WorldWideScience

Sample records for technology maturity forecasting

  1. Computer-Aided Analysis of Patents for Product Technology Maturity Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Yanhong; Gan, Dequan; Guo, Yingchun; Zhang, Peng

    Product technology maturity foresting is vital for any enterprises to hold the chance for innovation and keep competitive for a long term. The Theory of Invention Problem Solving (TRIZ) is acknowledged both as a systematic methodology for innovation and a powerful tool for technology forecasting. Based on TRIZ, the state -of-the-art on the technology maturity of product and the limits of application are discussed. With the application of text mining and patent analysis technologies, this paper proposes a computer-aided approach for product technology maturity forecasting. It can overcome the shortcomings of the current methods.

  2. Technology Maturity is Technology Superiority

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-09-09

    Dominant Air Power: Design For Tomorrow…Deliver Today 2 TECHNOLOGY MATURITY CONFERENCE • ONE DEFINITION OF MATURITY – GOOD JUDGEMENT COMES FROM...EXPERIENCE—EXPERIENCE COMES FROM BAD JUDGEMENT Dominant Air Power: Design For Tomorrow…Deliver Today 3 TECHNOLOGY MATURITY CONFERENCE • THIS WILL BE A...2008 TECHNOLOGY MATURITY CONFERENCE “ TECHNOLOGY MATURITY IS TECHNOLOGY SUPERIORITY” Aeronautical Systems Center Dr. Tom Christian ASC/EN, WPAFB OH

  3. Maturity in technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Alberts

    1988-03-01

    Full Text Available The concept is developed that modern technology, because of its relationship with pure science, can never really become mature, but will always grow as the pool of scientific knowledge grows. Parameters indicating to some extent the degree of technological prowess in a society are compared for a spectrum of countries. It is clear that in spite of some internationally outstanding successes. South Africa must be regarded on average as a developing society.

  4. Persistent forecasting of disruptive technologies

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Committee on Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies; National Research Council

    ...) and the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) tasked the Committee for Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies with providing guidance and insight on how to build a persistent forecasting system to predict, analyze, and reduce the impact...

  5. Technology maturity and technology development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Underhill, Gary K.; Carlson, Ronald A.; Clendinning, William A.; Erdos, Jozsef; Gault, John; Hall, James W.; Jones, Robert L.; Michael, Herbert K.; Powell, Paul H.; Riemann, Carl F.; Rios-Castellon, Lorenzo; Shepherd, Burchard P.; Wilson, John S.

    1976-01-01

    All of the work reported in the preceding chapters was performed in order to assess the technical, economic, and energetic feasibility of proceeding with more detailed studies of the geopressured geothermal resource. The preliminary conceptual design and costing activities represented the prime activity for component by component review of the maturity of the technology available for resource utilization facilities. The economics and energetics studies focussed attentions on the areas of major capital and energy investment; these results comprise a useful guide for focussing design in order to reduce initial and operations and maintenance costs and/or investment. The following presents a discussion of the primary technical problems identified.

  6. Forecasting for strengthening technological development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aida Mayerly Fúquene Montañez

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Producing technological innovation is currently one of the key items in being more competitive. However, production sectors are facing great challenges, including analysing a large amount of available technological and market information regarding the en- vironment for strategic decision-making and being able to launch themselves onto the market with technological developments bringing the desired economic returns. Several tools for analysing information have emerged for reducing the uncertainty of tech- nological and market changes. This article provides conceptual and reflective elements so that forecasting strengthens technolo- gical development (TD. Forecasting is initially proposed as being one of the future methods of analysis having a significant im- pact on decision-making, mainly within the field of economics but which could be extrapolated to making a contribution to TD. The techniques which have been the recent instrument for collecting information for producing forecasting are described, as is work about the concept of surveillance/monitoring and the processes used for coordinating such approaches. It can thus be sta- ted that they provide an excellent basis for strengthening TD by providing platforms for new or improved developments in pro- cesses or products. Reflection about these aspects provides perspectives for implementing technological forecasting (TF in pro- duction systems so that they obtain efficient and concrete results via deterministic methods as input in decision-making in techno- logy regarding its middle- and long-term competitiveness.

  7. A Delphi forecast of technology in education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, B. E.

    1973-01-01

    The results are reported of a Delphi forecast of the utilization and social impacts of large-scale educational telecommunications technology. The focus is on both forecasting methodology and educational technology. The various methods of forecasting used by futurists are analyzed from the perspective of the most appropriate method for a prognosticator of educational technology, and review and critical analysis are presented of previous forecasts and studies. Graphic responses, summarized comments, and a scenario of education in 1990 are presented.

  8. Hydrocarbon Rocket Technology Impact Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuber, Eric; Prasadh, Nishant; Edwards, Stephen; Mavris, Dimitri N.

    2012-01-01

    Ever since the Apollo program ended, the development of launch propulsion systems in the US has fallen drastically, with only two new booster engine developments, the SSME and the RS-68, occurring in the past few decades.1 In recent years, however, there has been an increased interest in pursuing more effective launch propulsion technologies in the U.S., exemplified by the NASA Office of the Chief Technologist s inclusion of Launch Propulsion Systems as the first technological area in the Space Technology Roadmaps2. One area of particular interest to both government agencies and commercial entities has been the development of hydrocarbon engines; NASA and the Air Force Research Lab3 have expressed interest in the use of hydrocarbon fuels for their respective SLS Booster and Reusable Booster System concepts, and two major commercially-developed launch vehicles SpaceX s Falcon 9 and Orbital Sciences Antares feature engines that use RP-1 kerosene fuel. Compared to engines powered by liquid hydrogen, hydrocarbon-fueled engines have a greater propellant density (usually resulting in a lighter overall engine), produce greater propulsive force, possess easier fuel handling and loading, and for reusable vehicle concepts can provide a shorter turnaround time between launches. These benefits suggest that a hydrocarbon-fueled launch vehicle would allow for a cheap and frequent means of access to space.1 However, the time and money required for the development of a new engine still presents a major challenge. Long and costly design, development, testing and evaluation (DDT&E) programs underscore the importance of identifying critical technologies and prioritizing investment efforts. Trade studies must be performed on engine concepts examining the affordability, operability, and reliability of each concept, and quantifying the impacts of proposed technologies. These studies can be performed through use of the Technology Impact Forecasting (TIF) method. The Technology Impact

  9. Commercial Space with Technology Maturation

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCleskey, Carey M.; Rhodes, Russell E.; Robinson, John W.

    2013-01-01

    To provide affordable space transportation we must be capable of using common fixed assets and the infrastructure for multiple purposes simultaneously. The Space Shuttle was operated for thirty years, but was not able to establish an effective continuous improvement program because of the high risk to the crew on every mission. An unmanned capability is needed to provide an acceptable risk to the primary mission. This paper is intended to present a case where a commercial space venture could share the large fixed cost of operating the infrastructure with the government while the government provides new advanced technology that is focused on reduced operating cost to the common launch transportation system. A conceivable commercial space venture could provide educational entertainment for the country's youth that would stimulate their interest in the science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) through access at entertainment parks or the existing Space Visitor Centers. The paper uses this example to demonstrate how growing public-private space market demand will re-orient space transportation industry priorities in flight and ground system design and technology development, and how the infrastructure is used and shared.

  10. Forecasting methods for computer technology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Worlton, W.J.

    1978-01-01

    How well the computer site manager avoids future dangers and takes advantage of future opportunities depends to a considerable degree on how much anticipatory information he has available. People who rise in management are expected with each successive promotion to concern themselves with events further in the future. It is the function of technology projection to increase this stock of information about possible future developments in order to put planning and decision making on a more rational basis. Past efforts at computer technology projections have an accuracy that declines exponentially with time. Thus, precisely defined technology projections beyond about three years should be used with considerable caution. This paper reviews both subjective and objective methods of technology projection and gives examples of each. For an integrated view of future prospects in computer technology, a framework for technology projection is proposed.

  11. Forecasting methods for computer technology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Worlton, W.J.

    1978-01-01

    How well the computer site manager avoids future dangers and takes advantage of future opportunities depends to a considerable degree on how much anticipatory information he has available. People who rise in management are expected with each successive promotion to concern themselves with events further in the future. It is the function of technology projection to increase this stock of information about possible future developments in order to put planning and decision making on a more rational basis. Past efforts at computer technology projections have an accuracy that declines exponentially with time. Thus, precisely defined technology projections beyond about three years should be used with considerable caution. This paper reviews both subjective and objective methods of technology projection and gives examples of each. For an integrated view of future prospects in computer technology, a framework for technology projection is proposed.

  12. Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Information Technology and Services--Lessons from Home Video Forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klopfenstein, Bruce C.

    1989-01-01

    Describes research that examined the strengths and weaknesses of technological forecasting methods by analyzing forecasting studies made for home video players. The discussion covers assessments and explications of correct and incorrect forecasting assumptions, and their implications for forecasting the adoption of home information technologies…

  13. Forecasting and management of technology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Roper, A. T

    2011-01-01

    ... the authors see as the innovations to technology management in the last 17 years: the Internet; the greater focus on group decision-making including process management and mechanism design; and desktop software that has transformed the analytical capabilities of technology managers"--Provided by publisher.

  14. Forecasting and management of technology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Roper, A. T

    2011-01-01

    "The new, revised edition of this book will build on this knowledge in the context of business organizations that now place a greater emphasis on technology to stay on the cutting edge of development...

  15. A Quantitative Approach for Measuring Technological Forecasting Capability

    OpenAIRE

    Ayhan, Mustafa Batuhan; Oztemel, Ercan

    2013-01-01

    Successful technological forecasting is important to invest scarce funds to emerging technologies. A generic model to measure the success of forecasting overall technological changes is introduced in this paper, called degree of Technological Forecasting Capability. It measures the success rate of forecasts in manufacturing processes based on four important aspects of a manufacturing system; Flow Time, Quantity/Day, Scrap Ratio, and New Investment Revenue. The proposed approach has been verif...

  16. Forecasting Technological Discontinuities in the ICT Industry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoisl, Karin; Stelzer, Tobias; Biala, Stefanie

    2015-01-01

    Building on the existing literature on evolutionary innovation and technological change, this paper aims to identify potential signals of technological discontinuities and to obtain assessments of experts to what extent these signals help them to predict discontinuities. Furthermore, we analyze...... in the ICT industry. The conjoint approach allows for a simulation of the forecasting process and considers utility trade-offs. The results show that for both types of experts the perceived benefit of users most highly contributes to predicting technological discontinuities. Internal experts assign more...... insights to the literature on R&D and innovation management....

  17. [Forecasting medical technologies--a global overview].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tal, Orna

    2011-02-01

    Forecasting new medical technologies is a crucial stage in the process of decision-making in health care systems on national, organizational, professional and personal levels. Knowing what is on the horizon is essential. It is a tool facilitating preparedness and planning for updating health care in the western world. The challenge is to identify new promising technologies at an early stage. This is due to the uncertainty in estimating developing trends and consequences (clinical, financial, political, legal, social and ethical). A balance must be found between the desire to adopt new emerging technologies and the necessity for accountability n basing decisions on efficient evidence. Scarce resources, pervading health systems everywhere, emphasize the need for this mechanism to justify and improve health system determinations. Planning for the future has expanded into new medical fields, thereby reinforcing the importance of national forecasting bodies. This article presents the basic terminology and principles of medical technology forecasting and reviews the agencies involved in early warning systems including Israel.

  18. Maturing Technologies for Stirling Space Power Generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Scott D.; Nowlin, Brentley C.; Dobbs, Michael W.; Schmitz, Paul C.; Huth, James

    2016-01-01

    Stirling Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS) are being developed as an option to provide power on future space science missions where robotic spacecraft will orbit, flyby, land or rove. A Stirling Radioisotope Generator (SRG) could offer space missions a more efficient power system that uses one fourth of the nuclear fuel and decreases the thermal footprint of the current state of the art. The RPS Program Office, working in collaboration with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), manages projects to develop thermoelectric and dynamic power systems, including Stirling Radioisotope Generators (SRGs). The Stirling Cycle Technology Development (SCTD) Project, located at Glenn Research Center (GRC), is developing Stirling-based subsystems, including convertors and controllers. The SCTD Project also performs research that focuses on a wide variety of objectives, including increasing convertor temperature capability to enable new environments, improving system reliability or fault tolerance, reducing mass or size, and developing advanced concepts that are mission enabling. Research activity includes maturing subsystems, assemblies, and components to prepare them for infusion into future convertor and generator designs. The status of several technology development efforts are described here. As part of the maturation process, technologies are assessed for readiness in higher-level subsystems. To assess the readiness level of the Dual Convertor Controller (DCC), a Technology Readiness Assessment (TRA) was performed and the process and results are shown. Stirling technology research is being performed by the SCTD Project for NASA's RPS Program Office, where tasks focus on maturation of Stirling-based systems and subsystems for future space science missions.

  19. A Maturity Analysis of Big Data Technologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radu BONCEA

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In recent years Big Data technologies have been developed at faster pace due to increase in demand from applications that generate and process vast amount of data. The Cloud Computing and the Internet of Things are the main drivers for developing enterprise solutions that support Business Intelligence which in turn, creates new opportunities and new business models. An enterprise can now collect data about its internal processes, process this data to gain new insights and business value and make better decisions. And this is the reason why Big Data is now seen as a vital component in any enterprise architecture. In this article the maturity of several Big Data technologies is put under analysis. For each technology there are several aspects considered, such as development status, market usage, licensing policies, availability for certifications, adoption, support for cloud computing and enterprise.

  20. Technology Development Roadmaps - a Systematic Approach to Maturing Needed Technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    John W. Colllins; Layne Pincock

    2010-07-01

    Abstract. Planning and decision making represent important challenges for all projects. This paper presents the steps needed to assess technical readiness and determine the path forward to mature the technologies required for the Next Generation Nuclear Plant. A Technology Readiness Assessment is used to evaluate the required systems, subsystems, and components (SSC) comprising the desired plant architecture and assess the SSCs against established Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs). A validated TRL baseline is then established for the proposed physical design. Technology Development Roadmaps are generated to define the path forward and focus project research and development and engineering tasks on advancing the technologies to increasing levels of maturity. Tasks include modeling, testing, bench-scale demonstrations, pilot-scale demonstrations, and fully integrated prototype demonstrations. The roadmaps identify precise project objectives and requirements; create a consensus vision of project needs; provide a structured, defensible, decision-based project plan; and, minimize project costs and schedules.

  1. Extravehicular Activity Technology Development Status and Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chullen, Cinda; Westheimer, David T.

    2011-01-01

    The goal of NASA s current EVA technology effort is to further develop technologies that will be used to demonstrate a robust EVA system that has application for a variety of future missions including microgravity and surface EVA. Overall the objectives will be to reduce system mass, reduce consumables and maintenance, increase EVA hardware robustness and life, increase crew member efficiency and autonomy, and enable rapid vehicle egress and ingress. Over the past several years, NASA realized a tremendous increase in EVA system development as part of the Exploration Technology Development Program and the Constellation Program. The evident demand for efficient and reliable EVA technologies, particularly regenerable technologies was apparent under these former programs and will continue to be needed as future mission opportunities arise. The technological need for EVA in space has been realized over the last several decades by the Gemini, Apollo, Skylab, Space Shuttle, and the International Space Station (ISS) programs. EVAs were critical to the success of these programs. Now with the ISS extension to 2028 in conjunction with a current forecasted need of at least eight EVAs per year, the EVA hardware life and limited availability of the Extravehicular Mobility Units (EMUs) will eventually become a critical issue. The current EMU has successfully served EVA demands by performing critical operations to assemble the ISS and provide repairs of satellites such as the Hubble Space Telescope. However, as the life of ISS and the vision for future mission opportunities are realized, a new EVA systems capability will be needed and the current architectures and technologies under development offer significant improvements over the current flight systems. In addition to ISS, potential mission applications include EVAs for missions to Near Earth Objects (NEO), Phobos, or future surface missions. Surface missions could include either exploration of the Moon or Mars. Providing an

  2. Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC) Technology Maturation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Wayne A.; Wilson, Scott; Collins, Josh; Wilson, Kyle

    2016-01-01

    The Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC) development effort was initiated by NASA Glenn Research Center with contractor Sunpower, Inc., to develop high-efficiency thermal-to-electric power conversion technology for NASA Radioisotope Power Systems (RPSs). Early successful performance demonstrations led to the expansion of the project as well as adoption of the technology by the Department of Energy (DOE) and system integration contractor Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company as part of the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) flight project. The ASRG integrates a pair of ASCs to convert the heat from a pair of General Purpose Heat Source (GPHS) modules into electrical power. The expanded NASA ASC effort included development of several generations of ASC prototypes or engineering units to help prepare the ASC technology and Sunpower for flight implementation. Sunpower later had two parallel contracts allowing the last of the NASA engineering units called ASC-E3 to serve as pathfinders for the ASC-F flight convertors being built for DOE. The ASC-E3 convertors utilized the ASC-F flight specifications and were built using the ASC-F design and process documentation. Shortly after the first ASC-F pair achieved initial operation, due to budget constraints, the DOE ASRG flight development contract was terminated. NASA continues to invest in the development of Stirling RPS technology including continued production of the ASC-E3 convertors, seven of which have been delivered with one additional unit in production. Starting in fiscal year 2015, Stirling Convertor Technology Maturation has been reorganized as an element of the RPS Stirling Cycle Technology Development (SCTD) Project and long-term plans for continued Stirling technology advancement are in reformulation. This paper provides a status on the ASC project, an overview of advancements made in the design and production of the ASC at Sunpower, and a summary of acceptance tests, reliability tests, and tactical

  3. Forecasting the impact of virtual environment technology on maintenance training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlager, Mark S.; Boman, Duane; Piantanida, Tom; Stephenson, Robert

    1993-01-01

    To assist NASA and the Air Force in determining how and when to invest in virtual environment (VE) technology for maintenance training, we identified possible roles for VE technology in such training, assessed its cost-effectiveness relative to existing technologies, and formulated recommendations for a research agenda that would address instructional and system development issues involved in fielding a VE training system. In the first phase of the study, we surveyed VE developers to forecast capabilities, maturity, and estimated costs for VE component technologies. We then identified maintenance tasks and their training costs through interviews with maintenance technicians, instructors, and training developers. Ten candidate tasks were selected from two classes of maintenance tasks (seven aircraft maintenance and three space maintenance) using five criteria developed to identify types of tasks most likely to benefit from VE training. Three tasks were used as specific cases for cost-benefit analysis. In formulating research recommendations, we considered three aspects of feasibility: technological considerations, cost-effectiveness, and anticipated R&D efforts. In this paper, we describe the major findings in each of these areas and suggest research efforts that we believe will help achieve the goal of a cost-effective VE maintenance training system by the next decade.

  4. Potential Technologies for Assessing Risk Associated with a Mesoscale Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-10-01

    the actual model-forecast error—the 500-hPa root-mean-square error (RMSE) height error. Future work should also consider other forecast metrics such...ARL-TN-0708 ● OCT 2015 US Army Research Laboratory Potential Technologies for Assessing Risk Associated with a Mesoscale...OCT 2015 US Army Research Laboratory Potential Technologies for Assessing Risk Associated with a Mesoscale Forecast by Patrick A

  5. TRIZ TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING AS QFD INPUT WITHIN THE NPD ACTIVITIES

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Coulibaly Solomani; Hua Zhongsheng; Shi Qin; Wang Wei

    2004-01-01

    As a result of the fierceness of business competition,companies,to remain competitive,have to charm their customers by anticipating their needs and being able to rapidly develop exciting new products for them.To overcome this challenge,technology forecasting is considered as a powerful tool in today's business environment,while there are as many success stories as there are failures,a good application of this method will give a good result.A methodology of integration of patterns or lines of technology evolution in TRIZ parlance is presented,which is also known as TRIZ technology forecasting,as input to the QFD process to design a new product.For this purpose,TRIZ technology forecasting,one of the TRIZ major tools,is discussed and some benefits compared to the traditional forecasting techniques are highlighted.Then a methodology to integrate TRIZ technology forecasting and QFD process is highlighted.

  6. Retrospective Analysis of Technology Forecasting: In-Scope Extension

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-13

    were the means used to collect and verify forecasts, as well as the use of deep web research and broad sourcing. The study methodology is summarized in...include: • Searching the “ deep web ” to find forecast documents that are not indexed by standard search engines and therefore cannot be retrieved...used books and published reports that contain technological forecasts To search the deep web , we contracted with Bright Planet, which used proprietary

  7. Forecasting and Technology Management: Statistical Theory and Methodological Issues

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henning

    technology. The conclusion is that widespread awareness of the growing force of technology and increasing concern over its impact means that forecasting of technological development and consequences is absolutely essential in many managerial decision situations. Examples cover e.g. identification...... of directions and targets for a R and D project, monitoring of a given area by a public agency, and evaluation of the future competitive situation for a company. This paper gives a brief introduction to the field of technological forecasting especially in relation to the strategic planning process...... as the essential phase where decisions concerning introduction of new technology are taken in companies. It includes as well a description of the problems related to the marketing area and of methods applicable in practising technological forecasting....

  8. Research and Development for Technology Evolution Potential Forecasting System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Changqing; Cao, Shukun; Wang, Yuzeng; Ai, Changsheng; Ze, Xiangbo

    Technology forecasting is a powerful weapon for many enterprises to gain an animate future. Evolutionary potential radar plot is a necessary step of some valuable methods to help the technology managers with right technical strategy. A software system for Technology Evolution Potential Forecasting (TEPF) with automatic radar plot drawing is introduced in this paper. The framework of the system and the date structure describing the concrete evolution pattern are illustrated in details. And the algorithm for radar plot drawing is researched. It is proved that the TEPF system is an effective tool during the technology strategy analyzing process with a referenced case study.

  9. FORECASTING AUTOMOBILE WARRANTY PERFORMANCE IN PRESENCE OF ‘MATURING DATA' PHENOMENA USING MULTILAYER PERCEPTRON NEURAL NETWORK

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Bharatendra RAI; Nanua SINGH

    2005-01-01

    Automobile companies that spend billions of dollars annually towards warranty cost, give high priority to warranty reduction programs. Forecasting of automobile warranty performance plays an important role towards these efforts. The forecasting process involves prediction of not only the specific months-in-service (MIS) warranty performance at certain future time, but also at future MIS values. However, 'maturing data' (also called warranty growth) phenomena that causes warranty performance at specific MIS values to change with time, makes such a forecasting task challenging.Although warranty forecasting methods such as log-log plots and dynamic linear models appear in this paper we use an artificial neural network for the forecasting of warranty performance in presence testing errors using response surface methodology. This application shows the effectiveness of neural phenomena.

