Comparison of State-Funded Technology Maturation Programs.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Warren, Drake [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hess, Marguerite Evelyn [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2016-12-01

This study examines the structure and impact of state-funded technology maturation programs that leverage research institutions for economic development throughout the United States. The lessons learned and practices identified from previous experiences will inform Sandia National Laboratories' Government Relations and Technology Partnerships teams as they participate in near-term discussions about the proposed Technology Readiness Gross Receipts Tax Credit and Program, and continue to shape longer-term program and partnership opportunities. This Page Intentionally Left Blank

Forecasting and observability: critical technologies for system operations with high PV penetration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Alet, Pierre-Jean; Efthymiou, Venizelos; Graditi, Giorgio

2016-01-01

– Photovoltaics (ETIP PV) reviews the different use cases for these technologies, their current status, and the need for future developments. Power system operations require a real-time view of PV production for managing power reserves and for feeding shortterm forecasts. They also require forecasts on all......Forecasting and monitoring technologies for photovoltaics are required on different spatial and temporal scales by multiple actors, from the owners of PV systems to transmission system operators. In this paper the Grid integration working group of the European Technology and Innovation Platform...... timescales from the short (for dispatching purposes), where statistical models work best, to the very long (for infrastructure planning), where physics-based models are more accurate. Power system regulations are driving the development of these techniques. This application also provides a good basis...

Cryogenic Propellant Storage and Transfer (CPST) Technology Maturation: Establishing a Foundation for a Technology Demonstration Mission (TDM)

Science.gov (United States)

Doherty, Michael P.; Meyer, Michael L.; Motil, Susan M.; Ginty, Carol A.

2014-01-01

As part of U.S. National Space Policy, NASA is seeking an innovative path for human space exploration, which strengthens the capability to extend human and robotic presence throughout the solar system. NASA is laying the groundwork to enable humans to safely reach multiple potential destinations, including asteroids, Lagrange points, the Moon and Mars. In support of this, NASA is embarking on the Technology Demonstration Mission Cryogenic Propellant Storage and Transfer (TDM CPST) Project to test and validate key cryogenic capabilities and technologies required for future exploration elements, opening up the architecture for large cryogenic propulsion stages (CPS) and propellant depots. The TDM CPST project will provide an on-orbit demonstration of the capability to store, transfer, and measure cryogenic propellants for a duration which is relevant to enable long term human space exploration missions beyond low Earth orbit (LEO). Recognizing that key cryogenic fluid management technologies anticipated for on-orbit (flight) demonstration needed to be matured to a readiness level appropriate for infusion into the design of the flight demonstration, the NASA Headquarters Space Technology Mission Directorate authorized funding for a one-year (FY12) ground based technology maturation program. The strategy, proposed by the CPST Project Manager, focused on maturation through modeling, studies, and ground tests of the storage and fluid transfer Cryogenic Fluid Management (CFM) technology sub-elements and components that were not already at a Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of 5. A technology maturation plan (TMP) was subsequently approved which described: the CFM technologies selected for maturation, the ground testing approach to be used, quantified success criteria of the technologies, hardware and data deliverables, and a deliverable to provide an assessment of the technology readiness after completion of the test, study or modeling activity. This paper will present

A review on technology maturity of small scale energy storage technologies★

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nguyen Thu-Trang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This paper reviews the current status of energy storage technologies which have the higher potential to be applied in small scale energy systems. Small scale energy systems can be categorized as ones that are able to supply energy in various forms for a building, or a small area, or a limited community, or an enterprise; typically, they are end-user systems. Energy storage technologies are classified based on their form of energy stored. A two-step evaluation is proposed for selecting suitable storage technologies for small scale energy systems, including identifying possible technical options, and addressing techno-economic aspects. Firstly, a review on energy storage technologies at small scale level is carried out. Secondly, an assessment of technology readiness level (TRL is conducted. The TRLs are ranked according to information gathered from literature review. Levels of market maturity of the technologies are addressed by taking into account their market development stages through reviewing published materials. The TRLs and the levels of market maturity are then combined into a technology maturity curve. Additionally, market driving factors are identified by using different stages in product life cycle. The results indicate that lead-acid, micro pumped hydro storage, NaS battery, NiCd battery, flywheel, NaNiCl battery, Li-ion battery, and sensible thermal storage are the most mature technologies for small scale energy systems. In the near future, hydrogen fuel cells, thermal storages using phase change materials and thermochemical materials are expected to become more popular in the energy storage market.

An Interval Estimation Method of Patent Keyword Data for Sustainable Technology Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daiho Uhm

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Technology forecasting (TF is forecasting the future state of a technology. It is exciting to know the future of technologies, because technology changes the way we live and enhances the quality of our lives. In particular, TF is an important area in the management of technology (MOT for R&D strategy and new product development. Consequently, there are many studies on TF. Patent analysis is one method of TF because patents contain substantial information regarding developed technology. The conventional methods of patent analysis are based on quantitative approaches such as statistics and machine learning. The most traditional TF methods based on patent analysis have a common problem. It is the sparsity of patent keyword data structured from collected patent documents. After preprocessing with text mining techniques, most frequencies of technological keywords in patent data have values of zero. This problem creates a disadvantage for the performance of TF, and we have trouble analyzing patent keyword data. To solve this problem, we propose an interval estimation method (IEM. Using an adjusted Wald confidence interval called the Agresti–Coull confidence interval, we construct our IEM for efficient TF. In addition, we apply the proposed method to forecast the technology of an innovative company. To show how our work can be applied in the real domain, we conduct a case study using Apple technology.

PATTERNS OF SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT AND THEIR USE IN FORECASTING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. I. Komkov

2010-01-01

Full Text Available In article laws of scientifically-technological development are considered. Their number concern traditional, base and new, formed. Possibilities and ways of the account of the listed laws are shown at forecasting of prospects of scientifically-technological development.

Energy demand forecasting method based on international statistical data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Glanc, Z.; Kerner, A.

1997-01-01

Poland is in a transition phase from a centrally planned to a market economy; data collected under former economic conditions do not reflect a market economy. Final energy demand forecasts are based on the assumption that the economic transformation in Poland will gradually lead the Polish economy, technologies and modes of energy use, to the same conditions as mature market economy countries. The starting point has a significant influence on the future energy demand and supply structure: final energy consumption per capita in 1992 was almost half the average of OECD countries; energy intensity, based on Purchasing Power Parities (PPP) and referred to GDP, is more than 3 times higher in Poland. A method of final energy demand forecasting based on regression analysis is described in this paper. The input data are: output of macroeconomic and population growth forecast; time series 1970-1992 of OECD countries concerning both macroeconomic characteristics and energy consumption; and energy balance of Poland for the base year of the forecast horizon. (author). 1 ref., 19 figs, 4 tabs

Energy demand forecasting method based on international statistical data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Glanc, Z; Kerner, A [Energy Information Centre, Warsaw (Poland)

1997-09-01

Poland is in a transition phase from a centrally planned to a market economy; data collected under former economic conditions do not reflect a market economy. Final energy demand forecasts are based on the assumption that the economic transformation in Poland will gradually lead the Polish economy, technologies and modes of energy use, to the same conditions as mature market economy countries. The starting point has a significant influence on the future energy demand and supply structure: final energy consumption per capita in 1992 was almost half the average of OECD countries; energy intensity, based on Purchasing Power Parities (PPP) and referred to GDP, is more than 3 times higher in Poland. A method of final energy demand forecasting based on regression analysis is described in this paper. The input data are: output of macroeconomic and population growth forecast; time series 1970-1992 of OECD countries concerning both macroeconomic characteristics and energy consumption; and energy balance of Poland for the base year of the forecast horizon. (author). 1 ref., 19 figs, 4 tabs.

Forecasting and Technology Management: Statistical Theory and Methodological Issues

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Henning

of directions and targets for a R and D project, monitoring of a given area by a public agency, and evaluation of the future competitive situation for a company. This paper gives a brief introduction to the field of technological forecasting especially in relation to the strategic planning process...

Extravehicular Activity Technology Development Status and Forecast

Science.gov (United States)

Chullen, Cinda; Westheimer, David T.

2011-01-01

The goal of NASA s current EVA technology effort is to further develop technologies that will be used to demonstrate a robust EVA system that has application for a variety of future missions including microgravity and surface EVA. Overall the objectives will be to reduce system mass, reduce consumables and maintenance, increase EVA hardware robustness and life, increase crew member efficiency and autonomy, and enable rapid vehicle egress and ingress. Over the past several years, NASA realized a tremendous increase in EVA system development as part of the Exploration Technology Development Program and the Constellation Program. The evident demand for efficient and reliable EVA technologies, particularly regenerable technologies was apparent under these former programs and will continue to be needed as future mission opportunities arise. The technological need for EVA in space has been realized over the last several decades by the Gemini, Apollo, Skylab, Space Shuttle, and the International Space Station (ISS) programs. EVAs were critical to the success of these programs. Now with the ISS extension to 2028 in conjunction with a current forecasted need of at least eight EVAs per year, the EVA hardware life and limited availability of the Extravehicular Mobility Units (EMUs) will eventually become a critical issue. The current EMU has successfully served EVA demands by performing critical operations to assemble the ISS and provide repairs of satellites such as the Hubble Space Telescope. However, as the life of ISS and the vision for future mission opportunities are realized, a new EVA systems capability will be needed and the current architectures and technologies under development offer significant improvements over the current flight systems. In addition to ISS, potential mission applications include EVAs for missions to Near Earth Objects (NEO), Phobos, or future surface missions. Surface missions could include either exploration of the Moon or Mars. Providing an

New Technology Trends in Education: Seven Years of Forecasts and Convergence

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, Sergio; Diaz, Gabriel; Sancristobal, Elio; Gil, Rosario; Castro, Manuel; Peire, Juan

2011-01-01

Each year since 2004, a new Horizon Report has been released. Each edition attempts to forecast the most promising technologies likely to impact on education along three horizons: the short term (the year of the report), the mid-term (the next 2 years) and the long term (the next 4 years). This paper analyzes the evolution of technology trends…

Patterns of Innovation in Alzheimer's Disease Drug Development: A Strategic Assessment Based on Technological Maturity.

Science.gov (United States)

Beierlein, Jennifer M; McNamee, Laura M; Walsh, Michael J; Ledley, Fred D

2015-08-01

This article examines the current status of translational science for Alzheimer's disease (AD) drug discovery by using an analytical model of technology maturation. Previous studies using this model have demonstrated that nascent scientific insights and inventions generate few successful leads or new products until achieving a requisite level of maturity. This article assessed whether recent failures and successes in AD research follow patterns of innovation observed in other sectors. The bibliometric-based Technology Innovation Maturation Evaluation model was used to quantify the characteristic S-curve of growth for AD-related technologies, including acetylcholinesterase, N-methyl-d-aspartate (NMDA) receptors, B-amyloid, amyloid precursor protein, presenilin, amyloid precursor protein secretases, apolipoprotein E4, and transactive response DNA binding protein 43 kDa (TDP-43). This model quantifies the accumulation of knowledge as a metric for technological maturity, and it identifies the point of initiation of an exponential growth stage and the point at which growth slows as the technology is established. In contrast to the long-established acetylcholinesterase and NMDA receptor technologies, we found that amyloid-related technologies reached the established point only after 2000, and that the more recent technologies (eg, TDP-43) have not yet approached this point. The first approvals for new molecular entities targeting acetylcholinesterase and the NMDA receptor occurred an average of 22 years after the respective technologies were established, with only memantine (which was phenotypically discovered) entering clinical trials before this point. In contrast, the 6 lead compounds targeting the formation of amyloid plaques that failed in Phase III trials between 2009 and 2014 all entered clinical trials before the respective target technologies were established. This analysis suggests that AD drug discovery has followed a predictable pattern of innovation in which

Past speculations of the future: a review of the methods used for forecasting emerging health technologies.

Science.gov (United States)

Doos, Lucy; Packer, Claire; Ward, Derek; Simpson, Sue; Stevens, Andrew

2016-03-10

Forecasting can support rational decision-making around the introduction and use of emerging health technologies and prevent investment in technologies that have limited long-term potential. However, forecasting methods need to be credible. We performed a systematic search to identify the methods used in forecasting studies to predict future health technologies within a 3-20-year timeframe. Identification and retrospective assessment of such methods potentially offer a route to more reliable prediction. Systematic search of the literature to identify studies reported on methods of forecasting in healthcare. People are not needed in this study. The authors searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsychINFO and grey literature sources, and included articles published in English that reported their methods and a list of identified technologies. Studies reporting methods used to predict future health technologies within a 3-20-year timeframe with an identified list of individual healthcare technologies. Commercially sponsored reviews, long-term futurology studies (with over 20-year timeframes) and speculative editorials were excluded. 15 studies met our inclusion criteria. Our results showed that the majority of studies (13/15) consulted experts either alone or in combination with other methods such as literature searching. Only 2 studies used more complex forecasting tools such as scenario building. The methodological fundamentals of formal 3-20-year prediction are consistent but vary in details. Further research needs to be conducted to ascertain if the predictions made were accurate and whether accuracy varies by the methods used or by the types of technologies identified. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Technology data characterizing refrigeration in commercial buildings: Application to end-use forecasting with COMMEND 4.0

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sezgen, O.; Koomey, J.G.

1995-12-01

In the United States, energy consumption is increasing most rapidly in the commercial sector. Consequently, the commercial sector is becoming an increasingly important target for state and federal energy policies and also for utility-sponsored demand side management (DSM) programs. The rapid growth in commercial-sector energy consumption also makes it important for analysts working on energy policy and DSM issues to have access to energy end-use forecasting models that include more detailed representations of energy-using technologies in the commercial sector. These new forecasting models disaggregate energy consumption not only by fuel type, end use, and building type, but also by specific technology. The disaggregation of the refrigeration end use in terms of specific technologies, however, is complicated by several factors. First, the number of configurations of refrigeration cases and systems is quite large. Also, energy use is a complex function of the refrigeration-case properties and the refrigeration-system properties. The Electric Power Research Institute`s (EPRI`s) Commercial End-Use Planning System (COMMEND 4.0) and the associated data development presented in this report attempt to address the above complications and create a consistent forecasting framework. Expanding end-use forecasting models so that they address individual technology options requires characterization of the present floorstock in terms of service requirements, energy technologies used, and cost-efficiency attributes of the energy technologies that consumers may choose for new buildings and retrofits. This report describes the process by which we collected refrigeration technology data. The data were generated for COMMEND 4.0 but are also generally applicable to other end-use forecasting frameworks for the commercial sector.

Technological developments in real-time operational hydrologic forecasting in the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Hudlow, Michael D.

1988-09-01

The hydrologic forecasting service of the United States spans applications and scales ranging from those associated with the issuance of flood and flash warnings to those pertaining to seasonal water supply forecasts. New technological developments (underway in or planned by the National Weather Service (NWS) in support of the Hydrologic Program) are carried out as combined efforts by NWS headquarters and field personnel in cooperation with other organizations. These developments fall into two categories: hardware and software systems technology, and hydrometeorological analysis and prediction technology. Research, development, and operational implementation in progress in both of these areas are discussed. Cornerstones of an overall NWS modernization effort include implementation of state-of-the-art data acquisition systems (including the Next Generation Weather Radar) and communications and computer processing systems. The NWS Hydrologic Service will capitalize on these systems and will incorporate results from specific hydrologic projects including collection and processing of multivariate data sets, conceptual hydrologic modeling systems, integrated hydrologic modeling systems with meteorological interfaces and automatic updating of model states, and extended streamflow prediction techniques. The salient aspects of ongoing work in these areas are highlighted in this paper, providing some perspective on the future U.S. hydrologic forecasting service and its transitional period into the 1990s.

Research on forecast technology of mine gas emission based on fuzzy data mining (FDM)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Xu Chang-kai; Wang Yao-cai; Wang Jun-wei [CUMT, Xuzhou (China). School of Information and Electrical Engineering

2004-07-01

The safe production of coalmine can be further improved by forecasting the quantity of gas emission based on the real-time data and historical data which the gas monitoring system has saved. By making use of the advantages of data warehouse and data mining technology for processing large quantity of redundancy data, the method and its application of forecasting mine gas emission quantity based on FDM were studied. The constructing fuzzy resembling relation and clustering analysis were proposed, which the potential relationship inside the gas emission data may be found. The mode finds model and forecast model were presented, and the detailed approach to realize this forecast was also proposed, which have been applied to forecast the gas emission quantity efficiently.

A Maturity Analysis of Big Data Technologies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Radu BONCEA

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In recent years Big Data technologies have been developed at faster pace due to increase in demand from applications that generate and process vast amount of data. The Cloud Computing and the Internet of Things are the main drivers for developing enterprise solutions that support Business Intelligence which in turn, creates new opportunities and new business models. An enterprise can now collect data about its internal processes, process this data to gain new insights and business value and make better decisions. And this is the reason why Big Data is now seen as a vital component in any enterprise architecture. In this article the maturity of several Big Data technologies is put under analysis. For each technology there are several aspects considered, such as development status, market usage, licensing policies, availability for certifications, adoption, support for cloud computing and enterprise.

Selecting the Best Forecasting-Implied Volatility Model Using Genetic Programming

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wafa Abdelmalek

2009-01-01

Full Text Available The volatility is a crucial variable in option pricing and hedging strategies. The aim of this paper is to provide some initial evidence of the empirical relevance of genetic programming to volatility's forecasting. By using real data from S&P500 index options, the genetic programming's ability to forecast Black and Scholes-implied volatility is compared between time series samples and moneyness-time to maturity classes. Total and out-of-sample mean squared errors are used as forecasting's performance measures. Comparisons reveal that the time series model seems to be more accurate in forecasting-implied volatility than moneyness time to maturity models. Overall, results are strongly encouraging and suggest that the genetic programming approach works well in solving financial problems.

Extravehicular Activity (EVA) Technology Development Status and Forecast

Science.gov (United States)

Chullen, Cinda; Westheimer, David T.

2010-01-01

Beginning in Fiscal Year (FY) 2011, Extravehicular activity (EVA) technology development became a technology foundational domain under a new program Enabling Technology Development and Demonstration. The goal of the EVA technology effort is to further develop technologies that will be used to demonstrate a robust EVA system that has application for a variety of future missions including microgravity and surface EVA. Overall the objectives will be reduce system mass, reduce consumables and maintenance, increase EVA hardware robustness and life, increase crew member efficiency and autonomy, and enable rapid vehicle egress and ingress. Over the past several years, NASA realized a tremendous increase in EVA system development as part of the Exploration Technology Development Program and the Constellation Program. The evident demand for efficient and reliable EVA technologies, particularly regenerable technologies was apparent under these former programs and will continue to be needed as future mission opportunities arise. The technological need for EVA in space has been realized over the last several decades by the Gemini, Apollo, Skylab, Space Shuttle, and the International Space Station (ISS) programs. EVAs were critical to the success of these programs. Now with the ISS extension to 2028 in conjunction with a current forecasted need of at least eight EVAs per year, the EVA technology life and limited availability of the EMUs will become a critical issue eventually. The current Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU) has vastly served EVA demands by performing critical operations to assemble the ISS and provide repairs of satellites such as the Hubble Space Telescope. However, as the life of ISS and the vision for future mission opportunities are realized, a new EVA systems capability could be an option for the future mission applications building off of the technology development over the last several years. Besides ISS, potential mission applications include EVAs for

Post LANDSAT D Advanced Concept Evaluation (PLACE). [with emphasis on mission planning, technological forecasting, and user requirements

Science.gov (United States)

1977-01-01

An outline is given of the mission objectives and requirements, system elements, system concepts, technology requirements and forecasting, and priority analysis for LANDSAT D. User requirements and mission analysis and technological forecasting are emphasized. Mission areas considered include agriculture, range management, forestry, geology, land use, water resources, environmental quality, and disaster assessment.

Forecasting interest rates with shifting endpoints

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Van Dijk, Dick; Koopman, Siem Jan; Wel, Michel van der

2014-01-01

We consider forecasting the term structure of interest rates with the assumption that factors driving the yield curve are stationary around a slowly time-varying mean or ‘shifting endpoint’. The shifting endpoints are captured using either (i) time series methods (exponential smoothing) or (ii......) long-range survey forecasts of either interest rates or inflation and output growth, or (iii) exponentially smoothed realizations of these macro variables. Allowing for shifting endpoints in yield curve factors provides substantial and significant gains in out-of-sample predictive accuracy, relative...... to stationary and random walk benchmarks. Forecast improvements are largest for long-maturity interest rates and for long-horizon forecasts....

Enabling Dedicated, Affordable Space Access Through Aggressive Technology Maturation

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Jonathan E.; Kibbey, Timothy P.; Cobb, C. Brent; Harris, Lawanna L.

2014-01-01

A launch vehicle at the scale and price point which allows developers to take reasonable risks with high payoff propulsion and avionics hardware solutions does not exist today. Establishing this service provides a ride through the proverbial technology "valley of death" that lies between demonstration in laboratory and flight environments. NASA's NanoLaunch effort will provide the framework to mature both earth-to-orbit and on-orbit propulsion and avionics technologies while also providing affordable, dedicated access to low earth orbit for cubesat class payloads.

Forecasting the Success of Implementing Sensors Advanced Manufacturing Technology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cheng-Shih Su

2014-08-01

Full Text Available This paper is presented fuzzy preference relations approach to forecast the success of implementing sensors advanced manufacturing technology (AMT. In the manufacturing environment, performance measurement is based on different quantitative and qualitative factors. This study proposes an analytic hierarchical prediction model based on fuzzy preference relations to help the organizations become aware of the essential factors affecting the AMT implementation, forecasting the chance of successful implementing sensors AMT, as well as identifying the actions necessary before implementing sensors AMT. Then predicted success/failure values are obtained to enable organizations to decide whether to initiate sensors AMT, inhibit adoption or take remedial actions to increase the possibility of successful sensors AMT initiatives. This proposed approach is demonstrated with a real case study involving six influential factors assessed by nine evaluators solicited from a semiconductor engineering incorporation located in Taiwan.

Applying the Repertory Grid Method for Technology Forecasting: Civil Unmanned Aviation Systems for Germany

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eimecke Jörgen

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Multistage expert surveys like the Delphi method are proven concepts for technology forecasting that enable the prediction of content-related and temporal development in fields of innovation (e.g., [1, 2]. Advantages of these qualitative multistage methods are a simple and easy to understand concept while still delivering valid results [3]. Nevertheless, the literature also points out certain disadvantages especially in large-scale technology forecasts in particularly abstract fields of innovation [4]. The proposed approach highlights the usefulness of the repertory grid method as an alternative for technology forecasting and as a first step for preference measurement. The basic approach from Baier and Kohler [5] is modified in-so-far that an online survey reduces the cognitive burden for the experts and simplifies the data collection process. Advantages over alternative approaches through its simple structure and through combining qualitative and quantitative methods are shown and an adaption on an actual field of innovation – civil drones in Germany – is done. The measurement of a common terminology for all experts minimizes misunderstandings during the interview and the achievement of an inter-individual comparable level of abstraction is forced by the laddering technique [6] during the interview.

Game Maturity Model for Health Care.

Science.gov (United States)

de Boer, Jan C; Adriani, Paul; van Houwelingen, Jan Willem; Geerts, A

2016-04-01

This article introduces the Game Maturity Model for the healthcare industry as an extension to the general Game Maturity Model and describes the usage by two case studies of applied health games. The Game Maturity Model for healthcare provides a practical and value-adding method to assess existing games and to determine strategic considerations for application of applied health games. Our forecast is that within 5 years the use and development of applied games will have a role in our daily lives and the way we organize health care that will be similar to the role social media has today.

Approaches, techniques, and information technology systems in the restaurants and foodservice industry: a qualitative study in sales forecasting.

OpenAIRE

Green, Yvette N. J.; Weaver, Pamela A.

2008-01-01

This is a study of the approaches, techniques, and information technology systems utilized for restaurant sales forecasting in the full-service restaurant segment. Companies were examined using a qualitative research methods design and long interviews to gather information on approaches, techniques, and technology systems utilized in the sales forecasting process. The results of the interviews were presented along with ensuing discussion.

Innovative activity of high-technology companies as assessment and forecasting object

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. E. Sklyarov

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Innovation activities, as well as innovations, are closely related meanings, and like many others economical definitions, have a broad range of meanings. Main characteristics and attributes of innovation involves new or significantly improved product, that’s being used, or in other words, found its application, and innovative activities – activities focused on realization of innovations. In this article, innovations are mainly considered in terms of high-technology production, evidence from Russian space industry. There are 5 basic stages of lifecycle of innovative project in considered industry: initiation, development, realization, expansion, consumption. Practically, third or fourth, or even both of these stages, often missing because there is no need of them. R&D activities, or even further serial production, based on previous developments, is an innovation activity, because these activities are stages of innovative projects lifecycle itself. Then it seems legit, to draw a conclusion, that in terms of high-technology production, company’s primary activity equals innovative activity. Basic characteristics of innovative activity of high-technology companies as assessment and forecasting object involves high level of uncertainty at every stage of projects lifecycle, high dependency on funding level of this activity, and high level and erratic structure of risk. All the above mentioned, means that assessment and forecasting of innovative activity of high-technology companies, needs development of its own methodological tools for each industry.

Problems of Forecast

OpenAIRE

Kucharavy , Dmitry; De Guio , Roland

2005-01-01

International audience; The ability to foresee future technology is a key task of Innovative Design. The paper focuses on the obstacles to reliable prediction of technological evolution for the purpose of Innovative Design. First, a brief analysis of problems for existing forecasting methods is presented. The causes for the complexity of technology prediction are discussed in the context of reduction of the forecast errors. Second, using a contradiction analysis, a set of problems related to ...

A formulation of multidimensional growth models for the assessment and forecast of technology attributes

Science.gov (United States)

Danner, Travis W.

Developing technology systems requires all manner of investment---engineering talent, prototypes, test facilities, and more. Even for simple design problems the investment can be substantial; for complex technology systems, the development costs can be staggering. The profitability of a corporation in a technology-driven industry is crucially dependent on maximizing the effectiveness of research and development investment. Decision-makers charged with allocation of this investment are forced to choose between the further evolution of existing technologies and the pursuit of revolutionary technologies. At risk on the one hand is excessive investment in an evolutionary technology which has only limited availability for further improvement. On the other hand, the pursuit of a revolutionary technology may mean abandoning momentum and the potential for substantial evolutionary improvement resulting from the years of accumulated knowledge. The informed answer to this question, evolutionary or revolutionary, requires knowledge of the expected rate of improvement and the potential a technology offers for further improvement. This research is dedicated to formulating the assessment and forecasting tools necessary to acquire this knowledge. The same physical laws and principles that enable the development and improvement of specific technologies also limit the ultimate capability of those technologies. Researchers have long used this concept as the foundation for modeling technological advancement through extrapolation by analogy to biological growth models. These models are employed to depict technology development as it asymptotically approaches limits established by the fundamental principles on which the technological approach is based. This has proven an effective and accurate approach to modeling and forecasting simple single-attribute technologies. With increased system complexity and the introduction of multiple system objectives, however, the usefulness of this

Modeling timelines for translational science in cancer; the impact of technological maturation

OpenAIRE

McNamee, Laura M.; Ledley, Fred D.

2017-01-01

This work examines translational science in cancer based on theories of innovation that posit a relationship between the maturation of technologies and their capacity to generate successful products. We examined the growth of technologies associated with 138 anticancer drugs using an analytical model that identifies the point of initiation of exponential growth and the point at which growth slows as the technology becomes established. Approval of targeted and biological products corresponded ...

Forecasting Interest Rates and Inflation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Chun, Albert Lee

the best overall for short horizon forecasts of short to medium term yields and inflation. Econometric models with shrinkage perform the best over longer horizons and maturities. Aggregating over a larger set of analysts improves inflation surveys while generally degrading interest rates surveys. We...

Translational science by public biotechnology companies in the IPO "class of 2000": the impact of technological maturity.

Science.gov (United States)

McNamee, Laura; Ledley, Fred

2013-01-01

The biotechnology industry plays a central role in the translation of nascent biomedical science into both products that offer material health benefits and creating capital growth. This study examines the relationship between the maturity of technologies in a characteristic life cycle and value creation by biotechnology companies. We examined the core technology, product development pipelines, and capitalization for a cohort of biotechnology companies that completed an IPO in 2000. Each of these companies was well financed and had core technologies on the leading edge of biological science. We found that companies with the least mature technologies had significantly higher valuations at IPO, but failed to develop products based on these technologies over the ensuing decade, and created less capital growth than companies with more mature technologies at IPO. The observation that this cohort of recently public biotechnology companies was not effective in creating value from nascent science suggests the need for new, evidence-based business strategies for translational science.

Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC) Technology Maturation

Science.gov (United States)

Wong, Wayne A.; Wilson, Scott; Collins, Josh; Wilson, Kyle

2016-01-01

The Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC) development effort was initiated by NASA Glenn Research Center with contractor Sunpower, Inc., to develop high-efficiency thermal-to-electric power conversion technology for NASA Radioisotope Power Systems (RPSs). Early successful performance demonstrations led to the expansion of the project as well as adoption of the technology by the Department of Energy (DOE) and system integration contractor Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company as part of the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) flight project. The ASRG integrates a pair of ASCs to convert the heat from a pair of General Purpose Heat Source (GPHS) modules into electrical power. The expanded NASA ASC effort included development of several generations of ASC prototypes or engineering units to help prepare the ASC technology and Sunpower for flight implementation. Sunpower later had two parallel contracts allowing the last of the NASA engineering units called ASC-E3 to serve as pathfinders for the ASC-F flight convertors being built for DOE. The ASC-E3 convertors utilized the ASC-F flight specifications and were built using the ASC-F design and process documentation. Shortly after the first ASC-F pair achieved initial operation, due to budget constraints, the DOE ASRG flight development contract was terminated. NASA continues to invest in the development of Stirling RPS technology including continued production of the ASC-E3 convertors, seven of which have been delivered with one additional unit in production. Starting in fiscal year 2015, Stirling Convertor Technology Maturation has been reorganized as an element of the RPS Stirling Cycle Technology Development (SCTD) Project and long-term plans for continued Stirling technology advancement are in reformulation. This paper provides a status on the ASC project, an overview of advancements made in the design and production of the ASC at Sunpower, and a summary of acceptance tests, reliability tests, and tactical

Modelling phenolic and technological maturities of grapes by means of the multivariate relation between organoleptic and physicochemical properties.

