WorldWideScience

Sample records for technology maturity forecasting

  1. Maturity in technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Alberts

    1988-03-01

    Full Text Available The concept is developed that modern technology, because of its relationship with pure science, can never really become mature, but will always grow as the pool of scientific knowledge grows. Parameters indicating to some extent the degree of technological prowess in a society are compared for a spectrum of countries. It is clear that in spite of some internationally outstanding successes. South Africa must be regarded on average as a developing society.

  2. Forecasting and management of technology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Roper, A. T

    2011-01-01

    .... The scope of this edition has broadened to include management of technology content that is relevant to now to executives in organizations while updating and strengthening the technology forecasting...

  3. A Delphi forecast of technology in education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, B. E.

    1973-01-01

    The results are reported of a Delphi forecast of the utilization and social impacts of large-scale educational telecommunications technology. The focus is on both forecasting methodology and educational technology. The various methods of forecasting used by futurists are analyzed from the perspective of the most appropriate method for a prognosticator of educational technology, and review and critical analysis are presented of previous forecasts and studies. Graphic responses, summarized comments, and a scenario of education in 1990 are presented.

  4. Hydrocarbon Rocket Technology Impact Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuber, Eric; Prasadh, Nishant; Edwards, Stephen; Mavris, Dimitri N.

    2012-01-01

    Ever since the Apollo program ended, the development of launch propulsion systems in the US has fallen drastically, with only two new booster engine developments, the SSME and the RS-68, occurring in the past few decades.1 In recent years, however, there has been an increased interest in pursuing more effective launch propulsion technologies in the U.S., exemplified by the NASA Office of the Chief Technologist s inclusion of Launch Propulsion Systems as the first technological area in the Space Technology Roadmaps2. One area of particular interest to both government agencies and commercial entities has been the development of hydrocarbon engines; NASA and the Air Force Research Lab3 have expressed interest in the use of hydrocarbon fuels for their respective SLS Booster and Reusable Booster System concepts, and two major commercially-developed launch vehicles SpaceX s Falcon 9 and Orbital Sciences Antares feature engines that use RP-1 kerosene fuel. Compared to engines powered by liquid hydrogen, hydrocarbon-fueled engines have a greater propellant density (usually resulting in a lighter overall engine), produce greater propulsive force, possess easier fuel handling and loading, and for reusable vehicle concepts can provide a shorter turnaround time between launches. These benefits suggest that a hydrocarbon-fueled launch vehicle would allow for a cheap and frequent means of access to space.1 However, the time and money required for the development of a new engine still presents a major challenge. Long and costly design, development, testing and evaluation (DDT&E) programs underscore the importance of identifying critical technologies and prioritizing investment efforts. Trade studies must be performed on engine concepts examining the affordability, operability, and reliability of each concept, and quantifying the impacts of proposed technologies. These studies can be performed through use of the Technology Impact Forecasting (TIF) method. The Technology Impact

  5. Commercial Space with Technology Maturation

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCleskey, Carey M.; Rhodes, Russell E.; Robinson, John W.

    2013-01-01

    To provide affordable space transportation we must be capable of using common fixed assets and the infrastructure for multiple purposes simultaneously. The Space Shuttle was operated for thirty years, but was not able to establish an effective continuous improvement program because of the high risk to the crew on every mission. An unmanned capability is needed to provide an acceptable risk to the primary mission. This paper is intended to present a case where a commercial space venture could share the large fixed cost of operating the infrastructure with the government while the government provides new advanced technology that is focused on reduced operating cost to the common launch transportation system. A conceivable commercial space venture could provide educational entertainment for the country's youth that would stimulate their interest in the science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) through access at entertainment parks or the existing Space Visitor Centers. The paper uses this example to demonstrate how growing public-private space market demand will re-orient space transportation industry priorities in flight and ground system design and technology development, and how the infrastructure is used and shared.

  6. Computer technology forecasting at the National Laboratories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peskin, A.M.

    1980-01-01

    The DOE Office of ADP Management organized a group of scientists and computer professionals, mostly from their own national laboratories, to prepare an annually updated technology forecast to accompany the Department's five-year ADP Plan. The activities of the task force were originally reported in an informal presentation made at the ACM Conference in 1978. This presentation represents an update of that report. It also deals with the process of applying the results obtained at a particular computing center, Brookhaven National Laboratory. Computer technology forecasting is a difficult and hazardous endeavor, but it can reap considerable advantage. The forecast performed on an industry-wide basis can be applied to the particular needs of a given installation, and thus give installation managers considerable guidance in planning. A beneficial side effect of this process is that it forces installation managers, who might otherwise tend to preoccupy themselves with immediate problems, to focus on longer term goals and means to their ends

  7. Forecasting methods for computer technology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Worlton, W.J.

    1978-01-01

    How well the computer site manager avoids future dangers and takes advantage of future opportunities depends to a considerable degree on how much anticipatory information he has available. People who rise in management are expected with each successive promotion to concern themselves with events further in the future. It is the function of technology projection to increase this stock of information about possible future developments in order to put planning and decision making on a more rational basis. Past efforts at computer technology projections have an accuracy that declines exponentially with time. Thus, precisely defined technology projections beyond about three years should be used with considerable caution. This paper reviews both subjective and objective methods of technology projection and gives examples of each. For an integrated view of future prospects in computer technology, a framework for technology projection is proposed.

  8. Modeling timelines for translational science in cancer; the impact of technological maturation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura M McNamee

    Full Text Available This work examines translational science in cancer based on theories of innovation that posit a relationship between the maturation of technologies and their capacity to generate successful products. We examined the growth of technologies associated with 138 anticancer drugs using an analytical model that identifies the point of initiation of exponential growth and the point at which growth slows as the technology becomes established. Approval of targeted and biological products corresponded with technological maturation, with first approval averaging 14 years after the established point and 44 years after initiation of associated technologies. The lag in cancer drug approvals after the increases in cancer funding and dramatic scientific advances of the 1970s thus reflects predictable timelines of technology maturation. Analytical models of technological maturation may be used for technological forecasting to guide more efficient translation of scientific discoveries into cures.

  9. Forecasting and management of technology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Roper, A. T

    2011-01-01

    ... what the authors see as the innovations to technology management in the last 17 years: the Internet; the greater focus on group decision-making including process management and mechanism design; and desktop software that has transformed the analytical capabilities of technology managers"--Provided by publisher.

  10. Forecasting Technological Discontinuities in the ICT Industry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoisl, Karin; Stelzer, Tobias; Biala, Stefanie

    2015-01-01

    in the ICT industry. The conjoint approach allows for a simulation of the forecasting process and considers utility trade-offs. The results show that for both types of experts the perceived benefit of users most highly contributes to predicting technological discontinuities. Internal experts assign more...

  11. Forecasting and management of technology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Roper, A. T

    2011-01-01

    "The new, revised edition of this book will build on this knowledge in the context of business organizations that now place a greater emphasis on technology to stay on the cutting edge of development...

  12. Maturing Technologies for Stirling Space Power Generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Scott D.; Nowlin, Brentley C.; Dobbs, Michael W.; Schmitz, Paul C.; Huth, James

    2016-01-01

    Stirling Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS) are being developed as an option to provide power on future space science missions where robotic spacecraft will orbit, flyby, land or rove. A Stirling Radioisotope Generator (SRG) could offer space missions a more efficient power system that uses one fourth of the nuclear fuel and decreases the thermal footprint of the current state of the art. The RPS Program Office, working in collaboration with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), manages projects to develop thermoelectric and dynamic power systems, including Stirling Radioisotope Generators (SRGs). The Stirling Cycle Technology Development (SCTD) Project, located at Glenn Research Center (GRC), is developing Stirling-based subsystems, including convertors and controllers. The SCTD Project also performs research that focuses on a wide variety of objectives, including increasing convertor temperature capability to enable new environments, improving system reliability or fault tolerance, reducing mass or size, and developing advanced concepts that are mission enabling. Research activity includes maturing subsystems, assemblies, and components to prepare them for infusion into future convertor and generator designs. The status of several technology development efforts are described here. As part of the maturation process, technologies are assessed for readiness in higher-level subsystems. To assess the readiness level of the Dual Convertor Controller (DCC), a Technology Readiness Assessment (TRA) was performed and the process and results are shown. Stirling technology research is being performed by the SCTD Project for NASA's RPS Program Office, where tasks focus on maturation of Stirling-based systems and subsystems for future space science missions.

  13. A Maturity Analysis of Big Data Technologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radu BONCEA

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In recent years Big Data technologies have been developed at faster pace due to increase in demand from applications that generate and process vast amount of data. The Cloud Computing and the Internet of Things are the main drivers for developing enterprise solutions that support Business Intelligence which in turn, creates new opportunities and new business models. An enterprise can now collect data about its internal processes, process this data to gain new insights and business value and make better decisions. And this is the reason why Big Data is now seen as a vital component in any enterprise architecture. In this article the maturity of several Big Data technologies is put under analysis. For each technology there are several aspects considered, such as development status, market usage, licensing policies, availability for certifications, adoption, support for cloud computing and enterprise.

  14. Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC) Technology Maturation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Wayne A.; Wilson, Scott; Collins, Josh; Wilson, Kyle

    2016-01-01

    The Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC) development effort was initiated by NASA Glenn Research Center with contractor Sunpower, Inc., to develop high-efficiency thermal-to-electric power conversion technology for NASA Radioisotope Power Systems (RPSs). Early successful performance demonstrations led to the expansion of the project as well as adoption of the technology by the Department of Energy (DOE) and system integration contractor Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company as part of the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) flight project. The ASRG integrates a pair of ASCs to convert the heat from a pair of General Purpose Heat Source (GPHS) modules into electrical power. The expanded NASA ASC effort included development of several generations of ASC prototypes or engineering units to help prepare the ASC technology and Sunpower for flight implementation. Sunpower later had two parallel contracts allowing the last of the NASA engineering units called ASC-E3 to serve as pathfinders for the ASC-F flight convertors being built for DOE. The ASC-E3 convertors utilized the ASC-F flight specifications and were built using the ASC-F design and process documentation. Shortly after the first ASC-F pair achieved initial operation, due to budget constraints, the DOE ASRG flight development contract was terminated. NASA continues to invest in the development of Stirling RPS technology including continued production of the ASC-E3 convertors, seven of which have been delivered with one additional unit in production. Starting in fiscal year 2015, Stirling Convertor Technology Maturation has been reorganized as an element of the RPS Stirling Cycle Technology Development (SCTD) Project and long-term plans for continued Stirling technology advancement are in reformulation. This paper provides a status on the ASC project, an overview of advancements made in the design and production of the ASC at Sunpower, and a summary of acceptance tests, reliability tests, and tactical

  15. SET-MM – A Software Evaluation Technology Maturity Model

    OpenAIRE

    García-Castro, Raúl

    2011-01-01

    The application of software evaluation technologies in different research fields to verify and validate research is a key factor in the progressive evolution of those fields. Nowadays, however, to have a clear picture of the maturity of the technologies used in evaluations or to know which steps to follow in order to improve the maturity of such technologies is not easy. This paper describes a Software Evaluation Technology Maturity Model that can be used to assess software evaluation tech...

  16. Forecasting the impact of virtual environment technology on maintenance training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlager, Mark S.; Boman, Duane; Piantanida, Tom; Stephenson, Robert

    1993-01-01

    To assist NASA and the Air Force in determining how and when to invest in virtual environment (VE) technology for maintenance training, we identified possible roles for VE technology in such training, assessed its cost-effectiveness relative to existing technologies, and formulated recommendations for a research agenda that would address instructional and system development issues involved in fielding a VE training system. In the first phase of the study, we surveyed VE developers to forecast capabilities, maturity, and estimated costs for VE component technologies. We then identified maintenance tasks and their training costs through interviews with maintenance technicians, instructors, and training developers. Ten candidate tasks were selected from two classes of maintenance tasks (seven aircraft maintenance and three space maintenance) using five criteria developed to identify types of tasks most likely to benefit from VE training. Three tasks were used as specific cases for cost-benefit analysis. In formulating research recommendations, we considered three aspects of feasibility: technological considerations, cost-effectiveness, and anticipated R&D efforts. In this paper, we describe the major findings in each of these areas and suggest research efforts that we believe will help achieve the goal of a cost-effective VE maintenance training system by the next decade.

  17. As Technologies for Nucleotide Therapeutics Mature, Products Emerge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beierlein, Jennifer M; McNamee, Laura M; Ledley, Fred D

    2017-12-15

    The long path from initial research on oligonucleotide therapies to approval of antisense products is not unfamiliar. This lag resembles those encountered with monoclonal antibodies, gene therapies, and many biological targets and is consistent with studies of innovation showing that technology maturation is a critical determinant of product success. We previously described an analytical model for the maturation of biomedical research, demonstrating that the efficiency of targeted and biological development is connected to metrics of technology growth. The present work applies this model to characterize the advance of oligonucleotide therapeutics. We show that recent oligonucleotide product approvals incorporate technologies and targets that are past the established point of technology growth, as do most of the oligonucleotide products currently in phase 3. Less mature oligonucleotide technologies, such as miRNAs and some novel gene targets, have not passed the established point and have not yielded products. This analysis shows that oligonucleotide product development has followed largely predictable patterns of innovation. While technology maturation alone does not ensure success, these data show that many oligonucleotide technologies are sufficiently mature to be considered part of the arsenal for therapeutic development. These results demonstrate the importance of technology assessment in strategic management of biomedical technologies. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Maturity and Performance in Information Technology Project Management

    OpenAIRE

    Renato de Oliveira Moraes; Fernando José Barbin Laurindo

    2013-01-01

    This study concerns the relationship between the information technology (IT) project performance and the project management maturity of an organization. The research was developed from a survey of 185 respondents during 2010. Project performance was evaluated using the two first dimensions proposed by Shenhar et al (2001) – project efficiency and impact on the customer. Project management maturity was evaluated using the formalization level of project management processes described in PMBoK. ...

  19. Cost uncertainty for different levels of technology maturity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DeMuth, S.F.; Franklin, A.L.

    1996-01-01

    It is difficult at best to apply a single methodology for estimating cost uncertainties related to technologies of differing maturity. While highly mature technologies may have significant performance and manufacturing cost data available, less well developed technologies may be defined in only conceptual terms. Regardless of the degree of technical maturity, often a cost estimate relating to application of the technology may be required to justify continued funding for development. Yet, a cost estimate without its associated uncertainty lacks the information required to assess the economic risk. For this reason, it is important for the developer to provide some type of uncertainty along with a cost estimate. This study demonstrates how different methodologies for estimating uncertainties can be applied to cost estimates for technologies of different maturities. For a less well developed technology an uncertainty analysis of the cost estimate can be based on a sensitivity analysis; whereas, an uncertainty analysis of the cost estimate for a well developed technology can be based on an error propagation technique from classical statistics. It was decided to demonstrate these uncertainty estimation techniques with (1) an investigation of the additional cost of remediation due to beyond baseline, nearly complete, waste heel retrieval from underground storage tanks (USTs) at Hanford; and (2) the cost related to the use of crystalline silico-titanate (CST) rather than the baseline CS100 ion exchange resin for cesium separation from UST waste at Hanford

  20. Comparison of State-Funded Technology Maturation Programs.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Warren, Drake [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hess, Marguerite Evelyn [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2016-12-01

    This study examines the structure and impact of state-funded technology maturation programs that leverage research institutions for economic development throughout the United States. The lessons learned and practices identified from previous experiences will inform Sandia National Laboratories' Government Relations and Technology Partnerships teams as they participate in near-term discussions about the proposed Technology Readiness Gross Receipts Tax Credit and Program, and continue to shape longer-term program and partnership opportunities. This Page Intentionally Left Blank

  1. Maturity and Performance in Information Technology Project Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renato de Oliveira Moraes

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available This study concerns the relationship between the information technology (IT project performance and the project management maturity of an organization. The research was developed from a survey of 185 respondents during 2010. Project performance was evaluated using the two first dimensions proposed by Shenhar et al (2001 – project efficiency and impact on the customer. Project management maturity was evaluated using the formalization level of project management processes described in PMBoK. Data were analyzed by statistical methods (factorial analysis, Cronbach´s alpha, cluster analysis and bivariate analysis and showed that (i organizations with superior maturity present superior performance in their projects and (ii different maturity dimensions have distinct impacts on IT projects performance.

  2. MATURING ECRF TECHNOLOGY FOR PLASMA CONTROL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    CALLIS, R.W.; CARY, W.P.; CHU, S.; LOANE, J.L.; ELLIS, R.A.; FELCH, K.; GORELOV, Y.A.; GRUNLOH, H.J.; HOSEA, J.; KAJIWARA, K.; LOHR, J.; LUCE, T.C.; PEAVY, J.J.; PINSKER, R.I.; PONCE, D.; PRATER, R.; SHAPIRO, M.; TEMKIN, R.J.; TOOKER, J.F.

    2002-01-01

    OAK A271 MUTURING ECRF TECHNOLOGY FOR PLASMA CONTROL. Understanding of the physics of internal transport barriers (ITBs) is being furthered by analysis and comparisons of experimental data from many different tokamaks worldwide. An international database consisting of scalar and 2-D profile data for ITB plasmas is being developed to determine the requirements for the formation and sustainment of ITBs and to perform tests of theory-based transport models in an effort to improve the predictive capability of the models. Analysis using the database indicates that: (a) the power required to form ITBs decreases with increased negative magnetic shear of the target plasma, and: (b) the E x B flow shear rate is close to the linear growth rate of the ITG modes at the time of barrier formation when compared for several fusion devices. Tests of several transport models (JETTO, Weiland model) using the 2-D profile data indicate that there is only limited agreement between the model predictions and the experimental results for the range of plasma conditions examined for the different devices (DIII-D, JET, JT-60U). Gyrokinetic stability analysis (using the GKS code) of the ITB discharges from these devices indicates that the ITG/TEM growth rates decrease with increased negative magnetic shear and that the E x B shear rate is comparable to the linear growth rates at the location of the ITB

  3. Forecasting and Technology Management: Statistical Theory and Methodological Issues

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henning

    of directions and targets for a R and D project, monitoring of a given area by a public agency, and evaluation of the future competitive situation for a company. This paper gives a brief introduction to the field of technological forecasting especially in relation to the strategic planning process......, they disturb, for better or worse, existing practices, institutions, and human activities. The rapidity of introduction of technical successors seems to be increasing in many fields. Therefore, each technology concept tends to have a shorter marketplace life because of prompt challenge from a new and superior...... technology. The conclusion is that widespread awareness of the growing force of technology and increasing concern over its impact means that forecasting of technological development and consequences is absolutely essential in many managerial decision situations. Examples cover e.g. identification...

  4. Study on the Method of the Technology Forecasting Based on Conjoint Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miao, Jing-Yi; Liu, Cheng-Yu; Sun, Zhen-Hua

    We discuss an application of conjoint analysis in technology forecasting, summarize basic operation steps of conjoint analysis, and give a stimulant example of technology forecasting. In this example, we consider five factors that will affect the emergence of a new technology. These factors have investing demand in a new technology, potential market value of a new technology, realizable difficulty of a new technology, supporting degree of relative technology to a new technology, and the competitive power of a new technology with original technology. Technology development has a discontinuity. With discontinuity, we cannot forecast the future of technology development, based on the current trend of technology development. As using quantitative methods to make forecasting, we assumed that current trends of technology development hold a fixed law, so those quantitative methods cannot forecast the discontinuity of technology development. Some subjective forecasting methods have huge improvement in technological discontinuity forecasting. The improvement is that forecaster's subjective judgments and capability are embodied in forecasting. But this method has two inherent defects: one is the lack of design ability, which makes this method susceptible to the influence of organizer and forecasting, and the other is that while facing numerous forecasters, the forecasting data are often difficult to explain and analyze; we also have difficultly in making a synthesized judgment. A subjective and synthesized judgment of technology development is similar to economical utility, thus we could apply the measure of colony's utility to improve the appropriateness and reliability of subjective forecasting method. Using conjoint analysis, we can judge the colony's utility accurately, because the datum that we use in analysis comes from the subjective judgments of forecasters to various fields of technical development, but the influence of the random error can be dispelled by using

  5. Computer technology forecast study for general aviation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seacord, C. L.; Vaughn, D.

    1976-01-01

    A multi-year, multi-faceted program is underway to investigate and develop potential improvements in airframes, engines, and avionics for general aviation aircraft. The objective of this study was to assemble information that will allow the government to assess the trends in computer and computer/operator interface technology that may have application to general aviation in the 1980's and beyond. The current state of the art of computer hardware is assessed, technical developments in computer hardware are predicted, and nonaviation large volume users of computer hardware are identified.

  6. Operational flash flood forecasting platform based on grid technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thierion, V.; Ayral, P.-A.; Angelini, V.; Sauvagnargues-Lesage, S.; Nativi, S.; Payrastre, O.

    2009-04-01

    Flash flood events of south of France such as the 8th and 9th September 2002 in the Grand Delta territory caused important economic and human damages. Further to this catastrophic hydrological situation, a reform of flood warning services have been initiated (set in 2006). Thus, this political reform has transformed the 52 existing flood warning services (SAC) in 22 flood forecasting services (SPC), in assigning them territories more hydrological consistent and new effective hydrological forecasting mission. Furthermore, national central service (SCHAPI) has been created to ease this transformation and support local services in their new objectives. New functioning requirements have been identified: - SPC and SCHAPI carry the responsibility to clearly disseminate to public organisms, civil protection actors and population, crucial hydrologic information to better anticipate potential dramatic flood event, - a new effective hydrological forecasting mission to these flood forecasting services seems essential particularly for the flash floods phenomenon. Thus, models improvement and optimization was one of the most critical requirements. Initially dedicated to support forecaster in their monitoring mission, thanks to measuring stations and rainfall radar images analysis, hydrological models have to become more efficient in their capacity to anticipate hydrological situation. Understanding natural phenomenon occuring during flash floods mainly leads present hydrological research. Rather than trying to explain such complex processes, the presented research try to manage the well-known need of computational power and data storage capacities of these services. Since few years, Grid technology appears as a technological revolution in high performance computing (HPC) allowing large-scale resource sharing, computational power using and supporting collaboration across networks. Nowadays, EGEE (Enabling Grids for E-science in Europe) project represents the most important

  7. An improved market penetration model for wind energy technology forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lund, P.D. [Helsinki Univ. of Technology, Espoo (Finland). Advanced Energy Systems

    1995-12-31

    An improved market penetration model with application to wind energy forecasting is presented. In the model, a technology diffusion model and manufacturing learning curve are combined. Based on a 85% progress ratio that was found for European wind manufactures and on wind market statistics, an additional wind power capacity of ca 4 GW is needed in Europe to reach a 30 % price reduction. A full breakthrough to low-cost utility bulk power markets could be achieved at a 24 GW level. (author)

  8. An improved market penetration model for wind energy technology forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lund, P.D.

    1995-01-01

    An improved market penetration model with application to wind energy forecasting is presented. In the model, a technology diffusion model and manufacturing learning curve are combined. Based on a 85% progress ratio that was found for European wind manufactures and on wind market statistics, an additional wind power capacity of ca 4 GW is needed in Europe to reach a 30 % price reduction. A full breakthrough to low-cost utility bulk power markets could be achieved at a 24 GW level. (author)

  9. Improving the Army’s Next Effort in Technology Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-01

    Richard Feynman , “Simulating Physics with Computers,” International Journal of Theoretical Physics, 21 (1982), 467–488. 45 D. Deutsch, “Quantum Theory...Improving the Army’s Next Effort in Technology Forecasting John Lyons, Richard Chait, and Simone Erchov, Editors...Psychology and Human Development from the University of Chicago. Richard Chait is a Distinguished Research Fellow at CTNSP. He was previously Chief

  10. Technology Maturation in Preparation for the Cryogenic Propellant Storage and Transfer (CPST) Technology Demonstration Mission (TDM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Michael L.; Doherty, Michael P.; Moder, Jeffrey P.

    2014-01-01

    In support of its goal to find an innovative path for human space exploration, NASA embarked on the Cryogenic Propellant Storage and Transfer (CPST) Project, a Technology Demonstration Mission (TDM) to test and validate key cryogenic capabilities and technologies required for future exploration elements, opening up the architecture for large in-space cryogenic propulsion stages and propellant depots. Recognizing that key Cryogenic Fluid Management (CFM) technologies anticipated for on-orbit (flight) demonstration would benefit from additional maturation to a readiness level appropriate for infusion into the design of the flight demonstration, the NASA Headquarters Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD) authorized funding for a one-year technology maturation phase of the CPST project. The strategy, proposed by the CPST Project Manager, focused on maturation through modeling, concept studies, and ground tests of the storage and fluid transfer of CFM technology sub-elements and components that were lower than a Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of 5. A technology maturation plan (TMP) was subsequently approved which described: the CFM technologies selected for maturation, the ground testing approach to be used, quantified success criteria of the technologies, hardware and data deliverables, and a deliverable to provide an assessment of the technology readiness after completion of the test, study or modeling activity. The specific technologies selected were grouped into five major categories: thick multilayer insulation, tank applied active thermal control, cryogenic fluid transfer, propellant gauging, and analytical tool development. Based on the success of the technology maturation efforts, the CPST project was approved to proceed to flight system development.

  11. Analyses and Forecasting of Smart Grid Technological Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. V. Danilin

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: this paper analyzes and forecasts medium- to long-term dynamics of Smart Grid technology developments considering both patent activity and socio-economic (demand-side issues and requirements of economy and power system factors. Methods: for the analysis of Smart Grid patent data (IIP, USPTO, and WIPO patent databases used we apply syntactic semantic analysis of texts in natural languages and logistic curve-based method. We propose Exactus Patent system for intelligent full-text search and analysis of patents (results verified with Thomson Innovation and TotalPatent patent search systems. For interpretation of revealed dynamics and forecasting of future conditions we identify key long-term socio-economic factors drivers for Smart Grid development. Elements of C. Christensen (disruptive innovations and G. Dosi (technological trajectories theories were applied. Results: the study reveals a fast technological transformation within the Smart Grid domain due to the long-term socio-economic factors such as rise of renewables; energy efficiency and energy security issues; environmental constraints and shift of values; requirements for accelerated grid construction (in developing economies and grid modernization (in developed ones; ongoing economy-wide digitalization. Due to the limited economic effects of Smart Grid roll-outs (considering major requirements of economic agents and society and considering progressions of patent dynamics, authors forecasts technology stagnation (in terms of number of patents growth by the end of 2010-s as end of Gartner`s hype development stage. Conclusions and Relevance: a foreseen change in dynamics of Smart Grid technology development is interpreted as a manifestation of sinusoidal fluctuations in technology development for disruptive technologies (supported with OECD data. A longer cycle (in comparison with other disruptive technologies is interpreted as consequence of technology and industry specifics

  12. Technology and demand forecasting for carbon capture and storage technology in South Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shin, Jungwoo; Lee, Chul-Yong; Kim, Hongbum

    2016-01-01

    Among the various alternatives available to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, carbon capture and storage (CCS) is considered to be a prospective technology that could both improve economic growth and meet GHG emission reduction targets. Despite the importance of CCS, however, studies of technology and demand forecasting for CCS are scarce. This study bridges this gap in the body of knowledge on this topic by forecasting CCS technology and demand based on an integrated model. For technology forecasting, a logistic model and patent network analysis are used to compare the competitiveness of CCS technology for selected countries. For demand forecasting, a competition diffusion model is adopted to consider competition among renewable energies and forecast demand. The results show that the number of patent applications for CCS technology will increase to 16,156 worldwide and to 4,790 in Korea by 2025. We also find that the United States has the most competitive CCS technology followed by Korea and France. Moreover, about 5 million tCO 2 e of GHG will be reduced by 2040 if CCS technology is adopted in Korea after 2020. - Highlights: • Carbon capture and storage (CCS) can help mitigate climate change globally. • It can both improve economic growth and meet GHG emission reduction targets. • We forecast CCS technology and demand based on an integrated model. • The US has the most competitive CCS technology followed by Korea and France. • 5 million tCO 2 e of GHG will be reduced by 2040 if CCS is adopted in Korea.

  13. A Multi-scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamann, Hendrik F. [IBM, Yorktown Heights, NY (United States). Thomas J. Watson Research Center

    2017-05-31

    The goal of the project was the development and demonstration of a significantly improved solar forecasting technology (short: Watt-sun), which leverages new big data processing technologies and machine-learnt blending between different models and forecast systems. The technology aimed demonstrating major advances in accuracy as measured by existing and new metrics which themselves were developed as part of this project. Finally, the team worked with Independent System Operators (ISOs) and utilities to integrate the forecasts into their operations.

  14. Forecasting and observability: critical technologies for system operations with high PV penetration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alet, Pierre-Jean; Efthymiou, Venizelos; Graditi, Giorgio

    2016-01-01

    Forecasting and monitoring technologies for photovoltaics are required on different spatial and temporal scales by multiple actors, from the owners of PV systems to transmission system operators. In this paper the Grid integration working group of the European Technology and Innovation Platform –...... for a cost/benefit analysis since the forecasting error can be linked to the prices charged for energy imbalance......Forecasting and monitoring technologies for photovoltaics are required on different spatial and temporal scales by multiple actors, from the owners of PV systems to transmission system operators. In this paper the Grid integration working group of the European Technology and Innovation Platform...... – Photovoltaics (ETIP PV) reviews the different use cases for these technologies, their current status, and the need for future developments. Power system operations require a real-time view of PV production for managing power reserves and for feeding shortterm forecasts. They also require forecasts on all...

  15. INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY SERVICE MANAGEMENT PROCESSES MATURITY IN THE BRAZILIAN FEDERAL DIRECT ADMINISTRATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Albeti Vieira Vitoriano

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This work aims at the scrutiny of the current situation of the Information Technology Service Management practices within the Brazilian Federal Direct Administration, from the perceptions of the Information Technology Managers of twelve Ministries. The methodology used followed the Process Maturity Framework as a guideline, which is a maturity model whose patterns are described in ITIL v3. The work consists of interviews with questions related to the five maturity levels, as follows: initial, repetitive, defined, managed and optimized. Information on the five basic Information Technology Service Management processes was collected. Besides the classification of the maturity levels of the processes, the interviews allowed us to gather information about the possible causes that hinder the improvement of the maturity of the processes. The outcomes of the survey on the researched ministries showed low maturity level in all the assessed service management processes. The Incident Management Process presented the highest level of maturity, while Problem Management proved to be the most flawed one, in relation to maturity. The other assessed processes, like Change Management, Service Assets and Configuration Management and Release and Deployment Management presented some sort of homogeneity among the ministries. As for the probable causes that hinder the improvement of the maturity level of the Information Technology Service Management processes, pointed by the managers, the following one stand out: the reduced staff, the lack of resources, the gap between the organizational targets and their processes aims, and the lack of skilled labor.

  16. SWIFTER - Space Weather Informatics, Forecasting, and Technology through Enabling Research and Virtual Organizations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaefer, R. K.; Morrison, D.; Paxton, L.; Holm, J.; Weiss, M.; Hsieh, S.

    2009-05-01

    SWIFTER will build a virtual organization to enable collaboration among research, military, and commercial communities to find new ways to understand, characterize, and forecast space weather to meet the needs of our technology based society. In this paper we discuss how knowledge is shared in organizations and how a virtual organization can be formed. A key element of a "virtual" organization is that it is a fluid collection of members that share some means of communicating relevant information among some of its members. The members also share ideas in evolution (such as analysis, new technologies, and predictive trending). As concepts mature they can be matured or discarded more quickly as the power of the network is brought to bear early and often. Space weather, the changes in the near-Earth space environment, is important to a wide range of users as well as the public. The public is interested in a variety of phenomena including meteors, solar flares, the aurora, noctilucent clouds and climate change. Industry focus tends to be on more concrete problems such as ground-induced currents in power lines and communications with aircraft in transpolar routes as well as geolocation (i.e. the use of GPS systems to precisely map a function to a position). Other government-oriented users service specialized communities who may be more or less unaware of the research and development upon which the forecasts or nowcasts rely for accuracy. The basic research community may be more or less unaware of the details of the applications, or potential applications of their research. The problem, then, is that each of these constituencies may share elements in common but there is no umbrella organization that ties them together, nor is there likely to be such an organization. Our goal in this paper is to outline a scheme for a virtual organization, delineate the functions of that VO and illustrate how it might be formed. We also will assess the barriers to knowledge transfer that

  17. Past speculations of future health technologies: a description of technologies predicted in 15 forecasting studies published between 1986 and 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doos, Lucy; Packer, Claire; Ward, Derek; Simpson, Sue; Stevens, Andrew

    2017-07-31

    To describe and classify health technologies predicted in forecasting studies. A portrait describing health technologies predicted in 15 forecasting studies published between 1986 and 2010 that were identified in a previous systematic review. Health technologies are classified according to their type, purpose and clinical use; relating these to the original purpose and timing of the forecasting studies. All health-related technologies predicted in 15 forecasting studies identified in a previously published systematic review. Outcomes related to (1) each forecasting study including country, year, intention and forecasting methods used and (2) the predicted technologies including technology type, purpose, targeted clinical area and forecast timeframe. Of the 896 identified health-related technologies, 685 (76.5%) were health technologies with an explicit or implied health application and included in our study. Of these, 19.1% were diagnostic or imaging tests, 14.3% devices or biomaterials, 12.6% information technology systems, eHealth or mHealth and 12% drugs. The majority of the technologies were intended to treat or manage disease (38.1%) or diagnose or monitor disease (26.1%). The most frequent targeted clinical areas were infectious diseases followed by cancer, circulatory and nervous system disorders. The most frequent technology types were for: infectious diseases-prophylactic vaccines (45.8%), cancer-drugs (40%), circulatory disease-devices and biomaterials (26.3%), and diseases of the nervous system-equally devices and biomaterials (25%) and regenerative medicine (25%). The mean timeframe for forecasting was 11.6 years (range 0-33 years, median=10, SD=6.6). The forecasting timeframe significantly differed by technology type (p=0.002), the intent of the forecasting group (p<0.001) and the methods used (p<001). While description and classification of predicted health-related technologies is crucial in preparing healthcare systems for adopting new innovations

  18. Space power needs and forecasted technologies for the 1990s and beyond

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buden, D.; Albert, T.

    1987-01-01

    A new generation of reactors for electric power will be available for space missions to satisfy military and civilian needs in the 1990s and beyond. To ensure a useful product, nuclear power plant development must be cognizant of other space power technologies. Major advances in solar and chemical technologies need to be considered in establishing the goals of future nuclear power plants. In addition, the mission needs are evolving into new regimes. Civilian and military power needs are forecasted to exceed anything used in space to date. Technology trend forecasts have been mapped as a function of time for solar, nuclear, chemical, and storage systems to illustrate areas where each technology provides minimum mass. Other system characteristics may dominate the usefulness of a technology on a given mission. This paper will discuss some of these factors, as well as forecast future military and civilian power needs and the status of technologies for the 1990s and 2000s. 6 references

  19. Bidding strategy with forecast technology based on support vector machine in the electricity market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Ciwei; Bompard, Ettore; Napoli, Roberto; Wan, Qiulan; Zhou, Jian

    2008-06-01

    The participants in the electricity market are concerned very much with the market price evolution. Various technologies have been developed for price forecasting. The SVM (Support Vector Machine) has shown its good performance in market price forecasting. Two approaches for forming the market bidding strategies based on SVM are proposed. One is based on the price forecasting accuracy, with which the rejection risk is defined. The other takes into account the impact of the producer’s own bid. The risks associated with the bidding are controlled by the parameter settings. The proposed approaches have been tested on a numerical example.

  20. Green Propellant Infusion Mission Program Development and Technology Maturation

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLean, Christopher H.; Deininger, William D.; Joniatis, John; Aggarwal, Pravin K.; Spores, Ronald A.; Deans, Matthew; Yim, John T.; Bury, Kristen; Martinez, Jonathan; Cardiff, Eric H.; hide

    2014-01-01

    The NASA Space Technology Mission Directorate's (STMD) Green Propellant Infusion Mission (GPIM) Technology Demonstration Mission (TDM) is comprised of a cross-cutting team of domestic spacecraft propulsion and storable green propellant technology experts. This TDM is led by Ball Aerospace & Technologies Corp. (BATC), who will use their BCP- 100 spacecraft to carry a propulsion system payload consisting of one 22 N thruster for primary divert (DeltaV) maneuvers and four 1 N thrusters for attitude control, in a flight demonstration of the AF-M315E technology. The GPIM project has technology infusion team members from all three major market sectors: Industry, NASA, and the Department of Defense (DoD). The GPIM project team includes BATC, includes Aerojet Rocketdyne (AR), Air Force Research Laboratory, Aerospace Systems Directorate, Edwards AFB (AFRL), NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC), NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC), and NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). STMD programmatic and technology oversight is provided by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. The GPIM project shall fly an operational AF-M315E green propulsion subsystem on a Ball-built BCP-100 spacecraft.

  1. New Technology Trends in Education: Seven Years of Forecasts and Convergence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Sergio; Diaz, Gabriel; Sancristobal, Elio; Gil, Rosario; Castro, Manuel; Peire, Juan

    2011-01-01

    Each year since 2004, a new Horizon Report has been released. Each edition attempts to forecast the most promising technologies likely to impact on education along three horizons: the short term (the year of the report), the mid-term (the next 2 years) and the long term (the next 4 years). This paper analyzes the evolution of technology trends…

  2. PATTERNS OF SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT AND THEIR USE IN FORECASTING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. I. Komkov

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In article laws of scientifically-technological development are considered. Their number concern traditional, base and new, formed. Possibilities and ways of the account of the listed laws are shown at forecasting of prospects of scientifically-technological development.

