WorldWideScience

Sample records for technology maturity forecasting

  1. Forecasting and management of technology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Roper, A. T

    2011-01-01

    .... The scope of this edition has broadened to include management of technology content that is relevant to now to executives in organizations while updating and strengthening the technology forecasting...

  2. A Delphi forecast of technology in education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, B. E.

    1973-01-01

    The results are reported of a Delphi forecast of the utilization and social impacts of large-scale educational telecommunications technology. The focus is on both forecasting methodology and educational technology. The various methods of forecasting used by futurists are analyzed from the perspective of the most appropriate method for a prognosticator of educational technology, and review and critical analysis are presented of previous forecasts and studies. Graphic responses, summarized comments, and a scenario of education in 1990 are presented.

  3. Hydrocarbon Rocket Technology Impact Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuber, Eric; Prasadh, Nishant; Edwards, Stephen; Mavris, Dimitri N.

    2012-01-01

    Ever since the Apollo program ended, the development of launch propulsion systems in the US has fallen drastically, with only two new booster engine developments, the SSME and the RS-68, occurring in the past few decades.1 In recent years, however, there has been an increased interest in pursuing more effective launch propulsion technologies in the U.S., exemplified by the NASA Office of the Chief Technologist s inclusion of Launch Propulsion Systems as the first technological area in the Space Technology Roadmaps2. One area of particular interest to both government agencies and commercial entities has been the development of hydrocarbon engines; NASA and the Air Force Research Lab3 have expressed interest in the use of hydrocarbon fuels for their respective SLS Booster and Reusable Booster System concepts, and two major commercially-developed launch vehicles SpaceX s Falcon 9 and Orbital Sciences Antares feature engines that use RP-1 kerosene fuel. Compared to engines powered by liquid hydrogen, hydrocarbon-fueled engines have a greater propellant density (usually resulting in a lighter overall engine), produce greater propulsive force, possess easier fuel handling and loading, and for reusable vehicle concepts can provide a shorter turnaround time between launches. These benefits suggest that a hydrocarbon-fueled launch vehicle would allow for a cheap and frequent means of access to space.1 However, the time and money required for the development of a new engine still presents a major challenge. Long and costly design, development, testing and evaluation (DDT&E) programs underscore the importance of identifying critical technologies and prioritizing investment efforts. Trade studies must be performed on engine concepts examining the affordability, operability, and reliability of each concept, and quantifying the impacts of proposed technologies. These studies can be performed through use of the Technology Impact Forecasting (TIF) method. The Technology Impact

  4. Commercial Space with Technology Maturation

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCleskey, Carey M.; Rhodes, Russell E.; Robinson, John W.

    2013-01-01

    To provide affordable space transportation we must be capable of using common fixed assets and the infrastructure for multiple purposes simultaneously. The Space Shuttle was operated for thirty years, but was not able to establish an effective continuous improvement program because of the high risk to the crew on every mission. An unmanned capability is needed to provide an acceptable risk to the primary mission. This paper is intended to present a case where a commercial space venture could share the large fixed cost of operating the infrastructure with the government while the government provides new advanced technology that is focused on reduced operating cost to the common launch transportation system. A conceivable commercial space venture could provide educational entertainment for the country's youth that would stimulate their interest in the science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) through access at entertainment parks or the existing Space Visitor Centers. The paper uses this example to demonstrate how growing public-private space market demand will re-orient space transportation industry priorities in flight and ground system design and technology development, and how the infrastructure is used and shared.

  5. Modeling timelines for translational science in cancer; the impact of technological maturation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura M McNamee

    Full Text Available This work examines translational science in cancer based on theories of innovation that posit a relationship between the maturation of technologies and their capacity to generate successful products. We examined the growth of technologies associated with 138 anticancer drugs using an analytical model that identifies the point of initiation of exponential growth and the point at which growth slows as the technology becomes established. Approval of targeted and biological products corresponded with technological maturation, with first approval averaging 14 years after the established point and 44 years after initiation of associated technologies. The lag in cancer drug approvals after the increases in cancer funding and dramatic scientific advances of the 1970s thus reflects predictable timelines of technology maturation. Analytical models of technological maturation may be used for technological forecasting to guide more efficient translation of scientific discoveries into cures.

  6. Computer technology forecasting at the National Laboratories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peskin, A.M.

    1980-01-01

    The DOE Office of ADP Management organized a group of scientists and computer professionals, mostly from their own national laboratories, to prepare an annually updated technology forecast to accompany the Department's five-year ADP Plan. The activities of the task force were originally reported in an informal presentation made at the ACM Conference in 1978. This presentation represents an update of that report. It also deals with the process of applying the results obtained at a particular computing center, Brookhaven National Laboratory. Computer technology forecasting is a difficult and hazardous endeavor, but it can reap considerable advantage. The forecast performed on an industry-wide basis can be applied to the particular needs of a given installation, and thus give installation managers considerable guidance in planning. A beneficial side effect of this process is that it forces installation managers, who might otherwise tend to preoccupy themselves with immediate problems, to focus on longer term goals and means to their ends

  7. Forecasting Technological Discontinuities in the ICT Industry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoisl, Karin; Stelzer, Tobias; Biala, Stefanie

    2015-01-01

    in the ICT industry. The conjoint approach allows for a simulation of the forecasting process and considers utility trade-offs. The results show that for both types of experts the perceived benefit of users most highly contributes to predicting technological discontinuities. Internal experts assign more...

  8. Forecasting and management of technology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Roper, A. T

    2011-01-01

    ... what the authors see as the innovations to technology management in the last 17 years: the Internet; the greater focus on group decision-making including process management and mechanism design; and desktop software that has transformed the analytical capabilities of technology managers"--Provided by publisher.

  9. Forecasting and management of technology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Roper, A. T

    2011-01-01

    "The new, revised edition of this book will build on this knowledge in the context of business organizations that now place a greater emphasis on technology to stay on the cutting edge of development...

  10. Maturing Technologies for Stirling Space Power Generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Scott D.; Nowlin, Brentley C.; Dobbs, Michael W.; Schmitz, Paul C.; Huth, James

    2016-01-01

    Stirling Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS) are being developed as an option to provide power on future space science missions where robotic spacecraft will orbit, flyby, land or rove. A Stirling Radioisotope Generator (SRG) could offer space missions a more efficient power system that uses one fourth of the nuclear fuel and decreases the thermal footprint of the current state of the art. The RPS Program Office, working in collaboration with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), manages projects to develop thermoelectric and dynamic power systems, including Stirling Radioisotope Generators (SRGs). The Stirling Cycle Technology Development (SCTD) Project, located at Glenn Research Center (GRC), is developing Stirling-based subsystems, including convertors and controllers. The SCTD Project also performs research that focuses on a wide variety of objectives, including increasing convertor temperature capability to enable new environments, improving system reliability or fault tolerance, reducing mass or size, and developing advanced concepts that are mission enabling. Research activity includes maturing subsystems, assemblies, and components to prepare them for infusion into future convertor and generator designs. The status of several technology development efforts are described here. As part of the maturation process, technologies are assessed for readiness in higher-level subsystems. To assess the readiness level of the Dual Convertor Controller (DCC), a Technology Readiness Assessment (TRA) was performed and the process and results are shown. Stirling technology research is being performed by the SCTD Project for NASA's RPS Program Office, where tasks focus on maturation of Stirling-based systems and subsystems for future space science missions.

  11. A Maturity Analysis of Big Data Technologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radu BONCEA

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In recent years Big Data technologies have been developed at faster pace due to increase in demand from applications that generate and process vast amount of data. The Cloud Computing and the Internet of Things are the main drivers for developing enterprise solutions that support Business Intelligence which in turn, creates new opportunities and new business models. An enterprise can now collect data about its internal processes, process this data to gain new insights and business value and make better decisions. And this is the reason why Big Data is now seen as a vital component in any enterprise architecture. In this article the maturity of several Big Data technologies is put under analysis. For each technology there are several aspects considered, such as development status, market usage, licensing policies, availability for certifications, adoption, support for cloud computing and enterprise.

  12. Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC) Technology Maturation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Wayne A.; Wilson, Scott; Collins, Josh; Wilson, Kyle

    2016-01-01

    The Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC) development effort was initiated by NASA Glenn Research Center with contractor Sunpower, Inc., to develop high-efficiency thermal-to-electric power conversion technology for NASA Radioisotope Power Systems (RPSs). Early successful performance demonstrations led to the expansion of the project as well as adoption of the technology by the Department of Energy (DOE) and system integration contractor Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company as part of the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) flight project. The ASRG integrates a pair of ASCs to convert the heat from a pair of General Purpose Heat Source (GPHS) modules into electrical power. The expanded NASA ASC effort included development of several generations of ASC prototypes or engineering units to help prepare the ASC technology and Sunpower for flight implementation. Sunpower later had two parallel contracts allowing the last of the NASA engineering units called ASC-E3 to serve as pathfinders for the ASC-F flight convertors being built for DOE. The ASC-E3 convertors utilized the ASC-F flight specifications and were built using the ASC-F design and process documentation. Shortly after the first ASC-F pair achieved initial operation, due to budget constraints, the DOE ASRG flight development contract was terminated. NASA continues to invest in the development of Stirling RPS technology including continued production of the ASC-E3 convertors, seven of which have been delivered with one additional unit in production. Starting in fiscal year 2015, Stirling Convertor Technology Maturation has been reorganized as an element of the RPS Stirling Cycle Technology Development (SCTD) Project and long-term plans for continued Stirling technology advancement are in reformulation. This paper provides a status on the ASC project, an overview of advancements made in the design and production of the ASC at Sunpower, and a summary of acceptance tests, reliability tests, and tactical

  13. Extravehicular Activity Technology Development Status and Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chullen, Cinda; Westheimer, David T.

    2011-01-01

    The goal of NASA s current EVA technology effort is to further develop technologies that will be used to demonstrate a robust EVA system that has application for a variety of future missions including microgravity and surface EVA. Overall the objectives will be to reduce system mass, reduce consumables and maintenance, increase EVA hardware robustness and life, increase crew member efficiency and autonomy, and enable rapid vehicle egress and ingress. Over the past several years, NASA realized a tremendous increase in EVA system development as part of the Exploration Technology Development Program and the Constellation Program. The evident demand for efficient and reliable EVA technologies, particularly regenerable technologies was apparent under these former programs and will continue to be needed as future mission opportunities arise. The technological need for EVA in space has been realized over the last several decades by the Gemini, Apollo, Skylab, Space Shuttle, and the International Space Station (ISS) programs. EVAs were critical to the success of these programs. Now with the ISS extension to 2028 in conjunction with a current forecasted need of at least eight EVAs per year, the EVA hardware life and limited availability of the Extravehicular Mobility Units (EMUs) will eventually become a critical issue. The current EMU has successfully served EVA demands by performing critical operations to assemble the ISS and provide repairs of satellites such as the Hubble Space Telescope. However, as the life of ISS and the vision for future mission opportunities are realized, a new EVA systems capability will be needed and the current architectures and technologies under development offer significant improvements over the current flight systems. In addition to ISS, potential mission applications include EVAs for missions to Near Earth Objects (NEO), Phobos, or future surface missions. Surface missions could include either exploration of the Moon or Mars. Providing an

  14. Methodology for Diagnostics of the Company Management and Technological Maturity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olena Martynyuk

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Approaches to the measurement and assessment of the company technological maturity level and management maturity apart, formulated in scientific researches and practical recommendations, significantly differ according to their purpose, content and depth of the factors analysis. Studies of the company technological maturity and possibility for implementing business processes and certain IT technologies have become more advanced in some degree. The general idea of forming a model of diagnostics of the management and technological maturity is based on the determination of prevailing company system influence components. Management techniques are a nucleus of the model, and the innovation level of management techniques is an energy impulse inciting to development. Basing on the analysis performed, the author created a concept of levels of the company management and technological maturity considering the main parameters of the company management and technological maturity. A composite algorithm was proposed for determining the level of managerial technological maturity (LMTM, end exposition of a complex of management techniques to ensure the company dynamic progress based on determining a level of the management and technological maturity. The advantages and disadvantages are determined by the methodology. The performed approbation has confirmed the approach validity and its usefulness. The approbation shows the reliability and unambiguity of interpreting results. To use it for bigger enterprises and corporations, it is not even necessary to change identification parameters.

  15. Predicting technology operational availability using technical maturity assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kenley, C.R.; Creque, T.R.

    1998-01-01

    A technical maturity assessment method was performed by systems engineers in collaboration with an advisory panel composed of team members from different Department of Energy sites and from different engineering and science disciplines. Various stabilization technologies were assessed annually as to their relative maturity and availability for use in stabilizing nuclear materials. After three years of assessments, several of the technologies are now components of operational systems. A regression analysis of the historical assessments was performed, and it was concluded that the numerical technical maturity score produced by a team of experts can provide a powerful predictor of the time remaining until the operational application of technologies

  16. As Technologies for Nucleotide Therapeutics Mature, Products Emerge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beierlein, Jennifer M; McNamee, Laura M; Ledley, Fred D

    2017-12-15

    The long path from initial research on oligonucleotide therapies to approval of antisense products is not unfamiliar. This lag resembles those encountered with monoclonal antibodies, gene therapies, and many biological targets and is consistent with studies of innovation showing that technology maturation is a critical determinant of product success. We previously described an analytical model for the maturation of biomedical research, demonstrating that the efficiency of targeted and biological development is connected to metrics of technology growth. The present work applies this model to characterize the advance of oligonucleotide therapeutics. We show that recent oligonucleotide product approvals incorporate technologies and targets that are past the established point of technology growth, as do most of the oligonucleotide products currently in phase 3. Less mature oligonucleotide technologies, such as miRNAs and some novel gene targets, have not passed the established point and have not yielded products. This analysis shows that oligonucleotide product development has followed largely predictable patterns of innovation. While technology maturation alone does not ensure success, these data show that many oligonucleotide technologies are sufficiently mature to be considered part of the arsenal for therapeutic development. These results demonstrate the importance of technology assessment in strategic management of biomedical technologies. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Forecasting the Success of Implementing Sensors Advanced Manufacturing Technology

    OpenAIRE

    Cheng-Shih Su; Shu-Chen Hsu

    2014-01-01

    This paper is presented fuzzy preference relations approach to forecast the success of implementing sensors advanced manufacturing technology (AMT). In the manufacturing environment, performance measurement is based on different quantitative and qualitative factors. This study proposes an analytic hierarchical prediction model based on fuzzy preference relations to help the organizations become aware of the essential factors affecting the AMT implementation, forecasting the chance of successf...

  18. Cost uncertainty for different levels of technology maturity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DeMuth, S.F.; Franklin, A.L.

    1996-01-01

    It is difficult at best to apply a single methodology for estimating cost uncertainties related to technologies of differing maturity. While highly mature technologies may have significant performance and manufacturing cost data available, less well developed technologies may be defined in only conceptual terms. Regardless of the degree of technical maturity, often a cost estimate relating to application of the technology may be required to justify continued funding for development. Yet, a cost estimate without its associated uncertainty lacks the information required to assess the economic risk. For this reason, it is important for the developer to provide some type of uncertainty along with a cost estimate. This study demonstrates how different methodologies for estimating uncertainties can be applied to cost estimates for technologies of different maturities. For a less well developed technology an uncertainty analysis of the cost estimate can be based on a sensitivity analysis; whereas, an uncertainty analysis of the cost estimate for a well developed technology can be based on an error propagation technique from classical statistics. It was decided to demonstrate these uncertainty estimation techniques with (1) an investigation of the additional cost of remediation due to beyond baseline, nearly complete, waste heel retrieval from underground storage tanks (USTs) at Hanford; and (2) the cost related to the use of crystalline silico-titanate (CST) rather than the baseline CS100 ion exchange resin for cesium separation from UST waste at Hanford

  19. Comparison of State-Funded Technology Maturation Programs.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Warren, Drake [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hess, Marguerite Evelyn [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2016-12-01

    This study examines the structure and impact of state-funded technology maturation programs that leverage research institutions for economic development throughout the United States. The lessons learned and practices identified from previous experiences will inform Sandia National Laboratories' Government Relations and Technology Partnerships teams as they participate in near-term discussions about the proposed Technology Readiness Gross Receipts Tax Credit and Program, and continue to shape longer-term program and partnership opportunities. This Page Intentionally Left Blank

  20. Open Innovation and Technology Maturity Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-09-11

    INFOLOGIC Inc. All rights reserved. Innovation Management Model  Product: Technology-heavy (e.g: Airplane, iPod) OR Service-heavy (e.g: Starbucks ...System, eBay)  Process: Any critical business process to ensure the success of product (e.g: iTune for iPod, Marketing and Supply Chain Management...Integration and Voice of the Customer Voice of the Customer Integration M A T U R I T Y VALUE Radical Innovation Evolutionary Innovation INCREMENTAL

  1. MATURING ECRF TECHNOLOGY FOR PLASMA CONTROL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    CALLIS, R.W.; CARY, W.P.; CHU, S.; LOANE, J.L.; ELLIS, R.A.; FELCH, K.; GORELOV, Y.A.; GRUNLOH, H.J.; HOSEA, J.; KAJIWARA, K.; LOHR, J.; LUCE, T.C.; PEAVY, J.J.; PINSKER, R.I.; PONCE, D.; PRATER, R.; SHAPIRO, M.; TEMKIN, R.J.; TOOKER, J.F.

    2002-01-01

    OAK A271 MUTURING ECRF TECHNOLOGY FOR PLASMA CONTROL. Understanding of the physics of internal transport barriers (ITBs) is being furthered by analysis and comparisons of experimental data from many different tokamaks worldwide. An international database consisting of scalar and 2-D profile data for ITB plasmas is being developed to determine the requirements for the formation and sustainment of ITBs and to perform tests of theory-based transport models in an effort to improve the predictive capability of the models. Analysis using the database indicates that: (a) the power required to form ITBs decreases with increased negative magnetic shear of the target plasma, and: (b) the E x B flow shear rate is close to the linear growth rate of the ITG modes at the time of barrier formation when compared for several fusion devices. Tests of several transport models (JETTO, Weiland model) using the 2-D profile data indicate that there is only limited agreement between the model predictions and the experimental results for the range of plasma conditions examined for the different devices (DIII-D, JET, JT-60U). Gyrokinetic stability analysis (using the GKS code) of the ITB discharges from these devices indicates that the ITG/TEM growth rates decrease with increased negative magnetic shear and that the E x B shear rate is comparable to the linear growth rates at the location of the ITB

  2. Forecasting and Technology Management: Statistical Theory and Methodological Issues

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henning

    of directions and targets for a R and D project, monitoring of a given area by a public agency, and evaluation of the future competitive situation for a company. This paper gives a brief introduction to the field of technological forecasting especially in relation to the strategic planning process...

  3. Enabling Dedicated, Affordable Space Access Through Aggressive Technology Maturation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Jonathan E.; Kibbey, Timothy P.; Cobb, C. Brent; Harris, Lawanna L.

    2014-01-01

    A launch vehicle at the scale and price point which allows developers to take reasonable risks with high payoff propulsion and avionics hardware solutions does not exist today. Establishing this service provides a ride through the proverbial technology "valley of death" that lies between demonstration in laboratory and flight environments. NASA's NanoLaunch effort will provide the framework to mature both earth-to-orbit and on-orbit propulsion and avionics technologies while also providing affordable, dedicated access to low earth orbit for cubesat class payloads.

  4. Dielectric and Insulating Technology 2004 : Review & Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okamoto, Tatsuki

    This article reports the state-of-art of DEIS activites. DEIS activiteis are basically based on the activites of 8-10 investigation committees’ under DEIS committee. Recent DEIS activites are categlized into three functions in this article and remarkable activity or trend of each category is mentioned. Those are activities on insulation diagnosis (AI application and asset management), activities on new insulation technology for power tansmission (high Tc super conducting cable insulation and all solid sinulated substation), and activities on new insulating materials (Nanocomposite).

  5. Dielectric and Insulating Technology 2005 : Reviews & Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okamoto, Tatsuki

    This article reports the state-of-art of TC-DEI ( Technical Committee of Dielectrics and Electrical Insulation of IEEJ) activites. The activiteis are basically based on the activites of 8-10 investigation committees under TC-DEI. Recent activites were categorized into three functions in this article and remarkable activity or trend for each category is mentioned as was done in the article of 2003. Thoese are activities on asset management (AI application and insulation diagnosis), activities on new insulating and functional materials (Nano composite) and activities on new insulation technology for power tansmission (high Tc superconducting cable insulation).

  6. Dielectric and Insulating Technology 2006 : Review & Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okamoto, Tatsuki

    This article reports the state-of-art of TC-DEI ( Technical Committee of Dielectrics and Electrical Insulation of IEEJ) activites. The activiteis are basically based on the activites of 8-10 investigation committees under TC-DEI. Recent activites were categorized into three functions in this article and remarkable activity or trend for each category is mentioned as was seen in the articles of 2005. Those are activities on asset management (AI application and insulation diagnosis), activities on new insulating and functional materials (Nano composite) and activities on new insulation technology for power tansmission (high Tc superconducting cable insulation).

  7. Operational flash flood forecasting platform based on grid technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thierion, V.; Ayral, P.-A.; Angelini, V.; Sauvagnargues-Lesage, S.; Nativi, S.; Payrastre, O.

    2009-04-01

    Flash flood events of south of France such as the 8th and 9th September 2002 in the Grand Delta territory caused important economic and human damages. Further to this catastrophic hydrological situation, a reform of flood warning services have been initiated (set in 2006). Thus, this political reform has transformed the 52 existing flood warning services (SAC) in 22 flood forecasting services (SPC), in assigning them territories more hydrological consistent and new effective hydrological forecasting mission. Furthermore, national central service (SCHAPI) has been created to ease this transformation and support local services in their new objectives. New functioning requirements have been identified: - SPC and SCHAPI carry the responsibility to clearly disseminate to public organisms, civil protection actors and population, crucial hydrologic information to better anticipate potential dramatic flood event, - a new effective hydrological forecasting mission to these flood forecasting services seems essential particularly for the flash floods phenomenon. Thus, models improvement and optimization was one of the most critical requirements. Initially dedicated to support forecaster in their monitoring mission, thanks to measuring stations and rainfall radar images analysis, hydrological models have to become more efficient in their capacity to anticipate hydrological situation. Understanding natural phenomenon occuring during flash floods mainly leads present hydrological research. Rather than trying to explain such complex processes, the presented research try to manage the well-known need of computational power and data storage capacities of these services. Since few years, Grid technology appears as a technological revolution in high performance computing (HPC) allowing large-scale resource sharing, computational power using and supporting collaboration across networks. Nowadays, EGEE (Enabling Grids for E-science in Europe) project represents the most important

  8. An improved market penetration model for wind energy technology forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lund, P D [Helsinki Univ. of Technology, Espoo (Finland). Advanced Energy Systems

    1996-12-31

    An improved market penetration model with application to wind energy forecasting is presented. In the model, a technology diffusion model and manufacturing learning curve are combined. Based on a 85% progress ratio that was found for European wind manufactures and on wind market statistics, an additional wind power capacity of ca 4 GW is needed in Europe to reach a 30 % price reduction. A full breakthrough to low-cost utility bulk power markets could be achieved at a 24 GW level. (author)

  9. An improved market penetration model for wind energy technology forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lund, P.D.

    1995-01-01

    An improved market penetration model with application to wind energy forecasting is presented. In the model, a technology diffusion model and manufacturing learning curve are combined. Based on a 85% progress ratio that was found for European wind manufactures and on wind market statistics, an additional wind power capacity of ca 4 GW is needed in Europe to reach a 30 % price reduction. A full breakthrough to low-cost utility bulk power markets could be achieved at a 24 GW level. (author)

  10. An improved market penetration model for wind energy technology forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lund, P.D. [Helsinki Univ. of Technology, Espoo (Finland). Advanced Energy Systems

    1995-12-31

    An improved market penetration model with application to wind energy forecasting is presented. In the model, a technology diffusion model and manufacturing learning curve are combined. Based on a 85% progress ratio that was found for European wind manufactures and on wind market statistics, an additional wind power capacity of ca 4 GW is needed in Europe to reach a 30 % price reduction. A full breakthrough to low-cost utility bulk power markets could be achieved at a 24 GW level. (author)

  11. Technology Maturation in Preparation for the Cryogenic Propellant Storage and Transfer (CPST) Technology Demonstration Mission (TDM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Michael L.; Doherty, Michael P.; Moder, Jeffrey P.

    2014-01-01

    In support of its goal to find an innovative path for human space exploration, NASA embarked on the Cryogenic Propellant Storage and Transfer (CPST) Project, a Technology Demonstration Mission (TDM) to test and validate key cryogenic capabilities and technologies required for future exploration elements, opening up the architecture for large in-space cryogenic propulsion stages and propellant depots. Recognizing that key Cryogenic Fluid Management (CFM) technologies anticipated for on-orbit (flight) demonstration would benefit from additional maturation to a readiness level appropriate for infusion into the design of the flight demonstration, the NASA Headquarters Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD) authorized funding for a one-year technology maturation phase of the CPST project. The strategy, proposed by the CPST Project Manager, focused on maturation through modeling, concept studies, and ground tests of the storage and fluid transfer of CFM technology sub-elements and components that were lower than a Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of 5. A technology maturation plan (TMP) was subsequently approved which described: the CFM technologies selected for maturation, the ground testing approach to be used, quantified success criteria of the technologies, hardware and data deliverables, and a deliverable to provide an assessment of the technology readiness after completion of the test, study or modeling activity. The specific technologies selected were grouped into five major categories: thick multilayer insulation, tank applied active thermal control, cryogenic fluid transfer, propellant gauging, and analytical tool development. Based on the success of the technology maturation efforts, the CPST project was approved to proceed to flight system development.

  12. Analyses and Forecasting of Smart Grid Technological Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. V. Danilin

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: this paper analyzes and forecasts medium- to long-term dynamics of Smart Grid technology developments considering both patent activity and socio-economic (demand-side issues and requirements of economy and power system factors. Methods: for the analysis of Smart Grid patent data (IIP, USPTO, and WIPO patent databases used we apply syntactic semantic analysis of texts in natural languages and logistic curve-based method. We propose Exactus Patent system for intelligent full-text search and analysis of patents (results verified with Thomson Innovation and TotalPatent patent search systems. For interpretation of revealed dynamics and forecasting of future conditions we identify key long-term socio-economic factors drivers for Smart Grid development. Elements of C. Christensen (disruptive innovations and G. Dosi (technological trajectories theories were applied. Results: the study reveals a fast technological transformation within the Smart Grid domain due to the long-term socio-economic factors such as rise of renewables; energy efficiency and energy security issues; environmental constraints and shift of values; requirements for accelerated grid construction (in developing economies and grid modernization (in developed ones; ongoing economy-wide digitalization. Due to the limited economic effects of Smart Grid roll-outs (considering major requirements of economic agents and society and considering progressions of patent dynamics, authors forecasts technology stagnation (in terms of number of patents growth by the end of 2010-s as end of Gartner`s hype development stage. Conclusions and Relevance: a foreseen change in dynamics of Smart Grid technology development is interpreted as a manifestation of sinusoidal fluctuations in technology development for disruptive technologies (supported with OECD data. A longer cycle (in comparison with other disruptive technologies is interpreted as consequence of technology and industry specifics

  13. Forecasting the Success of Implementing Sensors Advanced Manufacturing Technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng-Shih Su

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper is presented fuzzy preference relations approach to forecast the success of implementing sensors advanced manufacturing technology (AMT. In the manufacturing environment, performance measurement is based on different quantitative and qualitative factors. This study proposes an analytic hierarchical prediction model based on fuzzy preference relations to help the organizations become aware of the essential factors affecting the AMT implementation, forecasting the chance of successful implementing sensors AMT, as well as identifying the actions necessary before implementing sensors AMT. Then predicted success/failure values are obtained to enable organizations to decide whether to initiate sensors AMT, inhibit adoption or take remedial actions to increase the possibility of successful sensors AMT initiatives. This proposed approach is demonstrated with a real case study involving six influential factors assessed by nine evaluators solicited from a semiconductor engineering incorporation located in Taiwan.

  14. Technology and demand forecasting for carbon capture and storage technology in South Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shin, Jungwoo; Lee, Chul-Yong; Kim, Hongbum

    2016-01-01

    Among the various alternatives available to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, carbon capture and storage (CCS) is considered to be a prospective technology that could both improve economic growth and meet GHG emission reduction targets. Despite the importance of CCS, however, studies of technology and demand forecasting for CCS are scarce. This study bridges this gap in the body of knowledge on this topic by forecasting CCS technology and demand based on an integrated model. For technology forecasting, a logistic model and patent network analysis are used to compare the competitiveness of CCS technology for selected countries. For demand forecasting, a competition diffusion model is adopted to consider competition among renewable energies and forecast demand. The results show that the number of patent applications for CCS technology will increase to 16,156 worldwide and to 4,790 in Korea by 2025. We also find that the United States has the most competitive CCS technology followed by Korea and France. Moreover, about 5 million tCO_2e of GHG will be reduced by 2040 if CCS technology is adopted in Korea after 2020. - Highlights: • Carbon capture and storage (CCS) can help mitigate climate change globally. • It can both improve economic growth and meet GHG emission reduction targets. • We forecast CCS technology and demand based on an integrated model. • The US has the most competitive CCS technology followed by Korea and France. • 5 million tCO_2e of GHG will be reduced by 2040 if CCS is adopted in Korea.

  15. Extravehicular Activity (EVA) Technology Development Status and Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chullen, Cinda; Westheimer, David T.

    2010-01-01

    Beginning in Fiscal Year (FY) 2011, Extravehicular activity (EVA) technology development became a technology foundational domain under a new program Enabling Technology Development and Demonstration. The goal of the EVA technology effort is to further develop technologies that will be used to demonstrate a robust EVA system that has application for a variety of future missions including microgravity and surface EVA. Overall the objectives will be reduce system mass, reduce consumables and maintenance, increase EVA hardware robustness and life, increase crew member efficiency and autonomy, and enable rapid vehicle egress and ingress. Over the past several years, NASA realized a tremendous increase in EVA system development as part of the Exploration Technology Development Program and the Constellation Program. The evident demand for efficient and reliable EVA technologies, particularly regenerable technologies was apparent under these former programs and will continue to be needed as future mission opportunities arise. The technological need for EVA in space has been realized over the last several decades by the Gemini, Apollo, Skylab, Space Shuttle, and the International Space Station (ISS) programs. EVAs were critical to the success of these programs. Now with the ISS extension to 2028 in conjunction with a current forecasted need of at least eight EVAs per year, the EVA technology life and limited availability of the EMUs will become a critical issue eventually. The current Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU) has vastly served EVA demands by performing critical operations to assemble the ISS and provide repairs of satellites such as the Hubble Space Telescope. However, as the life of ISS and the vision for future mission opportunities are realized, a new EVA systems capability could be an option for the future mission applications building off of the technology development over the last several years. Besides ISS, potential mission applications include EVAs for

  16. A Multi-scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamann, Hendrik F. [IBM, Yorktown Heights, NY (United States). Thomas J. Watson Research Center

    2017-05-31

    The goal of the project was the development and demonstration of a significantly improved solar forecasting technology (short: Watt-sun), which leverages new big data processing technologies and machine-learnt blending between different models and forecast systems. The technology aimed demonstrating major advances in accuracy as measured by existing and new metrics which themselves were developed as part of this project. Finally, the team worked with Independent System Operators (ISOs) and utilities to integrate the forecasts into their operations.

  17. Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC) Technology Maturation in Preparation for Flight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Wayne A.; Cornell, Peggy A.

    2012-01-01

    The Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC) is being developed by an integrated team of Sunpower and National Aeronautics and Space Administration s (NASA s) Glenn Research Center (GRC). The ASC development, funded by NASA s Science Mission Directorate, started as a technology development effort in 2003 and has since evolved through progressive convertor builds and successful testing to demonstrate high conversion efficiency, low mass, and capability to meet long-life Radioisotope Power System (RPS) requirements. The technology has been adopted by the Department of Energy and Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company s Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG), which has been selected for potential flight demonstration on Discovery 12. This paper provides an overview of the status of ASC development including the most recent ASC-E2 convertors that have been delivered to GRC and an introduction to the ASC-E3 and ASC flight convertors that Sunpower will build next. The paper also describes the technology maturation and support tasks being conducted at GRC to support ASC and ASRG development in the areas of convertor and generator extended operation, high-temperature materials, heater head life assessment, organics, nondestructive inspection, spring fatigue testing, and other reliability verification tasks.

