WorldWideScience

Sample records for technology choice model

  1. Information Choice Technologies

    OpenAIRE

    Christian Hellwig; Sebastian Kohls; Laura Veldkamp

    2012-01-01

    Theories based on information costs or frictions have become increasing popular in macroeconomics and macro-finance. The literature has used various types of information choices, such as rational inattention, inattentiveness, information markets and costly precision. Using a unified framework, we compare these different information choice technologies and explain why some generate increasing returns and others, particularly those where agents choose how much public information to observe, gen...

  2. ParaChoice Model.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heimer, Brandon Walter [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Levinson, Rebecca Sobel [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); West, Todd H. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-12-01

    Analysis with the ParaChoice model addresses three barriers from the VTO Multi-Year Program Plan: availability of alternative fuels and electric charging station infrastructure, availability of AFVs and electric drive vehicles, and consumer reluctance to purchase new technologies. In this fiscal year, we first examined the relationship between the availability of alternative fuels and station infrastructure. Specifically, we studied how electric vehicle charging infrastructure affects the ability of EVs to compete with vehicles that rely on mature, conventional petroleum-based fuels. Second, we studied how the availability of less costly AFVs promotes their representation in the LDV fleet. Third, we used ParaChoice trade space analyses to help inform which consumers are reluctant to purchase new technologies. Last, we began analysis of impacts of alternative energy technologies on Class 8 trucks to isolate those that may most efficaciously advance HDV efficiency and petroleum use reduction goals.

  3. Predictors of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics choice options: A meta-analytic path analysis of the social-cognitive choice model by gender and race/ethnicity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lent, Robert W; Sheu, Hung-Bin; Miller, Matthew J; Cusick, Megan E; Penn, Lee T; Truong, Nancy N

    2018-01-01

    We tested the interest and choice portion of social-cognitive career theory (SCCT; Lent, Brown, & Hackett, 1994) in the context of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) domains. Data from 143 studies (including 196 independent samples) conducted over a 30-year period (1983 through 2013) were subjected to meta-analytic path analyses. The interest/choice model was found to fit the data well over all samples as well as within samples composed primarily of women and men and racial/ethnic minority and majority persons. The model also accounted for large portions of the variance in interests and choice goals within each path analysis. Despite the general predictive utility of SCCT across gender and racial/ethnic groups, we did find that several parameter estimates differed by group. We present both the group similarities and differences and consider their implications for future research, intervention, and theory refinement. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  4. A Balance Analysis of the Laborer-Producer Interactive Location Choice Model (ILCM)--A Micro-Base for Technology Diffusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ting, Liu

    The technology diffusion model has been an important aspect of research in regional economics. The existing models, however, are all weak in analysis on micro-foundations. This paper establishes an Interactive Location Choice Model (ILCM) by studying the labor and producer's behavior of optimal choice, showing that the labor forces flowing into certain enterprises for sake of optimal dwelling location will cause technology diffusion and this in turn will affect the producer's choice of location.

  5. Rational customs clearance technology choice

    OpenAIRE

    Shramenko, N.; Andriets, V.

    2008-01-01

    Issues concerning cargo delivery efficiencyincrease by choice of rational customs clearance technology have been considered. Three possible variants of customs clearance andmethods which allow to define the most rational version of cargo delivery in international road communication based on main efficiency criteria for definite distance have been presented.

  6. Choice of mathematical models for technological process of glass rod drawing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alekseeva, L. B.

    2017-10-01

    The technological process of drawing glass rods (light guides) is considered. Automated control of the drawing process is reduced to the process of making decisions to ensure a given quality. The drawing process is considered as a control object, including the drawing device (control device) and the optical fiber forming zone (control object). To study the processes occurring in the formation zone, mathematical models are proposed, based on the continuum mechanics basics. To assess the influence of disturbances, a transfer function is obtained from the basis of the wave equation. Obtaining the regression equation also adequately describes the drawing process.

  7. Comparison of Vehicle Choice Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stephens, Thomas S. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Levinson, Rebecca S. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Brooker, Aaron [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Liu, Changzheng [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Lin, Zhenhong [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Birky, Alicia [Energetics Incorporated, Columbia, MD (United States); Kontou, Eleftheria [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-10-31

    Five consumer vehicle choice models that give projections of future sales shares of light-duty vehicles were compared by running each model using the same inputs, where possible, for two scenarios. The five models compared — LVCFlex, MA3T, LAVE-Trans, ParaChoice, and ADOPT — have been used in support of the Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Vehicle Technologies Office in analyses of future light-duty vehicle markets under different assumptions about future vehicle technologies and market conditions. The models give projections of sales shares by powertrain technology. Projections made using common, but not identical, inputs showed qualitative agreement, with the exception of ADOPT. ADOPT estimated somewhat lower advanced vehicle shares, mostly composed of hybrid electric vehicles. Other models projected large shares of multiple advanced vehicle powertrains. Projections of models differed in significant ways, including how different technologies penetrated cars and light trucks. Since the models are constructed differently and take different inputs, not all inputs were identical, but were the same or very similar where possible. Projections by all models were in close agreement only in the first few years. Although the projections from LVCFlex, MA3T, LAVE-Trans, and ParaChoice were in qualitative agreement, there were significant differences in sales shares given by the different models for individual powertrain types, particularly in later years (2030 and later). For example, projected sales shares of conventional spark-ignition vehicles in 2030 for a given scenario ranged from 35% to 74%. Reasons for such differences are discussed, recognizing that these models were not developed to give quantitatively accurate predictions of future sales shares, but to represent vehicles markets realistically and capture the connections between sales and important influences. Model features were also compared at a high level, and suggestions for further comparison

  8. End use technology choice in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS): An analysis of the residential and commercial building sectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilkerson, Jordan T.; Cullenward, Danny; Davidian, Danielle; Weyant, John P.

    2013-01-01

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is arguably the most influential energy model in the United States. The U.S. Energy Information Administration uses NEMS to generate the federal government's annual long-term forecast of national energy consumption and to evaluate prospective federal energy policies. NEMS is considered such a standard tool that other models are calibrated to its forecasts, in both government and academic practice. As a result, NEMS has a significant influence over expert opinions of plausible energy futures. NEMS is a massively detailed model whose inner workings, despite its prominence, receive relatively scant critical attention. This paper analyzes how NEMS projects energy demand in the residential and commercial sectors. In particular, we focus on the role of consumers' preferences and financial constraints, investigating how consumers choose appliances and other end-use technologies. We identify conceptual issues in the approach the model takes to the same question across both sectors. Running the model with a range of consumer preferences, we estimate the extent to which this issue impacts projected consumption relative to the baseline model forecast for final energy demand in the year 2035. In the residential sector, the impact ranges from a decrease of 0.73 quads (− 6.0%) to an increase of 0.24 quads (+ 2.0%). In the commercial sector, the impact ranges from a decrease of 1.0 quads (− 9.0%) to an increase of 0.99 quads (+ 9.0%). - Highlights: • This paper examines the impact of consumer preferences on final energy in the Commercial and Residential sectors of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). • We describe the conceptual and empirical basis for modeling consumer technology choice in NEMS. • We offer a range of alternative parameters to show the energy demand sensitivity to technology choice. • We show there are significant potential savings available in both building sectors. • Because the model uses its own

  9. Comparison of Vehicle Choice Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stephens, Thomas S. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Levinson, Rebecca S. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Brooker, Aaron [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Liu, Changzheng [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Lin, Zhenhong [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Birky, Alicia [Energetics Incorporated, Columbia, MD (United States); Kontou, Eleftheria [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-10-01

    Five consumer vehicle choice models that give projections of future sales shares of light-duty vehicles were compared by running each model using the same inputs, where possible, for two scenarios. The five models compared — LVCFlex, MA3T, LAVE-Trans, ParaChoice, and ADOPT — have been used in support of the Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Vehicle Technologies Office in analyses of future light-duty vehicle markets under different assumptions about future vehicle technologies and market conditions. The models give projections of sales shares by powertrain technology. Projections made using common, but not identical, inputs showed qualitative agreement, with the exception of ADOPT. ADOPT estimated somewhat lower advanced vehicle shares, mostly composed of hybrid electric vehicles. Other models projected large shares of multiple advanced vehicle powertrains. Projections of models differed in significant ways, including how different technologies penetrated cars and light trucks. Since the models are constructed differently and take different inputs, not all inputs were identical, but were the same or very similar where possible.

  10. Making Choices in the Virtual World: The New Model at United Technologies Information Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gulliford, Bradley

    1998-01-01

    Describes changes in services of the United Technologies Corporation Information Network from a traditional library system to a virtual system of World Wide Web sites, a document-delivery unit, telephone and e-mail reference, and desktop technical support to provide remote access. Staff time, security, and licensing issues are addressed.…

  11. Choice of pesticide fate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balderacchi, Matteo; Trevisan, Marco; Vischetti, Costantino

    2006-01-01

    The choice of a pesticide fate model at field scale is linked to the available input data. The article describes the available pesticide fate models at a field scale and the guidelines for the choice of the suitable model as function of the data input requested [it

  12. Capacity choice, technology mix and market power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meunier, Guy

    2010-01-01

    This paper investigates strategic capacity choices in electricity markets comprised of heterogeneous firms. Long term strategic investments are analyzed assuming that the wholesale market is competitive. There are two technologies available to produce electricity; both are efficient and used at a first best optimum. When not all firms can invest in both technologies, there can be over investment in either of these technologies. It is shown that if the number of firms that can invest in a particular technology is limited, the development of competition solely using the other technology can decrease welfare. (author)

  13. Market Integration, Choice of Technology and Welfare

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Jørgen Drud; Nielsen, Jørgen Ulff-Møller

    2010-01-01

    technologies. Market integration may induce a technological restructuring where firms either diversify their technologies or switch to a homogeneous technology. In general, market integration improves welfare. However, a small decrease of trade costs which induces a switch from heterogeneous technologies......This paper develops an international trade model where firms in a duopoly may diversify their technologies for strategic reasons. The firms face the same set of technologies given by a tradeoff between marginal costs and fixed costs, but depending on trade costs firms may choose different...... to a homogeneous technology may locally reduce global welfare. The model also shows that productivity differences lead to intra-industry firm heterogeneity in size and exports similar to the "new-new" trade models with monopolistic competition....

  14. Misclassification in binary choice models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Meyer, B. D.; Mittag, Nikolas

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 200, č. 2 (2017), s. 295-311 ISSN 0304-4076 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GJ16-07603Y Institutional support: Progres-Q24 Keywords : measurement error * binary choice models * program take-up Subject RIV: AH - Economics OBOR OECD: Economic Theory Impact factor: 1.633, year: 2016

  15. Misclassification in binary choice models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Meyer, B. D.; Mittag, Nikolas

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 200, č. 2 (2017), s. 295-311 ISSN 0304-4076 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : measurement error * binary choice models * program take-up Subject RIV: AH - Economics OBOR OECD: Economic Theory Impact factor: 1.633, year: 2016

  16. Energy-saving technology choices by Dutch glasshouse firms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pietola, K.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.

    2006-01-01

    This paper estimates a sequence of energy-saving technology choices by Dutch glasshouse firms. The model allows for time-constant, firm-specific effects and serial correlation of errors and it is estimated on panel data over the period 1991¿1995. The unobserved error sequences are simulated in the

  17. Modelling Choice of Information Sources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agha Faisal Habib Pathan

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses the significance of traveller information sources including mono-modal and multimodal websites for travel decisions. The research follows a decision paradigm developed earlier, involving an information acquisition process for travel choices, and identifies the abstract characteristics of new information sources that deserve further investigation (e.g. by incorporating these in models and studying their significance in model estimation. A Stated Preference experiment is developed and the utility functions are formulated by expanding the travellers' choice set to include different combinations of sources of information. In order to study the underlying choice mechanisms, the resulting variables are examined in models based on different behavioural strategies, including utility maximisation and minimising the regret associated with the foregone alternatives. This research confirmed that RRM (Random Regret Minimisation Theory can fruitfully be used and can provide important insights for behavioural studies. The study also analyses the properties of travel planning websites and establishes a link between travel choices and the content, provenance, design, presence of advertisements, and presentation of information. The results indicate that travellers give particular credence to governmentowned sources and put more importance on their own previous experiences than on any other single source of information. Information from multimodal websites is more influential than that on train-only websites. This in turn is more influential than information from friends, while information from coachonly websites is the least influential. A website with less search time, specific information on users' own criteria, and real time information is regarded as most attractive

  18. Mathematical learning instruction and teacher motivation factors affecting science technology engineering and math (STEM) major choices in 4-year colleges and universities: Multilevel structural equation modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ahlam

    2011-12-01

    Using the Educational Longitudinal Study of 2002/06, this study examined the effects of the selected mathematical learning and teacher motivation factors on graduates' science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) related major choices in 4-year colleges and universities, as mediated by math performance and math self-efficacy. Using multilevel structural equation modeling, I analyzed: (1) the association between mathematical learning instruction factors (i.e., computer, individual, and lecture-based learning activities in mathematics) and students' STEM major choices in 4-year colleges and universities as mediated by math performance and math self-efficacy and (2) the association between school factor, teacher motivation and students' STEM major choices in 4-year colleges and universities via mediators of math performance and math self-efficacy. The results revealed that among the selected learning experience factors, computer-based learning activities in math classrooms yielded the most positive effects on math self-efficacy, which significantly predicted the increase in the proportion of students' STEM major choice as mediated by math self-efficacy. Further, when controlling for base-year math Item Response Theory (IRT) scores, a positive relationship between individual-based learning activities in math classrooms and the first follow-up math IRT scores emerged, which related to the high proportion of students' STEM major choices. The results also indicated that individual and lecture-based learning activities in math yielded positive effects on math self-efficacy, which related to STEM major choice. Concerning between-school levels, teacher motivation yielded positive effects on the first follow up math IRT score, when controlling for base year IRT score. The results from this study inform educators, parents, and policy makers on how mathematics instruction can improve student math performance and encourage more students to prepare for STEM careers. Students

  19. Model choice in nonnested families

    CERN Document Server

    Pereira, Basilio de Bragança

    2016-01-01

    This book discusses the problem of model choice when the statistical models are separate, also called nonnested. Chapter 1 provides an introduction, motivating examples and a general overview of the problem. Chapter 2 presents the classical or frequentist approach to the problem as well as several alternative procedures and their properties. Chapter 3 explores the Bayesian approach, the limitations of the classical Bayes factors and the proposed alternative Bayes factors to overcome these limitations. It also discusses a significance Bayesian procedure. Lastly, Chapter 4 examines the pure likelihood approach. Various real-data examples and computer simulations are provided throughout the text.

  20. Consumer Vehicle Choice Model Documentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Changzheng [ORNL; Greene, David L [ORNL

    2012-08-01

    In response to the Fuel Economy and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions standards, automobile manufacturers will need to adopt new technologies to improve the fuel economy of their vehicles and to reduce the overall GHG emissions of their fleets. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has developed the Optimization Model for reducing GHGs from Automobiles (OMEGA) to estimate the costs and benefits of meeting GHG emission standards through different technology packages. However, the model does not simulate the impact that increased technology costs will have on vehicle sales or on consumer surplus. As the model documentation states, “While OMEGA incorporates functions which generally minimize the cost of meeting a specified carbon dioxide (CO2) target, it is not an economic simulation model which adjusts vehicle sales in response to the cost of the technology added to each vehicle.” Changes in the mix of vehicles sold, caused by the costs and benefits of added fuel economy technologies, could make it easier or more difficult for manufacturers to meet fuel economy and emissions standards, and impacts on consumer surplus could raise the costs or augment the benefits of the standards. Because the OMEGA model does not presently estimate such impacts, the EPA is investigating the feasibility of developing an adjunct to the OMEGA model to make such estimates. This project is an effort to develop and test a candidate model. The project statement of work spells out the key functional requirements for the new model.

  1. CHOICE OF MATERIAL AND MANUFACTURING TECHNOLOGY OF CASTING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. I. Kupriyanova

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available As a result of the carried out work abundant type of steel was chosen for casting production of asterisk of the excavator «Kamatsu». This type of steel is widely used as the wearproof steel working in the conditions of abrasive and shock – abrasive wear. Mathematical modeling of process of filling and hardening of casting was done and it confirmed a choice of the technology to produce casting without faulty parts.

  2. Disagreements, Employee spinoffs and the Choice of Technology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thompson, Peter; Chen, Jing

    2011-01-01

    Most existing models of employee spinoffs assume they are driven by a desire to implement new ideas. However, history is replete with examples of spinoffs that were launched to continue with old ideas that their parents were in the process of abandoning. We develop a model of technology choice...... in which spinoffs may form to implement new or old technologies. A team of managers engaged in production using technology x, is considering switching to technology y. The value of y is not known and disagreements may emerge among team members. Managers who develop sufficiently strong disagreements...... with their colleagues choose to form new companies to implement their preferred strategy. Two distinct classes of spinoffs arise. In the first, a spinoff forms when an employee comes to believe it is worth adopting y but the firm does not. In the second, a spinoff arises when an employee sufficiently disagrees...

  3. Modeling one-choice and two-choice driving tasks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratcliff, Roger

    2015-08-01

    An experiment is presented in which subjects were tested on both one-choice and two-choice driving tasks and on non-driving versions of them. Diffusion models for one- and two-choice tasks were successful in extracting model-based measures from the response time and accuracy data. These include measures of the quality of the information from the stimuli that drove the decision process (drift rate in the model), the time taken up by processes outside the decision process and, for the two-choice model, the speed/accuracy decision criteria that subjects set. Drift rates were only marginally different between the driving and non-driving tasks, indicating that nearly the same information was used in the two kinds of tasks. The tasks differed in the time taken up by other processes, reflecting the difference between them in response processing demands. Drift rates were significantly correlated across the two two-choice tasks showing that subjects that performed well on one task also performed well on the other task. Nondecision times were correlated across the two driving tasks, showing common abilities on motor processes across the two tasks. These results show the feasibility of using diffusion modeling to examine decision making in driving and so provide for a theoretical examination of factors that might impair driving, such as extreme aging, distraction, sleep deprivation, and so on.

  4. Dynamic cognitive models of intertemporal choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Junyi; Pleskac, Timothy J; Pachur, Thorsten

    2018-03-24

    Traditionally, descriptive accounts of intertemporal choice have relied on static and deterministic models that assume alternative-wise processing of the options. Recent research, by contrast, has highlighted the dynamic and probabilistic nature of intertemporal choice and provided support for attribute-wise processing. Currently, dynamic models of intertemporal choice-which account for both the resulting choice and the time course over which the construction of a choice develops-rely exclusively on the framework of evidence accumulation. In this article, we develop and rigorously compare several candidate schemes for dynamic models of intertemporal choice. Specifically, we consider an existing dynamic modeling scheme based on decision field theory and develop two novel modeling schemes-one assuming lexicographic, noncompensatory processing, and the other built on the classical concepts of random utility in economics and discrimination thresholds in psychophysics. We show that all three modeling schemes can accommodate key behavioral regularities in intertemporal choice. When empirical choice and response time data were fit simultaneously, the models built on random utility and discrimination thresholds performed best. The results also indicated substantial individual differences in the dynamics underlying intertemporal choice. Finally, model recovery analyses demonstrated the benefits of including both choice and response time data for more accurate model selection on the individual level. The present work shows how the classical concept of random utility can be extended to incorporate response dynamics in intertemporal choice. Moreover, the results suggest that this approach offers a successful alternative to the dominating evidence accumulation approach when modeling the dynamics of decision making. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. An Application of Discrete Choice Analysis to the Modeling of Public Library Use and Choice Behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sone, Akio

    1988-01-01

    This study applied discrete choice analysis to the modeling of public library use and choice behavior. Five library use models and two library choice models were estimated from data obtained by a citizen survey in Kashiwa City, Japan. A library choice model was applied to predicting users' library choice under alternative library policies. (17…

  6. Discrete choice modeling of season choice for Minnesota turkey hunters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeder, Susan A.; Fulton, David C.; Cornicelli, Louis; Merchant, Steven S.

    2018-01-01

    Recreational turkey hunting exemplifies the interdisciplinary nature of modern wildlife management. Turkey populations in Minnesota have reached social or biological carrying capacities in many areas, and changes to turkey hunting regulations have been proposed by stakeholders and wildlife managers. This study employed discrete stated choice modeling to enhance understanding of turkey hunter preferences about regulatory alternatives. We distributed mail surveys to 2,500 resident turkey hunters. Results suggest that, compared to season structure and lotteries, additional permits and level of potential interference from other hunters most influenced hunter preferences for regulatory alternatives. Low hunter interference was preferred to moderate or high interference. A second permit issued only to unsuccessful hunters was preferred to no second permit or permits for all hunters. Results suggest that utility is not strictly defined by harvest or an individual's material gain but can involve preference for other outcomes that on the surface do not materially benefit an individual. Discrete stated choice modeling offers wildlife managers an effective way to assess constituent preferences related to new regulations before implementing them. 

  7. Parameter Estimation for Thurstone Choice Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vojnovic, Milan [London School of Economics (United Kingdom); Yun, Seyoung [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-04-24

    We consider the estimation accuracy of individual strength parameters of a Thurstone choice model when each input observation consists of a choice of one item from a set of two or more items (so called top-1 lists). This model accommodates the well-known choice models such as the Luce choice model for comparison sets of two or more items and the Bradley-Terry model for pair comparisons. We provide a tight characterization of the mean squared error of the maximum likelihood parameter estimator. We also provide similar characterizations for parameter estimators defined by a rank-breaking method, which amounts to deducing one or more pair comparisons from a comparison of two or more items, assuming independence of these pair comparisons, and maximizing a likelihood function derived under these assumptions. We also consider a related binary classification problem where each individual parameter takes value from a set of two possible values and the goal is to correctly classify all items within a prescribed classification error. The results of this paper shed light on how the parameter estimation accuracy depends on given Thurstone choice model and the structure of comparison sets. In particular, we found that for unbiased input comparison sets of a given cardinality, when in expectation each comparison set of given cardinality occurs the same number of times, for a broad class of Thurstone choice models, the mean squared error decreases with the cardinality of comparison sets, but only marginally according to a diminishing returns relation. On the other hand, we found that there exist Thurstone choice models for which the mean squared error of the maximum likelihood parameter estimator can decrease much faster with the cardinality of comparison sets. We report empirical evaluation of some claims and key parameters revealed by theory using both synthetic and real-world input data from some popular sport competitions and online labor platforms.

  8. Process and Context in Choice Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ben-Akiva, Moshe; Palma, André de; McFadden, Daniel

    2012-01-01

    We develop a general framework that extends choice models by including an explicit representation of the process and context of decision making. Process refers to the steps involved in decision making. Context refers to factors affecting the process, focusing in this paper on social networks....... The extended choice framework includes more behavioral richness through the explicit representation of the planning process preceding an action and its dynamics and the effects of context (family, friends, and market) on the process leading to a choice, as well as the inclusion of new types of subjective data...

  9. Hybrid Compensatory-Noncompensatory Choice Sets in Semicompensatory Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Bekhor, Shlomo; Shiftan, Yoram

    2013-01-01

    Semicompensatory models represent a choice process consisting of an elimination-based choice set formation on satisfaction of criterion thresholds and a utility-based choice. Current semicompensatory models assume a purely noncompensatory choice set formation and therefore do not support...... multinomial criteria that involve trade-offs between attributes at the choice set formation stage. This study proposes a novel behavioral paradigm consisting of a hybrid compensatory-noncompensatory choice set formation process, followed by compensatory choice. The behavioral paradigm is represented...

  10. The choice of cloud technology for big data

    OpenAIRE

    Veres, O.; Kozak, N.

    2017-01-01

    This article describes specific features of cloud technology types and their existing classifications, as well as the peculiarities of their implementation in the process of designing the DDS for Big Data Management. The application of the analytic hierarchy process for the choice of cloud technology within the project of DDS for Big Data Management is suggested and described within this paper. Multi-criteria decision making task with a defined set of options and criteria is solved.

  11. Modeling Choice and Valuation in Decision Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loomes, Graham

    2010-01-01

    This article develops a parsimonious descriptive model of individual choice and valuation in the kinds of experiments that constitute a substantial part of the literature relating to decision making under risk and uncertainty. It suggests that many of the best known "regularities" observed in those experiments may arise from a tendency for…

  12. Power Generation Technology Choice in the Presence of Climate Policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pettersson, Fredrik

    2005-01-01

    The overall purpose of this thesis is to analyze power generation technology choices in the presence of climate policy. Special attention is paid to the diffusion of renewable power technologies following a carbon pricing policy, and this topic is analyzed in two self-contained papers. The overall objective of paper 1 is to analyze how future investments in the Swedish power sector can be affected by carbon pricing policies following the Kyoto Protocol. In the first part we focus on the price of carbon following the Kyoto commitments and to what extent this policy will affect the relative competitiveness of the available investment alternatives. The second part pays attention to the possible impacts of technology learning - and the resulting cost decreases - on the economics of power generation in the presence of climate policy. The first part considers the majority of power generation technologies available in Sweden, while the second part focuses solely on the competition between combined cycle natural gas plants and the cheapest renewable power alternative, wind power. Methodologically, we approach the above issues from the perspective of a power generator who considers investing in new generation capacity. This implies that we first of all assess the lifetime engineering costs of different power generation technologies in Sweden, and analyze the impact of carbon pricing on the competitive cost position of these technologies under varying rate-of-return requirements. Overall the results indicate that in general it is not certain that compliance with the Kyoto commitments implies substantial increases in renewable power sources. If, therefore, renewable power sources are favored for reasons beyond climate policy additional policy instruments will be needed. The purpose of paper 2 is to analyze the costs for reducing CO 2 emissions in the power-generating sectors in Croatia, the European part of Russia, Macedonia, Serbia and the Ukraine in 2020 by using a linear

  13. A practical test for the choice of mixing distribution in discrete choice models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; Bierlaire, Michel

    2007-01-01

    The choice of a specific distribution for random parameters of discrete choice models is a critical issue in transportation analysis. Indeed, various pieces of research have demonstrated that an inappropriate choice of the distribution may lead to serious bias in model forecast and in the estimated...

  14. Binary choice models with endogenous regressors

    OpenAIRE

    Christopher Baum; Yingying Dong; Arthur Lewbel; Tao Yang

    2012-01-01

    Dong and Lewbel have developed the theory of simple estimators for binary choice models with endogenous or mismeasured regressors, depending on a `special regressor' as defined by Lewbel (J. Econometrics, 2000). `Control function' methods such as Stata's ivprobit are generally only valid when endogenous regressors are consistent. The estimators proposed here can be used with limited, censored, continuous or discrete endogenous regressors, and have significant advantages over alternatives such...

  15. Use of the AHP Methodology in System Dynamics: Modelling and Simulation for Health Technology Assessments to Determine the Correct Prosthesis Choice for Hernia Diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Improta, Giovanni; Russo, Mario Alessandro; Triassi, Maria; Converso, Giuseppe; Murino, Teresa; Santillo, Liberatina Carmela

    2018-03-05

    Health technology assessments (HTAs) are often difficult to conduct because of the decisive procedures of the HTA algorithm, which are often complex and not easy to apply. Thus, their use is not always convenient or possible for the assessment of technical requests requiring a multidisciplinary approach. This paper aims to address this issue through a multi-criteria analysis focusing on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). This methodology allows the decision maker to analyse and evaluate different alternatives and monitor their impact on different actors during the decision-making process. However, the multi-criteria analysis is implemented through a simulation model to overcome the limitations of the AHP methodology. Simulations help decision-makers to make an appropriate decision and avoid unnecessary and costly attempts. Finally, a decision problem regarding the evaluation of two health technologies, namely, the evaluation of two biological prostheses for incisional infected hernias, will be analysed to assess the effectiveness of the model. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  16. Discrete Choice Models - Estimation of Passenger Traffic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Majken Vildrik

    2003-01-01

    model, data and estimation are described, with a focus of possibilities/limitations of different techniques. Two special issues of modelling are addressed in further detail, namely data segmentation and estimation of Mixed Logit models. Both issues are concerned with whether individuals can be assumed...... for estimation of choice models). For application of the method an algorithm is provided with a case. Also for the second issue, estimation of Mixed Logit models, a method was proposed. The most commonly used approach to estimate Mixed Logit models, is to employ the Maximum Simulated Likelihood estimation (MSL...... distribution of coefficients were found. All the shapes of distributions found, complied with sound knowledge in terms of which should be uni-modal, sign specific and/or skewed distributions....

  17. Model for understanding consumer textural food choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeltema, Melissa; Beckley, Jacqueline; Vahalik, Jennifer

    2015-05-01

    The current paradigm for developing products that will match the marketing messaging is flawed because the drivers of product choice and satisfaction based on texture are misunderstood. Qualitative research across 10 years has led to the thesis explored in this research that individuals have a preferred way to manipulate food in their mouths (i.e., mouth behavior) and that this behavior is a major driver of food choice, satisfaction, and the desire to repurchase. Texture, which is currently thought to be a major driver of product choice, is a secondary factor, and is important only in that it supports the primary driver-mouth behavior. A model for mouth behavior is proposed and the qualitative research supporting the identification of different mouth behaviors is presented. The development of a trademarked typing tool for characterizing mouth behavior is described along with quantitative substantiation of the tool's ability to group individuals by mouth behavior. The use of these four groups to understand textural preferences and the implications for a variety of areas including product design and weight management are explored.

  18. AHP choice in cocoa post-harvest technology for small-scale farmers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lenin Vera-Montenegro

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Ensuring that the post-harvest process yields good quality cocoa is a relevant research question. However, the literature currently lacks detailed studies of producers’ criteria for post-harvest technology selection. There is therefore a need for research that examines technology choice based on several criteria. This is the aim of our paper. We defined a cocoa post-harvest technology selection model to assist small producers in Ecuador. To do so, we employed the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP to assess the following criteria: quality, processing cost and technology adoption capability. By considering only quality, we first performed a preliminary assessment of nine post-harvest technologies yielded by all possible combinations of fermentation and drying methods. Under the criterion “quality”, results show that no post-harvest technology is preferable to another. This implies that quality differences between producers do not derive from technology choice but rather from the rigour with which producers perform fermentation and drying processes. After adding the criteria “processing cost” and “technology adoption capability”, we performed the analysis again. This multi-criteria approach offered a better way to approximate small farmers’ real needs when selecting technology for cocoa post-harvest. Although quality was the highest-valued criterion, high scores attributed to some technologies in the other two criteria offset scores for quality. Thus, processing cost and technology adoption also emerged as relevant factors for small holders.

  19. An Analysis of the Impact of Student-Scientist Interaction in a Technology Design Activity, Using the Expectancy-Value Model of Achievement Related Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masson, Anne-Lotte; Klop, Tanja; Osseweijer, Patricia

    2016-01-01

    Many education initiatives in science and technology education aim to create enthusiasm among young people to pursue a career in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM). Research suggests that personal interaction between secondary school students and scientists could be a success factor, but there is a need for more in-depth…

  20. A link based network route choice model with unrestricted choice set

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; Frejinger, Emma; Karlstrom, Anders

    2013-01-01

    This paper considers the path choice problem, formulating and discussing an econometric random utility model for the choice of path in a network with no restriction on the choice set. Starting from a dynamic specification of link choices we show that it is equivalent to a static model...... of the multinomial logit form but with infinitely many alternatives. The model can be consistently estimated and used for prediction in a computationally efficient way. Similarly to the path size logit model, we propose an attribute called link size that corrects utilities of overlapping paths but that is link...... additive. The model is applied to data recording path choices in a network with more than 3000 nodes and 7000 links....

  1. The Choice of Higher Education and Family Income : An Application of the Choice Model

    OpenAIRE

    金子, 元久; 吉本, 圭一

    1989-01-01

    This paper analyses the effect of family income upon the choice of opportunities of higher education by applying the discrete choice model, The data were taken from a tracer survey conducted upon high school graduates in l980. Empirical findings from the analysis may be summarized as follows: l) The chances of taking the opportunities of higher education are indeed related to family income. This is true for three stages of choice (special training schools and above vs. employment; junior coll...

  2. Adopt or Adapt: Sanitation Technology Choices in Urbanizing Malawi.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chunga, Richard M; Ensink, Jeroen H J; Jenkins, Marion W; Brown, Joe

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents the results of a mixed-methods study examining adaptation strategies that property owners in low-income, rapidly urbanizing areas in Malawi adopt to address the limitations of pit latrines, the most common method of disposing human excreta. A particular challenge is lack of space for constructing new latrines as population density increases: traditional practice has been to cap full pits and simply move to a new site, but increasing demands on space require new approaches to extend the service life of latrines. In this context, we collected data on sanitation technology choices from January to September 2013 through 48 in-depth interviews and a stated preference survey targeting 1,300 property owners from 27 low-income urban areas. Results showed that property owners with concern about space for replacing pit latrines were 1.8 times more likely to select pit emptying service over the construction of new pit latrines with a slab floor (p = 0.02) but there was no significant association between concern about space for replacing pit latrines and intention to adopt locally promoted, novel sanitation technology known as ecological sanitation (ecosan). Property owners preferred to adapt existing, known technology by constructing replacement pit latrines on old pit latrine locations, reducing the frequency of replacing pit latrines, or via emptying pit latrines when full. This study highlights potential challenges to adoption of wholly new sanitation technologies, even when they present clear advantages to end users. To scale, alternative sanitation technologies for rapidly urbanising cities should offer clear advantages, be affordable, be easy to use when shared among multiple households, and their design should be informed by existing adaptation strategies and local knowledge.

  3. Adopt or Adapt: Sanitation Technology Choices in Urbanizing Malawi.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard M Chunga

    Full Text Available This paper presents the results of a mixed-methods study examining adaptation strategies that property owners in low-income, rapidly urbanizing areas in Malawi adopt to address the limitations of pit latrines, the most common method of disposing human excreta. A particular challenge is lack of space for constructing new latrines as population density increases: traditional practice has been to cap full pits and simply move to a new site, but increasing demands on space require new approaches to extend the service life of latrines. In this context, we collected data on sanitation technology choices from January to September 2013 through 48 in-depth interviews and a stated preference survey targeting 1,300 property owners from 27 low-income urban areas. Results showed that property owners with concern about space for replacing pit latrines were 1.8 times more likely to select pit emptying service over the construction of new pit latrines with a slab floor (p = 0.02 but there was no significant association between concern about space for replacing pit latrines and intention to adopt locally promoted, novel sanitation technology known as ecological sanitation (ecosan. Property owners preferred to adapt existing, known technology by constructing replacement pit latrines on old pit latrine locations, reducing the frequency of replacing pit latrines, or via emptying pit latrines when full. This study highlights potential challenges to adoption of wholly new sanitation technologies, even when they present clear advantages to end users. To scale, alternative sanitation technologies for rapidly urbanising cities should offer clear advantages, be affordable, be easy to use when shared among multiple households, and their design should be informed by existing adaptation strategies and local knowledge.

  4. Understanding student participation and choice in science and technology education

    CERN Document Server

    Dillon, Justin; Ryder, Jim

    2015-01-01

    Drawing on data generated by the EU’s Interests and Recruitment in Science (IRIS) project, this volume examines the issue of young people’s participation in science, technology, engineering and mathematics education. With an especial focus on female participation, the chapters offer analysis deploying varied theoretical frameworks, including sociology, social psychology and gender studies. The material also includes reviews of relevant research in science education and summaries of empirical data concerning student choices in STEM disciplines in five European countries. Featuring both quantitative and qualitative analyses, the book makes a substantial contribution to the developing theoretical agenda in STEM education. It augments available empirical data and identifies strategies in policy-making that could lead to improved participation—and gender balance—in STEM disciplines. The majority of the chapter authors are IRIS project members, with additional chapters written by specially invited contribu...

  5. Fairness hypothesis and managing the risks of societal technology choices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cantor, R.; Rayner, S.

    1986-08-01

    Much of the literature on risk perception and management has asked how society should resolve the question, ''How safe is safe enough'' There has been political and technical disagreement over the types of answers that may be given, as well as over the social values attached to perceived probabilities and magnitudes of various outcomes. Despite controversy, there seems to have been a large measure of consensus that, ''How safe is safe enough'' is the right question to ask. This paper sets out to question that assumption. Various ingenious techniques of risk analysis have sought to discover the real risks inherent in various activities, but from a sociocultural viewpoint it can be seen that no single answer can be given to the problem of adequate safety in a complex society which contains a wide variety of perceptual biases about danger, expectations of the good life, and levels of demand for safety. The paper argues that, from a societal risk-management perspective, we should be addressing a different range of questions that views societal risk as a whole rather than as the sum of individual hazards. Resolving the question, ''How safe is safe enough'' is less important in making societal technology choices than ''How fair is safe enough?'' A recent empirical pilot study is reported which explored the fairness hypotheses in the context of nuclear power. The results indicate that the process of technology choice should recognize explicitly the preferred principles different parties hold with respect to obtaining consent from those affected by the risks, distributing the liabilities, and justifying trust in the relevant institutions. The paper closes with a discussion of future prospects for the fairness approach in areas such as noxious facility siting

  6. Meta-analysis of choice set generation effects on route choice model estimates and predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    are applied for model estimation and results are compared to the ‘true model estimates’. Last, predictions from the simulation of models estimated with objective choice sets are compared to the ‘postulated predicted routes’. A meta-analytical approach allows synthesizing the effect of judgments......Large scale applications of behaviorally realistic transport models pose several challenges to transport modelers on both the demand and the supply sides. On the supply side, path-based solutions to the user assignment equilibrium problem help modelers in enhancing the route choice behavior...... modeling, but require them to generate choice sets by selecting a path generation technique and its parameters according to personal judgments. This paper proposes a methodology and an experimental setting to provide general indications about objective judgments for an effective route choice set generation...

  7. A nested recursive logit model for route choice analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mai, Tien; Frejinger, Emma; Fosgerau, Mogens

    2015-01-01

    We propose a route choice model that relaxes the independence from irrelevant alternatives property of the logit model by allowing scale parameters to be link specific. Similar to the recursive logit (RL) model proposed by Fosgerau et al. (2013), the choice of path is modeled as a sequence of lin...

  8. Hybrid discrete choice models: Gained insights versus increasing effort

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mariel, Petr; Meyerhoff, Jürgen

    2016-01-01

    Hybrid choice models expand the standard models in discrete choice modelling by incorporating psychological factors as latent variables. They could therefore provide further insights into choice processes and underlying taste heterogeneity but the costs of estimating these models often significantly increase. This paper aims at comparing the results from a hybrid choice model and a classical random parameter logit. Point of departure for this analysis is whether researchers and practitioners should add hybrid choice models to their suite of models routinely estimated. Our comparison reveals, in line with the few prior studies, that hybrid models gain in efficiency by the inclusion of additional information. The use of one of the two proposed approaches, however, depends on the objective of the analysis. If disentangling preference heterogeneity is most important, hybrid model seems to be preferable. If the focus is on predictive power, a standard random parameter logit model might be the better choice. Finally, we give recommendations for an adequate use of hybrid choice models based on known principles of elementary scientific inference. - Highlights: • The paper compares performance of a Hybrid Choice Model (HCM) and a classical Random Parameter Logit (RPL) model. • The HCM indeed provides insights regarding preference heterogeneity not gained from the RPL. • The RPL has similar predictive power as the HCM in our data. • The costs of estimating HCM seem to be justified when learning more on taste heterogeneity is a major study objective.

  9. Hybrid discrete choice models: Gained insights versus increasing effort

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mariel, Petr, E-mail: petr.mariel@ehu.es [UPV/EHU, Economía Aplicada III, Avda. Lehendakari Aguire, 83, 48015 Bilbao (Spain); Meyerhoff, Jürgen [Institute for Landscape Architecture and Environmental Planning, Technical University of Berlin, D-10623 Berlin, Germany and The Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Duesternbrooker Weg 120, 24105 Kiel (Germany)

    2016-10-15

    Hybrid choice models expand the standard models in discrete choice modelling by incorporating psychological factors as latent variables. They could therefore provide further insights into choice processes and underlying taste heterogeneity but the costs of estimating these models often significantly increase. This paper aims at comparing the results from a hybrid choice model and a classical random parameter logit. Point of departure for this analysis is whether researchers and practitioners should add hybrid choice models to their suite of models routinely estimated. Our comparison reveals, in line with the few prior studies, that hybrid models gain in efficiency by the inclusion of additional information. The use of one of the two proposed approaches, however, depends on the objective of the analysis. If disentangling preference heterogeneity is most important, hybrid model seems to be preferable. If the focus is on predictive power, a standard random parameter logit model might be the better choice. Finally, we give recommendations for an adequate use of hybrid choice models based on known principles of elementary scientific inference. - Highlights: • The paper compares performance of a Hybrid Choice Model (HCM) and a classical Random Parameter Logit (RPL) model. • The HCM indeed provides insights regarding preference heterogeneity not gained from the RPL. • The RPL has similar predictive power as the HCM in our data. • The costs of estimating HCM seem to be justified when learning more on taste heterogeneity is a major study objective.

  10. Technological choices and development: the energy conservation case in the Tunisian industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sellami, H.

    1988-01-01

    The technological choices for an industrial development, especially in a developing country such as Tunisia, may be determined by two opposite principles: the appropriate technologies and the technological short cuts. The methodological approach presented here is based on a comparison of the technological choices for energy conservation in France and in Tunisia. The main energy consuming industrial sectors are analyzed for their technology use and their relative energy consumptions

  11. Induction Accelerator Technology Choices for the Integrated Beam Experiment (IBX)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leitner, M.A.; Celata, C.M.; Lee, E.P.; Logan, B.G.; Sabbi, G.; Waldron, W.L.; Barnard, J.J.

    2003-01-01

    Over the next three years the research program of the Heavy Ion Fusion Virtual National Laboratory (HIF-VNL), a collaboration among LBNL, LLNL, and PPPL, is focused on separate scientific experiments in the injection, transport and focusing of intense heavy ion beams at currents from 100 mA to 1 A. As a next major step in the HIF-VNL program, we aim for a complete 'source-to-target' experiment, the Integrated Beam Experiment (IBX). By combining the experience gained in the current separate beam experiments IBX would allow the integrated scientific study of the evolution of a single heavy ion beam at high current (∼1 A) through all sections of a possible heavy ion fusion accelerator: the injection, acceleration, compression, and beam focusing.This paper describes the main parameters and technology choices of the planned IBX experiment. IBX will accelerate singly charged potassium or argon ion beams up to 10 MeV final energy and a longitudinal beam compression ratio of 10, resulting in a beam current at target of more than 10 Amperes. Different accelerator cell design options are described in detail: Induction cores incorporating either room temperature pulsed focusing-magnets or superconducting magnets

  12. Technology choices for the Integrated Beam Experiment (IBX)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leitner, M.A.; Celata, C.M.; Lee, E.P.; Sabbi, G.; Waldron, W.L.; Barnard, J.J.

    2002-01-01

    Over the next three years the research program of the Heavy Ion Fusion Virtual National Laboratory (HIF-VNL), a collaboration among LBNL, LLNL, and PPPL, is focused on separate scientific experiments in the injection, transport and focusing of intense heavy ion beams at currents from 100 mA to 1 A. As a next major step in the HIF-VNL program, we aim for a complete ''source-to-target'' experiment, the Integrated Beam Experiment (IBX). By combining the experience gained in the current separate beam experiments IBX would allow the integrated scientific study of the evolution of a single heavy ion beam at high current (∼1 A) through all sections of a possible heavy ion fusion accelerator: the injection, acceleration, compression, and beam focusing. This paper describes the main parameters and technology choices of the planned IBX experiment. IBX will accelerate singly charged potassium or argon ion beams up to 10 MeV final energy and a longitudinal beam compression ratio of 10, resulting in a beam current at target of more than 10 Amperes. Different accelerator cell design options are described in detail: Induction cores incorporating either room temperature pulsed focusing-magnets or superconducting magnets

  13. Technology choices for the Integrated Beam Experiment (IBX)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leitner, M.A.; Celata, C.M.; Lee, E.P.; Sabbi, G.; Waldron, W.L.; Barnard, J.J.

    2002-10-31

    Over the next three years the research program of the Heavy Ion Fusion Virtual National Laboratory (HIF-VNL), a collaboration among LBNL, LLNL, and PPPL, is focused on separate scientific experiments in the injection, transport and focusing of intense heavy ion beams at currents from 100 mA to 1 A. As a next major step in the HIF-VNL program, we aim for a complete ''source-to-target'' experiment, the Integrated Beam Experiment (IBX). By combining the experience gained in the current separate beam experiments IBX would allow the integrated scientific study of the evolution of a single heavy ion beam at high current ({approx}1 A) through all sections of a possible heavy ion fusion accelerator: the injection, acceleration, compression, and beam focusing. This paper describes the main parameters and technology choices of the planned IBX experiment. IBX will accelerate singly charged potassium or argon ion beams up to 10 MeV final energy and a longitudinal beam compression ratio of 10, resulting in a beam current at target of more than 10 Amperes. Different accelerator cell design options are described in detail: Induction cores incorporating either room temperature pulsed focusing-magnets or superconducting magnets.

  14. Role of liability preferences in societal technology choices: results of a pilot study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cantor, R.; Rayner, S.; Braid, B.

    1985-01-01

    At the 1984 Annual Meeting of the Society for Risk Analysis, Steve Rayner presented a paper that challenged the conventional wisdom of risk management research. In that paper, he argued that resolving the question, ''How safe is safe enough.'' is less important in making societal technology choices than ''How fair is safe enough.'' Adopting the fairness question as the concern of risk management would imply that the process of technology choice explicitly recognize the preferred principles different parties hold with respect to obtaining consent from those affected by the risks, distributing the liabilities, and justifying trust in the relevant institutions. This paper discusses a recent empirical pilot study which explored the fairness hypothesis in the context of nuclear power. Individual interviews and focus groups were conducted to examine whether or not preferred principles for liability distributions were consistent with those suggested by the cultural characteristics of the constituency. The results suggest that for this type of societal technology choice, violation of these preferred principles may be a major source of the conflict between different constituencies. Additionally, the study contributes towards the development of a new approach in risk management that combines the cultural model of risk perceptions with the decision-theoretic approaches found in economics and psychology

  15. Hybrid discrete choice models: Gained insights versus increasing effort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mariel, Petr; Meyerhoff, Jürgen

    2016-10-15

    Hybrid choice models expand the standard models in discrete choice modelling by incorporating psychological factors as latent variables. They could therefore provide further insights into choice processes and underlying taste heterogeneity but the costs of estimating these models often significantly increase. This paper aims at comparing the results from a hybrid choice model and a classical random parameter logit. Point of departure for this analysis is whether researchers and practitioners should add hybrid choice models to their suite of models routinely estimated. Our comparison reveals, in line with the few prior studies, that hybrid models gain in efficiency by the inclusion of additional information. The use of one of the two proposed approaches, however, depends on the objective of the analysis. If disentangling preference heterogeneity is most important, hybrid model seems to be preferable. If the focus is on predictive power, a standard random parameter logit model might be the better choice. Finally, we give recommendations for an adequate use of hybrid choice models based on known principles of elementary scientific inference. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Modeling Spanish Mood Choice in Belief Statements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Jason R.

    2013-01-01

    This work develops a computational methodology new to linguistics that empirically evaluates competing linguistic theories on Spanish verbal mood choice through the use of computational techniques to learn mood and other hidden linguistic features from Spanish belief statements found in corpora. The machine learned probabilistic linguistic models…

  17. ADOPT: A Historically Validated Light Duty Vehicle Consumer Choice Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brooker, A.; Gonder, J.; Lopp, S.; Ward, J.

    2015-05-04

    The Automotive Deployment Option Projection Tool (ADOPT) is a light-duty vehicle consumer choice and stock model supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office. It estimates technology improvement impacts on U.S. light-duty vehicles sales, petroleum use, and greenhouse gas emissions. ADOPT uses techniques from the multinomial logit method and the mixed logit method estimate sales. Specifically, it estimates sales based on the weighted value of key attributes including vehicle price, fuel cost, acceleration, range and usable volume. The average importance of several attributes changes nonlinearly across its range and changes with income. For several attributes, a distribution of importance around the average value is used to represent consumer heterogeneity. The majority of existing vehicle makes, models, and trims are included to fully represent the market. The Corporate Average Fuel Economy regulations are enforced. The sales feed into the ADOPT stock model. It captures key aspects for summing petroleum use and greenhouse gas emissions This includes capturing the change in vehicle miles traveled by vehicle age, the creation of new model options based on the success of existing vehicles, new vehicle option introduction rate limits, and survival rates by vehicle age. ADOPT has been extensively validated with historical sales data. It matches in key dimensions including sales by fuel economy, acceleration, price, vehicle size class, and powertrain across multiple years. A graphical user interface provides easy and efficient use. It manages the inputs, simulation, and results.

  18. Bio-energy in Europe: changing technology choices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faaij, Andre P.C.

    2006-01-01

    Bio-energy is seen as one of the key options to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and substitute fossil fuels. This is certainly evident in Europe, where a kaleidoscope of activities and programs was and is executed for developing and stimulating bio-energy. Over the past 10-15 years in the European Union, heat and electricity production from biomass increased with some 2% and 9% per year, respectively, between 1990 and 2000 and biofuel production increased about eight-fold in the same period. Biomass contributed some two-thirds of the total renewable energy production in the European Union (EU) (2000 PJ) or 4% of the total energy supply in 1999. Given the targets for heat, power and biofuels, this contribution may rise to some 10% (6000 PJ) in 2010. Over time, the scale at which bio-energy is being used has increased considerably. This is true for electricity and combined heat and power plants, and how biomass markets are developing from purely regional to international markets, with increasing cross-border trade-flows. So far, national policy programs proved to be of vital importance for the success of the development of bio-energy, which led to very specific technological choices in various countries. For the future, a supra-national approach is desired: comprehensive research development, demonstration and deployment trajectories for key options as biomass integrated gasification/combined cycle and advanced biofuel concepts, develop an international biomass market allowing for international trade and an integral policy approach for bio-energy incorporating energy, agricultural, forestry, waste and industrial policies. The Common Agricultural Policy of the (extended) EU should fully incorporate bio-energy and perennial crops in particular

  19. Understanding Student Participation and Choice in Science and Technology Education

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ryder, Jim; Ulriksen, Lars; Bøe, Maria Vetleseter

    2015-01-01

    Many of the chapters in this volume provide reviews of the existing research literature. In this chapter we focus on what the research studies presented in this book have contributed to our understanding of students’ educational choices. The nature of these contributions is varied. Many findings...... corroborate existing research insights, or explore existing perspectives in new educational contexts or across distinct geographical and cultural settings. In some cases our work challenges prevalent accounts of students’ educational choices. This chapter has five themes: theoretical perspectives; choice...