  3. Maturing Pump Technology for EVA Applications in a Collaborative Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodgson, Edward; Dionne, Steven; Gervais, Edward; Anchondo, Ian

    2012-01-01

    The transition from low earth orbit Extravehicular Activity (EVA) for construction and maintenance activities to planetary surface EVA on asteroids, moons, and, ultimately, Mars demands a new spacesuit system. NASA's development of that system has resulted in dramatically different pumping requirements from those in the current spacesuit system. Hamilton Sundstrand, Cascon, and NASA are collaborating to develop and mature a pump that will reliably meet those new requirements in space environments and within the design constraints imposed by spacesuit system integration. That collaboration, which began in the NASA purchase of a pump prototype for test evaluation, is now entering a new phase of development. A second generation pump reflecting the lessons learned in NASA's testing of the original prototype will be developed under Hamilton Sundstrand internal research funding and ultimately tested in an integrated Advanced Portable Life Support System (APLSS) in NASA laboratories at the Johnson Space Center. This partnership is providing benefit to both industry and NASA by supplying a custom component for EVA integrated testing at no cost to the government while providing test data for industry that would otherwise be difficult or impossible to duplicate in industry laboratories. This paper discusses the evolving collaborative process, component requirements and design development based on early NASA test experience, component stand alone test results, and near term plans for integrated testing at JSCs.

  4. Forecasting and observability: critical technologies for system operations with high PV penetration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alet, Pierre-Jean; Efthymiou, Venizelos; Graditi, Giorgio

    2016-01-01

    Forecasting and monitoring technologies for photovoltaics are required on different spatial and temporal scales by multiple actors, from the owners of PV systems to transmission system operators. In this paper the Grid integration working group of the European Technology and Innovation Platform...... – Photovoltaics (ETIP PV) reviews the different use cases for these technologies, their current status, and the need for future developments. Power system operations require a real-time view of PV production for managing power reserves and for feeding shortterm forecasts. They also require forecasts on all...... timescales from the short (for dispatching purposes), where statistical models work best, to the very long (for infrastructure planning), where physics-based models are more accurate. Power system regulations are driving the development of these techniques. This application also provides a good basis...

  5. Patterns of Innovation in Alzheimer's Disease Drug Development: A Strategic Assessment Based on Technological Maturity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beierlein, Jennifer M; McNamee, Laura M; Walsh, Michael J; Ledley, Fred D

    2015-08-01

    This article examines the current status of translational science for Alzheimer's disease (AD) drug discovery by using an analytical model of technology maturation. Previous studies using this model have demonstrated that nascent scientific insights and inventions generate few successful leads or new products until achieving a requisite level of maturity. This article assessed whether recent failures and successes in AD research follow patterns of innovation observed in other sectors. The bibliometric-based Technology Innovation Maturation Evaluation model was used to quantify the characteristic S-curve of growth for AD-related technologies, including acetylcholinesterase, N-methyl-d-aspartate (NMDA) receptors, B-amyloid, amyloid precursor protein, presenilin, amyloid precursor protein secretases, apolipoprotein E4, and transactive response DNA binding protein 43 kDa (TDP-43). This model quantifies the accumulation of knowledge as a metric for technological maturity, and it identifies the point of initiation of an exponential growth stage and the point at which growth slows as the technology is established. In contrast to the long-established acetylcholinesterase and NMDA receptor technologies, we found that amyloid-related technologies reached the established point only after 2000, and that the more recent technologies (eg, TDP-43) have not yet approached this point. The first approvals for new molecular entities targeting acetylcholinesterase and the NMDA receptor occurred an average of 22 years after the respective technologies were established, with only memantine (which was phenotypically discovered) entering clinical trials before this point. In contrast, the 6 lead compounds targeting the formation of amyloid plaques that failed in Phase III trials between 2009 and 2014 all entered clinical trials before the respective target technologies were established. This analysis suggests that AD drug discovery has followed a predictable pattern of innovation in which

  6. Industrial Maturity of FR Fuel Cycle Processes and Technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bruezière, Jérôme

    2013-01-01

    FR fuel cycle processes and technologies have already been proven industrially for Oxide Fuel, and to a lesser extent for metal fuel. In addition, both used oxide fuel reprocessing and fresh oxide fuel manufacturing benefit from similar industrial experience currently deployed for LWR. Alternative fuel type will have to generate very significant benefit in reactor ( safety, cost, … ) to justify corresponding development and industrialization costs

  7. Heap Leaching: Modelling and Forecasting Using CFD Technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diane McBride

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Heap leach operations typically employ some form of modelling and forecasting tools to predict cash flow margins and project viability. However, these vary from simple spreadsheets to phenomenological models, with more complex models not commonly employed as they require the greatest amount of time and effort. Yet, accurate production modelling and forecasting are essential for managing production and potentially critical for successful operation of a complex heap, time and effort spent in setting up modelling tools initially may increase profitability in the long term. A brief overview of various modelling approaches is presented, but this paper focuses on the capabilities of a computational fluid dynamics (CFD model. Advances in computational capability allow for complex CFD models, coupled with leach kinetic models, to be applied to complex ore bodies. In this paper a comprehensive hydrodynamic CFD model is described and applied to chalcopyrite dissolution under heap operating conditions. The model is parameterized against experimental data and validated against a range of experimental leach tests under different thermal conditions. A three-dimensional ‘virtual’ heap, under fluctuating meteorological conditions, is simulated. Continuous and intermittent irrigation is investigated, showing copper recovery per unit volume of applied leach solution to be slightly increased for pulse irrigation.

  8. Technological forecasting a long time of the scientific-technological development of the nuclear fusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schettert, Plinio G.; Oliveira, Wagner S.; Aquino, Afonso R.

    2009-01-01

    With base in the introduction in long time of the nuclear fusion inside of a system of viable energy, taking in consideration economic factors, would imply on investment in a long period. The objective of this project utilizing the method of the Delphi technique is the technological forecast a long time of the scientific-technological development of the nuclear fusion and its impact. This research project will be carried through different stages of improvement of variables. A questionnaire based on information and analysis of the literature validated for specialists in nuclear fusion becomes this project a tool in the elaboration future of a database contends variables on the theme nuclear fusion and its perspectives. The database will be composed for the answers and suggestions obtained, with exploratory and extrapolatory elements, on the theme a great number of specialists involving in the nuclear fusion area. The database is analyzed for the configuration of variables that represent elements as scientific-technological factors, economical, political, social and environmental among others. As final result of the research with the Delphi technique, different scenes obtained with the variables will be indicated by convergent factors or not on the approached perspectives. The analysis of the data will be possible through of improve of statistical analysis tools. This is the first analyzes of the answers. The questionnaire was validated with nuclear fusion specialists from the Institute of Physics of the University of Sao Paulo in Brazil and the Center of Nuclear Fusion of the Technical University of Lisbon in Portugal. (author)

  9. Applicability of SEI's Capability Maturity Model in Joint Information Technology, Supreme Command Headquarters

    OpenAIRE

    Thongmuang, Jitti.

    1995-01-01

    The Software Engineering Institute's (SEI) Capability Maturity Model (CMM) is analyzed to identify its technological and economic applicability for the Joint Information Technology (JIT), Supreme Command Headquarters, Royal Thai Ministry of Defense. Kurt Lewin's force field theory was used to analyze different dimensions of CMM's applicability for JIT's organizational environment (defined by the stakeholder concept). It suggests that introducing CMM technology into JIT is unwarranted at this ...

  10. An Interval Estimation Method of Patent Keyword Data for Sustainable Technology Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daiho Uhm

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Technology forecasting (TF is forecasting the future state of a technology. It is exciting to know the future of technologies, because technology changes the way we live and enhances the quality of our lives. In particular, TF is an important area in the management of technology (MOT for R&D strategy and new product development. Consequently, there are many studies on TF. Patent analysis is one method of TF because patents contain substantial information regarding developed technology. The conventional methods of patent analysis are based on quantitative approaches such as statistics and machine learning. The most traditional TF methods based on patent analysis have a common problem. It is the sparsity of patent keyword data structured from collected patent documents. After preprocessing with text mining techniques, most frequencies of technological keywords in patent data have values of zero. This problem creates a disadvantage for the performance of TF, and we have trouble analyzing patent keyword data. To solve this problem, we propose an interval estimation method (IEM. Using an adjusted Wald confidence interval called the Agresti–Coull confidence interval, we construct our IEM for efficient TF. In addition, we apply the proposed method to forecast the technology of an innovative company. To show how our work can be applied in the real domain, we conduct a case study using Apple technology.

  11. Past speculations of the future: a review of the methods used for forecasting emerging health technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doos, Lucy; Packer, Claire; Ward, Derek; Simpson, Sue; Stevens, Andrew

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Forecasting can support rational decision-making around the introduction and use of emerging health technologies and prevent investment in technologies that have limited long-term potential. However, forecasting methods need to be credible. We performed a systematic search to identify the methods used in forecasting studies to predict future health technologies within a 3–20-year timeframe. Identification and retrospective assessment of such methods potentially offer a route to more reliable prediction. Design Systematic search of the literature to identify studies reported on methods of forecasting in healthcare. Participants People are not needed in this study. Data sources The authors searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsychINFO and grey literature sources, and included articles published in English that reported their methods and a list of identified technologies. Main outcome measure Studies reporting methods used to predict future health technologies within a 3–20-year timeframe with an identified list of individual healthcare technologies. Commercially sponsored reviews, long-term futurology studies (with over 20-year timeframes) and speculative editorials were excluded. Results 15 studies met our inclusion criteria. Our results showed that the majority of studies (13/15) consulted experts either alone or in combination with other methods such as literature searching. Only 2 studies used more complex forecasting tools such as scenario building. Conclusions The methodological fundamentals of formal 3–20-year prediction are consistent but vary in details. Further research needs to be conducted to ascertain if the predictions made were accurate and whether accuracy varies by the methods used or by the types of technologies identified. PMID:26966060

  12. Technology Reconciliation in the Remote Sensing ERA of United States Civilian Weather Forecasting: 1957 -1987.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Courain, Margaret Eileen

    This dissertation seeks to advance an understanding of the management of a major technological change in meteorology. The study examines the connection between changes in production and real-time use of data products derived from remote -sensing data collection and the evolution of U.S. civilian weather forecasting 1957-1987. The role of data collection in weather forecasting throughout history is examined, giving most attention to the 1957-1987 period. Critical to the real-time use of remote-sensing data was technology reconciliation. As defined by the author, it is the function or process by which data products and information derived from a new technology are made consistent or congruent with the existing data representations of a science in order to be used effectively. No model had been developed for a technology reconciliation process, or definition of the major role technology reconciliators played in the 30-year evolution of the science of weather forecasting. In order to assess the new remote-sensing data resource and its use in U.S. civilian weather forecasting, a Data Accountability and Review Technique (DART) was developed by the author in 1989. This technique was used to identify 16 of the technology reconciliators who developed and reconciled 25 new remote-sensing data products with the weather charts, maps and computer models of the National Weather Service. In five separate program teams, they were responsible for 15 improvements in the products--forecasts--and 18 improvement in the process of weather forecasting. A model of the technology reconciliation is proposed which can be applied to understanding the contemporary history of other sciences. The model, as well as the methods developed by the author to recognize the process of technology reconciliation has a much more general applicability beyond the sciences. Any field implementing new technology that promises to improve its whole way of working will be faced with the task of technology

  13. Technology Maturity for the Habitable-zone Exoplanet Imaging Mission (HabEx) Concept

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan, Rhonda; Warfield, Keith R.; Stahl, H. Philip; Mennesson, Bertrand; Nikzad, Shouleh; nissen, joel; Balasubramanian, Kunjithapatham; Krist, John; Mawet, Dimitri; Stapelfeldt, Karl; warwick, Steve

    2018-01-01

    HabEx Architecture A is a 4m unobscured telescope optimized for direct imaging and spectroscopy of potentially habitable exoplanets, and also enables a wide range of general astrophysics science. The exoplanet detection and characterization drives the enabling core technologies. A hybrid starlight suppression approach of a starshade and coronagraph diversifies technology maturation risk. In this poster we assess these exoplanet-driven technologies, including elements of coronagraphs, starshades, mirrors, jitter mitigation, wavefront control, and detectors. By utilizing high technology readiness solutions where feasible, and identifying required technology development that can begin early, HabEx will be well positioned for assessment by the community in 2020 Astrophysics Decadal Survey.

  14. A Comparative Study of the Phenolic and Technological Maturities of Red Grapes Grown in Lebanon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hiba N. Rajha

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Grape harvest date is determined according to the technological and phenolic maturities. These parameters were calculated for different red grape (Vitis vinifera L. varieties (Cabernet Sauvignon, Merlot, Syrah, Cabernet Franc over four years (2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011 (642 samples. Titratable acidity and sugar content of the grapes were used to determine the technological maturity, whereas Glories (1 and 2 and ITV (Institut Technique de la Vigne et du Vin methods were used to monitor their phenolic maturity. The ITV method allows the monitoring of phenolic maturity by the quantification of total polyphenol index and anthocyanins, while the Glories method enables the quantitative evolution of extractable anthocyanins and tannins of the grapes. A correlation was shown between the harvest dates obtained by both ITV and Glories (R2 = 0.7 – 0.93. Phenolic maturity of grapes can, therefore, be optimized by the application of both ITV and Glories. Similarly, a correlation was observed between technological and phenolic harvest dates. The effect of climate on the phenolic content of grapes was also studied. The highest temperatures(up to 25◦Caccompanied by the lowest rainfall (null value, induced the maximal concentration of polyphenols in grapes. Thermal and water stresses were also shown to enhance the grapes’ polyphenolic production.

  15. Approaches, techniques, and information technology systems in the restaurants and foodservice industry: a qualitative study in sales forecasting.

    OpenAIRE

    Green, Yvette N. J.; Weaver, Pamela A.

    2008-01-01

    This is a study of the approaches, techniques, and information technology systems utilized for restaurant sales forecasting in the full-service restaurant segment. Companies were examined using a qualitative research methods design and long interviews to gather information on approaches, techniques, and technology systems utilized in the sales forecasting process. The results of the interviews were presented along with ensuing discussion.

  16. Cryogenic Propellant Storage and Transfer (CPST) Technology Maturation: Establishing a Foundation for a Technology Demonstration Mission (TDM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doherty, Michael P.; Meyer, Michael L.; Motil, Susan M.; Ginty, Carol A.

    2014-01-01

    As part of U.S. National Space Policy, NASA is seeking an innovative path for human space exploration, which strengthens the capability to extend human and robotic presence throughout the solar system. NASA is laying the groundwork to enable humans to safely reach multiple potential destinations, including asteroids, Lagrange points, the Moon and Mars. In support of this, NASA is embarking on the Technology Demonstration Mission Cryogenic Propellant Storage and Transfer (TDM CPST) Project to test and validate key cryogenic capabilities and technologies required for future exploration elements, opening up the architecture for large cryogenic propulsion stages (CPS) and propellant depots. The TDM CPST project will provide an on-orbit demonstration of the capability to store, transfer, and measure cryogenic propellants for a duration which is relevant to enable long term human space exploration missions beyond low Earth orbit (LEO). Recognizing that key cryogenic fluid management technologies anticipated for on-orbit (flight) demonstration needed to be matured to a readiness level appropriate for infusion into the design of the flight demonstration, the NASA Headquarters Space Technology Mission Directorate authorized funding for a one-year (FY12) ground based technology maturation program. The strategy, proposed by the CPST Project Manager, focused on maturation through modeling, studies, and ground tests of the storage and fluid transfer Cryogenic Fluid Management (CFM) technology sub-elements and components that were not already at a Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of 5. A technology maturation plan (TMP) was subsequently approved which described: the CFM technologies selected for maturation, the ground testing approach to be used, quantified success criteria of the technologies, hardware and data deliverables, and a deliverable to provide an assessment of the technology readiness after completion of the test, study or modeling activity. This paper will present

  17. Technology Alignment and Portfolio Prioritization (TAPP): Advanced Methods in Strategic Analysis, Technology Forecasting and Long Term Planning for Human Exploration and Operations, Advanced Exploration Systems and Advanced Concepts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funaro, Gregory V.; Alexander, Reginald A.

    2015-01-01

    The Advanced Concepts Office (ACO) at NASA, Marshall Space Flight Center is expanding its current technology assessment methodologies. ACO is developing a framework called TAPP that uses a variety of methods, such as association mining and rule learning from data mining, structure development using a Technological Innovation System (TIS), and social network modeling to measure structural relationships. The role of ACO is to 1) produce a broad spectrum of ideas and alternatives for a variety of NASA's missions, 2) determine mission architecture feasibility and appropriateness to NASA's strategic plans, and 3) define a project in enough detail to establish an initial baseline capable of meeting mission objectives ACO's role supports the decision­-making process associated with the maturation of concepts for traveling through, living in, and understanding space. ACO performs concept studies and technology assessments to determine the degree of alignment between mission objectives and new technologies. The first step in technology assessment is to identify the current technology maturity in terms of a technology readiness level (TRL). The second step is to determine the difficulty associated with advancing a technology from one state to the next state. NASA has used TRLs since 1970 and ACO formalized them in 1995. The DoD, ESA, Oil & Gas, and DoE have adopted TRLs as a means to assess technology maturity. However, "with the emergence of more complex systems and system of systems, it has been increasingly recognized that TRL assessments have limitations, especially when considering [the] integration of complex systems." When performing the second step in a technology assessment, NASA requires that an Advancement Degree of Difficulty (AD2) method be utilized. NASA has used and developed or used a variety of methods to perform this step: Expert Opinion or Delphi Approach, Value Engineering or Value Stream, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Technique for the Order of

  18. A review on technology maturity of small scale energy storage technologies★

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nguyen Thu-Trang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper reviews the current status of energy storage technologies which have the higher potential to be applied in small scale energy systems. Small scale energy systems can be categorized as ones that are able to supply energy in various forms for a building, or a small area, or a limited community, or an enterprise; typically, they are end-user systems. Energy storage technologies are classified based on their form of energy stored. A two-step evaluation is proposed for selecting suitable storage technologies for small scale energy systems, including identifying possible technical options, and addressing techno-economic aspects. Firstly, a review on energy storage technologies at small scale level is carried out. Secondly, an assessment of technology readiness level (TRL is conducted. The TRLs are ranked according to information gathered from literature review. Levels of market maturity of the technologies are addressed by taking into account their market development stages through reviewing published materials. The TRLs and the levels of market maturity are then combined into a technology maturity curve. Additionally, market driving factors are identified by using different stages in product life cycle. The results indicate that lead-acid, micro pumped hydro storage, NaS battery, NiCd battery, flywheel, NaNiCl battery, Li-ion battery, and sensible thermal storage are the most mature technologies for small scale energy systems. In the near future, hydrogen fuel cells, thermal storages using phase change materials and thermochemical materials are expected to become more popular in the energy storage market.

  19. TECHNOLOGY MATURATION PLAN FOR ALUMINUM REMOVAL AND SODIUM HYDROXIDE REGENERATION FROM HANFORD WASTE BY LITHIUM HYDROTALCITE PRECIPITATION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    SAMS TL; GUILLOT S

    2011-01-27

    This Technology Maturation Plan schedules the development process that will bring the Lithium Hydrotalcite waste pretreatment process from its current estimated Technology Readiness Level of 3, to a level of 6. This maturation approach involves chemical and engineering research and development work, from laboratory scale to pilot scale testing, to incrementally make the process progress towards its integration in a fully qualified industrial system.

  20. Technology Maturation Plan For Aluminum Removal And Sodium Hydroxide Regeneration From Hanford Waste By Lithium Hydrotalcite Precipitation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sams, T.L.; Guillot, S.

    2011-01-01

    This Technology Maturation Plan schedules the development process that will bring the Lithium Hydrotalcite waste pretreatment process from its current estimated Technology Readiness Level of 3, to a level of 6. This maturation approach involves chemical and engineering research and development work, from laboratory scale to pilot scale testing, to incrementally make the process progress towards its integration in a fully qualified industrial system.

  1. Use of computer technologies in physical education of women of the first mature age

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julia Tomilina

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: the improvement of process of physical education of women of the first mature age by means of Pilates with use of information technologies. Material & Methods: the experience of development and deployment of computer technologies in the process of physical education of women of mature age was systematized by means of the analysis of scientific and methodical and special literature and the best pedagogical and coach's practices, which is presented in mass media. The ways of application of computer programs were revealed, and the computer program ‘’Pilates’’ was developed by means of programming in the system Visual Basic. Results: the computer program ‘’Pilates’’, which consists of directory, settlement and recreational blocks, is offered for the purpose of improvement of the process of physical education of women of the first mature age by means of Pilates and increase in their motivation to classes by physical exercises. Conclusions: it is revealed that application of the computer programs has the positive effect in practice of physical education of women of the first mature age. The computer program ‘’Pilates’’ is submitted.

  2. When a mature technology company pivots: A case study of Logitech

    OpenAIRE

    Anderson Darrell; Daniel Johnson

    2016-01-01

    Life cycle theory has been shown to be an important explanation of the relationship between sales and stock prices. This study explores how the technology company Logitech attempted a transition from a mature life-cycle company in computer peripherals to a growth company in the music, tablet, and gaming industries. We show that stock price correlates with accounting performance differently across the company’s life cycle.

  3. Applying the Repertory Grid Method for Technology Forecasting: Civil Unmanned Aviation Systems for Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eimecke Jörgen

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Multistage expert surveys like the Delphi method are proven concepts for technology forecasting that enable the prediction of content-related and temporal development in fields of innovation (e.g., [1, 2]. Advantages of these qualitative multistage methods are a simple and easy to understand concept while still delivering valid results [3]. Nevertheless, the literature also points out certain disadvantages especially in large-scale technology forecasts in particularly abstract fields of innovation [4]. The proposed approach highlights the usefulness of the repertory grid method as an alternative for technology forecasting and as a first step for preference measurement. The basic approach from Baier and Kohler [5] is modified in-so-far that an online survey reduces the cognitive burden for the experts and simplifies the data collection process. Advantages over alternative approaches through its simple structure and through combining qualitative and quantitative methods are shown and an adaption on an actual field of innovation – civil drones in Germany – is done. The measurement of a common terminology for all experts minimizes misunderstandings during the interview and the achievement of an inter-individual comparable level of abstraction is forced by the laddering technique [6] during the interview.

  4. Technological developments in real-time operational hydrologic forecasting in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudlow, Michael D.

    1988-09-01

    The hydrologic forecasting service of the United States spans applications and scales ranging from those associated with the issuance of flood and flash warnings to those pertaining to seasonal water supply forecasts. New technological developments (underway in or planned by the National Weather Service (NWS) in support of the Hydrologic Program) are carried out as combined efforts by NWS headquarters and field personnel in cooperation with other organizations. These developments fall into two categories: hardware and software systems technology, and hydrometeorological analysis and prediction technology. Research, development, and operational implementation in progress in both of these areas are discussed. Cornerstones of an overall NWS modernization effort include implementation of state-of-the-art data acquisition systems (including the Next Generation Weather Radar) and communications and computer processing systems. The NWS Hydrologic Service will capitalize on these systems and will incorporate results from specific hydrologic projects including collection and processing of multivariate data sets, conceptual hydrologic modeling systems, integrated hydrologic modeling systems with meteorological interfaces and automatic updating of model states, and extended streamflow prediction techniques. The salient aspects of ongoing work in these areas are highlighted in this paper, providing some perspective on the future U.S. hydrologic forecasting service and its transitional period into the 1990s.

  5. A formulation of multidimensional growth models for the assessment and forecast of technology attributes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danner, Travis W.

    Developing technology systems requires all manner of investment---engineering talent, prototypes, test facilities, and more. Even for simple design problems the investment can be substantial; for complex technology systems, the development costs can be staggering. The profitability of a corporation in a technology-driven industry is crucially dependent on maximizing the effectiveness of research and development investment. Decision-makers charged with allocation of this investment are forced to choose between the further evolution of existing technologies and the pursuit of revolutionary technologies. At risk on the one hand is excessive investment in an evolutionary technology which has only limited availability for further improvement. On the other hand, the pursuit of a revolutionary technology may mean abandoning momentum and the potential for substantial evolutionary improvement resulting from the years of accumulated knowledge. The informed answer to this question, evolutionary or revolutionary, requires knowledge of the expected rate of improvement and the potential a technology offers for further improvement. This research is dedicated to formulating the assessment and forecasting tools necessary to acquire this knowledge. The same physical laws and principles that enable the development and improvement of specific technologies also limit the ultimate capability of those technologies. Researchers have long used this concept as the foundation for modeling technological advancement through extrapolation by analogy to biological growth models. These models are employed to depict technology development as it asymptotically approaches limits established by the fundamental principles on which the technological approach is based. This has proven an effective and accurate approach to modeling and forecasting simple single-attribute technologies. With increased system complexity and the introduction of multiple system objectives, however, the usefulness of this

  6. Production Costs of Alternative Transportation Fuels. Influence of Crude Oil Price and Technology Maturity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cazzola, Pierpaolo; Morrison, Geoff; Kaneko, Hiroyuki; Cuenot, Francois; Ghandi, Abbas; Fulton, Lewis

    2013-07-01

    This study examines the production costs of a range of transport fuels and energy carriers under varying crude oil price assumptions and technology market maturation levels. An engineering ''bottom-up'' approach is used to estimate the effect of the input cost of oil and of various technological assumptions on the finished price of these fuels. In total, the production costs of 20 fuels are examined for crude oil prices between USD 60 and USD 150 per barrel. Some fuel pathways can be competitive with oil as their production, transport and storage technology matures, and as oil price increases. Rising oil prices will offer new opportunities to switch to alternative fuels for transport, to diversify the energy mix of the transport sector, and to reduce the exposure of the whole system to price volatility and potential distuption of supply. In a time of uncertainty about the leading vehicle technology to decarbonize the transport sector, looking at the fuel cost brings key information to be considered to keep mobility affordable yet sustainable.

  7. Development vs. Deployment: How Mature Should a Technology be Before it is Considered for Inclusion in an Acquisition Program?

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Pennock, Michael J; Rouse, William B; Kollar, Diane

    2007-01-01

    ...: the maturity of critical technologies employed in major defense acquisition programs. There have been repeated calls for the DoD to use evolutionary rather than revolutionary acquisition strategies...

  8. Wind energy in Quebec : a technology that has reached maturity; L'energie eolienne au Quebec : une technologie qui a atteint la maturite

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Masson, C. [Ecole de Technologie Superieure, Montreal, PQ (Canada). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering

    2007-09-15

    The exploitation of wind energy for the production of electricity is currently experiencing a boom in many regions of the world. The total installed capacity of wind energy has reached more than 59,000 MW throughout the world, with the major manufacturers and producers located in Germany, Denmark, Spain and the United States. India and China are also rapidly developing wind technology. Quebec has recently joined in this technology race. The province currently has 300 MW of installed wind power with a projected installation of 4,000 MW. The installations in Quebec are the result of technological advancement in the 1980s by Danish developers of the triple-blade rotor with a horizontal axis. There are two modes of operation, with the first one being during low and medium winds. Gears multiply the speed of rotation to allow for optimal performance under various wind speeds. More wind turbines now have direct drives, which produce more electricity with lower wind speeds. This technology has enabled the construction of bigger, taller and more powerful wind turbines. Manufacturers today propose machines that measure up to 125 m in diameter producing 5 MW of electricity. These windmills are mostly used offshore. Hydro-Quebec, in collaboration with Environment Canada, is also developing a model of predictability of electricity production by wind turbines. This technology will require weather forecasting designed specifically for wind turbines. It was concluded that wind turbine technology has reached maturity. 2 figs.

  9. Load forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mak, H.

    1995-01-01

    Slides used in a presentation at The Power of Change Conference in Vancouver, BC in April 1995 about the changing needs for load forecasting were presented. Technological innovations and population increase were said to be the prime driving forces behind the changing needs in load forecasting. Structural changes, market place changes, electricity supply planning changes, and changes in planning objectives were other factors discussed. It was concluded that load forecasting was a form of information gathering, that provided important market intelligence

  10. Technology of making healthy and correction of build of men of the first mature age

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stroganov S.V.

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Directions of search of ways of making healthy of population of mature age are considered. In an experiment 30 men took part 21-35 years. The men of experimental group conducted training on the basis of 4th of the monthly program of correction and making healthy. There was statistically meaningful divergence in the capacity of men of experimental group by comparison to the men of control group. Also in the subjective estimation of own build, feel for a day, at the end of workweek and after training. Employment on the developed technology induced the men of experimental group a greater measure to give up harmful habits.

  11. Translational Science by Public Biotechnology Companies in the IPO“Class of 2000”: The Impact of Technological Maturity

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNamee, Laura; Ledley, Fred

    2013-01-01

    The biotechnology industry plays a central role in the translation of nascent biomedical science into both products that offer material health benefits and creating capital growth. This study examines the relationship between the maturity of technologies in a characteristic life cycle and value creation by biotechnology companies. We examined the core technology, product development pipelines, and capitalization for a cohort of biotechnology companies that completed an IPO in 2000. Each of these companies was well financed and had core technologies on the leading edge of biological science. We found that companies with the least mature technologies had significantly higher valuations at IPO, but failed to develop products based on these technologies over the ensuing decade, and created less capital growth than companies with more mature technologies at IPO. The observation that this cohort of recently public biotechnology companies was not effective in creating value from nascent science suggests the need for new, evidence-based business strategies for translational science. PMID:24358154

  12. Translational science by public biotechnology companies in the IPO "class of 2000": the impact of technological maturity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNamee, Laura; Ledley, Fred

    2013-01-01

    The biotechnology industry plays a central role in the translation of nascent biomedical science into both products that offer material health benefits and creating capital growth. This study examines the relationship between the maturity of technologies in a characteristic life cycle and value creation by biotechnology companies. We examined the core technology, product development pipelines, and capitalization for a cohort of biotechnology companies that completed an IPO in 2000. Each of these companies was well financed and had core technologies on the leading edge of biological science. We found that companies with the least mature technologies had significantly higher valuations at IPO, but failed to develop products based on these technologies over the ensuing decade, and created less capital growth than companies with more mature technologies at IPO. The observation that this cohort of recently public biotechnology companies was not effective in creating value from nascent science suggests the need for new, evidence-based business strategies for translational science.

  13. Review of methods for forecasting the market penetration of new technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gilshannon, S.T.; Brown, D.R.

    1996-12-01

    In 1993 the DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EE) initiated a program called Quality Metrics. Quality Metrics was developed to measure the costs and benefits of technologies being developed by EE R&D programs. The impact of any new technology is directly related to its adoption by the market. The techniques employed to project market adoption are critical to measuring a new technology`s impact. Our purpose was to review current market penetration theories and models and develop a recommended approach for evaluating the market penetration of DOE technologies. The following commonly cited innovation diffusion theories were reviewed to identify analytical approaches relevant to new energy technologies: (1) the normal noncumulative adopter distribution method, (2) the Bass Model, (3) the Mansfield-Blackman Model, (4) the Fisher-Pry Model, (5) a meta-analysis of innovation diffusion studies. Of the theories reviewed, the Bass and Mansfield-Blackman models were found most applicable to forecasting the market penetration of electricity supply technologies. Their algorithms require input estimates which characterize the technology adoption behavior of the electricity supply industry. But, inadequate work has been done to quantify the technology adoption characteristics of this industry. The following energy technology market penetration models were also reviewed: (1) DOE`s Renewable Energy Penetration (REP) Model, (2) DOE`s Electricity Capacity Planning Submodule of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), (3) the Assessment of Energy Technologies (ASSET) model by Regional Economic Research, Inc., (4) the Market TREK model by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). The two DOE models were developed for electricity generation technologies whereas the Regional Economic Research and EPRI models were designed for demand- side energy technology markets. Therefore, the review and evaluation focused on the DOE models.

  14. Probabilistic Latent Semantic Analyses (PLSA in Bibliometric Analysis for Technology Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Zan

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Due to the availability of internet-based abstract services and patent databases, bibliometric analysis has become one of key technology forecasting approaches. Recently, latent semantic analysis (LSA has been applied to improve the accuracy in document clustering. In this paper, a new LSA method, probabilistic latent semantic analysis (PLSA which uses probabilistic methods and algebra to search latent space in the corpus is further applied in document clustering. The results show that PLSA is more accurate than LSA and the improved iteration method proposed by authors can simplify the computing process and improve the computing efficiency

  15. Review of methods for forecasting the market penetration of new technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilshannon, S.T.; Brown, D.R.

    1996-12-01

    In 1993 the DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EE) initiated a program called Quality Metrics. Quality Metrics was developed to measure the costs and benefits of technologies being developed by EE R ampersand D programs. The impact of any new technology is directly related to its adoption by the market. The techniques employed to project market adoption are critical to measuring a new technology's impact. Our purpose was to review current market penetration theories and models and develop a recommended approach for evaluating the market penetration of DOE technologies. The following commonly cited innovation diffusion theories were reviewed to identify analytical approaches relevant to new energy technologies: (1) the normal noncumulative adopter distribution method, (2) the Bass Model, (3) the Mansfield-Blackman Model, (4) the Fisher-Pry Model, (5) a meta-analysis of innovation diffusion studies. Of the theories reviewed, the Bass and Mansfield-Blackman models were found most applicable to forecasting the market penetration of electricity supply technologies. Their algorithms require input estimates which characterize the technology adoption behavior of the electricity supply industry. But, inadequate work has been done to quantify the technology adoption characteristics of this industry. The following energy technology market penetration models were also reviewed: (1) DOE's Renewable Energy Penetration (REP) Model, (2) DOE's Electricity Capacity Planning Submodule of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), (3) the Assessment of Energy Technologies (ASSET) model by Regional Economic Research, Inc., (4) the Market TREK model by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). The two DOE models were developed for electricity generation technologies whereas the Regional Economic Research and EPRI models were designed for demand- side energy technology markets. Therefore, the review and evaluation focused on the DOE models

  16. An extension of the technology acceptance model for business intelligence systems: project management maturity perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirjana Pejić Bach

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Business intelligence systems (BISs refer to wide range of technologies and applications useful for retrieving and analyzing the large amount of information with the goal to generate knowledge useful for making effective business decision. In order to investigate adoption of BISs in companies, we propose a model based on the technology acceptance model (TAM that is expanded by variables representing the concept of a project management maturity (PMM. The survey on the sample of USA companies has been conducted with the chief information officer (CIO as the main informant. Structural equations model has been developed in order to test the research model. Results indicate that TAM expanded with the notion of PMM is useful in increasing understanding of BISs adoption in companies.

  17. New technology for using meteorological information in forest insect pest forecast and warning systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, Jiang-Lin; Yang, Xiu-Hao; Yang, Zhong-Wu; Luo, Ji-Tong; Lei, Xiu-Feng

    2017-12-01

    Near surface air temperature and rainfall are major weather factors affecting forest insect dynamics. The recent developments in remote sensing retrieval and geographic information system spatial analysis techniques enable the utilization of weather factors to significantly enhance forest pest forecasting and warning systems. The current study focused on building forest pest digital data structures as a platform of correlation analysis between weather conditions and forest pest dynamics for better pest forecasting and warning systems using the new technologies. The study dataset contained 3 353 425 small polygons with 174 defined attributes covering 95 counties of Guangxi province of China currently registering 292 forest pest species. Field data acquisition and information transfer systems were established with four software licences that provided 15-fold improvement compared to the systems currently used in China. Nine technical specifications were established including codes of forest districts, pest species and host tree species, and standard practices of forest pest monitoring and information management. Attributes can easily be searched using ArcGIS9.3 and/or the free QGIS2.16 software. Small polygons with pest relevant attributes are a new tool of precision farming and detailed forest insect pest management that are technologically advanced. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

  18. CMC thermal protection system for future reusable launch vehicles: Generic shingle technological maturation and tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pichon, T.; Barreteau, R.; Soyris, P.; Foucault, A.; Parenteau, J. M.; Prel, Y.; Guedron, S.

    2009-07-01

    Experimental re-entry demonstrators are currently being developed in Europe, with the objective of increasing the technology readiness level (TRL) of technologies applicable to future reusable launch vehicles. Among these are the Pre-X programme, currently funded by CNES, the French Space Agency, and which is about to enter into development phase B, and the IXV, within the future launcher preparatory programme (FLPP) funded by ESA. One of the major technologies necessary for such vehicles is the thermal protection system (TPS), and in particular the ceramic matrix composites (CMC) based windward TPS. In support of this goal, technology maturation activities named "generic shingle" were initiated beginning of 2003 by SPS, under a CNES contract, with the objective of performing a test campaign of a complete shingle of generic design, in preparation of the development of a re-entry experimental vehicle decided in Europe. The activities performed to date include: the design, manufacturing of two C/SiC panels, finite element model (FEM) calculation of the design, testing of technological samples extracted from a dedicated panel, mechanical pressure testing of a panel, and a complete study of the attachment system. Additional testing is currently under preparation on the panel equipped with its insulation, seal, attachment device, and representative portion of cold structure, to further assess its behaviour in environments relevant to its application The paper will present the activities that will have been performed in 2006 on the prediction and preparation of these modal characterization, dynamic, acoustic as well as thermal and thermo-mechanical tests. Results of these tests will be presented and the lessons learned will be discussed.

  19. Technology data characterizing refrigeration in commercial buildings: Application to end-use forecasting with COMMEND 4.0

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sezgen, O.; Koomey, J.G.

    1995-12-01

    In the United States, energy consumption is increasing most rapidly in the commercial sector. Consequently, the commercial sector is becoming an increasingly important target for state and federal energy policies and also for utility-sponsored demand side management (DSM) programs. The rapid growth in commercial-sector energy consumption also makes it important for analysts working on energy policy and DSM issues to have access to energy end-use forecasting models that include more detailed representations of energy-using technologies in the commercial sector. These new forecasting models disaggregate energy consumption not only by fuel type, end use, and building type, but also by specific technology. The disaggregation of the refrigeration end use in terms of specific technologies, however, is complicated by several factors. First, the number of configurations of refrigeration cases and systems is quite large. Also, energy use is a complex function of the refrigeration-case properties and the refrigeration-system properties. The Electric Power Research Institute`s (EPRI`s) Commercial End-Use Planning System (COMMEND 4.0) and the associated data development presented in this report attempt to address the above complications and create a consistent forecasting framework. Expanding end-use forecasting models so that they address individual technology options requires characterization of the present floorstock in terms of service requirements, energy technologies used, and cost-efficiency attributes of the energy technologies that consumers may choose for new buildings and retrofits. This report describes the process by which we collected refrigeration technology data. The data were generated for COMMEND 4.0 but are also generally applicable to other end-use forecasting frameworks for the commercial sector.