  18. Past speculations of future health technologies: a description of technologies predicted in 15 forecasting studies published between 1986 and 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doos, Lucy; Packer, Claire; Ward, Derek; Simpson, Sue; Stevens, Andrew

    2017-07-31

    To describe and classify health technologies predicted in forecasting studies. A portrait describing health technologies predicted in 15 forecasting studies published between 1986 and 2010 that were identified in a previous systematic review. Health technologies are classified according to their type, purpose and clinical use; relating these to the original purpose and timing of the forecasting studies. All health-related technologies predicted in 15 forecasting studies identified in a previously published systematic review. Outcomes related to (1) each forecasting study including country, year, intention and forecasting methods used and (2) the predicted technologies including technology type, purpose, targeted clinical area and forecast timeframe. Of the 896 identified health-related technologies, 685 (76.5%) were health technologies with an explicit or implied health application and included in our study. Of these, 19.1% were diagnostic or imaging tests, 14.3% devices or biomaterials, 12.6% information technology systems, eHealth or mHealth and 12% drugs. The majority of the technologies were intended to treat or manage disease (38.1%) or diagnose or monitor disease (26.1%). The most frequent targeted clinical areas were infectious diseases followed by cancer, circulatory and nervous system disorders. The most frequent technology types were for: infectious diseases-prophylactic vaccines (45.8%), cancer-drugs (40%), circulatory disease-devices and biomaterials (26.3%), and diseases of the nervous system-equally devices and biomaterials (25%) and regenerative medicine (25%). The mean timeframe for forecasting was 11.6 years (range 0-33 years, median=10, SD=6.6). The forecasting timeframe significantly differed by technology type (p=0.002), the intent of the forecasting group (p<0.001) and the methods used (p<001). While description and classification of predicted health-related technologies is crucial in preparing healthcare systems for adopting new innovations

  19. Space power needs and forecasted technologies for the 1990s and beyond

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buden, D.; Albert, T.

    1987-01-01

    A new generation of reactors for electric power will be available for space missions to satisfy military and civilian needs in the 1990s and beyond. To ensure a useful product, nuclear power plant development must be cognizant of other space power technologies. Major advances in solar and chemical technologies need to be considered in establishing the goals of future nuclear power plants. In addition, the mission needs are evolving into new regimes. Civilian and military power needs are forecasted to exceed anything used in space to date. Technology trend forecasts have been mapped as a function of time for solar, nuclear, chemical, and storage systems to illustrate areas where each technology provides minimum mass. Other system characteristics may dominate the usefulness of a technology on a given mission. This paper will discuss some of these factors, as well as forecast future military and civilian power needs and the status of technologies for the 1990s and 2000s. 6 references

  20. Research on forecast technology of mine gas emission based on fuzzy data mining (FDM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu Chang-kai; Wang Yao-cai; Wang Jun-wei [CUMT, Xuzhou (China). School of Information and Electrical Engineering

    2004-07-01

    The safe production of coalmine can be further improved by forecasting the quantity of gas emission based on the real-time data and historical data which the gas monitoring system has saved. By making use of the advantages of data warehouse and data mining technology for processing large quantity of redundancy data, the method and its application of forecasting mine gas emission quantity based on FDM were studied. The constructing fuzzy resembling relation and clustering analysis were proposed, which the potential relationship inside the gas emission data may be found. The mode finds model and forecast model were presented, and the detailed approach to realize this forecast was also proposed, which have been applied to forecast the gas emission quantity efficiently.

  1. Green Propellant Infusion Mission Program Development and Technology Maturation

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLean, Christopher H.; Deininger, William D.; Joniatis, John; Aggarwal, Pravin K.; Spores, Ronald A.; Deans, Matthew; Yim, John T.; Bury, Kristen; Martinez, Jonathan; Cardiff, Eric H.; hide

    2014-01-01

    The NASA Space Technology Mission Directorate's (STMD) Green Propellant Infusion Mission (GPIM) Technology Demonstration Mission (TDM) is comprised of a cross-cutting team of domestic spacecraft propulsion and storable green propellant technology experts. This TDM is led by Ball Aerospace & Technologies Corp. (BATC), who will use their BCP- 100 spacecraft to carry a propulsion system payload consisting of one 22 N thruster for primary divert (DeltaV) maneuvers and four 1 N thrusters for attitude control, in a flight demonstration of the AF-M315E technology. The GPIM project has technology infusion team members from all three major market sectors: Industry, NASA, and the Department of Defense (DoD). The GPIM project team includes BATC, includes Aerojet Rocketdyne (AR), Air Force Research Laboratory, Aerospace Systems Directorate, Edwards AFB (AFRL), NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC), NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC), and NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). STMD programmatic and technology oversight is provided by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. The GPIM project shall fly an operational AF-M315E green propulsion subsystem on a Ball-built BCP-100 spacecraft.

  2. Maturing Pump Technology for EVA Applications in a Collaborative Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodgson, Edward; Dionne, Steven; Gervais, Edward; Anchondo, Ian

    2012-01-01

    The transition from low earth orbit Extravehicular Activity (EVA) for construction and maintenance activities to planetary surface EVA on asteroids, moons, and, ultimately, Mars demands a new spacesuit system. NASA's development of that system has resulted in dramatically different pumping requirements from those in the current spacesuit system. Hamilton Sundstrand, Cascon, and NASA are collaborating to develop and mature a pump that will reliably meet those new requirements in space environments and within the design constraints imposed by spacesuit system integration. That collaboration, which began in the NASA purchase of a pump prototype for test evaluation, is now entering a new phase of development. A second generation pump reflecting the lessons learned in NASA's testing of the original prototype will be developed under Hamilton Sundstrand internal research funding and ultimately tested in an integrated Advanced Portable Life Support System (APLSS) in NASA laboratories at the Johnson Space Center. This partnership is providing benefit to both industry and NASA by supplying a custom component for EVA integrated testing at no cost to the government while providing test data for industry that would otherwise be difficult or impossible to duplicate in industry laboratories. This paper discusses the evolving collaborative process, component requirements and design development based on early NASA test experience, component stand alone test results, and near term plans for integrated testing at JSCs.

  3. New Technology Trends in Education: Seven Years of Forecasts and Convergence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Sergio; Diaz, Gabriel; Sancristobal, Elio; Gil, Rosario; Castro, Manuel; Peire, Juan

    2011-01-01

    Each year since 2004, a new Horizon Report has been released. Each edition attempts to forecast the most promising technologies likely to impact on education along three horizons: the short term (the year of the report), the mid-term (the next 2 years) and the long term (the next 4 years). This paper analyzes the evolution of technology trends…

  4. PATTERNS OF SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT AND THEIR USE IN FORECASTING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. I. Komkov

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In article laws of scientifically-technological development are considered. Their number concern traditional, base and new, formed. Possibilities and ways of the account of the listed laws are shown at forecasting of prospects of scientifically-technological development.

  5. Patterns of Innovation in Alzheimer's Disease Drug Development: A Strategic Assessment Based on Technological Maturity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beierlein, Jennifer M; McNamee, Laura M; Walsh, Michael J; Ledley, Fred D

    2015-08-01

    This article examines the current status of translational science for Alzheimer's disease (AD) drug discovery by using an analytical model of technology maturation. Previous studies using this model have demonstrated that nascent scientific insights and inventions generate few successful leads or new products until achieving a requisite level of maturity. This article assessed whether recent failures and successes in AD research follow patterns of innovation observed in other sectors. The bibliometric-based Technology Innovation Maturation Evaluation model was used to quantify the characteristic S-curve of growth for AD-related technologies, including acetylcholinesterase, N-methyl-d-aspartate (NMDA) receptors, B-amyloid, amyloid precursor protein, presenilin, amyloid precursor protein secretases, apolipoprotein E4, and transactive response DNA binding protein 43 kDa (TDP-43). This model quantifies the accumulation of knowledge as a metric for technological maturity, and it identifies the point of initiation of an exponential growth stage and the point at which growth slows as the technology is established. In contrast to the long-established acetylcholinesterase and NMDA receptor technologies, we found that amyloid-related technologies reached the established point only after 2000, and that the more recent technologies (eg, TDP-43) have not yet approached this point. The first approvals for new molecular entities targeting acetylcholinesterase and the NMDA receptor occurred an average of 22 years after the respective technologies were established, with only memantine (which was phenotypically discovered) entering clinical trials before this point. In contrast, the 6 lead compounds targeting the formation of amyloid plaques that failed in Phase III trials between 2009 and 2014 all entered clinical trials before the respective target technologies were established. This analysis suggests that AD drug discovery has followed a predictable pattern of innovation in which

  6. Industrial Maturity of FR Fuel Cycle Processes and Technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bruezière, Jérôme

    2013-01-01

    FR fuel cycle processes and technologies have already been proven industrially for Oxide Fuel, and to a lesser extent for metal fuel. In addition, both used oxide fuel reprocessing and fresh oxide fuel manufacturing benefit from similar industrial experience currently deployed for LWR. Alternative fuel type will have to generate very significant benefit in reactor ( safety, cost, … ) to justify corresponding development and industrialization costs

  7. Forecasting and observability: critical technologies for system operations with high PV penetration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alet, Pierre-Jean; Efthymiou, Venizelos; Graditi, Giorgio

    2016-01-01

    – Photovoltaics (ETIP PV) reviews the different use cases for these technologies, their current status, and the need for future developments. Power system operations require a real-time view of PV production for managing power reserves and for feeding shortterm forecasts. They also require forecasts on all......Forecasting and monitoring technologies for photovoltaics are required on different spatial and temporal scales by multiple actors, from the owners of PV systems to transmission system operators. In this paper the Grid integration working group of the European Technology and Innovation Platform...... timescales from the short (for dispatching purposes), where statistical models work best, to the very long (for infrastructure planning), where physics-based models are more accurate. Power system regulations are driving the development of these techniques. This application also provides a good basis...

  8. Modeling timelines for translational science in cancer; the impact of technological maturation

    OpenAIRE

    McNamee, Laura M.; Ledley, Fred D.

    2017-01-01

    This work examines translational science in cancer based on theories of innovation that posit a relationship between the maturation of technologies and their capacity to generate successful products. We examined the growth of technologies associated with 138 anticancer drugs using an analytical model that identifies the point of initiation of exponential growth and the point at which growth slows as the technology becomes established. Approval of targeted and biological products corresponded ...

  9. Information Technology Governance Maturity: Examining the Moderating Effect on the Relationship between Strategic Alignment Maturity and Information Technology Effectiveness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kouakou, Claude N.

    2013-01-01

    The positive contribution of information technology (IT) in an organization is undeniable. Most organizations take advantage of that contributive benefit by aligning their business strategy with their IT strategy. This alignment is known as IT-business strategic alignment. Strategic alignment involves making the best possible use of corporate IT…

  10. Technology Maturity for the Habitable-zone Exoplanet Imaging Mission (HabEx) Concept

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan, Rhonda; Warfield, Keith R.; Stahl, H. Philip; Mennesson, Bertrand; Nikzad, Shouleh; nissen, joel; Balasubramanian, Kunjithapatham; Krist, John; Mawet, Dimitri; Stapelfeldt, Karl; warwick, Steve

    2018-01-01

    HabEx Architecture A is a 4m unobscured telescope optimized for direct imaging and spectroscopy of potentially habitable exoplanets, and also enables a wide range of general astrophysics science. The exoplanet detection and characterization drives the enabling core technologies. A hybrid starlight suppression approach of a starshade and coronagraph diversifies technology maturation risk. In this poster we assess these exoplanet-driven technologies, including elements of coronagraphs, starshades, mirrors, jitter mitigation, wavefront control, and detectors. By utilizing high technology readiness solutions where feasible, and identifying required technology development that can begin early, HabEx will be well positioned for assessment by the community in 2020 Astrophysics Decadal Survey.

  11. Technological forecasting a long time of the scientific-technological development of the nuclear fusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schettert, Plinio G.; Oliveira, Wagner S.; Aquino, Afonso R.

    2009-01-01

    With base in the introduction in long time of the nuclear fusion inside of a system of viable energy, taking in consideration economic factors, would imply on investment in a long period. The objective of this project utilizing the method of the Delphi technique is the technological forecast a long time of the scientific-technological development of the nuclear fusion and its impact. This research project will be carried through different stages of improvement of variables. A questionnaire based on information and analysis of the literature validated for specialists in nuclear fusion becomes this project a tool in the elaboration future of a database contends variables on the theme nuclear fusion and its perspectives. The database will be composed for the answers and suggestions obtained, with exploratory and extrapolatory elements, on the theme a great number of specialists involving in the nuclear fusion area. The database is analyzed for the configuration of variables that represent elements as scientific-technological factors, economical, political, social and environmental among others. As final result of the research with the Delphi technique, different scenes obtained with the variables will be indicated by convergent factors or not on the approached perspectives. The analysis of the data will be possible through of improve of statistical analysis tools. This is the first analyzes of the answers. The questionnaire was validated with nuclear fusion specialists from the Institute of Physics of the University of Sao Paulo in Brazil and the Center of Nuclear Fusion of the Technical University of Lisbon in Portugal. (author)

  12. An Interval Estimation Method of Patent Keyword Data for Sustainable Technology Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daiho Uhm

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Technology forecasting (TF is forecasting the future state of a technology. It is exciting to know the future of technologies, because technology changes the way we live and enhances the quality of our lives. In particular, TF is an important area in the management of technology (MOT for R&D strategy and new product development. Consequently, there are many studies on TF. Patent analysis is one method of TF because patents contain substantial information regarding developed technology. The conventional methods of patent analysis are based on quantitative approaches such as statistics and machine learning. The most traditional TF methods based on patent analysis have a common problem. It is the sparsity of patent keyword data structured from collected patent documents. After preprocessing with text mining techniques, most frequencies of technological keywords in patent data have values of zero. This problem creates a disadvantage for the performance of TF, and we have trouble analyzing patent keyword data. To solve this problem, we propose an interval estimation method (IEM. Using an adjusted Wald confidence interval called the Agresti–Coull confidence interval, we construct our IEM for efficient TF. In addition, we apply the proposed method to forecast the technology of an innovative company. To show how our work can be applied in the real domain, we conduct a case study using Apple technology.

  13. Past speculations of the future: a review of the methods used for forecasting emerging health technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doos, Lucy; Packer, Claire; Ward, Derek; Simpson, Sue; Stevens, Andrew

    2016-03-10

    Forecasting can support rational decision-making around the introduction and use of emerging health technologies and prevent investment in technologies that have limited long-term potential. However, forecasting methods need to be credible. We performed a systematic search to identify the methods used in forecasting studies to predict future health technologies within a 3-20-year timeframe. Identification and retrospective assessment of such methods potentially offer a route to more reliable prediction. Systematic search of the literature to identify studies reported on methods of forecasting in healthcare. People are not needed in this study. The authors searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsychINFO and grey literature sources, and included articles published in English that reported their methods and a list of identified technologies. Studies reporting methods used to predict future health technologies within a 3-20-year timeframe with an identified list of individual healthcare technologies. Commercially sponsored reviews, long-term futurology studies (with over 20-year timeframes) and speculative editorials were excluded. 15 studies met our inclusion criteria. Our results showed that the majority of studies (13/15) consulted experts either alone or in combination with other methods such as literature searching. Only 2 studies used more complex forecasting tools such as scenario building. The methodological fundamentals of formal 3-20-year prediction are consistent but vary in details. Further research needs to be conducted to ascertain if the predictions made were accurate and whether accuracy varies by the methods used or by the types of technologies identified. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  14. Cryogenic Propellant Storage and Transfer (CPST) Technology Maturation: Establishing a Foundation for a Technology Demonstration Mission (TDM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doherty, Michael P.; Meyer, Michael L.; Motil, Susan M.; Ginty, Carol A.

    2014-01-01

    As part of U.S. National Space Policy, NASA is seeking an innovative path for human space exploration, which strengthens the capability to extend human and robotic presence throughout the solar system. NASA is laying the groundwork to enable humans to safely reach multiple potential destinations, including asteroids, Lagrange points, the Moon and Mars. In support of this, NASA is embarking on the Technology Demonstration Mission Cryogenic Propellant Storage and Transfer (TDM CPST) Project to test and validate key cryogenic capabilities and technologies required for future exploration elements, opening up the architecture for large cryogenic propulsion stages (CPS) and propellant depots. The TDM CPST project will provide an on-orbit demonstration of the capability to store, transfer, and measure cryogenic propellants for a duration which is relevant to enable long term human space exploration missions beyond low Earth orbit (LEO). Recognizing that key cryogenic fluid management technologies anticipated for on-orbit (flight) demonstration needed to be matured to a readiness level appropriate for infusion into the design of the flight demonstration, the NASA Headquarters Space Technology Mission Directorate authorized funding for a one-year (FY12) ground based technology maturation program. The strategy, proposed by the CPST Project Manager, focused on maturation through modeling, studies, and ground tests of the storage and fluid transfer Cryogenic Fluid Management (CFM) technology sub-elements and components that were not already at a Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of 5. A technology maturation plan (TMP) was subsequently approved which described: the CFM technologies selected for maturation, the ground testing approach to be used, quantified success criteria of the technologies, hardware and data deliverables, and a deliverable to provide an assessment of the technology readiness after completion of the test, study or modeling activity. This paper will present

  15. Approaches, techniques, and information technology systems in the restaurants and foodservice industry: a qualitative study in sales forecasting.

    OpenAIRE

    Green, Yvette N. J.; Weaver, Pamela A.

    2008-01-01

    This is a study of the approaches, techniques, and information technology systems utilized for restaurant sales forecasting in the full-service restaurant segment. Companies were examined using a qualitative research methods design and long interviews to gather information on approaches, techniques, and technology systems utilized in the sales forecasting process. The results of the interviews were presented along with ensuing discussion.

  16. Post LANDSAT D Advanced Concept Evaluation (PLACE). [with emphasis on mission planning, technological forecasting, and user requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    1977-01-01

    An outline is given of the mission objectives and requirements, system elements, system concepts, technology requirements and forecasting, and priority analysis for LANDSAT D. User requirements and mission analysis and technological forecasting are emphasized. Mission areas considered include agriculture, range management, forestry, geology, land use, water resources, environmental quality, and disaster assessment.

  17. A review on technology maturity of small scale energy storage technologies★

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nguyen Thu-Trang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper reviews the current status of energy storage technologies which have the higher potential to be applied in small scale energy systems. Small scale energy systems can be categorized as ones that are able to supply energy in various forms for a building, or a small area, or a limited community, or an enterprise; typically, they are end-user systems. Energy storage technologies are classified based on their form of energy stored. A two-step evaluation is proposed for selecting suitable storage technologies for small scale energy systems, including identifying possible technical options, and addressing techno-economic aspects. Firstly, a review on energy storage technologies at small scale level is carried out. Secondly, an assessment of technology readiness level (TRL is conducted. The TRLs are ranked according to information gathered from literature review. Levels of market maturity of the technologies are addressed by taking into account their market development stages through reviewing published materials. The TRLs and the levels of market maturity are then combined into a technology maturity curve. Additionally, market driving factors are identified by using different stages in product life cycle. The results indicate that lead-acid, micro pumped hydro storage, NaS battery, NiCd battery, flywheel, NaNiCl battery, Li-ion battery, and sensible thermal storage are the most mature technologies for small scale energy systems. In the near future, hydrogen fuel cells, thermal storages using phase change materials and thermochemical materials are expected to become more popular in the energy storage market.

  18. Application research for 4D technology in flood forecasting and evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ziwei; Liu, Yutong; Cao, Hongjie

    1998-08-01

    In order to monitor the region which disaster flood happened frequently in China, satisfy the great need of province governments for high accuracy monitoring and evaluated data for disaster and improve the efficiency for repelling disaster, under the Ninth Five-year National Key Technologies Programme, the method was researched for flood forecasting and evaluation using satellite and aerial remoted sensed image and land monitor data. The effective and practicable flood forecasting and evaluation system was established and DongTing Lake was selected as the test site. Modern Digital photogrammetry, remote sensing and GIS technology was used in this system, the disastrous flood could be forecasted and loss can be evaluated base on '4D' (DEM -- Digital Elevation Model, DOQ -- Digital OrthophotoQuads, DRG -- Digital Raster Graph, DTI -- Digital Thematic Information) disaster background database. The technology of gathering and establishing method for '4D' disaster environment background database, application technology for flood forecasting and evaluation based on '4D' background data and experimental results for DongTing Lake test site were introduced in detail in this paper.

  19. Technology Alignment and Portfolio Prioritization (TAPP): Advanced Methods in Strategic Analysis, Technology Forecasting and Long Term Planning for Human Exploration and Operations, Advanced Exploration Systems and Advanced Concepts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funaro, Gregory V.; Alexander, Reginald A.

    2015-01-01

    The Advanced Concepts Office (ACO) at NASA, Marshall Space Flight Center is expanding its current technology assessment methodologies. ACO is developing a framework called TAPP that uses a variety of methods, such as association mining and rule learning from data mining, structure development using a Technological Innovation System (TIS), and social network modeling to measure structural relationships. The role of ACO is to 1) produce a broad spectrum of ideas and alternatives for a variety of NASA's missions, 2) determine mission architecture feasibility and appropriateness to NASA's strategic plans, and 3) define a project in enough detail to establish an initial baseline capable of meeting mission objectives ACO's role supports the decision­-making process associated with the maturation of concepts for traveling through, living in, and understanding space. ACO performs concept studies and technology assessments to determine the degree of alignment between mission objectives and new technologies. The first step in technology assessment is to identify the current technology maturity in terms of a technology readiness level (TRL). The second step is to determine the difficulty associated with advancing a technology from one state to the next state. NASA has used TRLs since 1970 and ACO formalized them in 1995. The DoD, ESA, Oil & Gas, and DoE have adopted TRLs as a means to assess technology maturity. However, "with the emergence of more complex systems and system of systems, it has been increasingly recognized that TRL assessments have limitations, especially when considering [the] integration of complex systems." When performing the second step in a technology assessment, NASA requires that an Advancement Degree of Difficulty (AD2) method be utilized. NASA has used and developed or used a variety of methods to perform this step: Expert Opinion or Delphi Approach, Value Engineering or Value Stream, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Technique for the Order of

  20. Improving the Army’s Next Effort in Technology Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-01

    DC: Center for Technology and National Security Policy, National Defense University, August 2005). 6 James D. Watson and Francis Crick , “A...occurred within the life sciences disciplines. Most notably this occurred early on in 1953 via the discovery of DNA’s double helix structure by Watson and... Crick .6 A confluence of organic chemistry, physics, genomics, and information technology further provided the ability to amplify and replicate the

  1. ISBE continuous technology forecasting reports – report 2.

    OpenAIRE

    Ettrich, Rüdiger; Thanos, Dimitris; Butcher, Sarah; Kotrcova, Marcela; Stanford, Natalie; Goble, Carole; Oberthuer, Angela; Hoefer, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    This second continuous technology report is the outcome of the joint effort of the WP9 members and the Technology and Science Watch committee appointed by the steering committee appointed in April 2014. While the first report was designed to serve as a guide for building up the infrastructure, this second report takes into account the recommendations of the SAB that sees the possible role of the future infrastructure in fostering systems biology research by using existing experimental facilit...

  2. NASA Environmental Control and Life Support Technology Development and Maturation for Exploration: 2015 to 2016 Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Walter F.; Gatens, Robyn L.; Anderson, Molly S.; Broyan, James L.; MaCatangay, Ariel V.; Shull, Sarah A.; Perry, Jay L.; Toomarian, Nikzad

    2016-01-01

    Over the last year, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has continued to refine the understanding and prioritization of technology gaps that must be closed in order to achieve Evolvable Mars Campaign objectives and near term objectives in the cislunar proving ground. These efforts are reflected in updates to the technical area roadmaps released by NASA in 2015 and have guided technology development and maturation tasks that have been sponsored by various programs. This paper provides an overview of the refined Environmental Control and Life Support (ECLS) strategic planning, as well as a synopsis of key technology and maturation project tasks that occurred in 2014 and early 2015 to support the strategic needs. Plans for the remainder of 2015 and subsequent years are also described.

  3. Technology Maturation Plan For Aluminum Removal And Sodium Hydroxide Regeneration From Hanford Waste By Lithium Hydrotalcite Precipitation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sams, T.L.; Guillot, S.

    2011-01-01

    This Technology Maturation Plan schedules the development process that will bring the Lithium Hydrotalcite waste pretreatment process from its current estimated Technology Readiness Level of 3, to a level of 6. This maturation approach involves chemical and engineering research and development work, from laboratory scale to pilot scale testing, to incrementally make the process progress towards its integration in a fully qualified industrial system.

  4. Use of computer technologies in physical education of women of the first mature age

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julia Tomilina

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: the improvement of process of physical education of women of the first mature age by means of Pilates with use of information technologies. Material & Methods: the experience of development and deployment of computer technologies in the process of physical education of women of mature age was systematized by means of the analysis of scientific and methodical and special literature and the best pedagogical and coach's practices, which is presented in mass media. The ways of application of computer programs were revealed, and the computer program ‘’Pilates’’ was developed by means of programming in the system Visual Basic. Results: the computer program ‘’Pilates’’, which consists of directory, settlement and recreational blocks, is offered for the purpose of improvement of the process of physical education of women of the first mature age by means of Pilates and increase in their motivation to classes by physical exercises. Conclusions: it is revealed that application of the computer programs has the positive effect in practice of physical education of women of the first mature age. The computer program ‘’Pilates’’ is submitted.

  5. When a mature technology company pivots: A case study of Logitech

    OpenAIRE

    Anderson Darrell; Daniel Johnson

    2016-01-01

    Life cycle theory has been shown to be an important explanation of the relationship between sales and stock prices. This study explores how the technology company Logitech attempted a transition from a mature life-cycle company in computer peripherals to a growth company in the music, tablet, and gaming industries. We show that stock price correlates with accounting performance differently across the company’s life cycle.

  6. Applying the Repertory Grid Method for Technology Forecasting: Civil Unmanned Aviation Systems for Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eimecke Jörgen

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Multistage expert surveys like the Delphi method are proven concepts for technology forecasting that enable the prediction of content-related and temporal development in fields of innovation (e.g., [1, 2]. Advantages of these qualitative multistage methods are a simple and easy to understand concept while still delivering valid results [3]. Nevertheless, the literature also points out certain disadvantages especially in large-scale technology forecasts in particularly abstract fields of innovation [4]. The proposed approach highlights the usefulness of the repertory grid method as an alternative for technology forecasting and as a first step for preference measurement. The basic approach from Baier and Kohler [5] is modified in-so-far that an online survey reduces the cognitive burden for the experts and simplifies the data collection process. Advantages over alternative approaches through its simple structure and through combining qualitative and quantitative methods are shown and an adaption on an actual field of innovation – civil drones in Germany – is done. The measurement of a common terminology for all experts minimizes misunderstandings during the interview and the achievement of an inter-individual comparable level of abstraction is forced by the laddering technique [6] during the interview.

  7. Technological developments in real-time operational hydrologic forecasting in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudlow, Michael D.

    1988-09-01

    The hydrologic forecasting service of the United States spans applications and scales ranging from those associated with the issuance of flood and flash warnings to those pertaining to seasonal water supply forecasts. New technological developments (underway in or planned by the National Weather Service (NWS) in support of the Hydrologic Program) are carried out as combined efforts by NWS headquarters and field personnel in cooperation with other organizations. These developments fall into two categories: hardware and software systems technology, and hydrometeorological analysis and prediction technology. Research, development, and operational implementation in progress in both of these areas are discussed. Cornerstones of an overall NWS modernization effort include implementation of state-of-the-art data acquisition systems (including the Next Generation Weather Radar) and communications and computer processing systems. The NWS Hydrologic Service will capitalize on these systems and will incorporate results from specific hydrologic projects including collection and processing of multivariate data sets, conceptual hydrologic modeling systems, integrated hydrologic modeling systems with meteorological interfaces and automatic updating of model states, and extended streamflow prediction techniques. The salient aspects of ongoing work in these areas are highlighted in this paper, providing some perspective on the future U.S. hydrologic forecasting service and its transitional period into the 1990s.

  8. The Need for Technology Maturity of Any Advanced Capability to Achieve Better Life Cycle Cost (LCC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, John W.; Levack, Daniel J. H.; Rhodes, Russel E.; Chen, Timothy T.

    2009-01-01

    Programs such as space transportation systems are developed and deployed only rarely, and they have long development schedules and large development and life cycle costs (LCC). They have not historically had their LCC predicted well and have only had an effort to control the DDT&E phase of the programs. One of the factors driving the predictability, and thus control, of the LCC of a program is the maturity of the technologies incorporated in the program. If the technologies incorporated are less mature (as measured by their Technology Readiness Level - TRL), then the LCC not only increases but the degree of increase is difficult to predict. Consequently, new programs avoid incorporating technologies unless they are quite mature, generally TRL greater than or equal to 7 (system prototype demonstrated in a space environment) to allow better predictability of the DDT&E phase costs unless there is no alternative. On the other hand, technology development programs rarely develop technologies beyond TRL 6 (system/subsystem model or prototype demonstrated in a relevant environment). Currently the lack of development funds beyond TRL 6 and the major funding required for full scale development leave little or no funding available to prototype TRL 6 concepts so that hardware would be in the ready mode for safe, reliable and cost effective incorporation. The net effect is that each new program either incorporates little new technology or has longer development schedules and costs, and higher LCC, than planned. This paper presents methods to ensure that advanced technologies are incorporated into future programs while providing a greater accuracy of predicting their LCC. One method is having a dedicated organization to develop X-series vehicles or separate prototypes carried on other vehicles. The question of whether such an organization should be independent of NASA and/or have an independent funding source is discussed. Other methods are also discussed. How to make the

  9. Modelling phenolic and technological maturities of grapes by means of the multivariate relation between organoleptic and physicochemical properties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meléndez, E; Ortiz, M C; Sarabia, L A; Íñiguez, M; Puras, P

    2013-01-25

    The ripeness of grapes at the harvest time is one of the most important parameters for obtaining high quality red wines. Traditionally the decision of harvesting is to be taken only after analysing sugar concentration, titratable acidity and pH of the grape juice (technological maturity). However, these parameters only provide information about the pulp ripeness and overlook the real degree of skins and seeds maturities (phenolic maturity). Both maturities, technological and phenolic, are not simultaneously reached, on the contrary they tend to separate depending on several factors: grape variety, cultivar, adverse weather conditions, soil, water availability and cultural practices. Besides, this divergence is increasing as a consequence of the climate change (larger quantities of CO(2), less rain, and higher temperatures). 247 samples collected in vineyards representative of the qualified designation of origin Rioja from 2007 to 2011 have been analysed. Samples contain the four grape varieties usual in the elaboration of Rioja wines ('tempranillo', 'garnacha', 'mazuelo' and 'graciano'). The present study is the first systematic investigation on the maturity of grapes that includes the organoleptic evaluation of the degree of grapes maturity (sugars/acidity maturity, aromatic maturity of the pulp, aromatic maturity of the skins and tannins maturity) together with the values of the physicochemical parameters (probable alcohol degree, total acidity, pH, malic acid, K, total index polyphenolics, anthocyans, absorbances at 420, 520 and 620 nm, colour index and tartaric acid) determined over the same samples. A varimax rotation of the latent variables of a PLS model between the physicochemical variables and the mean of four sensory variables allows identifying both maturities. Besides, the position of the samples in the first plane defines the effect that the different factors exert on both phenolic and technological maturities. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All

  10. Production Costs of Alternative Transportation Fuels. Influence of Crude Oil Price and Technology Maturity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cazzola, Pierpaolo; Morrison, Geoff; Kaneko, Hiroyuki; Cuenot, Francois; Ghandi, Abbas; Fulton, Lewis

    2013-07-01

    This study examines the production costs of a range of transport fuels and energy carriers under varying crude oil price assumptions and technology market maturation levels. An engineering ''bottom-up'' approach is used to estimate the effect of the input cost of oil and of various technological assumptions on the finished price of these fuels. In total, the production costs of 20 fuels are examined for crude oil prices between USD 60 and USD 150 per barrel. Some fuel pathways can be competitive with oil as their production, transport and storage technology matures, and as oil price increases. Rising oil prices will offer new opportunities to switch to alternative fuels for transport, to diversify the energy mix of the transport sector, and to reduce the exposure of the whole system to price volatility and potential distuption of supply. In a time of uncertainty about the leading vehicle technology to decarbonize the transport sector, looking at the fuel cost brings key information to be considered to keep mobility affordable yet sustainable.

  11. A formulation of multidimensional growth models for the assessment and forecast of technology attributes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danner, Travis W.

