WorldWideScience

Sample records for technology forecast assessments

  1. Potential Technologies for Assessing Risk Associated with a Mesoscale Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-10-01

    List of Tables iv 1. Introduction 1 2. Overview of Assessment Methods 2 3. Assessment of Spatial and Temporal Uncertainties in Ensemble...List of Tables Table List of predictors..................................................................................... 16 1 1. Introduction...density, region, and synoptic conditions. b. Characterize model uncertainty by evaluating the range of possible parameterizations. c

  2. A formulation of multidimensional growth models for the assessment and forecast of technology attributes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danner, Travis W.

    Developing technology systems requires all manner of investment---engineering talent, prototypes, test facilities, and more. Even for simple design problems the investment can be substantial; for complex technology systems, the development costs can be staggering. The profitability of a corporation in a technology-driven industry is crucially dependent on maximizing the effectiveness of research and development investment. Decision-makers charged with allocation of this investment are forced to choose between the further evolution of existing technologies and the pursuit of revolutionary technologies. At risk on the one hand is excessive investment in an evolutionary technology which has only limited availability for further improvement. On the other hand, the pursuit of a revolutionary technology may mean abandoning momentum and the potential for substantial evolutionary improvement resulting from the years of accumulated knowledge. The informed answer to this question, evolutionary or revolutionary, requires knowledge of the expected rate of improvement and the potential a technology offers for further improvement. This research is dedicated to formulating the assessment and forecasting tools necessary to acquire this knowledge. The same physical laws and principles that enable the development and improvement of specific technologies also limit the ultimate capability of those technologies. Researchers have long used this concept as the foundation for modeling technological advancement through extrapolation by analogy to biological growth models. These models are employed to depict technology development as it asymptotically approaches limits established by the fundamental principles on which the technological approach is based. This has proven an effective and accurate approach to modeling and forecasting simple single-attribute technologies. With increased system complexity and the introduction of multiple system objectives, however, the usefulness of this

  3. Forecasting and management of technology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Roper, A. T

    2011-01-01

    .... The scope of this edition has broadened to include management of technology content that is relevant to now to executives in organizations while updating and strengthening the technology forecasting...

  4. Assessing the accuracy of forecasting: applying standard diagnostic assessment tools to a health technology early warning system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, Sue; Hyde, Chris; Cook, Alison; Packer, Claire; Stevens, Andrew

    2004-01-01

    Early warning systems are an integral part of many health technology assessment programs. Despite this finding, to date, there have been no quantitative evaluations of the accuracy of predictions made by these systems. We report a study evaluating the accuracy of predictions made by the main United Kingdom early warning system. As prediction of impact is analogous to diagnosis, a method normally applied to determine the accuracy of diagnostic tests was used. The sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of the National Horizon Scanning Centre's prediction methods were estimated with reference to an (imperfect) gold standard, that is, expert opinion of impact 3 to 5 years after prediction. The sensitivity of predictions was 71 percent (95 percent confidence interval [CI], 0.36-0.92), and the specificity was 73 percent (95 percent CI, 0.64-0.8). The negative predictive value was 98 percent (95 percent CI, 0.92-0.99), and the positive predictive value was 14 percent (95 percent CI, 0.06-0.3). Forecasting is difficult, but the results suggest that this early warning system's predictions have an acceptable level of accuracy. However, there are caveats. The first is that early warning systems may themselves reduce the impact of a technology, as helping to control adoption and diffusion is their main purpose. The second is that the use of an imperfect gold standard may bias the results. As early warning systems are viewed as an increasingly important component of health technology assessment and decision making, their outcomes must be evaluated. The method used here should be investigated further and the accuracy of other early warning systems explored.

  5. Hydrocarbon Rocket Technology Impact Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuber, Eric; Prasadh, Nishant; Edwards, Stephen; Mavris, Dimitri N.

    2012-01-01

    Forecasting method is a normative forecasting technique that allows the designer to quantify the effects of adding new technologies on a given design. This method can be used to assess and identify the necessary technological improvements needed to close the gap that exists between the current design and one that satisfies all constraints imposed on the design. The TIF methodology allows for more design knowledge to be brought to the earlier phases of the design process, making use of tools such as Quality Function Deployments, Morphological Matrices, Response Surface Methodology, and Monte Carlo Simulations.2 This increased knowledge allows for more informed decisions to be made earlier in the design process, resulting in shortened design cycle time. This paper will investigate applying the TIF method, which has been widely used in aircraft applications, to the conceptual design of a hydrocarbon rocket engine. In order to reinstate a manned presence in space, the U.S. must develop an affordable and sustainable launch capability. Hydrocarbon-fueled rockets have drawn interest from numerous major government and commercial entities because they offer a low-cost heavy-lift option that would allow for frequent launches1. However, the development of effective new hydrocarbon rockets would likely require new technologies in order to overcome certain design constraints. The use of advanced design methods, such as the TIF method, enables the designer to identify key areas in need of improvement, allowing one to dial in a proposed technology and assess its impact on the system. Through analyses such as this one, a conceptual design for a hydrocarbon-fueled vehicle that meets all imposed requirements can be achieved.

  6. A Delphi forecast of technology in education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, B. E.

    1973-01-01

    The results are reported of a Delphi forecast of the utilization and social impacts of large-scale educational telecommunications technology. The focus is on both forecasting methodology and educational technology. The various methods of forecasting used by futurists are analyzed from the perspective of the most appropriate method for a prognosticator of educational technology, and review and critical analysis are presented of previous forecasts and studies. Graphic responses, summarized comments, and a scenario of education in 1990 are presented.

  7. Assessment of storm forecast

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Huus Bjerge, Martin

    at analysing the ability of existing forecast tools to predict storms at the Horns Rev 2 wind farm. The focus will be on predicting the time where the wind turbine will need to shut down to protect itself, e.g. the time where wind speed exceeds 25 m/s. At the same time, the planned shut-down should cost...... storms was analysed based on historical meteorological data available at Risø DTU and dynamically down-scaled to the Horns Rev 2 wind farm level. This solution was chosen due to the lack of measurements. Moreover, since the project started, there were four events during which Horns Rev 2 wind farm...

  8. Computer technology forecasting at the National Laboratories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peskin, A.M.

    1980-01-01

    The DOE Office of ADP Management organized a group of scientists and computer professionals, mostly from their own national laboratories, to prepare an annually updated technology forecast to accompany the Department's five-year ADP Plan. The activities of the task force were originally reported in an informal presentation made at the ACM Conference in 1978. This presentation represents an update of that report. It also deals with the process of applying the results obtained at a particular computing center, Brookhaven National Laboratory. Computer technology forecasting is a difficult and hazardous endeavor, but it can reap considerable advantage. The forecast performed on an industry-wide basis can be applied to the particular needs of a given installation, and thus give installation managers considerable guidance in planning. A beneficial side effect of this process is that it forces installation managers, who might otherwise tend to preoccupy themselves with immediate problems, to focus on longer term goals and means to their ends

  9. Forecasting methods for computer technology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Worlton, W.J.

    1978-01-01

    How well the computer site manager avoids future dangers and takes advantage of future opportunities depends to a considerable degree on how much anticipatory information he has available. People who rise in management are expected with each successive promotion to concern themselves with events further in the future. It is the function of technology projection to increase this stock of information about possible future developments in order to put planning and decision making on a more rational basis. Past efforts at computer technology projections have an accuracy that declines exponentially with time. Thus, precisely defined technology projections beyond about three years should be used with considerable caution. This paper reviews both subjective and objective methods of technology projection and gives examples of each. For an integrated view of future prospects in computer technology, a framework for technology projection is proposed.

  10. Forecasting and management of technology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Roper, A. T

    2011-01-01

    ... what the authors see as the innovations to technology management in the last 17 years: the Internet; the greater focus on group decision-making including process management and mechanism design; and desktop software that has transformed the analytical capabilities of technology managers"--Provided by publisher.

  11. Forecasting Technological Discontinuities in the ICT Industry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoisl, Karin; Stelzer, Tobias; Biala, Stefanie

    2015-01-01

    in the ICT industry. The conjoint approach allows for a simulation of the forecasting process and considers utility trade-offs. The results show that for both types of experts the perceived benefit of users most highly contributes to predicting technological discontinuities. Internal experts assign more...

  12. Forecasting and management of technology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Roper, A. T

    2011-01-01

    "The new, revised edition of this book will build on this knowledge in the context of business organizations that now place a greater emphasis on technology to stay on the cutting edge of development...

  13. Assessing flood forecast uncertainty with fuzzy arithmetic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    de Bruyn Bertrand

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Providing forecasts for flow rates and water levels during floods have to be associated with uncertainty estimates. The forecast sources of uncertainty are plural. For hydrological forecasts (rainfall-runoff performed using a deterministic hydrological model with basic physics, two main sources can be identified. The first obvious source is the forcing data: rainfall forecast data are supplied in real time by meteorological forecasting services to the Flood Forecasting Service within a range between a lowest and a highest predicted discharge. These two values define an uncertainty interval for the rainfall variable provided on a given watershed. The second source of uncertainty is related to the complexity of the modeled system (the catchment impacted by the hydro-meteorological phenomenon, the number of variables that may describe the problem and their spatial and time variability. The model simplifies the system by reducing the number of variables to a few parameters. Thus it contains an intrinsic uncertainty. This model uncertainty is assessed by comparing simulated and observed rates for a large number of hydro-meteorological events. We propose a method based on fuzzy arithmetic to estimate the possible range of flow rates (and levels of water making a forecast based on possible rainfalls provided by forcing and uncertainty model. The model uncertainty is here expressed as a range of possible values. Both rainfall and model uncertainties are combined with fuzzy arithmetic. This method allows to evaluate the prediction uncertainty range. The Flood Forecasting Service of Oise and Aisne rivers, in particular, monitors the upstream watershed of the Oise at Hirson. This watershed’s area is 310 km2. Its response time is about 10 hours. Several hydrological models are calibrated for flood forecasting in this watershed and use the rainfall forecast. This method presents the advantage to be easily implemented. Moreover, it permits to be carried out

  14. Information Technology Resources Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-04-01

    The Information Technology Resources Assessment (ITRA) is being published as a companion document to the Department of Energy (DOE) FY 1994--FY 1998 Information Resources Management Long-Range Plan. This document represents a collaborative effort between the Office of Information Resources Management and the Office of Energy Research that was undertaken to achieve, in part, the Technology Strategic Objective of IRM Vision 21. An integral part of this objective, technology forecasting provides an understanding of the information technology horizon and presents a perspective and focus on technologies of particular interest to DOE program activities. Specifically, this document provides site planners with an overview of the status and use of new information technology for their planning consideration.

  15. Computer technology forecast study for general aviation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seacord, C. L.; Vaughn, D.

    1976-01-01

    A multi-year, multi-faceted program is underway to investigate and develop potential improvements in airframes, engines, and avionics for general aviation aircraft. The objective of this study was to assemble information that will allow the government to assess the trends in computer and computer/operator interface technology that may have application to general aviation in the 1980's and beyond. The current state of the art of computer hardware is assessed, technical developments in computer hardware are predicted, and nonaviation large volume users of computer hardware are identified.

  16. Forecasting the impact of virtual environment technology on maintenance training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlager, Mark S.; Boman, Duane; Piantanida, Tom; Stephenson, Robert

    1993-01-01

    To assist NASA and the Air Force in determining how and when to invest in virtual environment (VE) technology for maintenance training, we identified possible roles for VE technology in such training, assessed its cost-effectiveness relative to existing technologies, and formulated recommendations for a research agenda that would address instructional and system development issues involved in fielding a VE training system. In the first phase of the study, we surveyed VE developers to forecast capabilities, maturity, and estimated costs for VE component technologies. We then identified maintenance tasks and their training costs through interviews with maintenance technicians, instructors, and training developers. Ten candidate tasks were selected from two classes of maintenance tasks (seven aircraft maintenance and three space maintenance) using five criteria developed to identify types of tasks most likely to benefit from VE training. Three tasks were used as specific cases for cost-benefit analysis. In formulating research recommendations, we considered three aspects of feasibility: technological considerations, cost-effectiveness, and anticipated R&D efforts. In this paper, we describe the major findings in each of these areas and suggest research efforts that we believe will help achieve the goal of a cost-effective VE maintenance training system by the next decade.

  17. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  18. Forecasting and Technology Management: Statistical Theory and Methodological Issues

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henning

    of directions and targets for a R and D project, monitoring of a given area by a public agency, and evaluation of the future competitive situation for a company. This paper gives a brief introduction to the field of technological forecasting especially in relation to the strategic planning process......, they disturb, for better or worse, existing practices, institutions, and human activities. The rapidity of introduction of technical successors seems to be increasing in many fields. Therefore, each technology concept tends to have a shorter marketplace life because of prompt challenge from a new and superior...... technology. The conclusion is that widespread awareness of the growing force of technology and increasing concern over its impact means that forecasting of technological development and consequences is absolutely essential in many managerial decision situations. Examples cover e.g. identification...

  19. Technology assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rohwer, P.S.; Anderson, D.L.; Christian, D.J.

    1978-01-01

    Theoretical studies in assessment methodology have concentrated in the past year on computerization of state-of-the-art models for internal radiation dosimetry and development and evaluation of environmental transport models. Methodology applications continued to cover a broad spectrum of radiation exposure scenarios. Potential exposure situations requiring assessment arise from assorted deployments of all parts of nuclear fuel cycles, including comparisons of alternative uranium and thorium based cycles, and preliminary evaluations of advanced reactor fuel concepts. Measurements and samples were collected characterizing and documenting the current radiological status of formerly used Manhattan Engineer District/Atomic Energy Commission (MED/AEC) sites. This survey program encompasses research activities in the areas of survey design, instrumentation development, sample analysis, and data reduction and analysis. Other laboratory activities within TAS center around the unique capabilities of the Health Physics Research Reactor (HPRR) as an irradiation source. Typically the HPRR was involved in testing and intercomparison of dosimetry and criticality alarm systems and in exposure of physical and biological experiments

  20. Study on the Method of the Technology Forecasting Based on Conjoint Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miao, Jing-Yi; Liu, Cheng-Yu; Sun, Zhen-Hua

    We discuss an application of conjoint analysis in technology forecasting, summarize basic operation steps of conjoint analysis, and give a stimulant example of technology forecasting. In this example, we consider five factors that will affect the emergence of a new technology. These factors have investing demand in a new technology, potential market value of a new technology, realizable difficulty of a new technology, supporting degree of relative technology to a new technology, and the competitive power of a new technology with original technology. Technology development has a discontinuity. With discontinuity, we cannot forecast the future of technology development, based on the current trend of technology development. As using quantitative methods to make forecasting, we assumed that current trends of technology development hold a fixed law, so those quantitative methods cannot forecast the discontinuity of technology development. Some subjective forecasting methods have huge improvement in technological discontinuity forecasting. The improvement is that forecaster's subjective judgments and capability are embodied in forecasting. But this method has two inherent defects: one is the lack of design ability, which makes this method susceptible to the influence of organizer and forecasting, and the other is that while facing numerous forecasters, the forecasting data are often difficult to explain and analyze; we also have difficultly in making a synthesized judgment. A subjective and synthesized judgment of technology development is similar to economical utility, thus we could apply the measure of colony's utility to improve the appropriateness and reliability of subjective forecasting method. Using conjoint analysis, we can judge the colony's utility accurately, because the datum that we use in analysis comes from the subjective judgments of forecasters to various fields of technical development, but the influence of the random error can be dispelled by using

  1. A hindcast archive to assess forecast uncertainty of seasonal forecasts for the Columbia River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nijssen, B.

    2006-12-01

    More than half of the electricity in the northwestern United States is generated by hydropower facilities in the Columbia River Basin. Consequently, seasonal hydrologic forecasts of naturalized streamflow are of interest to system operators, energy traders and financial institutions. Much of the seasonal streamflow predictability is derived from the importance of snow melt in the Columbia River Basin. Further predictability is derived from the ENSO-state (El Niño Southern Oscillation), which affects precipitation patterns in the basin. Typically, the Pacific Northwest experiences a greater likelihood of reduced precipitation during El Niño episodes, and a greater likelihood of increased precipitation during La Niña episodes. For the 2006 water year, we created long-range operational hydrologic forecasts for selected locations in the basin using a macroscale hydrologic model and an ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) methodology. Although our ESP approach provided a measure of the range of expected streamflow conditions, it did not account for the uncertainty in forecast initial conditions, parameter uncertainty or model uncertainty. To assess the total uncertainty associated with our hydrologic forecasts, we have created a hindcast database for the period 1950-2005, which includes 12-month forecasts made on the start of each month during the period November May. This hindcast archive enables us to assess the total uncertainty associated with our seasonal forecasts. We will present forecast verification results for selected locations in the Columbia River Basin as a function of lead time and ENSO condition.

  2. Assessment of an ensemble seasonal streamflow forecasting system for Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. Bennett

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Despite an increasing availability of skilful long-range streamflow forecasts, many water agencies still rely on simple resampled historical inflow sequences (stochastic scenarios to plan operations over the coming year. We assess a recently developed forecasting system called forecast guided stochastic scenarios (FoGSS as a skilful alternative to standard stochastic scenarios for the Australian continent. FoGSS uses climate forecasts from a coupled ocean–land–atmosphere prediction system, post-processed with the method of calibration, bridging and merging. Ensemble rainfall forecasts force a monthly rainfall–runoff model, while a staged hydrological error model quantifies and propagates hydrological forecast uncertainty through forecast lead times. FoGSS is able to generate ensemble streamflow forecasts in the form of monthly time series to a 12-month forecast horizon. FoGSS is tested on 63 Australian catchments that cover a wide range of climates, including 21 ephemeral rivers. In all perennial and many ephemeral catchments, FoGSS provides an effective alternative to resampled historical inflow sequences. FoGSS generally produces skilful forecasts at shorter lead times ( <  4 months, and transits to climatology-like forecasts at longer lead times. Forecasts are generally reliable and unbiased. However, FoGSS does not perform well in very dry catchments (catchments that experience zero flows more than half the time in some months, sometimes producing strongly negative forecast skill and poor reliability. We attempt to improve forecasts through the use of (i ESP rainfall forcings, (ii different rainfall–runoff models, and (iii a Bayesian prior to encourage the error model to return climatology forecasts in months when the rainfall–runoff model performs poorly. Of these, the use of the prior offers the clearest benefit in very dry catchments, where it moderates strongly negative forecast skill and reduces bias in some

  3. Operational flash flood forecasting platform based on grid technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thierion, V.; Ayral, P.-A.; Angelini, V.; Sauvagnargues-Lesage, S.; Nativi, S.; Payrastre, O.

    2009-04-01

    Flash flood events of south of France such as the 8th and 9th September 2002 in the Grand Delta territory caused important economic and human damages. Further to this catastrophic hydrological situation, a reform of flood warning services have been initiated (set in 2006). Thus, this political reform has transformed the 52 existing flood warning services (SAC) in 22 flood forecasting services (SPC), in assigning them territories more hydrological consistent and new effective hydrological forecasting mission. Furthermore, national central service (SCHAPI) has been created to ease this transformation and support local services in their new objectives. New functioning requirements have been identified: - SPC and SCHAPI carry the responsibility to clearly disseminate to public organisms, civil protection actors and population, crucial hydrologic information to better anticipate potential dramatic flood event, - a new effective hydrological forecasting mission to these flood forecasting services seems essential particularly for the flash floods phenomenon. Thus, models improvement and optimization was one of the most critical requirements. Initially dedicated to support forecaster in their monitoring mission, thanks to measuring stations and rainfall radar images analysis, hydrological models have to become more efficient in their capacity to anticipate hydrological situation. Understanding natural phenomenon occuring during flash floods mainly leads present hydrological research. Rather than trying to explain such complex processes, the presented research try to manage the well-known need of computational power and data storage capacities of these services. Since few years, Grid technology appears as a technological revolution in high performance computing (HPC) allowing large-scale resource sharing, computational power using and supporting collaboration across networks. Nowadays, EGEE (Enabling Grids for E-science in Europe) project represents the most important

  4. An improved market penetration model for wind energy technology forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lund, P.D. [Helsinki Univ. of Technology, Espoo (Finland). Advanced Energy Systems

    1995-12-31

    An improved market penetration model with application to wind energy forecasting is presented. In the model, a technology diffusion model and manufacturing learning curve are combined. Based on a 85% progress ratio that was found for European wind manufactures and on wind market statistics, an additional wind power capacity of ca 4 GW is needed in Europe to reach a 30 % price reduction. A full breakthrough to low-cost utility bulk power markets could be achieved at a 24 GW level. (author)

  5. An improved market penetration model for wind energy technology forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lund, P.D.

    1995-01-01

    An improved market penetration model with application to wind energy forecasting is presented. In the model, a technology diffusion model and manufacturing learning curve are combined. Based on a 85% progress ratio that was found for European wind manufactures and on wind market statistics, an additional wind power capacity of ca 4 GW is needed in Europe to reach a 30 % price reduction. A full breakthrough to low-cost utility bulk power markets could be achieved at a 24 GW level. (author)

  6. Improving the Army’s Next Effort in Technology Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-01

    Richard Feynman , “Simulating Physics with Computers,” International Journal of Theoretical Physics, 21 (1982), 467–488. 45 D. Deutsch, “Quantum Theory...Improving the Army’s Next Effort in Technology Forecasting John Lyons, Richard Chait, and Simone Erchov, Editors...Psychology and Human Development from the University of Chicago. Richard Chait is a Distinguished Research Fellow at CTNSP. He was previously Chief

  7. Past speculations of the future: a review of the methods used for forecasting emerging health technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doos, Lucy; Packer, Claire; Ward, Derek; Simpson, Sue; Stevens, Andrew

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Forecasting can support rational decision-making around the introduction and use of emerging health technologies and prevent investment in technologies that have limited long-term potential. However, forecasting methods need to be credible. We performed a systematic search to identify the methods used in forecasting studies to predict future health technologies within a 3–20-year timeframe. Identification and retrospective assessment of such methods potentially offer a route to more reliable prediction. Design Systematic search of the literature to identify studies reported on methods of forecasting in healthcare. Participants People are not needed in this study. Data sources The authors searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsychINFO and grey literature sources, and included articles published in English that reported their methods and a list of identified technologies. Main outcome measure Studies reporting methods used to predict future health technologies within a 3–20-year timeframe with an identified list of individual healthcare technologies. Commercially sponsored reviews, long-term futurology studies (with over 20-year timeframes) and speculative editorials were excluded. Results 15 studies met our inclusion criteria. Our results showed that the majority of studies (13/15) consulted experts either alone or in combination with other methods such as literature searching. Only 2 studies used more complex forecasting tools such as scenario building. Conclusions The methodological fundamentals of formal 3–20-year prediction are consistent but vary in details. Further research needs to be conducted to ascertain if the predictions made were accurate and whether accuracy varies by the methods used or by the types of technologies identified. PMID:26966060

  8. Technology Reconciliation in the Remote Sensing ERA of United States Civilian Weather Forecasting: 1957 -1987.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Courain, Margaret Eileen

    This dissertation seeks to advance an understanding of the management of a major technological change in meteorology. The study examines the connection between changes in production and real-time use of data products derived from remote -sensing data collection and the evolution of U.S. civilian weather forecasting 1957-1987. The role of data collection in weather forecasting throughout history is examined, giving most attention to the 1957-1987 period. Critical to the real-time use of remote-sensing data was technology reconciliation. As defined by the author, it is the function or process by which data products and information derived from a new technology are made consistent or congruent with the existing data representations of a science in order to be used effectively. No model had been developed for a technology reconciliation process, or definition of the major role technology reconciliators played in the 30-year evolution of the science of weather forecasting. In order to assess the new remote-sensing data resource and its use in U.S. civilian weather forecasting, a Data Accountability and Review Technique (DART) was developed by the author in 1989. This technique was used to identify 16 of the technology reconciliators who developed and reconciled 25 new remote-sensing data products with the weather charts, maps and computer models of the National Weather Service. In five separate program teams, they were responsible for 15 improvements in the products--forecasts--and 18 improvement in the process of weather forecasting. A model of the technology reconciliation is proposed which can be applied to understanding the contemporary history of other sciences. The model, as well as the methods developed by the author to recognize the process of technology reconciliation has a much more general applicability beyond the sciences. Any field implementing new technology that promises to improve its whole way of working will be faced with the task of technology

  9. Analyses and Forecasting of Smart Grid Technological Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. V. Danilin

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: this paper analyzes and forecasts medium- to long-term dynamics of Smart Grid technology developments considering both patent activity and socio-economic (demand-side issues and requirements of economy and power system factors. Methods: for the analysis of Smart Grid patent data (IIP, USPTO, and WIPO patent databases used we apply syntactic semantic analysis of texts in natural languages and logistic curve-based method. We propose Exactus Patent system for intelligent full-text search and analysis of patents (results verified with Thomson Innovation and TotalPatent patent search systems. For interpretation of revealed dynamics and forecasting of future conditions we identify key long-term socio-economic factors drivers for Smart Grid development. Elements of C. Christensen (disruptive innovations and G. Dosi (technological trajectories theories were applied. Results: the study reveals a fast technological transformation within the Smart Grid domain due to the long-term socio-economic factors such as rise of renewables; energy efficiency and energy security issues; environmental constraints and shift of values; requirements for accelerated grid construction (in developing economies and grid modernization (in developed ones; ongoing economy-wide digitalization. Due to the limited economic effects of Smart Grid roll-outs (considering major requirements of economic agents and society and considering progressions of patent dynamics, authors forecasts technology stagnation (in terms of number of patents growth by the end of 2010-s as end of Gartner`s hype development stage. Conclusions and Relevance: a foreseen change in dynamics of Smart Grid technology development is interpreted as a manifestation of sinusoidal fluctuations in technology development for disruptive technologies (supported with OECD data. A longer cycle (in comparison with other disruptive technologies is interpreted as consequence of technology and industry specifics

  10. Uncertainty Assessment: Reservoir Inflow Forecasting with Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts and HEC-HMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sheng-Chi Yang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available During an extreme event, having accurate inflow forecasting with enough lead time helps reservoir operators decrease the impact of floods downstream. Furthermore, being able to efficiently operate reservoirs could help maximize flood protection while saving water for drier times of the year. This study combines ensemble quantitative precipitation forecasts and a hydrological model to provide a 3-day reservoir inflow in the Shihmen Reservoir, Taiwan. A total of six historical typhoons were used for model calibration, validation, and application. An understanding of cascaded uncertainties from the numerical weather model through the hydrological model is necessary for a better use for forecasting. This study thus conducted an assessment of forecast uncertainty on magnitude and timing of peak and cumulative inflows. It found that using the ensemble-mean had less uncertainty than randomly selecting individual member. The inflow forecasts with shorter length of cumulative time had a higher uncertainty. The results showed that using the ensemble precipitation forecasts with the hydrological model would have the advantage of extra lead time and serve as a valuable reference for operating reservoirs.

  11. Technology and demand forecasting for carbon capture and storage technology in South Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shin, Jungwoo; Lee, Chul-Yong; Kim, Hongbum

    2016-01-01

    Among the various alternatives available to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, carbon capture and storage (CCS) is considered to be a prospective technology that could both improve economic growth and meet GHG emission reduction targets. Despite the importance of CCS, however, studies of technology and demand forecasting for CCS are scarce. This study bridges this gap in the body of knowledge on this topic by forecasting CCS technology and demand based on an integrated model. For technology forecasting, a logistic model and patent network analysis are used to compare the competitiveness of CCS technology for selected countries. For demand forecasting, a competition diffusion model is adopted to consider competition among renewable energies and forecast demand. The results show that the number of patent applications for CCS technology will increase to 16,156 worldwide and to 4,790 in Korea by 2025. We also find that the United States has the most competitive CCS technology followed by Korea and France. Moreover, about 5 million tCO 2 e of GHG will be reduced by 2040 if CCS technology is adopted in Korea after 2020. - Highlights: • Carbon capture and storage (CCS) can help mitigate climate change globally. • It can both improve economic growth and meet GHG emission reduction targets. • We forecast CCS technology and demand based on an integrated model. • The US has the most competitive CCS technology followed by Korea and France. • 5 million tCO 2 e of GHG will be reduced by 2040 if CCS is adopted in Korea.

  12. Assessing Teacher Technology Skills.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Mary Alice

    2000-01-01

    Advocates the assessment of teachers' technology skills by school media and technology specialists who are involved in staff training. Discusses what should be assessed, including level of curricular integration and attitudes; assessment objectives; informal assessments; formal assessments; assessment tools; and administrators as role models for…

  13. Assessing Hourly Precipitation Forecast Skill with the Fractions Skill Score

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Bin; Zhang, Bo

    2018-02-01

    Statistical methods for category (yes/no) forecasts, such as the Threat Score, are typically used in the verification of precipitation forecasts. However, these standard methods are affected by the so-called "double-penalty" problem caused by slight displacements in either space or time with respect to the observations. Spatial techniques have recently been developed to help solve this problem. The fractions skill score (FSS), a neighborhood spatial verification method, directly compares the fractional coverage of events in windows surrounding the observations and forecasts. We applied the FSS to hourly precipitation verification by taking hourly forecast products from the GRAPES (Global/Regional Assimilation Prediction System) regional model and quantitative precipitation estimation products from the National Meteorological Information Center of China during July and August 2016, and investigated the difference between these results and those obtained with the traditional category score. We found that the model spin-up period affected the assessment of stability. Systematic errors had an insignificant role in the fraction Brier score and could be ignored. The dispersion of observations followed a diurnal cycle and the standard deviation of the forecast had a similar pattern to the reference maximum of the fraction Brier score. The coefficient of the forecasts and the observations is similar to the FSS; that is, the FSS may be a useful index that can be used to indicate correlation. Compared with the traditional skill score, the FSS has obvious advantages in distinguishing differences in precipitation time series, especially in the assessment of heavy rainfall.

  14. Reference Scenario Forecasting: A New Approach to Transport Project Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen; Skougaard, Britt Zoëga

    2010-01-01

    forecasting (RSF) frame. The RSF is anchored in the cost-benefit analysis (CBA), thus, it provides decision-makers with a quantitative mean of assessing the transport infrastructure project. First, the RSF method introduces uncertainties within the CBA by applying Optimism Bias uplifts on the preliminary...... construction cost estimates. Hereafter, a quantitative risk analysis is provided making use of Monte Carlo simulation. This stochastic approach facilitates random input parameters based upon reference class forecasting, hence, a parameter data fit has been performed in order to obtain validated probability......This paper presents a new approach to transport project assessment in terms of feasibility risk assessment and reference class forecasting. Normally, transport project assessment is based upon a cost-benefit approach where evaluation criteria such as net present values are obtained. Recent research...

  15. Transport project evaluation: feasibility risk assessment and scenario forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2017-01-01

    Scenario Forecasting (RSF) frame. The RSF is anchored in the cost-benefit analysis; thus, it provides decision-makers with a quantitative mean of assessing the transport infrastructure project. First, the RSF method introduces uncertainties within the CBA by applying Optimism Bias uplifts...... on the preliminary construction cost estimates. Hereafter, a quantitative risk analysis is provided making use of Monte Carlo simulation. This approach facilitates random input parameters based upon reference class forecasting, hence, a parameter data fit has been performed in order to obtain validated probability......This paper presents a new approach to transport project assessment in terms of feasibility risk assessment and reference class forecasting. Conventionally, transport project assessment is based upon a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) where evaluation criteria such as Benefit Cost Ratios (BCR...

  16. Recent advances in flood forecasting and flood risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Arduino

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent large floods in Europe have led to increased interest in research and development of flood forecasting systems. Some of these events have been provoked by some of the wettest rainfall periods on record which has led to speculation that such extremes are attributable in some measure to anthropogenic global warming and represent the beginning of a period of higher flood frequency. Whilst current trends in extreme event statistics will be difficult to discern, conclusively, there has been a substantial increase in the frequency of high floods in the 20th century for basins greater than 2x105 km2. There is also increasing that anthropogenic forcing of climate change may lead to an increased probability of extreme precipitation and, hence, of flooding. There is, therefore, major emphasis on the improvement of operational flood forecasting systems in Europe, with significant European Community spending on research and development on prototype forecasting systems and flood risk management projects. This Special Issue synthesises the most relevant scientific and technological results presented at the International Conference on Flood Forecasting in Europe held in Rotterdam from 3-5 March 2003. During that meeting 150 scientists, forecasters and stakeholders from four continents assembled to present their work and current operational best practice and to discuss future directions of scientific and technological efforts in flood prediction and prevention. The papers presented at the conference fall into seven themes, as follows.

  17. A Multi-scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamann, Hendrik F. [IBM, Yorktown Heights, NY (United States). Thomas J. Watson Research Center

    2017-05-31

    The goal of the project was the development and demonstration of a significantly improved solar forecasting technology (short: Watt-sun), which leverages new big data processing technologies and machine-learnt blending between different models and forecast systems. The technology aimed demonstrating major advances in accuracy as measured by existing and new metrics which themselves were developed as part of this project. Finally, the team worked with Independent System Operators (ISOs) and utilities to integrate the forecasts into their operations.

  18. Assessing the need for better forecasting and observability of pv

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alet, Pierre-Jean; Efthymiou, Venizelos; Graditi, Giorgio

    2017-01-01

    In its review of the challenges and opportunities associated with massive deployment of solar PV generation, the Grid integration working group of the ETIP PV identified forecasting and observability as critical technologies for the planning and operation of the power system with large PV...

  19. The social function of technology assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huddle, F. P.

    1972-01-01

    The problem of preserving the uneasy balance between a dynamic society and the equilibrium of man-environment society is discussed. Four sets of activities involved in technology assessment are considered: (1) Technology forecasting is necessary to warn of future dangers and opportunities, for effective timing, and to identify tradeoffs and alternatives. But forecasting is also chancy at best. (2) Social indicators need to be developed for the characterization of social status and measurement of social progress, as well as a better understanding of social needs. (3) With respect to technology assessment, the conflict between profitable directions of innovations and socially desirable directions is described, and a systematic way is needed to determine in advance what is technologically feasible to meet social needs. (4) National goals with respect to scientific and technological developments are also required.

  20. ASSESSING AND FORECASTING, BY PLAY, NATURAL GAS ULTIMATE RECOVERY GROWTH AND QUANTIFYING THE ROLE OF TECHNOLOGY ADVANCEMENTS IN THE TEXAS GULF COAST BASIN AND EAST TEXAS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    William L. Fisher; Eugene M. Kim

    2000-12-01

    A detailed natural gas ultimate recovery growth (URG) analysis of the Texas Gulf Coast Basin and East Texas has been undertaken. The key to such analysis was determined to be the disaggregation of the resource base to the play level. A play is defined as a conceptual geologic unit having one or more reservoirs that can be genetically related on the basis of depositional origin of the reservoir, structural or trap style, source rocks and hydrocarbon generation, migration mechanism, seals for entrapment, and type of hydrocarbon produced. Plays are the geologically homogeneous subdivision of the universe of petroleum pools within a basin. Therefore, individual plays have unique geological features that can be used as a conceptual model that incorporates geologic processes and depositional environments to explain the distribution of petroleum. Play disaggregation revealed important URG trends for the major natural gas fields in the Texas Gulf Coast Basin and East Texas. Although significant growth and future potential were observed for the major fields, important URG trends were masked by total, aggregated analysis based on a broad geological province. When disaggregated by plays, significant growth and future potential were displayed for plays that were associated with relatively recently discovered fields, deeper reservoir depths, high structural complexities due to fault compartmentalization, reservoirs designated as tight gas/low-permeability, and high initial reservoir pressures. Continued technology applications and advancements are crucial in achieving URG potential in these plays.

  1. Forecasting and observability: critical technologies for system operations with high PV penetration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alet, Pierre-Jean; Efthymiou, Venizelos; Graditi, Giorgio

    2016-01-01

    Forecasting and monitoring technologies for photovoltaics are required on different spatial and temporal scales by multiple actors, from the owners of PV systems to transmission system operators. In this paper the Grid integration working group of the European Technology and Innovation Platform –...... for a cost/benefit analysis since the forecasting error can be linked to the prices charged for energy imbalance......Forecasting and monitoring technologies for photovoltaics are required on different spatial and temporal scales by multiple actors, from the owners of PV systems to transmission system operators. In this paper the Grid integration working group of the European Technology and Innovation Platform...... – Photovoltaics (ETIP PV) reviews the different use cases for these technologies, their current status, and the need for future developments. Power system operations require a real-time view of PV production for managing power reserves and for feeding shortterm forecasts. They also require forecasts on all...

  2. Uncertainty assessment via Bayesian revision of ensemble streamflow predictions in the operational river Rhine forecasting system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reggiani, P.; Renner, M.; Weerts, A.H.; Van Gelder, P.A.H.J.M.

    2009-01-01

    Ensemble streamflow forecasts obtained by using hydrological models with ensemble weather products are becoming more frequent in operational flow forecasting. The uncertainty of the ensemble forecast needs to be assessed for these products to become useful in forecasting operations. A comprehensive

  3. Robotic Technology: An Assessment and Forecast,

    Science.gov (United States)

    1984-07-01

    competitiveness of this industry requires the . .. use of the most cost-effective manufacturing techniques available. Beyond cost-effectiveness, sheer ...It 4-1 (1983). Nagel* R., ’ Robots: Not Yet Smart Enough.’ IEEE Spectrum 20, 78 (1983). Schwartz. J. and Sharir, ’On the Piano Movers’ Problem: V. The

  4. Superconducting Technology Assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2005-01-01

    This Superconducting Technology Assessment (STA) has been conducted by the National Security Agency to address the fundamental question of a potential replacement for silicon complementary metal oxide semiconductor (CMOS...

  5. Assessments of Total Lightning Data Utility in Weather Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buechler, Dennis E.; Goodman, Steve; LaCasse, Katherine; Blakeslee, Richard; Darden, Chris

    2005-01-01

    National Weather Service forecasters in Huntsville, Alabama have had access to total lightning data from the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) since 2003. Forecasters can monitor real-time total lightning observations on their AWIPS (Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) workstations. The lightning data is used to supplement other observations such as radar and satellite data. The lightning data is updated every 2 min, providing more timely evidence of storm growth or decay than is available from 5 min radar scans. Total lightning observations have been used to positively impact warning decisions in a number of instances. A number of approaches are being pursued to assess the usefulness of total lightning measurements to the operational forecasting community in the warning decision process. These approaches, which include both qualitative and quantitative assessment methods, will be discussed. submitted to the American Meteorological Society (AMS) Conference on Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data to be held in San Diego, CA January 9-13,2005. This will be a presentation and an extended abstract will be published on a CD available from the AMS.

  6. Review of methods for forecasting the market penetration of new technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gilshannon, S.T.; Brown, D.R.

    1996-12-01

    In 1993 the DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EE) initiated a program called Quality Metrics. Quality Metrics was developed to measure the costs and benefits of technologies being developed by EE R&D programs. The impact of any new technology is directly related to its adoption by the market. The techniques employed to project market adoption are critical to measuring a new technology`s impact. Our purpose was to review current market penetration theories and models and develop a recommended approach for evaluating the market penetration of DOE technologies. The following commonly cited innovation diffusion theories were reviewed to identify analytical approaches relevant to new energy technologies: (1) the normal noncumulative adopter distribution method, (2) the Bass Model, (3) the Mansfield-Blackman Model, (4) the Fisher-Pry Model, (5) a meta-analysis of innovation diffusion studies. Of the theories reviewed, the Bass and Mansfield-Blackman models were found most applicable to forecasting the market penetration of electricity supply technologies. Their algorithms require input estimates which characterize the technology adoption behavior of the electricity supply industry. But, inadequate work has been done to quantify the technology adoption characteristics of this industry. The following energy technology market penetration models were also reviewed: (1) DOE`s Renewable Energy Penetration (REP) Model, (2) DOE`s Electricity Capacity Planning Submodule of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), (3) the Assessment of Energy Technologies (ASSET) model by Regional Economic Research, Inc., (4) the Market TREK model by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). The two DOE models were developed for electricity generation technologies whereas the Regional Economic Research and EPRI models were designed for demand- side energy technology markets. Therefore, the review and evaluation focused on the DOE models.

  7. Information technology resources assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stevens, D.F. [ed.

    1992-01-01

    This year`s Information Technology Resources Assessment (ITRA) is something of a departure from traditional practice. Past assessments have concentrated on developments in fundamental technology, particularly with respect to hardware. They form an impressive chronicle of decreasing cycle times, increasing densities, decreasing costs (or, equivalently, increasing capacity and capability per dollar spent), and new system architectures, with a leavening of operating systems and languages. Past assessments have aimed -- and succeeded -- at putting information technology squarely in the spotlight; by contrast, in the first part of this assessment, we would like to move it to the background, and encourage the reader to reflect less on the continuing technological miracles of miniaturization in space and time and more on the second- and third-order implications of some possible workplace applications of these miracles. This Information Technology Resources Assessment is intended to provide a sense of technological direction for planners in projecting the hardware, software, and human resources necessary to support the diverse IT requirements of the various components of the DOE community. It is also intended to provide a sense of our new understanding of the place of IT in our organizations.

  8. Information technology resources assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stevens, D.F. (ed.)

    1992-01-01

    This year's Information Technology Resources Assessment (ITRA) is something of a departure from traditional practice. Past assessments have concentrated on developments in fundamental technology, particularly with respect to hardware. They form an impressive chronicle of decreasing cycle times, increasing densities, decreasing costs (or, equivalently, increasing capacity and capability per dollar spent), and new system architectures, with a leavening of operating systems and languages. Past assessments have aimed -- and succeeded -- at putting information technology squarely in the spotlight; by contrast, in the first part of this assessment, we would like to move it to the background, and encourage the reader to reflect less on the continuing technological miracles of miniaturization in space and time and more on the second- and third-order implications of some possible workplace applications of these miracles. This Information Technology Resources Assessment is intended to provide a sense of technological direction for planners in projecting the hardware, software, and human resources necessary to support the diverse IT requirements of the various components of the DOE community. It is also intended to provide a sense of our new understanding of the place of IT in our organizations.

  9. Health care technology assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodman, Clifford

    1994-12-01

    The role of technology in the cost of health care is a primary issue in current debates concerning national health care reform. The broad scope of studies for understanding technological impacts is known as technology assessment. Technology policy makers can improve their decision making by becoming more aware, and taking greater advantage, of key trends in health care technology assessment (HCTA). HCTA is the systematic evaluation of the properties, impacts, and other attributes of health care technologies, including: technical performance; clinical safety and efficacy/effectiveness; cost-effectiveness and other economic attributes; appropriate circumstances/indications for use; and social, legal, ethical, and political impacts. The main purpose of HCTA is to inform technology-related policy making in health care. Among the important trends in HCTA are: (1) proliferation of HCTA groups in the public and private sectors; (2) higher standards for scientific evidence concerning technologies; (3) methodological development in cost analyses, health-related quality of life measurement, and consolidation of available scientific evidence (e.g., meta-analysis); (4) emphasis on improved data on how well technologies work in routine practice and for traditionally under-represented patient groups; (5) development of priority-setting methods; (6) greater reliance on medical informatics to support and disseminate HCTA findings.

  10. Review of methods for forecasting the market penetration of new technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilshannon, S.T.; Brown, D.R.

    1996-12-01

    In 1993 the DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EE) initiated a program called Quality Metrics. Quality Metrics was developed to measure the costs and benefits of technologies being developed by EE R ampersand D programs. The impact of any new technology is directly related to its adoption by the market. The techniques employed to project market adoption are critical to measuring a new technology's impact. Our purpose was to review current market penetration theories and models and develop a recommended approach for evaluating the market penetration of DOE technologies. The following commonly cited innovation diffusion theories were reviewed to identify analytical approaches relevant to new energy technologies: (1) the normal noncumulative adopter distribution method, (2) the Bass Model, (3) the Mansfield-Blackman Model, (4) the Fisher-Pry Model, (5) a meta-analysis of innovation diffusion studies. Of the theories reviewed, the Bass and Mansfield-Blackman models were found most applicable to forecasting the market penetration of electricity supply technologies. Their algorithms require input estimates which characterize the technology adoption behavior of the electricity supply industry. But, inadequate work has been done to quantify the technology adoption characteristics of this industry. The following energy technology market penetration models were also reviewed: (1) DOE's Renewable Energy Penetration (REP) Model, (2) DOE's Electricity Capacity Planning Submodule of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), (3) the Assessment of Energy Technologies (ASSET) model by Regional Economic Research, Inc., (4) the Market TREK model by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). The two DOE models were developed for electricity generation technologies whereas the Regional Economic Research and EPRI models were designed for demand- side energy technology markets. Therefore, the review and evaluation focused on the DOE models

  11. Past speculations of future health technologies: a description of technologies predicted in 15 forecasting studies published between 1986 and 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doos, Lucy; Packer, Claire; Ward, Derek; Simpson, Sue; Stevens, Andrew

    2017-07-31

    To describe and classify health technologies predicted in forecasting studies. A portrait describing health technologies predicted in 15 forecasting studies published between 1986 and 2010 that were identified in a previous systematic review. Health technologies are classified according to their type, purpose and clinical use; relating these to the original purpose and timing of the forecasting studies. All health-related technologies predicted in 15 forecasting studies identified in a previously published systematic review. Outcomes related to (1) each forecasting study including country, year, intention and forecasting methods used and (2) the predicted technologies including technology type, purpose, targeted clinical area and forecast timeframe. Of the 896 identified health-related technologies, 685 (76.5%) were health technologies with an explicit or implied health application and included in our study. Of these, 19.1% were diagnostic or imaging tests, 14.3% devices or biomaterials, 12.6% information technology systems, eHealth or mHealth and 12% drugs. The majority of the technologies were intended to treat or manage disease (38.1%) or diagnose or monitor disease (26.1%). The most frequent targeted clinical areas were infectious diseases followed by cancer, circulatory and nervous system disorders. The most frequent technology types were for: infectious diseases-prophylactic vaccines (45.8%), cancer-drugs (40%), circulatory disease-devices and biomaterials (26.3%), and diseases of the nervous system-equally devices and biomaterials (25%) and regenerative medicine (25%). The mean timeframe for forecasting was 11.6 years (range 0-33 years, median=10, SD=6.6). The forecasting timeframe significantly differed by technology type (p=0.002), the intent of the forecasting group (p<0.001) and the methods used (p<001). While description and classification of predicted health-related technologies is crucial in preparing healthcare systems for adopting new innovations

  12. Space power needs and forecasted technologies for the 1990s and beyond

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buden, D.; Albert, T.

    1987-01-01

    A new generation of reactors for electric power will be available for space missions to satisfy military and civilian needs in the 1990s and beyond. To ensure a useful product, nuclear power plant development must be cognizant of other space power technologies. Major advances in solar and chemical technologies need to be considered in establishing the goals of future nuclear power plants. In addition, the mission needs are evolving into new regimes. Civilian and military power needs are forecasted to exceed anything used in space to date. Technology trend forecasts have been mapped as a function of time for solar, nuclear, chemical, and storage systems to illustrate areas where each technology provides minimum mass. Other system characteristics may dominate the usefulness of a technology on a given mission. This paper will discuss some of these factors, as well as forecast future military and civilian power needs and the status of technologies for the 1990s and 2000s. 6 references

  13. Beating the random walk: a performance assessment of long-term interest rate forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    den Butter, F.A.G.; Jansen, P.W.

    2013-01-01

    This article assesses the performance of a number of long-term interest rate forecast approaches, namely time series models, structural economic models, expert forecasts and combinations thereof. The predictive performance of these approaches is compared using outside sample forecast errors, where a

  14. Bidding strategy with forecast technology based on support vector machine in the electricity market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Ciwei; Bompard, Ettore; Napoli, Roberto; Wan, Qiulan; Zhou, Jian

    2008-06-01

    The participants in the electricity market are concerned very much with the market price evolution. Various technologies have been developed for price forecasting. The SVM (Support Vector Machine) has shown its good performance in market price forecasting. Two approaches for forming the market bidding strategies based on SVM are proposed. One is based on the price forecasting accuracy, with which the rejection risk is defined. The other takes into account the impact of the producer’s own bid. The risks associated with the bidding are controlled by the parameter settings. The proposed approaches have been tested on a numerical example.

