree-based methods perform better than the Bayesian network.
Multivariate Calibration Models for Sorghum Composition using Near-Infrared Spectroscopy
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Wolfrum, E.; Payne, C.; Stefaniak, T.; Rooney, W.; Dighe, N.; Bean, B.; Dahlberg, J.
2013-03-01
NREL developed calibration models based on near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy coupled with multivariate statistics to predict compositional properties relevant to cellulosic biofuels production for a variety of sorghum cultivars. A robust calibration population was developed in an iterative fashion. The quality of models developed using the same sample geometry on two different types of NIR spectrometers and two different sample geometries on the same spectrometer did not vary greatly.
Forecasting Multivariate Volatility using the VARFIMA Model on Realized Covariance Cholesky Factors
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Halbleib, Roxana; Voev, Valeri
2011-01-01
positive definite, but biased covariance forecasts. In this paper, we provide empirical evidence that parsimonious versions of the model generate the best covariance forecasts in the absence of bias correction. Moreover, we show by means of stochastic dominance tests that any risk averse investor......This paper analyzes the forecast accuracy of the multivariate realized volatility model introduced by Chiriac and Voev (2010), subject to different degrees of model parametrization and economic evaluation criteria. Bymodelling the Cholesky factors of the covariancematrices, the model generates......, regardless of the type of utility function or return distribution, would be better-off from using this model than from using some standard approaches....
POWERLIB: SAS/IML Software for Computing Power in Multivariate Linear Models
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Jacqueline L. Johnson
2009-04-01
Full Text Available The POWERLIB SAS/IML software provides convenient power calculations for a widerange of multivariate linear models with Gaussian errors. The software includes the Box,Geisser-Greenhouse, Huynh-Feldt, and uncorrected tests in the univariate" approach torepeated measures (UNIREP, the Hotelling Lawley Trace, Pillai-Bartlett Trace, andWilks Lambda tests in multivariate" approach (MULTIREP, as well as a limited butuseful range of mixed models. The familiar univariate linear model with Gaussian errorsis an important special case. For estimated covariance, the software provides condencelimits for the resulting estimated power. All power and condence limits values canbe output to a SAS dataset, which can be used to easily produce plots and tables formanuscripts.
2014-01-01
Background Before considering whether to use a multivariable (diagnostic or prognostic) prediction model, it is essential that its performance be evaluated in data that were not used to develop the model (referred to as external validation). We critically appraised the methodological conduct and reporting of external validation studies of multivariable prediction models. Methods We conducted a systematic review of articles describing some form of external validation of one or more multivariable prediction models indexed in PubMed core clinical journals published in 2010. Study data were extracted in duplicate on design, sample size, handling of missing data, reference to the original study developing the prediction models and predictive performance measures. Results 11,826 articles were identified and 78 were included for full review, which described the evaluation of 120 prediction models. in participant data that were not used to develop the model. Thirty-three articles described both the development of a prediction model and an evaluation of its performance on a separate dataset, and 45 articles described only the evaluation of an existing published prediction model on another dataset. Fifty-seven percent of the prediction models were presented and evaluated as simplified scoring systems. Sixteen percent of articles failed to report the number of outcome events in the validation datasets. Fifty-four percent of studies made no explicit mention of missing data. Sixty-seven percent did not report evaluating model calibration whilst most studies evaluated model discrimination. It was often unclear whether the reported performance measures were for the full regression model or for the simplified models. Conclusions The vast majority of studies describing some form of external validation of a multivariable prediction model were poorly reported with key details frequently not presented. The validation studies were characterised by poor design, inappropriate handling
Lehermeier, Christina; Schön, Chris-Carolin; de Los Campos, Gustavo
2015-09-01
Plant breeding populations exhibit varying levels of structure and admixture; these features are likely to induce heterogeneity of marker effects across subpopulations. Traditionally, structure has been dealt with as a potential confounder, and various methods exist to "correct" for population stratification. However, these methods induce a mean correction that does not account for heterogeneity of marker effects. The animal breeding literature offers a few recent studies that consider modeling genetic heterogeneity in multibreed data, using multivariate models. However, these methods have received little attention in plant breeding where population structure can have different forms. In this article we address the problem of analyzing data from heterogeneous plant breeding populations, using three approaches: (a) a model that ignores population structure [A-genome-based best linear unbiased prediction (A-GBLUP)], (b) a stratified (i.e., within-group) analysis (W-GBLUP), and (c) a multivariate approach that uses multigroup data and accounts for heterogeneity (MG-GBLUP). The performance of the three models was assessed on three different data sets: a diversity panel of rice (Oryza sativa), a maize (Zea mays L.) half-sib panel, and a wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) data set that originated from plant breeding programs. The estimated genomic correlations between subpopulations varied from null to moderate, depending on the genetic distance between subpopulations and traits. Our assessment of prediction accuracy features cases where ignoring population structure leads to a parsimonious more powerful model as well as others where the multivariate and stratified approaches have higher predictive power. In general, the multivariate approach appeared slightly more robust than either the A- or the W-GBLUP. Copyright © 2015 by the Genetics Society of America.
Chen, Zeng-Ping; Li, Li-Mei; Yu, Ru-Qin; Littlejohn, David; Nordon, Alison; Morris, Julian; Dann, Alison S; Jeffkins, Paul A; Richardson, Mark D; Stimpson, Sarah L
2011-01-07
The development of reliable multivariate calibration models for spectroscopic instruments in on-line/in-line monitoring of chemical and bio-chemical processes is generally difficult, time-consuming and costly. Therefore, it is preferable if calibration models can be used for an extended period, without the need to replace them. However, in many process applications, changes in the instrumental response (e.g. owing to a change of spectrometer) or variations in the measurement conditions (e.g. a change in temperature) can cause a multivariate calibration model to become invalid. In this contribution, a new method, systematic prediction error correction (SPEC), has been developed to maintain the predictive abilities of multivariate calibration models when e.g. the spectrometer or measurement conditions are altered. The performance of the method has been tested on two NIR data sets (one with changes in instrumental responses, the other with variations in experimental conditions) and the outcomes compared with those of some popular methods, i.e. global PLS, univariate slope and bias correction (SBC) and piecewise direct standardization (PDS). The results show that SPEC achieves satisfactory analyte predictions with significantly lower RMSEP values than global PLS and SBC for both data sets, even when only a few standardization samples are used. Furthermore, SPEC is simple to implement and requires less information than PDS, which offers advantages for applications with limited data.
Multivariable modeling of pressure vessel and piping J-R data
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Eason, E.D.; Wright, J.E.; Nelson, E.E.
1991-05-01
Multivariable models were developed for predicting J-R curves from available data, such as material chemistry, radiation exposure, temperature, and Charpy V-notch energy. The present work involved collection of public test data, application of advanced pattern recognition tools, and calibration of improved multivariable models. Separate models were fitted for different material groups, including RPV welds, Linde 80 welds, RPV base metals, piping welds, piping base metals, and the combined database. Three different types of models were developed, involving different combinations of variables that might be available for applications: a Charpy model, a preirradiation Charpy model, and a copper-fluence model. In general, the best results were obtained with the preirradiation Charpy model. The copper-fluence model is recommended only if Charpy data are unavailable, and then only for Linde 80 welds. Relatively good fits were obtained, capable of predicting the values of J for pressure vessel steels to with a standard deviation of 13--18% over the range of test data. The models were qualified for predictive purposes by demonstrating their ability to predict validation data not used for fitting. 20 refs., 45 figs., 16 tabs
Tescione, Lia; Lambropoulos, James; Paranandi, Madhava Ram; Makagiansar, Helena; Ryll, Thomas
2015-01-01
A bench scale cell culture model representative of manufacturing scale (2,000 L) was developed based on oxygen mass transfer principles, for a CHO-based process producing a recombinant human protein. Cell culture performance differences across scales are characterized most often by sub-optimal performance in manufacturing scale bioreactors. By contrast in this study, reduced growth rates were observed at bench scale during the initial model development. Bioreactor models based on power per unit volume (P/V), volumetric mass transfer coefficient (kL a), and oxygen transfer rate (OTR) were evaluated to address this scale performance difference. Lower viable cell densities observed for the P/V model were attributed to higher sparge rates and reduced oxygen mass transfer efficiency (kL a) of the small scale hole spargers. Increasing the sparger kL a by decreasing the pore size resulted in a further decrease in growth at bench scale. Due to sensitivity of the cell line to gas sparge rate and bubble size that was revealed by the P/V and kL a models, an OTR model based on oxygen enrichment and increased P/V was selected that generated endpoint sparge rates representative of 2,000 L scale. This final bench scale model generated similar growth rates as manufacturing. In order to take into account other routinely monitored process parameters besides growth, a multivariate statistical approach was applied to demonstrate validity of the small scale model. After the model was selected based on univariate and multivariate analysis, product quality was generated and verified to fall within the 95% confidence limit of the multivariate model. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Estimation of Seismic Wavelets Based on the Multivariate Scale Mixture of Gaussians Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jing-Huai Gao
2009-12-01
Full Text Available This paper proposes a new method for estimating seismic wavelets. Suppose a seismic wavelet can be modeled by a formula with three free parameters (scale, frequency and phase. We can transform the estimation of the wavelet into determining these three parameters. The phase of the wavelet is estimated by constant-phase rotation to the seismic signal, while the other two parameters are obtained by the Higher-order Statistics (HOS (fourth-order cumulant matching method. In order to derive the estimator of the Higher-order Statistics (HOS, the multivariate scale mixture of Gaussians (MSMG model is applied to formulating the multivariate joint probability density function (PDF of the seismic signal. By this way, we can represent HOS as a polynomial function of second-order statistics to improve the anti-noise performance and accuracy. In addition, the proposed method can work well for short time series.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Wu, Yili; Zhang, Dongfeng; Pang, Zengchang
2015-01-01
Systolic and diastolic blood pressure, pulse pressure (PP), and body mass index (BMI) are heritable traits in human metabolic health but their common genetic and environmental backgrounds are not well investigated. The aim of this article was to explore the phenotypic and genetic associations among...... PP, systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), and BMI. The studied sample contained 615 twin pairs (17-84 years) collected in the Qingdao municipality. Univariate and multivariate structural equation models were fitted for assessing the genetic and environmental contributions....... The AE model combining additive genetic (A) and unique environmental (E) factors produced the best fit for each four phenotypes. Heritability estimated in univariate analysis ranged from 0.42 to 0.74 with the highest for BMI (95% CI 0.70-0.78), and the lowest for PP (95% CI 0.34-0.49). The multivariate...
A multivariate conditional model for streamflow prediction and spatial precipitation refinement
Liu, Zhiyong; Zhou, Ping; Chen, Xiuzhi; Guan, Yinghui
2015-10-01
The effective prediction and estimation of hydrometeorological variables are important for water resources planning and management. In this study, we propose a multivariate conditional model for streamflow prediction and the refinement of spatial precipitation estimates. This model consists of high dimensional vine copulas, conditional bivariate copula simulations, and a quantile-copula function. The vine copula is employed because of its flexibility in modeling the high dimensional joint distribution of multivariate data by building a hierarchy of conditional bivariate copulas. We investigate two cases to evaluate the performance and applicability of the proposed approach. In the first case, we generate one month ahead streamflow forecasts that incorporate multiple predictors including antecedent precipitation and streamflow records in a basin located in South China. The prediction accuracy of the vine-based model is compared with that of traditional data-driven models such as the support vector regression (SVR) and the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The results indicate that the proposed model produces more skillful forecasts than SVR and ANFIS. Moreover, this probabilistic model yields additional information concerning the predictive uncertainty. The second case involves refining spatial precipitation estimates derived from the tropical rainfall measuring mission precipitationproduct for the Yangtze River basin by incorporating remotely sensed soil moisture data and the observed precipitation from meteorological gauges over the basin. The validation results indicate that the proposed model successfully refines the spatial precipitation estimates. Although this model is tested for specific cases, it can be extended to other hydrometeorological variables for predictions and spatial estimations.
A multivariate-based conflict prediction model for a Brazilian freeway.
Caleffi, Felipe; Anzanello, Michel José; Cybis, Helena Beatriz Bettella
2017-01-01
Real-time collision risk prediction models relying on traffic data can be useful in dynamic management systems seeking at improving traffic safety. Models have been proposed to predict crash occurrence and collision risk in order to proactively improve safety. This paper presents a multivariate-based framework for selecting variables for a conflict prediction model on the Brazilian BR-290/RS freeway. The Bhattacharyya Distance (BD) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) are applied to a dataset comprised of variables that potentially help to explain occurrence of traffic conflicts; the parameters yielded by such multivariate techniques give rise to a variable importance index that guides variables removal for later selection. Next, the selected variables are inserted into a Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) model to estimate conflict occurrence. A matched control-case technique is applied using traffic data processed from surveillance cameras at a segment of a Brazilian freeway. Results indicate that the variables that significantly impacted on the model are associated to total flow, difference between standard deviation of lanes' occupancy, and the speed's coefficient of variation. The model allowed to asses a characteristic behavior of major Brazilian's freeways, by identifying the Brazilian typical heterogeneity of traffic pattern among lanes, which leads to aggressive maneuvers. Results also indicate that the developed LDA-PCA model outperforms the LDA-BD model. The LDA-PCA model yields average 76% classification accuracy, and average 87% sensitivity (which measures the rate of conflicts correctly predicted). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Contributions to Estimation and Testing Block Covariance Structures in Multivariate Normal Models
Liang, Yuli
2015-01-01
This thesis concerns inference problems in balanced random effects models with a so-called block circular Toeplitz covariance structure. This class of covariance structures describes the dependency of some specific multivariate two-level data when both compound symmetry and circular symmetry appear simultaneously. We derive two covariance structures under two different invariance restrictions. The obtained covariance structures reflect both circularity and exchangeability present in the data....
Goodness-of-fit test in a multivariate errors-in-variables model $AX=B$
Kukush, Alexander; Tsaregorodtsev, Yaroslav
2016-01-01
We consider a multivariable functional errors-in-variables model $AX\\approx B$, where the data matrices $A$ and $B$ are observed with errors, and a matrix parameter $X$ is to be estimated. A goodness-of-fit test is constructed based on the total least squares estimator. The proposed test is asymptotically chi-squared under null hypothesis. The power of the test under local alternatives is discussed.
Ding, Lili; Kurowski, Brad G; He, Hua; Alexander, Eileen S; Mersha, Tesfaye B; Fardo, David W; Zhang, Xue; Pilipenko, Valentina V; Kottyan, Leah; Martin, Lisa J
2014-01-01
Genetic studies often collect data on multiple traits. Most genetic association analyses, however, consider traits separately and ignore potential correlation among traits, partially because of difficulties in statistical modeling of multivariate outcomes. When multiple traits are measured in a pedigree longitudinally, additional challenges arise because in addition to correlation between traits, a trait is often correlated with its own measures over time and with measurements of other family...
Multivariable Adaptive Controller for the Nonlinear MIMO Model of a Container Ship
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Michal Brasel
2014-03-01
Full Text Available The paper presents an adaptive multivariable control system for a Multi-Input, Multi-Output (MIMO nonlinear dynamic process. The problems under study are exemplified by a synthesis of a course angle and forward speed control system for the nonlinear four-Degrees-of-Freedom (4-DoF mathematical model of a single-screw, high-speed container ship. The paper presents the complexity of the assumed model to be analyzed and a synthesis method for the multivariable adaptive modal controller. Due to a strongly nonlinear nature of the ship movements equations a multivariable adaptive controller is tuned in relation to changeable hydrodynamic operating conditions of the ship. In accordance with the given operating conditions controller parameters are chosen on the basis of four measured auxiliary signals. The system synthesis is carried out by linearization of the nonlinear model of the ship at its nominal operating points in the steady-state and by means of a pole placement control method. The final part of the paper includes results of simulation tests of the proposed control system carried out in the MATLAB/Simulink environment along with conclusions and final remarks.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
J. C. Ochoa-Rivera
2002-01-01
Full Text Available A model for multivariate streamflow generation is presented, based on a multilayer feedforward neural network. The structure of the model results from two components, the neural network (NN deterministic component and a random component which is assumed to be normally distributed. It is from this second component that the model achieves the ability to incorporate effectively the uncertainty associated with hydrological processes, making it valuable as a practical tool for synthetic generation of streamflow series. The NN topology and the corresponding analytical explicit formulation of the model are described in detail. The model is calibrated with a series of monthly inflows to two reservoir sites located in the Tagus River basin (Spain, while validation is performed through estimation of a set of statistics that is relevant for water resources systems planning and management. Among others, drought and storage statistics are computed and compared for both the synthetic and historical series. The performance of the NN-based model was compared to that of a standard autoregressive AR(2 model. Results show that NN represents a promising modelling alternative for simulation purposes, with interesting potential in the context of water resources systems management and optimisation. Keywords: neural networks, perceptron multilayer, error backpropagation, hydrological scenario generation, multivariate time-series..
A multivariable model for predicting the frictional behaviour and hydration of the human skin.
Veijgen, N K; van der Heide, E; Masen, M A
2013-08-01
The frictional characteristics of skin-object interactions are important when handling objects, in the assessment of perception and comfort of products and materials and in the origins and prevention of skin injuries. In this study, based on statistical methods, a quantitative model is developed that describes the friction behaviour of human skin as a function of the subject characteristics, contact conditions, the properties of the counter material as well as environmental conditions. Although the frictional behaviour of human skin is a multivariable problem, in literature the variables that are associated with skin friction have been studied using univariable methods. In this work, multivariable models for the static and dynamic coefficients of friction as well as for the hydration of the skin are presented. A total of 634 skin-friction measurements were performed using a recently developed tribometer. Using a statistical analysis, previously defined potential influential variables were linked to the static and dynamic coefficient of friction and to the hydration of the skin, resulting in three predictive quantitative models that descibe the friction behaviour and the hydration of human skin respectively. Increased dynamic coefficients of friction were obtained from older subjects, on the index finger, with materials with a higher surface energy at higher room temperatures, whereas lower dynamic coefficients of friction were obtained at lower skin temperatures, on the temple with rougher contact materials. The static coefficient of friction increased with higher skin hydration, increasing age, on the index finger, with materials with a higher surface energy and at higher ambient temperatures. The hydration of the skin was associated with the skin temperature, anatomical location, presence of hair on the skin and the relative air humidity. Predictive models have been derived for the static and dynamic coefficient of friction using a multivariable approach. These
Forecasting of municipal solid waste quantity in a developing country using multivariate grey models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Intharathirat, Rotchana, E-mail: rotchana.in@gmail.com [Energy Field of Study, School of Environment, Resources and Development, Asian Institute of Technology, P.O. Box 4, KlongLuang, Pathumthani 12120 (Thailand); Abdul Salam, P., E-mail: salam@ait.ac.th [Energy Field of Study, School of Environment, Resources and Development, Asian Institute of Technology, P.O. Box 4, KlongLuang, Pathumthani 12120 (Thailand); Kumar, S., E-mail: kumar@ait.ac.th [Energy Field of Study, School of Environment, Resources and Development, Asian Institute of Technology, P.O. Box 4, KlongLuang, Pathumthani 12120 (Thailand); Untong, Akarapong, E-mail: akarapong_un@hotmail.com [School of Tourism Development, Maejo University, Chiangmai (Thailand)
2015-05-15
Highlights: • Grey model can be used to forecast MSW quantity accurately with the limited data. • Prediction interval overcomes the uncertainty of MSW forecast effectively. • A multivariate model gives accuracy associated with factors affecting MSW quantity. • Population, urbanization, employment and household size play role for MSW quantity. - Abstract: In order to plan, manage and use municipal solid waste (MSW) in a sustainable way, accurate forecasting of MSW generation and composition plays a key role. It is difficult to carry out the reliable estimates using the existing models due to the limited data available in the developing countries. This study aims to forecast MSW collected in Thailand with prediction interval in long term period by using the optimized multivariate grey model which is the mathematical approach. For multivariate models, the representative factors of residential and commercial sectors affecting waste collected are identified, classified and quantified based on statistics and mathematics of grey system theory. Results show that GMC (1, 5), the grey model with convolution integral, is the most accurate with the least error of 1.16% MAPE. MSW collected would increase 1.40% per year from 43,435–44,994 tonnes per day in 2013 to 55,177–56,735 tonnes per day in 2030. This model also illustrates that population density is the most important factor affecting MSW collected, followed by urbanization, proportion employment and household size, respectively. These mean that the representative factors of commercial sector may affect more MSW collected than that of residential sector. Results can help decision makers to develop the measures and policies of waste management in long term period.
Forecasting of municipal solid waste quantity in a developing country using multivariate grey models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Intharathirat, Rotchana; Abdul Salam, P.; Kumar, S.; Untong, Akarapong
2015-01-01
Highlights: • Grey model can be used to forecast MSW quantity accurately with the limited data. • Prediction interval overcomes the uncertainty of MSW forecast effectively. • A multivariate model gives accuracy associated with factors affecting MSW quantity. • Population, urbanization, employment and household size play role for MSW quantity. - Abstract: In order to plan, manage and use municipal solid waste (MSW) in a sustainable way, accurate forecasting of MSW generation and composition plays a key role. It is difficult to carry out the reliable estimates using the existing models due to the limited data available in the developing countries. This study aims to forecast MSW collected in Thailand with prediction interval in long term period by using the optimized multivariate grey model which is the mathematical approach. For multivariate models, the representative factors of residential and commercial sectors affecting waste collected are identified, classified and quantified based on statistics and mathematics of grey system theory. Results show that GMC (1, 5), the grey model with convolution integral, is the most accurate with the least error of 1.16% MAPE. MSW collected would increase 1.40% per year from 43,435–44,994 tonnes per day in 2013 to 55,177–56,735 tonnes per day in 2030. This model also illustrates that population density is the most important factor affecting MSW collected, followed by urbanization, proportion employment and household size, respectively. These mean that the representative factors of commercial sector may affect more MSW collected than that of residential sector. Results can help decision makers to develop the measures and policies of waste management in long term period
Royston, Patrick; Sauerbrei, Willi
2016-01-01
In a recent article, Royston (2015, Stata Journal 15: 275-291) introduced the approximate cumulative distribution (acd) transformation of a continuous covariate x as a route toward modeling a sigmoid relationship between x and an outcome variable. In this article, we extend the approach to multivariable modeling by modifying the standard Stata program mfp. The result is a new program, mfpa, that has all the features of mfp plus the ability to fit a new model for user-selected covariates that we call fp1( p 1 , p 2 ). The fp1( p 1 , p 2 ) model comprises the best-fitting combination of a dimension-one fractional polynomial (fp1) function of x and an fp1 function of acd ( x ). We describe a new model-selection algorithm called function-selection procedure with acd transformation, which uses significance testing to attempt to simplify an fp1( p 1 , p 2 ) model to a submodel, an fp1 or linear model in x or in acd ( x ). The function-selection procedure with acd transformation is related in concept to the fsp (fp function-selection procedure), which is an integral part of mfp and which is used to simplify a dimension-two (fp2) function. We describe the mfpa command and give univariable and multivariable examples with real data to demonstrate its use.
MCKissick, Burnell T. (Technical Monitor); Plassman, Gerald E.; Mall, Gerald H.; Quagliano, John R.
2005-01-01
Linear multivariable regression models for predicting day and night Eddy Dissipation Rate (EDR) from available meteorological data sources are defined and validated. Model definition is based on a combination of 1997-2000 Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) data sources, EDR from Aircraft Vortex Spacing System (AVOSS) deployment data, and regression variables primarily from corresponding Automated Surface Observation System (ASOS) data. Model validation is accomplished through EDR predictions on a similar combination of 1994-1995 Memphis (MEM) AVOSS and ASOS data. Model forms include an intercept plus a single term of fixed optimal power for each of these regression variables; 30-minute forward averaged mean and variance of near-surface wind speed and temperature, variance of wind direction, and a discrete cloud cover metric. Distinct day and night models, regressing on EDR and the natural log of EDR respectively, yield best performance and avoid model discontinuity over day/night data boundaries.
A Quasi-ARX Model for Multivariable Decoupling Control of Nonlinear MIMO System
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lan Wang
2012-01-01
Full Text Available This paper proposes a multiinput and multioutput (MIMO quasi-autoregressive eXogenous (ARX model and a multivariable-decoupling proportional integral differential (PID controller for MIMO nonlinear systems based on the proposed model. The proposed MIMO quasi-ARX model improves the performance of ordinary quasi-ARX model. The proposed controller consists of a traditional PID controller with a decoupling compensator and a feed-forward compensator for the nonlinear dynamics based on the MIMO quasi-ARX model. Then an adaptive control algorithm is presented using the MIMO quasi-ARX radial basis function network (RBFN prediction model and some stability analysis of control system is shown. Simulation results show the effectiveness of the proposed control method.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Xu Chengjian; Schaaf, Arjen van der; Schilstra, Cornelis; Langendijk, Johannes A.; Veld, Aart A. van’t
2012-01-01
Purpose: To study the impact of different statistical learning methods on the prediction performance of multivariate normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models. Methods and Materials: In this study, three learning methods, stepwise selection, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), and Bayesian model averaging (BMA), were used to build NTCP models of xerostomia following radiotherapy treatment for head and neck cancer. Performance of each learning method was evaluated by a repeated cross-validation scheme in order to obtain a fair comparison among methods. Results: It was found that the LASSO and BMA methods produced models with significantly better predictive power than that of the stepwise selection method. Furthermore, the LASSO method yields an easily interpretable model as the stepwise method does, in contrast to the less intuitive BMA method. Conclusions: The commonly used stepwise selection method, which is simple to execute, may be insufficient for NTCP modeling. The LASSO method is recommended.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Xu Chengjian, E-mail: c.j.xu@umcg.nl [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Schaaf, Arjen van der; Schilstra, Cornelis; Langendijk, Johannes A.; Veld, Aart A. van' t [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands)
2012-03-15
Purpose: To study the impact of different statistical learning methods on the prediction performance of multivariate normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models. Methods and Materials: In this study, three learning methods, stepwise selection, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), and Bayesian model averaging (BMA), were used to build NTCP models of xerostomia following radiotherapy treatment for head and neck cancer. Performance of each learning method was evaluated by a repeated cross-validation scheme in order to obtain a fair comparison among methods. Results: It was found that the LASSO and BMA methods produced models with significantly better predictive power than that of the stepwise selection method. Furthermore, the LASSO method yields an easily interpretable model as the stepwise method does, in contrast to the less intuitive BMA method. Conclusions: The commonly used stepwise selection method, which is simple to execute, may be insufficient for NTCP modeling. The LASSO method is recommended.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Terrence D. Jorgensen
2017-08-01
Full Text Available The assumption of equivalence between measurement-model configurations across groups is typically investigated by evaluating overall fit of the same model simultaneously to multiple samples. However, the null hypothesis (H0 of configural invariance is distinct from the H0 of overall model fit. Permutation tests of configural invariance yield nominal Type I error rates even when a model does not fit perfectly (Jorgensen et al., 2017, in press. When the configural model requires modification, lack of evidence against configural invariance implies that researchers should reconsider their model's structure simultaneously across all groups. Application of multivariate modification indices is therefore proposed to help decide which parameter(s to free simultaneously in all groups, and I present Monte Carlo simulation results comparing their Type I error control to traditional 1-df modification indices. I use the Holzinger and Swineford (1939 data set to illustrate these methods.
Reduced Multivariate Polynomial Model for Manufacturing Costs Estimation of Piping Elements
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nibaldo Rodriguez
2013-01-01
Full Text Available This paper discusses the development and evaluation of an estimation model of manufacturing costs of piping elements through the application of a Reduced Multivariate Polynomial (RMP. The model allows obtaining accurate estimations, even when enough and adequate information is not available. This situation typically occurs in the early stages of the design process of industrial products. The experimental evaluations show that the approach is capable, with a low complexity, of reducing uncertainties and to predict costs with significant precision. Comparisons with a neural network showed also that the RMP performs better considering a set of classical performance measures with the corresponding lower complexity and higher accuracy.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Weathers, J.B.; Luck, R.; Weathers, J.W.
2009-01-01
The complexity of mathematical models used by practicing engineers is increasing due to the growing availability of sophisticated mathematical modeling tools and ever-improving computational power. For this reason, the need to define a well-structured process for validating these models against experimental results has become a pressing issue in the engineering community. This validation process is partially characterized by the uncertainties associated with the modeling effort as well as the experimental results. The net impact of the uncertainties on the validation effort is assessed through the 'noise level of the validation procedure', which can be defined as an estimate of the 95% confidence uncertainty bounds for the comparison error between actual experimental results and model-based predictions of the same quantities of interest. Although general descriptions associated with the construction of the noise level using multivariate statistics exists in the literature, a detailed procedure outlining how to account for the systematic and random uncertainties is not available. In this paper, the methodology used to derive the covariance matrix associated with the multivariate normal pdf based on random and systematic uncertainties is examined, and a procedure used to estimate this covariance matrix using Monte Carlo analysis is presented. The covariance matrices are then used to construct approximate 95% confidence constant probability contours associated with comparison error results for a practical example. In addition, the example is used to show the drawbacks of using a first-order sensitivity analysis when nonlinear local sensitivity coefficients exist. Finally, the example is used to show the connection between the noise level of the validation exercise calculated using multivariate and univariate statistics.
Multivariate soft-modeling to predict radiocesium soil-to-plant transfer.
Rigol, Anna; Camps, Marta; De Juan, Anna; Rauret, Gemma; Vidal, Miquel
2008-06-01
A multivariate soft-modeling approach based on an exploratory principal component analysis (PCA) followed by a partial least squares regression (PLS) was developed, tested, and validated to estimate radiocesium transfer to grass from readily measurable soil characteristics. A data set with 145 soil samples and 21 soil and plant parameters was used. Samples were soils from various field plots contaminated by the Chernobyl accident (soddy-podzolic and peaty soils), submitted to several agricultural treatments (disking, ploughing, fertilization, and liming). Parameters included soil characteristics and the corresponding radiocesium soil-to-plant transfer factors. PCA of data showed that soil samples were grouped according to the field plots and that they covered a wide range of possible soil-to-plant transfer scenarios. PLS was used to design and build the multivariate prediction model. The soil database was split in two parts: (i) a representative calibration set for training purposes and model building and (ii) a prediction set for external validation and model testing. The regression coefficients of the model confirmed the relevant parametersto describe radiocesium soil-to-plant transfer variation (e.g., phyllosilicate content and NH4+ status), which agreed with previous knowledge on the interaction mechanisms of this radionuclide in soils. The prediction of soil-to-plant transfer was satisfactory with an error of the same order of magnitude as the variability of field replicates.
Intharathirat, Rotchana; Abdul Salam, P; Kumar, S; Untong, Akarapong
2015-05-01
In order to plan, manage and use municipal solid waste (MSW) in a sustainable way, accurate forecasting of MSW generation and composition plays a key role. It is difficult to carry out the reliable estimates using the existing models due to the limited data available in the developing countries. This study aims to forecast MSW collected in Thailand with prediction interval in long term period by using the optimized multivariate grey model which is the mathematical approach. For multivariate models, the representative factors of residential and commercial sectors affecting waste collected are identified, classified and quantified based on statistics and mathematics of grey system theory. Results show that GMC (1, 5), the grey model with convolution integral, is the most accurate with the least error of 1.16% MAPE. MSW collected would increase 1.40% per year from 43,435-44,994 tonnes per day in 2013 to 55,177-56,735 tonnes per day in 2030. This model also illustrates that population density is the most important factor affecting MSW collected, followed by urbanization, proportion employment and household size, respectively. These mean that the representative factors of commercial sector may affect more MSW collected than that of residential sector. Results can help decision makers to develop the measures and policies of waste management in long term period. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Zhang, Yong; Zhong, Miner; Geng, Nana; Jiang, Yunjian
2017-01-01
The market demand for electric vehicles (EVs) has increased in recent years. Suitable models are necessary to understand and forecast EV sales. This study presents a singular spectrum analysis (SSA) as a univariate time-series model and vector autoregressive model (VAR) as a multivariate model. Empirical results suggest that SSA satisfactorily indicates the evolving trend and provides reasonable results. The VAR model, which comprised exogenous parameters related to the market on a monthly basis, can significantly improve the prediction accuracy. The EV sales in China, which are categorized into battery and plug-in EVs, are predicted in both short term (up to December 2017) and long term (up to 2020), as statistical proofs of the growth of the Chinese EV industry. PMID:28459872
Zhang, Yong; Zhong, Miner; Geng, Nana; Jiang, Yunjian
2017-01-01
The market demand for electric vehicles (EVs) has increased in recent years. Suitable models are necessary to understand and forecast EV sales. This study presents a singular spectrum analysis (SSA) as a univariate time-series model and vector autoregressive model (VAR) as a multivariate model. Empirical results suggest that SSA satisfactorily indicates the evolving trend and provides reasonable results. The VAR model, which comprised exogenous parameters related to the market on a monthly basis, can significantly improve the prediction accuracy. The EV sales in China, which are categorized into battery and plug-in EVs, are predicted in both short term (up to December 2017) and long term (up to 2020), as statistical proofs of the growth of the Chinese EV industry.
A model-based examination of multivariate physical modes in the Gulf of Alaska
Hermann, A. J.; Ladd, C.; Cheng, W.; Curchitser, E. N.; Hedstrom, K.
2016-10-01
We use multivariate output from a hydrodynamic model of the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) to explore the covariance among its physical state and air/sea fluxes. We attempt to summarize this coupled variability using a limited set of patterns, and examine their correlation to three large-scale climate indices relevant to the Northeast Pacific. This analysis is focused on perturbations from monthly climatology of the following attributes of the GOA: sea surface temperature, sea surface height, mixed layer depth, sea surface salinity, latent heat flux, sensible heat flux, shortwave irradiance, net long wave irradiance, currents at 40 m depth, and wind stress. We identified two multivariate modes, both substantially correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Multivariate El Nino (MEI) indices on interannual timescales, which together account for 30% of the total normalized variance of the perturbation time series. These two modes indicate the following covarying events during periods of positive PDO/MEI: (1) anomalously warm, wet and windy conditions (typically in winter), with elevated coastal SSH, followed 2-5 months later by (2) reduced cloud cover, with emerging shelf-break eddies. Similar modes are found when the analysis is performed separately on the eastern and western GOA; in general, modal amplitudes appear stronger in the western GOA.
McArtor, Daniel B; Lin, Bochao D; Hottenga, Jouke-Jan; Boomsma, Dorret I; Willemsen, Gonneke; Lubke, Gitta H
2017-01-01
AIM: To assess the extent to which a multivariate approach to modeling interrelated hematological indices provides more informative results than the traditional approach of modeling each index separately. MATERIALS & METHODS: The effects of demographics and lifestyle on ten hematological indices
Business Models and Technological Innovation
Baden-Fuller, Charles; Haefliger, Stefan
2013-01-01
Business models are fundamentally linked with technological innovation, yet the business model construct is essentially separable from technology. We define the business model as a system that solves the problem of identifying who is (or are) the customer(s), engaging with their needs, delivering satisfaction, and monetizing the value. The framework depicts the business model system as a model containing cause and effect relationships, and it provides a basis for classification. We formulate ...
Energy consumption and economic growth in New Zealand: Results of trivariate and multivariate models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bartleet, Matthew; Gounder, Rukmani
2010-01-01
This study examines the energy consumption-growth nexus in New Zealand. Causal linkages between energy and macroeconomic variables are investigated using trivariate demand-side and multivariate production models. Long run and short run relationships are estimated for the period 1960-2004. The estimated results of demand model reveal a long run relationship between energy consumption, real GDP and energy prices. The short run results indicate that real GDP Granger-causes energy consumption without feedback, consistent with the proposition that energy demand is a derived demand. Energy prices are found to be significant for energy consumption outcomes. Production model results indicate a long run relationship between real GDP, energy consumption and employment. The Granger-causality is found from real GDP to energy consumption, providing additional evidence to support the neoclassical proposition that energy consumption in New Zealand is fundamentally driven by economic activities. Inclusion of capital in the multivariate production model shows short run causality from capital to energy consumption. Also, changes in real GDP and employment have significant predictive power for changes in real capital.
ANALYSIS OF MULTIVARIATE FAILURE TIME DATA USING MARGINAL PROPORTIONAL HAZARDS MODEL.
Chen, Ying; Chen, Kani; Ying, Zhiliang
2010-01-01
The marginal proportional hazards model is an important tool in the analysis of multivariate failure time data in the presence of censoring. We propose a method of estimation via the linear combinations of martingale residuals. The estimation and inference procedures are easy to implement numerically. The estimation is generally more accurate than the existing pseudo-likelihood approach: the size of efficiency gain can be considerable in some cases, and the maximum relative efficiency in theory is infinite. Consistency and asymptotic normality are established. Empirical evidence in support of the theoretical claims is shown in simulation studies.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Jan; Parner, Erik
2010-01-01
In this paper, we model multivariate time-to-event data by composite likelihood of pairwise frailty likelihoods and marginal hazards using natural cubic splines. Both right- and interval-censored data are considered. The suggested approach is applied on two types of family studies using the gamma......- and stable frailty distribution: The first study is on adoption data where the association between survival in families of adopted children and their adoptive and biological parents is studied. The second study is a cross-sectional study of the occurrence of back and neck pain in twins, illustrating...
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Čech, František; Baruník, Jozef
2017-01-01
Roč. 36, č. 1 (2017), s. 181-206 ISSN 0277-6693 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-32263S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Multivariate volatility * realized covariance * portfolio optimisation Subject RIV: AH - Economics OBOR OECD: Economic Theory Impact factor: 0.747, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2017/E/barunik-0478479.pdf
Probabilistic, multi-variate flood damage modelling using random forests and Bayesian networks
Kreibich, Heidi; Schröter, Kai
2015-04-01
Decisions on flood risk management and adaptation are increasingly based on risk analyses. Such analyses are associated with considerable uncertainty, even more if changes in risk due to global change are expected. Although uncertainty analysis and probabilistic approaches have received increased attention recently, they are hardly applied in flood damage assessments. Most of the damage models usually applied in standard practice have in common that complex damaging processes are described by simple, deterministic approaches like stage-damage functions. This presentation will show approaches for probabilistic, multi-variate flood damage modelling on the micro- and meso-scale and discuss their potential and limitations. Reference: Merz, B.; Kreibich, H.; Lall, U. (2013): Multi-variate flood damage assessment: a tree-based data-mining approach. NHESS, 13(1), 53-64. Schröter, K., Kreibich, H., Vogel, K., Riggelsen, C., Scherbaum, F., Merz, B. (2014): How useful are complex flood damage models? - Water Resources Research, 50, 4, p. 3378-3395.
Searching for recursive causal structures in multivariate quantitative genetics mixed models.
Valente, Bruno D; Rosa, Guilherme J M; de Los Campos, Gustavo; Gianola, Daniel; Silva, Martinho A
2010-06-01
Biology is characterized by complex interactions between phenotypes, such as recursive and simultaneous relationships between substrates and enzymes in biochemical systems. Structural equation models (SEMs) can be used to study such relationships in multivariate analyses, e.g., with multiple traits in a quantitative genetics context. Nonetheless, the number of different recursive causal structures that can be used for fitting a SEM to multivariate data can be huge, even when only a few traits are considered. In recent applications of SEMs in mixed-model quantitative genetics settings, causal structures were preselected on the basis of prior biological knowledge alone. Therefore, the wide range of possible causal structures has not been properly explored. Alternatively, causal structure spaces can be explored using algorithms that, using data-driven evidence, can search for structures that are compatible with the joint distribution of the variables under study. However, the search cannot be performed directly on the joint distribution of the phenotypes as it is possibly confounded by genetic covariance among traits. In this article we propose to search for recursive causal structures among phenotypes using the inductive causation (IC) algorithm after adjusting the data for genetic effects. A standard multiple-trait model is fitted using Bayesian methods to obtain a posterior covariance matrix of phenotypes conditional to unobservable additive genetic effects, which is then used as input for the IC algorithm. As an illustrative example, the proposed methodology was applied to simulated data related to multiple traits measured on a set of inbred lines.
Chen, Hsiang-Chun; Wehrly, Thomas E
2015-02-20
The classic concordance correlation coefficient measures the agreement between two variables. In recent studies, concordance correlation coefficients have been generalized to deal with responses from a distribution from the exponential family using the univariate generalized linear mixed model. Multivariate data arise when responses on the same unit are measured repeatedly by several methods. The relationship among these responses is often of interest. In clustered mixed data, the correlation could be present between repeated measurements either within the same observer or between different methods on the same subjects. Indices for measuring such association are needed. This study proposes a series of indices, namely, intra-correlation, inter-correlation, and total correlation coefficients to measure the correlation under various circumstances in a multivariate generalized linear model, especially for joint modeling of clustered count and continuous outcomes. The proposed indices are natural extensions of the concordance correlation coefficient. We demonstrate the methodology with simulation studies. A case example of osteoarthritis study is provided to illustrate the use of these proposed indices. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
New consensus multivariate models based on PLS and ANN studies of sigma-1 receptor antagonists.
Oliveira, Aline A; Lipinski, Célio F; Pereira, Estevão B; Honorio, Kathia M; Oliveira, Patrícia R; Weber, Karen C; Romero, Roseli A F; de Sousa, Alexsandro G; da Silva, Albérico B F
2017-10-02
The treatment of neuropathic pain is very complex and there are few drugs approved for this purpose. Among the studied compounds in the literature, sigma-1 receptor antagonists have shown to be promising. In order to develop QSAR studies applied to the compounds of 1-arylpyrazole derivatives, multivariate analyses have been performed in this work using partial least square (PLS) and artificial neural network (ANN) methods. A PLS model has been obtained and validated with 45 compounds in the training set and 13 compounds in the test set (r 2 training = 0.761, q 2 = 0.656, r 2 test = 0.746, MSE test = 0.132 and MAE test = 0.258). Additionally, multi-layer perceptron ANNs (MLP-ANNs) were employed in order to propose non-linear models trained by gradient descent with momentum backpropagation function. Based on MSE test values, the best MLP-ANN models were combined in a MLP-ANN consensus model (MLP-ANN-CM; r 2 test = 0.824, MSE test = 0.088 and MAE test = 0.197). In the end, a general consensus model (GCM) has been obtained using PLS and MLP-ANN-CM models (r 2 test = 0.811, MSE test = 0.100 and MAE test = 0.218). Besides, the selected descriptors (GGI6, Mor23m, SRW06, H7m, MLOGP, and μ) revealed important features that should be considered when one is planning new compounds of the 1-arylpyrazole class. The multivariate models proposed in this work are definitely a powerful tool for the rational drug design of new compounds for neuropathic pain treatment. Graphical abstract Main scaffold of the 1-arylpyrazole derivatives and the selected descriptors.
Yang, Yongli; Fu, Pengyu; Xie, Jing; Zhang, Weidong; Zhang, Meixi; Wang, Chongjian; Ping, Zhiguang; Hu, Dongsheng
2009-09-01
To explore the application of multivariate response model with multilevel in the influencing factors of blood pressure. Two response model with three-level was fitted under MLwin 2.02 software. The correlation coefficient between systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) was 0.949 at region level, and 0.701 at individual level. SBP and DBP level increased with age, while the regression coefficient of age on SBP was significantly higher than on DBP, beta was 0.720 (SBP) and 0.118 (DBP) individually (chi2 = 4284.56, P response model with multilevel can be used to analyze the hierarchy structure data, and it is also a good tool to analyze the influencing factors of blood pressure.
