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Sample records for technology choice model

  1. Modeling energy technology choices. Which investment analysis tools are appropriate?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, B.E.

    1994-01-01

    A variety of tools from modern investment theory appear to hold promise for unraveling observed energy technology investment behavior that often appears anomalous when analyzed using traditional investment analysis methods. This paper reviews the assumptions and important insights of the investment theories most commonly suggested as candidates for explaining the apparent ''energy technology investment paradox''. The applicability of each theory is considered in the light of important aspects of energy technology investment problems, such as sunk costs, uncertainty and imperfect information. The theories addressed include the capital asset pricing model, the arbitrage pricing theory, and the theory of irreversible investment. Enhanced net present value methods are also considered. (author)

  2. Sustainable Mobility: Using a Global Energy Model to Inform Vehicle Technology Choices in a Decarbonized Economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothy Wallington

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The reduction of CO2 emissions associated with vehicle use is an important element of a global transition to sustainable mobility and is a major long-term challenge for society. Vehicle and fuel technologies are part of a global energy system, and assessing the impact of the availability of clean energy technologies and advanced vehicle technologies on sustainable mobility is a complex task. The global energy transition (GET model accounts for interactions between the different energy sectors, and we illustrate its use to inform vehicle technology choices in a decarbonizing economy. The aim of this study is to assess how uncertainties in future vehicle technology cost, as well as how developments in other energy sectors, affect cost-effective fuel and vehicle technology choices. Given the uncertainties in future costs and efficiencies for light-duty vehicle and fuel technologies, there is no clear fuel/vehicle technology winner that can be discerned at the present time. We conclude that a portfolio approach with research and development of multiple fuel and vehicle technology pathways is the best way forward to achieve the desired result of affordable and sustainable personal mobility. The practical ramifications of this analysis are illustrated in the portfolio approach to providing sustainable mobility adopted by the Ford Motor Company.

  3. ParaChoice Model.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heimer, Brandon Walter [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Levinson, Rebecca Sobel [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); West, Todd H. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-12-01

    Analysis with the ParaChoice model addresses three barriers from the VTO Multi-Year Program Plan: availability of alternative fuels and electric charging station infrastructure, availability of AFVs and electric drive vehicles, and consumer reluctance to purchase new technologies. In this fiscal year, we first examined the relationship between the availability of alternative fuels and station infrastructure. Specifically, we studied how electric vehicle charging infrastructure affects the ability of EVs to compete with vehicles that rely on mature, conventional petroleum-based fuels. Second, we studied how the availability of less costly AFVs promotes their representation in the LDV fleet. Third, we used ParaChoice trade space analyses to help inform which consumers are reluctant to purchase new technologies. Last, we began analysis of impacts of alternative energy technologies on Class 8 trucks to isolate those that may most efficaciously advance HDV efficiency and petroleum use reduction goals.

  4. Predictors of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics choice options: A meta-analytic path analysis of the social-cognitive choice model by gender and race/ethnicity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lent, Robert W; Sheu, Hung-Bin; Miller, Matthew J; Cusick, Megan E; Penn, Lee T; Truong, Nancy N

    2018-01-01

    We tested the interest and choice portion of social-cognitive career theory (SCCT; Lent, Brown, & Hackett, 1994) in the context of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) domains. Data from 143 studies (including 196 independent samples) conducted over a 30-year period (1983 through 2013) were subjected to meta-analytic path analyses. The interest/choice model was found to fit the data well over all samples as well as within samples composed primarily of women and men and racial/ethnic minority and majority persons. The model also accounted for large portions of the variance in interests and choice goals within each path analysis. Despite the general predictive utility of SCCT across gender and racial/ethnic groups, we did find that several parameter estimates differed by group. We present both the group similarities and differences and consider their implications for future research, intervention, and theory refinement. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  5. Business Cases for Microgrids: Modeling Interactions of Technology Choice, Reliability, Cost, and Benefit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanna, Ryan

    Distributed energy resources (DERs), and increasingly microgrids, are becoming an integral part of modern distribution systems. Interest in microgrids--which are insular and autonomous power networks embedded within the bulk grid--stems largely from the vast array of flexibilities and benefits they can offer stakeholders. Managed well, they can improve grid reliability and resiliency, increase end-use energy efficiency by coupling electric and thermal loads, reduce transmission losses by generating power locally, and may reduce system-wide emissions, among many others. Whether these public benefits are realized, however, depends on whether private firms see a "business case", or private value, in investing. To this end, firms need models that evaluate costs, benefits, risks, and assumptions that underlie decisions to invest. The objectives of this dissertation are to assess the business case for microgrids that provide what industry analysts forecast as two primary drivers of market growth--that of providing energy services (similar to an electric utility) as well as reliability service to customers within. Prototypical first adopters are modeled--using an existing model to analyze energy services and a new model that couples that analysis with one of reliability--to explore interactions between technology choice, reliability, costs, and benefits. The new model has a bi-level hierarchy; it uses heuristic optimization to select and size DERs and analytical optimization to schedule them. It further embeds Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate reliability as well as regression models for customer damage functions to monetize reliability. It provides least-cost microgrid configurations for utility customers who seek to reduce interruption and operating costs. Lastly, the model is used to explore the impact of such adoption on system-wide greenhouse gas emissions in California. Results indicate that there are, at present, co-benefits for emissions reductions when customers

  6. Rational customs clearance technology choice

    OpenAIRE

    Shramenko, N.; Andriets, V.

    2008-01-01

    Issues concerning cargo delivery efficiencyincrease by choice of rational customs clearance technology have been considered. Three possible variants of customs clearance andmethods which allow to define the most rational version of cargo delivery in international road communication based on main efficiency criteria for definite distance have been presented.

  7. Comparison of Vehicle Choice Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stephens, Thomas S. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Levinson, Rebecca S. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Brooker, Aaron [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Liu, Changzheng [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Lin, Zhenhong [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Birky, Alicia [Energetics Incorporated, Columbia, MD (United States); Kontou, Eleftheria [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-10-31

    Five consumer vehicle choice models that give projections of future sales shares of light-duty vehicles were compared by running each model using the same inputs, where possible, for two scenarios. The five models compared — LVCFlex, MA3T, LAVE-Trans, ParaChoice, and ADOPT — have been used in support of the Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Vehicle Technologies Office in analyses of future light-duty vehicle markets under different assumptions about future vehicle technologies and market conditions. The models give projections of sales shares by powertrain technology. Projections made using common, but not identical, inputs showed qualitative agreement, with the exception of ADOPT. ADOPT estimated somewhat lower advanced vehicle shares, mostly composed of hybrid electric vehicles. Other models projected large shares of multiple advanced vehicle powertrains. Projections of models differed in significant ways, including how different technologies penetrated cars and light trucks. Since the models are constructed differently and take different inputs, not all inputs were identical, but were the same or very similar where possible. Projections by all models were in close agreement only in the first few years. Although the projections from LVCFlex, MA3T, LAVE-Trans, and ParaChoice were in qualitative agreement, there were significant differences in sales shares given by the different models for individual powertrain types, particularly in later years (2030 and later). For example, projected sales shares of conventional spark-ignition vehicles in 2030 for a given scenario ranged from 35% to 74%. Reasons for such differences are discussed, recognizing that these models were not developed to give quantitatively accurate predictions of future sales shares, but to represent vehicles markets realistically and capture the connections between sales and important influences. Model features were also compared at a high level, and suggestions for further comparison

  8. Energy Choices. Choices for future technology development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Billfalk, Lennart; Haegermark, Harald

    2009-03-01

    In the next few years political decisions lie ahead in Sweden and the EU regarding the detailed formulation of the EU's so-called 20-20-20 targets and accompanying EU directives. Talks on a new international post-2012 climate agreement are imminent. The EU targets involve reducing emissions of greenhouse gases by 20 per cent, increasing the proportion of renewable energy by 20 per cent and improving energy efficiency by 20 per cent - all by the year 2020. According to the analysis of the consequences of the targets that the Technology Development Group has commissioned, the reduction in carbon dioxide in the stationary energy system in the Nordic region will be 40 per cent, not 20 per cent, if all the EU targets are to be achieved. The biggest socio-economic cost is associated with achieving the efficiency target, followed by the costs associated with achieving the renewable energy target and the CO 2 target. On the basis of this analysis and compilations about technology development, we want to highlight the following important key issues: Does Sweden want to have the option of nuclear power in the future or not? How to choose good policy instruments for new electricity production and networks? How best to reduce the carbon dioxide emissions of the transport sector and how to develop control and incentive measures that promote such a development? We are proposing the following: Carry out a more in-depth analysis of the consequences of the EU targets, so that the policy instruments produce the best combination as regards climate, economy and security of supply. To achieve the EU targets would require large investments in electricity production, particularly renewable energy, and in electricity networks. Internationally harmonized policy instruments and other incentive measures are required in order for the necessary investments to take place. The policy instruments have to provide a level playing field for all players in the energy sector. The large investments

  9. Comparison of Vehicle Choice Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stephens, Thomas S. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Levinson, Rebecca S. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Brooker, Aaron [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Liu, Changzheng [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Lin, Zhenhong [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Birky, Alicia [Energetics Incorporated, Columbia, MD (United States); Kontou, Eleftheria [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-10-01

    Five consumer vehicle choice models that give projections of future sales shares of light-duty vehicles were compared by running each model using the same inputs, where possible, for two scenarios. The five models compared — LVCFlex, MA3T, LAVE-Trans, ParaChoice, and ADOPT — have been used in support of the Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Vehicle Technologies Office in analyses of future light-duty vehicle markets under different assumptions about future vehicle technologies and market conditions. The models give projections of sales shares by powertrain technology. Projections made using common, but not identical, inputs showed qualitative agreement, with the exception of ADOPT. ADOPT estimated somewhat lower advanced vehicle shares, mostly composed of hybrid electric vehicles. Other models projected large shares of multiple advanced vehicle powertrains. Projections of models differed in significant ways, including how different technologies penetrated cars and light trucks. Since the models are constructed differently and take different inputs, not all inputs were identical, but were the same or very similar where possible.

  10. End use technology choice in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS): An analysis of the residential and commercial building sectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilkerson, Jordan T.; Cullenward, Danny; Davidian, Danielle; Weyant, John P.

    2013-01-01

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is arguably the most influential energy model in the United States. The U.S. Energy Information Administration uses NEMS to generate the federal government's annual long-term forecast of national energy consumption and to evaluate prospective federal energy policies. NEMS is considered such a standard tool that other models are calibrated to its forecasts, in both government and academic practice. As a result, NEMS has a significant influence over expert opinions of plausible energy futures. NEMS is a massively detailed model whose inner workings, despite its prominence, receive relatively scant critical attention. This paper analyzes how NEMS projects energy demand in the residential and commercial sectors. In particular, we focus on the role of consumers' preferences and financial constraints, investigating how consumers choose appliances and other end-use technologies. We identify conceptual issues in the approach the model takes to the same question across both sectors. Running the model with a range of consumer preferences, we estimate the extent to which this issue impacts projected consumption relative to the baseline model forecast for final energy demand in the year 2035. In the residential sector, the impact ranges from a decrease of 0.73 quads (− 6.0%) to an increase of 0.24 quads (+ 2.0%). In the commercial sector, the impact ranges from a decrease of 1.0 quads (− 9.0%) to an increase of 0.99 quads (+ 9.0%). - Highlights: • This paper examines the impact of consumer preferences on final energy in the Commercial and Residential sectors of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). • We describe the conceptual and empirical basis for modeling consumer technology choice in NEMS. • We offer a range of alternative parameters to show the energy demand sensitivity to technology choice. • We show there are significant potential savings available in both building sectors. • Because the model uses its own

  11. Optimal technology choice and investment timing: A stochastic model of industrial cogeneration vs. heat-only production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wickart, Marcel; Madlener, Reinhard

    2007-01-01

    In this paper we develop an economic model that explains the decision-making problem under uncertainty of an industrial firm that wants to invest in a process technology. More specifically, the decision is between making an irreversible investment in a combined heat-and-power production (cogeneration) system, or to invest in a conventional heat-only generation system (steam boiler) and to purchase all electricity from the grid. In our model we include the main economic and technical variables of the investment decision process. We also account for the risk and uncertainty inherent in volatile energy prices that can greatly affect the valuation of the investment project. The dynamic stochastic model presented allows us to simultaneously determine the optimal technology choice and investment timing. We apply the theoretical model and illustrate our main findings with a numerical example that is based on realistic cost values for industrial oil- or gas-fired cogeneration and heat-only generation in Switzerland. We also briefly discuss expected effects of a CO 2 tax on the investment decision

  12. Making Choices in the Virtual World: The New Model at United Technologies Information Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gulliford, Bradley

    1998-01-01

    Describes changes in services of the United Technologies Corporation Information Network from a traditional library system to a virtual system of World Wide Web sites, a document-delivery unit, telephone and e-mail reference, and desktop technical support to provide remote access. Staff time, security, and licensing issues are addressed.…

  13. Choice of pesticide fate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balderacchi, Matteo; Trevisan, Marco; Vischetti, Costantino

    2006-01-01

    The choice of a pesticide fate model at field scale is linked to the available input data. The article describes the available pesticide fate models at a field scale and the guidelines for the choice of the suitable model as function of the data input requested [it

  14. Capacity choice, technology mix and market power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meunier, Guy

    2010-01-01

    This paper investigates strategic capacity choices in electricity markets comprised of heterogeneous firms. Long term strategic investments are analyzed assuming that the wholesale market is competitive. There are two technologies available to produce electricity; both are efficient and used at a first best optimum. When not all firms can invest in both technologies, there can be over investment in either of these technologies. It is shown that if the number of firms that can invest in a particular technology is limited, the development of competition solely using the other technology can decrease welfare. (author)

  15. Modeling the dynamics of choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baum, William M; Davison, Michael

    2009-06-01

    A simple linear-operator model both describes and predicts the dynamics of choice that may underlie the matching relation. We measured inter-food choice within components of a schedule that presented seven different pairs of concurrent variable-interval schedules for 12 food deliveries each with no signals indicating which pair was in force. This measure of local choice was accurately described and predicted as obtained reinforcer sequences shifted it to favor one alternative or the other. The effect of a changeover delay was reflected in one parameter, the asymptote, whereas the effect of a difference in overall rate of food delivery was reflected in the other parameter, rate of approach to the asymptote. The model takes choice as a primary dependent variable, not derived by comparison between alternatives-an approach that agrees with the molar view of behaviour.

  16. Market Integration, Choice of Technology and Welfare

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Jørgen Drud; Nielsen, Jørgen Ulff-Møller

    2010-01-01

    technologies. Market integration may induce a technological restructuring where firms either diversify their technologies or switch to a homogeneous technology. In general, market integration improves welfare. However, a small decrease of trade costs which induces a switch from heterogeneous technologies...... to a homogeneous technology may locally reduce global welfare. The model also shows that productivity differences lead to intra-industry firm heterogeneity in size and exports similar to the "new-new" trade models with monopolistic competition....

  17. New Route Choice Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Otto Anker

    udgave af SUE, der rummer to typer stokastiske faktorer - den ene beskriver trafikanters 'oplevede' rejsemodstande på stræknings-niveauet (som i den traditionelle SUE), mens den anden beskriver forskelle i trafikanternes præferen-cer. Denne model har vist sig at give en mere realistisk beskrivelse af...

  18. A Case Study of Technology Choices by High School Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owens-Hartman, Amy R.

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this case study was to examine student technology choices when given the freedom to choose technology devices to complete a project-based learning activity in a content area of study. The study also analyzed factors affecting technology choice as well as how technology proficiency scores aligned to technology choices. Patterns and…

  19. Misclassification in binary choice models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Meyer, B. D.; Mittag, Nikolas

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 200, č. 2 (2017), s. 295-311 ISSN 0304-4076 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GJ16-07603Y Institutional support: Progres-Q24 Keywords : measurement error * binary choice models * program take-up Subject RIV: AH - Economics OBOR OECD: Economic Theory Impact factor: 1.633, year: 2016

  20. Misclassification in binary choice models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Meyer, B. D.; Mittag, Nikolas

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 200, č. 2 (2017), s. 295-311 ISSN 0304-4076 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : measurement error * binary choice models * program take-up Subject RIV: AH - Economics OBOR OECD: Economic Theory Impact factor: 1.633, year: 2016

  1. Modelling Choice of Information Sources

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agha Faisal Habib Pathan

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses the significance of traveller information sources including mono-modal and multimodal websites for travel decisions. The research follows a decision paradigm developed earlier, involving an information acquisition process for travel choices, and identifies the abstract characteristics of new information sources that deserve further investigation (e.g. by incorporating these in models and studying their significance in model estimation. A Stated Preference experiment is developed and the utility functions are formulated by expanding the travellers' choice set to include different combinations of sources of information. In order to study the underlying choice mechanisms, the resulting variables are examined in models based on different behavioural strategies, including utility maximisation and minimising the regret associated with the foregone alternatives. This research confirmed that RRM (Random Regret Minimisation Theory can fruitfully be used and can provide important insights for behavioural studies. The study also analyses the properties of travel planning websites and establishes a link between travel choices and the content, provenance, design, presence of advertisements, and presentation of information. The results indicate that travellers give particular credence to governmentowned sources and put more importance on their own previous experiences than on any other single source of information. Information from multimodal websites is more influential than that on train-only websites. This in turn is more influential than information from friends, while information from coachonly websites is the least influential. A website with less search time, specific information on users' own criteria, and real time information is regarded as most attractive

  2. Energy-saving technology choices by Dutch glasshouse firms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pietola, K.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.

    2006-01-01

    This paper estimates a sequence of energy-saving technology choices by Dutch glasshouse firms. The model allows for time-constant, firm-specific effects and serial correlation of errors and it is estimated on panel data over the period 1991¿1995. The unobserved error sequences are simulated in the

  3. Consumer Vehicle Choice Model Documentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Changzheng [ORNL; Greene, David L [ORNL

    2012-08-01

    In response to the Fuel Economy and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions standards, automobile manufacturers will need to adopt new technologies to improve the fuel economy of their vehicles and to reduce the overall GHG emissions of their fleets. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has developed the Optimization Model for reducing GHGs from Automobiles (OMEGA) to estimate the costs and benefits of meeting GHG emission standards through different technology packages. However, the model does not simulate the impact that increased technology costs will have on vehicle sales or on consumer surplus. As the model documentation states, “While OMEGA incorporates functions which generally minimize the cost of meeting a specified carbon dioxide (CO2) target, it is not an economic simulation model which adjusts vehicle sales in response to the cost of the technology added to each vehicle.” Changes in the mix of vehicles sold, caused by the costs and benefits of added fuel economy technologies, could make it easier or more difficult for manufacturers to meet fuel economy and emissions standards, and impacts on consumer surplus could raise the costs or augment the benefits of the standards. Because the OMEGA model does not presently estimate such impacts, the EPA is investigating the feasibility of developing an adjunct to the OMEGA model to make such estimates. This project is an effort to develop and test a candidate model. The project statement of work spells out the key functional requirements for the new model.

  4. Mathematical learning instruction and teacher motivation factors affecting science technology engineering and math (STEM) major choices in 4-year colleges and universities: Multilevel structural equation modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ahlam

    2011-12-01

    Using the Educational Longitudinal Study of 2002/06, this study examined the effects of the selected mathematical learning and teacher motivation factors on graduates' science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) related major choices in 4-year colleges and universities, as mediated by math performance and math self-efficacy. Using multilevel structural equation modeling, I analyzed: (1) the association between mathematical learning instruction factors (i.e., computer, individual, and lecture-based learning activities in mathematics) and students' STEM major choices in 4-year colleges and universities as mediated by math performance and math self-efficacy and (2) the association between school factor, teacher motivation and students' STEM major choices in 4-year colleges and universities via mediators of math performance and math self-efficacy. The results revealed that among the selected learning experience factors, computer-based learning activities in math classrooms yielded the most positive effects on math self-efficacy, which significantly predicted the increase in the proportion of students' STEM major choice as mediated by math self-efficacy. Further, when controlling for base-year math Item Response Theory (IRT) scores, a positive relationship between individual-based learning activities in math classrooms and the first follow-up math IRT scores emerged, which related to the high proportion of students' STEM major choices. The results also indicated that individual and lecture-based learning activities in math yielded positive effects on math self-efficacy, which related to STEM major choice. Concerning between-school levels, teacher motivation yielded positive effects on the first follow up math IRT score, when controlling for base year IRT score. The results from this study inform educators, parents, and policy makers on how mathematics instruction can improve student math performance and encourage more students to prepare for STEM careers. Students

  5. Disagreements, Employee spinoffs and the Choice of Technology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thompson, Peter; Chen, Jing

    2011-01-01

    Most existing models of employee spinoffs assume they are driven by a desire to implement new ideas. However, history is replete with examples of spinoffs that were launched to continue with old ideas that their parents were in the process of abandoning. We develop a model of technology choice...... in which spinoffs may form to implement new or old technologies. A team of managers engaged in production using technology x, is considering switching to technology y. The value of y is not known and disagreements may emerge among team members. Managers who develop sufficiently strong disagreements...... with their colleagues choose to form new companies to implement their preferred strategy. Two distinct classes of spinoffs arise. In the first, a spinoff forms when an employee comes to believe it is worth adopting y but the firm does not. In the second, a spinoff arises when an employee sufficiently disagrees...

  6. Future implications of China's energy-technology choices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larson, E.D.; Wu Zongxin; DeLaquil, Pat; Chen Wenying; Gao Pengfei

    2003-01-01

    This paper summarizes an assessment of future energy-technology strategies for China that explored the prospects for China to continue its social and economic development while ensuring national energy-supply security and promoting environmental sustainability over the next 50 years. The MARKAL energy-system modeling tool was used to build a model of China's energy system representing all sectors of the economy and including both energy conversion and end-use technologies. Different scenarios for the evolution of the energy system from 1995 to 2050 were explored, enabling insights to be gained into different energy development choices. The analysis indicates a business-as-usual strategy that relies on coal combustion technologies would not be able to meet all environmental and energy security goals. However, an advanced technology strategy emphasizing (1) coal gasification technologies co-producing electricity and clean liquid and gaseous energy carriers (polygeneration), with below-ground storage of some captured CO 2 ; (2) expanded use of renewable energy sources (especially wind and modern biomass); and (3) end-use efficiency would enable China to continue social and economic development through at least the next 50 years while ensuring security of energy supply and improved local and global environmental quality. Surprisingly, even when significant limitations on carbon emissions were stipulated, the model calculated that an advanced energy technology strategy using our technology-cost assumptions would not incur a higher cumulative (1995-2050) total discounted energy system cost than the business-as-usual strategy. To realize such an advanced technology strategy, China will need policies and programs that encourage the development, demonstration and commercialization of advanced clean energy conversion technologies and that support aggressive end-use energy efficiency improvements

  7. Discrete choice modeling of season choice for Minnesota turkey hunters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeder, Susan A.; Fulton, David C.; Cornicelli, Louis; Merchant, Steven S.

    2018-01-01

    Recreational turkey hunting exemplifies the interdisciplinary nature of modern wildlife management. Turkey populations in Minnesota have reached social or biological carrying capacities in many areas, and changes to turkey hunting regulations have been proposed by stakeholders and wildlife managers. This study employed discrete stated choice modeling to enhance understanding of turkey hunter preferences about regulatory alternatives. We distributed mail surveys to 2,500 resident turkey hunters. Results suggest that, compared to season structure and lotteries, additional permits and level of potential interference from other hunters most influenced hunter preferences for regulatory alternatives. Low hunter interference was preferred to moderate or high interference. A second permit issued only to unsuccessful hunters was preferred to no second permit or permits for all hunters. Results suggest that utility is not strictly defined by harvest or an individual's material gain but can involve preference for other outcomes that on the surface do not materially benefit an individual. Discrete stated choice modeling offers wildlife managers an effective way to assess constituent preferences related to new regulations before implementing them. 

  8. Process and Context in Choice Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ben-Akiva, Moshe; Palma, André de; McFadden, Daniel

    2012-01-01

    . The extended choice framework includes more behavioral richness through the explicit representation of the planning process preceding an action and its dynamics and the effects of context (family, friends, and market) on the process leading to a choice, as well as the inclusion of new types of subjective data...... in choice models. We discuss the key issues involved in applying the extended framework, focusing on richer data requirements, theories, and models, and present three partial demonstrations of the proposed framework. Future research challenges include the development of more comprehensive empirical tests...

  9. Democratisation of AAC Symbol Choices Using Technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Draffan, E A; Wald, Mike; Zeinoun, Nadine; Banes, David

    2017-01-01

    The use of an online voting system has been developed to enable democratic choices of newly designed symbols to support speech, language and literacy skills in a localisation situation. The system works for those using and supporting Augmentative and Alternative Communication (AAC) symbols on electronic systems by the provision of simplified scales of acceptance and adapted grids. The methodology and results highlighted the importance of user participation at the outset and concrete examples of symbol adaptations that were found necessary to ensure higher levels of user satisfaction. Design changes included appropriate local dress codes, linguistic nuances, social settings, the built environment and religious sensitivities.

  10. Consumer choice of theme parks : a conjoint choice model of seasonality effects and variety seeking behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kemperman, A.D.A.M.; Borgers, A.W.J.; Oppewal, H.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2000-01-01

    Most existing mathematical models of tourist choice behavior assume that individuals' preferences for choice alternatives remain invariant over time. Although the assumption of invariant preference functions may be reasonable in some choice contexts, this study examines the hypothesis that

  11. Parameter Estimation for Thurstone Choice Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vojnovic, Milan [London School of Economics (United Kingdom); Yun, Seyoung [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-04-24

    We consider the estimation accuracy of individual strength parameters of a Thurstone choice model when each input observation consists of a choice of one item from a set of two or more items (so called top-1 lists). This model accommodates the well-known choice models such as the Luce choice model for comparison sets of two or more items and the Bradley-Terry model for pair comparisons. We provide a tight characterization of the mean squared error of the maximum likelihood parameter estimator. We also provide similar characterizations for parameter estimators defined by a rank-breaking method, which amounts to deducing one or more pair comparisons from a comparison of two or more items, assuming independence of these pair comparisons, and maximizing a likelihood function derived under these assumptions. We also consider a related binary classification problem where each individual parameter takes value from a set of two possible values and the goal is to correctly classify all items within a prescribed classification error. The results of this paper shed light on how the parameter estimation accuracy depends on given Thurstone choice model and the structure of comparison sets. In particular, we found that for unbiased input comparison sets of a given cardinality, when in expectation each comparison set of given cardinality occurs the same number of times, for a broad class of Thurstone choice models, the mean squared error decreases with the cardinality of comparison sets, but only marginally according to a diminishing returns relation. On the other hand, we found that there exist Thurstone choice models for which the mean squared error of the maximum likelihood parameter estimator can decrease much faster with the cardinality of comparison sets. We report empirical evaluation of some claims and key parameters revealed by theory using both synthetic and real-world input data from some popular sport competitions and online labor platforms.

  12. TAFV Alternative Fuels and Vehicles Choice Model Documentation; TOPICAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greene, D.L.

    2001-01-01

    A model for predicting choice of alternative fuel and among alternative vehicle technologies for light-duty motor vehicles is derived. The nested multinomial logit (NML) mathematical framework is used. Calibration of the model is based on information in the existing literature and deduction based on assuming a small number of key parameters, such as the value of time and discount rates. A spreadsheet model has been developed for calibration and preliminary testing of the model

  13. Discrete choice models with multiplicative error terms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; Bierlaire, Michel

    2009-01-01

    The conditional indirect utility of many random utility maximization (RUM) discrete choice models is specified as a sum of an index V depending on observables and an independent random term ε. In general, the universe of RUM consistent models is much larger, even fixing some specification of V due...

  14. Socioeconomic constraints on the technological choices in rural sewage treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Baojing; Fan, Liangcong; Ying, Zechun; Xu, Qingshan; Luo, Weidong; Ge, Ying; Scott, Steffanie; Chang, Jie

    2016-10-01

    Technological innovation is one of the potential engines to mitigate environmental pollution. However, the implementation of new technologies sometimes fails owing to socioeconomic constraints from different stakeholders. Thus, it is essential to analyze constraints of environmental technologies in order to build a pathway for their implementation. In this study, taking three technologies on rural sewage treatment in Hangzhou, China as a case study, i.e., wastewater treatment plant (WTP), constructed wetland (CW), and biogas system, we analyzed how socioeconomic constraints affect the technological choices. Results showed that socioeconomic constraints play a key role through changing the relative opportunity cost of inputs from government as compared to that of residents to deliver the public good-sewage treatment-under different economic levels. Economic level determines the technological choice, and the preferred sewage treatment technologies change from biogas system to CW and further to WTP along with the increase of economic level. Mismatch of technological choice and economic level results in failures of rural sewage treatment, e.g., the CW only work well in moderately developed regions in Hangzhou. This finding expands the environmental Kuznets law by introducing the coproduction theory into analysis (i.e., inputs from both government and residents are essential for the delivery of public goods and services such as good environmental quality). A match between technology and socioeconomic conditions is essential to the environmental governance.

  15. Choice experiments versus revealed choice models : a before-after study of consumer spatial shopping behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Timmermans, H.J.P.; Borgers, A.W.J.; Waerden, van der P.J.H.J.

    1992-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to compare a set of multinomial logit models derived from revealed choice data and a decompositional choice model derived from experimental data in terms of predictive success in the context of consumer spatial shopping behavior. Data on consumer shopping choice

  16. A Model of Boundedly Rational Consumer Choice

    OpenAIRE

    Thomas Riechmann

    2000-01-01

    The paper presents an extended version of the standard textbook problem of consumer choice. As usual, agents have to decide about their desired quatities of various consumption goods, at the same time taking into account their limited budget. Prices for the goods are not fixed but arise from a Walrasian interaction of total demand and a stilized supply function for each of the goods. After showing that this type of model cannot be solved analytically, three different types of evolutionary alg...

  17. Airport choice model in multiple airport regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Muñoz

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This study aims to analyze travel choices made by air transportation users in multi airport regions because it is a crucial component when planning passenger redistribution policies. The purpose of this study is to find a utility function which makes it possible to know the variables that influence users’ choice of the airports on routes to the main cities in the Colombian territory. Design/methodology/approach: This research generates a Multinomial Logit Model (MNL, which is based on the theory of maximizing utility, and it is based on the data obtained on revealed and stated preference surveys applied to users who reside in the metropolitan area of Aburrá Valley (Colombia. This zone is the only one in the Colombian territory which has two neighboring airports for domestic flights. The airports included in the modeling process were Enrique Olaya Herrera (EOH Airport and José María Córdova (JMC Airport. Several structure models were tested, and the MNL proved to be the most significant revealing the common variables that affect passenger airport choice include the airfare, the price to travel the airport, and the time to get to the airport. Findings and Originality/value: The airport choice model which was calibrated corresponds to a valid powerful tool used to calculate the probability of each analyzed airport of being chosen for domestic flights in the Colombian territory. This is done bearing in mind specific characteristic of each of the attributes contained in the utility function. In addition, these probabilities will be used to calculate future market shares of the two airports considered in this study, and this will be done generating a support tool for airport and airline marketing policies.

  18. Hybrid Compensatory-Noncompensatory Choice Sets in Semicompensatory Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Bekhor, Shlomo; Shiftan, Yoram

    2013-01-01

    Semicompensatory models represent a choice process consisting of an elimination-based choice set formation on satisfaction of criterion thresholds and a utility-based choice. Current semicompensatory models assume a purely noncompensatory choice set formation and therefore do not support multinom...

  19. A constraints-induced model of park choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stemerding, M.P.; Oppewal, H.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    1999-01-01

    Conjoint choice models have been used widely in the consumer-choice literature as an approach to measure and predict consumer-choice behavior. These models typically assume that consumer preferences and choice rules are independent from any constraints that might impact the behavior of interest.

  20. Power Generation Technology Choice in the Presence of Climate Policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pettersson, Fredrik

    2005-01-01

    The overall purpose of this thesis is to analyze power generation technology choices in the presence of climate policy. Special attention is paid to the diffusion of renewable power technologies following a carbon pricing policy, and this topic is analyzed in two self-contained papers. The overall objective of paper 1 is to analyze how future investments in the Swedish power sector can be affected by carbon pricing policies following the Kyoto Protocol. In the first part we focus on the price of carbon following the Kyoto commitments and to what extent this policy will affect the relative competitiveness of the available investment alternatives. The second part pays attention to the possible impacts of technology learning - and the resulting cost decreases - on the economics of power generation in the presence of climate policy. The first part considers the majority of power generation technologies available in Sweden, while the second part focuses solely on the competition between combined cycle natural gas plants and the cheapest renewable power alternative, wind power. Methodologically, we approach the above issues from the perspective of a power generator who considers investing in new generation capacity. This implies that we first of all assess the lifetime engineering costs of different power generation technologies in Sweden, and analyze the impact of carbon pricing on the competitive cost position of these technologies under varying rate-of-return requirements. Overall the results indicate that in general it is not certain that compliance with the Kyoto commitments implies substantial increases in renewable power sources. If, therefore, renewable power sources are favored for reasons beyond climate policy additional policy instruments will be needed. The purpose of paper 2 is to analyze the costs for reducing CO 2 emissions in the power-generating sectors in Croatia, the European part of Russia, Macedonia, Serbia and the Ukraine in 2020 by using a linear

  1. Use of the AHP methodology in system dynamics: Modelling and simulation for health technology assessments to determine the correct prosthesis choice for hernia diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Improta, Giovanni; Russo, Mario Alessandro; Triassi, Maria; Converso, Giuseppe; Murino, Teresa; Santillo, Liberatina Carmela

    2018-05-01

    Health technology assessments (HTAs) are often difficult to conduct because of the decisive procedures of the HTA algorithm, which are often complex and not easy to apply. Thus, their use is not always convenient or possible for the assessment of technical requests requiring a multidisciplinary approach. This paper aims to address this issue through a multi-criteria analysis focusing on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). This methodology allows the decision maker to analyse and evaluate different alternatives and monitor their impact on different actors during the decision-making process. However, the multi-criteria analysis is implemented through a simulation model to overcome the limitations of the AHP methodology. Simulations help decision-makers to make an appropriate decision and avoid unnecessary and costly attempts. Finally, a decision problem regarding the evaluation of two health technologies, namely, the evaluation of two biological prostheses for incisional infected hernias, will be analysed to assess the effectiveness of the model. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Variable selection and model choice in geoadditive regression models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kneib, Thomas; Hothorn, Torsten; Tutz, Gerhard

    2009-06-01

    Model choice and variable selection are issues of major concern in practical regression analyses, arising in many biometric applications such as habitat suitability analyses, where the aim is to identify the influence of potentially many environmental conditions on certain species. We describe regression models for breeding bird communities that facilitate both model choice and variable selection, by a boosting algorithm that works within a class of geoadditive regression models comprising spatial effects, nonparametric effects of continuous covariates, interaction surfaces, and varying coefficients. The major modeling components are penalized splines and their bivariate tensor product extensions. All smooth model terms are represented as the sum of a parametric component and a smooth component with one degree of freedom to obtain a fair comparison between the model terms. A generic representation of the geoadditive model allows us to devise a general boosting algorithm that automatically performs model choice and variable selection.

  3. Model for understanding consumer textural food choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeltema, Melissa; Beckley, Jacqueline; Vahalik, Jennifer

    2015-05-01

    The current paradigm for developing products that will match the marketing messaging is flawed because the drivers of product choice and satisfaction based on texture are misunderstood. Qualitative research across 10 years has led to the thesis explored in this research that individuals have a preferred way to manipulate food in their mouths (i.e., mouth behavior) and that this behavior is a major driver of food choice, satisfaction, and the desire to repurchase. Texture, which is currently thought to be a major driver of product choice, is a secondary factor, and is important only in that it supports the primary driver-mouth behavior. A model for mouth behavior is proposed and the qualitative research supporting the identification of different mouth behaviors is presented. The development of a trademarked typing tool for characterizing mouth behavior is described along with quantitative substantiation of the tool's ability to group individuals by mouth behavior. The use of these four groups to understand textural preferences and the implications for a variety of areas including product design and weight management are explored.

  4. Modelling the evolution and consequences of mate choice

    OpenAIRE

    Tazzyman, S. J.

    2010-01-01

    This thesis considers the evolution and the consequences of mate choice across a variety of taxa, using game theoretic, population genetic, and quantitative genetic modelling techniques. Part I is about the evolution of mate choice. In chapter 2, a population genetic model shows that mate choice is even beneficial in self-fertilising species such as Saccharomyces yeast. In chapter 3, a game theoretic model shows that female choice will be strongly dependent upon whether the benefi...

  5. Sequential and simultaneous choices: testing the diet selection and sequential choice models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freidin, Esteban; Aw, Justine; Kacelnik, Alex

    2009-03-01

    We investigate simultaneous and sequential choices in starlings, using Charnov's Diet Choice Model (DCM) and Shapiro, Siller and Kacelnik's Sequential Choice Model (SCM) to integrate function and mechanism. During a training phase, starlings encountered one food-related option per trial (A, B or R) in random sequence and with equal probability. A and B delivered food rewards after programmed delays (shorter for A), while R ('rejection') moved directly to the next trial without reward. In this phase we measured latencies to respond. In a later, choice, phase, birds encountered the pairs A-B, A-R and B-R, the first implementing a simultaneous choice and the second and third sequential choices. The DCM predicts when R should be chosen to maximize intake rate, and SCM uses latencies of the training phase to predict choices between any pair of options in the choice phase. The predictions of both models coincided, and both successfully predicted the birds' preferences. The DCM does not deal with partial preferences, while the SCM does, and experimental results were strongly correlated to this model's predictions. We believe that the SCM may expose a very general mechanism of animal choice, and that its wider domain of success reflects the greater ecological significance of sequential over simultaneous choices.

  6. Improving behavioral realism in hybrid energy-economy models using discrete choice studies of personal transportation decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horne, M.; Jaccard, M.; Tiedemann, K.

    2005-01-01

    Hybrid energy-economy models combine top-down and bottom-up approaches to explore behaviorally realistic responses to technology-focused policies. This research uses empirically derived discrete choice models to inform key behavioral parameters in CIMS, a hybrid model. The discrete choice models are estimated for vehicle and commuting decisions from a survey of 1150 Canadians. With the choice models integrated into CIMS, we simulate carbon taxes, gasoline vehicle disincentives, and single occupancy vehicle disincentives to show how different policy levers can motivate technological change. We also use the empirical basis for the choice models to portray uncertainty in technological change, costs, and emissions. (author)

  7. Choices and Changes: Eccles' Expectancy-Value Model and Upper-Secondary School Students' Longitudinal Reflections about Their Choice of a STEM Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lykkegaard, Eva; Ulriksen, Lars

    2016-01-01

    During the past 30 years, Eccles' comprehensive social-psychological Expectancy-Value Model of Motivated Behavioural Choices (EV-MBC model) has been proven suitable for studying educational choices related to Science, Technology, Engineering and/or Mathematics (STEM). The reflections of 15 students in their last year in upper-secondary school…

  8. An Analysis of the Impact of Student-Scientist Interaction in a Technology Design Activity, Using the Expectancy-Value Model of Achievement Related Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masson, Anne-Lotte; Klop, Tanja; Osseweijer, Patricia

    2016-01-01

    Many education initiatives in science and technology education aim to create enthusiasm among young people to pursue a career in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM). Research suggests that personal interaction between secondary school students and scientists could be a success factor, but there is a need for more in-depth…

  9. Modelling life trajectories and mode choice using Bayesian belief networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhoeven, M.

    2010-01-01

    Traditionally, transport mode choice was primarily examined as a stand alone problem. Given a purpose and destination, the choice of transport mode was modelled as a function of the various attributes of the transport mode alternatives. Later, transport mode choice decisions were modelled as part of

  10. Technology choice in a least-cost expansion analysis framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guziel, K.A.; South, D.W.

    1990-01-01

    This paper reports that the current outlook for new capacity additions by electric utilities is uncertain and tenuous. Regardless of the amount, it is inevitable that new capacity will be needed in the 1990s and beyond. The fundamental question about the additional capacity requirements centers on technology choice and the factors influencing the decision process. Under current market conditions, utilities have become capital aversive due to rate base disallowances by state regulatory commissions, difficulties in funding long-term capital-intensive projects, uncertainties about future demand, and the ability to purchase power from sources such as independent power producers (IPPs) and cogenerators. Instead of building capital-intensive power plants, utilities have begun relying on natural gas technologies, which permit rapid construction/deployment and low capital investment

  11. Meta-analysis of choice set generation effects on route choice model estimates and predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    are applied for model estimation and results are compared to the ‘true model estimates’. Last, predictions from the simulation of models estimated with objective choice sets are compared to the ‘postulated predicted routes’. A meta-analytical approach allows synthesizing the effect of judgments......Large scale applications of behaviorally realistic transport models pose several challenges to transport modelers on both the demand and the supply sides. On the supply side, path-based solutions to the user assignment equilibrium problem help modelers in enhancing the route choice behavior...... modeling, but require them to generate choice sets by selecting a path generation technique and its parameters according to personal judgments. This paper proposes a methodology and an experimental setting to provide general indications about objective judgments for an effective route choice set generation...

  12. An economic model of amniocentesis choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fajnzylber, Eduardo; Hotz, V Joseph; Sanders, Seth G

    2010-03-01

    Medical practitioners typically utilize the following protocol when advising pregnant women about testing for the possibility of genetic disorders with their fetus: Pregnant women over the age of 35 should be tested for Down syndrome and other genetic disorders, while for younger women, such tests are discouraged (or not discussed) as the test can cause a pregnancy to miscarry. The logic appears compelling. The rate at which amniocentesis causes a pregnancy to miscarry is constant while the rate of genetic disorder rises substantially over a woman's reproductive years. Hence the potential benefit from testing - being able to terminate a fetus that is known to have a genetic disorder - rises with maternal age. This article argues that this logic is incomplete. While the benefits to testing do rise with age, the costs rise as well. Undergoing an amniocentesis always entails the risk of inducing a miscarriage of a healthy fetus. However, these costs are lower at early ages, because there is a higher probability of being able to replace a miscarried fetus with a healthy birth at a later age. We develop and calibrate a dynamic model of amniocentesis choice to explore this tradeoff. For parameters that characterize realistic age patterns of chromosomal abnormalities, fertility rates and miscarriages following amniocentesis, our model implies a falling, rather than rising, rate of amniocentesis as women approach menopause.

  13. Adopt or Adapt: Sanitation Technology Choices in Urbanizing Malawi.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chunga, Richard M; Ensink, Jeroen H J; Jenkins, Marion W; Brown, Joe

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents the results of a mixed-methods study examining adaptation strategies that property owners in low-income, rapidly urbanizing areas in Malawi adopt to address the limitations of pit latrines, the most common method of disposing human excreta. A particular challenge is lack of space for constructing new latrines as population density increases: traditional practice has been to cap full pits and simply move to a new site, but increasing demands on space require new approaches to extend the service life of latrines. In this context, we collected data on sanitation technology choices from January to September 2013 through 48 in-depth interviews and a stated preference survey targeting 1,300 property owners from 27 low-income urban areas. Results showed that property owners with concern about space for replacing pit latrines were 1.8 times more likely to select pit emptying service over the construction of new pit latrines with a slab floor (p = 0.02) but there was no significant association between concern about space for replacing pit latrines and intention to adopt locally promoted, novel sanitation technology known as ecological sanitation (ecosan). Property owners preferred to adapt existing, known technology by constructing replacement pit latrines on old pit latrine locations, reducing the frequency of replacing pit latrines, or via emptying pit latrines when full. This study highlights potential challenges to adoption of wholly new sanitation technologies, even when they present clear advantages to end users. To scale, alternative sanitation technologies for rapidly urbanising cities should offer clear advantages, be affordable, be easy to use when shared among multiple households, and their design should be informed by existing adaptation strategies and local knowledge.

  14. Understanding student participation and choice in science and technology education

    CERN Document Server

    Dillon, Justin; Ryder, Jim

    2015-01-01

    Drawing on data generated by the EU’s Interests and Recruitment in Science (IRIS) project, this volume examines the issue of young people’s participation in science, technology, engineering and mathematics education. With an especial focus on female participation, the chapters offer analysis deploying varied theoretical frameworks, including sociology, social psychology and gender studies. The material also includes reviews of relevant research in science education and summaries of empirical data concerning student choices in STEM disciplines in five European countries. Featuring both quantitative and qualitative analyses, the book makes a substantial contribution to the developing theoretical agenda in STEM education. It augments available empirical data and identifies strategies in policy-making that could lead to improved participation—and gender balance—in STEM disciplines. The majority of the chapter authors are IRIS project members, with additional chapters written by specially invited contribu...

  15. Modeling Intercity Mode Choice and Airport Choice in the United States

    OpenAIRE

    Ashiabor, Senanu Y.

    2007-01-01

    The aim of this study was to develop a framework to model travel choice behavior in order to estimate intercity travel demand at nation-level in the United States. Nested and mixed logit models were developed to study national-level intercity transportation in the United States. A separate General Aviation airport choice model to estimates General Aviation person-trips and number of aircraft operations though more than 3000 airports was also developed. The combination of the General Aviati...

  16. Fairness hypothesis and managing the risks of societal technology choices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cantor, R.; Rayner, S.

    1986-08-01

    Much of the literature on risk perception and management has asked how society should resolve the question, ''How safe is safe enough'' There has been political and technical disagreement over the types of answers that may be given, as well as over the social values attached to perceived probabilities and magnitudes of various outcomes. Despite controversy, there seems to have been a large measure of consensus that, ''How safe is safe enough'' is the right question to ask. This paper sets out to question that assumption. Various ingenious techniques of risk analysis have sought to discover the real risks inherent in various activities, but from a sociocultural viewpoint it can be seen that no single answer can be given to the problem of adequate safety in a complex society which contains a wide variety of perceptual biases about danger, expectations of the good life, and levels of demand for safety. The paper argues that, from a societal risk-management perspective, we should be addressing a different range of questions that views societal risk as a whole rather than as the sum of individual hazards. Resolving the question, ''How safe is safe enough'' is less important in making societal technology choices than ''How fair is safe enough?'' A recent empirical pilot study is reported which explored the fairness hypotheses in the context of nuclear power. The results indicate that the process of technology choice should recognize explicitly the preferred principles different parties hold with respect to obtaining consent from those affected by the risks, distributing the liabilities, and justifying trust in the relevant institutions. The paper closes with a discussion of future prospects for the fairness approach in areas such as noxious facility siting

  17. Financial Development, the Choice of Technology, and Comparative Advantage

    OpenAIRE

    Gong, Binglin; Zhou, Haiwen

    2017-01-01

    In this general equilibrium model, banks and manufacturing firms engage in oligopolistic competition. A more advanced manufacturing technology has a higher fixed cost but a lower marginal cost of production. We show that manufacturing firms located in a country with a more efficient financial sector choose more advanced technologies and this country has a comparative advantage in the production of manufactured goods. Even though the foreign country has a less developed financial sector tha...

  18. Hybrid discrete choice models: Gained insights versus increasing effort

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mariel, Petr; Meyerhoff, Jürgen

    2016-01-01

    Hybrid choice models expand the standard models in discrete choice modelling by incorporating psychological factors as latent variables. They could therefore provide further insights into choice processes and underlying taste heterogeneity but the costs of estimating these models often significantly increase. This paper aims at comparing the results from a hybrid choice model and a classical random parameter logit. Point of departure for this analysis is whether researchers and practitioners should add hybrid choice models to their suite of models routinely estimated. Our comparison reveals, in line with the few prior studies, that hybrid models gain in efficiency by the inclusion of additional information. The use of one of the two proposed approaches, however, depends on the objective of the analysis. If disentangling preference heterogeneity is most important, hybrid model seems to be preferable. If the focus is on predictive power, a standard random parameter logit model might be the better choice. Finally, we give recommendations for an adequate use of hybrid choice models based on known principles of elementary scientific inference. - Highlights: • The paper compares performance of a Hybrid Choice Model (HCM) and a classical Random Parameter Logit (RPL) model. • The HCM indeed provides insights regarding preference heterogeneity not gained from the RPL. • The RPL has similar predictive power as the HCM in our data. • The costs of estimating HCM seem to be justified when learning more on taste heterogeneity is a major study objective.

  19. Hybrid discrete choice models: Gained insights versus increasing effort

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mariel, Petr, E-mail: petr.mariel@ehu.es [UPV/EHU, Economía Aplicada III, Avda. Lehendakari Aguire, 83, 48015 Bilbao (Spain); Meyerhoff, Jürgen [Institute for Landscape Architecture and Environmental Planning, Technical University of Berlin, D-10623 Berlin, Germany and The Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Duesternbrooker Weg 120, 24105 Kiel (Germany)

    2016-10-15

    Hybrid choice models expand the standard models in discrete choice modelling by incorporating psychological factors as latent variables. They could therefore provide further insights into choice processes and underlying taste heterogeneity but the costs of estimating these models often significantly increase. This paper aims at comparing the results from a hybrid choice model and a classical random parameter logit. Point of departure for this analysis is whether researchers and practitioners should add hybrid choice models to their suite of models routinely estimated. Our comparison reveals, in line with the few prior studies, that hybrid models gain in efficiency by the inclusion of additional information. The use of one of the two proposed approaches, however, depends on the objective of the analysis. If disentangling preference heterogeneity is most important, hybrid model seems to be preferable. If the focus is on predictive power, a standard random parameter logit model might be the better choice. Finally, we give recommendations for an adequate use of hybrid choice models based on known principles of elementary scientific inference. - Highlights: • The paper compares performance of a Hybrid Choice Model (HCM) and a classical Random Parameter Logit (RPL) model. • The HCM indeed provides insights regarding preference heterogeneity not gained from the RPL. • The RPL has similar predictive power as the HCM in our data. • The costs of estimating HCM seem to be justified when learning more on taste heterogeneity is a major study objective.

  20. Harvest choice and timber supply models for forest forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maksym Polyakov; David N Wear

    2010-01-01

    Timber supply has traditionally been modeled using aggregate data, whereas individual harvest choices have been shown to be sensitive to the vintage and condition of forest capital stocks. In this article, we build aggregate supply models for four roundwood products in a seven-state region of the US South directly from stand-level harvest choice models applied to...

  1. A practical test for the choice of mixing distribution in discrete choice models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; Bierlaire, Michel

    2007-01-01

    The choice of a specific distribution for random parameters of discrete choice models is a critical issue in transportation analysis. Indeed, various pieces of research have demonstrated that an inappropriate choice of the distribution may lead to serious bias in model forecast and in the estimated...... means of random parameters. In this paper, we propose a practical test, based on seminonparametric techniques. The test is analyzed both on synthetic and real data, and is shown to be simple and powerful. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved....

  2. Modeling of dynamic conditions of operation of wind turbines (WT and choice of environmentally efficient and energy economic technology of wind power energy transformation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bespalov Vadim

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Wind energy usage is one of the promising areas among renewable energy sources. The article considers a methodical approach to the modeling and selection of environmentally efficient and energy-efficient wind turbines at the design stage, taking into account the characteristics of the natural-territorial complex and the specific anthropogenic load on the territory of the WT location.

  3. Behavioural Models for Route Choice of Passengers in Multimodal Public Transport Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Anderson, Marie Karen

    in the estimation of route choice models of public transport users based upon observed choices. Public transport route choice models have not benefitted from the same technological enhancements as car models because of the necessity (i) to collect additional information concerning lines and transfers, and (ii...... modes, public transport modes, lines, transfers, egress modes) is large. This thesis proposes a doubly stochastic approach for generating alternative routes that are relevant to travellers, since the method allows accounting for both perceived costs of the network elements and heterogeneity......The subject of this thesis is behavioural models for route choice of passengers in multimodal public transport networks. While research in sustainable transport has dedicated much attention toward the determinants of choice between car and sustainable travel options, it has devoted less attention...

  4. A random regret minimization model of travel choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chorus, C.G.; Arentze, T.A.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2008-01-01

    Abstract This paper presents an alternative to Random Utility-Maximization models of travel choice. Our Random Regret-Minimization model is rooted in Regret Theory and provides several useful features for travel demand analysis. Firstly, it allows for the possibility that choices between travel

  5. Technological choices and development: the energy conservation case in the Tunisian industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sellami, H.

