WorldWideScience

Sample records for technology impact forecasting

  1. Hydrocarbon Rocket Technology Impact Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuber, Eric; Prasadh, Nishant; Edwards, Stephen; Mavris, Dimitri N.

    2012-01-01

    Ever since the Apollo program ended, the development of launch propulsion systems in the US has fallen drastically, with only two new booster engine developments, the SSME and the RS-68, occurring in the past few decades.1 In recent years, however, there has been an increased interest in pursuing more effective launch propulsion technologies in the U.S., exemplified by the NASA Office of the Chief Technologist s inclusion of Launch Propulsion Systems as the first technological area in the Space Technology Roadmaps2. One area of particular interest to both government agencies and commercial entities has been the development of hydrocarbon engines; NASA and the Air Force Research Lab3 have expressed interest in the use of hydrocarbon fuels for their respective SLS Booster and Reusable Booster System concepts, and two major commercially-developed launch vehicles SpaceX s Falcon 9 and Orbital Sciences Antares feature engines that use RP-1 kerosene fuel. Compared to engines powered by liquid hydrogen, hydrocarbon-fueled engines have a greater propellant density (usually resulting in a lighter overall engine), produce greater propulsive force, possess easier fuel handling and loading, and for reusable vehicle concepts can provide a shorter turnaround time between launches. These benefits suggest that a hydrocarbon-fueled launch vehicle would allow for a cheap and frequent means of access to space.1 However, the time and money required for the development of a new engine still presents a major challenge. Long and costly design, development, testing and evaluation (DDT&E) programs underscore the importance of identifying critical technologies and prioritizing investment efforts. Trade studies must be performed on engine concepts examining the affordability, operability, and reliability of each concept, and quantifying the impacts of proposed technologies. These studies can be performed through use of the Technology Impact Forecasting (TIF) method. The Technology Impact

  2. Persistent forecasting of disruptive technologies

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Committee on Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies; National Research Council

    ...) and the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) tasked the Committee for Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies with providing guidance and insight on how to build a persistent forecasting system to predict, analyze, and reduce the impact...

  3. Forecasting the impact of virtual environment technology on maintenance training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlager, Mark S.; Boman, Duane; Piantanida, Tom; Stephenson, Robert

    1993-01-01

    To assist NASA and the Air Force in determining how and when to invest in virtual environment (VE) technology for maintenance training, we identified possible roles for VE technology in such training, assessed its cost-effectiveness relative to existing technologies, and formulated recommendations for a research agenda that would address instructional and system development issues involved in fielding a VE training system. In the first phase of the study, we surveyed VE developers to forecast capabilities, maturity, and estimated costs for VE component technologies. We then identified maintenance tasks and their training costs through interviews with maintenance technicians, instructors, and training developers. Ten candidate tasks were selected from two classes of maintenance tasks (seven aircraft maintenance and three space maintenance) using five criteria developed to identify types of tasks most likely to benefit from VE training. Three tasks were used as specific cases for cost-benefit analysis. In formulating research recommendations, we considered three aspects of feasibility: technological considerations, cost-effectiveness, and anticipated R&D efforts. In this paper, we describe the major findings in each of these areas and suggest research efforts that we believe will help achieve the goal of a cost-effective VE maintenance training system by the next decade.

  4. Socioeconomic Impact Assessment: Communications Industry. Phase III. Technology Forecast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1979-02-02

    follows: stagflation, balanced growth, rapid growth. That is, it requires less time to move from ideation to market introduction under a rapid growth...consider the relative relationship among the socio-economic scenarios. The assertions of import include: 1. The period between ideation and market ... introduction for a technology is influenced by the socio-economic scenario. It is likely that the time requirement, i.e. innovation lag, will be ordered as

  5. A Delphi forecast of technology in education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, B. E.

    1973-01-01

    The results are reported of a Delphi forecast of the utilization and social impacts of large-scale educational telecommunications technology. The focus is on both forecasting methodology and educational technology. The various methods of forecasting used by futurists are analyzed from the perspective of the most appropriate method for a prognosticator of educational technology, and review and critical analysis are presented of previous forecasts and studies. Graphic responses, summarized comments, and a scenario of education in 1990 are presented.

  6. The impact of earth resources exploration from space. [technology assessment/LANDSAT satellites -technological forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nordberg, W.

    1975-01-01

    The use of Earth Resources Technology Satellites in solving global problems is examined. Topics discussed are: (1) management of food, water, and fiber resources; (2) exploration and management of energy and mineral resources; (3) protection of the environment; (4) protection of life and property; and (5) improvements in shipping and navigation.

  7. Forecasting for strengthening technological development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aida Mayerly Fúquene Montañez

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Producing technological innovation is currently one of the key items in being more competitive. However, production sectors are facing great challenges, including analysing a large amount of available technological and market information regarding the en- vironment for strategic decision-making and being able to launch themselves onto the market with technological developments bringing the desired economic returns. Several tools for analysing information have emerged for reducing the uncertainty of tech- nological and market changes. This article provides conceptual and reflective elements so that forecasting strengthens technolo- gical development (TD. Forecasting is initially proposed as being one of the future methods of analysis having a significant im- pact on decision-making, mainly within the field of economics but which could be extrapolated to making a contribution to TD. The techniques which have been the recent instrument for collecting information for producing forecasting are described, as is work about the concept of surveillance/monitoring and the processes used for coordinating such approaches. It can thus be sta- ted that they provide an excellent basis for strengthening TD by providing platforms for new or improved developments in pro- cesses or products. Reflection about these aspects provides perspectives for implementing technological forecasting (TF in pro- duction systems so that they obtain efficient and concrete results via deterministic methods as input in decision-making in techno- logy regarding its middle- and long-term competitiveness.

  8. Multidisciplinary studies of the social, economic and political impact resulting from recent advances in satellite meteorology. Volume 6: Executive summary. [technological forecasting spacecraft control/attitude (inclination) -classical mechanics

    Science.gov (United States)

    1975-01-01

    An assessment of the technological impact of modern satellite weather forecasting for the United States is presented. Topics discussed are: (1) television broadcasting of weather; (2) agriculture (crop production); (3) water resources; (4) urban development; (5) recreation; and (6) transportation.

  9. Forecasting and Technology Management: Statistical Theory and Methodological Issues

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henning

    technology. The conclusion is that widespread awareness of the growing force of technology and increasing concern over its impact means that forecasting of technological development and consequences is absolutely essential in many managerial decision situations. Examples cover e.g. identification...... of directions and targets for a R and D project, monitoring of a given area by a public agency, and evaluation of the future competitive situation for a company. This paper gives a brief introduction to the field of technological forecasting especially in relation to the strategic planning process...... as the essential phase where decisions concerning introduction of new technology are taken in companies. It includes as well a description of the problems related to the marketing area and of methods applicable in practising technological forecasting....

  10. Forecasting methods for computer technology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Worlton, W.J.

    1978-01-01

    How well the computer site manager avoids future dangers and takes advantage of future opportunities depends to a considerable degree on how much anticipatory information he has available. People who rise in management are expected with each successive promotion to concern themselves with events further in the future. It is the function of technology projection to increase this stock of information about possible future developments in order to put planning and decision making on a more rational basis. Past efforts at computer technology projections have an accuracy that declines exponentially with time. Thus, precisely defined technology projections beyond about three years should be used with considerable caution. This paper reviews both subjective and objective methods of technology projection and gives examples of each. For an integrated view of future prospects in computer technology, a framework for technology projection is proposed.

  11. Forecasting methods for computer technology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Worlton, W.J.

    1978-01-01

    How well the computer site manager avoids future dangers and takes advantage of future opportunities depends to a considerable degree on how much anticipatory information he has available. People who rise in management are expected with each successive promotion to concern themselves with events further in the future. It is the function of technology projection to increase this stock of information about possible future developments in order to put planning and decision making on a more rational basis. Past efforts at computer technology projections have an accuracy that declines exponentially with time. Thus, precisely defined technology projections beyond about three years should be used with considerable caution. This paper reviews both subjective and objective methods of technology projection and gives examples of each. For an integrated view of future prospects in computer technology, a framework for technology projection is proposed.

  12. Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Information Technology and Services--Lessons from Home Video Forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klopfenstein, Bruce C.

    1989-01-01

    Describes research that examined the strengths and weaknesses of technological forecasting methods by analyzing forecasting studies made for home video players. The discussion covers assessments and explications of correct and incorrect forecasting assumptions, and their implications for forecasting the adoption of home information technologies…

  13. Forecasting and management of technology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Roper, A. T

    2011-01-01

    ... the authors see as the innovations to technology management in the last 17 years: the Internet; the greater focus on group decision-making including process management and mechanism design; and desktop software that has transformed the analytical capabilities of technology managers"--Provided by publisher.

  14. Forecasting and management of technology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Roper, A. T

    2011-01-01

    "The new, revised edition of this book will build on this knowledge in the context of business organizations that now place a greater emphasis on technology to stay on the cutting edge of development...

  15. A Quantitative Approach for Measuring Technological Forecasting Capability

    OpenAIRE

    Ayhan, Mustafa Batuhan; Oztemel, Ercan

    2013-01-01

    Successful technological forecasting is important to invest scarce funds to emerging technologies. A generic model to measure the success of forecasting overall technological changes is introduced in this paper, called degree of Technological Forecasting Capability. It measures the success rate of forecasts in manufacturing processes based on four important aspects of a manufacturing system; Flow Time, Quantity/Day, Scrap Ratio, and New Investment Revenue. The proposed approach has been verif...

  16. Forecasting the space weather impact

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Crosby, N. B.; Veronig, A.; Robbrecht, E.

    2012-01-01

    The FP7 COronal Mass Ejections and Solar Energetic Particles (COMESEP) project is developing tools for forecasting geomagnetic storms and solar energetic particle (SEP) radiation storms. By analysis of historical data, complemented by the extensive data coverage of solar cycle 23, the key ingredi...

  17. Forecasting Technological Discontinuities in the ICT Industry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoisl, Karin; Stelzer, Tobias; Biala, Stefanie

    2015-01-01

    Building on the existing literature on evolutionary innovation and technological change, this paper aims to identify potential signals of technological discontinuities and to obtain assessments of experts to what extent these signals help them to predict discontinuities. Furthermore, we analyze...... in the ICT industry. The conjoint approach allows for a simulation of the forecasting process and considers utility trade-offs. The results show that for both types of experts the perceived benefit of users most highly contributes to predicting technological discontinuities. Internal experts assign more...... insights to the literature on R&D and innovation management....

  18. [Forecasting medical technologies--a global overview].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tal, Orna

    2011-02-01

    Forecasting new medical technologies is a crucial stage in the process of decision-making in health care systems on national, organizational, professional and personal levels. Knowing what is on the horizon is essential. It is a tool facilitating preparedness and planning for updating health care in the western world. The challenge is to identify new promising technologies at an early stage. This is due to the uncertainty in estimating developing trends and consequences (clinical, financial, political, legal, social and ethical). A balance must be found between the desire to adopt new emerging technologies and the necessity for accountability n basing decisions on efficient evidence. Scarce resources, pervading health systems everywhere, emphasize the need for this mechanism to justify and improve health system determinations. Planning for the future has expanded into new medical fields, thereby reinforcing the importance of national forecasting bodies. This article presents the basic terminology and principles of medical technology forecasting and reviews the agencies involved in early warning systems including Israel.

  19. Calls Forecast for the Moscow Ambulance Service. The Impact of Weather Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordin, Vladimir; Bykov, Philipp

    2015-04-01

    We use the known statistics of the calls for the current and previous days to predict them for tomorrow and for the following days. We assume that this algorithm will work operatively, will cyclically update the available information and will move the horizon of the forecast. Sure, the accuracy of such forecasts depends on their lead time, and from a choice of some group of diagnoses. For comparison we used the error of the inertial forecast (tomorrow there will be the same number of calls as today). Our technology has demonstrated accuracy that is approximately two times better compared to the inertial forecast. We obtained the following result: the number of calls depends on the actual weather in the city as well as on its rate of change. We were interested in the accuracy of the forecast for 12-hour sum of the calls in real situations. We evaluate the impact of the meteorological errors [1] on the forecast errors of the number of Ambulance calls. The weather and the Ambulance calls number both have seasonal tendencies. Therefore, if we have medical information from one city only, we should separate the impacts of such predictors as "annual variations in the number of calls" and "weather". We need to consider the seasonal tendencies (associated, e. g. with the seasonal migration of the population) and the impact of the air temperature simultaneously, rather than sequentially. We forecasted separately the number of calls with diagnoses of cardiovascular group, where it was demonstrated the advantage of the forecasting method, when we use the maximum daily air temperature as a predictor. We have a chance to evaluate statistically the influence of meteorological factors on the dynamics of medical problems. In some cases it may be useful for understanding of the physiology of disease and possible treatment options. We can assimilate some personal archives of medical parameters for the individuals with concrete diseases and the relative meteorological archive. As a

  20. Extravehicular Activity Technology Development Status and Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chullen, Cinda; Westheimer, David T.

    2011-01-01

    The goal of NASA s current EVA technology effort is to further develop technologies that will be used to demonstrate a robust EVA system that has application for a variety of future missions including microgravity and surface EVA. Overall the objectives will be to reduce system mass, reduce consumables and maintenance, increase EVA hardware robustness and life, increase crew member efficiency and autonomy, and enable rapid vehicle egress and ingress. Over the past several years, NASA realized a tremendous increase in EVA system development as part of the Exploration Technology Development Program and the Constellation Program. The evident demand for efficient and reliable EVA technologies, particularly regenerable technologies was apparent under these former programs and will continue to be needed as future mission opportunities arise. The technological need for EVA in space has been realized over the last several decades by the Gemini, Apollo, Skylab, Space Shuttle, and the International Space Station (ISS) programs. EVAs were critical to the success of these programs. Now with the ISS extension to 2028 in conjunction with a current forecasted need of at least eight EVAs per year, the EVA hardware life and limited availability of the Extravehicular Mobility Units (EMUs) will eventually become a critical issue. The current EMU has successfully served EVA demands by performing critical operations to assemble the ISS and provide repairs of satellites such as the Hubble Space Telescope. However, as the life of ISS and the vision for future mission opportunities are realized, a new EVA systems capability will be needed and the current architectures and technologies under development offer significant improvements over the current flight systems. In addition to ISS, potential mission applications include EVAs for missions to Near Earth Objects (NEO), Phobos, or future surface missions. Surface missions could include either exploration of the Moon or Mars. Providing an

  1. Potential Technologies for Assessing Risk Associated with a Mesoscale Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-10-01

    the actual model-forecast error—the 500-hPa root-mean-square error (RMSE) height error. Future work should also consider other forecast metrics such...ARL-TN-0708 ● OCT 2015 US Army Research Laboratory Potential Technologies for Assessing Risk Associated with a Mesoscale...OCT 2015 US Army Research Laboratory Potential Technologies for Assessing Risk Associated with a Mesoscale Forecast by Patrick A

  2. TRIZ TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING AS QFD INPUT WITHIN THE NPD ACTIVITIES

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Coulibaly Solomani; Hua Zhongsheng; Shi Qin; Wang Wei

    2004-01-01

    As a result of the fierceness of business competition,companies,to remain competitive,have to charm their customers by anticipating their needs and being able to rapidly develop exciting new products for them.To overcome this challenge,technology forecasting is considered as a powerful tool in today's business environment,while there are as many success stories as there are failures,a good application of this method will give a good result.A methodology of integration of patterns or lines of technology evolution in TRIZ parlance is presented,which is also known as TRIZ technology forecasting,as input to the QFD process to design a new product.For this purpose,TRIZ technology forecasting,one of the TRIZ major tools,is discussed and some benefits compared to the traditional forecasting techniques are highlighted.Then a methodology to integrate TRIZ technology forecasting and QFD process is highlighted.

  3. Forecasting and Technology Management: Statistical Theory and Methodological Issues

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henning

    The degree of development in the technical capability of many new devices and materials over their predecessors often is in multiples of improvement. These gains in performance are so great that they abruptly and drastically alter the means, effects, time, or costs of doing things. Thus, they dis......The degree of development in the technical capability of many new devices and materials over their predecessors often is in multiples of improvement. These gains in performance are so great that they abruptly and drastically alter the means, effects, time, or costs of doing things. Thus...... technology. The conclusion is that widespread awareness of the growing force of technology and increasing concern over its impact means that forecasting of technological development and consequences is absolutely essential in many managerial decision situations. Examples cover e.g. identification...

  4. Retrospective Analysis of Technology Forecasting: In-Scope Extension

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-13

    were the means used to collect and verify forecasts, as well as the use of deep web research and broad sourcing. The study methodology is summarized in...include: • Searching the “ deep web ” to find forecast documents that are not indexed by standard search engines and therefore cannot be retrieved...used books and published reports that contain technological forecasts To search the deep web , we contracted with Bright Planet, which used proprietary

  5. New Technology Trends in Education: Seven Years of Forecasts and Convergence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Sergio; Diaz, Gabriel; Sancristobal, Elio; Gil, Rosario; Castro, Manuel; Peire, Juan

    2011-01-01

    Each year since 2004, a new Horizon Report has been released. Each edition attempts to forecast the most promising technologies likely to impact on education along three horizons: the short term (the year of the report), the mid-term (the next 2 years) and the long term (the next 4 years). This paper analyzes the evolution of technology trends…

  6. Evaluation of Flood Forecast and Warning in Elbe river basin - Impact of Forecaster's Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danhelka, Jan; Vlasak, Tomas

    2010-05-01

    Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI) is responsible for flood forecasting and warning in the Czech Republic. To meet that issue CHMI operates hydrological forecasting systems and publish flow forecast in selected profiles. Flood forecast and warning is an output of system that links observation (flow and atmosphere), data processing, weather forecast (especially NWP's QPF), hydrological modeling and modeled outputs evaluation and interpretation by forecaster. Forecast users are interested in final output without separating uncertainties of separate steps of described process. Therefore an evaluation of final operational forecasts was done for profiles within Elbe river basin produced by AquaLog forecasting system during period 2002 to 2008. Effects of uncertainties of observation, data processing and especially meteorological forecasts were not accounted separately. Forecast of flood levels exceedance (peak over the threshold) during forecasting period was the main criterion as flow increase forecast is of the highest importance. Other evaluation criteria included peak flow and volume difference. In addition Nash-Sutcliffe was computed separately for each time step (1 to 48 h) of forecasting period to identify its change with the lead time. Textual flood warnings are issued for administrative regions to initiate flood protection actions in danger of flood. Flood warning hit rate was evaluated at regions level and national level. Evaluation found significant differences of model forecast skill between forecasting profiles, particularly less skill was evaluated at small headwater basins due to domination of QPF uncertainty in these basins. The average hit rate was 0.34 (miss rate = 0.33, false alarm rate = 0.32). However its explored spatial difference is likely to be influenced also by different fit of parameters sets (due to different basin characteristics) and importantly by different impact of human factor. Results suggest that the practice of interactive

  7. Impact of the assimilation of lightning data on the precipitation forecast at different forecast ranges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Federico, Stefano; Petracca, Marco; Panegrossi, Giulia; Transerici, Claudio; Dietrich, Stefano

    2017-06-01

    This study investigates the impact of the assimilation of total lightning data on the precipitation forecast of a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. The impact of the lightning data assimilation, which uses water vapour substitution, is investigated at different forecast time ranges, namely 3, 6, 12, and 24 h, to determine how long and to what extent the assimilation affects the precipitation forecast of long lasting rainfall events (> 24 h). The methodology developed in a previous study is slightly modified here, and is applied to twenty case studies occurred over Italy by a mesoscale model run at convection-permitting horizontal resolution (4 km). The performance is quantified by dichotomous statistical scores computed using a dense raingauge network over Italy. Results show the important impact of the lightning assimilation on the precipitation forecast, especially for the 3 and 6 h forecast. The probability of detection (POD), for example, increases by 10 % for the 3 h forecast using the assimilation of lightning data compared to the simulation without lightning assimilation for all precipitation thresholds considered. The Equitable Threat Score (ETS) is also improved by the lightning assimilation, especially for thresholds below 40 mm day-1. Results show that the forecast time range is very important because the performance decreases steadily and substantially with the forecast time. The POD, for example, is improved by 1-2 % for the 24 h forecast using lightning data assimilation compared to 10 % of the 3 h forecast. The impact of the false alarms on the model performance is also evidenced by this study.

  8. Research and Development for Technology Evolution Potential Forecasting System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Changqing; Cao, Shukun; Wang, Yuzeng; Ai, Changsheng; Ze, Xiangbo

    Technology forecasting is a powerful weapon for many enterprises to gain an animate future. Evolutionary potential radar plot is a necessary step of some valuable methods to help the technology managers with right technical strategy. A software system for Technology Evolution Potential Forecasting (TEPF) with automatic radar plot drawing is introduced in this paper. The framework of the system and the date structure describing the concrete evolution pattern are illustrated in details. And the algorithm for radar plot drawing is researched. It is proved that the TEPF system is an effective tool during the technology strategy analyzing process with a referenced case study.

  9. Using Adjoint-Based Forecast Sensitivity Method to Evaluate TAMDAR Data Impacts on Regional Forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoyan Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluates the impact of Tropospheric Airborne Meteorological Data Reporting (TAMDAR observations on regional 24-hour forecast error reduction over the Continental United States (CONUS domain using adjoint-based forecast sensitivity to observation (FSO method as the diagnostic tool. The relative impact of TAMDAR observations on reducing the forecast error was assessed by conducting the WRFDA FSO experiments for two two-week-long periods, one in January and one in June 2010. These experiments assimilated operational TAMDAR data and other conventional observations, as well as GPS refractivity (GPSREF. FSO results show that rawinsonde soundings (SOUND and TAMDAR exhibit the largest observation impact on 24 h WRF forecast, followed by GeoAMV, aviation routine weather reports (METAR, GPSREF, and synoptic observations (SYNOP. At 0000 and 1200 UTC, TAMDAR has an equivalent impact to SOUND in reducing the 24-hour forecast error. However, at 1800 UTC, TAMDAR has a distinct advantage over SOUND, which has the sparse observation report at these times. In addition, TAMDAR humidity observations at lower levels of the atmosphere (700 and 850 hPa have a significant impact on 24 h forecast error reductions. TAMDAR and SOUND observations present a qualitatively similar observation impact between FSO and Observation System Experiments (OSEs.

  10. Addressing forecast uncertainty impact on CSP annual performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferretti, Fabio; Hogendijk, Christopher; Aga, Vipluv; Ehrsam, Andreas

    2017-06-01

    This work analyzes the impact of weather forecast uncertainty on the annual performance of a Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) plant. Forecast time series has been produced by a commercial forecast provider using the technique of hindcasting for the full year 2011 in hourly resolution for Ouarzazate, Morocco. Impact of forecast uncertainty has been measured on three case studies, representing typical tariff schemes observed in recent CSP projects plus a spot market price scenario. The analysis has been carried out using an annual performance model and a standard dispatch optimization algorithm based on dynamic programming. The dispatch optimizer has been demonstrated to be a key requisite to maximize the annual revenues depending on the price scenario, harvesting the maximum potential out of the CSP plant. Forecasting uncertainty affects the revenue enhancement outcome of a dispatch optimizer depending on the error level and the price function. Results show that forecasting accuracy of direct solar irradiance (DNI) is important to make best use of an optimized dispatch but also that a higher number of calculation updates can partially compensate this uncertainty. Improvement in revenues can be significant depending on the price profile and the optimal operation strategy. Pathways to achieve better performance are presented by having more updates both by repeatedly generating new optimized trajectories but also more often updating weather forecasts. This study shows the importance of working on DNI weather forecasting for revenue enhancement as well as selecting weather services that can provide multiple updates a day and probabilistic forecast information.

  11. The impact of Sun-weather research on forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, M. F.

    1979-01-01

    The possible impact of Sun-weather research on forecasting is examined. The type of knowledge of the effect is evaluated to determine if it is in a form that can be used for forecasting purposes. It is concluded that the present understanding of the effect does not lend itself readily to applications for forecast purposes. The limits of present predictive skill are examined and it is found that skill is most lacking for prediction of the smallest scales of atmospheric motion. However, it is not expected that Sun-weather research will have any significant impact on forecasting the smaller scales since predictability at these scales is limited by the finite grid size resolution and the time scales of turbulent diffusion. The predictability limits for the largest scales are on the order of several weeks although presently only a one week forecast is achievable.

  12. Impact of prescribed diabatic heating on short range weather forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marx, L.; Shukla, J.

    1984-01-01

    Using the 9 layer general circulation model developed at the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences (GLAS), several 4 to 5 day integrations were made to assess the impact that latent heating processes (supersaturation and moist convective) have on the model forecasts. In an earlier study by Shukla (1981) it was hypothesized that because of strong interaction between dynamics and moist convection, small initial errors grow very fast and make short range forecasting difficult. The purpose of this study was to examine if prescribed heating rates can improve the forecasts for a few days.

  13. CSIR Technology Impact 2000

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    CSIR

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available This millennium issue of Technology Impact celebrates the CSIR's contributions during the transitional 1999/2000 year. It presents a rich canvas portrays technology solutions and information which have touched the lives of people both within...

  14. CSIR Technology Impact 1993

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    CSIR

    1993-01-01

    Full Text Available This issue of Technology Impact offers a brief snapshot of CSIR activities during the year under review by highlighting a number of innovative projects and initiatives in these areas. It presents a rich canvas portrays technology solutions...

  15. CSIR Technology Impact 1999

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    CSIR

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available This issue of Technology Impact offers a brief snapshot of CSIR activities during the year under review by highlighting a number of innovative projects and initiatives in these areas. It presents a rich canvas portrays technology solutions...

  16. CSIR Technology Impact 1996

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    CSIR

    1996-01-01

    Full Text Available This issue of Technology Impact offers a brief snapshot of CSIR activities during the year under review by highlighting a number of innovative projects and initiatives in these areas. It presents a rich canvas portrays technology solutions...

  17. CSIR Technology Impact 1994

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    CSIR

    1994-01-01

    Full Text Available This issue of Technology Impact offers a brief snapshot of CSIR activities during the year under review by highlighting a number of innovative projects and initiatives in these areas. It presents a rich canvas portrays technology solutions...

  18. Technological Forecasting: Methodology Embrapa Brazilian Company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eliane Fernandes Pietrovski

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Structural, economic and social changes are present in organizations. One of the strategies for decision-making, which leads to organizational policies, is the construction of feasible and doable technological scenarios that enable innovations to trigger the processes of technological change. This study to analyze the prospect of technological scenarios in the Brazilian Agricultural Research Agency a public organization of Research, Development and Innovation, based on scenario building in its operating environment. For the methodological procedures, a systemic review addressing the problem of searching for qualitative bias was developed. Taking this study’s point of view, the research is exploratory and descriptive. The sources of data collection were primary and secondary. The technical consistency of prospective scenarios for the company was highlighted in the results of this study, as this was the object of this analysis. Through the collected data it was possible to verify the inferences between literature and the applied method. [JEL Classification: O310].

  19. Impacts of the Midwestern Drought Forecasts of 2000.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Changnon, Stanley A.

    2002-10-01

    In March of 2000 (and again in April and May) NOAA issued long-range forecasts indicating that an existing Midwestern drought would continue and intensify through the upcoming summer. These forecasts received extensive media coverage and wide public attention. If the drought persisted and intensified during the summer of 2000, significant agricultural and water supply problems would occur. However, in late May, June, and July heavy rains fell throughout most of the Midwest, ending the drought in most areas and revealing that the forecast was incorrect for most of the Midwest. Significant media coverage was devoted to the `failed' forecast, with considerable speculation that major economic hardship had resulted from the forecast. This study assesses the effects of the failed drought forecast on agricultural and water agency actions in the Midwest. Assessment of the agricultural and water management sectors revealed notable commonalities. Most people surveyed were aware of the drought forecasts, and the information sources were diverse. One-third of those surveyed indicated they did nothing as a result of the forecasts. The decisions and actions taken by others as a result of the forecasts provided mixed impacts. The water resource actions such as conserving water, seeking new sources, and convening state drought groups resulted in little cost and were considered to be beneficial. However, in the three areas of agricultural impacts (crop production shifts, crop insurance purchases, and grain market choices), mainly negative outcomes occurred. The 13 March issuance of the forecast was too late for producers to make sizable changes in production practices or to alter insurance coverage greatly, and most forecast-based actions taken in these two areas were considered to be negative but financially minor losses. However, 48% of the 1017 producers sampled altered their normal crop marketing practices, which in 84% of the cases led to sizable losses in revenue. This loss

  20. CSIR Technology Impact 1998

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    CSIR

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available stream_source_info CSIR Technology Impact 1998.pdf.txt stream_content_type text/plain stream_size 23 Content-Encoding ISO-8859-1 stream_name CSIR Technology Impact 1998.pdf.txt Content-Type text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1 ...

  1. Orographic drag uncertainties impact forecast skill

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandu, Irina; Zadra, Ayrton; Wedi, Nils; Bacmeister, Julio

    2017-04-01

    Despite their importance for the large-scale circulation, to date the representation of drag processes remains a major source of uncertainty in global models. Among the different drag processes the representation of orographic drag is particularly challenging. This has been recently highlighted by the WMO Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE) 'Drag project' which demonstrated that the main NWP and climate models differ significantly in representation of the total parameterized surface stress and in the partitioning of surface stress among various physical processes, particularly in regions with orography. Here we discuss how uncertain is the representation of orographic drag in models, and we illustrate how this uncertainty affects the skill of medium range weather forecasts. Namely we show how different is the representation of the resolved orography even in models with similar headline horizontal resolution. We also use the results of the WGNE 'Drag project' to illustrate how much models differ in terms of the total parameterized surface stress and its partition among various processes. Finally, we use the Integrated Forecasting System of ECMWF to demonstrate how much these intermodel differences either in the resolved orography or the representation subgrid drag affect the forecast skill.

  2. The Impact of Soil Moisture Initialization On Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koster, R. D.; Suarez, M. J.; Tyahla, L.; Houser, Paul (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    Some studies suggest that the proper initialization of soil moisture in a forecasting model may contribute significantly to the accurate prediction of seasonal precipitation, especially over mid-latitude continents. In order for the initialization to have any impact at all, however, two conditions must be satisfied: (1) the initial soil moisture anomaly must be "remembered" into the forecasted season, and (2) the atmosphere must respond in a predictable way to the soil moisture anomaly. In our previous studies, we identified the key land surface and atmospheric properties needed to satisfy each condition. Here, we tie these studies together with an analysis of an ensemble of seasonal forecasts. Initial soil moisture conditions for the forecasts are established by forcing the land surface model with realistic precipitation prior to the start of the forecast period. As expected, the impacts on forecasted precipitation (relative to an ensemble of runs that do not utilize soil moisture information) tend to be localized over the small fraction of the earth with all of the required land and atmosphere properties.

  3. Real-time forecasts of flood hazard and impact: some UK experiences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cole Steven J.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Major UK floods over the last decade have motivated significant technological and scientific advances in operational flood forecasting and warning. New joint forecasting centres between the national hydrological and meteorological operating agencies have been formed that issue a daily, national Flood Guidance Statement (FGS to the emergency response community. The FGS is based on a Flood Risk Matrix approach that is a function of potential impact severity and likelihood. It has driven an increased demand for robust, accurate and timely forecast and alert information on fluvial and surface water flooding along with impact assessments. The Grid-to-Grid (G2G distributed hydrological model has been employed across Britain at a 1km resolution to support the FGS. Novel methods for linking dynamic gridded estimates of river flow and surface runoff with more detailed offline flood risk maps have been developed to obtain real-time probabilistic forecasts of potential impacts, leading to operational trials. Examples of the national-scale G2G application are provided along with case studies of forecast flood impact from (i an operational Surface Water Flooding (SWF trial during the Glasgow 2014 Commonwealth Games, (ii SWF developments under the Natural Hazards Partnership over England & Wales, and (iii fluvial applications in Scotland.

  4. Essays on Technology and Forecasting in Macroeconomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samuels, Jon Devin

    2012-01-01

    The three chapters in this dissertation use disaggregated models and data to provide new insights on well-established questions in macroeconomics. In the first chapter, to analyze how productivity impacts the business cycle, I model aggregate production with a production possibility frontier that accommodates sector-and factor-biased productivity.…

  5. Essays on Technology and Forecasting in Macroeconomics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samuels, Jon Devin

    2012-01-01

    The three chapters in this dissertation use disaggregated models and data to provide new insights on well-established questions in macroeconomics. In the first chapter, to analyze how productivity impacts the business cycle, I model aggregate production with a production possibility frontier that accommodates sector-and factor-biased productivity.…

  6. INVESTIGATION OF AN APPROPRIATE TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING PROCESS FOR SASOL FOR THE NEW ENERGY ERA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Ma

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Sasol is predominantly an energy-based company. The energy industry is undergoing a fundamental transformation that may have a profound impact on Sasol’s overall business. This study has been carried out to investigate the need to establish an appropriate technology forecasting process for the new energy era. Although there exist some evidence of technology forecasting within Sasol, they are scattered and unsophisticated. Technology forecasting as a tool enables managers to make better decisions and encourages networking and knowledge sharing within the organization, an important trait of a ‘Learning Organization’. A theoretical framework of technology forecasting for Sasol is thereby formulated.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Sasol is hoofsaaklik 'n energie-gebaseerde maatskappy. Die energie-industrie ondergaan tans 'n diepgaande transformasie wat 'n wesenlike impak kan hê op Sasol se totale besigheid. Hierdie studie is uitgevoer om die behoefte vir 'n toepaslike tegnologie-vooruitskattingsproses vir die nuwe energie-era te bepaal. Alhoewel daar bewyse bestaan vir tegnologie-vooruitskatting binne Sasol, is dit verspreid en ongesofistikeerd. Tegnologie-vooruitskatting is 'n gereedskapstuk wat bestuurders in staat stel om beter besluite te neem en bevorder die gebruik van netwerke en kennis-uitruiling binne die organisasie, 'n belangrike eienskap van 'n 'Lerende Organisasie'. 'n Teoretiese raamwerk vir tegnologie-vooruitskatting vir Sasol word sodoende geformuleer.

  7. Computer technology forecast study for general aviation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seacord, C. L.; Vaughn, D.

    1976-01-01

    A multi-year, multi-faceted program is underway to investigate and develop potential improvements in airframes, engines, and avionics for general aviation aircraft. The objective of this study was to assemble information that will allow the government to assess the trends in computer and computer/operator interface technology that may have application to general aviation in the 1980's and beyond. The current state of the art of computer hardware is assessed, technical developments in computer hardware are predicted, and nonaviation large volume users of computer hardware are identified.

  8. Operational flash flood forecasting platform based on grid technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thierion, V.; Ayral, P.-A.; Angelini, V.; Sauvagnargues-Lesage, S.; Nativi, S.; Payrastre, O.

    2009-04-01

    Flash flood events of south of France such as the 8th and 9th September 2002 in the Grand Delta territory caused important economic and human damages. Further to this catastrophic hydrological situation, a reform of flood warning services have been initiated (set in 2006). Thus, this political reform has transformed the 52 existing flood warning services (SAC) in 22 flood forecasting services (SPC), in assigning them territories more hydrological consistent and new effective hydrological forecasting mission. Furthermore, national central service (SCHAPI) has been created to ease this transformation and support local services in their new objectives. New functioning requirements have been identified: - SPC and SCHAPI carry the responsibility to clearly disseminate to public organisms, civil protection actors and population, crucial hydrologic information to better anticipate potential dramatic flood event, - a new effective hydrological forecasting mission to these flood forecasting services seems essential particularly for the flash floods phenomenon. Thus, models improvement and optimization was one of the most critical requirements. Initially dedicated to support forecaster in their monitoring mission, thanks to measuring stations and rainfall radar images analysis, hydrological models have to become more efficient in their capacity to anticipate hydrological situation. Understanding natural phenomenon occuring during flash floods mainly leads present hydrological research. Rather than trying to explain such complex processes, the presented research try to manage the well-known need of computational power and data storage capacities of these services. Since few years, Grid technology appears as a technological revolution in high performance computing (HPC) allowing large-scale resource sharing, computational power using and supporting collaboration across networks. Nowadays, EGEE (Enabling Grids for E-science in Europe) project represents the most important

  9. An improved market penetration model for wind energy technology forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lund, P.D. [Helsinki Univ. of Technology, Espoo (Finland). Advanced Energy Systems

    1995-12-31

    An improved market penetration model with application to wind energy forecasting is presented. In the model, a technology diffusion model and manufacturing learning curve are combined. Based on a 85% progress ratio that was found for European wind manufactures and on wind market statistics, an additional wind power capacity of ca 4 GW is needed in Europe to reach a 30 % price reduction. A full breakthrough to low-cost utility bulk power markets could be achieved at a 24 GW level. (author)

  10. Magnitude Uncertainties Impact Seismic Rate Estimates, Forecasts and Predictability Experiments

    CERN Document Server

    Werner, M J

    2007-01-01

    The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) aims to prospectively test time-dependent earthquake probability forecasts on their consistency with observations. To compete, time-dependent seismicity models are calibrated on earthquake catalog data. But catalogs contain much observational uncertainty. We study the impact of magnitude uncertainties on rate estimates in clustering models, on their forecasts and on their evaluation by CSEP's consistency tests. First, we quantify magnitude uncertainties. We find that magnitude uncertainty is more heavy-tailed than a Gaussian, such as a double-sided exponential distribution, with scale parameter nu_c=0.1 - 0.3. Second, we study the impact of such noise on the forecasts of a simple clustering model which captures the main ingredients of popular short term models. We prove that the deviations of noisy forecasts from an exact forecast are power law distributed in the tail with exponent alpha=1/(a*nu_c), where a is the exponent of the productivity...

  11. CSIR Technology Impact 2003

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    CSIR

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available This issue of Technology Impact offers a brief snapshot of CSIR activities during the year under review (1 March 2002 - 28 February 2003) by highlighting a number of innovative projects and initiatives in various CSIR business units....

  12. CSIR Technology Impact 2002

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    CSIR

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available This issue of Technology Impact offers a brief snapshot of CSIR activities during the year under review (1 March 2001 - 28 February 2002) by highlighting a number of innovative projects and initiatives in these areas....

  13. Forecasting of innovative activity on the basis of application of technology of Foresight

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nazarova Natalia Leonidovna

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available In article the basic questions of forecasting of innovative activity of economic systems are considered. Forsyte's bases are considered. Necessity, importance, success of application of technology of Forsyte for forecasting of innovative activity are proved.

  14. Impact of High Resolution SST Data on Regional Weather Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jedlovec, Gary J.; Case, Jonathon; LaFontaine, Frank; Vazquez, Jorge; Mattocks, Craig

    2010-01-01

    Past studies have shown that the use of coarse resolution SST products such as from the real-time global (RTG) SST analysis[1] or other coarse resolution once-a-day products do not properly portray the diurnal variability of fluxes of heat and moisture from the ocean that drive the formation of low level clouds and precipitation over the ocean. For example, the use of high resolution MODIS SST composite [2] to initialize the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) (ARW) [3] has been shown to improve the prediction of sensible weather parameters in coastal regions [4][5}. In an extend study, [6] compared the MODIS SST composite product to the RTG SST analysis and evaluated forecast differences for a 6 month period from March through August 2007 over the Florida coastal regions. In a comparison to buoy data, they found that that the MODIS SST composites reduced the bias and standard deviation over that of the RTG data. These improvements led to significant changes in the initial and forecasted heat fluxes and the resulting surface temperature fields, wind patterns, and cloud distributions. They also showed that the MODIS composite SST product, produced for the Terra and Aqua satellite overpass times, captured a component of the diurnal cycle in SSTs not represented in the RTG or other one-a-day SST analyses. Failure to properly incorporate these effects in the WRF initialization cycle led to temperature biases in the resulting short term forecasts. The forecast impact was limited in some situations however, due to composite product inaccuracies brought about by data latency during periods of long-term cloud cover. This paper focuses on the forecast impact of an enhanced MODIS/AMSR-E composite SST product designed to reduce inaccuracies due data latency in the MODIS only composite product.

  15. Extravehicular Activity (EVA) Technology Development Status and Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chullen, Cinda; Westheimer, David T.

    2010-01-01

    Beginning in Fiscal Year (FY) 2011, Extravehicular activity (EVA) technology development became a technology foundational domain under a new program Enabling Technology Development and Demonstration. The goal of the EVA technology effort is to further develop technologies that will be used to demonstrate a robust EVA system that has application for a variety of future missions including microgravity and surface EVA. Overall the objectives will be reduce system mass, reduce consumables and maintenance, increase EVA hardware robustness and life, increase crew member efficiency and autonomy, and enable rapid vehicle egress and ingress. Over the past several years, NASA realized a tremendous increase in EVA system development as part of the Exploration Technology Development Program and the Constellation Program. The evident demand for efficient and reliable EVA technologies, particularly regenerable technologies was apparent under these former programs and will continue to be needed as future mission opportunities arise. The technological need for EVA in space has been realized over the last several decades by the Gemini, Apollo, Skylab, Space Shuttle, and the International Space Station (ISS) programs. EVAs were critical to the success of these programs. Now with the ISS extension to 2028 in conjunction with a current forecasted need of at least eight EVAs per year, the EVA technology life and limited availability of the EMUs will become a critical issue eventually. The current Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU) has vastly served EVA demands by performing critical operations to assemble the ISS and provide repairs of satellites such as the Hubble Space Telescope. However, as the life of ISS and the vision for future mission opportunities are realized, a new EVA systems capability could be an option for the future mission applications building off of the technology development over the last several years. Besides ISS, potential mission applications include EVAs for

  16. Analysis of Technology and Hydrological Regime Changes Induced Errors of Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balint, G.; Rozsa, K.; Bartha, P.

    Real time hydrological forecasting results inevitable contain some errors. The source of the difference between calculated and observed values can be most diverse. In- put data of forecasting models are themselves not the true estimates of the ongoing processes U it can be followed by comparing operationally computed water levels with those checked and corrected on annual basis as they appear in hydrological year- books. Modelling errors are the most common ones and systematic or regular parts of those are often compensated by appropriate updating procedures. ARMA techniques are frequently used, but in most cases for major part of this error component can be compensated by n-step autoregressive procedure where n is a sufficiently low number. Basic statements are illustrated by the history of short term water level forecasting on the Hungarian section of the Danube. No strict calculation algorithm or defined tech- nique was used in the 1950s the forecast was the product of subjective judgement by an (usually) experienced forecaster. A simple linear regression expression was used in the 60s, early 70s often combined with results of an empirical flood routing tech- nique and/or during floods with results of graphical correlation technique used for flood crest forecasting. Most of the 70s and till mid-1980s the empirical flood routing technique developed by Szesztay remained in use, combined with flood crests fore- casting. The age of micro-computes changed the approaches in use. A flood routing model based on DLCM later combined with rainfall-runoff models (GAPI) took over as tool for daily forecasting. The graphical flood crests forecasting was replaced by a multivariate linear or polynomial regression technique. The change of techniques and more advanced technology was not followed by clear improvement represented by decreasing errors. This is mostly due to changes in hydrological regime for low flow periods often having the impact of the peak regime of hydro power

  17. Case studies on forecasting for innovative technologies: frequent revisions improve accuracy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lerner, Jeffrey C; Robertson, Diane C; Goldstein, Sara M

    2015-02-01

    Health technology forecasting is designed to provide reliable predictions about costs, utilization, diffusion, and other market realities before the technologies enter routine clinical use. In this article we address three questions central to forecasting's usefulness: Are early forecasts sufficiently accurate to help providers acquire the most promising technology and payers to set effective coverage policies? What variables contribute to inaccurate forecasts? How can forecasters manage the variables to improve accuracy? We analyzed forecasts published between 2007 and 2010 by the ECRI Institute on four technologies: single-room proton beam radiation therapy for various cancers; digital breast tomosynthesis imaging technology for breast cancer screening; transcatheter aortic valve replacement for serious heart valve disease; and minimally invasive robot-assisted surgery for various cancers. We then examined revised ECRI forecasts published in 2013 (digital breast tomosynthesis) and 2014 (the other three topics) to identify inaccuracies in the earlier forecasts and explore why they occurred. We found that five of twenty early predictions were inaccurate when compared with the updated forecasts. The inaccuracies pertained to two technologies that had more time-sensitive variables to consider. The case studies suggest that frequent revision of forecasts could improve accuracy, especially for complex technologies whose eventual use is governed by multiple interactive factors. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

  18. Fusion of Hurricane Models and Observations: Developing the Technology to Improve the Forecasts Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Develop the technology to provide the fusion of observations and operational model simulations to help improve the understanding and forecasting of hurricane...

  19. CSIR Technology Impact 1990

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    CSIR

    1990-01-01

    Full Text Available Technology impact report, it’s a selection of report on successful co-operation between the CSIR and South African industry in 1989/1990. This publication aims to measure and highlight the success of the CSIR outputs....

  20. CSIR Technology Impact 2001

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    CSIR

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available This issue of Technology Impact offers a brief snapshot of CSIR activities during the year under review (1 March 2000 - 28 February 2001) by highlighting a number of innovative projects and initiatives in these areas. It present a rich canvas...

  1. A patent survey case: how could technological forecasting help cosmetic chemists with product innovation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domicio Da Silva Souza, Ivan; Juliana Pinheiro, Bárbara; Passarini Takahashi, Vania

    2012-01-01

    Patents represent a free and open source of data for studying innovation and forecasting technological trends. Thus, we suggest that new discussions about the role of patent information are needed. To illustrate the relevance of this issue, we performed a survey of patents involving skin care products, which were granted by the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) between 2006 and 2010, to identify opportunities for innovation and technological trends. We quantified the use of technologies in 333 patents. We plotted a life cycle of technologies related to natural ingredients. We also determined the cross impact of the technologies identified. We observed technologies related to processes applied to cosmetics (2.2%), functional packaging and applicators (2.9%), excipients and active compounds (21.5%), and cosmetic preparations (73.5%). Further, 21.6% of the patents were related to the use of natural ingredients. Several opportunities for innovation were discussed throughout this paper, for example, the use of peptides as active compounds or intracellular carriers (only 3.9% of the technologies in cosmetic preparations). We also observed technological cross impacts that suggested a trend toward multifunctional cosmetics, among others. Patent surveys may help researchers with product innovation because they allow us to identify available and unexplored technologies and turn them into whole new concepts.

  2. A Study to Determine the Evolution of Advances in Medical Technology Expected in the Next 25 Years and Possible Impacts on Coast Guard Operation and Support Programs. Appendix D. Literature Search of Forecasts Relevant to Medical Technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-05-01

    inc’emlng 1. tiea the cost of living increase. Helth officalis 2nd physic.: " identify the following trends over next decade pubiic scrutiny and effort... crisis in rural areas is regarded as solved. Subforecasts: Year Forecast Made: 1977 Year of Occurrence: 1987 Assumptions: Probability: Medium Method...Intuitive single individual expert in field Source: Robert D. Graham, M.D. Reference: "Manpower Crisis in Rural Areas to be Over Within Ten Years

  3. Forecasting and observability: critical technologies for system operations with high PV penetration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alet, Pierre-Jean; Efthymiou, Venizelos; Graditi, Giorgio

    2016-01-01

    Forecasting and monitoring technologies for photovoltaics are required on different spatial and temporal scales by multiple actors, from the owners of PV systems to transmission system operators. In this paper the Grid integration working group of the European Technology and Innovation Platform...... – Photovoltaics (ETIP PV) reviews the different use cases for these technologies, their current status, and the need for future developments. Power system operations require a real-time view of PV production for managing power reserves and for feeding shortterm forecasts. They also require forecasts on all...... for a cost/benefit analysis since the forecasting error can be linked to the prices charged for energy imbalance...

  4. An assessment of the value of seasonal forecasting technology for Western Australian farmers

    OpenAIRE

    Petersen, Elizabeth H.; Fraser, Rob W.

    2001-01-01

    Of the number of seasonal forecasting systems that have been developed of late, none are of practical benefit to Western Australian farmers. This study aims to improve the methodology for assessing the value of forecasting technology ex ante to its development, using the Merredin agricultural region of Western Australia as an illustration. Results suggest that a seasonal forecasting technology that provides a 30 per cent decrease in seasonal uncertainty increases annual profits by approximate...

  5. A past discharge assimilation system for ensemble streamflow forecasts over France – Part 2: Impact on the ensemble streamflow forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Thirel

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available The use of ensemble streamflow forecasts is developing in the international flood forecasting services. Ensemble streamflow forecast systems can provide more accurate forecasts and useful information about the uncertainty of the forecasts, thus improving the assessment of risks. Nevertheless, these systems, like all hydrological forecasts, suffer from errors on initialization or on meteorological data, which lead to hydrological prediction errors. This article, which is the second part of a 2-part article, concerns the impacts of initial states, improved by a streamflow assimilation system, on an ensemble streamflow prediction system over France. An assimilation system was implemented to improve the streamflow analysis of the SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU (SIM hydro-meteorological suite, which initializes the ensemble streamflow forecasts at Météo-France. This assimilation system, using the Best Linear Unbiased Estimator (BLUE and modifying the initial soil moisture states, showed an improvement of the streamflow analysis with low soil moisture increments. The final states of this suite were used to initialize the ensemble streamflow forecasts of Météo-France, which are based on the SIM model and use the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF 10-day Ensemble Prediction System (EPS. Two different configurations of the assimilation system were used in this study: the first with the classical SIM model and the second using improved soil physics in ISBA. The effects of the assimilation system on the ensemble streamflow forecasts were assessed for these two configurations, and a comparison was made with the original (i.e. without data assimilation and without the improved physics ensemble streamflow forecasts. It is shown that the assimilation system improved most of the statistical scores usually computed for the validation of ensemble predictions (RMSE, Brier Skill Score and its decomposition, Ranked Probability Skill Score, False Alarm

  6. Forecasting and observability: critical technologies for system operations with high PV penetration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alet, Pierre-Jean; Efthymiou, Venizelos; Graditi, Giorgio

    2016-01-01

    Forecasting and monitoring technologies for photovoltaics are required on different spatial and temporal scales by multiple actors, from the owners of PV systems to transmission system operators. In this paper the Grid integration working group of the European Technology and Innovation Platform –...... for a cost/benefit analysis since the forecasting error can be linked to the prices charged for energy imbalance......Forecasting and monitoring technologies for photovoltaics are required on different spatial and temporal scales by multiple actors, from the owners of PV systems to transmission system operators. In this paper the Grid integration working group of the European Technology and Innovation Platform...... – Photovoltaics (ETIP PV) reviews the different use cases for these technologies, their current status, and the need for future developments. Power system operations require a real-time view of PV production for managing power reserves and for feeding shortterm forecasts. They also require forecasts on all...