  20. Technology domains and manpower choice in the restaurant sector

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hjalager, Anne Mette

    1999-01-01

    Five principal technology domains are identified: 1: Technologies that change the concept of time. 2: Technologies that change the flow of materials. 3: Technologies that change the geographical mobility. 4: Technologies that enhance planning, and 5: Technologies that shift processes to and from ...... suppliers. All occupational groups in the restaurant sector are likely to be affected. Most technologies are found to enhance the deskilling of the staff, leaving empowerment opportunities for management levels only....

  1. Technology domains and manpower choice in the restaurant sector

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hjalager, Anne Mette

    1999-01-01

    Five principal technology domains are identified: 1: Technologies that change the concept of time. 2: Technologies that change the flow of materials. 3: Technologies that change the geographical mobility. 4: Technologies that enhance planning, and 5: Technologies that shift processes to and from ...... suppliers. All occupational groups in the restaurant sector are likely to be affected. Most technologies are found to enhance the deskilling of the staff, leaving empowerment opportunities for management levels only.......Five principal technology domains are identified: 1: Technologies that change the concept of time. 2: Technologies that change the flow of materials. 3: Technologies that change the geographical mobility. 4: Technologies that enhance planning, and 5: Technologies that shift processes to and from...

  2. Complexity effects in choice experiments-based models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dellaert, B.G.C.; Donkers, B.; van Soest, A.H.O.

    2012-01-01

    Many firms rely on choice experiment–based models to evaluate future marketing actions under various market conditions. This research investigates choice complexity (i.e., number of alternatives, number of attributes, and utility similarity between the most attractive alternatives) and individual

  3. Brand Choice Modeling Modeling Toothpaste Brand Choice: An Empirical Comparison of Artificial Neural Networks and Multinomial Probit Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tolga Kaya

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to compare the performances of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN and Multinomial Probit (MNP approaches in modeling the choice decision within fast moving consumer goods sector. To do this, based on 2597 toothpaste purchases of a panel sample of 404 households, choice models are built and their performances are compared on the 861 purchases of a test sample of 135 households. Results show that ANN's predictions are better while MNP is useful in providing marketing insight.

  4. NEUROBIOLOGY OF ECONOMIC CHOICE: A GOOD-BASED MODEL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padoa-Schioppa, Camillo

    2012-01-01

    Traditionally the object of economic theory and experimental psychology, economic choice recently became a lively research focus in systems neuroscience. Here I summarize the emerging results and I propose a unifying model of how economic choice might function at the neural level. Economic choice entails comparing options that vary on multiple dimensions. Hence, while choosing, individuals integrate different determinants into a subjective value; decisions are then made by comparing values. According to the good-based model, the values of different goods are computed independently of one another, which implies transitivity. Values are not learned as such, but rather computed at the time of choice. Most importantly, values are compared within the space of goods, independent of the sensori-motor contingencies of choice. Evidence from neurophysiology, imaging and lesion studies indicates that abstract representations of value exist in the orbitofrontal and ventromedial prefrontal cortices. The computation and comparison of values may thus take place within these regions. PMID:21456961

  5. Informing water harvesting technology contract design using choice experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarfasa, Solomon; Brouwer, Roy; Sheremet, Oleg; Bouma, Jetske

    2017-10-01

    Introducing water harvesting technology is expected to be more effective and last longer if farm households are involved in their design. The main objective of this study is to inform policymakers in Ethiopia about the most important terms and conditions to incentivize farmers to enter into a contractual agreement to invest in water harvesting on their land. In order to test the influence of the way the specific contractual terms and conditions are communicated to farm households, many of whom are illiterate, a split sample approach is applied with and without visual aids for technical, institutional, and economic contract characteristics. Both samples generate significantly different results, highlighting the importance of how information is conveyed to farm households. This pattern is confirmed when examining the self-reported importance attached to the various contract characteristics. Equality Constrained Latent Class models show that contract characteristics for which visual aids were developed are considered more attentively, emphasizing the importance of adequate communication tools in a developing country context where literacy rates are limited to increase water technology innovation uptake and reduce farm household vulnerability to droughts.

  6. Discrete choice models for commuting interactions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rouwendal, Jan; Mulalic, Ismir; Levkovich, Or

    An emerging quantitative spatial economics literature models commuting interactions by a gravity equation that is mathematically equivalent to a multinomial logit model. This model is widely viewed as restrictive because of the independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA) property that links...

  7. Profile construction in experimental choice designs for mixed logit models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sandor, Z; Wedel, M

    2002-01-01

    A computationally attractive model for the analysis of conjoint choice experiments is the mixed multinomial logit model, a multinomial logit model in which it is assumed that the coefficients follow a (normal) distribution across subjects. This model offers the advantage over the standard

  8. Models of Affective Decision Making: How Do Feelings Predict Choice?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charpentier, Caroline J; De Neve, Jan-Emmanuel; Li, Xinyi; Roiser, Jonathan P; Sharot, Tali

    2016-06-01

    Intuitively, how you feel about potential outcomes will determine your decisions. Indeed, an implicit assumption in one of the most influential theories in psychology, prospect theory, is that feelings govern choice. Surprisingly, however, very little is known about the rules by which feelings are transformed into decisions. Here, we specified a computational model that used feelings to predict choices. We found that this model predicted choice better than existing value-based models, showing a unique contribution of feelings to decisions, over and above value. Similar to the value function in prospect theory, our feeling function showed diminished sensitivity to outcomes as value increased. However, loss aversion in choice was explained by an asymmetry in how feelings about losses and gains were weighted when making a decision, not by an asymmetry in the feelings themselves. The results provide new insights into how feelings are utilized to reach a decision. © The Author(s) 2016.

  9. Choices and changes: Eccles' Expectancy-Value model and upper-secondary school students' longitudinal reflections about their choice of a STEM education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lykkegaard, Eva; Ulriksen, Lars

    2016-03-01

    During the past 30 years, Eccles' comprehensive social-psychological Expectancy-Value Model of Motivated Behavioural Choices (EV-MBC model) has been proven suitable for studying educational choices related to Science, Technology, Engineering and/or Mathematics (STEM). The reflections of 15 students in their last year in upper-secondary school concerning their choice of tertiary education were examined using quantitative EV-MBC surveys and repeated qualitative interviews. This article presents the analyses of three cases in detail. The analytical focus was whether the factors indicated in the EV-MBC model could be used to detect significant changes in the students' educational choice processes. An important finding was that the quantitative EV-MBC surveys and the qualitative interviews gave quite different results concerning the students' considerations about the choice of tertiary education, and that significant changes in the students' reflections were not captured by the factors of the EV-MBC model. This questions the validity of the EV-MBC surveys. Moreover, the quantitative factors from the EV-MBC model did not sufficiently explain students' dynamical educational choice processes where students in parallel considered several different potential educational trajectories. We therefore call for further studies of the EV-MBC model's use in describing longitudinal choice processes and especially in investigating significant changes.

  10. Do Methodological Choices in Environmental Modeling Bias Rebound Effects? A Case Study on Electric Cars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Font Vivanco, David; Tukker, Arnold; Kemp, René

    2016-10-18

    Improvements in resource efficiency often underperform because of rebound effects. Calculations of the size of rebound effects are subject to various types of bias, among which methodological choices have received particular attention. Modellers have primarily focused on choices related to changes in demand, however, choices related to modeling the environmental burdens from such changes have received less attention. In this study, we analyze choices in the environmental assessment methods (life cycle assessment (LCA) and hybrid LCA) and environmental input-output databases (E3IOT, Exiobase and WIOD) used as a source of bias. The analysis is done for a case study on battery electric and hydrogen cars in Europe. The results describe moderate rebound effects for both technologies in the short term. Additionally, long-run scenarios are calculated by simulating the total cost of ownership, which describe notable rebound effect sizes-from 26 to 59% and from 18 to 28%, respectively, depending on the methodological choices-with favorable economic conditions. Relevant sources of bias are found to be related to incomplete background systems, technology assumptions and sectorial aggregation. These findings highlight the importance of the method setup and of sensitivity analyses of choices related to environmental modeling in rebound effect assessments.

  11. Building aggregate timber supply models from individual harvest choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maksym Polyakov; David N. Wear; Robert Huggett

    2009-01-01

    Timber supply has traditionally been modelled using aggregate data. In this paper, we build aggregate supply models for four roundwood products for the US state of North Carolina from a stand-level harvest choice model applied to detailed forest inventory. The simulated elasticities of pulpwood supply are much lower than reported by previous studies. Cross price...

  12. Technology domains and manpower choice in the restaurant sector

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hjalager, Anne-Mette

    1999-01-01

    that shift processes to and from suppliers. All occupational groups in the restaurant sector are likely to be affected. Most technologies are found to enhance the deskilling of the staff, leaving empowerment opportunites for management levels only. Dissemination of modern technologies does not take place...... uniformly; variations according to enterprise size and type are evident. The ongoing restructuring of the restaurant sector towards larger establishments and more widespread chain afiliation will intensify technology investments and enhance the likely human resource impacts. A rapid labour turnover limits...... the opportunities for staff or their unions to exercise control over technological impacts on work conditions. Lack of stability leads to similar difficulties for owners/managers of restaurants to influence the direction of technological development, a development which is mainly in the hands of suppliers...

  13. Agent-based modelling of consumer energy choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rai, Varun; Henry, Adam Douglas

    2016-06-01

    Strategies to mitigate global climate change should be grounded in a rigorous understanding of energy systems, particularly the factors that drive energy demand. Agent-based modelling (ABM) is a powerful tool for representing the complexities of energy demand, such as social interactions and spatial constraints. Unlike other approaches for modelling energy demand, ABM is not limited to studying perfectly rational agents or to abstracting micro details into system-level equations. Instead, ABM provides the ability to represent behaviours of energy consumers -- such as individual households -- using a range of theories, and to examine how the interaction of heterogeneous agents at the micro-level produces macro outcomes of importance to the global climate, such as the adoption of low-carbon behaviours and technologies over space and time. We provide an overview of ABM work in the area of consumer energy choices, with a focus on identifying specific ways in which ABM can improve understanding of both fundamental scientific and applied aspects of the demand side of energy to aid the design of better policies and programmes. Future research needs for improving the practice of ABM to better understand energy demand are also discussed.

  14. Institutional influences on business model choice by new ventures in the microgenerated energy industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Provance, Mike; Donnelly, Richard G.; Carayannis, Elias G.

    2011-01-01

    Business model choice plays an important source of competitive advantage for new ventures in the microgeneration sector. Yet, existing literature focuses on strategic management of internal resources as the constraints in this choice process. In the energy sector, external factors may be at least as influential in shaping these business models. This paper examines the roles of politico-institutional and socio-institutional dynamics in the choice of business models for microgeneration ventures. Business models have traditionally been viewed as constructions of the internal values, strategies, and resources of organizations. But, this perspective overlooks the role that external forces have on these models, particularly in more highly institutionalized contexts like microgeneration. When these factors are introduced into the existing framework for business model choice, the business model based less on firm decision-making and more about variables that exist within national innovation systems and political structure, local socio-technological conditions, and cognitive abilities of the entrepreneur and corresponding stakeholders. - Highlights: → This work provides theoretical foundation for variation in microgeneration business models. → Explores institutional influences on strategic view of business model choice. → Compares the nature of microgeneration across geo-political contexts.

  15. Street Choice Logit Model for Visitors in Shopping Districts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ko Kawada

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we propose two models for predicting people’s activity. The first model is the pedestrian distribution prediction (or postdiction model by multiple regression analysis using space syntax indices of urban fabric and people distribution data obtained from a field survey. The second model is a street choice model for visitors using multinomial logit model. We performed a questionnaire survey on the field to investigate the strolling routes of 46 visitors and obtained a total of 1211 street choices in their routes. We proposed a utility function, sum of weighted space syntax indices, and other indices, and estimated the parameters for weights on the basis of maximum likelihood. These models consider both street networks, distance from destination, direction of the street choice and other spatial compositions (numbers of pedestrians, cars, shops, and elevation. The first model explains the characteristics of the street where many people tend to walk or stay. The second model explains the mechanism underlying the street choice of visitors and clarifies the differences in the weights of street choice parameters among the various attributes, such as gender, existence of destinations, number of people, etc. For all the attributes considered, the influences of DISTANCE and DIRECTION are strong. On the other hand, the influences of Int.V, SHOPS, CARS, ELEVATION, and WIDTH are different for each attribute. People with defined destinations tend to choose streets that “have more shops, and are wider and lower”. In contrast, people with undefined destinations tend to choose streets of high Int.V. The choice of males is affected by Int.V, SHOPS, WIDTH (positive and CARS (negative. Females prefer streets that have many shops, and couples tend to choose downhill streets. The behavior of individual persons is affected by all variables. The behavior of people visiting in groups is affected by SHOP and WIDTH (positive.

  16. Sample selection and taste correlation in discrete choice transport modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mabit, Stefan Lindhard

    2008-01-01

    of taste correlation in willingness-to-pay estimation are presented. The first contribution addresses how to incorporate taste correlation in the estimation of the value of travel time for public transport. Given a limited dataset the approach taken is to use theory on the value of travel time as guidance...... many issues that deserve attention. This thesis investigates how sample selection can affect estimation of discrete choice models and how taste correlation should be incorporated into applied mixed logit estimation. Sampling in transport modelling is often based on an observed trip. This may cause...... a sample to be choice-based or governed by a self-selection mechanism. In both cases, there is a possibility that sampling affects the estimation of a population model. It was established in the seventies how choice-based sampling affects the estimation of multinomial logit models. The thesis examines...

  17. Modeling Dynamic Food Choice Processes to Understand Dietary Intervention Effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcum, Christopher Steven; Goldring, Megan R; McBride, Colleen M; Persky, Susan

    2018-02-17

    Meal construction is largely governed by nonconscious and habit-based processes that can be represented as a collection of in dividual, micro-level food choices that eventually give rise to a final plate. Despite this, dietary behavior intervention research rarely captures these micro-level food choice processes, instead measuring outcomes at aggregated levels. This is due in part to a dearth of analytic techniques to model these dynamic time-series events. The current article addresses this limitation by applying a generalization of the relational event framework to model micro-level food choice behavior following an educational intervention. Relational event modeling was used to model the food choices that 221 mothers made for their child following receipt of an information-based intervention. Participants were randomized to receive either (a) control information; (b) childhood obesity risk information; (c) childhood obesity risk information plus a personalized family history-based risk estimate for their child. Participants then made food choices for their child in a virtual reality-based food buffet simulation. Micro-level aspects of the built environment, such as the ordering of each food in the buffet, were influential. Other dynamic processes such as choice inertia also influenced food selection. Among participants receiving the strongest intervention condition, choice inertia decreased and the overall rate of food selection increased. Modeling food selection processes can elucidate the points at which interventions exert their influence. Researchers can leverage these findings to gain insight into nonconscious and uncontrollable aspects of food selection that influence dietary outcomes, which can ultimately improve the design of dietary interventions.

  18. Loss Aversion and Inhibition in Dynamical Models of Multialternative Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Usher, Marius; McClelland, James L.

    2004-01-01

    The roles of loss aversion and inhibition among alternatives are examined in models of the similarity, compromise, and attraction effects that arise in choices among 3 alternatives differing on 2 attributes. R. M. Roe, J. R. Busemeyer, and J. T. Townsend (2001) have proposed a linear model in which effects previously attributed to loss aversion…

  19. Accounting Students’ Choice on Accounting Information Technology Careers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nurul Hasanah Uswati Dewi

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The important role of accounting information systems professionals, motivate researchers to analyze further the interest of students to the profession in the field of accounting information systems. The aim of this study explores the factors that influence students to choose and do not choose a profession in the field of accounting information systems.This research was conducted using questionnaires. The population was undergraduate accounting students. Sample research was done randomly.This research shows that the interest in undergraduate accounting students for a career in the field of information systems is very small and this research also appears that the academic supervisor is one of the dominant factors influencing student choice in choosing a career in the field of information systems. Beside this, this study also found that respondents are not interested in a career in accounting information systems more due to that field of information systems is not a career they aspire.

  20. Modeling Stochastic Route Choice Behaviors with Equivalent Impedance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Li

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A Logit-based route choice model is proposed to address the overlapping and scaling problems in the traditional multinomial Logit model. The nonoverlapping links are defined as a subnetwork, and its equivalent impedance is explicitly calculated in order to simply network analyzing. The overlapping links are repeatedly merged into subnetworks with Logit-based equivalent travel costs. The choice set at each intersection comprises only the virtual equivalent route without overlapping. In order to capture heterogeneity in perception errors of different sizes of networks, different scale parameters are assigned to subnetworks and they are linked to the topological relationships to avoid estimation burden. The proposed model provides an alternative method to model the stochastic route choice behaviors without the overlapping and scaling problems, and it still maintains the simple and closed-form expression from the MNL model. A link-based loading algorithm based on Dial’s algorithm is proposed to obviate route enumeration and it is suitable to be applied on large-scale networks. Finally a comparison between the proposed model and other route choice models is given by numerical examples.

  1. Exclusive queueing model including the choice of service windows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, Masahiro; Yanagisawa, Daichi; Nishinari, Katsuhiro

    2018-01-01

    In a queueing system involving multiple service windows, choice behavior is a significant concern. This paper incorporates the choice of service windows into a queueing model with a floor represented by discrete cells. We contrived a logit-based choice algorithm for agents considering the numbers of agents and the distances to all service windows. Simulations were conducted with various parameters of agent choice preference for these two elements and for different floor configurations, including the floor length and the number of service windows. We investigated the model from the viewpoint of transit times and entrance block rates. The influences of the parameters on these factors were surveyed in detail and we determined that there are optimum floor lengths that minimize the transit times. In addition, we observed that the transit times were determined almost entirely by the entrance block rates. The results of the presented model are relevant to understanding queueing systems including the choice of service windows and can be employed to optimize facility design and floor management.

  2. Situations of Choice: Configuring the Empowered Consumer of Hearing Technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hindhede, Anette Lykke

    2013-01-01

    . The paper shows how recent changes in perception of the hearing impaired patient relate to the introduction of a new health care reform that turns audiological rehabilitation into a consumer issue. Ethnographic and interview data from hearing clinics provides evidence that the hearing technologies...

  3. Energy Choices. Choices for future technology development; Vaegval Energi. Vaegval foer framtidens teknikutveckling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Billfalk, Lennart; Haegermark, Harald (eds.)

    2009-03-15

    In the next few years political decisions lie ahead in Sweden and the EU regarding the detailed formulation of the EU's so-called 20-20-20 targets and accompanying EU directives. Talks on a new international post-2012 climate agreement are imminent. The EU targets involve reducing emissions of greenhouse gases by 20 per cent, increasing the proportion of renewable energy by 20 per cent and improving energy efficiency by 20 per cent - all by the year 2020. According to the analysis of the consequences of the targets that the Technology Development Group has commissioned, the reduction in carbon dioxide in the stationary energy system in the Nordic region will be 40 per cent, not 20 per cent, if all the EU targets are to be achieved. The biggest socio-economic cost is associated with achieving the efficiency target, followed by the costs associated with achieving the renewable energy target and the CO{sub 2} target. On the basis of this analysis and compilations about technology development, we want to highlight the following important key issues: Does Sweden want to have the option of nuclear power in the future or not? How to choose good policy instruments for new electricity production and networks? How best to reduce the carbon dioxide emissions of the transport sector and how to develop control and incentive measures that promote such a development? We are proposing the following: Carry out a more in-depth analysis of the consequences of the EU targets, so that the policy instruments produce the best combination as regards climate, economy and security of supply. To achieve the EU targets would require large investments in electricity production, particularly renewable energy, and in electricity networks. Internationally harmonized policy instruments and other incentive measures are required in order for the necessary investments to take place. The policy instruments have to provide a level playing field for all players in the energy sector. The large

  4. Choice as a Global Language in Local Practice: A Mixed Model of School Choice in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Chin-Ju

    2015-01-01

    This paper uses school choice policy as an example to demonstrate how local actors adopt, mediate, translate, and reformulate "choice" as neo-liberal rhetoric informing education reform. Complex processes exist between global policy about school choice and the local practice of school choice. Based on the theoretical sensibility of…

  5. Young women in science and technology: The importance of choice

    OpenAIRE

    Dimitriadi, Angeliki

    2013-01-01

    Despite significant improvements in the last couple of years, women are still under-represented in science and technology, both in the academic and private sector. This is due to a variety of reasons, mostly related to the role allocated to women in modern society as well as pre-existing prejudices that form glass ceilings while encouraging male presence in the workplace. It is also however, a result of information or lack of, which places young women in difficult position of making a career ...

  6. Day-to-day route choice modeling incorporating inertial behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Essen, Mariska Alice; Rakha, H.; Vreeswijk, Jacob Dirk; Wismans, Luc Johannes Josephus; van Berkum, Eric C.

    2015-01-01

    Accurate route choice modeling is one of the most important aspects when predicting the effects of transport policy and dynamic traffic management. Moreover, the effectiveness of intervention measures to a large extent depends on travelers’ response to the changes these measures cause. As a

  7. Iteration Capping For Discrete Choice Models Using the EM Algorithm

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kabatek, J.

    2013-01-01

    The Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm is a well-established estimation procedure which is used in many domains of econometric analysis. Recent application in a discrete choice framework (Train, 2008) facilitated estimation of latent class models allowing for very exible treatment of unobserved

  8. Incorporating Responsiveness to Marketing Efforts When Modeling Brand Choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D. Fok (Dennis); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); R. Paap (Richard)

    2001-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper we put forward a brand choice model which incorporates responsiveness to marketing efforts as a form of structural heterogeneity. We introduce two latent segments of households. The households in the first segment are assumed to respond to marketing efforts while households

  9. Costly innovators versus cheap imitators: a discrete choice model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hommes, C.; Zeppini, P.

    2010-01-01

    Two alternative ways to an innovative product or process are R&D investment or imitation of others’ innovation. In this article we propose a discrete choice model with costly innovators and free imitators and study the endogenous dynamics of price and demand in a market with many firms producing a

  10. Modeling information technology effectiveness

    OpenAIRE

    Aleksander Lotko

    2005-01-01

    Numerous cases of systems not bringing expected results cause that investments in information technology are treated more and more carefully and are not privileged amongst others. This gives rise to the need for applying costs–effect calculations. Modeling IT effectiveness is a procedure which helps to bring system complexity under control. By using proper measures it is possible to perform an objective investment appraisal for projects under consideration. In the paper, a framework of method...

  11. Choices of capture chromatography technology in antibody manufacturing processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DiLeo, Michael; Ley, Arthur; Nixon, Andrew E; Chen, Jie

    2017-11-15

    The capture process employed in monoclonal antibody downstream purification is not only the most critically impacted process by increased antibody titer resulting from optimized mammalian cell culture expression systems, but also the most important purification step in determining overall process throughput, product quality, and economics. Advances in separation technology for capturing antibodies from complex feedstocks have been one focus of downstream purification process innovation for past 10 years. In this study, we evaluated new generation chromatography resins used in the antibody capture process including Protein A, cation exchange, and mixed mode chromatography to address the benefits and unique challenges posed by each chromatography approach. Our results demonstrate the benefit of improved binding capacity of new generation Protein A resins, address the concern of high concentration surge caused aggregation when using new generation cation exchange resins with over 100mg/mL binding capacity, and highlight the potential of multimodal cation exchange resins for capture process design. The new landscape of capture chromatography technologies provides options to achieve overall downstream purification outcome with high product quality and process efficiency. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Modeling Inertia and Variety Seeking Tendencies in Brand Choice Behavior

    OpenAIRE

    Kapil Bawa

    1990-01-01

    Theories of exploratory behavior suggest that inertia and variety-seeking tendencies may coexist within the individual, implying that the same individual may exhibit inertia and variety-seeking at different times depending on his/her choice history. Past research has not allowed for such -consumer variability in these tendencies. The purpose of this study is to present a choice model that allows us to identify such “hybrid” behavior (i.e., a mixture of inertia and variety-seeking), and to dis...

  13. Incorporating Mental Representations in Discrete Choice Models of Travel Behaviour : Modelling Approach and Empirical Application

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    T.A. Arentze (Theo); B.G.C. Dellaert (Benedict); C.G. Chorus (Casper)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractWe introduce an extension of the discrete choice model to take into account individuals’ mental representation of a choice problem. We argue that, especially in daily activity and travel choices, the activated needs of an individual have an influence on the benefits he or she pursues in

  14. A simplified model of choice behavior under uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ching-Hung Lin

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT has been standardized as a clinical assessment tool (Bechara, 2007. Nonetheless, numerous research groups have attempted to modify IGT models to optimize parameters for predicting the choice behavior of normal controls and patients. A decade ago, most researchers considered the expected utility (EU model (Busemeyer and Stout, 2002 to be the optimal model for predicting choice behavior under uncertainty. However, in recent years, studies have demonstrated the prospect utility (PU models (Ahn et al., 2008 to be more effective than the EU models in the IGT. Nevertheless, after some preliminary tests, we propose that Ahn et al. (2008 PU model is not optimal due to some incompatible results between our behavioral and modeling data. This study aims to modify Ahn et al. (2008 PU model to a simplified model and collected 145 subjects’ IGT performance as the benchmark data for comparison. In our simplified PU model, the best goodness-of-fit was found mostly while α approaching zero. More specifically, we retested the key parameters α, λ , and A in the PU model. Notably, the power of influence of the parameters α, λ, and A has a hierarchical order in terms of manipulating the goodness-of-fit in the PU model. Additionally, we found that the parameters λ and A may be ineffective when the parameter α is close to zero in the PU model. The present simplified model demonstrated that decision makers mostly adopted the strategy of gain-stay-loss-shift rather than foreseeing the long-term outcome. However, there still have other behavioral variables that are not well revealed under these dynamic uncertainty situations. Therefore, the optimal behavioral models may not have been found. In short, the best model for predicting choice behavior under dynamic-uncertainty situations should be further evaluated.

  15. Overview of the MedAustron design and technology choices

    CERN Document Server

    Benedikt, M; Palm, M; Pirkl, W; Dorda, U; Fabich, A

    2010-01-01

    MedAustron is a synchrotron based accelerator facility for cancer treatment in Austria currently in the development phase. The design is based on the PIMMS study [1] and CNAO [2] synchrotron. In addition to the clinical application, the accelerator will also provide beams for nonclinical research in the fields of medical radiation physics, radiation biology and experimental physics with an extended proton energy range beyond medical requirements to 800 MeV. The differences to others medical acceleratorbased facilities will be elaborated, specifically the used source technologies and configuration (starting up with protons (p) and carbon ions (C6+) allowing a later upgrade to ion species up to neon) and the online verification of all relevant beam parameters. The current project status is presented.

  16. Application of rrm as behavior mode choice on modelling transportation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surbakti, M. S.; Sadullah, A. F.

    2018-03-01

    Transportation mode selection, the first step in transportation planning process, is probably one of the most important planning elements. The development of models that can explain the preference of passengers regarding their chosen mode of public transport option will contribute to the improvement and development of existing public transport. Logit models have been widely used to determine the mode choice models in which the alternative are different transport modes. Random Regret Minimization (RRM) theory is a theory developed from the behavior to choose (choice behavior) in a state of uncertainty. During its development, the theory was used in various disciplines, such as marketing, micro economy, psychology, management, and transportation. This article aims to show the use of RRM in various modes of selection, from the results of various studies that have been conducted both in north sumatera and western Java.

  17. Multinomial Logit Model of Choices of Internet Modes in Iraq

    OpenAIRE

    Ph.D. Almas Heshmati; Ph.D. Firas H. Al-Hammadany

    2014-01-01

    Iraq is a country that has the potential to explode onto the Internet market due to the fact that much of Iraq is still largely without access to the Internet. Iraq¡¯s market has much room for corporate and individual investments in Internet technology, mainly, Internet access. However, this requires a deep understanding of the user with regards to the Internet and the market characteristics involved. This study is concerned with the users¡¯ choice of Internet mode connections in Iraq. There ...

  18. Understanding Predisposition in College Choice: Toward an Integrated Model of College Choice and Theory of Reasoned Action

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitre, Paul E.; Johnson, Todd E.; Pitre, Charisse Cowan

    2006-01-01

    This article seeks to improve traditional models of college choice that draw from recruitment and enrollment management paradigms. In adopting a consumer approach to college choice, this article seeks to build upon consumer-related research, which centers on behavior and reasoning. More specifically, this article seeks to move inquiry beyond the…

  19. Robustness of public choice models of voting behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihai UNGUREANU

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Modern economics modeling practice involves highly unrealistic assumptions. Since testing such models is not always an easy enterprise, researchers face the problem of determining whether a result is dependent (or not on the unrealistic details of the model. A solution for this problem is conducting robustness analysis. In its classical form, robustness analysis is a non-empirical method of confirmation – it raises our trust in a given result by implying it with from several different models. In this paper I argue that robustness analysis could be thought as a method of post-empirical failure. This form of robustness analysis involves assigning guilt for the empirical failure to a certain part of the model. Starting from this notion of robustness, I analyze a case of empirical failure from public choice theory or the economic approach of politics. Using the fundamental methodological principles of neoclassical economics, the first model of voting behavior implied that almost no one would vote. This was clearly an empirical failure. Public choice scholars faced the problem of either restraining the domain of their discipline or giving up to some of their neoclassical methodological features. The second solution was chosen and several different models of voting behavior were built. I will treat these models as a case for performing robustness analysis and I will determine which assumption from the original model is guilty for the empirical failure.

  20. Impact of Technology and Feedstock Choice on the Environmental Footprint of Biofuels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, P. B.; Dodder, R. S.

    2012-12-01

    The implementation of the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard program (RFS2) has led to a dramatic shift in the use of biofuel in the U.S. transportation system over the last decade. To satisfy this demand, the production of U.S. corn-based ethanol has grown rapidly, with an average increase of over 25% annually from 2002 to 2010. RFS2 requires a similarly steep increase in the production of advanced biofuels, such as cellulosic ethanol. Unlike corn-based ethanol, which is derived from the biochemical fermentation of sugars in wet and dry mills, it is likely that a more diverse suite of technologies will need to be developed to be able to meet the advanced biofuel RFS2 targets, including biochemical as well as thermochemical (e.g., gasification and pyrolysis) approaches. Rather than relying on energy crops, a potential advantage of thermochemical approaches is the ability to use a wider variety of feedstocks, including municipal solid waste and wood waste. In this work, we conduct a system-level analysis to understand how technology and feedstock choice can impact the environmental footprint of biofuels in the U.S. We use a least-cost optimization model of the U.S. energy system to account for interactions between various components of the energy system: industrial, transportation, electric, and residential/commercial sectors. The model was used to understand the scale of feedstock demand required from dedicated energy crops, as well as other biomass feedstocks, in order to meet the RFS2 mandate. On a regional basis, we compare the overall water-consumption and land requirements for biofuels production given a suite of liquid-fuel production technologies. By considering a range of scenarios, we examine how the use of various feedstocks (e.g., agricultural residues, wood wastes, mill residues and municipal wastes) can be used to off-set environmental impacts as compared to relying solely on energy crops.

  1. A formal model of theory choice in science

    OpenAIRE

    William A. Brock; Steven N. Durlauf

    1999-01-01

    Since the work of Thomas Kuhn, the role of social factors in the scientific enterprise has been a major concern in the philosophy and history of science. In particular, conformity effects among scientists have been used to question whether science naturally progresses over time. Using neoclassical economic reasoning, this paper develops a formal model of scientific theory choice which incorporates social factors. Our results demonstrate that the influence of social factors on scientific progr...

  2. Choices Matter, but How Do We Model Them?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brelsford, C.; Dumas, M.

    2017-12-01

    Quantifying interactions between social systems and the physical environment we live within has long been a major scientific challenge. Humans have had such a large influence on our environment that it is no longer reasonable to consider the behavior of an ecological or hydrological system from a purely `physical' perspective: imagining a system that excludes the influence of human choices and behavior. Understanding the role that human social choices play in the energy water nexus is crucial for developing accurate models in that space. The relatively new field of socio-hydrology is making progress towards understanding the role humans play in hydrological systems. While this fact is now widely recognized across the many academic fields that study water systems, we have yet to develop a coherent set of theories for how to model the behavior of these complex and highly interdependent socio-hydrological systems. How should we conceptualize hydrological systems as socio-ecological systems (i.e. system with variables, states, parameters, actors who can control certain variables and a sense of the desirability of states) within which the rigorous study of feedbacks becomes possible? This talk reviews the state of knowledge of how social decisions around water consumption, allocation, and transport influence and are influenced by the physical hydrology that water also moves within. We cover recent papers in socio-hydrology, engineering, water law, and institutional analysis. There have been several calls within socio-hydrology to model human social behavior endogenously along with the hydrology. These improvements are needed across a range of spatial and temporal scales. We suggest two potential strategies for coupled models that allow endogenous water consumption behavior: a social first model which looks for empirical relationships between water consumption and allocation choices and the hydrological state, and a hydrology first model in which we look for regularities

  3. Modeling extreme events: Sample fraction adaptive choice in parameter estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neves, Manuela; Gomes, Ivette; Figueiredo, Fernanda; Gomes, Dora Prata

    2012-09-01

    When modeling extreme events there are a few primordial parameters, among which we refer the extreme value index and the extremal index. The extreme value index measures the right tail-weight of the underlying distribution and the extremal index characterizes the degree of local dependence in the extremes of a stationary sequence. Most of the semi-parametric estimators of these parameters show the same type of behaviour: nice asymptotic properties, but a high variance for small values of k, the number of upper order statistics to be used in the estimation, and a high bias for large values of k. This shows a real need for the choice of k. Choosing some well-known estimators of those parameters we revisit the application of a heuristic algorithm for the adaptive choice of k. The procedure is applied to some simulated samples as well as to some real data sets.

  4. Simple model for multiple-choice collective decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ching Hua; Lucas, Andrew

    2014-11-01

    We describe a simple model of heterogeneous, interacting agents making decisions between n≥2 discrete choices. For a special class of interactions, our model is the mean field description of random field Potts-like models and is effectively solved by finding the extrema of the average energy E per agent. In these cases, by studying the propagation of decision changes via avalanches, we argue that macroscopic dynamics is well captured by a gradient flow along E. We focus on the permutation symmetric case, where all n choices are (on average) the same, and spontaneous symmetry breaking (SSB) arises purely from cooperative social interactions. As examples, we show that bimodal heterogeneity naturally provides a mechanism for the spontaneous formation of hierarchies between decisions and that SSB is a preferred instability to discontinuous phase transitions between two symmetric points. Beyond the mean field limit, exponentially many stable equilibria emerge when we place this model on a graph of finite mean degree. We conclude with speculation on decision making with persistent collective oscillations. Throughout the paper, we emphasize analogies between methods of solution to our model and common intuition from diverse areas of physics, including statistical physics and electromagnetism.

  5. Renewable generation technology choice and policies in a competitive electricity supply industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarkar, Ashok

    Renewable energy generation technologies have lower externality costs but higher private costs than fossil fuel-based generation. As a result, the choice of renewables in the future generation mix could be affected by the industry's future market-oriented structure because market objectives based on private value judgments may conflict with social policy objectives toward better environmental quality. This research assesses how renewable energy generation choices would be affected in a restructured electricity generation market. A multi-period linear programming-based model (Resource Planning Model) is used to characterize today's electricity supply market in the United States. The model simulates long-range (2000-2020) generation capacity planning and operation decisions under alternative market paradigms. Price-sensitive demand is used to simulate customer preferences in the market. Dynamically changing costs for renewables and a two-step load duration curve are used. A Reference Case represents the benchmark for a socially-optimal diffusion of renewables and a basis for comparing outcomes under alternative market structures. It internalizes externality costs associated with emissions of sulfur dioxide (SOsb2), nitrous oxides (NOsbx), and carbon dioxide (COsb2). A Competitive Case represents a market with many generation suppliers and decision-making based on private costs. Finally, a Market Power Case models the extreme case of market power: monopoly. The results suggest that the share of renewables would decrease (and emissions would increase) considerably in both the Competitive and the Market Power Cases with respect to the Reference Case. The reduction is greater in the Market Power Case due to pricing decisions under existing supply capability. The research evaluates the following environmental policy options that could overcome market failures in achieving an appropriate level of renewable generation: COsb2 emissions tax, SOsb2 emissions cap, renewable

  6. Choice certainty in Discrete Choice Experiments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Uggeldahl, Kennet Christian; Jacobsen, Catrine; Lundhede, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    In this study, we conduct a Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE) using eye tracking technology to investigate if eye movements during the completion of choice sets reveal information about respondents’ choice certainty. We hypothesise that the number of times that respondents shift their visual...... attention between the alternatives in a choice set reflects their stated choice certainty. Based on one of the largest samples of eye tracking data in a DCE to date, we find evidence in favor of our hypothesis. We also link eye tracking observations to model-based choice certainty through parameterization...... of the scale function in a random parameters logit model. We find that choices characterized by more frequent gaze shifting do indeed exhibit a higher degree of error variance, however, this effects is insignificant once response time is controlled for. Overall, findings suggest that eye tracking can provide...

  7. Linking Data Choices and Context Specificity in Life Cycle Assessment of Waste Treatment Technologies: A Landfill Case Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, Trine; Astrup, Thomas Fruergaard; Damgaard, Anders

    2017-01-01

    To generate meaningful results, life cycle assessments (LCAs) require accurate technology data that are consistent with the goal and scope of the analysis. While literature data are available for many products and processes, finding representative data for highly site-specific technologies, such as...... addressed by a systematic analysis of the key process parameters. Therefore, a thorough understanding of the targeted waste treatment technologies is necessary to ensure that appropriate data choices are made within the boundaries of the defined scope of the study.......To generate meaningful results, life cycle assessments (LCAs) require accurate technology data that are consistent with the goal and scope of the analysis. While literature data are available for many products and processes, finding representative data for highly site-specific technologies......, such as waste treatment processes, remains a challenge. This study investigated representative life cycle inventory (LCI) modeling of waste treatment technologies in consideration of variations in technological level and climate. The objectives were to demonstrate the importance of representative LCI modeling...

  8. Impacts of Electricity Market Reforms on the Choice of Nuclear and Other Generation Technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2016-05-01

    Electricity market reforms have been underway worldwide for the last 20 years. They have included restructuring, privatization, regulation and the introduction of market mechanisms in electricity generation and trading. This publication analyses the impacts of these reforms as well as non-reform factors, on the selection of electricity generation technologies, including nuclear power, by investors. A country case study approach has been adopted in developing the material presented in the publication. Each case study is organized around the following themes: rationale for reform; nature of the electricity market reform; how has the reform shaped the allocation of investment risk in electricity markets and how has this risk allocation influenced investor choice of generation technologies; and finally, how have non-reform related factors influenced investors’ choice. This report will be of use by stakeholders in the strategic planning of the electricity sector, including policy makers, policy analysts, policy advisors, power sector regulators and utility operators

  9. Business Models and Technological Innovation

    OpenAIRE

    Baden-Fuller, Charles; Haefliger, Stefan

    2013-01-01

    Business models are fundamentally linked with technological innovation, yet the business model construct is essentially separable from technology. We define the business model as a system that solves the problem of identifying who is (or are) the customer(s), engaging with their needs, delivering satisfaction, and monetizing the value. The framework depicts the business model system as a model containing cause and effect relationships, and it provides a basis for classification. We formulate ...

  10. Closing the gap between behavior and models in route choice: The role of spatiotemporal constraints and latent traits in choice set formation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    A considerable gap exists between the behavioral paradigm of choice set formation in route choice and its representation in route choice modeling. While travelers form their viable choice set by retaining routes that satisfy spatiotemporal constraints, existing route generation techniques do not ...... spatiotemporal constraints and latent traits in route choice models, and (iii) the linkage between spatiotemporal constraints and time saving, spatial and mnemonic abilities....

  11. Human Nonindependent Mate Choice: Is Model Female Attractiveness Everything?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonios Vakirtzis

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Following two decades of research on non-human animals, there has recently been increased interest in human nonindependent mate choice, namely the ways in which choosing women incorporate information about a man's past or present romantic partners (‘model females’ into their own assessment of the male. Experimental studies using static facial images have generally found that men receive higher desirability ratings from female raters when presented with attractive (compared to unattractive model females. This phenomenon has a straightforward evolutionary explanation: the fact that female mate value is more dependent on physical attractiveness compared to male mate value. Furthermore, due to assortative mating for attractiveness, men who are paired with attractive women are more likely to be of high mate value themselves. Here, we also examine the possible relevance of model female cues other than attractiveness (personality and behavioral traits by presenting video recordings of model females to a set of female raters. The results confirm that the model female's attractiveness is the primary cue. Contrary to some earlier findings in the human and nonhuman literature, we found no evidence that female raters prefer partners of slightly older model females. We conclude by suggesting some promising variations on the present experimental design.

  12. Mode choice model for vulnerable motorcyclists in Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibrahim Sheikh, A K; Radin Umar, R S; Habshah, M; Kassim, H; Stevenson, Mark; Ahmed, Hariza

    2006-06-01

    In developing countries, motorcycle use has grown in popularity in the past decades. Commensurate with this growth is the increase in death and casualties among motorcyclists in these countries. One of the strategic programs to minimize this problem is to reduce motorcyclists exposure by shifting them into safer modes of transport. This study aims to explore the differences in the characteristics of bus and motorcycle users. It identifies the factors contributing to their choice of transport mode and estimates the probability that motorcyclists might change their travel mode to a safer alternative; namely, bus travel. In this article, a survey of 535 motorcycle and bus users was conducted in seven districts of Selangor state, Malaysia. A binary logit model was developed for the two alternative modes, bus and motorcycle. It was found that travel time, travel cost, gender, age, and income level are significant in influencing motorcyclists' mode choice behavior. The probability of motorcycle riders shifting to public transport was also examined based on a scenario of a reduction in bus travel time and travel cost. Reduction of total travel time for the bus mode emerges as the most important element in a program aimed at attracting motorcyclists towards public transport and away from the motorcycle mode.

  13. Market Assessment For Traveler Services, A Choice Modeling Study Phase Iii, Fast-Trac Deliverable, #16B: Final Choice Modeling Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-02-12

    FAST-TRAC : THIS REPORT DESCRIBES THE CHOICE MODEL STUDY OF THE FAST-TRAC (FASTER AND SAFER TRAVEL THROUGH TRAFFIC ROUTING AND ADVANCED CONTROLS) OPERATIONAL TEST IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. CHOICE MODELING IS A STATED-PREFERENCE APPROACH IN WHICH RESP...

  14. Gender stereotypes among women engineering and technology students in the UK: lessons from career choice narratives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, Abigail; Dainty, Andrew; Bagilhole, Barbara

    2012-12-01

    In the UK, women remain under-represented in engineering and technology (E&T). Research has, therefore, investigated barriers and solutions to women's recruitment, retention and progression. Recruitment into the sector may be supported by exploring the career decisions of women and men who have chosen to study E&T. Triangulating quantitative and qualitative data from E&T students at a UK university, this paper examines the gendered nature of career choice narratives. It finds that women often maintain contradictory views; upholding gendered stereotypes about women's suitability for the so-called masculine work, yet also subscribing to ideals that the sector is accessible to all who wish to work in it. This is explained using an individualist framework in which women construct an autonomous sense of self, yet are also shaped by a gendered self. Women's discourse around career choice, therefore, reveals the problematic nature of gender norms for achieving gender equity in E&T.

  15. Your future in Science and Technology: breathtaking opportunities and significant choices

    KAUST Repository

    Metayer, Estelle

    2017-01-18

    A voyage into the technologies which will change our world in the next 20 years. A deep thinking into the responsibilities that will come from the scientific choices we make, and the dilemmas the science and technology community will have to resolve. Weメll also explore the new industries and jobs that will emerge and how you, in this fascinating new world, will develop the personal skills and toolkit to learn to pick weak signals, probe your blindspots and grow as a leader. Finally, this thought-provoking keynote will demystify the profound impact science and technology will have in the future of work, our relations with each other, and with the world around us.

  16. Assistive technology for promoting choice behaviors in three children with cerebral palsy and severe communication impairments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stasolla, Fabrizio; Caffò, Alessandro O; Picucci, Luciana; Bosco, Andrea

    2013-09-01

    A technology-based program to promote independent choice behaviors by three children with cerebral palsy and multiple disabilities was assessed. The program was based on learning principles and assistive technology (i.e., customized input devices/sensors, personal computers, screening of preferred stimuli according to a binomial criterion). The first purpose of the present study was to provide the participants with a new set-up of assistive technology and to allow them to choose among three categories (i.e., food, beverage and leisure), and to request a specific item out of four in each category, adopting a procedure that minimized (according to a conditional probability criterion) unintentional choices. The second aim of the study was to carry out the effects of the program on detectable mood signs (i.e., happiness index). The study was conducted according to an ABAB sequence with a subsequent post intervention check for each participant. The results showed an increase of engagement and of the happiness index during intervention phases. Psychological as well as educational implications were discussed. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. A Probabilistic, Dynamic, and Attribute-wise Model of Intertemporal Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Junyi; Busemeyer, Jerome R.

    2014-01-01

    Most theoretical and empirical research on intertemporal choice assumes a deterministic and static perspective, leading to the widely adopted delay discounting models. As a form of preferential choice, however, intertemporal choice may be generated by a stochastic process that requires some deliberation time to reach a decision. We conducted three experiments to investigate how choice and decision time varied as a function of manipulations designed to examine the delay duration effect, the common difference effect, and the magnitude effect in intertemporal choice. The results, especially those associated with the delay duration effect, challenged the traditional deterministic and static view and called for alternative approaches. Consequently, various static or dynamic stochastic choice models were explored and fit to the choice data, including alternative-wise models derived from the traditional exponential or hyperbolic discount function and attribute-wise models built upon comparisons of direct or relative differences in money and delay. Furthermore, for the first time, dynamic diffusion models, such as those based on decision field theory, were also fit to the choice and response time data simultaneously. The results revealed that the attribute-wise diffusion model with direct differences, power transformations of objective value and time, and varied diffusion parameter performed the best and could account for all three intertemporal effects. In addition, the empirical relationship between choice proportions and response times was consistent with the prediction of diffusion models and thus favored a stochastic choice process for intertemporal choice that requires some deliberation time to make a decision. PMID:24635188

  18. Thresholds models of technological transitions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zeppini, P.; Frenken, K.; Kupers, R.

    2014-01-01

    We present a systematic review of seven threshold models of technological transitions from physics, biology, economics and sociology. The very same phenomenon of a technological transition can be explained by very different logics, ranging from economic explanations based on price, performance and

  19. Estimating Route Choice Models from Stochastically Generated Choice Sets on Large-Scale Networks Correcting for Unequal Sampling Probability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vacca, Alessandro; Prato, Carlo Giacomo; Meloni, Italo

    2015-01-01

    is the dependency of the parameter estimates from the choice set generation technique. Bias introduced in model estimation has been corrected only for the random walk algorithm, which has problematic applicability to large-scale networks. This study proposes a correction term for the sampling probability of routes...

  20. Development of discrete choice model considering internal reference points and their effects in travel mode choice context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarif; Kurauchi, Shinya; Yoshii, Toshio

    2017-06-01

    In the conventional travel behavior models such as logit and probit, decision makers are assumed to conduct the absolute evaluations on the attributes of the choice alternatives. On the other hand, many researchers in cognitive psychology and marketing science have been suggesting that the perceptions of attributes are characterized by the benchmark called “reference points” and the relative evaluations based on them are often employed in various choice situations. Therefore, this study developed a travel behavior model based on the mental accounting theory in which the internal reference points are explicitly considered. A questionnaire survey about the shopping trip to the CBD in Matsuyama city was conducted, and then the roles of reference points in travel mode choice contexts were investigated. The result showed that the goodness-of-fit of the developed model was higher than that of the conventional model, indicating that the internal reference points might play the major roles in the choice of travel mode. Also shown was that the respondents seem to utilize various reference points: some tend to adopt the lowest fuel price they have experienced, others employ fare price they feel in perceptions of the travel cost.

  1. The Answering Process for Multiple-Choice Questions in Collaborative Learning: A Mathematical Learning Model Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamura, Yasuyuki; Nishi, Shinnosuke; Muramatsu, Yuta; Yasutake, Koichi; Yamakawa, Osamu; Tagawa, Takahiro

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we introduce a mathematical model for collaborative learning and the answering process for multiple-choice questions. The collaborative learning model is inspired by the Ising spin model and the model for answering multiple-choice questions is based on their difficulty level. An intensive simulation study predicts the possibility of…

  2. Persuasive Technology and Business Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søndergaard, Morten Karnøe; Lindgren, Peter; Veirum, Niels Einar

    specific behavior, this results to the ability of designing for specific changes. Businesses use different persuasive technologies to persuade users, customers and network partners to change behavior. Operating more than one value proposition, both tangible and intangible value proposition, in combination...... seems to be crucial to the success of a persuasive business model. We will give a short introduction into the area of persuasive technology and business models. Moreover, we will present a number of concrete case examples where persuasive technologies were employed, the first in health care, the second...

  3. A Conditional Curie-Weiss Model for Stylized Multi-group Binary Choice with Social Interaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Opoku, Alex Akwasi; Edusei, Kwame Owusu; Ansah, Richard Kwame

    2018-04-01

    This paper proposes a conditional Curie-Weiss model as a model for decision making in a stylized society made up of binary decision makers that face a particular dichotomous choice between two options. Following Brock and Durlauf (Discrete choice with social interaction I: theory, 1955), we set-up both socio-economic and statistical mechanical models for the choice problem. We point out when both the socio-economic and statistical mechanical models give rise to the same self-consistent equilibrium mean choice level(s). Phase diagram of the associated statistical mechanical model and its socio-economic implications are discussed.

