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Sample records for technology choice model

  1. Stochastic Technology Choice Model for Consequential Life Cycle Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kätelhön, Arne; Bardow, André; Suh, Sangwon

    2016-12-06

    Discussions on Consequential Life Cycle Assessment (CLCA) have relied largely on partial or general equilibrium models. Such models are useful for integrating market effects into CLCA, but also have well-recognized limitations such as the poor granularity of the sectoral definition and the assumption of perfect oversight by all economic agents. Building on the Rectangular-Choice-of-Technology (RCOT) model, this study proposes a new modeling approach for CLCA, the Technology Choice Model (TCM). In this approach, the RCOT model is adapted for its use in CLCA and extended to incorporate parameter uncertainties and suboptimal decisions due to market imperfections and information asymmetry in a stochastic setting. In a case study on rice production, we demonstrate that the proposed approach allows modeling of complex production technology mixes and their expected environmental outcomes under uncertainty, at a high level of detail. Incorporating the effect of production constraints, uncertainty, and suboptimal decisions by economic agents significantly affects technology mixes and associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the system under study. The case study also shows the model's ability to determine both the average and marginal environmental impacts of a product in response to changes in the quantity of final demand.

  2. Mode choice model parameters estimation

    OpenAIRE

    Strnad, Irena

    2010-01-01

    The present work focuses on parameter estimation of two mode choice models: multinomial logit and EVA 2 model, where four different modes and five different trip purposes are taken into account. Mode choice model discusses the behavioral aspect of mode choice making and enables its application to a traffic model. Mode choice model includes mode choice affecting trip factors by using each mode and their relative importance to choice made. When trip factor values are known, it...

  3. Optimal technology choice and investment timing: A stochastic model of industrial cogeneration vs. heat-only production

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wickart, Marcel [Centre for Energy Policy and Economics (CEPE), Department of Management, Technology, and Economics, ETH Zurich, Zurichbergstrasse 18 (ZUE E), 8032 Zurich (Switzerland); Madlener, Reinhard [Centre for Energy Policy and Economics (CEPE), Department of Management, Technology, and Economics, ETH Zurich, Zurichbergstrasse 18 (ZUE E), 8032 Zurich (Switzerland) and DIW Berlin, Department of Information Society and Competition, Koenigin-Luise-Strasse 5, 14195 Berlin (Germany)]. E-mail: rmadlener@ethz.ch

    2007-07-15

    In this paper we develop an economic model that explains the decision-making problem under uncertainty of an industrial firm that wants to invest in a process technology. More specifically, the decision is between making an irreversible investment in a combined heat-and-power production (cogeneration) system, or to invest in a conventional heat-only generation system (steam boiler) and to purchase all electricity from the grid. In our model we include the main economic and technical variables of the investment decision process. We also account for the risk and uncertainty inherent in volatile energy prices that can greatly affect the valuation of the investment project. The dynamic stochastic model presented allows us to simultaneously determine the optimal technology choice and investment timing. We apply the theoretical model and illustrate our main findings with a numerical example that is based on realistic cost values for industrial oil- or gas-fired cogeneration and heat-only generation in Switzerland. We also briefly discuss expected effects of a CO{sub 2} tax on the investment decision.

  4. Social Networks and Choice Set Formation in Discrete Choice Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno Wichmann

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The discrete choice literature has evolved from the analysis of a choice of a single item from a fixed choice set to the incorporation of a vast array of more complex representations of preferences and choice set formation processes into choice models. Modern discrete choice models include rich specifications of heterogeneity, multi-stage processing for choice set determination, dynamics, and other elements. However, discrete choice models still largely represent socially isolated choice processes —individuals are not affected by the preferences of choices of other individuals. There is a developing literature on the impact of social networks on preferences or the utility function in a random utility model but little examination of such processes for choice set formation. There is also emerging evidence in the marketplace of the influence of friends on choice sets and choices. In this paper we develop discrete choice models that incorporate formal social network structures into the choice set formation process in a two-stage random utility framework. We assess models where peers may affect not only the alternatives that individuals consider or include in their choice sets, but also consumption choices. We explore the properties of our models and evaluate the extent of “errors” in assessment of preferences, economic welfare measures and market shares if network effects are present, but are not accounted for in the econometric model. Our results shed light on the importance of the evaluation of peer or network effects on inclusion/exclusion of alternatives in a random utility choice framework.

  5. Approach Choice and Innovative Model Design of Grass-root Agricultural Technology Promotion under the View of New Countryside

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    This paper introduces the approach types of agricultural technology promotion we can choose in the process of new countryside construction, and there are mainly 6 types, namely government-domination-oriented approach, market-development-oriented approach, university (scientific research institution)-education-oriented approach, farmers’ participation-oriented approach, direct-training-oriented approach and individual-service-oriented approach, including 20 models. The problems existing in the grass-root agricultural technology promotion in the process of new village construction are analyzed as follows: the awareness of innovation is not strong; scientific research, education, and promotion are disjointed; the construction of specific work system lags behind; the structure of promotion team is irrational, and the quality of promotion personnel is yet to be promoted; the cultural quality of farmers is low, and the cooperative organizations are not sound; the working conditions are poor, and the basic security is inadequate; the investment channel is simple and the supply amount is badly short; the methods of agricultural technology promotion do not adapt to the requirements of new situation. According to the characteristics and internal requirements of grass-root agricultural technology promotion, we creatively design an overall working model, and put forward new measures from objective of grass-root agricultural technology promotion, service object, service content, organization work and scope, method, role of agricultural technology personnel and so on.

  6. New Route Choice Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Otto Anker

    Artiklen præsenterer og diskuterer forskellige rutevalgsmodeller. Konklusionen er, at der for bytrafik altid bør benyttes modeller, der både er stokastiske og trafikafhængige. Af trafikafhængige modeller er det hidtil kun vist, at Successive Gennemsnits Metode (MSA) er konvergent. Stochastic User...

  7. Alternative fuels and vehicles choice model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greene, D.L. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States). Center for Transportation Analysis

    1994-10-01

    This report describes the theory and implementation of a model of alternative fuel and vehicle choice (AFVC), designed for use with the US Department of Energy`s Alternative Fuels Trade Model (AFTM). The AFTM is a static equilibrium model of the world supply and demand for liquid fuels, encompassing resource production, conversion processes, transportation, and consumption. The AFTM also includes fuel-switching behavior by incorporating multinomial logit-type equations for choice of alternative fuel vehicles and alternative fuels. This allows the model to solve for market shares of vehicles and fuels, as well as for fuel prices and quantities. The AFVC model includes fuel-flexible, bi-fuel, and dedicated fuel vehicles. For multi-fuel vehicles, the choice of fuel is subsumed within the vehicle choice framework, resulting in a nested multinomial logit design. The nesting is shown to be required by the different price elasticities of fuel and vehicle choice. A unique feature of the AFVC is that its parameters are derived directly from the characteristics of alternative fuels and vehicle technologies, together with a few key assumptions about consumer behavior. This not only establishes a direct link between assumptions and model predictions, but facilitates sensitivity testing, as well. The implementation of the AFVC model as a spreadsheet is also described.

  8. Market Integration, Choice of Technology and Welfare

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Jørgen Drud; Nielsen, Jørgen Ulff-Møller

    2010-01-01

    This paper develops an international trade model where firms in a duopoly may diversify their technologies for strategic reasons. The firms face the same set of technologies given by a tradeoff between marginal costs and fixed costs, but depending on trade costs firms may choose different...... technologies. Market integration may induce a technological restructuring where firms either diversify their technologies or switch to a homogeneous technology. In general, market integration improves welfare. However, a small decrease of trade costs which induces a switch from heterogeneous technologies...

  9. Cost-effective fuel and technology choices in the transportation sector in a future carbon constrained world: Results from the Global Energy Transition (GET) model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grahn, Maria

    2009-06-15

    This thesis analyzes future fuel and technology choices focusing on transport in a carbon constrained world. The analysis tool used in all five appended papers is the cost-minimizing Global Energy Transition (GET) model. Paper I analyzes cost-effective fuel and technology choices for passenger vehicles under a variety of vehicle cost-assumptions and how these choices depend on technology paths in the electricity sector. We find that cost estimates as well as the availability of carbon capture and storage technology and concentrating solar power have a substantial impact, ranging from a dominance of hydrogen to a dominance of electricity. Paper II analyzes the cost-effectiveness of biofuels for transportation, assuming that industrialized regions start reducing their CO{sub 2} emissions some decades ahead of developing regions. We find that biofuels may play a more important role for transportation in industrialized regions if these regions assume their responsibilities and reduce emissions before developing regions start reducing theirs, compared to the case in which all countries take action under a global cap and trade emissions reduction regime. Paper III analyzes how policy instruments aimed at increasing the use of biofuels for transportation in industrialized regions affect CO{sub 2} emissions in industrialized and developing regions. We find that such policy instruments may lead to avoided emissions in industrialized regions, especially during the first 50 years, and in a few specific cases in the developing regions, too. However, in the majority of cases, such a biofuels policy leads to increased emissions in the developing regions, i.e., to 'carbon leakage'. Paper IV analyzes why two global energy systems models reach different results on the cost-effectiveness of biofuels, although the models have strong similarities. We find biomass most cost-effectively used for heat production at low CO{sub 2} taxes in both models. Biomass allocation at

  10. Range of technology choices in life cycle assessment of environmental treatment technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, Trine; Astrup, Thomas Fruergaard; Damgaard, Anders

    of specification of the technological and geographical coverage of the study. For example, for global warming potential, the global maximum value is 2.6 times larger than the global minimum value and, for human toxicity, carcinogenic, the global maximum value is 45 times larger than the global minimum value......Limited data availability and local differences of environmental treatment technologies lead to the use of sub-optimal data and choices of single datasets, where multiple data choices may be representative. The use of data not representing the entire coverage of an LCA study can cause a bias....... This conclusions was described in a step-wise approach for representative data choices and modelling. The outcomes shed light on the potential spread caused by discrete data choices in the modelling of environmental treatment technologies....

  11. Mathematical learning instruction and teacher motivation factors affecting science technology engineering and math (STEM) major choices in 4-year colleges and universities: Multilevel structural equation modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ahlam

    2011-12-01

    Using the Educational Longitudinal Study of 2002/06, this study examined the effects of the selected mathematical learning and teacher motivation factors on graduates' science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) related major choices in 4-year colleges and universities, as mediated by math performance and math self-efficacy. Using multilevel structural equation modeling, I analyzed: (1) the association between mathematical learning instruction factors (i.e., computer, individual, and lecture-based learning activities in mathematics) and students' STEM major choices in 4-year colleges and universities as mediated by math performance and math self-efficacy and (2) the association between school factor, teacher motivation and students' STEM major choices in 4-year colleges and universities via mediators of math performance and math self-efficacy. The results revealed that among the selected learning experience factors, computer-based learning activities in math classrooms yielded the most positive effects on math self-efficacy, which significantly predicted the increase in the proportion of students' STEM major choice as mediated by math self-efficacy. Further, when controlling for base-year math Item Response Theory (IRT) scores, a positive relationship between individual-based learning activities in math classrooms and the first follow-up math IRT scores emerged, which related to the high proportion of students' STEM major choices. The results also indicated that individual and lecture-based learning activities in math yielded positive effects on math self-efficacy, which related to STEM major choice. Concerning between-school levels, teacher motivation yielded positive effects on the first follow up math IRT score, when controlling for base year IRT score. The results from this study inform educators, parents, and policy makers on how mathematics instruction can improve student math performance and encourage more students to prepare for STEM careers. Students

  12. Choice-Based Conjoint Analysis: Classification vs. Discrete Choice Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giesen, Joachim; Mueller, Klaus; Taneva, Bilyana; Zolliker, Peter

    Conjoint analysis is a family of techniques that originated in psychology and later became popular in market research. The main objective of conjoint analysis is to measure an individual's or a population's preferences on a class of options that can be described by parameters and their levels. We consider preference data obtained in choice-based conjoint analysis studies, where one observes test persons' choices on small subsets of the options. There are many ways to analyze choice-based conjoint analysis data. Here we discuss the intuition behind a classification based approach, and compare this approach to one based on statistical assumptions (discrete choice models) and to a regression approach. Our comparison on real and synthetic data indicates that the classification approach outperforms the discrete choice models.

  13. Model choice in nonnested families

    CERN Document Server

    Pereira, Basilio de Bragança

    2016-01-01

    This book discusses the problem of model choice when the statistical models are separate, also called nonnested. Chapter 1 provides an introduction, motivating examples and a general overview of the problem. Chapter 2 presents the classical or frequentist approach to the problem as well as several alternative procedures and their properties. Chapter 3 explores the Bayesian approach, the limitations of the classical Bayes factors and the proposed alternative Bayes factors to overcome these limitations. It also discusses a significance Bayesian procedure. Lastly, Chapter 4 examines the pure likelihood approach. Various real-data examples and computer simulations are provided throughout the text.

  14. Consumer Vehicle Choice Model Documentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Changzheng [ORNL; Greene, David L [ORNL

    2012-08-01

    In response to the Fuel Economy and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions standards, automobile manufacturers will need to adopt new technologies to improve the fuel economy of their vehicles and to reduce the overall GHG emissions of their fleets. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has developed the Optimization Model for reducing GHGs from Automobiles (OMEGA) to estimate the costs and benefits of meeting GHG emission standards through different technology packages. However, the model does not simulate the impact that increased technology costs will have on vehicle sales or on consumer surplus. As the model documentation states, “While OMEGA incorporates functions which generally minimize the cost of meeting a specified carbon dioxide (CO2) target, it is not an economic simulation model which adjusts vehicle sales in response to the cost of the technology added to each vehicle.” Changes in the mix of vehicles sold, caused by the costs and benefits of added fuel economy technologies, could make it easier or more difficult for manufacturers to meet fuel economy and emissions standards, and impacts on consumer surplus could raise the costs or augment the benefits of the standards. Because the OMEGA model does not presently estimate such impacts, the EPA is investigating the feasibility of developing an adjunct to the OMEGA model to make such estimates. This project is an effort to develop and test a candidate model. The project statement of work spells out the key functional requirements for the new model.

  15. CHOICE OF MATERIAL AND MANUFACTURING TECHNOLOGY OF CASTING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. I. Kupriyanova

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available As a result of the carried out work abundant type of steel was chosen for casting production of asterisk of the excavator «Kamatsu». This type of steel is widely used as the wearproof steel working in the conditions of abrasive and shock – abrasive wear. Mathematical modeling of process of filling and hardening of casting was done and it confirmed a choice of the technology to produce casting without faulty parts.

  16. Disagreements, Employee spinoffs and the Choice of Technology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thompson, Peter; Chen, Jing

    2011-01-01

    Most existing models of employee spinoffs assume they are driven by a desire to implement new ideas. However, history is replete with examples of spinoffs that were launched to continue with old ideas that their parents were in the process of abandoning. We develop a model of technology choice...... in which spinoffs may form to implement new or old technologies. A team of managers engaged in production using technology x, is considering switching to technology y. The value of y is not known and disagreements may emerge among team members. Managers who develop sufficiently strong disagreements...... with their colleagues choose to form new companies to implement their preferred strategy. Two distinct classes of spinoffs arise. In the first, a spinoff forms when an employee comes to believe it is worth adopting y but the firm does not. In the second, a spinoff arises when an employee sufficiently disagrees...

  17. Employment protection, technology choice, and worker allocation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bartelsman, E.J.; Gautier, P.A.; de Wind, J.

    2011-01-01

    We show empirically that high-risk innovative sectors are relatively small in countries with strict employment protection legislation (EPL). To understand the mechanism, we develop a two-sector matching model where firms endogenously choose between safe and risky technology. Simulations with our

  18. Socioeconomic constraints on the technological choices in rural sewage treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Baojing; Fan, Liangcong; Ying, Zechun; Xu, Qingshan; Luo, Weidong; Ge, Ying; Scott, Steffanie; Chang, Jie

    2016-10-01

    Technological innovation is one of the potential engines to mitigate environmental pollution. However, the implementation of new technologies sometimes fails owing to socioeconomic constraints from different stakeholders. Thus, it is essential to analyze constraints of environmental technologies in order to build a pathway for their implementation. In this study, taking three technologies on rural sewage treatment in Hangzhou, China as a case study, i.e., wastewater treatment plant (WTP), constructed wetland (CW), and biogas system, we analyzed how socioeconomic constraints affect the technological choices. Results showed that socioeconomic constraints play a key role through changing the relative opportunity cost of inputs from government as compared to that of residents to deliver the public good-sewage treatment-under different economic levels. Economic level determines the technological choice, and the preferred sewage treatment technologies change from biogas system to CW and further to WTP along with the increase of economic level. Mismatch of technological choice and economic level results in failures of rural sewage treatment, e.g., the CW only work well in moderately developed regions in Hangzhou. This finding expands the environmental Kuznets law by introducing the coproduction theory into analysis (i.e., inputs from both government and residents are essential for the delivery of public goods and services such as good environmental quality). A match between technology and socioeconomic conditions is essential to the environmental governance.

  19. TAFV Alternative Fuels and Vehicles Choice Model Documentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greene, D.L.

    2001-07-27

    A model for predicting choice of alternative fuel and among alternative vehicle technologies for light-duty motor vehicles is derived. The nested multinomial logit (NML) mathematical framework is used. Calibration of the model is based on information in the existing literature and deduction based on assuming a small number of key parameters, such as the value of time and discount rates. A spreadsheet model has been developed for calibration and preliminary testing of the model.

  20. Parameter Estimation for Thurstone Choice Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vojnovic, Milan [London School of Economics (United Kingdom); Yun, Seyoung [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-04-24

    We consider the estimation accuracy of individual strength parameters of a Thurstone choice model when each input observation consists of a choice of one item from a set of two or more items (so called top-1 lists). This model accommodates the well-known choice models such as the Luce choice model for comparison sets of two or more items and the Bradley-Terry model for pair comparisons. We provide a tight characterization of the mean squared error of the maximum likelihood parameter estimator. We also provide similar characterizations for parameter estimators defined by a rank-breaking method, which amounts to deducing one or more pair comparisons from a comparison of two or more items, assuming independence of these pair comparisons, and maximizing a likelihood function derived under these assumptions. We also consider a related binary classification problem where each individual parameter takes value from a set of two possible values and the goal is to correctly classify all items within a prescribed classification error. The results of this paper shed light on how the parameter estimation accuracy depends on given Thurstone choice model and the structure of comparison sets. In particular, we found that for unbiased input comparison sets of a given cardinality, when in expectation each comparison set of given cardinality occurs the same number of times, for a broad class of Thurstone choice models, the mean squared error decreases with the cardinality of comparison sets, but only marginally according to a diminishing returns relation. On the other hand, we found that there exist Thurstone choice models for which the mean squared error of the maximum likelihood parameter estimator can decrease much faster with the cardinality of comparison sets. We report empirical evaluation of some claims and key parameters revealed by theory using both synthetic and real-world input data from some popular sport competitions and online labor platforms.

  1. MULTINOMINAL LOGIT MODEL OF BICYCLIST ROUTE CHOICE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Chernyshova

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the multinominal logit discrete choice model that allows determining parameters coefficients of the cyclists’ route. The basic model includes six parameters, however, only a number of signalized intersections, speed of motorized traffic and total physical work required from cyclist prove to be significant factors. The model provides a better understanding about cyclist traffic assignment.

  2. Developing a Model of Occupational Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Egner, Joan Roos

    1974-01-01

    Rational and non-rational decision-making models of occupational choice are described. The Blau model provides an alternative to these. This model contains an occupational set of factors and a set related to the individual. Research supporting its conceptual utility and activities illustrating its pragmatic utility are discussed. (EAK)

  3. A link based network route choice model with unrestricted choice set

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; Frejinger, Emma; Karlstrom, Anders

    2013-01-01

    This paper considers the path choice problem, formulating and discussing an econometric random utility model for the choice of path in a network with no restriction on the choice set. Starting from a dynamic specification of link choices we show that it is equivalent to a static model...... additive. The model is applied to data recording path choices in a network with more than 3000 nodes and 7000 links....

  4. Discrete Choice Models - Estimation of Passenger Traffic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Majken Vildrik

    2003-01-01

    ), which simultaneously finds optimal coefficients values (utility elements) and parameter values (distributed terms) in the utility function. The shape of the distributed terms is specified prior to the estimation; hence, the validity is not tested during the estimation. The proposed method, assesses...... for data, a literature review follows. Models applied for estimation of discrete choice models are described by properties and limitations, and relations between these are established. Model types are grouped into three classes, Hybrid choice models, Tree models and Latent class models. Relations between...... the shape of the distribution from data, by means of repetitive model estimation. In particular, one model was estimated for each sub-sample of data. The shape of distributions is assessed from between model comparisons. This is not to be regarded as an alternative to MSL estimation, rather...

  5. Parental role models, gender and educational choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dryler, H

    1998-09-01

    Parental role models are often put forward as an explanation for the choice of gender-atypical educational routes. This paper aims to test such explanations by examining the impact of family background variables like parental education and occupation, on choice of educational programme at upper secondary school. Using a sample of around 73,000 Swedish teenagers born between 1972 and 1976, girls' and boys' gender-atypical as well as gender-typical educational choices are analysed by means of logistic regression. Parents working or educated within a specific field increase the probability that a child will make a similar choice of educational programme at upper secondary school. This same-sector effect appeared to be somewhat stronger for fathers and sons, while no such same-sex influence was confirmed for girls. No evidence was found that, in addition to a same-sector effect, it matters whether parents' occupations represent gender-traditional or non-traditional models. Parents of the service classes or highly educated parents--expected to be the most gender egalitarian in attitudes and behaviours--have a positive influence upon children's choice of gender-atypical education.

  6. Process and Context in Choice Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ben-Akiva, Moshe; Palma, André de; McFadden, Daniel

    2012-01-01

    We develop a general framework that extends choice models by including an explicit representation of the process and context of decision making. Process refers to the steps involved in decision making. Context refers to factors affecting the process, focusing in this paper on social networks. The...

  7. Airport choice model in multiple airport regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Muñoz

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: This study aims to analyze travel choices made by air transportation users in multi airport regions because it is a crucial component when planning passenger redistribution policies. The purpose of this study is to find a utility function which makes it possible to know the variables that influence users’ choice of the airports on routes to the main cities in the Colombian territory. Design/methodology/approach: This research generates a Multinomial Logit Model (MNL, which is based on the theory of maximizing utility, and it is based on the data obtained on revealed and stated preference surveys applied to users who reside in the metropolitan area of Aburrá Valley (Colombia. This zone is the only one in the Colombian territory which has two neighboring airports for domestic flights. The airports included in the modeling process were Enrique Olaya Herrera (EOH Airport and José María Córdova (JMC Airport. Several structure models were tested, and the MNL proved to be the most significant revealing the common variables that affect passenger airport choice include the airfare, the price to travel the airport, and the time to get to the airport. Findings and Originality/value: The airport choice model which was calibrated corresponds to a valid powerful tool used to calculate the probability of each analyzed airport of being chosen for domestic flights in the Colombian territory. This is done bearing in mind specific characteristic of each of the attributes contained in the utility function. In addition, these probabilities will be used to calculate future market shares of the two airports considered in this study, and this will be done generating a support tool for airport and airline marketing policies.

  8. AHP choice in cocoa post-harvest technology for small-scale farmers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lenin Vera-Montenegro

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Ensuring that the post-harvest process yields good quality cocoa is a relevant research question. However, the literature currently lacks detailed studies of producers’ criteria for post-harvest technology selection. There is therefore a need for research that examines technology choice based on several criteria. This is the aim of our paper. We defined a cocoa post-harvest technology selection model to assist small producers in Ecuador. To do so, we employed the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP to assess the following criteria: quality, processing cost and technology adoption capability. By considering only quality, we first performed a preliminary assessment of nine post-harvest technologies yielded by all possible combinations of fermentation and drying methods. Under the criterion “quality”, results show that no post-harvest technology is preferable to another. This implies that quality differences between producers do not derive from technology choice but rather from the rigour with which producers perform fermentation and drying processes. After adding the criteria “processing cost” and “technology adoption capability”, we performed the analysis again. This multi-criteria approach offered a better way to approximate small farmers’ real needs when selecting technology for cocoa post-harvest. Although quality was the highest-valued criterion, high scores attributed to some technologies in the other two criteria offset scores for quality. Thus, processing cost and technology adoption also emerged as relevant factors for small holders.

  9. Meta-analysis of choice set generation effects on route choice model estimates and predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    Large scale applications of behaviorally realistic transport models pose several challenges to transport modelers on both the demand and the supply sides. On the supply side, path-based solutions to the user assignment equilibrium problem help modelers in enhancing the route choice behavior...... modeling, but require them to generate choice sets by selecting a path generation technique and its parameters according to personal judgments. This paper proposes a methodology and an experimental setting to provide general indications about objective judgments for an effective route choice set generation....... Initially, path generation techniques are implemented within a synthetic network to generate possible subjective choice sets considered by travelers. Next, ‘true model estimates’ and ‘postulated predicted routes’ are assumed from the simulation of a route choice model. Then, objective choice sets...

  10. Model for understanding consumer textural food choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeltema, Melissa; Beckley, Jacqueline; Vahalik, Jennifer

    2015-05-01

    The current paradigm for developing products that will match the marketing messaging is flawed because the drivers of product choice and satisfaction based on texture are misunderstood. Qualitative research across 10 years has led to the thesis explored in this research that individuals have a preferred way to manipulate food in their mouths (i.e., mouth behavior) and that this behavior is a major driver of food choice, satisfaction, and the desire to repurchase. Texture, which is currently thought to be a major driver of product choice, is a secondary factor, and is important only in that it supports the primary driver-mouth behavior. A model for mouth behavior is proposed and the qualitative research supporting the identification of different mouth behaviors is presented. The development of a trademarked typing tool for characterizing mouth behavior is described along with quantitative substantiation of the tool's ability to group individuals by mouth behavior. The use of these four groups to understand textural preferences and the implications for a variety of areas including product design and weight management are explored.

  11. Forecasting the innovation and technology based economic development as a component of the choice of anti-crisis strategy

    OpenAIRE

    L. Fedulova

    2009-01-01

    The author reveals the role of the technology factor in crisis situations and justifies the significance of the mechanisms of technological forecasting in the choice of strategic guidelines of a country's development. She proposes a conceptual model of the system of scientifico-technological forecasting and shows its place in the innovation based renewal of economic activities.

  12. Forecasting the innovation and technology based economic development as a component of the choice of anti-crisis strategy

    OpenAIRE

    L. Fedulova

    2009-01-01

    The author reveals the role of the technology factor in crisis situations and justifies the significance of the mechanisms of technological forecasting in the choice of strategic guidelines of a country's development. She proposes a conceptual model of the system of scientifico-technological forecasting and shows its place in the innovation based renewal of economic activities.

  13. Towards Analytical Modeling for Persuasive Design Choices in Mobile Apps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamid Mukhtar

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Persuasive technology has emerged as a new field of research in the past decade with its applications in various domains including web-designing, human-computer interaction, healthcare systems, and social networks. Although persuasive technology has its roots in psychology and cognitive sciences, researchers from the computing disciplines are also increasingly interested in it. Unfortunately, the existing theories, models, and frameworks for persuasive system design fall short due to absence of systematic design processes mostly used in the computing domains as well as lack of support for appropriate post-analysis. This work provides some insight into such limitations and identifies the importance of analytical modeling for persuasion in mobile applications design. The authors illustrate, using a case study, that appropriate mathematical models can be applied together with user modeling to develop a persuasive system that will allow the designer to consider several design choices simultaneously.