  7. Review of methods for forecasting the market penetration of new technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gilshannon, S.T.; Brown, D.R.

    1996-12-01

    In 1993 the DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EE) initiated a program called Quality Metrics. Quality Metrics was developed to measure the costs and benefits of technologies being developed by EE R&D programs. The impact of any new technology is directly related to its adoption by the market. The techniques employed to project market adoption are critical to measuring a new technology`s impact. Our purpose was to review current market penetration theories and models and develop a recommended approach for evaluating the market penetration of DOE technologies. The following commonly cited innovation diffusion theories were reviewed to identify analytical approaches relevant to new energy technologies: (1) the normal noncumulative adopter distribution method, (2) the Bass Model, (3) the Mansfield-Blackman Model, (4) the Fisher-Pry Model, (5) a meta-analysis of innovation diffusion studies. Of the theories reviewed, the Bass and Mansfield-Blackman models were found most applicable to forecasting the market penetration of electricity supply technologies. Their algorithms require input estimates which characterize the technology adoption behavior of the electricity supply industry. But, inadequate work has been done to quantify the technology adoption characteristics of this industry. The following energy technology market penetration models were also reviewed: (1) DOE`s Renewable Energy Penetration (REP) Model, (2) DOE`s Electricity Capacity Planning Submodule of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), (3) the Assessment of Energy Technologies (ASSET) model by Regional Economic Research, Inc., (4) the Market TREK model by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). The two DOE models were developed for electricity generation technologies whereas the Regional Economic Research and EPRI models were designed for demand- side energy technology markets. Therefore, the review and evaluation focused on the DOE models.

  8. A past discharge assimilation system for ensemble streamflow forecasts over France – Part 2: Impact on the ensemble streamflow forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Thirel

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available The use of ensemble streamflow forecasts is developing in the international flood forecasting services. Such systems can provide more accurate forecasts and useful information about the uncertainty of the forecasts, thus improving the assessment of risks. Nevertheless, these systems, like all hydrological forecasts, suffer from errors on initialization or on meteorological data, which lead to hydrological prediction errors. This article, which is the second part of a 2-part article, concerns the impacts of initial states, improved by a streamflow assimilation system, on an ensemble streamflow prediction system over France. An assimilation system was implemented to improve the streamflow analysis of the SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU (SIM hydro-meteorological suite, which initializes the ensemble streamflow forecasts at Météo-France. This assimilation system, using the Best Linear Unbiased Estimator (BLUE and modifying the initial soil moisture states, showed an improvement of the streamflow analysis with low soil moisture increments. The final states of this suite were used to initialize the ensemble streamflow forecasts of Météo-France, which are based on the SIM model and use the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF 10-day Ensemble Prediction System (EPS. Two different configurations of the assimilation system were used in this study: the first with the classical SIM model and the second using improved soil physics in ISBA. The effects of the assimilation system on the ensemble streamflow forecasts were assessed for these two configurations, and a comparison was made with the original (i.e. without data assimilation and without the improved physics ensemble streamflow forecasts. It is shown that the assimilation system improved most of the statistical scores usually computed for the validation of ensemble predictions (RMSE, Brier Skill Score and its decomposition, Ranked Probability Skill Score, False Alarm Rate, etc., especially

  9. Case studies of extended model-based flood forecasting: prediction of dike strength and flood impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuparu, Dana; Bachmann, Daniel; Bogaard, Tom; Twigt, Daniel; Verkade, Jan; de Bruijn, Karin; de Leeuw, Annemargreet

    2017-04-01

    Flood forecasts, warning and emergency response are important components in flood risk management. Most flood forecasting systems use models to translate weather predictions to forecasted discharges or water levels. However, this information is often not sufficient for real time decisions. A sound understanding of the reliability of embankments and flood dynamics is needed to react timely and reduce the negative effects of the flood. Where are the weak points in the dike system? When, how much and where the water will flow? When and where is the greatest impact expected? Model-based flood impact forecasting tries to answer these questions by adding new dimensions to the existing forecasting systems by providing forecasted information about: (a) the dike strength during the event (reliability), (b) the flood extent in case of an overflow or a dike failure (flood spread) and (c) the assets at risk (impacts). This work presents three study-cases in which such a set-up is applied. Special features are highlighted. Forecasting of dike strength. The first study-case focusses on the forecast of dike strength in the Netherlands for the river Rhine branches Waal, Nederrijn and IJssel. A so-called reliability transformation is used to translate the predicted water levels at selected dike sections into failure probabilities during a flood event. The reliability of a dike section is defined by fragility curves - a summary of the dike strength conditional to the water level. The reliability information enhances the emergency management and inspections of embankments. Ensemble forecasting. The second study-case shows the setup of a flood impact forecasting system in Dumfries, Scotland. The existing forecasting system is extended with a 2D flood spreading model in combination with the Delft-FIAT impact model. Ensemble forecasts are used to make use of the uncertainty in the precipitation forecasts, which is useful to quantify the certainty of a forecasted flood event. From global

  10. Seasonal forecasting and health impact models: challenges and opportunities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballester, Joan; Lowe, Rachel; Diggle, Peter J; Rodó, Xavier

    2016-10-01

    After several decades of intensive research, steady improvements in understanding and modeling the climate system have led to the development of the first generation of operational health early warning systems in the era of climate services. These schemes are based on collaborations across scientific disciplines, bringing together real-time climate and health data collection, state-of-the-art seasonal climate predictions, epidemiological impact models based on historical data, and an understanding of end user and stakeholder needs. In this review, we discuss the challenges and opportunities of this complex, multidisciplinary collaboration, with a focus on the factors limiting seasonal forecasting as a source of predictability for climate impact models. © 2016 New York Academy of Sciences.

  11. A formulation of multidimensional growth models for the assessment and forecast of technology attributes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danner, Travis W.

    . A lone researcher may be able to identify the physical limitation to a single attribute of a simple system; however, as system complexity and the number of attributes increases, the attention of researchers from multiple fields of study is required. Thus, limit identification is itself an area of research and development requiring some level of investment. Whether estimated by physics or regression-based approaches, predicted limits will always have some degree of uncertainty. This research takes the approach of quantifying the impact of that uncertainty on model forecasts rather than heavily endorsing a single technique to limit identification. In addition to formulating the multidimensional growth model, this research provides a systematic procedure for applying that model to specific technology architectures. Researchers and decision-makers are able to investigate the potential for additional improvement within that technology architecture and to estimate the expected cost of each incremental improvement relative to the cost of past improvements. In this manner, multidimensional growth models provide the necessary information to set reasonable program goals for the further evolution of a particular technological approach or to establish the need for revolutionary approaches in light of the constraining limits of conventional approaches.

  12. Observation impact in short-range ensemble forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Necker, Tobias; Weissmann, Martin; Sommer, Matthias

    2017-04-01

    Observation impact assessment offers a great potential for convective-scale data assimilation. It provides information on the contribution of various observations to the observing system and is crucial for the refinement of the observing network as well as the data assimilation system. In the framework of the Hans-Ertel Centre for Weather Research (HErZ), a method for an ensemble-based approximation of observation impact using an observation-based verification metric was developed over the past years. Instead of the subsequent analysis, the method uses subsequent observations for verification that are considerably more independent from the forecast. Recently, the method was adapted to use independent observation types for verification. Results of the impact assessment using radar-derived precipitation observations for verification are presented. Furthermore the impact time of different observation types is investigated. The study covers the high impact weather period in summer 2016 using the pre-operational convective-scale ensemble system of Deutscher Wetterdienst (KENDA/COSMO-DE).

  13. Forecasting, Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael A. Fosberg

    1987-01-01

    Future improvements in the meteorological forecasts used in fire management will come from improvements in three areas: observational systems, forecast techniques, and postprocessing of forecasts and better integration of this information into the fire management process.

  14. COMPUTER MODELING AS ONE OF CONTEMPORARY METHODS OF FORECASTING IN PHARMACEUTICAL TECHNOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. O. Losenkova

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The work presents researches devoted to the forecasting of compatibility of additive and drug substances with a method of computer modeling for its use in composition elaboration and technology of transdermal therapeutic systems.

  15. On the impact of bias correcting and conditioning precipitation inputs on seasonal streamflow forecast quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crochemore, Louise; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Pappenberger, Florian; Perrin, Charles

    2017-04-01

    Skillful seasonal streamflow forecasts are increasingly requested for decision-making in areas such as drought risk assessment or reservoir management. Meteorological forcing can be the major source of uncertainty in seasonal forecasts as early as in the first month of the forecast period. The choice of the hydrological model inputs thus has a major impact on the quality of generated streamflow forecasts. In this study, we assess the impact of two types of precipitation forecast post-treatment: 1) bias correction and 2) conditioning, on streamflow forecast quality. We first evaluated several bias correction approaches and conditioned precipitation scenarios in sixteen catchments in France, with the help of ECMWF System 4 seasonal precipitation forecasts and the GR6J hydrological model. The results show that, in most catchments, raw seasonal precipitation and streamflow forecasts are often sharper than the conventional ESP method. However, they are not significantly better in terms of reliability. Forecast skill is generally improved when applying bias correction. The empirical distribution mapping of daily values was successful in improving forecast reliability, but sometimes at the expense of forecast sharpness. We also evaluated several conditioning methods based on ECMWF System 4 precipitation forecasts to generate seasonal streamflow forecasts in the same sixteen catchments. Four precipitation indices based on System 4 precipitation were used to condition historical streamflow or historical precipitations to be used as input to the GR6J model. Our results evaluate how the conditioning impacts the reliability and sharpness of streamflow forecasts, as well as forecasts of drought indices. We show that conditioning past observations based on the three-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI3) can improve the sharpness of ensemble forecasts based on historical data, but also often decrease reliability. References: Crochemore, L., Ramos, M.-H., and Pappenberger

  16. The Modeling and Forecasting of the Technological and Innovation Development of a Transition-Economy Country

    OpenAIRE

    Kononenko, Igor; Repin, Anton

    2006-01-01

    The rule of GDP change influence on the investment inflows into the country’s economy for transition-economy countries has been found. The method for forecasting the innovational and scientific-technological development of a country, based on consequent use of simulation model of innovational and scientific-technological development of a country and of the method of forecasting the investment inflows into economy has been developed. The method was tested on the Ukrainian statistical data for ...

  17. Predicting and Mitigating Socioeconomic Impacts of Extreme Space Weather: Benefits of Improved Forecasts (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanekal, S. G.; Baker, D. N.

    2013-12-01

    Vulnerability of society to severe space weather is an issue of increasing worldwide concern. A notable example is that electric power networks connecting widely separated geographic areas may incur debilitating damage induced by geomagnetic storms. The conclusion of a recent National Research Council report was that harsh space weather events can cause tens of millions to many billions of dollars of damage to space and ground-based assets during major solar storms. The most extreme events could cause months-long power outages and could cost in excess of one trillion dollars. In this presentation, we discuss broad socioeconomic impacts of space weather and also discuss the immense potential benefits of improved space weather forecasts. Such forecasts would be based on continuous observations of disturbances on the Sun and would take advantage of our increased understanding of the Earth's space environmental conditions and the causative solar drivers. We consider scenarios of how such observation-based forecasts could be used most effectively by policy makers and technology management officials.

  18. Computer-Aided Analysis of Patents for Product Technology Maturity Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Yanhong; Gan, Dequan; Guo, Yingchun; Zhang, Peng

    Product technology maturity foresting is vital for any enterprises to hold the chance for innovation and keep competitive for a long term. The Theory of Invention Problem Solving (TRIZ) is acknowledged both as a systematic methodology for innovation and a powerful tool for technology forecasting. Based on TRIZ, the state -of-the-art on the technology maturity of product and the limits of application are discussed. With the application of text mining and patent analysis technologies, this paper proposes a computer-aided approach for product technology maturity forecasting. It can overcome the shortcomings of the current methods.

  19. Past speculations of future health technologies: a description of technologies predicted in 15 forecasting studies published between 1986 and 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doos, Lucy; Packer, Claire; Ward, Derek; Simpson, Sue; Stevens, Andrew

    2017-07-31

    To describe and classify health technologies predicted in forecasting studies. A portrait describing health technologies predicted in 15 forecasting studies published between 1986 and 2010 that were identified in a previous systematic review. Health technologies are classified according to their type, purpose and clinical use; relating these to the original purpose and timing of the forecasting studies. All health-related technologies predicted in 15 forecasting studies identified in a previously published systematic review. Outcomes related to (1) each forecasting study including country, year, intention and forecasting methods used and (2) the predicted technologies including technology type, purpose, targeted clinical area and forecast timeframe. Of the 896 identified health-related technologies, 685 (76.5%) were health technologies with an explicit or implied health application and included in our study. Of these, 19.1% were diagnostic or imaging tests, 14.3% devices or biomaterials, 12.6% information technology systems, eHealth or mHealth and 12% drugs. The majority of the technologies were intended to treat or manage disease (38.1%) or diagnose or monitor disease (26.1%). The most frequent targeted clinical areas were infectious diseases followed by cancer, circulatory and nervous system disorders. The most frequent technology types were for: infectious diseases-prophylactic vaccines (45.8%), cancer-drugs (40%), circulatory disease-devices and biomaterials (26.3%), and diseases of the nervous system-equally devices and biomaterials (25%) and regenerative medicine (25%). The mean timeframe for forecasting was 11.6 years (range 0-33 years, median=10, SD=6.6). The forecasting timeframe significantly differed by technology type (p=0.002), the intent of the forecasting group (p<0.001) and the methods used (p<001). While description and classification of predicted health-related technologies is crucial in preparing healthcare systems for adopting new innovations

  20. Assessing public forecasts to encourage accountability: The case of MIT's Technology Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, Jeffrey

    2017-01-01

    Although high degrees of reliability have been found for many types of forecasts purportedly due to the existence of accountability, public forecasts of technology are rarely assessed and continue to have a poor reputation. This paper's analysis of forecasts made by MIT's Technology Review provides a rare assessment and thus a means to encourage accountability. It first shows that few of the predicted "breakthrough technologies" currently have large markets. Only four have sales greater than $10 billion while eight technologies not predicted by Technology Review have sales greater than $10 billion including three with greater than $100 billion and one other with greater than $50 billion. Second, possible reasons for these poor forecasts are then discussed including an over emphasis on the science-based process of technology change, sometimes called the linear model of innovation. Third, this paper describes a different model of technology change, one that is widely used by private companies and that explains the emergence of those technologies that have greater than $10 billion in sales. Fourth, technology change and forecasts are discussed in terms of cognitive biases and mental models.

  1. The value of improved wind power forecasting: Grid flexibility quantification, ramp capability analysis, and impacts of electricity market operation timescales

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Qin; Wu, Hongyu; Florita, Anthony R.; Brancucci Martinez-Anido, Carlo; Hodge, Bri-Mathias

    2016-12-01

    The value of improving wind power forecasting accuracy at different electricity market operation timescales was analyzed by simulating the IEEE 118-bus test system as modified to emulate the generation mixes of the Midcontinent, California, and New England independent system operator balancing authority areas. The wind power forecasting improvement methodology and error analysis for the data set were elaborated. Production cost simulation was conducted on the three emulated systems with a total of 480 scenarios, considering the impacts of different generation technologies, wind penetration levels, and wind power forecasting improvement timescales. The static operational flexibility of the three systems was compared through the diversity of generation mix, the percentage of must-run baseload generators, as well as the available ramp rate and the minimum generation levels. The dynamic operational flexibility was evaluated by the real-time upward and downward ramp capacity. Simulation results show that the generation resource mix plays a crucial role in evaluating the value of improved wind power forecasting at different timescales. In addition, the changes in annual operational electricity generation costs were mostly influenced by the dominant resource in the system. Finally, the impacts of pumped-storage resources, generation ramp rates, and system minimum generation level requirements on the value of improved wind power forecasting were also analyzed.

  2. Impact of rainfall spatial variability on Flash Flood Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douinot, Audrey; Roux, Hélène; Garambois, Pierre-André; Larnier, Kevin

    2014-05-01

    According to the United States National Hazard Statistics database, flooding and flash flooding have caused the largest number of deaths of any weather-related phenomenon over the last 30 years (Flash Flood Guidance Improvement Team, 2003). Like the storms that cause them, flash floods are very variable and non-linear phenomena in time and space, with the result that understanding and anticipating flash flood genesis is far from straightforward. In the U.S., the Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) estimates the average number of inches of rainfall for given durations required to produce flash flooding in the indicated county. In Europe, flash flood often occurred on small catchments (approximately 100 km2) and it has been shown that the spatial variability of rainfall has a great impact on the catchment response (Le Lay and Saulnier, 2007). Therefore, in this study, based on the Flash flood Guidance method, rainfall spatial variability information is introduced in the threshold estimation. As for FFG, the threshold is the number of millimeters of rainfall required to produce a discharge higher than the discharge corresponding to the first level (yellow) warning of the French flood warning service (SCHAPI: Service Central d'Hydrométéorologie et d'Appui à la Prévision des Inondations). The indexes δ1 and δ2 of Zoccatelli et al. (2010), based on the spatial moments of catchment rainfall, are used to characterize the rainfall spatial distribution. Rainfall spatial variability impacts on warning threshold and on hydrological processes are then studied. The spatially distributed hydrological model MARINE (Roux et al., 2011), dedicated to flash flood prediction is forced with synthetic rainfall patterns of different spatial distributions. This allows the determination of a warning threshold diagram: knowing the spatial distribution of the rainfall forecast and therefore the 2 indexes δ1 and δ2, the threshold value is read on the diagram. A warning threshold diagram is

  3. Impact of Information Exchange on Supplier Forecasting Performance

    OpenAIRE

    Trapero Arenas, Juan; Kourentzes, Nikolaos; Fildes, Robert

    2012-01-01

    Forecasts of demand are crucial to drive supply chains and enterprise resource planning systems. Usually, well-known univariate methods that work automatically such as exponential smoothing are employed to accomplish such forecasts. The traditional Supply Chain relies on a decentralized system where each member feeds its own Forecasting Support System (FSS) with incoming orders from direct customers. Nevertheless, other collaboration schemes are also possible, for instance, the InformationExc...

  4. Impact of AIRS Thermodynamic Profile on Regional Weather Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, Shih-Hung; Zavodsky, Brad; Jedlovee, Gary

    2010-01-01

    Prudent assimilation of AIRS thermodynamic profiles and quality indicators can improve initial conditions for regional weather models. AIRS-enhanced analysis has warmer and moister PBL. Forecasts with AIRS profiles are generally closer to NAM analyses than CNTL. Assimilation of AIRS leads to an overall QPF improvement in 6-h accumulated precipitation forecasts. Including AIRS profiles in assimilation process enhances the moist instability and produces stronger updrafts and a better precipitation forecast than the CNTL run.

  5. Research on Forecast Technology of Mine Gas Emission Based on Fuzzy Data Mining(FDM)

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Chang-kai; WANG Yao-cai; WANG Jun-wei

    2004-01-01

    The safe production of coalmine can be further improved by forecasting the quantity of gas emission based on the real-time data and historical data which the gas monitoring system has saved. By making use of the advantages of data warehouse and data mining technology for processing large quantity of redundancy data, the method and its application of forecasting mine gas emission quantity based on FDM were studied. The constructing fuzzy resembling relation and clustering analysis were proposed, which the potential relationship inside the gas emission data may be found. The mode finds model and forecast model were presented, and the detailed approach to realize this forecast was also proposed, which have been applied to forecast the gas emission quantity efficiently.

  6. Seasonal Forecasts of Climate Indices: Impact of Definition and Spatial Aggregation on Predictive Skill

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhend, Jonas; Mahlstein, Irina; Liniger, Mark

    2016-04-01

    Seasonal forecasting models are increasingly being used to forecast application-relevant aspects. A simple way to make such user-oriented predictions are application-specific climate indices. Little is known, however, on how the predictive skill of forecasts of such climate indices relates to the predictive skill in forecasting seasonal mean conditions. Here we analyse forecasts of two types of indices derived from daily precipitation and temperature: counts of events such as the number of dry days and accumulated threshold exceedances such as degree days. We find that the predictive skill of forecasts of heating and cooling degree days and of consecutive dry days is generally lower than the skill of seasonal mean temperature and rainfall forecasts respectively. By use of a toy model we demonstrate that this reduction in skill is more pronounced for skilful forecasts and climate indices with a threshold in the tail of the statistical distribution. We further analyse the impact of spatial aggregation and find that aggregation generally improves the predictive skill. Using appropriate covariates for weighting - for example population density to derive a proxy for the national energy demand for heating - the usefulness of forecasts of climate indices can be further enhanced while retaining predictive skill. We conclude that processing of direct model output to derive climate indices in combination with spatial aggregation can be used to render still skilful and even more useful seasonal forecasts of user-relevant quantities.

  7. Intensity and Development Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones by the JMA High-Resolution Global NWP Model: Impacts of Resolution Enhancement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komori, T.; Kitagawa, H.

    2007-12-01

    It is widely considered that a spatial resolution of numerical weather prediction (NWP) model plays an important role for forecasting severe weather events such as tropical cyclones (TCs) and heavy rainfall. Under the KAKUSHIN project (funded by the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology), the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has developed a new Global Spectral Model (GSM) with a high horizontal resolution of about 20km and 60 vertical layers (hereafter called g20km GSMh), which is utilized to evaluate severe weather events in future climate. The 20km GSM will be operational in November 2007 replacing the current GSM with a horizontal resolution of about 60km and 40 vertical layers (hereafter called g60km GSMh). In the present study, we investigate how a model resolution impacts on TC forecasts because this resolution enhancement aims to improve the model's ability to forecast severe weather. Due to the more realistic model topography in higher horizontal resolution, the 20km GSM can give more accurate forecasts of orographic precipitation than the 60km GSM, especially over the area range of heavy precipitation. According to the statistically verified results, the enhancement of horizontal and vertical resolution appears to fairly improve the accuracy of TC intensity forecasts. However, for TC track forecasts, it may be more important to accurately represent large-scale environmental contexts surrounding the TC than to resolve the TC structure itself. In order to clarify resolution impacts on the TC intensity prediction, we categorize the TC intensity forecasts into three stages (development stage, maturation stage and dissipation stage). The results show that the effectiveness of the resolution enhancement is bigger in the development stage and relatively small in the maturation and dissipation stages. For the maturation and dissipation stages, improvement of physical processes seems to be more important than the resolution

  8. Impact of Public Aggregate Wind Forecasts on Electricity Market Outcomes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Exizidis, Lazaros; Kazempour, Jalal; Pinson, Pierre

    2017-01-01

    by offering better knowledge of the market operation, leading subsequently to a more competitive energy market. Driven by the above regulation, we consider an equilibrium study to address how public information of aggregate wind power forecasts can potentially affect market results, social welfare as well......Following a call to foster a transparent and more competitive market, member states of the European transmission system operator are required to publish, among other information, aggregate wind power forecasts. The publication of the latter information is expected to benefit market participants......-theoretic approach (diagonalization) is incorporated in order to investigate the existence of an equilibrium for various values of aggregate forecast. As anticipated, variations in public forecasts will affect market results and, more precisely, under-forecasts can mislead power producers to make decisions...

  9. PATTERNS OF SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT AND THEIR USE IN FORECASTING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. I. Komkov

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In article laws of scientifically-technological development are considered. Their number concern traditional, base and new, formed. Possibilities and ways of the account of the listed laws are shown at forecasting of prospects of scientifically-technological development.

  10. Forecasting the innovation and technology based economic development as a component of the choice of anti-crisis strategy

    OpenAIRE

    L. Fedulova

    2009-01-01

    The author reveals the role of the technology factor in crisis situations and justifies the significance of the mechanisms of technological forecasting in the choice of strategic guidelines of a country's development. She proposes a conceptual model of the system of scientifico-technological forecasting and shows its place in the innovation based renewal of economic activities.

  11. Forecasting the innovation and technology based economic development as a component of the choice of anti-crisis strategy

    OpenAIRE

    L. Fedulova

    2009-01-01

    The author reveals the role of the technology factor in crisis situations and justifies the significance of the mechanisms of technological forecasting in the choice of strategic guidelines of a country's development. She proposes a conceptual model of the system of scientifico-technological forecasting and shows its place in the innovation based renewal of economic activities.

  12. The Impact of Forecasting on Strategic Planning and Decision Making

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Nekky Umera

    strategies for the investment manager in relations to Nigeria stock market .... are two broad approaches to forecasting; subjective predictions based on intuition and ... There are two basic types of models that are used within the statistical.

  13. Image Science Technology Forecasting on offset printing:A Patent Analysis Approach

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Liu Yaojen

    2004-01-01

    Technology forecasting is a important approach which can help researcher to point out what will be of technology in the future. There are many well-developed approaches and methodologies can do technology forecasting well, for example S-curve analysis. Patent analysis is another way to analyze technology development trend. Patent is a kind of intellectual property right can help researcher avoid to infringe patent owned by competitor. Patent analysis can help researcher and corporate find out what are major technology trends and point out what field has low patent infringement risk.It will describe what patent analysis is briefly and how to process, and use patent analysis to analysis image reproduction technology trend. Offset printing technology is the main field discussed. When running analysis will follow the international patent classification (IPC) category and use USPTO patent database.

  14. Impact of festival factor on electric quantity multiplication forecast model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    This research aims to improve the forecasting precision of electric quantity. It is discovered that the total electricity consumption considerably increased during the Spring Festival by the analysis of the electric quantity time series from 2002 to 2007 in Shandong province. The festival factor is ascertained to be one of the important seasonal factors affecting the electric quantity fluctuations, and the multiplication model for forecasting is improved by introducing corresponding variables and parameters...

  15. Forecasting Tourist Arrivals in Greece and the Impact of Macroeconomic Shocks from the Countries of Tourists’ Origin

    OpenAIRE

    Gounoploulos, D.; Petmezas, D.; Santamaria, D.

    2012-01-01

    This paper generates short-term forecasts on tourist arrivals in Greece and performs impulse response analysis to measure the impact of macroeconomic shocks from the origin country on future tourism demand. We find the ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model outperforms exponential smoothing models in forecasting the direction of one year out of sample forecasts. However, this does not translate into point forecasting accuracy. Impulse response analysis on the impact of unemployment and tourists’ cost of livin...

  16. Impact of data assimilation on high-resolution rainfall forecasts: A spatial, seasonal, and category analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    V, Rakesh; Goswami, Prashant

    2015-01-01

    a limited area model (LAM), the impact of data assimilation is likely to depend on the background state through lateral boundary forcing; this may introduce certain seasonality in the impact of data assimilation on rainfall forecasting. It is also likely that the impact of data assimilation on forecasts will have certain spatial variability. Finally, owing to the convective nature of rainfall and the roles of parameterization scheme, the impact of data assimilation may depend on the category (intensity) of rainfall. Here these aspects for rainfall forecasts at high resolution were examined. Using a LAM (An advanced version of Weather Research and Forecasting Model), we have carried out twin simulations with and without data assimilation; the simulations without data assimilation are used as the benchmark for assessing the impact of data assimilation. Analysis of simulations for 40 sample days distributed over the years 2012-2014 over Karnataka (southern state in India) is carried out to estimate impact of data assimilation. Various statistical measures show that data assimilation improved the rainfall prediction in most cases; however, there is also strong seasonality and location dependence in impact of data assimilation. Our results also show that improvement due to data assimilation is higher/lower for lower/higher rainfall categories. Analysis shows that the cases where the initial states with data assimilation depart strongly from the first guess generally result in less or even negative impact. It is pointed out that the results have important implications in design of observation system and assessment of impact of forecasts.

  17. AIRS impact on the analysis and forecast track of tropical cyclone Nargis in a global data assimilation and forecasting system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reale, O.; Lau, W. K.; Susskind, J.; Brin, E.; Liu, E.; Riishojgaard, L. P.; Fuentes, M.; Rosenberg, R.

    2009-03-01

    Tropical cyclones in the northern Indian Ocean pose serious challenges to operational weather forecasting systems, partly due to their shorter lifespan and more erratic track, compared to those in the Atlantic and the Pacific. Moreover, the automated analyses of cyclones over the northern Indian Ocean, produced by operational global data assimilation systems (DASs), are generally of inferior quality than in other basins, partly because of asymmetric data distribution and the absence of targeted observations inside cyclones. In this work it is shown that the assimilation of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) temperature retrievals under partial cloudy conditions can significantly impact the representation of the cyclone Nargis (which caused devastating loss of life in Myanmar in May 2008) in a global DAS. Forecasts produced from these improved analyses by a global model produce substantially smaller track errors. The impact of the assimilation of clear-sky radiances on the same DAS and forecasting system is positive, but smaller than the one obtained by ingestion of AIRS retrievals, probably due to poorer coverage.

  18. The Impact of Assimilating Atmospheric Infrared Sounder Observation on the Forecast of Typhoon Tracks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chien-Ben Chou

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This work assesses the effects of assimilating atmospheric infrared sounder (AIRS observations on typhoon prediction using the three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR and forecasting system of the weather research and forecasting (WRF model. Two major parameters in the data assimilation scheme, the spatial decorrelation scale and the magnitude of the covariance matrix of the background error, are varied in forecast experiments for the track of typhoon Sinlaku over the Western Pacific. The results show that within a wide parameter range, the inclusion of the AIRS observation improves the prediction. Outside this range, notably when the decorrelation scale of the background error is set to a large value, forcing the assimilation of AIRS data leads to degradation of the forecast. This illustrates how the impact of satellite data on the forecast depends on the adjustable parameters for data assimilation. The parameter-sweeping framework is potentially useful for improving operational typhoon prediction.

  19. Comparison of Observation Impacts in Two Forecast Systems using Adjoint Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelaro, Ronald; Langland, Rolf; Todling, Ricardo

    2009-01-01

    An experiment is being conducted to compare directly the impact of all assimilated observations on short-range forecast errors in different operational forecast systems. We use the adjoint-based method developed by Langland and Baker (2004), which allows these impacts to be efficiently calculated. This presentation describes preliminary results for a "baseline" set of observations, including both satellite radiances and conventional observations, used by the Navy/NOGAPS and NASA/GEOS-5 forecast systems for the month of January 2007. In each system, about 65% of the total reduction in 24-h forecast error is provided by satellite observations, although the impact of rawinsonde, aircraft, land, and ship-based observations remains significant. Only a small majority (50- 55%) of all observations assimilated improves the forecast, while the rest degrade it. It is found that most of the total forecast error reduction comes from observations with moderate-size innovations providing small to moderate impacts, not from outliers with very large positive or negative innovations. In a global context, the relative impacts of the major observation types are fairly similar in each system, although regional differences in observation impact can be significant. Of particular interest is the fact that while satellite radiances have a large positive impact overall, they degrade the forecast in certain locations common to both systems, especially over land and ice surfaces. Ongoing comparisons of this type, with results expected from other operational centers, should lead to more robust conclusions about the impacts of the various components of the observing system as well as about the strengths and weaknesses of the methodologies used to assimilate them.

  20. The impact of economic fluctuations on earnings forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ata Molodpoor

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Previous studies in the area of earnings forecasts hold a common characteristic, they make no distinction as to the economic cycle when evaluating voluntary earnings disclosures. This paper presents an empirical investigation to study the relationship between actual as well as forecasted earnings and growth domestic product during the economic growth and recession on Tehran Stock Exchange. Using the information of 60 firms over the period of 2007-2012, the study has determined that there was a positive and meaningful relationship between earnings forecast and growth domestic product during economic growth. In addition, the study has determined a meaningful relationship between actual earnings and growth domestic product during the recession.

  1. Verification of ensemble forecasts of Mediterranean high-impact weather events against satellite observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-P. Chaboureau

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Ensemble forecasts at kilometre scale of two severe storms over the Mediterranean region are verified against satellite observations. In complement to assessing the forecasts against ground-based measurements, brightness temperature (BT images are computed from forecast fields and directly compared to BTs observed from satellite. The so-called model-to-satellite approach is very effective in identifying systematic errors in the prediction of cloud cover for BTs in the infrared window and in verifying the forecasted convective activity with BTs in the microwave range. This approach is combined with the calculation of meteorological scores for an objective evaluation of ensemble forecasts. The application of the approach is shown in the context of two Mediterranean case studies, a tropical-like storm and a heavy precipitating event. Assessment of cloud cover and convective activity using satellite observations in the infrared (10.8 μm and microwave regions (183–191 GHz provides results consistent with other traditional methods using rainfall measurements. In addition, for the tropical-like storm, differences among forecasts occur much earlier in terms of cloud cover and deep convective activity than they do in terms of deepening and track. Further, the underdispersion of the ensemble forecasts of the two high-impact weather events is easily identified with satellite diagnostics. This suggests that such an approach could be a useful method for verifying ensemble forecasts, particularly in data-sparse regions.

  2. Technology Reconciliation in the Remote Sensing ERA of United States Civilian Weather Forecasting: 1957 -1987.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Courain, Margaret Eileen

    This dissertation seeks to advance an understanding of the management of a major technological change in meteorology. The study examines the connection between changes in production and real-time use of data products derived from remote -sensing data collection and the evolution of U.S. civilian weather forecasting 1957-1987. The role of data collection in weather forecasting throughout history is examined, giving most attention to the 1957-1987 period. Critical to the real-time use of remote-sensing data was technology reconciliation. As defined by the author, it is the function or process by which data products and information derived from a new technology are made consistent or congruent with the existing data representations of a science in order to be used effectively. No model had been developed for a technology reconciliation process, or definition of the major role technology reconciliators played in the 30-year evolution of the science of weather forecasting. In order to assess the new remote-sensing data resource and its use in U.S. civilian weather forecasting, a Data Accountability and Review Technique (DART) was developed by the author in 1989. This technique was used to identify 16 of the technology reconciliators who developed and reconciled 25 new remote-sensing data products with the weather charts, maps and computer models of the National Weather Service. In five separate program teams, they were responsible for 15 improvements in the products--forecasts--and 18 improvement in the process of weather forecasting. A model of the technology reconciliation is proposed which can be applied to understanding the contemporary history of other sciences. The model, as well as the methods developed by the author to recognize the process of technology reconciliation has a much more general applicability beyond the sciences. Any field implementing new technology that promises to improve its whole way of working will be faced with the task of technology

  3. Impact of Renewable Energy Forecast Imperfections on Market-Clearing Outcomes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ordoudis, Christos; Pinson, Pierre

    2016-01-01

    . Hence, innovative market structures have been proposed to cope with the uncertainty introduced. Nonetheless, the quality of wind power forecasts may affect the market outcome due to their inaccuracy. For this reason, a framework is proposed to examine market-clearing algorithms, both deterministic...... and stochastic approaches, under imperfect wind power forecasts in order to quantify their influence on the market outcome. Results show that mean value mismatch between “estimated” and “realized” distributions has the highest impact on total system cost. Finally, it is examined if cost recovery for market...... players is guaranteed in the presence of inaccurate wind power forecasts....

  4. Impacts of Potential Aircraft Observations on Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones Over the Western North Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-01

    OBSERVATIONS ON FORECASTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC by Mark C. Mitchell December 2014 Thesis Co-Advisors: Patrick A. Harr...COVERED Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE IMPACTS OF POTENTIAL AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS ON FORECASTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES OVER THE WESTERN NORTH...of the storm inner core. 14. SUBJECT TERMS Global Hawk, Tropical Cyclone Reconnaissance, Observations, Data Assimilation, Numerical Weather

  5. The impact of observations on Mesoscale Model forecasts of three-hourly rainfall accumulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, S. R.; Graham, R. J.; Bader, M. J.

    2000-09-01

    The aim of data-impact studies at the UK Met. Office is to investigate how observations affect the accuracy of model forecasts. Results from such experiments provide useful evidence on which to base the design of observational networks. This project, using a case study approach, investigated the relative benefit of different observation types within The Met. Office's Mesoscale Model domain on forecasts of three-hourly precipitation accumulation over the UK up to 12 hours ahead. The method used assesses the impact of assimilating single observation types, or a limited combination of types, where impact is measured against a control forecast obtained after a dummy assimilation using no observations. In experiments for 13 case studies, the observation types that most frequently provided a beneficial impact when presented alone to the assimilation were sonde data, surface data and data from the Moisture Observation Processing System (MOPS).

  6. Forecast of technological development in ore mining branches on basis of modernization of technique and technology of mining practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandr Ivanovich Tatarkin

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Pro forma data for exploration of mineral raw material base of some territories Ural regions are given. Perspective trajectories of development of mineral raw complex of federal subjects Russia’s are characterized. On this basis are highlighted groups of region — saving, reducing, raising the level of raw specialization or diversifying own economy. Peculiarities of forecasting technological development in ore mining branches in the period of planned economy of the USSR are illustrated. Indexes of successfully working iron-ore open casts are given. Theraise of internal Russian demand on raw is grounded, for which satisfaction are needed:corresponding tax policy for innovative production, corporate innovative policy, creating fund of supporting ore mining, commercialization of scientific products and working out rules in the sphere of scientific and technical progress. Peculiarities of technological development of ore mining branches of industry are emphasized: necessity of modernization of enterprises and exploration of deposits in regions with not enough developed infrastructure and opportunity of using new system approach by forecasting. Thestages ofeffectiveexploration of deposits and the parameters of developing ore mining enterprises arefound out. Components of forecast of technological development are analyzed. World tendencies of developing ore mining industry and basic directions of forecast of developing ore mining branches are given. New effective technologies being used in the ore mining are analyzed in detail.

  7. Broadband Traffic Forecasting in the Transport Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valentina Radojičić

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a modification of traffic forecast model generated by residential and small business (SOHO, Small Office Home Office users. The model includes forecasted values of different relevant factors and competition on broadband market. It allows forecasting the number of users for various broadband technologies and interaction impact of long-standing technologies as well as the impact of the new technology entrant on the market. All the necessary parameters are evaluated for the Serbian broadband market. The long-term forecasted results of broadband traffic are given. The analyses and evaluations performed are important inputs for the transport network resources planning.

  8. Seasonal forecasts of impact-relevant climate information indices developed as part of the EUPORIAS project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spirig, Christoph; Bhend, Jonas

    2015-04-01

    Climate information indices (CIIs) represent a way to communicate climate conditions to specific sectors and the public. As such, CIIs provide actionable information to stakeholders in an efficient way. Due to their non-linear nature, such CIIs can behave differently than the underlying variables, such as temperature. At the same time, CIIs do not involve impact models with different sources of uncertainties. As part of the EU project EUPORIAS (EUropean Provision Of Regional Impact Assessment on a Seasonal-to-decadal timescale) we have developed examples of seasonal forecasts of CIIs. We present forecasts and analyses of the skill of seasonal forecasts for CIIs that are relevant to a variety of economic sectors and a range of stakeholders: heating and cooling degree days as proxies for energy demand, various precipitation and drought-related measures relevant to agriculture and hydrology, a wild fire index, a climate-driven mortality index and wind-related indices tailored to renewable energy producers. Common to all examples is the finding of limited forecast skill over Europe, highlighting the challenge for providing added-value services to stakeholders operating in Europe. The reasons for the lack of forecast skill vary: often we find little skill in the underlying variable(s) precisely in those areas that are relevant for the CII, in other cases the nature of the CII is particularly demanding for predictions, as seen in the case of counting measures such as frost days or cool nights. On the other hand, several results suggest there may be some predictability in sub-regions for certain indices. Several of the exemplary analyses show potential for skillful forecasts and prospect for improvements by investing in post-processing. Furthermore, those cases for which CII forecasts showed similar skill values as those of the underlying meteorological variables, forecasts of CIIs provide added value from a user perspective.

  9. The impact of implementing a demand forecasting system into a low-income country's supply chain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, Leslie E; Haidari, Leila A; Wateska, Angela R; Phillips, Roslyn J; Schmitz, Michelle M; Connor, Diana L; Norman, Bryan A; Brown, Shawn T; Welling, Joel S; Lee, Bruce Y

    2016-07-12

    To evaluate the potential impact and value of applications (e.g. adjusting ordering levels, storage capacity, transportation capacity, distribution frequency) of data from demand forecasting systems implemented in a lower-income country's vaccine supply chain with different levels of population change to urban areas. Using our software, HERMES, we generated a detailed discrete event simulation model of Niger's entire vaccine supply chain, including every refrigerator, freezer, transport, personnel, vaccine, cost, and location. We represented the introduction of a demand forecasting system to adjust vaccine ordering that could be implemented with increasing delivery frequencies and/or additions of cold chain equipment (storage and/or transportation) across the supply chain during varying degrees of population movement. Implementing demand forecasting system with increased storage and transport frequency increased the number of successfully administered vaccine doses and lowered the logistics cost per dose up to 34%. Implementing demand forecasting system without storage/transport increases actually decreased vaccine availability in certain circumstances. The potential maximum gains of a demand forecasting system may only be realized if the system is implemented to both augment the supply chain cold storage and transportation. Implementation may have some impact but, in certain circumstances, may hurt delivery. Therefore, implementation of demand forecasting systems with additional storage and transport may be the better approach. Significant decreases in the logistics cost per dose with more administered vaccines support investment in these forecasting systems. Demand forecasting systems have the potential to greatly improve vaccine demand fulfilment, and decrease logistics cost/dose when implemented with storage and transportation increases. Simulation modeling can demonstrate the potential health and economic benefits of supply chain improvements. Copyright

  10. Estimating the impact of satellite observations on large-scale river flood forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreadis, Konstantinos; Schumann, Guy

    2014-05-01

    Floods are one of the costliest natural disasters, posing severe risks to human population. Hydraulic models are able to predict flood characteristics, such as water surface elevations and inundated area, and are being used for forecasting operationally although there are many uncertainties. In this work, the potential value of satellite observations to initialize these hydraulic models (and their forecasts correspondingly) is explored. The Ensemble Sensitivity method is adapted to evaluate the impact of potential satellite observations on the forecasting of flood characteristics. The estimation of the impact is based on the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter, allowing for the forecast error reductions to be computed without additional model runs. The study area was located in the Ohio River basin, and the model used was the LISFLOOD-FP hydrodynamic model. The experimental design consisted of two configurations of the LISFLOOD-FP model. The first (baseline) simulation represents a calibrated 'best effort' model based on a sub-grid channel structure using observations for parameters and boundary conditions, whereas the second (background) simulation consists of estimated parameters and SRTM-based boundary conditions. Results showed that the forecast skill was improved for water heights up to lead times of 11 days, while even partial observations of the river contained information for the entire river's water surface profile and allowed forecasting 5 to 7 days ahead. On the other hand, discharge forecasts were not improved as much when assimilating water height observations although forecast errors were reduced. Finally, the potential for identifying errors in the model structure and parameterizations via the ensemble sensitivity method is discussed.

  11. Case studies of NOAA 6/TIROS N data impact on numerical weather forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Druyan, L. M.; Alperson, Z.; Ben-Amram, T.

    1984-01-01

    The impact of satellite temperatures from systems which predate the launching of the third generation of vertical sounding instruments aboard TIROS N (13 Oct 1978) and NOAA 6 (27 June 1979) is reported. The first evaluation of soundings from TIROS N found that oceanic, cloudy retrievals over NH mid latitudes show a cold bias in winter. It is confirmed for both satellite systems using a larger data base. It is shown that RMS differences between retrievals and colocated radiosonde observations within the swath 30-60N during the 1979-80 winter were generally 2-3K in clear air and higher for cloudy columns. A positive impact of TIROS N temperatures on the analysis of synoptic weather systems is shown. Analyses prepared from only satellite temperatures seemed to give a better definition to weather systems' thermal structure than that provided by corresponding NMC analyses without satellite data. The results of a set of 14 numerical forecast experiments performed with the PE model of the Israel Meteorological Service (IMS) are summarized; these were designed to test the impact of TIROS N and NOAA 6 temperatures within the IMS analysis and forecast cycle. The satellite data coverage over the NH, the mean area/period S1 and RMS verification scores and the spatial distribution of SAT versus NO SAT forecast differences are discussed and it is concluded that positive forecast impact occurs over ocean areas where the extra data improve the specification which is otherwise available from conventional observations. The forecast impact for three cases from the same set of experiments was examined and it is found that satellite temperatures, observed over the Atlantic Ocean contribute to better forecasts over Iceland and central Europe although a worse result was verified over Spain. It is also shown that the better scores of a forecast based also on satellite data and verified over North America actually represent a mixed impact on the forecast synoptic patterns. A superior 48 hr

  12. Impact of currents and futures altimetric missions on ocean analysis and forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verrier, Simon; Le Traon, Pierre-Yves; Remy, Elisabeth

    2016-04-01

    Mercator Ocean, as a major operational oceanography center, must adapt its modeling and data assimilation systems regarding new measurements technologies. As satellite altimetry is one of the major observing systems to constrain ocean models, it is a main concern to assess the impact of the current and future altimeter constellation. The study is based on the OSSE/OSE's (Observing System Simulation Experiments/Observing System Experiments) methods. OSSEs are carried out with a global 1/4° modeling and data assimilation system similar to the operational one but using simulated dataset of observations (altimetry here) in order to assess their contribution and to test the sensitivity of results to different parameters (errors, observation density, type of observations). The SAR technology allows a lower measurement noise close to 1 cm and much better than the LRM's 3cm noise. It is important to assess and quantify its impact on operational systems with data assimilation. Simulated data sets are extracted from a global free 1/12° run and assimilated in the global 1/4° modeling and data assimilation system. Using the 1/12° simulation is justified by the fact that mesoscale variability is better represented than in a 1/4° one. OSEs are carried using the operational system where some observations have been retrieved. This technic allows to assess wich is the contribution of each altimeter data set in the whole prediction/analysing system. The main goal is to assess how the reduction of measurement noise (SAR/LRM) and number of satellites impact the analysis and forecast errors at global and regional (i.e. Gulf Stream, Agullas Current) scales.

  13. Forecasting the Impact of Heart Failure in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heidenreich, Paul A.; Albert, Nancy M.; Allen, Larry A.; Bluemke, David A.; Butler, Javed; Fonarow, Gregg C.; Ikonomidis, John S.; Khavjou, Olga; Konstam, Marvin A.; Maddox, Thomas M.; Nichol, Graham; Pham, Michael; Piña, Ileana L.; Trogdon, Justin G.

    2013-01-01

    Background Heart failure (HF) is an important contributor to both the burden and cost of national healthcare expenditures, with more older Americans hospitalized for HF than for any other medical condition. With the aging of the population, the impact of HF is expected to increase substantially. Methods and Results We estimated future costs of HF by adapting a methodology developed by the American Heart Association to project the epidemiology and future costs of HF from 2012 to 2030 without double counting the costs attributed to comorbid conditions. The model assumes that HF prevalence will remain constant by age, sex, and race/ethnicity and that rising costs and technological innovation will continue at the same rate. By 2030, >8 million people in the United States (1 in every 33) will have HF. Between 2012 and 2030, real (2010$) total direct medical costs of HF are projected to increase from $21 billion to $53 billion. Total costs, including indirect costs for HF, are estimated to increase from $31 billion in 2012 to $70 billion in 2030. If one assumes all costs of cardiac care for HF patients are attributable to HF (no cost attribution to comorbid conditions), the 2030 projected cost estimates of treating patients with HF will be 3-fold higher ($160 billion in direct costs). Conclusions The estimated prevalence and cost of care for HF will increase markedly because of aging of the population. Strategies to prevent HF and improve the efficiency of care are needed. PMID:23616602

  14. Forecasting the Development of Different Solar Cell Technologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arturo Morales-Acevedo

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Solar cells are made of several materials and device structures with the main goal of having maximum efficiency at low cost. Some types of solar cells have shown a rapid efficiency progress whereas others seem to remain constant as a consequence of different factors such as the technological and economic ones. Using information published by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL about the increase of solar cells record efficiency, we apply a simple mathematical model to estimate the evolution in the near future for the different cell technologies. Here, as an example, we use data for solar cells made with representative materials and structures of each of the three “PV generations.”

  15. Improving the Army’s Next Effort in Technology Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-01

    Cortisol Effects on Body Mass, Blood Pressure, and Cholesterol in the General Population,” Hypertension, 33 (1999), 1364–1368. 13 V. Technological...of HPA (hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal) axis stress response hormones, notably cortisol and b-endorphin.62 These authors suggest that high hardy...stressors. In short, hardy individuals are more likely to remain emotionally stable during stressful situations. In support of this interpretation is

  16. Survey of Long-Term Technology Forecasting Methodologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-11-01

    betting scores at horse races (Ref. 11). The RAND research was directed at improving the use of expert predictions in policy - making. Procedures were... policy formulation, but we have no way of knowing whether it did. Much of the thinking was heavily oriented toward then-current problems, such as the...asked to put themselves into a future time frame in which some technology is assumed to be commonplace. Then, the group is asked to “ backcast ” to

  17. Forecasting the Development of Different Solar Cell Technologies

    OpenAIRE

    Arturo Morales-Acevedo; Gaspar Casados-Cruz

    2013-01-01

    Solar cells are made of several materials and device structures with the main goal of having maximum efficiency at low cost. Some types of solar cells have shown a rapid efficiency progress whereas others seem to remain constant as a consequence of different factors such as the technological and economic ones. Using information published by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) about the increase of solar cells record efficiency, we apply a simple mathematical model to estimate the ...

  18. Impact of radiosonde data over the Arctic ice on forecasting winter extreme weather over mid latitude

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, Kazutoshi; Inoue, Jun; Yamazaki, Akira; Kim, Joo-hong; Maturilli, Marion; Dethloff, Klaus; Hudson, Stephen

    2016-04-01

    In February 2015, the Arctic air outbreak caused extreme cold events and heavy snowfall over the mid latitude, in particular over the North America. During the winter, special radiosonde observations were made on the Norwegian RV Lance around the north of Svalbard under the N-ICE2015 project. We investigated the impact of the radiosonde data on forecasting of a cold extreme event over the eastern North America using the AFES-LETKF experimental ensemble reanalysis version2 (ALERA2) data set. ALERA2 was used as the reference reanalysis (CTL) while the observing-system experiment (OSE) assimilated the same observational data set, except for the radiosonde data obtained by the RV Lance. Using these two reanalysis data as initial values, ensemble forecasting experiments were conducted. Comparing these ensemble forecasts, there were large differences in the position and depth of a predicted tropopause polar vortex. The CTL forecast well predicted the southward intrusion of the polar vortex which pushed a cold air over the eastern North America from the Canadian Archipelago. In the OSE forecast, in contrast, the trough associated with southward intrusion of the polar vortex was weak, which prevented a cold outbreak from Arctic. This result suggested that the radiosonde observations over the central Arctic would improve the skill of weather forecasts during winter.