Thibaut, Loïc; Wang, Yi Alice
2017-01-01
Bootstrap methods are widely used in statistics, and bootstrapping of residuals can be especially useful in the regression context. However, difficulties are encountered extending residual resampling to regression settings where residuals are not identically distributed (thus not amenable to bootstrapping)—common examples including logistic or Poisson regression and generalizations to handle clustered or multivariate data, such as generalised estimating equations. We propose a bootstrap method based on probability integral transform (PIT-) residuals, which we call the PIT-trap, which assumes data come from some marginal distribution F of known parametric form. This method can be understood as a type of “model-free bootstrap”, adapted to the problem of discrete and highly multivariate data. PIT-residuals have the key property that they are (asymptotically) pivotal. The PIT-trap thus inherits the key property, not afforded by any other residual resampling approach, that the marginal distribution of data can be preserved under PIT-trapping. This in turn enables the derivation of some standard bootstrap properties, including second-order correctness of pivotal PIT-trap test statistics. In multivariate data, bootstrapping rows of PIT-residuals affords the property that it preserves correlation in data without the need for it to be modelled, a key point of difference as compared to a parametric bootstrap. The proposed method is illustrated on an example involving multivariate abundance data in ecology, and demonstrated via simulation to have improved properties as compared to competing resampling methods. PMID:28738071
Warton, David I; Thibaut, Loïc; Wang, Yi Alice
2017-01-01
Bootstrap methods are widely used in statistics, and bootstrapping of residuals can be especially useful in the regression context. However, difficulties are encountered extending residual resampling to regression settings where residuals are not identically distributed (thus not amenable to bootstrapping)-common examples including logistic or Poisson regression and generalizations to handle clustered or multivariate data, such as generalised estimating equations. We propose a bootstrap method based on probability integral transform (PIT-) residuals, which we call the PIT-trap, which assumes data come from some marginal distribution F of known parametric form. This method can be understood as a type of "model-free bootstrap", adapted to the problem of discrete and highly multivariate data. PIT-residuals have the key property that they are (asymptotically) pivotal. The PIT-trap thus inherits the key property, not afforded by any other residual resampling approach, that the marginal distribution of data can be preserved under PIT-trapping. This in turn enables the derivation of some standard bootstrap properties, including second-order correctness of pivotal PIT-trap test statistics. In multivariate data, bootstrapping rows of PIT-residuals affords the property that it preserves correlation in data without the need for it to be modelled, a key point of difference as compared to a parametric bootstrap. The proposed method is illustrated on an example involving multivariate abundance data in ecology, and demonstrated via simulation to have improved properties as compared to competing resampling methods.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yuchong Li
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Network anomaly detection and localization are of great significance to network security. Compared with the traditional methods of host computer, single link and single path, the network-wide anomaly detection approaches have distinctive advantages with respect to detection precision and range. However, when facing the actual problems of noise interference or data loss, the network-wide anomaly detection approaches also suffer significant performance reduction or may even become unavailable. Besides, researches on anomaly localization are rare. In order to solve the mentioned problems, this paper presents a robust multivariate probabilistic calibration model for network-wide anomaly detection and localization. It applies the latent variable probability theory with multivariate t-distribution to establish the normal traffic model. Not only does the algorithm implement network anomaly detection by judging whether the sample’s Mahalanobis distance exceeds the threshold, but also it locates anomalies by contribution analysis. Both theoretical analysis and experimental results demonstrate its robustness and wider use. The algorithm is applicable when dealing with both data integrity and loss. It also has a stronger resistance over noise interference and lower sensitivity to the change of parameters, all of which indicate its performance stability.
Collins, Gary S; Reitsma, Johannes B; Altman, Douglas G; Moons, Karel G M
2015-06-01
Prediction models are developed to aid health care providers in estimating the probability or risk that a specific disease or condition is present (diagnostic models) or that a specific event will occur in the future (prognostic models), to inform their decision making. However, the overwhelming evidence shows that the quality of reporting of prediction model studies is poor. Only with full and clear reporting of information on all aspects of a prediction model can risk of bias and potential usefulness of prediction models be adequately assessed. The Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) Initiative developed a set of recommendations for the reporting of studies developing, validating, or updating a prediction model, whether for diagnostic or prognostic purposes. This article describes how the TRIPOD Statement was developed. An extensive list of items based on a review of the literature was created, which was reduced after a Web-based survey and revised during a 3-day meeting in June 2011 with methodologists, health care professionals, and journal editors. The list was refined during several meetings of the steering group and in e-mail discussions with the wider group of TRIPOD contributors. The resulting TRIPOD Statement is a checklist of 22 items, deemed essential for transparent reporting of a prediction model study. The TRIPOD Statement aims to improve the transparency of the reporting of a prediction model study regardless of the study methods used. The TRIPOD Statement is best used in conjunction with the TRIPOD explanation and elaboration document. To aid the editorial process and readers of prediction model studies, it is recommended that authors include a completed checklist in their submission (also available at www.tripod-statement.org). The Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) Initiative developed a set of recommendations
Sang, Huiyan
2011-12-01
This paper investigates the cross-correlations across multiple climate model errors. We build a Bayesian hierarchical model that accounts for the spatial dependence of individual models as well as cross-covariances across different climate models. Our method allows for a nonseparable and nonstationary cross-covariance structure. We also present a covariance approximation approach to facilitate the computation in the modeling and analysis of very large multivariate spatial data sets. The covariance approximation consists of two parts: a reduced-rank part to capture the large-scale spatial dependence, and a sparse covariance matrix to correct the small-scale dependence error induced by the reduced rank approximation. We pay special attention to the case that the second part of the approximation has a block-diagonal structure. Simulation results of model fitting and prediction show substantial improvement of the proposed approximation over the predictive process approximation and the independent blocks analysis. We then apply our computational approach to the joint statistical modeling of multiple climate model errors. © 2012 Institute of Mathematical Statistics.
Validation of multivariable models for predicting tooth loss in periodontitis patients.
Schwendicke, F; Schmietendorf, E; Plaumann, A; Sälzer, S; Dörfer, C E; Graetz, C
2018-04-03
A large number of multivariable models which associate independent variables with the outcome tooth loss exist. Directly or indirectly, these make predictions as to the relative risk of tooth loss. We aimed to validate six of these prediction models. We applied each model, if needed after adaptions, in a cohort of 301 compliant periodontitis patients who had been under supportive periodontal treatment (SPT) in a university setting over 21.7±5.6 years. The models employed a range of tooth-level and patient-level parameters. Model accuracy, i.e. the ability to rightly predict tooth loss during SPT using baseline parameters, was investigated by the area under the receiver-operating-characteristics curve (AUC). Most models showed low accuracy (AUC ranged between 0.52 and 0.67). The classification model from Avila et al. (2009), expressing the risk of tooth loss in five grades, was most accurate (mean AUC: 0.67, 95%CI: 0.65/0.69). When applying this model, the risk of false-positively predicting tooth loss was high, except when the highest grade (i.e. a tooth being considered as having a hopeless prognosis) was used. In this case, the specificity was 84% and the sensitivity 46%. Predicting tooth loss in this specific cohort of periodontitis patients was only limitedly possible. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
Nieto, Paulino José García; Antón, Juan Carlos Álvarez; Vilán, José Antonio Vilán; García-Gonzalo, Esperanza
2014-10-01
The aim of this research work is to build a regression model of the particulate matter up to 10 micrometers in size (PM10) by using the multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) technique in the Oviedo urban area (Northern Spain) at local scale. This research work explores the use of a nonparametric regression algorithm known as multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) which has the ability to approximate the relationship between the inputs and outputs, and express the relationship mathematically. In this sense, hazardous air pollutants or toxic air contaminants refer to any substance that may cause or contribute to an increase in mortality or serious illness, or that may pose a present or potential hazard to human health. To accomplish the objective of this study, the experimental dataset of nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO), sulfur dioxide (SO2), ozone (O3) and dust (PM10) were collected over 3 years (2006-2008) and they are used to create a highly nonlinear model of the PM10 in the Oviedo urban nucleus (Northern Spain) based on the MARS technique. One main objective of this model is to obtain a preliminary estimate of the dependence between PM10 pollutant in the Oviedo urban area at local scale. A second aim is to determine the factors with the greatest bearing on air quality with a view to proposing health and lifestyle improvements. The United States National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) establishes the limit values of the main pollutants in the atmosphere in order to ensure the health of healthy people. Firstly, this MARS regression model captures the main perception of statistical learning theory in order to obtain a good prediction of the dependence among the main pollutants in the Oviedo urban area. Secondly, the main advantages of MARS are its capacity to produce simple, easy-to-interpret models, its ability to estimate the contributions of the input variables, and its computational efficiency. Finally, on the basis of
Postma, Erik; Siitari, Heli; Schwabl, Hubert; Richner, Heinz; Tschirren, Barbara
2014-03-01
Egg components are important mediators of prenatal maternal effects in birds and other oviparous species. Because different egg components can have opposite effects on offspring phenotype, selection is expected to favour their mutual adjustment, resulting in a significant covariation between egg components within and/or among clutches. Here we tested for such correlations between maternally derived yolk immunoglobulins and yolk androgens in great tit (Parus major) eggs using a multivariate mixed-model approach. We found no association between yolk immunoglobulins and yolk androgens within clutches, indicating that within clutches the two egg components are deposited independently. Across clutches, however, there was a significant negative relationship between yolk immunoglobulins and yolk androgens, suggesting that selection has co-adjusted their deposition. Furthermore, an experimental manipulation of ectoparasite load affected patterns of covariance among egg components. Yolk immunoglobulins are known to play an important role in nestling immune defence shortly after hatching, whereas yolk androgens, although having growth-enhancing effects under many environmental conditions, can be immunosuppressive. We therefore speculate that variation in the risk of parasitism may play an important role in shaping optimal egg composition and may lead to the observed pattern of yolk immunoglobulin and yolk androgen deposition across clutches. More generally, our case study exemplifies how multivariate mixed-model methodology presents a flexible tool to not only quantify, but also test patterns of (co)variation across different organisational levels and environments, allowing for powerful hypothesis testing in ecophysiology.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhifeng Zhong
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Owing to the environment, temperature, and so forth, photovoltaic power generation volume is always fluctuating and subsequently impacts power grid planning and operation seriously. Therefore, it is of great importance to make accurate prediction of the power generation of photovoltaic (PV system in advance. In order to improve the prediction accuracy, in this paper, a novel particle swarm optimization algorithm based multivariable grey theory model is proposed for short-term photovoltaic power generation volume forecasting. It is highlighted that, by integrating particle swarm optimization algorithm, the prediction accuracy of grey theory model is expected to be highly improved. In addition, large amounts of real data from two separate power stations in China are being employed for model verification. The experimental results indicate that, compared with the conventional grey model, the mean relative error in the proposed model has been reduced from 7.14% to 3.53%. The real practice demonstrates that the proposed optimization model outperforms the conventional grey model from both theoretical and practical perspectives.
El-Basyouny, Karim; Barua, Sudip; Islam, Md Tazul
2014-12-01
Previous research shows that various weather elements have significant effects on crash occurrence and risk; however, little is known about how these elements affect different crash types. Consequently, this study investigates the impact of weather elements and sudden extreme snow or rain weather changes on crash type. Multivariate models were used for seven crash types using five years of daily weather and crash data collected for the entire City of Edmonton. In addition, the yearly trend and random variation of parameters across the years were analyzed by using four different modeling formulations. The proposed models were estimated in a full Bayesian context via Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. The multivariate Poisson lognormal model with yearly varying coefficients provided the best fit for the data according to Deviance Information Criteria. Overall, results showed that temperature and snowfall were statistically significant with intuitive signs (crashes decrease with increasing temperature; crashes increase as snowfall intensity increases) for all crash types, while rainfall was mostly insignificant. Previous snow showed mixed results, being statistically significant and positively related to certain crash types, while negatively related or insignificant in other cases. Maximum wind gust speed was found mostly insignificant with a few exceptions that were positively related to crash type. Major snow or rain events following a dry weather condition were highly significant and positively related to three crash types: Follow-Too-Close, Stop-Sign-Violation, and Ran-Off-Road crashes. The day-of-the-week dummy variables were statistically significant, indicating a possible weekly variation in exposure. Transportation authorities might use the above results to improve road safety by providing drivers with information regarding the risk of certain crash types for a particular weather condition. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Pleiotropy analysis of quantitative traits at gene level by multivariate functional linear models.
Wang, Yifan; Liu, Aiyi; Mills, James L; Boehnke, Michael; Wilson, Alexander F; Bailey-Wilson, Joan E; Xiong, Momiao; Wu, Colin O; Fan, Ruzong
2015-05-01
In genetics, pleiotropy describes the genetic effect of a single gene on multiple phenotypic traits. A common approach is to analyze the phenotypic traits separately using univariate analyses and combine the test results through multiple comparisons. This approach may lead to low power. Multivariate functional linear models are developed to connect genetic variant data to multiple quantitative traits adjusting for covariates for a unified analysis. Three types of approximate F-distribution tests based on Pillai-Bartlett trace, Hotelling-Lawley trace, and Wilks's Lambda are introduced to test for association between multiple quantitative traits and multiple genetic variants in one genetic region. The approximate F-distribution tests provide much more significant results than those of F-tests of univariate analysis and optimal sequence kernel association test (SKAT-O). Extensive simulations were performed to evaluate the false positive rates and power performance of the proposed models and tests. We show that the approximate F-distribution tests control the type I error rates very well. Overall, simultaneous analysis of multiple traits can increase power performance compared to an individual test of each trait. The proposed methods were applied to analyze (1) four lipid traits in eight European cohorts, and (2) three biochemical traits in the Trinity Students Study. The approximate F-distribution tests provide much more significant results than those of F-tests of univariate analysis and SKAT-O for the three biochemical traits. The approximate F-distribution tests of the proposed functional linear models are more sensitive than those of the traditional multivariate linear models that in turn are more sensitive than SKAT-O in the univariate case. The analysis of the four lipid traits and the three biochemical traits detects more association than SKAT-O in the univariate case. © 2015 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.
Application of Multivariable Model Predictive Advanced Control for a 2×310T/H CFB Boiler Unit
Weijie, Zhao; Zongllao, Dai; Rong, Gou; Wengan, Gong
When a CFB boiler is in automatic control, there are strong interactions between various process variables and inverse response characteristics of bed temperature control target. Conventional Pill control strategy cannot deliver satisfactory control demand. Kalman wave filter technology is used to establish a non-linear combustion model, based on the CFB combustion characteristics of bed fuel inventory, heating values, bed lime inventory and consumption. CFB advanced combustion control utilizes multivariable model predictive control technology to optimize primary and secondary air flow, bed temperature, air flow, fuel flow and heat flux. In addition to providing advanced combustion control to 2×310t/h CFB+1×100MW extraction condensing turbine generator unit, the control also provides load allocation optimization and advanced control for main steam pressure, combustion and temperature. After the successful implementation, under 10% load change, main steam pressure varied less than ±0.07MPa, temperature less than ±1°C, bed temperature less than ±4°C, and air flow (O2) less than ±0.4%.
Krohn, Olivia; Armbruster, Aaron; Gao, Yongsheng; Atlas Collaboration
2017-01-01
Software tools developed for the purpose of modeling CERN LHC pp collision data to aid in its interpretation are presented. Some measurements are not adequately described by a Gaussian distribution; thus an interpretation assuming Gaussian uncertainties will inevitably introduce bias, necessitating analytical tools to recreate and evaluate non-Gaussian features. One example is the measurements of Higgs boson production rates in different decay channels, and the interpretation of these measurements. The ratios of data to Standard Model expectations (μ) for five arbitrary signals were modeled by building five Poisson distributions with mixed signal contributions such that the measured values of μ are correlated. Algorithms were designed to recreate probability distribution functions of μ as multi-variate Gaussians, where the standard deviation (σ) and correlation coefficients (ρ) are parametrized. There was good success with modeling 1-D likelihood contours of μ, and the multi-dimensional distributions were well modeled within 1- σ but the model began to diverge after 2- σ due to unmerited assumptions in developing ρ. Future plans to improve the algorithms and develop a user-friendly analysis package will also be discussed. NSF International Research Experiences for Students
Inference of reactive transport model parameters using a Bayesian multivariate approach
Carniato, Luca; Schoups, Gerrit; van de Giesen, Nick
2014-08-01
Parameter estimation of subsurface transport models from multispecies data requires the definition of an objective function that includes different types of measurements. Common approaches are weighted least squares (WLS), where weights are specified a priori for each measurement, and weighted least squares with weight estimation (WLS(we)) where weights are estimated from the data together with the parameters. In this study, we formulate the parameter estimation task as a multivariate Bayesian inference problem. The WLS and WLS(we) methods are special cases in this framework, corresponding to specific prior assumptions about the residual covariance matrix. The Bayesian perspective allows for generalizations to cases where residual correlation is important and for efficient inference by analytically integrating out the variances (weights) and selected covariances from the joint posterior. Specifically, the WLS and WLS(we) methods are compared to a multivariate (MV) approach that accounts for specific residual correlations without the need for explicit estimation of the error parameters. When applied to inference of reactive transport model parameters from column-scale data on dissolved species concentrations, the following results were obtained: (1) accounting for residual correlation between species provides more accurate parameter estimation for high residual correlation levels whereas its influence for predictive uncertainty is negligible, (2) integrating out the (co)variances leads to an efficient estimation of the full joint posterior with a reduced computational effort compared to the WLS(we) method, and (3) in the presence of model structural errors, none of the methods is able to identify the correct parameter values.
Thresholds models of technological transitions
Zeppini, P.; Frenken, K.; Kupers, R.
2014-01-01
We present a systematic review of seven threshold models of technological transitions from physics, biology, economics and sociology. The very same phenomenon of a technological transition can be explained by very different logics, ranging from economic explanations based on price, performance and
Improved modeling of multivariate measurement errors based on the Wishart distribution.
Wentzell, Peter D; Cleary, Cody S; Kompany-Zareh, M
2017-03-22
The error covariance matrix (ECM) is an important tool for characterizing the errors from multivariate measurements, representing both the variance and covariance in the errors across multiple channels. Such information is useful in understanding and minimizing sources of experimental error and in the selection of optimal data analysis procedures. Experimental ECMs, normally obtained through replication, are inherently noisy, inconvenient to obtain, and offer limited interpretability. Significant advantages can be realized by building a model for the ECM based on established error types. Such models are less noisy, reduce the need for replication, mitigate mathematical complications such as matrix singularity, and provide greater insights. While the fitting of ECM models using least squares has been previously proposed, the present work establishes that fitting based on the Wishart distribution offers a much better approach. Simulation studies show that the Wishart method results in parameter estimates with a smaller variance and also facilitates the statistical testing of alternative models using a parameterized bootstrap method. The new approach is applied to fluorescence emission data to establish the acceptability of various models containing error terms related to offset, multiplicative offset, shot noise and uniform independent noise. The implications of the number of replicates, as well as single vs. multiple replicate sets are also described. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yoonsu Shin
2016-01-01
Full Text Available In the 5G era, the operational cost of mobile wireless networks will significantly increase. Further, massive network capacity and zero latency will be needed because everything will be connected to mobile networks. Thus, self-organizing networks (SON are needed, which expedite automatic operation of mobile wireless networks, but have challenges to satisfy the 5G requirements. Therefore, researchers have proposed a framework to empower SON using big data. The recent framework of a big data-empowered SON analyzes the relationship between key performance indicators (KPIs and related network parameters (NPs using machine-learning tools, and it develops regression models using a Gaussian process with those parameters. The problem, however, is that the methods of finding the NPs related to the KPIs differ individually. Moreover, the Gaussian process regression model cannot determine the relationship between a KPI and its various related NPs. In this paper, to solve these problems, we proposed multivariate multiple regression models to determine the relationship between various KPIs and NPs. If we assume one KPI and multiple NPs as one set, the proposed models help us process multiple sets at one time. Also, we can find out whether some KPIs are conflicting or not. We implement the proposed models using MapReduce.
BN-FLEMOps pluvial - A probabilistic multi-variable loss estimation model for pluvial floods
Roezer, V.; Kreibich, H.; Schroeter, K.; Doss-Gollin, J.; Lall, U.; Merz, B.
2017-12-01
Pluvial flood events, such as in Copenhagen (Denmark) in 2011, Beijing (China) in 2012 or Houston (USA) in 2016, have caused severe losses to urban dwellings in recent years. These floods are caused by storm events with high rainfall rates well above the design levels of urban drainage systems, which lead to inundation of streets and buildings. A projected increase in frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events in many areas and an ongoing urbanization may increase pluvial flood losses in the future. For an efficient risk assessment and adaptation to pluvial floods, a quantification of the flood risk is needed. Few loss models have been developed particularly for pluvial floods. These models usually use simple waterlevel- or rainfall-loss functions and come with very high uncertainties. To account for these uncertainties and improve the loss estimation, we present a probabilistic multi-variable loss estimation model for pluvial floods based on empirical data. The model was developed in a two-step process using a machine learning approach and a comprehensive database comprising 783 records of direct building and content damage of private households. The data was gathered through surveys after four different pluvial flood events in Germany between 2005 and 2014. In a first step, linear and non-linear machine learning algorithms, such as tree-based and penalized regression models were used to identify the most important loss influencing factors among a set of 55 candidate variables. These variables comprise hydrological and hydraulic aspects, early warning, precaution, building characteristics and the socio-economic status of the household. In a second step, the most important loss influencing variables were used to derive a probabilistic multi-variable pluvial flood loss estimation model based on Bayesian Networks. Two different networks were tested: a score-based network learned from the data and a network based on expert knowledge. Loss predictions are made
Sharmin, Rumana
This thesis explores the use of multivariate statistical techniques in developing tools for property modeling and monitoring of a high pressure ethylene polymerization process. In polymer industry, many researchers have shown, mainly in simulation studies, the potential of multivariate statistical methods in identification and control of polymerization process. However, very few, if any, of these strategies have been implemented. This work was done using data collected from a commercial high pressure LDPE/EVA reactor located at AT Plastics, Edmonton. The models or methods developed in the course of this research have been validated with real data and in most cases, implemented in real time. One main objective of this PhD project was to develop and implement a data based inferential sensor to estimate the melt flow index of LDPE and EVA resins using regularly measured process variables. Steady state PLS method was used to develop the soft sensor model. A detailed description of the data preprocessing steps are given that should be followed in the analysis of industrial data. Models developed for two of the most frequently produced polymer grades at AT Plastics have been implemented. The models were tested for many sets of data and showed acceptable performance when applied with an online bias updating scheme. One observation from many validation exercises was that the model prediction becomes poorer with time as operators use new process conditions in the plant to produce the same resin with the same specification. During the implementation of the soft sensors, we suggested a simple bias update scheme as a remedy to this problem. An alternative and more rigorous approach is to recursively update the model with new data, which is also more suitable to handle grade transition. Two existing recursive PLS methods, one based on NIPALS algorithm and the other based on kernel algorithm were reviewed. In addition, we proposed a novel RPLS algorithm which is based on the
Parametric Cost and Schedule Modeling for Early Technology Development
2018-04-02
improved sample sizes and initial screening results. This analysis revealed that nonlinear behavior was evident in both TI and SH cost and schedule...MODELING FOR EARLY TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT ix behavior . However, if planned SH and TI levels are known, multivariate models applying both predictor...Cost and Schedule Models,” Journal of Cost Analysis and Parametrics 7, no. 3 (2014): 160–179. THE JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY APPLIED PHYSICS LABORATORY2
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jensen, Kasper Lynge; Spliid, Henrik; Toftum, Jørn
2011-01-01
The aim of the current study was to apply multivariate mixed-effects modeling to analyze experimental data on the relation between air quality and the performance of office work. The method estimates in one step the effect of the exposure on a multi-dimensional response variable, and yields...... important information on the correlation between the different dimensions of the response variable, which in this study was composed of both subjective perceptions and a two-dimensional performance task outcome. Such correlation is typically not included in the output from univariate analysis methods. Data....... The analysis seems superior to conventional univariate statistics and the information provided may be important for the design of performance experiments in general and for the conclusions that can be based on such studies....
Giacomo, Della Riccia; Stefania, Del Zotto
2013-12-15
Fumonisins are mycotoxins produced by Fusarium species that commonly live in maize. Whereas fungi damage plants, fumonisins cause disease both to cattle breedings and human beings. Law limits set fumonisins tolerable daily intake with respect to several maize based feed and food. Chemical techniques assure the most reliable and accurate measurements, but they are expensive and time consuming. A method based on Near Infrared spectroscopy and multivariate statistical regression is described as a simpler, cheaper and faster alternative. We apply Partial Least Squares with full cross validation. Two models are described, having high correlation of calibration (0.995, 0.998) and of validation (0.908, 0.909), respectively. Description of observed phenomenon is accurate and overfitting is avoided. Screening of contaminated maize with respect to European legal limit of 4 mg kg(-1) should be assured. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
A Semi-parametric Multivariate Gap-filling Model for Eddy Covariance Latent Heat Flux
Li, M.; Chen, Y.
2010-12-01
Quantitative descriptions of latent heat fluxes are important to study the water and energy exchanges between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. The eddy covariance approaches have been recognized as the most reliable technique for measuring surface fluxes over time scales ranging from hours to years. However, unfavorable micrometeorological conditions, instrument failures, and applicable measurement limitations may cause inevitable flux gaps in time series data. Development and application of suitable gap-filling techniques are crucial to estimate long term fluxes. In this study, a semi-parametric multivariate gap-filling model was developed to fill latent heat flux gaps for eddy covariance measurements. Our approach combines the advantages of a multivariate statistical analysis (principal component analysis, PCA) and a nonlinear interpolation technique (K-nearest-neighbors, KNN). The PCA method was first used to resolve the multicollinearity relationships among various hydrometeorological factors, such as radiation, soil moisture deficit, LAI, and wind speed. The KNN method was then applied as a nonlinear interpolation tool to estimate the flux gaps as the weighted sum latent heat fluxes with the K-nearest distances in the PCs’ domain. Two years, 2008 and 2009, of eddy covariance and hydrometeorological data from a subtropical mixed evergreen forest (the Lien-Hua-Chih Site) were collected to calibrate and validate the proposed approach with artificial gaps after standard QC/QA procedures. The optimal K values and weighting factors were determined by the maximum likelihood test. The results of gap-filled latent heat fluxes conclude that developed model successful preserving energy balances of daily, monthly, and yearly time scales. Annual amounts of evapotranspiration from this study forest were 747 mm and 708 mm for 2008 and 2009, respectively. Nocturnal evapotranspiration was estimated with filled gaps and results are comparable with other studies
Prats-Montalbán, José M.; López, Fernando; Valiente, José M.; Ferrer, Alberto
2007-01-01
In this paper we present an innovative way to simultaneously perform feature extraction and classification for the quality control issue of surface grading by applying two well known multivariate statistical projection tools (SIMCA and PLS-DA). These tools have been applied to compress the color texture data describing the visual appearance of surfaces (soft color texture descriptors) and to directly perform classification using statistics and predictions computed from the extracted projection models. Experiments have been carried out using an extensive image database of ceramic tiles (VxC TSG). This image database is comprised of 14 different models, 42 surface classes and 960 pieces. A factorial experimental design has been carried out to evaluate all the combinations of several factors affecting the accuracy rate. Factors include tile model, color representation scheme (CIE Lab, CIE Luv and RGB) and compression/classification approach (SIMCA and PLS-DA). In addition, a logistic regression model is fitted from the experiments to compute accuracy estimates and study the factors effect. The results show that PLS-DA performs better than SIMCA, achieving a mean accuracy rate of 98.95%. These results outperform those obtained in a previous work where the soft color texture descriptors in combination with the CIE Lab color space and the k-NN classi.er achieved a 97.36% of accuracy.
Persuasive Technology and Business Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Søndergaard, Morten Karnøe; Lindgren, Peter; Veirum, Niels Einar
specific behavior, this results to the ability of designing for specific changes. Businesses use different persuasive technologies to persuade users, customers and network partners to change behavior. Operating more than one value proposition, both tangible and intangible value proposition, in combination...... seems to be crucial to the success of a persuasive business model. We will give a short introduction into the area of persuasive technology and business models. Moreover, we will present a number of concrete case examples where persuasive technologies were employed, the first in health care, the second...
Update on Multi-Variable Parametric Cost Models for Ground and Space Telescopes
Stahl, H. Philip; Henrichs, Todd; Luedtke, Alexander; West, Miranda
2012-01-01
Parametric cost models can be used by designers and project managers to perform relative cost comparisons between major architectural cost drivers and allow high-level design trades; enable cost-benefit analysis for technology development investment; and, provide a basis for estimating total project cost between related concepts. This paper reports on recent revisions and improvements to our ground telescope cost model and refinements of our understanding of space telescope cost models. One interesting observation is that while space telescopes are 50X to 100X more expensive than ground telescopes, their respective scaling relationships are similar. Another interesting speculation is that the role of technology development may be different between ground and space telescopes. For ground telescopes, the data indicates that technology development tends to reduce cost by approximately 50% every 20 years. But for space telescopes, there appears to be no such cost reduction because we do not tend to re-fly similar systems. Thus, instead of reducing cost, 20 years of technology development may be required to enable a doubling of space telescope capability. Other findings include: mass should not be used to estimate cost; spacecraft and science instrument costs account for approximately 50% of total mission cost; and, integration and testing accounts for only about 10% of total mission cost.
spBayes: An R Package for Univariate and Multivariate Hierarchical Point-referenced Spatial Models.
Finley, Andrew O; Banerjee, Sudipto; Carlin, Bradley P
2007-04-01
Scientists and investigators in such diverse fields as geological and environmental sciences, ecology, forestry, disease mapping, and economics often encounter spatially referenced data collected over a fixed set of locations with coordinates (latitude-longitude, Easting-Northing etc.) in a region of study. Such point-referenced or geostatistical data are often best analyzed with Bayesian hierarchical models. Unfortunately, fitting such models involves computationally intensive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods whose efficiency depends upon the specific problem at hand. This requires extensive coding on the part of the user and the situation is not helped by the lack of available software for such algorithms. Here, we introduce a statistical software package, spBayes, built upon the R statistical computing platform that implements a generalized template encompassing a wide variety of Gaussian spatial process models for univariate as well as multivariate point-referenced data. We discuss the algorithms behind our package and illustrate its use with a synthetic and real data example.
spBayes: An R Package for Univariate and Multivariate Hierarchical Point-referenced Spatial Models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Andrew O. Finley
2007-04-01
Full Text Available Scientists and investigators in such diverse fields as geological and environmental sciences, ecology, forestry, disease mapping, and economics often encounter spatially referenced data collected over a fixed set of locations with coordinates (latitude–longitude, Easting–Northing etc. in a region of study. Such point-referenced or geostatistical data are often best analyzed with Bayesian hierarchical models. Unfortunately, fitting such models involves computationally intensive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC methods whose efficiency depends upon the specific problem at hand. This requires extensive coding on the part of the user and the situation is not helped by the lack of available software for such algorithms. Here, we introduce a statistical software package, spBayes, built upon the R statistical computing platform that implements a generalized template encompassing a wide variety of Gaussian spatial process models for univariate as well as multivariate point-referenced data. We discuss the algorithms behind our package and illustrate its use with a synthetic and real data example.
Nieto, P J García; Antón, J C Álvarez; Vilán, J A Vilán; García-Gonzalo, E
2015-05-01
The aim of this research work is to build a regression model of air quality by using the multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) technique in the Oviedo urban area (northern Spain) at a local scale. To accomplish the objective of this study, the experimental data set made up of nitrogen oxides (NO x ), carbon monoxide (CO), sulfur dioxide (SO2), ozone (O3), and dust (PM10) was collected over 3 years (2006-2008). The US National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) establishes the limit values of the main pollutants in the atmosphere in order to ensure the health of healthy people. Firstly, this MARS regression model captures the main perception of statistical learning theory in order to obtain a good prediction of the dependence among the main pollutants in the Oviedo urban area. Secondly, the main advantages of MARS are its capacity to produce simple, easy-to-interpret models, its ability to estimate the contributions of the input variables, and its computational efficiency. Finally, on the basis of these numerical calculations, using the MARS technique, conclusions of this research work are exposed.
Brandstätter, Christian; Laner, David; Prantl, Roman; Fellner, Johann
2014-12-01
Municipal solid waste landfills pose a threat on environment and human health, especially old landfills which lack facilities for collection and treatment of landfill gas and leachate. Consequently, missing information about emission flows prevent site-specific environmental risk assessments. To overcome this gap, the combination of waste sampling and analysis with statistical modeling is one option for estimating present and future emission potentials. Optimizing the tradeoff between investigation costs and reliable results requires knowledge about both: the number of samples to be taken and variables to be analyzed. This article aims to identify the optimized number of waste samples and variables in order to predict a larger set of variables. Therefore, we introduce a multivariate linear regression model and tested the applicability by usage of two case studies. Landfill A was used to set up and calibrate the model based on 50 waste samples and twelve variables. The calibrated model was applied to Landfill B including 36 waste samples and twelve variables with four predictor variables. The case study results are twofold: first, the reliable and accurate prediction of the twelve variables can be achieved with the knowledge of four predictor variables (Loi, EC, pH and Cl). For the second Landfill B, only ten full measurements would be needed for a reliable prediction of most response variables. The four predictor variables would exhibit comparably low analytical costs in comparison to the full set of measurements. This cost reduction could be used to increase the number of samples yielding an improved understanding of the spatial waste heterogeneity in landfills. Concluding, the future application of the developed model potentially improves the reliability of predicted emission potentials. The model could become a standard screening tool for old landfills if its applicability and reliability would be tested in additional case studies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd
Timmerman, Mariek E.; Kiers, Henk A.L.
A class of four simultaneous component models for the exploratory analysis of multivariate time series collected from more than one subject simultaneously is discussed. In each of the models, the multivariate time series of each subject is decomposed into a few series of component scores and a
Multivariate poisson lognormal modeling of crashes by type and severity on rural two lane highways.
Wang, Kai; Ivan, John N; Ravishanker, Nalini; Jackson, Eric
2017-02-01
In an effort to improve traffic safety, there has been considerable interest in estimating crash prediction models and identifying factors contributing to crashes. To account for crash frequency variations among crash types and severities, crash prediction models have been estimated by type and severity. The univariate crash count models have been used by researchers to estimate crashes by crash type or severity, in which the crash counts by type or severity are assumed to be independent of one another and modelled separately. When considering crash types and severities simultaneously, this may neglect the potential correlations between crash counts due to the presence of shared unobserved factors across crash types or severities for a specific roadway intersection or segment, and might lead to biased parameter estimation and reduce model accuracy. The focus on this study is to estimate crashes by both crash type and crash severity using the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) Multivariate Poisson Lognormal (MVPLN) model, and identify the different effects of contributing factors on different crash type and severity counts on rural two-lane highways. The INLA MVPLN model can simultaneously model crash counts by crash type and crash severity by accounting for the potential correlations among them and significantly decreases the computational time compared with a fully Bayesian fitting of the MVPLN model using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. This paper describes estimation of MVPLN models for three-way stop controlled (3ST) intersections, four-way stop controlled (4ST) intersections, four-way signalized (4SG) intersections, and roadway segments on rural two-lane highways. Annual Average Daily traffic (AADT) and variables describing roadway conditions (including presence of lighting, presence of left-turn/right-turn lane, lane width and shoulder width) were used as predictors. A Univariate Poisson Lognormal (UPLN) was estimated by crash type and
Xu, Peng; Rizzoni, Elizabeth Anne; Sul, Se-Yeong; Stephanopoulos, Gregory
2017-01-20
Metabolic engineering entails target modification of cell metabolism to maximize the production of a specific compound. For empowering combinatorial optimization in strain engineering, tools and algorithms are needed to efficiently sample the multidimensional gene expression space and locate the desirable overproduction phenotype. We addressed this challenge by employing design of experiment (DoE) models to quantitatively correlate gene expression with strain performance. By fractionally sampling the gene expression landscape, we statistically screened the dominant enzyme targets that determine metabolic pathway efficiency. An empirical quadratic regression model was subsequently used to identify the optimal gene expression patterns of the investigated pathway. As a proof of concept, our approach yielded the natural product violacein at 525.4 mg/L in shake flasks, a 3.2-fold increase from the baseline strain. Violacein production was further increased to 1.31 g/L in a controlled benchtop bioreactor. We found that formulating discretized gene expression levels into logarithmic variables (Linlog transformation) was essential for implementing this DoE-based optimization procedure. The reported methodology can aid multivariate combinatorial pathway engineering and may be generalized as a standard procedure for accelerating strain engineering and improving metabolic pathway efficiency.
Application of Multivariate Modeling for Radiation Injury Assessment: A Proof of Concept
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
David L. Bolduc
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Multivariate radiation injury estimation algorithms were formulated for estimating severe hematopoietic acute radiation syndrome (H-ARS injury (i.e., response category three or RC3 in a rhesus monkey total-body irradiation (TBI model. Classical CBC and serum chemistry blood parameters were examined prior to irradiation (d 0 and on d 7, 10, 14, 21, and 25 after irradiation involving 24 nonhuman primates (NHP (Macaca mulatta given 6.5-Gy 60Co Υ-rays (0.4 Gy min−1 TBI. A correlation matrix was formulated with the RC3 severity level designated as the “dependent variable” and independent variables down selected based on their radioresponsiveness and relatively low multicollinearity using stepwise-linear regression analyses. Final candidate independent variables included CBC counts (absolute number of neutrophils, lymphocytes, and platelets in formulating the “CBC” RC3 estimation algorithm. Additionally, the formulation of a diagnostic CBC and serum chemistry “CBC-SCHEM” RC3 algorithm expanded upon the CBC algorithm model with the addition of hematocrit and the serum enzyme levels of aspartate aminotransferase, creatine kinase, and lactate dehydrogenase. Both algorithms estimated RC3 with over 90% predictive power. Only the CBC-SCHEM RC3 algorithm, however, met the critical three assumptions of linear least squares demonstrating slightly greater precision for radiation injury estimation, but with significantly decreased prediction error indicating increased statistical robustness.
Wang, Xiuquan; Huang, Guohe; Zhao, Shan; Guo, Junhong
2015-09-01
This paper presents an open-source software package, rSCA, which is developed based upon a stepwise cluster analysis method and serves as a statistical tool for modeling the relationships between multiple dependent and independent variables. The rSCA package is efficient in dealing with both continuous and discrete variables, as well as nonlinear relationships between the variables. It divides the sample sets of dependent variables into different subsets (or subclusters) through a series of cutting and merging operations based upon the theory of multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA). The modeling results are given by a cluster tree, which includes both intermediate and leaf subclusters as well as the flow paths from the root of the tree to each leaf subcluster specified by a series of cutting and merging actions. The rSCA package is a handy and easy-to-use tool and is freely available at http://cran.r-project.org/package=rSCA . By applying the developed package to air quality management in an urban environment, we demonstrate its effectiveness in dealing with the complicated relationships among multiple variables in real-world problems.
Cannon, Alex J.
2018-01-01
Most bias correction algorithms used in climatology, for example quantile mapping, are applied to univariate time series. They neglect the dependence between different variables. Those that are multivariate often correct only limited measures of joint dependence, such as Pearson or Spearman rank correlation. Here, an image processing technique designed to transfer colour information from one image to another—the N-dimensional probability density function transform—is adapted for use as a multivariate bias correction algorithm (MBCn) for climate model projections/predictions of multiple climate variables. MBCn is a multivariate generalization of quantile mapping that transfers all aspects of an observed continuous multivariate distribution to the corresponding multivariate distribution of variables from a climate model. When applied to climate model projections, changes in quantiles of each variable between the historical and projection period are also preserved. The MBCn algorithm is demonstrated on three case studies. First, the method is applied to an image processing example with characteristics that mimic a climate projection problem. Second, MBCn is used to correct a suite of 3-hourly surface meteorological variables from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4) across a North American domain. Components of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System, a complicated set of multivariate indices that characterizes the risk of wildfire, are then calculated and verified against observed values. Third, MBCn is used to correct biases in the spatial dependence structure of CanRCM4 precipitation fields. Results are compared against a univariate quantile mapping algorithm, which neglects the dependence between variables, and two multivariate bias correction algorithms, each of which corrects a different form of inter-variable correlation structure. MBCn outperforms these alternatives, often by a large margin
Advanced Mirror & Modelling Technology Development
Effinger, Michael; Stahl, H. Philip; Abplanalp, Laura; Maffett, Steven; Egerman, Robert; Eng, Ron; Arnold, William; Mosier, Gary; Blaurock, Carl
2014-01-01
The 2020 Decadal technology survey is starting in 2018. Technology on the shelf at that time will help guide selection to future low risk and low cost missions. The Advanced Mirror Technology Development (AMTD) team has identified development priorities based on science goals and engineering requirements for Ultraviolet Optical near-Infrared (UVOIR) missions in order to contribute to the selection process. One key development identified was lightweight mirror fabrication and testing. A monolithic, stacked, deep core mirror was fused and replicated twice to achieve the desired radius of curvature. It was subsequently successfully polished and tested. A recently awarded second phase to the AMTD project will develop larger mirrors to demonstrate the lateral scaling of the deep core mirror technology. Another key development was rapid modeling for the mirror. One model focused on generating optical and structural model results in minutes instead of months. Many variables could be accounted for regarding the core, face plate and back structure details. A portion of a spacecraft model was also developed. The spacecraft model incorporated direct integration to transform optical path difference to Point Spread Function (PSF) and between PSF to modulation transfer function. The second phase to the project will take the results of the rapid mirror modeler and integrate them into the rapid spacecraft modeler.
Zubia-Olaskoaga, Felix; Maraví-Poma, Enrique; Urreta-Barallobre, Iratxe; Ramírez-Puerta, María-Rosario; Mourelo-Fariña, Mónica; Marcos-Neira, María-Pilar; García-García, Miguel Ángel
2018-03-01
Development and validation of a multivariate prediction model for patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) admitted in Intensive Care Units (ICU). A prospective multicenter observational study, in 1 year period, in 46 international ICUs (EPAMI study). adults admitted to an ICU with AP and at least one organ failure. Development of a multivariate prediction model, using the worst data of the stay in ICU, based in multivariate analysis, simple imputation in a development cohort. The model was validated in another cohort. 374 patients were included (mortality of 28.9%). Variables with statistical significance in multivariate analysis were age, no alcoholic and no biliary etiology, development of shock, development of respiratory failure, need of continuous renal replacement therapy, and intra-abdominal pressure. The model created with these variables presented an AUC of ROC curve of 0.90 (CI 95% 0.81-0.94) in the validation cohort. We developed a multivariable prediction model, and AP cases could be classified as low mortality risk (between 2 and 9.5 points, mortality of 1.35%), moderate mortality risk (between 10 and 12.5 points, 28.92% of mortality), and high mortality risk (13 points of more, mortality of 88.37%). Our model presented better AUC of ROC curve than APACHE II (0.91 vs 0.80) and SOFA in the first 24 h (0.91 vs 0.79). We developed and validated a multivariate prediction model, which can be applied in any moment of the stay in ICU, with better discriminatory power than APACHE II and SOFA in the first 24 h. Copyright © 2018 IAP and EPC. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Technology Transfer Issues and a New Technology Transfer Model
Choi, Hee Jun
2009-01-01
The following are major issues that should be considered for efficient and effective technology transfer: conceptions of technology, technological activity and transfer, communication channels, factors affecting transfer, and models of transfer. In particular, a well-developed model of technology transfer could be used as a framework for…
The mixed linear model (MLM) is currently among the most advanced and flexible statistical modeling techniques and its use in tackling problems in plant pathology has begun surfacing in the literature. The longitudinal MLM is a multivariate extension that handles repeatedly measured data, such as r...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Silvennoinen, Annastiina; Teräsvirta, Timo
another variable according to which the correlations change smoothly between states of constant correlations. A Lagrange multiplier test is derived to test the constancy of correlations against the DSTCC-GARCH model, and another one to test for another transition in the STCC-GARCH framework. In addition...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mario Menéndez Álvarez
2017-06-01
Full Text Available Modeling of a cylindrical heavy media separator has been conducted in order to predict its optimum operating parameters. As far as it is known by the authors, this is the first application in the literature. The aim of the present research is to predict the separation efficiency based on the adjustment of the device’s dimensions and media flow rates. A variety of heavy media separators exist that are extensively used to separate particles by density. There is a growing importance in their application in the recycling sector. The cylindrical variety is reported to be the most suited for processing a large range of particle sizes, but optimizing its operating parameters remains to be documented. The multivariate adaptive regression splines methodology has been applied in order to predict the separation efficiencies using, as inputs, the device dimension and media flow rate variables. The results obtained show that it is possible to predict the device separation efficiency according to laboratory experiments performed and, therefore, forecast results obtainable with different operating conditions.