    Developing technology systems requires all manner of investment---engineering talent, prototypes, test facilities, and more. Even for simple design problems the investment can be substantial; for complex technology systems, the development costs can be staggering. The profitability of a corporation in a technology-driven industry is crucially dependent on maximizing the effectiveness of research and development investment. Decision-makers charged with allocation of this investment are forced to choose between the further evolution of existing technologies and the pursuit of revolutionary technologies. At risk on the one hand is excessive investment in an evolutionary technology which has only limited availability for further improvement. On the other hand, the pursuit of a revolutionary technology may mean abandoning momentum and the potential for substantial evolutionary improvement resulting from the years of accumulated knowledge. The informed answer to this question, evolutionary or revolutionary, requires knowledge of the expected rate of improvement and the potential a technology offers for further improvement. This research is dedicated to formulating the assessment and forecasting tools necessary to acquire this knowledge. The same physical laws and principles that enable the development and improvement of specific technologies also limit the ultimate capability of those technologies. Researchers have long used this concept as the foundation for modeling technological advancement through extrapolation by analogy to biological growth models. These models are employed to depict technology development as it asymptotically approaches limits established by the fundamental principles on which the technological approach is based. This has proven an effective and accurate approach to modeling and forecasting simple single-attribute technologies. With increased system complexity and the introduction of multiple system objectives, however, the usefulness of this

  12. The inadequacy between the photovoltaic subsidy mode and its technological maturity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Finon, D.

    2008-12-01

    The author criticizes the current French program which aims at developing the photovoltaic (PV) sector through the development of highly subsidized markets. He states that the high purchase tariff is not the right instrument with respect to the PV technology development stage, and that it would be better to strengthen the R and D effort, notably in the thin-layer sector. Secondly, he criticizes the French approach for its too long tariff commitment, the absence of decreasing purchase tariff over 20 years, the useless addition of other aids (tax credits, VAT lowering, etc.), the absence of tariff decrease for new installations, the absence of distinction between variously mature technologies. Finally, he states that this programme will not reach the objective of building up a French photovoltaic sector because of the global competition context. According to him, an ambitious programme of subsidies for the R and D and some targeted technologies, and in favour of French manufacturers would be a better solution

  13. Can Entrepreneurial Thinking Help Innovation in Established Mature Technology Corporations? An Exploratory Study in a Power Sector Multinational Firm

    OpenAIRE

    Weber, Thomas Karl-Heinz

    2012-01-01

    Just like nature, also technologies and industries, products and companies go through life cycles -- from 'birth' through maturity to 'death'. Innovativeness gives birth to new technologies and products, and innovation is written on the (business) storybook of many entrepreneurial undertakings and ventures. Those again appear habitually as starting or turning points in company and industry pedigrees. Further down the road, companies achieve maturity by managing consistently production and del...

  14. Load forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mak, H.

    1995-01-01

    Slides used in a presentation at The Power of Change Conference in Vancouver, BC in April 1995 about the changing needs for load forecasting were presented. Technological innovations and population increase were said to be the prime driving forces behind the changing needs in load forecasting. Structural changes, market place changes, electricity supply planning changes, and changes in planning objectives were other factors discussed. It was concluded that load forecasting was a form of information gathering, that provided important market intelligence

  15. Technology of making healthy and correction of build of men of the first mature age

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stroganov S.V.

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Directions of search of ways of making healthy of population of mature age are considered. In an experiment 30 men took part 21-35 years. The men of experimental group conducted training on the basis of 4th of the monthly program of correction and making healthy. There was statistically meaningful divergence in the capacity of men of experimental group by comparison to the men of control group. Also in the subjective estimation of own build, feel for a day, at the end of workweek and after training. Employment on the developed technology induced the men of experimental group a greater measure to give up harmful habits.

  16. Translational science by public biotechnology companies in the IPO "class of 2000": the impact of technological maturity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNamee, Laura; Ledley, Fred

    2013-01-01

    The biotechnology industry plays a central role in the translation of nascent biomedical science into both products that offer material health benefits and creating capital growth. This study examines the relationship between the maturity of technologies in a characteristic life cycle and value creation by biotechnology companies. We examined the core technology, product development pipelines, and capitalization for a cohort of biotechnology companies that completed an IPO in 2000. Each of these companies was well financed and had core technologies on the leading edge of biological science. We found that companies with the least mature technologies had significantly higher valuations at IPO, but failed to develop products based on these technologies over the ensuing decade, and created less capital growth than companies with more mature technologies at IPO. The observation that this cohort of recently public biotechnology companies was not effective in creating value from nascent science suggests the need for new, evidence-based business strategies for translational science.

  17. Innovative activity of high-technology companies as assessment and forecasting object

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. E. Sklyarov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Innovation activities, as well as innovations, are closely related meanings, and like many others economical definitions, have a broad range of meanings. Main characteristics and attributes of innovation involves new or significantly improved product, that’s being used, or in other words, found its application, and innovative activities – activities focused on realization of innovations. In this article, innovations are mainly considered in terms of high-technology production, evidence from Russian space industry. There are 5 basic stages of lifecycle of innovative project in considered industry: initiation, development, realization, expansion, consumption. Practically, third or fourth, or even both of these stages, often missing because there is no need of them. R&D activities, or even further serial production, based on previous developments, is an innovation activity, because these activities are stages of innovative projects lifecycle itself. Then it seems legit, to draw a conclusion, that in terms of high-technology production, company’s primary activity equals innovative activity. Basic characteristics of innovative activity of high-technology companies as assessment and forecasting object involves high level of uncertainty at every stage of projects lifecycle, high dependency on funding level of this activity, and high level and erratic structure of risk. All the above mentioned, means that assessment and forecasting of innovative activity of high-technology companies, needs development of its own methodological tools for each industry.

  18. A patent survey case: how could technological forecasting help cosmetic chemists with product innovation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domicio Da Silva Souza, Ivan; Juliana Pinheiro, Bárbara; Passarini Takahashi, Vania

    2012-01-01

    Patents represent a free and open source of data for studying innovation and forecasting technological trends. Thus, we suggest that new discussions about the role of patent information are needed. To illustrate the relevance of this issue, we performed a survey of patents involving skin care products, which were granted by the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) between 2006 and 2010, to identify opportunities for innovation and technological trends. We quantified the use of technologies in 333 patents. We plotted a life cycle of technologies related to natural ingredients. We also determined the cross impact of the technologies identified. We observed technologies related to processes applied to cosmetics (2.2%), functional packaging and applicators (2.9%), excipients and active compounds (21.5%), and cosmetic preparations (73.5%). Further, 21.6% of the patents were related to the use of natural ingredients. Several opportunities for innovation were discussed throughout this paper, for example, the use of peptides as active compounds or intracellular carriers (only 3.9% of the technologies in cosmetic preparations). We also observed technological cross impacts that suggested a trend toward multifunctional cosmetics, among others. Patent surveys may help researchers with product innovation because they allow us to identify available and unexplored technologies and turn them into whole new concepts.

  19. Conceptual core design of Advanced Recycling Reactor based on mature technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ikeda, Kazumi, E-mail: kazumi_ikeda@mfbr.mhi.co.jp [Mitsubishi FBR systems, Tokyo 150-0001 (Japan); Stein, Kim O., E-mail: Kim.Stein@areva.com [AREVA Federal Services, Bethesda, MD 20814 (United States); Nakazato, Wataru, E-mail: wataru_nakazato@mhi.co.jp [Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Kobe 652-8585 (Japan); Mito, Makoto, E-mail: makoto_mito@mfbr.mhi.co.jp [Mitsubishi FBR systems, Tokyo 150-0001 (Japan)

    2011-06-15

    Research highlights: > ARR is an oxide fueled sodium cooled reactor based on mature technologies to destruct TRU. > Flat core with thick wall cladding tubes are effective for ARR to reduce TRU CR and the void reactivity. > The ARR has TRU burning capability from 19 to 21 kg/TW{sub th}h and is sustainable in recycling. > The ARR can also accept TRU from LWR-MOX fuel and recycled TRU fuel, etc. > The ARR can transform from TRU conversion ratio of 0.56 to breeding ratio of 1.03 smoothly and safely. - Abstract: This paper presents about comprehensive investigations into Advanced Recycling Reactor (ARR) based on existing and/or mature technologies (called 'Early ARR'), aiming transuranics (TRU) burning and considering harmonization of TRU burning capability, technology readiness, economy and safety. The ARR is a 500 MW{sub e} (1180 MW{sub th}) oxide fueled sodium cooled fast reactor, which the low core height of 70 cm and the large structure volume fraction with 1.0 mm of cladding thickness to tube wall have been chosen among 14 candidate concepts to reduce the TRU conversion ratio (CR) and the void reactivity, taking technology readiness into account. As a result of nuclear calculation, the ARR has TRU burning capability from 19 to 21 kg/TW{sub th}h and is sustainable in recycling. And the ARR can accept several kinds of TRU; the LWR uranium oxide fuels, LWR-MOX used nuclear fuel, and TRU recycled in this fuel cycle and the ARR is also flexible in TRU management in ways that it can transform from TRU CR of 0.56 to breeding ratio (BR) of 1.03. In addition, it has been confirmed that the ARR core conforms to the set design requirements; the void reactivity, the maximum linear heat rate, and the shutdown margin of reactivity control system. It has been confirmed that the closed fuel cycle with the ARR plants of 180 GW{sub th} will not release TRU outside and generate more electricity by 65% compared with the present nuclear power system in the US, curbing the

  20. Assessing the maturity and re-usability of NASA's Advanced Information System Technology (AIST) Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Little, M. M.; Hines, K.

    2016-12-01

    Considerable funding has been invested in Earth science information technology (IT) projects by NASA over the past 15 years. While many of these projects succeeded at completing their objectives, rapid improvements in technology and growth in available data could further enhance the capabilities available to the Earth science community. Independent evaluation of these projects has become more and more important. Not only do they qualify the maturity of the work, but they give potential adopters the chance to kick the tires. One approach that has been used is to task Federally Funded Research and Development Corporations (FFRDC) with reviews and paper studies. Another approach involves field testing by third parties. Over the past three years, the AIST Program has tried both. This paper will describe both approaches and lessons learned from the experiences. The audience will be asked for their suggestions as to how to qualify and value these results.

  1. An extension of the technology acceptance model for business intelligence systems: project management maturity perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirjana Pejić Bach

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Business intelligence systems (BISs refer to wide range of technologies and applications useful for retrieving and analyzing the large amount of information with the goal to generate knowledge useful for making effective business decision. In order to investigate adoption of BISs in companies, we propose a model based on the technology acceptance model (TAM that is expanded by variables representing the concept of a project management maturity (PMM. The survey on the sample of USA companies has been conducted with the chief information officer (CIO as the main informant. Structural equations model has been developed in order to test the research model. Results indicate that TAM expanded with the notion of PMM is useful in increasing understanding of BISs adoption in companies.

  2. Probabilistic Latent Semantic Analyses (PLSA in Bibliometric Analysis for Technology Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Zan

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Due to the availability of internet-based abstract services and patent databases, bibliometric analysis has become one of key technology forecasting approaches. Recently, latent semantic analysis (LSA has been applied to improve the accuracy in document clustering. In this paper, a new LSA method, probabilistic latent semantic analysis (PLSA which uses probabilistic methods and algebra to search latent space in the corpus is further applied in document clustering. The results show that PLSA is more accurate than LSA and the improved iteration method proposed by authors can simplify the computing process and improve the computing efficiency

  3. Review of methods for forecasting the market penetration of new technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilshannon, S.T.; Brown, D.R.

    1996-12-01

    In 1993 the DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EE) initiated a program called Quality Metrics. Quality Metrics was developed to measure the costs and benefits of technologies being developed by EE R ampersand D programs. The impact of any new technology is directly related to its adoption by the market. The techniques employed to project market adoption are critical to measuring a new technology's impact. Our purpose was to review current market penetration theories and models and develop a recommended approach for evaluating the market penetration of DOE technologies. The following commonly cited innovation diffusion theories were reviewed to identify analytical approaches relevant to new energy technologies: (1) the normal noncumulative adopter distribution method, (2) the Bass Model, (3) the Mansfield-Blackman Model, (4) the Fisher-Pry Model, (5) a meta-analysis of innovation diffusion studies. Of the theories reviewed, the Bass and Mansfield-Blackman models were found most applicable to forecasting the market penetration of electricity supply technologies. Their algorithms require input estimates which characterize the technology adoption behavior of the electricity supply industry. But, inadequate work has been done to quantify the technology adoption characteristics of this industry. The following energy technology market penetration models were also reviewed: (1) DOE's Renewable Energy Penetration (REP) Model, (2) DOE's Electricity Capacity Planning Submodule of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), (3) the Assessment of Energy Technologies (ASSET) model by Regional Economic Research, Inc., (4) the Market TREK model by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). The two DOE models were developed for electricity generation technologies whereas the Regional Economic Research and EPRI models were designed for demand- side energy technology markets. Therefore, the review and evaluation focused on the DOE models

  4. New technology for using meteorological information in forest insect pest forecast and warning systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, Jiang-Lin; Yang, Xiu-Hao; Yang, Zhong-Wu; Luo, Ji-Tong; Lei, Xiu-Feng

    2017-12-01

    Near surface air temperature and rainfall are major weather factors affecting forest insect dynamics. The recent developments in remote sensing retrieval and geographic information system spatial analysis techniques enable the utilization of weather factors to significantly enhance forest pest forecasting and warning systems. The current study focused on building forest pest digital data structures as a platform of correlation analysis between weather conditions and forest pest dynamics for better pest forecasting and warning systems using the new technologies. The study dataset contained 3 353 425 small polygons with 174 defined attributes covering 95 counties of Guangxi province of China currently registering 292 forest pest species. Field data acquisition and information transfer systems were established with four software licences that provided 15-fold improvement compared to the systems currently used in China. Nine technical specifications were established including codes of forest districts, pest species and host tree species, and standard practices of forest pest monitoring and information management. Attributes can easily be searched using ArcGIS9.3 and/or the free QGIS2.16 software. Small polygons with pest relevant attributes are a new tool of precision farming and detailed forest insect pest management that are technologically advanced. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

  5. Business model configuration and dynamics for technology commercialization in mature markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flammini, Serena; Arcese, Gabriella; Lucchetti, Maria Claudia; Mortara, Letizia

    2017-01-01

    The food industry is a well-established and complex industry. New entrants attempting to penetrate it via the commercialization of a new technological innovation could face high uncertainty and constraints. The capability to innovate through collaboration and to identify suitable strategies and innovative business models (BMs) can be particularly important for bringing a technological innovation to this market. However, although the potential for these capabilities has been advocated, we still lack a complete understanding of how new ventures could support the technology commercialization process via the development of BMs. The paper aims to discuss these issues. To address this gap, this paper builds a conceptual framework that knits together the different bodies of extant literature (i.e. entrepreneurship, strategy and innovation) to analyze the BM innovation processes associated with the exploitation of emerging technologies; determines the suitability of the framework using data from the exploratory case study of IT IS 3D - a firm which has started to exploit 3D printing in the food industry; and improves the initial conceptual framework with the findings that emerged in the case study. From this analysis it emerged that: companies could use more than one BM at a time; hence, BM innovation processes could co-exist and be run in parallel; the facing of high uncertainty might lead firms to choose a closed and/or a familiar BM, while explorative strategies could be pursued with open BMs; significant changes in strategies during the technology commercialization process are not necessarily reflected in a radical change in the BM; and firms could deliberately adopt interim strategies and BMs as means to identify the more suitable ones to reach the market. This case study illustrates how firms could innovate the processes of their BM development to face the uncertainties linked with the entry into a mature and highly conservative industry (food).

  6. Cognitive methodology for forecasting oil and gas industry using pattern-based neural information technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gafurov, O.; Gafurov, D.; Syryamkin, V.

    2018-05-01

    The paper analyses a field of computer science formed at the intersection of such areas of natural science as artificial intelligence, mathematical statistics, and database theory, which is referred to as "Data Mining" (discovery of knowledge in data). The theory of neural networks is applied along with classical methods of mathematical analysis and numerical simulation. The paper describes the technique protected by the patent of the Russian Federation for the invention “A Method for Determining Location of Production Wells during the Development of Hydrocarbon Fields” [1–3] and implemented using the geoinformation system NeuroInformGeo. There are no analogues in domestic and international practice. The paper gives an example of comparing the forecast of the oil reservoir quality made by the geophysicist interpreter using standard methods and the forecast of the oil reservoir quality made using this technology. The technical result achieved shows the increase of efficiency, effectiveness, and ecological compatibility of development of mineral deposits and discovery of a new oil deposit.

  7. Criteria and model for assessing and improving information technology maturity within maintenance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kans, M; Ehsanifard, K; Moniri, A

    2012-01-01

    Maintenance optimization and decision-making processes have been both influenced considerably by Information Technology (IT) developments mainly by increasing data availability. The decision-making process in its turn has affected systems trustworthiness positively. Therefore, theoretically speaking it could be said that Maintenance Management Information technology (MMIT) has the potential to provide applicable solutions for many of the maintenance management problems. Nevertheless, this potential has been hardly experienced in practice because of the mismatch between the level of IT maturity in the organizations and their selected MMIT solutions. To fill this gap this paper suggests a number of criteria which are crucial in decision making for selecting a MMIT application. The criteria are formed based on previous findings utilising an extensive literature review. A model is further developed for this purpose which is also tested on a case company active in power generation in Sweden. The model proved to be helpful when taking further improvement steps for reaching high utilization of IT in maintenance.

  8. Technology data characterizing refrigeration in commercial buildings: Application to end-use forecasting with COMMEND 4.0

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sezgen, O.; Koomey, J.G.

    1995-12-01

    In the United States, energy consumption is increasing most rapidly in the commercial sector. Consequently, the commercial sector is becoming an increasingly important target for state and federal energy policies and also for utility-sponsored demand side management (DSM) programs. The rapid growth in commercial-sector energy consumption also makes it important for analysts working on energy policy and DSM issues to have access to energy end-use forecasting models that include more detailed representations of energy-using technologies in the commercial sector. These new forecasting models disaggregate energy consumption not only by fuel type, end use, and building type, but also by specific technology. The disaggregation of the refrigeration end use in terms of specific technologies, however, is complicated by several factors. First, the number of configurations of refrigeration cases and systems is quite large. Also, energy use is a complex function of the refrigeration-case properties and the refrigeration-system properties. The Electric Power Research Institute`s (EPRI`s) Commercial End-Use Planning System (COMMEND 4.0) and the associated data development presented in this report attempt to address the above complications and create a consistent forecasting framework. Expanding end-use forecasting models so that they address individual technology options requires characterization of the present floorstock in terms of service requirements, energy technologies used, and cost-efficiency attributes of the energy technologies that consumers may choose for new buildings and retrofits. This report describes the process by which we collected refrigeration technology data. The data were generated for COMMEND 4.0 but are also generally applicable to other end-use forecasting frameworks for the commercial sector.

  9. Succeeding in deep water by combining technology qualification and production forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hussain, A.; Oiungen, B.; Raposo, C. [Det Norske Veritas (DNV), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    All the easy oil and gas is gone, and, as a result the Oil and Gas industry is continuously targeting deeper and more remote fields. The exploration and development of deep water oil and gas fields is associated with enormous costs and multiple uncertainties with regard to equipment reliability and performance. Proper risk management can be used to evaluate the impact of these uncertainties thereby helping to ensure optimal business performance of the future assets, as well as helping the decision maker target investment towards areas where the financial impact will be the greatest. This paper reviews the principles of Technology Qualification and Production Forecasting methodology, both of which are risk management solutions with a proven track record for deep water field developments. (author)

  10. Preliminary Technology Maturation Plan for Immobilization of High-Level Waste in Glass Ceramics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vienna, John D.; Crum, Jarrod V.; Sevigny, Gary J.; Smith, G L.

    2012-09-30

    A technology maturation plan (TMP) was developed for immobilization of high-level waste (HLW) raffinate in a glass ceramics waste form using a cold-crucible induction melter (CCIM). The TMP was prepared by the following process: 1) define the reference process and boundaries of the technology being matured, 2) evaluate the technology elements and identify the critical technology elements (CTE), 3) identify the technology readiness level (TRL) of each of the CTE’s using the DOE G 413.3-4, 4) describe the development and demonstration activities required to advance the TRLs to 4 and 6 in order, and 5) prepare a preliminary plan to conduct the development and demonstration. Results of the technology readiness assessment identified five CTE’s and found relatively low TRL’s for each of them: • Mixing, sampling, and analysis of waste slurry and melter feed: TRL-1 • Feeding, melting, and pouring: TRL-1 • Glass ceramic formulation: TRL-1 • Canister cooling and crystallization: TRL-1 • Canister decontamination: TRL-4 Although the TRL’s are low for most of these CTE’s (TRL-1), the effort required to advance them to higher values. The activities required to advance the TRL’s are listed below: • Complete this TMP • Perform a preliminary engineering study • Characterize, estimate, and simulate waste to be treated • Laboratory scale glass ceramic testing • Melter and off-gas testing with simulants • Test the mixing, sampling, and analyses • Canister testing • Decontamination system testing • Issue a requirements document • Issue a risk management document • Complete preliminary design • Integrated pilot testing • Issue a waste compliance plan A preliminary schedule and budget were developed to complete these activities as summarized in the following table (assuming 2012 dollars). TRL Budget Year MSA FMP GCF CCC CD Overall $M 2012 1 1 1 1 4 1 0.3 2013 2 2 1 1 4 1 1.3 2014 2 3 1 1 4 1 1.8 2015 2 3 2 2 4 2 2.6 2016 2 3 2 2 4 2 4

  11. Technology data characterizing water heating in commercial buildings: Application to end-use forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sezgen, O.; Koomey, J.G.

    1995-12-01

    Commercial-sector conservation analyses have traditionally focused on lighting and space conditioning because of their relatively-large shares of electricity and fuel consumption in commercial buildings. In this report we focus on water heating, which is one of the neglected end uses in the commercial sector. The share of the water-heating end use in commercial-sector electricity consumption is 3%, which corresponds to 0.3 quadrillion Btu (quads) of primary energy consumption. Water heating accounts for 15% of commercial-sector fuel use, which corresponds to 1.6 quads of primary energy consumption. Although smaller in absolute size than the savings associated with lighting and space conditioning, the potential cost-effective energy savings from water heaters are large enough in percentage terms to warrant closer attention. In addition, water heating is much more important in particular building types than in the commercial sector as a whole. Fuel consumption for water heating is highest in lodging establishments, hospitals, and restaurants (0.27, 0.22, and 0.19 quads, respectively); water heating`s share of fuel consumption for these building types is 35%, 18% and 32%, respectively. At the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, we have developed and refined a base-year data set characterizing water heating technologies in commercial buildings as well as a modeling framework. We present the data and modeling framework in this report. The present commercial floorstock is characterized in terms of water heating requirements and technology saturations. Cost-efficiency data for water heating technologies are also developed. These data are intended to support models used for forecasting energy use of water heating in the commercial sector.

  12. Enhancing nutrient recovery and compost maturity of coconut husk by vermicomposting technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swarnam, T P; Velmurugan, A; Pandey, Sanjay Kumar; Dam Roy, S

    2016-05-01

    Vermicompost was prepared by five different treatments from relatively resistant coconut husk mixed with either pig slurry or poultry manure. The recovery of vermicompost varied from 35% to 43% and it resulted in significant increase in pH, microbial biomass carbon, macro and micro nutrients concentration. Among the treatments highest relative N (1.6) and K (1.3) recovery were observed for 20% feedstock substitution by pig slurry while poultry manure substitution recorded highest P recovery (2.4). Compost maturity parameters significantly differed and well correlated. The characteristics of different treatments established the maturity indices as C/N 15-20; Cw1.5 and HI>15.0. The manurial value of the coconut husk compost was improved by feedstock substitution with pig slurry (80:20). The results revealed the technical feasibility of converting coconut husk into valuable compost by feedstock substitution with pig slurry. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Particle-Reinforced Aluminum Matrix Composites (AMCs—Selected Results of an Integrated Technology, User, and Market Analysis and Forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anja Schmidt

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The research and development of new materials such as particle-reinforced aluminum matrix composites (AMCs will only result in a successful innovation if these materials show significant advantages not only from a technological, but also from an economic point of view. Against this background, in the Collaborative Research Center SFB 692, the concept of an integrated technology, user, and market analysis and forecast has been developed as a means for assessing the technological and commercial potential of new materials in early life cycle stages. After briefly describing this concept, it is applied to AMCs and the potential field of manufacturing aircraft components. Results show not only technological advances, but also considerable economic potential—the latter one primarily resulting from the possible weight reduction being enabled by the increased yield strength of the new material.

  14. The value of smart artificial lift technology in mature field operations demonstrated in the Zistersdorf oilfield in Austria

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muessig, S.; Oberndorfer, M.; Rice, D. [Rohoelaufsuchungs-AG, Wien (Austria); Soliman, K. [Montanuniversitaet Leoben (Austria)

    2013-08-01

    Currently, approximately 40% of world oil production comes from mature fields and the tendency is that this will increase with time. A significant portion of operational expenditures in mature oil fields is related to lifting costs including the cost of maintenance of the artificial lift equipment. In many cases additional, unnecessary, costs are incurred due to inadequate control of corrosion and sand production leading to premature failures of the equipment and thus to additional workover operations. In mature fields this can result in a significant loss of reserves when the production has to be abandoned prematurely because workover operations become uneconomic. In order to combat such losses of reserves RAG and its partners have developed fit-for-purpose technologies such as: continuous control of the liquid level in the annulus (i.e. bottom hole flowing pressure), innovative advanced sand control and longer lasting artificial lift equipment. On the basis of the 75 years old Zistersdorf oilfields the value of these developments in artificial lift technology is demonstrated. The Zistersdorf oilfields produce primarily from the compacted and fairly permeable 'Sarmat' sandstone formation which has many layers whereby the higher layers are poorly consolidated. The fields are currently producing from 33 producing wells some 6 900 m{sup 3} (Vn)/d gas and 48 t/d of oil at an average water cut of 97.1%. It will be shown that the implementation of the technologies described in combination with the in-house knowledge and the dedication of the field staff has extended considerably the mean time between failures of the equipment, reduced markedly the average yearly decline rate and thus extended the economic life expectancy of the fields and increased the ultimate recovery significantly.

  15. Current and Potential Use of Technology Forecasting Tools in the Federal Government

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-01

    in a stand-alone fashion . vii Contents 1. Introduction... consultations with subject matter experts. The respondents at GAO expressed that one of their most significant challenges is forecasting the global economic...supplant the role of the analyst, and it should not be operated in a stand-alone fashion . In the following chapter, the specific capabilities of

  16. Factors affecting the educational achievement of mature Māori information technology students: A case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Blain Harre Rakena

    Full Text Available This paper reports on the results of an investigation into the experiences of academically successful adult Māori students undertaking the Bachelor of Information Technology (BIT programme at the Waikato Institute of Technology (Wintec. This research looked at the participants\\' motivation for attending Wintec, the barriers (such as financial, social and family hardships they encountered as they made the transition back to full time study, and their experiences at Wintec. The paper considers the reasons why the participants have achieved well, identifies the support systems they called on, and explores the challenges that they experienced while studying in a tertiary learning environment. Its significance lies in the focus on factors that affect Māori academic success, specifically in information technology, so that teaching approaches and support systems, particularly in the institute of technology and polytechnic (ITP sector, can enhance the success of Māori in the field of IT.

  17. Heatshield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology (HEEET) Development and Maturation Status

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellerby, D.; Boghozian, T.; Driver, D.; Chavez-Garcia, J.; Fowler, M.; Gage, P.; Gasch, M.; Gonzales, G.; Kazemba, C.; Kellermann, C.; hide

    2018-01-01

    This poster provides an overview of the requirements, design, development and testing of the 3D (Three Dimensional) Woven TPS (Thermal Protection System) being developed under NASA's Heatshield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology (HEEET) project. Under this current program, NASA is working to develop a TPS capable of surviving entry into Saturn. A primary goal of the project is to build and test an Engineering Test Unit (ETU) to establish a Technical Readiness Level (TRL) of 6 for this technology by 2017.

  18. Blockchain and Smart Contracts for Insurance: Is the Technology Mature Enough?

    OpenAIRE

    Valentina Gatteschi; Fabrizio Lamberti; Claudio Demartini; Chiara Pranteda; Víctor Santamaría

    2018-01-01

    Blockchain is receiving increasing attention from academy and industry, since it is considered a breakthrough technology that could bring huge benefits to many different sectors. In 2017, Gartner positioned blockchain close to the peak of inflated expectations, acknowledging the enthusiasm for this technology that is now largely discussed by media. In this scenario, the risk to adopt it in the wake of enthusiasm, without objectively judging its actual added value is rather high. Insurance is ...

  19. Heatshield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology (HEEET) Development and Maturation Status for NF Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellerby, D.; Blosser, M.; Boghozian, T.; Chavez-Garcia, J.; Chinnapongse, R.; Fowler, M.; Gage, P.; Gasch, M.; Gonzales, G.; Hamm, K.; hide

    2016-01-01

    This poster provides an overview of the requirements, design, development and testing of the 3D Woven TPS being developed under NASA's Heatshield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology (HEEET) project. Under this current program, NASA is working to develop a Thermal Protection System (TPS) capable of surviving entry into Saturn. A primary goal of the project is to build and test an Engineering Test Unit (ETU) to establish a Technical Readiness Level (TRL) of 6 for this technology by 2017.

  20. Adaptive Opportunistic Cooperative Control Mechanism Based on Combination Forecasting and Multilevel Sensing Technology of Sensors for Mobile Internet of Things

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yong Jin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In mobile Internet of Things, there are many challenges, including sensing technology of sensors, how and when to join cooperative transmission, and how to select the cooperative sensors. To address these problems, we studied the combination forecasting based on the multilevel sensing technology of sensors, building upon which we proposed the adaptive opportunistic cooperative control mechanism based on the threshold values such as activity probability, distance, transmitting power, and number of relay sensors, in consideration of signal to noise ratio and outage probability. More importantly, the relay sensors would do self-test real time in order to judge whether to join the cooperative transmission, for maintaining the optimal cooperative transmission state with high performance. The mathematical analyses results show that the proposed adaptive opportunistic cooperative control approach could perform better in terms of throughput ratio, packet error rate and delay, and energy efficiency, compared with the direct transmission and opportunistic cooperative approaches.

  1. Structural equation modelling based data fusion for technology forecasting: A generic framework

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Staphorst, L

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available to explain the variations in independent variables as functions (commonly referred to regression functions) of variations in dependent variables [13]. With this knowledge it is then possible to perform prediction and forecasting of the values that dependent....G.; “A General Method for Estimating a Linear Structural Equation System,” in Structural Equation Models in the Social Sciences, eds.: A.S. Goldberger and O. D. Duncan, New York: Seminar, 1973. [15] Steinberg, A.N. and Rogova, G.; "Situation...

  2. A view of technology maturity assessment to realize fusion reactor by Japanese young researchers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kasada, Ryuta; Goto, Takuya; Miyazawa, Junichi; Fujioka, Shinsuke; Hiwatari, Ryoji; Oyama, Naoyuki; Tanigawa, Hiroyasu

    2013-01-01

    Japanese young researchers who have interest in realizing fusion reactor have analyzed Technology Readiness Levels (TRL) in Young Scientists Special Interest Group on Fusion Reactor Realization. In this report, brief introduction to TRL assessment and a view of TRL assessment against fusion reactor projects conducting in Japan. (J.P.N.)

  3. Rehabilitation of Mature Gas Fields in Romania: Success Through Integration of Management Processes and New Technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louboutin Michel

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available Nature oil and gas fields are difficult to rehabilitate effectively because of the economics of declining production. Many fields are abandoned prematurely when their life could be prolonged significantly through application of new technology. Romgaz (a national exploration and production company and Schlumberger (an integrated oilfield services company developed a new business model to overcome these obstacles. The key to success of this model, which is being applied to gas fields in the Transylvanian basin of Romania, is the shared risk and shared reward for the two companies. Integrated management processes addressing the complete system from reservoir to wellbore to surface/transmission facilities and application of new technology (logging, perforation, etc. have resulted in multifold increases in production.

  4. Blockchain and Smart Contracts for Insurance: Is the Technology Mature Enough?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valentina Gatteschi

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Blockchain is receiving increasing attention from academy and industry, since it is considered a breakthrough technology that could bring huge benefits to many different sectors. In 2017, Gartner positioned blockchain close to the peak of inflated expectations, acknowledging the enthusiasm for this technology that is now largely discussed by media. In this scenario, the risk to adopt it in the wake of enthusiasm, without objectively judging its actual added value is rather high. Insurance is one the sectors that, among others, started to carefully investigate the possibilities of blockchain. For this specific sector, however, the hype cycle shows that the technology is still in the innovation trigger phase, meaning that the spectrum of possible applications has not been fully explored yet. Insurers, as with many other companies not necessarily active only in the financial sector, are currently requested to make a hard decision, that is, whether to adopt blockchain or not, and they will only know if they were right in 3–5 years. The objective of this paper is to support actors involved in this decision process by illustrating what a blockchain is, analyzing its advantages and disadvantages, as well as discussing several use cases taken from the insurance sector, which could easily be extended to other domains.