  15. Information technology resources assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Loken, S.C. [ed.

    1993-01-01

    The emphasis in Information Technology (IT) development has shifted from technology management to information management, and the tools of information management are increasingly at the disposal of end-users, people who deal with information. Moreover, the interactive capabilities of technologies such as hypertext, scientific visualization, virtual reality, video conferencing, and even database management systems have placed in the hands of users a significant amount of discretion over how these resources will be used. The emergence of high-performance networks, as well as network operating systems, improved interoperability, and platform independence of applications will eliminate technical barriers to the use of data, increase the power and range of resources that can be used cooperatively, and open up a wealth of possibilities for new applications. The very scope of these prospects for the immediate future is a problem for the IT planner or administrator. Technology procurement and implementation, integration of new technologies into the existing infrastructure, cost recovery and usage of networks and networked resources, training issues, and security concerns such as data protection and access to experiments are just some of the issues that need to be considered in the emerging IT environment. As managers we must use technology to improve competitiveness. When procuring new systems, we must take advantage of scalable resources. New resources such as distributed file systems can improve access to and efficiency of existing operating systems. In addition, we must assess opportunities to improve information worker productivity and information management through tedmologies such as distributed computational visualization and teleseminar applications.

  16. New Technology Trends in Education: Seven Years of Forecasts and Convergence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Sergio; Diaz, Gabriel; Sancristobal, Elio; Gil, Rosario; Castro, Manuel; Peire, Juan

    2011-01-01

    Each year since 2004, a new Horizon Report has been released. Each edition attempts to forecast the most promising technologies likely to impact on education along three horizons: the short term (the year of the report), the mid-term (the next 2 years) and the long term (the next 4 years). This paper analyzes the evolution of technology trends…

  17. PATTERNS OF SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT AND THEIR USE IN FORECASTING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. I. Komkov

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In article laws of scientifically-technological development are considered. Their number concern traditional, base and new, formed. Possibilities and ways of the account of the listed laws are shown at forecasting of prospects of scientifically-technological development.

  18. A quality assessment of the MARS crop yield forecasting system for the European Union

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Velde, Marijn; Bareuth, Bettina

    2015-04-01

    Timely information on crop production forecasts can become of increasing importance as commodity markets are more and more interconnected. Impacts across large crop production areas due to (e.g.) extreme weather and pest outbreaks can create ripple effects that may affect food prices and availability elsewhere. The MARS Unit (Monitoring Agricultural ResourceS), DG Joint Research Centre, European Commission, has been providing forecasts of European crop production levels since 1993. The operational crop production forecasting is carried out with the MARS Crop Yield Forecasting System (M-CYFS). The M-CYFS is used to monitor crop growth development, evaluate short-term effects of anomalous meteorological events, and provide monthly forecasts of crop yield at national and European Union level. The crop production forecasts are published in the so-called MARS bulletins. Forecasting crop yield over large areas in the operational context requires quality benchmarks. Here we present an analysis of the accuracy and skill of past crop yield forecasts of the main crops (e.g. soft wheat, grain maize), throughout the growing season, and specifically for the final forecast before harvest. Two simple benchmarks to assess the skill of the forecasts were defined as comparing the forecasts to 1) a forecast equal to the average yield and 2) a forecast using a linear trend established through the crop yield time-series. These reveal a variability in performance as a function of crop and Member State. In terms of production, the yield forecasts of 67% of the EU-28 soft wheat production and 80% of the EU-28 maize production have been forecast superior to both benchmarks during the 1993-2013 period. In a changing and increasingly variable climate crop yield forecasts can become increasingly valuable - provided they are used wisely. We end our presentation by discussing research activities that could contribute to this goal.

  19. Forecasting and observability: critical technologies for system operations with high PV penetration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alet, Pierre-Jean; Efthymiou, Venizelos; Graditi, Giorgio

    2016-01-01

    Forecasting and monitoring technologies for photovoltaics are required on different spatial and temporal scales by multiple actors, from the owners of PV systems to transmission system operators. In this paper the Grid integration working group of the European Technology and Innovation Platform...... – Photovoltaics (ETIP PV) reviews the different use cases for these technologies, their current status, and the need for future developments. Power system operations require a real-time view of PV production for managing power reserves and for feeding shortterm forecasts. They also require forecasts on all...... timescales from the short (for dispatching purposes), where statistical models work best, to the very long (for infrastructure planning), where physics-based models are more accurate. Power system regulations are driving the development of these techniques. This application also provides a good basis...

  20. An Assessment of the Subseasonal Forecast Performance in the Extended Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinsky, E.; Zhu, Y.; Li, W.; Guan, H.; Melhauser, C.

    2017-12-01

    Optimal forecast quality is crucial for the preservation of life and property. Improving monthly forecast performance over both the tropics and extra-tropics requires attention to various physical aspects such as the representation of the underlying SST, model physics and the representation of the model physics uncertainty for an ensemble forecast system. This work focuses on the impact of stochastic physics, SST and the convection scheme on forecast performance for the sub-seasonal scale over the tropics and extra-tropics with emphasis on the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). A 2-year period is evaluated using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). Three experiments with different configurations than the operational GEFS were performed to illustrate the impact of the stochastic physics, SST and convection scheme. These experiments are compared against a control experiment (CTL) which consists of the operational GEFS but its integration is extended from 16 to 35 days. The three configurations are: 1) SPs, which uses a Stochastically Perturbed Physics Tendencies (SPPT), Stochastic Perturbed Humidity (SHUM) and Stochastic Kinetic Energy Backscatter (SKEB); 2) SPs+SST_bc, which uses a combination of SPs and a bias-corrected forecast SST from the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2); and 3) SPs+SST_bc+SA_CV, which combines SPs, a bias-corrected forecast SST and a scale aware convection scheme. When comparing to the CTL experiment, SPs shows substantial improvement. The MJO skill has improved by about 4 lead days during the 2-year period. Improvement is also seen over the extra-tropics due to the updated stochastic physics, where there is a 3.1% and a 4.2% improvement during weeks 3 and 4 over the northern hemisphere and southern hemisphere, respectively. Improvement is also seen when the bias-corrected CFSv2 SST is combined with SPs. Additionally, forecast performance enhances when the scale aware

  1. Heap Leaching: Modelling and Forecasting Using CFD Technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diane McBride

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Heap leach operations typically employ some form of modelling and forecasting tools to predict cash flow margins and project viability. However, these vary from simple spreadsheets to phenomenological models, with more complex models not commonly employed as they require the greatest amount of time and effort. Yet, accurate production modelling and forecasting are essential for managing production and potentially critical for successful operation of a complex heap, time and effort spent in setting up modelling tools initially may increase profitability in the long term. A brief overview of various modelling approaches is presented, but this paper focuses on the capabilities of a computational fluid dynamics (CFD model. Advances in computational capability allow for complex CFD models, coupled with leach kinetic models, to be applied to complex ore bodies. In this paper a comprehensive hydrodynamic CFD model is described and applied to chalcopyrite dissolution under heap operating conditions. The model is parameterized against experimental data and validated against a range of experimental leach tests under different thermal conditions. A three-dimensional ‘virtual’ heap, under fluctuating meteorological conditions, is simulated. Continuous and intermittent irrigation is investigated, showing copper recovery per unit volume of applied leach solution to be slightly increased for pulse irrigation.

  2. Statistical and RBF NN models : providing forecasts and risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Marček, Milan

    2009-01-01

    Forecast accuracy of economic and financial processes is a popular measure for quantifying the risk in decision making. In this paper, we develop forecasting models based on statistical (stochastic) methods, sometimes called hard computing, and on a soft method using granular computing. We consider the accuracy of forecasting models as a measure for risk evaluation. It is found that the risk estimation process based on soft methods is simplified and less critical to the question w...

  3. Technological forecasting a long time of the scientific-technological development of the nuclear fusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schettert, Plinio G.; Oliveira, Wagner S.; Aquino, Afonso R.

    2009-01-01

    With base in the introduction in long time of the nuclear fusion inside of a system of viable energy, taking in consideration economic factors, would imply on investment in a long period. The objective of this project utilizing the method of the Delphi technique is the technological forecast a long time of the scientific-technological development of the nuclear fusion and its impact. This research project will be carried through different stages of improvement of variables. A questionnaire based on information and analysis of the literature validated for specialists in nuclear fusion becomes this project a tool in the elaboration future of a database contends variables on the theme nuclear fusion and its perspectives. The database will be composed for the answers and suggestions obtained, with exploratory and extrapolatory elements, on the theme a great number of specialists involving in the nuclear fusion area. The database is analyzed for the configuration of variables that represent elements as scientific-technological factors, economical, political, social and environmental among others. As final result of the research with the Delphi technique, different scenes obtained with the variables will be indicated by convergent factors or not on the approached perspectives. The analysis of the data will be possible through of improve of statistical analysis tools. This is the first analyzes of the answers. The questionnaire was validated with nuclear fusion specialists from the Institute of Physics of the University of Sao Paulo in Brazil and the Center of Nuclear Fusion of the Technical University of Lisbon in Portugal. (author)

  4. An Interval Estimation Method of Patent Keyword Data for Sustainable Technology Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daiho Uhm

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Technology forecasting (TF is forecasting the future state of a technology. It is exciting to know the future of technologies, because technology changes the way we live and enhances the quality of our lives. In particular, TF is an important area in the management of technology (MOT for R&D strategy and new product development. Consequently, there are many studies on TF. Patent analysis is one method of TF because patents contain substantial information regarding developed technology. The conventional methods of patent analysis are based on quantitative approaches such as statistics and machine learning. The most traditional TF methods based on patent analysis have a common problem. It is the sparsity of patent keyword data structured from collected patent documents. After preprocessing with text mining techniques, most frequencies of technological keywords in patent data have values of zero. This problem creates a disadvantage for the performance of TF, and we have trouble analyzing patent keyword data. To solve this problem, we propose an interval estimation method (IEM. Using an adjusted Wald confidence interval called the Agresti–Coull confidence interval, we construct our IEM for efficient TF. In addition, we apply the proposed method to forecast the technology of an innovative company. To show how our work can be applied in the real domain, we conduct a case study using Apple technology.

  5. First Assessment of Itaipu Dam Ensemble Inflow Forecasting System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mainardi Fan, Fernando; Machado Vieira Lisboa, Auder; Gomes Villa Trinidad, Giovanni; Rógenes Monteiro Pontes, Paulo; Collischonn, Walter; Tucci, Carlos; Costa Buarque, Diogo

    2017-04-01

    Inflow forecasting for Hydropower Plants (HPP) Dams is one of the prominent uses for hydrological forecasts. A very important HPP in terms of energy generation for South America is the Itaipu Dam, located in the Paraná River, between Brazil and Paraguay countries, with a drainage area of 820.000km2. In this work, we present the development of an ensemble forecasting system for Itaipu, operational since November 2015. The system is based in the MGB-IPH hydrological model, includes hydrodynamics simulations of the main river, and is run every day morning forced by seven different rainfall forecasts: (i) CPTEC-ETA 15km; (ii) CPTEC-BRAMS 5km; (iii) SIMEPAR WRF Ferrier; (iv) SIMEPAR WRF Lin; (v) SIMEPAR WRF Morrison; (vi) SIMEPAR WRF WDM6; (vii) SIMEPAR MEDIAN. The last one (vii) corresponds to the median value of SIMEPAR WRF model versions (iii to vi) rainfall forecasts. Besides the developed system, the "traditional" method for inflow forecasting generation for the Itaipu Dam is also run every day. This traditional method consists in the approximation of the future inflow based on the discharge tendency of upstream telemetric gauges. Nowadays, after all the forecasts are run, the hydrology team of Itaipu develop a consensus forecast, based on all obtained results, which is the one used for the Itaipu HPP Dam operation. After one year of operation a first evaluation of the Ensemble Forecasting System was conducted. Results show that the system performs satisfactory for rising flows up to five days lead time. However, some false alarms were also issued by most ensemble members in some cases. And not in all cases the system performed better than the traditional method, especially during hydrograph recessions. In terms of meteorological forecasts, some members usage are being discontinued. In terms of the hydrodynamics representation, it seems that a better information of rivers cross section could improve hydrographs recession curves forecasts. Those opportunities for

  6. Multidisciplinary studies of the social, economic and political impact resulting from recent advances in satellite meteorology. Volume 6: Executive summary. [technological forecasting spacecraft control/attitude (inclination) -classical mechanics

    Science.gov (United States)

    1975-01-01

    An assessment of the technological impact of modern satellite weather forecasting for the United States is presented. Topics discussed are: (1) television broadcasting of weather; (2) agriculture (crop production); (3) water resources; (4) urban development; (5) recreation; and (6) transportation.

  7. Approaches, techniques, and information technology systems in the restaurants and foodservice industry: a qualitative study in sales forecasting.

    OpenAIRE

    Green, Yvette N. J.; Weaver, Pamela A.

    2008-01-01

    This is a study of the approaches, techniques, and information technology systems utilized for restaurant sales forecasting in the full-service restaurant segment. Companies were examined using a qualitative research methods design and long interviews to gather information on approaches, techniques, and technology systems utilized in the sales forecasting process. The results of the interviews were presented along with ensuing discussion.

  8. Particle-Reinforced Aluminum Matrix Composites (AMCs—Selected Results of an Integrated Technology, User, and Market Analysis and Forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anja Schmidt

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The research and development of new materials such as particle-reinforced aluminum matrix composites (AMCs will only result in a successful innovation if these materials show significant advantages not only from a technological, but also from an economic point of view. Against this background, in the Collaborative Research Center SFB 692, the concept of an integrated technology, user, and market analysis and forecast has been developed as a means for assessing the technological and commercial potential of new materials in early life cycle stages. After briefly describing this concept, it is applied to AMCs and the potential field of manufacturing aircraft components. Results show not only technological advances, but also considerable economic potential—the latter one primarily resulting from the possible weight reduction being enabled by the increased yield strength of the new material.

  9. Forecast of ecological influence from shale gas mining technologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ксенія Юріївна Терентьєва

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Environmental risks and the reasons a for their formation are examined on example of Olesk shale area. The harmonization of the approaches that already exist in practice is attempted, to assess the impact of shale gas on the environment. Methodological aspects of impact assessment are presented based on the determination of three parameters: spatial, temporal and intensity of exposure

  10. Wind Resource Assessment and Forecast Planning with Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolus K. Rotich

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we built three types of artificial neural networks, namely: Feed forward networks, Elman networks and Cascade forward networks, for forecasting wind speeds and directions. A similar network topology was used for all the forecast horizons, regardless of the model type. All the models were then trained with real data of collected wind speeds and directions over a period of two years in the municipal of Puumala, Finland. Up to 70th percentile of the data was used for training, validation and testing, while 71–85th percentile was presented to the trained models for validation. The model outputs were then compared to the last 15% of the original data, by measuring the statistical errors between them. The feed forward networks returned the lowest errors for wind speeds. Cascade forward networks gave the lowest errors for wind directions; Elman networks returned the lowest errors when used for short term forecasting.

  11. SWIFTER - Space Weather Informatics, Forecasting, and Technology through Enabling Research and Virtual Organizations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaefer, R. K.; Morrison, D.; Paxton, L.; Holm, J.; Weiss, M.; Hsieh, S.

    2009-05-01

    SWIFTER will build a virtual organization to enable collaboration among research, military, and commercial communities to find new ways to understand, characterize, and forecast space weather to meet the needs of our technology based society. In this paper we discuss how knowledge is shared in organizations and how a virtual organization can be formed. A key element of a "virtual" organization is that it is a fluid collection of members that share some means of communicating relevant information among some of its members. The members also share ideas in evolution (such as analysis, new technologies, and predictive trending). As concepts mature they can be matured or discarded more quickly as the power of the network is brought to bear early and often. Space weather, the changes in the near-Earth space environment, is important to a wide range of users as well as the public. The public is interested in a variety of phenomena including meteors, solar flares, the aurora, noctilucent clouds and climate change. Industry focus tends to be on more concrete problems such as ground-induced currents in power lines and communications with aircraft in transpolar routes as well as geolocation (i.e. the use of GPS systems to precisely map a function to a position). Other government-oriented users service specialized communities who may be more or less unaware of the research and development upon which the forecasts or nowcasts rely for accuracy. The basic research community may be more or less unaware of the details of the applications, or potential applications of their research. The problem, then, is that each of these constituencies may share elements in common but there is no umbrella organization that ties them together, nor is there likely to be such an organization. Our goal in this paper is to outline a scheme for a virtual organization, delineate the functions of that VO and illustrate how it might be formed. We also will assess the barriers to knowledge transfer that

  12. Technology Performance Level Assessment Methodology.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roberts, Jesse D.; Bull, Diana L; Malins, Robert Joseph; Costello, Ronan Patrick; Aurelien Babarit; Kim Nielsen; Claudio Bittencourt Ferreira; Ben Kennedy; Kathryn Dykes; Jochem Weber

    2017-04-01

    The technology performance level (TPL) assessments can be applied at all technology development stages and associated technology readiness levels (TRLs). Even, and particularly, at low TRLs the TPL assessment is very effective as it, holistically, considers a wide range of WEC attributes that determine the techno-economic performance potential of the WEC farm when fully developed for commercial operation. The TPL assessment also highlights potential showstoppers at the earliest possible stage of the WEC technology development. Hence, the TPL assessment identifies the technology independent “performance requirements.” In order to achieve a successful solution, the entirety of the performance requirements within the TPL must be considered because, in the end, all the stakeholder needs must be achieved. The basis for performing a TPL assessment comes from the information provided in a dedicated format, the Technical Submission Form (TSF). The TSF requests information from the WEC developer that is required to answer the questions posed in the TPL assessment document.

  13. Applying the Repertory Grid Method for Technology Forecasting: Civil Unmanned Aviation Systems for Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eimecke Jörgen

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Multistage expert surveys like the Delphi method are proven concepts for technology forecasting that enable the prediction of content-related and temporal development in fields of innovation (e.g., [1, 2]. Advantages of these qualitative multistage methods are a simple and easy to understand concept while still delivering valid results [3]. Nevertheless, the literature also points out certain disadvantages especially in large-scale technology forecasts in particularly abstract fields of innovation [4]. The proposed approach highlights the usefulness of the repertory grid method as an alternative for technology forecasting and as a first step for preference measurement. The basic approach from Baier and Kohler [5] is modified in-so-far that an online survey reduces the cognitive burden for the experts and simplifies the data collection process. Advantages over alternative approaches through its simple structure and through combining qualitative and quantitative methods are shown and an adaption on an actual field of innovation – civil drones in Germany – is done. The measurement of a common terminology for all experts minimizes misunderstandings during the interview and the achievement of an inter-individual comparable level of abstraction is forced by the laddering technique [6] during the interview.

  14. Technological developments in real-time operational hydrologic forecasting in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudlow, Michael D.

    1988-09-01

    The hydrologic forecasting service of the United States spans applications and scales ranging from those associated with the issuance of flood and flash warnings to those pertaining to seasonal water supply forecasts. New technological developments (underway in or planned by the National Weather Service (NWS) in support of the Hydrologic Program) are carried out as combined efforts by NWS headquarters and field personnel in cooperation with other organizations. These developments fall into two categories: hardware and software systems technology, and hydrometeorological analysis and prediction technology. Research, development, and operational implementation in progress in both of these areas are discussed. Cornerstones of an overall NWS modernization effort include implementation of state-of-the-art data acquisition systems (including the Next Generation Weather Radar) and communications and computer processing systems. The NWS Hydrologic Service will capitalize on these systems and will incorporate results from specific hydrologic projects including collection and processing of multivariate data sets, conceptual hydrologic modeling systems, integrated hydrologic modeling systems with meteorological interfaces and automatic updating of model states, and extended streamflow prediction techniques. The salient aspects of ongoing work in these areas are highlighted in this paper, providing some perspective on the future U.S. hydrologic forecasting service and its transitional period into the 1990s.

  15. Turbine imaging technology assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moursund, R. A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Carlson, T. J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2004-12-01

    The goal of this project was to identify and evaluate imaging technologies for observing juvenile fish within a Kaplan turbine, and specifically that would enable scientists to determine mechanisms of fish injury within an operating turbine unit. This report documents the opportunities and constraints for observing juvenile fish at specific locations during turbine passage. These observations were used to make modifications to dam structures and operations to improve conditions for fish passage while maintaining or improving hydropower production. The physical and hydraulic environment that fish experience as they pass through the hydroelectric plants were studied and the regions with the greatest potential for injury were defined. Biological response data were also studied to determine the probable types of injuries sustained in the turbine intake and what types of injuries are detectable with imaging technologies. The study grouped injury-causing mechanisms into two categories: fluid (pressure/cavitation, shear, turbulence) and mechanical (strike/collision, grinding/pinching, scraping). The physical constraints of the environment, together with the likely types of injuries to fish, provided the parameters needed for a rigorous imaging technology evaluation. Types of technology evaluated included both tracking and imaging systems using acoustic technologies (such as sonar and acoustic tags) and optic technologies (such as pulsed-laser videography, which is high-speed videography using a laser as the flash). Criteria for determining image data quality such as frame rate, target detectability, and resolution were used to quantify the minimum requirements of an imaging sensor.

  16. Technology assessment and diagnostic imaging

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Banta, H.D.

    1992-01-01

    In this paper, computerized tomography scanning and magnetic resonance imaging scanning are discussed to illustrate some aspects of health care technology assessment in the field of diagnostic imaging. Technology assessment is defined as a comprehensive form of policy research that examines short-

  17. Transition from Research to Operations: Assessing Value of Experimental Forecast Products within the NWSFO Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lapenta, William M.; Wohlman, Richard; Bradshaw, Tom; Burks, Jason; Jedlovec, Gary; Goodman, Steve; Darden, Chris; Meyer, Paul

    2003-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center seeks to accelerate the infusion of NASA Earth Science Enterprise (ESE) observations, data assimilation and modeling research into NWS forecast operations and decision-making. To meet long-term program expectations, it is not sufficient simply to give forecasters sophisticated workstations or new forecast products without fully assessing the ways in which they will be utilized. Close communication must be established between the research and operational communities so that developers have a complete understanding of user needs. In turn, forecasters must obtain a more comprehensive knowledge of the modeling and sensing tools available to them. A major goal of the SPoRT Program is to develop metrics and conduct assessment studies with NWS forecasters to evaluate the impacts and benefits of ESE experimental products on forecast skill. At a glance the task seems relatively straightforward. However, performing assessment of experimental products in an operational environment is demanding. Given the tremendous time constraints placed on NWS forecasters, it is imperative that forecaster input be obtained in a concise unobtrusive manor. Great care must also be taken to ensure that forecasters understand their participation will eventually benefit them and WFO operations in general. Two requirements of the assessment plan developed under the SPoRT activity are that it 1) Can be implemented within the WFO environment; and 2) Provide tangible results for BOTH the research and operational communities. Supplemental numerical quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) were chosen as the first experimental SPoRT product to be evaluated during a Pilot Assessment Program conducted 1 May 2003 within the Huntsville AL National Weather Service Forecast Office. Forecast time periods were broken up into six- hour bins ranging from zero to twenty-four hours. Data were made available for display in AWIPS on an

  18. Moving beyond the cost-loss ratio: economic assessment of streamflow forecasts for a risk-averse decision maker

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matte, Simon; Boucher, Marie-Amélie; Boucher, Vincent; Fortier Filion, Thomas-Charles

    2017-06-01

    A large effort has been made over the past 10 years to promote the operational use of probabilistic or ensemble streamflow forecasts. Numerous studies have shown that ensemble forecasts are of higher quality than deterministic ones. Many studies also conclude that decisions based on ensemble rather than deterministic forecasts lead to better decisions in the context of flood mitigation. Hence, it is believed that ensemble forecasts possess a greater economic and social value for both decision makers and the general population. However, the vast majority of, if not all, existing hydro-economic studies rely on a cost-loss ratio framework that assumes a risk-neutral decision maker. To overcome this important flaw, this study borrows from economics and evaluates the economic value of early warning flood systems using the well-known Constant Absolute Risk Aversion (CARA) utility function, which explicitly accounts for the level of risk aversion of the decision maker. This new framework allows for the full exploitation of the information related to a forecasts' uncertainty, making it especially suited for the economic assessment of ensemble or probabilistic forecasts. Rather than comparing deterministic and ensemble forecasts, this study focuses on comparing different types of ensemble forecasts. There are multiple ways of assessing and representing forecast uncertainty. Consequently, there exist many different means of building an ensemble forecasting system for future streamflow. One such possibility is to dress deterministic forecasts using the statistics of past error forecasts. Such dressing methods are popular among operational agencies because of their simplicity and intuitiveness. Another approach is the use of ensemble meteorological forecasts for precipitation and temperature, which are then provided as inputs to one or many hydrological model(s). In this study, three concurrent ensemble streamflow forecasting systems are compared: simple statistically dressed

  19. Assessing Variability and Errors in Historical Runoff Forecasting with Physical Models and Alternative Data Sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penn, C. A.; Clow, D. W.; Sexstone, G. A.

    2017-12-01

    Water supply forecasts are an important tool for water resource managers in areas where surface water is relied on for irrigating agricultural lands and for municipal water supplies. Forecast errors, which correspond to inaccurate predictions of total surface water volume, can lead to mis-allocated water and productivity loss, thus costing stakeholders millions of dollars. The objective of this investigation is to provide water resource managers with an improved understanding of factors contributing to forecast error, and to help increase the accuracy of future forecasts. In many watersheds of the western United States, snowmelt contributes 50-75% of annual surface water flow and controls both the timing and volume of peak flow. Water supply forecasts from the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS), National Weather Service, and similar cooperators use precipitation and snowpack measurements to provide water resource managers with an estimate of seasonal runoff volume. The accuracy of these forecasts can be limited by available snowpack and meteorological data. In the headwaters of the Rio Grande, NRCS produces January through June monthly Water Supply Outlook Reports. This study evaluates the accuracy of these forecasts since 1990, and examines what factors may contribute to forecast error. The Rio Grande headwaters has experienced recent changes in land cover from bark beetle infestation and a large wildfire, which can affect hydrological processes within the watershed. To investigate trends and possible contributing factors in forecast error, a semi-distributed hydrological model was calibrated and run to simulate daily streamflow for the period 1990-2015. Annual and seasonal watershed and sub-watershed water balance properties were compared with seasonal water supply forecasts. Gridded meteorological datasets were used to assess changes in the timing and volume of spring precipitation events that may contribute to forecast error. Additionally, a

  20. International survey for good practices in forecasting uncertainty assessment and communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berthet, Lionel; Piotte, Olivier

    2014-05-01

    Achieving technically sound flood forecasts is a crucial objective for forecasters but remains of poor use if the users do not understand properly their significance and do not use it properly in decision making. One usual way to precise the forecasts limitations is to communicate some information about their uncertainty. Uncertainty assessment and communication to stakeholders are thus important issues for operational flood forecasting services (FFS) but remain open fields for research. French FFS wants to publish graphical streamflow and level forecasts along with uncertainty assessment in near future on its website (available to the greater public). In order to choose the technical options best adapted to its operational context, it carried out a survey among more than 15 fellow institutions. Most of these are providing forecasts and warnings to civil protection officers while some were mostly working for hydroelectricity suppliers. A questionnaire has been prepared in order to standardize the analysis of the practices of the surveyed institutions. The survey was conducted by gathering information from technical reports or from the scientific literature, as well as 'interviews' driven by phone, email discussions or meetings. The questionnaire helped in the exploration of practices in uncertainty assessment, evaluation and communication. Attention was paid to the particular context within which every insitution works, in the analysis drawn from raw results. Results show that most services interviewed assess their forecasts uncertainty. However, practices can differ significantly from a country to another. Popular techniques are ensemble approaches. They allow to take into account several uncertainty sources. Statistical past forecasts analysis (such as the quantile regressions) are also commonly used. Contrary to what was expected, only few services emphasize the role of the forecaster (subjective assessment). Similar contrasts can be observed in uncertainty

  1. Latin America wind market assessment. Forecast 2013-2022

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-10-15

    Wind Power Activities by Country: Developers/Owners, Wind Plant Sizes, Wind Turbines Deployed, Commissioning Dates, Market Share, and Capacity Forecasts Latin American markets are a subject of intense interest from the global wind industry. Wind plant construction across Latin America is modest compared to the more established markets like the United States, Europe, and China, but it is an emerging market that is taking off at a rapid pace. The region has become the hottest alternative growth market for the wind energy industry at a time when growth rates in other markets are flat due to a variety of policy and macroeconomic challenges. Globalization is driving sustainable economic growth in most Latin American countries, resulting in greater energy demand. Wind is increasingly viewed as a valuable and essential answer to increasing electricity generation across most markets in Latin America. Strong wind resources, coupled with today's sophisticated wind turbines, are providing cost-effective generation that is competitive with fossil fuel generation. Most Latin American countries also rely heavily on hydroelectricity, which balances well with variable wind generation. Navigant Research forecasts that if most wind plants under construction with planned commissioning go online as scheduled, annual wind power installations in Latin America will grow from nearly 2.2 GW in 2013 to 4.3 GW by 2022. This Navigant Research report provides a comprehensive view of the wind energy market dynamics at play in Latin America. It offers a country-by-country analysis, outlining the key energy policies and development opportunities and barriers and identifying which companies own operational wind plants and which wind turbine vendors supplied those projects. Market forecasts for wind power installations, capacity, and market share in Latin America, segmented by country and company, extend through 2022. The report also offers an especially close analysis of Brazil and Mexico

  2. Health technology assessment in Finland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mäkelä, Marjukka; Roine, Risto P

    2010-01-01

    , with special responsibility in providing assessments to underpin national policies in screening. External evaluations enhanced the rapid growth. In the Finnish environment, decision making on health technologies is extremely decentralized, so Finohta has developed some practical tools for implementing HTA......Since the 1990s, health policy makers in Finland have been supportive of evidence-based medicine and approaches to implement its results. The Finnish Office for Health Technology Assessment (Finohta) has grown from a small start in 1995 to a medium-sized health technology assessment (HTA) agency...... findings. The Managed Uptake of Medical Methods program links the hospital districts to agree on introduction of technologies. The Ohtanen database provides Finnish-language summaries of major assessments made in other countries....

  3. Health technology assessment in Finland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mäkelä, Marjukka; Roine, Risto P

    2010-01-01

    Since the 1990s, health policy makers in Finland have been supportive of evidence-based medicine and approaches to implement its results. The Finnish Office for Health Technology Assessment (Finohta) has grown from a small start in 1995 to a medium-sized health technology assessment (HTA) agency......, with special responsibility in providing assessments to underpin national policies in screening. External evaluations enhanced the rapid growth. In the Finnish environment, decision making on health technologies is extremely decentralized, so Finohta has developed some practical tools for implementing HTA...... findings. The Managed Uptake of Medical Methods program links the hospital districts to agree on introduction of technologies. The Ohtanen database provides Finnish-language summaries of major assessments made in other countries....

  4. Biological Environmental Sampling Technologies Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-12-01

    assay performance for the detection of target pathogens or protein biomarkers in liquid matrices. The nanomanipulation technology provides a dramatic...personal protective equipment qPCR quantitative polymerase chain reaction RAID Rapid Assessment Initial Detection kit RFI request for information RT...Carrie Poore Robert Dorsey RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGY DIRECTORATE Aaron Chonko David Grieco JOINT BIOLOGICAL TACTICAL DETECTION SYSTEM

  5. Economic assessment of flood forecasts for a risk-averse decision-maker

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matte, Simon; Boucher, Marie-Amélie; Boucher, Vincent; Fortier-Filion, Thomas-Charles

    2017-04-01

    A large effort has been made over the past 10 years to promote the operational use of probabilistic or ensemble streamflow forecasts. It has also been suggested in past studies that ensemble forecasts might possess a greater economic value than deterministic forecasts. However, the vast majority of recent hydro-economic literature is based on the cost-loss ratio framework, which might be appealing for its simplicity and intuitiveness. One important drawback of the cost-loss ratio is that it implicitly assumes a risk-neutral decision maker. By definition, a risk-neutral individual is indifferent to forecasts' sharpness: as long as forecasts agree with observations on average, the risk-neutral individual is satisfied. A risk-averse individual, however, is sensitive to the level of precision (sharpness) of forecasts. This person is willing to pay to increase his or her certainty about future events. In fact, this is how insurance companies operate: the probability of seeing one's house burn down is relatively low, so the expected cost related to such event is also low. However, people are willing to buy insurance to avoid the risk, however small, of loosing everything. Similarly, in a context where people's safety and property is at stake, the typical decision maker is more risk-averse than risk-neutral. Consequently, the cost-loss ratio is not the most appropriate tool to assess the economic value of flood forecasts. This presentation describes a more realistic framework for assessing the economic value of such forecasts for flood mitigation purposes. Borrowing from economics, the Constant Absolute Risk Aversion utility function (CARA) is the central tool of this new framework. Utility functions allow explicitly accounting for the level of risk aversion of the decision maker and fully exploiting the information related to ensemble forecasts' uncertainty. Three concurrent ensemble streamflow forecasting systems are compared in terms of quality (comparison with

  6. The european flood alert system EFAS – Part 2: Statistical skill assessment of probabilistic and deterministic operational forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. Bartholmes

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Since 2005 the European Flood Alert System (EFAS has been producing probabilistic hydrological forecasts in pre-operational mode at the Joint Research Centre (JRC of the European Commission. EFAS aims at increasing preparedness for floods in trans-national European river basins by providing medium-range deterministic and probabilistic flood forecasting information, from 3 to 10 days in advance, to national hydro-meteorological services.

    This paper is Part 2 of a study presenting the development and skill assessment of EFAS. In Part 1, the scientific approach adopted in the development of the system has been presented, as well as its basic principles and forecast products. In the present article, two years of existing operational EFAS forecasts are statistically assessed and the skill of EFAS forecasts is analysed with several skill scores. The analysis is based on the comparison of threshold exceedances between proxy-observed and forecasted discharges. Skill is assessed both with and without taking into account the persistence of the forecasted signal during consecutive forecasts.

    Skill assessment approaches are mostly adopted from meteorology and the analysis also compares probabilistic and deterministic aspects of EFAS. Furthermore, the utility of different skill scores is discussed and their strengths and shortcomings illustrated. The analysis shows the benefit of incorporating past forecasts in the probability analysis, for medium-range forecasts, which effectively increases the skill of the forecasts.

  7. Load forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mak, H.

    1995-01-01

    Slides used in a presentation at The Power of Change Conference in Vancouver, BC in April 1995 about the changing needs for load forecasting were presented. Technological innovations and population increase were said to be the prime driving forces behind the changing needs in load forecasting. Structural changes, market place changes, electricity supply planning changes, and changes in planning objectives were other factors discussed. It was concluded that load forecasting was a form of information gathering, that provided important market intelligence

  8. Probabilistic Latent Semantic Analyses (PLSA in Bibliometric Analysis for Technology Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Zan

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Due to the availability of internet-based abstract services and patent databases, bibliometric analysis has become one of key technology forecasting approaches. Recently, latent semantic analysis (LSA has been applied to improve the accuracy in document clustering. In this paper, a new LSA method, probabilistic latent semantic analysis (PLSA which uses probabilistic methods and algebra to search latent space in the corpus is further applied in document clustering. The results show that PLSA is more accurate than LSA and the improved iteration method proposed by authors can simplify the computing process and improve the computing efficiency

  9. Technology Alignment and Portfolio Prioritization (TAPP): Advanced Methods in Strategic Analysis, Technology Forecasting and Long Term Planning for Human Exploration and Operations, Advanced Exploration Systems and Advanced Concepts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funaro, Gregory V.; Alexander, Reginald A.

    2015-01-01

    Prioritization by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), and other multi­-criteria decision-making methods. These methods can be labor-intensive, often contain cognitive or parochial bias, and do not consider the competing prioritization between mission architectures. Strategic Decision-Making (SDM) processes cannot be properly understood unless the context of the technology is understood. This makes assessing technological change particularly challenging due to the relationships "between incumbent technology and the incumbent (innovation) system in relation to the emerging technology and the emerging innovation system." The central idea in technology dynamics is to consider all activities that contribute to the development, diffusion, and use of innovations as system functions. Bergek defines system functions within a TIS to address what is actually happening and has a direct influence on the ultimate performance of the system and technology development. ACO uses similar metrics and is expanding these metrics to account for the structure and context of the technology. At NASA technology and strategy is strongly interrelated. NASA's Strategic Space Technology Investment Plan (SSTIP) prioritizes those technologies essential to the pursuit of NASA's missions and national interests. The SSTIP is strongly coupled with NASA's Technology Roadmaps to provide investment guidance during the next four years, within a twenty-year horizon. This paper discusses the methods ACO is currently developing to better perform technology assessments while taking into consideration Strategic Alignment, Technology Forecasting, and Long Term Planning.

  10. New technology for using meteorological information in forest insect pest forecast and warning systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, Jiang-Lin; Yang, Xiu-Hao; Yang, Zhong-Wu; Luo, Ji-Tong; Lei, Xiu-Feng

    2017-12-01

    Near surface air temperature and rainfall are major weather factors affecting forest insect dynamics. The recent developments in remote sensing retrieval and geographic information system spatial analysis techniques enable the utilization of weather factors to significantly enhance forest pest forecasting and warning systems. The current study focused on building forest pest digital data structures as a platform of correlation analysis between weather conditions and forest pest dynamics for better pest forecasting and warning systems using the new technologies. The study dataset contained 3 353 425 small polygons with 174 defined attributes covering 95 counties of Guangxi province of China currently registering 292 forest pest species. Field data acquisition and information transfer systems were established with four software licences that provided 15-fold improvement compared to the systems currently used in China. Nine technical specifications were established including codes of forest districts, pest species and host tree species, and standard practices of forest pest monitoring and information management. Attributes can easily be searched using ArcGIS9.3 and/or the free QGIS2.16 software. Small polygons with pest relevant attributes are a new tool of precision farming and detailed forest insect pest management that are technologically advanced. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

  11. Assessing the Quality of Natural Gas Consumption Forecasting: An Application to the Italian Residential Sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Federico Scarpa

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available (1 Background: The present paper aims at estimating the quality of the forecasts obtained by using one equation models. In particular, the focus is on the effect that the explanatory variables have on the forecasted quantity. The analysis is performed on the long term natural gas consumption in the Italian residential sector, but the same methodology can be applied to other contexts; (2 Methods: Different ex ante knowledge scenarios are built by associating different levels of confidence to the same set of explanatory variables. Forecasting results, coming from a standard regression algorithm and confirmed by a Kalman filter, are analyzed by means of covariance matrix propagation to assess the quality of the provided estimates; (3 Results: The outcomes show that one-equation models are very sensitive to the quality of the explanatory variables, therefore their erroneous estimation may have a relevant detrimental effect on the predictive accuracy of the model; (4 Conclusions: The overall ex ante forecasting accuracy of an example of one equation model is assessed. It has emerged that long-term forecasts need particular attention when the covered time horizon spans over decades. The information contained in the present paper is of interest for energy planners, supply network managers and policy makers in order to support their decisions.

  12. Integral assessment of floodplains as a basis for spatially-explicit flood loss forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zischg, Andreas Paul; Mosimann, Markus; Weingartner, Rolf

    2016-04-01

    flood scenario, the resulting number of affected residents, houses and therefore the losses are computed. This integral assessment leads to a hydro-economical characterisation of each floodplain. Based on that, a transfer function between discharge forecast and damages can be elaborated. This transfer function describes the relationship between predicted peak discharge, flood volume and the number of exposed houses, residents and the related losses. It also can be used to downscale the regional discharge forecast to a local level loss forecast. In addition, a dynamic map delimiting the probable flooded areas on the basis of the forecasted discharge can be prepared. The predicted losses and the delimited flooded areas provide a complementary information for assessing the need of preventive measures on one hand on the long-term timescale and on the other hand 6h-24h in advance of a predicted flood. To conclude, we can state that the transfer function offers the possibility for an integral assessment of floodplains as a basis for spatially-explicit flood loss forecasts. The procedure has been developed and tested in the alpine and pre-alpine environment of the Aare river catchment upstream of Bern, Switzerland.

  13. Assessment of Storm Surge Forecasting Methods Used During Typhoon Haiyan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahar Francisco Lagmay, Alfredo; Malano, Vicente

    2014-05-01

    On 8 November 2013, Super Typhoon Haiyan made landfall in the central part of the Philippines. Considered one of the most powerful typhoons ever to make landfall in recorded history with 315 kph one-minute maximum sustained winds according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), Haiyan brought widespread devastation in its path. Strong winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surges caused massive loss of lives and extensive damage to property. Storm surges were primarily responsible for the 6,201 dead, 1,785 missing and 28,626 injured in Haiyan's aftermath. This study documents the Haiyan storm surge simulations which were used as basis for the warnings provided to the public. The storm tide -- storm surge added to astronomical tide levels -- forecasts were made using the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) Storm Surge Model and WXTide software. Storm surge maps for the entire Philippines and time series plots for observation points in areas along the path of the typhoon were produced. Storm tide heights between one and five meters were also predicted for 68 coastal areas two days prior to Haiyan's landfall. A storm surge inundation map showing the extent of coastal flooding for Tacloban City, Leyte, one of the most severely affected areas by the typhoon, was generated using FLO-2D software. This was validated using field data such as high water marks, eyewitness accounts from locals, and information from media coverage. This map can be used as reference to determine danger zones and safe evacuation sites during similar events. Typhoon Haiyan generated one of the biggest and most devastating storm surge events in several decades, exacting a high death toll despite its early prediction. Lessons learned from this calamity and information contained in this work may serve as useful reference to mitigate the heavy impact of future storm surge events in the Philippines and elsewhere.

  14. Proceedings Technology Enhanced Assessment conference

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Joosten-ten Brinke, Desirée; Laanpere, Mart

    2018-01-01

    This book constitutes the proceedings of the 19th International Conference on Technology Enhanced Assessment, TEA 2016, held in Tallinn, Estonia, in October 2016. The 16 full papers presented were carefully selected from 38 submissions. They are centered around topics like measurement of higher

  15. Knowledge in health technology assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tjørnhøj-Thomsen, Tine; Hansen, Helle Ploug

    2011-01-01

    Health systems are placing more and more emphasis on designing and delivering services that are focused on the patient, and there is a growing interest in patient aspects of health policy research and health technology assessment (HTA). Only a few HTA agencies use and invest in scientific methods...

  16. Health technology assessment in Greece.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liaropoulos, L; Kaitelidou, D

    2000-01-01

    In 1983 a health reform aimed to assure universal coverage and equity in the distribution of services in Greece. The reform implied state responsibility for the financing and delivery of services and a reduction of the private sector. The model was a Bismarckian scheme for social insurance. However, healthcare delivery remains fragmented and uncoordinated and the private sector is getting stronger. The dominant payment system is fee-for-service for the private sector and administered prices and salaries for public hospitals and social insurance funds. The many insurers have their own eligibility requirements, validation procedures, etc. Coverage of services by social security funds, probably among the most comprehensive in Europe, is determined more on historical and political grounds than on efficiency or cost-effectiveness. The system is plagued by problems, including geographical inequalities, overcentralization, bureaucratic management, poor incentives in the public sector, open-ended financing, inefficient use of hospital beds, and lack of cost-effectiveness. There are no specific legal provisions for the control of health technology. Technologies are introduced without standards or formal consideration of needs. There are no current efforts to control health technology in Greece. However, health technology assessment (HTA) has gained increasing visibility. In 1997 a law provided for a new government agency responsible for quality control, economic evaluation of health services, and HTA. The hope is that the new law may introduce evaluation and assessment elements into health policy formulation and assure that cost effectiveness, quality, and appropriate use of health technology will receive more attention.

  17. Technology data characterizing refrigeration in commercial buildings: Application to end-use forecasting with COMMEND 4.0

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sezgen, O.; Koomey, J.G.

    1995-12-01

    In the United States, energy consumption is increasing most rapidly in the commercial sector. Consequently, the commercial sector is becoming an increasingly important target for state and federal energy policies and also for utility-sponsored demand side management (DSM) programs. The rapid growth in commercial-sector energy consumption also makes it important for analysts working on energy policy and DSM issues to have access to energy end-use forecasting models that include more detailed representations of energy-using technologies in the commercial sector. These new forecasting models disaggregate energy consumption not only by fuel type, end use, and building type, but also by specific technology. The disaggregation of the refrigeration end use in terms of specific technologies, however, is complicated by several factors. First, the number of configurations of refrigeration cases and systems is quite large. Also, energy use is a complex function of the refrigeration-case properties and the refrigeration-system properties. The Electric Power Research Institute`s (EPRI`s) Commercial End-Use Planning System (COMMEND 4.0) and the associated data development presented in this report attempt to address the above complications and create a consistent forecasting framework. Expanding end-use forecasting models so that they address individual technology options requires characterization of the present floorstock in terms of service requirements, energy technologies used, and cost-efficiency attributes of the energy technologies that consumers may choose for new buildings and retrofits. This report describes the process by which we collected refrigeration technology data. The data were generated for COMMEND 4.0 but are also generally applicable to other end-use forecasting frameworks for the commercial sector.

  18. Augmented Reality Tower Technology Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reisman, Ronald J.; Brown, David M.

    2009-01-01

    Augmented Reality technology may help improve Air Traffic Control Tower efficiency and safety during low-visibility conditions. This paper presents the assessments of five off-duty controllers who shadow-controlled' with an augmented reality prototype in their own facility. Initial studies indicated unanimous agreement that this technology is potentially beneficial, though the prototype used in the study was not adequate for operational use. Some controllers agreed that augmented reality technology improved situational awareness, had potential to benefit clearance, control, and coordination tasks and duties and could be very useful for acquiring aircraft and weather information, particularly aircraft location, heading, and identification. The strongest objections to the prototype used in this study were directed at aircraft registration errors, unacceptable optical transparency, insufficient display performance in sunlight, inadequate representation of the static environment and insufficient symbology.

  19. ASSESSMENT OF GALLIUM OXIDE TECHNOLOGY

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-08-01

    heterojunction to implement p-n junctions. This would bring a large number of new device types into play, especially for power electronics where Ga2O3 is...AFRL-RY-WP-TR-2017-0167 ASSESSMENT OF GALLIUM OXIDE TECHNOLOGY Burhan Bayraktaroglu Devices for Sensing Branch Aerospace... Devices for Sensing Branch Aerospace Component & Subsystems Division *//Signature// ROSS W. DETTMER Chief Devices for Sensing Branch

  20. Socioeconomic Impact Assessment: Communications Industry. Phase III. Technology Forecast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1979-02-02

    DINGLE DISC 150 w CARTMI!GES ip b. LOW W- U: . Ob TAP6- S-*0TE *~ATA CAATRIOG C)7 10 20 3 0 5 0 70 s0 90 100 CAPACITY IN MEGABYTES * Figure 3.5 3-56...be assigned by the President. The m Interdepartmental Radio Advisor Committee (IRAC) was organized by Herbert Hoover in 1922, who was then the

  1. National Coal Utilization Assessment: a preliminary assessment of coal utilizaton in the South. [Southern USA to 2020; forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berry, L. B.; Bjornstad, D. J.; Boercker, F. D.

    1978-01-01

    Some of the major problems and issues related to coal development and use in the South are identified and assessed assuming a base-case energy scenario for the next 45 years. This scenario assumes a midrange of coal use and a relatively high rate of nuclear use over the forecast period. The potential impacts from coal development and use are significant, particularly in the 1990-2020 time period. Practically all available sites suitable for power plant development in the assessment will be utilized by 2020. Overall, sulfur dioxide will be well below the annual primary standard; however, several local hot-spot areas were identified. In addition, sulfate concentrations will be increased significantly, particularly over Virginia, West Virginia, and northern Kentucky. Coal mining is expected to affect 6 of the 12 major ecological regions. Coal mining will lead to increased average suspended sediment concentrations in some river basins, and special measures will be required to control acid discharges from active mines in pyritic regions. The increased mining of coal and subsequent sulfur dioxide increases from its combustion may also give rise to a land-use confrontation with food and fiber production. Potential health effects from exposure to sulfur dioxide and sulfates are expected to increase rapidly in several areas, particularly in parts of Kentucky, Maryland, District of Columbia, and Georgia. Regional social costs should be relatively low, although some site-specific costs are expected to be very high. Alternative energy technologies, careful siting selection, and deployment of environmental control technologies and operating policies will be required to reduce or mitigate these potential impacts.

  2. Assessing existing drought monitoring and forecasting capacities, mitigation and adaptation practices in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyabeze, W. R.; Dlamini, L.; Lahlou, O.; Imani, Y.; Alaoui, S. B.; Vermooten, J. S. A.