  4. Empirical analyses of a choice model that captures ordering among attribute values

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mabit, Stefan Lindhard

    2017-01-01

    an alternative additionally because it has the highest price. In this paper, we specify a discrete choice model that takes into account the ordering of attribute values across alternatives. This model is used to investigate the effect of attribute value ordering in three case studies related to alternative-fuel...... vehicles, mode choice, and route choice. In our application to choices among alternative-fuel vehicles, we see that especially the price coefficient is sensitive to changes in ordering. The ordering effect is also found in the applications to mode and route choice data where both travel time and cost...

  5. Joint Residence-Workplace Location Choice Model Based on Household Decision Behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pengpeng Jiao

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Residence location and workplace are the two most important urban land-use types, and there exist strong interdependences between them. Existing researches often assume that one choice dimension is correlated to the other. Using the mixed logit framework, three groups of choice models are developed to illustrate such choice dependencies. First, for all households, this paper presents a basic methodology of the residence location and workplace choice without decision sequence based on the assumption that the two choice behaviors are independent of each other. Second, the paper clusters all households into two groups, choosing residence or workplace first, and formulates the residence location and workplace choice models under the constraint of decision sequence. Third, this paper combines the residence location and workplace together as the choice alternative and puts forward the joint choice model. A questionnaire survey is implemented in Beijing city to collect the data of 1994 households. Estimation results indicate that the joint choice model fits the data significantly better, and the elasticity effects analyses show that the joint choice model reflects the influences of relevant factors to the choice probability well and leads to the job-housing balance.

  6. Nonparametric Identification and Estimation of Finite Mixture Models of Dynamic Discrete Choices

    OpenAIRE

    Hiroyuki Kasahara; Katsumi Shimotsu

    2006-01-01

    In dynamic discrete choice analysis, controlling for unobserved heterogeneity is an important issue, and finite mixture models provide flexible ways to account for unobserved heterogeneity. This paper studies nonparametric identifiability of type probabilities and type-specific component distributions in finite mixture models of dynamic discrete choices. We derive sufficient conditions for nonparametric identification for various finite mixture models of dynamic discrete choices used in appli...

  7. How robotics programs influence young women's career choices : a grounded theory model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craig, Cecilia Dosh-Bluhm

    The fields of engineering, computer science, and physics have a paucity of women despite decades of intervention by universities and organizations. Women's graduation rates in these fields continue to stagnate, posing a critical problem for society. This qualitative grounded theory (GT) study sought to understand how robotics programs influenced young women's career decisions and the program's effect on engineering, physics, and computer science career interests. To test this, a study was mounted to explore how the FIRST (For Inspiration and Recognition of Science and Technology) Robotics Competition (FRC) program influenced young women's college major and career choices. Career theories suggested that experiential programs coupled with supportive relationships strongly influence career decisions, especially for science, technology, engineering, and mathematics careers. The study explored how and when young women made career decisions and how the experiential program and! its mentors and role models influenced career choice. Online focus groups and interviews (online and face-to-face) with 10 female FRC alumnae and GT processes (inductive analysis, open coding, categorizations using mind maps and content clouds) were used to generate a general systems theory style model of the career decision process for these young women. The study identified gender stereotypes and other career obstacles for women. The study's conclusions include recommendations to foster connections to real-world challenges, to develop training programs for mentors, and to nurture social cohesion, a mostly untapped area. Implementing these recommendations could help grow a critical mass of women in engineering, physics, and computer science careers, a social change worth pursuing.

  8. Locked in or true love: Branding among banks : A qualitative study of technologies, brand equity, switching barriers, choice criteria and future strategies in the context of retail banking

    OpenAIRE

    Abrahamsson, David

    2014-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to increase the knowledge about technology based services affection of the ability of retail banks to build customer based brand equity among students. Design/methodology/approach – A conceptual model has been developed from theories regarding customer based brand equity, switching barriers and choice criteria. Based on this conceptual model, seven in depth interviews including several brand elicitation techniques were conducted. Findings – The findings ...

  9. Mixing process in the preparation of feed pellets at technological conditions rational parametres choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. S. Shentsova

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The mixing of ingredients – the most important process step in the manufacture of fodder pellets. The technology involves using molasses (warmed to 30–40 °C as a binder. In its composition is administered a mixture of salts of trace elements (copper sulfate, zinc sulfate, cobalt carbonate, potassium iodide, ferrous sulfate, manganese sulfate, sodium selenite, vitamins, salt, magnesium oxide, feed limestone, mono calcium phosphate and lime. Research on the development of feed pellets were carried out in laboratory conditions using experimental equipment. Mixer-reactor created the conditions for heating and temperature control of mass be mixed due to the occurring chemical reaction between water contained in the molasses, and the presence of oxides of calcium and magnesium. The choice of rational parameters of the mixing process upon receipt of fodder pellets allows to provide the high quality product with minimal energy costs. The ranges of the input information factors selected with the aid of a central rotatable uniforms-planning allowed with 56 experiments in a third-multiple replication to obtain the regression equation adequately describing the mixing process. The main factors were: the content of molasses, %; the content of calcium oxide, %; frequency of rotation of the stirrer, rpm; the content of salt in the recipe, %; the temperature of blending, °C. Output factors – productivity, kg/h; energy consumption, kWh; homogeneity of mixing, %. In the result of experiments impact factors and mathematical model of the process that allows to define output parameters within chosen ranges of variation of input factors are obtained. Greatest influence – the content of molasses in the product, the lowest – content of salt in the recipe. Efficiency of mixing hard distributed components pertaining to the most important biologically active substances was evaluated. Content (% of entered of vitamins and minerals in the pellets did not differ

  10. Advanced Mirror & Modelling Technology Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Effinger, Michael; Stahl, H. Philip; Abplanalp, Laura; Maffett, Steven; Egerman, Robert; Eng, Ron; Arnold, William; Mosier, Gary; Blaurock, Carl

    2014-01-01

    The 2020 Decadal technology survey is starting in 2018. Technology on the shelf at that time will help guide selection to future low risk and low cost missions. The Advanced Mirror Technology Development (AMTD) team has identified development priorities based on science goals and engineering requirements for Ultraviolet Optical near-Infrared (UVOIR) missions in order to contribute to the selection process. One key development identified was lightweight mirror fabrication and testing. A monolithic, stacked, deep core mirror was fused and replicated twice to achieve the desired radius of curvature. It was subsequently successfully polished and tested. A recently awarded second phase to the AMTD project will develop larger mirrors to demonstrate the lateral scaling of the deep core mirror technology. Another key development was rapid modeling for the mirror. One model focused on generating optical and structural model results in minutes instead of months. Many variables could be accounted for regarding the core, face plate and back structure details. A portion of a spacecraft model was also developed. The spacecraft model incorporated direct integration to transform optical path difference to Point Spread Function (PSF) and between PSF to modulation transfer function. The second phase to the project will take the results of the rapid mirror modeler and integrate them into the rapid spacecraft modeler.

  11. The Effects of Land Use Patterns on Tour Type Choice. The Application of a Hybrid Choice Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    de Abreu e Silva, João; Sottile, Eleonora; Cherchi, Elisabetta

    2014-01-01

    to travel. Workers who reside in more central, mixed and traditional urban spaces tend to have a higher propensity to travel. Workers who live in more diverse areas have a higher probability of engaging in more complex work related tours. Working in more suburban areas reduces the probability of engaging......The relations between travel behavior and land use patterns have been the object of intensive research in the last two decades. Due to their immediate policy implications, mode choice and vehicle miles of travel (VMT) have been the main focus of attention. Other relevant dimensions, like trip...... of the latent propensity to travel in the discrete choice among types of tours. This model is applied to a travel diary of workers collected in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area in 2009. Different model specifications were built, testing the inclusion of purportedly built land use factors, which have the advantage...

  12. A comprehensive dwelling unit choice model accommodating psychological constructs within a search strategy for consideration set formation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-12-01

    This study adopts a dwelling unit level of analysis and considers a probabilistic choice set generation approach for residential choice modeling. In doing so, we accommodate the fact that housing choices involve both characteristics of the dwelling u...

  13. Technology Transfer Issues and a New Technology Transfer Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Hee Jun

    2009-01-01

    The following are major issues that should be considered for efficient and effective technology transfer: conceptions of technology, technological activity and transfer, communication channels, factors affecting transfer, and models of transfer. In particular, a well-developed model of technology transfer could be used as a framework for…

  14. Persons with multiple disabilities engage in stimulus choice and postural control with the support of a technology-aided program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lancioni, Giulio E; Singh, Nirbhay N; O'Reilly, Mark F; Sigafoos, Jeff; Perilli, Viviana; Campodonico, Francesca; Marchiani, Paola; Lang, Russell

    2015-05-01

    Technology-aided programs have been reported to help persons with disabilities develop adaptive responding and control problem behavior/posture. This study assessed one such program in which choice of stimulus events was used as adaptive responding for three adults with multiple disabilities. A computer system presented the participants stimulus samples. For each sample, they could perform a choice response (gaining access to the related stimulus whose length they could extend) or abstain from responding (making the system proceed to the next sample). Once choice responding had strengthened, the program also targeted the participants' problem posture (i.e., head and trunk forward bending). The stimulus exposure gained with a choice response was interrupted if the problem posture occurred. All three participants successfully (a) managed choice responses and access to preferred stimuli and (b) gained postural control (i.e., reducing the problem posture to very low levels). The practical implications of those results are discussed. © The Author(s) 2015.

  15. Choice of Innovative Technologies as a Factor of Modernization of the Industrial Plants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evgheniya A. Panfilova

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article analyzes the need to develop a new type of interaction between providers of the equipment and its end-users in a changing social and cultural reality. This type of interaction is a guarantee of innovative modernization of Russian industrial facilities, as it is based on a revision of the social reality in light of new information and/or knowledge. The choice of innovative technologies that contribute to fruitful and qualitative relationships among the actors of the social process acquires significance since there have been changes in the role, objectives and potential of technology. The author focuses on the changes in perceptions of social time and space, reflection of consumers (the impact of economic, social and psychological factors on their decision to purchase, and suppliers. There is a reflection of the habitus of social actors in the context of social interaction, based on the organization of innovative practices. Today technology is also reflecting, its symbolic characteristics, contained in the codes of signification, become more important, than technical ones. The research is based on in-depth interviews with experts from the pharmaceutical industry aimed at identifying the factors influencing the decision to purchase an innovative high-quality imported equipments and machinery, which would contribute to the modernization of the existing production process. The author concludes that adequate reflection which promotes the creation and dissemination of new social practices based on close and confidential contacts and development of flexible communication tools would provide for successful modernization of Russia.

  16. Making Energy-Efficiency and Productivity Investments in Commercial Buildings: Choice of Investment Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, D.W.

    2002-05-16

    This study examines the decision to invest in buildings and the types of investment decision rules that may be employed to inform the ''go--no go'' decision. There is a range of decision making tools available to help in investment choices, which range from simple rules of thumb such as payback periods, to life-cycle analysis, to decision theoretic approaches. Payback period analysis tends to point toward lower first costs, whereas life-cycle analysis tends to minimize uncertainties over future events that can affect profitability. We conclude that investment models that integrate uncertainty offer better explanations for the behavior that is observed, i.e., people tend to delay investments in technologies that life-cycle analysis finds cost-effective, and these models also lead to an alternative set of policies targeted at reducing of managing uncertainty.

  17. Choices and changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lykkegaard, Eva; Ulriksen, Lars

    2016-01-01

    During the past 30 years, Eccles? comprehensive social-psychological Expectancy-Value Model of Motivated Behavioural Choices (EV-MBC model) has been proven suitable for studying educational choices related to Science, Technology, Engineering and/or Mathematics (STEM). The reflections of 15 students...... could be used to detect significant changes in the students? educational choice processes. An important finding was that the quantitative EV-MBC surveys and the qualitative interviews gave quite different results concerning the students? considerations about the choice of tertiary education......, and that significant changes in the students? reflections were not captured by the factors of the EV-MBC model. This questions the validity of the EV-MBC surveys. Moreover, the quantitative factors from the EV-MBC model did not sufficiently explain students? dynamical educational choice processes where students...

  18. Economic, energy and greenhouse emissions impacts of some consumer choice, technology and government outlay options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lenzen, Manfred; Dey, Christopher J.

    2002-01-01

    The impacts of selected spending options in the Australian economy are determined in terms of energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions and a range of economic parameters. Six case studies of one current-practice and one alternative, environmentally motivated spending option are carried out, describing consumer choices, technologies and government outlays. The assessment method is based on input-output theory and, as such, enables both the direct and indirect effects of spending to be quantified. In general, the results indicate that pro-environmental objectives, such as reductions in energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, are compatible with broad socio-economic benefits, such as increases in employment and income, and reductions in imports

  19. Individual characteristics and stated preferences for alternative energy sources and propulsion technologies in vehicles: A discrete choice analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Ziegler, Andreas

    2010-01-01

    This paper empirically examines the determinants of the demand for alternative energy sources and propulsion technologies in vehicles. The data stem from a stated preference discrete choice experiment with 598 potential car buyers. In order to simulate a realistic automobile purchase situation, seven alternatives were incorporated in each of the six choice sets, i.e. hybrid, gas, biofuel, hydrogen, and electric as well as the common fuels gasoline and diesel. The vehicle types were additional...

  20. Assessing the value of museums with a combined discrete choice/ count data model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rouwendal, J.; Boter, J.

    2009-01-01

    This article assesses the value of Dutch museums using information about destination choice as well as about the number of trips undertaken by an actor. Destination choice is analysed by means of a mixed logit model, and a count data model is used to explain trip generation. We use a

  1. Emerging Australian Education Markets: A Discrete Choice Model of Taiwanese and Indonesian Student Intended Study Destination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kemp, Steven; Madden, Gary; Simpson, Michael

    1998-01-01

    Isolates factors influencing choice of Australia as a preferred destination for international students in emerging regional markets. Uses data obtained from a survey of students in Indonesia and Taiwan to estimate a U.S./Australia and rest-of-world/Australia discrete destination-choice model. This model identifies key factors determining country…

  2. MODELLING CONSUMER CHOICE IN THE MARKET SWITCHBOARD EQUIPMENT USING IBM SPSS STATISTICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergey V. Mkhitaryan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Modelling consumer choice in the marketswitch equipment will allow manufacturing enterprises to improve the efficiencyof design and marketing activities byreducing the financial and human losses associated with pre-treatment orders. Todevelop a model of consumer choice canbe used logistic regression.

  3. Analysis of strength-of-preference measures in dichotomous choice models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald F. Dennis; Peter Newman; Robert Manning

    2008-01-01

    Choice models are becoming increasingly useful for soliciting and analyzing multiple objective decisions faced by recreation managers and others interested in decisions involving natural resources. Choice models are used to estimate relative values for multiple aspects of natural resource management, not individually but within the context of other relevant decision...

  4. Stated choice models for predicting the impact of user fees at public recreation sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herbert W. Schroeder; Jordan Louviere

    1999-01-01

    A crucial question in the implementation of fee programs is how the users of recreation sites will respond to various levels and types of fees. Stated choice models can help managers anticipate the impact of user fees on people's choices among the alternative recreation sites available to them. Models developed for both day and overnight trips to several areas and...

  5. Bioprinting technologies for disease modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Memic, Adnan; Navaei, Ali; Mirani, Bahram

    2017-01-01

    the critical characteristics of human physiology. Alternatively, three-dimensional (3D) tissue models are often developed in a low-throughput manner and lack crucial native-like architecture. The recent emergence of bioprinting technologies has enabled creating 3D tissue models that address the critical...... challenges of conventional in vitro assays through the development of custom bioinks and patient derived cells coupled with well-defined arrangements of biomaterials. Here, we provide an overview on the technological aspects of 3D bioprinting technique and discuss how the development of bioprinted tissue...... models have propelled our understanding of diseases’ characteristics (i.e. initiation and progression). The future perspectives on the use of bioprinted 3D tissue models for drug discovery application are also highlighted....

  6. The Information Technology Model Curriculum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ekstrom, Joseph J.; Gorka, Sandra; Kamali, Reza; Lawson, Eydie; Lunt, Barry; Miller, Jacob; Reichgelt, Han

    2006-01-01

    The last twenty years has seen the development of demand for a new type of computing professional, which has resulted in the emergence of the academic discipline of Information Technology (IT). Numerous colleges and universities across the country and abroad have responded by developing programs without the advantage of an existing model for…

  7. DETERMINANTS OF THE CHOICE OF MARKETING CHANNELS BY CORPORATE CLIENTS: AN ANALYSIS OF THE INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY SECTOR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guilherme Soares

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Based on a survey of 505 corporate clients from the information technology industry, this study uses a logit statistical model to analyze whether such factors as loyalty, trust, client importance, intimacy between customer and supplier and the cost of changing suppliers may affect the choice of the marketing channel used by the client. The results show that the greater intimacy between a supplier and a corporate client is a determining factor for the client’s preference for being served by the manufacturer rather than an intermediary. In contrast, clients’ perception of their own importance to the supplier is not very relevant to their preference for being served directly by the manufacturer, and the other factors were not identified as (statistically important determinants of the choice of the marketing channel. These results suggest that the real advantage of the direct sales channel over the indirect sales channel lies in its ability to strengthen the client-manufacturer relationship, thereby contributing to the development of solutions that better serve the needs of corporate clients.

  8. Modeling issues & choices in the data mining optimization ontology

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Keet, CM

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available We describe the Data Mining Optimization Ontology (DMOP), which was developed to support informed decision-making at various choice points of the knowledge discovery (KD) process. It can be used as a reference by data miners, but its primary purpose...

  9. Consumer choice models on the effect of promotions in retailing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Guyt, Jonne

    2015-01-01

    This doctoral thesis contains three empirical essays regarding the effect of promotions on consumer choices in a retailing context. The first essay studies the scheduling of featured price cuts for national brands, across retail chains. It shows that coordinating promotions across chains influences

  10. Black Students, Black Colleges: An African American College Choice Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonough, Patricia M.; Antonio, Anthony Lising; Trent, James W.

    1997-01-01

    Explores African Americans' college choice decisions, based on a national sample of 220,757 freshmen. Independent of gender, family income, or educational aspiration, the most powerful predictors for choosing historically black colleges and universities are geography, religion, the college's academic reputation, and relatives' desires. The top…

  11. Fund choice behavior and estimation of switching models: an experiment*

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anufriev, M.; Bao, T.; Tuinstra, J.

    2013-01-01

    We run a laboratory experiment that contributes to the finance literature on "return chasing behavior" studying how investors switch between mutual funds driven by past performance of the funds. The subjects in this experiment make discrete choices between several (2, 3 or 4) experimental funds in

  12. LNG Regasification Terminals: The Role of Geography and Meteorology on Technology Choices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Randeep Agarwal

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Liquefied natural gas (LNG projects are regulated by host countries, but policy and regulation should depend on geography and meteorology. Without considering the role of geography and meteorology, sub-optimal design choices can result, leading to energy conversion efficiency and capital investment decisions that are less than ideal. A key step in LNG is regasification, which transforms LNG back from liquid to the gaseous state and requires substantial heat input. This study investigated different LNG regasification technologies used around the world and benchmarked location and meteorology-related factors, such as seawater temperatures, ambient air temperatures, wind speeds and relative humidity. Seawater vaporizers are used for more than 95% of locations subject to water quality. Ambient air conditions are relatively better for South America, India, Spain and other Asian countries (Singapore, Taiwan, Indonesia, and Thailand and provide a much cleaner regasification technology option for natural and forced draft systems and air-based intermediate fluid vaporizers. On a global basis, cold energy utilization currently represents <1% of the total potential, but this approach could deliver nearly 12 Gigawatt (GW per annum. Overall, climate change is expected to have a positive financial impact on the LNG regasification industry, but the improvement could be unevenly distributed.

  13. Energy Performance Impacts from Competing Low-slope Roofing Choices and Photovoltaic Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagengast, Amy L.

    With such a vast quantity of space, commercial low-slope roofs offer significant potential for sustainable roofing technology deployment. Specifically, building energy performance can be improved by installing rooftop energy technologies such as photovoltaic (PV) panels, and/or including designs such as white or green roofs instead of traditional black. This research aims to inform and support roof decisions through quantified energy performance impacts across roof choices and photovoltaic technologies. The primary dataset for this research was measured over a 16 month period (May 24, 2011 to October 13, 2012) from a large field experiment in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania on top of a commercial warehouse with white, black and green roof sections, each with portions covered by polycrystalline photovoltaic panels. Results from the Pittsburgh experiment were extended to three different cities (San Diego, CA; Huntsville, AL; and Phoenix, AZ) chosen to represent a wide range of irradiance and temperature values. First, this research evaluated the difference in electricity production from a green-moss roof and black roof underneath photovoltaic panels to determine if the green roof's cooler air increases the panel efficiency. Second, separate studies examine 1) average hourly heat flux by month for unobstructed and shaded roof membranes 2) heat flux peak time delay, and 3) air temperature across roof types. Results of this research show green roofs slightly increased (0.8-1.5%) PV panel efficiency in temperatures approximately at or above 25° C (77°F) compared to black roofs. However in cool climates, like Pittsburgh, the roof type under the PV panels had little overall impact on PV performance when considering year round temperatures. Instead, roof decisions should place a stronger emphasis on heat flux impacts. The green roof outperformed both black and white roofs at minimizing total conductive heat flux. These heat flow values were used to develop a new, straight

  14. Cognitive models of choice: comparing decision field theory to the proportional difference model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheibehenne, Benjamin; Rieskamp, Jörg; González-Vallejo, Claudia

    2009-07-01

    People often face preferential decisions under risk. To further our understanding of the cognitive processes underlying these preferential choices, two prominent cognitive models, decision field theory (DFT; Busemeyer & Townsend, 1993) and the proportional difference model (PD; González-Vallejo, 2002), were rigorously tested against each other. In two consecutive experiments, the participants repeatedly had to choose between monetary gambles. The first experiment provided the reference to estimate the models' free parameters. From these estimations, new gamble pairs were generated for the second experiment such that the two models made maximally divergent predictions. In the first experiment, both models explained the data equally well. However, in the second generalization experiment, the participants' choices were much closer to the predictions of DFT. The results indicate that the stochastic process assumed by DFT, in which evidence in favor of or against each option accumulates over time, described people's choice behavior better than the trade-offs between proportional differences assumed by PD. Copyright © 2009 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  15. Fuzzy social choice models explaining the government formation process

    CERN Document Server

    C Casey, Peter; A Goodman, Carly; Pook, Kelly Nelson; N Mordeson, John; J Wierman, Mark; D Clark, Terry

    2014-01-01

    This book explores the extent to which fuzzy set logic can overcome some of the shortcomings of public choice theory, particularly its inability to provide adequate predictive power in empirical studies. Especially in the case of social preferences, public choice theory has failed to produce the set of alternatives from which collective choices are made.  The book presents empirical findings achieved by the authors in their efforts to predict the outcome of government formation processes in European parliamentary and semi-presidential systems.  Using data from the Comparative Manifesto Project (CMP), the authors propose a new approach that reinterprets error in the coding of CMP data as ambiguity in the actual political positions of parties on the policy dimensions being coded. The range of this error establishes parties’ fuzzy preferences. The set of possible outcomes in the process of government formation is then calculated on the basis of both the fuzzy Pareto set and the fuzzy maximal set, and the pre...

  16. A comparative study of machine learning classifiers for modeling travel mode choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hagenauer, J; Helbich, M

    2017-01-01

    The analysis of travel mode choice is an important task in transportation planning and policy making in order to understand and predict travel demands. While advances in machine learning have led to numerous powerful classifiers, their usefulness for modeling travel mode choice remains largely

  17. Joint modeling of constrained path enumeration and path choice behavior: a semi-compensatory approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2010-01-01

    A behavioural and a modelling framework are proposed for representing route choice from a path set that satisfies travellers’ spatiotemporal constraints. Within the proposed framework, travellers’ master sets are constructed by path generation, consideration sets are delimited according to spatio...... constraints are related to travellers’ socio-economic characteristics and that path choice is related to minimizing time and avoiding congestion....

  18. Modeling the Bullying Prevention Program Preferences of Educators: A Discrete Choice Conjoint Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Charles E.; Vaillancourt, Tracy; Rimas, Heather; Deal, Ken; Cunningham, Lesley; Short, Kathy; Chen, Yvonne

    2009-01-01

    We used discrete choice conjoint analysis to model the bullying prevention program preferences of educators. Using themes from computerized decision support lab focus groups (n = 45 educators), we composed 20 three-level bullying prevention program design attributes. Each of 1,176 educators completed 25 choice tasks presenting experimentally…

  19. How the Girl Choosing Technology Became the Symbol of the Non-Traditional Pupil's Choice in Sweden

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hedlin, Maria

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to elucidate how the girl who chooses technology came to be the symbol of the non-traditional pupil's choice in Sweden. In the early 1960s it was hoped that girls would enter workshop training and then commit themselves to engineering mechanics jobs at a time when Sweden was characterised by economic growth which was…

  20. Understanding the formation and influence of attitudes in patients' treatment choices for lower back pain: Testing the benefits of a hybrid choice model approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kløjgaard, Mirja Elisabeth; Hess, S.

    2014-01-01

    A growing number of studies across different fields are making use of a new class of choice models, labelled variably as hybrid model structures or integrated choice and latent variable models, and incorporating the role of attitudes in decision making. To date, this technique has not been used...... in health economics. The present paper looks at the formation of such attitudes and their role in patients treatment choices in the context of low back pain. We use stated choice data collected from a sample of 561 patients with 348 respondents referred to a regional spine centre in Middelfart, Denmark...... in spring/summer 2012. We show how the hybrid model structure is able to make a link between attitudinal questions and treatment choices, and also explains variation of these attitudes across key socio-demographic groups. However, we also show how, in this case, only a small share of the overall...

  1. Incorporating Latent Variables into Discrete Choice Models - A Simultaneous Estimation Approach Using SEM Software

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dirk Temme

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Integrated choice and latent variable (ICLV models represent a promising new class of models which merge classic choice models with the structural equation approach (SEM for latent variables. Despite their conceptual appeal, applications of ICLV models in marketing remain rare. We extend previous ICLV applications by first estimating a multinomial choice model and, second, by estimating hierarchical relations between latent variables. An empirical study on travel mode choice clearly demonstrates the value of ICLV models to enhance the understanding of choice processes. In addition to the usually studied directly observable variables such as travel time, we show how abstract motivations such as power and hedonism as well as attitudes such as a desire for flexibility impact on travel mode choice. Furthermore, we show that it is possible to estimate such a complex ICLV model with the widely available structural equation modeling package Mplus. This finding is likely to encourage more widespread application of this appealing model class in the marketing field.

  2. Behavioural Models for Route Choice of Passengers in Multimodal Public Transport Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Anderson, Marie Karen

    The subject of this thesis is behavioural models for route choice of passengers in multimodal public transport networks. While research in sustainable transport has dedicated much attention toward the determinants of choice between car and sustainable travel options, it has devoted less attention...... and processed in this study. The characteristics of the collected data are analysed and the actual choices of the public transport passengers are revealed in the thesis. The data were map-matched to the GIS network of the area and quality controlled in a multi-step procedure. From the choice set generation...... perspective, this thesis generates attractive routes for the origindestination pair of each traveller. The problem is not trivial when considering the combinatorial iv Behavioural models for route choice of passengers in multimodal public transport networks nature of the problem. The dense network...

  3. Stochastic models of technology diffusion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Horner, S.M.

    1978-01-01

    Simple stochastic models of epidemics have often been employed by economists and sociologists in the study of the diffusion of information or new technology. In the present theoretical inquiry the properties of a family of models related to these epidemic processes are investigated, and use of the results in the study of technical change phenomena is demonstrated. A moving limit to the level of productivity of capital is hypothesized, the exact increment is determined exogenously by basic or applied research carried on outside the industry. It is this level of latent productivity (LPRO) which fills the role of the ''disease'' which ''spreads'' through the industry. In the single advance models, LPRO is assumed to have moved forward at some point in time, after which an individual firm may advance to the limit by virtue of its own research and development or through imitation of the successful efforts of another firm. In the recurrent advance models, LPRO is assumed to increase at either a constant absolute or relative rate. The firms, in the course of their research and imitation efforts, follow behind LPRO. Using the methods of stochastic processes, it is shown that these models are equivalent to ergodic Markov chains. Based on an assumption of constant intensity of R and D effort, it is shown how the single and recurrent advance models reflect on Joseph Schumpeter's hypothesis that more concentrated industries tend to be more technologically advanced than less concentrated. The results corroborate the weakest version of the hypothesis: monopoly prices need not be higher than competitive prices.

  4. A novel concurrent pictorial choice model of mood-induced relapse in hazardous drinkers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardy, Lorna; Hogarth, Lee

    2017-12-01

    This study tested whether a novel concurrent pictorial choice procedure, inspired by animal self-administration models, is sensitive to the motivational effect of negative mood induction on alcohol-seeking in hazardous drinkers. Forty-eight hazardous drinkers (scoring ≥7 on the Alcohol Use Disorders Inventory) recruited from the community completed measures of alcohol dependence, depression, and drinking coping motives. Baseline alcohol-seeking was measured by percent choice to enlarge alcohol- versus food-related thumbnail images in two alternative forced-choice trials. Negative and positive mood was then induced in succession by means of self-referential affective statements and music, and percent alcohol choice was measured after each induction in the same way as baseline. Baseline alcohol choice correlated with alcohol dependence severity, r = .42, p = .003, drinking coping motives (in two questionnaires, r = .33, p = .02 and r = .46, p = .001), and depression symptoms, r = .31, p = .03. Alcohol choice was increased by negative mood over baseline (p mood (p = .54, ηp2 = .008). The negative mood-induced increase in alcohol choice was not related to gender, alcohol dependence, drinking to cope, or depression symptoms (ps ≥ .37). The concurrent pictorial choice measure is a sensitive index of the relative value of alcohol, and provides an accessible experimental model to study negative mood-induced relapse mechanisms in hazardous drinkers. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  5. Modelling Stochastic Route Choice Behaviours with a Closed-Form Mixed Logit Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinjun Lai

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A closed-form mixed Logit approach is proposed to model the stochastic route choice behaviours. It combines both the advantages of Probit and Logit to provide a flexible form in alternatives correlation and a tractable form in expression; besides, the heterogeneity in alternative variance can also be addressed. Paths are compared by pairs where the superiority of the binary Probit can be fully used. The Probit-based aggregation is also used for a nested Logit structure. Case studies on both numerical and empirical examples demonstrate that the new method is valid and practical. This paper thus provides an operational solution to incorporate the normal distribution in route choice with an analytical expression.

  6. Departure time choice: Modelling individual preferences, intention and constraints

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorhauge, Mikkel

    to change their departure time rather than changing their transport mode to avoid congestion (Hendrickson and Planke, 1984; SACTRA, 1994; Kroes et al., 1996; Hess et al., 2007a). Hence, understanding the departure time choice from an individual perspective is important to develop policies aimed to address...... working hours) as the penalty of late arrival is very likely to be higher for individuals with constraints on arrival time. However, flexibility is not only a matter of fixed arrival time. Activities can be mandatory or discretionary (Yamamoto and Kitamura, 1999), performed alone or jointly with family...... departure time. Parallel with the micro-economic theory, the psychology literature has evidenced that individuals’ behaviours are driven by underlying latent constructs, such as attitude, norms and perceptions. In the past decades, more attention has been given to incorporate and understand underlying...

  7. The sensitivity of ecosystem service models to choices of input data and spatial resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenneth J. Bagstad; Erika Cohen; Zachary H. Ancona; Steven. G. McNulty; Ge   Sun

    2018-01-01

    Although ecosystem service (ES) modeling has progressed rapidly in the last 10–15 years, comparative studies on data and model selection effects have become more common only recently. Such studies have drawn mixed conclusions about whether different data and model choices yield divergent results. In this study, we compared the results of different models to address...

  8. The Impact of Near-term Climate Policy Choices on Technology and Emissions Transition Pathways

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eom, Jiyong; Edmonds, James A.; Krey, Volker; Johnson, Nils; Longden, Thomas; Luderer, Gunnar; Riahi, Keywan; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2015-01-01

    This paper explores the implications of delays associated with currently formulated climate policies (compared to optimal policies) for long-term transition pathways to limit climate forcing to 450ppm CO2e on the basis of the AMPERE Work Package 2 model comparison study. The paper highlights the critical importance of the 2030-2050 period for ambitious mitigation strategies. In this period, the most rapid shift to non-greenhouse gas emitting technology occurs. In the delayed response emissions mitigation scenarios, an even faster transition rate in this period is required to compensate for the additional emissions before 2030. Our physical deployment measures indicate that, without CCS, technology deployment rates in the 2030-2050 period would become considerably high. Yet the presence of CCS greatly alleviates the challenges to the transition particularly after the delayed climate policies. The results also highlight the critical role that bioenergy and CO2 capture and storage (BECCS) could play. If this technology is available, transition pathways exceed the emissions budget in the mid-term, removing the excess with BECCS in the long term. Excluding either BE or CCS from the technology portfolio implies that emission reductions need to take place much earlier.

  9. A generic discrete choice model of automobile purchase

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Østli, Vegard; Fridstrøm, Lasse; Johansen, Kjell Werner; Tseng, Yin Yen

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: The introduction of novel fuel and propulsion technologies, such as battery, (plug-in) hybrid and fuel cell electric vehicles, and the need to combat the exhaust emission of local and global pollutants from the passenger car fleet have enhanced the political interest in the vehicle purchase

  10. The selection of a mode of urban transportation: Integrating psychological variables to discrete choice models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cordoba Maquilon, Jorge E; Gonzalez Calderon, Carlos A; Posada Henao, John J

    2011-01-01

    A study using revealed preference surveys and psychological tests was conducted. Key psychological variables of behavior involved in the choice of transportation mode in a population sample of the Metropolitan Area of the Valle de Aburra were detected. The experiment used the random utility theory for discrete choice models and reasoned action in order to assess beliefs. This was used as a tool for analysis of the psychological variables using the sixteen personality factor questionnaire (16PF test). In addition to the revealed preference surveys, two other surveys were carried out: one with socio-economic characteristics and the other with latent indicators. This methodology allows for an integration of discrete choice models and latent variables. The integration makes the model operational and quantifies the unobservable psychological variables. The most relevant result obtained was that anxiety affects the choice of urban transportation mode and shows that physiological alterations, as well as problems in perception and beliefs, can affect the decision-making process.

  11. An integrated framework for modeling freight mode and route choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-10-01

    A number of statewide travel demand models have included freight as a separate component in analysis. Unlike : passenger travel, freight has not gained equivalent attention because of lack of data and difficulties in modeling. In : the current state ...

  12. Hydrogen Analysis with the Sandia ParaChoice Model.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Levinson, Rebecca Sobel [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); West, Todd H. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-07-01

    In the coming decades, light-duty vehicle options and their supporting infrastructure must undergo significant transformations to achieve aggressive national targets for reducing petroleum consumption and lowering greenhouse gas emissions. FCEVs, battery and hybrid electric vehicles, and biofuels are among the promising advanced technology options. This project examines the market penetration of FCEVs in a range of market segments, and in different energy, technology, and policy futures. Analyses are conducted in the context of varying hydrogen production and distribution pathways, as well as public infrastructure availability, fuel (gasoline, ethanol, hydrogen) and electricity costs, vehicle costs and fuel economies to better understand under what conditions, and for which market segments, FCEVs can best compete with battery electric and other alternative fuel vehicles.

  13. Conceptual design of an integrated technology model for carbon policy assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Dimotakes, Paul E. (NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA)

    2011-01-01

    This report describes the conceptual design of a technology choice model for understanding strategies to reduce carbon intensity in the electricity sector. The report considers the major modeling issues affecting technology policy assessment and defines an implementable model construct. Further, the report delineates the basis causal structure of such a model and attempts to establish the technical/algorithmic viability of pursuing model development along with the associated analyses.

  14. A likelihood-based biostatistical model for analyzing consumer movement in simultaneous choice experiments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeilinger, Adam R; Olson, Dawn M; Andow, David A

    2014-08-01

    Consumer feeding preference among resource choices has critical implications for basic ecological and evolutionary processes, and can be highly relevant to applied problems such as ecological risk assessment and invasion biology. Within consumer choice experiments, also known as feeding preference or cafeteria experiments, measures of relative consumption and measures of consumer movement can provide distinct and complementary insights into the strength, causes, and consequences of preference. Despite the distinct value of inferring preference from measures of consumer movement, rigorous and biologically relevant analytical methods are lacking. We describe a simple, likelihood-based, biostatistical model for analyzing the transient dynamics of consumer movement in a paired-choice experiment. With experimental data consisting of repeated discrete measures of consumer location, the model can be used to estimate constant consumer attraction and leaving rates for two food choices, and differences in choice-specific attraction and leaving rates can be tested using model selection. The model enables calculation of transient and equilibrial probabilities of consumer-resource association, which could be incorporated into larger scale movement models. We explore the effect of experimental design on parameter estimation through stochastic simulation and describe methods to check that data meet model assumptions. Using a dataset of modest sample size, we illustrate the use of the model to draw inferences on consumer preference as well as underlying behavioral mechanisms. Finally, we include a user's guide and computer code scripts in R to facilitate use of the model by other researchers.

  15. Not lack of ability but more choice: individual and gender differences in choice of careers in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ming-Te; Eccles, Jacquelynne S; Kenny, Sarah

    2013-05-01

    The pattern of gender differences in math and verbal ability may result in females having a wider choice of careers, in both science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) and non-STEM fields, compared with males. The current study tested whether individuals with high math and high verbal ability in 12th grade were more or less likely to choose STEM occupations than those with high math and moderate verbal ability. The 1,490 subjects participated in two waves of a national longitudinal study; one wave was when the subjects were in 12th grade, and the other was when they were 33 years old. Results revealed that mathematically capable individuals who also had high verbal skills were less likely to pursue STEM careers than were individuals who had high math skills but moderate verbal skills. One notable finding was that the group with high math and high verbal ability included more females than males.

  16. Value-based choice: An integrative, neuroscience-informed model of health goals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berkman, Elliot T

    2018-01-01

    Traditional models of health behaviour focus on the roles of cognitive, personality and social-cognitive constructs (e.g. executive function, grit, self-efficacy), and give less attention to the process by which these constructs interact in the moment that a health-relevant choice is made. Health psychology needs a process-focused account of how various factors are integrated to produce the decisions that determine health behaviour. I present an integrative value-based choice model of health behaviour, which characterises the mechanism by which a variety of factors come together to determine behaviour. This model imports knowledge from research on behavioural economics and neuroscience about how choices are made to the study of health behaviour, and uses that knowledge to generate novel predictions about how to change health behaviour. I describe anomalies in value-based choice that can be exploited for health promotion, and review neuroimaging evidence about the involvement of midline dopamine structures in tracking and integrating value-related information during choice. I highlight how this knowledge can bring insights to health psychology using illustrative case of healthy eating. Value-based choice is a viable model for health behaviour and opens new avenues for mechanism-focused intervention.

  17. Technology Learning Ratios in Global Energy Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varela, M.

    2001-01-01

    The process of introduction of a new technology supposes that while its production and utilisation increases, also its operation improves and its investment costs and production decreases. The accumulation of experience and learning of a new technology increase in parallel with the increase of its market share. This process is represented by the technological learning curves and the energy sector is not detached from this process of substitution of old technologies by new ones. The present paper carries out a brief revision of the main energy models that include the technology dynamics (learning). The energy scenarios, developed by global energy models, assume that the characteristics of the technologies are variables with time. But this trend is incorporated in a exogenous way in these energy models, that is to say, it is only a time function. This practice is applied to the cost indicators of the technology such as the specific investment costs or to the efficiency of the energy technologies. In the last years, the new concept of endogenous technological learning has been integrated within these global energy models. This paper examines the concept of technological learning in global energy models. It also analyses the technological dynamics of the energy system including the endogenous modelling of the process of technological progress. Finally, it makes a comparison of several of the most used global energy models (MARKAL, MESSAGE and ERIS) and, more concretely, about the use these models make of the concept of technological learning. (Author) 17 refs

  18. Beyond Garbage Cans: An AI Model of Organizational Choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masuch, Michael; LaPotin, Perry

    1989-01-01

    Building on a simulation methodology, this study presents a new organizational decision-making model that complements the original garbage can model and overcomes design-related limitations by using artificial intelligence tools. Decision-making in organized structures may become as disorderly as in organized anarchies, but for different reasons.…

  19. Models of Teaching: Indicators Influencing Teachers' Perception of Pedagogical Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nordyke, Alison Michelle

    2011-01-01

    The models of teaching are systematic tools that allow teachers to vary their classroom pedagogical practices to meet the needs of all learners in their classroom. This study was designed to determine key factors that influence teachers' decisions when determining a model of teaching for classroom instruction and to identify how teacher training…

  20. Modeling and Forecasting Large Realized Covariance Matrices and Portfolio Choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Callot, Laurent A.F.; Kock, Anders B.; Medeiros, Marcelo C.

    2017-01-01

    We consider modeling and forecasting large realized covariance matrices by penalized vector autoregressive models. We consider Lasso-type estimators to reduce the dimensionality and provide strong theoretical guarantees on the forecast capability of our procedure. We show that we can forecast

  1. Modelling travel time perception in transport mode choices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Varotto, S.F.; Glerum, A.; Stathopoulos, A.; Bierlaire, M.; Longo, G.

    2015-01-01

    Travel behaviour models typically rely on data afflicted by errors, in perception (e.g., over/under-estimation by traveller) and measurement (e.g., software or researcher imputation error). Such errors are shown to have a relevant impact on model outputs. So far a comprehensive framework to deal

  2. How the twain can meet: Prospect theory and models of heuristics in risky choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pachur, Thorsten; Suter, Renata S; Hertwig, Ralph

    2017-03-01

    Two influential approaches to modeling choice between risky options are algebraic models (which focus on predicting the overt decisions) and models of heuristics (which are also concerned with capturing the underlying cognitive process). Because they rest on fundamentally different assumptions and algorithms, the two approaches are usually treated as antithetical, or even incommensurable. Drawing on cumulative prospect theory (CPT; Tversky & Kahneman, 1992) as the currently most influential instance of a descriptive algebraic model, we demonstrate how the two modeling traditions can be linked. CPT's algebraic functions characterize choices in terms of psychophysical (diminishing sensitivity to probabilities and outcomes) as well as psychological (risk aversion and loss aversion) constructs. Models of heuristics characterize choices as rooted in simple information-processing principles such as lexicographic and limited search. In computer simulations, we estimated CPT's parameters for choices produced by various heuristics. The resulting CPT parameter profiles portray each of the choice-generating heuristics in psychologically meaningful ways-capturing, for instance, differences in how the heuristics process probability information. Furthermore, CPT parameters can reflect a key property of many heuristics, lexicographic search, and track the environment-dependent behavior of heuristics. Finally, we show, both in an empirical and a model recovery study, how CPT parameter profiles can be used to detect the operation of heuristics. We also address the limits of CPT's ability to capture choices produced by heuristics. Our results highlight an untapped potential of CPT as a measurement tool to characterize the information processing underlying risky choice. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. A case of a laptop learning campus: how do technology choices affect perceptions?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer Percival

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Laptop learning programs have been developed to create ubiquitous online learning environments. Given the infancy of many programs, there is little understanding of aspects of the program are perceived to provide value to faculty and students. This paper focuses on the value proposition (with respect to perceived benefits versus capital investment for undergraduate students in a mandatory, campus-wide, comprehensive laptop learning program. Results indicate that the perceived value of the laptop for technical programs such as science, engineering, and information technology, and liberal arts programs such as business and criminology, justice, and policy studies are significantly different. This difference results in a clear need to use different laptop learning models for each type of program and that a single campus-wide model will likely prove unsatisfactory for most students. A need to better communicate the true value of industry-specific software and skills acquisition is also highlighted.

  4. Collation of Scientific Evidence on Consumer Acceptance of New Food Technologies: Three roads to consumer choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fischer, A.R.H.; Trijp, van J.C.M.; Hofenk, D.J.B.; Ronteltap, A.; Tudoran, A.A.

    2012-01-01

    The current report investigates consumer acceptance of new food technologies by reviewing the scientific literature. The review is organised along three routes to consumer acceptance of new technologies: The consumer benefit road: the central road of technology features influencing experienced

  5. Model choice considerations and information integration using analytical hierarchy process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Langenbrunner, James R [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hemez, Francois M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Booker, Jane M [BOOKER SCIENTIFIC; Ross, Timothy J. [UNM

    2010-10-15

    Using the theory of information-gap for decision-making under severe uncertainty, it has been shown that model output compared to experimental data contains irrevocable trade-offs between fidelity-to-data, robustness-to-uncertainty and confidence-in-prediction. We illustrate a strategy for information integration by gathering and aggregating all available data, knowledge, theory, experience, similar applications. Such integration of information becomes important when the physics is difficult to model, when observational data are sparse or difficult to measure, or both. To aggregate the available information, we take an inference perspective. Models are not rejected, nor wasted, but can be integrated into a final result. We show an example of information integration using Saaty's Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), integrating theory, simulation output and experimental data. We used expert elicitation to determine weights for two models and two experimental data sets, by forming pair-wise comparisons between model output and experimental data. In this way we transform epistemic and/or statistical strength from one field of study into another branch of physical application. The price to pay for utilizing all available knowledge is that inferences drawn for the integrated information must be accounted for and the costs can be considerable. Focusing on inferences and inference uncertainty (IU) is one way to understand complex information.

  6. Extended cox regression model: The choice of timefunction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isik, Hatice; Tutkun, Nihal Ata; Karasoy, Durdu

    2017-07-01

    Cox regression model (CRM), which takes into account the effect of censored observations, is one the most applicative and usedmodels in survival analysis to evaluate the effects of covariates. Proportional hazard (PH), requires a constant hazard ratio over time, is the assumptionofCRM. Using extended CRM provides the test of including a time dependent covariate to assess the PH assumption or an alternative model in case of nonproportional hazards. In this study, the different types of real data sets are used to choose the time function and the differences between time functions are analyzed and discussed.

  7. AGRICULTURAL COOPERATION IN RUSSIA: THE PROBLEM OF ORGANIZATION MODEL CHOICE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Nilsson

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available In today's Russia many agricultural co-operatives are established from the top downwards. The national project "Development of Agroindustrial Complex" and other governmental programs initiate the formation of cooperative societies. These cooperatives are organized in accordance with the traditional cooperative model. Many of them do, however, not have any real business activities. The aim of this paper to investigate if traditional cooperatives (following principles such as collective ownership, one member one vote, equal treatment, and solidarity, etc. constitute the best organizational model for cooperatives societies under the present conditions in the Russian agriculture.

  8. Modelling in Medical Technology Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B.C. Michel (Bowine)

    1996-01-01

    textabstractHealth care is a rapidly developing field in which new technologies are introduced continuously. Not all new technologies have the same impact however: most represent only small changes in existing technologies, whereas only a few - like organ transplants - really are revolutionary new

  9. The Choice of a Progressive Bilingual Education Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zelin, Li

    2017-01-01

    Bilingual education has unique and complex features. In the course of language study, with the mother tongue as a foundation, acquiring a second language depends on the features of student's learning and age. Based on the construction of J. Cummins's (1984) dual iceberg theory dual-language model, students' bilingual education is founded on the…

  10. Modelling the energy budget and prey choice of eider ducks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brinkman, A.G.; Ens, B.J.; Kats, R.K.H.

    2003-01-01

    We developed an energy and heat budget model for eider ducks. All relevant processes have been quantified. Food processing, diving costs, prey heating, the costs of crushing mussel shells, heat losses during diving as well as during resting, and heat production as a result of muscle activity are

  11. Cold or hot wash: Technological choices, cultural change, and their impact on clothes-washing energy use in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, Jiang; Iyer, Maithili

    2007-01-01

    Usage pattern of clothes washing (and clothes washers) are strongly related to local cultural practices. Such practices have led to the development of distinctive clothes-washing technologies in the US, Europe, and Japan. In emerging markets such as China, several types of technologies often co-exist. Some use less energy but more water (the impeller type), and some use more energy but less water (the horizontal axis type). The competition between different technologies is thought to lead to better consumer choices. However, it could also lead to changes in clothes-washing habits-from cold to hot wash, and therefore to much higher energy use. This paper examines the standard development process in China to illustrate that adoption of foreign technologies and technical standards, if not carefully calibrated to the local cultural practices, could have unintended consequences for energy use and environment

  12. A hybrid mode choice model to account for the dynamic effect of inertia over time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cherchi, Elisabetta; Börjesson, Maria; Bierlaire, Michel

    The influence of habits, giving rise to inertia effect, in the choice process has been intensely debated in the literature. Typically inertia is accounted for by letting the indirect utility functions of the alternatives of the choice situation at time t depend on the outcome of the choice made...... gathered over a continuous period of time, six weeks, to study both inertia and the influence of habits. Tendency to stick with the same alternative is measured through lagged variables that link the current choice with the previous trip made with the same purpose, mode and time of day. However, the lagged...... effect of the previous trips is not constant but it depends on the individual propensity to undertake habitual trips which is captured by the individual specific latent variable. And the frequency of the trips in the previous week is used as an indicator of the habitual behavior. The model estimation...

  13. Effects of chronic administration of drugs of abuse on impulsive choice (delay discounting) in animal models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Setlow, Barry; Mendez, Ian A; Mitchell, Marci R; Simon, Nicholas W

    2009-09-01

    Drug-addicted individuals show high levels of impulsive choice, characterized by preference for small immediate over larger but delayed rewards. Although the causal relationship between chronic drug use and elevated impulsive choice in humans has been unclear, a small but growing body of literature over the past decade has shown that chronic drug administration in animal models can cause increases in impulsive choice, suggesting that a similar causal relationship may exist in human drug users. This article reviews this literature, with a particular focus on the effects of chronic cocaine administration, which have been most thoroughly characterized. The potential mechanisms of these effects are described in terms of drug-induced neural alterations in ventral striatal and prefrontal cortical brain systems. Some implications of this research for pharmacological treatment of drug-induced increases in impulsive choice are discussed, along with suggestions for future research in this area.