Barigye, Stephen J; Freitas, Matheus P; Ausina, Priscila; Zancan, Patricia; Sola-Penna, Mauro; Castillo-Garit, Juan A
2018-02-12
We recently generalized the formerly alignment-dependent multivariate image analysis applied to quantitative structure-activity relationships (MIA-QSAR) method through the application of the discrete Fourier transform (DFT), allowing for its application to noncongruent and structurally diverse chemical compound data sets. Here we report the first practical application of this method in the screening of molecular entities of therapeutic interest, with human aromatase inhibitory activity as the case study. We developed an ensemble classification model based on the two-dimensional (2D) DFT MIA-QSAR descriptors, with which we screened the NCI Diversity Set V (1593 compounds) and obtained 34 chemical compounds with possible aromatase inhibitory activity. These compounds were docked into the aromatase active site, and the 10 most promising compounds were selected for in vitro experimental validation. Of these compounds, 7419 (nonsteroidal) and 89 201 (steroidal) demonstrated satisfactory antiproliferative and aromatase inhibitory activities. The obtained results suggest that the 2D-DFT MIA-QSAR method may be useful in ligand-based virtual screening of new molecular entities of therapeutic utility.
Bioprinting technologies for disease modeling
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Memic, Adnan; Navaei, Ali; Mirani, Bahram
2017-01-01
the critical characteristics of human physiology. Alternatively, three-dimensional (3D) tissue models are often developed in a low-throughput manner and lack crucial native-like architecture. The recent emergence of bioprinting technologies has enabled creating 3D tissue models that address the critical...... challenges of conventional in vitro assays through the development of custom bioinks and patient derived cells coupled with well-defined arrangements of biomaterials. Here, we provide an overview on the technological aspects of 3D bioprinting technique and discuss how the development of bioprinted tissue...... models have propelled our understanding of diseasesâ€™ characteristics (i.e. initiation and progression). The future perspectives on the use of bioprinted 3D tissue models for drug discovery application are also highlighted....
Forghani, Ali; Peralta, Richard C.
2017-10-01
The study presents a procedure using solute transport and statistical models to evaluate the performance of aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) systems designed to earn additional water rights in freshwater aquifers. The recovery effectiveness (REN) index quantifies the performance of these ASR systems. REN is the proportion of the injected water that the same ASR well can recapture during subsequent extraction periods. To estimate REN for individual ASR wells, the presented procedure uses finely discretized groundwater flow and contaminant transport modeling. Then, the procedure uses multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) analysis to identify the significant variables affecting REN, and to identify the most recovery-effective wells. Achieving REN values close to 100% is the desire of the studied 14-well ASR system operator. This recovery is feasible for most of the ASR wells by extracting three times the injectate volume during the same year as injection. Most of the wells would achieve RENs below 75% if extracting merely the same volume as they injected. In other words, recovering almost all the same water molecules that are injected requires having a pre-existing water right to extract groundwater annually. MARS shows that REN most significantly correlates with groundwater flow velocity, or hydraulic conductivity and hydraulic gradient. MARS results also demonstrate that maximizing REN requires utilizing the wells located in areas with background Darcian groundwater velocities less than 0.03 m/d. The study also highlights the superiority of MARS over regular multiple linear regressions to identify the wells that can provide the maximum REN. This is the first reported application of MARS for evaluating performance of an ASR system in fresh water aquifers.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wengang Zhang
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Piles are long, slender structural elements used to transfer the loads from the superstructure through weak strata onto stiffer soils or rocks. For driven piles, the impact of the piling hammer induces compression and tension stresses in the piles. Hence, an important design consideration is to check that the strength of the pile is sufficient to resist the stresses caused by the impact of the pile hammer. Due to its complexity, pile drivability lacks a precise analytical solution with regard to the phenomena involved. In situations where measured data or numerical hypothetical results are available, neural networks stand out in mapping the nonlinear interactions and relationships between the system's predictors and dependent responses. In addition, unlike most computational tools, no mathematical relationship assumption between the dependent and independent variables has to be made. Nevertheless, neural networks have been criticized for their long trial-and-error training process since the optimal configuration is not known a priori. This paper investigates the use of a fairly simple nonparametric regression algorithm known as multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS, as an alternative to neural networks, to approximate the relationship between the inputs and dependent response, and to mathematically interpret the relationship between the various parameters. In this paper, the Back propagation neural network (BPNN and MARS models are developed for assessing pile drivability in relation to the prediction of the Maximum compressive stresses (MCS, Maximum tensile stresses (MTS, and Blow per foot (BPF. A database of more than four thousand piles is utilized for model development and comparative performance between BPNN and MARS predictions.
Mehdizadeh, Saeid; Behmanesh, Javad; Khalili, Keivan
2017-07-01
Soil temperature (T s) and its thermal regime are the most important factors in plant growth, biological activities, and water movement in soil. Due to scarcity of the T s data, estimation of soil temperature is an important issue in different fields of sciences. The main objective of the present study is to investigate the accuracy of multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) and support vector machine (SVM) methods for estimating the T s. For this aim, the monthly mean data of the T s (at depths of 5, 10, 50, and 100 cm) and meteorological parameters of 30 synoptic stations in Iran were utilized. To develop the MARS and SVM models, various combinations of minimum, maximum, and mean air temperatures (T min, T max, T); actual and maximum possible sunshine duration; sunshine duration ratio (n, N, n/N); actual, net, and extraterrestrial solar radiation data (R s, R n, R a); precipitation (P); relative humidity (RH); wind speed at 2 m height (u 2); and water vapor pressure (Vp) were used as input variables. Three error statistics including root-mean-square-error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and determination coefficient (R 2) were used to check the performance of MARS and SVM models. The results indicated that the MARS was superior to the SVM at different depths. In the test and validation phases, the most accurate estimations for the MARS were obtained at the depth of 10 cm for T max, T min, T inputs (RMSE = 0.71 °C, MAE = 0.54 °C, and R 2 = 0.995) and for RH, V p, P, and u 2 inputs (RMSE = 0.80 °C, MAE = 0.61 °C, and R 2 = 0.996), respectively.
The Information Technology Model Curriculum
Ekstrom, Joseph J.; Gorka, Sandra; Kamali, Reza; Lawson, Eydie; Lunt, Barry; Miller, Jacob; Reichgelt, Han
2006-01-01
The last twenty years has seen the development of demand for a new type of computing professional, which has resulted in the emergence of the academic discipline of Information Technology (IT). Numerous colleges and universities across the country and abroad have responded by developing programs without the advantage of an existing model for…
Towards a Multi-Variable Parametric Cost Model for Ground and Space Telescopes
Stahl, H. Philip; Henrichs, Todd
2016-01-01
Parametric cost models can be used by designers and project managers to perform relative cost comparisons between major architectural cost drivers and allow high-level design trades; enable cost-benefit analysis for technology development investment; and, provide a basis for estimating total project cost between related concepts. This paper hypothesizes a single model, based on published models and engineering intuition, for both ground and space telescopes: OTA Cost approximately (X) D(exp (1.75 +/- 0.05)) lambda(exp(-0.5 +/- 0.25) T(exp -0.25) e (exp (-0.04)Y). Specific findings include: space telescopes cost 50X to 100X more ground telescopes; diameter is the most important CER; cost is reduced by approximately 50% every 20 years (presumably because of technology advance and process improvements); and, for space telescopes, cost associated with wavelength performance is balanced by cost associated with operating temperature. Finally, duplication only reduces cost for the manufacture of identical systems (i.e. multiple aperture sparse arrays or interferometers). And, while duplication does reduce the cost of manufacturing the mirrors of segmented primary mirror, this cost savings does not appear to manifest itself in the final primary mirror assembly (presumably because the structure for a segmented mirror is more complicated than for a monolithic mirror).
Heddam, Salim; Kisi, Ozgur
2018-04-01
In the present study, three types of artificial intelligence techniques, least square support vector machine (LSSVM), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) and M5 model tree (M5T) are applied for modeling daily dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration using several water quality variables as inputs. The DO concentration and water quality variables data from three stations operated by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) were used for developing the three models. The water quality data selected consisted of daily measured of water temperature (TE, °C), pH (std. unit), specific conductance (SC, μS/cm) and discharge (DI cfs), are used as inputs to the LSSVM, MARS and M5T models. The three models were applied for each station separately and compared to each other. According to the results obtained, it was found that: (i) the DO concentration could be successfully estimated using the three models and (ii) the best model among all others differs from one station to another.
Multivariate analysis with LISREL
Jöreskog, Karl G; Y Wallentin, Fan
2016-01-01
This book traces the theory and methodology of multivariate statistical analysis and shows how it can be conducted in practice using the LISREL computer program. It presents not only the typical uses of LISREL, such as confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation models, but also several other multivariate analysis topics, including regression (univariate, multivariate, censored, logistic, and probit), generalized linear models, multilevel analysis, and principal component analysis. It provides numerous examples from several disciplines and discusses and interprets the results, illustrated with sections of output from the LISREL program, in the context of the example. The book is intended for masters and PhD students and researchers in the social, behavioral, economic and many other sciences who require a basic understanding of multivariate statistical theory and methods for their analysis of multivariate data. It can also be used as a textbook on various topics of multivariate statistical analysis.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kallevik, H.; Hansen, Susanne Brunsgaard; Sæther, Ø.
2000-01-01
Water-in-oil emulsions are investigated by means of multivariate analysis of near infrared (NIR) spectroscopic profiles in the range 1100 - 2250 nm. The oil phase is a paraffin-diluted crude oil from the Norwegian Continental Shelf. The influence of water absorption and light scattering of the wa......Water-in-oil emulsions are investigated by means of multivariate analysis of near infrared (NIR) spectroscopic profiles in the range 1100 - 2250 nm. The oil phase is a paraffin-diluted crude oil from the Norwegian Continental Shelf. The influence of water absorption and light scattering...
Fournier, M.; Massei, N.; Dupont, J. P.; Berthe, T.; Petit, F.
2017-12-01
Karst aquifers are known to be highly vulnerable to bacterial contamination due to hydraulic connections between surface and ground water via karstic networks. In the environment, bacteria are mainly present into attached form on particles. So, it is particles contaminated by bacteria which constitute sanitary risk for drinking water and turbidity is used as a marker of sanitary hazard. But, relations between turbidity and bacteria-contaminated particles are complex. In this paper, the correlation between water turbidity and enumeration of bacteria was investigated by means of multivariate analyses to study the transport of particle-associated bacteria and to verify if turbidity is an accurate indicator of bacterial contamination. Turbidity, electrical conductivity, water discharge and sessile and planktonic bacteria concentrations of water at the infiltration point on a karst plateau and at the discharge point at a karstic spring were monitored during 2 rain events and 2 dry periods. During these events, particle transfer modalities (direct transfer of surface water to the karst spring, resuspension of intrakarstic sediments or deposition of suspended particulate matter) have been identified. Results show strong correlations, which allow the modeling of sessile and planktonic bacteria concentrations from turbidity datasets. This model accurately estimates bacteria concentrations during the periods of direct transfer of surface water to the spring, however during the resuspension and deposition periods bacteria concentrations are underestimated and overestimated, respectively. Additional lab experimentation has been realized in order to investigate the fate of E. coli (viable and culturable populations) according to the settling velocities of particles where they are attached. Results show that viable E. coli are present even when culturable E. coli are not detectable in drinking water supply. So, the karst aquifer is a permanent reservoir of viable E. coli which
The Dirichet-Multinomial model for multivariate randomized response data and small samples
Avetisyan, Marianna; Fox, Gerardus J.A.
2012-01-01
In survey sampling the randomized response (RR) technique can be used to obtain truthful answers to sensitive questions. Although the individual answers are masked due to the RR technique, individual (sensitive) response rates can be estimated when observing multivariate response data. The
Romeo, L.; Rose, K.; Bauer, J. R.; Dick, D.; Nelson, J.; Bunn, A.; Buenau, K. E.; Coleman, A. M.
2016-02-01
Increased offshore oil exploration and production emphasizes the need for environmental, social, and economic impact models that require big data from disparate sources to conduct thorough multi-scale analyses. The National Energy Technology Laboratory's Cumulative Spatial Impact Layers (CSILs) and Spatially Weighted Impact Model (SWIM) are user-driven flexible suites of GIS-based tools that can efficiently process, integrate, visualize, and analyze a wide variety of big datasets that are acquired to better to understand potential impacts for oil spill prevention and response readiness needs. These tools provide solutions to address a range of stakeholder questions and aid in prioritization decisions needed when responding to oil spills. This is particularly true when highlighting ecologically sensitive areas and spatially analyzing which species may be at risk. Model outputs provide unique geospatial visualizations of potential impacts and informational reports based on user preferences. The spatio-temporal capabilities of these tools can be leveraged to a number of anthropogenic and natural disasters enabling decision-makers to be better informed to potential impacts and response needs.
Yan, Fang-Rong; Huang, Yuan; Liu, Jun-Lin; Lu, Tao; Lin, Jin-Guan
2013-01-01
This article provides a fully bayesian approach for modeling of single-dose and complete pharmacokinetic data in a population pharmacokinetic (PK) model. To overcome the impact of outliers and the difficulty of computation, a generalized linear model is chosen with the hypothesis that the errors follow a multivariate Student t distribution which is a heavy-tailed distribution. The aim of this study is to investigate and implement the performance of the multivariate t distribution to analyze population pharmacokinetic data. Bayesian predictive inferences and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm schemes are used to process the intractable posterior integration. The precision and accuracy of the proposed model are illustrated by the simulating data and a real example of theophylline data.
Pimentel, Marco A. F.; Clifton, David A.; Ghassemi, Marzyeh; Naumann, Tristan Josef; Brennan, Thomas P; Szolovits, Peter; Feng, Mengling
2015-01-01
The ability to determine patient acuity (or severity of illness) has immediate practical use for clinicians. We evaluate the use of multivariate timeseries modeling with the multi-task Gaussian process (GP) models using noisy, incomplete, sparse, heterogeneous and unevenly-sampled clinical data, including both physiological signals and clinical notes. The learned multi-task GP (MTGP) hyperparameters are then used to assess and forecast patient acuity. Experiments were conducted with two real ...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. Bernasocchi
2012-07-01
Full Text Available In environmental change studies, often multiple variables are measured or modelled, and temporal information is essential for the task. These multivariate geographic time-series datasets are often big and difficult to analyse. While many established methods such as PCP (parallel coordinate plots, STC (space-time cubes, scatter-plots and multiple (linked visualisations help provide more information, we observe that most of the common geovisual analytics suits do not include three-dimensional (3D visualisations. However, in many environmental studies, we hypothesize that the addition of 3D terrain visualisations along with appropriate data plots and two-dimensional views can help improve the analysts’ ability to interpret the spatial relevance better. To test our ideas, we conceptualize, develop, implement and evaluate a geovisual analytics toolbox in a user-centred manner. The conceptualization of the tool is based on concrete user needs that have been identified and collected during informal brainstorming sessions and in a structured focus group session prior to the development. The design process, therefore, is based on a combination of user-centred design with a requirement analysis and agile development. Based on the findings from this phase, the toolbox was designed to have a modular structure and was built on open source geographic information systems (GIS program Quantum GIS (QGIS, thus benefiting from existing GIS functionality. The modules include a globe view for 3D terrain visualisation (OSGEarth, a scattergram, a time vs. value plot, and a 3D helix visualisation as well as the possibility to view the raw data. The visualisation frame allows real-time linking of these representations. After the design and development stage, a case study was created featuring data from Zermatt valley and the toolbox was evaluated based on expert interviews. Analysts performed multiple spatial and temporal tasks with the case study using the toolbox
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kallevik, H.; Hansen, Susanne Brunsgaard; Sæther, Ø.
2000-01-01
Water-in-oil emulsions are investigated by means of multivariate analysis of near infrared (NIR) spectroscopic profiles in the range 1100 - 2250 nm. The oil phase is a paraffin-diluted crude oil from the Norwegian Continental Shelf. The influence of water absorption and light scattering...... of the water droplets are shown to be strong. Despite the strong influence of the water phase, the NIR technique is still capable of predicting the composition of the investigated oil phase....
Monakhova, Yulia B; Diehl, Bernd W K
2016-03-22
In recent years the number of spectroscopic studies utilizing multivariate techniques and involving different laboratories has been dramatically increased. In this paper the protocol for calibration transfer of partial least square regression model between high-resolution nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectrometers of different frequencies and equipped with different probes was established. As the test system previously published quantitative model to predict the concentration of blended soy species in sunflower lecithin was used. For multivariate modelling piecewise direct standardization (PDS), direct standardization, and hybrid calibration were employed. PDS showed the best performance for estimating lecithin falsification regarding its vegetable origin resulting in a significant decrease in root mean square error of prediction from 5.0 to 7.3% without standardization to 2.9-3.2% for PDS. Acceptable calibration transfer model was obtained by direct standardization, but this standardization approach introduces unfavourable noise to the spectral data. Hybrid calibration is least recommended for high-resolution NMR data. The sensitivity of instrument transfer methods with respect to the type of spectrometer, the number of samples and the subset selection was also discussed. The study showed the necessity of applying a proper standardization procedure in cases when multivariate model has to be applied to the spectra recorded on a secondary NMR spectrometer even with the same magnetic field strength. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Stochastic models of technology diffusion
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Horner, S.M.
1978-01-01
Simple stochastic models of epidemics have often been employed by economists and sociologists in the study of the diffusion of information or new technology. In the present theoretical inquiry the properties of a family of models related to these epidemic processes are investigated, and use of the results in the study of technical change phenomena is demonstrated. A moving limit to the level of productivity of capital is hypothesized, the exact increment is determined exogenously by basic or applied research carried on outside the industry. It is this level of latent productivity (LPRO) which fills the role of the ''disease'' which ''spreads'' through the industry. In the single advance models, LPRO is assumed to have moved forward at some point in time, after which an individual firm may advance to the limit by virtue of its own research and development or through imitation of the successful efforts of another firm. In the recurrent advance models, LPRO is assumed to increase at either a constant absolute or relative rate. The firms, in the course of their research and imitation efforts, follow behind LPRO. Using the methods of stochastic processes, it is shown that these models are equivalent to ergodic Markov chains. Based on an assumption of constant intensity of R and D effort, it is shown how the single and recurrent advance models reflect on Joseph Schumpeter's hypothesis that more concentrated industries tend to be more technologically advanced than less concentrated. The results corroborate the weakest version of the hypothesis: monopoly prices need not be higher than competitive prices.
R.W. Wingbermühle (Roel); E. van Trijffel (Emiel); Nelissen, P.M. (Paul M.); B.W. Koes (Bart); A.P. Verhagen (Arianne)
2017-01-01
markdownabstractQuestion: Which multivariable prognostic model(s) for recovery in people with neck pain can be used in primary care? Design: Systematic review of studies evaluating multivariable prognostic models. Participants: People with non-specific neck pain presenting at primary care.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Barbara Namyslowska-Wilczynska
2006-01-01
Full Text Available Results applying ordinary kriging and cokriging techniques as well as the turning bands simulation method to the survey of heavy metal pollution of the superficial layer (at the depth of 0-20 cm of soil in a selected mining region of Upper Silesia (S Poland are presented. The multivariate structural analysis, estimation and conditional simulation was performed on data coming from the regional monitoring of soils. Based on estimated and the simulated cadmium and zinc heavy metal soil concentrations, the most polluted zones and places in the Dabrowa Górnicza region, where environmental monitoring should be instituted again, were determined.
Continuous multivariate exponential extension
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Block, H.W.
1975-01-01
The Freund-Weinman multivariate exponential extension is generalized to the case of nonidentically distributed marginal distributions. A fatal shock model is given for the resulting distribution. Results in the bivariate case and the concept of constant multivariate hazard rate lead to a continuous distribution related to the multivariate exponential distribution (MVE) of Marshall and Olkin. This distribution is shown to be a special case of the extended Freund-Weinman distribution. A generalization of the bivariate model of Proschan and Sullo leads to a distribution which contains both the extended Freund-Weinman distribution and the MVE
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Soto, R; Wu, Ch. H; Bubela, A M
1999-01-01
This work introduces a novel methodology to improve reservoir characterization models. In this methodology we integrated multivariate statistical analyses, and neural network models for forecasting the infill drilling ultimate oil recovery from reservoirs in San Andres and Clearfork carbonate formations in west Texas. Development of the oil recovery forecast models help us to understand the relative importance of dominant reservoir characteristics and operational variables, reproduce recoveries for units included in the database, forecast recoveries for possible new units in similar geological setting, and make operational (infill drilling) decisions. The variety of applications demands the creation of multiple recovery forecast models. We have developed intelligent software (Soto, 1998), oilfield intelligence (01), as an engineering tool to improve the characterization of oil and gas reservoirs. 01 integrates neural networks and multivariate statistical analysis. It is composed of five main subsystems: data input, preprocessing, architecture design, graphic design, and inference engine modules. One of the challenges in this research was to identify the dominant and the optimum number of independent variables. The variables include porosity, permeability, water saturation, depth, area, net thickness, gross thickness, formation volume factor, pressure, viscosity, API gravity, number of wells in initial water flooding, number of wells for primary recovery, number of infill wells over the initial water flooding, PRUR, IWUR, and IDUR. Multivariate principal component analysis is used to identify the dominant and the optimum number of independent variables. We compared the results from neural network models with the non-parametric approach. The advantage of the non-parametric regression is that it is easy to use. The disadvantage is that it retains a large variance of forecast results for a particular data set. We also used neural network concepts to develop recovery
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Abdelfattah M. Selim
2018-03-01
Full Text Available Aim: The present cross-sectional study was conducted to determine the seroprevalence and potential risk factors associated with Bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV disease in cattle and buffaloes in Egypt, to model the potential risk factors associated with the disease using logistic regression (LR models, and to fit the best predictive model for the current data. Materials and Methods: A total of 740 blood samples were collected within November 2012-March 2013 from animals aged between 6 months and 3 years. The potential risk factors studied were species, age, sex, and herd location. All serum samples were examined with indirect ELIZA test for antibody detection. Data were analyzed with different statistical approaches such as Chi-square test, odds ratios (OR, univariable, and multivariable LR models. Results: Results revealed a non-significant association between being seropositive with BVDV and all risk factors, except for species of animal. Seroprevalence percentages were 40% and 23% for cattle and buffaloes, respectively. OR for all categories were close to one with the highest OR for cattle relative to buffaloes, which was 2.237. Likelihood ratio tests showed a significant drop of the -2LL from univariable LR to multivariable LR models. Conclusion: There was an evidence of high seroprevalence of BVDV among cattle as compared with buffaloes with the possibility of infection in different age groups of animals. In addition, multivariable LR model was proved to provide more information for association and prediction purposes relative to univariable LR models and Chi-square tests if we have more than one predictor.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Luis Cláudio Lemos Correia
Full Text Available Abstract Background: Currently, there is no validated multivariate model to predict probability of obstructive coronary disease in patients with acute chest pain. Objective: To develop and validate a multivariate model to predict coronary artery disease (CAD based on variables assessed at admission to the coronary care unit (CCU due to acute chest pain. Methods: A total of 470 patients were studied, 370 utilized as the derivation sample and the subsequent 100 patients as the validation sample. As the reference standard, angiography was required to rule in CAD (stenosis ≥ 70%, while either angiography or a negative noninvasive test could be used to rule it out. As predictors, 13 baseline variables related to medical history, 14 characteristics of chest discomfort, and eight variables from physical examination or laboratory tests were tested. Results: The prevalence of CAD was 48%. By logistic regression, six variables remained independent predictors of CAD: age, male gender, relief with nitrate, signs of heart failure, positive electrocardiogram, and troponin. The area under the curve (AUC of this final model was 0.80 (95% confidence interval [95%CI] = 0.75 - 0.84 in the derivation sample and 0.86 (95%CI = 0.79 - 0.93 in the validation sample. Hosmer-Lemeshow's test indicated good calibration in both samples (p = 0.98 and p = 0.23, respectively. Compared with a basic model containing electrocardiogram and troponin, the full model provided an AUC increment of 0.07 in both derivation (p = 0.0002 and validation (p = 0.039 samples. Integrated discrimination improvement was 0.09 in both derivation (p < 0.001 and validation (p < 0.0015 samples. Conclusion: A multivariate model was derived and validated as an accurate tool for estimating the pretest probability of CAD in patients with acute chest pain.
Technology Learning Ratios in Global Energy Models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Varela, M.
2001-01-01
The process of introduction of a new technology supposes that while its production and utilisation increases, also its operation improves and its investment costs and production decreases. The accumulation of experience and learning of a new technology increase in parallel with the increase of its market share. This process is represented by the technological learning curves and the energy sector is not detached from this process of substitution of old technologies by new ones. The present paper carries out a brief revision of the main energy models that include the technology dynamics (learning). The energy scenarios, developed by global energy models, assume that the characteristics of the technologies are variables with time. But this trend is incorporated in a exogenous way in these energy models, that is to say, it is only a time function. This practice is applied to the cost indicators of the technology such as the specific investment costs or to the efficiency of the energy technologies. In the last years, the new concept of endogenous technological learning has been integrated within these global energy models. This paper examines the concept of technological learning in global energy models. It also analyses the technological dynamics of the energy system including the endogenous modelling of the process of technological progress. Finally, it makes a comparison of several of the most used global energy models (MARKAL, MESSAGE and ERIS) and, more concretely, about the use these models make of the concept of technological learning. (Author) 17 refs
Herrero Olaizola, Juan; Rodríguez Díaz, Francisco Javier; Musitu Ochoa, Gonzalo
2014-01-01
The literature has rarely paid attention to the differential influence of intergroup contact on subtle and blatant prejudice. In this study, we hypothesized that the influence of intergroup contact on subtle prejudice will be smaller than its influence on blatant prejudice. This hypothesis was tested with data from a cross-sectional design on 1,655 school-aged native Spanish adolescents. Prejudice was measured with a shortened version of the Meertens and Pettigrew scale of blatant and subtle prejudice adapted to Spanish adolescent population. Results from multivariate multilevel analyses for correlated outcome variables supported the hypothesis. Students tended to score higher on the subtle prejudice scale; contact with the outgroup was statistically related both to levels of blatant and subtle prejudice; and, the negative relationship of contact with the outgroup and prejudice is greater for blatant prejudice as compared to subtle prejudice. Overall, results provide statistical evidence supporting the greater resistance to change of subtle forms of prejudice.
Khoshravesh, Mojtaba; Sefidkouhi, Mohammad Ali Gholami; Valipour, Mohammad
2017-07-01
The proper evaluation of evapotranspiration is essential in food security investigation, farm management, pollution detection, irrigation scheduling, nutrient flows, carbon balance as well as hydrologic modeling, especially in arid environments. To achieve sustainable development and to ensure water supply, especially in arid environments, irrigation experts need tools to estimate reference evapotranspiration on a large scale. In this study, the monthly reference evapotranspiration was estimated by three different regression models including the multivariate fractional polynomial (MFP), robust regression, and Bayesian regression in Ardestan, Esfahan, and Kashan. The results were compared with Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)-Penman-Monteith (FAO-PM) to select the best model. The results show that at a monthly scale, all models provided a closer agreement with the calculated values for FAO-PM ( R 2 > 0.95 and RMSE < 12.07 mm month-1). However, the MFP model gives better estimates than the other two models for estimating reference evapotranspiration at all stations.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gholamreza Oskrochi
2016-03-01
Full Text Available In this study, four major muscles acting on the scapula were investigated in patients who had been treated in the last six years for unilateral carcinoma of the breast. Muscle activity was assessed by electromyography during abduction and adduction of the affected and unaffected arms. The main principal aim of the study was to compare shoulder muscle activity in the affected and unaffected shoulder during elevation of the arm. A multivariate linear mixed model was introduced and applied to address the principal aims. The result of fitting this model to the data shows a huge improvement as compared to the alternatives.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gloeckler, O.; Upadhyaya, B.R.
1987-01-01
Multivariate noise analysis of power reactor operating signals is useful for plant diagnostics, for isolating process and sensor anomalies, and for automated plant monitoring. In order to develop a reliable procedure, the previously established techniques for empirical modeling of fluctuation signals in power reactors have been improved. Application of the complete algorithm to operational data from the Loss-of-Fluid-Test (LOFT) Reactor showed that earlier conjectures (based on physical modeling) regarding the perturbation sources in a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) affecting coolant temperature and neutron power fluctuations can be systematically explained. This advanced methodology has important implication regarding plant diagnostics, and system or sensor anomaly isolation. 6 refs., 24 figs
Wang, Ming; Li, Zheng; Lee, Eun Young; Lewis, Mechelle M; Zhang, Lijun; Sterling, Nicholas W; Wagner, Daymond; Eslinger, Paul; Du, Guangwei; Huang, Xuemei
2017-09-25
It is challenging for current statistical models to predict clinical progression of Parkinson's disease (PD) because of the involvement of multi-domains and longitudinal data. Past univariate longitudinal or multivariate analyses from cross-sectional trials have limited power to predict individual outcomes or a single moment. The multivariate generalized linear mixed-effect model (GLMM) under the Bayesian framework was proposed to study multi-domain longitudinal outcomes obtained at baseline, 18-, and 36-month. The outcomes included motor, non-motor, and postural instability scores from the MDS-UPDRS, and demographic and standardized clinical data were utilized as covariates. The dynamic prediction was performed for both internal and external subjects using the samples from the posterior distributions of the parameter estimates and random effects, and also the predictive accuracy was evaluated based on the root of mean square error (RMSE), absolute bias (AB) and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. First, our prediction model identified clinical data that were differentially associated with motor, non-motor, and postural stability scores. Second, the predictive accuracy of our model for the training data was assessed, and improved prediction was gained in particularly for non-motor (RMSE and AB: 2.89 and 2.20) compared to univariate analysis (RMSE and AB: 3.04 and 2.35). Third, the individual-level predictions of longitudinal trajectories for the testing data were performed, with ~80% observed values falling within the 95% credible intervals. Multivariate general mixed models hold promise to predict clinical progression of individual outcomes in PD. The data was obtained from Dr. Xuemei Huang's NIH grant R01 NS060722 , part of NINDS PD Biomarker Program (PDBP). All data was entered within 24 h of collection to the Data Management Repository (DMR), which is publically available ( https://pdbp.ninds.nih.gov/data-management ).
Wang, Yiyi; Kockelman, Kara M
2013-11-01
This work examines the relationship between 3-year pedestrian crash counts across Census tracts in Austin, Texas, and various land use, network, and demographic attributes, such as land use balance, residents' access to commercial land uses, sidewalk density, lane-mile densities (by roadway class), and population and employment densities (by type). The model specification allows for region-specific heterogeneity, correlation across response types, and spatial autocorrelation via a Poisson-based multivariate conditional auto-regressive (CAR) framework and is estimated using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Least-squares regression estimates of walk-miles traveled per zone serve as the exposure measure. Here, the Poisson-lognormal multivariate CAR model outperforms an aspatial Poisson-lognormal multivariate model and a spatial model (without cross-severity correlation), both in terms of fit and inference. Positive spatial autocorrelation emerges across neighborhoods, as expected (due to latent heterogeneity or missing variables that trend in space, resulting in spatial clustering of crash counts). In comparison, the positive aspatial, bivariate cross correlation of severe (fatal or incapacitating) and non-severe crash rates reflects latent covariates that have impacts across severity levels but are more local in nature (such as lighting conditions and local sight obstructions), along with spatially lagged cross correlation. Results also suggest greater mixing of residences and commercial land uses is associated with higher pedestrian crash risk across different severity levels, ceteris paribus, presumably since such access produces more potential conflicts between pedestrian and vehicle movements. Interestingly, network densities show variable effects, and sidewalk provision is associated with lower severe-crash rates. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Modelling in Medical Technology Assessment
B.C. Michel (Bowine)
1996-01-01
textabstractHealth care is a rapidly developing field in which new technologies are introduced continuously. Not all new technologies have the same impact however: most represent only small changes in existing technologies, whereas only a few - like organ transplants - really are revolutionary new
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zouheir Mighri
2014-12-01
Full Text Available The aim of this article is to examine how the dynamics of correlations between two emerging countries (Brazil and Mexico and the US evolved from January 2003 to December 2013. The main contribution of this study is to explore whether the plunging stock market in the US, in the aftermath of global financial crisis (2007–2009, exerts contagion effects on emerging stock markets. To this end, we rely on a multivariate fractionally integrated asymmetric power autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity dynamic conditional correlation framework, which accounts for long memory, power effects, leverage terms, and time-varying correlations. The empirical analysis shows a contagion effect for Brazil and Mexico during the early stages of the global financial crisis, indicating signs of “recoupling.” Nevertheless, linkages show a general pattern of “decoupling” after the Lehman Brothers collapse. Furthermore, correlations between Brazil and the US are decreased from early 2009 onwards, implying that their dependence is larger in bearish than in bullish markets.
Saha, Ashirbani; Harowicz, Michael R; Wang, Weiyao; Mazurowski, Maciej A
2018-05-01
To determine whether multivariate machine learning models of algorithmically assessed magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) features from breast cancer patients are associated with Oncotype DX (ODX) test recurrence scores. A set of 261 female patients with invasive breast cancer, pre-operative dynamic contrast enhanced magnetic resonance (DCE-MR) images and available ODX score at our institution was identified. A computer algorithm extracted a comprehensive set of 529 features from the DCE-MR images of these patients. The set of patients was divided into a training set and a test set. Using the training set we developed two machine learning-based models to discriminate (1) high ODX scores from intermediate and low ODX scores, and (2) high and intermediate ODX scores from low ODX scores. The performance of these models was evaluated on the independent test set. High against low and intermediate ODX scores were predicted by the multivariate model with AUC 0.77 (95% CI 0.56-0.98, p replacement of ODX with imaging alone.
Multi-variable SWAT model calibration with remotely sensed evapotranspiration and observed flow
Franco, Ana Clara Lazzari; Bonumá, Nadia Bernardi
2017-01-01
ABSTRACT Although intrinsic, uncertainty for hydrological model estimation is not always reported. The aim of this study is to evaluate the use of satellite-based evapotranspiration on SWAT model calibration, regarding uncertainty and model performance in streamflow simulation. The SWAT model was calibrated in a monthly step and validated in monthly (streamflow and evapotranspiration) and daily steps (streamflow only). The validation and calibration period covers the years from 2006 to 2009 a...
Collins, G. S.; Reitsma, J. B.; Altman, D. G.; Moons, K. G. M.
2015-01-01
Prediction models are developed to aid health-care providers in estimating the probability or risk that a specific disease or condition is present (diagnostic models) or that a specific event will occur in the future (prognostic models), to inform their decision making. However, the overwhelming
Collins, Gary S.; Reitsma, Johannes B.; Altman, Douglas G.; Moons, Karel G. M.
2015-01-01
Prediction models are developed to aid health care providers in estimating the probability or risk that a specific disease or condition is present ( diagnostic models) or that a specific event will occur in the future ( prognostic models), to inform their decision making. However, the overwhelming
Multivariate statistical process control of batch processes based on three-way models
Louwerse, D. J.; Smilde, A. K.
2000-01-01
The theory of batch MSPC control charts is extended and improved control charts an developed. Unfold-PCA, PARAFAC and Tucker3 models are discussed and used as a basis for these charts. The results of the different models are compared and the performance of the control charts based on these models is
Bayesian networks for multivariate data analysis and prognostic modelling in cardiac surgery
Peek, Niels; Verduijn, Marion; Rosseel, Peter M. J.; de Jonge, Evert; de Mol, Bas A.
2007-01-01
Prognostic models are tools to predict the outcome of disease and disease treatment. These models are traditionally built with supervised machine learning techniques, and consider prognosis as a static, one-shot activity. This paper presents a new type of prognostic model that builds on the Bayesian
The affine constrained GNSS attitude model and its multivariate integer least-squares solution
Teunissen, P.J.G.
2012-01-01
A new global navigation satellite system (GNSS) carrier-phase attitude model and its solution are introduced in this contribution. This affine-constrained GNSS attitude model has the advantage that it avoids the computational complexity of the orthonormality-constrained GNSS attitude model, while it
Shi, Jinfei; Zhu, Songqing; Chen, Ruwen
2017-12-01
An order selection method based on multiple stepwise regressions is proposed for General Expression of Nonlinear Autoregressive model which converts the model order problem into the variable selection of multiple linear regression equation. The partial autocorrelation function is adopted to define the linear term in GNAR model. The result is set as the initial model, and then the nonlinear terms are introduced gradually. Statistics are chosen to study the improvements of both the new introduced and originally existed variables for the model characteristics, which are adopted to determine the model variables to retain or eliminate. So the optimal model is obtained through data fitting effect measurement or significance test. The simulation and classic time-series data experiment results show that the method proposed is simple, reliable and can be applied to practical engineering.
Phillips, Joe Scutt; Patterson, Toby A; Leroy, Bruno; Pilling, Graham M; Nicol, Simon J
2015-07-01
Analysis of complex time-series data from ecological system study requires quantitative tools for objective description and classification. These tools must take into account largely ignored problems of bias in manual classification, autocorrelation, and noise. Here we describe a method using existing estimation techniques for multivariate-normal hidden Markov models (HMMs) to develop such a classification. We use high-resolution behavioral data from bio-loggers attached to free-roaming pelagic tuna as an example. Observed patterns are assumed to be generated by an unseen Markov process that switches between several multivariate-normal distributions. Our approach is assessed in two parts. The first uses simulation experiments, from which the ability of the HMM to estimate known parameter values is examined using artificial time series of data consistent with hypotheses about pelagic predator foraging ecology. The second is the application to time series of continuous vertical movement data from yellowfin and bigeye tuna taken from tuna tagging experiments. These data were compressed into summary metrics capturing the variation of patterns in diving behavior and formed into a multivariate time series used to estimate a HMM. Each observation was associated with covariate information incorporating the effect of day and night on behavioral switching. Known parameter values were well recovered by the HMMs in our simulation experiments, resulting in mean correct classification rates of 90-97%, although some variance-covariance parameters were estimated less accurately. HMMs with two distinct behavioral states were selected for every time series of real tuna data, predicting a shallow warm state, which was similar across all individuals, and a deep colder state, which was more variable. Marked diurnal behavioral switching was predicted, consistent with many previous empirical studies on tuna. HMMs provide easily interpretable models for the objective classification of
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Harris, Candace [Florida Agriculture & Mechanic Univ.; Profeta, Luisa [Alakai Defense Systems, Inc.; Akpovo, Codjo [Florida Agriculture & Mechanic Univ.; Stowe, Ashley [Y-12 National Security Complex, Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Johnson, Lewis [Florida Agriculture & Mechanic Univ.
2017-10-09
The psuedo univariate limit of detection was calculated to compare to the multivariate interval. ompared with results from the psuedounivariate LOD, the multivariate LOD includes other factors (i.e. signal uncertainties) and the reveals the significance in creating models that not only use the analyte’s emission line but also its entire molecular spectra.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Skjærbæk, P. S.; Nielsen, Søren R. K.; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning
1997-01-01
the only ones activated in ground motion shaking of structures. For purely frequency identification, FFT, ARV, ERA and ARMAV models are applied and for mode shape identification, multi-variate ARV and ARMAV models and the ERA are used. Furthermore the results of a finite element analysis are included......The scope of the paper is to apply multi-variate time-domain models for identification of eginfrequencies and mode shapes of a time- invariant model test Reinforced Concrete (RC) frame from measured decays. The frequencies and mode shapes of interest are the two lowest ones since they are normally...... in the comparison. The data investigated are sampled from a laboratory model of a plane 6-storey, 2-bay RC-frame. The laboratory model is excited at the top storey where two different types of excitation where considered. In the first case the structure was excited in the first mode and in the second case...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Skjærbæk, P. S.; Nielsen, Søren R. K.; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning
the only ones activated in ground motion shaking of structures. For purely frequency identification, FFT, ARV, ERA and ARMAV models are applied and for mode shape identification, multi-variate ARV and ARMAV models and the ERA are used. Furthermore the results of a finite element analysis are included......The scope of the paper is to apply multi-variate time-domain models for identification of eginfrequencies and mode shapes of a time- invariant model test Reinforced Concrete (RC) frame from measured decays. The frequencies and mode shapes of interest are the two lowest ones since they are normally...... in the comparison. The data investigated are sampled from a laboratory model of a plane 6-storey, 2-bay RC-frame. The laboratory model is excited at the top storey where two different types of excitation where considered. In the first case the structure was excited in the first mode and in the second case...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wenlei Bai
2017-12-01
Full Text Available The deterministic methods generally used to solve DC optimal power flow (OPF do not fully capture the uncertainty information in wind power, and thus their solutions could be suboptimal. However, the stochastic dynamic AC OPF problem can be used to find an optimal solution by fully capturing the uncertainty information of wind power. That uncertainty information of future wind power can be well represented by the short-term future wind power scenarios that are forecasted using the generalized dynamic factor model (GDFM—a novel multivariate statistical wind power forecasting model. Furthermore, the GDFM can accurately represent the spatial and temporal correlations among wind farms through the multivariate stochastic process. Fully capturing the uncertainty information in the spatially and temporally correlated GDFM scenarios can lead to a better AC OPF solution under a high penetration level of wind power. Since the GDFM is a factor analysis based model, the computational time can also be reduced. In order to further reduce the computational time, a modified artificial bee colony (ABC algorithm is used to solve the AC OPF problem based on the GDFM forecasting scenarios. Using the modified ABC algorithm based on the GDFM forecasting scenarios has resulted in better AC OPF’ solutions on an IEEE 118-bus system at every hour for 24 h.
Takagi-Sugeno Neuro-Fuzzy Modeling of a Multivariable Nonlinear Antenna System
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
E. A. Al-Gallaf
2005-12-01
Full Text Available This article investigates the use of a clustered based neuro-fuzzy system to nonlinear dynamic system modeling. It is focused on the modeling via Takagi-Sugeno (T-S modeling procedure and the employment of fuzzy clustering to generate suitable initial membership functions. The T-S fuzzy modeling has been applied to model a nonlinear antenna dynamic system with two coupled inputs and outputs. Compared to other well-known approximation techniques such as artificial neural networks, the employed neuro-fuzzy system has provided a more transparent representation of the nonlinear antenna system under study, mainly due to the possible linguistic interpretation in the form of rules. Created initial memberships are then employed to construct suitable T-S models. Furthermore, the T-S fuzzy models have been validated and checked through the use of some standard model validation techniques (like the correlation functions. This intelligent modeling scheme is very useful once making complicated systems linguistically transparent in terms of the fuzzy if-then rules.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hansen, Peter Reinhard; Lunde, Asger; Voev, Valeri
the model to market returns in conjunction with an individual asset yields a model for the conditional regression coefficient, known as the beta. We apply the model to a set of highly liquid stocks and find that conditional betas are much more variable than usually observed with rolling-window OLS...... regressions with dailty data. In the empirical part of the paper we examine the cross-sectional as well as the time variation of the conditional beta series. The model links the conditional and realized second moment measures in a self-contained system of equations, making it amenable to extensions and easy...
Multivariate bubbles and antibubbles
Fry, John
2014-08-01
In this paper we develop models for multivariate financial bubbles and antibubbles based on statistical physics. In particular, we extend a rich set of univariate models to higher dimensions. Changes in market regime can be explicitly shown to represent a phase transition from random to deterministic behaviour in prices. Moreover, our multivariate models are able to capture some of the contagious effects that occur during such episodes. We are able to show that declining lending quality helped fuel a bubble in the US stock market prior to 2008. Further, our approach offers interesting insights into the spatial development of UK house prices.
Anacleto, Osvaldo; Queen, Catriona; Albers, Casper J.
Traffic flow data are routinely collected for many networks worldwide. These invariably large data sets can be used as part of a traffic management system, for which good traffic flow forecasting models are crucial. The linear multiregression dynamic model (LMDM) has been shown to be promising for
Multivariate models of subjective caregiver burden in dementia: A systematic review
van der Lee, J.H.; Bakker, T.J.E.M.; Duivenvoorden, H.J.; Dröes, R.M.
2014-01-01
Background: Burden in dementia caregivers is a complex and multidimensional construct. Several models of burden and other representations of burden like depression or mental health are described in literature. To clarify the state of science, we systematically reviewed complex models that include
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jiabin Chen
2015-08-01
Conclusion: Differentiation between borderline and invasive ovarian tumors can be achieved using a model based on the following criteria: menopausal status; cancer antigen 125 level; and ultrasound parameters. The model is helpful to oncologists and patients in the initial evaluation phase of ovarian tumors.