  20. Criteria and model for assessing and improving information technology maturity within maintenance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kans, M; Ehsanifard, K; Moniri, A

    2012-01-01

    Maintenance optimization and decision-making processes have been both influenced considerably by Information Technology (IT) developments mainly by increasing data availability. The decision-making process in its turn has affected systems trustworthiness positively. Therefore, theoretically speaking it could be said that Maintenance Management Information technology (MMIT) has the potential to provide applicable solutions for many of the maintenance management problems. Nevertheless, this potential has been hardly experienced in practice because of the mismatch between the level of IT maturity in the organizations and their selected MMIT solutions. To fill this gap this paper suggests a number of criteria which are crucial in decision making for selecting a MMIT application. The criteria are formed based on previous findings utilising an extensive literature review. A model is further developed for this purpose which is also tested on a case company active in power generation in Sweden. The model proved to be helpful when taking further improvement steps for reaching high utilization of IT in maintenance.

  1. Technological forecasting applied to the processes of hydrogen generation; Previsao tecnologica sobre os processos de geracao de hidrogenio

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nakano, Milton Satocy; Oliveira, Wagner dos Santos [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)], e-mails: msnakano@usp.br; wagner@ipen.br

    2008-11-15

    Fuel cells are attracting interest as efficient and clean energy conversion devices. Hydrogen is the combustible of the fuel cells and must be generated by an efficient and clean method. This work exploits Delphi methodology of technological forecasting applied to hydrogen generation and identifies the most probable methods that, in future, can be used to obtain hydrogen in Brazil. (author)

  2. Preliminary Technology Maturation Plan for Immobilization of High-Level Waste in Glass Ceramics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vienna, John D.; Crum, Jarrod V.; Sevigny, Gary J.; Smith, G L.

    2012-09-30

    A technology maturation plan (TMP) was developed for immobilization of high-level waste (HLW) raffinate in a glass ceramics waste form using a cold-crucible induction melter (CCIM). The TMP was prepared by the following process: 1) define the reference process and boundaries of the technology being matured, 2) evaluate the technology elements and identify the critical technology elements (CTE), 3) identify the technology readiness level (TRL) of each of the CTE’s using the DOE G 413.3-4, 4) describe the development and demonstration activities required to advance the TRLs to 4 and 6 in order, and 5) prepare a preliminary plan to conduct the development and demonstration. Results of the technology readiness assessment identified five CTE’s and found relatively low TRL’s for each of them: • Mixing, sampling, and analysis of waste slurry and melter feed: TRL-1 • Feeding, melting, and pouring: TRL-1 • Glass ceramic formulation: TRL-1 • Canister cooling and crystallization: TRL-1 • Canister decontamination: TRL-4 Although the TRL’s are low for most of these CTE’s (TRL-1), the effort required to advance them to higher values. The activities required to advance the TRL’s are listed below: • Complete this TMP • Perform a preliminary engineering study • Characterize, estimate, and simulate waste to be treated • Laboratory scale glass ceramic testing • Melter and off-gas testing with simulants • Test the mixing, sampling, and analyses • Canister testing • Decontamination system testing • Issue a requirements document • Issue a risk management document • Complete preliminary design • Integrated pilot testing • Issue a waste compliance plan A preliminary schedule and budget were developed to complete these activities as summarized in the following table (assuming 2012 dollars). TRL Budget Year MSA FMP GCF CCC CD Overall $M 2012 1 1 1 1 4 1 0.3 2013 2 2 1 1 4 1 1.3 2014 2 3 1 1 4 1 1.8 2015 2 3 2 2 4 2 2.6 2016 2 3 2 2 4 2 4

  3. Study of Information and Communication Technology (ICT maturity and value: The relationship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Godspower O. Ekuobase

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available A key challenge within the service industry is how the benefits from ICT adoption and diffusion (ICT value relate to the degree of adoption and diffusion of ICT (ICT maturity. This challenge has resulted in the uncertainty of value generation from investments on ICT leading to ICT mis-planning and disaster. This paper unraveled this uncertainty by measuring the ICT maturity and value of service firms listed in the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE and established the relationship between them. The Value Added Intellectual Coefficient (VAIC model was adopted to measure the value of ICT in the service firms while the ICT Maturity model of Small-and-Medium Enterprises (SMEs was used to measure their ICT maturity. The relationship between these two service variables was established by correlation analysis. The result showed that the Nigeria service industry is comfortably web based in ICT maturity with an index of about 0.76. The ICT value index was estimated to be about 4.60, an indication that ICT’s potentials are not effectively utilized in Nigeria for service delivery. The final analysis showed that, there is a negative-weak correlation between ICT maturity and ICT Value in the Nigeria service industry. This shows that the benefit from ICT adoption and diffusion is not traceable to the degree of ICT adoption and diffusion in the service industry.

  4. Technology data characterizing space conditioning in commercial buildings: Application to end-use forecasting with COMMEND 4.0

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sezgen, O.; Franconi, E.M.; Koomey, J.G.; Greenberg, S.E.; Afzal, A.; Shown, L.

    1995-12-01

    In the US, energy consumption is increasing most rapidly in the commercial sector. Consequently, the commercial sector is becoming an increasingly important target for state and federal energy policies and also for utility-sponsored demand side management (DSM) programs. The rapid growth in commercial-sector energy consumption also makes it important for analysts working on energy policy and DSM issues to have access to energy end-use forecasting models that include more detailed representations of energy-using technologies in the commercial sector. These new forecasting models disaggregate energy consumption not only by fuel type, end use, and building type, but also by specific technology. The disaggregation of space conditioning end uses in terms of specific technologies is complicated by several factors. First, the number of configurations of heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems and heating and cooling plants is very large. Second, the properties of the building envelope are an integral part of a building`s HVAC energy consumption characteristics. Third, the characteristics of commercial buildings vary greatly by building type. The Electric Power Research Institute`s (EPRI`s) Commercial End-Use Planning System (COMMEND 4.0) and the associated data development presented in this report attempt to address the above complications and create a consistent forecasting framework. This report describes the process by which the authors collected space-conditioning technology data and then mapped it into the COMMEND 4.0 input format. The data are also generally applicable to other end-use forecasting frameworks for the commercial sector.

  5. An Application of Technological Maturity Assessment to ROKAF T-50 Aircraft Production Program

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Maeng, Honjae

    2005-01-01

    .... This methodology relies on three sets of knowledge namely technology design and production. In particular the technology dimension is measured by Technology Readiness Level (TRL) as defined by NASA...

  6. Particle-Reinforced Aluminum Matrix Composites (AMCs—Selected Results of an Integrated Technology, User, and Market Analysis and Forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anja Schmidt

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The research and development of new materials such as particle-reinforced aluminum matrix composites (AMCs will only result in a successful innovation if these materials show significant advantages not only from a technological, but also from an economic point of view. Against this background, in the Collaborative Research Center SFB 692, the concept of an integrated technology, user, and market analysis and forecast has been developed as a means for assessing the technological and commercial potential of new materials in early life cycle stages. After briefly describing this concept, it is applied to AMCs and the potential field of manufacturing aircraft components. Results show not only technological advances, but also considerable economic potential—the latter one primarily resulting from the possible weight reduction being enabled by the increased yield strength of the new material.

  7. Technology data characterizing lighting in commercial buildings: Application to end-use forecasting with commend 4.0

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sezgen, A.O.; Huang, Y.J.; Atkinson, B.A.; Eto, J.H.; Koomey, J.G.

    1994-05-01

    End-use forecasting models typically utilize technology tradeoff curves to represent technology options available to consumers. A tradeoff curve, in general terms, is a functional form which relates efficiency to capital cost. Each end-use is modeled by a single tradeoff curve. This type of representation is satisfactory in the analysis of many policy options. On the other hand, for policies addressing individual technology options or groups of technology options, because individual technology options are accessible to the analyst, representation in such reduced form is not satisfactory. To address this and other analysis needs, the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) has enhanced its Commercial End-Use Planning System (COMMEND) to allow modeling of specific lighting and space conditioning (HVAC) technology options. This report characterizes the present commercial floorstock in terms of lighting technologies and develops cost-efficiency data for these lighting technologies. This report also characterizes the interactions between the lighting and space conditioning end uses in commercial buildings in the US In general, lighting energy reductions increase the heating and decrease the cooling requirements. The net change in a building`s energy requirements, however, depends on the building characteristics, operating conditions, and the climate. Lighting/HVAC interactions data were generated through computer simulations using the DOE-2 building energy analysis program.

  8. Adaptive Opportunistic Cooperative Control Mechanism Based on Combination Forecasting and Multilevel Sensing Technology of Sensors for Mobile Internet of Things

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yong Jin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In mobile Internet of Things, there are many challenges, including sensing technology of sensors, how and when to join cooperative transmission, and how to select the cooperative sensors. To address these problems, we studied the combination forecasting based on the multilevel sensing technology of sensors, building upon which we proposed the adaptive opportunistic cooperative control mechanism based on the threshold values such as activity probability, distance, transmitting power, and number of relay sensors, in consideration of signal to noise ratio and outage probability. More importantly, the relay sensors would do self-test real time in order to judge whether to join the cooperative transmission, for maintaining the optimal cooperative transmission state with high performance. The mathematical analyses results show that the proposed adaptive opportunistic cooperative control approach could perform better in terms of throughput ratio, packet error rate and delay, and energy efficiency, compared with the direct transmission and opportunistic cooperative approaches.

  9. The Effect of Path-Dependence and Uncertainty on the Value of Mature Technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alkærsig, Lars; Beukel, Karin; Lauto, Giancarlo

    2017-01-01

    technology, the paper finds that both rare and widespread capabilities are valuable to the invention process, thereby suggesting that both path-dependent and path-creating strategies are beneficial for technological development. The paper shows that uncertainty has an inverted U-shaped effect on invention...... development by recombining in novel ways the capabilities that are widespread in the field, or by building novel and rare capabilities. The paper also conceptualises how technological uncertainty affects the value of such capabilities. Using patent data from 1977 to 2007 for firms developing the hydrocracking...... value. In particular, under conditions of low uncertainty, path-dependent capabilities tend to be more valuable....

  10. Using Enabling Technologies to Facilitate the Comparison of Satellite Observations with the Model Forecasts for Hurricane Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, P.; Knosp, B.; Hristova-Veleva, S. M.; Niamsuwan, N.; Johnson, M. P.; Shen, T. P. J.; Tanelli, S.; Turk, J.; Vu, Q. A.

    2014-12-01

    Due to their complexity and volume, the satellite data are underutilized in today's hurricane research and operations. To better utilize these data, we developed the JPL Tropical Cyclone Information System (TCIS) - an Interactive Data Portal providing fusion between Near-Real-Time satellite observations and model forecasts to facilitate model evaluation and improvement. We have collected satellite observations and model forecasts in the Atlantic Basin and the East Pacific for the hurricane seasons since 2010 and supported the NASA Airborne Campaigns for Hurricane Study such as the Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) in 2010 and the Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) from 2012 to 2014. To enable the direct inter-comparisons of the satellite observations and the model forecasts, the TCIS was integrated with the NASA Earth Observing System Simulator Suite (NEOS3) to produce synthetic observations (e.g. simulated passive microwave brightness temperatures) from a number of operational hurricane forecast models (HWRF and GFS). An automated process was developed to trigger NEOS3 simulations via web services given the location and time of satellite observations, monitor the progress of the NEOS3 simulations, display the synthetic observation and ingest them into the TCIS database when they are done. In addition, three analysis tools, the joint PDF analysis of the brightness temperatures, ARCHER for finding the storm-center and the storm organization and the Wave Number Analysis tool for storm asymmetry and morphology analysis were integrated into TCIS to provide statistical and structural analysis on both observed and synthetic data. Interactive tools were built in the TCIS visualization system to allow the spatial and temporal selections of the datasets, the invocation of the tools with user specified parameters, and the display and the delivery of the results. In this presentation, we will describe the key enabling technologies behind the design of

  11. Heatshield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology (HEEET) Development and Maturation Status for NF Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellerby, D.; Blosser, M.; Boghozian, T.; Chavez-Garcia, J.; Chinnapongse, R.; Fowler, M.; Gage, P.; Gasch, M.; Gonzales, G.; Hamm, K.; hide

    2016-01-01

    This poster provides an overview of the requirements, design, development and testing of the 3D Woven TPS being developed under NASA's Heatshield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology (HEEET) project. Under this current program, NASA is working to develop a Thermal Protection System (TPS) capable of surviving entry into Saturn. A primary goal of the project is to build and test an Engineering Test Unit (ETU) to establish a Technical Readiness Level (TRL) of 6 for this technology by 2017.

  12. Heatshield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology (HEEET) Development and Maturation Status

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellerby, D.; Boghozian, T.; Driver, D.; Chavez-Garcia, J.; Fowler, M.; Gage, P.; Gasch, M.; Gonzales, G.; Kazemba, C.; Kellermann, C.; hide

    2018-01-01

    This poster provides an overview of the requirements, design, development and testing of the 3D (Three Dimensional) Woven TPS (Thermal Protection System) being developed under NASA's Heatshield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology (HEEET) project. Under this current program, NASA is working to develop a TPS capable of surviving entry into Saturn. A primary goal of the project is to build and test an Engineering Test Unit (ETU) to establish a Technical Readiness Level (TRL) of 6 for this technology by 2017.

  13. A Novel Method for Technology Forecasting and Developing R&D Strategy of Building Integrated Photovoltaic Technology Industry

    OpenAIRE

    Chiu, Yu-Jing; Ying, Tao-Ming

    2012-01-01

    Because of global warming, renewable energy technologies have become more essential currently, with solar energy technology advancing worldwide. Therefore, interdisciplinary integration is an important trend, and building-integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) is an emerging technology involving the photovoltaic and building fields. The purpose of this study is to understand the technology evolution of BIPV and to determine the R&D planning direction. This paper proposes a hybrid approach to explore ...

  14. Blockchain and Smart Contracts for Insurance: Is the Technology Mature Enough?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valentina Gatteschi

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Blockchain is receiving increasing attention from academy and industry, since it is considered a breakthrough technology that could bring huge benefits to many different sectors. In 2017, Gartner positioned blockchain close to the peak of inflated expectations, acknowledging the enthusiasm for this technology that is now largely discussed by media. In this scenario, the risk to adopt it in the wake of enthusiasm, without objectively judging its actual added value is rather high. Insurance is one the sectors that, among others, started to carefully investigate the possibilities of blockchain. For this specific sector, however, the hype cycle shows that the technology is still in the innovation trigger phase, meaning that the spectrum of possible applications has not been fully explored yet. Insurers, as with many other companies not necessarily active only in the financial sector, are currently requested to make a hard decision, that is, whether to adopt blockchain or not, and they will only know if they were right in 3–5 years. The objective of this paper is to support actors involved in this decision process by illustrating what a blockchain is, analyzing its advantages and disadvantages, as well as discussing several use cases taken from the insurance sector, which could easily be extended to other domains.

  15. Project Morpheus: Lean Development of a Terrestrial Flight Testbed for Maturing NASA Lander Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devolites, Jennifer L.; Olansen, Jon B.

    2015-01-01

    NASA's Morpheus Project has developed and tested a prototype planetary lander capable of vertical takeoff and landing that is designed to serve as a testbed for advanced spacecraft technologies. The lander vehicle, propelled by a Liquid Oxygen (LOX)/Methane engine and sized to carry a 500kg payload to the lunar surface, provides a platform for bringing technologies from the laboratory into an integrated flight system at relatively low cost. In 2012, Morpheus began integrating the Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance Technology (ALHAT) sensors and software onto the vehicle in order to demonstrate safe, autonomous landing and hazard avoidance. From the beginning, one of goals for the Morpheus Project was to streamline agency processes and practices. The Morpheus project accepted a challenge to tailor the traditional NASA systems engineering approach in a way that would be appropriate for a lower cost, rapid prototype engineering effort, but retain the essence of the guiding principles. This paper describes the tailored project life cycle and systems engineering approach for the Morpheus project, including the processes, tools, and amount of rigor employed over the project's multiple lifecycles since the project began in fiscal year (FY) 2011.

  16. TwinFocus, a concentrated photovoltaic module based on mature technologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonini Piergiorgio

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Among solar power generation, concentrated photovoltaics (CPV based on multijunction (MJ solar cells, is one of the most promising technology for hot climates. The fact that multijunction solar cells based on direct band gap semiconductors demonstrate lower dependence on temperature than silicon solar cells boosted their use in concentrated photovoltaics modules. Departing from the mainstream design of Fresnel lenses, the CPV module based on TwinFocus design with off-axis quasi parabolic mirrors differentiates itself for its compactness and the possibility of easy integration also in roof-top applications. A detailed description of the module and of the systems will be given together with measured performances, and expectations for the next release.

  17. FULL SCALE TESTING TECHNOLOGY MATURATION OF A THIN FILM EVAPORATOR FOR HIGH-LEVEL LIQUID WASTE MANAGEMENT AT HANFORD - 12125

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    TEDESCHI AR; CORBETT JE; WILSON RA; LARKIN J

    2012-01-26

    Simulant testing of a full-scale thin-film evaporator system was conducted in 2011 for technology development at the Hanford tank farms. Test results met objectives of water removal rate, effluent quality, and operational evaluation. Dilute tank waste simulant, representing a typical double-shell tank supernatant liquid layer, was concentrated from a 1.1 specific gravity to approximately 1.5 using a 4.6 m{sup 2} (50 ft{sup 2}) heated transfer area Rototherm{reg_sign} evaporator from Artisan Industries. The condensed evaporator vapor stream was collected and sampled validating efficient separation of the water. An overall decontamination factor of 1.2E+06 was achieved demonstrating excellent retention of key radioactive species within the concentrated liquid stream. The evaporator system was supported by a modular steam supply, chiller, and control computer systems which would be typically implemented at the tank farms. Operation of these support systems demonstrated successful integration while identifying areas for efficiency improvement. Overall testing effort increased the maturation of this technology to support final deployment design and continued project implementation.

  18. Application of Neural Network Technologies for Price Forecasting in the Liberalized Electricity Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerikh, Valentin; Kolosok, Irina; Kurbatsky, Victor; Tomin, Nikita

    2009-01-01

    The paper presents the results of experimental studies concerning calculation of electricity prices in different price zones in Russia and Europe. The calculations are based on the intelligent software "ANAPRO" that implements the approaches based on the modern methods of data analysis and artificial intelligence technologies.

  19. Current and Potential Use of Technology Forecasting Tools in the Federal Government

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-01

    emerging technologies, cost factors, and economic and policy implications. The manual process relies on literature reviews by librarians and...discussed in more detail as a case study in Appendix D. In the Healthcare Horizon Scanning System, medical librarians scan publicly available sources such...collaborations between academic and industrial scientists are highlighted could be used to help analysts identify researchers and innovations to track. 3

  20. Assessing the accuracy of forecasting: applying standard diagnostic assessment tools to a health technology early warning system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, Sue; Hyde, Chris; Cook, Alison; Packer, Claire; Stevens, Andrew

    2004-01-01

    Early warning systems are an integral part of many health technology assessment programs. Despite this finding, to date, there have been no quantitative evaluations of the accuracy of predictions made by these systems. We report a study evaluating the accuracy of predictions made by the main United Kingdom early warning system. As prediction of impact is analogous to diagnosis, a method normally applied to determine the accuracy of diagnostic tests was used. The sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of the National Horizon Scanning Centre's prediction methods were estimated with reference to an (imperfect) gold standard, that is, expert opinion of impact 3 to 5 years after prediction. The sensitivity of predictions was 71 percent (95 percent confidence interval [CI], 0.36-0.92), and the specificity was 73 percent (95 percent CI, 0.64-0.8). The negative predictive value was 98 percent (95 percent CI, 0.92-0.99), and the positive predictive value was 14 percent (95 percent CI, 0.06-0.3). Forecasting is difficult, but the results suggest that this early warning system's predictions have an acceptable level of accuracy. However, there are caveats. The first is that early warning systems may themselves reduce the impact of a technology, as helping to control adoption and diffusion is their main purpose. The second is that the use of an imperfect gold standard may bias the results. As early warning systems are viewed as an increasingly important component of health technology assessment and decision making, their outcomes must be evaluated. The method used here should be investigated further and the accuracy of other early warning systems explored.

  1. Forecasting Skill

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-01-01

    indicated that forecasting experience has little relationship to forecasting performance. In the latter three studies, neophyte forecasters became... Europe . Within a few months after a new commander was assigned, this unit’s performance rose to first place in the theater and remained there

  2. Multidisciplinary studies of the social, economic and political impact resulting from recent advances in satellite meteorology. Volume 6: Executive summary. [technological forecasting spacecraft control/attitude (inclination) -classical mechanics

    Science.gov (United States)

    1975-01-01

    An assessment of the technological impact of modern satellite weather forecasting for the United States is presented. Topics discussed are: (1) television broadcasting of weather; (2) agriculture (crop production); (3) water resources; (4) urban development; (5) recreation; and (6) transportation.

  3. Identification of the actual state and entity availability forecasting in power engineering using neural-network technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Protalinsky, O. M.; Shcherbatov, I. A.; Stepanov, P. V.

    2017-11-01

    A growing number of severe accidents in RF call for the need to develop a system that could prevent emergency situations. In a number of cases accident rate is stipulated by careless inspections and neglects in developing repair programs. Across the country rates of accidents are growing because of a so-called “human factor”. In this regard, there has become urgent the problem of identification of the actual state of technological facilities in power engineering using data on engineering processes running and applying artificial intelligence methods. The present work comprises four model states of manufacturing equipment of engineering companies: defect, failure, preliminary situation, accident. Defect evaluation is carried out using both data from SCADA and ASEPCR and qualitative information (verbal assessments of experts in subject matter, photo- and video materials of surveys processed using pattern recognition methods in order to satisfy the requirements). Early identification of defects makes possible to predict the failure of manufacturing equipment using mathematical techniques of artificial neural network. In its turn, this helps to calculate predicted characteristics of reliability of engineering facilities using methods of reliability theory. Calculation of the given parameters provides the real-time estimation of remaining service life of manufacturing equipment for the whole operation period. The neural networks model allows evaluating possibility of failure of a piece of equipment consistent with types of actual defects and their previous reasons. The article presents the grounds for a choice of training and testing samples for the developed neural network, evaluates the adequacy of the neural networks model, and shows how the model can be used to forecast equipment failure. There have been carried out simulating experiments using a computer and retrospective samples of actual values for power engineering companies. The efficiency of the developed

  4. LOX Gene Transcript Accumulation in Olive (Olea europaea L. Fruits at Different Stages of Maturation: Relationship between Volatile Compounds, Environmental Factors, and Technological Treatments for Oil Extraction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Innocenzo Muzzalupo

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The quality of olive oil is influenced by genetic and environmental factors and by the maturation state of drupes, but it is equally affected by technological treatments of the process. This work investigates the possible correlation between olive LOX gene transcript accumulation, evaluated in fruits collected at different stages of maturation, and chemical biomarkers of its activity. During olive fruit ripening, the same genotype harvested from two different farms shows a positive linear trend between LOX relative transcript accumulation and the content of volatile compounds present in the olive oil aroma. Interestingly, a negative linear trend was observed between LOX relative transcript accumulation and the content of volatile compounds present in the olive pastes obtained from olive fruits with and without malaxation. The changes in the olive LOX transcript accumulation reveal its environmental regulation and suggest differential physiological functions for the LOXs.

  5. Environmental management maturity of local and multinational high-technology corporations located in Brazil: the role of business internationalization in pollution prevention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanna Maialle

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract This paper identifies and characterizes the environmental maturity level of local and multinational high-technology corporations located in Brazil. This characterization is achieved by discussing the adoption of environmental management practices and considering aspects of the productive process stage. An eight-case study was conducted through data triangulation using interviews with employees in diverse organizational areas, direct observations and secondary data. The results indicate the differences in environmental positioning among the studied corporations with a predominance of preventive practices, i.e., an emphasis on eco-efficiency and compliance with legislation. It was also noted that environmental concerns in the corporations are related to internationalization and, in some cases, to the pressure exerted by corporations that represent the brand of the products produced in Brazil. Moreover, the adoption of environmental practices based on the productive process stage supported the environmental maturity classifications of the studied companies.

  6. LOX Gene transcript accumulation in olive (Olea europaea L.) fruits at different stages of maturation: relationship between volatile compounds, environmental factors, and technological treatments for oil extraction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muzzalupo, Innocenzo; Macchione, Barbara; Bucci, Cristina; Stefanizzi, Francesca; Perri, Enzo; Chiappetta, Adriana; Tagarelli, Antonio; Sindona, Giovanni

    2012-01-01

    The quality of olive oil is influenced by genetic and environmental factors and by the maturation state of drupes, but it is equally affected by technological treatments of the process. This work investigates the possible correlation between olive LOX gene transcript accumulation, evaluated in fruits collected at different stages of maturation, and chemical biomarkers of its activity. During olive fruit ripening, the same genotype harvested from two different farms shows a positive linear trend between LOX relative transcript accumulation and the content of volatile compounds present in the olive oil aroma. Interestingly, a negative linear trend was observed between LOX relative transcript accumulation and the content of volatile compounds present in the olive pastes obtained from olive fruits with and without malaxation. The changes in the olive LOX transcript accumulation reveal its environmental regulation and suggest differential physiological functions for the LOXs.

  7. Forecasting Interest Rates and Inflation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chun, Albert Lee

    the best overall for short horizon forecasts of short to medium term yields and inflation. Econometric models with shrinkage perform the best over longer horizons and maturities. Aggregating over a larger set of analysts improves inflation surveys while generally degrading interest rates surveys. We...

  8. Maturity Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lasrado, Lester Allan; Vatrapu, Ravi

    2016-01-01

    effects, unicausal reduction, and case specificity. Based on the developments in set theoretical thinking in social sciences and employing methods like Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA), Necessary Condition Analysis (NCA), and set visualization techniques, in this position paper, we propose...... and demonstrate a new approach to maturity models in the domain of Information Systems. This position paper describes the set-theoretical approach to maturity models, presents current results and outlines future research work....

  9. State of the art and taxonomy of prognostics approaches, trends of prognostics applications and open issues towards maturity at different technology readiness levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Javed, Kamran; Gouriveau, Rafael; Zerhouni, Noureddine

    2017-09-01

    Integrating prognostics to a real application requires a certain maturity level and for this reason there is a lack of success stories about development of a complete Prognostics and Health Management system. In fact, the maturity of prognostics is closely linked to data and domain specific entities like modeling. Basically, prognostics task aims at predicting the degradation of engineering assets. However, practically it is not possible to precisely predict the impending failure, which requires a thorough understanding to encounter different sources of uncertainty that affect prognostics. Therefore, different aspects crucial to the prognostics framework, i.e., from monitoring data to remaining useful life of equipment need to be addressed. To this aim, the paper contributes to state of the art and taxonomy of prognostics approaches and their application perspectives. In addition, factors for prognostics approach selection are identified, and new case studies from component-system level are discussed. Moreover, open challenges toward maturity of the prognostics under uncertainty are highlighted and scheme for an efficient prognostics approach is presented. Finally, the existing challenges for verification and validation of prognostics at different technology readiness levels are discussed with respect to open challenges.

  10. Swingbed Amine Carbon Dioxide Removal Flight Experiment - Feasibility Study and Concept Development for Cost-Effective Exploration Technology Maturation on The International Space Station

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodgson, Edward; Papale, William; Nalette, Timothy; Graf, John; Sweterlitsch, Jeffery; Hayley, Elizabeth; Williams, Antony; Button, Amy

    2011-01-01

    The completion of International Space Station Assembly and transition to a full six person crew has created the opportunity to create and implement flight experiments that will drive down the ultimate risks and cost for human space exploration by maturing exploration technologies in realistic space environments that are impossible or incredibly costly to duplicate in terrestrial laboratories. An early opportunity for such a technology maturation experiment was recognized in the amine swingbed technology baselined for carbon dioxide and humidity control on the Orion spacecraft and Constellation Spacesuit System. An experiment concept using an existing high fidelity laboratory swing bed prototype has been evaluated in a feasibility and concept definition study leading to the conclusion that the envisioned flight experiment can be both feasible and of significant value for NASA s space exploration technology development efforts. Based on the results of that study NASA has proceeded with detailed design and implementation for the flight experiment. The study effort included the evaluation of technology risks, the extent to which ISS provided unique opportunities to understand them, and the implications of the resulting targeted risks for the experiment design and operational parameters. Based on those objectives and characteristics, ISS safety and integration requirements were examined, experiment concepts developed to address them and their feasibility assessed. This paper will describe the analysis effort and conclusions and present the resulting flight experiment concept. The flight experiment, implemented by NASA and launched in two packages in January and August 2011, integrates the swing bed with supporting elements including electrical power and controls, sensors, cooling, heating, fans, air- and water-conserving functionality, and mechanical packaging structure. It is now on board the ISS awaiting installation and activation.

  11. Strategic Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    as a rebirth of long range planning, albeit with new methods and theories. Firms should make the building of strategic forecasting capability a priority. Research limitations/implications: The article subdivides strategic forecasting into three research avenues and suggests avenues for further research efforts......Purpose: The purpose of this article is to present an overview of the area of strategic forecasting and its research directions and to put forward some ideas for improving management decisions. Design/methodology/approach: This article is conceptual but also informed by the author’s long contact...... and collaboration with various business firms. It starts by presenting an overview of the area and argues that the area is as much a way of thinking as a toolbox of theories and methodologies. It then spells out a number of research directions and ideas for management. Findings: Strategic forecasting is seen...

  12. Exposure Forecaster

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Exposure Forecaster Database (ExpoCastDB) is EPA's database for aggregating chemical exposure information and can be used to help with chemical exposure...

  13. Adapting a Markov Monte Carlo simulation model for forecasting the number of Coronary Artery Revascularisation Procedures in an era of rapidly changing technology and policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Knuiman Matthew

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Treatments for coronary heart disease (CHD have evolved rapidly over the last 15 years with considerable change in the number and effectiveness of both medical and surgical treatments. This period has seen the rapid development and uptake of statin drugs and coronary artery revascularization procedures (CARPs that include Coronary Artery Bypass Graft procedures (CABGs and Percutaneous Coronary Interventions (PCIs. It is difficult in an era of such rapid change to accurately forecast requirements for treatment services such as CARPs. In a previous paper we have described and outlined the use of a Markov Monte Carlo simulation model for analyzing and predicting the requirements for CARPs for the population of Western Australia (Mannan et al, 2007. In this paper, we expand on the use of this model for forecasting CARPs in Western Australia with a focus on the lack of adequate performance of the (standard model for forecasting CARPs in a period during the mid 1990s when there were considerable changes to CARP technology and implementation policy and an exploration and demonstration of how the standard model may be adapted to achieve better performance. Methods Selected key CARP event model probabilities are modified based on information relating to changes in the effectiveness of CARPs from clinical trial evidence and an awareness of trends in policy and practice of CARPs. These modified model probabilities and the ones obtained by standard methods are used as inputs in our Markov simulation model. Results The projected numbers of CARPs in the population of Western Australia over 1995–99 only improve marginally when modifications to model probabilities are made to incorporate an increase in effectiveness of PCI procedures. However, the projected numbers improve substantially when, in addition, further modifications are incorporated that relate to the increased probability of a PCI procedure and the reduced probability of a CABG

  14. Adapting a Markov Monte Carlo simulation model for forecasting the number of coronary artery revascularisation procedures in an era of rapidly changing technology and policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mannan, Haider R; Knuiman, Matthew; Hobbs, Michael

    2008-06-25

    Treatments for coronary heart disease (CHD) have evolved rapidly over the last 15 years with considerable change in the number and effectiveness of both medical and surgical treatments. This period has seen the rapid development and uptake of statin drugs and coronary artery revascularization procedures (CARPs) that include Coronary Artery Bypass Graft procedures (CABGs) and Percutaneous Coronary Interventions (PCIs). It is difficult in an era of such rapid change to accurately forecast requirements for treatment services such as CARPs. In a previous paper we have described and outlined the use of a Markov Monte Carlo simulation model for analyzing and predicting the requirements for CARPs for the population of Western Australia (Mannan et al, 2007). In this paper, we expand on the use of this model for forecasting CARPs in Western Australia with a focus on the lack of adequate performance of the (standard) model for forecasting CARPs in a period during the mid 1990s when there were considerable changes to CARP technology and implementation policy and an exploration and demonstration of how the standard model may be adapted to achieve better performance. Selected key CARP event model probabilities are modified based on information relating to changes in the effectiveness of CARPs from clinical trial evidence and an awareness of trends in policy and practice of CARPs. These modified model probabilities and the ones obtained by standard methods are used as inputs in our Markov simulation model. The projected numbers of CARPs in the population of Western Australia over 1995-99 only improve marginally when modifications to model probabilities are made to incorporate an increase in effectiveness of PCI procedures. However, the projected numbers improve substantially when, in addition, further modifications are incorporated that relate to the increased probability of a PCI procedure and the reduced probability of a CABG procedure stemming from changed CARP preference

  15. Forecasting metal prices: Do forecasters herd?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pierdzioch, C.; Rulke, J. C.; Stadtmann, G.

    2013-01-01

    We analyze more than 20,000 forecasts of nine metal prices at four different forecast horizons. We document that forecasts are heterogeneous and report that anti-herding appears to be a source of this heterogeneity. Forecaster anti-herding reflects strategic interactions among forecasters...

  16. Energy demand forecasting method based on international statistical data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glanc, Z.; Kerner, A.

    1997-01-01

    Poland is in a transition phase from a centrally planned to a market economy; data collected under former economic conditions do not reflect a market economy. Final energy demand forecasts are based on the assumption that the economic transformation in Poland will gradually lead the Polish economy, technologies and modes of energy use, to the same conditions as mature market economy countries. The starting point has a significant influence on the future energy demand and supply structure: final energy consumption per capita in 1992 was almost half the average of OECD countries; energy intensity, based on Purchasing Power Parities (PPP) and referred to GDP, is more than 3 times higher in Poland. A method of final energy demand forecasting based on regression analysis is described in this paper. The input data are: output of macroeconomic and population growth forecast; time series 1970-1992 of OECD countries concerning both macroeconomic characteristics and energy consumption; and energy balance of Poland for the base year of the forecast horizon. (author). 1 ref., 19 figs, 4 tabs

  17. Evaluation of official tropical cyclone track forecast over north Indian ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    information on overall forecast performance and the relative .... pret the track forecast properly and decide effec- tive cyclone management response actions by the disaster managers. To determine the COU in track forecast, it is essential to know the track forecast ..... ing 140 km based on the latest technology includ-.

  18. The Necessity of Formation of Health Information Technology: Goals and Strategies for the Future of the Healthcare with the Approach of Maturity Assessment and Risk Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hossein Moinzad

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the goal of the effort is to determine the future of healthcare and to explain the importance of establishing strategic roadmap in this area. Identification of strategies for future of healthcare includes adaptive and dynamic learning through the industry, governments, and universities. The most important part in generating strategies is to determine the goals with high levels expectations and exclusive path. Healthcare technology goals which are presented in this paper could be inspiring to make a better future. Future developments of medical and health care depend on investing in research, development, and education today. So that health managers achieve goals of the health care system by making appropriate decisions and allocate resources. With appropriate goals and strategies, risk, maturity and reliability level of HIT system could be calculated by using COBIT and best scorecard (BSC method.

  19. Interactive Forecasting with the National Weather Service River Forecast System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, George F.; Page, Donna

    1993-01-01

    The National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) consists of several major hydrometeorologic subcomponents to model the physics of the flow of water through the hydrologic cycle. The entire NWSRFS currently runs in both mainframe and minicomputer environments, using command oriented text input to control the system computations. As computationally powerful and graphically sophisticated scientific workstations became available, the National Weather Service (NWS) recognized that a graphically based, interactive environment would enhance the accuracy and timeliness of NWS river and flood forecasts. Consequently, the operational forecasting portion of the NWSRFS has been ported to run under a UNIX operating system, with X windows as the display environment on a system of networked scientific workstations. In addition, the NWSRFS Interactive Forecast Program was developed to provide a graphical user interface to allow the forecaster to control NWSRFS program flow and to make adjustments to forecasts as necessary. The potential market for water resources forecasting is immense and largely untapped. Any private company able to market the river forecasting technologies currently developed by the NWS Office of Hydrology could provide benefits to many information users and profit from providing these services.

  20. A mature industrial solution for ITER divertor plasma facing components: hypervapotron cooling concept adapted to Tore Supra flat tile technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Escourbiac, F.; Missirlian, M.; Schlosser, J.; Bobin-Vastra, I.; Kuznetsov, V.; Schedler, B.

    2004-01-01

    The use of flat tile technology to handle heat fluxes in the range of 20 MW/m 2 with components relevant for fusion experiment applications is technically possible with the hypervapotron cooling concept. This paper deals with recent high heat flux performances operated with success on 2 identical mock-ups, based on this concept, that were tested in 2 different electron gun facilities. Each mock-up consisted of a CuCrZr heat sink armored with 25 flat tiles of the 3D carbon fibre composite material SEPcarb NS31 assembled with pure copper by active metal casting (AMC). The AMC tiles were electron beam welded on the CuCrZr bar, fins and slots on the neutral beam JET design were machined into the bar, then the bar was closed with a thick CuCrZr rear plug including hydraulic connections then the bar was electron beam welded onto the sidewalls. The testing results show that full ITER design specifications were achieved with margins, the critical heat flux limit was even higher than 30 MW/m 2 . These results highlight the high potential of this technology for ITER divertor application

  1. Full-Scale Testing Technology Maturation Of A Thin Film Evaporator For High-Level Liquid Waste Management At Hanford - 12125

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tedeschi, A.R.; Corbett, J.E.; Wilson, R.A.; Larkin, J.

