WorldWideScience

Sample records for technology forecast assessments

  1. Potential Technologies for Assessing Risk Associated with a Mesoscale Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-10-01

    the actual model-forecast error—the 500-hPa root-mean-square error (RMSE) height error. Future work should also consider other forecast metrics such...ARL-TN-0708 ● OCT 2015 US Army Research Laboratory Potential Technologies for Assessing Risk Associated with a Mesoscale...OCT 2015 US Army Research Laboratory Potential Technologies for Assessing Risk Associated with a Mesoscale Forecast by Patrick A

  2. An assessment of the value of seasonal forecasting technology for Western Australian farmers

    OpenAIRE

    Petersen, Elizabeth H.; Fraser, Rob W.

    2001-01-01

    Of the number of seasonal forecasting systems that have been developed of late, none are of practical benefit to Western Australian farmers. This study aims to improve the methodology for assessing the value of forecasting technology ex ante to its development, using the Merredin agricultural region of Western Australia as an illustration. Results suggest that a seasonal forecasting technology that provides a 30 per cent decrease in seasonal uncertainty increases annual profits by approximate...

  3. Assessing public forecasts to encourage accountability: The case of MIT's Technology Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, Jeffrey

    2017-01-01

    Although high degrees of reliability have been found for many types of forecasts purportedly due to the existence of accountability, public forecasts of technology are rarely assessed and continue to have a poor reputation. This paper's analysis of forecasts made by MIT's Technology Review provides a rare assessment and thus a means to encourage accountability. It first shows that few of the predicted "breakthrough technologies" currently have large markets. Only four have sales greater than $10 billion while eight technologies not predicted by Technology Review have sales greater than $10 billion including three with greater than $100 billion and one other with greater than $50 billion. Second, possible reasons for these poor forecasts are then discussed including an over emphasis on the science-based process of technology change, sometimes called the linear model of innovation. Third, this paper describes a different model of technology change, one that is widely used by private companies and that explains the emergence of those technologies that have greater than $10 billion in sales. Fourth, technology change and forecasts are discussed in terms of cognitive biases and mental models.

  4. Socioeconomic Impact Assessment: Communications Industry. Phase III. Technology Forecast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1979-02-02

    follows: stagflation, balanced growth, rapid growth. That is, it requires less time to move from ideation to market introduction under a rapid growth...consider the relative relationship among the socio-economic scenarios. The assertions of import include: 1. The period between ideation and market ... introduction for a technology is influenced by the socio-economic scenario. It is likely that the time requirement, i.e. innovation lag, will be ordered as

  5. Innovative activity of high-technology companies as assessment and forecasting object

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. E. Sklyarov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Innovation activities, as well as innovations, are closely related meanings, and like many others economical definitions, have a broad range of meanings. Main characteristics and attributes of innovation involves new or significantly improved product, that’s being used, or in other words, found its application, and innovative activities – activities focused on realization of innovations. In this article, innovations are mainly considered in terms of high-technology production, evidence from Russian space industry. There are 5 basic stages of lifecycle of innovative project in considered industry: initiation, development, realization, expansion, consumption. Practically, third or fourth, or even both of these stages, often missing because there is no need of them. R&D activities, or even further serial production, based on previous developments, is an innovation activity, because these activities are stages of innovative projects lifecycle itself. Then it seems legit, to draw a conclusion, that in terms of high-technology production, company’s primary activity equals innovative activity. Basic characteristics of innovative activity of high-technology companies as assessment and forecasting object involves high level of uncertainty at every stage of projects lifecycle, high dependency on funding level of this activity, and high level and erratic structure of risk. All the above mentioned, means that assessment and forecasting of innovative activity of high-technology companies, needs development of its own methodological tools for each industry.

  6. A formulation of multidimensional growth models for the assessment and forecast of technology attributes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danner, Travis W.

    Developing technology systems requires all manner of investment---engineering talent, prototypes, test facilities, and more. Even for simple design problems the investment can be substantial; for complex technology systems, the development costs can be staggering. The profitability of a corporation in a technology-driven industry is crucially dependent on maximizing the effectiveness of research and development investment. Decision-makers charged with allocation of this investment are forced to choose between the further evolution of existing technologies and the pursuit of revolutionary technologies. At risk on the one hand is excessive investment in an evolutionary technology which has only limited availability for further improvement. On the other hand, the pursuit of a revolutionary technology may mean abandoning momentum and the potential for substantial evolutionary improvement resulting from the years of accumulated knowledge. The informed answer to this question, evolutionary or revolutionary, requires knowledge of the expected rate of improvement and the potential a technology offers for further improvement. This research is dedicated to formulating the assessment and forecasting tools necessary to acquire this knowledge. The same physical laws and principles that enable the development and improvement of specific technologies also limit the ultimate capability of those technologies. Researchers have long used this concept as the foundation for modeling technological advancement through extrapolation by analogy to biological growth models. These models are employed to depict technology development as it asymptotically approaches limits established by the fundamental principles on which the technological approach is based. This has proven an effective and accurate approach to modeling and forecasting simple single-attribute technologies. With increased system complexity and the introduction of multiple system objectives, however, the usefulness of this

  7. Persistent forecasting of disruptive technologies

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Committee on Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies; National Research Council

    ...) and the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) tasked the Committee for Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies with providing guidance and insight on how to build a persistent forecasting system to predict, analyze, and reduce the impact...

  8. STAR 21, Technology Forecast Assessments. Strategic Technologies for the Army of the Twenty-First Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-01-01

    technology, power conditioning includes prime power from homopolar generators, compulsators , and alternators combined with capacitors, batteries, and pulse...positions where they cease to make design contributions. Working relationships with suppliers are changing from strictly buyer /seller to partnerships

  9. Forecasting Consumer Adoption of Information Technology and Services--Lessons from Home Video Forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klopfenstein, Bruce C.

    1989-01-01

    Describes research that examined the strengths and weaknesses of technological forecasting methods by analyzing forecasting studies made for home video players. The discussion covers assessments and explications of correct and incorrect forecasting assumptions, and their implications for forecasting the adoption of home information technologies…

  10. The impact of earth resources exploration from space. [technology assessment/LANDSAT satellites -technological forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nordberg, W.

    1975-01-01

    The use of Earth Resources Technology Satellites in solving global problems is examined. Topics discussed are: (1) management of food, water, and fiber resources; (2) exploration and management of energy and mineral resources; (3) protection of the environment; (4) protection of life and property; and (5) improvements in shipping and navigation.

  11. Hydrocarbon Rocket Technology Impact Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuber, Eric; Prasadh, Nishant; Edwards, Stephen; Mavris, Dimitri N.

    2012-01-01

    Forecasting method is a normative forecasting technique that allows the designer to quantify the effects of adding new technologies on a given design. This method can be used to assess and identify the necessary technological improvements needed to close the gap that exists between the current design and one that satisfies all constraints imposed on the design. The TIF methodology allows for more design knowledge to be brought to the earlier phases of the design process, making use of tools such as Quality Function Deployments, Morphological Matrices, Response Surface Methodology, and Monte Carlo Simulations.2 This increased knowledge allows for more informed decisions to be made earlier in the design process, resulting in shortened design cycle time. This paper will investigate applying the TIF method, which has been widely used in aircraft applications, to the conceptual design of a hydrocarbon rocket engine. In order to reinstate a manned presence in space, the U.S. must develop an affordable and sustainable launch capability. Hydrocarbon-fueled rockets have drawn interest from numerous major government and commercial entities because they offer a low-cost heavy-lift option that would allow for frequent launches1. However, the development of effective new hydrocarbon rockets would likely require new technologies in order to overcome certain design constraints. The use of advanced design methods, such as the TIF method, enables the designer to identify key areas in need of improvement, allowing one to dial in a proposed technology and assess its impact on the system. Through analyses such as this one, a conceptual design for a hydrocarbon-fueled vehicle that meets all imposed requirements can be achieved.

  12. Forecasting for strengthening technological development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aida Mayerly Fúquene Montañez

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Producing technological innovation is currently one of the key items in being more competitive. However, production sectors are facing great challenges, including analysing a large amount of available technological and market information regarding the en- vironment for strategic decision-making and being able to launch themselves onto the market with technological developments bringing the desired economic returns. Several tools for analysing information have emerged for reducing the uncertainty of tech- nological and market changes. This article provides conceptual and reflective elements so that forecasting strengthens technolo- gical development (TD. Forecasting is initially proposed as being one of the future methods of analysis having a significant im- pact on decision-making, mainly within the field of economics but which could be extrapolated to making a contribution to TD. The techniques which have been the recent instrument for collecting information for producing forecasting are described, as is work about the concept of surveillance/monitoring and the processes used for coordinating such approaches. It can thus be sta- ted that they provide an excellent basis for strengthening TD by providing platforms for new or improved developments in pro- cesses or products. Reflection about these aspects provides perspectives for implementing technological forecasting (TF in pro- duction systems so that they obtain efficient and concrete results via deterministic methods as input in decision-making in techno- logy regarding its middle- and long-term competitiveness.

  13. A Delphi forecast of technology in education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, B. E.

    1973-01-01

    The results are reported of a Delphi forecast of the utilization and social impacts of large-scale educational telecommunications technology. The focus is on both forecasting methodology and educational technology. The various methods of forecasting used by futurists are analyzed from the perspective of the most appropriate method for a prognosticator of educational technology, and review and critical analysis are presented of previous forecasts and studies. Graphic responses, summarized comments, and a scenario of education in 1990 are presented.

  14. Forecasting Technological Discontinuities in the ICT Industry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoisl, Karin; Stelzer, Tobias; Biala, Stefanie

    2015-01-01

    Building on the existing literature on evolutionary innovation and technological change, this paper aims to identify potential signals of technological discontinuities and to obtain assessments of experts to what extent these signals help them to predict discontinuities. Furthermore, we analyze...... in the ICT industry. The conjoint approach allows for a simulation of the forecasting process and considers utility trade-offs. The results show that for both types of experts the perceived benefit of users most highly contributes to predicting technological discontinuities. Internal experts assign more...... insights to the literature on R&D and innovation management....

  15. Knowledge/Data Mining, Assessment and Forecasting of Ground Military Vehicle Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-11

    or . UNCLASSIFIED 4 National Automotive Center “Shifted- Gears Organization”NAC-TARDECs Technology Thrust Areas TARDEC Chief Scientist Director...Displacement      12. Uniform Potential • To reduce load to lift / lower ‐ Pulleys • Rollers on luggage • Rollerblading to work UNCLASSIFIED 19 Some

  16. Forecasting methods for computer technology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Worlton, W.J.

    1978-01-01

    How well the computer site manager avoids future dangers and takes advantage of future opportunities depends to a considerable degree on how much anticipatory information he has available. People who rise in management are expected with each successive promotion to concern themselves with events further in the future. It is the function of technology projection to increase this stock of information about possible future developments in order to put planning and decision making on a more rational basis. Past efforts at computer technology projections have an accuracy that declines exponentially with time. Thus, precisely defined technology projections beyond about three years should be used with considerable caution. This paper reviews both subjective and objective methods of technology projection and gives examples of each. For an integrated view of future prospects in computer technology, a framework for technology projection is proposed.

  17. Forecasting methods for computer technology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Worlton, W.J.

    1978-01-01

    How well the computer site manager avoids future dangers and takes advantage of future opportunities depends to a considerable degree on how much anticipatory information he has available. People who rise in management are expected with each successive promotion to concern themselves with events further in the future. It is the function of technology projection to increase this stock of information about possible future developments in order to put planning and decision making on a more rational basis. Past efforts at computer technology projections have an accuracy that declines exponentially with time. Thus, precisely defined technology projections beyond about three years should be used with considerable caution. This paper reviews both subjective and objective methods of technology projection and gives examples of each. For an integrated view of future prospects in computer technology, a framework for technology projection is proposed.

  18. Assessment of reservoir system variable forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kistenmacher, Martin; Georgakakos, Aris P.

    2015-05-01

    Forecast ensembles are a convenient means to model water resources uncertainties and to inform planning and management processes. For multipurpose reservoir systems, forecast types include (i) forecasts of upcoming inflows and (ii) forecasts of system variables and outputs such as reservoir levels, releases, flood damage risks, hydropower production, water supply withdrawals, water quality conditions, navigation opportunities, and environmental flows, among others. Forecasts of system variables and outputs are conditional on forecasted inflows as well as on specific management policies and can provide useful information for decision-making processes. Unlike inflow forecasts (in ensemble or other forms), which have been the subject of many previous studies, reservoir system variable and output forecasts are not formally assessed in water resources management theory or practice. This article addresses this gap and develops methods to rectify potential reservoir system forecast inconsistencies and improve the quality of management-relevant information provided to stakeholders and managers. The overarching conclusion is that system variable and output forecast consistency is critical for robust reservoir management and needs to be routinely assessed for any management model used to inform planning and management processes. The above are demonstrated through an application from the Sacramento-American-San Joaquin reservoir system in northern California.

  19. Forecasting and management of technology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Roper, A. T

    2011-01-01

    ... the authors see as the innovations to technology management in the last 17 years: the Internet; the greater focus on group decision-making including process management and mechanism design; and desktop software that has transformed the analytical capabilities of technology managers"--Provided by publisher.

  20. Forecasting and management of technology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Roper, A. T

    2011-01-01

    "The new, revised edition of this book will build on this knowledge in the context of business organizations that now place a greater emphasis on technology to stay on the cutting edge of development...

  1. A Quantitative Approach for Measuring Technological Forecasting Capability

    OpenAIRE

    Ayhan, Mustafa Batuhan; Oztemel, Ercan

    2013-01-01

    Successful technological forecasting is important to invest scarce funds to emerging technologies. A generic model to measure the success of forecasting overall technological changes is introduced in this paper, called degree of Technological Forecasting Capability. It measures the success rate of forecasts in manufacturing processes based on four important aspects of a manufacturing system; Flow Time, Quantity/Day, Scrap Ratio, and New Investment Revenue. The proposed approach has been verif...

  2. [Forecasting medical technologies--a global overview].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tal, Orna

    2011-02-01

    Forecasting new medical technologies is a crucial stage in the process of decision-making in health care systems on national, organizational, professional and personal levels. Knowing what is on the horizon is essential. It is a tool facilitating preparedness and planning for updating health care in the western world. The challenge is to identify new promising technologies at an early stage. This is due to the uncertainty in estimating developing trends and consequences (clinical, financial, political, legal, social and ethical). A balance must be found between the desire to adopt new emerging technologies and the necessity for accountability n basing decisions on efficient evidence. Scarce resources, pervading health systems everywhere, emphasize the need for this mechanism to justify and improve health system determinations. Planning for the future has expanded into new medical fields, thereby reinforcing the importance of national forecasting bodies. This article presents the basic terminology and principles of medical technology forecasting and reviews the agencies involved in early warning systems including Israel.

  3. Information Technology Resources Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-04-01

    The Information Technology Resources Assessment (ITRA) is being published as a companion document to the Department of Energy (DOE) FY 1994--FY 1998 Information Resources Management Long-Range Plan. This document represents a collaborative effort between the Office of Information Resources Management and the Office of Energy Research that was undertaken to achieve, in part, the Technology Strategic Objective of IRM Vision 21. An integral part of this objective, technology forecasting provides an understanding of the information technology horizon and presents a perspective and focus on technologies of particular interest to DOE program activities. Specifically, this document provides site planners with an overview of the status and use of new information technology for their planning consideration.

  4. Assessing flood forecast uncertainty with fuzzy arithmetic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    de Bruyn Bertrand

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Providing forecasts for flow rates and water levels during floods have to be associated with uncertainty estimates. The forecast sources of uncertainty are plural. For hydrological forecasts (rainfall-runoff performed using a deterministic hydrological model with basic physics, two main sources can be identified. The first obvious source is the forcing data: rainfall forecast data are supplied in real time by meteorological forecasting services to the Flood Forecasting Service within a range between a lowest and a highest predicted discharge. These two values define an uncertainty interval for the rainfall variable provided on a given watershed. The second source of uncertainty is related to the complexity of the modeled system (the catchment impacted by the hydro-meteorological phenomenon, the number of variables that may describe the problem and their spatial and time variability. The model simplifies the system by reducing the number of variables to a few parameters. Thus it contains an intrinsic uncertainty. This model uncertainty is assessed by comparing simulated and observed rates for a large number of hydro-meteorological events. We propose a method based on fuzzy arithmetic to estimate the possible range of flow rates (and levels of water making a forecast based on possible rainfalls provided by forcing and uncertainty model. The model uncertainty is here expressed as a range of possible values. Both rainfall and model uncertainties are combined with fuzzy arithmetic. This method allows to evaluate the prediction uncertainty range. The Flood Forecasting Service of Oise and Aisne rivers, in particular, monitors the upstream watershed of the Oise at Hirson. This watershed’s area is 310 km2. Its response time is about 10 hours. Several hydrological models are calibrated for flood forecasting in this watershed and use the rainfall forecast. This method presents the advantage to be easily implemented. Moreover, it permits to be carried out

  5. Extravehicular Activity Technology Development Status and Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chullen, Cinda; Westheimer, David T.

    2011-01-01

    The goal of NASA s current EVA technology effort is to further develop technologies that will be used to demonstrate a robust EVA system that has application for a variety of future missions including microgravity and surface EVA. Overall the objectives will be to reduce system mass, reduce consumables and maintenance, increase EVA hardware robustness and life, increase crew member efficiency and autonomy, and enable rapid vehicle egress and ingress. Over the past several years, NASA realized a tremendous increase in EVA system development as part of the Exploration Technology Development Program and the Constellation Program. The evident demand for efficient and reliable EVA technologies, particularly regenerable technologies was apparent under these former programs and will continue to be needed as future mission opportunities arise. The technological need for EVA in space has been realized over the last several decades by the Gemini, Apollo, Skylab, Space Shuttle, and the International Space Station (ISS) programs. EVAs were critical to the success of these programs. Now with the ISS extension to 2028 in conjunction with a current forecasted need of at least eight EVAs per year, the EVA hardware life and limited availability of the Extravehicular Mobility Units (EMUs) will eventually become a critical issue. The current EMU has successfully served EVA demands by performing critical operations to assemble the ISS and provide repairs of satellites such as the Hubble Space Telescope. However, as the life of ISS and the vision for future mission opportunities are realized, a new EVA systems capability will be needed and the current architectures and technologies under development offer significant improvements over the current flight systems. In addition to ISS, potential mission applications include EVAs for missions to Near Earth Objects (NEO), Phobos, or future surface missions. Surface missions could include either exploration of the Moon or Mars. Providing an

  6. TRIZ TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING AS QFD INPUT WITHIN THE NPD ACTIVITIES

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Coulibaly Solomani; Hua Zhongsheng; Shi Qin; Wang Wei

    2004-01-01

    As a result of the fierceness of business competition,companies,to remain competitive,have to charm their customers by anticipating their needs and being able to rapidly develop exciting new products for them.To overcome this challenge,technology forecasting is considered as a powerful tool in today's business environment,while there are as many success stories as there are failures,a good application of this method will give a good result.A methodology of integration of patterns or lines of technology evolution in TRIZ parlance is presented,which is also known as TRIZ technology forecasting,as input to the QFD process to design a new product.For this purpose,TRIZ technology forecasting,one of the TRIZ major tools,is discussed and some benefits compared to the traditional forecasting techniques are highlighted.Then a methodology to integrate TRIZ technology forecasting and QFD process is highlighted.

  7. Retrospective Analysis of Technology Forecasting: In-Scope Extension

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-13

    were the means used to collect and verify forecasts, as well as the use of deep web research and broad sourcing. The study methodology is summarized in...include: • Searching the “ deep web ” to find forecast documents that are not indexed by standard search engines and therefore cannot be retrieved...used books and published reports that contain technological forecasts To search the deep web , we contracted with Bright Planet, which used proprietary

  8. Computer technology forecast study for general aviation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seacord, C. L.; Vaughn, D.

    1976-01-01

    A multi-year, multi-faceted program is underway to investigate and develop potential improvements in airframes, engines, and avionics for general aviation aircraft. The objective of this study was to assemble information that will allow the government to assess the trends in computer and computer/operator interface technology that may have application to general aviation in the 1980's and beyond. The current state of the art of computer hardware is assessed, technical developments in computer hardware are predicted, and nonaviation large volume users of computer hardware are identified.

  9. Forecasting and Technology Management: Statistical Theory and Methodological Issues

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henning

    technology. The conclusion is that widespread awareness of the growing force of technology and increasing concern over its impact means that forecasting of technological development and consequences is absolutely essential in many managerial decision situations. Examples cover e.g. identification...... of directions and targets for a R and D project, monitoring of a given area by a public agency, and evaluation of the future competitive situation for a company. This paper gives a brief introduction to the field of technological forecasting especially in relation to the strategic planning process...... as the essential phase where decisions concerning introduction of new technology are taken in companies. It includes as well a description of the problems related to the marketing area and of methods applicable in practising technological forecasting....

  10. Research and Development for Technology Evolution Potential Forecasting System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Changqing; Cao, Shukun; Wang, Yuzeng; Ai, Changsheng; Ze, Xiangbo

    Technology forecasting is a powerful weapon for many enterprises to gain an animate future. Evolutionary potential radar plot is a necessary step of some valuable methods to help the technology managers with right technical strategy. A software system for Technology Evolution Potential Forecasting (TEPF) with automatic radar plot drawing is introduced in this paper. The framework of the system and the date structure describing the concrete evolution pattern are illustrated in details. And the algorithm for radar plot drawing is researched. It is proved that the TEPF system is an effective tool during the technology strategy analyzing process with a referenced case study.

  11. Forecasting the impact of virtual environment technology on maintenance training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlager, Mark S.; Boman, Duane; Piantanida, Tom; Stephenson, Robert

    1993-01-01

    To assist NASA and the Air Force in determining how and when to invest in virtual environment (VE) technology for maintenance training, we identified possible roles for VE technology in such training, assessed its cost-effectiveness relative to existing technologies, and formulated recommendations for a research agenda that would address instructional and system development issues involved in fielding a VE training system. In the first phase of the study, we surveyed VE developers to forecast capabilities, maturity, and estimated costs for VE component technologies. We then identified maintenance tasks and their training costs through interviews with maintenance technicians, instructors, and training developers. Ten candidate tasks were selected from two classes of maintenance tasks (seven aircraft maintenance and three space maintenance) using five criteria developed to identify types of tasks most likely to benefit from VE training. Three tasks were used as specific cases for cost-benefit analysis. In formulating research recommendations, we considered three aspects of feasibility: technological considerations, cost-effectiveness, and anticipated R&D efforts. In this paper, we describe the major findings in each of these areas and suggest research efforts that we believe will help achieve the goal of a cost-effective VE maintenance training system by the next decade.

  12. Forecastability as a Design Criterion in Wind Resource Assessment: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, J.; Hodge, B. M.

    2014-04-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to include the wind power forecasting ability, or 'forecastability,' of a site as a design criterion in wind resource assessment and wind power plant design stages. The Unrestricted Wind Farm Layout Optimization (UWFLO) methodology is adopted to maximize the capacity factor of a wind power plant. The 1-hour-ahead persistence wind power forecasting method is used to characterize the forecastability of a potential wind power plant, thereby partially quantifying the integration cost. A trade-off between the maximum capacity factor and the forecastability is investigated.

  13. Skill assessment for an operational algal bloom forecast system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stumpf, Richard P; Tomlinson, Michelle C; Calkins, Julie A; Kirkpatrick, Barbara; Fisher, Kathleen; Nierenberg, Kate; Currier, Robert; Wynne, Timothy T

    2009-02-20

    An operational forecast system for harmful algal blooms (HABs) in southwest Florida is analyzed for forecasting skill. The HABs, caused by the toxic dinoflagellate, Karenia brevis, lead to shellfish toxicity and to respiratory irritation. In addition to predicting new blooms and their extent, HAB forecasts are made twice weekly during a bloom event, using a combination of satellite derived image products, wind predictions, and a rule-based model derived from previous observations and research. These forecasts include: identification, intensification, transport, extent, and impact; the latter being the most significant to the public. Identification involves identifying new blooms as HABs and is validated against an operational monitoring program involving water sampling. Intensification forecasts, which are much less frequently made, can only be evaluated with satellite data on mono-specific blooms. Extent and transport forecasts of HABs are also evaluated against the water samples. Due to the resolution of the forecasts and available validation data, skill cannot be resolved at scales finer than 30 km. Initially, respiratory irritation forecasts were analyzed using anecdotal information, the only available data, which had a bias toward major respiratory events leading to a forecast accuracy exceeding 90%. When a systematic program of twice-daily observations from lifeguards was implemented, the forecast could be meaningfully assessed. The results show that the forecasts identify the occurrence of respiratory events at all lifeguard beaches 70% of the time. However, a high rate (80%) of false positive forecasts occurred at any given beach. As the forecasts were made at half to whole county level, the resolution of the validation data was reduced to county level, reducing false positives to 22% (accuracy of 78%). The study indicates the importance of systematic sampling, even when using qualitative descriptors, the use of validation resolution to evaluate forecast

  14. Skill assessment for an operational algal bloom forecast system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stumpf, Richard P.; Tomlinson, Michelle C.; Calkins, Julie A.; Kirkpatrick, Barbara; Fisher, Kathleen; Nierenberg, Kate; Currier, Robert; Wynne, Timothy T.

    2010-01-01

    An operational forecast system for harmful algal blooms (HABs) in southwest Florida is analyzed for forecasting skill. The HABs, caused by the toxic dinoflagellate, Karenia brevis, lead to shellfish toxicity and to respiratory irritation. In addition to predicting new blooms and their extent, HAB forecasts are made twice weekly during a bloom event, using a combination of satellite derived image products, wind predictions, and a rule-based model derived from previous observations and research. These forecasts include: identification, intensification, transport, extent, and impact; the latter being the most significant to the public. Identification involves identifying new blooms as HABs and is validated against an operational monitoring program involving water sampling. Intensification forecasts, which are much less frequently made, can only be evaluated with satellite data on mono-specific blooms. Extent and transport forecasts of HABs are also evaluated against the water samples. Due to the resolution of the forecasts and available validation data, skill cannot be resolved at scales finer than 30 km. Initially, respiratory irritation forecasts were analyzed using anecdotal information, the only available data, which had a bias toward major respiratory events leading to a forecast accuracy exceeding 90%. When a systematic program of twice-daily observations from lifeguards was implemented, the forecast could be meaningfully assessed. The results show that the forecasts identify the occurrence of respiratory events at all lifeguard beaches 70% of the time. However, a high rate (80%) of false positive forecasts occurred at any given beach. As the forecasts were made at half to whole county level, the resolution of the validation data was reduced to county level, reducing false positives to 22% (accuracy of 78%). The study indicates the importance of systematic sampling, even when using qualitative descriptors, the use of validation resolution to evaluate forecast

  15. Uncertainty quantification and reliability assessment in operational oil spill forecast modeling system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Xianlong; Hodges, Ben R; Feng, Dongyu; Liu, Qixiao

    2017-03-15

    As oil transport increasing in the Texas bays, greater risks of ship collisions will become a challenge, yielding oil spill accidents as a consequence. To minimize the ecological damage and optimize rapid response, emergency managers need to be informed with how fast and where oil will spread as soon as possible after a spill. The state-of-the-art operational oil spill forecast modeling system improves the oil spill response into a new stage. However uncertainty due to predicted data inputs often elicits compromise on the reliability of the forecast result, leading to misdirection in contingency planning. Thus understanding the forecast uncertainty and reliability become significant. In this paper, Monte Carlo simulation is implemented to provide parameters to generate forecast probability maps. The oil spill forecast uncertainty is thus quantified by comparing the forecast probability map and the associated hindcast simulation. A HyosPy-based simple statistic model is developed to assess the reliability of an oil spill forecast in term of belief degree. The technologies developed in this study create a prototype for uncertainty and reliability analysis in numerical oil spill forecast modeling system, providing emergency managers to improve the capability of real time operational oil spill response and impact assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Value assessment of a global hydrological forecasting system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Candogan Yossef, N.; Winsemius, H.; van Beek, L. P. H.; van Beek, E.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

    2012-04-01

    The inter-annual variability in streamflow presents risks and opportunities in the management of water resources systems. Reliable hydrological forecasts, effective communication and proper response allow several sectors to make more informed management decisions. In many developing regions of the world, there are no efficient hydrological forecasting systems. A global forecasting system which indicates increased probabilities of streamflow excesses or shortages over long lead-times can be of great value for these regions. FEWS-World system is developed for this purpose. It is based on the Delft-FEWS (flood early warning system) developed by Deltares and incorporates the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. This study investigates the skill and value of FEWS-World. Skill is defined as the ability of the system to forecast discharge extremes; and value as its usefulness for possible users and ultimately for affected populations. Skill is assessed in historical simulation mode as well as retroactive forecasting mode. For the assessment in historical simulation mode a meteorological forcing based on observations from the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia and the ERA-40 reanalysis of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) was used. For the assessment in retroactive forecasting mode the model was forced with ensemble forecasts from the seasonal forecast archives of ECMWF. The eventual goal is to transfer FEWS-World to operational forecasting mode, where the system will use operational seasonal forecasts from ECMWF. The results will be disseminated on the internet, and hopefully provide information that is valuable for users in data and model-poor regions of the world. The results of the preliminary assessment show that although forecasting skill decreases with increasing lead time, the value of forecasts does not necessarily decrease. The forecast requirements and response options of several water related sectors was

  17. Technological Forecasting: Methodology Embrapa Brazilian Company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eliane Fernandes Pietrovski

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Structural, economic and social changes are present in organizations. One of the strategies for decision-making, which leads to organizational policies, is the construction of feasible and doable technological scenarios that enable innovations to trigger the processes of technological change. This study to analyze the prospect of technological scenarios in the Brazilian Agricultural Research Agency a public organization of Research, Development and Innovation, based on scenario building in its operating environment. For the methodological procedures, a systemic review addressing the problem of searching for qualitative bias was developed. Taking this study’s point of view, the research is exploratory and descriptive. The sources of data collection were primary and secondary. The technical consistency of prospective scenarios for the company was highlighted in the results of this study, as this was the object of this analysis. Through the collected data it was possible to verify the inferences between literature and the applied method. [JEL Classification: O310].

  18. Reference Scenario Forecasting: A New Approach to Transport Project Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen; Skougaard, Britt Zoëga

    2010-01-01

    forecasting (RSF) frame. The RSF is anchored in the cost-benefit analysis (CBA), thus, it provides decision-makers with a quantitative mean of assessing the transport infrastructure project. First, the RSF method introduces uncertainties within the CBA by applying Optimism Bias uplifts on the preliminary......This paper presents a new approach to transport project assessment in terms of feasibility risk assessment and reference class forecasting. Normally, transport project assessment is based upon a cost-benefit approach where evaluation criteria such as net present values are obtained. Recent research...... distribution functions. The latter have been placed and ultimately simulated on the inaccuracies of determining demand forecasts, i.e. leading to the travel time savings and ticket revenues of the project. Finally, RSF makes use of scenario forecasting where trend scenarios such as economic growth and level...

  19. Diagnostic measures for assessing numerical forecasts of African Easterly Waves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicole Sander

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available The utility of a number of diagnostic measures for assessing forecasts of the synoptic-scale flow over West Africa and the eastern Atlantic is investigated. The forecasts were carried out using the COSMO Model provided by the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD for a three week period in 2004. During this period a number of African Easterly Waves (AEWs were observed, three of which subsequently developed into the Hurricanes Danielle, Frances and Ivan. A sequence of 72 h forecasts were initialised twice daily from the DWD global analysis, using analyses and 12 h forecasts for the boundary conditions. A variety of diagnostics were used to assess the forecasts including objective analyses of jet and trough axes and Hovmoeller plots. The zonal wind was averaged along the objectively analysed jet axes over West Africa and the Atlantic for the forecasts and analyses. This provides a robust measure of the jet strength that takes into account the spatial variability of the jet location and is not tied to either the maximum wind speed or a particular geographic location. Application of this measure to assess the forecasts showed that overall the jet strength was well represented. The largest errors were associated with local jet variations due to misrepresentation of the African Easterly Waves in the forecasts. The objectively analysed trough axes are used to give a visual indication of the forecast quality. Hovmoeller plots proved useful for assessing the evolution of the AEWs, although the interpretation was difficult when convection in the model produced small-scale but strong vorticity anomalies. The results of this study will be applied to future case studies based on the African Monsoon: Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA special observing periods.

  20. Operational flash flood forecasting platform based on grid technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thierion, V.; Ayral, P.-A.; Angelini, V.; Sauvagnargues-Lesage, S.; Nativi, S.; Payrastre, O.

    2009-04-01

    Flash flood events of south of France such as the 8th and 9th September 2002 in the Grand Delta territory caused important economic and human damages. Further to this catastrophic hydrological situation, a reform of flood warning services have been initiated (set in 2006). Thus, this political reform has transformed the 52 existing flood warning services (SAC) in 22 flood forecasting services (SPC), in assigning them territories more hydrological consistent and new effective hydrological forecasting mission. Furthermore, national central service (SCHAPI) has been created to ease this transformation and support local services in their new objectives. New functioning requirements have been identified: - SPC and SCHAPI carry the responsibility to clearly disseminate to public organisms, civil protection actors and population, crucial hydrologic information to better anticipate potential dramatic flood event, - a new effective hydrological forecasting mission to these flood forecasting services seems essential particularly for the flash floods phenomenon. Thus, models improvement and optimization was one of the most critical requirements. Initially dedicated to support forecaster in their monitoring mission, thanks to measuring stations and rainfall radar images analysis, hydrological models have to become more efficient in their capacity to anticipate hydrological situation. Understanding natural phenomenon occuring during flash floods mainly leads present hydrological research. Rather than trying to explain such complex processes, the presented research try to manage the well-known need of computational power and data storage capacities of these services. Since few years, Grid technology appears as a technological revolution in high performance computing (HPC) allowing large-scale resource sharing, computational power using and supporting collaboration across networks. Nowadays, EGEE (Enabling Grids for E-science in Europe) project represents the most important

  1. An improved market penetration model for wind energy technology forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lund, P.D. [Helsinki Univ. of Technology, Espoo (Finland). Advanced Energy Systems

    1995-12-31

    An improved market penetration model with application to wind energy forecasting is presented. In the model, a technology diffusion model and manufacturing learning curve are combined. Based on a 85% progress ratio that was found for European wind manufactures and on wind market statistics, an additional wind power capacity of ca 4 GW is needed in Europe to reach a 30 % price reduction. A full breakthrough to low-cost utility bulk power markets could be achieved at a 24 GW level. (author)

  2. Technology Reconciliation in the Remote Sensing ERA of United States Civilian Weather Forecasting: 1957 -1987.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Courain, Margaret Eileen

    This dissertation seeks to advance an understanding of the management of a major technological change in meteorology. The study examines the connection between changes in production and real-time use of data products derived from remote -sensing data collection and the evolution of U.S. civilian weather forecasting 1957-1987. The role of data collection in weather forecasting throughout history is examined, giving most attention to the 1957-1987 period. Critical to the real-time use of remote-sensing data was technology reconciliation. As defined by the author, it is the function or process by which data products and information derived from a new technology are made consistent or congruent with the existing data representations of a science in order to be used effectively. No model had been developed for a technology reconciliation process, or definition of the major role technology reconciliators played in the 30-year evolution of the science of weather forecasting. In order to assess the new remote-sensing data resource and its use in U.S. civilian weather forecasting, a Data Accountability and Review Technique (DART) was developed by the author in 1989. This technique was used to identify 16 of the technology reconciliators who developed and reconciled 25 new remote-sensing data products with the weather charts, maps and computer models of the National Weather Service. In five separate program teams, they were responsible for 15 improvements in the products--forecasts--and 18 improvement in the process of weather forecasting. A model of the technology reconciliation is proposed which can be applied to understanding the contemporary history of other sciences. The model, as well as the methods developed by the author to recognize the process of technology reconciliation has a much more general applicability beyond the sciences. Any field implementing new technology that promises to improve its whole way of working will be faced with the task of technology

  3. Uncertainty Assessment: Reservoir Inflow Forecasting with Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts and HEC-HMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sheng-Chi Yang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available During an extreme event, having accurate inflow forecasting with enough lead time helps reservoir operators decrease the impact of floods downstream. Furthermore, being able to efficiently operate reservoirs could help maximize flood protection while saving water for drier times of the year. This study combines ensemble quantitative precipitation forecasts and a hydrological model to provide a 3-day reservoir inflow in the Shihmen Reservoir, Taiwan. A total of six historical typhoons were used for model calibration, validation, and application. An understanding of cascaded uncertainties from the numerical weather model through the hydrological model is necessary for a better use for forecasting. This study thus conducted an assessment of forecast uncertainty on magnitude and timing of peak and cumulative inflows. It found that using the ensemble-mean had less uncertainty than randomly selecting individual member. The inflow forecasts with shorter length of cumulative time had a higher uncertainty. The results showed that using the ensemble precipitation forecasts with the hydrological model would have the advantage of extra lead time and serve as a valuable reference for operating reservoirs.

  4. Forecasting of innovative activity on the basis of application of technology of Foresight

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nazarova Natalia Leonidovna

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available In article the basic questions of forecasting of innovative activity of economic systems are considered. Forsyte's bases are considered. Necessity, importance, success of application of technology of Forsyte for forecasting of innovative activity are proved.

  5. The social function of technology assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huddle, F. P.

    1972-01-01

    The problem of preserving the uneasy balance between a dynamic society and the equilibrium of man-environment society is discussed. Four sets of activities involved in technology assessment are considered: (1) Technology forecasting is necessary to warn of future dangers and opportunities, for effective timing, and to identify tradeoffs and alternatives. But forecasting is also chancy at best. (2) Social indicators need to be developed for the characterization of social status and measurement of social progress, as well as a better understanding of social needs. (3) With respect to technology assessment, the conflict between profitable directions of innovations and socially desirable directions is described, and a systematic way is needed to determine in advance what is technologically feasible to meet social needs. (4) National goals with respect to scientific and technological developments are also required.

  6. Innovation Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-11-01

    relating to “ injectors ”) to develop a map of the related technologies [33.] Another approach is to develop a “tree” showing a system branching into its...additional terms such as “trend,” “forecast,” “ delphi ,” “assessment,” and so forth may call up other forecasts and assessments relating to the topic...present and future engine technologies. A preliminary search (Step 1, Table 5) located prior forecasts, in particular, a Delphi study [36]. The Delphi

  7. Performance Assessment of Hydrological Models Considering Acceptable Forecast Error Threshold

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qianjin Dong

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available It is essential to consider the acceptable threshold in the assessment of a hydrological model because of the scarcity of research in the hydrology community and errors do not necessarily cause risk. Two forecast errors, including rainfall forecast error and peak flood forecast error, have been studied based on the reliability theory. The first order second moment (FOSM and bound methods are used to identify the reliability. Through the case study of the Dahuofang (DHF Reservoir, it is shown that the correlation between these two errors has great influence on the reliability index of hydrological model. In particular, the reliability index of the DHF hydrological model decreases with the increasing correlation. Based on the reliability theory, the proposed performance evaluation framework incorporating the acceptable forecast error threshold and correlation among the multiple errors can be used to evaluate the performance of a hydrological model and to quantify the uncertainties of a hydrological model output.

  8. Recent advances in flood forecasting and flood risk assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Arduino

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent large floods in Europe have led to increased interest in research and development of flood forecasting systems. Some of these events have been provoked by some of the wettest rainfall periods on record which has led to speculation that such extremes are attributable in some measure to anthropogenic global warming and represent the beginning of a period of higher flood frequency. Whilst current trends in extreme event statistics will be difficult to discern, conclusively, there has been a substantial increase in the frequency of high floods in the 20th century for basins greater than 2x105 km2. There is also increasing that anthropogenic forcing of climate change may lead to an increased probability of extreme precipitation and, hence, of flooding. There is, therefore, major emphasis on the improvement of operational flood forecasting systems in Europe, with significant European Community spending on research and development on prototype forecasting systems and flood risk management projects. This Special Issue synthesises the most relevant scientific and technological results presented at the International Conference on Flood Forecasting in Europe held in Rotterdam from 3-5 March 2003. During that meeting 150 scientists, forecasters and stakeholders from four continents assembled to present their work and current operational best practice and to discuss future directions of scientific and technological efforts in flood prediction and prevention. The papers presented at the conference fall into seven themes, as follows.

  9. Assessing the need for better forecasting and observability of pv

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alet, Pierre-Jean; Efthymiou, Venizelos; Graditi, Giorgio

    2017-01-01

    In its review of the challenges and opportunities associated with massive deployment of solar PV generation, the Grid integration working group of the ETIP PV identified forecasting and observability as critical technologies for the planning and operation of the power system with large PV penetra...

  10. Forecasting and Technology Management: Statistical Theory and Methodological Issues

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henning

    The degree of development in the technical capability of many new devices and materials over their predecessors often is in multiples of improvement. These gains in performance are so great that they abruptly and drastically alter the means, effects, time, or costs of doing things. Thus, they dis......The degree of development in the technical capability of many new devices and materials over their predecessors often is in multiples of improvement. These gains in performance are so great that they abruptly and drastically alter the means, effects, time, or costs of doing things. Thus...... technology. The conclusion is that widespread awareness of the growing force of technology and increasing concern over its impact means that forecasting of technological development and consequences is absolutely essential in many managerial decision situations. Examples cover e.g. identification...

  11. Extravehicular Activity (EVA) Technology Development Status and Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chullen, Cinda; Westheimer, David T.

    2010-01-01

    Beginning in Fiscal Year (FY) 2011, Extravehicular activity (EVA) technology development became a technology foundational domain under a new program Enabling Technology Development and Demonstration. The goal of the EVA technology effort is to further develop technologies that will be used to demonstrate a robust EVA system that has application for a variety of future missions including microgravity and surface EVA. Overall the objectives will be reduce system mass, reduce consumables and maintenance, increase EVA hardware robustness and life, increase crew member efficiency and autonomy, and enable rapid vehicle egress and ingress. Over the past several years, NASA realized a tremendous increase in EVA system development as part of the Exploration Technology Development Program and the Constellation Program. The evident demand for efficient and reliable EVA technologies, particularly regenerable technologies was apparent under these former programs and will continue to be needed as future mission opportunities arise. The technological need for EVA in space has been realized over the last several decades by the Gemini, Apollo, Skylab, Space Shuttle, and the International Space Station (ISS) programs. EVAs were critical to the success of these programs. Now with the ISS extension to 2028 in conjunction with a current forecasted need of at least eight EVAs per year, the EVA technology life and limited availability of the EMUs will become a critical issue eventually. The current Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU) has vastly served EVA demands by performing critical operations to assemble the ISS and provide repairs of satellites such as the Hubble Space Telescope. However, as the life of ISS and the vision for future mission opportunities are realized, a new EVA systems capability could be an option for the future mission applications building off of the technology development over the last several years. Besides ISS, potential mission applications include EVAs for

  12. Reference Scenario Forecasting: A New Approach to Transport Project Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen; Skougaard, Britt Zoëga

    2010-01-01

    construction cost estimates. Hereafter, a quantitative risk analysis is provided making use of Monte Carlo simulation. This stochastic approach facilitates random input parameters based upon reference class forecasting, hence, a parameter data fit has been performed in order to obtain validated probability...... has however proved that substantial inaccuracies are present when obtaining the monetary input to the cost-benefit analysis, particularly as concerns the construction costs and demand forecasts. This paper proposes a new approach in order to assess these biases in a so-called reference scenario...... forecasting (RSF) frame. The RSF is anchored in the cost-benefit analysis (CBA), thus, it provides decision-makers with a quantitative mean of assessing the transport infrastructure project. First, the RSF method introduces uncertainties within the CBA by applying Optimism Bias uplifts on the preliminary...

  13. Case studies on forecasting for innovative technologies: frequent revisions improve accuracy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lerner, Jeffrey C; Robertson, Diane C; Goldstein, Sara M

    2015-02-01

    Health technology forecasting is designed to provide reliable predictions about costs, utilization, diffusion, and other market realities before the technologies enter routine clinical use. In this article we address three questions central to forecasting's usefulness: Are early forecasts sufficiently accurate to help providers acquire the most promising technology and payers to set effective coverage policies? What variables contribute to inaccurate forecasts? How can forecasters manage the variables to improve accuracy? We analyzed forecasts published between 2007 and 2010 by the ECRI Institute on four technologies: single-room proton beam radiation therapy for various cancers; digital breast tomosynthesis imaging technology for breast cancer screening; transcatheter aortic valve replacement for serious heart valve disease; and minimally invasive robot-assisted surgery for various cancers. We then examined revised ECRI forecasts published in 2013 (digital breast tomosynthesis) and 2014 (the other three topics) to identify inaccuracies in the earlier forecasts and explore why they occurred. We found that five of twenty early predictions were inaccurate when compared with the updated forecasts. The inaccuracies pertained to two technologies that had more time-sensitive variables to consider. The case studies suggest that frequent revision of forecasts could improve accuracy, especially for complex technologies whose eventual use is governed by multiple interactive factors. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

  14. Fusion of Hurricane Models and Observations: Developing the Technology to Improve the Forecasts Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Develop the technology to provide the fusion of observations and operational model simulations to help improve the understanding and forecasting of hurricane...

  15. Advocacy and technology assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, E. M.

    1975-01-01

    A highly structured treatment is presented of adversarial systems as they apply to technology assessment. One approach to the problem of adequate criteria of assessment focuses upon the internal operations of assessment entities; operations include problem perception, problem formulation, selection, utilization, determination, and evaluation. Potential contributions of advocacy as a mode of inquiry in technology are discussed; advocacy is evaluated by representative sets of criteria of adequate assessment which include participant criteria, perspectives criteria, situations criteria, base values criteria, and strategies criteria.

  16. Monitoring and Forecasting Reference Evapotranspiration for Food Security Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, S.; Hobbins, M.; McEvoy, D.; Husak, G. J.; Dewes, C.; McNally, A.; Huntington, J. L.; Funk, C. C.; Verdin, J. P.

    2016-12-01

    Reference evapotranspiration (Ref ET; driven by temperature, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation) and precipitation are the two most important climatic drivers of seasonal crop yields, which are directly associated with food security in several parts of the globe. In the last decade or so, significant strides have been made by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) team and collaborators, towards improving precipitation monitoring. However, efforts to improve Ref ET monitoring and forecasting have thus far lagged by comparison. This presentation describes ongoing activities of the FEWS NET team and collaborators towards the development and implementation of a near-real time Ref ET monitoring and forecasting system, focusing primarily on the food-insecure FEWS NET countries. Due to a lack of in situ observations of meteorological forcings, the Ref ET monitoring dataset, which is calculated using the Penman-Monteith formulation of the ASCE Standardized Reference ET, uses NASA's MERRA-2 atmospheric forcings and is spatially downscaled using a finer resolution climatology of the International Water Management Institute global PET dataset. Ref ET forecasts (up to 6 months lead time) are calculated using seasonal climate forecasts from NCEP's CFSv2 and NASA's GEOS-5 models. Long-term (since early 1980s through 2015) evaluation of Ref ET monitoring and forecast datasets and the approach to provide operational updates of both datasets in near-real time, are summarized in this presentation. As a case study, the influence of improved Ref ET monitoring and Ref ET forecasts on crop yield estimates and food security outlooks in East Africa is also examined using the Water Requirement Satisfaction Index model. In summary, this presentation highlights the importance of monitoring and forecasting Ref ET for food security assessments and early warning.

  17. ASSESSING AND FORECASTING, BY PLAY, NATURAL GAS ULTIMATE RECOVERY GROWTH AND QUANTIFYING THE ROLE OF TECHNOLOGY ADVANCEMENTS IN THE TEXAS GULF COAST BASIN AND EAST TEXAS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    William L. Fisher; Eugene M. Kim

    2000-12-01

    A detailed natural gas ultimate recovery growth (URG) analysis of the Texas Gulf Coast Basin and East Texas has been undertaken. The key to such analysis was determined to be the disaggregation of the resource base to the play level. A play is defined as a conceptual geologic unit having one or more reservoirs that can be genetically related on the basis of depositional origin of the reservoir, structural or trap style, source rocks and hydrocarbon generation, migration mechanism, seals for entrapment, and type of hydrocarbon produced. Plays are the geologically homogeneous subdivision of the universe of petroleum pools within a basin. Therefore, individual plays have unique geological features that can be used as a conceptual model that incorporates geologic processes and depositional environments to explain the distribution of petroleum. Play disaggregation revealed important URG trends for the major natural gas fields in the Texas Gulf Coast Basin and East Texas. Although significant growth and future potential were observed for the major fields, important URG trends were masked by total, aggregated analysis based on a broad geological province. When disaggregated by plays, significant growth and future potential were displayed for plays that were associated with relatively recently discovered fields, deeper reservoir depths, high structural complexities due to fault compartmentalization, reservoirs designated as tight gas/low-permeability, and high initial reservoir pressures. Continued technology applications and advancements are crucial in achieving URG potential in these plays.

  18. Transport project evaluation: feasibility risk assessment and scenario forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2017-01-01

    on the preliminary construction cost estimates. Hereafter, a quantitative risk analysis is provided making use of Monte Carlo simulation. This approach facilitates random input parameters based upon reference class forecasting, hence, a parameter data fit has been performed in order to obtain validated probability......) are obtained. Recent research has however proved that substantial inaccuracies are present when obtaining the monetary input to the CBA, particularly as concerns the construction costs and demand forecasts. This paper proposes a new approach in order to address these inaccuracies in a so-called Reference...... Scenario Forecasting (RSF) frame. The RSF is anchored in the cost-benefit analysis; thus, it provides decision-makers with a quantitative mean of assessing the transport infrastructure project. First, the RSF method introduces uncertainties within the CBA by applying Optimism Bias uplifts...

  19. Uncertainty assessment via Bayesian revision of ensemble streamflow predictions in the operational river Rhine forecasting system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reggiani, P.; Renner, M.; Weerts, A.H.; Van Gelder, P.A.H.J.M.

    2009-01-01

    Ensemble streamflow forecasts obtained by using hydrological models with ensemble weather products are becoming more frequent in operational flow forecasting. The uncertainty of the ensemble forecast needs to be assessed for these products to become useful in forecasting operations. A comprehensive

  20. Uncertainty assessment via Bayesian revision of ensemble streamflow predictions in the operational river Rhine forecasting system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reggiani, P.; Renner, M.; Weerts, A.H.; Van Gelder, P.A.H.J.M.

    2009-01-01

    Ensemble streamflow forecasts obtained by using hydrological models with ensemble weather products are becoming more frequent in operational flow forecasting. The uncertainty of the ensemble forecast needs to be assessed for these products to become useful in forecasting operations. A comprehensive

  1. Forecasting and observability: critical technologies for system operations with high PV penetration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alet, Pierre-Jean; Efthymiou, Venizelos; Graditi, Giorgio

    2016-01-01

    Forecasting and monitoring technologies for photovoltaics are required on different spatial and temporal scales by multiple actors, from the owners of PV systems to transmission system operators. In this paper the Grid integration working group of the European Technology and Innovation Platform...... – Photovoltaics (ETIP PV) reviews the different use cases for these technologies, their current status, and the need for future developments. Power system operations require a real-time view of PV production for managing power reserves and for feeding shortterm forecasts. They also require forecasts on all...... for a cost/benefit analysis since the forecasting error can be linked to the prices charged for energy imbalance...

  2. An ecosystem-based fisheries assessment and forecasting approach

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Chang Ik

    2009-01-01

    A comprehensive ecosystem-based approach is required to holistically assess, forecast and manage fisheries resources and their associated habitats by considering ecological interactions of target species with predators, competitors, and prey species, interactions between fishes and their habitats, and the effects of fishing on these processes. A pragmatic ecosystem-based approach was developed for the assessment of fisheries resources involving three management objectives: sustainability, bio...

  3. Forecasting and observability: critical technologies for system operations with high PV penetration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alet, Pierre-Jean; Efthymiou, Venizelos; Graditi, Giorgio

    2016-01-01

    Forecasting and monitoring technologies for photovoltaics are required on different spatial and temporal scales by multiple actors, from the owners of PV systems to transmission system operators. In this paper the Grid integration working group of the European Technology and Innovation Platform –...... for a cost/benefit analysis since the forecasting error can be linked to the prices charged for energy imbalance......Forecasting and monitoring technologies for photovoltaics are required on different spatial and temporal scales by multiple actors, from the owners of PV systems to transmission system operators. In this paper the Grid integration working group of the European Technology and Innovation Platform...... – Photovoltaics (ETIP PV) reviews the different use cases for these technologies, their current status, and the need for future developments. Power system operations require a real-time view of PV production for managing power reserves and for feeding shortterm forecasts. They also require forecasts on all...

  4. Robotic Technology: An Assessment and Forecast,

    Science.gov (United States)

    1984-07-01

    resources of the Milan Polytechnic has been the Laboratorlo per Ricerche de Dinamica dei Sistemi e di Bioingogneria (LADSEB), a national institute for...robotic assembly. Due to the combination of large volume production and pre-existing familiarity with robots# the automotive industry is likely to be an

  5. Gray comprehensive assessment and optimal selection of water consumption forecasting model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    A comprehensive assessing method based on the principle of the gray system theory and gray relational grade analysis was put forward to optimize water consumption forecasting models. The method provides a better accuracy for the assessment and the optimal selection of the water consumption forecasting models. The results show that the forecasting model built on this comprehensive assessing method presents better self-adaptability and accuracy in forecasting.

  6. Information technology resources assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stevens, D.F. [ed.

    1992-01-01

    This year`s Information Technology Resources Assessment (ITRA) is something of a departure from traditional practice. Past assessments have concentrated on developments in fundamental technology, particularly with respect to hardware. They form an impressive chronicle of decreasing cycle times, increasing densities, decreasing costs (or, equivalently, increasing capacity and capability per dollar spent), and new system architectures, with a leavening of operating systems and languages. Past assessments have aimed -- and succeeded -- at putting information technology squarely in the spotlight; by contrast, in the first part of this assessment, we would like to move it to the background, and encourage the reader to reflect less on the continuing technological miracles of miniaturization in space and time and more on the second- and third-order implications of some possible workplace applications of these miracles. This Information Technology Resources Assessment is intended to provide a sense of technological direction for planners in projecting the hardware, software, and human resources necessary to support the diverse IT requirements of the various components of the DOE community. It is also intended to provide a sense of our new understanding of the place of IT in our organizations.

  7. Information technology resources assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stevens, D.F. (ed.)

    1992-01-01

    This year's Information Technology Resources Assessment (ITRA) is something of a departure from traditional practice. Past assessments have concentrated on developments in fundamental technology, particularly with respect to hardware. They form an impressive chronicle of decreasing cycle times, increasing densities, decreasing costs (or, equivalently, increasing capacity and capability per dollar spent), and new system architectures, with a leavening of operating systems and languages. Past assessments have aimed -- and succeeded -- at putting information technology squarely in the spotlight; by contrast, in the first part of this assessment, we would like to move it to the background, and encourage the reader to reflect less on the continuing technological miracles of miniaturization in space and time and more on the second- and third-order implications of some possible workplace applications of these miracles. This Information Technology Resources Assessment is intended to provide a sense of technological direction for planners in projecting the hardware, software, and human resources necessary to support the diverse IT requirements of the various components of the DOE community. It is also intended to provide a sense of our new understanding of the place of IT in our organizations.