    2012-04-01

    Drought is one of the major natural hazards in many parts of the world, including Africa and some regions in Europe. Drought events have resulted in extensive damages to livelihoods, environment and economy. In 2011, a consortium consisting of 19 organisations from both Africa and Europe started a project (DEWFORA) aimed at developing a framework for the provision of early warning and response through drought impact mitigation for Africa. This framework covers the whole chain from monitoring and vulnerability assessment to forecasting, warning, response and knowledge dissemination. This paper presents the first results of the capacity assessment of drought monitoring and forecasting systems in Africa, the existing institutional frameworks and drought mitigation and adaptation practices. Its focus is particularly on the historical drought mitigation and adaptation actions identified in the North Africa - Maghreb Region (Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia) and in the Southern Africa - Limpopo Basin. This is based on an extensive review of historical drought experiences. From the 1920's to 2009, the study identified 37 drought seasons in the North African - Maghreb Region and 33 drought seasons in the Southern Africa - Limpopo Basin. Existing literature tends to capture the spatial extent of drought at national and administrative scale in great detail. This is driven by the need to map drought impacts (food shortage, communities affected) in order to inform drought relief efforts (short-term drought mitigation measures). However, the mapping of drought at catchment scale (hydrological unit), required for longer-term measures, is not well documented. At regional level, both in North Africa and Southern Africa, two organisations are involved in drought monitoring and forecasting, while at national level 22 organisations are involved in North Africa and 37 in Southern Africa. Regarding drought related mitigation actions, the inventory shows that the most common actions

  3. Combining Reference Class Forecasting with Overconfidence Theory for Better Risk Assessment of Transport Infrastructure Investments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leleur, Steen; Salling, Kim Bang; Pilkauskiene, Inga

    2015-01-01

    -benefit analysis results that are modified by taking historical risk experience into account. This article seeks to add to this progress in risk assessment methodology in two ways: first it suggests to apply reference class forecasting (RCF) in a flexible way where the effort is focused on formulating the best......Assessing the risks of infrastructure investments has become a topic of growing importance. This is due to a sad record of implemented projects with cost overruns and demand shortfalls leading, in retrospect, to the finding that there is a need for better risk assessment of transport infrastructure...... investments. In the last decade progress has been made by dealing with this situation known as planners’ optimism bias. Especially attention can be drawn to the use of reference class forecasting that has led to adjustment factors that, when used on the estimates of costs and demand, lead to cost...

  4. Flood Risk Assessment and Forecasting for the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna River Basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopson, T. M.; Priya, S.; Young, W.; Avasthi, A.; Clayton, T. D.; Brakenridge, G. R.; Birkett, C. M.; Riddle, E. E.; Broman, D.; Boehnert, J.; Sampson, K. M.; Kettner, A.; Singh, D.

    2017-12-01

    During the 2017 South Asia monsoon, torrential rains and catastrophic floods affected more than 45 million people, including 16 million children, across the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) basins. The basin is recognized as one of the world's most disaster-prone regions, with severe floods occurring almost annually causing extreme loss of life and property. In light of this vulnerability, the World Bank and collaborators have contributed toward reducing future flood impacts through recent developments to improve operational preparedness for such events, as well as efforts in more general preparedness and resilience building through planning based on detailed risk assessments. With respect to improved event-specific flood preparedness through operational warnings, we discuss a new forecasting system that provides probability-based flood forecasts developed for more than 85 GBM locations. Forecasts are available online, along with near-real-time data maps of rainfall (predicted and actual) and river levels. The new system uses multiple data sets and multiple models to enhance forecasting skill, and provides improved forecasts up to 16 days in advance of the arrival of high waters. These longer lead times provide the opportunity to save both lives and livelihoods. With sufficient advance notice, for example, farmers can harvest a threatened rice crop or move vulnerable livestock to higher ground. Importantly, the forecasts not only predict future water levels but indicate the level of confidence in each forecast. Knowing whether the probability of a danger-level flood is 10 percent or 90 percent helps people to decide what, if any, action to take. With respect to efforts in general preparedness and resilience building, we also present a recent flood risk assessment, and how it provides, for the first time, a numbers-based view of the impacts of different size floods across the Ganges basin. The findings help identify priority areas for tackling flood risks (for

  5. Communicating Climate Change - Weather Forecast Need Assessment and Information Dissemination Mechanism to Farmers in Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panthi, J., Sr.

    2014-12-01

    Climate Change is becoming one of the major threats to the fragile Himalayan ecosystem. It is affecting all sectors mainly fresh water, agriculture, forest, biodiversity and species. The subsistence agriculture system of Nepal is mainly rain-fed; therefore, climate change and climate extremes do have direct impacts on it. Weather extremes like droughts, floods and landslides long-lasting fog, hot and cold waves are affecting the agriculture sectors of Nepal. As human-induced climate change has already showing its impacts and it is going to be there for a long time to come, it is paramount importance to move towards the adaptation. Early warning system is an effective way for reducing the impacts of disasters. Forecasting of weather parameters (temperature, precipitation, and wind) helps farmers for their preparedness activities. With consultation with farmers and other relevant institutions, a research project was carried out, for the first time in Nepal, to identify the forecast information need to farmers and their dissemination mechanism. Community consultation workshops, key informant survey, and field observations were the techniques used for this research. Two ecological locations: Bageshwori VDC in Banke (plain) and Dhaibung VDC in Rasuwa (mountain) were taken as the pilot sites for this assessment. People in both the districts are dependent highly on agriculture and the weather extremes like hailstone, untimely rainfall; droughts are affecting their agriculture practices. They do not have confidence in the weather forecast information disseminated by the government of Nepal currently being done because it is a general forecast not done for a smaller domain and the forecast is valid only for 24 hours. The weather forecast need to the farmers in both the sites are: rainfall (intensity, duration and time), drought, and hailstone but in Banke, people wished to have the information of heat and cold waves too as they are affecting their wheat and tomato crops

  6. Technological forecasting applied to the processes of hydrogen generation; Previsao tecnologica sobre os processos de geracao de hidrogenio

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nakano, Milton Satocy; Oliveira, Wagner dos Santos [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)], e-mails: msnakano@usp.br; wagner@ipen.br

    2008-11-15

    Fuel cells are attracting interest as efficient and clean energy conversion devices. Hydrogen is the combustible of the fuel cells and must be generated by an efficient and clean method. This work exploits Delphi methodology of technological forecasting applied to hydrogen generation and identifies the most probable methods that, in future, can be used to obtain hydrogen in Brazil. (author)

  7. Incorporating Ensemble-based Probabilistic Forecasts into a Campaign Simulation in the Weather Impact Assessment Tool (WIAT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-01

    STW Strike Warfare UAV Unmanned Aerial Vehicle VBA Visual Basic for Applications WIAT Weather Impact Assessment Tool WIAT* Weather Impact...increased budget and research resources will be devoted to the continued development of probabilistic forecasting techniques and products. Deterministic...managing resources . The ability of the forecaster to accurately predict the most likely evolution of weather parameters and to communicate a qualitative

  8. Health technology assessment in Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez-Dantés, Octavio; Frenk, Julio

    2009-07-01

    The history of health technology assessment (HTA) in Mexico is examined, starting with the efforts to incorporate this topic into the policy agenda and culminating with the recent creation of a specialized public agency. Information was gathered through a bibliographic search and interviews with actors involved in HTA in Mexico. HTA efforts were developed in Mexico since the mid-1980s with the participation both of academics and of policy makers, a relationship that eventually led to the creation of the Center for Technological Excellence within the Ministry of Health. Institutionalization of HTA in resource-constrained settings requires the development of a critical mass of researchers involved in this field, the implementation of information efforts, and the establishment of strong relationships between HTA experts and policy makers.

  9. SCORING ASSESSMENT AND FORECASTING MODELS BANKRUPTCY RISK OF COMPANIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SUSU Stefanita

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Bankruptcy risk made the subject of many research studies that aim at identifying the time of the bankruptcy, the factors that compete to achieve this state, the indicators that best express this orientation (the bankruptcy. The threats to enterprises require the managers knowledge of continually economic and financial situations, and vulnerable areas with development potential. Managers need to identify and properly manage the threats that would prevent achieving the targets. In terms of methods known in the literature of assessment and evaluation of bankruptcy risk they are static, functional, strategic, and scoring nonfinancial models. This article addresses Altman and Conan-Holder-known internationally as the model developed at national level by two teachers from prestigious universities in our country-the Robu-Mironiuc model. Those models are applied to data released by the profit and loss account and balance sheet Turism Covasna company over which bankruptcy risk analysis is performed. The results of the analysis are interpreted while trying to formulate solutions to the economic and financial viability of the entity.

  10. Evaluating hydrological response to forecasted land-use change—scenario testing with the automated geospatial watershed assessment (AGWA) tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kepner, William G.; Semmens, Darius J.; Hernandez, Mariano; Goodrich, David C.

    2009-01-01

    Envisioning and evaluating future scenarios has emerged as a critical component of both science and social decision-making. The ability to assess, report, map, and forecast the life support functions of ecosystems is absolutely critical to our capacity to make informed decisions to maintain the sustainable nature of our ecosystem services now and into the future. During the past two decades, important advances in the integration of remote imagery, computer processing, and spatial-analysis technologies have been used to develop landscape information that can be integrated with hydrologic models to determine long-term change and make predictive inferences about the future. Two diverse case studies in northwest Oregon (Willamette River basin) and southeastern Arizona (San Pedro River) were examined in regard to future land use scenarios relative to their impact on surface water conditions (e.g., sediment yield and surface runoff) using hydrologic models associated with the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool. The base reference grid for land cover was modified in both study locations to reflect stakeholder preferences 20 to 60 yrs into the future, and the consequences of landscape change were evaluated relative to the selected future scenarios. The two studies provide examples of integrating hydrologic modeling with a scenario analysis framework to evaluate plausible future forecasts and to understand the potential impact of landscape change on ecosystem services.

  11. Statistical Models to Assess the Health Effects and to Forecast Ground Level Ozone

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Schlink, U.; Herbath, O.; Richter, M.; Dorling, S.; Nunnari, G.; Cawley, G.; Pelikán, Emil

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 21, č. 4 (2006), s. 547-558 ISSN 1364-8152 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR 1ET400300414 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : statistical models * ground level ozone * health effects * logistic model * forecasting * prediction performance * neural network * generalised additive model * integrated assessment Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 1.992, year: 2006

  12. Wireless technology for ABC Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Margit; Kyng, Morten; Christensen, Erika Frischknecht

    be just beside a victim to assess the ABC status. Consequently - in situations with many victims - monitoring equipment is only used for the (few) most seriously injured. Our ongoing research builds on data collected through extensive field studies and is described in several published papers. We......  In medical emergency service (EMS) the ABC status (Airway-Breathing-Circulation) of victims is essential in the decision making process regarding prioritizing and treatment. Today's use of information technology does, however, not inform directly about "A" and "B". The parameters are evaluated...... indirectly through assessment of collected biosensor data, such as ECG, and directly by the rescuer regarding how the patient looks and sounds. Moreover, the monitoring equipment used today is connected with displays by wires and thus only utilizes one display at a time. This means that the rescuers must...

  13. Technology modernization assessment flexible automation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bennett, D.W.; Boyd, D.R.; Hansen, N.H.; Hansen, M.A.; Yount, J.A.

    1990-12-01

    The objectives of this report are: to present technology assessment guidelines to be considered in conjunction with defense regulations before an automation project is developed to give examples showing how assessment guidelines may be applied to a current project to present several potential areas where automation might be applied successfully in the depot system. Depots perform primarily repair and remanufacturing operations, with limited small batch manufacturing runs. While certain activities (such as Management Information Systems and warehousing) are directly applicable to either environment, the majority of applications will require combining existing and emerging technologies in different ways, with the special needs of depot remanufacturing environment. Industry generally enjoys the ability to make revisions to its product lines seasonally, followed by batch runs of thousands or more. Depot batch runs are in the tens, at best the hundreds, of parts with a potential for large variation in product mix; reconfiguration may be required on a week-to-week basis. This need for a higher degree of flexibility suggests a higher level of operator interaction, and, in turn, control systems that go beyond the state of the art for less flexible automation and industry in general. This report investigates the benefits and barriers to automation and concludes that, while significant benefits do exist for automation, depots must be prepared to carefully investigate the technical feasibility of each opportunity and the life-cycle costs associated with implementation. Implementation is suggested in two ways: (1) develop an implementation plan for automation technologies based on results of small demonstration automation projects; (2) use phased implementation for both these and later stage automation projects to allow major technical and administrative risk issues to be addressed. 10 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs. (JF)

  14. HVDC power transmission technology assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hauth, R.L.; Tatro, P.J.; Railing, B.D. [New England Power Service Co., Westborough, MA (United States); Johnson, B.K.; Stewart, J.R. [Power Technologies, Inc., Schenectady, NY (United States); Fink, J.L.

    1997-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop an assessment of the national utility system`s needs for electric transmission during the period 1995-2020 that could be met by future reduced-cost HVDC systems. The assessment was to include an economic evaluation of HVDC as a means for meeting those needs as well as a comparison with competing technologies such as ac transmission with and without Flexible AC Transmission System (FACTS) controllers. The role of force commutated dc converters was to be assumed where appropriate. The assessment begins by identifying the general needs for transmission in the U.S. in the context of a future deregulated power industry. The possible roles for direct current transmission are then postulated in terms of representative scenarios. A few of the scenarios are illustrated with the help of actual U.S. system examples. non-traditional applications as well as traditional applications such as long lines and asynchronous interconnections are discussed. The classical ``break-even distance`` concept for comparing HVDC and ac lines is used to assess the selected scenarios. The impact of reduced-cost converters is reflected in terms of the break-even distance. This report presents a comprehensive review of the functional benefits of HVDC transmission and updated cost data for both ac and dc system components. It also provides some provocative thoughts on how direct current transmission might be applied to better utilize and expand our nation`s increasingly stressed transmission assets.

  15. National forecast for geothermal resource exploration and development with techniques for policy analysis and resource assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cassel, T.A.V.; Shimamoto, G.T.; Amundsen, C.B.; Blair, P.D.; Finan, W.F.; Smith, M.R.; Edeistein, R.H.

    1982-03-31

    The backgrund, structure and use of modern forecasting methods for estimating the future development of geothermal energy in the United States are documented. The forecasting instrument may be divided into two sequential submodels. The first predicts the timing and quality of future geothermal resource discoveries from an underlying resource base. This resource base represents an expansion of the widely-publicized USGS Circular 790. The second submodel forecasts the rate and extent of utilization of geothermal resource discoveries. It is based on the joint investment behavior of resource developers and potential users as statistically determined from extensive industry interviews. It is concluded that geothermal resource development, especially for electric power development, will play an increasingly significant role in meeting US energy demands over the next 2 decades. Depending on the extent of R and D achievements in related areas of geosciences and technology, expected geothermal power development will reach between 7700 and 17300 Mwe by the year 2000. This represents between 8 and 18% of the expected electric energy demand (GWh) in western and northwestern states.

  16. Technology assessment using NBIC convergence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vaseashta, Ashok

    2009-01-01

    Technologies' has considerably influenced scientific and social thinking about the future, there are several active debates in progress. The first being about the future of technologies and their relations to humans as nanoscale materials and systems provide the means to probe cells and provide basis for human performance augmentation - hence contributing to the formation of political and public opinion on societal aspects of science and technology. Such debates have lead to socio-political and ethical issues that transcend academic disciplinary borders that are rooted outside of the scientific arena. Thus it necessitates, inter- and often trans-disciplinary research to contribute effectively to these formative process. Such concerns are independently addressed using studies relating to toxicology, fate, transport, and bioavailability of nanomaterials, as well as human exposures to these materials. On another front, the debate is on the future of the scientific disciplines and visions about technological developments. Such predictions often relate to human way of life, environmental and international security, and are used by scientists, engineers, managers, policymakers, media, philosophers and authors - all with different interpretations. We present balanced, yet strategic assessments and recommendations of revolutionary scientific breakthroughs in multidisciplinary environments based on the NBIC convergence approach. Technology roadmaps are cautiously formulated based on extensive research, expert elicitation, and networking approaches to project 'future scenarios' realistically and epistemologically. Such roadmaps enable development of transformative tools and methodologies that fill fundamental knowledge gaps, and change culture in academia to foster collaboration, thus providing unique solutions. It is expected that the synergy arising from converging technologies and research methodologies at the IASC will leverage emerging and potentially transformative studies. The

  17. Assessment of epidemiological parameters and their use in epidemiological and forecasting models of cereal airborne diseases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vallavieille-Pope, C. de; Giosue, S.; Munk, L.

    2000-01-01

    and of nutrient status of the host on cereal powdery mildew and rust epidemiological parameters are presented, The use of the ratio of mature lesions rather than the latent period for the estimation of the development rate of the fungus is suggested to allow comparison of a large number of individuals....... It is feasible to assess the pathogen biomass by the sterol contents. The need lo verify by field experiments epidemiological parameters assessed under controlled conditions is pointed out, Finally, the way to include these monocyclic parameters in epidemiological and forecasting models is discussed using...

  18. Assessing the Skill of Chlorophyll Forecasts: Latest Development and Challenges Ahead Using the Case of the Equatorial Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rousseaux, Cecile S.; Gregg, Watson W.

    2018-01-01

    Using a global ocean biogeochemical model combined with a forecast of physical oceanic and atmospheric variables from the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, we assess the skill of a chlorophyll concentrations forecast in the Equatorial Pacific for the period 2012-2015 with a focus on the forecast of the onset of the 2015 El Nino event. Using a series of retrospective 9-month hindcasts, we assess the uncertainties of the forecasted chlorophyll by comparing the monthly total chlorophyll concentration from the forecast with the corresponding monthly ocean chlorophyll data from the Suomi-National Polar-orbiting Partnership Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (S-NPP VIIRS) satellite. The forecast was able to reproduce the phasing of the variability in chlorophyll concentration in the Equatorial Pacific, including the beginning of the 2015-2016 El Nino. The anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) was significant (p less than 0.05) for forecast at 1-month (R=0.33), 8-month (R=0.42) and 9-month (R=0.41) lead times. The root mean square error (RMSE) increased from 0.0399 microgram chl L(exp -1) for the 1-month lead forecast to a maximum of 0.0472 microgram chl L(exp -1) for the 9-month lead forecast indicating that the forecast of the amplitude of chlorophyll concentration variability was getting worse. Forecasts with a 3-month lead time were on average the closest to the S-NPP VIIRS data (23% or 0.033 microgram chl L(exp -1)) while the forecast with a 9-month lead time were the furthest (31% or 0.042 microgram chl L(exp -1)). These results indicate the potential for forecasting chlorophyll concentration in this region but also highlights various deficiencies and suggestions for improvements to the current biogeochemical forecasting system. This system provides an initial basis for future applications including the effects of El Nino events on fisheries and other ocean resources given improvements identified in the analysis of these results.

  19. Technology-assisted dietary assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Fengqing; Mariappan, Anand; Boushey, Carol J.; Kerr, Deb; Lutes, Kyle D.; Ebert, David S.; Delp, Edward J.

    2008-02-01

    Dietary intake provides valuable insights for mounting intervention programs for prevention of disease. With growing concern for adolescent obesity, the need to accurately measure diet becomes imperative. Assessment among adolescents is problematic as this group has irregular eating patterns and have less enthusiasm for recording food intake. Preliminary studies among adolescents suggest that innovative use of technology may improve the accuracy of diet information from young people. In this paper, we propose a novel food record method using a mobile device that will provide an accurate account of daily food and nutrient intake among adolescents. Our approach includes the use of image analysis tools for identification and quantification of food consumption. Images obtained before and after food is consumed can be used to estimate the diet of an individual. In this paper we describe our initial results and indicate the potential of the proposed system.

  20. Assessment of US industry's technology trends and new technology requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    1984-01-01

    The utility and effectiveness of a novel approach (the Applications Development, or AD approach), intended to augment the efficiency of NASA's technology utilization (TU) through dissemination of NASA technologies and joint technology development efforts with U.S. industry is tested. The innovative AD approach consists of the following key elements: selection of NASA technologies appearing to have leading edge attributes; interaction with NASA researchers to assess the characteristics and quality of each selected technology; identification of industry's needs in the selected technology areas; structuring the selected technologies in terms of specifications and standards familiar to industry (industrial Spec. Sheets); identification and assessment of industry's interest in the specific selected NASA technologies, utilizing the greatly facilitated communication made possible by the availability of the industrial Spec. Sheets; and matching selected NASA technologies with the needs of selected industries.

  1. How will climate novelty influence ecological forecasts? Using the Quaternary to assess future reliability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitzpatrick, Matthew C; Blois, Jessica L; Williams, John W; Nieto-Lugilde, Diego; Maguire, Kaitlin C; Lorenz, David J

    2018-03-23

    Future climates are projected to be highly novel relative to recent climates. Climate novelty challenges models that correlate ecological patterns to climate variables and then use these relationships to forecast ecological responses to future climate change. Here, we quantify the magnitude and ecological significance of future climate novelty by comparing it to novel climates over the past 21,000 years in North America. We then use relationships between model performance and climate novelty derived from the fossil pollen record from eastern North America to estimate the expected decrease in predictive skill of ecological forecasting models as future climate novelty increases. We show that, in the high emissions scenario (RCP8.5) and by late 21 st century, future climate novelty is similar to or higher than peak levels of climate novelty over the last 21,000 years. The accuracy of ecological forecasting models is projected to decline steadily over the coming decades in response to increasing climate novelty, though models that incorporate co-occurrences among species may retain somewhat higher predictive skill. In addition to quantifying future climate novelty in the context of late Quaternary climate change, this work underscores the challenges of making reliable forecasts to an increasingly novel future, while highlighting the need to assess potential avenues for improvement, such as increased reliance on geological analogues for future novel climates and improving existing models by pooling data through time and incorporating assemblage-level information. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  2. Technology data characterizing space conditioning in commercial buildings: Application to end-use forecasting with COMMEND 4.0

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sezgen, O.; Franconi, E.M.; Koomey, J.G.; Greenberg, S.E.; Afzal, A.; Shown, L.

    1995-12-01

    In the US, energy consumption is increasing most rapidly in the commercial sector. Consequently, the commercial sector is becoming an increasingly important target for state and federal energy policies and also for utility-sponsored demand side management (DSM) programs. The rapid growth in commercial-sector energy consumption also makes it important for analysts working on energy policy and DSM issues to have access to energy end-use forecasting models that include more detailed representations of energy-using technologies in the commercial sector. These new forecasting models disaggregate energy consumption not only by fuel type, end use, and building type, but also by specific technology. The disaggregation of space conditioning end uses in terms of specific technologies is complicated by several factors. First, the number of configurations of heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems and heating and cooling plants is very large. Second, the properties of the building envelope are an integral part of a building`s HVAC energy consumption characteristics. Third, the characteristics of commercial buildings vary greatly by building type. The Electric Power Research Institute`s (EPRI`s) Commercial End-Use Planning System (COMMEND 4.0) and the associated data development presented in this report attempt to address the above complications and create a consistent forecasting framework. This report describes the process by which the authors collected space-conditioning technology data and then mapped it into the COMMEND 4.0 input format. The data are also generally applicable to other end-use forecasting frameworks for the commercial sector.

  3. Iowa DOT library services, collection & technology assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-07-01

    Assesses the impact of library services on research projects, proposes methods to improve the impact of : library services on research projects, assesses current library technology systems and proposes upgrades, : assesses current library collection ...

  4. New developments at the Flood Forecasting Centre: operational flood risk assessment and guidance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilling, Charlie

    2017-04-01

    The Flood Forecasting Centre (FFC) is a partnership between the UK Met Office, the Environment Agency and Natural Resources Wales. The FFC was established in 2009 to provide an overview of flood risk across England and Wales and to provide flood guidance services primarily for the emergency response community. The FFC provides forecasts for all natural sources of flooding, these being fluvial, surface water, coastal and groundwater. This involves an assessment of possible hydrometeorological events and their impacts over the next five days. During times of heightened flood risk, the close communication between the FFC, the Environment Agency and Natural Resources Wales allows mobilization and deployment of staff and flood defences. Following a number of severe flood events during winters 2013-14 and 2015-16, coupled with a drive from the changing landscape in national incident response, there is a desire to identify flood events at even longer lead time. This earlier assessment and mobilization is becoming increasingly important and high profile within Government. For example, following the exceptional flooding across the north of England in December 2015 the Environment Agency have invested in 40 km of temporary barriers that will be moved around the country to help mitigate against the impacts of large flood events. Efficient and effective use of these barriers depends on identifying the broad regions at risk well in advance of the flood, as well as scaling the magnitude and duration of large events. Partly in response to this, the FFC now produce a flood risk assessment for a month ahead. In addition, since January 2017, the 'new generation' daily flood guidance statement includes an assessment of flood risk for the 6 to 10 day period. Examples of both these new products will be introduced, as will some of the new developments in science and technical capability that underpin these assessments. Examples include improvements to fluvial forecasting from 'fluvial

  5. The ethics of assessing health technologies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wilt, G.J. van der; Reuzel, R.; Banta, H.D.

    2000-01-01

    Health technology assessment (HTA) consists of the systematic study of the consequences of the introduction or continued use of the technology in a particular context, with the explicit objective to arrive at a judgment of the value or merit of the technology. Ideally, it is aimed at assessing all

  6. Ethical perspectives on health technology assessment.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Have, H.A.M.J. ten

    2004-01-01

    This study analyses why ethical aspects play a minor role in health technology assessment (HTA) studies, even when comprehensive approaches of technology assessment are advocated. Technology is often regarded as a value-neutral tool. At the same time, bioethics is dominated by an engineering model.

  7. Forecasts of county-level land uses under three future scenarios: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    David N. Wear

    2011-01-01

    Accurately forecasting future forest conditions and the implications for ecosystem services depends on understanding land use dynamics. In support of the 2010 Renewable Resources Planning Act (RPA) Assessment, we forecast changes in land uses for the coterminous United States in response to three scenarios. Our land use models forecast urbanization in response to the...

  8. Modelling in Medical Technology Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B.C. Michel (Bowine)

    1996-01-01

    textabstractHealth care is a rapidly developing field in which new technologies are introduced continuously. Not all new technologies have the same impact however: most represent only small changes in existing technologies, whereas only a few - like organ transplants - really are revolutionary new

  9. ASSESSMENT OF QUALITY OF INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Larisa Alexejevna Ismagilova

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available We consider the topical issue of implementation of innovative technologies in the aircraft engine building industry. In this industry, products with high reliability requirements are developed and mass-produced. These products combine the latest achievements of science and technology. To make a decision on implementation of innovative technologies, a comprehensive assessment is carried out. It affects the efficiency of the innovations realization. In connection with this, the assessment of quality of innovative technologies is a key aspect in the selection of technological processes for their implementation. Problems concerning assessment of the quality of new technologies and processes of production are considered in the suggested method with respect to new positions. The developed method of assessing the quality of innovative technologies stands out for formed system of the qualimetric characteristics ensuring the effectiveness, efficiency, adaptability of innovative technologies and processes. The feature of suggested system of assessment is that it is based on principles of matching and grouping of quality indicators of innovative technologies and the characteristics of technological processes. The indicators are assessed from the standpoint of feasibility, technologies competiveness and commercial demand of products. In this paper, we discuss the example of implementing the approach of assessing the quality of the innovative technology of high-tech products such as turbine aircraft engine.

  10. Solar UV forecasts: a randomized trial assessing their impact on adults' sun-protection behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dixon, Helen G; Hill, David J; Karoly, David J; Jolley, Damien J; Aden, Said M

    2007-06-01

    This study examined the effectiveness of solar UV forecasts and supporting communications in assisting adults to protect themselves from excessive weekend sun exposure. The study was conducted in Australia, where 557 adult participants with workplace e-mail and Internet access were randomly allocated to one of three weather forecast conditions: standard forecast (no UV), standard forecast + UV, standard forecast + UV + sun-protection messages. From late spring through summer and early autumn, they were e-mailed weekend weather forecasts late in the working week. Each Monday they were e-mailed a prompt to complete a Web-based questionnaire to report sun-related behavior and any sunburn experienced during the previous weekend. There were no significant differences between weather forecast conditions in reported hat use, sunscreen use, sun avoidance, or sunburn. Results indicate that provision of solar-UV forecasts in weather forecasts did not promote markedly enhanced personal sun-protection practices among the adults surveyed.

  11. Heat wave over India during summer 2015: an assessment of real time extended range forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pattanaik, D. R.; Mohapatra, M.; Srivastava, A. K.; Kumar, Arun

    2017-08-01

    Hot winds are the marked feature of summer season in India during late spring preceding the climatological onset of the monsoon season in June. Some years the conditions becomes very vulnerable with the maximum temperature ( T max) exceeding 45 °C for many days over parts of north-western, eastern coastal states of India and Indo-Gangetic plain. During summer of 2015 (late May to early June) eastern coastal states, central and northwestern parts of India experienced severe heat wave conditions leading to loss of thousands of human life in extreme high temperature conditions. It is not only the loss of human life but also the animals and birds were very vulnerable to this extreme heat wave conditions. In this study, an attempt is made to assess the performance of real time extended range forecast (forecast up to 3 weeks) of this scorching T max based on the NCEP's Climate Forecast System (CFS) latest version coupled model (CFSv2). The heat wave condition was very severe during the week from 22 to 28 May with subsequent week from 29 May to 4 June also witnessed high T max over many parts of central India including eastern coastal states of India. The 8 ensemble members of operational CFSv2 model are used once in a week to prepare the weekly bias corrected deterministic (ensemble mean) T max forecast for 3 weeks valid from Friday to Thursday coinciding with the heat wave periods of 2015. Using the 8 ensemble members separately and the CFSv2 corresponding hindcast climatology the probability of above and below normal T max is also prepared for the same 3 weeks. The real time deterministic and probabilistic forecasts did indicate impending heat wave over many parts of India during late May and early June of 2015 associated with strong northwesterly wind over main land mass of India, delaying the sea breeze, leading to heat waves over eastern coastal regions of India. Thus, the capability of coupled model in providing early warning of such killer heat wave can be very

  12. An application and verification of ensemble forecasting on wind power to assess operational risk indicators in power grids

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alessandrini, S.; Ciapessoni, E.; Cirio, D.; Pitto, A.; Sperati, S. [Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico RSE S.p.A., Milan (Italy). Power System Development Dept. and Environment and Sustainable Development Dept.; Pinson, P. [Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby (Denmark). DTU Informatics

    2012-07-01

    Wind energy is part of the so-called not schedulable renewable sources, i.e. it must be exploited when it is available, otherwise it is lost. In European regulation it has priority of dispatch over conventional generation, to maximize green energy production. However, being variable and uncertain, wind (and solar) generation raises several issues for the security of the power grids operation. In particular, Transmission System Operators (TSOs) need as accurate as possible forecasts. Nowadays a deterministic approach in wind power forecasting (WPF) could easily be considered insufficient to face the uncertainty associated to wind energy. In order to obtain information about the accuracy of a forecast and a reliable estimation of its uncertainty, probabilistic forecasting is becoming increasingly widespread. In this paper we investigate the performances of the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdelling Limited area Ensemble Prediction System (COSMO-LEPS). First the ensemble application is followed by assessment of its properties (i.e. consistency, reliability) using different verification indices and diagrams calculated on wind power. Then we provide examples of how EPS based wind power forecast can be used in power system security analyses. Quantifying the forecast uncertainty allows to determine more accurately the regulation reserve requirements, hence improving security of operation and reducing system costs. In particular, the paper also presents a probabilistic power flow (PPF) technique developed at RSE and aimed to evaluate the impact of wind power forecast accuracy on the probability of security violations in power systems. (orig.)

  13. Liquefaction technology assessment. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1979-05-01

    A survey of coal liquefaction technology and analysis of projected relative performance of high potential candidates has been completed and the results are reported here. The key objectives of the study included preparation of a broad survey of the status of liquefaction processes under development, selection of a limited number of high potential process candidates for further study, and an analysis of the relative commercial potential of these candidates. Procedures which contributed to the achievement of the above key goals included definition of the characteristics and development status of known major liquefaction process candidates, development of standardized procedures for assessing technical, environmental, economic and product characteristics for the separate candidates, and development of procedures for selecting and comparing high potential processes. The comparisons were made for three production areas and four marketing areas of the US. In view of the broad scope of the objectives the survey was a limited effort. It used the experience gained during preparation of seven comprehensive conceptual designs/economic evaluations plus comprehensive reviews of the designs, construction and operation of several pilot plants. Results and conclusions must be viewed in the perspective of the information available, how this information was treated, and the full context of the economic comparison results. Comparative economics are presented as ratios; they are not intended to be predictors of absolute values. Because the true cost of constructing and operating large coal conversion facilities will be known only after commercialization, relative values are considered more appropriate. (LTN)

  14. An assessment of the ECMWF tropical cyclone ensemble forecasting system and its use for insurance loss predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aemisegger, F.; Martius, O.; Wüest, M.

    2010-09-01

    Tropical cyclones (TC) are amongst the most impressive and destructive weather systems of Earth's atmosphere. The costs related to such intense natural disasters have been rising in recent years and may potentially continue to increase in the near future due to changes in magnitude, timing, duration or location of tropical storms. This is a challenging situation for numerical weather prediction, which should provide a decision basis for short term protective measures through high quality medium range forecasts on the one hand. On the other hand, the insurance system bears great responsibility in elaborating proactive plans in order to face these extreme events that individuals cannot manage independently. Real-time prediction and early warning systems are needed in the insurance sector in order to face an imminent hazard and minimise losses. Early loss estimates are important in order to allocate capital and to communicate to investors. The ECMWF TC identification algorithm delivers information on the track and intensity of storms based on the ensemble forecasting system. This provides a physically based framework to assess the uncertainty in the forecast of a specific event. The performance of the ECMWF TC ensemble forecasts is evaluated in terms of cyclone intensity and location in this study and the value of such a physically-based quantification of uncertainty in the meteorological forecast for the estimation of insurance losses is assessed. An evaluation of track and intensity forecasts of hurricanes in the North Atlantic during the years 2005 to 2009 is carried out. Various effects are studied like the differences in forecasts over land or sea, as well as links between storm intensity and forecast error statistics. The value of the ECMWF TC forecasting system for the global re-insurer Swiss Re was assessed by performing insurance loss predictions using their in-house loss model for several case studies of particularly devastating events. The generally known

  15. Assessment of the forecast skill of spring onset in the NMME experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrillo, C. M.; Ault, T.

    2017-12-01

    This study assesses the predictability of spring onset using an index of its interannual variability. We use the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) experiment to assess this predictability. The input dataset to compute spring onset index, SI-x, were treated with a daily joint bias correction (JBC) approach, and the SI-x outputs were post-processed using three ensemble model output statistic (EMOS) approaches—logistic regression, Gaussian Ensemble Dressing, and non-homogeneous Gaussian regression. These EMOS approaches quantify the effect of training period length and ensemble size on forecast skill. The highest range of predictability for the timing spring onset is from 10 to 60 days, and it is located along a narrow band between 35° to 45°N in the US. Using rank probability scores based on quantiles (q), a forecast threshold (q) of 0.5 provides a range of predictability that falls into two categories 10-40 and 40-60 days, which seems to represent the effect of the intra-seasonal scale. Using higher thresholds (q=0.6 and 0.7) predictability shows lower range with values around 10-30 days. The post-processing work using JBC improves the predictability skill by 13% from uncorrected results. Using EMOS, a significant positive change in the skill score is noted in regions where the skill with JBC shows evidence of improvement. The consensus of these techniques shows that regions of better predictability can be expanded.

  16. Skill assessment of the coupled physical-biogeochemical operational Mediterranean Forecasting System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cossarini, Gianpiero; Clementi, Emanuela; Salon, Stefano; Grandi, Alessandro; Bolzon, Giorgio; Solidoro, Cosimo

    2016-04-01

    The Mediterranean Monitoring and Forecasting Centre (Med-MFC) is one of the regional production centres of the European Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS-Copernicus). Med-MFC operatively manages a suite of numerical model systems (3DVAR-NEMO-WW3 and 3DVAR-OGSTM-BFM) that provides gridded datasets of physical and biogeochemical variables for the Mediterranean marine environment with a horizontal resolution of about 6.5 km. At the present stage, the operational Med-MFC produces ten-day forecast: daily for physical parameters and bi-weekly for biogeochemical variables. The validation of the coupled model system and the estimate of the accuracy of model products are key issues to ensure reliable information to the users and the downstream services. Product quality activities at Med-MFC consist of two levels of validation and skill analysis procedures. Pre-operational qualification activities focus on testing the improvement of the quality of a new release of the model system and relays on past simulation and historical data. Then, near real time (NRT) validation activities aim at the routinely and on-line skill assessment of the model forecast and relays on the NRT available observations. Med-MFC validation framework uses both independent (i.e. Bio-Argo float data, in-situ mooring and vessel data of oxygen, nutrients and chlorophyll, moored buoys, tide-gauges and ADCP of temperature, salinity, sea level and velocity) and semi-independent data (i.e. data already used for assimilation, such as satellite chlorophyll, Satellite SLA and SST and in situ vertical profiles of temperature and salinity from XBT, Argo and Gliders) We give evidence that different variables (e.g. CMEMS-products) can be validated at different levels (i.e. at the forecast level or at the level of model consistency) and at different spatial and temporal scales. The fundamental physical parameters temperature, salinity and sea level are routinely validated on daily, weekly and quarterly base

  17. Assessing uncertainties in flood forecasts for decision making: prototype of an operational flood management system integrating ensemble predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Dietrich

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Ensemble forecasts aim at framing the uncertainties of the potential future development of the hydro-meteorological situation. A probabilistic evaluation can be used to communicate forecast uncertainty to decision makers. Here an operational system for ensemble based flood forecasting is presented, which combines forecasts from the European COSMO-LEPS, SRNWP-PEPS and COSMO-DE prediction systems. A multi-model lagged average super-ensemble is generated by recombining members from different runs of these meteorological forecast systems. A subset of the super-ensemble is selected based on a priori model weights, which are obtained from ensemble calibration. Flood forecasts are simulated by the conceptual rainfall-runoff-model ArcEGMO. Parameter uncertainty of the model is represented by a parameter ensemble, which is a priori generated from a comprehensive uncertainty analysis during model calibration. The use of a computationally efficient hydrological model within a flood management system allows us to compute the hydro-meteorological model chain for all members of the sub-ensemble. The model chain is not re-computed before new ensemble forecasts are available, but the probabilistic assessment of the output is updated when new information from deterministic short range forecasts or from assimilation of measured data becomes available. For hydraulic modelling, with the desired result of a probabilistic inundation map with high spatial resolution, a replacement model can help to overcome computational limitations. A prototype of the developed framework has been applied for a case study in the Mulde river basin. However these techniques, in particular the probabilistic assessment and the derivation of decision rules are still in their infancy. Further research is necessary and promising.

  18. Establishment of Health Technology Assessment in Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shila Doaee

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Objective: Health Technology Assessment (HTA aims at informing healthcare policymakers, managers and practitioners of the "clinical consequences, but also the economic, ethical, and other social implications of the diffusion and use of a specific procedure or technique on medical practice". So considering the policy-oriented nature of HTA that calls for a close integration into the functioning and governance of health systems the present study focuses on executive processes and function of the HTA office of Iran.Materials and methods: Data of this review study were collected through documented sources and observations from 2007 to 2010.Results: Health Technology Assessment began its activities as a secretariat in the Deputy of Health in 2007 and it continues as a Health Technology Assessment Office at the Management of Health Technology Assessment, Standardization, and Tariff at the Deputy of curative affairs of MOHME in the beginning of 2010.14 Technology of modern medical equipment and 8 pharmaceutical medicine are assessed, Now many of measures for HTA establishment  such as cooperation National Institute of Health Research (NIHR, Holding scientific committee meetings, Establishing  the  Master's degree of  health technology assessment ,Building capacities for health technology assessment through education in major universities of the country.Conclusion: pay attention to health technology assessment, selection and application of proper technologies in the frameworks of policy-making and managerial strategies and make efforts to develop it with the support of the governmental in Iran is necessary.

  19. Technology assessment of in situ uranium mining

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cowan, C.E.

    1981-01-01

    The objective of the PNL portion of the Technology Assessment project is to provide a description of the current in situ uranium mining technology; to evaluate, based on available data, the environmental impacts and, in a limited fashion, the health effects; and to explore the impediments to development and deployment of the in situ uranium mining technology

  20. Identifying and Assessing Life-Cycle-Related Critical Technology Elements (CTEs) for Technology Readiness Assessments (TRAs)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Mandelbaum, Jay

    2006-01-01

    .... Because these technologies are not emphasized in the current Technology Readiness Assessment (TRA) process this document is intended to improve the focus on life-cycle-related technologies in TRAs...

  1. Technology assessment of thermal treatment technologies using ORWARE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Assefa, G.; Eriksson, O.; Frostell, B.

    2005-01-01

    A technology assessment of thermal treatment technologies for wastes was performed in the form of scenarios of chains of technologies. The Swedish assessment tool, ORWARE, was used for the assessment. The scenarios of chains of thermal technologies assessed were gasification with catalytic combustion, gasification with flame combustion, incineration and landfilling. The landfilling scenario was used as a reference for comparison. The technologies were assessed from ecological and economic points of view. The results are presented in terms of global warming potential, acidification potential, eutrophication potential, consumption of primary energy carriers and welfare costs. From the simulations, gasification followed by catalytic combustion with energy recovery in a combined cycle appeared to be the most competitive technology from an ecological point of view. On the other hand, this alternative was more expensive than incineration. A sensitivity analysis was done regarding electricity prices to show which technology wins at what value of the unit price of electricity (SEK/kW h). Within this study, it was possible to make a comparison both between a combined cycle and a Rankine cycle (a system pair) and at the same time between flame combustion and catalytic combustion (a technology pair). To use gasification just as a treatment technology is not more appealing than incineration, but the possibility of combining gasification with a combined cycle is attractive in terms of electricity production. This research was done in connection with an empirical R and D work on both gasification of waste and catalytic combustion of the gasified waste at the Division of Chemical Technology, Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Sweden

  2. Identification of the actual state and entity availability forecasting in power engineering using neural-network technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Protalinsky, O. M.; Shcherbatov, I. A.; Stepanov, P. V.

    2017-11-01

    A growing number of severe accidents in RF call for the need to develop a system that could prevent emergency situations. In a number of cases accident rate is stipulated by careless inspections and neglects in developing repair programs. Across the country rates of accidents are growing because of a so-called “human factor”. In this regard, there has become urgent the problem of identification of the actual state of technological facilities in power engineering using data on engineering processes running and applying artificial intelligence methods. The present work comprises four model states of manufacturing equipment of engineering companies: defect, failure, preliminary situation, accident. Defect evaluation is carried out using both data from SCADA and ASEPCR and qualitative information (verbal assessments of experts in subject matter, photo- and video materials of surveys processed using pattern recognition methods in order to satisfy the requirements). Early identification of defects makes possible to predict the failure of manufacturing equipment using mathematical techniques of artificial neural network. In its turn, this helps to calculate predicted characteristics of reliability of engineering facilities using methods of reliability theory. Calculation of the given parameters provides the real-time estimation of remaining service life of manufacturing equipment for the whole operation period. The neural networks model allows evaluating possibility of failure of a piece of equipment consistent with types of actual defects and their previous reasons. The article presents the grounds for a choice of training and testing samples for the developed neural network, evaluates the adequacy of the neural networks model, and shows how the model can be used to forecast equipment failure. There have been carried out simulating experiments using a computer and retrospective samples of actual values for power engineering companies. The efficiency of the developed

  3. Twenty-Two Years of Inflation Assessment and Forecasting Experience at the Bulletin of EU & US Inflation and Macroeconomic Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antoni Espasa

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The Bulletin of EU & US Inflation and Macroeconomic Analysis (BIAM is a monthly publication that has been reporting real time analysis and forecasts for inflation and other macroeconomic aggregates for the Euro Area, the US and Spain since 1994. The BIAM inflation forecasting methodology stands on working with useful disaggregation schemes, using leading indicators when possible and applying outlier correction. The paper relates this methodology to corresponding topics in the literature and discusses the design of disaggregation schemes. It concludes that those schemes would be useful if they were formulated according to economic, institutional and statistical criteria aiming to end up with a set of components with very different statistical properties for which valid single-equation models could be built. The BIAM assessment, which derives from a new observation, is based on (a an evaluation of the forecasting errors (innovations at the components’ level. It provides information on which sectors they come from and allows, when required, for the appropriate correction in the specific models. (b In updating the path forecast with its corresponding fan chart. Finally, we show that BIAM real time Euro Area inflation forecasts compare successfully with the consensus from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters, one and two years ahead.

  4. ASSESSMENT OF QUALITY OF INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGIES

    OpenAIRE

    Larisa Alexejevna Ismagilova; Nadegda Aleksandrovna Sukhova

    2016-01-01

    We consider the topical issue of implementation of innovative technologies in the aircraft engine building industry. In this industry, products with high reliability requirements are developed and mass-produced. These products combine the latest achievements of science and technology. To make a decision on implementation of innovative technologies, a comprehensive assessment is carried out. It affects the efficiency of the innovations realization. In connection with this, the assessment of qu...

  5. Life Cycle Assessment of Slurry Management Technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wesnæs, Marianne; Wenzel, Henrik; Petersen, Bjørn Molt

    This report contains the results of Life Cycle Assessments of two slurry management technologies - acidification and decentred incineration. The LCA foundation can be used by the contributing companies for evaluating the environmental sustainability of a specific technology from a holistic Life...... Cycle perspective. Through this the companies can evaluate the environmental benefits and disadvantages of introducing a specific technology for slurry management. From a societal perspective the results can contribute to a clarification of which slurry management technologies (or combination...

  6. Technology data characterizing lighting in commercial buildings: Application to end-use forecasting with commend 4.0

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sezgen, A.O.; Huang, Y.J.; Atkinson, B.A.; Eto, J.H.; Koomey, J.G.

    1994-05-01

    End-use forecasting models typically utilize technology tradeoff curves to represent technology options available to consumers. A tradeoff curve, in general terms, is a functional form which relates efficiency to capital cost. Each end-use is modeled by a single tradeoff curve. This type of representation is satisfactory in the analysis of many policy options. On the other hand, for policies addressing individual technology options or groups of technology options, because individual technology options are accessible to the analyst, representation in such reduced form is not satisfactory. To address this and other analysis needs, the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) has enhanced its Commercial End-Use Planning System (COMMEND) to allow modeling of specific lighting and space conditioning (HVAC) technology options. This report characterizes the present commercial floorstock in terms of lighting technologies and develops cost-efficiency data for these lighting technologies. This report also characterizes the interactions between the lighting and space conditioning end uses in commercial buildings in the US In general, lighting energy reductions increase the heating and decrease the cooling requirements. The net change in a building`s energy requirements, however, depends on the building characteristics, operating conditions, and the climate. Lighting/HVAC interactions data were generated through computer simulations using the DOE-2 building energy analysis program.

  7. A biometeorological procedure for weather forecast to assess the optimal outdoor clothing insulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morabito, Marco; Crisci, Alfonso; Cecchi, Lorenzo; Modesti, Pietro Amedeo; Maracchi, Giampiero; Gensini, Gian Franco; Orlandini, Simone

    2008-09-01

    Clothing insulation represents an important parameter strongly dependent on climate/weather variability and directly involved in the assessment of the human energy balance. Few studies tried to explore the influence of climate changes on the optimal clothing insulation for outdoor spaces. For this reason, the aim of this work was to investigate mainly the optimal outdoor minimum clothing insulation value required to reach the thermal neutrality (min_clo) related to climate change on a seasonal basis. Subsequently, we developed an example of operational biometeorological procedure to provide 72-hour forecast maps concerning the min_clo. Hourly meteorological data were provided by three Italian weather stations located in Turin, Rome and Palermo, for the period 1951-1995. Environmental variables and subjective characteristics referred to an average adult young male at rest and at a very high metabolic rate were used as input variables to calculate the min_clo by using a thermal index based on the human energy balance. Trends of min_clo were assessed by a non-parametric statistical method. Results showed a lower magnitude of trends in a subject at a very high metabolic rate than at rest. Turin always showed a decrease of min_clo during the study period and prevalently negative trends were also observed in Palermo. On the other hand, an opposite situation was observed in Rome, especially during the morning in all seasons. The development of a daily operational procedure to forecast customized min_clo could provide useful information for the outdoor clothing fitting that might help to reduce the weather-related human health risk.

  8. Pavement condition assessment to forecast maintenance program on JKR state roads in Petaling district

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamsan, R.; Hafiz, H.; Azlan, A.; Keprawi, M. F.; Malik, A. K. A.; Adamuddin, A.; Abdullah, A. H.; Shafie, A. M.