  14. An Analysis of the Impact of Student-Scientist Interaction in a Technology Design Activity, Using the Expectancy-Value Model of Achievement Related Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masson, Anne-Lotte; Klop, Tanja; Osseweijer, Patricia

    2016-01-01

    Many education initiatives in science and technology education aim to create enthusiasm among young people to pursue a career in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM). Research suggests that personal interaction between secondary school students and scientists could be a success factor, but there is a need for more in-depth…

  15. An Analysis of the Impact of Student-Scientist Interaction in a Technology Design Activity, Using the Expectancy-Value Model of Achievement Related Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masson, Anne-Lotte; Klop, Tanja; Osseweijer, Patricia

    2016-01-01

    Many education initiatives in science and technology education aim to create enthusiasm among young people to pursue a career in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM). Research suggests that personal interaction between secondary school students and scientists could be a success factor, but there is a need for more in-depth…

  16. Adopt or Adapt: Sanitation Technology Choices in Urbanizing Malawi.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chunga, Richard M; Ensink, Jeroen H J; Jenkins, Marion W; Brown, Joe

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents the results of a mixed-methods study examining adaptation strategies that property owners in low-income, rapidly urbanizing areas in Malawi adopt to address the limitations of pit latrines, the most common method of disposing human excreta. A particular challenge is lack of space for constructing new latrines as population density increases: traditional practice has been to cap full pits and simply move to a new site, but increasing demands on space require new approaches to extend the service life of latrines. In this context, we collected data on sanitation technology choices from January to September 2013 through 48 in-depth interviews and a stated preference survey targeting 1,300 property owners from 27 low-income urban areas. Results showed that property owners with concern about space for replacing pit latrines were 1.8 times more likely to select pit emptying service over the construction of new pit latrines with a slab floor (p = 0.02) but there was no significant association between concern about space for replacing pit latrines and intention to adopt locally promoted, novel sanitation technology known as ecological sanitation (ecosan). Property owners preferred to adapt existing, known technology by constructing replacement pit latrines on old pit latrine locations, reducing the frequency of replacing pit latrines, or via emptying pit latrines when full. This study highlights potential challenges to adoption of wholly new sanitation technologies, even when they present clear advantages to end users. To scale, alternative sanitation technologies for rapidly urbanising cities should offer clear advantages, be affordable, be easy to use when shared among multiple households, and their design should be informed by existing adaptation strategies and local knowledge.

  17. Behavioural Models for Route Choice of Passengers in Multimodal Public Transport Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Anderson, Marie Karen

    The subject of this thesis is behavioural models for route choice of passengers in multimodal public transport networks. While research in sustainable transport has dedicated much attention toward the determinants of choice between car and sustainable travel options, it has devoted less attention...... in the estimation of route choice models of public transport users based upon observed choices. Public transport route choice models have not benefitted from the same technological enhancements as car models because of the necessity (i) to collect additional information concerning lines and transfers, and (ii......) to overcome technical limitations related to GPS signals not always being retrievable in tunnels that are used by metro and urban rail systems. In this PhD project, a questionnaire to collect details about the actual route choice behaviour in public transport networks was developed and tested in a full scale...

  18. Understanding student participation and choice in science and technology education

    CERN Document Server

    Dillon, Justin; Ryder, Jim

    2015-01-01

    Drawing on data generated by the EU’s Interests and Recruitment in Science (IRIS) project, this volume examines the issue of young people’s participation in science, technology, engineering and mathematics education. With an especial focus on female participation, the chapters offer analysis deploying varied theoretical frameworks, including sociology, social psychology and gender studies. The material also includes reviews of relevant research in science education and summaries of empirical data concerning student choices in STEM disciplines in five European countries. Featuring both quantitative and qualitative analyses, the book makes a substantial contribution to the developing theoretical agenda in STEM education. It augments available empirical data and identifies strategies in policy-making that could lead to improved participation—and gender balance—in STEM disciplines. The majority of the chapter authors are IRIS project members, with additional chapters written by specially invited contribu...

  19. Malpractice liability, technology choice and negative defensive medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feess, Eberhard

    2012-04-01

    We extend the theoretical literature on the impact of malpractice liability by allowing for two treatment technologies, a safe and a risky one. The safe technology bears no failure risk, but leads to patient-specific disutility since it cannot completely solve the health problems. By contrast, the risky technology (for instance a surgery) may entirely cure patients, but fail with some probability depending on the hospital's care level. Tight malpractice liability increases care levels if the risky technology is chosen at all, but also leads to excessively high incentives for avoiding the liability exposure by adopting the safe technology. We refer to this distortion toward the safe technology as negative defensive medicine. Taking the problem of negative defensive medicine seriously, the second best optimal liability needs to balance between the over-incentive for the safe technology in case of tough liability and the incentive to adopt little care for the risky technology in case of weak liability. In a model with errors in court, we find that gross negligence where hospitals are held liable only for very low care levels outperforms standard negligence, even though standard negligence would implement the first best efficient care level.

  20. The Stay/Switch Model of Concurrent Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacDonall, James S.

    2009-01-01

    This experiment compared descriptions of concurrent choice by the stay/switch model, which says choice is a function of the reinforcers obtained for staying at and for switching from each alternative, and the generalized matching law, which says choice is a function of the total reinforcers obtained at each alternative. For the stay/switch model…

  1. Estimating hybrid choice models with the new version of Biogeme

    OpenAIRE

    Bierlaire, Michel

    2010-01-01

    Hybrid choice models integrate many types of discrete choice modeling methods, including latent classes and latent variables, in order to capture concepts such as perceptions, attitudes, preferences, and motivatio (Ben-Akiva et al., 2002). Although they provide an excellent framework to capture complex behavior patterns, their use in applications remains rare in the literature due to the difficulty of estimating the models. In this talk, we provide a short introduction to hybrid choice model...

  2. Evolutionary Model of Cleaner Production Technologies under Product Competition and Consumer Choice%产品竞争与顾客选择下的清洁生产技术演化模型

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘小峰; 盛昭瀚; 杜建国

    2013-01-01

    It is difficult to practically apply clean production technologies , which is considered as an important way of sustainable development.Adopting the method of computational experiments to study the impact of product competition and consumer choice on the evolution of cleaner production technologies , the study focuses on the cleaner production technologies of products with con-stant returns to scale.And this study sets rules of adaptive behaviors of producers and consumers , product trading and technology selection to build the model of the evolution of cleaner production technologies under product competition and consumer choice . We also explore issues such as system diversity , evolution, agent behavior and initial sensitivity in different scenarios by the method of multi-agent simulation on computer.The results shows that: ①diversity of system evolution is obvious and evolution trajectories reveal that being overly dependent on free competition of market cannot ensure the improvement of product quality and environment level;and ②too much introduction of cleaner production technologies tends to damage the benefits of traditional technology adaptors.The computational experiment results also indicate that the customer′s consumer behavior preferences influ-ence technology evolution system .It is very difficult for products of traditional technology to enter to a mature market with high environmental protection consciousness , while cleaner products have opportunities to obtain certain market share in a market with less environmental protection consciousness .%清洁生产技术是可持续发展的重要途径,却难以在实践中推广。采用计算实验方法研究产品竞争和顾客选择对清洁生产技术演化的影响,聚焦规模报酬不变型产品的清洁生产技术,设定生产者和消费者的适应性规则、产品交易和技术选择规则,构建产品竞争与顾客选择下的清洁生产技术演化模型。通过多主

  3. A nested recursive logit model for route choice analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mai, Tien; Frejinger, Emma; Fosgerau, Mogens

    2015-01-01

    We propose a route choice model that relaxes the independence from irrelevant alternatives property of the logit model by allowing scale parameters to be link specific. Similar to the recursive logit (RL) model proposed by Fosgerau et al. (2013), the choice of path is modeled as a sequence of link...

  4. A nested recursive logit model for route choice analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mai, Tien; Frejinger, Emma; Fosgerau, Mogens

    2015-01-01

    We propose a route choice model that relaxes the independence from irrelevant alternatives property of the logit model by allowing scale parameters to be link specific. Similar to the recursive logit (RL) model proposed by Fosgerau et al. (2013), the choice of path is modeled as a sequence of link...

  5. Rationality in a general model of choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Somdeb Lahiri

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we consider choice correspondences which may be empty-valued. We study conditions under which such choice correspondences are rational, transitively rational, partially rational, partially almost transitive rational, partially almost quasi-transitive rational. This provides fresh impetus and understanding of multi-criteria decision making.

  6. A practical test for the choice of mixing distribution in discrete choice models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; Bierlaire, Michel

    2007-01-01

    The choice of a specific distribution for random parameters of discrete choice models is a critical issue in transportation analysis. Indeed, various pieces of research have demonstrated that an inappropriate choice of the distribution may lead to serious bias in model forecast and in the estimated...... means of random parameters. In this paper, we propose a practical test, based on seminonparametric techniques. The test is analyzed both on synthetic and real data, and is shown to be simple and powerful. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved....

  7. Harvest choice and timber supply models for forest forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maksym Polyakov; David N Wear

    2010-01-01

    Timber supply has traditionally been modeled using aggregate data, whereas individual harvest choices have been shown to be sensitive to the vintage and condition of forest capital stocks. In this article, we build aggregate supply models for four roundwood products in a seven-state region of the US South directly from stand-level harvest choice models applied to...

  8. Technology choices for the Integrated Beam Experiment (IBX)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leitner, M.A.; Celata, C.M.; Lee, E.P.; Sabbi, G.; Waldron, W.L.; Barnard, J.J.

    2002-10-31

    Over the next three years the research program of the Heavy Ion Fusion Virtual National Laboratory (HIF-VNL), a collaboration among LBNL, LLNL, and PPPL, is focused on separate scientific experiments in the injection, transport and focusing of intense heavy ion beams at currents from 100 mA to 1 A. As a next major step in the HIF-VNL program, we aim for a complete ''source-to-target'' experiment, the Integrated Beam Experiment (IBX). By combining the experience gained in the current separate beam experiments IBX would allow the integrated scientific study of the evolution of a single heavy ion beam at high current ({approx}1 A) through all sections of a possible heavy ion fusion accelerator: the injection, acceleration, compression, and beam focusing. This paper describes the main parameters and technology choices of the planned IBX experiment. IBX will accelerate singly charged potassium or argon ion beams up to 10 MeV final energy and a longitudinal beam compression ratio of 10, resulting in a beam current at target of more than 10 Amperes. Different accelerator cell design options are described in detail: Induction cores incorporating either room temperature pulsed focusing-magnets or superconducting magnets.

  9. A Neurocomputational Model of Altruistic Choice and Its Implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutcherson, Cendri A; Bushong, Benjamin; Rangel, Antonio

    2015-07-15

    We propose a neurocomputational model of altruistic choice and test it using behavioral and fMRI data from a task in which subjects make choices between real monetary prizes for themselves and another. We show that a multi-attribute drift-diffusion model, in which choice results from accumulation of a relative value signal that linearly weights payoffs for self and other, captures key patterns of choice, reaction time, and neural response in ventral striatum, temporoparietal junction, and ventromedial prefrontal cortex. The model generates several novel insights into the nature of altruism. It explains when and why generous choices are slower or faster than selfish choices, and why they produce greater response in TPJ and vmPFC, without invoking competition between automatic and deliberative processes or reward value for generosity. It also predicts that when one's own payoffs are valued more than others', some generous acts may reflect mistakes rather than genuinely pro-social preferences.

  10. Hybrid Compensatory-Noncompensatory Choice Sets in Semicompensatory Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Bekhor, Shlomo; Shiftan, Yoram

    2013-01-01

    by a mathematical model that combines multinomial-response and ordered-response thresholds with a utility-based choice. The proposed model is applied to a stated preference experiment of off-campus rental apartment choices by students. Results demonstrate the applicability and feasibility of incorporating...

  11. Children's Conceptions of Career Choice and Attainment: Model Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, Kimberly A. S.; Walsh, Mary E.

    2011-01-01

    This article describes a model of children's conceptions of two key career development processes: career choice and career attainment. The model of children's understanding of career choice and attainment was constructed with developmental research and theory into children's understanding of allied phenomena such as their understanding of illness,…

  12. Estimation of an Occupational Choice Model when Occupations Are Misclassified

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, Paul

    2009-01-01

    This paper develops an empirical occupational choice model that corrects for misclassification in occupational choices and measurement error in occupation-specific work experience. The model is used to estimate the extent of measurement error in occupation data and quantify the bias that results from ignoring measurement error in occupation codes…

  13. Hyperbolic value addition and general models of animal choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazur, J E

    2001-01-01

    Three mathematical models of choice--the contextual-choice model (R. Grace, 1994), delay-reduction theory (N. Squires & E. Fantino, 1971), and a new model called the hyperbolic value-added model--were compared in their ability to predict the results from a wide variety of experiments with animal subjects. When supplied with 2 or 3 free parameters, all 3 models made fairly accurate predictions for a large set of experiments that used concurrent-chain procedures. One advantage of the hyperbolic value-added model is that it is derived from a simpler model that makes accurate predictions for many experiments using discrete-trial adjusting-delay procedures. Some results favor the hyperbolic value-added model and delay-reduction theory over the contextual-choice model, but more data are needed from choice situations for which the models make distinctly different predictions.

  14. Choices and Changes: Eccles’ Expectancy-Value Model and Upper-Secondary School Students’ Longitudinal Reflections about their Choice of a STEM Education

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lykkegaard, Eva; Ulriksen, Lars

    2016-01-01

    During the past 30 years, Eccles’ comprehensive social-psychological Expectancy-Value Model of Motivated Behavioural Choices (EV-MBC model) has been proven suitable for studying educational choices related to Science, Technology, Engineering and/or Mathematics (STEM). The reflections of 15 students...... could be used to detect significant changes in the students’ educational choice processes. An important finding was that the quantitative EV-MBC surveys and the qualitative interviews gave quite different results concerning the students’ considerations about the choice of tertiary education......, and that significant changes in the students’ reflections were not captured by the factors of the EV-MBC model. This questions the validity of the EVMBC surveys. Moreover, the quantitative factors from the EV-MBC model did not sufficiently explain students’ dynamical educational choice processes where students...

  15. Advanced Nuclear Fuel Cycle Transitions: Optimization, Modeling Choices, and Disruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlsen, Robert W.

    Many nuclear fuel cycle simulators have evolved over time to help understan the nuclear industry/ecosystem at a macroscopic level. Cyclus is one of th first fuel cycle simulators to accommodate larger-scale analysis with it liberal open-source licensing and first-class Linux support. Cyclus also ha features that uniquely enable investigating the effects of modeling choices o fuel cycle simulators and scenarios. This work is divided into thre experiments focusing on optimization, effects of modeling choices, and fue cycle uncertainty. Effective optimization techniques are developed for automatically determinin desirable facility deployment schedules with Cyclus. A novel method fo mapping optimization variables to deployment schedules is developed. Thi allows relationships between reactor types and scenario constraints to b represented implicitly in the variable definitions enabling the usage o optimizers lacking constraint support. It also prevents wasting computationa resources evaluating infeasible deployment schedules. Deployed power capacit over time and deployment of non-reactor facilities are also included a optimization variables There are many fuel cycle simulators built with different combinations o modeling choices. Comparing results between them is often difficult. Cyclus flexibility allows comparing effects of many such modeling choices. Reacto refueling cycle synchronization and inter-facility competition among othe effects are compared in four cases each using combinations of fleet of individually modeled reactors with 1-month or 3-month time steps. There are noticeable differences in results for the different cases. The larges differences occur during periods of constrained reactor fuel availability This and similar work can help improve the quality of fuel cycle analysi generally There is significant uncertainty associated deploying new nuclear technologie such as time-frames for technology availability and the cost of buildin advanced reactors

  16. Technology domains and manpower choice in the restaurant sector

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hjalager, Anne-Mette

    1999-01-01

    Five principal technology domains are identified: ties for management levels only. 1: Technologies that change the concept of time. 2: Technologies that change the flow of materials. 3: Technologies that change the geographical mobility. 4: Technologies that enhance planning., and 5: Technologies...

  17. Comparative study on mode split discrete choice models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xianlong Chen; Xiaoqian Liu; Fazhi Li

    2013-01-01

    Discrete choice model acts as one of the most important tools for studies involving mode split in the context of transport demand forecast. As different types of discrete choice models display their merits and restrictions diversely, how to properly select the specific type among discrete choice models for realistic application still remains to be a tough problem. In this article, five typical discrete choice models for transport mode split are, respectively, discussed, which includes multinomial logit model, nested logit model (NL), heteroscedastic extreme value model, multinominal probit model and mixed multinomial logit model (MMNL). The theoretical basis and application attributes of these five models are especially analysed with great attention, and they are also applied to a realistic intercity case of mode split forecast, which results indi-cating that NL model does well in accommodating simi-larity and heterogeneity across alternatives, while MMNL model serves as the most effective method for mode choice prediction since it shows the highest reliability with the least significant prediction errors and even outperforms the other four models in solving the heterogeneity and similarity problems. This study indicates that conclusions derived from a single discrete choice model are not reli-able, and it is better to choose the proper model based on its characteristics.

  18. ADOPT: A Historically Validated Light Duty Vehicle Consumer Choice Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brooker, A.; Gonder, J.; Lopp, S.; Ward, J.

    2015-05-04

    The Automotive Deployment Option Projection Tool (ADOPT) is a light-duty vehicle consumer choice and stock model supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office. It estimates technology improvement impacts on U.S. light-duty vehicles sales, petroleum use, and greenhouse gas emissions. ADOPT uses techniques from the multinomial logit method and the mixed logit method estimate sales. Specifically, it estimates sales based on the weighted value of key attributes including vehicle price, fuel cost, acceleration, range and usable volume. The average importance of several attributes changes nonlinearly across its range and changes with income. For several attributes, a distribution of importance around the average value is used to represent consumer heterogeneity. The majority of existing vehicle makes, models, and trims are included to fully represent the market. The Corporate Average Fuel Economy regulations are enforced. The sales feed into the ADOPT stock model. It captures key aspects for summing petroleum use and greenhouse gas emissions This includes capturing the change in vehicle miles traveled by vehicle age, the creation of new model options based on the success of existing vehicles, new vehicle option introduction rate limits, and survival rates by vehicle age. ADOPT has been extensively validated with historical sales data. It matches in key dimensions including sales by fuel economy, acceleration, price, vehicle size class, and powertrain across multiple years. A graphical user interface provides easy and efficient use. It manages the inputs, simulation, and results.

  19. Incorporating Context Effects into a Choice Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rooderkerk, Robert P.; Van Heerde, Harald J.; Bijmolt, Tammo H. A.

    The behavioral literature provides ample evidence that consumer preferences are partly driven by the context provided by the set of alternatives. Three important context effects are the compromise, attraction, and similarity effects. Because these context effects affect choices in a systematic and

  20. Incorporating Context Effects into a Choice Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rooderkerk, Robert P.; Van Heerde, Harald J.; Bijmolt, Tammo H. A.

    2011-01-01

    The behavioral literature provides ample evidence that consumer preferences are partly driven by the context provided by the set of alternatives. Three important context effects are the compromise, attraction, and similarity effects. Because these context effects affect choices in a systematic and p

  1. Modeling Departure Time Choice with Stochastic Networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, H.; Bliemer, M.C.J.; Bovy, P.H.L.

    2010-01-01

    Stochastic supply and fluctuating travel demand lead to stochasticity in travel times and travel costs experienced by travelers from time to time within a day and at the same time from day to day. Many studies show that travel time un-reliability has significant impacts on traveler’s choice behavior

  2. Understanding Student Participation and Choice in Science and Technology Education

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ulriksen, Lars; Bøe, Maria Vetleseter

    2015-01-01

    corroborate existing research insights, or explore existing perspectives in new educational contexts or across distinct geographical and cultural settings. In some cases our work challenges prevalent accounts of students’ educational choices. This chapter has five themes: theoretical perspectives; choice......Many of the chapters in this volume provide reviews of the existing research literature. In this chapter we focus on what the research studies presented in this book have contributed to our understanding of students’ educational choices. The nature of these contributions is varied. Many findings...

  3. Choices and Changes: Eccles’ Expectancy-Value Model and Upper-Secondary School Students’ Longitudinal Reflections about their Choice of a STEM Education

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lykkegaard, Eva; Ulriksen, Lars

    2016-01-01

    in their last year in upper-secondary school concerning their choice of tertiary education were examined using quantitative EV-MBC surveys and repeated qualitative interviews. This article presents the analyses of three cases in detail. The analytical focus was whether the factors indicated in the EV-MBC model......During the past 30 years, Eccles’ comprehensive social-psychological Expectancy-Value Model of Motivated Behavioural Choices (EV-MBC model) has been proven suitable for studying educational choices related to Science, Technology, Engineering and/or Mathematics (STEM). The reflections of 15 students...... could be used to detect significant changes in the students’ educational choice processes. An important finding was that the quantitative EV-MBC surveys and the qualitative interviews gave quite different results concerning the students’ considerations about the choice of tertiary education...

  4. Modeling Consideration Sets and Brand Choice Using Artificial Neural Networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B.L.K. Vroomen (Björn); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); J.E.M. van Nierop

    2001-01-01

    textabstractThe concept of consideration sets makes brand choice a two-step process. House-holds first construct a consideration set which not necessarily includes all available brands and conditional on this set they make a final choice. In this paper we put forward a parametric econometric model f

  5. A Simplified Model of Choice Behavior under Uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Lin, Ching-Hung; Lin, Yu-Kai; Song, Tzu-Jiun; Huang, Jong-Tsun; Chiu, Yao-Chu

    2016-01-01

    The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) has been standardized as a clinical assessment tool (Bechara, 2007). Nonetheless, numerous research groups have attempted to modify IGT models to optimize parameters for predicting the choice behavior of normal controls and patients. A decade ago, most researchers considered the expected utility (EU) model (Busemeyer and Stout, 2002) to be the optimal model for predicting choice behavior under uncertainty. However, in recent years, studies have demonstrated that m...

  6. A simplified model of choice behavior under uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Ching-Hung Lin; Yu-Kai Lin; Tzu-Jiun Song; Jong-Tsun Huang; Yao-Chu Chiu

    2016-01-01

    The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) has been standardized as a clinical assessment tool (Bechara, 2007). Nonetheless, numerous research groups have attempted to modify IGT models to optimize parameters for predicting the choice behavior of normal controls and patients. A decade ago, most researchers considered the expected utility (EU) model (Busemeyer and Stout, 2002) to be the optimal model for predicting choice behavior under uncertainty. However, in recent years, studies have demonstrated the pr...

  7. An age structured demographic model of technology

    CERN Document Server

    Mercure, J -F

    2013-01-01

    At the heart of technology transitions lie complex processes of technology choices. Understanding and planning sustainability transitions requires modelling work, which necessitates a theory of technology substitution. A theoretical model of technological change and turnover is presented, intended as a methodological paradigm shift from widely used conventional modelling approaches such as cost optimisation. It follows the tradition of evolutionary economics and evolutionary game theory, using ecological population growth dynamics to represent the evolution of technology populations in the marketplace, with substitutions taking place at the level of the decision-maker. Extended to use principles of human demography or the age structured evolution of species in interacting ecosystems, this theory is built from first principles, and through an appropriate approximation, reduces to a form identical to empirical models of technology diffusion common in the technology transitions literature. Using an age structure...

  8. Net Generation Students: Agency and Choice and the New Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, C.; Healing, G.

    2010-01-01

    Based on research investigating English first-year university students, this paper examined the case made for a new generation of young learners often described as the Net Generation or Digital Natives in terms of agency and choice. Generational arguments set out a case that links young people's attitudes and orientations to their lifelong…

  9. Net Generation Students: Agency and Choice and the New Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, C.; Healing, G.

    2010-01-01

    Based on research investigating English first-year university students, this paper examined the case made for a new generation of young learners often described as the Net Generation or Digital Natives in terms of agency and choice. Generational arguments set out a case that links young people's attitudes and orientations to their lifelong…

  10. Sexual selection under parental choice: a revision to the model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apostolou, Menelaos

    2014-06-01

    Across human cultures, parents exercise considerable influence over their children's mate choices. The model of parental choice provides a good account of these patterns, but its prediction that male parents exercise more control than female ones is not well founded in evolutionary theory. To address this shortcoming, the present article proposes a revision to the model. In particular, parental uncertainty, residual reproductive value, reproductive variance, asymmetry in the control of resources, physical strength, and access to weaponry make control over mating more profitable for male parents than female ones; in turn, this produces an asymmetrical incentive for controlling mate choice. Several implications of this formulation are also explored.

  11. Model Adequacy Checks for Discrete Choice Dynamic Models

    CERN Document Server

    Kheifets, Igor

    2012-01-01

    This paper proposes new parametric model adequacy tests for possibly nonlinear and nonstationary time series models with noncontinuous data distribution, which is often the case in applied work. In particular, we consider the correct specification of parametric conditional distributions in dynamic discrete choice models, not only of some particular conditional characteristics such as moments or symmetry. Knowing the true distribution is important in many circumstances, in particular to apply efficient maximum likelihood methods, obtain consistent estimates of partial effects and appropriate predictions of the probability of future events. We propose a transformation of data which under the true conditional distribution leads to continuous uniform iid series. The uniformity and serial independence of the new series is then examined simultaneously. The transformation can be considered as an extension of the integral transform tool for noncontinuous data. We derive asymptotic properties of such tests taking into...

  12. Choices and changes: Eccles' Expectancy-Value model and upper-secondary school students' longitudinal reflections about their choice of a STEM education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lykkegaard, Eva; Ulriksen, Lars

    2016-03-01

    During the past 30 years, Eccles' comprehensive social-psychological Expectancy-Value Model of Motivated Behavioural Choices (EV-MBC model) has been proven suitable for studying educational choices related to Science, Technology, Engineering and/or Mathematics (STEM). The reflections of 15 students in their last year in upper-secondary school concerning their choice of tertiary education were examined using quantitative EV-MBC surveys and repeated qualitative interviews. This article presents the analyses of three cases in detail. The analytical focus was whether the factors indicated in the EV-MBC model could be used to detect significant changes in the students' educational choice processes. An important finding was that the quantitative EV-MBC surveys and the qualitative interviews gave quite different results concerning the students' considerations about the choice of tertiary education, and that significant changes in the students' reflections were not captured by the factors of the EV-MBC model. This questions the validity of the EV-MBC surveys. Moreover, the quantitative factors from the EV-MBC model did not sufficiently explain students' dynamical educational choice processes where students in parallel considered several different potential educational trajectories. We therefore call for further studies of the EV-MBC model's use in describing longitudinal choice processes and especially in investigating significant changes.

  13. Profile construction in experimental choice designs for mixed logit models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sandor, Z; Wedel, M

    2002-01-01

    A computationally attractive model for the analysis of conjoint choice experiments is the mixed multinomial logit model, a multinomial logit model in which it is assumed that the coefficients follow a (normal) distribution across subjects. This model offers the advantage over the standard

  14. Do Methodological Choices in Environmental Modeling Bias Rebound Effects? A Case Study on Electric Cars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Font Vivanco, David; Tukker, Arnold; Kemp, René

    2016-10-18

    Improvements in resource efficiency often underperform because of rebound effects. Calculations of the size of rebound effects are subject to various types of bias, among which methodological choices have received particular attention. Modellers have primarily focused on choices related to changes in demand, however, choices related to modeling the environmental burdens from such changes have received less attention. In this study, we analyze choices in the environmental assessment methods (life cycle assessment (LCA) and hybrid LCA) and environmental input-output databases (E3IOT, Exiobase and WIOD) used as a source of bias. The analysis is done for a case study on battery electric and hydrogen cars in Europe. The results describe moderate rebound effects for both technologies in the short term. Additionally, long-run scenarios are calculated by simulating the total cost of ownership, which describe notable rebound effect sizes-from 26 to 59% and from 18 to 28%, respectively, depending on the methodological choices-with favorable economic conditions. Relevant sources of bias are found to be related to incomplete background systems, technology assumptions and sectorial aggregation. These findings highlight the importance of the method setup and of sensitivity analyses of choices related to environmental modeling in rebound effect assessments.

  15. A Plug-in Hybrid Consumer Choice Model with Detailed Market Segmentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lin, Zhenhong [ORNL; Greene, David L [ORNL

    2010-01-01

    This paper describes a consumer choice model for projecting U.S. demand for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) in competition among 13 light-duty vehicle technologies over the period 2005-2050. New car buyers are disaggregated by region, residential area, attitude toward technology risk, vehicle usage intensity, home parking and work recharging. The nested multinomial logit (NMNL) model of vehicle choice incorporates daily vehicle usage distributions, refueling and recharging availability, technology learning by doing, and diversity of choice among makes and models. Illustrative results are presented for a Base Case, calibrated to the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2009 Reference Updated Case, and an optimistic technology scenario reflecting achievement of U.S. Department of Energy s (DOE s) FreedomCAR goals. PHEV market success is highly dependent on the degree of technological progress assumed. PHEV sales reach one million in 2037 in the Base Case but in 2020 in the FreedomCARGoals Case. In the FreedomCARGoals Case, PHEV cumulative sales reach 1.5 million by 2015. Together with efficiency improvements in other technologies, petroleum use in 2050 is reduced by about 45% from the 2005 level. After technological progress, PHEV s market success appears to be most sensitive to recharging availability, consumers attitudes toward novel echnologies, and vehicle usage intensity. Successful market penetration of PHEVs helps bring down battery costs for electric vehicles (EVs), resulting in a significant EV market share after 2040.