  10. Web Based Technologies to Support High Level Process Maturity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. V. Sharmila

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses the uses of Web based Technologies to support High Level Process Maturity in an organization. It also provides an overview of CMMI, focusing on the importance of centralized data storage and data access for sustaining high maturity levels of CMMI. Further, elaboration is made on the web based technology, stressing that change over to Web Based Application is extremely helpful to maintain the centralized data repository, to collect data for process capability baseline, and to track process performance management, with reduced maintenance effort and ease of data access. A case study analysis of advantages of adopting Web Based Technology is also narrated. Finally the paper concludes that the sustenance of High level Process maturity can be achieved by adopting web application technology.

  11. Health Technology Assessment: a field still maturing!

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renaldo N. Battista

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available

    With this issue’s focus on Health Technology Assessment (HTA, the Italian Journal of Public Health has tackled an area of growing importance in today’s increasingly complex health care delivery systems.

    As the articles in this issue demonstrate, HTA has grown from a relatively narrow technical focus to a form of policy research underway in dozens of countries. Since its inception just over three decades ago,HTA has evolved through three distinct phases: the machine, the disease and the delivery mode, with the third of these still underway.

    As the focus has shifted from machines to disease conditions to service delivery approaches, HTA has drawn on research and modes of discourse from a growing variety of disciplines. Thus, despite the evolution that continues, HTA remains, at its core, both multidisciplinary and pragmatic, for the strengths of HTA arise from its integration of the efforts of actors in multiple, diverse disciplines with a view to producing knowledge that will assist decision-makers. The machine phase was marked by a focus on the technical performance of health technologies, often embodying innovative approaches to diagnosis or treatment of human illness.

    Given the newness and costliness of many technologies selected for assessment, a significant emphasis was placed on assessing the safety of these devices. Imaging technologies were the subject of assessment in many settings, perhaps in part because devices such as the CT scanner produced remarkable visual results that were heralded as affording breakthroughs in diagnosis and treatment. One need only look through the programs of early HTA conferences to see the emphasis on high cost, infrastructure-intensive health technologies that was the hallmark of the machine period.

  12. Comparison of State-Funded Technology Maturation Programs.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Warren, Drake [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hess, Marguerite Evelyn [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2016-12-01

    This study examines the structure and impact of state-funded technology maturation programs that leverage research institutions for economic development throughout the United States. The lessons learned and practices identified from previous experiences will inform Sandia National Laboratories' Government Relations and Technology Partnerships teams as they participate in near-term discussions about the proposed Technology Readiness Gross Receipts Tax Credit and Program, and continue to shape longer-term program and partnership opportunities. This Page Intentionally Left Blank

  13. Technological Forecasting: Methodology Embrapa Brazilian Company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eliane Fernandes Pietrovski

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Structural, economic and social changes are present in organizations. One of the strategies for decision-making, which leads to organizational policies, is the construction of feasible and doable technological scenarios that enable innovations to trigger the processes of technological change. This study to analyze the prospect of technological scenarios in the Brazilian Agricultural Research Agency a public organization of Research, Development and Innovation, based on scenario building in its operating environment. For the methodological procedures, a systemic review addressing the problem of searching for qualitative bias was developed. Taking this study’s point of view, the research is exploratory and descriptive. The sources of data collection were primary and secondary. The technical consistency of prospective scenarios for the company was highlighted in the results of this study, as this was the object of this analysis. Through the collected data it was possible to verify the inferences between literature and the applied method. [JEL Classification: O310].

  14. Computer technology forecast study for general aviation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seacord, C. L.; Vaughn, D.

    1976-01-01

    A multi-year, multi-faceted program is underway to investigate and develop potential improvements in airframes, engines, and avionics for general aviation aircraft. The objective of this study was to assemble information that will allow the government to assess the trends in computer and computer/operator interface technology that may have application to general aviation in the 1980's and beyond. The current state of the art of computer hardware is assessed, technical developments in computer hardware are predicted, and nonaviation large volume users of computer hardware are identified.

  15. Operational flash flood forecasting platform based on grid technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thierion, V.; Ayral, P.-A.; Angelini, V.; Sauvagnargues-Lesage, S.; Nativi, S.; Payrastre, O.

    2009-04-01

    Flash flood events of south of France such as the 8th and 9th September 2002 in the Grand Delta territory caused important economic and human damages. Further to this catastrophic hydrological situation, a reform of flood warning services have been initiated (set in 2006). Thus, this political reform has transformed the 52 existing flood warning services (SAC) in 22 flood forecasting services (SPC), in assigning them territories more hydrological consistent and new effective hydrological forecasting mission. Furthermore, national central service (SCHAPI) has been created to ease this transformation and support local services in their new objectives. New functioning requirements have been identified: - SPC and SCHAPI carry the responsibility to clearly disseminate to public organisms, civil protection actors and population, crucial hydrologic information to better anticipate potential dramatic flood event, - a new effective hydrological forecasting mission to these flood forecasting services seems essential particularly for the flash floods phenomenon. Thus, models improvement and optimization was one of the most critical requirements. Initially dedicated to support forecaster in their monitoring mission, thanks to measuring stations and rainfall radar images analysis, hydrological models have to become more efficient in their capacity to anticipate hydrological situation. Understanding natural phenomenon occuring during flash floods mainly leads present hydrological research. Rather than trying to explain such complex processes, the presented research try to manage the well-known need of computational power and data storage capacities of these services. Since few years, Grid technology appears as a technological revolution in high performance computing (HPC) allowing large-scale resource sharing, computational power using and supporting collaboration across networks. Nowadays, EGEE (Enabling Grids for E-science in Europe) project represents the most important

  16. An improved market penetration model for wind energy technology forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lund, P.D. [Helsinki Univ. of Technology, Espoo (Finland). Advanced Energy Systems

    1995-12-31

    An improved market penetration model with application to wind energy forecasting is presented. In the model, a technology diffusion model and manufacturing learning curve are combined. Based on a 85% progress ratio that was found for European wind manufactures and on wind market statistics, an additional wind power capacity of ca 4 GW is needed in Europe to reach a 30 % price reduction. A full breakthrough to low-cost utility bulk power markets could be achieved at a 24 GW level. (author)

  17. Forecasting of innovative activity on the basis of application of technology of Foresight

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nazarova Natalia Leonidovna

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available In article the basic questions of forecasting of innovative activity of economic systems are considered. Forsyte's bases are considered. Necessity, importance, success of application of technology of Forsyte for forecasting of innovative activity are proved.

  18. Technology Maturation in Preparation for the Cryogenic Propellant Storage and Transfer (CPST) Technology Demonstration Mission (TDM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Michael L.; Doherty, Michael P.; Moder, Jeffrey P.

    2014-01-01

    In support of its goal to find an innovative path for human space exploration, NASA embarked on the Cryogenic Propellant Storage and Transfer (CPST) Project, a Technology Demonstration Mission (TDM) to test and validate key cryogenic capabilities and technologies required for future exploration elements, opening up the architecture for large in-space cryogenic propulsion stages and propellant depots. Recognizing that key Cryogenic Fluid Management (CFM) technologies anticipated for on-orbit (flight) demonstration would benefit from additional maturation to a readiness level appropriate for infusion into the design of the flight demonstration, the NASA Headquarters Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD) authorized funding for a one-year technology maturation phase of the CPST project. The strategy, proposed by the CPST Project Manager, focused on maturation through modeling, concept studies, and ground tests of the storage and fluid transfer of CFM technology sub-elements and components that were lower than a Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of 5. A technology maturation plan (TMP) was subsequently approved which described: the CFM technologies selected for maturation, the ground testing approach to be used, quantified success criteria of the technologies, hardware and data deliverables, and a deliverable to provide an assessment of the technology readiness after completion of the test, study or modeling activity. The specific technologies selected were grouped into five major categories: thick multilayer insulation, tank applied active thermal control, cryogenic fluid transfer, propellant gauging, and analytical tool development. Based on the success of the technology maturation efforts, the CPST project was approved to proceed to flight system development.

  19. Forecasting and Technology Management: Statistical Theory and Methodological Issues

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henning

    The degree of development in the technical capability of many new devices and materials over their predecessors often is in multiples of improvement. These gains in performance are so great that they abruptly and drastically alter the means, effects, time, or costs of doing things. Thus, they dis......The degree of development in the technical capability of many new devices and materials over their predecessors often is in multiples of improvement. These gains in performance are so great that they abruptly and drastically alter the means, effects, time, or costs of doing things. Thus...... technology. The conclusion is that widespread awareness of the growing force of technology and increasing concern over its impact means that forecasting of technological development and consequences is absolutely essential in many managerial decision situations. Examples cover e.g. identification...

  20. Extravehicular Activity (EVA) Technology Development Status and Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chullen, Cinda; Westheimer, David T.

    2010-01-01

    Beginning in Fiscal Year (FY) 2011, Extravehicular activity (EVA) technology development became a technology foundational domain under a new program Enabling Technology Development and Demonstration. The goal of the EVA technology effort is to further develop technologies that will be used to demonstrate a robust EVA system that has application for a variety of future missions including microgravity and surface EVA. Overall the objectives will be reduce system mass, reduce consumables and maintenance, increase EVA hardware robustness and life, increase crew member efficiency and autonomy, and enable rapid vehicle egress and ingress. Over the past several years, NASA realized a tremendous increase in EVA system development as part of the Exploration Technology Development Program and the Constellation Program. The evident demand for efficient and reliable EVA technologies, particularly regenerable technologies was apparent under these former programs and will continue to be needed as future mission opportunities arise. The technological need for EVA in space has been realized over the last several decades by the Gemini, Apollo, Skylab, Space Shuttle, and the International Space Station (ISS) programs. EVAs were critical to the success of these programs. Now with the ISS extension to 2028 in conjunction with a current forecasted need of at least eight EVAs per year, the EVA technology life and limited availability of the EMUs will become a critical issue eventually. The current Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU) has vastly served EVA demands by performing critical operations to assemble the ISS and provide repairs of satellites such as the Hubble Space Telescope. However, as the life of ISS and the vision for future mission opportunities are realized, a new EVA systems capability could be an option for the future mission applications building off of the technology development over the last several years. Besides ISS, potential mission applications include EVAs for

  1. Case studies on forecasting for innovative technologies: frequent revisions improve accuracy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lerner, Jeffrey C; Robertson, Diane C; Goldstein, Sara M

    2015-02-01

    Health technology forecasting is designed to provide reliable predictions about costs, utilization, diffusion, and other market realities before the technologies enter routine clinical use. In this article we address three questions central to forecasting's usefulness: Are early forecasts sufficiently accurate to help providers acquire the most promising technology and payers to set effective coverage policies? What variables contribute to inaccurate forecasts? How can forecasters manage the variables to improve accuracy? We analyzed forecasts published between 2007 and 2010 by the ECRI Institute on four technologies: single-room proton beam radiation therapy for various cancers; digital breast tomosynthesis imaging technology for breast cancer screening; transcatheter aortic valve replacement for serious heart valve disease; and minimally invasive robot-assisted surgery for various cancers. We then examined revised ECRI forecasts published in 2013 (digital breast tomosynthesis) and 2014 (the other three topics) to identify inaccuracies in the earlier forecasts and explore why they occurred. We found that five of twenty early predictions were inaccurate when compared with the updated forecasts. The inaccuracies pertained to two technologies that had more time-sensitive variables to consider. The case studies suggest that frequent revision of forecasts could improve accuracy, especially for complex technologies whose eventual use is governed by multiple interactive factors. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

  2. Fusion of Hurricane Models and Observations: Developing the Technology to Improve the Forecasts Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Develop the technology to provide the fusion of observations and operational model simulations to help improve the understanding and forecasting of hurricane...

  3. Forecasting and observability: critical technologies for system operations with high PV penetration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alet, Pierre-Jean; Efthymiou, Venizelos; Graditi, Giorgio

    2016-01-01

    Forecasting and monitoring technologies for photovoltaics are required on different spatial and temporal scales by multiple actors, from the owners of PV systems to transmission system operators. In this paper the Grid integration working group of the European Technology and Innovation Platform...... – Photovoltaics (ETIP PV) reviews the different use cases for these technologies, their current status, and the need for future developments. Power system operations require a real-time view of PV production for managing power reserves and for feeding shortterm forecasts. They also require forecasts on all...... for a cost/benefit analysis since the forecasting error can be linked to the prices charged for energy imbalance...

  4. An assessment of the value of seasonal forecasting technology for Western Australian farmers

    OpenAIRE

    Petersen, Elizabeth H.; Fraser, Rob W.

    2001-01-01

    Of the number of seasonal forecasting systems that have been developed of late, none are of practical benefit to Western Australian farmers. This study aims to improve the methodology for assessing the value of forecasting technology ex ante to its development, using the Merredin agricultural region of Western Australia as an illustration. Results suggest that a seasonal forecasting technology that provides a 30 per cent decrease in seasonal uncertainty increases annual profits by approximate...

  5. Forecasting and observability: critical technologies for system operations with high PV penetration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alet, Pierre-Jean; Efthymiou, Venizelos; Graditi, Giorgio

    2016-01-01

    Forecasting and monitoring technologies for photovoltaics are required on different spatial and temporal scales by multiple actors, from the owners of PV systems to transmission system operators. In this paper the Grid integration working group of the European Technology and Innovation Platform –...... for a cost/benefit analysis since the forecasting error can be linked to the prices charged for energy imbalance......Forecasting and monitoring technologies for photovoltaics are required on different spatial and temporal scales by multiple actors, from the owners of PV systems to transmission system operators. In this paper the Grid integration working group of the European Technology and Innovation Platform...... – Photovoltaics (ETIP PV) reviews the different use cases for these technologies, their current status, and the need for future developments. Power system operations require a real-time view of PV production for managing power reserves and for feeding shortterm forecasts. They also require forecasts on all...

  6. Forecasting, Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael A. Fosberg

    1987-01-01

    Future improvements in the meteorological forecasts used in fire management will come from improvements in three areas: observational systems, forecast techniques, and postprocessing of forecasts and better integration of this information into the fire management process.

  7. COMPUTER MODELING AS ONE OF CONTEMPORARY METHODS OF FORECASTING IN PHARMACEUTICAL TECHNOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. O. Losenkova

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The work presents researches devoted to the forecasting of compatibility of additive and drug substances with a method of computer modeling for its use in composition elaboration and technology of transdermal therapeutic systems.

  8. The Modeling and Forecasting of the Technological and Innovation Development of a Transition-Economy Country

    OpenAIRE

    Kononenko, Igor; Repin, Anton

    2006-01-01

    The rule of GDP change influence on the investment inflows into the country’s economy for transition-economy countries has been found. The method for forecasting the innovational and scientific-technological development of a country, based on consequent use of simulation model of innovational and scientific-technological development of a country and of the method of forecasting the investment inflows into economy has been developed. The method was tested on the Ukrainian statistical data for ...

  9. Past speculations of future health technologies: a description of technologies predicted in 15 forecasting studies published between 1986 and 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doos, Lucy; Packer, Claire; Ward, Derek; Simpson, Sue; Stevens, Andrew

    2017-07-31

    To describe and classify health technologies predicted in forecasting studies. A portrait describing health technologies predicted in 15 forecasting studies published between 1986 and 2010 that were identified in a previous systematic review. Health technologies are classified according to their type, purpose and clinical use; relating these to the original purpose and timing of the forecasting studies. All health-related technologies predicted in 15 forecasting studies identified in a previously published systematic review. Outcomes related to (1) each forecasting study including country, year, intention and forecasting methods used and (2) the predicted technologies including technology type, purpose, targeted clinical area and forecast timeframe. Of the 896 identified health-related technologies, 685 (76.5%) were health technologies with an explicit or implied health application and included in our study. Of these, 19.1% were diagnostic or imaging tests, 14.3% devices or biomaterials, 12.6% information technology systems, eHealth or mHealth and 12% drugs. The majority of the technologies were intended to treat or manage disease (38.1%) or diagnose or monitor disease (26.1%). The most frequent targeted clinical areas were infectious diseases followed by cancer, circulatory and nervous system disorders. The most frequent technology types were for: infectious diseases-prophylactic vaccines (45.8%), cancer-drugs (40%), circulatory disease-devices and biomaterials (26.3%), and diseases of the nervous system-equally devices and biomaterials (25%) and regenerative medicine (25%). The mean timeframe for forecasting was 11.6 years (range 0-33 years, median=10, SD=6.6). The forecasting timeframe significantly differed by technology type (p=0.002), the intent of the forecasting group (p<0.001) and the methods used (p<001). While description and classification of predicted health-related technologies is crucial in preparing healthcare systems for adopting new innovations

  10. Enabling Dedicated, Affordable Space Access Through Aggressive Technology Maturation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Jonathan; Kibbey, Tim; Lampton, Pat; Brown, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    demonstration in laboratory and flight environments. This effort will provide the framework to mature both on-orbit and earth-to-orbit avionics and propulsion technologies while also providing dedicated, affordable access to LEO for cubesat class payloads.

  11. Assessing public forecasts to encourage accountability: The case of MIT's Technology Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, Jeffrey

    2017-01-01

    Although high degrees of reliability have been found for many types of forecasts purportedly due to the existence of accountability, public forecasts of technology are rarely assessed and continue to have a poor reputation. This paper's analysis of forecasts made by MIT's Technology Review provides a rare assessment and thus a means to encourage accountability. It first shows that few of the predicted "breakthrough technologies" currently have large markets. Only four have sales greater than $10 billion while eight technologies not predicted by Technology Review have sales greater than $10 billion including three with greater than $100 billion and one other with greater than $50 billion. Second, possible reasons for these poor forecasts are then discussed including an over emphasis on the science-based process of technology change, sometimes called the linear model of innovation. Third, this paper describes a different model of technology change, one that is widely used by private companies and that explains the emergence of those technologies that have greater than $10 billion in sales. Fourth, technology change and forecasts are discussed in terms of cognitive biases and mental models.

  12. INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY SERVICE MANAGEMENT PROCESSES MATURITY IN THE BRAZILIAN FEDERAL DIRECT ADMINISTRATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Albeti Vieira Vitoriano

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This work aims at the scrutiny of the current situation of the Information Technology Service Management practices within the Brazilian Federal Direct Administration, from the perceptions of the Information Technology Managers of twelve Ministries. The methodology used followed the Process Maturity Framework as a guideline, which is a maturity model whose patterns are described in ITIL v3. The work consists of interviews with questions related to the five maturity levels, as follows: initial, repetitive, defined, managed and optimized. Information on the five basic Information Technology Service Management processes was collected. Besides the classification of the maturity levels of the processes, the interviews allowed us to gather information about the possible causes that hinder the improvement of the maturity of the processes. The outcomes of the survey on the researched ministries showed low maturity level in all the assessed service management processes. The Incident Management Process presented the highest level of maturity, while Problem Management proved to be the most flawed one, in relation to maturity. The other assessed processes, like Change Management, Service Assets and Configuration Management and Release and Deployment Management presented some sort of homogeneity among the ministries. As for the probable causes that hinder the improvement of the maturity level of the Information Technology Service Management processes, pointed by the managers, the following one stand out: the reduced staff, the lack of resources, the gap between the organizational targets and their processes aims, and the lack of skilled labor.

  13. Research on Forecast Technology of Mine Gas Emission Based on Fuzzy Data Mining(FDM)

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Chang-kai; WANG Yao-cai; WANG Jun-wei

    2004-01-01

    The safe production of coalmine can be further improved by forecasting the quantity of gas emission based on the real-time data and historical data which the gas monitoring system has saved. By making use of the advantages of data warehouse and data mining technology for processing large quantity of redundancy data, the method and its application of forecasting mine gas emission quantity based on FDM were studied. The constructing fuzzy resembling relation and clustering analysis were proposed, which the potential relationship inside the gas emission data may be found. The mode finds model and forecast model were presented, and the detailed approach to realize this forecast was also proposed, which have been applied to forecast the gas emission quantity efficiently.

  14. New Technology Trends in Education: Seven Years of Forecasts and Convergence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Sergio; Diaz, Gabriel; Sancristobal, Elio; Gil, Rosario; Castro, Manuel; Peire, Juan

    2011-01-01

    Each year since 2004, a new Horizon Report has been released. Each edition attempts to forecast the most promising technologies likely to impact on education along three horizons: the short term (the year of the report), the mid-term (the next 2 years) and the long term (the next 4 years). This paper analyzes the evolution of technology trends…

  15. PATTERNS OF SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT AND THEIR USE IN FORECASTING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. I. Komkov

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In article laws of scientifically-technological development are considered. Their number concern traditional, base and new, formed. Possibilities and ways of the account of the listed laws are shown at forecasting of prospects of scientifically-technological development.

  16. Forecasting the innovation and technology based economic development as a component of the choice of anti-crisis strategy

    OpenAIRE

    L. Fedulova

    2009-01-01

    The author reveals the role of the technology factor in crisis situations and justifies the significance of the mechanisms of technological forecasting in the choice of strategic guidelines of a country's development. She proposes a conceptual model of the system of scientifico-technological forecasting and shows its place in the innovation based renewal of economic activities.

  17. Forecasting the innovation and technology based economic development as a component of the choice of anti-crisis strategy

    OpenAIRE

    L. Fedulova

    2009-01-01

    The author reveals the role of the technology factor in crisis situations and justifies the significance of the mechanisms of technological forecasting in the choice of strategic guidelines of a country's development. She proposes a conceptual model of the system of scientifico-technological forecasting and shows its place in the innovation based renewal of economic activities.