  8. Health care technology assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodman, Clifford

    1994-12-01

    The role of technology in the cost of health care is a primary issue in current debates concerning national health care reform. The broad scope of studies for understanding technological impacts is known as technology assessment. Technology policy makers can improve their decision making by becoming more aware, and taking greater advantage, of key trends in health care technology assessment (HCTA). HCTA is the systematic evaluation of the properties, impacts, and other attributes of health care technologies, including: technical performance; clinical safety and efficacy/effectiveness; cost-effectiveness and other economic attributes; appropriate circumstances/indications for use; and social, legal, ethical, and political impacts. The main purpose of HCTA is to inform technology-related policy making in health care. Among the important trends in HCTA are: (1) proliferation of HCTA groups in the public and private sectors; (2) higher standards for scientific evidence concerning technologies; (3) methodological development in cost analyses, health-related quality of life measurement, and consolidation of available scientific evidence (e.g., meta-analysis); (4) emphasis on improved data on how well technologies work in routine practice and for traditionally under-represented patient groups; (5) development of priority-setting methods; (6) greater reliance on medical informatics to support and disseminate HCTA findings.

  9. 基于事实型数据的科技评价与预测方法研究:以DNA测序技术为例%Evidence-Based Assessment and Forecasting for Science and Technology:the Case of DNA Sequencing Technology

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张旭; 佟贺丰; 傅俊英

    2011-01-01

    基于事实型数据的科技评价与预测研究方法,将定性和定量方法有机地结合,能够更加精确地分析科学技术的发展过程、现状及其未来趋势.本文以DNA测序技术为例进行实证研究,以展示基于事实型数据的科技评价与预测方法的研究思路及过程.%Evidence-based S & T policy research,which integrates qualitative and quantitative methods, could analyze S&T process, current status as well as trends in the future more accurately. This paper illuminates research methodology and process of S&T assessment and forecasting based on evidence by taking the case of DNA sequencing technology.

  10. Assessment of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from Operational NWP Models (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sapiano, M. R.

    2010-12-01

    Previous work has shown that satellite and numerical model estimates of precipitation have complimentary strengths, with satellites having greater skill at detecting convective precipitation events and model estimates having greater skill at detecting stratiform precipitation. This is due in part to the challenges associated with retrieving stratiform precipitation from satellites and the difficulty in resolving sub-grid scale processes in models. These complimentary strengths can be exploited to obtain new merged satellite/model datasets, and several such datasets have been constructed using reanalysis data. Whilst reanalysis data are stable in a climate sense, they also have relatively coarse resolution compared to the satellite estimates (many of which are now commonly available at quarter degree resolution) and they necessarily use fixed forecast systems that are not state-of-the-art. An alternative to reanalysis data is to use Operational Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model estimates, which routinely produce precipitation with higher resolution and using the most modern techniques. Such estimates have not been combined with satellite precipitation and their relative skill has not been sufficiently assessed beyond model validation. The aim of this work is to assess the information content of the models relative to satellite estimates with the goal of improving techniques for merging these data types. To that end, several operational NWP precipitation forecasts have been compared to satellite and in situ data and their relative skill in forecasting precipitation has been assessed. In particular, the relationship between precipitation forecast skill and other model variables will be explored to see if these other model variables can be used to estimate the skill of the model at a particular time. Such relationships would be provide a basis for determining weights and errors of any merged products.

  11. Forecasting, Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael A. Fosberg

    1987-01-01

    Future improvements in the meteorological forecasts used in fire management will come from improvements in three areas: observational systems, forecast techniques, and postprocessing of forecasts and better integration of this information into the fire management process.

  12. Technologies for Language Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burstein, Jill; And Others

    1996-01-01

    Reviews current and developing technology uses that are relevant to language assessment and discusses examples of recent linguistic applications from the laboratory at the Educational Testing Service. The processes of language test development are described and the functions they serve from the perspective of a large testing organization are…

  13. Performance assessment of models to forecast induced seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiemer, Stefan; Karvounis, Dimitrios; Zechar, Jeremy; Király, Eszter; Kraft, Toni; Pio Rinaldi, Antonio; Catalli, Flaminia; Mignan, Arnaud

    2015-04-01

    Managing and mitigating induced seismicity during reservoir stimulation and operation is a critical prerequisite for many GeoEnergy applications. We are currently developing and validating so called 'Adaptive Traffic Light Systems' (ATLS), fully probabilistic forecast models that integrate all relevant data on the fly into a time-dependent hazard and risk model. The combined model intrinsically considers both aleatory and model-uncertainties, the robustness of the forecast is maximized by using a dynamically update ensemble weighting. At the heart of the ATLS approach are a variety of forecast models that range from purely statistical models, such as flow-controlled Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) models, to models that consider various physical interaction mechanism (e.g., pore pressure changes, dynamic and static stress transfer, volumetric strain changes). The automated re-calibration of these models on the fly given data imperfection, degrees of freedom, and time-constraints is a sizable challenge, as is the validation of the models for applications outside of their calibrated range (different settings, larger magnitudes, changes in physical processes etc.). Here we present an overview of the status of the model development, calibration and validation. We also demonstrate how such systems can contribute to a quantitative risk assessment and mitigation of induced seismicity in a wide range of applications and time scales.

  14. Review of methods for forecasting the market penetration of new technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gilshannon, S.T.; Brown, D.R.

    1996-12-01

    In 1993 the DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EE) initiated a program called Quality Metrics. Quality Metrics was developed to measure the costs and benefits of technologies being developed by EE R&D programs. The impact of any new technology is directly related to its adoption by the market. The techniques employed to project market adoption are critical to measuring a new technology`s impact. Our purpose was to review current market penetration theories and models and develop a recommended approach for evaluating the market penetration of DOE technologies. The following commonly cited innovation diffusion theories were reviewed to identify analytical approaches relevant to new energy technologies: (1) the normal noncumulative adopter distribution method, (2) the Bass Model, (3) the Mansfield-Blackman Model, (4) the Fisher-Pry Model, (5) a meta-analysis of innovation diffusion studies. Of the theories reviewed, the Bass and Mansfield-Blackman models were found most applicable to forecasting the market penetration of electricity supply technologies. Their algorithms require input estimates which characterize the technology adoption behavior of the electricity supply industry. But, inadequate work has been done to quantify the technology adoption characteristics of this industry. The following energy technology market penetration models were also reviewed: (1) DOE`s Renewable Energy Penetration (REP) Model, (2) DOE`s Electricity Capacity Planning Submodule of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), (3) the Assessment of Energy Technologies (ASSET) model by Regional Economic Research, Inc., (4) the Market TREK model by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). The two DOE models were developed for electricity generation technologies whereas the Regional Economic Research and EPRI models were designed for demand- side energy technology markets. Therefore, the review and evaluation focused on the DOE models.

  15. COMPUTER MODELING AS ONE OF CONTEMPORARY METHODS OF FORECASTING IN PHARMACEUTICAL TECHNOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. O. Losenkova

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The work presents researches devoted to the forecasting of compatibility of additive and drug substances with a method of computer modeling for its use in composition elaboration and technology of transdermal therapeutic systems.

  16. Information technology resources assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Loken, S.C. [ed.

    1993-01-01

    The emphasis in Information Technology (IT) development has shifted from technology management to information management, and the tools of information management are increasingly at the disposal of end-users, people who deal with information. Moreover, the interactive capabilities of technologies such as hypertext, scientific visualization, virtual reality, video conferencing, and even database management systems have placed in the hands of users a significant amount of discretion over how these resources will be used. The emergence of high-performance networks, as well as network operating systems, improved interoperability, and platform independence of applications will eliminate technical barriers to the use of data, increase the power and range of resources that can be used cooperatively, and open up a wealth of possibilities for new applications. The very scope of these prospects for the immediate future is a problem for the IT planner or administrator. Technology procurement and implementation, integration of new technologies into the existing infrastructure, cost recovery and usage of networks and networked resources, training issues, and security concerns such as data protection and access to experiments are just some of the issues that need to be considered in the emerging IT environment. As managers we must use technology to improve competitiveness. When procuring new systems, we must take advantage of scalable resources. New resources such as distributed file systems can improve access to and efficiency of existing operating systems. In addition, we must assess opportunities to improve information worker productivity and information management through tedmologies such as distributed computational visualization and teleseminar applications.

  17. The Modeling and Forecasting of the Technological and Innovation Development of a Transition-Economy Country

    OpenAIRE

    Kononenko, Igor; Repin, Anton

    2006-01-01

    The rule of GDP change influence on the investment inflows into the country’s economy for transition-economy countries has been found. The method for forecasting the innovational and scientific-technological development of a country, based on consequent use of simulation model of innovational and scientific-technological development of a country and of the method of forecasting the investment inflows into economy has been developed. The method was tested on the Ukrainian statistical data for ...

  18. Computer-Aided Analysis of Patents for Product Technology Maturity Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Yanhong; Gan, Dequan; Guo, Yingchun; Zhang, Peng

    Product technology maturity foresting is vital for any enterprises to hold the chance for innovation and keep competitive for a long term. The Theory of Invention Problem Solving (TRIZ) is acknowledged both as a systematic methodology for innovation and a powerful tool for technology forecasting. Based on TRIZ, the state -of-the-art on the technology maturity of product and the limits of application are discussed. With the application of text mining and patent analysis technologies, this paper proposes a computer-aided approach for product technology maturity forecasting. It can overcome the shortcomings of the current methods.

  19. Past speculations of future health technologies: a description of technologies predicted in 15 forecasting studies published between 1986 and 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doos, Lucy; Packer, Claire; Ward, Derek; Simpson, Sue; Stevens, Andrew

    2017-07-31

    To describe and classify health technologies predicted in forecasting studies. A portrait describing health technologies predicted in 15 forecasting studies published between 1986 and 2010 that were identified in a previous systematic review. Health technologies are classified according to their type, purpose and clinical use; relating these to the original purpose and timing of the forecasting studies. All health-related technologies predicted in 15 forecasting studies identified in a previously published systematic review. Outcomes related to (1) each forecasting study including country, year, intention and forecasting methods used and (2) the predicted technologies including technology type, purpose, targeted clinical area and forecast timeframe. Of the 896 identified health-related technologies, 685 (76.5%) were health technologies with an explicit or implied health application and included in our study. Of these, 19.1% were diagnostic or imaging tests, 14.3% devices or biomaterials, 12.6% information technology systems, eHealth or mHealth and 12% drugs. The majority of the technologies were intended to treat or manage disease (38.1%) or diagnose or monitor disease (26.1%). The most frequent targeted clinical areas were infectious diseases followed by cancer, circulatory and nervous system disorders. The most frequent technology types were for: infectious diseases-prophylactic vaccines (45.8%), cancer-drugs (40%), circulatory disease-devices and biomaterials (26.3%), and diseases of the nervous system-equally devices and biomaterials (25%) and regenerative medicine (25%). The mean timeframe for forecasting was 11.6 years (range 0-33 years, median=10, SD=6.6). The forecasting timeframe significantly differed by technology type (p=0.002), the intent of the forecasting group (p<0.001) and the methods used (p<001). While description and classification of predicted health-related technologies is crucial in preparing healthcare systems for adopting new innovations

  20. Photovoltaic technology assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, C.E.

    1981-01-01

    After a brief review of the history of photovoltaic devices and a discussion of the cost goals set for photovoltaic modules, the status of photovoltaic technology is assessed. Included are discussions of: current applications, present industrial production, low-cost silicon production techniques, energy payback periods for solar cells, advanced materials research and development, concentrator systems, balance-of-system components. Also discussed are some nontechnical aspects, including foreign markets, US government program approach, and industry attitudes and approaches. (LEW)

  1. Assessment and added value estimation of an ensemble approach with a focus on global radiation forecasts

    CERN Document Server

    Bouallegue, Zied Ben

    2015-01-01

    The assessment of the high-resolution ensemble weather prediction system COSMO-DE-EPS is achieved with the perspective of using it for renewable energy applications. The performance of the ensemble forecast is explored focusing on global radiation, the main weather variable affecting solar power production, and on quantile forecasts, key probabilistic products for the energy sector. First, the ability of the ensemble system to capture and resolve the observation variability is assessed. Secondly, the potential benefit of the ensemble forecasting strategy compared to a single forecast approach is quantitatively estimated. A new metric called ensemble added value is proposed, aiming at a fair comparison of an ensemble forecast with a single forecast, when optimized to the users' needs. Hourly mean forecasts are verified against pyranometer measurements over verification periods covering 2013. The results show in particular that the added value of the ensemble approach is season-dependent and increases with the ...

  2. Research on Forecast Technology of Mine Gas Emission Based on Fuzzy Data Mining(FDM)

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Chang-kai; WANG Yao-cai; WANG Jun-wei

    2004-01-01

    The safe production of coalmine can be further improved by forecasting the quantity of gas emission based on the real-time data and historical data which the gas monitoring system has saved. By making use of the advantages of data warehouse and data mining technology for processing large quantity of redundancy data, the method and its application of forecasting mine gas emission quantity based on FDM were studied. The constructing fuzzy resembling relation and clustering analysis were proposed, which the potential relationship inside the gas emission data may be found. The mode finds model and forecast model were presented, and the detailed approach to realize this forecast was also proposed, which have been applied to forecast the gas emission quantity efficiently.

  3. A quality assessment of the MARS crop yield forecasting system for the European Union

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Velde, Marijn; Bareuth, Bettina

    2015-04-01

    Timely information on crop production forecasts can become of increasing importance as commodity markets are more and more interconnected. Impacts across large crop production areas due to (e.g.) extreme weather and pest outbreaks can create ripple effects that may affect food prices and availability elsewhere. The MARS Unit (Monitoring Agricultural ResourceS), DG Joint Research Centre, European Commission, has been providing forecasts of European crop production levels since 1993. The operational crop production forecasting is carried out with the MARS Crop Yield Forecasting System (M-CYFS). The M-CYFS is used to monitor crop growth development, evaluate short-term effects of anomalous meteorological events, and provide monthly forecasts of crop yield at national and European Union level. The crop production forecasts are published in the so-called MARS bulletins. Forecasting crop yield over large areas in the operational context requires quality benchmarks. Here we present an analysis of the accuracy and skill of past crop yield forecasts of the main crops (e.g. soft wheat, grain maize), throughout the growing season, and specifically for the final forecast before harvest. Two simple benchmarks to assess the skill of the forecasts were defined as comparing the forecasts to 1) a forecast equal to the average yield and 2) a forecast using a linear trend established through the crop yield time-series. These reveal a variability in performance as a function of crop and Member State. In terms of production, the yield forecasts of 67% of the EU-28 soft wheat production and 80% of the EU-28 maize production have been forecast superior to both benchmarks during the 1993-2013 period. In a changing and increasingly variable climate crop yield forecasts can become increasingly valuable - provided they are used wisely. We end our presentation by discussing research activities that could contribute to this goal.

  4. New Technology Trends in Education: Seven Years of Forecasts and Convergence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Sergio; Diaz, Gabriel; Sancristobal, Elio; Gil, Rosario; Castro, Manuel; Peire, Juan

    2011-01-01

    Each year since 2004, a new Horizon Report has been released. Each edition attempts to forecast the most promising technologies likely to impact on education along three horizons: the short term (the year of the report), the mid-term (the next 2 years) and the long term (the next 4 years). This paper analyzes the evolution of technology trends…

  5. PATTERNS OF SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT AND THEIR USE IN FORECASTING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. I. Komkov

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In article laws of scientifically-technological development are considered. Their number concern traditional, base and new, formed. Possibilities and ways of the account of the listed laws are shown at forecasting of prospects of scientifically-technological development.

  6. Forecasting the innovation and technology based economic development as a component of the choice of anti-crisis strategy

    OpenAIRE

    L. Fedulova

    2009-01-01

    The author reveals the role of the technology factor in crisis situations and justifies the significance of the mechanisms of technological forecasting in the choice of strategic guidelines of a country's development. She proposes a conceptual model of the system of scientifico-technological forecasting and shows its place in the innovation based renewal of economic activities.

  7. Forecasting the innovation and technology based economic development as a component of the choice of anti-crisis strategy

    OpenAIRE

    L. Fedulova

    2009-01-01

    The author reveals the role of the technology factor in crisis situations and justifies the significance of the mechanisms of technological forecasting in the choice of strategic guidelines of a country's development. She proposes a conceptual model of the system of scientifico-technological forecasting and shows its place in the innovation based renewal of economic activities.

  8. Image Science Technology Forecasting on offset printing:A Patent Analysis Approach

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Liu Yaojen

    2004-01-01

    Technology forecasting is a important approach which can help researcher to point out what will be of technology in the future. There are many well-developed approaches and methodologies can do technology forecasting well, for example S-curve analysis. Patent analysis is another way to analyze technology development trend. Patent is a kind of intellectual property right can help researcher avoid to infringe patent owned by competitor. Patent analysis can help researcher and corporate find out what are major technology trends and point out what field has low patent infringement risk.It will describe what patent analysis is briefly and how to process, and use patent analysis to analysis image reproduction technology trend. Offset printing technology is the main field discussed. When running analysis will follow the international patent classification (IPC) category and use USPTO patent database.

  9. Technology assessment heat pumps

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rudolph, R.; Purper, G. (Battelle-Institut e.V., Frankfurt am Main (Germany, F.R.))

    Technology assessment for an increased application of heat pumps is carried out in four areas: Effects in the economics area, i.e. effects on the economic goals which are defined in the Stability Law, on the goals of the power supply policy which result from the energy programme and its projections, and on the economic structure as a whole. The whole range of social problems concerning the use of heat pumps, i.e. the questions which social groups are affected, how they react, and what consequences are they expected to have on energy conservation as an object of social policy. Consequences in the governmental and administrative sectors, i.e. effects on legislation, administration and government budgets. Effects on the ecological systems; of prime interest in this context are the utilisation of environmental energy, changes in the heat balance, and emmission of pollutants.

  10. Impact Assessment of Uncertainty Propagation of Ensemble NWP Rainfall to Flood Forecasting with Catchment Scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wansik Yu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The common approach to quantifying the precipitation forecast uncertainty is ensemble simulations where a numerical weather prediction (NWP model is run for a number of cases with slightly different initial conditions. In practice, the spread of ensemble members in terms of flood discharge is used as a measure of forecast uncertainty due to uncertain precipitation forecasts. This study presents the uncertainty propagation of rainfall forecast into hydrological response with catchment scale through distributed rainfall-runoff modeling based on the forecasted ensemble rainfall of NWP model. At first, forecast rainfall error based on the BIAS is compared with flood forecast error to assess the error propagation. Second, the variability of flood forecast uncertainty according to catchment scale is discussed using ensemble spread. Then we also assess the flood forecast uncertainty with catchment scale using an estimation regression equation between ensemble rainfall BIAS and discharge BIAS. Finally, the flood forecast uncertainty with RMSE using specific discharge in catchment scale is discussed. Our study is carried out and verified using the largest flood event by typhoon “Talas” of 2011 over the 33 subcatchments of Shingu river basin (2,360 km2, which is located in the Kii Peninsula, Japan.

  11. First Assessment of Itaipu Dam Ensemble Inflow Forecasting System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mainardi Fan, Fernando; Machado Vieira Lisboa, Auder; Gomes Villa Trinidad, Giovanni; Rógenes Monteiro Pontes, Paulo; Collischonn, Walter; Tucci, Carlos; Costa Buarque, Diogo

    2017-04-01

    Inflow forecasting for Hydropower Plants (HPP) Dams is one of the prominent uses for hydrological forecasts. A very important HPP in terms of energy generation for South America is the Itaipu Dam, located in the Paraná River, between Brazil and Paraguay countries, with a drainage area of 820.000km2. In this work, we present the development of an ensemble forecasting system for Itaipu, operational since November 2015. The system is based in the MGB-IPH hydrological model, includes hydrodynamics simulations of the main river, and is run every day morning forced by seven different rainfall forecasts: (i) CPTEC-ETA 15km; (ii) CPTEC-BRAMS 5km; (iii) SIMEPAR WRF Ferrier; (iv) SIMEPAR WRF Lin; (v) SIMEPAR WRF Morrison; (vi) SIMEPAR WRF WDM6; (vii) SIMEPAR MEDIAN. The last one (vii) corresponds to the median value of SIMEPAR WRF model versions (iii to vi) rainfall forecasts. Besides the developed system, the "traditional" method for inflow forecasting generation for the Itaipu Dam is also run every day. This traditional method consists in the approximation of the future inflow based on the discharge tendency of upstream telemetric gauges. Nowadays, after all the forecasts are run, the hydrology team of Itaipu develop a consensus forecast, based on all obtained results, which is the one used for the Itaipu HPP Dam operation. After one year of operation a first evaluation of the Ensemble Forecasting System was conducted. Results show that the system performs satisfactory for rising flows up to five days lead time. However, some false alarms were also issued by most ensemble members in some cases. And not in all cases the system performed better than the traditional method, especially during hydrograph recessions. In terms of meteorological forecasts, some members usage are being discontinued. In terms of the hydrodynamics representation, it seems that a better information of rivers cross section could improve hydrographs recession curves forecasts. Those opportunities for

  12. Multidisciplinary studies of the social, economic and political impact resulting from recent advances in satellite meteorology. Volume 6: Executive summary. [technological forecasting spacecraft control/attitude (inclination) -classical mechanics

    Science.gov (United States)

    1975-01-01

    An assessment of the technological impact of modern satellite weather forecasting for the United States is presented. Topics discussed are: (1) television broadcasting of weather; (2) agriculture (crop production); (3) water resources; (4) urban development; (5) recreation; and (6) transportation.

  13. Technology Assessment: 1983 Forecast of Future Test Technology Requirements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-06-01

    Resonances Singularity Expansion Method (SEM) Optical Image Pockel’s Readout Optical Modulator IR Detector Heliostat Interferometer Mechanical Stress...outside of the R&D lab environment. TITLE: CONTROL AND STABILIZATION ( PRECISION WEAPON POINTING) RDT&E CATEGORY 6.2 OBJECTIVE: Develop advanced design...concepts based on modern control and estimation theory for precision weapon/sight control and stabilization in a dynamic fire-on-the-move environment

  14. Technology Performance Level Assessment Methodology.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roberts, Jesse D.; Bull, Diana L; Malins, Robert Joseph; Costello, Ronan Patrick; Aurelien Babarit; Kim Nielsen; Claudio Bittencourt Ferreira; Ben Kennedy; Kathryn Dykes; Jochem Weber

    2017-04-01

    The technology performance level (TPL) assessments can be applied at all technology development stages and associated technology readiness levels (TRLs). Even, and particularly, at low TRLs the TPL assessment is very effective as it, holistically, considers a wide range of WEC attributes that determine the techno-economic performance potential of the WEC farm when fully developed for commercial operation. The TPL assessment also highlights potential showstoppers at the earliest possible stage of the WEC technology development. Hence, the TPL assessment identifies the technology independent “performance requirements.” In order to achieve a successful solution, the entirety of the performance requirements within the TPL must be considered because, in the end, all the stakeholder needs must be achieved. The basis for performing a TPL assessment comes from the information provided in a dedicated format, the Technical Submission Form (TSF). The TSF requests information from the WEC developer that is required to answer the questions posed in the TPL assessment document.

  15. INVESTIGATION OF AN APPROPRIATE TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING PROCESS FOR SASOL FOR THE NEW ENERGY ERA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Ma

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Sasol is predominantly an energy-based company. The energy industry is undergoing a fundamental transformation that may have a profound impact on Sasol’s overall business. This study has been carried out to investigate the need to establish an appropriate technology forecasting process for the new energy era. Although there exist some evidence of technology forecasting within Sasol, they are scattered and unsophisticated. Technology forecasting as a tool enables managers to make better decisions and encourages networking and knowledge sharing within the organization, an important trait of a ‘Learning Organization’. A theoretical framework of technology forecasting for Sasol is thereby formulated.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Sasol is hoofsaaklik 'n energie-gebaseerde maatskappy. Die energie-industrie ondergaan tans 'n diepgaande transformasie wat 'n wesenlike impak kan hê op Sasol se totale besigheid. Hierdie studie is uitgevoer om die behoefte vir 'n toepaslike tegnologie-vooruitskattingsproses vir die nuwe energie-era te bepaal. Alhoewel daar bewyse bestaan vir tegnologie-vooruitskatting binne Sasol, is dit verspreid en ongesofistikeerd. Tegnologie-vooruitskatting is 'n gereedskapstuk wat bestuurders in staat stel om beter besluite te neem en bevorder die gebruik van netwerke en kennis-uitruiling binne die organisasie, 'n belangrike eienskap van 'n 'Lerende Organisasie'. 'n Teoretiese raamwerk vir tegnologie-vooruitskatting vir Sasol word sodoende geformuleer.

  16. Forecast of technological development in ore mining branches on basis of modernization of technique and technology of mining practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandr Ivanovich Tatarkin

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Pro forma data for exploration of mineral raw material base of some territories Ural regions are given. Perspective trajectories of development of mineral raw complex of federal subjects Russia’s are characterized. On this basis are highlighted groups of region — saving, reducing, raising the level of raw specialization or diversifying own economy. Peculiarities of forecasting technological development in ore mining branches in the period of planned economy of the USSR are illustrated. Indexes of successfully working iron-ore open casts are given. Theraise of internal Russian demand on raw is grounded, for which satisfaction are needed:corresponding tax policy for innovative production, corporate innovative policy, creating fund of supporting ore mining, commercialization of scientific products and working out rules in the sphere of scientific and technical progress. Peculiarities of technological development of ore mining branches of industry are emphasized: necessity of modernization of enterprises and exploration of deposits in regions with not enough developed infrastructure and opportunity of using new system approach by forecasting. Thestages ofeffectiveexploration of deposits and the parameters of developing ore mining enterprises arefound out. Components of forecast of technological development are analyzed. World tendencies of developing ore mining industry and basic directions of forecast of developing ore mining branches are given. New effective technologies being used in the ore mining are analyzed in detail.

  17. Aerosols for Concentrating Solar Electricity Production Forecasts: Requirement Quantification and ECMWF/MACC Aerosol Forecast Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Schroedter-Homscheidt, Marion; Oumbe, Armel; Benedetti, Angela; Morcrette, Jean-Jacques

    2013-01-01

    The potential for transferring a larger share of our energy supply toward renewable energy is a widely discussed goal in society, economics, environment, and climate-related programs. For a larger share of electricity to come from fluctuating solar and wind energy-based electricity, production forecasts are required to ensure successful grid integration. Concentrating solar power holds the potential to make the fluctuating solar electricity a dispatchable resource by using both heat storage s...

  18. Melter Technologies Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perez, J.M. Jr. [Pacific Northwest National Lab., Richland, WA (United States); Schumacher, R.F. [Savannah River Technology Center, Aiken, SC (United States); Forsberg, C.W. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)

    1996-05-01

    The problem of controlling and disposing of surplus fissile material, in particular plutonium, is being addressed by the US Department of Energy (DOE). Immobilization of plutonium by vitrification has been identified as a promising solution. The Melter Evaluation Activity of DOE`s Plutonium Immobilization Task is responsible for evaluating and selecting the preferred melter technologies for vitrification for each of three immobilization options: Greenfield Facility, Adjunct Melter Facility, and Can-In-Canister. A significant number of melter technologies are available for evaluation as a result of vitrification research and development throughout the international communities for over 20 years. This paper describes an evaluation process which will establish the specific requirements of performance against which candidate melter technologies can be carefully evaluated. Melter technologies that have been identified are also described.

  19. Turbine imaging technology assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moursund, R. A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Carlson, T. J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2004-12-01

    The goal of this project was to identify and evaluate imaging technologies for observing juvenile fish within a Kaplan turbine, and specifically that would enable scientists to determine mechanisms of fish injury within an operating turbine unit. This report documents the opportunities and constraints for observing juvenile fish at specific locations during turbine passage. These observations were used to make modifications to dam structures and operations to improve conditions for fish passage while maintaining or improving hydropower production. The physical and hydraulic environment that fish experience as they pass through the hydroelectric plants were studied and the regions with the greatest potential for injury were defined. Biological response data were also studied to determine the probable types of injuries sustained in the turbine intake and what types of injuries are detectable with imaging technologies. The study grouped injury-causing mechanisms into two categories: fluid (pressure/cavitation, shear, turbulence) and mechanical (strike/collision, grinding/pinching, scraping). The physical constraints of the environment, together with the likely types of injuries to fish, provided the parameters needed for a rigorous imaging technology evaluation. Types of technology evaluated included both tracking and imaging systems using acoustic technologies (such as sonar and acoustic tags) and optic technologies (such as pulsed-laser videography, which is high-speed videography using a laser as the flash). Criteria for determining image data quality such as frame rate, target detectability, and resolution were used to quantify the minimum requirements of an imaging sensor.

  20. Wind Resource Assessment and Forecast Planning with Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolus K. Rotich

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we built three types of artificial neural networks, namely: Feed forward networks, Elman networks and Cascade forward networks, for forecasting wind speeds and directions. A similar network topology was used for all the forecast horizons, regardless of the model type. All the models were then trained with real data of collected wind speeds and directions over a period of two years in the municipal of Puumala, Finland. Up to 70th percentile of the data was used for training, validation and testing, while 71–85th percentile was presented to the trained models for validation. The model outputs were then compared to the last 15% of the original data, by measuring the statistical errors between them. The feed forward networks returned the lowest errors for wind speeds. Cascade forward networks gave the lowest errors for wind directions; Elman networks returned the lowest errors when used for short term forecasting.

  1. Assessing methods for developing crop forecasting in the Iberian Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ines, A. V. M.; Capa Morocho, M. I.; Baethgen, W.; Rodriguez-Fonseca, B.; Han, E.; Ruiz Ramos, M.

    2015-12-01

    Seasonal climate prediction may allow predicting crop yield to reduce the vulnerability of agricultural production to climate variability and its extremes. It has been already demonstrated that seasonal climate predictions at European (or Iberian) scale from ensembles of global coupled climate models have some skill (Palmer et al., 2004). The limited predictability that exhibits the atmosphere in mid-latitudes, and therefore de Iberian Peninsula (PI), can be managed by a probabilistic approach based in terciles. This study presents an application for the IP of two methods for linking tercile-based seasonal climate forecasts with crop models to improve crop predictability. Two methods were evaluated and applied for disaggregating seasonal rainfall forecasts into daily weather realizations: 1) a stochastic weather generator and 2) a forecast tercile resampler. Both methods were evaluated in a case study where the impacts of two seasonal rainfall forecasts (wet and dry forecast for 1998 and 2015 respectively) on rainfed wheat yield and irrigation requirements of maize in IP were analyzed. Simulated wheat yield and irrigation requirements of maize were computed with the crop models CERES-wheat and CERES-maize which are included in Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT v.4.5, Hoogenboom et al., 2010). Simulations were run at several locations in Spain where the crop model was calibrated and validated with independent field data. These methodologies would allow quantifying the benefits and risks of a seasonal climate forecast to potential users as farmers, agroindustry and insurance companies in the IP. Therefore, we would be able to establish early warning systems and to design crop management adaptation strategies that take advantage of favorable conditions or reduce the effect of adverse ones. ReferencesPalmer, T. et al., 2004. Development of a European multimodel ensemble system for seasonal-to-interannual prediction (DEMETER). Bulletin of the

  2. Superconducting Technology Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-08-01

    of Nb/Al- Nx /NbTiN junctions for SIS mixer applications,” IEEE Trans. Appl. Superconduct., vol. 11, pp. 76–79, Mar. 2001. [48] M. Gurvitch, W. A...Another connector developed by IBM for commercial applications using a dendritic interposer technology. A “beam-on-pad” approach developed by Siemens

  3. Forecasting the Development of Different Solar Cell Technologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arturo Morales-Acevedo

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Solar cells are made of several materials and device structures with the main goal of having maximum efficiency at low cost. Some types of solar cells have shown a rapid efficiency progress whereas others seem to remain constant as a consequence of different factors such as the technological and economic ones. Using information published by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL about the increase of solar cells record efficiency, we apply a simple mathematical model to estimate the evolution in the near future for the different cell technologies. Here, as an example, we use data for solar cells made with representative materials and structures of each of the three “PV generations.”

  4. Improving the Army’s Next Effort in Technology Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-01

    Cortisol Effects on Body Mass, Blood Pressure, and Cholesterol in the General Population,” Hypertension, 33 (1999), 1364–1368. 13 V. Technological...of HPA (hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal) axis stress response hormones, notably cortisol and b-endorphin.62 These authors suggest that high hardy...stressors. In short, hardy individuals are more likely to remain emotionally stable during stressful situations. In support of this interpretation is

  5. Survey of Long-Term Technology Forecasting Methodologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-11-01

    betting scores at horse races (Ref. 11). The RAND research was directed at improving the use of expert predictions in policy - making. Procedures were... policy formulation, but we have no way of knowing whether it did. Much of the thinking was heavily oriented toward then-current problems, such as the...asked to put themselves into a future time frame in which some technology is assumed to be commonplace. Then, the group is asked to “ backcast ” to

  6. Forecasting the Development of Different Solar Cell Technologies

    OpenAIRE

    Arturo Morales-Acevedo; Gaspar Casados-Cruz

    2013-01-01

    Solar cells are made of several materials and device structures with the main goal of having maximum efficiency at low cost. Some types of solar cells have shown a rapid efficiency progress whereas others seem to remain constant as a consequence of different factors such as the technological and economic ones. Using information published by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) about the increase of solar cells record efficiency, we apply a simple mathematical model to estimate the ...

  7. Health technology assessment in Finland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mäkelä, Marjukka; Roine, Risto P

    2010-01-01

    Since the 1990s, health policy makers in Finland have been supportive of evidence-based medicine and approaches to implement its results. The Finnish Office for Health Technology Assessment (Finohta) has grown from a small start in 1995 to a medium-sized health technology assessment (HTA) agency......, with special responsibility in providing assessments to underpin national policies in screening. External evaluations enhanced the rapid growth. In the Finnish environment, decision making on health technologies is extremely decentralized, so Finohta has developed some practical tools for implementing HTA...... findings. The Managed Uptake of Medical Methods program links the hospital districts to agree on introduction of technologies. The Ohtanen database provides Finnish-language summaries of major assessments made in other countries....

  8. Climate model forecast biases assessed with a perturbed physics ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulholland, David P.; Haines, Keith; Sparrow, Sarah N.; Wallom, David

    2017-09-01

    Perturbed physics ensembles have often been used to analyse long-timescale climate model behaviour, but have been used less often to study model processes on shorter timescales. We combine a transient perturbed physics ensemble with a set of initialised forecasts to deduce regional process errors present in the standard HadCM3 model, which cause the model to drift in the early stages of the forecast. First, it is shown that the transient drifts in the perturbed physics ensembles can be used to recover quantitatively the parameters that were perturbed. The parameters which exert most influence on the drifts vary regionally, but upper ocean mixing and atmospheric convective processes are particularly important on the 1-month timescale. Drifts in the initialised forecasts are then used to recover the `equivalent parameter perturbations', which allow identification of the physical processes that may be at fault in the HadCM3 representation of the real world. Most parameters show positive and negative adjustments in different regions, indicating that standard HadCM3 values represent a global compromise. The method is verified by correcting an unusually widespread positive bias in the strength of wind-driven ocean mixing, with forecast drifts reduced in a large number of areas as a result. This method could therefore be used to improve the skill of initialised climate model forecasts by reducing model biases through regional adjustments to physical processes, either by tuning or targeted parametrisation refinement. Further, such regionally tuned models might also significantly outperform standard climate models, with global parameter configurations, in longer-term climate studies.

  9. Climate model forecast biases assessed with a perturbed physics ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulholland, David P.; Haines, Keith; Sparrow, Sarah N.; Wallom, David

    2016-10-01

    Perturbed physics ensembles have often been used to analyse long-timescale climate model behaviour, but have been used less often to study model processes on shorter timescales. We combine a transient perturbed physics ensemble with a set of initialised forecasts to deduce regional process errors present in the standard HadCM3 model, which cause the model to drift in the early stages of the forecast. First, it is shown that the transient drifts in the perturbed physics ensembles can be used to recover quantitatively the parameters that were perturbed. The parameters which exert most influence on the drifts vary regionally, but upper ocean mixing and atmospheric convective processes are particularly important on the 1-month timescale. Drifts in the initialised forecasts are then used to recover the `equivalent parameter perturbations', which allow identification of the physical processes that may be at fault in the HadCM3 representation of the real world. Most parameters show positive and negative adjustments in different regions, indicating that standard HadCM3 values represent a global compromise. The method is verified by correcting an unusually widespread positive bias in the strength of wind-driven ocean mixing, with forecast drifts reduced in a large number of areas as a result. This method could therefore be used to improve the skill of initialised climate model forecasts by reducing model biases through regional adjustments to physical processes, either by tuning or targeted parametrisation refinement. Further, such regionally tuned models might also significantly outperform standard climate models, with global parameter configurations, in longer-term climate studies.

  10. Illustrating anticipatory life cycle assessment for emerging photovoltaic technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wender, Ben A; Foley, Rider W; Prado-Lopez, Valentina; Ravikumar, Dwarakanath; Eisenberg, Daniel A; Hottle, Troy A; Sadowski, Jathan; Flanagan, William P; Fisher, Angela; Laurin, Lise; Bates, Matthew E; Linkov, Igor; Seager, Thomas P; Fraser, Matthew P; Guston, David H

    2014-09-16

    Current research policy and strategy documents recommend applying life cycle assessment (LCA) early in research and development (R&D) to guide emerging technologies toward decreased environmental burden. However, existing LCA practices are ill-suited to support these recommendations. Barriers related to data availability, rapid technology change, and isolation of environmental from technical research inhibit application of LCA to developing technologies. Overcoming these challenges requires methodological advances that help identify environmental opportunities prior to large R&D investments. Such an anticipatory approach to LCA requires synthesis of social, environmental, and technical knowledge beyond the capabilities of current practices. This paper introduces a novel framework for anticipatory LCA that incorporates technology forecasting, risk research, social engagement, and comparative impact assessment, then applies this framework to photovoltaic (PV) technologies. These examples illustrate the potential for anticipatory LCA to prioritize research questions and help guide environmentally responsible innovation of emerging technologies.

  11. Transition, Training, and Assessment of Multispectral Composite Imagery in Support of the NWS Aviation Forecast Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuell, Kevin; Jedlovec, Gary; Leroy, Anita; Schultz, Lori

    2015-01-01

    The NASA/Short-term Prediction, Research, and Transition (SPoRT) Program works closely with NOAA/NWS weather forecasters to transition unique satellite data and capabilities into operations in order to assist with nowcasting and short-term forecasting issues. Several multispectral composite imagery (i.e. RGB) products were introduced to users in the early 2000s to support hydrometeorology and aviation challenges as well as incident support. These activities lead to SPoRT collaboration with the GOES-R Proving Ground efforts where instruments such as MODIS (Aqua, Terra) and S-NPP/VIIRS imagers began to be used as near-realtime proxies to future capabilities of the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI). One of the composite imagery products introduced to users was the Night-time Microphysics RGB, originally developed by EUMETSAT. SPoRT worked to transition this imagery to NWS users, provide region-specific training, and assess the impact of the imagery to aviation forecast needs. This presentation discusses the method used to interact with users to address specific aviation forecast challenges, including training activities undertaken to prepare for a product assessment. Users who assessed the multispectral imagery ranged from southern U.S. inland and coastal NWS weather forecast offices (WFOs), to those in the Rocky Mountain Front Range region and West Coast, as well as highlatitude forecasters of Alaska. These user-based assessments were documented and shared with the satellite community to support product developers and the broad users of new generation satellite data.

  12. Transition from Research to Operations: Assessing Value of Experimental Forecast Products within the NWSFO Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lapenta, William M.; Wohlman, Richard; Bradshaw, Tom; Burks, Jason; Jedlovec, Gary; Goodman, Steve; Darden, Chris; Meyer, Paul

    2003-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center seeks to accelerate the infusion of NASA Earth Science Enterprise (ESE) observations, data assimilation and modeling research into NWS forecast operations and decision-making. To meet long-term program expectations, it is not sufficient simply to give forecasters sophisticated workstations or new forecast products without fully assessing the ways in which they will be utilized. Close communication must be established between the research and operational communities so that developers have a complete understanding of user needs. In turn, forecasters must obtain a more comprehensive knowledge of the modeling and sensing tools available to them. A major goal of the SPoRT Program is to develop metrics and conduct assessment studies with NWS forecasters to evaluate the impacts and benefits of ESE experimental products on forecast skill. At a glance the task seems relatively straightforward. However, performing assessment of experimental products in an operational environment is demanding. Given the tremendous time constraints placed on NWS forecasters, it is imperative that forecaster input be obtained in a concise unobtrusive manor. Great care must also be taken to ensure that forecasters understand their participation will eventually benefit them and WFO operations in general. Two requirements of the assessment plan developed under the SPoRT activity are that it 1) Can be implemented within the WFO environment; and 2) Provide tangible results for BOTH the research and operational communities. Supplemental numerical quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) were chosen as the first experimental SPoRT product to be evaluated during a Pilot Assessment Program conducted 1 May 2003 within the Huntsville AL National Weather Service Forecast Office. Forecast time periods were broken up into six- hour bins ranging from zero to twenty-four hours. Data were made available for display in AWIPS on an

  13. Transition from Research to Operations: Assessing Value of Experimental Forecast Products within the NWSFO Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lapenta, William M.; Wohlman, Richard; Bradshaw, Tom; Burks, Jason; Jedlovec, Gary; Goodman, Steve; Darden, Chris; Meyer, Paul

    2003-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center seeks to accelerate the infusion of NASA Earth Science Enterprise (ESE) observations, data assimilation and modeling research into NWS forecast operations and decision-making. To meet long-term program expectations, it is not sufficient simply to give forecasters sophisticated workstations or new forecast products without fully assessing the ways in which they will be utilized. Close communication must be established between the research and operational communities so that developers have a complete understanding of user needs. In turn, forecasters must obtain a more comprehensive knowledge of the modeling and sensing tools available to them. A major goal of the SPoRT Program is to develop metrics and conduct assessment studies with NWS forecasters to evaluate the impacts and benefits of ESE experimental products on forecast skill. At a glance the task seems relatively straightforward. However, performing assessment of experimental products in an operational environment is demanding. Given the tremendous time constraints placed on NWS forecasters, it is imperative that forecaster input be obtained in a concise unobtrusive manor. Great care must also be taken to ensure that forecasters understand their participation will eventually benefit them and WFO operations in general. Two requirements of the assessment plan developed under the SPoRT activity are that it 1) Can be implemented within the WFO environment; and 2) Provide tangible results for BOTH the research and operational communities. Supplemental numerical quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) were chosen as the first experimental SPoRT product to be evaluated during a Pilot Assessment Program conducted 1 May 2003 within the Huntsville AL National Weather Service Forecast Office. Forecast time periods were broken up into six- hour bins ranging from zero to twenty-four hours. Data were made available for display in AWIPS on an

  14. Assessing Advanced Technology in CENATE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tallent, Nathan R.; Barker, Kevin J.; Gioiosa, Roberto; Marquez, Andres; Kestor, Gokcen; Song, Shuaiwen; Tumeo, Antonino; Kerbyson, Darren J.; Hoisie, Adolfy

    2016-08-08

    PNNL's Center for Advanced Technology Evaluation (CENATE) is a new U.S. Department of Energy center whose mission is to assess and facilitate access to emerging computing technology. CENATE is assessing a range of advanced technologies, from evolutionary to disruptive. Technologies of interest include the processor socket (homogeneous and accelerated systems), memories (dynamic, static, memory cubes), motherboards, networks (network interface cards and switches), and input/output and storage devices. CENATE is developing a multi-perspective evaluation process based on integrating advanced system instrumentation, performance measurements, and modeling and simulation. We show evaluations of two emerging network technologies: silicon photonics interconnects and the Data Vortex network. CENATE's evaluation also addresses the question of which machine is best for a given workload under certain constraints. We show a performance-power tradeoff analysis of a well-known machine learning application on two systems.

  15. Quality assessment and forecast sensitivity of global remote sensing observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mallick, Swapan; Dutta, Devajyoti; Min, Ki-Hong

    2017-03-01

    The satellite-derived wind from cloud and moisture features of geostationary satellites is an important data source for numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. These datasets and global positioning system radio occultation (GPSRO) satellite radiances are assimilated in the four-dimensional variational atmospheric data assimilation system of the UKMO Unified Model in India. This study focuses on the importance of these data in the NWP system and their impact on short-term 24-h forecasts. The quality of the wind observations is compared to the short-range forecast from the model background. The observation increments (observation minus background) are computed as the satellite-derived wind minus the model forecast with a 6-h lead time. The results show the model background has a large easterly wind component compared to satellite observations. The importance of each observation in the analysis is studied using an adjoint-based forecast sensitivity to observation method. The results show that at least around 50% of all types of satellite observations are beneficial. In terms of individual contribution, METEOSAT-7 shows a higher percentage of impact (nearly 50%), as compared to GEOS, MTSAT-2 and METEOSAT-10, all of which have a less than 25% impact. In addition, the impact of GPSRO, infrared atmospheric sounding interferometer (IASI) and atmospheric infrared sounder (AIRS) data is calculated. The GPSRO observations have beneficial impacts up to 50 km. Over the Southern Hemisphere, the high spectral radiances from IASI and AIRS show a greater impact than over the Northern Hemisphere. The results in this study can be used for further improvements in the use of new and existing satellite observations.

  16. Analysis of Technology and Hydrological Regime Changes Induced Errors of Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balint, G.; Rozsa, K.; Bartha, P.

    Real time hydrological forecasting results inevitable contain some errors. The source of the difference between calculated and observed values can be most diverse. In- put data of forecasting models are themselves not the true estimates of the ongoing processes U it can be followed by comparing operationally computed water levels with those checked and corrected on annual basis as they appear in hydrological year- books. Modelling errors are the most common ones and systematic or regular parts of those are often compensated by appropriate updating procedures. ARMA techniques are frequently used, but in most cases for major part of this error component can be compensated by n-step autoregressive procedure where n is a sufficiently low number. Basic statements are illustrated by the history of short term water level forecasting on the Hungarian section of the Danube. No strict calculation algorithm or defined tech- nique was used in the 1950s the forecast was the product of subjective judgement by an (usually) experienced forecaster. A simple linear regression expression was used in the 60s, early 70s often combined with results of an empirical flood routing tech- nique and/or during floods with results of graphical correlation technique used for flood crest forecasting. Most of the 70s and till mid-1980s the empirical flood routing technique developed by Szesztay remained in use, combined with flood crests fore- casting. The age of micro-computes changed the approaches in use. A flood routing model based on DLCM later combined with rainfall-runoff models (GAPI) took over as tool for daily forecasting. The graphical flood crests forecasting was replaced by a multivariate linear or polynomial regression technique. The change of techniques and more advanced technology was not followed by clear improvement represented by decreasing errors. This is mostly due to changes in hydrological regime for low flow periods often having the impact of the peak regime of hydro power

  17. Moving beyond the cost-loss ratio: economic assessment of streamflow forecasts for a risk-averse decision maker

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matte, Simon; Boucher, Marie-Amélie; Boucher, Vincent; Fortier Filion, Thomas-Charles

    2017-06-01

    A large effort has been made over the past 10 years to promote the operational use of probabilistic or ensemble streamflow forecasts. Numerous studies have shown that ensemble forecasts are of higher quality than deterministic ones. Many studies also conclude that decisions based on ensemble rather than deterministic forecasts lead to better decisions in the context of flood mitigation. Hence, it is believed that ensemble forecasts possess a greater economic and social value for both decision makers and the general population. However, the vast majority of, if not all, existing hydro-economic studies rely on a cost-loss ratio framework that assumes a risk-neutral decision maker. To overcome this important flaw, this study borrows from economics and evaluates the economic value of early warning flood systems using the well-known Constant Absolute Risk Aversion (CARA) utility function, which explicitly accounts for the level of risk aversion of the decision maker. This new framework allows for the full exploitation of the information related to a forecasts' uncertainty, making it especially suited for the economic assessment of ensemble or probabilistic forecasts. Rather than comparing deterministic and ensemble forecasts, this study focuses on comparing different types of ensemble forecasts. There are multiple ways of assessing and representing forecast uncertainty. Consequently, there exist many different means of building an ensemble forecasting system for future streamflow. One such possibility is to dress deterministic forecasts using the statistics of past error forecasts. Such dressing methods are popular among operational agencies because of their simplicity and intuitiveness. Another approach is the use of ensemble meteorological forecasts for precipitation and temperature, which are then provided as inputs to one or many hydrological model(s). In this study, three concurrent ensemble streamflow forecasting systems are compared: simple statistically dressed

  18. Moving beyond the cost–loss ratio: economic assessment of streamflow forecasts for a risk-averse decision maker

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Matte

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available A large effort has been made over the past 10 years to promote the operational use of probabilistic or ensemble streamflow forecasts. Numerous studies have shown that ensemble forecasts are of higher quality than deterministic ones. Many studies also conclude that decisions based on ensemble rather than deterministic forecasts lead to better decisions in the context of flood mitigation. Hence, it is believed that ensemble forecasts possess a greater economic and social value for both decision makers and the general population. However, the vast majority of, if not all, existing hydro-economic studies rely on a cost–loss ratio framework that assumes a risk-neutral decision maker. To overcome this important flaw, this study borrows from economics and evaluates the economic value of early warning flood systems using the well-known Constant Absolute Risk Aversion (CARA utility function, which explicitly accounts for the level of risk aversion of the decision maker. This new framework allows for the full exploitation of the information related to a forecasts' uncertainty, making it especially suited for the economic assessment of ensemble or probabilistic forecasts. Rather than comparing deterministic and ensemble forecasts, this study focuses on comparing different types of ensemble forecasts. There are multiple ways of assessing and representing forecast uncertainty. Consequently, there exist many different means of building an ensemble forecasting system for future streamflow. One such possibility is to dress deterministic forecasts using the statistics of past error forecasts. Such dressing methods are popular among operational agencies because of their simplicity and intuitiveness. Another approach is the use of ensemble meteorological forecasts for precipitation and temperature, which are then provided as inputs to one or many hydrological model(s. In this study, three concurrent ensemble streamflow forecasting systems are compared: simple

  19. Economic assessment of flood forecasts for a risk-averse decision-maker

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matte, Simon; Boucher, Marie-Amélie; Boucher, Vincent; Fortier-Filion, Thomas-Charles

    2017-04-01

    A large effort has been made over the past 10 years to promote the operational use of probabilistic or ensemble streamflow forecasts. It has also been suggested in past studies that ensemble forecasts might possess a greater economic value than deterministic forecasts. However, the vast majority of recent hydro-economic literature is based on the cost-loss ratio framework, which might be appealing for its simplicity and intuitiveness. One important drawback of the cost-loss ratio is that it implicitly assumes a risk-neutral decision maker. By definition, a risk-neutral individual is indifferent to forecasts' sharpness: as long as forecasts agree with observations on average, the risk-neutral individual is satisfied. A risk-averse individual, however, is sensitive to the level of precision (sharpness) of forecasts. This person is willing to pay to increase his or her certainty about future events. In fact, this is how insurance companies operate: the probability of seeing one's house burn down is relatively low, so the expected cost related to such event is also low. However, people are willing to buy insurance to avoid the risk, however small, of loosing everything. Similarly, in a context where people's safety and property is at stake, the typical decision maker is more risk-averse than risk-neutral. Consequently, the cost-loss ratio is not the most appropriate tool to assess the economic value of flood forecasts. This presentation describes a more realistic framework for assessing the economic value of such forecasts for flood mitigation purposes. Borrowing from economics, the Constant Absolute Risk Aversion utility function (CARA) is the central tool of this new framework. Utility functions allow explicitly accounting for the level of risk aversion of the decision maker and fully exploiting the information related to ensemble forecasts' uncertainty. Three concurrent ensemble streamflow forecasting systems are compared in terms of quality (comparison with

  20. The european flood alert system EFAS – Part 2: Statistical skill assessment of probabilistic and deterministic operational forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. Bartholmes

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Since 2005 the European Flood Alert System (EFAS has been producing probabilistic hydrological forecasts in pre-operational mode at the Joint Research Centre (JRC of the European Commission. EFAS aims at increasing preparedness for floods in trans-national European river basins by providing medium-range deterministic and probabilistic flood forecasting information, from 3 to 10 days in advance, to national hydro-meteorological services.

    This paper is Part 2 of a study presenting the development and skill assessment of EFAS. In Part 1, the scientific approach adopted in the development of the system has been presented, as well as its basic principles and forecast products. In the present article, two years of existing operational EFAS forecasts are statistically assessed and the skill of EFAS forecasts is analysed with several skill scores. The analysis is based on the comparison of threshold exceedances between proxy-observed and forecasted discharges. Skill is assessed both with and without taking into account the persistence of the forecasted signal during consecutive forecasts.

    Skill assessment approaches are mostly adopted from meteorology and the analysis also compares probabilistic and deterministic aspects of EFAS. Furthermore, the utility of different skill scores is discussed and their strengths and shortcomings illustrated. The analysis shows the benefit of incorporating past forecasts in the probability analysis, for medium-range forecasts, which effectively increases the skill of the forecasts.

  1. Latin America wind market assessment. Forecast 2013-2022

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-10-15

    Wind Power Activities by Country: Developers/Owners, Wind Plant Sizes, Wind Turbines Deployed, Commissioning Dates, Market Share, and Capacity Forecasts Latin American markets are a subject of intense interest from the global wind industry. Wind plant construction across Latin America is modest compared to the more established markets like the United States, Europe, and China, but it is an emerging market that is taking off at a rapid pace. The region has become the hottest alternative growth market for the wind energy industry at a time when growth rates in other markets are flat due to a variety of policy and macroeconomic challenges. Globalization is driving sustainable economic growth in most Latin American countries, resulting in greater energy demand. Wind is increasingly viewed as a valuable and essential answer to increasing electricity generation across most markets in Latin America. Strong wind resources, coupled with today's sophisticated wind turbines, are providing cost-effective generation that is competitive with fossil fuel generation. Most Latin American countries also rely heavily on hydroelectricity, which balances well with variable wind generation. Navigant Research forecasts that if most wind plants under construction with planned commissioning go online as scheduled, annual wind power installations in Latin America will grow from nearly 2.2 GW in 2013 to 4.3 GW by 2022. This Navigant Research report provides a comprehensive view of the wind energy market dynamics at play in Latin America. It offers a country-by-country analysis, outlining the key energy policies and development opportunities and barriers and identifying which companies own operational wind plants and which wind turbine vendors supplied those projects. Market forecasts for wind power installations, capacity, and market share in Latin America, segmented by country and company, extend through 2022. The report also offers an especially close analysis of Brazil and Mexico

  2. Assessing the value of seasonal climate forecast information through an end-to-end forecasting framework: Application to U.S. 2012 drought in central Illinois

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafiee-Jood, Majid; Cai, Ximing; Chen, Ligang; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Kumar, Praveen

    2014-08-01

    This study proposes an end-to-end forecasting framework to incorporate operational seasonal climate forecasts to help farmers improve their decisions prior to the crop growth season, which are vulnerable to unanticipated drought conditions. The framework couples a crop growth model with a decision-making model for rainfed agriculture and translates probabilistic seasonal forecasts into more user-related information that can be used to support farmers' decisions on crop type and some market choices (e.g., contracts with ethanol refinery). The regional Climate-Weather Research and Forecasting model (CWRF) driven by two operational general circulation models (GCMs) is used to provide the seasonal forecasts of weather parameters. To better assess the developed framework, CWRF is also driven by observational reanalysis data, which theoretically can be considered as the best seasonal forecast. The proposed framework is applied to the Salt Creek watershed in Illinois that experienced an extreme drought event during 2012 crop growth season. The results show that the forecasts cannot capture the 2012 drought condition in Salt Creek and therefore the suggested decisions can make farmers worse off if the suggestions are adopted. Alternatively, the optimal decisions based on reanalysis-based CWRF forecasts, which can capture the 2012 drought conditions, make farmers better off by suggesting "no-contract" with ethanol refineries. This study suggests that the conventional metric used for ex ante value assessment is not capable of providing meaningful information in the case of extreme drought. Also, it is observed that institutional interventions (e.g., crop insurance) highly influences farmers' decisions and, thereby, the assessment of forecast value.