  16. Technology domains and manpower choice in the restaurant sector

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hjalager, Anne-Mette

    1999-01-01

    uniformly; variations according to enterprise size and type are evident. The ongoing restructuring of the restaurant sector towards larger establishments and more widespread chain afiliation will intensify technology investments and enhance the likely human resource impacts. A rapid labour turnover limits...... the opportunities for staff or their unions to exercise control over technological impacts on work conditions. Lack of stability leads to similar difficulties for owners/managers of restaurants to influence the direction of technological development, a development which is mainly in the hands of suppliers...... that shift processes to and from suppliers. All occupational groups in the restaurant sector are likely to be affected. Most technologies are found to enhance the deskilling of the staff, leaving empowerment opportunites for management levels only. Dissemination of modern technologies does not take place...

  17. Combinatorial Model Involving Stochastic Choices of Destination, Mode and Route

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    Traffic assignment models are one of the basic tools for the analysis and design of transportation systems. However, the existing models have some defects. Considering the characteristics of Chinese urban mixed traffic and the randomness of transportation information, the author develops a combinatorial model involving stochastic choices of destination, mode and route. Its uniqueness and equivalance are also proved by the optimization theory.

  18. Agent-based modelling of consumer energy choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rai, Varun; Henry, Adam Douglas

    2016-06-01

    Strategies to mitigate global climate change should be grounded in a rigorous understanding of energy systems, particularly the factors that drive energy demand. Agent-based modelling (ABM) is a powerful tool for representing the complexities of energy demand, such as social interactions and spatial constraints. Unlike other approaches for modelling energy demand, ABM is not limited to studying perfectly rational agents or to abstracting micro details into system-level equations. Instead, ABM provides the ability to represent behaviours of energy consumers -- such as individual households -- using a range of theories, and to examine how the interaction of heterogeneous agents at the micro-level produces macro outcomes of importance to the global climate, such as the adoption of low-carbon behaviours and technologies over space and time. We provide an overview of ABM work in the area of consumer energy choices, with a focus on identifying specific ways in which ABM can improve understanding of both fundamental scientific and applied aspects of the demand side of energy to aid the design of better policies and programmes. Future research needs for improving the practice of ABM to better understand energy demand are also discussed.

  19. The Effects of Land Use Patterns on Tour Type Choice. The Application of a Hybrid Choice Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    de Abreu e Silva, João; Sottile, Eleonora; Cherchi, Elisabetta

    2014-01-01

    The relations between travel behavior and land use patterns have been the object of intensive research in the last two decades. Due to their immediate policy implications, mode choice and vehicle miles of travel (VMT) have been the main focus of attention. Other relevant dimensions, like trip...... chaining, tour type choice, and number of tours have received less attention. This work aims to contribute to the research dealing with the role of land use patterns on tour type choice. To pursue this objective, a tour type choice is modeled using a hybrid choice model that allows simulating the effect...

  20. Human choice and climate change. Volume 2: Resources and technology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rayner, S.; Malone, E.L.

    1997-12-31

    Foreward: Preface; Introduction; The natural science of global climate change; Land and water use; Coastal zones and oceans; Energy and industry; Energy and social systems; Technological change; and Sponsoring organizations, International Advisory Board, and project participants.

  1. A discussion of mode choice models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Otto Anker

    Artiklen diskuterer matematiske modeller for transportmiddelvalg med særlig fokus på modeller, der bygger på nyttefunktioner. I kapitel 3 refereres til et begrænset eksperiment, der viste at den sædvanlige lineære nyttefunktion ikke er tilstrækkelig til at beskrive selv en meget simpel...... rent fysiologiske be-tragtninger. Artiklen rummer en række anbefalinger vedr. den deterministiske del af nyttefunktionen. Kapitel 5 diskuterer fordelingen af den stokastiske del, og anbefaler brug af probit-modeller for valgsituatio-ner med flere alternativer, der er mere eller mindre indbyrdes...

  2. Street Choice Logit Model for Visitors in Shopping Districts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ko Kawada

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we propose two models for predicting people’s activity. The first model is the pedestrian distribution prediction (or postdiction model by multiple regression analysis using space syntax indices of urban fabric and people distribution data obtained from a field survey. The second model is a street choice model for visitors using multinomial logit model. We performed a questionnaire survey on the field to investigate the strolling routes of 46 visitors and obtained a total of 1211 street choices in their routes. We proposed a utility function, sum of weighted space syntax indices, and other indices, and estimated the parameters for weights on the basis of maximum likelihood. These models consider both street networks, distance from destination, direction of the street choice and other spatial compositions (numbers of pedestrians, cars, shops, and elevation. The first model explains the characteristics of the street where many people tend to walk or stay. The second model explains the mechanism underlying the street choice of visitors and clarifies the differences in the weights of street choice parameters among the various attributes, such as gender, existence of destinations, number of people, etc. For all the attributes considered, the influences of DISTANCE and DIRECTION are strong. On the other hand, the influences of Int.V, SHOPS, CARS, ELEVATION, and WIDTH are different for each attribute. People with defined destinations tend to choose streets that “have more shops, and are wider and lower”. In contrast, people with undefined destinations tend to choose streets of high Int.V. The choice of males is affected by Int.V, SHOPS, WIDTH (positive and CARS (negative. Females prefer streets that have many shops, and couples tend to choose downhill streets. The behavior of individual persons is affected by all variables. The behavior of people visiting in groups is affected by SHOP and WIDTH (positive.

  3. Structural Equation Modeling of Travel Choice Dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Golob, Thomas F.

    1988-01-01

    This research has two objectives. The first objective is to explore the use of the modeling tool called "latent structural equations" (structural equations with latent variables) in the general field of travel behavior analysis and the more specific field of dynamic analysis of travel behavior. The second objective is to apply a latent structural equation model in order to determine the causal relationships between income, car ownership, and mobility. Many transportation researchers ...

  4. Accounting Students’ Choice on Accounting Information Technology Careers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nurul Hasanah Uswati Dewi

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The important role of accounting information systems professionals, motivate researchers to analyze further the interest of students to the profession in the field of accounting information systems. The aim of this study explores the factors that influence students to choose and do not choose a profession in the field of accounting information systems. This research was conducted using questionnaires. The population was undergraduate accounting students. Sample research was done randomly.This research shows that the interest in undergraduate accounting students for a career in the field of information systems is very small and this research also appears that the academic supervisor is one of the dominant factors influencing student choice in choosing a career in the field of information systems. Beside this, this study also found that respondents are not interested in a career in accounting information systems more due to that field of information systems is not a career they aspire.

  5. 寡头垄断企业技术创新模式选择——创新风险与技术类型的影响分析%The Oligarchic Enterprises' Choices of Technological Innovation Models:The Effects of Innovative Risk and Technological Types

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨建君; 聂菁

    2009-01-01

    着重分析了创新风险和技术类型两个影响寡头垄断企业技术创新模式选择的主要因素,并依据这两个因素提出一个综合决策矩阵.该矩阵认为,当进行核心技术创新且风险较小时,倾向于选择自主创新的模式;当进行核心技术创新且风险较大时,倾向于选择研究型合资企业的模式;当进行辅助性技术创新且风险较大时,倾向于选择非股权的合作开发模式;当进行辅助性技术创新且风险较小时,倾向于采取技术创新外包的模式.其中,就研究型合资企业和非股权合作开发模式而言,创新成果给不同企业带来的收益大小可能并不相同,因此这两种创新模式对企业相对优势的影响还需要进一步探讨.%This paper analyses innovative risk and technological types,the two main factors affecting the oligarchic enterprises'choices of technological innovation models and provides a comprehensive decision-making matrix based on these two factors.The matrix shows that oligarchic enterprises will prefer independent innovation in the condition of core technological innovation with a lower risk,prefer research joint venture in the condition of core technological innovation with a higher risk,prefer non-equity co-development in the condition of auxiliary technological innovation with a higher risk and prefer technological innovation outsourcing in the condition of auxiliary technological innovation with a lower risk.While,in the case of research joint venture and non-equity co-development,the two collaboration innovation models,the benefits of innovation to different enterprises may not be the same.Therefore,the effects of these two models on the comparative advantages of the oligarchic enterprises also need to be further explored.

  6. Discrete choice models with multiplicative error terms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; Bierlaire, Michel

    2009-01-01

    differences. We develop some properties of this type of model and show that in several cases the change from an additive to a multiplicative formulation, maintaining a specification of V, may lead to a large improvement in fit, sometimes larger than that gained from introducing random coefficients in V....

  7. The Influence of Role Models on Women's Career Choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quimby, Julie L.; DeSantis, Angela M.

    2006-01-01

    This study of 368 female undergraduates examined self-efficacy and role model influence as predictors of career choice across J. L. Holland's (1997) 6 RIASEC (Realistic, Investigative, Artistic, Social, Enterprising, Conventional) types. Findings showed that levels of self-efficacy and role model influence differed across Holland types. Multiple…

  8. Human choice and climate change. Volume 2: Resources and technology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raynor, S.; Malone, E. [eds.] [Pacific Northwest National Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1998-12-31

    This book is Volume 2 of a four-volume set which assesses social science research that is relevant to global climate change from a wide-ranging interdisciplinary perspective. Attention is focused on resources and technology as they relate to climate change. This series is indispensable reading for scientists and engineers wishing to make an effective contribution to the climate change policy debate.

  9. Modeling Stochastic Route Choice Behaviors with Equivalent Impedance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Li

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A Logit-based route choice model is proposed to address the overlapping and scaling problems in the traditional multinomial Logit model. The nonoverlapping links are defined as a subnetwork, and its equivalent impedance is explicitly calculated in order to simply network analyzing. The overlapping links are repeatedly merged into subnetworks with Logit-based equivalent travel costs. The choice set at each intersection comprises only the virtual equivalent route without overlapping. In order to capture heterogeneity in perception errors of different sizes of networks, different scale parameters are assigned to subnetworks and they are linked to the topological relationships to avoid estimation burden. The proposed model provides an alternative method to model the stochastic route choice behaviors without the overlapping and scaling problems, and it still maintains the simple and closed-form expression from the MNL model. A link-based loading algorithm based on Dial’s algorithm is proposed to obviate route enumeration and it is suitable to be applied on large-scale networks. Finally a comparison between the proposed model and other route choice models is given by numerical examples.

  10. Epistemic Games in Integration: Modeling Resource Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Black, Katrina E.; Wittmann, Michael C.

    2007-11-01

    As part of an ongoing project to understand how mathematics is used in advanced physics to guide one's conceptual understanding of physics, we focus on students' interpretation and use of boundary and initial conditions when solving integrals. We discuss an interaction between two students working on a group quiz problem. After describing the interaction, we briefly discuss the procedural resources that we use to model the students' solutions. We then use the procedural resources introduced earlier to draw resources graphs describing the two epistemic game facets used by the students in our transcript.

  11. Energy Choices. Choices for future technology development; Vaegval Energi. Vaegval foer framtidens teknikutveckling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Billfalk, Lennart; Haegermark, Harald (eds.)

    2009-03-15

    In the next few years political decisions lie ahead in Sweden and the EU regarding the detailed formulation of the EU's so-called 20-20-20 targets and accompanying EU directives. Talks on a new international post-2012 climate agreement are imminent. The EU targets involve reducing emissions of greenhouse gases by 20 per cent, increasing the proportion of renewable energy by 20 per cent and improving energy efficiency by 20 per cent - all by the year 2020. According to the analysis of the consequences of the targets that the Technology Development Group has commissioned, the reduction in carbon dioxide in the stationary energy system in the Nordic region will be 40 per cent, not 20 per cent, if all the EU targets are to be achieved. The biggest socio-economic cost is associated with achieving the efficiency target, followed by the costs associated with achieving the renewable energy target and the CO{sub 2} target. On the basis of this analysis and compilations about technology development, we want to highlight the following important key issues: Does Sweden want to have the option of nuclear power in the future or not? How to choose good policy instruments for new electricity production and networks? How best to reduce the carbon dioxide emissions of the transport sector and how to develop control and incentive measures that promote such a development? We are proposing the following: Carry out a more in-depth analysis of the consequences of the EU targets, so that the policy instruments produce the best combination as regards climate, economy and security of supply. To achieve the EU targets would require large investments in electricity production, particularly renewable energy, and in electricity networks. Internationally harmonized policy instruments and other incentive measures are required in order for the necessary investments to take place. The policy instruments have to provide a level playing field for all players in the energy sector. The large

  12. A Conditioned Model for Choice of Mode Under Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agha Faisal Habib Pathan

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the influence of time and cost information obtained from different sources on choice of mode of Leeds' long distance travellers. The choice of mode was investigated through modal attributes provided by at least two different information sources which might provide contrary or corroborating information rather than on actual attributes. The experiment included telephone administered questionnaire including RP (Revealed Preference questions and an SP (Stated Preference exercise dealing with the choice of modes conditioned by the information received from various sources. Information on travel time and cost was provided from two different information sources for each mode to facilitate the conditioning of mode choice on corroborating/contradictory information. The research employs a wide range of modelling methodologies and examines a range of traditional and newly developed calibration and estimation procedures including Mixed Logit models with individual specific parameters and the newly developed RRM (Random Regret Minimisation framework. The study confirms that the market share of the modes increases when information sources show decreased travel time and cost values and shows that the maximum shares are achieved when different information sources give the same information to the travellers. The study found that pre-trip time information has more influence on mode choice when derived from websites than when derived from other sources. Pre-trip information on costs was, however, less influential when derived from websites than when derived from other sources.

  13. Efficient simulation of diffusion-based choice RT models on CPU and GPU.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdonck, Stijn; Meers, Kristof; Tuerlinckx, Francis

    2016-03-01

    In this paper, we present software for the efficient simulation of a broad class of linear and nonlinear diffusion models for choice RT, using either CPU or graphical processing unit (GPU) technology. The software is readily accessible from the popular scripting languages MATLAB and R (both 64-bit). The speed obtained on a single high-end GPU is comparable to that of a small CPU cluster, bringing standard statistical inference of complex diffusion models to the desktop platform.

  14. Costly innovators versus cheap imitators: a discrete choice model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hommes, C.; Zeppini, P.

    2010-01-01

    Two alternative ways to an innovative product or process are R&D investment or imitation of others’ innovation. In this article we propose a discrete choice model with costly innovators and free imitators and study the endogenous dynamics of price and demand in a market with many firms producing a h

  15. Day-to-day route choice modeling incorporating inertial behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Essen, van M.A.; Rakha, H.; Vreeswijk, J.D.; Wismans, L.J.J.; Berkum, van E.C.

    2015-01-01

    Accurate route choice modeling is one of the most important aspects when predicting the effects of transport policy and dynamic traffic management. Moreover, the effectiveness of intervention measures to a large extent depends on travelers’ response to the changes these measures cause. As a compleme

  16. Differential Role Models and the College Woman's Choice of Major.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Getz, Suzanne Kasper

    A two-part study investigated female college students' preferences for stereotyped or nonstereotyped role models and the relationship of such preferences to the choice of traditional versus nontraditional careers. A total of 211 women students from a mid-Atlantic state university (all the enrolled women) as well as a stratified-by-college…

  17. Medicare Care Choices Model Enables Concurrent Palliative and Curative Care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    On July 20, 2015, the federal Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) announced hospices that have been selected to participate in the Medicare Care Choices Model. Fewer than half of the Medicare beneficiaries use hospice care for which they are eligible. Current Medicare regulations preclude concurrent palliative and curative care. Under the Medicare Choices Model, dually eligible Medicare beneficiaries may elect to receive supportive care services typically provided by hospice while continuing to receive curative services. This report describes how CMS has expanded the model from an originally anticipated 30 Medicare-certified hospices to over 140 Medicare-certified hospices and extended the duration of the model from 3 to 5 years. Medicare-certified hospice programs that will participate in the model are listed.

  18. Overview of the MedAustron design and technology choices

    CERN Document Server

    Benedikt, M; Palm, M; Pirkl, W; Dorda, U; Fabich, A

    2010-01-01

    MedAustron is a synchrotron based accelerator facility for cancer treatment in Austria currently in the development phase. The design is based on the PIMMS study [1] and CNAO [2] synchrotron. In addition to the clinical application, the accelerator will also provide beams for nonclinical research in the fields of medical radiation physics, radiation biology and experimental physics with an extended proton energy range beyond medical requirements to 800 MeV. The differences to others medical acceleratorbased facilities will be elaborated, specifically the used source technologies and configuration (starting up with protons (p) and carbon ions (C6+) allowing a later upgrade to ion species up to neon) and the online verification of all relevant beam parameters. The current project status is presented.

  19. Rational choice theory and Becker's model of random behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krstić Miloš

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available According to rational choice theory, rational consumers tend to maximize utility under a given budget constraints. This will be achieved if they choose a combination of goods that can satisfy their needs and provide the maximum level of utility. Gary Becker, on the other hand, imagines irrational consumers who choose bundle on the budget line. As irrational consumers have an equal probability of choosing any bundle on the budget line, on average, we expect that they will pick the bundle lying at the midpoint of the line. The results of research in which artificial Becker's agents choose among more than two commodities, rational choice theory is small and more than two budget/price situations show that the percentage of agents whose behavior violate. Adding some factors to Becker's model of random behavior, experimenters can minimize these minor violations. Therefore, rational choice theory is unfalsifiable. The results of our research have confirmed this theory. In addition, in the paper we discussed about explanatory value of rational choice theory in specific circumstances (positive substitution effect and we concluded that the explanatory value of rational choice theory was significantly reduced in specific cases.

  20. A simplified model of choice behavior under uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ching-Hung Lin

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The Iowa Gambling Task (IGT has been standardized as a clinical assessment tool (Bechara, 2007. Nonetheless, numerous research groups have attempted to modify IGT models to optimize parameters for predicting the choice behavior of normal controls and patients. A decade ago, most researchers considered the expected utility (EU model (Busemeyer and Stout, 2002 to be the optimal model for predicting choice behavior under uncertainty. However, in recent years, studies have demonstrated the prospect utility (PU models (Ahn et al., 2008 to be more effective than the EU models in the IGT. Nevertheless, after some preliminary tests, we propose that Ahn et al. (2008 PU model is not optimal due to some incompatible results between our behavioral and modeling data. This study aims to modify Ahn et al. (2008 PU model to a simplified model and collected 145 subjects’ IGT performance as the benchmark data for comparison. In our simplified PU model, the best goodness-of-fit was found mostly while α approaching zero. More specifically, we retested the key parameters α, λ , and A in the PU model. Notably, the power of influence of the parameters α, λ, and A has a hierarchical order in terms of manipulating the goodness-of-fit in the PU model. Additionally, we found that the parameters λ and A may be ineffective when the parameter α is close to zero in the PU model. The present simplified model demonstrated that decision makers mostly adopted the strategy of gain-stay-loss-shift rather than foreseeing the long-term outcome. However, there still have other behavioral variables that are not well revealed under these dynamic uncertainty situations. Therefore, the optimal behavioral models may not have been found. In short, the best model for predicting choice behavior under dynamic-uncertainty situations should be further evaluated.

  1. Binary choices in small and large groups: A unified model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bischi, Gian-Italo; Merlone, Ugo

    2010-02-01

    Two different ways to model the diffusion of alternative choices within a population of individuals in the presence of social externalities are known in the literature. While Galam’s model of rumors spreading considers a majority rule for interactions in several groups, Schelling considers individuals interacting in one large group, with payoff functions that describe how collective choices influence individual preferences. We incorporate these two approaches into a unified general discrete-time dynamic model for studying individual interactions in variously sized groups. We first illustrate how the two original models can be obtained as particular cases of the more general model we propose, then we show how several other situations can be analyzed. The model we propose goes beyond a theoretical exercise as it allows modeling situations which are relevant in economic and social systems. We consider also other aspects such as the propensity to switch choices and the behavioral momentum, and show how they may affect the dynamics of the whole population.

  2. Consumer Choice Prediction: Artificial Neural Networks versus Logistic Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher Gan

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Conventional econometric models, such as discriminant analysis and logistic regression have been used to predict consumer choice. However, in recent years, there has been a growing interest in applying artificial neural networks (ANN to analyse consumer behaviour and to model the consumer decision-making process. The purpose of this paper is to empirically compare the predictive power of the probability neural network (PNN, a special class of neural networks and a MLFN with a logistic model on consumers’ choices between electronic banking and non-electronic banking. Data for this analysis was obtained through a mail survey sent to 1,960 New Zealand households. The questionnaire gathered information on the factors consumers’ use to decide between electronic banking versus non-electronic banking. The factors include service quality dimensions, perceived risk factors, user input factors, price factors, service product characteristics and individual factors. In addition, demographic variables including age, gender, marital status, ethnic background, educational qualification, employment, income and area of residence are considered in the analysis. Empirical results showed that both ANN models (MLFN and PNN exhibit a higher overall percentage correct on consumer choice predictions than the logistic model. Furthermore, the PNN demonstrates to be the best predictive model since it has the highest overall percentage correct and a very low percentage error on both Type I and Type II errors.

  3. Sample selection and taste correlation in discrete choice transport modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mabit, Stefan Lindhard

    2008-01-01

    the question for a broader class of models. It is shown that the original result may be somewhat generalised. Another question investigated is whether mode choice operates as a self-selection mechanism in the estimation of the value of travel time. The results show that self-selection can at least partly...... explain counterintuitive results in value of travel time estimation. However, the results also point at the difficulty of finding suitable instruments for the selection mechanism. Taste heterogeneity is another important aspect of discrete choice modelling. Mixed logit models are designed to capture...... of taste correlation in willingness-to-pay estimation are presented. The first contribution addresses how to incorporate taste correlation in the estimation of the value of travel time for public transport. Given a limited dataset the approach taken is to use theory on the value of travel time as guidance...

  4. Understanding Predisposition in College Choice: Toward an Integrated Model of College Choice and Theory of Reasoned Action

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitre, Paul E.; Johnson, Todd E.; Pitre, Charisse Cowan

    2006-01-01

    This article seeks to improve traditional models of college choice that draw from recruitment and enrollment management paradigms. In adopting a consumer approach to college choice, this article seeks to build upon consumer-related research, which centers on behavior and reasoning. More specifically, this article seeks to move inquiry beyond the…

  5. CHOICE OF TECHNOLOGICAL PARAMETERS FOR PRODUCTION OF WIRE FOR ONBOARD RINGS WITH HEIGHTENED REQUIREMENTS TO ADHESION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. V. Demidov

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The work on choice of the production technology of wire for bead rings of tires with diameter of 12,6 mm providing fulfilment of the customer requirements on size of adhesion and residual covering by rubber is carried out.

  6. Impact of Technology and Feedstock Choice on the Environmental Footprint of Biofuels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, P. B.; Dodder, R. S.

    2012-12-01

    The implementation of the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard program (RFS2) has led to a dramatic shift in the use of biofuel in the U.S. transportation system over the last decade. To satisfy this demand, the production of U.S. corn-based ethanol has grown rapidly, with an average increase of over 25% annually from 2002 to 2010. RFS2 requires a similarly steep increase in the production of advanced biofuels, such as cellulosic ethanol. Unlike corn-based ethanol, which is derived from the biochemical fermentation of sugars in wet and dry mills, it is likely that a more diverse suite of technologies will need to be developed to be able to meet the advanced biofuel RFS2 targets, including biochemical as well as thermochemical (e.g., gasification and pyrolysis) approaches. Rather than relying on energy crops, a potential advantage of thermochemical approaches is the ability to use a wider variety of feedstocks, including municipal solid waste and wood waste. In this work, we conduct a system-level analysis to understand how technology and feedstock choice can impact the environmental footprint of biofuels in the U.S. We use a least-cost optimization model of the U.S. energy system to account for interactions between various components of the energy system: industrial, transportation, electric, and residential/commercial sectors. The model was used to understand the scale of feedstock demand required from dedicated energy crops, as well as other biomass feedstocks, in order to meet the RFS2 mandate. On a regional basis, we compare the overall water-consumption and land requirements for biofuels production given a suite of liquid-fuel production technologies. By considering a range of scenarios, we examine how the use of various feedstocks (e.g., agricultural residues, wood wastes, mill residues and municipal wastes) can be used to off-set environmental impacts as compared to relying solely on energy crops.

  7. Closing the gap between behavior and models in route choice: The role of spatiotemporal constraints and latent traits in choice set formation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    A considerable gap exists between the behavioral paradigm of choice set formation in route choice and its representation in route choice modeling. While travelers form their viable choice set by retaining routes that satisfy spatiotemporal constraints, existing route generation techniques do...... constraint-based choice set formation followed by compensatory choice. The model is applied to data focusing on habitual commuting route choice behavior in morning peak hours. Results show (i) the possibility of inferring spatiotemporal constraints from considered routes, (ii) the importance of incorporating...... spatiotemporal constraints and latent traits in route choice models, and (iii) the linkage between spatiotemporal constraints and time saving, spatial and mnemonic abilities....

  8. Representing hybrid compensatory non-compensatory choice set formation in semi-compensatory models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Bekhor, Shlomo; Shigtan, Yoram

    2012-01-01

    Semi-compensatory models represent a choice process consisting of an elimination-based choice set formation upon satisfying criteria thresholds and a utility-based choice. Current semi-compensatory models assume a purely non-compensatory choice set formation and hence do not support multinomial c...

  9. Robustness of public choice models of voting behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihai UNGUREANU

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Modern economics modeling practice involves highly unrealistic assumptions. Since testing such models is not always an easy enterprise, researchers face the problem of determining whether a result is dependent (or not on the unrealistic details of the model. A solution for this problem is conducting robustness analysis. In its classical form, robustness analysis is a non-empirical method of confirmation – it raises our trust in a given result by implying it with from several different models. In this paper I argue that robustness analysis could be thought as a method of post-empirical failure. This form of robustness analysis involves assigning guilt for the empirical failure to a certain part of the model. Starting from this notion of robustness, I analyze a case of empirical failure from public choice theory or the economic approach of politics. Using the fundamental methodological principles of neoclassical economics, the first model of voting behavior implied that almost no one would vote. This was clearly an empirical failure. Public choice scholars faced the problem of either restraining the domain of their discipline or giving up to some of their neoclassical methodological features. The second solution was chosen and several different models of voting behavior were built. I will treat these models as a case for performing robustness analysis and I will determine which assumption from the original model is guilty for the empirical failure.

  10. Choice certainty in Discrete Choice Experiments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Uggeldahl, Kennet; Jacobsen, Catrine; Lundhede, Thomas Hedemark;

    2016-01-01

    In this study, we conduct a Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE) using eye tracking technology to investigate if eye movements during the completion of choice sets reveal information about respondents’ choice certainty. We hypothesise that the number of times that respondents shift their visual...... attention between the alternatives in a choice set reflects their stated choice certainty. Based on one of the largest samples of eye tracking data in a DCE to date, we find evidence in favor of our hypothesis. We also link eye tracking observations to model-based choice certainty through parameterization...... of the scale function in a random parameters logit model. We find that choices characterized by more frequent gaze shifting do indeed exhibit a higher degree of error variance, however, this effects is insignificant once response time is controlled for. Overall, findings suggest that eye tracking can provide...

  11. THE CHOICE OF CULTIVATION TECHNOLOGY FOR ARCTIC TERRITORIES: COMPARATIVE ANALISYS OF RUSSIAN AND NORWEGIAN EXPERIENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Kozlov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article presents an analysis of the problem of the technology choice for Arctic territories cultivation. The authors regards two alternatives, settlement technology and long-distance commuting. The paper describes two examples of diff erent technologies’ implementation, cases of municipal district Vorkuta (Russian Federation and archipelago Spitsbergen (Norway. Economic analysis of activity of Norwegian and Russian coal-mining companies confirms the higher level of productivity for Norwegian company SNSK. The authors formulated conclusions concerning economic eff ectiveness of settlement technology and long-distance commuting approach on the basis of economic calculations.

  12. Modal choice model for fare-free transit

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kumar, A.; Goss, W.P.

    1977-03-01

    Using travel data collected at the University of Massachusetts during a research and demonstration project sponsored by the Urban Mass Transportation Administration, a disaggregate behavioral-mode choice model has been developed for predicting ridership on fare-free transit systems. The calibrated model suggests that access time to the fare-free transit stop, annual automobile parking fee, auto mode bias constant reflecting the comfort and convenience associated with auto travel, and number of autos available for commuting are the most significant attributes in explaining the mode choice between auto and fare-free transit. For this specific demonstration project, some level-of-service variables, such as the difference between in-vehicle travel time using auto and fare-free transit, auto operating cost, wait time at the fare-free transit stop, and some of the socio-economic attributes of the commuter, such as sex and status, were not found to be as important in affecting the mode choice. 14 references.