  19. Economic impact of price forecasting inaccuracies on self-scheduling of generation companies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mohammadi-Ivatloo, B.; Ehsan, M. [Center of Excellence in Power System Management and Control, Department of Electrical Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Zareipour, H. [Power and Energy Systems Group, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Calgary, Alberta (Canada); Amjady, N. [Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Semnan, Semnan (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2011-02-15

    This paper studies the economic impact of using inaccurate price forecasts on self-scheduling of generation companies (GenCos) in a competitive electricity market. Four alternative sets of price forecasts are used in this study which have different levels of accuracy. The economic impact of price forecast inaccuracies is calculated by comparing the economic benefits of the GenCos in two self-scheduling scenarios. In the first scenario, electricity market price forecasts are used to optimally schedule the GenCos' next day operation. In the second scenario, perfect price forecasts, i.e., actual market prices, are used for self-scheduling of the GenCos. Two indices are utilized to quantify the differences in the economic benefits of the GenCos under the two scenarios. Simulation results are provided and discussed for two typical and inherently different GenCos, i.e., a hydro-based producer and a thermal-based producer. (author)

  20. The Impact of Jumps and Leverage in Forecasting Co-Volatility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Asai (Manabu); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2015-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ The paper investigates the impact of jumps in forecasting co-volatility, accommodating leverage effects. We modify the jump-robust two time scale covariance estimator of Boudt and Zhang (2013) such that the estimated matrix is positive definite. Using this approach we

  1. The Impact of Jumps and Leverage in Forecasting Co-Volatility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Asai (Manabu); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2015-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ The paper investigates the impact of jumps in forecasting co-volatility, accommodating leverage effects. We modify the jump-robust two time scale covariance estimator of Boudt and Zhang (2013)such that the estimated matrix is positive definite. Using this approach we ca

  2. Impact of Kalpana-1 retrieved atmospheric motion vectors on mesoscale model forecast during summer monsoon 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaur, Inderpreet; Kumar, Prashant; Deb, S. K.; Kishtawal, C. M.; Pal, P. K.; Kumar, Raj

    2015-05-01

    The atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) retrieved from multi-spectral geostationary satellites form a very crucial input to improve the initial conditions of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models at all operational agencies throughout the globe. With the recent update of operational AMV retrieval algorithm using infrared, water vapor, and visible channels of Indian geostationary meteorological satellite Kalpana-1, an attempt has been made to assess the impact of AMVs in the NWP models. In this study, the impact of Kalpana-1 AMVs is assessed by assimilating them in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using three-dimensional variational data assimilation method during the entire month of July 2011 over the Indian Ocean region. Apart from Kalpana-1 AMVs, the other AMVs available from Global Telecommunications System (GTS) are also assimilated to generate the WRF model analyses. After the initial verification of WRF model analyses, the 12-h wind forecasts from the WRF model are compared with National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Data Assimilation System final analyses. The assimilation of Kalpana-1 AMVs shows positive impact in 12-h wind forecast over the tropical region in the upper troposphere. Similar results are obtained when other AMVs available through GTS are used for assimilation, though the magnitude of positive impact of Kalpana-1 AMVs is slightly higher over tropical region. The 24-h rainfall forecasts are also improved over the Western India and the Bay of Bengal region, when Kalpana-1 AMVs are used for assimilation against control experiments.

  3. Addressing model error through atmospheric stochastic physical parametrizations: impact on the coupled ECMWF seasonal forecasting system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weisheimer, Antje; Corti, Susanna; Palmer, Tim; Vitart, Frederic

    2014-06-28

    The finite resolution of general circulation models of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system and the effects of sub-grid-scale variability present a major source of uncertainty in model simulations on all time scales. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has been at the forefront of developing new approaches to account for these uncertainties. In particular, the stochastically perturbed physical tendency scheme and the stochastically perturbed backscatter algorithm for the atmosphere are now used routinely for global numerical weather prediction. The European Centre also performs long-range predictions of the coupled atmosphere-ocean climate system in operational forecast mode, and the latest seasonal forecasting system--System 4--has the stochastically perturbed tendency and backscatter schemes implemented in a similar way to that for the medium-range weather forecasts. Here, we present results of the impact of these schemes in System 4 by contrasting the operational performance on seasonal time scales during the retrospective forecast period 1981-2010 with comparable simulations that do not account for the representation of model uncertainty. We find that the stochastic tendency perturbation schemes helped to reduce excessively strong convective activity especially over the Maritime Continent and the tropical Western Pacific, leading to reduced biases of the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), cloud cover, precipitation and near-surface winds. Positive impact was also found for the statistics of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), showing an increase in the frequencies and amplitudes of MJO events. Further, the errors of El Niño southern oscillation forecasts become smaller, whereas increases in ensemble spread lead to a better calibrated system if the stochastic tendency is activated. The backscatter scheme has overall neutral impact. Finally, evidence for noise-activated regime transitions has been found in a cluster analysis of mid

  4. A simple method of observation impact analysis for operational storm surge forecasting systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sumihar, Julius; Verlaan, Martin

    2016-04-01

    In this work, a simple method is developed for analyzing the impact of assimilating observations in improving forecast accuracy of a model. The method simply makes use of observation time series and the corresponding model output that are generated without data assimilation. These two time series are usually available in an operational database. The method is therefore easy to implement. Moreover, it can be used before actually implementing any data assimilation to the forecasting system. In this respect, it can be used as a tool for designing a data assimilation system, namely for searching for an optimal observing network. The method can also be used as a diagnostic tool, for example, for evaluating an existing operational data assimilation system to check if all observations are contributing positively to the forecast accuracy. The method has been validated with some twin experiments using a simple one-dimensional advection model as well as with an operational storm surge forecasting system based on the Dutch Continental Shelf model version 5 (DCSMv5). It has been applied for evaluating the impact of observations in the operational data assimilation system with DCSMv5 and for designing a data assimilation system for the new model DCSMv6. References: Verlaan, M. and J. Sumihar (2016), Observation impact analysis methods for storm surge forecasting systems, Ocean Dynamics, ODYN-D-15-00061R1 (in press) Zijl, F., J. Sumihar, and M. Verlaan (2015), Application of data assimilation for improved operational water level forecasting of the northwest European shelf and North Sea, Ocean Dynamics, 65, Issue 12, pp 1699-1716.

  5. Impact of cumulus initialization on the spinup of precipitation forecasts in the tropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasahara, Akira; Mizzi, Arthur P.; Donner, Leo J.

    1992-01-01

    To ameliorate the precipitation spinup problem, i.e., the prediction model's inability to produce realistic precipitation rates at the beginning of the forecast period, the impact of a tropical initialization procedure on precipitation forecasts is examined. Attention is focused on the examination of the time behavior of precipitation rates and the closely associated variables of horizontal divergence and moisture during the first 42 time steps corresponding to 10.5 h. It is determined that the originally analyzed tropical divergence fields have realistic geographical distributions but there intensities seem to be too low by a factor of two.

  6. Test of developing long-term forecasts of world energy impact on the earth's atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klimenko, V. V.; Klimenko, A. V.; Tereshin, A. G.

    2015-03-01

    It has been established that the historical approach to world energy forecasting can yield useful results at time horizons with a depth of several decades. The genetic forecast supposes reaching a plateau of global energy consumption at the level of 30 billion tons of coal equivalent and an increase in the carbon dioxide concentration almost to 500 parts per million by the end of the century against the background of a continuing decrease in sulfur dioxide emission. From the historical point of view, the implementation of the most aggressive scenarios of human impact on the atmosphere and climate seems very unlikely.

  7. Tax-Credit Scholarships in Nebraska: Forecasting the Fiscal Impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gottlob, Brian

    2010-01-01

    This study seeks to inform the debate over a proposal in Nebraska to give tax credits for contributions to organizations that provide scholarships to K-12 private schools. The study constructs a model to determine the fiscal impact of tax-credit scholarships on the state and on local school districts. The author estimates the impact that…

  8. Impact of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Thermodynamic Profiles on Regional Weather Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, Shih-Hung; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Jedlovee, Gary J.

    2010-01-01

    In data sparse regions, remotely-sensed observations can be used to improve analyses and lead to better forecasts. One such source comes from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), which together with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), provides temperature and moisture profiles with accuracy comparable to that of radiosondes. The purpose of this paper is to describe a procedure to assimilate AIRS thermodynamic profile data into a regional configuration of the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model using its three-dimension variational (3DVAR) analysis component (WRF-Var). Quality indicators are used to select only the highest quality temperature and moisture profiles for assimilation in both clear and partly cloudy regions. Separate error characteristics for land and water profiles are also used in the assimilation process. Assimilation results indicate that AIRS profiles produce an analysis closer to in situ observations than the background field. Forecasts from a 37-day case study period in the winter of 2007 show that AIRS profile data can lead to improvements in 6-h cumulative precipitation forecasts due to instability added in the forecast soundings by the AIRS profiles. Additionally, in a convective heavy rainfall event from February 2007, assimilation of AIRS profiles produces a more unstable boundary layer resulting in enhanced updrafts in the model. These updrafts produce a squall line and precipitation totals that more closely reflect ground-based observations than a no AIRS control forecast. The location of available high-quality AIRS profiles ahead of approaching storm systems is found to be of paramount importance to the amount of impact the observations will have on the resulting forecasts.

  9. Financial impact of errors in business forecasting: a comparative study of linear models and neural networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudimar Pereira da Veiga

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The importance of demand forecasting as a management tool is a well documented issue. However, it is difficult to measure costs generated by forecasting errors and to find a model that assimilate the detailed operation of each company adequately. In general, when linear models fail in the forecasting process, more complex nonlinear models are considered. Although some studies comparing traditional models and neural networks have been conducted in the literature, the conclusions are usually contradictory. In this sense, the objective was to compare the accuracy of linear methods and neural networks with the current method used by the company. The results of this analysis also served as input to evaluate influence of errors in demand forecasting on the financial performance of the company. The study was based on historical data from five groups of food products, from 2004 to 2008. In general, one can affirm that all models tested presented good results (much better than the current forecasting method used, with mean absolute percent error (MAPE around 10%. The total financial impact for the company was 6,05% on annual sales.

  10. The Impact of Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) Profiles on Short-term Weather Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, Shih-Hung; Zavodsky, Brad; Jedlovec, Gary J.; Lapenta, William

    2007-01-01

    The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), together with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), represents one of the most advanced spacebased atmospheric sounding systems. The combined AlRS/AMSU system provides radiance measurements used to retrieve temperature profiles with an accuracy of 1 K over 1 km layers under both clear and partly cloudy conditions, while the accuracy of the derived humidity profiles is 15% in 2 km layers. Critical to the successful use of AIRS profiles for weather and climate studies is the use of profile quality indicators and error estimates provided with each profile Aside form monitoring changes in Earth's climate, one of the objectives of AIRS is to provide sounding information of sufficient accuracy such that the assimilation of the new observations, especially in data sparse region, will lead to an improvement in weather forecasts. The purpose of this paper is to describe a procedure to optimally assimilate highresolution AIRS profile data in a regional analysis/forecast model. The paper will focus on the impact of AIRS profiles on a rapidly developing east coast storm and will also discuss preliminary results for a 30-day forecast period, simulating a quasi-operation environment. Temperature and moisture profiles were obtained from the prototype version 5.0 EOS science team retrieval algorithm which includes explicit error information for each profile. The error profile information was used to select the highest quality temperature and moisture data for every profile location and pressure level for assimilation into the ARPS Data Analysis System (ADAS). The AIRS-enhanced analyses were used as initial fields for the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) system used by the SPORT project for regional weather forecast studies. The ADASWRF system will be run on CONUS domain with an emphasis on the east coast. The preliminary assessment of the impact of the AIRS profiles will focus on quality control issues associated with AIRS

  11. Impact of various observing systems on weather analysis and forecast over the Indian region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Randhir; Ojha, Satya P.; Kishtawal, C. M.; Pal, P. K.

    2014-09-01

    To investigate the potential impact of various types of data on weather forecast over the Indian region, a set of data-denial experiments spanning the entire month of July 2012 is executed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and its three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimilation system. The experiments are designed to allow the assessment of mass versus wind observations and terrestrial versus space-based instruments, to evaluate the relative importance of the classes of conventional instrument such as radiosonde, and finally to investigate the role of individual spaceborne instruments. The moist total energy norm is used for validation and forecast skill assessment. The results show that the contribution of wind observations toward error reduction is larger than mass observations in the short range (48 h) forecast. Terrestrial-based observations generally contribute more than space-based observations except for the moisture fields, where the role of the space-based instruments becomes more prevalent. Only about 50% of individual instruments are found to be beneficial in this experiment configuration, with the most important role played by radiosondes. Thereafter, Meteosat Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMVs) (only for short range forecast) and Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) are second and third, followed by surface observations, Sounder for Probing Vertical Profiles of Humidity (SAPHIR) radiances and pilot observations. Results of the additional experiments of comparative performance of SSM/I total precipitable water (TPW), Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS), and SAPHIR radiances indicate that SSM/I is the most important instrument followed by SAPHIR and MHS for improving the quality of the forecast over the Indian region. Further, the impact of single SAPHIR instrument (onboard Megha-Tropiques) is significantly larger compared to three MHS instruments (onboard NOAA-18/19 and MetOp-A).

  12. Innovative activity of high-technology companies as assessment and forecasting object

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. E. Sklyarov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Innovation activities, as well as innovations, are closely related meanings, and like many others economical definitions, have a broad range of meanings. Main characteristics and attributes of innovation involves new or significantly improved product, that’s being used, or in other words, found its application, and innovative activities – activities focused on realization of innovations. In this article, innovations are mainly considered in terms of high-technology production, evidence from Russian space industry. There are 5 basic stages of lifecycle of innovative project in considered industry: initiation, development, realization, expansion, consumption. Practically, third or fourth, or even both of these stages, often missing because there is no need of them. R&D activities, or even further serial production, based on previous developments, is an innovation activity, because these activities are stages of innovative projects lifecycle itself. Then it seems legit, to draw a conclusion, that in terms of high-technology production, company’s primary activity equals innovative activity. Basic characteristics of innovative activity of high-technology companies as assessment and forecasting object involves high level of uncertainty at every stage of projects lifecycle, high dependency on funding level of this activity, and high level and erratic structure of risk. All the above mentioned, means that assessment and forecasting of innovative activity of high-technology companies, needs development of its own methodological tools for each industry.

  13. Forecasting market impact costs and identifying expensive trades

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bikker, J.A.; Spierdijk, L.; Hoevenaars, R.P.M.M.; Sluis, van der P.J.

    2006-01-01

    Often, a relatively small group of trades causes the major part of the trading costs on an investment portfolio. For the equity trades studied in this paper, executed by the world's second largest pension fund, we find that only 10% of all trades determines 75% of total market impact costs. Conseque

  14. Tax-Credit Scholarships in Maryland: Forecasting the Fiscal Impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gottlob, Brian

    2010-01-01

    This study seeks to inform the debate over a proposal in Maryland to give tax credits to businesses for contributions to organizations that provide scholarships to K-12 private schools or which contribute to innovative educational programs in the public schools. The study constructs a model to determine the fiscal impact of a tax-credit…

  15. Sources and Sinks: Elucidating Mechanisms, Documenting Patterns, and Forecasting Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-18

    between sites on and off Ft. Hood. 2. Assess potential landscape barriers to movement of Black-capped Vireos around Ft. Hood. Hypotheses... landscape features that influence gene flow and movement To assess the potential impact of landscape features on gene flow and movement, we used the...and modeling approaches to better understand the emergence and stability of sources and sinks and assess the implications of future system changes on

  16. Impact of forecast errors on expansion planning of power systems with a renewables target

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pineda, Salvador; Morales González, Juan Miguel; Boomsma, Trine Krogh

    2015-01-01

    This paper analyzes the impact of production forecast errors on the expansion planning of a power system and investigates the influence of market design to facilitate the integration of renewable generation. For this purpose, we propose a programming modeling framework to determine the generation...... and transmission expansion plan that minimizes system-wide investment and operating costs, while ensuring a given share of renewable generation in the electricity supply. Unlike existing ones, this framework includes both a day-ahead and a balancing market so as to capture the impact of both production forecasts...... and the associated prediction errors. Within this framework, we consider two paradigmatic market designs that essentially differ in whether the day-ahead generation schedule and the subsequent balancing re-dispatch are co-optimized or not. The main features and results of the model set-ups are discussed using...

  17. Forecast Forecasts the Trend

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    The latest release of "2009 China Luxury Forecast" shows that while the financial crisis is leading a general decline in demand for luxury brands in Europe,America and Japan,the global economic downturn has had limited impact on Chinese luxury consumption and that there is widespread confidence in the future among Chinese luxury consumers.

  18. Forecast Forecasts the Trend

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Ting

    2009-01-01

    @@ The latest release of "2009 China Luxury Forecast" shows that while the financial crisis is leading a general decline in demand for luxury brands in Europe,America and Japan,the global economic downturn has had limited impact on Chinese luxury consumption and that there is widespread confidence in the future among Chinese luxury consumers.

  19. The Impact of the Assimilation of AIRS Radiance Measurements on Short-term Weather Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCarty, Will; Jedlovec, Gary; Miller, Timothy L.

    2009-01-01

    Advanced spaceborne instruments have the ability to improve the horizontal and vertical characterization of temperature and water vapor in the atmosphere through the explicit use of hyperspectral thermal infrared radiance measurements. The incorporation of these measurements into a data assimilation system provides a means to continuously characterize a three-dimensional, instantaneous atmospheric state necessary for the time integration of numerical weather forecasts. Measurements from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) are incorporated into the gridpoint statistical interpolation (GSI) three-dimensional variational (3D-Var) assimilation system to provide improved initial conditions for use in a mesoscale modeling framework mimicking that of the operational North American Mesoscale (NAM) model. The methodologies for the incorporation of the measurements into the system are presented. Though the measurements have been shown to have a positive impact in global modeling systems, the measurements are further constrained in this system as the model top is physically lower than the global systems and there is no ozone characterization in the background state. For a study period, the measurements are shown to have positive impact on both the analysis state as well as subsequently spawned short-term (0-48 hr) forecasts, particularly in forecasted geopotential height and precipitation fields. At 48 hr, height anomaly correlations showed an improvement in forecast skill of 2.3 hours relative to a system without the AIRS measurements. Similarly, the equitable threat and bias scores of precipitation forecasts of 25 mm (6 hr)-1 were shown to be improved by 8% and 7%, respectively.

  20. Local and Nonlocal Impacts of Soil Moisture Initialization on AGCM Seasonal Forecasts: A Model Sensitivity Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, H.; Frederiksen, C. S.

    2003-07-01

    Using a version of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre (BMRC) atmospheric general circulation model, this study investigates the model's sensitivity to different soil moisture initial conditions in its dynamically extended seasonal forecasts of June-August 1998 climate anomalies, with focus on the south and northeast China regions where severe floods occurred. The authors' primary aim is to understand the model's responses to different soil moisture initial conditions in terms of the physical and dynamical processes involved. Due to a lack of observed global soil moisture data, the efficacy of using soil moisture anomalies derived from the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis is assessed. Results show that by imposing soil moisture percentile anomalies derived from the reanalysis data into the BMRC model initial condition, the regional features of the model's simulation of seasonal precipitation and temperature anomalies are modulated. Further analyses reveal that the impacts of soil moisture conditions on the model's surface temperature forecasts are mainly from localized interactions between land surface and the overlying atmosphere. In contrast, the model's sensitivity in its forecasts of rainfall anomalies is mainly due to the nonlocal impacts of the soil moisture conditions. Over the monsoon-dominated east Asian region, the contribution from local water recycling, through surface evaporation, to the model simulation of precipitation is limited. Rather, it is the horizontal moisture transport by the regional atmospheric circulation that is the dominant factor in controlling the model rainfall. The influence of different soil moisture conditions on the model forecasts of rainfall anomalies is the result of the response of regional circulation to the anomalous soil moisture condition imposed. Results from the BMRC model sensitivity study support similar findings from other model studies that have appeared in recent years and emphasize the importance of improving

  1. Impacts of calibration strategies and ensemble methods on ensemble flood forecasting over Lanjiang basin, Southeast China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Li; Xu, Yue-Ping

    2017-04-01

    Ensemble flood forecasting driven by numerical weather prediction products is becoming more commonly used in operational flood forecasting applications.In this study, a hydrological ensemble flood forecasting system based on Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and quantitative precipitation forecasts from TIGGE dataset is constructed for Lanjiang Basin, Southeast China. The impacts of calibration strategies and ensemble methods on the performance of the system are then evaluated.The hydrological model is optimized by parallel programmed ɛ-NSGAII multi-objective algorithm and two respectively parameterized models are determined to simulate daily flows and peak flows coupled with a modular approach.The results indicatethat the ɛ-NSGAII algorithm permits more efficient optimization and rational determination on parameter setting.It is demonstrated that the multimodel ensemble streamflow mean have better skills than the best singlemodel ensemble mean (ECMWF) and the multimodel ensembles weighted on members and skill scores outperform other multimodel ensembles. For typical flood event, it is proved that the flood can be predicted 3-4 days in advance, but the flows in rising limb can be captured with only 1-2 days ahead due to the flash feature. With respect to peak flows selected by Peaks Over Threshold approach, the ensemble means from either singlemodel or multimodels are generally underestimated as the extreme values are smoothed out by ensemble process.

  2. Impact of Targeted Ocean Observations for Improving Ocean Model Initialization for Coupled Hurricane Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halliwell, G. R.; Srinivasan, A.; Kourafalou, V. H.; Yang, H.; Le Henaff, M.; Atlas, R. M.

    2012-12-01

    The accuracy of hurricane intensity forecasts produced by coupled forecast models is influenced by errors and biases in SST forecasts produced by the ocean model component and the resulting impact on the enthalpy flux from ocean to atmosphere that powers the storm. Errors and biases in fields used to initialize the ocean model seriously degrade SST forecast accuracy. One strategy for improving ocean model initialization is to design a targeted observing program using airplanes and in-situ devices such as floats and drifters so that assimilation of the additional data substantially reduces errors in the ocean analysis system that provides the initial fields. Given the complexity and expense of obtaining these additional observations, observing system design methods such as OSSEs are attractive for designing efficient observing strategies. A new fraternal-twin ocean OSSE system based on the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) is used to assess the impact of targeted ocean profiles observed by hurricane research aircraft, and also by in-situ float and drifter deployments, on reducing errors in initial ocean fields. A 0.04-degree HYCOM simulation of the Gulf of Mexico is evaluated as the nature run by determining that important ocean circulation features such as the Loop Current and synoptic cyclones and anticyclones are realistically simulated. The data-assimilation system is run on a 0.08-degree HYCOM mesh with substantially different model configuration than the nature run, and it uses a new ENsemble Kalman Filter (ENKF) algorithm optimized for the ocean model's hybrid vertical coordinates. The OSSE system is evaluated and calibrated by first running Observing System Experiments (OSEs) to evaluate existing observing systems, specifically quantifying the impact of assimilating more than one satellite altimeter, and also the impact of assimilating targeted ocean profiles taken by the NOAA WP-3D hurricane research aircraft in the Gulf of Mexico during the Deepwater

  3. Forecasting hurricane impact on coastal topography: Hurricane Ike

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plant, Nathaniel G.; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Sallenger,, Asbury H.; Turco, Michael J.; East, Jeffery W.; Taylor, Arthur A.; Shaffer, Wilson A.

    2010-01-01

    Extreme storms can have a profound impact on coastal topography and thus on ecosystems and human-built structures within coastal regions. For instance, landfalls of several recent major hurricanes have caused significant changes to the U.S. coastline, particularly along the Gulf of Mexico. Some of these hurricanes (e.g., Ivan in 2004, Katrina and Rita in 2005, and Gustav and Ike in 2008) led to shoreline position changes of about 100 meters. Sand dunes, which protect the coast from waves and surge, eroded, losing several meters of elevation in the course of a single storm. Observations during these events raise the question of how storm-related changes affect the future vulnerability of a coast.

  4. Evaluating the Impact of the Summit Station, Greenland Radiosonde Program on Data Modelers and Forecast Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez, C. J.; Starkweather, S.; Cox, C. J.; Solomon, A.; Shupe, M.

    2015-12-01

    Radiosondes are balloon-borne meteorological sensors used to acquire profiles of temperature and humidity. Radiosonde data are essential inputs for numerical weather prediction models and are used for climate research, particularly in the creation of reanalysis products. However, radiosonde programs are costly to maintain, in particular in the remote regions of the Arctic (e.g., $440,000/yr at Summit, Greenland), where only 40 of approximately 1000 routine global launches are made. The climate of this data-sparse region is poorly understood and forecast data assimilation procedures are designed for global applications. Thus, observations may be rejected from the data assimilation because they are too far from the model expectations. For the most cost-efficient deployment of resources and to improve forecasting methods, analyses of the effectiveness of individual radiosonde programs are necessary. Here, we evaluate how radiosondes launched twice daily (0 and 12 UTC) from Summit Station, Greenland, (72.58⁰N, 38.48⁰W, 3210 masl) influence the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) operational forecasts from June 2013 through May of 2015. A statistical analysis is conducted to determine the impact of the observations on the forecast model and the meteorological regimes that the model fails to reproduce are identified. Assimilation rates in the inversion layer are lower than any other part of the troposphere. Above the inversion, assimilation rates range from 85%-100%, 60%-98%, and > 99% for temperature, humidity, and wind, respectively. The lowest assimilation rates are found near the surface, possibly associated with biases in the representation of the temperature inversion by the ECMWF model at Summit. Consequently, assimilation rates are lower near the surface during winter when strong temperature inversions are frequently observed. Our findings benefit the scientific community who uses this information for climatological analysis of the

  5. Impact of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Thermodynamic Profiles on Regional Precipitation Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, S.-H.; Zavodsky, B. T.; Jedloved, G. J.

    2010-01-01

    In data sparse regions, remotely-sensed observations can be used to improve analyses and lead to better forecasts. One such source comes from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), which together with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), provides temperature and moisture profiles in clear and cloudy regions with accuracy which approaches that of radiosondes. The purpose of this paper is to describe an approach to assimilate AIRS thermodynamic profile data into a regional configuration of the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) model using WRF-Var. Quality indicators are used to select only the highest quality temperature and moisture profiles for assimilation in clear and partly cloudy regions, and uncontaminated portions of retrievals above clouds in overcast regions. Separate error characteristics for land and water profiles are also used in the assimilation process. Assimilation results indicate that AIRS profiles produce an analysis closer to in situ observations than the background field. Forecasts from a 37-day case study period in the winter of 2007 show that AIRS profile data can lead to improvements in 6-h cumulative precipitation forecasts resulting from improved thermodynamic fields. Additionally, in a convective heavy rainfall event from February 2007, assimilation of AIRS profiles produces a more unstable boundary layer resulting in enhanced updrafts in the model. These updrafts produce a squall line and precipitation totals that more closely reflect ground-based observations than a no AIRS control forecast. The location of available high-quality AIRS profiles ahead of approaching storm systems is found to be of paramount importance to the amount of impact the observations will have on the resulting forecasts.

  6. Considerations in forecasting the demand for carbon sequestration and biotic storage technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trexler, M.C. [Trexler and Associates, Inc., Portland, OR (United States)

    1997-12-31

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has identified forestry and other land-use based mitigation measures as possible sources and sinks of greenhouse gases. An overview of sequestration and biotic storage is presented, and the potential impacts of the use of carbon sequestration as a mitigation technology are briefly noted. Carbon sequestration is also compare to other mitigation technologies. Biotic mitigation technologies are concluded to be a legitimate and potentially important part of greenhouse gas mitigation due to their relatively low costs, ancillary benefits, and climate impact. However, not all biotic mitigation techniques perfectly match the idealized definition of a mitigation measure, and policies are becoming increasingly biased against biotic technologies.

  7. Impact of Sophisticated Stationary Forecast Techniques on the Bullwhip Effect in a Supply Chain

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    The bullwhip effect in a multistage supply chain was analyzed using sophisticated stationary forecasts (third order moving average and third order exponential smoothing forecasts ). The third order exponential smoothing and third order moving average forecasts sometimes have a variance reducing effect on the supply chain.In a supply chain with positively correlated or independent and identically distributed (i. i. d) demands, the order variance based on simple moving average forecast (or simple exponential smoothing forecast) is larger than the order variance based on second order moving average forecast (or second order exponential smoothing forecast) ,and the order variance based on second order moving average forecast ( or second order exponential smoothing forecast) is larger than the order variance based on third order moving average forecast( or third order exponential smoothing forecast). In addition, for i.i.d demands, third order exponential smoothing forecast leads to a larger variation than third order moving average forecast.

  8. Impact of School Technology on Student Achievement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Larry Douglas, Jr.

    2012-01-01

    This study provides an overview of the impact of school technology on elementary students in grades three through five attending public schools in Indiana. The investigation focused on the impact of various technologies on student achievement as measured on Indiana Statewide Testing for Educational Progress-Plus (ISTEP+). Various comparisons were…

  9. Assessing the Impact of Observations on Numerical Weather Forecasts Using the Adjoint Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelaro, Ronald

    2012-01-01

    The adjoint of a data assimilation system provides a flexible and efficient tool for estimating observation impacts on short-range weather forecasts. The impacts of any or all observations can be estimated simultaneously based on a single execution of the adjoint system. The results can be easily aggregated according to data type, location, channel, etc., making this technique especially attractive for examining the impacts of new hyper-spectral satellite instruments and for conducting regular, even near-real time, monitoring of the entire observing system. This talk provides a general overview of the adjoint method, including the theoretical basis and practical implementation of the technique. Results are presented from the adjoint-based observation impact monitoring tool in NASA's GEOS-5 global atmospheric data assimilation and forecast system. When performed in conjunction with standard observing system experiments (OSEs), the adjoint results reveal both redundancies and dependencies between observing system impacts as observations are added or removed from the assimilation system. Understanding these dependencies may be important for optimizing the use of the current observational network and defining requirements for future observing systems

  10. The Impact of TRMM Data on Numerical Forecast of Mesoscale Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pu, Zhao-Xia; Tao, Wei-Kuo

    2002-01-01

    The impact of surface rainfall data derived from the TRMM Microwave Image (TMI) on the numerical forecast of mesoscale systems is evaluated. A series of numerical experiments are performed that assimilate TMI rainfall data into the Penn State University/National Centers for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5) using a four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) technique. Experiments are conducted incorporating TMI rainfall data into the mesoscale model to improve hurricane initialization. It is found that assimilation of rainfall data into the model is beneficial in producing a more realistic eye and rain bands and also helps to improve the intensity forecast for the hurricane. Further 4DVAR experiments are performed on mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Detailed results and related issues will be presented during the conference.

  11. The impact of forecasted energy price increases on low-income consumers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eisenberg, Joel F. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2005-10-31

    The Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2005-2006. The forecast indicates significant increases in fuel costs, particularly for natural gas, propane, and home heating oil, for the year ahead. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nation’s low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The statistics are intended for the use of policymakers in the Department of Energy’s Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2006 fiscal year.

  12. Impact of SMOS soil moisture data assimilation on NCEP-GFS forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhan, X.; Zheng, W.; Meng, J.; Dong, J.; Ek, M.

    2012-04-01

    Soil moisture is one of the few critical land surface state variables that have long memory to impact the exchanges of water, energy and carbon between the land surface and atmosphere. Accurate information about soil moisture status is thus required for numerical weather, seasonal climate and hydrological forecast as well as for agricultural production forecasts, water management and many other water related economic or social activities. Since the successful launch of ESA's soil moisture ocean salinity (SMOS) mission in November 2009, about 2 years of soil moisture retrievals has been collected. SMOS is believed to be the currently best satellite sensors for soil moisture remote sensing. Therefore, it becomes interesting to examine how the collected SMOS soil moisture data are compared with other satellite-sensed soil moisture retrievals (such as NASA's Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer -AMSR-E and EUMETSAT's Advanced Scatterometer - ASCAT)), in situ soil moisture measurements, and how these data sets impact numerical weather prediction models such as the Global Forecast System of NOAA-NCEP. This study implements the Ensemble Kalman filter in GFS to assimilate the AMSR-E, ASCAT and SMOS soil moisture observations after a quantitative assessment of their error rate based on in situ measurements from ground networks around contiguous United States. in situ soil moisture measurements from ground networks (such as USDA Soil Climate Analysis network - SCAN and NOAA's U.S. Climate Reference Network -USCRN) are used to evaluate the GFS soil moisture simulations (analysis). The benefits and uncertainties of assimilating the satellite data products in GFS are examined by comparing the GFS forecasts of surface temperature and rainfall with and without the assimilations. From these examinations, the advantages of SMOS soil moisture data products over other satellite soil moisture data sets will be evaluated. The next step toward operationally assimilating soil moisture

  13. Innovation Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-11-01

    relating to “ injectors ”) to develop a map of the related technologies [33.] Another approach is to develop a “tree” showing a system branching into its...additional terms such as “trend,” “forecast,” “ delphi ,” “assessment,” and so forth may call up other forecasts and assessments relating to the topic...present and future engine technologies. A preliminary search (Step 1, Table 5) located prior forecasts, in particular, a Delphi study [36]. The Delphi

  14. TAMDAR Observation Assimilation in WRF 3D-Var and Its Impact on Hurricane Ike (2008) Forecast

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Hong-Li WANG; Xiang-Yu HUANG

    2012-01-01

    This study evaluates the impact of atmospheric observations from the Tropospheric Airborne Meteorological Data Reporting (TAMDAR) observing system on numerical weather prediction of hurricane Ike (2008) using three-dimensional data assimilation system for the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model (WRF 3D-Var). The TAMDAR data assimilation capability is added to WRF 3D-Var by incorporating the TAMDAR observation operator and corresponding observation processing procedure. Two 6-h cycling data assimilation and forecast experiments are conducted. Track and intensity forecasts are verified against the best track data from the National Hurricane Center. The results show that, on average, assimilating TAMDAR observations has a positive impact on the forecasts of hurricane Ike. The TAMDAR data assimilation reduces the track errors by about 30 km for 72-h forecasts. Improvements in intensity forecasts are also seen after four 6-h data assimilation cycles. Diagnostics show that assimilation of TAMDAR data improves subtropical ridge and steering flow in regions along Ike's track, resulting in better forecasts.

  15. Regional studies program. Forecasting the local economic impacts of energy resource development: a methodological approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stenehjem, E.J.

    1975-12-01

    Emphasis is placed on the nature and magnitude of socio-economic impacts of fossil-fuel development. A model is described that identifies and estimates the magnitude of the economic impacts of anticipated energy resource development in site-specific areas and geographically contiguous areas of unspecified size. The modeling methodology was designed to assist industries and government agencies complying with recent federal and state legislation requiring subregional impact analyses for individual facilities. The model was designed in light of the requirements for accuracy, expandability, and exportability. The methodology forecasts absolute increments in local and regional growth on an annual or biennial basis and transforms these parameters into estimates of the affected area's ability to accommodate growth-induced demands, especially demands for public services. (HLW)

  16. Impact on the tropical cyclone “Vongfong” forecast using the QuikSCAT wind data

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIUChunxia; QIYiquan; WANGJing; WANQilin; CHUPeter

    2004-01-01

    Since QuikSCAT is available in cloudy and rainy condition, its wind data are valuable in monitoring and real timeorecasting the wind field, especially in sparse genesis regions of tropical cyclones. In order to understand and investigate the impact of QuikSCAT wind data, the three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3D-VAR) of scatterometric wind data has been employed for the tropical cyclone “Vongfong” in the year 2002. The result shows that the QuikSCAT wind data have positive impact on the analysis and forecasting. But the positive impact is slight. The present results suggest that how to assimilate QuikSCAT wind data effectively is important and will be a challenge to meteorologists.

  17. STAR 21, Technology Forecast Assessments. Strategic Technologies for the Army of the Twenty-First Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-01-01

    technology, power conditioning includes prime power from homopolar generators, compulsators , and alternators combined with capacitors, batteries, and pulse...positions where they cease to make design contributions. Working relationships with suppliers are changing from strictly buyer /seller to partnerships

  18. Forecasting the Market for New Communication Technology: The Home Video Player Experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klopfenstein, Bruce C.

    This paper describes a critical study of the available forecasts and forecasting studies for the home video player market over a 15-year period which was undertaken to discover why so many forecasts were wrong about consumer adoption of home videocassette players and videodisk players, the reasons for these errors, and ways in which this knowledge…

  19. The effect of domain length and parameter estimation on observation impact in data assimilation for flood inundation forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Elizabeth; Dance, Sarah; Garcia-Pintado, Javier; Nichols, Nancy; Smith, Polly

    2017-04-01

    Timely and accurate inundation forecasting provides vital information about the behaviour of fluvial flood water, enabling mitigating actions to be taken by residents and emergency services. Data assimilation is a powerful mathematical technique for combining forecasts from hydrodynamic models with observations to produce a more accurate forecast. We discuss the effect of both domain size and channel friction parameter estimation on observation impact in data assimilation for inundation forecasting. Numerical shallow water simulations are carried out in a simple, idealized river channel topography. Data assimilation is performed using an Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) and synthetic observations of water depth in identical twin experiments. We show that reinitialising the numerical inundation model with corrected water levels after an assimilation can cause an initialisation shock if a hydrostatic assumption is made, leading to significant degradation of the forecast for several hours immediately following an assimilation. We demonstrate an effective and novel method for dealing with this. We find that using data assimilation to combine observations of water depth with forecasts from a hydrodynamic model corrects the forecast very effectively at time of the observations. In agreement with other authors we find that the corrected forecast then moves quickly back to the open loop forecast which does not take the observations into account. Our investigations show that the time taken for the forecast to decay back to the open loop case depends on the length of the domain of interest when only water levels are corrected. This is because the assimilation corrects water depths in all parts of the domain, even when observations are only available in one area. Error growth in the forecast step then starts at the upstream part of the domain and propagates downstream. The impact of the observations is therefore longer-lived in a longer domain. We have found that the

  20. Impact of high-resolution data assimilation of GPS zenith delay on Mediterranean heavy rainfall forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Boniface

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Impact of GPS (Global Positioning System data assimilation is assessed here using a high-resolution numerical weather prediction system at 2.5 km horizontal resolution. The Zenithal Tropospheric Delay (ZTD GPS data from mesoscale networks are assimilated with the 3DVAR AROME data assimilation scheme. Data from more than 280 stations over the model domain have been assimilated during 15-day long assimilation cycles prior each of the two studied events. The results of these assimilation cycles show that the assimilation of GPS ZTD with the AROME system performs well in producing analyses closer to the ZTD observations in average.

    Then the impacts of assimilating GPS data on the precipitation forecast have been evaluated. For the first case, only the AROME runs starting a few hours prior the triggering of the convective system are able to simulate the convective precipitation. The assimilation of GPS ZTD observations improves the simulation of the spatial extent of the precipitation, but slightly underestimates the heaviest precipitation in that case compared with the experiment without GPS. The accuracy of the precipitation forecast for the second case is much better. The analyses from the control assimilation cycle provide already a good description of the atmosphere state that cannot be further improved by the assimilation of GPS observations. Only for the latest day (22 November 2007, significant differences have been found between the two parallel cycles. In that case, the assimilation of GPS ZTD allows to improve the first 6 to 12 h of the precipitation forecast.

  1. Emerging Technologies and Their Impact on Disability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wise, Paul H.

    2012-01-01

    Technological innovation is transforming the prevalence and functional impact of child disability, the scale of social disparities in child disability, and perhaps the essential meaning of disability in an increasingly technology-dominated world. In this article, Paul Wise investigates several specific facets of this transformation. He begins by…

  2. Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon pools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seto, Karen C.; Güneralp, Burak; Hutyra, Lucy R.

    2012-01-01

    Urban land-cover change threatens biodiversity and affects ecosystem productivity through loss of habitat, biomass, and carbon storage. However, despite projections that world urban populations will increase to nearly 5 billion by 2030, little is known about future locations, magnitudes, and rates of urban expansion. Here we develop spatially explicit probabilistic forecasts of global urban land-cover change and explore the direct impacts on biodiversity hotspots and tropical carbon biomass. If current trends in population density continue and all areas with high probabilities of urban expansion undergo change, then by 2030, urban land cover will increase by 1.2 million km2, nearly tripling the global urban land area circa 2000. This increase would result in considerable loss of habitats in key biodiversity hotspots, with the highest rates of forecasted urban growth to take place in regions that were relatively undisturbed by urban development in 2000: the Eastern Afromontane, the Guinean Forests of West Africa, and the Western Ghats and Sri Lanka hotspots. Within the pan-tropics, loss in vegetation biomass from areas with high probability of urban expansion is estimated to be 1.38 PgC (0.05 PgC yr−1), equal to ∼5% of emissions from tropical deforestation and land-use change. Although urbanization is often considered a local issue, the aggregate global impacts of projected urban expansion will require significant policy changes to affect future growth trajectories to minimize global biodiversity and vegetation carbon losses. PMID:22988086

  3. The impact of vertical resolution in mesoscale model AROME forecasting of radiation fog

    Science.gov (United States)

    Philip, Alexandre; Bergot, Thierry; Bouteloup, Yves; Bouyssel, François

    2015-04-01

    Airports short-term forecasting of fog has a security and economic impact. Numerical simulations have been performed with the mesoscale model AROME (Application of Research to Operations at Mesoscale) (Seity et al. 2011). Three vertical resolutions (60, 90 and 156 levels) are used to show the impact of radiation fog on numerical forecasting. Observations at Roissy Charles De Gaulle airport are compared to simulations. Significant differences in the onset, evolution and dissipation of fog were found. The high resolution simulation is in better agreement with observations than a coarser one. The surface boundary layer and incoming long-wave radiations are better represented. A more realistic behaviour of liquid water content evolution allows a better anticipation of low visibility procedures (ceiling < 60m and/or visibility < 600m). The case study of radiation fog shows that it is necessary to have a well defined vertical grid to better represent local phenomena. A statistical study over 6 months (October 2011 - March 2012 ) using different configurations was carried out. Statistically, results were the same as in the case study of radiation fog. Seity Y., P. Brousseau, S. Malardel, G. Hello, P. Bénard, F. Bouttier, C. Lac, V. Masson, 2011: The AROME-France convective scale operational model. Mon.Wea.Rev., 139, 976-991.

  4. Forecasting surface water flooding hazard and impact in real-time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Steven J.; Moore, Robert J.; Wells, Steven C.

    2016-04-01

    Across the world, there is increasing demand for more robust and timely forecast and alert information on Surface Water Flooding (SWF). Within a UK context, the government Pitt Review into the Summer 2007 floods provided recommendations and impetus to improve the understanding of SWF risk for both off-line design and real-time forecasting and warning. Ongoing development and trial of an end-to-end real-time SWF system is being progressed through the recently formed Natural Hazards Partnership (NHP) with delivery to the Flood Forecasting Centre (FFC) providing coverage over England & Wales. The NHP is a unique forum that aims to deliver coordinated assessments, research and advice on natural hazards for governments and resilience communities across the UK. Within the NHP, a real-time Hazard Impact Model (HIM) framework has been developed that includes SWF as one of three hazards chosen for initial trialling. The trial SWF HIM system uses dynamic gridded surface-runoff estimates from the Grid-to-Grid (G2G) hydrological model to estimate the SWF hazard. National datasets on population, infrastructure, property and transport are available to assess impact severity for a given rarity of SWF hazard. Whilst the SWF hazard footprint is calculated in real-time using 1, 3 and 6 hour accumulations of G2G surface runoff on a 1 km grid, it has been possible to associate these with the effective rainfall design profiles (at 250m resolution) used as input to a detailed flood inundation model (JFlow+) run offline to produce hazard information resolved to 2m resolution. This information is contained in the updated Flood Map for Surface Water (uFMfSW) held by the Environment Agency. The national impact datasets can then be used with the uFMfSW SWF hazard dataset to assess impacts at this scale and severity levels of potential impact assigned at 1km and for aggregated county areas in real-time. The impact component is being led by the Health and Safety Laboratory (HSL) within the NHP

  5. Artificial Intelligence as a Business Forecasting and Error Handling Tool

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md. Tabrez Quasim

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available  Any business enterprise must rely a lot on how well it can predict the future happenings. To cope up with the modern global customer demand, technological challenges, market competitions etc., any organization is compelled to foresee the future having maximum impact and least chances of errors. The traditional forecasting approaches have some limitations. That is why the business world is adopting the modern Artificial Intelligence based forecasting techniques. This paper has tried to present different types of forecasting and AI techniques that are useful in business forecasting. At the later stage we have also discussed the forecasting errors and the steps involved in planning the AI support system.

  6. The Impact of Implementing a Demand Forecasting System into a Low-Income Country’s Supply Chain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, Leslie E.; Haidari, Leila A.; Wateska, Angela R.; Phillips, Roslyn J.; Schmitz, Michelle M.; Connor, Diana L.; Norman, Bryan A.; Brown, Shawn T.; Welling, Joel S.; Lee, Bruce Y.

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVE To evaluate the potential impact and value of applications (e.g., ordering levels, storage capacity, transportation capacity, distribution frequency) of data from demand forecasting systems implemented in a lower-income country’s vaccine supply chain with different levels of population change to urban areas. MATERIALS AND METHODS Using our software, HERMES, we generated a detailed discrete event simulation model of Niger’s entire vaccine supply chain, including every refrigerator, freezer, transport, personnel, vaccine, cost, and location. We represented the introduction of a demand forecasting system to adjust vaccine ordering that could be implemented with increasing delivery frequencies and/or additions of cold chain equipment (storage and/or transportation) across the supply chain during varying degrees of population movement. RESULTS Implementing demand forecasting system with increased storage and transport frequency increased the number of successfully administered vaccine doses and lowered the logistics cost per dose up to 34%. Implementing demand forecasting system without storage/transport increases actually decreased vaccine availability in certain circumstances. DISCUSSION The potential maximum gains of a demand forecasting system may only be realized if the system is implemented to both augment the supply chain cold storage and transportation. Implementation may have some impact but, in certain circumstances, may hurt delivery. Therefore, implementation of demand forecasting systems with additional storage and transport may be the better approach. Significant decreases in the logistics cost per dose with more administered vaccines support investment in these forecasting systems. CONCLUSION Demand forecasting systems have the potential to greatly improve vaccine demand fulfillment, and decrease logistics cost/dose when implemented with storage and transportation increases direct vaccines. Simulation modeling can demonstrate the potential

  7. Impacts of Amazonia biomass burning aerosols assessed from short-range weather forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. R. Kolusu

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The direct radiative impacts of biomass burning aerosols (BBA on meteorology are investigated using short-range forecasts from the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM over South America during the South American Biomass Burning Analysis (SAMBBA. The impacts are evaluated using a set of three simulations: (i no aerosols, (ii with monthly mean aerosol climatologies and (iii with prognostic aerosols modelled using the Coupled Large-scale Aerosol Simulator for Studies In Climate (CLASSIC scheme. Comparison with observations show that the prognostic CLASSIC scheme provides the best representation of BBA. The impacts of BBA are quantified over central and southern Amazonia from the first and second day of 2-day forecasts during 14 September–3 October 2012. On average, during the first day of the forecast, including prognostic BBA reduces the clear-sky net radiation at the surface by 15 ± 1 W m−2 and reduces net top-of-atmosphere (TOA radiation by 8 ± 1 W m−2, with a direct atmospheric warming of 7 ± 1 W m−2. BBA-induced reductions in all-sky radiation are smaller in magnitude: 9.0 ± 1 W m−2 at the surface and 4.0 ± 1 W m−2 at TOA. In this modelling study the BBA therefore exert an overall cooling influence on the Earth–atmosphere system, although some levels of the atmosphere are directly warmed by the absorption of solar radiation. Due to the reduction of net radiative flux at the surface, the mean 2 m air temperature is reduced by around 0.1 ± 0.02 °C. The BBA also cools the boundary layer (BL but warms air above by around 0.2 °C due to the absorption of shortwave radiation. The overall impact is to reduce the BL depth by around 19 ± 8 m. These differences in heating lead to a more anticyclonic circulation at 700 hPa, with winds changing by around 0.6 m s−1. Inclusion of climatological or prognostic BBA in the MetUM makes a small but significant improvement in forecasts of temperature and relative humidity, but improvements were

  8. Data Assimilation of AIRS Water Vapor Profiles: Impact on Precipitation Forecasts for Atmospheric River Cases Affecting the Western of the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blankenship, Clay; Zavodsky, Bradley; Jedlovec, Gary; Wick, Gary; Neiman, Paul

    2013-01-01

    Atmospheric rivers are transient, narrow regions in the atmosphere responsible for the transport of large amounts of water vapor. These phenomena can have a large impact on precipitation. In particular, they can be responsible for intense rain events on the western coast of North America during the winter season. This paper focuses on attempts to improve forecasts of heavy precipitation events in the Western US due to atmospheric rivers. Profiles of water vapor derived from from Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) observations are combined with GFS forecasts by a three-dimensional variational data assimilation in the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI). Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) forecasts initialized from the combined field are compared to forecasts initialized from the GFS forecast only for 3 test cases in the winter of 2011. Results will be presented showing the impact of the AIRS profile data on water vapor and temperature fields, and on the resultant precipitation forecasts.

  9. High Impact Technology Compact Combustion (HITCC) Compact Core Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    the CO and CO2 net reaction rates from the FGM. This, in turn, provides another benefit . That is, the source term in YC is not just now dependent on...AFRL-RQ-WP-TR-2016-0010 HIGH IMPACT TECHNOLOGY COMPACT COMBUSTION (HITCC) COMPACT CORE TECHNOLOGIES Andrew W. Caswell Combustion...information exchange, and its publication does not constitute the Government’s approval or disapproval of its ideas or findings. *Disseminated

  10. Including Impacts of Climate Change in Long-Range Forecasts of Future Tuolumne River Streamflow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenward, T.; Crawford, N. H.; Dufour, A.; McGurk, B. J.; Monier, W.