    1988-01-01

    The technological choices for an industrial development, especially in a developing country such as Tunisia, may be determined by two opposite principles: the appropriate technologies and the technological short cuts. The methodological approach presented here is based on a comparison of the technological choices for energy conservation in France and in Tunisia. The main energy consuming industrial sectors are analyzed for their technology use and their relative energy consumptions

  6. Advanced Nuclear Fuel Cycle Transitions: Optimization, Modeling Choices, and Disruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlsen, Robert W.

    Many nuclear fuel cycle simulators have evolved over time to help understan the nuclear industry/ecosystem at a macroscopic level. Cyclus is one of th first fuel cycle simulators to accommodate larger-scale analysis with it liberal open-source licensing and first-class Linux support. Cyclus also ha features that uniquely enable investigating the effects of modeling choices o fuel cycle simulators and scenarios. This work is divided into thre experiments focusing on optimization, effects of modeling choices, and fue cycle uncertainty. Effective optimization techniques are developed for automatically determinin desirable facility deployment schedules with Cyclus. A novel method fo mapping optimization variables to deployment schedules is developed. Thi allows relationships between reactor types and scenario constraints to b represented implicitly in the variable definitions enabling the usage o optimizers lacking constraint support. It also prevents wasting computationa resources evaluating infeasible deployment schedules. Deployed power capacit over time and deployment of non-reactor facilities are also included a optimization variables There are many fuel cycle simulators built with different combinations o modeling choices. Comparing results between them is often difficult. Cyclus flexibility allows comparing effects of many such modeling choices. Reacto refueling cycle synchronization and inter-facility competition among othe effects are compared in four cases each using combinations of fleet of individually modeled reactors with 1-month or 3-month time steps. There are noticeable differences in results for the different cases. The larges differences occur during periods of constrained reactor fuel availability This and similar work can help improve the quality of fuel cycle analysi generally There is significant uncertainty associated deploying new nuclear technologie such as time-frames for technology availability and the cost of buildin advanced reactors

  7. Technology choices for the Integrated Beam Experiment (IBX)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leitner, M.A.; Celata, C.M.; Lee, E.P.; Sabbi, G.; Waldron, W.L.; Barnard, J.J.

    2002-10-31

    Over the next three years the research program of the Heavy Ion Fusion Virtual National Laboratory (HIF-VNL), a collaboration among LBNL, LLNL, and PPPL, is focused on separate scientific experiments in the injection, transport and focusing of intense heavy ion beams at currents from 100 mA to 1 A. As a next major step in the HIF-VNL program, we aim for a complete ''source-to-target'' experiment, the Integrated Beam Experiment (IBX). By combining the experience gained in the current separate beam experiments IBX would allow the integrated scientific study of the evolution of a single heavy ion beam at high current ({approx}1 A) through all sections of a possible heavy ion fusion accelerator: the injection, acceleration, compression, and beam focusing. This paper describes the main parameters and technology choices of the planned IBX experiment. IBX will accelerate singly charged potassium or argon ion beams up to 10 MeV final energy and a longitudinal beam compression ratio of 10, resulting in a beam current at target of more than 10 Amperes. Different accelerator cell design options are described in detail: Induction cores incorporating either room temperature pulsed focusing-magnets or superconducting magnets.

  8. Induction Accelerator Technology Choices for the Integrated Beam Experiment (IBX)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leitner, M.A.; Celata, C.M.; Lee, E.P.; Logan, B.G.; Sabbi, G.; Waldron, W.L.; Barnard, J.J.

    2003-01-01

    Over the next three years the research program of the Heavy Ion Fusion Virtual National Laboratory (HIF-VNL), a collaboration among LBNL, LLNL, and PPPL, is focused on separate scientific experiments in the injection, transport and focusing of intense heavy ion beams at currents from 100 mA to 1 A. As a next major step in the HIF-VNL program, we aim for a complete 'source-to-target' experiment, the Integrated Beam Experiment (IBX). By combining the experience gained in the current separate beam experiments IBX would allow the integrated scientific study of the evolution of a single heavy ion beam at high current (∼1 A) through all sections of a possible heavy ion fusion accelerator: the injection, acceleration, compression, and beam focusing.This paper describes the main parameters and technology choices of the planned IBX experiment. IBX will accelerate singly charged potassium or argon ion beams up to 10 MeV final energy and a longitudinal beam compression ratio of 10, resulting in a beam current at target of more than 10 Amperes. Different accelerator cell design options are described in detail: Induction cores incorporating either room temperature pulsed focusing-magnets or superconducting magnets

  9. Incorporating Context Effects into a Choice Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rooderkerk, Robert P.; Van Heerde, Harald J.; Bijmolt, Tammo H. A.

    The behavioral literature provides ample evidence that consumer preferences are partly driven by the context provided by the set of alternatives. Three important context effects are the compromise, attraction, and similarity effects. Because these context effects affect choices in a systematic and

  10. Incorporating context effects into a choice model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bijmolt, T.H.A.; van Heerde, H.J.; Rooderkerk, R.P.

    2011-01-01

    The behavioral literature provides ample evidence that consumer preferences are partly driven by the context provided by the set of alternatives. three important context effects are the compromise, attraction, and similarity effects. because these context effects affect choices in a systematic and

  11. ADOPT: A Historically Validated Light Duty Vehicle Consumer Choice Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brooker, A.; Gonder, J.; Lopp, S.; Ward, J.

    2015-05-04

    The Automotive Deployment Option Projection Tool (ADOPT) is a light-duty vehicle consumer choice and stock model supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office. It estimates technology improvement impacts on U.S. light-duty vehicles sales, petroleum use, and greenhouse gas emissions. ADOPT uses techniques from the multinomial logit method and the mixed logit method estimate sales. Specifically, it estimates sales based on the weighted value of key attributes including vehicle price, fuel cost, acceleration, range and usable volume. The average importance of several attributes changes nonlinearly across its range and changes with income. For several attributes, a distribution of importance around the average value is used to represent consumer heterogeneity. The majority of existing vehicle makes, models, and trims are included to fully represent the market. The Corporate Average Fuel Economy regulations are enforced. The sales feed into the ADOPT stock model. It captures key aspects for summing petroleum use and greenhouse gas emissions This includes capturing the change in vehicle miles traveled by vehicle age, the creation of new model options based on the success of existing vehicles, new vehicle option introduction rate limits, and survival rates by vehicle age. ADOPT has been extensively validated with historical sales data. It matches in key dimensions including sales by fuel economy, acceleration, price, vehicle size class, and powertrain across multiple years. A graphical user interface provides easy and efficient use. It manages the inputs, simulation, and results.

  12. Route Choice Model Based on Game Theory for Commuters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Licai Yang

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The traffic behaviours of commuters may cause traffic congestion during peak hours. Advanced Traffic Information System can provide dynamic information to travellers. Due to the lack of timeliness and comprehensiveness, the provided information cannot satisfy the travellers’ needs. Since the assumptions of traditional route choice model based on Expected Utility Theory conflict with the actual situation, a route choice model based on Game Theory is proposed to provide reliable route choice to commuters in actual situation in this paper. The proposed model treats the alternative routes as game players and utilizes the precision of predicted information and familiarity of traffic condition to build a game. The optimal route can be generated considering Nash Equilibrium by solving the route choice game. Simulations and experimental analysis show that the proposed model can describe the commuters’ routine route choice decisionexactly and the provided route is reliable.

  13. Role of liability preferences in societal technology choices: results of a pilot study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cantor, R.; Rayner, S.; Braid, B.

    1985-01-01

    At the 1984 Annual Meeting of the Society for Risk Analysis, Steve Rayner presented a paper that challenged the conventional wisdom of risk management research. In that paper, he argued that resolving the question, ''How safe is safe enough.'' is less important in making societal technology choices than ''How fair is safe enough.'' Adopting the fairness question as the concern of risk management would imply that the process of technology choice explicitly recognize the preferred principles different parties hold with respect to obtaining consent from those affected by the risks, distributing the liabilities, and justifying trust in the relevant institutions. This paper discusses a recent empirical pilot study which explored the fairness hypothesis in the context of nuclear power. Individual interviews and focus groups were conducted to examine whether or not preferred principles for liability distributions were consistent with those suggested by the cultural characteristics of the constituency. The results suggest that for this type of societal technology choice, violation of these preferred principles may be a major source of the conflict between different constituencies. Additionally, the study contributes towards the development of a new approach in risk management that combines the cultural model of risk perceptions with the decision-theoretic approaches found in economics and psychology

  14. Obligatory Effort [Hishtadlut] as an Explanatory Model: A Critique of Reproductive Choice and Control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teman, Elly; Ivry, Tsipy; Goren, Heela

    2016-06-01

    Studies on reproductive technologies often examine women's reproductive lives in terms of choice and control. Drawing on 48 accounts of procreative experiences of religiously devout Jewish women in Israel and the US, we examine their attitudes, understandings and experiences of pregnancy, reproductive technologies and prenatal testing. We suggest that the concept of hishtadlut-"obligatory effort"-works as an explanatory model that organizes Haredi women's reproductive careers and their negotiations of reproductive technologies. As an elastic category with negotiable and dynamic boundaries, hishtadlut gives ultra-orthodox Jewish women room for effort without the assumption of control; it allows them to exercise discretion in relation to medical issues without framing their efforts in terms of individual choice. Haredi women hold themselves responsible for making their obligatory effort and not for pregnancy outcomes. We suggest that an alternative paradigm to autonomous choice and control emerges from cosmological orders where reproductive duties constitute "obligatory choices."

  15. A nested recursive logit model for route choice analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mai, Tien; Frejinger, Emma; Fosgerau, Mogens

    2015-01-01

    choices and the model does not require any sampling of choice sets. Furthermore, the model can be consistently estimated and efficiently used for prediction.A key challenge lies in the computation of the value functions, i.e. the expected maximum utility from any position in the network to a destination....... The value functions are the solution to a system of non-linear equations. We propose an iterative method with dynamic accuracy that allows to efficiently solve these systems.We report estimation results and a cross-validation study for a real network. The results show that the NRL model yields sensible......We propose a route choice model that relaxes the independence from irrelevant alternatives property of the logit model by allowing scale parameters to be link specific. Similar to the recursive logit (RL) model proposed by Fosgerau et al. (2013), the choice of path is modeled as a sequence of link...

  16. Complexity effects in choice experiments-based models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dellaert, B.G.C.; Donkers, B.; van Soest, A.H.O.

    2012-01-01

    Many firms rely on choice experiment–based models to evaluate future marketing actions under various market conditions. This research investigates choice complexity (i.e., number of alternatives, number of attributes, and utility similarity between the most attractive alternatives) and individual

  17. Bio-energy in Europe: changing technology choices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faaij, Andre P.C.

    2006-01-01

    Bio-energy is seen as one of the key options to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and substitute fossil fuels. This is certainly evident in Europe, where a kaleidoscope of activities and programs was and is executed for developing and stimulating bio-energy. Over the past 10-15 years in the European Union, heat and electricity production from biomass increased with some 2% and 9% per year, respectively, between 1990 and 2000 and biofuel production increased about eight-fold in the same period. Biomass contributed some two-thirds of the total renewable energy production in the European Union (EU) (2000 PJ) or 4% of the total energy supply in 1999. Given the targets for heat, power and biofuels, this contribution may rise to some 10% (6000 PJ) in 2010. Over time, the scale at which bio-energy is being used has increased considerably. This is true for electricity and combined heat and power plants, and how biomass markets are developing from purely regional to international markets, with increasing cross-border trade-flows. So far, national policy programs proved to be of vital importance for the success of the development of bio-energy, which led to very specific technological choices in various countries. For the future, a supra-national approach is desired: comprehensive research development, demonstration and deployment trajectories for key options as biomass integrated gasification/combined cycle and advanced biofuel concepts, develop an international biomass market allowing for international trade and an integral policy approach for bio-energy incorporating energy, agricultural, forestry, waste and industrial policies. The Common Agricultural Policy of the (extended) EU should fully incorporate bio-energy and perennial crops in particular

  18. A day in the city : using conjoint choice experiments to model urban tourists' choice of activity packages

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dellaert, B.G.C.; Borgers, A.W.J.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    1995-01-01

    This paper introduces and tests a conjoint choice experiment approach to modeling urban tourists' choice of activity packages. The joint logit model is introduced as a tool to model choices between combinations of activities and an experimental design approach is proposed that includes attributes

  19. Modeling decisions from experience: How models with a set of parameters for aggregate choices explain individual choices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neha Sharma

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available One of the paradigms (called “sampling paradigm” in judgment and decision-making involves decision-makers sample information before making a final consequential choice. In the sampling paradigm, certain computational models have been proposed where a set of single or distribution parameters is calibrated to the choice proportions of a group of participants (aggregate and hierarchical models. However, currently little is known on how aggregate and hierarchical models would account for choices made by individual participants in the sampling paradigm. In this paper, we test the ability of aggregate and hierarchical models to explain choices made by individual participants. Several models, Ensemble, Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT, Best Estimation and Simulation Techniques (BEAST, Natural-Mean Heuristic (NMH, and Instance-Based Learning (IBL, had their parameters calibrated to individual choices in a large dataset involving the sampling paradigm. Later, these models were generalized to two large datasets in the sampling paradigm. Results revealed that the aggregate models (like CPT and IBL accounted for individual choices better than hierarchical models (like Ensemble and BEAST upon generalization to problems that were like those encountered during calibration. Furthermore, the CPT model, which relies on differential valuing of gains and losses, respectively, performed better than other models during calibration and generalization on datasets with similar set of problems. The IBL model, relying on recency and frequency of sampled information, and the NMH model, relying on frequency of sampled information, performed better than other models during generalization to a challenging dataset. Sequential analyses of results from different models showed how these models accounted for transitions from the last sample to final choice in human data. We highlight the implications of using aggregate and hierarchical models in explaining individual choices

  20. Understanding Student Participation and Choice in Science and Technology Education

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ryder, Jim; Ulriksen, Lars; Bøe, Maria Vetleseter

    2015-01-01

    Many of the chapters in this volume provide reviews of the existing research literature. In this chapter we focus on what the research studies presented in this book have contributed to our understanding of students’ educational choices. The nature of these contributions is varied. Many findings...... corroborate existing research insights, or explore existing perspectives in new educational contexts or across distinct geographical and cultural settings. In some cases our work challenges prevalent accounts of students’ educational choices. This chapter has five themes: theoretical perspectives; choice...

  1. Brand Choice Modeling Modeling Toothpaste Brand Choice: An Empirical Comparison of Artificial Neural Networks and Multinomial Probit Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tolga Kaya

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to compare the performances of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN and Multinomial Probit (MNP approaches in modeling the choice decision within fast moving consumer goods sector. To do this, based on 2597 toothpaste purchases of a panel sample of 404 households, choice models are built and their performances are compared on the 861 purchases of a test sample of 135 households. Results show that ANN's predictions are better while MNP is useful in providing marketing insight.

  2. Technology domains and manpower choice in the restaurant sector

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hjalager, Anne Mette

    1999-01-01

    Five principal technology domains are identified: 1: Technologies that change the concept of time. 2: Technologies that change the flow of materials. 3: Technologies that change the geographical mobility. 4: Technologies that enhance planning, and 5: Technologies that shift processes to and from ...... suppliers. All occupational groups in the restaurant sector are likely to be affected. Most technologies are found to enhance the deskilling of the staff, leaving empowerment opportunities for management levels only....

  3. Choices and Changes: Eccles’ Expectancy-Value Model and Upper-Secondary School Students’ Longitudinal Reflections about their Choice of a STEM Education

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lykkegaard, Eva; Ulriksen, Lars

    2016-01-01

    During the past 30 years, Eccles’ comprehensive social-psychological Expectancy-Value Model of Motivated Behavioural Choices (EV-MBC model) has been proven suitable for studying educational choices related to Science, Technology, Engineering and/or Mathematics (STEM). The reflections of 15 students...... in their last year in upper-secondary school concerning their choice of tertiary education were examined using quantitative EV-MBC surveys and repeated qualitative interviews. This article presents the analyses of three cases in detail. The analytical focus was whether the factors indicated in the EV-MBC model......, and that significant changes in the students’ reflections were not captured by the factors of the EV-MBC model. This questions the validity of the EVMBC surveys. Moreover, the quantitative factors from the EV-MBC model did not sufficiently explain students’ dynamical educational choice processes where students...

  4. A discrete choice approach to define individual parking choice behaviour for the Parkagent model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Khaliq, A.; Van Der Waerden, P.J.H.J.; Janssens, D.

    2017-01-01

    PARKAGENT is an agent based model for simulating parking search in the city. In PARKAGENT, the agents choose a parking spot based on the expected number of free parking spaces, distance to destination and length of parking space. For a true representation of underlying parking choice behaviour of

  5. Models of Affective Decision Making: How Do Feelings Predict Choice?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charpentier, Caroline J; De Neve, Jan-Emmanuel; Li, Xinyi; Roiser, Jonathan P; Sharot, Tali

    2016-06-01

    Intuitively, how you feel about potential outcomes will determine your decisions. Indeed, an implicit assumption in one of the most influential theories in psychology, prospect theory, is that feelings govern choice. Surprisingly, however, very little is known about the rules by which feelings are transformed into decisions. Here, we specified a computational model that used feelings to predict choices. We found that this model predicted choice better than existing value-based models, showing a unique contribution of feelings to decisions, over and above value. Similar to the value function in prospect theory, our feeling function showed diminished sensitivity to outcomes as value increased. However, loss aversion in choice was explained by an asymmetry in how feelings about losses and gains were weighted when making a decision, not by an asymmetry in the feelings themselves. The results provide new insights into how feelings are utilized to reach a decision. © The Author(s) 2016.

  6. Informing water harvesting technology contract design using choice experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarfasa, Solomon; Brouwer, Roy; Sheremet, Oleg; Bouma, Jetske

    2017-10-01

    Introducing water harvesting technology is expected to be more effective and last longer if farm households are involved in their design. The main objective of this study is to inform policymakers in Ethiopia about the most important terms and conditions to incentivize farmers to enter into a contractual agreement to invest in water harvesting on their land. In order to test the influence of the way the specific contractual terms and conditions are communicated to farm households, many of whom are illiterate, a split sample approach is applied with and without visual aids for technical, institutional, and economic contract characteristics. Both samples generate significantly different results, highlighting the importance of how information is conveyed to farm households. This pattern is confirmed when examining the self-reported importance attached to the various contract characteristics. Equality Constrained Latent Class models show that contract characteristics for which visual aids were developed are considered more attentively, emphasizing the importance of adequate communication tools in a developing country context where literacy rates are limited to increase water technology innovation uptake and reduce farm household vulnerability to droughts.

  7. Discrete choice models for commuting interactions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rouwendal, Jan; Mulalic, Ismir; Levkovich, Or

    An emerging quantitative spatial economics literature models commuting interactions by a gravity equation that is mathematically equivalent to a multinomial logit model. This model is widely viewed as restrictive because of the independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA) property that links sub...

  8. Choices and changes: Eccles' Expectancy-Value model and upper-secondary school students' longitudinal reflections about their choice of a STEM education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lykkegaard, Eva; Ulriksen, Lars

    2016-03-01

    During the past 30 years, Eccles' comprehensive social-psychological Expectancy-Value Model of Motivated Behavioural Choices (EV-MBC model) has been proven suitable for studying educational choices related to Science, Technology, Engineering and/or Mathematics (STEM). The reflections of 15 students in their last year in upper-secondary school concerning their choice of tertiary education were examined using quantitative EV-MBC surveys and repeated qualitative interviews. This article presents the analyses of three cases in detail. The analytical focus was whether the factors indicated in the EV-MBC model could be used to detect significant changes in the students' educational choice processes. An important finding was that the quantitative EV-MBC surveys and the qualitative interviews gave quite different results concerning the students' considerations about the choice of tertiary education, and that significant changes in the students' reflections were not captured by the factors of the EV-MBC model. This questions the validity of the EV-MBC surveys. Moreover, the quantitative factors from the EV-MBC model did not sufficiently explain students' dynamical educational choice processes where students in parallel considered several different potential educational trajectories. We therefore call for further studies of the EV-MBC model's use in describing longitudinal choice processes and especially in investigating significant changes.

  9. Building aggregate timber supply models from individual harvest choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maksym Polyakov; David N. Wear; Robert Huggett

    2009-01-01

    Timber supply has traditionally been modelled using aggregate data. In this paper, we build aggregate supply models for four roundwood products for the US state of North Carolina from a stand-level harvest choice model applied to detailed forest inventory. The simulated elasticities of pulpwood supply are much lower than reported by previous studies. Cross price...

  10. A discussion of mode choice models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Otto Anker

    Artiklen diskuterer matematiske modeller for transportmiddelvalg med særlig fokus på modeller, der bygger på nyttefunktioner. I kapitel 3 refereres til et begrænset eksperiment, der viste at den sædvanlige lineære nyttefunktion ikke er tilstrækkelig til at beskrive selv en meget simpel valgsituat...

  11. Do Methodological Choices in Environmental Modeling Bias Rebound Effects? A Case Study on Electric Cars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Font Vivanco, David; Tukker, Arnold; Kemp, René

    2016-10-18

    Improvements in resource efficiency often underperform because of rebound effects. Calculations of the size of rebound effects are subject to various types of bias, among which methodological choices have received particular attention. Modellers have primarily focused on choices related to changes in demand, however, choices related to modeling the environmental burdens from such changes have received less attention. In this study, we analyze choices in the environmental assessment methods (life cycle assessment (LCA) and hybrid LCA) and environmental input-output databases (E3IOT, Exiobase and WIOD) used as a source of bias. The analysis is done for a case study on battery electric and hydrogen cars in Europe. The results describe moderate rebound effects for both technologies in the short term. Additionally, long-run scenarios are calculated by simulating the total cost of ownership, which describe notable rebound effect sizes-from 26 to 59% and from 18 to 28%, respectively, depending on the methodological choices-with favorable economic conditions. Relevant sources of bias are found to be related to incomplete background systems, technology assumptions and sectorial aggregation. These findings highlight the importance of the method setup and of sensitivity analyses of choices related to environmental modeling in rebound effect assessments.

  12. The Dependent Poisson Race Model and Modeling Dependence in Conjoint Choice Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruan, Shiling; MacEachern, Steven N.; Otter, Thomas; Dean, Angela M.

    2008-01-01

    Conjoint choice experiments are used widely in marketing to study consumer preferences amongst alternative products. We develop a class of choice models, belonging to the class of Poisson race models, that describe a "random utility" which lends itself to a process-based description of choice. The models incorporate a dependence structure which…

  13. Modeling route choice criteria from home to major streets: A discrete choice approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose Osiris Vidana-Bencomo

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available A discrete choice model that consists of three sub-models was developed to investigates the route choice criteria of drivers who travel from their homes in the morning to the access point along the major streets that bound the Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs. The first sub-model is a Nested Logit Model (NLM that estimates the probability of a driver has or has no multiple routes, and if the driver has multiple routes, the route selection criteria are based on the access point’s intersection control type or other factors. The second sub-model is a Mixed Logit (MXL model. It estimates the probabilities of the type of intersection control preferred by a driver. The third sub-model is a NLM that estimates the probabilities of a driver selecting his/her route for its shortest travel time or to avoid pedestrian, and if the aim is to take the fastest route, the decision criteria is based on the shortest distance or minimum stops and turns. Data gathered in a questionnaire survey were used to estimate the sub-models. The attributes of the utility functions of the sub-models are the driver’s demographic and trip characteristics. The model provides a means for transportation planners to distribute the total number of home-based trips generated within a TAZ to the access points along the major streets that bound the TAZ.

  14. Agent-based modelling of consumer energy choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rai, Varun; Henry, Adam Douglas

    2016-06-01

    Strategies to mitigate global climate change should be grounded in a rigorous understanding of energy systems, particularly the factors that drive energy demand. Agent-based modelling (ABM) is a powerful tool for representing the complexities of energy demand, such as social interactions and spatial constraints. Unlike other approaches for modelling energy demand, ABM is not limited to studying perfectly rational agents or to abstracting micro details into system-level equations. Instead, ABM provides the ability to represent behaviours of energy consumers -- such as individual households -- using a range of theories, and to examine how the interaction of heterogeneous agents at the micro-level produces macro outcomes of importance to the global climate, such as the adoption of low-carbon behaviours and technologies over space and time. We provide an overview of ABM work in the area of consumer energy choices, with a focus on identifying specific ways in which ABM can improve understanding of both fundamental scientific and applied aspects of the demand side of energy to aid the design of better policies and programmes. Future research needs for improving the practice of ABM to better understand energy demand are also discussed.

  15. Street Choice Logit Model for Visitors in Shopping Districts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ko Kawada

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we propose two models for predicting people’s activity. The first model is the pedestrian distribution prediction (or postdiction model by multiple regression analysis using space syntax indices of urban fabric and people distribution data obtained from a field survey. The second model is a street choice model for visitors using multinomial logit model. We performed a questionnaire survey on the field to investigate the strolling routes of 46 visitors and obtained a total of 1211 street choices in their routes. We proposed a utility function, sum of weighted space syntax indices, and other indices, and estimated the parameters for weights on the basis of maximum likelihood. These models consider both street networks, distance from destination, direction of the street choice and other spatial compositions (numbers of pedestrians, cars, shops, and elevation. The first model explains the characteristics of the street where many people tend to walk or stay. The second model explains the mechanism underlying the street choice of visitors and clarifies the differences in the weights of street choice parameters among the various attributes, such as gender, existence of destinations, number of people, etc. For all the attributes considered, the influences of DISTANCE and DIRECTION are strong. On the other hand, the influences of Int.V, SHOPS, CARS, ELEVATION, and WIDTH are different for each attribute. People with defined destinations tend to choose streets that “have more shops, and are wider and lower”. In contrast, people with undefined destinations tend to choose streets of high Int.V. The choice of males is affected by Int.V, SHOPS, WIDTH (positive and CARS (negative. Females prefer streets that have many shops, and couples tend to choose downhill streets. The behavior of individual persons is affected by all variables. The behavior of people visiting in groups is affected by SHOP and WIDTH (positive.

  16. Street Choice Logit Model for Visitors in Shopping Districts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawada, Ko; Yamada, Takashi; Kishimoto, Tatsuya

    2014-01-01

    In this study, we propose two models for predicting people’s activity. The first model is the pedestrian distribution prediction (or postdiction) model by multiple regression analysis using space syntax indices of urban fabric and people distribution data obtained from a field survey. The second model is a street choice model for visitors using multinomial logit model. We performed a questionnaire survey on the field to investigate the strolling routes of 46 visitors and obtained a total of 1211 street choices in their routes. We proposed a utility function, sum of weighted space syntax indices, and other indices, and estimated the parameters for weights on the basis of maximum likelihood. These models consider both street networks, distance from destination, direction of the street choice and other spatial compositions (numbers of pedestrians, cars, shops, and elevation). The first model explains the characteristics of the street where many people tend to walk or stay. The second model explains the mechanism underlying the street choice of visitors and clarifies the differences in the weights of street choice parameters among the various attributes, such as gender, existence of destinations, number of people, etc. For all the attributes considered, the influences of DISTANCE and DIRECTION are strong. On the other hand, the influences of Int.V, SHOPS, CARS, ELEVATION, and WIDTH are different for each attribute. People with defined destinations tend to choose streets that “have more shops, and are wider and lower”. In contrast, people with undefined destinations tend to choose streets of high Int.V. The choice of males is affected by Int.V, SHOPS, WIDTH (positive) and CARS (negative). Females prefer streets that have many shops, and couples tend to choose downhill streets. The behavior of individual persons is affected by all variables. The behavior of people visiting in groups is affected by SHOP and WIDTH (positive). PMID:25379274

  17. Institutional influences on business model choice by new ventures in the microgenerated energy industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Provance, Mike, E-mail: mprovanc@odu.edu [Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA 23529 (United States); Donnelly, Richard G.; Carayannis, Elias G. [George Washington University, Washington, DC 20052 (United States)

    2011-09-15

    Business model choice plays an important source of competitive advantage for new ventures in the microgeneration sector. Yet, existing literature focuses on strategic management of internal resources as the constraints in this choice process. In the energy sector, external factors may be at least as influential in shaping these business models. This paper examines the roles of politico-institutional and socio-institutional dynamics in the choice of business models for microgeneration ventures. Business models have traditionally been viewed as constructions of the internal values, strategies, and resources of organizations. But, this perspective overlooks the role that external forces have on these models, particularly in more highly institutionalized contexts like microgeneration. When these factors are introduced into the existing framework for business model choice, the business model based less on firm decision-making and more about variables that exist within national innovation systems and political structure, local socio-technological conditions, and cognitive abilities of the entrepreneur and corresponding stakeholders. - Highlights: > This work provides theoretical foundation for variation in microgeneration business models. > Explores institutional influences on strategic view of business model choice. > Compares the nature of microgeneration across geo-political contexts.

  18. Institutional influences on business model choice by new ventures in the microgenerated energy industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Provance, Mike; Donnelly, Richard G.; Carayannis, Elias G.

    2011-01-01

    Business model choice plays an important source of competitive advantage for new ventures in the microgeneration sector. Yet, existing literature focuses on strategic management of internal resources as the constraints in this choice process. In the energy sector, external factors may be at least as influential in shaping these business models. This paper examines the roles of politico-institutional and socio-institutional dynamics in the choice of business models for microgeneration ventures. Business models have traditionally been viewed as constructions of the internal values, strategies, and resources of organizations. But, this perspective overlooks the role that external forces have on these models, particularly in more highly institutionalized contexts like microgeneration. When these factors are introduced into the existing framework for business model choice, the business model based less on firm decision-making and more about variables that exist within national innovation systems and political structure, local socio-technological conditions, and cognitive abilities of the entrepreneur and corresponding stakeholders. - Highlights: → This work provides theoretical foundation for variation in microgeneration business models. → Explores institutional influences on strategic view of business model choice. → Compares the nature of microgeneration across geo-political contexts.

  19. Modeling Dynamic Food Choice Processes to Understand Dietary Intervention Effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcum, Christopher Steven; Goldring, Megan R; McBride, Colleen M; Persky, Susan

    2018-02-17

    Meal construction is largely governed by nonconscious and habit-based processes that can be represented as a collection of in dividual, micro-level food choices that eventually give rise to a final plate. Despite this, dietary behavior intervention research rarely captures these micro-level food choice processes, instead measuring outcomes at aggregated levels. This is due in part to a dearth of analytic techniques to model these dynamic time-series events. The current article addresses this limitation by applying a generalization of the relational event framework to model micro-level food choice behavior following an educational intervention. Relational event modeling was used to model the food choices that 221 mothers made for their child following receipt of an information-based intervention. Participants were randomized to receive either (a) control information; (b) childhood obesity risk information; (c) childhood obesity risk information plus a personalized family history-based risk estimate for their child. Participants then made food choices for their child in a virtual reality-based food buffet simulation. Micro-level aspects of the built environment, such as the ordering of each food in the buffet, were influential. Other dynamic processes such as choice inertia also influenced food selection. Among participants receiving the strongest intervention condition, choice inertia decreased and the overall rate of food selection increased. Modeling food selection processes can elucidate the points at which interventions exert their influence. Researchers can leverage these findings to gain insight into nonconscious and uncontrollable aspects of food selection that influence dietary outcomes, which can ultimately improve the design of dietary interventions.

  20. Heterogeneity in Models of Electoral Choice

    OpenAIRE

    Rivers, Douglas

    1983-01-01

    Heterogeneity or the presence of a variety of decision rules in a population has usually been ignored in voting research. A method for handling heterogeneous preferences using rank order data is developed and applied to a simple issue-voting model. The estimated average effect of partisanship is substantially higher when the assumption of homogeneity is relaxed, though many self-identified partisans also use ideological criteria to evaluate candidates and many independents rely on partisan cr...

  1. A Conceptual Model of Leisure-Time Choice Behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergier, Michel J.

    1981-01-01

    Methods of studying the gap between predisposition and actual behavior of consumers of spectator sports is discussed. A model is drawn from the areas of behavioral sciences, consumer behavior, and leisure research. The model is constructed around the premise that choice is primarily a function of personal, product, and environmental factors. (JN)

  2. Loss Aversion and Inhibition in Dynamical Models of Multialternative Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Usher, Marius; McClelland, James L.

    2004-01-01

    The roles of loss aversion and inhibition among alternatives are examined in models of the similarity, compromise, and attraction effects that arise in choices among 3 alternatives differing on 2 attributes. R. M. Roe, J. R. Busemeyer, and J. T. Townsend (2001) have proposed a linear model in which effects previously attributed to loss aversion…

  3. Modeling Stochastic Route Choice Behaviors with Equivalent Impedance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Li

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A Logit-based route choice model is proposed to address the overlapping and scaling problems in the traditional multinomial Logit model. The nonoverlapping links are defined as a subnetwork, and its equivalent impedance is explicitly calculated in order to simply network analyzing. The overlapping links are repeatedly merged into subnetworks with Logit-based equivalent travel costs. The choice set at each intersection comprises only the virtual equivalent route without overlapping. In order to capture heterogeneity in perception errors of different sizes of networks, different scale parameters are assigned to subnetworks and they are linked to the topological relationships to avoid estimation burden. The proposed model provides an alternative method to model the stochastic route choice behaviors without the overlapping and scaling problems, and it still maintains the simple and closed-form expression from the MNL model. A link-based loading algorithm based on Dial’s algorithm is proposed to obviate route enumeration and it is suitable to be applied on large-scale networks. Finally a comparison between the proposed model and other route choice models is given by numerical examples.

  4. Exclusive queueing model including the choice of service windows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, Masahiro; Yanagisawa, Daichi; Nishinari, Katsuhiro

    2018-01-01

    In a queueing system involving multiple service windows, choice behavior is a significant concern. This paper incorporates the choice of service windows into a queueing model with a floor represented by discrete cells. We contrived a logit-based choice algorithm for agents considering the numbers of agents and the distances to all service windows. Simulations were conducted with various parameters of agent choice preference for these two elements and for different floor configurations, including the floor length and the number of service windows. We investigated the model from the viewpoint of transit times and entrance block rates. The influences of the parameters on these factors were surveyed in detail and we determined that there are optimum floor lengths that minimize the transit times. In addition, we observed that the transit times were determined almost entirely by the entrance block rates. The results of the presented model are relevant to understanding queueing systems including the choice of service windows and can be employed to optimize facility design and floor management.

  5. Accounting Students’ Choice on Accounting Information Technology Careers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nurul Hasanah Uswati Dewi

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The important role of accounting information systems professionals, motivate researchers to analyze further the interest of students to the profession in the field of accounting information systems. The aim of this study explores the factors that influence students to choose and do not choose a profession in the field of accounting information systems.This research was conducted using questionnaires. The population was undergraduate accounting students. Sample research was done randomly.This research shows that the interest in undergraduate accounting students for a career in the field of information systems is very small and this research also appears that the academic supervisor is one of the dominant factors influencing student choice in choosing a career in the field of information systems. Beside this, this study also found that respondents are not interested in a career in accounting information systems more due to that field of information systems is not a career they aspire.

  6. Accounting Students’ Choice on Accounting Information Technology Careers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nurul Hasanah Uswati Dewi

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The important role of accounting information systems professionals, motivate researchers to analyze further the interest of students to the profession in the field of accounting information systems. The aim of this study explores the factors that influence students to choose and do not choose a profession in the field of accounting information systems. This research was conducted using questionnaires. The population was undergraduate accounting students. Sample research was done randomly.This research shows that the interest in undergraduate accounting students for a career in the field of information systems is very small and this research also appears that the academic supervisor is one of the dominant factors influencing student choice in choosing a career in the field of information systems. Beside this, this study also found that respondents are not interested in a career in accounting information systems more due to that field of information systems is not a career they aspire.

  7. A framework for estimating health state utility values within a discrete choice experiment: modeling risky choices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Angela; Spencer, Anne; Moffatt, Peter

    2015-04-01

    There has been recent interest in using the discrete choice experiment (DCE) method to derive health state utilities for use in quality-adjusted life year (QALY) calculations, but challenges remain. We set out to develop a risk-based DCE approach to derive utility values for health states that allowed 1) utility values to be anchored directly to normal health and death and 2) worse than dead health states to be assessed in the same manner as better than dead states. Furthermore, we set out to estimate alternative models of risky choice within a DCE model. A survey was designed that incorporated a risk-based DCE and a "modified" standard gamble (SG). Health state utility values were elicited for 3 EQ-5D health states assuming "standard" expected utility (EU) preferences. The DCE model was then generalized to allow for rank-dependent expected utility (RDU) preferences, thereby allowing for probability weighting. A convenience sample of 60 students was recruited and data collected in small groups. Under the assumption of "standard" EU preferences, the utility values derived within the DCE corresponded fairly closely to the mean results from the modified SG. Under the assumption of RDU preferences, the utility values estimated are somewhat lower than under the assumption of standard EU, suggesting that the latter may be biased upward. Applying the correct model of risky choice is important whether a modified SG or a risk-based DCE is deployed. It is, however, possible to estimate a probability weighting function within a DCE and estimate "unbiased" utility values directly, which is not possible within a modified SG. We conclude by setting out the relative strengths and weaknesses of the 2 approaches in this context. © The Author(s) 2014.

  8. Towards energy efficient distillation technologies - Making the right choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kiss, A.A.; Landaeta, S.J. Flores; Ferreira, C.A.I.

    2012-01-01

    In spite of claiming around half of the operational costs of chemical plants, distillation is still the most popular separation technology. Distillation has low thermodynamic efficiency, requiring the input of high quality energy in the reboiler – while rejecting a similar amount of heat at lower

  9. Your future in Science and Technology: breathtaking opportunities and significant choices

    KAUST Repository

    Metayer, Estelle

    2017-01-01

    A voyage into the technologies which will change our world in the next 20 years. A deep thinking into the responsibilities that will come from the scientific choices we make, and the dilemmas the science and technology community will have to resolve

  10. Towards energy efficient distillation technologies – Making the right choice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiss, Anton A.; Flores Landaeta, Servando J.; Infante Ferreira, Carlos A.

    2012-01-01

    In spite of claiming around half of the operational costs of chemical plants, distillation is still the most popular separation technology. Distillation has low thermodynamic efficiency, requiring the input of high quality energy in the reboiler – while rejecting a similar amount of heat at lower temperature, in the condenser. Several heat pump concepts have been proposed to upgrade that thermal energy and reduce the consumption of valuable utilities. Under certain conditions, the energy savings of heat pump assisted distillation is usually around 20–50%. This study proposes a novel selection scheme of energy efficient distillation technologies, with a special focus on heat pumps. The most promising technologies selected are vapor compression, mechanical or thermal vapor recompression, absorption, compression–resorption and thermo-acoustic heat pumps, multi-effect distillation, heat integrated distillation column, cyclic distillation, Kaibel and dividing-wall column. The scheme considers as the main selection criteria the type of separation tasks, product flow and specifications, operating pressure, difference in boiling points, reboiler duty and its temperature level. Moreover, this scheme is very practical, allowing major time and resources savings in the design of eco-efficient processes. -- Highlights: ► Heat pump assisted distillation with energy savings of 20–50%. ► Novel and practical selection scheme of energy efficient distillation technologies. ► Evaluation of promising technologies: VC, MVR, TVR, AHP, CHRP, TAHP, HIDiC, DWC, CyDist. ► Selection criteria include: ΔT b , ΔT lift , P, T reb , Q reb , volatility. ► Design of eco-efficient processes with high COP, and lower TIC and TAC.

  11. Patient choice modelling: how do patients choose their hospitals?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Honora; Currie, Christine; Chaiwuttisak, Pornpimol; Kyprianou, Andreas

    2018-06-01

    As an aid to predicting future hospital admissions, we compare use of the Multinomial Logit and the Utility Maximising Nested Logit models to describe how patients choose their hospitals. The models are fitted to real data from Derbyshire, United Kingdom, which lists the postcodes of more than 200,000 admissions to six different local hospitals. Both elective and emergency admissions are analysed for this mixed urban/rural area. For characteristics that may affect a patient's choice of hospital, we consider the distance of the patient from the hospital, the number of beds at the hospital and the number of car parking spaces available at the hospital, as well as several statistics publicly available on National Health Service (NHS) websites: an average waiting time, the patient survey score for ward cleanliness, the patient safety score and the inpatient survey score for overall care. The Multinomial Logit model is successfully fitted to the data. Results obtained with the Utility Maximising Nested Logit model show that nesting according to city or town may be invalid for these data; in other words, the choice of hospital does not appear to be preceded by choice of city. In all of the analysis carried out, distance appears to be one of the main influences on a patient's choice of hospital rather than statistics available on the Internet.

  12. Energy Choices. Choices for future technology development; Vaegval Energi. Vaegval foer framtidens teknikutveckling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Billfalk, Lennart; Haegermark, Harald (eds.)

    2009-03-15

    In the next few years political decisions lie ahead in Sweden and the EU regarding the detailed formulation of the EU's so-called 20-20-20 targets and accompanying EU directives. Talks on a new international post-2012 climate agreement are imminent. The EU targets involve reducing emissions of greenhouse gases by 20 per cent, increasing the proportion of renewable energy by 20 per cent and improving energy efficiency by 20 per cent - all by the year 2020. According to the analysis of the consequences of the targets that the Technology Development Group has commissioned, the reduction in carbon dioxide in the stationary energy system in the Nordic region will be 40 per cent, not 20 per cent, if all the EU targets are to be achieved. The biggest socio-economic cost is associated with achieving the efficiency target, followed by the costs associated with achieving the renewable energy target and the CO{sub 2} target. On the basis of this analysis and compilations about technology development, we want to highlight the following important key issues: Does Sweden want to have the option of nuclear power in the future or not? How to choose good policy instruments for new electricity production and networks? How best to reduce the carbon dioxide emissions of the transport sector and how to develop control and incentive measures that promote such a development? We are proposing the following: Carry out a more in-depth analysis of the consequences of the EU targets, so that the policy instruments produce the best combination as regards climate, economy and security of supply. To achieve the EU targets would require large investments in electricity production, particularly renewable energy, and in electricity networks. Internationally harmonized policy instruments and other incentive measures are required in order for the necessary investments to take place. The policy instruments have to provide a level playing field for all players in the energy sector. The large

  13. A simplified model of choice behavior under uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ching-Hung Lin

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT has been standardized as a clinical assessment tool (Bechara, 2007. Nonetheless, numerous research groups have attempted to modify IGT models to optimize parameters for predicting the choice behavior of normal controls and patients. A decade ago, most researchers considered the expected utility (EU model (Busemeyer and Stout, 2002 to be the optimal model for predicting choice behavior under uncertainty. However, in recent years, studies have demonstrated the prospect utility (PU models (Ahn et al., 2008 to be more effective than the EU models in the IGT. Nevertheless, after some preliminary tests, we propose that Ahn et al. (2008 PU model is not optimal due to some incompatible results between our behavioral and modeling data. This study aims to modify Ahn et al. (2008 PU model to a simplified model and collected 145 subjects’ IGT performance as the benchmark data for comparison. In our simplified PU model, the best goodness-of-fit was found mostly while α approaching zero. More specifically, we retested the key parameters α, λ , and A in the PU model. Notably, the power of influence of the parameters α, λ, and A has a hierarchical order in terms of manipulating the goodness-of-fit in the PU model. Additionally, we found that the parameters λ and A may be ineffective when the parameter α is close to zero in the PU model. The present simplified model demonstrated that decision makers mostly adopted the strategy of gain-stay-loss-shift rather than foreseeing the long-term outcome. However, there still have other behavioral variables that are not well revealed under these dynamic uncertainty situations. Therefore, the optimal behavioral models may not have been found. In short, the best model for predicting choice behavior under dynamic-uncertainty situations should be further evaluated.

  14. Incorporating Responsiveness to Marketing Efforts in Brand Choice Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dennis Fok

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available We put forward a brand choice model with unobserved heterogeneity that concerns responsiveness to marketing efforts. We introduce two latent segments of households. The first segment is assumed to respond to marketing efforts, while households in the second segment do not do so. Whether a specific household is a member of the first or the second segment at a specific purchase occasion is described by household-specific characteristics and characteristics concerning buying behavior. Households may switch between the two responsiveness states over time. When comparing the performance of our model with alternative choice models that account for various forms of heterogeneity for three different datasets, we find better face validity for our parameters. Our model also forecasts better.

  15. Situations of Choice: Configuring the Empowered Consumer of Hearing Technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hindhede, Anette Lykke

    2013-01-01

    . The paper shows how recent changes in perception of the hearing impaired patient relate to the introduction of a new health care reform that turns audiological rehabilitation into a consumer issue. Ethnographic and interview data from hearing clinics provides evidence that the hearing technologies...... that are on offer stabilise in specific forms through processes of negotiation among a variety of social actors representing the interests of science, industry, government, and hearing-impaired people. The discussion critically considers the emergence of an ‘‘informed consumer’’ in audiological practices....

  16. Young women in science and technology: The importance of choice

    OpenAIRE

    Dimitriadi, Angeliki

    2013-01-01

    Despite significant improvements in the last couple of years, women are still under-represented in science and technology, both in the academic and private sector. This is due to a variety of reasons, mostly related to the role allocated to women in modern society as well as pre-existing prejudices that form glass ceilings while encouraging male presence in the workplace. It is also however, a result of information or lack of, which places young women in difficult position of making a career ...

  17. Choices of capture chromatography technology in antibody manufacturing processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DiLeo, Michael; Ley, Arthur; Nixon, Andrew E; Chen, Jie

    2017-11-15

    The capture process employed in monoclonal antibody downstream purification is not only the most critically impacted process by increased antibody titer resulting from optimized mammalian cell culture expression systems, but also the most important purification step in determining overall process throughput, product quality, and economics. Advances in separation technology for capturing antibodies from complex feedstocks have been one focus of downstream purification process innovation for past 10 years. In this study, we evaluated new generation chromatography resins used in the antibody capture process including Protein A, cation exchange, and mixed mode chromatography to address the benefits and unique challenges posed by each chromatography approach. Our results demonstrate the benefit of improved binding capacity of new generation Protein A resins, address the concern of high concentration surge caused aggregation when using new generation cation exchange resins with over 100mg/mL binding capacity, and highlight the potential of multimodal cation exchange resins for capture process design. The new landscape of capture chromatography technologies provides options to achieve overall downstream purification outcome with high product quality and process efficiency. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Sample selection and taste correlation in discrete choice transport modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mabit, Stefan Lindhard

    2008-01-01

    explain counterintuitive results in value of travel time estimation. However, the results also point at the difficulty of finding suitable instruments for the selection mechanism. Taste heterogeneity is another important aspect of discrete choice modelling. Mixed logit models are designed to capture...... the question for a broader class of models. It is shown that the original result may be somewhat generalised. Another question investigated is whether mode choice operates as a self-selection mechanism in the estimation of the value of travel time. The results show that self-selection can at least partly...... of taste correlation in willingness-to-pay estimation are presented. The first contribution addresses how to incorporate taste correlation in the estimation of the value of travel time for public transport. Given a limited dataset the approach taken is to use theory on the value of travel time as guidance...

  19. Application of rrm as behavior mode choice on modelling transportation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surbakti, M. S.; Sadullah, A. F.

    2018-03-01

    Transportation mode selection, the first step in transportation planning process, is probably one of the most important planning elements. The development of models that can explain the preference of passengers regarding their chosen mode of public transport option will contribute to the improvement and development of existing public transport. Logit models have been widely used to determine the mode choice models in which the alternative are different transport modes. Random Regret Minimization (RRM) theory is a theory developed from the behavior to choose (choice behavior) in a state of uncertainty. During its development, the theory was used in various disciplines, such as marketing, micro economy, psychology, management, and transportation. This article aims to show the use of RRM in various modes of selection, from the results of various studies that have been conducted both in north sumatera and western Java.

  20. Electricity investments and nuclear development: investment choice modeling based on value creation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tehrani, B.S.; Bocquer, J.C.; Tomoda, T.

    2014-01-01

    While nuclear power may experience a technological breakthrough in Europe with Generation IV nuclear reactors within 2040, several events could question this possibility such as the Fukushima accident, the climate issues and the electricity market liberalization. This paper aims at analyzing investment choices in power generation capacities in the European scope, using simple DSM-inspired approaches. The power company and interacting stake holders in the investment choice process are considered as a complex system, and dependencies between investment drivers associated with each stake holder are studied. Focusing on the value for the power company, the compatibility of each power company with each of considered technologies is assessed through a Domain Mapping Matrix, including not only technical drivers, but also associated policy and market drivers. Technology preferences are modeled for main European companies in a set of scenarios, these preferences being then used to explore trends in generation mix. (authors)

  1. Exploring alternatives to rational choice in models of Behaviour:An investigation using travel mode choice

    OpenAIRE

    Thomas, Gregory Owen

    2014-01-01

    The car is the most popular travel mode in the UK, but reliance on the car has numerous negative effects on health, the economy, and the environment. Encouraging sustainable travel mode choices (modal choice) can minimise these problems. To promote behaviour change, psychologists have an interest in understanding modal choice. Historically, modal choice has been understood as a reasoned and rational decision that requires a conscious assessment of thoughts and attitudes: but evidence suggests...

  2. Exploring nuclear energy scenarios - implications of technology and fuel cycle choices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rayment, Fiona; Mathers, Dan; Gregg, Robert

    2014-01-01

    Nuclear Energy is recognised globally as a mature, reliable low carbon technology with a secure and abundant fuel source. Within the UK, Nuclear Energy is an essential contributor to the energy mix and as such a decision has been made to refresh the current nuclear energy plants to at least replacement of the existing nuclear fleet. This will mean the building of new nuclear power plant to ensure energy production of 16 GWe per annum. However it is also recognised that this may not be enough and as such expansion scenarios ranging from replacement of the existing fleet to 75 GWe nuclear energy capacity are being considered (see appendix). Within these energy scenarios, a variety of options are being evaluated including electricity generation only, electricity generation plus heat, open versus closed fuel cycles, Generation III versus Generation IV systems and combinations of the above. What is clear is that the deciding factor on the type and mix of any energy programme will not be on technology choice alone. Instead a complex mix of Government policy, relative cost of nuclear power, market decisions and public opinion will influence the rate and direction of growth of any future energy programme. The UK National Nuclear Laboratory has supported this work through the use and development of a variety of assessment and modelling techniques. When assessing nuclear energy scenarios, the technology chosen will impact on a number of parameters within each scenario which includes but is not limited to: - Economics, - Nuclear energy demand, - Fuel Supply, - Spent fuel storage / recycle, - Geological repository volumetric and radiological capacity, - Sustainability - effective resource utilisation, - Technology viability and readiness level. A number of assessment and modelling techniques have been developed and are described further. In particular, they examine fuel cycle options for a number of nuclear energy scenarios, whilst exploring key implications for a particular

  3. Understanding Predisposition in College Choice: Toward an Integrated Model of College Choice and Theory of Reasoned Action

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitre, Paul E.; Johnson, Todd E.; Pitre, Charisse Cowan

    2006-01-01

    This article seeks to improve traditional models of college choice that draw from recruitment and enrollment management paradigms. In adopting a consumer approach to college choice, this article seeks to build upon consumer-related research, which centers on behavior and reasoning. More specifically, this article seeks to move inquiry beyond the…

  4. Robustness of public choice models of voting behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihai UNGUREANU

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Modern economics modeling practice involves highly unrealistic assumptions. Since testing such models is not always an easy enterprise, researchers face the problem of determining whether a result is dependent (or not on the unrealistic details of the model. A solution for this problem is conducting robustness analysis. In its classical form, robustness analysis is a non-empirical method of confirmation – it raises our trust in a given result by implying it with from several different models. In this paper I argue that robustness analysis could be thought as a method of post-empirical failure. This form of robustness analysis involves assigning guilt for the empirical failure to a certain part of the model. Starting from this notion of robustness, I analyze a case of empirical failure from public choice theory or the economic approach of politics. Using the fundamental methodological principles of neoclassical economics, the first model of voting behavior implied that almost no one would vote. This was clearly an empirical failure. Public choice scholars faced the problem of either restraining the domain of their discipline or giving up to some of their neoclassical methodological features. The second solution was chosen and several different models of voting behavior were built. I will treat these models as a case for performing robustness analysis and I will determine which assumption from the original model is guilty for the empirical failure.