  13. Wireless Keypads - A New Classroom Technology Using Enhanced Multiple-Choice Questions

    CERN Document Server

    Burnstein, R A

    2008-01-01

    This article discusses the advantages of using wireless keypads in the Lecture/classroom. This new technology requires multiple-choice (MC) questions to mate with the keypad entry features of these devices. The format of the traditional MC response is constrained to five choices and only one best response is allowed. For this reason, we propose enhancements to the traditional MC question. This enhanced MC question allows as many as ten answers. The answers can vary in their degree of correctness and can be assigned partial credit. By combining wireless keypads and multiple-choice questions, we can readily perform both formative and summative assessments of student learning. Examples and classroom applications are presented.

  14. Renewable generation technology choice and policies in a competitive electricity supply industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarkar, Ashok

    Renewable energy generation technologies have lower externality costs but higher private costs than fossil fuel-based generation. As a result, the choice of renewables in the future generation mix could be affected by the industry's future market-oriented structure because market objectives based on private value judgments may conflict with social policy objectives toward better environmental quality. This research assesses how renewable energy generation choices would be affected in a restructured electricity generation market. A multi-period linear programming-based model (Resource Planning Model) is used to characterize today's electricity supply market in the United States. The model simulates long-range (2000-2020) generation capacity planning and operation decisions under alternative market paradigms. Price-sensitive demand is used to simulate customer preferences in the market. Dynamically changing costs for renewables and a two-step load duration curve are used. A Reference Case represents the benchmark for a socially-optimal diffusion of renewables and a basis for comparing outcomes under alternative market structures. It internalizes externality costs associated with emissions of sulfur dioxide (SOsb2), nitrous oxides (NOsbx), and carbon dioxide (COsb2). A Competitive Case represents a market with many generation suppliers and decision-making based on private costs. Finally, a Market Power Case models the extreme case of market power: monopoly. The results suggest that the share of renewables would decrease (and emissions would increase) considerably in both the Competitive and the Market Power Cases with respect to the Reference Case. The reduction is greater in the Market Power Case due to pricing decisions under existing supply capability. The research evaluates the following environmental policy options that could overcome market failures in achieving an appropriate level of renewable generation: COsb2 emissions tax, SOsb2 emissions cap, renewable

  15. Exploring the Influence of Attitudes to Walking and Cycling on Commute Mode Choice Using a Hybrid Choice Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuan Ding

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Transport-related problems, such as automobile dependence, traffic congestion, and greenhouse emissions, lead to a great burden on the environment. In developing countries like China, in order to improve the air quality, promoting sustainable travel modes to reduce the automobile usage is gradually recognized as an emerging national concern. Though there are many studies related to the physically active modes (e.g., walking and cycling, the research on the influence of attitudes to active modes on travel behavior is limited, especially in China. To fill up this gap, this paper focuses on examining the impact of attitudes to walking and cycling on commute mode choice. Using the survey data collected in China cities, an integrated discrete choice model and the structural equation model are proposed. By applying the hybrid choice model, not only the role of the latent attitude played in travel mode choice, but also the indirect effects of social factors on travel mode choice are obtained. The comparison indicates that the hybrid choice model outperforms the traditional model. This study is expected to provide a better understanding for urban planners on the influential factors of green travel modes.

  16. Simple model for multiple-choice collective decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ching Hua; Lucas, Andrew

    2014-11-01

    We describe a simple model of heterogeneous, interacting agents making decisions between n≥2 discrete choices. For a special class of interactions, our model is the mean field description of random field Potts-like models and is effectively solved by finding the extrema of the average energy E per agent. In these cases, by studying the propagation of decision changes via avalanches, we argue that macroscopic dynamics is well captured by a gradient flow along E. We focus on the permutation symmetric case, where all n choices are (on average) the same, and spontaneous symmetry breaking (SSB) arises purely from cooperative social interactions. As examples, we show that bimodal heterogeneity naturally provides a mechanism for the spontaneous formation of hierarchies between decisions and that SSB is a preferred instability to discontinuous phase transitions between two symmetric points. Beyond the mean field limit, exponentially many stable equilibria emerge when we place this model on a graph of finite mean degree. We conclude with speculation on decision making with persistent collective oscillations. Throughout the paper, we emphasize analogies between methods of solution to our model and common intuition from diverse areas of physics, including statistical physics and electromagnetism.

  17. Guidance on the Choice of Threshold for Binary Forecast Modeling

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    This paper proposes useful guidance on the choice of threshold for binary forecasts. In weather forecast systems, the probabilistic forecast cannot be used directly when estimated too smoothly. In this case, the binary forecast, whether a meteorological event will occur or not, is preferable to the probabilistic forecast.A threshold is needed to generate a binary forecast, and the guidance in this paper encompasses the use of skill scores for the choice of threshold according to the forecast pattern. The forecast pattern consists of distribution modes of estimated probabilities, occurrence rates of observations, and variation modes.This study is performed via Monte-Carlo simulation, with 48 forecast patterns considered. Estimated probabilities are generated by random variate sampling from five distributions separately. Varying the threshold from 0 to 1, binary forecasts are generated by threshold. For the assessment of binary forecast models, a 2×2 contingency table is used and four skill scores (Heidke skill score, hit rate, true skill statistic,and threat score) are compared for each forecast pattern. As a result, guidance on the choice of skill score to find the optimal threshold is proposed.

  18. A family of models for Schelling binary choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavalli, Fausto; Naimzada, Ahmad; Pireddu, Marina

    2016-02-01

    We introduce and study a family of discrete-time dynamical systems to model binary choices based on the framework proposed by Schelling in 1973. The model we propose uses a gradient-like adjustment mechanism by means of a family of smooth maps and allows understanding and analytically studying the phenomena qualitatively described by Schelling. In particular, we investigate existence of steady states and their relation to the equilibria of the static model studied by Schelling, and we analyze local stability, linking several examples and considerations provided by Schelling with bifurcation theory. We provide examples to confirm the theoretical results and to numerically investigate the possible destabilizations, as well as the emergence of coexisting attractors. We show the existence of chaos for a particular example.

  19. Performance and Prediction: Bayesian Modelling of Fallible Choice in Chess

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haworth, Guy; Regan, Ken; di Fatta, Giuseppe

    Evaluating agents in decision-making applications requires assessing their skill and predicting their behaviour. Both are well developed in Poker-like situations, but less so in more complex game and model domains. This paper addresses both tasks by using Bayesian inference in a benchmark space of reference agents. The concepts are explained and demonstrated using the game of chess but the model applies generically to any domain with quantifiable options and fallible choice. Demonstration applications address questions frequently asked by the chess community regarding the stability of the rating scale, the comparison of players of different eras and/or leagues, and controversial incidents possibly involving fraud. The last include alleged under-performance, fabrication of tournament results, and clandestine use of computer advice during competition. Beyond the model world of games, the aim is to improve fallible human performance in complex, high-value tasks.

  20. A model of interacting multiple choices of continuous opinions

    CERN Document Server

    Chou, C -I

    2016-01-01

    We present a model of interacting multiple choices of opinions. At each step of the process, a listener is persuaded by his/her neighbour, the lobbyist, to modify his/her opinion on two different choices of event. Whether or not the listener will be convinced by the lobbyist depends on the difference between his/her opinion with that of the lobbyist, and with that of the revealed social opinion (the social pressure). If the listener is convinced, he/she will modify his/her opinion and update his/her revealed preference, and proceed to persuade his/her next neighbour. If the listener is not convinced by the lobbyist, he/she will retain his/her revealed preference, and try to persuade the lobbyist to change his/her opinion. In this case, the direction of opinion propagation is reversed. A consensus is reached when all the revealed preference is the same. Our numerical results show that consensus can always be attained in this model. However, the time needed to achieve consensus, or the so-called convergence tim...

  1. Modeling Army Applicants’ Job Choices: The Enlisted Personnel Allocation System (EPAS) Simulation Job Choice Model (JCM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-11-01

    http://roso.epfl.ch/biogeme. Greene, W.H. (1990). Econometric analysis. New York: Macmillan Publishing. Hogan, P.F., Esponisa, J., Mackin, P.C...P. Zarembka (Ed.), Frontiers in Econometrics. New York: Academic Press. Simon, H.A. (1955). A behavioral model of rational choice. Quarterly Journal...Diff Ratio Family (E) (A) (A-E) (E/A) Catl -3A CL 2434 0.1070 0.1048 -0.0021 1.0204 CO 2148 0.3512 0.3605 0.0093 0.9741 EL 2256 0.1207 0.1213 0.0006

  2. The probit choice model under sequential search with an application to online retailing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bronnenberg, Bart; Kim, Jun B.; Albuquerque, P.

    2016-01-01

    We develop a probit choice model under optimal sequential search and apply it to the study of aggregate demand of consumer durable goods. In our joint model of search and choice, we derive a semi-closed form expression for the probability of choice that obeys the full set of restrictions imposed by

  3. Gender stereotypes among women engineering and technology students in the UK: lessons from career choice narratives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, Abigail; Dainty, Andrew; Bagilhole, Barbara

    2012-12-01

    In the UK, women remain under-represented in engineering and technology (E&T). Research has, therefore, investigated barriers and solutions to women's recruitment, retention and progression. Recruitment into the sector may be supported by exploring the career decisions of women and men who have chosen to study E&T. Triangulating quantitative and qualitative data from E&T students at a UK university, this paper examines the gendered nature of career choice narratives. It finds that women often maintain contradictory views; upholding gendered stereotypes about women's suitability for the so-called masculine work, yet also subscribing to ideals that the sector is accessible to all who wish to work in it. This is explained using an individualist framework in which women construct an autonomous sense of self, yet are also shaped by a gendered self. Women's discourse around career choice, therefore, reveals the problematic nature of gender norms for achieving gender equity in E&T.

  4. Mode choice model for vulnerable motorcyclists in Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibrahim Sheikh, A K; Radin Umar, R S; Habshah, M; Kassim, H; Stevenson, Mark; Ahmed, Hariza

    2006-06-01

    In developing countries, motorcycle use has grown in popularity in the past decades. Commensurate with this growth is the increase in death and casualties among motorcyclists in these countries. One of the strategic programs to minimize this problem is to reduce motorcyclists exposure by shifting them into safer modes of transport. This study aims to explore the differences in the characteristics of bus and motorcycle users. It identifies the factors contributing to their choice of transport mode and estimates the probability that motorcyclists might change their travel mode to a safer alternative; namely, bus travel. In this article, a survey of 535 motorcycle and bus users was conducted in seven districts of Selangor state, Malaysia. A binary logit model was developed for the two alternative modes, bus and motorcycle. It was found that travel time, travel cost, gender, age, and income level are significant in influencing motorcyclists' mode choice behavior. The probability of motorcycle riders shifting to public transport was also examined based on a scenario of a reduction in bus travel time and travel cost. Reduction of total travel time for the bus mode emerges as the most important element in a program aimed at attracting motorcyclists towards public transport and away from the motorcycle mode.

  5. Educational Technology Funding Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark, Amy E.

    2008-01-01

    Library and cross-disciplinary literature all stress the increasing importance of instructional technology in higher education. However, there is a dearth of articles detailing funding for library instructional technology. The bulk of library literature on funding for these projects focuses on one-time grant opportunities and on the architecture…

  6. Human nonindependent mate choice: is model female attractiveness everything?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vakirtzis, Antonios; Roberts, S Craig

    2012-05-06

    Following two decades of research on non-human animals, there has recently been increased interest in human nonindependent mate choice, namely the ways in which choosing women incorporate information about a man's past or present romantic partners ('model females') into their own assessment of the male. Experimental studies using static facial images have generally found that men receive higher desirability ratings from female raters when presented with attractive (compared to unattractive) model females. This phenomenon has a straightforward evolutionary explanation: the fact that female mate value is more dependent on physical attractiveness compared to male mate value. Furthermore, due to assortative mating for attractiveness, men who are paired with attractive women are more likely to be of high mate value themselves. Here, we also examine the possible relevance of model female cues other than attractiveness (personality and behavioral traits) by presenting video recordings of model females to a set of female raters. The results confirm that the model female's attractiveness is the primary cue. Contrary to some earlier findings in the human and nonhuman literature, we found no evidence that female raters prefer partners of slightly older model females. We conclude by suggesting some promising variations on the present experimental design.

  7. Human Nonindependent Mate Choice: Is Model Female Attractiveness Everything?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonios Vakirtzis

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Following two decades of research on non-human animals, there has recently been increased interest in human nonindependent mate choice, namely the ways in which choosing women incorporate information about a man's past or present romantic partners (‘model females’ into their own assessment of the male. Experimental studies using static facial images have generally found that men receive higher desirability ratings from female raters when presented with attractive (compared to unattractive model females. This phenomenon has a straightforward evolutionary explanation: the fact that female mate value is more dependent on physical attractiveness compared to male mate value. Furthermore, due to assortative mating for attractiveness, men who are paired with attractive women are more likely to be of high mate value themselves. Here, we also examine the possible relevance of model female cues other than attractiveness (personality and behavioral traits by presenting video recordings of model females to a set of female raters. The results confirm that the model female's attractiveness is the primary cue. Contrary to some earlier findings in the human and nonhuman literature, we found no evidence that female raters prefer partners of slightly older model females. We conclude by suggesting some promising variations on the present experimental design.

  8. Alterations in choice behavior by manipulations of world model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, C. S.; Benson, C.; Kersten, D.; Schrater, P.

    2010-01-01

    How to compute initially unknown reward values makes up one of the key problems in reinforcement learning theory, with two basic approaches being used. Model-free algorithms rely on the accumulation of substantial amounts of experience to compute the value of actions, whereas in model-based learning, the agent seeks to learn the generative process for outcomes from which the value of actions can be predicted. Here we show that (i) “probability matching”—a consistent example of suboptimal choice behavior seen in humans—occurs in an optimal Bayesian model-based learner using a max decision rule that is initialized with ecologically plausible, but incorrect beliefs about the generative process for outcomes and (ii) human behavior can be strongly and predictably altered by the presence of cues suggestive of various generative processes, despite statistically identical outcome generation. These results suggest human decision making is rational and model based and not consistent with model-free learning. PMID:20805507

  9. Assistive technology for promoting choice behaviors in three children with cerebral palsy and severe communication impairments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stasolla, Fabrizio; Caffò, Alessandro O; Picucci, Luciana; Bosco, Andrea

    2013-09-01

    A technology-based program to promote independent choice behaviors by three children with cerebral palsy and multiple disabilities was assessed. The program was based on learning principles and assistive technology (i.e., customized input devices/sensors, personal computers, screening of preferred stimuli according to a binomial criterion). The first purpose of the present study was to provide the participants with a new set-up of assistive technology and to allow them to choose among three categories (i.e., food, beverage and leisure), and to request a specific item out of four in each category, adopting a procedure that minimized (according to a conditional probability criterion) unintentional choices. The second aim of the study was to carry out the effects of the program on detectable mood signs (i.e., happiness index). The study was conducted according to an ABAB sequence with a subsequent post intervention check for each participant. The results showed an increase of engagement and of the happiness index during intervention phases. Psychological as well as educational implications were discussed. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. System Architecture Modeling for Technology Portfolio Management using ATLAS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Robert W.; O'Neil, Daniel A.

    2006-01-01

    Strategic planners and technology portfolio managers have traditionally relied on consensus-based tools, such as Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Quality Function Deployment (QFD) in planning the funding of technology development. While useful to a certain extent, these tools are limited in the ability to fully quantify the impact of a technology choice on system mass, system reliability, project schedule, and lifecycle cost. The Advanced Technology Lifecycle Analysis System (ATLAS) aims to provide strategic planners a decision support tool for analyzing technology selections within a Space Exploration Architecture (SEA). Using ATLAS, strategic planners can select physics-based system models from a library, configure the systems with technologies and performance parameters, and plan the deployment of a SEA. Key parameters for current and future technologies have been collected from subject-matter experts and other documented sources in the Technology Tool Box (TTB). ATLAS can be used to compare the technical feasibility and economic viability of a set of technology choices for one SEA, and compare it against another set of technology choices or another SEA. System architecture modeling in ATLAS is a multi-step process. First, the modeler defines the system level requirements. Second, the modeler identifies technologies of interest whose impact on an SEA. Third, the system modeling team creates models of architecture elements (e.g. launch vehicles, in-space transfer vehicles, crew vehicles) if they are not already in the model library. Finally, the architecture modeler develops a script for the ATLAS tool to run, and the results for comparison are generated.

  11. Development of discrete choice model considering internal reference points and their effects in travel mode choice context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarif; Kurauchi, Shinya; Yoshii, Toshio

    2017-06-01

    In the conventional travel behavior models such as logit and probit, decision makers are assumed to conduct the absolute evaluations on the attributes of the choice alternatives. On the other hand, many researchers in cognitive psychology and marketing science have been suggesting that the perceptions of attributes are characterized by the benchmark called “reference points” and the relative evaluations based on them are often employed in various choice situations. Therefore, this study developed a travel behavior model based on the mental accounting theory in which the internal reference points are explicitly considered. A questionnaire survey about the shopping trip to the CBD in Matsuyama city was conducted, and then the roles of reference points in travel mode choice contexts were investigated. The result showed that the goodness-of-fit of the developed model was higher than that of the conventional model, indicating that the internal reference points might play the major roles in the choice of travel mode. Also shown was that the respondents seem to utilize various reference points: some tend to adopt the lowest fuel price they have experienced, others employ fare price they feel in perceptions of the travel cost.

  12. Portfolio Choice in a Monetary Open-Economy DSGE Model

    OpenAIRE

    Akito Matsumoto; Charles Engel

    2006-01-01

    This paper develops a two-country monetary DSGE model in which households choose a portfolio of home and foreign equities, and a forward position in foreign exchange. Some goods prices are set without full information of the state. We show that temporarily sticky nominal goods prices can have large effects on equity portfolios. Home and foreign portfolios are not identical in equilibrium. In response to technology shocks, sticky prices generate a negative correlation between labor income and ...

  13. Bayesian methods for model choice and propagation of model uncertainty in groundwater transport modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendes, B. S.; Draper, D.

    2008-12-01

    The issue of model uncertainty and model choice is central in any groundwater modeling effort [Neuman and Wierenga, 2003]; among the several approaches to the problem we favour using Bayesian statistics because it is a method that integrates in a natural way uncertainties (arising from any source) and experimental data. In this work, we experiment with several Bayesian approaches to model choice, focusing primarily on demonstrating the usefulness of the Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) simulation method [Green, 1995]; this is an extension of the now- common MCMC methods. Standard MCMC techniques approximate posterior distributions for quantities of interest, often by creating a random walk in parameter space; RJMCMC allows the random walk to take place between parameter spaces with different dimensionalities. This fact allows us to explore state spaces that are associated with different deterministic models for experimental data. Our work is exploratory in nature; we restrict our study to comparing two simple transport models applied to a data set gathered to estimate the breakthrough curve for a tracer compound in groundwater. One model has a mean surface based on a simple advection dispersion differential equation; the second model's mean surface is also governed by a differential equation but in two dimensions. We focus on artificial data sets (in which truth is known) to see if model identification is done correctly, but we also address the issues of over and under-paramerization, and we compare RJMCMC's performance with other traditional methods for model selection and propagation of model uncertainty, including Bayesian model averaging, BIC and DIC.References Neuman and Wierenga (2003). A Comprehensive Strategy of Hydrogeologic Modeling and Uncertainty Analysis for Nuclear Facilities and Sites. NUREG/CR-6805, Division of Systems Analysis and Regulatory Effectiveness Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission

  14. The Answering Process for Multiple-Choice Questions in Collaborative Learning: A Mathematical Learning Model Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamura, Yasuyuki; Nishi, Shinnosuke; Muramatsu, Yuta; Yasutake, Koichi; Yamakawa, Osamu; Tagawa, Takahiro

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we introduce a mathematical model for collaborative learning and the answering process for multiple-choice questions. The collaborative learning model is inspired by the Ising spin model and the model for answering multiple-choice questions is based on their difficulty level. An intensive simulation study predicts the possibility of…

  15. Joint Residence-Workplace Location Choice Model Based on Household Decision Behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pengpeng Jiao

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Residence location and workplace are the two most important urban land-use types, and there exist strong interdependences between them. Existing researches often assume that one choice dimension is correlated to the other. Using the mixed logit framework, three groups of choice models are developed to illustrate such choice dependencies. First, for all households, this paper presents a basic methodology of the residence location and workplace choice without decision sequence based on the assumption that the two choice behaviors are independent of each other. Second, the paper clusters all households into two groups, choosing residence or workplace first, and formulates the residence location and workplace choice models under the constraint of decision sequence. Third, this paper combines the residence location and workplace together as the choice alternative and puts forward the joint choice model. A questionnaire survey is implemented in Beijing city to collect the data of 1994 households. Estimation results indicate that the joint choice model fits the data significantly better, and the elasticity effects analyses show that the joint choice model reflects the influences of relevant factors to the choice probability well and leads to the job-housing balance.

  16. Standard Lunar Regolith Simulants for Space Resource Utilization Technologies Development: Effects of Materials Choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sibille, Laurent; Carpenter, Paul K.

    2006-01-01

    As NASA turns its exploration ambitions towards the Moon once again, the research and development of new technologies for lunar operations face the challenge of meeting the milestones of a fastpace schedule, reminiscent of the 1960's Apollo program. While the lunar samples returned by the Apollo and Luna missions have revealed much about the Moon, these priceless materials exist in too scarce quantities to be used for technology development and testing. The need for mineral materials chosen to simulate the characteristics of lunar regoliths is a pressing issue that is being addressed today through the collaboration of scientists, engineers and NASA program managers. The issue of reproducing the properties of lunar regolith for research and technology development purposes was addressed by the recently held 2005 Workshop on Lunar Regolith Simulant Materials at Marshall Space Flight Center. The recommendation of the workshop of establishing standard simulant materials to be used in lunar technology development and testing will be discussed here with an emphasis on space resource utilization. The variety of techniques and the complexity of functional interfaces make these simulant choices critical in space resource utilization.

  17. Mixing process in the preparation of feed pellets at technological conditions rational parametres choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. S. Shentsova

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The mixing of ingredients – the most important process step in the manufacture of fodder pellets. The technology involves using molasses (warmed to 30–40 °C as a binder. In its composition is administered a mixture of salts of trace elements (copper sulfate, zinc sulfate, cobalt carbonate, potassium iodide, ferrous sulfate, manganese sulfate, sodium selenite, vitamins, salt, magnesium oxide, feed limestone, mono calcium phosphate and lime. Research on the development of feed pellets were carried out in laboratory conditions using experimental equipment. Mixer-reactor created the conditions for heating and temperature control of mass be mixed due to the occurring chemical reaction between water contained in the molasses, and the presence of oxides of calcium and magnesium. The choice of rational parameters of the mixing process upon receipt of fodder pellets allows to provide the high quality product with minimal energy costs. The ranges of the input information factors selected with the aid of a central rotatable uniforms-planning allowed with 56 experiments in a third-multiple replication to obtain the regression equation adequately describing the mixing process. The main factors were: the content of molasses, %; the content of calcium oxide, %; frequency of rotation of the stirrer, rpm; the content of salt in the recipe, %; the temperature of blending, °C. Output factors – productivity, kg/h; energy consumption, kWh; homogeneity of mixing, %. In the result of experiments impact factors and mathematical model of the process that allows to define output parameters within chosen ranges of variation of input factors are obtained. Greatest influence – the content of molasses in the product, the lowest – content of salt in the recipe. Efficiency of mixing hard distributed components pertaining to the most important biologically active substances was evaluated. Content (% of entered of vitamins and minerals in the pellets did not differ

  18. Persuasive Technology and Business Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søndergaard, Morten Karnøe; Lindgren, Peter; Veirum, Niels Einar

    specific behavior, this results to the ability of designing for specific changes. Businesses use different persuasive technologies to persuade users, customers and network partners to change behavior. Operating more than one value proposition, both tangible and intangible value proposition, in combination...... seems to be crucial to the success of a persuasive business model. We will give a short introduction into the area of persuasive technology and business models. Moreover, we will present a number of concrete case examples where persuasive technologies were employed, the first in health care, the second...

  19. Technology choice and development in Brazil: An assessment of Brazil's alternative fuel program and the agriculture, manufacturing, energy, and service sectors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolan, Lucy A.

    Technology choice profoundly affects a country's development process because capital-intensive and labor-intensive technologies have different socioeconomic linkages within the economy. This research examines the impacts of technology choice through the use of a social accounting matrix (SAM) framework. SAM-based modeling determines the direct and indirect effects of technology choice on development, particularly poverty alleviation in Brazil. Brazil's alternative fuel program was analyzed as a special example of technology choice. Two ethanol production technologies and the gasoline sector were compared; to make the study more robust, labor and capital intensive technologies were evaluated in the production of agriculture, manufacturing, energy, and services. Growth in these economic sectors was examined to assess the effects on employment, factor and household income, energy intensity, and carbon dioxide costs. Poverty alleviation was a focus, so income to unskilled agriculture labor, unskilled non-agriculture labor, and income to rural and urban households in poverty was also analyzed. The major research finding is that overall, labor-intensive technologies generate more employment, factor and household income, environmental and energy benefits to Brazil's economy than capital-intensive technologies. In addition, labor-intensive technologies make a particular contribution to poverty alleviation. The results suggest that policies to encourage the adoption of these technologies, especially in the agriculture and renewable energy sectors, are important because of their intersectoral linkages within the economy. Many studies have shown that Brazil's fuel ethanol program has helped to realize multiple macroeconomic objectives. However, this is the first empirical study to quantify its household income effects. The ethanol industry generated the most household income of the energy sectors. The research confirms a key finding of the appropriate technology literature

  20. The Effects of Land Use Patterns on Tour Type Choice. The Application of a Hybrid Choice Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    de Abreu e Silva, João; Sottile, Eleonora; Cherchi, Elisabetta

    2014-01-01

    to travel. Workers who reside in more central, mixed and traditional urban spaces tend to have a higher propensity to travel. Workers who live in more diverse areas have a higher probability of engaging in more complex work related tours. Working in more suburban areas reduces the probability of engaging......The relations between travel behavior and land use patterns have been the object of intensive research in the last two decades. Due to their immediate policy implications, mode choice and vehicle miles of travel (VMT) have been the main focus of attention. Other relevant dimensions, like trip...... of the latent propensity to travel in the discrete choice among types of tours. This model is applied to a travel diary of workers collected in the Lisbon Metropolitan Area in 2009. Different model specifications were built, testing the inclusion of purportedly built land use factors, which have the advantage...

  1. Estimating Route Choice Models from Stochastically Generated Choice Sets on Large-Scale Networks Correcting for Unequal Sampling Probability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vacca, Alessandro; Prato, Carlo Giacomo; Meloni, Italo

    2015-01-01

    is the dependency of the parameter estimates from the choice set generation technique. Bias introduced in model estimation has been corrected only for the random walk algorithm, which has problematic applicability to large-scale networks. This study proposes a correction term for the sampling probability of routes...... extracted with stochastic route generation. The term is easily applicable to large-scale networks and various environments, given its dependence only on a random number generator and the Dijkstra shortest path algorithm. The implementation for revealed preferences data, which consist of actual route choices...... collected in Cagliari, Italy, shows the feasibility of generating routes stochastically in a high-resolution network and calculating the correction factor. The model estimation with and without correction illustrates how the correction not only improves the goodness of fit but also turns illogical signs...

  2. Making Energy-Efficiency and Productivity Investments in Commercial Buildings: Choice of Investment Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, D.W.

    2002-05-16

    This study examines the decision to invest in buildings and the types of investment decision rules that may be employed to inform the ''go--no go'' decision. There is a range of decision making tools available to help in investment choices, which range from simple rules of thumb such as payback periods, to life-cycle analysis, to decision theoretic approaches. Payback period analysis tends to point toward lower first costs, whereas life-cycle analysis tends to minimize uncertainties over future events that can affect profitability. We conclude that investment models that integrate uncertainty offer better explanations for the behavior that is observed, i.e., people tend to delay investments in technologies that life-cycle analysis finds cost-effective, and these models also lead to an alternative set of policies targeted at reducing of managing uncertainty.

  3. DETERMINANTS OF THE CHOICE OF MARKETING CHANNELS BY CORPORATE CLIENTS: AN ANALYSIS OF THE INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY SECTOR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guilherme Soares

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Based on a survey of 505 corporate clients from the information technology industry, this study uses a logit statistical model to analyze whether such factors as loyalty, trust, client importance, intimacy between customer and supplier and the cost of changing suppliers may affect the choice of the marketing channel used by the client. The results show that the greater intimacy between a supplier and a corporate client is a determining factor for the client’s preference for being served by the manufacturer rather than an intermediary. In contrast, clients’ perception of their own importance to the supplier is not very relevant to their preference for being served directly by the manufacturer, and the other factors were not identified as (statistically important determinants of the choice of the marketing channel. These results suggest that the real advantage of the direct sales channel over the indirect sales channel lies in its ability to strengthen the client-manufacturer relationship, thereby contributing to the development of solutions that better serve the needs of corporate clients.