    2011-12-01

    Future streamflow is assessed for the Tuolumne River, a representative watershed in Sierra Nevada Mountains in California that provides 85% of the San Francisco Public Utility Commission's water supply for 2.5 million Bay Area residents and water to 8000 agricultural customers and over 200,000 electrical customers of the Turlock and Modesto Irrigation Districts. The Hydrocomp Forecasting and Analysis Model (HFAM) is a hydrologic simulation model which provides probabilistic inflow forecasts based on a continuous long-term simulation of a watershed driven by a historical meteorological database. The HFAM model is used to assess potential changes in the timing and volume of streamflow by driving the model with a long-term meteorological database that has been altered to represent the future climate in a specific year, for a given climate change scenario. In the Tuolumne, historical trends show increases to daily minimum temperatures but not to daily maximum temperatures. A static meteorological database that represents the current climate condition is generated by removing trends from historical data. Climate change scenarios for paired changes in temperature and precipitation were developed based on the range of predictions by global climate models. For each future climate condition, hourly temperature increases to the static database are calculated that are consistent with historical trends in daily minimum temperatures, while retaining a reasonable daily range in temperatures. Changes in future seasonal and annual probabilistic inflow forecasts are given for the Tuolumne River for each climate change scenario. The results show the importance of using probabilistic methods to assess climate change rather than mean values because impacts are more significant in low streamflow years.

  11. Impact of Interactive Aerosol on the African Easterly Jet in the NASA GEOS-5 Global Forecasting System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reale, O.; Lau, K. M.; da Silva, A.

    2010-01-01

    The real-time treatment of interactive realistically varying aerosol in a global operational forecasting system, as opposed to prescribed (fixed or climatologically varying) aerosols, is a very difficult challenge that only recently begins to be addressed. Experiment results from a recent version of the NASA GEOS-5 forecasting system, inclusive of interactive aerosol treatment, are presented in this work. Four sets of 30 5-day forecasts are initialized from a high quality set of analyses previously produced and documented to cover the period from 15 August to 16 September 2006, which corresponds to the NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (NAMMA) observing campaign. The four forecast sets are at two different horizontal resolutions and with and without interactive aerosol treatment. The net impact of aerosol, at times in which there is a strong dust outbreak, is a temperature increase at the dust level and decrease in the near-surface levels, in complete agreement with previous observational and modeling studies. Moreover, forecasts in which interactive aerosols are included depict an African Easterly (AEJ) at slightly higher elevation, and slightly displace northward, with respect to the forecasts in which aerosols are not include. The shift in the AEJ position goes in the direction of observations and agrees with previous results.

  12. Impact Assessment of Uncertainty Propagation of Ensemble NWP Rainfall to Flood Forecasting with Catchment Scale

    OpenAIRE

    Wansik Yu; Eiichi Nakakita; Sunmin Kim; Kosei Yamaguchi

    2016-01-01

    The common approach to quantifying the precipitation forecast uncertainty is ensemble simulations where a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model is run for a number of cases with slightly different initial conditions. In practice, the spread of ensemble members in terms of flood discharge is used as a measure of forecast uncertainty due to uncertain precipitation forecasts. This study presents the uncertainty propagation of rainfall forecast into hydrological response with catchment scale t...

  13. Uncertainty propagation for flood forecasting in the Alps: different views and impacts from MAP D-PHASE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. W. Rotach

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available D-PHASE was a Forecast Demonstration Project of the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP related to the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP. Its goal was to demonstrate the reliability and quality of operational forecasting of orographically influenced (determined precipitation in the Alps and its consequences on the distribution of run-off characteristics. A special focus was, of course, on heavy-precipitation events.

    The D-PHASE Operations Period (DOP ran from June to November~2007, during which an end-to-end forecasting system was operated covering many individual catchments in the Alps, with their water authorities, civil protection organizations or other end users. The forecasting system's core piece was a Visualization Platform where precipitation and flood warnings from some 30 atmospheric and 7 hydrological models (both deterministic and probabilistic and corresponding model fields were displayed in uniform and comparable formats. Also, meteograms, nowcasting information and end user communication was made available to all the forecasters, users and end users. D-PHASE information was assessed and used by some 50 different groups ranging from atmospheric forecasters to civil protection authorities or water management bodies.

    In the present contribution, D-PHASE is briefly presented along with its outstanding scientific results and, in particular, the lessons learnt with respect to uncertainty propagation. A focus is thereby on the transfer of ensemble prediction information into the hydrological community and its use with respect to other aspects of societal impact. Objective verification of forecast quality is contrasted to subjective quality assessments during the project (end user workshops, questionnaires and some general conclusions concerning forecast demonstration projects are drawn.

  14. Rapid Retrieval and Assimilation of Ground Based GPS-Met Observations at the NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory: Impact on Weather Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutman, S.

    2003-04-01

    shorter forecast cycles and higher spatial resolution in mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, and the use by weather forecasters in subjective forecasting and/or model verification. GPS and ancillary surface meteorological observations, and improved satellite orbits, must be available on demand. Data processing hardware and techniques must provide GPS-Met retrievals in sufficient time to be assimilated into the current model cycle. Model data assimilation techniques must minimize the errors in estimating the initial state of a numerical forecast that come from spatial and temporal aliasing when interpolating discrete observations into an "analysis increment" field. While more GPS-Met retrievals can minimize horizontal aliasing, they can do little to minimize vertical aliasing that comes from assimilating any vertically integrated quantity (e.g. satellite radiances, zenith tropospheric signal delays, or GPS-IPW retrievals) into an NWP model. This is primarily because the forecast background error at a discrete vertical level must be estimated from the difference between observed and forecast integrated quantities. Absent the development of a new observing system or measurement technique, we must rely on improved data assimilation techniques, coupled with the more efficient use of complementary observing systems, to improve the three-dimensional description of moisture in the atmosphere. NOAA/FSL has conducted data denial experiments since 1998 to determine the statistical impact that GPS-IPW retrievals have on 3-hour moisture and precipitation forecasts in the central United States. Results from 5-years of experiments indicate more or less continuous improvement in forecast skill as the GPS-Met network expands. Improvements are observed in relative humidity forecast accuracy at all levels below 500 hPa, and all precipitation levels above “trace”. The impact steadily decreases with the length of the forecast; it is usually substantial from 0-3 hours, and

  15. Assessing the Impact of Advanced Satellite Observations in the NASA GEOS-5 Forecast System Using the Adjoint Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelaro, Ron; Liu, Emily; Sienkiewicz, Meta

    2011-01-01

    The adjoint of a data assimilation system provides a flexible and efficient tool for estimating observation impacts on short-range weather forecasts. The impacts of any or all observations can be estimated simultaneously based on a single execution of the adjoint system. The results can be easily aggregated according to data type, location, channel, etc., making this technique especially attractive for examining the impacts of new hyper-spectral satellite instruments and for conducting regular, even near-real time, monitoring of the entire observing system. In this talk, we present results from the adjoint-based observation impact monitoring tool in NASA's GEOS-5 global atmospheric data assimilation and forecast system. The tool has been running in various off-line configurations for some time, and is scheduled to run as a regular part of the real-time forecast suite beginning in autumn 20 I O. We focus on the impacts of the newest components of the satellite observing system, including AIRS, IASI and GPS. For AIRS and IASI, it is shown that the vast majority of the channels assimilated have systematic positive impacts (of varying magnitudes), although some channels degrade the forecast. Of the latter, most are moisture-sensitive or near-surface channels. The impact of GPS observations in the southern hemisphere is found to be a considerable overall benefit to the system. In addition, the spatial variability of observation impacts reveals coherent patterns of positive and negative impacts that may point to deficiencies in the use of certain observations over, for example, specific surface types. When performed in conjunction with selected observing system experiments (OSEs), the adjoint results reveal both redundancies and dependencies between observing system impacts as observations are added or removed from the assimilation system. Understanding these dependencies appears to pose a major challenge for optimizing the use of the current observational network and

  16. Predicting the local impacts of energy development: a critical guide to forecasting methods and models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanderson, D.; O' Hare, M.

    1977-05-01

    Models forecasting second-order impacts from energy development vary in their methodology, output, assumptions, and quality. As a rough dichotomy, they either simulate community development over time or combine various submodels providing community snapshots at selected points in time. Using one or more methods - input/output models, gravity models, econometric models, cohort-survival models, or coefficient models - they estimate energy-development-stimulated employment, population, public and private service needs, and government revenues and expenditures at some future time (ranging from annual to average year predictions) and for different governmental jurisdictions (municipal, county, state, etc.). Underlying assumptions often conflict, reflecting their different sources - historical data, comparative data, surveys, and judgments about future conditions. Model quality, measured by special features, tests, exportability and usefulness to policy-makers, reveals careful and thorough work in some cases and hurried operations with insufficient in-depth analysis in others.

  17. Evaluating the Impact of AIRS Observations on Regional Forecasts at the SPoRT Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zavodsky, Bradley

    2011-01-01

    NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center collaborates with operational partners of different sizes and operational goals to improve forecasts using targeted projects and data sets. Modeling and DA activities focus on demonstrating utility of NASA data sets and capabilities within operational systems. SPoRT has successfully assimilated the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) radiance and profile data. A collaborative project is underway with the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) to use AIRS profiles to better understand the impact of AIRS radiances assimilated within Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) in hopes of engaging the operational DA community in a reassessment of assimilation methodologies to more effectively assimilate hyperspectral radiances.

  18. Parameter estimation using the genetic algorithm and its impact on quantitative precipitation forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. H. Lee

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, optimal parameter estimations are performed for both physical and computational parameters in a mesoscale meteorological model, and their impacts on the quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF are assessed for a heavy rainfall case occurred at the Korean Peninsula in June 2005. Experiments are carried out using the PSU/NCAR MM5 model and the genetic algorithm (GA for two parameters: the reduction rate of the convective available potential energy in the Kain-Fritsch (KF scheme for cumulus parameterization, and the Asselin filter parameter for numerical stability. The fitness function is defined based on a QPF skill score. It turns out that each optimized parameter significantly improves the QPF skill. Such improvement is maximized when the two optimized parameters are used simultaneously. Our results indicate that optimizations of computational parameters as well as physical parameters and their adequate applications are essential in improving model performance.

  19. Current and Potential Use of Technology Forecasting Tools in the Federal Government

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-01

    seeks to “develop and test methods for generating accurate forecasts for significant [S&T] milestones, by combining the judgements of many experts.”2 To...a primarily respondent-driven sampling method was used to identify and facilitate contact with appropriate individuals. An initial list of...Forecasting ............................................15 1. Agencies that Use Automated Methods ......................................................15 2

  20. Impact of single-point GPS integrated water vapor estimates on short-range WRF model forecasts over southern India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Prashant; Gopalan, Kaushik; Shukla, Bipasha Paul; Shyam, Abhineet

    2016-09-01

    Specifying physically consistent and accurate initial conditions is one of the major challenges of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. In this study, ground-based global positioning system (GPS) integrated water vapor (IWV) measurements available from the International Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) Service (IGS) station in Bangalore, India, are used to assess the impact of GPS data on NWP model forecasts over southern India. Two experiments are performed with and without assimilation of GPS-retrieved IWV observations during the Indian winter monsoon period (November-December, 2012) using a four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation method. Assimilation of GPS data improved the model IWV analysis as well as the subsequent forecasts. There is a positive impact of ˜10 % over Bangalore and nearby regions. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model-predicted 24-h surface temperature forecasts have also improved when compared with observations. Small but significant improvements were found in the rainfall forecasts compared to control experiments.

  1. Impact of additional surface observation network on short range weather forecast during summer monsoon 2008 over Indian subcontinent

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Prashant Kumar; Randhir Singh; P C Joshi; P K Pal

    2011-02-01

    The three dimensional variational data assimilation scheme (3D-Var) is employed in the recently developed Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Assimilation experiments have been conducted to assess the impact of Indian Space Research Organisation’s (ISRO) Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) surface observations (temperature and moisture) on the short range forecast over the Indian region. In this study, two experiments, CNT (without AWS observations) and EXP (with AWS observations) were made for 24-h forecast starting daily at 0000 UTC during July 2008. The impact of assimilation of AWS surface observations were assessed in comparison to the CNT experiment. The spatial distribution of the improvement parameter for temperature, relative humidity and wind speed from one month assimilation experiments demonstrated that for 24-h forecast, AWS observations provide valuable information. Assimilation of AWS observed temperature and relative humidity improved the analysis as well as 24-h forecast. The rainfall prediction has been improved due to the assimilation of AWS data, with the largest improvement seen over the Western Ghat and eastern India.

  2. Technology's Impact on Production

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rachel Amann; Ellis Deweese; Deborah Shipman

    2009-06-30

    As part of a cooperative agreement with the United States Department of Energy (DOE) - entitled Technology's Impact on Production: Developing Environmental Solutions at the State and National Level - the Interstate Oil and Gas Compact Commission (IOGCC) has been tasked with assisting state governments in the effective, efficient, and environmentally sound regulation of the exploration and production of natural gas and crude oil, specifically in relation to orphaned and abandoned wells and wells nearing the end of productive life. Project goals include: (1) Developing (a) a model framework for prioritization and ranking of orphaned or abandoned well sites; (b) a model framework for disbursement of Energy Policy Act of 2005 funding; and (c) a research study regarding the current status of orphaned wells in the nation. (2) Researching the impact of new technologies on environmental protection from a regulatory perspective. Research will identify and document (a) state reactions to changing technology and knowledge; (b) how those reactions support state environmental conservation and public health; and (c) the impact of those reactions on oil and natural gas production. (3) Assessing emergent technology issues associated with wells nearing the end of productive life. Including: (a) location of orphaned and abandoned well sites; (b) well site remediation; (c) plugging materials; (d) plug placement; (e) the current regulatory environment; and (f) the identification of emergent technologies affecting end of life wells. New Energy Technologies - Regulating Change, is the result of research performed for Tasks 2 and 3.

  3. An Integrated Modeling Framework Forecasting Ecosystem Exposure-- A Systems Approach to the Cumulative Impacts of Multiple Stressors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, J. M.

    2013-12-01

    Freshwater habitats provide fishable, swimmable and drinkable resources and are a nexus of geophysical and biological processes. These processes in turn influence the persistence and sustainability of populations, communities and ecosystems. Climate change and landuse change encompass numerous stressors of potential exposure, including the introduction of toxic contaminants, invasive species, and disease in addition to physical drivers such as temperature and hydrologic regime. A systems approach that includes the scientific and technologic basis of assessing the health of ecosystems is needed to effectively protect human health and the environment. The Integrated Environmental Modeling Framework 'iemWatersheds' has been developed as a consistent and coherent means of forecasting the cumulative impact of co-occurring stressors. The Framework consists of three facilitating technologies: Data for Environmental Modeling (D4EM) that automates the collection and standardization of input data; the Framework for Risk Assessment of Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES) that manages the flow of information between linked models; and the Supercomputer for Model Uncertainty and Sensitivity Evaluation (SuperMUSE) that provides post-processing and analysis of model outputs, including uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Five models are linked within the Framework to provide multimedia simulation capabilities for hydrology and water quality processes: the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) predicts surface water and sediment runoff and associated contaminants; the Watershed Mercury Model (WMM) predicts mercury runoff and loading to streams; the Water quality Analysis and Simulation Program (WASP) predicts water quality within the stream channel; the Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) model scores physicochemical habitat quality for individual fish species; and the Bioaccumulation and Aquatic System Simulator (BASS) predicts fish growth, population dynamics and bioaccumulation

  4. Impact Assessment of Uncertainty Propagation of Ensemble NWP Rainfall to Flood Forecasting with Catchment Scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wansik Yu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The common approach to quantifying the precipitation forecast uncertainty is ensemble simulations where a numerical weather prediction (NWP model is run for a number of cases with slightly different initial conditions. In practice, the spread of ensemble members in terms of flood discharge is used as a measure of forecast uncertainty due to uncertain precipitation forecasts. This study presents the uncertainty propagation of rainfall forecast into hydrological response with catchment scale through distributed rainfall-runoff modeling based on the forecasted ensemble rainfall of NWP model. At first, forecast rainfall error based on the BIAS is compared with flood forecast error to assess the error propagation. Second, the variability of flood forecast uncertainty according to catchment scale is discussed using ensemble spread. Then we also assess the flood forecast uncertainty with catchment scale using an estimation regression equation between ensemble rainfall BIAS and discharge BIAS. Finally, the flood forecast uncertainty with RMSE using specific discharge in catchment scale is discussed. Our study is carried out and verified using the largest flood event by typhoon “Talas” of 2011 over the 33 subcatchments of Shingu river basin (2,360 km2, which is located in the Kii Peninsula, Japan.

  5. The Impact of ENSO on Extratropical Low Frequency Noise in Seasonal Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schubert, Siegfried D.; Suarez, Max J.; Chang, Yehui; Branstator, Grant

    2000-01-01

    This study examines the uncertainty in forecasts of the January-February-March (JFM) mean extratropical circulation, and how that uncertainty is modulated by the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The analysis is based on ensembles of hindcasts made with an Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) forced with sea surface temperatures observed during; the 1983 El Nino and 1989 La Nina events. The AGCM produces pronounced interannual differences in the magnitude of the extratropical seasonal mean noise (intra-ensemble variability). The North Pacific, in particular, shows extensive regions where the 1989 seasonal mean noise kinetic energy (SKE), which is dominated by a "PNA-like" spatial structure, is more than twice that of the 1983 forecasts. The larger SKE in 1989 is associated with a larger than normal barotropic conversion of kinetic energy from the mean Pacific jet to the seasonal mean noise. The generation of SKE due to sub-monthly transients also shows substantial interannual differences, though these are much smaller than the differences in the mean flow conversions. An analysis of the Generation of monthly mean noise kinetic energy (NIKE) and its variability suggests that the seasonal mean noise is predominantly a statistical residue of variability resulting from dynamical processes operating on monthly and shorter times scales. A stochastically-forced barotropic model (linearized about the AGCM's 1983 and 1989 base states) is used to further assess the role of the basic state, submonthly transients, and tropical forcing, in modulating the uncertainties in the seasonal AGCM forecasts. When forced globally with spatially-white noise, the linear model generates much larger variance for the 1989 base state, consistent with the AGCM results. The extratropical variability for the 1989 base state is dominanted by a single eigenmode, and is strongly coupled with forcing over tropical western Pacific and the Indian Ocean, again consistent with the AGCM results

  6. Impacts of Forecasted Climate Change on Snowpack, Glacier Recession, and Streamflow in the Nooksack River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, R. D.; Mitchell, R. J.; Bandaragoda, C.; Grah, O. J.

    2015-12-01

    Like many watersheds in the North Cascades Mountain range, streamflow in the Nooksack River is strongly influenced by precipitation and snowmelt in the spring and glacial melt in the warmer summer months. With a maritime climate and a high relief basin with glacial ice (3400 hectares), the streamflow response in the Nooksack is sensitive to increases in temperature, thus forecasting the basins response to future climate is of vital importance for water resources planning purposes. The watershed (2000 km2) in the northwest of Washington, USA, is a valuable freshwater resource for regional municipalities, industry, and agriculture, and provides critical habitat for endangered salmon species. Due to a lack of spatially distributed long-term historical weather observations in the basin for downscaling purposes, we apply publically available statistically derived 1/16 degree gridded surface data along with the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM; Wigmosta et al., 1992) with newly developed coupled dynamic glacier model (Clarke et al., 2015) to simulate hydrologic processes in the Nooksack River basin. We calibrate and validate the DHSVM to observed glacial mass balance and glacial ice extent as well as to observed daily streamflow and SNOTEL data in the Nooksack basin. For the historical period, we model using a gridded meteorological forcing data set (1950-2010; Livneh et al., 2013). We simulate forecasted climate change impacts, including glacial recession on streamflow, using gridded daily statically downscaled data from global climate models of the CMIP5 with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 forcing scenarios developed using the multivariate adaptive constructed analogs method (Abatzoglou and Brown, 2011). Simulation results project an increase in winter streamflows due to more rainfall rather than snow, and a decrease in summer flows with a general shift in peak spring flows toward earlier in the spring. Glacier melt contribution to streamflow initially increases

  7. Impact on the short-term forecast using radar data assimilation on the South and Southeast region of Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herdies, Dirceu; Viana, Liviany; Souza, Diego; Vendrasco, Eder

    2017-04-01

    The objective of this study was to analyze the behavior of the precipitation related to the numerical weather forecast employing the Atmospheric Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) and the Data assimilation Weather Research and Forecasting model Data Assimilation Three Dimensional-Variational (WRFDA / 3D-VAR) system for a Convective system occurred in the summer of 2015/2016 on the southern and southeastern regions of Brazil. The datasets used were radar data in the region of interest and observational data from the Global Telecommunications System (GTS). The data assimilated were radial velocity (directly) and reflectivity (indirectly) and variables of the state - air temperature, surface pressure, wind speed and direction, among others. Three experiments were performed to evaluate the weather forecast for the selected case: i) without any type of assimilation, (ii) assimilated GTS data, and (iii) assimilated data from available radars. The prediction until to 6 hours of convective system intensity was evaluated, which were validated with the combined precipitation data from satellites and surface. The results showed the positive impact of the short-term forecast using experiments with the radar and GTS data when compared to the experiment without using them. Thus, this study is expected to contribute to the development of modeling and the operation of the assimilation of radar data in the numerical weather prediction over the regions of study.

  8. Impact of urban parameterization on high resolution air quality forecast with the GEM – AQ model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Struzewska

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to assess the impact of urban cover on high-resolution air quality forecast simulations with the GEM-AQ (Global Environmental Multiscale and Air Quality model. The impact of urban area on the ambient atmosphere is non-stationary, and short-term variability of meteorological conditions may result in significant changes of the observed intensity of urban heat island and pollutant concentrations. In this study we used the Town Energy Balance (TEB parameterization to represent urban effects on modelled meteorological and air quality parameters at the final nesting level with horizontal resolution of ~5 km over Southern Poland. Three one-day cases representing different meteorological conditions were selected and the model was run with and without the TEB parameterization. Three urban cover categories were used in the TEB parameterization: mid-high buildings, very low buildings and low density suburbs. Urban cover layers were constructed based on an area fraction of towns in a grid cell. To analyze the impact of urban parameterization on modelled meteorological and air quality parameters, anomalies in the lowest model layer for the air temperature, wind speed and pollutant concentrations were calculated. Anomalies of the specific humidity fields indicate that the use of the TEB parameterization leads to a systematic reduction of moisture content in the air. Comparison with temperature and wind speed measurements taken at urban background monitoring stations shows that application of urban parameterization improves model results. For primary pollutants the impact of urban areas is most significant in regions characterized with high emissions. In most cases the anomalies of NO2 and CO concentrations were negative. This reduction is most likely caused by an enhanced vertical mixing due to elevated surface temperature and modified vertical stability.

  9. Impact of urban parameterization on high resolution air quality forecast with the GEM - AQ model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Struzewska, J.; Kaminski, J. W.

    2012-11-01

    The aim of this study is to assess the impact of urban cover on high-resolution air quality forecast simulations with the GEM-AQ (Global Environmental Multiscale and Air Quality) model. The impact of urban area on the ambient atmosphere is non-stationary, and short-term variability of meteorological conditions may result in significant changes of the observed intensity of urban heat island and pollutant concentrations. In this study we used the Town Energy Balance (TEB) parameterization to represent urban effects on modelled meteorological and air quality parameters at the final nesting level with horizontal resolution of ~5 km over Southern Poland. Three one-day cases representing different meteorological conditions were selected and the model was run with and without the TEB parameterization. Three urban cover categories were used in the TEB parameterization: mid-high buildings, very low buildings and low density suburbs. Urban cover layers were constructed based on an area fraction of towns in a grid cell. To analyze the impact of urban parameterization on modelled meteorological and air quality parameters, anomalies in the lowest model layer for the air temperature, wind speed and pollutant concentrations were calculated. Anomalies of the specific humidity fields indicate that the use of the TEB parameterization leads to a systematic reduction of moisture content in the air. Comparison with temperature and wind speed measurements taken at urban background monitoring stations shows that application of urban parameterization improves model results. For primary pollutants the impact of urban areas is most significant in regions characterized with high emissions. In most cases the anomalies of NO2 and CO concentrations were negative. This reduction is most likely caused by an enhanced vertical mixing due to elevated surface temperature and modified vertical stability.

  10. Impact of new technologies on diabetes care

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2015-01-01

    Technologies for diabetes management, such ascontinuous subcutaneous insulin infusion (CSII) andcontinuous glucose monitoring (CGM) systems, haveimproved remarkably over the last decades. Thesedevelopments are impacting the capacity to achieverecommended hemoglobin A1c levels and assisting inpreventing the development and progression of microandmacro vascular complications. While improvementsin metabolic control and decreases in risk of severe andmoderate hypoglycemia have been described with useof these technologies, large epidemiological internationalstudies show that many patients are still unable to meettheir glycemic goals, even when these technologies areused. This editorial will review the impact of technologyon glycemic control, hypoglycemia and quality of life inchildren and youth with type 1 diabetes. Technologiesreviewed include CSII, CGM systems and sensoraugmentedinsulin pumps. In addition, the usefulnessof advanced functions such as bolus profiles, bolus calculatorsand threshold-suspend features will be alsodiscussed. Moreover, the current editorial will explore thechallenges of using these technologies. Indeed, despitethe evidence currently available of the potential benefitsof using advanced technologies in diabetes management,many patients still report barriers to using them. Finallythis article will highlight the importance of future studiestailored toward overcome these barriers to optimizingglycemic control and avoiding severe hypoglycemia.

  11. 光伏功率预测技术%An Overview of Photovoltaic Energy System Output Forecasting Technology

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    龚莺飞; 鲁宗相; 乔颖; 王强

    2016-01-01

    Forecast of photovoltaic energy system output is a crucial technology to improve the performance of photovoltaic energy stations,and plays a fundamental role in the secure and stable operation of power grid with high penetration of photovoltaic generation.Since photovoltaic energy system forecasting is still at very early stage,it is critical to understand its technical roadmap and key problems.This paper gives a comprehensive review of the basic technical principles and key problems in the photovoltaic energy forecasting.Firstly,the basic principle and methods of photovoltaic energy forecasting are introduced.Then the key technical points of ultra-short term and short term forecasting are summarized,specially focusing on the forecasting accuracy.Finally,the key issues of photovoltaic energy forecasting are summarized from the prospective of Chinese market.%光伏功率预测是提高光伏电站控制、调度性能,保障高比率光伏发电接入的电网安全稳定运行的基础性关键技术。国内光伏功率预测技术研究和工程应用尚处于起步阶段,理清其技术脉络和关键问题尤其迫切。文中对光伏功率预测基本技术原理和关键问题进行了全面综述,首先介绍其基本原理和预测模式,然后总结了超短期和短期预测的主要技术要点,并着重对提升预测精度的相关研究进行评述,最后结合中国光伏功率预测发展现状,提出了值得研究和关注的光伏功率预测关键问题。

  12. Hypervelocity impact technology and applications: 2007.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reinhart, William Dodd; Chhabildas, Lalit C. (Air Force Research Laboratory, AFRL/RWMW, Eglin AFB, FL)

    2008-07-01

    The Hypervelocity Impact Society is devoted to the advancement of the science and technology of hypervelocity impact and related technical areas required to facilitate and understand hypervelocity impact phenomena. Topics of interest include experimental methods, theoretical techniques, analytical studies, phenomenological studies, dynamic material response as related to material properties (e.g., equation of state), penetration mechanics, and dynamic failure of materials, planetary physics and other related phenomena. The objectives of the Society are to foster the development and exchange of technical information in the discipline of hypervelocity impact phenomena, promote technical excellence, encourage peer review publications, and hold technical symposia on a regular basis. It was sometime in 1985, partly in response to the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), that a small group of visionaries decided that a conference or symposium on hypervelocity science would be useful and began the necessary planning. A major objective of the first Symposium was to bring the scientists and researchers up to date by reviewing the essential developments of hypervelocity science and technology between 1955 and 1985. This Symposia--HVIS 2007 is the tenth Symposium since that beginning. The papers presented at all the HVIS are peer reviewed and published as a special volume of the archival journal International Journal of Impact Engineering. HVIS 2007 followed the same high standards and its proceedings will add to this body of work.

  13. Impact of aerosols on the forecast accuracy of solar irradiance calculated by a numerical weather prediction model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimose, Ken-ichi; Ohtake, Hideaki; Fonseca, Joao Gari da Silva; Takashima, Takumi; Oozeki, Takashi; Yamada, Yoshinori

    2014-10-01

    The impact of aerosols on the forecast accuracy of solar irradiance calculated by a fine-scale, one day-ahead, and operational numerical weather prediction model (NWP) is investigated in this study. In order to investigate the impact of aerosols only, the clear sky period is chosen, which is defined as when there are no clouds in the observation data and in the forecast data at the same time. The evaluation of the forecast accuracy of the solar irradiance is done at a single observation point that is sometimes affected by aerosol events. The analysis period is one year from April 2010 to March 2011. During the clear sky period, the root mean square errors (RMSE) of the global horizontal irradiance (GHI), direct normal irradiance (DNI), and diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) are 40.0 W m-2, 84.0 Wm-2, and 47.9 W m-2, respectively. During one extreme event, the RMSEs of the GHI, DNI, and DHI are 70.1 W m-2, 211.6 W m-2, and 141.7 W m-2, respectively. It is revealed that the extreme events were caused by aerosols such as dust or haze. In order to investigate the impact of the aerosols, the sensitivity experiments of the aerosol optical depth (AOD) for the extreme events are executed. The best result is obtained by changing the AOD to 2.5 times the original AOD. This changed AOD is consistent with the satellite observation. Thus, it is our conclusion that an accurate aerosol forecast is important for the forecast accuracy of the solar irradiance.

  14. The impact of different sea-surface temperature prediction scenarios on Southern African seasonal climate forecast skill

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available ) and reliability (whether the confidence communicated in the forecasts is appropriate). Rainfall forecasts produced by forcing the AGCM with dynamically predicted SSTs produce the higher skill, and ensemble mean SST forecasts lead to improved skill over forecasts...

  15. Climate Impacts Mid-1800's Deforestation in New England using the Weather, Research, and Forecasting Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burakowski, E. A.; Chen, M.; Birkel, S. D.; Wake, C. P.; Dibb, J. E.

    2012-12-01

    When colonists arrived in the New England region of the United States (US) in the 1600's, more than 90% of land area was forested. By the mid-1800's, half of the land area was deforested having been cleared extensively for timber, pasture, and to heat homes. Today, New Hampshire is one of the most forested states in the US, yet little is known about the local climate impacts resulting from reforestation. We hypothesize that the removal of forests in 1850 had a strong impact on wintertime climate through changes in surface albedo, roughness length, and other biogeophysical surface properties. This study investigates the climate impacts of historical deforestation on New England winter climate using the Weather, Research, and Forecasting model. The WRF simulations presented here utilize a triple-nested approach, with the innermost 4-km domain centered on the New England states for two land cover scenarios, (2) an historical 1850 deforested scenario derived from the History Database of the Global Environment (HYDE3) land cover dataset and (2) present-day reforested scenario derived from MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land cover data. ERA-Interim lateral boundary conditions are used to drive the model and results are compared for an above average snowfall winter (November 2008 through April 2009) and a below-average snowfall winter (November 2001 through April 2002). Simulations are ongoing but analysis of observational data suggests that nocturnal cooling is a dominant response to deforestation compared to forested areas. The results from the WRF modeling efforts in this study will help inform future land use decisions in the future.

  16. Impact of M-Technologies Report

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    朱文静

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of the paper is that discuss the positive and negative impact of m-technology on business and customers. Also providesoverview some specific characteristicsof mobile devices. In sociely, mobile devices provide convenient way for people check ernail, browser information, download music and pictures when there are not computer around them (CNNIC 20]0). For home communication, mobile devices make life easier. Mobile devices ere used in check family members safety and care.

  17. 基于专利分析的技术预测概念模型%Conceptual Model of Technology Forecast Based on Patent Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张韵君; 柳飞红

    2014-01-01

    国内外研究者对技术预测给予了不同的阐释。专利分析作为技术预测的一种有效工具,可以为技术创新提供有力的决策支持。针对特定技术领域的预测,是基于“专利三性”隐含的技术发展方向、技术发展水平和技术发展潜力的特征所作出的判断。因此,可以建立一个基于专利分析的技术预测概念模型。概念模型在纵向层次上分为总预测层、预测综合层、预测分析层和预测信息层。在此基础上,选择和运用相应的专利分析指标和方法,形成一个技术预测的专利分析方法框架,以指导实际的技术预测活动。技术预测的效用可以用技术的发展方向、发展水平和发展潜力这三个变量予以描述。但专利分析也存在局限性,需要与其它方法配合使用。%There are different definitions for technology forecast domestically and abroad. Being an effective tool for technology forecast, patent analysis is very helpful to technological innovation decision-making. Because the forecast in specific technology fields is based on features of technology development direction, level and potential implicated in the “three natures of patent”, so a conceptual model of technology forecast can be built on the basis of patent analysis. The proposed model consists four layers of overall forecast, forecast con-solidated, predictive analysis and forecast information from a longitudinal level. Based on this, corresponding indicators and methods of patent analysis can be chosen and used to build a patent analysis frame for technology forecast to guide the actual activities of technology forecast. The effectiveness of technology forecast can be described with the three variables of development direction, level and potential of technology. And it is suggested that other methods be used together with patent analysis because of its limitations.

  18. Comparison of the economic impact of different wind power forecast systems for producers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alessandrini, S.; Davò, F.; Sperati, S.; Benini, M.; Delle Monache, L.

    2014-05-01

    Deterministic forecasts of wind production for the next 72 h at a single wind farm or at the regional level are among the main end-users requirement. However, for an optimal management of wind power production and distribution it is important to provide, together with a deterministic prediction, a probabilistic one. A deterministic forecast consists of a single value for each time in the future for the variable to be predicted, while probabilistic forecasting informs on probabilities for potential future events. This means providing information about uncertainty (i.e. a forecast of the PDF of power) in addition to the commonly provided single-valued power prediction. A significant probabilistic application is related to the trading of energy in day-ahead electricity markets. It has been shown that, when trading future wind energy production, using probabilistic wind power predictions can lead to higher benefits than those obtained by using deterministic forecasts alone. In fact, by using probabilistic forecasting it is possible to solve economic model equations trying to optimize the revenue for the producer depending, for example, on the specific penalties for forecast errors valid in that market. In this work we have applied a probabilistic wind power forecast systems based on the "analog ensemble" method for bidding wind energy during the day-ahead market in the case of a wind farm located in Italy. The actual hourly income for the plant is computed considering the actual selling energy prices and penalties proportional to the unbalancing, defined as the difference between the day-ahead offered energy and the actual production. The economic benefit of using a probabilistic approach for the day-ahead energy bidding are evaluated, resulting in an increase of 23% of the annual income for a wind farm owner in the case of knowing "a priori" the future energy prices. The uncertainty on price forecasting partly reduces the economic benefit gained by using a

  19. North Florida Dairy Farmer Perceptions Toward the Use of Seasonal Climate Forecast Technology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cabrera, V.E.; Breuer, N.E. [Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, Gainesville, 256 Frazier Rogers Hall, PO Box 110570, FL 32611, Florida (United States); Hildebrand, P.E. [Food and Resource Economic Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, Gainesville, 1172 McCarty Hall, PO Box 110240, 32611-0240, Florida (United States)

    2006-10-15

    Evidence of increasing nitrogen levels in the Suwannee River Basin in North Florida demands a collaborative effort to find creative ways to reduce N pollution. This study explores the perspectives, perceptions, and attitudes of dairy farmers regarding adoption of climate forecasts as a potential way to mitigate the problem. These farmers are heavily scrutinized because of their nitrogen emissions. By contrasting scientists' pre-conceived attitudes about the usefulness of ENSO-based (El Nino/Southern Oscillation) forecasts with dairy farmers' perceptions, gathered in a participatory and consensual manner, valuable lessons were learned. A deeper understanding of the day to day realities of dairy farming systems help researchers pinpoint management adaptations that are not only useful, but feasible, in light of improved seasonal climate forecasts. Furthermore, dairy farmers' perceptions regarding the use of seasonal climate information to mitigate the nitrate problem are critical for designing future dairy systems.

  20. High Impact Weather Forecasts and Warnings with the GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodman, Steven; Blakeslee, Richard; Koshak, William; Mach, Douglas

    2011-01-01

    The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) is the next series to follow the existing GOES system currently operating over the Western Hemisphere. A major advancement over the current GOES include a new capability for total lightning detection (cloud and cloud-to-ground flashes) from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM). The GLM will operate continuously day and night with near-uniform spatial resolution of 8 km with a product refresh rate of less than 20 sec over the Americas and adjacent oceanic regions. This will aid in forecasting severe storms and tornado activity, and convective weather impacts on aviation safety and efficiency. In parallel with the instrument development, a GOES-R Risk Reduction Science Team and Algorithm Working Group Lightning Applications Team have begun to develop cal/val performance monitoring tools and new applications using the GLM alone, in conjunction with other instruments, and merged or blended integrated observing system products combining satellite, radar, in-situ and numerical models. Proxy total lightning data from the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite and regional ground-based lightning networks are being used to develop the pre-launch algorithms, test data sets, and applications, as well as improve our knowledge of thunderstorm initiation and evolution. In this presentation we review the planned implementation of the instrument and suite of operational algorithms.

  1. Impact of land-surface initialization on sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts over Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prodhomme, Chloé; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Bellprat, Omar; Dutra, Emanuel

    2016-08-01

    Land surfaces and soil conditions are key sources of climate predictability at the seasonal time scale. In order to estimate how the initialization of the land surface affects the predictability at seasonal time scale, we run two sets of seasonal hindcasts with the general circulation model EC-Earth2.3. The initialization of those hindcasts is done either with climatological or realistic land initialization in May using the ERA-Land re-analysis. Results show significant improvements in the initialized run occurring up to the last forecast month. The prediction of near-surface summer temperatures and precipitation at the global scale and over Europe are improved, as well as the warm extremes prediction. As an illustration, we show that the 2010 Russian heat wave is only predicted when soil moisture is initialized. No significant improvement is found for the retrospective prediction of the 2003 European heat wave, suggesting this event to be mainly large-scale driven. Thus, we confirm that late-spring soil moisture conditions can be decisive in triggering high-impact events in the following summer in Europe. Accordingly, accurate land-surface initial conditions are essential for seasonal predictions.

  2. Forecasting climate change impacts to plant community composition in the Sonoran Desert region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munson, Seth M.; Webb, Robert H.; Belnap, Jayne; Hubbard, J. Andrew; Swann, Don E.; Rutman, Sue

    2012-01-01

    Hotter and drier conditions projected for the southwestern United States can have a large impact on the abundance and composition of long-lived desert plant species. We used long-term vegetation monitoring results from 39 large plots across four protected sites in the Sonoran Desert region to determine how plant species have responded to past climate variability. This cross-site analysis identified the plant species and functional types susceptible to climate change, the magnitude of their responses, and potential climate thresholds. In the relatively mesic mesquite savanna communities, perennial grasses declined with a decrease in annual precipitation, cacti increased, and there was a reversal of the Prosopis velutina expansion experienced in the 20th century in response to increasing mean annual temperature (MAT). In the more xeric Arizona Upland communities, the dominant leguminous tree, Cercidium microphyllum, declined on hillslopes, and the shrub Fouquieria splendens decreased, especially on south- and west-facing slopes in response to increasing MAT. In the most xeric shrublands, the codominant species Larrea tridentata and its hemiparasite Krameria grayi decreased with a decrease in cool season precipitation and increased aridity, respectively. This regional-scale assessment of plant species response to recent climate variability is critical for forecasting future shifts in plant community composition, structure, and productivity.

  3. Impact of urban parameterization on high resolution air quality forecast with the GEM – AQ model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. W. Kaminski

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to assess the impact of urban cover on high-resolution air quality forecast simulations with the GEM-AQ model. The impact of urban area on the ambient atmosphere is non-stationary and short-term variability of meteorological conditions may result in significant changes of the observed intensity of urban heat island and pollutant concentrations. In this study we used the Town Energy Balance (TEB parameterization to represent urban effects on modelled meteorological and air quality parameters at the final nesting level with horizontal resolution of ~5 km over Southern Poland. Three one-day cases representing different meteorological conditions were selected and the model was run with and without the TEB parameterization. Three urban cover categories were used in the TEB parameterization: mid-high buildings, sparse buildings and a mix of buildings and nature. Urban cover layers were constructed based on an area fraction of towns in a grid cell. To analyze the impact of urban parameterization on modelled meteorological and air quality parameters, anomalies in the lowest model layer for the temperature, wind speed and pollutant concentrations were calculated. Anomalies of the specific humidity fields indicate that the use of the TEB parameterization leads to a systematic reduction of moisture content in the air. Comparison with temperature and wind speed measurements taken at urban background monitoring stations shows that application of urban parameterization improves model results. For primary pollutants the impact of urban areas is most significant in regions characterized with high emissions. In most cases the anomalies of NO2 and CO concentrations are negative. This reduction is most likely caused by an enhanced vertical mixing due to elevated surface temperature and modified vertical stability. Although the outcome from this study is promising, it does not give an answer concerning the benefits of using TEB in the GEM

  4. Impact of GFZ's Effective Angular Momentum Forecasts on Polar Motion Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dill, Robert; Dobslaw, Henryk

    2017-04-01

    The Earth System Modelling group at GeoForschungsZentrum (GFZ) Potsdam offers now 6-day forecasts of Earth rotation excitation due to atmospheric, oceanic, and hydrologic angular momentum changes that are consistent with its 40 years-long EAM series. Those EAM forecasts are characterized by an improved long-term consistency due to the introduction of a time-invariant high-resolution reference topography into the AAM processing that accounts for occasional NWP model changes. In addition, all tidal signals from both atmosphere and ocean have been separated, and the temporal resolution of both AAM and OAM has been increased to 3 hours. Analysis of an extended set of EAM short-term hindcasts revealed positive prediction skills for up to 6 days into the future when compared to a persistent forecast. Whereas UT1 predictions in particular rely on an accurate AAM forecast, skillfull polar motion prediction requires high-quality OAM forecasts as well. We will present in this contribution the results from a multi-year hindcast experiment, demonstrating that the polar motion prediction as currently available from Bulletin A can be improved in particular for lead-times between 2 and 5 days by incorporating OAM forecasts. We will also report about early results obtained at Observatoire de Paris to predict polar motion from the integration of GFZ's 6-day EAM forecasts into the Liouville equation in a routine setting, that fully takes into account the operational latencies of all required input products.

  5. The Impact of Lightning on Hurricane Rapid Intensification Forecasts Using the HWRF Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosado, K.; Tallapragada, V.; Jenkins, G. S.

    2016-12-01

    In 2010, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) created the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) with the main goal of improving the tropical cyclone intensity and track forecasts by 50% in ten years. One of the focus areas is the improvement of the tropical cyclone rapid intensification (RI) forecasts. In order to contribute to this task, the role of lightning during the life cycle of a tropical cyclone using the NCEP operational HWRF hurricane model has been investigated. We ask two key research questions: (1) What is the functional relationship between atmospheric moisture content, lightning, and intensity in the HWRF model? and (2) How well does the HWRF model forecast the spatial distributions of lightning before, during, and after tropical cyclone intensification, especially for RI events? In order to address those questions, a lightning parameterization scheme called the Lightning Potential Index (LPI) was implemented into the HWRF model. The selected study cases to test the LPI implementation on the 2015 HWRF (operational version) are: Earl and Joaquin (North Atlantic), Haiyan (Western North Pacific), and Patricia (Eastern North Pacific). Five-day forecasts was executed on each case study with emphasis on rapid intensification periods. An extensive analysis between observed "best track" intensity, model intensity forecast, and potential for lightning forecast was performed. Preliminary results show that: (1) strong correlation between lightning and intensity changes does exists; and (2) the potential for lightning increases to its maximum peak a few hours prior to the peak intensity of the tropical cyclone. LPI peak values could potentially serve as indicator for future rapid intensification periods. Results from this investigation are giving us a better understanding of the mechanism behind lightning as a proxy for tropical cyclone steady state intensification and tropical cyclone rapid intensification processes. Improvement of

  6. AN IMPACT STUDY OF A NEW TYPE OF DATA OF ADAPTIVE OR TARGETING OBSERVATION ON TYPHOON FORECAST

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    TAN Xiao-wei; CHEN De-hui; ZHANG Qing-hong

    2006-01-01

    There was a new concept of ‘adaptive or targeting observation' in recent years, which is an additional and targeting observation based on the existing and fixed observing network for the atmosphere on the impacted region. Dropsonde is one of the important observing instruments in the adaptive or targeting observation. In this paper, GRAPES, the next generation of numerical weather prediction system of China has been used. The impacts on the typhoon Dujuan (No.200315) forecast in experiments with dropsonde have been studied and experiments on sensitivity have also been done. It was found that the forecasts of the elements have been improved obviously with the use of dropsonde, such as the path, the center location, and the intensity of typhoon. It was also found in the sensitivity studies that the setting of deviation structure also has obvious impacts on the forecast for typhoons. It is not true that the simulation is better when the proportion of the data of dropsonde is larger in the course to modify the background.

  7. Impacts of Short-Term Solar Power Forecasts in System Operations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ibanez, Eduardo; Krad, Ibrahim; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Ela, Erik

    2016-05-05

    Solar generation is experiencing an exponential growth in power systems worldwide and, along with wind power, is posing new challenges to power system operations. Those challenges are characterized by an increase of system variability and uncertainty across many time scales: from days, down to hours, minutes, and seconds. Much of the research in the area has focused on the effect of solar forecasting across hours or days. This paper presents a methodology to capture the effect of short-term forecasting strategies and analyzes the economic and reliability implications of utilizing a simple, yet effective forecasting method for solar PV in intra-day operations.

  8. Structural equation modelling based data fusion for technology forecasting: A generic framework

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Staphorst, L

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available makers. Technology indicators are those sources of technology related data that allow for the direct characterisation and evaluation of technologies over their whole life cycle. Future-oriented Technology Analysis (FTA), which is a forward...

  9. The skill of ECMWF long range Forecasting System to drive impact models for health and hydrology in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Giuseppe, F.; Tompkins, A. M.; Lowe, R.; Dutra, E.; Wetterhall, F.

    2012-04-01

    As the quality of numerical weather prediction over the monthly to seasonal leadtimes steadily improves there is an increasing motivation to apply these fruitfully to the impacts sectors of health, water, energy and agriculture. Despite these improvements, the accuracy of fields such as temperature and precipitation that are required to drive sectoral models can still be poor. This is true globally, but particularly so in Africa, the region of focus in the present study. In the last year ECMWF has been particularly active through EU research founded projects in demonstrating the capability of its longer range forecasting system to drive impact modeling systems in this region. A first assessment on the consequences of the documented errors in ECMWF forecasting system is therefore presented here looking at two different application fields which we found particularly critical for Africa - vector-born diseases prevention and hydrological monitoring. A new malaria community model (VECTRI) has been developed at ICTP and tested for the 3 target regions participating in the QWECI project. The impacts on the mean malaria climate is assessed using the newly realized seasonal forecasting system (Sys4) with the dismissed system 3 (Sys3) which had the same model cycle of the up-to-date ECMWF re-analysis product (ERA-Interim). The predictive skill of Sys4 to be employed for malaria monitoring and forecast are also evaluated by aggregating the fields to country level. As a part of the DEWFORA projects, ECMWF is also developing a system for drought monitoring and forecasting over Africa whose main meteorological input is precipitation. Similarly to what is done for the VECTRI model, the skill of seasonal forecasts of precipitation is, in this application, translated into the capability of predicting drought while ERA-Interim is used in monitoring. On a monitoring level, the near real-time update of ERA-Interim could compensate the lack of observations in the regions. However, ERA

  10. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-09-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This study examines the value of improved solar power forecasting for the Independent System Operator-New England system. The results show how 25% solar power penetration reduces net electricity generation costs by 22.9%.

  11. Impact of Improved Solar Forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations in ISO-NE (Presentation)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brancucci Martinez-Anido, C.; Florita, A.; Hodge, B.M.

    2014-11-01

    The diurnal nature of solar power is made uncertain by variable cloud cover and the influence of atmospheric conditions on irradiance scattering processes. Its forecasting has become increasingly important to the unit commitment and dispatch process for efficient scheduling of generators in power system operations. This presentation is an overview of a study that examines the value of improved solar forecasts on Bulk Power System Operations.

  12. Acceleration, Transport, Forecasting and Impact of solar energetic particles in the framework of the 'HESPERIA' HORIZON 2020 project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malandraki, Olga; Klein, Karl-Ludwig; Vainio, Rami; Agueda, Neus; Nunez, Marlon; Heber, Bernd; Buetikofer, Rolf; Sarlanis, Christos; Crosby, Norma

    2017-04-01

    High-energy solar energetic particles (SEPs) emitted from the Sun are a major space weather hazard motivating the development of predictive capabilities. In this work, the current state of knowledge on the origin and forecasting of SEP events will be reviewed. Subsequently, we will present the EU HORIZON2020 HESPERIA (High Energy Solar Particle Events foRecastIng and Analysis) project, its structure, its main scientific objectives and forecasting operational tools, as well as the added value to SEP research both from the observational as well as the SEP modelling perspective. The project addresses through multi-frequency observations and simulations the chain of processes from particle acceleration in the corona, particle transport in the magnetically complex corona and interplanetary space to the detection near 1 AU. Furthermore, publicly available software to invert neutron monitor observations of relativistic SEPs to physical parameters that can be compared with space-borne measurements at lower energies is provided for the first time by HESPERIA. In order to achieve these goals, HESPERIA is exploiting already available large datasets stored in databases such as the neutron monitor database (NMDB) and SEPServer that were developed under EU FP7 projects from 2008 to 2013. Forecasting results of the two novel SEP operational forecasting tools published via the consortium server of 'HESPERIA' will be presented, as well as some scientific key results on the acceleration, transport and impact on Earth of high-energy particles. Acknowledgement: This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 637324.