  18. Image Science Technology Forecasting on offset printing:A Patent Analysis Approach

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Liu Yaojen

    2004-01-01

    Technology forecasting is a important approach which can help researcher to point out what will be of technology in the future. There are many well-developed approaches and methodologies can do technology forecasting well, for example S-curve analysis. Patent analysis is another way to analyze technology development trend. Patent is a kind of intellectual property right can help researcher avoid to infringe patent owned by competitor. Patent analysis can help researcher and corporate find out what are major technology trends and point out what field has low patent infringement risk.It will describe what patent analysis is briefly and how to process, and use patent analysis to analysis image reproduction technology trend. Offset printing technology is the main field discussed. When running analysis will follow the international patent classification (IPC) category and use USPTO patent database.

  19. Green Propellant Infusion Mission Program Development and Technology Maturation

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLean, Christopher H.; Deininger, William D.; Joniatis, John; Aggarwal, Pravin K.; Spores, Ronald A.; Deans, Matthew; Yim, John T.; Bury, Kristen; Martinez, Jonathan; Cardiff, Eric H.; hide

    2014-01-01

    The NASA Space Technology Mission Directorate's (STMD) Green Propellant Infusion Mission (GPIM) Technology Demonstration Mission (TDM) is comprised of a cross-cutting team of domestic spacecraft propulsion and storable green propellant technology experts. This TDM is led by Ball Aerospace & Technologies Corp. (BATC), who will use their BCP- 100 spacecraft to carry a propulsion system payload consisting of one 22 N thruster for primary divert (DeltaV) maneuvers and four 1 N thrusters for attitude control, in a flight demonstration of the AF-M315E technology. The GPIM project has technology infusion team members from all three major market sectors: Industry, NASA, and the Department of Defense (DoD). The GPIM project team includes BATC, includes Aerojet Rocketdyne (AR), Air Force Research Laboratory, Aerospace Systems Directorate, Edwards AFB (AFRL), NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC), NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC), and NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). STMD programmatic and technology oversight is provided by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. The GPIM project shall fly an operational AF-M315E green propulsion subsystem on a Ball-built BCP-100 spacecraft.

  20. Technology Reconciliation in the Remote Sensing ERA of United States Civilian Weather Forecasting: 1957 -1987.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Courain, Margaret Eileen

    This dissertation seeks to advance an understanding of the management of a major technological change in meteorology. The study examines the connection between changes in production and real-time use of data products derived from remote -sensing data collection and the evolution of U.S. civilian weather forecasting 1957-1987. The role of data collection in weather forecasting throughout history is examined, giving most attention to the 1957-1987 period. Critical to the real-time use of remote-sensing data was technology reconciliation. As defined by the author, it is the function or process by which data products and information derived from a new technology are made consistent or congruent with the existing data representations of a science in order to be used effectively. No model had been developed for a technology reconciliation process, or definition of the major role technology reconciliators played in the 30-year evolution of the science of weather forecasting. In order to assess the new remote-sensing data resource and its use in U.S. civilian weather forecasting, a Data Accountability and Review Technique (DART) was developed by the author in 1989. This technique was used to identify 16 of the technology reconciliators who developed and reconciled 25 new remote-sensing data products with the weather charts, maps and computer models of the National Weather Service. In five separate program teams, they were responsible for 15 improvements in the products--forecasts--and 18 improvement in the process of weather forecasting. A model of the technology reconciliation is proposed which can be applied to understanding the contemporary history of other sciences. The model, as well as the methods developed by the author to recognize the process of technology reconciliation has a much more general applicability beyond the sciences. Any field implementing new technology that promises to improve its whole way of working will be faced with the task of technology

  1. Coblation for tonsillectomy in children: an evidence-based update on a maturing technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Udayan K.

    2007-02-01

    Coblation technology (Arthrocare Corp., Sunnyvale, CA, USA) uses plasma-mediated ablation (PMA) for soft-tissue removal. The application of PMA for tonsillectomy has evolved since 1998 through changes in equipment, and surgical techniques. This paper reviews the evidence to date for Coblation tonsillectomy, and offers perspective on novel applications of this maturing technology.

  2. Low-cost hydrogen sensors: Technology maturation progress

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoffheins, B.S.; Rogers, J.E.; Lauf, R.J.; Egert, C.M. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Haberman, D.P. [DCH Technology, Inc., Sherman Oaks, CA (United States)

    1998-04-01

    The authors are developing a low-cost, solid-state hydrogen sensor to support the long-term goals of the Department of Energy (DOE) Hydrogen Program to encourage acceptance and commercialization of renewable energy-based technologies. Development of efficient production, storage, and utilization technologies brings with it the need to detect and pinpoint hydrogen leaks to protect people and equipment. The solid-state hydrogen sensor, developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), is potentially well-suited to meet cost and performance objectives for many of these applications. Under a cooperative research and development Agreement and license agreement, they are teaming with a private company, DCH Technology, Inc., to develop the sensor for specific market applications related to the use of hydrogen as an energy vector. This report describes the current efforts to optimize materials and sensor performance to reach the goals of low-cost fabrication and suitability for relevant application areas.

  3. INVESTIGATION OF AN APPROPRIATE TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING PROCESS FOR SASOL FOR THE NEW ENERGY ERA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Ma

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Sasol is predominantly an energy-based company. The energy industry is undergoing a fundamental transformation that may have a profound impact on Sasol’s overall business. This study has been carried out to investigate the need to establish an appropriate technology forecasting process for the new energy era. Although there exist some evidence of technology forecasting within Sasol, they are scattered and unsophisticated. Technology forecasting as a tool enables managers to make better decisions and encourages networking and knowledge sharing within the organization, an important trait of a ‘Learning Organization’. A theoretical framework of technology forecasting for Sasol is thereby formulated.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Sasol is hoofsaaklik 'n energie-gebaseerde maatskappy. Die energie-industrie ondergaan tans 'n diepgaande transformasie wat 'n wesenlike impak kan hê op Sasol se totale besigheid. Hierdie studie is uitgevoer om die behoefte vir 'n toepaslike tegnologie-vooruitskattingsproses vir die nuwe energie-era te bepaal. Alhoewel daar bewyse bestaan vir tegnologie-vooruitskatting binne Sasol, is dit verspreid en ongesofistikeerd. Tegnologie-vooruitskatting is 'n gereedskapstuk wat bestuurders in staat stel om beter besluite te neem en bevorder die gebruik van netwerke en kennis-uitruiling binne die organisasie, 'n belangrike eienskap van 'n 'Lerende Organisasie'. 'n Teoretiese raamwerk vir tegnologie-vooruitskatting vir Sasol word sodoende geformuleer.

  4. Forecast of technological development in ore mining branches on basis of modernization of technique and technology of mining practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandr Ivanovich Tatarkin

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Pro forma data for exploration of mineral raw material base of some territories Ural regions are given. Perspective trajectories of development of mineral raw complex of federal subjects Russia’s are characterized. On this basis are highlighted groups of region — saving, reducing, raising the level of raw specialization or diversifying own economy. Peculiarities of forecasting technological development in ore mining branches in the period of planned economy of the USSR are illustrated. Indexes of successfully working iron-ore open casts are given. Theraise of internal Russian demand on raw is grounded, for which satisfaction are needed:corresponding tax policy for innovative production, corporate innovative policy, creating fund of supporting ore mining, commercialization of scientific products and working out rules in the sphere of scientific and technical progress. Peculiarities of technological development of ore mining branches of industry are emphasized: necessity of modernization of enterprises and exploration of deposits in regions with not enough developed infrastructure and opportunity of using new system approach by forecasting. Thestages ofeffectiveexploration of deposits and the parameters of developing ore mining enterprises arefound out. Components of forecast of technological development are analyzed. World tendencies of developing ore mining industry and basic directions of forecast of developing ore mining branches are given. New effective technologies being used in the ore mining are analyzed in detail.

  5. Technology Alignment and Portfolio Prioritization (TAPP): Advanced Methods in Strategic Analysis, Technology Forecasting and Long Term Planning for Human Exploration and Operations, Advanced Exploration Systems and Advanced Concepts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funaro, Gregory V.; Alexander, Reginald A.

    2015-01-01

    The Advanced Concepts Office (ACO) at NASA, Marshall Space Flight Center is expanding its current technology assessment methodologies. ACO is developing a framework called TAPP that uses a variety of methods, such as association mining and rule learning from data mining, structure development using a Technological Innovation System (TIS), and social network modeling to measure structural relationships. The role of ACO is to 1) produce a broad spectrum of ideas and alternatives for a variety of NASA's missions, 2) determine mission architecture feasibility and appropriateness to NASA's strategic plans, and 3) define a project in enough detail to establish an initial baseline capable of meeting mission objectives ACO's role supports the decision­-making process associated with the maturation of concepts for traveling through, living in, and understanding space. ACO performs concept studies and technology assessments to determine the degree of alignment between mission objectives and new technologies. The first step in technology assessment is to identify the current technology maturity in terms of a technology readiness level (TRL). The second step is to determine the difficulty associated with advancing a technology from one state to the next state. NASA has used TRLs since 1970 and ACO formalized them in 1995. The DoD, ESA, Oil & Gas, and DoE have adopted TRLs as a means to assess technology maturity. However, "with the emergence of more complex systems and system of systems, it has been increasingly recognized that TRL assessments have limitations, especially when considering [the] integration of complex systems." When performing the second step in a technology assessment, NASA requires that an Advancement Degree of Difficulty (AD2) method be utilized. NASA has used and developed or used a variety of methods to perform this step: Expert Opinion or Delphi Approach, Value Engineering or Value Stream, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Technique for the Order of

  6. Desulphurization Technology in China Is Maturing Day by Day

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    In China, a number of power plants are installed with large imported FGD equipment. As from 1990s, China has built several demonstration projects with wet limestone-gypsum, simplified wet limestonegypsum, spray semi-drying, seawater, LIFAC and EBA processes along with vigorous introduction of foreign FGD equipment and technologies. As seen by FGD projects being under invitation for bid, large-sized units will generally be fitted with limestone-gypsum FGD equipment. Although theefficiency of FGD equipment is being raised rapidly, especially that of limestone/gypsum FGD equipment can reach 90%, such a technology has much room for improvement. In the coming ten years, China should exert itself to institute design and construction specification and standards, improve operation and maintenance techniques and develop new materials, etc.

  7. Information Technology Governance Maturity: Examining the Moderating Effect on the Relationship between Strategic Alignment Maturity and Information Technology Effectiveness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kouakou, Claude N.

    2013-01-01

    The positive contribution of information technology (IT) in an organization is undeniable. Most organizations take advantage of that contributive benefit by aligning their business strategy with their IT strategy. This alignment is known as IT-business strategic alignment. Strategic alignment involves making the best possible use of corporate IT…

  8. Information Technology Governance Maturity: Examining the Moderating Effect on the Relationship between Strategic Alignment Maturity and Information Technology Effectiveness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kouakou, Claude N.

    2013-01-01

    The positive contribution of information technology (IT) in an organization is undeniable. Most organizations take advantage of that contributive benefit by aligning their business strategy with their IT strategy. This alignment is known as IT-business strategic alignment. Strategic alignment involves making the best possible use of corporate IT…

  9. A Comparative Study of the Phenolic and Technological Maturities of Red Grapes Grown in Lebanon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajha, Hiba N.; El Darra, Nada; El Kantar, Sally; Hobaika, Zeina; Louka, Nicolas; Maroun, Richard G.

    2017-01-01

    Grape harvest date is determined according to the technological and phenolic maturities. These parameters were calculated for different red grape (Vitis vinifera L.) varieties (Cabernet Sauvignon, Merlot, Syrah, Cabernet Franc) over four years (2008, 2009, 2010, and 2011) (642 samples). Titratable acidity and sugar content of the grapes were used to determine the technological maturity, whereas Glories (1 and 2) and ITV (Institut Technique de la Vigne et du Vin) methods were used to monitor their phenolic maturity. The ITV method allows the monitoring of phenolic maturity by the quantification of total polyphenol index and anthocyanins, while the Glories method enables the quantitative evolution of extractable anthocyanins and tannins of the grapes. A correlation was shown between the harvest dates obtained by both ITV and Glories (R2 = 0.7 – 0.93). Phenolic maturity of grapes can, therefore, be optimized by the application of both ITV and Glories. Similarly, a correlation was observed between technological and phenolic harvest dates. The effect of climate on the phenolic content of grapes was also studied. The highest temperatures (up to 25 °C) accompanied by the lowest rainfall (null value), induced the maximal concentration of polyphenols in grapes. Thermal and water stresses were also shown to enhance the grapes’ polyphenolic production. PMID:28134785

  10. Forecasting the Development of Different Solar Cell Technologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arturo Morales-Acevedo

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Solar cells are made of several materials and device structures with the main goal of having maximum efficiency at low cost. Some types of solar cells have shown a rapid efficiency progress whereas others seem to remain constant as a consequence of different factors such as the technological and economic ones. Using information published by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL about the increase of solar cells record efficiency, we apply a simple mathematical model to estimate the evolution in the near future for the different cell technologies. Here, as an example, we use data for solar cells made with representative materials and structures of each of the three “PV generations.”

  11. Improving the Army’s Next Effort in Technology Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-01

    Cortisol Effects on Body Mass, Blood Pressure, and Cholesterol in the General Population,” Hypertension, 33 (1999), 1364–1368. 13 V. Technological...of HPA (hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal) axis stress response hormones, notably cortisol and b-endorphin.62 These authors suggest that high hardy...stressors. In short, hardy individuals are more likely to remain emotionally stable during stressful situations. In support of this interpretation is

  12. Socioeconomic Impact Assessment: Communications Industry. Phase III. Technology Forecast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1979-02-02

    follows: stagflation, balanced growth, rapid growth. That is, it requires less time to move from ideation to market introduction under a rapid growth...consider the relative relationship among the socio-economic scenarios. The assertions of import include: 1. The period between ideation and market ... introduction for a technology is influenced by the socio-economic scenario. It is likely that the time requirement, i.e. innovation lag, will be ordered as

  13. Survey of Long-Term Technology Forecasting Methodologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-11-01

    betting scores at horse races (Ref. 11). The RAND research was directed at improving the use of expert predictions in policy - making. Procedures were... policy formulation, but we have no way of knowing whether it did. Much of the thinking was heavily oriented toward then-current problems, such as the...asked to put themselves into a future time frame in which some technology is assumed to be commonplace. Then, the group is asked to “ backcast ” to

  14. Forecasting the Development of Different Solar Cell Technologies

    OpenAIRE

    Arturo Morales-Acevedo; Gaspar Casados-Cruz

    2013-01-01

    Solar cells are made of several materials and device structures with the main goal of having maximum efficiency at low cost. Some types of solar cells have shown a rapid efficiency progress whereas others seem to remain constant as a consequence of different factors such as the technological and economic ones. Using information published by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) about the increase of solar cells record efficiency, we apply a simple mathematical model to estimate the ...

  15. A review on technology maturity of small scale energy storage technologies★

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nguyen Thu-Trang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper reviews the current status of energy storage technologies which have the higher potential to be applied in small scale energy systems. Small scale energy systems can be categorized as ones that are able to supply energy in various forms for a building, or a small area, or a limited community, or an enterprise; typically, they are end-user systems. Energy storage technologies are classified based on their form of energy stored. A two-step evaluation is proposed for selecting suitable storage technologies for small scale energy systems, including identifying possible technical options, and addressing techno-economic aspects. Firstly, a review on energy storage technologies at small scale level is carried out. Secondly, an assessment of technology readiness level (TRL is conducted. The TRLs are ranked according to information gathered from literature review. Levels of market maturity of the technologies are addressed by taking into account their market development stages through reviewing published materials. The TRLs and the levels of market maturity are then combined into a technology maturity curve. Additionally, market driving factors are identified by using different stages in product life cycle. The results indicate that lead-acid, micro pumped hydro storage, NaS battery, NiCd battery, flywheel, NaNiCl battery, Li-ion battery, and sensible thermal storage are the most mature technologies for small scale energy systems. In the near future, hydrogen fuel cells, thermal storages using phase change materials and thermochemical materials are expected to become more popular in the energy storage market.

  16. Analysis of Technology and Hydrological Regime Changes Induced Errors of Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balint, G.; Rozsa, K.; Bartha, P.

    Real time hydrological forecasting results inevitable contain some errors. The source of the difference between calculated and observed values can be most diverse. In- put data of forecasting models are themselves not the true estimates of the ongoing processes U it can be followed by comparing operationally computed water levels with those checked and corrected on annual basis as they appear in hydrological year- books. Modelling errors are the most common ones and systematic or regular parts of those are often compensated by appropriate updating procedures. ARMA techniques are frequently used, but in most cases for major part of this error component can be compensated by n-step autoregressive procedure where n is a sufficiently low number. Basic statements are illustrated by the history of short term water level forecasting on the Hungarian section of the Danube. No strict calculation algorithm or defined tech- nique was used in the 1950s the forecast was the product of subjective judgement by an (usually) experienced forecaster. A simple linear regression expression was used in the 60s, early 70s often combined with results of an empirical flood routing tech- nique and/or during floods with results of graphical correlation technique used for flood crest forecasting. Most of the 70s and till mid-1980s the empirical flood routing technique developed by Szesztay remained in use, combined with flood crests fore- casting. The age of micro-computes changed the approaches in use. A flood routing model based on DLCM later combined with rainfall-runoff models (GAPI) took over as tool for daily forecasting. The graphical flood crests forecasting was replaced by a multivariate linear or polynomial regression technique. The change of techniques and more advanced technology was not followed by clear improvement represented by decreasing errors. This is mostly due to changes in hydrological regime for low flow periods often having the impact of the peak regime of hydro power

  17. NASA Environmental Control and Life Support Technology Development and Maturation for Exploration: 2015 to 2016 Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Walter F.; Gatens, Robyn L.; Anderson, Molly S.; Broyan, James L.; MaCatangay, Ariel V.; Shull, Sarah A.; Perry, Jay L.; Toomarian, Nikzad

    2016-01-01

    Over the last year, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has continued to refine the understanding and prioritization of technology gaps that must be closed in order to achieve Evolvable Mars Campaign objectives and near term objectives in the cislunar proving ground. These efforts are reflected in updates to the technical area roadmaps released by NASA in 2015 and have guided technology development and maturation tasks that have been sponsored by various programs. This paper provides an overview of the refined Environmental Control and Life Support (ECLS) strategic planning, as well as a synopsis of key technology and maturation project tasks that occurred in 2014 and early 2015 to support the strategic needs. Plans for the remainder of 2015 and subsequent years are also described.

  18. Use of computer technologies in physical education of women of the first mature age

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julia Tomilina

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: the improvement of process of physical education of women of the first mature age by means of Pilates with use of information technologies. Material & Methods: the experience of development and deployment of computer technologies in the process of physical education of women of mature age was systematized by means of the analysis of scientific and methodical and special literature and the best pedagogical and coach's practices, which is presented in mass media. The ways of application of computer programs were revealed, and the computer program ‘’Pilates’’ was developed by means of programming in the system Visual Basic. Results: the computer program ‘’Pilates’’, which consists of directory, settlement and recreational blocks, is offered for the purpose of improvement of the process of physical education of women of the first mature age by means of Pilates and increase in their motivation to classes by physical exercises. Conclusions: it is revealed that application of the computer programs has the positive effect in practice of physical education of women of the first mature age. The computer program ‘’Pilates’’ is submitted.

  19. A formulation of multidimensional growth models for the assessment and forecast of technology attributes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danner, Travis W.

    Developing technology systems requires all manner of investment---engineering talent, prototypes, test facilities, and more. Even for simple design problems the investment can be substantial; for complex technology systems, the development costs can be staggering. The profitability of a corporation in a technology-driven industry is crucially dependent on maximizing the effectiveness of research and development investment. Decision-makers charged with allocation of this investment are forced to choose between the further evolution of existing technologies and the pursuit of revolutionary technologies. At risk on the one hand is excessive investment in an evolutionary technology which has only limited availability for further improvement. On the other hand, the pursuit of a revolutionary technology may mean abandoning momentum and the potential for substantial evolutionary improvement resulting from the years of accumulated knowledge. The informed answer to this question, evolutionary or revolutionary, requires knowledge of the expected rate of improvement and the potential a technology offers for further improvement. This research is dedicated to formulating the assessment and forecasting tools necessary to acquire this knowledge. The same physical laws and principles that enable the development and improvement of specific technologies also limit the ultimate capability of those technologies. Researchers have long used this concept as the foundation for modeling technological advancement through extrapolation by analogy to biological growth models. These models are employed to depict technology development as it asymptotically approaches limits established by the fundamental principles on which the technological approach is based. This has proven an effective and accurate approach to modeling and forecasting simple single-attribute technologies. With increased system complexity and the introduction of multiple system objectives, however, the usefulness of this

  20. When a mature technology company pivots: A case study of Logitech

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anderson Darrell

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Life cycle theory has been shown to be an important explanation of the relationship between sales and stock prices. This study explores how the technology company Logitech attempted a transition from a mature life-cycle company in computer peripherals to a growth company in the music, tablet, and gaming industries. We show that stock price correlates with accounting performance differently across the company’s life cycle.

  1. Innovative activity of high-technology companies as assessment and forecasting object

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. E. Sklyarov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Innovation activities, as well as innovations, are closely related meanings, and like many others economical definitions, have a broad range of meanings. Main characteristics and attributes of innovation involves new or significantly improved product, that’s being used, or in other words, found its application, and innovative activities – activities focused on realization of innovations. In this article, innovations are mainly considered in terms of high-technology production, evidence from Russian space industry. There are 5 basic stages of lifecycle of innovative project in considered industry: initiation, development, realization, expansion, consumption. Practically, third or fourth, or even both of these stages, often missing because there is no need of them. R&D activities, or even further serial production, based on previous developments, is an innovation activity, because these activities are stages of innovative projects lifecycle itself. Then it seems legit, to draw a conclusion, that in terms of high-technology production, company’s primary activity equals innovative activity. Basic characteristics of innovative activity of high-technology companies as assessment and forecasting object involves high level of uncertainty at every stage of projects lifecycle, high dependency on funding level of this activity, and high level and erratic structure of risk. All the above mentioned, means that assessment and forecasting of innovative activity of high-technology companies, needs development of its own methodological tools for each industry.