  14. The role of intention as mediator between latent effects and behavior: application of a hybrid choice model to study departure time choices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorhauge, Mikkel; Cherchi, Elisabetta; Walker, Joan L.

    2017-01-01

    of them consider the effect of intention and its role as mediator between those psychological effects and the choice, as implied in the Theory of Planned Behavior. In this paper we contribute to the literature in this field by specifically studying the direct effect of the intention on the actual behavior......, while attitude, social norms, and perceived behavioral control affect the intention to behave in a given way. We apply a hybrid choice model to study the departure time choice. For this, we use data from Danish commuters in the morning rush hours in the Greater Copenhagen area. We find a significant...

  15. Measurement model choice influenced randomized controlled trial results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorter, Rosalie; Fox, Jean-Paul; Apeldoorn, Adri; Twisk, Jos

    2016-11-01

    In randomized controlled trials (RCTs), outcome variables are often patient-reported outcomes measured with questionnaires. Ideally, all available item information is used for score construction, which requires an item response theory (IRT) measurement model. However, in practice, the classical test theory measurement model (sum scores) is mostly used, and differences between response patterns leading to the same sum score are ignored. The enhanced differentiation between scores with IRT enables more precise estimation of individual trajectories over time and group effects. The objective of this study was to show the advantages of using IRT scores instead of sum scores when analyzing RCTs. Two studies are presented, a real-life RCT, and a simulation study. Both IRT and sum scores are used to measure the construct and are subsequently used as outcomes for effect calculation. The bias in RCT results is conditional on the measurement model that was used to construct the scores. A bias in estimated trend of around one standard deviation was found when sum scores were used, where IRT showed negligible bias. Accurate statistical inferences are made from an RCT study when using IRT to estimate construct measurements. The use of sum scores leads to incorrect RCT results. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Towards more variation in text generation : Developing and evaluating variation models for choice of referential form

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Castro Ferreira, Thiago; Krahmer, Emiel; Wubben, Sander

    In this study, we introduce a nondeterministic method for referring expression generation. We describe two models that account for individual variation in the choice of referential form in automatically generated text: a Naive Bayes model and a Recurrent Neural Network. Both are evaluated using the

  17. A discrete-choice model with social interactions : With an application to high school teen behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soetevent, Adriaan R.; Kooreman, Peter

    2007-01-01

    We develop an empirical discrete-choice interaction model with a finite number of agents. We characterize its equilibrium properties-in particular the correspondence between interaction strength, number of agents, and the set of equilibria-and propose to estimate the model by means of simulation

  18. Decision-Tree Models of Categorization Response Times, Choice Proportions, and Typicality Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lafond, Daniel; Lacouture, Yves; Cohen, Andrew L.

    2009-01-01

    The authors present 3 decision-tree models of categorization adapted from T. Trabasso, H. Rollins, and E. Shaughnessy (1971) and use them to provide a quantitative account of categorization response times, choice proportions, and typicality judgments at the individual-participant level. In Experiment 1, the decision-tree models were fit to…

  19. Perceived and Implicit Ranking of Academic Journals: An Optimization Choice Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Frank Tian; Cai, Jane Z.; Pan, Yue

    2012-01-01

    A new system of ranking academic journals is proposed in this study and optimization choice model used to analyze data collected from 346 faculty members in a business discipline. The ranking model uses the aggregation of perceived, implicit sequencing of academic journals by academicians, therefore eliminating several key shortcomings of previous…

  20. A discrete choice model with social interactions; with an application to high school teen behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soetevent, Adriaan R.; Kooreman, Peter

    2004-01-01

    We develop an empirical discrete choice interaction model with a finite number of agents. We characterize its equilibrium properties - in particular the correspondence between the interaction strength, the number of agents, and the set of equilibria - and propose to estimate the model by means of

  1. A discrete choice model with social interactions; with an application to high school teen behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soetevent, A.R.; Kooreman, P.

    2007-01-01

    We develop an empirical discrete-choice interaction model with a finite number of agents. We characterize its equilibrium properties - in particular the correspondence between interaction strength, number of agents, and the set of equilibria - and propose to estimate the model by means of simulation

  2. A discrete choice model with social interactions : an analysis of high school teen behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kooreman, Peter; Soetevent, Adriaan

    2002-01-01

    We develop an empirical discrete choice model that explicitly allows for endogenous social interactions. We analyze the issues of multiple equilibria, statistical coherency, and estimation of the model by means of simulation methods. In an empirical application, we analyze a data set containing

  3. A Decision Model for Steady-State Choice in Concurrent Chains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christensen, Darren R.; Grace, Randolph C.

    2010-01-01

    Grace and McLean (2006) proposed a decision model for acquisition of choice in concurrent chains which assumes that after reinforcement in a terminal link, subjects make a discrimination whether the preceding reinforcer delay was short or long relative to a criterion. Their model was subsequently extended by Christensen and Grace (2008, 2009a,…

  4. A Stochastic Route Choice Model for Car Travellers in the Copenhagen Region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Otto Anker; Frederiksen, Rasmus Dyhr; Daly, A.

    2002-01-01

    The paper presents a large-scale stochastic road traffic assignment model for the Copenhagen Region. The model considers several classes of passenger cars (different trip purposes), vans and trucks, each with its own utility function on which route choices are based. The utility functions include...

  5. Collaboration for Technological Innovation: Choices and Decisions that Make Partnerships Excel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonia Regina Mangiavacchi Tuccori

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to understand the relationship between strategies and collaborative organizational arrangements and the defining of their position within the corporate power structure. The strategic approach employed herein is that of case studies so as to comprehend the peculiarities and the value proposition of the management model of innovation networks at a Brazilian company that operates in the personal hygiene, perfumery and cosmetics segment. To excel within an environment marked by increased global competition, companies have to develop and learn with an innovative work structure and culture. This derives from the rapid shortening of product life cycles which drives the need to innovate at more frequent intervals and to develop technologies, processes, products and/or services more efficiently. Furthermore, given increased product, technologies and processes complexity, attention is drawn to the expansion of costs and risks to innovate to the extent of enhancing uncertainties and pressure on R&D+i (Research, Development and Innovation budgets. Meanwhile, the need for interdisciplinarity by means of cooperation likewise comes to light.

  6. Quantitative Analysis of Complex Multiple-Choice Items in Science Technology and Society: Item Scaling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ángel Vázquez Alonso

    2005-05-01

    Full Text Available The scarce attention to assessment and evaluation in science education research has been especially harmful for Science-Technology-Society (STS education, due to the dialectic, tentative, value-laden, and controversial nature of most STS topics. To overcome the methodological pitfalls of the STS assessment instruments used in the past, an empirically developed instrument (VOSTS, Views on Science-Technology-Society have been suggested. Some methodological proposals, namely the multiple response models and the computing of a global attitudinal index, were suggested to improve the item implementation. The final step of these methodological proposals requires the categorization of STS statements. This paper describes the process of categorization through a scaling procedure ruled by a panel of experts, acting as judges, according to the body of knowledge from history, epistemology, and sociology of science. The statement categorization allows for the sound foundation of STS items, which is useful in educational assessment and science education research, and may also increase teachers’ self-confidence in the development of the STS curriculum for science classrooms.

  7. Sequential sampling model for multiattribute choice alternatives with random attention time and processing order

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adele eDiederich

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available A sequential sampling model for multiattribute binary choice options, called Multiattribute attention switching (MAAS model, assumes a separate sampling process for each attribute. During the deliberation process attention switches from one attribute consideration to the next. The order in which attributes are considered as well for how long each attribute is considered - the attention time - influences the predicted choice probabilities and choice response times. Several probability distributions for the attention time including deterministic, Poisson, binomial, geometric, and uniform with different variances are investigated. Depending on the time and order schedule the model predicts a rich choice probability/choice response time pattern including preference reversals and fast errors. Furthermore, the difference between a finite and infinite decision horizons for the attribute considered last is investigated. For the former case the model predicts a probability $p_0> 0$ of not deciding within the available time. The underlying stochastic process for each attribute is an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process approximated by a discrete birth-death process. All predictions are also true for the widely applied Wiener process.

  8. Freedom of choice in technology strategy? An analysis of technology strategy in the large commercial aircraft industry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Bruijn, E.J.; Steenhuis, H.J.

    2004-01-01

    Many companies experience difficult situations as a result of their selected strategy. Strategic management theories implicitly assume that companies have a free choice in setting their strategy. Hence, when companies experience difficult situations this is because of management inadequacy. It is

  9. An experimental study on cumulative prospect theory learning model of travelers’ dynamic mode choice under uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chao Yang

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we examined travelers’ dynamic mode choice behavior under travel time variability. We found travelers’ inconsistent risk attitudes through a binary mode choice experiment. Although the results deviated from the traditional utility maximization theory and could not be explained by the payoff variability effect, they could be well captured in a cumulative prospect theory (CPT framework. After considering the imperfect memory effect, we found that the prediction ability of the cumulative prospect theory learning (CPTL model could be significantly improved. The experimental results were also compared with the CPTL model and the reinforcement learning (REL model. This study empirically showed the potential of alternative theories to better capture travelers’ day-to-day mode choice behavior under uncertainty. A new definition of willingness to pay (WTP in a CPT framework was provided to explicitly consider travelers’ perceived value increases in travel time.

  10. Fuzzy Multicriteria Model for Selection of Vibration Technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Carmen Carnero

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The benefits of applying the vibration analysis program are well known and have been so for decades. A large number of contributions have been produced discussing new diagnostic, signal treatment, technical parameter analysis, and prognosis techniques. However, to obtain the expected benefits from a vibration analysis program, it is necessary to choose the instrumentation which guarantees the best results. Despite its importance, in the literature, there are no models to assist in taking this decision. This research describes an objective model using Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP to make a choice of the most suitable technology among portable vibration analysers. The aim is to create an easy-to-use model for processing, manufacturing, services, and research organizations, to guarantee adequate decision-making in the choice of vibration analysis technology. The model described recognises that judgements are often based on ambiguous, imprecise, or inadequate information that cannot provide precise values. The model incorporates judgements from several decision-makers who are experts in the field of vibration analysis, maintenance, and electronic devices. The model has been applied to a Health Care Organization.

  11. Discrete choice modeling of environmental security. Research report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carson, K.S.

    1998-10-01

    The presence of overpopulation or unsustainable population growth may place pressure on the food and water supplies of countries in sensitive areas of the world. Severe air or water pollution may place additional pressure on these resources. These pressures may generate both internal and international conflict in these areas as nations struggle to provide for their citizens. Such conflicts may result in United States intervention, either unilaterally, or through the United Nations. Therefore, it is in the interests of the United States to identify potential areas of conflict in order to properly train and allocate forces. The purpose of this research is to forecast the probability of conflict in a nation as a function of it s environmental conditions. Probit, logit and ordered probit models are employed to forecast the probability of a given level of conflict. Data from 95 countries are used to estimate the models. Probability forecasts are generated for these 95 nations. Out-of sample forecasts are generated for an additional 22 nations. These probabilities are then used to rank nations from highest probability of conflict to lowest. The results indicate that the dependence of a nation`s economy on agriculture, the rate of deforestation, and the population density are important variables in forecasting the probability and level of conflict. These results indicate that environmental variables do play a role in generating or exacerbating conflict. It is unclear that the United States military has any direct role in mitigating the environmental conditions that may generate conflict. A more important role for the military is to aid in data gathering to generate better forecasts so that the troops are adequntely prepared when conflicts arises.

  12. Choice and Participation of Career by STEM Professionals with Sensory and Orthopedic Disabilities and the Roles of Assistive Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pacheco, Heather A.

    This is a qualitative study about sources of self-efficacy and roles of assistive technologies (AT) associated with the science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) choice and participation of STEM professionals and graduate students with sensory and orthopedic disabilities. People with disabilities are underrepresented in STEM, which can be traced back along the STEM pipeline to early undergraduate participation in STEM. Little research exists, however, about pathways and factors associated with successful STEM participation for people with disabilities at any point along their trajectories. Eighteen STEM professionals and graduate students with sensory and orthopedic disabilities were interviewed for this study. Sources of self-efficacy were sought from interview transcripts, as were emergent themes associated with the types, uses and roles of AT. Findings suggest that people with sensory and orthopedic disabilities weigh sources of self-efficacy differently from white males without disabilities in STEM and more like other underrepresented minorities in STEM. Social persuasions were most frequently reported and in far more detail than other sources, suggesting that this source may be most impactful in the development of self-efficacy beliefs for this group. Additionally, findings indicate that AT is critical to the successful participation of people with sensory and orthopedic disabilities in STEM at all points along their STEM pathways. Barriers center around issues of access to full engagement in mainstream STEM classrooms and out of school opportunities as well as the impact of ill-informed perceptions about the capabilities of people with disabilities held by parents, teachers and college faculty who can act as gatekeepers along STEM pathways. Gaps in disability specialists' knowledge about STEM-specific assistive technologies, especially at the college level, are also problematic. The prevalence of mainstream public school attendance reported by

  13. Implications of the choice and configuration of hydrologic models on the portrayal of climate change impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendoza, P. A.; Clark, M. P.; Rajagopalan, B.; Mizukami, N.; Gutmann, E. D.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change studies involve several methodological choices that impact the hydrological sensitivities obtained. Among these, hydrologic model structure selection and parameter identification are particularly relevant and usually have a strong subjective component. This subjectivity is not only limited to engineering applications, but also extends to many of our research studies, resulting in problems such as missing processes in our models, inappropriate parameterizations and compensatory effects of model parameters. The goal of this research is to identify the role of model structures and parameter values on the assessment of hydrologic sensitivity to climate change. We conduct our study in three basins located in the Colorado Headwaters Region, using four different hydrologic models (PRMS, VIC, Noah and Noah-MP). We first compare both model performance and climate sensitivities using default parameterizations and parameter values calibrated with the Shuffled Complex Evolution algorithm. Our results demonstrate that calibration doesn't necessarily improve the representation of hydrological processes or decrease inter-model differences in the change of signature measures of hydrologic behavior with respect to a future climate scenario. We found that inter-model differences in hydrologic sensitivities to climate change may be larger than the climate change signal even after models have been calibrated. Results demonstrate that both model choice (after calibration) and parameter selection have important effects in the portrayal of climate change impacts, and work is ongoing to identify more robust modeling strategies that explicitly account for the subjectivity in these choices. Location of the basins of interest Hydrological models used in this study

  14. Random regret-based discrete-choice modelling: an application to healthcare.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Bekker-Grob, Esther W; Chorus, Caspar G

    2013-07-01

    A new modelling approach for analysing data from discrete-choice experiments (DCEs) has been recently developed in transport economics based on the notion of regret minimization-driven choice behaviour. This so-called Random Regret Minimization (RRM) approach forms an alternative to the dominant Random Utility Maximization (RUM) approach. The RRM approach is able to model semi-compensatory choice behaviour and compromise effects, while being as parsimonious and formally tractable as the RUM approach. Our objectives were to introduce the RRM modelling approach to healthcare-related decisions, and to investigate its usefulness in this domain. Using data from DCEs aimed at determining valuations of attributes of osteoporosis drug treatments and human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccinations, we empirically compared RRM models, RUM models and Hybrid RUM-RRM models in terms of goodness of fit, parameter ratios and predicted choice probabilities. In terms of model fit, the RRM model did not outperform the RUM model significantly in the case of the osteoporosis DCE data (p = 0.21), whereas in the case of the HPV DCE data, the Hybrid RUM-RRM model outperformed the RUM model (p implied by the two models can vary substantially. Differences in model fit between RUM, RRM and Hybrid RUM-RRM were found to be small. Although our study did not show significant differences in parameter ratios, the RRM and Hybrid RUM-RRM models did feature considerable differences in terms of the trade-offs implied by these ratios. In combination, our results suggest that RRM and Hybrid RUM-RRM modelling approach hold the potential of offering new and policy-relevant insights for health researchers and policy makers.

  15. Metro passengers’ route choice model and its application considering perceived transfer threshold

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Fanglei; Zhang, Yongsheng; Liu, Shasha

    2017-01-01

    With the rapid development of the Metro network in China, the greatly increased route alternatives make passengers’ route choice behavior and passenger flow assignment more complicated, which presents challenges to the operation management. In this paper, a path sized logit model is adopted to analyze passengers’ route choice preferences considering such parameters as in-vehicle time, number of transfers, and transfer time. Moreover, the “perceived transfer threshold” is defined and included in the utility function to reflect the penalty difference caused by transfer time on passengers’ perceived utility under various numbers of transfers. Next, based on the revealed preference data collected in the Guangzhou Metro, the proposed model is calibrated. The appropriate perceived transfer threshold value and the route choice preferences are analyzed. Finally, the model is applied to a personalized route planning case to demonstrate the engineering practicability of route choice behavior analysis. The results show that the introduction of the perceived transfer threshold is helpful to improve the model’s explanatory abilities. In addition, personalized route planning based on route choice preferences can meet passengers’ diversified travel demands. PMID:28957376

  16. Advanced Manufacturing Technologies (AMT): Composites Integrated Modeling

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Composites Integrated Modeling (CIM) Element developed low cost, lightweight, and efficient composite structures, materials and manufacturing technologies with...

  17. Collation of Scientific Evidence on Consumer Acceptance of New Food Technologies: Three roads to consumer choice

    OpenAIRE

    Fischer, A.R.H.; Trijp, van, J.C.M.; Hofenk, D.J.B.; Ronteltap, A.; Tudoran, A.A.

    2012-01-01

    The current report investigates consumer acceptance of new food technologies by reviewing the scientific literature.The review is organised along three routes to consumer acceptance of new technologies: The consumer benefit road: the central road of technology features influencing experienced product attributes; the technology apprehension road: a socio-political road where unfamiliarity and dread may lead to negative technologyattitudes, which may create categorical rejection of any product ...

  18. Technology and Online Education: Models for Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Catherine W.; Sonnenberg, Christian

    2014-01-01

    This paper contends that technology changes advance online education. A number of mobile computing and transformative technologies will be examined and incorporated into a descriptive study. The object of the study will be to design innovative mobile awareness models seeking to understand technology changes for mobile devices and how they can be…

  19. The endogenous grid method for discrete-continuous dynamic choice models with (or without) taste shocks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iskhakov, Fedor; Jørgensen, Thomas H.; Rust, John

    2017-01-01

    We present a fast and accurate computational method for solving and estimating a class of dynamic programming models with discrete and continuous choice variables. The solution method we develop for structural estimation extends the endogenous grid-point method (EGM) to discrete-continuous (DC...... taste shocks that are typically interpreted as “unobserved state variables” in structural econometric applications, or serve as “random noise” to smooth out kinks in the value functions in numerical applications. We present Monte Carlo experiments that demonstrate the reliability and efficiency......) problems. Discrete choices can lead to kinks in the value functions and discontinuities in the optimal policy rules, greatly complicating the solution of the model. We show how these problems are ameliorated in the presence of additive choice-specific independent and identically distributed extreme value...

  20. Industrial diffusion models and technological standardization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carrillo-Hermosilla, J.

    2007-01-01

    Conventional models of technology diffusion have typically focused on the question of the rate of diffusion at which one new technology is fully adopted. The model described here provides a broader approach, from the perspective the extension of the diffusion of multiple technologies, and the related phenomenon of standardization. Moreover, most conventional research has characterized the diffusion process in terms of technology attributes or adopting firms attributes. Alternatively, we propose here a wide-ranging and consistent taxonomy of the relationships between the circumstances of an industry and the attributes of the technology standardization processes taking place within it. (Author) 100 refs

  1. Passenger route choice model and algorithm in the urban rail transit network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ke Qiao

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: There are several routes between some OD pairs in the urban rail transit network. In order to carry out the fare allocating, operators use some models to estimate which route the passengers choose, but there are some errors between estimation results and actual choices results. The aim of this study is analyzing the passenger route choice behavior in detail based on passenger classification and improving the models to make the results more in line with the actual situations.Design/methodology/approach: In this paper, the passengers were divided into familiar type and strange type. Firstly passenger integrated travel impedance functions of two types were established respectively, after that a multi-route distribution model was used to get the initial route assignment results, then a ratio correction method was used to correct the results taking into account the transfer times, crowd and demand for seats. Finally, a case study for the Beijing local rail transit network is shown.Findings: The numerical example showed that it is logical to take passenger classification and the model and algorithm is effective, the final route choice results are more comprehensive and realistic.Originality/value: The paper offers an improved model and algorithm based on passenger classification for passenger route choice in the urban rail transit network.

  2. A discrete-continuous choice model of climate change impacts on energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morrison, W.N.; Mendelsohn, R.

    1998-01-01

    This paper estimates a discrete-continuous fuel choice model in order to explore climate impacts on the energy sector. The model is estimated on a national data set of firms and households. The results reveal that actors switch from oil in cold climates to electricity and natural gas in warm climates and that fuel-specific expenditures follow a U-shaped relationship with respect to temperature. The model implies that warming will increase American energy expenditures, reflecting a sizable welfare damage

  3. Impact of Increased Technology Use on the Free-Time Choices of Fifth and Seventh Grade Students in a Southern School District

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Cynthia Susan

    2009-01-01

    The study sought to determine if increased technology use affects the free-time choices of students. While technology options have grown exponentially, time remains a fixed commodity. Therefore, it is suggested that students who increasingly use technology must draw time from more traditional childhood activities. Students' free-time activities…

  4. The sensitivity of ecosystem service models to choices of input data and spatial resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagstad, Kenneth J.; Cohen, Erika; Ancona, Zachary H.; McNulty, Steven; Sun, Ge

    2018-01-01

    Although ecosystem service (ES) modeling has progressed rapidly in the last 10–15 years, comparative studies on data and model selection effects have become more common only recently. Such studies have drawn mixed conclusions about whether different data and model choices yield divergent results. In this study, we compared the results of different models to address these questions at national, provincial, and subwatershed scales in Rwanda. We compared results for carbon, water, and sediment as modeled using InVEST and WaSSI using (1) land cover data at 30 and 300 m resolution and (2) three different input land cover datasets. WaSSI and simpler InVEST models (carbon storage and annual water yield) were relatively insensitive to the choice of spatial resolution, but more complex InVEST models (seasonal water yield and sediment regulation) produced large differences when applied at differing resolution. Six out of nine ES metrics (InVEST annual and seasonal water yield and WaSSI) gave similar predictions for at least two different input land cover datasets. Despite differences in mean values when using different data sources and resolution, we found significant and highly correlated results when using Spearman's rank correlation, indicating consistent spatial patterns of high and low values. Our results confirm and extend conclusions of past studies, showing that in certain cases (e.g., simpler models and national-scale analyses), results can be robust to data and modeling choices. For more complex models, those with different output metrics, and subnational to site-based analyses in heterogeneous environments, data and model choices may strongly influence study findings.

  5. Stochastic user equilibrium with equilibrated choice sets: Part I - Model formulations under alternative distributions and restrictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Watling, David Paul; Rasmussen, Thomas Kjær; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2015-01-01

    the advantages of the two principles, namely the definition of unused routes in DUE and of mis-perception in SUE, such that the resulting choice sets of used routes are equilibrated. Two model families are formulated to address this issue: the first is a general version of SUE permitting bounded and discrete...... error distributions; the second is a Restricted SUE model with an additional constraint that must be satisfied for unused paths. The overall advantage of these model families consists in their ability to combine the unused routes with the use of random utility models for used routes, without the need...... to pre-specify the choice set. We present model specifications within these families, show illustrative examples, evaluate their relative merits, and identify key directions for further research....

  6. Multiple data sets and modelling choices in a comparative LCA of disposable beverage cups

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Harst, van der E.J.M.; Potting, J.; Kroeze, C.

    2014-01-01

    This study used multiple data sets and modelling choices in an environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) to compare typical disposable beverage cups made from polystyrene (PS), polylactic acid (PLA; bioplastic) and paper lined with bioplastic (biopaper). Incineration and recycling were considered as

  7. Generalized behavioral framework for choice models of social influence: Behavioral and data concerns in travel behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Maness; C. Cirillo; E.R. Dugundji (Elenna)

    2015-01-01

    htmlabstractOver the past two decades, transportation has begun a shift from an individual focus to a social focus. Accordingly, discrete choice models have begun to integrate social context into its framework. Social influence, the process of having one’s behavior be affected by others, has been

  8. Rational inattention to discrete choices: a new foundation for the multinomial logit model

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Matějka, Filip; McKay, A.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 105, č. 1 (2015), s. 272-298 ISSN 0002-8282 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GPP402/11/P236 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : discrete choice behavior * rational inattention * multinomial logit model Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 3.833, year: 2015

  9. Rational inattention to discrete choices: a new foundation for the multinomial logit model

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Matějka, Filip; McKay, A.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 105, č. 1 (2015), s. 272-298 ISSN 0002-8282 Institutional support: PRVOUK-P23 Keywords : discrete choice behavior * rational inattention * multinomial logit model Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 3.833, year: 2015

  10. Worldwide Diversity in Funded Pension Plans : Four Role Models on Choice and Participation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Garcia Huitron, Manuel; Ponds, Eduard

    2015-01-01

    This paper provides an in-depth comparison of funded pension savings plans around the world. The large variety in plan designs is a reflection of historical, cultural and institutional diversity. We postulate a new classification of four role models of funded pension plans, primarily based on choice

  11. An aggregate method to calibrate the reference point of cumulative prospect theory-based route choice model for urban transit network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yufeng; Long, Man; Luo, Sida; Bao, Yu; Shen, Hanxia

    2015-12-01

    Transit route choice model is the key technology of public transit systems planning and management. Traditional route choice models are mostly based on expected utility theory which has an evident shortcoming that it cannot accurately portray travelers' subjective route choice behavior for their risk preferences are not taken into consideration. Cumulative prospect theory (CPT), a brand new theory, can be used to describe travelers' decision-making process under the condition of uncertainty of transit supply and risk preferences of multi-type travelers. The method to calibrate the reference point, a key parameter to CPT-based transit route choice model, determines the precision of the model to a great extent. In this paper, a new method is put forward to obtain the value of reference point which combines theoretical calculation and field investigation results. Comparing the proposed method with traditional method, it shows that the new method can promote the quality of CPT-based model by improving the accuracy in simulating travelers' route choice behaviors based on transit trip investigation from Nanjing City, China. The proposed method is of great significance to logical transit planning and management, and to some extent makes up the defect that obtaining the reference point is solely based on qualitative analysis.

  12. A Model Technology Educator: Thomas A. Edison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pretzer, William S.; Rogers, George E.; Bush, Jeffery

    2007-01-01

    Reflecting back over a century ago to the small village of Menlo Park, New Jersey provides insight into a remarkable visionary and an exceptional role model for today's problem-solving and design-focused technology educator: Thomas A. Edison, inventor, innovator, and model technology educator. Since Edison could not simply apply existing knowledge…

  13. The nuclear wastes the democracy face to technological choices; Les dechets nucleaires la democratie face aux choix technologiques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laet, J.P. de

    1996-01-01

    In every country concerned in radioactive waste management, the technicians thought they had possible solutions but they collided with a lack of understanding and came into conflict with public. What was demanded was a true policy control of scientific and technological choices as regard wastes. The decision to build a deep storage cannot be taken without a new law: the parliament will lean on a final report in 2006, which date a decision will be taken. Until this date, studies and research program are reviewed every year. (N.C.).

  14. Multimodal route choice models of public transport passengers in the Greater Copenhagen Area

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Anderson, Marie Karen; Nielsen, Otto Anker; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2014-01-01

    Understanding route choice behavior is crucial to explain travelers’ preferences and to predict traffic flows under different scenarios. A growing body of literature has concentrated on public transport users without, however, concentrating on multimodal public transport networks because......,641 public transport users in the Greater Copenhagen Area.A two-stage approach consisting of choice set generation and route choice model estimation allowed uncovering the preferences of the users of this multimodal large-scale public transport network. The results illustrate the rates of substitution...... not only of the in-vehicle times for different public transport modes, but also of the other time components (e.g., access, walking, waiting, transfer) composing the door-to-door experience of using a multimodal public transport network, differentiating by trip length and purpose, and accounting...

  15. Specialty choice preference of medical students according to personality traits by Five-Factor Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oh Young Kwon

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between personality traits, using the Five-Factor Model, and characteristics and motivational factors affecting specialty choice in Korean medical students. Methods: A questionnaire survey of Year 4 medical students (n=110 in July 2015 was administered. We evaluated the personality traits of Extraversion, Agreeableness, Conscientiousness, Neuroticism, and Openness by using the Korean version of Big Five Inventory. Questions about general characteristics, medical specialties most preferred as a career, motivational factors in determining specialty choice were included. Data between five personality traits and general characteristics and motivational factors affecting specialty choice were analyzed using Student t-test, Mann-Whitney test and analysis of variance. Results: Of the 110 eligible medical students, 105 (95.4% response rate completed the questionnaire. More Agreeableness students preferred clinical medicine to basic medicine (p=0.010 and more Openness students preferred medical departments to others (p=0.031. Personal interest was the significant motivational factors in more Openness students (p=0.003 and Conscientiousness students (p=0.003. Conclusion: Medical students with more Agreeableness were more likely to prefer clinical medicine and those with more Openness preferred medical departments. Personal interest was a significant influential factor determining specialty choice in more Openness and Conscientiousness students. These findings may be helpful to medical educators or career counselors in the specialty choice process.

  16. Specialty choice preference of medical students according to personality traits by Five-Factor Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwon, Oh Young; Park, So Youn

    2016-03-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between personality traits, using the Five-Factor Model, and characteristics and motivational factors affecting specialty choice in Korean medical students. A questionnaire survey of Year 4 medical students (n=110) in July 2015 was administered. We evaluated the personality traits of Extraversion, Agreeableness, Conscientiousness, Neuroticism, and Openness by using the Korean version of Big Five Inventory. Questions about general characteristics, medical specialties most preferred as a career, motivational factors in determining specialty choice were included. Data between five personality traits and general characteristics and motivational factors affecting specialty choice were analyzed using Student t-test, Mann-Whitney test and analysis of variance. Of the 110 eligible medical students, 105 (95.4% response rate) completed the questionnaire. More Agreeableness students preferred clinical medicine to basic medicine (p=0.010) and more Openness students preferred medical departments to others (p=0.031). Personal interest was the significant motivational factors in more Openness students (p=0.003) and Conscientiousness students (p=0.003). Medical students with more Agreeableness were more likely to prefer clinical medicine and those with more Openness preferred medical departments. Personal interest was a significant influential factor determining specialty choice in more Openness and Conscientiousness students. These findings may be helpful to medical educators or career counselors in the specialty choice process.

  17. Belief in the "free choice" model of homosexuality: a correlate of homophobia in registered nurses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blackwell, Christopher W

    2007-01-01

    A great amount of social science research has supported the positive correlation between heterosexuals' belief in the free choice model of homosexuality and homophobia. Heterosexuals who believe gay, lesbian, bisexual, and transgender (GLBT) persons consciously choose their sexual orientation and practice a lifestyle conducive to that choice are much more likely to possess discriminatory, homophobic, homonegative, and heterosexist beliefs. In addition, these individuals are less likely to support gay rights initiatives such as nondiscrimination policies or same-sex partner benefits in the workplace or hate crime enhancement legislation inclusive of GLBT persons. Although researchers have demonstrated this phenomenon in the general population, none have specifically assessed it in the nursing workforce. The purpose of this study was to examine registered nurses' overall levels of homophobia and attitudes toward a workplace policy protective of gays and lesbians. These variables were then correlated with belief in the free choice model of homosexuality. Results indicated that belief in the free choice model of homosexuality was the strongest predictor of homophobia in nurses. Implications for nursing leadership and management, nursing education, and future research are discussed.

  18. A Joint Route Choice Model for Electric and Conventional Car Users

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Anders Fjendbo; Rasmussen, Thomas Kjær; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    Introduction Worldwide, governments have committed to reducing air pollution and carbon emissions. With a higher share of renewable sources in the electricity production, battery electric cars (EVs) could play a significant role in maintaining these commitments. Growing literature shows...... was received. The GPS traces were matched to the very detailed NAVTEQ street network (NAVTEQ 2010). The high level of detail of the network is crucial, as EV users might use smaller roads with lower speeds in order to save energy due to current technological restrictions on driving distances. Following...... effects, such as effects on the electricity network and the transport network. The objective of this study is to use revealed preferences (RP) data to investigate differences in route choice behaviour between CV and EV users. To our knowledge, this is the first time that a state-of-the-art route choice...

  19. A Structural Equation Model for Analysis of Factors Associated with the Choice of Engineering Degrees in a Technical University

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Hervás

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Many different factors are taken into account by students when choosing a degree and university. Some of these are general considerations, such as the quality of the degree course (ratio of available places/places in first choice, cut-off mark, etc., while others are subjective factors (e.g., friends doing the same course. This paper presents a partial multivariate model that considers the weight of the different variables linked to this decision, as identified in the bibliography. We analyzed four samples of first-year students (total n=1790 from different engineering degree courses at the Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV in the 2010-2011 and 2011-2012 academic years. All the students involved in the study had chosen this university and their courses as their first option. The overall effect shows that the structural model adjusts reasonably well to the different engineering courses analyzed. Similarly, the individual models for each engineering degree manage to identify the different effects involved. In the case of the engineering degree based on new technologies (ICT, the statistical effects are much greater and more statistically significant than in the other three branches of engineering considered. Social and individual factors were seen to have more impact on the choice of ICT degrees at the UPV.

  20. How urban environment affects travel behavior? Integrated Choice and Latent Variable Model for Travel Schedules

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    La Paix, Lissy; Bierlaire, Michel; Cherchi, Elisabetta

    2013-01-01

    The relationship between urban environment and travel behaviour is not a new problem. Neighbourhood characteristics may affect mobility of dwellers in different ways, such as frequency of trips, mode used, structure of the tours, and so on. At the same time, qualitative issues related to the indi......The relationship between urban environment and travel behaviour is not a new problem. Neighbourhood characteristics may affect mobility of dwellers in different ways, such as frequency of trips, mode used, structure of the tours, and so on. At the same time, qualitative issues related...... to the individual attitude towards specific behaviour have recently become important in transport modelling contributing to a better understanding of travel demand. Following this research line, in this paper we study the effect of neighbourhood characteristics in the choice of the type of tours performed, but we...... assume that neighbourhood characteristics can also affect the individual propensity to travel and hence the choice of the tours throughout the propensity to travel. Since the propensity to travel is not observed, we employ hybrid choice models to estimate jointly the discrete choice of tours...

  1. Model choice and sample size in item response theory analysis of aphasia tests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hula, William D; Fergadiotis, Gerasimos; Martin, Nadine

    2012-05-01

    The purpose of this study was to identify the most appropriate item response theory (IRT) measurement model for aphasia tests requiring 2-choice responses and to determine whether small samples are adequate for estimating such models. Pyramids and Palm Trees (Howard & Patterson, 1992) test data that had been collected from individuals with aphasia were analyzed, and the resulting item and person estimates were used to develop simulated test data for 3 sample size conditions. The simulated data were analyzed using a standard 1-parameter logistic (1-PL) model and 3 models that accounted for the influence of guessing: augmented 1-PL and 2-PL models and a 3-PL model. The model estimates obtained from the simulated data were compared to their known true values. With small and medium sample sizes, an augmented 1-PL model was the most accurate at recovering the known item and person parameters; however, no model performed well at any sample size. Follow-up simulations confirmed that the large influence of guessing and the extreme easiness of the items contributed substantially to the poor estimation of item difficulty and person ability. Incorporating the assumption of guessing into IRT models improves parameter estimation accuracy, even for small samples. However, caution should be exercised in interpreting scores obtained from easy 2-choice tests, regardless of whether IRT modeling or percentage correct scoring is used.

  2. Examining Engineering & Technology Students' Acceptance of Network Virtualization Technology Using the Technology Acceptance Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousif, Wael K.

    2010-01-01

    This causal and correlational study was designed to extend the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) and to test its applicability to Valencia Community College (VCC) Engineering and Technology students as the target user group when investigating the factors influencing their decision to adopt and to utilize VMware as the target technology. In…

  3. Sensorimotor learning biases choice behavior: a learning neural field model for decision making.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Klaes

    Full Text Available According to a prominent view of sensorimotor processing in primates, selection and specification of possible actions are not sequential operations. Rather, a decision for an action emerges from competition between different movement plans, which are specified and selected in parallel. For action choices which are based on ambiguous sensory input, the frontoparietal sensorimotor areas are considered part of the common underlying neural substrate for selection and specification of action. These areas have been shown capable of encoding alternative spatial motor goals in parallel during movement planning, and show signatures of competitive value-based selection among these goals. Since the same network is also involved in learning sensorimotor associations, competitive action selection (decision making should not only be driven by the sensory evidence and expected reward in favor of either action, but also by the subject's learning history of different sensorimotor associations. Previous computational models of competitive neural decision making used predefined associations between sensory input and corresponding motor output. Such hard-wiring does not allow modeling of how decisions are influenced by sensorimotor learning or by changing reward contingencies. We present a dynamic neural field model which learns arbitrary sensorimotor associations with a reward-driven Hebbian learning algorithm. We show that the model accurately simulates the dynamics of action selection with different reward contingencies, as observed in monkey cortical recordings, and that it correctly predicted the pattern of choice errors in a control experiment. With our adaptive model we demonstrate how network plasticity, which is required for association learning and adaptation to new reward contingencies, can influence choice behavior. The field model provides an integrated and dynamic account for the operations of sensorimotor integration, working memory and action

  4. Impact of competitive electricity market on renewable generation technology choice and policies in the United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sarkar, Ashok

    1999-01-01

    Market objectives based on private value judgments will conflict with social policy objectives toward environmental quality in an emerging restructured electricity industry. This might affect the choice of renewables in the future generation mix. The US electricity industry's long-term capacity planning and operations is simulated for alternative market paradigms to study this impact. The analysis indicates that the share of renewable energy generation sources would decrease and emissions would increase considerably in a more competitive industry, with greater impact occurring in a monopoly market. Alternative environmental policy options can overcome market failures and help achieve appropriate levels of renewable generation. An evaluation of these policies indicate their varying cost-effectiveness, with higher levels of intervention necessary if market power exists. (Author)

  5. Influence of non-technical policies on choices of waste solidification technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trubatch, S.L.

    1987-01-01

    This paper describes and discusses non-technical policy considerations which may improperly influence decisions on the solidification of low-level radioactive wastes (''LLW''). These policy considerations are contained principally in several State and Federal statutes which regulate various aspects of LLW disposal. One policy consideration in particular, the unqualified bias in favor of volume reduction, is shown to present a substantial potential for leading to technically suboptimal decisions on the appropriate processes for solidifying LLW. To avoid the unintended skewing of technical decisions by non-technical policy considerations, certain current policies may need to be revised to ensure that the choices of waste treatment, including decisions on solidification, are based primarily on reasonable assurance of adequate protection of public health and safety. This goal may be realized in part by basing any disposal fee structure on more than just LLW volume to include consideration of the waste's activity and its difficulty of confinement

  6. Variation in LCA results for disposable polystyrene beverage cups due to multiple data sets and modelling choices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Harst, van der E.J.M.; Potting, J.

    2014-01-01

    Life Cycle Assessments (LCAs) of the same products often result in different, sometimes even contradictory outcomes. Reasons for these differences include using different data sets and deviating modelling choices. This paper purposely used different data sets and modelling choices to identify how

  7. Modeling Mode Choice Behavior Incorporating Household and Individual Sociodemographics and Travel Attributes Based on Rough Sets Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Long Cheng

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Most traditional mode choice models are based on the principle of random utility maximization derived from econometric theory. Alternatively, mode choice modeling can be regarded as a pattern recognition problem reflected from the explanatory variables of determining the choices between alternatives. The paper applies the knowledge discovery technique of rough sets theory to model travel mode choices incorporating household and individual sociodemographics and travel information, and to identify the significance of each attribute. The study uses the detailed travel diary survey data of Changxing county which contains information on both household and individual travel behaviors for model estimation and evaluation. The knowledge is presented in the form of easily understood IF-THEN statements or rules which reveal how each attribute influences mode choice behavior. These rules are then used to predict travel mode choices from information held about previously unseen individuals and the classification performance is assessed. The rough sets model shows high robustness and good predictive ability. The most significant condition attributes identified to determine travel mode choices are gender, distance, household annual income, and occupation. Comparative evaluation with the MNL model also proves that the rough sets model gives superior prediction accuracy and coverage on travel mode choice modeling.

  8. Heat savings and heat generation technologies: Modelling of residential investment behaviour with local health costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zvingilaite, Erika; Klinge Jacobsen, Henrik

    2015-01-01

    The trade-off between investing in energy savings and investing in individual heating technologies with high investment and low variable costs in single family houses is modelled for a number of building and consumer categories in Denmark. For each group the private economic cost of providing heating comfort is minimised. The private solution may deviate from the socio-economical optimal solution and we suggest changes to policy to incentivise the individuals to make choices more in line with the socio-economic optimal mix of energy savings and technologies. The households can combine their primary heating source with secondary heating e.g. a woodstove. This choice results in increased indoor air pollution with fine particles causing health effects. We integrate health cost due to use of woodstoves into household optimisation of heating expenditures. The results show that due to a combination of low costs of primary fuel and low environmental performance of woodstoves today, included health costs lead to decreased use of secondary heating. Overall the interdependence of heat generation technology- and heat saving-choice is significant. The total optimal level of heat savings for private consumers decrease by 66% when all have the option to shift to the technology with lowest variable costs. - Highlights: • Heat saving investment and heat technology choice are interdependent. • Health damage costs should be included in private heating choice optimisation. • Flexibility in heating technology choice reduce the optimal level of saving investments. • Models of private and socioeconomic optimal heating produce different technology mix. • Rebound effects are moderate but varies greatly among consumer categories

  9. Making a technological choice for disaster management and poverty alleviation in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srivastava, Sanjay K

    2009-03-01

    The right mix of policy, institutional arrangements and use of technology provides the framework for a country's approach to disaster mitigation. Worldwide, there has been a shift away from a strictly 'top-down' approach relying on government alone, to a combination of 'top-down' and 'bottom-up' approaches. The aim is to enhance the indigenous coping mechanisms of vulnerable communities; draw on their cooperative spirit and energy; and empower them through appropriate information and contextual knowledge to mitigate natural disasters. In light of this, the paper examines India's use of space technology in its disaster management efforts. Poverty alleviation and disaster management are almost inseparable in many parts of the country, as vulnerability to natural disasters is closely aligned with poverty. Addressing these issues together requires integrated knowledge systems. The paper examines how knowledge inputs from space technology have strengthened the national resolve to combat natural disasters in conjunction with alleviating rural poverty.

  10. BUSINESS MODELS FOR INCREASING TECHNOLOGICAL TRANSFER EFFECTIVENESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simina FULGA

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The present paper is devoted to analyze the appropriate recommendations to increase the effectiveness of technology transfer organizations (centers from ReNITT, by using the specific instruments of Business Model Canvas, associated to the technological transfer value chain for the value added services addressed to their clients and according to a continuously improved competitive strategy over competition analysis.

  11. Global Health Innovation Technology Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kimberly Harding

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Chronic technology and business process disparities between High Income, Low Middle Income and Low Income (HIC, LMIC, LIC research collaborators directly prevent the growth of sustainable Global Health innovation for infectious and rare diseases. There is a need for an Open Source-Open Science Architecture Framework to bridge this divide. We are proposing such a framework for consideration by the Global Health community, by utilizing a hybrid approach of integrating agnostic Open Source technology and healthcare interoperability standards and Total Quality Management principles. We will validate this architecture framework through our programme called Project Orchid. Project Orchid is a conceptual Clinical Intelligence Exchange and Virtual Innovation platform utilizing this approach to support clinical innovation efforts for multi-national collaboration that can be locally sustainable for LIC and LMIC research cohorts. The goal is to enable LIC and LMIC research organizations to accelerate their clinical trial process maturity in the field of drug discovery, population health innovation initiatives and public domain knowledge networks. When sponsored, this concept will be tested by 12 confirmed clinical research and public health organizations in six countries. The potential impact of this platform is reduced drug discovery and public health innovation lag time and improved clinical trial interventions, due to reliable clinical intelligence and bio-surveillance across all phases of the clinical innovation process.

  12. Global Health Innovation Technology Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kimberly Harding

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Chronic technology and business process disparities between High Income, Low Middle Income and Low Income (HIC, LMIC, LIC research collaborators directly prevent the growth of sustainable Global Health innova‐ tion for infectious and rare diseases. There is a need for an Open Source-Open Science Architecture Framework to bridge this divide. We are proposing such a framework for consideration by the Global Health community, by utiliz‐ ing a hybrid approach of integrating agnostic Open Source technology and healthcare interoperability standards and Total Quality Management principles. We will validate this architecture framework through our programme called Project Orchid. Project Orchid is a conceptual Clinical Intelligence Exchange and Virtual Innovation platform utilizing this approach to support clinical innovation efforts for multi-national collaboration that can be locally sustainable for LIC and LMIC research cohorts. The goal is to enable LIC and LMIC research organizations to acceler‐ ate their clinical trial process maturity in the field of drug discovery, population health innovation initiatives and public domain knowledge networks. When sponsored, this concept will be tested by 12 confirmed clinical research and public health organizations in six countries. The potential impact of this platform is reduced drug discovery and public health innovation lag time and improved clinical trial interventions, due to reliable clinical intelligence and bio-surveillance across all phases of the clinical innovation process.

  13. Business Model Discovery by Technology Entrepreneurs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven Muegge

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Value creation and value capture are central to technology entrepreneurship. The ways in which a particular firm creates and captures value are the foundation of that firm's business model, which is an explanation of how the business delivers value to a set of customers at attractive profits. Despite the deep conceptual link between business models and technology entrepreneurship, little is known about the processes by which technology entrepreneurs produce successful business models. This article makes three contributions to partially address this knowledge gap. First, it argues that business model discovery by technology entrepreneurs can be, and often should be, disciplined by both intention and structure. Second, it provides a tool for disciplined business model discovery that includes an actionable process and a worksheet for describing a business model in a form that is both concise and explicit. Third, it shares preliminary results and lessons learned from six technology entrepreneurs applying a disciplined process to strengthen or reinvent the business models of their own nascent technology businesses.

  14. Cost-effective choices of marine fuels in a carbon-constrained world: results from a global energy model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taljegard, Maria; Brynolf, Selma; Grahn, Maria; Andersson, Karin; Johnson, Hannes

    2014-11-04

    The regionalized Global Energy Transition model has been modified to include a more detailed shipping sector in order to assess what marine fuels and propulsion technologies might be cost-effective by 2050 when achieving an atmospheric CO2 concentration of 400 or 500 ppm by the year 2100. The robustness of the results was examined in a Monte Carlo analysis, varying uncertain parameters and technology options, including the amount of primary energy resources, the availability of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies, and costs of different technologies and fuels. The four main findings are (i) it is cost-effective to start the phase out of fuel oil from the shipping sector in the next decade; (ii) natural gas-based fuels (liquefied natural gas and methanol) are the most probable substitutes during the study period; (iii) availability of CCS, the CO2 target, the liquefied natural gas tank cost and potential oil resources affect marine fuel choices significantly; and (iv) biofuels rarely play a major role in the shipping sector, due to limited supply and competition for bioenergy from other energy sectors.

  15. Agribusiness Standards: A Comparison of the Choices of Utah Agriscience and Technology Teachers and Agribusiness Representatives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joerger, Richard M.; Andreasen, Randall

    2000-01-01

    Secondary agriscience teachers (n=13) and agribusiness leaders (n=12) validated standards and objectives for agribusiness education in Utah, recommending a core of 12 standards. Written and oral communication skills and technologies for agricultural management and quality control were most important. (Contains 20 references.) (SK)

  16. Gender Stereotypes among Women Engineering and Technology Students in the UK: Lessons from Career Choice Narratives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, Abigail; Dainty, Andrew; Bagilhole, Barbara

    2012-01-01

    In the UK, women remain under-represented in engineering and technology (E&T). Research has, therefore, investigated barriers and solutions to women's recruitment, retention and progression. Recruitment into the sector may be supported by exploring the career decisions of women and men who have chosen to study E&T. Triangulating…

  17. Nuclear Technology in War and Peace: A Study of Issues and Choices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shanebrook, J. Richard

    This is the syllabus of a course that explores the technology of nuclear weapons and nuclear energy for electric power generation, and considers some problems of nuclear weapons proliferation and technical alternatives. It provides a course description, a course outline, a list of required readings, and information on the films shown in the…

  18. Virtual Team Meetings: Reflections on a Class Exercise Exploring Technology Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bull Schaefer, Rebecca A.; Erskine, Laura

    2012-01-01

    Students find that choosing the appropriate technology for a virtual team meeting is not as simple as it first appears. The authors describe a class exercise used to demonstrate the benefits and drawbacks of using virtual team meetings by requiring students to replace a face-to-face meeting with a virtual meeting. The exercise challenged students'…

  19. Participation in Science and Technology: Young People's Achievement-Related Choices in Late-Modern Societies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boe, Maria Vetleseter; Henriksen, Ellen Karoline; Lyons, Terry; Schreiner, Camilla

    2011-01-01

    Young people's participation in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) is a matter of international concern. Studies and careers that require physical sciences and advanced mathematics are most affected by the problem and women in particular are under-represented in many STEM fields. This article views international research about…

  20. Key Factors Affecting a Technology Entrepreneur's Choice of Incubator or Accelerator

    OpenAIRE

    Diane A. Isabelle

    2013-01-01

    Technology entrepreneurship rarely succeeds in isolation; increasingly, it occurs in interconnected networks of business partners and other organizations. For entrepreneurs lacking access to an established business ecosystem, incubators and accelerators provide a possible support mechanism for access to partners and resources. Yet, these relatively recent approaches to supporting entrepreneurship are still evolving. Therefore, it can be challenging for entrepreneurs to assess these mechanisms...

  1. Tool Choice for E-Learning: Task-Technology Fit through Media Synchronicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Jun; Wang, Ying

    2014-01-01

    One major challenge in online education is how to select appropriate e-learning tools for different learning tasks. Based on the premise of Task-Technology Fit Theory, this study suggests that the effectiveness of student learning in online courses depends on the alignment between two. Furthermore, it conceptualizes the formation of such a fit…

  2. A merge model with endogenous technological change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kypreos, S.; Bahn, O.