  3. The study of the life cycle of technology assessment model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHEN Yu-Zhi; HUANG Xun-jiang

    2001-01-01

    The life cycle of technology is one of the most important indexes to weigh up the risk of the investment to neo-tech. There are so many uncertainties because it is conditioned by a lot of factors, we can not make a rational forecasting by traditional assessment method. So this paper gives a conprehensive consideration to the factors that influence production and makes some modification to production function, and establishes the life cycle of technology assessmet model by the method of fuzzy mathematics. So it quantifies the risk of investment. We can take it as one foundational index for the decision making of the investment.

  4. Problem and Improvement of R-values Applied to Assessment of Earthquake Forecast

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Xiaoqing

    2001-01-01

    The researches on the assessment of earthquake forecast are reviewed, then the R-value assessment is further developed theoretically in the paper. The results include the arithmetic of the R-values of earthquake occurrence under the condition that "anomaly" occurred or no "anomaly" occurred respectively, and the relation between the values. The distribution of Rvalue of a forecast method, corresponding to multi-status anomalies being independent each other, is also developed in the paper. The appropriate methods to estimate the R-values and extrapolate the occurrence probability of future earthquakes are also given in the paper.

  5. Technology Alignment and Portfolio Prioritization (TAPP): Advanced Methods in Strategic Analysis, Technology Forecasting and Long Term Planning for Human Exploration and Operations, Advanced Exploration Systems and Advanced Concepts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funaro, Gregory V.; Alexander, Reginald A.

    2015-01-01

    Prioritization by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), and other multi­-criteria decision-making methods. These methods can be labor-intensive, often contain cognitive or parochial bias, and do not consider the competing prioritization between mission architectures. Strategic Decision-Making (SDM) processes cannot be properly understood unless the context of the technology is understood. This makes assessing technological change particularly challenging due to the relationships "between incumbent technology and the incumbent (innovation) system in relation to the emerging technology and the emerging innovation system." The central idea in technology dynamics is to consider all activities that contribute to the development, diffusion, and use of innovations as system functions. Bergek defines system functions within a TIS to address what is actually happening and has a direct influence on the ultimate performance of the system and technology development. ACO uses similar metrics and is expanding these metrics to account for the structure and context of the technology. At NASA technology and strategy is strongly interrelated. NASA's Strategic Space Technology Investment Plan (SSTIP) prioritizes those technologies essential to the pursuit of NASA's missions and national interests. The SSTIP is strongly coupled with NASA's Technology Roadmaps to provide investment guidance during the next four years, within a twenty-year horizon. This paper discusses the methods ACO is currently developing to better perform technology assessments while taking into consideration Strategic Alignment, Technology Forecasting, and Long Term Planning.

  6. A patent survey case: how could technological forecasting help cosmetic chemists with product innovation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domicio Da Silva Souza, Ivan; Juliana Pinheiro, Bárbara; Passarini Takahashi, Vania

    2012-01-01

    Patents represent a free and open source of data for studying innovation and forecasting technological trends. Thus, we suggest that new discussions about the role of patent information are needed. To illustrate the relevance of this issue, we performed a survey of patents involving skin care products, which were granted by the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) between 2006 and 2010, to identify opportunities for innovation and technological trends. We quantified the use of technologies in 333 patents. We plotted a life cycle of technologies related to natural ingredients. We also determined the cross impact of the technologies identified. We observed technologies related to processes applied to cosmetics (2.2%), functional packaging and applicators (2.9%), excipients and active compounds (21.5%), and cosmetic preparations (73.5%). Further, 21.6% of the patents were related to the use of natural ingredients. Several opportunities for innovation were discussed throughout this paper, for example, the use of peptides as active compounds or intracellular carriers (only 3.9% of the technologies in cosmetic preparations). We also observed technological cross impacts that suggested a trend toward multifunctional cosmetics, among others. Patent surveys may help researchers with product innovation because they allow us to identify available and unexplored technologies and turn them into whole new concepts.

  7. Assessment of seasonal soil moisture forecasts over Southern South America with emphasis on dry and wet events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spennemann, Pablo; Rivera, Juan Antonio; Osman, Marisol; Saulo, Celeste; Penalba, Olga

    2017-04-01

    The importance of forecasting extreme wet and dry conditions from weeks to months in advance relies on the need to prevent considerable socio-economic losses, mainly in regions of large populations and where agriculture is a key value for the economies, like Southern South America (SSA). Therefore, to improve the understanding of the performance and uncertainties of seasonal soil moisture and precipitation forecasts over SSA, this study aims to: 1) perform a general assessment of the Climate Forecast System version-2 (CFSv2) soil moisture and precipitation forecasts; and 2) evaluate the CFSv2 ability to represent an extreme drought event merging observations with forecasted Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Soil Moisture Anomalies (SSMA) based on GLDAS-2.0 simulations. Results show that both SPI and SSMA forecast skill are regionally and seasonally dependent. In general a fast degradation of the forecasts skill is observed as the lead time increases with no significant metrics for forecast lead times longer than 2 months. Based on the assessment of the 2008-2009 extreme drought event it is evident that the CFSv2 forecasts have limitations regarding the identification of drought onset, duration, severity and demise, considering both meteorological (SPI) and agricultural (SSMA) drought conditions. These results have some implications upon the use of seasonal forecasts to assist agricultural practices in SSA, given that forecast skill is still too low to be useful for lead times longer than 2 months.

  8. Augmented Reality Tower Technology Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reisman, Ronald J.; Brown, David M.

    2009-01-01

    Augmented Reality technology may help improve Air Traffic Control Tower efficiency and safety during low-visibility conditions. This paper presents the assessments of five off-duty controllers who shadow-controlled' with an augmented reality prototype in their own facility. Initial studies indicated unanimous agreement that this technology is potentially beneficial, though the prototype used in the study was not adequate for operational use. Some controllers agreed that augmented reality technology improved situational awareness, had potential to benefit clearance, control, and coordination tasks and duties and could be very useful for acquiring aircraft and weather information, particularly aircraft location, heading, and identification. The strongest objections to the prototype used in this study were directed at aircraft registration errors, unacceptable optical transparency, insufficient display performance in sunlight, inadequate representation of the static environment and insufficient symbology.

  9. Integral assessment of floodplains as a basis for spatially-explicit flood loss forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zischg, Andreas Paul; Mosimann, Markus; Weingartner, Rolf

    2016-04-01

    flood scenario, the resulting number of affected residents, houses and therefore the losses are computed. This integral assessment leads to a hydro-economical characterisation of each floodplain. Based on that, a transfer function between discharge forecast and damages can be elaborated. This transfer function describes the relationship between predicted peak discharge, flood volume and the number of exposed houses, residents and the related losses. It also can be used to downscale the regional discharge forecast to a local level loss forecast. In addition, a dynamic map delimiting the probable flooded areas on the basis of the forecasted discharge can be prepared. The predicted losses and the delimited flooded areas provide a complementary information for assessing the need of preventive measures on one hand on the long-term timescale and on the other hand 6h-24h in advance of a predicted flood. To conclude, we can state that the transfer function offers the possibility for an integral assessment of floodplains as a basis for spatially-explicit flood loss forecasts. The procedure has been developed and tested in the alpine and pre-alpine environment of the Aare river catchment upstream of Bern, Switzerland.

  10. Spatial-temporal reproducibility assessment of global seasonal forecasting system version 5 model for Dam Inflow forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moon, S.; Suh, A. S.; Soohee, H.

    2016-12-01

    The GloSea5(Global Seasonal forecasting system version 5) is provided and operated by the KMA(Korea Meteorological Administration). GloSea5 provides Forecast(FCST) and Hindcast(HCST) data and its horizontal resolution is about 60km (0.83° x 0.56°) in the mid-latitudes. In order to use this data in watershed-scale water management, GloSea5 needs spatial-temporal downscaling. As such, statistical downscaling was used to correct for systematic biases of variables and to improve data reliability. HCST data is provided in ensemble format, and the highest statistical correlation(R2 = 0.60, RMSE = 88.92, NSE = 0.57) of ensemble precipitation was reported for the Yongdam Dam watershed on the #6 grid. Additionally, the original GloSea5(600.1mm) showed the greatest difference(-26.5%) compared to observations(816.1mm) during the summer flood season. However, downscaled GloSea5 was shown to have only a ?3.1% error rate. Most of the underestimated results corresponded to precipitation levels during the flood season and the downscaled GloSea5 showed important results of restoration in precipitation levels. Per the analysis results of spatial autocorrelation using seasonal Moran's I, the spatial distribution was shown to be statistically significant. These results can improve the uncertainty of original GloSea5 and substantiate its spatial-temporal accuracy and validity. The spatial-temporal reproducibility assessment will play a very important role as basic data for watershed-scale water management.

  11. Health technology assessment in Singapore.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pwee, Keng Ho

    2009-07-01

    The Republic of Singapore is an island city-state in Southeast Asia. Its population enjoys good health and the Singapore Ministry of Health's mission is to promote good health and reduce illness, ensure access to good and affordable health care, and pursue medical excellence. This is achieved through a healthcare system that includes both private and public sector elements. The financing philosophy of Singapore's healthcare delivery system is based on individual responsibility and community support. Health care in Singapore is financed by a combination of taxes, employee medical benefits, compulsory health savings, insurance, and out-of-pocket payment. The capability for health technology assessment in Singapore was developed concurrently with its medical device regulation system in the 1990s. The first formal unit with health technology assessment (HTA) functions was established in September 1995. Today, HTA features in decision making for the Standard Drug List, licensing of medical clinics, the Health Service Development Programme, healthcare subsidies, and policy development. The public sector healthcare delivery clusters have also recently started health services research units with HTA functions. Singapore is organizing the 6th Health Technology Assessment International (HTAi) Annual Meeting in June 2009. Bringing this prestigious international conference to Asia for the first time will help raise awareness of HTA in the region.

  12. Assessment of marine weather forecasts over the Indian sector of Southern Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gera, Anitha; Mahapatra, D. K.; Sharma, Kuldeep; Prakash, Satya; Mitra, A. K.; Iyengar, G. R.; Rajagopal, E. N.; Anilkumar, N.

    2017-09-01

    The Southern Ocean (SO) is one of the important regions where significant processes and feedbacks of the Earth's climate take place. Expeditions to the SO provide useful data for improving global weather/climate simulations and understanding many processes. Some of the uncertainties in these weather/climate models arise during the first few days of simulation/forecast and do not grow much further. NCMRWF issued real-time five day weather forecasts of mean sea level pressure, surface winds, winds at 500 hPa & 850 hPa and rainfall, daily to NCAOR to provide guidance for their expedition to Indian sector of SO during the austral summer of 2014-2015. Evaluation of the skill of these forecasts indicates possible error growth in the atmospheric model at shorter time scales. The error growth is assessed using the model analysis/reanalysis, satellite data and observations made during the expedition. The observed variability of sub-seasonal rainfall associated with mid-latitude systems is seen to exhibit eastward propagations and are well reproduced in the model forecasts. All cyclonic disturbances including the sub-polar lows and tropical cyclones that occurred during this period were well captured in the model forecasts. Overall, this model performs reasonably well over the Indian sector of the SO in medium range time scale.

  13. National Coal Utilization Assessment: a preliminary assessment of coal utilizaton in the South. [Southern USA to 2020; forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berry, L. B.; Bjornstad, D. J.; Boercker, F. D.

    1978-01-01

    Some of the major problems and issues related to coal development and use in the South are identified and assessed assuming a base-case energy scenario for the next 45 years. This scenario assumes a midrange of coal use and a relatively high rate of nuclear use over the forecast period. The potential impacts from coal development and use are significant, particularly in the 1990-2020 time period. Practically all available sites suitable for power plant development in the assessment will be utilized by 2020. Overall, sulfur dioxide will be well below the annual primary standard; however, several local hot-spot areas were identified. In addition, sulfate concentrations will be increased significantly, particularly over Virginia, West Virginia, and northern Kentucky. Coal mining is expected to affect 6 of the 12 major ecological regions. Coal mining will lead to increased average suspended sediment concentrations in some river basins, and special measures will be required to control acid discharges from active mines in pyritic regions. The increased mining of coal and subsequent sulfur dioxide increases from its combustion may also give rise to a land-use confrontation with food and fiber production. Potential health effects from exposure to sulfur dioxide and sulfates are expected to increase rapidly in several areas, particularly in parts of Kentucky, Maryland, District of Columbia, and Georgia. Regional social costs should be relatively low, although some site-specific costs are expected to be very high. Alternative energy technologies, careful siting selection, and deployment of environmental control technologies and operating policies will be required to reduce or mitigate these potential impacts.

  14. Short-term sea ice forecasting: An assessment of ice concentration and ice drift forecasts using the U.S. Navy's Arctic Cap Nowcast/Forecast System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hebert, David A.; Allard, Richard A.; Metzger, E. Joseph; Posey, Pamela G.; Preller, Ruth H.; Wallcraft, Alan J.; Phelps, Michael W.; Smedstad, Ole Martin

    2015-12-01

    In this study the forecast skill of the U.S. Navy operational Arctic sea ice forecast system, the Arctic Cap Nowcast/Forecast System (ACNFS), is presented for the period February 2014 to June 2015. ACNFS is designed to provide short term, 1-7 day forecasts of Arctic sea ice and ocean conditions. Many quantities are forecast by ACNFS; the most commonly used include ice concentration, ice thickness, ice velocity, sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity, and sea surface velocities. Ice concentration forecast skill is compared to a persistent ice state and historical sea ice climatology. Skill scores are focused on areas where ice concentration changes by ±5% or more, and are therefore limited to primarily the marginal ice zone. We demonstrate that ACNFS forecasts are skilful compared to assuming a persistent ice state, especially beyond 24 h. ACNFS is also shown to be particularly skilful compared to a climatologic state for forecasts up to 102 h. Modeled ice drift velocity is compared to observed buoy data from the International Arctic Buoy Programme. A seasonal bias is shown where ACNFS is slower than IABP velocity in the summer months and faster in the winter months. In February 2015, ACNFS began to assimilate a blended ice concentration derived from Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) and the Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS). Preliminary results show that assimilating AMSR2 blended with IMS improves the short-term forecast skill and ice edge location compared to the independently derived National Ice Center Ice Edge product.

  15. Health technology assessment in Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez-Dantés, Octavio; Frenk, Julio

    2009-07-01

    The history of health technology assessment (HTA) in Mexico is examined, starting with the efforts to incorporate this topic into the policy agenda and culminating with the recent creation of a specialized public agency. Information was gathered through a bibliographic search and interviews with actors involved in HTA in Mexico. HTA efforts were developed in Mexico since the mid-1980s with the participation both of academics and of policy makers, a relationship that eventually led to the creation of the Center for Technological Excellence within the Ministry of Health. Institutionalization of HTA in resource-constrained settings requires the development of a critical mass of researchers involved in this field, the implementation of information efforts, and the establishment of strong relationships between HTA experts and policy makers.

  16. Hydrological drought forecasting and skill assessment for the Limpopo river basin, Southern Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Trambauer

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Ensemble hydrological predictions are normally obtained by forcing hydrological models with ensembles of atmospheric forecasts produced by Numerical weather prediction models. To be of practical value to water users, such forecasts should not only be sufficiently skilful, they should also provide information that is relevant to the decisions end users make. The semi-arid Limpopo basin in Southern Africa has experienced severe droughts in the past, resulting in crop failures, high economic losses and the need for humanitarian aid. In this paper we address the seasonal prediction of hydrological drought for the Limpopo river basin by testing three proposed forecasting systems (FS that can provide operational guidance to dam operators and water managers within the basin at the seasonal time scale. All three FS include a distributed hydrological model of the basin, and are forced with either (i a global atmospheric model forecast (ECMWF seasonal forecast system – S4, (ii the commonly applied Ensemble Streamflow Prediction approach (ESP using resampled historical data, or (iii a conditional ESP approach (ESPcond, which is conditional on the ENSO signal. We determine the skill of the three systems in predicting drought indices and streamflow. We also assess the skill of the model in predicting indicators that are meaningful to the local end users in the basin. FS_S4 shows moderate skill for all lead times (3, 4, and 5 months and aggregation periods. FS_ESP also performs better than climatology for the shorter lead times, but with a lower skill than FS_S4. FS_ESPcond shows skill in between the other two FS, though its skill is shown to be more robust. The skills of FS_ESP and FS_ESPcond reduce rapidly with increasing lead time. Both FS_S4 and FS_ESPcond show good potential for seasonal hydrological drought forecasting in the Limpopo river basin, which is encouraging in the context of providing better operational guidance to water users.

  17. Technology assessment of applied techniques for exploitation of geothermal energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1977-04-01

    Studies were made to elucidate the effects of technological development of natural steam and hot water on the general social and industrial environments. These were followed by studies of enhanced methods for the forecasting of these impacts. The studies included assessments of actual conditions and the preparation of regional models, ranging from rural to urban-fringe situations. The economic implications of geothermal development in various regional situations are discussed, and the models developed provide for the integration of new data and their extrapolation to as yet uncertain situations.

  18. Assessing existing drought monitoring and forecasting capacities, mitigation and adaptation practices in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyabeze, W. R.; Dlamini, L.; Lahlou, O.; Imani, Y.; Alaoui, S. B.; Vermooten, J. S. A.

    2012-04-01

    Drought is one of the major natural hazards in many parts of the world, including Africa and some regions in Europe. Drought events have resulted in extensive damages to livelihoods, environment and economy. In 2011, a consortium consisting of 19 organisations from both Africa and Europe started a project (DEWFORA) aimed at developing a framework for the provision of early warning and response through drought impact mitigation for Africa. This framework covers the whole chain from monitoring and vulnerability assessment to forecasting, warning, response and knowledge dissemination. This paper presents the first results of the capacity assessment of drought monitoring and forecasting systems in Africa, the existing institutional frameworks and drought mitigation and adaptation practices. Its focus is particularly on the historical drought mitigation and adaptation actions identified in the North Africa - Maghreb Region (Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia) and in the Southern Africa - Limpopo Basin. This is based on an extensive review of historical drought experiences. From the 1920's to 2009, the study identified 37 drought seasons in the North African - Maghreb Region and 33 drought seasons in the Southern Africa - Limpopo Basin. Existing literature tends to capture the spatial extent of drought at national and administrative scale in great detail. This is driven by the need to map drought impacts (food shortage, communities affected) in order to inform drought relief efforts (short-term drought mitigation measures). However, the mapping of drought at catchment scale (hydrological unit), required for longer-term measures, is not well documented. At regional level, both in North Africa and Southern Africa, two organisations are involved in drought monitoring and forecasting, while at national level 22 organisations are involved in North Africa and 37 in Southern Africa. Regarding drought related mitigation actions, the inventory shows that the most common actions

  19. Technology Assessment Report: Aqueous Sludge Gasification Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    The study reveals that sludge gasification is a potentially suitable alternative to conventional sludge handling and disposal methods. However, very few commercial operations are in existence. The limited pilot, demonstration or commercial application of gasification technology t...

  20. Evaluation and Assessment in Educational Information Technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Leping, Ed.; Johnson, D. LaMont, Ed.; Maddux, Cleborne D., Ed.; Henderson, Norma J., Ed.

    This book contains the following articles on evaluating and assessing educational information technology: (1) "Assessing Learning in the New Age of Information Technology in Education" (Leping Liu, D. LaMont Johnson, Cleborne D. Maddux, and Norma J. Henderson); (2) "Instruments for Assessing the Impact of Technology in Education" (Rhonda…

  1. HVDC power transmission technology assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hauth, R.L.; Tatro, P.J.; Railing, B.D. [New England Power Service Co., Westborough, MA (United States); Johnson, B.K.; Stewart, J.R. [Power Technologies, Inc., Schenectady, NY (United States); Fink, J.L.

    1997-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop an assessment of the national utility system`s needs for electric transmission during the period 1995-2020 that could be met by future reduced-cost HVDC systems. The assessment was to include an economic evaluation of HVDC as a means for meeting those needs as well as a comparison with competing technologies such as ac transmission with and without Flexible AC Transmission System (FACTS) controllers. The role of force commutated dc converters was to be assumed where appropriate. The assessment begins by identifying the general needs for transmission in the U.S. in the context of a future deregulated power industry. The possible roles for direct current transmission are then postulated in terms of representative scenarios. A few of the scenarios are illustrated with the help of actual U.S. system examples. non-traditional applications as well as traditional applications such as long lines and asynchronous interconnections are discussed. The classical ``break-even distance`` concept for comparing HVDC and ac lines is used to assess the selected scenarios. The impact of reduced-cost converters is reflected in terms of the break-even distance. This report presents a comprehensive review of the functional benefits of HVDC transmission and updated cost data for both ac and dc system components. It also provides some provocative thoughts on how direct current transmission might be applied to better utilize and expand our nation`s increasingly stressed transmission assets.

  2. Technology modernization assessment flexible automation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bennett, D.W.; Boyd, D.R.; Hansen, N.H.; Hansen, M.A.; Yount, J.A.

    1990-12-01

    The objectives of this report are: to present technology assessment guidelines to be considered in conjunction with defense regulations before an automation project is developed to give examples showing how assessment guidelines may be applied to a current project to present several potential areas where automation might be applied successfully in the depot system. Depots perform primarily repair and remanufacturing operations, with limited small batch manufacturing runs. While certain activities (such as Management Information Systems and warehousing) are directly applicable to either environment, the majority of applications will require combining existing and emerging technologies in different ways, with the special needs of depot remanufacturing environment. Industry generally enjoys the ability to make revisions to its product lines seasonally, followed by batch runs of thousands or more. Depot batch runs are in the tens, at best the hundreds, of parts with a potential for large variation in product mix; reconfiguration may be required on a week-to-week basis. This need for a higher degree of flexibility suggests a higher level of operator interaction, and, in turn, control systems that go beyond the state of the art for less flexible automation and industry in general. This report investigates the benefits and barriers to automation and concludes that, while significant benefits do exist for automation, depots must be prepared to carefully investigate the technical feasibility of each opportunity and the life-cycle costs associated with implementation. Implementation is suggested in two ways: (1) develop an implementation plan for automation technologies based on results of small demonstration automation projects; (2) use phased implementation for both these and later stage automation projects to allow major technical and administrative risk issues to be addressed. 10 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs. (JF)

  3. Forecasting the Market for New Communication Technology: The Home Video Player Experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klopfenstein, Bruce C.

    This paper describes a critical study of the available forecasts and forecasting studies for the home video player market over a 15-year period which was undertaken to discover why so many forecasts were wrong about consumer adoption of home videocassette players and videodisk players, the reasons for these errors, and ways in which this knowledge…

  4. Assessing the value of increased model resolution in forecasting fire danger

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeanne Hoadley; Miriam Rorig; Ken Westrick; Larry Bradshaw; Sue Ferguson; Scott Goodrick; Paul Werth

    2003-01-01

    The fire season of 2000 was used as a case study to assess the value of increasing mesoscale model resolution for fire weather and fire danger forecasting. With a domain centered on Western Montana and Northern Idaho, MM5 simulations were run at 36, 12, and 4-km resolutions for a 30 day period at the height of the fire season. Verification analyses for meteorological...

  5. SCORING ASSESSMENT AND FORECASTING MODELS BANKRUPTCY RISK OF COMPANIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SUSU Stefanita

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Bankruptcy risk made the subject of many research studies that aim at identifying the time of the bankruptcy, the factors that compete to achieve this state, the indicators that best express this orientation (the bankruptcy. The threats to enterprises require the managers knowledge of continually economic and financial situations, and vulnerable areas with development potential. Managers need to identify and properly manage the threats that would prevent achieving the targets. In terms of methods known in the literature of assessment and evaluation of bankruptcy risk they are static, functional, strategic, and scoring nonfinancial models. This article addresses Altman and Conan-Holder-known internationally as the model developed at national level by two teachers from prestigious universities in our country-the Robu-Mironiuc model. Those models are applied to data released by the profit and loss account and balance sheet Turism Covasna company over which bankruptcy risk analysis is performed. The results of the analysis are interpreted while trying to formulate solutions to the economic and financial viability of the entity.

  6. Shelf-life assessment and forecast in retail fresh hake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miriam R. Garcia

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Fish quality has a direct impact on market price and its accurate assessment and prediction is of main importance to prevent food wastage due to extremely conservative product shelf-life estimations. In this work we present a general methodology to derive predictive models of fish freshness under different storage conditions. The approach focuses in finding growth models of specific spoilage micro-organisms in hake sufficiently informative to estimate two common quality market indexes. In order to get enough predictive capabilities, we make use of Optimal Experimental Design and analyze the statistics associated with the predictions due to fish variability. As a result, both quality indexes and their variability can be estimated under different temperature profiles. Although the methodology here presented has been applied and validated in hake, it is sufficiently general to be used in other fish species and under different stress variables. In addition, the parameters found for this case are robust enough to predict quality in conditions not used during the model calibration, such as for example hake captured with a different commercial fishing technique.

  7. Technology-assisted dietary assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Fengqing; Mariappan, Anand; Boushey, Carol J.; Kerr, Deb; Lutes, Kyle D.; Ebert, David S.; Delp, Edward J.

    2008-02-01

    Dietary intake provides valuable insights for mounting intervention programs for prevention of disease. With growing concern for adolescent obesity, the need to accurately measure diet becomes imperative. Assessment among adolescents is problematic as this group has irregular eating patterns and have less enthusiasm for recording food intake. Preliminary studies among adolescents suggest that innovative use of technology may improve the accuracy of diet information from young people. In this paper, we propose a novel food record method using a mobile device that will provide an accurate account of daily food and nutrient intake among adolescents. Our approach includes the use of image analysis tools for identification and quantification of food consumption. Images obtained before and after food is consumed can be used to estimate the diet of an individual. In this paper we describe our initial results and indicate the potential of the proposed system.

  8. National forecast for geothermal resource exploration and development with techniques for policy analysis and resource assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cassel, T.A.V.; Shimamoto, G.T.; Amundsen, C.B.; Blair, P.D.; Finan, W.F.; Smith, M.R.; Edeistein, R.H.

    1982-03-31

    The backgrund, structure and use of modern forecasting methods for estimating the future development of geothermal energy in the United States are documented. The forecasting instrument may be divided into two sequential submodels. The first predicts the timing and quality of future geothermal resource discoveries from an underlying resource base. This resource base represents an expansion of the widely-publicized USGS Circular 790. The second submodel forecasts the rate and extent of utilization of geothermal resource discoveries. It is based on the joint investment behavior of resource developers and potential users as statistically determined from extensive industry interviews. It is concluded that geothermal resource development, especially for electric power development, will play an increasingly significant role in meeting US energy demands over the next 2 decades. Depending on the extent of R and D achievements in related areas of geosciences and technology, expected geothermal power development will reach between 7700 and 17300 Mwe by the year 2000. This represents between 8 and 18% of the expected electric energy demand (GWh) in western and northwestern states.

  9. ASSESSMENT OF QUALITY OF INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Larisa Alexejevna Ismagilova

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available We consider the topical issue of implementation of innovative technologies in the aircraft engine building industry. In this industry, products with high reliability requirements are developed and mass-produced. These products combine the latest achievements of science and technology. To make a decision on implementation of innovative technologies, a comprehensive assessment is carried out. It affects the efficiency of the innovations realization. In connection with this, the assessment of quality of innovative technologies is a key aspect in the selection of technological processes for their implementation. Problems concerning assessment of the quality of new technologies and processes of production are considered in the suggested method with respect to new positions. The developed method of assessing the quality of innovative technologies stands out for formed system of the qualimetric characteristics ensuring the effectiveness, efficiency, adaptability of innovative technologies and processes. The feature of suggested system of assessment is that it is based on principles of matching and grouping of quality indicators of innovative technologies and the characteristics of technological processes. The indicators are assessed from the standpoint of feasibility, technologies competiveness and commercial demand of products. In this paper, we discuss the example of implementing the approach of assessing the quality of the innovative technology of high-tech products such as turbine aircraft engine.

  10. Assessing High-Resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Forecasts Using an Object-Based Diagnostic Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-02-01

    Cold, normal, warm conditions Continuous Visual, continuous, probabilistic, spatial, ensemble Maximum temperature Object-, or event-oriented...errors are much smaller than the expected error in the forecast, allowing them to be ignored. Verification results tend to be more trustworthy when

  11. Developing a European Drought Observatory for Monitoring, Assessing and Forecasting Droughts across the European Continent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogt, J.; Barbosa, P.; Hofer, B.; Magni, D.; Jager, A. D.; Singleton, A.; Horion, S.; Sepulcre, G.; Micale, F.; Sokolova, E.; Calcagni, L.; Marioni, M.; Antofie, T. E.

    2011-12-01

    Many European countries have repeatedly been affected by droughts, resulting in considerable ecological and economic damage. Climate change studies indicate a trend towards increasing climate variability most likely resulting in more frequent drought occurrences also in Europe. Against this background, the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) is developing methods and tools for assessing, monitoring and forecasting droughts in Europe and develops a European Drought Observatory (EDO) to complement national activities with a European view. As droughts affect the entire water cycle continuous monitoring of a suite of indicators is required. Drought indicators at continental scale are supplemented by indicators at national, regional and local scales, providing more detailed information. At the core of the European Drought Observatory (EDO) are a portal and a map server presenting Europe-wide up-to-date drought-relevant information to the public and to decision makers in policy and water resources management. The final portal will include access to metadata catalogues, media reports, a map server and other related resources. The current version of EDO publishes continental information based on data processed and analysed at JRC as well as more detailed information at national and river basin scale processed by the local authorities. Available drought products include monthly updated Standardized Precipitation Indices (SPI), modelled soil moisture anomalies, remote sensing observations on the state of the vegetation cover (i.e. fAPAR and NDWI) and groundwater levels. A one-week soil moisture anomaly forecast complements the picture. Access to information at the national and river basin scale is established through interoperability arrangements with local authorities, making use of a special metadata catalogue and OWS standards (especially WMS and WCS). In addition, time series of drought indices can be retrieved for grid cells and administrative regions in

  12. Hydrological drought forecasting and skill assessment for the Limpopo River basin, southern Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trambauer, P.; Werner, M.; Winsemius, H. C.; Maskey, S.; Dutra, E.; Uhlenbrook, S.

    2015-04-01

    Ensemble hydrological predictions are normally obtained by forcing hydrological models with ensembles of atmospheric forecasts produced by numerical weather prediction models. To be of practical value to water users, such forecasts should not only be sufficiently skilful, they should also provide information that is relevant to the decisions end users make. The semi-arid Limpopo Basin in southern Africa has experienced severe droughts in the past, resulting in crop failure, economic losses and the need for humanitarian aid. In this paper we address the seasonal prediction of hydrological drought in the Limpopo River basin by testing three proposed forecasting systems (FS) that can provide operational guidance to reservoir operators and water managers at the seasonal timescale. All three FS include a distributed hydrological model of the basin, which is forced with either (i) a global atmospheric model forecast (ECMWF seasonal forecast system - S4), (ii) the commonly applied ensemble streamflow prediction approach (ESP) using resampled historical data, or (iii) a conditional ESP approach (ESPcond) that is conditional on the ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) signal. We determine the skill of the three systems in predicting streamflow and commonly used drought indices. We also assess the skill in predicting indicators that are meaningful to local end users in the basin. FS_S4 shows moderate skill for all lead times (3, 4, and 5 months) and aggregation periods. FS_ESP also performs better than climatology for the shorter lead times, but with lower skill than FS_S4. FS_ESPcond shows intermediate skill compared to the other two FS, though its skill is shown to be more robust. The skill of FS_ESP and FS_ESPcond is found to decrease rapidly with increasing lead time when compared to FS_S4. The results show that both FS_S4 and FS_ESPcond have good potential for seasonal hydrological drought forecasting in the Limpopo River basin, which is encouraging in the context of

  13. Modelling in Medical Technology Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B.C. Michel (Bowine)

    1996-01-01

    textabstractHealth care is a rapidly developing field in which new technologies are introduced continuously. Not all new technologies have the same impact however: most represent only small changes in existing technologies, whereas only a few - like organ transplants - really are revolutionary new d

  14. Liquefaction technology assessment. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1979-05-01

    A survey of coal liquefaction technology and analysis of projected relative performance of high potential candidates has been completed and the results are reported here. The key objectives of the study included preparation of a broad survey of the status of liquefaction processes under development, selection of a limited number of high potential process candidates for further study, and an analysis of the relative commercial potential of these candidates. Procedures which contributed to the achievement of the above key goals included definition of the characteristics and development status of known major liquefaction process candidates, development of standardized procedures for assessing technical, environmental, economic and product characteristics for the separate candidates, and development of procedures for selecting and comparing high potential processes. The comparisons were made for three production areas and four marketing areas of the US. In view of the broad scope of the objectives the survey was a limited effort. It used the experience gained during preparation of seven comprehensive conceptual designs/economic evaluations plus comprehensive reviews of the designs, construction and operation of several pilot plants. Results and conclusions must be viewed in the perspective of the information available, how this information was treated, and the full context of the economic comparison results. Comparative economics are presented as ratios; they are not intended to be predictors of absolute values. Because the true cost of constructing and operating large coal conversion facilities will be known only after commercialization, relative values are considered more appropriate. (LTN)

  15. Social Shaping in Danish Technology Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Anne Grethe; Clausen, Christian

    2003-01-01

    for technology policy initiatives at the beginning of the new millennium, as prerequisites for socially feasible and desirable technology development and innovation. On the basis of the Danish technology assessments of the 1980s, it is argued that technology assessments and the social shaping perspectives...... in these projects contributed to new insights into the processes of technological change and thus to policy formulation. The social shaping perspective and technology assessment experiences are suggested as important guides to future technology strategies.......The term ‘social shaping of technology’ has been used broadly as a response to techno-economic deterministic understandings of the relations between technology and society. Social shaping has brought together analysts from different backgrounds who share a common interest in the role of social...

  16. A national framework for flood forecasting model assessment for use in operations and investment planning over England and Wales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Robert J.; Wells, Steven C.; Cole, Steven J.

    2016-04-01

    It has been common for flood forecasting systems to be commissioned at a catchment or regional level in response to local priorities and hydrological conditions, leading to variety in system design and model choice. As systems mature and efficiencies of national management are sought, there can be a drive towards system rationalisation, gaining an overview of model performance and consideration of simplification through model-type convergence. Flood forecasting model assessments, whilst overseen at a national level, may be commissioned and managed at a catchment and regional level, take a variety of forms and be large in number. This presents a challenge when an integrated national assessment is required to guide operational use of flood forecasts and plan future investment in flood forecasting models and supporting hydrometric monitoring. This contribution reports on how a nationally consistent framework for flood forecasting model performance has been developed to embrace many past, ongoing and future assessments for local river systems by engineering consultants across England & Wales. The outcome is a Performance Summary for every site model assessed which, on a single page, contains relevant catchment information for context, a selection of overlain forecast and observed hydrographs and a set of performance statistics with associated displays of novel condensed form. One display provides performance comparison with other models that may exist for the site. The performance statistics include skill scores for forecasting events (flow/level threshold crossings) of differing severity/rarity, indicating their probability and likely timing, which have real value in an operational setting. The local models assessed can be of any type and span rainfall-runoff (conceptual and transfer function) and flow routing (hydrological and hydrodynamic) forms. Also accommodated by the framework is the national G2G (Grid-to-Grid) distributed hydrological model, providing area

  17. New developments at the Flood Forecasting Centre: operational flood risk assessment and guidance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilling, Charlie

    2017-04-01

    The Flood Forecasting Centre (FFC) is a partnership between the UK Met Office, the Environment Agency and Natural Resources Wales. The FFC was established in 2009 to provide an overview of flood risk across England and Wales and to provide flood guidance services primarily for the emergency response community. The FFC provides forecasts for all natural sources of flooding, these being fluvial, surface water, coastal and groundwater. This involves an assessment of possible hydrometeorological events and their impacts over the next five days. During times of heightened flood risk, the close communication between the FFC, the Environment Agency and Natural Resources Wales allows mobilization and deployment of staff and flood defences. Following a number of severe flood events during winters 2013-14 and 2015-16, coupled with a drive from the changing landscape in national incident response, there is a desire to identify flood events at even longer lead time. This earlier assessment and mobilization is becoming increasingly important and high profile within Government. For example, following the exceptional flooding across the north of England in December 2015 the Environment Agency have invested in 40 km of temporary barriers that will be moved around the country to help mitigate against the impacts of large flood events. Efficient and effective use of these barriers depends on identifying the broad regions at risk well in advance of the flood, as well as scaling the magnitude and duration of large events. Partly in response to this, the FFC now produce a flood risk assessment for a month ahead. In addition, since January 2017, the 'new generation' daily flood guidance statement includes an assessment of flood risk for the 6 to 10 day period. Examples of both these new products will be introduced, as will some of the new developments in science and technical capability that underpin these assessments. Examples include improvements to fluvial forecasting from 'fluvial

  18. Predictive Skill of Meteorological Drought Based on Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts: A Real-Time Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, L. C.; Mo, K. C.; Zhang, Q.; Huang, J.

    2014-12-01

    Drought prediction from monthly to seasonal time scales is of critical importance to disaster mitigation, agricultural planning, and multi-purpose reservoir management. Starting in December 2012, NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has been providing operational Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Outlooks using the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) forecasts, to support CPC's monthly drought outlooks and briefing activities. The current NMME system consists of six model forecasts from U.S. and Canada modeling centers, including the CFSv2, CM2.1, GEOS-5, CCSM3.0, CanCM3, and CanCM4 models. In this study, we conduct an assessment of the predictive skill of meteorological drought using real-time NMME forecasts for the period from May 2012 to May 2014. The ensemble SPI forecasts are the equally weighted mean of the six model forecasts. Two performance measures, the anomaly correlation coefficient and root-mean-square errors against the observations, are used to evaluate forecast skill.Similar to the assessment based on NMME retrospective forecasts, predictive skill of monthly-mean precipitation (P) forecasts is generally low after the second month and errors vary among models. Although P forecast skill is not large, SPI predictive skill is high and the differences among models are small. The skill mainly comes from the P observations appended to the model forecasts. This factor also contributes to the similarity of SPI prediction among the six models. Still, NMME SPI ensemble forecasts have higher skill than those based on individual models or persistence, and the 6-month SPI forecasts are skillful out to four months. The three major drought events occurred during the 2012-2014 period, the 2012 Central Great Plains drought, the 2013 Upper Midwest flash drought, and 2013-2014 California drought, are used as examples to illustrate the system's strength and limitations. For precipitation-driven drought events, such as the 2012 Central Great Plains drought

  19. Establishment of Health Technology Assessment in Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shila Doaee

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Objective: Health Technology Assessment (HTA aims at informing healthcare policymakers, managers and practitioners of the "clinical consequences, but also the economic, ethical, and other social implications of the diffusion and use of a specific procedure or technique on medical practice". So considering the policy-oriented nature of HTA that calls for a close integration into the functioning and governance of health systems the present study focuses on executive processes and function of the HTA office of Iran.Materials and methods: Data of this review study were collected through documented sources and observations from 2007 to 2010.Results: Health Technology Assessment began its activities as a secretariat in the Deputy of Health in 2007 and it continues as a Health Technology Assessment Office at the Management of Health Technology Assessment, Standardization, and Tariff at the Deputy of curative affairs of MOHME in the beginning of 2010.14 Technology of modern medical equipment and 8 pharmaceutical medicine are assessed, Now many of measures for HTA establishment  such as cooperation National Institute of Health Research (NIHR, Holding scientific committee meetings, Establishing  the  Master's degree of  health technology assessment ,Building capacities for health technology assessment through education in major universities of the country.Conclusion: pay attention to health technology assessment, selection and application of proper technologies in the frameworks of policy-making and managerial strategies and make efforts to develop it with the support of the governmental in Iran is necessary.

  20. Current and Potential Use of Technology Forecasting Tools in the Federal Government

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-01

    seeks to “develop and test methods for generating accurate forecasts for significant [S&T] milestones, by combining the judgements of many experts.”2 To...a primarily respondent-driven sampling method was used to identify and facilitate contact with appropriate individuals. An initial list of...Forecasting ............................................15 1. Agencies that Use Automated Methods ......................................................15 2

  1. ASSESSMENT OF GALLIUM OXIDE TECHNOLOGY

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-08-01

    Universe" ...................................... 5 Figure 4: MEA Architecture [60...weight. Figure 4: MEA Architecture [60] 2.2 How Does Ga2O3 Compare to Other Semiconductors? We are paying attention to β-Ga2O3 because of its...growth is possible. • Limited crystal orientation have been demonstrated. • Technology base is narrowly located in Japan . Mainstream technology

  2. Technology for Online Portfolio Assessment Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrara, Victoria M.

    2010-01-01

    Portfolio assessment is a valid and reliable method to assess experiential learning. Developing a fully online portfolio assessment program is neither easy nor inexpensive. The institution seeking to take its portfolio assessment program online must make a commitment to its students by offering the technologies most suited to meet students' needs.…

  3. An application and verification of ensemble forecasting on wind power to assess operational risk indicators in power grids

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alessandrini, S.; Ciapessoni, E.; Cirio, D.; Pitto, A.; Sperati, S. [Ricerca sul Sistema Energetico RSE S.p.A., Milan (Italy). Power System Development Dept. and Environment and Sustainable Development Dept.; Pinson, P. [Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby (Denmark). DTU Informatics

    2012-07-01

    Wind energy is part of the so-called not schedulable renewable sources, i.e. it must be exploited when it is available, otherwise it is lost. In European regulation it has priority of dispatch over conventional generation, to maximize green energy production. However, being variable and uncertain, wind (and solar) generation raises several issues for the security of the power grids operation. In particular, Transmission System Operators (TSOs) need as accurate as possible forecasts. Nowadays a deterministic approach in wind power forecasting (WPF) could easily be considered insufficient to face the uncertainty associated to wind energy. In order to obtain information about the accuracy of a forecast and a reliable estimation of its uncertainty, probabilistic forecasting is becoming increasingly widespread. In this paper we investigate the performances of the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdelling Limited area Ensemble Prediction System (COSMO-LEPS). First the ensemble application is followed by assessment of its properties (i.e. consistency, reliability) using different verification indices and diagrams calculated on wind power. Then we provide examples of how EPS based wind power forecast can be used in power system security analyses. Quantifying the forecast uncertainty allows to determine more accurately the regulation reserve requirements, hence improving security of operation and reducing system costs. In particular, the paper also presents a probabilistic power flow (PPF) technique developed at RSE and aimed to evaluate the impact of wind power forecast accuracy on the probability of security violations in power systems. (orig.)

  4. Heat wave over India during summer 2015: an assessment of real time extended range forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pattanaik, D. R.; Mohapatra, M.; Srivastava, A. K.; Kumar, Arun

    2017-08-01

    Hot winds are the marked feature of summer season in India during late spring preceding the climatological onset of the monsoon season in June. Some years the conditions becomes very vulnerable with the maximum temperature ( T max) exceeding 45 °C for many days over parts of north-western, eastern coastal states of India and Indo-Gangetic plain. During summer of 2015 (late May to early June) eastern coastal states, central and northwestern parts of India experienced severe heat wave conditions leading to loss of thousands of human life in extreme high temperature conditions. It is not only the loss of human life but also the animals and birds were very vulnerable to this extreme heat wave conditions. In this study, an attempt is made to assess the performance of real time extended range forecast (forecast up to 3 weeks) of this scorching T max based on the NCEP's Climate Forecast System (CFS) latest version coupled model (CFSv2). The heat wave condition was very severe during the week from 22 to 28 May with subsequent week from 29 May to 4 June also witnessed high T max over many parts of central India including eastern coastal states of India. The 8 ensemble members of operational CFSv2 model are used once in a week to prepare the weekly bias corrected deterministic (ensemble mean) T max forecast for 3 weeks valid from Friday to Thursday coinciding with the heat wave periods of 2015. Using the 8 ensemble members separately and the CFSv2 corresponding hindcast climatology the probability of above and below normal T max is also prepared for the same 3 weeks. The real time deterministic and probabilistic forecasts did indicate impending heat wave over many parts of India during late May and early June of 2015 associated with strong northwesterly wind over main land mass of India, delaying the sea breeze, leading to heat waves over eastern coastal regions of India. Thus, the capability of coupled model in providing early warning of such killer heat wave can be very

  5. ASSESSMENT OF QUALITY OF INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGIES

    OpenAIRE

    Larisa Alexejevna Ismagilova; Nadegda Aleksandrovna Sukhova

    2016-01-01

    We consider the topical issue of implementation of innovative technologies in the aircraft engine building industry. In this industry, products with high reliability requirements are developed and mass-produced. These products combine the latest achievements of science and technology. To make a decision on implementation of innovative technologies, a comprehensive assessment is carried out. It affects the efficiency of the innovations realization. In connection with this, the assessment of qu...

  6. Petascale Diagnostic Assessment of the Global Portfolio Rainfall Space Missions' Ability to Support Flood Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, P. M.; Chaney, N.; Herman, J. D.; Wood, E. F.; Ferringer, M. P.

    2015-12-01

    This research represents a multi-institutional collaboration between Cornell University, The Aerospace Corporation, and Princeton University that has completed a Petascale diagnostic assessment of the current 10 satellite missions providing rainfall observations. Our diagnostic assessment has required four core tasks: (1) formally linking high-resolution astrodynamics design and coordination of space assets with their global hydrological impacts within a Petascale "many-objective" global optimization framework, (2) developing a baseline diagnostic evaluation of a 1-degree resolution global implementation of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model to establish the required satellite observation frequencies and coverage to maintain acceptable global flood forecasts, (3) evaluating the limitations and vulnerabilities of the full suite of current satellite precipitation missions including the recently approved Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission, and (4) conceptualizing the next generation spaced-based platforms for water cycle observation. Our team exploited over 100 Million hours of computing access on the 700,000+ core Blue Waters machine to radically advance our ability to discover and visualize key system tradeoffs and sensitivities. This project represents to our knowledge the first attempt to develop a 10,000 member Monte Carlo global hydrologic simulation at one degree resolution that characterizes the uncertain effects of changing the available frequencies of satellite precipitation on drought and flood forecasts. The simulation—optimization components of the work have set a theoretical baseline for the best possible frequencies and coverages for global precipitation given unlimited investment, broad international coordination in reconfiguring existing assets, and new satellite constellation design objectives informed directly by key global hydrologic forecasting requirements. Our research poses a step towards realizing the integrated

  7. Life Cycle Assessment of Slurry Management Technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wesnæs, Marianne; Wenzel, Henrik; Petersen, Bjørn Molt

    This report contains the results of Life Cycle Assessments of two slurry management technologies - acidification and decentred incineration. The LCA foundation can be used by the contributing companies for evaluating the environmental sustainability of a specific technology from a holistic Life...... Cycle perspective. Through this the companies can evaluate the environmental benefits and disadvantages of introducing a specific technology for slurry management. From a societal perspective the results can contribute to a clarification of which slurry management technologies (or combination...

  8. Assessing the add value of ensemble forecast in a drought early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calmanti, Sandro; Bosi, Lorenzo; Fernandez, Jesus; De Felice, Matteo

    2015-04-01

    The EU-FP7 project EUPORIAS is developing a prototype climate service to enhance the existing food security drought early warning system in Ethiopia. The Livelihoods, Early Assessment and Protection (LEAP) system is the Government of Ethiopia's national food security early warning system, established with the support of WFP and the World Bank in 2008. LEAP was designed to increase the predictability and timeliness of response to drought-related food crises in Ethiopia. It combines early warning with contingency planning and contingency funding, to allow the government, WFP and other partners to provide early assistance in anticipation of an impending catastrophes. Currently, LEAP uses satellite based rainfall estimates to monitor drought conditions and to compute needs. The main aim of the prototype is to use seasonal hindcast data to assess the added value of using ensemble climate rainfall forecasts to estimate the cost of assistance of population hit by major droughts. We outline the decision making process that is informed by the prototype climate service, and we discuss the analysis of the expected and skill of the available rainfall forecast data over Ethiopia. One critical outcome of this analysis is the strong dependence of the expected skill on the observational estimate assumed as reference. A preliminary evaluation of the full prototype products (drought indices and needs estimated) using hindcasts data will also be presented.

  9. Assessing uncertainties in flood forecasts for decision making: prototype of an operational flood management system integrating ensemble predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Dietrich

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Ensemble forecasts aim at framing the uncertainties of the potential future development of the hydro-meteorological situation. A probabilistic evaluation can be used to communicate forecast uncertainty to decision makers. Here an operational system for ensemble based flood forecasting is presented, which combines forecasts from the European COSMO-LEPS, SRNWP-PEPS and COSMO-DE prediction systems. A multi-model lagged average super-ensemble is generated by recombining members from different runs of these meteorological forecast systems. A subset of the super-ensemble is selected based on a priori model weights, which are obtained from ensemble calibration. Flood forecasts are simulated by the conceptual rainfall-runoff-model ArcEGMO. Parameter uncertainty of the model is represented by a parameter ensemble, which is a priori generated from a comprehensive uncertainty analysis during model calibration. The use of a computationally efficient hydrological model within a flood management system allows us to compute the hydro-meteorological model chain for all members of the sub-ensemble. The model chain is not re-computed before new ensemble forecasts are available, but the probabilistic assessment of the output is updated when new information from deterministic short range forecasts or from assimilation of measured data becomes available. For hydraulic modelling, with the desired result of a probabilistic inundation map with high spatial resolution, a replacement model can help to overcome computational limitations. A prototype of the developed framework has been applied for a case study in the Mulde river basin. However these techniques, in particular the probabilistic assessment and the derivation of decision rules are still in their infancy. Further research is necessary and promising.

  10. Skill assessment of the coupled physical-biogeochemical operational Mediterranean Forecasting System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cossarini, Gianpiero; Clementi, Emanuela; Salon, Stefano; Grandi, Alessandro; Bolzon, Giorgio; Solidoro, Cosimo

    2016-04-01

    The Mediterranean Monitoring and Forecasting Centre (Med-MFC) is one of the regional production centres of the European Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS-Copernicus). Med-MFC operatively manages a suite of numerical model systems (3DVAR-NEMO-WW3 and 3DVAR-OGSTM-BFM) that provides gridded datasets of physical and biogeochemical variables for the Mediterranean marine environment with a horizontal resolution of about 6.5 km. At the present stage, the operational Med-MFC produces ten-day forecast: daily for physical parameters and bi-weekly for biogeochemical variables. The validation of the coupled model system and the estimate of the accuracy of model products are key issues to ensure reliable information to the users and the downstream services. Product quality activities at Med-MFC consist of two levels of validation and skill analysis procedures. Pre-operational qualification activities focus on testing the improvement of the quality of a new release of the model system and relays on past simulation and historical data. Then, near real time (NRT) validation activities aim at the routinely and on-line skill assessment of the model forecast and relays on the NRT available observations. Med-MFC validation framework uses both independent (i.e. Bio-Argo float data, in-situ mooring and vessel data of oxygen, nutrients and chlorophyll, moored buoys, tide-gauges and ADCP of temperature, salinity, sea level and velocity) and semi-independent data (i.e. data already used for assimilation, such as satellite chlorophyll, Satellite SLA and SST and in situ vertical profiles of temperature and salinity from XBT, Argo and Gliders) We give evidence that different variables (e.g. CMEMS-products) can be validated at different levels (i.e. at the forecast level or at the level of model consistency) and at different spatial and temporal scales. The fundamental physical parameters temperature, salinity and sea level are routinely validated on daily, weekly and quarterly base

  11. Assessment of GloseA4 seasonal forecasts for SADC and the global oceans

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Seasonal forecast skill over southern Africa may improve through the combination of forecasts. In the southern African region, however, only a small number of institutions have the capability to run global models operationally which can feed...

  12. Impact Assessment of Uncertainty Propagation of Ensemble NWP Rainfall to Flood Forecasting with Catchment Scale

    OpenAIRE

    Wansik Yu; Eiichi Nakakita; Sunmin Kim; Kosei Yamaguchi

    2016-01-01

    The common approach to quantifying the precipitation forecast uncertainty is ensemble simulations where a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model is run for a number of cases with slightly different initial conditions. In practice, the spread of ensemble members in terms of flood discharge is used as a measure of forecast uncertainty due to uncertain precipitation forecasts. This study presents the uncertainty propagation of rainfall forecast into hydrological response with catchment scale t...

  13. Civil Engineering Technology Needs Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oakland Community Coll., Farmington, MI. Office of Institutional Planning and Analysis.

    In 1991, a study was conducted by Oakland Community College (OCC) to evaluate the need for a proposed Civil Engineering Technology program. An initial examination of the literature focused on industry needs and the job market for civil engineering technicians. In order to gather information on local area employers' hiring practices and needs, a…

  14. Knowledge in health technology assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tjørnhøj-Thomsen, Tine; Hansen, Helle Ploug

    2011-01-01

    to generate knowledge and evidence about the patient aspects of a given technology. This raises questions about how knowledge is produced in HTA reports and what kind of knowledge is considered relevant. This article uses a Danish HTA on patient education from 2009 as empirical material for a critical...... examination and discussion of knowledge and knowledge production about the patient aspects of HTA....

  15. Wireless technology for ABC Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Margit; Kyng, Morten; Christensen, Erika Frischknecht;

      In medical emergency service (EMS) the ABC status (Airway-Breathing-Circulation) of victims is essential in the decision making process regarding prioritizing and treatment. Today's use of information technology does, however, not inform directly about "A" and "B". The parameters are evaluated ...

  16. Combining Reference Class Forecasting with Overconfidence Theory for Better Risk Assessment of Transport Infrastructure Investments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leleur, Steen; Salling, Kim Bang; Pilkauskiene, Inga

    2015-01-01

    possible reference pool of projects and second to apply overconfidence theory (OT) to interpret expert judgments (EJ) about costs and demand as relating to a specific project up for examination. By combining flexible use of RCF with EJ based on OT interpretation it is argued that the current adjustment......Assessing the risks of infrastructure investments has become a topic of growing importance. This is due to a sad record of implemented projects with cost overruns and demand shortfalls leading, in retrospect, to the finding that there is a need for better risk assessment of transport infrastructure...... investments. In the last decade progress has been made by dealing with this situation known as planners’ optimism bias. Especially attention can be drawn to the use of reference class forecasting that has led to adjustment factors that, when used on the estimates of costs and demand, lead to cost...