  5. Project Morpheus: Lean Development of a Terrestrial Flight Testbed for Maturing NASA Lander Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devolites, Jennifer L.; Olansen, Jon B.

    2015-01-01

    NASA's Morpheus Project has developed and tested a prototype planetary lander capable of vertical takeoff and landing that is designed to serve as a testbed for advanced spacecraft technologies. The lander vehicle, propelled by a Liquid Oxygen (LOX)/Methane engine and sized to carry a 500kg payload to the lunar surface, provides a platform for bringing technologies from the laboratory into an integrated flight system at relatively low cost. In 2012, Morpheus began integrating the Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance Technology (ALHAT) sensors and software onto the vehicle in order to demonstrate safe, autonomous landing and hazard avoidance. From the beginning, one of goals for the Morpheus Project was to streamline agency processes and practices. The Morpheus project accepted a challenge to tailor the traditional NASA systems engineering approach in a way that would be appropriate for a lower cost, rapid prototype engineering effort, but retain the essence of the guiding principles. This paper describes the tailored project life cycle and systems engineering approach for the Morpheus project, including the processes, tools, and amount of rigor employed over the project's multiple lifecycles since the project began in fiscal year (FY) 2011.

  6. Logical design of a decision support system to forecast technology, prices and costs for the national communications system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, K. A.; Partridge, E. C., III

    1984-09-01

    Originally envisioned as a means to integrate the many systems found throughout the government, the general mission of the NCS continues to be to ensure the survivability of communications during and subsequent to any national emergency. In order to accomplish this mission the NCS is an arrangement of heterogeneous telecommunications systems which are provided by their sponsor Federal agencies. The physical components of Federal telecommunications systems and networks include telephone and digital data switching facilities and primary common user communications centers; Special purpose local delivery message switching and exchange facilities; Government owned or leased radio systems; Technical control facilities which are under exclusive control of a government agency. This thesis describes the logical design of a proposed decision support system for use by the National Communications System in forecasting technology, prices, and costs. It is general in nature and only includes those forecasting models which are suitable for computer implementation. Because it is a logical design it can be coded and applied in many different hardware and/or software configurations.

  7. Gonadotropin-releasing hormone agonist triggering of oocyte maturation in assisted reproductive technology cycles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Engin Türkgeldi

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Gonadotropin-releasing hormone agonists (GnRHa have gained increasing attention in the last decade as an alternative trigger for oocyte maturation in patients at high risk for ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome (OHSS. They provide a short luteinizing hormone (LH peak that limits the production of vascular endothelial growth factor, which is the key mediator leading to increased vascular permeability, the hallmark of OHSS. Initial studies showed similar oocyte yield and embryo quality compared with conventional human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG triggering; however, lower pregnancy rates and higher miscarriage rates were alarming in GnRHa triggered groups. Therefore, two approaches have been implemented to rescue the luteal phase in fresh transfers. Intensive luteal phase support (iLPS involves administiration of high doses of progesterone and estrogen and active patient monitoring. iLPS has been shown to provide satisfactory fertilization and clinical pregnancy rates, and to be especially useful in patients with high endogenous LH levels, such as in polycystic ovary syndrome. The other method for luteal phase rescue is low-dose hCG administiration 35 hours after GnRHa trigger. Likewise, this method results in statistically similar ongoing pregnancy rates (although slightly lower than to those of hCG triggered cycles. GnRHa triggering decreased OHSS rates dramatically, however, none of the rescue methods prevent OHSS totally. Cases were reported even in patients who underwent cryopreservation and did not receive hCG. GnRH triggering induces a follicle stimulating hormone (FSH surge, similar to natural cycles. Its possible benefits have been investigated and dual triggering, GnRHa trigger accompanied by a simultaneous low-dose hCG injection, has produced promising results that urge further exploration. Last of all, GnRHa triggering is useful in fertility preservation cycles in patients with hormone sensitive tumors. In conclusion, GnRHa triggering

  8. Forecasting the experience of future entertainment technology: “Interactive Storytelling” and media enjoyment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klimmt, C.; Roth, C.; Vermeulen, I.E.; Vorderer, P.A.; Roth, F.S.

    2012-01-01

    Advances in gaming and other entertainment technologies are evolving rapidly and create new conceptual challenges for understanding and explaining the user experiences they can facilitate. The present article reports a prospective study on a particularly promising entertainment technology of the

  9. Problems of Forecast

    OpenAIRE

    Kucharavy , Dmitry; De Guio , Roland

    2005-01-01

    International audience; The ability to foresee future technology is a key task of Innovative Design. The paper focuses on the obstacles to reliable prediction of technological evolution for the purpose of Innovative Design. First, a brief analysis of problems for existing forecasting methods is presented. The causes for the complexity of technology prediction are discussed in the context of reduction of the forecast errors. Second, using a contradiction analysis, a set of problems related to ...

  10. TwinFocus, a concentrated photovoltaic module based on mature technologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonini Piergiorgio

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Among solar power generation, concentrated photovoltaics (CPV based on multijunction (MJ solar cells, is one of the most promising technology for hot climates. The fact that multijunction solar cells based on direct band gap semiconductors demonstrate lower dependence on temperature than silicon solar cells boosted their use in concentrated photovoltaics modules. Departing from the mainstream design of Fresnel lenses, the CPV module based on TwinFocus design with off-axis quasi parabolic mirrors differentiates itself for its compactness and the possibility of easy integration also in roof-top applications. A detailed description of the module and of the systems will be given together with measured performances, and expectations for the next release.

  11. FULL SCALE TESTING TECHNOLOGY MATURATION OF A THIN FILM EVAPORATOR FOR HIGH-LEVEL LIQUID WASTE MANAGEMENT AT HANFORD - 12125

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    TEDESCHI AR; CORBETT JE; WILSON RA; LARKIN J

    2012-01-26

    Simulant testing of a full-scale thin-film evaporator system was conducted in 2011 for technology development at the Hanford tank farms. Test results met objectives of water removal rate, effluent quality, and operational evaluation. Dilute tank waste simulant, representing a typical double-shell tank supernatant liquid layer, was concentrated from a 1.1 specific gravity to approximately 1.5 using a 4.6 m{sup 2} (50 ft{sup 2}) heated transfer area Rototherm{reg_sign} evaporator from Artisan Industries. The condensed evaporator vapor stream was collected and sampled validating efficient separation of the water. An overall decontamination factor of 1.2E+06 was achieved demonstrating excellent retention of key radioactive species within the concentrated liquid stream. The evaporator system was supported by a modular steam supply, chiller, and control computer systems which would be typically implemented at the tank farms. Operation of these support systems demonstrated successful integration while identifying areas for efficiency improvement. Overall testing effort increased the maturation of this technology to support final deployment design and continued project implementation.

  12. Considerations in forecasting the demand for carbon sequestration and biotic storage technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trexler, M.C. [Trexler and Associates, Inc., Portland, OR (United States)

    1997-12-31

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has identified forestry and other land-use based mitigation measures as possible sources and sinks of greenhouse gases. An overview of sequestration and biotic storage is presented, and the potential impacts of the use of carbon sequestration as a mitigation technology are briefly noted. Carbon sequestration is also compare to other mitigation technologies. Biotic mitigation technologies are concluded to be a legitimate and potentially important part of greenhouse gas mitigation due to their relatively low costs, ancillary benefits, and climate impact. However, not all biotic mitigation techniques perfectly match the idealized definition of a mitigation measure, and policies are becoming increasingly biased against biotic technologies.

  13. Continued maturing of SOFC cell production technology and development and demonstration of SOFC stacks. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2008-08-15

    The overall objective of the 6385 project was to develop stack materials, components and stack technology including industrial relevant manufacturing methods for cells components and stacks. Furthermore, the project should include testing and demonstration of the stacks under relevant operating conditions. A production of 6.829 cells, twenty 75-cell stacks and a number of small stacks was achieved. Major improvements were also made in the manufacturing methods and in stack design. Two test and demonstration activities were included in the project. The first test unit was established at H.C. OErsted power plant at the Copenhagen waterfront in order to perform test of SOFC stacks. The unit will be used for tests in other projects. The second demonstration unit is the alpha prototype demonstration in a system running on natural gas in Finland. The alpha prototype demonstration system with 24 TOFC (Topsoe Fuel Cell) stacks was established and started running in October 2007 and operational experience was gained in the period from October 2007 to February 2008. (auther)

  14. Named Entity Recognition for Spanish language and applications in technology forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raúl Gutiérrez

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Named Entity Recognition (NER is a main task into Natural Language Processing. On the one hand, supporting the extraction of the information on unstructured data. On the other hand, The NER is a probabilistic graphical model that allows us to represent the conditional independency assumptions into the sequential labelling. In this paper, we propose a discriminative graphical model by using linear-chain Conditional Random Fields (CRFs. We present the experiments based on the Conll-2002 shared task and Ancora corpus according to the following criteria: recall, precision and F-score. Our contributions in this work are the following: first, we tested our baseline on the CoNLL-2002 shared task obtaining 80% F1-measure, and 59% F1-measure on AnCora corpus respectively. Finally, the application Vigtech allow us to identify information and patterns in the cancer topic, we discuss the results according to the model performance and the useful information to support the forecasting process

  15. Beyond maturity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tessmer, W.B.

    1990-01-01

    The Nuclear Power Plant Simulator Industry has undergone to decades of evolution in experience, technology and business practices. Link-Miles Simulation Corporation (LMSC) has been contracted to build 68 Full Scope Nuclear Simulators during the 1970's and 1980's. Traditional approaches to design, development and testing have been used to satisfy specifications for initial customer requirements. However, the Industry has matured. All U.S. Nuclear Utilities own, or have under contract, at least one simulator. Other industrial nations have centralized training facilities to satisfy the simulator training needs. The customer of the future is knowledgeable and experienced in the development and service of nuclear simulators. The role of the simulator vendor is changing in order to alter the traditional approach for development. Covenants between the vendors and their customers solidify new complementary roles. This paper presents examples of current simulator project development with recommendations for future endeavors

  16. Modeling and Forecasting the Impact of Major Technological and Infrastructural Changes on Travel Demand

    OpenAIRE

    El Zarwi, Feras

    2017-01-01

    The transportation system is undergoing major technological and infrastructural changes, such as the introduction of autonomous vehicles, high speed rail, carsharing, ridesharing, flying cars, drones, and other app-driven on-demand services. While the changes are imminent, the impact on travel behavior is uncertain, as is the role of policy in shaping the future. Literature shows that even under the most optimistic scenarios, society’s environmental goals cannot be met by technology, operatio...

  17. Forecast Combinations

    OpenAIRE

    Timmermann, Allan G

    2005-01-01

    Forecast combinations have frequently been found in empirical studies to produce better forecasts on average than methods based on the ex-ante best individual forecasting model. Moreover, simple combinations that ignore correlations between forecast errors often dominate more refined combination schemes aimed at estimating the theoretically optimal combination weights. In this paper we analyse theoretically the factors that determine the advantages from combining forecasts (for example, the d...

  18. Forecast combinations

    OpenAIRE

    Aiolfi, Marco; Capistrán, Carlos; Timmermann, Allan

    2010-01-01

    We consider combinations of subjective survey forecasts and model-based forecasts from linear and non-linear univariate specifications as well as multivariate factor-augmented models. Empirical results suggest that a simple equal-weighted average of survey forecasts outperform the best model-based forecasts for a majority of macroeconomic variables and forecast horizons. Additional improvements can in some cases be gained by using a simple equal-weighted average of survey and model-based fore...

  19. Consistency and robustness of forecasting for emerging technologies: The case of Li-ion batteries for electric vehicles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sakti, Apurba; Azevedo, Inês M.L.; Fuchs, Erica R.H.; Michalek, Jeremy J.; Gallagher, Kevin G.; Whitacre, Jay F.

    2017-01-01

    There are a large number of accounts about rapidly declining costs of batteries with potentially transformative effects, but these accounts often are not based on detailed design and technical information. Using a method ideally suited for that purpose, we find that when experts are free to assume any battery pack design, a majority of the cost estimates are consistent with the ranges reported in the literature, although the range is notably large. However, we also find that 55% of relevant experts’ component-level cost projections are inconsistent with their total pack-level projections, and 55% of relevant experts’ elicited cost projections are inconsistent with the cost projections generated by putting their design- and process-level assumptions into our process-based cost model (PBCM). These results suggest a need for better understanding of the technical assumptions driving popular consensus regarding future costs. Approaches focusing on technological details first, followed by non-aggregated and systemic cost estimates while keeping the experts aware of any discrepancies, should they arise, may result in more accurate forecasts. - Highlights: • New technology cost projections often confuse underlying technical assumptions. • We use a novel method combining expert elicitations and production cost models. • 55% of experts’ component-level cost projections contain internal inconsistencies. • Technical assumptions driving popular consensus regarding future costs are key.

  20. Are Lipases Still Important Biocatalysts? A Study of Scientific Publications and Patents for Technological Forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daiha, Karina de Godoy; Angeli, Renata; de Oliveira, Sabrina Dias; Almeida, Rodrigo Volcan

    2015-01-01

    The great potential of lipases is known since 1930 when the work of J. B. S. Haldane was published. After eighty-five years of studies and developments, are lipases still important biocatalysts? For answering this question the present work investigated the technological development of four important industrial sectors where lipases are applied: production of detergent formulations; organic synthesis, focusing on kinetic resolution, production of biodiesel, and production of food and feed products. The analysis was made based on research publications and patent applications, working as scientific and technological indicators, respectively. Their evolution, interaction, the major players of each sector and the main subject matters disclosed in patent documents were discussed. Applying the concept of technology life cycle, S-curves were built by plotting cumulative patent data over time to monitor the attractiveness of each technology for investment. The results lead to a conclusion that the use of lipases as biocatalysts is still a relevant topic for the industrial sector, but developments are still needed for lipase biocatalysis to reach its full potential, which are expected to be achieved within the third, and present, wave of biocatalysis.

  1. Application of Neural Network Technologies for Price Forecasting in the Liberalized Electricity Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerikh, Valentin; Kolosok, Irina; Kurbatsky, Victor; Tomin, Nikita

    2009-01-01

    The paper presents the results of experimental studies concerning calculation of electricity prices in different price zones in Russia and Europe. The calculations are based on the intelligent software "ANAPRO" that implements the approaches based on the modern methods of data analysis and artificial intelligence technologies.

  2. Assessing the accuracy of forecasting: applying standard diagnostic assessment tools to a health technology early warning system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, Sue; Hyde, Chris; Cook, Alison; Packer, Claire; Stevens, Andrew

    2004-01-01

    Early warning systems are an integral part of many health technology assessment programs. Despite this finding, to date, there have been no quantitative evaluations of the accuracy of predictions made by these systems. We report a study evaluating the accuracy of predictions made by the main United Kingdom early warning system. As prediction of impact is analogous to diagnosis, a method normally applied to determine the accuracy of diagnostic tests was used. The sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of the National Horizon Scanning Centre's prediction methods were estimated with reference to an (imperfect) gold standard, that is, expert opinion of impact 3 to 5 years after prediction. The sensitivity of predictions was 71 percent (95 percent confidence interval [CI], 0.36-0.92), and the specificity was 73 percent (95 percent CI, 0.64-0.8). The negative predictive value was 98 percent (95 percent CI, 0.92-0.99), and the positive predictive value was 14 percent (95 percent CI, 0.06-0.3). Forecasting is difficult, but the results suggest that this early warning system's predictions have an acceptable level of accuracy. However, there are caveats. The first is that early warning systems may themselves reduce the impact of a technology, as helping to control adoption and diffusion is their main purpose. The second is that the use of an imperfect gold standard may bias the results. As early warning systems are viewed as an increasingly important component of health technology assessment and decision making, their outcomes must be evaluated. The method used here should be investigated further and the accuracy of other early warning systems explored.

  3. The History of Technology in Education. A Comparative Study and Forecast

    OpenAIRE

    del Campo, Jose María; Negro, Vicente; Núñez, Miguel

    2012-01-01

    Area, launched in 1999 with the Bologna Declaration, has bestowed such a magnitude and unprecedented agility to the transformation process undertaken by European universities. However, the change has been more profound and drastic with regards to the use of new technologies both inside and outside the classroom. This article focuses on the study and analysis of the technology’s history within the university education and its impact on teachers, students and teaching methods. A...

  4. Forecasting Skill

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-01-01

    for the third and fourth day precipitation forecasts. A marked improvement was shown for the consensus 24 hour precipitation forecast, and small... Zuckerberg (1980) found a small long term skill increase in forecasts of heavy snow events for nine eastern cities. Other National Weather Service...and maximum temperature) are each awarded marks 2, 1, or 0 according to whether the forecast is correct, 8 - *- -**■*- ———"—- - -■ t0m 1 MM—IB I

  5. Multidisciplinary studies of the social, economic and political impact resulting from recent advances in satellite meteorology. Volume 6: Executive summary. [technological forecasting spacecraft control/attitude (inclination) -classical mechanics

    Science.gov (United States)

    1975-01-01

    An assessment of the technological impact of modern satellite weather forecasting for the United States is presented. Topics discussed are: (1) television broadcasting of weather; (2) agriculture (crop production); (3) water resources; (4) urban development; (5) recreation; and (6) transportation.

  6. Foresight and Forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kilbourn, Kyle; Bay, Marie Brøndum

    In predicting areas of growth, public innovation projects may rely on optimistic visions of technology still in development as a way of ensuring novelty for funding. This paper explores what happens when forecasts of robotic technology meets the practice of sterile supply in a preliminary stage...

  7. Identification of the actual state and entity availability forecasting in power engineering using neural-network technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Protalinsky, O. M.; Shcherbatov, I. A.; Stepanov, P. V.

    2017-11-01

    A growing number of severe accidents in RF call for the need to develop a system that could prevent emergency situations. In a number of cases accident rate is stipulated by careless inspections and neglects in developing repair programs. Across the country rates of accidents are growing because of a so-called “human factor”. In this regard, there has become urgent the problem of identification of the actual state of technological facilities in power engineering using data on engineering processes running and applying artificial intelligence methods. The present work comprises four model states of manufacturing equipment of engineering companies: defect, failure, preliminary situation, accident. Defect evaluation is carried out using both data from SCADA and ASEPCR and qualitative information (verbal assessments of experts in subject matter, photo- and video materials of surveys processed using pattern recognition methods in order to satisfy the requirements). Early identification of defects makes possible to predict the failure of manufacturing equipment using mathematical techniques of artificial neural network. In its turn, this helps to calculate predicted characteristics of reliability of engineering facilities using methods of reliability theory. Calculation of the given parameters provides the real-time estimation of remaining service life of manufacturing equipment for the whole operation period. The neural networks model allows evaluating possibility of failure of a piece of equipment consistent with types of actual defects and their previous reasons. The article presents the grounds for a choice of training and testing samples for the developed neural network, evaluates the adequacy of the neural networks model, and shows how the model can be used to forecast equipment failure. There have been carried out simulating experiments using a computer and retrospective samples of actual values for power engineering companies. The efficiency of the developed

  8. LOX Gene Transcript Accumulation in Olive (Olea europaea L. Fruits at Different Stages of Maturation: Relationship between Volatile Compounds, Environmental Factors, and Technological Treatments for Oil Extraction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Innocenzo Muzzalupo

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The quality of olive oil is influenced by genetic and environmental factors and by the maturation state of drupes, but it is equally affected by technological treatments of the process. This work investigates the possible correlation between olive LOX gene transcript accumulation, evaluated in fruits collected at different stages of maturation, and chemical biomarkers of its activity. During olive fruit ripening, the same genotype harvested from two different farms shows a positive linear trend between LOX relative transcript accumulation and the content of volatile compounds present in the olive oil aroma. Interestingly, a negative linear trend was observed between LOX relative transcript accumulation and the content of volatile compounds present in the olive pastes obtained from olive fruits with and without malaxation. The changes in the olive LOX transcript accumulation reveal its environmental regulation and suggest differential physiological functions for the LOXs.

  9. Environmental management maturity of local and multinational high-technology corporations located in Brazil: the role of business internationalization in pollution prevention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanna Maialle

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract This paper identifies and characterizes the environmental maturity level of local and multinational high-technology corporations located in Brazil. This characterization is achieved by discussing the adoption of environmental management practices and considering aspects of the productive process stage. An eight-case study was conducted through data triangulation using interviews with employees in diverse organizational areas, direct observations and secondary data. The results indicate the differences in environmental positioning among the studied corporations with a predominance of preventive practices, i.e., an emphasis on eco-efficiency and compliance with legislation. It was also noted that environmental concerns in the corporations are related to internationalization and, in some cases, to the pressure exerted by corporations that represent the brand of the products produced in Brazil. Moreover, the adoption of environmental practices based on the productive process stage supported the environmental maturity classifications of the studied companies.

  10. Forecasting Interest Rates and Inflation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chun, Albert Lee

    the best overall for short horizon forecasts of short to medium term yields and inflation. Econometric models with shrinkage perform the best over longer horizons and maturities. Aggregating over a larger set of analysts improves inflation surveys while generally degrading interest rates surveys. We...

  11. State of the art and taxonomy of prognostics approaches, trends of prognostics applications and open issues towards maturity at different technology readiness levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Javed, Kamran; Gouriveau, Rafael; Zerhouni, Noureddine

    2017-09-01

    Integrating prognostics to a real application requires a certain maturity level and for this reason there is a lack of success stories about development of a complete Prognostics and Health Management system. In fact, the maturity of prognostics is closely linked to data and domain specific entities like modeling. Basically, prognostics task aims at predicting the degradation of engineering assets. However, practically it is not possible to precisely predict the impending failure, which requires a thorough understanding to encounter different sources of uncertainty that affect prognostics. Therefore, different aspects crucial to the prognostics framework, i.e., from monitoring data to remaining useful life of equipment need to be addressed. To this aim, the paper contributes to state of the art and taxonomy of prognostics approaches and their application perspectives. In addition, factors for prognostics approach selection are identified, and new case studies from component-system level are discussed. Moreover, open challenges toward maturity of the prognostics under uncertainty are highlighted and scheme for an efficient prognostics approach is presented. Finally, the existing challenges for verification and validation of prognostics at different technology readiness levels are discussed with respect to open challenges.

  12. Forecasting interest rates with shifting endpoints

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Van Dijk, Dick; Koopman, Siem Jan; Wel, Michel van der

    2014-01-01

    We consider forecasting the term structure of interest rates with the assumption that factors driving the yield curve are stationary around a slowly time-varying mean or ‘shifting endpoint’. The shifting endpoints are captured using either (i) time series methods (exponential smoothing) or (ii......) long-range survey forecasts of either interest rates or inflation and output growth, or (iii) exponentially smoothed realizations of these macro variables. Allowing for shifting endpoints in yield curve factors provides substantial and significant gains in out-of-sample predictive accuracy, relative...... to stationary and random walk benchmarks. Forecast improvements are largest for long-maturity interest rates and for long-horizon forecasts....

  13. Exposure Forecaster

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Exposure Forecaster Database (ExpoCastDB) is EPA's database for aggregating chemical exposure information and can be used to help with chemical exposure...

  14. Strategic Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this article is to present an overview of the area of strategic forecasting and its research directions and to put forward some ideas for improving management decisions. Design/methodology/approach: This article is conceptual but also informed by the author’s long contact...... and collaboration with various business firms. It starts by presenting an overview of the area and argues that the area is as much a way of thinking as a toolbox of theories and methodologies. It then spells out a number of research directions and ideas for management. Findings: Strategic forecasting is seen...... as a rebirth of long range planning, albeit with new methods and theories. Firms should make the building of strategic forecasting capability a priority. Research limitations/implications: The article subdivides strategic forecasting into three research avenues and suggests avenues for further research efforts...

  15. Maturity Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lasrado, Lester Allan; Vatrapu, Ravi

    2016-01-01

    Recent advancements in set theory and readily available software have enabled social science researchers to bridge the variable-centered quantitative and case-based qualitative methodological paradigms in order to analyze multi-dimensional associations beyond the linearity assumptions, aggregate...... effects, unicausal reduction, and case specificity. Based on the developments in set theoretical thinking in social sciences and employing methods like Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA), Necessary Condition Analysis (NCA), and set visualization techniques, in this position paper, we propose...... and demonstrate a new approach to maturity models in the domain of Information Systems. This position paper describes the set-theoretical approach to maturity models, presents current results and outlines future research work....

  16. Energy demand forecasting method based on international statistical data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glanc, Z.; Kerner, A.

    1997-01-01

    Poland is in a transition phase from a centrally planned to a market economy; data collected under former economic conditions do not reflect a market economy. Final energy demand forecasts are based on the assumption that the economic transformation in Poland will gradually lead the Polish economy, technologies and modes of energy use, to the same conditions as mature market economy countries. The starting point has a significant influence on the future energy demand and supply structure: final energy consumption per capita in 1992 was almost half the average of OECD countries; energy intensity, based on Purchasing Power Parities (PPP) and referred to GDP, is more than 3 times higher in Poland. A method of final energy demand forecasting based on regression analysis is described in this paper. The input data are: output of macroeconomic and population growth forecast; time series 1970-1992 of OECD countries concerning both macroeconomic characteristics and energy consumption; and energy balance of Poland for the base year of the forecast horizon. (author). 1 ref., 19 figs, 4 tabs

  17. Energy demand forecasting method based on international statistical data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Glanc, Z; Kerner, A [Energy Information Centre, Warsaw (Poland)

    1997-09-01

    Poland is in a transition phase from a centrally planned to a market economy; data collected under former economic conditions do not reflect a market economy. Final energy demand forecasts are based on the assumption that the economic transformation in Poland will gradually lead the Polish economy, technologies and modes of energy use, to the same conditions as mature market economy countries. The starting point has a significant influence on the future energy demand and supply structure: final energy consumption per capita in 1992 was almost half the average of OECD countries; energy intensity, based on Purchasing Power Parities (PPP) and referred to GDP, is more than 3 times higher in Poland. A method of final energy demand forecasting based on regression analysis is described in this paper. The input data are: output of macroeconomic and population growth forecast; time series 1970-1992 of OECD countries concerning both macroeconomic characteristics and energy consumption; and energy balance of Poland for the base year of the forecast horizon. (author). 1 ref., 19 figs, 4 tabs.

  18. Forecasting metal prices: Do forecasters herd?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pierdzioch, C.; Rulke, J. C.; Stadtmann, G.

    2013-01-01

    We analyze more than 20,000 forecasts of nine metal prices at four different forecast horizons. We document that forecasts are heterogeneous and report that anti-herding appears to be a source of this heterogeneity. Forecaster anti-herding reflects strategic interactions among forecasters...

  19. The Necessity of Formation of Health Information Technology: Goals and Strategies for the Future of the Healthcare with the Approach of Maturity Assessment and Risk Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hossein Moinzad

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the goal of the effort is to determine the future of healthcare and to explain the importance of establishing strategic roadmap in this area. Identification of strategies for future of healthcare includes adaptive and dynamic learning through the industry, governments, and universities. The most important part in generating strategies is to determine the goals with high levels expectations and exclusive path. Healthcare technology goals which are presented in this paper could be inspiring to make a better future. Future developments of medical and health care depend on investing in research, development, and education today. So that health managers achieve goals of the health care system by making appropriate decisions and allocate resources. With appropriate goals and strategies, risk, maturity and reliability level of HIT system could be calculated by using COBIT and best scorecard (BSC method.

  20. Adapting a Markov Monte Carlo simulation model for forecasting the number of Coronary Artery Revascularisation Procedures in an era of rapidly changing technology and policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Knuiman Matthew

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Treatments for coronary heart disease (CHD have evolved rapidly over the last 15 years with considerable change in the number and effectiveness of both medical and surgical treatments. This period has seen the rapid development and uptake of statin drugs and coronary artery revascularization procedures (CARPs that include Coronary Artery Bypass Graft procedures (CABGs and Percutaneous Coronary Interventions (PCIs. It is difficult in an era of such rapid change to accurately forecast requirements for treatment services such as CARPs. In a previous paper we have described and outlined the use of a Markov Monte Carlo simulation model for analyzing and predicting the requirements for CARPs for the population of Western Australia (Mannan et al, 2007. In this paper, we expand on the use of this model for forecasting CARPs in Western Australia with a focus on the lack of adequate performance of the (standard model for forecasting CARPs in a period during the mid 1990s when there were considerable changes to CARP technology and implementation policy and an exploration and demonstration of how the standard model may be adapted to achieve better performance. Methods Selected key CARP event model probabilities are modified based on information relating to changes in the effectiveness of CARPs from clinical trial evidence and an awareness of trends in policy and practice of CARPs. These modified model probabilities and the ones obtained by standard methods are used as inputs in our Markov simulation model. Results The projected numbers of CARPs in the population of Western Australia over 1995–99 only improve marginally when modifications to model probabilities are made to incorporate an increase in effectiveness of PCI procedures. However, the projected numbers improve substantially when, in addition, further modifications are incorporated that relate to the increased probability of a PCI procedure and the reduced probability of a CABG

  1. Adapting a Markov Monte Carlo simulation model for forecasting the number of coronary artery revascularisation procedures in an era of rapidly changing technology and policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mannan, Haider R; Knuiman, Matthew; Hobbs, Michael

    2008-06-25

    Treatments for coronary heart disease (CHD) have evolved rapidly over the last 15 years with considerable change in the number and effectiveness of both medical and surgical treatments. This period has seen the rapid development and uptake of statin drugs and coronary artery revascularization procedures (CARPs) that include Coronary Artery Bypass Graft procedures (CABGs) and Percutaneous Coronary Interventions (PCIs). It is difficult in an era of such rapid change to accurately forecast requirements for treatment services such as CARPs. In a previous paper we have described and outlined the use of a Markov Monte Carlo simulation model for analyzing and predicting the requirements for CARPs for the population of Western Australia (Mannan et al, 2007). In this paper, we expand on the use of this model for forecasting CARPs in Western Australia with a focus on the lack of adequate performance of the (standard) model for forecasting CARPs in a period during the mid 1990s when there were considerable changes to CARP technology and implementation policy and an exploration and demonstration of how the standard model may be adapted to achieve better performance. Selected key CARP event model probabilities are modified based on information relating to changes in the effectiveness of CARPs from clinical trial evidence and an awareness of trends in policy and practice of CARPs. These modified model probabilities and the ones obtained by standard methods are used as inputs in our Markov simulation model. The projected numbers of CARPs in the population of Western Australia over 1995-99 only improve marginally when modifications to model probabilities are made to incorporate an increase in effectiveness of PCI procedures. However, the projected numbers improve substantially when, in addition, further modifications are incorporated that relate to the increased probability of a PCI procedure and the reduced probability of a CABG procedure stemming from changed CARP preference

  2. Game Maturity Model for Health Care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Boer, Jan C; Adriani, Paul; van Houwelingen, Jan Willem; Geerts, A

    2016-04-01

    This article introduces the Game Maturity Model for the healthcare industry as an extension to the general Game Maturity Model and describes the usage by two case studies of applied health games. The Game Maturity Model for healthcare provides a practical and value-adding method to assess existing games and to determine strategic considerations for application of applied health games. Our forecast is that within 5 years the use and development of applied games will have a role in our daily lives and the way we organize health care that will be similar to the role social media has today.

  3. A mature industrial solution for ITER divertor plasma facing components: hypervapotron cooling concept adapted to Tore Supra flat tile technology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Escourbiac, F.; Missirlian, M.; Schlosser, J. [Association EURATOM-CEA Cadarache, Departement de Recherches sur la Fusion Controlee, 13 - Saint Paul lez Durance (France); Bobin-Vastra, I. [AREVA Centre Technique de Framatome, 71 - Le Creusot (France); Kuznetsov, V. [Efremov Institute, Doroga na Metallostroy, St. Petersburg (Russian Federation); Schedler, B. [Plansee AG, Reutte (Austria)

    2004-07-01

    The use of flat tile technology to handle heat fluxes in the range of 20 MW/m{sup 2} with components relevant for fusion experiment applications is technically possible with the hypervapotron cooling concept. This paper deals with recent high heat flux performances operated with success on 2 identical mock-ups, based on this concept, that were tested in 2 different electron gun facilities. Each mock-up consisted of a CuCrZr heat sink armored with 25 flat tiles of the 3D carbon fibre composite material SEPcarb NS31 assembled with pure copper by active metal casting (AMC). The AMC tiles were electron beam welded on the CuCrZr bar, fins and slots on the neutral beam JET design were machined into the bar, then the bar was closed with a thick CuCrZr rear plug including hydraulic connections then the bar was electron beam welded onto the sidewalls. The testing results show that full ITER design specifications were achieved with margins, the critical heat flux limit was even higher than 30 MW/m{sup 2}. These results highlight the high potential of this technology for ITER divertor application.

  4. A mature industrial solution for ITER divertor plasma facing components: hypervapotron cooling concept adapted to Tore Supra flat tile technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Escourbiac, F.; Missirlian, M.; Schlosser, J.; Bobin-Vastra, I.; Kuznetsov, V.; Schedler, B.