    2002-03-01

    A new version of the MERGE model, called MERGE-ETL, has been developed to consider endogenous technological change in the energy system. The basic formulation of MERGE-ETL as well as some first results are reported here. (author)

  3. Causal Models for Safety Assurance Technologies Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Fulfillment of NASA's System-Wide Safety and Assurance Technology (SSAT) project at NASA requires leveraging vast amounts of data into actionable knowledge. Models...

  4. Consequences of gas flux model choice on the interpretation of metabolic balance across 15 lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dugan, Hilary; Woolway, R. Iestyn; Santoso, Arianto; Corman, Jessica; Jaimes, Aline; Nodine, Emily; Patil, Vijay; Zwart, Jacob A.; Brentrup, Jennifer A.; Hetherington, Amy; Oliver, Samantha K.; Read, Jordan S.; Winters, Kirsten; Hanson, Paul; Read, Emily; Winslow, Luke; Weathers, Kathleen

    2016-01-01

    Ecosystem metabolism and the contribution of carbon dioxide from lakes to the atmosphere can be estimated from free-water gas measurements through the use of mass balance models, which rely on a gas transfer coefficient (k) to model gas exchange with the atmosphere. Theoretical and empirically based models of krange in complexity from wind-driven power functions to complex surface renewal models; however, model choice is rarely considered in most studies of lake metabolism. This study used high-frequency data from 15 lakes provided by the Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON) to study how model choice of kinfluenced estimates of lake metabolism and gas exchange with the atmosphere. We tested 6 models of k on lakes chosen to span broad gradients in surface area and trophic states; a metabolism model was then fit to all 6 outputs of k data. We found that hourly values for k were substantially different between models and, at an annual scale, resulted in significantly different estimates of lake metabolism and gas exchange with the atmosphere.

  5. Investigating Spatial Interdependence in E-Bike Choice Using Spatially Autoregressive Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chengcheng Xu

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Increased attention has been given to promoting e-bike usage in recent years. However, the research gap still exists in understanding the effects of spatial interdependence on e-bike choice. This study investigated how spatial interdependence affected the e-bike choice. The Moran’s I statistic test showed that spatial interdependence exists in e-bike choice at aggregated level. Bayesian spatial autoregressive logistic analyses were then used to investigate the spatial interdependence at individual level. Separate models were developed for commuting and non-commuting trips. The factors affecting e-bike choice are different between commuting and non-commuting trips. Spatial interdependence exists at both origin and destination sides of commuting and non-commuting trips. Travellers are more likely to choose e-bikes if their neighbours at the trip origin and destination also travel by e-bikes. And the magnitude of this spatial interdependence is different across various traffic analysis zones. The results suggest that, without considering spatial interdependence, the traditional methods may have biased estimation results and make systematic forecasting errors.

  6. Multiple data sets and modelling choices in a comparative LCA of disposable beverage cups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Harst, Eugenie; Potting, José; Kroeze, Carolien

    2014-10-01

    This study used multiple data sets and modelling choices in an environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) to compare typical disposable beverage cups made from polystyrene (PS), polylactic acid (PLA; bioplastic) and paper lined with bioplastic (biopaper). Incineration and recycling were considered as waste processing options, and for the PLA and biopaper cup also composting and anaerobic digestion. Multiple data sets and modelling choices were systematically used to calculate average results and the spread in results for each disposable cup in eleven impact categories. The LCA results of all combinations of data sets and modelling choices consistently identify three processes that dominate the environmental impact: (1) production of the cup's basic material (PS, PLA, biopaper), (2) cup manufacturing, and (3) waste processing. The large spread in results for impact categories strongly overlaps among the cups, however, and therefore does not allow a preference for one type of cup material. Comparison of the individual waste treatment options suggests some cautious preferences. The average waste treatment results indicate that recycling is the preferred option for PLA cups, followed by anaerobic digestion and incineration. Recycling is slightly preferred over incineration for the biopaper cups. There is no preferred waste treatment option for the PS cups. Taking into account the spread in waste treatment results for all cups, however, none of these preferences for waste processing options can be justified. The only exception is composting, which is least preferred for both PLA and biopaper cups. Our study illustrates that using multiple data sets and modelling choices can lead to considerable spread in LCA results. This makes comparing products more complex, but the outcomes more robust. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. How fair is safe enough? The cultural approach to societal technology choice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rayner, S.; Cantor, R.

    1987-01-01

    This paper consists of an argument and a pilot study. First is a general, perhaps philosophical, argument against the National Academy's viewpoint that dealing with risk is a two-stage process consisting of (a) assessment of facts, and (b) evaluation of facts in sociopolitical context. They argue that societal risk intrinsically revolves around social relations as much as around evaluations of probability. Second, they outline one particular approach to analyzing societal risk management styles. They call this the fairness hypothesis. Rather than focusing on probabilities and magnitudes of undesired events, this approach emphasizes societal preferences for principles of achieving consent to a technology, distributing liabilities, and investing trust in institutions. Conflict rather than probability is the chief focus of this approach to societal risk management. This view is illustrated by a recent empirical pilot study that explored the fairness hypothesis in the context of new nuclear technologies

  8. FEATURES OF ELECTRIC MOTOR CHOICE FOR NUCLEAR POWER PLANT TECHNOLOGICAL OBJECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.V. Shevchenko

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Nuclear power plants remain the basic power generating enterprises for Ukraine. Execution of works on their reliability control and operating conditions optimization is therefore of current importance. Trouble-free nuclear power plant operation is a vital technical, economical, and ecological problem, a solution to which is largely specified by reliable operation of electric equipment, namely, electric motors of nuclear power plant technological process drives.

  9. Choice of technological change for China's low-carbon development: Evidence from three urban agglomerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Pinrong; Li, Ke; Shao, Shuai

    2018-01-15

    China's three urban agglomerations, namely, "Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei", "Yangtze River Delta", and "Pearl River Delta", are the most developed regions in China. These agglomerations are also expected to play a leading role in China's low-carbon development. Energy-saving and carbon-free technological changes play key roles in the low-carbon development transformation of these regions. This study investigates the elasticities of the output and substitution of factors, and the biased technological change in the three urban agglomerations based on the stochastic frontier analysis with a translog production function. The results indicate that the economic growth of the three urban agglomerations is mainly driven by the increase in capital stock caused by investment, energy shortage, and environmental degradation. The relationship between electricity input and carbon dioxide emissions is affected by power generation and economic cycles and transforms from complementarity to substitution. However, this relationship varies among regions. Technological change is conducive to electricity saving, but it does not present an emission-reduction effect. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Clean coal technology choices relating to the future supply and demand of electricity in Southern Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lennon, S.J.

    1997-01-01

    The finalization of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has catalysed a high degree of debate and interest in the future of coal-fired power generation. Fossil fuel combustion is responsible for a significant percentage of pollutants emitted globally, and coal will continue to play a major role in the energy portfolios of many countries. This is particularly true for developing countries. This fact has resulted in a major focus on technologies which improve the efficiency of coal combustion and conversion to electrical energy, as well as technologies which directly of indirectly reduce overall emissions. The issues around clean coal technologies (CCT) and their evolution, development and uptake in both developed and developing countries are complex. This paper addresses these issues in a Southern African context, viewed from the policy perspective of developing countries and presented in a framework of electricity supply and demand considerations in the region. The principal climate change policy elements proposed for South Africa are presented in the context of the current electricity supply and demand situation in the region. These are presented in the context of Eskom's Integrated Electricity Planning (IEP) process including the environmental considerations inherent in decision-making processes. The potential future of the CCT, barriers to their introduction and potential measures to facilitate their accelerated adoption are discussed. (author). 4 refs., 5 tabs., 2 figs

  11. PRATICE CRAWL – MENTAL DISTABILITIES: ADULT CHOICE OF DRIVE TECHNOLOGY ADAPTED COMPETITORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dominique Redon

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Of the two schools most stressed about the act of propelling the crawl, crawl in practice, which is the most efficient swimming, the two modes of propulsion favorites are "The outstretched arm" next to the called swimmer paddling and "The arm bent S-shaped" under the so-called swimmer impeller (N. Lanotte, S. Lem, 2012 The debate is not yet settled (Potdevin F; Pelayo P. 2006. Any swimmer has a strategy for managing its own resources considering the cost / benefit of each stroke technique report, with the aim of improving strength (Arellano, R. (1992, its movement and hence its performance (Joshua, 1992 in retarded placed in individual practice crawl competition, open to different technical conditions, what is the movement that is most often practiced, according to "the outstretched arm" or "folded S-shaped arm "under the swimmer? Methods: We record video (Pk Chollet - 2003, during two Regional championships in France adapted swim organized by the French Federation of Adapted Sport tests crawl in Division 1 Division 2 and Division 3 according to the latest regulations for implementation first time. We question the choice: "The outstretched arm" or "arm bent S-shaped" under the swimmer, by interviews (Y.Meynaud; Duclos D.1996 professional supervisors or volunteers before tests their competitors and we competitors are questioning after their trials. Results: It appears on the video that all competitors swim the "arms outstretched" The point of view of professional or volunteer supervisors: no of them are not asked for the choice of method of propulsion is best for their competitors as they say swimming techniques they teach in their club are the same as for all disabled or not competitors. The point of view of competitors: For competitors the method of propulsion "outstretched arm" seems to them the most effective. Method "arm S" Their demand coordination of movement more difficult to obtain in the context of mental disability

  12. Using technology, choosing sex. The campaign against sex determination and the question of choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1992-01-01

    Women's groups and people's science and health groups formed the Forum Against Sex Determination and Sex Pre-Selection in November 1985 in Bombay, India, to prevent sex determination and sex preselection tests. The Forum considered sex determination and sex preselection to be an abuse of science and technology against people, especially women. Between 1901 and 1991, the sex ratio fell from 972 females/1000 males to 929/1000. The Forum saw the issue of sex determination and sex preselection as a link to oppression of and discrimination against females in all sectors of society. It also believed this to be a human rights issue. The Forum lobbied for a law regulating diagnostic techniques without banning them, since determining chromosomal abnormalities is important. The State of Maharashtra passed such a law in June 1988. It had some provisions which were counter-productive, however. For example, women undergoing a sex determination test must pay a fine of Rs 5 if found guilty of planning to terminate a pregnancy of a female fetus. Yet, neither the husband nor parents-in-law are liable, even though they often pressure women to undergo sex determination tests. The Forum's efforts and enactment of the law in Maharashtra have prompted other state governments and the central government to propose similar legislation. These state governments include Goa, Gujarat, and Orissa. The central government has met with organizations and individuals lobbying against misuse of diagnostic tests to obtain their counsel. The Forum does not feel comfortable with state control, however, since it tends to consider government to be against the people. Yet, the Forum did want the state to protect women's interests. It has raised important questions about technology, particularly concerning criteria to determine desirable and appropriate technologies.

  13. Honoring Choices Minnesota: preliminary data from a community-wide advance care planning model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Kent S; Kottke, Thomas E; Schettle, Sue

    2014-12-01

    Advance care planning (ACP) increases the likelihood that individuals who are dying receive the care that they prefer. It also reduces depression and anxiety in family members and increases family satisfaction with the process of care. Honoring Choices Minnesota is an ACP program based on the Respecting Choices model of La Crosse, Wisconsin. The objective of this report is to describe the process, which began in 2008, of implementing Honoring Choices Minnesota in a large, diverse metropolitan area. All eight large healthcare systems in the metropolitan area agreed to participate in the project, and as of April 30, 2013, the proportion of hospitalized individuals 65 and older with advance care directives in the electronic medical record was 12.1% to 65.6%. The proportion of outpatients aged 65 and older was 11.6% to 31.7%. Organizations that had sponsored recruitment initiatives had the highest proportions of records containing healthcare directives. It was concluded that it is possible to reduce redundancy by recruiting all healthcare systems in a metropolitan area to endorse the same ACP model, although significantly increasing the proportion of individuals with a healthcare directive in their medical record requires a campaign with recruitment of organizations and individuals. © 2014 The Authors.The Journal of the American Geriatrics Society published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The American Geriatrics Society.

  14. PRO-ECOLOGICAL ACTIONS AND CONSUMER CHOICES IN THE MODEL OF RESPONSIBLE BUSINESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katarzyna Olejniczak

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The current farming conditions cause that recent social and environmental aspects of management play an important role for the functioning of modern enterprises. This results from the fact that on the one hand the activities of modern enterprises are determined by the surroundings’ increasing complexity, on the other hand the growing demands of various groups of stakeholders build company’s success based not only on a quest to maximize their profi t, but primarily on taking the responsibility for the consequences of their actions. Additionally, the growing awareness of consumers makes more and more enterprises implement the concept of corporate social responsibility (CSR in their actions. For this reason, it is important to discuss about the actions and choices of consumers in the model of CSR. The aim of this article is to present the results of the research on customers‘s environmentally conscious activities and choices.

  15. Application of a New Hybrid Fuzzy AHP Model to the Location Choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chien-Chang Chou

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to propose a new hybrid fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP algorithm to deal with the decision-making problems in an uncertain and multiple-criteria environment. In this study, the proposed hybrid fuzzy AHP model is applied to the location choices of international distribution centers in international ports from the view of multiple-nation corporations. The results show that the proposed new hybrid fuzzy AHP model is an appropriate tool to solve the decision-making problems in an uncertain and multiple-criteria environment.

  16. Models of care choices in today's nursing workplace: where does team nursing sit?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fairbrother, Greg; Chiarella, Mary; Braithwaite, Jeffrey

    2015-11-01

    This paper provides an overview of the developmental history of models of care (MOC) in nursing since Florence Nightingale introduced nurse training programs in a drive to make nursing a discipline-based career option. The four principal choices of models of nursing care delivery (primary nursing, individual patient allocation, team nursing and functional nursing) are outlined and discussed, and recent MOC literature reviewed. The paper suggests that, given the ways work is being rapidly reconfigured in healthcare services and the pressures on the nursing workforce projected into the future, team nursing seems to offer the best solutions.

  17. Local structural properties and attribute characteristisc in 2-mode networks: p* models to map choices of theater events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Agneessens, F.; Roose, H.

    2008-01-01

    Choices of plays made by theatergoers can be considered as a 2-mode or affiliation network. In this article we illustrate how p* models (an exponential family of distributions for random graphs) can be used to uncover patterns of choices. Based on audience research in three theater institutions in

  18. Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Filipe, Joaquim; Kacprzyk, Janusz; Pina, Nuno

    2014-01-01

    This book includes extended and revised versions of a set of selected papers from the 2012 International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications (SIMULTECH 2012) which was sponsored by the Institute for Systems and Technologies of Information, Control and Communication (INSTICC) and held in Rome, Italy. SIMULTECH 2012 was technically co-sponsored by the Society for Modeling & Simulation International (SCS), GDR I3, Lionphant Simulation, Simulation Team and IFIP and held in cooperation with AIS Special Interest Group of Modeling and Simulation (AIS SIGMAS) and the Movimento Italiano Modellazione e Simulazione (MIMOS).

  19. MODELS OF TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION: AN INTEGRATIVE APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrei OGREZEANU

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The interdisciplinary study of information technology adoption has developed rapidly over the last 30 years. Various theoretical models have been developed and applied such as: the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM, Innovation Diffusion Theory (IDT, Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB, etc. The result of these many years of research is thousands of contributions to the field, which, however, remain highly fragmented. This paper develops a theoretical model of technology adoption by integrating major theories in the field: primarily IDT, TAM, and TPB. To do so while avoiding mess, an approach that goes back to basics in independent variable type’s development is proposed; emphasizing: 1 the logic of classification, and 2 psychological mechanisms behind variable types. Once developed these types are then populated with variables originating in empirical research. Conclusions are developed on which types are underpopulated and present potential for future research. I end with a set of methodological recommendations for future application of the model.

  20. A Day-to-Day Route Choice Model Based on Reinforcement Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fangfang Wei

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Day-to-day traffic dynamics are generated by individual traveler’s route choice and route adjustment behaviors, which are appropriate to be researched by using agent-based model and learning theory. In this paper, we propose a day-to-day route choice model based on reinforcement learning and multiagent simulation. Travelers’ memory, learning rate, and experience cognition are taken into account. Then the model is verified and analyzed. Results show that the network flow can converge to user equilibrium (UE if travelers can remember all the travel time they have experienced, but which is not necessarily the case under limited memory; learning rate can strengthen the flow fluctuation, but memory leads to the contrary side; moreover, high learning rate results in the cyclical oscillation during the process of flow evolution. Finally, both the scenarios of link capacity degradation and random link capacity are used to illustrate the model’s applications. Analyses and applications of our model demonstrate the model is reasonable and useful for studying the day-to-day traffic dynamics.

  1. Sensitivity of simulated regional Arctic climate to the choice of coupled model domain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dmitry V. Sein

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The climate over the Arctic has undergone changes in recent decades. In order to evaluate the coupled response of the Arctic system to external and internal forcing, our study focuses on the estimation of regional climate variability and its dependence on large-scale atmospheric and regional ocean circulations. A global ocean–sea ice model with regionally high horizontal resolution is coupled to an atmospheric regional model and global terrestrial hydrology model. This way of coupling divides the global ocean model setup into two different domains: one coupled, where the ocean and the atmosphere are interacting, and one uncoupled, where the ocean model is driven by prescribed atmospheric forcing and runs in a so-called stand-alone mode. Therefore, selecting a specific area for the regional atmosphere implies that the ocean–atmosphere system can develop ‘freely’ in that area, whereas for the rest of the global ocean, the circulation is driven by prescribed atmospheric forcing without any feedbacks. Five different coupled setups are chosen for ensemble simulations. The choice of the coupled domains was done to estimate the influences of the Subtropical Atlantic, Eurasian and North Pacific regions on northern North Atlantic and Arctic climate. Our simulations show that the regional coupled ocean–atmosphere model is sensitive to the choice of the modelled area. The different model configurations reproduce differently both the mean climate and its variability. Only two out of five model setups were able to reproduce the Arctic climate as observed under recent climate conditions (ERA-40 Reanalysis. Evidence is found that the main source of uncertainty for Arctic climate variability and its predictability is the North Pacific. The prescription of North Pacific conditions in the regional model leads to significant correlation with observations, even if the whole North Atlantic is within the coupled model domain. However, the inclusion of the

  2. Acceptance and use of technology for the choice of touristic destina-tions by persons of the third age: a study using UTAUT2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andréia Cássia de Moura

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The elderly have shown an increasing interest in new technologies and relate them to learning, social insertion and leisure. Considering the high number of changes in the profile of the Brazilian elderly and the tourist and technological contexts, this work aims to understand the behavioral intentions and the use of the internet by the elderly for the purposes of tourist destination choices. For this, the work extended the UTAUT2 Model of Venkatesh, Thong and Xu (2012, inserting new constructs related to technology: Perceived Risk and Confidence, by Slade et al (2015 and also adding Attitude, based on Curras-Perez, Ruiz-Mafe and Sanz-Blas (2014. The study is characterized as exploratory-descriptive. For that, a Survey was conducted, online and face-to-face, being applied for two months. Statistical analysis of multivariate analysis was performed using SPSS20 and the modeling analysis of structural equations using SmartPLS. The sample obtained was of 211 elderly people who use Internet for tourist purposes. As a result, the relations of the Habit, Hedonic Motivation, Trust and Performance Expectations as determinants of the Internet Use Attitude for tourism purposes and, in addition to that, the relation of the Habit construct, positively affecting the Usage Behavior . As far as the originality of the work was concerned, Atitude was a new concept used to compose the model, bringing something unprecedented to this field of studies in Brazil. In addition, innovations include the application of the UTAUT2 model to the Brazilian context, in a segment and market sector not yet explored in this field of research - the third age and tourism.

  3. Modeling 2-alternative forced-choice tasks: Accounting for both magnitude and difference effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratcliff, Roger; Voskuilen, Chelsea; Teodorescu, Andrei

    2018-03-01

    We present a model-based analysis of two-alternative forced-choice tasks in which two stimuli are presented side by side and subjects must make a comparative judgment (e.g., which stimulus is brighter). Stimuli can vary on two dimensions, the difference in strength of the two stimuli and the magnitude of each stimulus. Differences between the two stimuli produce typical RT and accuracy effects (i.e., subjects respond more quickly and more accurately when there is a larger difference between the two). However, the overall magnitude of the pair of stimuli also affects RT and accuracy. In the more common two-choice task, a single stimulus is presented and the stimulus varies on only one dimension. In this two-stimulus task, if the standard diffusion decision model is fit to the data with only drift rate (evidence accumulation rate) differing among conditions, the model cannot fit the data. However, if either of one of two variability parameters is allowed to change with stimulus magnitude, the model can fit the data. This results in two models that are extremely constrained with about one tenth of the number of parameters than there are data points while at the same time the models account for accuracy and correct and error RT distributions. While both of these versions of the diffusion model can account for the observed data, the model that allows across-trial variability in drift to vary might be preferred for theoretical reasons. The diffusion model fits are compared to the leaky competing accumulator model which did not perform as well. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Improving the representation of modal choice into bottom-up optimization energy system models - The MoCho-TIMES model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tattini, Jacopo; Ramea, Kalai; Gargiulo, Maurizio

    2018-01-01

    This study presents MoCho-TIMES, an original methodology for incorporating modal choice into energy-economy-environment-engineering (E4) system models. MoCho-TIMES addresses the scarce ability of E4 models to realistically depict behaviour in transport and allows for modal shift towards transit...... and mathematical expressions required to develop the approach. This study develops MoCho-TIMES in the standalone transportation sector of TIMES-DK, the integrated energy system model for Denmark. The model is tested for the Business as Usual scenario and for four alternative scenarios that imply diverse...

  5. The impact of near-term climate policy choices on technology and emission transition pathways

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eom, Jiyong; Edmonds, Jae; Krey, Volker; Johnson, Nils; Longden, Thomas; Luderer, Gunnar; Riahi, Keywan; Van Vuuren, Detlef P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X

    2015-01-01

    This paper explores the implications of delays (to 2030) in implementing optimal policies for long-term transition pathways to limit climate forcing to 450ppm CO2e on the basis of the AMPERE Work Package 2 model comparison study. The paper highlights the critical importance of the period 2030-2050

  6. Socio-demographic characteristics affecting sport tourism choices: A structural model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nataša Slak Valek

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Effective tourism management in the field of sports tourism requires an understanding of differences in socioeconomic characteristics both within and between different market segments. Objective: In the broad tourism market demographic characteristics have been extensively analyzed for differences in destination choices, however little is known about demographic factors affecting sport tourists' decisions. Methods: A sample of Slovenian sports tourists was analyzed using data from a comprehensive survey of local and outbound tourist activity conducted by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia in 2008. After data weighting the information for 353,783 sports related trips were available for analysis. The research model adopted suggests that four socio-demographic characteristics (gender, age, level of education and income significantly affect a tourist's choice of sports related travel either locally within Slovenia or to a foreign country. Furthermore the destination (local or foreign has an influence on the choice of the type of accommodation selected and the tourist's total expenditure for the trip. For testing the first part of our model (the socio-demographic characteristics effects a linear regression was used, and for the final part of the model (the selection of accommodation type and travel expenditure t-test were applied. Results: The result shows the standardized β regression coefficients are all statistically significant at the .001 level for the tested socio-demographic characteristics and also the overall regression model was statistically significant at .001 level. Conclusions: With these results the study confirmed that all the selected socio-demographic characteristics have a significant influence on the sport-active tourist when choosing between a domestic and foreign tourism destination which in turn affect the type of accommodation chosen and the level of expenditure while travelling.

  7. A joint model of mode and shipment size choice using the first generation of Commodity Flow Survey Public Use Microdata

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monique Stinson

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available A behavior-based supply chain and freight transportation model was developed and implemented for the Maricopa Association of Governments (MAG and Pima Association of Governments (PAG. This innovative, data-driven modeling system simulates commodity flows to, from and within Phoenix and Tucson Megaregion and is used for regional planning purposes. This paper details the logistics choice component of the system and describes the position and functioning of this component in the overall framework. The logistics choice model uses a nested logit formulation to evaluate mode choice and shipment size jointly. Modeling decisions related to integrating this component within the overall framework are discussed. This paper also describes practical insights gained from using the 2012 Commodity Flow Survey Public Use Microdata (released in 2015, which was the principal data source used to estimate the joint shipment size-mode choice nested logit model. Finally, the validation effort and related lessons learned are described.

  8. Key Factors Affecting a Technology Entrepreneur's Choice of Incubator or Accelerator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diane A. Isabelle

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Technology entrepreneurship rarely succeeds in isolation; increasingly, it occurs in interconnected networks of business partners and other organizations. For entrepreneurs lacking access to an established business ecosystem, incubators and accelerators provide a possible support mechanism for access to partners and resources. Yet, these relatively recent approaches to supporting entrepreneurship are still evolving. Therefore, it can be challenging for entrepreneurs to assess these mechanisms and to make insightful decisions on whether or not to join an incubator or accelerator, and which incubator or accelerator best meets their needs. In this article, five key factors that entrepreneurs should take into consideration about incubators and accelerators are offered. Insights are drawn from two surveys of managers and users of incubators and accelerators. An understanding of these five key success factors (stage of venture, fit with incubator’s mission, selection and graduation policies, services provided, and network of partners and potential pitfalls will help entrepreneurs confidently enter into a relationship with an incubator or accelerator.

  9. Impact of implementation choices on quantitative predictions of cell-based computational models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kursawe, Jochen; Baker, Ruth E.; Fletcher, Alexander G.

    2017-09-01

    'Cell-based' models provide a powerful computational tool for studying the mechanisms underlying the growth and dynamics of biological tissues in health and disease. An increasing amount of quantitative data with cellular resolution has paved the way for the quantitative parameterisation and validation of such models. However, the numerical implementation of cell-based models remains challenging, and little work has been done to understand to what extent implementation choices may influence model predictions. Here, we consider the numerical implementation of a popular class of cell-based models called vertex models, which are often used to study epithelial tissues. In two-dimensional vertex models, a tissue is approximated as a tessellation of polygons and the vertices of these polygons move due to mechanical forces originating from the cells. Such models have been used extensively to study the mechanical regulation of tissue topology in the literature. Here, we analyse how the model predictions may be affected by numerical parameters, such as the size of the time step, and non-physical model parameters, such as length thresholds for cell rearrangement. We find that vertex positions and summary statistics are sensitive to several of these implementation parameters. For example, the predicted tissue size decreases with decreasing cell cycle durations, and cell rearrangement may be suppressed by large time steps. These findings are counter-intuitive and illustrate that model predictions need to be thoroughly analysed and implementation details carefully considered when applying cell-based computational models in a quantitative setting.

  10. Integrated Mode Choice, Small Aircraft Demand, and Airport Operations Model User's Guide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yackovetsky, Robert E. (Technical Monitor); Dollyhigh, Samuel M.

    2004-01-01

    A mode choice model that generates on-demand air travel forecasts at a set of GA airports based on changes in economic characteristics, vehicle performance characteristics such as speed and cost, and demographic trends has been integrated with a model to generate itinerate aircraft operations by airplane category at a set of 3227 airports. Numerous intermediate outputs can be generated, such as the number of additional trips diverted from automobiles and schedule air by the improved performance and cost of on-demand air vehicles. The total number of transported passenger miles that are diverted is also available. From these results the number of new aircraft to service the increased demand can be calculated. Output from the models discussed is in the format to generate the origin and destination traffic flow between the 3227 airports based on solutions to a gravity model.

  11. Capacity Expansion Modeling for Storage Technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hale, Elaine; Stoll, Brady; Mai, Trieu

    2017-04-03

    The Resource Planning Model (RPM) is a capacity expansion model designed for regional power systems and high levels of renewable generation. Recent extensions capture value-stacking for storage technologies, including batteries and concentrating solar power with storage. After estimating per-unit capacity value and curtailment reduction potential, RPM co-optimizes investment decisions and reduced-form dispatch, accounting for planning reserves; energy value, including arbitrage and curtailment reduction; and three types of operating reserves. Multiple technology cost scenarios are analyzed to determine level of deployment in the Western Interconnection under various conditions.

  12. Does cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccine choice vary across the U.S.? An agent-based modeling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DePasse, Jay V; Nowalk, Mary Patricia; Smith, Kenneth J; Raviotta, Jonathan M; Shim, Eunha; Zimmerman, Richard K; Brown, Shawn T

    2017-07-13

    In a prior agent-based modeling study, offering a choice of influenza vaccine type was shown to be cost-effective when the simulated population represented the large, Washington DC metropolitan area. This study calculated the public health impact and cost-effectiveness of the same four strategies: No Choice, Pediatric Choice, Adult Choice, or Choice for Both Age Groups in five United States (U.S.) counties selected to represent extremes in population age distribution. The choice offered was either inactivated influenza vaccine delivered intramuscularly with a needle (IIV-IM) or an age-appropriate needle-sparing vaccine, specifically, the nasal spray (LAIV) or intradermal (IIV-ID) delivery system. Using agent-based modeling, individuals were simulated as they interacted with others, and influenza was tracked as it spread through each population. Influenza vaccination coverage derived from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data, was increased by 6.5% (range 3.25%-11.25%) to reflect the effects of vaccine choice. Assuming moderate influenza infectivity, the number of averted cases was highest for the Choice for Both Age Groups in all five counties despite differing demographic profiles. In a cost-effectiveness analysis, Choice for Both Age Groups was the dominant strategy. Sensitivity analyses varying influenza infectivity, costs, and degrees of vaccine coverage increase due to choice, supported the base case findings. Offering a choice to receive a needle-sparing influenza vaccine has the potential to significantly reduce influenza disease burden and to be cost saving. Consistent findings across diverse populations confirmed these findings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Calibration of a joint time assignment and mode choice model system

    OpenAIRE

    Greeven, Paulina; Jara-Diaz, Sergio R.; Munizaga, Marcela A.; Axhausen, Kay W.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we report the results of applying a new microeconomic framework to model time assignment to activities, goods consumption and mode choice jointly (Jara-Díaz and Guevara, 2003; Jara-Díaz and Guerra, 2003) that identifies the links between these decisions and permits the calculation of all the components of the subjective value of time defined in the literature: the value of time as a resource, value of assigning time to a specific activity and the value of saving time in a specif...

  14. Modeling bistable cell-fate choices in the Drosophila eye: qualitative and quantitative perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, Thomas G. W.; Tabei, S. M. Ali; Dinner, Aaron R.; Rebay, Ilaria

    2010-01-01

    A major goal of developmental biology is to understand the molecular mechanisms whereby genetic signaling networks establish and maintain distinct cell types within multicellular organisms. Here, we review cell-fate decisions in the developing eye of Drosophila melanogaster and the experimental results that have revealed the topology of the underlying signaling circuitries. We then propose that switch-like network motifs based on positive feedback play a central role in cell-fate choice, and discuss how mathematical modeling can be used to understand and predict the bistable or multistable behavior of such networks. PMID:20570936

  15. Models in cooperative game theory crisp, fuzzy, and multi-choice games

    CERN Document Server

    Branzei, Rodica; Tijs, Stef

    2005-01-01

    This book investigates models in cooperative game theory in which the players have the possibility to cooperate partially. In a crisp game the agents are either fully involved or not involved at all in coperation with some other agents, while in a fuzzy game players are allowed to cooperate with infinite many different participation levels, varying from non-cooperation to full cooperation. A multi-choice game describes the intermediate case in which each player may have a fixed number of activity levels. Different set and one-point solution concepts for these games are presented. The propertie

  16. A comparison of methods for representing random taste heterogeneity in discrete choice models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; Hess, Stephane

    2009-01-01

    This paper reports the findings of a systematic study using Monte Carlo experiments and a real dataset aimed at comparing the performance of various ways of specifying random taste heterogeneity in a discrete choice model. Specifically, the analysis compares the performance of two recent advanced...... distributions. Both approaches allow the researcher to increase the number of parameters as desired. The paper provides a range of evidence on the ability of the various approaches to recover various distributions from data. The two advanced approaches are comparable in terms of the likelihoods achieved...

  17. Importance of the habitat choice behavior assumed when modeling the effects of food and temperature on fish populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wildhaber, Mark L.; Lamberson, Peter J.

    2004-01-01

    Various mechanisms of habitat choice in fishes based on food and/or temperature have been proposed: optimal foraging for food alone; behavioral thermoregulation for temperature alone; and behavioral energetics and discounted matching for food and temperature combined. Along with development of habitat choice mechanisms, there has been a major push to develop and apply to fish populations individual-based models that incorporate various forms of these mechanisms. However, it is not known how the wide variation in observed and hypothesized mechanisms of fish habitat choice could alter fish population predictions (e.g. growth, size distributions, etc.). We used spatially explicit, individual-based modeling to compare predicted fish populations using different submodels of patch choice behavior under various food and temperature distributions. We compared predicted growth, temperature experience, food consumption, and final spatial distribution using the different models. Our results demonstrated that the habitat choice mechanism assumed in fish population modeling simulations was critical to predictions of fish distribution and growth rates. Hence, resource managers who use modeling results to predict fish population trends should be very aware of and understand the underlying patch choice mechanisms used in their models to assure that those mechanisms correctly represent the fish populations being modeled.

  18. Monte-Carlo modelling to determine optimum filter choices for sub-microsecond optical pyrometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ota, Thomas A.; Chapman, David J.; Eakins, Daniel E.

    2017-04-01

    When designing a spectral-band pyrometer for use at high time resolutions (sub-μs), there is ambiguity regarding the optimum characteristics for a spectral filter(s). In particular, while prior work has discussed uncertainties in spectral-band pyrometry, there has been little discussion of the effects of noise which is an important consideration in time-resolved, high speed experiments. Using a Monte-Carlo process to simulate the effects of noise, a model of collection from a black body has been developed to give insights into the optimum choices for centre wavelength and passband width. The model was validated and then used to explore the effects of centre wavelength and passband width on measurement uncertainty. This reveals a transition centre wavelength below which uncertainties in calculated temperature are high. To further investigate system performance, simultaneous variation of the centre wavelength and bandpass width of a filter is investigated. Using data reduction, the effects of temperature and noise levels are illustrated and an empirical approximation is determined. The results presented show that filter choice can significantly affect instrument performance and, while best practice requires detailed modelling to achieve optimal performance, the expression presented can be used to aid filter selection.

  19. Technological diffusion in the Ramsey model

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Duczynski, Petr

    2002-01-01

    Roč. 1, č. 3 (2002), s. 243-250 ISSN 1607-0704 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z7085904 Keywords : neoclassical growth model * technological diffusion Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.ijbe.org/table%20of%20content/pdf/vol1-3/06.pdf

  20. Exemplary Training Models in Industrial Technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatton, Michael J., Comp.

    Prepared by Canadian, Chinese Taipei, and Thai educational agencies and based on surveys of Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation member nations, this report provides descriptions of 52 exemplary industrial technology training models in Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong, Malaysia, New Zealand, the Philippines, the People's Republic…

  1. Taking dietary habits into account: A computational method for modeling food choices that goes beyond price.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahmatollah Beheshti

    Full Text Available Computational models have gained popularity as a predictive tool for assessing proposed policy changes affecting dietary choice. Specifically, they have been used for modeling dietary changes in response to economic interventions, such as price and income changes. Herein, we present a novel addition to this type of model by incorporating habitual behaviors that drive individuals to maintain or conform to prior eating patterns. We examine our method in a simulated case study of food choice behaviors of low-income adults in the US. We use data from several national datasets, including the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the USDA, to parameterize our model and develop predictive capabilities in 1 quantifying the influence of prior diet preferences when food budgets are increased and 2 simulating the income elasticities of demand for four food categories. Food budgets can increase because of greater affordability (due to food aid and other nutritional assistance programs, or because of higher income. Our model predictions indicate that low-income adults consume unhealthy diets when they have highly constrained budgets, but that even after budget constraints are relaxed, these unhealthy eating behaviors are maintained. Specifically, diets in this population, before and after changes in food budgets, are characterized by relatively low consumption of fruits and vegetables and high consumption of fat. The model results for income elasticities also show almost no change in consumption of fruit and fat in response to changes in income, which is in agreement with data from the World Bank's International Comparison Program (ICP. Hence, the proposed method can be used in assessing the influences of habitual dietary patterns on the effectiveness of food policies.

  2. Taking dietary habits into account: A computational method for modeling food choices that goes beyond price.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beheshti, Rahmatollah; Jones-Smith, Jessica C; Igusa, Takeru

    2017-01-01

    Computational models have gained popularity as a predictive tool for assessing proposed policy changes affecting dietary choice. Specifically, they have been used for modeling dietary changes in response to economic interventions, such as price and income changes. Herein, we present a novel addition to this type of model by incorporating habitual behaviors that drive individuals to maintain or conform to prior eating patterns. We examine our method in a simulated case study of food choice behaviors of low-income adults in the US. We use data from several national datasets, including the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the USDA, to parameterize our model and develop predictive capabilities in 1) quantifying the influence of prior diet preferences when food budgets are increased and 2) simulating the income elasticities of demand for four food categories. Food budgets can increase because of greater affordability (due to food aid and other nutritional assistance programs), or because of higher income. Our model predictions indicate that low-income adults consume unhealthy diets when they have highly constrained budgets, but that even after budget constraints are relaxed, these unhealthy eating behaviors are maintained. Specifically, diets in this population, before and after changes in food budgets, are characterized by relatively low consumption of fruits and vegetables and high consumption of fat. The model results for income elasticities also show almost no change in consumption of fruit and fat in response to changes in income, which is in agreement with data from the World Bank's International Comparison Program (ICP). Hence, the proposed method can be used in assessing the influences of habitual dietary patterns on the effectiveness of food policies.

  3. A customer-centric approach towards evaluating single-choice information technology service provision to the parastatal sector of South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MC Cant

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The article presents a case study whereby the service performance of a single-choice information technology service provider in the parastatal industry of South Africa is measured against multi-choice private service providers without any provisional agreements.  The outcome of the case study reveals that single-choice service provision options with provisional agreements have a limited chance of success if they are not supported by strong service user inputs.  In fact, provisional strategies that disallow sound competition among service providers are bound to impact negatively on user preferences as well as information technology skills development opportunities that  are required to improve service provision generally and long-term survival in particular.

  4. Model complexity and choice of model approaches for practical simulations of CO2 injection, migration, leakage and long-term fate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Celia, Michael A. [Princeton Univ., NJ (United States)

    2016-12-30

    This report documents the accomplishments achieved during the project titled “Model complexity and choice of model approaches for practical simulations of CO2 injection,migration, leakage and long-term fate” funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Fossil Energy. The objective of the project was to investigate modeling approaches of various levels of complexity relevant to geologic carbon storage (GCS) modeling with the goal to establish guidelines on choice of modeling approach.

  5. Choice of technological regimes of a blast furnace operation with injection of hot reducing gases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Babich, A. I.

    2002-08-01

    Full Text Available Injection rate of fossil fuels is limited because of drop in the flame temperature in the raceway and problems in the deadman region and the cohesive zone. The next step for obtaining a considerable coke saving, a better operation in the deadman as an well as increase in blast furnace productivity and minimizing the environmental impact due to a decrease in carbon dioxide emmision would be injection by tuyeres of hot reducing gases (HRG which are produced by low grade coal gasification or top gas regenerating. Use of HRG in combination with high pulverized coal inyection PCI rate and oxigen enrichment in the blast could allow to keep and to increase the competitiveness of the blast furnace process. Calculations using a mathematical model show that the HRG injection in combination with pulverized coal (PC and enriching blast with oxigen can provide an increase in PC rate up to 300-400 kg/tHM and a rise in the furnace productivity by 40-50 %. Blast furnace operation with full oxigen blast (100 % of process oxigen with the exception for the hot blast is possible when HRG is injected.

    La tasa de inyección de combustibles fósiles está limitada a causa de la caída de la temperatura de llama en el raceway (cavidad frente a las toberas y a problemas en la región del "hombre muerto" y en la zona cohesiva. La inyección por tobera de gases reductores calientes (GRC, que se producen por gasificación de carbón de bajo grado o generación de gas de tragante, será la próxima etapa para lograr un considerable ahorro adicional de coque, una zona del "hombre muerto" bien definida, además de un aumento en la productividad del horno alto y para minimizar el impacto ambiental debido a una disminución de la emisión de dióxido de carbono. El uso de GRC en combinación con una tasa elevada de inyección de carbón pulverizado (ICP con viento enriquecido en oxígeno, podrá permitir mantener y aumentar la competitividad del proceso del horno

  6. Variation in estimated ozone-related health impacts of climate change due to modeling choices and assumptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Post, Ellen S; Grambsch, Anne; Weaver, Chris; Morefield, Philip; Huang, Jin; Leung, Lai-Yung; Nolte, Christopher G; Adams, Peter; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Zhu, Jin-Hong; Mahoney, Hardee

    2012-11-01

    Future climate change may cause air quality degradation via climate-induced changes in meteorology, atmospheric chemistry, and emissions into the air. Few studies have explicitly modeled the potential relationships between climate change, air quality, and human health, and fewer still have investigated the sensitivity of estimates to the underlying modeling choices. Our goal was to assess the sensitivity of estimated ozone-related human health impacts of climate change to key modeling choices. Our analysis included seven modeling systems in which a climate change model is linked to an air quality model, five population projections, and multiple concentration-response functions. Using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP), we estimated future ozone (O(3))-related health effects in the United States attributable to simulated climate change between the years 2000 and approximately 2050, given each combination of modeling choices. Health effects and concentration-response functions were chosen to match those used in the U.S. EPA's 2008 Regulatory Impact Analysis of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for O(3). Different combinations of methodological choices produced a range of estimates of national O(3)-related mortality from roughly 600 deaths avoided as a result of climate change to 2,500 deaths attributable to climate change (although the large majority produced increases in mortality). The choice of the climate change and the air quality model reflected the greatest source of uncertainty, with the other modeling choices having lesser but still substantial effects. Our results highlight the need to use an ensemble approach, instead of relying on any one set of modeling choices, to assess the potential risks associated with O(3)-related human health effects resulting from climate change.

  7. Flying personal planes: modeling the airport choices of general aviation pilots using stated preference methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camasso, M J; Jagannathan, R

    2001-01-01

    This study employed stated preference (SP) models to determine why general aviation pilots choose to base and operate their aircraft at some airports and not others. Thirteen decision variables identified in pilot focus groups and in the general aviation literature were incorporated into a series of hypothetical choice tasks or scenarios. The scenarios were offered within a fractional factorial design to establish orthogonality and to preclude dominance in any combination of variables. Data from 113 pilots were analyzed for individual differences across pilots using conditional logit regression with and without controls. The results demonstrate that some airport attributes (e.g., full-range hospitality services, paved parallel taxiway, and specific types of runway lighting and landing aids) increase pilot utility. Heavy airport congestion and airport landing fees, on the other hand, decrease pilot utility. The importance of SP methodology as a vehicle for modeling choice behavior and as an input into the planning and prioritization process is discussed. Actual or potential applications include the development of structured decision-making instruments in the behavioral sciences and in human service programs.

  8. The unified model of vegetarian identity: A conceptual framework for understanding plant-based food choices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenfeld, Daniel L; Burrow, Anthony L

    2017-05-01

    By departing from social norms regarding food behaviors, vegetarians acquire membership in a distinct social group and can develop a salient vegetarian identity. However, vegetarian identities are diverse, multidimensional, and unique to each individual. Much research has identified fundamental psychological aspects of vegetarianism, and an identity framework that unifies these findings into common constructs and conceptually defines variables is needed. Integrating psychological theories of identity with research on food choices and vegetarianism, this paper proposes a conceptual model for studying vegetarianism: The Unified Model of Vegetarian Identity (UMVI). The UMVI encompasses ten dimensions-organized into three levels (contextual, internalized, and externalized)-that capture the role of vegetarianism in an individual's self-concept. Contextual dimensions situate vegetarianism within contexts; internalized dimensions outline self-evaluations; and externalized dimensions describe enactments of identity through behavior. Together, these dimensions form a coherent vegetarian identity, characterizing one's thoughts, feelings, and behaviors regarding being vegetarian. By unifying dimensions that capture psychological constructs universally, the UMVI can prevent discrepancies in operationalization, capture the inherent diversity of vegetarian identities, and enable future research to generate greater insight into how people understand themselves and their food choices. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Gendered study choice: a literature review. A review of theory and research into the unequal representation of male and female students in mathematics, science, and technology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yazilitas, D.; Yazilitas, D.; Svensson, Jorgen S.; de Vries, Geert; Saharso, Sawitri

    2013-01-01

    This article presents an overview of the recent literature on gendered patterns of academic choice in mathematics, science, and technology. It distinguishes in this literature micro-level, macro-level, and institutional explanations. Micro-level explanations focus primarily on psychological

  10. Mode choice models' ability to express intention to change travel behaviour considering non-compensatory rules and latent variables

    OpenAIRE

    Sanko, Nobuhiro; Morikawa, Takayuki; Kurauchi, Shinya

    2013-01-01

    Disaggregate behaviour choice models have been improved in many aspects, but they are rarely evaluated from the viewpoint of their ability to express intention to change travel behaviour. This study compared various models, including objective and latent models and compensatory and non-compensatory decision-making models. Latent models contain latent factors calculated using the LISREL (linear structural relations) model. Non-compensatory models are based on a lexicographic-semiorder heuristi...

  11. Data analysis and approximate models model choice, location-scale, analysis of variance, nonparametric regression and image analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Davies, Patrick Laurie

    2014-01-01

    Introduction IntroductionApproximate Models Notation Two Modes of Statistical AnalysisTowards One Mode of Analysis Approximation, Randomness, Chaos, Determinism ApproximationA Concept of Approximation Approximation Approximating a Data Set by a Model Approximation Regions Functionals and EquivarianceRegularization and Optimality Metrics and DiscrepanciesStrong and Weak Topologies On Being (almost) Honest Simulations and Tables Degree of Approximation and p-values ScalesStability of Analysis The Choice of En(α, P) Independence Procedures, Approximation and VaguenessDiscrete Models The Empirical Density Metrics and Discrepancies The Total Variation Metric The Kullback-Leibler and Chi-Squared Discrepancies The Po(λ) ModelThe b(k, p) and nb(k, p) Models The Flying Bomb Data The Student Study Times Data OutliersOutliers, Data Analysis and Models Breakdown Points and Equivariance Identifying Outliers and Breakdown Outliers in Multivariate Data Outliers in Linear Regression Outliers in Structured Data The Location...

  12. Does a peer model's task proficiency influence children's solution choice and innovation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Lara A; Kendal, Rachel L; Flynn, Emma G

    2015-11-01

    The current study investigated whether 4- to 6-year-old children's task solution choice was influenced by the past proficiency of familiar peer models and the children's personal prior task experience. Peer past proficiency was established through behavioral assessments of interactions with novel tasks alongside peer and teacher predictions of each child's proficiency. Based on these assessments, one peer model with high past proficiency and one age-, sex-, dominance-, and popularity-matched peer model with lower past proficiency were trained to remove a capsule using alternative solutions from a three-solution artificial fruit task. Video demonstrations of the models were shown to children after they had either a personal successful interaction or no interaction with the task. In general, there was not a strong bias toward the high past-proficiency model, perhaps due to a motivation to acquire multiple methods and the salience of other transmission biases. However, there was some evidence of a model-based past-proficiency bias; when the high past-proficiency peer matched the participants' original solution, there was increased use of that solution, whereas if the high past-proficiency peer demonstrated an alternative solution, there was increased use of the alternative social solution and novel solutions. Thus, model proficiency influenced innovation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. On the choice of statistical models for estimating occurrence and extinction from animal surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorazio, R.M.

    2007-01-01

    In surveys of natural animal populations the number of animals that are present and available to be detected at a sample location is often low, resulting in few or no detections. Low detection frequencies are especially common in surveys of imperiled species; however, the choice of sampling method and protocol also may influence the size of the population that is vulnerable to detection. In these circumstances, probabilities of animal occurrence and extinction will generally be estimated more accurately if the models used in data analysis account for differences in abundance among sample locations and for the dependence between site-specific abundance and detection. Simulation experiments are used to illustrate conditions wherein these types of models can be expected to outperform alternative estimators of population site occupancy and extinction. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

  14. Estimating health state utility values from discrete choice experiments--a QALY space model approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Yuanyuan; Norman, Richard; Viney, Rosalie

    2014-09-01

    Using discrete choice experiments (DCEs) to estimate health state utility values has become an important alternative to the conventional methods of Time Trade-Off and Standard Gamble. Studies using DCEs have typically used the conditional logit to estimate the underlying utility function. The conditional logit is known for several limitations. In this paper, we propose two types of models based on the mixed logit: one using preference space and the other using quality-adjusted life year (QALY) space, a concept adapted from the willingness-to-pay literature. These methods are applied to a dataset collected using the EQ-5D. The results showcase the advantages of using QALY space and demonstrate that the preferred QALY space model provides lower estimates of the utility values than the conditional logit, with the divergence increasing with worsening health states. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. Translational research into intertemporal choice: the Western scrub-jay as an animal model for future-thinking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thom, James M; Clayton, Nicola S

    2015-03-01

    Decisions often involve outcomes that will not materialise until later, and choices between immediate gratification and future consequences are thought to be important for human health and welfare. Combined human and animal research has identified impulsive intertemporal choice as an important factor in drug-taking and pathological gambling. In this paper, we give an overview of recent research into intertemporal choice in non-human animals, and argue that this work could offer insight into human behaviour through the development of animal models. As an example, we discuss the role of future-thinking in intertemporal choice, and review the case for the Western scrub-jay (Aphelocoma californica) as an animal model of such prospective cognition. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled: Tribute to Tom Zentall. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Consideration sets, intentions and the inclusion of "don't know" in a two-stage model for voter choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paap, R; van Nierop, E; van Heerde, HJ; Wedel, M; Franses, PH; Alsem, KJ

    2005-01-01

    We present a statistical model for voter choice that incorporates a consideration set stage and final vote intention stage. The first stage involves a multivariate probit (MVP) model to describe the probabilities that a candidate or a party gets considered. The second stage of the model is a

  17. Choice Overload, Satisficing Behavior, and Price Distribution in a Time Allocation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Álvarez

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent psychological research indicates that consumers that search exhaustively for the best option of a market product—known as maximizers—eventually feel worse than consumers who just look for something good enough—called satisficers. We formulate a time allocation model to explore the relationship between different distributions of prices of the product and the satisficing behavior and the related welfare of the consumer. We show numerically that, as the number of options becomes large, the maximizing behavior produces less and less welfare and eventually leads to choice paralysis—these are effects of choice overload—whereas satisficing conducts entail higher levels of satisfaction and do not end up in paralysis. For different price distributions, we provide consistent evidence that maximizers are better off for a low number of options, whereas satisficers are better off for a sufficiently large number of options. We also show how the optimal satisficing behavior is affected when the underlying price distribution varies. We provide evidence that the mean and the dispersion of a symmetric distribution of prices—but not the shape of the distribution—condition the satisficing behavior of consumers. We also show that this need not be the case for asymmetric distributions.