  2. A patent survey case: how could technological forecasting help cosmetic chemists with product innovation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domicio Da Silva Souza, Ivan; Juliana Pinheiro, Bárbara; Passarini Takahashi, Vania

    2012-01-01

    Patents represent a free and open source of data for studying innovation and forecasting technological trends. Thus, we suggest that new discussions about the role of patent information are needed. To illustrate the relevance of this issue, we performed a survey of patents involving skin care products, which were granted by the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) between 2006 and 2010, to identify opportunities for innovation and technological trends. We quantified the use of technologies in 333 patents. We plotted a life cycle of technologies related to natural ingredients. We also determined the cross impact of the technologies identified. We observed technologies related to processes applied to cosmetics (2.2%), functional packaging and applicators (2.9%), excipients and active compounds (21.5%), and cosmetic preparations (73.5%). Further, 21.6% of the patents were related to the use of natural ingredients. Several opportunities for innovation were discussed throughout this paper, for example, the use of peptides as active compounds or intracellular carriers (only 3.9% of the technologies in cosmetic preparations). We also observed technological cross impacts that suggested a trend toward multifunctional cosmetics, among others. Patent surveys may help researchers with product innovation because they allow us to identify available and unexplored technologies and turn them into whole new concepts.

  3. Consideration of economic risks in a comparative analysis of nuclear technologies with different maturity levels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.A. Andrianov

    2017-06-01

    Evaluation of risk indicators requires calculation of characteristics for probabilistic distributions of economic performance indicators and systemic use of statistical approaches based on Monte Carlo methods. Demonstration analysis results for the risk indicator evaluation have been discussed as applied to different economic performance indicators based on the example of a comparative analysis for two hypothetical light water reactor technologies to be considered in the selection of the most attractive option. Use of economic risk indicators for the comparative evaluation of reactor technologies appears to be helpful to decision makers not familiar with the technical characteristics and performance measures of reactor technologies but informed about the economic risk concepts. Such methodology may be employed efficiently to interpret the ranking results in a multi-criteria comparative evaluation of less and more mature reactor technologies.

  4. Review of methods for forecasting the market penetration of new technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gilshannon, S.T.; Brown, D.R.

    1996-12-01

    In 1993 the DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EE) initiated a program called Quality Metrics. Quality Metrics was developed to measure the costs and benefits of technologies being developed by EE R&D programs. The impact of any new technology is directly related to its adoption by the market. The techniques employed to project market adoption are critical to measuring a new technology`s impact. Our purpose was to review current market penetration theories and models and develop a recommended approach for evaluating the market penetration of DOE technologies. The following commonly cited innovation diffusion theories were reviewed to identify analytical approaches relevant to new energy technologies: (1) the normal noncumulative adopter distribution method, (2) the Bass Model, (3) the Mansfield-Blackman Model, (4) the Fisher-Pry Model, (5) a meta-analysis of innovation diffusion studies. Of the theories reviewed, the Bass and Mansfield-Blackman models were found most applicable to forecasting the market penetration of electricity supply technologies. Their algorithms require input estimates which characterize the technology adoption behavior of the electricity supply industry. But, inadequate work has been done to quantify the technology adoption characteristics of this industry. The following energy technology market penetration models were also reviewed: (1) DOE`s Renewable Energy Penetration (REP) Model, (2) DOE`s Electricity Capacity Planning Submodule of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), (3) the Assessment of Energy Technologies (ASSET) model by Regional Economic Research, Inc., (4) the Market TREK model by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). The two DOE models were developed for electricity generation technologies whereas the Regional Economic Research and EPRI models were designed for demand- side energy technology markets. Therefore, the review and evaluation focused on the DOE models.

  5. The Need for Technology Maturity of Any Advanced Capability to Achieve Better Life Cycle Cost (LCC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, John W.; Levack, Daniel J. H.; Rhodes, Russel E.; Chen, Timothy T.

    2009-01-01

    Programs such as space transportation systems are developed and deployed only rarely, and they have long development schedules and large development and life cycle costs (LCC). They have not historically had their LCC predicted well and have only had an effort to control the DDT&E phase of the programs. One of the factors driving the predictability, and thus control, of the LCC of a program is the maturity of the technologies incorporated in the program. If the technologies incorporated are less mature (as measured by their Technology Readiness Level - TRL), then the LCC not only increases but the degree of increase is difficult to predict. Consequently, new programs avoid incorporating technologies unless they are quite mature, generally TRL greater than or equal to 7 (system prototype demonstrated in a space environment) to allow better predictability of the DDT&E phase costs unless there is no alternative. On the other hand, technology development programs rarely develop technologies beyond TRL 6 (system/subsystem model or prototype demonstrated in a relevant environment). Currently the lack of development funds beyond TRL 6 and the major funding required for full scale development leave little or no funding available to prototype TRL 6 concepts so that hardware would be in the ready mode for safe, reliable and cost effective incorporation. The net effect is that each new program either incorporates little new technology or has longer development schedules and costs, and higher LCC, than planned. This paper presents methods to ensure that advanced technologies are incorporated into future programs while providing a greater accuracy of predicting their LCC. One method is having a dedicated organization to develop X-series vehicles or separate prototypes carried on other vehicles. The question of whether such an organization should be independent of NASA and/or have an independent funding source is discussed. Other methods are also discussed. How to make the

  6. Production Costs of Alternative Transportation Fuels. Influence of Crude Oil Price and Technology Maturity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cazzola, Pierpaolo; Morrison, Geoff; Kaneko, Hiroyuki; Cuenot, Francois; Ghandi, Abbas; Fulton, Lewis

    2013-07-01

    This study examines the production costs of a range of transport fuels and energy carriers under varying crude oil price assumptions and technology market maturation levels. An engineering ''bottom-up'' approach is used to estimate the effect of the input cost of oil and of various technological assumptions on the finished price of these fuels. In total, the production costs of 20 fuels are examined for crude oil prices between USD 60 and USD 150 per barrel. Some fuel pathways can be competitive with oil as their production, transport and storage technology matures, and as oil price increases. Rising oil prices will offer new opportunities to switch to alternative fuels for transport, to diversify the energy mix of the transport sector, and to reduce the exposure of the whole system to price volatility and potential distuption of supply. In a time of uncertainty about the leading vehicle technology to decarbonize the transport sector, looking at the fuel cost brings key information to be considered to keep mobility affordable yet sustainable.

  7. Modelling phenolic and technological maturities of grapes by means of the multivariate relation between organoleptic and physicochemical properties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meléndez, E; Ortiz, M C; Sarabia, L A; Íñiguez, M; Puras, P

    2013-01-25

    The ripeness of grapes at the harvest time is one of the most important parameters for obtaining high quality red wines. Traditionally the decision of harvesting is to be taken only after analysing sugar concentration, titratable acidity and pH of the grape juice (technological maturity). However, these parameters only provide information about the pulp ripeness and overlook the real degree of skins and seeds maturities (phenolic maturity). Both maturities, technological and phenolic, are not simultaneously reached, on the contrary they tend to separate depending on several factors: grape variety, cultivar, adverse weather conditions, soil, water availability and cultural practices. Besides, this divergence is increasing as a consequence of the climate change (larger quantities of CO(2), less rain, and higher temperatures). 247 samples collected in vineyards representative of the qualified designation of origin Rioja from 2007 to 2011 have been analysed. Samples contain the four grape varieties usual in the elaboration of Rioja wines ('tempranillo', 'garnacha', 'mazuelo' and 'graciano'). The present study is the first systematic investigation on the maturity of grapes that includes the organoleptic evaluation of the degree of grapes maturity (sugars/acidity maturity, aromatic maturity of the pulp, aromatic maturity of the skins and tannins maturity) together with the values of the physicochemical parameters (probable alcohol degree, total acidity, pH, malic acid, K, total index polyphenolics, anthocyans, absorbances at 420, 520 and 620 nm, colour index and tartaric acid) determined over the same samples. A varimax rotation of the latent variables of a PLS model between the physicochemical variables and the mean of four sensory variables allows identifying both maturities. Besides, the position of the samples in the first plane defines the effect that the different factors exert on both phenolic and technological maturities. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All

  8. Cobalt: Development and Maturation of GN&C Technologies for Precision Landing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carson, John M.; Restrepo, Carolina; Seubert, Carl; Amzajerdian, Farzin

    2016-01-01

    The CoOperative Blending of Autonomous Landing Technologies (COBALT) instrument is a terrestrial test platform for development and maturation of guidance, navigation and control (GN&C) technologies for precision landing. The project is developing a third-generation Langley Research Center (LaRC) navigation doppler lidar (NDL) for ultra-precise velocity and range measurements, which will be integrated and tested with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) lander vision system (LVS) for terrain relative navigation (TRN) position estimates. These technologies together provide precise navigation knowledge that is critical for a controlled and precise touchdown. The COBALT hardware will be integrated in 2017 into the GN&C subsystem of the Xodiac rocket-propulsive vertical test bed (VTB) developed by Masten Space Systems, and two terrestrial flight campaigns will be conducted: one open-loop (i.e., passive) and one closed-loop (i.e., active).

  9. Translational science by public biotechnology companies in the IPO "class of 2000": the impact of technological maturity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNamee, Laura; Ledley, Fred

    2013-01-01

    The biotechnology industry plays a central role in the translation of nascent biomedical science into both products that offer material health benefits and creating capital growth. This study examines the relationship between the maturity of technologies in a characteristic life cycle and value creation by biotechnology companies. We examined the core technology, product development pipelines, and capitalization for a cohort of biotechnology companies that completed an IPO in 2000. Each of these companies was well financed and had core technologies on the leading edge of biological science. We found that companies with the least mature technologies had significantly higher valuations at IPO, but failed to develop products based on these technologies over the ensuing decade, and created less capital growth than companies with more mature technologies at IPO. The observation that this cohort of recently public biotechnology companies was not effective in creating value from nascent science suggests the need for new, evidence-based business strategies for translational science.

  10. Translational science by public biotechnology companies in the IPO "class of 2000": the impact of technological maturity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura McNamee

    Full Text Available The biotechnology industry plays a central role in the translation of nascent biomedical science into both products that offer material health benefits and creating capital growth. This study examines the relationship between the maturity of technologies in a characteristic life cycle and value creation by biotechnology companies. We examined the core technology, product development pipelines, and capitalization for a cohort of biotechnology companies that completed an IPO in 2000. Each of these companies was well financed and had core technologies on the leading edge of biological science. We found that companies with the least mature technologies had significantly higher valuations at IPO, but failed to develop products based on these technologies over the ensuing decade, and created less capital growth than companies with more mature technologies at IPO. The observation that this cohort of recently public biotechnology companies was not effective in creating value from nascent science suggests the need for new, evidence-based business strategies for translational science.

  11. Technology of making healthy and correction of build of men of the first mature age

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stroganov S.V.

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Directions of search of ways of making healthy of population of mature age are considered. In an experiment 30 men took part 21-35 years. The men of experimental group conducted training on the basis of 4th of the monthly program of correction and making healthy. There was statistically meaningful divergence in the capacity of men of experimental group by comparison to the men of control group. Also in the subjective estimation of own build, feel for a day, at the end of workweek and after training. Employment on the developed technology induced the men of experimental group a greater measure to give up harmful habits.

  12. Innovation Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-11-01

    relating to “ injectors ”) to develop a map of the related technologies [33.] Another approach is to develop a “tree” showing a system branching into its...additional terms such as “trend,” “forecast,” “ delphi ,” “assessment,” and so forth may call up other forecasts and assessments relating to the topic...present and future engine technologies. A preliminary search (Step 1, Table 5) located prior forecasts, in particular, a Delphi study [36]. The Delphi

  13. Assessing the maturity and re-usability of NASA's Advanced Information System Technology (AIST) Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Little, M. M.; Hines, K.

    2016-12-01

    Considerable funding has been invested in Earth science information technology (IT) projects by NASA over the past 15 years. While many of these projects succeeded at completing their objectives, rapid improvements in technology and growth in available data could further enhance the capabilities available to the Earth science community. Independent evaluation of these projects has become more and more important. Not only do they qualify the maturity of the work, but they give potential adopters the chance to kick the tires. One approach that has been used is to task Federally Funded Research and Development Corporations (FFRDC) with reviews and paper studies. Another approach involves field testing by third parties. Over the past three years, the AIST Program has tried both. This paper will describe both approaches and lessons learned from the experiences. The audience will be asked for their suggestions as to how to qualify and value these results.

  14. An extension of the technology acceptance model for business intelligence systems: project management maturity perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirjana Pejić Bach

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Business intelligence systems (BISs refer to wide range of technologies and applications useful for retrieving and analyzing the large amount of information with the goal to generate knowledge useful for making effective business decision. In order to investigate adoption of BISs in companies, we propose a model based on the technology acceptance model (TAM that is expanded by variables representing the concept of a project management maturity (PMM. The survey on the sample of USA companies has been conducted with the chief information officer (CIO as the main informant. Structural equations model has been developed in order to test the research model. Results indicate that TAM expanded with the notion of PMM is useful in increasing understanding of BISs adoption in companies.

  15. STAR 21, Technology Forecast Assessments. Strategic Technologies for the Army of the Twenty-First Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-01-01

    technology, power conditioning includes prime power from homopolar generators, compulsators , and alternators combined with capacitors, batteries, and pulse...positions where they cease to make design contributions. Working relationships with suppliers are changing from strictly buyer /seller to partnerships

  16. Forecasting the Market for New Communication Technology: The Home Video Player Experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klopfenstein, Bruce C.

    This paper describes a critical study of the available forecasts and forecasting studies for the home video player market over a 15-year period which was undertaken to discover why so many forecasts were wrong about consumer adoption of home videocassette players and videodisk players, the reasons for these errors, and ways in which this knowledge…

  17. The impact of earth resources exploration from space. [technology assessment/LANDSAT satellites -technological forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nordberg, W.

    1975-01-01

    The use of Earth Resources Technology Satellites in solving global problems is examined. Topics discussed are: (1) management of food, water, and fiber resources; (2) exploration and management of energy and mineral resources; (3) protection of the environment; (4) protection of life and property; and (5) improvements in shipping and navigation.

  18. The application of mature dry storage technology and remote handling robotics to nuclear plant extension, clean-up and decommissioning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blackwell, W.C. [GEC ALSTHOM Engineering Systems Ltd., Leicester (United Kingdom)

    1997-08-01

    This paper reviews a mature dry storage technology developed by GEC ALSTHOM Engineering Systems Limited (GAES) which offers a passive, economical and licensable method of providing irradiated fuel storage capacity at operational nuclear power stations. The evolution of the modular vault dry store (MVDS) technology has taken place over 25 years of operational experience, culminating in a product which meets all of the concerns of licensing authorities regarding safety and fuel integrity. The application of remote handling robotics to nuclear fuel and active component handling as a routine process rather than as an intervention technique is also reviewed. The growth of the application of this technology is governed by several factors which include: statutory requirements, safety assurance, risk reduction and economic pressures. The availability of a mature MVDS technology with an evolving process-capable robotics technology opens up opportunities for exploring proven UK products. (Author).

  19. Preliminary Technology Maturation Plan for Immobilization of High-Level Waste in Glass Ceramics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vienna, John D.; Crum, Jarrod V.; Sevigny, Gary J.; Smith, G L.

    2012-09-30

    A technology maturation plan (TMP) was developed for immobilization of high-level waste (HLW) raffinate in a glass ceramics waste form using a cold-crucible induction melter (CCIM). The TMP was prepared by the following process: 1) define the reference process and boundaries of the technology being matured, 2) evaluate the technology elements and identify the critical technology elements (CTE), 3) identify the technology readiness level (TRL) of each of the CTE’s using the DOE G 413.3-4, 4) describe the development and demonstration activities required to advance the TRLs to 4 and 6 in order, and 5) prepare a preliminary plan to conduct the development and demonstration. Results of the technology readiness assessment identified five CTE’s and found relatively low TRL’s for each of them: • Mixing, sampling, and analysis of waste slurry and melter feed: TRL-1 • Feeding, melting, and pouring: TRL-1 • Glass ceramic formulation: TRL-1 • Canister cooling and crystallization: TRL-1 • Canister decontamination: TRL-4 Although the TRL’s are low for most of these CTE’s (TRL-1), the effort required to advance them to higher values. The activities required to advance the TRL’s are listed below: • Complete this TMP • Perform a preliminary engineering study • Characterize, estimate, and simulate waste to be treated • Laboratory scale glass ceramic testing • Melter and off-gas testing with simulants • Test the mixing, sampling, and analyses • Canister testing • Decontamination system testing • Issue a requirements document • Issue a risk management document • Complete preliminary design • Integrated pilot testing • Issue a waste compliance plan A preliminary schedule and budget were developed to complete these activities as summarized in the following table (assuming 2012 dollars). TRL Budget Year MSA FMP GCF CCC CD Overall $M 2012 1 1 1 1 4 1 0.3 2013 2 2 1 1 4 1 1.3 2014 2 3 1 1 4 1 1.8 2015 2 3 2 2 4 2 2.6 2016 2 3 2 2 4 2 4

  20. Current and Potential Use of Technology Forecasting Tools in the Federal Government

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-01

    seeks to “develop and test methods for generating accurate forecasts for significant [S&T] milestones, by combining the judgements of many experts.”2 To...a primarily respondent-driven sampling method was used to identify and facilitate contact with appropriate individuals. An initial list of...Forecasting ............................................15 1. Agencies that Use Automated Methods ......................................................15 2

  1. In Situ Mercury Stabilization (ISMS) Treatment: Technology Maturation Project Phase I Status Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kalb,P.D.; Milian, L.

    2008-03-01

    technology. If further developed it has the potential for large-scale in-situ treatment of contaminated soils that could substantially reduce the prohibitive cost of thermal desorption and/or excavation and disposal. Licensing and spin-off technology development opportunities would then be viable. Depending on performance and regulatory acceptance, the treated mercury could either be excavated for disposal elsewhere or left in place as a stable alternative. Excavated spent treatment rods could be processed by the SPSS process to reduce the potential for dispersion and lower leachability even further. The Phase I objectives of the In Situ Mercury Stabilization Treatment Process Technology Maturation Project were to: (1) replicate the original bench-scale results that formed the basis for BNL's patent application, i.e., mercury contamination in soil will migrate to and react with 'rods' containing sulfur and/or sulfur compounds, (2) provide enough information to evaluate a decision to conduct further development, and (3) establish some of the critical parameters that require further technology maturation during Phase II. The information contained in this report summarizes the work conducted in Phase I to meet these objectives.

  2. 光伏功率预测技术%An Overview of Photovoltaic Energy System Output Forecasting Technology

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    龚莺飞; 鲁宗相; 乔颖; 王强

    2016-01-01

    Forecast of photovoltaic energy system output is a crucial technology to improve the performance of photovoltaic energy stations,and plays a fundamental role in the secure and stable operation of power grid with high penetration of photovoltaic generation.Since photovoltaic energy system forecasting is still at very early stage,it is critical to understand its technical roadmap and key problems.This paper gives a comprehensive review of the basic technical principles and key problems in the photovoltaic energy forecasting.Firstly,the basic principle and methods of photovoltaic energy forecasting are introduced.Then the key technical points of ultra-short term and short term forecasting are summarized,specially focusing on the forecasting accuracy.Finally,the key issues of photovoltaic energy forecasting are summarized from the prospective of Chinese market.%光伏功率预测是提高光伏电站控制、调度性能,保障高比率光伏发电接入的电网安全稳定运行的基础性关键技术。国内光伏功率预测技术研究和工程应用尚处于起步阶段,理清其技术脉络和关键问题尤其迫切。文中对光伏功率预测基本技术原理和关键问题进行了全面综述,首先介绍其基本原理和预测模式,然后总结了超短期和短期预测的主要技术要点,并着重对提升预测精度的相关研究进行评述,最后结合中国光伏功率预测发展现状,提出了值得研究和关注的光伏功率预测关键问题。

  3. 基于专利分析的技术预测概念模型%Conceptual Model of Technology Forecast Based on Patent Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张韵君; 柳飞红

    2014-01-01

    国内外研究者对技术预测给予了不同的阐释。专利分析作为技术预测的一种有效工具,可以为技术创新提供有力的决策支持。针对特定技术领域的预测,是基于“专利三性”隐含的技术发展方向、技术发展水平和技术发展潜力的特征所作出的判断。因此,可以建立一个基于专利分析的技术预测概念模型。概念模型在纵向层次上分为总预测层、预测综合层、预测分析层和预测信息层。在此基础上,选择和运用相应的专利分析指标和方法,形成一个技术预测的专利分析方法框架,以指导实际的技术预测活动。技术预测的效用可以用技术的发展方向、发展水平和发展潜力这三个变量予以描述。但专利分析也存在局限性,需要与其它方法配合使用。%There are different definitions for technology forecast domestically and abroad. Being an effective tool for technology forecast, patent analysis is very helpful to technological innovation decision-making. Because the forecast in specific technology fields is based on features of technology development direction, level and potential implicated in the “three natures of patent”, so a conceptual model of technology forecast can be built on the basis of patent analysis. The proposed model consists four layers of overall forecast, forecast con-solidated, predictive analysis and forecast information from a longitudinal level. Based on this, corresponding indicators and methods of patent analysis can be chosen and used to build a patent analysis frame for technology forecast to guide the actual activities of technology forecast. The effectiveness of technology forecast can be described with the three variables of development direction, level and potential of technology. And it is suggested that other methods be used together with patent analysis because of its limitations.

  4. North Florida Dairy Farmer Perceptions Toward the Use of Seasonal Climate Forecast Technology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cabrera, V.E.; Breuer, N.E. [Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, Gainesville, 256 Frazier Rogers Hall, PO Box 110570, FL 32611, Florida (United States); Hildebrand, P.E. [Food and Resource Economic Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, Gainesville, 1172 McCarty Hall, PO Box 110240, 32611-0240, Florida (United States)

    2006-10-15

    Evidence of increasing nitrogen levels in the Suwannee River Basin in North Florida demands a collaborative effort to find creative ways to reduce N pollution. This study explores the perspectives, perceptions, and attitudes of dairy farmers regarding adoption of climate forecasts as a potential way to mitigate the problem. These farmers are heavily scrutinized because of their nitrogen emissions. By contrasting scientists' pre-conceived attitudes about the usefulness of ENSO-based (El Nino/Southern Oscillation) forecasts with dairy farmers' perceptions, gathered in a participatory and consensual manner, valuable lessons were learned. A deeper understanding of the day to day realities of dairy farming systems help researchers pinpoint management adaptations that are not only useful, but feasible, in light of improved seasonal climate forecasts. Furthermore, dairy farmers' perceptions regarding the use of seasonal climate information to mitigate the nitrate problem are critical for designing future dairy systems.