Science.gov (United States)

Meléndez, E; Ortiz, M C; Sarabia, L A; Íñiguez, M; Puras, P

2013-01-25

The ripeness of grapes at the harvest time is one of the most important parameters for obtaining high quality red wines. Traditionally the decision of harvesting is to be taken only after analysing sugar concentration, titratable acidity and pH of the grape juice (technological maturity). However, these parameters only provide information about the pulp ripeness and overlook the real degree of skins and seeds maturities (phenolic maturity). Both maturities, technological and phenolic, are not simultaneously reached, on the contrary they tend to separate depending on several factors: grape variety, cultivar, adverse weather conditions, soil, water availability and cultural practices. Besides, this divergence is increasing as a consequence of the climate change (larger quantities of CO(2), less rain, and higher temperatures). 247 samples collected in vineyards representative of the qualified designation of origin Rioja from 2007 to 2011 have been analysed. Samples contain the four grape varieties usual in the elaboration of Rioja wines ('tempranillo', 'garnacha', 'mazuelo' and 'graciano'). The present study is the first systematic investigation on the maturity of grapes that includes the organoleptic evaluation of the degree of grapes maturity (sugars/acidity maturity, aromatic maturity of the pulp, aromatic maturity of the skins and tannins maturity) together with the values of the physicochemical parameters (probable alcohol degree, total acidity, pH, malic acid, K, total index polyphenolics, anthocyans, absorbances at 420, 520 and 620 nm, colour index and tartaric acid) determined over the same samples. A varimax rotation of the latent variables of a PLS model between the physicochemical variables and the mean of four sensory variables allows identifying both maturities. Besides, the position of the samples in the first plane defines the effect that the different factors exert on both phenolic and technological maturities. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All

Load forecasting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mak, H.

1995-01-01

Slides used in a presentation at The Power of Change Conference in Vancouver, BC in April 1995 about the changing needs for load forecasting were presented. Technological innovations and population increase were said to be the prime driving forces behind the changing needs in load forecasting. Structural changes, market place changes, electricity supply planning changes, and changes in planning objectives were other factors discussed. It was concluded that load forecasting was a form of information gathering, that provided important market intelligence

Use of computer technologies in physical education of women of the first mature age

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Julia Tomilina

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Purpose: the improvement of process of physical education of women of the first mature age by means of Pilates with use of information technologies. Material & Methods: the experience of development and deployment of computer technologies in the process of physical education of women of mature age was systematized by means of the analysis of scientific and methodical and special literature and the best pedagogical and coach's practices, which is presented in mass media. The ways of application of computer programs were revealed, and the computer program ‘’Pilates’’ was developed by means of programming in the system Visual Basic. Results: the computer program ‘’Pilates’’, which consists of directory, settlement and recreational blocks, is offered for the purpose of improvement of the process of physical education of women of the first mature age by means of Pilates and increase in their motivation to classes by physical exercises. Conclusions: it is revealed that application of the computer programs has the positive effect in practice of physical education of women of the first mature age. The computer program ‘’Pilates’’ is submitted.

Technology Maturation Plan For Aluminum Removal And Sodium Hydroxide Regeneration From Hanford Waste By Lithium Hydrotalcite Precipitation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sams, T.L.; Guillot, S.

2011-01-01

This Technology Maturation Plan schedules the development process that will bring the Lithium Hydrotalcite waste pretreatment process from its current estimated Technology Readiness Level of 3, to a level of 6. This maturation approach involves chemical and engineering research and development work, from laboratory scale to pilot scale testing, to incrementally make the process progress towards its integration in a fully qualified industrial system.

Technology Alignment and Portfolio Prioritization (TAPP): Advanced Methods in Strategic Analysis, Technology Forecasting and Long Term Planning for Human Exploration and Operations, Advanced Exploration Systems and Advanced Concepts

Science.gov (United States)

Funaro, Gregory V.; Alexander, Reginald A.

2015-01-01

The Advanced Concepts Office (ACO) at NASA, Marshall Space Flight Center is expanding its current technology assessment methodologies. ACO is developing a framework called TAPP that uses a variety of methods, such as association mining and rule learning from data mining, structure development using a Technological Innovation System (TIS), and social network modeling to measure structural relationships. The role of ACO is to 1) produce a broad spectrum of ideas and alternatives for a variety of NASA's missions, 2) determine mission architecture feasibility and appropriateness to NASA's strategic plans, and 3) define a project in enough detail to establish an initial baseline capable of meeting mission objectives ACO's role supports the decision­-making process associated with the maturation of concepts for traveling through, living in, and understanding space. ACO performs concept studies and technology assessments to determine the degree of alignment between mission objectives and new technologies. The first step in technology assessment is to identify the current technology maturity in terms of a technology readiness level (TRL). The second step is to determine the difficulty associated with advancing a technology from one state to the next state. NASA has used TRLs since 1970 and ACO formalized them in 1995. The DoD, ESA, Oil & Gas, and DoE have adopted TRLs as a means to assess technology maturity. However, "with the emergence of more complex systems and system of systems, it has been increasingly recognized that TRL assessments have limitations, especially when considering [the] integration of complex systems." When performing the second step in a technology assessment, NASA requires that an Advancement Degree of Difficulty (AD2) method be utilized. NASA has used and developed or used a variety of methods to perform this step: Expert Opinion or Delphi Approach, Value Engineering or Value Stream, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Technique for the Order of

Technology Maturity for the Habitable-zone Exoplanet Imaging Mission (HabEx) Concept

Science.gov (United States)

Morgan, Rhonda; Warfield, Keith R.; Stahl, H. Philip; Mennesson, Bertrand; Nikzad, Shouleh; nissen, joel; Balasubramanian, Kunjithapatham; Krist, John; Mawet, Dimitri; Stapelfeldt, Karl; warwick, Steve

2018-01-01

HabEx Architecture A is a 4m unobscured telescope optimized for direct imaging and spectroscopy of potentially habitable exoplanets, and also enables a wide range of general astrophysics science. The exoplanet detection and characterization drives the enabling core technologies. A hybrid starlight suppression approach of a starshade and coronagraph diversifies technology maturation risk. In this poster we assess these exoplanet-driven technologies, including elements of coronagraphs, starshades, mirrors, jitter mitigation, wavefront control, and detectors. By utilizing high technology readiness solutions where feasible, and identifying required technology development that can begin early, HabEx will be well positioned for assessment by the community in 2020 Astrophysics Decadal Survey.

An improved market penetration model for wind energy technology forecasting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lund, P.D.

1995-01-01

An improved market penetration model with application to wind energy forecasting is presented. In the model, a technology diffusion model and manufacturing learning curve are combined. Based on a 85% progress ratio that was found for European wind manufactures and on wind market statistics, an additional wind power capacity of ca 4 GW is needed in Europe to reach a 30 % price reduction. A full breakthrough to low-cost utility bulk power markets could be achieved at a 24 GW level. (author)

An improved market penetration model for wind energy technology forecasting

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lund, P D [Helsinki Univ. of Technology, Espoo (Finland). Advanced Energy Systems

1996-12-31

An improved market penetration model with application to wind energy forecasting is presented. In the model, a technology diffusion model and manufacturing learning curve are combined. Based on a 85% progress ratio that was found for European wind manufactures and on wind market statistics, an additional wind power capacity of ca 4 GW is needed in Europe to reach a 30 % price reduction. A full breakthrough to low-cost utility bulk power markets could be achieved at a 24 GW level. (author)

An improved market penetration model for wind energy technology forecasting

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lund, P.D. [Helsinki Univ. of Technology, Espoo (Finland). Advanced Energy Systems

1995-12-31

An improved market penetration model with application to wind energy forecasting is presented. In the model, a technology diffusion model and manufacturing learning curve are combined. Based on a 85% progress ratio that was found for European wind manufactures and on wind market statistics, an additional wind power capacity of ca 4 GW is needed in Europe to reach a 30 % price reduction. A full breakthrough to low-cost utility bulk power markets could be achieved at a 24 GW level. (author)

Production Costs of Alternative Transportation Fuels. Influence of Crude Oil Price and Technology Maturity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cazzola, Pierpaolo; Morrison, Geoff; Kaneko, Hiroyuki; Cuenot, Francois; Ghandi, Abbas; Fulton, Lewis

2013-07-01

This study examines the production costs of a range of transport fuels and energy carriers under varying crude oil price assumptions and technology market maturation levels. An engineering ''bottom-up'' approach is used to estimate the effect of the input cost of oil and of various technological assumptions on the finished price of these fuels. In total, the production costs of 20 fuels are examined for crude oil prices between USD 60 and USD 150 per barrel. Some fuel pathways can be competitive with oil as their production, transport and storage technology matures, and as oil price increases. Rising oil prices will offer new opportunities to switch to alternative fuels for transport, to diversify the energy mix of the transport sector, and to reduce the exposure of the whole system to price volatility and potential distuption of supply. In a time of uncertainty about the leading vehicle technology to decarbonize the transport sector, looking at the fuel cost brings key information to be considered to keep mobility affordable yet sustainable.

Conceptual core design of Advanced Recycling Reactor based on mature technologies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ikeda, Kazumi, E-mail: kazumi_ikeda@mfbr.mhi.co.jp [Mitsubishi FBR systems, Tokyo 150-0001 (Japan); Stein, Kim O., E-mail: Kim.Stein@areva.com [AREVA Federal Services, Bethesda, MD 20814 (United States); Nakazato, Wataru, E-mail: wataru_nakazato@mhi.co.jp [Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Kobe 652-8585 (Japan); Mito, Makoto, E-mail: makoto_mito@mfbr.mhi.co.jp [Mitsubishi FBR systems, Tokyo 150-0001 (Japan)

2011-06-15

Research highlights: > ARR is an oxide fueled sodium cooled reactor based on mature technologies to destruct TRU. > Flat core with thick wall cladding tubes are effective for ARR to reduce TRU CR and the void reactivity. > The ARR has TRU burning capability from 19 to 21 kg/TW{sub th}h and is sustainable in recycling. > The ARR can also accept TRU from LWR-MOX fuel and recycled TRU fuel, etc. > The ARR can transform from TRU conversion ratio of 0.56 to breeding ratio of 1.03 smoothly and safely. - Abstract: This paper presents about comprehensive investigations into Advanced Recycling Reactor (ARR) based on existing and/or mature technologies (called 'Early ARR'), aiming transuranics (TRU) burning and considering harmonization of TRU burning capability, technology readiness, economy and safety. The ARR is a 500 MW{sub e} (1180 MW{sub th}) oxide fueled sodium cooled fast reactor, which the low core height of 70 cm and the large structure volume fraction with 1.0 mm of cladding thickness to tube wall have been chosen among 14 candidate concepts to reduce the TRU conversion ratio (CR) and the void reactivity, taking technology readiness into account. As a result of nuclear calculation, the ARR has TRU burning capability from 19 to 21 kg/TW{sub th}h and is sustainable in recycling. And the ARR can accept several kinds of TRU; the LWR uranium oxide fuels, LWR-MOX used nuclear fuel, and TRU recycled in this fuel cycle and the ARR is also flexible in TRU management in ways that it can transform from TRU CR of 0.56 to breeding ratio (BR) of 1.03. In addition, it has been confirmed that the ARR core conforms to the set design requirements; the void reactivity, the maximum linear heat rate, and the shutdown margin of reactivity control system. It has been confirmed that the closed fuel cycle with the ARR plants of 180 GW{sub th} will not release TRU outside and generate more electricity by 65% compared with the present nuclear power system in the US, curbing the

NASA Environmental Control and Life Support Technology Development and Maturation for Exploration: 2015 to 2016 Overview

Science.gov (United States)

Schneider, Walter F.; Gatens, Robyn L.; Anderson, Molly S.; Broyan, James L.; MaCatangay, Ariel V.; Shull, Sarah A.; Perry, Jay L.; Toomarian, Nikzad

2016-01-01

Over the last year, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has continued to refine the understanding and prioritization of technology gaps that must be closed in order to achieve Evolvable Mars Campaign objectives and near term objectives in the cislunar proving ground. These efforts are reflected in updates to the technical area roadmaps released by NASA in 2015 and have guided technology development and maturation tasks that have been sponsored by various programs. This paper provides an overview of the refined Environmental Control and Life Support (ECLS) strategic planning, as well as a synopsis of key technology and maturation project tasks that occurred in 2014 and early 2015 to support the strategic needs. Plans for the remainder of 2015 and subsequent years are also described.

When a mature technology company pivots: A case study of Logitech

OpenAIRE

Anderson Darrell; Daniel Johnson

2016-01-01

Life cycle theory has been shown to be an important explanation of the relationship between sales and stock prices. This study explores how the technology company Logitech attempted a transition from a mature life-cycle company in computer peripherals to a growth company in the music, tablet, and gaming industries. We show that stock price correlates with accounting performance differently across the company’s life cycle.

Can Entrepreneurial Thinking Help Innovation in Established Mature Technology Corporations? An Exploratory Study in a Power Sector Multinational Firm

OpenAIRE

Weber, Thomas Karl-Heinz

2012-01-01

Just like nature, also technologies and industries, products and companies go through life cycles -- from 'birth' through maturity to 'death'. Innovativeness gives birth to new technologies and products, and innovation is written on the (business) storybook of many entrepreneurial undertakings and ventures. Those again appear habitually as starting or turning points in company and industry pedigrees. Further down the road, companies achieve maturity by managing consistently production and del...

The Need for Technology Maturity of Any Advanced Capability to Achieve Better Life Cycle Cost (LCC)

Science.gov (United States)

Robinson, John W.; Levack, Daniel J. H.; Rhodes, Russel E.; Chen, Timothy T.

2009-01-01

Programs such as space transportation systems are developed and deployed only rarely, and they have long development schedules and large development and life cycle costs (LCC). They have not historically had their LCC predicted well and have only had an effort to control the DDT&E phase of the programs. One of the factors driving the predictability, and thus control, of the LCC of a program is the maturity of the technologies incorporated in the program. If the technologies incorporated are less mature (as measured by their Technology Readiness Level - TRL), then the LCC not only increases but the degree of increase is difficult to predict. Consequently, new programs avoid incorporating technologies unless they are quite mature, generally TRL greater than or equal to 7 (system prototype demonstrated in a space environment) to allow better predictability of the DDT&E phase costs unless there is no alternative. On the other hand, technology development programs rarely develop technologies beyond TRL 6 (system/subsystem model or prototype demonstrated in a relevant environment). Currently the lack of development funds beyond TRL 6 and the major funding required for full scale development leave little or no funding available to prototype TRL 6 concepts so that hardware would be in the ready mode for safe, reliable and cost effective incorporation. The net effect is that each new program either incorporates little new technology or has longer development schedules and costs, and higher LCC, than planned. This paper presents methods to ensure that advanced technologies are incorporated into future programs while providing a greater accuracy of predicting their LCC. One method is having a dedicated organization to develop X-series vehicles or separate prototypes carried on other vehicles. The question of whether such an organization should be independent of NASA and/or have an independent funding source is discussed. Other methods are also discussed. How to make the

Foresight and Forecasts

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kilbourn, Kyle; Bay, Marie Brøndum

In predicting areas of growth, public innovation projects may rely on optimistic visions of technology still in development as a way of ensuring novelty for funding. This paper explores what happens when forecasts of robotic technology meets the practice of sterile supply in a preliminary stage...

How accurate are forecasts of costs of energy? A methodological contribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Siddons, Craig; Allan, Grant; McIntyre, Stuart

2015-01-01

Forecasts of the cost of energy are typically presented as point estimates; however forecasts are seldom accurate, which makes it important to understand the uncertainty around these point estimates. The scale of the differences between forecasts and outturns (i.e. contemporary estimates) of costs may have important implications for government decisions on the appropriate form (and level) of support, modelling energy scenarios or industry investment appraisal. This paper proposes a methodology to assess the accuracy of cost forecasts. We apply this to levelised costs of energy for different generation technologies due to the availability of comparable forecasts and contemporary estimates, however the same methodology could be applied to the components of levelised costs, such as capital costs. The estimated “forecast errors” capture the accuracy of previous forecasts and can provide objective bounds to the range around current forecasts for such costs. The results from applying this method are illustrated using publicly available data for on- and off-shore wind, Nuclear and CCGT technologies, revealing the possible scale of “forecast errors” for these technologies. - Highlights: • A methodology to assess the accuracy of forecasts of costs of energy is outlined. • Method applied to illustrative data for four electricity generation technologies. • Results give an objective basis for sensitivity analysis around point estimates.

Probabilistic Latent Semantic Analyses (PLSA in Bibliometric Analysis for Technology Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wang Zan

2007-03-01

Full Text Available Due to the availability of internet-based abstract services and patent databases, bibliometric analysis has become one of key technology forecasting approaches. Recently, latent semantic analysis (LSA has been applied to improve the accuracy in document clustering. In this paper, a new LSA method, probabilistic latent semantic analysis (PLSA which uses probabilistic methods and algebra to search latent space in the corpus is further applied in document clustering. The results show that PLSA is more accurate than LSA and the improved iteration method proposed by authors can simplify the computing process and improve the computing efficiency

The inadequacy between the photovoltaic subsidy mode and its technological maturity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Finon, D.

2008-12-01

The author criticizes the current French program which aims at developing the photovoltaic (PV) sector through the development of highly subsidized markets. He states that the high purchase tariff is not the right instrument with respect to the PV technology development stage, and that it would be better to strengthen the R and D effort, notably in the thin-layer sector. Secondly, he criticizes the French approach for its too long tariff commitment, the absence of decreasing purchase tariff over 20 years, the useless addition of other aids (tax credits, VAT lowering, etc.), the absence of tariff decrease for new installations, the absence of distinction between variously mature technologies. Finally, he states that this programme will not reach the objective of building up a French photovoltaic sector because of the global competition context. According to him, an ambitious programme of subsidies for the R and D and some targeted technologies, and in favour of French manufacturers would be a better solution

Coherence between institutions and technologies - The case of mini hydropower in Switzerland

OpenAIRE

Crettenand, Nicolas

2009-01-01

Switzerland, with the forecasted electricity gap between domestic production and demand, aims to significantly increase renewable energy sources including hydropower. Mini hydropower (below 1MW) currently has considerable unused technical potential. As a renewable energy source (RES) it can contribute to climate change mitigation. CO2-taxes or emission trading systems (ETS) for planned thermal power plants could help facilitate mini hydropower (MHP). The technology is mature, but requires ade...

Artificial intelligence in short term electric load forecasting: a state-of-the-art survey for the researcher

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Metaxiotis, K.; Kagiannas, A.; Askounis, D.; Psarras, J. [National Technical University of Athens, Zografou (Turkey). Dept. of Electrical and Computer Engineering

2003-06-01

Intelligent solutions, based on artificial intelligence (AI) technologies, to solve complicated practical problems in various sectors are becoming more and more widespread nowadays. AI-based systems are being developed and deployed worldwide in myriad applications, mainly because of their symbolic reasoning, flexibility and explanation capabilities. This paper provides an overview for the researcher of AI technologies, as well as their current use in the field of short term electric load forecasting (STELF). The history of AI in STELF is outlined, leading to a discussion of the various approaches as well as the current research directions. The paper concludes by sharing thoughts and estimations on AI future prospects in this area. This review reveals that although still regarded as a novel methodology, AI technologies are shown to have matured to the point of offering real practical benefits in many of their applications. (Author)

Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC) Technology Maturation in Preparation for Flight

Science.gov (United States)

Wong, Wayne A.; Cornell, Peggy A.

2012-01-01

The Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC) is being developed by an integrated team of Sunpower and National Aeronautics and Space Administration s (NASA s) Glenn Research Center (GRC). The ASC development, funded by NASA s Science Mission Directorate, started as a technology development effort in 2003 and has since evolved through progressive convertor builds and successful testing to demonstrate high conversion efficiency, low mass, and capability to meet long-life Radioisotope Power System (RPS) requirements. The technology has been adopted by the Department of Energy and Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company s Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG), which has been selected for potential flight demonstration on Discovery 12. This paper provides an overview of the status of ASC development including the most recent ASC-E2 convertors that have been delivered to GRC and an introduction to the ASC-E3 and ASC flight convertors that Sunpower will build next. The paper also describes the technology maturation and support tasks being conducted at GRC to support ASC and ASRG development in the areas of convertor and generator extended operation, high-temperature materials, heater head life assessment, organics, nondestructive inspection, spring fatigue testing, and other reliability verification tasks.

Review of methods for forecasting the market penetration of new technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gilshannon, S.T.; Brown, D.R.

1996-12-01

In 1993 the DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EE) initiated a program called Quality Metrics. Quality Metrics was developed to measure the costs and benefits of technologies being developed by EE R ampersand D programs. The impact of any new technology is directly related to its adoption by the market. The techniques employed to project market adoption are critical to measuring a new technology's impact. Our purpose was to review current market penetration theories and models and develop a recommended approach for evaluating the market penetration of DOE technologies. The following commonly cited innovation diffusion theories were reviewed to identify analytical approaches relevant to new energy technologies: (1) the normal noncumulative adopter distribution method, (2) the Bass Model, (3) the Mansfield-Blackman Model, (4) the Fisher-Pry Model, (5) a meta-analysis of innovation diffusion studies. Of the theories reviewed, the Bass and Mansfield-Blackman models were found most applicable to forecasting the market penetration of electricity supply technologies. Their algorithms require input estimates which characterize the technology adoption behavior of the electricity supply industry. But, inadequate work has been done to quantify the technology adoption characteristics of this industry. The following energy technology market penetration models were also reviewed: (1) DOE's Renewable Energy Penetration (REP) Model, (2) DOE's Electricity Capacity Planning Submodule of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), (3) the Assessment of Energy Technologies (ASSET) model by Regional Economic Research, Inc., (4) the Market TREK model by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). The two DOE models were developed for electricity generation technologies whereas the Regional Economic Research and EPRI models were designed for demand- side energy technology markets. Therefore, the review and evaluation focused on the DOE models

New technology for using meteorological information in forest insect pest forecast and warning systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Qin, Jiang-Lin; Yang, Xiu-Hao; Yang, Zhong-Wu; Luo, Ji-Tong; Lei, Xiu-Feng

2017-12-01

Near surface air temperature and rainfall are major weather factors affecting forest insect dynamics. The recent developments in remote sensing retrieval and geographic information system spatial analysis techniques enable the utilization of weather factors to significantly enhance forest pest forecasting and warning systems. The current study focused on building forest pest digital data structures as a platform of correlation analysis between weather conditions and forest pest dynamics for better pest forecasting and warning systems using the new technologies. The study dataset contained 3 353 425 small polygons with 174 defined attributes covering 95 counties of Guangxi province of China currently registering 292 forest pest species. Field data acquisition and information transfer systems were established with four software licences that provided 15-fold improvement compared to the systems currently used in China. Nine technical specifications were established including codes of forest districts, pest species and host tree species, and standard practices of forest pest monitoring and information management. Attributes can easily be searched using ArcGIS9.3 and/or the free QGIS2.16 software. Small polygons with pest relevant attributes are a new tool of precision farming and detailed forest insect pest management that are technologically advanced. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

Demand forecast model based on CRM

Science.gov (United States)

Cai, Yuancui; Chen, Lichao

2006-11-01

With interiorizing day by day management thought that regarding customer as the centre, forecasting customer demand becomes more and more important. In the demand forecast of customer relationship management, the traditional forecast methods have very great limitation because much uncertainty of the demand, these all require new modeling to meet the demands of development. In this paper, the notion is that forecasting the demand according to characteristics of the potential customer, then modeling by it. The model first depicts customer adopting uniform multiple indexes. Secondly, the model acquires characteristic customers on the basis of data warehouse and the technology of data mining. The last, there get the most similar characteristic customer by their comparing and forecast the demands of new customer by the most similar characteristic customer.

Verification of ECMWF and ECMWF/MACC's global and direct irradiance forecasts with respect to solar electricity production forecasts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Schroedter-Homscheidt

2017-02-01

Full Text Available The successful electricity grid integration of solar energy into day-ahead markets requires at least hourly resolved 48 h forecasts. Technologies as photovoltaics and non-concentrating solar thermal technologies make use of global horizontal irradiance (GHI forecasts, while all concentrating technologies both from the photovoltaic and the thermal sector require direct normal irradiances (DNI. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF has recently changed towards providing direct as well as global irradiances. Additionally, the MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition & Climate near-real time services provide daily analysis and forecasts of aerosol properties in preparation of the upcoming European Copernicus programme. The operational ECMWF/IFS (Integrated Forecast System forecast system will in the medium term profit from the Copernicus service aerosol forecasts. Therefore, within the MACC‑II project specific experiment runs were performed allowing for the assessment of the performance gain of these potential future capabilities. Also the potential impact of providing forecasts with hourly output resolution compared to three-hourly resolved forecasts is investigated. The inclusion of the new aerosol climatology in October 2003 improved both the GHI and DNI forecasts remarkably, while the change towards a new radiation scheme in 2007 only had minor and partly even unfavourable impacts on the performance indicators. For GHI, larger RMSE (root mean square error values are found for broken/overcast conditions than for scattered cloud fields. For DNI, the findings are opposite with larger RMSE values for scattered clouds compared to overcast/broken cloud situations. The introduction of direct irradiances as an output parameter in the operational IFS version has not resulted in a general performance improvement with respect to biases and RMSE compared to the widely used Skartveit et al. (1998 global to direct irradiance

A PACS maturity model: a systematic meta-analytic review on maturation and evolvability of PACS in the hospital enterprise.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wetering, R. van de; Batenburg, R.

2009-01-01

INTRODUCTION: With PACS and medical imaging technology maturing, the importance of organizational maturity and effective deployment of PACS in the hospital enterprise are becoming significant. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this paper is twofold. Firstly, PACS literature on maturity and evolvability in

NSF's Perspective on Space Weather Research for Building Forecasting Capabilities

Science.gov (United States)

Bisi, M. M.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Bisi, M. M.; Pulkkinen, A. A.; Webb, D. F.; Oughton, E. J.; Azeem, S. I.

2017-12-01

Space weather research at the National Science Foundation (NSF) is focused on scientific discovery and on deepening knowledge of the Sun-Geospace system. The process of maturation of knowledge base is a requirement for the development of improved space weather forecast models and for the accurate assessment of potential mitigation strategies. Progress in space weather forecasting requires advancing in-depth understanding of the underlying physical processes, developing better instrumentation and measurement techniques, and capturing the advancements in understanding in large-scale physics based models that span the entire chain of events from the Sun to the Earth. This presentation will provide an overview of current and planned programs pertaining to space weather research at NSF and discuss the recommendations of the Geospace Section portfolio review panel within the context of space weather forecasting capabilities.

Spatiotemporal drought forecasting using nonlinear models

Science.gov (United States)

Vasiliades, Lampros; Loukas, Athanasios

2010-05-01

Spatiotemporal data mining is the extraction of unknown and implicit knowledge, structures, spatiotemporal relationships, or patterns not explicitly stored in spatiotemporal databases. As one of data mining techniques, forecasting is widely used to predict the unknown future based upon the patterns hidden in the current and past data. In order to achieve spatiotemporal forecasting, some mature analysis tools, e.g., time series and spatial statistics are extended to the spatial dimension and the temporal dimension, respectively. Drought forecasting plays an important role in the planning and management of natural resources and water resource systems in a river basin. Early and timelines forecasting of a drought event can help to take proactive measures and set out drought mitigation strategies to alleviate the impacts of drought. Despite the widespread application of nonlinear mathematical models, comparative studies on spatiotemporal drought forecasting using different models are still a huge task for modellers. This study uses a promising approach, the Gamma Test (GT), to select the input variables and the training data length, so that the trial and error workload could be greatly reduced. The GT enables to quickly evaluate and estimate the best mean squared error that can be achieved by a smooth model on any unseen data for a given selection of inputs, prior to model construction. The GT is applied to forecast droughts using monthly Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) timeseries at multiple timescales in several precipitation stations at Pinios river basin in Thessaly region, Greece. Several nonlinear models have been developed efficiently, with the aid of the GT, for 1-month up to 12-month ahead forecasting. Several temporal and spatial statistical indices were considered for the performance evaluation of the models. The predicted results show reasonably good agreement with the actual data for short lead times, whereas the forecasting accuracy decreases with

Cognitive methodology for forecasting oil and gas industry using pattern-based neural information technologies

Science.gov (United States)

Gafurov, O.; Gafurov, D.; Syryamkin, V.

2018-05-01

The paper analyses a field of computer science formed at the intersection of such areas of natural science as artificial intelligence, mathematical statistics, and database theory, which is referred to as "Data Mining" (discovery of knowledge in data). The theory of neural networks is applied along with classical methods of mathematical analysis and numerical simulation. The paper describes the technique protected by the patent of the Russian Federation for the invention “A Method for Determining Location of Production Wells during the Development of Hydrocarbon Fields” [1–3] and implemented using the geoinformation system NeuroInformGeo. There are no analogues in domestic and international practice. The paper gives an example of comparing the forecast of the oil reservoir quality made by the geophysicist interpreter using standard methods and the forecast of the oil reservoir quality made using this technology. The technical result achieved shows the increase of efficiency, effectiveness, and ecological compatibility of development of mineral deposits and discovery of a new oil deposit.

Projecting technology change to improve space technology planning and systems management

Science.gov (United States)

Walk, Steven Robert

2011-04-01

Projecting technology performance evolution has been improving over the years. Reliable quantitative forecasting methods have been developed that project the growth, diffusion, and performance of technology in time, including projecting technology substitutions, saturation levels, and performance improvements. These forecasts can be applied at the early stages of space technology planning to better predict available future technology performance, assure the successful selection of technology, and improve technology systems management strategy. Often what is published as a technology forecast is simply scenario planning, usually made by extrapolating current trends into the future, with perhaps some subjective insight added. Typically, the accuracy of such predictions falls rapidly with distance in time. Quantitative technology forecasting (QTF), on the other hand, includes the study of historic data to identify one of or a combination of several recognized universal technology diffusion or substitution patterns. In the same manner that quantitative models of physical phenomena provide excellent predictions of system behavior, so do QTF models provide reliable technological performance trajectories. In practice, a quantitative technology forecast is completed to ascertain with confidence when the projected performance of a technology or system of technologies will occur. Such projections provide reliable time-referenced information when considering cost and performance trade-offs in maintaining, replacing, or migrating a technology, component, or system. This paper introduces various quantitative technology forecasting techniques and illustrates their practical application in space technology and technology systems management.