    2004-01-01

    The use of flat tile technology to handle heat fluxes in the range of 20 MW/m 2 with components relevant for fusion experiment applications is technically possible with the hypervapotron cooling concept. This paper deals with recent high heat flux performances operated with success on 2 identical mock-ups, based on this concept, that were tested in 2 different electron gun facilities. Each mock-up consisted of a CuCrZr heat sink armored with 25 flat tiles of the 3D carbon fibre composite material SEPcarb NS31 assembled with pure copper by active metal casting (AMC). The AMC tiles were electron beam welded on the CuCrZr bar, fins and slots on the neutral beam JET design were machined into the bar, then the bar was closed with a thick CuCrZr rear plug including hydraulic connections then the bar was electron beam welded onto the sidewalls. The testing results show that full ITER design specifications were achieved with margins, the critical heat flux limit was even higher than 30 MW/m 2 . These results highlight the high potential of this technology for ITER divertor application

  5. Conformal Ablative Thermal Protection System for Planetary and Human Exploration Missions:An Overview of the Technology Maturation Effort

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, Robin A S.; Arnold, James O.; Gasch, Matthew J.; Stackpoole, Margaret M.; Prabhu, Dinesh K.; Szalai, Christine E.; Wercinski, Paul F.; Venkatapathy, Ethiraj

    2013-01-01

    The Office of Chief Technologist, NASA identified the need for research and technology development in part from NASAs Strategic Goal 3.3 of the NASA Strategic Plan to develop and demonstrate the critical technologies that will make NASAs exploration, science, and discovery missions more affordable and more capable. Furthermore, the Game Changing Development Program is a primary avenue to achieve the Agencys 2011 strategic goal to Create the innovative new space technologies for our exploration, science, and economic future. The National Research Council (NRC) Space Technology Roadmaps and Priorities report highlights six challenges and they are: Mass to Surface, Surface Access, Precision Landing, Surface Hazard Detection and Avoidance, Safety and Mission Assurance, and Affordability. In order for NASA to meet these challenges, the report recommends immediate focus on Rigid and Flexible Thermal Protection Systems. Rigid TPS systems such as Avcoat or SLA are honeycomb based and PICA is in the form of tiles. The honeycomb systems are manufactured using techniques that require filling of each (38 cell) by hand, and in a limited amount of time all of the cells must be filled and the heatshield must be cured. The tile systems such as PICA pose a different challenge as the low strain-to-failure and manufacturing size limitations require large number of small tiles with gap-fillers between the tiles. Recent investments in flexible ablative systems have given rise to the potential for conformal ablative TPS. A conformal TPS over a rigid aeroshell has the potential to solve a number of challenges faced by traditional rigid TPS materials. The high strain-to-failure nature of the conformal ablative materials will allow integration of the TPS with the underlying aeroshell structure much easier and enable monolithic-like configuration and larger segments (or parts) to be used. By reducing the overall part count, the cost of installation (based on cost comparisons between blanket

  6. Full-Scale Testing Technology Maturation Of A Thin Film Evaporator For High-Level Liquid Waste Management At Hanford - 12125

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tedeschi, A.R.; Corbett, J.E.; Wilson, R.A.; Larkin, J.

    2012-01-01

    Simulant testing of a full-scale thin-film evaporator system was conducted in 2011 for technology development at the Hanford tank farms. Test results met objectives of water removal rate, effluent quality, and operational evaluation. Dilute tank waste simulant, representing a typical double-shell tank supernatant liquid layer, was concentrated from a 1.1 specific gravity to approximately 1.5 using a 4.6 m 2 (50 ft 2 ) heated transfer area Rototherm(reg s ign) evaporator from Artisan Industries. The condensed evaporator vapor stream was collected and sampled validating efficient separation of the water. An overall decontamination factor of 1.2E+06 was achieved demonstrating excellent retention of key radioactive species within the concentrated liquid stream. The evaporator system was supported by a modular steam supply, chiller, and control computer systems which would be typically implemented at the tank farms. Operation of these support systems demonstrated successful integration while identifying areas for efficiency improvement. Overall testing effort increased the maturation of this technology to support final deployment design and continued project implementation.

  7. Applied Technologies and Prospects of Conformance Control Treatments in China Technologies et perspectives pour l’amélioration du profil de balayage dans les champs pétroliers matures produits par injection d’eau en Chine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liu Yuzhang

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available China is the largest user of chemical-based conformance control treatments and a series of technologies have been successfully developed and deployed in recent years. This paper first shows the milestones of development and application of conformance control technologies in China. Then integrated conformance control technologies are reviewed followed by the lessons we have learned, and then a few major specific conformance control technologies are addressed, including tracer injection and channels explanation, potentiometric testing to identify areal sweep efficiency, Pressure Index (PI decisionmaking technology to select well candidate, complementary decision-making technology to select well candidate and design application parameters, and major chemicals for in-depth fluid diversion technologies. In addition, this paper also describes the principles and applications of some promising technologies of combined chemical-based conformance treatment with other EOR/IOR process, including the combination technology of surfactant and water shutoff, profile control and mini-scale surfactant flooding, acid treatment and profile control treatment. Finally, this paper summarizes the problems and challenges faced by mature water flooded oilfields in China. Based on recent well tests, tracer testing and interpretation, and previous water control treatment experience, it appears that channels or high permeability streaks are common in mature water flooded oilfields. Some research directions and promising technologies are suggested. La Chine est le plus grand utilisateur de méthodes chimiques pour l’amélioration du profil de balayage de l’eau pour l’exploitation des champs pétroliers matures. Toute une série de technologies y ont d’ailleurs été créées et déployées avec succès ces dernières années. Cet article commence par présenter les étapes du développement et de la mise en place de ces technologies de contrôle de profil en Chine

  8. Electrical Load Survey and Forecast for a Decentralized Hybrid ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Electrical Load Survey and Forecast for a Decentralized Hybrid Power System at Elebu, Kwara State, Nigeria. ... Nigerian Journal of Technology ... The paper reports the results of electrical load demand and forecast for Elebu rural community ...

  9. Funding of energy research: BMFT expenditures for energy research and energy technologies, 3rd program, a review and a forecast

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacke, S.

    1990-01-01

    Between the early sixties and late 1989, the German Federal Government spent some DM 23 billion to support research and development of the entire field of nuclear technology (such as fundamental research, industrial applications, medicine, safety technology, advanced energy systems) in the Federal Republic of Germany. Of this amount, approx. DM 11 billion was spent on the technology of nuclear power plants equipped with light water reactors, on safety research, and on the nuclear fuel cycle. Comparing the expenditures of the Federal Government for the conversion of nuclear power into electricity with the savings achieved in electricity generating costs of approx. DM 58 billion by late 1989 (the cost advantage of nuclear power being approx. Pf 5/kWh), one arrives at a cost advantage to the whole economy of approx. DM 47 billion by the date shown above; by the year 2000, this advantage will have risen to some DM 150 billion. (orig.) [de

  10. kosh Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kpdt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kewr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kiso Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kpga Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kbkw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. ktcl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. pgwt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kpsp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kbih Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kdnl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kart Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kilm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kpne Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kabi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. ptpn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kblf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. panc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kpbi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kgdv Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kcmx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

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  1. klws Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kotm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. khqm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kabr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. klal Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kelp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kecg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. khbg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kpbf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. konp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. pkwa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. ktvf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. paga Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. khks Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kdsm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kpsm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kgrb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kgmu Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. papg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kbgm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. pamc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. klrd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. ksan Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. patk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kowb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. klru Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kfxe Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kjct Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kcrg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. paaq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kaex Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. klbx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kmia Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kpit Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kcrw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. paen Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kast Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kuin Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kmht Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kcys Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kflo Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. pakn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. pabt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. krdg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. khdn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kjac Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kphx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. Robust forecast comparison

    OpenAIRE

    Jin, Sainan; Corradi, Valentina; Swanson, Norman

    2015-01-01

    Forecast accuracy is typically measured in terms of a given loss function. However, as a consequence of the use of misspecified models in multiple model comparisons, relative forecast rankings are loss function dependent. This paper addresses this issue by using a novel criterion for forecast evaluation which is based on the entire distribution of forecast errors. We introduce the concepts of general-loss (GL) forecast superiority and convex-loss (CL) forecast superiority, and we establish a ...

  9. Forecaster Behaviour and Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts

    OpenAIRE

    Roy Batchelor

    2007-01-01

    This paper documents the presence of systematic bias in the real GDP and inflation forecasts of private sector forecasters in the G7 economies in the years 1990–2005. The data come from the monthly Consensus Economics forecasting service, and bias is measured and tested for significance using parametric fixed effect panel regressions and nonparametric tests on accuracy ranks. We examine patterns across countries and forecasters to establish whether the bias reflects the inefficient use of i...

  10. Weather forecast

    CERN Document Server

    Courtier, P

    1994-02-07

    Weather prediction is performed using the numerical model of the atmosphere evolution.The evolution equations are derived from the Navier Stokes equation for the adiabatic part but the are very much complicated by the change of phase of water, the radiation porocess and the boundary layer.The technique used operationally is described. Weather prediction is an initial value problem and accurate initial conditions need to be specified. Due to the small number of observations available (105 ) as compared to the dimension of the model state variable (107),the problem is largely underdetermined. Techniques of optimal control and inverse problems are used and have been adapted to the large dimension of our problem. our problem.The at mosphere is a chaotic system; the implication for weather prediction is discussed. Ensemble prediction is used operationally and the technique for generating initial conditions which lead to a numerical divergence of the subsequent forecasts is described.

  11. Analysis of the development and diffusion of technological innovations in oil spill forecasting: The MEDESS-4MS case

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcati, Alberto; Prete, M. Irene; Mileti, Antonio; Cortese, Mario; Zodiatis, George; Karaolia, Andria; Gauci, Adam; Drago, Aldo

    2016-11-01

    This paper presents a case study on the management of users' engagement in the development of a new technology. Based on the experience of MEDESS-4MS, an integrated operational model for oil spill Decision Support System covering the whole Mediterranean Sea, the case study is aimed at the development of a framework for user engagement and for the management of its dual logic. Indeed, users may play a dual role in the innovation process, contributing to both the design of the innovation and its promotion. Users contribute to shaping the innovation, by aggregating and integrating knowledge, and they facilitate its diffusion, by adopting the innovation and fostering its adoption within the socio-economic system.

  12. Maturity Models Development in IS Research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lasrado, Lester Allan; Vatrapu, Ravi; Andersen, Kim Normann

    2015-01-01

    Maturity models are widespread in IS research and in particular, IT practitioner communities. However, theoretically sound, methodologically rigorous and empirically validated maturity models are quite rare. This literature review paper focuses on the challenges faced during the development...... literature reveals that researchers have primarily focused on developing new maturity models pertaining to domain-specific problems and/or new enterprise technologies. We find rampant re-use of the design structure of widely adopted models such as Nolan’s Stage of Growth Model, Crosby’s Grid, and Capability...... Maturity Model (CMM). Only recently have there been some research efforts to standardize maturity model development. We also identify three dominant views of maturity models and provide guidelines for various approaches of constructing maturity models with a standard vocabulary. We finally propose using...

  13. A maturity model for blockchain adoption

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Huaiqing; Chen, Kun; Xu, Dongming

    2016-01-01

    Background: The rapid development of the blockchain technology and its various applications has rendered it important to understand the guidelines for adopting it. Methods: The comparative analysis method is used to analyze different dimensions of the maturity model, which is mainly based on the commonly used capability maturity model. Results: The blockchain maturity model and its adoption process have been discussed and presented. Conclusions: This study serves as a guide to institutions to...

  14. National Forecast Charts

    Science.gov (United States)

    code. Press enter or select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" or Prediction Center on Twitter NCEP Quarterly Newsletter WPC Home Analyses and Forecasts National Forecast to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services. National Forecast Charts

  15. Are Forecast Updates Progressive?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractMacro-economic forecasts typically involve both a model component, which is replicable, as well as intuition, which is non-replicable. Intuition is expert knowledge possessed by a forecaster. If forecast updates are progressive, forecast updates should become more accurate, on average,

  16. Forecasting freight flows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyk-Jensen, Stéphanie

    2011-01-01

    Trade patterns and transport markets are changing as a result of the growth and globalization of international trade, and forecasting future freight flow has to rely on trade forecasts. Forecasting freight flows is critical for matching infrastructure supply to demand and for assessing investment...... constitute a valuable input to freight models for forecasting future capacity problems.......Trade patterns and transport markets are changing as a result of the growth and globalization of international trade, and forecasting future freight flow has to rely on trade forecasts. Forecasting freight flows is critical for matching infrastructure supply to demand and for assessing investment...

  17. Rover Technologies

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Develop and mature rover technologies supporting robotic exploration including rover design, controlling rovers over time delay and for exploring . Technology...

  18. Flood forecasting and uncertainty of precipitation forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kobold, Mira; Suselj, Kay

    2004-01-01

    The timely and accurate flood forecasting is essential for the reliable flood warning. The effectiveness of flood warning is dependent on the forecast accuracy of certain physical parameters, such as the peak magnitude of the flood, its timing, location and duration. The conceptual rainfall - runoff models enable the estimation of these parameters and lead to useful operational forecasts. The accurate rainfall is the most important input into hydrological models. The input for the rainfall can be real time rain-gauges data, or weather radar data, or meteorological forecasted precipitation. The torrential nature of streams and fast runoff are characteristic for the most of the Slovenian rivers. Extensive damage is caused almost every year- by rainstorms affecting different regions of Slovenia' The lag time between rainfall and runoff is very short for Slovenian territory and on-line data are used only for now casting. Forecasted precipitations are necessary for hydrological forecast for some days ahead. ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) gives general forecast for several days ahead while more detailed precipitation data with limited area ALADIN/Sl model are available for two days ahead. There is a certain degree of uncertainty using such precipitation forecasts based on meteorological models. The variability of precipitation is very high in Slovenia and the uncertainty of ECMWF predicted precipitation is very large for Slovenian territory. ECMWF model can predict precipitation events correctly, but underestimates amount of precipitation in general The average underestimation is about 60% for Slovenian region. The predictions of limited area ALADIN/Si model up to; 48 hours ahead show greater applicability in hydrological forecasting. The hydrological models are sensitive to precipitation input. The deviation of runoff is much bigger than the rainfall deviation. Runoff to rainfall error fraction is about 1.6. If spatial and time distribution

  19. Maturity and maturity models in lean construction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claus Nesensohn

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available In recent years there has been an increasing interest in maturity models in management-related disciplines; which reflects a growing recognition that becoming more mature and having a model to guide the route to maturity can help organisations in managing major transformational change. Lean Construction (LC is an increasingly important improvement approach that organisations seek to embed. This study explores how to apply the maturity models to LC. Hence the attitudes, opinions and experiences of key industry informants with high levels of knowledge of LC were investigated. To achieve this, a review of maturity models was conducted, and data for the analysis was collected through a sequential process involving three methods. First a group interview with seven key informants. Second a follow up discussion with the same individuals to investigate some of the issues raised in more depth. Third an online discussion held via LinkedIn in which members shared their views on some of the results. Overall, we found that there is a lack of common understanding as to what maturity means in LC, though there is general agreement that the concept of maturity is a suitable one to reflect the path of evolution for LC within organisations.

  20. Slab replacement maturity guidelines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-04-01

    This study investigated the use of maturity method to determine early age strength of concrete in slab : replacement application. Specific objectives were (1) to evaluate effects of various factors on the compressive : maturity-strength relationship ...

  1. Demand forecast model based on CRM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Yuancui; Chen, Lichao

    2006-11-01

    With interiorizing day by day management thought that regarding customer as the centre, forecasting customer demand becomes more and more important. In the demand forecast of customer relationship management, the traditional forecast methods have very great limitation because much uncertainty of the demand, these all require new modeling to meet the demands of development. In this paper, the notion is that forecasting the demand according to characteristics of the potential customer, then modeling by it. The model first depicts customer adopting uniform multiple indexes. Secondly, the model acquires characteristic customers on the basis of data warehouse and the technology of data mining. The last, there get the most similar characteristic customer by their comparing and forecast the demands of new customer by the most similar characteristic customer.

  2. FORECASTING NEW PRODUCT SALES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Siriram

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This paper tests the accuracy of using Linear regression, Logistics regression, and Bass curves in selected new product rollouts, based on sales data. The selected new products come from the electronics and electrical engineering and information and communications technology industries. The eight selected products are: electronic switchgear, electric motors, supervisory control and data acquisition systems, programmable logic controllers, cell phones, wireless modules, routers, and antennas. We compare the Linear regression, Logistics regression and Bass curves with respect to forecasting using analysis of variance. The accuracy of these three curves is studied and conclusions are drawn. We use an expert panel to compare the different curves and provide lessons for managers to improve forecasting new product sales. In addition, comparison between the two industries is drawn, and areas for further research are indicated.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie artikel toets die akkuraatheid van die gebruik van linêere regressie, logistiese regressie en Bass-krommes by die bekendstelling van nuwe produkte gebaseer op verkoopsdata. Die geselekteerde nuwe produkte is uit die elektriese en elektroniese asook informasietegnologie- en kommunikasie bedrywe. Linêere regressie, logistiese regressie en Bass-krommes word vergelyk ten opsigte van vooruitskatting deur variansie te ontleed. Die akkuraatheid word ontleed en gevolgtrekkings gemaak. Die doel is om vooruitskatting van nuwe produkverkope te verbeter.

  3. Issues in Forecasting CMEs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pizzo, V. J.

    2017-12-01

    I will present my view of the current status of space weather forecasting abilities related to CMEs. This talk will address the large-scale aspects, but specifically not energetic particle phenomena. A key point is that all models, whether sophisticated numerical contraptions or quasi-empirical ones, are only as good as the data you feed them. Hence the emphasis will be on observations and analysis methods. First I will review where we stand with regard to the near-Sun quantitative data needed to drive any model, no matter how complex or simple-minded, and I will discuss technological roadblocks that suggest it may be some time before we see any meaningful improvements beyond what we have today. Then I cover issues related to characterizing CME propagation out through the corona and into interplanetary space, as well as to observational limitations in the vicinity of 1 AU. Since none of these observational constraints are likely to be resolved anytime soon, the real challenge is to make more informed use of what is available. Thus, this talk will focus on how we may identify and pursue the most profitable approaches, for both forecast and research applications. The discussion will highlight a number of promising leads, including those related to inclusion of solar backside information, joint magnetograph observations from L5 and Earth, how to use (not just run) ensembles, more rational use of HI observations, and suggestions for using cube-sats for deep space observations of CMEs and MCs.

  4. Fuel cycle forecasting - there are forecasts and there are forecasts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Puechl, K H

    1975-12-01

    The FORECAST-NUCLEAR computer program described recognizes that forecasts are made to answer a variety of questions and, therefore, that no single forecast is universally appropriate. Also, it recognizes that no two individuals will completely agree as to the input data that are appropriate for obtaining an answer to even a single simple question. Accordingly, the program was written from a utilitarian standpoint: it allows working with multiple projections; data inputting is simple to allow game-playing; computation time is short to minimize the cost of 'what if' assessements; and detail is internally carried to allow meaningful analysis.

  5. Fuel cycle forecasting - there are forecasts and there are forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Puechl, K.H.

    1975-01-01

    The FORECAST-NUCLEAR computer program described recognizes that forecasts are made to answer a variety of questions and, therefore, that no single forecast is universally appropriate. Also, it recognizes that no two individuals will completely agree as to the input data that are appropriate for obtaining an answer to even a single simple question. Accordingly, the program was written from a utilitarian standpoint: it allows working with multiple projections; data inputting is simple to allow game-playing; computation time is short to minimize the cost of 'what if' assessements; and detail is internally carried to allow meaningful analysis. (author)

  6. Forecasting in Complex Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Graves, W. R.; Turcotte, D. L.; Donnellan, A.

    2014-12-01

    Complex nonlinear systems are typically characterized by many degrees of freedom, as well as interactions between the elements. Interesting examples can be found in the areas of earthquakes and finance. In these two systems, fat tails play an important role in the statistical dynamics. For earthquake systems, the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency is applicable, whereas for daily returns for the securities in the financial markets are known to be characterized by leptokurtotic statistics in which the tails are power law. Very large fluctuations are present in both systems. In earthquake systems, one has the example of great earthquakes such as the M9.1, March 11, 2011 Tohoku event. In financial systems, one has the example of the market crash of October 19, 1987. Both were largely unexpected events that severely impacted the earth and financial systems systemically. Other examples include the M9.3 Andaman earthquake of December 26, 2004, and the Great Recession which began with the fall of Lehman Brothers investment bank on September 12, 2013. Forecasting the occurrence of these damaging events has great societal importance. In recent years, national funding agencies in a variety of countries have emphasized the importance of societal relevance in research, and in particular, the goal of improved forecasting technology. Previous work has shown that both earthquakes and financial crashes can be described by a common Landau-Ginzburg-type free energy model. These metastable systems are characterized by fat tail statistics near the classical spinodal. Correlations in these systems can grow and recede, but do not imply causation, a common source of misunderstanding. In both systems, a common set of techniques can be used to compute the probabilities of future earthquakes or crashes. In this talk, we describe the basic phenomenology of these systems and emphasize their similarities and differences. We also consider the problem of forecast validation and verification

  7. Robust Approaches to Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Jennifer Castle; David Hendry; Michael P. Clements

    2014-01-01

    We investigate alternative robust approaches to forecasting, using a new class of robust devices, contrasted with equilibrium correction models. Their forecasting properties are derived facing a range of likely empirical problems at the forecast origin, including measurement errors, implulses, omitted variables, unanticipated location shifts and incorrectly included variables that experience a shift. We derive the resulting forecast biases and error variances, and indicate when the methods ar...

  8. Inflation Forecast Contracts

    OpenAIRE

    Gersbach, Hans; Hahn, Volker

    2012-01-01

    We introduce a new type of incentive contract for central bankers: inflation forecast contracts, which make central bankers’ remunerations contingent on the precision of their inflation forecasts. We show that such contracts enable central bankers to influence inflation expectations more effectively, thus facilitating more successful stabilization of current inflation. Inflation forecast contracts improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts, but have adverse consequences for output. On balanc...

  9. Spatiotemporal drought forecasting using nonlinear models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasiliades, Lampros; Loukas, Athanasios

    2010-05-01

    Spatiotemporal data mining is the extraction of unknown and implicit knowledge, structures, spatiotemporal relationships, or patterns not explicitly stored in spatiotemporal databases. As one of data mining techniques, forecasting is widely used to predict the unknown future based upon the patterns hidden in the current and past data. In order to achieve spatiotemporal forecasting, some mature analysis tools, e.g., time series and spatial statistics are extended to the spatial dimension and the temporal dimension, respectively. Drought forecasting plays an important role in the planning and management of natural resources and water resource systems in a river basin. Early and timelines forecasting of a drought event can help to take proactive measures and set out drought mitigation strategies to alleviate the impacts of drought. Despite the widespread application of nonlinear mathematical models, comparative studies on spatiotemporal drought forecasting using different models are still a huge task for modellers. This study uses a promising approach, the Gamma Test (GT), to select the input variables and the training data length, so that the trial and error workload could be greatly reduced. The GT enables to quickly evaluate and estimate the best mean squared error that can be achieved by a smooth model on any unseen data for a given selection of inputs, prior to model construction. The GT is applied to forecast droughts using monthly Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) timeseries at multiple timescales in several precipitation stations at Pinios river basin in Thessaly region, Greece. Several nonlinear models have been developed efficiently, with the aid of the GT, for 1-month up to 12-month ahead forecasting. Several temporal and spatial statistical indices were considered for the performance evaluation of the models. The predicted results show reasonably good agreement with the actual data for short lead times, whereas the forecasting accuracy decreases with

  10. Electricity demand forecasting techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gnanalingam, K.

    1994-01-01

    Electricity demand forecasting plays an important role in power generation. The two areas of data that have to be forecasted in a power system are peak demand which determines the capacity (MW) of the plant required and annual energy demand (GWH). Methods used in electricity demand forecasting include time trend analysis and econometric methods. In forecasting, identification of manpower demand, identification of key planning factors, decision on planning horizon, differentiation between prediction and projection (i.e. development of different scenarios) and choosing from different forecasting techniques are important

  11. Spatial electric load forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Willis, H Lee

    2002-01-01

    Containing 12 new chapters, this second edition contains offers increased-coverage of weather correction and normalization of forecasts, anticipation of redevelopment, determining the validity of announced developments, and minimizing risk from over- or under-planning. It provides specific examples and detailed explanations of key points to consider for both standard and unusual utility forecasting situations, information on new algorithms and concepts in forecasting, a review of forecasting pitfalls and mistakes, case studies depicting challenging forecast environments, and load models illustrating various types of demand.

  12. A PACS maturity model: a systematic meta-analytic review on maturation and evolvability of PACS in the hospital enterprise.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wetering, R. van de; Batenburg, R.

    2009-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: With PACS and medical imaging technology maturing, the importance of organizational maturity and effective deployment of PACS in the hospital enterprise are becoming significant. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this paper is twofold. Firstly, PACS literature on maturity and evolvability in

  13. ORGANIZATIONAL PROJECT MANAGEMENT MATURITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yana Derenskaya

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The present article is aimed at developing a set of recommendations for achieving a higher level of organizational project maturity at a given enterprise. Methodology. For the purposes of the current research, the available information sources on the components of project management system are analysed; the essence of “organizational maturity” and the existing models of organizational maturity are studied. The method of systemic and structural analysis, as well as the method of logical generalization, are employed in order to study the existing models of organizational maturity, to describe levels of organizational maturity, and finally to develop a set of methodological recommendations for achieving a higher level of organizational project maturity at a given enterprise. The results of the research showed that the core elements of project management system are methodological, organizational, programtechnical, and motivational components. Project management encompasses a wide range of issues connected with organizational structure, project team, communication management, project participants, etc. However, the fundamental basis for developing project management concept within a given enterprise starts with defining its level of organizational maturity. The present paper describes various models of organizational maturity (staged, continuous, petal-shaped and their common types (H. Кеrzner Organizational Maturity Model, Berkeley PM Maturity Model, Organizational Project Management Maturity Model, Portfolio, Program & Project Management Maturity Model. The analysis of available theoretic works showed that the notion “organizational project maturity” refers to the capability of an enterprise to select projects and manage them with the intention of achieving its strategic goals in the most effective way. Importantly, the level of maturity can be improved by means of formalizing the acquired knowledge, regulating project-related activities

  14. The case for better PV forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alet, Pierre-Jean; Efthymiou, Venizelos; Graditi, Giorgio

    2016-01-01

    Rising levels of PV penetration mean increasingly sophisticated forecasting technologies are needed to maintain grid stability and maximise the economic value of PV systems. The Grid Integration working group of the European Technology and Innovation Platform – Photovoltaics (ETIP PV) shares the ...

  15. Six rules for accurate effective forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saffo, Paul

    2007-01-01

    The primary goal of forecasting is to identify the full range of possibilities facing a company, society, or the world at large. In this article, Saffo demythologizes the forecasting process to help executives become sophisticated and participative consumers of forecasts, rather than passive absorbers. He illustrates how to use forecasts to at once broaden understanding of possibilities and narrow the decision space within which one must exercise intuition. The events of 9/11, for example, were a much bigger surprise than they should have been. After all, airliners flown into monuments were the stuff of Tom Clancy novels in the 1990s, and everyone knew that terrorists had a very personal antipathy toward the World Trade Center. So why was 9/11 such a surprise? What can executives do to avoid being blind-sided by other such wild cards, be they radical shifts in markets or the seemingly sudden emergence of disruptive technologies? In describing what forecasters are trying to achieve, Saffo outlines six simple, commonsense rules that smart managers should observe as they embark on a voyage of discovery with professional forecasters. Map a cone of uncertainty, he advises, look for the S curve, embrace the things that don't fit, hold strong opinions weakly, look back twice as far as you look forward, and know when not to make a forecast.

  16. Inaccuracy in traffic forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, Bent; Holm, Mette K. Skamris; Buhl, Søren Ladegaard

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 210 projects in 14 nations worth US$58 billion. The study shows with very high statistical significance...... that forecasters generally do a poor job of estimating the demand for transportation infrastructure projects. The result is substantial downside financial and economic risk. Forecasts have not become more accurate over the 30-year period studied. If techniques and skills for arriving at accurate demand forecasts...... forecasting. Highly inaccurate traffic forecasts combined with large standard deviations translate into large financial and economic risks. But such risks are typically ignored or downplayed by planners and decision-makers, to the detriment of social and economic welfare. The paper presents the data...

  17. FORECASTING MODELS IN MANAGEMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Sindelar, Jiri

    2008-01-01

    This article deals with the problems of forecasting models. First part of the article is dedicated to definition of the relevant areas (vertical and horizontal pillar of definition) and then the forecasting model itself is defined; as article presents theoretical background for further primary research, this definition is crucial. Finally the position of forecasting models within the management system is identified. The paper is a part of the outputs of FEM CULS grant no. 1312/11/3121.

  18. Forecasting in Planning

    OpenAIRE

    Ike, P.; Voogd, Henk; Voogd, Henk; Linden, Gerard

    2004-01-01

    This chapter begins with a discussion of qualitative forecasting by describing a number of methods that depend on judgements made by stakeholders, experts or other interested parties to arrive at forecasts. Two qualitative approaches are illuminated, the Delphi and scenario methods respectively. Quantitative forecasting is illustrated with a brief overview of time series methods. Both qualitative and quantitative methods are illustrated by an example. The role and relative importance of forec...

  19. The strategy of professional forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ottaviani, Marco; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    2006-01-01

    We develop and compare two theories of professional forecasters’ strategic behavior. The first theory, reputational cheap talk, posits that forecasters endeavor to convince the market that they are well informed. The market evaluates their forecasting talent on the basis of the forecasts...... and the realized state. If the market expects forecasters to report their posterior expectations honestly, then forecasts are shaded toward the prior mean. With correct market expectations, equilibrium forecasts are imprecise but not shaded. The second theory posits that forecasters compete in a forecasting...... contest with pre-specified rules. In a winner-take-all contest, equilibrium forecasts are excessively differentiated...

  20. The intersections between TRIZ and forecasting methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgeta BARBULESCU

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The authors’ intention is to correlate the basic knowledge in using the TRIZ methodology (Theory of Inventive Problem Solving or in Russian: Teoriya Resheniya Izobretatelskikh Zadatch as a problem solving tools meant to help the decision makers to perform more significant forecasting exercises. The idea is to identify the TRIZ features and instruments (40 inventive principles, i.e. for putting in evidence the noise and signal problem, for trend identification (qualitative and quantitative tendencies and support tools in technological forecasting, to make the decision-makers able to refine and to increase the level of confidence in the forecasting results. The interest in connecting TRIZ to forecasting methodology, nowadays, relates to the massive application of TRIZ methods and techniques for engineering system development world-wide and in growing application of TRIZ’s concepts and paradigms for improvements of non-engineering systems (including the business and economic applications.

  1. Project in fiscal 1988 for research and development of basic technologies in next generation industries. Research and development of superconducting materials and superconducting elements (Achievement report on forecast and research of superconducting element technologies); 1988 nendo chodendo soshi gijutsu yosoku kenkyu seika hokokusho

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1989-03-01

    With an objective to perform survey and forecast on the future of superconducting elements, collection of latest technological information and analyses of technological trends were carried out by members of the Technology Forecast and Research Committee. This paper summarizes the achievements therein. It was discovered that the Josephson element using an Al{sub 2}O{sub 3} barrier and an Nb electrode shows excellent characteristics with very good reproducibility. Trial fabrication of a four-bit micro processor was recently executed successfully by the SQUID gate using the above element. On the other hand, application of devices using high-temperature superconductors has not come out with an achievement. Although a large number of achievements have been released on mono-crystalline thin films that show good characteristics, development of substrates and barrier materials is still needed for device configuration. The method for manufacturing metal-based superconducting films has been established nearly completely as an elementary technology to develop the superconducting elements. However, making thinner the high-temperature superconducting films having been discovered recently is encountering a number of inherent problems, whereas the present stage is such that experimental discussions are being made. The process technologies, simulation, and evaluation technologies are basically the same as those for the metallic systems even for the oxide superconduction. (NEDO)

  2. Net load forecasting for high renewable energy penetration grids

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaur, Amanpreet; Nonnenmacher, Lukas; Coimbra, Carlos F.M.