  5. Structural equation modelling based data fusion for technology forecasting: A generic framework

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Staphorst, L

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available makers. Technology indicators are those sources of technology related data that allow for the direct characterisation and evaluation of technologies over their whole life cycle. Future-oriented Technology Analysis (FTA), which is a forward...

  6. CAT5:A Tool for Measuring the Maturity Level of Information Technology Governance Using COBIT 5 Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Souhaïl El ghazi El Houssaïni

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Companies have more and more trends to automate their operational and organizational activities, therefore the investment of information technology (IT continues to increase every year. However, good governance that can ensure the alignment of IT and business strategy and realized benefits from IT investments has not always followed this increase. Measurement of IT governance is then required as a basis for the continuous improvement of the IT services. This study is aimed at producing a tool CAT5 to measure the maturity level of IT governance, thus facilitating the process of improvement of IT services. CAT5 is based on COBIT 5 framework and the design used is Unified Modeling Language. Through stages of information system development, this research results in an application for measuring the maturity level of IT governance that can be used in assessing existing IT governance.

  7. Enhancing nutrient recovery and compost maturity of coconut husk by vermicomposting technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swarnam, T P; Velmurugan, A; Pandey, Sanjay Kumar; Dam Roy, S

    2016-05-01

    Vermicompost was prepared by five different treatments from relatively resistant coconut husk mixed with either pig slurry or poultry manure. The recovery of vermicompost varied from 35% to 43% and it resulted in significant increase in pH, microbial biomass carbon, macro and micro nutrients concentration. Among the treatments highest relative N (1.6) and K (1.3) recovery were observed for 20% feedstock substitution by pig slurry while poultry manure substitution recorded highest P recovery (2.4). Compost maturity parameters significantly differed and well correlated. The characteristics of different treatments established the maturity indices as C/N 15-20; Cw1.5 and HI>15.0. The manurial value of the coconut husk compost was improved by feedstock substitution with pig slurry (80:20). The results revealed the technical feasibility of converting coconut husk into valuable compost by feedstock substitution with pig slurry.

  8. Adaptive Opportunistic Cooperative Control Mechanism Based on Combination Forecasting and Multilevel Sensing Technology of Sensors for Mobile Internet of Things

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yong Jin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In mobile Internet of Things, there are many challenges, including sensing technology of sensors, how and when to join cooperative transmission, and how to select the cooperative sensors. To address these problems, we studied the combination forecasting based on the multilevel sensing technology of sensors, building upon which we proposed the adaptive opportunistic cooperative control mechanism based on the threshold values such as activity probability, distance, transmitting power, and number of relay sensors, in consideration of signal to noise ratio and outage probability. More importantly, the relay sensors would do self-test real time in order to judge whether to join the cooperative transmission, for maintaining the optimal cooperative transmission state with high performance. The mathematical analyses results show that the proposed adaptive opportunistic cooperative control approach could perform better in terms of throughput ratio, packet error rate and delay, and energy efficiency, compared with the direct transmission and opportunistic cooperative approaches.

  9. Key strategies for predictive exploration in mature environment: model innovation, exploration technology optimization and information integration

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Liang-ming; PENG Sheng-lin

    2005-01-01

    Prediction has become more and more difficult in mineral exploration, especially in the mature exploration environment such as Tongling copper district. For enhancing predictive discovery of hidden ore deposits in such mature environment, the key strategies which should be adopted include the innovation of the exploration models, application of the advanced exploration techniques and integration of multiple sets of information. The innovation of the exploration models should incorporate the new metallogenic concepts that are based on the geodynamic anatomization. The advanced techniques applied in the mature exploration environment should aim at the speciality and complexity of the geological setting and working environments. The information synthesis is to integrate multiple sets of data for giving a more credible and visual prospectivity map by using the geographic imformation system(GIS) and several mathematical methods, such as weight of evidence and fuzzy logic, which can extract useful information from every set of data as much as possible. Guided by these strategies, a predictive exploration in Fenghuangshan ore field of Tongling copper district was implemented, and a hidden ore deposit was discovered.

  10. The value of smart artificial lift technology in mature field operations demonstrated in the Zistersdorf oilfield in Austria

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muessig, S.; Oberndorfer, M.; Rice, D. [Rohoelaufsuchungs-AG, Wien (Austria); Soliman, K. [Montanuniversitaet Leoben (Austria)

    2013-08-01

    Currently, approximately 40% of world oil production comes from mature fields and the tendency is that this will increase with time. A significant portion of operational expenditures in mature oil fields is related to lifting costs including the cost of maintenance of the artificial lift equipment. In many cases additional, unnecessary, costs are incurred due to inadequate control of corrosion and sand production leading to premature failures of the equipment and thus to additional workover operations. In mature fields this can result in a significant loss of reserves when the production has to be abandoned prematurely because workover operations become uneconomic. In order to combat such losses of reserves RAG and its partners have developed fit-for-purpose technologies such as: continuous control of the liquid level in the annulus (i.e. bottom hole flowing pressure), innovative advanced sand control and longer lasting artificial lift equipment. On the basis of the 75 years old Zistersdorf oilfields the value of these developments in artificial lift technology is demonstrated. The Zistersdorf oilfields produce primarily from the compacted and fairly permeable 'Sarmat' sandstone formation which has many layers whereby the higher layers are poorly consolidated. The fields are currently producing from 33 producing wells some 6 900 m{sup 3} (Vn)/d gas and 48 t/d of oil at an average water cut of 97.1%. It will be shown that the implementation of the technologies described in combination with the in-house knowledge and the dedication of the field staff has extended considerably the mean time between failures of the equipment, reduced markedly the average yearly decline rate and thus extended the economic life expectancy of the fields and increased the ultimate recovery significantly.

  11. Using Enabling Technologies to Facilitate the Comparison of Satellite Observations with the Model Forecasts for Hurricane Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, P.; Knosp, B.; Hristova-Veleva, S. M.; Niamsuwan, N.; Johnson, M. P.; Shen, T. P. J.; Tanelli, S.; Turk, J.; Vu, Q. A.

    2014-12-01

    Due to their complexity and volume, the satellite data are underutilized in today's hurricane research and operations. To better utilize these data, we developed the JPL Tropical Cyclone Information System (TCIS) - an Interactive Data Portal providing fusion between Near-Real-Time satellite observations and model forecasts to facilitate model evaluation and improvement. We have collected satellite observations and model forecasts in the Atlantic Basin and the East Pacific for the hurricane seasons since 2010 and supported the NASA Airborne Campaigns for Hurricane Study such as the Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) in 2010 and the Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) from 2012 to 2014. To enable the direct inter-comparisons of the satellite observations and the model forecasts, the TCIS was integrated with the NASA Earth Observing System Simulator Suite (NEOS3) to produce synthetic observations (e.g. simulated passive microwave brightness temperatures) from a number of operational hurricane forecast models (HWRF and GFS). An automated process was developed to trigger NEOS3 simulations via web services given the location and time of satellite observations, monitor the progress of the NEOS3 simulations, display the synthetic observation and ingest them into the TCIS database when they are done. In addition, three analysis tools, the joint PDF analysis of the brightness temperatures, ARCHER for finding the storm-center and the storm organization and the Wave Number Analysis tool for storm asymmetry and morphology analysis were integrated into TCIS to provide statistical and structural analysis on both observed and synthetic data. Interactive tools were built in the TCIS visualization system to allow the spatial and temporal selections of the datasets, the invocation of the tools with user specified parameters, and the display and the delivery of the results. In this presentation, we will describe the key enabling technologies behind the design of

  12. Measuring Maturity of Use for Electronic Medical Records (EMRs) in British Columbia: The Physician Information Technology Office (PITO).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rimmer, Carol; Hagens, Simon; Baldwin, Anne; Anderson, Carol J

    2014-01-01

    This article examines British Columbia (BC)'s Physician Information Technology Office's efforts to measure and improve the use of electronic medical records (EMRs) by select practices in BC with an assessment of their progress using a maturity model, and targeted support. The follow-up assessments showed substantial increases in the physicians' scores resulting from action plans that comprised a series of tailored support activities. Specifically, there was an increase from 21% to 83% of physicians who could demonstrate that they used their EMRs as the principal method of record-keeping.

  13. Factors affecting the educational achievement of mature Māori information technology students: A case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Blain Harre Rakena

    Full Text Available This paper reports on the results of an investigation into the experiences of academically successful adult Māori students undertaking the Bachelor of Information Technology (BIT programme at the Waikato Institute of Technology (Wintec. This research looked at the participants\\' motivation for attending Wintec, the barriers (such as financial, social and family hardships they encountered as they made the transition back to full time study, and their experiences at Wintec. The paper considers the reasons why the participants have achieved well, identifies the support systems they called on, and explores the challenges that they experienced while studying in a tertiary learning environment. Its significance lies in the focus on factors that affect Māori academic success, specifically in information technology, so that teaching approaches and support systems, particularly in the institute of technology and polytechnic (ITP sector, can enhance the success of Māori in the field of IT.

  14. Heatshield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology (HEEET) Development and Maturation Status for NF Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellerby, D.; Blosser, M.; Boghozian, T.; Chavez-Garcia, J.; Chinnapongse, R.; Fowler, M.; Gage, P.; Gasch, M.; Gonzales, G.; Hamm, K.; Kazemba, C.; Ma, J.; Mahzari, M.; Milos, F.; Nishioka, O.; Peterson, K.; Poteet, C.; Prabhu, D.; Splinter, S.; Stackpoole, M.; Venkatapathy, E.; Young, Z.

    2016-01-01

    This poster provides an overview of the requirements, design, development and testing of the 3D Woven TPS being developed under NASA's Heatshield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology (HEEET) project. Under this current program, NASA is working to develop a Thermal Protection System (TPS) capable of surviving entry into Saturn. A primary goal of the project is to build and test an Engineering Test Unit (ETU) to establish a Technical Readiness Level (TRL) of 6 for this technology by 2017.

  15. Considerations in forecasting the demand for carbon sequestration and biotic storage technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trexler, M.C. [Trexler and Associates, Inc., Portland, OR (United States)

    1997-12-31

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has identified forestry and other land-use based mitigation measures as possible sources and sinks of greenhouse gases. An overview of sequestration and biotic storage is presented, and the potential impacts of the use of carbon sequestration as a mitigation technology are briefly noted. Carbon sequestration is also compare to other mitigation technologies. Biotic mitigation technologies are concluded to be a legitimate and potentially important part of greenhouse gas mitigation due to their relatively low costs, ancillary benefits, and climate impact. However, not all biotic mitigation techniques perfectly match the idealized definition of a mitigation measure, and policies are becoming increasingly biased against biotic technologies.

  16. Subsidizing the adoption of energy-saving technologies; Analyzing the impact of uncertainty, learning and maturation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    H.L.F. de Groot (Henri); D.P. van Soest (Daan); P. Mulder (Peter)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractAs part of the Kyoto Protocol, many countries have committed themselves to substantially reduce the emission of greenhouse gases within a politically imposed time constraint. Investment subsidies can be an important instrument to stimulate the adoption of energy-saving technologies to ac

  17. Development of technology for coal thermal power generation. Present state and future forecast

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoshimura, Uichiro

    1987-01-01

    Summary of the 1987 coal technology development projects supported by the Agency of Natural Resources and Energy, and the related data such as positioning of coal thermal power plants, application technoloy system, etc. are presented. The coal power generation technology system projects scheduled for 1980 - 1990 were introduced. For the environmental protection, air polution constitutes a big problem, and technologies of desulfurization, denitration, etc. have been developed. In the field of application technology, liquefaction of coal, utilization of low-grade coals, coal gasification, application to combined cycle power generation, etc. can be quoted. The agency is supporting development of various application technologies as the 1987 projects, among them are: Development of entrained bed coal gasification power plant, Verification experiments of technologies for dry desulfurization for coal thermal power plant, Verification tests for operational improvement of coal thermal power plant, Study on the possibility of introducing large scale fluidized bed boiler to coal thermal power generation, Investigation of new power generation systems, Development of high performance coal thermal power technology, and Development of optimum control system for large scale fluidized bed boiler. (2 tabs, 4 photos)

  18. A Novel Method for Technology Forecasting and Developing R&D Strategy of Building Integrated Photovoltaic Technology Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Jing Chiu

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Because of global warming, renewable energy technologies have become more essential currently, with solar energy technology advancing worldwide. Therefore, interdisciplinary integration is an important trend, and building-integrated photovoltaic (BIPV is an emerging technology involving the photovoltaic and building fields. The purpose of this study is to understand the technology evolution of BIPV and to determine the R&D planning direction. This paper proposes a hybrid approach to explore the life cycle of BIPV technology and develop the R&D strategy of related industries. The proposed approach comprises the following submodules. First, patent analysis is employed to transform patent documents into structured data. Second, the logistic growth model is used to explore the life cycle of BIPV technology. Third, a patent matrix map analysis is used to develop the R&D strategy of the BIPV industry. Through the analysis by the logistic model, the BIPV technology is transformed from the emerging stage to the growth stage of a long-term life cycle. The other important result is created by the three-dimensional matrix for R&D strategies in this paper.

  19. Rehabilitation of Mature Gas Fields in Romania: Success Through Integration of Management Processes and New Technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louboutin Michel

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available Nature oil and gas fields are difficult to rehabilitate effectively because of the economics of declining production. Many fields are abandoned prematurely when their life could be prolonged significantly through application of new technology. Romgaz (a national exploration and production company and Schlumberger (an integrated oilfield services company developed a new business model to overcome these obstacles. The key to success of this model, which is being applied to gas fields in the Transylvanian basin of Romania, is the shared risk and shared reward for the two companies. Integrated management processes addressing the complete system from reservoir to wellbore to surface/transmission facilities and application of new technology (logging, perforation, etc. have resulted in multifold increases in production.

  20. Subsidizing the Adoption of Energy-Saving Technologies: Analyzing the Impact of Uncertainty, Learning and Maturation

    OpenAIRE

    Groot, Henri de; van Soest, Daan; Mulder, Peter

    2004-01-01

    textabstractAs part of the Kyoto Protocol, many countries have committed themselves to substantially reduce the emission of greenhouse gases within a politically imposed time constraint. Investment subsidies can be an important instrument to stimulate the adoption of energy-saving technologies to achieve emission reduction targets. This paper addresses the impact of adoption subsidies on the amount of energy savings, taking into account both the endogenous and uncertain nature of technologica...

  1. Forecasting Innovation Pathways (FIP) for new and emerging science and technologies

    OpenAIRE

    Robinson, Douglas; Huang, Lu; Guo, Yan; Porter, Alan L

    2013-01-01

    International audience; "New" and "Emerging Science" and "Technologies" ("NESTs") have tremendous innovation potential. However this must be weighed against enormous uncertainties caused by many unknowns. The authors of this paper offer a framework to analyze NESTs to help ascertain likely innovation pathways.We have devised a 10-step framework based on extensive Future-oriented Technology Analyses ("FTA") experience, enriched by in-depth case analyses. In the paper, we describe our analytica...

  2. Forecasting Innovation Pathways (FIP) for new and emerging science and technologies

    OpenAIRE

    Robinson, Douglas,; Huang, Lu; Guo, Yan; Porter, Alan L.

    2013-01-01

    International audience; "New" and "Emerging Science" and "Technologies" ("NESTs") have tremendous innovation potential. However this must be weighed against enormous uncertainties caused by many unknowns. The authors of this paper offer a framework to analyze NESTs to help ascertain likely innovation pathways.We have devised a 10-step framework based on extensive Future-oriented Technology Analyses ("FTA") experience, enriched by in-depth case analyses. In the paper, we describe our analytica...

  3. 准确速判‘巴西蕉’果实成熟度方法研究%Study on a Quick and Accurate Method to Forecast Maturity of Brazilian Cavendish Banana

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王南南; 樊小林; 刘延涛; 刘庆虎

    2011-01-01

    Under two different kinds of nutrient management systems, a field experiment by taking tissue-cultured plant of Brazilian Cavendish banana (Musa AAA Giant Cavendish 'Brazil') as seedling was conducted to establish a fast and accurately quantitative method to forecast the fruit maturity by determination and comparison of finger length, girth and fresh weight as well as the ratio of peel to pulp of every hand per fruit bunch, and by observation the percentage of inflorescence emergence and harvested plants of every treatment at weekly intervals. The results showed that the finger length of banana increased progressively with time, and the same were true for the finger girth, weight and ratio of pulp to peel in fresh weight. The finger length and weight appeared to be variable among hands, but the finger girth stable, which all were significantly affected by nutrient management system and could not be used to forecast maturity of Brazilian Cavendish banana. The date of harvest was considerably influenced by the nutrient management system as well. However, there was no significant difference of the ratio of pulp to peel at harvest either among the 1" to 3rd hands or among the 4th to 6th hands under both nutrient management systems. Therefore, the ratio value of pulp to peel could be used as a quantitative index to judge the fruit maturity of Brazilian Cavendish banana. When the average ratio value reached either 1.65 for the 1st to 3rd hands or 1.54 for the 4th to 6th hands, the 75% fruit maturity was obtained.%以‘巴西蕉’组培苗为试材,于大田条件下,分别在反梳期、膨大前期、膨大后期、采收期测定2种供肥模式下果穗各梳的农艺性状(指长、指围、指重)和鲜果肉皮比,且自抽蕾后定期观测抽蕾率和收获率,试图探寻一种判断‘巴西蕉’果实成熟度之简便易行的定量方法.结果表明:随着果实生长,‘巴西蕉’指长、指围、指重和鲜果肉皮比不断增大;果梳之间

  4. TwinFocus, a concentrated photovoltaic module based on mature technologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonini Piergiorgio

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Among solar power generation, concentrated photovoltaics (CPV based on multijunction (MJ solar cells, is one of the most promising technology for hot climates. The fact that multijunction solar cells based on direct band gap semiconductors demonstrate lower dependence on temperature than silicon solar cells boosted their use in concentrated photovoltaics modules. Departing from the mainstream design of Fresnel lenses, the CPV module based on TwinFocus design with off-axis quasi parabolic mirrors differentiates itself for its compactness and the possibility of easy integration also in roof-top applications. A detailed description of the module and of the systems will be given together with measured performances, and expectations for the next release.

  5. Are Lipases Still Important Biocatalysts? A Study of Scientific Publications and Patents for Technological Forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daiha, Karina de Godoy; Angeli, Renata; de Oliveira, Sabrina Dias; Almeida, Rodrigo Volcan

    2015-01-01

    The great potential of lipases is known since 1930 when the work of J. B. S. Haldane was published. After eighty-five years of studies and developments, are lipases still important biocatalysts? For answering this question the present work investigated the technological development of four important industrial sectors where lipases are applied: production of detergent formulations; organic synthesis, focusing on kinetic resolution, production of biodiesel, and production of food and feed products. The analysis was made based on research publications and patent applications, working as scientific and technological indicators, respectively. Their evolution, interaction, the major players of each sector and the main subject matters disclosed in patent documents were discussed. Applying the concept of technology life cycle, S-curves were built by plotting cumulative patent data over time to monitor the attractiveness of each technology for investment. The results lead to a conclusion that the use of lipases as biocatalysts is still a relevant topic for the industrial sector, but developments are still needed for lipase biocatalysis to reach its full potential, which are expected to be achieved within the third, and present, wave of biocatalysis.

  6. Are Lipases Still Important Biocatalysts? A Study of Scientific Publications and Patents for Technological Forecasting.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karina de Godoy Daiha

    Full Text Available The great potential of lipases is known since 1930 when the work of J. B. S. Haldane was published. After eighty-five years of studies and developments, are lipases still important biocatalysts? For answering this question the present work investigated the technological development of four important industrial sectors where lipases are applied: production of detergent formulations; organic synthesis, focusing on kinetic resolution, production of biodiesel, and production of food and feed products. The analysis was made based on research publications and patent applications, working as scientific and technological indicators, respectively. Their evolution, interaction, the major players of each sector and the main subject matters disclosed in patent documents were discussed. Applying the concept of technology life cycle, S-curves were built by plotting cumulative patent data over time to monitor the attractiveness of each technology for investment. The results lead to a conclusion that the use of lipases as biocatalysts is still a relevant topic for the industrial sector, but developments are still needed for lipase biocatalysis to reach its full potential, which are expected to be achieved within the third, and present, wave of biocatalysis.

  7. Forecast Forecasts the Trend

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    The latest release of "2009 China Luxury Forecast" shows that while the financial crisis is leading a general decline in demand for luxury brands in Europe,America and Japan,the global economic downturn has had limited impact on Chinese luxury consumption and that there is widespread confidence in the future among Chinese luxury consumers.

  8. Forecast Forecasts the Trend

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Ting

    2009-01-01

    @@ The latest release of "2009 China Luxury Forecast" shows that while the financial crisis is leading a general decline in demand for luxury brands in Europe,America and Japan,the global economic downturn has had limited impact on Chinese luxury consumption and that there is widespread confidence in the future among Chinese luxury consumers.

  9. FULL SCALE TESTING TECHNOLOGY MATURATION OF A THIN FILM EVAPORATOR FOR HIGH-LEVEL LIQUID WASTE MANAGEMENT AT HANFORD - 12125

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    TEDESCHI AR; CORBETT JE; WILSON RA; LARKIN J

    2012-01-26

    Simulant testing of a full-scale thin-film evaporator system was conducted in 2011 for technology development at the Hanford tank farms. Test results met objectives of water removal rate, effluent quality, and operational evaluation. Dilute tank waste simulant, representing a typical double-shell tank supernatant liquid layer, was concentrated from a 1.1 specific gravity to approximately 1.5 using a 4.6 m{sup 2} (50 ft{sup 2}) heated transfer area Rototherm{reg_sign} evaporator from Artisan Industries. The condensed evaporator vapor stream was collected and sampled validating efficient separation of the water. An overall decontamination factor of 1.2E+06 was achieved demonstrating excellent retention of key radioactive species within the concentrated liquid stream. The evaporator system was supported by a modular steam supply, chiller, and control computer systems which would be typically implemented at the tank farms. Operation of these support systems demonstrated successful integration while identifying areas for efficiency improvement. Overall testing effort increased the maturation of this technology to support final deployment design and continued project implementation.