A patent survey case: how could technological forecasting help cosmetic chemists with product innovation?

Science.gov (United States)

Domicio Da Silva Souza, Ivan; Juliana Pinheiro, Bárbara; Passarini Takahashi, Vania

2012-01-01

Patents represent a free and open source of data for studying innovation and forecasting technological trends. Thus, we suggest that new discussions about the role of patent information are needed. To illustrate the relevance of this issue, we performed a survey of patents involving skin care products, which were granted by the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) between 2006 and 2010, to identify opportunities for innovation and technological trends. We quantified the use of technologies in 333 patents. We plotted a life cycle of technologies related to natural ingredients. We also determined the cross impact of the technologies identified. We observed technologies related to processes applied to cosmetics (2.2%), functional packaging and applicators (2.9%), excipients and active compounds (21.5%), and cosmetic preparations (73.5%). Further, 21.6% of the patents were related to the use of natural ingredients. Several opportunities for innovation were discussed throughout this paper, for example, the use of peptides as active compounds or intracellular carriers (only 3.9% of the technologies in cosmetic preparations). We also observed technological cross impacts that suggested a trend toward multifunctional cosmetics, among others. Patent surveys may help researchers with product innovation because they allow us to identify available and unexplored technologies and turn them into whole new concepts.

Functional dynamic factor models with application to yield curve forecasting

KAUST Repository

Hays, Spencer

2012-09-01

Accurate forecasting of zero coupon bond yields for a continuum of maturities is paramount to bond portfolio management and derivative security pricing. Yet a universal model for yield curve forecasting has been elusive, and prior attempts often resulted in a trade-off between goodness of fit and consistency with economic theory. To address this, herein we propose a novel formulation which connects the dynamic factor model (DFM) framework with concepts from functional data analysis: a DFM with functional factor loading curves. This results in a model capable of forecasting functional time series. Further, in the yield curve context we show that the model retains economic interpretation. Model estimation is achieved through an expectation- maximization algorithm, where the time series parameters and factor loading curves are simultaneously estimated in a single step. Efficient computing is implemented and a data-driven smoothing parameter is nicely incorporated. We show that our model performs very well on forecasting actual yield data compared with existing approaches, especially in regard to profit-based assessment for an innovative trading exercise. We further illustrate the viability of our model to applications outside of yield forecasting.

Succeeding in deep water by combining technology qualification and production forecasting

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hussain, A.; Oiungen, B.; Raposo, C. [Det Norske Veritas (DNV), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

2008-07-01

All the easy oil and gas is gone, and, as a result the Oil and Gas industry is continuously targeting deeper and more remote fields. The exploration and development of deep water oil and gas fields is associated with enormous costs and multiple uncertainties with regard to equipment reliability and performance. Proper risk management can be used to evaluate the impact of these uncertainties thereby helping to ensure optimal business performance of the future assets, as well as helping the decision maker target investment towards areas where the financial impact will be the greatest. This paper reviews the principles of Technology Qualification and Production Forecasting methodology, both of which are risk management solutions with a proven track record for deep water field developments. (author)

Technological forecasting a long time of the scientific-technological development of the nuclear fusion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schettert, Plinio G.; Oliveira, Wagner S.; Aquino, Afonso R.

2009-01-01

With base in the introduction in long time of the nuclear fusion inside of a system of viable energy, taking in consideration economic factors, would imply on investment in a long period. The objective of this project utilizing the method of the Delphi technique is the technological forecast a long time of the scientific-technological development of the nuclear fusion and its impact. This research project will be carried through different stages of improvement of variables. A questionnaire based on information and analysis of the literature validated for specialists in nuclear fusion becomes this project a tool in the elaboration future of a database contends variables on the theme nuclear fusion and its perspectives. The database will be composed for the answers and suggestions obtained, with exploratory and extrapolatory elements, on the theme a great number of specialists involving in the nuclear fusion area. The database is analyzed for the configuration of variables that represent elements as scientific-technological factors, economical, political, social and environmental among others. As final result of the research with the Delphi technique, different scenes obtained with the variables will be indicated by convergent factors or not on the approached perspectives. The analysis of the data will be possible through of improve of statistical analysis tools. This is the first analyzes of the answers. The questionnaire was validated with nuclear fusion specialists from the Institute of Physics of the University of Sao Paulo in Brazil and the Center of Nuclear Fusion of the Technical University of Lisbon in Portugal. (author)

Maturity Models Development in IS Research

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lasrado, Lester Allan; Vatrapu, Ravi; Andersen, Kim Normann

2015-01-01

Maturity models are widespread in IS research and in particular, IT practitioner communities. However, theoretically sound, methodologically rigorous and empirically validated maturity models are quite rare. This literature review paper focuses on the challenges faced during the development...... literature reveals that researchers have primarily focused on developing new maturity models pertaining to domain-specific problems and/or new enterprise technologies. We find rampant re-use of the design structure of widely adopted models such as Nolan’s Stage of Growth Model, Crosby’s Grid, and Capability...... Maturity Model (CMM). Only recently have there been some research efforts to standardize maturity model development. We also identify three dominant views of maturity models and provide guidelines for various approaches of constructing maturity models with a standard vocabulary. We finally propose using...

Forecasting metal prices: Do forecasters herd?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pierdzioch, C.; Rulke, J. C.; Stadtmann, G.

2013-01-01

We analyze more than 20,000 forecasts of nine metal prices at four different forecast horizons. We document that forecasts are heterogeneous and report that anti-herding appears to be a source of this heterogeneity. Forecaster anti-herding reflects strategic interactions among forecasters...

Electrical Load Survey and Forecast for a Decentralized Hybrid ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Electrical Load Survey and Forecast for a Decentralized Hybrid Power System at Elebu, Kwara State, Nigeria. ... Nigerian Journal of Technology ... The paper reports the results of electrical load demand and forecast for Elebu rural community ...

Forecasting short-term power prices in the Ontario Electricity Market (OEM) with a fuzzy logic based inference system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arciniegas, Alvaro I.; Arciniegas Rueda, Ismael E.

2008-01-01

The Ontario Electricity Market (OEM), which opened in May 2002, is relatively new and is still under change. In addition, the bidding strategies of the participants are such that the relationships between price and fundamentals are non-linear and dynamic. The lack of market maturity and high complexity hinders the use of traditional statistical methodologies (e.g., regression analysis) for price forecasting. Therefore, a flexible model is needed to achieve good forecasting in OEM. This paper uses a Takagi-Sugeno-Kang (TSK) fuzzy inference system in forecasting the one-day-ahead real-time peak price of the OEM. The forecasting results of TSK are compared with those obtained by traditional statistical and neural network based forecasting. The comparison suggests that TSK has considerable value in forecasting one-day-ahead peak price in OEM. (author)

The case for better PV forecasting

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Alet, Pierre-Jean; Efthymiou, Venizelos; Graditi, Giorgio

2016-01-01

Rising levels of PV penetration mean increasingly sophisticated forecasting technologies are needed to maintain grid stability and maximise the economic value of PV systems. The Grid Integration working group of the European Technology and Innovation Platform – Photovoltaics (ETIP PV) shares the ...

In vitro maturation of human oocytes for assisted reproduction.

Science.gov (United States)

Jurema, Marcus W; Nogueira, Daniela

2006-11-01

To describe and evaluate the current practice of in vitro maturation of oocytes for assisted reproduction. Review of the available and relevant literature regarding in vitro maturation of oocytes. In vitro maturation of human oocytes retrieved from antral ovarian follicles is an emerging procedure quickly being incorporated into the realm of assisted reproductive technologies. This new technology has several potential advantages over traditional controlled ovarian hyperstimulation for IVF, such as reduction of costs by minimizing gonadotropin and GnRH analogue use, elimination of ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome, and simplicity of protocol. In vitro maturation of oocytes for assisted reproduction in human beings still is undergoing refinement but currently is providing efficacy and safety outcome comparable to that of traditional IVF in recent selected studies. Implementing in vitro maturation into an established IVF practice is feasible and requires only a few simple adjustments. Crucial to the advancement and optimization of the technology is a better understanding of how to maximize immature oocyte developmental competence and endometrial receptivity.

A maturity model for blockchain adoption

OpenAIRE

Wang, Huaiqing; Chen, Kun; Xu, Dongming

2016-01-01

Background: The rapid development of the blockchain technology and its various applications has rendered it important to understand the guidelines for adopting it. Methods: The comparative analysis method is used to analyze different dimensions of the maturity model, which is mainly based on the commonly used capability maturity model. Results: The blockchain maturity model and its adoption process have been discussed and presented. Conclusions: This study serves as a guide to institutions to...

Criteria and model for assessing and improving information technology maturity within maintenance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kans, M; Ehsanifard, K; Moniri, A

2012-01-01

Maintenance optimization and decision-making processes have been both influenced considerably by Information Technology (IT) developments mainly by increasing data availability. The decision-making process in its turn has affected systems trustworthiness positively. Therefore, theoretically speaking it could be said that Maintenance Management Information technology (MMIT) has the potential to provide applicable solutions for many of the maintenance management problems. Nevertheless, this potential has been hardly experienced in practice because of the mismatch between the level of IT maturity in the organizations and their selected MMIT solutions. To fill this gap this paper suggests a number of criteria which are crucial in decision making for selecting a MMIT application. The criteria are formed based on previous findings utilising an extensive literature review. A model is further developed for this purpose which is also tested on a case company active in power generation in Sweden. The model proved to be helpful when taking further improvement steps for reaching high utilization of IT in maintenance.

Evaluating the Organizational Interoperability Maturity Level in ICT Research Center

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Manijeh Haghighinasab

2011-03-01

Full Text Available Interoperability refers to the ability to provide services and to accept services from other systems or devices. Collaborative enterprises face additional challenges to interoperate seamlessly within a networked organization. The major task here is to assess the maturity level of interoperating organizations. For this purpose the maturity models for enterprise were reviewed based on vendors’ reliability and advantages versus disadvantages. Interoperability maturity model was deduced from ATHENA project as European Integrated Project in 2005, this model named as EIMM was examined in Iran information and Communication Institute as a leading Telecommunication organization. 115 questionnaires were distributed between staff of 4 departments: Information Technology, Communication Technology, Security and Strategic studies regarding six areas of concern: Enterprise Modeling, Business Strategy Process, Organization and Competences, Products and Services, Systems and Technology, Legal Environment, Security and Trust at five maturity levels: Performed, Modeled , Integrated, Interoperable and Optimizing maturity. The findings showed different levels of maturity in this Institute. To achieve Interoperability level, appropriate practices are proposed for promotion to the higher levels.

GMDH-Based Semi-Supervised Feature Selection for Electricity Load Classification Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lintao Yang

2018-01-01

Full Text Available With the development of smart power grids, communication network technology and sensor technology, there has been an exponential growth in complex electricity load data. Irregular electricity load fluctuations caused by the weather and holiday factors disrupt the daily operation of the power companies. To deal with these challenges, this paper investigates a day-ahead electricity peak load interval forecasting problem. It transforms the conventional continuous forecasting problem into a novel interval forecasting problem, and then further converts the interval forecasting problem into the classification forecasting problem. In addition, an indicator system influencing the electricity load is established from three dimensions, namely the load series, calendar data, and weather data. A semi-supervised feature selection algorithm is proposed to address an electricity load classification forecasting issue based on the group method of data handling (GMDH technology. The proposed algorithm consists of three main stages: (1 training the basic classifier; (2 selectively marking the most suitable samples from the unclassified label data, and adding them to an initial training set; and (3 training the classification models on the final training set and classifying the test samples. An empirical analysis of electricity load dataset from four Chinese cities is conducted. Results show that the proposed model can address the electricity load classification forecasting problem more efficiently and effectively than the FW-Semi FS (forward semi-supervised feature selection and GMDH-U (GMDH-based semi-supervised feature selection for customer classification models.

Measuring the effectiveness of earthquake forecasting in insurance strategies

Science.gov (United States)

Mignan, A.; Muir-Wood, R.

2009-04-01

Given the difficulty of judging whether the skill of a particular methodology of earthquake forecasts is offset by the inevitable false alarms and missed predictions, it is important to find a means to weigh the successes and failures according to a common currency. Rather than judge subjectively the relative costs and benefits of predictions, we develop a simple method to determine if the use of earthquake forecasts can increase the profitability of active financial risk management strategies employed in standard insurance procedures. Three types of risk management transactions are employed: (1) insurance underwriting, (2) reinsurance purchasing and (3) investment in CAT bonds. For each case premiums are collected based on modelled technical risk costs and losses are modelled for the portfolio in force at the time of the earthquake. A set of predetermined actions follow from the announcement of any change in earthquake hazard, so that, for each earthquake forecaster, the financial performance of an active risk management strategy can be compared with the equivalent passive strategy in which no notice is taken of earthquake forecasts. Overall performance can be tracked through time to determine which strategy gives the best long term financial performance. This will be determined by whether the skill in forecasting the location and timing of a significant earthquake (where loss is avoided) is outweighed by false predictions (when no premium is collected). This methodology is to be tested in California, where catastrophe modeling is reasonably mature and where a number of researchers issue earthquake forecasts.

Investments on a Rugged Landscape: The Effect of Investor Population, Network Structure, and Complexity on Technological Change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hain, Daniel; Mas Tur, Elena

In this paper, we investigate which characteristics of technological and financial systems might be conductive for technological change. We are particularly in how the interplay between capabilities, resources and networks among investors with the complexity and maturity of technologies affect...... rates of technological change and diversity, and prevents technologies from getting stuck in the financial “valley of death”. In a next step, we introduce investor networks and allow agents to co-invest together in order to pool financial resources and get access to their forecasting capability...... in a specific technological domain. We compare which investor network structures lead to the high rates of technological change and diversity on a given technology landscape. Results from a Monte Carlo simulation indicate networked investor population to outperform the case of isolated stand-alone investors...

A new approach of proration-injection allocation for water-flooding mature oilfields

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shuyong Hu

2015-03-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a new method of injection-production allocation estimation for water-flooding mature oilfields. The suggested approach is based on logistic growth rate functions and several type-curve matching methods. Using the relationship between these equations, oil production and water injection rate as well as injection-production ratio can be easily forecasted. The calculation procedure developed and outlined in this paper requires very few production data and is easily implemented. Furthermore, an oilfield case has been analyzed. The synthetic and field cases validate the calculation procedure, so it can be accurately used in forecasting production data, and it is important to optimize the whole injection-production system.

Six rules for accurate effective forecasting.

Science.gov (United States)

Saffo, Paul

2007-01-01

The primary goal of forecasting is to identify the full range of possibilities facing a company, society, or the world at large. In this article, Saffo demythologizes the forecasting process to help executives become sophisticated and participative consumers of forecasts, rather than passive absorbers. He illustrates how to use forecasts to at once broaden understanding of possibilities and narrow the decision space within which one must exercise intuition. The events of 9/11, for example, were a much bigger surprise than they should have been. After all, airliners flown into monuments were the stuff of Tom Clancy novels in the 1990s, and everyone knew that terrorists had a very personal antipathy toward the World Trade Center. So why was 9/11 such a surprise? What can executives do to avoid being blind-sided by other such wild cards, be they radical shifts in markets or the seemingly sudden emergence of disruptive technologies? In describing what forecasters are trying to achieve, Saffo outlines six simple, commonsense rules that smart managers should observe as they embark on a voyage of discovery with professional forecasters. Map a cone of uncertainty, he advises, look for the S curve, embrace the things that don't fit, hold strong opinions weakly, look back twice as far as you look forward, and know when not to make a forecast.

Business model configuration and dynamics for technology commercialization in mature markets.

Science.gov (United States)

Flammini, Serena; Arcese, Gabriella; Lucchetti, Maria Claudia; Mortara, Letizia

2017-01-01

The food industry is a well-established and complex industry. New entrants attempting to penetrate it via the commercialization of a new technological innovation could face high uncertainty and constraints. The capability to innovate through collaboration and to identify suitable strategies and innovative business models (BMs) can be particularly important for bringing a technological innovation to this market. However, although the potential for these capabilities has been advocated, we still lack a complete understanding of how new ventures could support the technology commercialization process via the development of BMs. The paper aims to discuss these issues. To address this gap, this paper builds a conceptual framework that knits together the different bodies of extant literature (i.e. entrepreneurship, strategy and innovation) to analyze the BM innovation processes associated with the exploitation of emerging technologies; determines the suitability of the framework using data from the exploratory case study of IT IS 3D - a firm which has started to exploit 3D printing in the food industry; and improves the initial conceptual framework with the findings that emerged in the case study. From this analysis it emerged that: companies could use more than one BM at a time; hence, BM innovation processes could co-exist and be run in parallel; the facing of high uncertainty might lead firms to choose a closed and/or a familiar BM, while explorative strategies could be pursued with open BMs; significant changes in strategies during the technology commercialization process are not necessarily reflected in a radical change in the BM; and firms could deliberately adopt interim strategies and BMs as means to identify the more suitable ones to reach the market. This case study illustrates how firms could innovate the processes of their BM development to face the uncertainties linked with the entry into a mature and highly conservative industry (food).

A maturity model to assess organisational readiness for change

OpenAIRE

Zephir, Olivier; Minel, Stéphanie; Chapotot, Emilie

2011-01-01

International audience; The presented model which is developed in a European project allows project management teams to assess the organisational maturity to integrate new practices under structural or technological change. Maturity for change is defined here as workforce capability to operate effectively in transformed processes. This methodology is addressed to tackle organisational readiness to fulfil business objectives through technological and structural improvements. The tool integrate...

Particle-Reinforced Aluminum Matrix Composites (AMCs—Selected Results of an Integrated Technology, User, and Market Analysis and Forecast

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anja Schmidt

2018-02-01

Full Text Available The research and development of new materials such as particle-reinforced aluminum matrix composites (AMCs will only result in a successful innovation if these materials show significant advantages not only from a technological, but also from an economic point of view. Against this background, in the Collaborative Research Center SFB 692, the concept of an integrated technology, user, and market analysis and forecast has been developed as a means for assessing the technological and commercial potential of new materials in early life cycle stages. After briefly describing this concept, it is applied to AMCs and the potential field of manufacturing aircraft components. Results show not only technological advances, but also considerable economic potential—the latter one primarily resulting from the possible weight reduction being enabled by the increased yield strength of the new material.

An extension of the technology acceptance model for business intelligence systems: project management maturity perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mirjana Pejić Bach

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Business intelligence systems (BISs refer to wide range of technologies and applications useful for retrieving and analyzing the large amount of information with the goal to generate knowledge useful for making effective business decision. In order to investigate adoption of BISs in companies, we propose a model based on the technology acceptance model (TAM that is expanded by variables representing the concept of a project management maturity (PMM. The survey on the sample of USA companies has been conducted with the chief information officer (CIO as the main informant. Structural equations model has been developed in order to test the research model. Results indicate that TAM expanded with the notion of PMM is useful in increasing understanding of BISs adoption in companies.

House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Ruelke

2013-01-01

We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from) t......) the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time....

Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part II: Ensemble forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

2009-04-01

In part I of this study, the operational flood forecasting system in Bavaria and an approach to identify and quantify forecast uncertainty was introduced. The approach is split into the calculation of an empirical 'overall error' from archived forecasts and the calculation of an empirical 'model error' based on hydrometeorological forecast tests, where rainfall observations were used instead of forecasts. The 'model error' can especially in upstream catchments where forecast uncertainty is strongly dependent on the current predictability of the atrmosphere be superimposed on the spread of a hydrometeorological ensemble forecast. In Bavaria, two meteorological ensemble prediction systems are currently tested for operational use: the 16-member COSMO-LEPS forecast and a poor man's ensemble composed of DWD GME, DWD Cosmo-EU, NCEP GFS, Aladin-Austria, MeteoSwiss Cosmo-7. The determination of the overall forecast uncertainty is dependent on the catchment characteristics: 1. Upstream catchment with high influence of weather forecast a) A hydrological ensemble forecast is calculated using each of the meteorological forecast members as forcing. b) Corresponding to the characteristics of the meteorological ensemble forecast, each resulting forecast hydrograph can be regarded as equally likely. c) The 'model error' distribution, with parameters dependent on hydrological case and lead time, is added to each forecast timestep of each ensemble member d) For each forecast timestep, the overall (i.e. over all 'model error' distribution of each ensemble member) error distribution is calculated e) From this distribution, the uncertainty range on a desired level (here: the 10% and 90% percentile) is extracted and drawn as forecast envelope. f) As the mean or median of an ensemble forecast does not necessarily exhibit meteorologically sound temporal evolution, a single hydrological forecast termed 'lead forecast' is chosen and shown in addition to the uncertainty bounds. This can be

The value of smart artificial lift technology in mature field operations demonstrated in the Zistersdorf oilfield in Austria

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Muessig, S.; Oberndorfer, M.; Rice, D. [Rohoelaufsuchungs-AG, Wien (Austria); Soliman, K. [Montanuniversitaet Leoben (Austria)

2013-08-01

Currently, approximately 40% of world oil production comes from mature fields and the tendency is that this will increase with time. A significant portion of operational expenditures in mature oil fields is related to lifting costs including the cost of maintenance of the artificial lift equipment. In many cases additional, unnecessary, costs are incurred due to inadequate control of corrosion and sand production leading to premature failures of the equipment and thus to additional workover operations. In mature fields this can result in a significant loss of reserves when the production has to be abandoned prematurely because workover operations become uneconomic. In order to combat such losses of reserves RAG and its partners have developed fit-for-purpose technologies such as: continuous control of the liquid level in the annulus (i.e. bottom hole flowing pressure), innovative advanced sand control and longer lasting artificial lift equipment. On the basis of the 75 years old Zistersdorf oilfields the value of these developments in artificial lift technology is demonstrated. The Zistersdorf oilfields produce primarily from the compacted and fairly permeable 'Sarmat' sandstone formation which has many layers whereby the higher layers are poorly consolidated. The fields are currently producing from 33 producing wells some 6 900 m{sup 3} (Vn)/d gas and 48 t/d of oil at an average water cut of 97.1%. It will be shown that the implementation of the technologies described in combination with the in-house knowledge and the dedication of the field staff has extended considerably the mean time between failures of the equipment, reduced markedly the average yearly decline rate and thus extended the economic life expectancy of the fields and increased the ultimate recovery significantly.

House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christian Pierdzioch

2012-11-01

Full Text Available We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time.

The weather forecasting in Colombia: Science plus Art

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gonzalez Marentes, Humberto

2006-01-01

The presentation intends to show briefly and rapidly the progress weather forecasting science has undergone times until today. Undoubtedly, there has been an impressive technological advances, more data better models, better representations of the physics of the atmosphere; however for the case of the low latitude countries, there are still some problems to resolve concerning the local prediction that deserve more research and more data to be included in the models. As these limitations subsist, the subjective knowledge and the experience of the duty forecaster remain valuable. The presentation is also useful to summarize how IDEAM prepares short weather forecasts

Value of Improved Wind Power Forecasting in the Western Interconnection (Poster)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hodge, B.

2013-12-01

Wind power forecasting is a necessary and important technology for incorporating wind power into the unit commitment and dispatch process. It is expected to become increasingly important with higher renewable energy penetration rates and progress toward the smart grid. There is consensus that wind power forecasting can help utility operations with increasing wind power penetration; however, there is far from a consensus about the economic value of improved forecasts. This work explores the value of improved wind power forecasting in the Western Interconnection of the United States.

Environmental noise forecasting based on support vector machine

Science.gov (United States)

Fu, Yumei; Zan, Xinwu; Chen, Tianyi; Xiang, Shihan

2018-01-01

As an important pollution source, the noise pollution is always the researcher's focus. Especially in recent years, the noise pollution is seriously harmful to the human beings' environment, so the research about the noise pollution is a very hot spot. Some noise monitoring technologies and monitoring systems are applied in the environmental noise test, measurement and evaluation. But, the research about the environmental noise forecasting is weak. In this paper, a real-time environmental noise monitoring system is introduced briefly. This monitoring system is working in Mianyang City, Sichuan Province. It is monitoring and collecting the environmental noise about more than 20 enterprises in this district. Based on the large amount of noise data, the noise forecasting by the Support Vector Machine (SVM) is studied in detail. Compared with the time series forecasting model and the artificial neural network forecasting model, the SVM forecasting model has some advantages such as the smaller data size, the higher precision and stability. The noise forecasting results based on the SVM can provide the important and accuracy reference to the prevention and control of the environmental noise.

The intersections between TRIZ and forecasting methodology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Georgeta BARBULESCU

2010-12-01

Full Text Available The authors’ intention is to correlate the basic knowledge in using the TRIZ methodology (Theory of Inventive Problem Solving or in Russian: Teoriya Resheniya Izobretatelskikh Zadatch as a problem solving tools meant to help the decision makers to perform more significant forecasting exercises. The idea is to identify the TRIZ features and instruments (40 inventive principles, i.e. for putting in evidence the noise and signal problem, for trend identification (qualitative and quantitative tendencies and support tools in technological forecasting, to make the decision-makers able to refine and to increase the level of confidence in the forecasting results. The interest in connecting TRIZ to forecasting methodology, nowadays, relates to the massive application of TRIZ methods and techniques for engineering system development world-wide and in growing application of TRIZ’s concepts and paradigms for improvements of non-engineering systems (including the business and economic applications.

An Electrical Energy Consumption Monitoring and Forecasting System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. L. Rojas-Renteria

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Electricity consumption is currently an issue of great interest for power companies that need an as much as accurate profile for controlling the installed systems but also for designing future expansions and alterations. Detailed monitoring has proved to be valuable for both power companies and consumers. Further, as smart grid technology is bound to result to increasingly flexible rates, an accurate forecast is bound to prove valuable in the future. In this paper, a monitoring and forecasting system is investigated. The monitoring system was installed in an actual building and the recordings were used to design and evaluate the forecasting system, based on an artificial neural network. Results show that the system can provide detailed monitoring and also an accurate forecast for a building’s consumption.

Flood forecasting and uncertainty of precipitation forecasts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kobold, Mira; Suselj, Kay

2004-01-01

The timely and accurate flood forecasting is essential for the reliable flood warning. The effectiveness of flood warning is dependent on the forecast accuracy of certain physical parameters, such as the peak magnitude of the flood, its timing, location and duration. The conceptual rainfall - runoff models enable the estimation of these parameters and lead to useful operational forecasts. The accurate rainfall is the most important input into hydrological models. The input for the rainfall can be real time rain-gauges data, or weather radar data, or meteorological forecasted precipitation. The torrential nature of streams and fast runoff are characteristic for the most of the Slovenian rivers. Extensive damage is caused almost every year- by rainstorms affecting different regions of Slovenia' The lag time between rainfall and runoff is very short for Slovenian territory and on-line data are used only for now casting. Forecasted precipitations are necessary for hydrological forecast for some days ahead. ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) gives general forecast for several days ahead while more detailed precipitation data with limited area ALADIN/Sl model are available for two days ahead. There is a certain degree of uncertainty using such precipitation forecasts based on meteorological models. The variability of precipitation is very high in Slovenia and the uncertainty of ECMWF predicted precipitation is very large for Slovenian territory. ECMWF model can predict precipitation events correctly, but underestimates amount of precipitation in general The average underestimation is about 60% for Slovenian region. The predictions of limited area ALADIN/Si model up to; 48 hours ahead show greater applicability in hydrological forecasting. The hydrological models are sensitive to precipitation input. The deviation of runoff is much bigger than the rainfall deviation. Runoff to rainfall error fraction is about 1.6. If spatial and time distribution

Assessing the maturity and re-usability of NASA's Advanced Information System Technology (AIST) Projects

Science.gov (United States)

Little, M. M.; Hines, K.

2016-12-01

Considerable funding has been invested in Earth science information technology (IT) projects by NASA over the past 15 years. While many of these projects succeeded at completing their objectives, rapid improvements in technology and growth in available data could further enhance the capabilities available to the Earth science community. Independent evaluation of these projects has become more and more important. Not only do they qualify the maturity of the work, but they give potential adopters the chance to kick the tires. One approach that has been used is to task Federally Funded Research and Development Corporations (FFRDC) with reviews and paper studies. Another approach involves field testing by third parties. Over the past three years, the AIST Program has tried both. This paper will describe both approaches and lessons learned from the experiences. The audience will be asked for their suggestions as to how to qualify and value these results.

Forecasting new product diffusion using both patent citation and web search traffic.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Won Sang; Choi, Hyo Shin; Sohn, So Young

2018-01-01

Accurate demand forecasting for new technology products is a key factor in the success of a business. We propose a way to forecasting a new product's diffusion through technology diffusion and interest diffusion. Technology diffusion and interest diffusion are measured by the volume of patent citations and web search traffic, respectively. We apply the proposed method to forecast the sales of hybrid cars and industrial robots in the US market. The results show that that technology diffusion, as represented by patent citations, can explain long-term sales for hybrid cars and industrial robots. On the other hand, interest diffusion, as represented by web search traffic, can help to improve the predictability of market sales of hybrid cars in the short-term. However, interest diffusion is difficult to explain the sales of industrial robots due to the different market characteristics. Finding indicates our proposed model can relatively well explain the diffusion of consumer goods.

Net load forecasting for high renewable energy penetration grids

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaur, Amanpreet; Nonnenmacher, Lukas; Coimbra, Carlos F.M.

2016-01-01

We discuss methods for net load forecasting and their significance for operation and management of power grids with high renewable energy penetration. Net load forecasting is an enabling technology for the integration of microgrid fleets with the macrogrid. Net load represents the load that is traded between the grids (microgrid and utility grid). It is important for resource allocation and electricity market participation at the point of common coupling between the interconnected grids. We compare two inherently different approaches: additive and integrated net load forecast models. The proposed methodologies are validated on a microgrid with 33% annual renewable energy (solar) penetration. A heuristics based solar forecasting technique is proposed, achieving skill of 24.20%. The integrated solar and load forecasting model outperforms the additive model by 10.69% and the uncertainty range for the additive model is larger than the integrated model by 2.2%. Thus, for grid applications an integrated forecast model is recommended. We find that the net load forecast errors and the solar forecasting errors are cointegrated with a common stochastic drift. This is useful for future planning and modeling because the solar energy time-series allows to infer important features of the net load time-series, such as expected variability and uncertainty. - Highlights: • Net load forecasting methods for grids with renewable energy generation are discussed. • Integrated solar and load forecasting outperforms the additive model by 10.69%. • Net load forecasting reduces the uncertainty between the interconnected grids.