    2016-01-01

    We discuss methods for net load forecasting and their significance for operation and management of power grids with high renewable energy penetration. Net load forecasting is an enabling technology for the integration of microgrid fleets with the macrogrid. Net load represents the load that is traded between the grids (microgrid and utility grid). It is important for resource allocation and electricity market participation at the point of common coupling between the interconnected grids. We compare two inherently different approaches: additive and integrated net load forecast models. The proposed methodologies are validated on a microgrid with 33% annual renewable energy (solar) penetration. A heuristics based solar forecasting technique is proposed, achieving skill of 24.20%. The integrated solar and load forecasting model outperforms the additive model by 10.69% and the uncertainty range for the additive model is larger than the integrated model by 2.2%. Thus, for grid applications an integrated forecast model is recommended. We find that the net load forecast errors and the solar forecasting errors are cointegrated with a common stochastic drift. This is useful for future planning and modeling because the solar energy time-series allows to infer important features of the net load time-series, such as expected variability and uncertainty. - Highlights: • Net load forecasting methods for grids with renewable energy generation are discussed. • Integrated solar and load forecasting outperforms the additive model by 10.69%. • Net load forecasting reduces the uncertainty between the interconnected grids.

  3. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Pierdzioch

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time.

  4. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Ruelke

    2013-01-01

    We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from) t......) the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time....

  5. World Area Forecast System (WAFS)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The World Area Forecast System (WAFS) is a worldwide system by which world area forecast centers provide aeronautical meteorological en-route forecasts in uniform...

  6. Coherence between institutions and technologies - The case of mini hydropower in Switzerland

    OpenAIRE

    Crettenand, Nicolas

    2009-01-01

    Switzerland, with the forecasted electricity gap between domestic production and demand, aims to significantly increase renewable energy sources including hydropower. Mini hydropower (below 1MW) currently has considerable unused technical potential. As a renewable energy source (RES) it can contribute to climate change mitigation. CO2-taxes or emission trading systems (ETS) for planned thermal power plants could help facilitate mini hydropower (MHP). The technology is mature, but requires ade...

  7. Forecasting in Planning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ike, P.; Voogd, Henk; Voogd, Henk; Linden, Gerard

    2004-01-01

    This chapter begins with a discussion of qualitative forecasting by describing a number of methods that depend on judgements made by stakeholders, experts or other interested parties to arrive at forecasts. Two qualitative approaches are illuminated, the Delphi and scenario methods respectively.

  8. Improving Garch Volatility Forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klaassen, F.J.G.M.

    1998-01-01

    Many researchers use GARCH models to generate volatility forecasts. We show, however, that such forecasts are too variable. To correct for this, we extend the GARCH model by distinguishing two regimes with different volatility levels. GARCH effects are allowed within each regime, so that our model

  9. On density forecast evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Diks, C.

    2008-01-01

    Traditionally, probability integral transforms (PITs) have been popular means for evaluating density forecasts. For an ideal density forecast, the PITs should be uniformly distributed on the unit interval and independent. However, this is only a necessary condition, and not a sufficient one, as

  10. Forecast Accuracy Uncertainty and Momentum

    OpenAIRE

    Bing Han; Dong Hong; Mitch Warachka

    2009-01-01

    We demonstrate that stock price momentum and earnings momentum can result from uncertainty surrounding the accuracy of cash flow forecasts. Our model has multiple information sources issuing cash flow forecasts for a stock. The investor combines these forecasts into an aggregate cash flow estimate that has minimal mean-squared forecast error. This aggregate estimate weights each cash flow forecast by the estimated accuracy of its issuer, which is obtained from their past forecast errors. Mome...

  11. Maturity of the PWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bacher, P.; Rapin, M.; Aboudarham, L.; Bitsch, D.

    1983-03-01

    Figures illustrating the predominant position of the PWR system are presented. The question is whether on the basis of these figures the PWR can be considered to have reached maturity. The following analysis, based on the French program experience, is an attempt to pinpoint those areas in which industrial maturity of the PWR has been attained, and in which areas a certain evolution can still be expected to take place

  12. Demand Forecasting in the Smart Grid Paradigm: Features and Challenges

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khodayar, Mohammad E.; Wu, Hongyu

    2015-07-01

    Demand forecasting faces challenges that include a large volume of data, increasing number of factors that affect the demand profile, uncertainties in the generation profile of the distributed and renewable generation resources and lack of historical data. A hierarchical demand forecasting framework can incorporate the new technologies, customer behaviors and preferences, and environmental factors.

  13. Artificial intelligence in short term electric load forecasting: a state-of-the-art survey for the researcher

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Metaxiotis, K.; Kagiannas, A.; Askounis, D.; Psarras, J. [National Technical University of Athens, Zografou (Turkey). Dept. of Electrical and Computer Engineering

    2003-06-01

    Intelligent solutions, based on artificial intelligence (AI) technologies, to solve complicated practical problems in various sectors are becoming more and more widespread nowadays. AI-based systems are being developed and deployed worldwide in myriad applications, mainly because of their symbolic reasoning, flexibility and explanation capabilities. This paper provides an overview for the researcher of AI technologies, as well as their current use in the field of short term electric load forecasting (STELF). The history of AI in STELF is outlined, leading to a discussion of the various approaches as well as the current research directions. The paper concludes by sharing thoughts and estimations on AI future prospects in this area. This review reveals that although still regarded as a novel methodology, AI technologies are shown to have matured to the point of offering real practical benefits in many of their applications. (Author)

  14. Report on achievements in fiscal 1998. Research and development of a technology to forecast environmental effect in association with isolation of carbon dioxide in oceans. (Surveys on development and research support on a technology to forecast environmental effect in areas in the vicinity of CO2 discharging points); 1998 nendo nisanka tanso no kaiyo kakuri ni tomonau kankyo eikyo yosoku gijutsu kenkyu kaihatsu seika hokokusho. CO{sub 2} horyuten shuhen'iki no kankyo eikyo yosoku gijutsu no kaihatsu narabini kenkyu shien chosa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1999-03-01

    Atmospheric concentration of CO2 is increasing, and discussions are urged on measures to suppress emission of CO2 into atmosphere. While different CO2 fixing technologies may be conceived, there is a technology to utilize CO2 absorbing capability of ocean by discharging and dissolving CO2 artificially into middle layer of the ocean to separate CO2 from atmosphere. This technology is one of the technologies which are promising in the aspects of technology, economic performance, and possible amount of CO2 reduction. However, it is difficult to say that scientific and technological discussions have been given sufficiently on behavior of CO2 discharged into the ocean, effect of the discharge on environments, and CO2 separation capability of the ocean. Therefore, in the present research and development, a 'technology to forecast environmental effect in areas in the vicinity of CO2 discharging points' is developed to serve for acquiring technological prospect on the feasibility to realize the CO2 ocean separation by discharging CO2 into the middle layer of the ocean. The present fiscal year has performed researches on the following research and development items: elucidation of behavior of liquefied CO2 when discharged into the ocean, CO2 feeding and diluting technologies, indoor experiments on the effects of CO2 on ocean living organisms, and development of a model to forecast environments in areas in the vicinity of CO2 discharging points. (NEDO)

  15. An Investigation into Learning Organisation Maturity & The Integration of ICT into Teaching, Learning & Assessing In The Institute of Technology Sector In The Republic of Ireland

    OpenAIRE

    Murphy, Pearse

    2008-01-01

    This study is set in an era of changing management styles, shifts in the role of the educator, increasing competition, evolving student cohorts and rapidly changing modes of delivery, in the presence of change drivers such as the ubiquity of computing systems, in higher education in the Institute of Technology (IOT) sector in Ireland. The study may be described as deductive (Bryman & Bell 2007) in its approach to the examination of the alignment of practice in integrating information and ...

  16. Fluidized Bed Gasification as a Mature And Reliable Technology for the Production of Bio-Syngas and Applied in the Production of Liquid Transportation Fuels—A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrian H.M. Verkooijen

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Biomass is one of the renewable and potentially sustainable energy sources and has many possible applications varying from heat generation to the production of advanced secondary energy carriers. The latter option would allow mobile services like the transportation sector to reduce its dependency on the fossil fuel supply. This article reviews the state-of-the-art of the fluidization technology applied for the gasification of biomass aimed at the production of gas for subsequent synthesis of the liquid energy carriers via, e.g., the Fischer-Tropsch process. It discusses the advantages of the gasification technology over combustion, considers the size of the conversion plant in view of the local biomass availability, assesses the pros and cons of different gasifier types in view of the application of the product gas. Subsequently the article focuses on the fluidized bed technology to discuss the main process parameters and their influence on the product composition and the operability of the gasifier. Finally a synthesis process (FT is introduced shortly to illustrate the necessary gas cleaning steps in view of the purity requirements for the FT feed gas.

  17. Conformal Ablative Thermal Protection System for Planetary and Human Exploration Missions: Overview of the Technology Maturation Efforts Funded by NASA's Game Changing Development Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, Robin A.; Arnold, James O.; Gasch, Matthew J.; Stackpoole, Margaret M.; Fan, Wendy; Szalai, Christine E.; Wercinski, Paul F.; Venkatapathy, Ethiraj

    2012-01-01

    The Office of Chief Technologist (OCT), NASA has identified the need for research and technology development in part from NASA's Strategic Goal 3.3 of the NASA Strategic Plan to develop and demonstrate the critical technologies that will make NASA's exploration, science, and discovery missions more affordable and more capable. Furthermore, the Game Changing Development Program (GCDP) is a primary avenue to achieve the Agency's 2011 strategic goal to "Create the innovative new space technologies for our exploration, science, and economic future." In addition, recently released "NASA space Technology Roadmaps and Priorities," by the National Research Council (NRC) of the National Academy of Sciences stresses the need for NASA to invest in the very near term in specific EDL technologies. The report points out the following challenges (Page 2-38 of the pre-publication copy released on February 1, 2012): Mass to Surface: Develop the ability to deliver more payload to the destination. NASA's future missions will require ever-greater mass delivery capability in order to place scientifically significant instrument packages on distant bodies of interest, to facilitate sample returns from bodies of interest, and to enable human exploration of planets such as Mars. As the maximum mass that can be delivered to an entry interface is fixed for a given launch system and trajectory design, the mass delivered to the surface will require reduction in spacecraft structural mass; more efficient, lighter thermal protection systems; more efficient lighter propulsion systems; and lighter, more efficient deceleration systems. Surface Access: Increase the ability to land at a variety of planetary locales and at a variety of times. Access to specific sites can be achieved via landing at a specific location (s) or transit from a single designated landing location, but it is currently infeasible to transit long distances and through extremely rugged terrain, requiring landing close to the

  18. Spatial electric load forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Willis, H Lee

    2002-01-01

    Spatial Electric Load Forecasting Consumer Demand for Power and ReliabilityCoincidence and Load BehaviorLoad Curve and End-Use ModelingWeather and Electric LoadWeather Design Criteria and Forecast NormalizationSpatial Load Growth BehaviorSpatial Forecast Accuracy and Error MeasuresTrending MethodsSimulation Method: Basic ConceptsA Detailed Look at the Simulation MethodBasics of Computerized SimulationAnalytical Building Blocks for Spatial SimulationAdvanced Elements of Computerized SimulationHybrid Trending-Simulation MethodsAdvanced

  19. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-08-01

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation

  20. About the National Forecast Chart

    Science.gov (United States)

    code. Press enter or select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" or Prediction Center on Twitter NCEP Quarterly Newsletter WPC Home Analyses and Forecasts National Forecast to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services. The National Forecast Charts

  1. Long Maturity Forward Rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Charlotte

    2001-01-01

    The paper aims to improve the knowledge of the empirical properties of the long maturity region of the forward rate curve. Firstly, the theoretical negative correlation between the slope at the long end of the forward rate curve and the term structure variance is recovered empirically and found...... to be statistically significant. Secondly, the expectations hypothesis is analyzed for the long maturity region of the forward rate curve using "forward rate" regressions. The expectations hypothesis is numerically close to being accepted but is statistically rejected. The findings provide mixed support...... for the affine term structure model....

  2. Marine Point Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    will link to the zone forecast and then allow further zooming to the point of interest whereas on the Honolulu, HI Chicago, IL Northern Indiana, IN Lake Charles, LA New Orleans, LA Boston, MA Caribou, ME

  3. Socioeconomic Forecasting : [Technical Summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Because the traffic forecasts produced by the Indiana : Statewide Travel Demand Model (ISTDM) are driven by : the demographic and socioeconomic inputs to the model, : particular attention must be given to obtaining the most : accurate demographic and...

  4. NYHOPS Forecast Model Results

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — 3D Marine Nowcast/Forecast System for the New York Bight NYHOPS subdomain. Currents, waves, surface meteorology, and water conditions.

  5. Inflow forecasting at BPA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McManamon, A. [Bonneville Power Administration, Portland, OR (United States)

    2007-07-01

    The Columbia River Power System operates with consideration for flood control, endangered species, navigation, irrigation, water supply, recreation, other fish and wildlife concerns and power production. The Bonneville Power Association (BPA) located in Portland, Oregon is responsible for 35-40 per cent of the power consumed within the region. This presentation discussed inflow power concerns at BPA. The presentation illustrated elevational relief of projects; annual and daily variability; the hydrologic cycle; national river service weather forecasting service (NRSWFS); components of NRSWFS; and hydrologic forecast locations. Project operations and inventory were included along with a comparison of the 71-year average unregulated flow with regulated flow at the Dalles. Consistency between short-term and long-term forecasts and long-term streamflow forecasts were also illustrated in graphical format. The presentation also discussed the issue of reducing model and parameter uncertainty; reducing initial conditions uncertainty; snow updating; and reducing meteorological uncertainty. tabs., figs.

  6. CCAA seasonal forecasting

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Integrating meteorological and indigenous knowledge-based seasonal climate forecasts in ..... Explanation is based on spiritual and social values. Taught by .... that provided medicine and food became the subject of strict rules and practices ...

  7. Forecast Icing Product

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Forecast Icing Product (FIP) is an automatically-generated index suitable for depicting areas of potentially hazardous airframe icing. The FIP algorithm uses...

  8. Conditional Probabilistic Population Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Sanderson, W.C.; Scherbov, S.; O'Neill, B.C.; Lutz, W.

    2003-01-01

    Since policy makers often prefer to think in terms of scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy makers it allows them to answer "what if"...

  9. Conditional probabilistic population forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Sanderson, Warren; Scherbov, Sergei; O'Neill, Brian; Lutz, Wolfgang

    2003-01-01

    Since policy-makers often prefer to think in terms of alternative scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy-makers because it allows them...

  10. Conditional Probabilistic Population Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Sanderson, Warren C.; Scherbov, Sergei; O'Neill, Brian C.; Lutz, Wolfgang

    2004-01-01

    Since policy-makers often prefer to think in terms of alternative scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy-makers because...

  11. EU pharmaceutical expenditure forecast

    OpenAIRE

    Urbinati, Duccio; Rémuzat, Cécile; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    Background and Objectives: With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, forecasting has become critically important. Some countries have, for instance, developed pharmaceutical horizon scanning units. The objective of this project was to build a model to assess the net effect of the entrance of new patented medicinal products versus medicinal products going off-patent, with a defined forecast horizon, on selected European Union (EU) Member States’ ph...

  12. Grammar Maturity Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zaytsev, V.; Pierantonio, A.; Schätz, B.; Tamzalit, D.

    2014-01-01

    The evolution of a software language (whether modelled by a grammar or a schema or a metamodel) is not limited to development of new versions and dialects. An important dimension of a software language evolution is maturing in the sense of improving the quality of its definition. In this paper, we

  13. Maturing interorganisational information systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Plomp, M.G.A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/313946809

    2012-01-01

    This thesis consists of nine chapters, divided over five parts. PART I is an introduction and the last part contains the conclusions. The remaining, intermediate parts are: PART II: Developing a maturity model for chain digitisation. This part contains two related studies concerning the development

  14. Jealousy and Moral Maturity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathes, Eugene W.; Deuger, Donna J.

    Jealousy may be perceived as either good or bad depending upon the moral maturity of the individual. To investigate this conclusion, a study was conducted testing two hypothesis: a positive relationship exists between conventional moral reasoning (reference to norms and laws) and the endorsement and level of jealousy; and a negative relationship…

  15. Effect of maturity stages, variety and storage environment on sugar ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study clearly demonstrated the importance of integrated agro-technology of combining cultivar, maturity stage and storage environment in shelf life improvement of tomato by reducing the rate of ripening and utilization of sugar, reducing water loss and maintaining marketability. Key words: Tomato, maturity stage, ...

  16. Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part II: Ensemble forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

    2009-04-01

    In part I of this study, the operational flood forecasting system in Bavaria and an approach to identify and quantify forecast uncertainty was introduced. The approach is split into the calculation of an empirical 'overall error' from archived forecasts and the calculation of an empirical 'model error' based on hydrometeorological forecast tests, where rainfall observations were used instead of forecasts. The 'model error' can especially in upstream catchments where forecast uncertainty is strongly dependent on the current predictability of the atrmosphere be superimposed on the spread of a hydrometeorological ensemble forecast. In Bavaria, two meteorological ensemble prediction systems are currently tested for operational use: the 16-member COSMO-LEPS forecast and a poor man's ensemble composed of DWD GME, DWD Cosmo-EU, NCEP GFS, Aladin-Austria, MeteoSwiss Cosmo-7. The determination of the overall forecast uncertainty is dependent on the catchment characteristics: 1. Upstream catchment with high influence of weather forecast a) A hydrological ensemble forecast is calculated using each of the meteorological forecast members as forcing. b) Corresponding to the characteristics of the meteorological ensemble forecast, each resulting forecast hydrograph can be regarded as equally likely. c) The 'model error' distribution, with parameters dependent on hydrological case and lead time, is added to each forecast timestep of each ensemble member d) For each forecast timestep, the overall (i.e. over all 'model error' distribution of each ensemble member) error distribution is calculated e) From this distribution, the uncertainty range on a desired level (here: the 10% and 90% percentile) is extracted and drawn as forecast envelope. f) As the mean or median of an ensemble forecast does not necessarily exhibit meteorologically sound temporal evolution, a single hydrological forecast termed 'lead forecast' is chosen and shown in addition to the uncertainty bounds. This can be

  17. Space Weather Forecasting at IZMIRAN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaidash, S. P.; Belov, A. V.; Abunina, M. A.; Abunin, A. A.

    2017-12-01

    Since 1998, the Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radio Wave Propagation (IZMIRAN) has had an operating heliogeophysical service—the Center for Space Weather Forecasts. This center transfers the results of basic research in solar-terrestrial physics into daily forecasting of various space weather parameters for various lead times. The forecasts are promptly available to interested consumers. This article describes the center and the main types of forecasts it provides: solar and geomagnetic activity, magnetospheric electron fluxes, and probabilities of proton increases. The challenges associated with the forecasting of effects of coronal mass ejections and coronal holes are discussed. Verification data are provided for the center's forecasts.

  18. Mature Oocyte Cryopreservation for Fertility Preservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Tina; Motan, Tarek

    2016-01-01

    In recent decades, advances in cancer treatment have led to a dramatic improvement in long term survival. This has led to an increasing focus on quality of life after surviving cancer treatment, with fertility being an important aspect. Given the known reproductive risks of cancer therapies, there has been a growing interest in the field of fertility preservation (also referred to as oncofertility). Mature oocyte cryopreservation is no longer considered experimental and has become a realistic option for reproductive aged women prior to undergoing cancer treatment. Additionally, as cryopreservation techniques improve, mature oocyte cryopreservation is increasing being marketed to healthy women without cancer wishing to delay child bearing, also termed "social egg freezing". This chapter provides a review of the current technology, use, and outcomes of mature oocyte cryopreservation. It also outlines the ethical debate surrounding social egg freezing and directions for future research in female fertility preservation.

  19. Assessment of storm forecast

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Huus Bjerge, Martin

    When wind speed exceeds a certain value, wind turbines shut-down in order to protect their structure. This leads to sudden wind plants shut down and to new challenges concerning the secure operation of the pan-European electric system with future large scale offshore wind power. This task aims...... stopped, completely or partially, producing due to extreme wind speeds. Wind speed and power measurements from those events are presented and compared to the forecast available at Energinet.dk. The analysis looked at wind speed and wind power forecast. The main conclusion of the analysis is that the wind...... to consider it an EWP) and that the available wind speed forecasts are given as a mean wind speed over a rather large area. At wind power level, the analysis shows that prediction of accurate production levels from a wind farm experiencing EWP is rather poor. This is partially because the power curve...

  20. Financial Analysts’ Forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stæhr, Simone

    . The primary focus is on financial analysts in the task of conducting earnings forecasts while a secondary focus is on investors’ abilities to interpret and make use of these forecasts. Simply put, financial analysts can be seen as information intermediators receiving inputs to their analyses from firm...... in the decision making and the magnitude of these constraints does sometimes vary with personal traits. Therefore, to the extent that financial analysts are subjects to behavioral biases their outputs to the investors are likely to be biased by their interpretation of information. Because investors need accuracy...... management and providing outputs to the investors. Amongst various outputs from the analysts are forecasts of earnings. According to decision theories mostly from the literature in psychology all humans are affected by cognitive constraints to some degree. These constraints may lead to unintentional biases...

  1. Wind power forecast

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pestana, Rui [Rede Electrica Nacional (REN), S.A., Lisboa (Portugal). Dept. Systems and Development System Operator; Trancoso, Ana Rosa; Delgado Domingos, Jose [Univ. Tecnica de Lisboa (Portugal). Seccao de Ambiente e Energia

    2012-07-01

    Accurate wind power forecast are needed to reduce integration costs in the electric grid caused by wind inherent variability. Currently, Portugal has a significant wind power penetration level and consequently the need to have reliable wind power forecasts at different temporal scales, including localized events such as ramps. This paper provides an overview of the methodologies used by REN to forecast wind power at national level, based on statistical and probabilistic combinations of NWP and measured data with the aim of improving accuracy of pure NWP. Results show that significant improvement can be achieved with statistical combination with persistence in the short-term and with probabilistic combination in the medium-term. NWP are also able to detect ramp events with 3 day notice to the operational planning. (orig.)

  2. Measuring the effectiveness of earthquake forecasting in insurance strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mignan, A.; Muir-Wood, R.

    2009-04-01

    Given the difficulty of judging whether the skill of a particular methodology of earthquake forecasts is offset by the inevitable false alarms and missed predictions, it is important to find a means to weigh the successes and failures according to a common currency. Rather than judge subjectively the relative costs and benefits of predictions, we develop a simple method to determine if the use of earthquake forecasts can increase the profitability of active financial risk management strategies employed in standard insurance procedures. Three types of risk management transactions are employed: (1) insurance underwriting, (2) reinsurance purchasing and (3) investment in CAT bonds. For each case premiums are collected based on modelled technical risk costs and losses are modelled for the portfolio in force at the time of the earthquake. A set of predetermined actions follow from the announcement of any change in earthquake hazard, so that, for each earthquake forecaster, the financial performance of an active risk management strategy can be compared with the equivalent passive strategy in which no notice is taken of earthquake forecasts. Overall performance can be tracked through time to determine which strategy gives the best long term financial performance. This will be determined by whether the skill in forecasting the location and timing of a significant earthquake (where loss is avoided) is outweighed by false predictions (when no premium is collected). This methodology is to be tested in California, where catastrophe modeling is reasonably mature and where a number of researchers issue earthquake forecasts.

  3. A High Precision Artificial Neural Networks Model for Short-Term Energy Load Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ping-Huan Kuo

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the most important research topics in smart grid technology is load forecasting, because accuracy of load forecasting highly influences reliability of the smart grid systems. In the past, load forecasting was obtained by traditional analysis techniques such as time series analysis and linear regression. Since the load forecast focuses on aggregated electricity consumption patterns, researchers have recently integrated deep learning approaches with machine learning techniques. In this study, an accurate deep neural network algorithm for short-term load forecasting (STLF is introduced. The forecasting performance of proposed algorithm is compared with performances of five artificial intelligence algorithms that are commonly used in load forecasting. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE and Cumulative Variation of Root Mean Square Error (CV-RMSE are used as accuracy evaluation indexes. The experiment results show that MAPE and CV-RMSE of proposed algorithm are 9.77% and 11.66%, respectively, displaying very high forecasting accuracy.

  4. Forecast of auroral activity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lui, A.T.Y.

    2004-01-01

    A new technique is developed to predict auroral activity based on a sample of over 9000 auroral sites identified in global auroral images obtained by an ultraviolet imager on the NASA Polar satellite during a 6-month period. Four attributes of auroral activity sites are utilized in forecasting, namely, the area, the power, and the rates of change in area and power. This new technique is quite accurate, as indicated by the high true skill scores for forecasting three different levels of auroral dissipation during the activity lifetime. The corresponding advanced warning time ranges from 22 to 79 min from low to high dissipation levels

  5. Forecasting Turbine Icing Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davis, Neil; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Clausen, Niels-Erik

    2012-01-01

    In this study, we present a method for forecasting icing events. The method is validated at two European wind farms in with known icing events. The icing model used was developed using current ice accretion methods, and newly developed ablation algorithms. The model is driven by inputs from the WRF...... mesoscale model, allowing for both climatological estimates of icing and short term icing forecasts. The current model was able to detect periods of icing reasonably well at the warmer site. However at the cold climate site, the model was not able to remove ice quickly enough leading to large ice...

  6. Spatial load forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Willis, H.L.; Engel, M.V.; Buri, M.J.

    1995-04-01

    The reliability, efficiency, and economy of a power delivery system depend mainly on how well its substations, transmission lines, and distribution feeders are located within the utility service area, and how well their capacities match power needs in their respective localities. Often, utility planners are forced to commit to sites, rights of way, and equipment capacities year in advance. A necessary element of effective expansion planning is a forecast of where and how much demand must be served by the future T and D system. This article reports that a three-stage method forecasts with accuracy and detail, allowing meaningful determination of sties and sizes for future substation, transmission, and distribution facilities.

  7. Maturity Model for Advancing Smart Grid Interoperability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knight, Mark; Widergren, Steven E.; Mater, J.; Montgomery, Austin

    2013-10-28

    Abstract—Interoperability is about the properties of devices and systems to connect and work properly. Advancing interoperability eases integration and maintenance of the resulting interconnection. This leads to faster integration, lower labor and component costs, predictability of projects and the resulting performance, and evolutionary paths for upgrade. When specifications are shared and standardized, competition and novel solutions can bring new value streams to the community of stakeholders involved. Advancing interoperability involves reaching agreement for how things join at their interfaces. The quality of the agreements and the alignment of parties involved in the agreement present challenges that are best met with process improvement techniques. The GridWise® Architecture Council (GWAC) sponsored by the United States Department of Energy is supporting an effort to use concepts from capability maturity models used in the software industry to advance interoperability of smart grid technology. An interoperability maturity model has been drafted and experience is being gained through trials on various types of projects and community efforts. This paper describes the value and objectives of maturity models, the nature of the interoperability maturity model and how it compares with other maturity models, and experiences gained with its use.

  8. People Capability Maturity Model. SM.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1995-09-01

    tailored so it consumes less time and resources than a traditional software process assessment or CMU/SEI-95-MM-02 People Capability Maturity Model...improved reputation or customer loyalty. CMU/SEI-95-MM-02 People Capability Maturity Model ■ L5-17 Coaching Level 5: Optimizing Activity 1...Maturity Model CMU/SEI-95-MM-62 Carnegie-Mellon University Software Engineering Institute DTIC ELECTE OCT 2 7 1995 People Capability Maturity

  9. Forecasting Housing Approvals in Australia: Do Forecasters Herd?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Rülke

    2012-01-01

    Price trends in housing markets may reflect herding of market participants. A natural question is whether such herding, to the extent that it occurred, reflects herding in forecasts of professional forecasters. Using more than 6,000 forecasts of housing approvals for Australia, we did not find...

  10. Selecting the Best Forecasting-Implied Volatility Model Using Genetic Programming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wafa Abdelmalek

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The volatility is a crucial variable in option pricing and hedging strategies. The aim of this paper is to provide some initial evidence of the empirical relevance of genetic programming to volatility's forecasting. By using real data from S&P500 index options, the genetic programming's ability to forecast Black and Scholes-implied volatility is compared between time series samples and moneyness-time to maturity classes. Total and out-of-sample mean squared errors are used as forecasting's performance measures. Comparisons reveal that the time series model seems to be more accurate in forecasting-implied volatility than moneyness time to maturity models. Overall, results are strongly encouraging and suggest that the genetic programming approach works well in solving financial problems.

  11. Maturity effects in energy futures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Serletis, Apostolos (Calgary Univ., AB (CA). Dept. of Economics)

    1992-04-01

    This paper examines the effects of maturity on future price volatility and trading volume for 129 energy futures contracts recently traded in the NYMEX. The results provide support for the maturity effect hypothesis, that is, energy futures prices to become more volatile and trading volume increases as futures contracts approach maturity. (author).

  12. CDM Convective Forecast Planning guidance

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CDM Convective Forecast Planning (CCFP) guidance product provides a foreast of en-route aviation convective hazards. The forecasts are updated every 2 hours and...

  13. A maturity model to assess organisational readiness for change

    OpenAIRE

    Zephir, Olivier; Minel, Stéphanie; Chapotot, Emilie

    2011-01-01

    International audience; The presented model which is developed in a European project allows project management teams to assess the organisational maturity to integrate new practices under structural or technological change. Maturity for change is defined here as workforce capability to operate effectively in transformed processes. This methodology is addressed to tackle organisational readiness to fulfil business objectives through technological and structural improvements. The tool integrate...

  14. Are demand forecasting techniques applicable to libraries?

    OpenAIRE

    Sridhar, M. S.

    1984-01-01

    Examines the nature and limitations of demand forecasting, discuses plausible methods of forecasting demand for information, suggests some useful hints for demand forecasting and concludes by emphasizing unified approach to demand forecasting.

  15. Maturing ECRF technology for plasma control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Callis, R.W.; .; Cary, W.P.; Chu, S.

    2003-01-01

    The availability of high power, (∼1 MW) long pulse length (effectively cw), high frequency, (>100 GHz) gyrotrons has opened the opportunity for enhanced scientific results on magnetic confinement devices for fusion research worldwide. This has led to successful experiments on electron cyclotron heating, electron cyclotron current drive, non-inductive tokamak operation, tokamak energy transport, suppression of instabilities and advanced profile control leading to enhanced performance. The key development in the gyrotron community that has led to the realization of high power long pulse gyrotrons is the availability of edge cooled synthetic diamond gyrotron output windows, which have low loss and excellent thermal and mechanical properties. In addition to the emergence of reliable high power gyrotrons, ancillary equipment for efficient microwave transmission over distances of hundreds of meters, polarization control, diagnostics, and flexible launch geometry have all been developed and proven in regular service. (author)

  16. NSF's Perspective on Space Weather Research for Building Forecasting Capabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bisi, M. M.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Bisi, M. M.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Webb, D. F.; Oughton, E. J.; Azeem, S. I.

    2017-12-01

    Space weather research at the National Science Foundation (NSF) is focused on scientific discovery and on deepening knowledge of the Sun-Geospace system. The process of maturation of knowledge base is a requirement for the development of improved space weather forecast models and for the accurate assessment of potential mitigation strategies. Progress in space weather forecasting requires advancing in-depth understanding of the underlying physical processes, developing better instrumentation and measurement techniques, and capturing the advancements in understanding in large-scale physics based models that span the entire chain of events from the Sun to the Earth. This presentation will provide an overview of current and planned programs pertaining to space weather research at NSF and discuss the recommendations of the Geospace Section portfolio review panel within the context of space weather forecasting capabilities.

  17. Forecasting of superconducting compounds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Savitskii, E.M.; Gribulya, V.G.; Kiseleva, N.N.

    1981-01-01

    In forecasting new superconducting intermetallic compounds of the A15 and Mo 3 Se types most promising from the viewpoint of high critical temperature Tsub(c), high critical magnetic fields Hsub(c), and high critical currents and in estimating their transition temperature it is proposed to apply cybernetic methods of computer learning

  18. Forecast of nuclear energetics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sikora, W

    1976-01-01

    The forecast concerning the development of nuclear energetics is presented. Some information on economics of nuclear power plants is given. The nuclear fuel reserves are estimated on the background of power resources of the world. The safety and environment protection problems are mentioned.

  19. Climate Forecast System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Forecast System Home News Organization Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services. The NCEP Climate when using the CFS Reanalysis (CFSR) data. Saha, Suranjana, and Coauthors, 2010: The NCEP Climate

  20. Hydrology and flow forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vrijling, J.K.; Kwadijk, J.; Van Duivendijk, J.; Van Gelder, P.; Pang, H.; Rao, S.Q.; Wang, G.Q.; Huang, X.Q.