  17. The Use of Interactive Graphics Processing in Short-Range Terminal Weather Forecasting: An Initial Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-03-31

    ingest individual forecasts into a data file through the use of formatted interrogation/ response messages via the AlcIDAS ’ keyboard /alpha- numeric CRT...to 10 min of observation time. The AlcIDAS forecaster has many computer analyses to aid him that are not available to forecasters relying on

  18. Technologies Assessing Limb Bradykinesia in Parkinson's Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasan, Hasan; Athauda, Dilan S; Foltynie, Thomas; Noyce, Alastair J

    2017-01-01

    The MDS-UPDRS (Movement Disorders Society - Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale) is the most widely used scale for rating impairment in PD. Subscores measuring bradykinesia have low reliability that can be subject to rater variability. Novel technological tools can be used to overcome such issues. To systematically explore and describe the available technologies for measuring limb bradykinesia in PD that were published between 2006 and 2016. A systematic literature search using PubMed (MEDLINE), IEEE Xplore, Web of Science, Scopus and Engineering Village (Compendex and Inspec) databases was performed to identify relevant technologies published until 18 October 2016. 47 technologies assessing bradykinesia in PD were identified, 17 of which offered home and clinic-based assessment whilst 30 provided clinic-based assessment only. Of the eligible studies, 7 were validated in a PD patient population only, whilst 40 were tested in both PD and healthy control groups. 19 of the 47 technologies assessed bradykinesia only, whereas 28 assessed other parkinsonian features as well. 33 technologies have been described in additional PD-related studies, whereas 14 are not known to have been tested beyond the pilot phase. Technology based tools offer advantages including objective motor assessment and home monitoring of symptoms, and can be used to assess response to intervention in clinical trials or routine care. This review provides an up-to-date repository and synthesis of the current literature regarding technology used for assessing limb bradykinesia in PD. The review also discusses the current trends with regards to technology and discusses future directions in development.

  19. Carbon Capture: A Technology Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-10-21

    time. The absence of a significant market for the novel technologies put them at a further disadvantage . This is similar to the situation for CO2...the overall CCS process applied to a power plant or other industrial process. The CO2 produced from carbon in the fossil fuels or biomass feedstock...Air or Oxygen Fossil Fuels; Biomass USEFUL PRODUCTS (e.g., electricity, fuels, chemicals, hydrogen) CO2 CO2 Capture & Compress CO2 Transport CO2

  20. 光伏功率预测技术%An Overview of Photovoltaic Energy System Output Forecasting Technology

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    龚莺飞; 鲁宗相; 乔颖; 王强

    2016-01-01

    Forecast of photovoltaic energy system output is a crucial technology to improve the performance of photovoltaic energy stations,and plays a fundamental role in the secure and stable operation of power grid with high penetration of photovoltaic generation.Since photovoltaic energy system forecasting is still at very early stage,it is critical to understand its technical roadmap and key problems.This paper gives a comprehensive review of the basic technical principles and key problems in the photovoltaic energy forecasting.Firstly,the basic principle and methods of photovoltaic energy forecasting are introduced.Then the key technical points of ultra-short term and short term forecasting are summarized,specially focusing on the forecasting accuracy.Finally,the key issues of photovoltaic energy forecasting are summarized from the prospective of Chinese market.%光伏功率预测是提高光伏电站控制、调度性能,保障高比率光伏发电接入的电网安全稳定运行的基础性关键技术。国内光伏功率预测技术研究和工程应用尚处于起步阶段,理清其技术脉络和关键问题尤其迫切。文中对光伏功率预测基本技术原理和关键问题进行了全面综述,首先介绍其基本原理和预测模式,然后总结了超短期和短期预测的主要技术要点,并着重对提升预测精度的相关研究进行评述,最后结合中国光伏功率预测发展现状,提出了值得研究和关注的光伏功率预测关键问题。

  1. Assessing medical technologies in development; a new paradigm of medical technology assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hummel, J. Marjan; van Rossum, Wouter; Verkerke, Gijsbertus Jacob; Rakhorst, Gerhard

    2000-01-01

    Objective: Our study aims to provide a practical contribution to the field of medical technology assessment within a new paradigm. This paradigm indicates the need for more comprehensive technology assessments in the development stage of a new technology. - Method: We introduce a method, based on

  2. Assessing medical technologies in development - A new paradigm of medical technology assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hummel, MJM; van Rossum, W; Verkerke, GJ; Rakhorst, G

    2000-01-01

    Objective: Our study aims to provide a practical contribution to the field of medical technology assessment within a new paradigm. This paradigm indicates the need for more comprehensive technology assessments in the development stage of a new technology. Method: We introduce a method, based on Saat

  3. Assessing reference evapotranspiration at regional scale based on remote sensing, weather forecast and GIS tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramírez-Cuesta, J. M.; Cruz-Blanco, M.; Santos, C.; Lorite, I. J.

    2017-03-01

    Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is a key component in efficient water management, especially in arid and semi-arid environments. However, accurate ETo assessment at the regional scale is complicated by the limited number of weather stations and the strict requirements in terms of their location and surrounding physical conditions for the collection of valid weather data. In an attempt to overcome this limitation, new approaches based on the use of remote sensing techniques and weather forecast tools have been proposed. Use of the Land Surface Analysis Satellite Application Facility (LSA SAF) tool and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) have allowed the design and development of innovative approaches for ETo assessment, which are especially useful for areas lacking available weather data from weather stations. Thus, by identifying the best-performing interpolation approaches (such as the Thin Plate Splines, TPS) and by developing new approaches (such as the use of data from the most similar weather station, TS, or spatially distributed correction factors, CITS), errors as low as 1.1% were achieved for ETo assessment. Spatial and temporal analyses reveal that the generated errors were smaller during spring and summer as well as in homogenous topographic areas. The proposed approaches not only enabled accurate calculations of seasonal and daily ETo values, but also contributed to the development of a useful methodology for evaluating the optimum number of weather stations to be integrated into a weather station network and the appropriateness of their locations. In addition to ETo, other variables included in weather forecast datasets (such as temperature or rainfall) could be evaluated using the same innovative methodology proposed in this study.

  4. Automatization of Student Assessment Using Multimedia Technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taniar, David; Rahayu, Wenny

    Most use of multimedia technology in teaching and learning to date has emphasized the teaching aspect only. An application of multimedia in examinations has been neglected. This paper addresses how multimedia technology can be applied to the automatization of assessment, by proposing a prototype of a multimedia question bank, which is able to…

  5. On Quality Assessment of Learning Technology Specifications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, José; Berlanga, Adriana; Koper, Rob

    2012-01-01

    Janssen, J., Berlanga, A. J., & Koper, R. (2012). On Quality Assessment of Learning Technology Specifications. In J. C. Ramalho, A. Simões, & R. Queirós (Eds.). Innovations in XML Applications and Metadata Management: Advancing Technologies (pp. 78-95). Hershey, PA, USA: IGI Global. Below file

  6. A Suite of Tools for Technology Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-09-01

    Saden, Povinelli & Rosen, 1989). • This was a significant change in emphasis on the part of NASA, where technology had previously viewed as merely...Cost Analysis Symposium, April 13, 2005. A Suite of Tools for Technology Assessment 24 Bibliography - continued: • Sadin, Stanley T.; Povinelli

  7. The internationalization of health technology assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menon, D; Marshall, D

    1996-01-01

    Health technology assessment as a formalized set of activities has a relatively short history. At its current stage of development, it is clear that it has global dimensions and impact. In this paper we review the history of health technology assessment, its development as a form of health services research, and its "institutionalization." We then identify the reasons for its internationalization, review current international initiatives, and propose actions to be taken to improve cooperation among countries.

  8. Technology assessment of solar energy systems. Scenario development and methodology. Volume II

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schiffman, Y.M.

    1981-07-01

    Included are a general overview of the Technology Assessment of Solar Energy systems (TASE) project and a description of the study approach, the development of the TASE scenarios, energy and environmental assumptions, and assumptions and forecasts of the FOSSIL2 National Energy Model upon which the TASE scenarios were based. The Strategic Environmental Assessment System (SEAS) model was used to generate the analytical data base for TASE. Improvements made to SEAS to allow it to model solar and biomass energy technologies are also described.

  9. 基于专利分析的技术预测概念模型%Conceptual Model of Technology Forecast Based on Patent Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张韵君; 柳飞红

    2014-01-01

    国内外研究者对技术预测给予了不同的阐释。专利分析作为技术预测的一种有效工具,可以为技术创新提供有力的决策支持。针对特定技术领域的预测,是基于“专利三性”隐含的技术发展方向、技术发展水平和技术发展潜力的特征所作出的判断。因此,可以建立一个基于专利分析的技术预测概念模型。概念模型在纵向层次上分为总预测层、预测综合层、预测分析层和预测信息层。在此基础上,选择和运用相应的专利分析指标和方法,形成一个技术预测的专利分析方法框架,以指导实际的技术预测活动。技术预测的效用可以用技术的发展方向、发展水平和发展潜力这三个变量予以描述。但专利分析也存在局限性,需要与其它方法配合使用。%There are different definitions for technology forecast domestically and abroad. Being an effective tool for technology forecast, patent analysis is very helpful to technological innovation decision-making. Because the forecast in specific technology fields is based on features of technology development direction, level and potential implicated in the “three natures of patent”, so a conceptual model of technology forecast can be built on the basis of patent analysis. The proposed model consists four layers of overall forecast, forecast con-solidated, predictive analysis and forecast information from a longitudinal level. Based on this, corresponding indicators and methods of patent analysis can be chosen and used to build a patent analysis frame for technology forecast to guide the actual activities of technology forecast. The effectiveness of technology forecast can be described with the three variables of development direction, level and potential of technology. And it is suggested that other methods be used together with patent analysis because of its limitations.

  10. North Florida Dairy Farmer Perceptions Toward the Use of Seasonal Climate Forecast Technology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cabrera, V.E.; Breuer, N.E. [Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, Gainesville, 256 Frazier Rogers Hall, PO Box 110570, FL 32611, Florida (United States); Hildebrand, P.E. [Food and Resource Economic Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, Gainesville, 1172 McCarty Hall, PO Box 110240, 32611-0240, Florida (United States)

    2006-10-15

    Evidence of increasing nitrogen levels in the Suwannee River Basin in North Florida demands a collaborative effort to find creative ways to reduce N pollution. This study explores the perspectives, perceptions, and attitudes of dairy farmers regarding adoption of climate forecasts as a potential way to mitigate the problem. These farmers are heavily scrutinized because of their nitrogen emissions. By contrasting scientists' pre-conceived attitudes about the usefulness of ENSO-based (El Nino/Southern Oscillation) forecasts with dairy farmers' perceptions, gathered in a participatory and consensual manner, valuable lessons were learned. A deeper understanding of the day to day realities of dairy farming systems help researchers pinpoint management adaptations that are not only useful, but feasible, in light of improved seasonal climate forecasts. Furthermore, dairy farmers' perceptions regarding the use of seasonal climate information to mitigate the nitrate problem are critical for designing future dairy systems.

  11. Health technology assessment. Evaluation of biomedical innovative technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turchetti, Giuseppe; Spadoni, Enza; Geisler, Eliezer Elie

    2010-01-01

    This article describes health technology assessment (HTA) as an evaluation tool that applies systematic methods of inquiry to the generation and use of health technologies and new products. The focus of this article is on the contributions of HTA to the management of the new product development effort in the biomedical organization. Critical success factors (CSFs) are listed, and their role in assessing success is defined and explained. One of the conclusions of this article is that HTA is a powerful tool for managers in the biomedical sector, allowing them to better manage their innovation effort in their continuing struggle for competitiveness and survival.

  12. Forecast of drifter trajectories using a Rapid Environmental Assessment based on CTD observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorgente, R.; Tedesco, C.; Pessini, F.; De Dominicis, M.; Gerin, R.; Olita, A.; Fazioli, L.; Di Maio, A.; Ribotti, A.

    2016-11-01

    A high resolution submesoscale resolving ocean model was implemented in a limited area north of Island of Elba where a maritime exercise, named Serious Game 1 (SG1), took place on May 2014 in the framework of the project MEDESS-4MS (Mediterranean Decision Support System for Marine Safety). During the exercise, CTD data have been collected responding to the necessity of a Rapid Environmental Assessment, i.e. to a rapid evaluation of the marine conditions able to provide sensible information for initialisation of modelling tools, in the scenario of possible maritime accidents. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the impact of such mesoscale-resolving CTD observations on short-term forecasts of the surface currents, within the framework of possible oil-spill related emergencies. For this reason, modelling outputs were compared with Lagrangian observations at sea: the high resolution modelled currents, together with the ones of the coarser sub-regional model WMED, are used to force the MEDSLIK-II oil-spill model to simulate drifter trajectories. Both ocean models have been assessed by comparing the prognostic scalar and vector fields as an independent CTD data set and with real drifter trajectories acquired during SG1. The diagnosed and prognosed circulation reveals that the area was characterised by water masses of Atlantic origin influenced by small mesoscale cyclonic and anti-cyclonic eddies, which govern the spatial and temporal evolution of the drifter trajectories and of the water masses distribution. The assimilation of CTD data into the initial conditions of the high resolution model highly improves the accuracy of the short-term forecast in terms of location and structure of the thermocline and positively influence the ability of the model in reproducing the observed paths of the surface drifters.

  13. Too many cooks batter technology assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, M

    1991-12-02

    The bustling activity and interest in technology assessment obscures two growing problems. More than 70 groups, sporting a variety of agendas, are involved in assessing new devices, drugs and procedures; variations in the information they seek or the methods they use sometimes produce findings that conflict or can't be compared.

  14. An environmental assessment system for environmental technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clavreul, Julie; Baumeister, Hubert; Christensen, Thomas Højlund

    2014-01-01

    A new model for the environmental assessment of environmental technologies, EASETECH, has been developed. The primary aim of EASETECH is to perform life-cycle assessment (LCA) of complex systems handling heterogeneous material flows. The objectives of this paper are to describe the EASETECH...

  15. An environmental assessment system for environmental technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clavreul, Julie; Baumeister, Hubert; Christensen, Thomas Højlund;

    2014-01-01

    A new model for the environmental assessment of environmental technologies, EASETECH, has been developed. The primary aim of EASETECH is to perform life-cycle assessment (LCA) of complex systems handling heterogeneous material flows. The objectives of this paper are to describe the EASETECH...

  16. Assessment and Learning Technologies: An Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrell, Treasa; Rushby, Nick

    2016-01-01

    Assessment pervades the learning process. This paper provides an overview of the application of technology to support and enhance diagnostic, formative and summative assessment. The focus is on examining how it can replace what already exists, improve the functionality, catalyse a redesign of the process and in some circumstances, make possible…

  17. Spent Nuclear Fuel Alternative Technology Risk Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perella, V.F.

    1999-11-29

    A Research Reactor Spent Nuclear Fuel Task Team (RRTT) was chartered by the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Spent Fuel Management with the responsibility to recommend a course of action leading to a final technology selection for the interim management and ultimate disposition of the foreign and domestic aluminum-based research reactor spent nuclear fuel (SNF) under DOE''s jurisdiction. The RRTT evaluated eleven potential SNF management technologies and recommended that two technologies, direct co-disposal and an isotopic dilution alternative, either press and dilute or melt and dilute, be developed in parallel. Based upon that recommendation, the Westinghouse Savannah River Company (WSRC) organized the SNF Alternative Technology Program to further develop the direct co-disposal and melt and dilute technologies and provide a WSRC recommendation to DOE for a preferred SNF alternative management technology. A technology risk assessment was conducted as a first step in this recommendation process to determine if either, or both, of the technologies posed significant risks that would make them unsuitable for further development. This report provides the results of that technology risk assessment.

  18. Forecasting freight flows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyk-Jensen, Stéphanie

    2011-01-01

    Trade patterns and transport markets are changing as a result of the growth and globalization of international trade, and forecasting future freight flow has to rely on trade forecasts. Forecasting freight flows is critical for matching infrastructure supply to demand and for assessing investment...

  19. Assessment of the potential forecasting skill of a global hydrological model in reproducing the occurrence of monthly flow extremes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Candogan Yossef, N.A.N.N.; Beek, L.P.H. van; Kwadijk, J.C.J.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2012-01-01

    As an initial step in assessing the prospect of using global hydrological models (GHMs) for hydrological forecasting, this study investigates the skill of the GHM PCRGLOBWB in reproducing the occurrence of past extremes in monthly discharge on a global scale. Global terrestrial hydrology from 1958

  20. Health technology assessment and thyroid surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucchini, R; Sanguinetti, A; Monacelli, M; Triola, R; Avenia, S; Conti, C; Santoprete, S; Avenia, N

    2013-01-01

    The growth of technological innovation, the request for assistance, the rising patient's expectations and the interest of the industry have led to a rise in the cost of health care systems. In this context the role of the National Health System is not to delay the development or adoption of new technologies, but rather to drive the development selecting priorities and promoting its use. Health Technology Assessment (HTA) is a multidisciplinary and multidimensional approach for analyzing the medical-clinical, social, organizational, economic, ethical and legal implications of a technology (devices, drugs, procedures) through the assessment of multiple parameters such as effectiveness, safety, costs of the social and organizational impact. A health technology assessment is a comprehensive, systematic evaluation of the prerequisites for estimating the consequences of using health technology. Main characteristic of HTA is that the problem is tackled using an approach focused on four main elements: - technology; - patient; - organization; - economy. The authors have applied the HTA method for the analysis of the ultrasonic focus dissector on thyroid surgery. They compared the cost of the surgical procedure using the ultrasonic dissector and without it in a case study of 440 patients who underwent thyroidectomy.

  1. Health Technology Assessment and patient safety

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Mulcahy

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available

    Health Technology Assessment (HTA is a process used to evaluate the clinical effectiveness and costeffectiveness of health technologies by a systematic review of clinical, economic, and utilization research.

    Despite widespread investment in patient safety technologies in the U.K., U.S., and elsewhere, little HTA has been done to establish the clinical or cost-effectiveness of these technologies. The HTA and patient safety literature suggests there are four categories of patient safety HTA, including HTA for existing safety technologies, underutilized safety technologies, emerging safety technologies, as well as safety aspects of technologies with a non-safety primary purpose.

    Recent HTA and other research, including a 2002 evidencebased evaluation of patient safety technologies from the U.S. Agency for Health Research and Quality, provide an important foundation for a more comprehensive approach to patient safety HTA. However, HTA programs must address prioritization, methodology, and dissemination challenges introduced by patient safety technologies before significant progress can Te made.

  2. THE ASSESSMENT OF OPPORTUNITIES AND THREATS FOR CHANGES OF TECHNOLOGIES AGGREGATE THROUGH ORDER PARAMETERS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T.A. Nelyubina

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available In this article, author considers a class of technologies aggregates, which can be present as complex socio-economic systems. The order parameters are chosen as instrument of reflect the system integrity of this technologies aggregates. The analysis of aggregates through order parameters permit: to diagnose the state of the system and its life phase, understand the compatibility extent between the current state of system and the assumed modifications in it, understand the nature of attendant risks. It also allows to compare the systems, track the dynamics of order parameters and forecast the trends of the future changes. Author formulates number and definitions of order parameters for this class of technologies aggregates; proposes the assessment method of condition of order parameters for technologies aggregate of region; makes express-assessment of preparedness level of technologies aggregates of some regions to innovation changes.

  3. Structural equation modelling based data fusion for technology forecasting: A generic framework

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Staphorst, L

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available makers. Technology indicators are those sources of technology related data that allow for the direct characterisation and evaluation of technologies over their whole life cycle. Future-oriented Technology Analysis (FTA), which is a forward...

  4. Development of distributed topographical forecasting model for wind resource assessment using artificial neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Narayana, P.B. [Green Life Energy Solutions LLP, Secunderabad (India); Rao, S.S. [National Institute of Technology. Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, Warangal (India); Reddy, K.H. [JNT Univ.. Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, Anantapur (India)

    2012-07-01

    Economics of wind power projects largely depend on the availability of wind power density. Wind resource assessment is a study estimating wind speeds and wind power densities in the region under consideration. The accuracy and reliability of data sets comprising of wind speeds and wind power densities at different heights per topographic region characterized by elevation or mean sea level, is important for wind power projects. Indian Wind Resource Assessment program conducted in 80's consisted of wind data measured by monitoring stations at different topographies in order to measure wind power density values at 25 and 50 meters above the ground level. In this paper, an attempt has been made to assess wind resource at a given location using artificial neural networks. Existing wind resource data has been used to train the neural networks. Location topography (characterized by longitude, latitude and mean sea level), air density, mean annual wind speed (MAWS) are used as inputs to the neural network. Mean annual wind power density (MAWPD) in watt/m{sup 2} is predicted for a new topographic location. Simple back propagation based neural network has been found to be sufficient for predicting these values with suitable accuracy. This model is closely linked to the problem of wind energy forecasting considering the variations of specific atmospheric variables with time horizons. This model will help the wind farm developers to have an initial estimation of the wind energy potential at a particular topography. (Author)

  5. Independent Assessment of Technology Characterizations to Support the Biomass Program Annual State-of-Technology Assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yeh, B.

    2011-03-01

    This report discusses an investigation that addressed two thermochemical conversion pathways for the production of liquid fuels and addressed the steps to the process, the technology providers, a method for determining the state of technology and a tool to continuously assess the state of technology. This report summarizes the findings of the investigation as well as recommendations for improvements for future studies.

  6. Status and assessment of photovoltaic technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kazmerski, L. L.

    The history and status of the current photovoltaic technologies are reviewed and evaluated. The problems and strengths of single-crystal, polycrystalline, and amorphous technologies are discussed, compared, and assessed. Single-junction and multiple-junction or tandem cell configurations are evaluated for performance, processing, and engineering criteria. Some emphasis is placed on the emerging thin film options for low cost terrestrial applications. The basic photovoltaic system building block, the solar cell, is discussed along with important module developments and problems. Future technology and research directions are provided for materials, cells, and modules.

  7. Status and assessment of photovoltaic technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kazmerski, L.L. (Solar Energy Research Inst., Golden, CO (USA))

    1989-01-01

    The history and status of the current photovoltaic technologies are reviewed and evaluated. The problems and strengths of single-crystal, polycrystalline, and amorphous technologies are discussed, compared and assessed. Single-junction and multiple-junction or tandem cell configurations are evaluated for performance, processing, and engineering criteria. Some emphasis is placed on the emerging thin film options for low cost terrestrial applications. Discussions centre around the basic photovoltaic system building block, the solar cell, but important module developments and problems are cited. Future technology and research directions are provided for materials, cells, and modules. (author).

  8. Inferential, non-parametric statistics to assess the quality of probabilistic forecast systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maia, A.H.N.; Meinke, H.B.; Lennox, S.; Stone, R.C.

    2007-01-01

    Many statistical forecast systems are available to interested users. To be useful for decision making, these systems must be based on evidence of underlying mechanisms. Once causal connections between the mechanism and its statistical manifestation have been firmly established, the forecasts must al

  9. Assessment of GloSea4 seasonal forecasts for SADC and the global oceans

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this research is to demonstrate the skill of the UK Met Office Hadley Centre’s coupled global seasonal forecasting system, GloSea4, as a seasonal forecasting tool for the Southern African Development Community (SADC...

  10. Inferential, non-parametric statistics to assess the quality of probabilistic forecast systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maia, A.H.N.; Meinke, H.B.; Lennox, S.; Stone, R.C.

    2007-01-01

    Many statistical forecast systems are available to interested users. To be useful for decision making, these systems must be based on evidence of underlying mechanisms. Once causal connections between the mechanism and its statistical manifestation have been firmly established, the forecasts must al

  11. Assessing the potential skill of seasonal streamflow forecasting for the River Rhine and the Upper Danube Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, B.; Meissner, D.; Gerl, N.; Hemri, S.; Gneiting, T. J.

    2013-12-01

    Reliable seasonal streamflow forecasts could be a valuable tool for the medium-term to long-term planning of many users of the water sector. Especially for the optimization of hydropower generation and the water-related logistic transportation chain the knowledge about the possible future evolution of streamflows within the next 1 to 6 months would be an important additional information in the decision process. Although there is a strong need for seasonal forecast products there is no operational forecasting system available for the large rivers in Germany. One of the main reasons is that the long-term meteorological predictability, especially for precipitation, is quite limited over Central Europe. Potential gain of predictability in the hydrological system that makes us believe that skillful seasonal streamflow forecasts in Central Europe are not out of reach is the hydrological memory and the delayed and damped system response of river basins. Natural (like snow pack, groundwater, soil moisture) as well as man-made reservoirs and dams have a large influence on the future runoff. In hydrological forecasting this memory is represented by the initial conditions of the hydrological model. In addition the streamflow at a gauge is an integrated system response with the meteorological variables as system input. If there is at least some valuable information in the numeric seasonal weather forecasts about the future evolution of precipitation and temperature as the main drivers of the hydrological processes, it could be possibly assessed through spatial (considering larger catchments) and temporal aggregation (e.g. monthly mean runoff values instead of daily values). In this contribution the potential skill of seasonal streamflow forecasting is evaluated for River Rhine and the Upper Danube Basin (up to the gauge Vienna). Different spatial and temporal scales are considered as well as different meteorological forcings. Two different hydrological models are applied in

  12. Evidence review of technology and dietary assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, JoAnn D; Littlefield, Laurel A; Estep, Gary; Martin, Hope; Rogers, Toby J; Boswell, Carol; Shriver, Brent J; Roman-Shriver, Carmen R

    2010-12-01

    Diets high in fruit and vegetable consumption are associated with a decrease in chronic diseases. Dietary factors are linked to 4 of the 10 leading noncommunicable causes of death: cardiovascular disease, some cancers, stroke, and type 2 diabetes. Accurately measuring dietary patterns has many challenges. Dietary intake measurement has traditionally relied on self-report instruments such as 24-hour recall, food record, and food frequency questionnaires to record consumption history. These methods have inherent limitations in detecting small but important changes in fruit and vegetable consumption patterns. Promising advances in technology have made more sophisticated techniques for recording dietary intake possible. Computers and Web-based programs, handheld personal digital assistants with cameras and telephone cards, smart phones, cameras, and video recorders options may reduce the burden of recording what has been consumed. Furthermore, technology-based methods of dietary assessment may provide a higher degree of reliability and validity in visually determining fruit and vegetable consumption, and additional study is warranted. The purpose of this article is to present a review of the evidence on the effectiveness of technology-based methods for dietary assessment, which included fruit and vegetable consumption. One hundred and eighty-seven articles published between 1998 and 2008 were initially identified. Fifteen met the study inclusion criteria and were evaluated by an interdisciplinary team using the Stetler Strength of Evidence Scale. Six technology-based methods for dietary assessment were identified. Findings from validity and reliability testing of technology-based methods are encouraging and need replication. Clinically important features offered through technology may reduce reporting burden and offer behavioral feedback to users. Methodologically sound, empirical research into using technology-based application for dietary assessment in a variety of

  13. A Health Technology Assessment: laparoscopy versus colpoceliotomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damonti, A; Ferrario, L; Morelli, P; Mussi, M; Patregnani, C; Garagiola, E; Foglia, E; Pagani, R; Carminati, R; Porazzi, E

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this paper is the comparison between two different technologies used for the removal of a uterine myoma, a frequent benign tumor: the standard technology currently used, laparoscopy, and an innovative one, colpoceliotomy. It was considered relevant to evaluate the real and the potential effects of the two technologies implementation and, in addition, the consequences that the introduction or exclusion of the innovative technology would have for both the National Health System (NHS) and the entire community. The comparison between these two different technologies, the standard and the innovative one, was conducted using a Health Technology Assessment (HTA). In particular, in order to analyse their differences, a multi-dimensional approach was considered: effectiveness, costs and budget impact analysis data were collected, applying different instruments, such as the Activity Based Costing methodology (ABC), the Cost-Effectiveness Analysis (CEA) and the Budget Impact Analysis (BIA). Organisational, equity and social impact were also evaluated. The results showed that the introduction of colpoceliotomy would provide significant economic savings to the Regional and National Health Service; in particular, a saving of € 453.27 for each surgical procedure. The introduction of the innovative technology, colpoceliotomy, could be considered a valuable tool; one offering many advantages related to less invasiveness and a shorter surgical procedure than the standard technology currently used (laparoscopy).

  14. Sustainability assessment of advanced wastewater treatment technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Høibye, Linda; Clauson-Kaas, Jes; Wenzel, Henrik

    2007-01-01

    As a consequence of the EU Water Framwork Directive, more focus is now on discharges of hazardous substances from wastewater treatment plants and sewers. Thus, many municipalities in Denmark may have to adopt to future advenced treatment technologies. This paper describes a holistic assessment...... of sustainability, sand filtration is the most advantageous method based on the technical and environmental assessment due to the low energy consumption and high efficiency with regard to the removal of heavy metals....

  15. Benchmarking computational fluid dynamics models of lava flow simulation for hazard assessment, forecasting, and risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietterich, Hannah; Lev, Einat; Chen, Jiangzhi; Richardson, Jacob A.; Cashman, Katharine V.

    2017-01-01

    Numerical simulations of lava flow emplacement are valuable for assessing lava flow hazards, forecasting active flows, designing flow mitigation measures, interpreting past eruptions, and understanding the controls on lava flow behavior. Existing lava flow models vary in simplifying assumptions, physics, dimensionality, and the degree to which they have been validated against analytical solutions, experiments, and natural observations. In order to assess existing models and guide the development of new codes, we conduct a benchmarking study of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models for lava flow emplacement, including VolcFlow, OpenFOAM, FLOW-3D, COMSOL, and MOLASSES. We model viscous, cooling, and solidifying flows over horizontal planes, sloping surfaces, and into topographic obstacles. We compare model results to physical observations made during well-controlled analogue and molten basalt experiments, and to analytical theory when available. Overall, the models accurately simulate viscous flow with some variability in flow thickness where flows intersect obstacles. OpenFOAM, COMSOL, and FLOW-3D can each reproduce experimental measurements of cooling viscous flows, and OpenFOAM and FLOW-3D simulations with temperature-dependent rheology match results from molten basalt experiments. We assess the goodness-of-fit of the simulation results and the computational cost. Our results guide the selection of numerical simulation codes for different applications, including inferring emplacement conditions of past lava flows, modeling the temporal evolution of ongoing flows during eruption, and probabilistic assessment of lava flow hazard prior to eruption. Finally, we outline potential experiments and desired key observational data from future flows that would extend existing benchmarking data sets.

  16. Adaptive Opportunistic Cooperative Control Mechanism Based on Combination Forecasting and Multilevel Sensing Technology of Sensors for Mobile Internet of Things

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yong Jin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In mobile Internet of Things, there are many challenges, including sensing technology of sensors, how and when to join cooperative transmission, and how to select the cooperative sensors. To address these problems, we studied the combination forecasting based on the multilevel sensing technology of sensors, building upon which we proposed the adaptive opportunistic cooperative control mechanism based on the threshold values such as activity probability, distance, transmitting power, and number of relay sensors, in consideration of signal to noise ratio and outage probability. More importantly, the relay sensors would do self-test real time in order to judge whether to join the cooperative transmission, for maintaining the optimal cooperative transmission state with high performance. The mathematical analyses results show that the proposed adaptive opportunistic cooperative control approach could perform better in terms of throughput ratio, packet error rate and delay, and energy efficiency, compared with the direct transmission and opportunistic cooperative approaches.

  17. Development of web-based services for a novel ensemble flood forecasting and risk assessment system

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Y.; Manful, D. Y.; Cloke, H. L.; Wetterhall, F.; Li, Z.; Bao, H.; Pappenberger, F.; Wesner, S.; Schubert, L.; Yang, L.; Hu, Y.

    2009-12-01

    Flooding is a wide spread and devastating natural disaster worldwide. Floods that took place in the last decade in China were ranked the worst amongst recorded floods worldwide in terms of the number of human fatalities and economic losses (Munich Re-Insurance). Rapid economic development and population expansion into low lying flood plains has worsened the situation. Current conventional flood prediction systems in China are neither suited to the perceptible climate variability nor the rapid pace of urbanization sweeping the country. Flood prediction, from short-term (a few hours) to medium-term (a few days), needs to be revisited and adapted to changing socio-economic and hydro-climatic realities. The latest technology requires implementation of multiple numerical weather prediction systems. The availability of twelve global ensemble weather prediction systems through the ‘THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble’ (TIGGE) offers a good opportunity for an effective state-of-the-art early forecasting system. A prototype of a Novel Flood Early Warning System (NEWS) using the TIGGE database is tested in the Huai River basin in east-central China. It is the first early flood warning system in China that uses the massive TIGGE database cascaded with river catchment models, the Xinanjiang hydrologic model and a 1-D hydraulic model, to predict river discharge and flood inundation. The NEWS algorithm is also designed to provide web-based services to a broad spectrum of end-users. The latter presents challenges as both databases and proprietary codes reside in different locations and converge at dissimilar times. NEWS will thus make use of a ready-to-run grid system that makes distributed computing and data resources available in a seamless and secure way. An ability to run or function on different operating systems and provide an interface or front that is accessible to broad spectrum of end-users is additional requirement. The aim is to achieve robust

  18. Development of web-based services for an ensemble flood forecasting and risk assessment system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yaw Manful, Desmond; He, Yi; Cloke, Hannah; Pappenberger, Florian; Li, Zhijia; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Huang, Yingchun; Hu, Yuzhong

    2010-05-01

    Flooding is a wide spread and devastating natural disaster worldwide. Floods that took place in the last decade in China were ranked the worst amongst recorded floods worldwide in terms of the number of human fatalities and economic losses (Munich Re-Insurance). Rapid economic development and population expansion into low lying flood plains has worsened the situation. Current conventional flood prediction systems in China are neither suited to the perceptible climate variability nor the rapid pace of urbanization sweeping the country. Flood prediction, from short-term (a few hours) to medium-term (a few days), needs to be revisited and adapted to changing socio-economic and hydro-climatic realities. The latest technology requires implementation of multiple numerical weather prediction systems. The availability of twelve global ensemble weather prediction systems through the ‘THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble' (TIGGE) offers a good opportunity for an effective state-of-the-art early forecasting system. A prototype of a Novel Flood Early Warning System (NEWS) using the TIGGE database is tested in the Huai River basin in east-central China. It is the first early flood warning system in China that uses the massive TIGGE database cascaded with river catchment models, the Xinanjiang hydrologic model and a 1-D hydraulic model, to predict river discharge and flood inundation. The NEWS algorithm is also designed to provide web-based services to a broad spectrum of end-users. The latter presents challenges as both databases and proprietary codes reside in different locations and converge at dissimilar times. NEWS will thus make use of a ready-to-run grid system that makes distributed computing and data resources available in a seamless and secure way. An ability to run or function on different operating systems and provide an interface or front that is accessible to broad spectrum of end-users is additional requirement. The aim is to achieve robust interoperability

  19. Broadband Satellite Technologies and Markets Assessed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallett, Thomas M.

    1999-01-01

    The current usage of broadband (data rate greater than 64 kilobits per second (kbs)) for multimedia network computer applications is increasing, and the need for network communications technologies and systems to support this use is also growing. Satellite technology will likely be an important part of the National Information Infrastructure (NII) and the Global Information Infrastructure (GII) in the next decade. Several candidate communications technologies that may be used to carry a portion of the increased data traffic have been reviewed, and estimates of the future demand for satellite capacity have been made. A study was conducted by the NASA Lewis Research Center to assess the satellite addressable markets for broadband applications. This study effort included four specific milestones: (1) assess the changing nature of broadband applications and their usage, (2) assess broadband satellite and terrestrial technologies, (3) estimate the size of the global satellite addressable market from 2000 to 2010, and (4) identify how the impact of future technology developments could increase the utility of satellite-based transport to serve this market.

  20. Using Enabling Technologies to Facilitate the Comparison of Satellite Observations with the Model Forecasts for Hurricane Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, P.; Knosp, B.; Hristova-Veleva, S. M.; Niamsuwan, N.; Johnson, M. P.; Shen, T. P. J.; Tanelli, S.; Turk, J.; Vu, Q. A.

    2014-12-01

    Due to their complexity and volume, the satellite data are underutilized in today's hurricane research and operations. To better utilize these data, we developed the JPL Tropical Cyclone Information System (TCIS) - an Interactive Data Portal providing fusion between Near-Real-Time satellite observations and model forecasts to facilitate model evaluation and improvement. We have collected satellite observations and model forecasts in the Atlantic Basin and the East Pacific for the hurricane seasons since 2010 and supported the NASA Airborne Campaigns for Hurricane Study such as the Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) in 2010 and the Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) from 2012 to 2014. To enable the direct inter-comparisons of the satellite observations and the model forecasts, the TCIS was integrated with the NASA Earth Observing System Simulator Suite (NEOS3) to produce synthetic observations (e.g. simulated passive microwave brightness temperatures) from a number of operational hurricane forecast models (HWRF and GFS). An automated process was developed to trigger NEOS3 simulations via web services given the location and time of satellite observations, monitor the progress of the NEOS3 simulations, display the synthetic observation and ingest them into the TCIS database when they are done. In addition, three analysis tools, the joint PDF analysis of the brightness temperatures, ARCHER for finding the storm-center and the storm organization and the Wave Number Analysis tool for storm asymmetry and morphology analysis were integrated into TCIS to provide statistical and structural analysis on both observed and synthetic data. Interactive tools were built in the TCIS visualization system to allow the spatial and temporal selections of the datasets, the invocation of the tools with user specified parameters, and the display and the delivery of the results. In this presentation, we will describe the key enabling technologies behind the design of

  1. Interactive Technology Assessment in the Real World

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marris, Claire; Joly, Pierre-Benoit; Rip, Arie

    2008-01-01

    Participatory Technology Assessment (pTA) initiatives have usually been analyzed as if they existed in a social and political vacuum. This article analyzes the linkages that occur, in both directions, between the microcosm set up by a pTA exercise and the real world outside. This dual-dynamics persp

  2. Community Needs Assessment Office Administration & Technology (OAT).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pezzoli, J. A.; Lum, Ku'uipo; Meyer, Diane

    The purpose of this survey was to obtain from employers the requisite skills and potential employment demand for office workers on Maui. Of particular interest was: (1) the assessment of various clerical skills and computer software in its relevance to the Office Administration & Technology (OAT) curriculum at Maui Community College; and (2)…

  3. Teacher Learning of Technology Enhanced Formative Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feldman, Allan; Capobianco, Brenda M.

    2008-01-01

    This study examined the integration of technology enhanced formative assessment (FA) into teachers' practice. Participants were high school physics teachers interested in improving their use of a classroom response system (CRS) to promote FA. Data were collected using interviews, direct classroom observations, and collaborative discussions. The…

  4. Interactive technology assessment and wide reflective equilibrium.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reuzel, R.P.B.; Wilt, G.J. van der; Have, H.A.M.J. ten; Vries Robbé, P.F. de

    2001-01-01

    Interactive technology assessment (iTA) provides an answer to the ethical problem of normative bias in evaluation research. This normative bias develops when relevant perspectives on the evaluand (the thing being evaluated) are neglected. In iTA this bias is overcome by incorporating different persp

  5. An assessment of information communication technology content ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    An assessment of information communication technology content, context and process dimensions in public health facilities in Machakos and Nairobi ... to lack of support from hospital top management team (χ 9.44, d.f.=4 and p=0.005).

  6. Technology and the issues facing nursing assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ansell, Helen; Meyer, Alannah; Thompson, Shona

    This article describes an investigation into the use of technology and the issues nurses face undertaking nursing assessment. It reports qualitative, descriptive research involving interviews with ten ward nurses from three hospitals in New Zealand. Thematic analysis of the data revealed three key issues: the impact of technology, the influence of early warning systems and nurse autonomy. Results show how clinical decision making around nursing assessment is influenced by technology and the Early Warning Score. These clinical decisions may not always be informed by critical thinking in complex healthcare environments. The article concludes that nurse autonomy, while supported and endorsed in theory, is frequently in conflict with hospital risk-management policies and the use of prescriptive algorithms.

  7. Biomass Gasification Technology Assessment: Consolidated Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Worley, M.; Yale, J.

    2012-11-01

    Harris Group Inc. (HGI) was commissioned by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory to assess gasification and tar reforming technologies. Specifically, the assessments focused on gasification and tar reforming technologies that are capable of producing a syngas suitable for further treatment and conversion to liquid fuels. HGI gathered sufficient information to analyze three gasification and tar reforming systems. This report summarizes the equipment, general arrangement of the equipment, operating characteristics, and operating severity for each technology. The order of magnitude capital cost estimates are supported by a basis-of-estimate write-up, which is also included in this report. The report also includes Microsoft Excel workbook models, which can be used to design and price the systems. The models can be used to analyze various operating capacities and pressures. Each model produces a material balance, equipment list, capital cost estimate, equipment drawings and preliminary general arrangement drawings. Example outputs of each model are included in the Appendices.

  8. Assessment of Sensor Technologies for Advanced Reactors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Korsah, Kofi [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Ramuhalli, Pradeep [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Vlim, R. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Kisner, Roger A. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Britton, Jr, Charles L. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Wootan, D. W. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Anheier, Jr, N. C. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Diaz, A. A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hirt, E. H. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Chien, H. T. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Sheen, S. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Bakhtiari, Sasan [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Gopalsami, S. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Heifetz, A. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Tam, S. W. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Park, Y. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Upadhyaya, B. R. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Stanford, A. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)

    2016-10-01

    Sensors and measurement technologies provide information on processes, support operations and provide indications of component health. They are therefore crucial to plant operations and to commercialization of advanced reactors (AdvRx). This report, developed by a three-laboratory team consisting of Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), provides an assessment of sensor technologies and a determination of measurement needs for AdvRx. It provides the technical basis for identifying and prioritizing research targets within the instrumentation and control (I&C) Technology Area under the Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Advanced Reactor Technology (ART) program and contributes to the design and implementation of AdvRx concepts.

  9. Constructive Technology Assessment for HIT development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Høstgaard, Anna Marie Balling; Bertelsen, Pernille; Petersen, Lone Stub

    2013-01-01

    Experience and time has shown a need for new evaluation methods for evaluating Health Information Technology (HIT), as summative evaluation methods fail to accommodate the rapid and constant changes in HIT over time and to involve end-users, which has been recognized as an important success factor...... in HIT development. A new evaluation methodology, including an analytical framework, has been developed specifically for HIT development: Constructive Technology Assessment (CTA) for HIT. It offers solutions to both the problems associated with summative technology evaluation and a way to involve end......-users. The CTA methodology is based on a Socio-technical understanding of technological development as an open ended, emergent process. The CTA was used during the EHR development process in the Region of North Jutland where it proved successful inproviding learning and feedback between all relevant groups...

  10. Evaluating probability forecasts

    CERN Document Server

    Lai, Tze Leung; Shen, David Bo; 10.1214/11-AOS902

    2012-01-01

    Probability forecasts of events are routinely used in climate predictions, in forecasting default probabilities on bank loans or in estimating the probability of a patient's positive response to treatment. Scoring rules have long been used to assess the efficacy of the forecast probabilities after observing the occurrence, or nonoccurrence, of the predicted events. We develop herein a statistical theory for scoring rules and propose an alternative approach to the evaluation of probability forecasts. This approach uses loss functions relating the predicted to the actual probabilities of the events and applies martingale theory to exploit the temporal structure between the forecast and the subsequent occurrence or nonoccurrence of the event.

  11. Sustainability assessment of advanced wastewater treatment technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Høibye, Linda; Clauson-Kaas, Jes; Wenzel, Henrik

    2007-01-01

    , which includes technical, economic and environmental aspects. The technical and economic assessment is performed on 5 advanced treatment technologies: sand filtration, ozone treatment, UV exclusively for disinfection of pathogenic microorganisms, Membrane Bioreactor (MBR), and UV in combination...... and three advanced treatment methods: sand filtration, ozone treatment and MBR. The technical and economic assessment showed that UV solely for disinfection purposes or ozone treatment are the most advantageous advanved treatment methods if the demands are restricted to pathogenic microorganisms. In terms......As a consequence of the EU Water Framwork Directive, more focus is now on discharges of hazardous substances from wastewater treatment plants and sewers. Thus, many municipalities in Denmark may have to adopt to future advenced treatment technologies. This paper describes a holistic assessment...

  12. Sustainability assessment of advanced wastewater treatment technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Høibye, L; Clauson-Kaas, J; Wenzel, H; Larsen, H F; Jacobsen, B N; Dalgaard, O

    2008-01-01

    As a consequence of the EU Water Framework Directive more focus is now on discharges of hazardous substances from wastewater treatment plants and sewers. Thus, many municipalities in Denmark may have to adopt to future advanced treatment technologies. This paper describes a holistic assessment, which includes technical, economical and environmental aspects. The technical and economical assessment is performed on 5 advanced treatment technologies: sand filtration, ozone treatment, UV exclusively for disinfection of pathogenic microorganisms, membrane bioreactor (MBR) and UV in combination with advanced oxidation. The technical assessment is based on 12 hazardous substances comprising heavy metals, organic pollutants, endocrine disruptors as well as pathogenic microorganisms. The environmental assessment is performed by life cycle assessment (LCA) comprising 9 of the specific hazardous substances and three advanced treatment methods; sand filtration, ozone treatment and MBR. The technical and economic assessment showed that UV solely for disinfection purposes or ozone treatment is the most advantageous advanced treatment methods if the demands are restricted to pathogenic microorganisms. In terms of sustainability, sand filtration is the most advantageous method based on the technical and environmental assessment due to the low energy consumption and high efficiency with regards to removal of heavy metals.

  13. Global Forty-Years Validation of Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts: Assessing El Ni\\~no-Driven Skill

    CERN Document Server

    Manzanas, R; Cofiño, A S; Gutiérrez, J M

    2013-01-01

    The skill of seasonal precipitation forecasts is assessed worldwide -grid point by grid point- for the forty-years period 1961-2000. To this aim, the ENSEMBLES multi-model hindcast is considered. Although predictability varies with region, season and lead-time, results indicate that 1) significant skill is mainly located in the tropics -20 to 40% of the total land areas-, 2) overall, SON (MAM) is the most (less) skillful season and 3) predictability does not decrease noticeably from one to four months lead-time -this is so especially in northern south America and the Malay archipelago, which seem to be the most skillful regions of the world-. An analysis of teleconnections revealed that most of the skillful zones exhibit significant teleconnections with El Ni\\~no. Furthermore, models are shown to reproduce similar teleconnection patterns to those observed, especially in SON -with spatial correlations of around 0.6 in the tropics-. Moreover, these correlations are systematically higher for the skillful areas. ...

  14. Role of climate forecasts and initial land-surface conditions in developing operational streamflow and soil moisture forecasts in a rainfall-runoff regime: skill assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Sinha

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Skillful seasonal streamflow forecasts obtained from climate and land surface conditions could significantly improve water and energy management. Since climate forecasts are updated on monthly basis, we evaluate the potential in developing operational monthly streamflow forecasts on a continuous basis throughout the year. Further, basins in the rainfall-runoff regime critically depend on the forecasted precipitation in the upcoming months as opposed to snowmelt regimes where initial hydrological conditions (IHC play a critical role. The goal of this study is to quantify the role of monthly updated precipitation forecasts and IHC in forecasting 6-month lead monthly streamflow for a rainfall-runoff mechanism dominated basin – Apalachicola River at Chattahoochee, FL. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC land surface model is implemented with two forcings: (a monthly updated precipitation forecasts from ECHAM4.5 Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM forced with sea surface temperature forecasts and (b daily climatological ensemble. The difference in skill between the above two quantifies the improvements that could be attainable using the AGCM forecasts. Monthly retrospective streamflow forecasts are developed from 1981 to 2010 and streamflow forecasts estimated from the VIC model are also compared with those predicted by using the principal component regression (PCR model. Mean square error (MSE in predicting monthly streamflow using the above VIC model are compared with the MSE of streamflow climatology under ENSO conditions as well as under normal years. Results indicate that VIC forecasts, at 1–2 month lead time, obtained using ECHAM4.5 are significantly better than VIC forecasts obtained using climatological ensemble over all the seasons except forecasts issued in fall and the PCR models perform better during the fall months. Over longer lead times (3–6 months, VIC forecasts derived using ECHAM4.5 forcings alone performed better

  15. Technology enhanced peer learning and peer assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, Christian Bugge; Bregnhøj, Henrik; Rosthøj, Susanne

    2016-01-01

    This paper explores the application of learning designs featuring formalised and structured technology enhanced peer learning. These include student produced learning elements, peer review discussions and peer assessment in the BSc/MSc level summer course Restoration of European Ecosystems...... and Freshwaters (REEF), the Master thesis preparation seminars for the Master of Public Health (MPH) and the MOOC course Global Environmental Management (GEM). The application of student produced learning elements and peer review discussions is investigated by analyzing quotes from course evaluations...... and performing focus group interviews. The application of peer assessment is investigated by analyzing the agreement of peer assessment between students assessing the same assignment. Our analyses confirm previous research on the value of peer learning and peer assessment and we argue that there could also...

  16. Technology enhanced peer learning and peer assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Bugge Henriksen

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores the application of learning designs featuring formalised and structured technology enhanced peer learning. These include student produced learning elements, peer review discussions and peer assessment in the BSc/MSc level summer course Restoration of European Ecosystems and Freshwaters (REEF, the Master thesis preparation seminars for the Master of Public Health (MPH and the MOOC course Global Environmental Management (GEM. The application of student produced learning elements and peer review discussions is investigated by analyzing quotes from course evaluations and performing focus group interviews. The application of peer assessment is investigated by analyzing the agreement of peer assessment between students assessing the same assignment. Our analyses confirm previous research on the value of peer learning and peer assessment and we argue that there could also be a huge benefit from developing learning design patterns that facilitate informal peer learning and reinforce knowledge sharing practices.

  17. Health Technology Assessment: a field still maturing!

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renaldo N. Battista

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available

    With this issue’s focus on Health Technology Assessment (HTA, the Italian Journal of Public Health has tackled an area of growing importance in today’s increasingly complex health care delivery systems.

    As the articles in this issue demonstrate, HTA has grown from a relatively narrow technical focus to a form of policy research underway in dozens of countries. Since its inception just over three decades ago,HTA has evolved through three distinct phases: the machine, the disease and the delivery mode, with the third of these still underway.

    As the focus has shifted from machines to disease conditions to service delivery approaches, HTA has drawn on research and modes of discourse from a growing variety of disciplines. Thus, despite the evolution that continues, HTA remains, at its core, both multidisciplinary and pragmatic, for the strengths of HTA arise from its integration of the efforts of actors in multiple, diverse disciplines with a view to producing knowledge that will assist decision-makers. The machine phase was marked by a focus on the technical performance of health technologies, often embodying innovative approaches to diagnosis or treatment of human illness.

    Given the newness and costliness of many technologies selected for assessment, a significant emphasis was placed on assessing the safety of these devices. Imaging technologies were the subject of assessment in many settings, perhaps in part because devices such as the CT scanner produced remarkable visual results that were heralded as affording breakthroughs in diagnosis and treatment. One need only look through the programs of early HTA conferences to see the emphasis on high cost, infrastructure-intensive health technologies that was the hallmark of the machine period.

  18. Technology Audit: Assessment of Innovative Portfolio

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kurushina Viktoria

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses the features of the technological audit performing in the companies of oil and gas sector of Russian economy. To measure the innovations quality level the scale was developed based on the Theory of Inventive Problem Solving and the theory of technological structures. Figures of the innovations quantity by levels, volume and quality of the innovative portfolio are offered for assessment the innovative portfolio quality. The method was tested on an example of oil and gas transporting enterprises. The results of the comparative analysis of innovative portfolio are shown.

  19. Quadrennial Technology Review 2015: Technology Assessments--Marine and Hydrokinetic Power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sam Baldwin, Gilbert Bindewald, Austin Brown, Charles Chen, Kerry Cheung, Corrie Clark, Joe Cresko,

    2015-10-07

    Marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) technologies convert the energy of waves, tides, and river and ocean currents into electricity. With more than 50% of the U.S. population living within 50 miles of the nation’s coasts, MHK technologies hold significant potential to supply renewable electricity to consumers in coastal load centers, particularly in the near term in areas with high costs of electricity and longer term in high resource areas in close proximity to major coastal load centers. MHK resource assessments identify a total U.S. technical resource potential of approximately 1250–1850 terawatt-hours (TWh) of generation per year from ocean wave, ocean current, ocean tidal, and river current energy. Of this, the U.S. continental technical resource potential is approximately 500–750 TWh/year. For context, roughly 90,000 homes can be powered by 1 TWh of electricity generation each year. A cost-effective MHK industry could provide a substantial amount of electricity for the nation owing in large part to its unique advantages as a source of energy, including its vast resource potential, its close proximity to major coastal load centers, and its long-term predictability and near-term forecastability.

  20. Assessment of GNSS-based height data of multiple ships for measuring and forecasting great tsunamis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inazu, Daisuke; Waseda, Takuji; Hibiya, Toshiyuki; Ohta, Yusaku

    2016-12-01

    Ship height positioning by the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) was investigated for measuring and forecasting great tsunamis. We first examined GNSS height-positioning data of a navigating vessel. If we use the kinematic precise point positioning (PPP) method, tsunamis greater than 10-1 m will be detected by ship height positioning. Based on Automatic Identification System (AIS) data, we found that tens of cargo ships and tankers are usually identified to navigate over the Nankai Trough, southwest Japan. We assumed that a future Nankai Trough great earthquake tsunami will be observed by the kinematic PPP height positioning of an AIS-derived ship distribution, and examined the tsunami forecast capability of the offshore tsunami measurements based on the PPP-based ship height. A method to estimate the initial tsunami height distribution using offshore tsunami observations was used for forecasting. Tsunami forecast tests were carried out using simulated tsunami data by the PPP-based ship height of 92 cargo ships/tankers, and by currently operating deep-sea pressure and Global Positioning System (GPS) buoy observations at 71 stations over the Nankai Trough. The forecast capability using the PPP-based height of the 92 ships was shown to be comparable to or better than that using the operating offshore observatories at the 71 stations. We suppose that, immediately after the occurrence of a great earthquake, stations receiving successive ship information (AIS data) along certain areas of the coast would fail to acquire ship data due to strong ground shaking, especially near the epicenter. Such a situation would significantly deteriorate the tsunami-forecast capability using ship data. On the other hand, operational real-time analysis of seismic/geodetic data would be carried out for estimating a tsunamigenic fault model. Incorporating the seismic/geodetic fault model estimation into the tsunami forecast above possibly compensates for the deteriorated forecast

  1. A plan for the economic assessment of the benefits of improved meteorological forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharyya, R.; Greenberg, J.

    1975-01-01

    Benefit-cost relationships for the development of meteorological satellites are outlined. The weather forecast capabilities of the various weather satellites (Tiros, SEOS, Nimbus) are discussed, and the development of additional satellite systems is examined. A rational approach is development that leads to the establishment of the economic benefits which may result from the utilization of meteorological satellite data. The economic and social impacts of improved weather forecasting for industries and resources management are discussed, and significant weather sensitive industries are listed.

  2. Application of remotely sensed data for landslide hazard assessment and forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bach Kirschbaum, D.; Stanley, T.; Simmons, J. M. D.; Cappelaere, P. G.