Demand Forecasting in the Smart Grid Paradigm: Features and Challenges

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Khodayar, Mohammad E.; Wu, Hongyu

2015-07-01

Demand forecasting faces challenges that include a large volume of data, increasing number of factors that affect the demand profile, uncertainties in the generation profile of the distributed and renewable generation resources and lack of historical data. A hierarchical demand forecasting framework can incorporate the new technologies, customer behaviors and preferences, and environmental factors.

Forecast Combinations

OpenAIRE

Timmermann, Allan G

2005-01-01

Forecast combinations have frequently been found in empirical studies to produce better forecasts on average than methods based on the ex-ante best individual forecasting model. Moreover, simple combinations that ignore correlations between forecast errors often dominate more refined combination schemes aimed at estimating the theoretically optimal combination weights. In this paper we analyse theoretically the factors that determine the advantages from combining forecasts (for example, the d...

Forecaster Behaviour and Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts

OpenAIRE

Roy Batchelor

2007-01-01

This paper documents the presence of systematic bias in the real GDP and inflation forecasts of private sector forecasters in the G7 economies in the years 1990–2005. The data come from the monthly Consensus Economics forecasting service, and bias is measured and tested for significance using parametric fixed effect panel regressions and nonparametric tests on accuracy ranks. We examine patterns across countries and forecasters to establish whether the bias reflects the inefficient use of i...

Medium-Range Forecast Skill for Extraordinary Arctic Cyclones in Summer of 2008-2016

Science.gov (United States)

Yamagami, Akio; Matsueda, Mio; Tanaka, Hiroshi L.

2018-05-01

Arctic cyclones (ACs) are a severe atmospheric phenomenon that affects the Arctic environment. This study assesses the forecast skill of five leading operational medium-range ensemble forecasts for 10 extraordinary ACs that occurred in summer during 2008-2016. Average existence probability of the predicted ACs was >0.9 at lead times of ≤3.5 days. Average central position error of the predicted ACs was less than half of the mean radius of the 10 ACs (469.1 km) at lead times of 2.5-4.5 days. Average central pressure error of the predicted ACs was 5.5-10.7 hPa at such lead times. Therefore, the operational ensemble prediction systems generally predict the position of ACs within 469.1 km 2.5-4.5 days before they mature. The forecast skill for the extraordinary ACs is lower than that for midlatitude cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere but similar to that in the Southern Hemisphere.

Preliminary Technology Maturation Plan for Immobilization of High-Level Waste in Glass Ceramics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vienna, John D.; Crum, Jarrod V.; Sevigny, Gary J.; Smith, G L.

2012-09-30

A technology maturation plan (TMP) was developed for immobilization of high-level waste (HLW) raffinate in a glass ceramics waste form using a cold-crucible induction melter (CCIM). The TMP was prepared by the following process: 1) define the reference process and boundaries of the technology being matured, 2) evaluate the technology elements and identify the critical technology elements (CTE), 3) identify the technology readiness level (TRL) of each of the CTE’s using the DOE G 413.3-4, 4) describe the development and demonstration activities required to advance the TRLs to 4 and 6 in order, and 5) prepare a preliminary plan to conduct the development and demonstration. Results of the technology readiness assessment identified five CTE’s and found relatively low TRL’s for each of them: • Mixing, sampling, and analysis of waste slurry and melter feed: TRL-1 • Feeding, melting, and pouring: TRL-1 • Glass ceramic formulation: TRL-1 • Canister cooling and crystallization: TRL-1 • Canister decontamination: TRL-4 Although the TRL’s are low for most of these CTE’s (TRL-1), the effort required to advance them to higher values. The activities required to advance the TRL’s are listed below: • Complete this TMP • Perform a preliminary engineering study • Characterize, estimate, and simulate waste to be treated • Laboratory scale glass ceramic testing • Melter and off-gas testing with simulants • Test the mixing, sampling, and analyses • Canister testing • Decontamination system testing • Issue a requirements document • Issue a risk management document • Complete preliminary design • Integrated pilot testing • Issue a waste compliance plan A preliminary schedule and budget were developed to complete these activities as summarized in the following table (assuming 2012 dollars). TRL Budget Year MSA FMP GCF CCC CD Overall $M 2012 1 1 1 1 4 1 0.3 2013 2 2 1 1 4 1 1.3 2014 2 3 1 1 4 1 1.8 2015 2 3 2 2 4 2 2.6 2016 2 3 2 2 4 2 4

Forecast combinations

OpenAIRE

Aiolfi, Marco; Capistrán, Carlos; Timmermann, Allan

2010-01-01

We consider combinations of subjective survey forecasts and model-based forecasts from linear and non-linear univariate specifications as well as multivariate factor-augmented models. Empirical results suggest that a simple equal-weighted average of survey forecasts outperform the best model-based forecasts for a majority of macroeconomic variables and forecast horizons. Additional improvements can in some cases be gained by using a simple equal-weighted average of survey and model-based fore...

A Simplified Short Term Load Forecasting Method Based on Sequential Patterns

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kouzelis, Konstantinos; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte; Mahat, Pukar

2014-01-01

Load forecasting is an essential part of a power system both for planning and daily operation purposes. As far as the latter is concerned, short term load forecasting has been broadly used at the transmission level. However, recent technological advancements and legislation have facilitated the i...... in comparison with an ARIMA model....

Recent advances in flood forecasting and flood risk assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Arduino

2005-01-01

Full Text Available Recent large floods in Europe have led to increased interest in research and development of flood forecasting systems. Some of these events have been provoked by some of the wettest rainfall periods on record which has led to speculation that such extremes are attributable in some measure to anthropogenic global warming and represent the beginning of a period of higher flood frequency. Whilst current trends in extreme event statistics will be difficult to discern, conclusively, there has been a substantial increase in the frequency of high floods in the 20th century for basins greater than 2x105 km2. There is also increasing that anthropogenic forcing of climate change may lead to an increased probability of extreme precipitation and, hence, of flooding. There is, therefore, major emphasis on the improvement of operational flood forecasting systems in Europe, with significant European Community spending on research and development on prototype forecasting systems and flood risk management projects. This Special Issue synthesises the most relevant scientific and technological results presented at the International Conference on Flood Forecasting in Europe held in Rotterdam from 3-5 March 2003. During that meeting 150 scientists, forecasters and stakeholders from four continents assembled to present their work and current operational best practice and to discuss future directions of scientific and technological efforts in flood prediction and prevention. The papers presented at the conference fall into seven themes, as follows.

Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part I: Forecast uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

2009-04-01

In Bavaria, operational flood forecasting has been established since the disastrous flood of 1999. Nowadays, forecasts based on rainfall information from about 700 raingauges and 600 rivergauges are calculated and issued for nearly 100 rivergauges. With the added experience of the 2002 and 2005 floods, awareness grew that the standard deterministic forecast, neglecting the uncertainty associated with each forecast is misleading, creating a false feeling of unambiguousness. As a consequence, a system to identify, quantify and communicate the sources and magnitude of forecast uncertainty has been developed, which will be presented in part I of this study. In this system, the use of ensemble meteorological forecasts plays a key role which will be presented in part II. Developing the system, several constraints stemming from the range of hydrological regimes and operational requirements had to be met: Firstly, operational time constraints obviate the variation of all components of the modeling chain as would be done in a full Monte Carlo simulation. Therefore, an approach was chosen where only the most relevant sources of uncertainty were dynamically considered while the others were jointly accounted for by static error distributions from offline analysis. Secondly, the dominant sources of uncertainty vary over the wide range of forecasted catchments: In alpine headwater catchments, typically of a few hundred square kilometers in size, rainfall forecast uncertainty is the key factor for forecast uncertainty, with a magnitude dynamically changing with the prevailing predictability of the atmosphere. In lowland catchments encompassing several thousands of square kilometers, forecast uncertainty in the desired range (usually up to two days) is mainly dependent on upstream gauge observation quality, routing and unpredictable human impact such as reservoir operation. The determination of forecast uncertainty comprised the following steps: a) From comparison of gauge

Tomato seeds maturity detection system based on chlorophyll fluorescence

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Cuiling; Wang, Xiu; Meng, Zhijun

2016-10-01

Chlorophyll fluorescence intensity can be used as seed maturity and quality evaluation indicator. Chlorophyll fluorescence intensity of seed coats is tested to judge the level of chlorophyll content in seeds, and further to judge the maturity and quality of seeds. This research developed a detection system of tomato seeds maturity based on chlorophyll fluorescence spectrum technology, the system included an excitation light source unit, a fluorescent signal acquisition unit and a data processing unit. The excitation light source unit consisted of two high power LEDs, two radiators and two constant current power supplies, and it was designed to excite chlorophyll fluorescence of tomato seeds. The fluorescent signal acquisition unit was made up of a fluorescence spectrometer, an optical fiber, an optical fiber scaffolds and a narrowband filter. The data processing unit mainly included a computer. Tomato fruits of green ripe stage, discoloration stage, firm ripe stage and full ripe stage were harvested, and their seeds were collected directly. In this research, the developed tomato seeds maturity testing system was used to collect fluorescence spectrums of tomato seeds of different maturities. Principal component analysis (PCA) method was utilized to reduce the dimension of spectral data and extract principal components, and PCA was combined with linear discriminant analysis (LDA) to establish discriminant model of tomato seeds maturity, the discriminant accuracy was greater than 90%. Research results show that using chlorophyll fluorescence spectrum technology is feasible for seeds maturity detection, and the developed tomato seeds maturity testing system has high detection accuracy.

Short-term wind power combined forecasting based on error forecast correction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liang, Zhengtang; Liang, Jun; Wang, Chengfu; Dong, Xiaoming; Miao, Xiaofeng

2016-01-01

Highlights: • The correlation relationships of short-term wind power forecast errors are studied. • The correlation analysis method of the multi-step forecast errors is proposed. • A strategy selecting the input variables for the error forecast models is proposed. • Several novel combined models based on error forecast correction are proposed. • The combined models have improved the short-term wind power forecasting accuracy. - Abstract: With the increasing contribution of wind power to electric power grids, accurate forecasting of short-term wind power has become particularly valuable for wind farm operators, utility operators and customers. The aim of this study is to investigate the interdependence structure of errors in short-term wind power forecasting that is crucial for building error forecast models with regression learning algorithms to correct predictions and improve final forecasting accuracy. In this paper, several novel short-term wind power combined forecasting models based on error forecast correction are proposed in the one-step ahead, continuous and discontinuous multi-step ahead forecasting modes. First, the correlation relationships of forecast errors of the autoregressive model, the persistence method and the support vector machine model in various forecasting modes have been investigated to determine whether the error forecast models can be established by regression learning algorithms. Second, according to the results of the correlation analysis, the range of input variables is defined and an efficient strategy for selecting the input variables for the error forecast models is proposed. Finally, several combined forecasting models are proposed, in which the error forecast models are based on support vector machine/extreme learning machine, and correct the short-term wind power forecast values. The data collected from a wind farm in Hebei Province, China, are selected as a case study to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed

Fuel cycle forecasting - there are forecasts and there are forecasts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Puechl, K.H.

1975-01-01

The FORECAST-NUCLEAR computer program described recognizes that forecasts are made to answer a variety of questions and, therefore, that no single forecast is universally appropriate. Also, it recognizes that no two individuals will completely agree as to the input data that are appropriate for obtaining an answer to even a single simple question. Accordingly, the program was written from a utilitarian standpoint: it allows working with multiple projections; data inputting is simple to allow game-playing; computation time is short to minimize the cost of 'what if' assessements; and detail is internally carried to allow meaningful analysis. (author)

Fuel cycle forecasting - there are forecasts and there are forecasts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Puechl, K H

1975-12-01

The FORECAST-NUCLEAR computer program described recognizes that forecasts are made to answer a variety of questions and, therefore, that no single forecast is universally appropriate. Also, it recognizes that no two individuals will completely agree as to the input data that are appropriate for obtaining an answer to even a single simple question. Accordingly, the program was written from a utilitarian standpoint: it allows working with multiple projections; data inputting is simple to allow game-playing; computation time is short to minimize the cost of 'what if' assessements; and detail is internally carried to allow meaningful analysis.

Assessing the Effects of Climate Variability on Orange Yield in Florida to Reduce Production Forecast Errors

Science.gov (United States)

Concha Larrauri, P.

2015-12-01

Orange production in Florida has experienced a decline over the past decade. Hurricanes in 2004 and 2005 greatly affected production, almost to the same degree as strong freezes that occurred in the 1980's. The spread of the citrus greening disease after the hurricanes has also contributed to a reduction in orange production in Florida. The occurrence of hurricanes and diseases cannot easily be predicted but the additional effects of climate on orange yield can be studied and incorporated into existing production forecasts that are based on physical surveys, such as the October Citrus forecast issued every year by the USDA. Specific climate variables ocurring before and after the October forecast is issued can have impacts on flowering, orange drop rates, growth, and maturation, and can contribute to the forecast error. Here we present a methodology to incorporate local climate variables to predict the USDA's orange production forecast error, and we study the local effects of climate on yield in different counties in Florida. This information can aid farmers to gain an insight on what is to be expected during the orange production cycle, and can help supply chain managers to better plan their strategy.

Flood Forecasting Based on TIGGE Precipitation Ensemble Forecast

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jinyin Ye

2016-01-01

Full Text Available TIGGE (THORPEX International Grand Global Ensemble was a major part of the THORPEX (Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment. It integrates ensemble precipitation products from all the major forecast centers in the world and provides systematic evaluation on the multimodel ensemble prediction system. Development of meteorologic-hydrologic coupled flood forecasting model and early warning model based on the TIGGE precipitation ensemble forecast can provide flood probability forecast, extend the lead time of the flood forecast, and gain more time for decision-makers to make the right decision. In this study, precipitation ensemble forecast products from ECMWF, NCEP, and CMA are used to drive distributed hydrologic model TOPX. We focus on Yi River catchment and aim to build a flood forecast and early warning system. The results show that the meteorologic-hydrologic coupled model can satisfactorily predict the flow-process of four flood events. The predicted occurrence time of peak discharges is close to the observations. However, the magnitude of the peak discharges is significantly different due to various performances of the ensemble prediction systems. The coupled forecasting model can accurately predict occurrence of the peak time and the corresponding risk probability of peak discharge based on the probability distribution of peak time and flood warning, which can provide users a strong theoretical foundation and valuable information as a promising new approach.

Logical design of a decision support system to forecast technology, prices and costs for the national communications system

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, K. A.; Partridge, E. C., III

1984-09-01

Originally envisioned as a means to integrate the many systems found throughout the government, the general mission of the NCS continues to be to ensure the survivability of communications during and subsequent to any national emergency. In order to accomplish this mission the NCS is an arrangement of heterogeneous telecommunications systems which are provided by their sponsor Federal agencies. The physical components of Federal telecommunications systems and networks include telephone and digital data switching facilities and primary common user communications centers; Special purpose local delivery message switching and exchange facilities; Government owned or leased radio systems; Technical control facilities which are under exclusive control of a government agency. This thesis describes the logical design of a proposed decision support system for use by the National Communications System in forecasting technology, prices, and costs. It is general in nature and only includes those forecasting models which are suitable for computer implementation. Because it is a logical design it can be coded and applied in many different hardware and/or software configurations.

Forecasting Housing Approvals in Australia: Do Forecasters Herd?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Rülke

2012-01-01

Price trends in housing markets may reflect herding of market participants. A natural question is whether such herding, to the extent that it occurred, reflects herding in forecasts of professional forecasters. Using more than 6,000 forecasts of housing approvals for Australia, we did not find...

Forecasting freight flows

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lyk-Jensen, Stéphanie

2011-01-01

Trade patterns and transport markets are changing as a result of the growth and globalization of international trade, and forecasting future freight flow has to rely on trade forecasts. Forecasting freight flows is critical for matching infrastructure supply to demand and for assessing investment...... constitute a valuable input to freight models for forecasting future capacity problems.......Trade patterns and transport markets are changing as a result of the growth and globalization of international trade, and forecasting future freight flow has to rely on trade forecasts. Forecasting freight flows is critical for matching infrastructure supply to demand and for assessing investment...

Robust forecast comparison

OpenAIRE

Jin, Sainan; Corradi, Valentina; Swanson, Norman

2015-01-01

Forecast accuracy is typically measured in terms of a given loss function. However, as a consequence of the use of misspecified models in multiple model comparisons, relative forecast rankings are loss function dependent. This paper addresses this issue by using a novel criterion for forecast evaluation which is based on the entire distribution of forecast errors. We introduce the concepts of general-loss (GL) forecast superiority and convex-loss (CL) forecast superiority, and we establish a ...

Advances in electric power and energy systems load and price forecasting

CERN Document Server

2017-01-01

A comprehensive review of state-of-the-art approaches to power systems forecasting from the most respected names in the field, internationally. Advances in Electric Power and Energy Systems is the first book devoted exclusively to a subject of increasing urgency to power systems planning and operations. Written for practicing engineers, researchers, and post-grads concerned with power systems planning and forecasting, this book brings together contributions from many of the world’s foremost names in the field who address a range of critical issues, from forecasting power system load to power system pricing to post-storm service restoration times, river flow forecasting, and more. In a time of ever-increasing energy demands, mounting concerns over the environmental impacts of power generation, and the emergence of new, smart-grid technologies, electricity price forecasting has assumed a prominent role within both the academic and industrial ar nas. Short-run forecasting of electricity prices has become nece...

Technology of making healthy and correction of build of men of the first mature age

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stroganov S.V.

2010-07-01

Full Text Available Directions of search of ways of making healthy of population of mature age are considered. In an experiment 30 men took part 21-35 years. The men of experimental group conducted training on the basis of 4th of the monthly program of correction and making healthy. There was statistically meaningful divergence in the capacity of men of experimental group by comparison to the men of control group. Also in the subjective estimation of own build, feel for a day, at the end of workweek and after training. Employment on the developed technology induced the men of experimental group a greater measure to give up harmful habits.

A hybrid approach for probabilistic forecasting of electricity price

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wan, Can; Xu, Zhao; Wang, Yelei

2014-01-01

to the nonstationarities involved in market clearing prices (MCPs), it is rather difficult to accurately predict MCPs in advance. The challenge is getting intensified as more and more renewable energy and other new technologies emerged in smart grids. Therefore transformation from traditional point forecasts...... electricity price forecasting is proposed in this paper. The effectiveness of the proposed hybrid method has been validated through comprehensive tests using real price data from Australian electricity market.......The electricity market plays a key role in realizing the economic prophecy of smart grids. Accurate and reliable electricity market price forecasting is essential to facilitate various decision making activities of market participants in the future smart grid environment. However, due...

Effect of maturity stages, variety and storage environment on sugar ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This study clearly demonstrated the importance of integrated agro-technology of combining cultivar, maturity stage and storage environment in shelf life improvement of tomato by reducing the rate of ripening and utilization of sugar, reducing water loss and maintaining marketability. Key words: Tomato, maturity stage, ...

A High Precision Artificial Neural Networks Model for Short-Term Energy Load Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ping-Huan Kuo

2018-01-01

Full Text Available One of the most important research topics in smart grid technology is load forecasting, because accuracy of load forecasting highly influences reliability of the smart grid systems. In the past, load forecasting was obtained by traditional analysis techniques such as time series analysis and linear regression. Since the load forecast focuses on aggregated electricity consumption patterns, researchers have recently integrated deep learning approaches with machine learning techniques. In this study, an accurate deep neural network algorithm for short-term load forecasting (STLF is introduced. The forecasting performance of proposed algorithm is compared with performances of five artificial intelligence algorithms that are commonly used in load forecasting. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE and Cumulative Variation of Root Mean Square Error (CV-RMSE are used as accuracy evaluation indexes. The experiment results show that MAPE and CV-RMSE of proposed algorithm are 9.77% and 11.66%, respectively, displaying very high forecasting accuracy.

Forecasting Skill

Science.gov (United States)

1981-01-01

for the third and fourth day precipitation forecasts. A marked improvement was shown for the consensus 24 hour precipitation forecast, and small... Zuckerberg (1980) found a small long term skill increase in forecasts of heavy snow events for nine eastern cities. Other National Weather Service...and maximum temperature) are each awarded marks 2, 1, or 0 according to whether the forecast is correct, 8 - *- -**■*- ———"—- - -■ t0m 1 MM—IB I

Evaluating information in multiple horizon forecasts. The DOE's energy price forecasts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sanders, Dwight R.; Manfredo, Mark R.; Boris, Keith

2009-01-01

The United States Department of Energy's (DOE) quarterly price forecasts for energy commodities are examined to determine the incremental information provided at the one-through four-quarter forecast horizons. A direct test for determining information content at alternative forecast horizons, developed by Vuchelen and Gutierrez [Vuchelen, J. and Gutierrez, M.-I. 'A Direct Test of the Information Content of the OECD Growth Forecasts.' International Journal of Forecasting. 21(2005):103-117.], is used. The results suggest that the DOE's price forecasts for crude oil, gasoline, and diesel fuel do indeed provide incremental information out to three-quarters ahead, while natural gas and electricity forecasts are informative out to the four-quarter horizon. In contrast, the DOE's coal price forecasts at two-, three-, and four-quarters ahead provide no incremental information beyond that provided for the one-quarter horizon. Recommendations of how to use these results for making forecast adjustments is also provided. (author)

Market penetration of new energy technologies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Packey, D.J.

1993-02-01

This report examines the characteristics, advantages, disadvantages, and, for some, the mathematical formulas of forecasting methods that can be used to forecast the market penetration of renewable energy technologies. Among the methods studied are subjective estimation, market surveys, historical analogy models, cost models, diffusion models, time-series models, and econometric models. Some of these forecasting methods are more effective than others at different developmental stages of new technologies.

Increasing the temporal resolution of direct normal solar irradiance forecasted series

Science.gov (United States)

Fernández-Peruchena, Carlos M.; Gastón, Martin; Schroedter-Homscheidt, Marion; Marco, Isabel Martínez; Casado-Rubio, José L.; García-Moya, José Antonio

2017-06-01

A detailed knowledge of the solar resource is a critical point in the design and control of Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) plants. In particular, accurate forecasting of solar irradiance is essential for the efficient operation of solar thermal power plants, the management of energy markets, and the widespread implementation of this technology. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are commonly used for solar radiation forecasting. In the ECMWF deterministic forecasting system, all forecast parameters are commercially available worldwide at 3-hourly intervals. Unfortunately, as Direct Normal solar Irradiance (DNI) exhibits a great variability due to the dynamic effects of passing clouds, 3-h time resolution is insufficient for accurate simulations of CSP plants due to their nonlinear response to DNI, governed by various thermal inertias due to their complex response characteristics. DNI series of hourly or sub-hourly frequency resolution are normally used for an accurate modeling and analysis of transient processes in CSP technologies. In this context, the objective of this study is to propose a methodology for generating synthetic DNI time series at 1-h (or higher) temporal resolution from 3-h DNI series. The methodology is based upon patterns as being defined with help of the clear-sky envelope approach together with a forecast of maximum DNI value, and it has been validated with high quality measured DNI data.

A GM (1, 1 Markov Chain-Based Aeroengine Performance Degradation Forecast Approach Using Exhaust Gas Temperature

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ning-bo Zhao

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Performance degradation forecast technology for quantitatively assessing degradation states of aeroengine using exhaust gas temperature is an important technology in the aeroengine health management. In this paper, a GM (1, 1 Markov chain-based approach is introduced to forecast exhaust gas temperature by taking the advantages of GM (1, 1 model in time series and the advantages of Markov chain model in dealing with highly nonlinear and stochastic data caused by uncertain factors. In this approach, firstly, the GM (1, 1 model is used to forecast the trend by using limited data samples. Then, Markov chain model is integrated into GM (1, 1 model in order to enhance the forecast performance, which can solve the influence of random fluctuation data on forecasting accuracy and achieving an accurate estimate of the nonlinear forecast. As an example, the historical monitoring data of exhaust gas temperature from CFM56 aeroengine of China Southern is used to verify the forecast performance of the GM (1, 1 Markov chain model. The results show that the GM (1, 1 Markov chain model is able to forecast exhaust gas temperature accurately, which can effectively reflect the random fluctuation characteristics of exhaust gas temperature changes over time.

National Forecast Charts

Science.gov (United States)

code. Press enter or select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" or Prediction Center on Twitter NCEP Quarterly Newsletter WPC Home Analyses and Forecasts National Forecast to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services. National Forecast Charts

Solar Storm GIC Forecasting: Solar Shield Extension Development of the End-User Forecasting System Requirements

Science.gov (United States)

Pulkkinen, A.; Mahmood, S.; Ngwira, C.; Balch, C.; Lordan, R.; Fugate, D.; Jacobs, W.; Honkonen, I.

2015-01-01

A NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Heliophysics Science Division-led team that includes NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, the Catholic University of America, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), and Electric Research and Management, Inc., recently partnered with the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate (S&T) to better understand the impact of Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GIC) on the electric power industry. This effort builds on a previous NASA-sponsored Applied Sciences Program for predicting GIC, known as Solar Shield. The focus of the new DHS S&T funded effort is to revise and extend the existing Solar Shield system to enhance its forecasting capability and provide tailored, timely, actionable information for electric utility decision makers. To enhance the forecasting capabilities of the new Solar Shield, a key undertaking is to extend the prediction system coverage across Contiguous United States (CONUS), as the previous version was only applicable to high latitudes. The team also leverages the latest enhancements in space weather modeling capacity residing at Community Coordinated Modeling Center to increase the Technological Readiness Level, or Applications Readiness Level of the system http://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/files/ExpandedARLDefinitions4813.pdf.

Towards Energy Efficiency: Forecasting Indoor Temperature via Multivariate Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Juan Pardo

2013-09-01

Full Text Available The small medium large system (SMLsystem is a house built at the Universidad CEU Cardenal Herrera (CEU-UCH for participation in the Solar Decathlon 2013 competition. Several technologies have been integrated to reduce power consumption. One of these is a forecasting system based on artificial neural networks (ANNs, which is able to predict indoor temperature in the near future using captured data by a complex monitoring system as the input. A study of the impact on forecasting performance of different covariate combinations is presented in this paper. Additionally, a comparison of ANNs with the standard statistical forecasting methods is shown. The research in this paper has been focused on forecasting the indoor temperature of a house, as it is directly related to HVAC—heating, ventilation and air conditioning—system consumption. HVAC systems at the SMLsystem house represent 53:89% of the overall power consumption. The energy used to maintain temperature was measured to be 30%–38:9% of the energy needed to lower it. Hence, these forecasting measures allow the house to adapt itself to future temperature conditions by using home automation in an energy-efficient manner. Experimental results show a high forecasting accuracy and therefore, they might be used to efficiently control an HVAC system.

Benefits of seasonal forecasts of crop yields

Science.gov (United States)

Sakurai, G.; Okada, M.; Nishimori, M.; Yokozawa, M.

2017-12-01

Major factors behind recent fluctuations in food prices include increased biofuel production and oil price fluctuations. In addition, several extreme climate events that reduced worldwide food production coincided with upward spikes in food prices. The stabilization of crop yields is one of the most important tasks to stabilize food prices and thereby enhance food security. Recent development of technologies related to crop modeling and seasonal weather forecasting has made it possible to forecast future crop yields for maize and soybean. However, the effective use of these technologies remains limited. Here we present the potential benefits of seasonal crop-yield forecasts on a global scale for choice of planting day. For this purpose, we used a model (PRYSBI-2) that can well replicate past crop yields both for maize and soybean. This model system uses a Bayesian statistical approach to estimate the parameters of a basic process-based model of crop growth. The spatial variability of model parameters was considered by estimating the posterior distribution of the parameters from historical yield data by using the Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method with a resolution of 1.125° × 1.125°. The posterior distributions of model parameters were estimated for each spatial grid with 30 000 MCMC steps of 10 chains each. By using this model and the estimated parameter distributions, we were able to estimate not only crop yield but also levels of associated uncertainty. We found that the global average crop yield increased about 30% as the result of the optimal selection of planting day and that the seasonal forecast of crop yield had a large benefit in and near the eastern part of Brazil and India for maize and the northern area of China for soybean. In these countries, the effects of El Niño and Indian Ocean dipole are large. The results highlight the importance of developing a system to forecast global crop yields.

Improving wave forecasting by integrating ensemble modelling and machine learning

Science.gov (United States)

O'Donncha, F.; Zhang, Y.; James, S. C.

2017-12-01

Modern smart-grid networks use technologies to instantly relay information on supply and demand to support effective decision making. Integration of renewable-energy resources with these systems demands accurate forecasting of energy production (and demand) capacities. For wave-energy converters, this requires wave-condition forecasting to enable estimates of energy production. Current operational wave forecasting systems exhibit substantial errors with wave-height RMSEs of 40 to 60 cm being typical, which limits the reliability of energy-generation predictions thereby impeding integration with the distribution grid. In this study, we integrate physics-based models with statistical learning aggregation techniques that combine forecasts from multiple, independent models into a single "best-estimate" prediction of the true state. The Simulating Waves Nearshore physics-based model is used to compute wind- and currents-augmented waves in the Monterey Bay area. Ensembles are developed based on multiple simulations perturbing input data (wave characteristics supplied at the model boundaries and winds) to the model. A learning-aggregation technique uses past observations and past model forecasts to calculate a weight for each model. The aggregated forecasts are compared to observation data to quantify the performance of the model ensemble and aggregation techniques. The appropriately weighted ensemble model outperforms an individual ensemble member with regard to forecasting wave conditions.

Artificial Intelligence as a Business Forecasting and Error Handling Tool

OpenAIRE

Md. Tabrez Quasim; Rupak Chattopadhyay

2015-01-01

 Any business enterprise must rely a lot on how well it can predict the future happenings. To cope up with the modern global customer demand, technological challenges, market competitions etc., any organization is compelled to foresee the future having maximum impact and least chances of errors. The traditional forecasting approaches have some limitations. That is why the business world is adopting the modern Artificial Intelligence based forecasting techniques. This paper has tried to presen...