    2018-02-01

    This research allows local authorities to project road maintenance in term of activities and financial expenditure through pavement condition assessment and then Highway Development and Management (HDM-4) analysis. Current form of road maintenance carried out by local authority is on reactive manner where corrective actions were taken based on reports recorded. Some went unrecorded hence causing prolonged damages. This causes the local authority unable to project the required cost to maintain the roads. This affects the socio-economy of the surrounding routes. Hence, it is seen, as preventive maintenance of the roads will provide more feasible option in term of work force and finance to the local authority. To overcome this issue, a preventive model was introduced. This was done through pavement condition assessment (PCA) where analysis was done through HDM-4. Nondestructive test and destructive test were conducted in order to provide an indicator to the road's health. This were then analyzed in HDM-4 where the result was benchmarked with maintenance standard. The scope of this research is set to PCA where DT and NDT were performed on the routes of Petaling and the output is analyzed in HDM-4. The result of this research provides a 10 years forecast maintenance budget in maintaining the roads in Petaling. This allows the local authority to perform good practice in term of maintaining the roads while at the same time helps them in forecasting their budget for the upcoming years. This research will have a strong impact on the local socio-economy as well as local road user confidence towards the authority over good practices. This research can be further expanded to other type of roads as well as highway bridges.

  9. Small Wind Turbine Technology Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avia Aranda, F.; Cruz Cruz, I.

    1999-01-01

    The result of the study carried out under the scope of the ATYCA project Test Plant of Wind Systems for Isolated Applications, about the state of art of the small wind turbine technology (wind turbines with swept area smaller than 40 m 2 ) is presented. The study analyzes the collected information on 60 models of wind turbines from 23 manufacturers in the worldwide market. Data from Chinese manufacturers, that have a large participation in the total number of small wind turbines in operation, are not included, due to the unavailability of the technical information. (Author) 15 refs

  10. Health technology assessment in oral health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esfandiari, Shahrokh; Feine, Jocelyne

    2011-01-01

    Health-care costs are rising at an alarmingly fast rate worldwide, particularly in developed countries such as the United States. This is predominantly a result of the development of new, high-cost health technologies intended for improved diagnosis and treatment. The purpose of health technology assessment is to systematically determine the true benefits of new technologies, taking into account clinical efficacy/effectiveness and cost as well as societal preference and ethical issues. In this report, the purpose of health technology assessment is explained in light of new developments in oral health technology, particularly intraoral implants. This information is intended to educate and to challenge oral health opinion leaders to consider all of the issues involved in the development and diffusion of new oral health technologies.

  11. Adaptive Opportunistic Cooperative Control Mechanism Based on Combination Forecasting and Multilevel Sensing Technology of Sensors for Mobile Internet of Things

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yong Jin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In mobile Internet of Things, there are many challenges, including sensing technology of sensors, how and when to join cooperative transmission, and how to select the cooperative sensors. To address these problems, we studied the combination forecasting based on the multilevel sensing technology of sensors, building upon which we proposed the adaptive opportunistic cooperative control mechanism based on the threshold values such as activity probability, distance, transmitting power, and number of relay sensors, in consideration of signal to noise ratio and outage probability. More importantly, the relay sensors would do self-test real time in order to judge whether to join the cooperative transmission, for maintaining the optimal cooperative transmission state with high performance. The mathematical analyses results show that the proposed adaptive opportunistic cooperative control approach could perform better in terms of throughput ratio, packet error rate and delay, and energy efficiency, compared with the direct transmission and opportunistic cooperative approaches.

  12. Assessing spatio-temporal eruption forecasts in a monogenetic volcanic field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bebbington, Mark S.

    2013-02-01

    Many spatio-temporal models have been proposed for forecasting the location and timing of the next eruption in a monogenetic volcanic field. These have almost invariably been fitted retrospectively. That is, the model has been tuned to all of the data, and hence an assessment of the goodness of fit has not been carried out on independent data. The low rate of eruptions in monogenetic fields means that there is not the opportunity to carry out a purely prospective test, as thousands of years would be required to accumulate the necessary data. This leaves open the possibility of a retrospective sequential test, where the parameters are calculated only on the basis of prior events and the resulting forecast compared statistically with the location and time of the next eruption. In general, events in volcanic fields are not dated with sufficient accuracy and precision to pursue this line of investigation; An exception is the Auckland Volcanic Field (New Zealand), consisting of c. 50 centers formed during the last c. 250 kyr, for which an age-order model exists in the form of a Monte Carlo sampling algorithm, facilitating repeated sequential testing. I examine a suite of spatial, temporal and spatio-temporal hazard models, comparing the degree of fit, and attempt to draw lessons from how and where each model is particularly successful or unsuccessful. A relatively simple (independent) combination of a renewal model (temporal term) and a spatially uniform ellipse (spatial term) performs as well as any other model. Both avoid over fitting the data, and hence large errors, when the spatio-temporal occurrence pattern changes.

  13. Assessing medical technologies in development; a new paradigm of medical technology assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hummel, J. Marjan; van Rossum, Wouter; Verkerke, Gijsbertus Jacob; Rakhorst, Gerhard

    2000-01-01

    Objective: Our study aims to provide a practical contribution to the field of medical technology assessment within a new paradigm. This paradigm indicates the need for more comprehensive technology assessments in the development stage of a new technology. - Method: We introduce a method, based on

  14. Assessing medical technologies in development - A new paradigm of medical technology assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hummel, MJM; van Rossum, W; Verkerke, GJ; Rakhorst, G

    2000-01-01

    Objective: Our study aims to provide a practical contribution to the field of medical technology assessment within a new paradigm. This paradigm indicates the need for more comprehensive technology assessments in the development stage of a new technology. Method: We introduce a method, based on

  15. Using Enabling Technologies to Facilitate the Comparison of Satellite Observations with the Model Forecasts for Hurricane Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, P.; Knosp, B.; Hristova-Veleva, S. M.; Niamsuwan, N.; Johnson, M. P.; Shen, T. P. J.; Tanelli, S.; Turk, J.; Vu, Q. A.

    2014-12-01

    Due to their complexity and volume, the satellite data are underutilized in today's hurricane research and operations. To better utilize these data, we developed the JPL Tropical Cyclone Information System (TCIS) - an Interactive Data Portal providing fusion between Near-Real-Time satellite observations and model forecasts to facilitate model evaluation and improvement. We have collected satellite observations and model forecasts in the Atlantic Basin and the East Pacific for the hurricane seasons since 2010 and supported the NASA Airborne Campaigns for Hurricane Study such as the Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) in 2010 and the Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) from 2012 to 2014. To enable the direct inter-comparisons of the satellite observations and the model forecasts, the TCIS was integrated with the NASA Earth Observing System Simulator Suite (NEOS3) to produce synthetic observations (e.g. simulated passive microwave brightness temperatures) from a number of operational hurricane forecast models (HWRF and GFS). An automated process was developed to trigger NEOS3 simulations via web services given the location and time of satellite observations, monitor the progress of the NEOS3 simulations, display the synthetic observation and ingest them into the TCIS database when they are done. In addition, three analysis tools, the joint PDF analysis of the brightness temperatures, ARCHER for finding the storm-center and the storm organization and the Wave Number Analysis tool for storm asymmetry and morphology analysis were integrated into TCIS to provide statistical and structural analysis on both observed and synthetic data. Interactive tools were built in the TCIS visualization system to allow the spatial and temporal selections of the datasets, the invocation of the tools with user specified parameters, and the display and the delivery of the results. In this presentation, we will describe the key enabling technologies behind the design of

  16. Health technology assessment. Evaluation of biomedical innovative technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turchetti, Giuseppe; Spadoni, Enza; Geisler, Eliezer Elie

    2010-01-01

    This article describes health technology assessment (HTA) as an evaluation tool that applies systematic methods of inquiry to the generation and use of health technologies and new products. The focus of this article is on the contributions of HTA to the management of the new product development effort in the biomedical organization. Critical success factors (CSFs) are listed, and their role in assessing success is defined and explained. One of the conclusions of this article is that HTA is a powerful tool for managers in the biomedical sector, allowing them to better manage their innovation effort in their continuing struggle for competitiveness and survival.

  17. Inferential, non-parametric statistics to assess the quality of probabilistic forecast systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maia, A.H.N.; Meinke, H.B.; Lennox, S.; Stone, R.C.

    2007-01-01

    Many statistical forecast systems are available to interested users. To be useful for decision making, these systems must be based on evidence of underlying mechanisms. Once causal connections between the mechanism and its statistical manifestation have been firmly established, the forecasts must

  18. An environmental assessment system for environmental technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clavreul, Julie; Baumeister, Hubert; Christensen, Thomas Højlund

    2014-01-01

    A new model for the environmental assessment of environmental technologies, EASETECH, has been developed. The primary aim of EASETECH is to perform life-cycle assessment (LCA) of complex systems handling heterogeneous material flows. The objectives of this paper are to describe the EASETECH...

  19. Assessment and limits of the existent seasonal forecasts as support for the decision making process in the Sahel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacci, Maurizio; Genesio, Lorenzo; di Vecchia, Andrea; Tarchiani, Vieri; Vignaroli, Patrizio

    2010-05-01

    The economy of West Africa sahelian countries is based on the primary sector and the population's food security is strictly linked to rainfed crops production. The sahelian countries constitute a belt from Senegal to Chad characterized by an unimodal rainfall distribution during the summer months. The rainfall spatial and time distribution are very variable: dry spells and shifts in the rainy season onset are very frequent. The famines that stroke the region in the past demonstrate that in these ecosystems drought represents a key factor for the food security. In particular, anomalies in precipitation amount and distribution represent the major cause of losses in rainfed agriculture. The early availability of information on the development of the rainy season is essential for decision makers to assess the level of risk in terms of spatial extension and intensity, to take consequent decision on the mobilization of national/international stocks and to provide information for farmers orienting their choices for risk reduction. Addressing these needs, since late 90's the scientific community begins to develop long term meteorological forecast models. Nowadays, despite the general awareness on their potential role in food crises prevention, seasonal forecasts are still under exploited at regional/national level. Indeed, the major constraints to their operational use are (i) the reduced skill in intercepting key aspects of the agricultural season such as starting and ending date and presence of dry spells, and (ii) the difficulty of decision makers of understanding and consequently handling the level of uncertainty of the predictive information. Today the growing demand for early information to support decision-making requires an improvement in the suitability of seasonal forecasts and in their tailoring to users. The aim of this paper is contributing to the scientific debate on Seasonal Forecast proposing possible orientations for models further development and the

  20. Benchmarking computational fluid dynamics models of lava flow simulation for hazard assessment, forecasting, and risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietterich, Hannah; Lev, Einat; Chen, Jiangzhi; Richardson, Jacob A.; Cashman, Katharine V.

    2017-01-01

    Numerical simulations of lava flow emplacement are valuable for assessing lava flow hazards, forecasting active flows, designing flow mitigation measures, interpreting past eruptions, and understanding the controls on lava flow behavior. Existing lava flow models vary in simplifying assumptions, physics, dimensionality, and the degree to which they have been validated against analytical solutions, experiments, and natural observations. In order to assess existing models and guide the development of new codes, we conduct a benchmarking study of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models for lava flow emplacement, including VolcFlow, OpenFOAM, FLOW-3D, COMSOL, and MOLASSES. We model viscous, cooling, and solidifying flows over horizontal planes, sloping surfaces, and into topographic obstacles. We compare model results to physical observations made during well-controlled analogue and molten basalt experiments, and to analytical theory when available. Overall, the models accurately simulate viscous flow with some variability in flow thickness where flows intersect obstacles. OpenFOAM, COMSOL, and FLOW-3D can each reproduce experimental measurements of cooling viscous flows, and OpenFOAM and FLOW-3D simulations with temperature-dependent rheology match results from molten basalt experiments. We assess the goodness-of-fit of the simulation results and the computational cost. Our results guide the selection of numerical simulation codes for different applications, including inferring emplacement conditions of past lava flows, modeling the temporal evolution of ongoing flows during eruption, and probabilistic assessment of lava flow hazard prior to eruption. Finally, we outline potential experiments and desired key observational data from future flows that would extend existing benchmarking data sets.

  1. Development of an Impact-Oriented Quantitative Coastal Inundation forecasting and early warning system with social and economic assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fakhruddin, S. H. M.; Babel, Mukand S.; Kawasaki, Akiyuki

    2014-05-01

    Coastal inundations are an increasing threat to the lives and livelihoods of people living in low-lying, highly-populated coastal areas. According to a World Bank Report in 2005, at least 2.6 million people may have drowned due to coastal inundation, particularly caused by storm surges, over the last 200 years. Forecasting and prediction of natural events, such as tropical and extra-tropical cyclones, inland flooding, and severe winter weather, provide critical guidance to emergency managers and decision-makers from the local to the national level, with the goal of minimizing both human and economic losses. This guidance is used to facilitate evacuation route planning, post-disaster response and resource deployment, and critical infrastructure protection and securing, and it must be available within a time window in which decision makers can take appropriate action. Recognizing this extreme vulnerability of coastal areas to inundation/flooding, and with a view to improve safety-related services for the community, research should strongly enhance today's forecasting, prediction and early warning capabilities in order to improve the assessment of coastal vulnerability and risks and develop adequate prevention, mitigation and preparedness measures. This paper tries to develop an impact-oriented quantitative coastal inundation forecasting and early warning system with social and economic assessment to address the challenges faced by coastal communities to enhance their safety and to support sustainable development, through the improvement of coastal inundation forecasting and warning systems.

  2. A Novel Method for Technology Forecasting and Developing R&D Strategy of Building Integrated Photovoltaic Technology Industry

    OpenAIRE

    Chiu, Yu-Jing; Ying, Tao-Ming

    2012-01-01

    Because of global warming, renewable energy technologies have become more essential currently, with solar energy technology advancing worldwide. Therefore, interdisciplinary integration is an important trend, and building-integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) is an emerging technology involving the photovoltaic and building fields. The purpose of this study is to understand the technology evolution of BIPV and to determine the R&D planning direction. This paper proposes a hybrid approach to explore ...

  3. Social Shaping in Danish Technology Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Anne Grethe; Clausen, Christian

    2003-01-01

    The term ‘social shaping of technology’ has been used broadly as a response to techno-economic deterministic understandings of the relations between technology and society. Social shaping has brought together analysts from different backgrounds who share a common interest in the role of social an...... in these projects contributed to new insights into the processes of technological change and thus to policy formulation. The social shaping perspective and technology assessment experiences are suggested as important guides to future technology strategies....... and political action for technology change. The authors of this article suggest that the social shaping perspective draws on lessons from technology assessments of earlier decades, lessons about the role of technology debate, participation and democratic control. We suggest that these are important......The term ‘social shaping of technology’ has been used broadly as a response to techno-economic deterministic understandings of the relations between technology and society. Social shaping has brought together analysts from different backgrounds who share a common interest in the role of social...

  4. The Past and the Future of Constructive Technology Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schot, Johan; Rip, Arie

    1997-01-01

    Constructive technology assessment (CTA) is a member of the family of technology assessment approaches. developed in particular in the Netherlands and Denmark. CTA shifts the focus away from assessing impacts of new technologies to broadening design, development, and implementation processes.

  5. Technology assessment and social science research on technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thienen, V. von

    1983-01-01

    In a first step this bibliography wants to overcome the want of systematic scientific data compilations and evaluations of experiences in studies on technology assessment. It concentrates on the social and political aspects of the development of technologies and the decision on their utilization by presenting titles which have been published in English- and German-speaking countries in the past decade. The bibliography is divided into various chapters and subchapters. The index part contains authors' indexes and publishers' indexes, subject indexes, other bibliographies and selected periodicals. (orig.) With 1647 refs [de

  6. The main pillar: Assessment of space weather observational asset performance supporting nowcasting, forecasting, and research to operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Posner, A; Hesse, M; St Cyr, O C

    2014-04-01

    Space weather forecasting critically depends upon availability of timely and reliable observational data. It is therefore particularly important to understand how existing and newly planned observational assets perform during periods of severe space weather. Extreme space weather creates challenging conditions under which instrumentation and spacecraft may be impeded or in which parameters reach values that are outside the nominal observational range. This paper analyzes existing and upcoming observational capabilities for forecasting, and discusses how the findings may impact space weather research and its transition to operations. A single limitation to the assessment is lack of information provided to us on radiation monitor performance, which caused us not to fully assess (i.e., not assess short term) radiation storm forecasting. The assessment finds that at least two widely spaced coronagraphs including L4 would provide reliability for Earth-bound CMEs. Furthermore, all magnetic field measurements assessed fully meet requirements. However, with current or even with near term new assets in place, in the worst-case scenario there could be a near-complete lack of key near-real-time solar wind plasma data of severe disturbances heading toward and impacting Earth's magnetosphere. Models that attempt to simulate the effects of these disturbances in near real time or with archival data require solar wind plasma observations as input. Moreover, the study finds that near-future observational assets will be less capable of advancing the understanding of extreme geomagnetic disturbances at Earth, which might make the resulting space weather models unsuitable for transition to operations. Manuscript assesses current and near-future space weather assetsCurrent assets unreliable for forecasting of severe geomagnetic stormsNear-future assets will not improve the situation.

  7. Chemical spill model (CHEMMAP) for forecasts/hindcasts and environmental risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    French McCay, D.P.

    2001-01-01

    CHEMMAP is a newly developed three-dimensional, chemical spill model that is used to predict the trajectory and fate of a wide variety of chemical products including floating, sinking, soluble and insoluble chemicals and product mixtures. The model, which was developed by Applied Science Associates Inc., also provides a powerful quantitative tool for estimating the potential impacts of chemical releases. The model incorporates the following components: (1) simulation of the initial release for surface and subsurface spills, (2) slick spreading, transport and entrainment of floating materials, (3) transport of dissolved and particulate materials in three dimensions, (4) evaporation and volatilization, (5) dissolution and adsorption, (6) sedimentation and resuspension, and (7) degradation. The fate of chemical spills are predicted by analyzing physical-chemical properties such as density, vapor pressure, water solubility, environmental degradation rates, adsorbed/dissolved partitioning coefficients, viscosity and surface tension. The distribution of chemicals on the water surface, on shorelines, in the water column and in the sediments can also be estimated. The model can separately track surface slicks, entrained droplets or particles of pure chemical, chemical adsorbed to suspended particulates, and dissolved chemicals. It can be used for forecasting expected water concentrations and atmospheric flux for real events and stochastic applications for ecological risk assessment of chemical spills associated with oil and gas operations in the Gulf of Mexico. 16 refs., 4 tabs., 16 figs

  8. Assessment of Methods for Forecasting Shale Gas Supply in China Based on Economic Considerations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoqian Guo

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Shale gas, with its lower carbon content and pollution potential, is the most promising natural gas resource in China. When modeling the shale gas supply in a specific gas field, it is of paramount importance to determine the gas supply under economic considerations. Two common calculation methods are used in China for this purpose: Method 1 (M1 is the breakeven analysis, where the gas supply is based on the relationship between costs and revenues, while Method 2 (M2 is the Geologic Resource Supply-Demand Model, where the supply relies on demand and price scenarios. No comparisons has been made between these two methods. In this study, the Fuling shale gas field in the Sichuan Basin was chosen as a study case to forecast the shale gas supply using these two different methods. A sensitivity analysis was performed to discuss the influencing factors of each method and error measures were used to compare the different shale gas supply values calculated by each method. The results shows that M1 is more sensitive to initial production, while M2 is more sensitive to gas price. In addition, M2 is more feasible for its simplicity and accuracy at high price scenarios and M1 is considered to be reliable for low price scenarios with profit. This study can provide a quick and comprehensive assessment method for the shale gas supply in China.

  9. Independent Assessment of Technology Characterizations to Support the Biomass Program Annual State-of-Technology Assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yeh, B.

    2011-03-01

    This report discusses an investigation that addressed two thermochemical conversion pathways for the production of liquid fuels and addressed the steps to the process, the technology providers, a method for determining the state of technology and a tool to continuously assess the state of technology. This report summarizes the findings of the investigation as well as recommendations for improvements for future studies.

  10. Comparative assessment of several post-processing methods for correcting evapotranspiration forecasts derived from TIGGE datasets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, D.; Medina, H.

    2017-12-01

    Post-processing of medium range reference evapotranspiration (ETo) forecasts based on numerical weather prediction (NWP) models has the potential of improving the quality and utility of these forecasts. This work compares the performance of several post-processing methods for correcting ETo forecasts over the continental U.S. generated from The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) database using data from Europe (EC), the United Kingdom (MO), and the United States (NCEP). The pondered post-processing techniques are: simple bias correction, the use of multimodels, the Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS, Gneitting et al., 2005) and the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA, Raftery et al., 2005). ETo estimates based on quality-controlled U.S. Regional Climate Reference Network measurements, and computed with the FAO 56 Penman Monteith equation, are adopted as baseline. EMOS and BMA are generally the most efficient post-processing techniques of the ETo forecasts. Nevertheless, the simple bias correction of the best model is commonly much more rewarding than using multimodel raw forecasts. Our results demonstrate the potential of different forecasting and post-processing frameworks in operational evapotranspiration and irrigation advisory systems at national scale.

  11. Analysing UK real estate market forecast disagreement

    OpenAIRE

    McAllister, Patrick; Newell, G.; Matysiak, George

    2005-01-01

    Given the significance of forecasting in real estate investment decisions, this paper investigates forecast uncertainty and disagreement in real estate market forecasts. Using the Investment Property Forum (IPF) quarterly survey amongst UK independent real estate forecasters, these real estate forecasts are compared with actual real estate performance to assess a number of real estate forecasting issues in the UK over 1999-2004, including real estate forecast error, bias and consensus. The re...

  12. Assessing the Effectiveness of the Cone of Probability as a Visual Means of Communicating Scientific Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orlove, B. S.; Broad, K.; Meyer, R.

    2010-12-01

    We review the evolution, communication, and differing interpretations of the National Hurricane Center (NHC)'s "cone of uncertainty" hurricane forecast graphic, drawing on several related disciplines—cognitive psychology, visual anthropology, and risk communication theory. We examine the 2004 hurricane season, two specific hurricanes (Katrina 2005 and Ike 2008) and the 2010 hurricane season, still in progress. During the 2004 hurricane season, five named storms struck Florida. Our analysis of that season draws upon interviews with key government officials and media figures, archival research of Florida newspapers, analysis of public comments on the NHC cone of uncertainty graphic and a multiagency study of 2004 hurricane behavior. At that time, the hurricane forecast graphic was subject to misinterpretation by many members of the public. We identify several characteristics of this graphic that contributed to public misinterpretation. Residents overemphasized the specific track of the eye, failed to grasp the width of hurricanes, and generally did not recognize the timing of the passage of the hurricane. Little training was provided to emergency response managers in the interpretation of forecasts. In the following year, Katrina became a national scandal, further demonstrating the limitations of the cone as a means of leading to appropriate responses to forecasts. In the second half of the first decade of the 21st century, three major changes occurred in hurricane forecast communication: the forecasts themselves improved in terms of accuracy and lead time, the NHC made minor changes in the graphics and expanded the explanatory material that accompanies the graphics, and some efforts were made to reach out to emergency response planners and municipal officials to enhance their understanding of the forecasts and graphics. There were some improvements in the responses to Ike, though a number of deaths were due to inadequate evacuations, and property damage probably

  13. A multivariate timeseries modeling approach to severity of illness assessment and forecasting in ICU with sparse, heterogeneous clinical data

    OpenAIRE

    Pimentel, Marco A. F.; Clifton, David A.; Ghassemi, Marzyeh; Naumann, Tristan Josef; Brennan, Thomas P; Szolovits, Peter; Feng, Mengling

    2015-01-01

    The ability to determine patient acuity (or severity of illness) has immediate practical use for clinicians. We evaluate the use of multivariate timeseries modeling with the multi-task Gaussian process (GP) models using noisy, incomplete, sparse, heterogeneous and unevenly-sampled clinical data, including both physiological signals and clinical notes. The learned multi-task GP (MTGP) hyperparameters are then used to assess and forecast patient acuity. Experiments were conducted with two real ...

  14. STAR 21, Technology Forecast Assessments. Strategic Technologies for the Army of the Twenty-First Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-01-01

    capabilities for chameleon surfaces and other means of signature control over a wide spectral range; and * electrostrictive materials for active...as they are discovered and for old ones as they mutate and develop resistance. In the future, we could be able to fortify the human immunological...lightweight foam-fiber body armor, selected organisms with chameleon properties, small articulated surveillance units (1.0 m x 0.5 m x 0.5 m) coupled to

  15. Biomass Gasification Technology Assessment: Consolidated Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Worley, M.; Yale, J.

    2012-11-01

    Harris Group Inc. (HGI) was commissioned by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory to assess gasification and tar reforming technologies. Specifically, the assessments focused on gasification and tar reforming technologies that are capable of producing a syngas suitable for further treatment and conversion to liquid fuels. HGI gathered sufficient information to analyze three gasification and tar reforming systems. This report summarizes the equipment, general arrangement of the equipment, operating characteristics, and operating severity for each technology. The order of magnitude capital cost estimates are supported by a basis-of-estimate write-up, which is also included in this report. The report also includes Microsoft Excel workbook models, which can be used to design and price the systems. The models can be used to analyze various operating capacities and pressures. Each model produces a material balance, equipment list, capital cost estimate, equipment drawings and preliminary general arrangement drawings. Example outputs of each model are included in the Appendices.

  16. Expanding the applicability of Heallth Technology Assessments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Draborg, Eva; Hansen, Helle Ploug

    2012-01-01

    The objective of the presentation is to expand the foundations of input into policy decision making relying on health technology assessments (HTA). HTAs are primarily based on systematic reviews (SR) and thereby mostly on randomized controlled trials (RCT). RCTs can be distinguished on a continuu...

  17. Assessment of technology generating institutions in biotechnology ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Assessment of technology generating institutions in biotechnology innovation system of South-Eastern Nigeria. ... Results of the study revealed that some of the institutions have been involved in biotechnology research for the past two decades but have only significantly invested on bio-processing (58.8%) and cell and ...

  18. Technology and assessment of neutron absorbing materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kelly, B.T.; Murgatroyd, R.A.

    1977-06-01

    The present review assesses more recent developments in the technology and application of those absorber materials which are considered to be established or to have shown potential in reactor control. Emphasis is placed on physical, chemical and metallurgical properties and upon irradiation behaviour. (author)

  19. Assessment of Sensor Technologies for Advanced Reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Korsah, Kofi [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Ramuhalli, Pradeep [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Vlim, R. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Kisner, Roger A. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Britton, Jr, Charles L. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Wootan, D. W. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Anheier, Jr, N. C. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Diaz, A. A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hirt, E. H. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Chien, H. T. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Sheen, S. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Bakhtiari, Sasan [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Gopalsami, S. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Heifetz, A. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Tam, S. W. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Park, Y. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Upadhyaya, B. R. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Stanford, A. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)

    2016-10-01

    Sensors and measurement technologies provide information on processes, support operations and provide indications of component health. They are therefore crucial to plant operations and to commercialization of advanced reactors (AdvRx). This report, developed by a three-laboratory team consisting of Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), provides an assessment of sensor technologies and a determination of measurement needs for AdvRx. It provides the technical basis for identifying and prioritizing research targets within the instrumentation and control (I&C) Technology Area under the Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Advanced Reactor Technology (ART) program and contributes to the design and implementation of AdvRx concepts.

  20. Assessing the Effects of Climate Variability on Orange Yield in Florida to Reduce Production Forecast Errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Concha Larrauri, P.

    2015-12-01

    Orange production in Florida has experienced a decline over the past decade. Hurricanes in 2004 and 2005 greatly affected production, almost to the same degree as strong freezes that occurred in the 1980's. The spread of the citrus greening disease after the hurricanes has also contributed to a reduction in orange production in Florida. The occurrence of hurricanes and diseases cannot easily be predicted but the additional effects of climate on orange yield can be studied and incorporated into existing production forecasts that are based on physical surveys, such as the October Citrus forecast issued every year by the USDA. Specific climate variables ocurring before and after the October forecast is issued can have impacts on flowering, orange drop rates, growth, and maturation, and can contribute to the forecast error. Here we present a methodology to incorporate local climate variables to predict the USDA's orange production forecast error, and we study the local effects of climate on yield in different counties in Florida. This information can aid farmers to gain an insight on what is to be expected during the orange production cycle, and can help supply chain managers to better plan their strategy.

  1. Medium-range fire weather forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.O. Roads; K. Ueyoshi; S.C. Chen; J. Alpert; F. Fujioka

    1991-01-01

    The forecast skill of theNational Meteorological Center's medium range forecast (MRF) numerical forecasts of fire weather variables is assessed for the period June 1,1988 to May 31,1990. Near-surface virtual temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and a derived fire weather index (FWI) are forecast well by the MRF model. However, forecast relative humidity has...

  2. Quadrennial Technology Review 2015: Technology Assessments--Marine and Hydrokinetic Power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sam Baldwin, Gilbert Bindewald, Austin Brown, Charles Chen, Kerry Cheung, Corrie Clark, Joe Cresko,

    2015-10-07

    Marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) technologies convert the energy of waves, tides, and river and ocean currents into electricity. With more than 50% of the U.S. population living within 50 miles of the nation’s coasts, MHK technologies hold significant potential to supply renewable electricity to consumers in coastal load centers, particularly in the near term in areas with high costs of electricity and longer term in high resource areas in close proximity to major coastal load centers. MHK resource assessments identify a total U.S. technical resource potential of approximately 1250–1850 terawatt-hours (TWh) of generation per year from ocean wave, ocean current, ocean tidal, and river current energy. Of this, the U.S. continental technical resource potential is approximately 500–750 TWh/year. For context, roughly 90,000 homes can be powered by 1 TWh of electricity generation each year. A cost-effective MHK industry could provide a substantial amount of electricity for the nation owing in large part to its unique advantages as a source of energy, including its vast resource potential, its close proximity to major coastal load centers, and its long-term predictability and near-term forecastability.

  3. Sustainability assessment of advanced wastewater treatment technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Høibye, Linda; Clauson-Kaas, Jes; Wenzel, Henrik

    2008-01-01

    As a consequence of the EU Water Framework Directive more focus is now on discharges of hazardous substances from wastewater treatment plants and sewers. Thus, many municipalities in Denmark may have to adopt to future advanced treatment technologies. This paper describes a holistic assessment......, which includes technical, economical and environmental aspects. The technical and economical assessment is performed on 5 advanced treatment technologies: sand filtration, ozone treatment, UV exclusively for disinfection of pathogenic microorganisms, membrane bioreactor (MBR) and UV in combination...... and three advanced treatment methods; sand filtration, ozone treatment and MBR. The technical and economic assessment showed that UV solely for disinfection purposes or ozone treatment is the most advantageous advanced treatment methods if the demands are restricted to pathogenic microorganisms. In terms...

  4. Sustainability assessment of advanced wastewater treatment technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Høibye, Linda; Clauson-Kaas, Jes; Wenzel, Henrik

    2007-01-01

    As a consequence of the EU Water Framwork Directive, more focus is now on discharges of hazardous substances from wastewater treatment plants and sewers. Thus, many municipalities in Denmark may have to adopt to future advenced treatment technologies. This paper describes a holistic assessment......, which includes technical, economic and environmental aspects. The technical and economic assessment is performed on 5 advanced treatment technologies: sand filtration, ozone treatment, UV exclusively for disinfection of pathogenic microorganisms, Membrane Bioreactor (MBR), and UV in combination...... and three advanced treatment methods: sand filtration, ozone treatment and MBR. The technical and economic assessment showed that UV solely for disinfection purposes or ozone treatment are the most advantageous advanved treatment methods if the demands are restricted to pathogenic microorganisms. In terms...

  5. An Assessment of Data from the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder at the Met Office

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amy Doherty

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available An appraisal of the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS for use in numerical weather prediction (NWP is presented, including an assessment of the data quality, the impact on Met Office global forecasts in preoperational trials, and a summary of performance over a period of 17 months operational use. After remapping, the noise performance (NEΔT of the tropospheric temperature sounding channels is evaluated to be approximately 0.1 K, comparing favourably with AMSU-A. However, the noise is not random, differences between observations and simulations based on short-range forecast fields show a spurious striping effect, due to 1/f noise in the receiver. The amplitude of this signal is several tenths of a Kelvin, potentially a concern for NWP applications. In preoperational tests, adding ATMS data to a full Met Office system already exploiting data from four microwave sounders improves southern hemisphere mean sea level pressure forecasts in the 2- to 5-day range by 1-2%. In operational use, where data from five other microwave sounders is assimilated, forecast impact is typically between −0.05 and −0.1 J/kg (3.4% of total mean impact per day over the period 1 April to 31 July 2013. This suggests benefits beyond redundancy, associated with reducing already small analysis errors.

  6. How accurate are forecasts of costs of energy? A methodological contribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siddons, Craig; Allan, Grant; McIntyre, Stuart

    2015-01-01

    Forecasts of the cost of energy are typically presented as point estimates; however forecasts are seldom accurate, which makes it important to understand the uncertainty around these point estimates. The scale of the differences between forecasts and outturns (i.e. contemporary estimates) of costs may have important implications for government decisions on the appropriate form (and level) of support, modelling energy scenarios or industry investment appraisal. This paper proposes a methodology to assess the accuracy of cost forecasts. We apply this to levelised costs of energy for different generation technologies due to the availability of comparable forecasts and contemporary estimates, however the same methodology could be applied to the components of levelised costs, such as capital costs. The estimated “forecast errors” capture the accuracy of previous forecasts and can provide objective bounds to the range around current forecasts for such costs. The results from applying this method are illustrated using publicly available data for on- and off-shore wind, Nuclear and CCGT technologies, revealing the possible scale of “forecast errors” for these technologies. - Highlights: • A methodology to assess the accuracy of forecasts of costs of energy is outlined. • Method applied to illustrative data for four electricity generation technologies. • Results give an objective basis for sensitivity analysis around point estimates.

  7. IMPROVEMEnTS In ASSESSInG THE FORECASTS ACCURACY - A CASE STUDY FOR ROMAnIAn MACROECOnOMIC FORECASTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihaela (Simionescu Bratu

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to introduce new forecasts’ accuracy measures for two types of predictions: point forecasts (radical of order n of the mean of squared errors, mean for the differencebetween each predicted value and the mean of the effective values, ratio of radicals of sum of squared errors (RRSSE- for forecasts comparisons, different versions of U2 Theil’s statistic and forforecast intervals (number of intervals including the realization, difference between the realization and the lower limit, the upper one, respectively the interval centre. Comparisons are made to presentthe differences in results determined by the application of the classical measures of predictions accuracy for the inflation and unemployment rate forecasts provided for Romania by Institute forEconomic Forecasting (IEF and National Commission of Prognosis (NCP on the horizon 2010- 2012 and the values of new point forecasts accuracy measures. The hierarchy of predictions provided by the classical indicators and by the new ones are different. A novelty in literature is also brought by the methods of building the forecasts intervals. In addition to the classical interval basedon historical error method, some new techniques of building forecasts are used: intervals based on the standard deviation and those constructed using bootstrap technique bias-corrected-accelerated(BCA bootstrap method.

  8. Fuel cycle forecasting - there are forecasts and there are forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Puechl, K.H.

    1975-01-01

    The FORECAST-NUCLEAR computer program described recognizes that forecasts are made to answer a variety of questions and, therefore, that no single forecast is universally appropriate. Also, it recognizes that no two individuals will completely agree as to the input data that are appropriate for obtaining an answer to even a single simple question. Accordingly, the program was written from a utilitarian standpoint: it allows working with multiple projections; data inputting is simple to allow game-playing; computation time is short to minimize the cost of 'what if' assessements; and detail is internally carried to allow meaningful analysis. (author)

  9. Using forecast and observed weather data to assess performance of forecast products in identifying heat waves and estimating heat wave effects on mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Kai; Chen, Yeh-Hsin; Schwartz, Joel D; Rood, Richard B; O'Neill, Marie S

    2014-09-01

    Heat wave and health warning systems are activated based on forecasts of health-threatening hot weather. We estimated heat-mortality associations based on forecast and observed weather data in Detroit, Michigan, and compared the accuracy of forecast products for predicting heat waves. We derived and compared apparent temperature (AT) and heat wave days (with heat waves defined as ≥ 2 days of daily mean AT ≥ 95th percentile of warm-season average) from weather observations and six different forecast products. We used Poisson regression with and without adjustment for ozone and/or PM10 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 10 μm) to estimate and compare associations of daily all-cause mortality with observed and predicted AT and heat wave days. The 1-day-ahead forecast of a local operational product, Revised Digital Forecast, had about half the number of false positives compared with all other forecasts. On average, controlling for heat waves, days with observed AT = 25.3°C were associated with 3.5% higher mortality (95% CI: -1.6, 8.8%) than days with AT = 8.5°C. Observed heat wave days were associated with 6.2% higher mortality (95% CI: -0.4, 13.2%) than non-heat wave days. The accuracy of predictions varied, but associations between mortality and forecast heat generally tended to overestimate heat effects, whereas associations with forecast heat waves tended to underestimate heat wave effects, relative to associations based on observed weather metrics. Our findings suggest that incorporating knowledge of local conditions may improve the accuracy of predictions used to activate heat wave and health warning systems.

  10. Initial assessment of a multi-model approach to spring flood forecasting in Sweden

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsson, J.; Uvo, C. B.; Foster, K.; Yang, W.

    2015-06-01

    Hydropower is a major energy source in Sweden and proper reservoir management prior to the spring flood onset is crucial for optimal production. This requires useful forecasts of the accumulated discharge in the spring flood period (i.e. the spring-flood volume, SFV). Today's SFV forecasts are generated using a model-based climatological ensemble approach, where time series of precipitation and temperature from historical years are used to force a calibrated and initialised set-up of the HBV model. In this study, a number of new approaches to spring flood forecasting, that reflect the latest developments with respect to analysis and modelling on seasonal time scales, are presented and evaluated. Three main approaches, represented by specific methods, are evaluated in SFV hindcasts for three main Swedish rivers over a 10-year period with lead times between 0 and 4 months. In the first approach, historically analogue years with respect to the climate in the period preceding the spring flood are identified and used to compose a reduced ensemble. In the second, seasonal meteorological ensemble forecasts are used to drive the HBV model over the spring flood period. In the third approach, statistical relationships between SFV and the large-sale atmospheric circulation are used to build forecast models. None of the new approaches consistently outperform the climatological ensemble approach, but for specific locations and lead times improvements of 20-30 % are found. When combining all forecasts in a weighted multi-model approach, a mean improvement over all locations and lead times of nearly 10 % was indicated. This demonstrates the potential of the approach and further development and optimisation into an operational system is ongoing.

  11. Operational skill assessment of the IBI-MFC Ocean Forecasting System within the frame of the CMEMS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorente Jimenez, Pablo; Garcia-Sotillo, Marcos; Amo-Balandron, Arancha; Aznar Lecocq, Roland; Perez Gomez, Begoña; Levier, Bruno; Alvarez-Fanjul, Enrique

    2016-04-01

    Since operational ocean forecasting systems (OOFSs) are increasingly used as tools to support high-stakes decision-making for coastal management, a rigorous skill assessment of model performance becomes essential. In this context, the IBI-MFC (Iberia-Biscay-Ireland Monitoring & Forecasting Centre) has been providing daily ocean model estimates and forecasts for the IBI regional seas since 2011, first in the frame of MyOcean projects and later as part of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS). A comprehensive web validation tool named NARVAL (North Atlantic Regional VALidation) has been developed to routinely monitor IBI performance and to evaluate model's veracity and prognostic capabilities. Three-dimensional comparisons are carried out on a different time basis ('online mode' - daily verifications - and 'delayed mode' - for longer time periods -) using a broad variety of in-situ (buoys, tide-gauges, ARGO-floats, drifters and gliders) and remote-sensing (satellite and HF radars) observational sources as reference fields to validate against the NEMO model solution. Product quality indicators and meaningful skill metrics are automatically computed not only averaged over the entire IBI domain but also over specific sub-regions of particular interest from a user perspective (i.e. coastal or shelf areas) in order to determine IBI spatial and temporal uncertainty levels. A complementary aspect of NARVAL web tool is the intercomparison of different CMEMS forecast model solutions in overlapping areas. Noticeable efforts are in progress in order to quantitatively assess the quality and consistency of nested system outputs by setting up specific intercomparison exercises on different temporal and spatial scales, encompassing global configurations (CMEMS Global system), regional applications (NWS and MED ones) and local high-resolution coastal models (i.e. the PdE SAMPA system in the Gibraltar Strait). NARVAL constitutes a powerful approach to increase

  12. Technology Audit: Assessment of Innovative Portfolio

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kurushina Viktoria

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses the features of the technological audit performing in the companies of oil and gas sector of Russian economy. To measure the innovations quality level the scale was developed based on the Theory of Inventive Problem Solving and the theory of technological structures. Figures of the innovations quantity by levels, volume and quality of the innovative portfolio are offered for assessment the innovative portfolio quality. The method was tested on an example of oil and gas transporting enterprises. The results of the comparative analysis of innovative portfolio are shown.

  13. Assessing the value of post-processed state-of-the-art long-term weather forecast ensembles for agricultural water management mediated by farmers' behaviours

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yu; Giuliani, Matteo; Castelletti, Andrea

    2016-04-01

    Recent advances in modelling of coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics significantly improved skills of long-term climate forecast from global circulation models (GCMs). These more accurate weather predictions are supposed to be a valuable support to farmers in optimizing farming operations (e.g. crop choice, cropping and watering time) and for more effectively coping with the adverse impacts of climate variability. Yet, assessing how actually valuable this information can be to a farmer is not straightforward and farmers' response must be taken into consideration. Indeed, in the context of agricultural systems potentially useful forecast information should alter stakeholders' expectation, modify their decisions, and ultimately produce an impact on their performance. Nevertheless, long-term forecast are mostly evaluated in terms of accuracy (i.e., forecast quality) by comparing hindcast and observed values and only few studies investigated the operational value of forecast looking at the gain of utility within the decision-making context, e.g. by considering the derivative of forecast information, such as simulated crop yields or simulated soil moisture, which are essential to farmers' decision-making process. In this study, we contribute a step further in the assessment of the operational value of long-term weather forecasts products by embedding these latter into farmers' behavioral models. This allows a more critical assessment of the forecast value mediated by the end-users' perspective, including farmers' risk attitudes and behavioral patterns. Specifically, we evaluate the operational value of thirteen state-of-the-art long-range forecast products against climatology forecast and empirical prediction (i.e. past year climate and historical average) within an integrated agronomic modeling framework embedding an implicit model of the farmers' decision-making process. Raw ensemble datasets are bias-corrected and downscaled using a stochastic weather generator, in

  14. Technology enhanced peer learning and peer assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, Christian Bugge; Bregnhøj, Henrik; Rosthøj, Susanne

    2016-01-01

    This paper explores the application of learning designs featuring formalised and structured technology enhanced peer learning. These include student produced learning elements, peer review discussions and peer assessment in the BSc/MSc level summer course Restoration of European Ecosystems...... and Freshwaters (REEF), the Master thesis preparation seminars for the Master of Public Health (MPH) and the MOOC course Global Environmental Management (GEM). The application of student produced learning elements and peer review discussions is investigated by analyzing quotes from course evaluations...... and performing focus group interviews. The application of peer assessment is investigated by analyzing the agreement of peer assessment between students assessing the same assignment. Our analyses confirm previous research on the value of peer learning and peer assessment and we argue that there could also...

  15. An Integrated Risk Approach for Assessing the Use of Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts in Hydroelectric Reservoir Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowry, T. S.; Wigmosta, M.; Barco, J.; Voisin, N.; Bier, A.; Coleman, A.; Skaggs, R.

    2012-12-01

    This paper presents an integrated risk approach using ensemble streamflow forecasts for optimizing hydro-electric power generation. Uncertainty in the streamflow forecasts are translated into integrated risk by calculating the deviation of an optimized release schedule that simultaneously maximizes power generation and environmental performance from release schedules that maximize the two objectives individually. The deviations from each target are multiplied by the probability of occurrence and then summed across all probabilities to get the integrated risk. The integrated risk is used to determine which operational scheme exposes the operator to the least amount of risk or conversely, what are the consequences of basing future operations on a particular prediction. Decisions can be made with regards to the tradeoff between power generation, environmental performance, and exposure to risk. The Hydropower Seasonal Concurrent Optimization for Power and Environment (HydroSCOPE) model developed at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) is used to model the flow, temperature, and power generation and is coupled with the DAKOTA (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) optimization package to identify the maximum potential power generation, the maximum environmental performance, and the optimal operational scheme that maximizes both for each instance of the ensemble forecasts. The ensemble forecasts were developed in a collaborative effort between the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and the University of Washington to develop an Enhanced Hydrologic Forecasting System (EHFS) that incorporates advanced ensemble forecasting approaches and algorithms, spatiotemporal datasets, and automated data acquisition and processing. Both the HydroSCOPE model and the EHFS forecast tool are being developed as part of a larger, multi-laboratory water-use optimization project funded through the US Department of Energy. The simulations were based on the

  16. Application of Neural Network Technologies for Price Forecasting in the Liberalized Electricity Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerikh, Valentin; Kolosok, Irina; Kurbatsky, Victor; Tomin, Nikita

    2009-01-01

    The paper presents the results of experimental studies concerning calculation of electricity prices in different price zones in Russia and Europe. The calculations are based on the intelligent software "ANAPRO" that implements the approaches based on the modern methods of data analysis and artificial intelligence technologies.

  17. Landslides in Nicaragua - Mapping, Inventory, Hazard Assessment, Vulnerability Reduction, and Forecasting Attempts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dévoli, G.; Strauch, W.; Álvarez, A.; Muñoz, A.; Kjekstad, O.

    2009-04-01

    A successful landslide hazard and risk assessment requires awareness and good understanding of the potential landslide problems within the geographic area involved. However, this requirement is not always met in developing countries where population, scientific community, and the government may not be aware of the landslide threat. The landslide hazard assessment is often neglected or is based on sparse and not well documented technical information. In Nicaragua (Central America), the basic conditions for landslide hazard and risk assessment were first created after the catastrophic landslides triggered by Hurricane Mitch in October 1998. A single landslide took the life of thousands of people at Casita volcano forcing entire communities to be evacuated or relocated and, furthermore, thousands of smaller landslides caused loss of fertile soils and pasture lands, and made serious damages to the infrastructure. Since those events occurred, the public awareness has increased and the country relies now on new local and national governmental laws and policies, on a number of landslide investigations, and on educational and training programs. Dozens of geologists have been capacitated to investigate landslide prone areas, The Instituto Nicaragüense de Estudios Territoriales (INETER), governmental geo-scientific institution, has assumed the responsibility to help land-use planners and public officials to reduce geological hazard losses. They are committed to work cooperatively with national, international, and local agencies, universities and the private sector to provide scientific information and improve public safety through forecasting and warnings. However, in order to provide successful long-term landslide hazard assessment, the institutions must face challenges related to the scarcity and varied quality of available landslide information; collection and access to dispersed data and documents; organization of landslide information in a form that can be easy to

  18. Assessment of a conceptual hydrological model and artificial neural networks for daily outflows forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rezaeianzadeh, M.; Stein, A.; Tabari, H.; Abghari, H.; Jalalkamali, N.; Hosseinipour, E.Z.; Singh, V.P.

    2013-01-01

    Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are used by hydrologists and engineers to forecast flows at the outlet of a watershed. They are employed in particular where hydrological data are limited. Despite these developments, practitioners still prefer conventional hydrological models. This study applied

  19. Current and Potential Use of Technology Forecasting Tools in the Federal Government

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-01

    emerging technologies, cost factors, and economic and policy implications. The manual process relies on literature reviews by librarians and...discussed in more detail as a case study in Appendix D. In the Healthcare Horizon Scanning System, medical librarians scan publicly available sources such...collaborations between academic and industrial scientists are highlighted could be used to help analysts identify researchers and innovations to track. 3

  20. Natural-technological risk assessment and management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burova, Valentina; Frolova, Nina

    2016-04-01

    EM-DAT statistical data on human impact and economic damages in the 1st semester 2015 are the highest since 2011: 41% of disasters were floods, responsible for 39% of economic damage and 7% of events were earthquakes responsible for 59% of total death toll. This suggests that disaster risk assessment and management still need to be improved and stay the principle issue in national and international related programs. The paper investigates the risk assessment and management practice in the Russian Federation at different levels. The method is proposed to identify the territories characterized by integrated natural-technological hazard. The maps of the Russian Federation zoning according to the integrated natural-technological hazard level are presented, as well as the procedure of updating the integrated hazard level taking into account the activity of separate processes. Special attention is paid to data bases on past natural and technological processes consequences, which are used for verification of current hazard estimation. The examples of natural-technological risk zoning for the country and some regions territory are presented. Different output risk indexes: both social and economic, are estimated taking into account requirements of end-users. In order to increase the safety of population of the Russian Federation the trans-boundaries hazards are also taken into account.