  5. The best I can be: how self-accountability impacts product choice in technology mediated environments

    OpenAIRE

    Rowe, Zoe O.; Wilson, Hugh; Dimitriu, Radu; Breiter, Katja; Charnley, Fiona

    2017-01-01

    Technology-mediated environments are important not only as the location for an increasing proportion of purchases, but also as an even more pervasive part of the purchase journey. While most research into online consumer behavior focuses on attitudes as an antecedent of product choice, this article focuses on an important but hardly explored variable that may be impacted by technology-mediated environments: self-accountability. Laboratory experiments suggest that self-accountability may influ...

  6. Choices Matter, but How Do We Model Them?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brelsford, C.; Dumas, M.

    2017-12-01

    Quantifying interactions between social systems and the physical environment we live within has long been a major scientific challenge. Humans have had such a large influence on our environment that it is no longer reasonable to consider the behavior of an ecological or hydrological system from a purely `physical' perspective: imagining a system that excludes the influence of human choices and behavior. Understanding the role that human social choices play in the energy water nexus is crucial for developing accurate models in that space. The relatively new field of socio-hydrology is making progress towards understanding the role humans play in hydrological systems. While this fact is now widely recognized across the many academic fields that study water systems, we have yet to develop a coherent set of theories for how to model the behavior of these complex and highly interdependent socio-hydrological systems. How should we conceptualize hydrological systems as socio-ecological systems (i.e. system with variables, states, parameters, actors who can control certain variables and a sense of the desirability of states) within which the rigorous study of feedbacks becomes possible? This talk reviews the state of knowledge of how social decisions around water consumption, allocation, and transport influence and are influenced by the physical hydrology that water also moves within. We cover recent papers in socio-hydrology, engineering, water law, and institutional analysis. There have been several calls within socio-hydrology to model human social behavior endogenously along with the hydrology. These improvements are needed across a range of spatial and temporal scales. We suggest two potential strategies for coupled models that allow endogenous water consumption behavior: a social first model which looks for empirical relationships between water consumption and allocation choices and the hydrological state, and a hydrology first model in which we look for regularities

  7. Impact of Technology and Feedstock Choice on the Environmental Footprint of Biofuels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, P. B.; Dodder, R. S.

    2012-12-01

    The implementation of the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard program (RFS2) has led to a dramatic shift in the use of biofuel in the U.S. transportation system over the last decade. To satisfy this demand, the production of U.S. corn-based ethanol has grown rapidly, with an average increase of over 25% annually from 2002 to 2010. RFS2 requires a similarly steep increase in the production of advanced biofuels, such as cellulosic ethanol. Unlike corn-based ethanol, which is derived from the biochemical fermentation of sugars in wet and dry mills, it is likely that a more diverse suite of technologies will need to be developed to be able to meet the advanced biofuel RFS2 targets, including biochemical as well as thermochemical (e.g., gasification and pyrolysis) approaches. Rather than relying on energy crops, a potential advantage of thermochemical approaches is the ability to use a wider variety of feedstocks, including municipal solid waste and wood waste. In this work, we conduct a system-level analysis to understand how technology and feedstock choice can impact the environmental footprint of biofuels in the U.S. We use a least-cost optimization model of the U.S. energy system to account for interactions between various components of the energy system: industrial, transportation, electric, and residential/commercial sectors. The model was used to understand the scale of feedstock demand required from dedicated energy crops, as well as other biomass feedstocks, in order to meet the RFS2 mandate. On a regional basis, we compare the overall water-consumption and land requirements for biofuels production given a suite of liquid-fuel production technologies. By considering a range of scenarios, we examine how the use of various feedstocks (e.g., agricultural residues, wood wastes, mill residues and municipal wastes) can be used to off-set environmental impacts as compared to relying solely on energy crops.

  8. External technology sourcing : The effect of uncertainty on governance mode choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van de Vrande, V.; Vanhaverbeke, W.P.M.; Duijsters, G.M.

    2009-01-01

    External knowledge sourcing is increasingly important for corporate entrepreneurship. In this study, we examine the effect of external and relational uncertainty on the governance choice for inter-organizational technology sourcing. We develop a number of hypotheses about the impact of environmental

  9. Constructing a multiple choice test to measure elementary school teachers' Pedagogical Content Knowledge of technology education.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rohaan, E.J.; Taconis, R.; Jochems, W.M.G.

    2009-01-01

    This paper describes the construction and validation of a multiple choice test to measure elementary school teachers' Pedagogical Content Knowledge of technology education. Pedagogical Content Knowledge is generally accepted to be a crucial domain of teacher knowledge and is, therefore, an important

  10. Simple model for multiple-choice collective decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ching Hua; Lucas, Andrew

    2014-11-01

    We describe a simple model of heterogeneous, interacting agents making decisions between n≥2 discrete choices. For a special class of interactions, our model is the mean field description of random field Potts-like models and is effectively solved by finding the extrema of the average energy E per agent. In these cases, by studying the propagation of decision changes via avalanches, we argue that macroscopic dynamics is well captured by a gradient flow along E. We focus on the permutation symmetric case, where all n choices are (on average) the same, and spontaneous symmetry breaking (SSB) arises purely from cooperative social interactions. As examples, we show that bimodal heterogeneity naturally provides a mechanism for the spontaneous formation of hierarchies between decisions and that SSB is a preferred instability to discontinuous phase transitions between two symmetric points. Beyond the mean field limit, exponentially many stable equilibria emerge when we place this model on a graph of finite mean degree. We conclude with speculation on decision making with persistent collective oscillations. Throughout the paper, we emphasize analogies between methods of solution to our model and common intuition from diverse areas of physics, including statistical physics and electromagnetism.

  11. Alterations in choice behavior by manipulations of world model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, C S; Benson, C; Kersten, D; Schrater, P

    2010-09-14

    How to compute initially unknown reward values makes up one of the key problems in reinforcement learning theory, with two basic approaches being used. Model-free algorithms rely on the accumulation of substantial amounts of experience to compute the value of actions, whereas in model-based learning, the agent seeks to learn the generative process for outcomes from which the value of actions can be predicted. Here we show that (i) "probability matching"-a consistent example of suboptimal choice behavior seen in humans-occurs in an optimal Bayesian model-based learner using a max decision rule that is initialized with ecologically plausible, but incorrect beliefs about the generative process for outcomes and (ii) human behavior can be strongly and predictably altered by the presence of cues suggestive of various generative processes, despite statistically identical outcome generation. These results suggest human decision making is rational and model based and not consistent with model-free learning.

  12. Transport Choice Modeling for the Evaluation of New Transport Policies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ander Pijoan

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Quantifying the impact of the application of sustainable transport policies is essential in order to mitigate effects of greenhouse gas emissions produced by the transport sector. One of the most common approaches used for this purpose is that of traffic modelling and simulation, which consists of emulating the operation of an entire road network. This article presents the results of fitting 8 well known data science methods for transport choice modelling, the area in which more research is needed. The models have been trained with information from Biscay province in Spain in order to match as many of its commuters as possible. Results show that the best models correctly forecast more than 51% of the trips recorded. Finally, the results have been validated with a second data set from the Silesian Voivodeship in Poland, showing that all models indeed maintain their forecasting ability.

  13. Business and technology integrated model

    OpenAIRE

    Noce, Irapuan; Carvalho, João Álvaro

    2011-01-01

    There is a growing interest in business modeling and architecture in the areas of management and information systems. One of the issues in the area is the lack of integration between the modeling techniques that are employed to support business development and those used for technology modeling. This paper proposes a modeling approach that is capable of integrating the modeling of the business and of the technology. By depicting the business model, the organization structure and the technolog...

  14. Exploring the Influence of Attitudes to Walking and Cycling on Commute Mode Choice Using a Hybrid Choice Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuan Ding

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Transport-related problems, such as automobile dependence, traffic congestion, and greenhouse emissions, lead to a great burden on the environment. In developing countries like China, in order to improve the air quality, promoting sustainable travel modes to reduce the automobile usage is gradually recognized as an emerging national concern. Though there are many studies related to the physically active modes (e.g., walking and cycling, the research on the influence of attitudes to active modes on travel behavior is limited, especially in China. To fill up this gap, this paper focuses on examining the impact of attitudes to walking and cycling on commute mode choice. Using the survey data collected in China cities, an integrated discrete choice model and the structural equation model are proposed. By applying the hybrid choice model, not only the role of the latent attitude played in travel mode choice, but also the indirect effects of social factors on travel mode choice are obtained. The comparison indicates that the hybrid choice model outperforms the traditional model. This study is expected to provide a better understanding for urban planners on the influential factors of green travel modes.

  15. Closing the gap between behavior and models in route choice: The role of spatiotemporal constraints and latent traits in choice set formation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    not account for individual-related spatiotemporal constraints. This paper reduces the gap by proposing a route choice model incorporating spatiotemporal constraints and latent traits. The proposed approach combines stochastic route generation with a latent variable semi-compensatory model representing......A considerable gap exists between the behavioral paradigm of choice set formation in route choice and its representation in route choice modeling. While travelers form their viable choice set by retaining routes that satisfy spatiotemporal constraints, existing route generation techniques do...

  16. Willingness-to-pay for renewable energy. Primary and discretionary choice of British households' for micro-generation technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scarpa, Riccardo; Willis, Ken

    2010-01-01

    This paper documents the policy context of renewable energy production in the European Union. The research adopts a choice experiment approach to investigate households' WTP for these renewable energy technologies in the UK. The micro-generation technologies comprise solar photovoltaic, micro-wind, solar thermal, heat pumps, and biomass boilers and pellet stoves. The study compares the results from conditional and mixed logit models, which estimate the distribution of utility coefficients and then derives WTP values as a ratio of the attribute coefficient to the price coefficient, with a model in which the WTP distribution is estimated directly from utility in the money space. The results suggest that whilst renewable energy adoption is significantly valued by households, this value is not sufficiently large, for the vast majority of households, to cover the higher capital costs of micro-generation energy technologies. (author)

  17. Renewable generation technology choice and policies in a competitive electricity supply industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarkar, Ashok

    Renewable energy generation technologies have lower externality costs but higher private costs than fossil fuel-based generation. As a result, the choice of renewables in the future generation mix could be affected by the industry's future market-oriented structure because market objectives based on private value judgments may conflict with social policy objectives toward better environmental quality. This research assesses how renewable energy generation choices would be affected in a restructured electricity generation market. A multi-period linear programming-based model (Resource Planning Model) is used to characterize today's electricity supply market in the United States. The model simulates long-range (2000-2020) generation capacity planning and operation decisions under alternative market paradigms. Price-sensitive demand is used to simulate customer preferences in the market. Dynamically changing costs for renewables and a two-step load duration curve are used. A Reference Case represents the benchmark for a socially-optimal diffusion of renewables and a basis for comparing outcomes under alternative market structures. It internalizes externality costs associated with emissions of sulfur dioxide (SOsb2), nitrous oxides (NOsbx), and carbon dioxide (COsb2). A Competitive Case represents a market with many generation suppliers and decision-making based on private costs. Finally, a Market Power Case models the extreme case of market power: monopoly. The results suggest that the share of renewables would decrease (and emissions would increase) considerably in both the Competitive and the Market Power Cases with respect to the Reference Case. The reduction is greater in the Market Power Case due to pricing decisions under existing supply capability. The research evaluates the following environmental policy options that could overcome market failures in achieving an appropriate level of renewable generation: COsb2 emissions tax, SOsb2 emissions cap, renewable

  18. Think twice before you book? Modelling the choice of public vs private dentist in a choice experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiiskinen, Urpo; Suominen-Taipale, Anna Liisa; Cairns, John

    2010-06-01

    This study concerns the choice of primary dental service provider by consumers. If the health service delivery system allows individuals to choose between public-care providers or if complementary private services are available, it is typically assumed that utilisation is a three-stage decision process. The patient first makes a decision to seek care, and then chooses the service provider. The final stage, involving decisions over the amount and form of treatment, is not considered here. The paper reports a discrete choice experiment (DCE) designed to evaluate attributes affecting individuals' choice of dental-care provider. The feasibility of the DCE approach in modelling consumers' choice in the context of non-acute need for dental care is assessed. The aim is to test whether a separate two-stage logit, a multinomial logit, or a nested logit best fits the choice process of consumers. A nested logit model of indirect utility functions is estimated and inclusive value (IV) constraints are tested for modelling implications. The results show that non-trading behaviour has an impact on the choice of appropriate modelling technique, but is to some extent dependent on the choice of scenarios offered. It is concluded that for traders multinomial logit is appropriate, whereas for non-traders and on average the nested logit is the method supported by the analyses. The consistent finding in all subgroup analyses is that the traditional two-stage decision process is found to be implausible in the context of consumer's choice of dental-care provider.

  19. Behavioural models of technological change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zeppini, P.

    2011-01-01

    Technological change still remains an important driver of the economy. This thesis studies the endogenous forces of technological change stemming from behavioural interactions within populations of many agents. Four theoretical models are proposed that describe consumers’ and suppliers’ behaviour

  20. Human Nonindependent Mate Choice: Is Model Female Attractiveness Everything?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonios Vakirtzis

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Following two decades of research on non-human animals, there has recently been increased interest in human nonindependent mate choice, namely the ways in which choosing women incorporate information about a man's past or present romantic partners (‘model females’ into their own assessment of the male. Experimental studies using static facial images have generally found that men receive higher desirability ratings from female raters when presented with attractive (compared to unattractive model females. This phenomenon has a straightforward evolutionary explanation: the fact that female mate value is more dependent on physical attractiveness compared to male mate value. Furthermore, due to assortative mating for attractiveness, men who are paired with attractive women are more likely to be of high mate value themselves. Here, we also examine the possible relevance of model female cues other than attractiveness (personality and behavioral traits by presenting video recordings of model females to a set of female raters. The results confirm that the model female's attractiveness is the primary cue. Contrary to some earlier findings in the human and nonhuman literature, we found no evidence that female raters prefer partners of slightly older model females. We conclude by suggesting some promising variations on the present experimental design.

  1. Educational Technology Funding Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark, Amy E.

    2008-01-01

    Library and cross-disciplinary literature all stress the increasing importance of instructional technology in higher education. However, there is a dearth of articles detailing funding for library instructional technology. The bulk of library literature on funding for these projects focuses on one-time grant opportunities and on the architecture…

  2. Business Models and Technological Innovation

    OpenAIRE

    Baden-Fuller, Charles; Haefliger, Stefan

    2013-01-01

    Business models are fundamentally linked with technological innovation, yet the business model construct is essentially separable from technology. We define the business model as a system that solves the problem of identifying who is (or are) the customer(s), engaging with their needs, delivering satisfaction, and monetizing the value. The framework depicts the business model system as a model containing cause and effect relationships, and it provides a basis for classification. We formulate ...

  3. Quantitative genetic models of sexual selection by male choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakahashi, Wataru

    2008-09-01

    There are many examples of male mate choice for female traits that tend to be associated with high fertility. I develop quantitative genetic models of a female trait and a male preference to show when such a male preference can evolve. I find that a disagreement between the fertility maximum and the viability maximum of the female trait is necessary for directional male preference (preference for extreme female trait values) to evolve. Moreover, when there is a shortage of available male partners or variance in male nongenetic quality, strong male preference can evolve. Furthermore, I also show that males evolve to exhibit a stronger preference for females that are more feminine (less resemblance to males) than the average female when there is a sexual dimorphism caused by fertility selection which acts only on females.

  4. Investing in biogas: Timing, technological choice and the value of flexibility from input mix

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Di Corato, Luca; Moretto, Michele

    2011-01-01

    In a stochastic dynamic frame, we study the technology choice problem of a continuous co-digestion biogas plant where input factors are substitutes but need to be mixed together to provide output. Given any initial rule for the composition of the feedstock, we consider the possibility of revising it if economic circumstances make it profitable. Flexibility in the mix is an advantage under randomly fluctuating input costs and comes at a higher investment cost. We show that the degree of flexibility in the productive technology installed depends on the value of the option to profitably re-arrange the input mix. Such option adds value to the project in that it provides a device for hedging against fluctuations in the input relative convenience. Accounting for such value we discuss the trade-off between investment timing and profit smoothing flexibility. - Research highlights: ► We study the technology choice problem of a continuous co-digestion biogas plant where input factors are substitutes but need to be mixed together to provide output. ► We show that the degree of flexibility in the productive technology installed depends on the value of the option to profitably re-arrange the input mix. ► Such option adds value to the project in that it provides a device for hedging against fluctuations in the input relative convenience.

  5. Development of discrete choice model considering internal reference points and their effects in travel mode choice context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarif; Kurauchi, Shinya; Yoshii, Toshio

    2017-06-01

    In the conventional travel behavior models such as logit and probit, decision makers are assumed to conduct the absolute evaluations on the attributes of the choice alternatives. On the other hand, many researchers in cognitive psychology and marketing science have been suggesting that the perceptions of attributes are characterized by the benchmark called “reference points” and the relative evaluations based on them are often employed in various choice situations. Therefore, this study developed a travel behavior model based on the mental accounting theory in which the internal reference points are explicitly considered. A questionnaire survey about the shopping trip to the CBD in Matsuyama city was conducted, and then the roles of reference points in travel mode choice contexts were investigated. The result showed that the goodness-of-fit of the developed model was higher than that of the conventional model, indicating that the internal reference points might play the major roles in the choice of travel mode. Also shown was that the respondents seem to utilize various reference points: some tend to adopt the lowest fuel price they have experienced, others employ fare price they feel in perceptions of the travel cost.

  6. Gender stereotypes among women engineering and technology students in the UK: lessons from career choice narratives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, Abigail; Dainty, Andrew; Bagilhole, Barbara

    2012-12-01

    In the UK, women remain under-represented in engineering and technology (E&T). Research has, therefore, investigated barriers and solutions to women's recruitment, retention and progression. Recruitment into the sector may be supported by exploring the career decisions of women and men who have chosen to study E&T. Triangulating quantitative and qualitative data from E&T students at a UK university, this paper examines the gendered nature of career choice narratives. It finds that women often maintain contradictory views; upholding gendered stereotypes about women's suitability for the so-called masculine work, yet also subscribing to ideals that the sector is accessible to all who wish to work in it. This is explained using an individualist framework in which women construct an autonomous sense of self, yet are also shaped by a gendered self. Women's discourse around career choice, therefore, reveals the problematic nature of gender norms for achieving gender equity in E&T.

  7. Your future in Science and Technology: breathtaking opportunities and significant choices

    KAUST Repository

    Metayer, Estelle

    2017-01-18

    A voyage into the technologies which will change our world in the next 20 years. A deep thinking into the responsibilities that will come from the scientific choices we make, and the dilemmas the science and technology community will have to resolve. Weメll also explore the new industries and jobs that will emerge and how you, in this fascinating new world, will develop the personal skills and toolkit to learn to pick weak signals, probe your blindspots and grow as a leader. Finally, this thought-provoking keynote will demystify the profound impact science and technology will have in the future of work, our relations with each other, and with the world around us.

  8. System Architecture Modeling for Technology Portfolio Management using ATLAS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Robert W.; O'Neil, Daniel A.

    2006-01-01

    Strategic planners and technology portfolio managers have traditionally relied on consensus-based tools, such as Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Quality Function Deployment (QFD) in planning the funding of technology development. While useful to a certain extent, these tools are limited in the ability to fully quantify the impact of a technology choice on system mass, system reliability, project schedule, and lifecycle cost. The Advanced Technology Lifecycle Analysis System (ATLAS) aims to provide strategic planners a decision support tool for analyzing technology selections within a Space Exploration Architecture (SEA). Using ATLAS, strategic planners can select physics-based system models from a library, configure the systems with technologies and performance parameters, and plan the deployment of a SEA. Key parameters for current and future technologies have been collected from subject-matter experts and other documented sources in the Technology Tool Box (TTB). ATLAS can be used to compare the technical feasibility and economic viability of a set of technology choices for one SEA, and compare it against another set of technology choices or another SEA. System architecture modeling in ATLAS is a multi-step process. First, the modeler defines the system level requirements. Second, the modeler identifies technologies of interest whose impact on an SEA. Third, the system modeling team creates models of architecture elements (e.g. launch vehicles, in-space transfer vehicles, crew vehicles) if they are not already in the model library. Finally, the architecture modeler develops a script for the ATLAS tool to run, and the results for comparison are generated.

  9. The Answering Process for Multiple-Choice Questions in Collaborative Learning: A Mathematical Learning Model Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamura, Yasuyuki; Nishi, Shinnosuke; Muramatsu, Yuta; Yasutake, Koichi; Yamakawa, Osamu; Tagawa, Takahiro

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we introduce a mathematical model for collaborative learning and the answering process for multiple-choice questions. The collaborative learning model is inspired by the Ising spin model and the model for answering multiple-choice questions is based on their difficulty level. An intensive simulation study predicts the possibility of…

  10. A Conditional Curie-Weiss Model for Stylized Multi-group Binary Choice with Social Interaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Opoku, Alex Akwasi; Edusei, Kwame Owusu; Ansah, Richard Kwame

    2018-04-01

    This paper proposes a conditional Curie-Weiss model as a model for decision making in a stylized society made up of binary decision makers that face a particular dichotomous choice between two options. Following Brock and Durlauf (Discrete choice with social interaction I: theory, 1955), we set-up both socio-economic and statistical mechanical models for the choice problem. We point out when both the socio-economic and statistical mechanical models give rise to the same self-consistent equilibrium mean choice level(s). Phase diagram of the associated statistical mechanical model and its socio-economic implications are discussed.

  11. Empirical analyses of a choice model that captures ordering among attribute values

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mabit, Stefan Lindhard

    2017-01-01

    an alternative additionally because it has the highest price. In this paper, we specify a discrete choice model that takes into account the ordering of attribute values across alternatives. This model is used to investigate the effect of attribute value ordering in three case studies related to alternative-fuel...... vehicles, mode choice, and route choice. In our application to choices among alternative-fuel vehicles, we see that especially the price coefficient is sensitive to changes in ordering. The ordering effect is also found in the applications to mode and route choice data where both travel time and cost...

  12. Joint Residence-Workplace Location Choice Model Based on Household Decision Behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pengpeng Jiao

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Residence location and workplace are the two most important urban land-use types, and there exist strong interdependences between them. Existing researches often assume that one choice dimension is correlated to the other. Using the mixed logit framework, three groups of choice models are developed to illustrate such choice dependencies. First, for all households, this paper presents a basic methodology of the residence location and workplace choice without decision sequence based on the assumption that the two choice behaviors are independent of each other. Second, the paper clusters all households into two groups, choosing residence or workplace first, and formulates the residence location and workplace choice models under the constraint of decision sequence. Third, this paper combines the residence location and workplace together as the choice alternative and puts forward the joint choice model. A questionnaire survey is implemented in Beijing city to collect the data of 1994 households. Estimation results indicate that the joint choice model fits the data significantly better, and the elasticity effects analyses show that the joint choice model reflects the influences of relevant factors to the choice probability well and leads to the job-housing balance.

  13. Nonparametric Identification and Estimation of Finite Mixture Models of Dynamic Discrete Choices

    OpenAIRE

    Hiroyuki Kasahara; Katsumi Shimotsu

    2006-01-01

    In dynamic discrete choice analysis, controlling for unobserved heterogeneity is an important issue, and finite mixture models provide flexible ways to account for unobserved heterogeneity. This paper studies nonparametric identifiability of type probabilities and type-specific component distributions in finite mixture models of dynamic discrete choices. We derive sufficient conditions for nonparametric identification for various finite mixture models of dynamic discrete choices used in appli...

  14. How robotics programs influence young women's career choices : a grounded theory model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craig, Cecilia Dosh-Bluhm

    The fields of engineering, computer science, and physics have a paucity of women despite decades of intervention by universities and organizations. Women's graduation rates in these fields continue to stagnate, posing a critical problem for society. This qualitative grounded theory (GT) study sought to understand how robotics programs influenced young women's career decisions and the program's effect on engineering, physics, and computer science career interests. To test this, a study was mounted to explore how the FIRST (For Inspiration and Recognition of Science and Technology) Robotics Competition (FRC) program influenced young women's college major and career choices. Career theories suggested that experiential programs coupled with supportive relationships strongly influence career decisions, especially for science, technology, engineering, and mathematics careers. The study explored how and when young women made career decisions and how the experiential program and! its mentors and role models influenced career choice. Online focus groups and interviews (online and face-to-face) with 10 female FRC alumnae and GT processes (inductive analysis, open coding, categorizations using mind maps and content clouds) were used to generate a general systems theory style model of the career decision process for these young women. The study identified gender stereotypes and other career obstacles for women. The study's conclusions include recommendations to foster connections to real-world challenges, to develop training programs for mentors, and to nurture social cohesion, a mostly untapped area. Implementing these recommendations could help grow a critical mass of women in engineering, physics, and computer science careers, a social change worth pursuing.

  15. Marketing Strategic Choices for Wind Technology in China : case: Chinese Domestic Wind Technology Companies

    OpenAIRE

    Shi, Yi

    2011-01-01

    There are almost 80 wind turbine manufacturers in China. However, the supportive government policies are the fact behind the rapid growth of those case companies. In reality, there are less than 10 Chinese wind turbine manufacturers with actual production capacity. Most of them lack core technology and depend in many ways on state patronage. The current situation is worrisome. Therefore, the correct comprehension of wind power market conditions and the consequent adoption of right marketing s...

  16. Marketing strategic choice for wind power technology in China : case: Chinese domestic wind technology companies

    OpenAIRE

    Shi, Yi

    2011-01-01

    There are almost 80 wind turbine manufacturers in China. However, the supportive government policies are the fact behind the rapid growth of those case companies. In reality, there are less than 10 Chinese wind turbine manufacturers with actual production capacity. Most of them lack core technology and depend in many ways on state patronage. The current situation is worrisome. Therefore, the correct comprehension of wind power market conditions and the consequent adoption of right marketing s...

  17. Modeling Fuel Choice among Households in Northern Cameroon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean Hugues Nlom

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The present study aims to explore economic and socio-demographic factors that influence a household’s probability to switch from firewood to cleaner fuels (kerosene and LPG in northern Cameroon. The paper employs an ordered probit model to construct cooking patterns and fuel choices. Three main cooking sources are considered: firewood, kerosene, and liquefied petroleum gas. Utilized data are derived from a national survey conducted in 2004 by the Cameroonian National Institute of Statistics. The study analyzes the data related to the Sudano-Sahelian agro-ecological zone, which is one of the most affected by land degradation and decertification. While results indicate that there is a potential for a transition from traditional to cleaner fuels in the studied region, this transition is still in its earlier stage. The research demonstrates that firewood and kerosene prices, age of household heads, educational level of household heads and willingness to have a gas cylinder, as well as type of dwelling have a statistically significant impact on fuel-switching decisions.

  18. Preventing relapse after incentivized choice treatment: A laboratory model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouton, Mark E; Thrailkill, Eric A; Bergeria, Cecilia L; Davis, Danielle R

    2017-08-01

    Two experiments with rats examined relapse of an operant behavior that occurred after the behavior was suppressed by reinforcing (incentivizing) an alternative behavior. In the first phase, a target response (R1) was reinforced. In a treatment phase, R1 was still reinforced, but a new response (R2) was introduced and associated with a larger reinforcer. As in human contingency management treatments, incentivizing R2 this way was effective at suppressing R1. However, when R2's reinforcement was discontinued, there was a robust and immediate relapse to R1. Experiment 1 found that the strength of R1 during relapse testing was not different from that seen in a no treatment control. Experiment 2 found that relapse could nevertheless be reduced by presenting reinforcers not contingent on responding during the test. Either the reinforcer for R1 or the reinforcer for R2 (which were qualitatively different types of food pellets) were effective. The experiments introduce a laboratory method for studying relapse and how to prevent it after contingency management treatments, and suggest at least one treatment that discourages relapse. The incentivized choice paradigm differs from other models of relapse of operant behavior (e.g., resurgence, renewal, reinstatement) in that it does not focus on the return of behaviors that are inhibited by extinction. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Electricity reforms and firm level responses: changing ownership, fuel choices, and technology decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shukla, P.R.; Nag, Tirthankar; Biswas, Debashish

    2005-01-01

    This paper examines how electricity reforms in India managed to influence the responses of generating firms. Indian electricity reforms have federal and state character. This paper utilises an extensive survey of generation units in Gujarat State. The findings suggest that reforms have created heterogeneous ownership of generation units. The fuel-mix and technology choices of new owners differ from pre-reform pattern followed by state-owned utilities. The new owners prefer natural gas, sourced technologies internationally, and chosen unit sizes that follow market dynamics. Consequently, the operational performance of power plants has improved. This paper quantifies energy efficiency and carbon intensity baselines, projects their trends, and delineates the contribution of reforms for the state. In generalisation, this paper argues that energy and cost efficiency of power plants across different states shows secular improvements under the reforms, though it cautions that environmental performance would not show such uniformly improving trends. (Author)

  20. The Effects of Land Use Patterns on Tour Type Choice. The Application of a Hybrid Choice Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    de Abreu e Silva, João; Sottile, Eleonora; Cherchi, Elisabetta

    2014-01-01

    to travel. Workers who reside in more central, mixed and traditional urban spaces tend to have a higher propensity to travel. Workers who live in more diverse areas have a higher probability of engaging in more complex work related tours. Working in more suburban areas reduces the probability of engaging......The relations between travel behavior and land use patterns have been the object of intensive research in the last two decades. Due to their immediate policy implications, mode choice and vehicle miles of travel (VMT) have been the main focus of attention. Other relevant dimensions, like trip...... of the latent propensity to travel in the discrete choice among types of tours. This model is applied to a travel diary of workers collected in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area in 2009. Different model specifications were built, testing the inclusion of purportedly built land use factors, which have the advantage...

  1. Locked in or true love: Branding among banks : A qualitative study of technologies, brand equity, switching barriers, choice criteria and future strategies in the context of retail banking

    OpenAIRE

    Abrahamsson, David

    2014-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to increase the knowledge about technology based services affection of the ability of retail banks to build customer based brand equity among students. Design/methodology/approach – A conceptual model has been developed from theories regarding customer based brand equity, switching barriers and choice criteria. Based on this conceptual model, seven in depth interviews including several brand elicitation techniques were conducted. Findings – The findings ...

  2. A comprehensive dwelling unit choice model accommodating psychological constructs within a search strategy for consideration set formation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-12-01

    This study adopts a dwelling unit level of analysis and considers a probabilistic choice set generation approach for residential choice modeling. In doing so, we accommodate the fact that housing choices involve both characteristics of the dwelling u...

  3. Human X-chromosome inactivation pattern distributions fit a model of genetically influenced choice better than models of completely random choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renault, Nisa K E; Pritchett, Sonja M; Howell, Robin E; Greer, Wenda L; Sapienza, Carmen; Ørstavik, Karen Helene; Hamilton, David C

    2013-01-01

    In eutherian mammals, one X-chromosome in every XX somatic cell is transcriptionally silenced through the process of X-chromosome inactivation (XCI). Females are thus functional mosaics, where some cells express genes from the paternal X, and the others from the maternal X. The relative abundance of the two cell populations (X-inactivation pattern, XIP) can have significant medical implications for some females. In mice, the ‘choice' of which X to inactivate, maternal or paternal, in each cell of the early embryo is genetically influenced. In humans, the timing of XCI choice and whether choice occurs completely randomly or under a genetic influence is debated. Here, we explore these questions by analysing the distribution of XIPs in large populations of normal females. Models were generated to predict XIP distributions resulting from completely random or genetically influenced choice. Each model describes the discrete primary distribution at the onset of XCI, and the continuous secondary distribution accounting for changes to the XIP as a result of development and ageing. Statistical methods are used to compare models with empirical data from Danish and Utah populations. A rigorous data treatment strategy maximises information content and allows for unbiased use of unphased XIP data. The Anderson–Darling goodness-of-fit statistics and likelihood ratio tests indicate that a model of genetically influenced XCI choice better fits the empirical data than models of completely random choice. PMID:23652377

  4. Mixing process in the preparation of feed pellets at technological conditions rational parametres choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. S. Shentsova

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The mixing of ingredients – the most important process step in the manufacture of fodder pellets. The technology involves using molasses (warmed to 30–40 °C as a binder. In its composition is administered a mixture of salts of trace elements (copper sulfate, zinc sulfate, cobalt carbonate, potassium iodide, ferrous sulfate, manganese sulfate, sodium selenite, vitamins, salt, magnesium oxide, feed limestone, mono calcium phosphate and lime. Research on the development of feed pellets were carried out in laboratory conditions using experimental equipment. Mixer-reactor created the conditions for heating and temperature control of mass be mixed due to the occurring chemical reaction between water contained in the molasses, and the presence of oxides of calcium and magnesium. The choice of rational parameters of the mixing process upon receipt of fodder pellets allows to provide the high quality product with minimal energy costs. The ranges of the input information factors selected with the aid of a central rotatable uniforms-planning allowed with 56 experiments in a third-multiple replication to obtain the regression equation adequately describing the mixing process. The main factors were: the content of molasses, %; the content of calcium oxide, %; frequency of rotation of the stirrer, rpm; the content of salt in the recipe, %; the temperature of blending, °C. Output factors – productivity, kg/h; energy consumption, kWh; homogeneity of mixing, %. In the result of experiments impact factors and mathematical model of the process that allows to define output parameters within chosen ranges of variation of input factors are obtained. Greatest influence – the content of molasses in the product, the lowest – content of salt in the recipe. Efficiency of mixing hard distributed components pertaining to the most important biologically active substances was evaluated. Content (% of entered of vitamins and minerals in the pellets did not differ

  5. Testing Process Predictions of Models of Risky Choice: A Quantitative Model Comparison Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thorsten ePachur

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available This article presents a quantitative model comparison contrasting the process predictions of two prominent views on risky choice. One view assumes a trade-off between probabilities and outcomes (or nonlinear functions thereof and the separate evaluation of risky options (expectation models. Another view assumes that risky choice is based on comparative evaluation, limited search, aspiration levels, and the forgoing of trade-offs (heuristic models. We derived quantitative process predictions for a generic expectation model and for a specific heuristic model, namely the priority heuristic (Brandstätter, Gigerenzer, & Hertwig, 2006, and tested them in two experiments. The focus was on two key features of the cognitive process: acquisition frequencies (i.e., how frequently individual reasons are looked up and direction of search (i.e., gamble-wise vs. reason-wise. In Experiment 1, the priority heuristic predicted direction of search better than the expectation model (although neither model predicted the acquisition process perfectly; acquisition frequencies, however, were inconsistent with both models. Additional analyses revealed that these frequencies were primarily a function of what Rubinstein (1988 called similarity. In Experiment 2, the quantitative model comparison approach showed that people seemed to rely more on the priority heuristic in difficult problems, but to make more trade-offs in easy problems. This finding suggests that risky choice may be based on a mental toolbox of strategies.

  6. Testing process predictions of models of risky choice: a quantitative model comparison approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pachur, Thorsten; Hertwig, Ralph; Gigerenzer, Gerd; Brandstätter, Eduard

    2013-01-01

    This article presents a quantitative model comparison contrasting the process predictions of two prominent views on risky choice. One view assumes a trade-off between probabilities and outcomes (or non-linear functions thereof) and the separate evaluation of risky options (expectation models). Another view assumes that risky choice is based on comparative evaluation, limited search, aspiration levels, and the forgoing of trade-offs (heuristic models). We derived quantitative process predictions for a generic expectation model and for a specific heuristic model, namely the priority heuristic (Brandstätter et al., 2006), and tested them in two experiments. The focus was on two key features of the cognitive process: acquisition frequencies (i.e., how frequently individual reasons are looked up) and direction of search (i.e., gamble-wise vs. reason-wise). In Experiment 1, the priority heuristic predicted direction of search better than the expectation model (although neither model predicted the acquisition process perfectly); acquisition frequencies, however, were inconsistent with both models. Additional analyses revealed that these frequencies were primarily a function of what Rubinstein (1988) called “similarity.” In Experiment 2, the quantitative model comparison approach showed that people seemed to rely more on the priority heuristic in difficult problems, but to make more trade-offs in easy problems. This finding suggests that risky choice may be based on a mental toolbox of strategies. PMID:24151472

  7. Assessing the value of museums with a combined discrete choice/ count data model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rouwendal, J.; Boter, J.

    2009-01-01

    This article assesses the value of Dutch museums using information about destination choice as well as about the number of trips undertaken by an actor. Destination choice is analysed by means of a mixed logit model, and a count data model is used to explain trip generation. We use a

  8. Emerging Australian Education Markets: A Discrete Choice Model of Taiwanese and Indonesian Student Intended Study Destination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kemp, Steven; Madden, Gary; Simpson, Michael

    1998-01-01

    Isolates factors influencing choice of Australia as a preferred destination for international students in emerging regional markets. Uses data obtained from a survey of students in Indonesia and Taiwan to estimate a U.S./Australia and rest-of-world/Australia discrete destination-choice model. This model identifies key factors determining country…

  9. MODELLING CONSUMER CHOICE IN THE MARKET SWITCHBOARD EQUIPMENT USING IBM SPSS STATISTICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergey V. Mkhitaryan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Modelling consumer choice in the marketswitch equipment will allow manufacturing enterprises to improve the efficiencyof design and marketing activities byreducing the financial and human losses associated with pre-treatment orders. Todevelop a model of consumer choice canbe used logistic regression.

  10. Complexity of Choice: Teachers' and Students' Experiences Implementing a Choice-Based Comprehensive School Health Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulz, Lauren; Gibbons, Sandra; Naylor, Patti-Jean; Wharf Higgins, Joan

    2016-01-01

    Background: Comprehensive School Health models offer a promising strategy to elicit changes in student health behaviours. To maximise the effect of such models, the active involvement of teachers and students in the change process is recommended. Objective: The goal of this project was to gain insight into the experiences and motivations of…

  11. Advanced Mirror & Modelling Technology Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Effinger, Michael; Stahl, H. Philip; Abplanalp, Laura; Maffett, Steven; Egerman, Robert; Eng, Ron; Arnold, William; Mosier, Gary; Blaurock, Carl

    2014-01-01

    The 2020 Decadal technology survey is starting in 2018. Technology on the shelf at that time will help guide selection to future low risk and low cost missions. The Advanced Mirror Technology Development (AMTD) team has identified development priorities based on science goals and engineering requirements for Ultraviolet Optical near-Infrared (UVOIR) missions in order to contribute to the selection process. One key development identified was lightweight mirror fabrication and testing. A monolithic, stacked, deep core mirror was fused and replicated twice to achieve the desired radius of curvature. It was subsequently successfully polished and tested. A recently awarded second phase to the AMTD project will develop larger mirrors to demonstrate the lateral scaling of the deep core mirror technology. Another key development was rapid modeling for the mirror. One model focused on generating optical and structural model results in minutes instead of months. Many variables could be accounted for regarding the core, face plate and back structure details. A portion of a spacecraft model was also developed. The spacecraft model incorporated direct integration to transform optical path difference to Point Spread Function (PSF) and between PSF to modulation transfer function. The second phase to the project will take the results of the rapid mirror modeler and integrate them into the rapid spacecraft modeler.

  12. Fund choice behavior and estimation of switching models: an experiment*

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anufriev, M.; Bao, T.; Tuinstra, J.

    2013-01-01

    We run a laboratory experiment that contributes to the finance literature on "return chasing behavior" studying how investors switch between mutual funds driven by past performance of the funds. The subjects in this experiment make discrete choices between several (2, 3 or 4) experimental funds in

  13. Modeling issues & choices in the data mining optimization ontology

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Keet, CM

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available We describe the Data Mining Optimization Ontology (DMOP), which was developed to support informed decision-making at various choice points of the knowledge discovery (KD) process. It can be used as a reference by data miners, but its primary purpose...

  14. Choice of Innovative Technologies as a Factor of Modernization of the Industrial Plants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evgheniya A. Panfilova

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article analyzes the need to develop a new type of interaction between providers of the equipment and its end-users in a changing social and cultural reality. This type of interaction is a guarantee of innovative modernization of Russian industrial facilities, as it is based on a revision of the social reality in light of new information and/or knowledge. The choice of innovative technologies that contribute to fruitful and qualitative relationships among the actors of the social process acquires significance since there have been changes in the role, objectives and potential of technology. The author focuses on the changes in perceptions of social time and space, reflection of consumers (the impact of economic, social and psychological factors on their decision to purchase, and suppliers. There is a reflection of the habitus of social actors in the context of social interaction, based on the organization of innovative practices. Today technology is also reflecting, its symbolic characteristics, contained in the codes of signification, become more important, than technical ones. The research is based on in-depth interviews with experts from the pharmaceutical industry aimed at identifying the factors influencing the decision to purchase an innovative high-quality imported equipments and machinery, which would contribute to the modernization of the existing production process. The author concludes that adequate reflection which promotes the creation and dissemination of new social practices based on close and confidential contacts and development of flexible communication tools would provide for successful modernization of Russia.

  15. Economic, energy and greenhouse emissions impacts of some consumer choice, technology and government outlay options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lenzen, Manfred; Dey, Christopher J.

    2002-01-01

    The impacts of selected spending options in the Australian economy are determined in terms of energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions and a range of economic parameters. Six case studies of one current-practice and one alternative, environmentally motivated spending option are carried out, describing consumer choices, technologies and government outlays. The assessment method is based on input-output theory and, as such, enables both the direct and indirect effects of spending to be quantified. In general, the results indicate that pro-environmental objectives, such as reductions in energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, are compatible with broad socio-economic benefits, such as increases in employment and income, and reductions in imports

  16. Technology choice and development in Brazil: An assessment of Brazil's alternative fuel program and the agriculture, manufacturing, energy, and service sectors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolan, Lucy A.

    Technology choice profoundly affects a country's development process because capital-intensive and labor-intensive technologies have different socioeconomic linkages within the economy. This research examines the impacts of technology choice through the use of a social accounting matrix (SAM) framework. SAM-based modeling determines the direct and indirect effects of technology choice on development, particularly poverty alleviation in Brazil. Brazil's alternative fuel program was analyzed as a special example of technology choice. Two ethanol production technologies and the gasoline sector were compared; to make the study more robust, labor and capital intensive technologies were evaluated in the production of agriculture, manufacturing, energy, and services. Growth in these economic sectors was examined to assess the effects on employment, factor and household income, energy intensity, and carbon dioxide costs. Poverty alleviation was a focus, so income to unskilled agriculture labor, unskilled non-agriculture labor, and income to rural and urban households in poverty was also analyzed. The major research finding is that overall, labor-intensive technologies generate more employment, factor and household income, environmental and energy benefits to Brazil's economy than capital-intensive technologies. In addition, labor-intensive technologies make a particular contribution to poverty alleviation. The results suggest that policies to encourage the adoption of these technologies, especially in the agriculture and renewable energy sectors, are important because of their intersectoral linkages within the economy. Many studies have shown that Brazil's fuel ethanol program has helped to realize multiple macroeconomic objectives. However, this is the first empirical study to quantify its household income effects. The ethanol industry generated the most household income of the energy sectors. The research confirms a key finding of the appropriate technology literature

  17. DETERMINANTS OF THE CHOICE OF MARKETING CHANNELS BY CORPORATE CLIENTS: AN ANALYSIS OF THE INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY SECTOR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guilherme Soares

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Based on a survey of 505 corporate clients from the information technology industry, this study uses a logit statistical model to analyze whether such factors as loyalty, trust, client importance, intimacy between customer and supplier and the cost of changing suppliers may affect the choice of the marketing channel used by the client. The results show that the greater intimacy between a supplier and a corporate client is a determining factor for the client’s preference for being served by the manufacturer rather than an intermediary. In contrast, clients’ perception of their own importance to the supplier is not very relevant to their preference for being served directly by the manufacturer, and the other factors were not identified as (statistically important determinants of the choice of the marketing channel. These results suggest that the real advantage of the direct sales channel over the indirect sales channel lies in its ability to strengthen the client-manufacturer relationship, thereby contributing to the development of solutions that better serve the needs of corporate clients.

  18. Technology Transfer Issues and a New Technology Transfer Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Hee Jun

    2009-01-01

    The following are major issues that should be considered for efficient and effective technology transfer: conceptions of technology, technological activity and transfer, communication channels, factors affecting transfer, and models of transfer. In particular, a well-developed model of technology transfer could be used as a framework for…

  19. Departure time choice: Modelling individual preferences, intention and constraints

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorhauge, Mikkel

    by nearly all studies within departure time. More importantly it shows that the underlying psychological processes are more complex than simply accounting for attitudes and perceptions which are typically used in other areas. The work in this PhD thesis accounts for the full Theory of Planned Behaviour......, but can also be perceived by the individuals as barriers towards participating in activities. Perceived constraints affect the departure time choice through the individual intention of being on time. This PhD thesis also contributes to the departure time literature by discussing the problem of collecting...... whether they are constrained. The thesis also provides empirical evidences of the policy implication of not accounting for other activities and their constraints. Thirdly, the thesis shows that the departure time choice can be partly explained by psychological factors, which have previously been neglected...

  20. Fuzzy social choice models explaining the government formation process

    CERN Document Server

    C Casey, Peter; A Goodman, Carly; Pook, Kelly Nelson; N Mordeson, John; J Wierman, Mark; D Clark, Terry

    2014-01-01

    This book explores the extent to which fuzzy set logic can overcome some of the shortcomings of public choice theory, particularly its inability to provide adequate predictive power in empirical studies. Especially in the case of social preferences, public choice theory has failed to produce the set of alternatives from which collective choices are made.  The book presents empirical findings achieved by the authors in their efforts to predict the outcome of government formation processes in European parliamentary and semi-presidential systems.  Using data from the Comparative Manifesto Project (CMP), the authors propose a new approach that reinterprets error in the coding of CMP data as ambiguity in the actual political positions of parties on the policy dimensions being coded. The range of this error establishes parties’ fuzzy preferences. The set of possible outcomes in the process of government formation is then calculated on the basis of both the fuzzy Pareto set and the fuzzy maximal set, and the pre...

  1. Bioprinting technologies for disease modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Memic, Adnan; Navaei, Ali; Mirani, Bahram

    2017-01-01

    the critical characteristics of human physiology. Alternatively, three-dimensional (3D) tissue models are often developed in a low-throughput manner and lack crucial native-like architecture. The recent emergence of bioprinting technologies has enabled creating 3D tissue models that address the critical...... challenges of conventional in vitro assays through the development of custom bioinks and patient derived cells coupled with well-defined arrangements of biomaterials. Here, we provide an overview on the technological aspects of 3D bioprinting technique and discuss how the development of bioprinted tissue...... models have propelled our understanding of diseases’ characteristics (i.e. initiation and progression). The future perspectives on the use of bioprinted 3D tissue models for drug discovery application are also highlighted....

  2. LNG Regasification Terminals: The Role of Geography and Meteorology on Technology Choices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Randeep Agarwal

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Liquefied natural gas (LNG projects are regulated by host countries, but policy and regulation should depend on geography and meteorology. Without considering the role of geography and meteorology, sub-optimal design choices can result, leading to energy conversion efficiency and capital investment decisions that are less than ideal. A key step in LNG is regasification, which transforms LNG back from liquid to the gaseous state and requires substantial heat input. This study investigated different LNG regasification technologies used around the world and benchmarked location and meteorology-related factors, such as seawater temperatures, ambient air temperatures, wind speeds and relative humidity. Seawater vaporizers are used for more than 95% of locations subject to water quality. Ambient air conditions are relatively better for South America, India, Spain and other Asian countries (Singapore, Taiwan, Indonesia, and Thailand and provide a much cleaner regasification technology option for natural and forced draft systems and air-based intermediate fluid vaporizers. On a global basis, cold energy utilization currently represents <1% of the total potential, but this approach could deliver nearly 12 Gigawatt (GW per annum. Overall, climate change is expected to have a positive financial impact on the LNG regasification industry, but the improvement could be unevenly distributed.

  3. Improving human welfare through appropriate technology: government responsibility, citizen duty or customer choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, M; Franceys, R

    1995-05-01

    This paper explores recent attempts to improve the effectiveness of environmental health programmes and projects by reference to the International Drinking Water Supply and Sanitation Decade (1980-1990) and beyond. Reference is made to how water and sanitation as technical interventions have drawn upon the natural sciences, notably concepts of race and sex, and the social sciences including culture and gender, for their authority and legitimacy. A new and apparently progressive movement, the Water Decade sought to challenge the powerful and enduring high tech image of development on which much western environmental and social transformations have been based. Beginning as a critique of modernism with a commitment to basic needs as human rights, it was driven by a recognition that sophisticated technology could not satisfy human health needs. Alternative technologies would, by contrast, cater for a more extensive and varied market and would promote participatory approaches to service delivery. The paper demonstrates how, during the course of the Decade, sections of the aid community began to redefine basic needs as commodities involving the efficient marketing and delivery of a product with minimal state intervention. Within a shifting international political and economic context, it examines the changing role of the expert and the links being forged between large donors, non-governmental organisations and the private sector. The significance of this reformulated progressivism for the development debate is then considered, notably in relation to concepts of citizenship, consumer choice and the role of the state.

  4. A comparative study of machine learning classifiers for modeling travel mode choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hagenauer, J; Helbich, M

    2017-01-01

    The analysis of travel mode choice is an important task in transportation planning and policy making in order to understand and predict travel demands. While advances in machine learning have led to numerous powerful classifiers, their usefulness for modeling travel mode choice remains largely

  5. [Decision modeling for economic evaluation of health technologies].

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Soárez, Patrícia Coelho; Soares, Marta Oliveira; Novaes, Hillegonda Maria Dutilh

    2014-10-01

    Most economic evaluations that participate in decision-making processes for incorporation and financing of technologies of health systems use decision models to assess the costs and benefits of the compared strategies. Despite the large number of economic evaluations conducted in Brazil, there is a pressing need to conduct an in-depth methodological study of the types of decision models and their applicability in our setting. The objective of this literature review is to contribute to the knowledge and use of decision models in the national context of economic evaluations of health technologies. This article presents general definitions about models and concerns with their use; it describes the main models: decision trees, Markov chains, micro-simulation, simulation of discrete and dynamic events; it discusses the elements involved in the choice of model; and exemplifies the models addressed in national economic evaluation studies of diagnostic and therapeutic preventive technologies and health programs.

  6. Modeling a Multinomial Logit Model of Intercity Travel Mode Choice Behavior for All Trips in Libya

    OpenAIRE

    Manssour A. Abdulsalam Bin Miskeen; Ahmed Mohamed Alhodairi; Riza Atiq Abdullah Bin O. K. Rahmat

    2013-01-01

    In the planning point of view, it is essential to have mode choice, due to the massive amount of incurred in transportation systems. The intercity travellers in Libya have distinct features, as against travellers from other countries, which includes cultural and socioeconomic factors. Consequently, the goal of this study is to recognize the behavior of intercity travel using disaggregate models, for projecting the demand of nation-level intercity travel in Libya. Multinom...

  7. Incorporating Latent Variables into Discrete Choice Models - A Simultaneous Estimation Approach Using SEM Software

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dirk Temme

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Integrated choice and latent variable (ICLV models represent a promising new class of models which merge classic choice models with the structural equation approach (SEM for latent variables. Despite their conceptual appeal, applications of ICLV models in marketing remain rare. We extend previous ICLV applications by first estimating a multinomial choice model and, second, by estimating hierarchical relations between latent variables. An empirical study on travel mode choice clearly demonstrates the value of ICLV models to enhance the understanding of choice processes. In addition to the usually studied directly observable variables such as travel time, we show how abstract motivations such as power and hedonism as well as attitudes such as a desire for flexibility impact on travel mode choice. Furthermore, we show that it is possible to estimate such a complex ICLV model with the widely available structural equation modeling package Mplus. This finding is likely to encourage more widespread application of this appealing model class in the marketing field.

  8. Understanding the formation and influence of attitudes in patients' treatment choices for lower back pain: Testing the benefits of a hybrid choice model approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kløjgaard, Mirja Elisabeth; Hess, S.

    2014-01-01

    A growing number of studies across different fields are making use of a new class of choice models, labelled variably as hybrid model structures or integrated choice and latent variable models, and incorporating the role of attitudes in decision making. To date, this technique has not been used...... in spring/summer 2012. We show how the hybrid model structure is able to make a link between attitudinal questions and treatment choices, and also explains variation of these attitudes across key socio-demographic groups. However, we also show how, in this case, only a small share of the overall...