  13. Adapting a Markov Monte Carlo simulation model for forecasting the number of coronary artery revascularisation procedures in an era of rapidly changing technology and policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mannan, Haider R; Knuiman, Matthew; Hobbs, Michael

    2008-06-25

    Treatments for coronary heart disease (CHD) have evolved rapidly over the last 15 years with considerable change in the number and effectiveness of both medical and surgical treatments. This period has seen the rapid development and uptake of statin drugs and coronary artery revascularization procedures (CARPs) that include Coronary Artery Bypass Graft procedures (CABGs) and Percutaneous Coronary Interventions (PCIs). It is difficult in an era of such rapid change to accurately forecast requirements for treatment services such as CARPs. In a previous paper we have described and outlined the use of a Markov Monte Carlo simulation model for analyzing and predicting the requirements for CARPs for the population of Western Australia (Mannan et al, 2007). In this paper, we expand on the use of this model for forecasting CARPs in Western Australia with a focus on the lack of adequate performance of the (standard) model for forecasting CARPs in a period during the mid 1990s when there were considerable changes to CARP technology and implementation policy and an exploration and demonstration of how the standard model may be adapted to achieve better performance. Selected key CARP event model probabilities are modified based on information relating to changes in the effectiveness of CARPs from clinical trial evidence and an awareness of trends in policy and practice of CARPs. These modified model probabilities and the ones obtained by standard methods are used as inputs in our Markov simulation model. The projected numbers of CARPs in the population of Western Australia over 1995-99 only improve marginally when modifications to model probabilities are made to incorporate an increase in effectiveness of PCI procedures. However, the projected numbers improve substantially when, in addition, further modifications are incorporated that relate to the increased probability of a PCI procedure and the reduced probability of a CABG procedure stemming from changed CARP preference

  14. Adapting a Markov Monte Carlo simulation model for forecasting the number of Coronary Artery Revascularisation Procedures in an era of rapidly changing technology and policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Knuiman Matthew

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Treatments for coronary heart disease (CHD have evolved rapidly over the last 15 years with considerable change in the number and effectiveness of both medical and surgical treatments. This period has seen the rapid development and uptake of statin drugs and coronary artery revascularization procedures (CARPs that include Coronary Artery Bypass Graft procedures (CABGs and Percutaneous Coronary Interventions (PCIs. It is difficult in an era of such rapid change to accurately forecast requirements for treatment services such as CARPs. In a previous paper we have described and outlined the use of a Markov Monte Carlo simulation model for analyzing and predicting the requirements for CARPs for the population of Western Australia (Mannan et al, 2007. In this paper, we expand on the use of this model for forecasting CARPs in Western Australia with a focus on the lack of adequate performance of the (standard model for forecasting CARPs in a period during the mid 1990s when there were considerable changes to CARP technology and implementation policy and an exploration and demonstration of how the standard model may be adapted to achieve better performance. Methods Selected key CARP event model probabilities are modified based on information relating to changes in the effectiveness of CARPs from clinical trial evidence and an awareness of trends in policy and practice of CARPs. These modified model probabilities and the ones obtained by standard methods are used as inputs in our Markov simulation model. Results The projected numbers of CARPs in the population of Western Australia over 1995–99 only improve marginally when modifications to model probabilities are made to incorporate an increase in effectiveness of PCI procedures. However, the projected numbers improve substantially when, in addition, further modifications are incorporated that relate to the increased probability of a PCI procedure and the reduced probability of a CABG

  15. Tracing Impacts of Science and Technology Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, Jeanne

    2003-03-01

    ATP's Mission and Operations. The ATP partners with industry to accelerate the development of innovative technologies for broad national economic benefit. The program's focus is on co-funding collaborative, multi-disciplinary technologies and enabling technology platforms that appear likely to be commercialized, with private sector funding, once the high technical risks are reduced. Industry-led projects are selected for funding in rigorous competitions on the basis of technical and economic merit. Since 1990, ATP has co-funded 642 projects, with 1,329 participants and another 1,300 subcontractors. Measuring to Mission: Overview of ATP's Evaluation Program. ATP's multi-component evaluation strategy provides measures of progress and performance matched to the stage of project evolution; i.e., for the short-term, from the time of project selection and over the course of the R for the mid-term, as commercial applications are pursued, early products reach the market, and dissemination of knowledge created in the R projects occurs; and for the longer-term, as more fully-developed technologies diffuse across multiple products and industries. The approach is applicable to all public S programs and adaptable to private or university projects ranging from basic research to applied industrial R. Examples of Results. ATP's composite performance rating system assesses ATP's completed projects against multi-faceted performance criteria of Knowledge Creation and Dissemination and Commercialization Progress 2-3 years after the end of ATP-funded R. It generates scores ranging from zero to four stars. Results for ATP's first 50 completed projects show that 16are in the bottom group of zero or one stars. 60the middle group. It is understood that not all ATP projects will be successful given the program's emphasis on funding high-risk technology development that the private sector is unwilling and unable to fund alone. Different technologies have different timelines for

  16. Adaptive Opportunistic Cooperative Control Mechanism Based on Combination Forecasting and Multilevel Sensing Technology of Sensors for Mobile Internet of Things

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yong Jin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In mobile Internet of Things, there are many challenges, including sensing technology of sensors, how and when to join cooperative transmission, and how to select the cooperative sensors. To address these problems, we studied the combination forecasting based on the multilevel sensing technology of sensors, building upon which we proposed the adaptive opportunistic cooperative control mechanism based on the threshold values such as activity probability, distance, transmitting power, and number of relay sensors, in consideration of signal to noise ratio and outage probability. More importantly, the relay sensors would do self-test real time in order to judge whether to join the cooperative transmission, for maintaining the optimal cooperative transmission state with high performance. The mathematical analyses results show that the proposed adaptive opportunistic cooperative control approach could perform better in terms of throughput ratio, packet error rate and delay, and energy efficiency, compared with the direct transmission and opportunistic cooperative approaches.

  17. Regional PV power estimation and forecast to mitigate the impact of high photovoltaic penetration on electric grid.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierro, Marco; De Felice, Matteo; Maggioni, Enrico; Moser, David; Perotto, Alessandro; Spada, Francesco; Cornaro, Cristina

    2017-04-01

    The growing photovoltaic generation results in a stochastic variability of the electric demand that could compromise the stability of the grid and increase the amount of energy reserve and the energy imbalance cost. On regional scale, solar power estimation and forecast is becoming essential for Distribution System Operators, Transmission System Operator, energy traders, and aggregators of generation. Indeed the estimation of regional PV power can be used for PV power supervision and real time control of residual load. Mid-term PV power forecast can be employed for transmission scheduling to reduce energy imbalance and related cost of penalties, residual load tracking, trading optimization, secondary energy reserve assessment. In this context, a new upscaling method was developed and used for estimation and mid-term forecast of the photovoltaic distributed generation in a small area in the north of Italy under the control of a local DSO. The method was based on spatial clustering of the PV fleet and neural networks models that input satellite or numerical weather prediction data (centered on cluster centroids) to estimate or predict the regional solar generation. It requires a low computational effort and very few input information should be provided by users. The power estimation model achieved a RMSE of 3% of installed capacity. Intra-day forecast (from 1 to 4 hours) obtained a RMSE of 5% - 7% while the one and two days forecast achieve to a RMSE of 7% and 7.5%. A model to estimate the forecast error and the prediction intervals was also developed. The photovoltaic production in the considered region provided the 6.9% of the electric consumption in 2015. Since the PV penetration is very similar to the one observed at national level (7.9%), this is a good case study to analyse the impact of PV generation on the electric grid and the effects of PV power forecast on transmission scheduling and on secondary reserve estimation. It appears that, already with 7% of PV

  18. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-08-01

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation.

  19. TECHNOLOGICAL IMPERATIVE IMPACT OF GLOBALIZATION ON INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURAL ECONOMY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    А. Кozlova

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The article highlights the factors influencing agricultural production towards global market. The study consists basic fundamental imperatives of globalization on the agricultural sector in international economic relations. The article analyzes the strategic priorities of the international agricultural sector, which includes financial and credit support, legal aspects, processes and integration of organizational structures. Technological imperatives require a large structural and institutional turn in the Ukrainian economy on the basis of current trends in the global economy, scientific and technical potential. There is a growing importance of organizing and conducting international level in the field of technological forecasting. This type of prediction is considered as backbone component in strategic forecasting and economic development programming.

  20. Theoretical basis for expert system to forecast and assess economic impact of anthropogenic pollution on population disease level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.I. Bublyk

    2014-09-01

    of cases is cumulative in nature and appears to the time delay, because the relationship between the results must include the time lag and indicators should be averaged over volumes actions for a specified period of time. Conclusions and directions of futher researches. Thus, the application of fuzzy sets for forecasting the national economy anthropogenic damage, manifested in the calculation of anthropogenic pollution (emissions, effluents, waste and study their impact on public health may have practical use in the development in the management of the national economy according methodological model of research, evaluation and regulation of man-made damage to the national economy. The results obtained will improve the efficiency of state regulation of the phenomenon, provide appropriate allocations for their eradication and compensation. Theoretical and practical aspects regarding the economic evaluation of man-made damage will be used in further research on developing an appropriate fuzzy expert system for predicting the study, collecting and analyzing data on the damage, loss and expense in different sectors of the national economy by sector and identifying technological losses (of man-made damage. The application of the proposed model will form not only an effective system of national economy, but also protection against predictable risks of technogenic emergency situations that may occur in a variety of sectors.

  1. Using Enabling Technologies to Facilitate the Comparison of Satellite Observations with the Model Forecasts for Hurricane Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, P.; Knosp, B.; Hristova-Veleva, S. M.; Niamsuwan, N.; Johnson, M. P.; Shen, T. P. J.; Tanelli, S.; Turk, J.; Vu, Q. A.

    2014-12-01

    Due to their complexity and volume, the satellite data are underutilized in today's hurricane research and operations. To better utilize these data, we developed the JPL Tropical Cyclone Information System (TCIS) - an Interactive Data Portal providing fusion between Near-Real-Time satellite observations and model forecasts to facilitate model evaluation and improvement. We have collected satellite observations and model forecasts in the Atlantic Basin and the East Pacific for the hurricane seasons since 2010 and supported the NASA Airborne Campaigns for Hurricane Study such as the Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) in 2010 and the Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) from 2012 to 2014. To enable the direct inter-comparisons of the satellite observations and the model forecasts, the TCIS was integrated with the NASA Earth Observing System Simulator Suite (NEOS3) to produce synthetic observations (e.g. simulated passive microwave brightness temperatures) from a number of operational hurricane forecast models (HWRF and GFS). An automated process was developed to trigger NEOS3 simulations via web services given the location and time of satellite observations, monitor the progress of the NEOS3 simulations, display the synthetic observation and ingest them into the TCIS database when they are done. In addition, three analysis tools, the joint PDF analysis of the brightness temperatures, ARCHER for finding the storm-center and the storm organization and the Wave Number Analysis tool for storm asymmetry and morphology analysis were integrated into TCIS to provide statistical and structural analysis on both observed and synthetic data. Interactive tools were built in the TCIS visualization system to allow the spatial and temporal selections of the datasets, the invocation of the tools with user specified parameters, and the display and the delivery of the results. In this presentation, we will describe the key enabling technologies behind the design of

  2. The SPoRT-WRF: Evaluating the Impact of NASA Datasets on Convective Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zavodsky, Bradley; Kozlowski, Danielle; Case, Jonathan; Molthan, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) seeks to improve short-term, regional weather forecasts using unique NASA products and capabilities SPoRT has developed a unique, real-time configuration of the NASA Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)WRF (ARW) that integrates all SPoRT modeling research data: (1) 2-km SPoRT Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Composite, (2) 3-km LIS with 1-km Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVFs) (3) 45-km AIRS retrieved profiles. Transitioned this real-time forecast to NOAA's Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) as deterministic model at Experimental Forecast Program (EFP). Feedback from forecasters/participants and internal evaluation of SPoRT-WRF shows a cool, dry bias that appears to suppress convection likely related to methodology for assimilation of AIRS profiles Version 2 of the SPoRT-WRF will premier at the 2012 EFP and include NASA physics, cycling data assimilation methodology, better coverage of precipitation forcing, and new GVFs

  3. AMSR2 all-sky radiance assimilation and its impact on the analysis and forecast of Hurricane Sandy with a limited-area data assimilation system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chun Yang

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available A method to assimilate all-sky radiances from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2 was developed within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model's data assimilation (WRFDA system. The four essential elements are: (1 extending the community radiative transform model's (CRTM interface to include hydrometeor profiles; (2 using total water Qt as the moisture control variable; (3 using a warm-rain physics scheme for partitioning the Qt increment into individual increments of water vapour, cloud liquid water and rain; and (4 adopting a symmetric observation error model for all-sky radiance assimilation.Compared to a benchmark experiment with no AMSR2 data, the impact of assimilating clear-sky or all-sky AMSR2 radiances on the analysis and forecast of Hurricane Sandy (2012 was assessed through analysis/forecast cycling experiments using WRF and WRFDA's three-dimensional variational (3DVAR data assimilation scheme. With more cloud/precipitation-affected data being assimilated around tropical cyclone (TC core areas in the all-sky AMSR2 assimilation experiment, better analyses were obtained in terms of the TC's central sea level pressure (CSLP, warm-core structure and cloud distribution. Substantial (>20 % error reduction in track and CSLP forecasts was achieved from both clear-sky and all-sky AMSR2 assimilation experiments, and this improvement was consistent from the analysis time to 72-h forecasts. Moreover, the all-sky assimilation experiment consistently yielded better track and CSLP forecasts than the clear-sky did for all forecast lead times, due to a better analysis in the TC core areas. Positive forecast impact from assimilating AMSR2 radiances is also seen when verified against the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF analysis and the Stage IV precipitation analysis, with an overall larger positive impact from the all-sky assimilation experiment.

  4. 1. The impact of weather forecast improvements on large scale hydrology: analysing a decade of forecasts of the European Flood Alert System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pappenberger, Florian; Thielen, Jutta; Del Medico, Mauro

    2010-05-01

    The European Flood Alert System (EFAS) provides early flood alerts on a pre-operational basis to National hydrological services. EFAS river discharge forecasts are based on probabilistic techniques, using ensemble system and deterministic numerical weather prediction data. The performance of EFAS is regularly analysed with regard to individual flood events and case studies. Although this analysis provides important insight into the strengths and weaknesses of the forecast system, it lacks statistical and independent measures of its long-term performance. In this paper an assessment of EFAS results based on ECMWF weather forecasts over a period of 10 years is presented. EFAS river discharge forecasts have been rerun every week for a period of 10 years using the weather forecast available at the time. These are evaluated for a total of 500 river gauging stations distributed across Europe.. The selected stations are sufficiently separated in space to avoid autocorrelation of station time series. Also, analysis is performed with a gap of 3 days between each forecast which reduces the temporal correlation of the time series of the same station. The data are analysed with regard to skill, bias and quality of river discharge forecast. The 10 year simulations clearly show that the skill of the river discharge forecasts have undergone an evolution linked to the quality of the operational meteorological forecast. Overall, over the period of 10 years, the skill of the EFAS forecasts has steadily increased. Important hydrological extreme events cannot be clearly identified with the skill score analysis, highlighting the necessity for event based analysis in addition to statistical long-term assessments for a better understanding of the EFAS system and large scale river discharge predictions in general. he predictability is shown to depend on catchment size and geographical location.

  5. Impact of springtime Himalayan-Tibetan Plateau snowpack on the onset of the Indian summer monsoon in coupled seasonal forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senan, Retish; Orsolini, Yvan J.; Weisheimer, Antje; Vitart, Frédéric; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Stockdale, Timothy N.; Dutra, Emanuel; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.; Basang, Droma

    2016-11-01

    The springtime snowpack over the Himalayan-Tibetan Plateau (HTP) region and Eurasia has long been suggested to be an influential factor on the onset of the Indian summer monsoon. To assess the impact of realistic initialization of springtime snow over HTP on the onset of the Indian summer monsoon, we examine a suite of coupled ocean-atmosphere 4-month ensemble reforecasts made at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, using their Seasonal Forecasting System 4. The reforecasts were initialized on 1 April every year for the period 1981-2010. In these seasonal reforecasts, the snow is initialized "realistically" with ERA-Interim/Land Reanalysis. In addition, we carried out an additional set of forecasts, identical in all aspects except that initial conditions for snow-related land surface variables over the HTP region are randomized. We show that high snow depth over HTP influences the meridional tropospheric temperature gradient reversal that marks the monsoon onset. Composite difference based on a normalized HTP snow index reveal that, in high snow years, (1) the onset is delayed by about 8 days, and (2) negative precipitation anomalies and warm surface conditions prevail over India. We show that about half of this delay can be attributed to the realistic initialization of snow over the HTP region. We further demonstrate that high April snow depths over HTP are not uniquely influenced by El Nino-Southern Oscillation, the Indian Ocean Dipole or the North Atlantic Oscillation.

  6. Calibration and validation of earthquake catastrophe models. Case study: Impact Forecasting Earthquake Model for Algeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trendafiloski, G.; Gaspa Rebull, O.; Ewing, C.; Podlaha, A.; Magee, B.

    2012-04-01

    Calibration and validation are crucial steps in the production of the catastrophe models for the insurance industry in order to assure the model's reliability and to quantify its uncertainty. Calibration is needed in all components of model development including hazard and vulnerability. Validation is required to ensure that the losses calculated by the model match those observed in past events and which could happen in future. Impact Forecasting, the catastrophe modelling development centre of excellence within Aon Benfield, has recently launched its earthquake model for Algeria as a part of the earthquake model for the Maghreb region. The earthquake model went through a detailed calibration process including: (1) the seismic intensity attenuation model by use of macroseismic observations and maps from past earthquakes in Algeria; (2) calculation of the country-specific vulnerability modifiers by use of past damage observations in the country. The use of Benouar, 1994 ground motion prediction relationship was proven as the most appropriate for our model. Calculation of the regional vulnerability modifiers for the country led to 10% to 40% larger vulnerability indexes for different building types compared to average European indexes. The country specific damage models also included aggregate damage models for residential, commercial and industrial properties considering the description of the buildings stock given by World Housing Encyclopaedia and the local rebuilding cost factors equal to 10% for damage grade 1, 20% for damage grade 2, 35% for damage grade 3, 75% for damage grade 4 and 100% for damage grade 5. The damage grades comply with the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS-1998). The model was validated by use of "as-if" historical scenario simulations of three past earthquake events in Algeria M6.8 2003 Boumerdes, M7.3 1980 El-Asnam and M7.3 1856 Djidjelli earthquake. The calculated return periods of the losses for client market portfolio align with the

  7. The Impact of Immigrants on Public Finances: A Forecast Analysis for Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Marianne; Schultz-Nielsen, Marie Louise; Tranæs, Torben

    that provide a high social safety net. The analysis is based on a forecast for the entire Danish economy made using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model with overlapping generations. Net contributions to the public purse are presented both as cross-sectional figures for a long time horizon...

  8. Forecasting the combined effects of urbanization and climate change on stream ecosystems: from impacts to management options

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Kären C.; Palmer, Margaret A.; Pizzuto, James E.; Moglen, Glenn E.; Angermeier, Paul L.; Hilderbrand, Robert H.; Dettinger, Mike; Hayhoe, Katharine

    2015-01-01

    Streams collect runoff, heat, and sediment from their watersheds, making them highly vulnerable to anthropogenic disturbances such as urbanization and climate change. Forecasting the effects of these disturbances using process-based models is critical to identifying the form and magnitude of likely impacts. Here, we integrate a new biotic model with four previously developed physical models (downscaled climate projections, stream hydrology, geomorphology, and water temperature) to predict how stream fish growth and reproduction will most probably respond to shifts in climate and urbanization over the next several decades.

  9. Mountain Waves in High Resolution Forecast Models: Automated Diagnostics of Wave Severity and Impact on Surface Winds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Sheridan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available An automated method producing a diagnostic of the severity of lee waves and their impacts on surface winds as represented in output from a high resolution linear numerical model (3D velocities over mountains (3DVOM covering several areas of the U.K. is discussed. Lee waves involving turbulent rotor activity or downslope windstorms represent a hazard to aviation and ground transport, and summary information of this kind is highly valuable as an efficient ‘heads-up’ for forecasters, for automated products or to feed into impact models. Automated diagnosis of lee wave surface effects presents a particular challenge due to the complexity of turbulent zones in the lee of irregular terrain. The method proposed quantifies modelled wind perturbations relative to those that would occur in the absence of lee waves for a given background wind, and diagnoses using it are found to be quite consistent between cases and for different ranges of U.K. hills. A recent upgrade of the operational U.K. limited area model, the U.K. Variable Resolution Model (UKV used for general forecasting at the Met Office means that it now resolves lee waves, and its performance is here demonstrated using comparisons with aircraft- and surface-based observations and the linear model. In the future, automated diagnostics may be adapted to use its output to routinely produce contiguous mesoscale maps of lee wave activity and surface impacts over the whole U.K.

  10. The Impact of In-Service Technology Training Programmes on Technology Teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gumbo, Mishack; Makgato, Moses; Muller, Helene

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to assess the impact the Advanced Certificate in Education (ACE) in-service technology training program has on technology teachers' knowledge and understanding of technology. The training of technology teachers is an initiative toward teachers' professional development within the mathematics, science, and technology sphere…

  11. Assessing the impact of new technology on complex sociotechnical systems

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Oosthuizen, R

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available African Journal of Industrial Engineering Month Year Vol __(_) pp 1-3 ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF NEW TECHNOLOGY ON COMPLEX SOCIOTECHNICAL SYSTEMS R. Oosthuizen & L. Pretorius Department of Engineering and Technology Management University of Pretoria...

  12. Quantifying the Economic and Grid Reliability Impacts of Improved Wind Power Forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Qin; Martinez-Anido, Carlo Brancucci; Wu, Hongyu; Florita, Anthony R.; Hodge, Bri-Mathias

    2016-10-01

    Wind power forecasting is an important tool in power system operations to address variability and uncertainty. Accurately doing so is important to reducing the occurrence and length of curtailment, enhancing market efficiency, and improving the operational reliability of the bulk power system. This research quantifies the value of wind power forecasting improvements in the IEEE 118-bus test system as modified to emulate the generation mixes of Midcontinent, California, and New England independent system operator balancing authority areas. To measure the economic value, a commercially available production cost modeling tool was used to simulate the multi-timescale unit commitment (UC) and economic dispatch process for calculating the cost savings and curtailment reductions. To measure the reliability improvements, an in-house tool, FESTIV, was used to calculate the system's area control error and the North American Electric Reliability Corporation Control Performance Standard 2. The approach allowed scientific reproducibility of results and cross-validation of the tools. A total of 270 scenarios were evaluated to accommodate the variation of three factors: generation mix, wind penetration level, and wind fore-casting improvements. The modified IEEE 118-bus systems utilized 1 year of data at multiple timescales, including the day-ahead UC, 4-hour-ahead UC, and 5-min real-time dispatch. The value of improved wind power forecasting was found to be strongly tied to the conventional generation mix, existence of energy storage devices, and the penetration level of wind energy. The simulation results demonstrate that wind power forecasting brings clear benefits to power system operations.

  13. The impact of digital technologies on teaching and learning

    OpenAIRE

    Banyard, P

    2015-01-01

    This thesis explores the impact of new technologies on learning and teaching and draws on research work carried out over a ten-year period. The thesis looks at the facilitators and barriers to using digital technologies effectively and explores the challenges for educators as they respond to the changes brought about by these digital technologies. It presents eight published works that have investigated the impact of digital technologies and collected data using a range of qualitative and qua...

  14. The impact logic of mobile technology usage on job production

    OpenAIRE

    Deibert, Sina; Heinzl, Armin; Rothlauf, Franz

    2008-01-01

    Research on mobile technologies has received an increasing attention. Most of the existing literature focuses on use of mobile technologies on a managerial level, with technology as a device for information and communication exchange. The impact potential and their corresponding functionalities at the worker level has not yet been analyzed. This study tries to address this gap. It is the key objective to develop a theoretical model how mobile technologies impact business processes in job prod...

  15. Impact of a high density GPS network on the operational forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Faccani

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Global Positioning System Zenith Total Delay (GPS ZTD can provide information about the water vapour in atmosphere. Its assimilation into the analysis used to initialize a model can then improve the weather forecast, giving the right amount of moisture and reducing the model spinup. In the last year, an high density GPS network has been created on the Basilicata region (south of Italy by the Italian Space Agency in the framework of a national project named MAGIC2. MAGIC2 is the Italian follow on of the EC project MAGIC has. Daily operational data assimilation experiments are performed since December 2003. The results show that the assimilation of GPS ZTD improves the forecast especially during the transition from winter to spring even if a no very high model resolution (9km is used.

  16. Interpreting the impact of flood forecasts by combining policy analysis studies and flood defence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Slomp Robert

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Flood forecasting is necessary to save lives and reduce damages. Reducing damages is important to save livelihoods and to reduce the recovery time. Flood alerts should contain expected time of the event, location and extent of the event. A flood alert is not only one message but part of a rehearsed flow of information using multiple canals. First people have to accept the fact that there might be a threat and what the threat is about. People need a reference to understand the situation and be aware of possible measures they can take to assure their own safety and reduce damages. Information to the general public has to be consistent with the information used by emergency services and has to be very clear about consequences and context of possible measures (as shelter in place or preventive evacuation. Emergency services should monitor how the public is responding to adapt their communication en operation during a crisis. Flood warnings and emergency services are often coordinated by different government organisations. This is an extra handicap for having consistent information out on time for people to use. In an information based society, where everyone has twitter, email and a camera, public organisations may have to trust the public more and send out the correct information as it comes in. In the Netherlands Rijkswaterstaat, the National Water Authority and the National Public Works Department, is responsible for or involved in forecasting in case of floods, policy studies on flood risk, policy studies on maintenance, assessment and design of flood defences, elaborating rules and regulations for flood defences, advice on crisis management to the national government and for maintaining the main infrastructure in the Netherlands (high ways and water ways. The Water Management Center in the Netherlands (WMCN has developed a number of models to provide flood forecasts. WMCN is run for and by all managers of flood defences and is hosted by

  17. The Impacts of Satellite Remotely Sensed Winds and Total Precipitable Vapour in WRF Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diandong Ren

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This study assesses the impact assimilating the scatterometer near-surface wind observations and total precipitable water from the SSMI, into WRF on genesis and track forecasting of four tropical cyclones (TCs. These TCs are selected to be representative of different intensity categories and basins. Impact is via a series of data denial experiments that systematically exclude the remote sensed information. Compared with the control case, in which only the final analysis atmospheric variables are used to initialize and provide the lateral boundary conditions, the data assimilation runs performed consistently better, but with very different skill levels for the different TCs. Eliassen-Palm flux analyses are employed. It is confirmed that if a polar orbital satellite footprint passes over the TC’s critical genesis region, the forecast will profit most from assimilating the remotely sensed information. If the critical genesis region lies within an interorbital gap then, regardless of how strong the TC later becomes (e.g., Katrina 2005, the improvement from assimilating near-surface winds and total precipitable water in the model prediction is severely limited. This underpins the need for a synergy of data from different scatterometers/radiometers. Other approaches are suggested to improve the accuracy in the prediction of TC genesis and tracks.

  18. The impact of weather and ocean forecasting on hydrocarbon production and pollution management in the Gulf of Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaiser, Mark J. [Center for Energy Studies, Louisiana State University, Energy Coast and Environment Building, Nicholson Extension Drive, Baton Rouge, LA 70803 (United States)]. E-mail: mkaiser@lsu.edu; Pulsipher, Allan G. [Center for Energy Studies, Louisiana State University, Energy Coast and Environment Building, Nicholson Extension Drive, Baton Rouge, LA 70803 (United States)

    2007-02-15

    Over the past 2 years, the vulnerability of offshore production in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) has been brought to light by extensive damage to oil and gas facilities and pipelines resulting from Hurricanes Ivan, Katrina, and Rita. The occurrences of extreme weather regularly force operators to shut-down production, cease drilling and construction activities, and evacuate personnel. Loop currents and eddies can also impact offshore operations and delay installation and drilling activities and reduce the effectiveness of oil spill response strategies. The purpose of this paper is to describe how weather and ocean forecasting impact production activities and pollution management in the GOM. Physical outcome and decision models in support of production and development activities and oil spill response management are presented, and the expected economic benefits that may result from the implementation of an integrated ocean observation network in the region are summarized. Improved ocean observation systems are expected to reduce the uncertainty of forecasting and to enhance the value of ocean/weather information throughout the Gulf region. The source of benefits and the size of activity from which improved ocean observation benefits may be derived are estimated for energy development and production activities and oil spill response management.

  19. Technology Alignment and Portfolio Prioritization (TAPP): Advanced Methods in Strategic Analysis, Technology Forecasting and Long Term Planning for Human Exploration and Operations, Advanced Exploration Systems and Advanced Concepts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funaro, Gregory V.; Alexander, Reginald A.

    2015-01-01

    Prioritization by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), and other multi­-criteria decision-making methods. These methods can be labor-intensive, often contain cognitive or parochial bias, and do not consider the competing prioritization between mission architectures. Strategic Decision-Making (SDM) processes cannot be properly understood unless the context of the technology is understood. This makes assessing technological change particularly challenging due to the relationships "between incumbent technology and the incumbent (innovation) system in relation to the emerging technology and the emerging innovation system." The central idea in technology dynamics is to consider all activities that contribute to the development, diffusion, and use of innovations as system functions. Bergek defines system functions within a TIS to address what is actually happening and has a direct influence on the ultimate performance of the system and technology development. ACO uses similar metrics and is expanding these metrics to account for the structure and context of the technology. At NASA technology and strategy is strongly interrelated. NASA's Strategic Space Technology Investment Plan (SSTIP) prioritizes those technologies essential to the pursuit of NASA's missions and national interests. The SSTIP is strongly coupled with NASA's Technology Roadmaps to provide investment guidance during the next four years, within a twenty-year horizon. This paper discusses the methods ACO is currently developing to better perform technology assessments while taking into consideration Strategic Alignment, Technology Forecasting, and Long Term Planning.

  20. Initial multi-national study of future energy systems and impacts of some evolving technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1977-03-25

    Participants from thirteen member nations of the International Energy Agency and the Commission of European Communities have been conducting cooperative energy systems analyses, the goal of which is to evaluate the possible impacts of new and conservation technologies. Such studies are intended to provide analytical bases to aid future decisions on cooperative research and development projects. In the initial studies, a quantitative description of the 1974 energy system has been prepared for each participating nation. The nations accounted for approximately half of the world energy consumption in 1974. They imported more than 30 percent of their primary energy requirements from other nations of the world. Oil and natural gas supplied almost /sup 3///sub 4/ of the energy. Reference projections were made for the years 1985 and 2000 to provide base cases for studies of the impacts of new and conservation technologies. Although these projections are not intended to be forecasts, taken together they indicate an increasing gap between the demand for energy and foreseeable domestic supplies, thus underscoring the urgency for the vigorous introduction of new energy technologies as well as the need for strong efforts in energy conservation. Some preliminary evaluations of selected technologies were made as a function of current development plans. None of these technologies taken individually appear capable of balancing the demand-supply equation.

  1. Development of technology for coal thermal power generation. Present state and future forecast

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoshimura, Uichiro

    1987-01-01

    Summary of the 1987 coal technology development projects supported by the Agency of Natural Resources and Energy, and the related data such as positioning of coal thermal power plants, application technoloy system, etc. are presented. The coal power generation technology system projects scheduled for 1980 - 1990 were introduced. For the environmental protection, air polution constitutes a big problem, and technologies of desulfurization, denitration, etc. have been developed. In the field of application technology, liquefaction of coal, utilization of low-grade coals, coal gasification, application to combined cycle power generation, etc. can be quoted. The agency is supporting development of various application technologies as the 1987 projects, among them are: Development of entrained bed coal gasification power plant, Verification experiments of technologies for dry desulfurization for coal thermal power plant, Verification tests for operational improvement of coal thermal power plant, Study on the possibility of introducing large scale fluidized bed boiler to coal thermal power generation, Investigation of new power generation systems, Development of high performance coal thermal power technology, and Development of optimum control system for large scale fluidized bed boiler. (2 tabs, 4 photos)

  2. Analysis of Impact of 3D Printing Technology on Traditional Manufacturing Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Niyan; Chen, Qi; Liao, Linzhi; Wang, Xin

    With quiet rise of 3D printing technology in automobile, aerospace, industry, medical treatment and other fields, many insiders hold different opinions on its development. This paper objectively analyzes impact of 3D printing technology on mold making technology and puts forward the idea of fusion and complementation of 3D printing technology and mold making technology through comparing advantages and disadvantages of 3D printing mold and traditional mold making technology.

  3. A Novel Method for Technology Forecasting and Developing R&D Strategy of Building Integrated Photovoltaic Technology Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Jing Chiu

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Because of global warming, renewable energy technologies have become more essential currently, with solar energy technology advancing worldwide. Therefore, interdisciplinary integration is an important trend, and building-integrated photovoltaic (BIPV is an emerging technology involving the photovoltaic and building fields. The purpose of this study is to understand the technology evolution of BIPV and to determine the R&D planning direction. This paper proposes a hybrid approach to explore the life cycle of BIPV technology and develop the R&D strategy of related industries. The proposed approach comprises the following submodules. First, patent analysis is employed to transform patent documents into structured data. Second, the logistic growth model is used to explore the life cycle of BIPV technology. Third, a patent matrix map analysis is used to develop the R&D strategy of the BIPV industry. Through the analysis by the logistic model, the BIPV technology is transformed from the emerging stage to the growth stage of a long-term life cycle. The other important result is created by the three-dimensional matrix for R&D strategies in this paper.

  4. The Impact of a Technology Integration Academy on Instructional Technology Integration in a Texas School District

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkholder, Karla

    2013-01-01

    This applied dissertation was designed to determine the impact of a technology integration professional development on high school teachers' technology integration and students' use of computers in core content areas. The District invested in technology for all classrooms, as well as 1:1 technology for all secondary students with an expectation…

  5. Forecasting Innovation Pathways (FIP) for new and emerging science and technologies

    OpenAIRE

    Robinson, Douglas; Huang, Lu; Guo, Yan; Porter, Alan L

    2013-01-01

    International audience; "New" and "Emerging Science" and "Technologies" ("NESTs") have tremendous innovation potential. However this must be weighed against enormous uncertainties caused by many unknowns. The authors of this paper offer a framework to analyze NESTs to help ascertain likely innovation pathways.We have devised a 10-step framework based on extensive Future-oriented Technology Analyses ("FTA") experience, enriched by in-depth case analyses. In the paper, we describe our analytica...

  6. Forecasting Innovation Pathways (FIP) for new and emerging science and technologies

    OpenAIRE

    Robinson, Douglas,; Huang, Lu; Guo, Yan; Porter, Alan L.

    2013-01-01

    International audience; "New" and "Emerging Science" and "Technologies" ("NESTs") have tremendous innovation potential. However this must be weighed against enormous uncertainties caused by many unknowns. The authors of this paper offer a framework to analyze NESTs to help ascertain likely innovation pathways.We have devised a 10-step framework based on extensive Future-oriented Technology Analyses ("FTA") experience, enriched by in-depth case analyses. In the paper, we describe our analytica...

  7. The impact of new technologies on distance learning students

    OpenAIRE

    Keegan, Desmond

    2008-01-01

    This is a European Commission Leonardo da Vinci Reference Material project on the impact of new technology on distance learning students. It is known that all the Ministries of Education of the 27 European Union countries pay millions of Euros annually in the provision of educational technology for their schools, colleges and universities. A review of the literature of the impact of technology, however, showed that the research in this field was unacceptably fragile. What research there was f...

  8. Is it growing exponentially fast? -- Impact of assuming exponential growth for characterizing and forecasting epidemics with initial near-exponential growth dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowell, Gerardo; Viboud, Cécile

    2016-10-01

    The increasing use of mathematical models for epidemic forecasting has highlighted the importance of designing models that capture the baseline transmission characteristics in order to generate reliable epidemic forecasts. Improved models for epidemic forecasting could be achieved by identifying signature features of epidemic growth, which could inform the design of models of disease spread and reveal important characteristics of the transmission process. In particular, it is often taken for granted that the early growth phase of different growth processes in nature follow early exponential growth dynamics. In the context of infectious disease spread, this assumption is often convenient to describe a transmission process with mass action kinetics using differential equations and generate analytic expressions and estimates of the reproduction number. In this article, we carry out a simulation study to illustrate the impact of incorrectly assuming an exponential-growth model to characterize the early phase (e.g., 3-5 disease generation intervals) of an infectious disease outbreak that follows near-exponential growth dynamics. Specifically, we assess the impact on: 1) goodness of fit, 2) bias on the growth parameter, and 3) the impact on short-term epidemic forecasts. Designing transmission models and statistical approaches that more flexibly capture the profile of epidemic growth could lead to enhanced model fit, improved estimates of key transmission parameters, and more realistic epidemic forecasts.

  9. High impact technologies for natural products screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koehn, Frank E

    2008-01-01

    consists of crude or partially fractionated mixtures, the library contents should be profiled to identify the known components present - a process known as dereplication. The use of mass spectrometry and HPLC-mass spectrometry together with spectral databases is a powerful tool in the chemometric profiling of bio-sources for natural product production. High throughput, high sensitivity flow NMR is an emerging tool in this area as well. Whether by cell based or biomolecular target based assays, screening of natural product extract libraries continues to furnish novel lead molecules for further drug development, despite challenges in the analysis and prioritization of natural products hits. Spectroscopic techniques are now being used to directly screen natural product and synthetic libraries. Mass spectrometry in the form of methods such as ESI-ICRFTMS, and FACS-MS as well as NMR methods such as SAR by NMR and STD-NMR have been utilized to effectively screen molecular libraries. Overall, emerging advances in mass spectrometry, NMR and other technologies are making it possible to overcome the challenges encountered in screening natural products libraries in today's drug discovery environment. As we apply these technologies and develop them even further, we can look forward to increased impact of natural products in the HTS based drug discovery.

  10. Impact of information technology on business communication

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zvonimir Jurković

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Business communication is a very important part of any business, organization and management system, while information technology merges microelectronics, computers, telecommunications and software, thus facilitating the input, processing and distribution of information. Information technology is one of the key generic technologies because it has entered all spheres of economic, scientific, social and private life and has brought with it radical changes. Different information technologies and communication are closely linked. The new business communication using Web 2.0 technology defines active factors in a completely new business communication environment. For the new approach to business communication to be effective, a good knowledge of various communication technologies is required. The aim of this paper is to present contemporary business communication and demonstrate how much information technology affects business communication using a practical example (private business.

  11. Logical Design of a Decision Support System to Forecast Technology, Prices and Costs for the National Communications System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1984-09-01

    digital services upon ISDN technology growth can be modeled. The DSS is executed with the impacts as subjective values and are defined as desirable...communications media cost =I’ 2. Number of ISDN trained personnel = ’PI 3. Ccmpetiticn to provide digital services = ’C’ 4. Growth rate of ISDN

  12. Forecasting climate change impacts on the distribution of wetland habitat in the Midwestern United states.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garris, Heath W; Mitchell, Randall J; Fraser, Lauchlan H; Barrett, Linda R

    2015-02-01

    Shifting precipitation patterns brought on by climate change threaten to alter the future distribution of wetlands. We developed a set of models to understand the role climate plays in determining wetland formation on a landscape scale and to forecast changes in wetland distribution for the Midwestern United States. These models combined 35 climate variables with 21 geographic and anthropogenic factors thought to encapsulate other major drivers of wetland distribution for the Midwest. All models successfully recreated a majority of the variation in current wetland area within the Midwest, and showed that wetland area was significantly associated with climate, even when controlling for landscape context. Inferential (linear) models identified a consistent negative association between wetland area and isothermality. This is likely the result of regular inundation in areas where precipitation accumulates as snow, then melts faster than drainage capacity. Moisture index seasonality was identified as a key factor distinguishing between emergent and forested wetland types, where forested wetland area at the landscape scale is associated with a greater seasonal variation in water table depth. Forecasting models (neural networks) predicted an increase in potential wetland area in the coming century, with areas conducive to forested wetland formation expanding more rapidly than areas conducive to emergent wetlands. Local cluster analyses identified Iowa and Northeastern Missouri as areas of anticipated wetland expansion, indicating both a risk to crop production within the Midwest Corn Belt and an opportunity for wetland conservation, while Northern Minnesota and Michigan are potentially at risk of wetland losses under a future climate.

  13. Impact of coastal radar observability on the forecast of the track and rainfall of Typhoon Morakot (2009) using WRF-based ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, Jian; Meng, Zhiyong; Yu, Cheng-Ku; Cheng, Lin-Wen

    2017-01-01

    This study explored the impact of coastal radar observability on the forecast of the track and rainfall of Typhoon Morakot (2009) using a WRF-based ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation (DA) system. The results showed that the performance of radar EnKF DA was quite sensitive to the number of radars being assimilated and the DA timing relative to the landfall of the tropical cyclone (TC). It was found that assimilating radial velocity (Vr) data from all the four operational radars during the 6 h immediately before TC landfall was quite important for the track and rainfall forecasts after the TC made landfall. The TC track forecast error could be decreased by about 43% and the 24-h rainfall forecast skill could be almost tripled. Assimilating Vr data from a single radar outperformed the experiment without DA, though with less improvement compared to the multiple-radar DA experiment. Different forecast performances were obtained by assimilating different radars, which was closely related to the first-time wind analysis increment, the location of moisture transport, the quasi-stationary rainband, and the local convergence line. However, only assimilating Vr data when the TC was farther away from making landfall might worsen TC track and rainfall forecasts. Besides, this work also demonstrated that Vr data from multiple radars, instead of a single radar, should be used for verification to obtain a more reliable assessment of the EnKF performance.

  14. Are Lipases Still Important Biocatalysts? A Study of Scientific Publications and Patents for Technological Forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daiha, Karina de Godoy; Angeli, Renata; de Oliveira, Sabrina Dias; Almeida, Rodrigo Volcan

    2015-01-01

    The great potential of lipases is known since 1930 when the work of J. B. S. Haldane was published. After eighty-five years of studies and developments, are lipases still important biocatalysts? For answering this question the present work investigated the technological development of four important industrial sectors where lipases are applied: production of detergent formulations; organic synthesis, focusing on kinetic resolution, production of biodiesel, and production of food and feed products. The analysis was made based on research publications and patent applications, working as scientific and technological indicators, respectively. Their evolution, interaction, the major players of each sector and the main subject matters disclosed in patent documents were discussed. Applying the concept of technology life cycle, S-curves were built by plotting cumulative patent data over time to monitor the attractiveness of each technology for investment. The results lead to a conclusion that the use of lipases as biocatalysts is still a relevant topic for the industrial sector, but developments are still needed for lipase biocatalysis to reach its full potential, which are expected to be achieved within the third, and present, wave of biocatalysis.

  15. Are Lipases Still Important Biocatalysts? A Study of Scientific Publications and Patents for Technological Forecasting.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karina de Godoy Daiha

    Full Text Available The great potential of lipases is known since 1930 when the work of J. B. S. Haldane was published. After eighty-five years of studies and developments, are lipases still important biocatalysts? For answering this question the present work investigated the technological development of four important industrial sectors where lipases are applied: production of detergent formulations; organic synthesis, focusing on kinetic resolution, production of biodiesel, and production of food and feed products. The analysis was made based on research publications and patent applications, working as scientific and technological indicators, respectively. Their evolution, interaction, the major players of each sector and the main subject matters disclosed in patent documents were discussed. Applying the concept of technology life cycle, S-curves were built by plotting cumulative patent data over time to monitor the attractiveness of each technology for investment. The results lead to a conclusion that the use of lipases as biocatalysts is still a relevant topic for the industrial sector, but developments are still needed for lipase biocatalysis to reach its full potential, which are expected to be achieved within the third, and present, wave of biocatalysis.

  16. Space power development impact on technology requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassidy, J. F.; Fitzgerald, T. J.; Gilje, R. I.; Gordon, J. D.

    1986-01-01

    The paper is concerned with the selection of a specific spacecraft power technology and the identification of technology development to meet system requirements. Requirements which influence the selection of a given technology include the power level required, whether the load is constant or transient in nature, and in the case of transient loads, the time required to recover the power, and overall system safety. Various power technologies, such as solar voltaic power, solar dynamic power, nuclear power systems, and electrochemical energy storage, are briefly described.

  17. Impact of multi-resolution analysis of artificial intelligence models inputs on multi-step ahead river flow forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badrzadeh, Honey; Sarukkalige, Ranjan; Jayawardena, A. W.

    2013-12-01

    Discrete wavelet transform was applied to decomposed ANN and ANFIS inputs.Novel approach of WNF with subtractive clustering applied for flow forecasting.Forecasting was performed in 1-5 step ahead, using multi-variate inputs.Forecasting accuracy of peak values and longer lead-time significantly improved.

  18. Standards And Their Impact On Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Endelman, Lincoln L.

    1990-01-01

    The needs for standards and the processes to provide them are very complex. Standardization is dependent upon voluntary and nonvoluntary agreement among individuals, companies, various organizations, and countries around the world. The agreements on standards, which sometimes take five to ten years, are hindered by monetary considerations, relinquishment of patent rights, disagreement among nations on dimensions in metric or the English system, and professional jealousy among some individuals. Standards, Standards, Standards - what a boring and uninteresting topic. Why did I ever agree to speak to you about something that most people take for granted and don't even bother to pay much attention to until they encounter a situation where a nonstandard item creates a problem. Have any of you ever bought a roll of 35mm film for your foreign made camera and found out that it needs 32mm film? That could have happened to you in the late nineteenth or early twentieth century. Yes, we know that, you say, but that's not a problem anymore. Well, how about when you try to put a Beta cassette into your VCR that uses VHS cassettes? Have you tried to fit a Minolta lens onto a Nikon camera? But enough, you all have the idea. Standards were developed to make interchangeable components compatible with other equipment, no matter who made it or where it was made. Some companies and countries deliberately made things different to protect their inventions and profit by their uniqueness. More and more attempts are being made to reduce the international differences in technology and establish a common ground for trade and commerce. The European Common Market is in the process of eliminating many of the barriers to free exchange of goods, services, and even moving to a universal currency. This all sounds good for Europe, but what about the USA and the rest of the world. The United States has fought the change to the metric system for almost two hundred years. Our electrical system and the

  19. Educational Technologies: Impact on Learning and Frustration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hove, M. Christina; Corcoran, Kevin J.

    2008-01-01

    Educators are increasingly using educational technologies at the postsecondary level although little research has investigated the effects of such technologies on learning. Our research explored the effects of traditional lecture, slide-show-supplemented lecture, and virtual learning environment (VLE) on learning and frustration among college…

  20. The Impact of Technology on Hispanic Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelsey, Cheryl; Mata-Claflin, Guadalupe; Holland, Glenda; Castillo, Jose Eduardo

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of the study was to determine if elementary teachers use technology as a tool to enhance classroom strategies for improving student achievement among Hispanic students. The following research questions were utilized: a) Are computers available for classroom teachers and Hispanic students? b) Has the available technology contributed to…

  1. Knowledge/Data Mining, Assessment and Forecasting of Ground Military Vehicle Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-11

    or . UNCLASSIFIED 4 National Automotive Center “Shifted- Gears Organization”NAC-TARDECs Technology Thrust Areas TARDEC Chief Scientist Director...Displacement      12. Uniform Potential • To reduce load to lift / lower ‐ Pulleys • Rollers on luggage • Rollerblading to work UNCLASSIFIED 19 Some

  2. Flood Foresight: A near-real time flood monitoring and forecasting tool for rapid and predictive flood impact assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Revilla-Romero, Beatriz; Shelton, Kay; Wood, Elizabeth; Berry, Robert; Bevington, John; Hankin, Barry; Lewis, Gavin; Gubbin, Andrew; Griffiths, Samuel; Barnard, Paul; Pinnell, Marc; Huyck, Charles

    2017-04-01

    The hours and days immediately after a major flood event are often chaotic and confusing, with first responders rushing to mobilise emergency responders, provide alleviation assistance and assess loss to assets of interest (e.g., population, buildings or utilities). Preparations in advance of a forthcoming event are becoming increasingly important; early warning systems have been demonstrated to be useful tools for decision markers. The extent of damage, human casualties and economic loss estimates can vary greatly during an event, and the timely availability of an accurate flood extent allows emergency response and resources to be optimised, reduces impacts, and helps prioritise recovery. In the insurance sector, for example, insurers are under pressure to respond in a proactive manner to claims rather than waiting for policyholders to report losses. Even though there is a great demand for flood inundation extents and severity information in different sectors, generating flood footprints for large areas from hydraulic models in real time remains a challenge. While such footprints can be produced in real time using remote sensing, weather conditions and sensor availability limit their ability to capture every single flood event across the globe. In this session, we will present Flood Foresight (www.floodforesight.com), an operational tool developed to meet the universal requirement for rapid geographic information, before, during and after major riverine flood events. The tool provides spatial data with which users can measure their current or predicted impact from an event - at building, basin, national or continental scales. Within Flood Foresight, the Screening component uses global rainfall predictions to provide a regional- to continental-scale view of heavy rainfall events up to a week in advance, alerting the user to potentially hazardous situations relevant to them. The Forecasting component enhances the predictive suite of tools by providing a local

  3. Regional hydrological models for distributed flash-floods forecasting: towards an estimation of potential impacts and damages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Bihan, Guillaume; Payrastre, Olivier; Gaume, Eric; Pons, Frederic; Moncoulon, David

    2016-04-01

    Hydrometeorological forecasting is an essential component of real-time flood management. The information it provides is of great help for crisis managers to anticipate the inundations and the associated risks. In the particular case of flash-floods, which may affect a large amount of small watersheds spread over the territory (up to 300 000 km of waterways considering a drained area of 5 km² minimum in France), appropriate flood forecasting systems are still under development. In France, highly distributed hydrological models have been implemented, enabling a real-time assessment of the potential intensity of flash-floods from the records of weather radars: AIGA-hydro system (Lavabre et al., 2005; Javelle et al., 2014), PreDiFlood project (Naulin et al., 2013). The approach presented here aims to go one step further by offering a direct assessment of the potential impacts of the simulated floods on inhabited areas. This approach is based on an a priori analysis of the study area in order (1) to evaluate with a simplified hydraulic approach (DTM treatment) the potentially flooded areas for different discharge levels, and (2) to identify the associated buildings and/or population at risk from geographic databases. This preliminary analysis enables to build an impact model (discharge-impact curve) on each river reach, which is then used to directly estimate the potentially affected assets based on a distributed rainfall runoff model. The overall principle of this approach was already presented at the 8th Hymex workshop. Therefore, the presentation will be here focused on the first validation results in terms of (1) accuracy of flooded areas simulated from DTM treatments, and (2) relevance of estimated impacts. The inundated areas simulated were compared to the European Directive cartography results (where available), showing an overall good correspondence in a large majority of cases, but also very significant errors for approximatively 10% of the river reaches

  4. The Impact on Vocational Training of Studies. Analysing and Forecasting Trends in Occupations. Case Studies in Germany, the Netherlands and Denmark. CEDEFOP Document.

    Science.gov (United States)

    European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training, Thessaloniki (Greece).

    This report describes a study to verify the impact on vocational training policies of research and development work carried out in the field of anticipation of educational and training needs, labor market forecasts, and skills analysis. Section I provides background. Section II presents the framework of the study. Section III includes the full…

  5. Impact and promise of NASA aeropropulsion technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saunders, Neal T.; Bowditch, David N.