  1. Life cycle assessment of forecasting scenarios for urban water management: A first implementation of the WaLA model on Paris suburban area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loubet, Philippe; Roux, Philippe; Guérin-Schneider, Laetitia; Bellon-Maurel, Véronique

    2016-03-01

    A framework and an associated modeling tool to perform life cycle assessment (LCA) of urban water system, namely the WaLA model, has been recently developed. In this paper, the WaLA model is applied to a real case study: the urban water system of the Paris suburban area, in France. It aims to verify the capacity of the model to provide environmental insights to stakeholder's issues related to future trends influencing the system (e.g., evolution of water demand, increasing water scarcity) or policy responses (e.g., choices of water resources and technologies). This is achieved by evaluating a baseline scenario for 2012 and several forecasting scenarios for 2022 and 2050. The scenarios are designed through the modeling tool WaLA, which is implemented in Simulink/Matlab: it combines components representing the different technologies, users and resources of the UWS. The life cycle inventories of the technologies and users components include water quantity and quality changes, specific operation (electricity, chemicals) and infrastructures data (construction materials). The methods selected for the LCIA are midpoint ILCD, midpoint water deprivation impacts at the sub-river basin scale, and endpoint Impact 2002+. The results of the baseline scenario show that wastewater treatment plants have the highest impacts compared to drinking water production and distribution, as traditionally encountered in LCA of UWS. The results of the forecasting scenarios show important changes in water deprivation impacts due to water management choices or effects of climate change. They also enable to identify tradeoffs with other impact categories and to compare several scenarios. It suggests the capacity of the model to deliver information for decision making about future policies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Real-Time Assessment of the 16 September 2015 Chile Tsunami and Implications for Near-Field Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Liujuan; Titov, Vasily V.; Moore, Christopher; Wei, Yong

    2016-02-01

    The magnitude 8.3 earthquake in central Chile on 16 September 2015 and the resulting tsunami severely affected the region, with 15 deaths ( Onemi in Monitoreo por sismo de mayor intensidad. (In Spanish) [Available at: http://www.onemi.cl/alerta/se-declara-alerta-roja-por-sismo-de-mayor-intensidad-y-alarma-de-tsunami/], 2015), over one million evacuated, and flooding in nearby coastal cities. We present our real-time assessment of the 2015 Chile tsunami using the Short-term Inundation Forecasting for Tsunamis system, and post-event analyses with local community models in Chile. We evaluate three real-time tsunami sources, which were inverted at the time that the first quarter-, half-, and full-wave passed the first tsunameter (DART 32402, located approximately 580 km north-northwest of the epicenter), respectively. Measurement comparisons from 26 deep-ocean tsunameters and 38 coastal tide stations show that good model accuracies are achieved for all three sources, particularly for the local sites that recorded the most destructive waves. The study highlights the forecast speed, time and accuracy dependence, and their implications for the local forecast capability. Our analyses suggest that the tsunami's main origination area is about 100-200 km long and 100 km wide, to the north of the earthquake epicenter along the trench and the total estimated tsunami wave energy is 7.9 × 1013 J (with 13 % uncertainty). The study provides important guidelines for the earliest reliable estimate of tsunami energy and local forecasts. They can be obtained with the first quarter-wave of tsunameter recording. These results are also confirmed by a forecast analysis of the 2011 Japan tsunami. Furthermore, we find that the first half-wave tsunameter data are sufficient to accurately forecast the 2015 Chile tsunami, due to the specific orientation between the nearest tsunameter and the source. The study also suggests expanding the operational use of the local community models in real

  3. Technology enhanced peer learning and peer assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, Christian Bugge; Bregnhøj, Henrik; Rosthøj, Susanne

    2016-01-01

    This paper explores the application of learning designs featuring formalised and structured technology enhanced peer learning. These include student produced learning elements, peer review discussions and peer assessment in the BSc/MSc level summer course Restoration of European Ecosystems...... and Freshwaters (REEF), the Master thesis preparation seminars for the Master of Public Health (MPH) and the MOOC course Global Environmental Management (GEM). The application of student produced learning elements and peer review discussions is investigated by analyzing quotes from course evaluations...

  4. The Main Pillar: Assessment of Space Weather Observational Asset Performance Supporting Nowcasting, Forecasting and Research to Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Posner, Arik; Hesse, Michael; SaintCyr, Chris

    2014-01-01

    Space weather forecasting critically depends upon availability of timely and reliable observational data. It is therefore particularly important to understand how existing and newly planned observational assets perform during periods of severe space weather. Extreme space weather creates challenging conditions under which instrumentation and spacecraft may be impeded or in which parameters reach values that are outside the nominal observational range. This paper analyzes existing and upcoming observational capabilities for forecasting, and discusses how the findings may impact space weather research and its transition to operations. A single limitation to the assessment is lack of information provided to us on radiation monitor performance, which caused us not to fully assess (i.e., not assess short term) radiation storm forecasting. The assessment finds that at least two widely spaced coronagraphs including L4 would provide reliability for Earth-bound CMEs. Furthermore, all magnetic field measurements assessed fully meet requirements. However, with current or even with near term new assets in place, in the worst-case scenario there could be a near-complete lack of key near-real-time solar wind plasma data of severe disturbances heading toward and impacting Earth's magnetosphere. Models that attempt to simulate the effects of these disturbances in near real time or with archival data require solar wind plasma observations as input. Moreover, the study finds that near-future observational assets will be less capable of advancing the understanding of extreme geomagnetic disturbances at Earth, which might make the resulting space weather models unsuitable for transition to operations.

  5. Application of numerical weather prediction in wind power forecasting: Assessment of the diurnal cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tobias Heppelmann

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available For a secure integration of weather dependent renewable energies in Germany's mixed power supply, precise forecasts of expected wind power are indispensable. These in turn are heavily dependent on numerical weather prediction (NWP. With this relevant area of application, NWP models need to be evaluated concerning new variables such as wind speed at hub heights of wind power plants. This article presents verification results of the deterministic NWP forecasts of the global ICON model, its ICON-EU nest, the COSMO-EU, and the COSMO-DE as well as of the ensemble prediction system COSMO-DE-EPS of the German National Weather Service (DWD, against wind mast observations. The focus is on the diurnal cycle in the Planetary Boundary Layer as wind power forecasts for Germany exhibit pronounced systematic amplitude and phase errors in the morning and evening hours. NWP forecasts with lead times up to 48 hours are examined. All considered NWP models reveal shortcomings concerning the representation of the diurnal cycle. Especially in summertime at onshore locations, when Low-Level Jets form, nocturnal wind speeds at hub height are underestimated. In the COSMO model, stable conditions are not sufficiently reflected in the first part of the night and the vertical mixing after sunrise establishes too late. The verification results of the COSMO-DE-EPS confirm the deficiencies of the deterministic forecasts. The deficiencies are present in all ensemble members and thus indicate potential for improvement not only in the model physics parameterization but also concerning the physical ensemble perturbations.

  6. Assessment of a new seasonal to inter-annual operational Great Lakes water supply, water levels, and connecting channel flow forecasting system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gronewold, A.; Fry, L. M.; Hunter, T.; Pei, L.; Smith, J.; Lucier, H.; Mueller, R.

    2017-12-01

    The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) has recently operationalized a suite of ensemble forecasts of Net Basin Supply (NBS), water levels, and connecting channel flows that was developed through a collaboration among USACE, NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ontario Power Generation (OPG), New York Power Authority (NYPA), and the Niagara River Control Center (NRCC). These forecasts are meant to provide reliable projections of potential extremes in daily discharge in the Niagara and St. Lawrence Rivers over a long time horizon (5 years). The suite of forecasts includes eight configurations that vary by (a) NBS model configuration, (b) meteorological forcings, and (c) incorporation of seasonal climate projections through the use of weighting. Forecasts are updated on a weekly basis, and represent the first operational forecasts of Great Lakes water levels and flows that span daily to inter-annual horizons and employ realistic regulation logic and lake-to-lake routing. We will present results from a hindcast assessment conducted during the transition from research to operation, as well as early indications of success rates determined through operational verification of forecasts. Assessment will include an exploration of the relative skill of various forecast configurations at different time horizons and the potential for application to hydropower decision making and Great Lakes water management.

  7. Tiger Team Assessment, Energy Technology Engineering Center

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-04-01

    The Office Special Projects within the Office of Environment, Safety, and Health (EH) has the responsibility to conduct Tiger Team Assessments for the Secretary of Energy. This report presents the assessment of the buildings, facilities, and activities under the DOE/Rockwell Contract No. DE-AM03-76SF00700 for the Energy Technology Engineering Center (ETEC) and of other DOE-owned buildings and facilities at the Santa Susana Field Laboratory (SSFL) site in southeastern Ventura County, California, not covered under Contract No. DE-AM03-76SF00700, but constructed over the years under various other contracts between DOE and Rockwell International. ETEC is an engineering development complex operated for DOE by the Rocketdyne Division of Rockwell International Corporation. ETEC is located within SSFL on land owned by Rockwell. The balance of the SSFL complex is owned and operated by Rocketdyne, with the exception of a 42-acre parcel owned by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The primary mission of ETEC is to provide engineering, testing, and development of components related to liquid metals technology and to conduct applied engineering development of emerging energy technologies

  8. Tiger Team Assessment, Energy Technology Engineering Center

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-04-01

    The Office Special Projects within the Office of Environment, Safety, and Health (EH) has the responsibility to conduct Tiger Team Assessments for the Secretary of Energy. This report presents the assessment of the buildings, facilities, and activities under the DOE/Rockwell Contract No. DE-AM03-76SF00700 for the Energy Technology Engineering Center (ETEC) and of other DOE-owned buildings and facilities at the Santa Susana Field Laboratory (SSFL) site in southeastern Ventura County, California, not covered under Contract No. DE-AM03-76SF00700, but constructed over the years under various other contracts between DOE and Rockwell International. ETEC is an engineering development complex operated for DOE by the Rocketdyne Division of Rockwell International Corporation. ETEC is located within SSFL on land owned by Rockwell. The balance of the SSFL complex is owned and operated by Rocketdyne, with the exception of a 42-acre parcel owned by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The primary mission of ETEC is to provide engineering, testing, and development of components related to liquid metals technology and to conduct applied engineering development of emerging energy technologies.

  9. Constructive Technology Assessment for HIT development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Høstgaard, Anna Marie Balling; Bertelsen, Pernille; Petersen, Lone Stub

    2013-01-01

    Experience and time has shown a need for new evaluation methods for evaluating Health Information Technology (HIT), as summative evaluation methods fail to accommodate the rapid and constant changes in HIT over time and to involve end-users, which has been recognized as an important success facto...... during all the phases in the process. Thereby anumber of problems were prevented to occur later on.Thus, the CTA method and its framework are useful for evaluators and project-management in order to facilitate and support successful HIT development.......Experience and time has shown a need for new evaluation methods for evaluating Health Information Technology (HIT), as summative evaluation methods fail to accommodate the rapid and constant changes in HIT over time and to involve end-users, which has been recognized as an important success factor...... in HIT development. A new evaluation methodology, including an analytical framework, has been developed specifically for HIT development: Constructive Technology Assessment (CTA) for HIT. It offers solutions to both the problems associated with summative technology evaluation and a way to involve end...

  10. Assessment of the weather research and forecasting model generalized parameterization schemes for advancement of precipitation forecasting in monsoon-driven river basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sikder, Safat; Hossain, Faisal

    2016-09-01

    Some of the world's largest and flood-prone river basins experience a seasonal flood regime driven by the monsoon weather system. Highly populated river basins with extensive rain-fed agricultural productivity such as the Ganges, Indus, Brahmaputra, Irrawaddy, and Mekong are examples of monsoon-driven river basins. It is therefore appropriate to investigate how precipitation forecasts from numerical models can advance flood forecasting in these basins. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting model was used to evaluate downscaling of coarse-resolution global precipitation forecasts from a numerical weather prediction model. Sensitivity studies were conducted using the TOPSIS analysis to identify the likely best set of microphysics and cumulus parameterization schemes, and spatial resolution from a total set of 15 combinations. This identified best set can pinpoint specific parameterizations needing further development to advance flood forecasting in monsoon-dominated regimes. It was found that the Betts-Miller-Janjic cumulus parameterization scheme with WRF Single-Moment 5-class, WRF Single-Moment 6-class, and Thompson microphysics schemes exhibited the most skill in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna basins. Finer spatial resolution (3 km) without cumulus parameterization schemes did not yield significant improvements. The short-listed set of the likely best microphysics-cumulus parameterization configurations was found to also hold true for the Indus basin. The lesson learned from this study is that a common set of model parameterization and spatial resolution exists for monsoon-driven seasonal flood regimes at least in South Asian river basins.

  11. Forecasting the Marine Corps Enlisted Classification Plan Assessment of An Alternative Model

    OpenAIRE

    Hovey, Erik P.

    2012-01-01

    In a given fiscal year, the United States Marine Corps accesses approximately 30,000 enlisted personnel into its ranks. This labor supply of recruits is classified into various Military Occupational Specialties (MOSs) according to the forecasted requirement for new personnel into a particular MOS. The Classification Plan is the primary initial training input into the Training Input Plan, which allocates all training resources for Training and Education Command. The current Classification Mode...

  12. Modeling Extra-Long Tsunami Propagation: Assessing Data, Model Accuracy and Forecast Implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Titov, V. V.; Moore, C. W.; Rabinovich, A.

    2017-12-01

    Detecting and modeling tsunamis propagating tens of thousands of kilometers from the source is a formidable scientific challenge and seemingly satisfies only scientific curiosity. However, results of such analyses produce a valuable insight into the tsunami propagation dynamics, model accuracy and would provide important implications for tsunami forecast. The Mw = 9.3 megathrust earthquake of December 26, 2004 off the coast of Sumatra generated a tsunami that devastated Indian Ocean coastlines and spread into the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. The tsunami was recorded by a great number of coastal tide gauges, including those located in 15-25 thousand kilometers from the source area. To date, it is still the farthest instrumentally detected tsunami. The data from these instruments throughout the world oceans enabled to estimate various statistical parameters and energy decay of this event. High-resolution records of this tsunami from DARTs 32401 (offshore of northern Chile), 46405 and NeMO (both offshore of the US West Coast), combined with the mainland tide gauge measurements enabled us to examine far-field characteristics of the 2004 in the Pacific Ocean and to compare the results of global numerical simulations with the observations. Despite their small heights (less than 2 cm at deep-ocean locations), the records demonstrated consistent spatial and temporal structure. The numerical model described well the frequency content, amplitudes and general structure of the observed waves at deep-ocean and coastal gages. We present analysis of the measurements and comparison with model data to discuss implication for tsunami forecast accuracy. Model study for such extreme distances from the tsunami source and at extra-long times after the event is an attempt to find accuracy bounds for tsunami models and accuracy limitations of model use for forecast. We discuss results in application to tsunami model forecast and tsunami modeling in general.

  13. Assessment of the importance of the current-wave coupling in the shelf ocean forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Jordà

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available The effects of wave-current interactions on shelf ocean forecasts is investigated in the framework of the MFSTEP (Mediterranean Forecasting System Project Towards Enviromental Predictions project. A one way sequential coupling approach is adopted to link the wave model (WAM to the circulation model (SYMPHONIE. The coupling of waves and currents has been done considering four main processes: wave refraction due to currents, surface wind drag and bottom drag modifications due to waves, and the wave induced mass flux. The coupled modelling system is implemented in the southern Catalan shelf (NW Mediterranean, a region with characteristics similar to most of the Mediterranean shelves. The sensitivity experiments are run in a typical operational configuration. The wave refraction by currents seems to be not very relevant in a microtidal context such as the western Mediterranean. The main effect of waves on current forecasts is through the modification of the wind drag. The Stokes drift also plays a significant role due to its spatial and temporal characteristics. Finally, the enhanced bottom friction is just noticeable in the inner shelf.

  14. Thai health technology assessment guideline development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teerawattananon, Yot; Chaikledkaew, Usa

    2008-06-01

    Health Technology Assessment (HTA) is a comprehensive form of policy research that provides information on the consequences of the application of health technology. It is used primarily to guide health care resource allocation decisions. In Thailand, there is increasing impetus to use HTA information to allow more explicit and transparent health care priority setting. A previous study indicated that serious attention needed to be given to the quality of reporting and the use of information in the analyses. These problems could be reduced by setting up standard guidelines for conducting HTA to stimulate the provision of standardized, reliable and good quality information for policy makers. Nevertheless, Thailand has not yet set up such guidelines. This may lead to low quality evaluations. Therefore, the objective of this article was to describe the rationale for guideline development, supporting principles, guideline development process, sources of information, and future challenges for HTA.

  15. FORECASTING LIQUIDITY IN TRADITIONAL AND TECHNOLOGY-BASED SECTORS – THE CASE OF POLAND

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monika Bolek

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This article presents the role of local governments in supporting entrepreneurship development. The content of the article presents the factors which foster activities undertaken by local authorities to promote entrepreneurship and also shows different considerations of when the supporting instruments are in use. The article is also an assessment of current activities of local governments in the sphere of supporting business initiatives. It indicates potential of possible changes in local policy on supporting entrepreneurship. The article sets out areas of possible improvements in policy when stimulating economic activity by local authorities. It addresses the improvements of the objective restrictions which are laid out by the existing legal framework.

  16. Health technology assessment in the United Kingdom.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woolf, S H; Henshall, C

    2000-01-01

    The National Health Service (NHS) provides universal health coverage for all British citizens. Most services are free of charge, although modest copayments are sometimes applied. About 11% of the population also has private insurance. General practitioners, generally the first point of contact for accessing the system, are independent contractors who serve as gatekeepers for specialist and hospital services and enjoy substantial clinical autonomy. Hospitals are public and are regionalized, but the 1990 reforms made them self-governing trusts that contract with local purchasers (health authorities and general practitioner fundholders). Reforms beginning in 1990 moved the NHS away from a centralized administrative structure to more pluralistic arrangements in which competition, as well as management, influences how services develop. Health technology and health technology assessment (HTA) have gained increasing attention in the NHS during this period, as part of a wider NHS Research and Development (R&D) Strategy. The strategy promotes a knowledge-based health service with a strong research infrastructure and the capacity to critically review its own needs. HTA is the largest and most developed of the programs within the strategy. It has a formal system for setting assessment priorities involving widespread consultation within the NHS, and a National Co-ordinating Centre for Health Technology Assessment. The strategy supports related centers such as the U.K. Cochrane Centre and the NHS Centre for Reviews and Dissemination. A hallmark of the HTA program is strong public participation. The United Kingdom has made a major commitment to HTA and to seeking effective means of reviewing and disseminating evidence.

  17. Forecasting Skill

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-01-01

    indicated that forecasting experience has little relationship to forecasting performance. In the latter three studies, neophyte forecasters became... Europe . Within a few months after a new commander was assigned, this unit’s performance rose to first place in the theater and remained there

  18. Technology Assessment Need: Review on Attractiveness and Competitiveness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salwa Sait, Siti; Merlinda Muharam, Farrah; Chin, Thoo Ai; Sulaiman, Zuraidah

    2017-06-01

    Technology assessment is crucial in managing technology for the purpose of technology exploitation. With business environment continuously changing, firms have to address this issue critically as technology is considered one of the important elements to evaluate performance and gain competitive advantage. Missteps in deciding the best technology to be developed, employed or maintained would cost the firm overall value. To fulfil the need of finding the appropriate scale to assess suitable technology, this paper summarizes that technology assessment (TA) should cover two main aspects, namely technology attractiveness and competitiveness. These components are seen capable to link the scale suggested towards evaluation of financial and non-financial performance towards competitive advantage.

  19. Verification of cloud cover forecast with INSAT observation over ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Forecast verification serves many important purposes. These purposes include assessing the state-of-the-art forecasting and recent trends in forecast quality, improving forecasting procedures and ultimately the forecast themselves, and providing users with information needed to make effective use of the forecasts. Table 2.

  20. [Hospital-based Health Technology Assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zavadil, Martin; Rogalewicz, Vladimír; Kubátová, Ivana; Matloňová, Veronika; Salačová, Kristýna

    Hospital-based HTA (HB-HTA) consists in implementation of assessment activities "in" or "for" hospitals; hence, it covers processes and methods supporting organization and execution of health technology assessment (HTA) at the level of individual hospitals. This process is multidisciplinary, systematic and evidence-based.HB-HTA objectives and methods differ from the classic utilization of HTA at the national regulator level. Most experience and information concerning HB-HTA has originated in two large recent projects: activities of the HB-HTA Interest Group of the HTAi international association established in 2006, and the AdHopHTA European research project (20122015).This paper describes four basic organizational models of HB-HTA, their characteristics and utilization in various countries and hospital types. Results of the AdHopHTA project are analyzed, and recommendations for HB-HTA implementation in Czech hospitals are formulated.Key words: hospital-based HTA, medical device, implementation, hospital strategy.

  1. Recent developments and assessment of a three-dimensional PBL parameterization for improved wind forecasting over complex terrain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosovic, B.; Jimenez, P. A.; Haupt, S. E.; Martilli, A.; Olson, J.; Bao, J. W.

    2017-12-01

    At present, the planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations available in most numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are one-dimensional. One-dimensional parameterizations are based on the assumption of horizontal homogeneity. This homogeneity assumption is appropriate for grid cell sizes greater than 10 km. However, for mesoscale simulations of flows in complex terrain with grid cell sizes below 1 km, the assumption of horizontal homogeneity is violated. Applying a one-dimensional PBL parameterization to high-resolution mesoscale simulations in complex terrain could result in significant error. For high-resolution mesoscale simulations of flows in complex terrain, we have therefore developed and implemented a three-dimensional (3D) PBL parameterization in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The implementation of the 3D PBL scheme is based on the developments outlined by Mellor and Yamada (1974, 1982). Our implementation in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model uses a pure algebraic model (level 2) to diagnose the turbulent fluxes. To evaluate the performance of the 3D PBL model, we use observations from the Wind Forecast Improvement Project 2 (WFIP2). The WFIP2 field study took place in the Columbia River Gorge area from 2015-2017. We focus on selected cases when physical phenomena of significance for wind energy applications such as mountain waves, topographic wakes, and gap flows were observed. Our assessment of the 3D PBL parameterization also considers a large-eddy simulation (LES). We carried out a nested LES with grid cell sizes of 30 m and 10 m covering a large fraction of the WFIP2 study area. Both LES domains were discretized using 6000 x 3000 x 200 grid cells in zonal, meridional, and vertical direction, respectively. The LES results are used to assess the relative magnitude of horizontal gradients of turbulent stresses and fluxes in comparison to vertical gradients. The presentation will highlight the advantages of the 3

  2. Technology needs assessment for DOE environmental restoration programs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duray, J.R.; Carlson, T.J.; Carpenter, C.E.; Cummins, L.E.; Daub, G.J.

    1992-01-01

    The 'Technology Needs Assessment Final Report' describes current and planned environmental restoration activity, identifies technologies intended to be used or under consideration, and ranks technology deficiencies in the U.S. Department of Energy's environmental restoration program. Included in the ranking are treatment technologies, characterization technologies, and non-technology issues that affect environmental restoration. Data used for the assessment was gathered during interviews in the spring of 1991 with DOE site personnel responsible for the environmental restoration work. (author)

  3. Integrated assessment of bioelectricity technology options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thornley, Patricia; Upham, Paul; Huang, Ye; Rezvani, Sina; Brammer, John; Rogers, John

    2009-01-01

    Power generation from biomass is a sustainable energy technology which can contribute to substantial reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, but with greater potential for environmental, economic and social impacts than most other renewable energy technologies. It is important therefore in assessing bioenergy systems to take account of not only technical, but also environmental, economic and social parameters on a common basis. This work addresses the challenge of analysing, quantifying and comparing these factors for bioenergy power generation systems. A life-cycle approach is used to analyse the technical, environmental, economic and social impacts of entire bioelectricity systems, with a number of life-cycle indicators as outputs to facilitate cross-comparison. The results show that similar greenhouse gas savings are achieved with the wide variety of technologies and scales studied, but land-use efficiency of greenhouse gas savings and specific airborne emissions varied substantially. Also, while specific investment costs and electricity costs vary substantially from one system to another the number of jobs created per unit of electricity delivered remains roughly constant. Recorded views of stakeholders illustrate that diverging priorities exist for different stakeholder groups and this will influence appropriate choice of bioenergy systems for different applications

  4. Forecast skill score assessment of a relocatable ocean prediction system, using a simplified objective analysis method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onken, Reiner

    2017-11-01

    A relocatable ocean prediction system (ROPS) was employed to an observational data set which was collected in June 2014 in the waters to the west of Sardinia (western Mediterranean) in the framework of the REP14-MED experiment. The observational data, comprising more than 6000 temperature and salinity profiles from a fleet of underwater gliders and shipborne probes, were assimilated in the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), which is the heart of ROPS, and verified against independent observations from ScanFish tows by means of the forecast skill score as defined by Murphy(1993). A simplified objective analysis (OA) method was utilised for assimilation, taking account of only those profiles which were located within a predetermined time window W. As a result of a sensitivity study, the highest skill score was obtained for a correlation length scale C = 12.5 km, W = 24 h, and r = 1, where r is the ratio between the error of the observations and the background error, both for temperature and salinity. Additional ROPS runs showed that (i) the skill score of assimilation runs was mostly higher than the score of a control run without assimilation, (i) the skill score increased with increasing forecast range, and (iii) the skill score for temperature was higher than the score for salinity in the majority of cases. Further on, it is demonstrated that the vast number of observations can be managed by the applied OA method without data reduction, enabling timely operational forecasts even on a commercially available personal computer or a laptop.

  5. Assessment of GloSea4 seasonal forecasts for SADC and the global oceans

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available seasonal forecasts for SADC and the global oceans WA LANDMAN1, R GRAHAM2, J KNIGHT2, C ENGELBRECHT3 AND C OLIVIER4 1CSIR Natural Resources and the Environment, PO Box 395, Pretoria 0001 2Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, United Kingdom 3... period from 2003 to 2009 (the CCA calibration is made on the seven-year period 1996?2002). SST hindcasts over the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Ni?o3.4) are similarly recalibrated to the 1?x1? resolution data of NOAA?s OI.v2. The intra...

  6. The Use of Interactive Graphics Processing in Short-Range Terminal Weather Forecasting: An Initial Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-03-31

    need to move from a manual, labor -intensive weather support function to provide more timely re- sponse to operational needs, the USAF has embarked on a...namely from the Air Force Global Weather Central (AFGVC) and the Automated Weather Network (AWN). The AWN collects, edits, reforma :-s and transmits...n wkillI affect thle kasa aUI ArICa late in the 1 2-h forecast period. Thus, showers <car be explected in \\k ausan after 2000 GAI~lT wvith steady

  7. Assessing various approaches for flash flood forecasting in the Yzeron periurban catchment (150 km2) south-east Lyon, France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braud, Isabelle; Breil, Pascal; Javelle, Pierre; Pejakovic, Nikola; Guérin, Stéphane

    2017-04-01

    The Yzeron periurban catchment (150 km2) is prone to flash floods leading to overflow in the downstream part of the catchment. A prevention and management plan has been approved and the set-up of a flood forecasting system is planned. The present study presents a comparison of several solutions for flood forecasting in the catchment. It is based on an extensive data collection (rain gauges, radar/rain gauge reanalyses, discharge and water level data) from this experimental catchment. A set of rainfall-runoff events leading to floods (problematic and non-problematic floods) was extracted and formed the basis for the definition of a first forecasting method. It is based on data analysis and the identification of explaining factors amongst the following: rainfall amount, intensity, antecedent rainfall, initial discharge. Several statistical methods including Factorial Analysis of Mixed Data and Classification and Regression Tree were used for this purpose. They showed that several classes of problematic floods can be identified. The first one is related to wet conditions characterized with high initial discharge and antecedent rainfall. The second class is driven by rainfall amount, initial discharge and rainfall intensity. Thresholds of these variables can be identified to provide a first warning. The second forecasting method assessed in the study is the system that will be operational in France in 2017, based on the AIGA method (Javelle et al., 2016). For this purpose, 18-year discharge simulation using the hydrological model of the AIGA method, forced using radar/rain gauges reanalysis were available at 44 locations within the catchment. The dates for which quantiles of a given return period were overtopped were identified and compared with the list of problematic events. The AIGA method was found relevant in identifying the most problematic events, but the lead time needs further investigation in order to assess the usefulness for population warning. References

  8. Impact assessment of Iran's health technology assessment programme.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yazdizadeh, Bahareh; Mohtasham, Farideh; Velayati, Ashraf

    2018-02-22

    Following approximately 10 years from the beginning of Iran's national Health Technology Assessment (HTA) programme, the present study aims to evaluate its success by examining the impact of HTA and identifying the determinant factors leading to the implementation of HTA report results. The triangulation method was employed herein. HTA reports were initially identified and their impact and determinant factors were then examined from the perspectives of both researchers (by preparing a questionnaire according to the Payback model and sending it to HTA principle investigators) and stakeholders (semi-structured interviews held with each HTA stakeholder). Simultaneously, the quality of the HTA reports was examined with relevant critical appraisal checklists. The impact of 19 equipment technologies and four pharmaceutical technologies were assessed in this study. Twenty researchers replied (response rate, 86.96%) to the questionnaire on the impact of HTA reports from the researcher's perspective. To assess the impact of HTA reports from the stakeholder's perspective, seven policy-makers were chosen and interviewed as the main target audience. The most common step taken to disseminate the results of the HTA projects was publication. Conducting the HTA had taught researchers and their colleagues' new skills and had facilitated the securing of research grants from other organisations. Most reports had used the systematic review method but the relevant details had been scarcely presented regarding outcomes, costs and analysis. The greatest impact of HTA reports on decision-making had been on policy-makers providing and allocating finances. Barriers in stewardship, identification and prioritisation of topics, performance and dissemination of HTA results were the main barriers of implementing HTAs. In most aspects, the status of HTA impact reports need improvement. Thus far, the barriers and facilitators of the HTA programme in Iran have been investigated in other studies

  9. Assessing the Impact of Observations on Numerical Weather Forecasts Using the Adjoint Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelaro, Ronald

    2012-01-01

    The adjoint of a data assimilation system provides a flexible and efficient tool for estimating observation impacts on short-range weather forecasts. The impacts of any or all observations can be estimated simultaneously based on a single execution of the adjoint system. The results can be easily aggregated according to data type, location, channel, etc., making this technique especially attractive for examining the impacts of new hyper-spectral satellite instruments and for conducting regular, even near-real time, monitoring of the entire observing system. This talk provides a general overview of the adjoint method, including the theoretical basis and practical implementation of the technique. Results are presented from the adjoint-based observation impact monitoring tool in NASA's GEOS-5 global atmospheric data assimilation and forecast system. When performed in conjunction with standard observing system experiments (OSEs), the adjoint results reveal both redundancies and dependencies between observing system impacts as observations are added or removed from the assimilation system. Understanding these dependencies may be important for optimizing the use of the current observational network and defining requirements for future observing systems

  10. Statistical parameters as a means to a priori assess the accuracy of solar forecasting models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voyant, Cyril; Soubdhan, Ted; Lauret, Philippe; David, Mathieu; Muselli, Marc

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we propose to determinate and to test a set of 20 statistical parameters in order to estimate the short term predictability of the global horizontal irradiation time series and thereby to propose a new prospective tool indicating the expected error regardless the forecasting methods used. The mean absolute log return, which is a tool usually used in econometrics but never in global radiation prediction, proves to be a very good estimator. Some examples of the use of this tool are exposed, showing the interest of this statistical parameter in concrete cases of predictions or optimizations. This study gives a judgment for engineers and researchers on the installation or management of solar plants and could help in minimizing the energy crisis allowing to improve the renewable energy part of the energy mix. - Highlights: • Use of statistical parameter never used for the global radiation forecasting. • A priori index allowing to optimize easily and quickly a clear sky model. • New methodology allowing to quantify the prediction error regardless the predictor used. • The prediction error depends more on the location and the time series type than the machine Learning method used.

  11. Impacts of Amazonia biomass burning aerosols assessed from short-range weather forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. R. Kolusu

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The direct radiative impacts of biomass burning aerosols (BBA on meteorology are investigated using short-range forecasts from the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM over South America during the South American Biomass Burning Analysis (SAMBBA. The impacts are evaluated using a set of three simulations: (i no aerosols, (ii with monthly mean aerosol climatologies and (iii with prognostic aerosols modelled using the Coupled Large-scale Aerosol Simulator for Studies In Climate (CLASSIC scheme. Comparison with observations show that the prognostic CLASSIC scheme provides the best representation of BBA. The impacts of BBA are quantified over central and southern Amazonia from the first and second day of 2-day forecasts during 14 September–3 October 2012. On average, during the first day of the forecast, including prognostic BBA reduces the clear-sky net radiation at the surface by 15 ± 1 W m−2 and reduces net top-of-atmosphere (TOA radiation by 8 ± 1 W m−2, with a direct atmospheric warming of 7 ± 1 W m−2. BBA-induced reductions in all-sky radiation are smaller in magnitude: 9.0 ± 1 W m−2 at the surface and 4.0 ± 1 W m−2 at TOA. In this modelling study the BBA therefore exert an overall cooling influence on the Earth–atmosphere system, although some levels of the atmosphere are directly warmed by the absorption of solar radiation. Due to the reduction of net radiative flux at the surface, the mean 2 m air temperature is reduced by around 0.1 ± 0.02 °C. The BBA also cools the boundary layer (BL but warms air above by around 0.2 °C due to the absorption of shortwave radiation. The overall impact is to reduce the BL depth by around 19 ± 8 m. These differences in heating lead to a more anticyclonic circulation at 700 hPa, with winds changing by around 0.6 m s−1. Inclusion of climatological or prognostic BBA in the MetUM makes a small but significant improvement in forecasts of temperature and relative humidity, but improvements were

  12. History of health technology assessment: Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sampietro-Colom, Laura; Asua, Jose; Briones, Eduardo; Gol, Jordi

    2009-07-01

    The aim of this study was to describe the characteristics of the introduction and diffusion of health technology assessment (HTA) in Spain. A survey to summarize the evolution of HTA was sent to representatives of different HTA initiatives in Spain. HTA was introduced in the late 1980s. The main factors were the trend to an increase in healthcare expenditure, concerns regarding efficiency in providing health care, as well as in the level of rationality introducing high technology. Spain has direct (i.e., regulation) and indirect (i.e., payment systems, evidence-based programs, HTA) mechanisms to control health technologies. A recent high priority regulation has established the need of HTA to decide the introduction of a new health technology in the lists of public healthcare coverage, although similar regulations existed in the past and were scarcely implemented. HTA initiatives started at the regional government level. Its introduction followed a progressive pattern among regions. In the beginning, resources were scarce and expertise limited, with work done at intramural level. With time, expertise increase, and promotion of commissioned work was implemented. HTA knowledge transfer in the healthcare system has been carried out through courses, publications, and commissioned research. Currently, there are seven HTA units/agencies, which coordinate their work. HTA in Spain is in its maturity. Facing the unavoidable change of health care environment over time, HTA is also evolving and, currently, there is a trend to broaden the areas of influence of HTA by devolving capacity to hospitals and applying principles to very early phases of health technology development, under the umbrella of regional HTA units/agencies. However, there are two main challenges ahead. One is to have a real impact at the highest level of healthcare policy coordination among Spanish regions, which is done at the Central Ministry of Health. The other is to avoid the influence of political waves

  13. New technologies - How to assess environmental effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, P. J.; Lavin, M. L.

    1981-01-01

    A method is provided for assessing the environmental effects of a room-and-pillar mining system (RP) and a new hydraulic borehole mining system (HBM). Before environmental assessment can begin, each technology is defined in terms of its engineering characteristics at both the conceptual and preliminary design stages. The mining sites are also described in order to identify the significant advantages and constraints for each system. This can be a basic physical and biological survey of the region at the conceptual stage, but a more specific representation of site characteristics is required at the preliminary stage. Assessment of potential environmental effects of each system at the conceptual design is critical to its hardware development and application. A checklist can be used to compare and identify the negative impacts of each method, outlining the resource affected, the type of impact involved, and the exact activity causing that impact. At the preliminary design stage, these impacts should be evaluated as a result of either utilization or alteration. Underground coal mining systems have three major utilization impacts - the total area disturbed, the total water resources withdrawn from other uses, and the overall energy efficiency of the process - and one major alteration impact - the degradation of water quality by sedimentation and acid contamination. A comparison of the RP and HBM systems shows the HBM to be an environmentally less desirable system for the Central Appalachia region.

  14. Space weather forecasting: Past, Present, Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lanzerotti, L. J.

    2012-12-01

    There have been revolutionary advances in electrical technologies over the last 160 years. The historical record demonstrates that space weather processes have often provided surprises in the implementation and operation of many of these technologies. The historical record also demonstrates that as the complexity of systems increase, including their interconnectedness and interoperability, they can become more susceptible to space weather effects. An engineering goal, beginning during the decades following the 1859 Carrington event, has been to attempt to forecast solar-produced disturbances that could affect technical systems, be they long grounded conductor-based or radio-based or required for exploration, or the increasingly complex systems immersed in the space environment itself. Forecasting of space weather events involves both frontier measurements and models to address engineering requirements, and industrial and governmental policies that encourage and permit creativity and entrepreneurship. While analogies of space weather forecasting to terrestrial weather forecasting are frequently made, and while many of the analogies are valid, there are also important differences. This presentation will provide some historical perspectives on the forecast problem, a personal assessment of current status of several areas including important policy issues, and a look into the not-too-distant future.

  15. An Assessment of Emerging Wireless Broadband Technologies

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Fountanas, Leonidas

    2001-01-01

    ... technologies in providing broadband services today, emerging wireless broadband technologies are expected to significantly increase their market share over the next years, Deploying a wireless network...

  16. Drug delivery system innovation and Health Technology Assessment: Upgrading from Clinical to Technological Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panzitta, Michele; Bruno, Giorgio; Giovagnoli, Stefano; Mendicino, Francesca R; Ricci, Maurizio

    2015-11-30

    Health Technology Assessment (HTA) is a multidisciplinary health political instrument that evaluates the consequences, mainly clinical and economical, of a health care technology; the HTA aim is to produce and spread information on scientific and technological innovation for health political decision making process. Drug delivery systems (DDS), such as nanocarriers, are technologically complex but they have pivotal relevance in therapeutic innovation. The HTA process, as commonly applied to conventional drug evaluation, should upgrade to a full pharmaceutical assessment, considering the DDS complexity. This is useful to study more in depth the clinical outcome and to broaden its critical assessment toward pharmaceutical issues affecting the patient and not measured by the current clinical evidence approach. We draw out the expertise necessary to perform the pharmaceutical assessment and we propose a format to evaluate the DDS technological topics such as formulation and mechanism of action, physicochemical characteristics, manufacturing process. We integrated the above-mentioned three points in the Evidence Based Medicine approach, which is data source for any HTA process. In this regard, the introduction of a Pharmaceutics Expert figure in the HTA could be fundamental to grant a more detailed evaluation of medicine product characteristics and performances and to help optimizing DDS features to overcome R&D drawbacks. Some aspects of product development, such as manufacturing processes, should be part of the HTA as innovative manufacturing processes allow new products to reach more effectively patient bedside. HTA so upgraded may encourage resource allocating payers to invest in innovative technologies and providers to focus on innovative material properties and manufacturing processes, thus contributing to bring more medicines in therapy in a sustainable manner. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Interactions of physical, chemical, and biological weather calling for an integrated approach to assessment, forecasting, and communication of air quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Thomas; Kukkonen, Jaakko; Dahl, Aslög; Bossioli, Elissavet; Baklanov, Alexander; Vik, Aasmund Fahre; Agnew, Paul; Karatzas, Kostas D; Sofiev, Mikhail

    2012-12-01

    This article reviews interactions and health impacts of physical, chemical, and biological weather. Interactions and synergistic effects between the three types of weather call for integrated assessment, forecasting, and communication of air quality. Today's air quality legislation falls short of addressing air quality degradation by biological weather, despite increasing evidence for the feasibility of both mitigation and adaptation policy options. In comparison with the existing capabilities for physical and chemical weather, the monitoring of biological weather is lacking stable operational agreements and resources. Furthermore, integrated effects of physical, chemical, and biological weather suggest a critical review of air quality management practices. Additional research is required to improve the coupled modeling of physical, chemical, and biological weather as well as the assessment and communication of integrated air quality. Findings from several recent COST Actions underline the importance of an increased dialog between scientists from the fields of meteorology, air quality, aerobiology, health, and policy makers.

  18. A seamless global hydrological monitoring and forecasting system for water resources assessment and hydrological hazard early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheffield, Justin; He, Xiaogang; Wood, Eric; Pan, Ming; Wanders, Niko; Zhan, Wang; Peng, Liqing

    2017-04-01

    Sustainable management of water resources and mitigation of the impacts of hydrological hazards are becoming ever more important at large scales because of inter-basin, inter-country and inter-continental connections in water dependent sectors. These include water resources management, food production, and energy production, whose needs must be weighed against the water needs of ecosystems and preservation of water resources for future generations. The strains on these connections are likely to increase with climate change and increasing demand from burgeoning populations and rapid development, with potential for conflict over water. At the same time, network connections may provide opportunities to alleviate pressures on water availability through more efficient use of resources such as trade in water dependent goods. A key constraint on understanding, monitoring and identifying solutions to increasing competition for water resources and hazard risk is the availability of hydrological data for monitoring and forecasting water resources and hazards. We present a global online system that provides continuous and consistent water products across time scales, from the historic instrumental period, to real-time monitoring, short-term and seasonal forecasts, and climate change projections. The system is intended to provide data and tools for analysis of historic hydrological variability and trends, water resources assessment, monitoring of evolving hazards and forecasts for early warning, and climate change scale projections of changes in water availability and extreme events. The system is particular useful for scientists and stakeholders interested in regions with less available in-situ data, and where forecasts have the potential to help decision making. The system is built on a database of high-resolution climate data from 1950 to present that merges available observational records with bias-corrected reanalysis and satellite data, which then drives a coupled land

  19. Assimilation of Deformation Data for Eruption Forecasting: Potentiality Assessment Based on Synthetic Cases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Grace Bato

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In monitoring active volcanoes, the magma overpressure is one of the key parameters used in forecasting volcanic eruptions. This parameter can be inferred from the ground displacements measured on the Earth's surface by applying inversion techniques. However, in most studies, the huge amount of information about the behavior of the volcano contained in the temporal evolution of the deformation signal is not fully exploited by inversion. Our work focuses on developing a strategy in order to better forecast the magma overpressure using data assimilation. We take advantage of the increasing amount of geodetic data [i.e., Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS] recorded on volcanoes nowadays together with the wide-range availability of dynamical models that can provide better understanding about the volcano plumbing system. Here, we particularly built our strategy on the basis of the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF. We forecast the temporal behaviors of the magma overpressures and surface deformations by adopting a simple and generic two-magma chamber model and by using synthetic GNSS and/or InSAR data. We prove the ability of EnKF to both estimate the magma pressure evolution and constrain the characteristics of the deep volcanic system (i.e., reservoir size as well as basal magma inflow. High temporal frequency of observation is required to ensure the success of EnKF and the quality of assimilation is also improved by increasing the spatial density of observations in the near-field. We thus show that better results are obtained by combining a few GNSS temporal series of high temporal resolution with InSAR images characterized by a good spatial coverage. We also show that EnKF provides similar results to sophisticated Bayesian-based inversion while using the same dynamical model with the advantage of EnKF to potentially account for the temporal evolution of the uncertain model parameters. Our

  20. The development of the Sustainable Technology Balance Sheet: a generic technology assessment tool to assess the sustainability of renewable energy technologies.

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Peach, W

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available on Sustainable Development NPV Net Present Value NSF National Science Foundation OTA Office of Technology Assessment PIA Privacy Impact Assessments PPP Public-Private Partnership pTA Participatory Technology Assessment RA Risk Assessment... 2.1. The history and development of TA After the establishment of the USA Congressional Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) in 1972, forms of formal energy technology assessment began to take shape. These were defined as a ?comprehensive form...

  1. The use of regression for assessing a seasonal forecast model experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benestad, Rasmus E.; Senan, Retish; Orsolini, Yvan

    2016-11-01

    We show how factorial regression can be used to analyse numerical model experiments, testing the effect of different model settings. We analysed results from a coupled atmosphere-ocean model to explore how the different choices in the experimental set-up influence the seasonal predictions. These choices included a representation of the sea ice and the height of top of the atmosphere, and the results suggested that the simulated monthly mean air temperatures poleward of the mid-latitudes were highly sensitivity to the specification of the top of the atmosphere, interpreted as the presence or absence of a stratosphere. The seasonal forecasts for the mid-latitudes to high latitudes were also sensitive to whether the model set-up included a dynamic or non-dynamic sea-ice representation, although this effect was somewhat less important than the role of the stratosphere. The air temperature in the tropics was insensitive to these choices.

  2. Ideal point error for model assessment in data-driven river flow forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. W. Dawson

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available When analysing the performance of hydrological models in river forecasting, researchers use a number of diverse statistics. Although some statistics appear to be used more regularly in such analyses than others, there is a distinct lack of consistency in evaluation, making studies undertaken by different authors or performed at different locations difficult to compare in a meaningful manner. Moreover, even within individual reported case studies, substantial contradictions are found to occur between one measure of performance and another. In this paper we examine the ideal point error (IPE metric – a recently introduced measure of model performance that integrates a number of recognised metrics in a logical way. Having a single, integrated measure of performance is appealing as it should permit more straightforward model inter-comparisons. However, this is reliant on a transferrable standardisation of the individual metrics that are combined to form the IPE. This paper examines one potential option for standardisation: the use of naive model benchmarking.

  3. Skill Assessment of An Hybrid Technique To Estimate Quantitative Precipitation Forecast For Galicia (nw Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lage, A.; Taboada, J. J.

    Precipitation is the most obvious of the weather elements in its effects on normal life. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) is generally used to produce quantitative precip- itation forecast (QPF) beyond the 1-3 h time frame. These models often fail to predict small-scale variations of rain because of spin-up problems and their coarse spatial and temporal resolution (Antolik, 2000). Moreover, there are some uncertainties about the behaviour of the NWP models in extreme situations (de Bruijn and Brandsma, 2000). Hybrid techniques, combining the benefits of NWP and statistical approaches in a flexible way, are very useful to achieve a good QPF. In this work, a new technique of QPF for Galicia (NW of Spain) is presented. This region has a percentage of rainy days per year greater than 50% with quantities that may cause floods, with human and economical damages. The technique is composed of a NWP model (ARPS) and a statistical downscaling process based on an automated classification scheme of at- mospheric circulation patterns for the Iberian Peninsula (J. Ribalaygua and R. Boren, 1995). Results show that QPF for Galicia is improved using this hybrid technique. [1] Antolik, M.S. 2000 "An Overview of the National Weather Service's centralized statistical quantitative precipitation forecasts". Journal of Hydrology, 239, pp:306- 337. [2] de Bruijn, E.I.F and T. Brandsma "Rainfall prediction for a flooding event in Ireland caused by the remnants of Hurricane Charley". Journal of Hydrology, 239, pp:148-161. [3] Ribalaygua, J. and Boren R. "Clasificación de patrones espaciales de precipitación diaria sobre la España Peninsular". Informes N 3 y 4 del Servicio de Análisis e Investigación del Clima. Instituto Nacional de Meteorología. Madrid. 53 pp.