  10. Dip Pen Nanolithography: a maturing technology for high-throughput flexible nanopatterning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haaheim, J. R.; Tevaarwerk, E. R.; Fragala, J.; Shile, R.

    2007-04-01

    Precision nanoscale deposition is a fundamental requirement for much of current nanoscience research. Further, depositing a wide range of materials as nanoscale features onto diverse surfaces is a challenging requirement for nanoscale processing systems. As a high resolution scanning probe-based direct-write technology, Dip Pen Nanolithography® (DPN®) satisfies and exceeds these fundamental requirements. Herein we specifically describe the massive scalability of DPN with two dimensional probe arrays (the 2D nano PrintArray). In collaboration with researchers at Northwestern University, we have demonstrated massively parallel nanoscale deposition with this 2D array of 55,000 pens on a centimeter square probe chip. (To date, this is the highest cantilever density ever reported.) This enables direct-writing flexible patterns with a variety of molecules, simultaneously generating 55,000 duplicates at the resolution of single-pen DPN. To date, there is no other way to accomplish this kind of patterning at this unprecedented resolution. These advances in high-throughput, flexible nanopatterning point to several compelling applications. The 2D nano PrintArray can cover a square centimeter with nanoscale features and pattern 10 7 μm2 per hour. These features can be solid state nanostructures, metals, or using established templating techniques, these advances enable screening for biological interactions at the level of a few molecules, or even single molecules; this in turn can enable engineering the cell-substrate interface at sub-cellular resolution.

  11. Knowledge/Data Mining, Assessment and Forecasting of Ground Military Vehicle Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-11

    or . UNCLASSIFIED 4 National Automotive Center “Shifted- Gears Organization”NAC-TARDECs Technology Thrust Areas TARDEC Chief Scientist Director...Displacement      12. Uniform Potential • To reduce load to lift / lower ‐ Pulleys • Rollers on luggage • Rollerblading to work UNCLASSIFIED 19 Some

  12. The Forecasting of 3G Market in India Based on Revised Technology Acceptance Model

    CERN Document Server

    Singh, Sudha; Singh, M K; Singh, Sujeet Kumar; 10.5121/ijngn.2010.2206

    2010-01-01

    3G, processor of 2G services, is a family of standards for mobile telecommunications defined by the International Telecommunication Union [1]. 3G services include wide-area wireless voice telephone, video calls, and wireless data, all in a mobile environment. It allows simultaneous use of speech and data services and higher data rates.3G is defined to facilitate growth, increased bandwidth and support more diverse applications. The focus of this study is to examine the factors affecting the adoption of 3G services among Indian people. The study adopts the revised Technology Acceptance Model by adding five antecedents-perceived risks, cost of adoption, perceived service quality, subjective norms, and perceived lack of knowledge. Data have collected from more than 400 school/college/Institution students & employees of various Government/Private sectors using interviews & various convenience sampling procedures and analyzed using MS excel and MATLAB. Result shows that perceived usefulness has the most si...

  13. 风电预测技术及其性能评价综述%A Review of the Wind Power Forecasting Technology and Its Performance Evaluation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郑婷婷; 王海霞; 李卫东

    2013-01-01

      随着入网风电比例的增加,风电预测已成为保证电网安全经济运行的必要技术。归纳了风电预测的概念与分类,综述了实用风电预测系统和理论研究的最新进展,尤其是关于风电预测技术的性能评价以及监督考核措施。提出了几点未来工作的思路,为风电预测相关研究提供参考。%With the proportion growth of wind power integrated into the power system, wind power forecasting has become an indispensable technology to ensure the safe and economical operation of the system. Summarizing the concepts and classification of wind power forecasting, this paper does a review on the development of practical application and theoretical study of wind power forecasting system, especially about its performance evaluation and supervision measures. Finally, some challenges and future works are put forward as a reference for the relevant study of wind power forecasting.

  14. Multidisciplinary studies of the social, economic and political impact resulting from recent advances in satellite meteorology. Volume 6: Executive summary. [technological forecasting spacecraft control/attitude (inclination) -classical mechanics

    Science.gov (United States)

    1975-01-01

    An assessment of the technological impact of modern satellite weather forecasting for the United States is presented. Topics discussed are: (1) television broadcasting of weather; (2) agriculture (crop production); (3) water resources; (4) urban development; (5) recreation; and (6) transportation.

  15. Forecasting Skill

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-01-01

    indicated that forecasting experience has little relationship to forecasting performance. In the latter three studies, neophyte forecasters became... Europe . Within a few months after a new commander was assigned, this unit’s performance rose to first place in the theater and remained there

  16. Further Discussion the Development on New Weather Forecasting Technology System%再论气象台天气预报技术新体系的发展

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    徐羹慧

    2012-01-01

    在前期对气象台天气预报技术发展的现状分析、发展趋势预测的基础上,从气象台天气预报技术的基本属性分析出发,进一步探讨气象台天气预报技术体系的基本框架和内容,并就推进技术发展的若干重要问题进行讨论。本文认为,如同“临床医学”一样,建筑在多种优秀成果基础上气象台天气预报技术的发展已自成体系,要象重视数值天气预报那样重视气象台预报技术体系的发展,发挥气象科技进步的综合效益,加快气象台一线预报服务水平的提高。%Based on the previous analysis upon the progress of weather forecasting system and the prediction of its developing tendency, the fundamental frame and content of weather forecasting technology system and several important issues regarding advancing technology were further discussed in this paper through analyzing the basic attribute of weather prediction skills. It was advocated that, just as "Clinical Medicine" ,the weather prediction technology founded upon various excellent researching outcomes has already had its own system. Just like numerical weather forecast ,the development of weather prediction technology system should be emphasized. Not only the benefit of the advanced meteorological science and technology should be exerted ,but also the improving process of weather prediction should be speeded up.

  17. The Status of Budget Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel W. Williams

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available This article examines the breadth of the current forecast literature as it relates to public budget making. It serves to provide summary information to decision-makers who otherwise do not have the resources to learn more than a small amount focused on much more narrowly defined areas of forecasting (such as the politics of forecast bias. Next, it serves those who perform forecasting related to budgeting by reviewing the current methods and practices commonly used in this domain. It also provides a ground level for future public budget forecasting research. Finally, this article identifies several areas in which the public forecasting literature needs additional development. Several of these areas, such as the effectiveness of nonregression-based forecasting techniques, are quite important to the majority of governments in the United States and other subnational jurisdictions, where budget offices are limited and resource investments in technology are scarce.

  18. 台湾常见火龙果产期调节技术%Biological characteristics and maturity regulating technology of Pitaya

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    许明; 翁武斌

    2015-01-01

    Maturity regulating is one of the key technologies in fruit production. Biological characteristics of pitaya and several maturity regulating technology measures commonly used in Taiwan pitaya production were introduced in this paper,including training and pruning,light treatment during the night,hydrophobic treatment and drug treatment,etc.%产期调节是果树生产上的关键技术之一。该文介绍火龙果的生物学特性及台湾生产上常见的几种火龙果产期调节技术措施,包括整枝修剪、夜间灯照、疏花处理及药剂处理等。

  19. Demand forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Gregor, Belčec

    2011-01-01

    Companies operate in an increasingly challenging environment that requires them to continuously improve all areas of the business process. Demand forecasting is one area in manufacturing companies where we can hope to gain great advantages. Improvements in forecasting can result in cost savings throughout the supply chain, improve the reliability of information and the quality of the service for our customers. In the company Danfoss Trata, d. o. o. we did not have a system for demand forecast...

  20. Forecasting Interest Rates and Inflation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chun, Albert Lee

    the best overall for short horizon forecasts of short to medium term yields and inflation. Econometric models with shrinkage perform the best over longer horizons and maturities. Aggregating over a larger set of analysts improves inflation surveys while generally degrading interest rates surveys. We...

  1. CAT5:A Tool for Measuring the Maturity Level of Information Technology Governance Using COBIT 5 Framework

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Souhaïl El ghazi El Houssaïni; Karim Youssfi; Jaouad Boutahar

    2016-01-01

    .... CAT5 is based on COBIT 5 framework and the design used is Unified Modeling Language. Through stages of information system development, this research results in an application for measuring the maturity level of IT governance that can be used in assessing existing IT governance.

  2. LOX Gene Transcript Accumulation in Olive (Olea europaea L. Fruits at Different Stages of Maturation: Relationship between Volatile Compounds, Environmental Factors, and Technological Treatments for Oil Extraction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Innocenzo Muzzalupo

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The quality of olive oil is influenced by genetic and environmental factors and by the maturation state of drupes, but it is equally affected by technological treatments of the process. This work investigates the possible correlation between olive LOX gene transcript accumulation, evaluated in fruits collected at different stages of maturation, and chemical biomarkers of its activity. During olive fruit ripening, the same genotype harvested from two different farms shows a positive linear trend between LOX relative transcript accumulation and the content of volatile compounds present in the olive oil aroma. Interestingly, a negative linear trend was observed between LOX relative transcript accumulation and the content of volatile compounds present in the olive pastes obtained from olive fruits with and without malaxation. The changes in the olive LOX transcript accumulation reveal its environmental regulation and suggest differential physiological functions for the LOXs.

  3. LOX Gene transcript accumulation in olive (Olea europaea L.) fruits at different stages of maturation: relationship between volatile compounds, environmental factors, and technological treatments for oil extraction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muzzalupo, Innocenzo; Macchione, Barbara; Bucci, Cristina; Stefanizzi, Francesca; Perri, Enzo; Chiappetta, Adriana; Tagarelli, Antonio; Sindona, Giovanni

    2012-01-01

    The quality of olive oil is influenced by genetic and environmental factors and by the maturation state of drupes, but it is equally affected by technological treatments of the process. This work investigates the possible correlation between olive LOX gene transcript accumulation, evaluated in fruits collected at different stages of maturation, and chemical biomarkers of its activity. During olive fruit ripening, the same genotype harvested from two different farms shows a positive linear trend between LOX relative transcript accumulation and the content of volatile compounds present in the olive oil aroma. Interestingly, a negative linear trend was observed between LOX relative transcript accumulation and the content of volatile compounds present in the olive pastes obtained from olive fruits with and without malaxation. The changes in the olive LOX transcript accumulation reveal its environmental regulation and suggest differential physiological functions for the LOXs.

  4. Environmental management maturity of local and multinational high-technology corporations located in Brazil: the role of business internationalization in pollution prevention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanna Maialle

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract This paper identifies and characterizes the environmental maturity level of local and multinational high-technology corporations located in Brazil. This characterization is achieved by discussing the adoption of environmental management practices and considering aspects of the productive process stage. An eight-case study was conducted through data triangulation using interviews with employees in diverse organizational areas, direct observations and secondary data. The results indicate the differences in environmental positioning among the studied corporations with a predominance of preventive practices, i.e., an emphasis on eco-efficiency and compliance with legislation. It was also noted that environmental concerns in the corporations are related to internationalization and, in some cases, to the pressure exerted by corporations that represent the brand of the products produced in Brazil. Moreover, the adoption of environmental practices based on the productive process stage supported the environmental maturity classifications of the studied companies.

  5. The inadequacy between the photovoltaic subsidy mode and its technological maturity; L'inadequation du mode de subvention du photovoltaique a sa maturite technologique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Finon, D

    2008-12-15

    The author criticizes the current French program which aims at developing the photovoltaic (PV) sector through the development of highly subsidized markets. He states that the high purchase tariff is not the right instrument with respect to the PV technology development stage, and that it would be better to strengthen the R and D effort, notably in the thin-layer sector. Secondly, he criticizes the French approach for its too long tariff commitment, the absence of decreasing purchase tariff over 20 years, the useless addition of other aids (tax credits, VAT lowering, etc.), the absence of tariff decrease for new installations, the absence of distinction between variously mature technologies. Finally, he states that this programme will not reach the objective of building up a French photovoltaic sector because of the global competition context. According to him, an ambitious programme of subsidies for the R and D and some targeted technologies, and in favour of French manufacturers would be a better solution.

  6. A Study of the Perceptions Held by Information Technology Professionals in Relation to the Maturity, Value, and Practical Deployment of Big Data Solutions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Damon Andrick Runion

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available This research study investigated relationships between an information technology (IT professional's self-assigned understanding of big data and their assessment of the maturity, value, hype, and future trends of big data. The study also examined if there was any relationship between an IT professional's understanding of big data and the position they occupy professionally. The study consisted of a twenty question survey. Research findings indicate that IT professionals are still becoming familiar with big data and related technologies. The results supported rejecting two of the five hypotheses. The study produced evidence that there is a relationship between an IT professional's level of big data understanding and their expectation that there will be an increase in technological developments related to big data in the near future.

  7. The case for better PV forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alet, Pierre-Jean; Efthymiou, Venizelos; Graditi, Giorgio

    2016-01-01

    Rising levels of PV penetration mean increasingly sophisticated forecasting technologies are needed to maintain grid stability and maximise the economic value of PV systems. The Grid Integration working group of the European Technology and Innovation Platform – Photovoltaics (ETIP PV) shares...... the results of its ongoing research into the advantages and limitations of current forecasting technologies....

  8. Forecasting interest rates with shifting endpoints

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Van Dijk, Dick; Koopman, Siem Jan; Wel, Michel van der

    2014-01-01

    We consider forecasting the term structure of interest rates with the assumption that factors driving the yield curve are stationary around a slowly time-varying mean or ‘shifting endpoint’. The shifting endpoints are captured using either (i) time series methods (exponential smoothing) or (ii......) long-range survey forecasts of either interest rates or inflation and output growth, or (iii) exponentially smoothed realizations of these macro variables. Allowing for shifting endpoints in yield curve factors provides substantial and significant gains in out-of-sample predictive accuracy, relative...... to stationary and random walk benchmarks. Forecast improvements are largest for long-maturity interest rates and for long-horizon forecasts....

  9. Strategic Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this article is to present an overview of the area of strategic forecasting and its research directions and to put forward some ideas for improving management decisions. Design/methodology/approach: This article is conceptual but also informed by the author’s long contact...... and collaboration with various business firms. It starts by presenting an overview of the area and argues that the area is as much a way of thinking as a toolbox of theories and methodologies. It then spells out a number of research directions and ideas for management. Findings: Strategic forecasting is seen...... as a rebirth of long range planning, albeit with new methods and theories. Firms should make the building of strategic forecasting capability a priority. Research limitations/implications: The article subdivides strategic forecasting into three research avenues and suggests avenues for further research efforts...

  10. Exposure Forecaster

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Exposure Forecaster Database (ExpoCastDB) is EPA's database for aggregating chemical exposure information and can be used to help with chemical exposure...

  11. State of the art and taxonomy of prognostics approaches, trends of prognostics applications and open issues towards maturity at different technology readiness levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Javed, Kamran; Gouriveau, Rafael; Zerhouni, Noureddine

    2017-09-01

    Integrating prognostics to a real application requires a certain maturity level and for this reason there is a lack of success stories about development of a complete Prognostics and Health Management system. In fact, the maturity of prognostics is closely linked to data and domain specific entities like modeling. Basically, prognostics task aims at predicting the degradation of engineering assets. However, practically it is not possible to precisely predict the impending failure, which requires a thorough understanding to encounter different sources of uncertainty that affect prognostics. Therefore, different aspects crucial to the prognostics framework, i.e., from monitoring data to remaining useful life of equipment need to be addressed. To this aim, the paper contributes to state of the art and taxonomy of prognostics approaches and their application perspectives. In addition, factors for prognostics approach selection are identified, and new case studies from component-system level are discussed. Moreover, open challenges toward maturity of the prognostics under uncertainty are highlighted and scheme for an efficient prognostics approach is presented. Finally, the existing challenges for verification and validation of prognostics at different technology readiness levels are discussed with respect to open challenges.

  12. Swingbed Amine Carbon Dioxide Removal Flight Experiment - Feasibility Study and Concept Development for Cost-Effective Exploration Technology Maturation on The International Space Station

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodgson, Edward; Papale, William; Nalette, Timothy; Graf, John; Sweterlitsch, Jeffery; Hayley, Elizabeth; Williams, Antony; Button, Amy

    2011-01-01

    The completion of International Space Station Assembly and transition to a full six person crew has created the opportunity to create and implement flight experiments that will drive down the ultimate risks and cost for human space exploration by maturing exploration technologies in realistic space environments that are impossible or incredibly costly to duplicate in terrestrial laboratories. An early opportunity for such a technology maturation experiment was recognized in the amine swingbed technology baselined for carbon dioxide and humidity control on the Orion spacecraft and Constellation Spacesuit System. An experiment concept using an existing high fidelity laboratory swing bed prototype has been evaluated in a feasibility and concept definition study leading to the conclusion that the envisioned flight experiment can be both feasible and of significant value for NASA s space exploration technology development efforts. Based on the results of that study NASA has proceeded with detailed design and implementation for the flight experiment. The study effort included the evaluation of technology risks, the extent to which ISS provided unique opportunities to understand them, and the implications of the resulting targeted risks for the experiment design and operational parameters. Based on those objectives and characteristics, ISS safety and integration requirements were examined, experiment concepts developed to address them and their feasibility assessed. This paper will describe the analysis effort and conclusions and present the resulting flight experiment concept. The flight experiment, implemented by NASA and launched in two packages in January and August 2011, integrates the swing bed with supporting elements including electrical power and controls, sensors, cooling, heating, fans, air- and water-conserving functionality, and mechanical packaging structure. It is now on board the ISS awaiting installation and activation.

  13. Foresight and Forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kilbourn, Kyle; Bay, Marie Brøndum

    In predicting areas of growth, public innovation projects may rely on optimistic visions of technology still in development as a way of ensuring novelty for funding. This paper explores what happens when forecasts of robotic technology meets the practice of sterile supply in a preliminary stage......, the most sustainable innovation stems from the dialogical interaction between practitioner foresight and societal forecasting, requiring continued development of participatory design as it moves into new contexts....... of an ongoing project. We examine the nature of participation in design on three levels: in the sterilization ward, this particular project and society in general. From our case, we suggest that while innovation projects proceeding from a certain technological perspective can succeed at building excitement...

  14. Adapting a Markov Monte Carlo simulation model for forecasting the number of coronary artery revascularisation procedures in an era of rapidly changing technology and policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mannan, Haider R; Knuiman, Matthew; Hobbs, Michael

    2008-06-25

    Treatments for coronary heart disease (CHD) have evolved rapidly over the last 15 years with considerable change in the number and effectiveness of both medical and surgical treatments. This period has seen the rapid development and uptake of statin drugs and coronary artery revascularization procedures (CARPs) that include Coronary Artery Bypass Graft procedures (CABGs) and Percutaneous Coronary Interventions (PCIs). It is difficult in an era of such rapid change to accurately forecast requirements for treatment services such as CARPs. In a previous paper we have described and outlined the use of a Markov Monte Carlo simulation model for analyzing and predicting the requirements for CARPs for the population of Western Australia (Mannan et al, 2007). In this paper, we expand on the use of this model for forecasting CARPs in Western Australia with a focus on the lack of adequate performance of the (standard) model for forecasting CARPs in a period during the mid 1990s when there were considerable changes to CARP technology and implementation policy and an exploration and demonstration of how the standard model may be adapted to achieve better performance. Selected key CARP event model probabilities are modified based on information relating to changes in the effectiveness of CARPs from clinical trial evidence and an awareness of trends in policy and practice of CARPs. These modified model probabilities and the ones obtained by standard methods are used as inputs in our Markov simulation model. The projected numbers of CARPs in the population of Western Australia over 1995-99 only improve marginally when modifications to model probabilities are made to incorporate an increase in effectiveness of PCI procedures. However, the projected numbers improve substantially when, in addition, further modifications are incorporated that relate to the increased probability of a PCI procedure and the reduced probability of a CABG procedure stemming from changed CARP preference

  15. Adapting a Markov Monte Carlo simulation model for forecasting the number of Coronary Artery Revascularisation Procedures in an era of rapidly changing technology and policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Knuiman Matthew

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Treatments for coronary heart disease (CHD have evolved rapidly over the last 15 years with considerable change in the number and effectiveness of both medical and surgical treatments. This period has seen the rapid development and uptake of statin drugs and coronary artery revascularization procedures (CARPs that include Coronary Artery Bypass Graft procedures (CABGs and Percutaneous Coronary Interventions (PCIs. It is difficult in an era of such rapid change to accurately forecast requirements for treatment services such as CARPs. In a previous paper we have described and outlined the use of a Markov Monte Carlo simulation model for analyzing and predicting the requirements for CARPs for the population of Western Australia (Mannan et al, 2007. In this paper, we expand on the use of this model for forecasting CARPs in Western Australia with a focus on the lack of adequate performance of the (standard model for forecasting CARPs in a period during the mid 1990s when there were considerable changes to CARP technology and implementation policy and an exploration and demonstration of how the standard model may be adapted to achieve better performance. Methods Selected key CARP event model probabilities are modified based on information relating to changes in the effectiveness of CARPs from clinical trial evidence and an awareness of trends in policy and practice of CARPs. These modified model probabilities and the ones obtained by standard methods are used as inputs in our Markov simulation model. Results The projected numbers of CARPs in the population of Western Australia over 1995–99 only improve marginally when modifications to model probabilities are made to incorporate an increase in effectiveness of PCI procedures. However, the projected numbers improve substantially when, in addition, further modifications are incorporated that relate to the increased probability of a PCI procedure and the reduced probability of a CABG

  16. 需求成熟度模型的商业银行零售客户交叉购买行为预测研究%Forecast of Retail Customer’s Cross-Buying Behavior of A Commercial Bank Based on Customer Demand Maturity

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    田敏; 李纯青; 李雪萍

    2013-01-01

    以我国某商业银行作为研究对象,构建了商业银行零售客户交叉购买行为预测模型,对商业银行零售客户的购买类别进行预测.研究结果显示,采用需求成熟度效用模型能够较好的预测客户购买决策,预测准确性达到81.23%.预测结果为商业银行有效开展交叉销售营销活动提供了理论支持与实践指导.%A consumer ’ s cross-buying behavior model to forecast the customer ’ s behavior in a commercial bank .The empirical results show that the customer utility model by using demand maturity can well predict customer’s purchasing decisions ,with the forecast accuracy of the model is 81 .23% .The forecast results providea theoretical support and practical guidance for the commercial bank ’ s cross-selling marketing strategy .