    2012-01-01

    Simulant testing of a full-scale thin-film evaporator system was conducted in 2011 for technology development at the Hanford tank farms. Test results met objectives of water removal rate, effluent quality, and operational evaluation. Dilute tank waste simulant, representing a typical double-shell tank supernatant liquid layer, was concentrated from a 1.1 specific gravity to approximately 1.5 using a 4.6 m 2 (50 ft 2 ) heated transfer area Rototherm(reg s ign) evaporator from Artisan Industries. The condensed evaporator vapor stream was collected and sampled validating efficient separation of the water. An overall decontamination factor of 1.2E+06 was achieved demonstrating excellent retention of key radioactive species within the concentrated liquid stream. The evaporator system was supported by a modular steam supply, chiller, and control computer systems which would be typically implemented at the tank farms. Operation of these support systems demonstrated successful integration while identifying areas for efficiency improvement. Overall testing effort increased the maturation of this technology to support final deployment design and continued project implementation.

  2. Selection of dominant NSLAB from a mature traditional cheese according to their technological properties and in vitro intestinal challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papanikolaou, Zacharias; Hatzikamari, Magdalini; Georgakopoulos, Panayiotis; Yiangou, Minas; Litopoulou-Tzanetaki, Evanthia; Tzanetakis, Nikolaos

    2012-05-01

    Isolates (47) of lactobacilli from 5 different productions of Melichloro cheese were examined for potential use as adjunct cultures. The sodium dodecyl sulfate-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (SDS-PAGE) of whole-cell proteins classified 29 isolates as L. paraplantarum and 18 as L. paracasei subsp. paracasei. Randomly amplified polymorphic DNA-polymerase chain reaction (RAPD-PCR) analysis differentiated the L. paraplantarum and L. paracasei subsp. paracasei isolates at strain level and both, RAPD analysis and whole-cell protein profiling provided useful information about the diversity of nonstarter lactic acid bacteria (NSLAB) in the different cheese productions. The isolates were slow acidifiers and about 70% of them degraded, preferentially α(s)-casein. The amounts of amino acids accumulated in the milk increased with the incubation time. A similar enzyme profile was exhibited by strains of both species, except for α-mannosidase and α-fucosidase, which were not detected in the L. paracasei subsp. paracasei strains. All strains grew in the presence of bile at 0.3% and the majority was able to withstand pH 2.5 and pancreatin at 0.1%. Moreover, all strains reduced cholesterol in vitro, with higher removal ability recorded for strains of L. paraplantarum. A narrow spectrum of antibacterial activity was recorded for 88% of the strains. Selected isolates with appropriate technological and interesting in vitro intestinal challenges could be used as adjuncts and deserve further studies. © 2012 Institute of Food Technologists®

  3. Game Maturity Model for Health Care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Boer, Jan C; Adriani, Paul; van Houwelingen, Jan Willem; Geerts, A

    2016-04-01

    This article introduces the Game Maturity Model for the healthcare industry as an extension to the general Game Maturity Model and describes the usage by two case studies of applied health games. The Game Maturity Model for healthcare provides a practical and value-adding method to assess existing games and to determine strategic considerations for application of applied health games. Our forecast is that within 5 years the use and development of applied games will have a role in our daily lives and the way we organize health care that will be similar to the role social media has today.

  4. Methylation changes in mature sperm deoxyribonucleic acid from oligozoospermic men: assessment of genetic variants and assisted reproductive technology outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montjean, Debbie; Ravel, Célia; Benkhalifa, Moncef; Cohen-Bacrie, Paul; Berthaut, Isabelle; Bashamboo, Anu; McElreavey, Kenneth

    2013-11-01

    To characterize a potential genetic cause for methylation errors described in oligozoospermia. Analysis of PEG1/MEST-DMR and H19-DMR methylation level in sperm, in parallel with the study of several genes on the Y chromosome, DNMT3A, and DNMT3L. Clinical outcome was also looked at regarding PEG1/MEST-DMR and H19-DMR methylation level in sperm. Research and diagnostic laboratories. One hundred nineteen normospermic and 175 oligozoospermic men consulting for couple infertility. We studied PEG1/MEST-DMR and H19-DMR methylation profiles in 294 men. We searched for Y chromosome gene aberrations and for mutations in both DNMT3A and DNMT3L genes in men showing epimutations. Assisted reproductive technology (ART) outcomes were also investigated. Sperm samples were collected from 294 volunteers for genomic DNA isolation that was used to study methylation profiles in imprinted loci and Y chromosome SMCY, DNMT3A, and DNMT3L genes. Pregnancy rate was also studied after ART treatment using sperm showing epimutations. Epimutations in H19-DMR and PEG1/MEST-DMR were found in 20% and 3% of oligozoospermic men, respectively. We identified an amino acid change in DNMT3A in one case and in DNMT3L in eight men with altered methylation profiles. No mutations were detected in SMCY or in selected Y chromsome genes. No correlation between ART outcome and epimutations was found. We observed epimethylations in spermatozoa of oligozoospermic individuals, but no association was found with genetic variants or in the ART outcome. Copyright © 2013 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Funding of energy research: BMFT expenditures for energy research and energy technologies, 3rd program, a review and a forecast

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacke, S.

    1990-01-01

    Between the early sixties and late 1989, the German Federal Government spent some DM 23 billion to support research and development of the entire field of nuclear technology (such as fundamental research, industrial applications, medicine, safety technology, advanced energy systems) in the Federal Republic of Germany. Of this amount, approx. DM 11 billion was spent on the technology of nuclear power plants equipped with light water reactors, on safety research, and on the nuclear fuel cycle. Comparing the expenditures of the Federal Government for the conversion of nuclear power into electricity with the savings achieved in electricity generating costs of approx. DM 58 billion by late 1989 (the cost advantage of nuclear power being approx. Pf 5/kWh), one arrives at a cost advantage to the whole economy of approx. DM 47 billion by the date shown above; by the year 2000, this advantage will have risen to some DM 150 billion. (orig.) [de

  6. Technical and Economic Forecast in Selection of Optimum Biomass and Local Fossil Fuel Application Technology for Thermal Electric Energy Generation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Bokun

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper provides a technical and economic analysis pertaining to selection of optimum biomass and local fossil fuel application technology for thermal electric energy generation while using a matrix of costs and a method of minimum value. Calculation results give grounds to assert that it is expedient to burn in the boiling layer – 69 % and 31 % of wood pellets and wastes, respectively and 54 % of peat and 46 % of slate stones. A steam and gas unit (SGU can fully operate on peat. Taking into account reorientation on decentralized power supply and increase of small power plants up to 3–5 MW the paper specifies variants of the most efficient technologies for burning biomass and local fossil fuels. 

  7. Forecast analysis on satellites that need de-orbit technologies: future scenarios for passive de-orbit devices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palla, Chiara; Kingston, Jennifer

    2016-09-01

    Propulsion-based de-orbit is a space-proven technology; however, this strategy can strongly limit operational lifetime, as fuel mass is dedicated to the de-orbiting. In addition previous reliability studies have identified the propulsion subsystem as one of the major contributors driving satellite failures. This issue brings the need to develop affordable de-orbit technologies with a limited reliance on the system level performance of the host satellite, ideally largely passive methods. Passive disposal strategies which take advantage of aerodynamic drag as the de-orbit force are particularly attractive because they are independent of spacecraft propulsion capabilities. This paper investigates the future market for passive de-orbit devices in LEO to aid in defining top-level requirements for the design of such devices. This is performed by considering the compliances of projected future satellites with the Inter Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee de-orbit time, to quantify the number of spacecraft that are compliant or non-compliant with the guidelines and, in this way, determine their need for the previously discussed devices. The study is performed by using the SpaceTrak™ database which provides future launch schedules, and spacecraft information; the de-orbit analysis is carried out by means of simulations with STELA. A case study of a passive strategy is given by the de-orbit mechanism technological demonstrator, which is currently under development at Cranfield University and designed to deploy a drag sail at the end of the ESEO satellite mission.

  8. Analysis of the development and diffusion of technological innovations in oil spill forecasting: The MEDESS-4MS case

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcati, Alberto; Prete, M. Irene; Mileti, Antonio; Cortese, Mario; Zodiatis, George; Karaolia, Andria; Gauci, Adam; Drago, Aldo

    2016-11-01

    This paper presents a case study on the management of users' engagement in the development of a new technology. Based on the experience of MEDESS-4MS, an integrated operational model for oil spill Decision Support System covering the whole Mediterranean Sea, the case study is aimed at the development of a framework for user engagement and for the management of its dual logic. Indeed, users may play a dual role in the innovation process, contributing to both the design of the innovation and its promotion. Users contribute to shaping the innovation, by aggregating and integrating knowledge, and they facilitate its diffusion, by adopting the innovation and fostering its adoption within the socio-economic system.

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  11. kpeq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kdug Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. klbt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kcys Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. khio Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kflo Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. klaf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kmlu Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kact Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. khob Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. ktcs Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kdnl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kmgw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kryy Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kgtf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kjax Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. ktvf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kfat Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kink Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kshv Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. pajn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kpna Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. ktph Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. ksux Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kcon Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kpnc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kgsp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kgpt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kgcn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kart Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. pagk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. korf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kpsm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kcre Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. krsw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. papg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kblf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. krdu Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kluk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. keed Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kiwd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kttn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kagc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kbmi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kapn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kgon Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. Forecasting the zeolite-containing catalyst activity in catalytic cracking technology taking into account the feedstock composition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivashkina, Elena; Nazarova, Galina; Shafran, Tatyana; Stebeneva, Valeriya

    2017-08-01

    The effect of the feedstock composition and the process conditions on the current catalyst activity in catalytic cracking technology using a mathematical model is performed in this research. The mathematical model takes into account the catalyst deactivation by coke for primary and secondary cracking reactions. The investigation results have shown that the feedstock has significant effect on the yield and the content of coke on the catalyst. Thus, the relative catalyst activity is significantly reduced by 7.5-10.7 %. With increasing the catalytic cracking temperature due to the catalyst flow temperature rising, the coke content and the yield per feedstock increase and the catalyst activity decreases by 5.3-7.7%. Rising the process temperature together with the catalyst circulation ratio contributes to increase of the coke yield per feedstock in the catalytic cracking and decrease of the coke content on the catalyst. It is connected with the catalyst flow rising to the riser and the contact time decreasing in the reaction zone. Also, the catalyst activity decreases in the range of 3.8-5.5% relatively to the regenerated catalyst activity (83 %).

  18. Weather forecast

    CERN Document Server

    Courtier, P

    1994-02-07

    Weather prediction is performed using the numerical model of the atmosphere evolution.The evolution equations are derived from the Navier Stokes equation for the adiabatic part but the are very much complicated by the change of phase of water, the radiation porocess and the boundary layer.The technique used operationally is described. Weather prediction is an initial value problem and accurate initial conditions need to be specified. Due to the small number of observations available (105 ) as compared to the dimension of the model state variable (107),the problem is largely underdetermined. Techniques of optimal control and inverse problems are used and have been adapted to the large dimension of our problem. our problem.The at mosphere is a chaotic system; the implication for weather prediction is discussed. Ensemble prediction is used operationally and the technique for generating initial conditions which lead to a numerical divergence of the subsequent forecasts is described.

  19. Maturity Models Development in IS Research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lasrado, Lester Allan; Vatrapu, Ravi; Andersen, Kim Normann

    2015-01-01

    of maturity models. Specifically, it explores maturity models literature in IS and standard guidelines, if any to develop maturity models, challenges identified and solutions proposed. Our systematic literature review of IS publications revealed over hundred and fifty articles on maturity models. Extant...... literature reveals that researchers have primarily focused on developing new maturity models pertaining to domain-specific problems and/or new enterprise technologies. We find rampant re-use of the design structure of widely adopted models such as Nolan’s Stage of Growth Model, Crosby’s Grid, and Capability...

  20. Rover Technologies

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Develop and mature rover technologies supporting robotic exploration including rover design, controlling rovers over time delay and for exploring . Technology...

  1. Five Year Computer Technology Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    1972-12-01

    The report delineates the various computer system components and extrapolates past trends in light of industry goals and physical limitations to predict what individual components and entire systems will look like in the second half of this decade. T...

  2. Issues in Forecasting CMEs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pizzo, V. J.

    2017-12-01

    I will present my view of the current status of space weather forecasting abilities related to CMEs. This talk will address the large-scale aspects, but specifically not energetic particle phenomena. A key point is that all models, whether sophisticated numerical contraptions or quasi-empirical ones, are only as good as the data you feed them. Hence the emphasis will be on observations and analysis methods. First I will review where we stand with regard to the near-Sun quantitative data needed to drive any model, no matter how complex or simple-minded, and I will discuss technological roadblocks that suggest it may be some time before we see any meaningful improvements beyond what we have today. Then I cover issues related to characterizing CME propagation out through the corona and into interplanetary space, as well as to observational limitations in the vicinity of 1 AU. Since none of these observational constraints are likely to be resolved anytime soon, the real challenge is to make more informed use of what is available. Thus, this talk will focus on how we may identify and pursue the most profitable approaches, for both forecast and research applications. The discussion will highlight a number of promising leads, including those related to inclusion of solar backside information, joint magnetograph observations from L5 and Earth, how to use (not just run) ensembles, more rational use of HI observations, and suggestions for using cube-sats for deep space observations of CMEs and MCs.

  3. Demand forecast model based on CRM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Yuancui; Chen, Lichao

    2006-11-01

    With interiorizing day by day management thought that regarding customer as the centre, forecasting customer demand becomes more and more important. In the demand forecast of customer relationship management, the traditional forecast methods have very great limitation because much uncertainty of the demand, these all require new modeling to meet the demands of development. In this paper, the notion is that forecasting the demand according to characteristics of the potential customer, then modeling by it. The model first depicts customer adopting uniform multiple indexes. Secondly, the model acquires characteristic customers on the basis of data warehouse and the technology of data mining. The last, there get the most similar characteristic customer by their comparing and forecast the demands of new customer by the most similar characteristic customer.

  4. Fuel cycle forecasting - there are forecasts and there are forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Puechl, K.H.

    1975-01-01

    The FORECAST-NUCLEAR computer program described recognizes that forecasts are made to answer a variety of questions and, therefore, that no single forecast is universally appropriate. Also, it recognizes that no two individuals will completely agree as to the input data that are appropriate for obtaining an answer to even a single simple question. Accordingly, the program was written from a utilitarian standpoint: it allows working with multiple projections; data inputting is simple to allow game-playing; computation time is short to minimize the cost of 'what if' assessements; and detail is internally carried to allow meaningful analysis. (author)

  5. Maturity and maturity models in lean construction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claus Nesensohn

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available In recent years there has been an increasing interest in maturity models in management-related disciplines; which reflects a growing recognition that becoming more mature and having a model to guide the route to maturity can help organisations in managing major transformational change. Lean Construction (LC is an increasingly important improvement approach that organisations seek to embed. This study explores how to apply the maturity models to LC. Hence the attitudes, opinions and experiences of key industry informants with high levels of knowledge of LC were investigated. To achieve this, a review of maturity models was conducted, and data for the analysis was collected through a sequential process involving three methods. First a group interview with seven key informants. Second a follow up discussion with the same individuals to investigate some of the issues raised in more depth. Third an online discussion held via LinkedIn in which members shared their views on some of the results. Overall, we found that there is a lack of common understanding as to what maturity means in LC, though there is general agreement that the concept of maturity is a suitable one to reflect the path of evolution for LC within organisations.

  6. Improving Software Reliability Forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Burtsy, Bernard; Albeanu, Grigore; Boros, Dragos N.; Popentiu, Florin; Nicola, V.F.

    1996-01-01

    This work investigates some methods for software reliability forecasting. A supermodel is presented as a suited tool for prediction of reliability in software project development. Also, times series forecasting for cumulative interfailure time is proposed and illustrated.

  7. Slab replacement maturity guidelines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-04-01

    This study investigated the use of maturity method to determine early age strength of concrete in slab : replacement application. Specific objectives were (1) to evaluate effects of various factors on the compressive : maturity-strength relationship ...

  8. Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2012

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hong, Tao; Pinson, Pierre; Fan, Shu

    2014-01-01

    The Global Energy Forecasting Competition (GEFCom2012) attracted hundreds of participants worldwide, who contributed many novel ideas to the energy forecasting field. This paper introduces both tracks of GEFCom2012, hierarchical load forecasting and wind power forecasting, with details...

  9. Inaccuracy in traffic forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, Bent; Holm, Mette K. Skamris; Buhl, Søren Ladegaard

    2006-01-01

    , the difference between actual and forecasted traffic is more than +-20%; for 25% of road projects, the difference is larger than +-40%. Forecasts for roads are more accurate and more balanced than for rail, with no significant difference between the frequency of inflated versus deflated forecasts. But for both...

  10. Managing Sales Forecasters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L.P. de Bruijn (Bert); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractA Forecast Support System (FSS), which generates sales forecasts, is a sophisticated business analytical tool that can help to improve targeted business decisions. Many companies use such a tool, although at the same time they may allow managers to quote their own forecasts. These sales

  11. Late maturers at a performance disadvantage to their more mature peers in junior Australian football.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gastin, Paul B; Bennett, Gary

    2014-01-01

    Children and adolescents mature at different rates such that individuals competing in the same competition may differ in physical and biological maturity despite being of similar chronological age. Whether or not differences translate into on-field performance in competition is relatively unknown. This study investigated the influence of biological maturity on fitness and match running performance in junior Australian football. Eighty-seven under-15 years players were categorised into early (n = 20), average (n = 45) and late (n = 22) maturity groups based on self-reported and anthropometric assessment of biological maturity. Running movements during competition were collected using GPS (5 Hz) technology. Early maturers were heavier and taller than all other boys (P 14.4 km · h(-1)) running distance and number of high-intensity efforts were significantly greater (20.8%, 53.6%, 31.7%, respectively; P disadvantage to their earlier maturing peers.

  12. Inaccuracy in traffic forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, Bent; Holm, Mette K. Skamris; Buhl, Søren Ladegaard

    2006-01-01

    that forecasters generally do a poor job of estimating the demand for transportation infrastructure projects. The result is substantial downside financial and economic risk. Forecasts have not become more accurate over the 30-year period studied. If techniques and skills for arriving at accurate demand forecasts...... forecasting. Highly inaccurate traffic forecasts combined with large standard deviations translate into large financial and economic risks. But such risks are typically ignored or downplayed by planners and decision-makers, to the detriment of social and economic welfare. The paper presents the data...

  13. Electricity demand forecasting techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gnanalingam, K.

    1994-01-01

    Electricity demand forecasting plays an important role in power generation. The two areas of data that have to be forecasted in a power system are peak demand which determines the capacity (MW) of the plant required and annual energy demand (GWH). Methods used in electricity demand forecasting include time trend analysis and econometric methods. In forecasting, identification of manpower demand, identification of key planning factors, decision on planning horizon, differentiation between prediction and projection (i.e. development of different scenarios) and choosing from different forecasting techniques are important

  14. Improved Forecasting Methods for Naval Manpower Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-25

    Structural Change Models, Journal of Applied Econometrics 18: 1-22. [10] Caporale T., Grier K. 2005, How Smart is my Dummy? Time Series Test for the...Tennessee 38055-1000  www.nprst.navy.mil NPRST-TR-15-3 March 2015 Improved Forecasting Methods for Naval Manpower Studies Ping Ying Bellamy...Ph.D. Tanja F. Blackstone, Ph.D. Navy Personnel Research, Studies, and Technology NPRST-TR-15-3 March 2015 Improved Forecasting Methods

  15. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Ruelke

    2013-01-01

    We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from...

  16. ORGANIZATIONAL PROJECT MANAGEMENT MATURITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yana Derenskaya

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The present article is aimed at developing a set of recommendations for achieving a higher level of organizational project maturity at a given enterprise. Methodology. For the purposes of the current research, the available information sources on the components of project management system are analysed; the essence of “organizational maturity” and the existing models of organizational maturity are studied. The method of systemic and structural analysis, as well as the method of logical generalization, are employed in order to study the existing models of organizational maturity, to describe levels of organizational maturity, and finally to develop a set of methodological recommendations for achieving a higher level of organizational project maturity at a given enterprise. The results of the research showed that the core elements of project management system are methodological, organizational, programtechnical, and motivational components. Project management encompasses a wide range of issues connected with organizational structure, project team, communication management, project participants, etc. However, the fundamental basis for developing project management concept within a given enterprise starts with defining its level of organizational maturity. The present paper describes various models of organizational maturity (staged, continuous, petal-shaped and their common types (H. Кеrzner Organizational Maturity Model, Berkeley PM Maturity Model, Organizational Project Management Maturity Model, Portfolio, Program & Project Management Maturity Model. The analysis of available theoretic works showed that the notion “organizational project maturity” refers to the capability of an enterprise to select projects and manage them with the intention of achieving its strategic goals in the most effective way. Importantly, the level of maturity can be improved by means of formalizing the acquired knowledge, regulating project-related activities

  17. Forecasting in Planning

    OpenAIRE

    Ike, P.; Voogd, Henk; Voogd, Henk; Linden, Gerard

    2004-01-01

    This chapter begins with a discussion of qualitative forecasting by describing a number of methods that depend on judgements made by stakeholders, experts or other interested parties to arrive at forecasts. Two qualitative approaches are illuminated, the Delphi and scenario methods respectively. Quantitative forecasting is illustrated with a brief overview of time series methods. Both qualitative and quantitative methods are illustrated by an example. The role and relative importance of forec...

  18. Commuter Airline Forecasts,

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-05-01

    conterminous United States (48 contiguous states and the District of Columbia), for the State of Hawaii, and for the U.S. Carribean areas, Puerto Rico and U.S...FAA 15. Supplementary Notes I Abstract This publication presents forecasts of cammuter air carrier activity and describes the models designed for...forecasting Contenninous United States, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, Hawaii, and individual airport activity. These forecasts take into account the

  19. The intersections between TRIZ and forecasting methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgeta BARBULESCU

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The authors’ intention is to correlate the basic knowledge in using the TRIZ methodology (Theory of Inventive Problem Solving or in Russian: Teoriya Resheniya Izobretatelskikh Zadatch as a problem solving tools meant to help the decision makers to perform more significant forecasting exercises. The idea is to identify the TRIZ features and instruments (40 inventive principles, i.e. for putting in evidence the noise and signal problem, for trend identification (qualitative and quantitative tendencies and support tools in technological forecasting, to make the decision-makers able to refine and to increase the level of confidence in the forecasting results. The interest in connecting TRIZ to forecasting methodology, nowadays, relates to the massive application of TRIZ methods and techniques for engineering system development world-wide and in growing application of TRIZ’s concepts and paradigms for improvements of non-engineering systems (including the business and economic applications.

  20. Net load forecasting for high renewable energy penetration grids

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaur, Amanpreet; Nonnenmacher, Lukas; Coimbra, Carlos F.M.

    2016-01-01

    We discuss methods for net load forecasting and their significance for operation and management of power grids with high renewable energy penetration. Net load forecasting is an enabling technology for the integration of microgrid fleets with the macrogrid. Net load represents the load that is traded between the grids (microgrid and utility grid). It is important for resource allocation and electricity market participation at the point of common coupling between the interconnected grids. We compare two inherently different approaches: additive and integrated net load forecast models. The proposed methodologies are validated on a microgrid with 33% annual renewable energy (solar) penetration. A heuristics based solar forecasting technique is proposed, achieving skill of 24.20%. The integrated solar and load forecasting model outperforms the additive model by 10.69% and the uncertainty range for the additive model is larger than the integrated model by 2.2%. Thus, for grid applications an integrated forecast model is recommended. We find that the net load forecast errors and the solar forecasting errors are cointegrated with a common stochastic drift. This is useful for future planning and modeling because the solar energy time-series allows to infer important features of the net load time-series, such as expected variability and uncertainty. - Highlights: • Net load forecasting methods for grids with renewable energy generation are discussed. • Integrated solar and load forecasting outperforms the additive model by 10.69%. • Net load forecasting reduces the uncertainty between the interconnected grids.

  1. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Pierdzioch

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time.

  2. World Area Forecast System (WAFS)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The World Area Forecast System (WAFS) is a worldwide system by which world area forecast centers provide aeronautical meteorological en-route forecasts in uniform...

  3. Forecasting in Planning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ike, P.; Voogd, Henk; Voogd, Henk; Linden, Gerard

    2004-01-01

    This chapter begins with a discussion of qualitative forecasting by describing a number of methods that depend on judgements made by stakeholders, experts or other interested parties to arrive at forecasts. Two qualitative approaches are illuminated, the Delphi and scenario methods respectively.

  4. Report on achievements in fiscal 1998. Research and development of a technology to forecast environmental effect in association with isolation of carbon dioxide in oceans. (Surveys on development and research support on a technology to forecast environmental effect in areas in the vicinity of CO2 discharging points); 1998 nendo nisanka tanso no kaiyo kakuri ni tomonau kankyo eikyo yosoku gijutsu kenkyu kaihatsu seika hokokusho. CO{sub 2} horyuten shuhen'iki no kankyo eikyo yosoku gijutsu no kaihatsu narabini kenkyu shien chosa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1999-03-01

    Atmospheric concentration of CO2 is increasing, and discussions are urged on measures to suppress emission of CO2 into atmosphere. While different CO2 fixing technologies may be conceived, there is a technology to utilize CO2 absorbing capability of ocean by discharging and dissolving CO2 artificially into middle layer of the ocean to separate CO2 from atmosphere. This technology is one of the technologies which are promising in the aspects of technology, economic performance, and possible amount of CO2 reduction. However, it is difficult to say that scientific and technological discussions have been given sufficiently on behavior of CO2 discharged into the ocean, effect of the discharge on environments, and CO2 separation capability of the ocean. Therefore, in the present research and development, a 'technology to forecast environmental effect in areas in the vicinity of CO2 discharging points' is developed to serve for acquiring technological prospect on the feasibility to realize the CO2 ocean separation by discharging CO2 into the middle layer of the ocean. The present fiscal year has performed researches on the following research and development items: elucidation of behavior of liquefied CO2 when discharged into the ocean, CO2 feeding and diluting technologies, indoor experiments on the effects of CO2 on ocean living organisms, and development of a model to forecast environments in areas in the vicinity of CO2 discharging points. (NEDO)

  5. Coherence between institutions and technologies - The case of mini hydropower in Switzerland

    OpenAIRE

    Crettenand, Nicolas

    2009-01-01

    Switzerland, with the forecasted electricity gap between domestic production and demand, aims to significantly increase renewable energy sources including hydropower. Mini hydropower (below 1MW) currently has considerable unused technical potential. As a renewable energy source (RES) it can contribute to climate change mitigation. CO2-taxes or emission trading systems (ETS) for planned thermal power plants could help facilitate mini hydropower (MHP). The technology is mature, but requires ade...

  6. To Mature or not to Mature: The Information Systems Conundrum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carl Marnewick

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Research has been done within the South African information technology (IT industry over the last decade with regard to project management maturity (PMM and the impact it has on delivering information systems (IS projects successfully. The research was done to determine whether IS PMM per knowledge area has improved over the last decade. It investigates if there is a correlation between maturity levels and project success. Four independent surveys over the last decade focused on IS PMM and the longitudinal analysis provides a benchmark for whether IS PMM has increased or not. This article focuses on whether certain knowledge areas are more of a problem within the IT industry and to determine what the overall IS PMM is. The longitudinal analysis indicates trends and highlights areas of concern. It indicates that most IT companies are still operating at level 3 and that risk and procurement management are the knowledge areas of concern. A comparative analysis indicates that there is no difference between South African and international maturity levels. The results provide a South African perspective of IS PMM. It highlights that risk management is still a knowledge area that is neglected and that emphasis must be placed on managing risk within IT projects.

  7. Mountain range specific analog weather forecast model for ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    hazard evaluation; Canadian Geotechnical Journal 7. 414–419. Sharma S S and Ganju A 2000 Complexities of avalanche forecasting in Western Himalaya: An overview; Cold. Regions Science and Technology 31 95–102. Singh A and Ganju A 2004 A supplement to nearest neigh- bour method for avalanche forecasting; ...

  8. Fluidized Bed Gasification as a Mature And Reliable Technology for the Production of Bio-Syngas and Applied in the Production of Liquid Transportation Fuels—A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrian H.M. Verkooijen

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Biomass is one of the renewable and potentially sustainable energy sources and has many possible applications varying from heat generation to the production of advanced secondary energy carriers. The latter option would allow mobile services like the transportation sector to reduce its dependency on the fossil fuel supply. This article reviews the state-of-the-art of the fluidization technology applied for the gasification of biomass aimed at the production of gas for subsequent synthesis of the liquid energy carriers via, e.g., the Fischer-Tropsch process. It discusses the advantages of the gasification technology over combustion, considers the size of the conversion plant in view of the local biomass availability, assesses the pros and cons of different gasifier types in view of the application of the product gas. Subsequently the article focuses on the fluidized bed technology to discuss the main process parameters and their influence on the product composition and the operability of the gasifier. Finally a synthesis process (FT is introduced shortly to illustrate the necessary gas cleaning steps in view of the purity requirements for the FT feed gas.

  9. Conformal Ablative Thermal Protection System for Planetary and Human Exploration Missions: Overview of the Technology Maturation Efforts Funded by NASA's Game Changing Development Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, Robin A.; Arnold, James O.; Gasch, Matthew J.; Stackpoole, Margaret M.; Fan, Wendy; Szalai, Christine E.; Wercinski, Paul F.; Venkatapathy, Ethiraj

    2012-01-01

    The Office of Chief Technologist (OCT), NASA has identified the need for research and technology development in part from NASA's Strategic Goal 3.3 of the NASA Strategic Plan to develop and demonstrate the critical technologies that will make NASA's exploration, science, and discovery missions more affordable and more capable. Furthermore, the Game Changing Development Program (GCDP) is a primary avenue to achieve the Agency's 2011 strategic goal to "Create the innovative new space technologies for our exploration, science, and economic future." In addition, recently released "NASA space Technology Roadmaps and Priorities," by the National Research Council (NRC) of the National Academy of Sciences stresses the need for NASA to invest in the very near term in specific EDL technologies. The report points out the following challenges (Page 2-38 of the pre-publication copy released on February 1, 2012): Mass to Surface: Develop the ability to deliver more payload to the destination. NASA's future missions will require ever-greater mass delivery capability in order to place scientifically significant instrument packages on distant bodies of interest, to facilitate sample returns from bodies of interest, and to enable human exploration of planets such as Mars. As the maximum mass that can be delivered to an entry interface is fixed for a given launch system and trajectory design, the mass delivered to the surface will require reduction in spacecraft structural mass; more efficient, lighter thermal protection systems; more efficient lighter propulsion systems; and lighter, more efficient deceleration systems. Surface Access: Increase the ability to land at a variety of planetary locales and at a variety of times. Access to specific sites can be achieved via landing at a specific location (s) or transit from a single designated landing location, but it is currently infeasible to transit long distances and through extremely rugged terrain, requiring landing close to the

  10. Artificial intelligence in short term electric load forecasting: a state-of-the-art survey for the researcher

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Metaxiotis, K.; Kagiannas, A.; Askounis, D.; Psarras, J. [National Technical University of Athens, Zografou (Turkey). Dept. of Electrical and Computer Engineering

    2003-06-01

    Intelligent solutions, based on artificial intelligence (AI) technologies, to solve complicated practical problems in various sectors are becoming more and more widespread nowadays. AI-based systems are being developed and deployed worldwide in myriad applications, mainly because of their symbolic reasoning, flexibility and explanation capabilities. This paper provides an overview for the researcher of AI technologies, as well as their current use in the field of short term electric load forecasting (STELF). The history of AI in STELF is outlined, leading to a discussion of the various approaches as well as the current research directions. The paper concludes by sharing thoughts and estimations on AI future prospects in this area. This review reveals that although still regarded as a novel methodology, AI technologies are shown to have matured to the point of offering real practical benefits in many of their applications. (Author)

  11. The strategy of professional forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ottaviani, Marco; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    2006-01-01

    We develop and compare two theories of professional forecasters’ strategic behavior. The first theory, reputational cheap talk, posits that forecasters endeavor to convince the market that they are well informed. The market evaluates their forecasting talent on the basis of the forecasts and the ......We develop and compare two theories of professional forecasters’ strategic behavior. The first theory, reputational cheap talk, posits that forecasters endeavor to convince the market that they are well informed. The market evaluates their forecasting talent on the basis of the forecasts...... and the realized state. If the market expects forecasters to report their posterior expectations honestly, then forecasts are shaded toward the prior mean. With correct market expectations, equilibrium forecasts are imprecise but not shaded. The second theory posits that forecasters compete in a forecasting...

  12. New product forecasting with limited or no data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismai, Zuhaimy; Abu, Noratikah; Sufahani, Suliadi

    2016-10-01

    In the real world, forecasts would always be based on historical data with the assumption that the behaviour be the same for the future. But how do we forecast when there is no such data available? New product or new technologies normally has limited amount of data available. Knowing that forecasting is valuable for decision making, this paper presents forecasting of new product or new technologies using aggregate diffusion models and modified Bass Model. A newly launched Proton car and its penetration was chosen to demonstrate the possibility of forecasting sales demand where there is limited or no data available. The model was developed to forecast diffusion of new vehicle or an innovation in the Malaysian society. It is to represent the level of spread on the new vehicle among a given set of the society in terms of a simple mathematical function that elapsed since the introduction of the new product. This model will forecast the car sales volume. A procedure of the proposed diffusion model was designed and the parameters were estimated. Results obtained by applying the proposed diffusion model and numerical calculation shows that the model is robust and effective for forecasting demand of the new vehicle. The results reveal that newly developed modified Bass diffusion of demand function has significantly contributed for forecasting the diffusion of new Proton car or new product.

  13. Oocyte maturation in bitches

    OpenAIRE

    Pereira, L. M. C.; Bicudo, S. D.; Lopes, M. D.

    2012-01-01

    The canine species has been used as an experimental model for preservation of endangered species. Biotechnologies of reproduction, such as in vitro maturation (IVM), have been used to meet this objective. Several protocols for in vitro embryo production (IVEP) in swine and bovine species have been adapted for canids. However, the highest rate reported for in vitro maturation in canids is only 39%, which is still lower than those in other species. Therefore, current research on assisted reprod...

  14. Space weather forecasting: Past, Present, Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lanzerotti, L. J.

    2012-12-01

    There have been revolutionary advances in electrical technologies over the last 160 years. The historical record demonstrates that space weather processes have often provided surprises in the implementation and operation of many of these technologies. The historical record also demonstrates that as the complexity of systems increase, including their interconnectedness and interoperability, they can become more susceptible to space weather effects. An engineering goal, beginning during the decades following the 1859 Carrington event, has been to attempt to forecast solar-produced disturbances that could affect technical systems, be they long grounded conductor-based or radio-based or required for exploration, or the increasingly complex systems immersed in the space environment itself. Forecasting of space weather events involves both frontier measurements and models to address engineering requirements, and industrial and governmental policies that encourage and permit creativity and entrepreneurship. While analogies of space weather forecasting to terrestrial weather forecasting are frequently made, and while many of the analogies are valid, there are also important differences. This presentation will provide some historical perspectives on the forecast problem, a personal assessment of current status of several areas including important policy issues, and a look into the not-too-distant future.

  15. Spatial electric load forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Willis, H Lee

    2002-01-01

    Spatial Electric Load Forecasting Consumer Demand for Power and ReliabilityCoincidence and Load BehaviorLoad Curve and End-Use ModelingWeather and Electric LoadWeather Design Criteria and Forecast NormalizationSpatial Load Growth BehaviorSpatial Forecast Accuracy and Error MeasuresTrending MethodsSimulation Method: Basic ConceptsA Detailed Look at the Simulation MethodBasics of Computerized SimulationAnalytical Building Blocks for Spatial SimulationAdvanced Elements of Computerized SimulationHybrid Trending-Simulation MethodsAdvanced

  16. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-08-01

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation

  17. NYHOPS Forecast Model Results

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — 3D Marine Nowcast/Forecast System for the New York Bight NYHOPS subdomain. Currents, waves, surface meteorology, and water conditions.

  18. Effect of advanced aircraft noise reduction technology on the 1990 projected noise environment around Patrick Henry Airport. [development of noise exposure forecast contours for projected traffic volume and aircraft types

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cawthorn, J. M.; Brown, C. G.

    1974-01-01

    A study has been conducted of the future noise environment of Patric Henry Airport and its neighboring communities projected for the year 1990. An assessment was made of the impact of advanced noise reduction technologies which are currently being considered. These advanced technologies include a two-segment landing approach procedure and aircraft hardware modifications or retrofits which would add sound absorbent material in the nacelles of the engines or which would replace the present two- and three-stage fans with a single-stage fan of larger diameter. Noise Exposure Forecast (NEF) contours were computed for the baseline (nonretrofitted) aircraft for the projected traffic volume and fleet mix for the year 1990. These NEF contours are presented along with contours for a variety of retrofit options. Comparisons of the baseline with the noise reduction options are given in terms of total land area exposed to 30 and 40 NEF levels. Results are also presented of the effects on noise exposure area of the total number of daily operations.

  19. SWIFT2: Software for continuous ensemble short-term streamflow forecasting for use in research and operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perraud, Jean-Michel; Bennett, James C.; Bridgart, Robert; Robertson, David E.