  4. Technology assessment Jordan Nuclear Power Plant Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-01-01

    Preliminary regional analysis was carried out for identification of potential sites for NPP, followed by screening of these sites and selecting candidate sites. Aqaba sites are proposed, where it can use the sea water for cooling: i.Site 1; at the sea where it can use the sea water for direct cooling. ii.Site 2; 10 km to the east of Gulf of Aqaba shoreline at the Saudi Arabia borders. iii.Site 3, 4 km to the east of Gulf of Aqaba shoreline. Only the granitic basement in the east of the 6 km²site should be considered as a potential site for a NPP. Preliminary probabilistic seismic hazard assessment gives: Operating-Basis Earthquake-OBE (475 years return period) found to be in the range of 0.163-0.182 g; Safe Shutdown Earthquake-SSE (10,000 years return period) found to be in the range of 0.333-0.502g. The process include also setting up of nuclear company and other organizational matters. Regulations in development are: Site approval; Construction permitting; Overall licensing; Safety (design, construction, training, operations, QA); Emergency planning; Decommissioning; Spent fuel and RW management. JAEC's technology assessment strategy and evaluation methodology are presented

  5. Assessing the Value of Post-processed State-of-the-art Long-term Weather Forecast Ensembles within An Integrated Agronomic Modelling Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    LI, Y.; Castelletti, A.; Giuliani, M.

    2014-12-01

    Over recent years, long-term climate forecast from global circulation models (GCMs) has been demonstrated to show increasing skills over the climatology, thanks to the advances in the modelling of coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics. Improved information from long-term forecast is supposed to be a valuable support to farmers in optimizing farming operations (e.g. crop choice, cropping time) and for more effectively coping with the adverse impacts of climate variability. Yet, evaluating how valuable this information can be is not straightforward and farmers' response must be taken into consideration. Indeed, while long-range forecast are traditionally evaluated in terms of accuracy by comparison of hindcast and observed values, in the context of agricultural systems, potentially useful forecast information should alter the stakeholders' expectation, modify their decisions and ultimately have an impact on their annual benefit. Therefore, it is more desirable to assess the value of those long-term forecasts via decision-making models so as to extract direct indication of probable decision outcomes from farmers, i.e. from an end-to-end perspective. In this work, we evaluate the operational value of thirteen state-of-the-art long-range forecast ensembles against climatology forecast and subjective prediction (i.e. past year climate and historical average) within an integrated agronomic modeling framework embedding an implicit model of farmers' behavior. Collected ensemble datasets are bias-corrected and downscaled using a stochastic weather generator, in order to address the mismatch of the spatio-temporal scale between forecast data from GCMs and distributed crop simulation model. The agronomic model is first simulated using the forecast information (ex-ante), followed by a second run with actual climate (ex-post). Multi-year simulations are performed to account for climate variability and the value of the different climate forecast is evaluated against the perfect

  6. Assessing nano cellulose developments using science and technology indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Milanez, Douglas Henrique; Amaral, Roniberto Morato do; Faria, Leandro Innocentini Lopes de; Gregolin, Jose Angelo Rodrigues

    2013-01-01

    This research aims to examine scientific and technological trends of developments in nano cellulose based on scientometric and patent indicators obtained from the Science Citation Index and Derwent Innovations Index in 2001-2010. The overall nano cellulose activity indicators were compared to nanotechnology and other selected nano materials. Scientific and technological future developments in nano cellulose were forecasted using extrapolation growth curves and the main countries were also mapped. The results showed that nano cellulose publications and patent documents have increased rapidly over the last five years with an average growth rate higher than that of nanotechnology and fullerene. The USA, Japan, France, Sweden and Finland all played a significant role in nano cellulose development and the extrapolation growth curves suggested that nano cellulose scientific and technological activities are still emerging. Finally, the evidence from this study recommends monitoring nano cellulose S and T advances in the coming years. (author)

  7. Assessing nano cellulose developments using science and technology indicators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Milanez, Douglas Henrique; Amaral, Roniberto Morato do; Faria, Leandro Innocentini Lopes de; Gregolin, Jose Angelo Rodrigues, E-mail: douglasmilanez@yahoo.com.br [Universidade Federal de Sao Carlos (UFSCar), SP (Brazil). Nucleo de Informacao Tecnologica em Materiais. Dept. de Engenharia de Materiais

    2013-11-01

    This research aims to examine scientific and technological trends of developments in nano cellulose based on scientometric and patent indicators obtained from the Science Citation Index and Derwent Innovations Index in 2001-2010. The overall nano cellulose activity indicators were compared to nanotechnology and other selected nano materials. Scientific and technological future developments in nano cellulose were forecasted using extrapolation growth curves and the main countries were also mapped. The results showed that nano cellulose publications and patent documents have increased rapidly over the last five years with an average growth rate higher than that of nanotechnology and fullerene. The USA, Japan, France, Sweden and Finland all played a significant role in nano cellulose development and the extrapolation growth curves suggested that nano cellulose scientific and technological activities are still emerging. Finally, the evidence from this study recommends monitoring nano cellulose S and T advances in the coming years. (author)

  8. Assessing nanocellulose developments using science and technology indicators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douglas Henrique Milanez

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This research aims to examine scientific and technological trends of developments in nanocellulose based on scientometric and patent indicators obtained from the Science Citation Index and Derwent Innovations Index in 2001-2010. The overall nanocellulose activity indicators were compared to nanotechnology and other selected nanomaterials. Scientific and technological future developments in nanocellulose were forecasted using extrapolation growth curves and the main countries were also mapped. The results showed that nanocellulose publications and patent documents have increased rapidly over the last five years with an average growth rate higher than that of nanotechnology and fullerene. The USA, Japan, France, Sweden and Finland all played a significant role in nanocellulose development and the extrapolation growth curves suggested that nanocellulose scientific and technological activities are still emerging. Finally, the evidence from this study recommends monitoring nanocellulose S&T advances in the coming years.

  9. Space Launch System Upper Stage Technology Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holladay, Jon; Hampton, Bryan; Monk, Timothy

    2014-01-01

    discussed in light of the various missions. For each mission there are several trajectory options and each will be discussed in terms of delta-v required and transit duration. Each propulsion system will be modeled, sized, and judged based on their applicability to the whole range of beyond LEO missions. Criteria for scoring will include the resulting dry mass of the stage, resulting propellant required, time to destination, and an assessment of key enabling technologies. In addition to the larger metrics, this paper will present the results of several coupled sensitivity studies. The ultimate goals of these tools and studies are to provide NASA with the most mass-, technology-, and cost-effective in-space stage for its future exploration missions.

  10. A conceptual framework for energy technology sustainability assessment

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Musango, Josephine K

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Technology assessment has changed in nature over the last four decades from an analytical tool for technology evaluation, which depends heavily on quantitative and qualitative modelling methodologies, into a strategic planning tool for policy making...

  11. History of healthcare technology assessment in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hisashige, Akinori

    2009-07-01

    There has been a rapid growth of healthcare technology assessment (HTA) activities among health service researchers and physicians in Japan in the younger generation since the mid-1980s. HTA has become visible since the Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare (MHLW) set up the several committees related to HTA in the late 1990s. The MHLW had to participate in regulatory and administrative reform, coping with the serious economic stagnation since 1991, following the economic recession in the 1980s. However, HTA has not been developed as expected. The most important failure is that the application of HTA to health policy has been neglected by the MHLW. Only application to clinical practice has been implemented by developing evidence-based clinical practice guidelines. The MHLW had the main aim of containing costs by reducing excess or useless healthcare services through guidelines, rather than to implement a radical reform. Without a central organization for HTA, several researchers have still continued to do HTA studies, but most researchers and physicians promoting HTA have been moved into diverse related areas. Ultimately, increasing efficiency may be the only way of reconciling rising demands for health care with public financing constraints. Therefore, the reconsideration and reorganization of HTA, which covers not only healthcare services but also the healthcare system as a whole, is becoming an urgent matter for healthcare reform.

  12. INTELLIGENCE AND TRANSPARENCY IN HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Henry S

    2016-01-01

    Current thinking about the methodology of health technology assessment (HTA) seems to be dominated by two fundamental tensions: [1] between maintaining a tight focus on quality-adjusted life-years and broadening its concern out to pay attention to a broader range of factors, and [2] between thinking of the evaluative dimensions that matter as being objectively important factors or as ones that are ultimately of merely subjective importance. In this study, I will argue that health is a tremendously important all-purpose means to enjoying basic human capabilities, but a mere means, and not an end. The ends to which health is a means are manifold, requiring all those engaged in policy making to exercise intelligence in a continuing effort to identify them and to think through how they interrelate. Retreating to the subjective here would be at odds with the basic idea of HTA, which is to focus on certain objectively describable dimensions of what matters about health and to collect empirical evidence rigorously bearing on what produces improvements along those dimensions. To proceed intelligently in doing HTA, it is important to stay open to reframing and refashioning the ends we take to apply to that arena. The only way for that to happen, as an exercise of public, democratic policy making, is for the difficult value questions that arise when ends clash not to be buried in subjective preference information, but to be front-and-center in the analysis.

  13. Problems of method of technology assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zimmermann, V.

    1993-03-01

    The study undertakes to analyse the theoretical and methodological structure of Technology Assessment (TA). It is based on a survey of TA studies which provided an important condition for theoreticall sound statements on methodological aspects of TA. It was established that the main basic theoretical problems of TA are in the field of dealing with complexity. This is also apparent in the constitution of problems, the most elementary and central approach of TA. Scientifically founded constitution of problems and the corresponding construction of models call for interdisciplinary scientific work. Interdisciplinarity in the TA research process is achieved at the level of virtual networks, these networks being composed of individuals suited to teamwork. The emerging network structures have an objective-organizational and an ideational basis. The objective-organizational basis is mainly the result of team composition and the external affiliations of the team members. The ideational basis of the virtual network is represented by the team members' mode of thinking, which is individually located at a multidisciplinary level. The theoretical 'skeleton' of the TA knowledge system, which is represented by process knowledge based linkage structures, can be generated and also processed in connection with the knowledge on types of problems, areas of analysis and procedures to deal with complexity. Within this process, disciplinary knowledge is a necessary but not a sufficient condition. Metatheoretical and metadisciplinary knowledge and the correspondingly processes complexity of models are the basis for the necessary methodological awareness, that allows TA to become designable as a research procedure. (orig./HP) [de

  14. Environmental assessment report: Nuclear Test Technology Complex

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tonnessen, K.; Tewes, H.A.

    1982-08-01

    The US Department of Energy (USDOE) is planning to construct and operate a structure, designated the Nuclear Test Technology Complex (NTTC), on a site located west of and adjacent to the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The NTTC is designed to house 350 nuclear test program personnel, and will accommodate the needs of the entire staff of the continuing Nuclear Test Program (NTP). The project has three phases: land acquisition, facility construction and facility operation. The purpose of this environmental assessment report is to describe the activities associated with the three phases of the NTTC project and to evaluate potential environmental disruptions. The project site is located in a rural area of southeastern Alameda County, California, where the primary land use is agriculture; however, the County has zoned the area for industrial development. The environmental impacts of the project include surface disturbance, high noise levels, possible increases in site erosion, and decreased air quality. These impacts will occur primarily during the construction phase of the NTTC project and can be mitigated in part by measures proposed in this report

  15. Use of forecasted assessment of quality of life to validate time-trade-off utilities and a prostate cancer screening decision-analytic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cantor, Scott B; Deshmukh, Ashish A; Krahn, Murray D; Volk, Robert J

    2015-10-01

    To determine whether the forecasted assessment of how someone would feel in a future health state can be predictive of utilities (e.g. as elicited by the time-trade-off method) and also predictive of optimal decisions as determined by a decision-analytic model. We elicited time-trade-off utilities for prostate cancer treatment outcomes from 168 men. We also elicited forecasted assessments, that is, an informal, non-quantitative, descriptive evaluation, of impotence and incontinence from these men. We used multivariate regression analysis to explore the relationship between forecasted assessment and reluctance to trade length for improved quality of life, that is, the unwillingness to trade length of life for improved quality of life in the time-trade-off utility assessment and the relationship between the forecasted assessments and the optimal decision of whether to undergo screening for prostate cancer as determined from a previously published decision-analytic model. Importance of sexual function was strongly related to impotence utilities (P decision. Anticipated difficulty adjusting to adverse health effects were highly related to preferences and could be used as a proxy measure of utility. Similarly, the importance of sexual functioning, a future preference, was highly related to the optimal decision, which validates our previously published decision-analytic model. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. The Office for Technology Assessment with the German Parliament (TAB)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grunwald, A.; Petermann, T.

    2004-01-01

    TAB was created in 1990 with the aim of providing contributions to the improvement of the information base, particularly for parliamentary decision-making concerning science and technology. Among TAB's tasks are above all the conception and execution of technology assessment projects and the monitoring and analysis of important scientific and technological trends and related societal developments. TAB is managed by the Institute for Technology Assessment and Systems Analysis (ITAS) of the Karlsruhe Research Center. (orig.)

  17. Forecasting consequences of accidental release: how reliable are current assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rohwer, P.S.; Hoffman, F.O.; Miller, C.W.

    1983-01-01

    This paper focuses on uncertainties in model output used to assess accidents. We begin by reviewing the historical development of assessment models and the associated interest in uncertainties as these evolutionary processes occurred in the United States. This is followed by a description of the sources of uncertainties in assessment calculations. Types of models appropriate for assessment of accidents are identified. A summary of results from our analysis of uncertainty is provided in results obtained with current methodology for assessing routine and accidental radionuclide releases to the environment. We conclude with discussion of preferred procedures and suggested future directions to improve the state-of-the-art of radiological assessments

  18. Risk analysis and technology assessment in support of technology development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wezel, van Annemarie P.; Lente, van Harro; Sandt, van de Johannes J.M.; Bouwmeester, Hans; Vandeberg, Rens L.J.; Sips, Adrienne J.A.M.

    2018-01-01

    Governments invest in “key enabling technologies,” such as nanotechnology, to solve societal challenges and boost the economy. At the same time, governmental agencies demand risk reduction to prohibit any often unknown adverse effects, and industrial parties demand smart approaches to reduce

  19. MODELKEY. Models for assessing and forecasting the impact of environmental key pollutants on freshwater and marine ecosystems and biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brack, Werner; Bakker, Joop; de Deckere, Eric; Deerenberg, Charlotte; van Gils, Jos; Hein, Michaela; Jurajda, Pavel; Kooijman, Bas; Lamoree, Marja; Lek, Sovan; López de Alda, Maria Jose; Marcomini, Antonio; Muñoz, Isabel; Rattei, Silke; Segner, Helmut; Thomas, Kevin; von der Ohe, Peter Carsten; Westrich, Bernhard; de Zwart, Dick; Schmitt-Jansen, Mechthild

    2005-09-01

    Triggered by the requirement of Water Framework Directive for a good ecological status for European river systems till 2015 and by still existing lacks in tools for cause identification of insufficient ecological status MODELKEY (http:// www.modelkey.org), an Integrated Project with 26 partners from 14 European countries, was started in 2005. MODELKEY is the acronym for 'Models for assessing and forecasting the impact of environmental key pollutants on freshwater and marine ecosystems and biodiversity'. The project is funded by the European Commission within the Sixth Framework Programme. MODELKEY comprises a multidisciplinary approach aiming at developing interlinked tools for an enhanced understanding of cause-effect-relationships between insufficient ecological status and environmental pollution as causative factor and for the assessment and forecasting of the risks of key pollutants on fresh water and marine ecosystems at a river basin and adjacent marine environment scale. New modelling tools for risk assessment including generic exposure assessment models, mechanistic models of toxic effects in simplified food chains, integrated diagnostic effect models based on community patterns, predictive component effect models applying artificial neural networks and GIS-based analysis of integrated risk indexes will be developed and linked to a user-friendly decision support system for the prioritisation of risks, contamination sources and contaminated sites. Modelling will be closely interlinked with extensive laboratory and field investigations. Early warning strategies on the basis of sub-lethal effects in vitro and in vivo are provided and combined with fractionation and analytical tools for effect-directed analysis of key toxicants. Integrated assessment of exposure and effects on biofilms, invertebrate and fish communities linking chemical analysis in water, sediment and biota with in vitro, in vivo and community level effect analysis is designed to provide data

  20. Flood Foresight: A near-real time flood monitoring and forecasting tool for rapid and predictive flood impact assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Revilla-Romero, Beatriz; Shelton, Kay; Wood, Elizabeth; Berry, Robert; Bevington, John; Hankin, Barry; Lewis, Gavin; Gubbin, Andrew; Griffiths, Samuel; Barnard, Paul; Pinnell, Marc; Huyck, Charles

    2017-04-01

    The hours and days immediately after a major flood event are often chaotic and confusing, with first responders rushing to mobilise emergency responders, provide alleviation assistance and assess loss to assets of interest (e.g., population, buildings or utilities). Preparations in advance of a forthcoming event are becoming increasingly important; early warning systems have been demonstrated to be useful tools for decision markers. The extent of damage, human casualties and economic loss estimates can vary greatly during an event, and the timely availability of an accurate flood extent allows emergency response and resources to be optimised, reduces impacts, and helps prioritise recovery. In the insurance sector, for example, insurers are under pressure to respond in a proactive manner to claims rather than waiting for policyholders to report losses. Even though there is a great demand for flood inundation extents and severity information in different sectors, generating flood footprints for large areas from hydraulic models in real time remains a challenge. While such footprints can be produced in real time using remote sensing, weather conditions and sensor availability limit their ability to capture every single flood event across the globe. In this session, we will present Flood Foresight (www.floodforesight.com), an operational tool developed to meet the universal requirement for rapid geographic information, before, during and after major riverine flood events. The tool provides spatial data with which users can measure their current or predicted impact from an event - at building, basin, national or continental scales. Within Flood Foresight, the Screening component uses global rainfall predictions to provide a regional- to continental-scale view of heavy rainfall events up to a week in advance, alerting the user to potentially hazardous situations relevant to them. The Forecasting component enhances the predictive suite of tools by providing a local

  1. INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES TRAINING: CRITERIA FOR INTERNAL QUALITY ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oleg M. Spirin

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available In the article the concept of information and communication technology training is specified. It is grounded an internal criteria of information and communication technologies training quality assessment based on experience of the organization, carrying out, analysis of experimental work results on quality assessment of designing, working out, efficiency of methodical system of informatics teachers base vocational training introduction in the conditions of credit-modular technology. Indicators and approaches of their assessment to define the criteria degree are resulted. Indicators of criteria "level differentiation", "individualization" and "intensification" of educational process for information and communication technologies training quality assessment are specified.

  2. Atmospheric Motion Vectors from INSAT-3D: Initial quality assessment and its impact on track forecast of cyclonic storm NANAUK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deb, S. K.; Kishtawal, C. M.; Kumar, Prashant; Kiran Kumar, A. S.; Pal, P. K.; Kaushik, Nitesh; Sangar, Ghansham

    2016-03-01

    The advanced Indian meteorological geostationary satellite INSAT-3D was launched on 26 July 2013 with an improved imager and an infrared sounder and is placed at 82°E over the Indian Ocean region. With the advancement in retrieval techniques of different atmospheric parameters and with improved imager data have enhanced the scope for better understanding of the different tropical atmospheric processes over this region. The retrieval techniques and accuracy of one such parameter, Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMV) has improved significantly with the availability of improved spatial resolution data along with more options of spectral channels in the INSAT-3D imager. The present work is mainly focused on providing brief descriptions of INSAT-3D data and AMV derivation processes using these data. It also discussed the initial quality assessment of INSAT-3D AMVs for a period of six months starting from 01 February 2014 to 31 July 2014 with other independent observations: i) Meteosat-7 AMVs available over this region, ii) in-situ radiosonde wind measurements, iii) cloud tracked winds from Multi-angle Imaging Spectro-Radiometer (MISR) and iv) numerical model analysis. It is observed from this study that the qualities of newly derived INSAT-3D AMVs are comparable with existing two versions of Meteosat-7 AMVs over this region. To demonstrate its initial application, INSAT-3D AMVs are assimilated in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and it is found that the assimilation of newly derived AMVs has helped in reduction of track forecast errors of the recent cyclonic storm NANAUK over the Arabian Sea. Though, the present study is limited to its application to one case study, however, it will provide some guidance to the operational agencies for implementation of this new AMV dataset for future applications in the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) over the south Asia region.

  3. Development of Integrated Assessment Technology of Risk and Performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Jun Eon; Kang, Dae Il; Kang, Hyun Gook

    2010-04-01

    The main idea and contents are summarized as below 1) Development of new risk/performance assessment system innovating old labor-intensive risk assessment structure - New consolidated risk assessment technology from various hazard(flood, fire, seismic in NPP) - BOP model development for performance monitoring - Consolidated risk/performance management system for consistency and efficiency of NPP 2) Resolution technology for pending issues in PSA - Base technology for PSA of digital I and C system - Base technology for seismic PSA reflecting domestic seismic characteristics and aging effect - Uncertainty reduction technology for level 2 PSA and best estimation of containment failure frequency 3) Next generation risk/performance assessment technology - Human-induced error reduction technology for efficient operation of a NPP

  4. Solar sail-solar electric technology readiness and transfer assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chase, R. L.

    1977-01-01

    A method of conducting a technology readiness assessment was developed. It uses existing OAST technology readiness and risk criteria to define a technology readiness factor that considers both the required gain in technology readiness level to achieved technology readiness plus the degree of effort associated with achieving the gain. The results indicate that Solar Electric Propulsion is preferred based on technology readiness criteria. Both Solar Sail and Solar Electric Propulsion have a high level of transfer potential for future NASA missions, and each has considerable technology spillover for non-NASA applications.

  5. An evolving-requirements technology assessment process for advanced propulsion concepts

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClure, Erin Kathleen

    The following dissertation investigates the development of a methodology suitable for the evaluation of advanced propulsion concepts. At early stages of development, both the future performance of these concepts and their requirements are highly uncertain, making it difficult to forecast their future value. Developing advanced propulsion concepts requires a huge investment of resources. The methodology was developed to enhance the decision-makers understanding of the concepts, so that they could mitigate the risks associated with developing such concepts. A systematic methodology to identify potential advanced propulsion concepts and assess their robustness is necessary to reduce the risk of developing advanced propulsion concepts. Existing advanced design methodologies have evaluated the robustness of technologies or concepts to variations in requirements, but they are not suitable to evaluate a large number of dissimilar concepts. Variations in requirements have been shown to impact the development of advanced propulsion concepts, and any method designed to evaluate these concepts must incorporate the possible variations of the requirements into the assessment. In order to do so, a methodology was formulated to be capable of accounting for two aspects of the problem. First, it had to systemically identify a probabilistic distribution for the future requirements. Such a distribution would allow decision-makers to quantify the uncertainty introduced by variations in requirements. Second, the methodology must be able to assess the robustness of the propulsion concepts as a function of that distribution. This dissertation describes in depth these enabling elements and proceeds to synthesize them into a new method, the Evolving Requirements Technology Assessment (ERTA). As a proof of concept, the ERTA method was used to evaluate and compare advanced propulsion systems that will be capable of powering a hurricane tracking, High Altitude, Long Endurance (HALE) unmanned

  6. Review of early assessment models of innovative medical technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fasterholdt, Iben; Krahn, Murray D; Kidholm, Kristian

    2017-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Hospitals increasingly make decisions regarding the early development of and investment in technologies, but a formal evaluation model for assisting hospitals early on in assessing the potential of innovative medical technologies is lacking. This article provides an overview of models...... methods assessing cost-effectiveness are most prevalent in early assessment, but seems ill-suited for early assessment in hospitals. Four models provided some usable elements for the development of a hospital-based model....

  7. Decision Gate Process for Assessment of a Technology Development Portfolio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohli, Rajiv; Fishman, Julianna; Hyatt, Mark

    2012-01-01

    The NASA Dust Management Project (DMP) was established to provide technologies (to TRL 6 development level) required to address adverse effects of lunar dust to humans and to exploration systems and equipment, which will reduce life cycle cost and risk, and will increase the probability of sustainable and successful lunar missions. The technology portfolio of DMP consisted of different categories of technologies whose final product is either a technology solution in itself, or one that contributes toward a dust mitigation strategy for a particular application. A Decision Gate Process (DGP) was developed to assess and validate the achievement and priority of the dust mitigation technologies as the technologies progress through the development cycle. The DGP was part of continuous technology assessment and was a critical element of DMP risk management. At the core of the process were technology-specific criteria developed to measure the success of each DMP technology in attaining the technology readiness levels assigned to each decision gate. The DGP accounts for both categories of technologies and qualifies the technology progression from technology development tasks to application areas. The process provided opportunities to validate performance, as well as to identify non-performance in time to adjust resources and direction. This paper describes the overall philosophy of the DGP and the methodology for implementation for DMP, and describes the method for defining the technology evaluation criteria. The process is illustrated by example of an application to a specific DMP technology.

  8. Methodology of constructive technology assessment in health care

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Douma, Kirsten F. L.; Karsenberg, Kim; Hummel, Marjan J. M.; Bueno-de-Mesquita, Jolien M.; van Harten, Wim H.

    2007-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Technologies in health care are evolving quickly, with new findings in the area of biotechnological and genetic research being published regularly. A health technology assessment (HTA) is often used to answer the question of whether the new technology should be implemented into clinical

  9. Beyond checklists: toward an ethical-constructive technology assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kiran, Asle; Oudshoorn, Nelly E.J.; Verbeek, Peter P.C.C.

    2015-01-01

    While many technology assessments (TAs) formally conducted by TA organizations in Europe and the USA have examined the implications of new technologies for ‘quantifiable risks’ regarding safety, health or the environment, they have largely ignored the ethical implications of those technologies.

  10. Methodology of constructive technology assessment in health care

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Douma, Kirsten F.L.; Hummel, J. Marjan; Karsenberg, Kim; van Harten, Willem H.; Bueno-de-Mesquita, Jolien M.

    2007-01-01

    Objectives: Technologies in health care are evolving quickly, with new findings in the area of biotechnological and genetic research being published regularly. A health technology assessment (HTA) is often used to answer the question of whether the new technology should be implemented into clinical

  11. A critical assessment of fuel cell technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindstroem, O.

    1994-01-01

    Cold combustion is a promised technology to mankind since the middle of the last century. The fuel cell may at last become the energy machine of the one to come after a long journey on a road bordered with expectations, successes and disappointments. Ten billion people will need the cell for their well-being. The progress and the state-of-art is assessed by means of figures of merit for performance, normalized to standard conditions, life and variability. State-of-art current densities for multi-kW stacks operating on atmospheric pressure air at 0.74 V cell voltage (50% efficiency, HHV) are estimated to be 150 mA/cm 2 for MCFC, 160 mA/cm 2 for AFC, 239 mA/cm 2 for PEFC and 270 mA/cm 2 for SOFC. PAFC gives 260 mA/cm 2 at 0.66 V and DMFC 100 mA/cm 2 at 0.37 V. Decay rates are about 1%/1000 h for PEFC, PAFC and SOFC compared to 2%/1000 h for AFC and 3%/1000 h for MCFC. Coefficients of variation for cell voltages amount to about 1% for all options, except for MCFC with 3-4%. Improvement of cell performance after 1975 is nil to moderate, except for SOFC with a consistent annual improvement of about 10%. There is room for further development of terrestrial AFCs towards 300-400 mA/cm 2 considering the figure 800 mA/cm 2 for oxygen AFCs. Life and cost will decide the future of the fuel cell. Prospects are not as good as they could be. The fuel cell community lacks understanding of the basics of fuel processing, as demonstrated by the widespread misbelief ('the CO 2 syndrome') that CO 2 cannot be removed cost effectively from a hydrogen feed (which is practiced in every NH 3 plant around the world). The competition, read the gas turbine, has to be taken very seriously. Emphasis has to be shifted from premature demonstrations to R and D on fundamental problems, which have been around too long. 34 refs

  12. The MST radar technique: Requirements for operational weather forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, M. F.

    1983-01-01

    There is a feeling that the accuracy of mesoscale forecasts for spatial scales of less than 1000 km and time scales of less than 12 hours can be improved significantly if resources are applied to the problem in an intensive effort over the next decade. Since the most dangerous and damaging types of weather occur at these scales, there are major advantages to be gained if such a program is successful. The interest in improving short term forecasting is evident. The technology at the present time is sufficiently developed, both in terms of new observing systems and the computing power to handle the observations, to warrant an intensive effort to improve stormscale forecasting. An assessment of the extent to which the so-called MST radar technique fulfills the requirements for an operational mesoscale observing network is reviewed and the extent to which improvements in various types of forecasting could be expected if such a network is put into operation are delineated.

  13. System of Systems Technology Readiness Assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Majumdar, WindyJoy S

    2007-01-01

    ...). In many cases, advanced technologies must be matured simultaneously by multiple systems to support the degree of interoperability and/or integration required Current DoD guidance with respect...

  14. Assessment of technology generating institutions in biotechnology ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    STORAGESEVER

    2009-05-18

    May 18, 2009 ... Key words: Biotechnology, innovation system, research institutions, universities and agricultural development programme. INTRODUCTION ... technology is the application of indigenous and / or scientific knowledge to the .... professionals, public attitude to genetic engineering organisms and products, and ...

  15. How to measure technology assessment: an introduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hasman, Arie

    2014-01-01

    This contribution introduces the Technology Acceptance model. Since information systems are still underutilized, application of models of user acceptance can provide important clues about what can be done to increase system usage

  16. Strategic Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    as a rebirth of long range planning, albeit with new methods and theories. Firms should make the building of strategic forecasting capability a priority. Research limitations/implications: The article subdivides strategic forecasting into three research avenues and suggests avenues for further research efforts......Purpose: The purpose of this article is to present an overview of the area of strategic forecasting and its research directions and to put forward some ideas for improving management decisions. Design/methodology/approach: This article is conceptual but also informed by the author’s long contact...... and collaboration with various business firms. It starts by presenting an overview of the area and argues that the area is as much a way of thinking as a toolbox of theories and methodologies. It then spells out a number of research directions and ideas for management. Findings: Strategic forecasting is seen...

  17. Exposure Forecaster

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Exposure Forecaster Database (ExpoCastDB) is EPA's database for aggregating chemical exposure information and can be used to help with chemical exposure...

  18. How to make participatory technology assessment in agriculture more 'participatory'

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tavella, Elena

    2016-01-01

    the cultivation of new GM plants in Denmark. Furthermore, through this illustration, the term Participatory Technology Assessment (PTA) is redefined, thereby suggesting two additional aspects to assessing new technologies – following and evaluating policy making – to be considered in the conduct of PTA....

  19. Participatory Technology and Constraints Assessment to Improve ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Beekeeping is a long-standing practice in the rural communities of Ethiopia and appears as ancient history of the country. A three–part assessment and diagnostic study (Livelihood systems assessment, integrated honeybee management needs assessment and diagnostic survey) was undertaken from 2006-2008 in Tigray, ...

  20. A Methodology for Integrated, Multiregional Life Cycle Assessment Scenarios under Large-Scale Technological Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibon, Thomas; Wood, Richard; Arvesen, Anders; Bergesen, Joseph D; Suh, Sangwon; Hertwich, Edgar G

    2015-09-15

    Climate change mitigation demands large-scale technological change on a global level and, if successfully implemented, will significantly affect how products and services are produced and consumed. In order to anticipate the life cycle environmental impacts of products under climate mitigation scenarios, we present the modeling framework of an integrated hybrid life cycle assessment model covering nine world regions. Life cycle assessment databases and multiregional input-output tables are adapted using forecasted changes in technology and resources up to 2050 under a 2 °C scenario. We call the result of this modeling "technology hybridized environmental-economic model with integrated scenarios" (THEMIS). As a case study, we apply THEMIS in an integrated environmental assessment of concentrating solar power. Life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions for this plant range from 33 to 95 g CO2 eq./kWh across different world regions in 2010, falling to 30-87 g CO2 eq./kWh in 2050. Using regional life cycle data yields insightful results. More generally, these results also highlight the need for systematic life cycle frameworks that capture the actual consequences and feedback effects of large-scale policies in the long term.

  1. Design and technology assessment of three lunar habitat concepts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hypes, Warren D.; Wright, Robert L.; Gould, Marston J.

    1992-01-01

    Three manned lunar habitat concepts, designed to support a crew of four for 28-30 days, are presented. Two concepts are based on Space Station Freedom structural elements and the third uses an earlier expandable-module-technology base. Technology readiness criteria, developed for assessing NASA sponsored developments, are applied to technology development needs for each concept to estimate the present level of technology readiness.

  2. Nonproliferation criteria for assessing civilian nuclear technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowen, H.S.

    1980-01-01

    Two trends are affecting the spread of nuclear weapons. One is the growing access to readily fissionable materials as a by-product of the spread of civilian nuclear technology. The second is the fact that many countries acquiring easier access also have an increased incentive to acquire nuclear explosives, or at least to shorten the lead time to them. Nonproliferation strategies might seek to influence the demand for nuclear explosives through improved alliance ties, regional security associations, and nuclear free zones, as well as the ease of access to explosives through agreement on increasing the difficulty of each access through changes in international agreements on technologies, or through a mix of such measures. The discussion focuses on a supply-oriented strategy, not because such a strategy by itself is likely to be optimal, but because it would be a significant component of a broad strategy, and it is the one that has been central to the nonproliferation efforts of the United States in the past several years. A supply-oriented strategy could have two components: 1. A set of incentives for choosing less dangerous nuclear systems instead of more dangerous ones (and in some cases the choosing of non-nuclear rather than nuclear technologies); 2. A set of political agreements restricting especially dangerous systems or components of systems. For such a strategy to have a prospect of being effective, it should encompass all the paths to a bomb from a legitimate safeguarded state. Specifically, it should include: 1. Paths starting from large plutonium reactors, including those labeled research reactors; 2. Isotope separation technologies; 3. Power-reactors-related paths, based on using either a. Material available at the front end, or b. Material available at the back end; and 4 Various possible future technologies, such as accelerator breeders or fusion-fission technology. Some illustrative cases are discussed

  3. Review on early technology assessments of nanotechnologies in oncology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Retèl, Valesca P; Hummel, Marjan J M; van Harten, Wim H

    2009-12-01

    Nanotechnology is expected to play an increasingly important role in the diagnostics, prognostics, and management of targeted cancer treatments. While papers have described promising results for nanotechnology in experimental settings, the translation of fundamental research into clinical applications has yet to be widely adopted. In future, policy makers will need to anticipate new developments for clinical implementation and introduce technology assessments. Here we present an overview of the literature on the technology assessments that have already been undertaken on early stage nanotechnology in cancer care, with particular emphasis placed on clinical efficacy, efficiency, logistics, patient-related features and technology dynamics. Owing to the current stage of development of most nanotechnologies, we found only a limited number of publications describing the application of either Health Technology Assessment (HTA) or Constructive Technology Assessment (CTA). In spite of the promising conclusions of most papers concerning the benefits of clinical implementation, actual clinically relevant applications were rarely encountered, and so far only a few publications report application of systematic forms of technology assessment. Most articles consider aspects of environmental safety, regulation and ethics, often mentioning the need to investigate such issues more thoroughly. Evaluation of financial and organizational aspects is often missing. In order to obtain a realistic perspective on the translation and implementation process there is a need for a broad and systematic evaluation of nanotechnologies at early stages of development. Assessment methods taking technology dynamics into account, such as Constructive Technology Assessment (CTA) should be considered for evaluation purposes.

  4. Technology development risk assessment and mixed interests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borrelli, G.; Sartori, S.

    1992-05-01

    The main purpose of this work is to demonstrate by means of a critical analysis of the state-of-the-art in technological and environmental risk analysis and decision making, that risk and environmental management decisions involve heterogeneous groups of social actors, each representing conflicting interests. It is argued that risk analyses should therefore be based on social interaction and communication paradigma, as well as, on a new rational way of thinking concerning the optimum choice of suitable technological development strategies leading towards a publicly acceptable balance between national energy-economic strategic necessities and social and individual perception of risk

  5. Innovative and Alternative Technology Assessment Manual

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1980-02-01

    This four chapter, six appendix manual presents the procedures and methodology as well as the baseline costs and energy information necessary for the analysis and evaluation of innovative and alternative technology applications submitted for federal grant assistance under the innovative and alternative technology provisions of the Clean Water Act of 1977. The manual clarifies and interprets the intent of Congress and the Environmental Protection Agency in carrying out the mandates of the innovative and alternative provisions of the Clean Water Act of 1977. [DJE 2005

  6. Assessing Intelligent Models in Forecasting Monthly Rainfall by Means of Teleconnection Patterns (Case Study: Khorasan Razavi Province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farzaneh Nazarieh

    2016-02-01

    the models, eighty percent of the data belonged to six stations. Mashhad, Golmakan, Sabzevar, Kashmar, Torbate and Sarakhs were used. Verification of the model was carried out in two parts. The first part of verification was done with twenty percent of the remaining data which belonged to the mentioned six stations. The second part of verification was done with data from the Nishapur station. Nishapur geographically is located between other stations and did not participate in the calibration. So, it provides a ondition for assessing models in location except for the calibration stations. To assess and compare the accuracy of the models, the following statistical criteria have been used: correlation coefficient (R, normal root mean square error (NRMSE, mean bias error (MBE, Jacovides criteria (t, and ratio (R2/t. To evaluate models in different rainfall depths, rainfall data based on standard precipitation index (SPI was divided into seven classes, and the accuracy of each class was calculated separately. Results and Discussion: By comparing the models' ability to predict rainfall according to the R2 /t criteria it can be concluded that the ranking of the models is Neuro-fuzzy model, Fuzzy Inference Systems, and Neural network, respectively. R2 /to criteria for prediction of rainfall one, two, and three month earlier in the Neuro-fuzzy model are 0.91, 0.4, 0.36, in Fuzzy Inference Systems are 0.76, 0.38, 0.31 and in the neural network model are 0.43,0.27, 0.2. The statistical criteria of Neuro-fuzzy model (R, MBE, NRMSE, t, R2/ t for rainfall forecasting one month earlier are 0.8, -0.55,0.43, 0.7 , 0.91; two months earlier are 0.79, -1.32, 0.48, 1.56, 0.4; and three months earlier are 0.73,-1.37, 0.54, 1.47, 0.36 . Calculation of MBE criteria for Neuro-fuzzy models in all classes of SPI indicated that this model has a lower estimate in extremely wet and very wet classes. This is because of lack of data belonging to these classes for model training. Conclusion: The

  7. Swedish Technology Teachers' Views on Assessing Student Understandings of Technological Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schooner, Patrick; Klasander, Claes; Hallström, Jonas

    2018-01-01

    Technology education is a new school subject in comparison with other subjects within the Swedish compulsory school system. Research in technology education shows that technology teachers lack experience of and support for assessment in comparison with the long-term experiences that other teachers use in their subjects. This becomes especially…

  8. Technology assessment and technology policy in Europe : New concepts, new goals, new infrastructures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smits, R.; Leyten, J.; Hertog, P. den

    1995-01-01

    Starting from the observation that the technological potentials are underutilized in economic and in social tems, this article raises the question of what role technology assessment (TA) can play in technology policy to address this problem. The causes of the problem of underutilization are analyzed

  9. Technology and democracy. Vol. 2. The use and impact of technology assessment in Europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-12-31

    A major theme of the Third European Congress on Technology assessment, ``Technology and Democracy`` was related to the question of how technology assessment may assist in the creation of a better foundation for decision-making when new technologies are introduced. The discussion, which involved politicians, researchers and representatives from industry, trade unions and various interest groups, focussed on how technology assessment can facilitate the creation of a dialogue between the parties involved in the decision-making processes. The Congress concluded in general, that as a result of the increasing complexity of our societies, the need for technology assessment to create the necessary multidimensional foundation for decision-making becomes more and more urgent. Such decisions will choose technologies with built-in opportunities and reduced risk factors. It was stated that ordinary people, if adequately informed, are able to form opinions on this. The involvement of citizens and the opening of a democratic debate put limits on the use of technology and heightens its acceptability, which results in an improvement of its quality and productivity. Technology assessment cases from all over Europe were presented. The workshop conclusions are included in Volume I. Volume II includes the papers form the Post-Congress workshop, ``Methods in Technology Assessment and Decision-making`` and the conclusions from the Post-Congress Workshop. (AB)

  10. Technology and democracy. Vol. 1. The use and impact of technology assessment in Europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-12-31

    A major theme of the Third European Congress on Technology Assessment, ``Technology and Democracy`` was related to the question of how technology assessment may assist in the creation of a better foundation for decision-making when new technologies are introduced. The discussion, which involved politicians, researchers and representatives from industry, trade unions and various interest groups, focussed on how technology assessment can facilitate the creation of a dialogue between the parties involved in the decision-making processes. The Congress concluded in general, that as a result of the increasing complexity of our societies, the need for technology assessment to create the necessary multidimensional foundation for decision-making becomes more and more urgent. Such decisions will chose technologies with built-in opportunities and reduced risk factors. It was stated, that ordinary people, if adequately informed, are able to form opinions on this. The involvement of citizens and the opening of a democratic debate put limits on the use of technology and heightens its acceptability, which result, in an improvement of its quality and productivity. Technology assessment cases from all over Europe were presented. The workshop conclusions are included in Volume I. Volume II includes the papers from the Post-Congress workshop, ``Methods in Technology Assessment and Decision-Making`` and the conclusions from the Post-Congress workshop. (AB)

  11. Assessment of University- Industry Collaboration and Technology ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Despite the cultural differences between university and industry, the mutual benefits from collaboration between university and industry have long been recognized in the advanced countries. Recently, the issue of technology transfer and collaboration between universities and industries has been receiving attention in the ...

  12. assessment of university- industry collaboration and technology ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ES Obe

    2013-07-02

    Jul 2, 2013 ... and ecommerce [3]. Technology transfer between industry and university come in different ways such as direct hires of students, graduates, temporary exchanges of researchers, university/faculty consultancies, joint research involving industry and academic scientists and engineers, industry-sponsored.

  13. Assessing information and communication technology in surgical ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2012-08-03

    Aug 3, 2012 ... c Federal Ministry of Health. Introduction. The Internet has enabled increasing numbers of healthcare professionals to access flexible, convenient and interactive forms of continuing medical education. The advantages of these computer-based technology tools are clear but they are expensive, may not be ...

  14. The Method for Assessing and Forecasting Value of Knowledge in SMEs – Research Results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justyna Patalas-Maliszewska

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Decisions by SMEs regarding knowledge development are made at a strategic level (Haas-Edersheim, 2007. Related to knowledge management are approaches to "measure" knowledge, where literature distinguishes between qualitative and quantitative methods of valuating intellectual capital. Although there is a quite range of such methods to build an intellectual capital reporting system, none of them is really widely recognized. This work presents a method enabling assessing the effectiveness of investing in human resources, taking into consideration existing methods. The method presented is focusing on SMEs (taking into consideration their importance for, especially, regional development. It consists of four parts: an SME reference model, an indicator matrix to assess investments into knowledge, innovation indicators, and the GMDH algorithm for decision making. The method presented is exemplified by a case study including 10 companies.

  15. Flood Risk Assessment and Forecasting for the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna River Basins

    OpenAIRE

    Young, William; Avasthi, Ankit; Priya, Satya; Hopson, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    The Ganges Basin in South Asia is home to some of the world's poorest and most vulnerable communities. Impacted by catastrophic annual floods, the region is recognized as highly disaster prone, causing widespread human suffering and economic losses. In recognition of these challenges, many groups are actively and cooperatively engaged in reducing South Asia's vulnerability to flooding. As a contribution to these efforts, the World Bank recently commissioned specialist teams to assess and map ...

  16. Weather Research and Forecasting model simulation of an onshore wind farm: assessment against LiDAR and SCADA data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santoni, Christian; Garcia-Cartagena, Edgardo J.; Zhan, Lu; Iungo, Giacomo Valerio; Leonardi, Stefano

    2017-11-01

    The integration of wind farm parameterizations into numerical weather prediction models is essential to study power production under realistic conditions. Nevertheless, recent models are unable to capture turbine wake interactions and, consequently, the mean kinetic energy entrainment, which are essential for the development of power optimization models. To address the study of wind turbine wake interaction, one-way nested mesoscale to large-eddy simulation (LES) were performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). The simulation contains five nested domains modeling the mesoscale wind on the entire North Texas Panhandle region to the microscale wind fluctuations and turbine wakes of a wind farm located at Panhandle, Texas. The wind speed, direction and boundary layer profile obtained from WRF were compared against measurements obtained with a sonic anemometer and light detection and ranging system located within the wind farm. Additionally, the power production were assessed against measurements obtained from the supervisory control and data acquisition system located in each turbine. Furthermore, to incorporate the turbines into very coarse LES, a modification to the implementation of the wind farm parameterization by Fitch et al. (2012) is proposed. This work was supported by the NSF, Grants No. 1243482 (WINDINSPIRE) and IIP 1362033 (WindSTAR), and TACC.

  17. 20 Years of Technology and Language Assessment in "Language Learning & Technology"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapelle, Carol A.; Voss, Erik

    2016-01-01

    This review article provides an analysis of the research from the last two decades on the theme of technology and second language assessment. Based on an examination of the assessment scholarship published in "Language Learning & Technology" since its launch in 1997, we analyzed the review articles, research articles, book reviews,…

  18. Superconducting Technology Assessment (NSA, Office of Corporate Assessments)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Networking and Information Technology Research and Development, Executive Office of the President — The government, and particularly NSA, has a continuing need for ever-increasing computational power. The Agency is concerned about projected limitations of...

  19. Knowledge/Data Mining, Assessment and Forecasting of Ground Military Vehicle Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-11

    to improve growth • Cigarette Filters  • Store water in mud pots to keep it cold, if no refrigeration • Mosquito nets to enable breathing 32 Chameleon ... Genetic Therapy M a i n s t r e a m o n l e v e l ) Moon Base Micro Machines Automated Highways Distributed Grid Desalinization Thought Power Cancer

  20. Quadrennial Technology Review 2015: Technology Assessments--Wind Power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    none,

    2015-10-07

    Wind power has become a mainstream power source in the U.S. electricity portfolio, supplying 4.9% of the nation’s electricity demand in 2014. With more than 65 GW installed across 39 states at the end of 2014, utility-scale wind power is a cost-effective source of low-emissions power generation throughout much of the nation. The United States has significant sustainable land-based and offshore wind resource potential, greater than 10 times current total U.S. electricity consumption. A technical wind resource assessment conducted by the Department of Energy (DOE) in 2009 estimated that the land-based wind energy potential for the contiguous United States is equivalent to 10,500 GW capacity at 80 meters (m) hub and 12,000 GW capacity at 100 meters (m) hub heights, assuming a capacity factor of at least 30%. A subsequent 2010 DOE report estimated the technical offshore wind energy potential to be 4,150 GW. The estimate was calculated from the total offshore area within 50 nautical miles of shore in areas where average annual wind speeds are at least 7 m per second at a hub height of 90 m.

  1. Adapting a Markov Monte Carlo simulation model for forecasting the number of Coronary Artery Revascularisation Procedures in an era of rapidly changing technology and policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Knuiman Matthew

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Treatments for coronary heart disease (CHD have evolved rapidly over the last 15 years with considerable change in the number and effectiveness of both medical and surgical treatments. This period has seen the rapid development and uptake of statin drugs and coronary artery revascularization procedures (CARPs that include Coronary Artery Bypass Graft procedures (CABGs and Percutaneous Coronary Interventions (PCIs. It is difficult in an era of such rapid change to accurately forecast requirements for treatment services such as CARPs. In a previous paper we have described and outlined the use of a Markov Monte Carlo simulation model for analyzing and predicting the requirements for CARPs for the population of Western Australia (Mannan et al, 2007. In this paper, we expand on the use of this model for forecasting CARPs in Western Australia with a focus on the lack of adequate performance of the (standard model for forecasting CARPs in a period during the mid 1990s when there were considerable changes to CARP technology and implementation policy and an exploration and demonstration of how the standard model may be adapted to achieve better performance. Methods Selected key CARP event model probabilities are modified based on information relating to changes in the effectiveness of CARPs from clinical trial evidence and an awareness of trends in policy and practice of CARPs. These modified model probabilities and the ones obtained by standard methods are used as inputs in our Markov simulation model. Results The projected numbers of CARPs in the population of Western Australia over 1995–99 only improve marginally when modifications to model probabilities are made to incorporate an increase in effectiveness of PCI procedures. However, the projected numbers improve substantially when, in addition, further modifications are incorporated that relate to the increased probability of a PCI procedure and the reduced probability of a CABG

  2. Adapting a Markov Monte Carlo simulation model for forecasting the number of coronary artery revascularisation procedures in an era of rapidly changing technology and policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mannan, Haider R; Knuiman, Matthew; Hobbs, Michael

    2008-06-25

    Treatments for coronary heart disease (CHD) have evolved rapidly over the last 15 years with considerable change in the number and effectiveness of both medical and surgical treatments. This period has seen the rapid development and uptake of statin drugs and coronary artery revascularization procedures (CARPs) that include Coronary Artery Bypass Graft procedures (CABGs) and Percutaneous Coronary Interventions (PCIs). It is difficult in an era of such rapid change to accurately forecast requirements for treatment services such as CARPs. In a previous paper we have described and outlined the use of a Markov Monte Carlo simulation model for analyzing and predicting the requirements for CARPs for the population of Western Australia (Mannan et al, 2007). In this paper, we expand on the use of this model for forecasting CARPs in Western Australia with a focus on the lack of adequate performance of the (standard) model for forecasting CARPs in a period during the mid 1990s when there were considerable changes to CARP technology and implementation policy and an exploration and demonstration of how the standard model may be adapted to achieve better performance. Selected key CARP event model probabilities are modified based on information relating to changes in the effectiveness of CARPs from clinical trial evidence and an awareness of trends in policy and practice of CARPs. These modified model probabilities and the ones obtained by standard methods are used as inputs in our Markov simulation model. The projected numbers of CARPs in the population of Western Australia over 1995-99 only improve marginally when modifications to model probabilities are made to incorporate an increase in effectiveness of PCI procedures. However, the projected numbers improve substantially when, in addition, further modifications are incorporated that relate to the increased probability of a PCI procedure and the reduced probability of a CABG procedure stemming from changed CARP preference

  3. Forecasting metal prices: Do forecasters herd?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pierdzioch, C.; Rulke, J. C.; Stadtmann, G.