    2014-12-01

    Over the past five years, rainfall-triggered landslides have caused over 16,000 fatalities in 65 countries and have resulted in higher annual property losses than any other natural disaster. Yet while hurricanes and earthquakes have global monitoring systems in place to alert disaster response agencies, governments and regional humanitarian groups of potential disasters and related impacts, no such real-time monitoring system exists for rainfall-triggered landslides. This work introduces a new regionally-based system to evaluate landslide hazards in near-real-time through the application of remotely sensed and in situ data. Build upon existing modeling efforts, the landslide hazard assessment and nowcasting system couples satellite precipitation data, a modeled and satellite-based soil moisture product and susceptibility information to improve the characterization of areas that may experience landslide activity. The goal of this system is to better inform decision-making and disaster response agencies on landslide hazards at the regional scale. This system outputs a straightforward, easily-interpreted set of landslide hazard assessment products available in near real-time for the Mesoamerica region that can be used to both identify landslide-prone areas and forecast the potential location and timing of landslide initiation in the future. This research presents the prototype regional model tested over Central America and the Caribbean region using satellite-based information including Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) near real-time rainfall, modeled soil moisture, topography, soils, road networks and distance to fault zones. These variables are integrated within a simple algorithm framework and model outputs provide a probabilistic representation of potential landslide activity over the region. This presentation summarizes the preliminary results of this modeling framework, discusses the utility of these products for landslide hazard characterization

  3. Analysing UK real estate market forecast disagreement

    OpenAIRE

    McAllister, Patrick; Newell, G.; Matysiak, George

    2005-01-01

    Given the significance of forecasting in real estate investment decisions, this paper investigates forecast uncertainty and disagreement in real estate market forecasts. Using the Investment Property Forum (IPF) quarterly survey amongst UK independent real estate forecasters, these real estate forecasts are compared with actual real estate performance to assess a number of real estate forecasting issues in the UK over 1999-2004, including real estate forecast error, bias and consensus. The re...

  4. Assessing the Effectiveness of the Cone of Probability as a Visual Means of Communicating Scientific Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orlove, B. S.; Broad, K.; Meyer, R.

    2010-12-01

    We review the evolution, communication, and differing interpretations of the National Hurricane Center (NHC)'s "cone of uncertainty" hurricane forecast graphic, drawing on several related disciplines—cognitive psychology, visual anthropology, and risk communication theory. We examine the 2004 hurricane season, two specific hurricanes (Katrina 2005 and Ike 2008) and the 2010 hurricane season, still in progress. During the 2004 hurricane season, five named storms struck Florida. Our analysis of that season draws upon interviews with key government officials and media figures, archival research of Florida newspapers, analysis of public comments on the NHC cone of uncertainty graphic and a multiagency study of 2004 hurricane behavior. At that time, the hurricane forecast graphic was subject to misinterpretation by many members of the public. We identify several characteristics of this graphic that contributed to public misinterpretation. Residents overemphasized the specific track of the eye, failed to grasp the width of hurricanes, and generally did not recognize the timing of the passage of the hurricane. Little training was provided to emergency response managers in the interpretation of forecasts. In the following year, Katrina became a national scandal, further demonstrating the limitations of the cone as a means of leading to appropriate responses to forecasts. In the second half of the first decade of the 21st century, three major changes occurred in hurricane forecast communication: the forecasts themselves improved in terms of accuracy and lead time, the NHC made minor changes in the graphics and expanded the explanatory material that accompanies the graphics, and some efforts were made to reach out to emergency response planners and municipal officials to enhance their understanding of the forecasts and graphics. There were some improvements in the responses to Ike, though a number of deaths were due to inadequate evacuations, and property damage probably

  5. Natural-technological risk assessment and management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burova, Valentina; Frolova, Nina

    2016-04-01

    EM-DAT statistical data on human impact and economic damages in the 1st semester 2015 are the highest since 2011: 41% of disasters were floods, responsible for 39% of economic damage and 7% of events were earthquakes responsible for 59% of total death toll. This suggests that disaster risk assessment and management still need to be improved and stay the principle issue in national and international related programs. The paper investigates the risk assessment and management practice in the Russian Federation at different levels. The method is proposed to identify the territories characterized by integrated natural-technological hazard. The maps of the Russian Federation zoning according to the integrated natural-technological hazard level are presented, as well as the procedure of updating the integrated hazard level taking into account the activity of separate processes. Special attention is paid to data bases on past natural and technological processes consequences, which are used for verification of current hazard estimation. The examples of natural-technological risk zoning for the country and some regions territory are presented. Different output risk indexes: both social and economic, are estimated taking into account requirements of end-users. In order to increase the safety of population of the Russian Federation the trans-boundaries hazards are also taken into account.

  6. Energy Effectiveness Assessment of Composting Technologies

    OpenAIRE

    Plūme, I.

    2006-01-01

    The incorrect biomass composting improperly results in considerable emission of greenhouse gases, loss of effluent and composting heat into environment. The composting heat and gases utilisation is especially suitable for plant enrichment and heating of greenhouses. The mathematical model is worked out for assessment of energy effectiveness and sustainability of biomass composting process. Coefficient of energy effectiveness for traditional litter manure composting technologies is 0.45 and ca...

  7. Use of technology in children's dietary assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boushey, C J; Kerr, D A; Wright, J; Lutes, K D; Ebert, D S; Delp, E J

    2009-02-01

    Information on dietary intake provides some of the most valuable insights for mounting intervention programmes for the prevention of chronic diseases. With the growing concern about adolescent overweight, the need to accurately measure diet becomes imperative. Assessment among adolescents is problematic as this group has irregular eating patterns and they have less enthusiasm for recording food intake. We used qualitative and quantitative techniques among adolescents to assess their preferences for dietary assessment methods. Dietary assessment methods using technology, for example, a personal digital assistant (PDA) or a disposable camera, were preferred over the pen and paper food record. There was a strong preference for using methods that incorporate technology such as capturing images of food. This suggests that for adolescents, dietary methods that incorporate technology may improve cooperation and accuracy. Current computing technology includes higher resolution images, improved memory capacity and faster processors that allow small mobile devices to process information not previously possible. Our goal is to develop, implement and evaluate a mobile device (for example, PDA, mobile phone) food record that will translate to an accurate account of daily food and nutrient intake among adolescents. This mobile computing device will include digital images, a nutrient database and image analysis for identification and quantification of food consumption. Mobile computing devices provide a unique vehicle for collecting dietary information that reduces the burden on record keepers. Images of food can be marked with a variety of input methods that link the item for image processing and analysis to estimate the amount of food. Images before and after the foods are eaten can estimate the amount of food consumed. The initial stages and potential of this project will be described.

  8. An Assessment of Melting Season Streamflow Forecasts using EPS for a Snow Dominated Basin in Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ertaş, Cansaran; Şensoy, Aynur; Akkol, Bulut; Şorman, Arda; Uysal, Gökçen; Çoşkun, Cihan

    2016-04-01

    In many mountainous regions, snowmelt makes significant contribution to streamflow, particularly during spring and summer months. Therefore, runoff modeling and forecasting during spring and early summer is important in terms of energy and water resources management. In this study, the Upper Euphrates Basin (10,275 km2 area and elevation range of 1125-3500 m) located at the headwater of Euphrates River, one of Turkey's most important rivers, is selected as the application area. In this region, snowmelt runoff constitutes approximately 2/3 in volume of the total yearly runoff. The aim of the study is to make a forward-oriented, medium-range flow forecasting using Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) which is a pioneer study for Turkey. Conceptual hydrological model HBV, which has a common usage in the literature, is chosen to predict streamflows. According to preliminary results, Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiencies are 0.85 for calibration (2001-2008) and 0.71 for validation (2009-2014) respectively. After calibrating/validating the hydrologic model, EPS data including 51 different combinations produced by ECMWF is used as probability based weather forecasts. Melting period during March-June of 2009-2015 is chosen as the forecast period. The probabilistic skill of EPS based hydrological model results are analyzed to verify the ensemble forecasts.

  9. Assessing the Effects of Climate Variability on Orange Yield in Florida to Reduce Production Forecast Errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Concha Larrauri, P.

    2015-12-01

    Orange production in Florida has experienced a decline over the past decade. Hurricanes in 2004 and 2005 greatly affected production, almost to the same degree as strong freezes that occurred in the 1980's. The spread of the citrus greening disease after the hurricanes has also contributed to a reduction in orange production in Florida. The occurrence of hurricanes and diseases cannot easily be predicted but the additional effects of climate on orange yield can be studied and incorporated into existing production forecasts that are based on physical surveys, such as the October Citrus forecast issued every year by the USDA. Specific climate variables ocurring before and after the October forecast is issued can have impacts on flowering, orange drop rates, growth, and maturation, and can contribute to the forecast error. Here we present a methodology to incorporate local climate variables to predict the USDA's orange production forecast error, and we study the local effects of climate on yield in different counties in Florida. This information can aid farmers to gain an insight on what is to be expected during the orange production cycle, and can help supply chain managers to better plan their strategy.

  10. Assessing the value of post-processed state-of-the-art long-term weather forecast ensembles for agricultural water management mediated by farmers' behaviours

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yu; Giuliani, Matteo; Castelletti, Andrea

    2016-04-01

    Recent advances in modelling of coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics significantly improved skills of long-term climate forecast from global circulation models (GCMs). These more accurate weather predictions are supposed to be a valuable support to farmers in optimizing farming operations (e.g. crop choice, cropping and watering time) and for more effectively coping with the adverse impacts of climate variability. Yet, assessing how actually valuable this information can be to a farmer is not straightforward and farmers' response must be taken into consideration. Indeed, in the context of agricultural systems potentially useful forecast information should alter stakeholders' expectation, modify their decisions, and ultimately produce an impact on their performance. Nevertheless, long-term forecast are mostly evaluated in terms of accuracy (i.e., forecast quality) by comparing hindcast and observed values and only few studies investigated the operational value of forecast looking at the gain of utility within the decision-making context, e.g. by considering the derivative of forecast information, such as simulated crop yields or simulated soil moisture, which are essential to farmers' decision-making process. In this study, we contribute a step further in the assessment of the operational value of long-term weather forecasts products by embedding these latter into farmers' behavioral models. This allows a more critical assessment of the forecast value mediated by the end-users' perspective, including farmers' risk attitudes and behavioral patterns. Specifically, we evaluate the operational value of thirteen state-of-the-art long-range forecast products against climatology forecast and empirical prediction (i.e. past year climate and historical average) within an integrated agronomic modeling framework embedding an implicit model of the farmers' decision-making process. Raw ensemble datasets are bias-corrected and downscaled using a stochastic weather generator, in

  11. Considerations in forecasting the demand for carbon sequestration and biotic storage technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trexler, M.C. [Trexler and Associates, Inc., Portland, OR (United States)

    1997-12-31

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has identified forestry and other land-use based mitigation measures as possible sources and sinks of greenhouse gases. An overview of sequestration and biotic storage is presented, and the potential impacts of the use of carbon sequestration as a mitigation technology are briefly noted. Carbon sequestration is also compare to other mitigation technologies. Biotic mitigation technologies are concluded to be a legitimate and potentially important part of greenhouse gas mitigation due to their relatively low costs, ancillary benefits, and climate impact. However, not all biotic mitigation techniques perfectly match the idealized definition of a mitigation measure, and policies are becoming increasingly biased against biotic technologies.

  12. Medium-range fire weather forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.O. Roads; K. Ueyoshi; S.C. Chen; J. Alpert; F. Fujioka

    1991-01-01

    The forecast skill of theNational Meteorological Center's medium range forecast (MRF) numerical forecasts of fire weather variables is assessed for the period June 1,1988 to May 31,1990. Near-surface virtual temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and a derived fire weather index (FWI) are forecast well by the MRF model. However, forecast relative humidity has...

  13. Operational skill assessment of the IBI-MFC Ocean Forecasting System within the frame of the CMEMS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorente Jimenez, Pablo; Garcia-Sotillo, Marcos; Amo-Balandron, Arancha; Aznar Lecocq, Roland; Perez Gomez, Begoña; Levier, Bruno; Alvarez-Fanjul, Enrique

    2016-04-01

    Since operational ocean forecasting systems (OOFSs) are increasingly used as tools to support high-stakes decision-making for coastal management, a rigorous skill assessment of model performance becomes essential. In this context, the IBI-MFC (Iberia-Biscay-Ireland Monitoring & Forecasting Centre) has been providing daily ocean model estimates and forecasts for the IBI regional seas since 2011, first in the frame of MyOcean projects and later as part of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS). A comprehensive web validation tool named NARVAL (North Atlantic Regional VALidation) has been developed to routinely monitor IBI performance and to evaluate model's veracity and prognostic capabilities. Three-dimensional comparisons are carried out on a different time basis ('online mode' - daily verifications - and 'delayed mode' - for longer time periods -) using a broad variety of in-situ (buoys, tide-gauges, ARGO-floats, drifters and gliders) and remote-sensing (satellite and HF radars) observational sources as reference fields to validate against the NEMO model solution. Product quality indicators and meaningful skill metrics are automatically computed not only averaged over the entire IBI domain but also over specific sub-regions of particular interest from a user perspective (i.e. coastal or shelf areas) in order to determine IBI spatial and temporal uncertainty levels. A complementary aspect of NARVAL web tool is the intercomparison of different CMEMS forecast model solutions in overlapping areas. Noticeable efforts are in progress in order to quantitatively assess the quality and consistency of nested system outputs by setting up specific intercomparison exercises on different temporal and spatial scales, encompassing global configurations (CMEMS Global system), regional applications (NWS and MED ones) and local high-resolution coastal models (i.e. the PdE SAMPA system in the Gibraltar Strait). NARVAL constitutes a powerful approach to increase

  14. The development of health technology assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banta, David

    2003-02-01

    The field of health technology assessment (HTA) is still relatively new, but it has shown remarkable growth over the last decade, having spread first from the United States to Europe, and now to the entire world. HTA seeks to couple evidence with decision-making, and thus has similarities to evidence-based health care and evidence-based policy-making. The early history of HTA, beginning around 1975, reveals a first period of synthesising available evidence-principally that dealing with efficacy and cost-effectiveness of health care interventions-so as to put it in a format helpful to health policy-makers, especially those in national governments. From 1985 or so, the focus of the second period was on seeking more effective links with these policy-makers, particularly in Europe. The most recent period, beginning in the late 1990s, has been increasingly devoted to more effective dissemination and implementation in order to influence administrators and clinicians. While early assessments tended to focus on large, expensive, machine-based technologies, the scope has gradually widened to include smaller technologies, 'softer' technologies (such as counselling), and health care needs. Actual assessments have also taken on broader issues, such as organisational, social, and ethical implications. In the Member States of the European Union (EU), HTA activities are increasingly visible, and almost all now have a national focus for HTA associated with the Ministry of Health or its equivalent. Central and Eastern European countries are also developing HTA activities. Most recently, HTA has been highlighted by health policy documents from the European Commission. It seems likely that HTA will in the future be institutionalised in some form as part of EU activities.

  15. Can Apparent Stress be Used to Time-Dependent Seismic Hazard Assessment or Earthquake Forecast? An Ongoing Approach in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Zhongliang; Jiang, Changsheng; Zhang, Shengfeng

    2016-08-01

    The approach in China since the last 1.5 decade for using apparent stress in time-dependent seismic hazard assessment or earthquake forecast is summarized. Retrospective case studies observe that apparent stress exhibits short-term increase, with time scale of several months, before moderate to strong earthquakes in a large area surrounding the `target earthquake'. Apparent stress is also used to estimate the tendency of aftershock activity. The concept relating apparent stress indirectly to stress level is used to understand the properties of some `precursory' anomalies. Meanwhile, different opinions were reported. Problems in the calculation also existed for some cases. Moreover, retrospective studies have the limitation in their significance as compared to forward forecast test. Nevertheless, this approach, seemingly uniquely carried out in a large scale in mainland China, provides the earthquake catalogs for the predictive analysis of seismicity with an additional degree of freedom, deserving a systematic review and reflection.

  16. Tiger Team Assessment, Energy Technology Engineering Center

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-04-01

    The Office Special Projects within the Office of Environment, Safety, and Health (EH) has the responsibility to conduct Tiger Team Assessments for the Secretary of Energy. This report presents the assessment of the buildings, facilities, and activities under the DOE/Rockwell Contract No. DE-AM03-76SF00700 for the Energy Technology Engineering Center (ETEC) and of other DOE-owned buildings and facilities at the Santa Susana Field Laboratory (SSFL) site in southeastern Ventura County, California, not covered under Contract No. DE-AM03-76SF00700, but constructed over the years under various other contracts between DOE and Rockwell International. ETEC is an engineering development complex operated for DOE by the Rocketdyne Division of Rockwell International Corporation. ETEC is located within SSFL on land owned by Rockwell. The balance of the SSFL complex is owned and operated by Rocketdyne, with the exception of a 42-acre parcel owned by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The primary mission of ETEC is to provide engineering, testing, and development of components related to liquid metals technology and to conduct applied engineering development of emerging energy technologies.

  17. Technology assessment of wind energy conversion systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meier, B. W.; Merson, T. J.

    1980-09-01

    Environmental data for wind energy conversion systems (WECSs) have been generated in support of the Technology Assessment of Solar Energy (TASE) program. Two candidates have been chosen to characterize the WECS that might be deployed if this technology makes a significant contribution to the national energy requirements. One WECS is a large machine of 1.5-MW-rated capacity that can be used by utilities. The other WECS is a small machine that is characteristic of units that might be used to meet residential or small business energy requirements. Energy storage systems are discussed for each machine to address the intermittent nature of wind power. Many types of WECSs are being studied and a brief review of the technology is included to give background for choosing horizontal axis designs for this study. Cost estimates have been made for both large and small systems as required for input to the Strategic Environmental Assessment Simulation (SEAS) computer program. Material requirements, based on current generation WECSs, are discussed and a general discussion of environmental impacts associated with WECS deployment is presented.

  18. Life cycle assessment of forecasting scenarios for urban water management: A first implementation of the WaLA model on Paris suburban area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loubet, Philippe; Roux, Philippe; Guérin-Schneider, Laetitia; Bellon-Maurel, Véronique

    2016-03-01

    A framework and an associated modeling tool to perform life cycle assessment (LCA) of urban water system, namely the WaLA model, has been recently developed. In this paper, the WaLA model is applied to a real case study: the urban water system of the Paris suburban area, in France. It aims to verify the capacity of the model to provide environmental insights to stakeholder's issues related to future trends influencing the system (e.g., evolution of water demand, increasing water scarcity) or policy responses (e.g., choices of water resources and technologies). This is achieved by evaluating a baseline scenario for 2012 and several forecasting scenarios for 2022 and 2050. The scenarios are designed through the modeling tool WaLA, which is implemented in Simulink/Matlab: it combines components representing the different technologies, users and resources of the UWS. The life cycle inventories of the technologies and users components include water quantity and quality changes, specific operation (electricity, chemicals) and infrastructures data (construction materials). The methods selected for the LCIA are midpoint ILCD, midpoint water deprivation impacts at the sub-river basin scale, and endpoint Impact 2002+. The results of the baseline scenario show that wastewater treatment plants have the highest impacts compared to drinking water production and distribution, as traditionally encountered in LCA of UWS. The results of the forecasting scenarios show important changes in water deprivation impacts due to water management choices or effects of climate change. They also enable to identify tradeoffs with other impact categories and to compare several scenarios. It suggests the capacity of the model to deliver information for decision making about future policies.

  19. Landslides in Nicaragua - Mapping, Inventory, Hazard Assessment, Vulnerability Reduction, and Forecasting Attempts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dévoli, G.; Strauch, W.; Álvarez, A.; Muñoz, A.; Kjekstad, O.

    2009-04-01

    A successful landslide hazard and risk assessment requires awareness and good understanding of the potential landslide problems within the geographic area involved. However, this requirement is not always met in developing countries where population, scientific community, and the government may not be aware of the landslide threat. The landslide hazard assessment is often neglected or is based on sparse and not well documented technical information. In Nicaragua (Central America), the basic conditions for landslide hazard and risk assessment were first created after the catastrophic landslides triggered by Hurricane Mitch in October 1998. A single landslide took the life of thousands of people at Casita volcano forcing entire communities to be evacuated or relocated and, furthermore, thousands of smaller landslides caused loss of fertile soils and pasture lands, and made serious damages to the infrastructure. Since those events occurred, the public awareness has increased and the country relies now on new local and national governmental laws and policies, on a number of landslide investigations, and on educational and training programs. Dozens of geologists have been capacitated to investigate landslide prone areas, The Instituto Nicaragüense de Estudios Territoriales (INETER), governmental geo-scientific institution, has assumed the responsibility to help land-use planners and public officials to reduce geological hazard losses. They are committed to work cooperatively with national, international, and local agencies, universities and the private sector to provide scientific information and improve public safety through forecasting and warnings. However, in order to provide successful long-term landslide hazard assessment, the institutions must face challenges related to the scarcity and varied quality of available landslide information; collection and access to dispersed data and documents; organization of landslide information in a form that can be easy to

  20. ELECTRIC INFRASTRUCTURE TECHNOLOGY, TRAINING, AND ASSESSMENT PROGRAM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    TREMEL, CHARLES L

    2007-06-28

    The objective of this Electric Infrastructure Technology, Training and Assessment Program was to enhance the reliability of electricity delivery through engineering integration of real-time technologies for wide-area applications enabling timely monitoring and management of grid operations. The technologies developed, integrated, tested and demonstrated will be incorporated into grid operations to assist in the implementation of performance-based protection/preventive measures into the existing electric utility infrastructure. This proactive approach will provide benefits of reduced cost and improved reliability over the typical schedule-based and as needed maintenance programs currently performed by utilities. Historically, utilities have relied on maintenance and inspection programs to diagnose equipment failures and have used the limited circuit isolation devices, such as distribution main circuit breakers to identify abnormal system performance. With respect to reliable problem identification, customer calls to utility service centers are often the sole means for utilities to identify problem occurrences and determine restoration methodologies. Furthermore, monitoring and control functions of equipment and circuits are lacking; thus preventing timely detection and response to customer outages. Finally, the two-way flow of real-time system information is deficient, depriving decision makers of key information required to effectively manage and control current electric grid demands to provide reliable customer service in abnormal situations. This Program focused on advancing technologies and the engineering integration required to incorporate them into the electric grid operations to enhance electrical system reliability and reduce utility operating costs.

  1. IMPROVEMEnTS In ASSESSInG THE FORECASTS ACCURACY - A CASE STUDY FOR ROMAnIAn MACROECOnOMIC FORECASTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihaela (Simionescu Bratu

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to introduce new forecasts’ accuracy measures for two types of predictions: point forecasts (radical of order n of the mean of squared errors, mean for the differencebetween each predicted value and the mean of the effective values, ratio of radicals of sum of squared errors (RRSSE- for forecasts comparisons, different versions of U2 Theil’s statistic and forforecast intervals (number of intervals including the realization, difference between the realization and the lower limit, the upper one, respectively the interval centre. Comparisons are made to presentthe differences in results determined by the application of the classical measures of predictions accuracy for the inflation and unemployment rate forecasts provided for Romania by Institute forEconomic Forecasting (IEF and National Commission of Prognosis (NCP on the horizon 2010- 2012 and the values of new point forecasts accuracy measures. The hierarchy of predictions provided by the classical indicators and by the new ones are different. A novelty in literature is also brought by the methods of building the forecasts intervals. In addition to the classical interval basedon historical error method, some new techniques of building forecasts are used: intervals based on the standard deviation and those constructed using bootstrap technique bias-corrected-accelerated(BCA bootstrap method.

  2. Development of technology for coal thermal power generation. Present state and future forecast

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoshimura, Uichiro

    1987-01-01

    Summary of the 1987 coal technology development projects supported by the Agency of Natural Resources and Energy, and the related data such as positioning of coal thermal power plants, application technoloy system, etc. are presented. The coal power generation technology system projects scheduled for 1980 - 1990 were introduced. For the environmental protection, air polution constitutes a big problem, and technologies of desulfurization, denitration, etc. have been developed. In the field of application technology, liquefaction of coal, utilization of low-grade coals, coal gasification, application to combined cycle power generation, etc. can be quoted. The agency is supporting development of various application technologies as the 1987 projects, among them are: Development of entrained bed coal gasification power plant, Verification experiments of technologies for dry desulfurization for coal thermal power plant, Verification tests for operational improvement of coal thermal power plant, Study on the possibility of introducing large scale fluidized bed boiler to coal thermal power generation, Investigation of new power generation systems, Development of high performance coal thermal power technology, and Development of optimum control system for large scale fluidized bed boiler. (2 tabs, 4 photos)

  3. The Main Pillar: Assessment of Space Weather Observational Asset Performance Supporting Nowcasting, Forecasting and Research to Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Posner, Arik; Hesse, Michael; SaintCyr, Chris

    2014-01-01

    Space weather forecasting critically depends upon availability of timely and reliable observational data. It is therefore particularly important to understand how existing and newly planned observational assets perform during periods of severe space weather. Extreme space weather creates challenging conditions under which instrumentation and spacecraft may be impeded or in which parameters reach values that are outside the nominal observational range. This paper analyzes existing and upcoming observational capabilities for forecasting, and discusses how the findings may impact space weather research and its transition to operations. A single limitation to the assessment is lack of information provided to us on radiation monitor performance, which caused us not to fully assess (i.e., not assess short term) radiation storm forecasting. The assessment finds that at least two widely spaced coronagraphs including L4 would provide reliability for Earth-bound CMEs. Furthermore, all magnetic field measurements assessed fully meet requirements. However, with current or even with near term new assets in place, in the worst-case scenario there could be a near-complete lack of key near-real-time solar wind plasma data of severe disturbances heading toward and impacting Earth's magnetosphere. Models that attempt to simulate the effects of these disturbances in near real time or with archival data require solar wind plasma observations as input. Moreover, the study finds that near-future observational assets will be less capable of advancing the understanding of extreme geomagnetic disturbances at Earth, which might make the resulting space weather models unsuitable for transition to operations.

  4. A Novel Method for Technology Forecasting and Developing R&D Strategy of Building Integrated Photovoltaic Technology Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Jing Chiu

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Because of global warming, renewable energy technologies have become more essential currently, with solar energy technology advancing worldwide. Therefore, interdisciplinary integration is an important trend, and building-integrated photovoltaic (BIPV is an emerging technology involving the photovoltaic and building fields. The purpose of this study is to understand the technology evolution of BIPV and to determine the R&D planning direction. This paper proposes a hybrid approach to explore the life cycle of BIPV technology and develop the R&D strategy of related industries. The proposed approach comprises the following submodules. First, patent analysis is employed to transform patent documents into structured data. Second, the logistic growth model is used to explore the life cycle of BIPV technology. Third, a patent matrix map analysis is used to develop the R&D strategy of the BIPV industry. Through the analysis by the logistic model, the BIPV technology is transformed from the emerging stage to the growth stage of a long-term life cycle. The other important result is created by the three-dimensional matrix for R&D strategies in this paper.

  5. ['Medical technology assessment'; more than just efficacy].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buskens, E

    2000-03-25

    'Medical technology assessment' means investigating the developments, costs and effects of medical technologies. Practising physicians increasingly are confronted with consequences of management based on such research results. In order to follow and participate in the discussion they should be aware of this and know the jargon. In policy problems, measures of effect in natural units (e.g. cardiovascular mortality) offer advantages over measures of clinical findings (e.g. decrease of the serum cholesterol levels). Survival in various health states and disorders can be compared by multiplying the number of life years gained by a factor for the quality of life in those years. Costs are usually expressed in monetary terms. These may be calculated as direct medical costs on the basis of fees or actual costs for society. The latter is the case when the balancing is based on a societal perspective. The societal perspective enables a more objective assessment of health effects than when a patient perspective is used. 'Incremental cost effectiveness' expresses where extra expenditures will have maximum effect, and bears higher relevance for policy decisions than mean costs per unit of effect. Immaterial matters are more difficult to assess, but should nevertheless be considered in selecting the policy to be implemented.

  6. Real-Time Assessment of the 16 September 2015 Chile Tsunami and Implications for Near-Field Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Liujuan; Titov, Vasily V.; Moore, Christopher; Wei, Yong

    2016-02-01

    The magnitude 8.3 earthquake in central Chile on 16 September 2015 and the resulting tsunami severely affected the region, with 15 deaths ( Onemi in Monitoreo por sismo de mayor intensidad. (In Spanish) [Available at: http://www.onemi.cl/alerta/se-declara-alerta-roja-por-sismo-de-mayor-intensidad-y-alarma-de-tsunami/], 2015), over one million evacuated, and flooding in nearby coastal cities. We present our real-time assessment of the 2015 Chile tsunami using the Short-term Inundation Forecasting for Tsunamis system, and post-event analyses with local community models in Chile. We evaluate three real-time tsunami sources, which were inverted at the time that the first quarter-, half-, and full-wave passed the first tsunameter (DART 32402, located approximately 580 km north-northwest of the epicenter), respectively. Measurement comparisons from 26 deep-ocean tsunameters and 38 coastal tide stations show that good model accuracies are achieved for all three sources, particularly for the local sites that recorded the most destructive waves. The study highlights the forecast speed, time and accuracy dependence, and their implications for the local forecast capability. Our analyses suggest that the tsunami's main origination area is about 100-200 km long and 100 km wide, to the north of the earthquake epicenter along the trench and the total estimated tsunami wave energy is 7.9 × 1013 J (with 13 % uncertainty). The study provides important guidelines for the earliest reliable estimate of tsunami energy and local forecasts. They can be obtained with the first quarter-wave of tsunameter recording. These results are also confirmed by a forecast analysis of the 2011 Japan tsunami. Furthermore, we find that the first half-wave tsunameter data are sufficient to accurately forecast the 2015 Chile tsunami, due to the specific orientation between the nearest tsunameter and the source. The study also suggests expanding the operational use of the local community models in real

  7. Technology Assessment Need: Review on Attractiveness and Competitiveness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salwa Sait, Siti; Merlinda Muharam, Farrah; Chin, Thoo Ai; Sulaiman, Zuraidah

    2017-06-01

    Technology assessment is crucial in managing technology for the purpose of technology exploitation. With business environment continuously changing, firms have to address this issue critically as technology is considered one of the important elements to evaluate performance and gain competitive advantage. Missteps in deciding the best technology to be developed, employed or maintained would cost the firm overall value. To fulfil the need of finding the appropriate scale to assess suitable technology, this paper summarizes that technology assessment (TA) should cover two main aspects, namely technology attractiveness and competitiveness. These components are seen capable to link the scale suggested towards evaluation of financial and non-financial performance towards competitive advantage.

  8. Forecasting Innovation Pathways (FIP) for new and emerging science and technologies

    OpenAIRE

    Robinson, Douglas; Huang, Lu; Guo, Yan; Porter, Alan L

    2013-01-01

    International audience; "New" and "Emerging Science" and "Technologies" ("NESTs") have tremendous innovation potential. However this must be weighed against enormous uncertainties caused by many unknowns. The authors of this paper offer a framework to analyze NESTs to help ascertain likely innovation pathways.We have devised a 10-step framework based on extensive Future-oriented Technology Analyses ("FTA") experience, enriched by in-depth case analyses. In the paper, we describe our analytica...

  9. Forecasting Innovation Pathways (FIP) for new and emerging science and technologies

    OpenAIRE

    Robinson, Douglas,; Huang, Lu; Guo, Yan; Porter, Alan L.

    2013-01-01

    International audience; "New" and "Emerging Science" and "Technologies" ("NESTs") have tremendous innovation potential. However this must be weighed against enormous uncertainties caused by many unknowns. The authors of this paper offer a framework to analyze NESTs to help ascertain likely innovation pathways.We have devised a 10-step framework based on extensive Future-oriented Technology Analyses ("FTA") experience, enriched by in-depth case analyses. In the paper, we describe our analytica...

  10. Forecasting the Marine Corps’ Enlisted Classification Plan: Assessment of An Alternative Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-01

    Figure 8. Example GAR Requirements Over the FYDP.................................................24 Figure 9. Models’ MAPE Distribution...Marine Air-Ground Task Force MAPE Mean Absolute Percent Error MCT Marine Combat Training MOE Measure of Effectiveness MOS Military Occupational...Figure 9. Models’ MAPE Distribution However, an analysis of the steady-state model reveals that produced a forecast error mean of 40 percentage

  11. Assessing the performance of health technology assessment organizations: a framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lafortune, Louise; Farand, Lambert; Mondou, Isabelle; Sicotte, Claude; Battista, Renaldo

    2008-01-01

    In light of growing demands for public accountability, the broadening scope of health technology assessment organizations (HTAOs) activities and their increasing role in decision-making underscore the importance for them to demonstrate their performance. Based on Parson's social action theory, we propose a conceptual model that includes four functions an organization needs to balance to perform well: (i) goal attainment, (ii) production, (iii) adaptation to the environment, and (iv) culture and values maintenance. From a review of the HTA literature, we identify specific dimensions pertaining to the four functions and show how they relate to performance. We compare our model with evaluations reported in the scientific and gray literature to confirm its capacity to accommodate various evaluation designs, contexts of evaluation, and organizational models and perspectives. Our findings reveal the dimensions of performance most often assessed and other important ones that, hitherto, remain unexplored. The model provides a flexible and theoretically grounded tool to assess the performance of HTAOs.

  12. A conceptual framework for energy technology sustainability assessment

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Musango, Josephine K

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available the framework of incorporating the system dynamics methodology in energy technology assessment theory and practice within the context of sustainable development. The framework provides for technology sustainability assessment, which, in turn, can guide...

  13. Constructive technology assessment of gene expression profiling for breast cancer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Retèl, Valesca Pavlawna

    2011-01-01

    Constructive Technology Assessment (CTA) can be used as a complementary approach to Health Technology Assessment (HTA), especially for the early and dynamic introduction of new technologies in a controlled way. CTA is based on the idea that during the course of technology development, choices are co

  14. Application of numerical weather prediction in wind power forecasting: Assessment of the diurnal cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tobias Heppelmann

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available For a secure integration of weather dependent renewable energies in Germany's mixed power supply, precise forecasts of expected wind power are indispensable. These in turn are heavily dependent on numerical weather prediction (NWP. With this relevant area of application, NWP models need to be evaluated concerning new variables such as wind speed at hub heights of wind power plants. This article presents verification results of the deterministic NWP forecasts of the global ICON model, its ICON-EU nest, the COSMO-EU, and the COSMO-DE as well as of the ensemble prediction system COSMO-DE-EPS of the German National Weather Service (DWD, against wind mast observations. The focus is on the diurnal cycle in the Planetary Boundary Layer as wind power forecasts for Germany exhibit pronounced systematic amplitude and phase errors in the morning and evening hours. NWP forecasts with lead times up to 48 hours are examined. All considered NWP models reveal shortcomings concerning the representation of the diurnal cycle. Especially in summertime at onshore locations, when Low-Level Jets form, nocturnal wind speeds at hub height are underestimated. In the COSMO model, stable conditions are not sufficiently reflected in the first part of the night and the vertical mixing after sunrise establishes too late. The verification results of the COSMO-DE-EPS confirm the deficiencies of the deterministic forecasts. The deficiencies are present in all ensemble members and thus indicate potential for improvement not only in the model physics parameterization but also concerning the physical ensemble perturbations.

  15. Mobile technology for mental health assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Areàn, Patricia A; Hoa Ly, Kien; Andersson, Gerhard

    2016-06-01

    Assessment and outcome monitoring are critical for the effective detection and treatment of mental illness. Traditional methods of capturing social, functional, and behavioral data are limited to the information that patients report back to their health care provider at selected points in time. As a result, these data are not accurate accounts of day-to-day functioning, as they are often influenced by biases in self-report. Mobile technology (mobile applications on smartphones, activity bracelets) has the potential to overcome such problems with traditional assessment and provide information about patient symptoms, behavior, and functioning in real time. Although the use of sensors and apps are widespread, several questions remain in the field regarding the reliability of off-the-shelf apps and sensors, use of these tools by consumers, and provider use of these data in clinical decision-making.

  16. [Indirect costs in health technology assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jakubczyk, Michał; Wrona, Witold; Macioch, Tomasz; Golicki, Dominik; Niewada, Maciej; Hermanowski, Tomasz

    2010-01-01

    In the health technology assessment it is crucial to define the perspective of the analysis. When the societal perspective is chosen it is necessary to include all the costs incurred by the society, also the costs of lost productivity resulting from absence of sick employees from work or their reduced efficiency at work. The aim of this article is to present the notion of indirect costs, their importance in health technology assessment and the methods of calculation. The economic literature has been reviewed for the state of knowledge on indirect costs. Three methods of calculation are described: human capital method, friction cost method or health state valuation. Indirect costs in Western European countries can amount to more than half of total costs attributed to the illness and its treatment. In the literature there is no consensus regarding the proper method of indirect costs calculation. It is necessary to conduct further theoretical and empirical research in the area of indirect costs and enhance discussion among Polish pharmacoeconomists.

  17. Life cycle assessment of biogas upgrading technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Starr, Katherine; Gabarrell, Xavier; Villalba, Gara; Talens, Laura; Lombardi, Lidia

    2012-05-01

    This article evaluates the life cycle assessment (LCA) of three biogas upgrading technologies. An in-depth study and evaluation was conducted on high pressure water scrubbing (HPWS), as well as alkaline with regeneration (AwR) and bottom ash upgrading (BABIU), which additionally offer carbon storage. AwR and BABIU are two novel technologies that utilize waste from municipal solid waste incinerators - namely bottom ash (BA) and air pollution control residues (APC) - and are able to store CO(2) from biogas through accelerated carbonation processes. These are compared to high pressure water scrubbing (HPWS) which is a widely used technology in Europe. The AwR uses an alkaline solution to remove the CO(2) and then the solution - rich in carbonate and bicarbonate ions - is regenerated through carbonation of APC. The BABIU process directly exposes the gas to the BA to remove and immediately store the CO(2), again by carbonation. It was determined that the AwR process had an 84% higher impact in all LCA categories largely due to the energy intensive production of the alkaline reactants. The BABIU process had the lowest impact in most categories even when compared to five other CO(2) capture technologies on the market. AwR and BABIU have a particularly low impact in the global warming potential category as a result of the immediate storage of the CO(2). For AwR, it was determined that using NaOH instead of KOH improves its environmental performance by 34%. For the BABIU process the use of renewable energies would improve its impact since accounts for 55% of the impact. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. A seamless global hydrological monitoring and forecasting system for water resources assessment and hydrological hazard early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheffield, Justin; He, Xiaogang; Wood, Eric; Pan, Ming; Wanders, Niko; Zhan, Wang; Peng, Liqing

    2017-04-01

    Sustainable management of water resources and mitigation of the impacts of hydrological hazards are becoming ever more important at large scales because of inter-basin, inter-country and inter-continental connections in water dependent sectors. These include water resources management, food production, and energy production, whose needs must be weighed against the water needs of ecosystems and preservation of water resources for future generations. The strains on these connections are likely to increase with climate change and increasing demand from burgeoning populations and rapid development, with potential for conflict over water. At the same time, network connections may provide opportunities to alleviate pressures on water availability through more efficient use of resources such as trade in water dependent goods. A key constraint on understanding, monitoring and identifying solutions to increasing competition for water resources and hazard risk is the availability of hydrological data for monitoring and forecasting water resources and hazards. We present a global online system that provides continuous and consistent water products across time scales, from the historic instrumental period, to real-time monitoring, short-term and seasonal forecasts, and climate change projections. The system is intended to provide data and tools for analysis of historic hydrological variability and trends, water resources assessment, monitoring of evolving hazards and forecasts for early warning, and climate change scale projections of changes in water availability and extreme events. The system is particular useful for scientists and stakeholders interested in regions with less available in-situ data, and where forecasts have the potential to help decision making. The system is built on a database of high-resolution climate data from 1950 to present that merges available observational records with bias-corrected reanalysis and satellite data, which then drives a coupled land

  19. Are Lipases Still Important Biocatalysts? A Study of Scientific Publications and Patents for Technological Forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daiha, Karina de Godoy; Angeli, Renata; de Oliveira, Sabrina Dias; Almeida, Rodrigo Volcan

    2015-01-01

    The great potential of lipases is known since 1930 when the work of J. B. S. Haldane was published. After eighty-five years of studies and developments, are lipases still important biocatalysts? For answering this question the present work investigated the technological development of four important industrial sectors where lipases are applied: production of detergent formulations; organic synthesis, focusing on kinetic resolution, production of biodiesel, and production of food and feed products. The analysis was made based on research publications and patent applications, working as scientific and technological indicators, respectively. Their evolution, interaction, the major players of each sector and the main subject matters disclosed in patent documents were discussed. Applying the concept of technology life cycle, S-curves were built by plotting cumulative patent data over time to monitor the attractiveness of each technology for investment. The results lead to a conclusion that the use of lipases as biocatalysts is still a relevant topic for the industrial sector, but developments are still needed for lipase biocatalysis to reach its full potential, which are expected to be achieved within the third, and present, wave of biocatalysis.

  20. Are Lipases Still Important Biocatalysts? A Study of Scientific Publications and Patents for Technological Forecasting.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karina de Godoy Daiha

    Full Text Available The great potential of lipases is known since 1930 when the work of J. B. S. Haldane was published. After eighty-five years of studies and developments, are lipases still important biocatalysts? For answering this question the present work investigated the technological development of four important industrial sectors where lipases are applied: production of detergent formulations; organic synthesis, focusing on kinetic resolution, production of biodiesel, and production of food and feed products. The analysis was made based on research publications and patent applications, working as scientific and technological indicators, respectively. Their evolution, interaction, the major players of each sector and the main subject matters disclosed in patent documents were discussed. Applying the concept of technology life cycle, S-curves were built by plotting cumulative patent data over time to monitor the attractiveness of each technology for investment. The results lead to a conclusion that the use of lipases as biocatalysts is still a relevant topic for the industrial sector, but developments are still needed for lipase biocatalysis to reach its full potential, which are expected to be achieved within the third, and present, wave of biocatalysis.

  1. Forecast Forecasts the Trend

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    The latest release of "2009 China Luxury Forecast" shows that while the financial crisis is leading a general decline in demand for luxury brands in Europe,America and Japan,the global economic downturn has had limited impact on Chinese luxury consumption and that there is widespread confidence in the future among Chinese luxury consumers.

  2. Forecast Forecasts the Trend

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Ting

    2009-01-01

    @@ The latest release of "2009 China Luxury Forecast" shows that while the financial crisis is leading a general decline in demand for luxury brands in Europe,America and Japan,the global economic downturn has had limited impact on Chinese luxury consumption and that there is widespread confidence in the future among Chinese luxury consumers.

  3. Assessment of the importance of the current-wave coupling in the shelf ocean forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Jordà

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available The effects of wave-current interactions on shelf ocean forecasts is investigated in the framework of the MFSTEP (Mediterranean Forecasting System Project Towards Enviromental Predictions project. A one way sequential coupling approach is adopted to link the wave model (WAM to the circulation model (SYMPHONIE. The coupling of waves and currents has been done considering four main processes: wave refraction due to currents, surface wind drag and bo€ttom drag modifications due to waves, and the wave induced mass flux. The coupled modelling system is implemented in the southern Catalan shelf (NW Mediterranean, a region with characteristics similar to most of the Mediterranean shelves. The sensitivity experiments are run in a typical operational configuration. The wave refraction by currents seems to be not very relevant in a microtidal context such as the western Mediterranean. The main effect of waves on current forecasts is through the modification of the wind drag. The Stokes drift also plays a significant role due to its spatial and temporal characteristics. Finally, the enhanced bottom friction is just noticeable in the inner shelf.

  4. Assessment of the importance of the current-wave coupling in the shelf ocean forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Jordà

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available The effects of wave-current interactions on shelf ocean forecasts is investigated in the framework of the MFSTEP (Mediterranean Forecasting System Project Towards Enviromental Predictions project. A one way sequential coupling approach is adopted to link the wave model (WAM to the circulation model (SYMPHONIE. The coupling of waves and currents has been done considering four main processes: wave refraction due to currents, surface wind drag and bottom drag modifications due to waves, and the wave induced mass flux. The coupled modelling system is implemented in the southern Catalan shelf (NW Mediterranean, a region with characteristics similar to most of the Mediterranean shelves. The sensitivity experiments are run in a typical operational configuration. The wave refraction by currents seems to be not very relevant in a microtidal context such as the western Mediterranean. The main effect of waves on current forecasts is through the modification of the wind drag. The Stokes drift also plays a significant role due to its spatial and temporal characteristics. Finally, the enhanced bottom friction is just noticeable in the inner shelf.

  5. Assessment of Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Initial Conditions on Coupled Model Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Intrieri, J. M.; Solomon, A.; Persson, O. P. G.; Capotondi, A.; LaFontaine, F.; Jedlovec, G.

    2016-12-01

    We present weather-scale (0-10 day) sea ice forecast validation and skill results from an experimental coupled ice-ocean-atmosphere model during the fall freeze-up periods for 2015 and 2016. The model is a mesoscale, coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean mixed-layer model, termed RASM-ESRL, that was developed from the larger-scale Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) architecture. The atmospheric component of RASM-ESRL consists of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, the sea-ice component is the Los Alamos CICE model, and the ocean model is POP. Experimental 5-day forecasts were run daily with RASM-ESRL from July through mid-November in 2015 and 2016. Our project focuses on how the modeled sea ice evolution compares to observed physical processes including atmospheric forcing of sea ice movement, melt, and freeze-up through energy fluxes. Model hindcast output is validated against buoy observations, satellite measurements, and concurrent in situ flux observations made from the R/V Sikuliaq in the fall of 2015. Model skill in predicting atmospheric state variables, wind and boundary layer structures, synoptic features, cloud microphysical and ocean properties will be discussed. We will show results of using different initializations of ocean sea surface temperature and sea ice extent and the impacts on sea ice edge prediction.

  6. Drug delivery system innovation and Health Technology Assessment: Upgrading from Clinical to Technological Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panzitta, Michele; Bruno, Giorgio; Giovagnoli, Stefano; Mendicino, Francesca R; Ricci, Maurizio

    2015-11-30

    Health Technology Assessment (HTA) is a multidisciplinary health political instrument that evaluates the consequences, mainly clinical and economical, of a health care technology; the HTA aim is to produce and spread information on scientific and technological innovation for health political decision making process. Drug delivery systems (DDS), such as nanocarriers, are technologically complex but they have pivotal relevance in therapeutic innovation. The HTA process, as commonly applied to conventional drug evaluation, should upgrade to a full pharmaceutical assessment, considering the DDS complexity. This is useful to study more in depth the clinical outcome and to broaden its critical assessment toward pharmaceutical issues affecting the patient and not measured by the current clinical evidence approach. We draw out the expertise necessary to perform the pharmaceutical assessment and we propose a format to evaluate the DDS technological topics such as formulation and mechanism of action, physicochemical characteristics, manufacturing process. We integrated the above-mentioned three points in the Evidence Based Medicine approach, which is data source for any HTA process. In this regard, the introduction of a Pharmaceutics Expert figure in the HTA could be fundamental to grant a more detailed evaluation of medicine product characteristics and performances and to help optimizing DDS features to overcome R&D drawbacks. Some aspects of product development, such as manufacturing processes, should be part of the HTA as innovative manufacturing processes allow new products to reach more effectively patient bedside. HTA so upgraded may encourage resource allocating payers to invest in innovative technologies and providers to focus on innovative material properties and manufacturing processes, thus contributing to bring more medicines in therapy in a sustainable manner.

  7. Technology in Schools: Suggestions, Tools and Guidelines for Assessing Technology in Elementary and Secondary Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogle, Tom; Branch, Morgan; Canada, Bethann; Christmas, Oren; Clement, John; Fillion, Judith; Goddard, Ed; Loudat, N. Blair; Purwin, Tom; Rogers, Andy; Schmitt, Carl; Vinson, Mike

    This handbook is intended to facilitate the assessment of technology used to support elementary and secondary education in the United States. It is designed to help decision makers and technology users prepare, collect and assess information about whether and how technology is being used in their school systems. To make assessments that will be…

  8. What Do They Understand? Using Technology to Facilitate Formative Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitten, Carolyn; Jacobbe, Tim; Jacobbe, Elizabeth

    2017-01-01

    Formative assessment is so important to inform teachers' planning. A discussion of the benefits of using technology to facilitate formative assessment explains how four primary school teachers adopted three different apps to make their formative assessment more meaningful and useful.

  9. Technology-Based Classroom Assessments: Alternatives to Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salend, Spencer J.

    2009-01-01

    Although many teachers are using new technologies to differentiate instruction and administer tests, educators are also employing a range of technology-based resources and strategies to implement a variety of classroom assessments as alternatives to standardized and teacher-made testing. Technology-based classroom assessments focus on the use of…

  10. Technology-Based Classroom Assessments: Alternatives to Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salend, Spencer J.

    2009-01-01

    Although many teachers are using new technologies to differentiate instruction and administer tests, educators are also employing a range of technology-based resources and strategies to implement a variety of classroom assessments as alternatives to standardized and teacher-made testing. Technology-based classroom assessments focus on the use of…

  11. 75 FR 79354 - Assessment Technology Standards Request for Information (RFI)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-20

    ..., virtual worlds, mobile devices, and simulations. 3.2.28 Accessibility. How do technology standards ensure... Assessment Technology Standards Request for Information (RFI) AGENCY: Office of Innovation and Improvement, U... pertaining to assessment technology standards. SUMMARY: The purpose of this RFI is to collect...

  12. Assessing various approaches for flash flood forecasting in the Yzeron periurban catchment (150 km2) south-east Lyon, France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braud, Isabelle; Breil, Pascal; Javelle, Pierre; Pejakovic, Nikola; Guérin, Stéphane

    2017-04-01

    The Yzeron periurban catchment (150 km2) is prone to flash floods leading to overflow in the downstream part of the catchment. A prevention and management plan has been approved and the set-up of a flood forecasting system is planned. The present study presents a comparison of several solutions for flood forecasting in the catchment. It is based on an extensive data collection (rain gauges, radar/rain gauge reanalyses, discharge and water level data) from this experimental catchment. A set of rainfall-runoff events leading to floods (problematic and non-problematic floods) was extracted and formed the basis for the definition of a first forecasting method. It is based on data analysis and the identification of explaining factors amongst the following: rainfall amount, intensity, antecedent rainfall, initial discharge. Several statistical methods including Factorial Analysis of Mixed Data and Classification and Regression Tree were used for this purpose. They showed that several classes of problematic floods can be identified. The first one is related to wet conditions characterized with high initial discharge and antecedent rainfall. The second class is driven by rainfall amount, initial discharge and rainfall intensity. Thresholds of these variables can be identified to provide a first warning. The second forecasting method assessed in the study is the system that will be operational in France in 2017, based on the AIGA method (Javelle et al., 2016). For this purpose, 18-year discharge simulation using the hydrological model of the AIGA method, forced using radar/rain gauges reanalysis were available at 44 locations within the catchment. The dates for which quantiles of a given return period were overtopped were identified and compared with the list of problematic events. The AIGA method was found relevant in identifying the most problematic events, but the lead time needs further investigation in order to assess the usefulness for population warning. References

  13. The Forecasting of 3G Market in India Based on Revised Technology Acceptance Model

    CERN Document Server

    Singh, Sudha; Singh, M K; Singh, Sujeet Kumar; 10.5121/ijngn.2010.2206

    2010-01-01

    3G, processor of 2G services, is a family of standards for mobile telecommunications defined by the International Telecommunication Union [1]. 3G services include wide-area wireless voice telephone, video calls, and wireless data, all in a mobile environment. It allows simultaneous use of speech and data services and higher data rates.3G is defined to facilitate growth, increased bandwidth and support more diverse applications. The focus of this study is to examine the factors affecting the adoption of 3G services among Indian people. The study adopts the revised Technology Acceptance Model by adding five antecedents-perceived risks, cost of adoption, perceived service quality, subjective norms, and perceived lack of knowledge. Data have collected from more than 400 school/college/Institution students & employees of various Government/Private sectors using interviews & various convenience sampling procedures and analyzed using MS excel and MATLAB. Result shows that perceived usefulness has the most si...

  14. An Assessment of Interactive Graphics Processing in Short-Range Terminal Weather Forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1984-01-18

    hlei ght Ansi lsis for 1200 GMIT’, :3 F’ebrushy 1983 7 - A(,. Gene rstl Wesit her, Si? usition for-’\\ MV 1: (si se No. It (si) Sur-fsmre *Pressure...IT, 1; J irruzi ry 19 83 77 A8. Gene ruil Wesit her. Sirui t ion for. IMFL Case No. 18: (A d Sirfswe Pr-essure An; vs is for- 16iGO GM’T,. 2:3 1’ebrust...is a "menu-driven interaictive sYsteni designed to ingest individual forecasts into a data file through the use of fornratted interrogation

  15. 风电预测技术及其性能评价综述%A Review of the Wind Power Forecasting Technology and Its Performance Evaluation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郑婷婷; 王海霞; 李卫东

    2013-01-01

      随着入网风电比例的增加,风电预测已成为保证电网安全经济运行的必要技术。归纳了风电预测的概念与分类,综述了实用风电预测系统和理论研究的最新进展,尤其是关于风电预测技术的性能评价以及监督考核措施。提出了几点未来工作的思路,为风电预测相关研究提供参考。%With the proportion growth of wind power integrated into the power system, wind power forecasting has become an indispensable technology to ensure the safe and economical operation of the system. Summarizing the concepts and classification of wind power forecasting, this paper does a review on the development of practical application and theoretical study of wind power forecasting system, especially about its performance evaluation and supervision measures. Finally, some challenges and future works are put forward as a reference for the relevant study of wind power forecasting.

  16. Interactions of physical, chemical, and biological weather calling for an integrated approach to assessment, forecasting, and communication of air quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Thomas; Kukkonen, Jaakko; Dahl, Aslög; Bossioli, Elissavet; Baklanov, Alexander; Vik, Aasmund Fahre; Agnew, Paul; Karatzas, Kostas D; Sofiev, Mikhail

    2012-12-01

    This article reviews interactions and health impacts of physical, chemical, and biological weather. Interactions and synergistic effects between the three types of weather call for integrated assessment, forecasting, and communication of air quality. Today's air quality legislation falls short of addressing air quality degradation by biological weather, despite increasing evidence for the feasibility of both mitigation and adaptation policy options. In comparison with the existing capabilities for physical and chemical weather, the monitoring of biological weather is lacking stable operational agreements and resources. Furthermore, integrated effects of physical, chemical, and biological weather suggest a critical review of air quality management practices. Additional research is required to improve the coupled modeling of physical, chemical, and biological weather as well as the assessment and communication of integrated air quality. Findings from several recent COST Actions underline the importance of an increased dialog between scientists from the fields of meteorology, air quality, aerobiology, health, and policy makers.

  17. Assessing nano cellulose developments using science and technology indicators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Milanez, Douglas Henrique; Amaral, Roniberto Morato do; Faria, Leandro Innocentini Lopes de; Gregolin, Jose Angelo Rodrigues, E-mail: douglasmilanez@yahoo.com.br [Universidade Federal de Sao Carlos (UFSCar), SP (Brazil). Nucleo de Informacao Tecnologica em Materiais. Dept. de Engenharia de Materiais

    2013-11-01

    This research aims to examine scientific and technological trends of developments in nano cellulose based on scientometric and patent indicators obtained from the Science Citation Index and Derwent Innovations Index in 2001-2010. The overall nano cellulose activity indicators were compared to nanotechnology and other selected nano materials. Scientific and technological future developments in nano cellulose were forecasted using extrapolation growth curves and the main countries were also mapped. The results showed that nano cellulose publications and patent documents have increased rapidly over the last five years with an average growth rate higher than that of nanotechnology and fullerene. The USA, Japan, France, Sweden and Finland all played a significant role in nano cellulose development and the extrapolation growth curves suggested that nano cellulose scientific and technological activities are still emerging. Finally, the evidence from this study recommends monitoring nano cellulose S and T advances in the coming years. (author)

  18. Assessing nanocellulose developments using science and technology indicators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douglas Henrique Milanez

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This research aims to examine scientific and technological trends of developments in nanocellulose based on scientometric and patent indicators obtained from the Science Citation Index and Derwent Innovations Index in 2001-2010. The overall nanocellulose activity indicators were compared to nanotechnology and other selected nanomaterials. Scientific and technological future developments in nanocellulose were forecasted using extrapolation growth curves and the main countries were also mapped. The results showed that nanocellulose publications and patent documents have increased rapidly over the last five years with an average growth rate higher than that of nanotechnology and fullerene. The USA, Japan, France, Sweden and Finland all played a significant role in nanocellulose development and the extrapolation growth curves suggested that nanocellulose scientific and technological activities are still emerging. Finally, the evidence from this study recommends monitoring nanocellulose S&T advances in the coming years.