  4. MODELLING CONSUMER CHOICE IN THE MARKET SWITCHBOARD EQUIPMENT USING IBM SPSS STATISTICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergey V. Mkhitaryan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Modelling consumer choice in the marketswitch equipment will allow manufacturing enterprises to improve the efficiencyof design and marketing activities byreducing the financial and human losses associated with pre-treatment orders. Todevelop a model of consumer choice canbe used logistic regression.

  5. Advanced Mirror & Modelling Technology Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Effinger, Michael; Stahl, H. Philip; Abplanalp, Laura; Maffett, Steven; Egerman, Robert; Eng, Ron; Arnold, William; Mosier, Gary; Blaurock, Carl

    2014-01-01

    The 2020 Decadal technology survey is starting in 2018. Technology on the shelf at that time will help guide selection to future low risk and low cost missions. The Advanced Mirror Technology Development (AMTD) team has identified development priorities based on science goals and engineering requirements for Ultraviolet Optical near-Infrared (UVOIR) missions in order to contribute to the selection process. One key development identified was lightweight mirror fabrication and testing. A monolithic, stacked, deep core mirror was fused and replicated twice to achieve the desired radius of curvature. It was subsequently successfully polished and tested. A recently awarded second phase to the AMTD project will develop larger mirrors to demonstrate the lateral scaling of the deep core mirror technology. Another key development was rapid modeling for the mirror. One model focused on generating optical and structural model results in minutes instead of months. Many variables could be accounted for regarding the core, face plate and back structure details. A portion of a spacecraft model was also developed. The spacecraft model incorporated direct integration to transform optical path difference to Point Spread Function (PSF) and between PSF to modulation transfer function. The second phase to the project will take the results of the rapid mirror modeler and integrate them into the rapid spacecraft modeler.

  6. Multimodal route choice models of public transport passengers in the Greater Copenhagen Area

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Anderson, Marie Karen; Nielsen, Otto Anker; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2014-01-01

    ,641 public transport users in the Greater Copenhagen Area.A two-stage approach consisting of choice set generation and route choice model estimation allowed uncovering the preferences of the users of this multimodal large-scale public transport network. The results illustrate the rates of substitution...... of their inherent complexity and challenges. In particular, choice set generation and modeling route choice behavior while accounting for similarity across alternatives and heterogeneity across travelers are non-trivial challenges. This paper tackles these challenges by focusing on the revealed preferences of 5...

  7. Technology Transfer Issues and a New Technology Transfer Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Hee Jun

    2009-01-01

    The following are major issues that should be considered for efficient and effective technology transfer: conceptions of technology, technological activity and transfer, communication channels, factors affecting transfer, and models of transfer. In particular, a well-developed model of technology transfer could be used as a framework for…

  8. Energy Performance Impacts from Competing Low-slope Roofing Choices and Photovoltaic Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagengast, Amy L.

    With such a vast quantity of space, commercial low-slope roofs offer significant potential for sustainable roofing technology deployment. Specifically, building energy performance can be improved by installing rooftop energy technologies such as photovoltaic (PV) panels, and/or including designs such as white or green roofs instead of traditional black. This research aims to inform and support roof decisions through quantified energy performance impacts across roof choices and photovoltaic technologies. The primary dataset for this research was measured over a 16 month period (May 24, 2011 to October 13, 2012) from a large field experiment in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania on top of a commercial warehouse with white, black and green roof sections, each with portions covered by polycrystalline photovoltaic panels. Results from the Pittsburgh experiment were extended to three different cities (San Diego, CA; Huntsville, AL; and Phoenix, AZ) chosen to represent a wide range of irradiance and temperature values. First, this research evaluated the difference in electricity production from a green-moss roof and black roof underneath photovoltaic panels to determine if the green roof's cooler air increases the panel efficiency. Second, separate studies examine 1) average hourly heat flux by month for unobstructed and shaded roof membranes 2) heat flux peak time delay, and 3) air temperature across roof types. Results of this research show green roofs slightly increased (0.8-1.5%) PV panel efficiency in temperatures approximately at or above 25° C (77°F) compared to black roofs. However in cool climates, like Pittsburgh, the roof type under the PV panels had little overall impact on PV performance when considering year round temperatures. Instead, roof decisions should place a stronger emphasis on heat flux impacts. The green roof outperformed both black and white roofs at minimizing total conductive heat flux. These heat flow values were used to develop a new, straight

  9. Consumer choice models on the effect of promotions in retailing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Guyt, Jonne

    2015-01-01

    This doctoral thesis contains three empirical essays regarding the effect of promotions on consumer choices in a retailing context. The first essay studies the scheduling of featured price cuts for national brands, across retail chains. It shows that coordinating promotions across chains influences

  10. Fund choice behavior and estimation of switching models: an experiment*

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anufriev, M.; Bao, T.; Tuinstra, J.

    2013-01-01

    We run a laboratory experiment that contributes to the finance literature on "return chasing behavior" studying how investors switch between mutual funds driven by past performance of the funds. The subjects in this experiment make discrete choices between several (2, 3 or 4) experimental funds in m

  11. The Use of Predictive Models in Forecasting Student Choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuckman, Howard P.

    This paper uses ordinary least squares regression to obtain probabilities for the post-graduation choices of high school seniors, and it presents an illustration of the use of these probabilities in calculating future income. Problems raised by the use of the least squares regression are discussed. The benefits of higher education and ways in…

  12. Modeling brand choice using boosted and stacked neural networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Potharst (Rob); M. van Rijthoven; M.C. van Wezel (Michiel)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractThe brand choice problem in marketing has recently been addressed with methods from computational intelligence such as neural networks. Another class of methods from computational intelligence, the so-called ensemble methods such as boosting and stacking have never been applied to the

  13. Bioprinting technologies for disease modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Memic, Adnan; Navaei, Ali; Mirani, Bahram

    2017-01-01

    challenges of conventional in vitro assays through the development of custom bioinks and patient derived cells coupled with well-defined arrangements of biomaterials. Here, we provide an overview on the technological aspects of 3D bioprinting technique and discuss how the development of bioprinted tissue......There is a great need for the development of biomimetic human tissue models that allow elucidation of the pathophysiological conditions involved in disease initiation and progression. Conventional two-dimensional (2D) in vitro assays and animal models have been unable to fully recapitulate...... the critical characteristics of human physiology. Alternatively, three-dimensional (3D) tissue models are often developed in a low-throughput manner and lack crucial native-like architecture. The recent emergence of bioprinting technologies has enabled creating 3D tissue models that address the critical...

  14. Departure time choice: Modelling individual preferences, intention and constraints

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorhauge, Mikkel

    working hours) as the penalty of late arrival is very likely to be higher for individuals with constraints on arrival time. However, flexibility is not only a matter of fixed arrival time. Activities can be mandatory or discretionary (Yamamoto and Kitamura, 1999), performed alone or jointly with family......D thesis is as follows. Firstly, it provides evidence of a fully efficient stated choice design for a departure time context. Using a pivot design (Rose et al., 2008) built around a reference trip (usually from the day before), the thesis shows that the efficient design performs well in cases where good...... whether they are constrained. The thesis also provides empirical evidences of the policy implication of not accounting for other activities and their constraints. Thirdly, the thesis shows that the departure time choice can be partly explained by psychological factors, which have previously been neglected...

  15. Accounting for choice of measurement scale in extreme value modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Wadsworth, J. L.; Tawn, J. A.; Jonathan, P.

    2010-01-01

    We investigate the effect that the choice of measurement scale has upon inference and extrapolation in extreme value analysis. Separate analyses of variables from a single process on scales which are linked by a nonlinear transformation may lead to discrepant conclusions concerning the tail behavior of the process. We propose the use of a Box--Cox power transformation incorporated as part of the inference procedure to account parametrically for the uncertainty surrounding the scale of extrapo...

  16. How the Girl Choosing Technology Became the Symbol of the Non-Traditional Pupil's Choice in Sweden

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hedlin, Maria

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to elucidate how the girl who chooses technology came to be the symbol of the non-traditional pupil's choice in Sweden. In the early 1960s it was hoped that girls would enter workshop training and then commit themselves to engineering mechanics jobs at a time when Sweden was characterised by economic growth which was…

  17. Do Methodological Choices in Environmental Modeling Bias Rebound Effects? : A Case Study on Electric Cars

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Font Vivanco, D.; Tukker, A.; Kemp, R.

    2016-01-01

    Improvements in resource efficiency often underperform because of rebound effects. Calculations of the size of rebound effects are subject to various types of bias, among which methodological choices have received particular attention. Modellers have primarily focused on choices related to changes i

  18. Modeling the Bullying Prevention Program Preferences of Educators: A Discrete Choice Conjoint Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Charles E.; Vaillancourt, Tracy; Rimas, Heather; Deal, Ken; Cunningham, Lesley; Short, Kathy; Chen, Yvonne

    2009-01-01

    We used discrete choice conjoint analysis to model the bullying prevention program preferences of educators. Using themes from computerized decision support lab focus groups (n = 45 educators), we composed 20 three-level bullying prevention program design attributes. Each of 1,176 educators completed 25 choice tasks presenting experimentally…

  19. Joint modeling of constrained path enumeration and path choice behavior: a semi-compensatory approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2010-01-01

    A behavioural and a modelling framework are proposed for representing route choice from a path set that satisfies travellers’ spatiotemporal constraints. Within the proposed framework, travellers’ master sets are constructed by path generation, consideration sets are delimited according to spatio...... constraints are related to travellers’ socio-economic characteristics and that path choice is related to minimizing time and avoiding congestion....

  20. Fuzzy social choice models explaining the government formation process

    CERN Document Server

    C Casey, Peter; A Goodman, Carly; Pook, Kelly Nelson; N Mordeson, John; J Wierman, Mark; D Clark, Terry

    2014-01-01

    This book explores the extent to which fuzzy set logic can overcome some of the shortcomings of public choice theory, particularly its inability to provide adequate predictive power in empirical studies. Especially in the case of social preferences, public choice theory has failed to produce the set of alternatives from which collective choices are made.  The book presents empirical findings achieved by the authors in their efforts to predict the outcome of government formation processes in European parliamentary and semi-presidential systems.  Using data from the Comparative Manifesto Project (CMP), the authors propose a new approach that reinterprets error in the coding of CMP data as ambiguity in the actual political positions of parties on the policy dimensions being coded. The range of this error establishes parties’ fuzzy preferences. The set of possible outcomes in the process of government formation is then calculated on the basis of both the fuzzy Pareto set and the fuzzy maximal set, and the pre...

  1. How the twain can meet: Prospect theory and models of heuristics in risky choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pachur, Thorsten; Suter, Renata S; Hertwig, Ralph

    2017-03-01

    Two influential approaches to modeling choice between risky options are algebraic models (which focus on predicting the overt decisions) and models of heuristics (which are also concerned with capturing the underlying cognitive process). Because they rest on fundamentally different assumptions and algorithms, the two approaches are usually treated as antithetical, or even incommensurable. Drawing on cumulative prospect theory (CPT; Tversky & Kahneman, 1992) as the currently most influential instance of a descriptive algebraic model, we demonstrate how the two modeling traditions can be linked. CPT's algebraic functions characterize choices in terms of psychophysical (diminishing sensitivity to probabilities and outcomes) as well as psychological (risk aversion and loss aversion) constructs. Models of heuristics characterize choices as rooted in simple information-processing principles such as lexicographic and limited search. In computer simulations, we estimated CPT's parameters for choices produced by various heuristics. The resulting CPT parameter profiles portray each of the choice-generating heuristics in psychologically meaningful ways-capturing, for instance, differences in how the heuristics process probability information. Furthermore, CPT parameters can reflect a key property of many heuristics, lexicographic search, and track the environment-dependent behavior of heuristics. Finally, we show, both in an empirical and a model recovery study, how CPT parameter profiles can be used to detect the operation of heuristics. We also address the limits of CPT's ability to capture choices produced by heuristics. Our results highlight an untapped potential of CPT as a measurement tool to characterize the information processing underlying risky choice.

  2. Bayesian nonparametric estimation and consistency of mixed multinomial logit choice models

    CERN Document Server

    De Blasi, Pierpaolo; Lau, John W; 10.3150/09-BEJ233

    2011-01-01

    This paper develops nonparametric estimation for discrete choice models based on the mixed multinomial logit (MMNL) model. It has been shown that MMNL models encompass all discrete choice models derived under the assumption of random utility maximization, subject to the identification of an unknown distribution $G$. Noting the mixture model description of the MMNL, we employ a Bayesian nonparametric approach, using nonparametric priors on the unknown mixing distribution $G$, to estimate choice probabilities. We provide an important theoretical support for the use of the proposed methodology by investigating consistency of the posterior distribution for a general nonparametric prior on the mixing distribution. Consistency is defined according to an $L_1$-type distance on the space of choice probabilities and is achieved by extending to a regression model framework a recent approach to strong consistency based on the summability of square roots of prior probabilities. Moving to estimation, slightly different te...

  3. Understanding the formation and influence of attitudes in patients' treatment choices for lower back pain: Testing the benefits of a hybrid choice model approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kløjgaard, Mirja Elisabeth; Hess, S.

    2014-01-01

    A growing number of studies across different fields are making use of a new class of choice models, labelled variably as hybrid model structures or integrated choice and latent variable models, and incorporating the role of attitudes in decision making. To date, this technique has not been used...... in health economics. The present paper looks at the formation of such attitudes and their role in patients treatment choices in the context of low back pain. We use stated choice data collected from a sample of 561 patients with 348 respondents referred to a regional spine centre in Middelfart, Denmark...... in spring/summer 2012. We show how the hybrid model structure is able to make a link between attitudinal questions and treatment choices, and also explains variation of these attitudes across key socio-demographic groups. However, we also show how, in this case, only a small share of the overall...

  4. Career choices in allied health: A study of influencing factors on students of medical technology at an Indian University

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sammita J Jadhav

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: In India, entry level medical technology (MT students usually decide their career choice before the commencement of the graduate programs. There is no provision for assimilating the intricacies of different specializations in the field of MT. Aim: The research aims at identifying the factors that play a major role in reaching a career choice by MT students and disseminating this information to stakeholders for effective program design and delivery. Setting and Designs: An exploratory study was carried out at an Indian university on 78 students of MT programs in Cardiac care, dialysis, respiratory therapy, imaging sciences, clinical laboratory, operation theater and Anesthesia technology. Materials and Methods: Students were surveyed to ascertain the influencing factors that shape their preferences for career choice preceded by focus group interview. Statistical Analysis: Data was analyzed using SPSS Inc. Version 16.0; frequency distribution was used to obtain valid percentage. Cross tabulation was used to arrive at P value. Results: The prime factors influencing career choices emerged as Hospital infrastructure (91.3%, working environment (87%, alumni (P = 0.04 and status of specialization (P = 0.02 at 95% of the confidence interval however; profile of patient, use of equipment and career growth (78% also played an influential role. Conclusion: It is critical to understand and address the influencing factors that affect career choices; necessitating academia and the health care industry to partner in creating better adapted medical technologists.

  5. Incorporating Latent Variables into Discrete Choice Models - A Simultaneous Estimation Approach Using SEM Software

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dirk Temme

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Integrated choice and latent variable (ICLV models represent a promising new class of models which merge classic choice models with the structural equation approach (SEM for latent variables. Despite their conceptual appeal, applications of ICLV models in marketing remain rare. We extend previous ICLV applications by first estimating a multinomial choice model and, second, by estimating hierarchical relations between latent variables. An empirical study on travel mode choice clearly demonstrates the value of ICLV models to enhance the understanding of choice processes. In addition to the usually studied directly observable variables such as travel time, we show how abstract motivations such as power and hedonism as well as attitudes such as a desire for flexibility impact on travel mode choice. Furthermore, we show that it is possible to estimate such a complex ICLV model with the widely available structural equation modeling package Mplus. This finding is likely to encourage more widespread application of this appealing model class in the marketing field.

  6. CHOICE OF EFFECTIVE ORGANIZATIONAL AND TECHNOLOGICAL DECISIONS UNDER RECONSTRUCTION WITH CONSIDERATION FOR ECOLOGICAL MONITORING

    OpenAIRE

    K. Yu. Zubenko; L. V. Girya; S. G. Sheina

    2009-01-01

    Classification of basic ecological risks parameters is suggested to provide urban reconstruction. Technology of its mapping is considered by example of Rostov-on- Don. The program “Ecological risk management” which al-lows to define a number of measures reducing ecological risk at the pre-investment stage is suggested. Information model of ecological risk man-agement under reconstruction is offered.

  7. Specialty choice preference of medical students according to personality traits by Five-Factor Model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Oh Young Kwon; So Youn Park

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between personality traits, using the Five-Factor Model, and characteristics and motivational factors affecting specialty choice in Korean medical students. Methods...

  8. Single-parenthood by choice: Children’s socialization processes into a non-conventional family model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Poveda

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available In this article we present part of our findings from a research project focused on single-parent families by choice. The study collected data in three autonomous communities in Spain and includes interviews with mothers involved in single parent-projects (through adoption, foster parenting, assisted reproductive technologies or sexual fertilization through a known donor and their children about their family experiences, observations in different formative, associative and virtual spaces in which these families participate and a compilation of different documents on parenthood by choice. We focus on the way in which the children we have studied build their own non-conventional family model. We understand the construction of this model as a process of co-construction of the child's subjectivity in which mothers and other socializing agents play an active role.

  9. A conceptual model for determining career choice of CHROME alumna based on farmer's conceptual models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Lisa Simmons

    This qualitative program evaluation examines the career decision-making processes and career choices of nine, African American women who participated in the Cooperating Hampton Roads Organization for Minorities in Engineering (CHROME) and who graduated from urban, rural or suburban high schools in the year 2000. The CHROME program is a nonprofit, pre-college intervention program that encourages underrepresented minority and female students to enter science, technically related, engineering, and math (STEM) career fields. The study describes career choices and decisions made by each participant over a five-year period since high school graduation. Data was collected through an Annual Report, Post High School Questionnaires, Environmental Support Questionnaires, Career Choice Questionnaires, Senior Reports, and standardized open-ended interviews. Data was analyzed using a model based on Helen C. Farmer's Conceptual Models, John Ogbu's Caste Theory and Feminist Theory. The CHROME program, based on its stated goals and tenets, was also analyzed against study findings. Findings indicated that participants received very low levels of support from counselors and teachers to pursue STEM careers and high levels of support from parents and family, the CHROME program and financial backing. Findings of this study also indicated that the majority of CHROME alumna persisted in STEM careers. The most successful participants, in terms of undergraduate degree completion and occupational prestige, were the African American women who remained single, experienced no critical incidents, came from a middle class to upper middle class socioeconomic background, and did not have children.

  10. Not lack of ability but more choice: individual and gender differences in choice of careers in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ming-Te; Eccles, Jacquelynne S; Kenny, Sarah

    2013-05-01

    The pattern of gender differences in math and verbal ability may result in females having a wider choice of careers, in both science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) and non-STEM fields, compared with males. The current study tested whether individuals with high math and high verbal ability in 12th grade were more or less likely to choose STEM occupations than those with high math and moderate verbal ability. The 1,490 subjects participated in two waves of a national longitudinal study; one wave was when the subjects were in 12th grade, and the other was when they were 33 years old. Results revealed that mathematically capable individuals who also had high verbal skills were less likely to pursue STEM careers than were individuals who had high math skills but moderate verbal skills. One notable finding was that the group with high math and high verbal ability included more females than males.

  11. Bayesian model choice for epidemic models with two levels of mixing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knock, Edward S; O'Neill, Philip D

    2014-01-01

    This paper considers the problem of choosing between competing models for infectious disease final outcome data in a population that is partitioned into households. The epidemic models are stochastic individual-based transmission models of the susceptible-infective-removed type. The main focus is on various algorithms for the estimation of Bayes factors, of which a path sampling-based algorithm is seen to give the best results. We also explore theoretical properties in the case where the within-model prior distributions become increasingly uninformative, which show the need for caution when using Bayes factors as a model choice tool. A suitable form of deviance information criterion is also considered for comparison. The theory and methods are illustrated with both artificial data, and influenza data from the Tecumseh study of illness.

  12. Guiding healthcare technology implementation: a new integrated technology implementation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoville, Rhonda R; Titler, Marita G

    2015-03-01

    Healthcare technology is used to improve delivery of safe patient care by providing tools for early diagnosis, ongoing monitoring, and treatment of patients. This technology includes bedside physiologic monitors, pulse oximetry devices, electrocardiogram machines, bedside telemetry, infusion pumps, ventilators, and electronic health records. Healthcare costs are a challenge for society, and hospitals are pushed to lower costs by discharging patients sooner. Healthcare technology is being used to facilitate these early discharges. There is little understanding of how healthcare facilities purchase, implement, and adopt technology. There are two areas of theories and models currently used when investigating technology: technology adoption and implementation science. Technology adoption focuses mainly on how the end users adopt technology, whereas implementation science describes methods, interventions, and variables that promote the use of evidence-based practice. These two approaches are not well informed by each other. In addition, amplifying the knowledge gap is the limited conceptualization of healthcare technology implementation frameworks. To bridge this gap, an all-encompassing model is needed. To understand the key technology implementation factors utilized by leading healthcare facilities, the prevailing technology adoption and implementation science theories and models were reviewed. From this review, an integrated technology implementation model will be set forth.

  13. An analysis of complex multiple-choice science-technology-society items: Methodological development and preliminary results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vázquez-Alonso, Ángel; Manassero-Mas, María-Antonia; Acevedo-Díaz, José-Antonio

    2006-07-01

    The scarce attention to the assessment and evaluation in science education research has been especially harmful for teaching science-technology-society (STS) issues, due to the dialectical, tentative, value-laden, and polemic nature of most STS topics. This paper tackles the methodological difficulties of the instruments that monitor views related to STS topics and rationalizes a quantitative methodology and an analysis technique to improve the utility of an empirically developed multiple-choice item pool, the Questionnaire of Opinions on STS. This methodology embraces an item-scaling psychometrics based on the judgments by a panel of experts, a multiple response model, a scoring system, and the data analysis. The methodology finally produces normalized attitudinal indices that represent the respondent's reasoned beliefs toward STS statements, the respondent's position on an item that comprises several statements, or the respondent's position on an entire STS topic that encompasses a set of items. Some preliminary results show the methodology's ability to evaluate the STS attitudes in a qualitative and quantitative way and for statistical hypothesis testing. Lastly, some applications for teacher training and STS curriculum development in science classrooms are discussed.

  14. Hydrogen Analysis with the Sandia ParaChoice Model.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Levinson, Rebecca Sobel [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); West, Todd H. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-07-01

    In the coming decades, light-duty vehicle options and their supporting infrastructure must undergo significant transformations to achieve aggressive national targets for reducing petroleum consumption and lowering greenhouse gas emissions. FCEVs, battery and hybrid electric vehicles, and biofuels are among the promising advanced technology options. This project examines the market penetration of FCEVs in a range of market segments, and in different energy, technology, and policy futures. Analyses are conducted in the context of varying hydrogen production and distribution pathways, as well as public infrastructure availability, fuel (gasoline, ethanol, hydrogen) and electricity costs, vehicle costs and fuel economies to better understand under what conditions, and for which market segments, FCEVs can best compete with battery electric and other alternative fuel vehicles.

  15. Conceptual design of an integrated technology model for carbon policy assessment.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Dimotakes, Paul E. (NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA)

    2011-01-01

    This report describes the conceptual design of a technology choice model for understanding strategies to reduce carbon intensity in the electricity sector. The report considers the major modeling issues affecting technology policy assessment and defines an implementable model construct. Further, the report delineates the basis causal structure of such a model and attempts to establish the technical/algorithmic viability of pursuing model development along with the associated analyses.

  16. Partner choice promotes cooperation: the two faces of testing with agent-based models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campennì, Marco; Schino, Gabriele

    2014-03-07

    Reciprocity is one of the most debated among the mechanisms that have been proposed to explain the evolution of cooperation. While a distinction can be made between two general processes that can underlie reciprocation (within-pair temporal relations between cooperative events, and partner choice based on benefits received), theoretical modelling has concentrated on the former, while the latter has been often neglected. We developed a set of agent-based models in which agents adopted a strategy of obligate cooperation and partner choice based on benefits received. Our models tested the ability of partner choice both to reproduce significant emergent features of cooperation in group living animals and to promote the evolution of cooperation. Populations formed by agents adopting a strategy of obligate cooperation and partner choice based on benefits received showed differentiated "social relationships" and a positive correlation between cooperation given and received, two common phenomena in animal cooperation. When selection across multiple generations was added to the model, agents adopting a strategy of partner choice based on benefits received outperformed selfish agents that did not cooperate. Our results suggest partner choice is a significant aspect of cooperation and provides a possible mechanism for its evolution.

  17. Biostereometric Data Processing In ERGODATA: Choice Of Human Body Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pineau, J. C.; Mollard, R.; Sauvignon, M.; Amphoux, M.

    1983-07-01

    The definition of human body models was elaborated with anthropometric data from ERGODATA. The first model reduces the human body into a series of points and lines. The second model is well adapted to represent volumes of each segmentary element. The third is an original model built from the conventional anatomical points. Each segment is defined in space by a tri-angular plane located with its 3-D coordinates. This new model can answer all the processing possibilities in the field of computer-aided design (C.A.D.) in ergonomy but also biomechanics and orthopaedics.

  18. How urban environment affects travel behavior? Integrated Choice and Latent Variable Model for Travel Schedules

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    La Paix, Lissy; Bierlaire, Michel; Cherchi, Elisabetta

    2013-01-01

    The relationship between urban environment and travel behaviour is not a new problem. Neighbourhood characteristics may affect mobility of dwellers in different ways, such as frequency of trips, mode used, structure of the tours, and so on. At the same time, qualitative issues related...... to the individual attitude towards specific behaviour have recently become important in transport modelling contributing to a better understanding of travel demand. Following this research line, in this paper we study the effect of neighbourhood characteristics in the choice of the type of tours performed, but we...... assume that neighbourhood characteristics can also affect the individual propensity to travel and hence the choice of the tours throughout the propensity to travel. Since the propensity to travel is not observed, we employ hybrid choice models to estimate jointly the discrete choice of tours...

  19. How urban environment affects travel behavior? Integrated Choice and Latent Variable Model for Travel Schedules

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    La Paix, Lissy; Bierlaire, Michel; Cherchi, Elisabetta

    2013-01-01

    The relationship between urban environment and travel behaviour is not a new problem. Neighbourhood characteristics may affect mobility of dwellers in different ways, such as frequency of trips, mode used, structure of the tours, and so on. At the same time, qualitative issues related...... to the individual attitude towards specific behaviour have recently become important in transport modelling contributing to a better understanding of travel demand. Following this research line, in this paper we study the effect of neighbourhood characteristics in the choice of the type of tours performed, but we...... assume that neighbourhood characteristics can also affect the individual propensity to travel and hence the choice of the tours throughout the propensity to travel. Since the propensity to travel is not observed, we employ hybrid choice models to estimate jointly the discrete choice of tours...

  20. Collation of Scientific Evidence on Consumer Acceptance of New Food Technologies: Three roads to consumer choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fischer, A.R.H.; Trijp, van J.C.M.; Hofenk, D.J.B.; Ronteltap, A.; Tudoran, A.A.