    2013-01-01

    We analyze more than 20,000 forecasts of nine metal prices at four different forecast horizons. We document that forecasts are heterogeneous and report that anti-herding appears to be a source of this heterogeneity. Forecaster anti-herding reflects strategic interactions among forecasters...

  4. Radioactive scrap metal decontamination technology assessment report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buckentin, J.M.; Damkroger, B.K.; Schlienger, M.E.

    1996-04-01

    Within the DOE complex there exists a tremendous quantity of radioactive scrap metal. As an example, it is estimated that within the gaseous diffusion plants there exists in excess of 700,000 tons of contaminated stainless steel. At present, valuable material is being disposed of when it could be converted into a high quality product. Liquid metal processing represents a true recycling opportunity for this material. By applying the primary production processes towards the material's decontamination and re-use, the value of the strategic resource is maintained while drastically reducing the volume of material in need of burial. Potential processes for the liquid metal decontamination of radioactively contaminated metal are discussed and contrasted. Opportunities and technology development issues are identified and discussed. The processes compared are: surface decontamination; size reduction, packaging and burial; melting technologies; electric arc melting; plasma arc centrifugal treatment; air induction melting; vacuum induction melting; and vacuum induction melting and electroslag remelting

  5. Proliferation resistant technology assessment. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bandtel, K.C.; Chilton, P.D.; Daugherty, W.L.; McDonnel, J.L.

    1980-06-01

    The study investigates the incidental contribution to latent proliferation by the various elements of the peaceful nuclear power fuel cycle. The objective of the study was to develop a quantitative measure of this contribution. General proliferation issues were not studied. Two different procedures are used. The first makes use of the Bechtel Energy Supply Planning Model (ESPM) cost data base for energy facilities and yielded quantitative results in terms of dollar-related comparative values. The second procedure relied primarily on economic data from the United Nations International Standard Industrial Codes which was interpreted, based on a technical consideration of nuclear fuel cycle and nuclear weapons technology. The ESPM cost data was accepted in toto and used to illustrate the methodology. Not all cost items (e.g., purchase of expensive fabricated products needed for the operation and maintenance of a given facility) have any relationship to the technology transfer from the given facility.

  6. Rapid Technology Assessment Framework for Land Logistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-01

    WHO) • Communication and education efforts would become very important 9. Major geological/meteorolo gical event4 Not scored • Immediate loss of...techniques. A good overview of the epistemological underpinnings and general-level discussion of futurist works is provided by Inayatullah [23]. A...40] • Falling costs and barriers to technological innovation and reverse-engineering [4, 40] • Reduced investment in education , S&T and R&D in

  7. Quantile forecast discrimination ability and value

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ben Bouallègue, Zied; Pinson, Pierre; Friederichs, Petra

    2015-01-01

    While probabilistic forecast verification for categorical forecasts is well established, some of the existing concepts and methods have not found their equivalent for the case of continuous variables. New tools dedicated to the assessment of forecast discrimination ability and forecast value......-based discrimination tool and the quantile value plot translates forecast discrimination ability in terms of economic value. The relationship between the overall value of a quantile forecast and the respective quantile skill score is also discussed. The application of these new verification approaches and tools...

  8. Technology assessments in transportation: survey of recent literature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    LaBelle, S.J.

    1980-03-01

    A survey and an evaluation of recent studies of transportation systems done in a technology-assessment framework were undertaken as the basis for a detailed statement of work for a US Department of Energy technology assessment of transportation energy-conservation strategies. Several bibliographies were searched and numerous professionals in the field of technology assessment were contacted regarding current work. Detailed abstracts were prepared for studies judged to be sufficiently broad in coverage of impacts assessed, yet detailed in coverage of all or part of the nation's transportation systems. Some studies were rich in data but not comprehensive in their analytical approach; brief abstracts were prepared for these. An explanation of the criteria used to screen the studies, as well as abstracts of 37 reports, are provided in this compendium of transportation-technology-assessment literature.

  9. GIS Technology: Resource and Habitability Assessment Tool

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — We are applying Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to new orbital data sets for lunar resource assessment and the identification of past habitable environments on...

  10. Scientific method, adversarial system, and technology assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayo, L. H.

    1975-01-01

    A basic framework is provided for the consideration of the purposes and techniques of scientific method and adversarial systems. Similarities and differences in these two techniques of inquiry are considered with reference to their relevance in the performance of assessments.

  11. Defining the "proven technology" technical criterion in the reactor technology assessment for Malaysia's nuclear power program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anuar, Nuraslinda; Kahar, Wan Shakirah Wan Abdul; Manan, Jamal Abdul Nasir Abd

    2015-04-01

    Developing countries that are considering the deployment of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the near future need to perform reactor technology assessment (RTA) in order to select the most suitable reactor design. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported in the Common User Considerations (CUC) document that "proven technology" is one of the most important technical criteria for newcomer countries in performing the RTA. The qualitative description of five desired features for "proven technology" is relatively broad and only provides a general guideline to its characterization. This paper proposes a methodology to define the "proven technology" term according to a specific country's requirements using a three-stage evaluation process. The first evaluation stage screens the available technologies in the market against a predefined minimum Technology Readiness Level (TRL) derived as a condition based on national needs and policy objectives. The result is a list of technology options, which are then assessed in the second evaluation stage against quantitative definitions of CUC desired features for proven technology. The potential technology candidates produced from this evaluation is further narrowed down to obtain a list of proven technology candidates by assessing them against selected risk criteria and the established maximum allowable total score using a scoring matrix. The outcome of this methodology is the proven technology candidates selected using an accurate definition of "proven technology" that fulfills the policy objectives, national needs and risk, and country-specific CUC desired features of the country that performs this assessment. A simplified assessment for Malaysia is carried out to demonstrate and suggest the use of the proposed methodology. In this exercise, ABWR, AP1000, APR1400 and EPR designs assumed the top-ranks of proven technology candidates according to Malaysia's definition of "proven technology".

  12. Health technology assessment from a Canadian device industry perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrusi, Ilia L; Ames, David; Lim, Morgan E; Goeree, Ron

    2009-05-01

    Health technology assessment has significantly improved the decision-making process via the thorough and systematic evaluation of the clinical utility and cost-effectiveness of new drugs and health technologies. However, the device industry faces a significant challenge in meeting the evidentiary demands of the health technology assessment process, particularly given the small size of the Canadian market and device manufacturers. This is further compounded by the somewhat short-sighted nature of health care budgets, which see medical devices as a cost-driver given the sometimes significant upfront investment required to implement a technology producing downstream benefits in the long-term. Industry is the research and development of the health care system, but innovative development could be stifled unless the health technology assessment process recognizes the risk of manufacturers. The authors propose that health technology assessment can be improved by recognizing the challenges that device manufacturers face and by sharing the risk associated with evaluations of effectiveness. Health technology assessment is a powerful tool that can be used to evaluate new and potentially obsolete technologies alike, with the goal of meeting the needs of patients as customers of both the device industry and the health care system.

  13. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 23 Appendix V - Forecast Sea Ice Thickness

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-04-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  14. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 25 Appendix X - Forecast Sea Ice Age.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Shannon M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Walker, La Tonya Nicole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Roberts, Barry L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-05-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  15. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 27 Appendix Z - Forecast Ridging Rate.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  16. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 17 Appendix P - Forecast Soil Moisture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-04-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  17. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 15 Appendix N - Forecast Surface Runoff.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Shannon M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Walker, La Tonya Nicole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Roberts, Barry L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-05-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  18. History of the international societies in health technology assessment: International Society for Technology Assessment in Health Care and Health Technology Assessment International.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banta, David; Jonsson, Egon; Childs, Paul

    2009-07-01

    The International Society for Technology Assessment in Health Care (ISTAHC) was formed in 1985. It grew out of the increasing awareness of the international dimensions of health technology assessment (HTA) and the need for new communication methods at the international level. The main function of ISTAHC was to present an annual conference, which gradually grew in size, and also to generally improve in quality from to year. ISTAHC overextended itself financially early in the first decade of the 2000s and had to cease its existence. A new society, Health Technology Assessment international (HTAi), based on many of the same ideas and people, grew up beginning in the year 2003. The two societies have played a large role in making the field of HTA visible to people around the world and providing a forum for discussion on the methods and role of HTA.

  19. Bayesian flood forecasting methods: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Shasha; Coulibaly, Paulin

    2017-08-01

    Over the past few decades, floods have been seen as one of the most common and largely distributed natural disasters in the world. If floods could be accurately forecasted in advance, then their negative impacts could be greatly minimized. It is widely recognized that quantification and reduction of uncertainty associated with the hydrologic forecast is of great importance for flood estimation and rational decision making. Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) offers an ideal theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification that can be developed for probabilistic flood forecasting via any deterministic hydrologic model. It provides suitable theoretical structure, empirically validated models and reasonable analytic-numerical computation method, and can be developed into various Bayesian forecasting approaches. This paper presents a comprehensive review on Bayesian forecasting approaches applied in flood forecasting from 1999 till now. The review starts with an overview of fundamentals of BFS and recent advances in BFS, followed with BFS application in river stage forecasting and real-time flood forecasting, then move to a critical analysis by evaluating advantages and limitations of Bayesian forecasting methods and other predictive uncertainty assessment approaches in flood forecasting, and finally discusses the future research direction in Bayesian flood forecasting. Results show that the Bayesian flood forecasting approach is an effective and advanced way for flood estimation, it considers all sources of uncertainties and produces a predictive distribution of the river stage, river discharge or runoff, thus gives more accurate and reliable flood forecasts. Some emerging Bayesian forecasting methods (e.g. ensemble Bayesian forecasting system, Bayesian multi-model combination) were shown to overcome limitations of single model or fixed model weight and effectively reduce predictive uncertainty. In recent years, various Bayesian flood forecasting approaches have been

  20. Evaluation of official tropical cyclone track forecast over north Indian ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    information on overall forecast performance and the relative .... pret the track forecast properly and decide effec- tive cyclone management response actions by the disaster managers. To determine the COU in track forecast, it is essential to know the track forecast ..... ing 140 km based on the latest technology includ-.

  1. Assessment of Ga2O3 technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-09-15

    electronics application is the only driver for the technology at present. This type of electronics have a large commercial market , but there are...vol. 43, p. 7133, 2004. [119] A. J. Freeman, K. R. Poeppelmeier, T. O. Mason, R. P. H. Chang, and T. J. Marks, "Chemical and Thin-Film Strategies for...doped β-Ga2O3 single crystals," Applied Physics Letters, vol. 92, p. 201914, 2008. [138] R. A. Laudise, J. B. Mullin , B. Mutaftschiev, and K. Nassau

  2. Technology assessment of geothermal energy resource development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1975-04-15

    Geothermal state-of-the-art is described including geothermal resources, technology, and institutional, legal, and environmental considerations. The way geothermal energy may evolve in the United States is described; a series of plausible scenarios and the factors and policies which control the rate of growth of the resource are presented. The potential primary and higher order impacts of geothermal energy are explored, including effects on the economy and society, cities and dwellings, environmental, and on institutions affected by it. Numerical and methodological detail is included in appendices. (MHR)

  3. Are Key Principles for improved health technology assessment supported and used by health technology assessment organizations?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neumann, Peter J; Drummond, Michael F; Jönsson, Bengt; Luce, Bryan R; Schwartz, J Sanford; Siebert, Uwe; Sullivan, Sean D

    2010-01-01

    Previously, our group-the International Working Group for HTA Advancement-proposed a set of fifteen Key Principles that could be applied to health technology assessment (HTA) programs in different jurisdictions and across a range of organizations and perspectives. In this commentary, we investigate the extent to which these principles are supported and used by fourteen selected HTA organizations worldwide. We find that some principles are broadly supported: examples include being explicit about HTA goals and scope; considering a wide range of evidence and outcomes; and being unbiased and transparent. Other principles receive less widespread support: examples are addressing issues of generalizability and transferability; being transparent on the link between HTA findings and decision-making processes; considering a full societal perspective; and monitoring the implementation of HTA findings. The analysis also suggests a lack of consensus in the field about some principles--for example, considering a societal perspective. Our study highlights differences in the uptake of key principles for HTA and indicates considerable room for improvement for HTA organizations to adopt principles identified to reflect good HTA practices. Most HTA organizations espouse certain general concepts of good practice--for example, assessments should be unbiased and transparent. However, principles that require more intensive follow-up--for example, monitoring the implementation of HTA findings--have received little support and execution.

  4. Interactive Forecasting with the National Weather Service River Forecast System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, George F.; Page, Donna

    1993-01-01

    The National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) consists of several major hydrometeorologic subcomponents to model the physics of the flow of water through the hydrologic cycle. The entire NWSRFS currently runs in both mainframe and minicomputer environments, using command oriented text input to control the system computations. As computationally powerful and graphically sophisticated scientific workstations became available, the National Weather Service (NWS) recognized that a graphically based, interactive environment would enhance the accuracy and timeliness of NWS river and flood forecasts. Consequently, the operational forecasting portion of the NWSRFS has been ported to run under a UNIX operating system, with X windows as the display environment on a system of networked scientific workstations. In addition, the NWSRFS Interactive Forecast Program was developed to provide a graphical user interface to allow the forecaster to control NWSRFS program flow and to make adjustments to forecasts as necessary. The potential market for water resources forecasting is immense and largely untapped. Any private company able to market the river forecasting technologies currently developed by the NWS Office of Hydrology could provide benefits to many information users and profit from providing these services.

  5. Guidance on the Technology Performance Level (TPL) Assessment Methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weber, Jochem [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Roberts, Jesse D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Babarit, Aurelien [Ecole Centrale de Nantes (France). Lab. of Research in Hydrodynamics, Energetics and Atmospheric Environment (LHEEA); Costello, Ronan [Wave Venture, Penstraze (United Kingdom); Bull, Diana L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Neilson, Kim [Ramboll, Copenhagen (Denmark); Bittencourt, Claudio [DNV GL, London (United Kingdom); Kennedy, Ben [Wave Venture, Penstraze (United Kingdom); Malins, Robert Joseph [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Dykes, Katherine [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2016-09-01

    This document presents the revised Technology Performance Level (TPL) assessment methodology. There are three parts to this revised methodology 1) the Stakeholder Needs and Assessment Guidance (this document), 2) the Technical Submission form, 3) the TPL scoring spreadsheet. The TPL assessment is designed to give a technology neutral or agnostic assessment of any wave energy converter technology. The focus of the TPL is on the performance of the technology in meeting the customer’s needs. The original TPL is described in [1, 2] and those references also detail the critical differences in the nature of the TPL when compared to the more widely used technology readiness level (TRL). (Wave energy TRL is described in [3]). The revised TPL is particularly intended to be useful to investors and also to assist technology developers to conduct comprehensive assessments in a way that is meaningful and attractive to investors. The revised TPL assessment methodology has been derived through a structured Systems Engineering approach. This was a formal process which involved analyzing customer and stakeholder needs through the discipline of Systems Engineering. The results of the process confirmed the high level of completeness of the original methodology presented in [1] (as used in the Wave Energy Prize judging) and now add a significantly increased level of detail in the assessment and an improved more investment focused structure. The revised TPL also incorporates the feedback of the Wave Energy Prize judges.

  6. Earthquake forecasting and its verification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. R. Holliday

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available No proven method is currently available for the reliable short time prediction of earthquakes (minutes to months. However, it is possible to make probabilistic hazard assessments for earthquake risk. In this paper we discuss a new approach to earthquake forecasting based on a pattern informatics (PI method which quantifies temporal variations in seismicity. The output, which is based on an association of small earthquakes with future large earthquakes, is a map of areas in a seismogenic region ('hotspots'' where earthquakes are forecast to occur in a future 10-year time span. This approach has been successfully applied to California, to Japan, and on a worldwide basis. Because a sharp decision threshold is used, these forecasts are binary--an earthquake is forecast either to occur or to not occur. The standard approach to the evaluation of a binary forecast is the use of the relative (or receiver operating characteristic (ROC diagram, which is a more restrictive test and less subject to bias than maximum likelihood tests. To test our PI method, we made two types of retrospective forecasts for California. The first is the PI method and the second is a relative intensity (RI forecast based on the hypothesis that future large earthquakes will occur where most smaller earthquakes have occurred in the recent past. While both retrospective forecasts are for the ten year period 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2009, we performed an interim analysis 5 years into the forecast. The PI method out performs the RI method under most circumstances.

  7. Verification of ECMWF and ECMWF/MACC's global and direct irradiance forecasts with respect to solar electricity production forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Schroedter-Homscheidt

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The successful electricity grid integration of solar energy into day-ahead markets requires at least hourly resolved 48 h forecasts. Technologies as photovoltaics and non-concentrating solar thermal technologies make use of global horizontal irradiance (GHI forecasts, while all concentrating technologies both from the photovoltaic and the thermal sector require direct normal irradiances (DNI. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF has recently changed towards providing direct as well as global irradiances. Additionally, the MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition & Climate near-real time services provide daily analysis and forecasts of aerosol properties in preparation of the upcoming European Copernicus programme. The operational ECMWF/IFS (Integrated Forecast System forecast system will in the medium term profit from the Copernicus service aerosol forecasts. Therefore, within the MACC‑II project specific experiment runs were performed allowing for the assessment of the performance gain of these potential future capabilities. Also the potential impact of providing forecasts with hourly output resolution compared to three-hourly resolved forecasts is investigated. The inclusion of the new aerosol climatology in October 2003 improved both the GHI and DNI forecasts remarkably, while the change towards a new radiation scheme in 2007 only had minor and partly even unfavourable impacts on the performance indicators. For GHI, larger RMSE (root mean square error values are found for broken/overcast conditions than for scattered cloud fields. For DNI, the findings are opposite with larger RMSE values for scattered clouds compared to overcast/broken cloud situations. The introduction of direct irradiances as an output parameter in the operational IFS version has not resulted in a general performance improvement with respect to biases and RMSE compared to the widely used Skartveit et al. (1998 global to direct irradiance

  8. Technical Note: Initial assessment of a multi-method approach to spring-flood forecasting in Sweden

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsson, J.; Uvo, C. B.; Foster, K.; Yang, W.

    2016-02-01

    Hydropower is a major energy source in Sweden, and proper reservoir management prior to the spring-flood onset is crucial for optimal production. This requires accurate forecasts of the accumulated discharge in the spring-flood period (i.e. the spring-flood volume, SFV). Today's SFV forecasts are generated using a model-based climatological ensemble approach, where time series of precipitation and temperature from historical years are used to force a calibrated and initialized set-up of the HBV model. In this study, a number of new approaches to spring-flood forecasting that reflect the latest developments with respect to analysis and modelling on seasonal timescales are presented and evaluated. Three main approaches, represented by specific methods, are evaluated in SFV hindcasts for the Swedish river Vindelälven over a 10-year period with lead times between 0 and 4 months. In the first approach, historically analogue years with respect to the climate in the period preceding the spring flood are identified and used to compose a reduced ensemble. In the second, seasonal meteorological ensemble forecasts are used to drive the HBV model over the spring-flood period. In the third approach, statistical relationships between SFV and the large-sale atmospheric circulation are used to build forecast models. None of the new approaches consistently outperform the climatological ensemble approach, but for early forecasts improvements of up to 25 % are found. This potential is reasonably well realized in a multi-method system, which over all forecast dates reduced the error in SFV by ˜ 4 %. This improvement is limited but potentially significant for e.g. energy trading.

  9. Health Technology Assessment of Integrated Home Care

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Torben

    2012-01-01

    Background: The fragmented delivery of healthcare and social services as advanced by WHO 2002. Objectives: This project of international collaboration assesses integrated home care (IHC) for frail elder somatic patients as compared to usual hospital care. Methods: The HTA follows the special...

  10. Gender and risk assessment in contraceptive technologies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Kammen, Jessika; Oudshoorn, Nelly E.J.

    This paper concerns a comparison of risk assessment practices of contraceptives for women and men. Our analysis shows how the evaluation of health risks of contraceptives does not simply reflect the specific effects of chemical compounds in the human body. Rather, we show how side-effects were rated

  11. Emerging technologies for assessing HER2 amplification

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Penault-Llorca, Frédérique; Bilous, Michael; Dowsett, Mitch; Hanna, Wedad; Osamura, Robert Yoshiyuki; Rüschoff, Josef; van de Vijver, Marc

    2009-01-01

    Patients with human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 (HER2)+ breast cancer are eligible for trastuzumab treatment; therefore, accurate assessment of HER2 status is essential. Until recently, only 2 methods were validated for determining the HER2 status of breast tumors in the routine diagnostic

  12. Highly Integrated Model Assessment Technology and Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirnay-Dummer, Pablo; Ifenthaler, Dirk; Spector, J. Michael

    2010-01-01

    Effective and efficient measurement of the development of skill and knowledge, especially in domains of human activity that involve complex and challenging problems, is important with regard to workplace and academic performance. However, there has been little progress in the area of practical measurement and assessment, due in part to the lack of…

  13. Technology Development Risk Assessment for Space Transportation Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathias, Donovan L.; Godsell, Aga M.; Go, Susie

    2006-01-01

    A new approach for assessing development risk associated with technology development projects is presented. The method represents technology evolution in terms of sector-specific discrete development stages. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to generate development probability distributions based on statistical models of the discrete transitions. Development risk is derived from the resulting probability distributions and specific program requirements. Two sample cases are discussed to illustrate the approach, a single rocket engine development and a three-technology space transportation portfolio.

  14. Expanding Health Technology Assessments to Include Effects on the Environment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marsh, Kevin; Ganz, Michael Lee; Hsu, John

    2016-01-01

    for incorporating environmental impacts into the health technology assessment (HTA) process and discusses the associated challenges. Two arguments favor incorporating environmental impacts into HTA: 1) environmental changes could directly affect people's health and 2) policy decision makers have broad mandates...

  15. Assessing the impact of new technology on complex sociotechnical systems

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Oosthuizen, R

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available In complex sociotechnical systems, cognitive and social humans use technology to make sense of situations for decisions. These elements make sociotechnical systems difficult to develop. A modelling and assessment methodology for systems engineering...

  16. Constructive Technology Assessment and the Methodology of Insertion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rip, Arie; Robinson, Douglas K.R.; Doorn, Neelke; Schuurbiers, Daan; van der Poel, Ibo; Gorman, Michael E.

    2013-01-01

    Constructive Technology Assessment (CTA) started out (in the Netherlands in the late 1980s) as an attempt to broaden technology developments by including more aspects and more actors, and has been further positioned as a way to overcome the institutionalised division of labour between promotion and

  17. Technology needs assessment (TNA) resource document for South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Taviv, R

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available TNA(Technology needs assessment) is a requirement of Article 4.5 of the UNFCCC ‘Technology Transfer’ is a broad set of processes covering the flows of know-how, experience and equipment for mitigating or adapting to climate change amongst different...

  18. Lifecycle Assessment of Biofuel Production from Wood Pyrolysis Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manyele, S. V.

    2007-01-01

    Due to a stronger dependency on biomass for energy, there is a need for improved technologies in biomass-to-energy conversion in Tanzania. This paper presents a life cycle assessment (LCA) of pyrolysis technology used for conversion of wood and wood waste to liquid biofuel. In particular, a survey of environmental impacts of the process is…

  19. HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT, DELIBERATIVE PROCESS, AND ETHICALLY CONTESTED ISSUES

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Daniels, N.; Wilt, G.J. van der

    2016-01-01

    Healthcare technology assessment (HTA) aims to support decisions as to which technologies should be used in which situations to optimize value. Because such decisions will create winners and losers, they are bound to be controversial. HTA, then, faces a dilemma: should it stay away from such

  20. 1981 LTA technology assessment - Past and present

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashford, R. L.; Levitt, B. B.; Mayer, N. J.; Vocar, J. M.; Woodward, D. E.

    1981-01-01

    A four-part presentation is made of (1) lessons learned from the design and operation of the 'classic' airships of the 1920s and 30s, with respect to such issues as construction, propulsion, control, instrumentation, ground handling, habitability, aerodynamics, and structure and construction; (2) lessons learned from the development of such specialized lighter-than-air (LTA) concepts as metal-clad airships, semi-buoyant lifting bodies, experimental, sport and commercial free balloons, high-altitude platforms, and tethered aerostats; (3) the current status of LTA technology in various countries, with emphasis on significant developments in configuration, dynamics, control, structures, materials, and propulsion; and (4) a projection of future trends. It is concluded that socio-economic factors will strongly influence and encourage LTA development in the 1990s.

  1. The hydrogen technology assessment, phase 1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bain, Addison

    1991-01-01

    The purpose of this phase 1 report is to begin to form the information base of the economics and energy uses of hydrogen-related technologies on which the members of the National Hydrogen Association (NHA) can build a hydrogen vision of the future. The secondary goal of this report is the development of NHA positions on national research, development, and demonstration opportunities. The third goal, with the aid of the established hydrogen vision and NHA positions, is to evaluate ongoing federal research goals and activities. The evaluations will be performed in a manner that compares the costs associated with using systems that achieve those goals against the cost of performing those tasks today with fossil fuels. From this ongoing activity should emerge an NHA information base, one or more hydrogen visions of the future, and cost and performance targets for hydrogen applications to complete in the market place.

  2. Uncertainties in Forecasting Streamflow using Entropy Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, H.; Singh, V. P.

    2017-12-01

    Streamflow forecasting is essential in river restoration, reservoir operation, power generation, irrigation, navigation, and water management. However, there is always uncertainties accompanied in forecast, which may affect the forecasting results and lead to large variations. Therefore, uncertainties must be considered and be assessed properly when forecasting streamflow for water management. The aim of our work is to quantify the uncertainties involved in forecasting streamflow and provide reliable streamflow forecast. Despite that streamflow time series are stochastic, they exhibit seasonal and periodic patterns. Therefore, streamflow forecasting entails modeling seasonality, periodicity, and its correlation structure, and assessing uncertainties. This study applies entropy theory to forecast streamflow and measure uncertainties during the forecasting process. To apply entropy theory for streamflow forecasting, spectral analysis is combined to time series analysis, as spectral analysis can be employed to characterize patterns of streamflow variation and identify the periodicity of streamflow. That is, it permits to extract significant information for understanding the streamflow process and prediction thereof. Application of entropy theory for streamflow forecasting involves determination of spectral density, determination of parameters, and extension of autocorrelation function. The uncertainties brought by precipitation input, forecasting model and forecasted results are measured separately using entropy. With information theory, how these uncertainties transported and aggregated during these processes will be described.

  3. Assessing the readiness of hospice volunteers to utilize technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wittenberg-Lyles, Elaine; Shaunfield, Sara; Oliver, Debra Parker; Demiris, George; Schneider, Greg

    2012-09-01

    Although hospice volunteer programs contribute to patient care, little is known about their utilization and adaptation of technology. A survey was posted to the Hospice Volunteer Association Web site to assess technology use among volunteer coordinators and volunteers. Results revealed that participants have access to computers, Internet, and e-mail at the hospice agency and routinely use cellular phones and e-mail. Despite the use of technology, communication problems with volunteers hindered the coordinator's ability to manage scheduling, training, and volunteer assignments for patient care. Coordinators and volunteers felt comfortable utilizing technology but were less comfortable using technology in the patients' home. Several areas are identified for development and integration of advanced technology in volunteer programs. Future research is needed to ease technology implementation and increase volunteer acceptance.

  4. Technical and Technological Skills Assessment in Laparoscopic Surgery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Avril; Vincent, Charles

    2006-01-01

    Objectives: Surgical appraisal and revalidation are key components of good surgical practice and training. Assessing technical skills in a structured manner is still not widely used. Laparoscopic surgery also requires the surgeon to be competent in technological aspects of the operation. Methods: Checklists for generic, specific technical, and technological skills for laparoscopic cholecystectomies were constructed. Two surgeons with >12 years postgraduate surgical experience assessed each operation blindly and independently on DVD. The technological skills were assessed in the operating room. Results: One hundred operations were analyzed. Eight trainees and 10 consultant surgeons were recruited. No adverse events occurred due to technical or technological skills. Mean interrater reliability was kappa=0.88, P=technical and technological skills between trainee and consultant surgeons were significant, Mann-Whitney P=technical and technological skills can be measured to assess performance of laparoscopic surgeons. This technical and technological assessment tool for laparoscopic surgery seems to have face, content, concurrent, and construct validities and could be modified and applied to any laparoscopic operation. The tool has the possibility of being used in surgical training and appraisal. We aim to modify and apply this tool to advanced laparoscopic operations. PMID:17212881

  5. Technical and Technological Skills Assessment in Laparoscopic Surgery

    OpenAIRE

    Sarker, Sudip K.; Chang, Avril; Vincent, Charles

    2006-01-01

    Objectives: Surgical appraisal and revalidation are key components of good surgical practice and training. Assessing technical skills in a structured manner is still not widely used. Laparoscopic surgery also requires the surgeon to be competent in technological aspects of the operation. Methods: Checklists for generic, specific technical, and technological skills for laparoscopic cholecystectomies were constructed. Two surgeons with >12 years postgraduate surgical experience assessed each op...

  6. ASSESSING INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE ON INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION: A NEW MODEL

    OpenAIRE

    Diah Hari Suryaningrum

    2012-01-01

    This paper aims to propose a new model in assessing individual performance on information technology adoption. The new model to assess individual performance was derived from two different theories: decomposed theory of planned behavior and task-technology fit theory. Although many researchers have tried to expand these theories, some of their efforts might lack of theoretical assumptions. To overcome this problem and enhance the coherence of the integration, I used a theory from social scien...

  7. A Conceptual Methodology for Assessing Acquisition Requirements Robustness against Technology Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, Shuo-Ju

    2011-12-01

    -makers with the ability to assess or measure the robustness of program requirements against such uncertainties. A literature review of techniques for forecasting technology performance and development uncertainties and subsequent impacts on capability, budget, and schedule requirements resulted in the conclusion that an analysis process that coupled a probabilistic analysis technique such as Monte Carlo Simulations with quantitative and parametric models of technology performance impact and technology development time and cost requirements would allow the probabilities of meeting specific constraints of these requirements to be established. These probabilities of requirements success metrics can then be used as a quantitative and probabilistic measure of program requirements robustness against technology uncertainties. Combined with a Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm optimization process and computer-based Decision Support System, critical information regarding requirements robustness against technology uncertainties can be captured and quantified for acquisition decision-makers. This results in a more informed and justifiable selection of program technologies during initial program definition as well as formulation of program development and risk management strategies. To meet the stated research objective, the ENhanced TEchnology Robustness Prediction and RISk Evaluation (ENTERPRISE) methodology was formulated to provide a structured and transparent process for integrating these enabling techniques to provide a probabilistic and quantitative assessment of acquisition program requirements robustness against technology performance and development uncertainties. In order to demonstrate the capabilities of the ENTERPRISE method and test the research Hypotheses, an demonstration application of this method was performed on a notional program for acquiring the Carrier-based Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses (SEAD) using Unmanned Combat Aircraft Systems (UCAS) and their enabling

  8. Contact radiotherapy. Report of technological assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ortholan, Cecile; Melin, Nicole; Lee-Robin, Sun Hae; David, Denis Jean; Pages, Frederique; Devaud, Christine; Noel, Georges; Biga, Julie; Moty-Monnereau, Celine; Canet, Philippe; Lascols, Sylvie; Lamas, Muriel; Ramdine, Jessica; Tuil, Louise

    2008-10-01

    This report aims at assessing safety, indications, the role in therapeutic strategy, and efficiency of contact radiotherapy. It also aims at answering questions like: is the contact radiotherapy technique validated? What are the indications for contact radiotherapy? What about the efficiency and safety of contact radiotherapy? After a presentation of preliminary notions on radiotherapy (radiation types, dose, and irradiation techniques), the report presents this specific technique of contact radiotherapy: definition, devices, use recommendations, issues of radiation protection, modalities of performance of a contact radiotherapy session, and concerned pathologies. Then, based on a literature survey, this report addresses the various concerned tumours (skin, rectum, brain, breast), indicates some general information about these tumours (epidemiological data, anatomy and classification, therapeutic options, radiotherapy), and proposes an assessment of the efficiency and safety of contact radiotherapy

  9. Assessing the Performance of MODIS NDVI and EVI for Seasonal Crop Yield Forecasting at the Ecodistrict Scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louis Kouadio

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Crop yield forecasting plays a vital role in coping with the challenges of the impacts of climate change on agriculture. Improvements in the timeliness and accuracy of yield forecasting by incorporating near real-time remote sensing data and the use of sophisticated statistical methods can improve our capacity to respond effectively to these challenges. The objectives of this study were (i to investigate the use of derived vegetation indices for the yield forecasting of spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L. from the Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS at the ecodistrict scale across Western Canada with the Integrated Canadian Crop Yield Forecaster (ICCYF; and (ii to compare the ICCYF-model based forecasts and their accuracy across two spatial scales-the ecodistrict and Census Agricultural Region (CAR, namely in CAR with previously reported ICCYF weak performance. Ecodistricts are areas with distinct climate, soil, landscape and ecological aspects, whereas CARs are census-based/statistically-delineated areas. Agroclimate variables combined respectively with MODIS-NDVI and MODIS-EVI indices were used as inputs for the in-season yield forecasting of spring wheat during the 2000–2010 period. Regression models were built based on a procedure of a leave-one-year-out. The results showed that both agroclimate + MODIS-NDVI and agroclimate + MODIS-EVI performed equally well predicting spring wheat yield at the ECD scale. The mean absolute error percentages (MAPE of the models selected from both the two data sets ranged from 2% to 33% over the study period. The model efficiency index (MEI varied between −1.1 and 0.99 and −1.8 and 0.99, respectively for the agroclimate + MODIS-NDVI and agroclimate + MODIS-EVI data sets. Moreover, significant improvement in forecasting skill (with decreasing MAPE of 40% and 5 times increasing MEI, on average was obtained at the finer, ecodistrict spatial scale, compared to the coarser CAR scale. Forecast

  10. Assessment of Wearable Sensor Technologies for Biosurveillance

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-11-01

    include: textile -based wearable sensors, epidermal tattoos, DNA and protein sensors, forensic detection of explosives, remote environmental sensing...by changing the selectivity of the carbon electrodes . The device was built to assess a soldier’s health in the battlefield by continuously...tape, conductive gel, electrodes or bulky wiring. Embedded in a film that is thinner than a human hair, these electronic sensors muse van der Waal

  11. The conceptual and practical challenges to technology categorisation in the preparation of technology needs assessments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nygaard, Ivan; Hansen, Ulrich Elmer

    2015-01-01

    for the challenges in formulating plans of actions for technologies. If, due to a lack of conceptual clarity, it is not clear to countries whether the diffusion of a specific technology should be implemented by a project or by means of an enabling framework, the measures proposed in the action plans may......The strong focus in climate negotiations on the transfer and diffusion of technologies as ameans to mitigate and adapt to climate change has entailed various programs to promote the transfer and diffusion of climate technologies, including the Technology Needs Assessment project (TNA). Despite...... the technology focus in the project, practice shows that the questions of what a technology is and how the key concepts of technology transfer and diffusion should be understood and operationalized remain diffuse. This paper explores the reasons for this by analysing the experience of the TNA project in using...

  12. Technology assessment for Spaceship Two, space tourism, and private spaceflight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hancock, Randy

    A seven-step technology assessment was conducted to address questions regarding the significance and likely consequences associated with the introduction of Spaceship Two, space tourism, and private spaceflight. Impacts were assessed across four categories: the Role and Functions of Government, Private Industry Factors, Cultural and Societal Impacts, and the Time Frame in which these impacts were anticipated to occur. The technology assessment findings were compared to the results of expert interviews that addressed the sane four categories. The researcher noted that, while there was overwhelming agreement between the technology assessment's primary impacts and the expert interview responses, there were several differences. The technology assessment and interviewees agreed that the federal government would likely be both a regulator and user of private spaceflight. Both agreed that business partnerships would be key in pursuing private spaceflight. There was also consensus that, as market forces come to bear, ticket prices would drop and a larger market and broader passenger demographic would emerge. The technology assessment and experts agreed that an accident, especially one early in the industry's evolution, could be disastrous. Both agreed that private spaceflight can serve as a inspiration to students and be a positive influence in society, and both agreed that the start of passenger flights should take place in the 2010 - 2012 timeframe. Due to the potentially disastrous consequences of an accident, there was agreement between the technology assessment and experts on the value of flight and ground crew training, driven by insurance carriers and federal mandate. Most differences between the technology assessment's findings and the expert interview responses were due to omission, rather than direct disagreement. However, this was not the case in every instance. The most significant difference between the technology assessment and the experts involved the

  13. Framework for dementia Quality of Life assessment with Assistive Technology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Peterson, Carrie Beth; Prasad, Neeli R.; Prasad, Ramjee

    2010-01-01

    This paper proposes a theoretical framework for a Quality of Life (QOL) evaluation tool that is sensitive, flexible, computerized, and specific to assistive technology (AT) for dementia care. Using the appropriate evaluation tool serves to improve methodologies that are used for AT assessment......, enable the selection of appropriate methods, improve understanding of how health technology outcomes affect overall care, develop the competence of technology assessments by developing a more efficient procedure for assessment, and further computerized assessment use. One of the many challenges...... in determining functional definitions and indicators for QOL. Current QOL measures inspired recommendations for a future assessment tool in order to assist investigators and clinicians in selecting the optimal method for their needs. This paper provides a theoretical analysis focused on future applications...

  14. Space-reactor electric systems: subsystem technology assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, R.V.; Bost, D.; Determan, W.R.

    1983-01-01

    This report documents the subsystem technology assessment. For the purpose of this report, five subsystems were defined for a space reactor electric system, and the report is organized around these subsystems: reactor; shielding; primary heat transport; power conversion and processing; and heat rejection. The purpose of the assessment was to determine the current technology status and the technology potentials for different types of the five subsystems. The cost and schedule needed to develop these potentials were estimated, and sets of development-compatible subsystems were identified

  15. Space-reactor electric systems: subsystem technology assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, R.V.; Bost, D.; Determan, W.R.

    1983-03-29

    This report documents the subsystem technology assessment. For the purpose of this report, five subsystems were defined for a space reactor electric system, and the report is organized around these subsystems: reactor; shielding; primary heat transport; power conversion and processing; and heat rejection. The purpose of the assessment was to determine the current technology status and the technology potentials for different types of the five subsystems. The cost and schedule needed to develop these potentials were estimated, and sets of development-compatible subsystems were identified.

  16. Development of Advanced Life Cycle Costing Methods for Technology Benefit/Cost/Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yackovetsky, Robert (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The overall objective of this three-year grant is to provide NASA Langley's System Analysis Branch with improved affordability tools and methods based on probabilistic cost assessment techniques. In order to accomplish this objective, the Aerospace Systems Design Laboratory (ASDL) needs to pursue more detailed affordability, technology impact, and risk prediction methods and to demonstrate them on variety of advanced commercial transports. The affordability assessment, which is a cornerstone of ASDL methods, relies on the Aircraft Life Cycle Cost Analysis (ALCCA) program originally developed by NASA Ames Research Center and enhanced by ASDL. This grant proposed to improve ALCCA in support of the project objective by updating the research, design, test, and evaluation cost module, as well as the engine development cost module. Investigations into enhancements to ALCCA include improved engine development cost, process based costing, supportability cost, and system reliability with airline loss of revenue for system downtime. A probabilistic, stand-alone version of ALCCA/FLOPS will also be developed under this grant in order to capture the uncertainty involved in technology assessments. FLOPS (FLight Optimization System program) is an aircraft synthesis and sizing code developed by NASA Langley Research Center. This probabilistic version of the coupled program will be used within a Technology Impact Forecasting (TIF) method to determine what types of technologies would have to be infused in a system in order to meet customer requirements. A probabilistic analysis of the CER's (cost estimating relationships) within ALCCA will also be carried out under this contract in order to gain some insight as to the most influential costs and the impact that code fidelity could have on future RDS (Robust Design Simulation) studies.

  17. Methodology of constructive technology assessment in health care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douma, Kirsten F L; Karsenberg, Kim; Hummel, Marjan J M; Bueno-de-Mesquita, Jolien M; van Harten, Wim H

    2007-01-01

    Technologies in health care are evolving quickly, with new findings in the area of biotechnological and genetic research being published regularly. A health technology assessment (HTA) is often used to answer the question of whether the new technology should be implemented into clinical practice. International evidence confirms that the results of HTA research sometimes have limited impact on practical implementation and on coverage decisions; the study design is commonly based on the paradigm of stability of both the technology and the environment, which is often not the case. Constructive technology assessment (CTA) was first described in the 1980s. In addition to the traditional HTA elements, this approach also takes into account the technology dynamics by emphasizing sociodynamic processes. With a CTA approach, comprehensive assessment can be combined with an intentional influence in a favorable direction to improve quality. In this study, the methodological aspects mainly concerning the diagnostic use of CTA are explained. The methodology will be illustrated using the controlled introduction of a new technology, called microarray analysis, into the clinical practice of breast cancer treatment as a case study. Attention is paid to the operationalization of the phases of development and implementation and the research methods most appropriate for CTA. In addition to HTA, CTA can be used as a complementary approach, especially in technologies that are introduced in an early stage of development in a controlled way.

  18. Elaboration and validation of an assistive technology assessment questionnaire

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernanda Jorge Guimarães

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Assistive Technologies consists of resources, methods, and strategies favoring autonomy and inclusion of elderly and people with disabilities, being scarce in the literature instruments assessing them. A methodology study conducted with a panel of specialists and people with visual impairment, aimed to elaborate and validate a questionnaire to assess educational assistive technology. To consider an item as valid, we used 80% as agreement percentage, and validity and reliability of the questionnaire were calculated. Assistive Technology was characterized in six attributes: objectives, access, clarity, structure and presentation, relevance and efficacy, interactivity, and 19 items were elaborated to compose the questionnaire. From those, 11 obtained percentages higher than 80%, seven were modified and one was excluded. The instrument Cronbach’s alpha was 0,822, guaranteeing validity and reliability of the tool to assess health education Assistive Technology, and therefore, its use is indicated.

  19. Noninvasive imaging technologies for cutaneous wound assessment: A review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, Dereck W; Ghassemi, Pejhman; Ramella-Roman, Jessica C; Prindeze, Nicholas J; Moffatt, Lauren T; Alkhalil, Abdulnaser; Shupp, Jeffrey W

    2015-01-01

    The ability to phenotype wounds for the purposes of assessing severity, healing potential and treatment is an important function of evidence-based medicine. A variety of optical technologies are currently in development for noninvasive wound assessment. To varying extents, these optical technologies have the potential to supplement traditional clinical wound evaluation and research, by providing detailed information regarding skin components imperceptible to visual inspection. These assessments are achieved through quantitative optical analysis of tissue characteristics including blood flow, collagen remodeling, hemoglobin content, inflammation, temperature, vascular structure, and water content. Technologies that have, to this date, been applied to wound assessment include: near infrared imaging, thermal imaging, optical coherence tomography, orthogonal polarization spectral imaging, fluorescence imaging, laser Doppler imaging, microscopy, spatial frequency domain imaging, photoacoustic detection, and spectral/hyperspectral imaging. We present a review of the technologies in use or development for these purposes with three aims: (1) providing basic explanations of imaging technology concepts, (2) reviewing the wound imaging literature, and (3) providing insight into areas for further application and exploration. Noninvasive imaging is a promising advancement in wound assessment and all technologies require further validation. © 2015 by the Wound Healing Society.

  20. Using inferred probabilities to measure the accuracy of imprecise forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Lehner

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Research on forecasting is effectively limited to forecasts that are expressed with clarity; which is to say that the forecasted event must be sufficiently well-defined so that it can be clearly resolved whether or not the event occurred and forecasts certainties are expressed as quantitative probabilities. When forecasts are expressed with clarity, then quantitative measures (scoring rules, calibration, discrimination, etc. can be used to measure forecast accuracy, which in turn can be used to measure the comparative accuracy of different forecasting methods. Unfortunately most real world forecasts are not expressed clearly. This lack of clarity extends to both the description of the forecast event and to the use of vague language to express forecast certainty. It is thus difficult to assess the accuracy of most real world forecasts, and consequently the accuracy the methods used to generate real world forecasts. This paper addresses this deficiency by presenting an approach to measuring the accuracy of imprecise real world forecasts using the same quantitative metrics routinely used to measure the accuracy of well-defined forecasts. To demonstrate applicability, the Inferred Probability Method is applied to measure the accuracy of forecasts in fourteen documents examining complex political domains. Key words: inferred probability, imputed probability, judgment-based forecasting, forecast accuracy, imprecise forecasts, political forecasting, verbal probability, probability calibration.

  1. Improving pest risk assessment and management through the aid of geospatial information technology standards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trond Rafoss

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Delivery of geospatial information over the Internet for the management of risks from invasive alien species is an increasingly important service. The evolution of information technology standards for geospatial data is a key factor to simplify network publishing and exchange of maps and data. The World Wide Web Consortium (W3C-geolocation specification is a recent addition that may prove useful for pest risk management. In this article we implement the W3C-geolocation specification and Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC mapping standards in a Web browser application for smartphones and tablet computers to improve field surveys for alien invasive species. We report our first season field experiences using this tool for online mapping of plant disease outbreaks and host plant occurrence. It is expected that the improved field data collection tools will result in increased data availability and thereby new opportunities for risk assessment, because data-needs and availability are crucial for species distribution modelling and model-based forecasts of pest establishment potential. Finally, we close with a comment on the future potential of geospatial information standards to enhance the translation from data to decisions regarding pest risks, which should enable earlier detection of emerging risks as well as more robust projections of pest risks in novel areas. The forthcoming standard for processing of geospatial information, the Web Processing Standard (WPS, should open new technological capabilities both for automatic initiation and updating of risk assessment models based on new incoming data, and subsequent early warning.

  2. Effect of advanced aircraft noise reduction technology on the 1990 projected noise environment around Patrick Henry Airport. [development of noise exposure forecast contours for projected traffic volume and aircraft types

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cawthorn, J. M.; Brown, C. G.

    1974-01-01

    A study has been conducted of the future noise environment of Patric Henry Airport and its neighboring communities projected for the year 1990. An assessment was made of the impact of advanced noise reduction technologies which are currently being considered. These advanced technologies include a two-segment landing approach procedure and aircraft hardware modifications or retrofits which would add sound absorbent material in the nacelles of the engines or which would replace the present two- and three-stage fans with a single-stage fan of larger diameter. Noise Exposure Forecast (NEF) contours were computed for the baseline (nonretrofitted) aircraft for the projected traffic volume and fleet mix for the year 1990. These NEF contours are presented along with contours for a variety of retrofit options. Comparisons of the baseline with the noise reduction options are given in terms of total land area exposed to 30 and 40 NEF levels. Results are also presented of the effects on noise exposure area of the total number of daily operations.

  3. Technology Enhanced Formative Assessment for 21st Century Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spector, J. Michael; Ifenthaler, Dirk; Sampson, Demetrios; Yang, Lan; Mukama, Evode; Warusavitarana, Amali; Dona, Kulari Lokuge; Eichhorn, Koos; Fluck, Andrew; Huang, Ronghuai; Bridges, Susan; Lu, Jiingyan; Ren, Youqun; Gui, Xiaoqing; Deneen, Christopher C.; San Diego, Jonathan; Gibson, David C.