    1990-01-01

    The aeropropulsion industry in the U.S. has established an enviable record of leading the world in aeropropulsion for commercial and military aircraft. NASA's aeropropulsion program (primarily conducted through the Lewis Research Center) has significantly contributed to that success through research and technology advances and technology demonstration. Some past NASA contributions to engines in current aircraft are reviewed, and technologies emerging from current research programs for the aircraft of the 1990's are described. Finally, current program thrusts toward improving propulsion systems in the 2000's for subsonic commercial aircraft and higher speed aircraft such as the High-Speed Civil Transport and the National Aerospace Plane are discussed.

  6. Commentary: The Future Impact of Science and Technology on Medicine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Lewis

    1974-01-01

    Examines past achievements and discusses the future impact that applied science and medical technology will have in combating disease and illness. Suggests that long-range planning and organization on a national scale are essential. (JR)

  7. Determinants And Impacts Of Poultry Production Technologies On ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Determinants And Impacts Of Poultry Production Technologies On Productivity Of ... The findings showed that age, rearing experience, Total Variable cost, ... Intensification of farmer education and training (extension) and family planning ...

  8. Evaluation of Enhanced High Resolution MODIS/AMSR-E SSTs and the Impact on Regional Weather Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiferl, Luke D.; Fuell, Kevin K.; Case, Jonathan L.; Jedlovec, Gary J.

    2010-01-01

    , the discernable impacts on the WRF model were still somewhat limited. This paper explores several factors that may have contributed to this result. First, the original methodology to initialize the model used the most recent SST composite available in a hypothetical real ]time configuration, often matching the forecast initial time with an SST field that was 5-8 hours offset. To minimize the differences that result from the diurnal variations in SST, the previous day fs SST composite is incorporated at a time closest to the model initialization hour (e.g. 1600 UTC composite at 1500 UTC model initialization). Second, the diurnal change seen in the MODIS SST composites was not represented by the WRF model in previous simulations, since the SSTs were held constant throughout the model integration. To address this issue, we explore the use of a water skin-temperature diurnal cycle prediction capability within v3.1 of the WRF model to better represent fluctuations in marine surface forcing. Finally, the verification of the WRF model is limited to very few over-water sites, many of which are located near the coastlines. In order to measure the open ocean improvements from the AMSR-E, we could use an independent 2-dimensional, satellite-derived data set to validate the forecast model by applying an object-based verification method. Such a validation technique could aid in better understanding the benefits of the mesoscale SST spatial structure to regional models applications.

  9. Forecasting the Success of Governmental

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Konstantinos NIKOLOPOULOS

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Governments often use budget so as to provide incentives for citizens to adopt new policies, especially when these are promoting eco-friendly technologies e.g. to subsidise the price of a hybrid-car. The public money spent on each policy, is considered to be value-for–money only if many citizens do adopt the proposed policy. This is also known as the ‘cost-effectiveness’ or the ‘economic success’ of a new policy. The latter should not be confused with the ‘economic impact’ of the new policy, as this is usually referred to the respective macro/micro socio-economic impact. This study reports on a experiment with semi-experts using Structured Analogies (SA forecasting the success of a new policy promoting replacing old household air conditioners with energy saving units under a new environment and technology initiative implemented by a European government. The findings shows evidence that Structured Analogies (SA is a useful forecasting tool for policy making, however all methods predicted results that were considerably off the mark, indicating the difficulty of the forecasting task under examination.

  10. The Forecasting of 3G Market in India Based on Revised Technology Acceptance Model

    CERN Document Server

    Singh, Sudha; Singh, M K; Singh, Sujeet Kumar; 10.5121/ijngn.2010.2206

    2010-01-01

    3G, processor of 2G services, is a family of standards for mobile telecommunications defined by the International Telecommunication Union [1]. 3G services include wide-area wireless voice telephone, video calls, and wireless data, all in a mobile environment. It allows simultaneous use of speech and data services and higher data rates.3G is defined to facilitate growth, increased bandwidth and support more diverse applications. The focus of this study is to examine the factors affecting the adoption of 3G services among Indian people. The study adopts the revised Technology Acceptance Model by adding five antecedents-perceived risks, cost of adoption, perceived service quality, subjective norms, and perceived lack of knowledge. Data have collected from more than 400 school/college/Institution students & employees of various Government/Private sectors using interviews & various convenience sampling procedures and analyzed using MS excel and MATLAB. Result shows that perceived usefulness has the most si...

  11. Economic impact of applying advanced technologies to transport airplanes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carline, A. J. K.

    1972-01-01

    Various technologies have been studied which could have application to the design of future transport airplanes. These technologies include the use of supercritical aerodynamics, composite materials, and active control systems, together with advanced engine designs that provide lower noise and pollutant levels. The economic impact of each technology is shown for a typical fleet of 195-passenger, transcontinental commercial transports cruising at both 0.9M and 0.98M. Comparisons are made with conventional transports cruising at 0.82M. Effects of combining the technologies are discussed. An R & D program aimed at bringing the technologies to fruition is outlined.

  12. Climate impacts of energy technologies depend on emissions timing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Morgan R.; Trancik, Jessika E.

    2014-05-01

    Energy technologies emit greenhouse gases with differing radiative efficiencies and atmospheric lifetimes. Standard practice for evaluating technologies, which uses the global warming potential (GWP) to compare the integrated radiative forcing of emitted gases over a fixed time horizon, does not acknowledge the importance of a changing background climate relative to climate change mitigation targets. Here we demonstrate that the GWP misvalues the impact of CH4-emitting technologies as mid-century approaches, and we propose a new class of metrics to evaluate technologies based on their time of use. The instantaneous climate impact (ICI) compares gases in an expected radiative forcing stabilization year, and the cumulative climate impact (CCI) compares their time-integrated radiative forcing up to a stabilization year. Using these dynamic metrics, we quantify the climate impacts of technologies and show that high-CH4-emitting energy sources become less advantageous over time. The impact of natural gas for transportation, with CH4 leakage, exceeds that of gasoline within 1-2 decades for a commonly cited 3 W m-2 stabilization target. The impact of algae biodiesel overtakes that of corn ethanol within 2-3 decades, where algae co-products are used to produce biogas and corn co-products are used for animal feed. The proposed metrics capture the changing importance of CH4 emissions as a climate threshold is approached, thereby addressing a major shortcoming of the GWP for technology evaluation.

  13. Impacts of AMSU-A/MHS and IASI data assimilation on temperature and humidity forecasts with GSI/WRF over the Western United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Bao

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Using NOAA's Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI data assimilation system and NCAR's Advanced Research WRF (ARW-WRF regional model, six experiments are designed by (1 control experiment (CTRL and five data assimilation (DA experiments with different data sets including (2 conventional data only (CON, (3 microwave data (AMSU-A + MHS only (MW, (4 infrared data (IASI only (IR, (5 combination of microwave and infrared data (MWIR, (6 combination of conventional, microwave and infrared observation data (ALL. One month experiments in July 2012 and impacts of the DA on temperature and moisture forecasts at the surface and four vertical layers, which over the western United States have been investigated. The four layers include lower troposphere (LT from 800 to 1000 hPa}, middle troposphere (MT from 400 to 800 hPa, upper troposphere (UT from 200 to 400 hPa and lower stratosphere (LS from 50 to 200 hPa. The results show that the regional GSI/WRF system is underestimating the observed temperature in the LT and overestimating in the UT and LS. The MW DA reduced the forecast bias from the MT to the LS within 30 h forecasts, and the CON DA kept a smaller forecast bias in the LT for 2-day forecasts. The largest RMS error is observed in the LT and at the surface (SFC. Compared to the CTRL, the MW DA made the most positive contribution in the UT and LS, and the CON DA mainly improved the temperature forecasts at the SFC. However, the IR DA made a negative contribution in the LT. Most of the observed humidity in the different vertical layers is overestimated in the humidity forecasts except in the UT. The smallest bias in the humidity forecast occurred at the SFC and UT. The DA experiments apparently reduced the bias from the LT to UT, especially for the IR DA experiment, but the RMS errors are not reduced in the humidity forecasts. Compared to the CTRL, the IR DA experiment has a larger RMS error in the moisture forecast although the smallest bias is found

  14. New technology in everyday life - social processes and environmental impact

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Røpke, Inge

    2001-01-01

    In the environmental debate it is increasingly acknowledged that our way of life has profound environmental consequences. Therefore, it becomes ever more important to focus on and to understand how everyday life is formed and how it changes over time. Changing technology constitutes an important...... aspect both of changes in everyday life and of the environmental impact of everyday-life activities. Technological change is often seen as an important part of the solutions to environmental problems, however, when technological change is seen from the perspective of everyday life, this image becomes...... more complex. In this paper technological changes are explored from the perspective of consumption and everyday life, and it is argued that environmental impacts arise through the interplay of technology, consumption and everyday life. Firstly, because technological renewals form integral parts...

  15. Instruments for Assessing the Impact of Technology in Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christensen, Rhonda; Knezek, Gerald

    2002-01-01

    Ten years of instrument development are summarized and placed within a framework for assessing the impact of technology in education. Seven well-validated instruments spanning the areas of attitudes, beliefs, skills, competencies, and technology integration proficiencies are presented, along with data analysis examples. These instruments are…

  16. The Impact of Generational Status on Instructors' Reported Technology Usage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skidmore, Susan Troncoso; Zientek, Linda Reichwein; Saxon, D. Patrick; Edmonson, Stacey L.

    2014-01-01

    Although the majority of colleges and universities are equipped with the latest instructional technologies, an appreciable integration of technology has not been observed in instructional practices (Flavin, 2013; Garrison & Akyol, 2009; Salinas, 2008). The purpose of this research is to understand the impact that generational differences can…

  17. Student pharmacists' use and perceived impact of educational technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stolte, Scott K; Richard, Craig; Rahman, Ateequr; Kidd, Robert S

    2011-06-10

    To assess the frequency of use by and perceived impact of various educational technologies on student pharmacists. Data were obtained using a validated, Web-based survey instrument designed to evaluate the frequency of use and impact on learning of various technologies used in educating first-, second-, and third-year student pharmacists. Basic demographic data also were collected and analyzed. The majority (89.4%) of the 179 respondents were comfortable with the technology used in the academic program. The most frequently used technologies for educational purposes were in class electronic presentations, course materials posted on the school Web site, and e-mail. The technologies cited as having the most beneficial impact on learning were course materials posted on the Web site and in-class electronic presentations, and those cited as most detrimental were video-teleconferencing and online testing. Compared to the course textbook, students reported more frequent use of technologies such as electronic course materials, presentations, digital lecture recordings, e-mail, and hand-held devices. Because students' opinions of educational technologies varied, colleges and schools should incorporate educational technologies that students frequently use and that positively impact learning.

  18. Educational Technologies and Mathematics: Signature Pedagogies and Learner Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Passey, Don

    2012-01-01

    In this article the author focuses on signature pedagogies that are associated with different forms of educational technologies. The author categorizes forms of technologies that support the teaching and learning of mathematics in different ways, and identifies signature pedagogies associated with each category. Outcomes and impacts of different…

  19. Students' Technology Use and the Impacts on Well-Being

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cotten, Shelia R.

    2008-01-01

    This chapter reviews technology use patterns and the social impacts of technology on well-being among college students. It provides empirical evidence delineating the processes through which Internet use affects well-being among college students, and provides suggestions for ways to advance future studies in this area and for higher education…

  20. Web 2.0 and libraries impacts, technologies and trends

    CERN Document Server

    Parkes, Dave

    2010-01-01

    In a world where computing power, ubiquity and connectivity create powerful new ways to facilitate learning, this book examines how librarians and information professionals can utilize emerging technologies to expand service and resource delivery. With contributions from leading professionals, including lecturers, librarians and e-learning technologists, this bookl explores strategic approaches for effectively implementing, living with, and managing revolutionary technological change in libraries.Explores the impact of the social and technological aspects of Web 2.0 on librarie

  1. Updating Known Distribution Models for Forecasting Climate Change Impact on Endangered Species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz, Antonio-Román; Márquez, Ana Luz; Real, Raimundo

    2013-01-01

    To plan endangered species conservation and to design adequate management programmes, it is necessary to predict their distributional response to climate change, especially under the current situation of rapid change. However, these predictions are customarily done by relating de novo the distribution of the species with climatic conditions with no regard of previously available knowledge about the factors affecting the species distribution. We propose to take advantage of known species distribution models, but proceeding to update them with the variables yielded by climatic models before projecting them to the future. To exemplify our proposal, the availability of suitable habitat across Spain for the endangered Bonelli's Eagle (Aquila fasciata) was modelled by updating a pre-existing model based on current climate and topography to a combination of different general circulation models and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Our results suggested that the main threat for this endangered species would not be climate change, since all forecasting models show that its distribution will be maintained and increased in mainland Spain for all the XXI century. We remark on the importance of linking conservation biology with distribution modelling by updating existing models, frequently available for endangered species, considering all the known factors conditioning the species' distribution, instead of building new models that are based on climate change variables only. PMID:23840330

  2. Fusing data and models to forecast disturbance impacts on ecosystems: past, present, and future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietze, M.; Cowdery, E.; Rollinson, C.; Kelly, R.; Andrews, T.; Matthes, J. H.; Pourmokhtarian, A.; Viskari, T.; Serbin, S.; Shiklomanov, A. N.; Raiho, A.

    2015-12-01

    Disturbance plays a major role in shaping ecosystems, but their occurrence is stochastic and their representation in ecosystem models is widely considered to be inadequate. Both these factors place significant limits on our ability to forecast ecosystems in a changing world. Herein we address three major challenges in disturbance modeling, focusing on recent advances and emerging opportunities. First, we assess the ability of models to capture emergent observational patterns and experimental manipulations using a range of data types and across a wide range of time scales, from sub-annual (eddy flux) to interannual (inventory, tree rings) to centennial (fossil pollen and charcoal, settlement era surveys). Second, we present advances in how models can represent specific disturbance processes (insects and pathogens, non-harvest forest management) and the scaling of disturbance processes in regional- to global-scale models. Third, we address the question of how to assimilate multiple sources of disturbance data across multiple spatial and temporal scales to constrain the pools and fluxes within models. In particular, because disturbances are stochastic we want to update model projections based on field and remotely-sensed data. However, rather than driving models with a particular external data that is taken as 'truth', we explore examples of how to update models using multiple data sources while accounting for uncertainties in both the model and data. Finally, we discuss the implications of these advances and the opportunities they present for near-term carbon monitoring and long-term carbon cycle projections.

  3. Updating known distribution models for forecasting climate change impact on endangered species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz, Antonio-Román; Márquez, Ana Luz; Real, Raimundo

    2013-01-01

    To plan endangered species conservation and to design adequate management programmes, it is necessary to predict their distributional response to climate change, especially under the current situation of rapid change. However, these predictions are customarily done by relating de novo the distribution of the species with climatic conditions with no regard of previously available knowledge about the factors affecting the species distribution. We propose to take advantage of known species distribution models, but proceeding to update them with the variables yielded by climatic models before projecting them to the future. To exemplify our proposal, the availability of suitable habitat across Spain for the endangered Bonelli's Eagle (Aquila fasciata) was modelled by updating a pre-existing model based on current climate and topography to a combination of different general circulation models and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Our results suggested that the main threat for this endangered species would not be climate change, since all forecasting models show that its distribution will be maintained and increased in mainland Spain for all the XXI century. We remark on the importance of linking conservation biology with distribution modelling by updating existing models, frequently available for endangered species, considering all the known factors conditioning the species' distribution, instead of building new models that are based on climate change variables only.

  4. 风电预测技术及其性能评价综述%A Review of the Wind Power Forecasting Technology and Its Performance Evaluation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郑婷婷; 王海霞; 李卫东

    2013-01-01

      随着入网风电比例的增加,风电预测已成为保证电网安全经济运行的必要技术。归纳了风电预测的概念与分类,综述了实用风电预测系统和理论研究的最新进展,尤其是关于风电预测技术的性能评价以及监督考核措施。提出了几点未来工作的思路,为风电预测相关研究提供参考。%With the proportion growth of wind power integrated into the power system, wind power forecasting has become an indispensable technology to ensure the safe and economical operation of the system. Summarizing the concepts and classification of wind power forecasting, this paper does a review on the development of practical application and theoretical study of wind power forecasting system, especially about its performance evaluation and supervision measures. Finally, some challenges and future works are put forward as a reference for the relevant study of wind power forecasting.

  5. Benefits and Financial Impacts of Adopting Technology in Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grenman, Katri; Isomursu, Minna; Federley, Maija; Seisto, Anu

    2013-01-01

    This paper summarizes the results of an analysis of the impacts of adopting information and communication technology (ICT) solutions in a learning context. The analysis is based on a literature survey of articles reporting research cases studying the impact of adopting ICT based solutions in various learning contexts. The subject has been reviewed…

  6. Evaluating the Impact of Technology Integration in Teaching and Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adedokun-Shittu, Nafisat Afolake; Shittu, Abdul Jaleel Kehinde

    2014-01-01

    This article reports the impacts of technology integration on teaching and learning from a study that examines the impact of ICT deployment in teaching and learning at a University in Nigeria. The survey data were drawn from 593 respondents (students and lecturers) and the survey instrument employed for both the students and the lecturers is a…

  7. The Impact of Technology on Superintendent Communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, Victoria L.

    2009-01-01

    Technological advances have revolutionized the communication patterns and behaviors of district leaders. In this information-based society, the ability of the leader to select the form of communication most appropriate to the context and situation qualifies his or her effectiveness at communication. The findings emerging from this study highlight…

  8. Impact of the Information Technology Profession.

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Thomas W.

    1991-01-01

    The 1990 winner of the ELITE Award for Exemplary Leadership and Information Technology Excellence in higher education offers his axioms for information resources management, covering authority/control, communications, project management, decision making, people management, strategic planning, change management, crisis management, and personal…

  9. Impact of Information Technology in Academia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranjan, Jayanthi

    2008-01-01

    Purpose--The purpose of this paper is to study the provisions of information technology IT for development of academic resources and examines the effect of IT in academic institutions for sharing information. Design/methodology/approach--The paper examines the role of IT in sharing information in academic institutions and explores the IT…

  10. IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCEMENT ON PEDAGOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mounia ABIK

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available To improve the quality of learning, pedagogues have prescribed different pedagogical approaches (constructivist, cognitivist…. However, the effective implementation of the majority of these approaches has not been possible only after the advent of new forms of learning (E_learning, M-learning.... These forms are closely related to technological development. Later with the emergence of technology (pervasive computing, Artificial Intelligent ... a new form of learning is established. It is called Pervasive Learning "P-Learning”. P-Learning is a social process that connects learners to communities of devices, people, and situations in a transparent and independent manner. This learning form goes far beyond the predictions suggested by pedagogue. Learning can then take part outside the learner via technology, which will be an extension of his brain by unloading the cognitive practices he performs. The aim of this paper is to answer the following questions: What alliance is there between pedagogy and technology? Are we in need of a new pedagogical approach in the new learning environment "P-Learning"? What are the new pedagogical challenges to resolve?

  11. Forecasting Skill

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-01-01

    indicated that forecasting experience has little relationship to forecasting performance. In the latter three studies, neophyte forecasters became... Europe . Within a few months after a new commander was assigned, this unit’s performance rose to first place in the theater and remained there

  12. Impact Of Three-Phase Relative Permeability and Hysteresis Models On Forecasts of Storage Associated with CO2-EOR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, W.; Pan, F.; McPherson, B. J. O. L.

    2015-12-01

    Due to the presence of multiple phases in a given system, CO2 sequestration with enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) includes complex multiphase flow processes compared to CO2 sequestration in deep saline aquifers (no hydrocarbons). Two of the most important factors are three-phase relative permeability and hysteresis effects, both of which are difficult to measure and are usually represented by numerical interpolation models. The purposes of this study included quantification of impacts of different three-phase relative permeability models and hysteresis models on CO2 sequestration simulation results, and associated quantitative estimation of uncertainty. Four three-phase relative permeability models and three hysteresis models were applied to a model of an active CO2-EOR site, the SACROC unit located in western Texas. To eliminate possible bias of deterministic parameters on the evaluation, a sequential Gaussian simulation technique was utilized to generate 50 realizations to describe heterogeneity of porosity and permeability, initially obtained from well logs and seismic survey data. Simulation results of forecasted pressure distributions and CO2 storage suggest that (1) the choice of three-phase relative permeability model and hysteresis model have noticeable impacts on CO2 sequestration simulation results; (2) influences of both factors are observed in all 50 realizations; and (3) the specific choice of hysteresis model appears to be somewhat more important relative to the choice of three-phase relative permeability model in terms of model uncertainty.

  13. Advanced technology's impact on compressor design and development - A perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ball, Calvin L.

    1989-01-01

    A historical perspective of the impact of advanced technologies on compression system design and development for aircraft gas turbine applications is presented. A bright view of the future is projected in which further advancements in compression system technologies will be made. These advancements will have a significant impact on the ability to meet the ever-more-demanding requirements being imposed on the propulsion system for advanced aircraft. Examples are presented of advanced compression system concepts now being studied. The status and potential impact of transitioning from an empirically derived design system to a computationally oriented system are highlighted. A current NASA Lewis Research Center program to enhance this transitioning is described.

  14. Advanced technologies impact on compressor design and development: A perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ball, Calvin L.

    1989-01-01

    A historical perspective of the impact of advanced technologies on compression system design and development for aircraft gas turbine applications is presented. A bright view of the future is projected in which further advancements in compression system technologies will be made. These advancements will have a significant impact on the ability to meet the ever-more-demanding requirements being imposed on the propulsion system for advanced aircraft. Examples are presented of advanced compression system concepts now being studied. The status and potential impact of transitioning from an empirically derived design system to a computationally oriented system are highlighted. A current NASA Lewis Research Center program to enhance this transitioning is described.

  15. Being human in a technological age : A study of the impacts of smart technology usage

    OpenAIRE

    Brulin, Sara

    2013-01-01

    Today humans are using a large amount of smart technology to support their daily activities, for instance smartphones, tablets and computers. The relationship towards technology is changing, and with the change comes questions. In this thesis a qualitative interview study was used to deepen the understanding of humans’ daily use of technology and its impacts on their daily life. The study has shown that humans’ technology usage has both positive and negative impacts on their daily life. For i...

  16. Forecasting the future of biodiversity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fitzpatrick, M. C.; Sanders, Nate; Ferrier, Simon

    2011-01-01

    , but their application to forecasting climate change impacts on biodiversity has been limited. Here we compare forecasts of changes in patterns of ant biodiversity in North America derived from ensembles of single-species models to those from a multi-species modeling approach, Generalized Dissimilarity Modeling (GDM...... climate change impacts on biodiversity....

  17. Health information technology impact on productivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eastaugh, Steven R

    2012-01-01

    Managers work to achieve the greatest output for the least input effort, better balancing all factors of delivery to achieve the most with the smallest resource effort. Documentation of actual health information technology (HIT) cost savings has been elusive. Information technology and linear programming help to control hospital costs without harming service quality or staff morale. This study presents production function results from a study of hospital output during the period 2008-2011. The results suggest that productivity varies widely among the 58 hospitals as a function of staffing patterns, methods of organization, and the degree of reliance on information support systems. Financial incentives help to enhance productivity. Incentive pay for staff based on actual productivity gains is associated with improved productivity. HIT can enhance the marginal value product of nurses and staff, so that they concentrate their workday around patient care activities. The implementation of electronic health records (EHR) was associated with a 1.6 percent improvement in productivity.

  18. Forecasting the Cumulative Impacts of Dams on the Mekong Delta: Certainties and Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kondolf, G. M.; Rubin, Z.; Schmitt, R. J. P.

    2016-12-01

    The Mekong River basin is undergoing rapid hydroelectric development, with 7 large mainstem dams on the upper Mekong (Lancang) River in China and 133 dams planned for the Lower Mekong River basin (Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, Vietnam), 11 of which are on the mainstem. Prior analyses have shown that all these dams built as initially proposed would trap 96% of the natural sediment load to the Mekong Delta. Such a reduction in sediment supply would compromise the sustainability of the delta itself, but there are many uncertainties in the timing and pattern of land loss. The river will first erode in-channel sediment deposits, partly compensating for upstream sediment trapping until these deposits are exhausted. Other complicating factors include basin-wide accelerated land-use change, road construction, instream sand mining, dyking-off floodplains, and changing climate, accelerated subsidence from groundwater extraction, and sea level rise. It is certain that the Mekong Delta will undergo large changes in the coming decades, changes that will threaten its very existence. However, the multiplicity of compounding drivers and lack of good data lead to large uncertainties in forecasting changes in the sediment balance on the scale of a very large network. We quantify uncertainties in available data and consider changes due to additional, poorly quantified drivers (e.g., road construction), putting these drivers in perspective with the overall sediment budget. We developed a set of most-likely scenarios and their implications for the delta's future. Uncertainties are large, but there are certainties about the delta's future. If its sediment supply is nearly completely cut off (as would be the case with `business-as-usual' ongoing dam construction and sediment extraction), the Delta is certainly doomed to disappear in the face of rising seas, subsidence, and coastal erosion. The uncertainty is only when and how precisely the loss will progress.

  19. Advances in electric power and energy systems load and price forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    2017-01-01

    A comprehensive review of state-of-the-art approaches to power systems forecasting from the most respected names in the field, internationally. Advances in Electric Power and Energy Systems is the first book devoted exclusively to a subject of increasing urgency to power systems planning and operations. Written for practicing engineers, researchers, and post-grads concerned with power systems planning and forecasting, this book brings together contributions from many of the world’s foremost names in the field who address a range of critical issues, from forecasting power system load to power system pricing to post-storm service restoration times, river flow forecasting, and more. In a time of ever-increasing energy demands, mounting concerns over the environmental impacts of power generation, and the emergence of new, smart-grid technologies, electricity price forecasting has assumed a prominent role within both the academic and industrial ar nas. Short-run forecasting of electricity prices has become nece...

  20. The Impact of Technology on Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagowski, J. J.

    1995-08-01

    Near the top of the list of critical issues in education is the appropriate use of technology in the educational process. It is clear that some type of investment in educational technology, specifically interactive computing, is essential for nearly all institutions, and indeed, many have made some purchases already. Despite that fact, the leadership of educational institutions face a complex set of problems in this regard. What portion of a (probably) shrinking budget should be allocated to this expanding area? Which options from a growing array of technological choices are the most appropriate for a particular environment? Which of these options are essentials, and which are luxuries? What sorts of technology will benefit students the most? What is needed now in order to keep from falling (even further) behind a few years hence? The pressure to do something is great, and it is often exacerbated by arguments of efficiency that have little foundation in fact. For example, suggestions are often made that an investment in educational technology will help handle more students. This point of view may ultimately prevail, but little evidence on this point is currently available. Indeed, it appears that more faculty/staff effort is required to bring interactive technology into students' hands in a meaningful way. Often ignored is the amount of training necessary for a spectrum of novice users. Another argument often made is that empowering students with interactive technology will somehow lessen pressure on the current (classical) library operation. Presumably, this effect will come about through access to the Internet resources. As currently constituted, the Internet carries information of widely varying quality, ranging from the systematic holdings of many of the fine libraries of the world to outright garbage (from an intellectual point of view). Information on the Internet (other than that from libraries) is often unedited or unorganized to the extent that potential

  1. Understanding the impact of technology on firms’ business models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cavalcante, Sergio Andre

    2013-01-01

    of a new business model for the partner companies in the consortium. Practical implications – This paper is important in that it will help companies understand technological impact from a business model perspective, thereby enabling them to manage innovation better by distinguishing between the creation......Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to identify the impact of a new global positioning technology on firms’ business models. Design/methodology/approach – The empirical setting was a consortium of Danish organizations, established to develop a positioning-based technology platform as a basis...... for innovative commercial products and/or services. Three of the consortium companies were selected for case-study research. Findings – The main findings were that companies will use the new technology to extend their existing business models, and that the technology platform potentially represents the creation...

  2. Weather impact forecasting using MOGREPS with socially- and geographically-derived vulnerability and exposure datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robbins, Joanne

    2010-05-01

    Hazardous weather has a major impact on health and safety and on the economy in the UK and other countries. This has renewed efforts within the Met Office to develop a system that can predict weather related impacts, extending the Office's ability to warn the public and business sectors of potential weather related hazards. Ultimately the prediction of both an impending weather hazard and its potential for impact will allow concise decision making to implement mitigation strategies. A diagnostic tool has been developed for the UK transport network, which focuses on quantifying the risk of specific vehicle types overturning in strong winds or being disrupted due to heavy snow. The impacts to those using the network are then quantified in terms of journey delay times and number of people affected. For this tool to be effective it requires vulnerability and exposure datasets to be combined with the probability of hazardous weather occurring. Probabilities are obtained from MOGREPS (Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System), while vulnerability is a combined field which determines the varying structural and geographical attributes of each kilometre segment of motorway route. A segment's attributes influence the likelihood of that location having weather related impacts, and the severity of these impacts. The exposure field accounts for the changes in traffic flow by vehicle type, day of the week and time of the day, and increases risk of disruption if the route has high traffic flows while reducing the risk in low traffic flow areas. The model has been shown to be useful in the Met Office Operations Centre where it is used as a support tool for issuing weather warnings. However, verification of the output has been difficult due to the lack of severe wind gust events over the trial period and the difficulty in obtaining accurate impact verification information. The Highways Agency is now on board, both receiving the model's output in their Operations

  3. Further Discussion the Development on New Weather Forecasting Technology System%再论气象台天气预报技术新体系的发展

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    徐羹慧

    2012-01-01

    在前期对气象台天气预报技术发展的现状分析、发展趋势预测的基础上,从气象台天气预报技术的基本属性分析出发,进一步探讨气象台天气预报技术体系的基本框架和内容,并就推进技术发展的若干重要问题进行讨论。本文认为,如同“临床医学”一样,建筑在多种优秀成果基础上气象台天气预报技术的发展已自成体系,要象重视数值天气预报那样重视气象台预报技术体系的发展,发挥气象科技进步的综合效益,加快气象台一线预报服务水平的提高。%Based on the previous analysis upon the progress of weather forecasting system and the prediction of its developing tendency, the fundamental frame and content of weather forecasting technology system and several important issues regarding advancing technology were further discussed in this paper through analyzing the basic attribute of weather prediction skills. It was advocated that, just as "Clinical Medicine" ,the weather prediction technology founded upon various excellent researching outcomes has already had its own system. Just like numerical weather forecast ,the development of weather prediction technology system should be emphasized. Not only the benefit of the advanced meteorological science and technology should be exerted ,but also the improving process of weather prediction should be speeded up.

  4. Learning technology and organisations: transformational impact?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Hall

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available This collection of papers contributes to a wide and ongoing strand of interest in alternative learning technologies: how are digitally-enabled ways of working transforming organisations? In ‘transformation' we look for radical change, rather than just doing the same at a different scale. And in organisations we centre on educational institutions – across the full range of schooling, training, further and higher education – while recognising that conventional boundaries are increasingly broken as different kinds of organisations invest in digitally-enabled learning.

  5. Quantification of environmental impacts of various energy technologies. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Selfors, A. [ed.

    1994-10-01

    This report discusses problems related to economic assessment of the environmental impacts and abatement measures in connection with energy projects. Attention is called to the necessity of assessing environmental impacts both in the form of reduced economic welfare and in the form of costs of abatement measures to reduce the impact. In recent years, several methods for valuing environmental impacts have been developed, but the project shows that few empirical studies have been carried out. The final report indicates that some important factors are very difficult to evaluate. In addition environmental impacts of energy development in Norway vary considerably from project to project. This makes it difficult to obtain a good basis for comparing environmental impacts caused by different technologies, for instance hydroelectric power versus gas power or wind versus hydroelectric power. It might be feasible however to carry out more detailed economic assessments of environmental impacts of specific projects. 33 refs., 1 fig., 4 tabs.

  6. Satellite Cloud Assimilation in the Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) Model and its Impact on Air Quality Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pour Biazar, Arastoo; White, Andrew; McNider, Richard; Khan, Maudood; Dornblaser, Bright; Wu, Yuling

    2017-04-01

    Clouds have a significant role in air quality simulations as they modulate biogenic hydrocarbon emissions and photolysis rates, impact boundary-layer development, lead to deep vertical mixing of pollutants and precursors, and induce aqueous phase chemistry. Unfortunately, numerical meteorological models still have difficulty in creating clouds in the right place and time compared to observed clouds. This is especially the case when synoptic-scale forcing is weak, as often is the case during air pollution episodes in the Southeast United States. Thus, poor representation of clouds impacts the photochemical model's ability in simulating the air quality. However, since satellites provide the best observational platform for defining the formation and location of clouds, satellite observations can be of great value in retrospective simulations. Here, we present results from a recent activity in which the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) derived cloud fields are assimilated within Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to improve simulated clouds. The assimilation technique dynamically support cloud formation/dissipation within WRF based on GOES observations. The technique uses observations to identify model cloud errors, estimates a target vertical velocity and moisture to create/remove clouds, and adjust the flow field accordingly. The technique was implemented and tested in WRF for a month-long simulation during August 2006, and was tested in an air quality simulation over the period of August-September 2013 (NASA's Discover-AQ field campaign). The cloud assimilation on the average improved model cloud simulation by 15%. The cloud correction not only improved the spatial and temporal distribution of clouds, it also improved boundary layer temperature, humidity, and wind speed. These improvements in meteorological fields directly impacted the air quality simulations and altered trace gas concentrations. For air quality simulations, WRF

  7. The Status of Budget Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel W. Williams

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available This article examines the breadth of the current forecast literature as it relates to public budget making. It serves to provide summary information to decision-makers who otherwise do not have the resources to learn more than a small amount focused on much more narrowly defined areas of forecasting (such as the politics of forecast bias. Next, it serves those who perform forecasting related to budgeting by reviewing the current methods and practices commonly used in this domain. It also provides a ground level for future public budget forecasting research. Finally, this article identifies several areas in which the public forecasting literature needs additional development. Several of these areas, such as the effectiveness of nonregression-based forecasting techniques, are quite important to the majority of governments in the United States and other subnational jurisdictions, where budget offices are limited and resource investments in technology are scarce.

  8. The Impact of Immigrants on Public Finances: A Forecast Analysis for Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Marianne; Schultz-Nielsen, Marie Louise; Tranæs, Torben

    and as average individual life-cycle contributions. The main conclusion is that immigrants from richer countries have a positive fiscal impact, while immigrants from poorer countries have a large negative one. The negative effect is caused by both a weak labour market performance and early retirement...

  9. The Impact of Weather Forecasts of Various Lead Times on Snowmaking Decisions Made for the 2010 Vancouver Olympic Winter Games

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, Chris

    2014-01-01

    The Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics were held from 12 to 28 February 2010, and the Paralympic events followed 2 weeks later. During the Games, the weather posed a grave threat to the viability of one venue and created significant complications for the event schedule at others. Forecasts of weather with lead times ranging from minutes to days helped organizers minimize disruptions to sporting events and helped ensure all medal events were successfully completed. Of comparable importance, however, were the scenarios and forecasts of probable weather for the winter in advance of the Games. Forecasts of mild conditions at the time of the Games helped the Games' organizers mitigate what would have been very serious potential consequences for at least one venue. Snowmaking was one strategy employed well in advance of the Games to prepare for the expected conditions. This short study will focus on how operational decisions were made by the Games' organizers on the basis of both climatological and snowmaking forecasts during the pre-Games winter. An attempt will be made to quantify, economically, the value of some of the snowmaking forecasts made for the Games' operators. The results obtained indicate that although the economic value of the snowmaking forecast was difficult to determine, the Games' organizers valued the forecast information greatly. This suggests that further development of probabilistic forecasts for applications like pre-Games snowmaking would be worthwhile.

  10. Assimilation of AERONET and MODIS AOT observations using variational and ensemble data assimilation methods and its impact on aerosol forecasting skill

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubin, Juli I.; Reid, Jeffrey S.; Hansen, James A.; Anderson, Jeffrey L.; Holben, Brent N.; Xian, Peng; Westphal, Douglas L.; Zhang, Jianglong

    2017-05-01

    Data assimilation of Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aerosol optical thickness (AOT) for aerosol forecasting was tested within the Navy Aerosol Analysis Prediction System (NAAPS) framework, using variational and ensemble data assimilation methods. Navy aerosol forecasting currently makes use of a deterministic NAAPS simulation coupled to Navy Variational Data Assimilation System for aerosol optical depth, a two-dimensional variational data assimilation system, for MODIS AOT assimilation. An ensemble version of NAAPS (ENAAPS) coupled to an ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF) from the Data Assimilation Research Testbed was recently developed, allowing for a range of data assimilation and forecasting experiments to be run with deterministic NAAPS and ENAAPS. The main findings are that the EAKF, with its flow-dependent error covariances, makes better use of sparse observations such as AERONET AOT. Assimilating individual AERONET observations in the two-dimensional variational system can increase the analysis errors when observations are located in high AOT gradient regions. By including AERONET with MODIS AOT assimilation, the magnitudes of peak aerosol events (AOT > 1) were better captured with improved temporal variability, especially in India and Asia where aerosol prediction is a challenge. Assimilating AERONET AOT with MODIS had little impact on the 24 h forecast skill compared to MODIS assimilation only, but differences were found downwind of AERONET sites. The 24 h forecast skill was approximately the same for forecasts initialized with analyses from AERONET AOT assimilation alone compared to MODIS assimilation, particularly in regions where the AERONET network is dense; including the United States and Europe, indicating that AERONET could serve as a backup observation network for over-land synoptic-scale aerosol events.

  11. Technological novelty profile and invention's future impact

    CERN Document Server

    Kim, Daniel; Jeong, Hawoong; Youn, Hyejin

    2015-01-01

    We consider inventions as novel combinations of existing technological capabilities. Patent data allow us to explicitly identify such combinatorial processes in invention activities. Unconsidered in the previous research, not every new combination is novel to the same extent. Some combinations are naturally anticipated based on patent activities in the past or mere random choices, and some appear to deviate exceptionally from existing invention pathways. We calculate a likelihood that each pair of classification codes is put together at random, and a deviation from the empirical observation so as to assess its overall novelty (or conventionality) the patent brings forth at each year. An invention is considered as unconventional if a pair of codes therein is unlikely to be used together given the statistics in the past. Temporal evolution of the distribution indicates the patenting activities become more being established with occasional cross-over combinations. Our analyses show that patents introducing novel...

  12. Impact of spaceborne carbon monoxide observations from the S-5P platform on tropospheric composition analyses and forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abida, Rachid; Attié, Jean-Luc; El Amraoui, Laaziz; Ricaud, Philippe; Lahoz, William; Eskes, Henk; Segers, Arjo; Curier, Lyana; de Haan, Johan; Kujanpää, Jukka; Oude Nijhuis, Albert; Tamminen, Johanna; Timmermans, Renske; Veefkind, Pepijn

    2017-01-01

    We use the technique of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) to quantify the impact of spaceborne carbon monoxide (CO) total column observations from the Sentinel-5 Precursor (S-5P) platform on tropospheric analyses and forecasts. We focus on Europe for the period of northern summer 2003, when there was a severe heat wave episode associated with extremely hot and dry weather conditions. We describe different elements of the OSSE: (i) the nature run (NR), i.e., the truth; (ii) the CO synthetic observations; (iii) the assimilation run (AR), where we assimilate the observations of interest; (iv) the control run (CR), in this study a free model run without assimilation; and (v) efforts to establish the fidelity of the OSSE results. Comparison of the results from AR and the CR, against the NR, shows that CO total column observations from S-5P provide a significant benefit (at the 99 % confidence level) at the surface, with the largest benefit occurring over land in regions far away from emission sources. Furthermore, the S-5P CO total column observations are able to capture phenomena such as the forest fires that occurred in Portugal during northern summer 2003. These results provide evidence of the benefit of S-5P observations for monitoring processes contributing to atmospheric pollution.

  13. Impact of Smart Grid Technologies on Peak Load to 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-01

    The IEA's Smart Grids Technology Roadmap identified five global trends that could be effectively addressed by deploying smart grids. These are: increasing peak load (the maximum power that the grid delivers during peak hours), rising electricity consumption, electrification of transport, deployment of variable generation technologies (e.g. wind and solar PV) and ageing infrastructure. Along with this roadmap, a new working paper -- Impact of Smart Grid Technologies on Peak Load to 2050 -- develops a methodology to estimate the evolution of peak load until 2050. It also analyses the impact of smart grid technologies in reducing peak load for four key regions; OECD North America, OECD Europe, OECD Pacific and China. This working paper is a first IEA effort in an evolving modelling process of smart grids that is considering demand response in residential and commercial sectors as well as the integration of electric vehicles.

  14. OSSE impact analysis of airborne ocean surveys for improving upper-ocean dynamical and thermodynamical forecasts in the Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halliwell, George R.; Kourafalou, Vassiliki; Le Hénaff, Matthieu; Shay, Lynn K.; Atlas, Robert

    2015-01-01

    A prototype, rigorously validated ocean Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) system is used to evaluate the impact of different sampling strategies for rapid-response airborne ocean profile surveys in the eastern interior Gulf of Mexico. Impacts are assessed with respect to improving ocean analyses, and forecasts initialized from those analyses, for two applications: improving oil spill forecasts and improving the ocean model response to tropical cyclone (TC) forcing. Rapid model error growth in this region requires that repeat surveys be conducted frequently in time, with separation of less than 4 days required to approach maximum error reduction in model analyses. Substantial additional error reduction in model dynamical fields is achieved by deploying deep (1000 m) AXCTDs instead of shallow (400 m) AXBTs. Shallow AXBTs constrain the ocean thermal field over the upper 400 m nearly as well as deep AXCTDs. However, in addition to constraining ocean fields over a greater depth range, AXCTDs also measure salinity profiles and more accurately constrain upper-ocean density than AXBTs, leading to a more accurate representation of upper ocean pressure and velocity fields. Sampling AXCTD profiles over a one-half degree array compared to one degree leads to substantial additional error reduction by constraining variability with horizontal scales too small to be corrected by satellite altimetry assimilation. A 2-day lag in availability of airborne profiles does not increase errors in dynamical ocean fields, but it does increase errors in upper-ocean thermal field including Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP), demonstrating that these profiles must be rapidly made available for assimilation to improve TC forecasts. The additional error reduction in ocean analyses achieved by assimilation of airborne surveys translates into significantly improved forecasts persisting over time intervals ranging between 1 and 2 weeks for most model variables but several weeks for

  15. The Impact of Ocean Data Assimilation on Seasonal-to-Interannual Forecasts: A Case Study of the 2006 El Nino Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Shu-Chih; Rienecker, Michele; Keppenne, Christian

    2010-01-01

    This study investigates the impact of four different ocean analyses on coupled forecasts of the 2006 El Nino event. Forecasts initialized in June 2006 using ocean analyses from an assimilation that uses flow-dependent background error covariances are compared with those using static error covariances that are not flow dependent. The flow-dependent error covariances reflect the error structures related to the background ENSO instability and are generated by the coupled breeding method. The ocean analyses used in this study result from the assimilation of temperature and salinity, with the salinity data available from Argo floats. Of the analyses, the one using information from the coupled bred vectors (BV) replicates the observed equatorial long wave propagation best and exhibits more warming features leading to the 2006 El Nino event. The forecasts initialized from the BV-based analysis agree best with the observations in terms of the growth of the warm anomaly through two warming phases. This better performance is related to the impact of the salinity analysis on the state evolution in the equatorial thermocline. The early warming is traced back to salinity differences in the upper ocean of the equatorial central Pacific, while the second warming, corresponding to the mature phase, is associated with the effect of the salinity assimilation on the depth of the thermocline in the western equatorial Pacific. The series of forecast experiments conducted here show that the structure of the salinity in the initial conditions is important to the forecasts of the extension of the warm pool and the evolution of the 2006 El Ni o event.

  16. The impact of technological era in human resource management

    OpenAIRE

    2016-01-01

    The Impact of the Technological Era in Human Resource Management This work project is a literature review, which covers current studies (theoretical and empirical) on electronic Human Resource Management, human resources analytics and telework, and discusses some implications of the adoption of technology in human resource management processes. The Work Project presents and discusses different and contradictory perspectives between empirical and theoretical studies, demonstrating that t...

  17. Local and national impact of aerospace research and technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mccarthy, J. F., Jr.

    1981-01-01

    An overview of work at the NASA Lewis Research Center in the areas of aeronautics space, and energy is presented. Local and national impact of the work is discussed. Some aspects of the U.S. research and technology base, the aerospace industry, and foreign competition are discussed. In conclusion, U.S. research and technology programs are cited as vital to U.S. economic health.

  18. The impact of technological era in human resource management

    OpenAIRE

    Ritter, Andrea Fernandes Rodrigues

    2016-01-01

    The Impact of the Technological Era in Human Resource Management This work project is a literature review, which covers current studies (theoretical and empirical) on electronic Human Resource Management, human resources analytics and telework, and discusses some implications of the adoption of technology in human resource management processes. The Work Project presents and discusses different and contradictory perspectives between empirical and theoretical studies, demonstrating that t...

  19. Oil Market Forecast and the Analysis of Economic Impact of Oil Price Fluctuations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, M.B. [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

    2001-12-01

    In the past two years, we noticed that oil prices have fluctuated with a wide range of $10 per barrel in the international oil markets. Since her annual oil import exceeded 10% of the national gross import, Korea became much concerned with economic impacts of changes in crude oil prices along with the short-term outlook of international crude oil market. In this context, this study is conducted to build a macro-economic model as well as an input-output analysis to deal with such changes in oil prices. The major findings are as follows: In the short-term, oil import price in 2001 is expected to stay at the level of $23.50 per barrel and the price will drop to the level of $20{approx}$22, approximately 10% drop from the previous year. The short-term impacts of these oil prices include: 3.0% increase in GDP; 9.7% decrease in export; 2.8% increase in petroleum product prices; 2.8% increase in demand for petroleum products; 6.1% increase in producer price index (PPI) in 2001. The impacts of 10% drop in oil prices under a scenario of the constant foreign exchange rate against US dollar include: 5.2% increase in GDP; 3.7% increase in import, 1.1% increase in petroleum product prices, 8.1% increase in demand for petroleum; and 3.7% increase in PPI. An input-output analysis reveals that the decrease in petroleum production cost induced by 10% drop in oil import prices amounted to approximately 5{approx}6%. Other sectors which show a big drop in production cost are basic petro-chemical industry, heat suppliers, electricity sector, and city gas suppliers. Among the petroleum products, naphtha shows the biggest drop of 8% in production cost, followed by fuel oils (7%), kerosene and diesel (6%), LPG (6%), and gasoline (3%). (author). 20 refs., 7 figs., 12 tabs.

  20. Precipitation observations for operational flood forecasting in Scotland: Data availability, limitations and the impact of observational uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parry, Louise; Neely, Ryan, III; Bennett, Lindsay; Collier, Chris; Dufton, David

    2017-04-01

    The Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) has a statutory responsibility to provide flood warning across Scotland. It achieves this through an operational partnership with the UK Met Office wherein meteorological forecasts are applied to a national distributed hydrological model, Grid- to- Grid (G2G), and catchment specific lumped PDM models. Both of these model types rely on observed precipitation input for model development and calibration, and operationally for historical runs to generate initial conditions. Scotland has an average annual precipitation of 1430mm per annum (1971-2000), but the spatial variability in totals is high, predominantly in relation to the topography and prevailing winds, which poses different challenges to both radar and point measurement methods of observation. In addition, the high elevations mean that in winter a significant proportion of precipitation falls as snow. For the operational forecasting models, observed rainfall data is provided in Near Real Time (NRT) from SEPA's network of approximately 260 telemetered TBR gauges and 4 UK Met Office C-band radars. Both data sources have their strengths and weaknesses, particularly in relation to the orography and spatial representativeness, but estimates of rainfall from the two methods can vary greatly. Northern Scotland, particularly near Inverness, is a comparatively sparse part of the radar network. Rainfall totals and distribution in this area are determined by the Northern Western Highlands and Cairngorms mountain ranges, which also have a negative impact on radar observations. In recognition of this issue, the NCAS mobile X-band weather radar (MXWR) was deployed in this area between February and August 2016. This study presents a comparison of rainfall estimates for the Inverness and Moray Firth region generated from the operational radar network, the TBR network, and the MXWR. Quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) from both sources of radar data were compared to

  1. Short and Long-Term Perspectives: The Impact on Low-Income Consumers of Forecasted Energy Price Increases in 2008 and A Cap & Trade Carbon Policy in 2030

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eisenberg, Joel Fred [ORNL

    2008-01-01

    The Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently released its short-term forecast for residential energy prices for the winter of 2007-2008. The forecast indicates increases in costs for low-income consumers in the year ahead, particularly for those using fuel oil to heat their homes. In the following analysis, the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has integrated the EIA price projections with the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) for 2001 in order to project the impact of these price increases on the nation's low-income households by primary heating fuel type, nationally and by Census Region. The report provides an update of bill estimates provided in a previous study, "The Impact Of Forecasted Energy Price Increases On Low-Income Consumers" (Eisenberg, 2005). The statistics are intended for use by policymakers in the Department of Energy's Weatherization Assistance Program and elsewhere who are trying to gauge the nature and severity of the problems that will be faced by eligible low-income households during the 2008 fiscal year. In addition to providing expenditure forecasts for the year immediately ahead, this analysis uses a similar methodology to give policy makers some insight into one of the major policy debates that will impact low-income energy expenditures well into the middle decades of this century and beyond. There is now considerable discussion of employing a cap-and-trade mechanism to first limit and then reduce U.S. emissions of carbon into the atmosphere in order to combat the long-range threat of human-induced climate change. The Energy Information Administration has provided an analysis of projected energy prices in the years 2020 and 2030 for one such cap-and-trade carbon reduction proposal that, when integrated with the RECS 2001 database, provides estimates of how low-income households will be impacted over the long term by such a carbon reduction policy.

  2. Econometrics 101: forecasting demystified

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crow, R.T.

    1980-05-01

    Forecasting by econometric modeling is described in a commonsense way which omits much of the technical jargon. A trend of continuous growth is no longer an adequate forecasting tool. Today's forecasters must consider rapid changes in price, policies, regulations, capital availability, and the cost of being wrong. A forecasting model is designed by identifying future influences on electricity purchases and quantifying their relationships to each other. A record is produced which can be evaluated and used to make corrections in the models. Residential consumption is used to illustrate how this works and to demonstrate how power consumption is also related to the purchase and use of equipment. While models can quantify behavioral relationships, they cannot account for the impacts of non-price factors because of limited data. (DCK)

  3. Balance characteristics of multivariate background error covariance for rainy and dry seasons and their impact on precipitation forecasts of two rainfall events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yaodeng; Xia, Xue; Min, Jinzhong; Huang, Xiang-Yu; Rizvi, Syed R. H.