    2002-01-01

    We have studied and applied the statistic model (i.e. MMC) and hydrological models to Upper Yellow River. This report introduces the results and some conclusions from the model. The three models, MMC, MWBM and NAM, have be applied in the research area. The forecasted discharge by the three models

  1. NWS Marine Forecast Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    of Commerce Ocean Prediction Center National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Analysis & Unified Surface Analysis Ocean Ocean Products Ice & Icebergs NIC Ice Products NAIS Iceberg Analysis Social Media Facebook Twitter YouTube Search Search For Go NWS All NOAA NWS Marine Forecast Areas

  2. The Latest Forecast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laurence, David

    2002-01-01

    Discusses the "latest forecast" for the future of English departments. Addresses departmental and institutional staffing practices, employment opportunities for PhDs, the acceleration of change in the institution, and the general state of the study and teaching of English. (RS)

  3. Project in fiscal 1989 for research and development of basic technologies in next generation industries. Research and development of superconducting materials and superconducting elements (Achievement report on forecast and research of superconducting element technology); 1990 nendo chodendo soshi gijutsu yosoku kenkyu seika hokokusho

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1991-03-01

    With an objective to forecast the ways the future superconducting elements and the related technologies should proceed, investigations and researches were performed on the progress in research and development of high-temperature superconducting elements, and the superconduction in a wide range. This paper summarizes the achievements in fiscal 1990. The high-temperature superconducting thin film technology has made remarkable advancement. The correlation of film forming conditions with characteristics of thin films was studied by using the sputtering process, laser deposition process and CVD process, having made production of thin films sufficiently applicable to electronics possible. A technology has been developed to suppress deterioration of characteristics for high-temperature conductors in thin film patterning, surface treatment and lamination structure fabrication. However, the problem of characteristics deterioration on interface of tri-terminal elements still remain unsolved. The bonded structure elements using high-temperature superconductors is the central technology in electronics application, but such problems exist as the coherence length being short, deterioration of characteristics at interfaces, and the electric characteristics being sensitive to crystalline orientation. Technological development to overcome these problems is under way. (NEDO)

  4. Ecological forecasts: An emerging imperative

    Science.gov (United States)

    James S. Clark; Steven R. Carpenter; Mary Barber; Scott Collins; Andy Dobson; Jonathan A. Foley; David M. Lodge; Mercedes Pascual; Roger Pielke; William Pizer; Cathy Pringle; Walter V. Reid; Kenneth A. Rose; Osvaldo Sala; William H. Schlesinger; Diana H. Wall; David Wear

    2001-01-01

    Planning and decision-making can be improved by access to reliable forecasts of ecosystem state, ecosystem services, and natural capital. Availability of new data sets, together with progress in computation and statistics, will increase our ability to forecast ecosystem change. An agenda that would lead toward a capacity to produce, evaluate, and communicate forecasts...

  5. Air Pollution Forecasts: An Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Lu; Wang, Jianzhou; Lu, Haiyan

    2018-01-01

    Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies. PMID:29673227

  6. Air Pollution Forecasts: An Overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Lu; Wang, Jianzhou; Ma, Xuejiao; Lu, Haiyan

    2018-04-17

    Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies.

  7. Air Pollution Forecasts: An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Bai

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies.

  8. Storm Prediction Center Forecast Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" or "ZIP" City, St Archive NOAA Weather Radio Research Non-op. Products Forecast Tools Svr. Tstm. Events SPC Publications SPC services. Forecast Products Current Weather Watches This is the current graphic showing any severe

  9. Antibody affinity maturation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skjødt, Mette Louise

    Yeast surface display is an effective tool for antibody affinity maturation because yeast can be used as an all-in-one workhorse to assemble, display and screen diversified antibody libraries. By employing the natural ability of yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae to efficiently recombine multiple DNA...... laboratory conditions. A particular emphasis was put on using molecular techniques in conjunction with microenvironmental measurements (O2, pH, irradiance), a combination that is rarely found but provides a much more detailed understanding of “cause and effect” in complex natural systems...

  10. Gas deliverability forecasting - why bother?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trick, M.

    1996-01-01

    According to the author the answer to the question is an unequivocal 'yes' because gas production forecasting is extremely useful for the management and development of a gas field. To model a gas field, one must take into account reservoir performance, sandface inflow performance, wellbore pressure losses, gathering system pressure losses, and field facility performance. The integration of all these factors in a single computer-based model that incorporates proven technology will facilitate the evaluation of various development strategies. A good computer model can help to predict the most cost effective improvement methods, determine economic viability, estimate how much gas is available, evaluate whether drilling wells or adding compression will produce the most reserves, determine optimum placement of compression, evaluate changes to the gathering system, and determine if production from existing wells can be increased by wellbore modifications

  11. How accurate are forecasts of costs of energy? A methodological contribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siddons, Craig; Allan, Grant; McIntyre, Stuart

    2015-01-01

    Forecasts of the cost of energy are typically presented as point estimates; however forecasts are seldom accurate, which makes it important to understand the uncertainty around these point estimates. The scale of the differences between forecasts and outturns (i.e. contemporary estimates) of costs may have important implications for government decisions on the appropriate form (and level) of support, modelling energy scenarios or industry investment appraisal. This paper proposes a methodology to assess the accuracy of cost forecasts. We apply this to levelised costs of energy for different generation technologies due to the availability of comparable forecasts and contemporary estimates, however the same methodology could be applied to the components of levelised costs, such as capital costs. The estimated “forecast errors” capture the accuracy of previous forecasts and can provide objective bounds to the range around current forecasts for such costs. The results from applying this method are illustrated using publicly available data for on- and off-shore wind, Nuclear and CCGT technologies, revealing the possible scale of “forecast errors” for these technologies. - Highlights: • A methodology to assess the accuracy of forecasts of costs of energy is outlined. • Method applied to illustrative data for four electricity generation technologies. • Results give an objective basis for sensitivity analysis around point estimates.

  12. The weather forecasting in Colombia: Science plus Art

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez Marentes, Humberto

    2006-01-01

    The presentation intends to show briefly and rapidly the progress weather forecasting science has undergone times until today. Undoubtedly, there has been an impressive technological advances, more data better models, better representations of the physics of the atmosphere; however for the case of the low latitude countries, there are still some problems to resolve concerning the local prediction that deserve more research and more data to be included in the models. As these limitations subsist, the subjective knowledge and the experience of the duty forecaster remain valuable. The presentation is also useful to summarize how IDEAM prepares short weather forecasts

  13. Benefits of seasonal forecasts of crop yields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakurai, G.; Okada, M.; Nishimori, M.; Yokozawa, M.

    2017-12-01

    Major factors behind recent fluctuations in food prices include increased biofuel production and oil price fluctuations. In addition, several extreme climate events that reduced worldwide food production coincided with upward spikes in food prices. The stabilization of crop yields is one of the most important tasks to stabilize food prices and thereby enhance food security. Recent development of technologies related to crop modeling and seasonal weather forecasting has made it possible to forecast future crop yields for maize and soybean. However, the effective use of these technologies remains limited. Here we present the potential benefits of seasonal crop-yield forecasts on a global scale for choice of planting day. For this purpose, we used a model (PRYSBI-2) that can well replicate past crop yields both for maize and soybean. This model system uses a Bayesian statistical approach to estimate the parameters of a basic process-based model of crop growth. The spatial variability of model parameters was considered by estimating the posterior distribution of the parameters from historical yield data by using the Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method with a resolution of 1.125° × 1.125°. The posterior distributions of model parameters were estimated for each spatial grid with 30 000 MCMC steps of 10 chains each. By using this model and the estimated parameter distributions, we were able to estimate not only crop yield but also levels of associated uncertainty. We found that the global average crop yield increased about 30% as the result of the optimal selection of planting day and that the seasonal forecast of crop yield had a large benefit in and near the eastern part of Brazil and India for maize and the northern area of China for soybean. In these countries, the effects of El Niño and Indian Ocean dipole are large. The results highlight the importance of developing a system to forecast global crop yields.

  14. Report (summarized) for fiscal 2000 on survey for demonstration of geothermal exploration technologies. Development of exploration method using reservoir bed fluctuation (Theme 5-1. Reservoir fluctuation forecasting technology); 2000 nendo chinetsu tansa gijutsu to kensho chosa hokokusho (yoyaku). Choryuso hendo tansaho kaihatsu - 5-1 (choryuso hendo yosoku gijutsu)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2001-03-01

    With an objective of developing a method effective to evaluate reservoir beds in the initial stage of development, to maintain output stability of power plants after having started the operation and to extract reservoirs existing in the vicinity of areas that have already been developed, R and D has been performed in relation with a reservoir simulator on post processors for gravity, SP, and resistivity, and on reservoir modeling. This paper summarizes the achievements in fiscal 2000. In developing the resistivity post processor, a prototype was completed. In developing the resistivity post processor for MT/CSAMT method, an analysis code was structured, and an input/output format was discussed. In developing the seismic wave post processor, a seismic wave characteristics fluctuation model was formulated. Regarding the input/output aiding GUI tools, a conceptual design was made. In developing the reservoir modeling technology, production forecasting simulation using a porous model and an MINC model was performed for the Sumikawa area. Based on the result thereof, forecast calculation was carried out on gravity change, resistivity change and natural potential change. (NEDO)

  15. ASSESSING AND FORECASTING, BY PLAY, NATURAL GAS ULTIMATE RECOVERY GROWTH AND QUANTIFYING THE ROLE OF TECHNOLOGY ADVANCEMENTS IN THE TEXAS GULF COAST BASIN AND EAST TEXAS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    William L. Fisher; Eugene M. Kim

    2000-12-01

    A detailed natural gas ultimate recovery growth (URG) analysis of the Texas Gulf Coast Basin and East Texas has been undertaken. The key to such analysis was determined to be the disaggregation of the resource base to the play level. A play is defined as a conceptual geologic unit having one or more reservoirs that can be genetically related on the basis of depositional origin of the reservoir, structural or trap style, source rocks and hydrocarbon generation, migration mechanism, seals for entrapment, and type of hydrocarbon produced. Plays are the geologically homogeneous subdivision of the universe of petroleum pools within a basin. Therefore, individual plays have unique geological features that can be used as a conceptual model that incorporates geologic processes and depositional environments to explain the distribution of petroleum. Play disaggregation revealed important URG trends for the major natural gas fields in the Texas Gulf Coast Basin and East Texas. Although significant growth and future potential were observed for the major fields, important URG trends were masked by total, aggregated analysis based on a broad geological province. When disaggregated by plays, significant growth and future potential were displayed for plays that were associated with relatively recently discovered fields, deeper reservoir depths, high structural complexities due to fault compartmentalization, reservoirs designated as tight gas/low-permeability, and high initial reservoir pressures. Continued technology applications and advancements are crucial in achieving URG potential in these plays.

  16. Load forecasting for supermarket refrigeration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik; Aalborg Nielsen, Henrik

    This report presents a study of models for forecasting the load for supermarket refrigeration. The data used for building the forecasting models consists of load measurements, local climate measurements and weather forecasts. The load measurements are from a supermarket located in a village...... in Denmark. The load for refrigeration is the sum of all cabinets in the supermarket, both low and medium temperature cabinets, and spans a period of one year. As input to the forecasting models the ambient temperature observed near the supermarket together with weather forecasts are used. Every hour...

  17. Tomato seeds maturity detection system based on chlorophyll fluorescence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Cuiling; Wang, Xiu; Meng, Zhijun

    2016-10-01

    Chlorophyll fluorescence intensity can be used as seed maturity and quality evaluation indicator. Chlorophyll fluorescence intensity of seed coats is tested to judge the level of chlorophyll content in seeds, and further to judge the maturity and quality of seeds. This research developed a detection system of tomato seeds maturity based on chlorophyll fluorescence spectrum technology, the system included an excitation light source unit, a fluorescent signal acquisition unit and a data processing unit. The excitation light source unit consisted of two high power LEDs, two radiators and two constant current power supplies, and it was designed to excite chlorophyll fluorescence of tomato seeds. The fluorescent signal acquisition unit was made up of a fluorescence spectrometer, an optical fiber, an optical fiber scaffolds and a narrowband filter. The data processing unit mainly included a computer. Tomato fruits of green ripe stage, discoloration stage, firm ripe stage and full ripe stage were harvested, and their seeds were collected directly. In this research, the developed tomato seeds maturity testing system was used to collect fluorescence spectrums of tomato seeds of different maturities. Principal component analysis (PCA) method was utilized to reduce the dimension of spectral data and extract principal components, and PCA was combined with linear discriminant analysis (LDA) to establish discriminant model of tomato seeds maturity, the discriminant accuracy was greater than 90%. Research results show that using chlorophyll fluorescence spectrum technology is feasible for seeds maturity detection, and the developed tomato seeds maturity testing system has high detection accuracy.

  18. Artificial Intelligence as a Business Forecasting and Error Handling Tool

    OpenAIRE

    Md. Tabrez Quasim; Rupak Chattopadhyay

    2015-01-01

     Any business enterprise must rely a lot on how well it can predict the future happenings. To cope up with the modern global customer demand, technological challenges, market competitions etc., any organization is compelled to foresee the future having maximum impact and least chances of errors. The traditional forecasting approaches have some limitations. That is why the business world is adopting the modern Artificial Intelligence based forecasting techniques. This paper has tried to presen...

  19. Correlation between dental maturity and cervical vertebral maturity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jianwei; Hu, Haikun; Guo, Jing; Liu, Zeping; Liu, Renkai; Li, Fan; Zou, Shujuan

    2010-12-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the association between dental and skeletal maturity. Digital panoramic radiographs and lateral skull cephalograms of 302 patients (134 boys and 168 girls, ranging from 8 to 16 years of age) were examined. Dental maturity was assessed by calcification stages of the mandibular canines, first and second premolars, and second molars, whereas skeletal maturity was estimated by the cervical vertebral maturation (CVM) stages. The Spearman rank-order correlation coefficient was used to measure the association between CVM stage and dental calcification stage of individual teeth. The mean chronologic age of girls was significantly lower than that of boys in each CVM stage. The Spearman rank-order correlation coefficients between dental maturity and cervical vertebral maturity ranged from 0.391 to 0.582 for girls and from 0.464 to 0.496 for boys (P cervical vertebral maturation stage. The development of the mandibular second molar in females and that of the mandibular canine in males had the strongest correlations with cervical vertebral maturity. Therefore, it is practical to consider the relationship between dental and skeletal maturity when planning orthodontic treatment. Copyright © 2010 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Mature Cystic Renal Teratoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yavuz, Alpaslan; Ceken, Kagan; Alimoglu, Emel; Akkaya, Bahar

    2014-01-01

    Teratomas are rare germline tumors that originate from one or more embryonic germ cell layers. Teratoma of the kidney is extremely rare, and less than 30 cases of primary intrarenal teratomas have been published to date. We report the main radiologic features of an unusual case of mature cystic teratoma arising from the left kidney in a two-year-old boy. A left-sided abdominal mass was detected on physical examination and B-Mod Ultrasound (US) examination revealed a heterogeneous mass with central cystic component. Computed tomography (CT) demonstrated a lobulated, heterogeneous, hypodense mass extending craniocaudally from the splenic hilum to the level of the left iliac fossa. Nephrectomy was performed and a large, fatty mass arising from the left kidney was excised. The final pathologic diagnosis was confirmed as cystic renal teratoma

  1. Forecasting military expenditure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tobias Böhmelt

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available To what extent do frequently cited determinants of military spending allow us to predict and forecast future levels of expenditure? The authors draw on the data and specifications of a recent model on military expenditure and assess the predictive power of its variables using in-sample predictions, out-of-sample forecasts and Bayesian model averaging. To this end, this paper provides guidelines for prediction exercises in general using these three techniques. More substantially, however, the findings emphasize that previous levels of military spending as well as a country’s institutional and economic characteristics particularly improve our ability to predict future levels of investment in the military. Variables pertaining to the international security environment also matter, but seem less important. In addition, the results highlight that the updated model, which drops weak predictors, is not only more parsimonious, but also slightly more accurate than the original specification.

  2. The forecaster's added value

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turco, M.; Milelli, M.

    2009-09-01

    To the authors' knowledge there are relatively few studies that try to answer this topic: "Are humans able to add value to computer-generated forecasts and warnings ?". Moreover, the answers are not always positive. In particular some postprocessing method is competitive or superior to human forecast (see for instance Baars et al., 2005, Charba et al., 2002, Doswell C., 2003, Roebber et al., 1996, Sanders F., 1986). Within the alert system of ARPA Piemonte it is possible to study in an objective manner if the human forecaster is able to add value with respect to computer-generated forecasts. Every day the meteorology group of the Centro Funzionale of Regione Piemonte produces the HQPF (Human QPF) in terms of an areal average for each of the 13 regional warning areas, which have been created according to meteo-hydrological criteria. This allows the decision makers to produce an evaluation of the expected effects by comparing these HQPFs with predefined rainfall thresholds. Another important ingredient in this study is the very dense non-GTS network of rain gauges available that makes possible a high resolution verification. In this context the most useful verification approach is the measure of the QPF and HQPF skills by first converting precipitation expressed as continuous amounts into ‘‘exceedance'' categories (yes-no statements indicating whether precipitation equals or exceeds selected thresholds) and then computing the performances for each threshold. In particular in this work we compare the performances of the latest three years of QPF derived from two meteorological models COSMO-I7 (the Italian version of the COSMO Model, a mesoscale model developed in the framework of the COSMO Consortium) and IFS (the ECMWF global model) with the HQPF. In this analysis it is possible to introduce the hypothesis test developed by Hamill (1999), in which a confidence interval is calculated with the bootstrap method in order to establish the real difference between the

  3. Forecasting carbon dioxide emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Xiaobing; Du, Ding

    2015-09-01

    This study extends the literature on forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by applying the reduced-form econometrics approach of Schmalensee et al. (1998) to a more recent sample period, the post-1997 period. Using the post-1997 period is motivated by the observation that the strengthening pace of global climate policy may have been accelerated since 1997. Based on our parameter estimates, we project 25% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 according to an economic and population growth scenario that is more consistent with recent global trends. Our forecasts are conservative due to that we do not have sufficient data to fully take into account recent developments in the global economy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Forecasting potential crises

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neufeld, W.P.

    1984-01-01

    Recently, the Trend Analysis Program (TAP) of the American Council of Life Insurance commissioned the Futures Group of Glastonbury, Connecticut, to examine the potential for large-scale catastrophic events in the near future. TAP was specifically concerned with five potential crises: the warming of the earth's atmosphere, the water shortage, the collapse of the physical infrastructure, the global financial crisis, and the threat of nuclear war. We are often unprepared to take action; in these cases, we lose an advantage we might have otherwise had. This is the whole idea behind forecasting: to foresee possibilities and to project how we can respond. If we are able to create forecasts against which we can test policy options and choices, we may have the luxury of adopting policies ahead of events. Rather than simply fighting fires, we have the option of creating a future more to our choosing. Short descriptions of these five potential crises and, in some cases, possible solutions are presented

  5. Forecasting oilfield economic performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bradley, M.E.; Wood, A.R.O.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a general method for forecasting oilfield economic performance that integrates cost data with operational, reservoir, and financial information. Practices are developed for determining economic limits for an oil field and its components. The economic limits of marginal wells and the role of underground competition receive special attention. Also examined is the influence of oil prices on operating costs. Examples illustrate application of these concepts. Categorization of costs for historical tracking and projections is recommended

  6. Frost Forecasting for Fruitgrowers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martsolf, J. D.; Chen, E.

    1983-01-01

    Progress in forecasting from satellite data reviewed. University study found data from satellites displayed in color and used to predict frost are valuable aid to agriculture. Study evaluated scheme to use Earth-temperature data from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite in computer model that determines when and where freezing temperatures endanger developing fruit crops, such as apples, peaches and cherries in spring and citrus crops in winter.

  7. Uranium price forecasting methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuller, D.M.

    1994-01-01

    This article reviews a number of forecasting methods that have been applied to uranium prices and compares their relative strengths and weaknesses. The methods reviewed are: (1) judgemental methods, (2) technical analysis, (3) time-series methods, (4) fundamental analysis, and (5) econometric methods. Historically, none of these methods has performed very well, but a well-thought-out model is still useful as a basis from which to adjust to new circumstances and try again

  8. Functional dynamic factor models with application to yield curve forecasting

    KAUST Repository

    Hays, Spencer

    2012-09-01

    Accurate forecasting of zero coupon bond yields for a continuum of maturities is paramount to bond portfolio management and derivative security pricing. Yet a universal model for yield curve forecasting has been elusive, and prior attempts often resulted in a trade-off between goodness of fit and consistency with economic theory. To address this, herein we propose a novel formulation which connects the dynamic factor model (DFM) framework with concepts from functional data analysis: a DFM with functional factor loading curves. This results in a model capable of forecasting functional time series. Further, in the yield curve context we show that the model retains economic interpretation. Model estimation is achieved through an expectation- maximization algorithm, where the time series parameters and factor loading curves are simultaneously estimated in a single step. Efficient computing is implemented and a data-driven smoothing parameter is nicely incorporated. We show that our model performs very well on forecasting actual yield data compared with existing approaches, especially in regard to profit-based assessment for an innovative trading exercise. We further illustrate the viability of our model to applications outside of yield forecasting.

  9. PyForecastTools

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2017-09-22

    The PyForecastTools package provides Python routines for calculating metrics for model validation, forecast verification and model comparison. For continuous predictands the package provides functions for calculating bias (mean error, mean percentage error, median log accuracy, symmetric signed bias), and for calculating accuracy (mean squared error, mean absolute error, mean absolute scaled error, normalized RMSE, median symmetric accuracy). Convenience routines to calculate the component parts (e.g. forecast error, scaled error) of each metric are also provided. To compare models the package provides: generic skill score; percent better. Robust measures of scale including median absolute deviation, robust standard deviation, robust coefficient of variation and the Sn estimator are all provided by the package. Finally, the package implements Python classes for NxN contingency tables. In the case of a multi-class prediction, accuracy and skill metrics such as proportion correct and the Heidke and Peirce skill scores are provided as object methods. The special case of a 2x2 contingency table inherits from the NxN class and provides many additional metrics for binary classification: probability of detection, probability of false detection, false alarm ration, threat score, equitable threat score, bias. Confidence intervals for many of these quantities can be calculated using either the Wald method or Agresti-Coull intervals.

  10. Seismic forecast using geostatistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grecu, Valeriu; Mateiciuc, Doru

    2007-01-01

    The main idea of this research direction consists in the special way of constructing a new type of mathematical function as being a correlation between a computed statistical quantity and another physical quantity. This type of function called 'position function' was taken over by the authors of this study in the field of seismology with the hope of solving - at least partially - the difficult problem of seismic forecast. The geostatistic method of analysis focuses on the process of energy accumulation in a given seismic area, completing this analysis by a so-called loading function. This function - in fact a temporal function - describes the process of energy accumulation during a seismic cycle from a given seismic area. It was possible to discover a law of evolution of the seismic cycles that was materialized in a so-called characteristic function. This special function will help us to forecast the magnitude and the occurrence moment of the largest earthquake in the analysed area. Since 2000, the authors have been evolving to a new stage of testing: real - time analysis, in order to verify the quality of the method. There were five large earthquakes forecasts. (authors)

  11. Statistical methods for forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Abraham, Bovas

    2009-01-01

    The Wiley-Interscience Paperback Series consists of selected books that have been made more accessible to consumers in an effort to increase global appeal and general circulation. With these new unabridged softcover volumes, Wiley hopes to extend the lives of these works by making them available to future generations of statisticians, mathematicians, and scientists."This book, it must be said, lives up to the words on its advertising cover: ''Bridging the gap between introductory, descriptive approaches and highly advanced theoretical treatises, it provides a practical, intermediate level discussion of a variety of forecasting tools, and explains how they relate to one another, both in theory and practice.'' It does just that!"-Journal of the Royal Statistical Society"A well-written work that deals with statistical methods and models that can be used to produce short-term forecasts, this book has wide-ranging applications. It could be used in the context of a study of regression, forecasting, and time series ...

  12. Investments on a Rugged Landscape: The Effect of Investor Population, Network Structure, and Complexity on Technological Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hain, Daniel; Mas Tur, Elena

    In this paper, we investigate which characteristics of technological and financial systems might be conductive for technological change. We are particularly in how the interplay between capabilities, resources and networks among investors with the complexity and maturity of technologies affect...... rates of technological change and diversity, and prevents technologies from getting stuck in the financial “valley of death”. In a next step, we introduce investor networks and allow agents to co-invest together in order to pool financial resources and get access to their forecasting capability...... in a specific technological domain. We compare which investor network structures lead to the high rates of technological change and diversity on a given technology landscape. Results from a Monte Carlo simulation indicate networked investor population to outperform the case of isolated stand-alone investors...

  13. Developing maturity grids for assessing organisational capabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maier, Anja; Moultrie, James; Clarkson, P John

    2009-01-01

    Keyword: Maturity Model,Maturity Grid,Maturity Matrix,Organisational Capabilities,Benchmarking,New Product Development,Perfirmance Assessment......Keyword: Maturity Model,Maturity Grid,Maturity Matrix,Organisational Capabilities,Benchmarking,New Product Development,Perfirmance Assessment...

  14. Modeling non-maturing liabilities

    OpenAIRE

    von Feilitzen, Helena

    2011-01-01

    Non‐maturing liabilities, such as savings accounts, lack both predetermined maturity and reset dates due to the fact that the depositor is free to withdraw funds at any time and that the depository institution is free to change the rate. These attributes complicate the risk management of such products and no standardized solution exists. The problem is important however since non‐maturing liabilities typically make up a considerable part of the funding of a bank. In this report different mode...

  15. Analysing UK real estate market forecast disagreement

    OpenAIRE

    McAllister, Patrick; Newell, G.; Matysiak, George

    2005-01-01

    Given the significance of forecasting in real estate investment decisions, this paper investigates forecast uncertainty and disagreement in real estate market forecasts. Using the Investment Property Forum (IPF) quarterly survey amongst UK independent real estate forecasters, these real estate forecasts are compared with actual real estate performance to assess a number of real estate forecasting issues in the UK over 1999-2004, including real estate forecast error, bias and consensus. The re...

  16. Effective Feature Preprocessing for Time Series Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Junhua; Dong, Zhaoyang; Xu, Zhao

    2006-01-01

    Time series forecasting is an important area in data mining research. Feature preprocessing techniques have significant influence on forecasting accuracy, therefore are essential in a forecasting model. Although several feature preprocessing techniques have been applied in time series forecasting...... performance in time series forecasting. It is demonstrated in our experiment that, effective feature preprocessing can significantly enhance forecasting accuracy. This research can be a useful guidance for researchers on effectively selecting feature preprocessing techniques and integrating them with time...... series forecasting models....

  17. EU pharmaceutical expenditure forecast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urbinati, Duccio; Rémuzat, Cécile; Kornfeld, Åsa; Vataire, Anne-Lise; Cetinsoy, Laurent; Aballéa, Samuel; Mzoughi, Olfa; Toumi, Mondher

    2014-01-01

    With constant incentives for healthcare payers to contain their pharmaceutical budgets, forecasting has become critically important. Some countries have, for instance, developed pharmaceutical horizon scanning units. The objective of this project was to build a model to assess the net effect of the entrance of new patented medicinal products versus medicinal products going off-patent, with a defined forecast horizon, on selected European Union (EU) Member States' pharmaceutical budgets. This model took into account population ageing, as well as current and future country-specific pricing, reimbursement, and market access policies (the project was performed for the European Commission; see http://ec.europa.eu/health/healthcare/key_documents/index_en.htm). In order to have a representative heterogeneity of EU Member States, the following countries were selected for the analysis: France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, and the United Kingdom. A forecasting period of 5 years (2012-2016) was chosen to assess the net pharmaceutical budget impact. A model for generics and biosimilars was developed for each country. The model estimated a separate and combined effect of the direct and indirect impacts of the patent cliff. A second model, estimating the sales development and the risk of development failure, was developed for new drugs. New drugs were reviewed individually to assess their clinical potential and translate it into commercial potential. The forecast was carried out according to three perspectives (healthcare public payer, society, and manufacturer), and several types of distribution chains (retail, hospital, and combined retail and hospital). Probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses were carried out. According to the model, all countries experienced drug budget reductions except Poland (+€41 million). Savings were expected to be the highest in the United Kingdom (-€9,367 million), France (-€5,589 million), and, far behind them

  18. Air Quality Forecasting through Different Statistical and Artificial Intelligence Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, D.; Goyal, P.

    2014-12-01

    Urban air pollution forecasting has emerged as an acute problem in recent years because there are sever environmental degradation due to increase in harmful air pollutants in the ambient atmosphere. In this study, there are different types of statistical as well as artificial intelligence techniques are used for forecasting and analysis of air pollution over Delhi urban area. These techniques are principle component analysis (PCA), multiple linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN) and the forecasting are observed in good agreement with the observed concentrations through Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) at different locations in Delhi. But such methods suffers from disadvantages like they provide limited accuracy as they are unable to predict the extreme points i.e. the pollution maximum and minimum cut-offs cannot be determined using such approach. Also, such methods are inefficient approach for better output forecasting. But with the advancement in technology and research, an alternative to the above traditional methods has been proposed i.e. the coupling of statistical techniques with artificial Intelligence (AI) can be used for forecasting purposes. The coupling of PCA, ANN and fuzzy logic is used for forecasting of air pollutant over Delhi urban area. The statistical measures e.g., correlation coefficient (R), normalized mean square error (NMSE), fractional bias (FB) and index of agreement (IOA) of the proposed model are observed in better agreement with the all other models. Hence, the coupling of statistical and artificial intelligence can be use for the forecasting of air pollutant over urban area.

  19. Improving wave forecasting by integrating ensemble modelling and machine learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donncha, F.; Zhang, Y.; James, S. C.

    2017-12-01

    Modern smart-grid networks use technologies to instantly relay information on supply and demand to support effective decision making. Integration of renewable-energy resources with these systems demands accurate forecasting of energy production (and demand) capacities. For wave-energy converters, this requires wave-condition forecasting to enable estimates of energy production. Current operational wave forecasting systems exhibit substantial errors with wave-height RMSEs of 40 to 60 cm being typical, which limits the reliability of energy-generation predictions thereby impeding integration with the distribution grid. In this study, we integrate physics-based models with statistical learning aggregation techniques that combine forecasts from multiple, independent models into a single "best-estimate" prediction of the true state. The Simulating Waves Nearshore physics-based model is used to compute wind- and currents-augmented waves in the Monterey Bay area. Ensembles are developed based on multiple simulations perturbing input data (wave characteristics supplied at the model boundaries and winds) to the model. A learning-aggregation technique uses past observations and past model forecasts to calculate a weight for each model. The aggregated forecasts are compared to observation data to quantify the performance of the model ensemble and aggregation techniques. The appropriately weighted ensemble model outperforms an individual ensemble member with regard to forecasting wave conditions.

  20. Forecasting short-term power prices in the Ontario Electricity Market (OEM) with a fuzzy logic based inference system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arciniegas, Alvaro I.; Arciniegas Rueda, Ismael E.

    2008-01-01

    The Ontario Electricity Market (OEM), which opened in May 2002, is relatively new and is still under change. In addition, the bidding strategies of the participants are such that the relationships between price and fundamentals are non-linear and dynamic. The lack of market maturity and high complexity hinders the use of traditional statistical methodologies (e.g., regression analysis) for price forecasting. Therefore, a flexible model is needed to achieve good forecasting in OEM. This paper uses a Takagi-Sugeno-Kang (TSK) fuzzy inference system in forecasting the one-day-ahead real-time peak price of the OEM. The forecasting results of TSK are compared with those obtained by traditional statistical and neural network based forecasting. The comparison suggests that TSK has considerable value in forecasting one-day-ahead peak price in OEM. (author)

  1. Ethical issues in forecasting of natural hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinti, Stefano

    2014-05-01

    Natural hazards have by definition a large impact on the society and, therefore, since the beginning of science one of the major aspiration of mankind has been the prediction of natural calamities in the attempt to avoid or to mitigate their effects. In modern societies where science and technology have gained a foundational role, forecasts and predictions have become part of the every-day life and may also influence state policies and economic development. And in parallel with the growing importance of forecasting, even ethical problems for forecasters and for forecasters communities have started to appear. In this work two of the many geo-ethical issues are considered mostly: 1) how to cope with uncertainties that are inherently associated with any forecast statement; 2) how to handle predictions in scientific journals and scientific conferences The former issue is mainly related to the impact of predictions on the general public and on managers and operators in the civil protection field. Forecasters operate in specific contexts that 1) may change from country to country, depending on the local adopted best practices, but also, which is more constraining, on the local legal regulations and laws; 2) may change from discipline to discipline according to the development of the specific knowhow and the range of the forecast (from minutes to centuries) The second issue has to do with the communication of the scientific results on predictions and on prediction methods to the audience mainly composed of scientists, and involves one of the basic elements of science. In principle, scientists should use scientific communication means (papers in scientific journals, conferences, …) to illustrate results that are sound and certain, or the methods by means of which they conduct their research. But scientists involved in predictions have inherently to do with uncertainties, and, since there is no common agreement on how to deal with them, there is the risk that scientific

  2. Evaluation of Probabilistic Disease Forecasts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, Gareth; Burnett, Fiona J

    2017-10-01

    The statistical evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts often involves calculation of metrics defined conditionally on disease status, such as sensitivity and specificity. However, for the purpose of disease management decision making, metrics defined conditionally on the result of the forecast-predictive values-are also important, although less frequently reported. In this context, the application of scoring rules in the evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts is discussed. An index of separation with application in the evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts, described in the clinical literature, is also considered and its relation to scoring rules illustrated. Scoring rules provide a principled basis for the evaluation of probabilistic forecasts used in plant disease management. In particular, the decomposition of scoring rules into interpretable components is an advantageous feature of their application in the evaluation of disease forecasts.