    2012-01-01

    The current report investigates consumer acceptance of new food technologies by reviewing the scientific literature. The review is organised along three routes to consumer acceptance of new technologies: The consumer benefit road: the central road of technology features influencing experienced

  1. Airport Choice in Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area: An Application of the Conditional Logit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno, Marcelo Baena; Muller, Carlos

    2003-01-01

    Using the conditional LOGIT model, this paper addresses the airport choice in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area. In this region, Guarulhos International Airport (GRU) and Congonhas Airport (CGH) compete for passengers flying to several domestic destinations. The airport choice is believed to be a result of the tradeoff passengers perform considering airport access characteristics, airline level of service characteristics and passenger experience with the analyzed airports. It was found that access time to the airports better explain the airport choice than access distance, whereas direct flight frequencies gives better explanation to the airport choice than the indirect (connections and stops) and total (direct plus indirect) flight frequencies. Out of 15 tested variables, passenger experience with the analyzed airports was the variable that best explained the airport choice in the region. Model specifications considering 1, 2 or 3 variables were tested. The model specification most adjusted to the observed data considered access time, direct flight frequencies in the travel period (morning or afternoon peak) and passenger experience with the analyzed airports. The influence of these variables was therefore analyzed across market segments according to departure airport and flight duration criteria. The choice of GRU (located neighboring Sao Paulo city) is not well explained by the rationality of access time economy and the increase of the supply of direct flight frequencies, while the choice of CGH (located inside Sao Paulo city) is. Access time was found to be more important to passengers flying shorter distances while direct flight frequencies in the travel period were more significant to those flying longer distances. Keywords: Airport choice, Multiple airport region, Conditional LOGIT model, Access time, Flight frequencies, Passenger experience with the analyzed airports, Transportation planning

  2. Applied welfare economics with discrete choice models: implications of theory for empirical specification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Batley, Richard; Ibáñez Rivas, Juan Nicolás

    2013-01-01

    The apparatus of the Random Utility Model (RUM) first emerged in the early 1960s, with Marschak (1960) and Block and Marschak (1960) translating models originally developed for discriminant analysis in psychophysics (Thurstone, 1927) to the alternative domain of discrete choice analysis in econom......The apparatus of the Random Utility Model (RUM) first emerged in the early 1960s, with Marschak (1960) and Block and Marschak (1960) translating models originally developed for discriminant analysis in psychophysics (Thurstone, 1927) to the alternative domain of discrete choice analysis...

  3. A case of a laptop learning campus: how do technology choices affect perceptions?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer Percival

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Laptop learning programs have been developed to create ubiquitous online learning environments. Given the infancy of many programs, there is little understanding of aspects of the program are perceived to provide value to faculty and students. This paper focuses on the value proposition (with respect to perceived benefits versus capital investment for undergraduate students in a mandatory, campus-wide, comprehensive laptop learning program. Results indicate that the perceived value of the laptop for technical programs such as science, engineering, and information technology, and liberal arts programs such as business and criminology, justice, and policy studies are significantly different. This difference results in a clear need to use different laptop learning models for each type of program and that a single campus-wide model will likely prove unsatisfactory for most students. A need to better communicate the true value of industry-specific software and skills acquisition is also highlighted.

  4. Memory-Based Simple Heuristics as Attribute Substitution: Competitive Tests of Binary Choice Inference Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honda, Hidehito; Matsuka, Toshihiko; Ueda, Kazuhiro

    2016-07-20

    Some researchers on binary choice inference have argued that people make inferences based on simple heuristics, such as recognition, fluency, or familiarity. Others have argued that people make inferences based on available knowledge. To examine the boundary between heuristic and knowledge usage, we examine binary choice inference processes in terms of attribute substitution in heuristic use (Kahneman & Frederick, 2005). In this framework, it is predicted that people will rely on heuristic or knowledge-based inference depending on the subjective difficulty of the inference task. We conducted competitive tests of binary choice inference models representing simple heuristics (fluency and familiarity heuristics) and knowledge-based inference models. We found that a simple heuristic model (especially a familiarity heuristic model) explained inference patterns for subjectively difficult inference tasks, and that a knowledge-based inference model explained subjectively easy inference tasks. These results were consistent with the predictions of the attribute substitution framework. Issues on usage of simple heuristics and psychological processes are discussed.

  5. The drift diffusion model as the choice rule in reinforcement learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedersen, Mads Lund; Frank, Michael J; Biele, Guido

    2016-12-13

    Current reinforcement-learning models often assume simplified decision processes that do not fully reflect the dynamic complexities of choice processes. Conversely, sequential-sampling models of decision making account for both choice accuracy and response time, but assume that decisions are based on static decision values. To combine these two computational models of decision making and learning, we implemented reinforcement-learning models in which the drift diffusion model describes the choice process, thereby capturing both within- and across-trial dynamics. To exemplify the utility of this approach, we quantitatively fit data from a common reinforcement-learning paradigm using hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation, and compared model variants to determine whether they could capture the effects of stimulant medication in adult patients with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). The model with the best relative fit provided a good description of the learning process, choices, and response times. A parameter recovery experiment showed that the hierarchical Bayesian modeling approach enabled accurate estimation of the model parameters. The model approach described here, using simultaneous estimation of reinforcement-learning and drift diffusion model parameters, shows promise for revealing new insights into the cognitive and neural mechanisms of learning and decision making, as well as the alteration of such processes in clinical groups.

  6. MATHEMATICAL MODELLING OF PREFERED SOLUTIONS CHOICE FUNCTION FOR TUBULAR GAS HEATERS BY EXPERIMENTAL INFORMATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BARSUK R. V.

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Annotation. Problems formulation. The article deals with choice functions building of preferred solutions by experimental information for tubular gas heater working on fuel granules - pellets.Further choice functions using for making technical solutions by tubular gas heaters construction and designing. Recently research analysis. There are works about choice functions construction by separate presents are examined. But full chose functions building by separate presents are not examined. Aims and tasks. There are setting aim to develop full choice functions mathematical model on separate presents by authors. The expert are connect to primary experimental data’s evaluation that estimates separate results by output functions (criteria. Its evaluations issue in experimental points paired comparison’s table form. Thus, there are necessary construct binary choice relations presents on experimental “points” set by expert that then using for full choice function’s constructing. Conclusions. There are choice function’s construction’s sequence are sets. There are posed point comparison results that characterized tubular gas heater’s condition with expert’s evaluation using. Also posed output functions comparisons by which can be characterized improving tubular gas heater’s performance or vice versa.

  7. Modelling travel time perception in transport mode choices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Varotto, S.F.; Glerum, A.; Stathopoulos, A.; Bierlaire, M.; Longo, G.

    2015-01-01

    Travel behaviour models typically rely on data afflicted by errors, in perception (e.g., over/under-estimation by traveller) and measurement (e.g., software or researcher imputation error). Such errors are shown to have a relevant impact on model outputs. So far a comprehensive framework to deal

  8. A LATENT TRAIT MODEL FOR DICHOTOMOUS CHOICE DATA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    HOIJTINK, H

    1990-01-01

    The PARELLA model is a probabilistic parallelogram model that can be used for the measurement of latent attitudes or latent preferences. The data analyzed are the dichotomous responses of persons to stimuli, with a one (zero) indicating agreement (disagreement) with the content of the stimulus. The

  9. Models of Teaching: Indicators Influencing Teachers' Perception of Pedagogical Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nordyke, Alison Michelle

    2011-01-01

    The models of teaching are systematic tools that allow teachers to vary their classroom pedagogical practices to meet the needs of all learners in their classroom. This study was designed to determine key factors that influence teachers' decisions when determining a model of teaching for classroom instruction and to identify how teacher training…

  10. Evaluating choices in multi-process landscape evolution models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Temme, A.J.A.M.; Claessens, L.; Veldkamp, A.; Schoorl, J.M.

    2011-01-01

    The interest in landscape evolution models (LEMs) that simulate multiple landscape processes is growing. However, modelling multiple processes constitutes a new starting point for which some aspects of the set up of LEMs must be re-evaluated. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the practic

  11. Models of Teaching: Indicators Influencing Teachers' Perception of Pedagogical Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nordyke, Alison Michelle

    2011-01-01

    The models of teaching are systematic tools that allow teachers to vary their classroom pedagogical practices to meet the needs of all learners in their classroom. This study was designed to determine key factors that influence teachers' decisions when determining a model of teaching for classroom instruction and to identify how teacher training…

  12. Modelling travel time perception in transport mode choices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Varotto, S.F.; Glerum, A.; Stathopoulos, A.; Bierlaire, M.; Longo, G.

    2015-01-01

    Travel behaviour models typically rely on data afflicted by errors, in perception (e.g., over/under-estimation by traveller) and measurement (e.g., software or researcher imputation error). Such errors are shown to have a relevant impact on model outputs. So far a comprehensive framework to deal wit

  13. Model choice considerations and information integration using analytical hierarchy process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Langenbrunner, James R [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hemez, Francois M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Booker, Jane M [BOOKER SCIENTIFIC; Ross, Timothy J. [UNM

    2010-10-15

    Using the theory of information-gap for decision-making under severe uncertainty, it has been shown that model output compared to experimental data contains irrevocable trade-offs between fidelity-to-data, robustness-to-uncertainty and confidence-in-prediction. We illustrate a strategy for information integration by gathering and aggregating all available data, knowledge, theory, experience, similar applications. Such integration of information becomes important when the physics is difficult to model, when observational data are sparse or difficult to measure, or both. To aggregate the available information, we take an inference perspective. Models are not rejected, nor wasted, but can be integrated into a final result. We show an example of information integration using Saaty's Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), integrating theory, simulation output and experimental data. We used expert elicitation to determine weights for two models and two experimental data sets, by forming pair-wise comparisons between model output and experimental data. In this way we transform epistemic and/or statistical strength from one field of study into another branch of physical application. The price to pay for utilizing all available knowledge is that inferences drawn for the integrated information must be accounted for and the costs can be considerable. Focusing on inferences and inference uncertainty (IU) is one way to understand complex information.

  14. Collaboration for Technological Innovation: Choices and Decisions that Make Partnerships Excel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonia Regina Mangiavacchi Tuccori

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to understand the relationship between strategies and collaborative organizational arrangements and the defining of their position within the corporate power structure. The strategic approach employed herein is that of case studies so as to comprehend the peculiarities and the value proposition of the management model of innovation networks at a Brazilian company that operates in the personal hygiene, perfumery and cosmetics segment. To excel within an environment marked by increased global competition, companies have to develop and learn with an innovative work structure and culture. This derives from the rapid shortening of product life cycles which drives the need to innovate at more frequent intervals and to develop technologies, processes, products and/or services more efficiently. Furthermore, given increased product, technologies and processes complexity, attention is drawn to the expansion of costs and risks to innovate to the extent of enhancing uncertainties and pressure on R&D+i (Research, Development and Innovation budgets. Meanwhile, the need for interdisciplinarity by means of cooperation likewise comes to light.

  15. Quantitative Analysis of Complex Multiple-Choice Items in Science Technology and Society: Item Scaling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ángel Vázquez Alonso

    2005-05-01

    Full Text Available The scarce attention to assessment and evaluation in science education research has been especially harmful for Science-Technology-Society (STS education, due to the dialectic, tentative, value-laden, and controversial nature of most STS topics. To overcome the methodological pitfalls of the STS assessment instruments used in the past, an empirically developed instrument (VOSTS, Views on Science-Technology-Society have been suggested. Some methodological proposals, namely the multiple response models and the computing of a global attitudinal index, were suggested to improve the item implementation. The final step of these methodological proposals requires the categorization of STS statements. This paper describes the process of categorization through a scaling procedure ruled by a panel of experts, acting as judges, according to the body of knowledge from history, epistemology, and sociology of science. The statement categorization allows for the sound foundation of STS items, which is useful in educational assessment and science education research, and may also increase teachers’ self-confidence in the development of the STS curriculum for science classrooms.

  16. Collaboration for Technological Innovation: Choices and Decisions that Make Partnerships Excel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonia Regina Mangiavacchi Tuccori

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to understand the relationship between strategies and collaborative organizational arrangements and the defining of their position within the corporate power structure. The strategic approach employed herein is that of case studies so as to comprehend the peculiarities and the value proposition of the management model of innovation networks at a Brazilian company that operates in the personal hygiene, perfumery and cosmetics segment. To excel within an environment marked by increased global competition, companies have to develop and learn with an innovative work structure and culture. This derives from the rapid shortening of product life cycles which drives the need to innovate at more frequent intervals and to develop technologies, processes, products and/or services more efficiently. Furthermore, given increased product, technologies and processes complexity, attention is drawn to the expansion of costs and risks to innovate to the extent of enhancing uncertainties and pressure on R&D+i (Research, Development and Innovation budgets. Meanwhile, the need for interdisciplinarity by means of cooperation likewise comes to light.

  17. Integrating economic and psychological insights in binary choice models with social interactions

    CERN Document Server

    Ostasiewicz, K; Magnuszewski, P; Radosz, A; Sendzimir, J; Tyc, M H; Goliczewski, Piotr; Magnuszewski, Piotr; Ostasiewicz, Katarzyna; Radosz, Andrzej; Sendzimir, Jan; Tyc, Michal H.

    2006-01-01

    We investigate a class of binary choice models with social interactions. We propose a unifying perspective that integrates economic models using a utility function and psychological models using an impact function. A general approach for analyzing the equilibrium structure of these models within mean-field approximation is developed. It is shown that within a mean-field approach both the utility function and the impact function models are equivalent to threshold models. The interplay between heterogeneity and randomness in model formulation is discussed. A general framework is applied in a number of examples leading to some well-known models but also showing the possibility of more complex dynamics related to multiple equilibria. Our synthesis can provide a basis for many practical applications extending the scope of binary choice models.

  18. Extended cox regression model: The choice of timefunction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isik, Hatice; Tutkun, Nihal Ata; Karasoy, Durdu

    2017-07-01

    Cox regression model (CRM), which takes into account the effect of censored observations, is one the most applicative and usedmodels in survival analysis to evaluate the effects of covariates. Proportional hazard (PH), requires a constant hazard ratio over time, is the assumptionofCRM. Using extended CRM provides the test of including a time dependent covariate to assess the PH assumption or an alternative model in case of nonproportional hazards. In this study, the different types of real data sets are used to choose the time function and the differences between time functions are analyzed and discussed.

  19. Choice and Participation of Career by STEM Professionals with Sensory and Orthopedic Disabilities and the Roles of Assistive Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pacheco, Heather A.

    This is a qualitative study about sources of self-efficacy and roles of assistive technologies (AT) associated with the science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) choice and participation of STEM professionals and graduate students with sensory and orthopedic disabilities. People with disabilities are underrepresented in STEM, which can be traced back along the STEM pipeline to early undergraduate participation in STEM. Little research exists, however, about pathways and factors associated with successful STEM participation for people with disabilities at any point along their trajectories. Eighteen STEM professionals and graduate students with sensory and orthopedic disabilities were interviewed for this study. Sources of self-efficacy were sought from interview transcripts, as were emergent themes associated with the types, uses and roles of AT. Findings suggest that people with sensory and orthopedic disabilities weigh sources of self-efficacy differently from white males without disabilities in STEM and more like other underrepresented minorities in STEM. Social persuasions were most frequently reported and in far more detail than other sources, suggesting that this source may be most impactful in the development of self-efficacy beliefs for this group. Additionally, findings indicate that AT is critical to the successful participation of people with sensory and orthopedic disabilities in STEM at all points along their STEM pathways. Barriers center around issues of access to full engagement in mainstream STEM classrooms and out of school opportunities as well as the impact of ill-informed perceptions about the capabilities of people with disabilities held by parents, teachers and college faculty who can act as gatekeepers along STEM pathways. Gaps in disability specialists' knowledge about STEM-specific assistive technologies, especially at the college level, are also problematic. The prevalence of mainstream public school attendance reported by

  20. 企业技术范围选择:技术多元化还是技术专业化%Enterprise Technological Scope Choice: Technological Diversification or Technological Specialization

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    贾军; 张卓

    2012-01-01

    Although the topic of technological diversification has been a major source of research in recent years, only a few studies have explored the influence factors of technological scope choice. After reviewing the related literatures, the paper analyzes the influence factors of technological scope and puts forward a conceptual model. By taking china high-tech listed companied from 2004-2010 panel data as an example and establishing multiple linear regression analysis model, the paper empirically tested the conceptual model from the perspective of the firm's environment, operation and resources. The results show that the firm's environment and resources influences the technological scope choice significantly, while the firm's operation is supported partially. It is obvious that tech- nological scope is contingent on multiple factors. This study provides an integrative guideline for manager, and they should find a 'conforming' technological scope to generate more profits.%近年来,技术多元化受到了越来越多学者的关注,但仅有少数研究探索了技术范围选择的影响因素。在回顾相关文献的基础上,分析了影响技术范围选择的因素,并提出了概念模型。采用中国高技术上市公司2004--2010年面板数据,建立多元线性回归分析模型,从企业外部环境、运营状况以及组织备用资源的角度实证分析技术范围选择与影响因素的关系。结果表明,企业环境与组织备用资源显著地影响了技术范围选择,而企业运营状况因素中仅部分指标对其产生影响。技术范围选择由多种因素决定,实证结果提供了综合的指导,为企业选择“适合”的技术范围获得更多利润提供了依据。

  1. A Stochastic Route Choice Model for Car Travellers in the Copenhagen Region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Otto Anker; Frederiksen, Rasmus Dyhr; Daly, A.

    2002-01-01

    The paper presents a large-scale stochastic road traffic assignment model for the Copenhagen Region. The model considers several classes of passenger cars (different trip purposes), vans and trucks, each with its own utility function on which route choices are based. The utility functions include...

  2. A discrete choice model with social interactions : an analysis of high school teen behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kooreman, Peter; Soetevent, Adriaan

    2002-01-01

    We develop an empirical discrete choice model that explicitly allows for endogenous social interactions. We analyze the issues of multiple equilibria, statistical coherency, and estimation of the model by means of simulation methods. In an empirical application, we analyze a data set containing info

  3. Perceived and Implicit Ranking of Academic Journals: An Optimization Choice Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Frank Tian; Cai, Jane Z.; Pan, Yue

    2012-01-01

    A new system of ranking academic journals is proposed in this study and optimization choice model used to analyze data collected from 346 faculty members in a business discipline. The ranking model uses the aggregation of perceived, implicit sequencing of academic journals by academicians, therefore eliminating several key shortcomings of previous…

  4. Discrete choice modeling for the quantification of health states: the case of the EQ-5D.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stolk, E.A.; Oppe, M.; Scalone, L.; Krabbe, P.F.M.

    2010-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Probabilistic models have been developed to establish the relative merit of subjective phenomena by means of specific judgmental tasks involving discrete choices (DCs). The attractiveness of these DC models is that they are embedded in a strong theoretical measurement framework and are b

  5. Discrete choice modeling for the quantification of health states : The case of the EQ-5D

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stolk, Elly A; Oppe, Mark; Scalone, Luciana; Krabbe, Paul F M

    2010-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Probabilistic models have been developed to establish the relative merit of subjective phenomena by means of specific judgmental tasks involving discrete choices (DCs). The attractiveness of these DC models is that they are embedded in a strong theoretical measurement framework and are b

  6. A discrete choice model with social interactions; with an application to high school teen behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soetevent, Adriaan R.; Kooreman, Peter

    2004-01-01

    We develop an empirical discrete choice interaction model with a finite number of agents. We characterize its equilibrium properties - in particular the correspondence between the interaction strength, the number of agents, and the set of equilibria - and propose to estimate the model by means of

  7. A discrete choice model with social interactions; with an application to high school teen behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soetevent, A.R.; Kooreman, P.

    2007-01-01

    We develop an empirical discrete-choice interaction model with a finite number of agents. We characterize its equilibrium properties - in particular the correspondence between interaction strength, number of agents, and the set of equilibria - and propose to estimate the model by means of simulation

  8. A discrete-choice model with social interactions : With an application to high school teen behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soetevent, Adriaan R.; Kooreman, Peter

    2007-01-01

    We develop an empirical discrete-choice interaction model with a finite number of agents. We characterize its equilibrium properties-in particular the correspondence between interaction strength, number of agents, and the set of equilibria-and propose to estimate the model by means of simulation

  9. A discrete choice model with social interactions : an analysis of high school teen behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kooreman, Peter; Soetevent, Adriaan

    2002-01-01

    We develop an empirical discrete choice model that explicitly allows for endogenous social interactions. We analyze the issues of multiple equilibria, statistical coherency, and estimation of the model by means of simulation methods. In an empirical application, we analyze a data set containing

  10. Decision-Tree Models of Categorization Response Times, Choice Proportions, and Typicality Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lafond, Daniel; Lacouture, Yves; Cohen, Andrew L.

    2009-01-01

    The authors present 3 decision-tree models of categorization adapted from T. Trabasso, H. Rollins, and E. Shaughnessy (1971) and use them to provide a quantitative account of categorization response times, choice proportions, and typicality judgments at the individual-participant level. In Experiment 1, the decision-tree models were fit to…

  11. Decision-Tree Models of Categorization Response Times, Choice Proportions, and Typicality Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lafond, Daniel; Lacouture, Yves; Cohen, Andrew L.

    2009-01-01

    The authors present 3 decision-tree models of categorization adapted from T. Trabasso, H. Rollins, and E. Shaughnessy (1971) and use them to provide a quantitative account of categorization response times, choice proportions, and typicality judgments at the individual-participant level. In Experiment 1, the decision-tree models were fit to…

  12. Modeling anger and aggressive driving behavior in a dynamic choice-latent variable model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danaf, Mazen; Abou-Zeid, Maya; Kaysi, Isam

    2015-02-01

    This paper develops a hybrid choice-latent variable model combined with a Hidden Markov model in order to analyze the causes of aggressive driving and forecast its manifestations accordingly. The model is grounded in the state-trait anger theory; it treats trait driving anger as a latent variable that is expressed as a function of individual characteristics, or as an agent effect, and state anger as a dynamic latent variable that evolves over time and affects driving behavior, and that is expressed as a function of trait anger, frustrating events, and contextual variables (e.g., geometric roadway features, flow conditions, etc.). This model may be used in order to test measures aimed at reducing aggressive driving behavior and improving road safety, and can be incorporated into micro-simulation packages to represent aggressive driving. The paper also presents an application of this model to data obtained from a driving simulator experiment performed at the American University of Beirut. The results derived from this application indicate that state anger at a specific time period is significantly affected by the occurrence of frustrating events, trait anger, and the anger experienced at the previous time period. The proposed model exhibited a better goodness of fit compared to a similar simple joint model where driving behavior and decisions are expressed as a function of the experienced events explicitly and not the dynamic latent variable.

  13. The effects of Georgia's Choice curricular reform model on third grade science scores on the Georgia Criterion Referenced Competency Test

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phemister, Art W.

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of the Georgia's Choice reading curriculum on third grade science scores on the Georgia Criterion Referenced Competency Test from 2002 to 2008. In assessing the effectiveness of the Georgia's Choice curriculum model this causal comparative study examined the 105 elementary schools that implemented Georgia's Choice and 105 randomly selected elementary schools that did not elect to use Georgia's Choice. The Georgia's Choice reading program used intensified instruction in an effort to increase reading levels for all students. The study used a non-equivalent control group with a pretest and posttest design to determine the effectiveness of the Georgia's Choice curriculum model. Findings indicated that third grade students in Non-Georgia's Choice schools outscored third grade students in Georgia's Choice schools across the span of the study.

  14. A Maximum Entropy Fixed-Point Route Choice Model for Route Correlation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louis de Grange

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we present a stochastic route choice model for transit networks that explicitly addresses route correlation due to overlapping alternatives. The model is based on a multi-objective mathematical programming problem, the optimality conditions of which generate an extension to the Multinomial Logit models. The proposed model considers a fixed point problem for treating correlations between routes, which can be solved iteratively. We estimated the new model on the Santiago (Chile Metro network and compared the results with other route choice models that can be found in the literature. The new model has better explanatory and predictive power that many other alternative models, correctly capturing the correlation factor. Our methodology can be extended to private transport networks.

  15. Towards an Informed Citizenry? Information- and communication technologies and electoral choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.R. Edwards (Arthur)

    1998-01-01

    textabstractWhat is the significance of ICT's for voting decisions? This chapter assesses two uses of ICT's: (1) databases of the voting records of representatives, and (2) a decision support system for party choice. It examines the information-seeking behavior of (prospective and retrospective) vot

  16. Modeling issues & choices in the data mining optimization ontology

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Keet, CM

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available investigating aspects such as DMOP object prop- erties, the effects of ObjectInverseOf vs. InverseObjectProperties, and the deductions with respect to the DM algorithms branch and metamodeling. DMOP (version 5.2) has already been applied successfully to the meta...TransformationTask). These classes are further articulated in subclasses representing more fine-grained tasks for each category. An Induction- Task consumes data and produces hypotheses. It can be either a ModelingTask or a PatternDiscoveryTask, based on whether it generates...

  17. Removing Specification Errors from the Usual Formulation of Binary Choice Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P.A.V.B. Swamy

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available We develop a procedure for removing four major specification errors from the usual formulation of binary choice models. The model that results from this procedure is different from the conventional probit and logit models. This difference arises as a direct consequence of our relaxation of the usual assumption that omitted regressors constituting the error term of a latent linear regression model do not introduce omitted regressor biases into the coefficients of the included regressors.

  18. Innovations and airborne pollutants. An economic assessment of the influence of different boundary conditions with explicit modelling of the choice of technology in the industrial sector. Interim report - documentation for the steel industry; Innovationen und Luftschadstoffemissionen. Eine gesamtwirtschaftliche Abschaetzung des Einflusses unterschiedlicher Rahmenbedingungen bei expliziter Modellierung der Technologiewahl im Industriesektor. Zwischenbericht - Dokumentation Stahlindustrie

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schleich, J.; Nathani, C.; Ostertag, K.; Schoen, M.; Walz, R.; Meyer, B.; Lutz, C.; Distelkamp, M.; Wolter, M.I.; Hohmann, F.

    2002-04-01

    The project attempted an improved modelling of technological progress. For this, the basic technological processes of selected energy-intensive sectors of the econometric input-output model PANTA RHEI are mapped in a model-consistent systematics. Technological progress is assumed to derive from the modelled decision making behaviour during selection of a technology. Apart from an improved assessment of the economic and environmental effects of political decisions, also the innovation effects are modelled. Further, politically induced technological progress is reduced explicitly to technologies. [German] Ziel des Projekts ist eine methodisch verbesserte Modellierung des technischen Fortschritts. Dazu werden fuer ausgewaehlte energieintensive Branchen des oekonometrischen Input-Output Modells PANTA RHEI die zugrunde liegenden technologischen Prozesse in einer modellkonsistenten Systematik abgebildet. Ein weiteres innovatives Element besteht darin, dass technischer Fortschritt auf das modellierte Entscheidungsverhalten bei der Technikwahl zurueckgefuehrt werden kann. Die gewaehlte Modellierung erlaubt nicht nur eine verbesserte Abschaetzung der durch Politikmassnahmen ausgeloesten gesamtwirtschaftlichen und der umweltrelevanten Wirkungen, sondern auch eine Bewertung der Innovationseffekte. Ausserdem laesst sich politik-induzierter, technischer Fortschritt explizit auf Technologien zurueckfuehren. (orig.)

  19. Collation of Scientific Evidence on Consumer Acceptance of New Food Technologies: Three roads to consumer choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fischer, A.R.H.; Trijp, van J.C.M.; Hofenk, D.J.B.; Ronteltap, A.; Tudoran, A.A.

    2012-01-01

    The current report investigates consumer acceptance of new food technologies by reviewing the scientific literature. The review is organised along three routes to consumer acceptance of new technologies: The consumer benefit road: the central road of technology features influencing experienced produ

  20. Fitting a Thurstonian IRT model to forced-choice data using Mplus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Anna; Maydeu-Olivares, Alberto

    2012-12-01

    To counter response distortions associated with the use of rating scales (a.k.a. Likert scales), items can be presented in a comparative fashion, so that respondents are asked to rank the items within blocks (forced-choice format). However, classical scoring procedures for these forced-choice designs lead to ipsative data, which presents psychometric challenges that are well described in the literature. Recently, Brown and Maydeu-Olivares (Educational and Psychological Measurement 71: 460-502, 2011a) introduced a model based on Thurstone's law of comparative judgment, which overcomes the problems of ipsative data. Here, we provide a step-by-step tutorial for coding forced-choice responses, specifying a Thurstonian item response theory model that is appropriate for the design used, assessing the model's fit, and scoring individuals on psychological attributes. Estimation and scoring is performed using Mplus, and a very straightforward Excel macro is provided that writes full Mplus input files for any forced-choice design. Armed with these tools, using a forced-choice design is now as easy as using ratings.

  1. A social perceptual approach to freight transport modal choice

    OpenAIRE

    Gray, R.

    1990-01-01

    This research develops a conceptual model of freight modal choice in which the basic unit of analysis is the socio-organisational group. Research into freight modal choice at the level of the firm has tended to disregard the nature of human choice and to assume that modal choice can be explained in terms of technological phenomena or cost relationships. There is also a tendency to equate the modal choice of organisational members with the modal use of firms. The approa...