  18. NASA Chandra X-ray Observatory Selected as Editor's Choice in 2000 Discover Magazine Awards for Technological Innovation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2000-06-01

    The Chandra X-ray Observatory, NASA's newest and most powerful X-ray space telescope, has been selected as the winner of the Editor's Choice category of the 2000 Discover Magazine Awards for Technological Innovation. The team of government, industry, university and research institutions that designed, built and deployed Chandra for NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, Ala, will be formally recognized June 24 at a gala awards celebration at Epcot at the Walt Disney World Resort in Orlando, Fl. Dr. Harvey Tananbaum, director of the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory's Chandra X-ray Science Center, Cambridge, Mass., which conducts the Chandra science mission for NASA, will receive the award on behalf of the team. "Chandra has opened a new window for astronomers into the universe of high-energy cosmic events such as pulsars, supernova remnants and black holes," said Tananbaum. "We're now able to create spectacularly detailed images of celestial phenomena whose mere existence we could only hypothesize before." Among Chandra's most significant discoveries to date, he lists the detection of a giant ring around the heart of the Crab Nebula, details of the shock wave created by an exploding star and resolution of the high-energy X-ray "glow" in the universe into millions of specific light sources. "The successful launch, deployment and on-orbit operations of NASA's Chandra X-ray Observatory is a testament to the solid partnership between TRW, NASA and the science community that has been enabling NASA's most important space science missions for the past 40 years," said Timothy W. Hannemann, executive vice president and general manager, TRW Space & Electronics Group. "The extraordinary images that Chandra is delivering daily speaks loudly not only to the quality of the science instruments on board, but also to the engineering talents and dedication to mission success exhibited by every member of NASA's Chandra mission team." Chandra, named in honor of Nobel

  19. Which Are My Future Career Priorities and What Influenced My Choice of Studying Science, Technology, Engineering or Mathematics? Some Insights on Educational Choice--Case of Slovenia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cerinsek, Gregor; Hribar, Tina; Glodez, Natasa; Dolinsek, Slavko

    2013-01-01

    This paper is addressing the problem of under-representation of young people in general, and females in particular, in the fields of science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) in Slovenia. It has two main objectives: (1) to identify which priorities male and female STEM students in Slovenia seek in their future careers, and (2) to…

  20. Choice Model and Influencing Factor Analysis of Travel Mode for Migrant Workers: Case Study in Xi’an, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Chen

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on the basic theory and methods of disaggregate choice model, the influencing factors in travel mode choice for migrant workers are analyzed, according to 1366 data samples of Xi’an migrant workers. Walking, bus, subway, and taxi are taken as the alternative parts of travel modes for migrant workers, and a multinomial logit (MNL model of travel mode for migrant workers is set up. The validity of the model is verified by the hit rate, and the hit rates of four travel modes are all greater than 80%. Finally, the influence of different factors affecting the choice of travel mode is analyzed in detail, and the inelasticity of each factor is analyzed with the elasticity theory. Influencing factors such as age, education level, and monthly gross income have significant impact on travel choice mode for migrant workers. The elasticity values of education degree are greater than 1, indicating that it on the travel mode choice is of elasticity, while the elasticity values of gender, industry distribution, and travel purpose are less than 1, indicating that these factors on travel mode choice are of inelasticity.

  1. A structural model of technology acceptance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Etienne Erasmus

    2015-04-01

    Research purpose: The aim of this study was to test the technology acceptance model within a South African SAP® Enterprise Resource Planning user environment. Motivation for the study: No study could be traced in which the technology acceptance model has been evaluated in the South African context. Research approach, design and method: A cross-sectional survey design was used. The 23-item Technology Acceptance Model Questionnaire was deployed amongst SAP® Enterprise Resource Planning users (N = 241. Main findings: The results confirmed significant paths from perceived usefulness of the information system to attitudes towards and behavioural intentions to use it. Furthermore, behavioural intention to use the system predicted actual use thereof. Perceived ease of use indirectly affected attitudes towards and behavioural intentions to use via perceived usefulness of the information system. Practical/managerial implications: Practitioners should build user confidence by ensuring the ease of use of a new system, providing relevant education, training and guidance and reiterating its usefulness and future added value to the user’s job and career. Contribution/value-add: This study contributes to scientific knowledge regarding the influence of individuals’ perceptions of information system usage on their attitudes, behavioural intentions and actual use of such a system.

  2. Modelling Technology for Building Fire Scene with Virtual Geographic Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Y.; Zhao, L.; Wei, M.; Zhang, H.; Liu, W.

    2017-09-01

    Building fire is a risky activity that can lead to disaster and massive destruction. The management and disposal of building fire has always attracted much interest from researchers. Integrated Virtual Geographic Environment (VGE) is a good choice for building fire safety management and emergency decisions, in which a more real and rich fire process can be computed and obtained dynamically, and the results of fire simulations and analyses can be much more accurate as well. To modelling building fire scene with VGE, the application requirements and modelling objective of building fire scene were analysed in this paper. Then, the four core elements of modelling building fire scene (the building space environment, the fire event, the indoor Fire Extinguishing System (FES) and the indoor crowd) were implemented, and the relationship between the elements was discussed also. Finally, with the theory and framework of VGE, the technology of building fire scene system with VGE was designed within the data environment, the model environment, the expression environment, and the collaborative environment as well. The functions and key techniques in each environment are also analysed, which may provide a reference for further development and other research on VGE.

  3. MODELING AND OPTIMIZATION OF THE AEROCONCRETE TECHNOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhukov Aleksey Dmitrievich

    2012-07-01

    Selection of the appropriate composition and optimal technological parameters is performed with the help of G-BAT-2011 software programme developed at MSUCE. The software is based on the methodology that is based on complete factorial experiments, experiments based on fractional replicates and testing of all essential statistical hypotheses. Linear, incomplete quadratic and quadratic equations generated as a result of experiments make it possible to design a model that represents natural processes in the adequate manner. The model is analytically optimized and interpreted thereafter.

  4. Modeling of processing technologies in food industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korotkov, V. G.; Sagitov, R. F.; Popov, V. P.; Bachirov, V. D.; Akhmadieva, Z. R.; TSirkaeva, E. A.

    2018-03-01

    Currently, the society is facing an urgent need to solve the problems of nutrition (products with increased nutrition value) and to develop energy-saving technologies for food products. A mathematical modeling of heat and mass transfer of polymer materials in the extruder is rather successful these days. Mathematical description of movement and heat exchange during extrusion of gluten-protein-starch-containing material similar to pasta dough in its structure, were taken as a framework for the mathematical model presented in this paper.

  5. Modeling the choice to switch from fuelwood to electricity. Implications for giant panda habitat conservation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    An, Li; Liu, Jianguo; Linderman, Marc A. [Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University, 13 Natural Resources Building, 48824 East Lansing, MI (United States); Lupi, Frank [Departments of Agricultural Economics and Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University, 213F Agriculture Hall, 48824 East Lansing, MI (United States); Huang, Jinyan [Wolong Nature Reserve Administration, Wenchuan County, 623002 Sichuan Province (China)

    2002-09-01

    Despite its status as a nature reserve, Wolong Nature Reserve (China) has experienced continued loss of giant panda habitat due to human activities such as fuelwood collection. Electricity, though available throughout Wolong, has not replaced fuelwood as an energy source. We used stated preference data obtained from in-person interviews to estimate a random utility model of the choice of adopting electricity for cooking and heating. Willingness to switch to electricity was explained by demographic and electricity factors (price, voltage, and outage frequency). In addition to price, non-price factors such as voltage and outage frequency significantly affect the demand. Thus, lowering electricity prices and increasing electricity quality would encourage local residents to switch from fuelwood to electricity and should be considered in the mix of policies to promote conservation of panda habitat.

  6. Modeling the choice to switch from fuelwood to electricity. Implications for giant panda habitat conservation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An, Li; Liu, Jianguo; Linderman, Marc A.; Lupi, Frank; Huang, Jinyan

    2002-01-01

    Despite its status as a nature reserve, Wolong Nature Reserve (China) has experienced continued loss of giant panda habitat due to human activities such as fuelwood collection. Electricity, though available throughout Wolong, has not replaced fuelwood as an energy source. We used stated preference data obtained from in-person interviews to estimate a random utility model of the choice of adopting electricity for cooking and heating. Willingness to switch to electricity was explained by demographic and electricity factors (price, voltage, and outage frequency). In addition to price, non-price factors such as voltage and outage frequency significantly affect the demand. Thus, lowering electricity prices and increasing electricity quality would encourage local residents to switch from fuelwood to electricity and should be considered in the mix of policies to promote conservation of panda habitat

  7. Functional forms and price elasticities in a discrete continuous choice model of the residential water demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vásquez Lavín, F. A.; Hernandez, J. I.; Ponce, R. D.; Orrego, S. A.

    2017-07-01

    During recent decades, water demand estimation has gained considerable attention from scholars. From an econometric perspective, the most used functional forms include log-log and linear specifications. Despite the advances in this field and the relevance for policymaking, little attention has been paid to the functional forms used in these estimations, and most authors have not provided justifications for their selection of functional forms. A discrete continuous choice model of the residential water demand is estimated using six functional forms (log-log, full-log, log-quadratic, semilog, linear, and Stone-Geary), and the expected consumption and price elasticity are evaluated. From a policy perspective, our results highlight the relevance of functional form selection for both the expected consumption and price elasticity.

  8. Physical microscopic free-choice model in the framework of a Darwinian approach to quantum mechanics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baladron, Carlos [Departamento de Fisica Teorica, Atomica y Optica, Universidad de Valladolid, E-47011, Valladolid (Spain)

    2017-06-15

    A compatibilistic model of free choice for a fundamental particle is built within a general framework that explores the possibility that quantum mechanics be the emergent result of generalised Darwinian evolution acting on the abstract landscape of possible physical theories. The central element in this approach is a probabilistic classical Turing machine -basically an information processor plus a randomiser- methodologically associated with every fundamental particle. In this scheme every system acts not under a general law, but as a consequence of the command of a particular, evolved algorithm. This evolved programme enables the particle to algorithmically anticipate possible future world configurations in information space, and as a consequence, without altering the natural forward causal order in physical space, to incorporate elements to the decision making procedure that are neither purely random nor strictly in the past, but in a possible future. (copyright 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim)

  9. ENVIRONMENTAL TECHNOLOGY VERIFICATION REPORT LASER TOUCH AND TECHNOLOGIES, LLC LASER TOUCH MODEL LT-B512

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Environmental Technology Verification report discusses the technology and performance of Laser Touch model LT-B512 targeting device manufactured by Laser Touch and Technologies, LLC, for manual spray painting operations. The relative transfer efficiency (TE) improved an avera...

  10. Residential location choice of knowledge-workers: The role of amenities, workplace and lifestyle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frenkel, Amnon; Bendit, Edward; Kaplan, Sigal

    2013-01-01

    This study investigates the residential location choice of knowledge-workers at the intra-metropolitan level by applying discrete choice models. The models represent housing choices of 833 knowledge-workers in high-technology and financial services and analyze the relative importance of lifestyle...

  11. Choice Model and Influencing Factor Analysis of Travel Mode for Migrant Workers: Case Study in Xi’an, China

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Hong; Gan, Zuo-xian; He, Yu-ting

    2015-01-01

    Based on the basic theory and methods of disaggregate choice model, the influencing factors in travel mode choice for migrant workers are analyzed, according to 1366 data samples of Xi’an migrant workers. Walking, bus, subway, and taxi are taken as the alternative parts of travel modes for migrant workers, and a multinomial logit (MNL) model of travel mode for migrant workers is set up. The validity of the model is verified by the hit rate, and the hit rates of four travel modes are all great...

  12. A robotics-based approach to modeling of choice reaching experiments on visual attention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soeren eStrauss

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a robotics-based model for choice reaching experiments on visual attention. In these experiments participants were asked to make rapid reach movements towards a target in an odd-colour search task, i.e. reaching for a green square among red squares and vice versa (e.g. Song & Nakayama, 2008. Interestingly these studies found that in a high number of trials movements were initially directed towards a distractor and only later were adjusted towards the target. These curved trajectories occurred particularly frequently when the target in the directly preceding trial had a different colour (priming effect. Our model is embedded in a closed-loop control of a LEGO robot arm aiming to mimic these reach movements. The model is based on our earlier work which suggests that target selection in visual search is implemented through parallel interactions between competitive and cooperative processes in the brain (Heinke & Backhaus, 2011; Heinke & Humphreys, 2003. To link this model with the control of the robot arm we implemented a topological representation of movement parameters following the dynamic field theory (Erlhagen & Schoener, 2002. The robot arm is able to mimic the results of the odd-colour search task including the priming effect and also generates human-like trajectories with a bell-shaped velocity profile. Theoretical implications and predictions are discussed in the paper.

  13. Hybrid choice model to disentangle the effect of awareness from attitudes: Application test of soft measures in medium size city

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sottile, Eleonora; Meloni, Italo; Cherchi, Elisabetta

    2017-01-01

    ), carried out with the purpose of promoting the use of the light rail in Park and Ride mode. To account for all these effects in the choice between car and Park and Ride we estimate a Hybrid Choice Model where the discrete choice structure allows us to estimate the effect of awareness of environment......The need to reduce private vehicle use has led to the development of soft measures aimed at re-educating car users through information processes that raise their awareness about the benefits of environmentally friendly modes, encouraging them to voluntarily change their travel choice behaviour...... (level of services characteristics being equal). It has been observed that these measures can produce enduring changes, being the result of mindful decisions. It is important then to try and understand what contributes to shape individuals’ preferences in order to be able to define the best policy...

  14. Multiobjective constraints for climate model parameter choices: Pragmatic Pareto fronts in CESM1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langenbrunner, B.; Neelin, J. D.

    2017-09-01

    Global climate models (GCMs) are examples of high-dimensional input-output systems, where model output is a function of many variables, and an update in model physics commonly improves performance in one objective function (i.e., measure of model performance) at the expense of degrading another. Here concepts from multiobjective optimization in the engineering literature are used to investigate parameter sensitivity and optimization in the face of such trade-offs. A metamodeling technique called cut high-dimensional model representation (cut-HDMR) is leveraged in the context of multiobjective optimization to improve GCM simulation of the tropical Pacific climate, focusing on seasonal precipitation, column water vapor, and skin temperature. An evolutionary algorithm is used to solve for Pareto fronts, which are surfaces in objective function space along which trade-offs in GCM performance occur. This approach allows the modeler to visualize trade-offs quickly and identify the physics at play. In some cases, Pareto fronts are small, implying that trade-offs are minimal, optimal parameter value choices are more straightforward, and the GCM is well-functioning. In all cases considered here, the control run was found not to be Pareto-optimal (i.e., not on the front), highlighting an opportunity for model improvement through objectively informed parameter selection. Taylor diagrams illustrate that these improvements occur primarily in field magnitude, not spatial correlation, and they show that specific parameter updates can improve fields fundamental to tropical moist processes—namely precipitation and skin temperature—without significantly impacting others. These results provide an example of how basic elements of multiobjective optimization can facilitate pragmatic GCM tuning processes.

  15. Using metro smart card data to model location choice of after-work activities: An application to Shanghai

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang, Y.; Correia, G.H.D.A.; Romph, E. de; Timmermans, H.J.P.H.

    2017-01-01

    A location choice model explains how travellers choose their trip destinations especially for those activities which are flexible in space and time. The model is usually estimated using travel survey data; however, little is known about how to use smart card data (SCD) for this purpose in a public

  16. Patterns of Reinforcement and the Essential Value of Brands: II. Evaluation of a Model of Consumer Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Ji; Foxall, Gordon R.; Doyle, John R.

    2012-01-01

    We employ a behavioral-economic equation put forward by Hursh and Silberberg (2008) to explain human consumption behavior among substitutable food brands, applying a consumer-choice model--the behavioral perspective model (BPM; Foxall, 1990/2004, 2005). In this study, we apply the behavioral-economic equation to human economic consumption data. We…

  17. The episodic random utility model unifies time trade-off and discrete choice approaches in health state valuation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B.M. Craig (Benjamin); J.J. van Busschbach (Jan)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: To present an episodic random utility model that unifies time trade-off and discrete choice approaches in health state valuation. METHODS: First, we introduce two alternative random utility models (RUMs) for health preferences: the episodic RUM and the more common

  18. Multiphase flow models for hydraulic fracturing technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osiptsov, Andrei A.

    2017-10-01

    The technology of hydraulic fracturing of a hydrocarbon-bearing formation is based on pumping a fluid with particles into a well to create fractures in porous medium. After the end of pumping, the fractures filled with closely packed proppant particles create highly conductive channels for hydrocarbon flow from far-field reservoir to the well to surface. The design of the hydraulic fracturing treatment is carried out with a simulator. Those simulators are based on mathematical models, which need to be accurate and close to physical reality. The entire process of fracture placement and flowback/cleanup can be conventionally split into the following four stages: (i) quasi-steady state effectively single-phase suspension flow down the wellbore, (ii) particle transport in an open vertical fracture, (iii) displacement of fracturing fluid by hydrocarbons from the closed fracture filled with a random close pack of proppant particles, and, finally, (iv) highly transient gas-liquid flow in a well during cleanup. The stage (i) is relatively well described by the existing hydralics models, while the models for the other three stages of the process need revisiting and considerable improvement, which was the focus of the author’s research presented in this review paper. For stage (ii), we consider the derivation of a multi-fluid model for suspension flow in a narrow vertical hydraulic fracture at moderate Re on the scale of fracture height and length and also the migration of particles across the flow on the scale of fracture width. At the stage of fracture cleanaup (iii), a novel multi-continua model for suspension filtration is developed. To provide closure relationships for permeability of proppant packings to be used in this model, a 3D direct numerical simulation of single phase flow is carried out using the lattice-Boltzmann method. For wellbore cleanup (iv), we present a combined 1D model for highly-transient gas-liquid flow based on the combination of multi-fluid and

  19. A model technology transfer program for independent operators: Kansas Technology Transfer Model (KTTM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoeling, L.G.

    1993-09-01

    This report describes the development and testing of the Kansas Technology Transfer Model (KTTM) which is to be utilized as a regional model for the development of other technology transfer programs for independent operators throughout oil-producing regions in the US. It describes the linkage of the regional model with a proposed national technology transfer plan, an evaluation technique for improving and assessing the model, and the methodology which makes it adaptable on a regional basis. The report also describes management concepts helpful in managing a technology transfer program. The original Tertiary Oil Recovery Project (TORP) activities, upon which the KTTM is based, were developed and tested for Kansas and have proved to be effective in assisting independent operators in utilizing technology. Through joint activities of TORP and the Kansas Geological Survey (KGS), the KTTM was developed and documented for application in other oil-producing regions. During the course of developing this model, twelve documents describing the implementation of the KTTM were developed as deliverables to DOE. These include: (1) a problem identification (PI) manual describing the format and results of six PI workshops conducted in different areas of Kansas, (2) three technology workshop participant manuals on advanced waterflooding, reservoir description, and personal computer applications, (3) three technology workshop instructor manuals which provides instructor material for all three workshops, (4) three technologies were documented as demonstration projects which included reservoir management, permeability modification, and utilization of a liquid-level acoustic measuring device, (5) a bibliography of all literature utilized in the documents, and (6) a document which describes the KTTM.

  20. Forced Response Prediction of Turbine Blades with Flexible Dampers: The Impact of Engineering Modelling Choices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiara Gastaldi

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on flexible friction dampers (or “strips” mounted on the underside of adjacent turbine blade platforms for sealing and damping purposes. A key parameter to ensure a robust and trustworthy design is the correct prediction of the maximum frequency shift induced by the strip damper coupling adjacent blades. While this topic has been extensively addressed on rigid friction dampers, both experimentally and numerically, no such investigation is available as far as flexible dampers are concerned. This paper builds on the authors’ prior experience with rigid dampers to investigate the peculiarities and challenges of a robust dynamic model of blade-strips systems. The starting point is a numerical tool implementing state-of-the-art techniques for the efficient solution of the nonlinear equations, e.g., multi-harmonic balance method with coupled static solution and state-of-the-art contact elements. The full step-by-step modelling process is here retraced and upgraded to take into account the damper flexibility: for each step, key modelling choices (e.g., mesh size, master nodes selection, contact parameters which may affect the predicted response are addressed. The outcome is a series of guidelines which will help the designer assign numerical predictions the proper level of trust and outline a much-needed experimental campaign.

  1. Increasing reach by offering choices: Results from an innovative model for statewide services for smoking cessation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, Paula A; Schillo, Barbara A; Kerr, Amy N; Lien, Rebecca K; Saul, Jessie; Dreher, Marietta; Lachter, Randi B

    2016-10-01

    Although state quitlines provide free telephone counseling and often include nicotine replacement therapy (NRT), reach remains limited (1-2% in most states). More needs to be done to engage all smokers in the quitting process. A possible strategy is to offer choices of cessation services through quitlines and to reduce registration barriers. In March 2014, ClearWay Minnesota SM implemented a new model for QUITPLAN® Services, the state's population-wide cessation services. Tobacco users could choose the QUITPLAN® Helpline or one or more Individual QUITPLAN® Services (NRT starter kit, text messaging, email program, or quit guide). The program website was redesigned, online enrollment was added, and a new advertising campaign was created and launched. In 2014-2015, we evaluated whether these changes increased reach. We also assessed quit attempts, quit outcomes, predictors of 30-day abstinence, and average cost per quit via a seven-month follow-up survey. Between March 2014-February 2015, 15,861 unique tobacco users registered, which was a 169% increase over calendar year 2013. The majority of participants made a quit attempt (83.7%). Thirty-day point prevalence abstinence rates (responder rates) were 26.1% for QUITPLAN Services overall, 29.6% for the QUITPLAN Helpline, and 25.5% for Individual QUITPLAN Services. Several variables predicted quit outcomes, including receiving only one call from the Helpline and using both the Helpline and the NRT starter kit. Providing greater choice of cessation services and reducing registration barriers have the potential to engage more tobacco users, foster more quit attempts, and ultimately lead to long-term cessation and reductions in prevalence. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Diffusion model for one-choice reaction-time tasks and the cognitive effects of sleep deprivation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratcliff, Roger; Van Dongen, Hans P A

    2011-07-05

    One-choice reaction-time (RT) tasks are used in many domains, including assessments of motor vehicle driving and assessments of the cognitive/behavioral consequences of sleep deprivation. In such tasks, subjects are asked to respond when they detect the onset of a stimulus; the dependent variable is RT. We present a cognitive model for one-choice RT tasks that uses a one-boundary diffusion process to represent the accumulation of stimulus information. When the accumulated evidence reaches a decision criterion, a response is initiated. This model is distinct in accounting for the RT distributions observed for one-choice RT tasks, which can have long tails that have not been accurately captured by earlier cognitive modeling approaches. We show that the model explains performance on a brightness-detection task (a "simple RT task") and on a psychomotor vigilance test. The latter is used extensively to examine the clinical and behavioral effects of sleep deprivation. For the brightness-detection task, the model explains the behavior of RT distributions as a function of brightness. For the psychomotor vigilance test, it accounts for lapses in performance under conditions of sleep deprivation and for changes in the shapes of RT distributions over the course of sleep deprivation. The model also successfully maps the rate of accumulation of stimulus information onto independently derived predictions of alertness. The model is a unified, mechanistic account of one-choice RT under conditions of sleep deprivation.

  3. The agony of choice: different empirical mortality models lead to sharply different future forest dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bircher, Nicolas; Cailleret, Maxime; Bugmann, Harald

    2015-07-01

    Dynamic models are pivotal for projecting forest dynamics in a changing climate, from the local to the global scale. They encapsulate the processes of tree population dynamics with varying resolution. Yet, almost invariably, tree mortality is modeled based on simple, theoretical assumptions that lack a physiological and/or empirical basis. Although this has been widely criticized and a growing number of empirically derived alternatives are available, they have not been tested systematically in models of forest dynamics. We implemented an inventory-based and a tree-ring-based mortality routine in the forest gap model ForClim v3.0. We combined these routines with a stochastic and a deterministic approach for the determination of tree status (alive vs. dead). We tested the four new model versions for two Norway spruce forests in the Swiss Alps, one of which was managed (inventory time series spanning 72 years) and the other was unmanaged (41 years). Furthermore, we ran long-term simulations (-400 years) into the future under three climate scenarios to test model behavior under changing environmental conditions. The tests against inventory data showed an excellent match of simulated basal area and stem numbers at the managed site and a fair agreement at the unmanaged site for three of the four empirical mortality models, thus rendering the choice of one particular model difficult. However, long-term simulations under current climate revealed very different behavior of the mortality models in terms of simulated changes of basal area and stem numbers, both in timing and magnitude, thus indicating high sensitivity of simulated forest dynamics to assumptions on tree mortality. Our results underpin the potential of using empirical mortality routines in forest gap models. However, further tests are needed that span other climatic conditions and mixed forests. Short-term simulations to benchmark model behavior against empirical data are insufficient; long-term tests are

  4. THE INFLUENCE OF MATHEMATICAL THINKING ON CAREER PATH CHOICE FOR GRADUATES OF MANAGEMENT FACULTY AT UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY IN CZÊSTOCHOWA

    OpenAIRE

    Ewa £adyga; Marek£adyga

    2014-01-01

    Difficult subjects in the course of study may have beneficial influence on future life of graduates. Authors of the article are pointing out attention on connections that exist between teaching mathematics and choice of career path for graduates of Management Faculty AT University of Technology in Czêstochowa. In first part of the article is briefly presenting an influence of mathematical thinking on growth of various civilizations. Than focus in turned on benefits of mathematical thinking, p...

  5. A linear programming model of diet choice of free-living beavers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nolet, BA; VanderVeer, PJ; Evers, EGJ; Ottenheim, MM

    1995-01-01

    Linear programming has been remarkably successful in predicting the diet choice of generalist herbivores. We used this technique to test the diet choice of free-living beavers (Castor fiber) in the Biesbosch (The Netherlands) under different Foraging goals, i.e. maximization of intake of energy,

  6. Memory-Based Simple Heuristics as Attribute Substitution: Competitive Tests of Binary Choice Inference Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honda, Hidehito; Matsuka, Toshihiko; Ueda, Kazuhiro

    2017-01-01

    Some researchers on binary choice inference have argued that people make inferences based on simple heuristics, such as recognition, fluency, or familiarity. Others have argued that people make inferences based on available knowledge. To examine the boundary between heuristic and knowledge usage, we examine binary choice inference processes in…

  7. Effectiveness criteria in school effectiveness studies: Further research on the choice of a multivariate model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Maeyer, S.; van den Bergh, H.; Rymenans, R.; Van Petegem, P.; Rijlaarsdam, G.

    2010-01-01

    In order to ascertain which school characteristics can explain the differences in effectiveness between schools, important methodological choices have to be made in school effectiveness research. One of these choices relates to the criterion or criteria the researcher wishes to use to compare

  8. Experimental and computational models of neurite extension at a choice point in response to controlled diffusive gradients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Catig, G. C.; Figueroa, S.; Moore, M. J.

    2015-08-01

    Ojective. Axons are guided toward desired targets through a series of choice points that they navigate by sensing cues in the cellular environment. A better understanding of how microenvironmental factors influence neurite growth during development can inform strategies to address nerve injury. Therefore, there is a need for biomimetic models to systematically investigate the influence of guidance cues at such choice points. Approach. We ran an adapted in silico biased turning axon growth model under the influence of nerve growth factor (NGF) and compared the results to corresponding in vitro experiments. We examined if growth simulations were predictive of neurite population behavior at a choice point. We used a biphasic micropatterned hydrogel system consisting of an outer cell restrictive mold that enclosed a bifurcated cell permissive region and placed a well near a bifurcating end to allow proteins to diffuse and form a gradient. Experimental diffusion profiles in these constructs were used to validate a diffusion computational model that utilized experimentally measured diffusion coefficients in hydrogels. The computational diffusion model was then used to establish defined soluble gradients within the permissive region of the hydrogels and maintain the profiles in physiological ranges for an extended period of time. Computational diffusion profiles informed the neurite growth model, which was compared with neurite growth experiments in the bifurcating hydrogel constructs. Main results. Results indicated that when applied to the constrained choice point geometry, the biased turning model predicted experimental behavior closely. Results for both simulated and in vitro neurite growth studies showed a significant chemoattractive response toward the bifurcated end containing an NGF gradient compared to the control, though some neurites were found in the end with no NGF gradient. Significance. The integrated model of neurite growth we describe will allow

  9. A Bayesian random effects discrete-choice model for resource selection: Population-level selection inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, D.L.; Johnson, D.; Griffith, B.

    2006-01-01

    Bayesian hierarchical discrete-choice model for resource selection can provide managers with 2 components of population-level inference: average population selection and variability of selection. Both components are necessary to make sound management decisions based on animal selection.

  10. Re-evaluating neonatal-age models for ungulates: does model choice affect survival estimates?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Troy W Grovenburg

    Full Text Available New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001-2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i

  11. Re-evaluating neonatal-age models for ungulates: does model choice affect survival estimates?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grovenburg, Troy W; Monteith, Kevin L; Jacques, Christopher N; Klaver, Robert W; DePerno, Christopher S; Brinkman, Todd J; Monteith, Kyle B; Gilbert, Sophie L; Smith, Joshua B; Bleich, Vernon C; Swanson, Christopher C; Jenks, Jonathan A

    2014-01-01

    New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001-2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly

  12. An agent-based simulation model of patient choice of health care providers in accountable care organizations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alibrahim, Abdullah; Wu, Shinyi

    2018-03-01

    Accountable care organizations (ACO) in the United States show promise in controlling health care costs while preserving patients' choice of providers. Understanding the effects of patient choice is critical in novel payment and delivery models like ACO that depend on continuity of care and accountability. The financial, utilization, and behavioral implications associated with a patient's decision to forego local health care providers for more distant ones to access higher quality care remain unknown. To study this question, we used an agent-based simulation model of a health care market composed of providers able to form ACO serving patients and embedded it in a conditional logit decision model to examine patients capable of choosing their care providers. This simulation focuses on Medicare beneficiaries and their congestive heart failure (CHF) outcomes. We place the patient agents in an ACO delivery system model in which provider agents decide if they remain in an ACO and perform a quality improving CHF disease management intervention. Illustrative results show that allowing patients to choose their providers reduces the yearly payment per CHF patient by $320, reduces mortality rates by 0.12 percentage points and hospitalization rates by 0.44 percentage points, and marginally increases provider participation in ACO. This study demonstrates a model capable of quantifying the effects of patient choice in a theoretical ACO system and provides a potential tool for policymakers to understand implications of patient choice and assess potential policy controls.

  13. Reduced impact of emotion on choice behavior in presymptomatic BACHD rats, a transgenic rodent model for Huntington Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adjeroud, Najia; Yagüe, Sara; Yu-Taeger, Libo; Bozon, Bruno; Leblanc-Veyrac, Pascale; Riess, Olaf; Allain, Philippe; Nguyen, Huu Phuc; Doyère, Valérie; El Massioui, Nicole

    2015-11-01

    Executive dysfunction and psychiatric symptoms are hallmarks of Huntington disease (HD), a neurodegenerative disorder genetically characterized by expanded CAG repeats in the HTT gene. Using the BACHD rat model of HD (97 CAG-CAA repeats), the present research seeks to characterize the progressive emergence of decision-making impairments in a rat version of the Iowa Gambling Task (RGT) and the impact of emotional modulation, whether positive or negative, on choice behavior. The choice efficiency shown both by WT rats (independent of their age) and the youngest BACHD rats (2 and 8months old) evidenced that they are able to integrate outcomes of past decisions to determine expected reward values for each option. However, 18months old BACHD rats made fewer choices during the RGT session and were less efficient in choosing advantageous options than younger animals. Presenting either chocolate pellets or electrical footshocks half-way through a second RGT session reduced exploratory activity (inefficient nose-poking) and choices with a weaker effect on BACHD animals than on WT. Choice efficiency was left intact in transgenic rats. Our results bring new knowledge on executive impairments and impact of emotional state on decision-making at different stages of the disease, increasing the face-validity of the BACHD rat model. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Renewable energy systems the choice and modeling of 100% renewable solutions

    CERN Document Server

    Lund, Henrik

    2009-01-01

    How can society quickly convert to renewable energy? Can worldwide energy needs ever be met through 100% renewable sources? The answers to these questions rest largely on the perception of choice in the energy arena. It is of pivotal importance that engineers, researchers and policymakers understand what choices are available, and reasonable, when considering the design and deployment of new energy systems. The mission of this new book, written by one of the world's foremost experts in renewable power, is to arm these professionals with the tools and methodologies necessary to make smart choic

  15. Modeling mental health information preferences during the early adult years: a discrete choice conjoint experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Charles E; Walker, John R; Eastwood, John D; Westra, Henny; Rimas, Heather; Chen, Yvonne; Marcus, Madalyn; Swinson, Richard P; Bracken, Keyna; The Mobilizing Minds Research Group

    2014-04-01

    Although most young adults with mood and anxiety disorders do not seek treatment, those who are better informed about mental health problems are more likely to use services. The authors used conjoint analysis to model strategies for providing information about anxiety and depression to young adults. Participants (N = 1,035) completed 17 choice tasks presenting combinations of 15 four-level attributes of a mental health information strategy. Latent class analysis yielded 3 segments. The virtual segment (28.7%) preferred working independently on the Internet to obtain information recommended by young adults who had experienced anxiety or depression. Self-assessment options and links to service providers were more important to this segment. Conventional participants (30.1%) preferred books or pamphlets recommended by a doctor, endorsed by mental health professionals, and used with a doctor's support. They would devote more time to information acquisition but were less likely to use Internet social networking options. Brief sources of information were more important to the low interest segment (41.2%). All segments preferred information about alternative ways to reduce anxiety or depression rather than psychological approaches or medication. Maximizing the use of information requires active and passive approaches delivered through old-media (e.g., books) and new-media (e.g., Internet) channels.

  16. Age-Related Parenting Education: Model Development and Application to an Emerging Family Constellation - Single-by-Choice Mothers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holle, Kimberly Ann

    The purpose of this paper is twofold: (1) to describe an adaptation of the Schaefer Circumplex Model to age-related parenting theory and techniques, and (2) to illustrate its application in relation to the emerging numbers of single-by-choice mothers. The method described superimposes both a child's and a parent's cognitive and psychosocial…

  17. Modeling individual and collective opinion in online social networks: drivers of choice behavior and effects of marketing interventions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koster, S.E.; Langley, D.J.

    2013-01-01

    We investigate factors influencing choice behavior in online social networks. We use twitter data from a Dutch television talent show. In study one, we implement a nested conditional logit model with latent classes. We find heterogeneous effects. For two latent classes, cognitive factors most

  18. Studi Model Penerimaan Tehnologi (Technology Acceptance Model) Novice Accountant

    OpenAIRE

    Rustiana, Rustiana

    2006-01-01

    This study investigates adoption or application of behavior information technologyacceptance. Davis' Technology Acceptance Model is employed to explain perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, and intention to use in information systems. The respondents were 228 accounting students in management information system. Data was collected by questionnaire and then analyzed by using linear regression analysis and independent t-test. The results are in line with most of the hypotheses, only hypo...

  19. A note on identification in discrete choice models with partial observability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; Ranjan, Abhishek

    2017-01-01

    distribution, while the perturbation m= (m1, … , mJ) is observed. The decision-maker chooses the alternative that yields the maximum random utility, which leads to a choice probability system m→ (Pr (1 | m) , … , Pr (J| m)). Previous research has shown that the choice probability system is identified from...... the observation of the relationship m→ Pr (1 | m). We show that the complete choice probability system is identified from observation of a relationship m→∑j=1sPr(j|m), for any sobserve the aggregate probability of a group of alternatives as it depends on m. This is relevant...... for applications where choices are observed aggregated into groups while prices and attributes vary at the level of individual alternatives....

  20. Uncertainty modeling process for semantic technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rommel N. Carvalho

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The ubiquity of uncertainty across application domains generates a need for principled support for uncertainty management in semantically aware systems. A probabilistic ontology provides constructs for representing uncertainty in domain ontologies. While the literature has been growing on formalisms for representing uncertainty in ontologies, there remains little guidance in the knowledge engineering literature for how to design probabilistic ontologies. To address the gap, this paper presents the Uncertainty Modeling Process for Semantic Technology (UMP-ST, a new methodology for modeling probabilistic ontologies. To explain how the methodology works and to verify that it can be applied to different scenarios, this paper describes step-by-step the construction of a proof-of-concept probabilistic ontology. The resulting domain model can be used to support identification of fraud in public procurements in Brazil. While the case study illustrates the development of a probabilistic ontology in the PR-OWL probabilistic ontology language, the methodology is applicable to any ontology formalism that properly integrates uncertainty with domain semantics.

  1. College Students' Technology Arc: A Model for Understanding Progress

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langer, Arthur; Knefelkamp, L. Lee

    2008-01-01

    This article introduces the Student Technology Arc, a model that evaluates college students 'technology literacy, or how they operate within an education system influenced by new technologies. Student progress is monitored through the Arc's 5 interdependent stages, which reflect growing technological maturity through levels of increasing cognitive…

  2. Keeping learning central: a model for implementing emerging technologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irmgard U. Willcockson

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Felt problem: Technology integration continues to be a challenge for health science faculty. While students expect emerging technologies to be used in the classroom, faculty members desire a strategic process to incorporate technology for the students’ benefit. Our solution: We have developed a model that provides faculty a strategy for integrating emerging technologies into the classroom. The model is grounded in student learning and may be applied to any technology. We present the model alongside examples from faculty who have used it to incorporate technology into their health sciences classrooms.

  3. Keeping learning central: a model for implementing emerging technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willcockson, Irmgard U; Phelps, Cynthia L

    2010-01-15

    FELT PROBLEM: Technology integration continues to be a challenge for health science faculty. While students expect emerging technologies to be used in the classroom, faculty members desire a strategic process to incorporate technology for the students' benefit. OUR SOLUTION: We have developed a model that provides faculty a strategy for integrating emerging technologies into the classroom. The model is grounded in student learning and may be applied to any technology. We present the model alongside examples from faculty who have used it to incorporate technology into their health sciences classrooms.

  4. Incorporating environmental attitudes in discrete choice models: an exploration of the utility of the awareness of consequences scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoyos, David; Mariel, Petr; Hess, Stephane

    2015-02-01

    Environmental economists are increasingly interested in better understanding how people cognitively organise their beliefs and attitudes towards environmental change in order to identify key motives and barriers that stimulate or prevent action. In this paper, we explore the utility of a commonly used psychometric scale, the awareness of consequences (AC) scale, in order to better understand stated choices. The main contribution of the paper is that it provides a novel approach to incorporate attitudinal information into discrete choice models for environmental valuation: firstly, environmental attitudes are incorporated using a reinterpretation of the classical AC scale recently proposed by Ryan and Spash (2012); and, secondly, attitudinal data is incorporated as latent variables under a hybrid choice modelling framework. This novel approach is applied to data from a survey conducted in the Basque Country (Spain) in 2008 aimed at valuing land-use policies in a Natura 2000 Network site. The results are relevant to policy-making because choice models that are able to accommodate underlying environmental attitudes may help in designing more effective environmental policies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. A joint model of mode and shipment size choice using the first generation of Commodity Flow Survey Public Use Microdata

    OpenAIRE

    Monique Stinson; Zahra Pourabdollahi; Vladimir Livshits; Kyunghwi Jeon; Sreevatsa Nippani; Haidong Zhu

    2017-01-01

    A behavior-based supply chain and freight transportation model was developed and implemented for the Maricopa Association of Governments (MAG) and Pima Association of Governments (PAG). This innovative, data-driven modeling system simulates commodity flows to, from and within Phoenix and Tucson Megaregion and is used for regional planning purposes. This paper details the logistics choice component of the system and describes the position and functioning of this component in the overall framew...

  6. Structural modelling of economic growth: Technological changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sukharev Oleg

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Neoclassical and Keynesian theories of economic growth assume the use of Cobb-Douglas modified functions and other aggregate econometric approaches to growth dynamics modelling. In that case explanations of economic growth are based on the logic of the used mathematical ratios often including the ideas about aggregated values change and factors change a priori. The idea of assessment of factor productivity is the fundamental one among modern theories of economic growth. Nevertheless, structural parameters of economic system, institutions and technological changes are practically not considered within known approaches, though the latter is reflected in the changing parameters of production function. At the same time, on the one hand, the ratio of structural elements determines the future value of the total productivity of the factors and, on the other hand, strongly influences the rate of economic growth and its mode of innovative dynamics. To put structural parameters of economic system into growth models with the possibility of assessment of such modes under conditions of interaction of new and old combinations is an essential step in the development of the theory of economic growth/development. It allows forming stimulation policy of economic growth proceeding from the structural ratios and relations recognized for this economic system. It is most convenient in such models to use logistic functions demonstrating the resource change for old and new combination within the economic system. The result of economy development depends on starting conditions, and on institutional parameters of velocity change of resource borrowing in favour of a new combination and creation of its own resource. Model registration of the resource is carried out through the idea of investments into new and old combinations.

  7. Promoting Sustainability through Investment in Building Information Modeling (BIM Technologies: A Design Company Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marius Reizgevičius

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this article is to enhance the understanding of how design companies perceive the benefits of Building Information Modeling (BIM technologies application. BIM is recognized in the literature as a (potentially powerful driver leading the construction sector towards sustainability. However, for design companies, the choice to invest in BIM technologies is basically an economic one. Specifically, a design company assesses economic benefits and efficiency improvements thanks to the application of BIM technologies. The article discusses the return on investments (ROI in BIM technologies and reviews ROI calculation methodologies proposed by other authors. In order to evaluate BIM return on investment correctly practical ROI calculations are carried out. Appropriate methods, together with the relevant variables for ROI calculation, are developed. The study allows for adjusting the calculation method making it more accurate and understandable using the Autodesk Revit based ROI calculation of the first year.

  8. Discrete Choice Model of Food Store Trips Using National Household Food Acquisition and Purchase Survey (FoodAPS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hillier, Amy; Smith, Tony E; Whiteman, Eliza D; Chrisinger, Benjamin W

    2017-09-27

    Where households across income levels shop for food is of central concern within a growing body of research focused on where people live relative to where they shop, what they purchase and eat, and how those choices influence the risk of obesity and chronic disease. We analyzed data from the National Household Food Acquisition and Purchase Survey (FoodAPS) using a conditional logit model to determine where participants shop for food to be prepared and eaten at home and how individual and household characteristics of food shoppers interact with store characteristics and distance from home in determining store choice. Store size, whether or not it was a full-service supermarket, and the driving distance from home to the store constituted the three significant main effects on store choice. Overall, participants were more likely to choose larger stores, conventional supermarkets rather than super-centers and other types of stores, and stores closer to home. Interaction effects show that participants receiving Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) were even more likely to choose larger stores. Hispanic participants were more likely than non-Hispanics to choose full-service supermarkets while White participants were more likely to travel further than non-Whites. This study demonstrates the value of explicitly spatial discrete choice models and provides evidence of national trends consistent with previous smaller, local studies.

  9. Discrete Choice Model of Food Store Trips Using National Household Food Acquisition and Purchase Survey (FoodAPS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amy Hillier

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Where households across income levels shop for food is of central concern within a growing body of research focused on where people live relative to where they shop, what they purchase and eat, and how those choices influence the risk of obesity and chronic disease. We analyzed data from the National Household Food Acquisition and Purchase Survey (FoodAPS using a conditional logit model to determine where participants shop for food to be prepared and eaten at home and how individual and household characteristics of food shoppers interact with store characteristics and distance from home in determining store choice. Store size, whether or not it was a full-service supermarket, and the driving distance from home to the store constituted the three significant main effects on store choice. Overall, participants were more likely to choose larger stores, conventional supermarkets rather than super-centers and other types of stores, and stores closer to home. Interaction effects show that participants receiving Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP were even more likely to choose larger stores. Hispanic participants were more likely than non-Hispanics to choose full-service supermarkets while White participants were more likely to travel further than non-Whites. This study demonstrates the value of explicitly spatial discrete choice models and provides evidence of national trends consistent with previous smaller, local studies.

  10. Attention to food and beverage advertisements as measured by eye-tracking technology and the food preferences and choices of youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velazquez, Cayley E; Pasch, Keryn E

    2014-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine how objective measures of attention to food/beverage advertising were associated with the unhealthy food/beverage preferences and choices of children and adolescents. A self-report survey and eye-tracking session were completed by 102 youth (mean age=11.6 years; 56.4% were white; 43.1% were female) between April and November 2010. Participants viewed 40 food/beverage advertisements on a computer and their eye movements were recorded. Objective attention measures included total viewing time, fixation length (time spent viewing characters/logos, unhealthy food/beverage items), and fixation count (number of times an individual stops to examine characters/logos, unhealthy food/beverage items). Food/beverage preferences and choices were measured by self-report. The preferences index summed responses to 12 questions measuring snack food and sugar-sweetened beverage preferences and the choices index summed responses to eight questions measuring consumption of snack foods and sugar-sweetened beverages. Regression models examined whether attention to food/beverage advertising was associated with food preferences and choices, controlling for sex, age, and body mass index z score. The length of time and number of times participants looked at unhealthy food and beverage items within advertisements were each significantly associated with unhealthy food/beverage preferences of youth (Pfood/beverage choices. Research with larger samples is needed to more fully understand the role of attention. Future research should also examine the association between attention to advertising and purchase requests, given the important role of parents in the decision-making process surrounding food choice. Copyright © 2014 Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Manipulation of choice behavior

    OpenAIRE

    Manzini, Paola; Mariotti, Marco; Tyson, Christopher J.

    2011-01-01

    We introduce and study the problem of manipulation of choice behavior. In a class of two-stage models of decision making, with the agent's choices determined by three "psychological variables," we imagine that a subset of these variables can be selected by a "manipulator." To what extent does this confer control of the agent's behavior? Within the specified framework, which overlaps with two existing models of choice under cognitive constraints, we provide a complete answer to this question.

  12. Mode choice models' ability to express intention to change travel behaviour considering non-compensatory rules and latent variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nobuhiro Sanko

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Disaggregate behaviour choice models have been improved in many aspects, but they are rarely evaluated from the viewpoint of their ability to express intention to change travel behaviour. This study compared various models, including objective and latent models and compensatory and non-compensatory decision-making models. Latent models contain latent factors calculated using the LISREL (linear structural relations model. Non-compensatory models are based on a lexicographic-semiorder heuristic. This paper proposes ‘probability increment’ and ‘joint probability increment’ as indicators for evaluating the ability of these models to express intention to change travel behaviour. The application to commuting travel data in the Chukyo metropolitan area in Japan showed that the appropriate non-compensatory and latent models outperform other models.

  13. Energy technologies and energy efficiency in economic modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klinge Jacobsen, Henrik

    1998-01-01

    This paper discusses different approaches to incorporating energy technologies and technological development in energy-economic models. Technological development is a very important issue in long-term energy demand projections and in environmental analyses. Different assumptions on technological...... technological development. This paper examines the effect on aggregate energy efficiency of using technological models to describe a number of specific technologies and of incorporating these models in an economic model. Different effects from the technology representation are illustrated. Vintage effects...... illustrates the dependence of average efficiencies and productivity on capacity utilisation rates. In the long run regulation induced by environmental policies are also very important for the improvement of aggregate energy efficiency in the energy supply sector. A Danish policy to increase the share...

  14. Influencing Mechanism of Potential Factors on Passengers’ Long-Distance Travel Mode Choices Based on Structural Equation Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yun Wang

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the public transportation users’ preferences to long-distance travel modes would contribute to reasonable developing policies and resource allocation. This paper aims to explore the influencing mechanism of potential factors on the long-distance travel mode choice. A survey was conducted to collect the data. The analysis of variance (ANOVA approach was applied to analyze the correlation relationship between potential factors and travel mode choice behavior. The results showed that, except gender, service demand for safety and departure time, all of the other factors significantly influenced the travel mode choice behavior. Specifically, passengers with higher education level and income level were more likely to choose high-speed railway (HSR and plane; passengers caring about travel expense were more likely to choose ordinary train, whereas plane and HSR may be chosen more by passengers caring more about comfort, punctuality and efficiency; the more passengers were satisfied with travel modes’ service performance, the more they would be likely to choose them; the most competitive distance ranges for coach, ordinary train, HSR and plane were below 500 km, 500–1000 km, 500–1500 km and over 1500 km, respectively. Besides, the structural equation modeling (SEM technique was applied to investigate the influencing mechanism of factors on the long-distance travel mode choice. The results revealed that travel distance was the most significant variable directly influencing passengers’ mode choices, followed by the service demand, performance evaluation, and personal attributes. Furthermore, personal attributes were verified to have an indirect effect on travel mode choice behavior by significantly affecting the service demand and performance evaluation.

  15. Modeling the Equilibrium Bus Line Choice Behavior and Transit System Design with Oblivious Users

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuan-Lin Zhao

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In most of transportation literature, users are assumed to be perfectly rational in minimizing their own travel costs or perceived travel costs. However, users may not be perfectly rational in implementing their choices in reality. There exists a kind of boundedly rational users, that is, oblivious users. These oblivious users make their route choices by simple criteria, for example, selecting the shortest (or the most direct route only based on physical distance or simply following routes recommended by a GPS system. This paper investigates how the existence of oblivious users affects the equilibrium bus line choice behavior in a public transit system. And we propose a method to design a more realistic system.