    2016-10-01

    Atmospheric moisture content or humidity is an important analysis variable of any meteorological data assimilation system. The humidity analysis can be univariate, using humidity background (normally short-range numerical forecasts) and humidity observations. However, more and more data assimilation systems are multivariate, analyzing humidity together with wind, temperature and pressure. Background error covariances, with unbalanced velocity potential and humidity in the multivariate formulation, are generated from weather research and forecasting model forecasts, collected over a summer rainy season and a winter dry season. The unbalanced velocity potential and humidity related correlations are shown to be significantly larger, indicating more important roles unbalanced velocity potential and humidity play, in the rainy season than that in the dry season. Three cycling data assimilation experiments of two rainfall events in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River are carried out. The experiments differ in the formulation of the background error covariances. Results indicate that only including unbalanced velocity potential in the multivariate background error covariance improves wind analyses, but has little impact on temperature and humidity analyses. In contrast, further including humidity in the multivariate background error covariance although has a slight negative effect on wind analyses and a neutral effect on temperature analyses, but significantly improves humidity analyses, leading to precipitation forecasts more consistent with China Hourly Merged Precipitation Analysis.

  4. Demand forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Gregor, Belčec

    2011-01-01

    Companies operate in an increasingly challenging environment that requires them to continuously improve all areas of the business process. Demand forecasting is one area in manufacturing companies where we can hope to gain great advantages. Improvements in forecasting can result in cost savings throughout the supply chain, improve the reliability of information and the quality of the service for our customers. In the company Danfoss Trata, d. o. o. we did not have a system for demand forecast...

  5. IMPaCT - Integration of Missions, Programs, and Core Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balacuit, Carlos P.; Cutts, James A.; Peterson, Craig E.; Beauchamp, Patricia M.; Jones, Susan K.; Hang, Winnie N.; Dastur, Shahin D.

    2013-01-01

    IMPaCT enables comprehensive information on current NASA missions, prospective future missions, and the technologies that NASA is investing in, or considering investing in, to be accessed from a common Web-based interface. It allows dependencies to be established between missions and technology, and from this, the benefits of investing in individual technologies can be determined. The software also allows various scenarios for future missions to be explored against resource constraints, and the nominal cost and schedule of each mission to be modified in an effort to fit within a prescribed budget.

  6. Impact of Information Technology and Internet in Businesses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Afërdita Berisha-Shaqiri

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available In the past few decades there has been a revolution in computing and communications, and all indications are that technological progress and use of information technology will continue. The revolution in information and communication technology has changed not only our lives but also the way how people do business. Using information technology, companies possess the potential to reach more customers, introduce new products and services quickly, and collaborate with suppliers and business partners from all over the world. Transformation from industrial society to information society and industrial economy to knowledge economy is a result of the impact of ICT and Internet use. Main objective of this paper is to describe information technology; opportunities of Internet usage for businesses to achieve strategic advantages compared to their competition and how they can facilitate the movement of goods and services from producers to customers.

  7. [Advances in low impact development technology for urban stormwater management].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Wen; Chen, Wei-ping; Peng, Chi

    2015-06-01

    Low impact development ( LID), as an innovative technology for stormwater management, is effective to mitigate urban flooding and to detain pollutants. This paper systemically introduced the LID technology system, and summarized the reduction effects of three typical LID facilities (i.e. , bio-retention, green roof and permeable pavement) on stormwater runoff and main pollutants in recent literature, as well as research outcomes and experiences of LID technology on model simulation, cost-benefit analysis and management system. On this basis, we analyzed the problems and limitations of current LID technology studies. Finally, some suggestions about future research directions, appropriate design and scientific management were put forth. This work intended to provide scientific basis and suggestions for widespread use and standard setting of LID technology in China by referencing overseas studies.

  8. How wearable technologies will impact the future of health care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnard, Rick; Shea, J Timothy

    2004-01-01

    After four hundred years of delivering health care in hospitals, industrialized countries are now shifting towards treating patients at the "point of need". This trend will likely accelerate demand for, and adoption of, wearable computing and smart fabric and interactive textile (SFIT) solutions. These healthcare solutions will be designed to provide real-time vital and diagnostic information to health care providers, patients, and related stakeholders in such a manner as to improve quality of care, reduce the cost of care, and allow patients greater control over their own health. The current market size for wearable computing and SFIT solutions is modest; however, the future outlook is extremely strong. Venture Development Corporation, a technology market research and strategy firm, was founded in 1971. Over the years, VDC has developed and implemented a unique and highly successful methodology for forecasting and analyzing highly dynamic technology markets. VDC has extensive experience in providing multi-client and proprietary analysis in the electronic components, advanced materials, and mobile computing markets.

  9. Multiple Case Study on Cyberbullying's Impacts on Adolescent Technology Use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Kent W.

    2013-01-01

    This multiple case study focused on whether and how cyberbullying had an impact on students' use of technology. Analysis of the lived experiences of the participants in this study added depth to the quantitative research previously conducted by others in this area. The conceptual framework was based on social learning theory, which suggested that…

  10. Impact of Individualized Instructional Materials on Technology Education Programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welty, Kenneth; Tsai, Wei-Kun

    1995-01-01

    A survey of technology instructors in junior and senior high schools determined the impact of adopting modular programs using individualized instructional materials (IIMs) on their teaching styles: teacher-directed methods decreased; use of student-oriented materials increased, while use of teacher-oriented materials decreased; frequency of…

  11. Multiple Case Study on Cyberbullying's Impacts on Adolescent Technology Use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Kent W.

    2013-01-01

    This multiple case study focused on whether and how cyberbullying had an impact on students' use of technology. Analysis of the lived experiences of the participants in this study added depth to the quantitative research previously conducted by others in this area. The conceptual framework was based on social learning theory, which suggested that…

  12. The impact of health information technology on staffing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldsack, Jennifer C; Robinson, Edmondo J

    2014-02-01

    Hospitals nationwide must demonstrate meaningful use by 2015 or face fines. For over 20 years, researchers have attempted to assess the impact of electronic record keeping technologies on the quality, safety, and efficiency of care, but results are inconclusive and hospital managers have little evidence on which to base staffing decisions as we hurtle toward the era of the paperless hospital.

  13. Impact of Individualized Instructional Materials on Technology Education Programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welty, Kenneth; Tsai, Wei-Kun

    1995-01-01

    A survey of technology instructors in junior and senior high schools determined the impact of adopting modular programs using individualized instructional materials (IIMs) on their teaching styles: teacher-directed methods decreased; use of student-oriented materials increased, while use of teacher-oriented materials decreased; frequency of…

  14. Forecasted Impact of Climate Change on Infectious Disease and Health Security in Hawaii by 2050.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canyon, Deon V; Speare, Rick; Burkle, Frederick M

    2016-12-01

    Climate change is expected to cause extensive shifts in the epidemiology of infectious and vector-borne diseases. Scenarios on the effects of climate change typically attribute altered distribution of communicable diseases to a rise in average temperature and altered incidence of infectious diseases to weather extremes. Recent evaluations of the effects of climate change on Hawaii have not explored this link. It may be expected that Hawaii's natural geography and robust water, sanitation, and health care infrastructure renders residents less vulnerable to many threats that are the focus on smaller, lesser developed, and more vulnerable Pacific islands. In addition, Hawaii's communicable disease surveillance and response system can act rapidly to counter increases in any disease above baseline and to redirect resources to deal with changes, particularly outbreaks due to exotic pathogens. The evidence base examined in this article consistently revealed very low climate sensitivity with respect to infectious and mosquito-borne diseases. A community resilience model is recommended to increase adaptive capacity for all possible climate change impacts rather an approach that focuses specifically on communicable diseases. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:797-804).

  15. Verification of ECMWF and ECMWF/MACC's global and direct irradiance forecasts with respect to solar electricity production forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Schroedter-Homscheidt

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The successful electricity grid integration of solar energy into day-ahead markets requires at least hourly resolved 48 h forecasts. Technologies as photovoltaics and non-concentrating solar thermal technologies make use of global horizontal irradiance (GHI forecasts, while all concentrating technologies both from the photovoltaic and the thermal sector require direct normal irradiances (DNI. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF has recently changed towards providing direct as well as global irradiances. Additionally, the MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition & Climate near-real time services provide daily analysis and forecasts of aerosol properties in preparation of the upcoming European Copernicus programme. The operational ECMWF/IFS (Integrated Forecast System forecast system will in the medium term profit from the Copernicus service aerosol forecasts. Therefore, within the MACC‑II project specific experiment runs were performed allowing for the assessment of the performance gain of these potential future capabilities. Also the potential impact of providing forecasts with hourly output resolution compared to three-hourly resolved forecasts is investigated. The inclusion of the new aerosol climatology in October 2003 improved both the GHI and DNI forecasts remarkably, while the change towards a new radiation scheme in 2007 only had minor and partly even unfavourable impacts on the performance indicators. For GHI, larger RMSE (root mean square error values are found for broken/overcast conditions than for scattered cloud fields. For DNI, the findings are opposite with larger RMSE values for scattered clouds compared to overcast/broken cloud situations. The introduction of direct irradiances as an output parameter in the operational IFS version has not resulted in a general performance improvement with respect to biases and RMSE compared to the widely used Skartveit et al. (1998 global to direct irradiance

  16. Evaluating the Impacts of NASA/SPoRT Daily Greenness Vegetation Fraction on Land Surface Model and Numerical Weather Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Jordan R.; Case, Jonathan L.; LaFontaine, Frank J.; Kumar, Sujay V.

    2012-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed a Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVF) dataset, which is updated daily using swaths of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data aboard the NASA EOS Aqua and Terra satellites. NASA SPoRT began generating daily real-time GVF composites at 1-km resolution over the Continental United States (CONUS) on 1 June 2010. The purpose of this study is to compare the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) climatology GVF product (currently used in operational weather models) to the SPoRT-MODIS GVF during June to October 2010. The NASA Land Information System (LIS) was employed to study the impacts of the SPoRT-MODIS GVF dataset on a land surface model (LSM) apart from a full numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. For the 2010 warm season, the SPoRT GVF in the western portion of the CONUS was generally higher than the NCEP climatology. The eastern CONUS GVF had variations both above and below the climatology during the period of study. These variations in GVF led to direct impacts on the rates of heating and evaporation from the land surface. In the West, higher latent heat fluxes prevailed, which enhanced the rates of evapotranspiration and soil moisture depletion in the LSM. By late Summer and Autumn, both the average sensible and latent heat fluxes increased in the West as a result of the more rapid soil drying and higher coverage of GVF. The impacts of the SPoRT GVF dataset on NWP was also examined for a single severe weather case study using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Two separate coupled LIS/WRF model simulations were made for the 17 July 2010 severe weather event in the Upper Midwest using the NCEP and SPoRT GVFs, with all other model parameters remaining the same. Based on the sensitivity results, regions with higher GVF in the SPoRT model runs had higher evapotranspiration and

  17. MORE THAN MONEY: THE EXPONENTIAL IMPACT OF ACADEMIC TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDevitt, Valerie Landrio; Mendez-Hinds, Joelle; Winwood, David; Nijhawan, Vinit; Sherer, Todd; Ritter, John F; Sanberg, Paul R

    2014-11-01

    Academic technology transfer in its current form began with the passage of the Bayh-Dole Act in 1980, which allowed universities to retain ownership of federally funded intellectual property. Since that time, a profession has evolved that has transformed how inventions arising in universities are treated, resulting in significant impact to US society. While there have been a number of articles highlighting benefits of technology transfer, now, more than at any other time since the Bayh-Dole Act was passed, the profession and the impacts of this groundbreaking legislation have come under intense scrutiny. This article serves as an examination of the many positive benefits and evolution, both financial and intrinsic, provided by academic invention and technology transfer, summarized in Table 1.

  18. Impact of seasonal forecast use on agricultural income in a system with varying crop costs and returns: an empirically-grounded simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunda, T.; Bazuin, J. T.; Nay, J.; Yeung, K. L.

    2017-03-01

    Access to seasonal climate forecasts can benefit farmers by allowing them to make more informed decisions about their farming practices. However, it is unclear whether farmers realize these benefits when crop choices available to farmers have different and variable costs and returns; multiple countries have programs that incentivize production of certain crops while other crops are subject to market fluctuations. We hypothesize that the benefits of forecasts on farmer livelihoods will be moderated by the combined impact of differing crop economics and changing climate. Drawing upon methods and insights from both physical and social sciences, we develop a model of farmer decision-making to evaluate this hypothesis. The model dynamics are explored using empirical data from Sri Lanka; primary sources include survey and interview information as well as game-based experiments conducted with farmers in the field. Our simulations show that a farmer using seasonal forecasts has more diversified crop selections, which drive increases in average agricultural income. Increases in income are particularly notable under a drier climate scenario, when a farmer using seasonal forecasts is more likely to plant onions, a crop with higher possible returns. Our results indicate that, when water resources are scarce (i.e. drier climate scenario), farmer incomes could become stratified, potentially compounding existing disparities in farmers’ financial and technical abilities to use forecasts to inform their crop selections. This analysis highlights that while programs that promote production of certain crops may ensure food security in the short-term, the long-term implications of these dynamics need careful evaluation.

  19. Impact of “smart” technologies in teaching maritime subjects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barsan, E.; Varsami, C.; Duse, A.; Hanzu-Pazara, R.; Jenaru, A.

    2017-08-01

    Nowadays students were born in a world of continuous evolution of technology. Technology is part of their daily life inside and outside their professional studies. One of the most important discoveries when it comes to technology is the internet which provides today the possibility for students to have access to all types of information and resources which are very useful in their studies activities. Therefore, in our paper we ask a very natural question: which is the place of technology in the university studies? Moreover: What part does technology play in teaching Maritime subjects? And: Which is the impact of technology in maritime teaching? Our intention is to go into more specific details on this subject, as in trying to exemplify our observations based on our own experience in teaching in Constanta Maritime University. Further on, we intend to discuss how the so called “smart” technologies came into occupying a very important place in the daily activities of our students forcing trainers to cope with this phenomenon in order to improve their teaching activities and even their relation (communication) with their students. We chose to develop this subject because everybody needs to be aware of the huge differences between generations of students. Previous generations used to require and enjoy studying from the traditional paper resources, while present generations do not even visit the libraries anymore. This is why university lecturers need to adapt their teaching methods, teaching tools and study materials to their students’ needs and of course to the evolution of technology.

  20. Impacts of Land Process on the Onset and Evolution of Asian Summer Monsoon in the NCEP Climate Forecast System

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Song YANG; WEN Min; Rongqian YANG; Wayne HIGGINS; ZHANG Renhe

    2011-01-01

    Impacts of land models and initial land conditions (ICs) on the Asian summer monsoon,especially its onset,were investigated using the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS).Two land models,the Oregon State University (OSU) land model and the NCEP,OSU,Air Force,and Hydrologic Research Laboratory (Noah) land model,were used to get parallel experiments.The experiments also used land ICs from the NCEP/Department of Energy (DOE) Global Reanalysis 2 (GR2) and the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS).Previous studies have demonstrated that,a systematic weak bias appears in the modeled monsoon,and this bias may be related to a cold bias over the Asian land mass.Results of the current study show that replacement of the OSU land model by the Noah land model improved the model's cold bias and produced improved monsoon precipitation and circulation patterns.The CFS predicted monsoon with greater proficiency in El Ni(n)o years,compared to La Ni(n)a years,and the Noah model performed better than the OSU model in monsoon predictions for individual years.These improvements occurred not only in relation to monsoon onset in late spring but also to monsoon intensity in summer.Our analysis of the monsoon features over the India peninsula,the Indo-China peninsula,and the South Chinese Sea indicates different degrees of improvement.Furthermore,a change in the land models led to more remarkable improvement in monsoon prediction than did a change from the GR2 land ICs to the GLDAS land ICs.

  1. Big Data impacts on stochastic Forecast Models: Evidence from FX time series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sebastian Dietz

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available With the rise of the Big Data paradigm new tasks for prediction models appeared. In addition to the volume problem of such data sets nonlinearity becomes important, as the more detailed data sets contain also more comprehensive information, e.g. about non regular seasonal or cyclical movements as well as jumps in time series. This essay compares two nonlinear methods for predicting a high frequency time series, the USD/Euro exchange rate. The first method investigated is Autoregressive Neural Network Processes (ARNN, a neural network based nonlinear extension of classical autoregressive process models from time series analysis (see Dietz 2011. Its advantage is its simple but scalable time series process model architecture, which is able to include all kinds of nonlinearities based on the universal approximation theorem of Hornik, Stinchcombe and White 1989 and the extensions of Hornik 1993. However, restrictions related to the numeric estimation procedures limit the flexibility of the model. The alternative is a Support Vector Machine Model (SVM, Vapnik 1995. The two methods compared have different approaches of error minimization (Empirical error minimization at the ARNN vs. structural error minimization at the SVM. Our new finding is, that time series data classified as “Big Data” need new methods for prediction. Estimation and prediction was performed using the statistical programming language R. Besides prediction results we will also discuss the impact of Big Data on data preparation and model validation steps. Normal 0 21 false false false DE X-NONE X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Normale Tabelle"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman","serif";}

  2. Modelling the impact of technology on anti poaching command and control systems

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Oosthuizen, R

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Introducing a new technology into a complex sociotechnical system will have planned as well as unplanned impact. The need for a new technology may arise from new technology available for improved performance (technology push) or changes...

  3. The impact of convection in the West African monsoon region on global weather forecasts - explicit vs. parameterised convection simulations using the ICON model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pante, Gregor; Knippertz, Peter

    2017-04-01

    The West African monsoon is the driving element of weather and climate during summer in the Sahel region. It interacts with mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and the African easterly jet and African easterly waves. Poor representation of convection in numerical models, particularly its organisation on the mesoscale, can result in unrealistic forecasts of the monsoon dynamics. Arguably, the parameterisation of convection is one of the main deficiencies in models over this region. Overall, this has negative impacts on forecasts over West Africa itself but may also affect remote regions, as waves originating from convective heating are badly represented. Here we investigate those remote forecast impacts based on daily initialised 10-day forecasts for July 2016 using the ICON model. One set of simulations employs the default setup of the global model with a horizontal grid spacing of 13 km. It is compared with simulations using the 2-way nesting capability of ICON. A second model domain over West Africa (the nest) with 6.5 km grid spacing is sufficient to explicitly resolve MCSs in this region. In the 2-way nested simulations, the prognostic variables of the global model are influenced by the results of the nest through relaxation. The nest with explicit convection is able to reproduce single MCSs much more realistically compared to the stand-alone global simulation with parameterised convection. Explicit convection leads to cooler temperatures in the lower troposphere (below 500 hPa) over the northern Sahel due to stronger evaporational cooling. Overall, the feedback of dynamic variables from the nest to the global model shows clear positive effects when evaluating the output of the global domain of the 2-way nesting simulation and the output of the stand-alone global model with ERA-Interim re-analyses. Averaged over the 2-way nested region, bias and root mean squared error (RMSE) of temperature, geopotential, wind and relative humidity are significantly reduced in

  4. Impact of New Camera Technologies on Discoveries in Cell Biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuurman, Nico; Vale, Ronald D

    2016-08-01

    New technologies can make previously invisible phenomena visible. Nowhere is this more obvious than in the field of light microscopy. Beginning with the observation of "animalcules" by Antonie van Leeuwenhoek, when he figured out how to achieve high magnification by shaping lenses, microscopy has advanced to this day by a continued march of discoveries driven by technical innovations. Recent advances in single-molecule-based technologies have achieved unprecedented resolution, and were the basis of the Nobel prize in Chemistry in 2014. In this article, we focus on developments in camera technologies and associated image processing that have been a major driver of technical innovations in light microscopy. We describe five types of developments in camera technology: video-based analog contrast enhancement, charge-coupled devices (CCDs), intensified sensors, electron multiplying gain, and scientific complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor cameras, which, together, have had major impacts in light microscopy.

  5. The impact of technology on fighter aircraft requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dollyhigh, S. M.; Foss, W. E., Jr.

    1985-01-01

    Technology integration studies were made to examine the impact of emerging technologies on fighter aircraft. The technologies examined included advances in aerodynamics, controls, structures, propulsion, and systems and were those which appeared capable of being ready for application by the turn of the century. A primary impetus behind large increases in figher capability will be the rapid increase in fighter engine thrust-to-weight ratio. High thrust-weight engines, integrated with other advanced and emerging technologies, can result in small extremely maneuverable fighter aircraft that have thrust-weight ratios of 1.4+ and weight one-half as much as today's fighters. Future fighter aircraft requirements are likely to include a turn capability in excess of 7g's throughout much of the maneuver envelope, post-stall maneuverability, STOVL or VTOL, and a single engine for low cost.

  6. A preliminary study of the impact of the ERS 1 C band scatterometer wind data on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts global data assimilation system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, Ross N.

    1993-01-01

    A preliminary assessment of the impact of the ERS 1 scatterometer wind data on the current European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts analysis and forecast system has been carried out. Although the scatterometer data results in changes to the analyses and forecasts, there is no consistent improvement or degradation. Our results are based on comparing analyses and forecasts from assimilation cycles. The two sets of analyses are very similar except for the low level wind fields over the ocean. Impacts on the analyzed wind fields are greater over the southern ocean, where other data are scarce. For the most part the mass field increments are too small to balance the wind increments. The effect of the nonlinear normal mode initialization on the analysis differences is quite small, but we observe that the differences tend to wash out in the subsequent 6-hour forecast. In the Northern Hemisphere, analysis differences are very small, except directly at the scatterometer locations. Forecast comparisons reveal large differences in the Southern Hemisphere after 72 hours. Notable differences in the Northern Hemisphere do not appear until late in the forecast. Overall, however, the Southern Hemisphere impacts are neutral. The experiments described are preliminary in several respects. We expect these data to ultimately prove useful for global data assimilation.

  7. Long-Term Forecast 2012 - An impact analysis of existing policy instruments in energy- and climate area; Laangsiktsprognos 2012 - En konsekvensanalys av gaellande styrmedel inom energi- och klimatomraadet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-08-01

    The Energy Agency has a mandate that under 'Ordinance on climate reporting' (SFS 2005:626) out projections for the energy sector of the European Parliament and Council Decision No 280/2004/EC concerning a 'Mechanism for monitoring the emissions of the Community greenhouse gas'. This report contains a reference trajectory until 2030, and two sensitivity scenarios. The forecast is based on existing instruments, which means that results of the report should not be regarded as a proper projection of future energy, but as the impact of current policy instruments given different conditions such as economic growth and fuel prices. The Energy Authority's long-term forecasts are studied energy system's long-term development on the basis of policy instruments and several assumed conditions. The conditions for this long-term prognosis was established in January 2012 and has its basis in the policy instruments decided until the turn of 2011/2012. The work was partially done in conjunction with the Environmental Protection Agency assignments 'Assignment to provide input to a Swedish road map for Sweden without greenhouse gas emissions in 2050' as reported in December 2012. For a short-term development of the energy system the reader is referred to the Energy Authority's short-term forecasts that extend two to three years into the future and that are produced twice a year. Energy Agency's long-term projections are impact assessments with time horizon of 10-20 years which aims to describe the energy system's future development, provided a range of assumed conditions. If any of these conditions change it will also change forecast results. Economic development is an important assumption for the assessment of future energy.

  8. An experimental system for flood risk forecasting and monitoring at global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dottori, Francesco; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Kalas, Milan; Lorini, Valerio; Salamon, Peter

    2017-04-01

    Global flood forecasting and monitoring systems are nowadays a reality and are being applied by a wide range of users and practitioners in disaster risk management. Furthermore, there is an increasing demand from users to integrate flood early warning systems with risk based forecasting, combining streamflow estimations with expected inundated areas and flood impacts. Finally, emerging technologies such as crowdsourcing and social media monitoring can play a crucial role in flood disaster management and preparedness. Here, we present some recent advances of an experimental procedure for near-real time flood mapping and impact assessment. The procedure translates in near real-time the daily streamflow forecasts issued by the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) into event-based flood hazard maps, which are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information at global scale to derive risk forecast. Impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in terms of flood prone areas, potential economic damage, and affected population, infrastructures and cities. To increase the reliability of our forecasts we propose the integration of model-based estimations with an innovative methodology for social media monitoring, which allows for real-time verification and correction of impact forecasts. Finally, we present the results of preliminary tests which show the potential of the proposed procedure in supporting emergency response and management.

  9. Impact of scatterometer wind (ASCAT-A/B) data assimilation on semi real-time forecast system at KIAPS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, H. J.; Kang, J. H.

    2016-12-01

    Since Jul. 2015, KIAPS (Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems) has been performing the semi real-time forecast system to assess the performance of their forecast system as a NWP model. KPOP (KIAPS Protocol for Observation Processing) is a part of KIAPS data assimilation system and has been performing well in KIAPS semi real-time forecast system. In this study, due to the fact that KPOP would be able to treat the scatterometer wind data, we analyze the effect of scatterometer wind (ASCAT-A/B) on KIAPS semi real-time forecast system. O-B global distribution and statistics of scatterometer wind give use two information which are the difference between background field and observation is not too large and KPOP processed the scatterometer wind data well. The changes of analysis increment because of O-B global distribution appear remarkably at the bottom of atmospheric field. It also shows that scatterometer wind data cover wide ocean where data would be able to short. Performance of scatterometer wind data can be checked through the vertical error reduction against IFS between background and analysis field and vertical statistics of O-A. By these analysis result, we can notice that scatterometer wind data will influence the positive effect on lower level performance of semi real-time forecast system at KIAPS. After, long-term result based on effect of scatterometer wind data will be analyzed.

  10. Technology Scaling Impact on Embedded ADC Design for Telecom Receivers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannik Hammel; Andreani, Pietro; Malcovati, Piero

    2005-01-01

    -frequency, medium-resolution applications. The design of a 10 bit 20 MS/s ADC using the successive approximation algorithm is presented in order to validate the presented concepts. By using a deep-submicron technology, the speed of the chosen architecture is pushed to meet the desired output rate.......This paper is concerned with the impact of technology scaling on the choice of A/D converters in telecom receivers. It is shown that the trend of diminishing feature size, together with better matching of passive components, allows the use of A/D topologies traditionally confined to low...

  11. Views on the impact of HOST. [hot section technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esgar, J. B.; Sokolowski, D. E.

    1988-01-01

    The Hot Section Technology (HOST) Project, which was initiated by NASA Lewis Research Center in 1980 and concluded in 1987, was aimed at improving advanced aircraft engine hot section durability through better technical understanding and more accurate design analysis capability. The project was a multidisciplinary, multiorganizational, focused research effort that involved 21 organizations and 70 research and technology activities and generated approximately 250 research reports. No major hardware was developed. To evaluate whether HOST had a significant impact on the overall aircraft engine industry in the development of new engines, interviews were conducted with 41 participants in the project to obtain their views. The summarized results of these interviews are presented.

  12. The impact of information technology on the practice of ophthalmology.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prasad Somdutt

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available Information technology has had a tremendous impact on the outlook of our professional lives. The Internet has revolutionised the speed of access to information with touch of a button. This article discusses the various aspects of information technology which are changing and enhancing our professional lives. It provides tips to enable the busy practising clinician to use the available resources effectively. Problems such as reliability of information on the web and how to assess the quality of such matter are also discussed.

  13. The case for better PV forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alet, Pierre-Jean; Efthymiou, Venizelos; Graditi, Giorgio

    2016-01-01

    Rising levels of PV penetration mean increasingly sophisticated forecasting technologies are needed to maintain grid stability and maximise the economic value of PV systems. The Grid Integration working group of the European Technology and Innovation Platform – Photovoltaics (ETIP PV) shares...... the results of its ongoing research into the advantages and limitations of current forecasting technologies....

  14. Information Technology and Telecommunications: Impacts on Strategic Alliance

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张延峰; 刘益; 李垣

    2002-01-01

    Strategic alliance (SA) is an important way with which the enterprise can grow up. However, the development of information technology and telecommunications (IT&Ts) has vital impacts on the theory and practice of SA management. This paper analyzes these impacts from four respects: the management thinking, forming, inter-organizational interaction, information exchange and knowledge transferring of SA. We point out the new characteristics of SA management in the information age and then put forward corresponding countermeasures on the basic of analyzing current alliance management theory and issue. Finally we discuss some issues that would be researched further in the future.

  15. Impact of information technology on human resources in healthcare.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anvari, Mehran

    2007-01-01

    Incorporation of advances in information communications technology (ICT) into the workplace has had a major impact in human resource utilization in sectors of the economy where it has occurred in a substantial manner, such as manufacturing and financial services. While some benefits of ICT have been realized in healthcare, the full impact of its benefits will only be realized if it is incorporated in a systematic form, rather than in the current patchy and uneven manner seen around the province and across the country to date.

  16. Space Weather Forecasting: An Enigma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sojka, J. J.

    2012-12-01

    The space age began in earnest on October 4, 1957 with the launch of Sputnik 1 and was fuelled for over a decade by very strong national societal concerns. Prior to this single event the adverse effects of space weather had been registered on telegraph lines as well as interference on early WWII radar systems, while for countless eons the beauty of space weather as mid-latitude auroral displays were much appreciated. These prior space weather impacts were in themselves only a low-level science puzzle pursued by a few dedicated researchers. The technology boost and innovation that the post Sputnik era generated has almost single handedly defined our present day societal technology infrastructure. During the decade following Neil's walk on the moon on July 21, 1969 an international thrust to understand the science of space, and its weather, was in progress. However, the search for scientific understand was parsed into independent "stove pipe" categories: The ionosphere-aeronomy, the magnetosphere, the heliosphere-sun. The present day scientific infrastructure of funding agencies, learned societies, and international organizations are still hampered by these 1960's logical divisions which today are outdated in the pursuit of understanding space weather. As this era of intensive and well funded scientific research progressed so did societies innovative uses for space technologies and space "spin-offs". Well over a decade ago leaders in technology, science, and the military realized that there was indeed an adverse side to space weather that with each passing year became more severe. In 1994 several U.S. agencies established the National Space Weather Program (NSWP) to focus scientific attention on the system wide issue of the adverse effects of space weather on society and its technologies. Indeed for the past two decades a significant fraction of the scientific community has actively engaged in understanding space weather and hence crossing the "stove

  17. Innovation Value of Information Technology: Impact of Information Technology--Intensity on Innovation Capability and Firm Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramamani, Mahesh Kumar

    2010-01-01

    Though information technology adoptions have been always referred to as innovations in firms, much of the business value literature has concentrated on the tangible and immediately measurable impacts of information technology (IT) adoptions. This study aims to explore the impact of information technology investments on the innovativeness of a…

  18. Impact of advanced technology microwave sounder data in the NCMRWF 4D-VAR data assimilation system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rani, S. Indira; Srinivas, D.; Mallick, Swapan; George, John P.

    2016-05-01

    This study demonstrates the added benefits of assimilating the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) radiances from the Suomi-NPP satellite in the NCMRWF Unified Model (NCUM). ATMS is a cross-track scanning microwave radiometer inherited the legacy of two very successful instrument namely, Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A) and Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS). ATMS has 22 channels: 11 temperature sounding channels around 50-60 GHz oxygen band and 6 moisture sounding channels around the 183GHz water vapour band in addition to 5 channels sensitive to the surface in clear conditions, or to water vapour, rain, and cloud when conditions are not clear (at 23, 31, 50, 51 and 89 GHz). Before operational assimilation of any new observation by NWP centres it is standard practice to assess data quality with respect to NWP model background (short-forecast) fields. Quality of all channels is estimated against the model background and the biases are computed and compared against that from the similar observations. The impact of the ATMS data on global analyses and forecasts is tested by adding the ATMS data in the NCUM Observation Processing system (OPS) and 4D-Var variational assimilation (VAR) system. This paper also discusses the pre-operational numerical experiments conducted to assess the impact of ATMS radiances in the NCUM assimilation system. It is noted that the performance of ATMS is stable and it contributes to the performance of the model, complimenting observations from other instruments.

  19. The Impact of Technological Research Through an Analysis of Literature

    CERN Document Server

    Basaglia, Tullio; Dressendorfer, Paul; Pia, Maria Grazia

    2009-01-01

    A set of patterns related to the impact factor of technological journals has been analyzed, with emphasis on radiation instrumentation and medical physics publications. Attention was devoted in particular to two IEEE journals, IEEE Transactions on Nuclear Science and IEEE Transactions on Medical Imaging, representative of these categories. The results are compared to a similar survey of particle physics journals. The weight of citations coming from inside the same subject area has been evaluated with respect to the amount of citations deriving from publications in external domains. A preliminary analysis hints to a significant degree of correlation between a high impact factor of some journals and a large fraction of citations originating from the same field. The results highlight the cross-disciplinary role of technological journals.

  20. Synthetic fuels technology overview with health and environmental impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bentz, E. J., Jr.; Salmon, E. J.

    1981-06-01

    An introduction is presented to the following synthetic fuels technologies: (1) the Lurgi gasification of coal; (2) the Fischer-Tropsch liquefaction of coal; (3) coal-methanol conversion; (4) donor solvent gas liquefaction; (5) Tosco surface shale retorting; ethanol production from coal; and (6) the coal-methanol-gasoline conversion process. After establishing the system characteristics of these six technologies, consideration is given to their potential major health, safety, environmental and socio-economic impacts at the global, regional and local levels. It is determined that the main global consequence of synfuels development is climate modification, to which may be added the regional impact of dry and wet deposition of gaseous and particulate pollutants, and land and water quality deterioration due to soil erosion at the local level.

  1. The economic impact of future biological nitrogen fixation technologies

    OpenAIRE

    Tauer, Loren W.

    1988-01-01

    The economic impact of some future biological nitrogen fixation technologies are estimated using AGSIM, a dynamic, partial equilibrium, econometric model of the U.S. agricultural sector. Five separate scenarios were modeled: (1) legumes fix more nitrogen, (2) legumes fix more nitrogen with an increase in legumes yields of 10 percent, (3) nitrogen fertilization requirements on all crops are reduced 50 percent with no yield changes, (4) total elimination of nitrogen fertilization and (5) total ...

  2. Evaluating NASA Technology Programs in Terms of Private Sector Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenberg, J. S.

    1984-01-01

    NASA is currently developing spacecraft technology for application to NASA scientific missions, military missions and commercial missions which are part of or form the basis of private sector business ventures. The justification of R&D programs that lead to spacecraft technology improvements encompasses the establishment of the benefits in terms of improved scientific knowledge that may result from new and/or improved NASA science missions, improved cost effectiveness of NASA and DOD missions and new or improved services that may be offered by the private sector (for example communications satellite services). It is with the latter of these areas that attention will be focused upon. In particular, it is of interest to establish the economic value of spacecraft technology improvements to private sector communications satellite business ventures. It is proposed to assess the value of spacecraft technology improvements in terms of the changes in cash flow and present value of cash flows, that may result from the use of new and/or improved spacecraft technology for specific types of private sector communications satellite missions (for example domestic point-to-point communication or direct broadcasting). To accomplish this it is necessary to place the new and/or improved technology within typical business scenarios and estimate the impacts of technical performance upon business and financial performance.

  3. Strategic Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this article is to present an overview of the area of strategic forecasting and its research directions and to put forward some ideas for improving management decisions. Design/methodology/approach: This article is conceptual but also informed by the author’s long contact...... and collaboration with various business firms. It starts by presenting an overview of the area and argues that the area is as much a way of thinking as a toolbox of theories and methodologies. It then spells out a number of research directions and ideas for management. Findings: Strategic forecasting is seen...... as a rebirth of long range planning, albeit with new methods and theories. Firms should make the building of strategic forecasting capability a priority. Research limitations/implications: The article subdivides strategic forecasting into three research avenues and suggests avenues for further research efforts...

  4. Exposure Forecaster

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Exposure Forecaster Database (ExpoCastDB) is EPA's database for aggregating chemical exposure information and can be used to help with chemical exposure...

  5. Forecasting Winter Storms in the Sierra: A Social Science Perspective in Keeping the Public Safe without Negatively Impacting the Local Tourism Industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milne, R.; Wallmann, J.; Myrick, D. T.

    2010-12-01

    The National Weather Service Office in Reno is responsible for issuing Blizzard Warnings, Winter Storm Warnings, and Winter Weather Advisories for the Sierra, including the Lake Tahoe Basin and heavily traveled routes such as Interstate 80, Highway 395 and Highway 50. These forecast products prepare motorists for harsh travel conditions as well as those venturing into the backcountry, which are essential to the NWS mission of saving lives and property. During the winter season, millions of people from around the world visit the numerous world class ski resorts in the Sierra and the Lake Tahoe Basin, which is vital to the local economy. This situation creates a challenging decision for the forecasters to provide appropriate wording in winter statements to keep the public safe, without significantly impacting the local tourism-based economy. Numerous text and graphical products, including online weather briefings, are utilized by NWS Reno to highlight hazards in ensuring the public, businesses, and other government agencies are prepared for winter storms and take appropriate safety measures. The effectiveness of these product types will be explored, with past snowstorms used as examples to show how forecasters determine which type of text or graphical product is most appropriate to convey the hazardous weather threats.

  6. Impact of Aging and Cognition on Hearing Assistive Technology Use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jorgensen, Lindsey E; Messersmith, Jessica J

    2015-08-01

    Many factors go into appropriate recommendation and use of hearing assistive technology (HAT). The aging auditory system presents with its own complications and intricacies; there are many types of age-related hearing loss, and it is possible that the underlying cause of hearing loss can significantly impact the recommendations and performance with HATs. The audiologist should take into consideration peripheral and central auditory function when selecting HATs for the aging adult population as well as when selecting appropriate types of technology including personal sound amplification products, hearing aids, cochlear implants, and other assistive technology. The cognitive ability of the patient plays a central role in the recommendations of HAT. It is possible that the use of HATs could mitigate some of the effects of cognitive decline and thus should be considered as early as possible. Assessment of ability and appropriate recommendations are crucial to consistent use of HAT devices.

  7. Aerosol optical depth assimilation for a size-resolved sectional model: impacts of observationally constrained, multi-wavelength and fine mode retrievals on regional scale analyses and forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saide, P. E.; Carmichael, G. R.; Liu, Z.; Schwartz, C. S.; Lin, H. C.; da Silva, A. M.; Hyer, E.

    2013-10-01

    An aerosol optical depth (AOD) three-dimensional variational data assimilation technique is developed for the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) system for which WRF-Chem forecasts are performed with a detailed sectional model, the Model for Simulating Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry (MOSAIC). Within GSI, forward AOD and adjoint sensitivities are performed using Mie computations from the WRF-Chem optical properties module, providing consistency with the forecast. GSI tools such as recursive filters and weak constraints are used to provide correlation within aerosol size bins and upper and lower bounds for the optimization. The system is used to perform assimilation experiments with fine vertical structure and no data thinning or re-gridding on a 12 km horizontal grid over the region of California, USA, where improvements on analyses and forecasts is demonstrated. A first set of simulations was performed, comparing the assimilation impacts of using the operational MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) dark target retrievals to those using observationally constrained ones, i.e., calibrated with AERONET (Aerosol RObotic NETwork) data. It was found that using the observationally constrained retrievals produced the best results when evaluated against ground based monitors, with the error in PM2.5 predictions reduced at over 90% of the stations and AOD errors reduced at 100% of the monitors, along with larger overall error reductions when grouping all sites. A second set of experiments reveals that the use of fine mode fraction AOD and ocean multi-wavelength retrievals can improve the representation of the aerosol size distribution, while assimilating only 550 nm AOD retrievals produces no or at times degraded impact. While assimilation of multi-wavelength AOD shows positive impacts on all analyses performed, future work is needed to generate observationally constrained multi-wavelength retrievals, which when assimilated will generate size

  8. Energy Sources Management and Future Automotive Technologies: Environmental Impact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florin Mariasiu

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the environmental impact created through the introduction of introducing new technologies in transportation domain. New electric vehicles are considered zero-emission vehicles (ZEV. However, electricity produced in power plants is still predominantly based on fossil fuel usage (required for recharge electric vehicle batteries and thus directly affects the quantity of pollutant emissions and greenhouse gases (CO2, NOx and SOx. Given the structure of EU-wide energy sources used for electricity generation, the potential pollutant emissions stemming from these energy sources, related to energy consumption of an electric vehicle, was determined under the projected environmental impact of specific market penetration of electric vehicles. In addition to the overall impact at the EU level, were identified the countries for which the use of electric vehicles is (or not feasible in terms of reaching the lower values ​​of future emissions compared to the present and future European standards.

  9. Towards Energy Efficiency: Forecasting Indoor Temperature via Multivariate Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Pardo

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The small medium large system (SMLsystem is a house built at the Universidad CEU Cardenal Herrera (CEU-UCH for participation in the Solar Decathlon 2013 competition. Several technologies have been integrated to reduce power consumption. One of these is a forecasting system based on artificial neural networks (ANNs, which is able to predict indoor temperature in the near future using captured data by a complex monitoring system as the input. A study of the impact on forecasting performance of different covariate combinations is presented in this paper. Additionally, a comparison of ANNs with the standard statistical forecasting methods is shown. The research in this paper has been focused on forecasting the indoor temperature of a house, as it is directly related to HVAC—heating, ventilation and air conditioning—system consumption. HVAC systems at the SMLsystem house represent 53:89% of the overall power consumption. The energy used to maintain temperature was measured to be 30%–38:9% of the energy needed to lower it. Hence, these forecasting measures allow the house to adapt itself to future temperature conditions by using home automation in an energy-efficient manner. Experimental results show a high forecasting accuracy and therefore, they might be used to efficiently control an HVAC system.

  10. Forecasting the solar activity cycle: new insights

    CERN Document Server

    Nandy, Dibyendu

    2013-01-01

    Having advanced knowledge of solar activity is important because the Sun's magnetic output governs space weather and impacts technologies reliant on space. However, the irregular nature of the solar cycle makes solar activity predictions a challenging task. This is best achieved through appropriately constrained solar dynamo simulations and as such the first step towards predictions is to understand the underlying physics of the solar dynamo mechanism. In Babcock-Leighton type dynamo models, the poloidal field is generated near the solar surface whereas the toroidal field is generated in the solar interior. Therefore a finite time is necessary for the coupling of the spatially segregated source layers of the dynamo. This time delay introduces a memory in the dynamo mechanism which allows forecasting of future solar activity. Here we discuss how this forecasting ability of the solar cycle is affected by downward turbulent pumping of magnetic flux. With significant turbulent pumping the memory of the dynamo is ...

  11. R&D Advancement, Technology Diffusion, and Impact on Evaluation of Public R&D

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moore, M. C. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Arent, D. J. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Norland, D. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2005-01-01

    In a 2001 report titled "Research at DOE: Was It Worth It?", a National Research Council (NRC) committee defined a set of simplifying rules to estimate the net economic benefits from technologies supported by the Department of Energy (DOE). This NREL paper evaluates the efficacy of the NRC rules compared to published literature on acceleration of technology introduction into markets, technology diffusion, and infrastructure change. It also offers considerations for revisions of the rules that call for the use of technology and sector-specific data, advanced forecasting techniques, and sensitivity analysis to test the robustness of the methodology.

  12. Foresight and Forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kilbourn, Kyle; Bay, Marie Brøndum

    In predicting areas of growth, public innovation projects may rely on optimistic visions of technology still in development as a way of ensuring novelty for funding. This paper explores what happens when forecasts of robotic technology meets the practice of sterile supply in a preliminary stage......, the most sustainable innovation stems from the dialogical interaction between practitioner foresight and societal forecasting, requiring continued development of participatory design as it moves into new contexts....... of an ongoing project. We examine the nature of participation in design on three levels: in the sterilization ward, this particular project and society in general. From our case, we suggest that while innovation projects proceeding from a certain technological perspective can succeed at building excitement...

  13. Effect of advanced aircraft noise reduction technology on the 1990 projected noise environment around Patrick Henry Airport. [development of noise exposure forecast contours for projected traffic volume and aircraft types

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cawthorn, J. M.; Brown, C. G.

    1974-01-01

    A study has been conducted of the future noise environment of Patric Henry Airport and its neighboring communities projected for the year 1990. An assessment was made of the impact of advanced noise reduction technologies which are currently being considered. These advanced technologies include a two-segment landing approach procedure and aircraft hardware modifications or retrofits which would add sound absorbent material in the nacelles of the engines or which would replace the present two- and three-stage fans with a single-stage fan of larger diameter. Noise Exposure Forecast (NEF) contours were computed for the baseline (nonretrofitted) aircraft for the projected traffic volume and fleet mix for the year 1990. These NEF contours are presented along with contours for a variety of retrofit options. Comparisons of the baseline with the noise reduction options are given in terms of total land area exposed to 30 and 40 NEF levels. Results are also presented of the effects on noise exposure area of the total number of daily operations.

  14. Bayesian flood forecasting methods: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Shasha; Coulibaly, Paulin

    2017-08-01

    Over the past few decades, floods have been seen as one of the most common and largely distributed natural disasters in the world. If floods could be accurately forecasted in advance, then their negative impacts could be greatly minimized. It is widely recognized that quantification and reduction of uncertainty associated with the hydrologic forecast is of great importance for flood estimation and rational decision making. Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) offers an ideal theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification that can be developed for probabilistic flood forecasting via any deterministic hydrologic model. It provides suitable theoretical structure, empirically validated models and reasonable analytic-numerical computation method, and can be developed into various Bayesian forecasting approaches. This paper presents a comprehensive review on Bayesian forecasting approaches applied in flood forecasting from 1999 till now. The review starts with an overview of fundamentals of BFS and recent advances in BFS, followed with BFS application in river stage forecasting and real-time flood forecasting, then move to a critical analysis by evaluating advantages and limitations of Bayesian forecasting methods and other predictive uncertainty assessment approaches in flood forecasting, and finally discusses the future research direction in Bayesian flood forecasting. Results show that the Bayesian flood forecasting approach is an effective and advanced way for flood estimation, it considers all sources of uncertainties and produces a predictive distribution of the river stage, river discharge or runoff, thus gives more accurate and reliable flood forecasts. Some emerging Bayesian forecasting methods (e.g. ensemble Bayesian forecasting system, Bayesian multi-model combination) were shown to overcome limitations of single model or fixed model weight and effectively reduce predictive uncertainty. In recent years, various Bayesian flood forecasting approaches have been

  15. Energy technology impacts on agriculture with a bibliography of models for impact assessment on crop ecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rupp, E.M.; Luxmoore, R.J.; Parzyck, D.C.

    1979-09-01

    Possible impacts of energy technologies on agriculture are evaluated, and some of the available simulation models that can be used for predictive purposes are identified. An overview of energy technologies and impacts on the environment is presented to provide a framework for the commentary on the models. Coal combustion is shown to have major impacts on the environment and these will continue into the next century according to current Department of Energy projections. Air pollution effects will thus remain as the major impacts on crop ecosystems. Two hundred reports were evaluated, representing a wide range of models increasing in complexity from mathematical functions (fitted to data) through parametric models (which represent phenomena without describing the mechanisms) to mechanistic models (based on physical, chemical, and physiological principles). Many models were viewed as suitable for adaptation to technology assessment through the incorporation of representative dose-response relationships. It is clear that in many cases available models cannot be taken and directly applied in technology assessment. Very few models of air pollutant-crop interactions were identified, even though there is a considerable data base of pollutant effects on crops.

  16. Forecasting metal prices: Do forecasters herd?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pierdzioch, C.; Rulke, J. C.; Stadtmann, G.

    2013-01-01

    We analyze more than 20,000 forecasts of nine metal prices at four different forecast horizons. We document that forecasts are heterogeneous and report that anti-herding appears to be a source of this heterogeneity. Forecaster anti-herding reflects strategic interactions among forecasters...

  17. Empathic forecasting : How do we predict other people's feelings?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pollmann, M.M.H.; Finkenauer, C.

    2009-01-01

    When making affective forecasts, people commit the impact bias. They overestimate the impact an emotional event has on their affective experience. In three studies we show that people also commit the impact bias when making empathic forecasts, affective forecasts for someone else. They overestimate

  18. ImSET: Impact of Sector Energy Technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roop, Joseph M.; Scott, Michael J.; Schultz, Robert W.

    2005-07-19

    This version of the Impact of Sector Energy Technologies (ImSET) model represents the ''next generation'' of the previously developed Visual Basic model (ImBUILD 2.0) that was developed in 2003 to estimate the macroeconomic impacts of energy-efficient technology in buildings. More specifically, a special-purpose version of the 1997 benchmark national Input-Output (I-O) model was designed specifically to estimate the national employment and income effects of the deployment of Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) -developed energy-saving technologies. In comparison with the previous versions of the model, this version allows for more complete and automated analysis of the essential features of energy efficiency investments in buildings, industry, transportation, and the electric power sectors. This version also incorporates improvements in the treatment of operations and maintenance costs, and improves the treatment of financing of investment options. ImSET is also easier to use than extant macroeconomic simulation models and incorporates information developed by each of the EERE offices as part of the requirements of the Government Performance and Results Act.

  19. Life cycle impact assessment of various waste conversion technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khoo, Hsien H

    2009-06-01

    Advanced thermal treatment technologies utilizing pyrolysis or gasification, as well as a combined approach, are introduced as sustainable methods to treat wastes in Singapore. Eight different technologies are evaluated: pyrolysis-gasification of MSW; pyrolysis of MSW; thermal cracking gasification of granulated MSW; combined pyrolysis, gasification and oxidation of MSW; steam gasification of wood; circulating fluidized bed (CFB) gasification of organic wastes; gasification of RDF; and the gasification of tyres. Life cycle assessment is carried out to determine the environmental impacts of the various waste conversion systems including global warming potential, acidification potential, terrestrial eutrophication and ozone photochemical formation. The normalization and weighting results, calculated according to Singapore national emission inventories, showed that the two highest impacts are from thermal cracking gasification of granulated MSW and the gasification of RDF; and the least are from the steam gasification of wood and the pyrolysis-gasification of MSW. A simplified life cycle cost comparison showed that the two most costs-effective waste conversion systems are the CFB gasification of organic waste and the combined pyrolysis, gasification and oxidation of MSW. The least favorable - highest environmental impact as well as highest costs - are the thermal cracking gasification of granulated MSW and the gasification of tyres.