  2. Modelling in Medical Technology Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B.C. Michel (Bowine)

    1996-01-01

    textabstractHealth care is a rapidly developing field in which new technologies are introduced continuously. Not all new technologies have the same impact however: most represent only small changes in existing technologies, whereas only a few - like organ transplants - really are revolutionary new d

  3. Approximate group context tree: applications to dynamic programming and dynamic choice models

    CERN Document Server

    Belloni, Alexandre

    2011-01-01

    The paper considers a variable length Markov chain model associated with a group of stationary processes that share the same context tree but potentially different conditional probabilities. We propose a new model selection and estimation method, develop oracle inequalities and model selection properties for the estimator. These results also provide conditions under which the use of the group structure can lead to improvements in the overall estimation. Our work is also motivated by two methodological applications: discrete stochastic dynamic programming and dynamic discrete choice models. We analyze the uniform estimation of the value function for dynamic programming and the uniform estimation of average dynamic marginal effects for dynamic discrete choice models accounting for possible imperfect model selection. We also derive the typical behavior of our estimator when applied to polynomially $\\beta$-mixing stochastic processes. For parametric models, we derive uniform rate of convergence for the estimation...

  4. Understanding the Effect of Baseline Modeling Implementation Choices on Analysis of Demand Response Performance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    University of California, Berkeley; Addy, Nathan; Kiliccote, Sila; Mathieu, Johanna; Callaway, Duncan S.

    2012-06-13

    Accurate evaluation of the performance of buildings participating in Demand Response (DR) programs is critical to the adoption and improvement of these programs. Typically, we calculate load sheds during DR events by comparing observed electric demand against counterfactual predictions made using statistical baseline models. Many baseline models exist and these models can produce different shed calculations. Moreover, modelers implementing the same baseline model can make different modeling implementation choices, which may affect shed estimates. In this work, using real data, we analyze the effect of different modeling implementation choices on shed predictions. We focused on five issues: weather data source, resolution of data, methods for determining when buildings are occupied, methods for aligning building data with temperature data, and methods for power outage filtering. Results indicate sensitivity to the weather data source and data filtration methods as well as an immediate potential for automation of methods to choose building occupied modes.

  5. Species sensitivity distribution for chlorpyrifos to aquatic organisms: Model choice and sample size.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Jinsong; Chen, Boyu

    2016-03-01

    Species sensitivity distribution (SSD) is a widely used model that extrapolates the ecological risk to ecosystem levels from the ecotoxicity of a chemical to individual organisms. However, model choice and sample size significantly affect the development of the SSD model and the estimation of hazardous concentrations at the 5th centile (HC5). To interpret their effects, the SSD model for chlorpyrifos, a widely used organophosphate pesticide, to aquatic organisms is presented with emphases on model choice and sample size. Three subsets of median effective concentration (EC50) with different sample sizes were obtained from ECOTOX and used to build SSD models based on parametric distribution (normal, logistic, and triangle distribution) and nonparametric bootstrap. The SSD models based on the triangle distribution are superior to the normal and logistic distributions according to several goodness-of-fit techniques. Among all parametric SSD models, the one with the largest sample size based on the triangle distribution gives the most strict HC5 with 0.141μmolL(-1). The HC5 derived from the nonparametric bootstrap is 0.159μmol L(-1). The minimum sample size required to build a stable SSD model is 11 based on parametric distribution and 23 based on nonparametric bootstrap. The study suggests that model choice and sample size are important sources of uncertainty for application of the SSD model. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. An integrated model of choices and response times in absolute identification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Scott D; Marley, A A J; Donkin, Christopher; Heathcote, Andrew

    2008-04-01

    Recent theoretical developments in the field of absolute identification have stressed differences between relative and absolute processes, that is, whether stimulus magnitudes are judged relative to a shorter term context provided by recently presented stimuli or a longer term context provided by the entire set of stimuli. The authors developed a model (SAMBA: selective attention, mapping, and ballistic accumulation) that integrates shorter and longer term memory processes and accounts for both the choices made and the associated response time distributions, including sequential effects in each. The model's predictions arise as a consequence of its architecture and require estimation of only a few parameters with values that are consistent across numerous data sets. The authors show that SAMBA provides a quantitative account of benchmark choice phenomena in classical absolute identification experiments and in contemporary data involving both choice and response time.

  7. Seismic Physical Modeling Technology and Its Applications

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    This paper introduces the seismic physical modeling technology in the CNPC Key Lab of Geophysical Exploration. It includes the seismic physical model positioning system, the data acquisition system, sources, transducers,model materials, model building techniques, precision measurements of model geometry, the basic principles of the seismic physical modeling and experimental methods, and two physical model examples.

  8. Critical issues in the choice of appropriate communication technology by Third World countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonaike, S A

    1987-01-01

    Recent experience suggests that the most appropriate form of technology for the Third World is an adapted, intermediate (less capital intensive) technology, founded around the needs of the people and utilizing readily available resources. When technology is used to relieve the symptoms of underdevelopment, a technologic misfit manifested in an overemphasis on prestige projects and the urban industrial sector results. Advanced communication technologies such as satellites are generally capital intensive, require high technical skills to install and maintain, and need sophisticated levels of management to function properly. These conditions are not easily met in the Third World, underscoring the need for intermediate technology as manifested in small and medium-sized business enterprises. Such an approach blends traditional technology, minimal capital, simple management structure, ample labor, and humane operation with the gains from sophisticated technology. Intermediate technology can serve as a good training ground for indigenous people in modern business methods and provide jobs for the unemployed. Most importantly, intermediate technology can function as an integral part of the larger society rather than as a loosely attached appendage grafted on by some foreign country. In the field of communication, such an approach would manifest itself in a willingness to operate professionally with simple portable cameras, an acceptance of the importance of rural radio broadcasting and village newspapers, a willingness on the part of trained media professionals to try out locally produced hardware, and an exploration of cheaper ways of producing textbooks.

  9. Assessment of medical technology students' perceptions of clinical site rotations and job choice criteria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuart, J Michele; Fenn, Joann P

    2004-01-01

    This study reflects an assessment conducted at the University of Utah to determine medical laboratory science students' perceptions and influence of clinical rotations on job choice criteria. A mixed method design was used, incorporating semistructured interviews and mailed questionnaires. This study identified both favorable as well as unfavorable factors that influence students' employment choices. Clinical managers should: 1) foster a positive organizational climate; 2) encourage constructive employee-student interaction and respect; 3) promote the clinical facilities' reputation of excellence in health care; and 4) continue to offer competitive wages and employee benefits. Clinical managers should avoid: 1) a lack of positive attitudes toward students; and 2) a lack of respect for the student's knowledge. This study provides crucial information for laboratory directors, managers, and supervisors who are interested in creating an ideal climate in which to recruit graduating medical laboratory science (MLS) students.

  10. Nonlinear Calibration Model Choice between the Four and Five Parameter Logistic Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cumberland, William N.; Fong, Youyi; Yu, Xuesong; Defawe, Olivier; Frahm, Nicole; De Rosa, Stephen

    2014-01-01

    Both the four-parameter logistic (4PL) and the five-parameter logistic (5PL) models are widely used in nonlinear calibration. In this paper, we study the choice between 5PL and 4PL both by the accuracy and precision of the estimated concentrations and by the power to detect an association between a binary disease outcome and the estimated concentrations. Our results show that when the true curve is symmetric around its inflection point, the efficiency loss from using 5PL is negligible under the prevalent experimental design. When the true curve is asymmetric, 4PL may sometimes offer better performance due to bias-variance trade-off. We provide a practical guideline for choosing between 5PL and 4PL and illustrate its application with a real dataset from the HIV Vaccine Trials Network laboratory. PMID:24918306

  11. An alternative approach for choice models in transportation: Use of possibility theory for comparison of utilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dell’orco Mauro

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Modeling of human choice mechanism has been a topic of intense discussion in the transportation community for many years. The framework of modeling has been rooted in probability theory in which the analyst’s uncertainty about the integrity of the model is expressed in probability. In most choice situations, the decision-maker (traveler also experiences uncertainty because of the lack of complete information on the choices. In the traditional modeling framework, the uncertainty of the analyst and that of the decision-maker are both embedded in the same random term and not clearly separated. While the analyst's uncertainty may be represented by probability due to the statistical nature of events, that of the decision maker, however, is not always subjected to randomness; rather, it is the perceptive uncertainty. This paper proposes a modeling framework that attempts to account for the decision maker’s uncertainty by possibility theory and then the analyst's uncertainty by probability theory. The possibility to probability transformation is performed using the principle of uncertainty invariance. The proposed approach accounts for the quality of information on the changes in choice probability. The paper discusses the thought process, mathematics of possibility theory and probability transformation, and examples.

  12. Using Bayesian hierarchical parameter estimation to assess the generalizability of cognitive models of choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheibehenne, Benjamin; Pachur, Thorsten

    2015-04-01

    To be useful, cognitive models with fitted parameters should show generalizability across time and allow accurate predictions of future observations. It has been proposed that hierarchical procedures yield better estimates of model parameters than do nonhierarchical, independent approaches, because the formers' estimates for individuals within a group can mutually inform each other. Here, we examine Bayesian hierarchical approaches to evaluating model generalizability in the context of two prominent models of risky choice-cumulative prospect theory (Tversky & Kahneman, 1992) and the transfer-of-attention-exchange model (Birnbaum & Chavez, 1997). Using empirical data of risky choices collected for each individual at two time points, we compared the use of hierarchical versus independent, nonhierarchical Bayesian estimation techniques to assess two aspects of model generalizability: parameter stability (across time) and predictive accuracy. The relative performance of hierarchical versus independent estimation varied across the different measures of generalizability. The hierarchical approach improved parameter stability (in terms of a lower absolute discrepancy of parameter values across time) and predictive accuracy (in terms of deviance; i.e., likelihood). With respect to test-retest correlations and posterior predictive accuracy, however, the hierarchical approach did not outperform the independent approach. Further analyses suggested that this was due to strong correlations between some parameters within both models. Such intercorrelations make it difficult to identify and interpret single parameters and can induce high degrees of shrinkage in hierarchical models. Similar findings may also occur in the context of other cognitive models of choice.

  13. A Research Brief: A Novel Characteristic of Role Model Choice by Black Male College Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, B. J.; Davis, R.; Harris, A.; Brown, K.; Wood, P.; Jones, D. R.; Spencer, S.; Nelson, L.; Brown, J.; Waddell, T.; Jones, C. B.

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of the present research brief is to report a novel characteristic of role model choice that may be unreported in the literature for black males and to assess this finding in relation to perceived attractiveness of self and a member of the opposite sex. The study found that the proportion of males choosing themselves as their own role…

  14. A Regime Switching Model of Schooling Choice as a Job Search Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yong Hyun Shin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose a regime switching model of schooling choice as a job search process. We adopt a two-state Markov process and the derived coupled Bellman equations are solved by seeking the root of an auxiliary algebraic equation. Some numerical examples are also considered.

  15. Cognitive Diagnostic Models for Tests with Multiple-Choice and Constructed-Response Items

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuo, Bor-Chen; Chen, Chun-Hua; Yang, Chih-Wei; Mok, Magdalena Mo Ching

    2016-01-01

    Traditionally, teachers evaluate students' abilities via their total test scores. Recently, cognitive diagnostic models (CDMs) have begun to provide information about the presence or absence of students' skills or misconceptions. Nevertheless, CDMs are typically applied to tests with multiple-choice (MC) items, which provide less diagnostic…

  16. Multiple data sets and modelling choices in a comparative LCA of disposable beverage cups

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Harst, van der E.J.M.; Potting, J.; Kroeze, C.

    2014-01-01

    This study used multiple data sets and modelling choices in an environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) to compare typical disposable beverage cups made from polystyrene (PS), polylactic acid (PLA; bioplastic) and paper lined with bioplastic (biopaper). Incineration and recycling were considered as

  17. Stochastic user equilibrium with equilibrated choice sets: Part I - Model formulations under alternative distributions and restrictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Watling, David Paul; Rasmussen, Thomas Kjær; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2015-01-01

    the advantages of the two principles, namely the definition of unused routes in DUE and of mis-perception in SUE, such that the resulting choice sets of used routes are equilibrated. Two model families are formulated to address this issue: the first is a general version of SUE permitting bounded and discrete...

  18. Probabilistic choice models in health-state valuation research : background, theories, assumptions and applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arons, Alexander M M; Krabbe, Paul F M

    2013-01-01

    Interest is rising in measuring subjective health outcomes, such as treatment outcomes that are not directly quantifiable (functional disability, symptoms, complaints, side effects and health-related quality of life). Health economists in particular have applied probabilistic choice models in the ar

  19. Probabilistic choice models in health-state valuation research: background, theories, assumptions and applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arons, A.M.M.; Krabbe, P.F.M.

    2013-01-01

    Interest is rising in measuring subjective health outcomes, such as treatment outcomes that are not directly quantifiable (functional disability, symptoms, complaints, side effects and health-related quality of life). Health economists in particular have applied probabilistic choice models in the ar

  20. Longitudinal Test of the Social Cognitive Model of Choice in Engineering Students at Historically Black Universities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lent, Robert W.; Sheu, Hung-Bin; Gloster, Clay S.; Wilkins, Gregory

    2010-01-01

    We tested the social cognitive model of choice (Lent, Brown, & Hackett, 1994) using a longitudinal design. Participants were 116 students taking beginning engineering courses at two historically Black universities. They completed measures of self-efficacy, outcome expectations, interests, goals, and environmental supports and barriers near the end…

  1. The Forced Choice Dilemma: A Model Incorporating Idiocentric/Allocentric Cultural Orientation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Jae Yup; McCormick, John; Gross, Miraca U. M.

    2012-01-01

    This study developed and tested a new model of the forced choice dilemma (i.e., the belief held by some intellectually gifted students that they must choose between academic achievement and peer acceptance) that incorporates individual-level cultural orientation variables (i.e., vertical allocentrism and vertical idiocentrism). A survey that had…

  2. Generalized behavioral framework for choice models of social influence: Behavioral and data concerns in travel behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maness, M.; Cirillo, C.; Dugundji, E.R.

    2015-01-01

    Over the past two decades, transportation has begun a shift from an individual focus to a social focus. Accordingly, discrete choice models have begun to integrate social context into its framework. Social influence, the process of having one’s behavior be affected by others, has been one approach t

  3. A comparison of methods for representing random taste heterogeneity in discrete choice models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; Hess, Stephane

    2009-01-01

    This paper reports the findings of a systematic study using Monte Carlo experiments and a real dataset aimed at comparing the performance of various ways of specifying random taste heterogeneity in a discrete choice model. Specifically, the analysis compares the performance of two recent advanced...

  4. Worldwide Diversity in Funded Pension Plans : Four Role Models on Choice and Participation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Garcia Huitron, Manuel; Ponds, Eduard

    2015-01-01

    This paper provides an in-depth comparison of funded pension savings plans around the world. The large variety in plan designs is a reflection of historical, cultural and institutional diversity. We postulate a new classification of four role models of funded pension plans, primarily based on choice

  5. A constrained multinomial Probit route choice model in the metro network: Formulation, estimation and application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yongsheng; Wei, Heng; Zheng, Kangning

    2017-01-01

    Considering that metro network expansion brings us with more alternative routes, it is attractive to integrate the impacts of routes set and the interdependency among alternative routes on route choice probability into route choice modeling. Therefore, the formulation, estimation and application of a constrained multinomial probit (CMNP) route choice model in the metro network are carried out in this paper. The utility function is formulated as three components: the compensatory component is a function of influencing factors; the non-compensatory component measures the impacts of routes set on utility; following a multivariate normal distribution, the covariance of error component is structured into three parts, representing the correlation among routes, the transfer variance of route, and the unobserved variance respectively. Considering multidimensional integrals of the multivariate normal probability density function, the CMNP model is rewritten as Hierarchical Bayes formula and M-H sampling algorithm based Monte Carlo Markov Chain approach is constructed to estimate all parameters. Based on Guangzhou Metro data, reliable estimation results are gained. Furthermore, the proposed CMNP model also shows a good forecasting performance for the route choice probabilities calculation and a good application performance for transfer flow volume prediction. PMID:28591188

  6. On competition in a Stackelberg location-design model with deterministic supplier choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hendrix, E.M.T.

    2016-01-01

    We study a market situation where two firms maximize market capture by deciding on the location in the plane and investing in a competing quality against investment cost. Clients choose one of the suppliers; i.e. deterministic supplier choice. To study this situation, a game theoretic model is formu

  7. Older adults' motivated choice for technological innovation: Evidence for benefit-driven selectivity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Melenhorst, Anne-Sophie; Rogers, Wendy A.; Bouwhuis, Don G.

    2006-01-01

    This study examined older adults' motivation to adopt technological innovation. Sixty-eight older e-mail users and nonusers discussed the use of e-mail and of traditional communication methods in 18 focus groups. The results show older adults' benefit-driven approach to new communication technology.

  8. Accounting for crop rotations in acreage choice modeling: a tractable modeling framework

    OpenAIRE

    Carpentier, Alain; Gohin, Alexandre

    2014-01-01

    Crop rotation effects and constraints are major determinants of farmers’ crop choices. Crop rotations are also keystone elements of most environmentally friendly cropping systems. The aim of this paper is twofold. First, it proposes simple tools for investigating optimal dynamic crop acreage choices accounting for crop rotation effects and constraints in an uncertain context. Second, it illustrates the impacts of crop rotation effects and constraints on farmers’ acreage choices through simple...

  9. Technology and Online Education: Models for Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Catherine W.; Sonnenberg, Christian

    2014-01-01

    This paper contends that technology changes advance online education. A number of mobile computing and transformative technologies will be examined and incorporated into a descriptive study. The object of the study will be to design innovative mobile awareness models seeking to understand technology changes for mobile devices and how they can be…

  10. Quantum Cournot equilibrium for the Hotelling-Smithies model of product choice

    CERN Document Server

    Rahaman, Ramij; Basu, B

    2012-01-01

    This paper demonstrates the quantization of a spatial Cournot duopoly model with product choice, a two stage game focusing on non-cooperation in locations and quantities. With quantization, the players can access a continuous set of strategies, using continuous variable quantum mechanical approach. The presence of quantum entanglement in the initial state identifies a quantity equilibrium for every location pair choice with any transport cost. Also higher profit is obtained by the firms at Nash equilibrium. Adoption of quantum strategies rewards us by the existence of a larger quantum strategic space at equilibrium.

  11. What factors determine the choice of public engagement undertaken by health technology assessment decision-making organizations?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wortley, Sally; Street, Jackie; Lipworth, Wendy; Howard, Kirsten

    2016-09-19

    Purpose Public engagement in health technology assessment (HTA) is increasingly considered crucial for good decision making. Determining the "right" type of engagement activity is key in achieving the appropriate consideration of public values. Little is known about the factors that determine how HTA organizations (HTAOs) decide on their method of public engagement, and there are a number of possible factors that might shape these decisions. The purpose of this paper is to understand the potential drivers of public engagement from an organizational perspective. Design/methodology/approach The published HTA literature is reviewed alongside existing frameworks of public engagement in order to elucidate key factors influencing the choice of public engagement process undertaken by HTAOs. A conceptual framework is then developed to illustrate the factors identified from the literature that appear to influence public engagement choice. Findings Determining the type of public engagement undertaken in HTA is based on multiple factors, some of which are not always explicitly acknowledged. These factors included the: perceived complexity of the policy-making issue, perceived impact of the decision, transparency and opportunities for public involvement in governance, as well as time and resource constraints. The influences of these factors vary depending on the context, indicating that a one size fits all approach to public engagement may not be effective. Originality/value Awareness of the various factors that might influence the type of public engagement undertaken would enable decision makers to reflect on their choices and be more accountable and transparent about their choice of engagement process in eliciting public values and preferences in a HTAO.

  12. Specialty choice preference of medical students according to personality traits by Five-Factor Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oh Young Kwon

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between personality traits, using the Five-Factor Model, and characteristics and motivational factors affecting specialty choice in Korean medical students. Methods: A questionnaire survey of Year 4 medical students (n=110 in July 2015 was administered. We evaluated the personality traits of Extraversion, Agreeableness, Conscientiousness, Neuroticism, and Openness by using the Korean version of Big Five Inventory. Questions about general characteristics, medical specialties most preferred as a career, motivational factors in determining specialty choice were included. Data between five personality traits and general characteristics and motivational factors affecting specialty choice were analyzed using Student t-test, Mann-Whitney test and analysis of variance. Results: Of the 110 eligible medical students, 105 (95.4% response rate completed the questionnaire. More Agreeableness students preferred clinical medicine to basic medicine (p=0.010 and more Openness students preferred medical departments to others (p=0.031. Personal interest was the significant motivational factors in more Openness students (p=0.003 and Conscientiousness students (p=0.003. Conclusion: Medical students with more Agreeableness were more likely to prefer clinical medicine and those with more Openness preferred medical departments. Personal interest was a significant influential factor determining specialty choice in more Openness and Conscientiousness students. These findings may be helpful to medical educators or career counselors in the specialty choice process.

  13. Specialty choice preference of medical students according to personality traits by Five-Factor Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwon, Oh Young; Park, So Youn

    2016-03-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between personality traits, using the Five-Factor Model, and characteristics and motivational factors affecting specialty choice in Korean medical students. A questionnaire survey of Year 4 medical students (n=110) in July 2015 was administered. We evaluated the personality traits of Extraversion, Agreeableness, Conscientiousness, Neuroticism, and Openness by using the Korean version of Big Five Inventory. Questions about general characteristics, medical specialties most preferred as a career, motivational factors in determining specialty choice were included. Data between five personality traits and general characteristics and motivational factors affecting specialty choice were analyzed using Student t-test, Mann-Whitney test and analysis of variance. Of the 110 eligible medical students, 105 (95.4% response rate) completed the questionnaire. More Agreeableness students preferred clinical medicine to basic medicine (p=0.010) and more Openness students preferred medical departments to others (p=0.031). Personal interest was the significant motivational factors in more Openness students (p=0.003) and Conscientiousness students (p=0.003). Medical students with more Agreeableness were more likely to prefer clinical medicine and those with more Openness preferred medical departments. Personal interest was a significant influential factor determining specialty choice in more Openness and Conscientiousness students. These findings may be helpful to medical educators or career counselors in the specialty choice process.

  14. Belief in the "free choice" model of homosexuality: a correlate of homophobia in registered nurses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blackwell, Christopher W

    2007-01-01

    A great amount of social science research has supported the positive correlation between heterosexuals' belief in the free choice model of homosexuality and homophobia. Heterosexuals who believe gay, lesbian, bisexual, and transgender (GLBT) persons consciously choose their sexual orientation and practice a lifestyle conducive to that choice are much more likely to possess discriminatory, homophobic, homonegative, and heterosexist beliefs. In addition, these individuals are less likely to support gay rights initiatives such as nondiscrimination policies or same-sex partner benefits in the workplace or hate crime enhancement legislation inclusive of GLBT persons. Although researchers have demonstrated this phenomenon in the general population, none have specifically assessed it in the nursing workforce. The purpose of this study was to examine registered nurses' overall levels of homophobia and attitudes toward a workplace policy protective of gays and lesbians. These variables were then correlated with belief in the free choice model of homosexuality. Results indicated that belief in the free choice model of homosexuality was the strongest predictor of homophobia in nurses. Implications for nursing leadership and management, nursing education, and future research are discussed.

  15. The Role of Preference Axioms and Respondent Behaviour in Statistical Models for Discrete Choice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hougaard, Jens Leth; Tjur, Tue; Østerdal, Lars Peter

    , ordering effects, dominance, etc. Unfortunatelythere seems to be some confusion about what is actually being tested,and the link between the statistical tests performed and the relevantunderlying model of respondent behaviour has not been explored inthis literature. The present paper tries to clarify...... the notions involvedand discuss what can be tested in a general frequency of choice frame-work and more specifically in a random utility model....

  16. DERIVED DEMAND ELASTICITIES: MARKETING MARGIN METHODS VERSUS AN INVERSE DEMAND MODEL FOR CHOICE BEEF

    OpenAIRE

    Marsh, John M.

    1991-01-01

    Three methods of calculating the derived elasticity of demand for Choice slaughter beef are used: (a) a traditional marketing margin approach, (b) a modified marketing margin approach, and (c) an econometric, inverse demand model approach. The first method is more restrictive than the second but both tend to overestimate beef price flexibility and revenue changes. The econometric model, though an incomplete demand system, yields demand elasticities that are more consistent with marketing flex...

  17. Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models in Continuous Time with an Application to Retail Competition

    OpenAIRE

    Peter Arcidiacono; Patrick Bayer; Jason R. Blevins; Paul B. Ellickson

    2012-01-01

    This paper develops a dynamic model of retail competition and uses it to study the impact of the expansion of a new national competitor on the structure of urban markets. In order to accommodate substantial heterogeneity (both observed and unobserved) across agents and markets, the paper first develops a general framework for estimating and solving dynamic discrete choice models in continuous time that is computationally light and readily applicable to dynamic games. In the proposed framework...

  18. How much demand for New HIV prevention technologies can we really expect? Results from a discrete choice experiment in South Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fern Terris-Prestholt

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: For the first time in the history of HIV, new bio-medical interventions have been shown to be effective in preventing HIV transmission. For these new HIV prevention technologies (NPTs to have an impact on the epidemic, they must be widely used. This study uses a discrete choice experiment (DCE to: understand the relative strength of women's preferences for product characteristics, understand the implications for substitution away from male condoms, and inform realistic modelling of their potential impact and cost-effectiveness. METHODS: A DCE was conducted among 1017 women in urban South Africa. Women were presented with choices between potential women's NPTs (microbicides, diaphragm, female condom and 'what I did last time' (use or not use a condom with different HIV and pregnancy prevention effectiveness' and prices. Choice probabilities are estimated using the nested logit model and used to predict uptake. RESULTS: In this high HIV prevalence setting, HIV prevention effectiveness is the main driver of uptake followed by pregnancy prevention effectiveness. For example a microbicide with poor effectiveness would have niche appeal at just 11% predicted uptake, while a highly effective microbicide (95% effective against HIV and pregnancy would have far wider appeal (56% predicted uptake. Though women who reported not using condoms were more likely to choose the NPTs, at current very high rates of male condom use in South Africa (60%, about half of microbicide uptake is projected to be among those currently not using condoms. CONCLUSIONS: Women are very interested in NPTs, especially if highly effective in preventing HIV and pregnancy. Women in greatest need were also most likely to switch to the new products. Where products are not yet available for distribution, proxy data, such as that generated by DCEs, can bring realism to overly optimistic uptake scenarios found in many current impact models.

  19. A Model Technology Educator: Thomas A. Edison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pretzer, William S.; Rogers, George E.; Bush, Jeffery

    2007-01-01

    Reflecting back over a century ago to the small village of Menlo Park, New Jersey provides insight into a remarkable visionary and an exceptional role model for today's problem-solving and design-focused technology educator: Thomas A. Edison, inventor, innovator, and model technology educator. Since Edison could not simply apply existing knowledge…

  20. Research of Home Information Technology Adoption Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ao Shan; Ren Weiyin; Lin Peishan; Tang Shoulian

    2008-01-01

    The Information Technology at Home has caught the attention of various industries such as IT, Home Appliances, Communication, and Real Estate. Based on the information technology acceptance theories and family consumption behaviors theories, this study summarized and analyzed four key belief variables i.e. Perceived Value, Perceived Risk, Perceived Cost and Perceived Ease of Use, which influence the acceptance of home information technology. The study also summaries three groups of external variables. They axe social, industrial, and family influence factors. The social influence factors include Subjective Norm; the industry factors include the Unification of Home Information Technological Standards, the Perfection of Home Information Industry Value Chain, and the Competitiveness of Home Information Industry; and the family factors include Family Income, Family Life Cycle and Family Educational Level. The study discusses the relationship among these external variables and cognitive variables. The study provides Home Information Technology Acceptance Model based on the Technology Acceptance Model and the characteristics of home information technology consumption.

  1. Breaking the gender digital divide. Involved factors in the choice of a technological career

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naira Sánchez Vadillo

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available In Spain, only 17% of computer science students are women, a dramatically low tax, yet similar to the ones in the other western countries. This research analyses how some girls manage to overcome the gender digital divide, participating actively in a strongly masculinized world. To understand this process three young computer students girls technological life stories are analyzed. This research method allowed identifying the social practices surrounding the exceptional technological trajectories of these women. The results indicate that these girls have a high sense of technological competence; use self-learning strategies, scorning ICT formal education; and, have a developed taste for mathematics and logical processes. These factors may come from: a a favorable family environment, in which the absence of brothers which could compete for computers and consoles use appears as a one striking factor; and, b a fondness for videogames, that are, as literature signals, an important gateway to new technologies, which increase educational and professional opportunities. Finally, the research puts in evidence that, if a family environment favorable to technology exists, formal education processes can generate counteractive effects when comparing to fostering vocations capacity of informal learning.