Probabilistic Price Forecasting for Day-Ahead and Intraday Markets: Beyond the Statistical Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

José R. Andrade

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Forecasting the hourly spot price of day-ahead and intraday markets is particularly challenging in electric power systems characterized by high installed capacity of renewable energy technologies. In particular, periods with low and high price levels are difficult to predict due to a limited number of representative cases in the historical dataset, which leads to forecast bias problems and wide forecast intervals. Moreover, these markets also require the inclusion of multiple explanatory variables, which increases the complexity of the model without guaranteeing a forecasting skill improvement. This paper explores information from daily futures contract trading and forecast of the daily average spot price to correct point and probabilistic forecasting bias. It also shows that an adequate choice of explanatory variables and use of simple models like linear quantile regression can lead to highly accurate spot price point and probabilistic forecasts. In terms of point forecast, the mean absolute error was 3.03 €/MWh for day-ahead market and a maximum value of 2.53 €/MWh was obtained for intraday session 6. The probabilistic forecast results show sharp forecast intervals and deviations from perfect calibration below 7% for all market sessions.

Forecasting telecommunication new service demand by analogy method and combined forecast

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lin Feng-Jenq

2005-01-01

Full Text Available In the modeling forecast field, we are usually faced with the more difficult problems of forecasting market demand for a new service or product. A new service or product is defined as that there is absence of historical data in this new market. We hardly use models to execute the forecasting work directly. In the Taiwan telecommunication industry, after liberalization in 1996, there are many new services opened continually. For optimal investment, it is necessary that the operators, who have been granted the concessions and licenses, forecast this new service within their planning process. Though there are some methods to solve or avoid this predicament, in this paper, we will propose one forecasting procedure that integrates the concept of analogy method and the idea of combined forecast to generate new service forecast. In view of the above, the first half of this paper describes the procedure of analogy method and the approach of combined forecast, and the second half provides the case of forecasting low-tier phone demand in Taiwan to illustrate this procedure's feasibility.

Exploring the interactions between forecast accuracy, risk perception and perceived forecast reliability in reservoir operator's decision to use forecast

Science.gov (United States)

Shafiee-Jood, M.; Cai, X.

2017-12-01

Advances in streamflow forecasts at different time scales offer a promise for proactive flood management and improved risk management. Despite the huge potential, previous studies have found that water resources managers are often not willing to incorporate streamflow forecasts information in decisions making, particularly in risky situations. While low accuracy of forecasts information is often cited as the main reason, some studies have found that implementation of streamflow forecasts sometimes is impeded by institutional obstacles and behavioral factors (e.g., risk perception). In fact, a seminal study by O'Connor et al. (2005) found that risk perception is the strongest determinant of forecast use while managers' perception about forecast reliability is not significant. In this study, we aim to address this issue again. However, instead of using survey data and regression analysis, we develop a theoretical framework to assess the user-perceived value of streamflow forecasts. The framework includes a novel behavioral component which incorporates both risk perception and perceived forecast reliability. The framework is then used in a hypothetical problem where reservoir operator should react to probabilistic flood forecasts with different reliabilities. The framework will allow us to explore the interactions among risk perception and perceived forecast reliability, and among the behavioral components and information accuracy. The findings will provide insights to improve the usability of flood forecasts information through better communication and education.

Forecasting and management of technology

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Roper, A. T

2011-01-01

... what the authors see as the innovations to technology management in the last 17 years: the Internet; the greater focus on group decision-making including process management and mechanism design; and desktop software that has transformed the analytical capabilities of technology managers"--Provided by publisher.

Waste Information Management System with Integrated Transportation Forecast Data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Upadhyay, H.; Quintero, W.; Shoffner, P.; Lagos, L.

2009-01-01

The Waste Information Management System with Integrated Transportation Forecast Data was developed to support the Department of Energy (DOE) mandated accelerated cleanup program. The schedule compression required close coordination and a comprehensive review and prioritization of the barriers that impeded treatment and disposition of the waste streams at each site. Many issues related to site waste treatment and disposal were potential critical path issues under the accelerated schedules. In order to facilitate accelerated cleanup initiatives, waste managers at DOE field sites and at DOE Headquarters in Washington, D.C., needed timely waste forecast and transportation information regarding the volumes and types of waste that would be generated by the DOE sites over the next 40 years. Each local DOE site has historically collected, organized, and displayed site waste forecast information in separate and unique systems. However, waste and shipment information from all sites needed a common application to allow interested parties to understand and view the complete complex-wide picture. The Waste Information Management System with Integrated Transportation Forecast Data allows identification of total forecasted waste volumes, material classes, disposition sites, choke points, technological or regulatory barriers to treatment and disposal, along with forecasted waste transportation information by rail, truck and inter-modal shipments. The Applied Research Center (ARC) at Florida International University (FIU) in Miami, Florida, has deployed the web-based forecast and transportation system and is responsible for updating the waste forecast and transportation data on a regular basis to ensure the long-term viability and value of this system. (authors)

The Santos Basin Ocean Observing System: From R&D to Operational Regional Forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Da Rocha Fragoso, M.; Moore, A. M.; dos Santos, F. A.; Marques Da Cruz, L.; Carvalho, G. V.; Soares, F.

2016-02-01

Santos Basin is located on the Southwestern Brazilian Ocean Basin and comprises the main offshore oil reserves of Brazil. The exploration and production activities on its ocean are growing in accelerated pace, which means that oil spill contingency and search & rescue operations are likely to be more frequent. Therefore, ocean current reliable nowcasts and forecasts has become even more important for this region. The Santos Basin Ocean Observing System was designed as an R&D project and its main objective was to establish and maintain a systematic oceanographic data collection for this region in order to study its ocean dynamics and improve regional ocean forecast through data assimilation. In the first three years of the project surface drifters, profiling floats and gliders were deployed to measure and monitor mainly the Brazil Current Western Boundary System, a highly unstable baroclinic current system, that present several meanders and mesoscale eddies activities. Throughout the development of the project, the team involved was able to learn how to operate the equipment, treat the collected data and use it to assimilate on the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). After performing a one-year 4DVAR assimilation cycle (Fragoso et al., 2015) in which the forecasting skill was assessed, the system was considered mature enough to start producing ocean circulation forecasts for Santos Basin. It is the first time in Brazil that a regional ocean model using a 4DVAR data assimilation scheme was used to produce high resolution operational ocean current forecasts. This paper describes all the components of this forecasting system, its main results and discoveries with special focus on the Brazil Current System Transport and mesocale eddies dynamics and statistics.

Correlation between dental maturity and cervical vertebral maturity.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Jianwei; Hu, Haikun; Guo, Jing; Liu, Zeping; Liu, Renkai; Li, Fan; Zou, Shujuan

2010-12-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the association between dental and skeletal maturity. Digital panoramic radiographs and lateral skull cephalograms of 302 patients (134 boys and 168 girls, ranging from 8 to 16 years of age) were examined. Dental maturity was assessed by calcification stages of the mandibular canines, first and second premolars, and second molars, whereas skeletal maturity was estimated by the cervical vertebral maturation (CVM) stages. The Spearman rank-order correlation coefficient was used to measure the association between CVM stage and dental calcification stage of individual teeth. The mean chronologic age of girls was significantly lower than that of boys in each CVM stage. The Spearman rank-order correlation coefficients between dental maturity and cervical vertebral maturity ranged from 0.391 to 0.582 for girls and from 0.464 to 0.496 for boys (P cervical vertebral maturation stage. The development of the mandibular second molar in females and that of the mandibular canine in males had the strongest correlations with cervical vertebral maturity. Therefore, it is practical to consider the relationship between dental and skeletal maturity when planning orthodontic treatment. Copyright © 2010 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

A Condition Based Maintenance Approach to Forecasting B-1 Aircraft Parts

Science.gov (United States)

2017-03-23

Air Force Institute of Technology AFIT Scholar Theses and Dissertations 3-23-2017 A Condition Based Maintenance Approach to Forecasting B-1 Aircraft...component’s life history where reliability forecasts could be stipulated based on a component’s current condition . One of the major issues their report noted...Engine Condition Monitoring System Specification. Contract Number DOT-CG-80513-A. Grand Prairie, TX. Air Force Materiel Command. (2011) Requirements For

Technology data characterizing water heating in commercial buildings: Application to end-use forecasting

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sezgen, O.; Koomey, J.G.

1995-12-01

Commercial-sector conservation analyses have traditionally focused on lighting and space conditioning because of their relatively-large shares of electricity and fuel consumption in commercial buildings. In this report we focus on water heating, which is one of the neglected end uses in the commercial sector. The share of the water-heating end use in commercial-sector electricity consumption is 3%, which corresponds to 0.3 quadrillion Btu (quads) of primary energy consumption. Water heating accounts for 15% of commercial-sector fuel use, which corresponds to 1.6 quads of primary energy consumption. Although smaller in absolute size than the savings associated with lighting and space conditioning, the potential cost-effective energy savings from water heaters are large enough in percentage terms to warrant closer attention. In addition, water heating is much more important in particular building types than in the commercial sector as a whole. Fuel consumption for water heating is highest in lodging establishments, hospitals, and restaurants (0.27, 0.22, and 0.19 quads, respectively); water heating`s share of fuel consumption for these building types is 35%, 18% and 32%, respectively. At the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, we have developed and refined a base-year data set characterizing water heating technologies in commercial buildings as well as a modeling framework. We present the data and modeling framework in this report. The present commercial floorstock is characterized in terms of water heating requirements and technology saturations. Cost-efficiency data for water heating technologies are also developed. These data are intended to support models used for forecasting energy use of water heating in the commercial sector.

Indeks Penilaian Kematangan (Maturity Manajemen Keamanan Layanan TI

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Farroh Sakinah

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Pemanfaatan Teknologi Informasi (TI dalam mendukung terselenggaranya pelayanan yang optimal menjadi kebutuhan utama organisasi saat ini. Jaminan pengelolaan layanan dan keamanan yang baik menjadi salah satu tolok ukurnya. Pengimplementasian sebuah standar menjadi salah satu solusinya meskipun penggunaan satu buah standar dirasa belum maksimal melihat cakupan yang disediakan kurang luas sehingga diadakannya upaya penggabungan beberapa standar dengan harapan standar-standar tersebut dapat saling melengkapi. Pengimplementasian beberapa standar ini dapat dimonitoring tingkat kematangannya (maturity dengan menggunakan alat ukur penilaian kematangan (maturity. Alat ukur kematangan (maturity manajemen keamanan layanan ini merupakan gabungan pemetaan dari control objective IT Governance COBIT 4.1 yang dipenuhi kebutuhan manajemen layanannya sesuai dengan Service Management di dalam ITIL v3 (Information Technology Infrastructure Library. Selanjutnya kebutuhan manajemen layanan ini diukur dengan maturity level COBIT 4.1 dan disesuaikan dengan framework ISO 27000 untuk memaksimalkan manajemen keamanan informasi.

Forecasting Container Throughput at the Doraleh Port in Djibouti through Time Series Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Mohamed Ismael, Hawa; Vandyck, George Kobina

The Doraleh Container Terminal (DCT) located in Djibouti has been noted as the most technologically advanced container terminal on the African continent. DCT's strategic location at the crossroads of the main shipping lanes connecting Asia, Africa and Europe put it in a unique position to provide important shipping services to vessels plying that route. This paper aims to forecast container throughput through the Doraleh Container Port in Djibouti by Time Series Analysis. A selection of univariate forecasting models has been used, namely Triple Exponential Smoothing Model, Grey Model and Linear Regression Model. By utilizing the above three models and their combination, the forecast of container throughput through the Doraleh port was realized. A comparison of the different forecasting results of the three models, in addition to the combination forecast is then undertaken, based on commonly used evaluation criteria Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The study found that the Linear Regression forecasting Model was the best prediction method for forecasting the container throughput, since its forecast error was the least. Based on the regression model, a ten (10) year forecast for container throughput at DCT has been made.

Exploring knowledge management maturity from funcionalist and interpretivist perspectives

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

José Enrique Arias-Pérez

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to explore the Knowledge Management Maturity Model (KMMM in big companies that are pioneers in the implementation of KM practices in Medellin, Colombia. The KMMM integrates the Funcionalist and Interpretivist perspectives on knowledge management and consists of four key areas: Organization and People, Processes, Technology, and Interpretation. Cluster analysis helped establishing the ranges of the five maturity levels: Initial, Awareness, Defined, Managed, and Optimized. The results showed that only two companies overcame the “Defined” level, and the best performance was achieved in the Technology key area. In conclusion, the companies have difficulties at going further the implementation of basic KM initiatives and achieving a higher level of maturity associated with the articulation of KM practices with business processes and a higher degree of appropriation and usage by individuals. This may occur because of the preponderance of the Functionalist approach in the business context and the low level of penetration and integration with the Interpretivist perspective of KM.

Applied Technologies and Prospects of Conformance Control Treatments in China Technologies et perspectives pour l’amélioration du profil de balayage dans les champs pétroliers matures produits par injection d’eau en Chine

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liu Yuzhang

2010-02-01

Full Text Available China is the largest user of chemical-based conformance control treatments and a series of technologies have been successfully developed and deployed in recent years. This paper first shows the milestones of development and application of conformance control technologies in China. Then integrated conformance control technologies are reviewed followed by the lessons we have learned, and then a few major specific conformance control technologies are addressed, including tracer injection and channels explanation, potentiometric testing to identify areal sweep efficiency, Pressure Index (PI decisionmaking technology to select well candidate, complementary decision-making technology to select well candidate and design application parameters, and major chemicals for in-depth fluid diversion technologies. In addition, this paper also describes the principles and applications of some promising technologies of combined chemical-based conformance treatment with other EOR/IOR process, including the combination technology of surfactant and water shutoff, profile control and mini-scale surfactant flooding, acid treatment and profile control treatment. Finally, this paper summarizes the problems and challenges faced by mature water flooded oilfields in China. Based on recent well tests, tracer testing and interpretation, and previous water control treatment experience, it appears that channels or high permeability streaks are common in mature water flooded oilfields. Some research directions and promising technologies are suggested. La Chine est le plus grand utilisateur de méthodes chimiques pour l’amélioration du profil de balayage de l’eau pour l’exploitation des champs pétroliers matures. Toute une série de technologies y ont d’ailleurs été créées et déployées avec succès ces dernières années. Cet article commence par présenter les étapes du développement et de la mise en place de ces technologies de contrôle de profil en Chine

Mature Oocyte Cryopreservation for Fertility Preservation.

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, Tina; Motan, Tarek

2016-01-01

In recent decades, advances in cancer treatment have led to a dramatic improvement in long term survival. This has led to an increasing focus on quality of life after surviving cancer treatment, with fertility being an important aspect. Given the known reproductive risks of cancer therapies, there has been a growing interest in the field of fertility preservation (also referred to as oncofertility). Mature oocyte cryopreservation is no longer considered experimental and has become a realistic option for reproductive aged women prior to undergoing cancer treatment. Additionally, as cryopreservation techniques improve, mature oocyte cryopreservation is increasing being marketed to healthy women without cancer wishing to delay child bearing, also termed "social egg freezing". This chapter provides a review of the current technology, use, and outcomes of mature oocyte cryopreservation. It also outlines the ethical debate surrounding social egg freezing and directions for future research in female fertility preservation.

Maturity Model for Advancing Smart Grid Interoperability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Knight, Mark; Widergren, Steven E.; Mater, J.; Montgomery, Austin

2013-10-28

Abstract—Interoperability is about the properties of devices and systems to connect and work properly. Advancing interoperability eases integration and maintenance of the resulting interconnection. This leads to faster integration, lower labor and component costs, predictability of projects and the resulting performance, and evolutionary paths for upgrade. When specifications are shared and standardized, competition and novel solutions can bring new value streams to the community of stakeholders involved. Advancing interoperability involves reaching agreement for how things join at their interfaces. The quality of the agreements and the alignment of parties involved in the agreement present challenges that are best met with process improvement techniques. The GridWise® Architecture Council (GWAC) sponsored by the United States Department of Energy is supporting an effort to use concepts from capability maturity models used in the software industry to advance interoperability of smart grid technology. An interoperability maturity model has been drafted and experience is being gained through trials on various types of projects and community efforts. This paper describes the value and objectives of maturity models, the nature of the interoperability maturity model and how it compares with other maturity models, and experiences gained with its use.

Inflation Forecast Contracts

OpenAIRE

Gersbach, Hans; Hahn, Volker

2012-01-01

We introduce a new type of incentive contract for central bankers: inflation forecast contracts, which make central bankers’ remunerations contingent on the precision of their inflation forecasts. We show that such contracts enable central bankers to influence inflation expectations more effectively, thus facilitating more successful stabilization of current inflation. Inflation forecast contracts improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts, but have adverse consequences for output. On balanc...

Multidisciplinary studies of the social, economic and political impact resulting from recent advances in satellite meteorology. Volume 6: Executive summary. [technological forecasting spacecraft control/attitude (inclination) -classical mechanics

Science.gov (United States)

1975-01-01

An assessment of the technological impact of modern satellite weather forecasting for the United States is presented. Topics discussed are: (1) television broadcasting of weather; (2) agriculture (crop production); (3) water resources; (4) urban development; (5) recreation; and (6) transportation.

Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1996-08-01

This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation

Forecasting short-term wind farm production in complex terrain. Volume 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

LeBlanc, M.

2005-01-01

Wind energy forecasting adds financial value to wind farms and may soon become a regulatory requirement. A robust information technology system is essential for addressing industry demands. Various forecasting methodologies for short-term wind production in complex terrain were presented. Numerical weather predictions were discussed with reference to supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system site measurements. Forecasting methods using wind speed, direction, temperature and pressure, as well as issues concerning statistical modelling were presented. Model output statistics and neural networks were reviewed, as well as significant components of error. Results from a Garrad Hassan forecaster with a European wind farm were presented, including wind speed evaluation, and forecast horizon for T + 1 hours, T + 12 hours, and T + 36 hours. It was suggested that buy prices often reflect the cost of under-prediction, and that forecasting has more potential where the spread is greatest. Accurate T + 19 hours to T + 31 hours could enable participation in the day-ahead market, which is less volatile and prices are usually better. Estimates of possible profits per annum through the use of GH forecaster power predictions were presented, calculated over and above spilling power to the grid. It was concluded that accurate forecasts combined with certainty evaluation enables the optimization of wind energy in the market, and is applicable to a wide range of weather regimes and terrain types. It was suggested that site feedback is essential for good forecasts at short horizons, and that the value of forecasting is dependent on the market. refs., tabs., figs

Measurement of Food Safety Culture using Survey and Maturity Profiling Tools

OpenAIRE

Jespersen, Lone; Griffiths, Mansel; Maclaurin, Tanya; Chapman, Ben; Wallace, Carol A.

2016-01-01

Organizational culture is defined by dimensions and characteristics that can be used to measure food safety culture in food manufacturing through a food safety maturity model. Maturity models from quality, health care, and information technology have been used since early 1970 and this work presents a novel food safety culture maturity model with five capability areas and food safety pinpointed behaviours specific to functions and levels in a food manufacturing company. A survey tool linked t...

Maturity and maturity models in lean construction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Claus Nesensohn

2014-03-01

Full Text Available In recent years there has been an increasing interest in maturity models in management-related disciplines; which reflects a growing recognition that becoming more mature and having a model to guide the route to maturity can help organisations in managing major transformational change. Lean Construction (LC is an increasingly important improvement approach that organisations seek to embed. This study explores how to apply the maturity models to LC. Hence the attitudes, opinions and experiences of key industry informants with high levels of knowledge of LC were investigated. To achieve this, a review of maturity models was conducted, and data for the analysis was collected through a sequential process involving three methods. First a group interview with seven key informants. Second a follow up discussion with the same individuals to investigate some of the issues raised in more depth. Third an online discussion held via LinkedIn in which members shared their views on some of the results. Overall, we found that there is a lack of common understanding as to what maturity means in LC, though there is general agreement that the concept of maturity is a suitable one to reflect the path of evolution for LC within organisations.

Commercial Space with Technology Maturation

Science.gov (United States)

McCleskey, Carey M.; Rhodes, Russell E.; Robinson, John W.

2013-01-01

To provide affordable space transportation we must be capable of using common fixed assets and the infrastructure for multiple purposes simultaneously. The Space Shuttle was operated for thirty years, but was not able to establish an effective continuous improvement program because of the high risk to the crew on every mission. An unmanned capability is needed to provide an acceptable risk to the primary mission. This paper is intended to present a case where a commercial space venture could share the large fixed cost of operating the infrastructure with the government while the government provides new advanced technology that is focused on reduced operating cost to the common launch transportation system. A conceivable commercial space venture could provide educational entertainment for the country's youth that would stimulate their interest in the science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) through access at entertainment parks or the existing Space Visitor Centers. The paper uses this example to demonstrate how growing public-private space market demand will re-orient space transportation industry priorities in flight and ground system design and technology development, and how the infrastructure is used and shared.

A Novel Nonlinear Combined Forecasting System for Short-Term Load Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chengshi Tian

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Short-term load forecasting plays an indispensable role in electric power systems, which is not only an extremely challenging task but also a concerning issue for all society due to complex nonlinearity characteristics. However, most previous combined forecasting models were based on optimizing weight coefficients to develop a linear combined forecasting model, while ignoring that the linear combined model only considers the contribution of the linear terms to improving the model’s performance, which will lead to poor forecasting results because of the significance of the neglected and potential nonlinear terms. In this paper, a novel nonlinear combined forecasting system, which consists of three modules (improved data pre-processing module, forecasting module and the evaluation module is developed for short-term load forecasting. Different from the simple data pre-processing of most previous studies, the improved data pre-processing module based on longitudinal data selection is successfully developed in this system, which further improves the effectiveness of data pre-processing and then enhances the final forecasting performance. Furthermore, the modified support vector machine is developed to integrate all the individual predictors and obtain the final prediction, which successfully overcomes the upper drawbacks of the linear combined model. Moreover, the evaluation module is incorporated to perform a scientific evaluation for the developed system. The half-hourly electrical load data from New South Wales are employed to verify the effectiveness of the developed forecasting system, and the results reveal that the developed nonlinear forecasting system can be employed in the dispatching and planning for smart grids.

Project in fiscal 1988 for research and development of basic technologies in next generation industries. Research and development of superconducting materials and superconducting elements (Achievement report on forecast and research of superconducting element technologies); 1988 nendo chodendo soshi gijutsu yosoku kenkyu seika hokokusho

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1989-03-01

With an objective to perform survey and forecast on the future of superconducting elements, collection of latest technological information and analyses of technological trends were carried out by members of the Technology Forecast and Research Committee. This paper summarizes the achievements therein. It was discovered that the Josephson element using an Al{sub 2}O{sub 3} barrier and an Nb electrode shows excellent characteristics with very good reproducibility. Trial fabrication of a four-bit micro processor was recently executed successfully by the SQUID gate using the above element. On the other hand, application of devices using high-temperature superconductors has not come out with an achievement. Although a large number of achievements have been released on mono-crystalline thin films that show good characteristics, development of substrates and barrier materials is still needed for device configuration. The method for manufacturing metal-based superconducting films has been established nearly completely as an elementary technology to develop the superconducting elements. However, making thinner the high-temperature superconducting films having been discovered recently is encountering a number of inherent problems, whereas the present stage is such that experimental discussions are being made. The process technologies, simulation, and evaluation technologies are basically the same as those for the metallic systems even for the oxide superconduction. (NEDO)

Magnetogram Forecast: An All-Clear Space Weather Forecasting System

Science.gov (United States)

Barghouty, Nasser; Falconer, David

2015-01-01

Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the drivers of severe space weather. Forecasting the probability of their occurrence is critical in improving space weather forecasts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) currently uses the McIntosh active region category system, in which each active region on the disk is assigned to one of 60 categories, and uses the historical flare rates of that category to make an initial forecast that can then be adjusted by the NOAA forecaster. Flares and CMEs are caused by the sudden release of energy from the coronal magnetic field by magnetic reconnection. It is believed that the rate of flare and CME occurrence in an active region is correlated with the free energy of an active region. While the free energy cannot be measured directly with present observations, proxies of the free energy can instead be used to characterize the relative free energy of an active region. The Magnetogram Forecast (MAG4) (output is available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center) was conceived and designed to be a databased, all-clear forecasting system to support the operational goals of NASA's Space Radiation Analysis Group. The MAG4 system automatically downloads nearreal- time line-of-sight Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) magnetograms on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite, identifies active regions on the solar disk, measures a free-energy proxy, and then applies forecasting curves to convert the free-energy proxy into predicted event rates for X-class flares, M- and X-class flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and solar energetic particle events (SPEs). The forecast curves themselves are derived from a sample of 40,000 magnetograms from 1,300 active region samples, observed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Michelson Doppler Imager. Figure 1 is an example of MAG4 visual output

Medium Range Forecasts Representation (and Long Range Forecasts?)

Science.gov (United States)

Vincendon, J.-C.

2009-09-01

The progress of the numerical forecasts urges us to interest us in more and more distant ranges. We thus supply more and more forecasts with term of some days. Nevertheless, precautions of use are necessary to give the most reliable and the most relevant possible information. Available in a TV bulletin or on quite other support (Internet, mobile phone), the interpretation and the representation of a medium range forecast (5 - 15 days) must be different from those of a short range forecast. Indeed, the "foresee-ability” of a meteorological phenomenon decreases gradually in the course of the ranges, it decreases all the more quickly that the phenomenon is of small scale. So, at the end of some days, the probability character of a forecast becomes very widely dominating. That is why in Meteo-France the forecasts of D+4 to D+7 are accompanied with a confidence index since around ten years. It is a figure between 1 and 5: the more we approach 5, the more the confidence in the supplied forecast is good. In the practice, an indication is supplied for period D+4 / D+5, the other one for period D+6 / D+7, every day being able to benefit from a different forecast, that is be represented in a independent way. We thus supply a global tendency over 24 hours with less and less precise symbols as the range goes away. Concrete examples will be presented. From now on two years, we also publish forecasts to D+8 / J+9, accompanied with a sign of confidence (" good reliability " or " to confirm "). These two days are grouped together on a single map because for us, the described tendency to this term is relevant on a duration about 48 hours with a spatial scale slightly superior to the synoptic scale. So, we avoid producing more than two zones of types of weather over France and we content with giving an evolution for the temperatures (still, in increase or in decline). Newspapers began to publish this information, it should soon be the case of televisions. It is particularly

The strategy of professional forecasting

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ottaviani, Marco; Sørensen, Peter Norman

2006-01-01

We develop and compare two theories of professional forecasters’ strategic behavior. The first theory, reputational cheap talk, posits that forecasters endeavor to convince the market that they are well informed. The market evaluates their forecasting talent on the basis of the forecasts...... and the realized state. If the market expects forecasters to report their posterior expectations honestly, then forecasts are shaded toward the prior mean. With correct market expectations, equilibrium forecasts are imprecise but not shaded. The second theory posits that forecasters compete in a forecasting...... contest with pre-specified rules. In a winner-take-all contest, equilibrium forecasts are excessively differentiated...

Are Forecast Updates Progressive?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

2010-01-01

textabstractMacro-economic forecasts typically involve both a model component, which is replicable, as well as intuition, which is non-replicable. Intuition is expert knowledge possessed by a forecaster. If forecast updates are progressive, forecast updates should become more accurate, on average,

A Systems Modeling Approach to Forecast Corn Economic Optimum Nitrogen Rate

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laila A. Puntel

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Historically crop models have been used to evaluate crop yield responses to nitrogen (N rates after harvest when it is too late for the farmers to make in-season adjustments. We hypothesize that the use of a crop model as an in-season forecast tool will improve current N decision-making. To explore this, we used the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM calibrated with long-term experimental data for central Iowa, USA (16-years in continuous corn and 15-years in soybean-corn rotation combined with actual weather data up to a specific crop stage and historical weather data thereafter. The objectives were to: (1 evaluate the accuracy and uncertainty of corn yield and economic optimum N rate (EONR predictions at four forecast times (planting time, 6th and 12th leaf, and silking phenological stages; (2 determine whether the use of analogous historical weather years based on precipitation and temperature patterns as opposed to using a 35-year dataset could improve the accuracy of the forecast; and (3 quantify the value added by the crop model in predicting annual EONR and yields using the site-mean EONR and the yield at the EONR to benchmark predicted values. Results indicated that the mean corn yield predictions at planting time (R2 = 0.77 using 35-years of historical weather was close to the observed and predicted yield at maturity (R2 = 0.81. Across all forecasting times, the EONR predictions were more accurate in corn-corn than soybean-corn rotation (relative root mean square error, RRMSE, of 25 vs. 45%, respectively. At planting time, the APSIM model predicted the direction of optimum N rates (above, below or at average site-mean EONR in 62% of the cases examined (n = 31 with an average error range of ±38 kg N ha−1 (22% of the average N rate. Across all forecast times, prediction error of EONR was about three times higher than yield predictions. The use of the 35-year weather record was better than using selected historical weather

A Systems Modeling Approach to Forecast Corn Economic Optimum Nitrogen Rate

Science.gov (United States)

Puntel, Laila A.; Sawyer, John E.; Barker, Daniel W.; Thorburn, Peter J.; Castellano, Michael J.; Moore, Kenneth J.; VanLoocke, Andrew; Heaton, Emily A.; Archontoulis, Sotirios V.

2018-01-01

Historically crop models have been used to evaluate crop yield responses to nitrogen (N) rates after harvest when it is too late for the farmers to make in-season adjustments. We hypothesize that the use of a crop model as an in-season forecast tool will improve current N decision-making. To explore this, we used the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) calibrated with long-term experimental data for central Iowa, USA (16-years in continuous corn and 15-years in soybean-corn rotation) combined with actual weather data up to a specific crop stage and historical weather data thereafter. The objectives were to: (1) evaluate the accuracy and uncertainty of corn yield and economic optimum N rate (EONR) predictions at four forecast times (planting time, 6th and 12th leaf, and silking phenological stages); (2) determine whether the use of analogous historical weather years based on precipitation and temperature patterns as opposed to using a 35-year dataset could improve the accuracy of the forecast; and (3) quantify the value added by the crop model in predicting annual EONR and yields using the site-mean EONR and the yield at the EONR to benchmark predicted values. Results indicated that the mean corn yield predictions at planting time (R2 = 0.77) using 35-years of historical weather was close to the observed and predicted yield at maturity (R2 = 0.81). Across all forecasting times, the EONR predictions were more accurate in corn-corn than soybean-corn rotation (relative root mean square error, RRMSE, of 25 vs. 45%, respectively). At planting time, the APSIM model predicted the direction of optimum N rates (above, below or at average site-mean EONR) in 62% of the cases examined (n = 31) with an average error range of ±38 kg N ha−1 (22% of the average N rate). Across all forecast times, prediction error of EONR was about three times higher than yield predictions. The use of the 35-year weather record was better than using selected historical weather years

A Systems Modeling Approach to Forecast Corn Economic Optimum Nitrogen Rate.