  20. Ethical issues in forecasting of natural hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinti, Stefano

    2014-05-01

    Natural hazards have by definition a large impact on the society and, therefore, since the beginning of science one of the major aspiration of mankind has been the prediction of natural calamities in the attempt to avoid or to mitigate their effects. In modern societies where science and technology have gained a foundational role, forecasts and predictions have become part of the every-day life and may also influence state policies and economic development. And in parallel with the growing importance of forecasting, even ethical problems for forecasters and for forecasters communities have started to appear. In this work two of the many geo-ethical issues are considered mostly: 1) how to cope with uncertainties that are inherently associated with any forecast statement; 2) how to handle predictions in scientific journals and scientific conferences The former issue is mainly related to the impact of predictions on the general public and on managers and operators in the civil protection field. Forecasters operate in specific contexts that 1) may change from country to country, depending on the local adopted best practices, but also, which is more constraining, on the local legal regulations and laws; 2) may change from discipline to discipline according to the development of the specific knowhow and the range of the forecast (from minutes to centuries) The second issue has to do with the communication of the scientific results on predictions and on prediction methods to the audience mainly composed of scientists, and involves one of the basic elements of science. In principle, scientists should use scientific communication means (papers in scientific journals, conferences, …) to illustrate results that are sound and certain, or the methods by means of which they conduct their research. But scientists involved in predictions have inherently to do with uncertainties, and, since there is no common agreement on how to deal with them, there is the risk that scientific

  1. Interactive Forecasting with the National Weather Service River Forecast System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, George F.; Page, Donna

    1993-01-01

    The National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) consists of several major hydrometeorologic subcomponents to model the physics of the flow of water through the hydrologic cycle. The entire NWSRFS currently runs in both mainframe and minicomputer environments, using command oriented text input to control the system computations. As computationally powerful and graphically sophisticated scientific workstations became available, the National Weather Service (NWS) recognized that a graphically based, interactive environment would enhance the accuracy and timeliness of NWS river and flood forecasts. Consequently, the operational forecasting portion of the NWSRFS has been ported to run under a UNIX operating system, with X windows as the display environment on a system of networked scientific workstations. In addition, the NWSRFS Interactive Forecast Program was developed to provide a graphical user interface to allow the forecaster to control NWSRFS program flow and to make adjustments to forecasts as necessary. The potential market for water resources forecasting is immense and largely untapped. Any private company able to market the river forecasting technologies currently developed by the NWS Office of Hydrology could provide benefits to many information users and profit from providing these services.

  2. The Environmental Impact of Advanced Manufacturing Technologies: Examples from Hungary

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Szalavetz

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the paper is to demonstrate the beneficial impact of advanced manufacturing technologies (AMT on firms’ environmental performance. Drawing on interviews conducted with 16 Hungarian manufacturing subsidiaries on their experience with AMT, we find three functional areas, where industry 4.0 solutions can not only enhance operational excellence and cost-efficiency, but they can also improve eco-efficiency, but they can also improve eco-efficiency, namely in the field of quality management (through smart production control, data analytics and predictive modelling solutions; process optimization (through capacity planning and production scheduling solutions; and product and process engineering (through advanced virtual technologies. We also find that AMT adoption facilitated subsidiary upgrading along various dimensions. The main managerial implication is that subsidiaries need to be proactive, and emphasize also the benefits stemming from energy and resource efficiency improvement when lobbying for investment in AMT.

  3. Coronary Stents: The Impact of Technological Advances on Clinical Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mennuni, Marco G; Pagnotta, Paolo A; Stefanini, Giulio G

    2016-02-01

    Percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI) were proposed in the late 1970s as an alternative to surgical coronary artery bypass grafting for the treatment of coronary artery disease. Important technological progress has been made since. Balloon angioplasty was replaced by bare metal stents, which allowed to permanently scaffold the coronary vessel avoiding acute recoil and abrupt occlusion. Thereafter, the introduction of early generation drug-eluting stents (DES) has significantly improved clinical outcomes, primarily by markedly reducing the risk of restenosis. New generation DES with thinner stent struts, novel durable or biodegradable polymer coatings, and new limus antiproliferative agents, have further improved upon the safety and efficacy profile of early generation DES. The present article aims to review the impact of technological advances on clinical outcomes in the field of PCI with coronary stents, and to provide a brief overview on clinical margins of improvement and unmet needs of available DES.

  4. Supertall Asia/Middle East: Technological Responses and Contextual Impacts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyoung Sun Moon

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Supported by rapid economic growth, major cities in Asia and the Middle East have been rising as new centers for tall buildings. This article reviews the state of tall building developments in Asian and Middle Eastern countries with an emphasis on supertall buildings, with their greater urban and global impacts. Focusing primarily on physical construction, this article examines technological responses for building tall in Asian and Middle Eastern contexts. The architectural transformation and globalization of what was once called the “American Building Type” in Asian and Middle Eastern countries is studied. Sustainable design technology transfer and adjustment in Asian and Middle Eastern climates are presented. Further, future prospects on supertall design in Asian and Middle Eastern contexts are discussed.

  5. The Impact of Technology on Student Perceptions of Instructor Comments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Yearwood

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The lack of writing skill among college graduates is often blamed on poor teaching, or alternatively, failure on the part of schools and instructors to teach the basic grammar and punctuation skills that employers remember learning in their own school years. While it may be true that teaching techniques and course content have changed over the years, a far greater cause of student inability to write clearly may be students’ negative perceptions of instructor comments. If this is indeed the case, as borne out in some earlier studies by Bardine, then how might students who grew up in a digital era view electronic comments? The prevalence of technological tools to make electronic notations increases readability, but what impact might instructors’ use of technology in making comments have on tone, completeness, and length of comments when viewed through the lens of the student writer?

  6. Impact of animal manure separation technologies on steroid hormone distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Martin; Popovic, Olga; Björklund, Erland

    2015-01-01

    When steroid hormones are emitted into the environment, they may have harmful effects on the reproduction system of aquatic life. Until now, research has primarily focused on human excretion, demonstrating that steroid hormones reach the aquatic environment due to insufficient removal in waste...... in the vertebrate steroidogenesis, may occur at substantial levels in animal manure and should be addressed. In agricultural practices the animal manure can be applied to the soil as raw manure, but also as a solid or liquid manure fraction, since current livestock production facilities utilizes a recently...... developed technology, which separates raw animal manure into a solid and a liquid fraction. This technology offers an improved handling and refined distribution of the manure nutrients to the farmlands and the possibility to reduce the environmental impact of manure nutrients, especially avoiding...

  7. Transport composite fuselage technology: Impact dynamics and acoustic transmission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, A. C.; Balena, F. J.; Labarge, W. L.; Pei, G.; Pitman, W. A.; Wittlin, G.

    1986-01-01

    A program was performed to develop and demonstrate the impact dynamics and acoustic transmission technology for a composite fuselage which meets the design requirements of a 1990 large transport aircraft without substantial weight and cost penalties. The program developed the analytical methodology for the prediction of acoustic transmission behavior of advanced composite stiffened shell structures. The methodology predicted that the interior noise level in a composite fuselage due to turbulent boundary layer will be less than in a comparable aluminum fuselage. The verification of these analyses will be performed by NASA Langley Research Center using a composite fuselage shell fabricated by filament winding. The program also developed analytical methodology for the prediction of the impact dynamics behavior of lower fuselage structure constructed with composite materials. Development tests were performed to demonstrate that the composite structure designed to the same operating load requirement can have at least the same energy absorption capability as aluminum structure.

  8. The Apple Phenomenon: the Impact of Modern Technologies on Subject

    OpenAIRE

    Kuldová, Michaela

    2013-01-01

    The Apple Phenomenon: the Impact of Modern Technologies on Subject Abstract The goal of the submitted thesis is the study of the company Apple Inc. in the context of how it is percieved by subjects. After a brief introduction of the company Apple Inc. we will focus on semiotic analysis of the brand Apple, its products and marketing strategies. The object of study will be also a present society, whose distinguishing feature is a consumption, and brand perception of a subject in connection with...

  9. Impact of active controls technology on structural integrity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noll, Thomas; Austin, Edward; Donley, Shawn; Graham, George; Harris, Terry

    1991-01-01

    This paper summarizes the findings of The Technical Cooperation Program to assess the impact of active controls technology on the structural integrity of aeronautical vehicles and to evaluate the present state-of-the-art for predicting the loads caused by a flight-control system modification and the resulting change in the fatigue life of the flight vehicle. The potential for active controls to adversely affect structural integrity is described, and load predictions obtained using two state-of-the-art analytical methods are given.

  10. Forecasting the impact of global changes on the water resources of a mountainous catchment in the Chilean Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruelland, D.; Campéon, C.; Dezetter, A.; Jourde, H.

    2012-04-01

    This study aims to simulate the complex interrelationships between climate forcing, human pressure and dynamics of groundwater and surface water of the upper Elqui catchment (5 660 km2) in the Chilean Andes. The water resources of this mountainous, semi-arid catchment has been undergoing a growing pressure because of high climate variability and of the economic mutations of various sectors (agriculture, tourism), which have impacted water availability of the area. Due to the agriculture-based development in the region, water scarcity is thus a matter of great concern for this basin. Hydrological simulations were performed with a conceptual model that takes into account a shallow reservoir supplied by precipitation and feeding evapotranspiration, surface/sub-surface runoff and infiltration, and (ii) a deep reservoir fed by infiltration and generating the baseflow. A third reservoir, in which fluxes are controlled by temperature, has been introduced to account for the snowmelt regime of the catchment. A 30-year period (1979-2008) was chosen to capture long-term hydro-climatic variability due to alternating ENSO and LNSO events. Then water uses (dam functioning, agricultural and domestic withdrawals) were integrated into the model. The model was calibrated and validated with streamflow data on the basis of a multi-objective function that aggregates a variety of goodness-of-fit criteria. Prospective climatic and anthropogenic scenarios were finally elaborated and forced into the model in order to propose midterm (2050 horizon) simulations. The model correctly reproduces the observed discharge at the basin outlet. Depending on the modelling complexity, NSE coefficients are about 0.82-0.90 over the calibration period (1979-1990) and 0.78-0.84 over the validation period (1991-2008). The volume error between observation and simulation is lower than 15% over the whole period studied. The dynamics of both the water level in the deep conceptual reservoir and the water table

  11. Uncertainty quantification and reliability assessment in operational oil spill forecast modeling system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Xianlong; Hodges, Ben R; Feng, Dongyu; Liu, Qixiao

    2017-03-15

    As oil transport increasing in the Texas bays, greater risks of ship collisions will become a challenge, yielding oil spill accidents as a consequence. To minimize the ecological damage and optimize rapid response, emergency managers need to be informed with how fast and where oil will spread as soon as possible after a spill. The state-of-the-art operational oil spill forecast modeling system improves the oil spill response into a new stage. However uncertainty due to predicted data inputs often elicits compromise on the reliability of the forecast result, leading to misdirection in contingency planning. Thus understanding the forecast uncertainty and reliability become significant. In this paper, Monte Carlo simulation is implemented to provide parameters to generate forecast probability maps. The oil spill forecast uncertainty is thus quantified by comparing the forecast probability map and the associated hindcast simulation. A HyosPy-based simple statistic model is developed to assess the reliability of an oil spill forecast in term of belief degree. The technologies developed in this study create a prototype for uncertainty and reliability analysis in numerical oil spill forecast modeling system, providing emergency managers to improve the capability of real time operational oil spill response and impact assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Impact of the GeneXpert MTB/RIF Technology on Tuberculosis Control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevens, Wendy Susan; Scott, Lesley; Noble, Lara; Gous, Natasha; Dheda, Keertan

    2017-01-01

    Molecular technology revolutionized the diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB) with a paradigm shift to faster, more sensitive, clinically relevant patient care. The most recent molecular leader is the GeneXpert MTB/RIF assay (Xpert) (Cepheid, Sunnyvale, CA), which was endorsed by the World Health Organization with unprecedented speed in December 2010 as the initial diagnostic for detection of HIV-associated TB and for where high rates of drug resistance are suspected. South Africa elected to take an aggressive smear replacement approach to facilitate earlier diagnosis and treatment through the decision to implement the Xpert assay nationally in March 2011, against the backdrop of approximately 6.3 million HIV-infected individuals, one of highest global TB and HIV coinfection rates, no available implementation models, uncertainties around field performance and program costs, and lack of guidance on how to operationalize the assay into existing complex clinical algorithms. South Africa's national implementation was conducted as a phased, forecasted, and managed approach (March 2011 to September 2013), through political will and both treasury-funded and donor-funded support. Today there are 314 GeneXperts across 207 microscopy centers; over 8 million assays have been conducted, and South Africa accounts for over half the global test cartridge usage. As with any implementation of new technology, challenges were encountered, both predicted and unexpected. This chapter discusses the challenges and consequences of such large-scale implementation efforts, the opportunities for new innovations, and the need to strengthen health systems, as well as the impact of the Xpert assay on rifampin-sensitive and multidrug-resistant TB patient care that translated into global TB control as we move toward the sustainable development goals.

  13. Scaling Impacts in Life Support Architecture and Technology Selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lange, Kevin

    2016-01-01

    For long-duration space missions outside of Earth orbit, reliability considerations will drive higher levels of redundancy and/or on-board spares for life support equipment. Component scaling will be a critical element in minimizing overall launch mass while maintaining an acceptable level of system reliability. Building on an earlier reliability study (AIAA 2012-3491), this paper considers the impact of alternative scaling approaches, including the design of technology assemblies and their individual components to maximum, nominal, survival, or other fractional requirements. The optimal level of life support system closure is evaluated for deep-space missions of varying duration using equivalent system mass (ESM) as the comparative basis. Reliability impacts are included in ESM by estimating the number of component spares required to meet a target system reliability. Common cause failures are included in the analysis. ISS and ISS-derived life support technologies are considered along with selected alternatives. This study focusses on minimizing launch mass, which may be enabling for deep-space missions.

  14. Investigation of a hydraulic impact: a technology in rock breaking

    CERN Document Server

    Genet, Martin; Tran-Cong, Thanh

    2009-01-01

    The finite element method and dimensional analysis have been applied in the present paper to study a hydraulic impact, which is utilized in a non-explosive rock breaking technology in mining industry. The impact process of a high speed piston on liquid water, previously introduced in a borehole drilled in rock, is numerically simulated. The research is focused on the influences of all the parameters involved in the technology on the largest principal stress in the rock, which is considered as one of the key factors to break the rock. Our detailed parametric investigation reveals that the variation of the isotropic rock material properties, especially its density, has no significant influence on the largest principal stress. The influences of the depth of the hole and the depth of the water column are also very small. On the other hand, increasing the initial kinetic energy of the piston can dramatically increase the largest principal stress and the best way to increase the initial kinetic energy of the piston...

  15. General forecasting correcting formula

    OpenAIRE

    Harin, Alexander

    2009-01-01

    A general forecasting correcting formula, as a framework for long-use and standardized forecasts, is created. The formula provides new forecasting resources and new possibilities for expansion of forecasting including economic forecasting into the areas of municipal needs, middle-size and small-size business and, even, to individual forecasting.

  16. General forecasting correcting formula

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    A general forecasting correcting formula, as a framework for long-use and standardized forecasts, is created. The formula provides new forecasting resources and new possibilities for expansion of forecasting including economic forecasting into the areas of municipal needs, middle-size and small-size business and, even, to individual forecasting.

  17. Information Forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanneman, Gerhard J.

    Information forecasting provides a means of anticipating future message needs of a society or predicting the necessary types of information that will allow smooth social functioning. Periods of unrest and uncertainty in societies contribute to "societal information overload," whereby an abundance of information channels can create communication…

  18. Impacts of intra-seasonal agricultural decision-making and forecast information on maize production in Zambia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, D.; Estes, L. D.; Evans, T. P.; Caylor, K. K.; Sheffield, J.; Wood, E. F.

    2015-12-01

    Maize is the most important food staple in sub-Saharan Africa. Climate change and rainfall variability pose great risks on maize production in this region. Intra-seasonal adaptive management combined with more skillful weather forecasts has the potential to improve the resilience of agricultural systems. Our aim is to understand the extent to which within-season agricultural management decisions can mitigate weather risks to maize production, and the degree to which this mitigation varies as a function of when the decision is made and the trajectory of weather. Using Zambia as a test case, we conducted crop-modeling experiments to determine which crop and water management decisions (typical of smallholder farmers) are most effective in mitigating rainfall-driven yield reductions under three precipitation scenarios (below normal, normal, and above normal). Yields were simulated using the DSSAT CERES-Maize model driven by an ensemble of historical weather data. Potential maize yields under different management options were simulated from different forecast points during the growing season, starting at planting and then in successive two-week intervals through the grain-filling period. The yield distributions were constructed as a function of the weather conditions and the management options, with results indicating which decision options provide the most mitigation in relation to a) the particular point in the growing season at which they are made, and b) the potential rainfall scenario. This study will help to understand how smallholder farmers in semi-arid systems may increase their resilience to highly variable weather by using typical within-season management options, and which decisions are most robust to forecast uncertainty.

  19. Needed Actions within Defense Acquisitions Based on a Forecast of Future Mobile Information and Communications Technologies Deployed in Austere Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-01

    almost autonomously by interacting within its environment without human intervention (Gorcin & Arslan, 2008). Accordingly, networks are increasingly...technology: The first technological steps-sharp edges, fire, the wheel -took tens of thousands of years. For people living in this era, there was...Keeney, S., McKenna, H. (2000). Research Guidelines for the Delphi Survey Technique. Journal of Advanced Nursing , 32(4), 1008-1015. Hasson, F

  20. Lignocellulosic ethanol: Technology design and its impact on process efficiency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paulova, Leona; Patakova, Petra; Branska, Barbora; Rychtera, Mojmir; Melzoch, Karel

    2015-11-01

    This review provides current information on the production of ethanol from lignocellulosic biomass, with the main focus on relationships between process design and efficiency, expressed as ethanol concentration, yield and productivity. In spite of unquestionable advantages of lignocellulosic biomass as a feedstock for ethanol production (availability, price, non-competitiveness with food, waste material), many technological bottlenecks hinder its wide industrial application and competitiveness with 1st generation ethanol production. Among the main technological challenges are the recalcitrant structure of the material, and thus the need for extensive pretreatment (usually physico-chemical followed by enzymatic hydrolysis) to yield fermentable sugars, and a relatively low concentration of monosaccharides in the medium that hinder the achievement of ethanol concentrations comparable with those obtained using 1st generation feedstocks (e.g. corn or molasses). The presence of both pentose and hexose sugars in the fermentation broth, the price of cellulolytic enzymes, and the presence of toxic compounds that can inhibit cellulolytic enzymes and microbial producers of ethanol are major issues. In this review, different process configurations of the main technological steps (enzymatic hydrolysis, fermentation of hexose/and or pentose sugars) are discussed and their efficiencies are compared. The main features, benefits and drawbacks of simultaneous saccharification and fermentation (SSF), simultaneous saccharification and fermentation with delayed inoculation (dSSF), consolidated bioprocesses (CBP) combining production of cellulolytic enzymes, hydrolysis of biomass and fermentation into one step, together with an approach combining utilization of both pentose and hexose sugars are discussed and compared with separate hydrolysis and fermentation (SHF) processes. The impact of individual technological steps on final process efficiency is emphasized and the potential for use

  1. Surface Pressure Dependencies in the GEOS-Chem-Adjoint System and the Impact of the GEOS-5 Surface Pressure on CO2 Model Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Meemong; Weidner, Richard

    2016-01-01

    In the GEOS-Chem Adjoint (GCA) system, the total (wet) surface pressure of the GEOS meteorology is employed as dry surface pressure, ignoring the presence of water vapor. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) research team has been evaluating the impact of the above discrepancy on the CO2 model forecast and the CO2 flux inversion. The JPL CMS research utilizes a multi-mission assimilation framework developed by the Multi-Mission Observation Operator (M2O2) research team at JPL extending the GCA system. The GCA-M2O2 framework facilitates mission-generic 3D and 4D-variational assimilations streamlining the interfaces to the satellite data products and prior emission inventories. The GCA-M2O2 framework currently integrates the GCA system version 35h and provides a dry surface pressure setup to allow the CO2 model forecast to be performed with the GEOS-5 surface pressure directly or after converting it to dry surface pressure.

  2. Overview of Space Weather, Space Weather Forecasts, and System Impacts During the High Activity from 19 October through 7 November 2003

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balch, C. C.; Crown, M. D.; Viereck, R.

    2004-05-01

    A remarkable interval of solar-geophysical activity occurred between 19 October and 7 November, 2003, including 17 major solar flares, six strong interplanetary shocks, six significant injections of energetic particles, and extreme levels of geomagnetic storming on 29 and 30 October. Among the more spectacular events were an X28 flare observed by the GOES XRS sensor on 4 November, which may be the highest ever recorded by GOES; a severe energetic particle event on 29 October, with peak fluxes making it the 4th highest observed in records going back to 1976; and an extreme geomagnetic storm which ranks as the 6th highest since 1932 based on the running Ap index. This interval provided unique challenges for space weather forecasting and nowcasting services and numerous system effects were reported. In this presentation we will provide some historical context for this activity, a discussion of the forecasts, warnings, and alerts that were issued, and we will cover some of the operational impacts of these space weather events.

  3. Impact of the initial specification of moisture and vertical motion on precipitation forecasts with a mesoscale model Implications for a satellite mesoscale data base

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mlynczak, Pamela E.; Houghton, David D.; Diak, George R.

    1986-01-01

    Using a numerical mesoscale model, four simulations were performed to determine the effects of suppressing the initial mesoscale information in the moisture and wind fields on the precipitation forecasts. The simulations included a control forecast 12-h simulation that began at 1200 GMT March 1982 and three experiment simulations with modifications to the moisture and vertical motion fields incorporated at 1800 GMT. The forecasts from 1800 GMT were compared to the second half of the control forecast. It was found that, compared to the control forecast, suppression of the moisture and/or wind initial field(s) produces a drier forecast. However, the characteristics of the precipitation forecasts of the experiments were not different enough to conclude that either mesoscale moisture or mesoscale vertical velocity at the initial time are more important for producing a forecast closer to that of the control.

  4. Low-Level Polarimetric Radar Signatures in EnKF Analyses and Forecasts of the May 8, 2003 Oklahoma City Tornadic Supercell: Impact of Multimoment Microphysics and Comparisons with Observation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel T. Dawson II

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The impact of increasing the number of predicted moments in a multimoment bulk microphysics scheme is investigated using ensemble Kalman filter analyses and forecasts of the May 8, 2003 Oklahoma City tornadic supercell storm and the analyses are validated using dual-polarization radar observations. The triple-moment version of the microphysics scheme exhibits the best performance, relative to the single- and double-moment versions, in reproducing the low-ZDR hail core and high-ZDR arc, as well as an improved probabilistic track forecast of the mesocyclone. A comparison of the impact of the improved microphysical scheme on probabilistic forecasts of the mesocyclone track with the observed tornado track is also discussed.

  5. Skillful seasonal forecasts of Arctic sea ice retreat and advance dates in a dynamical forecast system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sigmond, M.; Reader, M. C.; Flato, G. M.; Merryfield, W. J.; Tivy, A.

    2016-12-01

    The need for skillful seasonal forecasts of Arctic sea ice is rapidly increasing. Technology to perform such forecasts with coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice systems has only recently become available, with previous skill evaluations mainly limited to area-integrated quantities. Here we show, based on a large set of retrospective ensemble model forecasts, that a dynamical forecast system produces skillful seasonal forecasts of local sea ice retreat and advance dates - variables that are of great interest to a wide range of end users. Advance dates can generally be skillfully predicted at longer lead times ( 5 months on average) than retreat dates ( 3 months). The skill of retreat date forecasts mainly stems from persistence of initial sea ice anomalies, whereas advance date forecasts benefit from longer time scale and more predictable variability in ocean temperatures. These results suggest that further investments in the development of dynamical seasonal forecast systems may result in significant socioeconomic benefits.

  6. A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ross, M. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States)]|[Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics]|[Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.; Hwang, R. [Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States)

    1992-02-01

    The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model`s parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

  7. A model for Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ross, M. (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States) Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI (United States). Dept. of Physics Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.); Hwang, R. (Lawrence Berkeley Lab., CA (United States))

    1992-02-01

    The purpose of this report is to establish the content and structural validity of the Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model, and to provide estimates for the model's parameters. The model is intended to provide decision makers with a relatively simple, yet credible tool to forecast the impacts of policies which affect long-term energy demand in the manufacturing sector. Particular strengths of this model are its relative simplicity which facilitates both ease of use and understanding of results, and the inclusion of relevant causal relationships which provide useful policy handles. The modeling approach of LIEF is intermediate between top-down econometric modeling and bottom-up technology models. It relies on the following simple concept, that trends in aggregate energy demand are dependent upon the factors: (1) trends in total production; (2) sectoral or structural shift, that is, changes in the mix of industrial output from energy-intensive to energy non-intensive sectors; and (3) changes in real energy intensity due to technical change and energy-price effects as measured by the amount of energy used per unit of manufacturing output (KBtu per constant $ of output). The manufacturing sector is first disaggregated according to their historic output growth rates, energy intensities and recycling opportunities. Exogenous, macroeconomic forecasts of individual subsector growth rates and energy prices can then be combined with endogenous forecasts of real energy intensity trends to yield forecasts of overall energy demand. 75 refs.

  8. The potential impact of microgravity science and technology on education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wargo, M. J.

    1992-01-01

    The development of educational support materials by NASA's Microgravity Science and Applications Division is discussed in the light of two programs. Descriptions of the inception and application possibilities are given for the Microgravity-Science Teacher's Guide and the program of Undergraduate Research Opportunities in Microgravity Science and Technology. The guide is intended to introduce students to the principles and research efforts related to microgravity, and the undergraduate program is intended to reinforce interest in the space program. The use of computers and electronic communications is shown to be an important catalyst for the educational efforts. It is suggested that student and teacher access to these programs be enhanced so that they can have a broader impact on the educational development of space-related knowledge.

  9. Spermbots: potential impact for drug delivery and assisted reproductive technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magdanz, Veronika; Schmidt, Oliver G

    2014-08-01

    Micromotors and nanomotors are an emerging research field that aims at achieving locomotion on the microscale for a variety of applications such as drug delivery, single cell manipulation, microsensors and lab-on-a-chip devices, just to point out a few. The enthusiastic development of hybrid micromotors harnessing biological power sources for physiologically compatible nano/microdevices has recently brought a lot of attention to the international research community that is looking for a solution for the actuation and locomotion on the microscale. This article describes the potential of sperm-driven micro-bio-robots in the biomedical field such as drug delivery or single cell manipulation. Herein, a specific potential of the sperm-driven micro-bio-robot is described that might have impact on the development of assisted reproductive technologies.

  10. Impact of information and communication technology on child health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woo, Eugenia Hc; White, Peter; Lai, Christopher Wk

    2016-06-01

    This article provides a general framework for understanding the use of information and communication technology in education and discusses the impact of computer usage on students' health and development. Potential beneficial and harmful effects of computer use by children are discussed. Early epidemiological and laboratory studies have indicated that children are at least of similar risk of developing musculoskeletal and vision problems as adults, and musculoskeletal and visual health problems developed in childhood are likely to persist into adulthood. This article, therefore, aims to provide a reflection on the deficits of existing policy and recommendations for child-specific guidelines in computer use. © 2016 Paediatrics and Child Health Division (The Royal Australasian College of Physicians).

  11. Shuttle sonic boom - Technology and predictions. [environmental impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holloway, P. F.; Wilhold, G. A.; Jones, J. H.; Garcia, F., Jr.; Hicks, R. M.

    1973-01-01

    Because the shuttle differs significantly in both geometric and operational characteristics from conventional supersonic aircraft, estimation of sonic boom characteristics required a new technology base. The prediction procedures thus developed are reviewed. Flight measurements obtained for both the ascent and entry phases of the Apollo 15 and 16 and for the ascent phase only of the Apollo 17 missions are presented which verify the techniques established for application to shuttle. Results of extensive analysis of the sonic boom overpressure characteristics completed to date are presented which indicate that this factor of the shuttle's environmental impact is predictable, localized, of short duration and acceptable. Efforts are continuing to define the shuttle sonic boom characteristics to a fine level of detail based on the final system design.

  12. Reliability Impacts in Life Support Architecture and Technology Selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lange Kevin E.; Anderson, Molly S.

    2012-01-01

    Quantitative assessments of system reliability and equivalent system mass (ESM) were made for different life support architectures based primarily on International Space Station technologies. The analysis was applied to a one-year deep-space mission. System reliability was increased by adding redundancy and spares, which added to the ESM. Results were thus obtained allowing a comparison of the ESM for each architecture at equivalent levels of reliability. Although the analysis contains numerous simplifications and uncertainties, the results suggest that achieving necessary reliabilities for deep-space missions will add substantially to the life support ESM and could influence the optimal degree of life support closure. Approaches for reducing reliability impacts were investigated and are discussed.

  13. The impact of new technology on surgery for colorectal cancer

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gregory B Makin; David J Breen; John RT Monson

    2001-01-01

    Advances in technology continue at a rapid pace and affect all aspects of life, including surgery. We have reviewed some of these advances and the impact they are having on the investigation and management of colorectal cancer. Modern endoscopes, with magnifying, variable stiffness and Iocalisation capabilities are making the primary investigation of colonic cancer easier and more acceptable for patients. Imaging investigations looking at primary, metastatic and recurrent disease are shifting to digital data sets. which can he stored, reviewed remotely, potentially fused with other modalities and reconstructed as 3 dimensional (3D) images for the purposes of advanced diagnostic interpretation and computer assisted surgery. They include virtual colonoscopy, trans-rectal ultrasound, magnetic resonance imaging, positron emission tomography and radioimmunoscintigraphy. Once a colorectal carcinoma is diagnosed, the treatment options available are expanding.Colonic stents are being used to relieve large bowel obstruction, either as a palliative measure or to improve the patient's overall condition before definitive surgery.Transenal endoscopic microsurgery and minimally invasive techniques are being used with similar outcomes and a lower mortality, morbidity and hospital stay than open trans-abdominal surgery. Transanal endoscopic microsurgery allows precise excision of both benign and early malignant lesions in the mid and upper rectum.Survival of patients with inoperable hepatic metastases following radiofrequency ablation is encouraging.Robotics and telemedicine are taking surgery well into the 21st century. Artificial neural networks are being developed to enable us to predict the outcome for individual patients. New technology has a major impact on the way we practice surgery for colorectal cancer.``

  14. The impact of new translation technologies on specialized texts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthieu LeBlanc

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The introduction of translation technologies, especially translation memory software, has had a significant impact on both the translator’s professional practice and the target text itself. Apart from the fact that he or she must translate in a non-linear fashion due to the design of translation memory systems, the translator is now called upon to increase output and, in many cases, recycle what has already been translated by others. As a result, the translator, used to having full control over his or her text, is in some regards losing control over the translation process, which brings him or her to reflect on the quality of the final product and, in turn, on the transformations the field of specialized translation is undergoing. In this paper, I will present the results of an important ethnographic study conducted in three Canadian translation environments. I will focus mostly on the effects translation technologies and newly implemented practices have had on the quality of specialized texts destined for the Canadian market, where most of the specialized texts produced in French are in fact translations. Special attention will be given to the comments made by specialized translators during semi-directed interviews.

  15. Atmospheric composition forecasting in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Menut

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The atmospheric composition is a societal issue and, following new European directives, its forecast is now recommended to quantify the air quality. It concerns both gaseous and particles species, identified as potential problems for health. In Europe, numerical systems providing daily air quality forecasts are numerous and, mostly, operated by universities. Following recent European research projects (GEMS, PROMOTE, an organization of the air quality forecast is currently under development. But for the moment, many platforms exist, each of them with strengths and weaknesses. This overview paper presents all existing systems in Europe and try to identify the main remaining gaps in the air quality forecast knowledge. As modeling systems are now able to reasonably forecast gaseous species, and in a lesser extent aerosols, the future directions would concern the use of these systems with ensemble approaches and satellite data assimilation. If numerous improvements were recently done on emissions and chemistry knowledge, improvements are still needed especially concerning meteorology, which remains a weak point of forecast systems. Future directions will also concern the use of these forecast tools to better understand and quantify the air pollution impact on health.

  16. Biogas upgrading technologies:Energetic analysis and environmental impact assessment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yajing Xu; Ying Huang; Bin Wu; Xiangping Zhang; Suojiang Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Biogas upgrading for removing CO2 and other trace components from raw biogas is a necessary step before the biogas to be used as a vehicle fuel or supplied to the natural gas grid. In this work, three technologies for biogas upgrading, i.e., pressured water scrubbing (PWS), monoethanolamine aqueous scrubbing (MAS) and ionic liquid scrubbing (ILS), are studied and assessed in terms of their energy consumption and environmental impacts with the process simulation and green degree method. A non-random-two-liquid and Henry's law property method for a CO2 separation system with ionic liquid 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium bis(trifluoromethylsulfonyl)imide ([bmim][Tf2N]) is established and verified with experimental data. The assessment results indicate that the specific energy consumption of ILS and PWS is almost the same and much less than that of MAS. High purity CO2 product can be obtained by MAS and ILS methods, whereas no pure CO2 is recovered with the PWS. For the environmental aspect, ILS has the highest green degree production value, while MAS and PWS produce serious environmental impacts.

  17. Understanding the Impact of Ground Water Treatment and Evapotranspiration Parameterizations in the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) on Warm Season Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ek, M. B.; Yang, R.

    2016-12-01

    Skillful short-term weather forecasts, which rely heavily on quality atmospheric initial conditions, have a fundamental limit of about two weeks owing to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Useful forecasts at sub-seasonal to seasonal time scales, on the other hand, require well-simulated large-scale atmospheric response to slowly varying lower boundary forcings from both the ocean and land surface. The critical importance of ocean has been recognized, where the ocean indices have been used in a variety of climate applications. In contrast, the impact of land surface anomalies, especially soil moisture and associated evaporation, has been proven notably difficult to demonstrate. The Noah Land Surface Model (LSM) is the land component of NCEP CFS version 2 (CFSv2) used for seasonal predictions. The Noah LSM originates from the Oregon State University (OSU) LSM. The evaporation control in the Noah LSM is based on the Penman-Monteith equation, which takes into account the solar radiation, relative humidity, air temperature, and soil moisture effects. The Noah LSM is configured with four soil layers with a fixed depth of 2 meters and free drainage at the bottom soil layer. This treatment assumes that the soil water table depth is well within the specified range, and also potentially misrepresents the soil moisture memory effects at seasonal time scales. To overcome the limitation, an unconfined aquifer is attached to the bottom of the soil to allow the water table to move freely up and down. In addition, in conjunction with the water table, an alternative Ball-Berry photosynthesis-based evaporation parameterization is examined to evaluate the impact from using a different evaporation control methodology. Focusing on the 2011 and 2012 intense summer droughts in the central US, seasonal ensemble forecast experiments with early May initial conditions are carried out for the two years using an enhanced version of CFSv2, where the atmospheric component of the CFSv2 is

  18. Survey of the hypervelocity impact technology and applications.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chhabildas, Lalit Chandra; Orphal, Dennis L.

    2006-05-01

    HVIS 2005 was a clear success. The Symposium brought together nearly two hundred active researchers and students from thirteen countries around the world. The 84 papers presented at HVIS 2005 constitute an ''update'' on current research and the state-of-the-art of hypervelocity science. Combined with the over 7000 pages of technical papers from the eight previous Symposia, beginning in 1986, all published in the International Journal of Impact Engineering, the papers from HVIS 2005 add to the growing body of knowledge and the progressing state-of-the-art of hypervelocity science. It is encouraging to report that even with the limited funding resources compared to two decades ago, creativity and ingenuity in hypervelocity science are alive and well. There is considerable overlap in different disciplines that allows researchers to leverage. Experimentally, higher velocities are now available in the laboratory and are ideally suited for space applications that can be tied to both civilian (NASA) and DoD military applications. Computationally, there is considerable advancement both in computer and modeling technologies. Higher computing speeds and techniques such as parallel processing allow system level type applications to be addressed directly today, much in contrast to the situation only a few years ago. Needless to say, both experimentally and computationally, the ultimate utility will depend on the curiosity and the probing questions that will be incumbent upon the individual researcher. It is quite satisfying that over two dozen students attended the symposium. Hopefully this is indicative of a good pool of future researchers that will be needed both in the government and civilian industries. It is also gratifying to note that novel thrust areas exploring different and new material phenomenology relevant to hypervelocity impact, but a number of other applications as well, are being pursued. In conclusion, considerable progress is still being

  19. Combined use of weather forecasting and satellite remote sensing information for fire risk, fire and fire impact monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wolfgang Knorr

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The restoration of fire-affected forest areas needs to be combined with their future protection from renewed catastrophic fires, such as those that occurred in Greece during the 2007 summer season. The present work demonstrates that the use of various sources of satellite data in conjunction with weather forecast information is capable of providing valuable information for the characterization of fire danger with the purpose of protecting the Greek national forest areas. This study shows that favourable meteorological conditions have contributed to the fire outbreak during the days of the unusually damaging fires in Peloponnese as well as Euboia (modern Greek: Evia at the end of August 2007. During those days, Greece was located between an extended high pressure system in Central Europe and a low pressure system in the Middle East. Their combination resulted in strong north-northeasterly winds in the Aegean Sea. As a consequence, strong winds were also observed in the regions of Evia and Peloponnese, especially in mountainous areas. The analysis of satellite images showing smoke emitted from the fires corroborates the results from the weather forecasts. A further analysis using the Fraction of Absorbed Photosyntetically Active Radiation (FAPAR as an indicator of active vegetation shows the extent of the destruction caused by the fire. The position of the burned areas coincides with that of the active fires detected in the earlier satellite image. Using the annual maximum FAPAR as an indicator of regional vegetation density, it was found that only regions with relatively high FAPAR were burned.

  20. Atmospheric Motion Vectors from INSAT-3D: Initial quality assessment and its impact on track forecast of cyclonic storm NANAUK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deb, S. K.; Kishtawal, C. M.; Kumar, Prashant; Kiran Kumar, A. S.; Pal, P. K.; Kaushik, Nitesh; Sangar, Ghansham

    2016-03-01

    The advanced Indian meteorological geostationary satellite INSAT-3D was launched on 26 July 2013 with an improved imager and an infrared sounder and is placed at 82°E over the Indian Ocean region. With the advancement in retrieval techniques of different atmospheric parameters and with improved imager data have enhanced the scope for better understanding of the different tropical atmospheric processes over this region. The retrieval techniques and accuracy of one such parameter, Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMV) has improved significantly with the availability of improved spatial resolution data along with more options of spectral channels in the INSAT-3D imager. The present work is mainly focused on providing brief descriptions of INSAT-3D data and AMV derivation processes using these data. It also discussed the initial quality assessment of INSAT-3D AMVs for a period of six months starting from 01 February 2014 to 31 July 2014 with other independent observations: i) Meteosat-7 AMVs available over this region, ii) in-situ radiosonde wind measurements, iii) cloud tracked winds from Multi-angle Imaging Spectro-Radiometer (MISR) and iv) numerical model analysis. It is observed from this study that the qualities of newly derived INSAT-3D AMVs are comparable with existing two versions of Meteosat-7 AMVs over this region. To demonstrate its initial application, INSAT-3D AMVs are assimilated in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and it is found that the assimilation of newly derived AMVs has helped in reduction of track forecast errors of the recent cyclonic storm NANAUK over the Arabian Sea. Though, the present study is limited to its application to one case study, however, it will provide some guidance to the operational agencies for implementation of this new AMV dataset for future applications in the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) over the south Asia region.

  1. A methodology to enable rapid evaluation of aviation environmental impacts and aircraft technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, Keith Frederick

    Commercial aviation has become an integral part of modern society and enables unprecedented global connectivity by increasing rapid business, cultural, and personal connectivity. In the decades following World War II, passenger travel through commercial aviation quickly grew at a rate of roughly 8% per year globally. The FAA's most recent Terminal Area Forecast predicts growth to continue at a rate of 2.5% domestically, and the market outlooks produced by Airbus and Boeing generally predict growth to continue at a rate of 5% per year globally over the next several decades, which translates into a need for up to 30,000 new aircraft produced by 2025. With such large numbers of new aircraft potentially entering service, any negative consequences of commercial aviation must undergo examination and mitigation by governing bodies so that growth may still be achieved. Options to simultaneously grow while reducing environmental impact include evolution of the commercial fleet through changes in operations, aircraft mix, and technology adoption. Methods to rapidly evaluate fleet environmental metrics are needed to enable decision makers to quickly compare the impact of different scenarios and weigh the impact of multiple policy options. As the fleet evolves, interdependencies may emerge in the form of tradeoffs between improvements in different environmental metrics as new technologies are brought into service. In order to include the impacts of these interdependencies on fleet evolution, physics-based modeling is required at the appropriate level of fidelity. Evaluation of environmental metrics in a physics-based manner can be done at the individual aircraft level, but will then not capture aggregate fleet metrics. Contrastingly, evaluation of environmental metrics at the fleet level is already being done for aircraft in the commercial fleet, but current tools and approaches require enhancement because they currently capture technology implementation through post

  2. Modelling methodology for assessing the impact of new technology on complex sociotechnical systems

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Oosthuizen, R

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Developing complex sociotechnical systems often involves integrating new technology into existing systems by applying systems engineering processes. This requires an understanding of the problem space and the possible impact of the new technology...

  3. Readings in technology assessment. [in relation to social impact and the law

    Science.gov (United States)

    1975-01-01

    Papers are presented which reflect research in the following areas: development of the concept of technology assessment; institutionalization of technology assessment; the interface between law and technology assessment; and assessment case studies. Case studies include hazards of the medical use of X-rays, environmental noise effects in transportation planning, genetic technology, impact of underground coal mining, and aircraft/airport noise abatement.

  4. Analyzing the Impacts of an IPM Vegetable Technology Transfer in Bangladesh

    OpenAIRE

    McCarthy, Evan Tyler

    2015-01-01

    This study evaluates the effectiveness and impacts of USAID's IPM IL vegetable technology transfer subproject in Bangladesh. The effectiveness of the technology transfer is evaluated in four ways: IPM adoption rates and determinants of IPM adoption, measuring the impact of IPM adoption on vegetable yields, pest management costs, and the number of pesticide applications used, estimation of the economic impacts of IPM adoption and the technology transfer, and analysis of the relative efficienc...

  5. Technical and Economic Forecast in Selection of Optimum Biomass and Local Fossil Fuel Application Technology for Thermal Electric Energy Generation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Bokun

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper provides a technical and economic analysis pertaining to selection of optimum biomass and local fossil fuel application technology for thermal electric energy generation while using a matrix of costs and a method of minimum value. Calculation results give grounds to assert that it is expedient to burn in the boiling layer – 69 % and 31 % of wood pellets and wastes, respectively and 54 % of peat and 46 % of slate stones. A steam and gas unit (SGU can fully operate on peat. Taking into account reorientation on decentralized power supply and increase of small power plants up to 3–5 MW the paper specifies variants of the most efficient technologies for burning biomass and local fossil fuels. 

  6. Impact of Technology on Teacher Efficacy and Instruction Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    VanderNoor, Jeffrey Michael

    2014-01-01

    In light of the emerging emphasis on interpreting technology, this study investigated how teachers' technology self-efficacy influenced their use of technology in the classroom technology use. The secondary purpose was to examine the extent teacher technology self-efficacy was related to instructional time. The study findings answered questions of…

  7. Forecast analysis on satellites that need de-orbit technologies: future scenarios for passive de-orbit devices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palla, Chiara; Kingston, Jennifer

    2016-09-01

    Propulsion-based de-orbit is a space-proven technology; however, this strategy can strongly limit operational lifetime, as fuel mass is dedicated to the de-orbiting. In addition previous reliability studies have identified the propulsion subsystem as one of the major contributors driving satellite failures. This issue brings the need to develop affordable de-orbit technologies with a limited reliance on the system level performance of the host satellite, ideally largely passive methods. Passive disposal strategies which take advantage of aerodynamic drag as the de-orbit force are particularly attractive because they are independent of spacecraft propulsion capabilities. This paper investigates the future market for passive de-orbit devices in LEO to aid in defining top-level requirements for the design of such devices. This is performed by considering the compliances of projected future satellites with the Inter Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee de-orbit time, to quantify the number of spacecraft that are compliant or non-compliant with the guidelines and, in this way, determine their need for the previously discussed devices. The study is performed by using the SpaceTrak™ database which provides future launch schedules, and spacecraft information; the de-orbit analysis is carried out by means of simulations with STELA. A case study of a passive strategy is given by the de-orbit mechanism technological demonstrator, which is currently under development at Cranfield University and designed to deploy a drag sail at the end of the ESEO satellite mission.

  8. Future impact of new technologies: Three scenarios, their competence gab and research implications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harmsen, Hanne; Sonne, Anne-Mette; Jensen, Birger Boutrup

    2004-01-01

    What will the impact of science in the food industry be 10 years from now? Large or overwhelming most people will probably agree. But of we want to be more specific, we might start by defining, what type of technology we have in mind and secondly, what kind of impact we are talking about. Since...... there are many technologies whose impact can be relevantly studied from a varety of different angles, this is indeed a challing task if we want ot ende up with an overall picture of the impact of technology. In this chapte, we consequently do not start by looking at any particular technology and discussing what...

  9. A compared R&D-based and patent-based cross impact analysis for identifying relationships between technologies

    OpenAIRE

    D. THORLEUCHTER; D. VAN DEN POEL; A. PRINZIE; 1958-

    2010-01-01

    The planning of technological research and development (R&D) is demanding in areas with many relationships between technologies. To support decision makers of a government organization with R&D planning in these areas, a methodology to make the technology impact more transparent is introduced. The method shows current technology impact and impact trends from the R&D of an organization's competitors and compares these to the technology impact and impact trends from the organization's own R&D. ...

  10. Evaluating the income and employment impacts of gas cooling technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hughes, P.J. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Laitner, S.

    1995-03-01

    The purpose of this study is to estimate the potential employment and income benefits of the emerging market for gas cooling products. The emphasis here is on exports because that is the major opportunity for the U.S. heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) industry. But domestic markets are also important and considered here because without a significant domestic market, it is unlikely that the plant investments, jobs, and income associated with gas cooling exports would be retained within the United States. The prospects for significant gas cooling exports appear promising for a variety of reasons. There is an expanding need for cooling in the developing world, natural gas is widely available, electric infrastructures are over-stressed in many areas, and the cost of building new gas infrastructure is modest compared to the cost of new electric infrastructure. Global gas cooling competition is currently limited, with Japanese and U.S. companies, and their foreign business partners, the only product sources. U.S. manufacturers of HVAC products are well positioned to compete globally, and are already one of the faster growing goods-exporting sectors of the U.S. economy. Net HVAC exports grew by over 800 percent from 1987 to 1992 and currently exceed $2.6 billion annually (ARI 1994). Net gas cooling job and income creation are estimated using an economic input-output model to compare a reference case to a gas cooling scenario. The reference case reflects current policies, practices, and trends with respect to conventional electric cooling technologies. The gas cooling scenario examines the impact of accelerated use of natural gas cooling technologies here and abroad.

  11. Evaluating the income and employment impacts of gas cooling technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hughes, P.J. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Laitner, S.

    1995-03-01

    The purpose of this study is to estimate the potential employment and income benefits of the emerging market for gas cooling products. The emphasis here is on exports because that is the major opportunity for the U.S. heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) industry. But domestic markets are also important and considered here because without a significant domestic market, it is unlikely that the plant investments, jobs, and income associated with gas cooling exports would be retained within the United States. The prospects for significant gas cooling exports appear promising for a variety of reasons. There is an expanding need for cooling in the developing world, natural gas is widely available, electric infrastructures are over-stressed in many areas, and the cost of building new gas infrastructure is modest compared to the cost of new electric infrastructure. Global gas cooling competition is currently limited, with Japanese and U.S. companies, and their foreign business partners, the only product sources. U.S. manufacturers of HVAC products are well positioned to compete globally, and are already one of the faster growing goods-exporting sectors of the U.S. economy. Net HVAC exports grew by over 800 percent from 1987 to 1992 and currently exceed $2.6 billion annually (ARI 1994). Net gas cooling job and income creation are estimated using an economic input-output model to compare a reference case to a gas cooling scenario. The reference case reflects current policies, practices, and trends with respect to conventional electric cooling technologies. The gas cooling scenario examines the impact of accelerated use of natural gas cooling technologies here and abroad.

  12. Examining the Impact of Educational Technology Courses on Pre-Service Teachers' Development of Technological Pedagogical Content Knowledge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Pi-Sui

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this qualitative study was to examine the impact of educational technology courses on pre-service teachers' development of knowledge of technology integration in a teacher preparation program in the USA. The present study was conducted with eight pre-service teachers enrolled in the elementary teacher education program at a large…

  13. Methods and technologies for surveying and forecasting the rice stem borers%水稻钻蛀性螟虫田间调查及测报技术

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陆明星; 陆自强; 杜予州

    2014-01-01

    For a long time, the rice stem borers are main insect pest in rice. With the change of rice cultivation and climate change, the populations of the rice stem borers increase gradually, which damage the rice yield more and more seriously in recent years. Therefore, it’s very meaningful for the integrated management of the rice stem borers to investigate the dynamics scientifically and forecast accurately their trends. According to biological characteristics of Sesamia inferens (Walker), Chilo suppressalis (Walker), Scirpophaga incertulas (Walker), the surveying methods of these borers in the field were summarized. And three forecasting methods of occurrence stage were demonstrated. Moreover, some attentions during the survey were discussed. In conclusion, these methods and technologies will provide a strong foundation for the integrated management of the rice stem borers.%长期以来,水稻钻蛀性螟虫都是我国水稻上的重要害虫。近年来,随着水稻栽培制度的变更及全球性气候的变化,种群数量逐渐回升,为害日趋严重。因此,科学的调查方法和准确的预测预报,对该类害虫的综合治理具有重要意义。本文根据大螟Sesamia inferens(Walker)、二化螟Chilo suppressalis(Walker)和三化螟Scirpophaga incertulas(Walker)的生物学特性,总结了这3种水稻钻蛀性螟虫的田间调查方法;阐述了它们的发生期预测方法;探讨了在调查取样过程中的注意事项,以期为我国水稻钻蛀性螟虫的综合防治提供可靠的数据支撑。

  14. kwmc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kcgi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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  15. kcll Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. ktmb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. khvr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kara Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kinw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kism Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...