  19. Assessing the Impact of Observations on Numerical Weather Forecasts Using the Adjoint Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelaro, Ronald

    2012-01-01

    The adjoint of a data assimilation system provides a flexible and efficient tool for estimating observation impacts on short-range weather forecasts. The impacts of any or all observations can be estimated simultaneously based on a single execution of the adjoint system. The results can be easily aggregated according to data type, location, channel, etc., making this technique especially attractive for examining the impacts of new hyper-spectral satellite instruments and for conducting regular, even near-real time, monitoring of the entire observing system. This talk provides a general overview of the adjoint method, including the theoretical basis and practical implementation of the technique. Results are presented from the adjoint-based observation impact monitoring tool in NASA's GEOS-5 global atmospheric data assimilation and forecast system. When performed in conjunction with standard observing system experiments (OSEs), the adjoint results reveal both redundancies and dependencies between observing system impacts as observations are added or removed from the assimilation system. Understanding these dependencies may be important for optimizing the use of the current observational network and defining requirements for future observing systems

  20. Assessing the impact of new technology on complex sociotechnical systems

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Oosthuizen, R

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available African Journal of Industrial Engineering Month Year Vol __(_) pp 1-3 ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF NEW TECHNOLOGY ON COMPLEX SOCIOTECHNICAL SYSTEMS R. Oosthuizen & L. Pretorius Department of Engineering and Technology Management University of Pretoria...

  1. Dietary assessment in Africa: Integration with innovative technology ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dietary assessment in Africa: Integration with innovative technology. ... African Journal of Food, Agriculture, Nutrition and Development ... an opportunity for exploring the benefits and general acceptance of using technology to improve health.

  2. Space Launch System Upper Stage Technology Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holladay, Jon; Hampton, Bryan; Monk, Timothy

    2014-01-01

    discussed in light of the various missions. For each mission there are several trajectory options and each will be discussed in terms of delta-v required and transit duration. Each propulsion system will be modeled, sized, and judged based on their applicability to the whole range of beyond LEO missions. Criteria for scoring will include the resulting dry mass of the stage, resulting propellant required, time to destination, and an assessment of key enabling technologies. In addition to the larger metrics, this paper will present the results of several coupled sensitivity studies. The ultimate goals of these tools and studies are to provide NASA with the most mass-, technology-, and cost-effective in-space stage for its future exploration missions.

  3. Impacts of Amazonia biomass burning aerosols assessed from short-range weather forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. R. Kolusu

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The direct radiative impacts of biomass burning aerosols (BBA on meteorology are investigated using short-range forecasts from the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM over South America during the South American Biomass Burning Analysis (SAMBBA. The impacts are evaluated using a set of three simulations: (i no aerosols, (ii with monthly mean aerosol climatologies and (iii with prognostic aerosols modelled using the Coupled Large-scale Aerosol Simulator for Studies In Climate (CLASSIC scheme. Comparison with observations show that the prognostic CLASSIC scheme provides the best representation of BBA. The impacts of BBA are quantified over central and southern Amazonia from the first and second day of 2-day forecasts during 14 September–3 October 2012. On average, during the first day of the forecast, including prognostic BBA reduces the clear-sky net radiation at the surface by 15 ± 1 W m−2 and reduces net top-of-atmosphere (TOA radiation by 8 ± 1 W m−2, with a direct atmospheric warming of 7 ± 1 W m−2. BBA-induced reductions in all-sky radiation are smaller in magnitude: 9.0 ± 1 W m−2 at the surface and 4.0 ± 1 W m−2 at TOA. In this modelling study the BBA therefore exert an overall cooling influence on the Earth–atmosphere system, although some levels of the atmosphere are directly warmed by the absorption of solar radiation. Due to the reduction of net radiative flux at the surface, the mean 2 m air temperature is reduced by around 0.1 ± 0.02 °C. The BBA also cools the boundary layer (BL but warms air above by around 0.2 °C due to the absorption of shortwave radiation. The overall impact is to reduce the BL depth by around 19 ± 8 m. These differences in heating lead to a more anticyclonic circulation at 700 hPa, with winds changing by around 0.6 m s−1. Inclusion of climatological or prognostic BBA in the MetUM makes a small but significant improvement in forecasts of temperature and relative humidity, but improvements were

  4. Forecasting Skill

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-01-01

    indicated that forecasting experience has little relationship to forecasting performance. In the latter three studies, neophyte forecasters became... Europe . Within a few months after a new commander was assigned, this unit’s performance rose to first place in the theater and remained there

  5. DoD Current State for Software Technology Readiness Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    DoD Current State for Software Technology Readiness Assessments Systems & Software Technology Conference April 2010 Cynthia Dion-Schwarz, Ph.D...DoD Current State for Software Technology Readiness Assessments 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d...public release; distribution unlimited 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES Presented at the 22nd Systems and Software Technology Conference (SSTC), 26-29 April

  6. Expanding the applicability of Heallth Technology Assessments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Draborg, Eva; Hansen, Helle Ploug

    2012-01-01

    external validity and the effectiveness of a technology in normal daily practice. SR and HTAs favors internal valid trials and thereby proofs of possible cause-effect relationship between a technology and outcomes but at the expense of the wider perspectives of a technology. HTA have a policy...

  7. Assessment of Ga2O3 technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-09-15

    architecture [60]. ....................................................................... 10 Figure 5: Photograph of 4-inch diameter Ga2O3 wafer...breakdown voltages can provide orders of magnitude reduction in system size, cost and weight. Figure 4: A More-Electric Aircraft (MEA) architecture [60...Technology base is narrowly located in Japan . Mainstream technology. Czochralski • Mature technology base. • Crucible-free crystal growth

  8. History of healthcare technology assessment in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hisashige, Akinori

    2009-07-01

    There has been a rapid growth of healthcare technology assessment (HTA) activities among health service researchers and physicians in Japan in the younger generation since the mid-1980s. HTA has become visible since the Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare (MHLW) set up the several committees related to HTA in the late 1990s. The MHLW had to participate in regulatory and administrative reform, coping with the serious economic stagnation since 1991, following the economic recession in the 1980s. However, HTA has not been developed as expected. The most important failure is that the application of HTA to health policy has been neglected by the MHLW. Only application to clinical practice has been implemented by developing evidence-based clinical practice guidelines. The MHLW had the main aim of containing costs by reducing excess or useless healthcare services through guidelines, rather than to implement a radical reform. Without a central organization for HTA, several researchers have still continued to do HTA studies, but most researchers and physicians promoting HTA have been moved into diverse related areas. Ultimately, increasing efficiency may be the only way of reconciling rising demands for health care with public financing constraints. Therefore, the reconsideration and reorganization of HTA, which covers not only healthcare services but also the healthcare system as a whole, is becoming an urgent matter for healthcare reform.

  9. Life cycle assessment of emerging technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Valsasina, Lucia; Pizzol, Massimo; Smetana, Sergiy;

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Milk is becoming a key food commodity as population grows and demand increases. The treatment of milk to extend its shelf life is thus an important step in avoiding losses and optimizing resource use. The drawbacks of the most common treatments for shelf stable milk are the loss of nutri......Abstract Milk is becoming a key food commodity as population grows and demand increases. The treatment of milk to extend its shelf life is thus an important step in avoiding losses and optimizing resource use. The drawbacks of the most common treatments for shelf stable milk are the loss...... shelf life. A life cycle assessment was performed comparing this emerging technology to the common thermal treatment: indirect ultra-high temperature sterilisation combined with non-aseptic homogenisation. The results show that high-pressure based processing has a lower environmental burden compared...... to the high-temperature based processing, already at pilot-scale, and this difference is primarily due to the lower electricity consumption. Additionally, upscaling considerations were made using power laws and scenario analysis to simulate future full-scale applications of UHPH. The upscaling shows...

  10. Assimilation of Deformation Data for Eruption Forecasting: Potentiality Assessment Based on Synthetic Cases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Grace Bato

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In monitoring active volcanoes, the magma overpressure is one of the key parameters used in forecasting volcanic eruptions. This parameter can be inferred from the ground displacements measured on the Earth's surface by applying inversion techniques. However, in most studies, the huge amount of information about the behavior of the volcano contained in the temporal evolution of the deformation signal is not fully exploited by inversion. Our work focuses on developing a strategy in order to better forecast the magma overpressure using data assimilation. We take advantage of the increasing amount of geodetic data [i.e., Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS] recorded on volcanoes nowadays together with the wide-range availability of dynamical models that can provide better understanding about the volcano plumbing system. Here, we particularly built our strategy on the basis of the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF. We forecast the temporal behaviors of the magma overpressures and surface deformations by adopting a simple and generic two-magma chamber model and by using synthetic GNSS and/or InSAR data. We prove the ability of EnKF to both estimate the magma pressure evolution and constrain the characteristics of the deep volcanic system (i.e., reservoir size as well as basal magma inflow. High temporal frequency of observation is required to ensure the success of EnKF and the quality of assimilation is also improved by increasing the spatial density of observations in the near-field. We thus show that better results are obtained by combining a few GNSS temporal series of high temporal resolution with InSAR images characterized by a good spatial coverage. We also show that EnKF provides similar results to sophisticated Bayesian-based inversion while using the same dynamical model with the advantage of EnKF to potentially account for the temporal evolution of the uncertain model parameters. Our

  11. An assessment of oceanic variability in the NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xue, Yan; Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Kumar, Arun [Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Huang, Boyin; Wen, Caihong [Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Wyle Information System, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Behringer, David; Nadiga, Sudhir [Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States)

    2011-12-15

    At the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), a reanalysis of the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land over the period 1979-2009, referred to as the climate forecast system reanalysis (CFSR), was recently completed. The oceanic component of CFSR includes many advances: (a) the MOM4 ocean model with an interactive sea-ice, (b) the 6 h coupled model forecast as the first guess, (c) inclusion of the mean climatological river runoff, and (d) high spatial (0.5 x 0.5 ) and temporal (hourly) model outputs. Since the CFSR will be used by many in initializing/validating ocean models and climate research, the primary motivation of the paper is to inform the user community about the saline features in the CFSR ocean component, and how the ocean reanalysis compares with in situ observations and previous reanalysis. The net ocean surface heat flux of the CFSR has smaller biases compared to the sum of the latent and sensible heat fluxes from the objectively analyzed air-sea fluxes (OAFlux) and the shortwave and longwave radiation fluxes from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP-FD) than the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (R1) and NCEP/DOE reanalysis (R2) in both the tropics and extratropics. The ocean surface wind stress of the CFSR has smaller biases and higher correlation with the ERA40 produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts than the R1 and R2, particularly in the tropical Indian and Pacific Ocean. The CFSR also has smaller errors compared to the QuickSCAT climatology for September 1999 to October 2009 than the R1 and R2. However, the trade winds of the CFSR in the central equatorial Pacific are too strong prior to 1999, and become close to observations once the ATOVS radiance data are assimilated in late 1998. A sudden reduction of easterly wind bias is related to the sudden onset of a warm bias in the eastern equatorial Pacific temperature around 1998/1999. The sea surface height and top 300 m heat content (HC300) of

  12. Ideal point error for model assessment in data-driven river flow forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. W. Dawson

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available When analysing the performance of hydrological models in river forecasting, researchers use a number of diverse statistics. Although some statistics appear to be used more regularly in such analyses than others, there is a distinct lack of consistency in evaluation, making studies undertaken by different authors or performed at different locations difficult to compare in a meaningful manner. Moreover, even within individual reported case studies, substantial contradictions are found to occur between one measure of performance and another. In this paper we examine the ideal point error (IPE metric – a recently introduced measure of model performance that integrates a number of recognised metrics in a logical way. Having a single, integrated measure of performance is appealing as it should permit more straightforward model inter-comparisons. However, this is reliant on a transferrable standardisation of the individual metrics that are combined to form the IPE. This paper examines one potential option for standardisation: the use of naive model benchmarking.

  13. Earthquake forecast enrichment scores

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christine Smyth

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP is a global project aimed at testing earthquake forecast models in a fair environment. Various metrics are currently used to evaluate the submitted forecasts. However, the CSEP still lacks easily understandable metrics with which to rank the universal performance of the forecast models. In this research, we modify a well-known and respected metric from another statistical field, bioinformatics, to make it suitable for evaluating earthquake forecasts, such as those submitted to the CSEP initiative. The metric, originally called a gene-set enrichment score, is based on a Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic. Our modified metric assesses if, over a certain time period, the forecast values at locations where earthquakes have occurred are significantly increased compared to the values for all locations where earthquakes did not occur. Permutation testing allows for a significance value to be placed upon the score. Unlike the metrics currently employed by the CSEP, the score places no assumption on the distribution of earthquake occurrence nor requires an arbitrary reference forecast. In this research, we apply the modified metric to simulated data and real forecast data to show it is a powerful and robust technique, capable of ranking competing earthquake forecasts.

  14. Assessing DRAGON Measurements for Evaluation and Assimilation in the GEOS-5 Aerosol Forecasting System

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silva, A.; Colarco, P. R.; Darmenov, A.; Holben, B. N.

    2013-12-01

    GEOS-5 is the latest version of the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) earth system model. GEOS-5 contains components for atmospheric circulation and composition (including data assimilation), ocean circulation and biogeochemistry, and land surface processes. In addition to traditional meteorological parameters, GEOS-5 includes modules representing the atmospheric composition, most notably aerosols and tropospheric/stratospheric chemical constituents, taking explicit account of the impact of these constituents on the radiative processes of the atmosphere. The assimilation of Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) in GEOS-5 involves very careful cloud screening and homogenization of the observing system by means of a Neural Net scheme that translates MODIS radiances into AERONET calibrated AOD. These measurements are further quality controlled using an adaptive buddy check scheme, and assimilated using the Local Displacement Ensemble (LDE) methodology. The near real-time GEOS-5 aerosol forecasting system runs at a nominal 25km horizontal resolution with 72 vertical layers (top at ~85km). GEOS-5 is driven by daily biomass burning emissions derived from MODIS fire radiative power retrievals. In this talk we will utilize aerosol measurements from the Distributed Regional Aerosol Gridded Observation Networks (DRAGON) to evaluate the temporal and spatial distribution of aerosols in GEOS-5. While NRT assimilation of MODIS optical depth observations constrains the GEOS-5 aerosol distributions during satellite overpasses, the diurnal cycle, mixing state and optical properties are internally determined by the model parameterizations and require careful validation. By combining DRAGON with other in-situ and remotely sensed measurements from the DISCOVER-AQ and SEAC4RS field campaigns we will present a comprehensive evaluation of the GEOS-5 aerosol state, and examine the impact of assimilating the DRAGON measurements on the quality of the GEOS-5 analysis and forecasts

  15. Skill Assessment of An Hybrid Technique To Estimate Quantitative Precipitation Forecast For Galicia (nw Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lage, A.; Taboada, J. J.

    Precipitation is the most obvious of the weather elements in its effects on normal life. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) is generally used to produce quantitative precip- itation forecast (QPF) beyond the 1-3 h time frame. These models often fail to predict small-scale variations of rain because of spin-up problems and their coarse spatial and temporal resolution (Antolik, 2000). Moreover, there are some uncertainties about the behaviour of the NWP models in extreme situations (de Bruijn and Brandsma, 2000). Hybrid techniques, combining the benefits of NWP and statistical approaches in a flexible way, are very useful to achieve a good QPF. In this work, a new technique of QPF for Galicia (NW of Spain) is presented. This region has a percentage of rainy days per year greater than 50% with quantities that may cause floods, with human and economical damages. The technique is composed of a NWP model (ARPS) and a statistical downscaling process based on an automated classification scheme of at- mospheric circulation patterns for the Iberian Peninsula (J. Ribalaygua and R. Boren, 1995). Results show that QPF for Galicia is improved using this hybrid technique. [1] Antolik, M.S. 2000 "An Overview of the National Weather Service's centralized statistical quantitative precipitation forecasts". Journal of Hydrology, 239, pp:306- 337. [2] de Bruijn, E.I.F and T. Brandsma "Rainfall prediction for a flooding event in Ireland caused by the remnants of Hurricane Charley". Journal of Hydrology, 239, pp:148-161. [3] Ribalaygua, J. and Boren R. "Clasificación de patrones espaciales de precipitación diaria sobre la España Peninsular". Informes N 3 y 4 del Servicio de Análisis e Investigación del Clima. Instituto Nacional de Meteorología. Madrid. 53 pp.

  16. Further Discussion the Development on New Weather Forecasting Technology System%再论气象台天气预报技术新体系的发展

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    徐羹慧

    2012-01-01

    在前期对气象台天气预报技术发展的现状分析、发展趋势预测的基础上,从气象台天气预报技术的基本属性分析出发,进一步探讨气象台天气预报技术体系的基本框架和内容,并就推进技术发展的若干重要问题进行讨论。本文认为,如同“临床医学”一样,建筑在多种优秀成果基础上气象台天气预报技术的发展已自成体系,要象重视数值天气预报那样重视气象台预报技术体系的发展,发挥气象科技进步的综合效益,加快气象台一线预报服务水平的提高。%Based on the previous analysis upon the progress of weather forecasting system and the prediction of its developing tendency, the fundamental frame and content of weather forecasting technology system and several important issues regarding advancing technology were further discussed in this paper through analyzing the basic attribute of weather prediction skills. It was advocated that, just as "Clinical Medicine" ,the weather prediction technology founded upon various excellent researching outcomes has already had its own system. Just like numerical weather forecast ,the development of weather prediction technology system should be emphasized. Not only the benefit of the advanced meteorological science and technology should be exerted ,but also the improving process of weather prediction should be speeded up.

  17. The Status of Budget Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel W. Williams

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available This article examines the breadth of the current forecast literature as it relates to public budget making. It serves to provide summary information to decision-makers who otherwise do not have the resources to learn more than a small amount focused on much more narrowly defined areas of forecasting (such as the politics of forecast bias. Next, it serves those who perform forecasting related to budgeting by reviewing the current methods and practices commonly used in this domain. It also provides a ground level for future public budget forecasting research. Finally, this article identifies several areas in which the public forecasting literature needs additional development. Several of these areas, such as the effectiveness of nonregression-based forecasting techniques, are quite important to the majority of governments in the United States and other subnational jurisdictions, where budget offices are limited and resource investments in technology are scarce.

  18. Rapid Technology Assessment Framework for Land Logistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-01

    Economy, Environment, Politics SWOT Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats TRL Technology Readiness Level US United States WHO World Health...structures, processes • Contract management Capability Life -Cycle Management (in support of force modernisation and preparedness...commonly based on projections of the global meta-trends across the physical, social and technological environments. Such discussions are numerous

  19. Beyond checklists: toward an ethical-constructive technology assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kiran, Asle; Oudshoorn, Nelly E.J.; Verbeek, Peter P.C.C.

    2015-01-01

    While many technology assessments (TAs) formally conducted by TA organizations in Europe and the USA have examined the implications of new technologies for ‘quantifiable risks’ regarding safety, health or the environment, they have largely ignored the ethical implications of those technologies.

  20. Methodology of constructive technology assessment in health care

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Douma, Kirsten F.L.; Karsenberg, Kim; Hummel, Marjan J.M.; Bueno-de-Mesquita, Jolien M.; Harten, van Wim H.

    2007-01-01

    Objectives: Technologies in health care are evolving quickly, with new findings in the area of biotechnological and genetic research being published regularly. A health technology assessment (HTA) is often used to answer the question of whether the new technology should be implemented into clinical

  1. Decision Gate Process for Assessment of a Technology Development Portfolio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohli, Rajiv; Fishman, Julianna; Hyatt, Mark

    2012-01-01

    The NASA Dust Management Project (DMP) was established to provide technologies (to TRL 6 development level) required to address adverse effects of lunar dust to humans and to exploration systems and equipment, which will reduce life cycle cost and risk, and will increase the probability of sustainable and successful lunar missions. The technology portfolio of DMP consisted of different categories of technologies whose final product is either a technology solution in itself, or one that contributes toward a dust mitigation strategy for a particular application. A Decision Gate Process (DGP) was developed to assess and validate the achievement and priority of the dust mitigation technologies as the technologies progress through the development cycle. The DGP was part of continuous technology assessment and was a critical element of DMP risk management. At the core of the process were technology-specific criteria developed to measure the success of each DMP technology in attaining the technology readiness levels assigned to each decision gate. The DGP accounts for both categories of technologies and qualifies the technology progression from technology development tasks to application areas. The process provided opportunities to validate performance, as well as to identify non-performance in time to adjust resources and direction. This paper describes the overall philosophy of the DGP and the methodology for implementation for DMP, and describes the method for defining the technology evaluation criteria. The process is illustrated by example of an application to a specific DMP technology.

  2. Forecaster priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wetterhall, Fredrik; Pappenberger, Florian; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Cloke, Hannah; Thielen, Jutta

    2014-05-01

    Hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) have in recent years been increasingly used for the operational forecasting of floods by European hydrometeorological agencies. The most obvious advantage of HEPS is that more of the uncertainty in the modelling system can be assessed. In addition, ensemble prediction systems generally have better skill than deterministic systems both in the terms of the mean forecast performance and the potential forecasting of extreme events. Research efforts have so far mostly been devoted to the improvement of the physical and technical aspects of the model systems, such as increased resolution in time and space and better description of physical processes. Developments like these are certainly needed; however, in this paper we argue that there are other areas of HEPS that need urgent attention. This was also the result from a group exercise and a survey conducted to operational forecasters within the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) to identify the top priorities of improvement regarding their own system. They turned out to span a range of areas, the most popular being to include verification of an assessment of past forecast performance, a multi-model approach for hydrological modelling, to increase the forecast skill on the medium range (>3 days) and more focus on education and training on the interpretation of forecasts. In light of limited resources, we suggest a simple model to classify the identified priorities in terms of their cost and complexity to decide in which order to tackle them. This model is then used to create an action plan of short-, medium- and long-term research priorities with the ultimate goal of an optimal improvement of EFAS in particular and to spur the development of operational HEPS in general.

  3. New Modes of Constructive Technology Assessment for Developing Countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, David; Remmen, Arne

    . Technology assessment helps assess the potential positive or negative impacts following in the wake of introducing a new technology of any conceivable type. It has an overall philosophy of reducing the cost of learning in society’s handling of new technologies, anticipating impacts and feeding these insights...... in influencing technological change. In developing countries, technology assessment has received relatively little attention, but recent developments have expressed a ‘call-to-arms’ to tailor flexible approaches by ensuring the involvement of diverse stakeholders and citizens and continual learning among......An old piece of conventional wisdom warns against unsustainable ‘white elephants’ in any attempts at international transferal, adoption or development of technologies in developing countries. After more than half a century of failed attempts to introduce technologies in such settings mostly through...

  4. Assessments of emerging science and technologies: Mapping the landscape

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Forsberg, E.M.; Thorstensen, E.; Nielsen, R.O.; Bakker, de E.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents comparative work from the EST-Frame project on technology appraisal. It focuses on studies of 'advisory domains' (more or less distinct traditions for assessment of technologies, such as risk analysis, foresight and ethical assessments). The purpose of the study was to increase t

  5. Principles of sustainability science to assess alternative energy technologies

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Brent, AC

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available , adaptive capacity, and complexity of social-ecological systems to assess the potential of such technologies for increasing the carrying capacity and improving the resilience of social-ecological systems, or to assess the resilience of the technological...

  6. Forecasting consequences of accidental release: how reliable are current assessment models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rohwer, P.S.; Hoffman, F.O.; Miller, C.W.

    1983-01-01

    This paper focuses on uncertainties in model output used to assess accidents. We begin by reviewing the historical development of assessment models and the associated interest in uncertainties as these evolutionary processes occurred in the United States. This is followed by a description of the sources of uncertainties in assessment calculations. Types of models appropriate for assessment of accidents are identified. A summary of results from our analysis of uncertainty is provided in results obtained with current methodology for assessing routine and accidental radionuclide releases to the environment. We conclude with discussion of preferred procedures and suggested future directions to improve the state-of-the-art of radiological assessments.

  7. Assessment of simulation of radiation in NCEP Climate Forecasting System (CFS V2)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goswami, Tanmoy; Rao, Suryachandra A.; Hazra, Anupam; Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S.; Dhakate, Ashish; Salunke, Kiran; Mahapatra, Somnath

    2017-09-01

    The objective of this study is to identify and document the radiation biases in the latest National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP), Climate Forecasting System (CFSv2) and to investigate the probable reasons for these biases. This analysis is made over global and Indian domain under all-sky and clear-sky conditions. The impact of increasing the horizontal resolution of the atmospheric model on these biases is also investigated by comparing results of two different horizontal resolution versions of CFSv2 namely T126 and T382. The difference between the top of the atmosphere and surface energy imbalance in T126 (T382) is 3.49 (2.78) W/m2. This reduction of bias in the high resolution model is achieved due to lesser low cloud cover, resulting more surface insolation, and due to more latent heat fluxes at the surface. Compared to clear sky simulations, all sky simulations exhibit larger biases suggesting that the cloud covers are not simulated well in the model. The annual mean high level cloud cover is over estimated over the global as well as the Indian domain. This overestimation over the Indian domain is also present during JJAS. There is also evidence that both of the models have insufficient water vapour in their atmosphere. This study suggests that in order to improve the model's mean radiation climatology, simulation of clouds in the model also needs to be improved, and future model development activities should focus on this aspect.

  8. Technology assessment of PACS in Osaka University Hospital.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inamura, K; Satoh, K; Kondoh, H; Mori, Y; Kozuka, T

    1994-05-01

    This paper describes a methodology of PACS technology assessment and gives examples of the results of measurement of 24 items of PACS-related situations of image diagnosis systems in Osaka University Hospital before a PACS is installed. These data are to be compared with the data which will be measured after PACS is installed in the new Osaka University Hospital, in order to complete our technology assessment. We propose common variables, units, and conditions of measurement, in order to establish a standard method of data comparison between before and after PACS installation in hospitals at large. We designed our PACS taking technology assessment into account. We do not stop the technology assessment at the efficacy evaluation, because PACS must be more than a tool for radiological practice. We extend the technology assessment into the effectiveness evaluation, so that PACS is a part of radiological practice itself, and diagnostic accuracy, economy and efficiency are the results of PACS operation.

  9. Improving Software Guidance for Technology Readiness Assessments (TRA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-29

    Systems & Software Technology Conference Improving Software Guidance for Technology Readiness Assessments (TRA) 29 April 2010 Mike Nicol...APR 2010 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2010 to 00-00-2010 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Improving Software Guidance for Technology Readiness...Presented at the 22nd Systems and Software Technology Conference (SSTC), 26-29 April 2010, Salt Lake City, UT. 14. ABSTRACT 15. SUBJECT TERMS

  10. Assessing climate change mitigation technology interventions by international institutions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    de Coninck, Heleen; Puig, Daniel

    2015-01-01

    Accelerating the international use of climate mitigation technologies is key if effortsto curb climate change are to succeed, especially in developing countries, where weakdomestic technological innovation systems constrain the uptake of climate change mitigationtechnologies. Several...... intergovernmental agencies have set up specific programmes to supportthe diffusion of climate mitigation technologies. Using a simplified technological innovationsystem-based framework, this paper aims to systematically review these programmes, with thedual aim of assessing their collective success in promoting...

  11. Flood Foresight: A near-real time flood monitoring and forecasting tool for rapid and predictive flood impact assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Revilla-Romero, Beatriz; Shelton, Kay; Wood, Elizabeth; Berry, Robert; Bevington, John; Hankin, Barry; Lewis, Gavin; Gubbin, Andrew; Griffiths, Samuel; Barnard, Paul; Pinnell, Marc; Huyck, Charles

    2017-04-01

    The hours and days immediately after a major flood event are often chaotic and confusing, with first responders rushing to mobilise emergency responders, provide alleviation assistance and assess loss to assets of interest (e.g., population, buildings or utilities). Preparations in advance of a forthcoming event are becoming increasingly important; early warning systems have been demonstrated to be useful tools for decision markers. The extent of damage, human casualties and economic loss estimates can vary greatly during an event, and the timely availability of an accurate flood extent allows emergency response and resources to be optimised, reduces impacts, and helps prioritise recovery. In the insurance sector, for example, insurers are under pressure to respond in a proactive manner to claims rather than waiting for policyholders to report losses. Even though there is a great demand for flood inundation extents and severity information in different sectors, generating flood footprints for large areas from hydraulic models in real time remains a challenge. While such footprints can be produced in real time using remote sensing, weather conditions and sensor availability limit their ability to capture every single flood event across the globe. In this session, we will present Flood Foresight (www.floodforesight.com), an operational tool developed to meet the universal requirement for rapid geographic information, before, during and after major riverine flood events. The tool provides spatial data with which users can measure their current or predicted impact from an event - at building, basin, national or continental scales. Within Flood Foresight, the Screening component uses global rainfall predictions to provide a regional- to continental-scale view of heavy rainfall events up to a week in advance, alerting the user to potentially hazardous situations relevant to them. The Forecasting component enhances the predictive suite of tools by providing a local

  12. Assessment of technology generating institutions in biotechnology ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    STORAGESEVER

    2009-05-18

    May 18, 2009 ... biotechnology innovation system of South-Eastern. Nigeria. E. N. Ajani, M. C. ... Agricultural biotechnology provides new technological tools and aims to ..... constraints include poor fringe benefit to researchers ( x. = 2.90) ...

  13. Sustainability assessment of advanced wastewater treatment technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Høibye, Linda; Clauson-Kaas, Jes; Wenzel, Henrik

    2008-01-01

    with advanced oxidation. The technical assessment is based on 12 hazardous substances comprising heavy metals, organic pollutants, endocrine disruptors as well as pathogenic microorganisms. The environmental assessment is performed by life cycle assessment (LCA) comprising 9 of the specific hazardous substances...

  14. Challenges for Information Technology Supporting Educational Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, M.; Gibson, D.; Forkosh-Baruch, A.

    2013-01-01

    This article examines the scope for IT-enabled assessments to serve simultaneously both learners and the enterprise of education. The article proposes ways of combining frameworks that come from two different perspectives: 1) a conceptual approach to assessment design for computerized assessment based on evidence-centred design (ECD) and 2) a…

  15. Demand forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Gregor, Belčec

    2011-01-01

    Companies operate in an increasingly challenging environment that requires them to continuously improve all areas of the business process. Demand forecasting is one area in manufacturing companies where we can hope to gain great advantages. Improvements in forecasting can result in cost savings throughout the supply chain, improve the reliability of information and the quality of the service for our customers. In the company Danfoss Trata, d. o. o. we did not have a system for demand forecast...

  16. Review on early technology assessments of nanotechnologies in oncology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Retèl, Valesca P; Hummel, Marjan J M; van Harten, Wim H

    2009-12-01

    Nanotechnology is expected to play an increasingly important role in the diagnostics, prognostics, and management of targeted cancer treatments. While papers have described promising results for nanotechnology in experimental settings, the translation of fundamental research into clinical applications has yet to be widely adopted. In future, policy makers will need to anticipate new developments for clinical implementation and introduce technology assessments. Here we present an overview of the literature on the technology assessments that have already been undertaken on early stage nanotechnology in cancer care, with particular emphasis placed on clinical efficacy, efficiency, logistics, patient-related features and technology dynamics. Owing to the current stage of development of most nanotechnologies, we found only a limited number of publications describing the application of either Health Technology Assessment (HTA) or Constructive Technology Assessment (CTA). In spite of the promising conclusions of most papers concerning the benefits of clinical implementation, actual clinically relevant applications were rarely encountered, and so far only a few publications report application of systematic forms of technology assessment. Most articles consider aspects of environmental safety, regulation and ethics, often mentioning the need to investigate such issues more thoroughly. Evaluation of financial and organizational aspects is often missing. In order to obtain a realistic perspective on the translation and implementation process there is a need for a broad and systematic evaluation of nanotechnologies at early stages of development. Assessment methods taking technology dynamics into account, such as Constructive Technology Assessment (CTA) should be considered for evaluation purposes.

  17. Atmospheric Motion Vectors from INSAT-3D: Initial quality assessment and its impact on track forecast of cyclonic storm NANAUK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deb, S. K.; Kishtawal, C. M.; Kumar, Prashant; Kiran Kumar, A. S.; Pal, P. K.; Kaushik, Nitesh; Sangar, Ghansham

    2016-03-01

    The advanced Indian meteorological geostationary satellite INSAT-3D was launched on 26 July 2013 with an improved imager and an infrared sounder and is placed at 82°E over the Indian Ocean region. With the advancement in retrieval techniques of different atmospheric parameters and with improved imager data have enhanced the scope for better understanding of the different tropical atmospheric processes over this region. The retrieval techniques and accuracy of one such parameter, Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMV) has improved significantly with the availability of improved spatial resolution data along with more options of spectral channels in the INSAT-3D imager. The present work is mainly focused on providing brief descriptions of INSAT-3D data and AMV derivation processes using these data. It also discussed the initial quality assessment of INSAT-3D AMVs for a period of six months starting from 01 February 2014 to 31 July 2014 with other independent observations: i) Meteosat-7 AMVs available over this region, ii) in-situ radiosonde wind measurements, iii) cloud tracked winds from Multi-angle Imaging Spectro-Radiometer (MISR) and iv) numerical model analysis. It is observed from this study that the qualities of newly derived INSAT-3D AMVs are comparable with existing two versions of Meteosat-7 AMVs over this region. To demonstrate its initial application, INSAT-3D AMVs are assimilated in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and it is found that the assimilation of newly derived AMVs has helped in reduction of track forecast errors of the recent cyclonic storm NANAUK over the Arabian Sea. Though, the present study is limited to its application to one case study, however, it will provide some guidance to the operational agencies for implementation of this new AMV dataset for future applications in the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) over the south Asia region.

  18. Assessment of forecast indices over Sriharikota using ground-based microwave radiometer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pushpa Saroja, R.; Rajasekhar, M.; Papa Rao, G.; Rajeevan, M.; Bharathi, G.

    2016-05-01

    Continuous measurements of vertical profiles of thermodynamic variables are important for severe weather nowcasting & forecasting over a region instead of radiosonde observations which are available once or twice daily. Microwave Radiometer (MWR) provides high quality of thermodynamic (temperature, water vapor, and cloud liquid) soundings up to an altitude of 10 Kms in the clear and cloudy weather conditions except during heavy rainfall. Retrievals of MWR profiles are based on the intensity of the atmospheric radiation at selected frequencies (22-30 GHz) & (51-59 GHz) with high temporal and vertical resolution in the troposphere. The MWR used in the present study is TP/WVP-3166A, measures the intensity of radiation at 8 water vapor channels and 14 oxygen channels which is installed at Sriharikota in June. In this paper we analyzed the thermodynamic indices derived from MWR profiles during severe convective thunderstorms for Sriharikota region. MWR derived thermodynamic profiles are compared with radiosonde observations during rainy & non rainy days. MWR temperature profiles and vapor density profiles are well correlated with the observations with a cold bias of 1.5°C & 2.5°C and with a dry bias of 0.37 g/m3 & 0.04 g/m3respectively. For this we considered 10 thunderstorm cases from June to November 2014 analysed with indices K index, MDPI, CAPE, Windex, KO index, L index, S index, Showalter index, Total totals index, Vertical totals along with integrated liquid water and vapour density. MDPI, CAP index, Windex, Kindex, Lindex and convective temperature were best performed indices two hours prior to thunderstorm over SHAR region.

  19. The Contribution of Health Technology Assessment, Health Needs Assessment, and Health Impact Assessment to the Assessment and Translation of Technologies in the Field of Public Health Genomics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosenkotter, N.; Vondeling, H.; Blancquaert, I.

    2011-01-01

    or to identify infrastructural needs. HIA delivers information on the impact of technologies in a wider scope and promotes informed decision making. HTA, HNA and HIA provide a partly overlapping and partly unique set of methodologies and infrastructure for the translation and assessment of genomic health...... into the impact on public health and health care practice of those technologies that are actually introduced. This paper aims to give an overview of the major assessment instruments in public health [ health technology assessment (HTA), health needs assessment (HNA) and health impact assessment (HIA)] which could......The European Union has named genomics as one of the promising research fields for the development of new health technologies. Major concerns with regard to these fields are, on the one hand, the rather slow and limited translation of new knowledge and, on the other hand, missing insights...

  20. New Modes of Constructive Technology Assessment for Developing Countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, David; Remmen, Arne

    by a product or process in a developing country. On the other hand are those who design, develop and promote the technological solution. If the latter group is to follow the call for proactively taking in socio-cultural and user knowledge, what methods may be employed? This paper revisits the literature....... Technology assessment helps assess the potential positive or negative impacts following in the wake of introducing a new technology of any conceivable type. It has an overall philosophy of reducing the cost of learning in society’s handling of new technologies, anticipating impacts and feeding these insights...... universities, NGO’s, firms and users/citizens. In addressing this ‘call-to-arms’, this paper: ‐ Identifies how technology assessment principles may be brought into new decision-making arenas outside of its traditional application area of e.g. parliamentary governance systems. R evisits the technology...

  1. A Technology Assessment of Personal Computers. Vol. II: Personal Computer Technology, Users, and Uses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nilles, Jack M.

    This volume reports on the initial phase of a technology assessment of personal computers. First, technological developments that will influence the rate of diffusion of personal computer technology among the general populace are examined. Then the probable market for personal computers is estimated and analyzed on a functional basis, segregating…

  2. Technology Alignment and Portfolio Prioritization (TAPP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funaro, Gregory V.; Alexander, Reginald A.

    2015-01-01

    Technology Alignment and Portfolio Prioritization (TAPP) is a method being developed by the Advanced Concepts Office, at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. The TAPP method expands on current technology assessment methods by incorporating the technological structure underlying technology development, e.g., organizational structures and resources, institutional policy and strategy, and the factors that motivate technological change. This paper discusses the methods ACO is currently developing to better perform technology assessments while taking into consideration Strategic Alignment, Technology Forecasting, and Long Term Planning.

  3. Innovative and Alternative Technology Assessment Manual

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1980-02-01

    This four chapter, six appendix manual presents the procedures and methodology as well as the baseline costs and energy information necessary for the analysis and evaluation of innovative and alternative technology applications submitted for federal grant assistance under the innovative and alternative technology provisions of the Clean Water Act of 1977. The manual clarifies and interprets the intent of Congress and the Environmental Protection Agency in carrying out the mandates of the innovative and alternative provisions of the Clean Water Act of 1977. [DJE 2005

  4. LNG vehicle technology, economics, and safety assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powars, Charles A.; Moyer, Carl B.; Lowell, Douglas D.

    1994-02-01

    Liquid natural gas (LNG) is an attractive transportation fuel because of its high heating value and energy density (i.e., Btu/lb. and Btu/gal.), clean burning characteristics, relatively low cost ($/Btu), and domestic availability. This research evaluated LNG vehicle and refueling system technology, economics, and safety. Prior and current LNG vehicle projects were studied to identify needed technology improvements. Life-cycle cost analyses considered various LNG vehicle and fuel supply options. Safety records, standards, and analysis methods were reviewed. The LNG market niche is centrally fueled heavy-duty fleet vehicles with high fuel consumption. For these applications, fuel cost savings can amortize equipment capital costs.

  5. Biomedical Technology Assessment The 3Q Method

    CERN Document Server

    Weinfurt, Phillip

    2010-01-01

    Evaluating biomedical technology poses a significant challenge in light of the complexity and rate of introduction in today's healthcare delivery system. Successful evaluation requires an integration of clinical medicine, science, finance, and market analysis. Little guidance, however, exists for those who must conduct comprehensive technology evaluations. The 3Q Method meets these present day needs. The 3Q Method is organized around 3 key questions dealing with 1) clinical and scientific basis, 2) financial fit and 3) strategic and expertise fit. Both healthcare providers (e.g., hospitals) an

  6. 20 Years of Technology and Language Assessment in "Language Learning & Technology"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapelle, Carol A.; Voss, Erik

    2016-01-01

    This review article provides an analysis of the research from the last two decades on the theme of technology and second language assessment. Based on an examination of the assessment scholarship published in "Language Learning & Technology" since its launch in 1997, we analyzed the review articles, research articles, book reviews,…

  7. 20 Years of Technology and Language Assessment in "Language Learning & Technology"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapelle, Carol A.; Voss, Erik

    2016-01-01

    This review article provides an analysis of the research from the last two decades on the theme of technology and second language assessment. Based on an examination of the assessment scholarship published in "Language Learning & Technology" since its launch in 1997, we analyzed the review articles, research articles, book reviews,…

  8. Superconducting Technology Assessment (NSA, Office of Corporate Assessments)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Networking and Information Technology Research and Development, Executive Office of the President — The government, and particularly NSA, has a continuing need for ever-increasing computational power. The Agency is concerned about projected limitations of...

  9. Technology assessments in transportation: survey of recent literature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    LaBelle, S.J.

    1980-03-01

    A survey and an evaluation of recent studies of transportation systems done in a technology-assessment framework were undertaken as the basis for a detailed statement of work for a US Department of Energy technology assessment of transportation energy-conservation strategies. Several bibliographies were searched and numerous professionals in the field of technology assessment were contacted regarding current work. Detailed abstracts were prepared for studies judged to be sufficiently broad in coverage of impacts assessed, yet detailed in coverage of all or part of the nation's transportation systems. Some studies were rich in data but not comprehensive in their analytical approach; brief abstracts were prepared for these. An explanation of the criteria used to screen the studies, as well as abstracts of 37 reports, are provided in this compendium of transportation-technology-assessment literature.

  10. Fostering and Assessing Creativity in Technology Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buelin-Biesecker, Jennifer Katherine

    2012-01-01

    This study compared the creative outcomes in student work resulting from two pedagogical approaches to creative problem solving activities. A secondary goal was to validate the Consensual Assessment Technique (CAT) as a means of assessing creativity. Linear models for problem solving and design processes serve as the current paradigm in classroom…

  11. Assessment of Technology for Information Services Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    1979-08-01

    organi- zation, and external services (external timesharing and turnkey computer systems). Areas of impact are specific to the organization. The...timesharing vendors, changing services turnkey systems - potential and problems impacts and trends o distributed data processing technology needed...includes credit cards, automobile loans, personal and real estate loans, and leasing . Service improvements would aim at expediting credit review, payment

  12. Using technology in assessing integrated science and mathematics learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berlin, Donna F.; White, Arthur L.

    1995-03-01

    Drawing from current models, research, and science and mathematics education reform documents, this article first defines and/or delimits three broad domains of education: integrated school science and mathematics, assessment, and technology. Based upon this three-tiered discussion, a list of characteristics is then distilled to guide in the development of assessment for integrated school science and mathematics using technology. Two integrated school science and mathematics activities are provided to illustrate the alignment of instruction and assessment and the systematic integration of technology into both.

  13. Systems Engineering Technology Readiness Assessment of Hybrid-Electric Technologies for Tactical Wheeled Vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-01

    Department of Energy. 2007. Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. “Freedom CAR and vehicle technology program; Plug-In hybrid- electric vehicle R&D Plan...ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY READINESS ASSESSMENT OF HYBRID- ELECTRIC TECHNOLOGIES FOR TACTICAL WHEELED VEHICLES by Eddie E. McCown September 2014 Thesis...HYBRID- ELECTRIC TECHNOLOGIES FOR TACTICAL WHEELED VEHICLES 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Eddie E. McCown 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND

  14. The conceptual and practical challenges to technology categorisation in the preparation of technology needs assessments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nygaard, Ivan; Hansen, Ulrich Elmer

    2015-01-01

    The strong focus in climate negotiations on the transfer and diffusion of technologies as ameans to mitigate and adapt to climate change has entailed various programs to promote the transfer and diffusion of climate technologies, including the Technology Needs Assessment project (TNA). Despite...... a framework for categorizing technologies according to the types of markets and non-markets in which they are diffused. While the framework has contributed to a higher degree of ‘market literacy’ among national stakeholders, four challenges in categorizing technologies have been identified: i) technologies...

  15. History of the international societies in health technology assessment: International Society for Technology Assessment in Health Care and Health Technology Assessment International.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banta, David; Jonsson, Egon; Childs, Paul

    2009-07-01

    The International Society for Technology Assessment in Health Care (ISTAHC) was formed in 1985. It grew out of the increasing awareness of the international dimensions of health technology assessment (HTA) and the need for new communication methods at the international level. The main function of ISTAHC was to present an annual conference, which gradually grew in size, and also to generally improve in quality from to year. ISTAHC overextended itself financially early in the first decade of the 2000s and had to cease its existence. A new society, Health Technology Assessment international (HTAi), based on many of the same ideas and people, grew up beginning in the year 2003. The two societies have played a large role in making the field of HTA visible to people around the world and providing a forum for discussion on the methods and role of HTA.

  16. Technologies Assessing Limb Bradykinesia in Parkinson’s Disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasan, Hasan; Athauda, Dilan S.; Foltynie, Thomas; Noyce, Alastair J.

    2017-01-01

    Background: The MDS-UPDRS (Movement Disorders Society – Unified Parkinson’s Disease Rating Scale) is the most widely used scale for rating impairment in PD. Subscores measuring bradykinesia have low reliability that can be subject to rater variability. Novel technological tools can be used to overcome such issues. Objective: To systematically explore and describe the available technologies for measuring limb bradykinesia in PD that were published between 2006 and 2016. Methods: A systematic literature search using PubMed (MEDLINE), IEEE Xplore, Web of Science, Scopus and Engineering Village (Compendex and Inspec) databases was performed to identify relevant technologies published until 18 October 2016. Results: 47 technologies assessing bradykinesia in PD were identified, 17 of which offered home and clinic-based assessment whilst 30 provided clinic-based assessment only. Of the eligible studies, 7 were validated in a PD patient population only, whilst 40 were tested in both PD and healthy control groups. 19 of the 47 technologies assessed bradykinesia only, whereas 28 assessed other parkinsonian features as well. 33 technologies have been described in additional PD-related studies, whereas 14 are not known to have been tested beyond the pilot phase. Conclusion: Technology based tools offer advantages including objective motor assessment and home monitoring of symptoms, and can be used to assess response to intervention in clinical trials or routine care. This review provides an up-to-date repository and synthesis of the current literature regarding technology used for assessing limb bradykinesia in PD. The review also discusses the current trends with regards to technology and discusses future directions in development. PMID:28222539

  17. IMPROVING HOSPITAL LOGISTICS BY RETHINKING TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, Peter; Jørgensen, Pelle Morten Thomas

    2011-01-01

    In order to cope with the future challenges of the health care sector, there is an urging need for improving efficiency at hospitals. The study presents a framework enabling health care managers of improving the in-house logistics. The distinctiveness of the framework is the way in which it relates...... technology, logistics, structure and procedures to efficiency. Changing one factor e.g. technology, initiates an iterative loop focusing on change in the related factors in order to obtain the optimal efficiency. The search for an optimal efficient solution is the driving force of the framework...... at a Danish hospital. The framework is tested on the blood sample logistics between the emergency department and laboratory with the goal of enhancing the efficiency of the emergency department....

  18. Defining the "proven technology" technical criterion in the reactor technology assessment for Malaysia's nuclear power program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anuar, Nuraslinda; Kahar, Wan Shakirah Wan Abdul; Manan, Jamal Abdul Nasir Abd

    2015-04-01

    Developing countries that are considering the deployment of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the near future need to perform reactor technology assessment (RTA) in order to select the most suitable reactor design. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported in the Common User Considerations (CUC) document that "proven technology" is one of the most important technical criteria for newcomer countries in performing the RTA. The qualitative description of five desired features for "proven technology" is relatively broad and only provides a general guideline to its characterization. This paper proposes a methodology to define the "proven technology" term according to a specific country's requirements using a three-stage evaluation process. The first evaluation stage screens the available technologies in the market against a predefined minimum Technology Readiness Level (TRL) derived as a condition based on national needs and policy objectives. The result is a list of technology options, which are then assessed in the second evaluation stage against quantitative definitions of CUC desired features for proven technology. The potential technology candidates produced from this evaluation is further narrowed down to obtain a list of proven technology candidates by assessing them against selected risk criteria and the established maximum allowable total score using a scoring matrix. The outcome of this methodology is the proven technology candidates selected using an accurate definition of "proven technology" that fulfills the policy objectives, national needs and risk, and country-specific CUC desired features of the country that performs this assessment. A simplified assessment for Malaysia is carried out to demonstrate and suggest the use of the proposed methodology. In this exercise, ABWR, AP1000, APR1400 and EPR designs assumed the top-ranks of proven technology candidates according to Malaysia's definition of "proven technology".

  19. Quadrennial Technology Review 2015: Technology Assessments--Wind Power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    none,

    2015-10-07

    Wind power has become a mainstream power source in the U.S. electricity portfolio, supplying 4.9% of the nation’s electricity demand in 2014. With more than 65 GW installed across 39 states at the end of 2014, utility-scale wind power is a cost-effective source of low-emissions power generation throughout much of the nation. The United States has significant sustainable land-based and offshore wind resource potential, greater than 10 times current total U.S. electricity consumption. A technical wind resource assessment conducted by the Department of Energy (DOE) in 2009 estimated that the land-based wind energy potential for the contiguous United States is equivalent to 10,500 GW capacity at 80 meters (m) hub and 12,000 GW capacity at 100 meters (m) hub heights, assuming a capacity factor of at least 30%. A subsequent 2010 DOE report estimated the technical offshore wind energy potential to be 4,150 GW. The estimate was calculated from the total offshore area within 50 nautical miles of shore in areas where average annual wind speeds are at least 7 m per second at a hub height of 90 m.

  20. Generating technology assessment. Phase I work plan, Task 1 report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1979-10-15

    A plan of work outlining information to assess electric generating technologies is presented. Projections are made of realistic and understandable engineering and cost assessments of nonnuclear electrical generating technologies. A computer-based method of producing such engineering and cost estimates for use by EIA's Coal and Electric Power Analysis Division is to be developed and implemented. Technologies and processes to be assessed are: all nonnuclear conventional and nonconventional (coal gasification, advanced combustion turbines, atmospheric fluidized bed combustion, fuel cells, geothermal, solar thermal and photovoltaics, biomass conversion to electricity, ocean thermal, wind, and MHD). Engineering specifications recommended for determination are listed. Compatibility of the technologies are to be assessed with EIA models: MEFS, LEAP, and NCM.

  1. Instruments for Assessing the Impact of Technology in Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christensen, Rhonda; Knezek, Gerald

    2002-01-01

    Ten years of instrument development are summarized and placed within a framework for assessing the impact of technology in education. Seven well-validated instruments spanning the areas of attitudes, beliefs, skills, competencies, and technology integration proficiencies are presented, along with data analysis examples. These instruments are…

  2. Lifecycle Assessment of Biofuel Production from Wood Pyrolysis Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manyele, S. V.

    2007-01-01

    Due to a stronger dependency on biomass for energy, there is a need for improved technologies in biomass-to-energy conversion in Tanzania. This paper presents a life cycle assessment (LCA) of pyrolysis technology used for conversion of wood and wood waste to liquid biofuel. In particular, a survey of environmental impacts of the process is…

  3. Scenario drafting to anticipate future developments in technology assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Retel, V.P.; Joore, M.A.; Rutgers, E.J.; Harten, van W.H.

    2012-01-01

    Background Health Technology Assessment (HTA) information, and in particular cost-effectiveness data is needed to guide decisions, preferably already in early stages of technological development. However, at that moment there is usually a high degree of uncertainty, because evidence is limited and d

  4. Technology needs assessment (TNA) resource document for South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Taviv, R

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available TNA(Technology needs assessment) is a requirement of Article 4.5 of the UNFCCC ‘Technology Transfer’ is a broad set of processes covering the flows of know-how, experience and equipment for mitigating or adapting to climate change amongst different...

  5. Lifecycle Assessment of Biofuel Production from Wood Pyrolysis Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manyele, S. V.

    2007-01-01

    Due to a stronger dependency on biomass for energy, there is a need for improved technologies in biomass-to-energy conversion in Tanzania. This paper presents a life cycle assessment (LCA) of pyrolysis technology used for conversion of wood and wood waste to liquid biofuel. In particular, a survey of environmental impacts of the process is…

  6. Teacher Learning of Technology-Enhanced Formative Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beatty, Ian D.; Feldman, Allan; Leonard, William J.; Gerace, William J.; St. Cyr, Karen; Lee, Hyunju; Harris, Robby

    2008-01-01

    "Technology-Enhanced Formative Assessment" (TEFA) is an innovative pedagogy for teaching secondary school science or mathematics with "classroom response system" technology. "Teacher Learning of TEFA" (TLT) is a five year research project studying teacher change in the context of an intensive, sustained, on-site professional development (PD)…

  7. Assessment of epidemiological parameters and their use in epidemiological and forecasting models of cereal airborne diseases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vallavieille-Pope, C. de; Giosue, S.; Munk, L.

    2000-01-01

    Assessments of epidemiological parameters (e.g. infection efficiency, latent period, spore production) are required for the prediction of epidemic progress, for the estimation of components of partial resistance for different host plant cultivars and for the estimation of fitness components of pa...

  8. Assessment of epidemiological parameters and their use in epidemiological and forecasting models of cereal airborne diseases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vallavieille-Pope, C. de; Giosue, S.; Munk, L.

    2000-01-01

    Assessments of epidemiological parameters (e.g. infection efficiency, latent period, spore production) are required for the prediction of epidemic progress, for the estimation of components of partial resistance for different host plant cultivars and for the estimation of fitness components...

  9. New Technologies for Standoff Assessment of Radiological Contamination

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cherepy, N; Stevens, C; Wurtz, R; Sanner, R; Frank, M; Tillotson, T; Hrubesh, L; Dietrich, D; Dignon, J; Soufli, R

    2005-05-06

    Technologies to rapidly quantify surface activity with minimal worker contact would dramatically decrease the radiation dose a radiation worker receives in assessment and cleanup operations, while obtaining a clear image of exactly where dispersed contamination is located. LLNL efforts in the development of the Photochromic Radiation Dosimeter and the Imaging Assessment System will be described. Initial use of these technologies in decontamination and decommissioning of contaminated facilities demonstrates several significant advantages over standard techniques such as survey meters and swipes.