  9. A novel concurrent pictorial choice model of mood-induced relapse in hazardous drinkers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardy, Lorna; Hogarth, Lee

    2017-12-01

    This study tested whether a novel concurrent pictorial choice procedure, inspired by animal self-administration models, is sensitive to the motivational effect of negative mood induction on alcohol-seeking in hazardous drinkers. Forty-eight hazardous drinkers (scoring ≥7 on the Alcohol Use Disorders Inventory) recruited from the community completed measures of alcohol dependence, depression, and drinking coping motives. Baseline alcohol-seeking was measured by percent choice to enlarge alcohol- versus food-related thumbnail images in two alternative forced-choice trials. Negative and positive mood was then induced in succession by means of self-referential affective statements and music, and percent alcohol choice was measured after each induction in the same way as baseline. Baseline alcohol choice correlated with alcohol dependence severity, r = .42, p = .003, drinking coping motives (in two questionnaires, r = .33, p = .02 and r = .46, p = .001), and depression symptoms, r = .31, p = .03. Alcohol choice was increased by negative mood over baseline (p choice was not related to gender, alcohol dependence, drinking to cope, or depression symptoms (ps ≥ .37). The concurrent pictorial choice measure is a sensitive index of the relative value of alcohol, and provides an accessible experimental model to study negative mood-induced relapse mechanisms in hazardous drinkers. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  10. A conceptual model for determining career choice of CHROME alumna based on farmer's conceptual models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Lisa Simmons

    This qualitative program evaluation examines the career decision-making processes and career choices of nine, African American women who participated in the Cooperating Hampton Roads Organization for Minorities in Engineering (CHROME) and who graduated from urban, rural or suburban high schools in the year 2000. The CHROME program is a nonprofit, pre-college intervention program that encourages underrepresented minority and female students to enter science, technically related, engineering, and math (STEM) career fields. The study describes career choices and decisions made by each participant over a five-year period since high school graduation. Data was collected through an Annual Report, Post High School Questionnaires, Environmental Support Questionnaires, Career Choice Questionnaires, Senior Reports, and standardized open-ended interviews. Data was analyzed using a model based on Helen C. Farmer's Conceptual Models, John Ogbu's Caste Theory and Feminist Theory. The CHROME program, based on its stated goals and tenets, was also analyzed against study findings. Findings indicated that participants received very low levels of support from counselors and teachers to pursue STEM careers and high levels of support from parents and family, the CHROME program and financial backing. Findings of this study also indicated that the majority of CHROME alumna persisted in STEM careers. The most successful participants, in terms of undergraduate degree completion and occupational prestige, were the African American women who remained single, experienced no critical incidents, came from a middle class to upper middle class socioeconomic background, and did not have children.

  11. Joint modeling of constrained path enumeration and path choice behavior: a semi-compensatory approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2010-01-01

    A behavioural and a modelling framework are proposed for representing route choice from a path set that satisfies travellers’ spatiotemporal constraints. Within the proposed framework, travellers’ master sets are constructed by path generation, consideration sets are delimited according to spatio...

  12. The application of the random regret minimization model to drivers’ choice of crash avoidance maneuvers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    This study explores the plausibility of regret minimization as behavioral paradigm underlying the choice of crash avoidance maneuvers. Alternatively to previous studies that considered utility maximization, this study applies the random regret minimization (RRM) model while assuming that drivers ...

  13. The application of the random regret minimization model to drivers’ choice of crash avoidance maneuvers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    This study explores the plausibility of regret minimization as behavioral paradigm underlying the choice of crash avoidance maneuvers. Alternatively to previous studies that considered utility maximization, this study applies the random regret minimization (RRM) model while assuming that drivers ...

  14. Bioprinting technologies for disease modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Memic, Adnan; Navaei, Ali; Mirani, Bahram; Cordova, Julio Alvin Vacacela; Aldhahri, Musab; Dolatshahi-Pirouz, Alireza; Akbari, Mohsen; Nikkhah, Mehdi

    2017-09-01

    There is a great need for the development of biomimetic human tissue models that allow elucidation of the pathophysiological conditions involved in disease initiation and progression. Conventional two-dimensional (2D) in vitro assays and animal models have been unable to fully recapitulate the critical characteristics of human physiology. Alternatively, three-dimensional (3D) tissue models are often developed in a low-throughput manner and lack crucial native-like architecture. The recent emergence of bioprinting technologies has enabled creating 3D tissue models that address the critical challenges of conventional in vitro assays through the development of custom bioinks and patient derived cells coupled with well-defined arrangements of biomaterials. Here, we provide an overview on the technological aspects of 3D bioprinting technique and discuss how the development of bioprinted tissue models have propelled our understanding of diseases' characteristics (i.e. initiation and progression). The future perspectives on the use of bioprinted 3D tissue models for drug discovery application are also highlighted.

  15. Modelling Stochastic Route Choice Behaviours with a Closed-Form Mixed Logit Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinjun Lai

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A closed-form mixed Logit approach is proposed to model the stochastic route choice behaviours. It combines both the advantages of Probit and Logit to provide a flexible form in alternatives correlation and a tractable form in expression; besides, the heterogeneity in alternative variance can also be addressed. Paths are compared by pairs where the superiority of the binary Probit can be fully used. The Probit-based aggregation is also used for a nested Logit structure. Case studies on both numerical and empirical examples demonstrate that the new method is valid and practical. This paper thus provides an operational solution to incorporate the normal distribution in route choice with an analytical expression.

  16. Generalized outcome-based strategy classification: comparing deterministic and probabilistic choice models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilbig, Benjamin E; Moshagen, Morten

    2014-12-01

    Model comparisons are a vital tool for disentangling which of several strategies a decision maker may have used--that is, which cognitive processes may have governed observable choice behavior. However, previous methodological approaches have been limited to models (i.e., decision strategies) with deterministic choice rules. As such, psychologically plausible choice models--such as evidence-accumulation and connectionist models--that entail probabilistic choice predictions could not be considered appropriately. To overcome this limitation, we propose a generalization of Bröder and Schiffer's (Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 19, 361-380, 2003) choice-based classification method, relying on (1) parametric order constraints in the multinomial processing tree framework to implement probabilistic models and (2) minimum description length for model comparison. The advantages of the generalized approach are demonstrated through recovery simulations and an experiment. In explaining previous methods and our generalization, we maintain a nontechnical focus--so as to provide a practical guide for comparing both deterministic and probabilistic choice models.

  17. Modeling hurricane evacuation traffic : testing the gravity and intervening opportunity models as models of destination choice in hurricane evacuation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-09-01

    The test was conducted by estimating the models on a portion of evacuation data from South Carolina following Hurricane Floyd, and then observing how well the models reproduced destination choice at the county level on the remaining data. The tests s...

  18. Technology choices for new entrants in liberalized markets. The value of operating flexibility and contractual arrangements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roques, Fabien A.

    2008-01-01

    New entrants in liberalized electricity markets which are not vertically integrated and do not operate a large and diversified portfolio of generation technologies are likely to favour technologies which offer the best prospects to manage fuel and electricity price risks through contractual arrangements and operating flexibility. Monte Carlo simulations of a discounted cash flow model of investment in combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT), coal and nuclear power plant are run to compare the impact of fuel and electricity price risks on these different technologies, as well as the value of operating flexibility and contractual hedges. In the absence of long-term fixed-price power purchase contracts, CCGT is the least risky option as its cash flow is 'self-hedged' given the high correlation between electricity and gas prices observed in many markets. Moreover, the value associated with operating flexibility and arbitrage between gas and power market is greater for CCGT plant. This makes CCGT particularly attractive to new entrants. (author)

  19. The sensitivity of ecosystem service models to choices of input data and spatial resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenneth J. Bagstad; Erika Cohen; Zachary H. Ancona; Steven. G. McNulty; Ge   Sun

    2018-01-01

    Although ecosystem service (ES) modeling has progressed rapidly in the last 10–15 years, comparative studies on data and model selection effects have become more common only recently. Such studies have drawn mixed conclusions about whether different data and model choices yield divergent results. In this study, we compared the results of different models to address...

  20. Clean coal technology optimization model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laseke, B.A.; Hance, S.B.

    1992-01-01

    Title IV of the Clean Air Act Amendments (CAAA) of 1990 contains provisions for the mitigation of acid rain precipitation through reductions in the annual emission of the acid rain precursors of sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) and nitrogen oxide (NO x ). These provisions will affect primarily existing coal-fired power-generating plants by requiring nominal reductions of 5 millon and 10 million tons of SO 2 by the years 1995 and 2000, respectively, and 2 million tons of NO x by the year 2000 relative to the 1980 and 1985-87 reference period. The 1990 CAAA Title IV provisions are extremely complex in that they establish phased regulatory milestones, unit-level emission allowances and caps, a mechanism for inter-utility trading of emission allowances, and a system of emission allowance credits based on selection of control option and timing of its implementation. The net result of Title IV of the 1990 CAAA is that approximately 147 gigawatts (GW) of generating capacity is eligible to retrofit SO 2 controls by the year 2000. A number of options are available to bring affected boilers into compliance with Title IV. Market sharewill be influenced by technology performance and costs. These characteristics can be modeled through a bottom-up technology cost and performance optimization exercise to show their impact on the technology's potential market share. Such a model exists in the form of an integrated data base-model software system. This microcomputer (PC)-based software system consists of a unit (boiler)-level data base (ACIDBASE), a cost and performance engineering model (IAPCS), and a market forecast model (ICEMAN)

  1. The selection of a mode of urban transportation: Integrating psychological variables to discrete choice models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cordoba Maquilon, Jorge E; Gonzalez Calderon, Carlos A; Posada Henao, John J

    2011-01-01

    A study using revealed preference surveys and psychological tests was conducted. Key psychological variables of behavior involved in the choice of transportation mode in a population sample of the Metropolitan Area of the Valle de Aburra were detected. The experiment used the random utility theory for discrete choice models and reasoned action in order to assess beliefs. This was used as a tool for analysis of the psychological variables using the sixteen personality factor questionnaire (16PF test). In addition to the revealed preference surveys, two other surveys were carried out: one with socio-economic characteristics and the other with latent indicators. This methodology allows for an integration of discrete choice models and latent variables. The integration makes the model operational and quantifies the unobservable psychological variables. The most relevant result obtained was that anxiety affects the choice of urban transportation mode and shows that physiological alterations, as well as problems in perception and beliefs, can affect the decision-making process.

  2. Conceptual Models, Choices, and Benchmarks for Building Quality Work Cultures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acker-Hocevar, Michele

    1996-01-01

    The two models in Florida's Educational Quality Benchmark System represent a new way of thinking about developing schools' work culture. The Quality Performance System Model identifies nine dimensions of work within a quality system. The Change Process Model provides a theoretical framework for changing existing beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors…

  3. Hydrogen Analysis with the Sandia ParaChoice Model.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Levinson, Rebecca Sobel [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); West, Todd H. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-07-01

    In the coming decades, light-duty vehicle options and their supporting infrastructure must undergo significant transformations to achieve aggressive national targets for reducing petroleum consumption and lowering greenhouse gas emissions. FCEVs, battery and hybrid electric vehicles, and biofuels are among the promising advanced technology options. This project examines the market penetration of FCEVs in a range of market segments, and in different energy, technology, and policy futures. Analyses are conducted in the context of varying hydrogen production and distribution pathways, as well as public infrastructure availability, fuel (gasoline, ethanol, hydrogen) and electricity costs, vehicle costs and fuel economies to better understand under what conditions, and for which market segments, FCEVs can best compete with battery electric and other alternative fuel vehicles.

  4. A likelihood-based biostatistical model for analyzing consumer movement in simultaneous choice experiments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeilinger, Adam R; Olson, Dawn M; Andow, David A

    2014-08-01

    Consumer feeding preference among resource choices has critical implications for basic ecological and evolutionary processes, and can be highly relevant to applied problems such as ecological risk assessment and invasion biology. Within consumer choice experiments, also known as feeding preference or cafeteria experiments, measures of relative consumption and measures of consumer movement can provide distinct and complementary insights into the strength, causes, and consequences of preference. Despite the distinct value of inferring preference from measures of consumer movement, rigorous and biologically relevant analytical methods are lacking. We describe a simple, likelihood-based, biostatistical model for analyzing the transient dynamics of consumer movement in a paired-choice experiment. With experimental data consisting of repeated discrete measures of consumer location, the model can be used to estimate constant consumer attraction and leaving rates for two food choices, and differences in choice-specific attraction and leaving rates can be tested using model selection. The model enables calculation of transient and equilibrial probabilities of consumer-resource association, which could be incorporated into larger scale movement models. We explore the effect of experimental design on parameter estimation through stochastic simulation and describe methods to check that data meet model assumptions. Using a dataset of modest sample size, we illustrate the use of the model to draw inferences on consumer preference as well as underlying behavioral mechanisms. Finally, we include a user's guide and computer code scripts in R to facilitate use of the model by other researchers.

  5. Value-based choice: An integrative, neuroscience-informed model of health goals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berkman, Elliot T

    2018-01-01

    Traditional models of health behaviour focus on the roles of cognitive, personality and social-cognitive constructs (e.g. executive function, grit, self-efficacy), and give less attention to the process by which these constructs interact in the moment that a health-relevant choice is made. Health psychology needs a process-focused account of how various factors are integrated to produce the decisions that determine health behaviour. I present an integrative value-based choice model of health behaviour, which characterises the mechanism by which a variety of factors come together to determine behaviour. This model imports knowledge from research on behavioural economics and neuroscience about how choices are made to the study of health behaviour, and uses that knowledge to generate novel predictions about how to change health behaviour. I describe anomalies in value-based choice that can be exploited for health promotion, and review neuroimaging evidence about the involvement of midline dopamine structures in tracking and integrating value-related information during choice. I highlight how this knowledge can bring insights to health psychology using illustrative case of healthy eating. Value-based choice is a viable model for health behaviour and opens new avenues for mechanism-focused intervention.

  6. Discrete Choice Experiments: A Guide to Model Specification, Estimation and Software.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lancsar, Emily; Fiebig, Denzil G; Hole, Arne Risa

    2017-07-01

    We provide a user guide on the analysis of data (including best-worst and best-best data) generated from discrete-choice experiments (DCEs), comprising a theoretical review of the main choice models followed by practical advice on estimation and post-estimation. We also provide a review of standard software. In providing this guide, we endeavour to not only provide guidance on choice modelling but to do so in a way that provides a 'way in' for researchers to the practicalities of data analysis. We argue that choice of modelling approach depends on the research questions, study design and constraints in terms of quality/quantity of data and that decisions made in relation to analysis of choice data are often interdependent rather than sequential. Given the core theory and estimation of choice models is common across settings, we expect the theoretical and practical content of this paper to be useful to researchers not only within but also beyond health economics.

  7. How urban environment affects travel behavior? Integrated Choice and Latent Variable Model for Travel Schedules

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    La Paix, Lissy; Bierlaire, Michel; Cherchi, Elisabetta

    2013-01-01

    The relationship between urban environment and travel behaviour is not a new problem. Neighbourhood characteristics may affect mobility of dwellers in different ways, such as frequency of trips, mode used, structure of the tours, and so on. At the same time, qualitative issues related...... to the individual attitude towards specific behaviour have recently become important in transport modelling contributing to a better understanding of travel demand. Following this research line, in this paper we study the effect of neighbourhood characteristics in the choice of the type of tours performed, but we...... assume that neighbourhood characteristics can also affect the individual propensity to travel and hence the choice of the tours throughout the propensity to travel. Since the propensity to travel is not observed, we employ hybrid choice models to estimate jointly the discrete choice of tours...

  8. Modeling and Forecasting Large Realized Covariance Matrices and Portfolio Choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Callot, Laurent A.F.; Kock, Anders B.; Medeiros, Marcelo C.

    2017-01-01

    We consider modeling and forecasting large realized covariance matrices by penalized vector autoregressive models. We consider Lasso-type estimators to reduce the dimensionality and provide strong theoretical guarantees on the forecast capability of our procedure. We show that we can forecast

  9. Modelling travel time perception in transport mode choices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Varotto, S.F.; Glerum, A.; Stathopoulos, A.; Bierlaire, M.; Longo, G.

    2015-01-01

    Travel behaviour models typically rely on data afflicted by errors, in perception (e.g., over/under-estimation by traveller) and measurement (e.g., software or researcher imputation error). Such errors are shown to have a relevant impact on model outputs. So far a comprehensive framework to deal

  10. How the twain can meet: Prospect theory and models of heuristics in risky choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pachur, Thorsten; Suter, Renata S; Hertwig, Ralph

    2017-03-01

    Two influential approaches to modeling choice between risky options are algebraic models (which focus on predicting the overt decisions) and models of heuristics (which are also concerned with capturing the underlying cognitive process). Because they rest on fundamentally different assumptions and algorithms, the two approaches are usually treated as antithetical, or even incommensurable. Drawing on cumulative prospect theory (CPT; Tversky & Kahneman, 1992) as the currently most influential instance of a descriptive algebraic model, we demonstrate how the two modeling traditions can be linked. CPT's algebraic functions characterize choices in terms of psychophysical (diminishing sensitivity to probabilities and outcomes) as well as psychological (risk aversion and loss aversion) constructs. Models of heuristics characterize choices as rooted in simple information-processing principles such as lexicographic and limited search. In computer simulations, we estimated CPT's parameters for choices produced by various heuristics. The resulting CPT parameter profiles portray each of the choice-generating heuristics in psychologically meaningful ways-capturing, for instance, differences in how the heuristics process probability information. Furthermore, CPT parameters can reflect a key property of many heuristics, lexicographic search, and track the environment-dependent behavior of heuristics. Finally, we show, both in an empirical and a model recovery study, how CPT parameter profiles can be used to detect the operation of heuristics. We also address the limits of CPT's ability to capture choices produced by heuristics. Our results highlight an untapped potential of CPT as a measurement tool to characterize the information processing underlying risky choice. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Airport Choice in Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area: An Application of the Conditional Logit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno, Marcelo Baena; Muller, Carlos

    2003-01-01

    Using the conditional LOGIT model, this paper addresses the airport choice in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area. In this region, Guarulhos International Airport (GRU) and Congonhas Airport (CGH) compete for passengers flying to several domestic destinations. The airport choice is believed to be a result of the tradeoff passengers perform considering airport access characteristics, airline level of service characteristics and passenger experience with the analyzed airports. It was found that access time to the airports better explain the airport choice than access distance, whereas direct flight frequencies gives better explanation to the airport choice than the indirect (connections and stops) and total (direct plus indirect) flight frequencies. Out of 15 tested variables, passenger experience with the analyzed airports was the variable that best explained the airport choice in the region. Model specifications considering 1, 2 or 3 variables were tested. The model specification most adjusted to the observed data considered access time, direct flight frequencies in the travel period (morning or afternoon peak) and passenger experience with the analyzed airports. The influence of these variables was therefore analyzed across market segments according to departure airport and flight duration criteria. The choice of GRU (located neighboring Sao Paulo city) is not well explained by the rationality of access time economy and the increase of the supply of direct flight frequencies, while the choice of CGH (located inside Sao Paulo city) is. Access time was found to be more important to passengers flying shorter distances while direct flight frequencies in the travel period were more significant to those flying longer distances. Keywords: Airport choice, Multiple airport region, Conditional LOGIT model, Access time, Flight frequencies, Passenger experience with the analyzed airports, Transportation planning

  12. A note on identification in discrete choice models with partial observability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; Ranjan, Abhishek

    2017-01-01

    This note establishes a new identification result for additive random utility discrete choice models. A decision-maker associates a random utility Uj+ mj to each alternative in a finite set j∈ {1 , … , J} , where U= {U1, … , UJ} is unobserved by the researcher and random with an unknown joint dis...... for applications where choices are observed aggregated into groups while prices and attributes vary at the level of individual alternatives....

  13. Not lack of ability but more choice: individual and gender differences in choice of careers in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ming-Te; Eccles, Jacquelynne S; Kenny, Sarah

    2013-05-01

    The pattern of gender differences in math and verbal ability may result in females having a wider choice of careers, in both science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) and non-STEM fields, compared with males. The current study tested whether individuals with high math and high verbal ability in 12th grade were more or less likely to choose STEM occupations than those with high math and moderate verbal ability. The 1,490 subjects participated in two waves of a national longitudinal study; one wave was when the subjects were in 12th grade, and the other was when they were 33 years old. Results revealed that mathematically capable individuals who also had high verbal skills were less likely to pursue STEM careers than were individuals who had high math skills but moderate verbal skills. One notable finding was that the group with high math and high verbal ability included more females than males.

  14. The drift diffusion model as the choice rule in reinforcement learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedersen, Mads Lund; Frank, Michael J; Biele, Guido

    2017-08-01

    Current reinforcement-learning models often assume simplified decision processes that do not fully reflect the dynamic complexities of choice processes. Conversely, sequential-sampling models of decision making account for both choice accuracy and response time, but assume that decisions are based on static decision values. To combine these two computational models of decision making and learning, we implemented reinforcement-learning models in which the drift diffusion model describes the choice process, thereby capturing both within- and across-trial dynamics. To exemplify the utility of this approach, we quantitatively fit data from a common reinforcement-learning paradigm using hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation, and compared model variants to determine whether they could capture the effects of stimulant medication in adult patients with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). The model with the best relative fit provided a good description of the learning process, choices, and response times. A parameter recovery experiment showed that the hierarchical Bayesian modeling approach enabled accurate estimation of the model parameters. The model approach described here, using simultaneous estimation of reinforcement-learning and drift diffusion model parameters, shows promise for revealing new insights into the cognitive and neural mechanisms of learning and decision making, as well as the alteration of such processes in clinical groups.

  15. MATHEMATICAL MODELLING OF PREFERED SOLUTIONS CHOICE FUNCTION FOR TUBULAR GAS HEATERS BY EXPERIMENTAL INFORMATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BARSUK R. V.

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Annotation. Problems formulation. The article deals with choice functions building of preferred solutions by experimental information for tubular gas heater working on fuel granules - pellets.Further choice functions using for making technical solutions by tubular gas heaters construction and designing. Recently research analysis. There are works about choice functions construction by separate presents are examined. But full chose functions building by separate presents are not examined. Aims and tasks. There are setting aim to develop full choice functions mathematical model on separate presents by authors. The expert are connect to primary experimental data’s evaluation that estimates separate results by output functions (criteria. Its evaluations issue in experimental points paired comparison’s table form. Thus, there are necessary construct binary choice relations presents on experimental “points” set by expert that then using for full choice function’s constructing. Conclusions. There are choice function’s construction’s sequence are sets. There are posed point comparison results that characterized tubular gas heater’s condition with expert’s evaluation using. Also posed output functions comparisons by which can be characterized improving tubular gas heater’s performance or vice versa.

  16. Australian Public Preferences for the Funding of New Health Technologies: A Comparison of Discrete Choice and Profile Case Best-Worst Scaling Methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitty, Jennifer A; Ratcliffe, Julie; Chen, Gang; Scuffham, Paul A

    2014-07-01

    Ethical, economic, political, and legitimacy arguments support the consideration of public preferences in health technology decision making. The objective was to assess public preferences for funding new health technologies and to compare a profile case best-worst scaling (BWS) and traditional discrete choice experiment (DCE) method. An online survey consisting of a DCE and BWS task was completed by 930 adults recruited via an Internet panel. Respondents traded between 7 technology attributes. Participation quotas broadly reflected the population of Queensland, Australia, by gender and age. Choice data were analyzed using a generalized multinomial logit model. The findings from both the BWS and DCE were generally consistent in that respondents exhibited stronger preferences for technologies offering prevention or early diagnosis over other benefit types. Respondents also prioritized technologies that benefit younger people, larger numbers of people, those in rural areas, or indigenous Australians; that provide value for money; that have no available alternative; or that upgrade an existing technology. However, the relative preference weights and consequent preference orderings differed between the DCE and BWS models. Further, poor correlation between the DCE and BWS weights was observed. While only a minority of respondents reported difficulty completing either task (22.2% DCE, 31.9% BWS), the majority (72.6%) preferred the DCE over BWS task. This study provides reassurance that many criteria routinely used for technology decision making are considered to be relevant by the public. The findings clearly indicate the perceived importance of prevention and early diagnosis. The dissimilarity observed between DCE and profile case BWS weights is contrary to the findings of previous comparisons and raises uncertainty regarding the comparative merits of these stated preference methods in a priority-setting context. © The Author(s) 2014.

  17. Conceptual design of an integrated technology model for carbon policy assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Dimotakes, Paul E. (NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA)

    2011-01-01

    This report describes the conceptual design of a technology choice model for understanding strategies to reduce carbon intensity in the electricity sector. The report considers the major modeling issues affecting technology policy assessment and defines an implementable model construct. Further, the report delineates the basis causal structure of such a model and attempts to establish the technical/algorithmic viability of pursuing model development along with the associated analyses.

  18. Extended cox regression model: The choice of timefunction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isik, Hatice; Tutkun, Nihal Ata; Karasoy, Durdu

    2017-07-01

    Cox regression model (CRM), which takes into account the effect of censored observations, is one the most applicative and usedmodels in survival analysis to evaluate the effects of covariates. Proportional hazard (PH), requires a constant hazard ratio over time, is the assumptionofCRM. Using extended CRM provides the test of including a time dependent covariate to assess the PH assumption or an alternative model in case of nonproportional hazards. In this study, the different types of real data sets are used to choose the time function and the differences between time functions are analyzed and discussed.

  19. WHETHER OPEN INNOVATION IS A BETTER CHOICE AS A MODEL OF INNOVATION FOR ORGANIZATIONS?

    OpenAIRE

    KANBUR, AYSUN; A. H. MOHAMED, Ibrahim

    2018-01-01

    This studypresents a review of innovation models and by taking consideration andexamining these models it is aimed to understand whether the model based onopen innovation is a better choice among all the other models. Fororganizations, innovation models generally demonstrate how to work in aninnovative point of view. Companies of today’s business life are striving todevelop their capabilities and their activities to become innovative companies.Many of the organizations try to find the most su...

  20. A Simulation-Based Dynamic Stochastic Route Choice Model for Evacuation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xing Zhao

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper establishes a dynamic stochastic route choice model for evacuation to simulate the propagation process of traffic flow and estimate the stochastic route choice under evacuation situations. The model contains a lane-group-based cell transmission model (CTM which sets different traffic capacities for links with different turning movements to flow out in an evacuation situation, an actual impedance model which is to obtain the impedance of each route in time units at each time interval and a stochastic route choice model according to the probit-based stochastic user equilibrium. In this model, vehicles loading at each origin at each time interval are assumed to choose an evacuation route under determinate road network, signal design, and OD demand. As a case study, the proposed model is validated on the network nearby Nanjing Olympic Center after the opening ceremony of the 10th National Games of the People's Republic of China. The traffic volumes and clearing time at five exit points of the evacuation zone are calculated by the model to compare with survey data. The results show that this model can appropriately simulate the dynamic route choice and evolution process of the traffic flow on the network in an evacuation situation.

  1. Effects of chronic administration of drugs of abuse on impulsive choice (delay discounting) in animal models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Setlow, Barry; Mendez, Ian A; Mitchell, Marci R; Simon, Nicholas W

    2009-09-01

    Drug-addicted individuals show high levels of impulsive choice, characterized by preference for small immediate over larger but delayed rewards. Although the causal relationship between chronic drug use and elevated impulsive choice in humans has been unclear, a small but growing body of literature over the past decade has shown that chronic drug administration in animal models can cause increases in impulsive choice, suggesting that a similar causal relationship may exist in human drug users. This article reviews this literature, with a particular focus on the effects of chronic cocaine administration, which have been most thoroughly characterized. The potential mechanisms of these effects are described in terms of drug-induced neural alterations in ventral striatal and prefrontal cortical brain systems. Some implications of this research for pharmacological treatment of drug-induced increases in impulsive choice are discussed, along with suggestions for future research in this area.

  2. Measurement model choice influenced randomized controlled trial results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorter, Rosalie; Fox, Jean-Paul; Apeldoorn, Adri; Twisk, Jos

    2016-11-01

    In randomized controlled trials (RCTs), outcome variables are often patient-reported outcomes measured with questionnaires. Ideally, all available item information is used for score construction, which requires an item response theory (IRT) measurement model. However, in practice, the classical test theory measurement model (sum scores) is mostly used, and differences between response patterns leading to the same sum score are ignored. The enhanced differentiation between scores with IRT enables more precise estimation of individual trajectories over time and group effects. The objective of this study was to show the advantages of using IRT scores instead of sum scores when analyzing RCTs. Two studies are presented, a real-life RCT, and a simulation study. Both IRT and sum scores are used to measure the construct and are subsequently used as outcomes for effect calculation. The bias in RCT results is conditional on the measurement model that was used to construct the scores. A bias in estimated trend of around one standard deviation was found when sum scores were used, where IRT showed negligible bias. Accurate statistical inferences are made from an RCT study when using IRT to estimate construct measurements. The use of sum scores leads to incorrect RCT results. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. The role of intention as mediator between latent effects and behavior: application of a hybrid choice model to study departure time choices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorhauge, Mikkel; Cherchi, Elisabetta; Walker, Joan L.

    2017-01-01

    of them consider the effect of intention and its role as mediator between those psychological effects and the choice, as implied in the Theory of Planned Behavior. In this paper we contribute to the literature in this field by specifically studying the direct effect of the intention on the actual behavior......, while attitude, social norms, and perceived behavioral control affect the intention to behave in a given way. We apply a hybrid choice model to study the departure time choice. For this, we use data from Danish commuters in the morning rush hours in the Greater Copenhagen area. We find a significant...

  4. A case of a laptop learning campus: how do technology choices affect perceptions?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer Percival

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Laptop learning programs have been developed to create ubiquitous online learning environments. Given the infancy of many programs, there is little understanding of aspects of the program are perceived to provide value to faculty and students. This paper focuses on the value proposition (with respect to perceived benefits versus capital investment for undergraduate students in a mandatory, campus-wide, comprehensive laptop learning program. Results indicate that the perceived value of the laptop for technical programs such as science, engineering, and information technology, and liberal arts programs such as business and criminology, justice, and policy studies are significantly different. This difference results in a clear need to use different laptop learning models for each type of program and that a single campus-wide model will likely prove unsatisfactory for most students. A need to better communicate the true value of industry-specific software and skills acquisition is also highlighted.

  5. A discrete-choice model with social interactions : With an application to high school teen behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soetevent, Adriaan R.; Kooreman, Peter

    2007-01-01

    We develop an empirical discrete-choice interaction model with a finite number of agents. We characterize its equilibrium properties-in particular the correspondence between interaction strength, number of agents, and the set of equilibria-and propose to estimate the model by means of simulation

  6. Towards models of strategic spatial choice behaviour: theory and application issues

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Han, Q.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2005-01-01

    Models of spatial choice behaviour have been around in urban planning for decades to assess the feasibility of planning actions or to predict external (competition) effects on existing destinations. The well known spatial interaction models of the 1970s have gradually been replaced by discrete

  7. Decision-Tree Models of Categorization Response Times, Choice Proportions, and Typicality Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lafond, Daniel; Lacouture, Yves; Cohen, Andrew L.

    2009-01-01

    The authors present 3 decision-tree models of categorization adapted from T. Trabasso, H. Rollins, and E. Shaughnessy (1971) and use them to provide a quantitative account of categorization response times, choice proportions, and typicality judgments at the individual-participant level. In Experiment 1, the decision-tree models were fit to…

  8. Perceived and Implicit Ranking of Academic Journals: An Optimization Choice Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Frank Tian; Cai, Jane Z.; Pan, Yue

    2012-01-01

    A new system of ranking academic journals is proposed in this study and optimization choice model used to analyze data collected from 346 faculty members in a business discipline. The ranking model uses the aggregation of perceived, implicit sequencing of academic journals by academicians, therefore eliminating several key shortcomings of previous…

  9. Random regret minimization : Exploration of a new choice model for environmental and resource economics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thiene, M.; Boeri, M.; Chorus, C.G.

    2011-01-01

    This paper introduces the discrete choice model-paradigm of Random Regret Minimization (RRM) to the field of environmental and resource economics. The RRM-approach has been very recently developed in the context of travel demand modelling and presents a tractable, regret-based alternative to the

  10. Accounting for perception in random regret choice models: Weberian and generalized Weberian specifications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jang, S.; Rasouli, S.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2016-01-01

    Recently, regret-based choice models have been introduced in the travel behavior research community as an alternative to expected/random utility models. The fundamental proposition underlying regret theory is that individuals minimize the amount of regret they (are expected to) experience when

  11. A discrete choice model with social interactions; with an application to high school teen behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soetevent, Adriaan R.; Kooreman, Peter

    2004-01-01

    We develop an empirical discrete choice interaction model with a finite number of agents. We characterize its equilibrium properties - in particular the correspondence between the interaction strength, the number of agents, and the set of equilibria - and propose to estimate the model by means of

  12. A discrete choice model with social interactions; with an application to high school teen behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soetevent, A.R.; Kooreman, P.

    2007-01-01

    We develop an empirical discrete-choice interaction model with a finite number of agents. We characterize its equilibrium properties - in particular the correspondence between interaction strength, number of agents, and the set of equilibria - and propose to estimate the model by means of simulation

  13. A Stochastic Route Choice Model for Car Travellers in the Copenhagen Region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Otto Anker; Frederiksen, Rasmus Dyhr; Daly, A.

    2002-01-01

    The paper presents a large-scale stochastic road traffic assignment model for the Copenhagen Region. The model considers several classes of passenger cars (different trip purposes), vans and trucks, each with its own utility function on which route choices are based. The utility functions include...

  14. Collation of Scientific Evidence on Consumer Acceptance of New Food Technologies: Three roads to consumer choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fischer, A.R.H.; Trijp, van J.C.M.; Hofenk, D.J.B.; Ronteltap, A.; Tudoran, A.A.

    2012-01-01

    The current report investigates consumer acceptance of new food technologies by reviewing the scientific literature. The review is organised along three routes to consumer acceptance of new technologies: The consumer benefit road: the central road of technology features influencing experienced

  15. Technology Learning Ratios in Global Energy Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varela, M.

    2001-01-01

    The process of introduction of a new technology supposes that while its production and utilisation increases, also its operation improves and its investment costs and production decreases. The accumulation of experience and learning of a new technology increase in parallel with the increase of its market share. This process is represented by the technological learning curves and the energy sector is not detached from this process of substitution of old technologies by new ones. The present paper carries out a brief revision of the main energy models that include the technology dynamics (learning). The energy scenarios, developed by global energy models, assume that the characteristics of the technologies are variables with time. But this trend is incorporated in a exogenous way in these energy models, that is to say, it is only a time function. This practice is applied to the cost indicators of the technology such as the specific investment costs or to the efficiency of the energy technologies. In the last years, the new concept of endogenous technological learning has been integrated within these global energy models. This paper examines the concept of technological learning in global energy models. It also analyses the technological dynamics of the energy system including the endogenous modelling of the process of technological progress. Finally, it makes a comparison of several of the most used global energy models (MARKAL, MESSAGE and ERIS) and, more concretely, about the use these models make of the concept of technological learning. (Author) 17 refs

  16. Cold or hot wash: Technological choices, cultural change, and their impact on clothes-washing energy use in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, Jiang; Iyer, Maithili

    2007-01-01

    Usage pattern of clothes washing (and clothes washers) are strongly related to local cultural practices. Such practices have led to the development of distinctive clothes-washing technologies in the US, Europe, and Japan. In emerging markets such as China, several types of technologies often co-exist. Some use less energy but more water (the impeller type), and some use more energy but less water (the horizontal axis type). The competition between different technologies is thought to lead to better consumer choices. However, it could also lead to changes in clothes-washing habits-from cold to hot wash, and therefore to much higher energy use. This paper examines the standard development process in China to illustrate that adoption of foreign technologies and technical standards, if not carefully calibrated to the local cultural practices, could have unintended consequences for energy use and environment

  17. Metro passengers’ route choice model and its application considering perceived transfer threshold

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Fanglei; Zhang, Yongsheng; Liu, Shasha

    2017-01-01

    With the rapid development of the Metro network in China, the greatly increased route alternatives make passengers’ route choice behavior and passenger flow assignment more complicated, which presents challenges to the operation management. In this paper, a path sized logit model is adopted to analyze passengers’ route choice preferences considering such parameters as in-vehicle time, number of transfers, and transfer time. Moreover, the “perceived transfer threshold” is defined and included in the utility function to reflect the penalty difference caused by transfer time on passengers’ perceived utility under various numbers of transfers. Next, based on the revealed preference data collected in the Guangzhou Metro, the proposed model is calibrated. The appropriate perceived transfer threshold value and the route choice preferences are analyzed. Finally, the model is applied to a personalized route planning case to demonstrate the engineering practicability of route choice behavior analysis. The results show that the introduction of the perceived transfer threshold is helpful to improve the model’s explanatory abilities. In addition, personalized route planning based on route choice preferences can meet passengers’ diversified travel demands. PMID:28957376

  18. How the health belief model helps the tobacco industry: individuals, choice, and "information".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balbach, Edith D; Smith, Elizabeth A; Malone, Ruth E

    2006-12-01

    To analyse trial and deposition testimony of tobacco industry executives to determine how they use the concepts of "information" and "choice" and consider how these concepts are related to theoretical models of health behaviour change. We coded and analysed transcripts of trial and deposition testimony of 14 high-level executives representing six companies plus the Tobacco Institute. We conducted an interpretive analysis of industry executives' characterisation of the industry's role as information provider and the agency of tobacco consumers in making "choices". Tobacco industry executives deployed the concept of "information" as a mechanism that shifted to consumers full moral responsibility for the harms caused by tobacco products. The industry's role was characterised as that of impartial supplier of value-free "information", without regard to its quality, accuracy and truthfulness. Tobacco industry legal defences rely on assumptions congruent with and supported by individual rational choice theories, particularly those that emphasise individual, autonomous decision-makers. Tobacco control advocates and health educators must challenge the industry's preferred framing, pointing out that "information" is not value-free. Multi-level, multi-sectoral interventions are critical to tobacco use prevention. Over-reliance on individual and interpersonal rational choice models may have the effect of validating the industry's model of smoking and cessation behaviour, absolving it of responsibility and rendering invisible the "choices" the industry has made and continues to make in promoting the most deadly consumer product ever made.

  19. Random regret-based discrete-choice modelling: an application to healthcare.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Bekker-Grob, Esther W; Chorus, Caspar G

    2013-07-01

    A new modelling approach for analysing data from discrete-choice experiments (DCEs) has been recently developed in transport economics based on the notion of regret minimization-driven choice behaviour. This so-called Random Regret Minimization (RRM) approach forms an alternative to the dominant Random Utility Maximization (RUM) approach. The RRM approach is able to model semi-compensatory choice behaviour and compromise effects, while being as parsimonious and formally tractable as the RUM approach. Our objectives were to introduce the RRM modelling approach to healthcare-related decisions, and to investigate its usefulness in this domain. Using data from DCEs aimed at determining valuations of attributes of osteoporosis drug treatments and human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccinations, we empirically compared RRM models, RUM models and Hybrid RUM-RRM models in terms of goodness of fit, parameter ratios and predicted choice probabilities. In terms of model fit, the RRM model did not outperform the RUM model significantly in the case of the osteoporosis DCE data (p = 0.21), whereas in the case of the HPV DCE data, the Hybrid RUM-RRM model outperformed the RUM model (p implied by the two models can vary substantially. Differences in model fit between RUM, RRM and Hybrid RUM-RRM were found to be small. Although our study did not show significant differences in parameter ratios, the RRM and Hybrid RUM-RRM models did feature considerable differences in terms of the trade-offs implied by these ratios. In combination, our results suggest that RRM and Hybrid RUM-RRM modelling approach hold the potential of offering new and policy-relevant insights for health researchers and policy makers.

  20. Quantitative Analysis of Complex Multiple-Choice Items in Science Technology and Society: Item Scaling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ángel Vázquez Alonso

    2005-05-01

    Full Text Available The scarce attention to assessment and evaluation in science education research has been especially harmful for Science-Technology-Society (STS education, due to the dialectic, tentative, value-laden, and controversial nature of most STS topics. To overcome the methodological pitfalls of the STS assessment instruments used in the past, an empirically developed instrument (VOSTS, Views on Science-Technology-Society have been suggested. Some methodological proposals, namely the multiple response models and the computing of a global attitudinal index, were suggested to improve the item implementation. The final step of these methodological proposals requires the categorization of STS statements. This paper describes the process of categorization through a scaling procedure ruled by a panel of experts, acting as judges, according to the body of knowledge from history, epistemology, and sociology of science. The statement categorization allows for the sound foundation of STS items, which is useful in educational assessment and science education research, and may also increase teachers’ self-confidence in the development of the STS curriculum for science classrooms.

  1. Collaboration for Technological Innovation: Choices and Decisions that Make Partnerships Excel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonia Regina Mangiavacchi Tuccori

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to understand the relationship between strategies and collaborative organizational arrangements and the defining of their position within the corporate power structure. The strategic approach employed herein is that of case studies so as to comprehend the peculiarities and the value proposition of the management model of innovation networks at a Brazilian company that operates in the personal hygiene, perfumery and cosmetics segment. To excel within an environment marked by increased global competition, companies have to develop and learn with an innovative work structure and culture. This derives from the rapid shortening of product life cycles which drives the need to innovate at more frequent intervals and to develop technologies, processes, products and/or services more efficiently. Furthermore, given increased product, technologies and processes complexity, attention is drawn to the expansion of costs and risks to innovate to the extent of enhancing uncertainties and pressure on R&D+i (Research, Development and Innovation budgets. Meanwhile, the need for interdisciplinarity by means of cooperation likewise comes to light.

  2. Models for formation and choice of variants for organizing digital electronics manufacturing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korshunov, G. I.; Lapkova, M. Y.; Polyakov, S. L.; Frolova, E. A.

    2018-03-01

    The directions of organizing digital electronics manufacturing are considered by the example of surface mount technology. The basic equipment choice has to include not only individual characteristics, but also mutual influence of individual machines and the results of design for manufacturing. Application of special cases of the Utility function which are complicated in the general representation of polynomial functions are proposed for estimation of product quality in a staged automation.

  3. Modeling tourists joint choices of transportation and destination : towards an analytical tool to support the marketing of complex tourism services

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dellaert, B.G.C.; Borgers, A.W.J.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    1993-01-01

    This paper introduces a model to describe tourists’ joint choices of transportation and destination. The proposed modeling approach is based on the principles and methodology of decompositional choice modeling. It represents an extension of the models that have traditionally been applied to single

  4. Freedom of choice in technology strategy? An analysis of technology strategy in the large commercial aircraft industry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Bruijn, E.J.; Steenhuis, H.J.

    2004-01-01

    Many companies experience difficult situations as a result of their selected strategy. Strategic management theories implicitly assume that companies have a free choice in setting their strategy. Hence, when companies experience difficult situations this is because of management inadequacy. It is

  5. Teacher Models of Technology Integration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterman, Leinda

    2003-01-01

    Provides examples of best practices in technology integration from five Technology Innovation Challenge Grant (TICG) programs, funded through the Department of Education to meet the No Child Left Behind technology goals. Highlights include professional development activities in Louisiana and New Mexico; collaborative learning applications; and…

  6. Modelling in Medical Technology Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B.C. Michel (Bowine)

    1996-01-01

    textabstractHealth care is a rapidly developing field in which new technologies are introduced continuously. Not all new technologies have the same impact however: most represent only small changes in existing technologies, whereas only a few - like organ transplants - really are revolutionary new

  7. Innovations and airborne pollutants. An economic assessment of the influence of different boundary conditions with explicit modelling of the choice of technology in the industrial sector. Interim report - documentation for the steel industry; Innovationen und Luftschadstoffemissionen. Eine gesamtwirtschaftliche Abschaetzung des Einflusses unterschiedlicher Rahmenbedingungen bei expliziter Modellierung der Technologiewahl im Industriesektor. Zwischenbericht - Dokumentation Stahlindustrie

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schleich, J.; Nathani, C.; Ostertag, K.; Schoen, M.; Walz, R.; Meyer, B.; Lutz, C.; Distelkamp, M.; Wolter, M.I.; Hohmann, F.

    2002-04-01

    The project attempted an improved modelling of technological progress. For this, the basic technological processes of selected energy-intensive sectors of the econometric input-output model PANTA RHEI are mapped in a model-consistent systematics. Technological progress is assumed to derive from the modelled decision making behaviour during selection of a technology. Apart from an improved assessment of the economic and environmental effects of political decisions, also the innovation effects are modelled. Further, politically induced technological progress is reduced explicitly to technologies. [German] Ziel des Projekts ist eine methodisch verbesserte Modellierung des technischen Fortschritts. Dazu werden fuer ausgewaehlte energieintensive Branchen des oekonometrischen Input-Output Modells PANTA RHEI die zugrunde liegenden technologischen Prozesse in einer modellkonsistenten Systematik abgebildet. Ein weiteres innovatives Element besteht darin, dass technischer Fortschritt auf das modellierte Entscheidungsverhalten bei der Technikwahl zurueckgefuehrt werden kann. Die gewaehlte Modellierung erlaubt nicht nur eine verbesserte Abschaetzung der durch Politikmassnahmen ausgeloesten gesamtwirtschaftlichen und der umweltrelevanten Wirkungen, sondern auch eine Bewertung der Innovationseffekte. Ausserdem laesst sich politik-induzierter, technischer Fortschritt explizit auf Technologien zurueckfuehren. (orig.)

  8. Choice and Participation of Career by STEM Professionals with Sensory and Orthopedic Disabilities and the Roles of Assistive Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pacheco, Heather A.

    This is a qualitative study about sources of self-efficacy and roles of assistive technologies (AT) associated with the science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) choice and participation of STEM professionals and graduate students with sensory and orthopedic disabilities. People with disabilities are underrepresented in STEM, which can be traced back along the STEM pipeline to early undergraduate participation in STEM. Little research exists, however, about pathways and factors associated with successful STEM participation for people with disabilities at any point along their trajectories. Eighteen STEM professionals and graduate students with sensory and orthopedic disabilities were interviewed for this study. Sources of self-efficacy were sought from interview transcripts, as were emergent themes associated with the types, uses and roles of AT. Findings suggest that people with sensory and orthopedic disabilities weigh sources of self-efficacy differently from white males without disabilities in STEM and more like other underrepresented minorities in STEM. Social persuasions were most frequently reported and in far more detail than other sources, suggesting that this source may be most impactful in the development of self-efficacy beliefs for this group. Additionally, findings indicate that AT is critical to the successful participation of people with sensory and orthopedic disabilities in STEM at all points along their STEM pathways. Barriers center around issues of access to full engagement in mainstream STEM classrooms and out of school opportunities as well as the impact of ill-informed perceptions about the capabilities of people with disabilities held by parents, teachers and college faculty who can act as gatekeepers along STEM pathways. Gaps in disability specialists' knowledge about STEM-specific assistive technologies, especially at the college level, are also problematic. The prevalence of mainstream public school attendance reported by

  9. State Disinvestment, Technologies of Choice and "Fitting In": Neoliberal Transformations in US Public Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Convertino, Christina

    2017-01-01

    Given state cuts to US public education, overcrowding and underfunding in urban district schools continue to grow. Yet, how parents understand the role of state disinvestment on underfunded and overcrowded public schools remains relatively unexamined. Drawing from an ethnographic study of school choice in Arizona, I explore how a group of white…

  10. A discrete-continuous choice model of climate change impacts on energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morrison, W.N.; Mendelsohn, R.

    1998-01-01

    This paper estimates a discrete-continuous fuel choice model in order to explore climate impacts on the energy sector. The model is estimated on a national data set of firms and households. The results reveal that actors switch from oil in cold climates to electricity and natural gas in warm climates and that fuel-specific expenditures follow a U-shaped relationship with respect to temperature. The model implies that warming will increase American energy expenditures, reflecting a sizable welfare damage

  11. Fuzzy Multicriteria Model for Selection of Vibration Technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Carmen Carnero

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The benefits of applying the vibration analysis program are well known and have been so for decades. A large number of contributions have been produced discussing new diagnostic, signal treatment, technical parameter analysis, and prognosis techniques. However, to obtain the expected benefits from a vibration analysis program, it is necessary to choose the instrumentation which guarantees the best results. Despite its importance, in the literature, there are no models to assist in taking this decision. This research describes an objective model using Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP to make a choice of the most suitable technology among portable vibration analysers. The aim is to create an easy-to-use model for processing, manufacturing, services, and research organizations, to guarantee adequate decision-making in the choice of vibration analysis technology. The model described recognises that judgements are often based on ambiguous, imprecise, or inadequate information that cannot provide precise values. The model incorporates judgements from several decision-makers who are experts in the field of vibration analysis, maintenance, and electronic devices. The model has been applied to a Health Care Organization.

  12. The sensitivity of ecosystem service models to choices of input data and spatial resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagstad, Kenneth J.; Cohen, Erika; Ancona, Zachary H.; McNulty, Steven; Sun, Ge

    2018-01-01

    Although ecosystem service (ES) modeling has progressed rapidly in the last 10–15 years, comparative studies on data and model selection effects have become more common only recently. Such studies have drawn mixed conclusions about whether different data and model choices yield divergent results. In this study, we compared the results of different models to address these questions at national, provincial, and subwatershed scales in Rwanda. We compared results for carbon, water, and sediment as modeled using InVEST and WaSSI using (1) land cover data at 30 and 300 m resolution and (2) three different input land cover datasets. WaSSI and simpler InVEST models (carbon storage and annual water yield) were relatively insensitive to the choice of spatial resolution, but more complex InVEST models (seasonal water yield and sediment regulation) produced large differences when applied at differing resolution. Six out of nine ES metrics (InVEST annual and seasonal water yield and WaSSI) gave similar predictions for at least two different input land cover datasets. Despite differences in mean values when using different data sources and resolution, we found significant and highly correlated results when using Spearman's rank correlation, indicating consistent spatial patterns of high and low values. Our results confirm and extend conclusions of past studies, showing that in certain cases (e.g., simpler models and national-scale analyses), results can be robust to data and modeling choices. For more complex models, those with different output metrics, and subnational to site-based analyses in heterogeneous environments, data and model choices may strongly influence study findings.

  13. Collation of Scientific Evidence on Consumer Acceptance of New Food Technologies: Three roads to consumer choice

    OpenAIRE

    Fischer, A.R.H.; Trijp, van, J.C.M.; Hofenk, D.J.B.; Ronteltap, A.; Tudoran, A.A.

    2012-01-01

    The current report investigates consumer acceptance of new food technologies by reviewing the scientific literature.The review is organised along three routes to consumer acceptance of new technologies: The consumer benefit road: the central road of technology features influencing experienced product attributes; the technology apprehension road: a socio-political road where unfamiliarity and dread may lead to negative technologyattitudes, which may create categorical rejection of any product ...

  14. On competition in a Stackelberg location-design model with deterministic supplier choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hendrix, E.M.T.

    2016-01-01

    We study a market situation where two firms maximize market capture by deciding on the location in the plane and investing in a competing quality against investment cost. Clients choose one of the suppliers; i.e. deterministic supplier choice. To study this situation, a game theoretic model is

  15. The endogenous grid method for discrete-continuous dynamic choice models with (or without) taste shocks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iskhakov, Fedor; Jørgensen, Thomas H.; Rust, John

    2017-01-01

    We present a fast and accurate computational method for solving and estimating a class of dynamic programming models with discrete and continuous choice variables. The solution method we develop for structural estimation extends the endogenous grid-point method (EGM) to discrete-continuous (DC) p...