    2016-04-01

    Research undertaken through the Water Information Research and Development Alliance (WIRADA) has laid the foundations for continuous deterministic and ensemble short-term forecasting services. One output of this research is the software Short-term Water Information Forecasting Tools version 2 (SWIFT2). SWIFT2 is developed for use in research on short term streamflow forecasting techniques as well as operational forecasting services at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The variety of uses in research and operations requires a modular software system whose components can be arranged in applications that are fit for each particular purpose, without unnecessary software duplication. SWIFT2 modelling structures consist of sub-areas of hydrologic models, nodes and links with in-stream routing and reservoirs. While this modelling structure is customary, SWIFT2 is built from the ground up for computational and data intensive applications such as ensemble forecasts necessary for the estimation of the uncertainty in forecasts. Support for parallel computation on multiple processors or on a compute cluster is a primary use case. A convention is defined to store large multi-dimensional forecasting data and its metadata using the netCDF library. SWIFT2 is written in modern C++ with state of the art software engineering techniques and practices. A salient technical feature is a well-defined application programming interface (API) to facilitate access from different applications and technologies. SWIFT2 is already seamlessly accessible on Windows and Linux via packages in R, Python, Matlab and .NET languages such as C# and F#. Command line or graphical front-end applications are also feasible. This poster gives an overview of the technology stack, and illustrates the resulting features of SWIFT2 for users. Research and operational uses share the same common core C++ modelling shell for consistency, but augmented by different software modules suitable for each context. The

  20. Long Maturity Forward Rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Charlotte

    2001-01-01

    The paper aims to improve the knowledge of the empirical properties of the long maturity region of the forward rate curve. Firstly, the theoretical negative correlation between the slope at the long end of the forward rate curve and the term structure variance is recovered empirically and found...... to be statistically significant. Secondly, the expectations hypothesis is analyzed for the long maturity region of the forward rate curve using "forward rate" regressions. The expectations hypothesis is numerically close to being accepted but is statistically rejected. The findings provide mixed support...

  1. Mechanics of bacteriophage maturation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roos, W.H.; Gertsman, I.; May, E.R.; Brooks, C.L.; Johnson, J.E.; Wuite, G.J.L.

    2012-01-01

    Capsid maturation with large-scale subunit reorganization occurs in virtually all viruses that use a motor to package nucleic acid into preformed particles. A variety of ensemble studies indicate that the particles gain greater stability during this process, however, it is unknown which material

  2. Maturing interorganisational information systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Plomp, M.G.A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/313946809

    2012-01-01

    This thesis consists of nine chapters, divided over five parts. PART I is an introduction and the last part contains the conclusions. The remaining, intermediate parts are: PART II: Developing a maturity model for chain digitisation. This part contains two related studies concerning the development

  3. Grammar Maturity Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zaytsev, V.; Pierantonio, A.; Schätz, B.; Tamzalit, D.

    2014-01-01

    The evolution of a software language (whether modelled by a grammar or a schema or a metamodel) is not limited to development of new versions and dialects. An important dimension of a software language evolution is maturing in the sense of improving the quality of its definition. In this paper, we

  4. Space Weather Forecasting at IZMIRAN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaidash, S. P.; Belov, A. V.; Abunina, M. A.; Abunin, A. A.

    2017-12-01

    Since 1998, the Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radio Wave Propagation (IZMIRAN) has had an operating heliogeophysical service—the Center for Space Weather Forecasts. This center transfers the results of basic research in solar-terrestrial physics into daily forecasting of various space weather parameters for various lead times. The forecasts are promptly available to interested consumers. This article describes the center and the main types of forecasts it provides: solar and geomagnetic activity, magnetospheric electron fluxes, and probabilities of proton increases. The challenges associated with the forecasting of effects of coronal mass ejections and coronal holes are discussed. Verification data are provided for the center's forecasts.

  5. Financial Analysts’ Forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stæhr, Simone

    in the decision making and the magnitude of these constraints does sometimes vary with personal traits. Therefore, to the extent that financial analysts are subjects to behavioral biases their outputs to the investors are likely to be biased by their interpretation of information. Because investors need accuracy....... The primary focus is on financial analysts in the task of conducting earnings forecasts while a secondary focus is on investors’ abilities to interpret and make use of these forecasts. Simply put, financial analysts can be seen as information intermediators receiving inputs to their analyses from firm...... management and providing outputs to the investors. Amongst various outputs from the analysts are forecasts of earnings. According to decision theories mostly from the literature in psychology all humans are affected by cognitive constraints to some degree. These constraints may lead to unintentional biases...

  6. Effect of maturity stages, variety and storage environment on sugar ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study clearly demonstrated the importance of integrated agro-technology of combining cultivar, maturity stage and storage environment in shelf life improvement of tomato by reducing the rate of ripening and utilization of sugar, reducing water loss and maintaining marketability. Key words: Tomato, maturity stage, ...

  7. Spatial load forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Willis, H.L.; Engel, M.V.; Buri, M.J.

    1995-04-01

    The reliability, efficiency, and economy of a power delivery system depend mainly on how well its substations, transmission lines, and distribution feeders are located within the utility service area, and how well their capacities match power needs in their respective localities. Often, utility planners are forced to commit to sites, rights of way, and equipment capacities year in advance. A necessary element of effective expansion planning is a forecast of where and how much demand must be served by the future T and D system. This article reports that a three-stage method forecasts with accuracy and detail, allowing meaningful determination of sties and sizes for future substation, transmission, and distribution facilities.

  8. Forecast of auroral activity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lui, A.T.Y.

    2004-01-01

    A new technique is developed to predict auroral activity based on a sample of over 9000 auroral sites identified in global auroral images obtained by an ultraviolet imager on the NASA Polar satellite during a 6-month period. Four attributes of auroral activity sites are utilized in forecasting, namely, the area, the power, and the rates of change in area and power. This new technique is quite accurate, as indicated by the high true skill scores for forecasting three different levels of auroral dissipation during the activity lifetime. The corresponding advanced warning time ranges from 22 to 79 min from low to high dissipation levels

  9. Project in fiscal 1989 for research and development of basic technologies in next generation industries. Research and development of superconducting materials and superconducting elements (Achievement report on forecast and research of superconducting element technology); 1990 nendo chodendo soshi gijutsu yosoku kenkyu seika hokokusho

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1991-03-01

    With an objective to forecast the ways the future superconducting elements and the related technologies should proceed, investigations and researches were performed on the progress in research and development of high-temperature superconducting elements, and the superconduction in a wide range. This paper summarizes the achievements in fiscal 1990. The high-temperature superconducting thin film technology has made remarkable advancement. The correlation of film forming conditions with characteristics of thin films was studied by using the sputtering process, laser deposition process and CVD process, having made production of thin films sufficiently applicable to electronics possible. A technology has been developed to suppress deterioration of characteristics for high-temperature conductors in thin film patterning, surface treatment and lamination structure fabrication. However, the problem of characteristics deterioration on interface of tri-terminal elements still remain unsolved. The bonded structure elements using high-temperature superconductors is the central technology in electronics application, but such problems exist as the coherence length being short, deterioration of characteristics at interfaces, and the electric characteristics being sensitive to crystalline orientation. Technological development to overcome these problems is under way. (NEDO)

  10. Combining forecasts in short term load forecasting: Empirical ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    We present an empirical analysis to show that combination of short term load forecasts leads to better accuracy. We also discuss other aspects of combination, i.e.,distribution of weights, effect of variation in the historical window and distribution of forecast errors. The distribution of forecast errors is analyzed in order to get a ...

  11. Forecasting Housing Approvals in Australia: Do Forecasters Herd?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Rülke

    2012-01-01

    Price trends in housing markets may reflect herding of market participants. A natural question is whether such herding, to the extent that it occurred, reflects herding in forecasts of professional forecasters. Using more than 6,000 forecasts of housing approvals for Australia, we did not find...

  12. CDM Convective Forecast Planning guidance

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CDM Convective Forecast Planning (CCFP) guidance product provides a foreast of en-route aviation convective hazards. The forecasts are updated every 2 hours and...

  13. Battlescale Forecast Model Sensitivity Study

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Sauter, Barbara

    2003-01-01

    .... Changes to the surface observations used in the Battlescale Forecast Model initialization led to no significant changes in the resulting forecast values of temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, or wind direction...

  14. Challenges of operational river forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pagano, T.C.; Wood, A.W.; Ramos, M.H.; Cloke, H.L.; Pappenbreger, F.; Verkade, J.S.

    2014-01-01

    Skillful and timely streamflow forecasts are critically important to water managers and emergency protection services. To provide these forecasts, hydrologists must predict the behavior of complex coupled human–natural systems using incomplete and uncertain information and imperfect models.

  15. Are demand forecasting techniques applicable to libraries?

    OpenAIRE

    Sridhar, M. S.

    1984-01-01

    Examines the nature and limitations of demand forecasting, discuses plausible methods of forecasting demand for information, suggests some useful hints for demand forecasting and concludes by emphasizing unified approach to demand forecasting.

  16. Forecasting inbound tourists in Cambodia

    OpenAIRE

    Tanaka, Kiyoyasu

    2016-01-01

    Forecasting tourism demand is crucial for management decisions in the tourism sector. Estimating a vector autoregressive (VAR) model for monthly visitor arrivals disaggregated by three entry points in Cambodia for the years 2006–2015, I forecast the number of arrivals for years 2016 and 2017. The results show that the VAR model fits well with the data on visitor arrivals for each entry point. Ex post forecasting shows that the forecasts closely match the observed data for visitor arrivals, th...

  17. ASSESSING AND FORECASTING, BY PLAY, NATURAL GAS ULTIMATE RECOVERY GROWTH AND QUANTIFYING THE ROLE OF TECHNOLOGY ADVANCEMENTS IN THE TEXAS GULF COAST BASIN AND EAST TEXAS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    William L. Fisher; Eugene M. Kim

    2000-12-01

    A detailed natural gas ultimate recovery growth (URG) analysis of the Texas Gulf Coast Basin and East Texas has been undertaken. The key to such analysis was determined to be the disaggregation of the resource base to the play level. A play is defined as a conceptual geologic unit having one or more reservoirs that can be genetically related on the basis of depositional origin of the reservoir, structural or trap style, source rocks and hydrocarbon generation, migration mechanism, seals for entrapment, and type of hydrocarbon produced. Plays are the geologically homogeneous subdivision of the universe of petroleum pools within a basin. Therefore, individual plays have unique geological features that can be used as a conceptual model that incorporates geologic processes and depositional environments to explain the distribution of petroleum. Play disaggregation revealed important URG trends for the major natural gas fields in the Texas Gulf Coast Basin and East Texas. Although significant growth and future potential were observed for the major fields, important URG trends were masked by total, aggregated analysis based on a broad geological province. When disaggregated by plays, significant growth and future potential were displayed for plays that were associated with relatively recently discovered fields, deeper reservoir depths, high structural complexities due to fault compartmentalization, reservoirs designated as tight gas/low-permeability, and high initial reservoir pressures. Continued technology applications and advancements are crucial in achieving URG potential in these plays.

  18. Forecasters' Objectives and Strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marinovic, Iván; Ottaviani, Marco; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    2013-01-01

    This chapter develops a unified modeling framework for analyzing the strategic behavior of forecasters. The theoretical model encompasses reputational objectives, competition for the best accuracy, and bias. Also drawing from the extensive lit- erature on analysts, we review the empirical evidenc...

  19. Housing Price Forecastability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bork, Lasse; Møller, Stig Vinther

    2016-01-01

    We examine U.S. housing price forecastability using principal component analysis (PCA), partial least squares (PLS), and sparse PLS (SPLS). We incorporate information from a large panel of 128 economic time series and show that macroeconomic fundamentals have strong predictive power for future mo...

  20. Hydrology and flow forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vrijling, J.K.; Kwadijk, J.; Van Duivendijk, J.; Van Gelder, P.; Pang, H.; Rao, S.Q.; Wang, G.Q.; Huang, X.Q.

    2002-01-01

    We have studied and applied the statistic model (i.e. MMC) and hydrological models to Upper Yellow River. This report introduces the results and some conclusions from the model. The three models, MMC, MWBM and NAM, have be applied in the research area. The forecasted discharge by the three models

  1. Reference class forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, Bent

    Underbudgettering og budgetoverskridelser forekommer i et flertal af større bygge- og anlægsprojekter. Problemet skyldes optimisme og/eller strategisk misinformation i budgetteringsprocessen. Reference class forecasting (RCF) er en prognosemetode, som er udviklet for at reducere eller eliminere...

  2. Selecting the Best Forecasting-Implied Volatility Model Using Genetic Programming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wafa Abdelmalek

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The volatility is a crucial variable in option pricing and hedging strategies. The aim of this paper is to provide some initial evidence of the empirical relevance of genetic programming to volatility's forecasting. By using real data from S&P500 index options, the genetic programming's ability to forecast Black and Scholes-implied volatility is compared between time series samples and moneyness-time to maturity classes. Total and out-of-sample mean squared errors are used as forecasting's performance measures. Comparisons reveal that the time series model seems to be more accurate in forecasting-implied volatility than moneyness time to maturity models. Overall, results are strongly encouraging and suggest that the genetic programming approach works well in solving financial problems.

  3. Air Pollution Forecasts: An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Bai

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies.

  4. GEOS-5 seasonal forecast system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borovikov, Anna; Cullather, Richard; Kovach, Robin; Marshak, Jelena; Vernieres, Guillaume; Vikhliaev, Yury; Zhao, Bin; Li, Zhao

    2017-09-01

    Ensembles of numerical forecasts based on perturbed initial conditions have long been used to improve estimates of both weather and climate forecasts. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5 AOGCM) Seasonal-to-Interannual Forecast System has been used routinely by the GMAO since 2008, the current version since 2012. A coupled reanalysis starting in 1980 provides the initial conditions for the 9-month experimental forecasts. Once a month, sea surface temperature from a suite of 11 ensemble forecasts is contributed to the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) consensus project, which compares and distributes seasonal forecasts of ENSO events. Since June 2013, GEOS-5 forecasts of the Arctic sea-ice distribution were provided to the Sea-Ice Outlook project. The seasonal forecast output data includes surface fields, atmospheric and ocean fields, as well as sea ice thickness and area, and soil moisture variables. The current paper aims to document the characteristics of the GEOS-5 seasonal forecast system and to highlight forecast biases and skills of selected variables (sea surface temperature, air temperature at 2 m, precipitation and sea ice extent) to be used as a benchmark for the future GMAO seasonal forecast systems and to facilitate comparison with other global seasonal forecast systems.

  5. Air Pollution Forecasts: An Overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Lu; Wang, Jianzhou; Ma, Xuejiao; Lu, Haiyan

    2018-04-17

    Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies.

  6. Gas deliverability forecasting - why bother?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trick, M.

    1996-01-01

    According to the author the answer to the question is an unequivocal 'yes' because gas production forecasting is extremely useful for the management and development of a gas field. To model a gas field, one must take into account reservoir performance, sandface inflow performance, wellbore pressure losses, gathering system pressure losses, and field facility performance. The integration of all these factors in a single computer-based model that incorporates proven technology will facilitate the evaluation of various development strategies. A good computer model can help to predict the most cost effective improvement methods, determine economic viability, estimate how much gas is available, evaluate whether drilling wells or adding compression will produce the most reserves, determine optimum placement of compression, evaluate changes to the gathering system, and determine if production from existing wells can be increased by wellbore modifications

  7. How accurate are forecasts of costs of energy? A methodological contribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siddons, Craig; Allan, Grant; McIntyre, Stuart

    2015-01-01

    Forecasts of the cost of energy are typically presented as point estimates; however forecasts are seldom accurate, which makes it important to understand the uncertainty around these point estimates. The scale of the differences between forecasts and outturns (i.e. contemporary estimates) of costs may have important implications for government decisions on the appropriate form (and level) of support, modelling energy scenarios or industry investment appraisal. This paper proposes a methodology to assess the accuracy of cost forecasts. We apply this to levelised costs of energy for different generation technologies due to the availability of comparable forecasts and contemporary estimates, however the same methodology could be applied to the components of levelised costs, such as capital costs. The estimated “forecast errors” capture the accuracy of previous forecasts and can provide objective bounds to the range around current forecasts for such costs. The results from applying this method are illustrated using publicly available data for on- and off-shore wind, Nuclear and CCGT technologies, revealing the possible scale of “forecast errors” for these technologies. - Highlights: • A methodology to assess the accuracy of forecasts of costs of energy is outlined. • Method applied to illustrative data for four electricity generation technologies. • Results give an objective basis for sensitivity analysis around point estimates.

  8. The weather forecasting in Colombia: Science plus Art

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez Marentes, Humberto

    2006-01-01

    The presentation intends to show briefly and rapidly the progress weather forecasting science has undergone times until today. Undoubtedly, there has been an impressive technological advances, more data better models, better representations of the physics of the atmosphere; however for the case of the low latitude countries, there are still some problems to resolve concerning the local prediction that deserve more research and more data to be included in the models. As these limitations subsist, the subjective knowledge and the experience of the duty forecaster remain valuable. The presentation is also useful to summarize how IDEAM prepares short weather forecasts

  9. Day-Ahead Wind Speed Forecasting Using Relevance Vector Machine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guoqiang Sun

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available With the development of wind power technology, the security of the power system, power quality, and stable operation will meet new challenges. So, in this paper, we propose a recently developed machine learning technique, relevance vector machine (RVM, for day-ahead wind speed forecasting. We combine Gaussian kernel function and polynomial kernel function to get mixed kernel for RVM. Then, RVM is compared with back propagation neural network (BP and support vector machine (SVM for wind speed forecasting in four seasons in precision and velocity; the forecast results demonstrate that the proposed method is reasonable and effective.

  10. Benefits of seasonal forecasts of crop yields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakurai, G.; Okada, M.; Nishimori, M.; Yokozawa, M.

    2017-12-01

    Major factors behind recent fluctuations in food prices include increased biofuel production and oil price fluctuations. In addition, several extreme climate events that reduced worldwide food production coincided with upward spikes in food prices. The stabilization of crop yields is one of the most important tasks to stabilize food prices and thereby enhance food security. Recent development of technologies related to crop modeling and seasonal weather forecasting has made it possible to forecast future crop yields for maize and soybean. However, the effective use of these technologies remains limited. Here we present the potential benefits of seasonal crop-yield forecasts on a global scale for choice of planting day. For this purpose, we used a model (PRYSBI-2) that can well replicate past crop yields both for maize and soybean. This model system uses a Bayesian statistical approach to estimate the parameters of a basic process-based model of crop growth. The spatial variability of model parameters was considered by estimating the posterior distribution of the parameters from historical yield data by using the Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method with a resolution of 1.125° × 1.125°. The posterior distributions of model parameters were estimated for each spatial grid with 30 000 MCMC steps of 10 chains each. By using this model and the estimated parameter distributions, we were able to estimate not only crop yield but also levels of associated uncertainty. We found that the global average crop yield increased about 30% as the result of the optimal selection of planting day and that the seasonal forecast of crop yield had a large benefit in and near the eastern part of Brazil and India for maize and the northern area of China for soybean. In these countries, the effects of El Niño and Indian Ocean dipole are large. The results highlight the importance of developing a system to forecast global crop yields.

  11. A Socioanalytic Model of Maturity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogan, Robert; Roberts, Brent W.

    2004-01-01

    K0 describes a point of view on maturity that departs from earlier treatments in two ways. First, it rejects the popular assumption from humanistic psychology that maturity is a function of self-actualization and stipulates that maturity is related to certain performance capacities--namely, the ability to form lasting relationships and to achieve…

  12. Dissociation of motor maturation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DiMario, Francis J

    2003-06-01

    We prospectively acquired clinical data regarding the presentation, evaluation, and developmental progress of all patients identified with dissociated motor maturation to define their clinical outcomes. Children (N = 8) referred for evaluation of suspected cerebral palsy because of delayed sitting or walking and identified to have dissociated motor maturation were followed with serial clinical examination. All displayed the characteristic "sitting on air" posture while held in vertical suspension and had otherwise normal developmental assessments. This posture is composed of the hips held in flexion and abduction with the knees extended and feet plantar or dorsiflexed. Three children were initially evaluated at 10 months of age owing to absence of sitting and five other children were evaluated at a mean of 14 months (range 12-19 months) owing to inability to stand. Follow-up evaluations were conducted over a mean of 10.5 months (range 5-34 months). Five children were born prematurely at 34 to 36 weeks gestation. Denver Developmental Screening Test and general and neurologic examinations were normal except to note hypotonia in six children and the "sitting on air" posture in all of the children. Four children have older siblings or parents who "walked late" (after 15 months). On average, the children attained sitting by 8 months (range 7-10 months). One child did not crawl prior to independent walking, two children scooted rather than crawled, and five children crawled at an average of 13.5 months (range 10-16 months). All children cruised by a mean of 18 months (range 16-21.5 months) and attained independent walking by 20.1 months (range 18-25 months). Neuroimaging and serum creatine kinase enzyme testing were normal in two children who were tested. These eight children conform to the syndrome of dissociated motor maturation. The "sitting on air" posture serves as a diagnostic sign and anticipated excellent prognosis, but follow-up is required to ensure a normal

  13. Load forecasting for supermarket refrigeration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik; Aalborg Nielsen, Henrik

    This report presents a study of models for forecasting the load for supermarket refrigeration. The data used for building the forecasting models consists of load measurements, local climate measurements and weather forecasts. The load measurements are from a supermarket located in a village...... in Denmark. The load for refrigeration is the sum of all cabinets in the supermarket, both low and medium temperature cabinets, and spans a period of one year. As input to the forecasting models the ambient temperature observed near the supermarket together with weather forecasts are used. Every hour...... the hourly load for refrigeration for the following 42 hours is forecasted. The forecast models are adaptive linear time-series models which are fitted with a computationally efficient recursive least squares scheme. The dynamic relations between the inputs and the load is modeled by simple transfer...

  14. Hit Rate of Space Weather Forecasts of the Japanese Forecast Center and Analysis of Problematic Events on the Forecasts between June 2014 and March 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watari, S.; Kato, H.; Yamamoto, K.

    2015-12-01

    The hit rate of space weather forecasts issued by the Japanese forecast center in the National Institute of Information and Communications Technology (NICT) between June 2014 and March 2015 are compared with that by the persistence method. It is shown that the hit rate of the forecasts by the Japanese center is better than that by the persistence method. Several problematic events on the space weather forecasts during the same period are analyzed. Those events are (1) geomagnetic storms associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) on 9 September 2014 and on 15 March 2015 with different durations of southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), (2) a large active region, AR 12192 without CMEs, solar energetic particle events, and geomagnetic storms, (3) a geomagnetic storm on 7 January 2015 caused by a faint CME, and (4) disagreement between the in-situ observation at 1 AU and the prediction of the Potential Field Source Surface (PFSS) model on timing of sector crossing in January 2015.

  15. Methodical bases of geodemographic forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Катерина Сегіда

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with methodological features of the forecast of population size and composition. The essence and features of probabilistic demographic forecasting, methods, a component and dynamic ranks are considered; requirements to initial indicators for each type of the forecast are provided. It is noted that geo-demographic forecast is an important component of regional geo-demographic characteristic. Features of the demographic forecast development by component method (recursors of age are given, basic formulae of calculation, including the equation of demographic balance, a formula recursors taking into account gender and age indicators, survival coefficient are presented. The basic methodical principles of the demographic forecast are given by an extrapolation method (dynamic ranks, calculation features by means of the generalized indicators, such as extrapolation on the basis of indicators of an average pure gain, average growth rate and average rate of a gain are presented. To develop population forecast, the method of retrospective extrapolation (for the short-term forecast and a component method (for the mid-term forecast are mostly used. The example of such development by component method for gender and age structure of the population of Kharkiv region with step-by-step explanation of calculation is provided. The example of Kharkiv region’s population forecast development is provided by the method of dynamic ranks. Having carried out calculations of the main forecast indicators by administrative units, it is possible to determine features of further regional demographic development, to reveal internal territorial distinctions in demographic development. Application of separate forecasting methods allows to develop the forecast for certain indicators, however essential a variety, nonlinearity and not stationarity of the processes constituting demographic development forces to look +for new approaches and

  16. Forecasting Turbine Icing Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davis, Neil; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Clausen, Niels-Erik

    2012-01-01

    In this study, we present a method for forecasting icing events. The method is validated at two European wind farms in with known icing events. The icing model used was developed using current ice accretion methods, and newly developed ablation algorithms. The model is driven by inputs from the WRF...... mesoscale model, allowing for both climatological estimates of icing and short term icing forecasts. The current model was able to detect periods of icing reasonably well at the warmer site. However at the cold climate site, the model was not able to remove ice quickly enough leading to large ice...... accumulations, which have not been seen in observations. In addition to the model evaluation we were able to investigate the potential occurrence of ice induced power loss at two wind parks in Europe using observed data. We found that the potential loss during an icing event is large even when the turbine...

  17. Forecasting Infectious Disease Outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaman, J. L.

    2015-12-01

    Dynamic models of infectious disease systems abound and are used to study the epidemiological characteristics of disease outbreaks, the ecological mechanisms affecting transmission, and the suitability of various control and intervention strategies. The dynamics of disease transmission are non-linear and consequently difficult to forecast. Here, we describe combined model-inference frameworks developed for the prediction of infectious diseases. We show that accurate and reliable predictions of seasonal influenza outbreaks can be made using a mathematical model representing population-level influenza transmission dynamics that has been recursively optimized using ensemble data assimilation techniques and real-time estimates of influenza incidence. Operational real-time forecasts of influenza and other infectious diseases have been and are currently being generated.

  18. Forecasting carbon dioxide emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Xiaobing; Du, Ding

    2015-09-01

    This study extends the literature on forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by applying the reduced-form econometrics approach of Schmalensee et al. (1998) to a more recent sample period, the post-1997 period. Using the post-1997 period is motivated by the observation that the strengthening pace of global climate policy may have been accelerated since 1997. Based on our parameter estimates, we project 25% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 according to an economic and population growth scenario that is more consistent with recent global trends. Our forecasts are conservative due to that we do not have sufficient data to fully take into account recent developments in the global economy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Uranium price forecasting methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuller, D.M.

    1994-01-01

    This article reviews a number of forecasting methods that have been applied to uranium prices and compares their relative strengths and weaknesses. The methods reviewed are: (1) judgemental methods, (2) technical analysis, (3) time-series methods, (4) fundamental analysis, and (5) econometric methods. Historically, none of these methods has performed very well, but a well-thought-out model is still useful as a basis from which to adjust to new circumstances and try again

  20. Statistical methods for forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Abraham, Bovas

    2009-01-01

    The Wiley-Interscience Paperback Series consists of selected books that have been made more accessible to consumers in an effort to increase global appeal and general circulation. With these new unabridged softcover volumes, Wiley hopes to extend the lives of these works by making them available to future generations of statisticians, mathematicians, and scientists."This book, it must be said, lives up to the words on its advertising cover: ''Bridging the gap between introductory, descriptive approaches and highly advanced theoretical treatises, it provides a practical, intermediate level discussion of a variety of forecasting tools, and explains how they relate to one another, both in theory and practice.'' It does just that!"-Journal of the Royal Statistical Society"A well-written work that deals with statistical methods and models that can be used to produce short-term forecasts, this book has wide-ranging applications. It could be used in the context of a study of regression, forecasting, and time series ...

  1. PyForecastTools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2017-09-22

    The PyForecastTools package provides Python routines for calculating metrics for model validation, forecast verification and model comparison. For continuous predictands the package provides functions for calculating bias (mean error, mean percentage error, median log accuracy, symmetric signed bias), and for calculating accuracy (mean squared error, mean absolute error, mean absolute scaled error, normalized RMSE, median symmetric accuracy). Convenience routines to calculate the component parts (e.g. forecast error, scaled error) of each metric are also provided. To compare models the package provides: generic skill score; percent better. Robust measures of scale including median absolute deviation, robust standard deviation, robust coefficient of variation and the Sn estimator are all provided by the package. Finally, the package implements Python classes for NxN contingency tables. In the case of a multi-class prediction, accuracy and skill metrics such as proportion correct and the Heidke and Peirce skill scores are provided as object methods. The special case of a 2x2 contingency table inherits from the NxN class and provides many additional metrics for binary classification: probability of detection, probability of false detection, false alarm ration, threat score, equitable threat score, bias. Confidence intervals for many of these quantities can be calculated using either the Wald method or Agresti-Coull intervals.

  2. Tomato seeds maturity detection system based on chlorophyll fluorescence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Cuiling; Wang, Xiu; Meng, Zhijun

    2016-10-01

    Chlorophyll fluorescence intensity can be used as seed maturity and quality evaluation indicator. Chlorophyll fluorescence intensity of seed coats is tested to judge the level of chlorophyll content in seeds, and further to judge the maturity and quality of seeds. This research developed a detection system of tomato seeds maturity based on chlorophyll fluorescence spectrum technology, the system included an excitation light source unit, a fluorescent signal acquisition unit and a data processing unit. The excitation light source unit consisted of two high power LEDs, two radiators and two constant current power supplies, and it was designed to excite chlorophyll fluorescence of tomato seeds. The fluorescent signal acquisition unit was made up of a fluorescence spectrometer, an optical fiber, an optical fiber scaffolds and a narrowband filter. The data processing unit mainly included a computer. Tomato fruits of green ripe stage, discoloration stage, firm ripe stage and full ripe stage were harvested, and their seeds were collected directly. In this research, the developed tomato seeds maturity testing system was used to collect fluorescence spectrums of tomato seeds of different maturities. Principal component analysis (PCA) method was utilized to reduce the dimension of spectral data and extract principal components, and PCA was combined with linear discriminant analysis (LDA) to establish discriminant model of tomato seeds maturity, the discriminant accuracy was greater than 90%. Research results show that using chlorophyll fluorescence spectrum technology is feasible for seeds maturity detection, and the developed tomato seeds maturity testing system has high detection accuracy.

  3. Evolving forecasting classifications and applications in health forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soyiri IN

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Ireneous N Soyiri1,2, Daniel D Reidpath11Global Public Health, JCSMHS, MONASH University, Selangor, Malaysia; 2School of Public Health, University of Ghana, Legon, Accra, GhanaAbstract: Health forecasting forewarns the health community about future health situations and disease episodes so that health systems can better allocate resources and manage demand. The tools used for developing and measuring the accuracy and validity of health forecasts commonly are not defined although they are usually adapted forms of statistical procedures. This review identifies previous typologies used in classifying the forecasting methods commonly used in forecasting health conditions or situations. It then discusses the strengths and weaknesses of these methods and presents the choices available for measuring the accuracy of health-forecasting models, including a note on the discrepancies in the modes of validation.Keywords: health forecast, health data, electronic health records, accuracy, cross validation, method, strengths and limitations

  4. Functional dynamic factor models with application to yield curve forecasting

    KAUST Repository

    Hays, Spencer

    2012-09-01

    Accurate forecasting of zero coupon bond yields for a continuum of maturities is paramount to bond portfolio management and derivative security pricing. Yet a universal model for yield curve forecasting has been elusive, and prior attempts often resulted in a trade-off between goodness of fit and consistency with economic theory. To address this, herein we propose a novel formulation which connects the dynamic factor model (DFM) framework with concepts from functional data analysis: a DFM with functional factor loading curves. This results in a model capable of forecasting functional time series. Further, in the yield curve context we show that the model retains economic interpretation. Model estimation is achieved through an expectation- maximization algorithm, where the time series parameters and factor loading curves are simultaneously estimated in a single step. Efficient computing is implemented and a data-driven smoothing parameter is nicely incorporated. We show that our model performs very well on forecasting actual yield data compared with existing approaches, especially in regard to profit-based assessment for an innovative trading exercise. We further illustrate the viability of our model to applications outside of yield forecasting.

  5. Analysing UK real estate market forecast disagreement

    OpenAIRE

    McAllister, Patrick; Newell, G.; Matysiak, George

    2005-01-01

    Given the significance of forecasting in real estate investment decisions, this paper investigates forecast uncertainty and disagreement in real estate market forecasts. Using the Investment Property Forum (IPF) quarterly survey amongst UK independent real estate forecasters, these real estate forecasts are compared with actual real estate performance to assess a number of real estate forecasting issues in the UK over 1999-2004, including real estate forecast error, bias and consensus. The re...

  6. Correlation between dental maturity and cervical vertebral maturity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jianwei; Hu, Haikun; Guo, Jing; Liu, Zeping; Liu, Renkai; Li, Fan; Zou, Shujuan

    2010-12-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the association between dental and skeletal maturity. Digital panoramic radiographs and lateral skull cephalograms of 302 patients (134 boys and 168 girls, ranging from 8 to 16 years of age) were examined. Dental maturity was assessed by calcification stages of the mandibular canines, first and second premolars, and second molars, whereas skeletal maturity was estimated by the cervical vertebral maturation (CVM) stages. The Spearman rank-order correlation coefficient was used to measure the association between CVM stage and dental calcification stage of individual teeth. The mean chronologic age of girls was significantly lower than that of boys in each CVM stage. The Spearman rank-order correlation coefficients between dental maturity and cervical vertebral maturity ranged from 0.391 to 0.582 for girls and from 0.464 to 0.496 for boys (P cervical vertebral maturation stage. The development of the mandibular second molar in females and that of the mandibular canine in males had the strongest correlations with cervical vertebral maturity. Therefore, it is practical to consider the relationship between dental and skeletal maturity when planning orthodontic treatment. Copyright © 2010 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Robotic Technology: An Assessment and Forecast,

    Science.gov (United States)

    1984-07-01

    competitiveness of this industry requires the . .. use of the most cost-effective manufacturing techniques available. Beyond cost-effectiveness, sheer ...It 4-1 (1983). Nagel* R., ’ Robots: Not Yet Smart Enough.’ IEEE Spectrum 20, 78 (1983). Schwartz. J. and Sharir, ’On the Piano Movers’ Problem: V. The

  8. Forecast of Remote Underwater Sensing Technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-07-01

    attractive for use in space probe vehicles where measurement of planetary magnetic fields is desired. In this mode a three-axis device is used so that both...Acoustic Television," Oceans 󈨓, IEEL, p. 602, (1979). 62. Grimble, M. J.; Patton , R. J.; and Wise, 0. A.; "The Design of Dynamic Ship Positioning...S Cadnn rl Sonart ad TranIsponder N V i 0 dt io n" G eolI So c. -’Vi. Bu 11 1 1, 1-D47- 15D54, IJ-u. Occh iella , L . ;1 Pi ikel 1RH. - "A DoPpl er

  9. Essays on Technology and Forecasting in Macroeconomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samuels, Jon Devin

    2012-01-01

    The three chapters in this dissertation use disaggregated models and data to provide new insights on well-established questions in macroeconomics. In the first chapter, to analyze how productivity impacts the business cycle, I model aggregate production with a production possibility frontier that accommodates sector-and factor-biased productivity.…

  10. Air Quality Forecasting through Different Statistical and Artificial Intelligence Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, D.; Goyal, P.

    2014-12-01

    Urban air pollution forecasting has emerged as an acute problem in recent years because there are sever environmental degradation due to increase in harmful air pollutants in the ambient atmosphere. In this study, there are different types of statistical as well as artificial intelligence techniques are used for forecasting and analysis of air pollution over Delhi urban area. These techniques are principle component analysis (PCA), multiple linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN) and the forecasting are observed in good agreement with the observed concentrations through Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) at different locations in Delhi. But such methods suffers from disadvantages like they provide limited accuracy as they are unable to predict the extreme points i.e. the pollution maximum and minimum cut-offs cannot be determined using such approach. Also, such methods are inefficient approach for better output forecasting. But with the advancement in technology and research, an alternative to the above traditional methods has been proposed i.e. the coupling of statistical techniques with artificial Intelligence (AI) can be used for forecasting purposes. The coupling of PCA, ANN and fuzzy logic is used for forecasting of air pollutant over Delhi urban area. The statistical measures e.g., correlation coefficient (R), normalized mean square error (NMSE), fractional bias (FB) and index of agreement (IOA) of the proposed model are observed in better agreement with the all other models. Hence, the coupling of statistical and artificial intelligence can be use for the forecasting of air pollutant over urban area.

  11. Improving wave forecasting by integrating ensemble modelling and machine learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donncha, F.; Zhang, Y.; James, S. C.

    2017-12-01

    Modern smart-grid networks use technologies to instantly relay information on supply and demand to support effective decision making. Integration of renewable-energy resources with these systems demands accurate forecasting of energy production (and demand) capacities. For wave-energy converters, this requires wave-condition forecasting to enable estimates of energy production. Current operational wave forecasting systems exhibit substantial errors with wave-height RMSEs of 40 to 60 cm being typical, which limits the reliability of energy-generation predictions thereby impeding integration with the distribution grid. In this study, we integrate physics-based models with statistical learning aggregation techniques that combine forecasts from multiple, independent models into a single "best-estimate" prediction of the true state. The Simulating Waves Nearshore physics-based model is used to compute wind- and currents-augmented waves in the Monterey Bay area. Ensembles are developed based on multiple simulations perturbing input data (wave characteristics supplied at the model boundaries and winds) to the model. A learning-aggregation technique uses past observations and past model forecasts to calculate a weight for each model. The aggregated forecasts are compared to observation data to quantify the performance of the model ensemble and aggregation techniques. The appropriately weighted ensemble model outperforms an individual ensemble member with regard to forecasting wave conditions.