Science.gov (United States)

Puntel, Laila A; Sawyer, John E; Barker, Daniel W; Thorburn, Peter J; Castellano, Michael J; Moore, Kenneth J; VanLoocke, Andrew; Heaton, Emily A; Archontoulis, Sotirios V

2018-01-01

Historically crop models have been used to evaluate crop yield responses to nitrogen (N) rates after harvest when it is too late for the farmers to make in-season adjustments. We hypothesize that the use of a crop model as an in-season forecast tool will improve current N decision-making. To explore this, we used the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) calibrated with long-term experimental data for central Iowa, USA (16-years in continuous corn and 15-years in soybean-corn rotation) combined with actual weather data up to a specific crop stage and historical weather data thereafter. The objectives were to: (1) evaluate the accuracy and uncertainty of corn yield and economic optimum N rate (EONR) predictions at four forecast times (planting time, 6th and 12th leaf, and silking phenological stages); (2) determine whether the use of analogous historical weather years based on precipitation and temperature patterns as opposed to using a 35-year dataset could improve the accuracy of the forecast; and (3) quantify the value added by the crop model in predicting annual EONR and yields using the site-mean EONR and the yield at the EONR to benchmark predicted values. Results indicated that the mean corn yield predictions at planting time ( R 2 = 0.77) using 35-years of historical weather was close to the observed and predicted yield at maturity ( R 2 = 0.81). Across all forecasting times, the EONR predictions were more accurate in corn-corn than soybean-corn rotation (relative root mean square error, RRMSE, of 25 vs. 45%, respectively). At planting time, the APSIM model predicted the direction of optimum N rates (above, below or at average site-mean EONR) in 62% of the cases examined ( n = 31) with an average error range of ±38 kg N ha -1 (22% of the average N rate). Across all forecast times, prediction error of EONR was about three times higher than yield predictions. The use of the 35-year weather record was better than using selected historical weather

The Rise of Complexity in Flood Forecasting: Opportunities, Challenges and Tradeoffs

Science.gov (United States)

Wood, A. W.; Clark, M. P.; Nijssen, B.

2017-12-01

Operational flood forecasting is currently undergoing a major transformation. Most national flood forecasting services have relied for decades on lumped, highly calibrated conceptual hydrological models running on local office computing resources, providing deterministic streamflow predictions at gauged river locations that are important to stakeholders and emergency managers. A variety of recent technological advances now make it possible to run complex, high-to-hyper-resolution models for operational hydrologic prediction over large domains, and the US National Weather Service is now attempting to use hyper-resolution models to create new forecast services and products. Yet other `increased-complexity' forecasting strategies also exist that pursue different tradeoffs between model complexity (i.e., spatial resolution, physics) and streamflow forecast system objectives. There is currently a pressing need for a greater understanding in the hydrology community of the opportunities, challenges and tradeoffs associated with these different forecasting approaches, and for a greater participation by the hydrology community in evaluating, guiding and implementing these approaches. Intermediate-resolution forecast systems, for instance, use distributed land surface model (LSM) physics but retain the agility to deploy ensemble methods (including hydrologic data assimilation and hindcast-based post-processing). Fully coupled numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems, another example, use still coarser LSMs to produce ensemble streamflow predictions either at the model scale or after sub-grid scale runoff routing. Based on the direct experience of the authors and colleagues in research and operational forecasting, this presentation describes examples of different streamflow forecast paradigms, from the traditional to the recent hyper-resolution, to illustrate the range of choices facing forecast system developers. We also discuss the degree to which the strengths and

Optimal operation and forecasting policy for pump storage plants in day-ahead markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Muche, Thomas

2014-01-01

Highlights: • We investigate unit commitment deploying stochastic and deterministic approaches. • We consider day-ahead markets, its forecast and weekly price based unit commitment. • Stochastic and deterministic unit commitment are identical for the first planning day. • Unit commitment and bidding policy can be based on the deterministic approach. • Robust forecasting models should be estimated based on the whole planning horizon. - Abstract: Pump storage plants are an important electricity storage technology at present. Investments in this technology are expected to increase. The necessary investment valuation often includes expected cash flows from future price-based unit commitment policies. A price-based unit commitment policy has to consider market price uncertainty and the information revealing nature of electricity markets. For this environment stochastic programming models are suggested to derive the optimal unit commitment policy. For the considered day-ahead price electricity market stochastic and deterministic unit commitment policies are comparable suggesting an application of easier implementable deterministic models. In order to identify suitable unit commitment and forecasting policies, deterministic unit commitment models are applied to actual day-ahead electricity prices of a whole year. As a result, a robust forecasting model should consider the unit commitment planning period. This robust forecasting models result in expected cash flows similar to realized ones allowing a reliable investment valuation

A GM (1, 1) Markov Chain-Based Aeroengine Performance Degradation Forecast Approach Using Exhaust Gas Temperature

OpenAIRE

Zhao, Ning-bo; Yang, Jia-long; Li, Shu-ying; Sun, Yue-wu

2014-01-01

Performance degradation forecast technology for quantitatively assessing degradation states of aeroengine using exhaust gas temperature is an important technology in the aeroengine health management. In this paper, a GM (1, 1) Markov chain-based approach is introduced to forecast exhaust gas temperature by taking the advantages of GM (1, 1) model in time series and the advantages of Markov chain model in dealing with highly nonlinear and stochastic data caused by uncertain factors. In this ap...

Relating Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Error Distributions with Measurements of Forecast Uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

2016-03-01

CYCLONE TRACK FORECAST ERROR DISTRIBUTIONS WITH MEASUREMENTS OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY by Nicholas M. Chisler March 2016 Thesis Advisor...March 2016 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED Master’s thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE RELATING TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK FORECAST ERROR DISTRIBUTIONS...WITH MEASUREMENTS OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Nicholas M. Chisler 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES

Grey Forecast Rainfall with Flow Updating Algorithm for Real-Time Flood Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jui-Yi Ho

2015-04-01

Full Text Available The dynamic relationship between watershed characteristics and rainfall-runoff has been widely studied in recent decades. Since watershed rainfall-runoff is a non-stationary process, most deterministic flood forecasting approaches are ineffective without the assistance of adaptive algorithms. The purpose of this paper is to propose an effective flow forecasting system that integrates a rainfall forecasting model, watershed runoff model, and real-time updating algorithm. This study adopted a grey rainfall forecasting technique, based on existing hourly rainfall data. A geomorphology-based runoff model can be used for simulating impacts of the changing geo-climatic conditions on the hydrologic response of unsteady and non-linear watershed system, and flow updating algorithm were combined to estimate watershed runoff according to measured flow data. The proposed flood forecasting system was applied to three watersheds; one in the United States and two in Northern Taiwan. Four sets of rainfall-runoff simulations were performed to test the accuracy of the proposed flow forecasting technique. The results indicated that the forecast and observed hydrographs are in good agreement for all three watersheds. The proposed flow forecasting system could assist authorities in minimizing loss of life and property during flood events.

Forecast of useful energy for the TIMES-Norway model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rosenberg, Eva

2012-01-01

A regional forecast of useful energy demand in seven Norwegian regions is calculated based on an earlier work with a national forecast. This forecast will be input to the energy system model TIMES-Norway and analyses will result in forecasts of energy use of different energy carriers with varying external conditions (not included in this report). The forecast presented here describes the methodology used and the resulting forecast of useful energy. lt is based on information of the long-term development of the economy by the Ministry of Finance, projections of population growths from Statistics Norway and several other studies. The definition of a forecast of useful energy demand is not absolute, but depends on the purpose. One has to be careful not to include parts that are a part of the energy system model, such as energy efficiency measures. In the forecast presented here the influence of new building regulations and the prohibition of production of incandescent light bulbs in EU etc. are included. Other energy efficiency measures such as energy management, heat pumps, tightening of leaks etc. are modelled as technologies to invest in and are included in the TIMES-Norway model. The elasticity between different energy carriers are handled by the TIMES-Norway model and some elasticity is also included as the possibility to invest in energy efficiency measures. The forecast results in an increase of the total useful energy from 2006 to 2050 by 18 o/o. The growth is expected to be highest in the regions South and East. The industry remains at a constant level in the base case and increased or reduced energy demand is analysed as different scenarios with the TIMES-Norway model. The most important driver is the population growth. Together with the assumptions made it results in increased useful energy demand in the household and service sectors of 25 o/o and 57 % respectively.(au)

Forecast of useful energy for the TIMES-Norway model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rosenberg, Eva

2012-07-25

A regional forecast of useful energy demand in seven Norwegian regions is calculated based on an earlier work with a national forecast. This forecast will be input to the energy system model TIMES-Norway and analyses will result in forecasts of energy use of different energy carriers with varying external conditions (not included in this report). The forecast presented here describes the methodology used and the resulting forecast of useful energy. lt is based on information of the long-term development of the economy by the Ministry of Finance, projections of population growths from Statistics Norway and several other studies. The definition of a forecast of useful energy demand is not absolute, but depends on the purpose. One has to be careful not to include parts that are a part of the energy system model, such as energy efficiency measures. In the forecast presented here the influence of new building regulations and the prohibition of production of incandescent light bulbs in EU etc. are included. Other energy efficiency measures such as energy management, heat pumps, tightening of leaks etc. are modelled as technologies to invest in and are included in the TIMES-Norway model. The elasticity between different energy carriers are handled by the TIMES-Norway model and some elasticity is also included as the possibility to invest in energy efficiency measures. The forecast results in an increase of the total useful energy from 2006 to 2050 by 18 o/o. The growth is expected to be highest in the regions South and East. The industry remains at a constant level in the base case and increased or reduced energy demand is analysed as different scenarios with the TIMES-Norway model. The most important driver is the population growth. Together with the assumptions made it results in increased useful energy demand in the household and service sectors of 25 o/o and 57 % respectively.(au)

Recent Progress of Solar Weather Forecasting at Naoc

Science.gov (United States)

He, Han; Wang, Huaning; Du, Zhanle; Zhang, Liyun; Huang, Xin; Yan, Yan; Fan, Yuliang; Zhu, Xiaoshuai; Guo, Xiaobo; Dai, Xinghua

The history of solar weather forecasting services at National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences (NAOC) can be traced back to 1960s. Nowadays, NAOC is the headquarters of the Regional Warning Center of China (RWC-China), which is one of the members of the International Space Environment Service (ISES). NAOC is responsible for exchanging data, information and space weather forecasts of RWC-China with other RWCs. The solar weather forecasting services at NAOC cover short-term prediction (within two or three days), medium-term prediction (within several weeks), and long-term prediction (in time scale of solar cycle) of solar activities. Most efforts of the short-term prediction research are concentrated on the solar eruptive phenomena, such as flares, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar proton events, which are the key driving sources of strong space weather disturbances. Based on the high quality observation data of the latest space-based and ground-based solar telescopes and with the help of artificial intelligence techniques, new numerical models with quantitative analyses and physical consideration are being developed for the predictions of solar eruptive events. The 3-D computer simulation technology is being introduced for the operational solar weather service platform to visualize the monitoring of solar activities, the running of the prediction models, as well as the presenting of the forecasting results. A new generation operational solar weather monitoring and forecasting system is expected to be constructed in the near future at NAOC.

Long-term fashion forecast based on the sociological model of cyclic changes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

А V Lebsak-Kleimans

2010-09-01

Full Text Available The concepts of social changes coined by classical sociology may be incorporated as the basis for the elaboration of social prognostication models which, in turn, may suitable for fashion forecast applied technologies development. In the framework of the given paper fashion is described as the phenomenon of collective behaviour. The principles of long-term fashion trends forecast are shown to be in line with the concepts of cyclic development.

Short-term residential load forecasting: Impact of calendar effects and forecast granularity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lusis, Peter; Khalilpour, Kaveh Rajab; Andrew, Lachlan

2017-01-01

forecasting for a single-customer or even down at an appliance level. Access to high resolution data from smart meters has enabled the research community to assess conventional load forecasting techniques and develop new forecasting strategies suitable for demand-side disaggregated loads. This paper studies...... how calendar effects, forecasting granularity and the length of the training set affect the accuracy of a day-ahead load forecast for residential customers. Root mean square error (RMSE) and normalized RMSE were used as forecast error metrics. Regression trees, neural networks, and support vector...... regression yielded similar average RMSE results, but statistical analysis showed that regression trees technique is significantly better. The use of historical load profiles with daily and weekly seasonality, combined with weather data, leaves the explicit calendar effects a very low predictive power...

Winter wheat quality monitoring and forecasting system based on remote sensing and environmental factors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haiyang, Yu; Yanmei, Liu; Guijun, Yang; Xiaodong, Yang; Chenwei, Nie; Dong, Ren

2014-01-01

To achieve dynamic winter wheat quality monitoring and forecasting in larger scale regions, the objective of this study was to design and develop a winter wheat quality monitoring and forecasting system by using a remote sensing index and environmental factors. The winter wheat quality trend was forecasted before the harvest and quality was monitored after the harvest, respectively. The traditional quality-vegetation index from remote sensing monitoring and forecasting models were improved. Combining with latitude information, the vegetation index was used to estimate agronomy parameters which were related with winter wheat quality in the early stages for forecasting the quality trend. A combination of rainfall in May, temperature in May, illumination at later May, the soil available nitrogen content and other environmental factors established the quality monitoring model. Compared with a simple quality-vegetation index, the remote sensing monitoring and forecasting model used in this system get greatly improved accuracy. Winter wheat quality was monitored and forecasted based on the above models, and this system was completed based on WebGIS technology. Finally, in 2010 the operation process of winter wheat quality monitoring system was presented in Beijing, the monitoring and forecasting results was outputted as thematic maps

Dynamic neural network modeling of HF radar current maps for forecasting oil spill trajectories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tissot, P.; Perez, J.; Kelly, F.J.; Bonner, J.; Michaud, P.

2001-01-01

This paper examined the concept of dynamic neural network (NN) modeling for short-term forecasts of coastal high-frequency (HF) radar current maps offshore of Galveston Texas. HF radar technology is emerging as a viable and affordable way to measure surface currents in real time and the number of users applying the technology is increasing. A 25 megahertz, two site, Seasonde HF radar system was used to map ocean and bay surface currents along the coast of Texas where wind and river discharge create complex and rapidly changing current patters that override the weaker tidal flow component. The HF radar system is particularly useful in this type of setting because its mobility makes it a good marine spill response tool that could provide hourly current maps. This capability helps improve deployment of response resources. In addition, the NN model recently developed by the Conrad Blucher Institute can be used to forecast water levels during storm events. Forecasted currents are based on time series of current vectors from HF radar plus wind speed, wind direction, and water levels, as well as tidal forecasts. The dynamic NN model was tested to evaluate its performance and the results were compared with a baseline model which assumes the currents do not change from the time of the forecast up to the forecasted time. The NN model showed improvements over the baseline model for forecasting time equal or greater than 3 hours, but the difference was relatively small. The test demonstrated the ability of the dynamic NN model to link meteorological forcing functions with HF radar current maps. Development of the dynamic NN modeling is still ongoing. 18 refs., 1 tab., 5 figs

Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations: Bringing Science and Decision-Makers Together to Explore Use of Hydrometeorological Forecasts to Support Future Reservoir Operations

Science.gov (United States)

Ralph, F. M.; Jasperse, J.

2017-12-01

Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) is a proposed strategy that is exploring inorporation of improved hydrometeorological forecasts of land-falling atmospheric rivers on the U.S. West Coast into reservoir operations. The first testbed for this strategy is Lake Mendocino, which is located in the East Fork of the 1485 mi2 Russian River Watershed in northern California. This project is guided by the Lake Mendocino FIRO Steering Committee (SC). The SC is an ad hoc committee that consists of water managers and scientists from several federal, state, and local agencies, and universities who have teamed to evaluate whether current or improved technology and scientific understanding can be utilized to improve water supply reliability, enhance flood mitigation and support recovery of listed salmon for the Russian River of northern California. In 2015, the SC created a detailed work plan, which included a Preliminary Viability Assessment, which has now been completed. The SC developed a vision that operational efficiency would be improved by using forecasts to inform decisions about releasing or storing water. FIRO would use available reservoir storage in an efficient manner by (1) better forecasting inflow (or lack of inflow) with enhanced technology, and (2) adapting operation in real time to meet the need for storage, rather than making storage available just in case it is needed. The envisioned FIRO strategy has the potential to simultaneously improve water supply reliability, flood protection, and ecosystem outcomes through a more efficient use of existing infrastructure while requiring minimal capital improvements in the physical structure of the dam. This presentation will provide an overview of the creation of the FIRO SC and how it operates, and describes the lessons learned through this partnership. Results in the FIRO Preliminary Viability Assessment will be summarized and next steps described.

Strategic Forecasting

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Duus, Henrik Johannsen

2016-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this article is to present an overview of the area of strategic forecasting and its research directions and to put forward some ideas for improving management decisions. Design/methodology/approach: This article is conceptual but also informed by the author’s long contact...... and collaboration with various business firms. It starts by presenting an overview of the area and argues that the area is as much a way of thinking as a toolbox of theories and methodologies. It then spells out a number of research directions and ideas for management. Findings: Strategic forecasting is seen...... as a rebirth of long range planning, albeit with new methods and theories. Firms should make the building of strategic forecasting capability a priority. Research limitations/implications: The article subdivides strategic forecasting into three research avenues and suggests avenues for further research efforts...

Spatial electric load forecasting

CERN Document Server

Willis, H Lee

2002-01-01

Containing 12 new chapters, this second edition contains offers increased-coverage of weather correction and normalization of forecasts, anticipation of redevelopment, determining the validity of announced developments, and minimizing risk from over- or under-planning. It provides specific examples and detailed explanations of key points to consider for both standard and unusual utility forecasting situations, information on new algorithms and concepts in forecasting, a review of forecasting pitfalls and mistakes, case studies depicting challenging forecast environments, and load models illustrating various types of demand.

Multigenerational organisations: a challenge for technology and social change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Millar-Schijf, Carla C.J.M.; Lockett, Martin

2014-01-01

This paper analyses demographic and organisational trends associated with an ageing workforce and introduces the articles in the special issue of Technological Forecasting and Social Change on Ageing2Agility: Multi-stakeholder Technological Forecasting for the Multi-generational Challenges in the

Air Quality Forecasting through Different Statistical and Artificial Intelligence Techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Mishra, D.; Goyal, P.

2014-12-01

Urban air pollution forecasting has emerged as an acute problem in recent years because there are sever environmental degradation due to increase in harmful air pollutants in the ambient atmosphere. In this study, there are different types of statistical as well as artificial intelligence techniques are used for forecasting and analysis of air pollution over Delhi urban area. These techniques are principle component analysis (PCA), multiple linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN) and the forecasting are observed in good agreement with the observed concentrations through Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) at different locations in Delhi. But such methods suffers from disadvantages like they provide limited accuracy as they are unable to predict the extreme points i.e. the pollution maximum and minimum cut-offs cannot be determined using such approach. Also, such methods are inefficient approach for better output forecasting. But with the advancement in technology and research, an alternative to the above traditional methods has been proposed i.e. the coupling of statistical techniques with artificial Intelligence (AI) can be used for forecasting purposes. The coupling of PCA, ANN and fuzzy logic is used for forecasting of air pollutant over Delhi urban area. The statistical measures e.g., correlation coefficient (R), normalized mean square error (NMSE), fractional bias (FB) and index of agreement (IOA) of the proposed model are observed in better agreement with the all other models. Hence, the coupling of statistical and artificial intelligence can be use for the forecasting of air pollutant over urban area.

Forecasting wind-driven wildfires using an inverse modelling approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O. Rios

2014-06-01

Full Text Available A technology able to rapidly forecast wildfire dynamics would lead to a paradigm shift in the response to emergencies, providing the Fire Service with essential information about the ongoing fire. This paper presents and explores a novel methodology to forecast wildfire dynamics in wind-driven conditions, using real-time data assimilation and inverse modelling. The forecasting algorithm combines Rothermel's rate of spread theory with a perimeter expansion model based on Huygens principle and solves the optimisation problem with a tangent linear approach and forward automatic differentiation. Its potential is investigated using synthetic data and evaluated in different wildfire scenarios. The results show the capacity of the method to quickly predict the location of the fire front with a positive lead time (ahead of the event in the order of 10 min for a spatial scale of 100 m. The greatest strengths of our method are lightness, speed and flexibility. We specifically tailor the forecast to be efficient and computationally cheap so it can be used in mobile systems for field deployment and operativeness. Thus, we put emphasis on producing a positive lead time and the means to maximise it.

Analysis of Big Data Maturity Stage in Hospitality Industry

OpenAIRE

Shabani, Neda; Munir, Arslan; Bose, Avishek

2017-01-01

Big data analytics has an extremely significant impact on many areas in all businesses and industries including hospitality. This study aims to guide information technology (IT) professionals in hospitality on their big data expedition. In particular, the purpose of this study is to identify the maturity stage of the big data in hospitality industry in an objective way so that hotels be able to understand their progress, and realize what it will take to get to the next stage of big data matur...

Electricity demand forecasting techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gnanalingam, K.

1994-01-01

Electricity demand forecasting plays an important role in power generation. The two areas of data that have to be forecasted in a power system are peak demand which determines the capacity (MW) of the plant required and annual energy demand (GWH). Methods used in electricity demand forecasting include time trend analysis and econometric methods. In forecasting, identification of manpower demand, identification of key planning factors, decision on planning horizon, differentiation between prediction and projection (i.e. development of different scenarios) and choosing from different forecasting techniques are important

Development of a forecast model for global air traffic emissions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schaefer, Martin

2012-07-01

The thesis describes the methodology and results of a simulation model that quantifies fuel consumption and emissions of civil air traffic. Besides covering historical emissions, the model aims at forecasting emissions in the medium-term future. For this purpose, simulation models of aircraft and engine types are used in combination with a database of global flight movements and assumptions about traffic growth, fleet rollover and operational aspects. Results from an application of the model include emissions of scheduled air traffic for the years 2000 to 2010 as well as forecasted emissions until the year 2030. In a baseline scenario of the forecast, input assumptions (e.g. traffic growth rates) are in line with predictions by the aircraft industry. Considering the effects of advanced technologies of the short-term and medium-term future, the forecast focusses on fuel consumption and emissions of nitric oxides. Calculations for historical air traffic additionally cover emissions of carbon monoxide, unburned hydrocarbons and soot. Results are validated against reference data including studies by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and simulation results from international research projects. (orig.)

Air Pollution Forecasts: An Overview.

Science.gov (United States)

Bai, Lu; Wang, Jianzhou; Ma, Xuejiao; Lu, Haiyan

2018-04-17

Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies.

Air Pollution Forecasts: An Overview

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lu Bai

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies.

Air Pollution Forecasts: An Overview

Science.gov (United States)

Bai, Lu; Wang, Jianzhou; Lu, Haiyan

2018-01-01

Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies. PMID:29673227

Forecast Accuracy Uncertainty and Momentum

OpenAIRE

Bing Han; Dong Hong; Mitch Warachka

2009-01-01

We demonstrate that stock price momentum and earnings momentum can result from uncertainty surrounding the accuracy of cash flow forecasts. Our model has multiple information sources issuing cash flow forecasts for a stock. The investor combines these forecasts into an aggregate cash flow estimate that has minimal mean-squared forecast error. This aggregate estimate weights each cash flow forecast by the estimated accuracy of its issuer, which is obtained from their past forecast errors. Mome...

Forecasting in Complex Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Graves, W. R.; Turcotte, D. L.; Donnellan, A.

2014-12-01

Complex nonlinear systems are typically characterized by many degrees of freedom, as well as interactions between the elements. Interesting examples can be found in the areas of earthquakes and finance. In these two systems, fat tails play an important role in the statistical dynamics. For earthquake systems, the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency is applicable, whereas for daily returns for the securities in the financial markets are known to be characterized by leptokurtotic statistics in which the tails are power law. Very large fluctuations are present in both systems. In earthquake systems, one has the example of great earthquakes such as the M9.1, March 11, 2011 Tohoku event. In financial systems, one has the example of the market crash of October 19, 1987. Both were largely unexpected events that severely impacted the earth and financial systems systemically. Other examples include the M9.3 Andaman earthquake of December 26, 2004, and the Great Recession which began with the fall of Lehman Brothers investment bank on September 12, 2013. Forecasting the occurrence of these damaging events has great societal importance. In recent years, national funding agencies in a variety of countries have emphasized the importance of societal relevance in research, and in particular, the goal of improved forecasting technology. Previous work has shown that both earthquakes and financial crashes can be described by a common Landau-Ginzburg-type free energy model. These metastable systems are characterized by fat tail statistics near the classical spinodal. Correlations in these systems can grow and recede, but do not imply causation, a common source of misunderstanding. In both systems, a common set of techniques can be used to compute the probabilities of future earthquakes or crashes. In this talk, we describe the basic phenomenology of these systems and emphasize their similarities and differences. We also consider the problem of forecast validation and verification

Drought Forecasting with Vegetation Temperature Condition Index Using ARIMA Models in the Guanzhong Plain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Miao Tian

2016-08-01

Full Text Available This paper works on the agricultural drought forecasting in the Guanzhong Plain of China using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA models based on the time series of drought monitoring results of Vegetation Temperature Condition Index (VTCI. About 90 VTCI images derived from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR data were selected to develop the ARIMA models from the erecting stage to the maturity stage of winter wheat (early March to late May in each year at a ten-day interval of the years from 2000 to 2009. We take the study area overlying on the administration map around the study area, and divide the study area into 17 parts where at least one weather station is located in each part. The pixels where the 17 weather stations are located are firstly chosen and studied for their fitting models, and then the best models for all pixels of the whole area are determined. According to the procedures for the models’ development, the selected best models for the 17 pixels are identified and the forecast is done with three steps. The forecasting results of the ARIMA models were compared with the monitoring ones. The results show that with reference to the categorized VTCI drought monitoring results, the categorized forecasting results of the ARIMA models are in good agreement with the monitoring ones. The categorized drought forecasting results of the ARIMA models are more severity in the northeast of the Plain in April 2009, which are in good agreements with the monitoring ones. The absolute errors of the AR(1 models are lower than the SARIMA models, both in the frequency distributions and in the statistic results. However, the ability of SARIMA models to detect the changes of the drought situation is better than the AR(1 models. These results indicate that the ARIMA models can better forecast the category and extent of droughts and can be applied to forecast droughts in the Plain.

Environmental management maturity of local and multinational high-technology corporations located in Brazil: the role of business internationalization in pollution prevention

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giovanna Maialle

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract This paper identifies and characterizes the environmental maturity level of local and multinational high-technology corporations located in Brazil. This characterization is achieved by discussing the adoption of environmental management practices and considering aspects of the productive process stage. An eight-case study was conducted through data triangulation using interviews with employees in diverse organizational areas, direct observations and secondary data. The results indicate the differences in environmental positioning among the studied corporations with a predominance of preventive practices, i.e., an emphasis on eco-efficiency and compliance with legislation. It was also noted that environmental concerns in the corporations are related to internationalization and, in some cases, to the pressure exerted by corporations that represent the brand of the products produced in Brazil. Moreover, the adoption of environmental practices based on the productive process stage supported the environmental maturity classifications of the studied companies.

klax Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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kprc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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katl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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kmcn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kogb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kama Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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ptkk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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kiwa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kavp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kdca Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kbwg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kdfw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kssi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

pahn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ksrq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kpvd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kisp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kttd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

pmdy Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kmgm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

khib Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

pavd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kfar Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kluk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kwwr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

klse Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ksts Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

koth Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kbfl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ksgf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

klch Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kpkb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

krog Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kbjc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ksea Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kbwi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kftw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kpuw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kabq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ksny Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

khio Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

klaf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kfoe Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ksmx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kipt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ktrk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kwmc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

katy Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

tjmz Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kdet Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kcxp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kbur Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

krkd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

pawg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kloz Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kcec Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kdec Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

paor Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kavl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kdrt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kstl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kbfi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

khsv Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

pafa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kekn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

tncm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kith Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kgnv Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ktoi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kgso Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

nstu Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kpbi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kgdv Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kcmx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kdls Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

koaj Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

krhi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kbpk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

khuf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kont Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kyng Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kcwa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kflg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ktup Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ktop Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kink Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

krut Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kbli Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kaoo Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

klit Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

panc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ktcl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

pgwt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kpsp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kbih Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kdnl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kart Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kilm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kpne Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kabi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ptpn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kblf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kosh Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kpdt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kewr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kiso Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kpga Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kbkw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kmyl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

krbg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kril Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ksus Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

padq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kbil Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

krfd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kdug Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ktix Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kcod Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kslk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kgfl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kguc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kmlu Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kbff Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ksmn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kdro Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kmce Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ktpa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kmot Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kcre Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

klws Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kotm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

khqm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kabr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

klal Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kelp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kecg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

khbg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kpbf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

konp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

pkwa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ktvf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

paga Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

khks Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kdsm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kpsm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kgrb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kgmu Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

papg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kbgm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

pamc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

klrd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

ksan Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

patk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kowb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

klru Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kfxe Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kjct Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kcrg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

paaq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kaex Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

klbx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kmia Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kpit Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kcrw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

paen Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kast Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kuin Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kmht Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

krsw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kbpi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kcys Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kflo Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kphx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

pakn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

pabt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

krdg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

khdn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

kjac Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

Robust Approaches to Forecasting

OpenAIRE

Jennifer Castle; David Hendry; Michael P. Clements

2014-01-01

We investigate alternative robust approaches to forecasting, using a new class of robust devices, contrasted with equilibrium correction models. Their forecasting properties are derived facing a range of likely empirical problems at the forecast origin, including measurement errors, implulses, omitted variables, unanticipated location shifts and incorrectly included variables that experience a shift. We derive the resulting forecast biases and error variances, and indicate when the methods ar...

Starting Up a Company in a Mature Market: Wise or Foolish ?