  16. Momentous Choices: Testing nonstandard decision models in health and housing markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Filko (Martin)

    2013-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ During more than half a century, several strands of research contributed to the development of decision theory. The standard normative model for choice under uncertainty – expected utility – was given a foundation by von Neumann and Morgenstern (1944) and Savage

  17. Worldwide Diversity in Funded Pension Plans : Four Role Models on Choice and Participation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Garcia Huitron, Manuel; Ponds, Eduard

    2015-01-01

    This paper provides an in-depth comparison of funded pension savings plans around the world. The large variety in plan designs is a reflection of historical, cultural and institutional diversity. We postulate a new classification of four role models of funded pension plans, primarily based on choice

  18. A constrained multinomial Probit route choice model in the metro network: Formulation, estimation and application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yongsheng; Wei, Heng; Zheng, Kangning

    2017-01-01

    Considering that metro network expansion brings us with more alternative routes, it is attractive to integrate the impacts of routes set and the interdependency among alternative routes on route choice probability into route choice modeling. Therefore, the formulation, estimation and application of a constrained multinomial probit (CMNP) route choice model in the metro network are carried out in this paper. The utility function is formulated as three components: the compensatory component is a function of influencing factors; the non-compensatory component measures the impacts of routes set on utility; following a multivariate normal distribution, the covariance of error component is structured into three parts, representing the correlation among routes, the transfer variance of route, and the unobserved variance respectively. Considering multidimensional integrals of the multivariate normal probability density function, the CMNP model is rewritten as Hierarchical Bayes formula and M-H sampling algorithm based Monte Carlo Markov Chain approach is constructed to estimate all parameters. Based on Guangzhou Metro data, reliable estimation results are gained. Furthermore, the proposed CMNP model also shows a good forecasting performance for the route choice probabilities calculation and a good application performance for transfer flow volume prediction. PMID:28591188

  19. Doubting What to Eat: A Computational Model for Food Choice Using Different Valuing Perspectives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Abro, Altaf H.; Treur, Jan; Hirose, Akira; Ozawa, Seiichi; Doya, Kenji; Lee, Minho; Liu, Derong

    2016-01-01

    In this paper a computational model for the decision making process of food choices is presented that takes into account a number of aspects on which a decision can be based, for example, a temptation triggered by the food itself, a desire for food triggered by being hungry, valuing by the expected

  20. Quantum Cournot equilibrium for the Hotelling–Smithies model of product choice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rahaman, Ramij; Majumdar, Priyadarshi; Basu, B

    2012-01-01

    This paper demonstrates the quantization of a spatial Cournot duopoly model with product choice, a two stage game focusing on non-cooperation in locations and quantities. With quantization, the players can access a continuous set of strategies, using a continuous variable quantum mechanical approach. The presence of quantum entanglement in the initial state identifies a quantity equilibrium for each location pair choice with any transport cost. Also higher profit is obtained by the firms at Nash equilibrium. Adoption of quantum strategies rewards us by the existence of a larger quantum strategic space at equilibrium. (paper)

  1. An aggregate method to calibrate the reference point of cumulative prospect theory-based route choice model for urban transit network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yufeng; Long, Man; Luo, Sida; Bao, Yu; Shen, Hanxia

    2015-12-01

    Transit route choice model is the key technology of public transit systems planning and management. Traditional route choice models are mostly based on expected utility theory which has an evident shortcoming that it cannot accurately portray travelers' subjective route choice behavior for their risk preferences are not taken into consideration. Cumulative prospect theory (CPT), a brand new theory, can be used to describe travelers' decision-making process under the condition of uncertainty of transit supply and risk preferences of multi-type travelers. The method to calibrate the reference point, a key parameter to CPT-based transit route choice model, determines the precision of the model to a great extent. In this paper, a new method is put forward to obtain the value of reference point which combines theoretical calculation and field investigation results. Comparing the proposed method with traditional method, it shows that the new method can promote the quality of CPT-based model by improving the accuracy in simulating travelers' route choice behaviors based on transit trip investigation from Nanjing City, China. The proposed method is of great significance to logical transit planning and management, and to some extent makes up the defect that obtaining the reference point is solely based on qualitative analysis.

  2. Multimodal route choice models of public transport passengers in the Greater Copenhagen Area

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Anderson, Marie Karen; Nielsen, Otto Anker; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2014-01-01

    Understanding route choice behavior is crucial to explain travelers’ preferences and to predict traffic flows under different scenarios. A growing body of literature has concentrated on public transport users without, however, concentrating on multimodal public transport networks because......,641 public transport users in the Greater Copenhagen Area.A two-stage approach consisting of choice set generation and route choice model estimation allowed uncovering the preferences of the users of this multimodal large-scale public transport network. The results illustrate the rates of substitution...... not only of the in-vehicle times for different public transport modes, but also of the other time components (e.g., access, walking, waiting, transfer) composing the door-to-door experience of using a multimodal public transport network, differentiating by trip length and purpose, and accounting...

  3. Specialty choice preference of medical students according to personality traits by Five-Factor Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwon, Oh Young; Park, So Youn

    2016-03-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between personality traits, using the Five-Factor Model, and characteristics and motivational factors affecting specialty choice in Korean medical students. A questionnaire survey of Year 4 medical students (n=110) in July 2015 was administered. We evaluated the personality traits of Extraversion, Agreeableness, Conscientiousness, Neuroticism, and Openness by using the Korean version of Big Five Inventory. Questions about general characteristics, medical specialties most preferred as a career, motivational factors in determining specialty choice were included. Data between five personality traits and general characteristics and motivational factors affecting specialty choice were analyzed using Student t-test, Mann-Whitney test and analysis of variance. Of the 110 eligible medical students, 105 (95.4% response rate) completed the questionnaire. More Agreeableness students preferred clinical medicine to basic medicine (p=0.010) and more Openness students preferred medical departments to others (p=0.031). Personal interest was the significant motivational factors in more Openness students (p=0.003) and Conscientiousness students (p=0.003). Medical students with more Agreeableness were more likely to prefer clinical medicine and those with more Openness preferred medical departments. Personal interest was a significant influential factor determining specialty choice in more Openness and Conscientiousness students. These findings may be helpful to medical educators or career counselors in the specialty choice process.

  4. Specialty choice preference of medical students according to personality traits by Five-Factor Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oh Young Kwon

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between personality traits, using the Five-Factor Model, and characteristics and motivational factors affecting specialty choice in Korean medical students. Methods: A questionnaire survey of Year 4 medical students (n=110 in July 2015 was administered. We evaluated the personality traits of Extraversion, Agreeableness, Conscientiousness, Neuroticism, and Openness by using the Korean version of Big Five Inventory. Questions about general characteristics, medical specialties most preferred as a career, motivational factors in determining specialty choice were included. Data between five personality traits and general characteristics and motivational factors affecting specialty choice were analyzed using Student t-test, Mann-Whitney test and analysis of variance. Results: Of the 110 eligible medical students, 105 (95.4% response rate completed the questionnaire. More Agreeableness students preferred clinical medicine to basic medicine (p=0.010 and more Openness students preferred medical departments to others (p=0.031. Personal interest was the significant motivational factors in more Openness students (p=0.003 and Conscientiousness students (p=0.003. Conclusion: Medical students with more Agreeableness were more likely to prefer clinical medicine and those with more Openness preferred medical departments. Personal interest was a significant influential factor determining specialty choice in more Openness and Conscientiousness students. These findings may be helpful to medical educators or career counselors in the specialty choice process.

  5. Pairwise Choice Markov Chains

    OpenAIRE

    Ragain, Stephen; Ugander, Johan

    2016-01-01

    As datasets capturing human choices grow in richness and scale---particularly in online domains---there is an increasing need for choice models that escape traditional choice-theoretic axioms such as regularity, stochastic transitivity, and Luce's choice axiom. In this work we introduce the Pairwise Choice Markov Chain (PCMC) model of discrete choice, an inferentially tractable model that does not assume any of the above axioms while still satisfying the foundational axiom of uniform expansio...

  6. Advanced Manufacturing Technologies (AMT): Composites Integrated Modeling

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Composites Integrated Modeling (CIM) Element developed low cost, lightweight, and efficient composite structures, materials and manufacturing technologies with...

  7. Interneuronal Mechanism for Tinbergen’s Hierarchical Model of Behavioral Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirger, Zsolt; Crossley, Michael; László, Zita; Naskar, Souvik; Kemenes, György; O’Shea, Michael; Benjamin, Paul R.; Kemenes, Ildikó

    2014-01-01

    Summary Recent studies of behavioral choice support the notion that the decision to carry out one behavior rather than another depends on the reconfiguration of shared interneuronal networks [1]. We investigated another decision-making strategy, derived from the classical ethological literature [2, 3], which proposes that behavioral choice depends on competition between autonomous networks. According to this model, behavioral choice depends on inhibitory interactions between incompatible hierarchically organized behaviors. We provide evidence for this by investigating the interneuronal mechanisms mediating behavioral choice between two autonomous circuits that underlie whole-body withdrawal [4, 5] and feeding [6] in the pond snail Lymnaea. Whole-body withdrawal is a defensive reflex that is initiated by tactile contact with predators. As predicted by the hierarchical model, tactile stimuli that evoke whole-body withdrawal responses also inhibit ongoing feeding in the presence of feeding stimuli. By recording neurons from the feeding and withdrawal networks, we found no direct synaptic connections between the interneuronal and motoneuronal elements that generate the two behaviors. Instead, we discovered that behavioral choice depends on the interaction between two unique types of interneurons with asymmetrical synaptic connectivity that allows withdrawal to override feeding. One type of interneuron, the Pleuro-Buccal (PlB), is an extrinsic modulatory neuron of the feeding network that completely inhibits feeding when excited by touch-induced monosynaptic input from the second type of interneuron, Pedal-Dorsal12 (PeD12). PeD12 plays a critical role in behavioral choice by providing a synaptic pathway joining the two behavioral networks that underlies the competitive dominance of whole-body withdrawal over feeding. PMID:25155505

  8. Critical issues in the choice of appropriate communication technology by Third World countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonaike, S A

    1987-01-01

    Recent experience suggests that the most appropriate form of technology for the Third World is an adapted, intermediate (less capital intensive) technology, founded around the needs of the people and utilizing readily available resources. When technology is used to relieve the symptoms of underdevelopment, a technologic misfit manifested in an overemphasis on prestige projects and the urban industrial sector results. Advanced communication technologies such as satellites are generally capital intensive, require high technical skills to install and maintain, and need sophisticated levels of management to function properly. These conditions are not easily met in the Third World, underscoring the need for intermediate technology as manifested in small and medium-sized business enterprises. Such an approach blends traditional technology, minimal capital, simple management structure, ample labor, and humane operation with the gains from sophisticated technology. Intermediate technology can serve as a good training ground for indigenous people in modern business methods and provide jobs for the unemployed. Most importantly, intermediate technology can function as an integral part of the larger society rather than as a loosely attached appendage grafted on by some foreign country. In the field of communication, such an approach would manifest itself in a willingness to operate professionally with simple portable cameras, an acceptance of the importance of rural radio broadcasting and village newspapers, a willingness on the part of trained media professionals to try out locally produced hardware, and an exploration of cheaper ways of producing textbooks.

  9. Technology and Online Education: Models for Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Catherine W.; Sonnenberg, Christian

    2014-01-01

    This paper contends that technology changes advance online education. A number of mobile computing and transformative technologies will be examined and incorporated into a descriptive study. The object of the study will be to design innovative mobile awareness models seeking to understand technology changes for mobile devices and how they can be…

  10. A Technological Teacher Education Program Planning Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Ronald E.

    1993-01-01

    A model for technology teacher education curriculum has three facets: (1) purpose (experiential learning, personal development, technological enlightenment, economic well-being); (2) content (professional knowledge, curriculum development competence, pedagogical knowledge and skill, technological foundations); and (3) process (planned reflection,…

  11. Modeling the Choice of Telecommuting Frequency in California: An Exploratory Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Mannering, Jill S.; Mokhtarian, Patricia L.

    1995-01-01

    This study explores the individual's choice of telecommuting frequency as a function of demographic, travel, work and attitudinal factors. To do this, multinomial logit models are estimated using data collected in a recent survey of employees from three public agencies in California. Separate models are estimated, one for data collected from the Franchise Tax Board in Sacramento, one for data from the Public Utilities Commission in San Francisco, and one for data collected from employees of t...

  12. The Diffusion Decision Model: Theory and Data for Two-Choice Decision Tasks

    OpenAIRE

    Ratcliff, Roger; McKoon, Gail

    2008-01-01

    The diffusion decision model allows detailed explanations of behavior in two-choice discrimination tasks. In this article, the model is reviewed to show how it translates behavioral data—accuracy, mean response times, and response time distributions—into components of cognitive processing. Three experiments are used to illustrate experimental manipulations of three components: stimulus difficulty affects the quality of information on which a decision is based; instructions emphasizing either ...

  13. Simultaneous modeling of visual saliency and value computation improves predictions of economic choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Towal, R Blythe; Mormann, Milica; Koch, Christof

    2013-10-01

    Many decisions we make require visually identifying and evaluating numerous alternatives quickly. These usually vary in reward, or value, and in low-level visual properties, such as saliency. Both saliency and value influence the final decision. In particular, saliency affects fixation locations and durations, which are predictive of choices. However, it is unknown how saliency propagates to the final decision. Moreover, the relative influence of saliency and value is unclear. Here we address these questions with an integrated model that combines a perceptual decision process about where and when to look with an economic decision process about what to choose. The perceptual decision process is modeled as a drift-diffusion model (DDM) process for each alternative. Using psychophysical data from a multiple-alternative, forced-choice task, in which subjects have to pick one food item from a crowded display via eye movements, we test four models where each DDM process is driven by (i) saliency or (ii) value alone or (iii) an additive or (iv) a multiplicative combination of both. We find that models including both saliency and value weighted in a one-third to two-thirds ratio (saliency-to-value) significantly outperform models based on either quantity alone. These eye fixation patterns modulate an economic decision process, also described as a DDM process driven by value. Our combined model quantitatively explains fixation patterns and choices with similar or better accuracy than previous models, suggesting that visual saliency has a smaller, but significant, influence than value and that saliency affects choices indirectly through perceptual decisions that modulate economic decisions.

  14. What influences the choice of assessment methods in health technology assessments? Statistical analysis of international health technology assessments from 1989 to 2002.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Draborg, Eva; Andersen, Christian Kronborg

    2006-01-01

    Health technology assessment (HTA) has been used as input in decision making worldwide for more than 25 years. However, no uniform definition of HTA or agreement on assessment methods exists, leaving open the question of what influences the choice of assessment methods in HTAs. The objective of this study is to analyze statistically a possible relationship between methods of assessment used in practical HTAs, type of assessed technology, type of assessors, and year of publication. A sample of 433 HTAs published by eleven leading institutions or agencies in nine countries was reviewed and analyzed by multiple logistic regression. The study shows that outsourcing of HTA reports to external partners is associated with a higher likelihood of using assessment methods, such as meta-analysis, surveys, economic evaluations, and randomized controlled trials; and with a lower likelihood of using assessment methods, such as literature reviews and "other methods". The year of publication was statistically related to the inclusion of economic evaluations and shows a decreasing likelihood during the year span. The type of assessed technology was related to economic evaluations with a decreasing likelihood, to surveys, and to "other methods" with a decreasing likelihood when pharmaceuticals were the assessed type of technology. During the period from 1989 to 2002, no major developments in assessment methods used in practical HTAs were shown statistically in a sample of 433 HTAs worldwide. Outsourcing to external assessors has a statistically significant influence on choice of assessment methods.

  15. Older adults' motivated choice for technological innovation: Evidence for benefit-driven selectivity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Melenhorst, Anne-Sophie; Rogers, Wendy A.; Bouwhuis, Don G.

    2006-01-01

    This study examined older adults' motivation to adopt technological innovation. Sixty-eight older e-mail users and nonusers discussed the use of e-mail and of traditional communication methods in 18 focus groups. The results show older adults' benefit-driven approach to new communication technology.

  16. Older adults motivated choice for technological innovation: evidence for benefit-driven selectivity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Melenhorst, A.S.; Rogers, W.A.; Bouwhuis, D.G.

    2006-01-01

    This study examined older adults' motivation to adopt technological innovation. Sixty-eight older e-mail users and nonusers discussed the use of e-mail and of traditional communication methods in 18 focus groups. The results show older adults' benefit-driven approach to new communication technology.

  17. Acquisition of choice in concurrent chains: Assessing the cumulative decision model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grace, Randolph C

    2016-05-01

    Concurrent chains is widely used to study pigeons' choice between terminal links that can vary in delay, magnitude, or probability of reinforcement. We review research on the acquisition of choice in this procedure. Acquisition has been studied with a variety of research designs, and some studies have incorporated no-food trials to allow for timing and choice to be observed concurrently. Results show that: Choice can be acquired rapidly within sessions when terminal links change unpredictably; under steady-state conditions, acquisition depends on both initial- and terminal-link schedules; and initial-link responding is mediated by learning about the terminal-link stimulus-reinforcer relations. The cumulative decision model (CDM) proposed by Christensen and Grace (2010) and Grace and McLean (2006, 2015) provides a good description of within-session acquisition, and correctly predicts the effects of initial and terminal-link schedules in steady-state designs (Grace, 2002a). Questions for future research include how abrupt shifts in preference within individual sessions and temporal control of terminal-link responding can be modeled. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Food and energy choices for India: a programming model with partial endogenous energy requirements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parikh, K S; Srinivasan, T N

    1980-09-01

    This paper presents a mathematical model for all matter-energy processing subsystems at the level of the society, specifically India. It explores India's choices in the food and energy sectors over the coming decades. Alternative land intensive, irrigation energy intensive, and fertilizer intensive techniques of food production are identified using a nonlinear programming model. The land saved is devoted to growing firewood. The optimum combination of railway (steam, diesel, and electric traction) and road (automobiles, diesel trucks, and diesel and gasoline buses) transport is determined. For the oil sector, two alternative sources of supply of crude oil and petroleum products are included, namely, domestic production and imports. The optimum choice is determined through a linear programming model. While the model is basically a static one, designed to determine the optimal choice for the target year of 2000-2001, certain intertemporal detail is incorporated for electricity generation. The model minimizes the costs of meeting the needs for food, transport in terms of passenger kilometers and goods per ton per kilometer, energy needs for domestic cooking and lighting, and the energy needs of the rest of the economy.

  19. Technological Literacy Reconsidered: A Model for Enactment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingerman, Ake; Collier-Reed, Brandon

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a model to describe technological literacy as enacted by individuals in the course of shaping their lives and the world around them. The model has two interrelated facets--the "potential" for and "enactment" of technological literacy--where enactment and potential mutually constitute each other. This "potential" is made up of…

  20. A Model Technology Educator: Thomas A. Edison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pretzer, William S.; Rogers, George E.; Bush, Jeffery

    2007-01-01

    Reflecting back over a century ago to the small village of Menlo Park, New Jersey provides insight into a remarkable visionary and an exceptional role model for today's problem-solving and design-focused technology educator: Thomas A. Edison, inventor, innovator, and model technology educator. Since Edison could not simply apply existing knowledge…

  1. Choice certainty in Discrete Choice Experiments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Uggeldahl, Kennet Christian; Jacobsen, Catrine; Lundhede, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    In this study, we conduct a Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE) using eye tracking technology to investigate if eye movements during the completion of choice sets reveal information about respondents’ choice certainty. We hypothesise that the number of times that respondents shift their visual...

  2. Sensorimotor learning biases choice behavior: a learning neural field model for decision making.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Klaes

    Full Text Available According to a prominent view of sensorimotor processing in primates, selection and specification of possible actions are not sequential operations. Rather, a decision for an action emerges from competition between different movement plans, which are specified and selected in parallel. For action choices which are based on ambiguous sensory input, the frontoparietal sensorimotor areas are considered part of the common underlying neural substrate for selection and specification of action. These areas have been shown capable of encoding alternative spatial motor goals in parallel during movement planning, and show signatures of competitive value-based selection among these goals. Since the same network is also involved in learning sensorimotor associations, competitive action selection (decision making should not only be driven by the sensory evidence and expected reward in favor of either action, but also by the subject's learning history of different sensorimotor associations. Previous computational models of competitive neural decision making used predefined associations between sensory input and corresponding motor output. Such hard-wiring does not allow modeling of how decisions are influenced by sensorimotor learning or by changing reward contingencies. We present a dynamic neural field model which learns arbitrary sensorimotor associations with a reward-driven Hebbian learning algorithm. We show that the model accurately simulates the dynamics of action selection with different reward contingencies, as observed in monkey cortical recordings, and that it correctly predicted the pattern of choice errors in a control experiment. With our adaptive model we demonstrate how network plasticity, which is required for association learning and adaptation to new reward contingencies, can influence choice behavior. The field model provides an integrated and dynamic account for the operations of sensorimotor integration, working memory and action

  3. Development of a tool for comparing different nuclear power reactor technologies: the Mexican choice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin-del-Campo, C.; Francois, J.L.; Reyes, R.

    2007-01-01

    This paper describes a methodology which has allowed us to make a comparative assessment of nuclear power reactor options. The methodology was divided in 3 steps. The first step consists in searching of common indicators to be compared. A total of twenty indicators were considered and grouped in 3 main criteria. The second step is to obtain the values of all the indicators for each of the reactor technologies being compared. The third step is to utilize an aggregation method to integrate all the indicators in an overall qualification. Fuzzy Logic was selected as multi criteria aggregation method because it copes with imprecisely defined data; it can model non-linear functions of arbitrary complexity; and it is able to build on top of the experience of experts. The Fuzzy Logic inference system was built using the MATLAB toolbox; 3 fuzzy sets were described for each entry variable (Indicator) and 5 fuzzy sets for the output variable (Qualification). Both, the set of membership function and the set of rules were defined in combination. The methodology is simple but at the same time is powerful; it allows the use of all the indicators with their own magnitudes and units. Five reactors were compared: the Advanced Boiling Water Reactor (ABWR), the Economic Simplified Boiling Water Reactor (ESBWR), the Evolutionary Pressurized water Reactor (EPR), the Advanced Pressurized water reactor 1000 (AP1000) and the Pebbled Bed Modular Reactor (PBMR). Preliminary results were obtained using non official data obtained from public information. The qualifications of the reactors appear to be quite near. This work should be improved by taking into account which indicator is important and grading the indicators according to the situation in Mexico. (authors)

  4. Utility-free heuristic models of two-option choice can mimic predictions of utility-stage models under many conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven T Piantadosi

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Economists often model choices as if decision-makers assign each option a scalar value variable, known as utility, and then select the option with the highest utility. It remains unclear whether as-if utility models describe real mental and neural steps in choice. Although choices alone cannot prove the existence of a utility stage in choice, utility transformations are often taken to provide the most parsimonious or psychologically plausible explanation for choice data. Here, we show that it is possible to mathematically transform a large set of common utility-stage two-option choice models (specifically ones in which dimensions are linearly separable into a psychologically plausible heuristic model (specifically, a dimensional prioritization heuristic that has no utility computation stage. We then show that under a range of plausible assumptions, both classes of model predict similar neural responses. These results highlight the difficulties in using neuroeconomic data to infer the existence of a value stage in choice.

  5. Persuasive Technology and Business Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søndergaard, Morten Karnøe; Lindgren, Peter; Veirum, Niels Einar

    Recently, there has been growing interest in research on Big Data since more and more information is becoming available to us every day. This is caused by the concurrent rise of new smart technologies (mobile phones, tracking devices, sensors etc.) and social networks, which allow us to virtually...... share everything, with everybody, everywhere - and anytime. These smart technologies might also be used to persuade human beings to change their behavior. The following article aims at presenting an easily understandable way to approach these new developments. Since Big Data can be used to measure...... specific behavior, this results to the ability of designing for specific changes. Businesses use different persuasive technologies to persuade users, customers and network partners to change behavior. Operating more than one value proposition, both tangible and intangible value proposition, in combination...

  6. Older adults' motivated choice for technological innovation: evidence for benefit-driven selectivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melenhorst, Anne-Sophie; Rogers, Wendy A; Bouwhuis, Don G

    2006-03-01

    This study examined older adults' motivation to adopt technological innovation. Sixty-eight older e-mail users and nonusers discussed the use of e-mail and of traditional communication methods in 18 focus groups. The results show older adults' benefit-driven approach to new communication technology. Regardless of whether their decision about the new technology was positive or negative and irrespective of their e-mail experience, participants focused on benefits rather than costs. For traditional media, both costs and benefits were important. Results contradict the common belief that barriers such as usability problems determine whether older people use new technology and indicate the decisive role of perceived benefits for successful innovation. ((c) 2006 APA, all rights reserved).

  7. The Choices and Uses of Technological Tools in High School Government Classes

    OpenAIRE

    Wigginton, Erin O'Donnell

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine how government teachers make decisions regarding the type of technological tools they incorporate in their instruction. As a case study of two teachers, this work was oriented by the question: How are U.S. Government teachers' beliefs and perspectives about learning and teaching reflected in their pedagogical practice and use of technological tools. There is little work about how teachers prepare students for the 21st century. Teaching U.S. Gove...

  8. Modelling the Choices of Romanian Consumers in the Context of the Current Economic Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Madalina Balau

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Consumption is a key factor of the nowadays post-industrial society, while it is a real engine ofproduction, diversity of offer and demand, and motive for innovation. On the other side, consumption can beharmful to the same society and to environment if it develops in an un-sustainable way. That is why,understanding the consumer behaviour is of great importance not only to satisfy his or her needs but also tofind appropriate means to educate people and issue policies that can lead to sustainable consumption anddevelopment. The paper presents some models and theories regarding the consumer behaviour and proposesmeans to influence consumption characteristics and habits of people. The modelling approach isdeterministic, using Expectancy-Value theory, taking into account not only explicit (rational choices but alsohabits or incentives (non-rational choices, in a weighted quantitative model. The novelty of the approachconsists in the way non-rational choices are taken into consideration for the existing model, and on how it isused in determining directions for sustainable consumption. The study is developed on public data regardingconsumers of general goods in Romania.

  9. Investigating Spatial Interdependence in E-Bike Choice Using Spatially Autoregressive Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chengcheng Xu

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Increased attention has been given to promoting e-bike usage in recent years. However, the research gap still exists in understanding the effects of spatial interdependence on e-bike choice. This study investigated how spatial interdependence affected the e-bike choice. The Moran’s I statistic test showed that spatial interdependence exists in e-bike choice at aggregated level. Bayesian spatial autoregressive logistic analyses were then used to investigate the spatial interdependence at individual level. Separate models were developed for commuting and non-commuting trips. The factors affecting e-bike choice are different between commuting and non-commuting trips. Spatial interdependence exists at both origin and destination sides of commuting and non-commuting trips. Travellers are more likely to choose e-bikes if their neighbours at the trip origin and destination also travel by e-bikes. And the magnitude of this spatial interdependence is different across various traffic analysis zones. The results suggest that, without considering spatial interdependence, the traditional methods may have biased estimation results and make systematic forecasting errors.

  10. DYNAMIC MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF URBAN SPATIAL PATTERN (RESIDENTIAL CHOICE OF LOCATION: MOBILITY VS EXTERNALITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahma Fitriani

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Household’s residential choice of location determines urban spatial pattern (e.g sprawl. The static model which assumes that the choice has been affected by distance to the CBD and location specific externality, fails to capture the evoution of the pattern over time. Therefore this study proposes a dynamic version of the model. It analyses the effects of externalities on the optimal solution of development decision as function of time. It also derives the effect of mobility and externality on the rate of change of development pattern through time. When the increasing rate of utility is not as significant as the increasing rate of income, the externalities will delay the change of urban spatial pattern over time. If the mobility costs increase by large amount relative to the increase of income and inflation rate, then the mobility effect dominates the effects of externalities in delaying the urban expansion.

  11. Endogenous Reactivity in a Dynamic Model of Consumer’s Choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad K. Naimzada

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We move from a boundedly rational consumer model (Naimzada and Tramontana, 2008, 2010 characterized by a gradient-like decisional process in which, under particular parameters conditions, the asymptotical convergence to the optimal choice does not happen but it does under a least squared learning mechanism. In the present paper, we prove that even a less sophisticated learning mechanism leads to convergence to the rational choice and also prove that convergence is ensured when both learning mechanisms are available. The stability results that we obtain give more strength to the rational behavior assumption of the original model; in fact, the less demanding is the learning mechanism ensuring convergence to the rational behavior, the higher is the probability that even quite naive consumers will learn the composition of their optimum consumption bundles.

  12. Influence of non-technical policies on choices of waste solidification technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trubatch, S.L.

    1987-01-01

    This paper describes and discusses non-technical policy considerations which may improperly influence decisions on the solidification of low-level radioactive wastes (''LLW''). These policy considerations are contained principally in several State and Federal statutes which regulate various aspects of LLW disposal. One policy consideration in particular, the unqualified bias in favor of volume reduction, is shown to present a substantial potential for leading to technically suboptimal decisions on the appropriate processes for solidifying LLW. To avoid the unintended skewing of technical decisions by non-technical policy considerations, certain current policies may need to be revised to ensure that the choices of waste treatment, including decisions on solidification, are based primarily on reasonable assurance of adequate protection of public health and safety. This goal may be realized in part by basing any disposal fee structure on more than just LLW volume to include consideration of the waste's activity and its difficulty of confinement

  13. Impact of competitive electricity market on renewable generation technology choice and policies in the United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sarkar, Ashok

    1999-01-01

    Market objectives based on private value judgments will conflict with social policy objectives toward environmental quality in an emerging restructured electricity industry. This might affect the choice of renewables in the future generation mix. The US electricity industry's long-term capacity planning and operations is simulated for alternative market paradigms to study this impact. The analysis indicates that the share of renewable energy generation sources would decrease and emissions would increase considerably in a more competitive industry, with greater impact occurring in a monopoly market. Alternative environmental policy options can overcome market failures and help achieve appropriate levels of renewable generation. An evaluation of these policies indicate their varying cost-effectiveness, with higher levels of intervention necessary if market power exists. (Author)

  14. Effect of model choice and sample size on statistical tolerance limits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duran, B.S.; Campbell, K.

    1980-03-01

    Statistical tolerance limits are estimates of large (or small) quantiles of a distribution, quantities which are very sensitive to the shape of the tail of the distribution. The exact nature of this tail behavior cannot be ascertained brom small samples, so statistical tolerance limits are frequently computed using a statistical model chosen on the basis of theoretical considerations or prior experience with similar populations. This report illustrates the effects of such choices on the computations

  15. Momentous Choices: Testing nonstandard decision models in health and housing markets

    OpenAIRE

    Filko, Martin

    2013-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ During more than half a century, several strands of research contributed to the development of decision theory. The standard normative model for choice under uncertainty – expected utility – was given a foundation by von Neumann and Morgenstern (1944) and Savage (1954). It advised – and expected – reasonable actors to evaluate the consequences of their actions by the weighted sum of their utility, using probabilities of these consequences as weights. Utilities wer...

  16. Technology Acceptance Model: A Survey of Literature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Priyanka Surendran

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The technology acceptance model has been a theory that is most widely used to explain an individual’s acceptance of an information system. This study has reviewed numerous literatures available in this area. The different studies in this area were evaluated to understand the modifications that were done on this model. The paper then tries to provide an insight on future trends in the technology acceptance model.

  17. Modeling the Relation between Students' Implicit Beliefs about Their Abilities and Their Educational STEM Choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Aalderen-Smeets, Sandra I.; Walma van der Molen, Juliette H.

    2018-01-01

    Despite the large body of research on students' educational and career choices in the field of technology, design, and science, we still lack a clear understanding of how to stimulate more students to opt for a study path or career within the STEM fields (Science, Technology, Engineering, Mathematics). In this article, we outline a new theoretical…

  18. Making a technological choice for disaster management and poverty alleviation in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srivastava, Sanjay K

    2009-03-01

    The right mix of policy, institutional arrangements and use of technology provides the framework for a country's approach to disaster mitigation. Worldwide, there has been a shift away from a strictly 'top-down' approach relying on government alone, to a combination of 'top-down' and 'bottom-up' approaches. The aim is to enhance the indigenous coping mechanisms of vulnerable communities; draw on their cooperative spirit and energy; and empower them through appropriate information and contextual knowledge to mitigate natural disasters. In light of this, the paper examines India's use of space technology in its disaster management efforts. Poverty alleviation and disaster management are almost inseparable in many parts of the country, as vulnerability to natural disasters is closely aligned with poverty. Addressing these issues together requires integrated knowledge systems. The paper examines how knowledge inputs from space technology have strengthened the national resolve to combat natural disasters in conjunction with alleviating rural poverty.

  19. Heat savings and heat generation technologies: Modelling of residential investment behaviour with local health costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zvingilaite, Erika; Klinge Jacobsen, Henrik

    2015-01-01

    The trade-off between investing in energy savings and investing in individual heating technologies with high investment and low variable costs in single family houses is modelled for a number of building and consumer categories in Denmark. For each group the private economic cost of providing heating comfort is minimised. The private solution may deviate from the socio-economical optimal solution and we suggest changes to policy to incentivise the individuals to make choices more in line with the socio-economic optimal mix of energy savings and technologies. The households can combine their primary heating source with secondary heating e.g. a woodstove. This choice results in increased indoor air pollution with fine particles causing health effects. We integrate health cost due to use of woodstoves into household optimisation of heating expenditures. The results show that due to a combination of low costs of primary fuel and low environmental performance of woodstoves today, included health costs lead to decreased use of secondary heating. Overall the interdependence of heat generation technology- and heat saving-choice is significant. The total optimal level of heat savings for private consumers decrease by 66% when all have the option to shift to the technology with lowest variable costs. - Highlights: • Heat saving investment and heat technology choice are interdependent. • Health damage costs should be included in private heating choice optimisation. • Flexibility in heating technology choice reduce the optimal level of saving investments. • Models of private and socioeconomic optimal heating produce different technology mix. • Rebound effects are moderate but varies greatly among consumer categories

  20. Nutrieconomic model can facilitate healthy and low-cost food choices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Primavesi, Laura; Caccavelli, Giovanna; Ciliberto, Alessandra; Pauze, Emmanuel

    2015-04-01

    Promotion of healthy eating can no longer be postponed as a priority, given the alarming growth rate of chronic degenerative diseases in Western countries. We elaborated a nutrieconomic model to assess and identify the most nutritious and affordable food choices. Seventy-one food items representing the main food categories were included and their nationally representative prices monitored. Food composition was determined using CRA-NUT (Centro di Ricerca per gli Alimenti e la Nutrizione) and IEO (Istituto Europeo di Oncologia) databases. To define food nutritional quality, the mean adequacy ratio and mean excess ratio were combined. Both prices and nutritional quality were normalised for the edible food content and for the recommended serving sizes for the Italian adult population. Stores located in different provinces throughout Italy. Not applicable. Cereals and legumes presented very similar nutritional qualities and prices per serving. Seasonal fruits and vegetables presented differentiated nutritional qualities and almost equal prices. Products of animal origin showed similar nutritional qualities and varied prices: the best nutrieconomic choices were milk, oily fish and poultry for the dairy products, fish and meat groups, respectively. Analysing two balanced weekly menus, our nutrieconomic model was able to note a significant decrease in cost of approximately 30 % by varying animal-protein sources without affecting nutritional quality. Healthy eating does not necessarily imply spending large amounts of money but rather being able to make nutritionally optimal choices. The nutrieconomic model is an innovative and practical way to help consumers make correct food choices and nutritionists increase the compliance of their patients.

  1. Risk Route Choice Analysis and the Equilibrium Model under Anticipated Regret Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    pengcheng yuan

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The assumption about travellers’ route choice behaviour has major influence on the traffic flow equilibrium analysis. Previous studies about the travellers’ route choice were mainly based on the expected utility maximization theory. However, with the gradually increasing knowledge about the uncertainty of the transportation system, the researchers have realized that there is much constraint in expected util­ity maximization theory, because expected utility maximiza­tion requires travellers to be ‘absolutely rational’; but in fact, travellers are not truly ‘absolutely rational’. The anticipated regret theory proposes an alternative framework to the tra­ditional risk-taking in route choice behaviour which might be more scientific and reasonable. We have applied the antici­pated regret theory to the analysis of the risk route choosing process, and constructed an anticipated regret utility func­tion. By a simple case which includes two parallel routes, the route choosing results influenced by the risk aversion degree, regret degree and the environment risk degree have been analyzed. Moreover, the user equilibrium model based on the anticipated regret theory has been established. The equivalence and the uniqueness of the model are proved; an efficacious algorithm is also proposed to solve the model. Both the model and the algorithm are demonstrated in a real network. By an experiment, the model results and the real data have been compared. It was found that the model re­sults can be similar to the real data if a proper regret degree parameter is selected. This illustrates that the model can better explain the risk route choosing behaviour. Moreover, it was also found that the traveller’ regret degree increases when the environment becomes more and more risky.

  2. Impact of the second semester University Modeling Instruction course on students’ representation choices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daryl McPadden

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Representation use is a critical skill for learning, problem solving, and communicating in science, especially in physics where multiple representations often scaffold the understanding of a phenomenon. University Modeling Instruction, which is an active-learning, research-based introductory physics curriculum centered on students’ use of scientific models, has made representation use a primary learning goal with explicit class time devoted to introducing and coordinating representations as part of the model building process. However, because of the semester break, the second semester course, Modeling Instruction-Electricity and Magnetism (MI-EM, contains a mixture of students who are returning from the Modeling Instruction-mechanics course (to whom we refer to as “returning students” and students who are new to Modeling Instruction with the MI-EM course (to whom we refer to as “new students”. In this study, we analyze the impact of MI-EM on students’ representation choices across the introductory physics content for these different groups of students by examining both what individual representations students choose and their average number of representations on a modified card-sort survey with a variety of mechanics and EM questions. Using Wilcoxon-signed-rank tests, Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney tests, Cliff’s delta effect sizes, and box plots, we compare students’ representation choices from pre- to postsemester, from new and returning students, and from mechanics and EM content. We find that there is a significant difference between returning and new students’ representation choices, which serves as a baseline comparison between Modeling Instruction and traditional lecture-based physics classes. We also find that returning students maintain a high representation use across the MI-EM semester, while new students see significant growth in their representation use regardless of content.

  3. Measuring primary school teachers' pedagogical content knowledge in technology education with a multiple choice test

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rohaan, E.J.; Taconis, R.; Jochems, W.M.G.; Fatih Tasar, M.; Cakankci, G.; Akgul, E.

    2009-01-01

    Pedagogical content knowledge (PCK) is a crucial part of a teacher’s knowledge base for teaching. Studies in the field of technology education for primary schools showed that this domain of teacher knowledge is related to pupils’ increased learning, motivation, and interest. The common methods to

  4. Produced water: Market and global trends - oil production - water production - choice of technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robertson, Steve

    2006-01-01

    The presentation discusses various aspects of the world oil production, the energy demand, the future oil supply, the oil prices and the production growth. Some problems with produced water are also discussed as well as aspects of the market for produced water technology (tk)

  5. Participation in Science and Technology: Young People's Achievement-Related Choices in Late-Modern Societies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boe, Maria Vetleseter; Henriksen, Ellen Karoline; Lyons, Terry; Schreiner, Camilla

    2011-01-01

    Young people's participation in science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) is a matter of international concern. Studies and careers that require physical sciences and advanced mathematics are most affected by the problem and women in particular are under-represented in many STEM fields. This article views international research about…

  6. The choice of strategic alternatives under increasing regulation in high technology companies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birnbaum, P H

    1984-09-01

    The strategic response of U.S. high technology companies in the medical X-ray manufacturing industry to increased governmental regulations from 1962 to 1977 is examined. Results suggest that regulations increase consumer and competitor uncertainty, with the consequence that firms select less risky strategies and decrease the riskier new product invention strategy. Larger firms reduce inventions less than smaller firms.

  7. Gender Stereotypes among Women Engineering and Technology Students in the UK: Lessons from Career Choice Narratives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, Abigail; Dainty, Andrew; Bagilhole, Barbara

    2012-01-01

    In the UK, women remain under-represented in engineering and technology (E&T). Research has, therefore, investigated barriers and solutions to women's recruitment, retention and progression. Recruitment into the sector may be supported by exploring the career decisions of women and men who have chosen to study E&T. Triangulating…

  8. Tool Choice for E-Learning: Task-Technology Fit through Media Synchronicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Jun; Wang, Ying

    2014-01-01

    One major challenge in online education is how to select appropriate e-learning tools for different learning tasks. Based on the premise of Task-Technology Fit Theory, this study suggests that the effectiveness of student learning in online courses depends on the alignment between two. Furthermore, it conceptualizes the formation of such a fit…

  9. Beyond Rational Choice: How Teacher Engagement with Technology Is Mediated by Culture and Emotions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perrotta, Carlo

    2017-01-01

    This paper focuses on the relationship between rational beliefs, culture and agency in formal school settings. This relationship is analysed in the context of the adoption of technological innovations. Interviews and focus groups with 39 secondary teachers from England and other European countries were carried out. The analysis highlights a number…

  10. Analyzing Multiple-Choice Questions by Model Analysis and Item Response Curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wattanakasiwich, P.; Ananta, S.

    2010-07-01

    In physics education research, the main goal is to improve physics teaching so that most students understand physics conceptually and be able to apply concepts in solving problems. Therefore many multiple-choice instruments were developed to probe students' conceptual understanding in various topics. Two techniques including model analysis and item response curves were used to analyze students' responses from Force and Motion Conceptual Evaluation (FMCE). For this study FMCE data from more than 1000 students at Chiang Mai University were collected over the past three years. With model analysis, we can obtain students' alternative knowledge and the probabilities for students to use such knowledge in a range of equivalent contexts. The model analysis consists of two algorithms—concentration factor and model estimation. This paper only presents results from using the model estimation algorithm to obtain a model plot. The plot helps to identify a class model state whether it is in the misconception region or not. Item response curve (IRC) derived from item response theory is a plot between percentages of students selecting a particular choice versus their total score. Pros and cons of both techniques are compared and discussed.

  11. Examining Engineering & Technology Students' Acceptance of Network Virtualization Technology Using the Technology Acceptance Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousif, Wael K.

    2010-01-01

    This causal and correlational study was designed to extend the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) and to test its applicability to Valencia Community College (VCC) Engineering and Technology students as the target user group when investigating the factors influencing their decision to adopt and to utilize VMware as the target technology. In…

  12. Honoring Choices Minnesota: preliminary data from a community-wide advance care planning model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Kent S; Kottke, Thomas E; Schettle, Sue

    2014-12-01

    Advance care planning (ACP) increases the likelihood that individuals who are dying receive the care that they prefer. It also reduces depression and anxiety in family members and increases family satisfaction with the process of care. Honoring Choices Minnesota is an ACP program based on the Respecting Choices model of La Crosse, Wisconsin. The objective of this report is to describe the process, which began in 2008, of implementing Honoring Choices Minnesota in a large, diverse metropolitan area. All eight large healthcare systems in the metropolitan area agreed to participate in the project, and as of April 30, 2013, the proportion of hospitalized individuals 65 and older with advance care directives in the electronic medical record was 12.1% to 65.6%. The proportion of outpatients aged 65 and older was 11.6% to 31.7%. Organizations that had sponsored recruitment initiatives had the highest proportions of records containing healthcare directives. It was concluded that it is possible to reduce redundancy by recruiting all healthcare systems in a metropolitan area to endorse the same ACP model, although significantly increasing the proportion of individuals with a healthcare directive in their medical record requires a campaign with recruitment of organizations and individuals. © 2014 The Authors.The Journal of the American Geriatrics Society published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The American Geriatrics Society.

  13. Accounting Students’ Choice on Accounting Information Technology Careers (P.178-188

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nurul Hasanah Uswati Dewi

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The important role of accounting information systems professionals, motivate researchers to analyze further the interest of students to the profession in the field of accounting information systems. The aim of this study explores the factors that influence students to choose and do not choose a profession in the field of accounting information systems.This research was conducted using questionnaires. The population was undergraduate accounting students. Sample research was done randomly.This research shows that the interest in undergraduate accounting students for a career in the field of information systems is very small and this research also appears that the academic supervisor is one of the dominant factors influencing student choice in choosing a career in the field of information systems. Beside this, this study also found that respondents are not interested in a career in accounting information systems more due to that field of information systems is not a career they aspire.Keywords: accounting information system, accounting career, students.

  14. Hybrid choice model to disentangle the effect of awareness from attitudes: Application test of soft measures in medium size city

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sottile, Eleonora; Meloni, Italo; Cherchi, Elisabetta

    2017-01-01

    The need to reduce private vehicle use has led to the development of soft measures aimed at re-educating car users through information processes that raise their awareness about the benefits of environmentally friendly modes, encouraging them to voluntarily change their travel choice behaviour......), carried out with the purpose of promoting the use of the light rail in Park and Ride mode. To account for all these effects in the choice between car and Park and Ride we estimate a Hybrid Choice Model where the discrete choice structure allows us to estimate the effect of awareness of environment...

  15. BUSINESS MODELS FOR INCREASING TECHNOLOGICAL TRANSFER EFFECTIVENESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simina FULGA

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The present paper is devoted to analyze the appropriate recommendations to increase the effectiveness of technology transfer organizations (centers from ReNITT, by using the specific instruments of Business Model Canvas, associated to the technological transfer value chain for the value added services addressed to their clients and according to a continuously improved competitive strategy over competition analysis.

  16. Testing Ecological Theories of Offender Spatial Decision Making Using a Discrete Choice Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Summers, Lucia

    2015-01-01

    Research demonstrates that crime is spatially concentrated. However, most research relies on information about where crimes occur, without reference to where offenders reside. This study examines how the characteristics of neighborhoods and their proximity to offender home locations affect offender spatial decision making. Using a discrete choice model and data for detected incidents of theft from vehicles (TFV), we test predictions from two theoretical perspectives—crime pattern and social disorganization theories. We demonstrate that offenders favor areas that are low in social cohesion and closer to their home, or other age-related activity nodes. For adult offenders, choices also appear to be influenced by how accessible a neighborhood is via the street network. The implications for criminological theory and crime prevention are discussed. PMID:25866412

  17. PRO-ECOLOGICAL ACTIONS AND CONSUMER CHOICES IN THE MODEL OF RESPONSIBLE BUSINESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katarzyna Olejniczak

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The current farming conditions cause that recent social and environmental aspects of management play an important role for the functioning of modern enterprises. This results from the fact that on the one hand the activities of modern enterprises are determined by the surroundings’ increasing complexity, on the other hand the growing demands of various groups of stakeholders build company’s success based not only on a quest to maximize their profi t, but primarily on taking the responsibility for the consequences of their actions. Additionally, the growing awareness of consumers makes more and more enterprises implement the concept of corporate social responsibility (CSR in their actions. For this reason, it is important to discuss about the actions and choices of consumers in the model of CSR. The aim of this article is to present the results of the research on customers‘s environmentally conscious activities and choices.

  18. Testing Ecological Theories of Offender Spatial Decision Making Using a Discrete Choice Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Shane D; Summers, Lucia

    2015-04-01

    Research demonstrates that crime is spatially concentrated. However, most research relies on information about where crimes occur, without reference to where offenders reside. This study examines how the characteristics of neighborhoods and their proximity to offender home locations affect offender spatial decision making. Using a discrete choice model and data for detected incidents of theft from vehicles (TFV) , we test predictions from two theoretical perspectives-crime pattern and social disorganization theories. We demonstrate that offenders favor areas that are low in social cohesion and closer to their home, or other age-related activity nodes. For adult offenders, choices also appear to be influenced by how accessible a neighborhood is via the street network. The implications for criminological theory and crime prevention are discussed.

  19. The choices, choosing model of quality of life: linkages to a science base.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurland, Barry J; Gurland, Roni V

    2009-01-01

    A previous paper began with a critical review of current models and measures of quality of life and then proposed criteria for judging the relative merits of alternative models: preference was given to finding a model with explicit mechanisms, linkages to a science base, a means of identifying deficits amenable to rational restorative interventions, and with embedded values of the whole person. A conjectured model, based on the processes of accessing choices and choosing among them, matched the proposed criteria. The choices and choosing (c-c) process is an evolved adaptive mechanism dedicated to the pursuit of quality of life, driven by specific biological and psychological systems, and influenced also by social and environmental forces. In this paper the c-c model is examined for its potential to strengthen the science base for the field of quality of life and thus to unify many approaches to concept and measurement. A third paper in this set will lay out a guide to applying the c-c model in evaluating impairments of quality of life and will tie this evaluation to corresponding interventions aimed at relieving restrictions or distortions of the c-c process; thus helping people to preserve and improve their quality of life. The fourth paper will demonstrate empirical analyses of the relationship between health imposed restrictions of options for living and conventional indicators of diminished quality of life. (c) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  20. Optimization of a centrifugal compressor impeller using CFD: the choice of simulation model parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neverov, V. V.; Kozhukhov, Y. V.; Yablokov, A. M.; Lebedev, A. A.

    2017-08-01

    Nowadays the optimization using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) plays an important role in the design process of turbomachines. However, for the successful and productive optimization it is necessary to define a simulation model correctly and rationally. The article deals with the choice of a grid and computational domain parameters for optimization of centrifugal compressor impellers using computational fluid dynamics. Searching and applying optimal parameters of the grid model, the computational domain and solver settings allows engineers to carry out a high-accuracy modelling and to use computational capability effectively. The presented research was conducted using Numeca Fine/Turbo package with Spalart-Allmaras and Shear Stress Transport turbulence models. Two radial impellers was investigated: the high-pressure at ψT=0.71 and the low-pressure at ψT=0.43. The following parameters of the computational model were considered: the location of inlet and outlet boundaries, type of mesh topology, size of mesh and mesh parameter y+. Results of the investigation demonstrate that the choice of optimal parameters leads to the significant reduction of the computational time. Optimal parameters in comparison with non-optimal but visually similar parameters can reduce the calculation time up to 4 times. Besides, it is established that some parameters have a major impact on the result of modelling.

  1. Global Health Innovation Technology Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kimberly Harding

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Chronic technology and business process disparities between High Income, Low Middle Income and Low Income (HIC, LMIC, LIC research collaborators directly prevent the growth of sustainable Global Health innova‐ tion for infectious and rare diseases. There is a need for an Open Source-Open Science Architecture Framework to bridge this divide. We are proposing such a framework for consideration by the Global Health community, by utiliz‐ ing a hybrid approach of integrating agnostic Open Source technology and healthcare interoperability standards and Total Quality Management principles. We will validate this architecture framework through our programme called Project Orchid. Project Orchid is a conceptual Clinical Intelligence Exchange and Virtual Innovation platform utilizing this approach to support clinical innovation efforts for multi-national collaboration that can be locally sustainable for LIC and LMIC research cohorts. The goal is to enable LIC and LMIC research organizations to acceler‐ ate their clinical trial process maturity in the field of drug discovery, population health innovation initiatives and public domain knowledge networks. When sponsored, this concept will be tested by 12 confirmed clinical research and public health organizations in six countries. The potential impact of this platform is reduced drug discovery and public health innovation lag time and improved clinical trial interventions, due to reliable clinical intelligence and bio-surveillance across all phases of the clinical innovation process.

  2. How fair is safe enough? The cultural approach to societal technology choice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rayner, S.; Cantor, R.

    1987-01-01

    This paper consists of an argument and a pilot study. First is a general, perhaps philosophical, argument against the National Academy's viewpoint that dealing with risk is a two-stage process consisting of (a) assessment of facts, and (b) evaluation of facts in sociopolitical context. They argue that societal risk intrinsically revolves around social relations as much as around evaluations of probability. Second, they outline one particular approach to analyzing societal risk management styles. They call this the fairness hypothesis. Rather than focusing on probabilities and magnitudes of undesired events, this approach emphasizes societal preferences for principles of achieving consent to a technology, distributing liabilities, and investing trust in institutions. Conflict rather than probability is the chief focus of this approach to societal risk management. This view is illustrated by a recent empirical pilot study that explored the fairness hypothesis in the context of new nuclear technologies

  3. Models of care choices in today's nursing workplace: where does team nursing sit?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fairbrother, Greg; Chiarella, Mary; Braithwaite, Jeffrey

    2015-11-01

    This paper provides an overview of the developmental history of models of care (MOC) in nursing since Florence Nightingale introduced nurse training programs in a drive to make nursing a discipline-based career option. The four principal choices of models of nursing care delivery (primary nursing, individual patient allocation, team nursing and functional nursing) are outlined and discussed, and recent MOC literature reviewed. The paper suggests that, given the ways work is being rapidly reconfigured in healthcare services and the pressures on the nursing workforce projected into the future, team nursing seems to offer the best solutions.

  4. Applied welfare economics with discrete choice models: implications of theory for empirical specification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Batley, Richard; Ibáñez Rivas, Juan Nicolás

    2013-01-01

    in economics. Whilst some researchers were quick to see its practical potential (e.g. McFadden, 1968, 1975), it was not until the late 1970s and early 1980s that RUM was equipped with a reasonably comprehensive theoretical rationale in terms of the economics of consumption. An important tenet of this rationale......The apparatus of the Random Utility Model (RUM) first emerged in the early 1960s, with Marschak (1960) and Block and Marschak (1960) translating models originally developed for discriminant analysis in psychophysics (Thurstone, 1927) to the alternative domain of discrete choice analysis...