  12. Ethical issues in forecasting of natural hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinti, Stefano

    2014-05-01

    Natural hazards have by definition a large impact on the society and, therefore, since the beginning of science one of the major aspiration of mankind has been the prediction of natural calamities in the attempt to avoid or to mitigate their effects. In modern societies where science and technology have gained a foundational role, forecasts and predictions have become part of the every-day life and may also influence state policies and economic development. And in parallel with the growing importance of forecasting, even ethical problems for forecasters and for forecasters communities have started to appear. In this work two of the many geo-ethical issues are considered mostly: 1) how to cope with uncertainties that are inherently associated with any forecast statement; 2) how to handle predictions in scientific journals and scientific conferences The former issue is mainly related to the impact of predictions on the general public and on managers and operators in the civil protection field. Forecasters operate in specific contexts that 1) may change from country to country, depending on the local adopted best practices, but also, which is more constraining, on the local legal regulations and laws; 2) may change from discipline to discipline according to the development of the specific knowhow and the range of the forecast (from minutes to centuries) The second issue has to do with the communication of the scientific results on predictions and on prediction methods to the audience mainly composed of scientists, and involves one of the basic elements of science. In principle, scientists should use scientific communication means (papers in scientific journals, conferences, …) to illustrate results that are sound and certain, or the methods by means of which they conduct their research. But scientists involved in predictions have inherently to do with uncertainties, and, since there is no common agreement on how to deal with them, there is the risk that scientific

  13. Ensemble hydromoeteorological forecasting in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lucatero Villasenor, Diana

    of the main sources of uncertainty in hydrological forecasts. This is the reason why substantiated efforts to include information from Numerical Weather Predictors (NWP) or General Circulation Models (GCM) have been made over the last couple of decades. The present thesis expects to advance the field...... forecasts only about 15% and ET0 being the lowest at 15% for some months. The lowest skill of ET0 can be attributable to the combination of both T and incoming shortwave radiation (ISWR) bias from the GCM in addition to the added uncertainty for the model of the ET0 chosen (Makkink formula). Attempts...... steps. First, GCM-based streamflow forecasts exhibit biases that increase with lead time and, although these forecasts are sharper than the ESP forecasts, these biases lead to lower accuracy relative to ESP forecasts, especially at lead times larger than two months. Corrected GCM-based streamflow...

  14. Evaluation of Probabilistic Disease Forecasts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, Gareth; Burnett, Fiona J

    2017-10-01

    The statistical evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts often involves calculation of metrics defined conditionally on disease status, such as sensitivity and specificity. However, for the purpose of disease management decision making, metrics defined conditionally on the result of the forecast-predictive values-are also important, although less frequently reported. In this context, the application of scoring rules in the evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts is discussed. An index of separation with application in the evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts, described in the clinical literature, is also considered and its relation to scoring rules illustrated. Scoring rules provide a principled basis for the evaluation of probabilistic forecasts used in plant disease management. In particular, the decomposition of scoring rules into interpretable components is an advantageous feature of their application in the evaluation of disease forecasts.

  15. The MST radar technique: Requirements for operational weather forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, M. F.

    1983-01-01

    There is a feeling that the accuracy of mesoscale forecasts for spatial scales of less than 1000 km and time scales of less than 12 hours can be improved significantly if resources are applied to the problem in an intensive effort over the next decade. Since the most dangerous and damaging types of weather occur at these scales, there are major advantages to be gained if such a program is successful. The interest in improving short term forecasting is evident. The technology at the present time is sufficiently developed, both in terms of new observing systems and the computing power to handle the observations, to warrant an intensive effort to improve stormscale forecasting. An assessment of the extent to which the so-called MST radar technique fulfills the requirements for an operational mesoscale observing network is reviewed and the extent to which improvements in various types of forecasting could be expected if such a network is put into operation are delineated.

  16. An Electrical Energy Consumption Monitoring and Forecasting System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. L. Rojas-Renteria

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Electricity consumption is currently an issue of great interest for power companies that need an as much as accurate profile for controlling the installed systems but also for designing future expansions and alterations. Detailed monitoring has proved to be valuable for both power companies and consumers. Further, as smart grid technology is bound to result to increasingly flexible rates, an accurate forecast is bound to prove valuable in the future. In this paper, a monitoring and forecasting system is investigated. The monitoring system was installed in an actual building and the recordings were used to design and evaluate the forecasting system, based on an artificial neural network. Results show that the system can provide detailed monitoring and also an accurate forecast for a building’s consumption.

  17. IEA Wind Task 36 Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giebel, Gregor; Cline, Joel; Frank, Helmut; Shaw, Will; Pinson, Pierre; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Kariniotakis, Georges; Sempreviva, Anna Maria; Draxl, Caroline

    2017-04-01

    Wind power forecasts have been used operatively for over 20 years. Despite this fact, there are still several possibilities to improve the forecasts, both from the weather prediction side and from the usage of the forecasts. The new International Energy Agency (IEA) Task on Wind Power Forecasting tries to organise international collaboration, among national weather centres with an interest and/or large projects on wind forecast improvements (NOAA, DWD, UK MetOffice, …) and operational forecaster and forecast users. The Task is divided in three work packages: Firstly, a collaboration on the improvement of the scientific basis for the wind predictions themselves. This includes numerical weather prediction model physics, but also widely distributed information on accessible datasets for verification. Secondly, we will be aiming at an international pre-standard (an IEA Recommended Practice) on benchmarking and comparing wind power forecasts, including probabilistic forecasts aiming at industry and forecasters alike. This WP will also organise benchmarks, in cooperation with the IEA Task WakeBench. Thirdly, we will be engaging end users aiming at dissemination of the best practice in the usage of wind power predictions, especially probabilistic ones. The Operating Agent is Gregor Giebel of DTU, Co-Operating Agent is Joel Cline of the US Department of Energy. Collaboration in the task is solicited from everyone interested in the forecasting business. We will collaborate with IEA Task 31 Wakebench, which developed the Windbench benchmarking platform, which this task will use for forecasting benchmarks. The task runs for three years, 2016-2018. Main deliverables are an up-to-date list of current projects and main project results, including datasets which can be used by researchers around the world to improve their own models, an IEA Recommended Practice on performance evaluation of probabilistic forecasts, a position paper regarding the use of probabilistic forecasts

  18. Earthquake forecasting and its verification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. R. Holliday

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available No proven method is currently available for the reliable short time prediction of earthquakes (minutes to months. However, it is possible to make probabilistic hazard assessments for earthquake risk. In this paper we discuss a new approach to earthquake forecasting based on a pattern informatics (PI method which quantifies temporal variations in seismicity. The output, which is based on an association of small earthquakes with future large earthquakes, is a map of areas in a seismogenic region ('hotspots'' where earthquakes are forecast to occur in a future 10-year time span. This approach has been successfully applied to California, to Japan, and on a worldwide basis. Because a sharp decision threshold is used, these forecasts are binary--an earthquake is forecast either to occur or to not occur. The standard approach to the evaluation of a binary forecast is the use of the relative (or receiver operating characteristic (ROC diagram, which is a more restrictive test and less subject to bias than maximum likelihood tests. To test our PI method, we made two types of retrospective forecasts for California. The first is the PI method and the second is a relative intensity (RI forecast based on the hypothesis that future large earthquakes will occur where most smaller earthquakes have occurred in the recent past. While both retrospective forecasts are for the ten year period 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2009, we performed an interim analysis 5 years into the forecast. The PI method out performs the RI method under most circumstances.

  19. Medium-range fire weather forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.O. Roads; K. Ueyoshi; S.C. Chen; J. Alpert; F. Fujioka

    1991-01-01

    The forecast skill of theNational Meteorological Center's medium range forecast (MRF) numerical forecasts of fire weather variables is assessed for the period June 1,1988 to May 31,1990. Near-surface virtual temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and a derived fire weather index (FWI) are forecast well by the MRF model. However, forecast relative humidity has...

  20. Forecasting freight flows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyk-Jensen, Stéphanie

    2011-01-01

    model. The analysis uses a structural relationship to explain the structure of the exchange of the goods—a relationship that can be used in the year of forecast. This article also provides a new methodology for converting monetary aggregates into quantity aggregates. The resulting commodity growth rates....... This article models long-term dynamic physical trade flows and estimates a dynamic panel data model for foreign trade for the EU15 and two countries from the EFTA (European Free Trade Association) 1967–2002. The analysis suggests that a dynamic three-way-effects gravity equation is the best-fitted econometric...

  1. Utility usage forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosking, Jonathan R. M.; Natarajan, Ramesh

    2017-08-22

    The computer creates a utility demand forecast model for weather parameters by receiving a plurality of utility parameter values, wherein each received utility parameter value corresponds to a weather parameter value. Determining that a range of weather parameter values lacks a sufficient amount of corresponding received utility parameter values. Determining one or more utility parameter values that corresponds to the range of weather parameter values. Creating a model which correlates the received and the determined utility parameter values with the corresponding weather parameters values.

  2. Forecast of useful energy for the TIMES-Norway model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosenberg, Eva

    2012-07-25

    A regional forecast of useful energy demand in seven Norwegian regions is calculated based on an earlier work with a national forecast. This forecast will be input to the energy system model TIMES-Norway and analyses will result in forecasts of energy use of different energy carriers with varying external conditions (not included in this report). The forecast presented here describes the methodology used and the resulting forecast of useful energy. lt is based on information of the long-term development of the economy by the Ministry of Finance, projections of population growths from Statistics Norway and several other studies. The definition of a forecast of useful energy demand is not absolute, but depends on the purpose. One has to be careful not to include parts that are a part of the energy system model, such as energy efficiency measures. In the forecast presented here the influence of new building regulations and the prohibition of production of incandescent light bulbs in EU etc. are included. Other energy efficiency measures such as energy management, heat pumps, tightening of leaks etc. are modelled as technologies to invest in and are included in the TIMES-Norway model. The elasticity between different energy carriers are handled by the TIMES-Norway model and some elasticity is also included as the possibility to invest in energy efficiency measures. The forecast results in an increase of the total useful energy from 2006 to 2050 by 18 o/o. The growth is expected to be highest in the regions South and East. The industry remains at a constant level in the base case and increased or reduced energy demand is analysed as different scenarios with the TIMES-Norway model. The most important driver is the population growth. Together with the assumptions made it results in increased useful energy demand in the household and service sectors of 25 o/o and 57 % respectively.(au)

  3. On the Influence of Weather Forecast Errors in Short-Term Load Forecasting Models

    OpenAIRE

    Fay, D.; Ringwood, John; Condon, M.

    2004-01-01

    Weather information is an important factor in load forecasting models. This weather information usually takes the form of actual weather readings. However, online operation of load forecasting models requires the use of weather forecasts, with associated weather forecast errors. A technique is proposed to model weather forecast errors to reflect current accuracy. A load forecasting model is then proposed which combines the forecasts of several load forecasting models. This approach allows the...

  4. Verification of ECMWF and ECMWF/MACC's global and direct irradiance forecasts with respect to solar electricity production forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Schroedter-Homscheidt

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The successful electricity grid integration of solar energy into day-ahead markets requires at least hourly resolved 48 h forecasts. Technologies as photovoltaics and non-concentrating solar thermal technologies make use of global horizontal irradiance (GHI forecasts, while all concentrating technologies both from the photovoltaic and the thermal sector require direct normal irradiances (DNI. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF has recently changed towards providing direct as well as global irradiances. Additionally, the MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition & Climate near-real time services provide daily analysis and forecasts of aerosol properties in preparation of the upcoming European Copernicus programme. The operational ECMWF/IFS (Integrated Forecast System forecast system will in the medium term profit from the Copernicus service aerosol forecasts. Therefore, within the MACC‑II project specific experiment runs were performed allowing for the assessment of the performance gain of these potential future capabilities. Also the potential impact of providing forecasts with hourly output resolution compared to three-hourly resolved forecasts is investigated. The inclusion of the new aerosol climatology in October 2003 improved both the GHI and DNI forecasts remarkably, while the change towards a new radiation scheme in 2007 only had minor and partly even unfavourable impacts on the performance indicators. For GHI, larger RMSE (root mean square error values are found for broken/overcast conditions than for scattered cloud fields. For DNI, the findings are opposite with larger RMSE values for scattered clouds compared to overcast/broken cloud situations. The introduction of direct irradiances as an output parameter in the operational IFS version has not resulted in a general performance improvement with respect to biases and RMSE compared to the widely used Skartveit et al. (1998 global to direct irradiance

  5. Flood Forecasting Based on TIGGE Precipitation Ensemble Forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinyin Ye

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available TIGGE (THORPEX International Grand Global Ensemble was a major part of the THORPEX (Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment. It integrates ensemble precipitation products from all the major forecast centers in the world and provides systematic evaluation on the multimodel ensemble prediction system. Development of meteorologic-hydrologic coupled flood forecasting model and early warning model based on the TIGGE precipitation ensemble forecast can provide flood probability forecast, extend the lead time of the flood forecast, and gain more time for decision-makers to make the right decision. In this study, precipitation ensemble forecast products from ECMWF, NCEP, and CMA are used to drive distributed hydrologic model TOPX. We focus on Yi River catchment and aim to build a flood forecast and early warning system. The results show that the meteorologic-hydrologic coupled model can satisfactorily predict the flow-process of four flood events. The predicted occurrence time of peak discharges is close to the observations. However, the magnitude of the peak discharges is significantly different due to various performances of the ensemble prediction systems. The coupled forecasting model can accurately predict occurrence of the peak time and the corresponding risk probability of peak discharge based on the probability distribution of peak time and flood warning, which can provide users a strong theoretical foundation and valuable information as a promising new approach.

  6. Probabilistic energy forecasting: Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014 and beyond

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hong, Tao; Pinson, Pierre; Fan, Shu

    2016-01-01

    The energy industry has been going through a significant modernization process over the last decade. Its infrastructure is being upgraded rapidly. The supply, demand and prices are becoming more volatile and less predictable than ever before. Even its business model is being challenged fundamenta...... competition with four tracks on load, price, wind and solar forecasting, which attracted 581 participants from 61 countries. We conclude the paper with 12 predictions for the next decade of energy forecasting.......The energy industry has been going through a significant modernization process over the last decade. Its infrastructure is being upgraded rapidly. The supply, demand and prices are becoming more volatile and less predictable than ever before. Even its business model is being challenged...... fundamentally. In this competitive and dynamic environment, many decision-making processes rely on probabilistic forecasts to quantify the uncertain future. Although most of the papers in the energy forecasting literature focus on point or singlevalued forecasts, the research interest in probabilistic energy...

  7. Global warming forecasts unreliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baker, A.B.

    1993-01-01

    This paper reports the opinions of a series of experts who have recently commented on the reliability of predictions of global warning in relation to observed and forecasted increases in carbon dioxide emissions. One of the more difficult to explain observations, evidenced through the analysis of past meteorological data, was the rapid increase in global temperature that took place during the period preceding 1940 and which was followed by a gradual decrease, during a thirty year period of heightened industrialization and consumption of fossil fuels, up to 1970 when global temperatures began again to rise rapidly. Variations in solar activity was suggested to explain this apparently anomalous trend in global temperatures. This question as to the existence of a strict correlation between global warming and rises in carbon dioxide emissions, as well as, forecasted increases in concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide due to the expected population growth in China are putting a strain on attempts by OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) environmental policy makers to gain support for energy tax proposals

  8. Whose Maturity is it Anyway?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lasrado, Lester Allan; Vatrapu, Ravi; Mukkamala, Raghava Rao

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents results from an ongoing empirical study that seeks to understand the influence of different quantitative methods on the design and assessment of maturity models. Although there have been many academic publications on maturity models, there exists a significant lack of understa...

  9. Location specific forecasting of maximum and minimum ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    . The global NWP models, though able to provide reasonably good short- to medium-range weather forecasts, have comparatively less skill in forecasting surface parameters. It is well known that NWP model forecasts contain systematic biases ...

  10. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) [1 Deg.

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) is a weather forecast model made up of 21 separate forecasts, or ensemble members. The National Centers for Environmental...

  11. Improving Local Weather Forecasts for Agricultural Applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Doeswijk, T.G.; Keesman, K.J.

    2005-01-01

    For controlling agricultural systems, weather forecasts can be of substantial importance. Studies have shown that forecast errors can be reduced in terms of bias and standard deviation using forecasts and meteorological measurements from one specific meteorological station. For agricultural systems

  12. Analysis of Big Data Maturity Stage in Hospitality Industry

    OpenAIRE

    Shabani, Neda; Munir, Arslan; Bose, Avishek

    2017-01-01

    Big data analytics has an extremely significant impact on many areas in all businesses and industries including hospitality. This study aims to guide information technology (IT) professionals in hospitality on their big data expedition. In particular, the purpose of this study is to identify the maturity stage of the big data in hospitality industry in an objective way so that hotels be able to understand their progress, and realize what it will take to get to the next stage of big data matur...

  13. Guidelines for forecasting energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sonino, T.

    1976-11-01

    Four methodologies for forecasting energy demand are reviewed here after considering the role of energy in the economy and the analysis of energy use in different economic sectors. The special case of Israel is considered throughout, and some forecasts for energy demands in the year 2000 are presented. An energy supply mix that may be considered feasible is proposed. (author)

  14. Forecasting the future of biodiversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fitzpatrick, M. C.; Sanders, Nate; Ferrier, Simon

    2011-01-01

    , but their application to forecasting climate change impacts on biodiversity has been limited. Here we compare forecasts of changes in patterns of ant biodiversity in North America derived from ensembles of single-species models to those from a multi-species modeling approach, Generalized Dissimilarity Modeling (GDM...... climate change impacts on biodiversity....

  15. Forecasting Using Random Subspace Methods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    T. Boot (Tom); D. Nibbering (Didier)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractRandom subspace methods are a novel approach to obtain accurate forecasts in high-dimensional regression settings. We provide a theoretical justification of the use of random subspace methods and show their usefulness when forecasting monthly macroeconomic variables. We focus on two

  16. Now, Here's the Weather Forecast...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Mathew

    2013-01-01

    The Met Office has a long history of weather forecasting, creating tailored weather forecasts for customers across the world. Based in Exeter, the Met Office is also home to the Met Office Hadley Centre, a world-leading centre for the study of climate change and its potential impacts. Climate information from the Met Office Hadley Centre is used…

  17. Forecasting Macroeconomic Labour Market Flows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wilke, Ralf

    2017-01-01

    Forecasting labour market flows is important for budgeting and decision-making in government departments and public administration. Macroeconomic forecasts are normally obtained from time series data. In this article, we follow another approach that uses individual-level statistical analysis...

  18. Regional-seasonal weather forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abarbanel, H.; Foley, H.; MacDonald, G.; Rothaus, O.; Rudermann, M.; Vesecky, J.

    1980-08-01

    In the interest of allocating heating fuels optimally, the state-of-the-art for seasonal weather forecasting is reviewed. A model using an enormous data base of past weather data is contemplated to improve seasonal forecasts, but present skills do not make that practicable. 90 references. (PSB)

  19. TECHNOLOGY MATURATION OF DISPERSION TECHNOLOGY TO AUGMENT BIOREMEDIATION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    J. NEELY - 54GO

    2000-07-01

    The data obtained from this preliminary short-term project demonstrated that dispersants such as 54GO are effective in accelerating the bio-remediation of soils containing contamination from waste oils, diesel, creosote and manufactured gas plant waste. This acceleration appears to be in the observation that 54GO quickly separates the hydrocarbon wastes from the soil particles, thereby allowing closer contact with the microbes. The project time limitations impacted the scope of data but was able to demonstrate a general reduction in the levels of contaminates. In this project only Total Petroleum Hydrocarbons [TPH] and 17 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons [PAH] were analyzed. These were chosen because they are standardized by EPA methodology. The raw data from these analytical methods indicate that there are many more intermediate metabolizes from the bio-remediation process that were not identified or measured [a limitation of the 17 analyte EPA Method 8270 protocol]. The limited data from these bio-reactors indicates that when both 54GO [dispersant] and stress selected microbes are used the reduction of contaminate metabolizes is the greatest. The use of microbes alone was also effective, but not consistent and to a lesser degree. An additional observation with 54GO, either alone or with microbes is that significant amounts of hydrocarbons were extracted or released from the test soils and became a separate phase floating on the surface of these bio-reactors. The levels of floating oil in these bio-reactors made mixing and sampling difficult tasks. This latter effect of, 54GO, indicates that this family of dispersants are excellent candidates for classic soil washing techniques and may be better served by pre-treating waste soils before mixing with microbes. It is estimated that 75% or more of the hydrocarbons were in the oil phase in these bio-reactors even in low water conditions [saturated soil].

  20. Effective Feature Preprocessing for Time Series Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Junhua; Dong, Zhaoyang; Xu, Zhao

    2006-01-01

    Time series forecasting is an important area in data mining research. Feature preprocessing techniques have significant influence on forecasting accuracy, therefore are essential in a forecasting model. Although several feature preprocessing techniques have been applied in time series forecasting...... performance in time series forecasting. It is demonstrated in our experiment that, effective feature preprocessing can significantly enhance forecasting accuracy. This research can be a useful guidance for researchers on effectively selecting feature preprocessing techniques and integrating them with time...

  1. Method of forecasting power distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaneto, Kunikazu.

    1981-01-01

    Purpose: To obtain forecasting results at high accuracy by reflecting the signals from neutron detectors disposed in the reactor core on the forecasting results. Method: An on-line computer transfers, to a simulator, those process data such as temperature and flow rate for coolants in each of the sections and various measuring signals such as control rod positions from the nuclear reactor. The simulator calculates the present power distribution before the control operation. The signals from the neutron detectors at each of the positions in the reactor core are estimated from the power distribution and errors are determined based on the estimated values and the measured values to determine the smooth error distribution in the axial direction. Then, input conditions at the time to be forecast are set by a data setter. The simulator calculates the forecast power distribution after the control operation based on the set conditions. The forecast power distribution is corrected using the error distribution. (Yoshino, Y.)

  2. A prospective earthquake forecast experiment for Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yokoi, Sayoko; Nanjo, Kazuyoshi; Tsuruoka, Hiroshi; Hirata, Naoshi

    2013-04-01

    number and spatial distribution. Due to the multiple rounds of the experiment, we are now understanding the stability of models, robustness of model selection and earthquake predictability in each region beyond stochastic fluctuations of seismicity. We plan to use the results for design of 3 dimensional earthquake forecasting model in Kanto region, which is supported by the special project for reducing vulnerability for urban mega earthquake disasters from Ministy of Education, Culture, Sports and Technology of Japan.

  3. Assessment of storm forecast

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Huus Bjerge, Martin

    at analysing the ability of existing forecast tools to predict storms at the Horns Rev 2 wind farm. The focus will be on predicting the time where the wind turbine will need to shut down to protect itself, e.g. the time where wind speed exceeds 25 m/s. At the same time, the planned shut-down should cost...... storms was analysed based on historical meteorological data available at Risø DTU and dynamically down-scaled to the Horns Rev 2 wind farm level. This solution was chosen due to the lack of measurements. Moreover, since the project started, there were four events during which Horns Rev 2 wind farm...

  4. The Weather Forecast Using Data Mining Research Based on Cloud Computing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, ZhanJie; Mazharul Mujib, A. B. M.

    2017-10-01

    Weather forecasting has been an important application in meteorology and one of the most scientifically and technologically challenging problem around the world. In my study, we have analyzed the use of data mining techniques in forecasting weather. This paper proposes a modern method to develop a service oriented architecture for the weather information systems which forecast weather using these data mining techniques. This can be carried out by using Artificial Neural Network and Decision tree Algorithms and meteorological data collected in Specific time. Algorithm has presented the best results to generate classification rules for the mean weather variables. The results showed that these data mining techniques can be enough for weather forecasting.

  5. Environmental noise forecasting based on support vector machine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Yumei; Zan, Xinwu; Chen, Tianyi; Xiang, Shihan

    2018-01-01

    As an important pollution source, the noise pollution is always the researcher's focus. Especially in recent years, the noise pollution is seriously harmful to the human beings' environment, so the research about the noise pollution is a very hot spot. Some noise monitoring technologies and monitoring systems are applied in the environmental noise test, measurement and evaluation. But, the research about the environmental noise forecasting is weak. In this paper, a real-time environmental noise monitoring system is introduced briefly. This monitoring system is working in Mianyang City, Sichuan Province. It is monitoring and collecting the environmental noise about more than 20 enterprises in this district. Based on the large amount of noise data, the noise forecasting by the Support Vector Machine (SVM) is studied in detail. Compared with the time series forecasting model and the artificial neural network forecasting model, the SVM forecasting model has some advantages such as the smaller data size, the higher precision and stability. The noise forecasting results based on the SVM can provide the important and accuracy reference to the prevention and control of the environmental noise.

  6. Towards Energy Efficiency: Forecasting Indoor Temperature via Multivariate Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Pardo

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The small medium large system (SMLsystem is a house built at the Universidad CEU Cardenal Herrera (CEU-UCH for participation in the Solar Decathlon 2013 competition. Several technologies have been integrated to reduce power consumption. One of these is a forecasting system based on artificial neural networks (ANNs, which is able to predict indoor temperature in the near future using captured data by a complex monitoring system as the input. A study of the impact on forecasting performance of different covariate combinations is presented in this paper. Additionally, a comparison of ANNs with the standard statistical forecasting methods is shown. The research in this paper has been focused on forecasting the indoor temperature of a house, as it is directly related to HVAC—heating, ventilation and air conditioning—system consumption. HVAC systems at the SMLsystem house represent 53:89% of the overall power consumption. The energy used to maintain temperature was measured to be 30%–38:9% of the energy needed to lower it. Hence, these forecasting measures allow the house to adapt itself to future temperature conditions by using home automation in an energy-efficient manner. Experimental results show a high forecasting accuracy and therefore, they might be used to efficiently control an HVAC system.

  7. Automated yield forecasting in a high product mix ASIC facility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barber, Duane; Giewont, Mark; Hanson, Jeff; Shen, Jun

    2005-05-01

    Yield forecasting is a key component in running a successful semiconductor fab. It is also a significant challenge for facilities such as ASIC houses, which fabricate a wide range of devices using multiple technologies. Yield forecasting takes on increased significance in these environments, with new products introduced frequently and many products running only in small numbers. An accurate yield prediction system can greatly accelerate the process of identifying design bugs, test program issues and process integration problems. To this end, we have constructed a forecasting model geared for our ASIC manufacturing line. The model will accommodate an arbitrary number of design and/or process elements, each with an associated defectivity term. In addition, we have automated the generation of the yield forecast through passively linking to the already existing EDA design tools and scripts used by LSI Logic. Once the model is constructed, an automated query engine can extract the design and process parameters for any requested device, insert the data into the forecasting model, and deliver the resulting yield prediction. The actual yield for any lot or group of lots may thus be compared to the forecast, greatly assisting yield enhancement activities. This is especially useful for prototype lots and low-volume devices, for which it eliminates a great deal of manual computation and searching of design files. Using the model in conjunction with the query engine, any deviations from expected yield performance are generated automatically, quickly and efficiently highlighting opportunities for improvement.

  8. Waste Information Management System with Integrated Transportation Forecast Data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Upadhyay, H.; Quintero, W.; Shoffner, P.; Lagos, L.

    2009-01-01

    The Waste Information Management System with Integrated Transportation Forecast Data was developed to support the Department of Energy (DOE) mandated accelerated cleanup program. The schedule compression required close coordination and a comprehensive review and prioritization of the barriers that impeded treatment and disposition of the waste streams at each site. Many issues related to site waste treatment and disposal were potential critical path issues under the accelerated schedules. In order to facilitate accelerated cleanup initiatives, waste managers at DOE field sites and at DOE Headquarters in Washington, D.C., needed timely waste forecast and transportation information regarding the volumes and types of waste that would be generated by the DOE sites over the next 40 years. Each local DOE site has historically collected, organized, and displayed site waste forecast information in separate and unique systems. However, waste and shipment information from all sites needed a common application to allow interested parties to understand and view the complete complex-wide picture. The Waste Information Management System with Integrated Transportation Forecast Data allows identification of total forecasted waste volumes, material classes, disposition sites, choke points, technological or regulatory barriers to treatment and disposal, along with forecasted waste transportation information by rail, truck and inter-modal shipments. The Applied Research Center (ARC) at Florida International University (FIU) in Miami, Florida, has deployed the web-based forecast and transportation system and is responsible for updating the waste forecast and transportation data on a regular basis to ensure the long-term viability and value of this system. (authors)

  9. Probabilistic Price Forecasting for Day-Ahead and Intraday Markets: Beyond the Statistical Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José R. Andrade

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Forecasting the hourly spot price of day-ahead and intraday markets is particularly challenging in electric power systems characterized by high installed capacity of renewable energy technologies. In particular, periods with low and high price levels are difficult to predict due to a limited number of representative cases in the historical dataset, which leads to forecast bias problems and wide forecast intervals. Moreover, these markets also require the inclusion of multiple explanatory variables, which increases the complexity of the model without guaranteeing a forecasting skill improvement. This paper explores information from daily futures contract trading and forecast of the daily average spot price to correct point and probabilistic forecasting bias. It also shows that an adequate choice of explanatory variables and use of simple models like linear quantile regression can lead to highly accurate spot price point and probabilistic forecasts. In terms of point forecast, the mean absolute error was 3.03 €/MWh for day-ahead market and a maximum value of 2.53 €/MWh was obtained for intraday session 6. The probabilistic forecast results show sharp forecast intervals and deviations from perfect calibration below 7% for all market sessions.

  10. Stochastic model of forecasting spare parts demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan S. Milojević

    2012-01-01

    spare part has its own failure intensity; therefore, it is necessary to conduct a complete procedure for each part. If the average number of components of a complex asset were about 5000, along with the existence of a large number of resources, the forecasting by the trend extrapolating would practically require the newest information technologies. However, the analysis shows that in most cases 80-90% of component parts have a longer life than the asset itself. In addition, it is shown that during the life of the asset, these components do not fail, and that 10-15% of component parts have only rare failures (post optimal analysis of spare parts normative or do not show any failing tendency meaning that failures are random. This procedure remains to be applied to 2-4% of component parts. It does not present a significant problem due to the process automation. This model enables us to determine the parts to which the trend extrapolation procedure should be applied. Forecast is obtained by the use of the second model to existing data. The trend extrapolation forecast or any other kind of forecast does not need to be done for those spare parts for which the long time forecast is close to zero. Provision of spare parts for the maintenance system considering the range, quantity, time and place is crucial for successful functioning of the maintenance system and ultimately for the accuracy of material resources. On the other hand, stocks of spare parts are costly and required to be reduced. Costs need to be minimized while ensuring the successful functioning of the maintenance system.

  11. Advances in electric power and energy systems load and price forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    2017-01-01

    A comprehensive review of state-of-the-art approaches to power systems forecasting from the most respected names in the field, internationally. Advances in Electric Power and Energy Systems is the first book devoted exclusively to a subject of increasing urgency to power systems planning and operations. Written for practicing engineers, researchers, and post-grads concerned with power systems planning and forecasting, this book brings together contributions from many of the world’s foremost names in the field who address a range of critical issues, from forecasting power system load to power system pricing to post-storm service restoration times, river flow forecasting, and more. In a time of ever-increasing energy demands, mounting concerns over the environmental impacts of power generation, and the emergence of new, smart-grid technologies, electricity price forecasting has assumed a prominent role within both the academic and industrial ar nas. Short-run forecasting of electricity prices has become nece...

  12. Technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Online-Offline, 1998

    1998-01-01

    Focuses on technology, on advances in such areas as aeronautics, electronics, physics, the space sciences, as well as computers and the attendant progress in medicine, robotics, and artificial intelligence. Describes educational resources for elementary and middle school students, including Web sites, CD-ROMs and software, videotapes, books,…

  13. Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) Operational Forecasts

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) produced by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is a fully coupled model representing the...

  14. Digital Marketing Maturity Models: Overview and Comparison

    OpenAIRE

    Elina Bakhtieva

    2017-01-01

    The variety of available digital tools, strategies and activities might confuse and disorient even an experienced marketer. This applies in particular to B2B companies, which are usually less flexible in uptaking of digital technology than B2C companies. B2B companies are lacking a framework that corresponds to the specifics of the B2B business, and which helps to evaluate a company’s capabilities and to choose an appropriate path. A B2B digital marketing maturity model helps to fill this gap...

  15. Recent advances in flood forecasting and flood risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Arduino

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent large floods in Europe have led to increased interest in research and development of flood forecasting systems. Some of these events have been provoked by some of the wettest rainfall periods on record which has led to speculation that such extremes are attributable in some measure to anthropogenic global warming and represent the beginning of a period of higher flood frequency. Whilst current trends in extreme event statistics will be difficult to discern, conclusively, there has been a substantial increase in the frequency of high floods in the 20th century for basins greater than 2x105 km2. There is also increasing that anthropogenic forcing of climate change may lead to an increased probability of extreme precipitation and, hence, of flooding. There is, therefore, major emphasis on the improvement of operational flood forecasting systems in Europe, with significant European Community spending on research and development on prototype forecasting systems and flood risk management projects. This Special Issue synthesises the most relevant scientific and technological results presented at the International Conference on Flood Forecasting in Europe held in Rotterdam from 3-5 March 2003. During that meeting 150 scientists, forecasters and stakeholders from four continents assembled to present their work and current operational best practice and to discuss future directions of scientific and technological efforts in flood prediction and prevention. The papers presented at the conference fall into seven themes, as follows.

  16. Black Sea coastal forecasting system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. I. Kubryakov

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The Black Sea coastal nowcasting and forecasting system was built within the framework of EU FP6 ECOOP (European COastalshelf sea OPerational observing and forecasting system project for five regions: the south-western basin along the coasts of Bulgaria and Turkey, the north-western shelf along the Romanian and Ukrainian coasts, coastal zone around of the Crimea peninsula, the north-eastern Russian coastal zone and the coastal zone of Georgia. The system operates in the real-time mode during the ECOOP project and afterwards. The forecasts include temperature, salinity and current velocity fields. Ecosystem model operates in the off-line mode near the Crimea coast.

  17. Forecasts: uncertain, inaccurate and biased?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nicolaisen, Morten Skou; Ambrasaite, Inga; Salling, Kim Bang

    2012-01-01

    Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) is the dominating methodology for appraisal of transport infrastructure projects across the globe. In order to adequately assess the costs and benefits of such projects two types of forecasts are crucial to the validity of the appraisal. First are the forecasts of cons....... It is recommended that more attention is given to monitoring completed projects so future forecasts can benefit from better data availability through systematic ex-post evaluations, and an example of how to utilize such data in practice is presented....

  18. Technology Readiness Level Guidebook

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-09-01

    This guidebook provides the necessary information for conducting a Technology Readiness Level (TRL) Assessment. TRL Assessments are a tool for determining the maturity of technologies and identifying next steps in the research process. This guidebook...

  19. Slab replacement maturity guidelines : [summary].

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-04-01

    Concrete sets in hours at moderate temperatures, : but the bonds that make concrete strong continue : to mature over days to years. However, for : replacement concrete slabs on highways, it is : crucial that concrete develop enough strength : within ...

  20. SOUL System Maturation, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Busek Co. Inc. proposes to advance the maturity of an innovative Spacecraft on Umbilical Line (SOUL) System suitable for a wide variety of applications of interest...

  1. SOUL System Maturation, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Busek Co. Inc. proposes to advance the maturity of an innovative Spacecraft on Umbilical Line (SOUL) System suitable for a wide variety of applications of interest...

  2. Assessing the need for better forecasting and observability of pv

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alet, Pierre-Jean; Efthymiou, Venizelos; Graditi, Giorgio

    2017-01-01

    In its review of the challenges and opportunities associated with massive deployment of solar PV generation, the Grid integration working group of the ETIP PV identified forecasting and observability as critical technologies for the planning and operation of the power system with large PV...

  3. Magnetogram Forecast: An All-Clear Space Weather Forecasting System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barghouty, Nasser; Falconer, David

    2015-01-01

    Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the drivers of severe space weather. Forecasting the probability of their occurrence is critical in improving space weather forecasts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) currently uses the McIntosh active region category system, in which each active region on the disk is assigned to one of 60 categories, and uses the historical flare rates of that category to make an initial forecast that can then be adjusted by the NOAA forecaster. Flares and CMEs are caused by the sudden release of energy from the coronal magnetic field by magnetic reconnection. It is believed that the rate of flare and CME occurrence in an active region is correlated with the free energy of an active region. While the free energy cannot be measured directly with present observations, proxies of the free energy can instead be used to characterize the relative free energy of an active region. The Magnetogram Forecast (MAG4) (output is available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center) was conceived and designed to be a databased, all-clear forecasting system to support the operational goals of NASA's Space Radiation Analysis Group. The MAG4 system automatically downloads nearreal- time line-of-sight Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) magnetograms on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite, identifies active regions on the solar disk, measures a free-energy proxy, and then applies forecasting curves to convert the free-energy proxy into predicted event rates for X-class flares, M- and X-class flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and solar energetic particle events (SPEs). The forecast curves themselves are derived from a sample of 40,000 magnetograms from 1,300 active region samples, observed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Michelson Doppler Imager. Figure 1 is an example of MAG4 visual output

  4. Maturation of sugar maple seed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clayton M., Jr. Carl; Albert G., Jr. Snow; Albert G. Snow

    1971-01-01

    The seeds of a sugar maple tree (Acer saccharum Marsh.) do not mature at the same time every year. And different trees mature their seeds at different times. So time of year is not a reliable measure of when seeds are ripe. Better criteria are needed. In recent studies we have found that moisture content and color are the best criteria for judging when sugar maple...