Science.gov (United States)

Biberger, Maximilian

SDCmaterials, Inc. (SDC) is a venture backed, mature start up in the automotive sector. Moreover: Catalytic Converters for vehicles and stationary applications. The company has invented and developed environmentally friendly, novel materials as well as material integration techniques for catalytic converters based on a proprietary and patented nanotechnology. Traditionally catalysts require large amounts of PGMs (Platinum Group Metals), more than USD 10B per year, in order to treat vehicle emissions. Due to that, the catalytic converter is the single most expensive piece part in a vehicle. The currently used technologies have served the industry well. However, as emission standards dramatically tighten, particularly in China, the demand for more fuel efficient and Hybrid vehicles increases, this technology begins to start showing limitations as it can meet the aforementioned demands only by increasing the PGM amount per vehicle. This in turn will increase the cost per vehicle and / or reduce margins for the automotive industry, and in addition to that impact the environment negatively. In contrast to existing technologies, the SDC based technology can meet future emission goals by maintaining, or even reducing, the PGM amount required to treat exhaust emissions. This results in tremendous savings for the consumer and the automotive industry, as well as a significantly better stewardship of natural resources and clean manufacturing. In the present paper the pros and cons of starting a nanotechnology company in a mature market are presented. Both from a business & economics, as well as from a technology point of view. The case is made that it is possible to start a company in a mature market and that novel technologies can compete economically with 40+ old year technologies.

Ethical issues in forecasting of natural hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Tinti, Stefano

2014-05-01

Natural hazards have by definition a large impact on the society and, therefore, since the beginning of science one of the major aspiration of mankind has been the prediction of natural calamities in the attempt to avoid or to mitigate their effects. In modern societies where science and technology have gained a foundational role, forecasts and predictions have become part of the every-day life and may also influence state policies and economic development. And in parallel with the growing importance of forecasting, even ethical problems for forecasters and for forecasters communities have started to appear. In this work two of the many geo-ethical issues are considered mostly: 1) how to cope with uncertainties that are inherently associated with any forecast statement; 2) how to handle predictions in scientific journals and scientific conferences The former issue is mainly related to the impact of predictions on the general public and on managers and operators in the civil protection field. Forecasters operate in specific contexts that 1) may change from country to country, depending on the local adopted best practices, but also, which is more constraining, on the local legal regulations and laws; 2) may change from discipline to discipline according to the development of the specific knowhow and the range of the forecast (from minutes to centuries) The second issue has to do with the communication of the scientific results on predictions and on prediction methods to the audience mainly composed of scientists, and involves one of the basic elements of science. In principle, scientists should use scientific communication means (papers in scientific journals, conferences, …) to illustrate results that are sound and certain, or the methods by means of which they conduct their research. But scientists involved in predictions have inherently to do with uncertainties, and, since there is no common agreement on how to deal with them, there is the risk that scientific

Improving Operational Risk Management Using Business Performance Management Technologies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bram Pieket Weeserik

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Operational Risk Management (ORM comprises the continuous management of risks resulting from: human actions, internal processes, systems, and external events. With increasing requirements, complexity and a growing volume of risks, information systems provide benefits for integrating risk management activities and optimizing performance. Business Performance Management (BPM technologies are believed to provide a solution for effective Operational Risk Management by offering several combined technologies including: work flow, data warehousing, (advanced analytics, reporting and dashboards. BPM technologies can be integrated with an organization’s Planning & Control cycle and related to strategic objectives. This manuscript aims to show how ORM can benefit from BPM technologies via the development and practical validation of a new maturity model. The B4ORM maturity model was developed following the Design Science Research approach. The maturity model relates specific maturity levels of ORM processes with BPM technologies applicable for a specific maturity stage. There appears to be a strong relationship (0.78 with ORM process maturity and supporting BPM technologies. The B4ORM maturity model as described in this manuscript provides an ideal path of BPM technologies related to six distinctive stages of ORM, leading towards technologies suitable for continuous improvement of ORM processes and organization-wide integration.

Inaccuracy in traffic forecasts

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Flyvbjerg, Bent; Holm, Mette K. Skamris; Buhl, Søren Ladegaard

2006-01-01

This paper presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 210 projects in 14 nations worth US$58 billion. The study shows with very high statistical significance...... that forecasters generally do a poor job of estimating the demand for transportation infrastructure projects. The result is substantial downside financial and economic risk. Forecasts have not become more accurate over the 30-year period studied. If techniques and skills for arriving at accurate demand forecasts...... forecasting. Highly inaccurate traffic forecasts combined with large standard deviations translate into large financial and economic risks. But such risks are typically ignored or downplayed by planners and decision-makers, to the detriment of social and economic welfare. The paper presents the data...

Comparative transcriptome analyses of a late-maturing mandarin mutant and its original cultivar reveals gene expression profiling associated with citrus fruit maturation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lu Wang

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Characteristics of late maturity in fruit are good agronomic traits for extending the harvest period and marketing time. However, underlying molecular basis of the late-maturing mechanism in fruit is largely unknown. In this study, RNA sequencing (RNA-Seq technology was used to identify differentially expressed genes (DEGs related to late-maturing characteristics from a late-maturing mutant ‘Huawan Wuzishatangju’ (HWWZSTJ (Citrus reticulata Blanco and its original line ‘Wuzishatangju’ (WZSTJ. A total of approximately 17.0 Gb and 84.2 M paried-end reads were obtained. DEGs were significantly enriched in the pathway of photosynthesis, phenylpropanoid biosynthesis, carotenoid biosynthesis, chlorophyll and abscisic acid (ABA metabolism. Thirteen candidate transcripts related to chlorophyll metabolism, carotenoid biosynthesis and ABA metabolism were analyzed using real-time quantitative PCR (qPCR at all fruit maturing stages of HWWZSTJ and WZSTJ. Chlorophyllase (CLH and divinyl reductase (DVR from chlorophyll metabolism, phytoene synthase (PSY and capsanthin/capsorubin synthase (CCS from carotenoid biosynthesis, and abscisic acid 8′-hydroxylase (AB1 and 9-cis-epoxycarotenoid dioxygenase (NCED1 from ABA metabolism were cloned and analyzed. The expression pattern of NCED1 indicated its role in the late-maturing characteristics of HWWZSTJ. There were 270 consecutive bases missing in HWWZSTJ in comparison with full-length sequences of NCED1 cDNA from WZSTJ. Those results suggested that NCED1 might play an important role in the late maturity of HWWZSTJ. This study provides new information on complex process that results in the late maturity of Citrus fruit at the transcriptional level.

A New Empirical Model for Short-Term Forecasting of the Broadband Penetration: A Short Research in Greece

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Salpasaranis Konstantinos

2011-01-01

Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to present a short research about the overall broadband penetration in Greece. In this research, a new empirical deterministic model is proposed for the short-term forecast of the cumulative broadband adoption. The fitting performance of the model is compared with some widely used diffusion models for the cumulative adoption of new telecommunication products, namely, Logistic, Gompertz, Flexible Logistic (FLOG, Box-Cox, Richards, and Bass models. The fitting process is done with broadband penetration official data for Greece. In conclusion, comparing these models with the empirical model, it could be argued that the latter yields well enough statistics indicators for fitting and forecasting performance. It also stresses the need for further research and performance analysis of the model in other more mature broadband markets.

Maturity group classification and maturity locus genotyping of early-maturing soybean varieties from high-latitude cold regions.

Science.gov (United States)

Jia, Hongchang; Jiang, Bingjun; Wu, Cunxiang; Lu, Wencheng; Hou, Wensheng; Sun, Shi; Yan, Hongrui; Han, Tianfu

2014-01-01

With the migration of human beings, advances of agricultural sciences, evolution of planting patterns and global warming, soybeans have expanded to both tropical and high-latitude cold regions (HCRs). Unlike other regions, HCRs have much more significant and diverse photoperiods and temperature conditions over seasons or across latitudes, and HCR soybeans released there show rich diversity in maturity traits. However, HCR soybeans have not been as well classified into maturity groups (MGs) as other places. Therefore, it is necessary to identify MGs in HCRs and to genotype the maturity loci. Local varieties were collected from the northern part of Northeast China and the far-eastern region of Russia. Maturity group reference (MGR) soybeans of MGs MG000, MG00, and MG0 were used as references during field experiments. Both local varieties and MGR soybeans were planted for two years (2010-2011) in Heihe (N 50°15', E 127°27', H 168.5 m), China. The days to VE (emergence), R1 (beginning bloom) and R7 (beginning maturity) were recorded and statistically analyzed. Furthermore, some varieties were further genotyped at four molecularly-identified maturity loci E1, E2, E3 and E4. The HCR varieties were classified into MG0 or even more early-maturing. In Heihe, some varieties matured much earlier than MG000, which is the most early-maturing known MG, and clustered into a separate group. We designated the group as MG0000, following the convention of MGs. HCR soybeans had relatively stable days to beginning bloom from emergence. The HCR varieties diversified into genotypes of E1, E2, E3 and E4. These loci had different effects on maturity. HCRs diversify early-maturing MGs of soybean. MG0000, a new MG that matures much earlier than known MGs, was developed. HCR soybean breeding should focus more on shortening post-flowering reproductive growth. E1, E2, E3, and E4 function differentially.

An impact analysis of forecasting methods and forecasting parameters on bullwhip effect

Science.gov (United States)

Silitonga, R. Y. H.; Jelly, N.

2018-04-01

Bullwhip effect is an increase of variance of demand fluctuation from downstream to upstream of supply chain. Forecasting methods and forecasting parameters were recognized as some factors that affect bullwhip phenomena. To study these factors, we can develop simulations. There are several ways to simulate bullwhip effect in previous studies, such as mathematical equation modelling, information control modelling, computer program, and many more. In this study a spreadsheet program named Bullwhip Explorer was used to simulate bullwhip effect. Several scenarios were developed to show the change in bullwhip effect ratio because of the difference in forecasting methods and forecasting parameters. Forecasting methods used were mean demand, moving average, exponential smoothing, demand signalling, and minimum expected mean squared error. Forecasting parameters were moving average period, smoothing parameter, signalling factor, and safety stock factor. It showed that decreasing moving average period, increasing smoothing parameter, increasing signalling factor can create bigger bullwhip effect ratio. Meanwhile, safety stock factor had no impact to bullwhip effect.

NBIC-TECHNOLOGIES GET OVER ECONOMIC DEPRESSION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. A. Akaev

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This paper is reflecting results of forecasting scenario of economic growth and shown that NBIC-technologies, due to the powerful synergetic effect generating by a mutual convergence of nano-, bio-, info- and cognitive technologies, will give strong acceleration pace of technological progress, which exceeded the rate achieved in the previous upward wave of 5th great Kondratieff ’s economic cycle (1982–2006. On the base of theUSAeconomy data, the results of forecasting shows that the rate of technological progress will increase from 2,2% in 1980 to 3,5% in the 2030 s. 

Forecasting experiments of a dynamical-statistical model of the sea surface temperature anomaly field based on the improved self-memorization principle

Science.gov (United States)

Hong, Mei; Chen, Xi; Zhang, Ren; Wang, Dong; Shen, Shuanghe; Singh, Vijay P.

2018-04-01

With the objective of tackling the problem of inaccurate long-term El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts, this paper develops a new dynamical-statistical forecast model of the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) field. To avoid single initial prediction values, a self-memorization principle is introduced to improve the dynamical reconstruction model, thus making the model more appropriate for describing such chaotic systems as ENSO events. The improved dynamical-statistical model of the SSTA field is used to predict SSTA in the equatorial eastern Pacific and during El Niño and La Niña events. The long-term step-by-step forecast results and cross-validated retroactive hindcast results of time series T1 and T2 are found to be satisfactory, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of approximately 0.80 and a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of less than 15 %. The corresponding forecast SSTA field is accurate in that not only is the forecast shape similar to the actual field but also the contour lines are essentially the same. This model can also be used to forecast the ENSO index. The temporal correlation coefficient is 0.8062, and the MAPE value of 19.55 % is small. The difference between forecast results in spring and those in autumn is not high, indicating that the improved model can overcome the spring predictability barrier to some extent. Compared with six mature models published previously, the present model has an advantage in prediction precision and length, and is a novel exploration of the ENSO forecast method.

Prediction and error growth in the daily forecast of precipitation from the NCEP CFSv2 over the subdivisions of Indian subcontinent

Science.gov (United States)

Pandey, Dhruva Kumar; Rai, Shailendra; Sahai, A. K.; Abhilash, S.; Shahi, N. K.

2016-02-01

This study investigates the forecast skill and predictability of various indices of south Asian monsoon as well as the subdivisions of the Indian subcontinent during JJAS season for the time domain of 2001-2013 using NCEP CFSv2 output. It has been observed that the daily mean climatology of precipitation over the land points of India is underestimated in the model forecast as compared to observation. The monthly model bias of precipitation shows the dry bias over the land points of India and also over the Bay of Bengal, whereas the Himalayan and Arabian Sea regions show the wet bias. We have divided the Indian landmass into five subdivisions namely central India, southern India, Western Ghat, northeast and southern Bay of Bengal regions based on the spatial variation of observed mean precipitation in JJAS season. The underestimation over the land points of India during mature phase was originated from the central India, southern Bay of Bengal, southern India and Western Ghat regions. The error growth in June forecast is slower as compared to July forecast in all the regions. The predictability error also grows slowly in June forecast as compared to July forecast in most of the regions. The doubling time of predictability error was estimated to be in the range of 3-5 days for all the regions. Southern India and Western Ghats are more predictable in the July forecast as compared to June forecast, whereas IMR, northeast, central India and southern Bay of Bengal regions have the opposite nature.

Applied Semantic Web Technologies

CERN Document Server

Sugumaran, Vijayan

2011-01-01

The rapid advancement of semantic web technologies, along with the fact that they are at various levels of maturity, has left many practitioners confused about the current state of these technologies. Focusing on the most mature technologies, Applied Semantic Web Technologies integrates theory with case studies to illustrate the history, current state, and future direction of the semantic web. It maintains an emphasis on real-world applications and examines the technical and practical issues related to the use of semantic technologies in intelligent information management. The book starts with

The relation between maturity and sophistication shall be properly dealt with in nuclear power development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Yongjiang

2009-01-01

The paper analyses the advantages and disadvantages of the second generation improved technologies and third generation technologies mainly developed in China in terms of safety and economy. The paper also discusses the maturity of the second generation improved technologies and the sophistication of the third generation technologies respectively. Meanwhile, the paper proposes that the advantage and disadvantage of second generation improved technologies and third generation technologies should be carefully taken into consideration and the relationship between the maturity and sophistication should be properly dealt with in the current stage. A two-step strategy shall be taken as a solution to solve the problem of insufficient capacity of nuclear power, trace and develop the third generation technologies, so as to ensure the sound and fast development of nuclear power. (authors)

Forecasting in Planning

OpenAIRE

Ike, P.; Voogd, Henk; Voogd, Henk; Linden, Gerard

2004-01-01

This chapter begins with a discussion of qualitative forecasting by describing a number of methods that depend on judgements made by stakeholders, experts or other interested parties to arrive at forecasts. Two qualitative approaches are illuminated, the Delphi and scenario methods respectively. Quantitative forecasting is illustrated with a brief overview of time series methods. Both qualitative and quantitative methods are illustrated by an example. The role and relative importance of forec...

A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ross, M. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States)]|[Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics]|[Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.; Hwang, R. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States)

1992-02-01

The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model`s parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ross, M. (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States) Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.); Hwang, R. (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States))

1992-02-01

The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model's parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

Rover Technologies

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Develop and mature rover technologies supporting robotic exploration including rover design, controlling rovers over time delay and for exploring . Technology...

Forecasting and management of technology

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Roper, A. T

2011-01-01

"The new, revised edition of this book will build on this knowledge in the context of business organizations that now place a greater emphasis on technology to stay on the cutting edge of development...

Evaluation of Statistical Methods for Modeling Historical Resource Production and Forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Nanzad, Bolorchimeg

This master's thesis project consists of two parts. Part I of the project compares modeling of historical resource production and forecasting of future production trends using the logit/probit transform advocated by Rutledge (2011) with conventional Hubbert curve fitting, using global coal production as a case study. The conventional Hubbert/Gaussian method fits a curve to historical production data whereas a logit/probit transform uses a linear fit to a subset of transformed production data. Within the errors and limitations inherent in this type of statistical modeling, these methods provide comparable results. That is, despite that apparent goodness-of-fit achievable using the Logit/Probit methodology, neither approach provides a significant advantage over the other in either explaining the observed data or in making future projections. For mature production regions, those that have already substantially passed peak production, results obtained by either method are closely comparable and reasonable, and estimates of ultimately recoverable resources obtained by either method are consistent with geologically estimated reserves. In contrast, for immature regions, estimates of ultimately recoverable resources generated by either of these alternative methods are unstable and thus, need to be used with caution. Although the logit/probit transform generates high quality-of-fit correspondence with historical production data, this approach provides no new information compared to conventional Gaussian or Hubbert-type models and may have the effect of masking the noise and/or instability in the data and the derived fits. In particular, production forecasts for immature or marginally mature production systems based on either method need to be regarded with considerable caution. Part II of the project investigates the utility of a novel alternative method for multicyclic Hubbert modeling tentatively termed "cycle-jumping" wherein overlap of multiple cycles is limited. The

Ensemble Forecasts with Useful Skill-Spread Relationships for African meningitis and Asia Streamflow Forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Hopson, T. M.

2014-12-01

One potential benefit of an ensemble prediction system (EPS) is its capacity to forecast its own forecast error through the ensemble spread-error relationship. In practice, an EPS is often quite limited in its ability to represent the variable expectation of forecast error through the variable dispersion of the ensemble, and perhaps more fundamentally, in its ability to provide enough variability in the ensembles dispersion to make the skill-spread relationship even potentially useful (irrespective of whether the EPS is well-calibrated or not). In this paper we examine the ensemble skill-spread relationship of an ensemble constructed from the TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) dataset of global forecasts and a combination of multi-model and post-processing approaches. Both of the multi-model and post-processing techniques are based on quantile regression (QR) under a step-wise forward selection framework leading to ensemble forecasts with both good reliability and sharpness. The methodology utilizes the ensemble's ability to self-diagnose forecast instability to produce calibrated forecasts with informative skill-spread relationships. A context for these concepts is provided by assessing the constructed ensemble in forecasting district-level humidity impacting the incidence of meningitis in the meningitis belt of Africa, and in forecasting flooding events in the Brahmaputra and Ganges basins of South Asia.

Uncertainty Assessment: Reservoir Inflow Forecasting with Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts and HEC-HMS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sheng-Chi Yang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available During an extreme event, having accurate inflow forecasting with enough lead time helps reservoir operators decrease the impact of floods downstream. Furthermore, being able to efficiently operate reservoirs could help maximize flood protection while saving water for drier times of the year. This study combines ensemble quantitative precipitation forecasts and a hydrological model to provide a 3-day reservoir inflow in the Shihmen Reservoir, Taiwan. A total of six historical typhoons were used for model calibration, validation, and application. An understanding of cascaded uncertainties from the numerical weather model through the hydrological model is necessary for a better use for forecasting. This study thus conducted an assessment of forecast uncertainty on magnitude and timing of peak and cumulative inflows. It found that using the ensemble-mean had less uncertainty than randomly selecting individual member. The inflow forecasts with shorter length of cumulative time had a higher uncertainty. The results showed that using the ensemble precipitation forecasts with the hydrological model would have the advantage of extra lead time and serve as a valuable reference for operating reservoirs.

Using Temperature Forecasts to Improve Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts in the Colorado and Rio Grande Basins

Science.gov (United States)

Lehner, F.; Wood, A.; Llewellyn, D.; Blatchford, D. B.; Goodbody, A. G.; Pappenberger, F.

2017-12-01

Recent studies have documented the influence of increasing temperature on streamflow across the American West, including snow-melt driven rivers such as the Colorado or Rio Grande. At the same time, some basins are reporting decreasing skill in seasonal streamflow forecasts, termed water supply forecasts (WSFs), over the recent decade. While the skill in seasonal precipitation forecasts from dynamical models remains low, their skill in predicting seasonal temperature variations could potentially be harvested for WSFs to account for non-stationarity in regional temperatures. Here, we investigate whether WSF skill can be improved by incorporating seasonal temperature forecasts from dynamical forecasting models (from the North American Multi Model Ensemble and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast System 4) into traditional statistical forecast models. We find improved streamflow forecast skill relative to traditional WSF approaches in a majority of headwater locations in the Colorado and Rio Grande basins. Incorporation of temperature into WSFs thus provides a promising avenue to increase the robustness of current forecasting techniques in the face of continued regional warming.

Forecasting skills of the ensemble hydro-meteorological system for the Po river floods

Science.gov (United States)

Ricciardi, Giuseppe; Montani, Andrea; Paccagnella, Tiziana; Pecora, Silvano; Tonelli, Fabrizio

2013-04-01

The Po basin is the largest and most economically important river-basin in Italy. Extreme hydrological events, including floods, flash floods and droughts, are expected to become more severe in the next future due to climate change, and related ground effects are linked both with environmental and social resilience. A Warning Operational Center (WOC) for hydrological event management was created in Emilia Romagna region. In the last years, the WOC faced challenges in legislation, organization, technology and economics, achieving improvements in forecasting skill and information dissemination. Since 2005, an operational forecasting and modelling system for flood modelling and forecasting has been implemented, aimed at supporting and coordinating flood control and emergency management on the whole Po basin. This system, referred to as FEWSPo, has also taken care of environmental aspects of flood forecast. The FEWSPo system has reached a very high level of complexity, due to the combination of three different hydrological-hydraulic chains (HEC-HMS/RAS - MIKE11 NAM/HD, Topkapi/Sobek), with several meteorological inputs (forecasted - COSMOI2, COSMOI7, COSMO-LEPS among others - and observed). In this hydrological and meteorological ensemble the management of the relative predictive uncertainties, which have to be established and communicated to decision makers, is a debated scientific and social challenge. Real time activities face professional, modelling and technological aspects but are also strongly interrelated with organization and human aspects. The authors will report a case study using the operational flood forecast hydro-meteorological ensemble, provided by the MIKE11 chain fed by COSMO_LEPS EQPF. The basic aim of the proposed approach is to analyse limits and opportunities of the long term forecast (with a lead time ranging from 3 to 5 days), for the implementation of low cost actions, also looking for a well informed decision making and the improvement of

About the National Forecast Chart

Science.gov (United States)

code. Press enter or select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" or Prediction Center on Twitter NCEP Quarterly Newsletter WPC Home Analyses and Forecasts National Forecast to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services. The National Forecast Charts

Short-term natural gas consumption forecasting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Potocnik, P.; Govekar, E.; Grabec, I.

2007-01-01

Energy forecasting requirements for Slovenia's natural gas market were investigated along with the cycles of natural gas consumption. This paper presented a short-term natural gas forecasting approach where the daily, weekly and yearly gas consumption were analyzed and the information obtained was incorporated into the forecasting model for hourly forecasting for the next day. The natural gas market depends on forecasting in order to optimize the leasing of storage capacities. As such, natural gas distribution companies have an economic incentive to accurately forecast their future gas consumption. The authors proposed a forecasting model with the following properties: two submodels for the winter and summer seasons; input variables including past consumption data, weather data, weather forecasts and basic cycle indexes; and, a hierarchical forecasting structure in which a daily model was used as the basis, with the hourly forecast obtained by modeling the relative daily profile. This proposed method was illustrated by a forecasting example for Slovenia's natural gas market. 11 refs., 11 figs

Using Bayes Model Averaging for Wind Power Forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Preede Revheim, Pål; Beyer, Hans Georg

2014-05-01

does not contain information, but it has the disadvantage of nearly doubling the number of model parameters to be estimated. Second, the BMA procedure is run with group mean wind power as the response variable instead of group mean wind speed. This also solves the problem with longer consecutive periods without information in the input data, but it leaves the power curve to also be estimated from the data. [1] Raftery, A. E., et al. (2005). Using Bayesian Model Averaging to Calibrate Forecast Ensembles. Monthly Weather Review, 133, 1155-1174. [2]Revheim, P. P. and H. G. Beyer (2013). Using Bayesian Model Averaging for wind farm group forecasts. EWEA Wind Power Forecasting Technology Workshop,Rotterdam, 4-5 December 2013. [3]Sloughter, J. M., T. Gneiting and A. E. Raftery (2010). Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting Using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging. Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 105, No. 489, 25-35

Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

2010-03-18

Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

Assessing the need for better forecasting and observability of pv

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Alet, Pierre-Jean; Efthymiou, Venizelos; Graditi, Giorgio

2017-01-01

In its review of the challenges and opportunities associated with massive deployment of solar PV generation, the Grid integration working group of the ETIP PV identified forecasting and observability as critical technologies for the planning and operation of the power system with large PV...... penetration. In this white paper ETIP PV set out to spell out in more details what features are needed from these technologies and what is the state of the art....

Using Adaptive Neural-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS for Demand Forecasting and an Application

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Onur Doğan

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Due to the rapid increase in global competition among organizations and companies, rational approaches in decision making have become indispensable for organizations in today’s world. Establishing a safe and robust path through uncertainties and risks depends on the decision units’ ability of using scientific methods as well as technology. Demand forecasting is known to be one of the most critical problems in organizations.  A company which supports its demand forecasting mechanism with scientific methodologies could increase its productivity and efficiency in all other functions. New methods, such as fuzzy logic and artificial neural networks are frequently being used as a decision-making mechanism in organizations and companies recently.  In this study, it is aimed to solve a critical demand forecasting problem with ANFIS. In the first phase of the study, the factors which impact demand forecasting are determined, and then a database of the model is established using these factors. It has been shown that ANFIS could be used for demand forecasting.

State of the art and taxonomy of prognostics approaches, trends of prognostics applications and open issues towards maturity at different technology readiness levels

Science.gov (United States)

Javed, Kamran; Gouriveau, Rafael; Zerhouni, Noureddine

2017-09-01

Integrating prognostics to a real application requires a certain maturity level and for this reason there is a lack of success stories about development of a complete Prognostics and Health Management system. In fact, the maturity of prognostics is closely linked to data and domain specific entities like modeling. Basically, prognostics task aims at predicting the degradation of engineering assets. However, practically it is not possible to precisely predict the impending failure, which requires a thorough understanding to encounter different sources of uncertainty that affect prognostics. Therefore, different aspects crucial to the prognostics framework, i.e., from monitoring data to remaining useful life of equipment need to be addressed. To this aim, the paper contributes to state of the art and taxonomy of prognostics approaches and their application perspectives. In addition, factors for prognostics approach selection are identified, and new case studies from component-system level are discussed. Moreover, open challenges toward maturity of the prognostics under uncertainty are highlighted and scheme for an efficient prognostics approach is presented. Finally, the existing challenges for verification and validation of prognostics at different technology readiness levels are discussed with respect to open challenges.

Space Weather Forecasting at IZMIRAN

Science.gov (United States)

Gaidash, S. P.; Belov, A. V.; Abunina, M. A.; Abunin, A. A.

2017-12-01

Since 1998, the Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radio Wave Propagation (IZMIRAN) has had an operating heliogeophysical service—the Center for Space Weather Forecasts. This center transfers the results of basic research in solar-terrestrial physics into daily forecasting of various space weather parameters for various lead times. The forecasts are promptly available to interested consumers. This article describes the center and the main types of forecasts it provides: solar and geomagnetic activity, magnetospheric electron fluxes, and probabilities of proton increases. The challenges associated with the forecasting of effects of coronal mass ejections and coronal holes are discussed. Verification data are provided for the center's forecasts.

A Study of the Factors Associated with Successful Technology Transfer and their Applicability to Air Force Technology Transfers.

Science.gov (United States)

1995-09-01

transfer project. (D) 8a Organization has a technology transfer organization. (D,A) 10a Marketing and advertising of technologies targeted to relevant...Entrepreneurial (D) Developer: 10A: Marketing and advertising of technologies targeted to relevant industries. Most developers indicate that they marketed...regard to marketing and advertising . 10B: Technology maturation supported by internal units or by contracting out. Technology maturation is the

Real-time forecasts of flood hazard and impact: some UK experiences

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cole Steven J.

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Major UK floods over the last decade have motivated significant technological and scientific advances in operational flood forecasting and warning. New joint forecasting centres between the national hydrological and meteorological operating agencies have been formed that issue a daily, national Flood Guidance Statement (FGS to the emergency response community. The FGS is based on a Flood Risk Matrix approach that is a function of potential impact severity and likelihood. It has driven an increased demand for robust, accurate and timely forecast and alert information on fluvial and surface water flooding along with impact assessments. The Grid-to-Grid (G2G distributed hydrological model has been employed across Britain at a 1km resolution to support the FGS. Novel methods for linking dynamic gridded estimates of river flow and surface runoff with more detailed offline flood risk maps have been developed to obtain real-time probabilistic forecasts of potential impacts, leading to operational trials. Examples of the national-scale G2G application are provided along with case studies of forecast flood impact from (i an operational Surface Water Flooding (SWF trial during the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games, (ii SWF developments under the Natural Hazards Partnership over England & Wales, and (iii fluvial applications in Scotland.

Sensor network based solar forecasting using a local vector autoregressive ridge framework

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Xu, J. [Stony Brook Univ., NY (United States); Yoo, S. [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Heiser, J. [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States); Kalb, P. [Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL), Upton, NY (United States)

2016-04-04

The significant improvements and falling costs of photovoltaic (PV) technology make solar energy a promising resource, yet the cloud induced variability of surface solar irradiance inhibits its effective use in grid-tied PV generation. Short-term irradiance forecasting, especially on the minute scale, is critically important for grid system stability and auxiliary power source management. Compared to the trending sky imaging devices, irradiance sensors are inexpensive and easy to deploy but related forecasting methods have not been well researched. The prominent challenge of applying classic time series models on a network of irradiance sensors is to address their varying spatio-temporal correlations due to local changes in cloud conditions. We propose a local vector autoregressive framework with ridge regularization to forecast irradiance without explicitly determining the wind field or cloud movement. By using local training data, our learned forecast model is adaptive to local cloud conditions and by using regularization, we overcome the risk of overfitting from the limited training data. Our systematic experimental results showed an average of 19.7% RMSE and 20.2% MAE improvement over the benchmark Persistent Model for 1-5 minute forecasts on a comprehensive 25-day dataset.

A hybrid sales forecasting scheme by combining independent component analysis with K-means clustering and support vector regression.