  5. A model of the impact of reimbursement schemes on health plan choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keeler, E B; Carter, G; Newhouse, J P

    1998-06-01

    Flat capitation (uniform prospective payments) makes enrolling healthy enrollees profitable to health plans. Plans with relatively generous benefits may attract the sick and fail through a premium spiral. We simulate a model of idealized managed competition to explore the effect on market performance of alternatives to flat capitation such as severity-adjusted capitation and reduced supply-side cost-sharing. In our model flat capitation causes severe market problems. Severity adjustment and to a lesser extent reduced supply-side cost-sharing improve market performance, but outcomes are efficient only in cases in which people bear the marginal costs of their choices.

  6. FEATURES OF ELECTRIC MOTOR CHOICE FOR NUCLEAR POWER PLANT TECHNOLOGICAL OBJECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.V. Shevchenko

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Nuclear power plants remain the basic power generating enterprises for Ukraine. Execution of works on their reliability control and operating conditions optimization is therefore of current importance. Trouble-free nuclear power plant operation is a vital technical, economical, and ecological problem, a solution to which is largely specified by reliable operation of electric equipment, namely, electric motors of nuclear power plant technological process drives.

  7. Global warming and energy technology choices: An approach to weighing the alternatives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DeGroat, K.J.

    1991-01-01

    Responses to global warming must be fashioned in the face of great uncertainty as to the actual costs and benefits of the actions. Yet the possible consequences of inaction are so great that policy makers are having to move ahead on the basis of science's incomplete knowledge of the true impacts of global warming. Energy technology is a key component of any response becauseof fossil fuels' dominant role in generating the gases that are the cause of the greenhouse effect. This paper presents an approach to analyzing CO 2 emissions from both fossil fuel and alternative energy technologies on a basis that normalizes emissions as a function of useful power output over the life of a generating technology, and over its entire fuel cycle. A scenario for analyzing wood-fired electricity generation from a short-rotation wood plantation is developed in detail to illustrate the application of the approach to assessing the CO 2 impact of biomass energy. The paper concludes that wood energy supplied by a short-rotation woody plantation not only balances the emissions during the operation of the generating plant, but also sequesters CO 2 in the 'infrastructure' of growing biomass that remains on the plantation after harvesting. The paper finishes with a caution that this analysis tends to highlight only the environmental issues involved in technology selection; economics, technical feasibility and important technical parameters are intentionally simplified in order to focus attention on emissions and power output. However, if used properly this approach does provide useful inputs for policy makers concerned with integrating environmental concerns into energy decisions

  8. Business Model Discovery by Technology Entrepreneurs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven Muegge

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Value creation and value capture are central to technology entrepreneurship. The ways in which a particular firm creates and captures value are the foundation of that firm's business model, which is an explanation of how the business delivers value to a set of customers at attractive profits. Despite the deep conceptual link between business models and technology entrepreneurship, little is known about the processes by which technology entrepreneurs produce successful business models. This article makes three contributions to partially address this knowledge gap. First, it argues that business model discovery by technology entrepreneurs can be, and often should be, disciplined by both intention and structure. Second, it provides a tool for disciplined business model discovery that includes an actionable process and a worksheet for describing a business model in a form that is both concise and explicit. Third, it shares preliminary results and lessons learned from six technology entrepreneurs applying a disciplined process to strengthen or reinvent the business models of their own nascent technology businesses.

  9. Clean coal technology choices relating to the future supply and demand of electricity in Southern Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lennon, S.J.

    1997-01-01

    The finalization of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has catalysed a high degree of debate and interest in the future of coal-fired power generation. Fossil fuel combustion is responsible for a significant percentage of pollutants emitted globally, and coal will continue to play a major role in the energy portfolios of many countries. This is particularly true for developing countries. This fact has resulted in a major focus on technologies which improve the efficiency of coal combustion and conversion to electrical energy, as well as technologies which directly of indirectly reduce overall emissions. The issues around clean coal technologies (CCT) and their evolution, development and uptake in both developed and developing countries are complex. This paper addresses these issues in a Southern African context, viewed from the policy perspective of developing countries and presented in a framework of electricity supply and demand considerations in the region. The principal climate change policy elements proposed for South Africa are presented in the context of the current electricity supply and demand situation in the region. These are presented in the context of Eskom's Integrated Electricity Planning (IEP) process including the environmental considerations inherent in decision-making processes. The potential future of the CCT, barriers to their introduction and potential measures to facilitate their accelerated adoption are discussed. (author). 4 refs., 5 tabs., 2 figs

  10. A hybrid discrete choice model to assess the effect of awareness and attitude towards environmentally friendly travel modes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sottile, Eleonora; Meloni, Italo; Cherchi, Elisabetta

    2015-01-01

    The need to reduce private vehicle use has led to the development of soft measures aimed at re-educating car users through information processes that raise their awareness regarding the benefits of environmentally friendly modes, encouraging them to voluntarily change their mode choice behaviour......&R) instead of their car, we estimated a hybrid mode choice model....

  11. Local structural properties and attribute characteristisc in 2-mode networks: p* models to map choices of theater events

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Agneessens, F.; Roose, H.

    2008-01-01

    Choices of plays made by theatergoers can be considered as a 2-mode or affiliation network. In this article we illustrate how p* models (an exponential family of distributions for random graphs) can be used to uncover patterns of choices. Based on audience research in three theater institutions in

  12. Utility-free heuristic models of two-option choice can mimic predictions of utility-stage models under many conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piantadosi, Steven T.; Hayden, Benjamin Y.

    2015-01-01

    Economists often model choices as if decision-makers assign each option a scalar value variable, known as utility, and then select the option with the highest utility. It remains unclear whether as-if utility models describe real mental and neural steps in choice. Although choices alone cannot prove the existence of a utility stage, utility transformations are often taken to provide the most parsimonious or psychologically plausible explanation for choice data. Here, we show that it is possible to mathematically transform a large set of common utility-stage two-option choice models (specifically ones in which dimensions are can be decomposed into additive functions) into a heuristic model (specifically, a dimensional prioritization heuristic) that has no utility computation stage. We then show that under a range of plausible assumptions, both classes of model predict similar neural responses. These results highlight the difficulties in using neuroeconomic data to infer the existence of a value stage in choice. PMID:25914613

  13. PRATICE CRAWL – MENTAL DISTABILITIES: ADULT CHOICE OF DRIVE TECHNOLOGY ADAPTED COMPETITORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dominique Redon

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Of the two schools most stressed about the act of propelling the crawl, crawl in practice, which is the most efficient swimming, the two modes of propulsion favorites are "The outstretched arm" next to the called swimmer paddling and "The arm bent S-shaped" under the so-called swimmer impeller (N. Lanotte, S. Lem, 2012 The debate is not yet settled (Potdevin F; Pelayo P. 2006. Any swimmer has a strategy for managing its own resources considering the cost / benefit of each stroke technique report, with the aim of improving strength (Arellano, R. (1992, its movement and hence its performance (Joshua, 1992 in retarded placed in individual practice crawl competition, open to different technical conditions, what is the movement that is most often practiced, according to "the outstretched arm" or "folded S-shaped arm "under the swimmer? Methods: We record video (Pk Chollet - 2003, during two Regional championships in France adapted swim organized by the French Federation of Adapted Sport tests crawl in Division 1 Division 2 and Division 3 according to the latest regulations for implementation first time. We question the choice: "The outstretched arm" or "arm bent S-shaped" under the swimmer, by interviews (Y.Meynaud; Duclos D.1996 professional supervisors or volunteers before tests their competitors and we competitors are questioning after their trials. Results: It appears on the video that all competitors swim the "arms outstretched" The point of view of professional or volunteer supervisors: no of them are not asked for the choice of method of propulsion is best for their competitors as they say swimming techniques they teach in their club are the same as for all disabled or not competitors. The point of view of competitors: For competitors the method of propulsion "outstretched arm" seems to them the most effective. Method "arm S" Their demand coordination of movement more difficult to obtain in the context of mental disability

  14. BUSINESS MODEL PATTERNS FOR DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES

    OpenAIRE

    BENJAMIN AMSHOFF; CHRISTIAN DÜLME; JULIAN ECHTERFELD; JÜRGEN GAUSEMEIER

    2015-01-01

    Companies nowadays face a myriad of business opportunities as a direct consequence of manifold disruptive technology developments. As a basic characteristic, disruptive technologies lead to a severe shift in value-creation networks giving rise to new market segments. One of the key challenges is to anticipate the business logics within these nascent and formerly unknown markets. Business model patterns promise to tackle this challenge. They can be interpreted as proven business model elements...

  15. Comparison of Four Control Methods for a Five-Choice Assistive Technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sebastian Halder

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Severe motor impairments can affect the ability to communicate. The ability to see has a decisive influence on the augmentative and alternative communication (AAC systems available to the user. To better understand the initial impressions users have of AAC systems we asked naïve healthy participants to compare two visual (a visual P300 brain-computer interface (BCI and an eye-tracker and two non-visual systems (an auditory and a tactile P300 BCI. Eleven healthy participants performed 20 selections in a five choice task with each system. The visual P300 BCI used face stimuli, the auditory P300 BCI used Japanese Hiragana syllables and the tactile P300 BCI used a stimulator on the small left finger, middle left finger, right thumb, middle right finger and small right finger. The eye-tracker required a dwell time of 3 s on the target for selection. We calculated accuracies and information-transfer rates (ITRs for each control method using the selection time that yielded the highest ITR and an accuracy above 70% for each system. Accuracies of 88% were achieved with the visual P300 BCI (4.8 s selection time, 20.9 bits/min, of 70% with the auditory BCI (19.9 s, 3.3 bits/min, of 71% with the tactile BCI (18 s, 3.4 bits/min and of 100% with the eye-tracker (5.1 s, 28.2 bits/min. Performance between eye-tracker and visual BCI correlated strongly, correlation between tactile and auditory BCI performance was lower. Our data showed no advantage for either non-visual system in terms of ITR but a lower correlation of performance which suggests that choosing the system which suits a particular user is of higher importance for non-visual systems than visual systems.

  16. Research on choice of xanthates blend dedicated to processing technology at KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. concentrators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pawlos Witold

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A proper choice of reagents quality and quantity has a great influence on the flotation process effectiveness. Attempts to develop a method to create sodium xanthates blends used as a collector for copper sulphides flotation was undertaken at the Division of Concentrators of KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. Laboratory tests involving different blends of sodium xanthates were performed followed by the data analysis of the results. The obtained results proved that it was profitable to prepare a blend consisted of the so called “weak” and “strong” xanthates with a minimum difference in the alkyl chain length of two carbon atoms. The results of research will be helpful for development of specific xanthates blends dedicated to technology applied at KGHM under industrial conditions.

  17. A Day-to-Day Route Choice Model Based on Reinforcement Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fangfang Wei

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Day-to-day traffic dynamics are generated by individual traveler’s route choice and route adjustment behaviors, which are appropriate to be researched by using agent-based model and learning theory. In this paper, we propose a day-to-day route choice model based on reinforcement learning and multiagent simulation. Travelers’ memory, learning rate, and experience cognition are taken into account. Then the model is verified and analyzed. Results show that the network flow can converge to user equilibrium (UE if travelers can remember all the travel time they have experienced, but which is not necessarily the case under limited memory; learning rate can strengthen the flow fluctuation, but memory leads to the contrary side; moreover, high learning rate results in the cyclical oscillation during the process of flow evolution. Finally, both the scenarios of link capacity degradation and random link capacity are used to illustrate the model’s applications. Analyses and applications of our model demonstrate the model is reasonable and useful for studying the day-to-day traffic dynamics.

  18. Discrete-Choice Modeling Of Non-Working Women’s Trip-Chaining Activity Based

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayati, Amelia; Pradono; Purboyo, Heru; Maryati, Sri

    2018-05-01

    Start The urban developments of technology and economics are now changing the lifestyles of the urban societies. It is also changing their travel demand to meet their movement needs. Nowadays, urban women, especially in Bandung, West Java, have a high demand for their daily travel and tend to increase. They have the ease of accessibility to personal modes of transportation and freedom to go anywhere to meet their personal and family needs. This also happens to non-working women or as housewives in the city of Bandung. More than 50% of women’s mobility is outside the home, in the term of trip-chaining, from leaving to returning home in one day. It is based on their complex activities in order to meet the needs of family and home care. While less than 60% of male’s mobility is outdoors, it is a simple trip-chaining or only has a single trip. The trip-chaining has significant differences between non-working women and working-men. This illustrates the pattern of Mom and Dad’s mobility in a family with an activity-based approach for the same purpose, i.e. family welfare. This study explains how complex the trip-chaining of non-working urban women and as housewives, with an activity-based approach done outdoors in a week. Socio-economic and household demographic variables serve as the basis for measuring the independent variables affecting family welfare, as well as the variables of type, time and duration of activities performed by unemployed housewives. This study aims to examine the interrelationships between activity variables, especially the time of activity and travel, and socio-economic of household variables that can generate the complexity of women’s daily travel. Discrete Choice Modeling developed by Ben-Akiva, Chandra Bhat, etc., is used in this study to illustrate the relationship between activity and socio-economic demographic variables based on primary survey data in Bandung, West Java for 466 unemployed housewives. The results of the regression, by

  19. Sensitivity of simulated regional Arctic climate to the choice of coupled model domain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dmitry V. Sein

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The climate over the Arctic has undergone changes in recent decades. In order to evaluate the coupled response of the Arctic system to external and internal forcing, our study focuses on the estimation of regional climate variability and its dependence on large-scale atmospheric and regional ocean circulations. A global ocean–sea ice model with regionally high horizontal resolution is coupled to an atmospheric regional model and global terrestrial hydrology model. This way of coupling divides the global ocean model setup into two different domains: one coupled, where the ocean and the atmosphere are interacting, and one uncoupled, where the ocean model is driven by prescribed atmospheric forcing and runs in a so-called stand-alone mode. Therefore, selecting a specific area for the regional atmosphere implies that the ocean–atmosphere system can develop ‘freely’ in that area, whereas for the rest of the global ocean, the circulation is driven by prescribed atmospheric forcing without any feedbacks. Five different coupled setups are chosen for ensemble simulations. The choice of the coupled domains was done to estimate the influences of the Subtropical Atlantic, Eurasian and North Pacific regions on northern North Atlantic and Arctic climate. Our simulations show that the regional coupled ocean–atmosphere model is sensitive to the choice of the modelled area. The different model configurations reproduce differently both the mean climate and its variability. Only two out of five model setups were able to reproduce the Arctic climate as observed under recent climate conditions (ERA-40 Reanalysis. Evidence is found that the main source of uncertainty for Arctic climate variability and its predictability is the North Pacific. The prescription of North Pacific conditions in the regional model leads to significant correlation with observations, even if the whole North Atlantic is within the coupled model domain. However, the inclusion of the

  20. Using technology, choosing sex. The campaign against sex determination and the question of choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1992-01-01

    Women's groups and people's science and health groups formed the Forum Against Sex Determination and Sex Pre-Selection in November 1985 in Bombay, India, to prevent sex determination and sex preselection tests. The Forum considered sex determination and sex preselection to be an abuse of science and technology against people, especially women. Between 1901 and 1991, the sex ratio fell from 972 females/1000 males to 929/1000. The Forum saw the issue of sex determination and sex preselection as a link to oppression of and discrimination against females in all sectors of society. It also believed this to be a human rights issue. The Forum lobbied for a law regulating diagnostic techniques without banning them, since determining chromosomal abnormalities is important. The State of Maharashtra passed such a law in June 1988. It had some provisions which were counter-productive, however. For example, women undergoing a sex determination test must pay a fine of Rs 5 if found guilty of planning to terminate a pregnancy of a female fetus. Yet, neither the husband nor parents-in-law are liable, even though they often pressure women to undergo sex determination tests. The Forum's efforts and enactment of the law in Maharashtra have prompted other state governments and the central government to propose similar legislation. These state governments include Goa, Gujarat, and Orissa. The central government has met with organizations and individuals lobbying against misuse of diagnostic tests to obtain their counsel. The Forum does not feel comfortable with state control, however, since it tends to consider government to be against the people. Yet, the Forum did want the state to protect women's interests. It has raised important questions about technology, particularly concerning criteria to determine desirable and appropriate technologies.

  1. Improving the representation of modal choice into bottom-up optimization energy system models - The MoCho-TIMES model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tattini, Jacopo; Ramea, Kalai; Gargiulo, Maurizio

    2018-01-01

    and mathematical expressions required to develop the approach. This study develops MoCho-TIMES in the standalone transportation sector of TIMES-DK, the integrated energy system model for Denmark. The model is tested for the Business as Usual scenario and for four alternative scenarios that imply diverse......This study presents MoCho-TIMES, an original methodology for incorporating modal choice into energy-economy-environment-engineering (E4) system models. MoCho-TIMES addresses the scarce ability of E4 models to realistically depict behaviour in transport and allows for modal shift towards transit...

  2. A Joint Modeling Analysis of Passengers’ Intercity Travel Destination and Mode Choices in Yangtze River Delta Megaregion of China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanli Wang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Joint destination-mode travel choice models are developed for intercity long-distance travel among sixteen cities in Yangtze River Delta Megaregion of China. The model is developed for all the trips in the sample and also by two different trip purposes, work-related business and personal business trips, to accommodate different time values and attraction factors. A nested logit modeling framework is applied to model trip destination and mode choices in two different levels, where the lower level is a mode choice model and the upper level is a destination choice model. The utility values from various travel modes in the lower level are summarized into a composite utility, which is then specified into the destination choice model as an intercity impedance factor. The model is then applied to predict the change in passenger number from Shanghai to Yangzhou between scenarios with and without high-speed rail service to demonstrate the applicability. It is helpful for understanding and modeling megaregional travel destination and mode choice behaviors in the context of developing country.

  3. Socio-demographic characteristics affecting sport tourism choices: A structural model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nataša Slak Valek

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Effective tourism management in the field of sports tourism requires an understanding of differences in socioeconomic characteristics both within and between different market segments. Objective: In the broad tourism market demographic characteristics have been extensively analyzed for differences in destination choices, however little is known about demographic factors affecting sport tourists' decisions. Methods: A sample of Slovenian sports tourists was analyzed using data from a comprehensive survey of local and outbound tourist activity conducted by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia in 2008. After data weighting the information for 353,783 sports related trips were available for analysis. The research model adopted suggests that four socio-demographic characteristics (gender, age, level of education and income significantly affect a tourist's choice of sports related travel either locally within Slovenia or to a foreign country. Furthermore the destination (local or foreign has an influence on the choice of the type of accommodation selected and the tourist's total expenditure for the trip. For testing the first part of our model (the socio-demographic characteristics effects a linear regression was used, and for the final part of the model (the selection of accommodation type and travel expenditure t-test were applied. Results: The result shows the standardized β regression coefficients are all statistically significant at the .001 level for the tested socio-demographic characteristics and also the overall regression model was statistically significant at .001 level. Conclusions: With these results the study confirmed that all the selected socio-demographic characteristics have a significant influence on the sport-active tourist when choosing between a domestic and foreign tourism destination which in turn affect the type of accommodation chosen and the level of expenditure while travelling.

  4. A joint model of mode and shipment size choice using the first generation of Commodity Flow Survey Public Use Microdata

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monique Stinson

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available A behavior-based supply chain and freight transportation model was developed and implemented for the Maricopa Association of Governments (MAG and Pima Association of Governments (PAG. This innovative, data-driven modeling system simulates commodity flows to, from and within Phoenix and Tucson Megaregion and is used for regional planning purposes. This paper details the logistics choice component of the system and describes the position and functioning of this component in the overall framework. The logistics choice model uses a nested logit formulation to evaluate mode choice and shipment size jointly. Modeling decisions related to integrating this component within the overall framework are discussed. This paper also describes practical insights gained from using the 2012 Commodity Flow Survey Public Use Microdata (released in 2015, which was the principal data source used to estimate the joint shipment size-mode choice nested logit model. Finally, the validation effort and related lessons learned are described.

  5. Impact of implementation choices on quantitative predictions of cell-based computational models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kursawe, Jochen; Baker, Ruth E.; Fletcher, Alexander G.

    2017-09-01

    'Cell-based' models provide a powerful computational tool for studying the mechanisms underlying the growth and dynamics of biological tissues in health and disease. An increasing amount of quantitative data with cellular resolution has paved the way for the quantitative parameterisation and validation of such models. However, the numerical implementation of cell-based models remains challenging, and little work has been done to understand to what extent implementation choices may influence model predictions. Here, we consider the numerical implementation of a popular class of cell-based models called vertex models, which are often used to study epithelial tissues. In two-dimensional vertex models, a tissue is approximated as a tessellation of polygons and the vertices of these polygons move due to mechanical forces originating from the cells. Such models have been used extensively to study the mechanical regulation of tissue topology in the literature. Here, we analyse how the model predictions may be affected by numerical parameters, such as the size of the time step, and non-physical model parameters, such as length thresholds for cell rearrangement. We find that vertex positions and summary statistics are sensitive to several of these implementation parameters. For example, the predicted tissue size decreases with decreasing cell cycle durations, and cell rearrangement may be suppressed by large time steps. These findings are counter-intuitive and illustrate that model predictions need to be thoroughly analysed and implementation details carefully considered when applying cell-based computational models in a quantitative setting.

  6. Model Driven Engineering with Ontology Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staab, Steffen; Walter, Tobias; Gröner, Gerd; Parreiras, Fernando Silva

    Ontologies constitute formal models of some aspect of the world that may be used for drawing interesting logical conclusions even for large models. Software models capture relevant characteristics of a software artifact to be developed, yet, most often these software models have limited formal semantics, or the underlying (often graphical) software language varies from case to case in a way that makes it hard if not impossible to fix its semantics. In this contribution, we survey the use of ontology technologies for software modeling in order to carry over advantages from ontology technologies to the software modeling domain. It will turn out that ontology-based metamodels constitute a core means for exploiting expressive ontology reasoning in the software modeling domain while remaining flexible enough to accommodate varying needs of software modelers.

  7. Design and Operationalization of Technological Business Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Jabłoński

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The mechanisms of the network paradigm increasingly affecting the operation of companies form a new dimension of strategic management today. This applies also to the look at the design and operationalization of business models. Business models that become a source of competitive advantage in the market should have such a configuration that will provide the company with the capability to develop and grow in value. Innovation in particular determines this capability, which is the basis for the ability to create technologically new products and services. An interesting issue, not fully examined yet, is defining the principles of the design and operationalization of such business models in which technology determines their efficiency and effectiveness. These models may be technological business models. The aim of this paper is to discuss the important areas related to the design and operationalization of technological business models in the network environment and to present conclusions that are the basis for further research in this area. The author argues that in today’s, increasingly virtual reality effective and efficient tools for generating new value proposition for customers is the skillful design and use of technological business models developed by companies’ participation in the network environment. It is materialized in the form of achieving superior business results by the company.

  8. The choice of a biological model in assessing internal dose equivalent

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parodo, A.; Erre, N.

    1977-01-01

    Many are the biological models related to kinetic behavior of radioactive materials within the organism, or in an organ. This is true particularly for the metabolic kinetics of bone-seekers radionuclides described differently by various authors: as a consequence, different forms of the retention function have been used in calculating internal dose equivalent. In our opinion, the retention functions expressed as linear combinations of exponential terms with negative exponents are preferable. In fact, they can be obtained by coherent compartmental analysis and allow a mathematical formalism fairly well definite and easily adaptable to computers. Moreover, it is possible to make use of graphs and monograms already published. The role of the biological model in internal dosimetry, referred to the reliability of the quantitative informations on the kinetic behavior of the radionuclides in the organism and, therefrom, to the accuracy of the doses calculated, is discussed. By comparing the results obtained with different biological models, one finds that the choice of a model is less important than the choice of the value of the appropriate parameters

  9. Technological choice and change in the Southwest Bath in the Athenian Agora

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Artz, James

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available During its five architectural phases, the Southwest bath in the Athenian Agora changes from a Greek-style bath into a Roman-style bath. This article will focus on the first two phases, when Roman elements begin to be incorporated into the traditional forms of Greek bath architecture – particularly, a hypocaust floor system and a concrete vaulted ceiling built into a traditional Greek tholos bath. After describing these architectural features and analyzing the techniques used in their construction, I will examine possible sources of influence on the design and construction of the Southwest baths. The Roman army, citizenry, and workmen could all have potentially affected the incorporation of Roman bathing technologies and building techniques into the Southwest bath. The available evidence, however, indicates that the most likely source of influence is Roman workmen, who were employed in large numbers for the numerous building projects underway in Augustan Athens.

  10. Bayesian Poisson hierarchical models for crash data analysis: Investigating the impact of model choice on site-specific predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khazraee, S Hadi; Johnson, Valen; Lord, Dominique

    2018-08-01

    The Poisson-gamma (PG) and Poisson-lognormal (PLN) regression models are among the most popular means for motor vehicle crash data analysis. Both models belong to the Poisson-hierarchical family of models. While numerous studies have compared the overall performance of alternative Bayesian Poisson-hierarchical models, little research has addressed the impact of model choice on the expected crash frequency prediction at individual sites. This paper sought to examine whether there are any trends among candidate models predictions e.g., that an alternative model's prediction for sites with certain conditions tends to be higher (or lower) than that from another model. In addition to the PG and PLN models, this research formulated a new member of the Poisson-hierarchical family of models: the Poisson-inverse gamma (PIGam). Three field datasets (from Texas, Michigan and Indiana) covering a wide range of over-dispersion characteristics were selected for analysis. This study demonstrated that the model choice can be critical when the calibrated models are used for prediction at new sites, especially when the data are highly over-dispersed. For all three datasets, the PIGam model would predict higher expected crash frequencies than would the PLN and PG models, in order, indicating a clear link between the models predictions and the shape of their mixing distributions (i.e., gamma, lognormal, and inverse gamma, respectively). The thicker tail of the PIGam and PLN models (in order) may provide an advantage when the data are highly over-dispersed. The analysis results also illustrated a major deficiency of the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) in comparing the goodness-of-fit of hierarchical models; models with drastically different set of coefficients (and thus predictions for new sites) may yield similar DIC values, because the DIC only accounts for the parameters in the lowest (observation) level of the hierarchy and ignores the higher levels (regression coefficients

  11. Integrated Mode Choice, Small Aircraft Demand, and Airport Operations Model User's Guide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yackovetsky, Robert E. (Technical Monitor); Dollyhigh, Samuel M.

    2004-01-01

    A mode choice model that generates on-demand air travel forecasts at a set of GA airports based on changes in economic characteristics, vehicle performance characteristics such as speed and cost, and demographic trends has been integrated with a model to generate itinerate aircraft operations by airplane category at a set of 3227 airports. Numerous intermediate outputs can be generated, such as the number of additional trips diverted from automobiles and schedule air by the improved performance and cost of on-demand air vehicles. The total number of transported passenger miles that are diverted is also available. From these results the number of new aircraft to service the increased demand can be calculated. Output from the models discussed is in the format to generate the origin and destination traffic flow between the 3227 airports based on solutions to a gravity model.

  12. MATERIAL CHOICE AND BLANKS OPERATION TECHNOLOGY OF AK6 ALUMINIUM ALLOY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. YE. Kalinina

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. Justification of the material and heat treatment method of aluminum alloy for the manufacturing of parts, type «plate» based on the results of microstructure and mechanical properties research; development of technological process of blanks operation of AK6 aluminum alloy. Methodology. Powdered alloy based on aluminum type AK6 was the research material. Finished forgings with the size 2520×1520×65 mm were obtained as a result of the preparation and forging of the blanks. After mechanical treatment of the blanks they were exposed to thermal processing and milling. Structure of the metal was examined under light microscope MIM-8M. Brinell hardness was used as the strength alloy characteristic. Findings. Influence analysis of alloy elements on the structure of deformable aluminum alloys was carried out. Research of influence of heat treatment modes on structure and properties of the AK6 alloy were performed. The improved technological process, which made it possible to obtain the item with the improved structure and properties and lower costs is offered. Originality. The samples of AK6 powdered alloy on fire resistance were tested. It is established that under heating of an example in the oxidative flame, it does not ignite to a temperature of 705 °C. The cause of high fire resistance of AK6 alloy samples was found, it is connected with the presence in the material the evenly distributed, small oxide inclusions and amorphous oxide film on the surface. Practical value. Hard conditions of work (corrosion in marine and industrial atmosphere, static and shock loads, cyclic temperature allow the use of the item in various designs.

  13. WRF model sensitivity to choice of parameterization: a study of the `York Flood 1999'

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remesan, Renji; Bellerby, Tim; Holman, Ian; Frostick, Lynne

    2015-10-01

    Numerical weather modelling has gained considerable attention in the field of hydrology especially in un-gauged catchments and in conjunction with distributed models. As a consequence, the accuracy with which these models represent precipitation, sub-grid-scale processes and exceptional events has become of considerable concern to the hydrological community. This paper presents sensitivity analyses for the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model with respect to the choice of physical parameterization schemes (both cumulus parameterisation (CPSs) and microphysics parameterization schemes (MPSs)) used to represent the `1999 York Flood' event, which occurred over North Yorkshire, UK, 1st-14th March 1999. The study assessed four CPSs (Kain-Fritsch (KF2), Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ), Grell-Devenyi ensemble (GD) and the old Kain-Fritsch (KF1)) and four MPSs (Kessler, Lin et al., WRF single-moment 3-class (WSM3) and WRF single-moment 5-class (WSM5)] with respect to their influence on modelled rainfall. The study suggests that the BMJ scheme may be a better cumulus parameterization choice for the study region, giving a consistently better performance than other three CPSs, though there are suggestions of underestimation. The WSM3 was identified as the best MPSs and a combined WSM3/BMJ model setup produced realistic estimates of precipitation quantities for this exceptional flood event. This study analysed spatial variability in WRF performance through categorical indices, including POD, FBI, FAR and CSI during York Flood 1999 under various model settings. Moreover, the WRF model was good at predicting high-intensity rare events over the Yorkshire region, suggesting it has potential for operational use.

  14. Characterizing emerging industrial technologies in energy models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laitner, John A. (Skip); Worrell, Ernst; Galitsky, Christina; Hanson, Donald A.

    2003-07-29

    Conservation supply curves are a common tool in economic analysis. As such, they provide an important opportunity to include a non-linear representation of technology and technological change in economy-wide models. Because supply curves are closely related to production isoquants, we explore the possibility of using bottom-up technology assessments to inform top-down representations of energy models of the U.S. economy. Based on a recent report by LBNL and ACEEE on emerging industrial technologies within the United States, we have constructed a supply curve for 54 such technologies for the year 2015. Each of the selected technologies has been assessed with respect to energy efficiency characteristics, likely energy savings by 2015, economics, and environmental performance, as well as needs for further development or implementation of the technology. The technical potential for primary energy savings of the 54 identified technologies is equal to 3.54 Quads, or 8.4 percent of the assume d2015 industrial energy consumption. Based on the supply curve, assuming a discount rate of 15 percent and 2015 prices as forecasted in the Annual Energy Outlook2002, we estimate the economic potential to be 2.66 Quads - or 6.3 percent of the assumed forecast consumption for 2015. In addition, we further estimate how much these industrial technologies might contribute to standard reference case projections, and how much additional energy savings might be available assuming a different mix of policies and incentives. Finally, we review the prospects for integrating the findings of this and similar studies into standard economic models. Although further work needs to be completed to provide the necessary link between supply curves and production isoquants, it is hoped that this link will be a useful starting point for discussion with developers of energy-economic models.

  15. A comparison of methods for representing random taste heterogeneity in discrete choice models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; Hess, Stephane

    2009-01-01

    This paper reports the findings of a systematic study using Monte Carlo experiments and a real dataset aimed at comparing the performance of various ways of specifying random taste heterogeneity in a discrete choice model. Specifically, the analysis compares the performance of two recent advanced...... distributions. Both approaches allow the researcher to increase the number of parameters as desired. The paper provides a range of evidence on the ability of the various approaches to recover various distributions from data. The two advanced approaches are comparable in terms of the likelihoods achieved...

  16. Calibration of a joint time assignment and mode choice model system

    OpenAIRE

    Greeven, Paulina; Jara-Diaz, Sergio R.; Munizaga, Marcela A.; Axhausen, Kay W.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we report the results of applying a new microeconomic framework to model time assignment to activities, goods consumption and mode choice jointly (Jara-Díaz and Guevara, 2003; Jara-Díaz and Guerra, 2003) that identifies the links between these decisions and permits the calculation of all the components of the subjective value of time defined in the literature: the value of time as a resource, value of assigning time to a specific activity and the value of saving time in a specif...

  17. Models in cooperative game theory crisp, fuzzy, and multi-choice games

    CERN Document Server

    Branzei, Rodica; Tijs, Stef

    2005-01-01

    This book investigates models in cooperative game theory in which the players have the possibility to cooperate partially. In a crisp game the agents are either fully involved or not involved at all in coperation with some other agents, while in a fuzzy game players are allowed to cooperate with infinite many different participation levels, varying from non-cooperation to full cooperation. A multi-choice game describes the intermediate case in which each player may have a fixed number of activity levels. Different set and one-point solution concepts for these games are presented. The propertie

  18. Modeling bistable cell-fate choices in the Drosophila eye: qualitative and quantitative perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, Thomas G. W.; Tabei, S. M. Ali; Dinner, Aaron R.; Rebay, Ilaria

    2010-01-01

    A major goal of developmental biology is to understand the molecular mechanisms whereby genetic signaling networks establish and maintain distinct cell types within multicellular organisms. Here, we review cell-fate decisions in the developing eye of Drosophila melanogaster and the experimental results that have revealed the topology of the underlying signaling circuitries. We then propose that switch-like network motifs based on positive feedback play a central role in cell-fate choice, and discuss how mathematical modeling can be used to understand and predict the bistable or multistable behavior of such networks. PMID:20570936

  19. The Role of Preference Axioms and Respondent Behaviour in Statistical Models for Discrete Choice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hougaard, Jens Leth; Tjur, Tue; Østerdal, Lars Peter

    Discrete choice experiments are widely used in relation to healthcare. A stream of recent literature therefore aims at testing the validityof the underlying preference axioms of completeness and transitivity,and detecting other preference phenomena such as unstability, learn-ing/tiredness effects......, ordering effects, dominance, etc. Unfortunatelythere seems to be some confusion about what is actually being tested,and the link between the statistical tests performed and the relevantunderlying model of respondent behaviour has not been explored inthis literature. The present paper tries to clarify...

  20. Constructing Quality Adjusted Price Indexes: a Comparison of Hedonic and Discrete Choice Models

    OpenAIRE

    N. Jonker

    2001-01-01

    The Boskin report (1996) concluded that the US consumer price index (CPI) overestimated the inflation by 1.1 percentage points. This was due to several measurement errors in the CPI. One of them is called quality change bias. In this paper two methods are compared which can be used to eliminate quality change bias, namely the hedonic method and a method based on the use of discrete choice models. The underlying micro-economic fundations of the two methods are compared as well as their empiric...

  1. Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Filipe, Joaquim; Kacprzyk, Janusz; Pina, Nuno

    2014-01-01

    This book includes extended and revised versions of a set of selected papers from the 2012 International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications (SIMULTECH 2012) which was sponsored by the Institute for Systems and Technologies of Information, Control and Communication (INSTICC) and held in Rome, Italy. SIMULTECH 2012 was technically co-sponsored by the Society for Modeling & Simulation International (SCS), GDR I3, Lionphant Simulation, Simulation Team and IFIP and held in cooperation with AIS Special Interest Group of Modeling and Simulation (AIS SIGMAS) and the Movimento Italiano Modellazione e Simulazione (MIMOS).

  2. Importance of the habitat choice behavior assumed when modeling the effects of food and temperature on fish populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wildhaber, Mark L.; Lamberson, Peter J.

    2004-01-01

    Various mechanisms of habitat choice in fishes based on food and/or temperature have been proposed: optimal foraging for food alone; behavioral thermoregulation for temperature alone; and behavioral energetics and discounted matching for food and temperature combined. Along with development of habitat choice mechanisms, there has been a major push to develop and apply to fish populations individual-based models that incorporate various forms of these mechanisms. However, it is not known how the wide variation in observed and hypothesized mechanisms of fish habitat choice could alter fish population predictions (e.g. growth, size distributions, etc.). We used spatially explicit, individual-based modeling to compare predicted fish populations using different submodels of patch choice behavior under various food and temperature distributions. We compared predicted growth, temperature experience, food consumption, and final spatial distribution using the different models. Our results demonstrated that the habitat choice mechanism assumed in fish population modeling simulations was critical to predictions of fish distribution and growth rates. Hence, resource managers who use modeling results to predict fish population trends should be very aware of and understand the underlying patch choice mechanisms used in their models to assure that those mechanisms correctly represent the fish populations being modeled.

  3. MODELS OF TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION: AN INTEGRATIVE APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrei OGREZEANU

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The interdisciplinary study of information technology adoption has developed rapidly over the last 30 years. Various theoretical models have been developed and applied such as: the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM, Innovation Diffusion Theory (IDT, Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB, etc. The result of these many years of research is thousands of contributions to the field, which, however, remain highly fragmented. This paper develops a theoretical model of technology adoption by integrating major theories in the field: primarily IDT, TAM, and TPB. To do so while avoiding mess, an approach that goes back to basics in independent variable type’s development is proposed; emphasizing: 1 the logic of classification, and 2 psychological mechanisms behind variable types. Once developed these types are then populated with variables originating in empirical research. Conclusions are developed on which types are underpopulated and present potential for future research. I end with a set of methodological recommendations for future application of the model.

  4. Investigating attribute non-attendance and its consequences in choice experiments with latent class models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagarde, Mylene

    2013-05-01

    A growing literature, mainly from transport and environment economics, has started to explore whether respondents violate some of the axioms about individuals' preferences in Discrete Choice Experiments (DCEs) and use simple strategies to make their choices. One of these strategies, termed attribute non-attendance (ANA), consists in ignoring one or more attributes. Using data from a DCE administered to healthcare providers in Ghana to evaluate their potential resistance to changes in clinical guidelines, this study illustrates how latent class models can be used in a step-wise approach to account for all possible ANA strategies used by respondents and explore the consequences of such behaviours. Results show that less than 3% of respondents considered all attributes when choosing between the two hypothetical scenarios proposed, with a majority looking at only one or two attributes. Accounting for ANA strategies improved the goodness-of-fit of the model and affected the magnitude of some of the coefficient and willingness-to-pay estimates. However, there was no difference in the predicted probabilities of the model taking into account ANA and the standard approach. Although the latter result is reassuring about the ability of DCEs to produce unbiased policy guidance, it should be confirmed by other studies. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  5. The effects of nutrition labeling on consumer food choice: a psychological experiment and computational model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helfer, Peter; Shultz, Thomas R

    2014-12-01

    The widespread availability of calorie-dense food is believed to be a contributing cause of an epidemic of obesity and associated diseases throughout the world. One possible countermeasure is to empower consumers to make healthier food choices with useful nutrition labeling. An important part of this endeavor is to determine the usability of existing and proposed labeling schemes. Here, we report an experiment on how four different labeling schemes affect the speed and nutritional value of food choices. We then apply decision field theory, a leading computational model of human decision making, to simulate the experimental results. The psychology experiment shows that quantitative, single-attribute labeling schemes have greater usability than multiattribute and binary ones, and that they remain effective under moderate time pressure. The computational model simulates these psychological results and provides explanatory insights into them. This work shows how experimental psychology and computational modeling can contribute to the evaluation and improvement of nutrition-labeling schemes. © 2014 New York Academy of Sciences.

  6. System approach to modeling of industrial technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toropov, V. S.; Toropov, E. S.

    2018-03-01

    The authors presented a system of methods for modeling and improving industrial technologies. The system consists of information and software. The information part is structured information about industrial technologies. The structure has its template. The template has several essential categories used to improve the technological process and eliminate weaknesses in the process chain. The base category is the physical effect that takes place when the technical process proceeds. The programming part of the system can apply various methods of creative search to the content stored in the information part of the system. These methods pay particular attention to energy transformations in the technological process. The system application will allow us to systematize the approach to improving technologies and obtaining new technical solutions.

  7. Taking dietary habits into account: A computational method for modeling food choices that goes beyond price.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beheshti, Rahmatollah; Jones-Smith, Jessica C; Igusa, Takeru

    2017-01-01

    Computational models have gained popularity as a predictive tool for assessing proposed policy changes affecting dietary choice. Specifically, they have been used for modeling dietary changes in response to economic interventions, such as price and income changes. Herein, we present a novel addition to this type of model by incorporating habitual behaviors that drive individuals to maintain or conform to prior eating patterns. We examine our method in a simulated case study of food choice behaviors of low-income adults in the US. We use data from several national datasets, including the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the USDA, to parameterize our model and develop predictive capabilities in 1) quantifying the influence of prior diet preferences when food budgets are increased and 2) simulating the income elasticities of demand for four food categories. Food budgets can increase because of greater affordability (due to food aid and other nutritional assistance programs), or because of higher income. Our model predictions indicate that low-income adults consume unhealthy diets when they have highly constrained budgets, but that even after budget constraints are relaxed, these unhealthy eating behaviors are maintained. Specifically, diets in this population, before and after changes in food budgets, are characterized by relatively low consumption of fruits and vegetables and high consumption of fat. The model results for income elasticities also show almost no change in consumption of fruit and fat in response to changes in income, which is in agreement with data from the World Bank's International Comparison Program (ICP). Hence, the proposed method can be used in assessing the influences of habitual dietary patterns on the effectiveness of food policies.

  8. Taking dietary habits into account: A computational method for modeling food choices that goes beyond price.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahmatollah Beheshti

    Full Text Available Computational models have gained popularity as a predictive tool for assessing proposed policy changes affecting dietary choice. Specifically, they have been used for modeling dietary changes in response to economic interventions, such as price and income changes. Herein, we present a novel addition to this type of model by incorporating habitual behaviors that drive individuals to maintain or conform to prior eating patterns. We examine our method in a simulated case study of food choice behaviors of low-income adults in the US. We use data from several national datasets, including the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the USDA, to parameterize our model and develop predictive capabilities in 1 quantifying the influence of prior diet preferences when food budgets are increased and 2 simulating the income elasticities of demand for four food categories. Food budgets can increase because of greater affordability (due to food aid and other nutritional assistance programs, or because of higher income. Our model predictions indicate that low-income adults consume unhealthy diets when they have highly constrained budgets, but that even after budget constraints are relaxed, these unhealthy eating behaviors are maintained. Specifically, diets in this population, before and after changes in food budgets, are characterized by relatively low consumption of fruits and vegetables and high consumption of fat. The model results for income elasticities also show almost no change in consumption of fruit and fat in response to changes in income, which is in agreement with data from the World Bank's International Comparison Program (ICP. Hence, the proposed method can be used in assessing the influences of habitual dietary patterns on the effectiveness of food policies.

  9. How does technology pathway choice influence economic viability and environmental impacts of lignocellulosic biorefineries?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajendran, Karthik; Murthy, Ganti S

    2017-01-01

    The need for liquid fuels in the transportation sector is increasing, and it is essential to develop industrially sustainable processes that simultaneously address the tri-fold sustainability metrics of technological feasibility, economic viability, and environmental impacts. Biorefineries based on lignocellulosic feedstocks could yield high-value products such as ethyl acetate, dodecane, ethylene, and hexane. This work focuses on assessing biochemical and biomass to electricity platforms for conversion of Banagrass and Energycane into valuable fuels and chemicals using the tri-fold sustainability metrics. The production cost of various products produced from Banagrass was $1.19/kg ethanol, $1.00/kg ethyl acetate, $3.01/kg dodecane (jet fuel equivalent), $2.34/kg ethylene and $0.32/kW-h electricity. The production cost of different products using Energycane as a feedstock was $1.31/kg ethanol, $1.11/kg ethyl acetate, $3.35/kg dodecane, and $2.62/kg ethylene. The sensitivity analysis revealed that the price of the main product, feedstock cost and cost of ethanol affected the profitability the overall process. Banagrass yielded 11% higher ethanol compared to Energycane, which could be attributed to the differences in the composition of these lignocellulosic biomass sources. Acidification potential was highest when ethylene was produced at the rate of 2.56 × 10 -2 and 1.71 × 10 -2 kg SO 2 eq. for Banagrass and Energycane, respectively. Ethanol production from Banagrass and Energycane resulted in a global warming potential of - 12.3 and - 40.0 g CO 2  eq./kg ethanol. Utilizing hexoses and pentoses from Banagrass to produce ethyl acetate was the most economical scenario with a payback period of 11.2 years and an ROI of 8.93%, respectively. Electricity production was the most unprofitable scenario with an ROI of - 29.6% using Banagrass/Energycane as a feedstock that could be attributed to high feedstock moisture content. Producing ethylene or dodecane from

  10. Model complexity and choice of model approaches for practical simulations of CO2 injection, migration, leakage and long-term fate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Celia, Michael A. [Princeton Univ., NJ (United States)

    2016-12-30

    This report documents the accomplishments achieved during the project titled “Model complexity and choice of model approaches for practical simulations of CO2 injection,migration, leakage and long-term fate” funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Fossil Energy. The objective of the project was to investigate modeling approaches of various levels of complexity relevant to geologic carbon storage (GCS) modeling with the goal to establish guidelines on choice of modeling approach.

  11. Flying personal planes: modeling the airport choices of general aviation pilots using stated preference methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camasso, M J; Jagannathan, R

    2001-01-01

    This study employed stated preference (SP) models to determine why general aviation pilots choose to base and operate their aircraft at some airports and not others. Thirteen decision variables identified in pilot focus groups and in the general aviation literature were incorporated into a series of hypothetical choice tasks or scenarios. The scenarios were offered within a fractional factorial design to establish orthogonality and to preclude dominance in any combination of variables. Data from 113 pilots were analyzed for individual differences across pilots using conditional logit regression with and without controls. The results demonstrate that some airport attributes (e.g., full-range hospitality services, paved parallel taxiway, and specific types of runway lighting and landing aids) increase pilot utility. Heavy airport congestion and airport landing fees, on the other hand, decrease pilot utility. The importance of SP methodology as a vehicle for modeling choice behavior and as an input into the planning and prioritization process is discussed. Actual or potential applications include the development of structured decision-making instruments in the behavioral sciences and in human service programs.

  12. Model of traffic access mode and railway station choice of suburban railway system in Slovenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregor RAK

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This article presents the establishment of a model of understanding the access mode and railway station choice of Slovenian passengers. Therefore, a model has been designed to predict the determination of existing decision making preferences of railway users about the access mode and railway station choice with a stated preference survey and face to face method. The target group in the survey were railway passengers in the suburban environment that use the rail for work and school purposes. The total number of respondents was 412. The survey showed that most passengers access the railway station with car (60,2%, by foot (26,2%, with public transport (bus – 8,3% and with bike (5,3%. Average distance to the station is 4,9 km, average time of access is 10,5 min. Upon exit most passengers walk to the final destination (84,5%, use the public transport (bus – 14,1%, car (1,2% or bike (0,2%. Average time from exit of the train to final destination is 13,1 min, average distance is 1,58 km.

  13. Women's career choices in chemistry: Motivations, perceptions, and a conceptual model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grunert, Megan L.

    Statistics showing the under-representation of women at all levels within the physical sciences abound, particularly at the graduate and faculty levels. Women chemists choosing an academic career tend to select teaching institutions over research institutions. This study examined women at the graduate and faculty levels through interviews and the construction of participant narratives to better understand why many women opt out of a career in academic research. Specific attention was paid to women's decision-making processes and what motivates women to choose careers, the rewards and challenges associated with different careers, and the perception of different careers contribute to their decisions. The participant narratives were analyzed on a cross-case basis and constructivist grounded theory was used to develop a model about women's decision-making regarding their careers. Additionally, preliminary work has suggested that graduate students have inaccurate perceptions of careers in academia. Interviews with faculty at teaching and research institutions provided a clearer picture of what each type of career entails. Career-choice motivators, rewards, and challenges were identified for each of the faculty groups. It was found that graduate student women have inaccurate perceptions of academic research careers, which affects how they make career decisions. A model of career choice shows interactions between motivation and perception that guide the career decision-making process. By better understanding these women and their motivations, changes can be made to foster inclusion and accommodation for women and other underrepresented groups in academic chemistry.

  14. The unified model of vegetarian identity: A conceptual framework for understanding plant-based food choices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenfeld, Daniel L; Burrow, Anthony L

    2017-05-01

    By departing from social norms regarding food behaviors, vegetarians acquire membership in a distinct social group and can develop a salient vegetarian identity. However, vegetarian identities are diverse, multidimensional, and unique to each individual. Much research has identified fundamental psychological aspects of vegetarianism, and an identity framework that unifies these findings into common constructs and conceptually defines variables is needed. Integrating psychological theories of identity with research on food choices and vegetarianism, this paper proposes a conceptual model for studying vegetarianism: The Unified Model of Vegetarian Identity (UMVI). The UMVI encompasses ten dimensions-organized into three levels (contextual, internalized, and externalized)-that capture the role of vegetarianism in an individual's self-concept. Contextual dimensions situate vegetarianism within contexts; internalized dimensions outline self-evaluations; and externalized dimensions describe enactments of identity through behavior. Together, these dimensions form a coherent vegetarian identity, characterizing one's thoughts, feelings, and behaviors regarding being vegetarian. By unifying dimensions that capture psychological constructs universally, the UMVI can prevent discrepancies in operationalization, capture the inherent diversity of vegetarian identities, and enable future research to generate greater insight into how people understand themselves and their food choices. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Data analysis and approximate models model choice, location-scale, analysis of variance, nonparametric regression and image analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Davies, Patrick Laurie

    2014-01-01

    Introduction IntroductionApproximate Models Notation Two Modes of Statistical AnalysisTowards One Mode of Analysis Approximation, Randomness, Chaos, Determinism ApproximationA Concept of Approximation Approximation Approximating a Data Set by a Model Approximation Regions Functionals and EquivarianceRegularization and Optimality Metrics and DiscrepanciesStrong and Weak Topologies On Being (almost) Honest Simulations and Tables Degree of Approximation and p-values ScalesStability of Analysis The Choice of En(α, P) Independence Procedures, Approximation and VaguenessDiscrete Models The Empirical Density Metrics and Discrepancies The Total Variation Metric The Kullback-Leibler and Chi-Squared Discrepancies The Po(λ) ModelThe b(k, p) and nb(k, p) Models The Flying Bomb Data The Student Study Times Data OutliersOutliers, Data Analysis and Models Breakdown Points and Equivariance Identifying Outliers and Breakdown Outliers in Multivariate Data Outliers in Linear Regression Outliers in Structured Data The Location...

  16. Capacity Expansion Modeling for Storage Technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hale, Elaine; Stoll, Brady; Mai, Trieu

    2017-04-03

    The Resource Planning Model (RPM) is a capacity expansion model designed for regional power systems and high levels of renewable generation. Recent extensions capture value-stacking for storage technologies, including batteries and concentrating solar power with storage. After estimating per-unit capacity value and curtailment reduction potential, RPM co-optimizes investment decisions and reduced-form dispatch, accounting for planning reserves; energy value, including arbitrage and curtailment reduction; and three types of operating reserves. Multiple technology cost scenarios are analyzed to determine level of deployment in the Western Interconnection under various conditions.

  17. Does a peer model's task proficiency influence children's solution choice and innovation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Lara A; Kendal, Rachel L; Flynn, Emma G

    2015-11-01

    The current study investigated whether 4- to 6-year-old children's task solution choice was influenced by the past proficiency of familiar peer models and the children's personal prior task experience. Peer past proficiency was established through behavioral assessments of interactions with novel tasks alongside peer and teacher predictions of each child's proficiency. Based on these assessments, one peer model with high past proficiency and one age-, sex-, dominance-, and popularity-matched peer model with lower past proficiency were trained to remove a capsule using alternative solutions from a three-solution artificial fruit task. Video demonstrations of the models were shown to children after they had either a personal successful interaction or no interaction with the task. In general, there was not a strong bias toward the high past-proficiency model, perhaps due to a motivation to acquire multiple methods and the salience of other transmission biases. However, there was some evidence of a model-based past-proficiency bias; when the high past-proficiency peer matched the participants' original solution, there was increased use of that solution, whereas if the high past-proficiency peer demonstrated an alternative solution, there was increased use of the alternative social solution and novel solutions. Thus, model proficiency influenced innovation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. On the choice of statistical models for estimating occurrence and extinction from animal surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorazio, R.M.