  16. Enhanced surrogate models for statistical design exploiting space mapping technology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koziel, Slawek; Bandler, John W.; Mohamed, Achmed S.

    2005-01-01

    We present advances in microwave and RF device modeling exploiting Space Mapping (SM) technology. We propose new SM modeling formulations utilizing input mappings, output mappings, frequency scaling and quadratic approximations. Our aim is to enhance circuit models for statistical analysis...

  17. Spoilt for choice: A critical review on the chemical and biological assessment of current wastewater treatment technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasse, Carsten; Stalter, Daniel; Schulte-Oehlmann, Ulrike; Oehlmann, Jörg; Ternes, Thomas A

    2015-12-15

    The knowledge we have gained in recent years on the presence and effects of compounds discharged by wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) brings us to a point where we must question the appropriateness of current water quality evaluation methodologies. An increasing number of anthropogenic chemicals is detected in treated wastewater and there is increasing evidence of adverse environmental effects related to WWTP discharges. It has thus become clear that new strategies are needed to assess overall quality of conventional and advanced treated wastewaters. There is an urgent need for multidisciplinary approaches combining expertise from engineering, analytical and environmental chemistry, (eco)toxicology, and microbiology. This review summarizes the current approaches used to assess treated wastewater quality from the chemical and ecotoxicological perspective. Discussed chemical approaches include target, non-target and suspect analysis, sum parameters, identification and monitoring of transformation products, computational modeling as well as effect directed analysis and toxicity identification evaluation. The discussed ecotoxicological methodologies encompass in vitro testing (cytotoxicity, genotoxicity, mutagenicity, endocrine disruption, adaptive stress response activation, toxicogenomics) and in vivo tests (single and multi species, biomonitoring). We critically discuss the benefits and limitations of the different methodologies reviewed. Additionally, we provide an overview of the current state of research regarding the chemical and ecotoxicological evaluation of conventional as well as the most widely used advanced wastewater treatment technologies, i.e., ozonation, advanced oxidation processes, chlorination, activated carbon, and membrane filtration. In particular, possible directions for future research activities in this area are provided. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. MODELING PROBABILISTIC CONFLICT OF TECHNOLOGICAL SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. B. Desyatov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Recently for the study of conflict increasingly used method of mathematical optical modeling. Its importance stems from the fact that experimental research such conflicts rather time-consuming and complex. However, existing approaches to the study of conflict do not take into account the stochastic nature of the systems, suffers from conceptual incompleteness. There is a need to develop models, algorithms and principles, in order to assess the conflict, to choose conflict resolution to ensure that not the worst of conditions. For stochastic technological systems as a utility function, we consider the probability of achieving a given objective. We assume that some system S1 is in conflict with the system S2, (SR2R К SR1R, if q(SR1R,SR2R

  19. Product with service, technology with business model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sakao, Tomohiko; McAloone, Tim C.

    2011-01-01

    Looking back over the last decade, the importance of an expanded understanding of engineering design has been shared within the engineering design community. Presented concepts and methods to support such expansion include Functional Product Development, Service Engineering, and Product/Service-S...... promising concept beyond PSS design; via an integrated development of technology and business model. This can be of particular interest for further research, especially due to its high freedom for designers.......Looking back over the last decade, the importance of an expanded understanding of engineering design has been shared within the engineering design community. Presented concepts and methods to support such expansion include Functional Product Development, Service Engineering, and Product....../Service-Systems (PSS) design. This paper first explains PSS design as a type of an expansion of the engineering design of a physical product. Secondly, it gives a review of PSS research and a projection of future research issues, also ranging out into untraditional fields of research. Finally, it presents a new...

  20. Values, Choices, Responsibilities: Thinking beyond the Scholarly Place of Ethics for the GIScience and Technology Profession and GIScience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey, Francis

    2014-01-01

    To help ethical issues gain traction in geographic information technology education, this article proposes that the education of GIScience and technology professionals go beyond abstract scholarly ethics to applied approaches based on practical wisdom. The main point for educators made in this paper is that applied ethics' focus on values,…

  1. Model of Dynamic Pricing for Two Parallels Flights with Multiple Fare Classes Based on Passenger Choice Behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad Rusdiansyah

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Airline revenue management (ARM is one of emerging topics in transportation logistics areas. This paper discusses a problem in ARM which is dynamic pricing for two parallel flights owned by the same airline. We extended the existing model on Joint Pricing Model for Parallel Flights under passenger choice behavior in the literature. We generalized the model to consider multiple full-fare class instead of only single full-fare class. Consequently, we have to define the seat allocation for each fare class beforehand. We have combined the joint pricing model and the model of nested Expected Marginal Seat Revenue (EMSR model. To solve this hybrid model, we have developed a dynamic programming-based algorithm. We also have conducted numerical experiments to show the behavior of our model. Our experiment results have showed that the expected revenue of both flights significantly induced by the proportion of the time flexible passengers and the number of allocated seat in each full-fare class. As managerial insights, our model has proved that there is a closed relationship between demand management, which is represented by the price of each fare class, and total expected revenue considering the passenger choice behavior.

  2. Effects of various cannabinoid ligands on choice behaviour in a rat model of gambling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gueye, Aliou B; Trigo, Jose M; Vemuri, Kiran V; Makriyannis, Alexandros; Le Foll, Bernard

    2016-04-01

    It is estimated that 0.6-1% of the population in the USA and Canada fulfil the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 5th ed. (DSM-5) criteria for gambling disorders (GD). To date, there are no approved pharmacological treatments for GD. The rat gambling task (rGT) is a recently developed rodent analogue of the Iowa gambling task in which rats are trained to associate four response holes with different magnitudes and probabilities of food pellet rewards and punishing time-out periods. Similar to healthy human volunteers, most rats adopt the optimal strategies (optimal group). However, a subset of animals show preference for the disadvantageous options (suboptimal group), mimicking the choice pattern of patients with GD. Here, we explored for the first time the effects of various cannabinoid ligands (WIN 55,212-2, AM 4113, AM 630 and URB 597) on the rGT. Administration of the cannabinoid agonist CB1/CB2 WIN 55,212-2 improved choice strategy and increased choice latency in the suboptimal group, but only increased perseverative behaviour, when punished, in the optimal group. Blockade of CB1 or CB2 receptors or inhibition of fatty-acid amide hydrolase did not affect rGT performance. These results suggest that stimulation of cannabinoid receptors could affect gambling choice behaviours differentially in some subgroups of subjects.

  3. Modeling demand for catastrophic flood risk insurance in Vietnam using choice experiments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brouwer, R.; Bui, T.; Tuan, T.; Magnussen, K.; Navrud, S.

    2014-01-01

    In a choice experiment, households in Vietnam are offered flood insurance to mitigate increasing catastrophic flood risks due to climate change. Participants are asked to choose their most preferred insurance policy given expected future flood and mortality risks, insurance cover and associated

  4. Testing a bioenergetics-based habitat choice model: bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus) responses to food availability and temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Using an automated shuttlebox system, we conducted patch choice experiments with 32, 8–12 g bluegill sunfish (Lepomis macrochirus) to test a behavioral energetics hypothesis of habitat choice. When patch temperature and food levels were held constant within patches but different between patches, we expected bluegill to choose patches that maximized growth based on the bioenergetic integration of food and temperature as predicted by a bioenergetics model. Alternative hypotheses were that bluegill may choose patches based only on food (optimal foraging) or temperature (behavioral thermoregulation). The behavioral energetics hypothesis was not a good predictor of short-term (from minutes to weeks) patch choice by bluegill; the behavioral thermoregulation hypothesis was the best predictor. In the short-term, food and temperature appeared to affect patch choice hierarchically; temperature was more important, although food can alter temperature preference during feeding periods. Over a 19-d experiment, mean temperatures occupied by fish offered low rations did decline as predicted by the behavioral energetics hypothesis, but the decline was less than 1.0 °C as opposed to a possible 5 °C decline. A short-term, bioenergetic response to food and temperature may be precluded by physiological costs of acclimation not considered explicitly in the behavioral energetics hypothesis.

  5. The Effect of Data Structure and Model Choices on MFA Results: A Comparison of Phosphorus Balances for Denmark and Austria

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klinglmair, Manfred; Zoboli, Ottavia; Laner, David

    2016-01-01

    Material Flow Analysis (MFA) studies for a particular substance often exist for several different countries or regions, but share a similar goal and scope. In direct comparisons of such regional resource budgets, the importance of the choices made in establishing an MFA system tends to be disrega......Material Flow Analysis (MFA) studies for a particular substance often exist for several different countries or regions, but share a similar goal and scope. In direct comparisons of such regional resource budgets, the importance of the choices made in establishing an MFA system tends...... to be disregarded. We identify and quantify the effects of choices made in system layout, data material and uncertainty assessment on the outcome of regional MFAs using two recent country-scale MFAs (of Denmark and Austria) of phosphorus as a case study. We highlight the differences in system boundaries...... and definition of flows and processes. We quantify types and choice of data sources; analyse the consistency of the data used by looking at the extent of data reconciliation, as a measure of model quality; quantify the effect of different approaches to uncertainty assessment; and show the influence...

  6. Suture Choice in Lumbar Dural Closure Contributes to Variation in Leak Pressures: Experimental Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghobrial, George M; Maulucci, Christopher M; Viereck, Matthew J; Beygi, Sara; Chitale, Ameet; Prasad, Srinivas; Jallo, Jack; Heller, Joshua; Sharan, Ashwini D; Harrop, James S

    2017-07-01

    Open-label laboratory investigational study; non-animal surgical simulation. The authors perform a comparison of dural closure strength in a durotomy simulator across 2 different suture materials. Incidental durotomy leading to persistent cerebrospinal fluid leak adds considerable morbidity to spinal procedures, often complicating routine elective lumbar spinal procedures. Using an experimental durotomy simulation, the authors compare the strength of closure using Gore-Tex with other suture types and sizes, using various closure techniques. A comparison of dural closures was performed through an analysis of the peak pressure at which leakage occurred from a standardized durotomy closure in an established cerebrospinal fluid repair model with a premade L3 laminectomy. Nurolon was compared with Gore-Tex sutures sizes (for Gore-Tex, CV-6/5-0 and CV-5/4-0 was compared with Nurolon 4-0, 5-0, and 6-0). Thirty-six trials were performed with Nurolon 4-0, 5-0, and 6-0, whereas 21 trials were performed for 4-0 and 5-0 Gore-Tex. The mean peak pressure at which fluid leakage was observed was 21 cm H2O for Nurolon and 34 cm H2O for Gore-Tex. Irrespective of suture choice, all trials were grouped by closure technique: running suture, locked continuous, and interrupted suture. No significant difference was noted between the groups. For each of the 3 trials groups by closure technique, running, locked continuous, and interrupted, Gore-Tex closures had a significantly higher peak pressure to failure. Interrupted Gore-Tex was significantly higher than Interrupted Nurolon (P=0.007), running Gore-Tex was significantly higher than running Nurolon (P=0.034), and locked Gore-Tex was significantly higher than locked Nurolon (P=0.014). Durotomy closure in the lumbar spine with Gore-Tex suture may be a reasonable option for providing a watertight closure. In this laboratory study, Gore-Tex suture provided watertight dural closures that withstood higher peak pressures.

  7. A user equilibrium, traffic assignment model of network route and parking lot choice, with search circuits and cruising flows

    OpenAIRE

    LEURENT, Fabien; BOUJNAH, Houda

    2014-01-01

    The paper provides a novel network model of parking and route choice. Parking supply is represented by parking type, management strategy including the fare, capacity and occupancy rate of parking lot, and network location, in relation to access routes along the roadway network. Trip demand is segmented according to origin-destination pair, the disposal of private parking facilities and the individual preferences for parking quality of service. Each traveller is assumed to make a two stage cho...

  8. Business modeling process for university’s technology transfer offices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marin Alexandru

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The present paper is devoted to analyze the appropriate recommendations to increase the effectiveness of technology transfer centers from Romanian National Network for Innovation and Technology Transfer - ReNITT, hosted by universities. The study is focused on the definition of a conceptual frame to develop specific business models, by the specialized compartments from technology/knowledge transfer entities, and using the specific instruments of business modeling process. The qualitative and quantitative analysis of the 8 steps scheduling of pairing the building blocks of the Business Models Canvas, corresponding to the specific technology transfer models, and taking into account the elements of the value chain of technology transfer and making connections with technology readiness level, allows a clarification of this relative “fuzzy” and complicated modeling process of university’s Technology Transfer Offices activities, gathering in a concentrated format all necessary information. According to their mission, objectives and strategies, universities decide upon a certain business model for the Technology Transfer Offices, adaptable to client segment and value proposition to attain, by the offered services portfolio. In conclusion, during their activities, Technology Transfer Offices identify, validate and exploit the opportunities originated from applicative research results, by “technology push” methods. Also, there are necessary specific competences (human and material to develop externally aware business models starting from real needs of the clients, by “market pull” techniques, that would contribute to enhance the endogenous innovation potential of firms.

  9. On the choice of structures of equipment for preliminary data processing for a data acquisition subsystem of the automation control system for controlling technological parameters of tokamak devices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bondarenko, I.M.; Gerasimov, V.P.; Mozin, I.V.; Repin, S.S.; Skosarev, V.A.

    1982-01-01

    The necessity is substantiated to use a complex approach to constructing measuring channels of data acquisition subsystems in automation control systems for controlling technological processes in tokamak thermonuclear installations including preliminary data processing equipment, incorporated devices and measuring converters, which enables to minimize the whole bulk of equipment units, while attaining the best metrological features of the channels. Some examples are given designing measuring channels for different kind of signals. Special attention is paid to the choice of structures of measuring channels for signals from sensors under high voltage isolated from the ground potential. It is found reasonable to use analog-time data conversion and optoelectronic isolating elements from the viewpoint of simplicity of apparatus, good manufacturing technology and adjusting measuring channels elements

  10. Using a novel alternative to drug choice in a human laboratory model of a cocaine binge: a game of chance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vosburg, Suzanne K; Haney, Margaret; Rubin, Eric; Foltin, Richard W

    2010-07-01

    Human laboratory studies have shown that, once initiated, cocaine self-administration is difficult to disrupt using non-drug alternatives. This inpatient study examined whether binge self-administration of cocaine could be altered by an immediate, non-drug reinforcer. Ten cocaine-dependent participants completed 5 consecutive laboratory session days with 2 sessions per day (a model binge), 9 days where cocaine was not available, and subsequent 2 laboratory session days where cocaine was again available (a second model binge). In each laboratory session, participants could choose to either self-administer smoked cocaine or play a game of chance by drawing a pre-determined number of balls from a bingo wheel. Balls were worth monetary amounts from $0 to $20. Participants' choice to smoke cocaine varied as a function of number of balls drawn. Thus, this game of chance served as an alternative reinforcer to smoking cocaine. Choice varied lawfully as a function of the number of opportunities to earn money indicating that an immediate behavioral alternative can reduce cocaine self-administration after initiation of use. The current model could be used to evaluate whether behavioral and pharmacological manipulations shift choice from cocaine to a non-drug alternative. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Industrialized Development Models of Agricultural Scientific and Technological Achievements

    OpenAIRE

    WANG, Wanjiang

    2015-01-01

    Industrialization of agricultural scientific and technological achievements has become an extremely important part in agricultural structural adjustment and agricultural economic development. Basic models for industrialization of China’s agricultural scientific and technological achievements should be: (i) integrating scientific and technological development and production relying on large enterprises; (ii) integrating scientific research and development with agricultural scientific and tec...

  12. Use of additive technologies for practical working with complex models for foundry technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olkhovik, E.; Butsanets, A. A.; Ageeva, A. A.

    2016-07-01

    The article presents the results of research of additive technology (3D printing) application for developing a geometrically complex model of castings parts. Investment casting is well known and widely used technology for the production of complex parts. The work proposes the use of a 3D printing technology for manufacturing models parts, which are removed by thermal destruction. Traditional methods of equipment production for investment casting involve the use of manual labor which has problems with dimensional accuracy, and CNC technology which is less used. Such scheme is low productive and demands considerable time. We have offered an alternative method which consists in printing the main knots using a 3D printer (PLA and ABS) with a subsequent production of castings models from them. In this article, the main technological methods are considered and their problems are discussed. The dimensional accuracy of models in comparison with investment casting technology is considered as the main aspect.

  13. Technology choice and CDM projects in China: case study of a small steel company in Shandong Province

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaneko, Shinji; Yonamine, Asaka; Jung, Tae Yong

    2006-01-01

    Corporate motives and strategies of both investing and hosting country affect the outcomes of a clean development mechanism (CDM) project-who introduces what technology to whom-and result in large differences in economic viability and the CO 2 emission reductions. This is particularly true for steel industry in which steel making consists of many detailed and complex processes, a given strategy could produce cumulative effects of the individual technologies used, leading to large energy savings overall. The objective of this study is to demonstrate some analytical methods that can be used to quantitatively evaluate the impacts of technology selection on the profit performance of CDM projects. Specifically, in this study we analyze a CDM project to introduce energy saving technology from Japan to a small steel manufacturer in China's Shandong Province, and conduct a simulation of the quantitative relationships between various technology options and profitability. Based on these results, we examine the environmental and economic significance of technology selection for CDM projects. To take this further, we then reconsider the profitability of a project as typical FDI activity (i.e., without the CDM), and by comparing this outcome with the CDM case, we clarify the significance and potential of the CDM

  14. Consumer rationality in choice

    OpenAIRE

    Conlon, B.J.

    2001-01-01

    The dissertation concentrates on consumer choice and the ability of current modelling approaches to capture the underlying behaviour of the individual decision-makers. The standard assumption of a rational utility maximising individual and its implications for observed behaviour are examined and demonstrated empirically to be incompatible with actual consumer choices. In particular the complexity of the choice situation, and its various components, are found to be major determinants of the ch...

  15. Modelling of usual nutrient intakes: potential impact of the choices programme on nutrient intakes in young dutch adults.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annet J C Roodenburg

    Full Text Available The Choices Programme is an internationally applicable nutrient profiling system with nutrition criteria for trans fatty acids (TFA, saturated fatty acids, sodium, added sugar and for some product groups energy and fibre. These criteria determine whether foods are eligible to carry a "healthier option" stamp. In this paper a nutrient intake modelling method is described to evaluate these nutritional criteria by investigating the potential effect on nutrient intakes.Data were combined from the 2003 Dutch food consumption survey in young adults (aged 19-30 and the Dutch food composition table into the Monte Carlo Risk Assessment model. Three scenarios were calculated: the "actual intakes" (scenario 1 were compared to scenario 2, where all foods that did not comply were replaced by similar foods that did comply with the Choices criteria. Scenario 3 was the same as scenario 2 adjusted for the difference in energy density between the original and replacement food. Additional scenarios were calculated where snacks were not or partially replaced and stratified analyses for gender, age, Body Mass Index (BMI and education.Calculated intake distributions showed that median energy intake was reduced by 16% by replacing normally consumed foods with Choices compliant foods. Intakes of nutrients with a maximal intake limit were also reduced (ranging from -23% for sodium and -62% for TFA. Effects on intakes of beneficial nutrients varied from an unintentional reduction in fat soluble vitamin intakes (-15 to -28% to an increase of 28% for fibre and 17% calcium. Stratified analyses in this homogeneous study population showed only small differences across gender, age, BMI and education.This intake modelling method showed that with consumption of Choices compliant foods, nutrient intakes shift towards population intake goals for the nutrients for which nutrition criteria were defined, while effects on beneficial nutrients were diverse.

  16. Modelling of Usual Nutrient Intakes: Potential Impact of the Choices Programme on Nutrient Intakes in Young Dutch Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roodenburg, Annet J. C.; van Ballegooijen, Adriana J.; Dötsch-Klerk, Mariska; van der Voet, Hilko; Seidell, Jacob C.

    2013-01-01

    Introduction The Choices Programme is an internationally applicable nutrient profiling system with nutrition criteria for trans fatty acids (TFA), saturated fatty acids, sodium, added sugar and for some product groups energy and fibre. These criteria determine whether foods are eligible to carry a “healthier option” stamp. In this paper a nutrient intake modelling method is described to evaluate these nutritional criteria by investigating the potential effect on nutrient intakes. Methods Data were combined from the 2003 Dutch food consumption survey in young adults (aged 19–30) and the Dutch food composition table into the Monte Carlo Risk Assessment model. Three scenarios were calculated: the “actual intakes” (scenario 1) were compared to scenario 2, where all foods that did not comply were replaced by similar foods that did comply with the Choices criteria. Scenario 3 was the same as scenario 2 adjusted for the difference in energy density between the original and replacement food. Additional scenarios were calculated where snacks were not or partially replaced and stratified analyses for gender, age, Body Mass Index (BMI) and education. Results Calculated intake distributions showed that median energy intake was reduced by 16% by replacing normally consumed foods with Choices compliant foods. Intakes of nutrients with a maximal intake limit were also reduced (ranging from −23% for sodium and −62% for TFA). Effects on intakes of beneficial nutrients varied from an unintentional reduction in fat soluble vitamin intakes (−15 to −28%) to an increase of 28% for fibre and 17% calcium. Stratified analyses in this homogeneous study population showed only small differences across gender, age, BMI and education. Conclusions This intake modelling method showed that with consumption of Choices compliant foods, nutrient intakes shift towards population intake goals for the nutrients for which nutrition criteria were defined, while effects on beneficial

  17. Modeling and simulation technology readiness levels.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clay, Robert L.; Shneider, Max S.; Marburger, S. J.; Trucano, Timothy Guy

    2006-01-01

    This report summarizes the results of an effort to establish a framework for assigning and communicating technology readiness levels (TRLs) for the modeling and simulation (ModSim) capabilities at Sandia National Laboratories. This effort was undertaken as a special assignment for the Weapon Simulation and Computing (WSC) program office led by Art Hale, and lasted from January to September 2006. This report summarizes the results, conclusions, and recommendations, and is intended to help guide the program office in their decisions about the future direction of this work. The work was broken out into several distinct phases, starting with establishing the scope and definition of the assignment. These are characterized in a set of key assertions provided in the body of this report. Fundamentally, the assignment involved establishing an intellectual framework for TRL assignments to Sandia's modeling and simulation capabilities, including the development and testing of a process to conduct the assignments. To that end, we proposed a methodology for both assigning and understanding the TRLs, and outlined some of the restrictions that need to be placed on this process and the expected use of the result. One of the first assumptions we overturned was the notion of a ''static'' TRL--rather we concluded that problem context was essential in any TRL assignment, and that leads to dynamic results (i.e., a ModSim tool's readiness level depends on how it is used, and by whom). While we leveraged the classic TRL results from NASA, DoD, and Sandia's NW program, we came up with a substantially revised version of the TRL definitions, maintaining consistency with the classic level definitions and the Predictive Capability Maturity Model (PCMM) approach. In fact, we substantially leveraged the foundation the PCMM team provided, and augmented that as needed. Given the modeling and simulation TRL definitions and our proposed assignment methodology, we

  18. Measuring Technology Acceptance Level of Turkish Pre-Service English Teachers by Using Technology Acceptance Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirmizi, Özkan

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study is to investigate technology acceptance of prospective English teachers by using Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) in Turkish context. The study is based on Structural Equation Model (SEM). The participants of the study from English Language Teaching Departments of Hacettepe, Gazi and Baskent Universities. The participants…

  19. Technology Marketing using PCA , SOM, and STP Strategy Modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Sunghae Jun

    2011-01-01

    Technology marketing is a total processing about identifying and meeting the technological needs of human society. Most technology results exist in intellectual properties like patents. In our research, we consider patent document as a technology. So patent data are analyzed by Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Self Organizing Map (SOM) for STP(Segmentation, Targeting, and Positioning) strategy modeling. STP is a popular approach for developing marketing strategies. We use STP strategy m...

  20. SET-MM – A Software Evaluation Technology Maturity Model

    OpenAIRE

    García-Castro, Raúl

    2011-01-01

    The application of software evaluation technologies in different research fields to verify and validate research is a key factor in the progressive evolution of those fields. Nowadays, however, to have a clear picture of the maturity of the technologies used in evaluations or to know which steps to follow in order to improve the maturity of such technologies is not easy. This paper describes a Software Evaluation Technology Maturity Model that can be used to assess software evaluation tech...

  1. Current issues in the analysis of consumer food choice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grunert, Klaus G.

    2001-01-01

    The Total Food Quality Model is used as a framework for highlighting a number of issues of current concern in understanding consumer food choice, and where promising avenues for research are seen. Consumer food choice is seen as a process where consumers form expectations about product quality...... before or during purchase, and then have a quality experience after the purchase. However, an increasing role of credence characteristics in food choice assigns communication a stronger role in understanding food choice, and consumer concern for food production technologies gives prior attitudes...

  2. Social modeling of eating: a review of when and why social influence affects food intake and choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruwys, Tegan; Bevelander, Kirsten E; Hermans, Roel C J

    2015-03-01

    A major determinant of human eating behavior is social modeling, whereby people use others' eating as a guide for what and how much to eat. We review the experimental studies that have independently manipulated the eating behavior of a social referent (either through a live confederate or remotely) and measured either food choice or intake. Sixty-nine eligible experiments (with over 5800 participants) were identified that were published between 1974 and 2014. Speaking to the robustness of the modeling phenomenon, 64 of these studies have found a statistically significant modeling effect, despite substantial diversity in methodology, food type, social context and participant demographics. In reviewing the key findings from these studies, we conclude that there is limited evidence for a moderating effect of hunger, personality, age, weight or the presence of others (i.e., where the confederate is live vs. remote). There is inconclusive evidence for whether sex, attention, impulsivity and eating goals moderate modeling, and for whether modeling of food choice is as strong as modeling of food intake. Effects with substantial evidence were: modeling is increased when individuals desire to affiliate with the model, or perceive themselves to be similar to the model; modeling is attenuated (but still significant) for healthy-snack foods and meals such as breakfast and lunch, and modeling is at least partially mediated through behavioral mimicry, which occurs without conscious awareness. We discuss evidence suggesting that modeling is motivated by goals of both affiliation and uncertainty-reduction, and outline how these might be theoretically integrated. Finally, we argue for the importance of taking modeling beyond the laboratory and bringing it to bear on the important societal challenges of obesity and disordered eating. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Mathematical models, rational choice, and the search for Cold War culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erickson, Paul

    2010-06-01

    A key feature of the social, behavioral, and biological sciences after World War II has been the widespread adoption of new mathematical techniques drawn from cybernetics, information theory, and theories of rational choice. Historians of science have typically sought to explain this adoption either by reference to military patronage, or to a characteristic Cold War culture or discursive framework strongly shaped by the concerns of national security. This essay explores several episodes in the history of game theory--a mathematical theory of rational choice--that demonstrate the limits of such explanations. Military funding was indeed critical to game theory's early development in the 1940s. However, the theory's subsequent spread across disciplines ranging from political science to evolutionary biology was the result of a diverse collection of debates about the nature of "rationality" and "choice" that marked the Cold War era. These debates are not easily reduced to the national security imperatives that have been the focus of much historiography to date.

  4. Integrated modelling in materials and process technology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hattel, Jesper Henri

    2008-01-01

    Integrated modelling of entire process sequences and the subsequent in-service conditions, and multiphysics modelling of the single process steps are areas that increasingly support optimisation of manufactured parts. In the present paper, three different examples of modelling manufacturing...... processes from the viewpoint of combined materials and process modelling are presented: solidification of thin walled ductile cast iron, integrated modelling of spray forming and multiphysics modelling of friction stir welding. The fourth example describes integrated modelling applied to a failure analysis...

  5. Effect of patient choice and hospital competition on service configuration and technology adoption within cancer surgery: a national, population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aggarwal, Ajay; Lewis, Daniel; Mason, Malcolm; Purushotham, Arnie; Sullivan, Richard; van der Meulen, Jan

    2017-11-01

    There is a scarcity of evidence about the role of patient choice and hospital competition policies on surgical cancer services. Previous evidence has shown that patients are prepared to bypass their nearest cancer centre to receive surgery at more distant centres that better meet their needs. In this national, population-based study we investigated the effect of patient mobility and hospital competition on service configuration and technology adoption in the National Health Service (NHS) in England, using prostate cancer surgery as a model. We mapped all patients in England who underwent radical prostatectomy between Jan 1, 2010, and Dec 31, 2014, according to place of residence and treatment location. For each radical prostatectomy centre we analysed the effect of hospital competition (measured by use of a spatial competition index [SCI], with a score of 0 indicating weakest competition and 1 indicating strongest competition) and the effect of being an established robotic radical prostatectomy centre at the start of 2010 on net gains or losses of patients (difference between number of patients treated in a centre and number expected based on their residence), and the likelihood of closing their radical prostatectomy service. Between Jan 1, 2010, and Dec 31, 2014, 19 256 patients underwent radical prostatectomy at an NHS provider in England. Of the 65 radical prostatectomy centres open at the start of the study period, 23 (35%) had a statistically significant net gain of patients during 2010-14. Ten (40%) of these 23 were established robotic centres. 37 (57%) of the 65 centres had a significant net loss of patients, of which two (5%) were established robotic centres and ten (27%) closed their radical prostatectomy service during the study period. Radical prostatectomy centres that closed were more likely to be located in areas with stronger competition (highest SCI quartile [0·87-0·92]; p=0·0081) than in areas with weaker competition. No robotic surgery centre

  6. How Can Blockchain Technology Disrupt the Existing Business Models?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Witold Nowiński

    2017-09-01

    Contribution & Value Added: This study provides an analysis of the possible impact of blockchain technology on business model innovation. Blockchain technology is gaining momentum with more and more diverse applications, as well as increasing numbers of actors involved in its applications. This paper contributes to our understanding of the possible applications of blockchain technology to businesses, and in particular to its impact on business models.

  7. Anatomical features for an adequate choice of experimental animal model in biomedicine: II. Small laboratory rodents, rabbit, and pig.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lossi, Laura; D'Angelo, Livia; De Girolamo, Paolo; Merighi, Adalberto

    2016-03-01

    The anatomical features distinctive to each of the very large array of species used in today's biomedical research must be born in mind when considering the correct choice of animal model(s), particularly when translational research is concerned. In this paper we take into consideration and discuss the most important anatomical and histological features of the commonest species of laboratory rodents (rat, mouse, guinea pig, hamster, and gerbil), rabbit, and pig related to their importance for applied research. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  8. Review of early assessment models of innovative medical technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fasterholdt, Iben; Krahn, Murray D; Kidholm, Kristian

    2017-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Hospitals increasingly make decisions regarding the early development of and investment in technologies, but a formal evaluation model for assisting hospitals early on in assessing the potential of innovative medical technologies is lacking. This article provides an overview of models...... methods assessing cost-effectiveness are most prevalent in early assessment, but seems ill-suited for early assessment in hospitals. Four models provided some usable elements for the development of a hospital-based model....

  9. Humanistic Model in Adult Education and Science and Technology ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Humanistic Model in Adult Education and Science and Technology: Challenges of the 21 st Century Developing Nation. ... Annals of Modern Education ... is the result of the scientific and technological advancement, this paper considers humanistic model in adult education as liberal education appropriate for adult age.

  10. A model technology transfer program for independent operators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoeling, L.G.

    1996-08-01

    In August 1992, the Energy Research Center (ERC) at the University of Kansas was awarded a contract by the US Department of Energy (DOE) to develop a technology transfer regional model. This report describes the development and testing of the Kansas Technology Transfer Model (KTTM) which is to be utilized as a regional model for the development of other technology transfer programs for independent operators throughout oil-producing regions in the US. It describes the linkage of the regional model with a proposed national technology transfer plan, an evaluation technique for improving and assessing the model, and the methodology which makes it adaptable on a regional basis. The report also describes management concepts helpful in managing a technology transfer program.

  11. Modeling and optimization of the lifetime of technologies

    CERN Document Server

    Hritonenko, Natali

    1996-01-01

    Modern economic growth is characterized by structural changes based on the introduction of new technologies into economics. The replacement and renova­ tion of technologies in industrial environments undergoing technical change is clearly one of the key aspects of economic development. The mathematical modeling of evolutionary economics under technical change (TC) has been rigorously considered by many authors during last decades. There is a wide variety of economic approaches and models describing different aspects of technical change. Among these are the models of embodied technical progress [19], [35], [70], [129], endogenous growth models [94], [102], the models of technological innovations [31], [32], [41], and others. The perspective self­ organization evolutionary approach is developed in [20], [38], [122], [123], [124], [126], which unites the aspects of diffusion of new technologies, technological and behavioral diversity of firms, learning mechanisms, age-dependent effects, and other important fea...

  12. Employees' Choices in Learning How to Use Information and Communication Technology Systems at Work: Strategies and Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korpelainen, Eija; Kira, Mari

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to promote the understanding of how employees learn to use information and communication technology (ICT) systems at work. The elements of a learning activity in the context of ICT use are identified from the literature. In particular, approaches to learning, learning strategies and problem-solving strategies are…

  13. Interpreting User's Choice of Technologies: A Quantitative Research on Choosing the Best Web-Based Communication Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adebiaye, Richmond

    2010-01-01

    The proliferation of web-based communication tools like email clients vis-a-vis Yahoo mail, Gmail, and Hotmail have led to new innovations in web-based communication. Email users benefit greatly from this technology, but lack of security of these tools can put users at risk of loss of privacy, including identity theft, corporate espionage, and…

  14. Factors Affecting Gender Equity in the Choice of Science and Technology Careers among Secondary School Students in Edo State, Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osagie, Roseline O.; Alutu, Azuka N.

    2016-01-01

    The study investigated the factors affecting gender equity in science and technology among senior secondary school students. The study was carried out at the University of Benin Demonstration Secondary School in Benin City, Edo State, Nigeria. One hundred and fifty students of average age 15 years in their penultimate year were administered the…

  15. The choice of the fuel assembly for VVER-1000 in a closed fuel cycle based on REMIX-technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bobrov, E.; Alekseev, P.; Chibinyaev, A.; Teplov, P.; Dudnikov, A.

    2016-01-01

    REMIX (Regenerated Mixture) fuel is produced directly from a non-separated mix of recycled uranium and plutonium from reprocessed used fuel and the fabrication technology of such fuel is called REMIX-technology. This paper shows basic features of different fuel assembly (FA) application for VVER-1000 in a closed fuel cycle based on REMIX-technology. This investigation shows how the change in the water-fuel ratio in the VVER FA affects the fuel characteristics produced by REMIX technology during multiple recycling. It is shown that for for the traditional REMIX-fuel it does not make sense to change anything in the design of VVER FA, because there are no advantages in the fuel feed consumption. The natural uranium economy by the fifth cycle reached about 29%. In the case of the REMIX fuel based on uranium-plutonium from SNF MOX fuel, it would be appropriate to use fuel assemblies with a water-fuel ratio of 1.5

  16. Model for acquiring innovative waste immobilization technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dole, L.R.; Singh, S.P.N.

    1988-01-01

    The US Department of Energy's (DOE's) Oak Ridge Operations (ORO) has established the Waste Management Technology Center (WMTC) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory to assist in meeting the environmental requirements for federal facilities as stated in the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) and the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA). The WMTC will bring innovative mixed chemical and radioactive waste treatment and site closure technologies to bear on the many mixed chemical and radioactive waste problems at the DOE-ORO facilities located in Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio. The WMTC seeks innovative technologies through a phased procurement cycle that encourages the teaming of emerging technologies with experienced contractors in order to comply with on-site requirements of DOE orders concerning protection of the environment. This three-phase procurement cycle includes: (1) a feasibility study and implementation plan, (2) an on-site pilot demonstration, and (3) full-scale implementation. This paper describes the statements of work for some related demonstrations and remedial actions

  17. Empirical modeling of information communication technology usage ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study will play a vital role in filling up the research gap that exist in technology acceptance behaviour among business education faculties across tertiary institutions in Nigeria and the rest of Africa. Future research on the subject matter may attempt to investigate the moderating roles of voluntariness and compulsory ...

  18. Modeling learning technology systems as business systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Avgeriou, Paris; Retalis, Symeon; Papaspyrou, Nikolaos

    2003-01-01

    The design of Learning Technology Systems, and the Software Systems that support them, is largely conducted on an intuitive, ad hoc basis, thus resulting in inefficient systems that defectively support the learning process. There is now justifiable, increasing effort in formalizing the engineering

  19. Enhanced living environments from models to technologies

    CERN Document Server

    Dobre, Ciprian; Ganchev, Ivan; Garcia, Nuno; Goleva, Rossitza Ivanova

    2017-01-01

    Enhanced living environments employ information and communications technologies to support true ambient assisted living for people with disabilities. This book provides an overview of today's architectures, techniques, protocols, components, and cloud-based solutions related to ambient assisted living and enhanced living environments.

  20. Measuring partner choice in plant-pollinator networks: using null models to separate rewiring and fidelity from chance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacLeod, Molly; Genung, Mark A; Ascher, John S; Winfree, Rachael

    2016-11-01

    Recent studies of mutualistic networks show that interactions between partners change across years. Both biological mechanisms and chance could drive these patterns, but the relative importance of these factors has not been separated. We established a field experiment consisting of 102 monospecific plots of 17 native plant species, from which we collected 6713 specimens of 52 bee species over four years. We used these data and a null model to determine whether bee species' foraging choices varied more or less over time beyond the variation expected by chance. Thus we provide the first quantitative definition of rewiring and fidelity as these terms are used in the literature on interaction networks. All 52 bee species varied in plant partner choice across years, but for 27 species this variation was indistinguishable from random partner choice. Another 11 species showed rewiring, varying more across years than expected by chance, while 14 species showed fidelity, indicating that they both prefer certain plant species and are consistent in those preferences across years. Our study shows that rewiring and fidelity both exist in mutualist networks, but that once sampling effects have been accounted for, they are less common than has been reported in the ecological literature. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

  1. The theory of white elephants. A rational choice explanation of policy failures in government support for civilian technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keck, O.

    1985-01-01

    Government programs for developing civilian technology sometimes end up in spectacular failures. This paper conceptualizes such failures as a pareto-deficient game, similar to the prisoner's dilemma. Firms expecting that a program is going to be a failure have no incentive to communicate their judgement to government, as long as government finances all development costs. Fortunately there is a way out of the dilemma. Cost-sharing between government and industry creates an incentive for the firms to communicate to government what they realy think of the technology's economic prospects. Empirical evidence is given from the history of the West German and American fast breeder programs. The paper discusses implications of this theory for the concept of government failure. (orig.HP) [de

  2. Cost and Performance Assumptions for Modeling Electricity Generation Technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tidball, R.; Bluestein, J.; Rodriguez, N.; Knoke, S.

    2010-11-01

    The goal of this project was to compare and contrast utility scale power plant characteristics used in data sets that support energy market models. Characteristics include both technology cost and technology performance projections to the year 2050. Cost parameters include installed capital costs and operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Performance parameters include plant size, heat rate, capacity factor or availability factor, and plant lifetime. Conventional, renewable, and emerging electricity generating technologies were considered. Six data sets, each associated with a different model, were selected. Two of the data sets represent modeled results, not direct model inputs. These two data sets include cost and performance improvements that result from increased deployment as well as resulting capacity factors estimated from particular model runs; other data sets represent model input data. For the technologies contained in each data set, the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) was also evaluated, according to published cost, performance, and fuel assumptions.

  3. How do dynamic capabilities transform external technologies into firms’ renewed technological resources? – A mediation model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li-Ying, Jason; Wang, Yuandi; Ning, Lutao

    2016-01-01

    How externally acquired resources may become valuable, rare, hard-to-imitate, and non-substitute resource bundles through the development of dynamic capabilities? This study proposes and tests a mediation model of how firms’ internal technological diversification and R&D, as two distinctive...... microfoundations of dynamic technological capabilities, mediate the relationship between external technology breadth and firms’ technological innovation performance, based on the resource-based view and dynamic capability view. Using a sample of listed Chinese licensee firms, we find that firms must broadly...... explore external technologies to ignite the dynamism in internal technological diversity and in-house R&D, which play their crucial roles differently to transform and reconfigure firms’ technological resources....

  4. Introducing technology learning for energy technologies in a national CGE model through soft links to global and national energy models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinsen, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes a method to model the influence by global policy scenarios, particularly spillover of technology learning, on the energy service demand of the non-energy sectors of the national economy. It is exemplified by Norway. Spillover is obtained from the technology-rich global Energy Technology Perspective model operated by the International Energy Agency. It is provided to a national hybrid model where a national bottom-up Markal model carries forward spillover into a national top-down CGE model at a disaggregated demand category level. Spillover of technology learning from the global energy technology market will reduce national generation costs of energy carriers. This may in turn increase demand in the non-energy sectors of the economy because of the rebound effect. The influence of spillover on the Norwegian economy is most pronounced for the production level of industrial chemicals and for the demand for electricity for residential energy services. The influence is modest, however, because all existing electricity generating capacity is hydroelectric and thus compatible with the low emission policy scenario. In countries where most of the existing generating capacity must be replaced by nascent energy technologies or carbon captured and storage the influence on demand is expected to be more significant. - Highlights: → Spillover of global technology learning may be forwarded into a macroeconomic model. → The national electricity price differs significantly between the different global scenarios. → Soft-linking global and national models facilitate transparency in the technology learning effect chain.

  5. The Strength of Ethical Matrixes as a Tool for Normative Analysis Related to Technological Choices: The Case of Geological Disposal for Radioactive Waste.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kermisch, Céline; Depaus, Christophe

    2018-02-01

    The ethical matrix is a participatory tool designed to structure ethical reflection about the design, the introduction, the development or the use of technologies. Its collective implementation, in the context of participatory decision-making, has shown its potential usefulness. On the contrary, its implementation by a single researcher has not been thoroughly analyzed. The aim of this paper is precisely to assess the strength of ethical matrixes implemented by a single researcher as a tool for conceptual normative analysis related to technological choices. Therefore, the ethical matrix framework is applied to the management of high-level radioactive waste, more specifically to retrievable and non-retrievable geological disposal. The results of this analysis show that the usefulness of ethical matrixes is twofold and that they provide a valuable input for further decision-making. Indeed, by using ethical matrixes, implicit ethically relevant issues were revealed-namely issues of equity associated with health impacts and differences between close and remote future generations regarding ethical impacts. Moreover, the ethical matrix framework was helpful in synthesizing and comparing systematically the ethical impacts of the technologies under scrutiny, and hence in highlighting the potential ethical conflicts.

  6. Lipid Processing Technology: Building a Multilevel Modeling Network

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Díaz Tovar, Carlos Axel; Mustaffa, Azizul Azri; Mukkerikar, Amol

    2011-01-01

    of a master parameter table; iii) development of a model library consisting of new and adopted process models of unit operations involved in lipid processing technologies, validation of the developed models using operating data collected from existing process plants, and application of validated models......The aim of this work is to present the development of a computer aided multilevel modeling network for the systematic design and analysis of processes employing lipid technologies. This is achieved by decomposing the problem into four levels of modeling: i) pure component property modeling...... and a lipid-database of collected experimental data from industry and generated data from validated predictive property models, as well as modeling tools for fast adoption-analysis of property prediction models; ii) modeling of phase behavior of relevant lipid mixtures using the UNIFACCI model, development...

  7. A Network Analysis Model for Selecting Sustainable Technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sangsung Park

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Most companies develop technologies to improve their competitiveness in the marketplace. Typically, they then patent these technologies around the world in order to protect their intellectual property. Other companies may use patented technologies to develop new products, but must pay royalties to the patent holders or owners. Should they fail to do so, this can result in legal disputes in the form of patent infringement actions between companies. To avoid such situations, companies attempt to research and develop necessary technologies before their competitors do so. An important part of this process is analyzing existing patent documents in order to identify emerging technologies. In such analyses, extracting sustainable technology from patent data is important, because sustainable technology drives technological competition among companies and, thus, the development of new technologies. In addition, selecting sustainable technologies makes it possible to plan their R&D (research and development efficiently. In this study, we propose a network model that can be used to select the sustainable technology from patent documents, based on the centrality and degree of a social network analysis. To verify the performance of the proposed model, we carry out a case study using actual patent data from patent databases.

  8. Towards a model of source and channel choices in business-to-government service interactions : A structural equation modeling approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Boer, Yvon; Pieterson, Willem; Arendsen, Rex; van Dijk, Jan

    With a growing number of available communication channels and the increasing role of other information sources, organizations are urged to rethink their service strategies. Most theories are limited to a one-dimensional focus on source or channel choice and do not fit into today's networked

  9. The effects of a technology-enhanced, flexible choice science program on achievement, self-efficacy and the scale learner progression mechanism in science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grace, Lori

    A mixed methods comparative case study of two DRG I urban high schools was used to determine the effectiveness of the Flexible Choice Science Program (FCSP) at producing equitable learning outcomes in students. FCSP recognized both 'among and within learner' differences, while allowing the teacher the semblance of a single lesson. Program sequencing, a differentiated technology platform and allowances for student control and creativity, allowed learners to progress from novice to master at their own pace. Results showed that holistic participation in FCSP by School A students led to significant positive learning effects, particularly for low ability learners. Results of this study challenge current educational grouping techniques that have resulted in inequity, by demonstrating that when students group themselves, their success increases by more than 100%. Results of this research also challenge common notion that cognition most defines student potential by demonstrating that student affect most influences learning.

  10. Design Choices of the MedAustron Nozzles and Proton Gantry based on Modeling of Particle Scattering

    CERN Document Server

    Palm, M; Benedikt, M

    2011-01-01

    MedAustron, the Austrian hadron therapy center is currently under construction. Irradiations will be performed using active scanning with a proton or carbon ion pencil beam which is subject to scattering in vacuum windows, beam monitors and air gap. For applications where sharp lateral beam penumbras are required in order to spare critical organs from unwanted dose, scattering should be minimal. A semi-empirical scattering model has been established to evaluate beam size growth at the patient due to upstream scattering. Major design choices for proton gantry and nozzle based on the scattering calculations are presented.

  11. Investigating the Effect of Damage Progression Model Choice on Prognostics Performance

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The success of model-based approaches to systems health management depends largely on the quality of the underly- ing models. In model-based prognostics, it is...

  12. Understanding the impact of technology on firms’ business models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cavalcante, Sergio Andre

    2013-01-01

    for innovative commercial products and/or services. Three of the consortium companies were selected for case-study research. Findings – The main findings were that companies will use the new technology to extend their existing business models, and that the technology platform potentially represents the creation...... of a new business model for the partner companies in the consortium. Practical implications – This paper is important in that it will help companies understand technological impact from a business model perspective, thereby enabling them to manage innovation better by distinguishing between the creation......, extension, revision or termination of business models. Originality/value – The main contribution of this study is its use of the business model perspective to analyse the impact of an emergent technology on companies’ innovation activities. This perspective makes it easier to develop strategic initiatives...

  13. Using simulation models to investigate the cumulative effects of sowing rate, sowing date and cultivar choice on weed competition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew, Izzadora K S; Storkey, Jonathan

    2017-05-01

    With the increasing pressure on crop production from the evolution of herbicide resistance, farmers are increasingly adopting Integrated Weed Management (IWM) strategies to augment their weed control. These include measures to increase the competitiveness of the crop canopy such as increased sowing rate and the use of more competitive cultivars. While there are data on the relative impact of these non-chemical weed control methods assessed in isolation, there is uncertainty about their combined contribution, which may be hindering their adoption. In this article, the INTERCOM simulation model of crop/weed competition was used to examine the combined impact of crop density, sowing date and cultivar choice on the outcomes of competition between wheat ( Triticum aestivum ) and Alopecurus myosuroides . Alopecurus myosuroides is a problematic weed of cereal crops in North-Western Europe and the primary target for IWM in the UK because it has evolved resistance to a range of herbicides. The model was parameterised for two cultivars with contrasting competitive ability, and simulations run across 10 years at different crop densities and two sowing dates. The results suggest that sowing date, sowing density and cultivar choice largely work in a complementary fashion, allowing enhanced competitive ability against weeds when used in combination. However, the relative benefit of choosing a more competitive cultivar decreases at later sowing dates and higher crop densities. Modeling approaches could be further employed to examine the effectiveness of IWM, reducing the need for more expensive and cumbersome long-term in situ experimentation.

  14. Exploring unobserved household living conditions in multilevel choice modeling: An application to contraceptive adoption by Indian women.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José G Dias

    Full Text Available This research analyzes the effect of the poverty-wealth dimension on contraceptive adoption by Indian women when no direct measures of income/expenditures are available to use as covariates. The index-Household Living Conditions (HLC-is based on household assets and dwelling characteristics and is computed by an item response model simultaneously with the choice model in a new single-step approach. That is, the HLC indicator is treated as a latent covariate measured by a set of items, it depends on a set of concomitant variables, and explains contraceptive choices in a probit regression. Additionally, the model accounts for complex survey design and sample weights in a multilevel framework. Regarding our case study on contraceptive adoption by Indian women, results show that women with better household living conditions tend to adopt contraception more often than their counterparts. This effect is significant after controlling other factors such as education, caste, and religion. The external validation of the indicator shows that it can also be used at aggregate levels of analysis (e.g., county or state whenever no other indicators of household living conditions are available.

  15. Exploring unobserved household living conditions in multilevel choice modeling: An application to contraceptive adoption by Indian women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dias, José G; de Oliveira, Isabel Tiago

    2018-01-01

    This research analyzes the effect of the poverty-wealth dimension on contraceptive adoption by Indian women when no direct measures of income/expenditures are available to use as covariates. The index-Household Living Conditions (HLC)-is based on household assets and dwelling characteristics and is computed by an item response model simultaneously with the choice model in a new single-step approach. That is, the HLC indicator is treated as a latent covariate measured by a set of items, it depends on a set of concomitant variables, and explains contraceptive choices in a probit regression. Additionally, the model accounts for complex survey design and sample weights in a multilevel framework. Regarding our case study on contraceptive adoption by Indian women, results show that women with better household living conditions tend to adopt contraception more often than their counterparts. This effect is significant after controlling other factors such as education, caste, and religion. The external validation of the indicator shows that it can also be used at aggregate levels of analysis (e.g., county or state) whenever no other indicators of household living conditions are available.