Hancewicz, Thomas M; Xiao, Chunhong; Zhang, Shuliang; Misra, Manoj
2013-12-01
In vivo confocal Raman spectroscopy has become the measurement technique of choice for skin health and skin care related communities as a way of measuring functional chemistry aspects of skin that are key indicators for care and treatment of various skin conditions. Chief among these techniques are stratum corneum water content, a critical health indicator for severe skin condition related to dryness, and natural moisturizing factor components that are associated with skin protection and barrier health. In addition, in vivo Raman spectroscopy has proven to be a rapid and effective method for quantifying component penetration in skin for topically applied skin care formulations. The benefit of such a capability is that noninvasive analytical chemistry can be performed in vivo in a clinical setting, significantly simplifying studies aimed at evaluating product performance. This presumes, however, that the data and analysis methods used are compatible and appropriate for the intended purpose. The standard analysis method used by most researchers for in vivo Raman data is ordinary least squares (OLS) regression. The focus of work described in this paper is the applicability of OLS for in vivo Raman analysis with particular attention given to use for non-ideal data that often violate the inherent limitations and deficiencies associated with proper application of OLS. We then describe a newly developed in vivo Raman spectroscopic analysis methodology called multivariate curve resolution-augmented ordinary least squares (MCR-OLS), a relatively simple route to addressing many of the issues with OLS. The method is compared with the standard OLS method using the same in vivo Raman data set and using both qualitative and quantitative comparisons based on model fit error, adherence to known data constraints, and performance against calibration samples. A clear improvement is shown in each comparison for MCR-OLS over standard OLS, thus supporting the premise that the MCR
Advanced Manufacturing Technologies (AMT): Composites Integrated Modeling
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Composites Integrated Modeling (CIM) Element developed low cost, lightweight, and efficient composite structures, materials and manufacturing technologies with...
Belykh, Evgenii; Krutko, Alexander V; Baykov, Evgenii S; Giers, Morgan B; Preul, Mark C; Byvaltsev, Vadim A
2017-03-01
Recurrence of lumbar disc herniation (rLDH) is one of the unfavorable outcomes after microdiscectomy. Prediction of the patient population with increased risk of rLDH is important because patients may benefit from preventive measures or other surgical options. The study assessed preoperative factors associated with rLDH after microdiscectomy and created a mathematical model for estimation of chances for rLDH. This is a retrospective case-control study. The study includes patients who underwent microdiscectomy for LDH. Lumbar disc herniation recurrence was determined using magnetic resonance imaging. The study included 350 patients with LDH and a minimum of 3 years of follow-up. Patients underwent microdiscectomy for LDH at the L4-L5 and L5-S1 levels from 2008 to 2012. Patients were divided into two groups to identify predictors of recurrence: those who developed rLDH (n=50) within 3 years and those who did not develop rLDH (n=300) within the same follow-up period. Multivariate analysis was performed using patient baseline clinical and radiography data. Non-linear, multivariate, logistic regression analysis was used to build a predictive model. Recurrence of LDH occurred within 1 to 48 months after microdiscectomy. Preoperatively, patients who developed rLDH were smokers (70% vs. 27%, pnon-linear modeling allowed for more accurate prediction of rLDH (90% correct prediction of rLDH; 99% correct prediction of no rLDH) than other univariate logit models. Preoperative radiographic parameters in patients with LDH can be used to assess the risk of recurrence after microdiscectomy. The multifactorial non-linear model provided more accurate rLDH probability estimation than the univariate analyses. The software developed from this model may be implemented during patient counseling or decision making when choosing the type of primary surgery for LDH. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Zhou, Chengfeng; Jiang, Wei; Cheng, Qingzheng; Via, Brian K.
2015-01-01
This research addressed a rapid method to monitor hardwood chemical composition by applying Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy, with particular interest in model performance for interpretation and prediction. Partial least squares (PLS) and principal components regression (PCR) were chosen as the primary models for comparison. Standard laboratory chemistry methods were employed on a mixed genus/species hardwood sample set to collect the original data. PLS was found to provide bet...
Content-adaptive pentary steganography using the multivariate generalized Gaussian cover model
Sedighi, Vahid; Fridrich, Jessica; Cogranne, Rémi
2015-03-01
The vast majority of steganographic schemes for digital images stored in the raster format limit the amplitude of embedding changes to the smallest possible value. In this paper, we investigate the possibility to further improve the empirical security by allowing the embedding changes in highly textured areas to have a larger amplitude and thus embedding there a larger payload. Our approach is entirely model driven in the sense that the probabilities with which the cover pixels should be changed by a certain amount are derived from the cover model to minimize the power of an optimal statistical test. The embedding consists of two steps. First, the sender estimates the cover model parameters, the pixel variances, when modeling the pixels as a sequence of independent but not identically distributed generalized Gaussian random variables. Then, the embedding change probabilities for changing each pixel by 1 or 2, which can be transformed to costs for practical embedding using syndrome-trellis codes, are computed by solving a pair of non-linear algebraic equations. Using rich models and selection-channel-aware features, we compare the security of our scheme based on the generalized Gaussian model with pentary versions of two popular embedding algorithms: HILL and S-UNIWARD.
Technology and Online Education: Models for Change
Cook, Catherine W.; Sonnenberg, Christian
2014-01-01
This paper contends that technology changes advance online education. A number of mobile computing and transformative technologies will be examined and incorporated into a descriptive study. The object of the study will be to design innovative mobile awareness models seeking to understand technology changes for mobile devices and how they can be…
Industrial diffusion models and technological standardization
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Carrillo-Hermosilla, J.
2007-01-01
Conventional models of technology diffusion have typically focused on the question of the rate of diffusion at which one new technology is fully adopted. The model described here provides a broader approach, from the perspective the extension of the diffusion of multiple technologies, and the related phenomenon of standardization. Moreover, most conventional research has characterized the diffusion process in terms of technology attributes or adopting firms attributes. Alternatively, we propose here a wide-ranging and consistent taxonomy of the relationships between the circumstances of an industry and the attributes of the technology standardization processes taking place within it. (Author) 100 refs
Multivariate sensitivity analysis to measure global contribution of input factors in dynamic models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lamboni, Matieyendou; Monod, Herve; Makowski, David
2011-01-01
Many dynamic models are used for risk assessment and decision support in ecology and crop science. Such models generate time-dependent model predictions, with time either discretised or continuous. Their global sensitivity analysis is usually applied separately on each time output, but Campbell et al. (2006 ) advocated global sensitivity analyses on the expansion of the dynamics in a well-chosen functional basis. This paper focuses on the particular case when principal components analysis is combined with analysis of variance. In addition to the indices associated with the principal components, generalised sensitivity indices are proposed to synthesize the influence of each parameter on the whole time series output. Index definitions are given when the uncertainty on the input factors is either discrete or continuous and when the dynamic model is either discrete or functional. A general estimation algorithm is proposed, based on classical methods of global sensitivity analysis. The method is applied to a dynamic wheat crop model with 13 uncertain parameters. Three methods of global sensitivity analysis are compared: the Sobol'-Saltelli method, the extended FAST method, and the fractional factorial design of resolution 6.
Carisi, Francesca; Domeneghetti, Alessio; Kreibich, Heidi; Schröter, Kai; Castellarin, Attilio
2017-04-01
Flood risk is function of flood hazard and vulnerability, therefore its accurate assessment depends on a reliable quantification of both factors. The scientific literature proposes a number of objective and reliable methods for assessing flood hazard, yet it highlights a limited understanding of the fundamental damage processes. Loss modelling is associated with large uncertainty which is, among other factors, due to a lack of standard procedures; for instance, flood losses are often estimated based on damage models derived in completely different contexts (i.e. different countries or geographical regions) without checking its applicability, or by considering only one explanatory variable (i.e. typically water depth). We consider the Secchia river flood event of January 2014, when a sudden levee-breach caused the inundation of nearly 200 km2 in Northern Italy. In the aftermath of this event, local authorities collected flood loss data, together with additional information on affected private households and industrial activities (e.g. buildings surface and economic value, number of company's employees and others). Based on these data we implemented and compared a quadratic-regression damage function, with water depth as the only explanatory variable, and a multi-variable model that combines multiple regression trees and considers several explanatory variables (i.e. bagging decision trees). Our results show the importance of data collection revealing that (1) a simple quadratic regression damage function based on empirical data from the study area can be significantly more accurate than literature damage-models derived for a different context and (2) multi-variable modelling may outperform the uni-variable approach, yet it is more difficult to develop and apply due to a much higher demand of detailed data.
Multivariate power-law models for streamflow prediction in the Mekong Basin
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Guillaume Lacombe
2014-11-01
New hydrological insights for the region: A combination of 3–6 explanatory variables – chosen among annual rainfall, drainage area, perimeter, elevation, slope, drainage density and latitude – is sufficient to predict a range of flow metrics with a prediction R-squared ranging from 84 to 95%. The inclusion of forest or paddy percentage coverage as an additional explanatory variable led to slight improvements in the predictive power of some of the low-flow models (lowest prediction R-squared = 89%. A physical interpretation of the model structure was possible for most of the resulting relationships. Compared to regional regression models developed in other parts of the world, this new set of equations performs reasonably well.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Baadsgaard, Mikkel; Nielsen, Jan Nygaard; Madsen, Henrik
2000-01-01
An econometric analysis of continuous-timemodels of the term structure of interest rates is presented. A panel of coupon bond prices with different maturities is used to estimate the embedded parameters of a continuous-discrete state space model of unobserved state variables: the spot interest rate......, the central tendency and stochastic volatility. Emphasis is placed on the particular class of exponential-affine term structure models that permits solving the bond pricing PDE in terms of a system of ODEs. It is assumed that coupon bond prices are contaminated by additive white noise, where the stochastic...... and empirical results based on the Danish bond market are presented....
Forecasting Euro Area Inflation Using Single-Equation and Multivariate VAR–Models
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Gerdesmeier Dieter
2017-12-01
Full Text Available Forecasting inflation is of key relevance for central banks, not least because the objective of low and stable inflation is embodied in most central banks’ mandates and the monetary policy transmission mechanism is well known to be subject to long and variable lags. To our best knowledge, central banks around the world use conditional as well as unconditional forecasts for such purposes. Turning to unconditional forecasts, these can be derived on the basis of structural and non-structural models. Among the latter, vector autoregressive (VAR-models are among the most popular tools.
Exploring causal networks of bovine milk fatty acids in a multivariate mixed model context
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bouwman, Aniek C; Valente, Bruno D; Janss, Luc L G
2014-01-01
Knowledge regarding causal relationships among traits is important to understand complex biological systems. Structural equation models (SEM) can be used to quantify the causal relations between traits, which allow prediction of outcomes to interventions applied to such a network. Such models...... are fitted conditionally on a causal structure among traits, represented by a directed acyclic graph and an Inductive Causation (IC) algorithm can be used to search for causal structures. The aim of this study was to explore the space of causal structures involving bovine milk fatty acids and to select...
Multivariate Dynamic Modeling to Investigate Human Adaptation to Space Flight: Initial Concepts
Shelhamer, Mark; Mindock, Jennifer; Zeffiro, Tom; Krakauer, David; Paloski, William H.; Lumpkins, Sarah
2014-01-01
The array of physiological changes that occur when humans venture into space for long periods presents a challenge to future exploration. The changes are conventionally investigated independently, but a complete understanding of adaptation requires a conceptual basis founded in integrative physiology, aided by appropriate mathematical modeling. NASA is in the early stages of developing such an approach.
Multivariate Dynamical Modeling to Investigate Human Adaptation to Space Flight: Initial Concepts
Shelhamer, Mark; Mindock, Jennifer; Zeffiro, Tom; Krakauer, David; Paloski, William H.; Lumpkins, Sarah
2014-01-01
The array of physiological changes that occur when humans venture into space for long periods presents a challenge to future exploration. The changes are conventionally investigated independently, but a complete understanding of adaptation requires a conceptual basis founded in intergrative physiology, aided by appropriate mathematical modeling. NASA is in the early stages of developing such an approach.
This paper assesses the impact of different likelihood functions in identifying sensitive parameters of the highly parameterized, spatially distributed Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) watershed model for multiple variables at multiple sites. The global one-factor-at-a-time (OAT) method of Morr...
Payne, Beth A.; Groen, Henk; Ukah, U. Vivian; Ansermino, J. Mark; Bhutta, Zulfiqar; Grobman, William; Hall, David R.; Hutcheon, Jennifer A.; Magee, Laura A.; von Dadelszen, Peter
2015-01-01
Objective: To develop and internally validate a prognostic model for perinatal death that could guide community-based antenatal care of women with a hypertensive disorder of pregnancy (HDP) in low-resourced settings as part of a mobile health application. Study design: Using data from 1688 women
A multivariate multilevel approach to the modeling of accuracy and speed of test takers
Klein Entink, R.H.; Fox, Gerardus J.A.; van der Linden, Willem J.
2009-01-01
Response times on test items are easily collected in modern computerized testing. When collecting both (binary) responses and (continuous) response times on test items, it is possible to measure the accuracy and speed of test takers. To study the relationships between these two constructs, the model
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Tao Gao
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Extreme precipitation is likely to be one of the most severe meteorological disasters in China; however, studies on the physical factors affecting precipitation extremes and corresponding prediction models are not accurately available. From a new point of view, the sensible heat flux (SHF and latent heat flux (LHF, which have significant impacts on summer extreme rainfall in Yangtze River basin (YRB, have been quantified and then selections of the impact factors are conducted. Firstly, a regional extreme precipitation index was applied to determine Regions of Significant Correlation (RSC by analyzing spatial distribution of correlation coefficients between this index and SHF, LHF, and sea surface temperature (SST on global ocean scale; then the time series of SHF, LHF, and SST in RSCs during 1967–2010 were selected. Furthermore, other factors that significantly affect variations in precipitation extremes over YRB were also selected. The methods of multiple stepwise regression and leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV were utilized to analyze and test influencing factors and statistical prediction model. The correlation coefficient between observed regional extreme index and model simulation result is 0.85, with significant level at 99%. This suggested that the forecast skill was acceptable although many aspects of the prediction model should be improved.
A multivariable model for predicting the frictional behaviour and hydration of the human skin
Veijgen, N.K.; Heide, E. van der; Masen, M.A.
2013-01-01
Background: The frictional characteristics of skin-object interactions are important when handling objects, in the assessment of perception and comfort of products and materials and in the origins and prevention of skin injuries. In this study, based on statistical methods, a quantitative model is
A multivariable model for predicting the frictional behaviour and hydration of the human skin
Veijgen, N.K.; van der Heide, Emile; Masen, Marc Arthur
2013-01-01
Background The frictional characteristics of skin-object interactions are important when handling objects, in the assessment of perception and comfort of products and materials and in the origins and prevention of skin injuries. In this study, based on statistical methods, a quantitative model is
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Zeren Fatma
2010-01-01
Full Text Available This paper tries to examine the long run relationships between the aggregate consumer prices and some cost-based components for the Turkish economy. Based on a simple economic model of the macro-scaled price formation, multivariate cointegration techniques have been applied to test whether the real data support the a priori model construction. The results reveal that all of the factors, related to the price determination, have a positive impact on the consumer prices as expected. We find that the most significant component contributing to the price setting is the nominal exchange rate depreciation. We also cannot reject the linear homogeneity of the sum of all the price data as to the domestic inflation. The paper concludes that the Turkish consumer prices have in fact a strong cost-push component that contributes to the aggregate pricing.
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Angela Koutsokera
2017-07-01
Full Text Available BackgroundChronic lung allograft dysfunction and its main phenotypes, bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome (BOS and restrictive allograft syndrome (RAS, are major causes of mortality after lung transplantation (LT. RAS and early-onset BOS, developing within 3 years after LT, are associated with particularly inferior clinical outcomes. Prediction models for early-onset BOS and RAS have not been previously described.MethodsLT recipients of the French and Swiss transplant cohorts were eligible for inclusion in the SysCLAD cohort if they were alive with at least 2 years of follow-up but less than 3 years, or if they died or were retransplanted at any time less than 3 years. These patients were assessed for early-onset BOS, RAS, or stable allograft function by an adjudication committee. Baseline characteristics, data on surgery, immunosuppression, and year-1 follow-up were collected. Prediction models for BOS and RAS were developed using multivariate logistic regression and multivariate multinomial analysis.ResultsAmong patients fulfilling the eligibility criteria, we identified 149 stable, 51 BOS, and 30 RAS subjects. The best prediction model for early-onset BOS and RAS included the underlying diagnosis, induction treatment, immunosuppression, and year-1 class II donor-specific antibodies (DSAs. Within this model, class II DSAs were associated with BOS and RAS, whereas pre-LT diagnoses of interstitial lung disease and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease were associated with RAS.ConclusionAlthough these findings need further validation, results indicate that specific baseline and year-1 parameters may serve as predictors of BOS or RAS by 3 years post-LT. Their identification may allow intervention or guide risk stratification, aiming for an individualized patient management approach.
Two Phase Analysis of Ski Schools Customer Satisfaction: Multivariate Ranking and Cub Models
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Rosa Arboretti
2014-06-01
Full Text Available Monitoring tourists' opinions is an important issue also for companies providing sport services. The aim of this paper was to apply CUB models and nonparametric permutation methods to a large customer satisfaction survey performed in 2011 in the ski schools of Alto Adige (Italy. The two-phase data processing was mainly aimed to: establish a global ranking of a sample of five ski schools, on the basis of satisfaction scores for several specific service aspects; to estimate specific components of the respondents’ evaluation process (feeling and uncertainty and to detect if customers’ characteristics affected these two components. With the application of NPC-Global ranking we obtained a ranking of the evaluated ski schools simultaneously considering satisfaction scores of several service’s aspects. CUB models showed which aspects and subgroups were less satisfied giving tips on how to improve services and customer satisfaction.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Carvajal Escobar Yesid; Munoz, Flor Matilde
2007-01-01
The project this centred in the revision of the state of the art of the ocean-atmospheric phenomena that you affect the Colombian hydrology especially The Phenomenon Enos that causes a socioeconomic impact of first order in our country, it has not been sufficiently studied; therefore it is important to approach the thematic one, including the variable macroclimates associated to the Enos in the analyses of water planning. The analyses include revision of statistical techniques of analysis of consistency of hydrological data with the objective of conforming a database of monthly flow of the river reliable and homogeneous Cauca. Statistical methods are used (Analysis of data multivariante) specifically The analysis of principal components to involve them in the development of models of prediction of flows monthly means in the river Cauca involving the Lineal focus as they are the model autoregressive AR, ARX and Armax and the focus non lineal Net Artificial Network.
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Chengfeng Zhou
2015-01-01
Full Text Available This research addressed a rapid method to monitor hardwood chemical composition by applying Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR spectroscopy, with particular interest in model performance for interpretation and prediction. Partial least squares (PLS and principal components regression (PCR were chosen as the primary models for comparison. Standard laboratory chemistry methods were employed on a mixed genus/species hardwood sample set to collect the original data. PLS was found to provide better predictive capability while PCR exhibited a more precise estimate of loading peaks and suggests that PCR is better for model interpretation of key underlying functional groups. Specifically, when PCR was utilized, an error in peak loading of ±15 cm−1 from the true mean was quantified. Application of the first derivative appeared to assist in improving both PCR and PLS loading precision. Research results identified the wavenumbers important in the prediction of extractives, lignin, cellulose, and hemicellulose and further demonstrated the utility in FT-IR for rapid monitoring of wood chemistry.
Cheng, Wen; Gill, Gurdiljot Singh; Sakrani, Taha; Dasu, Mohan; Zhou, Jiao
2017-11-01
Motorcycle crashes constitute a very high proportion of the overall motor vehicle fatalities in the United States, and many studies have examined the influential factors under various conditions. However, research on the impact of weather conditions on the motorcycle crash severity is not well documented. In this study, we examined the impact of weather conditions on motorcycle crash injuries at four different severity levels using San Francisco motorcycle crash injury data. Five models were developed using Full Bayesian formulation accounting for different correlations commonly seen in crash data and then compared for fitness and performance. Results indicate that the models with serial and severity variations of parameters had superior fit, and the capability of accurate crash prediction. The inferences from the parameter estimates from the five models were: an increase in the air temperature reduced the possibility of a fatal crash but had a reverse impact on crashes of other severity levels; humidity in air was not observed to have a predictable or strong impact on crashes; the occurrence of rainfall decreased the possibility of crashes for all severity levels. Transportation agencies might benefit from the research results to improve road safety by providing motorcyclists with information regarding the risk of certain crash severity levels for special weather conditions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Bayes Wavelet Regression Approach to Solve Problems in Multivariable Calibration Modeling
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Setiawan Setiawan
2010-05-01
Full Text Available In the multiple regression modeling, a serious problems would arise if the independent variables are correlated among each other (the problem of ill conditioned and the number of observations is much smaller than the number of independent variables (the problem of singularity. Bayes Regression (BR is an approach that can be used to solve the problem of ill conditioned, but computing constraints will be experienced, so pre-processing methods will be necessary in the form of dimensional reduction of independent variables. The results of empirical studies and literature shows that the discrete wavelet transform (WT gives estimation results of regression model which is better than the other preprocessing methods. This experiment will study a combination of BR with WT as pre-processing method to solve the problems ill conditioned and singularities. One application of calibration in the field of chemistry is relationship modeling between the concentration of active substance as measured by High Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC with Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR absorbance spectrum. Spectrum pattern is expected to predict the value of the concentration of active substance. The exploration of Continuum Regression Wavelet Transform (CR-WT, and Partial Least Squares Regression Wavelet Transform (PLS-WT, and Bayes Regression Wavelet Transform (BR-WT shows that the BR-WT has a good performance. BR-WT is superior than PLS-WT method, and relatively is as good as CR-WT method.
A Model Technology Educator: Thomas A. Edison
Pretzer, William S.; Rogers, George E.; Bush, Jeffery
2007-01-01
Reflecting back over a century ago to the small village of Menlo Park, New Jersey provides insight into a remarkable visionary and an exceptional role model for today's problem-solving and design-focused technology educator: Thomas A. Edison, inventor, innovator, and model technology educator. Since Edison could not simply apply existing knowledge…
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bortolet, P.
1998-12-11
During these last two decades, the growing awareness of the contribution of the automobile to the degradation of the environment has forces different figures from the transportation world to put automobiles under more and more severe controls. Fuzzy logic is a technique which allows for the taking into account of experts knowledge; the most recent research work has moreover shown interest in associating fuzzy logic with algorithmic control techniques (adaptive control, robust control...). Our research work can be broken down into three distinct parts: a theoretical approach concerning the methods of fuzzy modeling permitting one to achieve models of the type Takagi-Sugeno and to use them in the synthesis of controls; the work of physical modeling of a four-stroke direct injection gas motor in collaboration with the development teams from Siemens Automotive SA; the simulated application of fuzzy modeling techniques and of fuzzy control developed on a theoretical level to a four-stroke direct injection gas motor. (author) 105 refs.
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Carlo Baldassi
Full Text Available In the course of evolution, proteins show a remarkable conservation of their three-dimensional structure and their biological function, leading to strong evolutionary constraints on the sequence variability between homologous proteins. Our method aims at extracting such constraints from rapidly accumulating sequence data, and thereby at inferring protein structure and function from sequence information alone. Recently, global statistical inference methods (e.g. direct-coupling analysis, sparse inverse covariance estimation have achieved a breakthrough towards this aim, and their predictions have been successfully implemented into tertiary and quaternary protein structure prediction methods. However, due to the discrete nature of the underlying variable (amino-acids, exact inference requires exponential time in the protein length, and efficient approximations are needed for practical applicability. Here we propose a very efficient multivariate Gaussian modeling approach as a variant of direct-coupling analysis: the discrete amino-acid variables are replaced by continuous Gaussian random variables. The resulting statistical inference problem is efficiently and exactly solvable. We show that the quality of inference is comparable or superior to the one achieved by mean-field approximations to inference with discrete variables, as done by direct-coupling analysis. This is true for (i the prediction of residue-residue contacts in proteins, and (ii the identification of protein-protein interaction partner in bacterial signal transduction. An implementation of our multivariate Gaussian approach is available at the website http://areeweb.polito.it/ricerca/cmp/code.
Baldassi, Carlo; Zamparo, Marco; Feinauer, Christoph; Procaccini, Andrea; Zecchina, Riccardo; Weigt, Martin; Pagnani, Andrea
2014-01-01
In the course of evolution, proteins show a remarkable conservation of their three-dimensional structure and their biological function, leading to strong evolutionary constraints on the sequence variability between homologous proteins. Our method aims at extracting such constraints from rapidly accumulating sequence data, and thereby at inferring protein structure and function from sequence information alone. Recently, global statistical inference methods (e.g. direct-coupling analysis, sparse inverse covariance estimation) have achieved a breakthrough towards this aim, and their predictions have been successfully implemented into tertiary and quaternary protein structure prediction methods. However, due to the discrete nature of the underlying variable (amino-acids), exact inference requires exponential time in the protein length, and efficient approximations are needed for practical applicability. Here we propose a very efficient multivariate Gaussian modeling approach as a variant of direct-coupling analysis: the discrete amino-acid variables are replaced by continuous Gaussian random variables. The resulting statistical inference problem is efficiently and exactly solvable. We show that the quality of inference is comparable or superior to the one achieved by mean-field approximations to inference with discrete variables, as done by direct-coupling analysis. This is true for (i) the prediction of residue-residue contacts in proteins, and (ii) the identification of protein-protein interaction partner in bacterial signal transduction. An implementation of our multivariate Gaussian approach is available at the website http://areeweb.polito.it/ricerca/cmp/code.
A multivariate dynamic systems model for psychotherapy with more than one client
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Butner, Jonathan E.; Deits-Lebehn, Carlene; Crenshaw, Alexander O.
2017-01-01
The dynamics of the give and take between therapist and client(s) is frequently of interest to therapy process researchers. Characterizing the ways that therapists respond to clients and clients respond to therapists can be challenging in therapeutic encounters involving a single therapist...... cross-lagged panel models can be extended to psychotherapeutic encounters involving 3 people and used to test processes that exist between dyadic subsets of the larger group as well as the group as one cohesive unit. Three hundred seventy-nine talk turns of fundamental frequency from a couple therapy...
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Soyoung Park
2017-07-01
Full Text Available This study mapped and analyzed groundwater potential using two different models, logistic regression (LR and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS, and compared the results. A spatial database was constructed for groundwater well data and groundwater influence factors. Groundwater well data with a high potential yield of ≥70 m3/d were extracted, and 859 locations (70% were used for model training, whereas the other 365 locations (30% were used for model validation. We analyzed 16 groundwater influence factors including altitude, slope degree, slope aspect, plan curvature, profile curvature, topographic wetness index, stream power index, sediment transport index, distance from drainage, drainage density, lithology, distance from fault, fault density, distance from lineament, lineament density, and land cover. Groundwater potential maps (GPMs were constructed using LR and MARS models and tested using a receiver operating characteristics curve. Based on this analysis, the area under the curve (AUC for the success rate curve of GPMs created using the MARS and LR models was 0.867 and 0.838, and the AUC for the prediction rate curve was 0.836 and 0.801, respectively. This implies that the MARS model is useful and effective for groundwater potential analysis in the study area.
Collins, Gary S; Reitsma, Johannes B; Altman, Douglas G; Moons, Karel G M
2015-01-13
Prediction models are developed to aid health care providers in estimating the probability or risk that a specific disease or condition is present (diagnostic models) or that a specific event will occur in the future (prognostic models), to inform their decision making. However, the overwhelming evidence shows that the quality of reporting of prediction model studies is poor. Only with full and clear reporting of information on all aspects of a prediction model can risk of bias and potential usefulness of prediction models be adequately assessed. The Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) Initiative developed a set of recommendations for the reporting of studies developing, validating, or updating a prediction model, whether for diagnostic or prognostic purposes. This article describes how the TRIPOD Statement was developed. An extensive list of items based on a review of the literature was created, which was reduced after a Web-based survey and revised during a 3-day meeting in June 2011 with methodologists, health care professionals, and journal editors. The list was refined during several meetings of the steering group and in e-mail discussions with the wider group of TRIPOD contributors. The resulting TRIPOD Statement is a checklist of 22 items, deemed essential for transparent reporting of a prediction model study. The TRIPOD Statement aims to improve the transparency of the reporting of a prediction model study regardless of the study methods used. The TRIPOD Statement is best used in conjunction with the TRIPOD explanation and elaboration document. To aid the editorial process and readers of prediction model studies, it is recommended that authors include a completed checklist in their submission (also available at www.tripod-statement.org). © 2015 The Authors.
Hyper-Fit: Fitting Linear Models to Multidimensional Data with Multivariate Gaussian Uncertainties
Robotham, A. S. G.; Obreschkow, D.
2015-09-01
Astronomical data is often uncertain with errors that are heteroscedastic (different for each data point) and covariant between different dimensions. Assuming that a set of D-dimensional data points can be described by a (D - 1)-dimensional plane with intrinsic scatter, we derive the general likelihood function to be maximised to recover the best fitting model. Alongside the mathematical description, we also release the hyper-fit package for the R statistical language (http://github.com/asgr/hyper.fit) and a user-friendly web interface for online fitting (http://hyperfit.icrar.org). The hyper-fit package offers access to a large number of fitting routines, includes visualisation tools, and is fully documented in an extensive user manual. Most of the hyper-fit functionality is accessible via the web interface. In this paper, we include applications to toy examples and to real astronomical data from the literature: the mass-size, Tully-Fisher, Fundamental Plane, and mass-spin-morphology relations. In most cases, the hyper-fit solutions are in good agreement with published values, but uncover more information regarding the fitted model.
Development of a Mathematical Model for Multivariate Process by Balanced Six Sigma
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Díaz-Castellanos Elizabeth Eugenia
2015-07-01
Full Text Available The Six Sigma methodology is widely used in business to improve quality, increase productivity and lower costs, impacting on business improvement. However, today the challenge is to use those tools for improvements that will have a direct impact on the differentiation of value, which requires the alignment of Six Sigma with the competitive strategies of the organization.Hence the importance of a strategic management system to measure, analyze, improve and control corporate performance, while setting out responsibilities of leadership and commitment. The specific purpose of this research is to provide a mathematical model through the alignment of strategic objectives (Balanced Scorecard and tools for productivity improvement (Six Sigma for processes with multiple answers, which is sufficiently robust so that it can serve as basis for application in manufacturing and thus effectively link strategy performance and customer satisfaction. Specifically we worked with a case study: Córdoba, Ver. The model proposes that is the strategy, performance and customer satisfaction are aligned, the organization will benefit from the intense relationship between process performance and strategic initiatives. These changes can be measured by productivity and process metrics such as cycle time, production rates, production efficiency and percentage of reprocessing, among others.
Colorectal Cancer Carcinogenesis: a Multivariate Genetic Model in a Cohort of Romanian Population.
Procopciuc, Lucia M; Osian, Gelu; Iancu, Mihaela
2017-04-01
The molecular mechanism of carcinogenesis of sporadic colorectal cancer (CRC) involves genes with roles in folate metabolism, genes involved in metabolization of carcinogenic compounds from diet and tobacco smoke, and genes related to the DNA repair process. The aim of the study was to examine whether the MTHFRC677T, MTHFR- A1298C, TS-2rpt/3rpt, TS-1494del6bp, NAT2*5C-C481T, NAT2*5A-T341C, NAT2*6B-G590A, NAT2*7B-G857A, NAT2*18-A845C, GSTM1-null, XRCC1-Arg399Gln, XRCC3-Thr241Met, XPD-Lys751Gln genetic variations are associated with CRC prognosis, in the presence of environmental and demographic factors. We genotyped 150 patients diagnosed with sporadic CRC using PCR-RFLP and sequencing methods. The performance of the final model was quantified using Nagelkerke's coefficient, the Hosmer-Lemeshow test, C statistics, and Somers' (D) index, capable of describing the model's goodness-of-fit and discrimination. Multiple logistic regression analysis established a significant independent association of NAT2*18-A845C, MTHFR-C677T, XRCC3-Thr241Met, NAT2*7B-G857A, XPD-Lys751Gln, XRCC1-Arg399Gln and NAT2*6BG590A with an increased prevalence of sporadic CRC, regardless of the presence/absence of colonic tumors. After an adjustment for other polymorphisms and environmental risk factors, the risk to develop sporadic CRC was 2.25 (p = 0.011) and 2.31 (p = 0.01) in association with the NAT2*18-A845C and MTHFR-C677T genetic variants, respectively. The risk increased to 3.22 (p = 0.0005) and 3.69 (p = 0.0009) in association with the XRCC3Thr241Met and NAT2*7B-G857A polymorphisms. Also, patients carrying the XPD-Lys751Gln, XRCC1Arg399Gln, and NAT2*6B-G590A polymorphisms had a 4.16 (p model. In addition, we found an interaction between gender and alcohol, the effect of alcohol consumption on the risk of developing sporadic CRC being different in female and male patients. Our study confirmed the predictive role of some polymorphisms associated with DNA methylation and procarcinogen
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Bryan R Conroy
Full Text Available Multivariate decoding models are increasingly being applied to functional magnetic imaging (fMRI data to interpret the distributed neural activity in the human brain. These models are typically formulated to optimize an objective function that maximizes decoding accuracy. For decoding models trained on full-brain data, this can result in multiple models that yield the same classification accuracy, though some may be more reproducible than others--i.e. small changes to the training set may result in very different voxels being selected. This issue of reproducibility can be partially controlled by regularizing the decoding model. Regularization, along with the cross-validation used to estimate decoding accuracy, typically requires retraining many (often on the order of thousands of related decoding models. In this paper we describe an approach that uses a combination of bootstrapping and permutation testing to construct both a measure of cross-validated prediction accuracy and model reproducibility of the learned brain maps. This requires re-training our classification method on many re-sampled versions of the fMRI data. Given the size of fMRI datasets, this is normally a time-consuming process. Our approach leverages an algorithm called fast simultaneous training of generalized linear models (FaSTGLZ to create a family of classifiers in the space of accuracy vs. reproducibility. The convex hull of this family of classifiers can be used to identify a subset of Pareto optimal classifiers, with a single-optimal classifier selectable based on the relative cost of accuracy vs. reproducibility. We demonstrate our approach using full-brain analysis of elastic-net classifiers trained to discriminate stimulus type in an auditory and visual oddball event-related fMRI design. Our approach and results argue for a computational approach to fMRI decoding models in which the value of the interpretation of the decoding model ultimately depends upon optimizing a
Multivariable prediction model for suspected giant cell arteritis: development and validation
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Ing EB
2017-11-01
Full Text Available Edsel B Ing,1 Gabriela Lahaie Luna,2 Andrew Toren,3 Royce Ing,4 John J Chen,5 Nitika Arora,6 Nurhan Torun,7 Otana A Jakpor,8 J Alexander Fraser,9 Felix J Tyndel,10 Arun NE Sundaram,10 Xinyang Liu,11 Cindy TY Lam,1 Vivek Patel,12 Ezekiel Weis,13 David Jordan,14 Steven Gilberg,14 Christian Pagnoux,15 Martin ten Hove21Department of Ophthalmology and Vision Sciences, University of Toronto Medical School, Toronto, 2Department of Ophthalmology, Queen’s University, Kingston, ON, 3Department of Ophthalmology, University of Laval, Quebec, QC, 4Toronto Eyelid, Strabismus and Orbit Surgery Clinic, Toronto, ON, Canada; 5Mayo Clinic, Department of Ophthalmology and Neurology, 6Mayo Clinic, Department of Ophthalmology, Rochester, MN, 7Department of Surgery, Division of Ophthalmology, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, 8Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA; 9Department of Clinical Neurological Sciences and Ophthalmology, Western University, London, 10Department of Medicine, University of Toronto Medical School, Toronto, ON, Canada; 11Department of Medicine, Fudan University Shanghai Medical College, Shanghai, People’s Republic of China; 12Roski Eye Institute, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA; 13Departments of Ophthalmology, Universities of Alberta and Calgary, Edmonton and Calgary, AB, 14Department of Ophthalmology, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, 15Vasculitis Clinic, Mount Sinai Hospital, Toronto, ON, CanadaPurpose: To develop and validate a diagnostic prediction model for patients with suspected giant cell arteritis (GCA.Methods: A retrospective review of records of consecutive adult patients undergoing temporal artery biopsy (TABx for suspected GCA was conducted at seven university centers. The pathologic diagnosis was considered the final diagnosis. The predictor variables were age, gender, new onset headache, clinical temporal artery abnormality, jaw claudication, ischemic vision loss (VL, diplopia
Multivariate methods for indoor PM10 and PM2.5 modelling in naturally ventilated schools buildings
Elbayoumi, Maher; Ramli, Nor Azam; Md Yusof, Noor Faizah Fitri; Yahaya, Ahmad Shukri Bin; Al Madhoun, Wesam; Ul-Saufie, Ahmed Zia
2014-09-01
In this study the concentrations of PM10, PM2.5, CO and CO2 concentrations and meteorological variables (wind speed, air temperature, and relative humidity) were employed to predict the annual and seasonal indoor concentration of PM10 and PM2.5 using multivariate statistical methods. The data have been collected in twelve naturally ventilated schools in Gaza Strip (Palestine) from October 2011 to May 2012 (academic year). The bivariate correlation analysis showed that the indoor PM10 and PM2.5 were highly positive correlated with outdoor concentration of PM10 and PM2.5. Further, Multiple linear regression (MLR) was used for modelling and R2 values for indoor PM10 were determined as 0.62 and 0.84 for PM10 and PM2.5 respectively. The Performance indicators of MLR models indicated that the prediction for PM10 and PM2.5 annual models were better than seasonal models. In order to reduce the number of input variables, principal component analysis (PCA) and principal component regression (PCR) were applied by using annual data. The predicted R2 were 0.40 and 0.73 for PM10 and PM2.5, respectively. PM10 models (MLR and PCR) show the tendency to underestimate indoor PM10 concentrations as it does not take into account the occupant's activities which highly affect the indoor concentrations during the class hours.
Assistive/rehabilitation technology, disability, and service delivery models.
Adya, Meera; Samant, Deepti; Scherer, Marcia J; Killeen, Mary; Morris, Michael W
2012-08-01
The United Nation's Millennium Development Goals do not explicitly articulate a focus on disability; similar failures in the past resulted in research, policy, and practice that are not generalizable and did not meet the needs of persons with disabilities since they were developed for an "average" population. Academics and professionals in health and other disciplines should have a knowledge base in evidence-based practices that improve well-being and participation of people with disabilities through effective service delivery of assistive technology. Grounded by a theoretical framework that incorporates a multivariate perspective of disability that is acknowledged in the convention on the rights of persons with disabilities and the World Health Organization's International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health, we present a review of models of assistive technology service delivery and call for future syntheses of the fragmented evidence base that would permit a comparative effectiveness approach to evaluation.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Peng Nai
2016-03-01
Full Text Available A great number of immigration populations resident permanently in Yunnan Border Area of China. To some extent, these people belong to refugees or immigrants in accordance with International Rules, which significantly features the social diversity of this area. However, this kind of social diversity always impairs the social order. Therefore, there will be a positive influence to the local society governance by a research on local immigration integration. This essay hereby attempts to acquire the data of the living situation of these border area immigration and refugees. The analysis of the social integration of refugees and immigration in Yunnan border area in China will be deployed through the modeling of multivariable linear regression based on these data in order to propose some more achievable resolutions.
Zheng, Qiang; Li, Honglun; Fan, Baode; Wu, Shuanhu; Xu, Jindong
2017-12-01
Active contour model (ACM) has been one of the most widely utilized methods in magnetic resonance (MR) brain image segmentation because of its ability of capturing topology changes. However, most of the existing ACMs only consider single-slice information in MR brain image data, i.e., the information used in ACMs based segmentation method is extracted only from one slice of MR brain image, which cannot take full advantage of the adjacent slice images' information, and cannot satisfy the local segmentation of MR brain images. In this paper, a novel ACM is proposed to solve the problem discussed above, which is based on multi-variate local Gaussian distribution and combines the adjacent slice images' information in MR brain image data to satisfy segmentation. The segmentation is finally achieved through maximizing the likelihood estimation. Experiments demonstrate the advantages of the proposed ACM over the single-slice ACM in local segmentation of MR brain image series.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Manuel Sousa Gabrie
2014-09-01
Full Text Available This study analyzed market risk of an international investment portfolio by means of a new methodological proposal based on Value-at- Risk, using the covariance matrix of multivariate GARCH-type models and the extreme value theory to realize if an international diversification strategy minimizes market risk, and to determine if the VaR methodology adequately captures market risk, by applying Backtesting tests. To this end, we considered twelve international stock indexes, accounting for about 62% of the world stock market capitalization, and chose the period from the Dot-Com crisis to the current global financial crisis. Results show that the proposed methodology is a good alternative to accommodate the high market turbulence and can be considered as an adequate portfolio risk management instrument.
Cao, Yang; Obeng, Daniel; Hui, Guodong; Xue, Luting; Ren, Yukun; Yu, Xianjie; Wang, Fei; Atwell, Chad
2018-01-01
This article studies the Generalized Mahalanobis Distance (GMD) approach proposed by Hoffelder which measures the dissimilarity of two multivariate Gaussian distributions with arbitrary covariance matrices and unequal sample sizes. This investigation demonstrated that, with appropriate adjustment, the GMD approach can achieve the targeted nominal Type I error and provide sufficient power for testing equivalence between two profile populations. The adjusted GMD approach was applied to examine the equivalence of harvest profiles between a 12L small scale model and 2000L manufacturing scale in a transfer study performed at Sanofi Specialty Care Framingham Biologics. The harvest profiles were evaluated based on three critical parameters (Productivity, Lactate Production, and Total Cell Density) and deemed practically equivalent using a pre-defined equivalence margin per the adjusted GMD approach. © 2017 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Biotechnol. Prog., 34:187-195, 2018. © 2017 American Institute of Chemical Engineers.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kehinde Anthony Mogaji
2016-07-01
Full Text Available This study developed a GIS-based multivariate regression (MVR yield rate prediction model of groundwater resource sustainability in the hard-rock geology terrain of southwestern Nigeria. This model can economically manage the aquifer yield rate potential predictions that are often overlooked in groundwater resources development. The proposed model relates the borehole yield rate inventory of the area to geoelectrically derived parameters. Three sets of borehole yield rate conditioning geoelectrically derived parameters—aquifer unit resistivity (ρ, aquifer unit thickness (D and coefficient of anisotropy (λ—were determined from the acquired and interpreted geophysical data. The extracted borehole yield rate values and the geoelectrically derived parameter values were regressed to develop the MVR relationship model by applying linear regression and GIS techniques. The sensitivity analysis results of the MVR model evaluated at P ⩽ 0.05 for the predictors ρ, D and λ provided values of 2.68 × 10−05, 2 × 10−02 and 2.09 × 10−06, respectively. The accuracy and predictive power tests conducted on the MVR model using the Theil inequality coefficient measurement approach, coupled with the sensitivity analysis results, confirmed the model yield rate estimation and prediction capability. The MVR borehole yield prediction model estimates were processed in a GIS environment to model an aquifer yield potential prediction map of the area. The information on the prediction map can serve as a scientific basis for predicting aquifer yield potential rates relevant in groundwater resources sustainability management. The developed MVR borehole yield rate prediction mode provides a good alternative to other methods used for this purpose.
Guenard, Robert D; Wehlburg, Christine M; Pell, Randy J; Haaland, David M
2007-07-01
This paper reports on the transfer of calibration models between Fourier transform near-infrared (FT-NIR) instruments from four different manufacturers. The piecewise direct standardization (PDS) method is compared with the new hybrid calibration method known as prediction augmented classical least squares/partial least squares (PACLS/PLS). The success of a calibration transfer experiment is judged by prediction error and by the number of samples that are flagged as outliers that would not have been flagged as such if a complete recalibration were performed. Prediction results must be acceptable and the outlier diagnostics capabilities must be preserved for the transfer to be deemed successful. Previous studies have measured the success of a calibration transfer method by comparing only the prediction performance (e.g., the root mean square error of prediction, RMSEP). However, our study emphasizes the need to consider outlier detection performance as well. As our study illustrates, the RMSEP values for a calibration transfer can be within acceptable range; however, statistical analysis of the spectral residuals can show that differences in outlier performance can vary significantly between competing transfer methods. There was no statistically significant difference in the prediction error between the PDS and PACLS/PLS methods when the same subset sample selection method was used for both methods. However, the PACLS/PLS method was better at preserving the outlier detection capabilities and therefore was judged to have performed better than the PDS algorithm when transferring calibrations with the use of a subset of samples to define the transfer function. The method of sample subset selection was found to make a significant difference in the calibration transfer results using the PDS algorithm, while the transfer results were less sensitive to subset selection when the PACLS/PLS method was used.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
S. Sparnocchia
Full Text Available Multivariate vertical Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF are calculated for the entire Mediterranean Sea both from observations and model simulations, in order to find the optimal number of vertical modes to represent the upper thermocline vertical structure. For the first time, we show that the large-scale Mediterranean thermohaline vertical structure can be represented by a limited number of vertical multivariate EOFs, and that the "optimal set" can be selected on the basis of general principles. In particular, the EOFs are calculated for the combined temperature and salinity statistics, dividing the Mediterranean Sea into 9 regions and grouping the data seasonally. The criterion used to establish whether a reduced set of EOFs is optimal is based on the analysis of the root mean square residual error between the original data and the profiles reconstructed by the reduced set of EOFs. It was found that the number of EOFs needed to capture the variability contained in the original data changes with geographical region and seasons. In particular, winter data require a smaller number of modes (4–8, depending on the region than the other seasons (8–9 in summer. Moreover, western Mediterranean regions require more modes than the eastern Mediterranean ones, but this result may depend on the data scarcity in the latter regions. The EOFs computed from the in situ data set are compared to those calculated using data obtained from a model simulation. The main results of this exercise are that the two groups of modes are not strictly comparable but their ability to reproduce observations is the same. Thus, they may be thought of as equivalent sets of basis functions, upon which to project the thermohaline variability of the basin.