  5. Earthquake number forecasts testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kagan, Yan Y.

    2017-10-01

    We study the distributions of earthquake numbers in two global earthquake catalogues: Global Centroid-Moment Tensor and Preliminary Determinations of Epicenters. The properties of these distributions are especially required to develop the number test for our forecasts of future seismic activity rate, tested by the Collaboratory for Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). A common assumption, as used in the CSEP tests, is that the numbers are described by the Poisson distribution. It is clear, however, that the Poisson assumption for the earthquake number distribution is incorrect, especially for the catalogues with a lower magnitude threshold. In contrast to the one-parameter Poisson distribution so widely used to describe earthquake occurrences, the negative-binomial distribution (NBD) has two parameters. The second parameter can be used to characterize the clustering or overdispersion of a process. We also introduce and study a more complex three-parameter beta negative-binomial distribution. We investigate the dependence of parameters for both Poisson and NBD distributions on the catalogue magnitude threshold and on temporal subdivision of catalogue duration. First, we study whether the Poisson law can be statistically rejected for various catalogue subdivisions. We find that for most cases of interest, the Poisson distribution can be shown to be rejected statistically at a high significance level in favour of the NBD. Thereafter, we investigate whether these distributions fit the observed distributions of seismicity. For this purpose, we study upper statistical moments of earthquake numbers (skewness and kurtosis) and compare them to the theoretical values for both distributions. Empirical values for the skewness and the kurtosis increase for the smaller magnitude threshold and increase with even greater intensity for small temporal subdivision of catalogues. The Poisson distribution for large rate values approaches the Gaussian law, therefore its skewness

  6. Hierarchical Estimation as Basis for Hierarchical Forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Strijbosch, L.W.G.; Heuts, R.M.J.; Moors, J.J.A.

    2006-01-01

    In inventory management, hierarchical forecasting (HF) is a hot issue : families of items are formed for which total demand is forecasted; total forecast then is broken up to produce forecasts for the individual items.Since HF is a complicated procedure, analytical results are hard to obtain;

  7. Indeks Penilaian Kematangan (Maturity Manajemen Keamanan Layanan TI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farroh Sakinah

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Pemanfaatan Teknologi Informasi (TI dalam mendukung terselenggaranya pelayanan yang optimal menjadi kebutuhan utama organisasi saat ini. Jaminan pengelolaan layanan dan keamanan yang baik menjadi salah satu tolok ukurnya. Pengimplementasian sebuah standar menjadi salah satu solusinya meskipun penggunaan satu buah standar dirasa belum maksimal melihat cakupan yang disediakan kurang luas sehingga diadakannya upaya penggabungan beberapa standar dengan harapan standar-standar tersebut dapat saling melengkapi. Pengimplementasian beberapa standar ini dapat dimonitoring tingkat kematangannya (maturity dengan menggunakan alat ukur penilaian kematangan (maturity. Alat ukur kematangan (maturity manajemen keamanan layanan ini merupakan gabungan pemetaan dari control objective IT Governance COBIT 4.1 yang dipenuhi kebutuhan manajemen layanannya sesuai dengan Service Management di dalam ITIL v3 (Information Technology Infrastructure Library. Selanjutnya kebutuhan manajemen layanan ini diukur dengan maturity level COBIT 4.1 dan disesuaikan dengan framework ISO 27000 untuk memaksimalkan manajemen keamanan informasi.

  8. Recurrent networks for wave forecasting

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mandal, S.; Prabaharan, N.

    The tremendous increase in offshore operational activities demands improved wave forecasting techniques. With the knowledge of accurate wave conditions, it is possible to carry out the marine activities such as offshore drilling, naval operations...

  9. Load forecasting of supermarket refrigeration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lisa Buth; Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a novel study of models for forecasting the electrical load for supermarket refrigeration. The data used for building the models consists of load measurements, local climate measurements and weather forecasts. The load measurements are from a supermarket located in a village...... in Denmark. Every hour the hourly electrical load for refrigeration is forecasted for the following 42 h. The forecast models are adaptive linear time series models. The model has two regimes; one for opening hours and one for closing hours, this is modeled by a regime switching model and two different...... methods for predicting the regimes are tested. The dynamic relation between the weather and the load is modeled by simple transfer functions and the non-linearities are described using spline functions. The results are thoroughly evaluated and it is shown that the spline functions are suitable...

  10. Measuring inaccuracy in travel demand forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, Bent

    2005-01-01

    Project promoters, forecasters, and managers sometimes object to two things in measuring inaccuracy in travel demand forecasting: (1)using the forecast made at the time of making the decision to build as the basis for measuring inaccuracy and (2)using traffic during the first year of operations...... in travel demand forecasts are likely to be conservatively biased, i.e., accuracy in travel demand forecasts estimated from such samples would likely be higher than accuracy in travel demand forecasts in the project population. This bias must be taken into account when interpreting the results from...... statistical analyses of inaccuracy in travel demand forecasting....

  11. Forecasting with Dynamic Regression Models

    CERN Document Server

    Pankratz, Alan

    2012-01-01

    One of the most widely used tools in statistical forecasting, single equation regression models is examined here. A companion to the author's earlier work, Forecasting with Univariate Box-Jenkins Models: Concepts and Cases, the present text pulls together recent time series ideas and gives special attention to possible intertemporal patterns, distributed lag responses of output to input series and the auto correlation patterns of regression disturbance. It also includes six case studies.

  12. Forecasting Interest Rates and Inflation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chun, Albert Lee

    This study examines the performance of the professional analysts in the Blue Chip Financial Forecasts vis-à-vis set of competing econometric benchmarks, including shrinkage versions that adjust for in-sample over-fit in improving out-of-sample performance. The individual participants perform...... document predictability in the survey forecast errors, which exhibit substantial variability across different economic episodes, and propose a new adjustment that can substantially improve the performance of the survey participants....

  13. Municipal water consumption forecast accuracy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fullerton, Thomas M.; Molina, Angel L.

    2010-06-01

    Municipal water consumption planning is an active area of research because of infrastructure construction and maintenance costs, supply constraints, and water quality assurance. In spite of that, relatively few water forecast accuracy assessments have been completed to date, although some internal documentation may exist as part of the proprietary "grey literature." This study utilizes a data set of previously published municipal consumption forecasts to partially fill that gap in the empirical water economics literature. Previously published municipal water econometric forecasts for three public utilities are examined for predictive accuracy against two random walk benchmarks commonly used in regional analyses. Descriptive metrics used to quantify forecast accuracy include root-mean-square error and Theil inequality statistics. Formal statistical assessments are completed using four-pronged error differential regression F tests. Similar to studies for other metropolitan econometric forecasts in areas with similar demographic and labor market characteristics, model predictive performances for the municipal water aggregates in this effort are mixed for each of the municipalities included in the sample. Given the competitiveness of the benchmarks, analysts should employ care when utilizing econometric forecasts of municipal water consumption for planning purposes, comparing them to recent historical observations and trends to insure reliability. Comparative results using data from other markets, including regions facing differing labor and demographic conditions, would also be helpful.

  14. OPTIMIZATION OF DUTY METEOROLOGIST WORK USING FORECASTER AUTOMATED WORKSTATION

    OpenAIRE

    Pylypovych, Hryhorii H.; Shevchenko, Viktor L.; Drovnin, Andrii S.; Musin, Rafil R.; Oliinyk, Oleksandr L.

    2014-01-01

    The priority directions of science and technology in Ukraine for the period till 2020 indicated information and communication technologies, so optimization of duty meteorologist work should include a number of specific measures to minimize the human factor in the chain “observation – processing – forecasting - transfer – bringing – to consumers and actual prognostic meteorological information”. Work in technical areas of activity is increasingly becoming automated, so meteorologists should be...

  15. Vendor managed forecasting: A case study of small enterprise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Atul B. Borade

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Enterprises use supply chain management practices for improving business or supply chain performance. It is observed that supply chain technologies like VMI are now becoming an integral part of enterprise’s strategy. Even small and medium enterprises can adopt this practice and improve the performance of supply chain. This paper discusses vendor managed forecasting with the help of case study. It shows how a small enterprise improves supply chain performance by using demand related information obtained from retailer. The results obtained in the study shows that vendor managed forecasting in supply chain reduces the demand variation and improves inventory management significantly.

  16. Technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xu Jing

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The traditional answer card reading method using OMR (Optical Mark Reader, most commonly, OMR special card special use, less versatile, high cost, aiming at the existing problems proposed a method based on pattern recognition of the answer card identification method. Using the method based on Line Segment Detector to detect the tilt of the image, the existence of tilt image rotation correction, and eventually achieve positioning and detection of answers to the answer sheet .Pattern recognition technology for automatic reading, high accuracy, detect faster

  17. Power Technologies Data Book

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goldstein, L.

    2002-09-01

    This report, prepared by NREL's Energy Analysis Office, includes up-to-date information on power technologies, including complete technology profiles. The data book also contains charts on electricity restructuring, power technology forecasts and comparisons, electricity supply, electricity capability, electricity generation, electricity demand, prices, economic indicators, environmental indicators, conversion factors, and selected congressional questions and answers.

  18. DEVELOPMENT OF A MATURITY MODEL FOR TELEMEDICINE#

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Van Dyk

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: For more than a decade, the South African National Department of Health (DoH has recognised the potential benefit of information and communication technology (ICT in the delivery of health care to rural areas. Despite generous funding and proven technology, not many telemedicine systems have proved sustainable after the pilot phase. The purpose of this paper is to develop a maturity model that can be implemented to measure and manage the capability of a health system, for use in the delivery of sustainable health care after the pilot phase of a telemedicine project. The validity of the telemedicine maturity model (TMMM is tested within the context of the South African public health sector.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die Suid Afrikaanse Nasionale Departement van Gesondheid het reeds meer as ’n dekade gelede die voordeel besef wat inligtings- en kommunikasietegnologie kan bied ten opsigte van die lewering van gesondheidsorg in afgeleë gebiede. Ten spyte van ruim befondsing en bewese tegnologie, is daar egter min volgehoue telegeneeskundedienste in die publieke gesondheidstelsel van Suid Afrika. Die doel van hierdie artikel is om ’n volwassenheids-model te ontwikkel wat gebruik kan word om die vermoë van ’n gesondheidstelsel te bepaal en bestuur, ten einde telegeneeskunde loodsprojekte vol te hou. Die geldigheid van hierdie telegeneeskunde volwassenheidsmodel (TMMM is getoets binne konteks van die publieke gesondheidsektor van Suid Afrika.

  19. A hybrid sales forecasting scheme by combining independent component analysis with K-means clustering and support vector regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Chi-Jie; Chang, Chi-Chang

    2014-01-01

    Sales forecasting plays an important role in operating a business since it can be used to determine the required inventory level to meet consumer demand and avoid the problem of under/overstocking. Improving the accuracy of sales forecasting has become an important issue of operating a business. This study proposes a hybrid sales forecasting scheme by combining independent component analysis (ICA) with K-means clustering and support vector regression (SVR). The proposed scheme first uses the ICA to extract hidden information from the observed sales data. The extracted features are then applied to K-means algorithm for clustering the sales data into several disjoined clusters. Finally, the SVR forecasting models are applied to each group to generate final forecasting results. Experimental results from information technology (IT) product agent sales data reveal that the proposed sales forecasting scheme outperforms the three comparison models and hence provides an efficient alternative for sales forecasting.

  20. A Hybrid Sales Forecasting Scheme by Combining Independent Component Analysis with K-Means Clustering and Support Vector Regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chi-Jie Lu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Sales forecasting plays an important role in operating a business since it can be used to determine the required inventory level to meet consumer demand and avoid the problem of under/overstocking. Improving the accuracy of sales forecasting has become an important issue of operating a business. This study proposes a hybrid sales forecasting scheme by combining independent component analysis (ICA with K-means clustering and support vector regression (SVR. The proposed scheme first uses the ICA to extract hidden information from the observed sales data. The extracted features are then applied to K-means algorithm for clustering the sales data into several disjoined clusters. Finally, the SVR forecasting models are applied to each group to generate final forecasting results. Experimental results from information technology (IT product agent sales data reveal that the proposed sales forecasting scheme outperforms the three comparison models and hence provides an efficient alternative for sales forecasting.

  1. Sustaining Exploration in Mature Basins

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bayo, A.

    2002-01-01

    Exploration is a business like any other business driven by opportunity, resources and expectation of profit. Therefore, exploration will thrive anywhere the opportunities are significant, the resources are available and the outlook for profit (or value creation) is good. To sustain exploration activities anywhere, irrespective of the environment, there must be good understanding of the drivers of these key investment criteria. This paper will examine these investment criteria as they relate to exploration business and address the peculiarity of exploration in mature basin. Mature basins are unique environment that lends themselves a mix of fears, paradigms and realities, particularly with respect to the perception of value. To sustain exploration activities in a mature basin, we need to understand these perceptions relative to the true drivers of profitability. Exploration in the mature basins can be as profitable as exploration in emerging basins if the dynamics of value definition-strategic and fiscal values are understood by operators, regulators and co ventures alike. Some suggestions are made in this presentation on what needs to be done in addressing these dynamic investment parameters and sustaining exploration activities in mature basins

  2. Impacto dos modelos de referência e maturidade no gerenciamento de projetos: estudo exploratório em projetos de tecnologia da informação Impact of project management reference and project management maturity models on performance: an exploratory study in information technology projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Tobal Berssaneti

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Modelos de maturidade e modelos de referência em gerenciamento de projetos têm sido implantados de forma crescente na área de tecnologia da informação (TI. Este artigo tem por objetivo analisar o impacto do grau de maturidade organizacional em gerenciamento de projetos e o da adoção de modelos de referência no sucesso de projetos de TI. Foi adotada a abordagem de pesquisa quantitativa, com levantamento junto a 51 profissionais da área. Os resultados apontam para correlação positiva entre o grau de maturidade organizacional em gerenciamento de projetos e a satisfação das demandas dos stakeholders (principais interessados no projeto. Também foi constatada relação estatística positiva entre a adoção do PMBoK e o sucesso de projetos de TI, no que concerne ao atendimento dos requisitos e satisfação das demandas dos stakeholders.Project management maturity and project management reference models have been widely adopted on information technology (IT companies. This article aims to analyze the impact of project management maturity level and adopt reference models on IT projects performance (success. A quantitative research approach was used, including a survey with 51 professionals from the sector. Results showed positive impact between project management maturity level and meeting of stakeholders' demands. A positive statistical correlation was also found in firms that develop information technology projects through PMBoK adoption concerning meeting requirements and meeting of stakeholders' demands.

  3. Forecasting Container Throughput at the Doraleh Port in Djibouti through Time Series Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohamed Ismael, Hawa; Vandyck, George Kobina

    The Doraleh Container Terminal (DCT) located in Djibouti has been noted as the most technologically advanced container terminal on the African continent. DCT's strategic location at the crossroads of the main shipping lanes connecting Asia, Africa and Europe put it in a unique position to provide important shipping services to vessels plying that route. This paper aims to forecast container throughput through the Doraleh Container Port in Djibouti by Time Series Analysis. A selection of univariate forecasting models has been used, namely Triple Exponential Smoothing Model, Grey Model and Linear Regression Model. By utilizing the above three models and their combination, the forecast of container throughput through the Doraleh port was realized. A comparison of the different forecasting results of the three models, in addition to the combination forecast is then undertaken, based on commonly used evaluation criteria Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The study found that the Linear Regression forecasting Model was the best prediction method for forecasting the container throughput, since its forecast error was the least. Based on the regression model, a ten (10) year forecast for container throughput at DCT has been made.

  4. Cheese maturity assessment using ultrasonics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benedito, J; Carcel, J; Clemente, G; Mulet, A

    2000-02-01

    The relationship between Mahon cheese maturity and ultrasonic velocity was examined. Moisture and textural properties were used as maturity indicators. The ultrasonic velocity of the cheese varied between 1630 and 1740 m/s, increasing with the curing time mainly because of loss of water, which also produced an increase of the textural properties. Because of the nature of low-intensity ultrasonics, velocity was better related to those textural parameters that involved small displacements. Ultrasonic velocity decreased with increasing temperature because of the negative temperature coefficient of the ultrasonic velocity of fat and the melting of fat. These results highlight the potential use of ultrasonic velocity measurements to rapidly and nondestructively assess cheese maturity.

  5. Space Weather Monitoring and Forecasting Activity in NICT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagatsuma, Tsutomu; Watari, Shinichi; T. Murata, Ken

    Disturbances of Space environment around the Earth (geospace) is controlled by the activity of the Sun and the solar wind. Disturbances in geospace sometimes cause serious problems to satellites, astronauts, and telecommunications. To minimize the effect of the problems, space weather forecasting is necessary. In Japan, NICT (National Institute of Information and Communications Technology) is in charge of space weather forecasting services as a regional warning center of International Space Environment Service. With help of geospace environment data exchanging among the international cooperation, NICT operates daily space weather forecast service every day to provide information on nowcasts and forecasts of solar flare, geomagnetic disturbances, solar proton event, and radio-wave propagation conditions in the ionosphere. For prompt reporting of space weather information, we also conduct our original observation networks from the Sun to the upper atmosphere: Hiraiso solar observatory, domestic ionosonde networks, magnetometer & HF radar observations in far-east Siberia and Alaska, and south-east Asia low-latitude ionospheric network (SEALION). ACE (Advanced Composition Explorer) and STEREO (Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory) real-time beacon data are received using our antenna facilities to monitor the solar and solar wind conditions in near real-time. Our current activities and future perspective of space weather monitoring and forecasting will be introduced in this report.

  6. Recent Progress of Solar Weather Forecasting at Naoc

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Han; Wang, Huaning; Du, Zhanle; Zhang, Liyun; Huang, Xin; Yan, Yan; Fan, Yuliang; Zhu, Xiaoshuai; Guo, Xiaobo; Dai, Xinghua

    The history of solar weather forecasting services at National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences (NAOC) can be traced back to 1960s. Nowadays, NAOC is the headquarters of the Regional Warning Center of China (RWC-China), which is one of the members of the International Space Environment Service (ISES). NAOC is responsible for exchanging data, information and space weather forecasts of RWC-China with other RWCs. The solar weather forecasting services at NAOC cover short-term prediction (within two or three days), medium-term prediction (within several weeks), and long-term prediction (in time scale of solar cycle) of solar activities. Most efforts of the short-term prediction research are concentrated on the solar eruptive phenomena, such as flares, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar proton events, which are the key driving sources of strong space weather disturbances. Based on the high quality observation data of the latest space-based and ground-based solar telescopes and with the help of artificial intelligence techniques, new numerical models with quantitative analyses and physical consideration are being developed for the predictions of solar eruptive events. The 3-D computer simulation technology is being introduced for the operational solar weather service platform to visualize the monitoring of solar activities, the running of the prediction models, as well as the presenting of the forecasting results. A new generation operational solar weather monitoring and forecasting system is expected to be constructed in the near future at NAOC.

  7. A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ross, M. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States)]|[Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics]|[Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.; Hwang, R. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States)

    1992-02-01

    The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model`s parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

  8. A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ross, M. (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States) Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.); Hwang, R. (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States))

    1992-02-01

    The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model's parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

  9. Public Sector IS Maturity Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zinner Henriksen, Helle; Andersen, Kim Normann; Medaglia, Rony

    2011-01-01

    citizenpublic interaction, such as in public education. In this paper we use a revised version of the Public Sector Process Rebuilding (PPR) maturity model for mapping 200 websites of public primary schools in Denmark. Findings reveal a much less favorable picture of the digitization of the Danish public sector...... compared to the high ranking it has received in the international benchmark studies. This paper aims at closing the gap between the predominant scope of maturity models and the frequency of citizen-public sector interaction, and calls for increased attention to the activities of government where the scale...

  10. AI Sport Forecast Software

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kiyomi Cerezo Takahash

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available This article aims to explain the development of an application whose function is to predict the results of different sporting encounters. To do this an analysis of the influential factors, algorithms and technology implemented, will be carried out.

  11. Dynamic SEP event probability forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahler, S. W.; Ling, A.

    2015-10-01

    The forecasting of solar energetic particle (SEP) event probabilities at Earth has been based primarily on the estimates of magnetic free energy in active regions and on the observations of peak fluxes and fluences of large (≥ M2) solar X-ray flares. These forecasts are typically issued for the next 24 h or with no definite expiration time, which can be deficient for time-critical operations when no SEP event appears following a large X-ray flare. It is therefore important to decrease the event probability forecast with time as a SEP event fails to appear. We use the NOAA listing of major (≥10 pfu) SEP events from 1976 to 2014 to plot the delay times from X-ray peaks to SEP threshold onsets as a function of solar source longitude. An algorithm is derived to decrease the SEP event probabilities with time when no event is observed to reach the 10 pfu threshold. In addition, we use known SEP event size distributions to modify probability forecasts when SEP intensity increases occur below the 10 pfu event threshold. An algorithm to provide a dynamic SEP event forecast, Pd, for both situations of SEP intensities following a large flare is derived.

  12. Automation of energy demand forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siddique, Sanzad

    Automation of energy demand forecasting saves time and effort by searching automatically for an appropriate model in a candidate model space without manual intervention. This thesis introduces a search-based approach that improves the performance of the model searching process for econometrics models. Further improvements in the accuracy of the energy demand forecasting are achieved by integrating nonlinear transformations within the models. This thesis introduces machine learning techniques that are capable of modeling such nonlinearity. Algorithms for learning domain knowledge from time series data using the machine learning methods are also presented. The novel search based approach and the machine learning models are tested with synthetic data as well as with natural gas and electricity demand signals. Experimental results show that the model searching technique is capable of finding an appropriate forecasting model. Further experimental results demonstrate an improved forecasting accuracy achieved by using the novel machine learning techniques introduced in this thesis. This thesis presents an analysis of how the machine learning techniques learn domain knowledge. The learned domain knowledge is used to improve the forecast accuracy.

  13. Bayesian flood forecasting methods: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Shasha; Coulibaly, Paulin

    2017-08-01

    Over the past few decades, floods have been seen as one of the most common and largely distributed natural disasters in the world. If floods could be accurately forecasted in advance, then their negative impacts could be greatly minimized. It is widely recognized that quantification and reduction of uncertainty associated with the hydrologic forecast is of great importance for flood estimation and rational decision making. Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) offers an ideal theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification that can be developed for probabilistic flood forecasting via any deterministic hydrologic model. It provides suitable theoretical structure, empirically validated models and reasonable analytic-numerical computation method, and can be developed into various Bayesian forecasting approaches. This paper presents a comprehensive review on Bayesian forecasting approaches applied in flood forecasting from 1999 till now. The review starts with an overview of fundamentals of BFS and recent advances in BFS, followed with BFS application in river stage forecasting and real-time flood forecasting, then move to a critical analysis by evaluating advantages and limitations of Bayesian forecasting methods and other predictive uncertainty assessment approaches in flood forecasting, and finally discusses the future research direction in Bayesian flood forecasting. Results show that the Bayesian flood forecasting approach is an effective and advanced way for flood estimation, it considers all sources of uncertainties and produces a predictive distribution of the river stage, river discharge or runoff, thus gives more accurate and reliable flood forecasts. Some emerging Bayesian forecasting methods (e.g. ensemble Bayesian forecasting system, Bayesian multi-model combination) were shown to overcome limitations of single model or fixed model weight and effectively reduce predictive uncertainty. In recent years, various Bayesian flood forecasting approaches have been

  14. Predictive Capability Maturity Model for computational modeling and simulation.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oberkampf, William Louis; Trucano, Timothy Guy; Pilch, Martin M.

    2007-10-01

    The Predictive Capability Maturity Model (PCMM) is a new model that can be used to assess the level of maturity of computational modeling and simulation (M&S) efforts. The development of the model is based on both the authors experience and their analysis of similar investigations in the past. The perspective taken in this report is one of judging the usefulness of a predictive capability that relies on the numerical solution to partial differential equations to better inform and improve decision making. The review of past investigations, such as the Software Engineering Institute's Capability Maturity Model Integration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Department of Defense Technology Readiness Levels, indicates that a more restricted, more interpretable method is needed to assess the maturity of an M&S effort. The PCMM addresses six contributing elements to M&S: (1) representation and geometric fidelity, (2) physics and material model fidelity, (3) code verification, (4) solution verification, (5) model validation, and (6) uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis. For each of these elements, attributes are identified that characterize four increasing levels of maturity. Importantly, the PCMM is a structured method for assessing the maturity of an M&S effort that is directed toward an engineering application of interest. The PCMM does not assess whether the M&S effort, the accuracy of the predictions, or the performance of the engineering system satisfies or does not satisfy specified application requirements.

  15. Energy Forecasts and their Attendant Risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greggio, Rodolphe; Maffei, Benoit

    2017-01-01

    As Jean-Marie Chevalier stresses in this issue, it is currently quite tricky to pronounce on how energy prices will move over time or to predict how energy production systems will change. Further support for that view comes from this article by Rodolphe Greggio and Benoit Maffei. They have looked into the way long-term energy forecasts are made and their conclusion is that, as things stand, they are doomed to fail. The main underlying reason for this is the difficulty of making reliable predictions about how energy demand will evolve, since it is the product of exogenous developments that are unknowable in the long term (demographic growth, economic growth, productivity, energy efficiency etc.). A number of forecasting errors with regard to technological breaks have also played a role: a 'golden age' for natural gas was forecast too early; the date of 'peak oil' has shifted around wildly; a peak with regard to ore deposits has not had the impact originally anticipated; and the decline of nuclear power has turned out to require qualification. Ultimately, all this is the product of various political and geopolitical factors linked to the respective energy assets of the different countries and their strategies for achieving energy independence: e.g. the USA and shale gas, France and nuclear power, Germany and renewables. Quite clearly, the current context suggests that a gradual transition from carbon-based to renewable energies is the order of the day, but it is far from easy to predict on precisely what timescale, in what proportions and on what geographical scale this might occur. (authors)

  16. MATURITY MODEL FOR IT SERVICE OUTSOURCING IN HIGHER EDUCATION INSTITUTIONS

    OpenAIRE

    Victoriano Valencia García; Dr. Eugenio J. Fernández Vicente; Dr. Luis Usero Aragonés

    2013-01-01

    The current success of organizations depends on the successful implementation of Information and Comunication Technologies (ICTs). Good governance and ICT management are essential for delivering value, managing technological risks, managing resources and performance measurement. In addition, outsourcing is a strategic option which complements IT services provided internally in organizations. This paper proposes the design of a new holistic maturity model based on standards ISO/IEC 20000 and I...

  17. Measurement of Food Safety Culture using Survey and Maturity Profiling Tools

    OpenAIRE

    Jespersen, Lone; Griffiths, Mansel; Maclaurin, Tanya; Chapman, Ben; Wallace, Carol A.

    2016-01-01

    Organizational culture is defined by dimensions and characteristics that can be used to measure food safety culture in food manufacturing through a food safety maturity model. Maturity models from quality, health care, and information technology have been used since early 1970 and this work presents a novel food safety culture maturity model with five capability areas and food safety pinpointed behaviours specific to functions and levels in a food manufacturing company. A survey tool linked t...

  18. Evaluating the Maturity of Cybersecurity Programs for Building Control Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Glantz, Clifford S.; Somasundaram, Sriram; Mylrea, Michael E.; Underhill, Ronald M.; Nicholls, Andrew K.

    2016-08-29

    The cyber-physical security threat to buildings is complex, non-linear, and rapidly evolving as operational and information technologies converge and connect buildings to cyberspace. Cyberattacks on buildings can exploit smart building controls and breach corporate networks, causing financial and reputational damage. This may result in the loss of sensitive building information or the disruption of, or damage to, the systems necessary for the safe and efficient operation of buildings. For the buildings and facility infrastructure, there is a need for a robust national cybersecurity strategy for buildings, guidance on the selection and implementation of appropriate cybersecurity controls for buildings, an approach to evaluate the maturity and adequacy of the cybersecurity programs. To provide an approach for evaluating the maturity of the cybersecurity programs for building control systems, the US Department of Energy’s widely used Cybersecurity Capability and Maturity Model (C2M2) has been adapted into a building control systems version. The revised model, the Buildings-C2M2 (B-C2M2) provides maturity level indicators for cybersecurity programmatic domains. A “B-C2M2 Lite” version allows facility managers and building control system engineers, or information technology personnel to perform rapid self-assessments of their cybersecurity program. Both tools have been pilot tested on several facilities. This paper outlines the concept of a maturity model, describes the B-C2M2 tools, presents results and observations from the pilot assessments, and lays out plans for future work.

  19. Quantile forecast discrimination ability and value

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ben Bouallègue, Zied; Pinson, Pierre; Friederichs, Petra

    2015-01-01

    While probabilistic forecast verification for categorical forecasts is well established, some of the existing concepts and methods have not found their equivalent for the case of continuous variables. New tools dedicated to the assessment of forecast discrimination ability and forecast value......-based discrimination tool and the quantile value plot translates forecast discrimination ability in terms of economic value. The relationship between the overall value of a quantile forecast and the respective quantile skill score is also discussed. The application of these new verification approaches and tools...

  20. Economic impact analysis of load forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ranaweera, D.K.; Karady, G.G.; Farmer, R.G.

    1997-01-01

    Short term load forecasting is an essential function in electric power system operations and planning. Forecasts are needed for a variety of utility activities such as generation scheduling, scheduling of fuel purchases, maintenance scheduling and security analysis. Depending on power system characteristics, significant forecasting errors can lead to either excessively conservative scheduling or very marginal scheduling. Either can induce heavy economic penalties. This paper examines the economic impact of inaccurate load forecasts. Monte Carlo simulations were used to study the effect of different load forecasting accuracy. Investigations into the effect of improving the daily peak load forecasts, effect of different seasons of the year and effect of utilization factors are presented

  1. Urban runoff forecasting with ensemble weather predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Jonas Wied; Courdent, Vianney Augustin Thomas; Vezzaro, Luca

    This research shows how ensemble weather forecasts can be used to generate urban runoff forecasts up to 53 hours into the future. The results highlight systematic differences between ensemble members that needs to be accounted for when these forecasts are used in practice.......This research shows how ensemble weather forecasts can be used to generate urban runoff forecasts up to 53 hours into the future. The results highlight systematic differences between ensemble members that needs to be accounted for when these forecasts are used in practice....

  2. Determination of blueberry and strawberry maturity and aroma quality and effect of HLB on orange juice aroma: comparison of Z-nose, E-nose and GC-MS technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Electronic nose technology could be very useful in quality control discrimination of products. The Z-nose (Electronic Sensory Technology, Model 4500) was equipped with a Tenax trap (2 mg, 225 ºC), and 1 m DB5 column, an acoustic wave detector and an oven set to ramp from 40-180 ºC at a rate of 10 ºC...

  3. Market penetration of new energy technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Packey, D.J.

    1993-02-01

    This report examines the characteristics, advantages, disadvantages, and, for some, the mathematical formulas of forecasting methods that can be used to forecast the market penetration of renewable energy technologies. Among the methods studied are subjective estimation, market surveys, historical analogy models, cost models, diffusion models, time-series models, and econometric models. Some of these forecasting methods are more effective than others at different developmental stages of new technologies.

  4. Medium Range Forecasts Representation (and Long Range Forecasts?)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincendon, J.-C.

    2009-09-01

    The progress of the numerical forecasts urges us to interest us in more and more distant ranges. We thus supply more and more forecasts with term of some days. Nevertheless, precautions of use are necessary to give the most reliable and the most relevant possible information. Available in a TV bulletin or on quite other support (Internet, mobile phone), the interpretation and the representation of a medium range forecast (5 - 15 days) must be different from those of a short range forecast. Indeed, the "foresee-ability” of a meteorological phenomenon decreases gradually in the course of the ranges, it decreases all the more quickly that the phenomenon is of small scale. So, at the end of some days, the probability character of a forecast becomes very widely dominating. That is why in Meteo-France the forecasts of D+4 to D+7 are accompanied with a confidence index since around ten years. It is a figure between 1 and 5: the more we approach 5, the more the confidence in the supplied forecast is good. In the practice, an indication is supplied for period D+4 / D+5, the other one for period D+6 / D+7, every day being able to benefit from a different forecast, that is be represented in a independent way. We thus supply a global tendency over 24 hours with less and less precise symbols as the range goes away. Concrete examples will be presented. From now on two years, we also publish forecasts to D+8 / J+9, accompanied with a sign of confidence (" good reliability " or " to confirm "). These two days are grouped together on a single map because for us, the described tendency to this term is relevant on a duration about 48 hours with a spatial scale slightly superior to the synoptic scale. So, we avoid producing more than two zones of types of weather over France and we content with giving an evolution for the temperatures (still, in increase or in decline). Newspapers began to publish this information, it should soon be the case of televisions. It is particularly

  5. Motivational Maturity and Helping Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haymes, Michael; Green, Logan

    1977-01-01

    Maturity in conative development (type of motivation included in Maslow's needs hierarchy) was found to be predictive of helping behavior in middle class white male college students. The effects of safety and esteem needs were compared, and the acceptance of responsibility was also investigated. (GDC)

  6. Uncertainties in Forecasting Streamflow using Entropy Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, H.; Singh, V. P.

    2017-12-01

    Streamflow forecasting is essential in river restoration, reservoir operation, power generation, irrigation, navigation, and water management. However, there is always uncertainties accompanied in forecast, which may affect the forecasting results and lead to large variations. Therefore, uncertainties must be considered and be assessed properly when forecasting streamflow for water management. The aim of our work is to quantify the uncertainties involved in forecasting streamflow and provide reliable streamflow forecast. Despite that streamflow time series are stochastic, they exhibit seasonal and periodic patterns. Therefore, streamflow forecasting entails modeling seasonality, periodicity, and its correlation structure, and assessing uncertainties. This study applies entropy theory to forecast streamflow and measure uncertainties during the forecasting process. To apply entropy theory for streamflow forecasting, spectral analysis is combined to time series analysis, as spectral analysis can be employed to characterize patterns of streamflow variation and identify the periodicity of streamflow. That is, it permits to extract significant information for understanding the streamflow process and prediction thereof. Application of entropy theory for streamflow forecasting involves determination of spectral density, determination of parameters, and extension of autocorrelation function. The uncertainties brought by precipitation input, forecasting model and forecasted results are measured separately using entropy. With information theory, how these uncertainties transported and aggregated during these processes will be described.

  7. Forecast communication through the newspaper Part 1: Framing the forecaster

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Andrew J. L.

    2015-04-01

    This review is split into two parts both of which address issues of forecast communication of an environmental disaster through the newspaper during a period of crisis. The first part explores the process by which information passes from the scientist or forecaster, through the media filter, to the public. As part of this filter preference, omission, selection of data, source, quote and story, as well as placement of the same information within an individual piece or within the newspaper itself, can serve to distort the message. The result is the introduction of bias and slant—that is, the message becomes distorted so as to favor one side of the argument against another as it passes through the filter. Bias can be used to support spin or agenda setting, so that a particular emphasis becomes placed on the story which exerts an influence on the reader's judgment. The net result of the filter components is either a negative (contrary) or positive (supportive) frame. Tabloidization of the news has also resulted in the use of strong, evocative, exaggerated words, headlines and images to support a frame. I illustrate these various elements of the media filter using coverage of the air space closure due to the April 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull (Iceland). Using the British press coverage of this event it is not difficult to find examples of all media filter elements, application of which resulted in bias against the forecast and forecaster. These actors then became named and blamed. Within this logic, it becomes only too easy for forecasters and scientists to be framed in a negative way through blame culture. The result is that forecast is framed in such a way so as to cause the forecaster to be blamed for all losses associated with the loss-causing event. Within the social amplification of risk framework (SARF), this can amplify a negative impression of the risk, the event and the response. However, actions can be taken to avoid such an outcome. These actions

  8. Forecasting Global Point Rainfall using ECMWF's Ensemble Forecasting System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pillosu, Fatima; Hewson, Timothy; Zsoter, Ervin; Baugh, Calum

    2017-04-01

    ECMWF (the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasts), in collaboration with the EFAS (European Flood Awareness System) and GLOFAS (GLObal Flood Awareness System) teams, has developed a new operational system that post-processes grid box rainfall forecasts from its ensemble forecasting system to provide global probabilistic point-rainfall predictions. The project attains a higher forecasting skill by applying an understanding of how different rainfall generation mechanisms lead to different degrees of sub-grid variability in rainfall totals. In turn this approach facilitates identification of cases in which very localized extreme totals are much more likely. This approach aims also to improve the rainfall input required in different hydro-meteorological applications. Flash flood forecasting, in particular in urban areas, is a good example. In flash flood scenarios precipitation is typically characterised by high spatial variability and response times are short. In this case, to move beyond radar based now casting, the classical approach has been to use very high resolution hydro-meteorological models. Of course these models are valuable but they can represent only very limited areas, may not be spatially accurate and may give reasonable results only for limited lead times. On the other hand, our method aims to use a very cost-effective approach to downscale global rainfall forecasts to a point scale. It needs only rainfall totals from standard global reporting stations and forecasts over a relatively short period to train it, and it can give good results even up to day 5. For these reasons we believe that this approach better satisfies user needs around the world. This presentation aims to describe two phases of the project: The first phase, already completed, is the implementation of this new system to provide 6 and 12 hourly point-rainfall accumulation probabilities. To do this we use a limited number of physically relevant global model parameters (i

  9. Cervical vertebral maturation as a biologic indicator of skeletal maturity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santiago, Rodrigo César; de Miranda Costa, Luiz Felipe; Vitral, Robert Willer Farinazzo; Fraga, Marcelo Reis; Bolognese, Ana Maria; Maia, Lucianne Cople

    2012-11-01

    To identify and review the literature regarding the reliability of cervical vertebrae maturation (CVM) staging to predict the pubertal spurt. The selection criteria included cross-sectional and longitudinal descriptive studies in humans that evaluated qualitatively or quantitatively the accuracy and reproducibility of the CVM method on lateral cephalometric radiographs, as well as the correlation with a standard method established by hand-wrist radiographs. The searches retrieved 343 unique citations. Twenty-three studies met the inclusion criteria. Six articles had moderate to high scores, while 17 of 23 had low scores. Analysis also showed a moderate to high statistically significant correlation between CVM and hand-wrist maturation methods. There was a moderate to high reproducibility of the CVM method, and only one specific study investigated the accuracy of the CVM index in detecting peak pubertal growth. This systematic review has shown that the studies on CVM method for radiographic assessment of skeletal maturation stages suffer from serious methodological failures. Better-designed studies with adequate accuracy, reproducibility, and correlation analysis, including studies with appropriate sensitivity-specificity analysis, should be performed.