  10. Technologies for Assessing Behavioral and Cognitive Markers of Suicide Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-10-01

    AWARD NUMBER: W81XWH-15-1-0632 TITLE: Technologies for Assessing Behavioral and Cognitive Markers of Suicide Risk PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR: Brian...CONTRACT NUMBER Technologies for Assessing Behavioral and Cognitive Markers of Suicide Risk 5b. GRANT NUMBER W81XWH-15-1-0632 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT...suicide risk and to evaluate the predictive utility of these markers over a one year period. We propose to achieve these aims by: (a) collecting

  11. Technology assessment of geothermal energy resource development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1975-04-15

    Geothermal state-of-the-art is described including geothermal resources, technology, and institutional, legal, and environmental considerations. The way geothermal energy may evolve in the United States is described; a series of plausible scenarios and the factors and policies which control the rate of growth of the resource are presented. The potential primary and higher order impacts of geothermal energy are explored, including effects on the economy and society, cities and dwellings, environmental, and on institutions affected by it. Numerical and methodological detail is included in appendices. (MHR)

  12. A Conceptual Methodology for Assessing Acquisition Requirements Robustness against Technology Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, Shuo-Ju

    2011-12-01

    -makers with the ability to assess or measure the robustness of program requirements against such uncertainties. A literature review of techniques for forecasting technology performance and development uncertainties and subsequent impacts on capability, budget, and schedule requirements resulted in the conclusion that an analysis process that coupled a probabilistic analysis technique such as Monte Carlo Simulations with quantitative and parametric models of technology performance impact and technology development time and cost requirements would allow the probabilities of meeting specific constraints of these requirements to be established. These probabilities of requirements success metrics can then be used as a quantitative and probabilistic measure of program requirements robustness against technology uncertainties. Combined with a Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm optimization process and computer-based Decision Support System, critical information regarding requirements robustness against technology uncertainties can be captured and quantified for acquisition decision-makers. This results in a more informed and justifiable selection of program technologies during initial program definition as well as formulation of program development and risk management strategies. To meet the stated research objective, the ENhanced TEchnology Robustness Prediction and RISk Evaluation (ENTERPRISE) methodology was formulated to provide a structured and transparent process for integrating these enabling techniques to provide a probabilistic and quantitative assessment of acquisition program requirements robustness against technology performance and development uncertainties. In order to demonstrate the capabilities of the ENTERPRISE method and test the research Hypotheses, an demonstration application of this method was performed on a notional program for acquiring the Carrier-based Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses (SEAD) using Unmanned Combat Aircraft Systems (UCAS) and their enabling

  13. Gender and risk assessment in contraceptive technologies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kammen, van Jessika; Oudshoorn, Nelly

    2002-01-01

    This paper concerns a comparison of risk assessment practices of contraceptives for women and men. Our analysis shows how the evaluation of health risks of contraceptives does not simply reflect the specific effects of chemical compounds in the human body. Rather, we show how side-effects were rated

  14. The case for better PV forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alet, Pierre-Jean; Efthymiou, Venizelos; Graditi, Giorgio

    2016-01-01

    Rising levels of PV penetration mean increasingly sophisticated forecasting technologies are needed to maintain grid stability and maximise the economic value of PV systems. The Grid Integration working group of the European Technology and Innovation Platform – Photovoltaics (ETIP PV) shares...... the results of its ongoing research into the advantages and limitations of current forecasting technologies....

  15. Technology assessment for Spaceship Two, space tourism, and private spaceflight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hancock, Randy

    A seven-step technology assessment was conducted to address questions regarding the significance and likely consequences associated with the introduction of Spaceship Two, space tourism, and private spaceflight. Impacts were assessed across four categories: the Role and Functions of Government, Private Industry Factors, Cultural and Societal Impacts, and the Time Frame in which these impacts were anticipated to occur. The technology assessment findings were compared to the results of expert interviews that addressed the sane four categories. The researcher noted that, while there was overwhelming agreement between the technology assessment's primary impacts and the expert interview responses, there were several differences. The technology assessment and interviewees agreed that the federal government would likely be both a regulator and user of private spaceflight. Both agreed that business partnerships would be key in pursuing private spaceflight. There was also consensus that, as market forces come to bear, ticket prices would drop and a larger market and broader passenger demographic would emerge. The technology assessment and experts agreed that an accident, especially one early in the industry's evolution, could be disastrous. Both agreed that private spaceflight can serve as a inspiration to students and be a positive influence in society, and both agreed that the start of passenger flights should take place in the 2010 - 2012 timeframe. Due to the potentially disastrous consequences of an accident, there was agreement between the technology assessment and experts on the value of flight and ground crew training, driven by insurance carriers and federal mandate. Most differences between the technology assessment's findings and the expert interview responses were due to omission, rather than direct disagreement. However, this was not the case in every instance. The most significant difference between the technology assessment and the experts involved the

  16. The Method for Assessing and Forecasting Value of Knowledge in SMEs – Research Results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justyna Patalas-Maliszewska

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Decisions by SMEs regarding knowledge development are made at a strategic level (Haas-Edersheim, 2007. Related to knowledge management are approaches to "measure" knowledge, where literature distinguishes between qualitative and quantitative methods of valuating intellectual capital. Although there is a quite range of such methods to build an intellectual capital reporting system, none of them is really widely recognized. This work presents a method enabling assessing the effectiveness of investing in human resources, taking into consideration existing methods. The method presented is focusing on SMEs (taking into consideration their importance for, especially, regional development. It consists of four parts: an SME reference model, an indicator matrix to assess investments into knowledge, innovation indicators, and the GMDH algorithm for decision making. The method presented is exemplified by a case study including 10 companies.

  17. Problems of method of technology assessment. A methodological analysis; Methodenprobleme des Technology Assessment; Eine methodologische Analyse

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zimmermann, V.

    1993-03-01

    The study undertakes to analyse the theoretical and methodological structure of Technology Assessment (TA). It is based on a survey of TA studies which provided an important condition for theoreticall sound statements on methodological aspects of TA. It was established that the main basic theoretical problems of TA are in the field of dealing with complexity. This is also apparent in the constitution of problems, the most elementary and central approach of TA. Scientifically founded constitution of problems and the corresponding construction of models call for interdisciplinary scientific work. Interdisciplinarity in the TA research process is achieved at the level of virtual networks, these networks being composed of individuals suited to teamwork. The emerging network structures have an objective-organizational and an ideational basis. The objective-organizational basis is mainly the result of team composition and the external affiliations of the team members. The ideational basis of the virtual network is represented by the team members` mode of thinking, which is individually located at a multidisciplinary level. The theoretical `skeleton` of the TA knowledge system, which is represented by process knowledge based linkage structures, can be generated and also processed in connection with the knowledge on types of problems, areas of analysis and procedures to deal with complexity. Within this process, disciplinary knowledge is a necessary but not a sufficient condition. Metatheoretical and metadisciplinary knowledge and the correspondingly processes complexity of models are the basis for the necessary methodological awareness, that allows TA to become designable as a research procedure. (orig./HP) [Deutsch] Die Studie stellt sich die Aufgabe, die theoretische und methodische Struktur des Technology Assessment (TA) zu analysieren. Sie fusst auf Erhebungen, die bei Technology-Assessment-Studien vorgenommen wurden und die wesentliche Voraussetzungen fuer

  18. Measuring and Assessing Application-Specific Technology Readiness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonino Ardilio

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Technology readiness is a crucial issue for decision-makers in technology-driven enterprises, determining whether the technology will or won’t be adopted for use in products or as a process technology. We know that, in some cases, lower technology readiness will be accepted by the users; these could be end-users, but, more often, it will be used in companies. The impact of a too early or too late adopted technology can be huge for companies and can even threaten market position or the existence of the company itself. Research institutes and technology developers, in particular application-oriented research organizations, might be also interested in which parameters or technology attributes should be improved or extended, according to the addressed application field, so that the technology fulfils the market-requested functions and a fast diffusion in the market can be achieved. Existing technology readiness models cover the various usages of the technology. In many cases, they assess the technology’s use in across different industries and application fields. However, the requirements in many fields are mostly different and very specific; thus, evaluation at such a high level can’t conclude whether the technology should be considered and adopted in the applications involved. This paper introduces an approach on how to determine and map the application-specific readiness of technology by decomposing both the application and the technology into its requested functions, as well as dynamically mapping the individual technology performance criteria. The applicability of this model will be demonstrated and discussed by a use case in the area of OLED-technology.

  19. Space-reactor electric systems: subsystem technology assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, R.V.; Bost, D.; Determan, W.R.

    1983-03-29

    This report documents the subsystem technology assessment. For the purpose of this report, five subsystems were defined for a space reactor electric system, and the report is organized around these subsystems: reactor; shielding; primary heat transport; power conversion and processing; and heat rejection. The purpose of the assessment was to determine the current technology status and the technology potentials for different types of the five subsystems. The cost and schedule needed to develop these potentials were estimated, and sets of development-compatible subsystems were identified.

  20. Assessment of Wearable Sensor Technologies for Biosurveillance

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-11-01

    intelligence (AI) and biometric data, the device captures electrodermal activity in real time to assess emotional states. Using the technique of...Biometric smartwear Hexoskin Breathing rate, volume, cadence, ECG, sleep position, heart rate, and other physiological data Wearable Wellnes...watches. Google Fit’s fitness tracking will display data such as heart rate, or detect whether its wearer has been physically active . Google’s

  1. Phase shifter technology assessment - Prospects and applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sokolov, Vladimir

    1991-01-01

    Capabilities and limitations of MMIC phase shifter technology at microwave and millimeter wave frequencies are reviewed. MMIC-based phase arrays make it possible to integrate active elements at the array face, i.e., to incorporate transmit power amplifiers and/or low noise amplifiers at each antenna element. Active elements make it possible to increase power efficiency and reliability and provide graceful degradation. Monolithic integration of the various transmit/receive functions including phase shifting is considered to be feasible through at least the lower millimeter-wave frequency range (about 30-100 GHz). MMIC integration also allows more flexibility in array design including those that are intended for airborne conformal applications.

  2. The conceptual and practical challenges to technology categorisation in the preparation of technology needs assessments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nygaard, Ivan; Hansen, Ulrich Elmer

    2015-01-01

    The strong focus in climate negotiations on the transfer and diffusion of technologies as ameans to mitigate and adapt to climate change has entailed various programs to promote the transfer and diffusion of climate technologies, including the Technology Needs Assessment project (TNA). Despite...... for the challenges in formulating plans of actions for technologies. If, due to a lack of conceptual clarity, it is not clear to countries whether the diffusion of a specific technology should be implemented by a project or by means of an enabling framework, the measures proposed in the action plans may...

  3. Development of Advanced Life Cycle Costing Methods for Technology Benefit/Cost/Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yackovetsky, Robert (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The overall objective of this three-year grant is to provide NASA Langley's System Analysis Branch with improved affordability tools and methods based on probabilistic cost assessment techniques. In order to accomplish this objective, the Aerospace Systems Design Laboratory (ASDL) needs to pursue more detailed affordability, technology impact, and risk prediction methods and to demonstrate them on variety of advanced commercial transports. The affordability assessment, which is a cornerstone of ASDL methods, relies on the Aircraft Life Cycle Cost Analysis (ALCCA) program originally developed by NASA Ames Research Center and enhanced by ASDL. This grant proposed to improve ALCCA in support of the project objective by updating the research, design, test, and evaluation cost module, as well as the engine development cost module. Investigations into enhancements to ALCCA include improved engine development cost, process based costing, supportability cost, and system reliability with airline loss of revenue for system downtime. A probabilistic, stand-alone version of ALCCA/FLOPS will also be developed under this grant in order to capture the uncertainty involved in technology assessments. FLOPS (FLight Optimization System program) is an aircraft synthesis and sizing code developed by NASA Langley Research Center. This probabilistic version of the coupled program will be used within a Technology Impact Forecasting (TIF) method to determine what types of technologies would have to be infused in a system in order to meet customer requirements. A probabilistic analysis of the CER's (cost estimating relationships) within ALCCA will also be carried out under this contract in order to gain some insight as to the most influential costs and the impact that code fidelity could have on future RDS (Robust Design Simulation) studies.

  4. Forecasts: uncertain, inaccurate and biased?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nicolaisen, Morten Skou; Ambrasaite, Inga; Salling, Kim Bang

    2012-01-01

    Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) is the dominating methodology for appraisal of transport infrastructure projects across the globe. In order to adequately assess the costs and benefits of such projects two types of forecasts are crucial to the validity of the appraisal. First are the forecasts...... of construction costs, which account for the majority of total project costs. Second are the forecasts of travel time savings, which account for the majority of total project benefits. The latter of these is, inter alia, determined by forecasts of travel demand, which we shall use as a proxy for the forecasting...... accuracy of project benefits. This paper presents results from an on-going research project on uncertainties in transport project evaluation (UNITE) that find forecasts of demand to be not only uncertain, but at times also highly inaccurate and often displaying a concerning degree of bias. Demand for road...

  5. Strategic Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this article is to present an overview of the area of strategic forecasting and its research directions and to put forward some ideas for improving management decisions. Design/methodology/approach: This article is conceptual but also informed by the author’s long contact...... and collaboration with various business firms. It starts by presenting an overview of the area and argues that the area is as much a way of thinking as a toolbox of theories and methodologies. It then spells out a number of research directions and ideas for management. Findings: Strategic forecasting is seen...... as a rebirth of long range planning, albeit with new methods and theories. Firms should make the building of strategic forecasting capability a priority. Research limitations/implications: The article subdivides strategic forecasting into three research avenues and suggests avenues for further research efforts...

  6. Exposure Forecaster

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Exposure Forecaster Database (ExpoCastDB) is EPA's database for aggregating chemical exposure information and can be used to help with chemical exposure...

  7. Noninvasive imaging technologies for cutaneous wound assessment: A review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, Dereck W; Ghassemi, Pejhman; Ramella-Roman, Jessica C; Prindeze, Nicholas J; Moffatt, Lauren T; Alkhalil, Abdulnaser; Shupp, Jeffrey W

    2015-01-01

    The ability to phenotype wounds for the purposes of assessing severity, healing potential and treatment is an important function of evidence-based medicine. A variety of optical technologies are currently in development for noninvasive wound assessment. To varying extents, these optical technologies have the potential to supplement traditional clinical wound evaluation and research, by providing detailed information regarding skin components imperceptible to visual inspection. These assessments are achieved through quantitative optical analysis of tissue characteristics including blood flow, collagen remodeling, hemoglobin content, inflammation, temperature, vascular structure, and water content. Technologies that have, to this date, been applied to wound assessment include: near infrared imaging, thermal imaging, optical coherence tomography, orthogonal polarization spectral imaging, fluorescence imaging, laser Doppler imaging, microscopy, spatial frequency domain imaging, photoacoustic detection, and spectral/hyperspectral imaging. We present a review of the technologies in use or development for these purposes with three aims: (1) providing basic explanations of imaging technology concepts, (2) reviewing the wound imaging literature, and (3) providing insight into areas for further application and exploration. Noninvasive imaging is a promising advancement in wound assessment and all technologies require further validation.

  8. Elaboration and validation of an assistive technology assessment questionnaire

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernanda Jorge Guimarães

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Assistive Technologies consists of resources, methods, and strategies favoring autonomy and inclusion of elderly and people with disabilities, being scarce in the literature instruments assessing them. A methodology study conducted with a panel of specialists and people with visual impairment, aimed to elaborate and validate a questionnaire to assess educational assistive technology. To consider an item as valid, we used 80% as agreement percentage, and validity and reliability of the questionnaire were calculated. Assistive Technology was characterized in six attributes: objectives, access, clarity, structure and presentation, relevance and efficacy, interactivity, and 19 items were elaborated to compose the questionnaire. From those, 11 obtained percentages higher than 80%, seven were modified and one was excluded. The instrument Cronbach’s alpha was 0,822, guaranteeing validity and reliability of the tool to assess health education Assistive Technology, and therefore, its use is indicated.

  9. Hawaii Energy Strategy: Program guide. [Contains special sections on analytical energy forecasting, renewable energy resource assessment, demand-side energy management, energy vulnerability assessment, and energy strategy integration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1992-09-01

    The Hawaii Energy Strategy program, or HES, is a set of seven projects which will produce an integrated energy strategy for the State of Hawaii. It will include a comprehensive energy vulnerability assessment with recommended courses of action to decrease Hawaii's energy vulnerability and to better prepare for an effective response to any energy emergency or supply disruption. The seven projects are designed to increase understanding of Hawaii's energy situation and to produce recommendations to achieve the State energy objectives of: Dependable, efficient, and economical state-wide energy systems capable of supporting the needs of the people, and increased energy self-sufficiency. The seven projects under the Hawaii Energy Strategy program include: Project 1: Develop Analytical Energy Forecasting Model for the State of Hawaii. Project 2: Fossil Energy Review and Analysis. Project 3: Renewable Energy Resource Assessment and Development Program. Project 4: Demand-Side Management Program. Project 5: Transportation Energy Strategy. Project 6: Energy Vulnerability Assessment Report and Contingency Planning. Project 7: Energy Strategy Integration and Evaluation System.

  10. Technology Enhanced Formative Assessment for 21st Century Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spector, J. Michael; Ifenthaler, Dirk; Sampson, Demetrios; Yang, Lan; Mukama, Evode; Warusavitarana, Amali; Dona, Kulari Lokuge; Eichhorn, Koos; Fluck, Andrew; Huang, Ronghuai; Bridges, Susan; Lu, Jiingyan; Ren, Youqun; Gui, Xiaoqing; Deneen, Christopher C.; San Diego, Jonathan; Gibson, David C.

    2016-01-01

    This paper is based on the deliberations of the Assessment Working Group at EDUsummIT 2015 in Bangkok, Thailand. All of the members of Thematic Working Group 5 (TWG5) have contributed to this synthesis of potentials, concerns and issues with regard to the role of technology in assessment as, for and of learning in the 21st century. The group…

  11. Utilisation of medical technology assessment in health policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Heuvel, WJA; Wieringh, R; van den Heuvel, LPM

    1997-01-01

    Objective: To assess the contribution of medical technology assessment (MTA) to health policy decision making, the question has to be answered whether MTA is actually being used in decision-making processes and what factors are related to its utilisation. Design: We investigated recent Dutch policy

  12. Voice Assessment of Student Work: Recent Studies and Emerging Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eckhouse, Barry; Carroll, Rebecca

    2013-01-01

    Although relatively little attention has been given to the voice assessment of student work, at least when compared with more traditional forms of text-based review, the attention it has received strongly points to a promising form of review that has been hampered by the limits of an emerging technology. A fresh review of voice assessment in light…

  13. A Technology Assessment of Personal Computers. Vol. I: Summary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nilles, Jack M.

    This volume summarizes the results of a 2-year technology assessment of personal computers. The purpose of this study was to explore possible future modes of growth of the personal computer and related industries, to assess the impacts and consequences of that growth, and to present some of the policy issues and options which may arise as a…

  14. Reactor technology assessment and selection utilizing systems engineering approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zolkaffly, Muhammed Zulfakar; Han, Ki-In

    2014-02-01

    The first Nuclear power plant (NPP) deployment in a country is a complex process that needs to consider technical, economic and financial aspects along with other aspects like public acceptance. Increased interest in the deployment of new NPPs, both among newcomer countries and those with expanding programs, necessitates the selection of reactor technology among commercially available technologies. This paper reviews the Systems Decision Process (SDP) of Systems Engineering and applies it in selecting the most appropriate reactor technology for the deployment in Malaysia. The integrated qualitative and quantitative analyses employed in the SDP are explored to perform reactor technology assessment and to select the most feasible technology whose design has also to comply with the IAEA standard requirements and other relevant requirements that have been established in this study. A quick Malaysian case study result suggests that the country reside with PWR (pressurized water reactor) technologies with more detailed study to be performed in the future for the selection of the most appropriate reactor technology for Malaysia. The demonstrated technology assessment also proposes an alternative method to systematically and quantitatively select the most appropriate reactor technology.

  15. Future yields assessment of bioenergy crops in relation to climate change and technological development in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salvatore L. Cosentino

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Bioenergy crops are expected to play an important role in reducing CO2 emission, in energy supply and in European energy policy. However, a sustainable bioenergy supply must be resilient to climate change and the impacts on agriculture at both global and regional scale. The purpose of this study was to forecast the potential distribution of several bioenergy crops based on agronomic and environmental constrains under current conditions and future scenarios (2020 and 2030 in European Union. Potential biomass yield, according to the category end use product achievable in each environmental zone of Europe at present and in the future available land have been also studied. Future yields were assessed according to two factors: technological development and climate change: the former was based on prospect of DG-Agriculture for conventional crops and expert judgments for bioenergy crops, while the latter based on relevant research papers and literature reviews which used site-specific crop growth models. Yields are expected to increase in northern Europe due to climate change and technological development, while in southerneastern Europe the negative effect of climate change will be mitigated by the technological development. The estimated total biomass production in Europe, on the basis of future yields and surplus land made available for energy crops, may not be sufficient to meet the needs of bioenergy supply as claimed in the European directive 2009/28/EC.

  16. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 23 Appendix V - Forecast Sea Ice Thickness

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-04-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  17. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 25 Appendix X - Forecast Sea Ice Age.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Shannon M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Walker, La Tonya Nicole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Roberts, Barry L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-05-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  18. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 17 Appendix P - Forecast Soil Moisture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-04-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  19. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 15 Appendix N - Forecast Surface Runoff.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Shannon M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Walker, La Tonya Nicole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Roberts, Barry L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-05-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  20. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 27 Appendix Z - Forecast Ridging Rate.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  1. Emerging frontier technologies for food safety analysis and risk assessment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DONG Yi-yang; LIU Jia-hui; WANG Sai; CHEN Qi-long; GUO Tian-yang; ZHANG Li-ya; JIN Yong; SU Hai-jia; TAN Tian-wei

    2015-01-01

    Access to security and safe food is a basic human necessity and essential for a sustainable world. To perform hi-end food safety analysis and risk assessment with state of the art technologies is of utmost importance thereof. With applications as exempliifed by microlfuidic immunoassay, aptasensor, direct analysis in real time, high resolution mass spectrometry, benchmark dose and chemical speciifc adjustment factor, this review presents frontier food safety analysis and risk assess-ment technologies, from which both food quality and public health wil beneift undoubtedly in a foreseeable future.

  2. The principles of Health Technology Assessment in laboratory medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liguori, Giorgio; Belfiore, Patrizia; D'Amora, Maurizio; Liguori, Renato; Plebani, Mario

    2017-01-01

    The Health Technology Assessment (HTA) is a multi-professional and multidisciplinary evaluation approach designed to assess health technology in the broadest sense of the term, from its instruments to the rearranging of its organizational structures. It is by now an established methodology at national and international levels that involves several medical disciplines thanks to its versatility. Laboratory medicine is one of these disciplines. Such specialization was subjected, in recent years, to deep changes even from an organizational standpoint, in order to meet the health needs of the population, making them as effective and cost-effective as possible. In this regard, HTA was the tool used to assess implications in different areas.

  3. On the reliability of Seasonal Climate Forecasts

    CERN Document Server

    Weisheimer, Antje

    2013-01-01

    Seasonal climate forecasts are being used increasingly across a range of application sectors. A recent UK governmental report asked: How good are seasonal climate forecasts on a scale of 1-5 (where 5 is very good), and how good can we expect them to be in 30 years time? Seasonal climate forecasts are made from ensembles of integrations of numerical models of climate. We argue that goodness should be assessed primarily in terms of the probabilistic reliability of these ensemble-based forecasts and that a 5 should be reserved for systems which are not only reliable overall, but where, in particular, small ensemble spread is a reliable indicator of low ensemble forecast error. We study the reliability of regional temperature and precipitation forecasts of the current operational seasonal forecast system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, universally regarded as a world leading operational institute producing seasonal climate forecasts. A wide range of goodness rankings, depending on regio...

  4. Improving pest risk assessment and management through the aid of geospatial information technology standards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trond Rafoss

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Delivery of geospatial information over the Internet for the management of risks from invasive alien species is an increasingly important service. The evolution of information technology standards for geospatial data is a key factor to simplify network publishing and exchange of maps and data. The World Wide Web Consortium (W3C-geolocation specification is a recent addition that may prove useful for pest risk management. In this article we implement the W3C-geolocation specification and Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC mapping standards in a Web browser application for smartphones and tablet computers to improve field surveys for alien invasive species. We report our first season field experiences using this tool for online mapping of plant disease outbreaks and host plant occurrence. It is expected that the improved field data collection tools will result in increased data availability and thereby new opportunities for risk assessment, because data-needs and availability are crucial for species distribution modelling and model-based forecasts of pest establishment potential. Finally, we close with a comment on the future potential of geospatial information standards to enhance the translation from data to decisions regarding pest risks, which should enable earlier detection of emerging risks as well as more robust projections of pest risks in novel areas. The forthcoming standard for processing of geospatial information, the Web Processing Standard (WPS, should open new technological capabilities both for automatic initiation and updating of risk assessment models based on new incoming data, and subsequent early warning.

  5. Quantile forecast discrimination ability and value

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ben Bouallègue, Zied; Pinson, Pierre; Friederichs, Petra

    2015-01-01

    While probabilistic forecast verification for categorical forecasts is well established, some of the existing concepts and methods have not found their equivalent for the case of continuous variables. New tools dedicated to the assessment of forecast discrimination ability and forecast value......-based discrimination tool and the quantile value plot translates forecast discrimination ability in terms of economic value. The relationship between the overall value of a quantile forecast and the respective quantile skill score is also discussed. The application of these new verification approaches and tools...

  6. Foresight and Forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kilbourn, Kyle; Bay, Marie Brøndum

    In predicting areas of growth, public innovation projects may rely on optimistic visions of technology still in development as a way of ensuring novelty for funding. This paper explores what happens when forecasts of robotic technology meets the practice of sterile supply in a preliminary stage......, the most sustainable innovation stems from the dialogical interaction between practitioner foresight and societal forecasting, requiring continued development of participatory design as it moves into new contexts....... of an ongoing project. We examine the nature of participation in design on three levels: in the sterilization ward, this particular project and society in general. From our case, we suggest that while innovation projects proceeding from a certain technological perspective can succeed at building excitement...

  7. Bayesian flood forecasting methods: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Shasha; Coulibaly, Paulin

    2017-08-01

    Over the past few decades, floods have been seen as one of the most common and largely distributed natural disasters in the world. If floods could be accurately forecasted in advance, then their negative impacts could be greatly minimized. It is widely recognized that quantification and reduction of uncertainty associated with the hydrologic forecast is of great importance for flood estimation and rational decision making. Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) offers an ideal theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification that can be developed for probabilistic flood forecasting via any deterministic hydrologic model. It provides suitable theoretical structure, empirically validated models and reasonable analytic-numerical computation method, and can be developed into various Bayesian forecasting approaches. This paper presents a comprehensive review on Bayesian forecasting approaches applied in flood forecasting from 1999 till now. The review starts with an overview of fundamentals of BFS and recent advances in BFS, followed with BFS application in river stage forecasting and real-time flood forecasting, then move to a critical analysis by evaluating advantages and limitations of Bayesian forecasting methods and other predictive uncertainty assessment approaches in flood forecasting, and finally discusses the future research direction in Bayesian flood forecasting. Results show that the Bayesian flood forecasting approach is an effective and advanced way for flood estimation, it considers all sources of uncertainties and produces a predictive distribution of the river stage, river discharge or runoff, thus gives more accurate and reliable flood forecasts. Some emerging Bayesian forecasting methods (e.g. ensemble Bayesian forecasting system, Bayesian multi-model combination) were shown to overcome limitations of single model or fixed model weight and effectively reduce predictive uncertainty. In recent years, various Bayesian flood forecasting approaches have been

  8. Forecasting hurricane tracks using a complex adaptive system

    OpenAIRE

    Lear, Matthew R.

    2005-01-01

    Forecast hurricane tracks using a multi-model ensemble that is comprised by linearly combining the individual model forecasts have greatly reduced the average forecast errors when compared to individual dynamic model forecast errors. In this experiment, a complex adaptive system, the Tropical Agent Forecaster (TAF), is created to fashion a 'smart' ensemble forecast. The TAF uses autonomous agents to assess the historical performance of individual models and model combinations, called predicto...

  9. Verification of ECMWF and ECMWF/MACC's global and direct irradiance forecasts with respect to solar electricity production forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Schroedter-Homscheidt

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The successful electricity grid integration of solar energy into day-ahead markets requires at least hourly resolved 48 h forecasts. Technologies as photovoltaics and non-concentrating solar thermal technologies make use of global horizontal irradiance (GHI forecasts, while all concentrating technologies both from the photovoltaic and the thermal sector require direct normal irradiances (DNI. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF has recently changed towards providing direct as well as global irradiances. Additionally, the MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition & Climate near-real time services provide daily analysis and forecasts of aerosol properties in preparation of the upcoming European Copernicus programme. The operational ECMWF/IFS (Integrated Forecast System forecast system will in the medium term profit from the Copernicus service aerosol forecasts. Therefore, within the MACC‑II project specific experiment runs were performed allowing for the assessment of the performance gain of these potential future capabilities. Also the potential impact of providing forecasts with hourly output resolution compared to three-hourly resolved forecasts is investigated. The inclusion of the new aerosol climatology in October 2003 improved both the GHI and DNI forecasts remarkably, while the change towards a new radiation scheme in 2007 only had minor and partly even unfavourable impacts on the performance indicators. For GHI, larger RMSE (root mean square error values are found for broken/overcast conditions than for scattered cloud fields. For DNI, the findings are opposite with larger RMSE values for scattered clouds compared to overcast/broken cloud situations. The introduction of direct irradiances as an output parameter in the operational IFS version has not resulted in a general performance improvement with respect to biases and RMSE compared to the widely used Skartveit et al. (1998 global to direct irradiance

  10. The multi temporal/multi-model approach to predictive uncertainty assessment in real-time flood forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbetta, Silvia; Coccia, Gabriele; Moramarco, Tommaso; Brocca, Luca; Todini, Ezio

    2017-08-01

    This work extends the multi-temporal approach of the Model Conditional Processor (MCP-MT) to the multi-model case and to the four Truncated Normal Distributions (TNDs) approach, demonstrating the improvement on the single-temporal one. The study is framed in the context of probabilistic Bayesian decision-making that is appropriate to take rational decisions on uncertain future outcomes. As opposed to the direct use of deterministic forecasts, the probabilistic forecast identifies a predictive probability density function that represents a fundamental knowledge on future occurrences. The added value of MCP-MT is the identification of the probability that a critical situation will happen within the forecast lead-time and when, more likely, it will occur. MCP-MT is thoroughly tested for both single-model and multi-model configurations at a gauged site on the Tiber River, central Italy. The stages forecasted by two operative deterministic models, STAFOM-RCM and MISDc, are considered for the study. The dataset used for the analysis consists of hourly data from 34 flood events selected on a time series of six years. MCP-MT improves over the original models' forecasts: the peak overestimation and the rising limb delayed forecast, characterizing MISDc and STAFOM-RCM respectively, are significantly mitigated, with a reduced mean error on peak stage from 45 to 5 cm and an increased coefficient of persistence from 0.53 up to 0.75. The results show that MCP-MT outperforms the single-temporal approach and is potentially useful for supporting decision-making because the exceedance probability of hydrometric thresholds within a forecast horizon and the most probable flooding time can be estimated.

  11. ASSESSMENT OF ORGANIZATIONAL AND TECHNOLOGICAL RELIABILITY OF INDUSTRIAL CONSTRUCTION ENTERPRISES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gazaryan Robert Kamoevich

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available In this article, the procedure of identification of organizational and technological reliability is described. This methodology is applicable both to separate functional areas and to all industrial enterprises. Its objective is to assess the expediency of reorganization. The objective of this scientific research is the substantiation of reorganization of an industrial enterprise. Multivariable models, or convolutions, were used as research methods. According to the RF law, industrial enterprises are divided into four functional areas, each of which is assessed on the basis of multiple criteria. Assessment of organizational and technological reliability requires a multi-parameter model. Its axes correspond to the number of evaluation criteria. The set of criteria designated for the assessment of organizational and technological reliability is identified on the basis of the homogeneity of trend indicators designated for centripetal and centrifugal models. The axes of a multi-parameter model represent real and benchmark values. The unit serves as the benchmark value; it is the maximal value of this parameter. The formula based on average values shall be used to determine the total value of the above parameters. The authors have also generated a model of organizational and technological reliability of industrial enterprises. It is noteworthy that assessment of organizational and technological reliability of an industrial enterprise requires a concentric multi-layer model developed through the application of the convolution method.

  12. Adapting a Markov Monte Carlo simulation model for forecasting the number of coronary artery revascularisation procedures in an era of rapidly changing technology and policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mannan, Haider R; Knuiman, Matthew; Hobbs, Michael

    2008-06-25

    Treatments for coronary heart disease (CHD) have evolved rapidly over the last 15 years with considerable change in the number and effectiveness of both medical and surgical treatments. This period has seen the rapid development and uptake of statin drugs and coronary artery revascularization procedures (CARPs) that include Coronary Artery Bypass Graft procedures (CABGs) and Percutaneous Coronary Interventions (PCIs). It is difficult in an era of such rapid change to accurately forecast requirements for treatment services such as CARPs. In a previous paper we have described and outlined the use of a Markov Monte Carlo simulation model for analyzing and predicting the requirements for CARPs for the population of Western Australia (Mannan et al, 2007). In this paper, we expand on the use of this model for forecasting CARPs in Western Australia with a focus on the lack of adequate performance of the (standard) model for forecasting CARPs in a period during the mid 1990s when there were considerable changes to CARP technology and implementation policy and an exploration and demonstration of how the standard model may be adapted to achieve better performance. Selected key CARP event model probabilities are modified based on information relating to changes in the effectiveness of CARPs from clinical trial evidence and an awareness of trends in policy and practice of CARPs. These modified model probabilities and the ones obtained by standard methods are used as inputs in our Markov simulation model. The projected numbers of CARPs in the population of Western Australia over 1995-99 only improve marginally when modifications to model probabilities are made to incorporate an increase in effectiveness of PCI procedures. However, the projected numbers improve substantially when, in addition, further modifications are incorporated that relate to the increased probability of a PCI procedure and the reduced probability of a CABG procedure stemming from changed CARP preference

  13. Adapting a Markov Monte Carlo simulation model for forecasting the number of Coronary Artery Revascularisation Procedures in an era of rapidly changing technology and policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Knuiman Matthew

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Treatments for coronary heart disease (CHD have evolved rapidly over the last 15 years with considerable change in the number and effectiveness of both medical and surgical treatments. This period has seen the rapid development and uptake of statin drugs and coronary artery revascularization procedures (CARPs that include Coronary Artery Bypass Graft procedures (CABGs and Percutaneous Coronary Interventions (PCIs. It is difficult in an era of such rapid change to accurately forecast requirements for treatment services such as CARPs. In a previous paper we have described and outlined the use of a Markov Monte Carlo simulation model for analyzing and predicting the requirements for CARPs for the population of Western Australia (Mannan et al, 2007. In this paper, we expand on the use of this model for forecasting CARPs in Western Australia with a focus on the lack of adequate performance of the (standard model for forecasting CARPs in a period during the mid 1990s when there were considerable changes to CARP technology and implementation policy and an exploration and demonstration of how the standard model may be adapted to achieve better performance. Methods Selected key CARP event model probabilities are modified based on information relating to changes in the effectiveness of CARPs from clinical trial evidence and an awareness of trends in policy and practice of CARPs. These modified model probabilities and the ones obtained by standard methods are used as inputs in our Markov simulation model. Results The projected numbers of CARPs in the population of Western Australia over 1995–99 only improve marginally when modifications to model probabilities are made to incorporate an increase in effectiveness of PCI procedures. However, the projected numbers improve substantially when, in addition, further modifications are incorporated that relate to the increased probability of a PCI procedure and the reduced probability of a CABG

  14. Technological and life cycle assessment of organics processing odour control technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bindra, Navin [School of Engineering, University of Guelph, 50 Stone Road East, Guelph, Ontario N1G2W1 (Canada); Dubey, Brajesh, E-mail: bkdubey@civil.iitkgp.ernet.in [School of Engineering, University of Guelph, 50 Stone Road East, Guelph, Ontario N1G2W1 (Canada); Environmental Engineering Division, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur, West Bengal 721302 (India); Dutta, Animesh [School of Engineering, University of Guelph, 50 Stone Road East, Guelph, Ontario N1G2W1 (Canada)

    2015-09-15

    As more municipalities and communities across developed world look towards implementing organic waste management programmes or upgrading existing ones, composting facilities are emerging as a popular choice. However, odour from these facilities continues to be one of the most important concerns in terms of cost & effective mitigation. This paper provides a technological and life cycle assessment of some of the different odour control technologies and treatment methods that can be implemented in organics processing facilities. The technological assessment compared biofilters, packed tower wet scrubbers, fine mist wet scrubbers, activated carbon adsorption, thermal oxidization, oxidization chemicals and masking agents. The technologies/treatment methods were evaluated and compared based on a variety of operational, usage and cost parameters. Based on the technological assessment it was found that, biofilters and packed bed wet scrubbers are the most applicable odour control technologies for use in organics processing faculties. A life cycle assessment was then done to compare the environmental impacts of the packed-bed wet scrubber system, organic (wood-chip media) bio-filter and inorganic (synthetic media) bio-filter systems. Twelve impact categories were assessed; cumulative energy demand (CED), climate change, human toxicity, photochemical oxidant formation, metal depletion, fossil depletion, terrestrial acidification, freshwater eutrophication, marine eutrophication, terrestrial eco-toxicity, freshwater eco-toxicity and marine eco-toxicity. The results showed that for all impact categories the synthetic media biofilter had the highest environmental impact, followed by the wood chip media bio-filter system. The packed-bed system had the lowest environmental impact for all categories. - Highlights: • Assessment of odour control technologies for organics processing facilities. • Comparative life cycle assessment of three odour control technologies was conducted

  15. A human judgment approach to epidemiological forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrow, David C; Brooks, Logan C; Hyun, Sangwon; Tibshirani, Ryan J; Burke, Donald S; Rosenfeld, Roni

    2017-03-01

    Infectious diseases impose considerable burden on society, despite significant advances in technology and medicine over the past century. Advanced warning can be helpful in mitigating and preparing for an impending or ongoing epidemic. Historically, such a capability has lagged for many reasons, including in particular the uncertainty in the current state of the system and in the understanding of the processes that drive epidemic trajectories. Presently we have access to data, models, and computational resources that enable the development of epidemiological forecasting systems. Indeed, several recent challenges hosted by the U.S. government have fostered an open and collaborative environment for the development of these technologies. The primary focus of these challenges has been to develop statistical and computational methods for epidemiological forecasting, but here we consider a serious alternative based on collective human judgment. We created the web-based "Epicast" forecasting system which collects and aggregates epidemic predictions made in real-time by human participants, and with these forecasts we ask two questions: how accurate is human judgment, and how do these forecasts compare to their more computational, data-driven alternatives? To address the former, we assess by a variety of metrics how accurately humans are able to predict influenza and chikungunya trajectories. As for the latter, we show that real-time, combined human predictions of the 2014-2015 and 2015-2016 U.S. flu seasons are often more accurate than the same predictions made by several statistical systems, especially for short-term targets. We conclude that there is valuable predictive power in collective human judgment, and we discuss the benefits and drawbacks of this approach.

  16. Technology Assessment Tool - An Application of Systems Engineering to USDOE Technology Proposals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rynearson, Michael Ardel

    1999-06-01

    This paper discusses the system design for a Technology Assessment (TA) tool that can be used to quantitatively evaluate new and advanced technologies, products, or processes. Key features of the tool include organization of information in an indentured hierarchy; questions and categories derived from the decomposition of technology performance; segregation of life-cycle issues into six assessment categories; and scoring, relative impact, and sensitivity analysis capability. An advantage of the tool's use is its ability to provide decision analysis data, based on incomplete or complete data.

  17. Technology Assessment Tool - An Application of Systems Engineering to USDOE Technology Proposals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rynearson, Michael Ardel

    1999-06-01

    This paper discusses the system design for a Technology Assessment (TA) tool that can be used to quantitatively evaluate new and advanced technologies, products, or processes. Key features of the tool include organization of information in an indentured hierarchy; questions and categories derived from the decomposition of technology performance; segregation of life-cycle issues into six assessment categories; and scoring, relative impact, and sensitivity analysis capability. An advantage of the tool's use is its ability to provide decision analysis data, based on incomplete or complete data.

  18. Technology Assessment Tool - An Application of Systems Engineering to USDOE Technology Proposals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. A. Rynearson

    1999-06-01

    This paper discusses the system design of a Technology Assessment (TA) tool that can be used to quantitatively evaluate new and advanced technologies, products, or processes. Key features of the tool include organization of information in an indentured hierarchy; questions and categories derived from the decomposition of technology performance; segregation of life-cycle issues into six assessment categories; and scoring, relative impact, and sensitivity analysis capability. An advantage of the tool's use is its ability to provide decision analysis data, based on incomplete or complete data.

  19. Forecasting metal prices: Do forecasters herd?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pierdzioch, C.; Rulke, J. C.; Stadtmann, G.

    2013-01-01

    We analyze more than 20,000 forecasts of nine metal prices at four different forecast horizons. We document that forecasts are heterogeneous and report that anti-herding appears to be a source of this heterogeneity. Forecaster anti-herding reflects strategic interactions among forecasters...

  20. Theoretical basis for expert system to forecast and assess economic impact of anthropogenic pollution on population disease level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.I. Bublyk

    2014-09-01

    of cases is cumulative in nature and appears to the time delay, because the relationship between the results must include the time lag and indicators should be averaged over volumes actions for a specified period of time. Conclusions and directions of futher researches. Thus, the application of fuzzy sets for forecasting the national economy anthropogenic damage, manifested in the calculation of anthropogenic pollution (emissions, effluents, waste and study their impact on public health may have practical use in the development in the management of the national economy according methodological model of research, evaluation and regulation of man-made damage to the national economy. The results obtained will improve the efficiency of state regulation of the phenomenon, provide appropriate allocations for their eradication and compensation. Theoretical and practical aspects regarding the economic evaluation of man-made damage will be used in further research on developing an appropriate fuzzy expert system for predicting the study, collecting and analyzing data on the damage, loss and expense in different sectors of the national economy by sector and identifying technological losses (of man-made damage. The application of the proposed model will form not only an effective system of national economy, but also protection against predictable risks of technogenic emergency situations that may occur in a variety of sectors.

  1. Broadband Traffic Forecasting in the Transport Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valentina Radojičić

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a modification of traffic forecast model generated by residential and small business (SOHO, Small Office Home Office users. The model includes forecasted values of different relevant factors and competition on broadband market. It allows forecasting the number of users for various broadband technologies and interaction impact of long-standing technologies as well as the impact of the new technology entrant on the market. All the necessary parameters are evaluated for the Serbian broadband market. The long-term forecasted results of broadband traffic are given. The analyses and evaluations performed are important inputs for the transport network resources planning.

  2. Assessing the Performance of MODIS NDVI and EVI for Seasonal Crop Yield Forecasting at the Ecodistrict Scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louis Kouadio

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Crop yield forecasting plays a vital role in coping with the challenges of the impacts of climate change on agriculture. Improvements in the timeliness and accuracy of yield forecasting by incorporating near real-time remote sensing data and the use of sophisticated statistical methods can improve our capacity to respond effectively to these challenges. The objectives of this study were (i to investigate the use of derived vegetation indices for the yield forecasting of spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L. from the Moderate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS at the ecodistrict scale across Western Canada with the Integrated Canadian Crop Yield Forecaster (ICCYF; and (ii to compare the ICCYF-model based forecasts and their accuracy across two spatial scales-the ecodistrict and Census Agricultural Region (CAR, namely in CAR with previously reported ICCYF weak performance. Ecodistricts are areas with distinct climate, soil, landscape and ecological aspects, whereas CARs are census-based/statistically-delineated areas. Agroclimate variables combined respectively with MODIS-NDVI and MODIS-EVI indices were used as inputs for the in-season yield forecasting of spring wheat during the 2000–2010 period. Regression models were built based on a procedure of a leave-one-year-out. The results showed that both agroclimate + MODIS-NDVI and agroclimate + MODIS-EVI performed equally well predicting spring wheat yield at the ECD scale. The mean absolute error percentages (MAPE of the models selected from both the two data sets ranged from 2% to 33% over the study period. The model efficiency index (MEI varied between −1.1 and 0.99 and −1.8 and 0.99, respectively for the agroclimate + MODIS-NDVI and agroclimate + MODIS-EVI data sets. Moreover, significant improvement in forecasting skill (with decreasing MAPE of 40% and 5 times increasing MEI, on average was obtained at the finer, ecodistrict spatial scale, compared to the coarser CAR scale. Forecast

  3. HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT ON CERVICAL CANCER SCREENING, 2000–2014

    OpenAIRE

    Lahue, Betsy J.; Baginska, Eva; Li, Sophia S.; Parisi, Monika

    2015-01-01

    Objectives: The aim of this study was to conduct a review of health technology assessments (HTAs) in cervical cancer screening to highlight the most common metrics HTA agencies use to evaluate and recommend cervical cancer screening technologies. Methods: The Center for Reviews and Dissemination (CRD), MedLine, and national HTA agency databases were searched using keywords (“cervical cancer screening” OR “cervical cancer” OR “cervical screening”) and “HTA” from January 2000 to October 2014. N...

  4. Nutrition and health technology assessment: when two worlds meet

    OpenAIRE

    Poley, Marten J.

    2015-01-01

    There is a growing recognition that nutrition may have a positive impact on public health and that it may reduce medical expenditures. Yet, such claims need to be substantiated by evidence. This evidence could be delivered by health technology assessment (HTA), which can be thought of as the evaluation of technologies for clinical effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and ethical, legal, and social impacts. The application of HTA to the field of “nutrition interventions” is recent. So far, HTA a...

  5. Earthquake forecasting and its verification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. R. Holliday

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available No proven method is currently available for the reliable short time prediction of earthquakes (minutes to months. However, it is possible to make probabilistic hazard assessments for earthquake risk. In this paper we discuss a new approach to earthquake forecasting based on a pattern informatics (PI method which quantifies temporal variations in seismicity. The output, which is based on an association of small earthquakes with future large earthquakes, is a map of areas in a seismogenic region ('hotspots'' where earthquakes are forecast to occur in a future 10-year time span. This approach has been successfully applied to California, to Japan, and on a worldwide basis. Because a sharp decision threshold is used, these forecasts are binary--an earthquake is forecast either to occur or to not occur. The standard approach to the evaluation of a binary forecast is the use of the relative (or receiver operating characteristic (ROC diagram, which is a more restrictive test and less subject to bias than maximum likelihood tests. To test our PI method, we made two types of retrospective forecasts for California. The first is the PI method and the second is a relative intensity (RI forecast based on the hypothesis that future large earthquakes will occur where most smaller earthquakes have occurred in the recent past. While both retrospective forecasts are for the ten year period 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2009, we performed an interim analysis 5 years into the forecast. The PI method out performs the RI method under most circumstances.

  6. Technological Implications for Assessment Ecosystems: Opportunities for Digital Technology to Advance Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behrens, John T.; DiCerbo, Kristen E.

    2014-01-01

    Background: It would be easy to think the technological shifts in the digital revolution are simple incremental progressions in societal advancement. However, the nature of digital technology is resulting in qualitative differences in nearly all parts of daily life. Purpose: This paper investigates how the new possibilities for understanding,…

  7. Interactive Forecasting with the National Weather Service River Forecast System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, George F.; Page, Donna

    1993-01-01

    The National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) consists of several major hydrometeorologic subcomponents to model the physics of the flow of water through the hydrologic cycle. The entire NWSRFS currently runs in both mainframe and minicomputer environments, using command oriented text input to control the system computations. As computationally powerful and graphically sophisticated scientific workstations became available, the National Weather Service (NWS) recognized that a graphically based, interactive environment would enhance the accuracy and timeliness of NWS river and flood forecasts. Consequently, the operational forecasting portion of the NWSRFS has been ported to run under a UNIX operating system, with X windows as the display environment on a system of networked scientific workstations. In addition, the NWSRFS Interactive Forecast Program was developed to provide a graphical user interface to allow the forecaster to control NWSRFS program flow and to make adjustments to forecasts as necessary. The potential market for water resources forecasting is immense and largely untapped. Any private company able to market the river forecasting technologies currently developed by the NWS Office of Hydrology could provide benefits to many information users and profit from providing these services.

  8. Health Monitoring System Technology Assessments: Cost Benefits Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kent, Renee M.; Murphy, Dennis A.

    2000-01-01

    The subject of sensor-based structural health monitoring is very diverse and encompasses a wide range of activities including initiatives and innovations involving the development of advanced sensor, signal processing, data analysis, and actuation and control technologies. In addition, it embraces the consideration of the availability of low-cost, high-quality contributing technologies, computational utilities, and hardware and software resources that enable the operational realization of robust health monitoring technologies. This report presents a detailed analysis of the cost benefit and other logistics and operational considerations associated with the implementation and utilization of sensor-based technologies for use in aerospace structure health monitoring. The scope of this volume is to assess the economic impact, from an end-user perspective, implementation health monitoring technologies on three structures. It specifically focuses on evaluating the impact on maintaining and supporting these structures with and without health monitoring capability.

  9. Guidelines for the assessment and optimization of turboexpansion technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Albrecht, Philipp; Mastandrea, Martin [TECNA Estudios y Proyectos de Ingenieria S.A. (Argentina)

    2004-07-01

    The operating performance of a turbo expansion process depends on several factors among which we find: pressure, temperature and feed stream composition, expected recovery, pressure required for residual gas and products' specifications. The evolution of markets has set the development of several technologies; it is therefore complex, and rather impossible, to establish which of those technologies represents the most suitable choice for certain conditions by simply inspecting the above-mentioned factors. Guidelines for the assessment and optimization of available technologies are presented in this work. Also, relevant matters to be taken into account in the development of different units of a turbo expansion plant are mentioned. (author)

  10. Assessment of a satellite power system and six alternative technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wolsko, T.; Whitfield, R.; Samsa, M.; Habegger, L.S.; Levine, E.; Tanzman, E.

    1981-04-01

    The satellite power system is assessed in comparison to six alternative technologies. The alternatives are: central-station terrestrial photovoltaic systems, conventional coal-fired power plants, coal-gasification/combined-cycle power plants, light water reactor power plants, liquid-metal fast-breeder reactors, and fusion. The comparison is made regarding issues of cost and performance, health and safety, environmental effects, resources, socio-economic factors, and insitutional issues. The criteria for selecting the issues and the alternative technologies are given, and the methodology of the comparison is discussed. Brief descriptions of each of the technologies considered are included. (LEW)

  11. The contribution of health technology assessment, health needs assessment, and health impact assessment to the assessment and translation of technologies in the field of public health genomics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenkötter, N; Vondeling, H; Blancquaert, I; Mekel, O C L; Kristensen, F B; Brand, A

    2011-01-01

    The European Union has named genomics as one of the promising research fields for the development of new health technologies. Major concerns with regard to these fields are, on the one hand, the rather slow and limited translation of new knowledge and, on the other hand, missing insights into the impact on public health and health care practice of those technologies that are actually introduced. This paper aims to give an overview of the major assessment instruments in public health [health technology assessment (HTA), health needs assessment (HNA) and health impact assessment (HIA)] which could contribute to the systematic translation and assessment of genomic health applications by focussing at population level and on public health policy making. It is shown to what extent HTA, HNA and HIA contribute to translational research by using the continuum of translational research (T1-T4) in genomic medicine as an analytic framework. The selected assessment methodologies predominantly cover 2 to 4 phases within the T1-T4 system. HTA delivers the most complete set of methodologies when assessing health applications. HNA can be used to prioritize areas where genomic health applications are needed or to identify infrastructural needs. HIA delivers information on the impact of technologies in a wider scope and promotes informed decision making. HTA, HNA and HIA provide a partly overlapping and partly unique set of methodologies and infrastructure for the translation and assessment of genomic health applications. They are broad in scope and go beyond the continuum of T1-T4 translational research regarding policy translation.

  12. Gulf of Mexico Ecological Forecasting - Atlantic Bluefin Tuna Population Assessment and Management using Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laygo, K.; Jones, I.; Huerta, J.; Holt, B.

    2010-12-01

    Atlantic Bluefin Tuna (Thunnus thynnus) is one of the largest vertebrates in the world and is in high demand in sushi markets. It is a highly political species and is managed internationally by the International Commission for the Conservation of Atlantic Tuna. The Gulf of Mexico and the Mediterranean Sea are the only two known spawning sites in the world. However, there is a large variance in estimates of adult Atlantic Tuna spawning. This research focuses on extending Earth science research results to existing decision-making systems, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS)for population assessment and management of Atlantic Bluefin Tuna. The research team is a multi-sector and multi-disciplinary team composed of government (NOAA_NMFS), academic (University of South Florida Institute for Marine Remote Sensing) and commercial (Roffer’s Ocean Fishing Forecasting Service, Inc.) institutions. Their goal is to reduce the variance in the estimates of adult Bluefin Tuna spawning stock abundance in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). Therefore, this paper will be derived from the innovative use of several earth orbiting satellites focusing on the use of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data to identify Sargassum, which is a floating marine algae that may be relevant to the presence of Bluefin Tuna aggregations. The SAR imagery will be examined in combination with MODIS and MERIS Chlorophyll-a products to detect fine-scale surface current shear, eddy and frontal features, as well as biological slicks due to the presence of Sargassum. In addition, wind records from NOAA buoy data will be studied to analyze wind patterns in the Gulf of Mexico. The fine-resolution, all-weather capabilities of SAR provide a valuable complement to optical/IR sensors, which are often impacted by cloud cover. This study will provide an assessment of whether or not SAR can contribute to decision support efforts relevant to commercial fisheries

  13. Review of early assessment models of innovative medical technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fasterholdt, Iben; Krahn, Murray D; Kidholm, Kristian

    2017-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Hospitals increasingly make decisions regarding the early development of and investment in technologies, but a formal evaluation model for assisting hospitals early on in assessing the potential of innovative medical technologies is lacking. This article provides an overview of models...... for early assessment in different health organisations and discusses which models hold most promise for hospital decision makers. METHODS: A scoping review of published studies between 1996 and 2015 was performed using nine databases. The following information was collected: decision context, decision...... problem, and a description of the early assessment model. RESULTS: 2362 articles were identified and 12 studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. An additional 12 studies were identified and included in the review by searching reference lists. The majority of the 24 early assessment studies were variants...

  14. Sustainability assessment of energy technologies. Towards an integrative framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grunwald, Armin; Roesch, Christine [Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen (DE). Inst. for Technology Assessment and Systems Analysis (ITAS)

    2011-12-15

    To be able to design and use energy technologies with regard to the needs of sustainable development, sustainability assessments are necessary prior to the respective decisions. However, as is known, they pose methodological problems: from the difficulties of anticipation of future developments via the determination of assessment criteria through to the necessity to define sustainable development accurately enough. In this contribution, we will introduce an integrative sustainability concept which has hardly been discussed in the energy context. We will analyse this concept with respect to deriving general principles for the sustainability assessment of energy technologies. As a case study, we consider in particular the field of the use of grassland for biomass production for energetic purposes. The integrative concept is shown to provide an overall framework to carry out comprehensible and, above all, comparative sustainability assessments. More or less as a by-product, it can be demonstrated that sustainability means also in the energy sector much more than just environmental compatibility. (orig.)

  15. Health technology assessment in Iran: challenges and views.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olyaeemanesh, Alireza; Doaee, Shila; Mobinizadeh, Mohammadreza; Nedjati, Mina; Aboee, Parisa; Emami-Razavi, Seyed Hassan

    2014-01-01

    Various decisions have been made on technology application at all levels of the health system in different countries around the world. Health technology assessment is considered as one of the best scientific tools at the service of policy- makers. This study attempts to investigate the current challenges of Iran's health technology assessment and provide appropriate strategies to establish and institutionalize this program. This study was carried out in two independent phases. In the first, electronic databases such as Medline (via Pub Med) and Scientific Information Database (SID) were searched to provide a list of challenges of Iran's health technology assessment. The views and opinions of the experts and practitioners on HTA challenges were studied through a questionnaire in the second phase which was then analyzed by SPSS Software version 16. This has been an observational and analytical study with a thematic analysis. In the first phase, seven papers were retrieved; from which, twenty- two HTA challenges in Iran were extracted by the researchers; and they were used as the base for designing a structured questionnaire of the second phase. The views of the experts on the challenges of health technology assessment were categorized as follows: organizational culture, stewardship, stakeholders, health system management, infrastructures and external pressures which were mentioned in more than 60% of the cases and were also common in the views. The identification and prioritization of HTA challenges which were approved by those experts involved in the strategic planning of the Department of Health Technology Assessment will be a step forward in the promotion of an evidence- based policy- making and in the production of comprehensive scientific evidence.