Key words. Oceanography: general (water masses – Oceanography: physical (hydrography; instruments and techniques
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
S. Sparnocchia
2003-01-01
Full Text Available Multivariate vertical Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF are calculated for the entire Mediterranean Sea both from observations and model simulations, in order to find the optimal number of vertical modes to represent the upper thermocline vertical structure. For the first time, we show that the large-scale Mediterranean thermohaline vertical structure can be represented by a limited number of vertical multivariate EOFs, and that the "optimal set" can be selected on the basis of general principles. In particular, the EOFs are calculated for the combined temperature and salinity statistics, dividing the Mediterranean Sea into 9 regions and grouping the data seasonally. The criterion used to establish whether a reduced set of EOFs is optimal is based on the analysis of the root mean square residual error between the original data and the profiles reconstructed by the reduced set of EOFs. It was found that the number of EOFs needed to capture the variability contained in the original data changes with geographical region and seasons. In particular, winter data require a smaller number of modes (4–8, depending on the region than the other seasons (8–9 in summer. Moreover, western Mediterranean regions require more modes than the eastern Mediterranean ones, but this result may depend on the data scarcity in the latter regions. The EOFs computed from the in situ data set are compared to those calculated using data obtained from a model simulation. The main results of this exercise are that the two groups of modes are not strictly comparable but their ability to reproduce observations is the same. Thus, they may be thought of as equivalent sets of basis functions, upon which to project the thermohaline variability of the basin. Key words. Oceanography: general (water masses – Oceanography: physical (hydrography; instruments and techniques
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Labouriau, Rodrigo
The theory of exponential dispersion models (EDM), for which Bent Jørgensen made substantial contributions, provides a flexible framework of models alternative to the classic Gaussian linear models (e.g. generalized linear models and additive models). I review some multivariate extensions of those...... models that allow the distribution of the different dimensions to belong to different EDMs. As an illustration, I present some applications in quantitative genetics with high complexity (several hundreds of thousand observations and deep pedigrees). In all the presented applications, it is crucial...... to understand the underlying stochastic process related to the EDMs used to represent well and interpret biological questions of interest. Bent Jørgensen advocated similar ideas in his work since the 1980s. La théorie des modèles de dispersion exponentielle (EDM), à laquelle Bent Jørgensen a apporté d...
Sasakura, D; Nakayama, K; Sakamoto, T; Chikuma, T
2015-05-01
The use of transmission near infrared spectroscopy (TNIRS) is of particular interest in the pharmaceutical industry. This is because TNIRS does not require sample preparation and can analyze several tens of tablet samples in an hour. It has the capability to measure all relevant information from a tablet, while still on the production line. However, TNIRS has a narrow spectrum range and overtone vibrations often overlap. To perform content uniformity testing in tablets by TNIRS, various properties in the tableting process need to be analyzed by a multivariate prediction model, such as a Partial Least Square Regression modeling. One issue is that typical approaches require several hundred reference samples to act as the basis of the method rather than a strategically designed method. This means that many batches are needed to prepare the reference samples; this requires time and is not cost effective. Our group investigated the concentration dependence of the calibration model with a strategic design. Consequently, we developed a more effective approach to the TNIRS calibration model than the existing methodology.
Huang, Guowen; Lee, Duncan; Scott, E Marian
2018-03-30
The long-term health effects of air pollution are often estimated using a spatio-temporal ecological areal unit study, but this design leads to the following statistical challenges: (1) how to estimate spatially representative pollution concentrations for each areal unit; (2) how to allow for the uncertainty in these estimated concentrations when estimating their health effects; and (3) how to simultaneously estimate the joint effects of multiple correlated pollutants. This article proposes a novel 2-stage Bayesian hierarchical model for addressing these 3 challenges, with inference based on Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. The first stage is a multivariate spatio-temporal fusion model for predicting areal level average concentrations of multiple pollutants from both monitored and modelled pollution data. The second stage is a spatio-temporal model for estimating the health impact of multiple correlated pollutants simultaneously, which accounts for the uncertainty in the estimated pollution concentrations. The novel methodology is motivated by a new study of the impact of both particulate matter and nitrogen dioxide concentrations on respiratory hospital admissions in Scotland between 2007 and 2011, and the results suggest that both pollutants exhibit substantial and independent health effects. © 2017 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Zu, Theresah N. K.; Liu, Sanchao; Germane, Katherine L.; Servinsky, Matthew D.; Gerlach, Elliot S.; Mackie, David M.; Sund, Christian J.
2016-05-01
The coupling of optical fibers with Raman instrumentation has proven to be effective for real-time monitoring of chemical reactions and fermentations when combined with multivariate statistical data analysis. Raman spectroscopy is relatively fast, with little interference from the water peak present in fermentation media. Medical research has explored this technique for analysis of mammalian cultures for potential diagnosis of some cancers. Other organisms studied via this route include Escherichia coli, Saccharomyces cerevisiae, and some Bacillus sp., though very little work has been performed on Clostridium acetobutylicum cultures. C. acetobutylicum is a gram-positive anaerobic bacterium, which is highly sought after due to its ability to use a broad spectrum of substrates and produce useful byproducts through the well-known Acetone-Butanol-Ethanol (ABE) fermentation. In this work, real-time Raman data was acquired from C. acetobutylicum cultures grown on glucose. Samples were collected concurrently for comparative off-line product analysis. Partial-least squares (PLS) models were built both for agitated cultures and for static cultures from both datasets. Media components and metabolites monitored include glucose, butyric acid, acetic acid, and butanol. Models were cross-validated with independent datasets. Experiments with agitation were more favorable for modeling with goodness of fit (QY) values of 0.99 and goodness of prediction (Q2Y) values of 0.98. Static experiments did not model as well as agitated experiments. Raman results showed the static experiments were chaotic, especially during and shortly after manual sampling.
Applied multivariate statistical analysis
Härdle, Wolfgang Karl
2015-01-01
Focusing on high-dimensional applications, this 4th edition presents the tools and concepts used in multivariate data analysis in a style that is also accessible for non-mathematicians and practitioners. It surveys the basic principles and emphasizes both exploratory and inferential statistics; a new chapter on Variable Selection (Lasso, SCAD and Elastic Net) has also been added. All chapters include practical exercises that highlight applications in different multivariate data analysis fields: in quantitative financial studies, where the joint dynamics of assets are observed; in medicine, where recorded observations of subjects in different locations form the basis for reliable diagnoses and medication; and in quantitative marketing, where consumers’ preferences are collected in order to construct models of consumer behavior. All of these examples involve high to ultra-high dimensions and represent a number of major fields in big data analysis. The fourth edition of this book on Applied Multivariate ...
Yousif, Wael K.
2010-01-01
This causal and correlational study was designed to extend the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) and to test its applicability to Valencia Community College (VCC) Engineering and Technology students as the target user group when investigating the factors influencing their decision to adopt and to utilize VMware as the target technology. In…
Lautz, L. K.; Hoke, G. D.; Lu, Z.; Siegel, D. I.
2013-12-01
Hydraulic fracturing has the potential to introduce saline water into the environment due to migration of deep formation water to shallow aquifers and/or discharge of flowback water to the environment during transport and disposal. It is challenging to definitively identify whether elevated salinity is associated with hydraulic fracturing, in part, due to the real possibility of other anthropogenic sources of salinity in the human-impacted watersheds in which drilling is taking place and some formation water present naturally in shallow groundwater aquifers. We combined new and published chemistry data for private drinking water wells sampled across five southern New York (NY) counties overlying the Marcellus Shale (Broome, Chemung, Chenango, Steuben, and Tioga). Measurements include Cl, Na, Br, I, Ca, Mg, Ba, SO4, and Sr. We compared this baseline groundwater quality data in NY, now under a moratorium on hydraulic fracturing, with published chemistry data for 6 different potential sources of elevated salinity in shallow groundwater, including Appalachian Basin formation water, road salt runoff, septic effluent, landfill leachate, animal waste, and water softeners. A multivariate random number generator was used to create a synthetic, low salinity ( 20 mg/L Cl) as being affected by formation water, road salt, septic effluent, landfill leachate, animal waste, or water softeners. Single elements or pairs of elements (e.g. Cl and Br) were not effective at discriminating between sources of salinity, indicating multivariate methods are needed. The discriminant analysis model classified most accurately samples affected by formation water and landfill leachate, whereas those contaminated by road salt, animal waste, and water softeners were more likely to be discriminated as contaminated by a different source. Using this approach, no shallow groundwater samples from NY appear to be affected by formation water, suggesting the source of salinity pre-hydraulic fracturing is
Keppenne, Christian L.; Rienecker, Michele M.; Koblinsky, Chester (Technical Monitor)
2001-01-01
A multivariate ensemble Kalman filter (MvEnKF) implemented on a massively parallel computer architecture has been implemented for the Poseidon ocean circulation model and tested with a Pacific Basin model configuration. There are about two million prognostic state-vector variables. Parallelism for the data assimilation step is achieved by regionalization of the background-error covariances that are calculated from the phase-space distribution of the ensemble. Each processing element (PE) collects elements of a matrix measurement functional from nearby PEs. To avoid the introduction of spurious long-range covariances associated with finite ensemble sizes, the background-error covariances are given compact support by means of a Hadamard (element by element) product with a three-dimensional canonical correlation function. The methodology and the MvEnKF configuration are discussed. It is shown that the regionalization of the background covariances; has a negligible impact on the quality of the analyses. The parallel algorithm is very efficient for large numbers of observations but does not scale well beyond 100 PEs at the current model resolution. On a platform with distributed memory, memory rather than speed is the limiting factor.
BUSINESS MODELS FOR INCREASING TECHNOLOGICAL TRANSFER EFFECTIVENESS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Simina FULGA
2016-05-01
Full Text Available The present paper is devoted to analyze the appropriate recommendations to increase the effectiveness of technology transfer organizations (centers from ReNITT, by using the specific instruments of Business Model Canvas, associated to the technological transfer value chain for the value added services addressed to their clients and according to a continuously improved competitive strategy over competition analysis.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alexander Vladimirovich Kirillov
2015-12-01
Full Text Available The international integration of the Russian economy is connected to the need of the realization of the competitive advantages of the geopolitical position of Russia, the industrial potential of regions, the logistic infrastructure of transport corridors. This article discusses the design model of the supply chain (distribution network based on the multivariate analysis and the methodology of the substantiation of its configuration based on the cost factors and the level of the logistics infrastructure development. For solving the problem of placing one or more logistics centers in the service area, a two-stage algorithm is used. At the first stage, the decisions on the reasonability of the choice of one or another version of the development are made with А. В. Кириллов, В. Е. Целин 345 ЭКОНОМИКА РЕГИОНА №4 (2015 the use of the “Make or Buy” standard model. The criterion of decision making is the guaranteed overcoming of the threshold of “indifference” taking into account the statistical characteristics of costs for options of “buy” and “make” depending on the volume of consumption of goods or services. At the second stage, the Ardalan’s heuristic method is used for the evaluation of the choice of placing one or more logistics centers in the service area. The model parameters are based on the assessment of the development prospects of the region and its investment potential (existence and composition of employment, production, natural resources, financial and consumer opportunities, institutional, innovation, infrastructure capacity. Furthermore, such criteria as a regional financial appeal, professionally trained specialists, the competitive advantages of the promoted company and others are analyzed. An additional criterion is the development of the priority matrix, which considers such factors as difficulties of customs registration and certification, a level of regional transport
Chung, Sang Yong
2015-04-01
Multivariate statistical methods and inverse geochemical modelling were used to assess the hydrogeochemical processes of groundwater in Nakdong River basin. The study area is located in a part of Nakdong River basin, the Busan Metropolitan City, Kora. Quaternary deposits forms Samrak Park region and are underlain by intrusive rocks of Bulkuksa group and sedimentary rocks of Yucheon group in the Cretaceous Period. The Samrak park region is acting as two aquifer systems of unconfined aquifer and confined aquifer. The unconfined aquifer consists of upper sand, and confined aquifer is comprised of clay, lower sand, gravel, weathered rock. Porosity and hydraulic conductivity of the area is 37 to 59% and 1.7 to 200m/day, respectively. Depth of the wells ranges from 9 to 77m. Piper's trilinear diagram, CaCl2 type was useful for unconfined aquifer and NaCl type was dominant for confined aquifer. By hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA), Group 1 and Group 2 are fully composed of unconfined aquifer and confined aquifer, respectively. In factor analysis (FA), Factor 1 is described by the strong loadings of EC, Na, K, Ca, Mg, Cl, HCO3, SO4 and Si, and Factor 2 represents the strong loadings of pH and Al. Base on the Gibbs diagram, the unconfined and confined aquifer samples are scattered discretely in the rock and evaporation areas. The principal hydrogeochemical processes occurring in the confined and unconfined aquifers are the ion exchange due to the phenomena of freshening under natural recharge and water-rock interactions followed by evaporation and dissolution. The saturation index of minerals such as Ca-montmorillonite, dolomite and calcite represents oversaturated, and the albite, gypsum and halite show undersaturated. Inverse geochemical modeling using PHREEQC code demonstrated that relatively few phases were required to derive the differences in groundwater chemistry along the flow path in the area. It also suggested that dissolution of carbonate and ion exchange
Global Health Innovation Technology Models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kimberly Harding
2016-04-01
Full Text Available Chronic technology and business process disparities between High Income, Low Middle Income and Low Income (HIC, LMIC, LIC research collaborators directly prevent the growth of sustainable Global Health innovation for infectious and rare diseases. There is a need for an Open Source-Open Science Architecture Framework to bridge this divide. We are proposing such a framework for consideration by the Global Health community, by utilizing a hybrid approach of integrating agnostic Open Source technology and healthcare interoperability standards and Total Quality Management principles. We will validate this architecture framework through our programme called Project Orchid. Project Orchid is a conceptual Clinical Intelligence Exchange and Virtual Innovation platform utilizing this approach to support clinical innovation efforts for multi-national collaboration that can be locally sustainable for LIC and LMIC research cohorts. The goal is to enable LIC and LMIC research organizations to accelerate their clinical trial process maturity in the field of drug discovery, population health innovation initiatives and public domain knowledge networks. When sponsored, this concept will be tested by 12 confirmed clinical research and public health organizations in six countries. The potential impact of this platform is reduced drug discovery and public health innovation lag time and improved clinical trial interventions, due to reliable clinical intelligence and bio-surveillance across all phases of the clinical innovation process.
Global Health Innovation Technology Models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kimberly Harding
2016-04-01
Full Text Available Chronic technology and business process disparities between High Income, Low Middle Income and Low Income (HIC, LMIC, LIC research collaborators directly prevent the growth of sustainable Global Health innova‐ tion for infectious and rare diseases. There is a need for an Open Source-Open Science Architecture Framework to bridge this divide. We are proposing such a framework for consideration by the Global Health community, by utiliz‐ ing a hybrid approach of integrating agnostic Open Source technology and healthcare interoperability standards and Total Quality Management principles. We will validate this architecture framework through our programme called Project Orchid. Project Orchid is a conceptual Clinical Intelligence Exchange and Virtual Innovation platform utilizing this approach to support clinical innovation efforts for multi-national collaboration that can be locally sustainable for LIC and LMIC research cohorts. The goal is to enable LIC and LMIC research organizations to acceler‐ ate their clinical trial process maturity in the field of drug discovery, population health innovation initiatives and public domain knowledge networks. When sponsored, this concept will be tested by 12 confirmed clinical research and public health organizations in six countries. The potential impact of this platform is reduced drug discovery and public health innovation lag time and improved clinical trial interventions, due to reliable clinical intelligence and bio-surveillance across all phases of the clinical innovation process.
Business Model Discovery by Technology Entrepreneurs
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Steven Muegge
2012-04-01
Full Text Available Value creation and value capture are central to technology entrepreneurship. The ways in which a particular firm creates and captures value are the foundation of that firm's business model, which is an explanation of how the business delivers value to a set of customers at attractive profits. Despite the deep conceptual link between business models and technology entrepreneurship, little is known about the processes by which technology entrepreneurs produce successful business models. This article makes three contributions to partially address this knowledge gap. First, it argues that business model discovery by technology entrepreneurs can be, and often should be, disciplined by both intention and structure. Second, it provides a tool for disciplined business model discovery that includes an actionable process and a worksheet for describing a business model in a form that is both concise and explicit. Third, it shares preliminary results and lessons learned from six technology entrepreneurs applying a disciplined process to strengthen or reinvent the business models of their own nascent technology businesses.
A merge model with endogenous technological change
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kypreos, S.; Bahn, O.
2002-03-01
A new version of the MERGE model, called MERGE-ETL, has been developed to consider endogenous technological change in the energy system. The basic formulation of MERGE-ETL as well as some first results are reported here. (author)
Causal Models for Safety Assurance Technologies Project
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Fulfillment of NASA's System-Wide Safety and Assurance Technology (SSAT) project at NASA requires leveraging vast amounts of data into actionable knowledge. Models...
Multivariate Statistical Process Control
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kulahci, Murat
2013-01-01
As sensor and computer technology continues to improve, it becomes a normal occurrence that we confront with high dimensional data sets. As in many areas of industrial statistics, this brings forth various challenges in statistical process control (SPC) and monitoring for which the aim...... is to identify “out-of-control” state of a process using control charts in order to reduce the excessive variation caused by so-called assignable causes. In practice, the most common method of monitoring multivariate data is through a statistic akin to the Hotelling’s T2. For high dimensional data with excessive...... in conjunction with image data are plagued with various challenges beyond the usual ones encountered in current applications. In this presentation we will introduce the basic ideas of SPC and the multivariate control charts commonly used in industry. We will further discuss the challenges the practitioners...
Meeker, Daniella; Jiang, Xiaoqian; Matheny, Michael E; Farcas, Claudiu; D'Arcy, Michel; Pearlman, Laura; Nookala, Lavanya; Day, Michele E; Kim, Katherine K; Kim, Hyeoneui; Boxwala, Aziz; El-Kareh, Robert; Kuo, Grace M; Resnic, Frederic S; Kesselman, Carl; Ohno-Machado, Lucila
2015-11-01
Centralized and federated models for sharing data in research networks currently exist. To build multivariate data analysis for centralized networks, transfer of patient-level data to a central computation resource is necessary. The authors implemented distributed multivariate models for federated networks in which patient-level data is kept at each site and data exchange policies are managed in a study-centric manner. The objective was to implement infrastructure that supports the functionality of some existing research networks (e.g., cohort discovery, workflow management, and estimation of multivariate analytic models on centralized data) while adding additional important new features, such as algorithms for distributed iterative multivariate models, a graphical interface for multivariate model specification, synchronous and asynchronous response to network queries, investigator-initiated studies, and study-based control of staff, protocols, and data sharing policies. Based on the requirements gathered from statisticians, administrators, and investigators from multiple institutions, the authors developed infrastructure and tools to support multisite comparative effectiveness studies using web services for multivariate statistical estimation in the SCANNER federated network. The authors implemented massively parallel (map-reduce) computation methods and a new policy management system to enable each study initiated by network participants to define the ways in which data may be processed, managed, queried, and shared. The authors illustrated the use of these systems among institutions with highly different policies and operating under different state laws. Federated research networks need not limit distributed query functionality to count queries, cohort discovery, or independently estimated analytic models. Multivariate analyses can be efficiently and securely conducted without patient-level data transport, allowing institutions with strict local data storage
Zammit-Mangion, Andrew; Rougier, Jonathan; Schön, Nana; Lindgren, Finn; Bamber, Jonathan
2015-05-01
Antarctica is the world's largest fresh-water reservoir, with the potential to raise sea levels by about 60 m. An ice sheet contributes to sea-level rise (SLR) when its rate of ice discharge and/or surface melting exceeds accumulation through snowfall. Constraining the contribution of the ice sheets to present-day SLR is vital both for coastal development and planning, and climate projections. Information on various ice sheet processes is available from several remote sensing data sets, as well as in situ data such as global positioning system data. These data have differing coverage, spatial support, temporal sampling and sensing characteristics, and thus, it is advantageous to combine them all in a single framework for estimation of the SLR contribution and the assessment of processes controlling mass exchange with the ocean. In this paper, we predict the rate of height change due to salient geophysical processes in Antarctica and use these to provide estimates of SLR contribution with associated uncertainties. We employ a multivariate spatio-temporal model, approximated as a Gaussian Markov random field, to take advantage of differing spatio-temporal properties of the processes to separate the causes of the observed change. The process parameters are estimated from geophysical models, while the remaining parameters are estimated using a Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme, designed to operate in a high-performance computing environment across multiple nodes. We validate our methods against a separate data set and compare the results to those from studies that invariably employ numerical model outputs directly. We conclude that it is possible, and insightful, to assess Antarctica's contribution without explicit use of numerical models. Further, the results obtained here can be used to test the geophysical numerical models for which in situ data are hard to obtain. © 2015 The Authors. Environmetrics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Song, Seung Yeob; Lee, Young Koung; Kim, In-Jung
2016-01-01
A high-throughput screening system for Citrus lines were established with higher sugar and acid contents using Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy in combination with multivariate analysis. FT-IR spectra confirmed typical spectral differences between the frequency regions of 950-1100 cm(-1), 1300-1500 cm(-1), and 1500-1700 cm(-1). Principal component analysis (PCA) and subsequent partial least square-discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) were able to discriminate five Citrus lines into three separate clusters corresponding to their taxonomic relationships. The quantitative predictive modeling of sugar and acid contents from Citrus fruits was established using partial least square regression algorithms from FT-IR spectra. The regression coefficients (R(2)) between predicted values and estimated sugar and acid content values were 0.99. These results demonstrate that by using FT-IR spectra and applying quantitative prediction modeling to Citrus sugar and acid contents, excellent Citrus lines can be early detected with greater accuracy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Kim, Hyunwoo J; Adluru, Nagesh; Collins, Maxwell D; Chung, Moo K; Bendlin, Barbara B; Johnson, Sterling C; Davidson, Richard J; Singh, Vikas
2014-06-23
Linear regression is a parametric model which is ubiquitous in scientific analysis. The classical setup where the observations and responses, i.e., ( x i , y i ) pairs, are Euclidean is well studied. The setting where y i is manifold valued is a topic of much interest, motivated by applications in shape analysis, topic modeling, and medical imaging. Recent work gives strategies for max-margin classifiers, principal components analysis, and dictionary learning on certain types of manifolds. For parametric regression specifically, results within the last year provide mechanisms to regress one real-valued parameter, x i ∈ R , against a manifold-valued variable, y i ∈ . We seek to substantially extend the operating range of such methods by deriving schemes for multivariate multiple linear regression -a manifold-valued dependent variable against multiple independent variables, i.e., f : R n → . Our variational algorithm efficiently solves for multiple geodesic bases on the manifold concurrently via gradient updates. This allows us to answer questions such as: what is the relationship of the measurement at voxel y to disease when conditioned on age and gender. We show applications to statistical analysis of diffusion weighted images, which give rise to regression tasks on the manifold GL ( n )/ O ( n ) for diffusion tensor images (DTI) and the Hilbert unit sphere for orientation distribution functions (ODF) from high angular resolution acquisition. The companion open-source code is available on nitrc.org/projects/riem_mglm.
Cottam, Austin; Billing, Josiah; Cottam, Daniel; Billing, Peter; Cottam, Samuel; Zaveri, Hinali; Surve, Amit
2017-08-01
Despite being the most common surgery in the United States, little is known about predicting weight loss success and failure with sleeve gastrectomy (SG). Papers that have been published are inconclusive. We decided to use multivariate analysis from 2 practices to design a model to predict weight loss outcomes using data widely available to any surgical practice at 3 months to determine weight loss outcomes at 1 year. Two private practices in the United States. A retrospective review of 613 patients from 2 bariatric institutions were included in this study. Co-morbidities and other preoperative characteristics were gathered, and %EWL was calculated for 1, 3, and 12 months. Excess weight loss (%EWL)failure. Multiple variate analysis was used to find factors that affect %EWL at 12 months. Preoperative sleep apnea, preoperative diabetes, %EWL at 1 month, and %EWL at 3 months all affect %EWL at 1 year. The positive predictive value and negative predictive value of our model was 72% and 91%, respectively. Sensitivity and specificity were 71% and 91%, respectively. One-year results of the SG can be predicted by diabetes, sleep apnea, and weight loss velocity at 3 months postoperatively. This can help surgeons direct surgical or medical interventions for patients at 3 months rather than at 1 year or beyond. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Bariatric Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Zambrano-Galván, Graciela; Reyes-Romero, Miguel A; Lazalde, Brissia; Rodríguez-Morán, Martha; Guerrero-Romero, Fernando
2015-02-01
To evaluate a predictive model of microalbuminuria by using anthropometric, clinical and genetic variables in relatives of subjects with diabetic nephropathy. Eligible subjects, aged 18-63 years with body mass indexdimensionality reduction analysis was performed using the software multifactor dimensionality reduction package. The multivariable dimensionality reduction analysis showed that obesity and SNP G-308A of TNF gene exhibited main effects with 1.10 and 1.98% of information gain (IG), respectively. The IL6 showed synergy (interaction) with HDL-c (IG 1.27%) and sex (IG 1.02%); also high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and triglycerides levels showed synergy (IG 1.08%). The consistency of the cross-validation for this model was 0.6836, with sensitivity and specificity of 0.58 and 0.76 (odds ratio 4.64; 95% CI 4.0-10.0, p<0.0001). Our results indicate that obesity and/or high blood pressure, in synergism with high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, is the main predictive risk factor of diabetic nephropathy in healthy subjects, relatives of patients with type 2 diabetes and diabetic nephropathy.
Jensen, Dan B; Hogeveen, Henk; De Vries, Albert
2016-09-01
Rapid detection of dairy cow mastitis is important so corrective action can be taken as soon as possible. Automatically collected sensor data used to monitor the performance and the health state of the cow could be useful for rapid detection of mastitis while reducing the labor needs for monitoring. The state of the art in combining sensor data to predict clinical mastitis still does not perform well enough to be applied in practice. Our objective was to combine a multivariate dynamic linear model (DLM) with a naïve Bayesian classifier (NBC) in a novel method using sensor and nonsensor data to detect clinical cases of mastitis. We also evaluated reductions in the number of sensors for detecting mastitis. With the DLM, we co-modeled 7 sources of sensor data (milk yield, fat, protein, lactose, conductivity, blood, body weight) collected at each milking for individual cows to produce one-step-ahead forecasts for each sensor. The observations were subsequently categorized according to the errors of the forecasted values and the estimated forecast variance. The categorized sensor data were combined with other data pertaining to the cow (week in milk, parity, mastitis history, somatic cell count category, and season) using Bayes' theorem, which produced a combined probability of the cow having clinical mastitis. If this probability was above a set threshold, the cow was classified as mastitis positive. To illustrate the performance of our method, we used sensor data from 1,003,207 milkings from the University of Florida Dairy Unit collected from 2008 to 2014. Of these, 2,907 milkings were associated with recorded cases of clinical mastitis. Using the DLM/NBC method, we reached an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.89, with a specificity of 0.81 when the sensitivity was set at 0.80. Specificities with omissions of sensor data ranged from 0.58 to 0.81. These results are comparable to other studies, but differences in data quality, definitions of
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Schaaf, Arjen van der; Xu Chengjian; Luijk, Peter van; Veld, Aart A. van’t; Langendijk, Johannes A.; Schilstra, Cornelis
2012-01-01
Purpose: Multivariate modeling of complications after radiotherapy is frequently used in conjunction with data driven variable selection. This study quantifies the risk of overfitting in a data driven modeling method using bootstrapping for data with typical clinical characteristics, and estimates the minimum amount of data needed to obtain models with relatively high predictive power. Materials and methods: To facilitate repeated modeling and cross-validation with independent datasets for the assessment of true predictive power, a method was developed to generate simulated data with statistical properties similar to real clinical data sets. Characteristics of three clinical data sets from radiotherapy treatment of head and neck cancer patients were used to simulate data with set sizes between 50 and 1000 patients. A logistic regression method using bootstrapping and forward variable selection was used for complication modeling, resulting for each simulated data set in a selected number of variables and an estimated predictive power. The true optimal number of variables and true predictive power were calculated using cross-validation with very large independent data sets. Results: For all simulated data set sizes the number of variables selected by the bootstrapping method was on average close to the true optimal number of variables, but showed considerable spread. Bootstrapping is more accurate in selecting the optimal number of variables than the AIC and BIC alternatives, but this did not translate into a significant difference of the true predictive power. The true predictive power asymptotically converged toward a maximum predictive power for large data sets, and the estimated predictive power converged toward the true predictive power. More than half of the potential predictive power is gained after approximately 200 samples. Our simulations demonstrated severe overfitting (a predicative power lower than that of predicting 50% probability) in a number of small
Paul, Matt R; Levitt, Nicholas P; Moore, David E; Watson, Patricia M; Wilson, Robert C; Denlinger, Chadrick E; Watson, Dennis K; Anderson, Paul E
2016-03-31
It has recently been shown that significant and accurate single nucleotide variants (SNVs) can be reliably called from RNA-Seq data. These may provide another source of features for multivariate predictive modeling of disease phenotype for the prioritization of candidate biomarkers. The continuous nature of SNV allele fraction features allows the concurrent investigation of several genomic phenomena, including allele specific expression, clonal expansion and/or deletion, and copy number variation. The proposed software pipeline and package, SNV Discriminant Analysis (SNV-DA), was applied on two RNA-Seq datasets with varying sample sizes sequenced at different depths: a dataset containing primary tumors from twenty patients with different disease outcomes in lung adenocarcinoma and a larger dataset of primary tumors representing two major breast cancer subtypes, estrogen receptor positive and triple negative. Predictive models were generated using the machine learning algorithm, sparse projections to latent structures discriminant analysis. Training sets composed of RNA-Seq SNV features limited to genomic regions of origin (e.g. exonic or intronic) and/or RNA-editing sites were shown to produce models with accurate predictive performances, were discriminant towards true label groupings, and were able to produce SNV rankings significantly different from than univariate tests. Furthermore, the utility of the proposed methodology is supported by its comparable performance to traditional models as well as the enrichment of selected SNVs located in genes previously associated with cancer and genes showing allele-specific expression. As proof of concept, we highlight the discovery of a previously unannotated intergenic locus that is associated with epigenetic regulatory marks in cancer and whose significant allele-specific expression is correlated with ER+ status; hereafter named ER+ associated hotspot (ERPAHS). The use of models from RNA-Seq SNVs to identify and
Yip, Wai Lam; Gausemel, Ingvil; Sande, Sverre Arne; Dyrstad, Knut
2012-11-01
Accurate determination of residual moisture content of a freeze-dried (FD) pharmaceutical product is critical for prediction of its quality. Near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy is a fast and non-invasive method routinely used for quantification of moisture. However, several physicochemical properties of the FD product may interfere with absorption bands related to the water content. A commonly used stabilizer and bulking agent in FD known for variation in physicochemical properties, is mannitol. To minimize this physicochemical interference, different approaches for multivariate correlation between NIR spectra of a FD product containing mannitol and the corresponding moisture content measured by Karl Fischer (KF) titration have been investigated. A novel method, MIPCR (Main and Interactions of Individual Principal Components Regression), was found to have significantly increased predictive ability of moisture content compared to a traditional PLS approach. The philosophy behind the MIPCR is that the interference from a variety of particle and morphology attributes has interactive effects on the water related absorption bands. The transformation of original wavelength variables to orthogonal scores gives a new set of variables (scores) without covariance structure, and the possibility of inclusion of interaction terms in the further modeling. The residual moisture content of the FD product investigated is in the range from 0.7% to 2.6%. The mean errors of cross validated prediction of models developed in the investigated NIR regions were reduced from a range of 24.1-27.6% for traditional PLS method to 15.7-20.5% for the MIPCR method. Improved model quality by application of MIPCR, without the need for inclusion of a large number of calibration samples, might increase the use of NIR in early phase product development, where availability of calibration samples is often limited. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sepedeh Gholizadeh
2016-07-01
Full Text Available Background:Obesity and hypertension are the most important non-communicable diseases thatin many studies, the prevalence and their risk factors have been performedin each geographic region univariately.Study of factors affecting both obesity and hypertension may have an important role which to be adrressed in this study. Materials &Methods:This cross-sectional study was conducted on 1000 men aged 20-70 living in Bushehr province. Blood pressure was measured three times and the average of them was considered as one of the response variables. Hypertension was defined as systolic blood pressure ≥140 (and-or diastolic blood pressure ≥90 and obesity was defined as body mass index ≥25. Data was analyzed by using multilevel, multivariate logistic regression model by MlwiNsoftware. Results:Intra class correlations in cluster level obtained 33% for high blood pressure and 37% for obesity, so two level model was fitted to data. The prevalence of obesity and hypertension obtained 43.6% (0.95%CI; 40.6-46.5, 29.4% (0.95%CI; 26.6-32.1 respectively. Age, gender, smoking, hyperlipidemia, diabetes, fruit and vegetable consumption and physical activity were the factors affecting blood pressure (p≤0.05. Age, gender, hyperlipidemia, diabetes, fruit and vegetable consumption, physical activity and place of residence are effective on obesity (p≤0.05. Conclusion: The multilevel models with considering levels distribution provide more precise estimates. As regards obesity and hypertension are the major risk factors for cardiovascular disease, by knowing the high-risk groups we can d careful planning to prevention of non-communicable diseases and promotion of society health.
Study on the Method of Grass Yield Model in the Source Region of Three Rivers with Multivariate Data
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
You, Haoyan; Luo, Chengfeng; Liu, Zhengjun; Wang, Jiao
2014-01-01
This paper uses remote sensing and GIS technology to analyse the Source Region of Three Rivers (SRTR) to establish a grass yield estimation model during 2010 with remote sensing data, meteorological data, grassland type data and ground measured data. Analysis of the correlation between ground measured data, vegetation index based HJ-1A/B satellite data, meteorological data and grassland type data were used to establish the grass yield model. The grass yield model was studied by several statistical methods, such as multiple linear regression and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR). The model's precision was validated. Finally, the best model to estimate the grass yield of Maduo County in SRTR was contrasted with the TM degraded grassland interpretation image of Maduo County from 2009. The result shows that: (1) Comparing with the multiple linear regression model, the GWR model gave a much better fitting result with the quality of fit increasing significantly from less than 0.3 to more than 0.8; (2) The most sensitive factors affecting the grass yield in SRTR were precipitation from May to August and drought index from May to August. From calculation of the five vegetation indices, MSAVI fitted the best; (3) The Maduo County grass yield estimated by the optimal model was consistent with the TM degraded grassland interpretation image, the spatial distribution of grass yield in Maduo County for 2010 showed a ''high south and low north'' pattern
Grinn-Gofroń, Agnieszka; Strzelczak, Agnieszka
2009-11-01
A study was made of the link between time of day, weather variables and the hourly content of certain fungal spores in the atmosphere of the city of Szczecin, Poland, in 2004-2007. Sampling was carried out with a Lanzoni 7-day-recording spore trap. The spores analysed belonged to the taxa Alternaria and Cladosporium. These spores were selected both for their allergenic capacity and for their high level presence in the atmosphere, particularly during summer. Spearman correlation coefficients between spore concentrations, meteorological parameters and time of day showed different indices depending on the taxon being analysed. Relative humidity (RH), air temperature, air pressure and clouds most strongly and significantly influenced the concentration of Alternaria spores. Cladosporium spores correlated less strongly and significantly than Alternaria. Multivariate regression tree analysis revealed that, at air pressures lower than 1,011 hPa the concentration of Alternaria spores was low. Under higher air pressure spore concentrations were higher, particularly when RH was lower than 36.5%. In the case of Cladosporium, under higher air pressure (>1,008 hPa), the spores analysed were more abundant, particularly after 0330 hours. In artificial neural networks, RH, air pressure and air temperature were the most important variables in the model for Alternaria spore concentration. For Cladosporium, clouds, time of day, air pressure, wind speed and dew point temperature were highly significant factors influencing spore concentration. The maximum abundance of Cladosporium spores in air fell between 1200 and 1700 hours.
Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications
Filipe, Joaquim; Kacprzyk, Janusz; Pina, Nuno
2014-01-01
This book includes extended and revised versions of a set of selected papers from the 2012 International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications (SIMULTECH 2012) which was sponsored by the Institute for Systems and Technologies of Information, Control and Communication (INSTICC) and held in Rome, Italy. SIMULTECH 2012 was technically co-sponsored by the Society for Modeling & Simulation International (SCS), GDR I3, Lionphant Simulation, Simulation Team and IFIP and held in cooperation with AIS Special Interest Group of Modeling and Simulation (AIS SIGMAS) and the Movimento Italiano Modellazione e Simulazione (MIMOS).
MODELS OF TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION: AN INTEGRATIVE APPROACH
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Andrei OGREZEANU
2015-06-01
Full Text Available The interdisciplinary study of information technology adoption has developed rapidly over the last 30 years. Various theoretical models have been developed and applied such as: the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM, Innovation Diffusion Theory (IDT, Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB, etc. The result of these many years of research is thousands of contributions to the field, which, however, remain highly fragmented. This paper develops a theoretical model of technology adoption by integrating major theories in the field: primarily IDT, TAM, and TPB. To do so while avoiding mess, an approach that goes back to basics in independent variable type’s development is proposed; emphasizing: 1 the logic of classification, and 2 psychological mechanisms behind variable types. Once developed these types are then populated with variables originating in empirical research. Conclusions are developed on which types are underpopulated and present potential for future research. I end with a set of methodological recommendations for future application of the model.
Impact of Fractionation and Dose in a Multivariate Model for Radiation-Induced Chest Wall Pain
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Din, Shaun U.; Williams, Eric L.; Jackson, Andrew; Rosenzweig, Kenneth E.; Wu, Abraham J.; Foster, Amanda; Yorke, Ellen D.; Rimner, Andreas
2015-01-01
Purpose: To determine the role of patient/tumor characteristics, radiation dose, and fractionation using the linear-quadratic (LQ) model to predict stereotactic body radiation therapy–induced grade ≥2 chest wall pain (CWP2) in a larger series and develop clinically useful constraints for patients treated with different fraction numbers. Methods and Materials: A total of 316 lung tumors in 295 patients were treated with stereotactic body radiation therapy in 3 to 5 fractions to 39 to 60 Gy. Absolute dose–absolute volume chest wall (CW) histograms were acquired. The raw dose-volume histograms (α/β = ∞ Gy) were converted via the LQ model to equivalent doses in 2-Gy fractions (normalized total dose, NTD) with α/β from 0 to 25 Gy in 0.1-Gy steps. The Cox proportional hazards (CPH) model was used in univariate and multivariate models to identify and assess CWP2 exposed to a given physical and NTD. Results: The median follow-up was 15.4 months, and the median time to development of CWP2 was 7.4 months. On a univariate CPH model, prescription dose, prescription dose per fraction, number of fractions, D83cc, distance of tumor to CW, and body mass index were all statistically significant for the development of CWP2. Linear-quadratic correction improved the CPH model significance over the physical dose. The best-fit α/β was 2.1 Gy, and the physical dose (α/β = ∞ Gy) was outside the upper 95% confidence limit. With α/β = 2.1 Gy, V NTD99Gy was most significant, with median V NTD99Gy = 31.5 cm 3 (hazard ratio 3.87, P<.001). Conclusion: There were several predictive factors for the development of CWP2. The LQ-adjusted doses using the best-fit α/β = 2.1 Gy is a better predictor of CWP2 than the physical dose. To aid dosimetrists, we have calculated the physical dose equivalent corresponding to V NTD99Gy = 31.5 cm 3 for the 3- to 5-fraction groups
Up-scaling of multi-variable flood loss models from objects to land use units at the meso-scale
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
H. Kreibich
2016-05-01
Full Text Available Flood risk management increasingly relies on risk analyses, including loss modelling. Most of the flood loss models usually applied in standard practice have in common that complex damaging processes are described by simple approaches like stage-damage functions. Novel multi-variable models significantly improve loss estimation on the micro-scale and may also be advantageous for large-scale applications. However, more input parameters also reveal additional uncertainty, even more in upscaling procedures for meso-scale applications, where the parameters need to be estimated on a regional area-wide basis. To gain more knowledge about challenges associated with the up-scaling of multi-variable flood loss models the following approach is applied: Single- and multi-variable micro-scale flood loss models are up-scaled and applied on the meso-scale, namely on basis of ATKIS land-use units. Application and validation is undertaken in 19 municipalities, which were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany by comparison to official loss data provided by the Saxon Relief Bank (SAB.In the meso-scale case study based model validation, most multi-variable models show smaller errors than the uni-variable stage-damage functions. The results show the suitability of the up-scaling approach, and, in accordance with micro-scale validation studies, that multi-variable models are an improvement in flood loss modelling also on the meso-scale. However, uncertainties remain high, stressing the importance of uncertainty quantification. Thus, the development of probabilistic loss models, like BT-FLEMO used in this study, which inherently provide uncertainty information are the way forward.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Junxiu Ma
2017-01-01
Full Text Available 3,5-Diamino-1,2,4-triazole (DAT became a significant energetic materials intermediate, and the study of its reaction mechanism has fundamental significance in chemistry. The aim of this study is to investigate the ability of online attenuated total reflection infrared (ATR-IR spectroscopy combined with the novel approach of hybrid hard- and soft-modelling multivariate curve resolution-alternating least squares (HS-MCR analysis to monitor and detect changes in structural properties of compound during 3,5-diamino-1,2,4-triazole (DAT synthesis processes. The subspace comparison method (SCM was used to obtain the principal components number, and then the pure IR spectra of each substance were obtained by independent component analysis (ICA and HS-MCR. The extent of rotation ambiguity was estimated from the band boundaries of feasible solutions calculated using the MCR-BANDS procedure. There were five principal components including two intermediates in the process in the results. The reaction rate constants of DAT formation reaction were also obtained by HS-MCR. HS-MCR was used to analyze spectroscopy data in chemical synthesis process, which not only increase the information domain but also reduce the ambiguities of the obtained results. This study provides the theoretical basis for the optimization of synthesis process and technology of energetic materials and provides a strong technical support of research and development of energy material with extraordinary damage effects.
Ma, Junxiu; Qi, Juan; Gao, Xinyu; Yan, Chunhua; Zhang, Tianlong; Tang, Hongsheng; Li, Hua
2017-01-01
3,5-Diamino-1,2,4-triazole (DAT) became a significant energetic materials intermediate, and the study of its reaction mechanism has fundamental significance in chemistry. The aim of this study is to investigate the ability of online attenuated total reflection infrared (ATR-IR) spectroscopy combined with the novel approach of hybrid hard- and soft-modelling multivariate curve resolution-alternating least squares (HS-MCR) analysis to monitor and detect changes in structural properties of compound during 3,5-diamino-1,2,4-triazole (DAT) synthesis processes. The subspace comparison method (SCM) was used to obtain the principal components number, and then the pure IR spectra of each substance were obtained by independent component analysis (ICA) and HS-MCR. The extent of rotation ambiguity was estimated from the band boundaries of feasible solutions calculated using the MCR-BANDS procedure. There were five principal components including two intermediates in the process in the results. The reaction rate constants of DAT formation reaction were also obtained by HS-MCR. HS-MCR was used to analyze spectroscopy data in chemical synthesis process, which not only increase the information domain but also reduce the ambiguities of the obtained results. This study provides the theoretical basis for the optimization of synthesis process and technology of energetic materials and provides a strong technical support of research and development of energy material with extraordinary damage effects.