  17. Forecasting metal prices: Do forecasters herd?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pierdzioch, C.; Rulke, J. C.; Stadtmann, G.

    2013-01-01

    We analyze more than 20,000 forecasts of nine metal prices at four different forecast horizons. We document that forecasts are heterogeneous and report that anti-herding appears to be a source of this heterogeneity. Forecaster anti-herding reflects strategic interactions among forecasters...

  18. Broadband Traffic Forecasting in the Transport Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valentina Radojičić

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a modification of traffic forecast model generated by residential and small business (SOHO, Small Office Home Office users. The model includes forecasted values of different relevant factors and competition on broadband market. It allows forecasting the number of users for various broadband technologies and interaction impact of long-standing technologies as well as the impact of the new technology entrant on the market. All the necessary parameters are evaluated for the Serbian broadband market. The long-term forecasted results of broadband traffic are given. The analyses and evaluations performed are important inputs for the transport network resources planning.

  19. Interactive Forecasting with the National Weather Service River Forecast System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, George F.; Page, Donna

    1993-01-01

    The National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) consists of several major hydrometeorologic subcomponents to model the physics of the flow of water through the hydrologic cycle. The entire NWSRFS currently runs in both mainframe and minicomputer environments, using command oriented text input to control the system computations. As computationally powerful and graphically sophisticated scientific workstations became available, the National Weather Service (NWS) recognized that a graphically based, interactive environment would enhance the accuracy and timeliness of NWS river and flood forecasts. Consequently, the operational forecasting portion of the NWSRFS has been ported to run under a UNIX operating system, with X windows as the display environment on a system of networked scientific workstations. In addition, the NWSRFS Interactive Forecast Program was developed to provide a graphical user interface to allow the forecaster to control NWSRFS program flow and to make adjustments to forecasts as necessary. The potential market for water resources forecasting is immense and largely untapped. Any private company able to market the river forecasting technologies currently developed by the NWS Office of Hydrology could provide benefits to many information users and profit from providing these services.

  20. Seamless transitions from early prototypes to mature operational software - A technology that enables the process for planning and scheduling applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hornstein, Rhoda S.; Wunderlich, Dana A.; Willoughby, John K.

    1992-01-01

    New and innovative software technology is presented that provides a cost effective bridge for smoothly transitioning prototype software, in the field of planning and scheduling, into an operational environment. Specifically, this technology mixes the flexibility and human design efficiency of dynamic data typing with the rigor and run-time efficiencies of static data typing. This new technology provides a very valuable tool for conducting the extensive, up-front system prototyping that leads to specifying the correct system and producing a reliable, efficient version that will be operationally effective and will be accepted by the intended users.

  1. General forecasting correcting formula

    OpenAIRE

    Harin, Alexander

    2009-01-01

    A general forecasting correcting formula, as a framework for long-use and standardized forecasts, is created. The formula provides new forecasting resources and new possibilities for expansion of forecasting including economic forecasting into the areas of municipal needs, middle-size and small-size business and, even, to individual forecasting.

  2. General forecasting correcting formula

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    A general forecasting correcting formula, as a framework for long-use and standardized forecasts, is created. The formula provides new forecasting resources and new possibilities for expansion of forecasting including economic forecasting into the areas of municipal needs, middle-size and small-size business and, even, to individual forecasting.

  3. Information Forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanneman, Gerhard J.

    Information forecasting provides a means of anticipating future message needs of a society or predicting the necessary types of information that will allow smooth social functioning. Periods of unrest and uncertainty in societies contribute to "societal information overload," whereby an abundance of information channels can create communication…

  4. Needed Actions within Defense Acquisitions Based on a Forecast of Future Mobile Information and Communications Technologies Deployed in Austere Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-01

    almost autonomously by interacting within its environment without human intervention (Gorcin & Arslan, 2008). Accordingly, networks are increasingly...technology: The first technological steps-sharp edges, fire, the wheel -took tens of thousands of years. For people living in this era, there was...Keeney, S., McKenna, H. (2000). Research Guidelines for the Delphi Survey Technique. Journal of Advanced Nursing , 32(4), 1008-1015. Hasson, F

  5. Skillful seasonal forecasts of Arctic sea ice retreat and advance dates in a dynamical forecast system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sigmond, M.; Reader, M. C.; Flato, G. M.; Merryfield, W. J.; Tivy, A.

    2016-12-01

    The need for skillful seasonal forecasts of Arctic sea ice is rapidly increasing. Technology to perform such forecasts with coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice systems has only recently become available, with previous skill evaluations mainly limited to area-integrated quantities. Here we show, based on a large set of retrospective ensemble model forecasts, that a dynamical forecast system produces skillful seasonal forecasts of local sea ice retreat and advance dates - variables that are of great interest to a wide range of end users. Advance dates can generally be skillfully predicted at longer lead times ( 5 months on average) than retreat dates ( 3 months). The skill of retreat date forecasts mainly stems from persistence of initial sea ice anomalies, whereas advance date forecasts benefit from longer time scale and more predictable variability in ocean temperatures. These results suggest that further investments in the development of dynamical seasonal forecast systems may result in significant socioeconomic benefits.

  6. A mature industrial solution for ITER divertor plasma facing components: hypervapotron cooling concept adapted to Tore Supra flat tile technology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Escourbiac, F.; Missirlian, M.; Schlosser, J. [Association EURATOM-CEA Cadarache, Departement de Recherches sur la Fusion Controlee, 13 - Saint Paul lez Durance (France); Bobin-Vastra, I. [AREVA Centre Technique de Framatome, 71 - Le Creusot (France); Kuznetsov, V. [Efremov Institute, Doroga na Metallostroy, St. Petersburg (Russian Federation); Schedler, B. [Plansee AG, Reutte (Austria)

    2004-07-01

    The use of flat tile technology to handle heat fluxes in the range of 20 MW/m{sup 2} with components relevant for fusion experiment applications is technically possible with the hypervapotron cooling concept. This paper deals with recent high heat flux performances operated with success on 2 identical mock-ups, based on this concept, that were tested in 2 different electron gun facilities. Each mock-up consisted of a CuCrZr heat sink armored with 25 flat tiles of the 3D carbon fibre composite material SEPcarb NS31 assembled with pure copper by active metal casting (AMC). The AMC tiles were electron beam welded on the CuCrZr bar, fins and slots on the neutral beam JET design were machined into the bar, then the bar was closed with a thick CuCrZr rear plug including hydraulic connections then the bar was electron beam welded onto the sidewalls. The testing results show that full ITER design specifications were achieved with margins, the critical heat flux limit was even higher than 30 MW/m{sup 2}. These results highlight the high potential of this technology for ITER divertor application.

  7. Logical Design of a Decision Support System to Forecast Technology, Prices and Costs for the National Communications System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1984-09-01

    digital services upon ISDN technology growth can be modeled. The DSS is executed with the impacts as subjective values and are defined as desirable...communications media cost =I’ 2. Number of ISDN trained personnel = ’PI 3. Ccmpetiticn to provide digital services = ’C’ 4. Growth rate of ISDN

  8. Intensity and Development Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones by the JMA High-Resolution Global NWP Model: Impacts of Resolution Enhancement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komori, T.; Kitagawa, H.

    2007-12-01

    It is widely considered that a spatial resolution of numerical weather prediction (NWP) model plays an important role for forecasting severe weather events such as tropical cyclones (TCs) and heavy rainfall. Under the KAKUSHIN project (funded by the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology), the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has developed a new Global Spectral Model (GSM) with a high horizontal resolution of about 20km and 60 vertical layers (hereafter called g20km GSMh), which is utilized to evaluate severe weather events in future climate. The 20km GSM will be operational in November 2007 replacing the current GSM with a horizontal resolution of about 60km and 40 vertical layers (hereafter called g60km GSMh). In the present study, we investigate how a model resolution impacts on TC forecasts because this resolution enhancement aims to improve the model's ability to forecast severe weather. Due to the more realistic model topography in higher horizontal resolution, the 20km GSM can give more accurate forecasts of orographic precipitation than the 60km GSM, especially over the area range of heavy precipitation. According to the statistically verified results, the enhancement of horizontal and vertical resolution appears to fairly improve the accuracy of TC intensity forecasts. However, for TC track forecasts, it may be more important to accurately represent large-scale environmental contexts surrounding the TC than to resolve the TC structure itself. In order to clarify resolution impacts on the TC intensity prediction, we categorize the TC intensity forecasts into three stages (development stage, maturation stage and dissipation stage). The results show that the effectiveness of the resolution enhancement is bigger in the development stage and relatively small in the maturation and dissipation stages. For the maturation and dissipation stages, improvement of physical processes seems to be more important than the resolution

  9. Technical and Economic Forecast in Selection of Optimum Biomass and Local Fossil Fuel Application Technology for Thermal Electric Energy Generation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Bokun

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper provides a technical and economic analysis pertaining to selection of optimum biomass and local fossil fuel application technology for thermal electric energy generation while using a matrix of costs and a method of minimum value. Calculation results give grounds to assert that it is expedient to burn in the boiling layer – 69 % and 31 % of wood pellets and wastes, respectively and 54 % of peat and 46 % of slate stones. A steam and gas unit (SGU can fully operate on peat. Taking into account reorientation on decentralized power supply and increase of small power plants up to 3–5 MW the paper specifies variants of the most efficient technologies for burning biomass and local fossil fuels. 

  10. Forecast analysis on satellites that need de-orbit technologies: future scenarios for passive de-orbit devices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palla, Chiara; Kingston, Jennifer

    2016-09-01

    Propulsion-based de-orbit is a space-proven technology; however, this strategy can strongly limit operational lifetime, as fuel mass is dedicated to the de-orbiting. In addition previous reliability studies have identified the propulsion subsystem as one of the major contributors driving satellite failures. This issue brings the need to develop affordable de-orbit technologies with a limited reliance on the system level performance of the host satellite, ideally largely passive methods. Passive disposal strategies which take advantage of aerodynamic drag as the de-orbit force are particularly attractive because they are independent of spacecraft propulsion capabilities. This paper investigates the future market for passive de-orbit devices in LEO to aid in defining top-level requirements for the design of such devices. This is performed by considering the compliances of projected future satellites with the Inter Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee de-orbit time, to quantify the number of spacecraft that are compliant or non-compliant with the guidelines and, in this way, determine their need for the previously discussed devices. The study is performed by using the SpaceTrak™ database which provides future launch schedules, and spacecraft information; the de-orbit analysis is carried out by means of simulations with STELA. A case study of a passive strategy is given by the de-orbit mechanism technological demonstrator, which is currently under development at Cranfield University and designed to deploy a drag sail at the end of the ESEO satellite mission.

  11. Applied Technologies and Prospects of Conformance Control Treatments in China Technologies et perspectives pour l’amélioration du profil de balayage dans les champs pétroliers matures produits par injection d’eau en Chine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liu Yuzhang

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available China is the largest user of chemical-based conformance control treatments and a series of technologies have been successfully developed and deployed in recent years. This paper first shows the milestones of development and application of conformance control technologies in China. Then integrated conformance control technologies are reviewed followed by the lessons we have learned, and then a few major specific conformance control technologies are addressed, including tracer injection and channels explanation, potentiometric testing to identify areal sweep efficiency, Pressure Index (PI decisionmaking technology to select well candidate, complementary decision-making technology to select well candidate and design application parameters, and major chemicals for in-depth fluid diversion technologies. In addition, this paper also describes the principles and applications of some promising technologies of combined chemical-based conformance treatment with other EOR/IOR process, including the combination technology of surfactant and water shutoff, profile control and mini-scale surfactant flooding, acid treatment and profile control treatment. Finally, this paper summarizes the problems and challenges faced by mature water flooded oilfields in China. Based on recent well tests, tracer testing and interpretation, and previous water control treatment experience, it appears that channels or high permeability streaks are common in mature water flooded oilfields. Some research directions and promising technologies are suggested. La Chine est le plus grand utilisateur de méthodes chimiques pour l’amélioration du profil de balayage de l’eau pour l’exploitation des champs pétroliers matures. Toute une série de technologies y ont d’ailleurs été créées et déployées avec succès ces dernières années. Cet article commence par présenter les étapes du développement et de la mise en place de ces technologies de contrôle de profil en Chine

  12. Methods and technologies for surveying and forecasting the rice stem borers%水稻钻蛀性螟虫田间调查及测报技术

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陆明星; 陆自强; 杜予州

    2014-01-01

    For a long time, the rice stem borers are main insect pest in rice. With the change of rice cultivation and climate change, the populations of the rice stem borers increase gradually, which damage the rice yield more and more seriously in recent years. Therefore, it’s very meaningful for the integrated management of the rice stem borers to investigate the dynamics scientifically and forecast accurately their trends. According to biological characteristics of Sesamia inferens (Walker), Chilo suppressalis (Walker), Scirpophaga incertulas (Walker), the surveying methods of these borers in the field were summarized. And three forecasting methods of occurrence stage were demonstrated. Moreover, some attentions during the survey were discussed. In conclusion, these methods and technologies will provide a strong foundation for the integrated management of the rice stem borers.%长期以来,水稻钻蛀性螟虫都是我国水稻上的重要害虫。近年来,随着水稻栽培制度的变更及全球性气候的变化,种群数量逐渐回升,为害日趋严重。因此,科学的调查方法和准确的预测预报,对该类害虫的综合治理具有重要意义。本文根据大螟Sesamia inferens(Walker)、二化螟Chilo suppressalis(Walker)和三化螟Scirpophaga incertulas(Walker)的生物学特性,总结了这3种水稻钻蛀性螟虫的田间调查方法;阐述了它们的发生期预测方法;探讨了在调查取样过程中的注意事项,以期为我国水稻钻蛀性螟虫的综合防治提供可靠的数据支撑。

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kmci Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. krwl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kpsp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kcmi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kbwi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kcre Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kpsc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. khie Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. klgu Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kahn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kbli Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kfay Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kabi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kfoe Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. koaj Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kmss Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kmlb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. paho Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. keyw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. klar Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. patk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kogd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. klse Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kgsp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. krog Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. pajn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kpkb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kaus Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kcar Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kaeg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. ksoa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. paom Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kgmu Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. khya Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kjfk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kpie Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kpns Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. ksat Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kcid Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. ksny Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. klch Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. khnd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. ksaf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kdec Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. ktvl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kttd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kluk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. ksdf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. krno Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kwwr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kowb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kcle Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kcxp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kgpi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. paun Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. keat Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. pasc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. koun Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. klee Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kiag Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kbmg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. pakn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kmmh Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kiln Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kbmi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kcha Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. pahn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. khon Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kpeq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kden Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kmia Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kmaf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. khsa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kvis Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. ktcl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kmrb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kcub Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kpdt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. ptkk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kcsm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. ksfo Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kjhw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kdab Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kecp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kmls Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kroc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kfod Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. khdn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. pabe Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. ktop Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. ktrk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. krvs Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kgld Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kama Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kmgm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. Analysis of the development and diffusion of technological innovations in oil spill forecasting: The MEDESS-4MS case

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcati, Alberto; Prete, M. Irene; Mileti, Antonio; Cortese, Mario; Zodiatis, George; Karaolia, Andria; Gauci, Adam; Drago, Aldo

    2016-11-01

    This paper presents a case study on the management of users' engagement in the development of a new technology. Based on the experience of MEDESS-4MS, an integrated operational model for oil spill Decision Support System covering the whole Mediterranean Sea, the case study is aimed at the development of a framework for user engagement and for the management of its dual logic. Indeed, users may play a dual role in the innovation process, contributing to both the design of the innovation and its promotion. Users contribute to shaping the innovation, by aggregating and integrating knowledge, and they facilitate its diffusion, by adopting the innovation and fostering its adoption within the socio-economic system.

  14. Business forecasting methods

    OpenAIRE

    Skribans, V.

    2002-01-01

    The paper comprises three parts: description of the forecasting conception, classification of forecasting methods, and the general forecasting model. The first part deals with the definition of business forecasting, the second classifies and deals in more detail with the most frequently practiced forecasting methods and comes up with recommendations how to apply them in specific situations. The third part present the analysis of newly established forecasting model.

  15. Solar power deployment: Forecasting and planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alanazi, Mohana

    The rapid growth of Photovoltaic (PV) technology has been very visible over the past decade. Recently, the penetration of PV plants to the existing grid has significantly increased. Such increase in the integration of solar energy has brought attention to the solar irradiance forecasting. This thesis presents a thorough research of PV technology, how solar power can be forecasted, and PV planning under uncertainty. Over the last decade, the PV was one of the fastest growing renewable energy technologies. However, the PV system output varies based on weather conditions. Due to the variability and the uncertainty of solar power, the integration of the electricity generated by PV system is considered one of the challenges that have confronted the PV system. This thesis proposes a new forecasting method to reduce the uncertainty of the PV output so the power operator will be able to accommodate its variability. The new forecasting method proposes different processes to be undertaken before the data is fed to the forecasting model. The method converts the data sets included in the forecasting from non-stationary data to a stationary data by applying different processes including: removing the offset, removing night time solar values, and normalization. The new forecasting method aims to reduce the forecasting error and analyzes the error effect on the long term planning through calculating the payback period considering different errors.

  16. Neural Network based Consumption Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Per Printz

    2016-01-01

    This paper describe a Neural Network based method for consumption forecasting. This work has been financed by the The ENCOURAGE project. The aims of The ENCOURAGE project is to develop embedded intelligence and integration technologies that will directly optimize energy use in buildings and enable...

  17. 渔场渔情分析预报业务化应用中的关键技术探讨%Key technologies of operational application in fishing ground analy-sis and forecasting

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    樊伟; 崔雪森; 伍玉梅; 周为峰; 陈雪忠

    2013-01-01

    It is very useful for commercial fishing and fishery management of fishing ground analysis and fore-casting based on spatial surveillance information technology. According to the results of our research and the op-erational application of distant water fishery fishing information service system, we review the key technology of fishing ground analysis and forecasting, including the data precision of marine environment factors derived from satellite remote sensing, data fusion of fishing ground environment factors of different sources, real time data ac-quirement of fishing boats position, data analysis methods and forecasting models. As a summary, we put forward the prospect with regard to the application of fishing ground forecasting study in the future.%  利用空间信息技术开展渔场渔情分析及预报对渔船捕捞作业及渔业管理等具有重要意义。本文在开展有关研究和所开发的大洋渔场渔情信息服务系统业务化应用的基础上,对渔场渔情分析预报业务化应用中涉及到的渔场环境数据精度、渔场环境数据融合、实时渔场信息获取、渔场分析方法及渔场预报模型等关键技术问题进行了较全面的探讨分析与总结,并对将来的应用或技术发展进行了展望,以期为今后的相关技术开发提供借鉴。

  18. Maturity Models Development in IS Research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lasrado, Lester Allan; Vatrapu, Ravi; Andersen, Kim Normann

    2015-01-01

    literature reveals that researchers have primarily focused on developing new maturity models pertaining to domain-specific problems and/or new enterprise technologies. We find rampant re-use of the design structure of widely adopted models such as Nolan’s Stage of Growth Model, Crosby’s Grid, and Capability...... of maturity models. Specifically, it explores maturity models literature in IS and standard guidelines, if any to develop maturity models, challenges identified and solutions proposed. Our systematic literature review of IS publications revealed over hundred and fifty articles on maturity models. Extant...

  19. Development of an oil spill forecast system for offshore China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yonggang; Wei, Zexun; An, Wei

    2016-07-01

    An oil spill forecast system for offshore China was developed based on Visual C++. The oil spill forecast system includes an ocean environmental forecast model and an oil spill model. The ocean environmental forecast model was designed to include timesaving methods, and comprised a parametrical wind wave forecast model and a sea surface current forecast model. The oil spill model was based on the "particle method" and fulfills the prediction of oil particle behavior by considering the drifting, evaporation and emulsification processes. A specific database was embedded into the oil spill forecast system, which contained fundamental information, such as the properties of oil, reserve of emergency equipment and distribution of marine petroleum platform. The oil spill forecast system was successfully applied as part of an oil spill emergency exercise, and provides an operational service in the Research and Development Center for Offshore Oil Safety and Environmental Technology.

  20. Evaluation of Coupled Model Forecasts of Ethiopian Highlands Summer Climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark R. Jury

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluates seasonal forecasts of rainfall and maximum temperature across the Ethiopian highlands from coupled ensemble models in the period 1981–2006, by comparison with gridded observational products (NMA + GPCC/CRU3. Early season forecasts from the coupled forecast system (CFS are steadier than European community medium range forecast (ECMWF. CFS and ECMWF April forecasts of June–August (JJA rainfall achieve significant fit (r2=0.27, 0.25, resp., but ECMWF forecasts tend to have a narrow range with drought underpredicted. Early season forecasts of JJA maximum temperature are weak in both models; hence ability to predict water resource gains may be better than losses. One aim of seasonal climate forecasting is to ensure that crop yields keep pace with Ethiopia’s growing population. Farmers using prediction technology are better informed to avoid risk in dry years and generate surplus in wet years.

  1. Demand forecast model based on CRM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Yuancui; Chen, Lichao

    2006-11-01

    With interiorizing day by day management thought that regarding customer as the centre, forecasting customer demand becomes more and more important. In the demand forecast of customer relationship management, the traditional forecast methods have very great limitation because much uncertainty of the demand, these all require new modeling to meet the demands of development. In this paper, the notion is that forecasting the demand according to characteristics of the potential customer, then modeling by it. The model first depicts customer adopting uniform multiple indexes. Secondly, the model acquires characteristic customers on the basis of data warehouse and the technology of data mining. The last, there get the most similar characteristic customer by their comparing and forecast the demands of new customer by the most similar characteristic customer.