  16. Simulation and Modeling Capability for Standard Modular Hydropower Technology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stewart, Kevin M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Smith, Brennan T. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Witt, Adam M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); DeNeale, Scott T. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Bevelhimer, Mark S. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Pries, Jason L. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Burress, Timothy A. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Kao, Shih-Chieh [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Mobley, Miles H. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Lee, Kyutae [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Curd, Shelaine L. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Tsakiris, Achilleas [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Mooneyham, Christian [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Papanicolaou, Thanos [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Ekici, Kivanc [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States); Whisenant, Matthew J. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Welch, Tim [US Department of Energy, Washington, DC (United States); Rabon, Daniel [US Department of Energy, Washington, DC (United States)

    2017-08-01

    Grounded in the stakeholder-validated framework established in Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s SMH Exemplary Design Envelope Specification, this report on Simulation and Modeling Capability for Standard Modular Hydropower (SMH) Technology provides insight into the concepts, use cases, needs, gaps, and challenges associated with modeling and simulating SMH technologies. The SMH concept envisions a network of generation, passage, and foundation modules that achieve environmentally compatible, cost-optimized hydropower using standardization and modularity. The development of standardized modeling approaches and simulation techniques for SMH (as described in this report) will pave the way for reliable, cost-effective methods for technology evaluation, optimization, and verification.

  17. Modeling the anti-cyberbullying preferences of university students: Adaptive choice-based conjoint analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Charles E; Chen, Yvonne; Vaillancourt, Tracy; Rimas, Heather; Deal, Ken; Cunningham, Lesley J; Ratcliffe, Jenna

    2015-01-01

    Adaptive choice-based conjoint analysis was used to study the anti-cyberbullying program preferences of 1,004 university students. More than 60% reported involvement in cyberbullying as witnesses (45.7%), victims (5.7%), perpetrator-victims (4.9%), or perpetrators (4.5%). Men were more likely to report involvement as perpetrators and perpetrator-victims than were women. Students recommended advertisements featuring famous people who emphasized the impact of cyberbullying on victims. They preferred a comprehensive approach teaching skills to prevent cyberbullying, encouraging students to report incidents, enabling anonymous online reporting, and terminating the internet privileges of students involved as perpetrators. Those who cyberbully were least likely, and victims of cyberbullying were most likely, to support an approach combining prevention and consequences. Simulations introducing mandatory reporting, suspensions, or police charges predicted a substantial reduction in the support of uninvolved students, witnesses, victims, and perpetrators. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  18. Development of the Model of Decision Support for Alternative Choice in the Transportation Transit System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kabashkin Igor

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The decision support system is one of the instruments for choosing the most effective decision for cargo owner in constant fluctuated business environment. The objective of this Paper is to suggest the multiple-criteria approach for evaluation and choice the alternatives of cargo transportation in the large scale transportation transit system for the decision makers - cargo owners. The large scale transportation transit system is presented by directed finite graph. Each of 57 alternatives is represented by the set of key performance indicators Kvi and set of parameters Paj. There has been developed a two-level hierarchy system of criteria with ranging expert evaluations based on Analytic Hierarchy Process Method. The best alternatives were suggested according to this method.

  19. An Improved Valuation Model for Technology Companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ako Doffou

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper estimates some of the parameters of the Schwartz and Moon (2001 model using cross-sectional data. Stochastic costs, future financing, capital expenditures and depreciation are taken into account. Some special conditions are also set: the speed of adjustment parameters are equal; the implied half-life of the sales growth process is linked to analyst forecasts; and the risk-adjustment parameter is inferred from the company’s observed stock price beta. The model is illustrated in the valuation of Google, Amazon, eBay, Facebook and Yahoo. The improved model is far superior to the Schwartz and Moon (2001 model.

  20. Modeling organizational justice improvements in a pediatric health service : a discrete-choice conjoint experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Charles E; Kostrzewa, Linda; Rimas, Heather; Chen, Yvonne; Deal, Ken; Blatz, Susan; Bowman, Alida; Buchanan, Don H; Calvert, Randy; Jennings, Barbara

    2013-01-01

    Patients value health service teams that function effectively. Organizational justice is linked to the performance, health, and emotional adjustment of the members of these teams. We used a discrete-choice conjoint experiment to study the organizational justice improvement preferences of pediatric health service providers. Using themes from a focus group with 22 staff, we composed 14 four-level organizational justice improvement attributes. A sample of 652 staff (76 % return) completed 30 choice tasks, each presenting three hospitals defined by experimentally varying the attribute levels. Latent class analysis yielded three segments. Procedural justice attributes were more important to the Decision Sensitive segment, 50.6 % of the sample. They preferred to contribute to and understand how all decisions were made and expected management to act promptly on more staff suggestions. Interactional justice attributes were more important to the Conduct Sensitive segment (38.5 %). A universal code of respectful conduct, consequences encouraging respectful interaction, and management's response when staff disagreed with them were more important to this segment. Distributive justice attributes were more important to the Benefit Sensitive segment, 10.9 % of the sample. Simulations predicted that, while Decision Sensitive (74.9 %) participants preferred procedural justice improvements, Conduct (74.6 %) and Benefit Sensitive (50.3 %) participants preferred interactional justice improvements. Overall, 97.4 % of participants would prefer an approach combining procedural and interactional justice improvements. Efforts to create the health service environments that patients value need to be comprehensive enough to address the preferences of segments of staff who are sensitive to different dimensions of organizational justice.

  1. Business Cycle Models with Embodied Technological Change and Poisson Shocks

    OpenAIRE

    Schlegel, Christoph

    2004-01-01

    The first part analyzes an Endogenous Business Cycle model with embodied technological change. Households take an optimal decision about their spending for consumption and financing of R&D. The probability of a technology invention occurring is an increasing function of aggregate R&D expenditure in the whole economy. New technologies bring higher productivity, but rather than applying to the whole capital stock, they require a new vintage of capital, which first has to be accu...

  2. Finding the right RoPax vessel size and freight price. A coste and mode choice model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morales Fusco, P.; Grau Sala, M.; Sauri Marchan, S.

    2016-07-01

    Motorways of the sea operated as RoPax services are natural competitors with only-road freight haulage transportation. Cost, time and quality perceived are the determinants that make transporters and shippers use one route or another. This research considers the role that shipping companies and their ship deployment and pricing strategy have in the equation, as incentives for modal shift from road to sea. A model of the ships and transporter costs is developed considering different business models for the transporter (accompanied versus unaccompanied cargo) followed with a discrete choice model that, once calibrated, allows to test the influence that variables such as frequency, ship size and commercial speed might play into the competitiveness of a shipping line. As a result, different pricing strategies for the shipping line are developed and the characteristics of the optimal shipping line for each of them are found, to either maximize the profit of the shipping company or the modal shift. (Author)

  3. Modelling architectures in multi-product oriented technology development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guðlaugsson, Tómas Vignir

    This thesis investigates the use of architecture modelling in a technology development context.This context presents greater uncertainties than more mature new product development. Applications—the use of products based on the technology being developed—are not fully identified and the requiremen...... frameworks in a technology development projectare presented, along with descriptive results on the context of technology development gained through active participation in the case project.......This thesis investigates the use of architecture modelling in a technology development context.This context presents greater uncertainties than more mature new product development. Applications—the use of products based on the technology being developed—are not fully identified and the requirements...... to be fulfilled are not completely defined.The products to be based on the technology are yet to be developed as the foundation for their development will be developed during the technology development. Furthermore, the production of a new technology is not defined as both the technology and derivative products...

  4. Modelling assistive technology adoption for people with dementia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaurasia, Priyanka; McClean, Sally I; Nugent, Chris D; Cleland, Ian; Zhang, Shuai; Donnelly, Mark P; Scotney, Bryan W; Sanders, Chelsea; Smith, Ken; Norton, Maria C; Tschanz, JoAnn

    2016-10-01

    Assistive technologies have been identified as a potential solution for the provision of elderly care. Such technologies have in general the capacity to enhance the quality of life and increase the level of independence among their users. Nevertheless, the acceptance of these technologies is crucial to their success. Generally speaking, the elderly are not well-disposed to technologies and have limited experience; these factors contribute towards limiting the widespread acceptance of technology. It is therefore important to evaluate the potential success of technologies prior to their deployment. The research described in this paper builds upon our previous work on modelling adoption of assistive technology, in the form of cognitive prosthetics such as reminder apps and aims at identifying a refined sub-set of features which offer improved accuracy in predicting technology adoption. Consequently, in this paper, an adoption model is built using a set of features extracted from a user's background to minimise the likelihood of non-adoption. The work is based on analysis of data from the Cache County Study on Memory and Aging (CCSMA) with 31 features covering a range of age, gender, education and details of health condition. In the process of modelling adoption, feature selection and feature reduction is carried out followed by identifying the best classification models. With the reduced set of labelled features the technology adoption model built achieved an average prediction accuracy of 92.48% when tested on 173 participants. We conclude that modelling user adoption from a range of parameters such as physical, environmental and social perspectives is beneficial in recommending a technology to a particular user based on their profile. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. TECHNOLOGICAL PROCESS MODELING AIMING TO IMPROVE ITS OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Mihajlović

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the modeling procedure of one real technological system. In this study, thecopper extraction from the copper flotation waste generated at the Bor Copper Mine (Serbia, werethe object of modeling. Sufficient data base for statistical modeling was constructed using theorthogonal factorial design of the experiments. Mathematical model of investigated system wasdeveloped using the combination of linear and multiple linear statistical analysis approach. Thepurpose of such a model is obtaining optimal states of the system that enable efficient operationsmanagement. Besides technological and economical, ecological parameters of the process wereconsidered as crucial input variables.

  6. The axiom of choice

    CERN Document Server

    Jech, Thomas J

    2008-01-01

    Comprehensive in its selection of topics and results, this self-contained text examines the relative strengths and consequences of the axiom of choice. Each chapter contains several problems, graded according to difficulty, and concludes with some historical remarks.An introduction to the use of the axiom of choice is followed by explorations of consistency, permutation models, and independence. Subsequent chapters examine embedding theorems, models with finite supports, weaker versions of the axiom, and nontransferable statements. The final sections consider mathematics without choice, cardin

  7. Competence Models in Technology-enhanced Competence-based Learning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sampson, Demetrios; Fytros, Demetrios

    2008-01-01

    Please cite as: Sampson, D., & Fytros, D. (2008). Competence Models in Technology-enhanced Competence-based Learning. In H. H. Adelsberger, Kinshuk, J. M. Pawlowski & D. Sampson (Eds.), International Handbook on Information Technologies for Education and Training, 2nd Edition, Springer, June 2008

  8. Optimizing technology investments: a broad mission model approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shishko, R.

    2003-01-01

    A long-standing problem in NASA is how to allocate scarce technology development resources across advanced technologies in order to best support a large set of future potential missions. Within NASA, two orthogonal paradigms have received attention in recent years: the real-options approach and the broad mission model approach. This paper focuses on the latter.

  9. Climate change and voltinism in Californian insect pest species: sensitivity to location, scenario and climate model choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziter, Carly; Robinson, Emily A; Newman, Jonathan A

    2012-09-01

    Experimental studies of the impact of climatic change are hampered by their inability to consider multiple climate change scenarios and indeed often consider no more than simple climate sensitivity such as a uniform increase in temperature. Modelling efforts offer the ability to consider a much wider range of realistic climate projections and are therefore useful, in particular, for estimating the sensitivity of impact predictions to differences in geographical location, and choice of climate change scenario and climate model projections. In this study, we used well-established degree-day models to predict the voltinism of 13 agronomically important pests in California, USA. We ran these models using the projections from three Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled Global Circulation Models (AOCGCMs or GCMs), in conjunction with the SRES scenarios. We ran these for two locations representing northern and southern California. We did this for both the 2050s and 2090s. We used anova to partition the variation in the resulting voltinism among time period, climate change scenario, GCM and geographical location. For these 13 pest species, the choice of climate model explained an average of 42% of the total variation in voltinism, far more than did geographical location (33%), time period (17%) or scenario (1%). The remaining 7% of the variation was explained by various interactions, of which the location by GCM interaction was the strongest (5%). Regardless of these sources of uncertainty, a robust conclusion from our work is that all 13 pest species are likely to experience increases in the number of generations that they complete each year. Such increased voltinism is likely to have significant consequences for crop protection and production. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  10. Risk Management Technologies With Logic and Probabilistic Models

    CERN Document Server

    Solozhentsev, E D

    2012-01-01

    This book presents intellectual, innovative, information technologies (I3-technologies) based on logical and probabilistic (LP) risk models. The technologies presented here consider such models for structurally complex systems and processes with logical links and with random events in economics and technology.  The volume describes the following components of risk management technologies: LP-calculus; classes of LP-models of risk and efficiency; procedures for different classes; special software for different classes; examples of applications; methods for the estimation of probabilities of events based on expert information. Also described are a variety of training courses in these topics. The classes of risk models treated here are: LP-modeling, LP-classification, LP-efficiency, and LP-forecasting. Particular attention is paid to LP-models of risk of failure to resolve difficult economic and technical problems. Amongst the  discussed  procedures of I3-technologies  are the construction of  LP-models,...

  11. A DYNAMICAL SYSTEM APPROACH IN MODELING TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hennie Husniah

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we discuss a mathematical model of two parties technology transfer from a leader to a follower. The model is reconstructed via dynamical system approach from a known standard Raz and Assa model and we found some important conclusion which have not been discussed in the original model. The model assumes that in the absence of technology transfer from a leader to a follower, both the leader and the follower have a capability to grow independently with a known upper limit of the development. We obtain a rich mathematical structure of the steady state solution of the model. We discuss a special situation in which the upper limit of the technological development of the follower is higher than that of the leader, but the leader has started earlier than the follower in implementing the technology. In this case we show a paradox stating that the follower is unable to reach its original upper limit of the technological development could appear whenever the transfer rate is sufficiently high.  We propose a new model to increase realism so that any technological transfer rate could only has a positive effect in accelerating the rate of growth of the follower in reaching its original upper limit of the development.

  12. Lipid Processing Technology: Building a Multilevel Modeling Network

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Díaz Tovar, Carlos Axel; Mustaffa, Azizul Azri; Mukkerikar, Amol

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this work is to present the development of a computer aided multilevel modeling network for the systematic design and analysis of processes employing lipid technologies. This is achieved by decomposing the problem into four levels of modeling: i) pure component property modeling...

  13. Plasma Modeling Enabled Technology Development Empowered by Fundamental Scattering Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kushner, Mark J.

    2016-05-01

    Technology development increasingly relies on modeling to speed the innovation cycle. This is particularly true for systems using low temperature plasmas (LTPs) and their role in enabling energy efficient processes with minimal environmental impact. In the innovation cycle, LTP modeling supports investigation of fundamental processes that seed the cycle, optimization of newly developed technologies, and prediction of performance of unbuilt systems for new applications. Although proof-of-principle modeling may be performed for idealized systems in simple gases, technology development must address physically complex systems that use complex gas mixtures that now may be multi-phase (e.g., in contact with liquids). The variety of fundamental electron and ion scattering, and radiation transport data (FSRD) required for this modeling increases as the innovation cycle progresses, while the accuracy required of that data depends on the intended outcome. In all cases, the fidelity, depth and impact of the modeling depends on the availability of FSRD. Modeling and technology development are, in fact, empowered by the availability and robustness of FSRD. In this talk, examples of the impact of and requirements for FSRD in the innovation cycle enabled by plasma modeling will be discussed using results from multidimensional and global models. Examples of fundamental studies and technology optimization will focus on microelectronics fabrication and on optically pumped lasers. Modeling of systems as yet unbuilt will address the interaction of atmospheric pressure plasmas with liquids. Work supported by DOE Office of Fusion Energy Science and the National Science Foundation.

  14. Study on modeling technology in digital reactor system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Xiaoping; Luo Yuetong; Tong Lili

    2004-01-01

    Modeling is the kernel part of a digital reactor system. As an extensible platform for reactor conceptual design, it is very important to study modeling technology and develop some kind of tools to speed up preparation of all classical computing models. This paper introduces the background of the project and basic conception of digital reactor. MCAM is taken as an example for modeling and its related technologies used are given. It is an interface program for MCNP geometry model developed by FDS team (ASIPP and HUT), and designed to run on windows system. MCAM aims at utilizing CAD technology to facilitate creation of MCNP geometry model. There have been two ways for MCAM to utilize CAD technology: (1) Making use of user interface technology in aid of generation of MCNP geometry model; (2) Making use of existing 3D CAD model to accelerate creation of MCNP geometry model. This paper gives an overview of MCAM's major function. At last, several examples are given to demonstrate MCAM's various capabilities. (authors)

  15. Mathematical modeling courses for Media technology students

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Timcenko, Olga

    2009-01-01

    This paper addresses curriculum development for Mathematical Modeling course at Medialogy education. Medialogy as a study line was established in 2002 at Faculty for Engineering and Natural Sciences at Aalborg University, and mathematics curriculum has already been revised three times, Mathematic...... Modeling on 6th semester being the latest addition. Some of the reasoning behind curriculum development, lessons learned and remaining issues are presented and discussed.  ...

  16. Polymer Matrix Composites using Fused Deposition Modeling Technology Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Fused deposition modeling (FDM) is an additive manufacturing technology that allows fabrication of complex three-dimensional geometries layer-by-layer. The goal of...

  17. A Technology-based Model for Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Williams

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available The Math Emporium, opened in 1997, is an open 7000-squaremeter facility with 550+ workstations arranged in an array of widely spaced hexagonal "pods", designed to support group work at the same time maintaining an academic air. We operate it 24/7 with math support personnel in attendance 12 hours per day. Students have access to online course resources at all times, from anywhere. We have used this unique asset to transform traditional classroom-based courses into technology based learning programs that have no class meetings at all. The structure of the program is very different from the conventional one, having a new set of expectations and motivations. The results include: more effective students, substantial cost savings, economies of scale and scope and a stream-lined process for creating new on-line courses.

  18. Technology Model of Aquaculture Production System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hor, K. W.; Salleh, S. M.; Abdullah; Ezree, Mohd; Zaman, I.; Hatta, M. H.; Ahmad, S.; Ismail, A. E.; Mahmud, W. A. W.

    2017-10-01

    The high market demand has led to the rapid growth in fish farming. The young generation are inexperienced in determining the estimated results of fish farming and the preparation of fish pond during the period of fish farming. These need a complete guide as their reference which includes the knowledge of fish farming. The main objective of this project is to develop a practical design of real pond appropriate with aquaculture technology and fish farming production. There are three parts of study in this project which include fish farming cage, growth of fish and water quality of fish farming pond. Few of experiments were carried out involved the collection data in terms of growth of fish and parameters of water quality.

  19. Tough and easy choices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Søren Bøye; Lundhede, Thomas; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl

    2011-01-01

    Respondents in Stated Preference studies may be uncertain about their preferences for the good presented to them. Inspired by Wang (J Environ Econ Manag 32:219–232, 1997) we hypothesize that respondents’ stated certainty in choice increases with the utility difference between the alternative chosen...... and the best alternative to that. We test this hypothesis using data from two independent Choice Experiments both focusing on nature values. In modelling respondents’ self-reported certainty in choice, we find evidence that the stated level of certainty increases significantly as utility difference in choice...... sets increases. In addition, stated certainty increases with income. Furthermore, there is some evidence that male respondents are inherently more certain in their choices than females, and a learning effect may increase stated certainty. We find evidence of this in the first study where the good...

  20. Numerical modeling in photonic crystals integrated technology: the COPERNICUS Project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Malaguti, Stefania; Armaroli, Andrea; Bellanca, Gaetano

    2011-01-01

    Photonic crystals will play a fundamental role in the future of optical communications. The relevance of the numerical modeling for the success of this technology is assessed by using some examples concerning the experience of the COPERNICUS Project.......Photonic crystals will play a fundamental role in the future of optical communications. The relevance of the numerical modeling for the success of this technology is assessed by using some examples concerning the experience of the COPERNICUS Project....

  1. ASSESSING INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCE ON INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION: A NEW MODEL

    OpenAIRE

    Diah Hari Suryaningrum

    2012-01-01

    This paper aims to propose a new model in assessing individual performance on information technology adoption. The new model to assess individual performance was derived from two different theories: decomposed theory of planned behavior and task-technology fit theory. Although many researchers have tried to expand these theories, some of their efforts might lack of theoretical assumptions. To overcome this problem and enhance the coherence of the integration, I used a theory from social scien...

  2. Safe design and operation of fluidized-bed reactors: Choice between reactor models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Westerink, E.J.; Westerterp, K.R.

    1990-01-01

    For three different catalytic fluidized bed reactor models, two models presented by Werther and a model presented by van Deemter, the region of safe and unique operation for a chosen reaction system was investigated. Three reaction systems were used: the oxidation of benzene to maleic anhydride, the

  3. Rural technology and agribusiness in Argentina. The rationale underpinning the dominant technological model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel M. Caceres

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyses the main characteristics of the technological model fostered by agribusiness in Argentina, discusses its main problems and highlights the need to analyze it within a broader economic and political context. This technology is described as a technological fix and three main attributes are presented: instantaneity, transitoriness, and recurrence. The supposed efficiency of the productive model fostered by agribusiness occurs at the expense of natural capital depletion and at the costs internalized by other social actors. This is happening either via accumulation by dispossession, or through the socialization and temporal deferment of its negative externalities. Its strength largely transcends the technological domains. To bring this model into question would imply not only to object its visible head (i.e., agribusiness, but also to question the institutions (scientific, educative, juridical, and administrative and the political structures that support it. Finally, the paper discusses some alternatives and suggests to develop a political agronomy for Latin America. 

  4. Willingness to pay for ecosystem conservation in Alaska's Tongass National Forest: a choice modeling study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evan E. Hjerpe

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Forest ecosystems contribute to human welfare in important ways, but because of the nonmarket nature of many of the goods and services produced, both markets and governments fail to optimize their production commensurate with their economic and ecological significance. Despite the recent proliferation of nonmarket environmental valuation in the literature, the incorporation of nonmarket values into public forest decision making has been limited by institutional and methodological barriers. To address this disconnect, we conducted a case study to quantify conservation values for the Tongass National Forest in a manner conducive for public forest planning. A choice experiment featuring proposed forest management alternatives with changes in critical attributes relative to their levels in the status quo was used to generate the requisite data. Econometric analysis suggests that Alaskans have strong preference for conservation management, including both preservation and ecological restoration, over status quo or exploitation management. However, there is significant heterogeneity among Alaskans in terms of bias toward the status quo depending on their socioeconomic characteristics, e.g., gender, age, place of residence, household income, whether or not they have dependent children. The findings of this study can be helpful to forest managers in the preparation of resource management plans consistent with maximization of total economic value of forest ecosystem services.

  5. The analysis and choice of models of durability at probes of reliability of drive lines

    OpenAIRE

    Pastukhov, A.

    2014-01-01

    The most actual problem of modern agricultural mechanical engineering is increasing of durability of details of transport and technological cars and the equipment by criteria of wear, corrosion and fatigue strength at simultaneous drop of their massogabaritny indicators. The continuous increase in power, working speed and other indicators of cars and the equipment, and also growth of intensity of details connected with it result in need of use in the course of probe of reliability of transmis...

  6. How much do incentives affect car purchase? Agent-based microsimulation of consumer choice of new cars. Part 1. Model structure, simulation of bounded rationality, and model validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller, Michel G.; Haan, Peter de

    2009-01-01

    This article presents an agent-based microsimulation capable of forecasting the effects of policy levers that influence individual choices of new passenger cars. The fundamental decision-making units are households distinguished by sociodemographic characteristics and car ownership. A two-stage model of individual decision processes is employed. In the first stage, individual choice sets are constructed using simple, non-compensatory rules that are based on previously owned cars. Second, decision makers evaluate alternatives in their individual choice set using a multi-attributive weighting rule. The attribute weights are based on a multinomial logit model for cross-country policy analysis in European countries. Additionally, prospect theory and the notion of mental accounting are used to model the perception of monetary values. The microsimulation forecasts actual market observations with high accuracy, both on the level of aggregate market characteristics as well as on a highly resolved level of distributions of market shares. The presented approach is useful for the assessment of policies that influence individual purchase decisions of new passenger cars; it allows accounting for a highly resolved car fleet and differentiated consumer segments. As a result, the complexity of incentive schemes can be represented and detailed structural changes can be investigated. (author)

  7. Reciprocal Markov modeling of feedback mechanisms between emotion and dietary choice using experience sampling data

    OpenAIRE

    Lu, Ji; Pan, Junhao; Zhang, Qiang; Dubé, Laurette; Ip, Edward H.

    2015-01-01

    With intensively collected longitudinal data, recent advances in Experience Sampling Method (ESM) benefit social science empirical research, but also pose important methodological challenges. As traditional statistical models are not generally well-equipped to analyze a system of variables that contain feedback loops, this paper proposes the utility of an extended hidden Markov model to model reciprocal relationship between momentary emotion and eating behavior. This paper revisited an ESM da...

  8. Endogenizing technological change. Matching empirical evidence to modeling needs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pizer, William A. [Resources for the Future, 1616 P Street NW, Washington, DC, 20009 (United States); Popp, David [Department of Public Administration, Center for Policy Research, The Maxwell School, Syracuse University, 426 Eggers Hall, Syracuse, NY 13244-1020 (United States); National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)

    2008-11-15

    Given that technologies to significantly reduce fossil fuel emissions are currently unavailable or only available at high cost, technological change will be a key component of any long-term strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In light of this, the amount of research on the pace, direction, and benefits of environmentally-friendly technological change has grown dramatically in recent years. This research includes empirical work estimating the magnitude of these effects, and modeling exercises designed to simulate the importance of endogenous technological change in response to climate policy. Unfortunately, few attempts have been made to connect these two streams of research. This paper attempts to bridge that gap. We review both the empirical and modeling literature on technological change. Our focus includes the research and development process, learning by doing, the role of public versus private research, and technology diffusion. Our goal is to provide an agenda for how both empirical and modeling research in these areas can move forward in a complementary fashion. In doing so, we discuss both how models used for policy evaluation can better capture empirical phenomena, and how empirical research can better address the needs of models used for policy evaluation. (author)

  9. Endogenizing technological change: Matching empirical evidence to modeling needs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pizer, William A. [Resources for the Future, 1616 P Street NW, Washington, DC, 20009 (United States)], E-mail: pizer@rff.org; Popp, David [Department of Public Administration, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University, 426 Eggers Hall, Syracuse, NY 13244-1020 (United States); National Bureau of Economic Research (United States)], E-mail: dcpopp@maxwell.syr.edu

    2008-11-15

    Given that technologies to significantly reduce fossil fuel emissions are currently unavailable or only available at high cost, technological change will be a key component of any long-term strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In light of this, the amount of research on the pace, direction, and benefits of environmentally-friendly technological change has grown dramatically in recent years. This research includes empirical work estimating the magnitude of these effects, and modeling exercises designed to simulate the importance of endogenous technological change in response to climate policy. Unfortunately, few attempts have been made to connect these two streams of research. This paper attempts to bridge that gap. We review both the empirical and modeling literature on technological change. Our focus includes the research and development process, learning by doing, the role of public versus private research, and technology diffusion. Our goal is to provide an agenda for how both empirical and modeling research in these areas can move forward in a complementary fashion. In doing so, we discuss both how models used for policy evaluation can better capture empirical phenomena, and how empirical research can better address the needs of models used for policy evaluation.

  10. A model for technology assessment and commercialization for innovative disruptive technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    KASSICIEH, SULEIMAN K.; WALSH, STEVE; MCWHORTER,PAUL J.; CUMMINGS JR.,JOHN C.; WILLIAMS,W. DAVID; ROMIG JR.,ALTON D.

    2000-05-17

    Disruptive technologies are scientific discoveries that break through the usual product technology capabilities and provide a basis for a new competitive paradigm as described by Anderson and Tushman [1990], Tushman and Rosenkopf [1992], and Bower and Christensen [1995]. Discontinuous innovations are products/processes/services that provide exponential improvements in the value received by the customer much in the same vein as Walsh [1996], Lynn, Morone and Paulson [1996], and Veryzer [1998]. For more on definitions of disruptive technologies and discontinuous innovations, see Walsh and Linton [1999] who provide a number of definitions for disruptive technologies and discontinuous innovations. Disruptive technologies and discontinuous innovations present a unique challenge and opportunity for R and D organizations seeking to build their commercialization efforts and to reinvent the corporation. These technologies do not have a proven path from scientific discovery to mass production and therefore require novel approaches. These critically important technologies are the wellspring of wealth creation and new competency generation but are not readily accepted by the corporate community. They are alternatively embraced and eschewed by the commercial community. They are finally accepted when the technology has already affected the industry or when the technological horse has already flown out of the hanger. Many firms, especially larger firms, seem reluctant to familiarize themselves with these technologies quickly. The trend seems to be that these firms prefer to react to a proven disruptive technology that has changed the product market paradigm. If true, then there is cause for concern. This paper will review the literature on disruptive technologies presenting a model of the progression from scientific idea to mass production for disruptive technologies contrasted to the more copious incremental technologies. The paper will then describe Sandia National Laboratories

  11. Impact of template choice on homology model efficiency in virtual screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rataj, Krzysztof; Witek, Jagna; Mordalski, Stefan; Kosciolek, Tomasz; Bojarski, Andrzej J

    2014-06-23

    Homology modeling is a reliable method of predicting the three-dimensional structures of proteins that lack NMR or X-ray crystallographic data. It employs the assumption that a structural resemblance exists between closely related proteins. Despite the availability of many crystal structures of possible templates, only the closest ones are chosen for homology modeling purposes. To validate the aforementioned approach, we performed homology modeling of four serotonin receptors (5-HT1AR, 5-HT2AR, 5-HT6R, 5-HT7R) for virtual screening purposes, using 10 available G-Protein Coupled Receptors (GPCR) templates with diverse evolutionary distances to the targets, with various approaches to alignment construction and model building. The resulting models were further validated in two steps by means of ligand docking and enrichment calculation, using Glide software. The final quality of the models was determined in virtual screening-like experiments by the AUROC score of the resulting ROC curves. The outcome of this research showed that no correlation between sequence identity and model quality was found, leading to the conclusion that the closest phylogenetic relative is not always the best template for homology modeling.

  12. I'll Have What She's Having: The Impact of Model Characteristics on Children's Food Choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frazier, Brandy N.; Gelman, Susan A.; Kaciroti, Niko; Russell, Joshua W.; Lumeng, Julie C.

    2012-01-01

    This research investigates children's use of social categories in their food selection. Across three studies, we presented preschoolers with sets of photographs that contrasted food-eating models with different characteristics, including model gender, race (Black, White), age (child or adult), and/or expression (acceptance or rejection of the…

  13. A disaggregate freight transport model of transport chain and shipment size choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Windisch, E.; De Jong, G.C.; Van Nes, R.; Hoogendoorn, S.P.

    2010-01-01

    The field of freight transport modelling is relatively young compared to passenger transport modelling. However, some key issues in freight policy, like growing freight shares on the road, advanced logistics concepts or emerging strict freight transport regulations, have been creating increasing

  14. Exploring Sex Differences in Science Enrolment Intentions: An Application of the General Model of Academic Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, Geoffrey; McInerney, Dennis M.; Marsh, Herbert W.

    2005-01-01

    In many countries there remain substantial sex differences in enrolments in elective science courses, despite concerted efforts in recent years to alleviate them. This paper explores the reasons for these differences by comparing models of male and female enrolment intentions in elective courses in biology, chemistry and physics. The models are…

  15. Racial Disparities, Perceptions, and Evaluations: Counseling Model Choice and the Florida College System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ocean, Mia; Hawkins, Damian; Chopra, Kobitta

    2014-01-01

    Community college students face a number of life and academic challenges. It is unknown what counseling models are currently employed by community colleges to meet their students' many needs. Representatives of Florida's 28 community colleges completed a survey detailing their counseling model, student populations, rationale behind the model…

  16. Presenting Thin Media Models Affects Women's Choice of Diet or Normal Snacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krahe, Barbara; Krause, Christina

    2010-01-01

    Our study explored the influence of thin- versus normal-size media models and of self-reported restrained eating behavior on women's observed snacking behavior. Fifty female undergraduates saw a set of advertisements for beauty products showing either thin or computer-altered normal-size female models, allegedly as part of a study on effective…

  17. Turbulence model choice for the calculation of drag forces when using the CFD method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaïdi, H; Fohanno, S; Taïar, R; Polidori, G

    2010-02-10

    The aim of this work is to specify which model of turbulence is the most adapted in order to predict the drag forces that a swimmer encounters during his movement in the fluid environment. For this, a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis has been undertaken with a commercial CFD code (Fluent). The problem was modelled as 3D and in steady hydrodynamic state. The 3D geometry of the swimmer was created by means of a complete laser scanning of the swimmer's body contour. Two turbulence models were tested, namely the standard k-epsilon model with a specific treatment of the fluid flow area near the swimmer's body contour, and the standard k-omega model. The comparison of numerical results with experimental measurements of drag forces shows that the standard k-omega model accurately predicts the drag forces while the standard k-epsilon model underestimates their values. The standard k-omega model also enabled to capture the vortex structures developing at the swimmer's back and buttocks in underwater swimming; the same vortices had been visualized by flow visualization experiments carried out at the INSEP (National Institute for Sport and Physical Education in Paris) with the French national swimming team. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. A multiple choice decision analysis: an integrated QFD – AHP model ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The aim of this work is to propose a new methodological approach to define customer specifications through the employment of an integrated Quality Function Deployment (QFD) – Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) model. The model, which is loosely based on QFD, incorporates the AHP approach to delineate and rank the ...

  19. A family of spatial interaction models incorporating information flows and choice set constraints applied to U.S. interstate labor flows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, T R; Slater, P B

    1981-01-01

    "A new family of migration models belonging to the elimination by aspects family is examined, with the spatial interaction model shown to be a special case. The models have simple forms; they incorporate information flow processes and choice set constraints; they are free of problems raised by the Luce Choice Axiom; and are capable of generating intransitive flows. Preliminary calibrations using the Continuous Work History Sample [time] series data indicate that the model fits the migration data well, while providing estimates of interstate job message flows. The preliminary calculations also indicate that care is needed in assuming that destination [attraction] are independent of origins." excerpt

  20. A choice modelling analysis on the similarity between distribution utilities' and industrial customers' price and quality preferences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soederberg, Magnus

    2008-01-01

    The Swedish Electricity Act states that electricity distribution must comply with both price and quality requirements. In order to maintain efficient regulation it is necessary to firstly, define quality attributes and secondly, determine a customer's priorities concerning price and quality attributes. If distribution utilities gain an understanding of customer preferences and incentives for reporting them, the regulator can save a lot of time by surveying them rather than their customers. This study applies a choice modelling methodology where utilities and industrial customers are asked to evaluate the same twelve choice situations in which price and four specific quality attributes are varied. The preferences expressed by the utilities, and estimated by a random parameter logit, correspond quite well with the preferences expressed by the largest industrial customers. The preferences expressed by the utilities are reasonably homogenous in relation to forms of association (private limited, public and trading partnership). If the regulator acts according to the preferences expressed by the utilities, smaller industrial customers will have to pay for quality they have not asked for. (author)

  1. FARM WORK, OFF-FARM WORK, AND HIRED FARM LABOR: ESTIMATING A DISCRETE-CHOICE MODEL OF FRENCH FARM COUPLES' LABOR DECISIONS

    OpenAIRE

    Benjamin, Catherine; Kimhi, Ayal

    2003-01-01

    We estimate jointly three types of discrete-choice labor decisions of farm couples: farm work, off-farm work, and hired farm labor. Using a 16-choice multinomial logit model, we find that operators' and spouses' farm labor are substitutes. Hired farm labor increases with farmers' qualifications, perhaps substituting for the couples' labor inputs. Other adults in the households substitute for the farm labor input of the farm couple and hired workers.

  2. Choice probability generating functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel

    2010-01-01

    This paper establishes that every random utility discrete choice model (RUM) has a representation that can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) with specific properties, and that every function with these specific properties is consistent with a RUM. The choice...... probabilities from the RUM are obtained from the gradient of the CPGF. Mixtures of RUM are characterized by logarithmic mixtures of their associated CPGF. The paper relates CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and reviews and extends methods for constructing generating functions for applications...

  3. Technology Transition a Model for Infusion and Commercialization

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMillan, Vernotto C.

    2006-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration has as part of its charter the mission of transferring technologies developed for the space program into the private sector for the purpose of affording back to the American people the economical and improved quality of life benefits associated with the technologies developed. In recent years considerable effort has been made to use this program for not only transitioning technologies out of the NASA Mission Directorate Programs, but also to transfer technologies into the Mission Directorate Programs and leverage the impact of government and private sector innovation. The objective of this paper is to outline an approach and the creation of a model that brings together industry, government, and commercialization strategies. When these elements are integrated, the probability of successful technology development, technology infusion into the Mission Programs, and commercialization into the private sector is increased. This model primarily addresses technology readiness levels between TRL 3 and TRL 6. This is typically a gap area known as the valley of death. This gap area is too low for commercial entities to invest heavily and not developed enough for major programs to actively pursue. This model has shown promise for increasing the probably of TRL advancement to an acceptable level for NASA programs and/or commercial entities to afford large investments toward either commercialization or infusion.

  4. The effects of model composition design choices on high-fidelity simulations of motoneuron recruitment and firing behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, John M; Elbasiouny, Sherif M

    2017-11-28

    Computational models often require tradeoffs, such as balancing detail with efficiency; yet optimal balance should incorporate sound design features that do not bias the results of the specific scientific question under investigation. The present study examines how model design choices impact simulation results. We developed a rigorously-validated high-fidelity computational model of the spinal motoneuron pool to study three long-standing model design practices which have yet to be examined for their impact on motoneuron recruitment, firing rate, and force simulations. The practices examined were the use of: 1) Generic cell models to simulate different motoneuron types, 2) discrete property ranges for different motoneuron types, and 3) biological homogeneity of cell properties within motoneuron types. Our results show that each of these practices accentuates conditions of motoneuron recruitment based on the size principle, and minimizes conditions of mixed and reversed recruitment orders, which have been observed in animal and human recordings. Specifically, strict motoneuron orderly size recruitment occurs, but in a compressed range, after which mixed and reverse motoneuron recruitment occurs due to the overlap in electrical properties of different motoneuron types. Additionally, these practices underestimate the motoneuron firing rates and force data simulated by existing models. Our results indicate that current modeling practices increase conditions of motoneuron recruitment based on the size principle, and decrease conditions of mixed and reversed recruitment order, which, in turn, impacts the predictions made by existing models on motoneuron recruitment, firing rate, and force. Additionally, mixed and reverse motoneuron recruitment generated higher muscle force than orderly size motoneuron recruitment in these simulations and represents one potential scheme to increase muscle efficiency. The examined model design practices, as well as the present results, are

  5. Implications of the subjectivity in hydrologic model choice and parameter identification on the portrayal of climate change impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendoza, Pablo; Clark, Martyn; Rajagopalan, Balaji; MIzukami, Naoki; Gutmann, Ethan; Newman, Andy; Barlage, Michael; Brekke, Levi; Arnold, Jeffrey

    2014-05-01

    Climate change studies involve several methodological choices that affect the hydrological sensitivities obtained, including emission scenarios, climate models, downscaling techniques and hydrologic modeling approaches. Among these, hydrologic model structure selection (i.e. the set of equations that describe catchment processes) and parameter identification are particularly relevant and usually have a strong subjective component. This subjectivity is not only limited to engineering applications, but also extends to many of our research studies, resulting in problems such as missing processes in our models, inappropriate parameterizations and compensatory effects of model parameters (i.e. getting the right answers for the wrong reasons). The goal of this research is to assess the impact of our modeling decisions on projected changes in water balance and catchment behavior for future climate scenarios. Additionally, we aim to better understand the relative importance of hydrologic model structures and parameters on the portrayal of climate change impact. Therefore, we compare hydrologic sensitivities coming from four different models structures (PRMS, VIC, Noah and Noah-MP) with those coming from parameter sets identified using different decisions related to model calibration (objective function, multiple local optima and calibration forcing dataset). We found that both model structure selection and parameter estimation strategy (objective function and forcing dataset) affect the direction and magnitude of climate change signal. Furthermore, the relative effect of subjective decisions on projected variations of catchment behavior depends on the hydrologic signature measure analyzed. Finally, parameter sets with similar values of the objective function may not affect current and future changes in water balance, but may lead to very different sensitivities in hydrologic behavior.

  6. Tracer technology modeling the flow of fluids

    CERN Document Server

    Levenspiel, Octave

    2012-01-01

    A vessel’s behavior as a heat exchanger, absorber, reactor, or other process unit is dependent upon how fluid flows through the vessel.  In early engineering, the designer would assume either plug flow or mixed flow of the fluid through the vessel.  However, these assumptions were oftentimes inaccurate, sometimes being off by a volume factor of 100 or more.  The result of this unreliable figure produced ineffective products in multiple reaction systems.   Written by a pioneering researcher in the field of chemical engineering, the tracer method was introduced to provide more accurate flow data.  First, the tracer method measured the actual flow of fluid through a vessel.  Second, it developed a suitable model to represent the flow in question.  Such models are used to follow the flow of fluid in chemical reactors and other process units, like in rivers and streams, or solid and porous structures.  In medicine, the tracer method is used to study the flow of chemicals—harmful  and harmless—in the...

  7. Investigating habits: strategies, technologies and models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Kyle S; Graybiel, Ann M

    2014-01-01

    Understanding habits at a biological level requires a combination of behavioral observations and measures of ongoing neural activity. Theoretical frameworks as well as definitions of habitual behaviors emerging from classic behavioral research have been enriched by new approaches taking account of the identification of brain regions and circuits related to habitual behavior. Together, this combination of experimental and theoretical work has provided key insights into how brain circuits underlying action-learning and action-selection are organized, and how a balance between behavioral flexibility and fixity is achieved. New methods to monitor and manipulate neural activity in real time are allowing us to have a first look "under the hood" of a habit as it is formed and expressed. Here we discuss ideas emerging from such approaches. We pay special attention to the unexpected findings that have arisen from our own experiments suggesting that habitual behaviors likely require the simultaneous activity of multiple distinct components, or operators, seen as responsible for the contrasting dynamics of neural activity in both cortico-limbic and sensorimotor circuits recorded concurrently during different stages of habit learning. The neural dynamics identified thus far do not fully meet expectations derived from traditional models of the structure of habits, and the behavioral measures of habits that we have made also are not fully aligned with these models. We explore these new clues as opportunities to refine an understanding of habits.

  8. Ill-founded models of consumer choice in communication about food biotechnology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scholderer, Joachim; Bredahl, Lone; Frewer, Lynn

    2000-01-01

    assumptions about attitude structure and change are identified through content analysis and interpreted in terms of established social psychological models. The majority of experts seem to assume a multiattribute utility model of attitude formation and a corresponding hierarchy-of-effects model of attitude......, they are embedded into a system of general attitudes from which they derive as instances. In Study 3, 1650 consumers from Denmark, Germany, Italy, and the UK participated in attitude change experiments. Three strategies from Study 1 were tested against a control group for their ability to change consumer attitudes...

  9. Theoretic models for recommendation and implementation of assistive technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Cristina de Jesus Alves

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The latest international researches seek to understand the factors affecting the successful use of assistive technology devices through studies regarding the assessments systematizing; abandonment of devices; or theoric models that consider the aspects of those devices implementation. In Brazil the researches are focused on developing new technologies and there are still not sufficient studies related to the successful use of devices and ways of assistive technology implementation. Objective: To identify conceptual models used for indication and implementation of assistive technology devices. Method: Literature review. The survey was conducted in six databases: CINAHAL, Eric, GALE, LILACS, MEDLINE e PsycInfo. A critical analysis described by Grant and Booth was used. Results: There are no records of a Brazilian survey and among 29 selected articles, 17 conceptual models used in the area of AT were found; of these, 14 were specific to AT. The results showed that the new conceptual models of TA are under development and the conceptual model “Matching Person and Technology – MPT” was the most mentioned. Conclusion: We can observe that the practices related to TA area in international context shows a correlation with conceptual models, thus, we hope this study might have the capacity to contribute for the propagation of this precepts at national level

  10. Dynamic properties of the Solow model with bounded technological progress and time-to-build technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerrini, Luca; Sodini, Mauro

    2014-01-01

    We introduce a time-to-build technology in a Solow model with bounded technological progress. Our analysis shows that the system may be asymptotically stable, or it can produce stability switches and Hopf bifurcations when time delay varies. The direction and the stability criteria of the bifurcating periodic solutions are obtained by the normal form theory and the center manifold theorem. Numerical simulations confirms the theoretical results.

  11. Choice of theoretical model for beam scattering at accelerator output foil for particle energy determination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balagyra, V.S.; Ryabka, P.M.

    1999-01-01

    For measuring the charged particle energy calculations of mean square angles of electron beam multiple Coulomb scattering at output combined accelerator target were undertaken according to seven theoretical models. Mollier method showed the best agreement with experiments

  12. From Occasional Choices to Inevitable Musts: A Computational Model of Nicotine Addiction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Selin Metin

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Although, there are considerable works on the neural mechanisms of reward-based learning and decision making, and most of them mention that addiction can be explained by malfunctioning in these cognitive processes, there are very few computational models. This paper focuses on nicotine addiction, and a computational model for nicotine addiction is proposed based on the neurophysiological basis of addiction. The model compromises different levels ranging from molecular basis to systems level, and it demonstrates three different possible behavioral patterns which are addict, nonaddict, and indecisive. The dynamical behavior of the proposed model is investigated with tools used in analyzing nonlinear dynamical systems, and the relation between the behavioral patterns and the dynamics of the system is discussed.

  13. From occasional choices to inevitable musts: a computational model of nicotine addiction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metin, Selin; Sengor, N Serap

    2012-01-01

    Although, there are considerable works on the neural mechanisms of reward-based learning and decision making, and most of them mention that addiction can be explained by malfunctioning in these cognitive processes, there are very few computational models. This paper focuses on nicotine addiction, and a computational model for nicotine addiction is proposed based on the neurophysiological basis of addiction. The model compromises different levels ranging from molecular basis to systems level, and it demonstrates three different possible behavioral patterns which are addict, nonaddict, and indecisive. The dynamical behavior of the proposed model is investigated with tools used in analyzing nonlinear dynamical systems, and the relation between the behavioral patterns and the dynamics of the system is discussed.

  14. The methodology of choice Cam-Clay model parameters for loess subsoil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nepelski, Krzysztof; Błazik-Borowa, Ewa

    2018-01-01

    The paper deals with the calibration method of FEM subsoil model described by the constitutive Cam-Clay model. The four-storey residential building and solid substrate are modelled. Identification of the substrate is made using research drilling, CPT static tests, DMT Marchetti dilatometer, and laboratory tests. Latter are performed on the intact soil specimens which are taken from the wide planning trench at the depth of foundation. The real building settlements was measured as the vertical displacement of benchmarks. These measurements were carried out periodically during the erection of the building and its operation. Initially, the Cam Clay model parameters were determined on the basis of the laboratory tests, and later, they were corrected by taking into consideration numerical analyses results (whole building and its parts) and real building settlements.

  15. A conceptual model of channel choice : measuring online and offline shopping value perceptions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Broekhuizen, Thijs L.J.; Jager, Wander

    2004-01-01

    This study tries to understand how consumers evaluate channels for their purchasing. Specifically, it develops a conceptual model that addresses consumer value perceptions of using the Internet versus the traditional (physical) channel. Previous research showed that perceptions of price, product

  16. Formulation, Implementation and Examination of Vertical Coordinate Choices in the Global Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Barron, Charlie N; Kara, A. B; Martin, Paul J; Rhodes, Robert C; Smedstad, Lucy F

    2006-01-01

    .... NCOM is a baroclinic, hydrostatic, Boussinesq, free-surface ocean model that allows its vertical coordinate to consist of sigma coordinates for the upper layers and z-levels below a user-specified depth...

  17. Beyond technology acceptance to effective technology use: a parsimonious and actionable model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holahan, Patricia J; Lesselroth, Blake J; Adams, Kathleen; Wang, Kai; Church, Victoria

    2015-05-01

    To develop and test a parsimonious and actionable model of effective technology use (ETU). Cross-sectional survey of primary care providers (n = 53) in a large integrated health care organization that recently implemented new medication reconciliation technology. Surveys assessed 5 technology-related perceptions (compatibility with work values, implementation climate, compatibility with work processes, perceived usefulness, and ease of use) and 1 outcome variable, ETU. ETU was measured as both consistency and quality of technology use. Compatibility with work values and implementation climate were found to have differential effects on consistency and quality of use. When implementation climate was strong, consistency of technology use was high. However, quality of technology use was high only when implementation climate was strong and values compatibility was high. This is an important finding and highlights the importance of users' workplace values as a key determinant of quality of use. To extend our effectiveness in implementing new health care information technology, we need parsimonious models that include actionable determinants of ETU and account for the differential effects of these determinants on the multiple dimensions of ETU. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  18. Energy demand analytics using coupled technological and economic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Impacts of a range of policy scenarios on end-use energy demand are examined using a coupling of MARKAL, an energy system model with extensive supply and end-use technological detail, with Inforum LIFT, a large-scale model of the us. economy with inter-industry, government, and c...

  19. Mouse Xenograft Model for Mesothelioma | NCI Technology Transfer Center | TTC

    Science.gov (United States)

    The National Cancer Institute is seeking parties interested in collaborative research to co-develop, evaluate, or commercialize a new mouse model for monoclonal antibodies and immunoconjugates that target malignant mesotheliomas. Applications of the technology include models for screening compounds as potential therapeutics for mesothelioma and for studying the pathology of mesothelioma.

  20. Changing Models for Researching Pedagogy with Information and Communications Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, M.

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines changing models of pedagogy by drawing on recent research with teachers and their students as well as theoretical developments. In relation to a participatory view of learning, the paper reviews existing pedagogical models that take little account of the use of information and communications technologies as well as those that…