  3. Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part I: Forecast uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

    2009-04-01

    In Bavaria, operational flood forecasting has been established since the disastrous flood of 1999. Nowadays, forecasts based on rainfall information from about 700 raingauges and 600 rivergauges are calculated and issued for nearly 100 rivergauges. With the added experience of the 2002 and 2005 floods, awareness grew that the standard deterministic forecast, neglecting the uncertainty associated with each forecast is misleading, creating a false feeling of unambiguousness. As a consequence, a system to identify, quantify and communicate the sources and magnitude of forecast uncertainty has been developed, which will be presented in part I of this study. In this system, the use of ensemble meteorological forecasts plays a key role which will be presented in part II. Developing the system, several constraints stemming from the range of hydrological regimes and operational requirements had to be met: Firstly, operational time constraints obviate the variation of all components of the modeling chain as would be done in a full Monte Carlo simulation. Therefore, an approach was chosen where only the most relevant sources of uncertainty were dynamically considered while the others were jointly accounted for by static error distributions from offline analysis. Secondly, the dominant sources of uncertainty vary over the wide range of forecasted catchments: In alpine headwater catchments, typically of a few hundred square kilometers in size, rainfall forecast uncertainty is the key factor for forecast uncertainty, with a magnitude dynamically changing with the prevailing predictability of the atmosphere. In lowland catchments encompassing several thousands of square kilometers, forecast uncertainty in the desired range (usually up to two days) is mainly dependent on upstream gauge observation quality, routing and unpredictable human impact such as reservoir operation. The determination of forecast uncertainty comprised the following steps: a) From comparison of gauge

  4. Whose Maturity is it Anyway?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lasrado, Lester Allan; Vatrapu, Ravi; Mukkamala, Raghava Rao

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents results from an ongoing empirical study that seeks to understand the influence of different quantitative methods on the design and assessment of maturity models. Although there have been many academic publications on maturity models, there exists a significant lack of understa...

  5. Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2012

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hong, Tao; Pinson, Pierre; Fan, Shu

    2014-01-01

    The Global Energy Forecasting Competition (GEFCom2012) attracted hundreds of participants worldwide, who contributed many novel ideas to the energy forecasting field. This paper introduces both tracks of GEFCom2012, hierarchical load forecasting and wind power forecasting, with details...... on the aspects of the problem, the data, and a summary of the methods used by selected top entries. We also discuss the lessons learned from this competition from the organizers’ perspective. The complete data set, including the solution data, is published along with this paper, in an effort to establish...

  6. An Electrical Energy Consumption Monitoring and Forecasting System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. L. Rojas-Renteria

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Electricity consumption is currently an issue of great interest for power companies that need an as much as accurate profile for controlling the installed systems but also for designing future expansions and alterations. Detailed monitoring has proved to be valuable for both power companies and consumers. Further, as smart grid technology is bound to result to increasingly flexible rates, an accurate forecast is bound to prove valuable in the future. In this paper, a monitoring and forecasting system is investigated. The monitoring system was installed in an actual building and the recordings were used to design and evaluate the forecasting system, based on an artificial neural network. Results show that the system can provide detailed monitoring and also an accurate forecast for a building’s consumption.

  7. Analysis of Big Data Maturity Stage in Hospitality Industry

    OpenAIRE

    Shabani, Neda; Munir, Arslan; Bose, Avishek

    2017-01-01

    Big data analytics has an extremely significant impact on many areas in all businesses and industries including hospitality. This study aims to guide information technology (IT) professionals in hospitality on their big data expedition. In particular, the purpose of this study is to identify the maturity stage of the big data in hospitality industry in an objective way so that hotels be able to understand their progress, and realize what it will take to get to the next stage of big data matur...

  8. Essays on Technology and Forecasting in Macroeconomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samuels, Jon Devin

    2012-01-01

    The three chapters in this dissertation use disaggregated models and data to provide new insights on well-established questions in macroeconomics. In the first chapter, to analyze how productivity impacts the business cycle, I model aggregate production with a production possibility frontier that accommodates sector-and factor-biased productivity.…

  9. Forecast of Remote Underwater Sensing Technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-07-01

    Ndgrt o oth NIA ye ’ Suite 709NrtFaothMAO5i Arligton VA 2202Attn: Dave Ho0soci, Chief Enginee~r Attn : Jay W. -arford, Manlager, (617) 563-59)17 (703...0,1305 Attn: Dr. A. Zielinski , Asst. Professor Attn: C. R. B. Lister Faculty of Engineering and (20t) 325-5497 Applied Science (709) 753-1200 Lockheed...157. Zielinski , A.; Barbour, L.; "Swept Carrier Acoustic Underwater Communica- tions," IEEE/MTS Oceans 󈨒, Washington, DC, Sept. 6-8, 1978. 158

  10. Forecast of useful energy for the TIMES-Norway model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosenberg, Eva

    2012-01-01

    A regional forecast of useful energy demand in seven Norwegian regions is calculated based on an earlier work with a national forecast. This forecast will be input to the energy system model TIMES-Norway and analyses will result in forecasts of energy use of different energy carriers with varying external conditions (not included in this report). The forecast presented here describes the methodology used and the resulting forecast of useful energy. lt is based on information of the long-term development of the economy by the Ministry of Finance, projections of population growths from Statistics Norway and several other studies. The definition of a forecast of useful energy demand is not absolute, but depends on the purpose. One has to be careful not to include parts that are a part of the energy system model, such as energy efficiency measures. In the forecast presented here the influence of new building regulations and the prohibition of production of incandescent light bulbs in EU etc. are included. Other energy efficiency measures such as energy management, heat pumps, tightening of leaks etc. are modelled as technologies to invest in and are included in the TIMES-Norway model. The elasticity between different energy carriers are handled by the TIMES-Norway model and some elasticity is also included as the possibility to invest in energy efficiency measures. The forecast results in an increase of the total useful energy from 2006 to 2050 by 18 o/o. The growth is expected to be highest in the regions South and East. The industry remains at a constant level in the base case and increased or reduced energy demand is analysed as different scenarios with the TIMES-Norway model. The most important driver is the population growth. Together with the assumptions made it results in increased useful energy demand in the household and service sectors of 25 o/o and 57 % respectively.(au)

  11. Forecast of useful energy for the TIMES-Norway model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosenberg, Eva

    2012-07-25

    A regional forecast of useful energy demand in seven Norwegian regions is calculated based on an earlier work with a national forecast. This forecast will be input to the energy system model TIMES-Norway and analyses will result in forecasts of energy use of different energy carriers with varying external conditions (not included in this report). The forecast presented here describes the methodology used and the resulting forecast of useful energy. lt is based on information of the long-term development of the economy by the Ministry of Finance, projections of population growths from Statistics Norway and several other studies. The definition of a forecast of useful energy demand is not absolute, but depends on the purpose. One has to be careful not to include parts that are a part of the energy system model, such as energy efficiency measures. In the forecast presented here the influence of new building regulations and the prohibition of production of incandescent light bulbs in EU etc. are included. Other energy efficiency measures such as energy management, heat pumps, tightening of leaks etc. are modelled as technologies to invest in and are included in the TIMES-Norway model. The elasticity between different energy carriers are handled by the TIMES-Norway model and some elasticity is also included as the possibility to invest in energy efficiency measures. The forecast results in an increase of the total useful energy from 2006 to 2050 by 18 o/o. The growth is expected to be highest in the regions South and East. The industry remains at a constant level in the base case and increased or reduced energy demand is analysed as different scenarios with the TIMES-Norway model. The most important driver is the population growth. Together with the assumptions made it results in increased useful energy demand in the household and service sectors of 25 o/o and 57 % respectively.(au)

  12. Verification of ECMWF and ECMWF/MACC's global and direct irradiance forecasts with respect to solar electricity production forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Schroedter-Homscheidt

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The successful electricity grid integration of solar energy into day-ahead markets requires at least hourly resolved 48 h forecasts. Technologies as photovoltaics and non-concentrating solar thermal technologies make use of global horizontal irradiance (GHI forecasts, while all concentrating technologies both from the photovoltaic and the thermal sector require direct normal irradiances (DNI. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF has recently changed towards providing direct as well as global irradiances. Additionally, the MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition & Climate near-real time services provide daily analysis and forecasts of aerosol properties in preparation of the upcoming European Copernicus programme. The operational ECMWF/IFS (Integrated Forecast System forecast system will in the medium term profit from the Copernicus service aerosol forecasts. Therefore, within the MACC‑II project specific experiment runs were performed allowing for the assessment of the performance gain of these potential future capabilities. Also the potential impact of providing forecasts with hourly output resolution compared to three-hourly resolved forecasts is investigated. The inclusion of the new aerosol climatology in October 2003 improved both the GHI and DNI forecasts remarkably, while the change towards a new radiation scheme in 2007 only had minor and partly even unfavourable impacts on the performance indicators. For GHI, larger RMSE (root mean square error values are found for broken/overcast conditions than for scattered cloud fields. For DNI, the findings are opposite with larger RMSE values for scattered clouds compared to overcast/broken cloud situations. The introduction of direct irradiances as an output parameter in the operational IFS version has not resulted in a general performance improvement with respect to biases and RMSE compared to the widely used Skartveit et al. (1998 global to direct irradiance

  13. Flood Forecasting Based on TIGGE Precipitation Ensemble Forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinyin Ye

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available TIGGE (THORPEX International Grand Global Ensemble was a major part of the THORPEX (Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment. It integrates ensemble precipitation products from all the major forecast centers in the world and provides systematic evaluation on the multimodel ensemble prediction system. Development of meteorologic-hydrologic coupled flood forecasting model and early warning model based on the TIGGE precipitation ensemble forecast can provide flood probability forecast, extend the lead time of the flood forecast, and gain more time for decision-makers to make the right decision. In this study, precipitation ensemble forecast products from ECMWF, NCEP, and CMA are used to drive distributed hydrologic model TOPX. We focus on Yi River catchment and aim to build a flood forecast and early warning system. The results show that the meteorologic-hydrologic coupled model can satisfactorily predict the flow-process of four flood events. The predicted occurrence time of peak discharges is close to the observations. However, the magnitude of the peak discharges is significantly different due to various performances of the ensemble prediction systems. The coupled forecasting model can accurately predict occurrence of the peak time and the corresponding risk probability of peak discharge based on the probability distribution of peak time and flood warning, which can provide users a strong theoretical foundation and valuable information as a promising new approach.

  14. Evaluating the Organizational Interoperability Maturity Level in ICT Research Center

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manijeh Haghighinasab

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Interoperability refers to the ability to provide services and to accept services from other systems or devices. Collaborative enterprises face additional challenges to interoperate seamlessly within a networked organization. The major task here is to assess the maturity level of interoperating organizations. For this purpose the maturity models for enterprise were reviewed based on vendors’ reliability and advantages versus disadvantages. Interoperability maturity model was deduced from ATHENA project as European Integrated Project in 2005, this model named as EIMM was examined in Iran information and Communication Institute as a leading Telecommunication organization. 115 questionnaires were distributed between staff of 4 departments: Information Technology, Communication Technology, Security and Strategic studies regarding six areas of concern: Enterprise Modeling, Business Strategy Process, Organization and Competences, Products and Services, Systems and Technology, Legal Environment, Security and Trust at five maturity levels: Performed, Modeled , Integrated, Interoperable and Optimizing maturity. The findings showed different levels of maturity in this Institute. To achieve Interoperability level, appropriate practices are proposed for promotion to the higher levels.

  15. Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) [1 Deg.

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) is a weather forecast model made up of 21 separate forecasts, or ensemble members. The National Centers for Environmental...

  16. Guidelines for forecasting energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sonino, T.

    1976-11-01

    Four methodologies for forecasting energy demand are reviewed here after considering the role of energy in the economy and the analysis of energy use in different economic sectors. The special case of Israel is considered throughout, and some forecasts for energy demands in the year 2000 are presented. An energy supply mix that may be considered feasible is proposed. (author)

  17. Regional-seasonal weather forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abarbanel, H.; Foley, H.; MacDonald, G.; Rothaus, O.; Rudermann, M.; Vesecky, J.

    1980-08-01

    In the interest of allocating heating fuels optimally, the state-of-the-art for seasonal weather forecasting is reviewed. A model using an enormous data base of past weather data is contemplated to improve seasonal forecasts, but present skills do not make that practicable. 90 references. (PSB)

  18. Forecasting the future of biodiversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fitzpatrick, M. C.; Sanders, Nate; Ferrier, Simon

    2011-01-01

    , but their application to forecasting climate change impacts on biodiversity has been limited. Here we compare forecasts of changes in patterns of ant biodiversity in North America derived from ensembles of single-species models to those from a multi-species modeling approach, Generalized Dissimilarity Modeling (GDM...... climate change impacts on biodiversity....

  19. Forecasts: uncertain, inaccurate and biased?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nicolaisen, Morten Skou; Ambrasaite, Inga; Salling, Kim Bang

    2012-01-01

    Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) is the dominating methodology for appraisal of transport infrastructure projects across the globe. In order to adequately assess the costs and benefits of such projects two types of forecasts are crucial to the validity of the appraisal. First are the forecasts of cons....... It is recommended that more attention is given to monitoring completed projects so future forecasts can benefit from better data availability through systematic ex-post evaluations, and an example of how to utilize such data in practice is presented.......Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) is the dominating methodology for appraisal of transport infrastructure projects across the globe. In order to adequately assess the costs and benefits of such projects two types of forecasts are crucial to the validity of the appraisal. First are the forecasts...... of construction costs, which account for the majority of total project costs. Second are the forecasts of travel time savings, which account for the majority of total project benefits. The latter of these is, inter alia, determined by forecasts of travel demand, which we shall use as a proxy for the forecasting...

  20. Ensemble hydromoeteorological forecasting in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lucatero Villasenor, Diana

    forecasts where a dampening of the differences of precipitation quality occurs. Seasonal meteorological forecasts are possible due to changes of large scale patterns of the ocean and land, such as el Niño, that evolve at a much slower pace than the atmosphere, which can have an impact on its evolution later...

  1. Now, Here's the Weather Forecast...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Mathew

    2013-01-01

    The Met Office has a long history of weather forecasting, creating tailored weather forecasts for customers across the world. Based in Exeter, the Met Office is also home to the Met Office Hadley Centre, a world-leading centre for the study of climate change and its potential impacts. Climate information from the Met Office Hadley Centre is used…

  2. Method of forecasting power distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaneto, Kunikazu.

    1981-01-01

    Purpose: To obtain forecasting results at high accuracy by reflecting the signals from neutron detectors disposed in the reactor core on the forecasting results. Method: An on-line computer transfers, to a simulator, those process data such as temperature and flow rate for coolants in each of the sections and various measuring signals such as control rod positions from the nuclear reactor. The simulator calculates the present power distribution before the control operation. The signals from the neutron detectors at each of the positions in the reactor core are estimated from the power distribution and errors are determined based on the estimated values and the measured values to determine the smooth error distribution in the axial direction. Then, input conditions at the time to be forecast are set by a data setter. The simulator calculates the forecast power distribution after the control operation based on the set conditions. The forecast power distribution is corrected using the error distribution. (Yoshino, Y.)

  3. Energy forecasts, perspectives and methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Svensson, J E; Mogren, A

    1984-01-01

    The authors have analyzed different methods for long term energy prognoses, in particular energy consumption forecasts. Energy supply and price prognoses are also treated, but in a less detailed manner. After defining and discussing the various methods/models used in forecasts, a generalized discussion of the influence on the prognoses from the perspectives (background factors, world view, norms, ideology) of the prognosis makers is given. Some basic formal demands that should be asked from any rational forecast are formulated and discussed. The authors conclude that different forecasting methodologies are supplementing each other. There is no best method, forecasts should be accepted as views of the future from differing perspectives. The primary prognostic problem is to show the possible futures, selecting the wanted future is a question of political process.

  4. Forecasting volatility for options valuation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Belaifa, M.; Morimune, K.

    2006-01-01

    The petroleum sector plays a neuralgic role in the basement of world economies, and market actors (producers, intermediates, as well as consumers) are continuously subjected to the dynamics of unstable oil market. Huge amounts are being invested along the production chain to make one barrel of crude oil available to the end user. Adding to that are the effect of geopolitical dynamics as well as geological risks as expressed in terms of low chances of successful discoveries. In addition, fiscal regimes and regulations, technology and environmental concerns are also among some of the major factors that contribute to the substantial risk in the oil industry and render the market structure vulnerable to crises. The management of these vulnerabilities require modern tools to reduce risk to a certain level, which unfortunately is a non-zero value. The aim of this paper is, therefore, to provide a modern technique to capture the oil price stochastic volatility that can be implemented to value the exposure of an investor, a company, a corporate or a Government. The paper first analyses the regional dependence on oil prices, through a historical perspective and then looks at the evolution of pricing environment since the large price jumps of the 1970s. The main causes of oil prices volatility are treated in the third part of the paper. The rest of the article deals with volatility models and forecasts used in risk management, with an implication for pricing derivatives. (author)

  5. A Simplified Short Term Load Forecasting Method Based on Sequential Patterns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kouzelis, Konstantinos; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte; Mahat, Pukar

    2014-01-01

    Load forecasting is an essential part of a power system both for planning and daily operation purposes. As far as the latter is concerned, short term load forecasting has been broadly used at the transmission level. However, recent technological advancements and legislation have facilitated the i...... in comparison with an ARIMA model....

  6. Slab replacement maturity guidelines : [summary].

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-04-01

    Concrete sets in hours at moderate temperatures, : but the bonds that make concrete strong continue : to mature over days to years. However, for : replacement concrete slabs on highways, it is : crucial that concrete develop enough strength : within ...

  7. SOUL System Maturation, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Busek Co. Inc. proposes to advance the maturity of an innovative Spacecraft on Umbilical Line (SOUL) System suitable for a wide variety of applications of interest...

  8. SOUL System Maturation, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Busek Co. Inc. proposes to advance the maturity of an innovative Spacecraft on Umbilical Line (SOUL) System suitable for a wide variety of applications of interest...

  9. Digital Marketing Maturity Models: Overview and Comparison

    OpenAIRE

    Elina Bakhtieva

    2017-01-01

    The variety of available digital tools, strategies and activities might confuse and disorient even an experienced marketer. This applies in particular to B2B companies, which are usually less flexible in uptaking of digital technology than B2C companies. B2B companies are lacking a framework that corresponds to the specifics of the B2B business, and which helps to evaluate a company’s capabilities and to choose an appropriate path. A B2B digital marketing maturity model helps to fill this gap...

  10. Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconnection (Poster)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hodge, B.

    2013-12-01

    Wind power forecasting is a necessary and important technology for incorporating wind power into the unit commitment and dispatch process. It is expected to become increasingly important with higher renewable energy penetration rates and progress toward the smart grid. There is consensus that wind power forecasting can help utility operations with increasing wind power penetration; however, there is far from a consensus about the economic value of improved forecasts. This work explores the value of improved wind power forecasting in the Western Interconnection of the United States.

  11. Sirocco - Fukushima Forecast Description

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    SYMPHONIE-NH is the non-hydrostatic ocean model following the Boussinesq hydrostatic SYMPHONIE-2010 model developed by the Sirocco system team (CNRS and Toulouse University). Both are using an Arakawa type finite difference method for the C grid. The R and D team generally gives priority to a physically based approach of modelling (global conservation of the mechanical energy, consistency of pressure and density, accuracy of the bottom pressure torque,...) that tends to favour low order and robust numerical schemes. Most of the physical and numerical options (Non-Hydrostatic, free surface, generalised coordinates combined to an ALE method,...) are particularly suitable for the coastal area. At the request of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA, March 14, 2011), SIROCCO is delivering every day a real time 6-day forecast bulletin of the dispersion in seawater of radionuclides emitted by the Fukushima nuclear plant. The simulations are based on the S2010.18 release of the 3D SIROCCO ocean circulation model. The system is operational since March 24 and the bulletin is available on an 'open-access' basis since March 28. The model uses a stretched horizontal grid with a variable horizontal resolution: from 600 m x 600 m at the nearest grid point from Fukushima, to 5 km x 5 km offshore. The initial fields (T, S, U, V, SSH) and the lateral open boundary conditions are provided by the Mercator PSY4V1R3 system (one field per day, horizontal resolution 1/12 deg. x 1/12 deg.). At the sea surface, the ocean model is forced by the meteorological fluxes delivered every 3 hours by ECMWF.i The tidal forcing at the lateral open boundaries is provided by the T-UGO model, implemented for this purpose by the SIROCCO team on the Japanese Pacific coast. Some details are given on the methodology: Bathymetry, Initialization and large scale forcing, Tides, Atmospheric forcing, Forecast protocol, and Scenario for radioactive tracers

  12. Sirocco - Fukushima Forecast Description

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-04-10

    SYMPHONIE-NH is the non-hydrostatic ocean model following the Boussinesq hydrostatic SYMPHONIE-2010 model developed by the Sirocco system team (CNRS and Toulouse University). Both are using an Arakawa type finite difference method for the C grid. The R and D team generally gives priority to a physically based approach of modelling (global conservation of the mechanical energy, consistency of pressure and density, accuracy of the bottom pressure torque,...) that tends to favour low order and robust numerical schemes. Most of the physical and numerical options (Non-Hydrostatic, free surface, generalised coordinates combined to an ALE method,...) are particularly suitable for the coastal area. At the request of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA, March 14, 2011), SIROCCO is delivering every day a real time 6-day forecast bulletin of the dispersion in seawater of radionuclides emitted by the Fukushima nuclear plant. The simulations are based on the S2010.18 release of the 3D SIROCCO ocean circulation model. The system is operational since March 24 and the bulletin is available on an 'open-access' basis since March 28. The model uses a stretched horizontal grid with a variable horizontal resolution: from 600 m x 600 m at the nearest grid point from Fukushima, to 5 km x 5 km offshore. The initial fields (T, S, U, V, SSH) and the lateral open boundary conditions are provided by the Mercator PSY4V1R3 system (one field per day, horizontal resolution 1/12 deg. x 1/12 deg.). At the sea surface, the ocean model is forced by the meteorological fluxes delivered every 3 hours by ECMWF.i The tidal forcing at the lateral open boundaries is provided by the T-UGO model, implemented for this purpose by the SIROCCO team on the Japanese Pacific coast. Some details are given on the methodology: Bathymetry, Initialization and large scale forcing, Tides, Atmospheric forcing, Forecast protocol, and Scenario for radioactive tracers

  13. Naturally Engineered Maturation of Cardiomyocytes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaetano J. Scuderi

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Ischemic heart disease remains one of the most prominent causes of mortalities worldwide with heart transplantation being the gold-standard treatment option. However, due to the major limitations associated with heart transplants, such as an inadequate supply and heart rejection, there remains a significant clinical need for a viable cardiac regenerative therapy to restore native myocardial function. Over the course of the previous several decades, researchers have made prominent advances in the field of cardiac regeneration with the creation of in vitro human pluripotent stem cell-derived cardiomyocyte tissue engineered constructs. However, these engineered constructs exhibit a functionally immature, disorganized, fetal-like phenotype that is not equivalent physiologically to native adult cardiac tissue. Due to this major limitation, many recent studies have investigated approaches to improve pluripotent stem cell-derived cardiomyocyte maturation to close this large functionality gap between engineered and native cardiac tissue. This review integrates the natural developmental mechanisms of cardiomyocyte structural and functional maturation. The variety of ways researchers have attempted to improve cardiomyocyte maturation in vitro by mimicking natural development, known as natural engineering, is readily discussed. The main focus of this review involves the synergistic role of electrical and mechanical stimulation, extracellular matrix interactions, and non-cardiomyocyte interactions in facilitating cardiomyocyte maturation. Overall, even with these current natural engineering approaches, pluripotent stem cell-derived cardiomyocytes within three-dimensional engineered heart tissue still remain mostly within the early to late fetal stages of cardiomyocyte maturity. Therefore, although the end goal is to achieve adult phenotypic maturity, more emphasis must be placed on elucidating how the in vivo fetal microenvironment drives cardiomyocyte

  14. Maturation of sugar maple seed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clayton M., Jr. Carl; Albert G., Jr. Snow; Albert G. Snow

    1971-01-01

    The seeds of a sugar maple tree (Acer saccharum Marsh.) do not mature at the same time every year. And different trees mature their seeds at different times. So time of year is not a reliable measure of when seeds are ripe. Better criteria are needed. In recent studies we have found that moisture content and color are the best criteria for judging when sugar maple...

  15. Towards Energy Efficiency: Forecasting Indoor Temperature via Multivariate Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Pardo

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The small medium large system (SMLsystem is a house built at the Universidad CEU Cardenal Herrera (CEU-UCH for participation in the Solar Decathlon 2013 competition. Several technologies have been integrated to reduce power consumption. One of these is a forecasting system based on artificial neural networks (ANNs, which is able to predict indoor temperature in the near future using captured data by a complex monitoring system as the input. A study of the impact on forecasting performance of different covariate combinations is presented in this paper. Additionally, a comparison of ANNs with the standard statistical forecasting methods is shown. The research in this paper has been focused on forecasting the indoor temperature of a house, as it is directly related to HVAC—heating, ventilation and air conditioning—system consumption. HVAC systems at the SMLsystem house represent 53:89% of the overall power consumption. The energy used to maintain temperature was measured to be 30%–38:9% of the energy needed to lower it. Hence, these forecasting measures allow the house to adapt itself to future temperature conditions by using home automation in an energy-efficient manner. Experimental results show a high forecasting accuracy and therefore, they might be used to efficiently control an HVAC system.

  16. Environmental noise forecasting based on support vector machine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Yumei; Zan, Xinwu; Chen, Tianyi; Xiang, Shihan

    2018-01-01

    As an important pollution source, the noise pollution is always the researcher's focus. Especially in recent years, the noise pollution is seriously harmful to the human beings' environment, so the research about the noise pollution is a very hot spot. Some noise monitoring technologies and monitoring systems are applied in the environmental noise test, measurement and evaluation. But, the research about the environmental noise forecasting is weak. In this paper, a real-time environmental noise monitoring system is introduced briefly. This monitoring system is working in Mianyang City, Sichuan Province. It is monitoring and collecting the environmental noise about more than 20 enterprises in this district. Based on the large amount of noise data, the noise forecasting by the Support Vector Machine (SVM) is studied in detail. Compared with the time series forecasting model and the artificial neural network forecasting model, the SVM forecasting model has some advantages such as the smaller data size, the higher precision and stability. The noise forecasting results based on the SVM can provide the important and accuracy reference to the prevention and control of the environmental noise.

  17. Forecasting global atmospheric CO2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agusti-Panareda, A.; Massart, S.; Boussetta, S.; Balsamo, G.; Beljaars, A.; Engelen, R.; Jones, L.; Peuch, V.H.; Chevallier, F.; Ciais, P.; Paris, J.D.; Sherlock, V.

    2014-01-01

    A new global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) real-time forecast is now available as part of the preoperational Monitoring of Atmospheric Composition and Climate - Interim Implementation (MACC-II) service using the infrastructure of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). One of the strengths of the CO 2 forecasting system is that the land surface, including vegetation CO 2 fluxes, is modelled online within the IFS. Other CO 2 fluxes are prescribed from inventories and from off-line statistical and physical models. The CO 2 forecast also benefits from the transport modelling from a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) system initialized daily with a wealth of meteorological observations. This paper describes the capability of the forecast in modelling the variability of CO 2 on different temporal and spatial scales compared to observations. The modulation of the amplitude of the CO 2 diurnal cycle by near-surface winds and boundary layer height is generally well represented in the forecast. The CO 2 forecast also has high skill in simulating day-to-day synoptic variability. In the atmospheric boundary layer, this skill is significantly enhanced by modelling the day-to-day variability of the CO 2 fluxes from vegetation compared to using equivalent monthly mean fluxes with a diurnal cycle. However, biases in the modelled CO 2 fluxes also lead to accumulating errors in the CO 2 forecast. These biases vary with season with an underestimation of the amplitude of the seasonal cycle both for the CO 2 fluxes compared to total optimized fluxes and the atmospheric CO 2 compared to observations. The largest biases in the atmospheric CO 2 forecast are found in spring, corresponding to the onset of the growing season in the Northern Hemisphere. In the future, the forecast will be re-initialized regularly with atmospheric CO 2 analyses based on the assimilation of CO 2 products retrieved from satellite

  18. Waste Information Management System with Integrated Transportation Forecast Data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Upadhyay, H.; Quintero, W.; Shoffner, P.; Lagos, L.

    2009-01-01

    The Waste Information Management System with Integrated Transportation Forecast Data was developed to support the Department of Energy (DOE) mandated accelerated cleanup program. The schedule compression required close coordination and a comprehensive review and prioritization of the barriers that impeded treatment and disposition of the waste streams at each site. Many issues related to site waste treatment and disposal were potential critical path issues under the accelerated schedules. In order to facilitate accelerated cleanup initiatives, waste managers at DOE field sites and at DOE Headquarters in Washington, D.C., needed timely waste forecast and transportation information regarding the volumes and types of waste that would be generated by the DOE sites over the next 40 years. Each local DOE site has historically collected, organized, and displayed site waste forecast information in separate and unique systems. However, waste and shipment information from all sites needed a common application to allow interested parties to understand and view the complete complex-wide picture. The Waste Information Management System with Integrated Transportation Forecast Data allows identification of total forecasted waste volumes, material classes, disposition sites, choke points, technological or regulatory barriers to treatment and disposal, along with forecasted waste transportation information by rail, truck and inter-modal shipments. The Applied Research Center (ARC) at Florida International University (FIU) in Miami, Florida, has deployed the web-based forecast and transportation system and is responsible for updating the waste forecast and transportation data on a regular basis to ensure the long-term viability and value of this system. (authors)

  19. How accurate are the weather forecasts for Bierun (southern Poland)?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gawor, J.

    2012-04-01

    Weather forecast accuracy has increased in recent times mainly thanks to significant development of numerical weather prediction models. Despite the improvements, the forecasts should be verified to control their quality. The evaluation of forecast accuracy can also be an interesting learning activity for students. It joins natural curiosity about everyday weather and scientific process skills: problem solving, database technologies, graph construction and graphical analysis. The examination of the weather forecasts has been taken by a group of 14-year-old students from Bierun (southern Poland). They participate in the GLOBE program to develop inquiry-based investigations of the local environment. For the atmospheric research the automatic weather station is used. The observed data were compared with corresponding forecasts produced by two numerical weather prediction models, i.e. COAMPS (Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System) developed by Naval Research Laboratory Monterey, USA; it runs operationally at the Interdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modelling in Warsaw, Poland and COSMO (The Consortium for Small-scale Modelling) used by the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management. The analysed data included air temperature, precipitation, wind speed, wind chill and sea level pressure. The prediction periods from 0 to 24 hours (Day 1) and from 24 to 48 hours (Day 2) were considered. The verification statistics that are commonly used in meteorology have been applied: mean error, also known as bias, for continuous data and a 2x2 contingency table to get the hit rate and false alarm ratio for a few precipitation thresholds. The results of the aforementioned activity became an interesting basis for discussion. The most important topics are: 1) to what extent can we rely on the weather forecasts? 2) How accurate are the forecasts for two considered time ranges? 3) Which precipitation threshold is the most predictable? 4) Why

  20. Probabilistic Price Forecasting for Day-Ahead and Intraday Markets: Beyond the Statistical Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José R. Andrade

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Forecasting the hourly spot price of day-ahead and intraday markets is particularly challenging in electric power systems characterized by high installed capacity of renewable energy technologies. In particular, periods with low and high price levels are difficult to predict due to a limited number of representative cases in the historical dataset, which leads to forecast bias problems and wide forecast intervals. Moreover, these markets also require the inclusion of multiple explanatory variables, which increases the complexity of the model without guaranteeing a forecasting skill improvement. This paper explores information from daily futures contract trading and forecast of the daily average spot price to correct point and probabilistic forecasting bias. It also shows that an adequate choice of explanatory variables and use of simple models like linear quantile regression can lead to highly accurate spot price point and probabilistic forecasts. In terms of point forecast, the mean absolute error was 3.03 €/MWh for day-ahead market and a maximum value of 2.53 €/MWh was obtained for intraday session 6. The probabilistic forecast results show sharp forecast intervals and deviations from perfect calibration below 7% for all market sessions.