  2. FORECASTING NEW PRODUCT SALES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Siriram

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This paper tests the accuracy of using Linear regression, Logistics regression, and Bass curves in selected new product rollouts, based on sales data. The selected new products come from the electronics and electrical engineering and information and communications technology industries. The eight selected products are: electronic switchgear, electric motors, supervisory control and data acquisition systems, programmable logic controllers, cell phones, wireless modules, routers, and antennas. We compare the Linear regression, Logistics regression and Bass curves with respect to forecasting using analysis of variance. The accuracy of these three curves is studied and conclusions are drawn. We use an expert panel to compare the different curves and provide lessons for managers to improve forecasting new product sales. In addition, comparison between the two industries is drawn, and areas for further research are indicated.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie artikel toets die akkuraatheid van die gebruik van linêere regressie, logistiese regressie en Bass-krommes by die bekendstelling van nuwe produkte gebaseer op verkoopsdata. Die geselekteerde nuwe produkte is uit die elektriese en elektroniese asook informasietegnologie- en kommunikasie bedrywe. Linêere regressie, logistiese regressie en Bass-krommes word vergelyk ten opsigte van vooruitskatting deur variansie te ontleed. Die akkuraatheid word ontleed en gevolgtrekkings gemaak. Die doel is om vooruitskatting van nuwe produkverkope te verbeter.

  3. STATUS AND PROSPECTS OF DEVELOPMENT RUSSIAN INNOVATION SPHERE THE PROGRAM OF THE PRESIDIUM OF RUSSIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES «Analysis and Forecast of long-term scientifi c trends and technological development: Russia and the World»

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Ivanter

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The problems of development of Russian innovation sector, taking into account progress level, global trends and prospects of both science and the conditions of social and economic development. The studies were conducted in the framework of the Program of the Presidium of RAS «Analysis and Forecast of long-term scientifi c trends and technological development: Russia and the World». The results led to the conclusions about the long-term goals, and the possible ways of achieving them.

  4. Artificial Intelligence as a Business Forecasting and Error Handling Tool

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md. Tabrez Quasim

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available  Any business enterprise must rely a lot on how well it can predict the future happenings. To cope up with the modern global customer demand, technological challenges, market competitions etc., any organization is compelled to foresee the future having maximum impact and least chances of errors. The traditional forecasting approaches have some limitations. That is why the business world is adopting the modern Artificial Intelligence based forecasting techniques. This paper has tried to present different types of forecasting and AI techniques that are useful in business forecasting. At the later stage we have also discussed the forecasting errors and the steps involved in planning the AI support system.

  5. Maturity Models Development in IS Research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lasrado, Lester Allan; Vatrapu, Ravi; Andersen, Kim Normann

    2015-01-01

    Maturity models are widespread in IS research and in particular, IT practitioner communities. However, theoretically sound, methodologically rigorous and empirically validated maturity models are quite rare. This literature review paper focuses on the challenges faced during the development...... literature reveals that researchers have primarily focused on developing new maturity models pertaining to domain-specific problems and/or new enterprise technologies. We find rampant re-use of the design structure of widely adopted models such as Nolan’s Stage of Growth Model, Crosby’s Grid, and Capability...... Maturity Model (CMM). Only recently have there been some research efforts to standardize maturity model development. We also identify three dominant views of maturity models and provide guidelines for various approaches of constructing maturity models with a standard vocabulary. We finally propose using...

  6. General correcting formula of forecasting?

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    A general correcting formula of forecasting (as a framework for long-use and standardized forecasts) is proposed. The formula provides new forecasting resources and areas of application including economic forecasting.

  7. General correcting formula of forecasting?

    OpenAIRE

    Harin, Alexander

    2009-01-01

    A general correcting formula of forecasting (as a framework for long-use and standardized forecasts) is proposed. The formula provides new forecasting resources and areas of application including economic forecasting.

  8. Optimizing Arteriovenous Fistula Maturation

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    Autogenous arteriovenous fistulas are the preferred vascular access in patients undergoing hemodialysis. Increasing fistula prevalence depends on increasing fistula placement, improving the maturation of fistula that fail to mature and enhancing the long-term patency of mature fistula. Percutaneous methods for optimizing arteriovenous fistula maturation will be reviewed.

  9. Demand Forecasting Errors

    OpenAIRE

    Mackie, Peter; Nellthorp, John; Laird, James

    2005-01-01

    Demand forecasts form a key input to the economic appraisal. As such any errors present within the demand forecasts will undermine the reliability of the economic appraisal. The minimization of demand forecasting errors is therefore important in the delivery of a robust appraisal. This issue is addressed in this note by introducing the key issues, and error types present within demand fore...

  10. Benchmarking Judgmentally Adjusted Forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); L.P. de Bruijn (Bert)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractMany publicly available macroeconomic forecasts are judgmentally adjusted model-based forecasts. In practice, usually only a single final forecast is available, and not the underlying econometric model, nor are the size and reason for adjustment known. Hence, the relative weights given

  11. Benchmarking judgmentally adjusted forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); L.P. de Bruijn (Bert)

    2015-01-01

    markdownabstractMany publicly available macroeconomic forecasts are judgmentally-adjusted model-based forecasts. In practice usually only a single final forecast is available, and not the underlying econometric model, nor are the size and reason for adjustment known. Hence, the relative weights

  12. Benchmarking judgmentally adjusted forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); L.P. de Bruijn (Bert)

    2015-01-01

    markdownabstractMany publicly available macroeconomic forecasts are judgmentally-adjusted model-based forecasts. In practice usually only a single final forecast is available, and not the underlying econometric model, nor are the size and reason for adjustment known. Hence, the relative weights give

  13. Forecasting freight flows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyk-Jensen, Stéphanie

    2011-01-01

    Trade patterns and transport markets are changing as a result of the growth and globalization of international trade, and forecasting future freight flow has to rely on trade forecasts. Forecasting freight flows is critical for matching infrastructure supply to demand and for assessing investment...

  14. Evaluating probability forecasts

    CERN Document Server

    Lai, Tze Leung; Shen, David Bo; 10.1214/11-AOS902

    2012-01-01

    Probability forecasts of events are routinely used in climate predictions, in forecasting default probabilities on bank loans or in estimating the probability of a patient's positive response to treatment. Scoring rules have long been used to assess the efficacy of the forecast probabilities after observing the occurrence, or nonoccurrence, of the predicted events. We develop herein a statistical theory for scoring rules and propose an alternative approach to the evaluation of probability forecasts. This approach uses loss functions relating the predicted to the actual probabilities of the events and applies martingale theory to exploit the temporal structure between the forecast and the subsequent occurrence or nonoccurrence of the event.

  15. Inaccuracy in traffic forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, Bent; Holm, Mette K. Skamris; Buhl, Søren Ladegaard

    2006-01-01

    that forecasters generally do a poor job of estimating the demand for transportation infrastructure projects. The result is substantial downside financial and economic risk. Forecasts have not become more accurate over the 30-year period studied. If techniques and skills for arriving at accurate demand forecasts...... forecasting. Highly inaccurate traffic forecasts combined with large standard deviations translate into large financial and economic risks. But such risks are typically ignored or downplayed by planners and decision-makers, to the detriment of social and economic welfare. The paper presents the data...

  16. 基于TRIZ对智能手机交互技术成熟度的预测%An Analysis of Smart Phone Interactive Technology Maturity Based on TRIZ

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张东方

    2014-01-01

    The research is about maturity of smart phone interactive technology. Based on S-curve of TRIZ evolution theory, though domestic patents relate smart phone interactive technologies, this paper uses logistic curve as tool do calculate and analyze invention patents and utility patents. The results show that smart phone interactive technologies has entered a mature stage at present, but there are a few years away from the saturation point.%针对智能手机交互技术的成熟度进行预测。以TRIZ进化理论的S曲线为基础,通过对国内专利中与智能手机交互技术有关的专利数据,对发明专利及实用新型专利分别以罗吉斯曲线为工具进行计算及相关分析。研究结果表明目前智能手机交互技术已经进入了成熟期,但距饱和点还有一定时间。

  17. Forecasting the Success of Governmental

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Konstantinos NIKOLOPOULOS

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Governments often use budget so as to provide incentives for citizens to adopt new policies, especially when these are promoting eco-friendly technologies e.g. to subsidise the price of a hybrid-car. The public money spent on each policy, is considered to be value-for–money only if many citizens do adopt the proposed policy. This is also known as the ‘cost-effectiveness’ or the ‘economic success’ of a new policy. The latter should not be confused with the ‘economic impact’ of the new policy, as this is usually referred to the respective macro/micro socio-economic impact. This study reports on a experiment with semi-experts using Structured Analogies (SA forecasting the success of a new policy promoting replacing old household air conditioners with energy saving units under a new environment and technology initiative implemented by a European government. The findings shows evidence that Structured Analogies (SA is a useful forecasting tool for policy making, however all methods predicted results that were considerably off the mark, indicating the difficulty of the forecasting task under examination.

  18. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Ruelke

    2013-01-01

    We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from...

  19. Maturity and maturity models in lean construction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claus Nesensohn

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available In recent years there has been an increasing interest in maturity models in management-related disciplines; which reflects a growing recognition that becoming more mature and having a model to guide the route to maturity can help organisations in managing major transformational change. Lean Construction (LC is an increasingly important improvement approach that organisations seek to embed. This study explores how to apply the maturity models to LC. Hence the attitudes, opinions and experiences of key industry informants with high levels of knowledge of LC were investigated. To achieve this, a review of maturity models was conducted, and data for the analysis was collected through a sequential process involving three methods. First a group interview with seven key informants. Second a follow up discussion with the same individuals to investigate some of the issues raised in more depth. Third an online discussion held via LinkedIn in which members shared their views on some of the results. Overall, we found that there is a lack of common understanding as to what maturity means in LC, though there is general agreement that the concept of maturity is a suitable one to reflect the path of evolution for LC within organisations.

  20. Maturity and maturity models in lean construction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claus Nesensohn

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available In recent years there has been an increasing interest in maturity models in management-related disciplines; which reflects a growing recognition that becoming more mature and having a model to guide the route to maturity can help organisations in managing major transformational change. Lean Construction (LC is an increasingly important improvement approach that organisations seek to embed. This study explores how to apply the maturity models to LC. Hence the attitudes, opinions and experiences of key industry informants with high levels of knowledge of LC were investigated. To achieve this, a review of maturity models was conducted, and data for the analysis was collected through a sequential process involving three methods. First a group interview with seven key informants. Second a follow up discussion with the same individuals to investigate some of the issues raised in more depth. Third an online discussion held via LinkedIn in which members shared their views on some of the results. Overall, we found that there is a lack of common understanding as to what maturity means in LC, though there is general agreement that the concept of maturity is a suitable one to reflect the path of evolution for LC within organisations.

  1. Prediction Techniques in Operational Space Weather Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhukov, Andrei

    2016-07-01

    The importance of forecasting space weather conditions is steadily increasing as our society is becoming more and more dependent on advanced technologies that may be affected by disturbed space weather. Operational space weather forecasting is still a difficult task that requires the real-time availability of input data and specific prediction techniques that are reviewed in this presentation, with an emphasis on solar and interplanetary weather. Key observations that are essential for operational space weather forecasting are listed. Predictions made on the base of empirical and statistical methods, as well as physical models, are described. Their validation, accuracy, and limitations are discussed in the context of operational forecasting. Several important problems in the scientific basis of predicting space weather are described, and possible ways to overcome them are discussed, including novel space-borne observations that could be available in future.

  2. The intersections between TRIZ and forecasting methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgeta BARBULESCU

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The authors’ intention is to correlate the basic knowledge in using the TRIZ methodology (Theory of Inventive Problem Solving or in Russian: Teoriya Resheniya Izobretatelskikh Zadatch as a problem solving tools meant to help the decision makers to perform more significant forecasting exercises. The idea is to identify the TRIZ features and instruments (40 inventive principles, i.e. for putting in evidence the noise and signal problem, for trend identification (qualitative and quantitative tendencies and support tools in technological forecasting, to make the decision-makers able to refine and to increase the level of confidence in the forecasting results. The interest in connecting TRIZ to forecasting methodology, nowadays, relates to the massive application of TRIZ methods and techniques for engineering system development world-wide and in growing application of TRIZ’s concepts and paradigms for improvements of non-engineering systems (including the business and economic applications.

  3. Inaccuracy in traffic forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, Bent; Holm, Mette K. Skamris; Buhl, Søren Ladegaard

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 210 projects in 14 nations worth US$58 billion. The study shows with very high statistical significance...... have improved over time, as often claimed by forecasters, this does not show in the data. For nine out of ten rail projects, passenger forecasts are overestimated; average overestimation is 106%. For 72% of rail projects, forecasts are overestimated by more than two-thirds. For 50% of road projects...... forecasting. Highly inaccurate traffic forecasts combined with large standard deviations translate into large financial and economic risks. But such risks are typically ignored or downplayed by planners and decision-makers, to the detriment of social and economic welfare. The paper presents the data...

  4. The strategy of professional forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ottaviani, Marco; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    2006-01-01

    We develop and compare two theories of professional forecasters’ strategic behavior. The first theory, reputational cheap talk, posits that forecasters endeavor to convince the market that they are well informed. The market evaluates their forecasting talent on the basis of the forecasts...... and the realized state. If the market expects forecasters to report their posterior expectations honestly, then forecasts are shaded toward the prior mean. With correct market expectations, equilibrium forecasts are imprecise but not shaded. The second theory posits that forecasters compete in a forecasting...... contest with pre-specified rules. In a winner-take-all contest, equilibrium forecasts are excessively differentiated...

  5. Late maturers at a performance disadvantage to their more mature peers in junior Australian football.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gastin, Paul B; Bennett, Gary

    2014-01-01

    Children and adolescents mature at different rates such that individuals competing in the same competition may differ in physical and biological maturity despite being of similar chronological age. Whether or not differences translate into on-field performance in competition is relatively unknown. This study investigated the influence of biological maturity on fitness and match running performance in junior Australian football. Eighty-seven under-15 years players were categorised into early (n = 20), average (n = 45) and late (n = 22) maturity groups based on self-reported and anthropometric assessment of biological maturity. Running movements during competition were collected using GPS (5 Hz) technology. Early maturers were heavier and taller than all other boys (P 14.4 km · h(-1)) running distance and number of high-intensity efforts were significantly greater (20.8%, 53.6%, 31.7%, respectively; P disadvantage to their earlier maturing peers.

  6. Advanced Geological Forecast and Construction Technology of Zhaoxing Super Long Tunnel%肇兴特长隧道超前地质预报与施工技术

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    何东

    2011-01-01

    以肇兴特长隧道为例,介绍了超前地质报设计体系及隧道炭质泥岩地层的施工方法.超前地质预报主要采用雷达法与陆地声纳法相结合进行探测,并结合水平钻孔探索的方法.对涧口浅埋地段和围岩与隧道行车洞身的施工方法以及辅助施丁方法和排水、通风措施进行了介绍,并提出了施工中应该注意的问题.%Based on Zhaoxing super long tunnel, advanced geological forecast design system and construction technology of carbonaceous mudstone layer are introduced. Radar method and land sonar method with horizontal drilling are adopted in advanced geological forecast. Construction method of hole shallow area, surrounding rock and tunnel body and drainage and ventilation measures are introduced.Some problems should be noticed in construction are proposed.

  7. 基于 WebGIS 的江西省山洪灾害预报系统设计与应用%DESIGN AND APPLICATION OF MOUNTAIN TORRENT DISASTER FORECASTING SYSTEM BASED ON WEBGIS TECHNOLOGY

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    樊建勇; 单九生; 管珉; 徐星生

    2013-01-01

      针对南方丘陵多雨地区山洪灾害防御需求,采用 B/S 三层体系结构设计了基于 WebGIS 技术和水文预报模型的江西省山洪灾害预报系统。系统提供山洪灾害实时预报、临近预报和短期预报山洪灾害风险产品,发布山洪灾害风险等级、基础地理信息等数据,实现了地图浏览、GIS 基本操作、图层管理、数据查询等功能。预报时效检验表明系统预报结果较山洪灾害实际发生时间提前3 h 以上,并在2009年7月2—3日赣州地区一次山洪过程进行模拟,能够准确预报出山洪风险等级,应用效果良好。%  To meet the needs of defending mountain torrent disaster in hilly and rainy areas in southern China, the Mountain Torrent Forecasting System is designed by using B/S three layers structure based on WebGIS technology and mountain torrent forecasting model, which can provide the real-time, nowcast and short term mountain torrent risk forecasting products immediately. And the mountain torrent risk products and basic geographical information data are also issued through this system. It achieves many functions, such as map browsing, GIS operating, map layer managing, data querying, etc. The results show that the forecasting limitation is three hours earlier than the actual time of the occurrence of mountain torrent. The application indicates good effect of the system on a typical mountain torrent event in Ganzhou city on July 2-3, 2009.

  8. Forecaster priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wetterhall, Fredrik; Pappenberger, Florian; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Cloke, Hannah; Thielen, Jutta

    2014-05-01

    Hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) have in recent years been increasingly used for the operational forecasting of floods by European hydrometeorological agencies. The most obvious advantage of HEPS is that more of the uncertainty in the modelling system can be assessed. In addition, ensemble prediction systems generally have better skill than deterministic systems both in the terms of the mean forecast performance and the potential forecasting of extreme events. Research efforts have so far mostly been devoted to the improvement of the physical and technical aspects of the model systems, such as increased resolution in time and space and better description of physical processes. Developments like these are certainly needed; however, in this paper we argue that there are other areas of HEPS that need urgent attention. This was also the result from a group exercise and a survey conducted to operational forecasters within the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) to identify the top priorities of improvement regarding their own system. They turned out to span a range of areas, the most popular being to include verification of an assessment of past forecast performance, a multi-model approach for hydrological modelling, to increase the forecast skill on the medium range (>3 days) and more focus on education and training on the interpretation of forecasts. In light of limited resources, we suggest a simple model to classify the identified priorities in terms of their cost and complexity to decide in which order to tackle them. This model is then used to create an action plan of short-, medium- and long-term research priorities with the ultimate goal of an optimal improvement of EFAS in particular and to spur the development of operational HEPS in general.

  9. Drug information systems: evolution of benefits with system maturity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leung, Valerie; Hagens, Simon; Zelmer, Jennifer

    2013-01-01

    Benefits from information and communication technology tend to grow over time as system use matures. This study examines pharmacists' experiences with provincial drug information systems (DIS) across Canada. At the time of survey, two provinces had more mature DIS (more than five years) and three provinces had less mature DIS (five years or less).

  10. Forecasting Housing Approvals in Australia: Do Forecasters Herd?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Rülke

    2012-01-01

    Price trends in housing markets may reflect herding of market participants. A natural question is whether such herding, to the extent that it occurred, reflects herding in forecasts of professional forecasters. Using more than 6,000 forecasts of housing approvals for Australia, we did not find...... evidence of forecaster herding. On the contrary, forecasters anti-herd and, thereby, tend to intentionally scatter their forecasts around the consensus forecast. The extent of anti-herding seems to vary over time.We also found that more pronounced anti-herding leads to less accurate forecasts....

  11. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Pierdzioch

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time.

  12. World Area Forecast System (WAFS)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The World Area Forecast System (WAFS) is a worldwide system by which world area forecast centers provide aeronautical meteorological en-route forecasts in uniform...

  13. Forecasting- where computational intelligence meets the stock market

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Edward TSANG

    2009-01-01

    Forecasting is an important activity in finance.Traditionally, forecasting has been done with in-depth knowledge in finance and the market. Advances in computational intelligence have created opportunities that were never there before. Computational finance techniques, machine learning in particular, can dramatically enhance our ability to forecast. They can help us to forecast ahead of our competitors and pick out scarce opportunities. This paper explains some of the opportunities offered by computational intelligence and some of the achievements so far. It also explains the underlying technologies and explores the research horizon.

  14. Forecasting with Colonel Blotto

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peeters, R.J.A.P.; Wolk, K.L.

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we design and test a competitive forecasting mechanism based on the Colonel Blotto game. In the game, forecasters allocate a fixed number of resources to different 'battlefields'. Each field is realized with a probability that is determined by a stochastic process. Subjects learn about

  15. Housing price forecastability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bork, Lasse; Møller, Stig Vinther

    2012-01-01

    We examine US housing price forecastability using a common factor approach based on a large panel of 122 economic time series. We …nd that a simple three-factor model generates an explanatory power of about 50% in one-quarter ahead in-sample forecasting regressions. The predictive power of the mo...

  16. Congressional Election Forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis-Beck, Michael S.; Rice, Tom W.

    1988-01-01

    Reviews the growing literature on the forecasting of elections, providing an example in the form of 1988 congressional election predictions. Briefly discusses the history of election outcome prediction and outlines two scientific forecasting models which, the authors state, are appropriate for use in the classroom. (GEA)

  17. Earthquake forecast enrichment scores

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine Smyth

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP is a global project aimed at testing earthquake forecast models in a fair environment. Various metrics are currently used to evaluate the submitted forecasts. However, the CSEP still lacks easily understandable metrics with which to rank the universal performance of the forecast models. In this research, we modify a well-known and respected metric from another statistical field, bioinformatics, to make it suitable for evaluating earthquake forecasts, such as those submitted to the CSEP initiative. The metric, originally called a gene-set enrichment score, is based on a Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic. Our modified metric assesses if, over a certain time period, the forecast values at locations where earthquakes have occurred are significantly increased compared to the values for all locations where earthquakes did not occur. Permutation testing allows for a significance value to be placed upon the score. Unlike the metrics currently employed by the CSEP, the score places no assumption on the distribution of earthquake occurrence nor requires an arbitrary reference forecast. In this research, we apply the modified metric to simulated data and real forecast data to show it is a powerful and robust technique, capable of ranking competing earthquake forecasts.

  18. On density forecast evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Diks, C.

    2008-01-01

    Traditionally, probability integral transforms (PITs) have been popular means for evaluating density forecasts. For an ideal density forecast, the PITs should be uniformly distributed on the unit interval and independent. However, this is only a necessary condition, and not a sufficient one, as

  19. Forecasting in Planning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ike, P.; Voogd, Henk; Voogd, Henk; Linden, Gerard

    2004-01-01

    This chapter begins with a discussion of qualitative forecasting by describing a number of methods that depend on judgements made by stakeholders, experts or other interested parties to arrive at forecasts. Two qualitative approaches are illuminated, the Delphi and scenario methods respectively. Qua

  20. Improving Garch Volatility Forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klaassen, F.J.G.M.

    1998-01-01

    Many researchers use GARCH models to generate volatility forecasts. We show, however, that such forecasts are too variable. To correct for this, we extend the GARCH model by distinguishing two regimes with different volatility levels. GARCH effects are allowed within each regime, so that our model