    2016-01-01

    This paper is based on the deliberations of the Assessment Working Group at EDUsummIT 2015 in Bangkok, Thailand. All of the members of Thematic Working Group 5 (TWG5) have contributed to this synthesis of potentials, concerns and issues with regard to the role of technology in assessment as, for and of learning in the 21st century. The group…

  4. Technologies for Interactive Learning and Assessment Content Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gusev, Marjan; Ristov, Sasko; Armenski, Goce

    2016-01-01

    Recent technology trends evolved the student assessment from traditional ones ("pen-and-paper" and "face-to-face") to modern e-Assessment system. These modern approaches allow the teachers to conduct and evaluate an exam with huge number of students in a short period of time. Even more important, both the teacher and the…

  5. Utilisation of medical technology assessment in health policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Heuvel, WJA; Wieringh, R; van den Heuvel, LPM

    1997-01-01

    Objective: To assess the contribution of medical technology assessment (MTA) to health policy decision making, the question has to be answered whether MTA is actually being used in decision-making processes and what factors are related to its utilisation. Design: We investigated recent Dutch policy

  6. Harnessing Technology to Assess Oral Communication in Business English

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, Tal; Gertler, Hedy

    2015-01-01

    Assessing oral skills in relatively large Business English classes seems a most formidable task for any teacher. How does one make sure to get multiple and valid assessments of each student? This action research paper provides supporting evidence for the correlation between the use of technology and students' engagement. This was achieved by…

  7. INTEGRATION OF FRACTAL AND NEURAL NETWORK TECHNOLOGIES IN PEDAGOGICAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT OF KNOWLEDGE OF TRAINEES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Svetlana N Dvoryatkina

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The possibility of statement and solution of the problem of searching of theoretical justification and development of efficient didactic mechanisms of the organization of process of pedagogical monitoring and assessment of level of knowledge of trainees can be based on convergence of the leading psychological and pedagogical, mathematical, and informational technologies with accounting of the modern achievements in science. In the article, the pedagogical expediency of realization of opportunities of means of informational technologies in monitoring and assessment of the composite mathematical knowledge, in the management of cognitive activity of students is proved. The ability to integrate fractal methods and neural network technologies in perfecting of a system of pedagogical monitoring of mathematical knowledge of trainees as a part of the automated training systems (ATS is investigated and realized in practice. It is proved that fractal methods increase the accuracy and depth of estimation of the level of proficiency of students and also complexes of intellectual operations of the integrative qualities allowing to master and apply cross-disciplinary knowledge and abilities in professional activity. Neural network technologies solve a problem of realization of the personal focused tutoring from positions of optimum individualization of mathematical education and self-realization of the person. The technology of projection of integrative system of pedagogical monitoring of knowledge of students includes the following stages: establishment of the required tutoring parameters; definition and preparation of input data for realization of integration of fractal and neural network technologies; development of the diagnostic module as a part of the block of an artificial intelligence of ATS, filling of the databases structured by system; start of system for obtaining the forecast. In development of the integrative automated system of pedagogical

  8. Gulf of Mexico Ecological Forecasting - Atlantic Bluefin Tuna Population Assessment and Management using Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laygo, K.; Jones, I.; Huerta, J.; Holt, B.

    2010-12-01

    Atlantic Bluefin Tuna (Thunnus thynnus) is one of the largest vertebrates in the world and is in high demand in sushi markets. It is a highly political species and is managed internationally by the International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tuna. The Gulf of Mexico and the Mediterranean Sea are the only two known spawning sites in the world. However, there is a large variance in estimates of adult Atlantic Tuna spawning. This research focuses on extending Earth science research results to existing decision-making systems, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS)for population assessment and management of Atlantic Bluefin Tuna. The research team is a multi-sector and multi-disciplinary team composed of government (NOAA_NMFS), academic (University of South Florida Institute for Marine Remote Sensing) and commercial (Roffer’s Ocean Fishing Forecasting Service, Inc.) institutions. Their goal is to reduce the variance in the estimates of adult Bluefin Tuna spawning stock abundance in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). Therefore, this paper will be derived from the innovative use of several earth orbiting satellites focusing on the use of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data to identify Sargassum, which is a floating marine algae that may be relevant to the presence of Bluefin Tuna aggregations. The SAR imagery will be examined in combination with MODIS and MERIS Chlorophyll-a products to detect fine-scale surface current shear, eddy and frontal features, as well as biological slicks due to the presence of Sargassum. In addition, wind records from NOAA buoy data will be studied to analyze wind patterns in the Gulf of Mexico. The fine-resolution, all-weather capabilities of SAR provide a valuable complement to optical/IR sensors, which are often impacted by cloud cover. This study will provide an assessment of whether or not SAR can contribute to decision support efforts relevant to commercial fisheries

  9. The principles of Health Technology Assessment in laboratory medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liguori, Giorgio; Belfiore, Patrizia; D'Amora, Maurizio; Liguori, Renato; Plebani, Mario

    2017-01-01

    The Health Technology Assessment (HTA) is a multi-professional and multidisciplinary evaluation approach designed to assess health technology in the broadest sense of the term, from its instruments to the rearranging of its organizational structures. It is by now an established methodology at national and international levels that involves several medical disciplines thanks to its versatility. Laboratory medicine is one of these disciplines. Such specialization was subjected, in recent years, to deep changes even from an organizational standpoint, in order to meet the health needs of the population, making them as effective and cost-effective as possible. In this regard, HTA was the tool used to assess implications in different areas.

  10. Improving tag/seal technologies: the vulnerability assessment component

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, J.L.

    1996-01-01

    The Department of Energy (DOE), specifically the Office of Nonproliferation and National Security, has sponsored the development of numerous tag and seal technologies for high-security/high-valued applications. One important component in this technology development effort has been the continuous integration of vulnerability assessments. The Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) has been the lead laboratory for vulnerability assessments of fiber-optic-based tag/seal technologies. This paper presents a brief historical overview and the current status of the DOE high-security tag/seal development program and discusses INEL's adversarial role and assessment philosophy. Verification testing criteria used to define ''successful'' tampering attempts/attacks are discussed. Finally, the advantages of integrating a vulnerability assessment into the development of commercial security tag/seals are presented

  11. Energy and the environment: Technology assessment and policy options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silveira, M.P.W.

    1990-01-01

    While the energy crisis of the 1970s stimulated technological innovation in developed countries, it often had the opposite effect in the third world. However, developing countries can be considered to have two types of energy systems: ''connected'' and ''disconnected''. The connected system is affected by changes in the price of commercial energy, but the disconnected system is usually rural and remote. Commercial forms of energy may be needed in the disconnected system, but they are largely unavailable. In some of the developing countries, new energy technologies have therefore been developed which adapt traditional technologies still existing in the disconnected sector. In this article some of the work of the United National Centre for Science and Technology for Development is described. Through its ATAS (Advance Technology Alert System) programme, international and regional workshops are held to discuss policy questions arising in regard to new technologies and developments. Workshops have been held in Moscow on new energy technologies in the industry subsystem (connected), in Guatemala City on new energy technologies and the disconnected system, and in Ottawa on new energy technologies, transportation and development. Initial assessments made by or through these workshops are outlined here. A fourth workshop will be held in June 1990 in Saarbrucken on energy technologies and climate change. (author). 3 figs

  12. Multi-Annual Climate Predictions for Fisheries: An Assessment of Skill of Sea Surface Temperature Forecasts for Large Marine Ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Desiree Tommasi

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Decisions made by fishers and fisheries managers are informed by climate and fisheries observations that now often span more than 50 years. Multi-annual climate forecasts could further inform such decisions if they were skillful in predicting future conditions relative to the 50-year scope of past variability. We demonstrate that an existing multi-annual prediction system skillfully forecasts the probability of next year, the next 1–3 years, and the next 1–10 years being warmer or cooler than the 50-year average at the surface in coastal ecosystems. Probabilistic forecasts of upper and lower seas surface temperature (SST terciles over the next 3 or 10 years from the GFDL CM 2.1 10-member ensemble global prediction system showed significant improvements in skill over the use of a 50-year climatology for most Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs in the North Atlantic, the western Pacific, and Indian oceans. Through a comparison of the forecast skill of initialized and uninitialized hindcasts, we demonstrate that this skill is largely due to the predictable signature of radiative forcing changes over the 50-year timescale rather than prediction of evolving modes of climate variability. North Atlantic LMEs stood out as the only coastal regions where initialization significantly contributed to SST prediction skill at the 1 to 10 year scale.

  13. Forecasting resource-allocation decisions under climate uncertainty: fire suppression with assessment of net benefits of research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Geoffrey H. Donovan

    2008-01-01

    Making input decisions under climate uncertainty often involves two-stage methods that use expensive and opaque transfer functions. This article describes an alternative, single-stage approach to such decisions using forecasting methods. The example shown is for preseason fire suppression resource contracting decisions faced by the United States Forest Service. Two-...

  14. Assessing Seasonal Climate Forecasts over Africa to Support Decision-Making : Bridging Science and Policy Implication for Managing Climate Extremes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wanders, Niko|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/364253940; Wood, Eric F.

    2018-01-01

    Recent drought events like in the 2011 Horn of Africa and the ongoing drought in California have an enormous impact on nature and society. Reliable seasonal weather outlooks are critical for drought management and other applications like, crop modelling, flood forecasting and planning of reservoir

  15. Funding of energy research: BMFT expenditures for energy research and energy technologies, 3rd program, a review and a forecast

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacke, S.

    1990-01-01

    Between the early sixties and late 1989, the German Federal Government spent some DM 23 billion to support research and development of the entire field of nuclear technology (such as fundamental research, industrial applications, medicine, safety technology, advanced energy systems) in the Federal Republic of Germany. Of this amount, approx. DM 11 billion was spent on the technology of nuclear power plants equipped with light water reactors, on safety research, and on the nuclear fuel cycle. Comparing the expenditures of the Federal Government for the conversion of nuclear power into electricity with the savings achieved in electricity generating costs of approx. DM 58 billion by late 1989 (the cost advantage of nuclear power being approx. Pf 5/kWh), one arrives at a cost advantage to the whole economy of approx. DM 47 billion by the date shown above; by the year 2000, this advantage will have risen to some DM 150 billion. (orig.) [de

  16. Technological and life cycle assessment of organics processing odour control technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bindra, Navin; Dubey, Brajesh; Dutta, Animesh

    2015-01-01

    As more municipalities and communities across developed world look towards implementing organic waste management programmes or upgrading existing ones, composting facilities are emerging as a popular choice. However, odour from these facilities continues to be one of the most important concerns in terms of cost & effective mitigation. This paper provides a technological and life cycle assessment of some of the different odour control technologies and treatment methods that can be implemented in organics processing facilities. The technological assessment compared biofilters, packed tower wet scrubbers, fine mist wet scrubbers, activated carbon adsorption, thermal oxidization, oxidization chemicals and masking agents. The technologies/treatment methods were evaluated and compared based on a variety of operational, usage and cost parameters. Based on the technological assessment it was found that, biofilters and packed bed wet scrubbers are the most applicable odour control technologies for use in organics processing faculties. A life cycle assessment was then done to compare the environmental impacts of the packed-bed wet scrubber system, organic (wood-chip media) bio-filter and inorganic (synthetic media) bio-filter systems. Twelve impact categories were assessed; cumulative energy demand (CED), climate change, human toxicity, photochemical oxidant formation, metal depletion, fossil depletion, terrestrial acidification, freshwater eutrophication, marine eutrophication, terrestrial eco-toxicity, freshwater eco-toxicity and marine eco-toxicity. The results showed that for all impact categories the synthetic media biofilter had the highest environmental impact, followed by the wood chip media bio-filter system. The packed-bed system had the lowest environmental impact for all categories. - Highlights: • Assessment of odour control technologies for organics processing facilities. • Comparative life cycle assessment of three odour control technologies was conducted

  17. Technological and life cycle assessment of organics processing odour control technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bindra, Navin [School of Engineering, University of Guelph, 50 Stone Road East, Guelph, Ontario N1G2W1 (Canada); Dubey, Brajesh, E-mail: bkdubey@civil.iitkgp.ernet.in [School of Engineering, University of Guelph, 50 Stone Road East, Guelph, Ontario N1G2W1 (Canada); Environmental Engineering Division, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur, West Bengal 721302 (India); Dutta, Animesh [School of Engineering, University of Guelph, 50 Stone Road East, Guelph, Ontario N1G2W1 (Canada)

    2015-09-15

    As more municipalities and communities across developed world look towards implementing organic waste management programmes or upgrading existing ones, composting facilities are emerging as a popular choice. However, odour from these facilities continues to be one of the most important concerns in terms of cost & effective mitigation. This paper provides a technological and life cycle assessment of some of the different odour control technologies and treatment methods that can be implemented in organics processing facilities. The technological assessment compared biofilters, packed tower wet scrubbers, fine mist wet scrubbers, activated carbon adsorption, thermal oxidization, oxidization chemicals and masking agents. The technologies/treatment methods were evaluated and compared based on a variety of operational, usage and cost parameters. Based on the technological assessment it was found that, biofilters and packed bed wet scrubbers are the most applicable odour control technologies for use in organics processing faculties. A life cycle assessment was then done to compare the environmental impacts of the packed-bed wet scrubber system, organic (wood-chip media) bio-filter and inorganic (synthetic media) bio-filter systems. Twelve impact categories were assessed; cumulative energy demand (CED), climate change, human toxicity, photochemical oxidant formation, metal depletion, fossil depletion, terrestrial acidification, freshwater eutrophication, marine eutrophication, terrestrial eco-toxicity, freshwater eco-toxicity and marine eco-toxicity. The results showed that for all impact categories the synthetic media biofilter had the highest environmental impact, followed by the wood chip media bio-filter system. The packed-bed system had the lowest environmental impact for all categories. - Highlights: • Assessment of odour control technologies for organics processing facilities. • Comparative life cycle assessment of three odour control technologies was conducted

  18. Technological Implications for Assessment Ecosystems: Opportunities for Digital Technology to Advance Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behrens, John T.; DiCerbo, Kristen E.

    2014-01-01

    Background: It would be easy to think the technological shifts in the digital revolution are simple incremental progressions in societal advancement. However, the nature of digital technology is resulting in qualitative differences in nearly all parts of daily life. Purpose: This paper investigates how the new possibilities for understanding,…

  19. ASSESSMENT OF ORGANIZATIONAL AND TECHNOLOGICAL RELIABILITY OF INDUSTRIAL CONSTRUCTION ENTERPRISES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gazaryan Robert Kamoevich

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available In this article, the procedure of identification of organizational and technological reliability is described. This methodology is applicable both to separate functional areas and to all industrial enterprises. Its objective is to assess the expediency of reorganization. The objective of this scientific research is the substantiation of reorganization of an industrial enterprise. Multivariable models, or convolutions, were used as research methods. According to the RF law, industrial enterprises are divided into four functional areas, each of which is assessed on the basis of multiple criteria. Assessment of organizational and technological reliability requires a multi-parameter model. Its axes correspond to the number of evaluation criteria. The set of criteria designated for the assessment of organizational and technological reliability is identified on the basis of the homogeneity of trend indicators designated for centripetal and centrifugal models. The axes of a multi-parameter model represent real and benchmark values. The unit serves as the benchmark value; it is the maximal value of this parameter. The formula based on average values shall be used to determine the total value of the above parameters. The authors have also generated a model of organizational and technological reliability of industrial enterprises. It is noteworthy that assessment of organizational and technological reliability of an industrial enterprise requires a concentric multi-layer model developed through the application of the convolution method.

  20. Hospital Based Health Technology Assessment: an example from Siena

    OpenAIRE

    Pietro Manzi; Pietro Barberini; Fabrizio Dori

    2015-01-01

    The Health Technology Assessment (HTA) has emerged in recent years as a useful tool in healthcare decision-making. It is a multidisciplinary process that summarizes information about the medical, social, economic and ethical issues related to the use of a health technology and provides evidence-based information on how to allocate resources. The experience of Siena University Hospital is an example of multidisciplinary hospital-based HTA. In the present paper we summarize the organization of ...

  1. Health Monitoring System Technology Assessments: Cost Benefits Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kent, Renee M.; Murphy, Dennis A.

    2000-01-01

    The subject of sensor-based structural health monitoring is very diverse and encompasses a wide range of activities including initiatives and innovations involving the development of advanced sensor, signal processing, data analysis, and actuation and control technologies. In addition, it embraces the consideration of the availability of low-cost, high-quality contributing technologies, computational utilities, and hardware and software resources that enable the operational realization of robust health monitoring technologies. This report presents a detailed analysis of the cost benefit and other logistics and operational considerations associated with the implementation and utilization of sensor-based technologies for use in aerospace structure health monitoring. The scope of this volume is to assess the economic impact, from an end-user perspective, implementation health monitoring technologies on three structures. It specifically focuses on evaluating the impact on maintaining and supporting these structures with and without health monitoring capability.

  2. Multi-Criteria Sustainability Assessment of Urban Sludge Treatment Technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    An, Da; Xi, Beidou; Ren, Jingzheng

    2017-01-01

    to determine the weights of the criteria for sustainability assessment, and extension theory was used to prioritize the alternative technologies for the treatment of urban sewage sludge and grade their sustainability performances. An illustrative case including three technologies (compositing, incineration......This study aims at developing a sustainability assessment framework for assessing the technologies for the treatment of urban sewage sludge based on the logarithmic fuzzy preference programming based fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (LFPPFAHP) and extension theory. LFPPFAHP was employed......, and resource utilization) was studied by the proposed method, and compositing, incineration, and resource utilization are recognized as "Moderately Sustainable", "Not Sustainable", and "Highly Sustainable", respectively. The sustainability sequence in the descending order is resource utilization, compositing...

  3. Assessing systemwide occupational health and safety risks of energy technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowe, M.D.

    1982-01-01

    Input-output modelling is now being used to assess systemwide occupational and public health and safety risks of energy technologies. Some of the advantages and disadvantages of this method are presented and some of its important limitations are discussed. Its primary advantage is that it provides a standard method with which to compare technologies on a consistent basis without extensive economic analysis. Among the disadvantages are limited range of applicability, limited spectrum of health impacts, and inability to identify unusual health impacts unique to a new technology. (author)

  4. Assessment of a satellite power system and six alternative technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wolsko, T.; Whitfield, R.; Samsa, M.; Habegger, L.S.; Levine, E.; Tanzman, E.

    1981-04-01

    The satellite power system is assessed in comparison to six alternative technologies. The alternatives are: central-station terrestrial photovoltaic systems, conventional coal-fired power plants, coal-gasification/combined-cycle power plants, light water reactor power plants, liquid-metal fast-breeder reactors, and fusion. The comparison is made regarding issues of cost and performance, health and safety, environmental effects, resources, socio-economic factors, and insitutional issues. The criteria for selecting the issues and the alternative technologies are given, and the methodology of the comparison is discussed. Brief descriptions of each of the technologies considered are included. (LEW)

  5. Sustainability assessment of renewable power and heat generation technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dombi, Mihály; Kuti, István; Balogh, Péter

    2014-01-01

    Rationalisation of consumption, more efficient energy usage and a new energy structure are needed to be achieved in order to shift the structure of energy system towards sustainability. The required energy system is among others characterised by intensive utilisation of renewable energy sources (RES). RES technologies have their own advantages and disadvantages. Nevertheless, for the strategic planning there is a great demand for the comparison of RES technologies. Furthermore, there are additional functions of RES utilisation expected beyond climate change mitigation, e.g. increment of employment, economic growth and rural development. The aim of the study was to reveal the most beneficial RES technologies with special respect to sustainability. Ten technologies of power generation and seven technologies of heat supply were examined in a multi-criteria sustainability assessment frame of seven attributes which were evaluated based on a choice experiment (CE) survey. According to experts the most important characteristics of RES utilisation technologies are land demand and social impacts i.e. increase in employment and local income generation. Concentrated solar power (CSP), hydropower and geothermal power plants are favourable technologies for power generation, while geothermal district heating, pellet-based non-grid heating and solar thermal heating can offer significant advantages in case of heat supply. - highlights: • We used choice experiment to estimate the weights of criteria for the sustainability assessment of RES technologies. • The most important attributes of RES technologies according to experts are land demand and social impacts. • Concentrated solar power (CSP), hydropower and geothermal power plants are advantageous technologies for power generation. • Geothermal district heating, pellet-based non-grid heating and solar thermal heating are favourable in case of heat supply

  6. Economic assessment of new technology of nuclear fuel cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, H. S.; Song, K. D.; Lee, M. K.; Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Lee, J. S.; Choi, H. B.

    1998-06-01

    The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of the change in the manufacturing cost of DUPIC fuel on the power generation cost. In doing so, the installed capacity of nuclear power plants until the year 2040 were forecasted by using the trend analysis technique. This study used the NUFCAP computer code, developed by KAERI, which allows to conduct quantitative evaluation of the volumes of nuclear fuel and spent fuel as well as unit and system costs of nuclear fuel cycle. As a result of this study, it was found that there was little economic difference between the two possible options for the Korean electric system, direct disposal and DUPIC fuel cycle. The rate of discount and the manufacturing cost of DUPIC fuel were resulted in the most significant factors affecting the economics of the two options. Finally, it was expected that the result of this study provided the arguing point for the international debate on the economics of DUPIC fuel cycle technology. (author). 6 refs., 7 tabs., 8 figs

  7. Technical and Economic Forecast in Selection of Optimum Biomass and Local Fossil Fuel Application Technology for Thermal Electric Energy Generation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Bokun

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper provides a technical and economic analysis pertaining to selection of optimum biomass and local fossil fuel application technology for thermal electric energy generation while using a matrix of costs and a method of minimum value. Calculation results give grounds to assert that it is expedient to burn in the boiling layer – 69 % and 31 % of wood pellets and wastes, respectively and 54 % of peat and 46 % of slate stones. A steam and gas unit (SGU can fully operate on peat. Taking into account reorientation on decentralized power supply and increase of small power plants up to 3–5 MW the paper specifies variants of the most efficient technologies for burning biomass and local fossil fuels. 

  8. Uses and applications of climate forecasts for power utilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Changnon, S.A.; Changnon, J.M.; Changnon, D. [Changnon Climatologist, Mahomet, IL (United States)

    1995-05-01

    The uses and potential applications of climate forecasts for electric and gas utilities were assessed: (1) to discern needs for improving climate forecasts and guiding future research, and (2) to assist utilities in making wise use of forecasts. In-depth structured interviews were conducted with 56 decision makers in six utilities to assess existing and potential uses of climate forecasts. Only 3 of the 56 use forecasts. Eighty percent of those sampled envisioned applications of climate forecasts, given certain changes and additional information. Primary applications exist in power trading, load forecasting, fuel acquisition, and systems planning, with slight differences in interests between utilities. Utility staff understand probability-based forecasts but desire climatological information related to forecasted outcomes, including analogs similar to the forecasts, and explanations of the forecasts. Desired lead times vary from a week to three months, along with forecasts of up to four seasons ahead. The new NOAA forecasts initiated in 1995 provide the lead times and longer-term forecasts desired. Major hindrances to use of forecasts are hard-to-understand formats, lack of corporate acceptance, and lack of access to expertise. Recent changes in government regulations altered the utility industry, leading to a more competitive world wherein information about future weather conditions assumes much more value. Outreach efforts by government forecast agencies appear valuable to help achieve the appropriate and enhanced use of climate forecasts by the utility industry. An opportunity for service exists also for the private weather sector. 17 refs., 1 fig., 9 tabs.

  9. Forecast analysis on satellites that need de-orbit technologies: future scenarios for passive de-orbit devices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palla, Chiara; Kingston, Jennifer

    2016-09-01

    Propulsion-based de-orbit is a space-proven technology; however, this strategy can strongly limit operational lifetime, as fuel mass is dedicated to the de-orbiting. In addition previous reliability studies have identified the propulsion subsystem as one of the major contributors driving satellite failures. This issue brings the need to develop affordable de-orbit technologies with a limited reliance on the system level performance of the host satellite, ideally largely passive methods. Passive disposal strategies which take advantage of aerodynamic drag as the de-orbit force are particularly attractive because they are independent of spacecraft propulsion capabilities. This paper investigates the future market for passive de-orbit devices in LEO to aid in defining top-level requirements for the design of such devices. This is performed by considering the compliances of projected future satellites with the Inter Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee de-orbit time, to quantify the number of spacecraft that are compliant or non-compliant with the guidelines and, in this way, determine their need for the previously discussed devices. The study is performed by using the SpaceTrak™ database which provides future launch schedules, and spacecraft information; the de-orbit analysis is carried out by means of simulations with STELA. A case study of a passive strategy is given by the de-orbit mechanism technological demonstrator, which is currently under development at Cranfield University and designed to deploy a drag sail at the end of the ESEO satellite mission.

  10. Short-term residential load forecasting: Impact of calendar effects and forecast granularity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lusis, Peter; Khalilpour, Kaveh Rajab; Andrew, Lachlan

    2017-01-01

    forecasting for a single-customer or even down at an appliance level. Access to high resolution data from smart meters has enabled the research community to assess conventional load forecasting techniques and develop new forecasting strategies suitable for demand-side disaggregated loads. This paper studies...

  11. Forecasts: uncertain, inaccurate and biased?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nicolaisen, Morten Skou; Ambrasaite, Inga; Salling, Kim Bang

    2012-01-01

    Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) is the dominating methodology for appraisal of transport infrastructure projects across the globe. In order to adequately assess the costs and benefits of such projects two types of forecasts are crucial to the validity of the appraisal. First are the forecasts of cons....... It is recommended that more attention is given to monitoring completed projects so future forecasts can benefit from better data availability through systematic ex-post evaluations, and an example of how to utilize such data in practice is presented....

  12. Estimation of analysis and forecast error variances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malaquias Peña

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Accurate estimates of error variances in numerical analyses and forecasts (i.e. difference between analysis or forecast fields and nature on the resolved scales are critical for the evaluation of forecasting systems, the tuning of data assimilation (DA systems and the proper initialisation of ensemble forecasts. Errors in observations and the difficulty in their estimation, the fact that estimates of analysis errors derived via DA schemes, are influenced by the same assumptions as those used to create the analysis fields themselves, and the presumed but unknown correlation between analysis and forecast errors make the problem difficult. In this paper, an approach is introduced for the unbiased estimation of analysis and forecast errors. The method is independent of any assumption or tuning parameter used in DA schemes. The method combines information from differences between forecast and analysis fields (‘perceived forecast errors’ with prior knowledge regarding the time evolution of (1 forecast error variance and (2 correlation between errors in analyses and forecasts. The quality of the error estimates, given the validity of the prior relationships, depends on the sample size of independent measurements of perceived errors. In a simulated forecast environment, the method is demonstrated to reproduce the true analysis and forecast error within predicted error bounds. The method is then applied to forecasts from four leading numerical weather prediction centres to assess the performance of their corresponding DA and modelling systems. Error variance estimates are qualitatively consistent with earlier studies regarding the performance of the forecast systems compared. The estimated correlation between forecast and analysis errors is found to be a useful diagnostic of the performance of observing and DA systems. In case of significant model-related errors, a methodology to decompose initial value and model-related forecast errors is also

  13. Infrastructure Improvements for Snowmelt Runoff Forecasting and Assessments of Climate Change Impacts on Water Supplies in the Rio Grande Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rango, A.; Steele, C. M.; Demouche, L.

    2009-12-01

    In the Southwest US, the southern Rocky Mountains provide a significant orographic barrier to prevailing moisture-laden Westerly winds, which results in snow accumulation and melt, both vitally important to the region’s water resources. The inherent variability of meteorological conditions in the Southwest, during both snowpack buildup and depletion, requires improved spatially-distributed data. The population of ground-based networks (SNOTEL, SCAN, and weather stations) is sparse and does not satisfactorily represent the variability of snow accumulation and melt. Remote sensing can be used to supplement data from ground networks, but the most frequently available remotely sensed product with the highest temporal and spatial resolution, namely snow cover, only provides areal data and not snow volume. Fortunately, the Snowmelt Runoff Model(SRM), which was developed in mountainous regions of the world, including the Rio Grande basin, accepts snow covered area as one of its major input variables along with temperature and precipitation. With the growing awareness of atmospheric warming and the southerly location of Southwest watersheds, it has become apparent that the effects of climate change will be especially important for Southwestern water users. The NSF-funded EPSCoR project “Climate Change Impacts on New Mexico’s Mountain Sources of Water” (started in 2009) has focused on improving hydrometeorological measurements, developing basin-wide and sub-basin snow cover mapping methods, generating snowmelt runoff simulations, forecasts, and long-term climate change assessments, and informing the public of the results through outreach and educational activities. Five new SNOTEL and four new SCAN sites are being installed in 2009-2010 and 12 existing basic SNOTEL sites are being upgraded. In addition, 30 automated precipitation gages are being added to New Mexico measurement networks. The first phase of snow mapping and modeling has focused on four sub basins

  14. System Safety Assessment Based on Past Incidents in Oil and Gas Industries: A Focused Approach in Forecasting of Minor, Severe, Critical, and Catastrophic Incidents, 2010–2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Praveen Patel

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Accident in an occupation which occurred due to series of repetitive minor incidents within the working environment. This work demonstrates the critical system safety assessment based on various incidents that took place to the different system and subsystem of two Indian oil refineries in five years of span 2010 to 2015. The categorization of incidents and hazard rate function of each incident category were classified and calculated. The result of Weibull analysis estimators in the form of scale and shape parameters provides useful information of incidents forecasting and their patterns in a particular time.

  15. Large Deployable Reflector (LDR) system concept and technology definition study. Volume 2: Technology assessment and technology development plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agnew, Donald L.; Jones, Peter A.

    1989-01-01

    A study was conducted to define reasonable and representative LDR system concepts for the purpose of defining a technology development program aimed at providing the requisite technological capability necessary to start LDR development by the end of 1991. This volume presents thirteen technology assessments and technology development plans, as well as an overview and summary of the LDR concepts. Twenty-two proposed augmentation projects are described (selected from more than 30 candidates). The five LDR technology areas most in need of supplementary support are: cryogenic cooling; astronaut assembly of the optically precise LDR in space; active segmented primary mirror; dynamic structural control; and primary mirror contamination control. Three broad, time-phased, five-year programs were synthesized from the 22 projects, scheduled, and funding requirements estimated.

  16. Incorporating the Technology Roadmap Uncertainties into the Project Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonnema, B.E.

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes two methods, Technology Roadmapping and Project Risk Assessment, which were used to identify and manage the technical risks relating to the treatment of sodium bearing waste at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory. The waste treatment technology under consideration was Direct Vitrification. The primary objective of the Technology Roadmap is to identify technical data uncertainties for the technologies involved and to prioritize the testing or development studies to fill the data gaps. Similarly, project management's objective for a multi-million dollar construction project includes managing all the key risks in accordance to DOE O 413.3 - ''Program and Project Management for the Acquisition of Capital Assets.'' In the early stages, the Project Risk Assessment is based upon a qualitative analysis for each risk's probability and consequence. In order to clearly prioritize the work to resolve the technical issues identified in the Technology Roadmap, the issues must be cross- referenced to the project's Risk Assessment. This will enable the project to get the best value for the cost to mitigate the risks

  17. Integration of tablet technologies in the e-laboratory of cytology: a health technology assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giansanti, Daniele; Pochini, Marco; Giovagnoli, Maria Rosaria

    2014-10-01

    Although tablet systems are becoming a powerful technology, particularly useful in every application of medical imaging, to date no one has investigated the acceptance and performance of this technology in digital cytology. The specific aims of the work were (1) to design a health technology assessment (HTA) tool to assess, in terms of performance and acceptance, the introduction of tablet technologies (wearable, portable, and non portable) in the e-laboratories of cytology and (2) to test the tool in a first significant application of digital cytology. An HTA tool was proposed operating on a domain of five dimensions of investigation comprising the basic information of the product of digital cytology, the perceived subjective quality of images, the assessment of the virtual navigation on the e-slide, the assessment of the information and communication technologies features, and the diagnostic power. Six e-slides regarding studies of cervicovaginal cytology digitalized by means of an Aperio ( www.aperio.com ) scanner and uploaded onto the www.digitalslide.it Web site were used for testing the methodology on three different network connections. Three experts of cytology successfully tested the methodology on seven tablets found suitable for the study in their own standard configuration. Specific indexes furnished by the tool indicated both a high degree of performance and subjective acceptance of the investigated technology. The HTA tool thus could be useful to investigate new tablet technologies in digital cytology and furnish stakeholders with useful information that may help them make decisions involving the healthcare system. From a global point of view the study demonstrates the feasibility of using the tablet technology in digital cytology.

  18. The Contribution of Health Technology Assessment, Health Needs Assessment, and Health Impact Assessment to the Assessment and Translation of Technologies in the Field of Public Health Genomics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosenkotter, N.; Vondeling, H.; Blancquaert, I.

    2011-01-01

    or to identify infrastructural needs. HIA delivers information on the impact of technologies in a wider scope and promotes informed decision making. HTA, HNA and HIA provide a partly overlapping and partly unique set of methodologies and infrastructure for the translation and assessment of genomic health...

  19. The NICE ADHD health technology assessment: A review and critique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schlander Michael

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Health technology assessments (HTAs by the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE enjoy high levels of international attention. The present analysis addresses NICE's appraisal of methylphenidate, atomoxetine and dexamphetamine for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD in children and adolescents, published in March 2006. Methods A qualitative study of NICE Technology Appraisal No. 98 was done focusing on the >600-page technology assessment report, which aimed at evaluating ADHD treatment strategies by a clinical effectiveness review and an economic analysis using meta-analytical techniques and a cost-effectiveness model. Results The technology assessment was unable to differentiate between the various drugs in terms of efficacy, and its economic model was ultimately driven by cost differences. While the assessment concluded that the economic model "clearly identified an optimal treatment strategy" with first-line dexamphetamine, the NICE appraisal committee subsequently found it impossible to distinguish between the different strategies on grounds of cost-effectiveness. Analyzing the assessment reveals gaps and inconsistencies concerning data selection (ultimately relying on a small number of short-term studies only, data synthesis (pooling of heterogeneous study designs and clinical endpoints, and economic model structure (identifying double-counting of nonresponders as a likely source of bias, alongside further methodological anomalies. Conclusion Many conclusions of the NICE technology assessment rest on shaky grounds. There remains a need for a new, state-of-the-art systematic review of ADHD treatment strategies including economic evaluation, which ideally should address outcomes beyond children's health-related quality of life, such as long-term sequelae of the disorder and caregiver burden.

  20. DECISION ANALYSIS AND TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENTS FOR METAL AND MASONRY DECONTAMINATION TECHNOLOGIES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M.A. Ebadian, Ph.D.

    1999-01-01

    The purpose of this investigation was to conduct a comparative analysis of innovative technologies for the non-aggressive removal of coatings from metal and masonry surfaces and the aggressive removal of one-quarter to one-inch thickness of surface from structural masonry. The technologies tested should be capable of being used in nuclear facilities. Innovative decontamination technologies are being evaluated under standard, non-nuclear conditions at the FIU-HCET technology assessment site in Miami, Florida. This study is being performed to support the OST, the Deactivation and Decommissioning (D&D) Focus Area, and the environmental restoration of DOE facilities throughout the DOE complex by providing objective evaluations of currently available decontamination technologies.

  1. DECISION ANALYSIS AND TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENTS FOR METAL AND MASONRY DECONTAMINATION TECHNOLOGIES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ebadian, M.A.

    1999-01-01

    The purpose of this investigation was to conduct a comparative analysis of innovative technologies for the non-aggressive removal of coatings from metal and masonry surfaces and the aggressive removal of one-quarter to one-inch thickness of surface from structural masonry. The technologies tested should be capable of being used in nuclear facilities. Innovative decontamination technologies are being evaluated under standard, non-nuclear conditions at the FIU-HCET technology assessment site in Miami, Florida. This study is being performed to support the OST, the Deactivation and Decommissioning (D and D) Focus Area, and the environmental restoration of DOE facilities throughout the DOE complex by providing objective evaluations of currently available decontamination technologies

  2. Technology and Economic Assessment of Innovative Field Drainage Technologies in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gachango, Florence Gathoni

    proposed as appropriate solutions to this problem in the Danish context. The feasibility of these technologies with regards to their cost-effectiveness in nutrient mitigation, farmers’ adoption behavior, and environmental policy implementation is assessed in this thesis. The thesis comprises of four papers...... based on survey and case-farms data and utilizes a mix of quantitative and qualitative methods to investigate: i) the farmers’ perception of water quality and their adoption behavior with respect to voluntary nutrient reduction technologies, ii) the farmers willingness to adopt constructed wetland...... technologies, and their willingness and extent of trading-off the existing farm management nutrient reduction measures with constructed wetland technology, iii) the cost-effectiveness of surface flow constructed wetlands, and iv) the strategies of incorporating the filter technologies into policy measures...

  3. Health technology assessment, value-based decision making, and innovation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henshall, Chris; Schuller, Tara

    2013-10-01

    Identifying treatments that offer value and value for money is becoming increasingly important, with interest in how health technology assessment (HTA) and decision makers can take appropriate account of what is of value to patients and to society, and in the relationship between innovation and assessments of value. This study summarizes points from an Health Technology Assessment International (HTAi) Policy Forum discussion, drawing on presentations, discussions among attendees, and background papers. Various perspectives on value were considered; most place patient health at the core of value. Wider elements of value comprise other benefits for: patients; caregivers; the health and social care systems; and society. Most decision-making systems seek to take account of similar elements of value, although they are assessed and combined in different ways. Judgment in decisions remains important and cannot be replaced by mathematical approaches. There was discussion of the value of innovation and of the effects of value assessments on innovation. Discussion also included moving toward "progressive health system decision making," an ongoing process whereby evidence-based decisions on use would be made at various stages in the technology lifecycle. Five actions are identified: (i) development of a general framework for the definition and assessment of value; development by HTA/coverage bodies and regulators of (ii) disease-specific guidance and (iii) further joint scientific advice for industry on demonstrating value; (iv) development of a framework for progressive licensing, usage, and reimbursement; and (v) promoting work to better adapt HTA, coverage, and procurement approaches to medical devices.

  4. Prioritizing Information Technology Investments: Assessing the Correlations among Technological Readiness, Information Technology Flexibility, and Information Technology Effectiveness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walter, John T.

    2010-01-01

    Management's dilemma, when allocating financial resources towards the improvement of technological readiness and IT flexibility within their organizations, is to control financial risk and maximize IT effectiveness. Technological readiness is people's propensity to embrace and use technology. Its drivers are optimism, innovativeness, discomfort,…

  5. Can health technologies be assessed using routine data?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevens, Andrew J; Raftery, James; Roderick, Paul

    2005-01-01

    The potential of routine data for health technology assessment (HTA) in the United Kingdom was assessed. Compiled were a comprehensive list of routine databases, their classification according to data characteristics, literature review on their current use, and their comparison with key topics identified as priorities for HTA. Two hundred seventy health-care databases for England or the English regions were identified. Twenty-four included data on both health technology and patient health state. Eleven found some published use in effectiveness evaluation. Of 140 prioritized health technologies, only 22 could be identified in routine databases. Routine data are plentiful but of limited use in HTA. The data sets usually do not include the effect of treatments. Coding is inadequate, and confidentiality regulations will make matters worse. Both need urgent attention.

  6. Health technology assessment in Canada. A decade in review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menon, D; Topfer, L A

    2000-01-01

    Since 1988, four government-funded health technology assessment (HTA) agencies have been established in Canada. This paper is a descriptive review of reports issued by these organizations during the period from 1988 to 1998. Publications from the national and three provincial HTA agencies in Canada were obtained and reviewed. Only the 117 assessment reports that were reported to have undergone external review were included in this analysis. Each report was classified on a standard abstraction form according to criteria such as technology type(s), assessment focus, whether a specific policy question was clearly stated and relevant decision maker(s) identified, description of search strategy and selection criteria, sources of data and assessment methods used, whether recommendations or conclusions were made, and duplication or overlap of reports. The trends in these qualities over the 10-year period were also examined. Therapeutic technologies have received the most attention from all four agencies, although the focus on devices, drugs, and procedures varied between agencies. The policy question under investigation was clearly identified in 82% of reports, and 71% clearly identified the decision maker toward whom the assessment was targeted. Efficacy or effectiveness was examined in 81% of reports, and costs were assessed in 65% of studies. These were the two most frequently examined aspects. Almost all assessments were descriptive literature reviews; 9% included meta-analyses and 32% had cost analyses or economic evaluations. Forty-four percent of reports had a clear description of the literature search strategy, and selection criteria were clearly specified in 38% of studies, but there was considerable variation among agencies in the level of description of these methods. Conclusions were clearly stated in 83% of the assessments' conclusions, and 13% had recommendations. When analyzed longitudinally, it is apparent that the quality of reports has improved markedly

  7. Health technology assessment in the era of personalized health care.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Becla, L.; Lunshof, J.E.; Gurwitz, D.; Schulte in de Baumen, T.; Westerhoff, H.V.; Lange, B.; Brand, A.

    2011-01-01

    Objectives: This article examines the challenges for health technology assessment (HTA) in the light of new developments of personalized health care, focusing on European HTA perspectives. Methods: Using the example of the Integrated Genome Research Network - Mutanom (IG Mutanom) project, with focus

  8. Integrating ethics in health technology assessment: many ways to Rome

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hofmann, B.; Oortwijn, W.; Lysdahl, K. Bakke; Refolo, P.; Sacchini, D.; Wilt, G.J. van der; Gerhardus, A.

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to identify and discuss appropriate approaches to integrate ethical inquiry in health technology assessment (HTA). METHODS: The key question is how ethics can be integrated in HTA. This is addressed in two steps: by investigating what it means to integrate

  9. An assessment of oil processing methods and technology in Taraba ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objective: The study assessed the various methods and technology of vegetable oil processing in Taraba State. Methods: A total of 250 questionnaires were administered to vegetable oil processors with indepth interview of 28 respondents who were randomly selected based on a preliminary study in six (6) Local ...

  10. Technology Applications for Children with ADHD: Assessing the Empirical Support.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Chunzhen; Reid, Robert; Steckelberg, Allen

    2002-01-01

    This article reviews technology research (n=20) with students with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in five categories: computer-assisted instruction, computer-based cognitive training, biofeedback training, assessment, and behavior modification. Analysis of available research suggests there is little well controlled experimental…

  11. Geospatial Technology In Environmental Impact Assessments – Retrospective.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goparaju Laxmi

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Environmental Impact Assessments are studies conducted to give us an insight into the various impacts caused by an upcoming industry or any developmental activity. It should address various social, economic and environmental issues ensuring that negative impacts are mitigated. In this context, geospatial technology has been used widely in recent times.

  12. A DECADE OF HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT IN POLAND

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lipska, Iga; McAuslane, James Neil; Leufkens, Bert; Hövels, Anke

    OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study is to illustrate and provide a better understanding of the role of health technology assessment (HTA) processes in decision making for drug reimbursement in Poland and how this approach could be considered by other countries of limited resources. METHODS: We

  13. Assessing the Impact of Information Technology (WWW) on the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    PROF. O. E. OSUAGWU

    2013-12-01

    Dec 1, 2013 ... This paper was born out of pragmatic attempt by the authors to assess what factors influence “Positive Image” of incumbent public officers, the role of IT in .... source, the message, the channel, the receiver and feedback as graphically ..... digital (computer) technology to mass communications. In a few short ...

  14. Industry technology assessment of graphite-polymide composite materials. [conferences

    Science.gov (United States)

    1975-01-01

    An assessment of the current state of the art and the future prospects for graphite polyimide composite material technology is presented. Presentations and discussions given at a minisymposium of major issues on the present and future use, availability, processing, manufacturing, and testing of graphite polyimide composite materials are summarized.

  15. Health technology assessment of asthma disease management programs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steuten, Lotte Maria Gertruda; Lemmens, Karin; Vrijhoef, Bert

    2007-01-01

    Purpose of review: To provide a critical opinion on the extent to which asthma disease management programs currently improve the effectiveness and efficiency of care and directions for future policy and research. Recent findings: The methodological quality of health technology assessment of asthma

  16. Assessment of research needs for wind turbine rotor materials technology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    National Research Council Staff; Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems; Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences; National Research Council; National Academy of Sciences

    1991-01-01

    ... on Assessment of Research Needs for Wind Turbine Rotor Materials Technology Energy Engineering Board Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1991 Copyrightthe true use are Please breaks Page inserted. accidentally typesetting been have may original the from errors not...

  17. An Assessment of Information Technology and the Gender Question ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study aimed at assessing the impact of knowledge of information technology on gender discrimination in the Nigeria's civil service work, 1200 civil servants with varied demographic characteristics randomly selected from 6 states capitals across the country participated in this study. The mean age for males and females ...

  18. Technology assessment of automation trends in the modular home industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phil Mitchell; Robert Russell Hurst

    2009-01-01

    This report provides an assessment of technology used in manufacturing modular homes in the United States, and that used in the German prefabricated wooden home industry. It is the first step toward identifying the research needs in automation and manufacturing methods that will facilitate mass customization in the home manufacturing industry. Within the United States...

  19. Early phase Technology Assessment of Nanotechnology in Oncology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Retel, Valesca; Retèl, Valesca P.; Hummel, J. Marjan; van Harten, Willem H.

    2008-01-01

    To perform early Technology Assessment (TA) of nanotechnology in oncology. The possibilities of nanotechnology for detection (imaging), diagnosis and treatment of cancer are subject of different research programs where major investments are concerned. As a range of bio- nanotechnologies is expected

  20. Constructive technology assessment of emerging nanotechnologies : experiments in interactions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Robinson, D.K.R.

    2010-01-01

    In January 2003, the Dutch R&D consortium NanoNed (at first supported by special NanoImpulse funding) started its work, and from the beginning it included a component on Technology Assessment and Societal Aspects of Nanotechnology, organized as an additional “flagship”, labelled TA NanoNed. The

  1. Analysis of the development and diffusion of technological innovations in oil spill forecasting: The MEDESS-4MS case

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcati, Alberto; Prete, M. Irene; Mileti, Antonio; Cortese, Mario; Zodiatis, George; Karaolia, Andria; Gauci, Adam; Drago, Aldo

    2016-11-01

    This paper presents a case study on the management of users' engagement in the development of a new technology. Based on the experience of MEDESS-4MS, an integrated operational model for oil spill Decision Support System covering the whole Mediterranean Sea, the case study is aimed at the development of a framework for user engagement and for the management of its dual logic. Indeed, users may play a dual role in the innovation process, contributing to both the design of the innovation and its promotion. Users contribute to shaping the innovation, by aggregating and integrating knowledge, and they facilitate its diffusion, by adopting the innovation and fostering its adoption within the socio-economic system.

  2. Early phase Technology Assessment of nanotechnology in oncology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Retèl, Valesca P; Hummel, Marjan J M; van Harten, Willem H

    2008-01-01

    To perform early Technology Assessment (TA) of nanotechnology in oncology. The possibilities of nanotechnology for detection (imaging), diagnosis and treatment of cancer are subject of different research programs where major investments are concerned. As a range of bio- nanotechnologies is expected to enter the oncology field it is relevant to consider the various aspects involved in especially early TA. This article provides two cases of early assessment of (predecessors of) nanotechnologies: Microarray Analysis and Photodynamic Therapy implementation, which methodology can be extrapolated to other nanotechnologies in oncology. Constructive Technology Assessment (CTA) is used for the introduction of technologies that are still in a dynamic phase of development or in an early stage of diffusion. The selection of studied aspects in CTA is based on: clinical aspects (safety, efficacy, and effectiveness), economic (cost-effectiveness), patient related (QoL, ethical/juridical and psychosocial), organizational aspects (diffusion and adoption) and scenario drafting. The features of the technology and the phase of implementation are decisive for choices and timing of the specific aspects to be studied. A framework was drafted to decide on the relevant aspects. In the first case, early implementation of Microarray Analysis; clinical effectiveness, logistics, patient centeredness and scenario drafting were given priority. Related to the diffusion-phase of Photodynamic Therapy however other aspects were evaluated, such as early cost-effectiveness analysis for possible reimbursement. Often CTA will result in a mixed method design. Especially scenario drafting is a powerful instrument to predict possible developments that can be anticipated upon in the assessment. CTA is appropriate for the study of early implementation of new technologies in oncology. In early TA small series often necessitate a mix of quantitative and qualitative methods. The features of nanotechnology

  3. ktup Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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    Data.gov (United States)

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