    2007-01-01

    In surveys of natural animal populations the number of animals that are present and available to be detected at a sample location is often low, resulting in few or no detections. Low detection frequencies are especially common in surveys of imperiled species; however, the choice of sampling method and protocol also may influence the size of the population that is vulnerable to detection. In these circumstances, probabilities of animal occurrence and extinction will generally be estimated more accurately if the models used in data analysis account for differences in abundance among sample locations and for the dependence between site-specific abundance and detection. Simulation experiments are used to illustrate conditions wherein these types of models can be expected to outperform alternative estimators of population site occupancy and extinction. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

  19. A customer-centric approach towards evaluating single-choice information technology service provision to the parastatal sector of South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MC Cant

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The article presents a case study whereby the service performance of a single-choice information technology service provider in the parastatal industry of South Africa is measured against multi-choice private service providers without any provisional agreements.  The outcome of the case study reveals that single-choice service provision options with provisional agreements have a limited chance of success if they are not supported by strong service user inputs.  In fact, provisional strategies that disallow sound competition among service providers are bound to impact negatively on user preferences as well as information technology skills development opportunities that  are required to improve service provision generally and long-term survival in particular.

  20. Choice of technological regimes of a blast furnace operation with injection of hot reducing gases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Babich, A. I.

    2002-08-01

    Full Text Available Injection rate of fossil fuels is limited because of drop in the flame temperature in the raceway and problems in the deadman region and the cohesive zone. The next step for obtaining a considerable coke saving, a better operation in the deadman as an well as increase in blast furnace productivity and minimizing the environmental impact due to a decrease in carbon dioxide emmision would be injection by tuyeres of hot reducing gases (HRG which are produced by low grade coal gasification or top gas regenerating. Use of HRG in combination with high pulverized coal inyection PCI rate and oxigen enrichment in the blast could allow to keep and to increase the competitiveness of the blast furnace process. Calculations using a mathematical model show that the HRG injection in combination with pulverized coal (PC and enriching blast with oxigen can provide an increase in PC rate up to 300-400 kg/tHM and a rise in the furnace productivity by 40-50 %. Blast furnace operation with full oxigen blast (100 % of process oxigen with the exception for the hot blast is possible when HRG is injected.

    La tasa de inyección de combustibles fósiles está limitada a causa de la caída de la temperatura de llama en el raceway (cavidad frente a las toberas y a problemas en la región del "hombre muerto" y en la zona cohesiva. La inyección por tobera de gases reductores calientes (GRC, que se producen por gasificación de carbón de bajo grado o generación de gas de tragante, será la próxima etapa para lograr un considerable ahorro adicional de coque, una zona del "hombre muerto" bien definida, además de un aumento en la productividad del horno alto y para minimizar el impacto ambiental debido a una disminución de la emisión de dióxido de carbono. El uso de GRC en combinación con una tasa elevada de inyección de carbón pulverizado (ICP con viento enriquecido en oxígeno, podrá permitir mantener y aumentar la competitividad del proceso del horno

  1. College Students' Choice Modeling of Taking On-Line International Business Courses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeh, Robert S.

    2006-01-01

    To understand students' choice behavior of taking on-line international business courses, a survey study is conducted to collect information regarding students' actual choices of taking on-line courses and potential factors that may have impacts on students' choices of online learning. Potential factors such as enrollment status, demographic…

  2. Impacts of wind power generation and CO{sub 2} emission constraints on the future choice of fuels and technologies in the power sector of Vietnam

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nguyen, K.Q. [Institute of Energy, Hanoi (Viet Nam)

    2007-04-15

    This paper examines the impacts of wind power generation on the future choice of fuels and technologies in the power sector of Vietnam. The study covers a time frame of 20 yr from 2005 to 2025 and the MARKAL model has been chosen to be adaptable to this specific task. The results of the study show that on a simple cost base, power generated from wind is not yet competitive with that of fossil fuel-based power plants. In order to make wind energy competitive, either carbon tax or an emission reduction target on the system must be imposed. The presence of wind power could affect not only the change in generation mix from coal-based power plants to wind turbines but also an increase in the capacity of other technologies which emit less carbon dioxide. It thus helps reduce fossil fuel requirement and consequently enhances energy security for the country. The study also shows that wind turbine in Vietnam could be a potential CDM project for annex I party countries. (author)

  3. A Bayesian Network Model on the Public Bicycle Choice Behavior of Residents: A Case Study of Xi’an

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiuping Wang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to study the main factors affecting the behaviors that city residents make regarding public bicycle choice and to further study the public bicycle user’s personal characteristics and travel characteristics, a travel mode choice model based on a Bayesian network was established. Taking residents of Xi’an as the research object, a K2 algorithm combined with mutual information and expert knowledge was proposed for Bayesian network structure learning. The Bayesian estimation method was used to estimate the parameters of the network, and a Bayesian network model was established to reflect the interactions among the public bicycle choice behaviors along with other major factors. The K-fold cross-validation method was used to validate the model performance, and the hit rate of each travel mode was more than 80%, indicating the precision of the proposed model. Experimental results also present the higher classification accuracy of the proposed model. Therefore, it may be concluded that the resident travel mode choice may be accurately predicted according to the Bayesian network model proposed in our study. Additionally, this model may be employed to analyze and discuss changes in the resident public bicycle choice and to note that they may possibly be influenced by different travelers’ characteristics and trip characteristics.

  4. Choice Overload, Satisficing Behavior, and Price Distribution in a Time Allocation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Álvarez

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent psychological research indicates that consumers that search exhaustively for the best option of a market product—known as maximizers—eventually feel worse than consumers who just look for something good enough—called satisficers. We formulate a time allocation model to explore the relationship between different distributions of prices of the product and the satisficing behavior and the related welfare of the consumer. We show numerically that, as the number of options becomes large, the maximizing behavior produces less and less welfare and eventually leads to choice paralysis—these are effects of choice overload—whereas satisficing conducts entail higher levels of satisfaction and do not end up in paralysis. For different price distributions, we provide consistent evidence that maximizers are better off for a low number of options, whereas satisficers are better off for a sufficiently large number of options. We also show how the optimal satisficing behavior is affected when the underlying price distribution varies. We provide evidence that the mean and the dispersion of a symmetric distribution of prices—but not the shape of the distribution—condition the satisficing behavior of consumers. We also show that this need not be the case for asymmetric distributions.

  5. A new model to understand the career choice and practice location decisions of medical graduates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stagg, P; Greenhill, J; Worley, P S

    2009-01-01

    places is influencing both urban- and rural-origin graduates to practise in urban locations. Further analysis of graduates' career pathway choices (rural or urban) and geographic background (rural or urban) was conducted. This resulted in the development of a new model, 'The Four Qs Model'. This model consists of four quadrants derived from the variables career pathway choice (rural or urban) and geographic background (rural or urban). Clustering of consistent demographic and qualitative trends unique to each quadrant was demonstrated. The distinctive clustering that emerged from the data resulted in the quadrants being renamed 'The True Believers', 'The Convertibles' 'The Frustrated' and 'The Metro Docs'. The PRCC is influencing graduates to choose a rural career path. The PRCC program affirms the career preferences of rural origin students while graduates with little rural exposure prior to the PRCC report being positively influenced to pursue a rural career path. The Four Qs Model is a useful model in that it demonstrates consistent themes in the characteristics of PRCC graduates and assists understanding of why they choose a rural medical career. This could be relevant to the selection of medical students into rural medical education programs and in the construction of rural curricula. The model also offers a useful framework for further research in this field.

  6. Technological diffusion in the Ramsey model

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Duczynski, Petr

    2002-01-01

    Roč. 1, č. 3 (2002), s. 243-250 ISSN 1607-0704 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z7085904 Keywords : neoclassical growth model * technological diffusion Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.ijbe.org/table%20of%20content/pdf/vol1-3/06.pdf

  7. Plans for modeling rational acceptance of technology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Houkes, W.N.; Pols, A.J.K.; Michelfelder, D.P.; McCarthy, N.; Goldberg, D.E.

    2013-01-01

    We argue that the use-plan analysis of artefact use and design can be combined with the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT), a well-tested model for predicting the adoption of information systems in organizational contexts. After presenting the outlines of the use-plan

  8. The Irrational Nature of Choice: A New Model for Advising Undecided Students?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertram, Robert M.

    1996-01-01

    Examines the dynamics of student decision making in the era of information technology. Presents and challenges long-established paradigms associated with decision making. Examines the roles of individual and societal epistemologies, and suggests a new model with a less rational approach that recognizes varied viewpoints and helps students think…

  9. Modeling the choice to switch from fuelwood to electricity. Implications for giant panda habitat conservation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    An, Li; Liu, Jianguo; Linderman, Marc A. [Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University, 13 Natural Resources Building, 48824 East Lansing, MI (United States); Lupi, Frank [Departments of Agricultural Economics and Fisheries and Wildlife, Michigan State University, 213F Agriculture Hall, 48824 East Lansing, MI (United States); Huang, Jinyan [Wolong Nature Reserve Administration, Wenchuan County, 623002 Sichuan Province (China)

    2002-09-01

    Despite its status as a nature reserve, Wolong Nature Reserve (China) has experienced continued loss of giant panda habitat due to human activities such as fuelwood collection. Electricity, though available throughout Wolong, has not replaced fuelwood as an energy source. We used stated preference data obtained from in-person interviews to estimate a random utility model of the choice of adopting electricity for cooking and heating. Willingness to switch to electricity was explained by demographic and electricity factors (price, voltage, and outage frequency). In addition to price, non-price factors such as voltage and outage frequency significantly affect the demand. Thus, lowering electricity prices and increasing electricity quality would encourage local residents to switch from fuelwood to electricity and should be considered in the mix of policies to promote conservation of panda habitat.

  10. Modeling the mental health service utilization decisions of university undergraduates: A discrete choice conjoint experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Charles E; Zipursky, Robert B; Christensen, Bruce K; Bieling, Peter J; Madsen, Victoria; Rimas, Heather; Mielko, Stephanie; Wilson, Fiona; Furimsky, Ivana; Jeffs, Lisa; Munn, Catharine

    2017-01-01

    We modeled design factors influencing the intent to use a university mental health service. Between November 2012 and October 2014, 909 undergraduates participated. Using a discrete choice experiment, participants chose between hypothetical campus mental health services. Latent class analysis identified three segments. A Psychological/Psychiatric Service segment (45.5%) was most likely to contact campus health services delivered by psychologists or psychiatrists. An Alternative Service segment (39.3%) preferred to talk to peer-counselors who had experienced mental health problems. A Hesitant segment (15.2%) reported greater distress but seemed less intent on seeking help. They preferred services delivered by psychologists or psychiatrists. Simulations predicted that, rather than waiting for standard counseling, the Alternative Service segment would prefer immediate access to E-Mental health. The Usual Care and Hesitant segments would wait 6 months for standard counseling. E-Mental Health options could engage students who may not wait for standard services.

  11. Functional forms and price elasticities in a discrete continuous choice model of the residential water demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vásquez Lavín, F. A.; Hernandez, J. I.; Ponce, R. D.; Orrego, S. A.

    2017-07-01

    During recent decades, water demand estimation has gained considerable attention from scholars. From an econometric perspective, the most used functional forms include log-log and linear specifications. Despite the advances in this field and the relevance for policymaking, little attention has been paid to the functional forms used in these estimations, and most authors have not provided justifications for their selection of functional forms. A discrete continuous choice model of the residential water demand is estimated using six functional forms (log-log, full-log, log-quadratic, semilog, linear, and Stone-Geary), and the expected consumption and price elasticity are evaluated. From a policy perspective, our results highlight the relevance of functional form selection for both the expected consumption and price elasticity.

  12. Physical microscopic free-choice model in the framework of a Darwinian approach to quantum mechanics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baladron, Carlos [Departamento de Fisica Teorica, Atomica y Optica, Universidad de Valladolid, E-47011, Valladolid (Spain)

    2017-06-15

    A compatibilistic model of free choice for a fundamental particle is built within a general framework that explores the possibility that quantum mechanics be the emergent result of generalised Darwinian evolution acting on the abstract landscape of possible physical theories. The central element in this approach is a probabilistic classical Turing machine -basically an information processor plus a randomiser- methodologically associated with every fundamental particle. In this scheme every system acts not under a general law, but as a consequence of the command of a particular, evolved algorithm. This evolved programme enables the particle to algorithmically anticipate possible future world configurations in information space, and as a consequence, without altering the natural forward causal order in physical space, to incorporate elements to the decision making procedure that are neither purely random nor strictly in the past, but in a possible future. (copyright 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim)

  13. A model of adolescents' seeking of sexual content in their media choices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bleakley, Amy; Hennessy, Michael; Fishbein, Martin

    2011-07-01

    This article reports on the extent to which adolescents report actively seeking sexual content in media, identifies from which media they report seeking, estimates the association between seeking sexual information and romantic and sexual behavior, and shows that active seeking of sexual content in media sources is explained by an intention to seek such content using the Integrative Model of Behavioral Prediction, a reasoned action approach. The data are a national sample of 810 adolescents aged 13 to 18 years. Results show that 50% of adolescents reported actively seeking sexual content in their media choices, which included movies, television, music, Internet pornography sites, and magazines. Males sought sex content more than females, and gender differences were greatest for seeking from Internet pornography sites, movies, and television. Path analysis demonstrate that seeking sexual content is well-predicted by intentions to seek, and intentions are primarily driven by perceived normative pressure to seek sexual content.

  14. Modeling the choice to switch from fuelwood to electricity. Implications for giant panda habitat conservation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An, Li; Liu, Jianguo; Linderman, Marc A.; Lupi, Frank; Huang, Jinyan

    2002-01-01

    Despite its status as a nature reserve, Wolong Nature Reserve (China) has experienced continued loss of giant panda habitat due to human activities such as fuelwood collection. Electricity, though available throughout Wolong, has not replaced fuelwood as an energy source. We used stated preference data obtained from in-person interviews to estimate a random utility model of the choice of adopting electricity for cooking and heating. Willingness to switch to electricity was explained by demographic and electricity factors (price, voltage, and outage frequency). In addition to price, non-price factors such as voltage and outage frequency significantly affect the demand. Thus, lowering electricity prices and increasing electricity quality would encourage local residents to switch from fuelwood to electricity and should be considered in the mix of policies to promote conservation of panda habitat

  15. Modeling the hospital safety partnership preferences of patients and their families: a discrete choice conjoint experiment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cunningham CE

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Charles E Cunningham,1 Tracy Hutchings,2 Jennifer Henderson,2 Heather Rimas,1 Yvonne Chen1 1Department of Psychiatry and Behavioural Neurosciences, Faculty of Health Sciences, Michael G DeGroote School of Medicine, McMaster University, 2Department of Quality and Performance, Hamilton Health Sciences, Hamilton, ON, Canada Background: Patients and their families play an important role in efforts to improve health service safety. Objective: The objective of this study is to understand the safety partnership preferences of patients and their families. Method: We used a discrete choice conjoint experiment to model the safety partnership preferences of 1,084 patients or those such as parents acting on their behalf. Participants made choices between hypothetical safety partnerships composed by experimentally varying 15 four-level partnership design attributes. Results: Participants preferred an approach to safety based on partnerships between patients and staff rather than a model delegating responsibility for safety to hospital staff. They valued the opportunity to participate in point of service safety partnerships, such as identity and medication double checks, that might afford an immediate risk reduction. Latent class analysis yielded two segments. Actively engaged participants (73.3% comprised outpatients with higher education, who anticipated more benefits to safety partnerships, were more confident in their ability to contribute, and were more intent on participating. They were more likely to prefer a personal engagement strategy, valued scientific evidence, preferred a more active approach to safety education, and advocated disclosure of errors. The passively engaged segment (26.7% anticipated fewer benefits, were less confident in their ability to contribute, and were less intent on participating. They were more likely to prefer an engagement strategy based on signage. They preferred that staff explain why they thought patients should help

  16. Parameters modelling of amaranth grain processing technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derkanosova, N. M.; Shelamova, S. A.; Ponomareva, I. N.; Shurshikova, G. V.; Vasilenko, O. A.

    2018-03-01

    The article presents a technique that allows calculating the structure of a multicomponent bakery mixture for the production of enriched products, taking into account the instability of nutrient content, and ensuring the fulfilment of technological requirements and, at the same time considering consumer preferences. The results of modelling and analysis of optimal solutions are given by the example of calculating the structure of a three-component mixture of wheat and rye flour with an enriching component, that is, whole-hulled amaranth flour applied to the technology of bread from a mixture of rye and wheat flour on a liquid leaven.

  17. Which Are My Future Career Priorities and What Influenced My Choice of Studying Science, Technology, Engineering or Mathematics? Some Insights on Educational Choice--Case of Slovenia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cerinsek, Gregor; Hribar, Tina; Glodez, Natasa; Dolinsek, Slavko

    2013-01-01

    This paper is addressing the problem of under-representation of young people in general, and females in particular, in the fields of science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) in Slovenia. It has two main objectives: (1) to identify which priorities male and female STEM students in Slovenia seek in their future careers, and (2) to…

  18. Choice Model and Influencing Factor Analysis of Travel Mode for Migrant Workers: Case Study in Xi’an, China

    OpenAIRE

    Hong Chen; Zuo-xian Gan; Yu-ting He

    2015-01-01

    Based on the basic theory and methods of disaggregate choice model, the influencing factors in travel mode choice for migrant workers are analyzed, according to 1366 data samples of Xi’an migrant workers. Walking, bus, subway, and taxi are taken as the alternative parts of travel modes for migrant workers, and a multinomial logit (MNL) model of travel mode for migrant workers is set up. The validity of the model is verified by the hit rate, and the hit rates of four travel modes are all great...

  19. NASA Chandra X-ray Observatory Selected as Editor's Choice in 2000 Discover Magazine Awards for Technological Innovation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2000-06-01

    The Chandra X-ray Observatory, NASA's newest and most powerful X-ray space telescope, has been selected as the winner of the Editor's Choice category of the 2000 Discover Magazine Awards for Technological Innovation. The team of government, industry, university and research institutions that designed, built and deployed Chandra for NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, Ala, will be formally recognized June 24 at a gala awards celebration at Epcot at the Walt Disney World Resort in Orlando, Fl. Dr. Harvey Tananbaum, director of the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory's Chandra X-ray Science Center, Cambridge, Mass., which conducts the Chandra science mission for NASA, will receive the award on behalf of the team. "Chandra has opened a new window for astronomers into the universe of high-energy cosmic events such as pulsars, supernova remnants and black holes," said Tananbaum. "We're now able to create spectacularly detailed images of celestial phenomena whose mere existence we could only hypothesize before." Among Chandra's most significant discoveries to date, he lists the detection of a giant ring around the heart of the Crab Nebula, details of the shock wave created by an exploding star and resolution of the high-energy X-ray "glow" in the universe into millions of specific light sources. "The successful launch, deployment and on-orbit operations of NASA's Chandra X-ray Observatory is a testament to the solid partnership between TRW, NASA and the science community that has been enabling NASA's most important space science missions for the past 40 years," said Timothy W. Hannemann, executive vice president and general manager, TRW Space & Electronics Group. "The extraordinary images that Chandra is delivering daily speaks loudly not only to the quality of the science instruments on board, but also to the engineering talents and dedication to mission success exhibited by every member of NASA's Chandra mission team." Chandra, named in honor of Nobel

  20. Factors Affecting the Choice of Professors as a Role Model from the Viewpoint of Medical Students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masome Rahimi

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The role of professors as a model can have a beneficial impact on the mental, psychological and educational conditions of medical students. This also plays an important role in improving professionalism and academic achievements among medical students. Therefore, the present study was aimed at evaluating the standpoint of students on factors influencing the selection of professors as a role model. This descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted on the students of different disciplines studying in Jahrom University of Medical Sciences in 2016. A randomized sampling method was conducted on 217 students. Their viewpoints were collected using a 30- question researcher-made questionnaire. The questionnaire consisted of three parts, each containing ten items. In addition, this questionnaire was distributed among 20 people (as a pilot survey, the alpha coefficient of which was equal to 0.88; and its measurement was based on Likert scale "from very low to very high". Data were analyzed using SPSS 18 and descriptive statistics. Most respondents were nursing students and the highest influence of professors as a role model was associated with their role as a research leader (future specialized courses in the clinical choices and selection of future specialized fields. The factors influencing the selection of professors as a role model included their respectful attitude toward students, and the high level of their knowledge and skills. On the other hand, the most important factors that caused professors not to be regarded as a role model included their inappropriate relationship with the students and refusing to listen to them. Role model professors can have a beneficial impact on the future of students and scientific communities, as far as the science and education is concerned. Therefore, it is necessary for professors to pay particular attention to strengthening their role as a model at universities.

  1. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of flood risk management decisions based on stationary and nonstationary model choices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rehan Balqis M.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Current practice in flood frequency analysis assumes that the stochastic properties of extreme floods follow that of stationary conditions. As human intervention and anthropogenic climate change influences in hydrometeorological variables are becoming evident in some places, there have been suggestions that nonstationary statistics would be better to represent the stochastic properties of the extreme floods. The probabilistic estimation of non-stationary models, however, is surrounded with uncertainty related to scarcity of observations and modelling complexities hence the difficulty to project the future condition. In the face of uncertain future and the subjectivity of model choices, this study attempts to demonstrate the practical implications of applying a nonstationary model and compares it with a stationary model in flood risk assessment. A fully integrated framework to simulate decision makers’ behaviour in flood frequency analysis is thereby developed. The framework is applied to hypothetical flood risk management decisions and the outcomes are compared with those of known underlying future conditions. Uncertainty of the economic performance of the risk-based decisions is assessed through Monte Carlo simulations. Sensitivity of the results is also tested by varying the possible magnitude of future changes. The application provides quantitative and qualitative comparative results that satisfy a preliminary analysis of whether the nonstationary model complexity should be applied to improve the economic performance of decisions. Results obtained from the case study shows that the relative differences of competing models for all considered possible future changes are small, suggesting that stationary assumptions are preferred to a shift to nonstationary statistics for practical application of flood risk management. Nevertheless, nonstationary assumption should also be considered during a planning stage in addition to stationary assumption

  2. Multiobjective constraints for climate model parameter choices: Pragmatic Pareto fronts in CESM1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langenbrunner, B.; Neelin, J. D.

    2017-09-01

    Global climate models (GCMs) are examples of high-dimensional input-output systems, where model output is a function of many variables, and an update in model physics commonly improves performance in one objective function (i.e., measure of model performance) at the expense of degrading another. Here concepts from multiobjective optimization in the engineering literature are used to investigate parameter sensitivity and optimization in the face of such trade-offs. A metamodeling technique called cut high-dimensional model representation (cut-HDMR) is leveraged in the context of multiobjective optimization to improve GCM simulation of the tropical Pacific climate, focusing on seasonal precipitation, column water vapor, and skin temperature. An evolutionary algorithm is used to solve for Pareto fronts, which are surfaces in objective function space along which trade-offs in GCM performance occur. This approach allows the modeler to visualize trade-offs quickly and identify the physics at play. In some cases, Pareto fronts are small, implying that trade-offs are minimal, optimal parameter value choices are more straightforward, and the GCM is well-functioning. In all cases considered here, the control run was found not to be Pareto-optimal (i.e., not on the front), highlighting an opportunity for model improvement through objectively informed parameter selection. Taylor diagrams illustrate that these improvements occur primarily in field magnitude, not spatial correlation, and they show that specific parameter updates can improve fields fundamental to tropical moist processes—namely precipitation and skin temperature—without significantly impacting others. These results provide an example of how basic elements of multiobjective optimization can facilitate pragmatic GCM tuning processes.

  3. Modeling duration choice in space–time multi-state supernetworks for individual activity-travel scheduling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liao, F.

    2016-01-01

    Multi-state supernetworks have been advanced recently for modeling individual activity-travel scheduling decisions. The main advantage is that multi-dimensional choice facets are modeled simultaneously within an integral framework, supporting systematic assessments of a large spectrum of policies

  4. Using metro smart card data to model location choice of after-work activities : an application to Shanghai

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang, Y.; Homem de Almeida Correia, G.; de Romph, E.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2017-01-01

    A location choice model explains how travellers choose their trip destinations especially for those activities which are flexible in space and time. The model is usually estimated using travel survey data; however, little is known about how to use smart card data (SCD) for this purpose in a public

  5. Using metro smart card data to model location choice of after-work activities: An application to Shanghai

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang, Y.; Correia, G.H.D.A.; Romph, E. de; Timmermans, H.J.P.H.

    2017-01-01

    A location choice model explains how travellers choose their trip destinations especially for those activities which are flexible in space and time. The model is usually estimated using travel survey data; however, little is known about how to use smart card data (SCD) for this purpose in a public

  6. Location choice in the context of multi-day activity-travel patterns : model development and empirical results

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arentze, T.A.; Ettema, D.F.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2013-01-01

    Multi-day activity-based models of travel demand are receiving increasing interest recently as successors of existing single-day activity-based models. In this article, we argue that predicting activity location choice-sets can no longer be ignored when multi-day time frames are adopted in these

  7. Patterns of Reinforcement and the Essential Value of Brands: II. Evaluation of a Model of Consumer Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Ji; Foxall, Gordon R.; Doyle, John R.

    2012-01-01

    We employ a behavioral-economic equation put forward by Hursh and Silberberg (2008) to explain human consumption behavior among substitutable food brands, applying a consumer-choice model--the behavioral perspective model (BPM; Foxall, 1990/2004, 2005). In this study, we apply the behavioral-economic equation to human economic consumption data. We…

  8. The Multiple-Choice Model: Some Solutions for Estimation of Parameters in the Presence of Omitted Responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abad, Francisco J.; Olea, Julio; Ponsoda, Vicente

    2009-01-01

    This article deals with some of the problems that have hindered the application of Samejima's and Thissen and Steinberg's multiple-choice models: (a) parameter estimation difficulties owing to the large number of parameters involved, (b) parameter identifiability problems in the Thissen and Steinberg model, and (c) their treatment of omitted…

  9. Combining spatial modeling and choice experiments for the optimal spatial allocation of wind turbines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drechsler, Martin; Ohl, Cornelia; Meyerhoff, Juergen; Eichhorn, Marcus; Monsees, Jan

    2011-01-01

    Although wind power is currently the most efficient source of renewable energy, the installation of wind turbines (WT) in landscapes often leads to conflicts in the affected communities. We propose that such conflicts can be mitigated by a welfare-optimal spatial allocation of WT in the landscape so that a given energy target is reached at minimum social costs. The energy target is motivated by the fact that wind power production is associated with relatively low CO 2 emissions. Social costs comprise energy production costs as well as external costs caused by harmful impacts on humans and biodiversity. We present a modeling approach that combines spatially explicit ecological-economic modeling and choice experiments to determine the welfare-optimal spatial allocation of WT in West Saxony, Germany. The welfare-optimal sites balance production and external costs. Results indicate that in the welfare-optimal allocation the external costs represent about 14% of the total costs (production costs plus external costs). Optimizing wind power production without consideration of the external costs would lead to a very different allocation of WT that would marginally reduce the production costs but strongly increase the external costs and thus lead to substantial welfare losses. - Highlights: → We combine modeling and economic valuation to optimally allocate wind turbines. → Welfare-optimal allocation balances energy production costs and external costs. → External costs (impacts on the environment) can be substantial. → Ignoring external costs leads to suboptimal allocations and welfare losses.

  10. Increasing reach by offering choices: Results from an innovative model for statewide services for smoking cessation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, Paula A; Schillo, Barbara A; Kerr, Amy N; Lien, Rebecca K; Saul, Jessie; Dreher, Marietta; Lachter, Randi B

    2016-10-01

    Although state quitlines provide free telephone counseling and often include nicotine replacement therapy (NRT), reach remains limited (1-2% in most states). More needs to be done to engage all smokers in the quitting process. A possible strategy is to offer choices of cessation services through quitlines and to reduce registration barriers. In March 2014, ClearWay Minnesota SM implemented a new model for QUITPLAN® Services, the state's population-wide cessation services. Tobacco users could choose the QUITPLAN® Helpline or one or more Individual QUITPLAN® Services (NRT starter kit, text messaging, email program, or quit guide). The program website was redesigned, online enrollment was added, and a new advertising campaign was created and launched. In 2014-2015, we evaluated whether these changes increased reach. We also assessed quit attempts, quit outcomes, predictors of 30-day abstinence, and average cost per quit via a seven-month follow-up survey. Between March 2014-February 2015, 15,861 unique tobacco users registered, which was a 169% increase over calendar year 2013. The majority of participants made a quit attempt (83.7%). Thirty-day point prevalence abstinence rates (responder rates) were 26.1% for QUITPLAN Services overall, 29.6% for the QUITPLAN Helpline, and 25.5% for Individual QUITPLAN Services. Several variables predicted quit outcomes, including receiving only one call from the Helpline and using both the Helpline and the NRT starter kit. Providing greater choice of cessation services and reducing registration barriers have the potential to engage more tobacco users, foster more quit attempts, and ultimately lead to long-term cessation and reductions in prevalence. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Product with service, technology with business model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sakao, Tomohiko; McAloone, Tim C.

    2011-01-01

    Looking back over the last decade, the importance of an expanded understanding of engineering design has been shared within the engineering design community. Presented concepts and methods to support such expansion include Functional Product Development, Service Engineering, and Product/Service-S...... promising concept beyond PSS design; via an integrated development of technology and business model. This can be of particular interest for further research, especially due to its high freedom for designers....

  12. Modelling Technology for Building Fire Scene with Virtual Geographic Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Y.; Zhao, L.; Wei, M.; Zhang, H.; Liu, W.

    2017-09-01

    Building fire is a risky activity that can lead to disaster and massive destruction. The management and disposal of building fire has always attracted much interest from researchers. Integrated Virtual Geographic Environment (VGE) is a good choice for building fire safety management and emergency decisions, in which a more real and rich fire process can be computed and obtained dynamically, and the results of fire simulations and analyses can be much more accurate as well. To modelling building fire scene with VGE, the application requirements and modelling objective of building fire scene were analysed in this paper. Then, the four core elements of modelling building fire scene (the building space environment, the fire event, the indoor Fire Extinguishing System (FES) and the indoor crowd) were implemented, and the relationship between the elements was discussed also. Finally, with the theory and framework of VGE, the technology of building fire scene system with VGE was designed within the data environment, the model environment, the expression environment, and the collaborative environment as well. The functions and key techniques in each environment are also analysed, which may provide a reference for further development and other research on VGE.

  13. A structural model of technology acceptance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Etienne Erasmus

    2015-04-01

    Research purpose: The aim of this study was to test the technology acceptance model within a South African SAP® Enterprise Resource Planning user environment. Motivation for the study: No study could be traced in which the technology acceptance model has been evaluated in the South African context. Research approach, design and method: A cross-sectional survey design was used. The 23-item Technology Acceptance Model Questionnaire was deployed amongst SAP® Enterprise Resource Planning users (N = 241. Main findings: The results confirmed significant paths from perceived usefulness of the information system to attitudes towards and behavioural intentions to use it. Furthermore, behavioural intention to use the system predicted actual use thereof. Perceived ease of use indirectly affected attitudes towards and behavioural intentions to use via perceived usefulness of the information system. Practical/managerial implications: Practitioners should build user confidence by ensuring the ease of use of a new system, providing relevant education, training and guidance and reiterating its usefulness and future added value to the user’s job and career. Contribution/value-add: This study contributes to scientific knowledge regarding the influence of individuals’ perceptions of information system usage on their attitudes, behavioural intentions and actual use of such a system.

  14. Modeling of processing technologies in food industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korotkov, V. G.; Sagitov, R. F.; Popov, V. P.; Bachirov, V. D.; Akhmadieva, Z. R.; TSirkaeva, E. A.

    2018-03-01

    Currently, the society is facing an urgent need to solve the problems of nutrition (products with increased nutrition value) and to develop energy-saving technologies for food products. A mathematical modeling of heat and mass transfer of polymer materials in the extruder is rather successful these days. Mathematical description of movement and heat exchange during extrusion of gluten-protein-starch-containing material similar to pasta dough in its structure, were taken as a framework for the mathematical model presented in this paper.

  15. Transition to large scale use of hydrogen and sustainable energy services. Choices of technology and infrastructure under path dependence, feedback and nonlinearity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gether, Kaare

    2004-07-01

    We live in a world of becoming. The future is not given, but forms continuously in dynamic processes where path dependence plays a major role. There are many different possible futures. What we actually end up with is determined in part by chance and in part by the decisions we make. To make sound decisions we require models that are flexible enough to identify opportunities and to help us choose options that lead to advantageous alternatives. This way of thinking differs from traditional cost-benefit analysis that employs net present value calculations to choose on purely economic grounds, without regard to future consequences. Time and dynamic behaviour introduce a separate perspective. There is a focus on change, and decisions acquire windows of opportunity: the right decision at the right time may lead to substantial change, while it will have little effect if too early or too late. Modelling needs to reflect this dynamic behaviour. It is the perspective of time and dynamics that leads to a focus on sustainability, and thereby the role hydrogen might play in a future energy system. The present work develops a particular understanding relevant to energy infrastructures. Central elements of this understanding are: competition, market preference and choice beyond costs, bounded rationality, uncertainty and risk, irreversibility, increasing returns, path dependence, feedback, delay, nonlinear behaviour. Change towards a ''hydrogen economy'' will involve far-reaching change away from our existing energy infrastructure. This infrastructure is viewed as a dynamic set of interacting technologies (value sequences) that provide services to end-users and uphold the required supply of energy for this, all the way from primary energy sources. The individual technologies also develop with time. Building on this understanding and analysis, an analytical tool has emerged: the Energy Infrastructure Competition (EICOMP) model. In the model each technology is

  16. Memory-Based Simple Heuristics as Attribute Substitution: Competitive Tests of Binary Choice Inference Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honda, Hidehito; Matsuka, Toshihiko; Ueda, Kazuhiro

    2017-01-01

    Some researchers on binary choice inference have argued that people make inferences based on simple heuristics, such as recognition, fluency, or familiarity. Others have argued that people make inferences based on available knowledge. To examine the boundary between heuristic and knowledge usage, we examine binary choice inference processes in…

  17. A linear programming model of diet choice of free-living beavers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nolet, BA; VanderVeer, PJ; Evers, EGJ; Ottenheim, MM

    1995-01-01

    Linear programming has been remarkably successful in predicting the diet choice of generalist herbivores. We used this technique to test the diet choice of free-living beavers (Castor fiber) in the Biesbosch (The Netherlands) under different Foraging goals, i.e. maximization of intake of energy,

  18. ENVIRONMENTAL TECHNOLOGY VERIFICATION REPORT LASER TOUCH AND TECHNOLOGIES, LLC LASER TOUCH MODEL LT-B512

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Environmental Technology Verification report discusses the technology and performance of Laser Touch model LT-B512 targeting device manufactured by Laser Touch and Technologies, LLC, for manual spray painting operations. The relative transfer efficiency (TE) improved an avera...

  19. Justification of marketing technologies choice for formation of favorable image of the territory with the interests of consumers (on the example of Primorsky Krai

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bacherikova M. L.

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available the article presents the rationale for marketing technologies choice to create a favorable image of the territory, taking into account the interests of consumers. Evaluation of marketing technologies influence on consumer behavior was carried out on the basis of correlation-regression analysis of indicators of perceived intensity of using specific marketing tools and technologies, and indicators characterizing territorial image, territorial product quality, resident consumers' satisfaction with territorial product, territorial product attractiveness for non-resident consumers, and consumers' loyalty to the territory. At each stage of favorable territorial image forming process based on marketing technologies, some marketing tools and technologies may be planned together for some consumer groups. The study revealed the possibility of involving consumers in the joint creation of value and formation of a favorable territorial image, which in turn will help to prevent and resolve conflicts of their interests, increase their satisfaction with the territorial product and their loyalty to the territory.

  20. Value of time determination for the city of Alexandria based on a disaggregate binary mode choice model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mounir Mahmoud Moghazy Abdel-Aal

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In the travel demand modeling field, mode choice is the most important decision that affects the resulted road congestion. The behavioral nature of the disaggregate models and the associated advantages of such models over aggregate models have led to their extensive use. This paper proposes a framework to determine the value of time (VoT for the city of Alexandria through calibrating a disaggregate linear-in parameter utility-based binary logit mode choice model of the city. The mode attributes (travel time and travel cost along with traveler attributes (car ownership and income were selected as the utility attributes of the basic model formulation which included 5 models. Three additional alternative utility formulations based on the transformation of the mode attributes including relative travel cost (cost divided by income and log (travel time and the combination of the two transformations together were introduced. The parameter estimation procedure was based on the likelihood maximization technique and was performed in EXCEL. Out of 20 models estimated, only 2 models are considered successful in terms of the parameters estimates correct signs and the magnitude of their significance (t-statistics value. The determination of the VoT serves also in the model validation. The best two models estimated the value of time at LE 11.30/hr and LE 14.50/hr with a relative error of +3.7% and +33.0%, respectively, of the hourly salary of LE 10.9/hr. The proposed two models prove to be sensitive to trip time and income levels as factors affecting the choice mechanism. The sensitivity analysis was performed and proved the model with higher relative error is marginally more robust. Keywords: Transportation modeling, Binary mode choice, Parameter estimation, Value of time, Likelihood maximization, Sensitivity analysis

  1. New Brunswick Market Design Committee : market design issues paper : choice of market model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    A model for the competitive electricity market in New Brunswick was not specified by the White Paper: New Brunswick Energy Policy, published in March 2001. One of the tasks of the Market Design Committee (MDC) is to select a market model for the province. This report was prepared with this objective in mind. It begins by providing a description of the basic functions that must be performed by any electricity system. Different market models will function differently, and a descriptions of how the functions would be performed under each model is presented. Considering the specific size and geographic location of New Brunswick, a number of actual markets that could be of interest are presented. The various electricity markets normally use one of four market models: vertically integrated monopoly utility, a competitive pool market, a bilateral contract market, and a single-buyer market. The first model was not explained as it represents the existing, non-competitive model whereby the government owns and/or regulates price and investment decision. The case where a market operator receives bids and offers from buyers and sellers and matches them to derive a price and schedule for the spot market is what is called the competitive pool market. When electricity trade takes place through a series of contracts between individual buyers and sellers, it is referred to as a bilateral contract market. Finally, the single-buyer market is defined as a monopoly where the buyer purchases from multiple sellers based on competition amongst them. Different examples are provided of applications of the three markets described in the paper. Both New England and New Zealand were chosen to better illustrate the concepts of a fully competitive pool-based market, as they either have close ties to New Brunswick, or share physical similarities. The single-buyer model is illustrated by the case of Northern Ireland where size is similar. The choices made in Quebec were described in the final

  2. Model Fitting for Predicted Precipitation in Darwin: Some Issues with Model Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmer, Jim

    2010-01-01

    In Volume 23(2) of the "Australian Senior Mathematics Journal," Boncek and Harden present an exercise in fitting a Markov chain model to rainfall data for Darwin Airport (Boncek & Harden, 2009). Days are subdivided into those with precipitation and precipitation-free days. The author abbreviates these labels to wet days and dry days.…

  3. Meal patterns, satiety, and food choice in a rat model of Roux-en-Y gastric bypass surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Huiyuan; Shin, Andrew C; Lenard, Natalie R; Townsend, R Leigh; Patterson, Laurel M; Sigalet, David L; Berthoud, Hans-Rudolf

    2009-11-01

    Gastric bypass surgery efficiently and lastingly reduces excess body weight and reverses type 2 diabetes in obese patients. Although increased energy expenditure may also play a role, decreased energy intake is thought to be the main reason for weight loss, but the mechanisms involved are poorly understood. Therefore, the aim of this study was to characterize the changes in ingestive behavior in a rat model of Roux-en-Y gastric bypass surgery (RYGB). Obese (24% body fat compared with 18% in chow-fed controls), male Sprague-Dawley rats maintained for 15 wk before and 4 mo after RYGB or sham-surgery on a two-choice low-fat/high-fat diet, were subjected to a series of tests assessing energy intake, meal patterning, and food choice. Although sham-operated rats gained an additional 100 g body wt during the postoperative period, RYGB rats lost approximately 100 g. Intake of a nutritionally complete and palatable liquid diet (Ensure) was significantly reduced by approximately 50% during the first 2 wk after RYGB compared with sham surgery. Decreased intake was the result of greatly reduced meal size with only partial compensation by meal frequency, and a corresponding increase in the satiety ratio. Similar results were obtained with solid food (regular or high-fat chow) 6 wk after surgery. In 12- to 24-h two-choice liquid or solid diet paradigms with nutritionally complete low- and high-fat diets, RYGB rats preferred the low-fat choice (solid) or showed decreased acceptance for the high-fat choice (liquid), whereas sham-operated rats preferred the high-fat choices. A separate group of rats offered chow only before surgery completely avoided the solid high-fat diet in a choice paradigm. The results confirm anecdotal reports of "nibbling" behavior and fat avoidance in RYGB patients and provide a basis for more mechanistic studies in this rat model.

  4. A Bayesian random effects discrete-choice model for resource selection: Population-level selection inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, D.L.; Johnson, D.; Griffith, B.

    2006-01-01

    Bayesian hierarchical discrete-choice model for resource selection can provide managers with 2 components of population-level inference: average population selection and variability of selection. Both components are necessary to make sound management decisions based on animal selection.

  5. Re-evaluating neonatal-age models for ungulates: does model choice affect survival estimates?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Troy W Grovenburg

    Full Text Available New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001-2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i

  6. An agent-based simulation model of patient choice of health care providers in accountable care organizations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alibrahim, Abdullah; Wu, Shinyi

    2018-03-01

    Accountable care organizations (ACO) in the United States show promise in controlling health care costs while preserving patients' choice of providers. Understanding the effects of patient choice is critical in novel payment and delivery models like ACO that depend on continuity of care and accountability. The financial, utilization, and behavioral implications associated with a patient's decision to forego local health care providers for more distant ones to access higher quality care remain unknown. To study this question, we used an agent-based simulation model of a health care market composed of providers able to form ACO serving patients and embedded it in a conditional logit decision model to examine patients capable of choosing their care providers. This simulation focuses on Medicare beneficiaries and their congestive heart failure (CHF) outcomes. We place the patient agents in an ACO delivery system model in which provider agents decide if they remain in an ACO and perform a quality improving CHF disease management intervention. Illustrative results show that allowing patients to choose their providers reduces the yearly payment per CHF patient by $320, reduces mortality rates by 0.12 percentage points and hospitalization rates by 0.44 percentage points, and marginally increases provider participation in ACO. This study demonstrates a model capable of quantifying the effects of patient choice in a theoretical ACO system and provides a potential tool for policymakers to understand implications of patient choice and assess potential policy controls.

  7. Multiphase flow models for hydraulic fracturing technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osiptsov, Andrei A.

    2017-10-01

    The technology of hydraulic fracturing of a hydrocarbon-bearing formation is based on pumping a fluid with particles into a well to create fractures in porous medium. After the end of pumping, the fractures filled with closely packed proppant particles create highly conductive channels for hydrocarbon flow from far-field reservoir to the well to surface. The design of the hydraulic fracturing treatment is carried out with a simulator. Those simulators are based on mathematical models, which need to be accurate and close to physical reality. The entire process of fracture placement and flowback/cleanup can be conventionally split into the following four stages: (i) quasi-steady state effectively single-phase suspension flow down the wellbore, (ii) particle transport in an open vertical fracture, (iii) displacement of fracturing fluid by hydrocarbons from the closed fracture filled with a random close pack of proppant particles, and, finally, (iv) highly transient gas-liquid flow in a well during cleanup. The stage (i) is relatively well described by the existing hydralics models, while the models for the other three stages of the process need revisiting and considerable improvement, which was the focus of the author’s research presented in this review paper. For stage (ii), we consider the derivation of a multi-fluid model for suspension flow in a narrow vertical hydraulic fracture at moderate Re on the scale of fracture height and length and also the migration of particles across the flow on the scale of fracture width. At the stage of fracture cleanaup (iii), a novel multi-continua model for suspension filtration is developed. To provide closure relationships for permeability of proppant packings to be used in this model, a 3D direct numerical simulation of single phase flow is carried out using the lattice-Boltzmann method. For wellbore cleanup (iv), we present a combined 1D model for highly-transient gas-liquid flow based on the combination of multi-fluid and

  8. A model technology transfer program for independent operators: Kansas Technology Transfer Model (KTTM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoeling, L.G.

    1993-09-01

    This report describes the development and testing of the Kansas Technology Transfer Model (KTTM) which is to be utilized as a regional model for the development of other technology transfer programs for independent operators throughout oil-producing regions in the US. It describes the linkage of the regional model with a proposed national technology transfer plan, an evaluation technique for improving and assessing the model, and the methodology which makes it adaptable on a regional basis. The report also describes management concepts helpful in managing a technology transfer program. The original Tertiary Oil Recovery Project (TORP) activities, upon which the KTTM is based, were developed and tested for Kansas and have proved to be effective in assisting independent operators in utilizing technology. Through joint activities of TORP and the Kansas Geological Survey (KGS), the KTTM was developed and documented for application in other oil-producing regions. During the course of developing this model, twelve documents describing the implementation of the KTTM were developed as deliverables to DOE. These include: (1) a problem identification (PI) manual describing the format and results of six PI workshops conducted in different areas of Kansas, (2) three technology workshop participant manuals on advanced waterflooding, reservoir description, and personal computer applications, (3) three technology workshop instructor manuals which provides instructor material for all three workshops, (4) three technologies were documented as demonstration projects which included reservoir management, permeability modification, and utilization of a liquid-level acoustic measuring device, (5) a bibliography of all literature utilized in the documents, and (6) a document which describes the KTTM.

  9. Parametric Cost and Schedule Modeling for Early Technology Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-04-02

    Research NoteNational Security Rep rt PARAMETRIC MODELING FOR EARLY TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT COST AND SCHEDULE Chuck...Alexander NSR_11x17_Cover_CostModeling_v8.indd 1 11/20/17 3:15 PM PARAMETRIC COST AND SCHEDULE MODELING FOR EARLY  TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT Chuck...COST AND SCHEDULE MODELING FOR EARLY  TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT iii Contents Figures

  10. Renewable energy systems the choice and modeling of 100% renewable solutions

    CERN Document Server

    Lund, Henrik

    2009-01-01

    How can society quickly convert to renewable energy? Can worldwide energy needs ever be met through 100% renewable sources? The answers to these questions rest largely on the perception of choice in the energy arena. It is of pivotal importance that engineers, researchers and policymakers understand what choices are available, and reasonable, when considering the design and deployment of new energy systems. The mission of this new book, written by one of the world's foremost experts in renewable power, is to arm these professionals with the tools and methodologies necessary to make smart choic

  11. Modeling mental health information preferences during the early adult years: a discrete choice conjoint experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Charles E; Walker, John R; Eastwood, John D; Westra, Henny; Rimas, Heather; Chen, Yvonne; Marcus, Madalyn; Swinson, Richard P; Bracken, Keyna; The Mobilizing Minds Research Group

    2014-04-01

    Although most young adults with mood and anxiety disorders do not seek treatment, those who are better informed about mental health problems are more likely to use services. The authors used conjoint analysis to model strategies for providing information about anxiety and depression to young adults. Participants (N = 1,035) completed 17 choice tasks presenting combinations of 15 four-level attributes of a mental health information strategy. Latent class analysis yielded 3 segments. The virtual segment (28.7%) preferred working independently on the Internet to obtain information recommended by young adults who had experienced anxiety or depression. Self-assessment options and links to service providers were more important to this segment. Conventional participants (30.1%) preferred books or pamphlets recommended by a doctor, endorsed by mental health professionals, and used with a doctor's support. They would devote more time to information acquisition but were less likely to use Internet social networking options. Brief sources of information were more important to the low interest segment (41.2%). All segments preferred information about alternative ways to reduce anxiety or depression rather than psychological approaches or medication. Maximizing the use of information requires active and passive approaches delivered through old-media (e.g., books) and new-media (e.g., Internet) channels.

  12. Analyzing Factors Influencing Teaching as a Career Choice Using Structural Equation Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Budhinath Padhy

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the study is to analyze factors influencing students’ perceptions of teaching as a career choice using structural equation modeling with the goal of shaping a teacher education recruitment program. In this study, 458 students from a Midwestern university in the United States responded to an online survey about career-related factors they value, their expectation that teaching would offer those factors, and any social-influence factors that might encourage them to choose a teaching career. The effect of 10 exogenous motivation variables (value-environment, value-intrinsic, value-extrinsic, value-altruistic, expectancy-environment, expectancy-intrinsic, expectancy-extrinsic, social-media-education, social-prior-experience, and social-suggestions on choosing a teaching career was examined. Results of our analysis showed that the factors related to expectancy-environment, expectancy-intrinsic, social-media-education, social-prior-experience, and social-suggestions were found to be significant, whereas value-related factors and expectancy-extrinsic factors were found to be insignificant.

  13. Exacerbations of COPD: quantifying the patient's perspective using discrete choice modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haughney, J; Partridge, M R; Vogelmeier, C; Larsson, T; Kessler, R; Ståhl, E; Brice, R; Löfdahl, C-G

    2005-10-01

    Patient-centred care is the current vogue in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), but it is only recently that robust techniques have become available to determine patients' values and preferences. In this international cross-sectional study, patients' concerns and expectations regarding COPD exacerbations were explored using discrete choice modelling. A fractional factorial design was used to develop scenarios comprising a combination of levels for nine different attributes. In face-to-face interviews, patients were presented with paired scenarios and asked to choose the least preferable. Multinomial logit (with hierarchical Bayes) methods were used to estimate utilities. A total of 125 patients (82 males; mean age 66 yrs; 4.6 mean exacerbations.yr-1) were recruited. The attributes of exacerbations considered most important were impact on everyday life (20%), need for medical care (16%), number of future attacks (12%) and breathlessness (11%). The next most important attributes were speed of recovery, productive cough and social impact (all 9%), followed by sleep disturbance and impact on mood (both 7%). Importantly, analysis of utility shifts showed that patients most feared being hospitalised, housebound or bedridden. These issues were more important than symptom improvement. Strategies for the clinical management of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease should clearly address patients' concerns and focus on preventing and treating exacerbations to avoid these feared outcomes.

  14. Modeling individual and collective opinion in online social networks: drivers of choice behavior and effects of marketing interventions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koster, S.E.; Langley, D.J.

    2013-01-01

    We investigate factors influencing choice behavior in online social networks. We use twitter data from a Dutch television talent show. In study one, we implement a nested conditional logit model with latent classes. We find heterogeneous effects. For two latent classes, cognitive factors most

  15. Have Disability Transfers Caused the Decline in Older Male Labor Force Participation? A Work-Status Rational Choice Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haveman, Robert H.; Wolfe, Barbara L.

    This paper presents a decision-process model for explaining the growth in transfer recipiency (the receipt by working age people of disability income), the choice of work status, and the reduction in labor force participation of older workers. It is hypothesized that the attractiveness of disability income transfer options has led older male…

  16. Analysis of the Professional Choice Self-Efficacy Scale Using the Rasch-Andrich Rating Scale Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ambiel, Rodolfo A. M.; Noronha, Ana Paula Porto; de Francisco Carvalho, Lucas

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this research was to analyze the psychometrics properties of the professional choice self-efficacy scale (PCSES), using the Rasch-Andrich rating scale model. The PCSES assesses four factors: self-appraisal, gathering occupational information, practical professional information search and future planning. Participants were 883 Brazilian…

  17. Multinational consistency of a discrete choice model in quantifying health states for the extended 5-level EQ-5D

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krabbe, P.F.M.; Devlin, N.J.; Stolk, E.A.; Shah, K.K.; Oppe, M.; Van Hout, B.; Quik, E.H.; Pickard, A.S.; Xie, F.