Deo, Ravinesh C.; Kisi, Ozgur; Singh, Vijay P.
2017-02-01
Drought forecasting using standardized metrics of rainfall is a core task in hydrology and water resources management. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is a rainfall-based metric that caters for different time-scales at which the drought occurs, and due to its standardization, is well-suited for forecasting drought at different periods in climatically diverse regions. This study advances drought modelling using multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), least square support vector machine (LSSVM), and M5Tree models by forecasting SPI in eastern Australia. MARS model incorporated rainfall as mandatory predictor with month (periodicity), Southern Oscillation Index, Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index and Indian Ocean Dipole, ENSO Modoki and Nino 3.0, 3.4 and 4.0 data added gradually. The performance was evaluated with root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and coefficient of determination (r2). Best MARS model required different input combinations, where rainfall, sea surface temperature and periodicity were used for all stations, but ENSO Modoki and Pacific Decadal Oscillation indices were not required for Bathurst, Collarenebri and Yamba, and the Southern Oscillation Index was not required for Collarenebri. Inclusion of periodicity increased the r2 value by 0.5-8.1% and reduced RMSE by 3.0-178.5%. Comparisons showed that MARS superseded the performance of the other counterparts for three out of five stations with lower MAE by 15.0-73.9% and 7.3-42.2%, respectively. For the other stations, M5Tree was better than MARS/LSSVM with lower MAE by 13.8-13.4% and 25.7-52.2%, respectively, and for Bathurst, LSSVM yielded more accurate result. For droughts identified by SPI ≤ - 0.5, accurate forecasts were attained by MARS/M5Tree for Bathurst, Yamba and Peak Hill, whereas for Collarenebri and Barraba, M5Tree was better than LSSVM/MARS. Seasonal analysis revealed disparate results where MARS/M5Tree was better than LSSVM. The results highlight the
Capacity Expansion Modeling for Storage Technologies
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hale, Elaine; Stoll, Brady; Mai, Trieu
2017-04-03
The Resource Planning Model (RPM) is a capacity expansion model designed for regional power systems and high levels of renewable generation. Recent extensions capture value-stacking for storage technologies, including batteries and concentrating solar power with storage. After estimating per-unit capacity value and curtailment reduction potential, RPM co-optimizes investment decisions and reduced-form dispatch, accounting for planning reserves; energy value, including arbitrage and curtailment reduction; and three types of operating reserves. Multiple technology cost scenarios are analyzed to determine level of deployment in the Western Interconnection under various conditions.
Golkarian, Ali; Naghibi, Seyed Amir; Kalantar, Bahareh; Pradhan, Biswajeet
2018-02-17
Ever increasing demand for water resources for different purposes makes it essential to have better understanding and knowledge about water resources. As known, groundwater resources are one of the main water resources especially in countries with arid climatic condition. Thus, this study seeks to provide groundwater potential maps (GPMs) employing new algorithms. Accordingly, this study aims to validate the performance of C5.0, random forest (RF), and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) algorithms for generating GPMs in the eastern part of Mashhad Plain, Iran. For this purpose, a dataset was produced consisting of spring locations as indicator and groundwater-conditioning factors (GCFs) as input. In this research, 13 GCFs were selected including altitude, slope aspect, slope angle, plan curvature, profile curvature, topographic wetness index (TWI), slope length, distance from rivers and faults, rivers and faults density, land use, and lithology. The mentioned dataset was divided into two classes of training and validation with 70 and 30% of the springs, respectively. Then, C5.0, RF, and MARS algorithms were employed using R statistical software, and the final values were transformed into GPMs. Finally, two evaluation criteria including Kappa and area under receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC-ROC) were calculated. According to the findings of this research, MARS had the best performance with AUC-ROC of 84.2%, followed by RF and C5.0 algorithms with AUC-ROC values of 79.7 and 77.3%, respectively. The results indicated that AUC-ROC values for the employed models are more than 70% which shows their acceptable performance. As a conclusion, the produced methodology could be used in other geographical areas. GPMs could be used by water resource managers and related organizations to accelerate and facilitate water resource exploitation.
Lee, Tsair-Fwu; Chao, Pei-Ju; Chang, Liyun; Ting, Hui-Min; Huang, Yu-Jie
2015-01-01
Symptomatic radiation pneumonitis (SRP), which decreases quality of life (QoL), is the most common pulmonary complication in patients receiving breast irradiation. If it occurs, acute SRP usually develops 4-12 weeks after completion of radiotherapy and presents as a dry cough, dyspnea and low-grade fever. If the incidence of SRP is reduced, not only the QoL but also the compliance of breast cancer patients may be improved. Therefore, we investigated the incidence SRP in breast cancer patients after hybrid intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) to find the risk factors, which may have important effects on the risk of radiation-induced complications. In total, 93 patients with breast cancer were evaluated. The final endpoint for acute SRP was defined as those who had density changes together with symptoms, as measured using computed tomography. The risk factors for a multivariate normal tissue complication probability model of SRP were determined using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) technique. Five risk factors were selected using LASSO: the percentage of the ipsilateral lung volume that received more than 20-Gy (IV20), energy, age, body mass index (BMI) and T stage. Positive associations were demonstrated among the incidence of SRP, IV20, and patient age. Energy, BMI and T stage showed a negative association with the incidence of SRP. Our analyses indicate that the risk of SPR following hybrid IMRT in elderly or low-BMI breast cancer patients is increased once the percentage of the ipsilateral lung volume receiving more than 20-Gy is controlled below a limitation. We suggest to define a dose-volume percentage constraint of IV20radiation therapy treatment planning to maintain the incidence of SPR below 20%, and pay attention to the sequelae especially in elderly or low-BMI breast cancer patients. (AIV20: the absolute ipsilateral lung volume that received more than 20 Gy (cc).
Multivariate strategies in functional magnetic resonance imaging
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hansen, Lars Kai
2007-01-01
We discuss aspects of multivariate fMRI modeling, including the statistical evaluation of multivariate models and means for dimensional reduction. In a case study we analyze linear and non-linear dimensional reduction tools in the context of a `mind reading' predictive multivariate fMRI model....
Chiarello, Lisa A.; Palisano, Robert J.; Bartlett, Doreen J.; McCoy, Sarah Westcott
2011-01-01
A multivariate model of determinants of change in gross-motor ability and engagement in self-care and play provides physical and occupational therapists a framework for decisions on interventions and supports for young children with cerebral palsy and their families. Aspects of the child, family ecology, and rehabilitation and community services…
Schafer, R. M.; Sain, M. K.
1980-01-01
The paper presents the CARDIAD (complex acceptability region for diagonal dominance) method for achieving the diagonal dominance condition in the inverse Nyquist array approach to the analysis and design of multivariable systems in the frequency domain. A design example is given for a sixth order, 4-input, 4-output model of a turbofan engine.
Technological diffusion in the Ramsey model
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Duczynski, Petr
2002-01-01
Roč. 1, č. 3 (2002), s. 243-250 ISSN 1607-0704 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z7085904 Keywords : neoclassical growth model * technological diffusion Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.ijbe.org/table%20of%20content/pdf/vol1-3/06.pdf
Exemplary Training Models in Industrial Technology.
Hatton, Michael J., Comp.
Prepared by Canadian, Chinese Taipei, and Thai educational agencies and based on surveys of Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation member nations, this report provides descriptions of 52 exemplary industrial technology training models in Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong, Malaysia, New Zealand, the Philippines, the People's Republic…
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tsair-Fwu Lee
Full Text Available Symptomatic radiation pneumonitis (SRP, which decreases quality of life (QoL, is the most common pulmonary complication in patients receiving breast irradiation. If it occurs, acute SRP usually develops 4-12 weeks after completion of radiotherapy and presents as a dry cough, dyspnea and low-grade fever. If the incidence of SRP is reduced, not only the QoL but also the compliance of breast cancer patients may be improved. Therefore, we investigated the incidence SRP in breast cancer patients after hybrid intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT to find the risk factors, which may have important effects on the risk of radiation-induced complications.In total, 93 patients with breast cancer were evaluated. The final endpoint for acute SRP was defined as those who had density changes together with symptoms, as measured using computed tomography. The risk factors for a multivariate normal tissue complication probability model of SRP were determined using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO technique.Five risk factors were selected using LASSO: the percentage of the ipsilateral lung volume that received more than 20-Gy (IV20, energy, age, body mass index (BMI and T stage. Positive associations were demonstrated among the incidence of SRP, IV20, and patient age. Energy, BMI and T stage showed a negative association with the incidence of SRP. Our analyses indicate that the risk of SPR following hybrid IMRT in elderly or low-BMI breast cancer patients is increased once the percentage of the ipsilateral lung volume receiving more than 20-Gy is controlled below a limitation.We suggest to define a dose-volume percentage constraint of IV20< 37% (or AIV20< 310cc for the irradiated ipsilateral lung in radiation therapy treatment planning to maintain the incidence of SPR below 20%, and pay attention to the sequelae especially in elderly or low-BMI breast cancer patients. (AIV20: the absolute ipsilateral lung volume that received more than
Erdodi, Laszlo A
2017-11-07
This study was designed to examine the "domain specificity" hypothesis in performance validity tests (PVTs) and the epistemological status of an "indeterminate range" when evaluating the credibility of a neuropsychological profile using a multivariate model of performance validity assessment. While previous research suggests that aggregating PVTs produces superior classification accuracy compared to individual instruments, the effect of the congruence between the criterion and predictor variable on signal detection and the issue of classifying borderline cases remain understudied. Data from a mixed clinical sample of 234 adults referred for cognitive evaluation (M Age = 46.6; M Education = 13.5) were collected. Two validity composites were created: one based on five verbal PVTs (EI-5 VER ) and one based on five nonverbal PVTs (EI-5 NV ) and compared against several other PVTs. Overall, language-based tests of cognitive ability were more sensitive to elevations on the EI-5 VER compared to visual-perceptual tests; whereas, the opposite was observed with the EI-5 NV . However, the match between predictor and criterion variable had a more complex relationship with classification accuracy, suggesting the confluence of multiple factors (sensory modality, cognitive domain, testing paradigm). An "indeterminate range" of performance validity emerged that was distinctly different from both the Pass and the Fail group. Trichotomized criterion PVTs (Pass-Borderline-Fail) had a negative linear relationship with performance on tests of cognitive ability, providing further support for an "in-between" category separating the unequivocal Pass and unequivocal Fail classification range. The choice of criterion variable can influence classification accuracy in PVT research. Establishing a Borderline range between Pass and Fail more accurately reflected the distribution of scores on multiple PVTs. The traditional binary classification system imposes an artificial dichotomy on
van de Mheen, Lidewij; Schuit, Ewoud; Lim, Arianne C; Porath, Martina M; Papatsonis, Dimitri; Erwich, Jan J; van Eyck, Jim; van Oirschot, Charlotte M; Hummel, Piet; Duvekot, Johannes J; Hasaart, Tom H M; Groenwold, Rolf H H; Moons, Karl G M; de Groot, Christianne J M; Bruinse, Hein W; van Pampus, Maria G; Mol, Ben W J
2014-04-01
To develop a multivariable prognostic model for the risk of preterm delivery in women with multiple pregnancy that includes cervical length measurement at 16 to 21 weeks' gestation and other variables. We used data from a previous randomized trial. We assessed the association between maternal and pregnancy characteristics including cervical length measurement at 16 to 21 weeks' gestation and time to delivery using multivariable Cox regression modelling. Performance of the final model was assessed for the outcomes of preterm and very preterm delivery using calibration and discrimination measures. We studied 507 women, of whom 270 (53%) delivered models for preterm and very preterm delivery had a c-index of 0.68 (95% CI 0.63 to 0.72) and 0.68 (95% CI 0.62 to 0.75), respectively, and showed good calibration. In women with a multiple pregnancy, the risk of preterm delivery can be assessed with a multivariable model incorporating cervical length and other predictors.
A primer of multivariate statistics
Harris, Richard J
2014-01-01
Drawing upon more than 30 years of experience in working with statistics, Dr. Richard J. Harris has updated A Primer of Multivariate Statistics to provide a model of balance between how-to and why. This classic text covers multivariate techniques with a taste of latent variable approaches. Throughout the book there is a focus on the importance of describing and testing one's interpretations of the emergent variables that are produced by multivariate analysis. This edition retains its conversational writing style while focusing on classical techniques. The book gives the reader a feel for why
A structural model of technology acceptance
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Etienne Erasmus
2015-04-01
Research purpose: The aim of this study was to test the technology acceptance model within a South African SAP® Enterprise Resource Planning user environment. Motivation for the study: No study could be traced in which the technology acceptance model has been evaluated in the South African context. Research approach, design and method: A cross-sectional survey design was used. The 23-item Technology Acceptance Model Questionnaire was deployed amongst SAP® Enterprise Resource Planning users (N = 241. Main findings: The results confirmed significant paths from perceived usefulness of the information system to attitudes towards and behavioural intentions to use it. Furthermore, behavioural intention to use the system predicted actual use thereof. Perceived ease of use indirectly affected attitudes towards and behavioural intentions to use via perceived usefulness of the information system. Practical/managerial implications: Practitioners should build user confidence by ensuring the ease of use of a new system, providing relevant education, training and guidance and reiterating its usefulness and future added value to the user’s job and career. Contribution/value-add: This study contributes to scientific knowledge regarding the influence of individuals’ perceptions of information system usage on their attitudes, behavioural intentions and actual use of such a system.
MODELING AND OPTIMIZATION OF THE AEROCONCRETE TECHNOLOGY
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhukov Aleksey Dmitrievich
2012-07-01
Selection of the appropriate composition and optimal technological parameters is performed with the help of G-BAT-2011 software programme developed at MSUCE. The software is based on the methodology that is based on complete factorial experiments, experiments based on fractional replicates and testing of all essential statistical hypotheses. Linear, incomplete quadratic and quadratic equations generated as a result of experiments make it possible to design a model that represents natural processes in the adequate manner. The model is analytically optimized and interpreted thereafter.
Modeling of processing technologies in food industry
Korotkov, V. G.; Sagitov, R. F.; Popov, V. P.; Bachirov, V. D.; Akhmadieva, Z. R.; TSirkaeva, E. A.
2018-03-01
Currently, the society is facing an urgent need to solve the problems of nutrition (products with increased nutrition value) and to develop energy-saving technologies for food products. A mathematical modeling of heat and mass transfer of polymer materials in the extruder is rather successful these days. Mathematical description of movement and heat exchange during extrusion of gluten-protein-starch-containing material similar to pasta dough in its structure, were taken as a framework for the mathematical model presented in this paper.
The Environmental Technology Verification report discusses the technology and performance of Laser Touch model LT-B512 targeting device manufactured by Laser Touch and Technologies, LLC, for manual spray painting operations. The relative transfer efficiency (TE) improved an avera...
Introduction to multivariate discrimination
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kégl Balázs
2013-07-01
Full Text Available Multivariate discrimination or classification is one of the best-studied problem in machine learning, with a plethora of well-tested and well-performing algorithms. There are also several good general textbooks [1–9] on the subject written to an average engineering, computer science, or statistics graduate student; most of them are also accessible for an average physics student with some background on computer science and statistics. Hence, instead of writing a generic introduction, we concentrate here on relating the subject to a practitioner experimental physicist. After a short introduction on the basic setup (Section 1 we delve into the practical issues of complexity regularization, model selection, and hyperparameter optimization (Section 2, since it is this step that makes high-complexity non-parametric fitting so different from low-dimensional parametric fitting. To emphasize that this issue is not restricted to classification, we illustrate the concept on a low-dimensional but non-parametric regression example (Section 2.1. Section 3 describes the common algorithmic-statistical formal framework that unifies the main families of multivariate classification algorithms. We explain here the large-margin principle that partly explains why these algorithms work. Section 4 is devoted to the description of the three main (families of classification algorithms, neural networks, the support vector machine, and AdaBoost. We do not go into the algorithmic details; the goal is to give an overview on the form of the functions these methods learn and on the objective functions they optimize. Besides their technical description, we also make an attempt to put these algorithm into a socio-historical context. We then briefly describe some rather heterogeneous applications to illustrate the pattern recognition pipeline and to show how widespread the use of these methods is (Section 5. We conclude the chapter with three essentially open research problems
Introduction to multivariate discrimination
Kégl, Balázs
2013-07-01
Multivariate discrimination or classification is one of the best-studied problem in machine learning, with a plethora of well-tested and well-performing algorithms. There are also several good general textbooks [1-9] on the subject written to an average engineering, computer science, or statistics graduate student; most of them are also accessible for an average physics student with some background on computer science and statistics. Hence, instead of writing a generic introduction, we concentrate here on relating the subject to a practitioner experimental physicist. After a short introduction on the basic setup (Section 1) we delve into the practical issues of complexity regularization, model selection, and hyperparameter optimization (Section 2), since it is this step that makes high-complexity non-parametric fitting so different from low-dimensional parametric fitting. To emphasize that this issue is not restricted to classification, we illustrate the concept on a low-dimensional but non-parametric regression example (Section 2.1). Section 3 describes the common algorithmic-statistical formal framework that unifies the main families of multivariate classification algorithms. We explain here the large-margin principle that partly explains why these algorithms work. Section 4 is devoted to the description of the three main (families of) classification algorithms, neural networks, the support vector machine, and AdaBoost. We do not go into the algorithmic details; the goal is to give an overview on the form of the functions these methods learn and on the objective functions they optimize. Besides their technical description, we also make an attempt to put these algorithm into a socio-historical context. We then briefly describe some rather heterogeneous applications to illustrate the pattern recognition pipeline and to show how widespread the use of these methods is (Section 5). We conclude the chapter with three essentially open research problems that are either
Wingbermühle, Roel W; van Trijffel, Emiel; Nelissen, Paul M; Koes, Bart; Verhagen, Arianne P
2018-01-01
Which multivariable prognostic model(s) for recovery in people with neck pain can be used in primary care? Systematic review of studies evaluating multivariable prognostic models. People with non-specific neck pain presenting at primary care. Baseline characteristics of the participants. Recovery measured as pain reduction, reduced disability, or perceived recovery at short-term and long-term follow-up. Fifty-three publications were included, of which 46 were derivation studies, four were validation studies, and three concerned combined studies. The derivation studies presented 99 multivariate models, all of which were at high risk of bias. Three externally validated models generated usable models in low risk of bias studies. One predicted recovery in non-specific neck pain, while two concerned participants with whiplash-associated disorders (WAD). Discriminative ability of the non-specific neck pain model was area under the curve (AUC) 0.65 (95% CI 0.59 to 0.71). For the first WAD model, discriminative ability was AUC 0.85 (95% CI 0.79 to 0.91). For the second WAD model, specificity was 99% (95% CI 93 to 100) and sensitivity was 44% (95% CI 23 to 65) for prediction of non-recovery, and 86% (95% CI 73 to 94) and 55% (95% CI 41 to 69) for prediction of recovery, respectively. Initial Neck Disability Index scores and age were identified as consistent prognostic factors in these three models. Three externally validated models were found to be usable and to have low risk of bias, of which two showed acceptable discriminative properties for predicting recovery in people with neck pain. These three models need further validation and evaluation of their clinical impact before their broad clinical use can be advocated. PROSPERO CRD42016042204. [Wingbermühle RW, van Trijffel E, Nelissen PM, Koes B, Verhagen AP (2018) Few promising multivariable prognostic models exist for recovery of people with non-specific neck pain in musculoskeletal primary care: a systematic review
Minaya, Veronica; Corzo, Gerald; van der Kwast, Johannes; Galarraga, Remigio; Mynett, Arthur
2014-05-01
Simulations of carbon cycling are prone to uncertainties from different sources, which in general are related to input data, parameters and the model representation capacities itself. The gross carbon uptake in the cycle is represented by the gross primary production (GPP), which deals with the spatio-temporal variability of the precipitation and the soil moisture dynamics. This variability associated with uncertainty of the parameters can be modelled by multivariate probabilistic distributions. Our study presents a novel methodology that uses multivariate Copulas analysis to assess the GPP. Multi-species and elevations variables are included in a first scenario of the analysis. Hydro-meteorological conditions that might generate a change in the next 50 or more years are included in a second scenario of this analysis. The biogeochemical model BIOME-BGC was applied in the Ecuadorian Andean region in elevations greater than 4000 masl with the presence of typical vegetation of páramo. The change of GPP over time is crucial for climate scenarios of the carbon cycling in this type of ecosystem. The results help to improve our understanding of the ecosystem function and clarify the dynamics and the relationship with the change of climate variables. Keywords: multivariate analysis, Copula, BIOME-BGC, NPP, páramos
Multiphase flow models for hydraulic fracturing technology
Osiptsov, Andrei A.
2017-10-01
The technology of hydraulic fracturing of a hydrocarbon-bearing formation is based on pumping a fluid with particles into a well to create fractures in porous medium. After the end of pumping, the fractures filled with closely packed proppant particles create highly conductive channels for hydrocarbon flow from far-field reservoir to the well to surface. The design of the hydraulic fracturing treatment is carried out with a simulator. Those simulators are based on mathematical models, which need to be accurate and close to physical reality. The entire process of fracture placement and flowback/cleanup can be conventionally split into the following four stages: (i) quasi-steady state effectively single-phase suspension flow down the wellbore, (ii) particle transport in an open vertical fracture, (iii) displacement of fracturing fluid by hydrocarbons from the closed fracture filled with a random close pack of proppant particles, and, finally, (iv) highly transient gas-liquid flow in a well during cleanup. The stage (i) is relatively well described by the existing hydralics models, while the models for the other three stages of the process need revisiting and considerable improvement, which was the focus of the author’s research presented in this review paper. For stage (ii), we consider the derivation of a multi-fluid model for suspension flow in a narrow vertical hydraulic fracture at moderate Re on the scale of fracture height and length and also the migration of particles across the flow on the scale of fracture width. At the stage of fracture cleanaup (iii), a novel multi-continua model for suspension filtration is developed. To provide closure relationships for permeability of proppant packings to be used in this model, a 3D direct numerical simulation of single phase flow is carried out using the lattice-Boltzmann method. For wellbore cleanup (iv), we present a combined 1D model for highly-transient gas-liquid flow based on the combination of multi-fluid and
Control Multivariable por Desacoplo
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Fernando Morilla
2013-01-01
results obtained by the authors after several years of research giving priority to the problem generalization and practical issues like easiness of implementation and utilization of PID controllers as elementary blocks. This combination of interests makes difficult to obtain perfect decoupling in all cases; although it is possible to achieve an important interaction reduction at the basic level of the control pyramid in such a way that other control systems at higher hierarchical levels benefit of this fact. This article summarizes the main aspects of decoupling control and presents its application to two illustrative examples: an experimental quadruple tank process and a 4×4 model of a heat, ventilation and air conditioning system. Palabras clave: Control de procesos, Control multivariable, Control por desacoplo, Control PID, Keywords: Process control, multivariable control, decoupling control, PID control
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Schoeling, L.G.
1993-09-01
This report describes the development and testing of the Kansas Technology Transfer Model (KTTM) which is to be utilized as a regional model for the development of other technology transfer programs for independent operators throughout oil-producing regions in the US. It describes the linkage of the regional model with a proposed national technology transfer plan, an evaluation technique for improving and assessing the model, and the methodology which makes it adaptable on a regional basis. The report also describes management concepts helpful in managing a technology transfer program. The original Tertiary Oil Recovery Project (TORP) activities, upon which the KTTM is based, were developed and tested for Kansas and have proved to be effective in assisting independent operators in utilizing technology. Through joint activities of TORP and the Kansas Geological Survey (KGS), the KTTM was developed and documented for application in other oil-producing regions. During the course of developing this model, twelve documents describing the implementation of the KTTM were developed as deliverables to DOE. These include: (1) a problem identification (PI) manual describing the format and results of six PI workshops conducted in different areas of Kansas, (2) three technology workshop participant manuals on advanced waterflooding, reservoir description, and personal computer applications, (3) three technology workshop instructor manuals which provides instructor material for all three workshops, (4) three technologies were documented as demonstration projects which included reservoir management, permeability modification, and utilization of a liquid-level acoustic measuring device, (5) a bibliography of all literature utilized in the documents, and (6) a document which describes the KTTM.
Sokolov, Michael; Morbidelli, Massimo; Butté, Alessandro; Souquet, Jonathan; Broly, Hervé
2017-12-28
The development of cell culture processes is highly complex and requires a large number of experiments on various scales to define the design space of the final process and fulfil the regulatory requirements. This work follows an almost complete process development cycle for a biosimilar monoclonal antibody, from high throughput screening and optimization to scale-up and process validation. The key goal of this analysis is to apply tailored multivariate tools to support decision-making at every stage of process development. A toolset mainly based on Principal Component Analysis, Decision Trees, and Partial Least Square Regression combined with a Genetic Algorithm is presented. It enables to visualize the sequential improvement of the high-dimensional quality profile towards the target, provides a solid basis for the selection of effective process variables and allows to dynamically predict the complete set of product quality attributes. Additionally, this work shows the deep level of process knowledge which can be deduced from small scale experiments through such multivariate tools. The presented methodologies are generally applicable across various processes and substantially reduce the complexity, experimental effort as well as the costs and time of process development. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.
Verdam, Mathilde G. E.; Oort, Frans J.
2014-01-01
Highlights Application of Kronecker product to construct parsimonious structural equation models for multivariate longitudinal data. A method for the investigation of measurement bias with Kronecker product restricted models. Application of these methods to health-related quality of life data from bone metastasis patients, collected at 13 consecutive measurement occasions. The use of curves to facilitate substantive interpretation of apparent measurement bias. Assessment of change in common factor means, after accounting for apparent measurement bias. Longitudinal measurement invariance is usually investigated with a longitudinal factor model (LFM). However, with multiple measurement occasions, the number of parameters to be estimated increases with a multiple of the number of measurement occasions. To guard against too low ratios of numbers of subjects and numbers of parameters, we can use Kronecker product restrictions to model the multivariate longitudinal structure of the data. These restrictions can be imposed on all parameter matrices, including measurement invariance restrictions on factor loadings and intercepts. The resulting models are parsimonious and have attractive interpretation, but require different methods for the investigation of measurement bias. Specifically, additional parameter matrices are introduced to accommodate possible violations of measurement invariance. These additional matrices consist of measurement bias parameters that are either fixed at zero or free to be estimated. In cases of measurement bias, it is also possible to model the bias over time, e.g., with linear or non-linear curves. Measurement bias detection with Kronecker product restricted models will be illustrated with multivariate longitudinal data from 682 bone metastasis patients whose health-related quality of life (HRQL) was measured at 13 consecutive weeks. PMID:25295016
Verdam, Mathilde G E; Oort, Frans J
2014-01-01
Application of Kronecker product to construct parsimonious structural equation models for multivariate longitudinal data.A method for the investigation of measurement bias with Kronecker product restricted models.Application of these methods to health-related quality of life data from bone metastasis patients, collected at 13 consecutive measurement occasions.The use of curves to facilitate substantive interpretation of apparent measurement bias.Assessment of change in common factor means, after accounting for apparent measurement bias.Longitudinal measurement invariance is usually investigated with a longitudinal factor model (LFM). However, with multiple measurement occasions, the number of parameters to be estimated increases with a multiple of the number of measurement occasions. To guard against too low ratios of numbers of subjects and numbers of parameters, we can use Kronecker product restrictions to model the multivariate longitudinal structure of the data. These restrictions can be imposed on all parameter matrices, including measurement invariance restrictions on factor loadings and intercepts. The resulting models are parsimonious and have attractive interpretation, but require different methods for the investigation of measurement bias. Specifically, additional parameter matrices are introduced to accommodate possible violations of measurement invariance. These additional matrices consist of measurement bias parameters that are either fixed at zero or free to be estimated. In cases of measurement bias, it is also possible to model the bias over time, e.g., with linear or non-linear curves. Measurement bias detection with Kronecker product restricted models will be illustrated with multivariate longitudinal data from 682 bone metastasis patients whose health-related quality of life (HRQL) was measured at 13 consecutive weeks.
Zhou, Jinzhe; Zhou, Yanbing; Cao, Shougen; Li, Shikuan; Wang, Hao; Niu, Zhaojian; Chen, Dong; Wang, Dongsheng; Lv, Liang; Zhang, Jian; Li, Yu; Jiao, Xuelong; Tan, Xiaojie; Zhang, Jianli; Wang, Haibo; Zhang, Bingyuan; Lu, Yun; Sun, Zhenqing
2016-01-01
Reporting of surgical complications is common, but few provide information about the severity and estimate risk factors of complications. If have, but lack of specificity. We retrospectively analyzed data on 2795 gastric cancer patients underwent surgical procedure at the Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University between June 2007 and June 2012, established multivariate logistic regression model to predictive risk factors related to the postoperative complications according to the Clavien-Dindo classification system. Twenty-four out of 86 variables were identified statistically significant in univariate logistic regression analysis, 11 significant variables entered multivariate analysis were employed to produce the risk model. Liver cirrhosis, diabetes mellitus, Child classification, invasion of neighboring organs, combined resection, introperative transfusion, Billroth II anastomosis of reconstruction, malnutrition, surgical volume of surgeons, operating time and age were independent risk factors for postoperative complications after gastrectomy. Based on logistic regression equation, p=Exp∑BiXi / (1+Exp∑BiXi), multivariate logistic regression predictive model that calculated the risk of postoperative morbidity was developed, p = 1/(1 + e((4.810-1.287X1-0.504X2-0.500X3-0.474X4-0.405X5-0.318X6-0.316X7-0.305X8-0.278X9-0.255X10-0.138X11))). The accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of the model to predict the postoperative complications were 86.7%, 76.2% and 88.6%, respectively. This risk model based on Clavien-Dindo grading severity of complications system and logistic regression analysis can predict severe morbidity specific to an individual patient's risk factors, estimate patients' risks and benefits of gastric surgery as an accurate decision-making tool and may serve as a template for the development of risk models for other surgical groups.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Zhu, Jie
There exist dual-listed stocks which are issued by the same company in some stock markets. Although these stocks bare the same firm-specific risk and enjoy identical dividends and voting policies, they are priced differently. Some previous studies show this seeming deviation from the law of one...... stock markets. Models with dynamic of Geometric Brownian Motion are adopted, multivariate GARCH models are also introduced to capture the feature of time-varying volatility in stock returns. The results suggest that the different pric- ing can be explained by the difference in expected returns between...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Siersma, V; Als-Nielsen, B; Chen, Weikeng
2007-01-01
Methodological deficiencies are known to affect the results of randomized trials. There are several components of trial quality, which, when inadequately attended to, may bias the treatment effect under study. The extent of this bias, so far only vaguely known, is currently being investigated....... Therefore, a stable multivariable method that allows for heterogeneity is needed for assessing the 'bias coefficients'. We present two general statistical models for analysis of a study of 523 randomized trials from 48 meta-analyses in a random sample of Cochrane reviews: a logistic regression model uses...
Harris, Jenny; Cornelius, Victoria; Ream, Emma; Cheevers, Katy; Armes, Jo
2017-07-01
The purpose of this review was to identify potential candidate predictors of anxiety in women with early-stage breast cancer (BC) after adjuvant treatments and evaluate methodological development of existing multivariable models to inform the future development of a predictive risk stratification model (PRSM). Databases (MEDLINE, Web of Science, CINAHL, CENTRAL and PsycINFO) were searched from inception to November 2015. Eligible studies were prospective, recruited women with stage 0-3 BC, used a validated anxiety outcome ≥3 months post-treatment completion and used multivariable prediction models. Internationally accepted quality standards were used to assess predictive risk of bias and strength of evidence. Seven studies were identified: five were observational cohorts and two secondary analyses of RCTs. Variability of measurement and selective reporting precluded meta-analysis. Twenty-one candidate predictors were identified in total. Younger age and previous mental health problems were identified as risk factors in ≥3 studies. Clinical variables (e.g. treatment, tumour grade) were not identified as predictors in any studies. No studies adhered to all quality standards. Pre-existing vulnerability to mental health problems and younger age increased the risk of anxiety after completion of treatment for BC survivors, but there was no evidence that chemotherapy was a predictor. Multiple predictors were identified but many lacked reproducibility or were not measured across studies, and inadequate reporting did not allow full evaluation of the multivariable models. The use of quality standards in the development of PRSM within supportive cancer care would improve model quality and performance, thereby allowing professionals to better target support for patients.
J Olive, David
2017-01-01
This text presents methods that are robust to the assumption of a multivariate normal distribution or methods that are robust to certain types of outliers. Instead of using exact theory based on the multivariate normal distribution, the simpler and more applicable large sample theory is given. The text develops among the first practical robust regression and robust multivariate location and dispersion estimators backed by theory. The robust techniques are illustrated for methods such as principal component analysis, canonical correlation analysis, and factor analysis. A simple way to bootstrap confidence regions is also provided. Much of the research on robust multivariate analysis in this book is being published for the first time. The text is suitable for a first course in Multivariate Statistical Analysis or a first course in Robust Statistics. This graduate text is also useful for people who are familiar with the traditional multivariate topics, but want to know more about handling data sets with...
Boersen, Nathan; Carvajal, M Teresa; Morris, Kenneth R; Peck, Garnet E; Pinal, Rodolfo
2015-01-01
While previous research has demonstrated roller compaction operating parameters strongly influence the properties of the final product, a greater emphasis might be placed on the raw material attributes of the formulation. There were two main objectives to this study. First, to assess the effects of different process variables on the properties of the obtained ribbons and downstream granules produced from the rolled compacted ribbons. Second, was to establish if models obtained with formulations of one active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) could predict the properties of similar formulations in terms of the excipients used, but with a different API. Tolmetin and acetaminophen, chosen for their different compaction properties, were roller compacted on Fitzpatrick roller compactor using the same formulation. Models created using tolmetin and tested using acetaminophen. The physical properties of the blends, ribbon, granule and tablet were characterized. Multivariate analysis using partial least squares was used to analyze all data. Multivariate models showed that the operating parameters and raw material attributes were essential in the prediction of ribbon porosity and post-milled particle size. The post compacted ribbon and granule attributes also significantly contributed to the prediction of the tablet tensile strength. Models derived using tolmetin could reasonably predict the ribbon porosity of a second API. After further processing, the post-milled ribbon and granules properties, rather than the physical attributes of the formulation were needed to predict downstream tablet properties. An understanding of the percolation threshold of the formulation significantly improved the predictive ability of the models.
Moons, Karel G. M.; Altman, Douglas G.; Reitsma, Johannes B.; Collins, Gary S.
Prediction models are developed to aid health care providers in estimating the probability that a specific outcome or disease is present (diagnostic prediction models) or will occur in the future (prognostic prediction models), to inform their decision making. Prognostic models here also include
Molenaar, P.C.M.; Nesselroade, J.R.
1998-01-01
The study of intraindividual variability pervades empirical inquiry in virtually all subdisciplines of psychology. The statistical analysis of multivariate time-series data - a central product of intraindividual investigations - requires special modeling techniques. The dynamic factor model (DFM),
Studi Model Penerimaan Tehnologi (Technology Acceptance Model) Novice Accountant
Rustiana, Rustiana
2006-01-01
This study investigates adoption or application of behavior information technologyacceptance. Davis' Technology Acceptance Model is employed to explain perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, and intention to use in information systems. The respondents were 228 accounting students in management information system. Data was collected by questionnaire and then analyzed by using linear regression analysis and independent t-test. The results are in line with most of the hypotheses, only hypo...
Sulub, Yusuf; LoBrutto, Rosario; Vivilecchia, Richard; Wabuyele, Busolo Wa
2008-03-24
Near-infrared calibration models were developed for the determination of content uniformity of pharmaceutical tablets containing 29.4% drug load for two dosage strengths (X and Y). Both dosage strengths have a circular geometry and the only difference is the size and weight. Strength X samples weigh approximately 425 mg with a diameter of 12 mm while strength Y samples, weigh approximately 1700 mg with a diameter of 20mm. Data used in this study were acquired from five NIR instruments manufactured by two different vendors. One of these spectrometers is a dispersive-based NIR system while the other four were Fourier transform (FT) based. The transferability of the optimized partial least-squares (PLS) calibration models developed on the primary instrument (A) located in a research facility was evaluated using spectral data acquired from secondary instruments B, C, D and E. Instruments B and E were located in the same research facility as spectrometer A while instruments C and D were located in a production facility 35 miles away. The same set of tablet samples were used to acquire spectral data from all instruments. This scenario mimics the conventional pharmaceutical technology transfer from research and development to production. Direct cross-instrument prediction without standardization was performed between the primary and each secondary instrument to evaluate the robustness of the primary instrument calibration model. For the strength Y samples, this approach was successful for data acquired on instruments B, C, and D producing root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP) of 1.05, 1.05, and 1.22%, respectively. However for instrument E data, this approach was not successful producing an RMSEP value of 3.40%. A similar deterioration was observed for the strength X samples, with RMSEP values of 2.78, 5.54, 3.40, and 5.78% corresponding to spectral data acquired on instruments B, C, D, and E, respectively. To minimize the effect of instrument variability
Kisi, Ozgur; Parmar, Kulwinder Singh
2016-03-01
This study investigates the accuracy of least square support vector machine (LSSVM), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) and M5 model tree (M5Tree) in modeling river water pollution. Various combinations of water quality parameters, Free Ammonia (AMM), Total Kjeldahl Nitrogen (TKN), Water Temperature (WT), Total Coliform (TC), Fecal Coliform (FC) and Potential of Hydrogen (pH) monitored at Nizamuddin, Delhi Yamuna River in India were used as inputs to the applied models. Results indicated that the LSSVM and MARS models had almost same accuracy and they performed better than the M5Tree model in modeling monthly chemical oxygen demand (COD). The average root mean square error (RMSE) of the LSSVM and M5Tree models was decreased by 1.47% and 19.1% using MARS model, respectively. Adding TC input to the models did not increase their accuracy in modeling COD while adding FC and pH inputs to the models generally decreased the accuracy. The overall results indicated that the MARS and LSSVM models could be successfully used in estimating monthly river water pollution level by using AMM, TKN and WT parameters as inputs.
Uncertainty modeling process for semantic technology
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rommel N. Carvalho
2016-08-01
Full Text Available The ubiquity of uncertainty across application domains generates a need for principled support for uncertainty management in semantically aware systems. A probabilistic ontology provides constructs for representing uncertainty in domain ontologies. While the literature has been growing on formalisms for representing uncertainty in ontologies, there remains little guidance in the knowledge engineering literature for how to design probabilistic ontologies. To address the gap, this paper presents the Uncertainty Modeling Process for Semantic Technology (UMP-ST, a new methodology for modeling probabilistic ontologies. To explain how the methodology works and to verify that it can be applied to different scenarios, this paper describes step-by-step the construction of a proof-of-concept probabilistic ontology. The resulting domain model can be used to support identification of fraud in public procurements in Brazil. While the case study illustrates the development of a probabilistic ontology in the PR-OWL probabilistic ontology language, the methodology is applicable to any ontology formalism that properly integrates uncertainty with domain semantics.
College Students' Technology Arc: A Model for Understanding Progress
Langer, Arthur; Knefelkamp, L. Lee
2008-01-01
This article introduces the Student Technology Arc, a model that evaluates college students 'technology literacy, or how they operate within an education system influenced by new technologies. Student progress is monitored through the Arc's 5 interdependent stages, which reflect growing technological maturity through levels of increasing cognitive…
Keeping learning central: a model for implementing emerging technologies
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Irmgard U. Willcockson
2010-01-01
Full Text Available Felt problem: Technology integration continues to be a challenge for health science faculty. While students expect emerging technologies to be used in the classroom, faculty members desire a strategic process to incorporate technology for the students’ benefit. Our solution: We have developed a model that provides faculty a strategy for integrating emerging technologies into the classroom. The model is grounded in student learning and may be applied to any technology. We present the model alongside examples from faculty who have used it to incorporate technology into their health sciences classrooms.
Keeping learning central: a model for implementing emerging technologies.
Willcockson, Irmgard U; Phelps, Cynthia L
2010-01-15
FELT PROBLEM: Technology integration continues to be a challenge for health science faculty. While students expect emerging technologies to be used in the classroom, faculty members desire a strategic process to incorporate technology for the students' benefit. OUR SOLUTION: We have developed a model that provides faculty a strategy for integrating emerging technologies into the classroom. The model is grounded in student learning and may be applied to any technology. We present the model alongside examples from faculty who have used it to incorporate technology into their health sciences classrooms.
Structural modelling of economic growth: Technological changes
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sukharev Oleg
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Neoclassical and Keynesian theories of economic growth assume the use of Cobb-Douglas modified functions and other aggregate econometric approaches to growth dynamics modelling. In that case explanations of economic growth are based on the logic of the used mathematical ratios often including the ideas about aggregated values change and factors change a priori. The idea of assessment of factor productivity is the fundamental one among modern theories of economic growth. Nevertheless, structural parameters of economic system, institutions and technological changes are practically not considered within known approaches, though the latter is reflected in the changing parameters of production function. At the same time, on the one hand, the ratio of structural elements determines the future value of the total productivity of the factors and, on the other hand, strongly influences the rate of economic growth and its mode of innovative dynamics. To put structural parameters of economic system into growth models with the possibility of assessment of such modes under conditions of interaction of new and old combinations is an essential step in the development of the theory of economic growth/development. It allows forming stimulation policy of economic growth proceeding from the structural ratios and relations recognized for this economic system. It is most convenient in such models to use logistic functions demonstrating the resource change for old and new combination within the economic system. The result of economy development depends on starting conditions, and on institutional parameters of velocity change of resource borrowing in favour of a new combination and creation of its own resource. Model registration of the resource is carried out through the idea of investments into new and old combinations.
Barbeira, Paulo J. S.; Paganotti, Rosilene S. N.; Ássimos, Ariane A.
2013-10-01
This study had the objective of determining the content of dry extract of commercial alcoholic extracts of bee propolis through Partial Least Squares (PLS) multivariate calibration and electronic spectroscopy. The PLS model provided a good prediction of dry extract content in commercial alcoholic extracts of bee propolis in the range of 2.7 a 16.8% (m/v), presenting the advantage of being less laborious and faster than the traditional gravimetric methodology. The PLS model was optimized with outlier detection tests according to the ASTM E 1655-05. In this study it was possible to verify that a centrifugation stage is extremely important in order to avoid the presence of waxes, resulting in a more accurate model. Around 50% of the analyzed samples presented content of dry extract lower than the value established by Brazilian legislation, in most cases, the values found were different from the values claimed in the product's label.
Applied multivariate statistics with R
Zelterman, Daniel
2015-01-01
This book brings the power of multivariate statistics to graduate-level practitioners, making these analytical methods accessible without lengthy mathematical derivations. Using the open source, shareware program R, Professor Zelterman demonstrates the process and outcomes for a wide array of multivariate statistical applications. Chapters cover graphical displays, linear algebra, univariate, bivariate and multivariate normal distributions, factor methods, linear regression, discrimination and classification, clustering, time series models, and additional methods. Zelterman uses practical examples from diverse disciplines to welcome readers from a variety of academic specialties. Those with backgrounds in statistics will learn new methods while they review more familiar topics. Chapters include exercises, real data sets, and R implementations. The data are interesting, real-world topics, particularly from health and biology-related contexts. As an example of the approach, the text examines a sample from the B...
Energy technologies and energy efficiency in economic modelling
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Klinge Jacobsen, Henrik
1998-01-01
This paper discusses different approaches to incorporating energy technologies and technological development in energy-economic models. Technological development is a very important issue in long-term energy demand projections and in environmental analyses. Different assumptions on technological...... technological development. This paper examines the effect on aggregate energy efficiency of using technological models to describe a number of specific technologies and of incorporating these models in an economic model. Different effects from the technology representation are illustrated. Vintage effects...... illustrates the dependence of average efficiencies and productivity on capacity utilisation rates. In the long run regulation induced by environmental policies are also very important for the improvement of aggregate energy efficiency in the energy supply sector. A Danish policy to increase the share...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Olsen, Jørgen; Gerds, Thomas A; Seidelin, Jakob B
2009-01-01
Background: Endoscopically obtained mucosal biopsies play an important role in the differential diagnosis between ulcerative colitis (UC) and Crohn's disease (CD), but in some cases where neither macroscopic nor microscopic signs of inflammation are present the biopsies provide only inconclusive...... biopsies from 78 patients were included. A diagnostic model was derived with the random forest method based on 71 biopsies from 60 patients. The model-internal out-of-bag performance measure yielded perfect classification. Furthermore, the model was validated in independent 18 noninflamed biopsies from 18...... of random forest modeling of genome-wide gene expression data for distinguishing quiescent and active UC colonic mucosa versus control and CD colonic mucosa.(Inflamm Bowel Dis 2009)....