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Chi-Jie; Chang, Chi-Chang

2014-01-01

Sales forecasting plays an important role in operating a business since it can be used to determine the required inventory level to meet consumer demand and avoid the problem of under/overstocking. Improving the accuracy of sales forecasting has become an important issue of operating a business. This study proposes a hybrid sales forecasting scheme by combining independent component analysis (ICA) with K-means clustering and support vector regression (SVR). The proposed scheme first uses the ICA to extract hidden information from the observed sales data. The extracted features are then applied to K-means algorithm for clustering the sales data into several disjoined clusters. Finally, the SVR forecasting models are applied to each group to generate final forecasting results. Experimental results from information technology (IT) product agent sales data reveal that the proposed sales forecasting scheme outperforms the three comparison models and hence provides an efficient alternative for sales forecasting.

Bayesian flood forecasting methods: A review

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Shasha; Coulibaly, Paulin

2017-08-01

Over the past few decades, floods have been seen as one of the most common and largely distributed natural disasters in the world. If floods could be accurately forecasted in advance, then their negative impacts could be greatly minimized. It is widely recognized that quantification and reduction of uncertainty associated with the hydrologic forecast is of great importance for flood estimation and rational decision making. Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) offers an ideal theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification that can be developed for probabilistic flood forecasting via any deterministic hydrologic model. It provides suitable theoretical structure, empirically validated models and reasonable analytic-numerical computation method, and can be developed into various Bayesian forecasting approaches. This paper presents a comprehensive review on Bayesian forecasting approaches applied in flood forecasting from 1999 till now. The review starts with an overview of fundamentals of BFS and recent advances in BFS, followed with BFS application in river stage forecasting and real-time flood forecasting, then move to a critical analysis by evaluating advantages and limitations of Bayesian forecasting methods and other predictive uncertainty assessment approaches in flood forecasting, and finally discusses the future research direction in Bayesian flood forecasting. Results show that the Bayesian flood forecasting approach is an effective and advanced way for flood estimation, it considers all sources of uncertainties and produces a predictive distribution of the river stage, river discharge or runoff, thus gives more accurate and reliable flood forecasts. Some emerging Bayesian forecasting methods (e.g. ensemble Bayesian forecasting system, Bayesian multi-model combination) were shown to overcome limitations of single model or fixed model weight and effectively reduce predictive uncertainty. In recent years, various Bayesian flood forecasting approaches have been

Bayesian analyses of seasonal runoff forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Krzysztofowicz, R.; Reese, S.

1991-12-01

Forecasts of seasonal snowmelt runoff volume provide indispensable information for rational decision making by water project operators, irrigation district managers, and farmers in the western United States. Bayesian statistical models and communication frames have been researched in order to enhance the forecast information disseminated to the users, and to characterize forecast skill from the decision maker's point of view. Four products are presented: (i) a Bayesian Processor of Forecasts, which provides a statistical filter for calibrating the forecasts, and a procedure for estimating the posterior probability distribution of the seasonal runoff; (ii) the Bayesian Correlation Score, a new measure of forecast skill, which is related monotonically to the ex ante economic value of forecasts for decision making; (iii) a statistical predictor of monthly cumulative runoffs within the snowmelt season, conditional on the total seasonal runoff forecast; and (iv) a framing of the forecast message that conveys the uncertainty associated with the forecast estimates to the users. All analyses are illustrated with numerical examples of forecasts for six gauging stations from the period 1971 1988.

Applying Different Independent Component Analysis Algorithms and Support Vector Regression for IT Chain Store Sales Forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Dai, Wensheng

2014-01-01

Sales forecasting is one of the most important issues in managing information technology (IT) chain store sales since an IT chain store has many branches. Integrating feature extraction method and prediction tool, such as support vector regression (SVR), is a useful method for constructing an effective sales forecasting scheme. Independent component analysis (ICA) is a novel feature extraction technique and has been widely applied to deal with various forecasting problems. But, up to now, only the basic ICA method (i.e., temporal ICA model) was applied to sale forecasting problem. In this paper, we utilize three different ICA methods including spatial ICA (sICA), temporal ICA (tICA), and spatiotemporal ICA (stICA) to extract features from the sales data and compare their performance in sales forecasting of IT chain store. Experimental results from a real sales data show that the sales forecasting scheme by integrating stICA and SVR outperforms the comparison models in terms of forecasting error. The stICA is a promising tool for extracting effective features from branch sales data and the extracted features can improve the prediction performance of SVR for sales forecasting. PMID:25165740

Applying different independent component analysis algorithms and support vector regression for IT chain store sales forecasting.

Science.gov (United States)

Dai, Wensheng; Wu, Jui-Yu; Lu, Chi-Jie

2014-01-01

Sales forecasting is one of the most important issues in managing information technology (IT) chain store sales since an IT chain store has many branches. Integrating feature extraction method and prediction tool, such as support vector regression (SVR), is a useful method for constructing an effective sales forecasting scheme. Independent component analysis (ICA) is a novel feature extraction technique and has been widely applied to deal with various forecasting problems. But, up to now, only the basic ICA method (i.e., temporal ICA model) was applied to sale forecasting problem. In this paper, we utilize three different ICA methods including spatial ICA (sICA), temporal ICA (tICA), and spatiotemporal ICA (stICA) to extract features from the sales data and compare their performance in sales forecasting of IT chain store. Experimental results from a real sales data show that the sales forecasting scheme by integrating stICA and SVR outperforms the comparison models in terms of forecasting error. The stICA is a promising tool for extracting effective features from branch sales data and the extracted features can improve the prediction performance of SVR for sales forecasting.

Applying Different Independent Component Analysis Algorithms and Support Vector Regression for IT Chain Store Sales Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wensheng Dai

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Sales forecasting is one of the most important issues in managing information technology (IT chain store sales since an IT chain store has many branches. Integrating feature extraction method and prediction tool, such as support vector regression (SVR, is a useful method for constructing an effective sales forecasting scheme. Independent component analysis (ICA is a novel feature extraction technique and has been widely applied to deal with various forecasting problems. But, up to now, only the basic ICA method (i.e., temporal ICA model was applied to sale forecasting problem. In this paper, we utilize three different ICA methods including spatial ICA (sICA, temporal ICA (tICA, and spatiotemporal ICA (stICA to extract features from the sales data and compare their performance in sales forecasting of IT chain store. Experimental results from a real sales data show that the sales forecasting scheme by integrating stICA and SVR outperforms the comparison models in terms of forecasting error. The stICA is a promising tool for extracting effective features from branch sales data and the extracted features can improve the prediction performance of SVR for sales forecasting.

On forecasting ionospheric total electron content responses to high-speed solar wind streams

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Meng Xing

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Conditions in the ionosphere have become increasingly important to forecast, since more and more spaceborne and ground-based technological systems rely on ionospheric weather. Here we explore the feasibility of ionospheric forecasts with the current generation of physics-based models. In particular, we focus on total electron content (TEC predictions using the Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere Model (GITM. Simulations are configured in a forecast mode and performed for four typical high-speed-stream events during 2007–2012. The simulated TECs are quantified through a metric, which divides the globe into a number of local regions and robustly differentiates between quiet and disturbed periods. Proposed forecast products are hourly global maps color-coded by the TEC disturbance level of each local region. To assess the forecasts, we compare the simulated TEC disturbances with global TEC maps derived from Global Positioning System (GPS satellite observations. The forecast performance is found to be merely acceptable, with a large number of regions where the observed variations are not captured by the simulations. Examples of model-data agreements and disagreements are investigated in detail, aiming to understand the model behavior and improve future forecasts. For one event, we identify two adjacent regions with similar TEC observations but significant differences in how local chemistry versus plasma transport contribute to electron density changes in the simulation. Suggestions for further analysis are described.

Adaptive Opportunistic Cooperative Control Mechanism Based on Combination Forecasting and Multilevel Sensing Technology of Sensors for Mobile Internet of Things

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yong Jin

2014-01-01

Full Text Available In mobile Internet of Things, there are many challenges, including sensing technology of sensors, how and when to join cooperative transmission, and how to select the cooperative sensors. To address these problems, we studied the combination forecasting based on the multilevel sensing technology of sensors, building upon which we proposed the adaptive opportunistic cooperative control mechanism based on the threshold values such as activity probability, distance, transmitting power, and number of relay sensors, in consideration of signal to noise ratio and outage probability. More importantly, the relay sensors would do self-test real time in order to judge whether to join the cooperative transmission, for maintaining the optimal cooperative transmission state with high performance. The mathematical analyses results show that the proposed adaptive opportunistic cooperative control approach could perform better in terms of throughput ratio, packet error rate and delay, and energy efficiency, compared with the direct transmission and opportunistic cooperative approaches.

E-learning process maturity level: a conceptual framework

Science.gov (United States)

Rahmah, A.; Santoso, H. B.; Hasibuan, Z. A.

2018-03-01

ICT advancement is a sure thing with the impact influencing many domains, including learning in both formal and informal situations. It leads to a new mindset that we should not only utilize the given ICT to support the learning process, but also improve it gradually involving a lot of factors. These phenomenon is called e-learning process evolution. Accordingly, this study attempts to explore maturity level concept to provide the improvement direction gradually and progression monitoring for the individual e-learning process. Extensive literature review, observation, and forming constructs are conducted to develop a conceptual framework for e-learning process maturity level. The conceptual framework consists of learner, e-learning process, continuous improvement, evolution of e-learning process, technology, and learning objectives. Whilst, evolution of e-learning process depicted as current versus expected conditions of e-learning process maturity level. The study concludes that from the e-learning process maturity level conceptual framework, it may guide the evolution roadmap for e-learning process, accelerate the evolution, and decrease the negative impact of ICT. The conceptual framework will be verified and tested in the future study.

Forecasts: uncertain, inaccurate and biased?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nicolaisen, Morten Skou; Ambrasaite, Inga; Salling, Kim Bang

2012-01-01

Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) is the dominating methodology for appraisal of transport infrastructure projects across the globe. In order to adequately assess the costs and benefits of such projects two types of forecasts are crucial to the validity of the appraisal. First are the forecasts of cons....... It is recommended that more attention is given to monitoring completed projects so future forecasts can benefit from better data availability through systematic ex-post evaluations, and an example of how to utilize such data in practice is presented.......Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) is the dominating methodology for appraisal of transport infrastructure projects across the globe. In order to adequately assess the costs and benefits of such projects two types of forecasts are crucial to the validity of the appraisal. First are the forecasts...... of construction costs, which account for the majority of total project costs. Second are the forecasts of travel time savings, which account for the majority of total project benefits. The latter of these is, inter alia, determined by forecasts of travel demand, which we shall use as a proxy for the forecasting...

Forecasting HotWater Consumption in Residential Houses

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Linas Gelažanskas

2015-11-01

Full Text Available An increased number of intermittent renewables poses a threat to the system balance. As a result, new tools and concepts, like advanced demand-side management and smart grid technologies, are required for the demand to meet supply. There is a need for higher consumer awareness and automatic response to a shortage or surplus of electricity. The distributed water heater can be considered as one of the most energy-intensive devices, where its energy demand is shiftable in time without influencing the comfort level. Tailored hot water usage predictions and advanced control techniques could enable these devices to supply ancillary energy balancing services. The paper analyses a set of hot water consumption data from residential dwellings. This work is an important foundation for the development of a demand-side management strategy based on hot water consumption forecasting at the level of individual residential houses. Various forecasting models, such as exponential smoothing, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average, seasonal decomposition and a combination of them, are fitted to test different prediction techniques. These models outperform the chosen benchmark models (mean, naive and seasonal naive and show better performance measure values. The results suggest that seasonal decomposition of the time series plays the most significant part in the accuracy of forecasting.

Project maturity evaluation model for SMEs from the software development sub-sector

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

ÁLVARO JULIO CUADROS LÓPEZ

Full Text Available The purpose of the paper is to present a project management maturity model for SMEs oriented to software development. The proposal is based on CMMI capability maturity model, and the SCAMPI evaluation method. The proposal includes a quantitative satisfaction scale, redundant evidence assessment, and multiple criteria for selecting experts. The proposal was validated with a case study carried out in a medium-sized company from the Information and Communications Technology sector. The model concluded that the company did not reach maturity level 2; however it showed that 92% of the processes from maturity level 2 and 77% of the total process had already been implemented, which allows the company to adopt a specific orientation for its improvement efforts.

Maturity Models in the Age of Digital Diversity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Kim Normann; Henriksen, Helle Zinner; Medaglia, Rony

2012-01-01

-government maturity model by Layne and Lee [1] included in the proposal of the Public Sector Process Rebuilding (PPR) model [2, 3]. The adoption and adaptation of Web 2.0 platforms and location-based services, and the parallel extension of conventional technologies as SMS and web-based self-services, challenge...

How accurate are the weather forecasts for Bierun (southern Poland)?

Science.gov (United States)

Gawor, J.

2012-04-01

Weather forecast accuracy has increased in recent times mainly thanks to significant development of numerical weather prediction models. Despite the improvements, the forecasts should be verified to control their quality. The evaluation of forecast accuracy can also be an interesting learning activity for students. It joins natural curiosity about everyday weather and scientific process skills: problem solving, database technologies, graph construction and graphical analysis. The examination of the weather forecasts has been taken by a group of 14-year-old students from Bierun (southern Poland). They participate in the GLOBE program to develop inquiry-based investigations of the local environment. For the atmospheric research the automatic weather station is used. The observed data were compared with corresponding forecasts produced by two numerical weather prediction models, i.e. COAMPS (Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System) developed by Naval Research Laboratory Monterey, USA; it runs operationally at the Interdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modelling in Warsaw, Poland and COSMO (The Consortium for Small-scale Modelling) used by the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management. The analysed data included air temperature, precipitation, wind speed, wind chill and sea level pressure. The prediction periods from 0 to 24 hours (Day 1) and from 24 to 48 hours (Day 2) were considered. The verification statistics that are commonly used in meteorology have been applied: mean error, also known as bias, for continuous data and a 2x2 contingency table to get the hit rate and false alarm ratio for a few precipitation thresholds. The results of the aforementioned activity became an interesting basis for discussion. The most important topics are: 1) to what extent can we rely on the weather forecasts? 2) How accurate are the forecasts for two considered time ranges? 3) Which precipitation threshold is the most predictable? 4) Why

Seasonal Drought Forecasting for Latin America Using the ECMWF S4 Forecast System

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Hugo Carrão

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Meaningful seasonal prediction of drought conditions is key information for end-users and water managers, particularly in Latin America where crop and livestock production are key for many regional economies. However, there are still not many studies of the feasibility of such a forecasts at continental level in the region. In this study, precipitation predictions from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather (ECMWF seasonal forecast system S4 are combined with observed precipitation data to generate forecasts of the standardized precipitation index (SPI for Latin America, and their skill is evaluated over the hindcast period 1981–2010. The value-added utility in using the ensemble S4 forecast to predict the SPI is identified by comparing the skill of its forecasts with a baseline skill based solely on their climatological characteristics. As expected, skill of the S4-generated SPI forecasts depends on the season, location, and the specific aggregation period considered (the 3- and 6-month SPI were evaluated. Added skill from the S4 for lead times equaling the SPI accumulation periods is primarily present in regions with high intra-annual precipitation variability, and is found mostly for the months at the end of the dry seasons for 3-month SPI, and half-yearly periods for 6-month SPI. The ECMWF forecast system behaves better than the climatology for clustered grid points in the North of South America, the Northeast of Argentina, Uruguay, southern Brazil and Mexico. The skillful regions are similar for the SPI3 and -6, but become reduced in extent for the severest SPI categories. Forecasting different magnitudes of meteorological drought intensity on a seasonal time scale still remains a challenge. However, the ECMWF S4 forecasting system does capture the occurrence of drought events for the aforementioned regions and seasons reasonably well. In the near term, the largest advances in the prediction of meteorological drought for Latin

Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Progress

Science.gov (United States)

Nagy, Béla; Farmer, J. Doyne; Bui, Quan M.; Trancik, Jessika E.

2013-01-01

Forecasting technological progress is of great interest to engineers, policy makers, and private investors. Several models have been proposed for predicting technological improvement, but how well do these models perform? An early hypothesis made by Theodore Wright in 1936 is that cost decreases as a power law of cumulative production. An alternative hypothesis is Moore's law, which can be generalized to say that technologies improve exponentially with time. Other alternatives were proposed by Goddard, Sinclair et al., and Nordhaus. These hypotheses have not previously been rigorously tested. Using a new database on the cost and production of 62 different technologies, which is the most expansive of its kind, we test the ability of six different postulated laws to predict future costs. Our approach involves hindcasting and developing a statistical model to rank the performance of the postulated laws. Wright's law produces the best forecasts, but Moore's law is not far behind. We discover a previously unobserved regularity that production tends to increase exponentially. A combination of an exponential decrease in cost and an exponential increase in production would make Moore's law and Wright's law indistinguishable, as originally pointed out by Sahal. We show for the first time that these regularities are observed in data to such a degree that the performance of these two laws is nearly the same. Our results show that technological progress is forecastable, with the square root of the logarithmic error growing linearly with the forecasting horizon at a typical rate of 2.5% per year. These results have implications for theories of technological change, and assessments of candidate technologies and policies for climate change mitigation. PMID:23468837

Statistical basis for predicting technological progress.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Béla Nagy

Full Text Available Forecasting technological progress is of great interest to engineers, policy makers, and private investors. Several models have been proposed for predicting technological improvement, but how well do these models perform? An early hypothesis made by Theodore Wright in 1936 is that cost decreases as a power law of cumulative production. An alternative hypothesis is Moore's law, which can be generalized to say that technologies improve exponentially with time. Other alternatives were proposed by Goddard, Sinclair et al., and Nordhaus. These hypotheses have not previously been rigorously tested. Using a new database on the cost and production of 62 different technologies, which is the most expansive of its kind, we test the ability of six different postulated laws to predict future costs. Our approach involves hindcasting and developing a statistical model to rank the performance of the postulated laws. Wright's law produces the best forecasts, but Moore's law is not far behind. We discover a previously unobserved regularity that production tends to increase exponentially. A combination of an exponential decrease in cost and an exponential increase in production would make Moore's law and Wright's law indistinguishable, as originally pointed out by Sahal. We show for the first time that these regularities are observed in data to such a degree that the performance of these two laws is nearly the same. Our results show that technological progress is forecastable, with the square root of the logarithmic error growing linearly with the forecasting horizon at a typical rate of 2.5% per year. These results have implications for theories of technological change, and assessments of candidate technologies and policies for climate change mitigation.

More intense experiences, less intense forecasts: why people overweight probability specifications in affective forecasts.

Science.gov (United States)

Buechel, Eva C; Zhang, Jiao; Morewedge, Carey K; Vosgerau, Joachim

2014-01-01

We propose that affective forecasters overestimate the extent to which experienced hedonic responses to an outcome are influenced by the probability of its occurrence. The experience of an outcome (e.g., winning a gamble) is typically more affectively intense than the simulation of that outcome (e.g., imagining winning a gamble) upon which the affective forecast for it is based. We suggest that, as a result, experiencers allocate a larger share of their attention toward the outcome (e.g., winning the gamble) and less to its probability specifications than do affective forecasters. Consequently, hedonic responses to an outcome are less sensitive to its probability specifications than are affective forecasts for that outcome. The results of 6 experiments provide support for our theory. Affective forecasters overestimated how sensitive experiencers would be to the probability of positive and negative outcomes (Experiments 1 and 2). Consistent with our attentional account, differences in sensitivity to probability specifications disappeared when the attention of forecasters was diverted from probability specifications (Experiment 3) or when the attention of experiencers was drawn toward probability specifications (Experiment 4). Finally, differences in sensitivity to probability specifications between forecasters and experiencers were diminished when the forecasted outcome was more affectively intense (Experiments 5 and 6).

Load forecasting for supermarket refrigeration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik; Aalborg Nielsen, Henrik

This report presents a study of models for forecasting the load for supermarket refrigeration. The data used for building the forecasting models consists of load measurements, local climate measurements and weather forecasts. The load measurements are from a supermarket located in a village...... in Denmark. The load for refrigeration is the sum of all cabinets in the supermarket, both low and medium temperature cabinets, and spans a period of one year. As input to the forecasting models the ambient temperature observed near the supermarket together with weather forecasts are used. Every hour...

An omitted variable in OECD oil supply forecasting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lynch, M.C.

1990-01-01

An earlier paper argued that, based on analysis of existing fields, non-OPEC production seems destined to begin declining soon. However, the author's rate of change for fields in production is about -10%/yr., and if it were adjusted based on this paper's findings, an actual increase in non-OPEC production would be observed. More work is needed to estimate coefficients for production from existing fields, incorporating 1) age of field (which would help indicate technology in place from inception) 2) viscosity of the deposit, 3) porosity of rock, 4) size of production, 5) measured remaining reserves, and 6) price paid at the wellhead. This would obviously be a formidable task. There does appear to be a persistent bias in forecasting competitive supply at the macro level, and the results here seem to suggest that at the micro level, it is due to the omission of additional investment in existing fields. This may help to explain why forecasts of non-OPEC supply have been consistently too pessimistic for at least the past decade, and implies that current forecasts of stronger markets may continue this error

Structural change and forecasting long-run energy prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bernard, J.T.; Khalaf, L.

2004-01-01

Fluctuating energy prices have a significant impact on the economies of industrialized nations. A recent study has shown a strong non-linear relationship between changes in oil prices and growth in gross domestic product (GDP). In order to forecast the behaviour of energy prices, a complete model must take into account domestic and international supply and demand conditions, market regulations, technological advances and geopolitics. In 1999, Pindyck suggested that for long-term forecasting, a simple model should be adopted where prices grow in real terms and at a fixed rate. This paper tests the statistical significance of Pindyck's suggested class of econometric equations that model the behaviour of long-run real energy prices. The models assume mean-reverting prices with continuous and random changes in their level and trend. They are estimated using Kalman filtering. The authors used simulation-based procedures to address the issue of non-standard test statistics and nuisance parameters. Results were reported for a standard Monte Carlo test and a maximized Monte Carlo test. Results shown statistically significant instabilities for coal and natural gas prices, but not for crude oil prices. Various models were differentiated using out-of-sample forecasting exercises. 25 refs., 3 tabs

Current and Potential Use of Technology Forecasting Tools in the Federal Government

Science.gov (United States)

2016-03-01

in a stand-alone fashion . vii Contents 1. Introduction... consultations with subject matter experts. The respondents at GAO expressed that one of their most significant challenges is forecasting the global economic...supplant the role of the analyst, and it should not be operated in a stand-alone fashion . In the following chapter, the specific capabilities of

Forecasting US renewables in the national energy modelling system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Diedrich, R.; Petersik, T.W.

2001-01-01

The Energy information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy (DOE) forecasts US renewable energy supply and demand in the context of overall energy markets using the National Energy Modelling System (NEMS). Renewables compete with other supply and demand options within the residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, and electricity sectors of the US economy. NEMS forecasts renewable energy for grid-connected electricity production within the Electricity Market Module (EM), and characterizes central station biomass, geothermal, conventional hydroelectric, municipal solid waste, solar thermal, solar photovoltaic, and wind-powered electricity generating technologies. EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 1998, projecting US energy markets, forecasts marketed renewables to remain a minor part of US energy production and consumption through to 2020. The USA is expected to remain primarily a fossil energy producer and consumer throughout the period. An alternative case indicates that biomass, wind, and to some extent geothermal power would likely increase most rapidly if the US were to require greater use of renewables for power supply, though electricity prices would increase somewhat. (author)

The System of Inventory Forecasting in PT. XYZ by using the Method of Holt Winter Multiplicative

Science.gov (United States)

Shaleh, W.; Rasim; Wahyudin

2018-01-01

Problems at PT. XYZ currently only rely on manual bookkeeping, then the cost of production will swell and all investments invested to be less to predict sales and inventory of goods. If the inventory prediction of goods is to large, then the cost of production will swell and all investments invested to be less efficient. Vice versa, if the inventory prediction is too small it will impact on consumers, so that consumers are forced to wait for the desired product. Therefore, in this era of globalization, the development of computer technology has become a very important part in every business plan. Almost of all companies, both large and small, use computer technology. By utilizing computer technology, people can make time in solving complex business problems. Computer technology for companies has become an indispensable activity to provide enhancements to the business services they manage but systems and technologies are not limited to the distribution model and data processing but the existing system must be able to analyze the possibilities of future company capabilities. Therefore, the company must be able to forecast conditions and circumstances, either from inventory of goods, force, or profits to be obtained. To forecast it, the data of total sales from December 2014 to December 2016 will be calculated by using the method of Holt Winters, which is the method of time series prediction (Multiplicative Seasonal Method) it is seasonal data that has increased and decreased, also has 4 equations i.e. Single Smoothing, Trending Smoothing, Seasonal Smoothing and Forecasting. From the results of research conducted, error value in the form of MAPE is below 1%, so it can be concluded that forecasting with the method of Holt Winter Multiplicative.

Forecast Combination under Heavy-Tailed Errors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gang Cheng

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Forecast combination has been proven to be a very important technique to obtain accurate predictions for various applications in economics, finance, marketing and many other areas. In many applications, forecast errors exhibit heavy-tailed behaviors for various reasons. Unfortunately, to our knowledge, little has been done to obtain reliable forecast combinations for such situations. The familiar forecast combination methods, such as simple average, least squares regression or those based on the variance-covariance of the forecasts, may perform very poorly due to the fact that outliers tend to occur, and they make these methods have unstable weights, leading to un-robust forecasts. To address this problem, in this paper, we propose two nonparametric forecast combination methods. One is specially proposed for the situations in which the forecast errors are strongly believed to have heavy tails that can be modeled by a scaled Student’s t-distribution; the other is designed for relatively more general situations when there is a lack of strong or consistent evidence on the tail behaviors of the forecast errors due to a shortage of data and/or an evolving data-generating process. Adaptive risk bounds of both methods are developed. They show that the resulting combined forecasts yield near optimal mean forecast errors relative to the candidate forecasts. Simulations and a real example demonstrate their superior performance in that they indeed tend to have significantly smaller prediction errors than the previous combination methods in the presence of forecast outliers.

World Area Forecast System (WAFS)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The World Area Forecast System (WAFS) is a worldwide system by which world area forecast centers provide aeronautical meteorological en-route forecasts in uniform...

On the improvement of IT process maturity: assessment, recommendation and validation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dirgahayu Teduh

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The use of information technology (IT in enterprises must be governed and managed appropriately using IT processes. The notion of IT process maturity is useful to measure the actual performance and to define the desired performance of IT processes. Improvements are necessary when there are gaps between the actual and desired performance. Most literatures focus on IT process maturity assessment. They do not address how to improve IT process maturity. This paper proposes an approach to enterprise IT process maturity improvement for COBIT processes. The approach consists of three activities, i.e. IT process maturity assessment, recommendation, and validation. Assessment is to recognise the process’ control objectives maturity. From the assessment results, recommendation identifies control objectives that must be improved and then suggests improvement actions. The prescriptive nature of the control objectives facilitates in suggesting those actions. Recommendations for managements are defined by abstracting similar actions. Validation checks whether the recommendations match with the enterprise needs and capability. It includes a scale for validation, in which enterprise’s capability is categorized into (i not capable, (ii capable with great efforts, and (iii fully capable. The paper illustrates the approach with a case study.

Sub-Seasonal Climate Forecast Rodeo

Science.gov (United States)

Webb, R. S.; Nowak, K.; Cifelli, R.; Brekke, L. D.

2017-12-01

The Bureau of Reclamation, as the largest water wholesaler and the second largest producer of hydropower in the United States, benefits from skillful forecasts of future water availability. Researchers, water managers from local, regional, and federal agencies, and groups such as the Western States Water Council agree that improved precipitation and temperature forecast information at the sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescale is an area with significant potential benefit to water management. In response, and recognizing NOAA's leadership in forecasting, Reclamation has partnered with NOAA to develop and implement a real-time S2S forecasting competition. For a year, solvers are submitting forecasts of temperature and precipitation for weeks 3&4 and 5&6 every two weeks on a 1x1 degree grid for the 17 western state domain where Reclamation operates. The competition began on April 18, 2017 and the final real-time forecast is due April 3, 2018. Forecasts are evaluated once observational data become available using spatial anomaly correlation. Scores are posted on a competition leaderboard hosted by the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS). The leaderboard can be accessed at: https://www.drought.gov/drought/sub-seasonal-climate-forecast-rodeo. To be eligible for cash prizes - which total $800,000 - solvers must outperform two benchmark forecasts during the real-time competition as well as in a required 11-year hind-cast. To receive a prize, competitors must grant a non-exclusive license to practice their forecast technique and make it available as open source software. At approximately one quarter complete, there are teams outperforming the benchmarks in three of the four competition categories. With prestige and monetary incentives on the line, it is hoped that the competition will spur innovation of improved S2S forecasts through novel approaches, enhancements to established models, or otherwise. Additionally, the competition aims to raise

Forecasting global atmospheric CO2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Agusti-Panareda, A.; Massart, S.; Boussetta, S.; Balsamo, G.; Beljaars, A.; Engelen, R.; Jones, L.; Peuch, V.H.; Chevallier, F.; Ciais, P.; Paris, J.D.; Sherlock, V.

2014-01-01

A new global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) real-time forecast is now available as part of the preoperational Monitoring of Atmospheric Composition and Climate - Interim Implementation (MACC-II) service using the infrastructure of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). One of the strengths of the CO 2 forecasting system is that the land surface, including vegetation CO 2 fluxes, is modelled online within the IFS. Other CO 2 fluxes are prescribed from inventories and from off-line statistical and physical models. The CO 2 forecast also benefits from the transport modelling from a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) system initialized daily with a wealth of meteorological observations. This paper describes the capability of the forecast in modelling the variability of CO 2 on different temporal and spatial scales compared to observations. The modulation of the amplitude of the CO 2 diurnal cycle by near-surface winds and boundary layer height is generally well represented in the forecast. The CO 2 forecast also has high skill in simulating day-to-day synoptic variability. In the atmospheric boundary layer, this skill is significantly enhanced by modelling the day-to-day variability of the CO 2 fluxes from vegetation compared to using equivalent monthly mean fluxes with a diurnal cycle. However, biases in the modelled CO 2 fluxes also lead to accumulating errors in the CO 2 forecast. These biases vary with season with an underestimation of the amplitude of the seasonal cycle both for the CO 2 fluxes compared to total optimized fluxes and the atmospheric CO 2 compared to observations. The largest biases in the atmospheric CO 2 forecast are found in spring, corresponding to the onset of the growing season in the Northern Hemisphere. In the future, the forecast will be re-initialized regularly with atmospheric CO 2 analyses based on the assimilation of CO 2 products retrieved from satellite