    2013-01-01

    Objectives: To investigate the feasibility of choice experiments for EQ-5D-5L states using computer-based data collection, and to examine the consistency of the estimated parameters values derived after modeling the stated preference data across countries in a multinational study. Methods: Similar

  18. Model and Measurement Methodology for the Analysis of Consumer Choice of Food Products

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Wierenga (Berend)

    1983-01-01

    textabstractThis paper considers the problem of a consumer purchasing a food product within a certain product class (e. g. meat, bread, vegetables, soft drinks, cheese) and making a choice from the different alternatives that are available.

  19. Preference pulses and the win-stay, fix-and-sample model of choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hachiga, Yosuke; Sakagami, Takayuki; Silberberg, Alan

    2015-11-01

    Two groups of six rats each were trained to respond to two levers for a food reinforcer. One group was trained on concurrent variable-ratio 20 extinction schedules of reinforcement. The second group was trained on a concurrent variable-interval 27-s extinction schedule. In both groups, lever-schedule assignments changed randomly following reinforcement; a light cued the lever providing the next reinforcer. In the next condition, the light cue was removed and reinforcer assignment strictly alternated between levers. The next two conditions redetermined, in order, the first two conditions. Preference pulses, defined as a tendency for relative response rate to decline to the just-reinforced alternative with time since reinforcement, only appeared during the extinction schedule. Although the pulse's functional form was well described by a reinforcer-induction equation, there was a large residual between actual data and a pulse-as-artifact simulation (McLean, Grace, Pitts, & Hughes, 2014) used to discern reinforcer-dependent contributions to pulsing. However, if that simulation was modified to include a win-stay tendency (a propensity to stay on the just-reinforced alternative), the residual was greatly reduced. Additional modifications of the parameter values of the pulse-as-artifact simulation enabled it to accommodate the present results as well as those it originally accommodated. In its revised form, this simulation was used to create a model that describes response runs to the preferred alternative as terminating probabilistically, and runs to the unpreferred alternative as punctate with occasional perseverative response runs. After reinforcement, choices are modeled as returning briefly to the lever location that had been just reinforced. This win-stay propensity is hypothesized as due to reinforcer induction. © Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

  20. Energy technologies and energy efficiency in economic modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klinge Jacobsen, Henrik

    1998-01-01

    This paper discusses different approaches to incorporating energy technologies and technological development in energy-economic models. Technological development is a very important issue in long-term energy demand projections and in environmental analyses. Different assumptions on technological ...... of renewable energy and especially wind power will increase the rate of efficiency improvement. A technologically based model in this case indirectly makes the energy efficiency endogenous in the aggregate energy-economy model....... technological development. This paper examines the effect on aggregate energy efficiency of using technological models to describe a number of specific technologies and of incorporating these models in an economic model. Different effects from the technology representation are illustrated. Vintage effects...... illustrates the dependence of average efficiencies and productivity on capacity utilisation rates. In the long run regulation induced by environmental policies are also very important for the improvement of aggregate energy efficiency in the energy supply sector. A Danish policy to increase the share...

  1. Modeling technological learning and its application for clean coal technologies in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakata, Toshihiko; Sato, Takemi; Wang, Hao; Kusunoki, Tomoya; Furubayashi, Takaaki

    2011-01-01

    Estimating technological progress of emerging technologies such as renewables and clean coal technologies becomes important for designing low carbon energy systems in future and drawing effective energy policies. Learning curve is an analytical approach for describing the decline rate of cost and production caused by technological progress as well as learning. In the study, a bottom-up energy-economic model including an endogenous technological learning function has been designed. The model deals with technological learning in energy conversion technologies and its spillover effect. It is applied as a feasibility study of clean coal technologies such as IGCC (Integrated Coal Gasification Combined Cycle) and IGFC (Integrated Coal Gasification Fuel Cell System) in Japan. As the results of analysis, it is found that technological progress by learning has a positive impact on the penetration of clean coal technologies in the electricity market, and the learning model has a potential for assessing upcoming technologies in future.

  2. Building a bridge into the future: dynamic connectionist modeling as an integrative tool for research on intertemporal choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scherbaum, Stefan; Dshemuchadse, Maja; Goschke, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    Temporal discounting denotes the fact that individuals prefer smaller rewards delivered sooner over larger rewards delivered later, often to a higher extent than suggested by normative economical theories. In this article, we identify three lines of research studying this phenomenon which aim (i) to describe temporal discounting mathematically, (ii) to explain observed choice behavior psychologically, and (iii) to predict the influence of specific factors on intertemporal decisions. We then opt for an approach integrating postulated mechanisms and empirical findings from these three lines of research. Our approach focuses on the dynamical properties of decision processes and is based on computational modeling. We present a dynamic connectionist model of intertemporal choice focusing on the role of self-control and time framing as two central factors determining choice behavior. Results of our simulations indicate that the two influences interact with each other, and we present experimental data supporting this prediction. We conclude that computational modeling of the decision process dynamics can advance the integration of different strands of research in intertemporal choice.

  3. Building a bridge into the future: Dynamic connectionist modeling as an integrative tool for research on intertemporal choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan eScherbaum

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Temporal discounting denotes the fact that individuals prefer smaller rewards delivered sooner over larger rewards delivered later, often to a higher extent than suggested by normative economical theories. In this article, we identify three lines of research studying this phenomenon which aim (i to describe temporal discounting mathematically, (ii to explain observed choice behavior psychologically, and (iii to predict the influence of specific factors on intertemporal decisions. We then opt for an approach integrating postulated mechanisms and empirical findings from these three lines of research. Our approach focuses on the dynamical properties of decision processes and is based on computational modeling. We present a dynamic connectionist model of intertemporal choice focusing on the role of self-control and time framing as two central factors determining choice behavior. Results of our simulations indicate that the two influences interact with each other, and we present experimental data supporting this prediction. We conclude that computational modeling of the decision process dynamics can advance the integration of different strands of research in intertemporal choice.

  4. A joint model of mode and shipment size choice using the first generation of Commodity Flow Survey Public Use Microdata

    OpenAIRE

    Monique Stinson; Zahra Pourabdollahi; Vladimir Livshits; Kyunghwi Jeon; Sreevatsa Nippani; Haidong Zhu

    2017-01-01

    A behavior-based supply chain and freight transportation model was developed and implemented for the Maricopa Association of Governments (MAG) and Pima Association of Governments (PAG). This innovative, data-driven modeling system simulates commodity flows to, from and within Phoenix and Tucson Megaregion and is used for regional planning purposes. This paper details the logistics choice component of the system and describes the position and functioning of this component in the overall framew...

  5. Choice probability generating functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel

    2013-01-01

    This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...... probabilities, and every CPGF is consistent with an ARUM. We relate CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and review and extend methods for constructing CPGF for applications. The choice probabilities of any ARUM may be approximated by a cross-nested logit model. The results for ARUM are extended...

  6. Implications of emission inventory choice for modeling fire-related pollution in the U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koplitz, S. N.; Nolte, C. G.; Pouliot, G.

    2017-12-01

    Wildland fires are a major source of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), one of the most harmful ambient pollutants for human health globally. Within the U.S., wildland fires can account for more than 30% of total annual PM2.5 emissions. In order to represent the influence of fire emissions on atmospheric composition, regional and global chemical transport models (CTMs) rely on fire emission inventories developed from estimates of burned area (i.e. fire size and location). Burned area can be estimated using a range of top-down and bottom-up approaches, including satellite-derived remote sensing and on-the-ground incident reports. While burned area estimates agree with each other reasonably well in the western U.S. (within 20-30% for most years during 2002-2014), estimates for the southern U.S. vary by more than a factor of 3. Differences in burned area estimation methods lead to significant variability in the spatial and temporal allocation of emissions across fire emission inventory platforms. In this work, we implement fire emission estimates for 2011 from three different products - the USEPA National Emission Inventory (NEI), the Fire INventory of NCAR (FINN), and the Global Fire Emission Database (GFED4s) - into the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to quantify and characterize differences in simulated fire-related PM2.5 and ozone concentrations across the contiguous U.S. due solely to the emission inventory used. Preliminary results indicate that the estimated contribution to national annual average PM2.5 from wildland fire in 2011 is highest using GFED4s emissions (1.0 µg m-3) followed by NEI (0.7 µg m-3) and FINN (0.3 µg m-3), with comparisons varying significantly by region and season. Understanding the sensitivity of modeling fire-related PM2.5 and ozone in the U.S. to fire emission inventory choice will inform future efforts to assess the implications of present and future fire activity for air quality and human health at national and global

  7. Advanced technologies for genetically manipulating the silkworm Bombyx mori, a model Lepidopteran insect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Hanfu; O'Brochta, David A.

    2015-01-01

    Genetic technologies based on transposon-mediated transgenesis along with several recently developed genome-editing technologies have become the preferred methods of choice for genetically manipulating many organisms. The silkworm, Bombyx mori, is a Lepidopteran insect of great economic importance because of its use in silk production and because it is a valuable model insect that has greatly enhanced our understanding of the biology of insects, including many agricultural pests. In the past 10 years, great advances have been achieved in the development of genetic technologies in B. mori, including transposon-based technologies that rely on piggyBac-mediated transgenesis and genome-editing technologies that rely on protein- or RNA-guided modification of chromosomes. The successful development and application of these technologies has not only facilitated a better understanding of B. mori and its use as a silk production system, but also provided valuable experiences that have contributed to the development of similar technologies in non-model insects. This review summarizes the technologies currently available for use in B. mori, their application to the study of gene function and their use in genetically modifying B. mori for biotechnology applications. The challenges, solutions and future prospects associated with the development and application of genetic technologies in B. mori are also discussed. PMID:26108630

  8. Discrete Choice Model of Food Store Trips Using National Household Food Acquisition and Purchase Survey (FoodAPS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hillier, Amy; Smith, Tony E; Whiteman, Eliza D; Chrisinger, Benjamin W

    2017-09-27

    Where households across income levels shop for food is of central concern within a growing body of research focused on where people live relative to where they shop, what they purchase and eat, and how those choices influence the risk of obesity and chronic disease. We analyzed data from the National Household Food Acquisition and Purchase Survey (FoodAPS) using a conditional logit model to determine where participants shop for food to be prepared and eaten at home and how individual and household characteristics of food shoppers interact with store characteristics and distance from home in determining store choice. Store size, whether or not it was a full-service supermarket, and the driving distance from home to the store constituted the three significant main effects on store choice. Overall, participants were more likely to choose larger stores, conventional supermarkets rather than super-centers and other types of stores, and stores closer to home. Interaction effects show that participants receiving Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) were even more likely to choose larger stores. Hispanic participants were more likely than non-Hispanics to choose full-service supermarkets while White participants were more likely to travel further than non-Whites. This study demonstrates the value of explicitly spatial discrete choice models and provides evidence of national trends consistent with previous smaller, local studies.

  9. Railway and road discrete choice model for foreign trade freight between Antioquia and the Port of Cartagena

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. D. Pineda-Jaramillo

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Most Colombian freight is transported on roads with barely acceptable conditions, and although there is a speculation about the need for a railway for freight transportation, there is not a study in Colombia showing the variables that influence the modal choice by the companies that generate freight transportation. This article presents the calculation of demand for a hypothetical railway through a discrete choice model. It begins with a qualitative research through focus group techniques to identify the variables that influence the choice of persons responsible for the transportation of large commercial companies in Antioquia (Colombia. The influential variables in the election were the cost and service frequency, and these variables were used to apply a Stated Preference (SP and Revealed Preference (RP survey, then to calibrate a Multinomial Logit Model (MNL, and to estimate the influence of each of them. We show that the probability of railway choice by the studied companies varies between 67% and 93%, depending on differences in these variables.

  10. Discrete Choice Model of Food Store Trips Using National Household Food Acquisition and Purchase Survey (FoodAPS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amy Hillier

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Where households across income levels shop for food is of central concern within a growing body of research focused on where people live relative to where they shop, what they purchase and eat, and how those choices influence the risk of obesity and chronic disease. We analyzed data from the National Household Food Acquisition and Purchase Survey (FoodAPS using a conditional logit model to determine where participants shop for food to be prepared and eaten at home and how individual and household characteristics of food shoppers interact with store characteristics and distance from home in determining store choice. Store size, whether or not it was a full-service supermarket, and the driving distance from home to the store constituted the three significant main effects on store choice. Overall, participants were more likely to choose larger stores, conventional supermarkets rather than super-centers and other types of stores, and stores closer to home. Interaction effects show that participants receiving Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP were even more likely to choose larger stores. Hispanic participants were more likely than non-Hispanics to choose full-service supermarkets while White participants were more likely to travel further than non-Whites. This study demonstrates the value of explicitly spatial discrete choice models and provides evidence of national trends consistent with previous smaller, local studies.

  11. Mode choice models' ability to express intention to change travel behaviour considering non-compensatory rules and latent variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nobuhiro Sanko

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Disaggregate behaviour choice models have been improved in many aspects, but they are rarely evaluated from the viewpoint of their ability to express intention to change travel behaviour. This study compared various models, including objective and latent models and compensatory and non-compensatory decision-making models. Latent models contain latent factors calculated using the LISREL (linear structural relations model. Non-compensatory models are based on a lexicographic-semiorder heuristic. This paper proposes ‘probability increment’ and ‘joint probability increment’ as indicators for evaluating the ability of these models to express intention to change travel behaviour. The application to commuting travel data in the Chukyo metropolitan area in Japan showed that the appropriate non-compensatory and latent models outperform other models.

  12. Influencing Mechanism of Potential Factors on Passengers’ Long-Distance Travel Mode Choices Based on Structural Equation Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yun Wang

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the public transportation users’ preferences to long-distance travel modes would contribute to reasonable developing policies and resource allocation. This paper aims to explore the influencing mechanism of potential factors on the long-distance travel mode choice. A survey was conducted to collect the data. The analysis of variance (ANOVA approach was applied to analyze the correlation relationship between potential factors and travel mode choice behavior. The results showed that, except gender, service demand for safety and departure time, all of the other factors significantly influenced the travel mode choice behavior. Specifically, passengers with higher education level and income level were more likely to choose high-speed railway (HSR and plane; passengers caring about travel expense were more likely to choose ordinary train, whereas plane and HSR may be chosen more by passengers caring more about comfort, punctuality and efficiency; the more passengers were satisfied with travel modes’ service performance, the more they would be likely to choose them; the most competitive distance ranges for coach, ordinary train, HSR and plane were below 500 km, 500–1000 km, 500–1500 km and over 1500 km, respectively. Besides, the structural equation modeling (SEM technique was applied to investigate the influencing mechanism of factors on the long-distance travel mode choice. The results revealed that travel distance was the most significant variable directly influencing passengers’ mode choices, followed by the service demand, performance evaluation, and personal attributes. Furthermore, personal attributes were verified to have an indirect effect on travel mode choice behavior by significantly affecting the service demand and performance evaluation.

  13. Impact of modeling Choices on Inventory and In-Cask Criticality Calculations for Forsmark 3 BWR Spent Fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinez-Gonzalez, Jesus S.; Ade, Brian J.; Bowman, Stephen M.; Gauld, Ian C.; Ilas, Germina; Marshall, William BJ J.

    2015-01-01

    Simulation of boiling water reactor (BWR) fuel depletion poses a challenge for nuclide inventory validation and nuclear criticality safety analyses. This challenge is due to the complex operating conditions and assembly design heterogeneities that characterize these nuclear systems. Fuel depletion simulations and in-cask criticality calculations are affected by (1) completeness of design information, (2) variability of operating conditions needed for modeling purposes, and (3) possible modeling choices. These effects must be identified, quantified, and ranked according to their significance. This paper presents an investigation of BWR fuel depletion using a complete set of actual design specifications and detailed operational data available for five operating cycles of the Swedish BWR Forsmark 3 reactor. The data includes detailed axial profiles of power, burnup, and void fraction in a very fine temporal mesh for a GE14 (10x10) fuel assembly. The specifications of this case can be used to assess the impacts of different modeling choices on inventory prediction and in-cask criticality, specifically regarding the key parameters that drive inventory and reactivity throughout fuel burnup. This study focused on the effects of the fidelity with which power history and void fraction distributions are modeled. The corresponding sensitivity of the reactivity in storage configurations is assessed, and the impacts of modeling choices on decay heat and inventory are addressed.

  14. Modeling the Equilibrium Bus Line Choice Behavior and Transit System Design with Oblivious Users

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuan-Lin Zhao

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In most of transportation literature, users are assumed to be perfectly rational in minimizing their own travel costs or perceived travel costs. However, users may not be perfectly rational in implementing their choices in reality. There exists a kind of boundedly rational users, that is, oblivious users. These oblivious users make their route choices by simple criteria, for example, selecting the shortest (or the most direct route only based on physical distance or simply following routes recommended by a GPS system. This paper investigates how the existence of oblivious users affects the equilibrium bus line choice behavior in a public transit system. And we propose a method to design a more realistic system.

  15. Residential location choice of knowledge-workers in a "startup metropolis": the role of amenities, workplace and lifestyle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frenkel, Amnon; Bendit, Edward; Kaplan, Sigal

    2013-01-01

    This study investigates the residential location choice of knowledge-workers at the intra-metropolitan level by applying discrete choice models. The models represent housing choices of 833 knowledge-workers in high-technology and financial services and analyze the relative importance of lifestyle...

  16. Towards a Model of Technology Adoption: A Conceptual Model Proposition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costello, Pat; Moreton, Rob

    A conceptual model for Information Communication Technology (ICT) adoption by Small Medium Enterprises (SMEs) is proposed. The research uses several ICT adoption models as its basis with theoretical underpinning provided by the Diffusion of Innovation theory and the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM). Taking an exploratory research approach the model was investigated amongst 200 SMEs whose core business is ICT. Evidence from this study demonstrates that these SMEs face the same issues as all other industry sectors. This work points out weaknesses in SMEs environments regarding ICT adoption and suggests what they may need to do to increase the success rate of any proposed adoption. The methodology for development of the framework is described and recommendations made for improved Government-led ICT adoption initiatives. Application of the general methodology has resulted in new opportunities to embed the ethos and culture surrounding the issues into the framework of new projects developed as a result of Government intervention. A conceptual model is proposed that may lead to a deeper understanding of the issues under consideration.

  17. Uncertainty modeling process for semantic technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rommel N. Carvalho

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The ubiquity of uncertainty across application domains generates a need for principled support for uncertainty management in semantically aware systems. A probabilistic ontology provides constructs for representing uncertainty in domain ontologies. While the literature has been growing on formalisms for representing uncertainty in ontologies, there remains little guidance in the knowledge engineering literature for how to design probabilistic ontologies. To address the gap, this paper presents the Uncertainty Modeling Process for Semantic Technology (UMP-ST, a new methodology for modeling probabilistic ontologies. To explain how the methodology works and to verify that it can be applied to different scenarios, this paper describes step-by-step the construction of a proof-of-concept probabilistic ontology. The resulting domain model can be used to support identification of fraud in public procurements in Brazil. While the case study illustrates the development of a probabilistic ontology in the PR-OWL probabilistic ontology language, the methodology is applicable to any ontology formalism that properly integrates uncertainty with domain semantics.

  18. Keeping learning central: a model for implementing emerging technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willcockson, Irmgard U.; Phelps, Cynthia L.

    2010-01-01

    Felt problem Technology integration continues to be a challenge for health science faculty. While students expect emerging technologies to be used in the classroom, faculty members desire a strategic process to incorporate technology for the students' benefit. Our solution We have developed a model that provides faculty a strategy for integrating emerging technologies into the classroom. The model is grounded in student learning and may be applied to any technology. We present the model alongside examples from faculty who have used it to incorporate technology into their health sciences classrooms. PMID:20165698

  19. Promoting Sustainability through Investment in Building Information Modeling (BIM Technologies: A Design Company Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marius Reizgevičius

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this article is to enhance the understanding of how design companies perceive the benefits of Building Information Modeling (BIM technologies application. BIM is recognized in the literature as a (potentially powerful driver leading the construction sector towards sustainability. However, for design companies, the choice to invest in BIM technologies is basically an economic one. Specifically, a design company assesses economic benefits and efficiency improvements thanks to the application of BIM technologies. The article discusses the return on investments (ROI in BIM technologies and reviews ROI calculation methodologies proposed by other authors. In order to evaluate BIM return on investment correctly practical ROI calculations are carried out. Appropriate methods, together with the relevant variables for ROI calculation, are developed. The study allows for adjusting the calculation method making it more accurate and understandable using the Autodesk Revit based ROI calculation of the first year.

  20. Classification Model That Predicts Medical Students' Choices of Primary Care or Non-Primary Care Specialties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fincher, Ruth-Marie E.; And Others

    1992-01-01

    This study identified factors in graduating medical students' choice of primary versus nonprimary care specialty. Subjects were 509 students at the Medical College of Georgia in 1988-90. Students could be classified by such factors as desire for longitudinal patient care opportunities, monetary rewards, perception of lifestyle, and perception of…

  1. Mixed multinomial logit model for out-of-home leisure activity choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grigolon, A.B.; Kemperman, A.D.A.M.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2013-01-01

    This paper documents the design and results of a study on the factors influencing the choice of out-of-home leisure activities. Influencing factors seem related to socio-demographic characteristics, personal preferences, characteristics of the built environment and other aspects of the activities

  2. The axiom of multiple choice and models for constructive set theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Berg, B.; Moerdijk, I.

    2014-01-01

    We propose an extension of Aczel's constructive set theory CZF by an axiom for inductive types and a choice principle, and show that this extension has the following properties: it is interpretable in Martin-Löf's type theory (hence acceptable from a constructive and generalized-predicative

  3. Dynamic Route Choice Modelling of the Effects of Travel Information using RP Data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Moraes Ramos, G.

    2015-01-01

    Traffic congestion is experienced by a great number of travellers during peak hours and is directly influenced by travel-related decisions, such as route choice decisions. In order to minimize problems that arise from congestion, such as delays, uncertainty and environmental effects, there has been

  4. Effects of various cannabinoid ligands on choice behaviour in a rat model of gambling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gueye, Aliou B; Trigo, Jose M; Vemuri, Kiran V; Makriyannis, Alexandros; Le Foll, Bernard

    2016-04-01

    It is estimated that 0.6-1% of the population in the USA and Canada fulfil the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 5th ed. (DSM-5) criteria for gambling disorders (GD). To date, there are no approved pharmacological treatments for GD. The rat gambling task (rGT) is a recently developed rodent analogue of the Iowa gambling task in which rats are trained to associate four response holes with different magnitudes and probabilities of food pellet rewards and punishing time-out periods. Similar to healthy human volunteers, most rats adopt the optimal strategies (optimal group). However, a subset of animals show preference for the disadvantageous options (suboptimal group), mimicking the choice pattern of patients with GD. Here, we explored for the first time the effects of various cannabinoid ligands (WIN 55,212-2, AM 4113, AM 630 and URB 597) on the rGT. Administration of the cannabinoid agonist CB1/CB2 WIN 55,212-2 improved choice strategy and increased choice latency in the suboptimal group, but only increased perseverative behaviour, when punished, in the optimal group. Blockade of CB1 or CB2 receptors or inhibition of fatty-acid amide hydrolase did not affect rGT performance. These results suggest that stimulation of cannabinoid receptors could affect gambling choice behaviours differentially in some subgroups of subjects.

  5. Structural modelling of economic growth: Technological changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sukharev Oleg

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Neoclassical and Keynesian theories of economic growth assume the use of Cobb-Douglas modified functions and other aggregate econometric approaches to growth dynamics modelling. In that case explanations of economic growth are based on the logic of the used mathematical ratios often including the ideas about aggregated values change and factors change a priori. The idea of assessment of factor productivity is the fundamental one among modern theories of economic growth. Nevertheless, structural parameters of economic system, institutions and technological changes are practically not considered within known approaches, though the latter is reflected in the changing parameters of production function. At the same time, on the one hand, the ratio of structural elements determines the future value of the total productivity of the factors and, on the other hand, strongly influences the rate of economic growth and its mode of innovative dynamics. To put structural parameters of economic system into growth models with the possibility of assessment of such modes under conditions of interaction of new and old combinations is an essential step in the development of the theory of economic growth/development. It allows forming stimulation policy of economic growth proceeding from the structural ratios and relations recognized for this economic system. It is most convenient in such models to use logistic functions demonstrating the resource change for old and new combination within the economic system. The result of economy development depends on starting conditions, and on institutional parameters of velocity change of resource borrowing in favour of a new combination and creation of its own resource. Model registration of the resource is carried out through the idea of investments into new and old combinations.

  6. Emulsification: modelling, technologies and applications (preface)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sheibat-Othman, Nida; Charton, Sophie

    2014-01-01

    This special issue section offers an overview of the papers presented at the conference 'Emulsification: Modelling, Technologies and Applications' held in Lyon, France from 19 to 21 November 2012. The conference was part of the 'Vingt cinquiemes Entretiens du Centre Jacques Cartier', a series of meetings organised by the Centre Jacques Cartier and chaired by Dr. Alain Bideau. The symposium dealt with the topic of Emulsification, highlighting the common issues shared by different sectors of activity, including the chemical, petrochemical, nuclear, cosmetics, and food industries. Despite the recent significant advances, the research presented in this special issue section highlights the inadequacies of our knowledge of the complex, and often coupled, phenomena involved in the emulsification process. Indeed in order to understand how emulsions are created, it is necessary to determine how the droplet size and size distribution are related to the relevant fields of Physics, and in particular one can identify fluid dynamics and interfacial chemistry as the key disciplines. Furthermore, due to a lack of appropriate and accurate measurements of the important physical properties of emulsions, modelling and numerical simulation appear as essential tools for R and D in emulsion processes and control. This of course implies that physically realistic models are developed and implemented. The knowledge and control of the concentration and drop size distribution (DSD) in a given apparatus are indeed of primary importance for optimal process performances and minimal environmental impact. In order to address some of these needs, the current special issue section focuses on the main chemical engineering aspects of emulsification systems. It gathers papers that treat the generation of emulsions, their implementation and characterisation, as well as the current research studies regarding interfacial chemistry and dynamics, and the basic models of breakage/coalescence, without

  7. Testing a bioenergetics-based habitat choice model: bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus) responses to food availability and temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Using an automated shuttlebox system, we conducted patch choice experiments with 32, 8–12 g bluegill sunfish (Lepomis macrochirus) to test a behavioral energetics hypothesis of habitat choice. When patch temperature and food levels were held constant within patches but different between patches, we expected bluegill to choose patches that maximized growth based on the bioenergetic integration of food and temperature as predicted by a bioenergetics model. Alternative hypotheses were that bluegill may choose patches based only on food (optimal foraging) or temperature (behavioral thermoregulation). The behavioral energetics hypothesis was not a good predictor of short-term (from minutes to weeks) patch choice by bluegill; the behavioral thermoregulation hypothesis was the best predictor. In the short-term, food and temperature appeared to affect patch choice hierarchically; temperature was more important, although food can alter temperature preference during feeding periods. Over a 19-d experiment, mean temperatures occupied by fish offered low rations did decline as predicted by the behavioral energetics hypothesis, but the decline was less than 1.0 °C as opposed to a possible 5 °C decline. A short-term, bioenergetic response to food and temperature may be precluded by physiological costs of acclimation not considered explicitly in the behavioral energetics hypothesis.

  8. A user equilibrium, traffic assignment model of network route and parking lot choice, with search circuits and cruising flows

    OpenAIRE

    LEURENT, Fabien; BOUJNAH, Houda

    2014-01-01

    The paper provides a novel network model of parking and route choice. Parking supply is represented by parking type, management strategy including the fare, capacity and occupancy rate of parking lot, and network location, in relation to access routes along the roadway network. Trip demand is segmented according to origin-destination pair, the disposal of private parking facilities and the individual preferences for parking quality of service. Each traveller is assumed to make a two stage cho...

  9. Application of the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) in electronic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Application of the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) in electronic ticket purchase for ... current study examined the perceived usefulness and ease of use of online technology ... The findings are discussed in the light of these perspectives.

  10. MOBILE CONTENT AND ADVERTISEMENT CHOICES OF TURKISH SPEAKING MOBILE MEDIA USERS

    OpenAIRE

    Osman Köroğlu

    2011-01-01

    Turkish speaking mobile communication device users’ mobile content and advertisement choices researched via a questionnaire prepared in the light of reasoned action theory, technology acceptance model, diffusion of innovations theory, unified technology acceptance and usage theory, and uses and gratifications approach. Findings of research analyzed and explained descriptively and statistically. In mobile content choices, economic viability, environment, function and context are important issu...

  11. Values, Choices, Responsibilities: Thinking beyond the Scholarly Place of Ethics for the GIScience and Technology Profession and GIScience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey, Francis

    2014-01-01

    To help ethical issues gain traction in geographic information technology education, this article proposes that the education of GIScience and technology professionals go beyond abstract scholarly ethics to applied approaches based on practical wisdom. The main point for educators made in this paper is that applied ethics' focus on values,…

  12. Linking Data Choices and Context Specificity in Life Cycle Assessment of Waste Treatment Technologies: A Landfill Case Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, Trine; Astrup, Thomas Fruergaard; Damgaard, Anders

    2017-01-01

    To generate meaningful results, life cycle assessments (LCAs) require accurate technology data that are consistent with the goal and scope of the analysis. While literature data are available for many products and processes, finding representative data for highly site-specific technologies, such as...

  13. Enhanced surrogate models for statistical design exploiting space mapping technology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koziel, Slawek; Bandler, John W.; Mohamed, Achmed S.

    2005-01-01

    We present advances in microwave and RF device modeling exploiting Space Mapping (SM) technology. We propose new SM modeling formulations utilizing input mappings, output mappings, frequency scaling and quadratic approximations. Our aim is to enhance circuit models for statistical analysis...

  14. A Joint Route Choice Model for Electric and Conventional Car Users

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Anders Fjendbo; Rasmussen, Thomas Kjær; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    Introduction Worldwide, governments have committed to reducing air pollution and carbon emissions. With a higher share of renewable sources in the electricity production, battery electric cars (EVs) could play a significant role in maintaining these commitments. Growing literature shows...... an increasing interest in EVs and their market, but current EV travel demand studies are usually based on data collected from users of conventional gasoline or diesel engine cars (CVs) (see e.g. (Golob and Gould 1998; Pearre et al. 2011; Greaves et al. 2014). EVs are however different from CVs in a number...... effects, such as effects on the electricity network and the transport network. The objective of this study is to use revealed preferences (RP) data to investigate differences in route choice behaviour between CV and EV users. To our knowledge, this is the first time that a state-of-the-art route choice...

  15. Mathematical models, rational choice, and the search for Cold War culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erickson, Paul

    2010-06-01

    A key feature of the social, behavioral, and biological sciences after World War II has been the widespread adoption of new mathematical techniques drawn from cybernetics, information theory, and theories of rational choice. Historians of science have typically sought to explain this adoption either by reference to military patronage, or to a characteristic Cold War culture or discursive framework strongly shaped by the concerns of national security. This essay explores several episodes in the history of game theory--a mathematical theory of rational choice--that demonstrate the limits of such explanations. Military funding was indeed critical to game theory's early development in the 1940s. However, the theory's subsequent spread across disciplines ranging from political science to evolutionary biology was the result of a diverse collection of debates about the nature of "rationality" and "choice" that marked the Cold War era. These debates are not easily reduced to the national security imperatives that have been the focus of much historiography to date.

  16. Constructing food choice decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobal, Jeffery; Bisogni, Carole A

    2009-12-01

    Food choice decisions are frequent, multifaceted, situational, dynamic, and complex and lead to food behaviors where people acquire, prepare, serve, give away, store, eat, and clean up. Many disciplines and fields examine decision making. Several classes of theories are applicable to food decision making, including social behavior, social facts, and social definition perspectives. Each offers some insights but also makes limiting assumptions that prevent fully explaining food choice decisions. We used constructionist social definition perspectives to inductively develop a food choice process model that organizes a broad scope of factors and dynamics involved in food behaviors. This food choice process model includes (1) life course events and experiences that establish a food choice trajectory through transitions, turning points, timing, and contexts; (2) influences on food choices that include cultural ideals, personal factors, resources, social factors, and present contexts; and (3) a personal system that develops food choice values, negotiates and balances values, classifies foods and situations, and forms/revises food choice strategies, scripts, and routines. The parts of the model dynamically interact to make food choice decisions leading to food behaviors. No single theory can fully explain decision making in food behavior. Multiple perspectives are needed, including constructionist thinking.

  17. Social modeling of eating: a review of when and why social influence affects food intake and choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruwys, Tegan; Bevelander, Kirsten E; Hermans, Roel C J

    2015-03-01

    A major determinant of human eating behavior is social modeling, whereby people use others' eating as a guide for what and how much to eat. We review the experimental studies that have independently manipulated the eating behavior of a social referent (either through a live confederate or remotely) and measured either food choice or intake. Sixty-nine eligible experiments (with over 5800 participants) were identified that were published between 1974 and 2014. Speaking to the robustness of the modeling phenomenon, 64 of these studies have found a statistically significant modeling effect, despite substantial diversity in methodology, food type, social context and participant demographics. In reviewing the key findings from these studies, we conclude that there is limited evidence for a moderating effect of hunger, personality, age, weight or the presence of others (i.e., where the confederate is live vs. remote). There is inconclusive evidence for whether sex, attention, impulsivity and eating goals moderate modeling, and for whether modeling of food choice is as strong as modeling of food intake. Effects with substantial evidence were: modeling is increased when individuals desire to affiliate with the model, or perceive themselves to be similar to the model; modeling is attenuated (but still significant) for healthy-snack foods and meals such as breakfast and lunch, and modeling is at least partially mediated through behavioral mimicry, which occurs without conscious awareness. We discuss evidence suggesting that modeling is motivated by goals of both affiliation and uncertainty-reduction, and outline how these might be theoretically integrated. Finally, we argue for the importance of taking modeling beyond the laboratory and bringing it to bear on the important societal challenges of obesity and disordered eating. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. MODELING PROBABILISTIC CONFLICT OF TECHNOLOGICAL SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. B. Desyatov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Recently for the study of conflict increasingly used method of mathematical optical modeling. Its importance stems from the fact that experimental research such conflicts rather time-consuming and complex. However, existing approaches to the study of conflict do not take into account the stochastic nature of the systems, suffers from conceptual incompleteness. There is a need to develop models, algorithms and principles, in order to assess the conflict, to choose conflict resolution to ensure that not the worst of conditions. For stochastic technological systems as a utility function, we consider the probability of achieving a given objective. We assume that some system S1 is in conflict with the system S2, (SR2R К SR1R, if q(SR1R,SR2R

  19. On the choice of structures of equipment for preliminary data processing for a data acquisition subsystem of the automation control system for controlling technological parameters of tokamak devices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bondarenko, I.M.; Gerasimov, V.P.; Mozin, I.V.; Repin, S.S.; Skosarev, V.A.

    1982-01-01

    The necessity is substantiated to use a complex approach to constructing measuring channels of data acquisition subsystems in automation control systems for controlling technological processes in tokamak thermonuclear installations including preliminary data processing equipment, incorporated devices and measuring converters, which enables to minimize the whole bulk of equipment units, while attaining the best metrological features of the channels. Some examples are given designing measuring channels for different kind of signals. Special attention is paid to the choice of structures of measuring channels for signals from sensors under high voltage isolated from the ground potential. It is found reasonable to use analog-time data conversion and optoelectronic isolating elements from the viewpoint of simplicity of apparatus, good manufacturing technology and adjusting measuring channels elements

  20. Attention to food and beverage advertisements as measured by eye-tracking technology and the food preferences and choices of youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velazquez, Cayley E; Pasch, Keryn E

    2014-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine how objective measures of attention to food/beverage advertising were associated with the unhealthy food/beverage preferences and choices of children and adolescents. A self-report survey and eye-tracking session were completed by 102 youth (mean age=11.6 years; 56.4% were white; 43.1% were female) between April and November 2010. Participants viewed 40 food/beverage advertisements on a computer and their eye movements were recorded. Objective attention measures included total viewing time, fixation length (time spent viewing characters/logos, unhealthy food/beverage items), and fixation count (number of times an individual stops to examine characters/logos, unhealthy food/beverage items). Food/beverage preferences and choices were measured by self-report. The preferences index summed responses to 12 questions measuring snack food and sugar-sweetened beverage preferences and the choices index summed responses to eight questions measuring consumption of snack foods and sugar-sweetened beverages. Regression models examined whether attention to food/beverage advertising was associated with food preferences and choices, controlling for sex, age, and body mass index z score. The length of time and number of times participants looked at unhealthy food and beverage items within advertisements were each significantly associated with unhealthy food/beverage preferences of youth (Ppurchase requests, given the important role of parents in the decision-making process surrounding food choice. Copyright © 2014 Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Modeling Impulse and Non-Impulse Store Choice Processes in a Multi-Agent Simulation of Pedestrian Activity in Shopping Environments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dijkstra, J.; Timmermans, H.J.P.; Vries, de B.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2009-01-01

    This chapter presents a multi-agent approach for modeling impulse and non-impulse store choice processes of pedestrian activity in shopping environments. The pedestrian simulation context will be discussed as well as the behavioral principles underlying the store choice processes. For these

  2. The effects of activity-travel context and individual attitudes on car-sharing decisions under travel time uncertainty : a hybrid choice modeling approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kim, J.; Rasouli, S.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2017-01-01

    People's daily decision to use car-sharing rather than other transport modes for conducting a specific activity has been investigated recently in assessing the market potential of car-sharing systems. Most studies have estimated transport mode choice models with an extended choice set using

  3. Reinforcement learning models of risky choice and the promotion of risk-taking by losses disguised as wins in rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Andrew T; Kirkpatrick, Kimberly

    2017-07-01

    Risky decisions are inherently characterized by the potential to receive gains or incur losses, and these outcomes have distinct effects on subsequent decision-making. One important factor is that individuals engage in loss-chasing, in which the reception of a loss is followed by relatively increased risk-taking. Unfortunately, the mechanisms of loss-chasing are poorly understood, despite the potential importance for understanding pathological choice behavior. The goal of the present experiment was to illuminate the mechanisms governing individual differences in loss-chasing and risky-choice behaviors. Rats chose between a low-uncertainty outcome that always delivered a variable amount of reward and a high-uncertainty outcome that probabilistically delivered reward. Loss-processing and loss-chasing were assessed in the context of losses disguised as wins (LDWs), which are loss outcomes that are presented along with gain-related stimuli. LDWs have been suggested to interfere with adaptive decision-making in humans and thus potentially increase loss-making. Here, the rats presented with LDWs were riskier, in that they made more choices for the high-uncertainty outcome. A series of nonlinear models were fit to individual rats' data to elucidate the possible psychological mechanisms that best account for individual differences in high-uncertainty choices and loss-chasing behaviors. The models suggested that the rats presented with LDWs were more prone to showing a stay bias following high-uncertainty outcomes compared to rats not presented with LDWs. These results collectively suggest that LDWs acquire conditioned reinforcement properties that encourage continued risk-taking and increase loss-chasing following previous high-risk decisions. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  4. Technology choice and CDM projects in China: case study of a small steel company in Shandong Province

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaneko, Shinji; Yonamine, Asaka; Jung, Tae Yong

    2006-01-01

    Corporate motives and strategies of both investing and hosting country affect the outcomes of a clean development mechanism (CDM) project-who introduces what technology to whom-and result in large differences in economic viability and the CO 2 emission reductions. This is particularly true for steel industry in which steel making consists of many detailed and complex processes, a given strategy could produce cumulative effects of the individual technologies used, leading to large energy savings overall. The objective of this study is to demonstrate some analytical methods that can be used to quantitatively evaluate the impacts of technology selection on the profit performance of CDM projects. Specifically, in this study we analyze a CDM project to introduce energy saving technology from Japan to a small steel manufacturer in China's Shandong Province, and conduct a simulation of the quantitative relationships between various technology options and profitability. Based on these results, we examine the environmental and economic significance of technology selection for CDM projects. To take this further, we then reconsider the profitability of a project as typical FDI activity (i.e., without the CDM), and by comparing this outcome with the CDM case, we clarify the significance and potential of the CDM

  5. Modelling discrete choice variables in assessment of teaching staff work satisfaction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mieilă, Mihai; Popescu, Constanţa; Tudorache, Ana-Maria; Toplicianu, Valerică

    2015-01-01

    Levels of self-reported job satisfaction and motivation were measured by survey in a sample of 286 teachers. Using the discrete choice framework, the paper tries to assess the relevance of the considered indicators (demographic, social, motivational) in overall teaching work satisfaction. The findings provide evidence that job satisfaction is correlated significantly with level of university degree held by the teacher, type of secondary school where the teacher is enrolled, revenues, and salary-tasks adequacy. This is important for the Romanian economy, since the education system is expected to provide future human resources with enhanced skills and abilities.

  6. Modelling discrete choice variables in assessment of teaching staff work satisfaction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihai Mieilă

    Full Text Available Levels of self-reported job satisfaction and motivation were measured by survey in a sample of 286 teachers. Using the discrete choice framework, the paper tries to assess the relevance of the considered indicators (demographic, social, motivational in overall teaching work satisfaction. The findings provide evidence that job satisfaction is correlated significantly with level of university degree held by the teacher, type of secondary school where the teacher is enrolled, revenues, and salary-tasks adequacy. This is important for the Romanian economy, since the education system is expected to provide future human resources with enhanced skills and abilities.

  7. Effect of patient choice and hospital competition on service configuration and technology adoption within cancer surgery: a national, population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aggarwal, Ajay; Lewis, Daniel; Mason, Malcolm; Purushotham, Arnie; Sullivan, Richard; van der Meulen, Jan

    2017-11-01

    There is a scarcity of evidence about the role of patient choice and hospital competition policies on surgical cancer services. Previous evidence has shown that patients are prepared to bypass their nearest cancer centre to receive surgery at more distant centres that better meet their needs. In this national, population-based study we investigated the effect of patient mobility and hospital competition on service configuration and technology adoption in the National Health Service (NHS) in England, using prostate cancer surgery as a model. We mapped all patients in England who underwent radical prostatectomy between Jan 1, 2010, and Dec 31, 2014, according to place of residence and treatment location. For each radical prostatectomy centre we analysed the effect of hospital competition (measured by use of a spatial competition index [SCI], with a score of 0 indicating weakest competition and 1 indicating strongest competition) and the effect of being an established robotic radical prostatectomy centre at the start of 2010 on net gains or losses of patients (difference between number of patients treated in a centre and number expected based on their residence), and the likelihood of closing their radical prostatectomy service. Between Jan 1, 2010, and Dec 31, 2014, 19 256 patients underwent radical prostatectomy at an NHS provider in England. Of the 65 radical prostatectomy centres open at the start of the study period, 23 (35%) had a statistically significant net gain of patients during 2010-14. Ten (40%) of these 23 were established robotic centres. 37 (57%) of the 65 centres had a significant net loss of patients, of which two (5%) were established robotic centres and ten (27%) closed their radical prostatectomy service during the study period. Radical prostatectomy centres that closed were more likely to be located in areas with stronger competition (highest SCI quartile [0·87-0·92]; p=0·0081) than in areas with weaker competition. No robotic surgery centre

  8. Technology, Demographic Characteristics and E-Learning Acceptance: A Conceptual Model Based on Extended Technology Acceptance Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarhini, Ali; Elyas, Tariq; Akour, Mohammad Ali; Al-Salti, Zahran

    2016-01-01

    The main aim of this paper is to develop an amalgamated conceptual model of technology acceptance that explains how individual, social, cultural and organizational factors affect the students' acceptance and usage behaviour of the Web-based learning systems. More specifically, the proposed model extends the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) to…

  9. Processing of recognition information and additional cues: A model-based analysis of choice, confidence, and response time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Glockner

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Research on the processing of recognition information has focused on testing the recognition heuristic (RH. On the aggregate, the noncompensatory use of recognition information postulated by the RH was rejected in several studies, while RH could still account for a considerable proportion of choices. These results can be explained if either a a part of the subjects used RH or b nobody used it but its choice predictions were accidentally in line with predictions of the strategy used. In the current study, which exemplifies a new approach to model testing, we determined individuals' decision strategies based on a maximum-likelihood classification method, taking into account choices, response times and confidence ratings simultaneously. Unlike most previous studies of the RH, our study tested the RH under conditions in which we provided information about cue values of unrecognized objects (which we argue is fairly common and thus of some interest. For 77.5% of the subjects, overall behavior was best explained by a compensatory parallel constraint satisfaction (PCS strategy. The proportion of subjects using an enhanced RH heuristic (RHe was negligible (up to 7.5%; 15% of the subjects seemed to use a take the best strategy (TTB. A more-fine grained analysis of the supplemental behavioral parameters conditional on strategy use supports PCS but calls into question process assumptions for apparent users of RH, RHe, and TTB within our experimental context. Our results are consistent with previous literature highlighting the importance of individual strategy classification as compared to aggregated analyses.

  10. Reproductive fitness and dietary choice behavior of the genetic model organism Caenorhabditis elegans under semi-natural conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freyth, Katharina; Janowitz, Tim; Nunes, Frank; Voss, Melanie; Heinick, Alexander; Bertaux, Joanne; Scheu, Stefan; Paul, Rüdiger J

    2010-10-01

    Laboratory breeding conditions of the model organism C. elegans do not correspond with the conditions in its natural soil habitat. To assess the consequences of the differences in environmental conditions, the effects of air composition, medium and bacterial food on reproductive fitness and/or dietary-choice behavior of C. elegans were investigated. The reproductive fitness of C. elegans was maximal under oxygen deficiency and not influenced by a high fractional share of carbon dioxide. In media approximating natural soil structure, reproductive fitness was much lower than in standard laboratory media. In seminatural media, the reproductive fitness of C. elegans was low with the standard laboratory food bacterium E. coli (γ-Proteobacteria), but significantly higher with C. arvensicola (Bacteroidetes) and B. tropica (β-Proteobacteria) as food. Dietary-choice experiments in semi-natural media revealed a low preference of C. elegans for E. coli but significantly higher preferences for C. arvensicola and B. tropica (among other bacteria). Dietary-choice experiments under quasi-natural conditions, which were feasible by fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) of bacteria, showed a high preference of C. elegans for Cytophaga-Flexibacter-Bacteroides, Firmicutes, and β-Proteobacteria, but a low preference for γ-Proteobacteria. The results show that data on C. elegans under standard laboratory conditions have to be carefully interpreted with respect to their biological significance.

  11. A systemic model for differentiating school technology integration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tel Amiel

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available School technology integration rarely begins with school or educator choice. It is part of a wider context where external and internal factors have direct influence on the goals and tools that are adopted over time. The objective of this study is to investigate the systemic conditions that contribute or inhibit the development of different activities by teachers making use of new media. We compiled a list of well-known conditions for technology integration success and mapped these in the historical and culturally bound perspective of activity theory (cultural historical activity theory. We conducted a multiple case study analysis of four schools, public and private. The results point to unique and distinctive scenarios even when homogeneity would be expected, reinforcing the argument that material conditions do not determine pedagogical outcomes nor do they determine changes in practice. Beyond this, the study proposes a methodology that can help elicit tensions in technology integration, pointing to avenues for school development.

  12. Technology Marketing using PCA , SOM, and STP Strategy Modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Sunghae Jun

    2011-01-01

    Technology marketing is a total processing about identifying and meeting the technological needs of human society. Most technology results exist in intellectual properties like patents. In our research, we consider patent document as a technology. So patent data are analyzed by Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Self Organizing Map (SOM) for STP(Segmentation, Targeting, and Positioning) strategy modeling. STP is a popular approach for developing marketing strategies. We use STP strategy m...

  13. Measuring Technology Acceptance Level of Turkish Pre-Service English Teachers by Using Technology Acceptance Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirmizi, Özkan

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study is to investigate technology acceptance of prospective English teachers by using Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) in Turkish context. The study is based on Structural Equation Model (SEM). The participants of the study from English Language Teaching Departments of Hacettepe, Gazi and Baskent Universities. The participants…

  14. Integrated modelling in materials and process technology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hattel, Jesper Henri

    2008-01-01

    Integrated modelling of entire process sequences and the subsequent in-service conditions, and multiphysics modelling of the single process steps are areas that increasingly support optimisation of manufactured parts. In the present paper, three different examples of modelling manufacturing...... processes from the viewpoint of combined materials and process modelling are presented: solidification of thin walled ductile cast iron, integrated modelling of spray forming and multiphysics modelling of friction stir welding. The fourth example describes integrated modelling applied to a failure analysis...

  15. Interpreting User's Choice of Technologies: A Quantitative Research on Choosing the Best Web-Based Communication Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adebiaye, Richmond

    2010-01-01

    The proliferation of web-based communication tools like email clients vis-a-vis Yahoo mail, Gmail, and Hotmail have led to new innovations in web-based communication. Email users benefit greatly from this technology, but lack of security of these tools can put users at risk of loss of privacy, including identity theft, corporate espionage, and…

  16. The choice of the fuel assembly for VVER-1000 in a closed fuel cycle based on REMIX-technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bobrov, E.; Alekseev, P.; Chibinyaev, A.; Teplov, P.; Dudnikov, A.

    2016-01-01

    REMIX (Regenerated Mixture) fuel is produced directly from a non-separated mix of recycled uranium and plutonium from reprocessed used fuel and the fabrication technology of such fuel is called REMIX-technology. This paper shows basic features of different fuel assembly (FA) application for VVER-1000 in a closed fuel cycle based on REMIX-technology. This investigation shows how the change in the water-fuel ratio in the VVER FA affects the fuel characteristics produced by REMIX technology during multiple recycling. It is shown that for for the traditional REMIX-fuel it does not make sense to change anything in the design of VVER FA, because there are no advantages in the fuel feed consumption. The natural uranium economy by the fifth cycle reached about 29%. In the case of the REMIX fuel based on uranium-plutonium from SNF MOX fuel, it would be appropriate to use fuel assemblies with a water-fuel ratio of 1.5

  17. Сontrol systems using mathematical models of technological objects ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Сontrol systems using mathematical models of technological objects in the control loop. ... Journal of Fundamental and Applied Sciences ... Such mathematical models make it possible to specify the optimal operating modes of the considered ...

  18. "Soft Technology" and Criticism of the Western Model of Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harper, Peter

    1973-01-01

    Alternatives to the capitalistic Western model of develoment are suggested. Three problems afflicting Western society--alienation, resource exploitation, and eviornmental stability--are discussed and a model which advocates both political and technological change is proposed. (SM)

  19. Validation of the IHE Cohort Model of Type 2 Diabetes and the impact of choice of macrovascular risk equations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Lundqvist

    Full Text Available Health-economic models of diabetes are complex since the disease is chronic, progressive and there are many diabetic complications. External validation of these models helps building trust and satisfies demands from decision makers. We evaluated the external validity of the IHE Cohort Model of Type 2 Diabetes; the impact of using alternative macrovascular risk equations; and compared the results to those from microsimulation models.The external validity of the model was analysed from 12 clinical trials and observational studies by comparing 167 predicted microvascular, macrovascular and mortality outcomes to the observed study outcomes. Concordance was examined using visual inspection of scatterplots and regression-based analysis, where an intercept of 0 and a slope of 1 indicate perfect concordance. Additional subgroup analyses were conducted on 'dependent' vs. 'independent' endpoints and microvascular vs. macrovascular vs. mortality endpoints.Visual inspection indicates that the model predicts outcomes well. The UKPDS-OM1 equations showed almost perfect concordance with observed values (slope 0.996, whereas Swedish NDR (0.952 and UKPDS-OM2 (0.899 had a slight tendency to underestimate. The R2 values were uniformly high (>0.96. There were no major differences between 'dependent' and 'independent' outcomes, nor for microvascular and mortality outcomes. Macrovascular outcomes tended to be underestimated, most so for UKPDS-OM2 and least so for NDR risk equations.External validation indicates that the IHE Cohort Model of Type 2 Diabetes has predictive accuracy in line with microsimulation models, indicating that the trade-off in accuracy using cohort simulation might not be that large. While the choice of risk equations was seen to matter, each were associated with generally reasonable results, indicating that the choice must reflect the specifics of the application. The largest variation was observed for macrovascular outcomes. There, NDR

  20. Towards a model of source and channel choices in business-to-government service interactions : A structural equation modeling approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Boer, Yvon; Pieterson, Willem; Arendsen, Rex; van Dijk, Jan

    With a growing number of available communication channels and the increasing role of other information sources, organizations are urged to rethink their service strategies. Most theories are limited to a one-dimensional focus on source or channel choice and do not fit into today's networked