  16. Assessment of storm forecast

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Huus Bjerge, Martin

    When wind speed exceeds a certain value, wind turbines shut-down in order to protect their structure. This leads to sudden wind plants shut down and to new challenges concerning the secure operation of the pan-European electric system with future large scale offshore wind power. This task aims at...

  17. Effect of advanced aircraft noise reduction technology on the 1990 projected noise environment around Patrick Henry Airport. [development of noise exposure forecast contours for projected traffic volume and aircraft types

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cawthorn, J. M.; Brown, C. G.

    1974-01-01

    A study has been conducted of the future noise environment of Patric Henry Airport and its neighboring communities projected for the year 1990. An assessment was made of the impact of advanced noise reduction technologies which are currently being considered. These advanced technologies include a two-segment landing approach procedure and aircraft hardware modifications or retrofits which would add sound absorbent material in the nacelles of the engines or which would replace the present two- and three-stage fans with a single-stage fan of larger diameter. Noise Exposure Forecast (NEF) contours were computed for the baseline (nonretrofitted) aircraft for the projected traffic volume and fleet mix for the year 1990. These NEF contours are presented along with contours for a variety of retrofit options. Comparisons of the baseline with the noise reduction options are given in terms of total land area exposed to 30 and 40 NEF levels. Results are also presented of the effects on noise exposure area of the total number of daily operations.

  18. The NICE ADHD health technology assessment: A review and critique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schlander Michael

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Health technology assessments (HTAs by the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE enjoy high levels of international attention. The present analysis addresses NICE's appraisal of methylphenidate, atomoxetine and dexamphetamine for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD in children and adolescents, published in March 2006. Methods A qualitative study of NICE Technology Appraisal No. 98 was done focusing on the >600-page technology assessment report, which aimed at evaluating ADHD treatment strategies by a clinical effectiveness review and an economic analysis using meta-analytical techniques and a cost-effectiveness model. Results The technology assessment was unable to differentiate between the various drugs in terms of efficacy, and its economic model was ultimately driven by cost differences. While the assessment concluded that the economic model "clearly identified an optimal treatment strategy" with first-line dexamphetamine, the NICE appraisal committee subsequently found it impossible to distinguish between the different strategies on grounds of cost-effectiveness. Analyzing the assessment reveals gaps and inconsistencies concerning data selection (ultimately relying on a small number of short-term studies only, data synthesis (pooling of heterogeneous study designs and clinical endpoints, and economic model structure (identifying double-counting of nonresponders as a likely source of bias, alongside further methodological anomalies. Conclusion Many conclusions of the NICE technology assessment rest on shaky grounds. There remains a need for a new, state-of-the-art systematic review of ADHD treatment strategies including economic evaluation, which ideally should address outcomes beyond children's health-related quality of life, such as long-term sequelae of the disorder and caregiver burden.

  19. Assessing the forecasting performance of a generic Bio-Economic farm model calibrated with two different PMP variants

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kanellopoulos, A.; Berentsen, Paul; Heckelei, T.; Ittersum, van M.K.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.

    2010-01-01

    Using linear programming in bio-economic farm modelling often results in overspecialised model solutions. The positive mathematical programming (PMP) approach guarantees exact calibration to base year data but the forecasting capacity of the model is affected by necessary but arbitrary assumptions

  20. Error Assessment of Solar Irradiance Forecasts and AC Power from Energy Conversion Model in Grid-Connected Photovoltaic Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gianfranco Chicco

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Availability of effective estimation of the power profiles of photovoltaic systems is essential for studying how to increase the share of intermittent renewable sources in the electricity mix of many countries. For this purpose, weather forecasts, together with historical data of the meteorological quantities, provide fundamental information. The weak point of the forecasts depends on variable sky conditions, when the clouds successively cover and uncover the solar disc. This causes remarkable positive and negative variations in the irradiance pattern measured at the photovoltaic (PV site location. This paper starts from 1 to 3 days-ahead solar irradiance forecasts available during one year, with a few points for each day. These forecasts are interpolated to obtain more irradiance estimations per day. The estimated irradiance data are used to classify the sky conditions into clear, variable or cloudy. The results are compared with the outcomes of the same classification carried out with the irradiance measured in meteorological stations at two real PV sites. The occurrence of irradiance spikes in “broken cloud” conditions is identified and discussed. From the measured irradiance, the Alternating Current (AC power injected into the grid at two PV sites is estimated by using a PV energy conversion model. The AC power errors resulting from the PV model with respect to on-site AC power measurements are shown and discussed.

  1. Forecasting resource-allocation decisions under climate uncertainty: fire suppression with assessment of net benefits of research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Geoffrey H. Donovan

    2008-01-01

    Making input decisions under climate uncertainty often involves two-stage methods that use expensive and opaque transfer functions. This article describes an alternative, single-stage approach to such decisions using forecasting methods. The example shown is for preseason fire suppression resource contracting decisions faced by the United States Forest Service. Two-...

  2. Assessing the forecasting performance of a generic Bio-Economic farm model calibrated with two different PMP variants

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kanellopoulos, A.; Berentsen, Paul; Heckelei, T.; Ittersum, van M.K.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.

    2010-01-01

    Using linear programming in bio-economic farm modelling often results in overspecialised model solutions. The positive mathematical programming (PMP) approach guarantees exact calibration to base year data but the forecasting capacity of the model is affected by necessary but arbitrary assumptions i

  3. General forecasting correcting formula

    OpenAIRE

    Harin, Alexander

    2009-01-01

    A general forecasting correcting formula, as a framework for long-use and standardized forecasts, is created. The formula provides new forecasting resources and new possibilities for expansion of forecasting including economic forecasting into the areas of municipal needs, middle-size and small-size business and, even, to individual forecasting.

  4. General forecasting correcting formula

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    A general forecasting correcting formula, as a framework for long-use and standardized forecasts, is created. The formula provides new forecasting resources and new possibilities for expansion of forecasting including economic forecasting into the areas of municipal needs, middle-size and small-size business and, even, to individual forecasting.

  5. Teknologvurdering, Broer og Brugere (Technology Assessment: Bridges and Users)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Munch, Birgitte

    A critique of the scientific approaches grounding Danish technology assessments for beingnon-reflexive upon the consequences of its biased treatment of who and how some countsas ‘users'. Implications and new approaches are outlined in a story of engineering designers conceptualization of ships...

  6. Assessment, Technology and Democratic Education in the Age of Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perrotta, Carlo

    2013-01-01

    This paper contends that powerful techniques to manipulate data, enabled by technological and economic developments, can be easily co-opted to serve the restrictive frameworks of hyper-controlling, managerial accountability that characterise current cultures of summative assessment in education. In response to these challenges, research is…

  7. Nutrition and health technology assessment: When two worlds meet

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.J. Poley (Marten)

    2015-01-01

    textabstractThere is a growing recognition that nutrition may have a positive impact on public health and that it may reduce medical expenditures. Yet, such claims need to be substantiated by evidence. This evidence could be delivered by health technology assessment (HTA), which can be thought of as

  8. Integrating ethics in health technology assessment: many ways to Rome

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hofmann, B.; Oortwijn, W.; Lysdahl, K. Bakke; Refolo, P.; Sacchini, D.; Wilt, G.J. van der; Gerhardus, A.

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to identify and discuss appropriate approaches to integrate ethical inquiry in health technology assessment (HTA). METHODS: The key question is how ethics can be integrated in HTA. This is addressed in two steps: by investigating what it means to integrate ethic

  9. Mapping of health technology assessment in selected countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oortwijn, W.; Broos, P.; Vondeling, H.; Banta, D.; Todorova, L.

    2013-01-01

    Objectives: The aim of this study was to develop and apply an instrument to map the level of health technology assessment (HTA) development at country level in selected countries. We examined middle-income countries (Argentina, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Mexico, and Russia) and countries we

  10. Condition Assessment Technologies for Water Transmission and Distribution Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    As part of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) Aging Water Infrastructure Research Program, this research was conducted to identify and characterize the state of the technology for structural condition assessment of drinking water transmission and distribution syst...

  11. Developmental toxicity testing for safety assessment: new approaches and technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knudsen, Thomas B; Kavlock, Robert J; Daston, George P; Stedman, Donald; Hixon, Mary; Kim, James H

    2011-10-01

    The ILSI Health and Environmental Sciences Institute's Developmental and Reproductive Toxicology Technical Committee held a 2-day workshop entitled "Developmental Toxicology-New Directions" in April 2009. The fourth session of this workshop focused on new approaches and technologies for the assessment of developmental toxicology. This session provided an overview of the application of genomics technologies for developmental safety assessment, the use of mouse embryonic stem cells to capture data on developmental toxicity pathways, dynamical cell imaging of zebrafish embryos, the use of computation models of development pathways and systems, and finally, high-throughput in vitro approaches being utilized by the EPA ToxCast program. Issues discussed include the challenges of anchoring in vitro predictions to relevant in vivo endpoints and the need to validate pathway-based predictions with targeted studies in whole animals. Currently, there are 10,000 to 30,000 chemicals in world-wide commerce in need of hazard data for assessing potential health risks. The traditional animal study designs for assessing developmental toxicity cannot accommodate the evaluation of this large number of chemicals, requiring that alternative technologies be utilized. Though a daunting task, technologies are being developed and utilized to make that goal reachable. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Early phase Technology Assessment of nanotechnology in oncology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Retèl, Valesca P.; Hummel, Marjan J.M.; Harten, van Willem H.

    2008-01-01

    To perform early Technology Assessment (TA) of nanotechnology in oncology. The possibilities of nanotechnology for detection (imaging), diagnosis and treatment of cancer are subject of different research programs where major investments are concerned. As a range of bio- nanotechnologies is expected

  13. Technology assessment of automation trends in the modular home industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phil Mitchell; Robert Russell Hurst

    2009-01-01

    This report provides an assessment of technology used in manufacturing modular homes in the United States, and that used in the German prefabricated wooden home industry. It is the first step toward identifying the research needs in automation and manufacturing methods that will facilitate mass customization in the home manufacturing industry. Within the United States...

  14. Reimbursement of pharmaceuticals: Reference pricing versus health technology assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Drummond (Michael); B. Jönsson (Bengt); F.F.H. Rutten (Frans); T. Stargardt (Tom)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractReference pricing and health technology assessment are policies commonly applied in order to obtain more value for money from pharmaceuticals. This study focussed on decisions about the initial price and reimbursement status of innovative drugs and discussed the consequences for market a

  15. Framework for dementia Quality of Life assessment with Assistive Technology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Peterson, Carrie Beth; Prasad, Neeli R.; Prasad, Ramjee

    2010-01-01

    This paper proposes a theoretical framework for a Quality of Life (QOL) evaluation tool that is sensitive, flexible, computerized, and specific to assistive technology (AT) for dementia care. Using the appropriate evaluation tool serves to improve methodologies that are used for AT assessment...

  16. The Post-implementation Assessment of Advanced Technology Utilization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hynek Josef

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Efficient utilization of advanced manufacturing technology is usually seen as one of the crucial factors in achieving competitiveness on global markets. On the other hand, there are many problems associated with the advanced technology utilization. These problems could be related to the individual phases of the relevant project life cycle - starting from the early stages of AMT projects preparation and evaluation, through various problems related to the project implementation, its integration within the company environment, up to the issues related to the efficient utilization of the already deployed system. This paper focuses on the final stage of this processwhen the post-implementation assessment should be carried out in order to determine whether all initial expectations and objectives were met and whether all the originally promised benefits were delivered. Typical problems of technology benefits evaluation together with various methods, concepts as well as metrics used in the process of the assessment will be discussed here in particular.

  17. Quantile forecast discrimination ability and value

    CERN Document Server

    Bouallegue, Zied Ben; Friederichs, Petra

    2015-01-01

    While probabilistic forecast verification for categorical forecasts is well established, some of the existing concepts and methods have not found their equivalent for the case of continuous variables. New tools dedicated to the assessment of forecast discrimination ability and forecast value are introduced here, based on quantile forecasts being the base product for the continuous case (hence in a nonparametric framework). The relative user characteristic (RUC) curve and the quantile value plot allow analysing the performance of a forecast for a specific user in a decision-making framework. The RUC curve is designed as a user-based discrimination tool and the quantile value plot translates forecast discrimination ability in terms of economic value. The relationship between the overall value of a quantile forecast and the respective quantile skill score is also discussed. The application of these new verification approaches and tools is illustrated based on synthetic datasets, as well as for the case of global...

  18. Accuracy of forecasts in strategic intelligence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandel, David R; Barnes, Alan

    2014-07-29

    The accuracy of 1,514 strategic intelligence forecasts abstracted from intelligence reports was assessed. The results show that both discrimination and calibration of forecasts was very good. Discrimination was better for senior (versus junior) analysts and for easier (versus harder) forecasts. Miscalibration was mainly due to underconfidence such that analysts assigned more uncertainty than needed given their high level of discrimination. Underconfidence was more pronounced for harder (versus easier) forecasts and for forecasts deemed more (versus less) important for policy decision making. Despite the observed underconfidence, there was a paucity of forecasts in the least informative 0.4-0.6 probability range. Recalibrating the forecasts substantially reduced underconfidence. The findings offer cause for tempered optimism about the accuracy of strategic intelligence forecasts and indicate that intelligence producers aim to promote informativeness while avoiding overstatement.

  19. Information Forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanneman, Gerhard J.

    Information forecasting provides a means of anticipating future message needs of a society or predicting the necessary types of information that will allow smooth social functioning. Periods of unrest and uncertainty in societies contribute to "societal information overload," whereby an abundance of information channels can create communication…

  20. Integration of tablet technologies in the e-laboratory of cytology: a health technology assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giansanti, Daniele; Pochini, Marco; Giovagnoli, Maria Rosaria

    2014-10-01

    Although tablet systems are becoming a powerful technology, particularly useful in every application of medical imaging, to date no one has investigated the acceptance and performance of this technology in digital cytology. The specific aims of the work were (1) to design a health technology assessment (HTA) tool to assess, in terms of performance and acceptance, the introduction of tablet technologies (wearable, portable, and non portable) in the e-laboratories of cytology and (2) to test the tool in a first significant application of digital cytology. An HTA tool was proposed operating on a domain of five dimensions of investigation comprising the basic information of the product of digital cytology, the perceived subjective quality of images, the assessment of the virtual navigation on the e-slide, the assessment of the information and communication technologies features, and the diagnostic power. Six e-slides regarding studies of cervicovaginal cytology digitalized by means of an Aperio ( www.aperio.com ) scanner and uploaded onto the www.digitalslide.it Web site were used for testing the methodology on three different network connections. Three experts of cytology successfully tested the methodology on seven tablets found suitable for the study in their own standard configuration. Specific indexes furnished by the tool indicated both a high degree of performance and subjective acceptance of the investigated technology. The HTA tool thus could be useful to investigate new tablet technologies in digital cytology and furnish stakeholders with useful information that may help them make decisions involving the healthcare system. From a global point of view the study demonstrates the feasibility of using the tablet technology in digital cytology.

  1. Early phase Technology Assessment of nanotechnology in oncology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Retèl, Valesca P; Hummel, Marjan J M; van Harten, Willem H

    2008-01-01

    To perform early Technology Assessment (TA) of nanotechnology in oncology. The possibilities of nanotechnology for detection (imaging), diagnosis and treatment of cancer are subject of different research programs where major investments are concerned. As a range of bio- nanotechnologies is expected to enter the oncology field it is relevant to consider the various aspects involved in especially early TA. This article provides two cases of early assessment of (predecessors of) nanotechnologies: Microarray Analysis and Photodynamic Therapy implementation, which methodology can be extrapolated to other nanotechnologies in oncology. Constructive Technology Assessment (CTA) is used for the introduction of technologies that are still in a dynamic phase of development or in an early stage of diffusion. The selection of studied aspects in CTA is based on: clinical aspects (safety, efficacy, and effectiveness), economic (cost-effectiveness), patient related (QoL, ethical/juridical and psychosocial), organizational aspects (diffusion and adoption) and scenario drafting. The features of the technology and the phase of implementation are decisive for choices and timing of the specific aspects to be studied. A framework was drafted to decide on the relevant aspects. In the first case, early implementation of Microarray Analysis; clinical effectiveness, logistics, patient centeredness and scenario drafting were given priority. Related to the diffusion-phase of Photodynamic Therapy however other aspects were evaluated, such as early cost-effectiveness analysis for possible reimbursement. Often CTA will result in a mixed method design. Especially scenario drafting is a powerful instrument to predict possible developments that can be anticipated upon in the assessment. CTA is appropriate for the study of early implementation of new technologies in oncology. In early TA small series often necessitate a mix of quantitative and qualitative methods. The features of nanotechnology

  2. Human factors assessments of innovative technologies: Robotics sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moran, J.B. [Operating Engineers National Hazmat Program, Beaver, WV (United States)

    1997-12-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has funded major environmental technology developments over the past several years. One area that received significant attention is robotics, which has resulted in the development of a wide range of unique robotic systems tailored to the many tasks unique to the DOE complex. These systems are often used in highly hazardous environments, which reduces or eliminates worker exposures. The DOE, concurrent with the technology development initiative, also established and funded a 5-yr cooperative agreement intended to interface with the technology development community-with specific attention to the occupational safety and health aspects associated with individual technologies through human factors and hazard assessments. This program is now in its third year.

  3. Readings in technology assessment. [in relation to social impact and the law

    Science.gov (United States)

    1975-01-01

    Papers are presented which reflect research in the following areas: development of the concept of technology assessment; institutionalization of technology assessment; the interface between law and technology assessment; and assessment case studies. Case studies include hazards of the medical use of X-rays, environmental noise effects in transportation planning, genetic technology, impact of underground coal mining, and aircraft/airport noise abatement.

  4. SEASAT economic assessment. Volume 9: Ports and harbors case study and generalization. [economic benefits of SEASAT satellites to harbors and shipping industries through improved weather forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    1975-01-01

    This case study and generalization quantify benefits made possible through improved weather forecasting resulting from the integration of SEASAT data into local weather forecasts. The major source of avoidable economic losses to shipping from inadequate weather forecasting data is shown to be dependent on local precipitation forecasting. The ports of Philadelphia and Boston were selected for study.

  5. DECISION ANALYSIS AND TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENTS FOR METAL AND MASONRY DECONTAMINATION TECHNOLOGIES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M.A. Ebadian, Ph.D.

    1999-01-01

    The purpose of this investigation was to conduct a comparative analysis of innovative technologies for the non-aggressive removal of coatings from metal and masonry surfaces and the aggressive removal of one-quarter to one-inch thickness of surface from structural masonry. The technologies tested should be capable of being used in nuclear facilities. Innovative decontamination technologies are being evaluated under standard, non-nuclear conditions at the FIU-HCET technology assessment site in Miami, Florida. This study is being performed to support the OST, the Deactivation and Decommissioning (D&D) Focus Area, and the environmental restoration of DOE facilities throughout the DOE complex by providing objective evaluations of currently available decontamination technologies.

  6. Methods of synthesizing qualitative research studies for health technology assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ring, Nicola; Jepson, Ruth; Ritchie, Karen

    2011-10-01

    Synthesizing qualitative research is an important means of ensuring the needs, preferences, and experiences of patients are taken into account by service providers and policy makers, but the range of methods available can appear confusing. This study presents the methods for synthesizing qualitative research most used in health research to-date and, specifically those with a potential role in health technology assessment. To identify reviews conducted using the eight main methods for synthesizing qualitative studies, nine electronic databases were searched using key terms including meta-ethnography and synthesis. A summary table groups the identified reviews by their use of the eight methods, highlighting the methods used most generally and specifically in relation to health technology assessment topics. Although there is debate about how best to identify and quality appraise qualitative research for synthesis, 107 reviews were identified using one of the eight main methods. Four methods (meta-ethnography, meta-study, meta-summary, and thematic synthesis) have been most widely used and have a role within health technology assessment. Meta-ethnography is the leading method for synthesizing qualitative health research. Thematic synthesis is also useful for integrating qualitative and quantitative findings. Four other methods (critical interpretive synthesis, grounded theory synthesis, meta-interpretation, and cross-case analysis) have been under-used in health research and their potential in health technology assessments is currently under-developed. Synthesizing individual qualitative studies has becoming increasingly common in recent years. Although this is still an emerging research discipline such an approach is one means of promoting the patient-centeredness of health technology assessments.

  7. Needed Actions within Defense Acquisitions Based on a Forecast of Future Mobile Information and Communications Technologies Deployed in Austere Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-01

    almost autonomously by interacting within its environment without human intervention (Gorcin & Arslan, 2008). Accordingly, networks are increasingly...technology: The first technological steps-sharp edges, fire, the wheel -took tens of thousands of years. For people living in this era, there was...Keeney, S., McKenna, H. (2000). Research Guidelines for the Delphi Survey Technique. Journal of Advanced Nursing , 32(4), 1008-1015. Hasson, F

  8. Technology Assessment and Roadmap for the Emergency Radiation Dose Assessment Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turteltaub, K W; Hartman-Siantar, C; Easterly, C; Blakely, W

    2005-10-03

    A Joint Interagency Working Group (JIWG) under the auspices of the Department of Homeland Security Office of Research and Development conducted a technology assessment of emergency radiological dose assessment capabilities as part of the overall need for rapid emergency medical response in the event of a radiological terrorist event in the United States. The goal of the evaluation is to identify gaps and recommend general research and development needs to better prepare the Country for mitigating the effects of such an event. Given the capabilities and roles for responding to a radiological event extend across many agencies, a consensus of gaps and suggested development plans was a major goal of this evaluation and road-mapping effort. The working group consisted of experts representing the Departments of Homeland Security, Health and Human Services (Centers for Disease Control and the National Institutes of Health), Food and Drug Administration, Department of Defense and the Department of Energy's National Laboratories (see appendix A for participants). The specific goals of this Technology Assessment and Roadmap were to: (1) Describe the general context for deployment of emergency radiation dose assessment tools following terrorist use of a radiological or nuclear device; (2) Assess current and emerging dose assessment technologies; and (3) Put forward a consensus high-level technology roadmap for interagency research and development in this area. This report provides a summary of the consensus of needs, gaps and recommendations for a research program in the area of radiation dosimetry for early response, followed by a summary of the technologies available and on the near-term horizon. We then present a roadmap for a research program to bring present and emerging near-term technologies to bear on the gaps in radiation dose assessment and triage. Finally we present detailed supporting discussion on the nature of the threats we considered, the status of

  9. Multiple criteria decision analysis for health technology assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thokala, Praveen; Duenas, Alejandra

    2012-12-01

    Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) has been suggested by some researchers as a method to capture the benefits beyond quality adjusted life-years in a transparent and consistent manner. The objectives of this article were to analyze the possible application of MCDA approaches in health technology assessment and to describe their relative advantages and disadvantages. This article begins with an introduction to the most common types of MCDA models and a critical review of state-of-the-art methods for incorporating multiple criteria in health technology assessment. An overview of MCDA is provided and is compared against the current UK National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence health technology appraisal process. A generic MCDA modeling approach is described, and the different MCDA modeling approaches are applied to a hypothetical case study. A comparison of the different MCDA approaches is provided, and the generic issues that need consideration before the application of MCDA in health technology assessment are examined. There are general practical issues that might arise from using an MCDA approach, and it is suggested that appropriate care be taken to ensure the success of MCDA techniques in the appraisal process. Copyright © 2012 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Technological and life cycle assessment of organics processing odour control technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bindra, Navin; Dubey, Brajesh; Dutta, Animesh

    2015-09-15

    As more municipalities and communities across developed world look towards implementing organic waste management programmes or upgrading existing ones, composting facilities are emerging as a popular choice. However, odour from these facilities continues to be one of the most important concerns in terms of cost & effective mitigation. This paper provides a technological and life cycle assessment of some of the different odour control technologies and treatment methods that can be implemented in organics processing facilities. The technological assessment compared biofilters, packed tower wet scrubbers, fine mist wet scrubbers, activated carbon adsorption, thermal oxidization, oxidization chemicals and masking agents. The technologies/treatment methods were evaluated and compared based on a variety of operational, usage and cost parameters. Based on the technological assessment it was found that, biofilters and packed bed wet scrubbers are the most applicable odour control technologies for use in organics processing faculties. A life cycle assessment was then done to compare the environmental impacts of the packed-bed wet scrubber system, organic (wood-chip media) bio-filter and inorganic (synthetic media) bio-filter systems. Twelve impact categories were assessed; cumulative energy demand (CED), climate change, human toxicity, photochemical oxidant formation, metal depletion, fossil depletion, terrestrial acidification, freshwater eutrophication, marine eutrophication, terrestrial eco-toxicity, freshwater eco-toxicity and marine eco-toxicity. The results showed that for all impact categories the synthetic media biofilter had the highest environmental impact, followed by the wood chip media bio-filter system. The packed-bed system had the lowest environmental impact for all categories.

  11. Uses and Applications of Climate Forecasts for Power Utilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Changnon, Stanley A.; Changnon, Joyce M.; Changnon, David

    1995-05-01

    The uses and potential applications of climate forecasts for electric and gas utilities were assessed 1) to discern needs for improving climate forecasts and guiding future research, and 2) to assist utilities in making wise use of forecasts. In-depth structured interviews were conducted with 56 decision makers in six utilities to assess existing and potential uses of climate forecasts. Only 3 of the 56 use forecasts. Eighty percent of those sampled envisioned applications of climate forecasts, given certain changes and additional information. Primary applications exist in power trading, load forecasting, fuel acquisition, and systems planning, with slight differences in interests between utilities. Utility staff understand probability-based forecasts but desire climatological information related to forecasted outcomes, including analogs similar to the forecasts, and explanations of the forecasts. Desired lead times vary from a week to three months, along with forecasts of up to four seasons ahead. The new NOAA forecasts initiated in 1995 provide the lead times and longer-term forecasts desired. Major hindrances to use of forecasts are hard-to-understand formats, lack of corporate acceptance, and lack of access to expertise. Recent changes in government regulations altered the utility industry, leading to a more competitive world wherein information about future weather conditions assumes much more value. Outreach efforts by government forecast agencies appear valuable to help achieve the appropriate and enhanced use of climate forecasts by the utility industry. An opportunity for service exists also for the private weather sector.

  12. Knowledge in health technology assessment: who, what, how?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tjørnhøj-Thomsen, Tine; Hansen, Helle Ploug

    2011-10-01

    Health systems are placing more and more emphasis on designing and delivering services that are focused on the patient, and there is a growing interest in patient aspects of health policy research and health technology assessment (HTA). Only a few HTA agencies use and invest in scientific methods to generate knowledge and evidence about the patient aspects of a given technology. This raises questions about how knowledge is produced in HTA reports and what kind of knowledge is considered relevant. This article uses a Danish HTA on patient education from 2009 as empirical material for a critical examination and discussion of knowledge and knowledge production about the patient aspects of HTA.

  13. Prioritizing Information Technology Investments: Assessing the Correlations among Technological Readiness, Information Technology Flexibility, and Information Technology Effectiveness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walter, John T.

    2010-01-01

    Management's dilemma, when allocating financial resources towards the improvement of technological readiness and IT flexibility within their organizations, is to control financial risk and maximize IT effectiveness. Technological readiness is people's propensity to embrace and use technology. Its drivers are optimism, innovativeness, discomfort,…

  14. System Safety Assessment Based on Past Incidents in Oil and Gas Industries: A Focused Approach in Forecasting of Minor, Severe, Critical, and Catastrophic Incidents, 2010–2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Praveen Patel

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Accident in an occupation which occurred due to series of repetitive minor incidents within the working environment. This work demonstrates the critical system safety assessment based on various incidents that took place to the different system and subsystem of two Indian oil refineries in five years of span 2010 to 2015. The categorization of incidents and hazard rate function of each incident category were classified and calculated. The result of Weibull analysis estimators in the form of scale and shape parameters provides useful information of incidents forecasting and their patterns in a particular time.

  15. Hanford Tank Farm Vapors Abatement Technology and Vendor Proposals Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burns, H. H. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Farrar, M. E. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Fink, S. D. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL)

    2016-09-20

    Suspected chemical vapor releases from the Hanford nuclear waste tank system pose concerns for worker exposure. Washington River Protection Solutions (WRPS) contracted the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) to explore abatement technologies and strategies to remediate the vapors emitted through the ventilation system. In response, SRNL conducted an evaluation of technologies to abate, or reduce, vapor emissions to below 10% of the recognized occupational exposure limits (OELs). The evaluation included a review of published literature and a broadly communicated Request for Information to commercial vendors through a Federal Business Opportunities (Fed Biz Opps) web posting. In addition, SRNL conducted a workshop and post-workshop conference calls with interested suppliers (vendors) to assess proposals of relevant technologies. This report reviews applicable technologies and summarizes the approaches proposed by the vendors who participated in the workshop and teleconference interviews. In addition, the report evaluates the estimated performance of the individual technologies for the various classes of chemical compounds present in the Hanford Chemicals of Potential Concern (COPCs) list. Similarly, the report provides a relative evaluation of the vendor proposed approaches against criteria of: technical feasibility (and maturity), design features, operational considerations, secondary waste generation, safety/regulatory, and cost / schedule. These rough order-of-magnitude (ROM) cost estimates are intended to provide a comparison basis between technologies and are not intended to be actual project estimates.

  16. Hanford Tank Farm Vapors Abatement Technology and Vendor Proposals Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burns, H. H. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Farrar, M. E. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL); Fink, S. D. [Savannah River Site (SRS), Aiken, SC (United States). Savannah River National Lab. (SRNL)

    2016-09-20

    Suspected chemical vapor releases from the Hanford nuclear waste tank system pose concerns for worker exposure. Washington River Protection Solutions (WRPS) contracted the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) to explore abatement technologies and strategies to remediate the vapors emitted through the ventilation system. In response, SRNL conducted an evaluation of technologies to abate, or reduce, vapor emissions to below 10% of the recognized occupational exposure limits (OELs). The evaluation included a review of published literature and a broadly communicated Request for Information to commercial vendors through a Federal Business Opportunities (Fed Biz Opps) web posting. In addition, SRNL conducted a workshop and post-workshop conference calls with interested suppliers (vendors) to assess proposals of relevant technologies. This report reviews applicable technologies and summarizes the approaches proposed by the vendors who participated in the workshop and teleconference interviews. In addition, the report evaluates the estimated performance of the individual technologies for the various classes of chemical compounds present in the Hanford Chemicals of Potential Concern (COPCs) list. Similarly, the report provides a relative evaluation of the vendor proposed approaches against criteria of: technical feasibility (and maturity), design features, operational considerations, secondary waste generation, safety/regulatory, and cost / schedule. These rough order magnitude (ROM) cost estimates are intended to provide a comparison basis between technologies and are not intended to be actual project estimates.

  17. Recent Life Assessment Technology for Existing Steam Turbines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saito, Kiyoshi; Sakuma, Akira; Fukuda, Masataka

    A large and growing portion of electricity is produced by aging thermal power plants. Although excellent, high quality materials such as CrMoV steel and 12% Cr steel, etc. are used for the steam turbines, various forms of metallurgical degradation, due to creep and fatigue, etc. affect the parts and components during long-term operation at high temperature. Extending the life of steam turbines and ensuring high reliability requires life assessment technology, scheduled repairing, conversion, modification and upgrading of components in order to provide a stable power supply. As the high temperature parts and components of aged steam turbines are mainly metallurgically damaged by creep, fatigue and the interaction of both, life assessment combined with analytical and nondestructive methods is essential for realizing strategic plant life extension. We have developed a life assessment technology that takes material degradation into consideration, and have applied the procedure to more than 650 units and 2500 components since 1983. A rotor bore replication device was developed in 1989 for the purpose of nondestructive observation of creep voids and supporting the validity of life prediction results. This paper describes the technical features and applied experience of recent life assessment technology for existing high temperature steam turbines.

  18. Skillful seasonal forecasts of Arctic sea ice retreat and advance dates in a dynamical forecast system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sigmond, M.; Reader, M. C.; Flato, G. M.; Merryfield, W. J.; Tivy, A.

    2016-12-01

    The need for skillful seasonal forecasts of Arctic sea ice is rapidly increasing. Technology to perform such forecasts with coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice systems has only recently become available, with previous skill evaluations mainly limited to area-integrated quantities. Here we show, based on a large set of retrospective ensemble model forecasts, that a dynamical forecast system produces skillful seasonal forecasts of local sea ice retreat and advance dates - variables that are of great interest to a wide range of end users. Advance dates can generally be skillfully predicted at longer lead times ( 5 months on average) than retreat dates ( 3 months). The skill of retreat date forecasts mainly stems from persistence of initial sea ice anomalies, whereas advance date forecasts benefit from longer time scale and more predictable variability in ocean temperatures. These results suggest that further investments in the development of dynamical seasonal forecast systems may result in significant socioeconomic benefits.

  19. The AviaDem forecasting model: illustration of a forecasting case at Amsterdam Schiphol Airport

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veldhuis, J.; Lieshout, R.

    2010-01-01

    The paper describes an aviation market forecasting model which focuses on market forecasts for airports. Most forecasting models in use today assess aviation trends resulting from macroeconomic trends. The model described in this paper has this feature built in, but the added value of this model is

  20. Assessing the Impact of Advanced Satellite Observations in the NASA GEOS-5 Forecast System Using the Adjoint Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelaro, Ron; Liu, Emily; Sienkiewicz, Meta

    2011-01-01

    The adjoint of a data assimilation system provides a flexible and efficient tool for estimating observation impacts on short-range weather forecasts. The impacts of any or all observations can be estimated simultaneously based on a single execution of the adjoint system. The results can be easily aggregated according to data type, location, channel, etc., making this technique especially attractive for examining the impacts of new hyper-spectral satellite instruments and for conducting regular, even near-real time, monitoring of the entire observing system. In this talk, we present results from the adjoint-based observation impact monitoring tool in NASA's GEOS-5 global atmospheric data assimilation and forecast system. The tool has been running in various off-line configurations for some time, and is scheduled to run as a regular part of the real-time forecast suite beginning in autumn 20 I O. We focus on the impacts of the newest components of the satellite observing system, including AIRS, IASI and GPS. For AIRS and IASI, it is shown that the vast majority of the channels assimilated have systematic positive impacts (of varying magnitudes), although some channels degrade the forecast. Of the latter, most are moisture-sensitive or near-surface channels. The impact of GPS observations in the southern hemisphere is found to be a considerable overall benefit to the system. In addition, the spatial variability of observation impacts reveals coherent patterns of positive and negative impacts that may point to deficiencies in the use of certain observations over, for example, specific surface types. When performed in conjunction with selected observing system experiments (OSEs), the adjoint results reveal both redundancies and dependencies between observing system impacts as observations are added or removed from the assimilation system. Understanding these dependencies appears to pose a major challenge for optimizing the use of the current observational network and

  1. Assessment of GHG mitigation technology measures in Ukraine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raptsoun, N.; Parasiouk, N.

    1996-12-31

    In June 1992 the representatives of 176 countries including Ukraine met in Rio de Janeiro at the UN Conference to coordinate its efforts in protecting and guarding the environment. Signature of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change by around 150 countries indicates that climate change is potentially a major threat to the world`s environment and economic development. The project {open_quotes}Country Study on Climate Change in Ukraine{close_quotes} coordinated by the Agency for Rational Energy Use and Ecology (ARENIA-ECO) and supported by the US Country Studies Program Support for Climate Change Studies. The aim of the project is to make the information related to climate change in Ukraine available for the world community by using the potential of Ukrainian research institutes for further concerted actions to solve the problem of climate change on the global scale. The project consists of four elements: (1) the development of the GHG Inventory in Ukraine; (2) assessments of ecosystems-vulnerability to climate change and adaptation options; and (3) mitigation options analysis; (4) public education and outreach activities. This paper contains the main results of the third element for the energy and non-energy sectors. Main tasks of the third element were: (1) to select, test and describe or develop the methodology for mitigation options assessment; (2) to analyze the main sources of GHG emissions in Ukraine; (3) to give the macro economic analysis of Ukrainian development and the development of main economical sectors industry, energy, transport, residential, forestry and agriculture; (4) to forecast GHG emissions for different scenarios of the economic development; and (5) to analyze the main measures to mitigate climate change.

  2. Teacher Learning of Technology-Enhanced Formative Assessment

    CERN Document Server

    Beatty, Ian D; Leonard, William J; Gerace, William J; Cyr, Karen St; Lee, Hyunju; Harris, Robby

    2008-01-01

    Technology-Enhanced Formative Assessment (TEFA) is a pedagogy for teaching with classroom response technology. Teacher Learning of TEFA is a five-year research project studying teacher change, in the context of an intensive professional development program designed to help science and mathematics teachers learn TEFA. First, we provide an overview of the project's participating teachers, its intervention (consisting of the technology, the pedagogy, and the professional development program), and its research design. Then, we present narratives describing the unfolding change process experienced by four teachers. Afterward, we present some preliminary findings of the research, describe a "model for the co-evolution of teacher and pedagogy" that we are developing, and identify general implications for professional development.

  3. Proposal for a state health technology assessment program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colmenares, Phil

    2012-08-01

    Evidence suggests that a significant number of medical technologies are of little or no benefit to patients. Under current budgetary pressures, state health care programs cannot afford continued spending on unnecessary medical care without further cuts in enrollment. Limiting coverage of high-tech care only to indications supported by good clinical evidence would help save state health care dollars. However, there is currently no public process to formally evaluate new medical interventions in Wisconsin. In fact, new therapies often are introduced into clinical practice, and covered by state health insurance programs, even when there is weak or questionable evidence of clinical effectiveness. This article proposes the creation of a state Health Technology Assessment program in Wisconsin to systematically evaluate new tests or treatments, and to promote evidence-based coverage decisions. Such a program would help limit wasteful spending on unnecessary technologies, reinforce good clinical practice, and protect patients from the risks of interventions that have not been proven effective.

  4. Technical and economic assessment of energy conversion technologies for MSW

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Livingston, W.R.

    2002-07-01

    Thermal processes for municipal solid wastes (MSW) based on pyrolysis and/or gasification that have relevance to the emerging UK market are described in this report, and the results of the technical and economical assessment of these processes are presented. The Mitsui R21 Technology, the Thermoselect Process, the Nippon Steel Waste Melting Process, the Pyropleq Process, and the Compact Power Process are selected for detailed comparison on the basis of the overall technical concept, the energy balance and the requirements for consumables, environmental performance, and the technical and commercial status of the technology. Details are also given of a comparison of the novel thermal technologies with conventional mass burn incineration for MSW.

  5. Logical Design of a Decision Support System to Forecast Technology, Prices and Costs for the National Communications System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1984-09-01

    digital services upon ISDN technology growth can be modeled. The DSS is executed with the impacts as subjective values and are defined as desirable...communications media cost =I’ 2. Number of ISDN trained personnel = ’PI 3. Ccmpetiticn to provide digital services = ’C’ 4. Growth rate of ISDN

  6. Performance and quality assessment of the recent updated CMEMS global ocean monitoring and forecasting real-time system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Galloudec, Olivier; Lellouche, Jean-Michel; Greiner, Eric; Garric, Gilles; Régnier, Charly; Drévillon, Marie; Drillet, Yann

    2017-04-01

    Since May 2015, Mercator Ocean opened the Copernicus Marine Environment and Monitoring Service (CMEMS) and is in charge of the global eddy resolving ocean analyses and forecast. In this context, Mercator Ocean currently delivers in real-time daily services (weekly analyses and daily forecast) with a global 1/12° high resolution system. The model component is the NEMO platform driven at the surface by the IFS ECMWF atmospheric analyses and forecasts. Observations are assimilated by means of a reduced-order Kalman filter with a 3D multivariate modal decomposition of the forecast error. It includes an adaptive-error estimate and a localization algorithm. Along track altimeter data, satellite Sea Surface Temperature and in situ temperature and salinity vertical profiles are jointly assimilated to estimate the initial conditions for numerical ocean forecasting. A 3D-Var scheme provides a correction for the slowly-evolving large-scale biases in temperature and salinity. R&D activities have been conducted at Mercator Ocean these last years to improve the real-time 1/12° global system for recent updated CMEMS version in 2016. The ocean/sea-ice model and the assimilation scheme benefited of the following improvements: large-scale and objective correction of atmospheric quantities with satellite data, new Mean Dynamic Topography taking into account the last version of GOCE geoid, new adaptive tuning of some observational errors, new Quality Control on the assimilated temperature and salinity vertical profiles based on dynamic height criteria, assimilation of satellite sea-ice concentration, new freshwater runoff from ice sheets melting, … This presentation will show the impact of some updates separately, with a particular focus on adaptive tuning experiments of satellite Sea Level Anomaly (SLA) and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) observations errors. For the SLA, the a priori prescribed observation error is globally greatly reduced. The median value of the error changed

  7. ECASTAR: Energy Conservation; an Assessment of Systems, Technologies and Requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    1975-01-01

    A methodology for a systems approach display and assessment of the potential for energy conservation actions and the impacts of those actions was presented. The U.S. economy is divided into four sectors: energy industry, industry, residential/commercial and transportation. Each sector is assessed with respect to energy conservation actions and impacts. The four sectors are combined and three strategies for energy conservation actions for the combined sectors are assessed. The three strategies (national energy conservation, electrification and diversification) represent energy conservation actions for the near term (now to 1985), the mid term (1985 to 2000) and the far term (2000 and beyond). The assessment procedure includes input/output analysis to bridge the flows between the sectors, and net economics and net energetics as performance criteria for the conservation actions. Targets of opportunity for large net energy net energy savings and the application of technology to achieve these savings are discussed.

  8. Implementation of Relevant Methods in Assessing Traffic-Technological Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danijela Barić

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available The assessment of investment traffic-technological projectsmeans a set of activities whose basic aim is to determine the justificationand feasibility of the projects. The decision-makingprocess, including the decision-making on investments is an extremelycomplex process, and the decision-maker has to have avision of the future and make decisions accordingly in a modemand flexible manner. Therefore, the decisions need to be theresult of a planning and research process based on relevant scientificmethods. The work includes the selected, analysed andpresented methods of cost-benefit analysis, methods of multi-criteria decision-making and SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses,Opportunities, and Threats analysis methods. Regarding thebasic characteristics, the mentioned methods have been compared,the order of their implementation has been determined,and then they have been implemented in assessing the traffic-technological projects of reconstmction with the aim of selectingthe optimal variant solution.

  9. Environmental assessment of solid waste systems and technologies: EASEWASTE

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kirkeby, Janus Torsten; Birgisdottir, Harpa; Hansen, Trine Lund

    2006-01-01

    to optimize current waste management systems with respect to environmental achievements and by authorities to Set Guidelines and regulations and to evaluate different strategies for handling of waste. The waste hierarchy has for decades been governing waste management but the ranking of handling approaches......A new model has been developed for evaluating the overall resource consumption and environmental impacts of municipal solid waste management systems by the use of life cycle assessment. The model is named EASEWASTE (Environmental Assessment of Solid Waste Systems and Technologies) and is able...... to compare different waste management strategies, waste treatment methods and waste process technologies. The potential environmental impacts can be traced back to the most important processes and waste fractions that contribute to the relevant impacts. A model like EASEWASTE can be used by waste planners...

  10. Hospital Based Health Technology Assessment: an example from Siena

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pietro Manzi

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The Health Technology Assessment (HTA has emerged in recent years as a useful tool in healthcare decision-making. It is a multidisciplinary process that summarizes information about the medical, social, economic and ethical issues related to the use of a health technology and provides evidence-based information on how to allocate resources. The experience of Siena University Hospital is an example of multidisciplinary hospital-based HTA. In the present paper we summarize the organization of HTA commission and the assessment methodology of the purchase, rental or sale of medical equipment and medical devices. Furthermore we illustrate the data concerning the commission activities in 2013.http://dx.doi.org/10.7175/fe.v16i1.943

  11. An assessment of Indian monsoon seasonal forecasts and mechanisms underlying monsoon interannual variability in the Met Office GloSea5-GC2 system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Stephanie J.; Turner, Andrew; Woolnough, Steven; Martin, Gill; MacLachlan, Craig

    2017-03-01

    We assess Indian summer monsoon seasonal forecasts in GloSea5-GC2, the Met Office fully coupled subseasonal to seasonal ensemble forecasting system. Using several metrics, GloSea5-GC2 shows similar skill to other state-of-the-art seasonal forecast systems. The prediction skill of the large-scale South Asian monsoon circulation is higher than that of Indian monsoon rainfall. Using multiple linear regression analysis we evaluate relationships between Indian monsoon rainfall and five possible drivers of monsoon interannual variability. Over the time period studied (1992-2011), the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) are the most important of these drivers in both observations and GloSea5-GC2. Our analysis indicates that ENSO and its teleconnection with Indian rainfall are well represented in GloSea5-GC2. However, the relationship between the IOD and Indian rainfall anomalies is too weak in GloSea5-GC2, which may be limiting the prediction skill of the local monsoon circulation and Indian rainfall. We show that this weak relationship likely results from a coupled mean state bias that limits the impact of anomalous wind forcing on SST variability, resulting in erroneous IOD SST anomalies. Known difficulties in representing convective precipitation over India may also play a role. Since Indian rainfall responds weakly to the IOD, it responds more consistently to ENSO than in observations. Our assessment identifies specific coupled biases that are likely limiting GloSea5-GC2 Indian summer monsoon seasonal prediction skill, providing targets for model improvement.

  12. An assessment of Indian monsoon seasonal forecasts and mechanisms underlying monsoon interannual variability in the Met Office GloSea5-GC2 system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Stephanie J.; Turner, Andrew; Woolnough, Steven; Martin, Gill; MacLachlan, Craig

    2016-06-01

    We assess Indian summer monsoon seasonal forecasts in GloSea5-GC2, the Met Office fully coupled subseasonal to seasonal ensemble forecasting system. Using several metrics, GloSea5-GC2 shows similar skill to other state-of-the-art seasonal forecast systems. The prediction skill of the large-scale South Asian monsoon circulation is higher than that of Indian monsoon rainfall. Using multiple linear regression analysis we evaluate relationships between Indian monsoon rainfall and five possible drivers of monsoon interannual variability. Over the time period studied (1992-2011), the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) are the most important of these drivers in both observations and GloSea5-GC2. Our analysis indicates that ENSO and its teleconnection with Indian rainfall are well represented in GloSea5-GC2. However, the relationship between the IOD and Indian rainfall anomalies is too weak in GloSea5-GC2, which may be limiting the prediction skill of the local monsoon circulation and Indian rainfall. We show that this weak relationship likely results from a coupled mean state bias that limits the impact of anomalous wind forcing on SST variability, resulting in erroneous IOD SST anomalies. Known difficulties in representing convective precipitation over India may also play a role. Since Indian rainfall responds weakly to the IOD, it responds more consistently to ENSO than in observations. Our assessment identifies specific coupled biases that are likely limiting GloSea5-GC2 Indian summer monsoon seasonal prediction skill, providing targets for model improvement.

  13. National Wind Technology Center sitewide, Golden, CO: Environmental assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-11-01

    The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), the nation`s primary solar and renewable energy research laboratory, proposes to expand its wind technology research and development program activities at its National Wind Technology Center (NWTC) near Golden, Colorado. NWTC is an existing wind energy research facility operated by NREL for the US Department of Energy (DOE). Proposed activities include the construction and reuse of buildings and facilities, installation of up to 20 wind turbine test sites, improvements in infrastructure, and subsequent research activities, technology testing, and site operations. In addition to wind turbine test activities, NWTC may be used to support other NREL program activities and small-scale demonstration projects. This document assesses potential consequences to resources within the physical, biological, and human environment, including potential impacts to: air quality, geology and soils, water resources, biological resources, cultural and historic resources, socioeconomic resources, land use, visual resources, noise environment, hazardous materials and waste management, and health and safety conditions. Comment letters were received from several agencies in response to the scoping and predecisional draft reviews. The comments have been incorporated as appropriate into the document with full text of the letters contained in the Appendices. Additionally, information from the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site on going sitewide assessment of potential environmental impacts has been reviewed and discussed by representatives of both parties and incorporated into the document as appropriate.

  14. An assessment of acid rock drainage continuous monitoring technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fytas, K.; Hadjigeorgiou, J.

    1995-02-01

    In order to assess the magnitude and impact at affected mine sites of acid rock drainage (ARD), fixed-frequency sampling is often employed. This often involves manual sampling, at regular time intervals, of water and solids. It is felt that such sampling does not adequately describe the system evolution. Continuous monitoring offers a viable alternative in that it can better follow the seasonal fluctuations and high-frequency variations that characterize ARD. This paper evaluates existing continuous monitoring technology.

  15. Preliminary technology utilization assessment of the robotic fruit harvester

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilhelm, J.

    1982-01-01

    The results of an analysis whose purpose was to examine the history and progress of mechanical fruit harvesting, to determine the significance of a robotic fruit tree harvester and to assess the available market for such a product are summarized. Background information that can be used in determining the benefit of a proof of principle demonstration is provided. Such a demonstration could be a major step toward the transfer of this NASA technology.

  16. Zero-emission vehicle technology assessment. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Woods, T.

    1995-08-01

    This is the final report in the Zero-Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Technology Assessment, performed for NYSERDA by Booz-Allen & Hamilton Inc. Booz-Allen wrote the final report, and performed the following tasks as part of the assessment: assembled a database of key ZEV organizations, their products or services, and plans; described the current state of ZEV technologies; identified barriers to widespread ZEV deployment and projected future ZEV technical capabilities; and estimated the cost of ZEVs from 1998 to 2004. Data for the ZEV Technology Assessment were obtained from several sources, including the following: existing ZEV industry publications and Booz-Allen files; major automotive original equipment manufacturers; independent electric vehicle manufacturers; battery developers and manufacturers; infrastructure and component developers and manufacturers; the U.S. Department of Energy, the California Air Resources Board, and other concerned government agencies; trade associations such as the Electric Power Research Institute and the Electric Transportation Coalition; and public and private consortia. These sources were contacted by phone, mail, or in person. Some site visits of manufacturers also were conducted. Where possible, raw data were analyzed by Booz-Allen staff and/or verified by independent sources. Performance data from standardized test cycles were used as much as possible.

  17. Technology and economic assessment of lactic acid production and uses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Datta, R.; Tsai, S.P.

    1996-03-01

    Lactic acid has been an intermediate-volume specialty chemical (world production {approximately}50,000 tons/yr) used in a wide range of food-processing and industrial applications. Potentially, it can become a very large-volume, commodity-chemical intermediate produced from carbohydrates for feedstocks of biodegradable polymers, oxygenated chemicals, environmentally friendly ``green`` solvents, and other intermediates. In the past, efficient and economical technologies for the recovery and purification of lactic acid from fermentation broths and its conversion to the chemical or polymer intermediates had been the key technology impediments and main process cost centers. Development and deployment of novel separations technologies, such as electrodialysis with bipolar membranes, extractive and catalytic distillations, and chemical conversion, can enable low-cost production with continuous processes in large-scale operations. The emerging technologies can use environmentally sound lactic acid processes to produce environmentally useful products, with attractive process economics. These technology advances and recent product and process commercialization strategies are reviewed and assessed.

  18. Assessing effects of technology usage on mathematics learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch, Julianne

    2006-12-01

    Computer-based technologies are now commonplace in classrooms, and the integration of these media into the teaching and learning of mathematics is supported by government policy in most developed countries. However, many questions about the impact of computer-based technologies on classroom mathematics learning remain unanswered, and debates about when and how they ought to be used continue. An increasing number of studies seek to identify the effects of technology usage on classroom learning, and at a time when governments are calling for `evidence-based' policy development, many studies applying quasi-scientific methodologies to this field of practice are emerging. By analysing a series of conceptual frameworks for assessing the use of computer-based technologies to support school learning, this article emphasises the value of research into the relationship between technical and conceptual aspects of technology use in mathematics education and beyond, and challenges the usefulness of large-scale, quasi-scientific studies that focus on educational inputs and outputs.

  19. Evaporation-precipitation variability over Indian Ocean and its assessment in NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pokhrel, Samir; Parekh, Anant; Saha, Subodh Kumar; Dhakate, Ashish; Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S. [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (India); Rahaman, Hasibur [Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services, Hyderabad (India); Gairola, Rakesh Mohan [Space Applications Centre, ISRO, Ahmedabad (India)

    2012-11-15

    An attempt has been made to explore all the facets of Evaporation-Precipitation (E-P) distribution and variability over the Indian Ocean (IO) basin using Objectively Analyzed air-sea Fluxes (OAFlux) data and subsequently a thorough assessment of the latest version of National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) version-2 is done. This study primarily focuses on two fundamental issues, first, the core issue of pervasive cold SST bias in the CFS simulation in the context of moisture flux exchange between the atmosphere and the ocean and second, the fidelity of the model in simulating mean and variability of E-P and its elemental components associated with the climatic anomalies occurring over the Indian and the Pacific ocean basin. Valuation of evaporation and precipitation, the two integral component of E-P, along with the similar details of wind speed, air-sea humidity difference ({Delta}Q) and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) are performed. CFS simulation is vitiated by the presence of basin wide systematic positive bias in evaporation, {Delta}Q and similar negative bias in wind speed and SST. Bifurcation of the evaporation bias into its components reveals that bias in air humidity (Q{sub a}) is basically responsible for the presence of pervasive positive evaporation bias. The regions where CFS does not adhere to the observed wind-evaporation and Q{sub a} -evaporation relation was found to lie over the northern Arabian Sea (AS), the western Bay of Bengal (BoB) and the western Equatorial IO. Evaporation bias is found to control a significant quantum of cold SST bias over most of the basin owing to its intimate association with SST in a coupled feedback system. This area is stretched over the almost entire north IO, north of 15 {sup circle} S excluding a small equatorial strip, where the evaporation bias may essentially explain 20-100 % of cold SST bias. This percentage is maximum over the western IO, central AS and BoB. The CFS

  20. A GM (1, 1 Markov Chain-Based Aeroengine Performance Degradation Forecast Approach Using Exhaust Gas Temperature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ning-bo Zhao

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Performance degradation forecast technology for quantitatively assessing degradation states of aeroengine using exhaust gas temperature is an important technology in the aeroengine health management. In this paper, a GM (1, 1 Markov chain-based approach is introduced to forecast exhaust gas temperature by taking the advantages of GM (1, 1 model in time series and the advantages of Markov chain model in dealing with highly nonlinear and stochastic data caused by uncertain factors. In this approach, firstly, the GM (1, 1 model is used to forecast the trend by using limited data samples. Then, Markov chain model is integrated into GM (1, 1 model in order to enhance the forecast performance, which can solve the influence of random fluctuation data on forecasting accuracy and achieving an accurate estimate of the nonlinear forecast. As an example, the historical monitoring data of exhaust gas temperature from CFM56 aeroengine of China Southern is used to verify the forecast performance of the GM (1, 1 Markov chain model. The results show that the GM (1, 1 Markov chain model is able to forecast exhaust gas temperature accurately, which can effectively reflect the random fluctuation characteristics of exhaust gas temperature changes over time.