  10. Assessment of skeletal maturation using mandibular second molar maturation stages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goyal, S; Goyal, S; Gugnani, N

    2014-01-01

    To investigate the relationship between cervical vertebrae maturation and mandibular second molar calcification stages. The study was designed as a retrospective, descriptive and crosssectional research project. Pre-treatment lateral cephalograms and panoramic radiographs of 99 males and 110 females in the age range of 7 to 18 years 7 months were evaluated with Demirjian Index (DI) and cervical vertebrae maturation indicators (CVMI) of Hassel and Farman. A null hypothesis was proposed that there is no relation between CVMI and DI. A highly significant association (Pearson's contingency coefficient 0.713 for males and 0.863 for females) was found between DI and CVMI. In males, the DI stage E corresponded to stage 2 of CVMI (pre-peak of pubertal growth spurt) and DI stages F and G corresponded to stages 3 and 4 of CVMI (peak of pubertal growth spurt). DI stage H was associated with stages 5 and 6 of CVMI (end of pubertal growth spurt). In females, the DI stages C, D corresponded to CVMI stages 1, 2; DI stages E, F with CVMI stages 3, 4; DI stages G, H with CVMI stages 5, 6. Mandibular second molar calcification stages can be used as indicators for assessment of skeletal maturity.

  11. Modelling and Forecasting Multivariate Realized Volatility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halbleib, Roxana; Voev, Valeri

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes a methodology for dynamic modelling and forecasting of realized covariance matrices based on fractionally integrated processes. The approach allows for flexible dependence patterns and automatically guarantees positive definiteness of the forecast. We provide an empirical appl...

  12. Global Forecast System (GFS) [1 Deg.

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Forecast System (GFS) is a weather forecast model produced by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Dozens of atmospheric and...

  13. Road weather forecast quality analysis : project summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-03-01

    The purpose of this research is to enhance the use of KDOTs Roadway Weather : Information System by improving the weather forecasts themselves and raising the level of : confidence in these forecasts.

  14. Meteorologically Driven Dengue and Chikungunya Forecasts

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The goal of this project is to incorporate weather forecasts and reported DF and ChikV case data into a disease transmission model to forecast disease case numbers...

  15. WPC's Short Range Forecast Coded Bulletin

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Short Range Forecast Coded Bulletin. The Short Range Forecast Coded Bulletin describes the expected locations of high and low pressure centers, surface frontal...

  16. The Rise of Complexity in Flood Forecasting: Opportunities, Challenges and Tradeoffs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, A. W.; Clark, M. P.; Nijssen, B.

    2017-12-01

    Operational flood forecasting is currently undergoing a major transformation. Most national flood forecasting services have relied for decades on lumped, highly calibrated conceptual hydrological models running on local office computing resources, providing deterministic streamflow predictions at gauged river locations that are important to stakeholders and emergency managers. A variety of recent technological advances now make it possible to run complex, high-to-hyper-resolution models for operational hydrologic prediction over large domains, and the US National Weather Service is now attempting to use hyper-resolution models to create new forecast services and products. Yet other `increased-complexity' forecasting strategies also exist that pursue different tradeoffs between model complexity (i.e., spatial resolution, physics) and streamflow forecast system objectives. There is currently a pressing need for a greater understanding in the hydrology community of the opportunities, challenges and tradeoffs associated with these different forecasting approaches, and for a greater participation by the hydrology community in evaluating, guiding and implementing these approaches. Intermediate-resolution forecast systems, for instance, use distributed land surface model (LSM) physics but retain the agility to deploy ensemble methods (including hydrologic data assimilation and hindcast-based post-processing). Fully coupled numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems, another example, use still coarser LSMs to produce ensemble streamflow predictions either at the model scale or after sub-grid scale runoff routing. Based on the direct experience of the authors and colleagues in research and operational forecasting, this presentation describes examples of different streamflow forecast paradigms, from the traditional to the recent hyper-resolution, to illustrate the range of choices facing forecast system developers. We also discuss the degree to which the strengths and

  17. Estimation of analysis and forecast error variances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malaquias Peña

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Accurate estimates of error variances in numerical analyses and forecasts (i.e. difference between analysis or forecast fields and nature on the resolved scales are critical for the evaluation of forecasting systems, the tuning of data assimilation (DA systems and the proper initialisation of ensemble forecasts. Errors in observations and the difficulty in their estimation, the fact that estimates of analysis errors derived via DA schemes, are influenced by the same assumptions as those used to create the analysis fields themselves, and the presumed but unknown correlation between analysis and forecast errors make the problem difficult. In this paper, an approach is introduced for the unbiased estimation of analysis and forecast errors. The method is independent of any assumption or tuning parameter used in DA schemes. The method combines information from differences between forecast and analysis fields (‘perceived forecast errors’ with prior knowledge regarding the time evolution of (1 forecast error variance and (2 correlation between errors in analyses and forecasts. The quality of the error estimates, given the validity of the prior relationships, depends on the sample size of independent measurements of perceived errors. In a simulated forecast environment, the method is demonstrated to reproduce the true analysis and forecast error within predicted error bounds. The method is then applied to forecasts from four leading numerical weather prediction centres to assess the performance of their corresponding DA and modelling systems. Error variance estimates are qualitatively consistent with earlier studies regarding the performance of the forecast systems compared. The estimated correlation between forecast and analysis errors is found to be a useful diagnostic of the performance of observing and DA systems. In case of significant model-related errors, a methodology to decompose initial value and model-related forecast errors is also

  18. Defensive Forecasting: How to Use Similarity to Make Forecasts That Pass Statistical Tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafer, Glenn

    Defensive forecasting first identifies a betting strategy that succeeds if probabilistic forecasts are inaccurate and then makes forecasts that will defeat this strategy. Both the strategy and the forecasts are based on the similarity of the current situation to previous situations.

  19. Earthquake Forecasting System in Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falcone, G.; Marzocchi, W.; Murru, M.; Taroni, M.; Faenza, L.

    2017-12-01

    In Italy, after the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake, a procedure was developed for gathering and disseminating authoritative information about the time dependence of seismic hazard to help communities prepare for a potentially destructive earthquake. The most striking time dependency of the earthquake occurrence process is the time clustering, which is particularly pronounced in time windows of days and weeks. The Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF) system that is developed at the Seismic Hazard Center (Centro di Pericolosità Sismica, CPS) of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) is the authoritative source of seismic hazard information for Italian Civil Protection. The philosophy of the system rests on a few basic concepts: transparency, reproducibility, and testability. In particular, the transparent, reproducible, and testable earthquake forecasting system developed at CPS is based on ensemble modeling and on a rigorous testing phase. Such phase is carried out according to the guidance proposed by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP, international infrastructure aimed at evaluating quantitatively earthquake prediction and forecast models through purely prospective and reproducible experiments). In the OEF system, the two most popular short-term models were used: the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequences (ETAS) and the Short-Term Earthquake Probabilities (STEP). Here, we report the results from OEF's 24hour earthquake forecasting during the main phases of the 2016-2017 sequence occurred in Central Apennines (Italy).

  20. Forecasting College and University Revenues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Primary Research Group, Inc., New York, NY.

    This report examines issues and trends in college and university revenues. An introduction describes the study's organization and identifies data sources. An overview chapter summarizes major findings, including a forecast of college and university revenues from 1997 through 2001; trends in consumer spending on higher education; trends in tuition…

  1. Forecasting Cryptocurrencies Financial Time Series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Catania, Leopoldo; Grassi, Stefano; Ravazzolo, Francesco

    2018-01-01

    This paper studies the predictability of cryptocurrencies time series. We compare several alternative univariate and multivariate models in point and density forecasting of four of the most capitalized series: Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ripple and Ethereum. We apply a set of crypto–predictors and rely...

  2. Forecasting phenology under global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibáñez, Inés; Primack, Richard B; Miller-Rushing, Abraham J; Ellwood, Elizabeth; Higuchi, Hiroyoshi; Lee, Sang Don; Kobori, Hiromi; Silander, John A

    2010-10-12

    As a consequence of warming temperatures around the world, spring and autumn phenologies have been shifting, with corresponding changes in the length of the growing season. Our understanding of the spatial and interspecific variation of these changes, however, is limited. Not all species are responding similarly, and there is significant spatial variation in responses even within species. This spatial and interspecific variation complicates efforts to predict phenological responses to ongoing climate change, but must be incorporated in order to build reliable forecasts. Here, we use a long-term dataset (1953-2005) of plant phenological events in spring (flowering and leaf out) and autumn (leaf colouring and leaf fall) throughout Japan and South Korea to build forecasts that account for these sources of variability. Specifically, we used hierarchical models to incorporate the spatial variability in phenological responses to temperature to then forecast species' overall and site-specific responses to global warming. We found that for most species, spring phenology is advancing and autumn phenology is getting later, with the timing of events changing more quickly in autumn compared with the spring. Temporal trends and phenological responses to temperature in East Asia contrasted with results from comparable studies in Europe, where spring events are changing more rapidly than are autumn events. Our results emphasize the need to study multiple species at many sites to understand and forecast regional changes in phenology.

  3. Macroeconomic models, forecasting, and policymaking

    OpenAIRE

    Pescatori, Andrea; Zaman, Saeed

    2011-01-01

    Models of the macroeconomy have gotten quite sophisticated, thanks to decades of development and advances in computing power. Such models have also become indispensable tools for monetary policymakers, useful both for forecasting and comparing different policy options. Their failure to predict the recent financial crisis does not negate their use, it only points to some areas that can be improved.

  4. Forecasting phenology under global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibáñez, Inés; Primack, Richard B.; Miller-Rushing, Abraham J.; Ellwood, Elizabeth; Higuchi, Hiroyoshi; Lee, Sang Don; Kobori, Hiromi; Silander, John A.

    2010-01-01

    As a consequence of warming temperatures around the world, spring and autumn phenologies have been shifting, with corresponding changes in the length of the growing season. Our understanding of the spatial and interspecific variation of these changes, however, is limited. Not all species are responding similarly, and there is significant spatial variation in responses even within species. This spatial and interspecific variation complicates efforts to predict phenological responses to ongoing climate change, but must be incorporated in order to build reliable forecasts. Here, we use a long-term dataset (1953–2005) of plant phenological events in spring (flowering and leaf out) and autumn (leaf colouring and leaf fall) throughout Japan and South Korea to build forecasts that account for these sources of variability. Specifically, we used hierarchical models to incorporate the spatial variability in phenological responses to temperature to then forecast species' overall and site-specific responses to global warming. We found that for most species, spring phenology is advancing and autumn phenology is getting later, with the timing of events changing more quickly in autumn compared with the spring. Temporal trends and phenological responses to temperature in East Asia contrasted with results from comparable studies in Europe, where spring events are changing more rapidly than are autumn events. Our results emphasize the need to study multiple species at many sites to understand and forecast regional changes in phenology. PMID:20819816

  5. Operational models for forecasting Dst

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watanabe, S.; Sagawa, E.; Ohtaka, K.; Shimazu, H.

    We have constructed operational models for forecasting the geomagnetic storm index (Dst) two hours in advance from six parameters: the velocity and density of the solar wind, the magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), and the x, y, and z components of the IMF. Our models use an Elman-type neural network, and we forecast space weather by using real-time solar-wind data from the Advanced Composition Explorer spacecraft.The models have worked well since April of 1998 and the Dst values forecast using them have been made available to the public at http://www.crl.go.jp/uk/uk223/service/nnw/index.html. From February to October 1998 there were 11 storms with minimum Dst values below -80 nT, and for ten the difference between the forecast minimum Dst and the Dst calculated from data measured by ground stations was less than 23%.For the storm starting on 19 October, however, the difference was 40% because of the weak correlation between the ACE environment and the earth's environment during this event.The Dst depends on the orientation of the IMF relative to the solar magnetospheric x-y plane and seems to be relatively large when the y component of the IMF is positive and perhaps also when the x component is positive.

  6. Forecasting the space weather impact

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Crosby, N. B.; Veronig, A.; Robbrecht, E.

    2012-01-01

    The FP7 COronal Mass Ejections and Solar Energetic Particles (COMESEP) project is developing tools for forecasting geomagnetic storms and solar energetic particle (SEP) radiation storms. By analysis of historical data, complemented by the extensive data coverage of solar cycle 23, the key ingredi...

  7. Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauman, William H., III; Wheeler, Mark M.; Short, David A.

    2005-01-01

    This report presents a 15-year climatological study of severe weather events and related severe weather atmospheric parameters. Data sources included local forecast rules, archived sounding data, Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS) data, surface and upper air maps, and two severe weather event databases covering east-central Florida. The local forecast rules were used to set threat assessment thresholds for stability parameters that were derived from the sounding data. The severe weather events databases were used to identify days with reported severe weather and the CGLSS data was used to differentiate between lightning and non-lightning days. These data sets provided the foundation for analyzing the stability parameters and synoptic patterns that were used to develop an objective tool to aid in forecasting severe weather events. The period of record for the analysis was May - September, 1989 - 2003. The results indicate that there are certain synoptic patterns more prevalent on days with severe weather and some of the stability parameters are better predictors of severe weather days based on locally tuned threat values. The results also revealed the stability parameters that did not display any skill related to severe weather days. An interactive web-based Severe Weather Decision Aid was developed to assist the duty forecaster by providing a level of objective guidance based on the analysis of the stability parameters, CGLSS data, and synoptic-scale dynamics. The tool will be tested and evaluated during the 2005 warm season.

  8. Dust forecasting system in JMA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mikami, M; Tanaka, T Y; Maki, T

    2009-01-01

    JMAs dust forecasting information, which is based on a GCM dust model, is presented through the JMA website coupled with nowcast information. The website was updated recently and JMA and MOE joint 'KOSA' website was open from April 2008. Data assimilation technique will be introduced for improvement of the 'KOSA' information.

  9. Opportunities to improve marine forecasting

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Committee on Opportunities to Improve Marine Obser; Marine Board; Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems; Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences; National Research Council

    1989-01-01

    ... and Forecasting Marine Board Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1989 Copyrightoriginal retained, the be not from cannot book, paper original however, for version formatting, authoritative the typesetting-specific created from the as publication files other XML and from thi...

  10. Sense and Nonsense of Forecasting

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Novák, Mirko; Pelikán, Emil; Pecen, Ladislav

    1999-01-01

    Roč. 9, č. 1-2 (1999), s. 91-101 ISSN 1210-0552 Grant - others:MŠMT(CZ) VS96038 Institutional research plan: AV0Z1030915 Keywords : forecasting * prediction * time series * marker * model Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research

  11. In Brief: Forecasting meningitis threats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Showstack, Randy

    2008-12-01

    The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), in conjunction with a team of health and weather organizations, has launched a project to provide weather forecasts to medical officials in Africa to help reduce outbreaks of meningitis. The forecasts will enable local health care providers to target vaccination programs more effectively. In 2009, meteorologists with the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is managed by UCAR, will begin issuing 14-day forecasts of atmospheric conditions in Ghana. Later, UCAR plans to work closely with health experts from several African countries to design and test a decision support system to provide health officials with useful meteorological information. ``By targeting forecasts in regions where meningitis is a threat, we may be able to help vulnerable populations. Ultimately, we hope to build on this project and provide information to public health programs battling weather-related diseases in other parts of the world,'' said Rajul Pandya, director of UCAR's Community Building Program. Funding for the project comes from a $900,000 grant from Google.org, the philanthropic arm of the Internet search company.

  12. Winter wheat quality monitoring and forecasting system based on remote sensing and environmental factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haiyang, Yu; Yanmei, Liu; Guijun, Yang; Xiaodong, Yang; Chenwei, Nie; Dong, Ren

    2014-01-01

    To achieve dynamic winter wheat quality monitoring and forecasting in larger scale regions, the objective of this study was to design and develop a winter wheat quality monitoring and forecasting system by using a remote sensing index and environmental factors. The winter wheat quality trend was forecasted before the harvest and quality was monitored after the harvest, respectively. The traditional quality-vegetation index from remote sensing monitoring and forecasting models were improved. Combining with latitude information, the vegetation index was used to estimate agronomy parameters which were related with winter wheat quality in the early stages for forecasting the quality trend. A combination of rainfall in May, temperature in May, illumination at later May, the soil available nitrogen content and other environmental factors established the quality monitoring model. Compared with a simple quality-vegetation index, the remote sensing monitoring and forecasting model used in this system get greatly improved accuracy. Winter wheat quality was monitored and forecasted based on the above models, and this system was completed based on WebGIS technology. Finally, in 2010 the operation process of winter wheat quality monitoring system was presented in Beijing, the monitoring and forecasting results was outputted as thematic maps

  13. Price forecast in the competitive electricity market by support vector machine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Ciwei; Bompard, Ettore; Napoli, Roberto; Cheng, Haozhong

    2007-08-01

    The electricity market has been widely introduced in many countries all over the world and the study on electricity price forecast technology has drawn a lot of attention. In this paper, with different parameter C i and ε i assigned to each training data, the flexible C i Support Vector Regression (SVR) model is developed in terms of the particularity of the price forecast in electricity market. For Day Ahead Market (DAM) price forecast, the load, time of use index and index of day type are taken as the major factors to characterize the market price, therefore, they are selected as the inputs for the flexible SVR forecast model. For the long-term price forecast, we take the reserve margin Rm, HHI and the fuel price index as the inputs, since they are the major factors that drive the market price variation in long run. For short-term price forecast, besides the detailed analysis with the young Italian electricity market, the new model is tested on the experimental stage of the Spanish market, the New York market and the New England market. The long-term forecast with the SVR model presented is justified by the forecast with the data from the Long Run Market Simulator (LREMS).

  14. Applying Different Independent Component Analysis Algorithms and Support Vector Regression for IT Chain Store Sales Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Wensheng

    2014-01-01

    Sales forecasting is one of the most important issues in managing information technology (IT) chain store sales since an IT chain store has many branches. Integrating feature extraction method and prediction tool, such as support vector regression (SVR), is a useful method for constructing an effective sales forecasting scheme. Independent component analysis (ICA) is a novel feature extraction technique and has been widely applied to deal with various forecasting problems. But, up to now, only the basic ICA method (i.e., temporal ICA model) was applied to sale forecasting problem. In this paper, we utilize three different ICA methods including spatial ICA (sICA), temporal ICA (tICA), and spatiotemporal ICA (stICA) to extract features from the sales data and compare their performance in sales forecasting of IT chain store. Experimental results from a real sales data show that the sales forecasting scheme by integrating stICA and SVR outperforms the comparison models in terms of forecasting error. The stICA is a promising tool for extracting effective features from branch sales data and the extracted features can improve the prediction performance of SVR for sales forecasting. PMID:25165740

  15. Adaptive correction of ensemble forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pelosi, Anna; Battista Chirico, Giovanni; Van den Bergh, Joris; Vannitsem, Stephane

    2017-04-01

    Forecasts from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models often suffer from both systematic and non-systematic errors. These are present in both deterministic and ensemble forecasts, and originate from various sources such as model error and subgrid variability. Statistical post-processing techniques can partly remove such errors, which is particularly important when NWP outputs concerning surface weather variables are employed for site specific applications. Many different post-processing techniques have been developed. For deterministic forecasts, adaptive methods such as the Kalman filter are often used, which sequentially post-process the forecasts by continuously updating the correction parameters as new ground observations become available. These methods are especially valuable when long training data sets do not exist. For ensemble forecasts, well-known techniques are ensemble model output statistics (EMOS), and so-called "member-by-member" approaches (MBM). Here, we introduce a new adaptive post-processing technique for ensemble predictions. The proposed method is a sequential Kalman filtering technique that fully exploits the information content of the ensemble. One correction equation is retrieved and applied to all members, however the parameters of the regression equations are retrieved by exploiting the second order statistics of the forecast ensemble. We compare our new method with two other techniques: a simple method that makes use of a running bias correction of the ensemble mean, and an MBM post-processing approach that rescales the ensemble mean and spread, based on minimization of the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS). We perform a verification study for the region of Campania in southern Italy. We use two years (2014-2015) of daily meteorological observations of 2-meter temperature and 10-meter wind speed from 18 ground-based automatic weather stations distributed across the region, comparing them with the corresponding COSMO

  16. Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts for African Basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serrat-Capdevila, A.; Valdes, J. B.; Wi, S.; Roy, T.; Roberts, J. B.; Robertson, F. R.; Demaria, E. M.

    2015-12-01

    Using high resolution downscaled seasonal meteorological forecasts we present the development and evaluation of seasonal hydrologic forecasts with Stakeholder Agencies for selected African basins. The meteorological forecasts are produced using the Bias Correction and Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD) methodology applied to NMME hindcasts (North American Multi-Model Ensemble prediction system) to generate a bootstrap resampling of plausible weather forecasts from historical observational data. This set of downscaled forecasts is then used to drive hydrologic models to produce a range of forecasts with uncertainty estimates suitable for water resources planning in African pilot basins (i.e. Upper Zambezi, Mara Basin). In an effort to characterize the utility of these forecasts, we will present an evaluation of these forecast ensembles over the pilot basins, and discuss insights as to their operational applicability by regional actors. Further, these forecasts will be contrasted with those from a standard Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) approach to seasonal forecasting. The case studies presented here have been developed in the setting of the NASA SERVIR Applied Sciences Team and within the broader context of operational seasonal forecasting in Africa. These efforts are part of a dialogue with relevant planning and management agencies and institutions in Africa, which are in turn exploring how to best use uncertain forecasts for decision making.

  17. Interval Forecast for Smooth Transition Autoregressive Model ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper, we propose a simple method for constructing interval forecast for smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) model. This interval forecast is based on bootstrapping the residual error of the estimated STAR model for each forecast horizon and computing various Akaike information criterion (AIC) function. This new ...

  18. New interval forecast for stationary autoregressive models ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper, we proposed a new forecasting interval for stationary Autoregressive, AR(p) models using the Akaike information criterion (AIC) function. Ordinarily, the AIC function is used to determine the order of an AR(p) process. In this study however, AIC forecast interval compared favorably with the theoretical forecast ...

  19. Mesoscale model forecast verification during monsoon 2008

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The systematic error in the 850 hPa temperature indicates that largely the WRF model forecasts feature warm bias and the MM5 model forecasts feature cold bias. Features common to all the three models include warm bias over northwest India and cold bias over southeast peninsula. The 850 hPa specific humidity forecast ...

  20. Forecasting Market Shares from Models for Sales

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D. Fok (Dennis); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    2000-01-01

    textabstractDividing forecasts of brand sales by a forecast of category sales, when they are generated from brand specific sales-response models, renders biased forecasts of the brands' market shares. In this paper we therefore propose an easy-to-apply simulation-based method which results in

  1. Forecasting nuclear power supply with Bayesian autoregression

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beck, R.; Solow, J.L.

    1994-01-01

    We explore the possibility of forecasting the quarterly US generation of electricity from nuclear power using a Bayesian autoregression model. In terms of forecasting accuracy, this approach compares favorably with both the Department of Energy's current forecasting methodology and their more recent efforts using ARIMA models, and it is extremely easy and inexpensive to implement. (author)

  2. A New Reference for Wind Power Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Torben Skov; Joensen, Alfred K.; Madsen, Henrik

    1998-01-01

    In recent years some research towards developing forecasting models for wind power or energy has been carried out. In order to evaluate the prediction ability of these models, the forecasts are usually compared with those of the persistence forecast model. As shown in this article, however...

  3. Intermittent demand : Linking forecasting to inventory obsolescence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Teunter, Ruud H.; Syntetos, Aris A.; Babai, M. Zied

    2011-01-01

    The standard method to forecast intermittent demand is that by Croston. This method is available in ERP-type solutions such as SAP and specialised forecasting software packages (e.g. Forecast Pro), and often applied in practice. It uses exponential smoothing to separately update the estimated demand

  4. Application of probabilistic precipitation forecasts from a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Application of probabilistic precipitation forecasts from a deterministic model towards increasing the lead-time of flash flood forecasts in South Africa. ... The procedure is applied to a real flash flood event and the ensemble-based rainfall forecasts are verified against rainfall estimated by the SAFFG system. The approach ...

  5. Maturation of the adolescent brain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arain M

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Mariam Arain, Maliha Haque, Lina Johal, Puja Mathur, Wynand Nel, Afsha Rais, Ranbir Sandhu, Sushil Sharma Saint James School of Medicine, Kralendijk, Bonaire, The Netherlands Abstract: Adolescence is the developmental epoch during which children become adults – intellectually, physically, hormonally, and socially. Adolescence is a tumultuous time, full of changes and transformations. The pubertal transition to adulthood involves both gonadal and behavioral maturation. Magnetic resonance imaging studies have discovered that myelinogenesis, required for proper insulation and efficient neurocybernetics, continues from childhood and the brain's region-specific neurocircuitry remains structurally and functionally vulnerable to impulsive sex, food, and sleep habits. The maturation of the adolescent brain is also influenced by heredity, environment, and sex hormones (estrogen, progesterone, and testosterone, which play a crucial role in myelination. Furthermore, glutamatergic neurotransmission predominates, whereas gamma-aminobutyric acid neurotransmission remains under construction, and this might be responsible for immature and impulsive behavior and neurobehavioral excitement during adolescent life. The adolescent population is highly vulnerable to driving under the influence of alcohol and social maladjustments due to an immature limbic system and prefrontal cortex. Synaptic plasticity and the release of neurotransmitters may also be influenced by environmental neurotoxins and drugs of abuse including cigarettes, caffeine, and alcohol during adolescence. Adolescents may become involved with offensive crimes, irresponsible behavior, unprotected sex, juvenile courts, or even prison. According to a report by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the major cause of death among the teenage population is due to injury and violence related to sex and substance abuse. Prenatal neglect, cigarette smoking, and alcohol consumption may also

  6. Maturation of the adolescent brain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arain, Mariam; Haque, Maliha; Johal, Lina; Mathur, Puja; Nel, Wynand; Rais, Afsha; Sandhu, Ranbir; Sharma, Sushil

    2013-01-01

    Adolescence is the developmental epoch during which children become adults - intellectually, physically, hormonally, and socially. Adolescence is a tumultuous time, full of changes and transformations. The pubertal transition to adulthood involves both gonadal and behavioral maturation. Magnetic resonance imaging studies have discovered that myelinogenesis, required for proper insulation and efficient neurocybernetics, continues from childhood and the brain's region-specific neurocircuitry remains structurally and functionally vulnerable to impulsive sex, food, and sleep habits. The maturation of the adolescent brain is also influenced by heredity, environment, and sex hormones (estrogen, progesterone, and testosterone), which play a crucial role in myelination. Furthermore, glutamatergic neurotransmission predominates, whereas gamma-aminobutyric acid neurotransmission remains under construction, and this might be responsible for immature and impulsive behavior and neurobehavioral excitement during adolescent life. The adolescent population is highly vulnerable to driving under the influence of alcohol and social maladjustments due to an immature limbic system and prefrontal cortex. Synaptic plasticity and the release of neurotransmitters may also be influenced by environmental neurotoxins and drugs of abuse including cigarettes, caffeine, and alcohol during adolescence. Adolescents may become involved with offensive crimes, irresponsible behavior, unprotected sex, juvenile courts, or even prison. According to a report by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the major cause of death among the teenage population is due to injury and violence related to sex and substance abuse. Prenatal neglect, cigarette smoking, and alcohol consumption may also significantly impact maturation of the adolescent brain. Pharmacological interventions to regulate adolescent behavior have been attempted with limited success. Since several factors, including age, sex, disease

  7. Maturity model for enterprise interoperability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guédria, Wided; Naudet, Yannick; Chen, David

    2015-01-01

    Historically, progress occurs when entities communicate, share information and together create something that no one individually could do alone. Moving beyond people to machines and systems, interoperability is becoming a key factor of success in all domains. In particular, interoperability has become a challenge for enterprises, to exploit market opportunities, to meet their own objectives of cooperation or simply to survive in a growing competitive world where the networked enterprise is becoming a standard. Within this context, many research works have been conducted over the past few years and enterprise interoperability has become an important area of research, ensuring the competitiveness and growth of European enterprises. Among others, enterprises have to control their interoperability strategy and enhance their ability to interoperate. This is the purpose of the interoperability assessment. Assessing interoperability maturity allows a company to know its strengths and weaknesses in terms of interoperability with its current and potential partners, and to prioritise actions for improvement. The objective of this paper is to define a maturity model for enterprise interoperability that takes into account existing maturity models while extending the coverage of the interoperability domain. The assessment methodology is also presented. Both are demonstrated with a real case study.

  8. Richardson's Barotropic Forecast: A Reappraisal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch, Peter

    1992-01-01

    To elucidate his numerical technique and to examine the effectiveness of geostrophic initial winds, Lewis Fry Richardson carried out an idealized forecast using the linear shallow-water equations and simple analytical pressure and velocity fields. This barotropic forecast has been repeated and extended using a global numerical model, and the results are presented in this paper. Richardson's conclusions regarding the use of geostrophic winds as initial data are reconsidered.An analysis of Richardson's data into normal modes shows that almost 85% of the energy is accounted for by a single eigenmode, the gravest symmetric rotational Hough mode, which travels westward with a period of about five days. This five-day wave has been detected in analyses of stratospheric data. It is striking that the fields chosen by Richardson on considerations of smoothness should so closely resemble a natural oscillation of the atmosphere.The numerical model employed in this study uses an implicit differencing technique, which is stable for large time steps. The numerical instability that would have destroyed Richardson's barotropic forecast, had it been extended, is thereby circumvented. It is sometimes said that computational instability was the cause of the failure of Richardson's baroclinic forecast, for which he obtained a pressure tendency value two orders of magnitude too large. However, the initial tendency is independent of the time step (at least for the explicit scheme used by Richardson). In fact, the spurious tendency resulted from the presence of unrealistically large high-frequency gravity-wave components in the initial fields.High-frequency oscillations are also found in the evolution starting from the idealized data in the barotropic forecast. They are shown to be due to the gravity-wave components of the initial data. These oscillations may be removed by a slight modification of the initial fields. This initialization is effected by means of a simple digital filtering

  9. A Wind Forecasting System for Energy Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Courtney, Jennifer; Lynch, Peter; Sweeney, Conor

    2010-05-01

    Accurate forecasting of available energy is crucial for the efficient management and use of wind power in the national power grid. With energy output critically dependent upon wind strength there is a need to reduce the errors associated wind forecasting. The objective of this research is to get the best possible wind forecasts for the wind energy industry. To achieve this goal, three methods are being applied. First, a mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model called WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) is being used to predict wind values over Ireland. Currently, a gird resolution of 10km is used and higher model resolutions are being evaluated to establish whether they are economically viable given the forecast skill improvement they produce. Second, the WRF model is being used in conjunction with ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ensemble forecasts to produce a probabilistic weather forecasting product. Due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, a single, deterministic weather forecast can only have limited skill. The ECMWF ensemble methods produce an ensemble of 51 global forecasts, twice a day, by perturbing initial conditions of a 'control' forecast which is the best estimate of the initial state of the atmosphere. This method provides an indication of the reliability of the forecast and a quantitative basis for probabilistic forecasting. The limitation of ensemble forecasting lies in the fact that the perturbed model runs behave differently under different weather patterns and each model run is equally likely to be closest to the observed weather situation. Models have biases, and involve assumptions about physical processes and forcing factors such as underlying topography. Third, Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is being applied to the output from the ensemble forecasts in order to statistically post-process the results and achieve a better wind forecasting system. BMA is a promising technique that will offer calibrated

  10. Maturity Models in the Age of Digital Diversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Kim Normann; Henriksen, Helle Zinner; Medaglia, Rony

    2012-01-01

    This chapter proposes a reorientation of the e-government maturity models by focusing on the activities rather than on the formal organizational structures and have the citizens as the key stakeholder for future e-government investments. We draw upon a discussion on the limitations of the popular e-government...... maturity model by Layne and Lee [1] included in the proposal of the Public Sector Process Rebuilding (PPR) model [2, 3]. The adoption and adaptation of Web 2.0 platforms and location-based services, and the parallel extension of conventional technologies as SMS and web-based self-services, challenge...... the view that e-government is focused in a formal organizational span of control. We propose a refined operationalization of the PPR maturity model, arguing that the activities and individual workers within the public sector and the citizens using and co-producing the public services will be the vehicle...

  11. Verification of cloud cover forecast with INSAT observation over ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Forecast verification serves many important purposes. These purposes include assessing the state-of-the-art forecasting and recent trends in forecast quality, improving forecasting procedures and ultimately the forecast themselves, and providing users with information needed to make effective use of the forecasts. Table 2.

  12. Solar Storm GIC Forecasting: Solar Shield Extension Development of the End-User Forecasting System Requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulkkinen, A.; Mahmood, S.; Ngwira, C.; Balch, C.; Lordan, R.; Fugate, D.; Jacobs, W.; Honkonen, I.

    2015-01-01

    A NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Heliophysics Science Division-led team that includes NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, the Catholic University of America, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), and Electric Research and Management, Inc., recently partnered with the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate (S&T) to better understand the impact of Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GIC) on the electric power industry. This effort builds on a previous NASA-sponsored Applied Sciences Program for predicting GIC, known as Solar Shield. The focus of the new DHS S&T funded effort is to revise and extend the existing Solar Shield system to enhance its forecasting capability and provide tailored, timely, actionable information for electric utility decision makers. To enhance the forecasting capabilities of the new Solar Shield, a key undertaking is to extend the prediction system coverage across Contiguous United States (CONUS), as the previous version was only applicable to high latitudes. The team also leverages the latest enhancements in space weather modeling capacity residing at Community Coordinated Modeling Center to increase the Technological Readiness Level, or Applications Readiness Level of the system http://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/files/ExpandedARLDefinitions4813.pdf.

  13. Exploring the interactions between forecast accuracy, risk perception and perceived forecast reliability in reservoir operator's decision to use forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafiee-Jood, M.; Cai, X.

    2017-12-01

    Advances in streamflow forecasts at different time scales offer a promise for proactive flood management and improved risk management. Despite the huge potential, previous studies have found that water resources managers are often not willing to incorporate streamflow forecasts information in decisions making, particularly in risky situations. While low accuracy of forecasts information is often cited as the main reason, some studies have found that implementation of streamflow forecasts sometimes is impeded by institutional obstacles and behavioral factors (e.g., risk perception). In fact, a seminal study by O'Connor et al. (2005) found that risk perception is the strongest determinant of forecast use while managers' perception about forecast reliability is not significant. In this study, we aim to address this issue again. However, instead of using survey data and regression analysis, we develop a theoretical framework to assess the user-perceived value of streamflow forecasts. The framework includes a novel behavioral component which incorporates both risk perception and perceived forecast reliability. The framework is then used in a hypothetical problem where reservoir operator should react to probabilistic flood forecasts with different reliabilities. The framework will allow us to explore the interactions among risk perception and perceived forecast reliability, and among the behavioral components and information accuracy. The findings will provide insights to improve the usability of flood forecasts information through better communication and education.

  14. Relating Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Error Distributions with Measurements of Forecast Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-01

    multi -model ensembles (consensus models), both of which NHC has access to. 1. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Ensemble The...still greatly aid NHC forecasters . By running the MC method on the ECMWF EMN forecast , the already superior ECMWF model output can be further...CYCLONE TRACK FORECAST ERROR DISTRIBUTIONS WITH MEASUREMENTS OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY by Nicholas M. Chisler March 2016 Thesis Advisor

  15. Changes in gene expression during follicle maturation in rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss

    Science.gov (United States)

    Failure to successfully complete ovarian follicle maturation is one of the most common reproductive problems in captive female broodstock, often requiring the use of reproductive assistance technologies. An improved understanding of how requisite environmental and social conditions translate in...

  16. The 1999 Survey of High Maturity Organizations

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Paulk, Mark

    2000-01-01

    Over the last few years the Software Engineering Institute has investigated the high maturity practices of Maturity Level 4 and 5 software organizations via assessments, site visits, workshops, and surveys...

  17. Vendor managed forecasting: A case study of small enterprise

    OpenAIRE

    Atul B. Borade; Satish Bansod

    2009-01-01

    Enterprises use supply chain management practices for improving business or supply chain performance. It is observed that supply chain technologies like VMI are now becoming an integral part of enterprise’s strategy. Even small and medium enterprises can adopt this practice and improve the performance of supply chain. This paper discusses vendor managed forecasting with the help of case study. It shows how a small enterprise improves supply chain performance by using demand rel...

  18. Forecast Collaboration in Grocery Supply Chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aastrup, Jesper; Gammelgaard, Britta

    -requisites, degree of forecast collaboration, demand related contingency factors and outcomes/KPIs based. The hypotheses are tested in a survey among Danish grocery suppliers. The survey findings provide evidence of a positive effect of collaborative orientation and retailer competencies and trustworthiness...... on the degress of forecast collaboration. Also, campaign frequency as a demand related contingency variable is found to positively affect degree of forecast collaboration. Finally, the survey findings provide evidence of a positive effect of degree of forecast collaboration on inventory levels and forecast...

  19. Forecasting Interest Rates Using Geostatistical Techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuseppe Arbia

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Geostatistical spatial models are widely used in many applied fields to forecast data observed on continuous three-dimensional surfaces. We propose to extend their use to finance and, in particular, to forecasting yield curves. We present the results of an empirical application where we apply the proposed method to forecast Euro Zero Rates (2003–2014 using the Ordinary Kriging method based on the anisotropic variogram. Furthermore, a comparison with other recent methods for forecasting yield curves is proposed. The results show that the model is characterized by good levels of predictions’ accuracy and it is competitive with the other forecasting models considered.

  20. Online load forecasting for supermarket refrigeration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a study of models for forecasting the load for supermarket refrigeration. The data used for building the forecasting models consists of load measurements, local climate measurements and weather forecasts. The load measurements are from a supermarket located in a village...... in Denmark. Every hour the hourly load for refrigeration for the following 42 hours is forecasted. The forecast models are time adaptive linear time-series models. The dynamic relations between the inputs and the load is modeled by simple transfer functions. The system operates in two regimes: one...