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Smith-Moritz Andreia M
2011-08-01
Full Text Available Abstract We outline a high throughput procedure that improves outlier detection in cell wall screens using FT-NIR spectroscopy of plant leaves. The improvement relies on generating a calibration set from a subset of a mutant population by taking advantage of the Mahalanobis distance outlier scheme to construct a monosaccharide range predictive model using PLS regression. This model was then used to identify specific monosaccharide outliers from the mutant population.
Methods of Multivariate Analysis
Rencher, Alvin C
2012-01-01
Praise for the Second Edition "This book is a systematic, well-written, well-organized text on multivariate analysis packed with intuition and insight . . . There is much practical wisdom in this book that is hard to find elsewhere."-IIE Transactions Filled with new and timely content, Methods of Multivariate Analysis, Third Edition provides examples and exercises based on more than sixty real data sets from a wide variety of scientific fields. It takes a "methods" approach to the subject, placing an emphasis on how students and practitioners can employ multivariate analysis in real-life sit
Enhanced surrogate models for statistical design exploiting space mapping technology
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Koziel, Slawek; Bandler, John W.; Mohamed, Achmed S.
2005-01-01
We present advances in microwave and RF device modeling exploiting Space Mapping (SM) technology. We propose new SM modeling formulations utilizing input mappings, output mappings, frequency scaling and quadratic approximations. Our aim is to enhance circuit models for statistical analysis...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
X. Fang
2013-04-01
Full Text Available One of the purposes of the Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform (CRHM is to diagnose inadequacies in the understanding of the hydrological cycle and its simulation. A physically based hydrological model including a full suite of snow and cold regions hydrology processes as well as warm season, hillslope and groundwater hydrology was developed in CRHM for application in the Marmot Creek Research Basin (~ 9.4 km2, located in the Front Ranges of the Canadian Rocky Mountains. Parameters were selected from digital elevation model, forest, soil, and geological maps, and from the results of many cold regions hydrology studies in the region and elsewhere. Non-calibrated simulations were conducted for six hydrological years during the period 2005–2011 and were compared with detailed field observations of several hydrological cycle components. The results showed good model performance for snow accumulation and snowmelt compared to the field observations for four seasons during the period 2007–2011, with a small bias and normalised root mean square difference (NRMSD ranging from 40 to 42% for the subalpine conifer forests and from 31 to 67% for the alpine tundra and treeline larch forest environments. Overestimation or underestimation of the peak SWE ranged from 1.6 to 29%. Simulations matched well with the observed unfrozen moisture fluctuation in the top soil layer at a lodgepole pine site during the period 2006–2011, with a NRMSD ranging from 17 to 39%, but with consistent overestimation of 7 to 34%. Evaluations of seasonal streamflow during the period 2006–2011 revealed that the model generally predicted well compared to observations at the basin scale, with a NRMSD of 60% and small model bias (1%, while at the sub-basin scale NRMSDs were larger, ranging from 72 to 76%, though overestimation or underestimation for the cumulative seasonal discharge was within 29%. Timing of discharge was better predicted at the Marmot Creek basin outlet
Ostertag, Edwin; Boldrini, Barbara; Luckow, Sabrina; Kessler, Rudolf W.
2012-06-01
Glioblastoma multiforme represents a highly lethal brain tumor. A tumor model has been developed based on the U-251 MG cell line from a human explant. The tumor model simulates different malignancies by controlled expression of the tumor suppressor proteins PTEN and TP53 within the cell lines derived from the wild type. The cells from each different malignant cell line are grown on slides, followed by a paraformaldehyde fixation. UV / VIS and IR spectra are recorded in the cell nuclei. For the differentiation of the cell lines a principal component analysis (PCA) is performed. The PCA demonstrates a good separation of the tumor model cell lines both with UV / VIS spectroscopy and with IR spectroscopy.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Stygar, Anna Helena; Krogh, Mogens Agerbo; Kristensen, Troels
2017-01-01
Evolutionary operations is a method to exploit the association of often small changes in process variables, planned during systematic experimentation and occurring during the normal production flow, to production characteristics to find a way to alter the production process to be more efficient...... from a herd, and an intervention effect on a given day. The model was constructed to handle any number of cows, experimental interventions, different data sources, or presence of control groups. In this study, data from 2 commercial Danish herds were used. In herd 1, data on 98,046 and 12,133 milkings...... tank records. The presented model proved to be a flexible and dynamic tool, and it was successfully applied for systematic experimentation in dairy herds. The model can serve as a decision support tool for on-farm process optimization exploiting planned changes in process variables and the response...
Ting, Hui-Min; Chang, Liyun; Huang, Yu-Jie; Wu, Jia-Ming; Wang, Hung-Yu; Horng, Mong-Fong; Chang, Chun-Ming; Lan, Jen-Hong; Huang, Ya-Yu; Fang, Fu-Min; Leung, Stephen Wan
2014-01-01
Purpose The aim of this study was to develop a multivariate logistic regression model with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) to make valid predictions about the incidence of moderate-to-severe patient-rated xerostomia among head and neck cancer (HNC) patients treated with IMRT. Methods and Materials Quality of life questionnaire datasets from 206 patients with HNC were analyzed. The European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer QLQ-H&N35 and QLQ-C30 questionnaires were used as the endpoint evaluation. The primary endpoint (grade 3+ xerostomia) was defined as moderate-to-severe xerostomia at 3 (XER3m) and 12 months (XER12m) after the completion of IMRT. Normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models were developed. The optimal and suboptimal numbers of prognostic factors for a multivariate logistic regression model were determined using the LASSO with bootstrapping technique. Statistical analysis was performed using the scaled Brier score, Nagelkerke R2, chi-squared test, Omnibus, Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and the AUC. Results Eight prognostic factors were selected by LASSO for the 3-month time point: Dmean-c, Dmean-i, age, financial status, T stage, AJCC stage, smoking, and education. Nine prognostic factors were selected for the 12-month time point: Dmean-i, education, Dmean-c, smoking, T stage, baseline xerostomia, alcohol abuse, family history, and node classification. In the selection of the suboptimal number of prognostic factors by LASSO, three suboptimal prognostic factors were fine-tuned by Hosmer-Lemeshow test and AUC, i.e., Dmean-c, Dmean-i, and age for the 3-month time point. Five suboptimal prognostic factors were also selected for the 12-month time point, i.e., Dmean-i, education, Dmean-c, smoking, and T stage. The overall performance for both time points of the NTCP model in terms of scaled Brier score, Omnibus, and Nagelkerke R2 was satisfactory and corresponded well with the expected values. Conclusions
Multivariate Time Series Search
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Multivariate Time-Series (MTS) are ubiquitous, and are generated in areas as disparate as sensor recordings in aerospace systems, music and video streams, medical...
Loymans, Rik J. B.; Honkoop, Persijn J.; Termeer, Evelien H.; Snoeck-Stroband, Jiska B.; Assendelft, Willem J. J.; Schermer, Tjard R. J.; Chung, Kian Fan; Sousa, Ana R.; Sterk, Peter J.; Reddel, Helen K.; Sont, Jacob K.; ter Riet, Gerben
2016-01-01
Preventing exacerbations of asthma is a major goal in current guidelines. We aimed to develop a prediction model enabling practitioners to identify patients at risk of severe exacerbations who could potentially benefit from a change in management. We used data from a 12-month primary care pragmatic
Loymans, R.J.; Honkoop, P.J.; Termeer, E.H.; Snoeck-Stroband, J.B.; Assendelft, W.J.J.; Schermer, T.R.J.; Chung, K.F.; Sousa, A.R.; Sterk, P.J.; Reddel, H.K.; Sont, J.K.; Riet, G. Ter
2016-01-01
BACKGROUND: Preventing exacerbations of asthma is a major goal in current guidelines. We aimed to develop a prediction model enabling practitioners to identify patients at risk of severe exacerbations who could potentially benefit from a change in management. METHODS: We used data from a 12-month
Westerhuis, J.A; Coenegracht, P.M J
1997-01-01
The pharmaceutical process of wet granulation and tableting is described as a two-step process. Besides the process variables of both steps and the composition variables of the powder mixture, the physical properties of the intermediate granules are also used to model the crushing strength and
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Riches, S.F.; Payne, G.S.; Morgan, V.A.; DeSouza, N.M. [Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust and Institute of Cancer Research, CRUK and EPSRC Cancer Imaging Centre, Sutton, Surrey (United Kingdom); Dearnaley, D. [Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust and Institute of Cancer Research, Department of Urology and Department of Academic Radiotherapy, Sutton, Surrey (United Kingdom); Morgan, S. [The Ottawa Hospital Cancer Centre and the University of Ottawa, Division of Radiation Oncology, Ottawa, Ontario (Canada); Partridge, M. [The Institute of Cancer Research, Section of Radiotherapy and Imaging, Sutton, Surrey (United Kingdom); University of Oxford, The Gray Institute for Radiation Oncology and Biology, Oxford (United Kingdom); Livni, N. [Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust Chelsea, Department of Histopathology, London (United Kingdom); Ogden, C. [Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust Chelsea, Department of Urology, London (United Kingdom)
2015-05-01
The objectives are determine the optimal combination of MR parameters for discriminating tumour within the prostate using linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and to compare model accuracy with that of an experienced radiologist. Multiparameter MRIs in 24 patients before prostatectomy were acquired. Tumour outlines from whole-mount histology, T{sub 2}-defined peripheral zone (PZ), and central gland (CG) were superimposed onto slice-matched parametric maps. T{sub 2,} Apparent Diffusion Coefficient, initial area under the gadolinium curve, vascular parameters (K{sup trans},K{sub ep},V{sub e}), and (choline+polyamines+creatine)/citrate were compared between tumour and non-tumour tissues. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves determined sensitivity and specificity at spectroscopic voxel resolution and per lesion, and LDA determined the optimal multiparametric model for identifying tumours. Accuracy was compared with an expert observer. Tumours were significantly different from PZ and CG for all parameters (all p < 0.001). Area under the ROC curve for discriminating tumour from non-tumour was significantly greater (p < 0.001) for the multiparametric model than for individual parameters; at 90 % specificity, sensitivity was 41 % (MRSI voxel resolution) and 59 % per lesion. At this specificity, an expert observer achieved 28 % and 49 % sensitivity, respectively. The model was more accurate when parameters from all techniques were included and performed better than an expert observer evaluating these data. (orig.)
Westerhuis, J.A; Coenegracht, P.M J; Lerk, C.F
1997-01-01
The process of tablet manufacturing with granulation is described as a two-step process. The first step comprises wet granulation of the powder mixture, and in the second step the granules are compressed into tablets. For the modelling of the pharmaceutical process of wet granulation and tableting,
Bolck, A.; Ni, H.; Lopatka, M.
2015-01-01
Likelihood ratio (LR) models are moving into the forefront of forensic evidence evaluation as these methods are adopted by a diverse range of application areas in forensic science. We examine the fundamentally different results that can be achieved when feature- and score-based methodologies are
Schoch, Anna; Blöthe, Jan Henrik; Hoffmann, Thomas; Schrott, Lothar
2018-02-01
There is a notable discrepancy between detailed sediment budget studies in small headwater catchments ( 103 km2) in higher order catchments applying modeling and/or remote sensing based approaches for major sediment storage delineation. To bridge the gap between these scales, we compiled an inventory of sediment and bedrock coverage from field mapping, remote sensing analysis and published data for five key sites in the Upper Rhone Basin (Val d'Illiez, Val de la Liène, Turtmanntal, Lötschental, Goms; 360.3 km2, equivalent to 6.7% of the Upper Rhone Basin). This inventory was used as training and testing data for the classification of sediment and bedrock cover. From a digital elevation model (2 × 2 m ground resolution) and Landsat imagery we derived 22 parameters characterizing local morphometry, topography and position, contributing area, and climatic and biotic factors on different spatial scales, which were used as inputs for different statistical models (logistic regression, principal component logistic regression, generalized additive model). Best prediction results with an excellent performance (mean AUROC: 0.8721 ± 0.0012) and both a high spatial and non-spatial transferability were achieved applying a generalized additive model. Since the model has a high thematic consistency, the independent input variables chosen based on their geomorphic relevance are suitable to model the spatial distribution of sediment. Our high-resolution classification shows that 53.5 ± 21.7% of the Upper Rhone Basin are covered with sediment. These are by no means evenly distributed: small headwaters (< 5 km2) feature a very strong variability in sediment coverage, with watersheds drowning in sediments juxtaposed to watersheds devoid of sediment cover. In contrast, larger watersheds predominantly show a bimodal distribution, with highest densities for bedrock (30-40%) being consistently lower than for sediment cover (60-65%). Earlier studies quantifying sedimentary cover and
Kandelbauer, A; Kessler, W; Kessler, R W
2008-03-01
The laccase-catalysed transformation of indigo carmine (IC) with and without a redox active mediator was studied using online UV-visible spectroscopy. Deconvolution of the mixture spectra obtained during the reaction was performed on a model-free basis using multivariate curve resolution (MCR). Thereby, the time courses of educts, products, and reaction intermediates involved in the transformation were reconstructed without prior mechanistic assumptions. Furthermore, the spectral signature of a reactive intermediate which could not have been detected by a classical hard-modelling approach was extracted from the chemometric analysis. The findings suggest that the combined use of UV-visible spectroscopy and MCR may lead to unexpectedly deep mechanistic evidence otherwise buried in the experimental data. Thus, although rather an unspecific method, UV-visible spectroscopy can prove useful in the monitoring of chemical reactions when combined with MCR. This offers a wide range of chemists a cheap and readily available, highly sensitive tool for chemical reaction online monitoring.
Zhang, Jun; Yao, Duoxi; Su, Yue
2018-02-01
Under the current situation of energy demand, coal is still one of the major energy sources in China for a certain period of time, so the task of coal mine safety production remains arduous. In order to identify the water source of the mine accurately, this article takes the example from Renlou and Tongting coal mines in the northern Anhui mining area. A total of 7 conventional water chemical indexes were selected, including Ca2+, Mg2+, Na++K+, Cl-, SO4 2-, HCO3 - and TDS, to establish a multivariate matrix model for the source identifying inrush water. The results show that the model is simple and is rarely limited by the quantity of water samples, and the recognition effect is ideal, which can be applied to the control and treatment for water inrush.
MODELING PROBABILISTIC CONFLICT OF TECHNOLOGICAL SYSTEMS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
D. B. Desyatov
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Recently for the study of conflict increasingly used method of mathematical optical modeling. Its importance stems from the fact that experimental research such conflicts rather time-consuming and complex. However, existing approaches to the study of conflict do not take into account the stochastic nature of the systems, suffers from conceptual incompleteness. There is a need to develop models, algorithms and principles, in order to assess the conflict, to choose conflict resolution to ensure that not the worst of conditions. For stochastic technological systems as a utility function, we consider the probability of achieving a given objective. We assume that some system S1 is in conflict with the system S2, (SR2R К SR1R, if q(SR1R,SR2R
Product with service, technology with business model
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sakao, Tomohiko; McAloone, Tim C.
2011-01-01
Looking back over the last decade, the importance of an expanded understanding of engineering design has been shared within the engineering design community. Presented concepts and methods to support such expansion include Functional Product Development, Service Engineering, and Product/Service-S...... promising concept beyond PSS design; via an integrated development of technology and business model. This can be of particular interest for further research, especially due to its high freedom for designers.......Looking back over the last decade, the importance of an expanded understanding of engineering design has been shared within the engineering design community. Presented concepts and methods to support such expansion include Functional Product Development, Service Engineering, and Product....../Service-Systems (PSS) design. This paper first explains PSS design as a type of an expansion of the engineering design of a physical product. Secondly, it gives a review of PSS research and a projection of future research issues, also ranging out into untraditional fields of research. Finally, it presents a new...
Houle, Timothy T; Turner, Dana P; Golding, Adrienne N; Porter, John A H; Martin, Vincent T; Penzien, Donald B; Tegeler, Charles H
2017-07-01
To develop and validate a prediction model that forecasts future migraine attacks for an individual headache sufferer. Many headache patients and physicians believe that precipitants of headache can be identified and avoided or managed to reduce the frequency of headache attacks. Of the numerous candidate triggers, perceived stress has received considerable attention for its association with the onset of headache in episodic and chronic headache sufferers. However, no evidence is available to support forecasting headache attacks within individuals using any of the candidate headache triggers. This longitudinal cohort with forecasting model development study enrolled 100 participants with episodic migraine with or without aura, and N = 95 contributed 4626 days of electronic diary data and were included in the analysis. Individual headache forecasts were derived from current headache state and current levels of stress using several aspects of the Daily Stress Inventory, a measure of daily hassles that is completed at the end of each day. The primary outcome measure was the presence/absence of any headache attack (head pain > 0 on a numerical rating scale of 0-10) over the next 24 h period. After removing missing data (n = 431 days), participants in the study experienced a headache attack on 1613/4195 (38.5%) days. A generalized linear mixed-effects forecast model using either the frequency of stressful events or the perceived intensity of these events fit the data well. This simple forecasting model possessed promising predictive utility with an AUC of 0.73 (95% CI 0.71-0.75) in the training sample and an AUC of 0.65 (95% CI 0.6-0.67) in a leave-one-out validation sample. This forecasting model had a Brier score of 0.202 and possessed good calibration between forecasted probabilities and observed frequencies but had only low levels of resolution (ie, sharpness). This study demonstrates that future headache attacks can be forecasted for a diverse group of
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Mattson, Earl [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Smith, Robert [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Fujita, Yoshiko [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); McLing, Travis [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Neupane, Ghanashyam [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Palmer, Carl [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Reed, David [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Thompson, Vicki [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)
2015-03-01
The project was aimed at demonstrating that the geothermometric predictions can be improved through the application of multi-element reaction path modeling that accounts for lithologic and tectonic settings, while also accounting for biological influences on geochemical temperature indicators. The limited utilization of chemical signatures by individual traditional geothermometer in the development of reservoir temperature estimates may have been constraining their reliability for evaluation of potential geothermal resources. This project, however, was intended to build a geothermometry tool which can integrate multi-component reaction path modeling with process-optimization capability that can be applied to dilute, low-temperature water samples to consistently predict reservoir temperature within ±30 °C. The project was also intended to evaluate the extent to which microbiological processes can modulate the geochemical signals in some thermal waters and influence the geothermometric predictions.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Farjam, R; Pramanik, P; Srinivasan, A; Chapman, C; Tsien, C; Lawrence, T; Cao, Y [University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States)
2014-06-15
Purpose: Vascular injury could be a cause of hippocampal dysfunction leading to late neurocognitive decline in patients receiving brain radiotherapy (RT). Hence, our aim was to develop a multivariate interaction model for characterization of hippocampal vascular dose-response and early prediction of radiation-induced late neurocognitive impairments. Methods: 27 patients (17 males and 10 females, age 31–80 years) were enrolled in an IRB-approved prospective longitudinal study. All patients were diagnosed with a low-grade glioma or benign tumor and treated by 3-D conformal or intensity-modulated RT with a median dose of 54 Gy (50.4–59.4 Gy in 1.8− Gy fractions). Six DCE-MRI scans were performed from pre-RT to 18 months post-RT. DCE data were fitted to the modified Toft model to obtain the transfer constant of gadolinium influx from the intravascular space into the extravascular extracellular space, Ktrans, and the fraction of blood plasma volume, Vp. The hippocampus vascular property alterations after starting RT were characterized by changes in the hippocampal mean values of, μh(Ktrans)τ and μh(Vp)τ. The dose-response, Δμh(Ktrans/Vp)pre->τ, was modeled using a multivariate linear regression considering integrations of doses with age, sex, hippocampal laterality and presence of tumor/edema near a hippocampus. Finally, the early vascular dose-response in hippocampus was correlated with neurocognitive decline 6 and 18 months post-RT. Results: The μh(Ktrans) increased significantly from pre-RT to 1 month post-RT (p<0.0004). The multivariate model showed that the dose effect on Δμh(Ktrans)pre->1M post-RT was interacted with sex (p<0.0007) and age (p<0.00004), with the dose-response more pronounced in older females. Also, the vascular dose-response in the left hippocampus of females was significantly correlated with memory function decline at 6 (r = − 0.95, p<0.0006) and 18 (r = −0.88, p<0.02) months post-RT. Conclusion: The hippocampal vascular
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Pedro Beschoren da Costa
Full Text Available Plant growth-promoting bacteria can greatly assist sustainable farming by improving plant health and biomass while reducing fertilizer use. The plant-microorganism-environment interaction is an open and complex system, and despite the active research in the area, patterns in root ecology are elusive. Here, we simultaneously analyzed the plant growth-promoting bacteria datasets from seven independent studies that shared a methodology for bioprospection and phenotype screening. The soil richness of the isolate's origin was classified by a Principal Component Analysis. A Categorical Principal Component Analysis was used to classify the soil richness according to isolate's indolic compound production, siderophores production and phosphate solubilization abilities, and bacterial genera composition. Multiple patterns and relationships were found and verified with nonparametric hypothesis testing. Including niche colonization in the analysis, we proposed a model to explain the expression of bacterial plant growth-promoting traits according to the soil nutritional status. Our model shows that plants favor interaction with growth hormone producers under rich nutrient conditions but favor nutrient solubilizers under poor conditions. We also performed several comparisons among the different genera, highlighting interesting ecological interactions and limitations. Our model could be used to direct plant growth-promoting bacteria bioprospection and metagenomic sampling.
Nayak, Ashish Kumar; Pal, Anjali
2017-09-15
The present work explores, for the first time, the adsorptive removal of methylene blue (MB) dye from aqueous solution using different parts of abundantly available agricultural product, Abelmoschus esculentus (lady's finger), and the processed seed powder (designated as LFSP) was found as the best. The aforesaid biosorbent was characterized using field emission scanning electron microscopy (FESEM), Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) and pH ZPC analyses. The biosorption performance was evaluated using batch studies at 303 K, at varying operating conditions such as solution pH, biosorbent dosage, initial dye concentration and contact time. The pseudo-second order kinetic model was followed during the adsorption, and it was also found that intra-particle diffusion played a prominent role in the rate-controlling step. Langmuir and Temkin isotherms were followed the best, as was evident from the lower % non-linear error values and higher degree of determination coefficients. Thermodynamic investigations revealed that the biosorption processes were spontaneous and endothermic. Using the response surface methodology (RSM), a central composite design was developed, and subsequently applied as an input for the artificial neural network (ANN) approach in order to further analyze the interactive term effects between the significant process parameters, on the maximum biosorption capacity for MB dye removal by LFSP. The non-linear error functions and linear regression coefficients on the RSM model showed its dominance behaviour over ANN model for both data fitting and estimation capabilities. Using the statistical optimization, the maximum uptake capacity was found to be 205.656 mg/g. Experiments were conducted to regenerate the adsorbent and to recover the adsorbed dye using the eluent 0.5 M HCl. Cost analysis showed that, LFSP was 7 times cheaper than commercially available activated carbons. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Paulino José García Nieto
2016-05-01
Full Text Available Remaining useful life (RUL estimation is considered as one of the most central points in the prognostics and health management (PHM. The present paper describes a nonlinear hybrid ABC–MARS-based model for the prediction of the remaining useful life of aircraft engines. Indeed, it is well-known that an accurate RUL estimation allows failure prevention in a more controllable way so that the effective maintenance can be carried out in appropriate time to correct impending faults. The proposed hybrid model combines multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS, which have been successfully adopted for regression problems, with the artificial bee colony (ABC technique. This optimization technique involves parameter setting in the MARS training procedure, which significantly influences the regression accuracy. However, its use in reliability applications has not yet been widely explored. Bearing this in mind, remaining useful life values have been predicted here by using the hybrid ABC–MARS-based model from the remaining measured parameters (input variables for aircraft engines with success. A correlation coefficient equal to 0.92 was obtained when this hybrid ABC–MARS-based model was applied to experimental data. The agreement of this model with experimental data confirmed its good performance. The main advantage of this predictive model is that it does not require information about the previous operation states of the aircraft engine.
Stirrup, Oliver T; Babiker, Abdel G; Carpenter, James R; Copas, Andrew J
2016-04-30
Longitudinal data are widely analysed using linear mixed models, with 'random slopes' models particularly common. However, when modelling, for example, longitudinal pre-treatment CD4 cell counts in HIV-positive patients, the incorporation of non-stationary stochastic processes such as Brownian motion has been shown to lead to a more biologically plausible model and a substantial improvement in model fit. In this article, we propose two further extensions. Firstly, we propose the addition of a fractional Brownian motion component, and secondly, we generalise the model to follow a multivariate-t distribution. These extensions are biologically plausible, and each demonstrated substantially improved fit on application to example data from the Concerted Action on SeroConversion to AIDS and Death in Europe study. We also propose novel procedures for residual diagnostic plots that allow such models to be assessed. Cohorts of patients were simulated from the previously reported and newly developed models in order to evaluate differences in predictions made for the timing of treatment initiation under different clinical management strategies. A further simulation study was performed to demonstrate the substantial biases in parameter estimates of the mean slope of CD4 decline with time that can occur when random slopes models are applied in the presence of censoring because of treatment initiation, with the degree of bias found to depend strongly on the treatment initiation rule applied. Our findings indicate that researchers should consider more complex and flexible models for the analysis of longitudinal biomarker data, particularly when there are substantial missing data, and that the parameter estimates from random slopes models must be interpreted with caution. © 2015 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Ryan, Helen M; Jones, Meghan A; Payne, Beth A; Sharma, Sumedha; Hutfield, Anna M; Lee, Tang; Ukah, U Vivian; Walley, Keith R; Magee, Laura A; von Dadelszen, Peter
2017-09-01
To evaluate the performance of the Modified Early Obstetric Warning System (MEOWS) to predict maternal ICU admission in an obstetric population. Case-control study. Two maternity units in Vancouver, Canada, one with ICU facilities, between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2011. Pregnant or recently delivered (≤6 weeks) women admitted to the hospital for >24 hours. Three control patients were randomly selected per case and matched for year of admission. Retrospective, observational, case-control validation study investigating the physiologic predictors of admission in the 24-hour period preceding either ICU admission >24 hours (cases) or following admission (control patients). Model performance was assessed based on sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values. Forty-six women were admitted to the ICU for >24 hours (0.51/1000 deliveries); the study included 138 randomly selected control patients. There were no maternal deaths in the cohort. MEOWS had high sensitivity (0.96) but low specificity (0.54) for ICU admission >24 hours, whereas ≥1 one red trigger maintained sensitivity (0.96) and improved specificity (0.73). Altering MEOWS trigger parameters may improve the accuracy of MEOWS in predicting ICU admission. Formal modelling of a MEOWS scoring system is required to support evidence-based care. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Business modeling process for university’s technology transfer offices
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Marin Alexandru
2017-07-01
Full Text Available The present paper is devoted to analyze the appropriate recommendations to increase the effectiveness of technology transfer centers from Romanian National Network for Innovation and Technology Transfer - ReNITT, hosted by universities. The study is focused on the definition of a conceptual frame to develop specific business models, by the specialized compartments from technology/knowledge transfer entities, and using the specific instruments of business modeling process. The qualitative and quantitative analysis of the 8 steps scheduling of pairing the building blocks of the Business Models Canvas, corresponding to the specific technology transfer models, and taking into account the elements of the value chain of technology transfer and making connections with technology readiness level, allows a clarification of this relative “fuzzy” and complicated modeling process of university’s Technology Transfer Offices activities, gathering in a concentrated format all necessary information. According to their mission, objectives and strategies, universities decide upon a certain business model for the Technology Transfer Offices, adaptable to client segment and value proposition to attain, by the offered services portfolio. In conclusion, during their activities, Technology Transfer Offices identify, validate and exploit the opportunities originated from applicative research results, by “technology push” methods. Also, there are necessary specific competences (human and material to develop externally aware business models starting from real needs of the clients, by “market pull” techniques, that would contribute to enhance the endogenous innovation potential of firms.
An Analysis of Technology Acceptance in Turkey using Fuzzy Logic and Structural Equation Modelling
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bilgin Şenel
2011-12-01
Full Text Available Technology is in a constant progress in the way of satisfying increasing human needs. This fact will hold true for the years to come. However, the level of adaptation to technological advancements varies greatly across countries. The pace of adjustment is directly proportional to the importance attached to and the funds allocated for this purpose. Despite the abundance of technological investments in Turkey in recent years, there are only a few studies analyzing the current level of individual interest in technology. This study therefore aims to determine the technology acceptance of Turkish people by using the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM developed by Davis (1989 and to demonstrate the reasons to accept or not accept technology departing from the links between dimensions. While accomplishing this aim, Structural Equation Model (SEM that is a highly strong multivariable analysis technique that makes possible the evaluation of latent structures like psychosocial needs, and the Fuzzy Logic Theorem that provides strong and significant instruments for the measurement of ambiguities and provides the opportunity to meaningfully represent ambiguous concepts expressed in the natural language were used. According to the findings of this study, it was determined that the perceived ease of use is more influential in people’s acceptance of technology than the perceived usefulness is. It was also found that technology acceptance does not differ significantly at the statistical significance level of 0.05 with respect to the participants’ demographic characteristics (age, gender, education level, hometown etc.. In addition, analyses performed to define the relationships between the dimensions of the TAM yielded results that highly supported the TAM. In other words, the dimensions affect technology acceptance to positive and significant degrees
Industrialized Development Models of Agricultural Scientific and Technological Achievements
WANG, Wanjiang
2015-01-01
Industrialization of agricultural scientific and technological achievements has become an extremely important part in agricultural structural adjustment and agricultural economic development. Basic models for industrialization of Chinaâ€™s agricultural scientific and technological achievements should be: (i) integrating scientific and technological development and production relying on large enterprises; (ii) integrating scientific research and development with agricultural scientific and tec...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hegerty Scott W.
2015-11-01
Full Text Available Recent commodity price declines have added to worldwide macroeconomic risk, which has had serious effects on both commodity exporters and manufacturers that use oil and raw materials. These effects have been keenly felt in Central and Eastern Europe—particularly in Russia, but also in European Union member states. This study tests for spillovers among commodity-price and macroeconomic volatility by applying a VAR(1-MGARCH model to monthly time series for eight CEE countries. Overall, we find that oil prices do indeed have effects throughout the region, as do spillovers among exchange rates, inflation, interest rates, and output, but that they differ from country to country—particularly when different degrees of transition and integration are considered. While oil prices have a limited impact on the currencies of Russia and Ukraine, they do make a much larger contribution to the two countries’ macroeconomic volatility than do spillovers among the other macroeconomic variables.
Fuzzy multivariable control of domestic heat pumps
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Underwood, C.P.
2015-01-01
Poor control has been identified as one of the reasons why recent field trials of domestic heat pumps in the UK have produced disappointing results. Most of the technology in use today uses a thermostatically-controlled fixed speed compressor with a mechanical expansion device. This article investigates improved control of these heat pumps through the design and evaluation of a new multivariable fuzzy logic control system utilising a variable speed compressor drive with capacity control linked through to evaporator superheat control. A new dynamic thermal model of a domestic heat pump validated using experimental data forms the basis of the work. The proposed control system is evaluated using median and extreme daily heating demand profiles for a typical UK house compared with a basic thermostatically-controlled alternative. Results show good tracking of the heating temperature and superheat control variables, reduced cycling and an improvement in performance averaging 20%. - Highlights: • A new dynamic model of a domestic heat pump is developed and validated. • A new multivariable fuzzy logic heat pump control system is developed/reported. • The fuzzy controller regulates both plant capacity and evaporator superheat degree. • Thermal buffer storage is also considered as well as compressor cycling. • The new controller shows good variable tracking and a reduction in energy of 20%.
Use of additive technologies for practical working with complex models for foundry technologies
Olkhovik, E.; Butsanets, A. A.; Ageeva, A. A.
2016-07-01
The article presents the results of research of additive technology (3D printing) application for developing a geometrically complex model of castings parts. Investment casting is well known and widely used technology for the production of complex parts. The work proposes the use of a 3D printing technology for manufacturing models parts, which are removed by thermal destruction. Traditional methods of equipment production for investment casting involve the use of manual labor which has problems with dimensional accuracy, and CNC technology which is less used. Such scheme is low productive and demands considerable time. We have offered an alternative method which consists in printing the main knots using a 3D printer (PLA and ABS) with a subsequent production of castings models from them. In this article, the main technological methods are considered and their problems are discussed. The dimensional accuracy of models in comparison with investment casting technology is considered as the main aspect.
Messenzehl, Karoline; Meyer, Hanna; Otto, Jan-Christoph; Hoffmann, Thomas; Dikau, Richard
2017-06-01
In mountain geosystems, rockfalls are among the most effective sediment transfer processes, reflected in the regional-scale distribution of talus slopes. However, the understanding of the key controlling factors seems to decrease with increasing spatial scale, due to emergent and complex system behavior and not least to recent methodological shortcomings in rockfall modeling research. In this study, we aim (i) to develop a new approach to identify major regional-scale rockfall controls and (ii) to quantify the relative importance of these controls. Using a talus slope inventory in the Turtmann Valley (Swiss Alps), we applied for the first time the decision-tree based random forest algorithm (RF) in combination with a principal component logistic regression (PCLR) to evaluate the spatial distribution of rockfall activity. This study presents new insights into the discussion on whether periglacial rockfall events are controlled more by topo-climatic, cryospheric, paraglacial or/and rock mechanical properties. Both models explain the spatial rockfall pattern very well, given the high areas under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves of > 0.83. Highest accuracy was obtained by the RF, correctly predicting 88% of the rockfall source areas. The RF appears to have a great potential in geomorphic research involving multicollinear data. The regional permafrost distribution, coupled to the bedrock curvature and valley topography, was detected to be the primary rockfall control. Rockfall source areas cluster within a low-radiation elevation belt (2900-3300 m a.s.l,) consistent with a permafrost probability of > 90%. The second most important factor is the time since deglaciation, reflected by the high abundance of rockfalls along recently deglaciated (< 100 years), north-facing slopes. However, our findings also indicate a strong rock mechanical control on the paraglacial rockfall activity, declining either exponentially or linearly since deglaciation. The study
Sappa, Giuseppe; Ergul, Sibel; Ferranti, Flavia
2014-01-01
Contamination of groundwater by naturally occurring arsenic has recently become a disturbing environmental problem in Viterbo area, Central Italy. Arsenic concentrations in most of the public supply networks exceed the maximum allowable limit of 10 μg/l (WHO) for drinking water. The primary purpose of this paper is to obtain a better understanding of the factors contributing to the high levels of As in water supply networks. This study focuses on (a) the determination of basic hydrochemical characteristics of groundwater, (b) the identification of the major sources and processes controlling the As contamination in public supply networks, (c) to find out possible relationships among the As and other trace elements through principal component analysis (PCA). Groundwater samples from public water supply wells and springs were collected and analysed for physico-chemical parameters and trace elements. Springs and well water samples are predominantly of the Na-HCO3, Na -Ca-HCO3 and Ca-HCO3 types and the highest arsenic concentrations were observed in Na-HCO3 type water. Eh-pH diagrams reveal that H2AsO4 (-) and HAsO4 (2-), As(V) arsenate, are the dominating As species highlighting slightly to moderately oxidizing conditions. Geochemical modeling indicates that arsenic-bearing phases were undersaturated in the groundwater, however most of the samples were saturated with respect to Fe (i.e. magnetite, hematite and goethite) and Al (diaspore and boehmite) oxide and hydroxide minerals. Concentrations of As, Li, B, Co, Sr, Mo, U and Se are highly correlated (r > 0.7) with each other, however in some groundwater samples As show also good correlations (r > 0.5) with Fe and Mn elements reflecting the relationships among the trace elements result from different geochemical processes. Evaluation of the principal component (PCA) analysis and geochemical modeling suggest that the occurrence of As and other trace element concentrations in groundwater are probably derived
Modeling and simulation technology readiness levels.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Clay, Robert L.; Shneider, Max S.; Marburger, S. J.; Trucano, Timothy Guy
2006-01-01
This report summarizes the results of an effort to establish a framework for assigning and communicating technology readiness levels (TRLs) for the modeling and simulation (ModSim) capabilities at Sandia National Laboratories. This effort was undertaken as a special assignment for the Weapon Simulation and Computing (WSC) program office led by Art Hale, and lasted from January to September 2006. This report summarizes the results, conclusions, and recommendations, and is intended to help guide the program office in their decisions about the future direction of this work. The work was broken out into several distinct phases, starting with establishing the scope and definition of the assignment. These are characterized in a set of key assertions provided in the body of this report. Fundamentally, the assignment involved establishing an intellectual framework for TRL assignments to Sandia's modeling and simulation capabilities, including the development and testing of a process to conduct the assignments. To that end, we proposed a methodology for both assigning and understanding the TRLs, and outlined some of the restrictions that need to be placed on this process and the expected use of the result. One of the first assumptions we overturned was the notion of a ''static'' TRL--rather we concluded that problem context was essential in any TRL assignment, and that leads to dynamic results (i.e., a ModSim tool's readiness level depends on how it is used, and by whom). While we leveraged the classic TRL results from NASA, DoD, and Sandia's NW program, we came up with a substantially revised version of the TRL definitions, maintaining consistency with the classic level definitions and the Predictive Capability Maturity Model (PCMM) approach. In fact, we substantially leveraged the foundation the PCMM team provided, and augmented that as needed. Given the modeling and simulation TRL definitions and our proposed assignment methodology, we
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Maths Halstensen
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Liquid speciation is important for reliable process design and optimization of gas-liquid absorption process. Liquid-phase speciation methods are currently available, although they involve tedious and time-consuming laboratory work. Raman spectroscopy is well suited for in situ monitoring of aqueous chemical reactions. Here, we report on the development of a method for speciation of the CO2-NH3-H2O equilibrium using Raman spectroscopy and PLS-R modeling. The quantification methodology presented here offers a novel approach to provide rapid and reliable predictions of the carbon distribution of the CO2-NH3-H2O system, which may be used for process control and optimization. Validation of the reported speciation method which is based on independent, known, NH3-CO2-H2O solutions shows estimated prediction uncertainties for carbonate, bicarbonate, and carbamate of 6.45 mmol/kg H2O, 34.39 mmol/kg H2O, and 100.9 mmol/kg H2O, respectively.
Gao, Yongnian; Gao, Junfeng; Yin, Hongbin; Liu, Chuansheng; Xia, Ting; Wang, Jing; Huang, Qi
2015-03-15
Remote sensing has been widely used for ater quality monitoring, but most of these monitoring studies have only focused on a few water quality variables, such as chlorophyll-a, turbidity, and total suspended solids, which have typically been considered optically active variables. Remote sensing presents a challenge in estimating the phosphorus concentration in water. The total phosphorus (TP) in lakes has been estimated from remotely sensed observations, primarily using the simple individual band ratio or their natural logarithm and the statistical regression method based on the field TP data and the spectral reflectance. In this study, we investigated the possibility of establishing a spatial modeling scheme to estimate the TP concentration of a large lake from multi-spectral satellite imagery using band combinations and regional multivariate statistical modeling techniques, and we tested the applicability of the spatial modeling scheme. The results showed that HJ-1A CCD multi-spectral satellite imagery can be used to estimate the TP concentration in a lake. The correlation and regression analysis showed a highly significant positive relationship between the TP concentration and certain remotely sensed combination variables. The proposed modeling scheme had a higher accuracy for the TP concentration estimation in the large lake compared with the traditional individual band ratio method and the whole-lake scale regression-modeling scheme. The TP concentration values showed a clear spatial variability and were high in western Lake Chaohu and relatively low in eastern Lake Chaohu. The northernmost portion, the northeastern coastal zone and the southeastern portion of western Lake Chaohu had the highest TP concentrations, and the other regions had the lowest TP concentration values, except for the coastal zone of eastern Lake Chaohu. These results strongly suggested that the proposed modeling scheme, i.e., the band combinations and the regional multivariate
Kirmizi, Özkan
2014-01-01
The aim of this study is to investigate technology acceptance of prospective English teachers by using Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) in Turkish context. The study is based on Structural Equation Model (SEM). The participants of the study from English Language Teaching Departments of Hacettepe, Gazi and Baskent Universities. The participants…
Technology Marketing using PCA , SOM, and STP Strategy Modeling
Sunghae Jun
2011-01-01
Technology marketing is a total processing about identifying and meeting the technological needs of human society. Most technology results exist in intellectual properties like patents. In our research, we consider patent document as a technology. So patent data are analyzed by Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Self Organizing Map (SOM) for STP(Segmentation, Targeting, and Positioning) strategy modeling. STP is a popular approach for developing marketing strategies. We use STP strategy m...
SET-MM – A Software Evaluation Technology Maturity Model
García-Castro, Raúl
2011-01-01
The application of software evaluation technologies in different research fields to verify and validate research is a key factor in the progressive evolution of those fields. Nowadays, however, to have a clear picture of the maturity of the technologies used in evaluations or to know which steps to follow in order to improve the maturity of such technologies is not easy. This paper describes a Software Evaluation Technology Maturity Model that can be used to assess software evaluation tech...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kolsoom Mohammad Moradi
2017-02-01
Full Text Available Background: Bromide is found naturally in groundwater and surface water. The rapid growth of industrial activities, drainage of surface runoff, and use of methyl bromide in pesticides has increased bromide discharge to the environment. Disinfection of water-containing bromide causes the creation of additional products of organo-halogenated that are considered cancer-causing agents. In this study, the effect and optimization of factors in removal of this ion was evaluated by using the nano-photocatalytic UV/ZnO process. Methods: This analytical study was conducted in a batch system by the phenol-red method. The test design was performed through the analysis model of multi-factor variance with 99 subjects, while the main, interactive, and reciprocal effects of variables, such as reaction time, catalyst concentration, bromide concentration, and pH at different levels of each factor, were analysed by using SPSS version 16. Results: The main, interactive, and reciprocal effects of factors were significant in three different levels with P < 0.001, and the optimal level of the factors reaction time, catalyst concentration, bromide concentration, and pH were 120 minutes, 0.5, 0.1, and 7 mg/L, respectively, by using the Schaffer test. The highest removal efficiency of 95% was obtained at least 91.56 and a maximum of 94.76% was obtained under optimal conditions of all factors. Conclusion: The results show that by optimization of factors, this process can be effectively used to remove bromide from aquatic environments.
Integrated modelling in materials and process technology
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hattel, Jesper Henri
2008-01-01
Integrated modelling of entire process sequences and the subsequent in-service conditions, and multiphysics modelling of the single process steps are areas that increasingly support optimisation of manufactured parts. In the present paper, three different examples of modelling manufacturing...... processes from the viewpoint of combined materials and process modelling are presented: solidification of thin walled ductile cast iron, integrated modelling of spray forming and multiphysics modelling of friction stir welding. The fourth example describes integrated modelling applied to a failure analysis...
Baker, Valerie L; Luke, Barbara; Brown, Morton B; Alvero, Ruben; Frattarelli, John L; Usadi, Rebecca; Grainger, David A; Armstrong, Alicia Y
2010-09-01
To evaluate factors predictive of clinical pregnancy and of pregnancy loss from assisted reproductive technology (ART) using data from the Society for Assisted Reproductive Technology database for 2004-2006. Retrospective cohort. Clinic-based data. The study population included 225,889 fresh embryo transfer cycles using autologous oocytes and partner semen. None. Clinical intrauterine gestation (presence of gestational sac) and live birth (>or=22 weeks gestation and >or=300 g birth weight). Increasing maternal age was significantly associated with a reduced odds of conception and increased fetal loss until 19 weeks gestation, but not with later pregnancy loss. Intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI), assisted hatching, and increasing number of embryos transferred had significant positive effects on the odds of conception and pregnancy continuation through the first trimester, but did not affect the risk of later loss. Blacks, Asians, and Hispanics had significantly lower odds of clinical pregnancy compared with whites. Also compared with whites, Hispanics and Asians had a significantly greater risk of pregnancy loss in the second and third trimesters, and blacks had a significantly greater risk of pregnancy loss in all trimesters. Certain demographic and ART treatment parameters influenced chance of conception and early pregnancy loss, whereas black race and Hispanic ethnicity were also significantly associated with late pregnancy loss in ART-conceived pregnancies. Copyright (c) 2010 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tencate, Alister J.; Kalivas, John H.; White, Alexander J.
2016-01-01
New multivariate calibration methods and other processes are being developed that require selection of multiple tuning parameter (penalty) values to form the final model. With one or more tuning parameters, using only one measure of model quality to select final tuning parameter values is not sufficient. Optimization of several model quality measures is challenging. Thus, three fusion ranking methods are investigated for simultaneous assessment of multiple measures of model quality for selecting tuning parameter values. One is a supervised learning fusion rule named sum of ranking differences (SRD). The other two are non-supervised learning processes based on the sum and median operations. The effect of the number of models evaluated on the three fusion rules are also evaluated using three procedures. One procedure uses all models from all possible combinations of the tuning parameters. To reduce the number of models evaluated, an iterative process (only applicable to SRD) is applied and thresholding a model quality measure before applying the fusion rules is also used. A near infrared pharmaceutical data set requiring model updating is used to evaluate the three fusion rules. In this case, calibration of the primary conditions is for the active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) of tablets produced in a laboratory. The secondary conditions for calibration updating is for tablets produced in the full batch setting. Two model updating processes requiring selection of two unique tuning parameter values are studied. One is based on Tikhonov regularization (TR) and the other is a variation of partial least squares (PLS). The three fusion methods are shown to provide equivalent and acceptable results allowing automatic selection of the tuning parameter values. Best tuning parameter values are selected when model quality measures used with the fusion rules are for the small secondary sample set used to form the updated models. In this model updating situation, evaluation of
How Can Blockchain Technology Disrupt the Existing Business Models?
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Witold Nowiński
2017-09-01
Contribution & Value Added: This study provides an analysis of the possible impact of blockchain technology on business model innovation. Blockchain technology is gaining momentum with more and more diverse applications, as well as increasing numbers of actors involved in its applications. This paper contributes to our understanding of the possible applications of blockchain technology to businesses, and in particular to its impact on business models.
Review of early assessment models of innovative medical technologies
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fasterholdt, Iben; Krahn, Murray D; Kidholm, Kristian
2017-01-01
INTRODUCTION: Hospitals increasingly make decisions regarding the early development of and investment in technologies, but a formal evaluation model for assisting hospitals early on in assessing the potential of innovative medical technologies is lacking. This article provides an overview of models...... methods assessing cost-effectiveness are most prevalent in early assessment, but seems ill-suited for early assessment in hospitals. Four models provided some usable elements for the development of a hospital-based model....
Humanistic Model in Adult Education and Science and Technology ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Humanistic Model in Adult Education and Science and Technology: Challenges of the 21 st Century Developing Nation. ... Annals of Modern Education ... is the result of the scientific and technological advancement, this paper considers humanistic model in adult education as liberal education appropriate for adult age.
A model technology transfer program for independent operators
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Schoeling, L.G.
1996-08-01
In August 1992, the Energy Research Center (ERC) at the University of Kansas was awarded a contract by the US Department of Energy (DOE) to develop a technology transfer regional model. This report describes the development and testing of the Kansas Technology Transfer Model (KTTM) which is to be utilized as a regional model for the development of other technology transfer programs for independent operators throughout oil-producing regions in the US. It describes the linkage of the regional model with a proposed national technology transfer plan, an evaluation technique for improving and assessing the model, and the methodology which makes it adaptable on a regional basis. The report also describes management concepts helpful in managing a technology transfer program.
Modeling and optimization of the lifetime of technologies
Hritonenko, Natali
1996-01-01
Modern economic growth is characterized by structural changes based on the introduction of new technologies into economics. The replacement and renova tion of technologies in industrial environments undergoing technical change is clearly one of the key aspects of economic development. The mathematical modeling of evolutionary economics under technical change (TC) has been rigorously considered by many authors during last decades. There is a wide variety of economic approaches and models describing different aspects of technical change. Among these are the models of embodied technical progress [19], [35], [70], [129], endogenous growth models [94], [102], the models of technological innovations [31], [32], [41], and others. The perspective self organization evolutionary approach is developed in [20], [38], [122], [123], [124], [126], which unites the aspects of diffusion of new technologies, technological and behavioral diversity of firms, learning mechanisms, age-dependent effects, and other important fea...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hansen, Michael Adsetts Edberg
Interest in statistical methodology is increasing so rapidly in the astronomical community that accessible introductory material in this area is long overdue. This book fills the gap by providing a presentation of the most useful techniques in multivariate statistics. A wide-ranging annotated set...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
O. M. Pshinko
2016-12-01
. At this the control of separate elements is realized by the way of individual mental models construction and application of functioning processes. The procedure for evaluating of the prediction reliability based on multivariate linear extrapolation method was proposed. Practical value. The proposed method of strategic planning of the complex systems’ development based on rating models and developed information technology are representing the complex of automated tools to ensure effective economical and technological control of non-uniform sets of multiparameter objects. The new solutions of typical tasks of strategic planning and development of complex objects management procedure are implemented in the information technology of rating estimation (rating definition, sensitivity analysis, clustering, diagnostics, forecasting, resource allocation, multi-criteria analysis etc.. Application of the proposed information technology can automate the task of analysis and strategic planning of the administrative-territorial complexes. The technology can be used for monitoring, analysis, strategic planning and management of several complex system types simultaneously.
Shao, Q; Rowe, R C; York, P
2007-06-01
This study has investigated an artificial intelligence technology - model trees - as a modelling tool applied to an immediate release tablet formulation database. The modelling performance was compared with artificial neural networks that have been well established and widely applied in the pharmaceutical product formulation fields. The predictability of generated models was validated on unseen data and judged by correlation coefficient R(2). Output from the model tree analyses produced multivariate linear equations which predicted tablet tensile strength, disintegration time, and drug dissolution profiles of similar quality to neural network models. However, additional and valuable knowledge hidden in the formulation database was extracted from these equations. It is concluded that, as a transparent technology, model trees are useful tools to formulators.
Model for acquiring innovative waste immobilization technologies
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dole, L.R.; Singh, S.P.N.
1988-01-01
The US Department of Energy's (DOE's) Oak Ridge Operations (ORO) has established the Waste Management Technology Center (WMTC) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory to assist in meeting the environmental requirements for federal facilities as stated in the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) and the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA). The WMTC will bring innovative mixed chemical and radioactive waste treatment and site closure technologies to bear on the many mixed chemical and radioactive waste problems at the DOE-ORO facilities located in Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio. The WMTC seeks innovative technologies through a phased procurement cycle that encourages the teaming of emerging technologies with experienced contractors in order to comply with on-site requirements of DOE orders concerning protection of the environment. This three-phase procurement cycle includes: (1) a feasibility study and implementation plan, (2) an on-site pilot demonstration, and (3) full-scale implementation. This paper describes the statements of work for some related demonstrations and remedial actions
Empirical modeling of information communication technology usage ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
The study will play a vital role in filling up the research gap that exist in technology acceptance behaviour among business education faculties across tertiary institutions in Nigeria and the rest of Africa. Future research on the subject matter may attempt to investigate the moderating roles of voluntariness and compulsory ...
Modeling learning technology systems as business systems
Avgeriou, Paris; Retalis, Symeon; Papaspyrou, Nikolaos
2003-01-01
The design of Learning Technology Systems, and the Software Systems that support them, is largely conducted on an intuitive, ad hoc basis, thus resulting in inefficient systems that defectively support the learning process. There is now justifiable, increasing effort in formalizing the engineering
Enhanced living environments from models to technologies
Dobre, Ciprian; Ganchev, Ivan; Garcia, Nuno; Goleva, Rossitza Ivanova
2017-01-01
Enhanced living environments employ information and communications technologies to support true ambient assisted living for people with disabilities. This book provides an overview of today's architectures, techniques, protocols, components, and cloud-based solutions related to ambient assisted living and enhanced living environments.
Cost and Performance Assumptions for Modeling Electricity Generation Technologies
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Tidball, R.; Bluestein, J.; Rodriguez, N.; Knoke, S.
2010-11-01
The goal of this project was to compare and contrast utility scale power plant characteristics used in data sets that support energy market models. Characteristics include both technology cost and technology performance projections to the year 2050. Cost parameters include installed capital costs and operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Performance parameters include plant size, heat rate, capacity factor or availability factor, and plant lifetime. Conventional, renewable, and emerging electricity generating technologies were considered. Six data sets, each associated with a different model, were selected. Two of the data sets represent modeled results, not direct model inputs. These two data sets include cost and performance improvements that result from increased deployment as well as resulting capacity factors estimated from particular model runs; other data sets represent model input data. For the technologies contained in each data set, the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) was also evaluated, according to published cost, performance, and fuel assumptions.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Chauvin, Benoit, E-mail: benoit.chauvin@u-psud.fr [Univ. Paris-Sud, EA 4041, IFR 141, Faculte de Pharmacie, F-92296 Chatenay-Malabry (France); Institut Curie, UMR 176 CNRS, Centre Universitaire, Univ Paris-Sud, F-91405 Orsay (France); Kasselouri, Athena; Chaminade, Pierre; Quiameso, Rita [Univ. Paris-Sud, EA 4041, IFR 141, Faculte de Pharmacie, F-92296 Chatenay-Malabry (France); Nicolis, Ioannis [Laboratoire de Biomathematiques et Informatique, Departement de Sante publique et biostatistiques et EA 4466, Faculte de Pharmacie, Universite Paris Descartes, 4, avenue de l' Observatoire, 75270 Paris cedex 06 (France); Maillard, Philippe [Institut Curie, UMR 176 CNRS, Centre Universitaire, Univ Paris-Sud, F-91405 Orsay (France); Prognon, Patrice [Univ. Paris-Sud, EA 4041, IFR 141, Faculte de Pharmacie, F-92296 Chatenay-Malabry (France)
2011-10-31
Highlights: {yields} Diprotonation of 17 meso-tetraphenylporphyrin derivatives. {yields} MCR-ALS resolution of multi-component mixtures. {yields} Determination of stepwise protonation constants. {yields} Prediction of protonation constants from ET-State indices. - Abstract: Tetrapyrrole rings possess four nitrogen atoms, two of which act as Broendsted bases in acidic media. The two protonation steps occur on a close pH range, particularly in the case of meso-tetraphenylporphyrin (TPP) derivatives. If the cause of this phenomenon is well known - a protonation-induced distortion of the porphyrin ring - data on stepwise protonation constants and on electronic absorption spectra of monoprotonated TPPs are sparse. A multivariate approach has been systematically applied to a series of glycoconjugated and hydroxylated TPPs, potential anticancer drugs usable in Photodynamic Therapy. The dual purpose was determination of protonation constants and linking substitution with basicity. Hard-modeling version of MCR-ALS (Multivariate Curve Resolution Alternating Least Squares) has given access to spectra and distribution profile of pure components. Spectra of monoprotonated species (H{sub 3}TPP{sup +}) in solution resemble those of diprotonated species (H{sub 4}TPP{sup 2+}), mainly differing by a slight blue-shift of bands. Overlap of H{sub 3}TPP{sup +} and H{sub 4}TPP{sup 2+} spectra reinforces the difficulty to evidence an intermediate form only present in low relative abundance. Depending on macrocycle substitution, pK values ranged from 3.5 {+-} 0.1 to 5.1 {+-} 0.1 for the first protonation and from 3.2 {+-} 0.2 to 4.9 {+-} 0.1 for the second one. Inner nitrogens' basicity is affected by position, number and nature of peripheral substituents depending on their electrodonating character. pK values have been used to establish a predictive Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model, relying on atom-type electrotopological indices. This model accurately describes our results and
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Li-Ying, Jason; Wang, Yuandi; Ning, Lutao
2016-01-01
How externally acquired resources may become valuable, rare, hard-to-imitate, and non-substitute resource bundles through the development of dynamic capabilities? This study proposes and tests a mediation model of how firms’ internal technological diversification and R&D, as two distinctive...... microfoundations of dynamic technological capabilities, mediate the relationship between external technology breadth and firms’ technological innovation performance, based on the resource-based view and dynamic capability view. Using a sample of listed Chinese licensee firms, we find that firms must broadly...... explore external technologies to ignite the dynamism in internal technological diversity and in-house R&D, which play their crucial roles differently to transform and reconfigure firms’ technological resources....
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Martinsen, Thomas
2011-01-01
This paper describes a method to model the influence by global policy scenarios, particularly spillover of technology learning, on the energy service demand of the non-energy sectors of the national economy. It is exemplified by Norway. Spillover is obtained from the technology-rich global Energy Technology Perspective model operated by the International Energy Agency. It is provided to a national hybrid model where a national bottom-up Markal model carries forward spillover into a national top-down CGE model at a disaggregated demand category level. Spillover of technology learning from the global energy technology market will reduce national generation costs of energy carriers. This may in turn increase demand in the non-energy sectors of the economy because of the rebound effect. The influence of spillover on the Norwegian economy is most pronounced for the production level of industrial chemicals and for the demand for electricity for residential energy services. The influence is modest, however, because all existing electricity generating capacity is hydroelectric and thus compatible with the low emission policy scenario. In countries where most of the existing generating capacity must be replaced by nascent energy technologies or carbon captured and storage the influence on demand is expected to be more significant. - Highlights: → Spillover of global technology learning may be forwarded into a macroeconomic model. → The national electricity price differs significantly between the different global scenarios. → Soft-linking global and national models facilitate transparency in the technology learning effect chain.
Lipid Processing Technology: Building a Multilevel Modeling Network
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Díaz Tovar, Carlos Axel; Mustaffa, Azizul Azri; Mukkerikar, Amol
2011-01-01
of a master parameter table; iii) development of a model library consisting of new and adopted process models of unit operations involved in lipid processing technologies, validation of the developed models using operating data collected from existing process plants, and application of validated models......The aim of this work is to present the development of a computer aided multilevel modeling network for the systematic design and analysis of processes employing lipid technologies. This is achieved by decomposing the problem into four levels of modeling: i) pure component property modeling...... and a lipid-database of collected experimental data from industry and generated data from validated predictive property models, as well as modeling tools for fast adoption-analysis of property prediction models; ii) modeling of phase behavior of relevant lipid mixtures using the UNIFACCI model, development...
A Network Analysis Model for Selecting Sustainable Technology
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sangsung Park
2015-09-01
Full Text Available Most companies develop technologies to improve their competitiveness in the marketplace. Typically, they then patent these technologies around the world in order to protect their intellectual property. Other companies may use patented technologies to develop new products, but must pay royalties to the patent holders or owners. Should they fail to do so, this can result in legal disputes in the form of patent infringement actions between companies. To avoid such situations, companies attempt to research and develop necessary technologies before their competitors do so. An important part of this process is analyzing existing patent documents in order to identify emerging technologies. In such analyses, extracting sustainable technology from patent data is important, because sustainable technology drives technological competition among companies and, thus, the development of new technologies. In addition, selecting sustainable technologies makes it possible to plan their R&D (research and development efficiently. In this study, we propose a network model that can be used to select the sustainable technology from patent documents, based on the centrality and degree of a social network analysis. To verify the performance of the proposed model, we carry out a case study using actual patent data from patent databases.
Skopina, Maria; Protasov, Vladimir
2016-01-01
This book presents a systematic study of multivariate wavelet frames with matrix dilation, in particular, orthogonal and bi-orthogonal bases, which are a special case of frames. Further, it provides algorithmic methods for the construction of dual and tight wavelet frames with a desirable approximation order, namely compactly supported wavelet frames, which are commonly required by engineers. It particularly focuses on methods of constructing them. Wavelet bases and frames are actively used in numerous applications such as audio and graphic signal processing, compression and transmission of information. They are especially useful in image recovery from incomplete observed data due to the redundancy of frame systems. The construction of multivariate wavelet frames, especially bases, with desirable properties remains a challenging problem as although a general scheme of construction is well known, its practical implementation in the multidimensional setting is difficult. Another important feature of wavelet is ...
Multivariate calculus and geometry
Dineen, Seán
2014-01-01
Multivariate calculus can be understood best by combining geometric insight, intuitive arguments, detailed explanations and mathematical reasoning. This textbook has successfully followed this programme. It additionally provides a solid description of the basic concepts, via familiar examples, which are then tested in technically demanding situations. In this new edition the introductory chapter and two of the chapters on the geometry of surfaces have been revised. Some exercises have been replaced and others provided with expanded solutions. Familiarity with partial derivatives and a course in linear algebra are essential prerequisites for readers of this book. Multivariate Calculus and Geometry is aimed primarily at higher level undergraduates in the mathematical sciences. The inclusion of many practical examples involving problems of several variables will appeal to mathematics, science and engineering students.
Multivariate rational data fitting
Cuyt, Annie; Verdonk, Brigitte
1992-12-01
Sections 1 and 2 discuss the advantages of an object-oriented implementation combined with higher floating-point arithmetic, of the algorithms available for multivariate data fitting using rational functions. Section 1 will in particular explain what we mean by "higher arithmetic". Section 2 will concentrate on the concepts of "object orientation". In sections 3 and 4 we shall describe the generality of the data structure that can be dealt with: due to some new results virtually every data set is acceptable right now, with possible coalescence of coordinates or points. In order to solve the multivariate rational interpolation problem the data sets are fed to different algorithms depending on the structure of the interpolation points in then-variate space.
Intelligent multivariate process supervision
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Visuri, Pertti.
1986-01-01
This thesis addresses the difficulties encountered in managing large amounts of data in supervisory control of complex systems. Some previous alarm and disturbance analysis concepts are reviewed and a method for improving the supervision of complex systems is presented. The method, called multivariate supervision, is based on adding low level intelligence to the process control system. By using several measured variables linked together by means of deductive logic, the system can take into account the overall state of the supervised system. Thus, it can present to the operators fewer messages with higher information content than the conventional control systems which are based on independent processing of each variable. In addition, the multivariate method contains a special information presentation concept for improving the man-machine interface. (author)
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole; Hansen, Peter Reinhard; Lunde, Asger
We propose a multivariate realised kernel to estimate the ex-post covariation of log-prices. We show this new consistent estimator is guaranteed to be positive semi-definite and is robust to measurement noise of certain types and can also handle non-synchronous trading. It is the first estimator...... returns measured over 5 or 10 minutes intervals. We show the new estimator is substantially more precise....
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole Eiler; Hansen, Peter Reinhard; Lunde, Asger
2011-01-01
We propose a multivariate realised kernel to estimate the ex-post covariation of log-prices. We show this new consistent estimator is guaranteed to be positive semi-definite and is robust to measurement error of certain types and can also handle non-synchronous trading. It is the first estimator...... returns measured over 5 or 10 min intervals. We show that the new estimator is substantially more precise....
Understanding the impact of technology on firms’ business models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Cavalcante, Sergio Andre
2013-01-01
for innovative commercial products and/or services. Three of the consortium companies were selected for case-study research. Findings – The main findings were that companies will use the new technology to extend their existing business models, and that the technology platform potentially represents the creation...... of a new business model for the partner companies in the consortium. Practical implications – This paper is important in that it will help companies understand technological impact from a business model perspective, thereby enabling them to manage innovation better by distinguishing between the creation......, extension, revision or termination of business models. Originality/value – The main contribution of this study is its use of the business model perspective to analyse the impact of an emergent technology on companies’ innovation activities. This perspective makes it easier to develop strategic initiatives...
Simulation and Modeling Capability for Standard Modular Hydropower Technology
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Stewart, Kevin M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Smith, Brennan T. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Witt, Adam M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); DeNeale, Scott T. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Bevelhimer, Mark S. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Pries, Jason L. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Burress, Timothy A. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Kao, Shih-Chieh [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Mobley, Miles H. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Lee, Kyutae [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Curd, Shelaine L. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Tsakiris, Achilleas [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Mooneyham, Christian [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Papanicolaou, Thanos [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Ekici, Kivanc [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Whisenant, Matthew J. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Welch, Tim [US Department of Energy, Washington, DC (United States); Rabon, Daniel [US Department of Energy, Washington, DC (United States)
2017-08-01
Grounded in the stakeholder-validated framework established in Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s SMH Exemplary Design Envelope Specification, this report on Simulation and Modeling Capability for Standard Modular Hydropower (SMH) Technology provides insight into the concepts, use cases, needs, gaps, and challenges associated with modeling and simulating SMH technologies. The SMH concept envisions a network of generation, passage, and foundation modules that achieve environmentally compatible, cost-optimized hydropower using standardization and modularity. The development of standardized modeling approaches and simulation techniques for SMH (as described in this report) will pave the way for reliable, cost-effective methods for technology evaluation, optimization, and verification.
An Improved Valuation Model for Technology Companies
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ako Doffou
2015-06-01
Full Text Available This paper estimates some of the parameters of the Schwartz and Moon (2001 model using cross-sectional data. Stochastic costs, future financing, capital expenditures and depreciation are taken into account. Some special conditions are also set: the speed of adjustment parameters are equal; the implied half-life of the sales growth process is linked to analyst forecasts; and the risk-adjustment parameter is inferred from the company’s observed stock price beta. The model is illustrated in the valuation of Google, Amazon, eBay, Facebook and Yahoo. The improved model is far superior to the Schwartz and Moon (2001 model.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Callen, M.S.; Lopez, J.M.; Mastral, A.M.
2010-01-01
The estimation of benzo(a)pyrene (BaP) concentrations in ambient air is very important from an environmental point of view especially with the introduction of the Directive 2004/107/EC and due to the carcinogenic character of this pollutant. A sampling campaign of particulate matter less or equal than 10 microns (PM10) carried out during 2008-2009 in four locations of Spain was collected to determine experimentally BaP concentrations by gas chromatography mass-spectrometry mass-spectrometry (GC-MS-MS). Multivariate linear regression models (MLRM) were used to predict BaP air concentrations in two sampling places, taking PM10 and meteorological variables as possible predictors. The model obtained with data from two sampling sites (all sites model) (R 2 = 0.817, PRESS/SSY = 0.183) included the significant variables like PM10, temperature, solar radiation and wind speed and was internally and externally validated. The first validation was performed by cross validation and the last one by BaP concentrations from previous campaigns carried out in Zaragoza from 2001-2004. The proposed model constitutes a first approximation to estimate BaP concentrations in urban atmospheres with very good internal prediction (Q CV 2 =0.813, PRESS/SSY = 0.187) and with the maximal external prediction for the 2001-2002 campaign (Q ext 2 =0.679 and PRESS/SSY = 0.321) versus the 2001-2004 campaign (Q ext 2 =0.551, PRESS/SSY = 0.449).
Callén, M S; López, J M; Mastral, A M
2010-08-15
The estimation of benzo(a)pyrene (BaP) concentrations in ambient air is very important from an environmental point of view especially with the introduction of the Directive 2004/107/EC and due to the carcinogenic character of this pollutant. A sampling campaign of particulate matter less or equal than 10 microns (PM10) carried out during 2008-2009 in four locations of Spain was collected to determine experimentally BaP concentrations by gas chromatography mass-spectrometry mass-spectrometry (GC-MS-MS). Multivariate linear regression models (MLRM) were used to predict BaP air concentrations in two sampling places, taking PM10 and meteorological variables as possible predictors. The model obtained with data from two sampling sites (all sites model) (R(2)=0.817, PRESS/SSY=0.183) included the significant variables like PM10, temperature, solar radiation and wind speed and was internally and externally validated. The first validation was performed by cross validation and the last one by BaP concentrations from previous campaigns carried out in Zaragoza from 2001-2004. The proposed model constitutes a first approximation to estimate BaP concentrations in urban atmospheres with very good internal prediction (Q(CV)(2)=0.813, PRESS/SSY=0.187) and with the maximal external prediction for the 2001-2002 campaign (Q(ext)(2)=0.679 and PRESS/SSY=0.321) versus the 2001-2004 campaign (Q(ext)(2)=0.551, PRESS/SSY=0.449). Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Business Cycle Models with Embodied Technological Change and Poisson Shocks
Schlegel, Christoph
2004-01-01
The first part analyzes an Endogenous Business Cycle model with embodied technological change. Households take an optimal decision about their spending for consumption and financing of R&D. The probability of a technology invention occurring is an increasing function of aggregate R&D expenditure in the whole economy. New technologies bring higher productivity, but rather than applying to the whole capital stock, they require a new vintage of capital, which first has to be accu...
Modelling architectures in multi-product oriented technology development
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Guðlaugsson, Tómas Vignir
This thesis investigates the use of architecture modelling in a technology development context.This context presents greater uncertainties than more mature new product development. Applications—the use of products based on the technology being developed—are not fully identified and the requiremen...... frameworks in a technology development projectare presented, along with descriptive results on the context of technology development gained through active participation in the case project.......This thesis investigates the use of architecture modelling in a technology development context.This context presents greater uncertainties than more mature new product development. Applications—the use of products based on the technology being developed—are not fully identified and the requirements...... to be fulfilled are not completely defined.The products to be based on the technology are yet to be developed as the foundation for their development will be developed during the technology development. Furthermore, the production of a new technology is not defined as both the technology and derivative products...
Modelling assistive technology adoption for people with dementia.
Chaurasia, Priyanka; McClean, Sally I; Nugent, Chris D; Cleland, Ian; Zhang, Shuai; Donnelly, Mark P; Scotney, Bryan W; Sanders, Chelsea; Smith, Ken; Norton, Maria C; Tschanz, JoAnn
2016-10-01
Assistive technologies have been identified as a potential solution for the provision of elderly care. Such technologies have in general the capacity to enhance the quality of life and increase the level of independence among their users. Nevertheless, the acceptance of these technologies is crucial to their success. Generally speaking, the elderly are not well-disposed to technologies and have limited experience; these factors contribute towards limiting the widespread acceptance of technology. It is therefore important to evaluate the potential success of technologies prior to their deployment. The research described in this paper builds upon our previous work on modelling adoption of assistive technology, in the form of cognitive prosthetics such as reminder apps and aims at identifying a refined sub-set of features which offer improved accuracy in predicting technology adoption. Consequently, in this paper, an adoption model is built using a set of features extracted from a user's background to minimise the likelihood of non-adoption. The work is based on analysis of data from the Cache County Study on Memory and Aging (CCSMA) with 31 features covering a range of age, gender, education and details of health condition. In the process of modelling adoption, feature selection and feature reduction is carried out followed by identifying the best classification models. With the reduced set of labelled features the technology adoption model built achieved an average prediction accuracy of 92.48% when tested on 173 participants. We conclude that modelling user adoption from a range of parameters such as physical, environmental and social perspectives is beneficial in recommending a technology to a particular user based on their profile. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
TECHNOLOGICAL PROCESS MODELING AIMING TO IMPROVE ITS OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ivan Mihajlović
2011-11-01
Full Text Available This paper presents the modeling procedure of one real technological system. In this study, thecopper extraction from the copper flotation waste generated at the Bor Copper Mine (Serbia, werethe object of modeling. Sufficient data base for statistical modeling was constructed using theorthogonal factorial design of the experiments. Mathematical model of investigated system wasdeveloped using the combination of linear and multiple linear statistical analysis approach. Thepurpose of such a model is obtaining optimal states of the system that enable efficient operationsmanagement. Besides technological and economical, ecological parameters of the process wereconsidered as crucial input variables.
Simulating multivariate time series using flocking
Schruben, Lee W.; Singham, Dashi I.
2010-01-01
Refereed Conference Paper Notions from agent based modeling (ABM) can be used to simulate multivariate time series. An example is given using the ABM concept of flocking, which models the behaviors of birds (called boids) in a flock. A multivariate time series is mapped into the coordinates of a bounded orthotope. This represents the flight path of a boid. Other boids are generated that flock around this data boid. The coordinates of these new boids are mapped back to simulate replicates o...
Competence Models in Technology-enhanced Competence-based Learning
Sampson, Demetrios; Fytros, Demetrios
2008-01-01
Please cite as: Sampson, D., & Fytros, D. (2008). Competence Models in Technology-enhanced Competence-based Learning. In H. H. Adelsberger, Kinshuk, J. M. Pawlowski & D. Sampson (Eds.), International Handbook on Information Technologies for Education and Training, 2nd Edition, Springer, June 2008
Optimizing technology investments: a broad mission model approach
Shishko, R.
2003-01-01
A long-standing problem in NASA is how to allocate scarce technology development resources across advanced technologies in order to best support a large set of future potential missions. Within NASA, two orthogonal paradigms have received attention in recent years: the real-options approach and the broad mission model approach. This paper focuses on the latter.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
De Pedro, Emiliano
2009-07-01
Full Text Available Multivariate Classification models to classify real farm conditions Iberian pigs, according to the feeding regime were developed by using fatty acids composition or NIR spectral data of liquid fat samples. A total of 121 subcutaneous fat samples were taken from Iberian pigs carcasses belonging to 5 batches reared under different feeding systems. Once the liquid sample was extracted from each subcutaneous fat sample, it was determined the percentage of 11 fatty acids (C14:0, C16:0, C16:1, C17:0, C17:1, C18:0, C18:1, C18:2, C18:3, C20:0 and C20:1. At the same time, Near Infrared (NIR spectrum of each liquid sample was obtained. Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA was considered as pattern recognition method to develop the multivariate models. Classification errors of the LDA models generated by using NIR spectral data were 0.0% and 1.7% for the model generated by using fatty acids composition. Results confirm the possibility to discriminate Iberian pig liquid samples from animals reared under different feeding regimes on real farm conditions by using NIR spectral data or fatty acids composition. Classification error obtained using models generated from NIR spectral data were lower than those obtained in models based on fatty acids composition.Se han desarrollado modelos multivariantes, generados a partir de la composición en ácidos grasos o datos espectrales NIR, para clasificar según el régimen alimenticio cerdos Ibéricos producidos bajo condiciones no experimentales. Se han empleado 121 muestras de grasa líquida procedentes de grasa subcutánea de canales de cerdos Ibéricos pertenecientes a 5 partidas con regímenes alimenticios diferentes. A dichas muestras líquidas se les determinó el contenido en 11 ácidos grasos (C14:0, C16:0, C16:1, C17:0, C17:1, C18:0, C18:1, C18:2, C18:3, C20:0 and C20:1 y se obtuvo su espectro NIR. Los modelos de clasificación multivariantes se desarrollaron mediante Análisis Discriminante Lineal. Dichos
Risk Management Technologies With Logic and Probabilistic Models
Solozhentsev, E D
2012-01-01
This book presents intellectual, innovative, information technologies (I3-technologies) based on logical and probabilistic (LP) risk models. The technologies presented here consider such models for structurally complex systems and processes with logical links and with random events in economics and technology. The volume describes the following components of risk management technologies: LP-calculus; classes of LP-models of risk and efficiency; procedures for different classes; special software for different classes; examples of applications; methods for the estimation of probabilities of events based on expert information. Also described are a variety of training courses in these topics. The classes of risk models treated here are: LP-modeling, LP-classification, LP-efficiency, and LP-forecasting. Particular attention is paid to LP-models of risk of failure to resolve difficult economic and technical problems. Amongst the discussed procedures of I3-technologies are the construction of LP-models,...
A DYNAMICAL SYSTEM APPROACH IN MODELING TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hennie Husniah
2016-05-01
Full Text Available In this paper we discuss a mathematical model of two parties technology transfer from a leader to a follower. The model is reconstructed via dynamical system approach from a known standard Raz and Assa model and we found some important conclusion which have not been discussed in the original model. The model assumes that in the absence of technology transfer from a leader to a follower, both the leader and the follower have a capability to grow independently with a known upper limit of the development. We obtain a rich mathematical structure of the steady state solution of the model. We discuss a special situation in which the upper limit of the technological development of the follower is higher than that of the leader, but the leader has started earlier than the follower in implementing the technology. In this case we show a paradox stating that the follower is unable to reach its original upper limit of the technological development could appear whenever the transfer rate is sufficiently high. We propose a new model to increase realism so that any technological transfer rate could only has a positive effect in accelerating the rate of growth of the follower in reaching its original upper limit of the development.
Zhang, Jing; Liang, Lichen; Anderson, Jon R; Gatewood, Lael; Rottenberg, David A; Strother, Stephen C
2008-01-01
As functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) becomes widely used, the demands for evaluation of fMRI processing pipelines and validation of fMRI analysis results is increasing rapidly. The current NPAIRS package, an IDL-based fMRI processing pipeline evaluation framework, lacks system interoperability and the ability to evaluate general linear model (GLM)-based pipelines using prediction metrics. Thus, it can not fully evaluate fMRI analytical software modules such as FSL.FEAT and NPAIRS.GLM. In order to overcome these limitations, a Java-based fMRI processing pipeline evaluation system was developed. It integrated YALE (a machine learning environment) into Fiswidgets (a fMRI software environment) to obtain system interoperability and applied an algorithm to measure GLM prediction accuracy. The results demonstrated that the system can evaluate fMRI processing pipelines with univariate GLM and multivariate canonical variates analysis (CVA)-based models on real fMRI data based on prediction accuracy (classification accuracy) and statistical parametric image (SPI) reproducibility. In addition, a preliminary study was performed where four fMRI processing pipelines with GLM and CVA modules such as FSL.FEAT and NPAIRS.CVA were evaluated with the system. The results indicated that (1) the system can compare different fMRI processing pipelines with heterogeneous models (NPAIRS.GLM, NPAIRS.CVA and FSL.FEAT) and rank their performance by automatic performance scoring, and (2) the rank of pipeline performance is highly dependent on the preprocessing operations. These results suggest that the system will be of value for the comparison, validation, standardization and optimization of functional neuroimaging software packages and fMRI processing pipelines.
Lipid Processing Technology: Building a Multilevel Modeling Network
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Díaz Tovar, Carlos Axel; Mustaffa, Azizul Azri; Mukkerikar, Amol
2011-01-01
The aim of this work is to present the development of a computer aided multilevel modeling network for the systematic design and analysis of processes employing lipid technologies. This is achieved by decomposing the problem into four levels of modeling: i) pure component property modeling...
Plasma Modeling Enabled Technology Development Empowered by Fundamental Scattering Data
Kushner, Mark J.
2016-05-01
Technology development increasingly relies on modeling to speed the innovation cycle. This is particularly true for systems using low temperature plasmas (LTPs) and their role in enabling energy efficient processes with minimal environmental impact. In the innovation cycle, LTP modeling supports investigation of fundamental processes that seed the cycle, optimization of newly developed technologies, and prediction of performance of unbuilt systems for new applications. Although proof-of-principle modeling may be performed for idealized systems in simple gases, technology development must address physically complex systems that use complex gas mixtures that now may be multi-phase (e.g., in contact with liquids). The variety of fundamental electron and ion scattering, and radiation transport data (FSRD) required for this modeling increases as the innovation cycle progresses, while the accuracy required of that data depends on the intended outcome. In all cases, the fidelity, depth and impact of the modeling depends on the availability of FSRD. Modeling and technology development are, in fact, empowered by the availability and robustness of FSRD. In this talk, examples of the impact of and requirements for FSRD in the innovation cycle enabled by plasma modeling will be discussed using results from multidimensional and global models. Examples of fundamental studies and technology optimization will focus on microelectronics fabrication and on optically pumped lasers. Modeling of systems as yet unbuilt will address the interaction of atmospheric pressure plasmas with liquids. Work supported by DOE Office of Fusion Energy Science and the National Science Foundation.
Study on modeling technology in digital reactor system
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Liu Xiaoping; Luo Yuetong; Tong Lili
2004-01-01
Modeling is the kernel part of a digital reactor system. As an extensible platform for reactor conceptual design, it is very important to study modeling technology and develop some kind of tools to speed up preparation of all classical computing models. This paper introduces the background of the project and basic conception of digital reactor. MCAM is taken as an example for modeling and its related technologies used are given. It is an interface program for MCNP geometry model developed by FDS team (ASIPP and HUT), and designed to run on windows system. MCAM aims at utilizing CAD technology to facilitate creation of MCNP geometry model. There have been two ways for MCAM to utilize CAD technology: (1) Making use of user interface technology in aid of generation of MCNP geometry model; (2) Making use of existing 3D CAD model to accelerate creation of MCNP geometry model. This paper gives an overview of MCAM's major function. At last, several examples are given to demonstrate MCAM's various capabilities. (authors)
Mathematical modeling courses for Media technology students
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Timcenko, Olga
2009-01-01
This paper addresses curriculum development for Mathematical Modeling course at Medialogy education. Medialogy as a study line was established in 2002 at Faculty for Engineering and Natural Sciences at Aalborg University, and mathematics curriculum has already been revised three times, Mathematic...... Modeling on 6th semester being the latest addition. Some of the reasoning behind curriculum development, lessons learned and remaining issues are presented and discussed. ...
Polymer Matrix Composites using Fused Deposition Modeling Technology Project
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Fused deposition modeling (FDM) is an additive manufacturing technology that allows fabrication of complex three-dimensional geometries layer-by-layer. The goal of...
A Technology-based Model for Learning
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Michael Williams
2004-12-01
Full Text Available The Math Emporium, opened in 1997, is an open 7000-squaremeter facility with 550+ workstations arranged in an array of widely spaced hexagonal "pods", designed to support group work at the same time maintaining an academic air. We operate it 24/7 with math support personnel in attendance 12 hours per day. Students have access to online course resources at all times, from anywhere. We have used this unique asset to transform traditional classroom-based courses into technology based learning programs that have no class meetings at all. The structure of the program is very different from the conventional one, having a new set of expectations and motivations. The results include: more effective students, substantial cost savings, economies of scale and scope and a stream-lined process for creating new on-line courses.
Technology Model of Aquaculture Production System
Hor, K. W.; Salleh, S. M.; Abdullah; Ezree, Mohd; Zaman, I.; Hatta, M. H.; Ahmad, S.; Ismail, A. E.; Mahmud, W. A. W.
2017-10-01
The high market demand has led to the rapid growth in fish farming. The young generation are inexperienced in determining the estimated results of fish farming and the preparation of fish pond during the period of fish farming. These need a complete guide as their reference which includes the knowledge of fish farming. The main objective of this project is to develop a practical design of real pond appropriate with aquaculture technology and fish farming production. There are three parts of study in this project which include fish farming cage, growth of fish and water quality of fish farming pond. Few of experiments were carried out involved the collection data in terms of growth of fish and parameters of water quality.
Numerical modeling in photonic crystals integrated technology: the COPERNICUS Project
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Malaguti, Stefania; Armaroli, Andrea; Bellanca, Gaetano
2011-01-01
Photonic crystals will play a fundamental role in the future of optical communications. The relevance of the numerical modeling for the success of this technology is assessed by using some examples concerning the experience of the COPERNICUS Project.......Photonic crystals will play a fundamental role in the future of optical communications. The relevance of the numerical modeling for the success of this technology is assessed by using some examples concerning the experience of the COPERNICUS Project....
ASSESSING INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE ON INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION: A NEW MODEL
Diah Hari Suryaningrum
2012-01-01
This paper aims to propose a new model in assessing individual performance on information technology adoption. The new model to assess individual performance was derived from two different theories: decomposed theory of planned behavior and task-technology fit theory. Although many researchers have tried to expand these theories, some of their efforts might lack of theoretical assumptions. To overcome this problem and enhance the coherence of the integration, I used a theory from social scien...
Shi, Wenwu; Pinto, Brian
2017-12-01
Melting and holding molten metals within crucibles accounts for a large portion of total energy demand in the resource-intensive nonferrous foundry industry. Multivariate mathematical modeling aided by detailed material characterization and advancements in crucible technologies can make a significant impact in the areas of cost-efficiency and carbon footprint reduction. Key thermal properties such as conductivity and specific heat capacity were studied to understand their influence on crucible furnace energy consumption during melting and holding processes. The effects of conductivity on thermal stresses and longevity of crucibles were also evaluated. With this information, accurate theoretical models using finite element analysis were developed to study total energy consumption and melting time. By applying these findings to recent crucible developments, considerable improvements in field performance were reported and documented as case studies in applications such as aluminum melting and holding.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xiaomi Wang
2017-02-01
Full Text Available The visible and near-infrared (VNIR spectroscopy prediction model is an effective tool for the prediction of soil organic matter (SOM content. The predictive accuracy of the VNIR model is highly dependent on the selection of the calibration set. However, conventional methods for selecting the calibration set for constructing the VNIR prediction model merely consider either the gradients of SOM or the soil VNIR spectra and neglect the influence of environmental variables. However, soil samples generally present a strong spatial variability, and, thus, the relationship between the SOM content and VNIR spectra may vary with respect to locations and surrounding environments. Hence, VNIR prediction models based on conventional calibration set selection methods would be biased, especially for estimating highly spatially variable soil content (e.g., SOM. To equip the calibration set selection method with the ability to consider SOM spatial variation and environmental influence, this paper proposes an improved method for selecting the calibration set. The proposed method combines the improved multi-variable association relationship clustering mining (MVARC method and the Rank–Kennard–Stone (Rank-KS method in order to synthetically consider the SOM gradient, spectral information, and environmental variables. In the proposed MVARC-R-KS method, MVARC integrates the Apriori algorithm, a density-based clustering algorithm, and the Delaunay triangulation. The MVARC method is first utilized to adaptively mine clustering distribution zones in which environmental variables exert a similar influence on soil samples. The feasibility of the MVARC method is proven by conducting an experiment on a simulated dataset. The calibration set is evenly selected from the clustering zones and the remaining zone by using the Rank-KS algorithm in order to avoid a single property in the selected calibration set. The proposed MVARC-R-KS approach is applied to select a
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Daniel M. Caceres
2015-04-01
Full Text Available The paper analyses the main characteristics of the technological model fostered by agribusiness in Argentina, discusses its main problems and highlights the need to analyze it within a broader economic and political context. This technology is described as a technological fix and three main attributes are presented: instantaneity, transitoriness, and recurrence. The supposed efficiency of the productive model fostered by agribusiness occurs at the expense of natural capital depletion and at the costs internalized by other social actors. This is happening either via accumulation by dispossession, or through the socialization and temporal deferment of its negative externalities. Its strength largely transcends the technological domains. To bring this model into question would imply not only to object its visible head (i.e., agribusiness, but also to question the institutions (scientific, educative, juridical, and administrative and the political structures that support it. Finally, the paper discusses some alternatives and suggests to develop a political agronomy for Latin America.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Crawfis, R.A.
1996-03-01
This paper presents a new technique for representing multivalued data sets defined on an integer lattice. It extends the state-of-the-art in volume rendering to include nonhomogeneous volume representations. That is, volume rendering of materials with very fine detail (e.g. translucent granite) within a voxel. Multivariate volume rendering is achieved by introducing controlled amounts of noise within the volume representation. Varying the local amount of noise within the volume is used to represent a separate scalar variable. The technique can also be used in image synthesis to create more realistic clouds and fog.
Likelihood estimators for multivariate extremes
Huser, Raphaël
2015-11-17
The main approach to inference for multivariate extremes consists in approximating the joint upper tail of the observations by a parametric family arising in the limit for extreme events. The latter may be expressed in terms of componentwise maxima, high threshold exceedances or point processes, yielding different but related asymptotic characterizations and estimators. The present paper clarifies the connections between the main likelihood estimators, and assesses their practical performance. We investigate their ability to estimate the extremal dependence structure and to predict future extremes, using exact calculations and simulation, in the case of the logistic model.
Acoustic multivariate condition monitoring - AMCM
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Rosenhave, P.E. [Vestfold College, Maritime Dept., Toensberg (Norway)
1997-12-31
In Norway, Vestfold College, Maritime Department presents new opportunities for non-invasive, on- or off-line acoustic monitoring of rotating machinery such as off-shore pumps and diesel engines. New developments within acoustic sensor technology coupled with chemometric data analysis of complex signals now allow condition monitoring of hitherto unavailable flexibility and diagnostic specificity. Chemometrics paired with existing knowledge yields a new and powerful tool for condition monitoring. By the use of multivariate techniques and acoustics it is possible to quantify wear and tear as well as predict the performance of working components in complex machinery. This presentation describes the AMCM method and one result of a feasibility study conducted onboard the LPG/C `Norgas Mariner` owned by Norwegian Gas Carriers as (NGC), Oslo. (orig.) 6 refs.