  2. The effects of nutrition labeling on consumer food choice: a psychological experiment and computational model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helfer, Peter; Shultz, Thomas R

    2014-12-01

    The widespread availability of calorie-dense food is believed to be a contributing cause of an epidemic of obesity and associated diseases throughout the world. One possible countermeasure is to empower consumers to make healthier food choices with useful nutrition labeling. An important part of this endeavor is to determine the usability of existing and proposed labeling schemes. Here, we report an experiment on how four different labeling schemes affect the speed and nutritional value of food choices. We then apply decision field theory, a leading computational model of human decision making, to simulate the experimental results. The psychology experiment shows that quantitative, single-attribute labeling schemes have greater usability than multiattribute and binary ones, and that they remain effective under moderate time pressure. The computational model simulates these psychological results and provides explanatory insights into them. This work shows how experimental psychology and computational modeling can contribute to the evaluation and improvement of nutrition-labeling schemes.

  3. Making a technological choice for disaster management and poverty alleviation in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srivastava, Sanjay K

    2009-03-01

    The right mix of policy, institutional arrangements and use of technology provides the framework for a country's approach to disaster mitigation. Worldwide, there has been a shift away from a strictly 'top-down' approach relying on government alone, to a combination of 'top-down' and 'bottom-up' approaches. The aim is to enhance the indigenous coping mechanisms of vulnerable communities; draw on their cooperative spirit and energy; and empower them through appropriate information and contextual knowledge to mitigate natural disasters. In light of this, the paper examines India's use of space technology in its disaster management efforts. Poverty alleviation and disaster management are almost inseparable in many parts of the country, as vulnerability to natural disasters is closely aligned with poverty. Addressing these issues together requires integrated knowledge systems. The paper examines how knowledge inputs from space technology have strengthened the national resolve to combat natural disasters in conjunction with alleviating rural poverty.

  4. Variation in LCA results for disposable polystyrene beverage cups due to multiple data sets and modelling choices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Harst, van der E.J.M.; Potting, J.

    2014-01-01

    Life Cycle Assessments (LCAs) of the same products often result in different, sometimes even contradictory outcomes. Reasons for these differences include using different data sets and deviating modelling choices. This paper purposely used different data sets and modelling choices to identify how th

  5. Modeling mode choice behavior incorporating household and individual sociodemographics and travel attributes based on rough sets theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Long; Chen, Xuewu; Wei, Ming; Wu, Jingxian; Hou, Xianyao

    2014-01-01

    Most traditional mode choice models are based on the principle of random utility maximization derived from econometric theory. Alternatively, mode choice modeling can be regarded as a pattern recognition problem reflected from the explanatory variables of determining the choices between alternatives. The paper applies the knowledge discovery technique of rough sets theory to model travel mode choices incorporating household and individual sociodemographics and travel information, and to identify the significance of each attribute. The study uses the detailed travel diary survey data of Changxing county which contains information on both household and individual travel behaviors for model estimation and evaluation. The knowledge is presented in the form of easily understood IF-THEN statements or rules which reveal how each attribute influences mode choice behavior. These rules are then used to predict travel mode choices from information held about previously unseen individuals and the classification performance is assessed. The rough sets model shows high robustness and good predictive ability. The most significant condition attributes identified to determine travel mode choices are gender, distance, household annual income, and occupation. Comparative evaluation with the MNL model also proves that the rough sets model gives superior prediction accuracy and coverage on travel mode choice modeling.

  6. The stay/switch model describes choice among magnitudes of reinforcers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacDonall, James S

    2008-06-01

    The stay/switch model is an alternative to the generalized matching law for describing choice in concurrent procedures. The purpose of the present experiment was to extend this model to choice among magnitudes of reinforcers. Rats were exposed to conditions in which the magnitude of reinforcers (number of food pellets) varied for staying at alternative 1, switching from alternative 1, staying at alternative 2 and switching from alternative 2. A changeover delay was not used. The results showed that the stay/switch model provided a good account of the data overall, and deviations from fits of the generalized matching law to response allocation data were in the direction predicted by the stay/switch model. In addition, comparisons among specific conditions suggested that varying the ratio of obtained reinforcers, as in the generalized matching law, was not necessary to change the response and time allocations. Other comparisons suggested that varying the ratio of obtained reinforcers was not sufficient to change response allocation. Taken together these results provide additional support for the stay/switch model of concurrent choice.

  7. Sensorimotor learning biases choice behavior: a learning neural field model for decision making.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Klaes

    Full Text Available According to a prominent view of sensorimotor processing in primates, selection and specification of possible actions are not sequential operations. Rather, a decision for an action emerges from competition between different movement plans, which are specified and selected in parallel. For action choices which are based on ambiguous sensory input, the frontoparietal sensorimotor areas are considered part of the common underlying neural substrate for selection and specification of action. These areas have been shown capable of encoding alternative spatial motor goals in parallel during movement planning, and show signatures of competitive value-based selection among these goals. Since the same network is also involved in learning sensorimotor associations, competitive action selection (decision making should not only be driven by the sensory evidence and expected reward in favor of either action, but also by the subject's learning history of different sensorimotor associations. Previous computational models of competitive neural decision making used predefined associations between sensory input and corresponding motor output. Such hard-wiring does not allow modeling of how decisions are influenced by sensorimotor learning or by changing reward contingencies. We present a dynamic neural field model which learns arbitrary sensorimotor associations with a reward-driven Hebbian learning algorithm. We show that the model accurately simulates the dynamics of action selection with different reward contingencies, as observed in monkey cortical recordings, and that it correctly predicted the pattern of choice errors in a control experiment. With our adaptive model we demonstrate how network plasticity, which is required for association learning and adaptation to new reward contingencies, can influence choice behavior. The field model provides an integrated and dynamic account for the operations of sensorimotor integration, working memory and action

  8. The Lognormal Race: A Cognitive-Process Model of Choice and Latency with Desirable Psychometric Properties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rouder, Jeffrey N; Province, Jordan M; Morey, Richard D; Gomez, Pablo; Heathcote, Andrew

    2015-06-01

    We present a cognitive process model of response choice and response time performance data that has excellent psychometric properties and may be used in a wide variety of contexts. In the model there is an accumulator associated with each response option. These accumulators have bounds, and the first accumulator to reach its bound determines the response time and response choice. The times at which accumulator reaches its bound is assumed to be lognormally distributed, hence the model is race or minima process among lognormal variables. A key property of the model is that it is relatively straightforward to place a wide variety of models on the logarithm of these finishing times including linear models, structural equation models, autoregressive models, growth-curve models, etc. Consequently, the model has excellent statistical and psychometric properties and can be used in a wide range of contexts, from laboratory experiments to high-stakes testing, to assess performance. We provide a Bayesian hierarchical analysis of the model, and illustrate its flexibility with an application in testing and one in lexical decision making, a reading skill.

  9. The application of the random regret minimization model to drivers’ choice of crash avoidance maneuvers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    This study explores the plausibility of regret minimization as behavioral paradigm underlying the choice of crash avoidance maneuvers. Alternatively to previous studies that considered utility maximization, this study applies the random regret minimization (RRM) model while assuming that drivers...... seek to minimize their anticipated regret from their corrective actions. The model accounts for driver attributes and behavior, critical events that made the crash imminent, vehicle and road characteristics, and environmental conditions. Analyzed data are retrieved from the General Estimates System......-based model, suggesting that both models should serve as a basis for evaluating crash scenarios and driver warning systems....

  10. A Joint Specification Test for Response Probabilities in Unordered Multinomial Choice Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masamune Iwasawa

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Estimation results obtained by parametric models may be seriously misleading when the model is misspecified or poorly approximates the true model. This study proposes a test that jointly tests the specifications of multiple response probabilities in unordered multinomial choice models. The test statistic is asymptotically chi-square distributed, consistent against a fixed alternative and able to detect a local alternative approaching to the null at a rate slower than the parametric rate. We show that rejection regions can be calculated by a simple parametric bootstrap procedure, when the sample size is small. The size and power of the tests are investigated by Monte Carlo experiments.

  11. Cost-effective choices of marine fuels in a carbon-constrained world: results from a global energy model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taljegard, Maria; Brynolf, Selma; Grahn, Maria; Andersson, Karin; Johnson, Hannes

    2014-11-04

    The regionalized Global Energy Transition model has been modified to include a more detailed shipping sector in order to assess what marine fuels and propulsion technologies might be cost-effective by 2050 when achieving an atmospheric CO2 concentration of 400 or 500 ppm by the year 2100. The robustness of the results was examined in a Monte Carlo analysis, varying uncertain parameters and technology options, including the amount of primary energy resources, the availability of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies, and costs of different technologies and fuels. The four main findings are (i) it is cost-effective to start the phase out of fuel oil from the shipping sector in the next decade; (ii) natural gas-based fuels (liquefied natural gas and methanol) are the most probable substitutes during the study period; (iii) availability of CCS, the CO2 target, the liquefied natural gas tank cost and potential oil resources affect marine fuel choices significantly; and (iv) biofuels rarely play a major role in the shipping sector, due to limited supply and competition for bioenergy from other energy sectors.

  12. Beyond Rational Choice: How Teacher Engagement with Technology Is Mediated by Culture and Emotions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perrotta, Carlo

    2017-01-01

    This paper focuses on the relationship between rational beliefs, culture and agency in formal school settings. This relationship is analysed in the context of the adoption of technological innovations. Interviews and focus groups with 39 secondary teachers from England and other European countries were carried out. The analysis highlights a number…

  13. ASSISTANT--Computer Consulting System for Choice and Evaluation of Education Technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganchev, Nelko; And Others

    1992-01-01

    Discussion of computer systems that help teachers plan and manage the learning process focuses on the development of a computer consulting system, ASSISTANT, which was designed to help teachers choose the most suitable educational technology and evaluate its effectiveness. The organization of the database is explained. (seven references) (LRW)

  14. Agribusiness Standards: A Comparison of the Choices of Utah Agriscience and Technology Teachers and Agribusiness Representatives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joerger, Richard M.; Andreasen, Randall

    2000-01-01

    Secondary agriscience teachers (n=13) and agribusiness leaders (n=12) validated standards and objectives for agribusiness education in Utah, recommending a core of 12 standards. Written and oral communication skills and technologies for agricultural management and quality control were most important. (Contains 20 references.) (SK)

  15. Virtual Team Meetings: Reflections on a Class Exercise Exploring Technology Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bull Schaefer, Rebecca A.; Erskine, Laura

    2012-01-01

    Students find that choosing the appropriate technology for a virtual team meeting is not as simple as it first appears. The authors describe a class exercise used to demonstrate the benefits and drawbacks of using virtual team meetings by requiring students to replace a face-to-face meeting with a virtual meeting. The exercise challenged students'…

  16. Choice, Coverage & Cost in the Countryside: A Topology of Adolescent Rural Mobile Technology Use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Calvin

    2009-01-01

    As mobile technologies become increasingly prevalent throughout Australian society, it is important to consider the impact of local factors on their use. In order to support rural students and develop appropriate mobile learning frameworks, it is essential to have an understanding of the particular communication challenges presented by local…

  17. Choice, Coverage & Cost in the Countryside: A Topology of Adolescent Rural Mobile Technology Use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Calvin

    2009-01-01

    As mobile technologies become increasingly prevalent throughout Australian society, it is important to consider the impact of local factors on their use. In order to support rural students and develop appropriate mobile learning frameworks, it is essential to have an understanding of the particular communication challenges presented by local…

  18. Modelling the Choices of Romanian Consumers in the Context of the Current Economic Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Madalina Balau

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Consumption is a key factor of the nowadays post-industrial society, while it is a real engine ofproduction, diversity of offer and demand, and motive for innovation. On the other side, consumption can beharmful to the same society and to environment if it develops in an un-sustainable way. That is why,understanding the consumer behaviour is of great importance not only to satisfy his or her needs but also tofind appropriate means to educate people and issue policies that can lead to sustainable consumption anddevelopment. The paper presents some models and theories regarding the consumer behaviour and proposesmeans to influence consumption characteristics and habits of people. The modelling approach isdeterministic, using Expectancy-Value theory, taking into account not only explicit (rational choices but alsohabits or incentives (non-rational choices, in a weighted quantitative model. The novelty of the approachconsists in the way non-rational choices are taken into consideration for the existing model, and on how it isused in determining directions for sustainable consumption. The study is developed on public data regardingconsumers of general goods in Romania.

  19. Technology Transfer: A Policy Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    1988-04-01

    34 Caveman Club-Without Nail." More serious scholars indicate that understand- ing how to start and maintain fires was the first tech- nology transfer of...others. From caveman clubs to hyper- velocity missiles, technology transfer has played a significant military role; it also has assisted imperialis- tic

  20. Examining Engineering & Technology Students' Acceptance of Network Virtualization Technology Using the Technology Acceptance Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousif, Wael K.

    2010-01-01

    This causal and correlational study was designed to extend the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) and to test its applicability to Valencia Community College (VCC) Engineering and Technology students as the target user group when investigating the factors influencing their decision to adopt and to utilize VMware as the target technology. In…

  1. The role of model female quality in the mate choice copying behaviour of sailfin mollies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Sarah E; Ryan, Michael J

    2006-06-22

    Female mate choice copying is a socially mediated mate choice behaviour, in which a male's attractiveness to females increases if he was previously chosen by another female as a mate. Although copying has been demonstrated in numerous species, little is known about the specific benefits it confers to copying females. Here we demonstrate that the mate choice behaviour of female sailfin mollies (Poecilia latipinna) is influenced by the phenotypic quality of model females with whom males are observed consorting. Test females choosing between two males of similar body length were found to significantly increase time spent with previously non-preferred males after having observed them with a relatively high-quality female. Conversely, females were found to significantly decrease time spent with previously preferred males after having observed them with a relatively low-quality female. Female mate choice copying might be maintained by selection based on the heuristic value it provides females choosing between males whose quality differences are not easily distinguishable.

  2. Reseach of Supply Chain Modeling Technology

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    The supply chain modeling technology is research. Firstly, the concept of supply chain and supply chain management is introduced. Secondly, enterprise-modeling methods, such as CIM-OSA, GIM-GRAI, PERA and ARIS, are analyzed and compared. The supply chain modeling technology is studied. Then the ARIS-based supply chain modeling method is proposed and the supply chain operation reference model is set up. Finally, the applications of ARIS-based supply chain modeling method in Shanghai Turbine Generator Co. Ltd. (STGC) is described in detail.

  3. Interactive Web service choice-making based on extended QoS model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    Quality of Service (QoS) is a key factor in Web service advertising, choosing and runtime monitoring. Web service QoS is multi-faceted, fuzzy and dynamic. Current researches focus on implementation level performance assurance, ignoring domain specific or application level metrics which are also very important to service users. Industry Web service standards lack QoS expression. The support for QoS based service choice-making is very limited. We proposed an extended Web service QoS model based on configurable fuzzy synthetic evaluation system. Web service QoS is evaluated dynamically according to the service context. A QoS requirement description model is also given for service QoS requirement definition. An interactive Web service choice-making process is described, which takes QoS as a key factor when choosing from functionally equivalent services.

  4. DYNAMIC MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF URBAN SPATIAL PATTERN (RESIDENTIAL CHOICE OF LOCATION: MOBILITY VS EXTERNALITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahma Fitriani

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Household’s residential choice of location determines urban spatial pattern (e.g sprawl. The static model which assumes that the choice has been affected by distance to the CBD and location specific externality, fails to capture the evoution of the pattern over time. Therefore this study proposes a dynamic version of the model. It analyses the effects of externalities on the optimal solution of development decision as function of time. It also derives the effect of mobility and externality on the rate of change of development pattern through time. When the increasing rate of utility is not as significant as the increasing rate of income, the externalities will delay the change of urban spatial pattern over time. If the mobility costs increase by large amount relative to the increase of income and inflation rate, then the mobility effect dominates the effects of externalities in delaying the urban expansion.

  5. Endogenous Reactivity in a Dynamic Model of Consumer’s Choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad K. Naimzada

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We move from a boundedly rational consumer model (Naimzada and Tramontana, 2008, 2010 characterized by a gradient-like decisional process in which, under particular parameters conditions, the asymptotical convergence to the optimal choice does not happen but it does under a least squared learning mechanism. In the present paper, we prove that even a less sophisticated learning mechanism leads to convergence to the rational choice and also prove that convergence is ensured when both learning mechanisms are available. The stability results that we obtain give more strength to the rational behavior assumption of the original model; in fact, the less demanding is the learning mechanism ensuring convergence to the rational behavior, the higher is the probability that even quite naive consumers will learn the composition of their optimum consumption bundles.

  6. Accounting Students’ Choice on Accounting Information Technology Careers (P.178-188

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nurul Hasanah Uswati Dewi

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The important role of accounting information systems professionals, motivate researchers to analyze further the interest of students to the profession in the field of accounting information systems. The aim of this study explores the factors that influence students to choose and do not choose a profession in the field of accounting information systems.This research was conducted using questionnaires. The population was undergraduate accounting students. Sample research was done randomly.This research shows that the interest in undergraduate accounting students for a career in the field of information systems is very small and this research also appears that the academic supervisor is one of the dominant factors influencing student choice in choosing a career in the field of information systems. Beside this, this study also found that respondents are not interested in a career in accounting information systems more due to that field of information systems is not a career they aspire.Keywords: accounting information system, accounting career, students.

  7. Technology Choices for the PV Industry: A Comparative Life Cycle Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Boyd, Sarah; Dornfeld, David A.

    2005-01-01

    In contrast to widely-used electricity generation technologies, photovoltaic (PV) systems produce little or no environmental pollution at the point of use, contributing to their market status as an environmentally-preferable product. However, there are numerous materials and energy inputs that go into the fabrication of the components of PV systems that may carry significant environmental burdens. A life-cycle perspective helps to compare the net environmental benefits of a particular generat...

  8. Multiple data sets and modelling choices in a comparative LCA of disposable beverage cups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Harst, Eugenie; Potting, José; Kroeze, Carolien

    2014-10-01

    This study used multiple data sets and modelling choices in an environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) to compare typical disposable beverage cups made from polystyrene (PS), polylactic acid (PLA; bioplastic) and paper lined with bioplastic (biopaper). Incineration and recycling were considered as waste processing options, and for the PLA and biopaper cup also composting and anaerobic digestion. Multiple data sets and modelling choices were systematically used to calculate average results and the spread in results for each disposable cup in eleven impact categories. The LCA results of all combinations of data sets and modelling choices consistently identify three processes that dominate the environmental impact: (1) production of the cup's basic material (PS, PLA, biopaper), (2) cup manufacturing, and (3) waste processing. The large spread in results for impact categories strongly overlaps among the cups, however, and therefore does not allow a preference for one type of cup material. Comparison of the individual waste treatment options suggests some cautious preferences. The average waste treatment results indicate that recycling is the preferred option for PLA cups, followed by anaerobic digestion and incineration. Recycling is slightly preferred over incineration for the biopaper cups. There is no preferred waste treatment option for the PS cups. Taking into account the spread in waste treatment results for all cups, however, none of these preferences for waste processing options can be justified. The only exception is composting, which is least preferred for both PLA and biopaper cups. Our study illustrates that using multiple data sets and modelling choices can lead to considerable spread in LCA results. This makes comparing products more complex, but the outcomes more robust.

  9. The potential of electromobility in Austria: An analysis based on hybrid choice models

    OpenAIRE

    Francisco J. Bahamonde-Birke; Hanappi, Tibor

    2015-01-01

    This paper analyses the impact of the introduction of electromobility in Austria, focusing specifically on the potential demand for electric vehicles in the automotive market. We estimate discrete choice behavioral mixture models considering latent variables; these allows us to deal with this potential demand as well as to analyze the effect of different attributes of the alternatives over the potential market penetration. We find out that some usual assumptions regarding electromobilityalso ...

  10. Research on choice of xanthates blend dedicated to processing technology at KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. concentrators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pawlos Witold

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A proper choice of reagents quality and quantity has a great influence on the flotation process effectiveness. Attempts to develop a method to create sodium xanthates blends used as a collector for copper sulphides flotation was undertaken at the Division of Concentrators of KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. Laboratory tests involving different blends of sodium xanthates were performed followed by the data analysis of the results. The obtained results proved that it was profitable to prepare a blend consisted of the so called “weak” and “strong” xanthates with a minimum difference in the alkyl chain length of two carbon atoms. The results of research will be helpful for development of specific xanthates blends dedicated to technology applied at KGHM under industrial conditions.

  11. Feature Technology in Product Modeling

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Xu; NING Ruxin

    2006-01-01

    A unified feature definition is proposed. Feature is form-concentrated, and can be used to model product functionalities, assembly relations, and part geometries. The feature model is given and a feature classification is introduced including functional, assembly, structural, and manufacturing features. A prototype modeling system is developed in Pro/ENGINEER that can define the assembly and user-defined form features.

  12. PRATICE CRAWL – MENTAL DISTABILITIES: ADULT CHOICE OF DRIVE TECHNOLOGY ADAPTED COMPETITORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dominique Redon

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Of the two schools most stressed about the act of propelling the crawl, crawl in practice, which is the most efficient swimming, the two modes of propulsion favorites are "The outstretched arm" next to the called swimmer paddling and "The arm bent S-shaped" under the so-called swimmer impeller (N. Lanotte, S. Lem, 2012 The debate is not yet settled (Potdevin F; Pelayo P. 2006. Any swimmer has a strategy for managing its own resources considering the cost / benefit of each stroke technique report, with the aim of improving strength (Arellano, R. (1992, its movement and hence its performance (Joshua, 1992 in retarded placed in individual practice crawl competition, open to different technical conditions, what is the movement that is most often practiced, according to "the outstretched arm" or "folded S-shaped arm "under the swimmer? Methods: We record video (Pk Chollet - 2003, during two Regional championships in France adapted swim organized by the French Federation of Adapted Sport tests crawl in Division 1 Division 2 and Division 3 according to the latest regulations for implementation first time. We question the choice: "The outstretched arm" or "arm bent S-shaped" under the swimmer, by interviews (Y.Meynaud; Duclos D.1996 professional supervisors or volunteers before tests their competitors and we competitors are questioning after their trials. Results: It appears on the video that all competitors swim the "arms outstretched" The point of view of professional or volunteer supervisors: no of them are not asked for the choice of method of propulsion is best for their competitors as they say swimming techniques they teach in their club are the same as for all disabled or not competitors. The point of view of competitors: For competitors the method of propulsion "outstretched arm" seems to them the most effective. Method "arm S" Their demand coordination of movement more difficult to obtain in the context of mental disability

  13. Constraining snow model choices in a transitional snow environment with intensive observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wayand, N. E.; Massmann, A.; Clark, M. P.; Lundquist, J. D.

    2014-12-01

    The performance of existing energy balance snow models exhibits a large spread in the simulated snow water equivalent, snow depth, albedo, and surface temperature. Indentifying poor model representations of physical processes within intercomparison studies is difficult due to multiple differences between models as well as non-orthogonal metrics used. Efforts to overcome these obstacles for model development have focused on a modeling framework that allows multiple representations of each physical process within one structure. However, there still exists a need for snow study sites within complex terrain that observe enough model states and fluxes to constrain model choices. In this study we focus on an intensive snow observational site located in the maritime-transitional snow climate of Snoqualmie Pass WA (Figure 1). The transitional zone has been previously identified as a difficult climate to simulate snow processes; therefore, it represents an ideal model-vetting site. From two water years of intensive observational data, we have learned that a more honest comparison with observations requires that the modeled states or fluxes be as similar to the spatial and temporal domain of the instrument, even if it means changing the model to match what is being observed. For example, 24-hour snow board observations do not capture compaction of the underlying snow; therefore, a modeled "snow board" was created that only includes new snow accumulation and new snow compaction. We extend this method of selective model validation to all available Snoqualmie observations to constrain model choices within the Structure for Understanding Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA) framework. Our end goal is to provide a more rigorous and systematic method for diagnosing problems within snow models at a site given numerous snow observations.

  14. Technology Acceptance Model for Wireless Internet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, June; Yu, Chun-Sheng; Liu, Chang; Yao, James E.

    2003-01-01

    Develops a technology acceptance model (TAM) for wireless Internet via mobile devices (WIMD) and proposes that constructs, such as individual differences, technology complexity, facilitating conditions, social influences, and wireless trust environment determine user-perceived short and long-term usefulness, and ease of using WIMD. Twelve…

  15. [Rational choice of technologies and equipment in the logistic support of a pathomorphology laboratory].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mal'kov, P G; Frank, G A; Sidorova, V P

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of the present communication is to provide specialists with the comparative characteristics of the most important user qualities of the major histological labware by the world's leading manufacturers introduced on the market. These are comparatively estimated solely from technologically significant criteria on the basis of the materials of open references, general public technical documents, and the authors' experience. Fabric processors, embedding complexes, microtomes, autostainers, and coverslippers are comparatively characterized from the viewpoint of a practical user. The presented materials may be useful to specialties to take decisions on logistics and re-equipment of morphological laboratories.

  16. Business Model Discovery by Technology Entrepreneurs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven Muegge

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Value creation and value capture are central to technology entrepreneurship. The ways in which a particular firm creates and captures value are the foundation of that firm's business model, which is an explanation of how the business delivers value to a set of customers at attractive profits. Despite the deep conceptual link between business models and technology entrepreneurship, little is known about the processes by which technology entrepreneurs produce successful business models. This article makes three contributions to partially address this knowledge gap. First, it argues that business model discovery by technology entrepreneurs can be, and often should be, disciplined by both intention and structure. Second, it provides a tool for disciplined business model discovery that includes an actionable process and a worksheet for describing a business model in a form that is both concise and explicit. Third, it shares preliminary results and lessons learned from six technology entrepreneurs applying a disciplined process to strengthen or reinvent the business models of their own nascent technology businesses.

  17. Analyzing Multiple-Choice Questions by Model Analysis and Item Response Curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wattanakasiwich, P.; Ananta, S.

    2010-07-01

    In physics education research, the main goal is to improve physics teaching so that most students understand physics conceptually and be able to apply concepts in solving problems. Therefore many multiple-choice instruments were developed to probe students' conceptual understanding in various topics. Two techniques including model analysis and item response curves were used to analyze students' responses from Force and Motion Conceptual Evaluation (FMCE). For this study FMCE data from more than 1000 students at Chiang Mai University were collected over the past three years. With model analysis, we can obtain students' alternative knowledge and the probabilities for students to use such knowledge in a range of equivalent contexts. The model analysis consists of two algorithms—concentration factor and model estimation. This paper only presents results from using the model estimation algorithm to obtain a model plot. The plot helps to identify a class model state whether it is in the misconception region or not. Item response curve (IRC) derived from item response theory is a plot between percentages of students selecting a particular choice versus their total score. Pros and cons of both techniques are compared and discussed.

  18. Causal Models for Safety Assurance Technologies Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Fulfillment of NASA's System-Wide Safety and Assurance Technology (SSAT) project at NASA requires leveraging vast amounts of data into actionable knowledge. Models...

  19. A merge model with endogenous technological change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kypreos, S.; Bahn, O.

    2002-03-01

    A new version of the MERGE model, called MERGE-ETL, has been developed to consider endogenous technological change in the energy system. The basic formulation of MERGE-ETL as well as some first results are reported here. (author)

  20. Analysis on Micro-motivation and Macro-behavior of Farmer's Technology Choice: Concurrently Discussing Compatibility of Individual Farmer's Choice with Village Group's Choice%农户技术选择的微观动机与宏观行为分析——兼论农户个体选择与村落群体选择的相容性

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    马凤才; 郭翔宇

    2012-01-01

    利用多人集体行动博弈分析了农户技术选择行为。结果表明,分散农户的微观行为很难形成一致性的集体行动,也很难实现农村社会宏观行为的最优化。实际调查结果显示:不同群体的农户的技术选择行为不相同;种养规模越大的农户越倾向于选择正规途径获得农业新技术,种养规模越小的农户越倾向于从民间途径获得农业新技术;以政府为主导的技术供给模式并没有获得农民的完全认可。最后提出:提高农户的组织化水平、提高技术供给主体的供给实力,是突破农户自身无序选择、实现衣村社会宏观行为最优的有效手段。%This paper analyzes the technology choice behavior of farmers through using the collective action game. The result shows that it is difficult to achieve the formation of collective action with consistency and the optimization of rural social macro-behavior due to the micro-selec- tion behavior of farmers. The investigation results show as follows: different groups of farmers have different technology choice; the farmer whose farming scale is larger tend to choose formal ways to get new agricultural technology,and the farmer whose farming scale is smaller prefer to choose folk ways;the farmer dofft receive fully the technology supply model leaded by government. Finally,it suggests that raising the organi- zation level of farmers,and improving the technical supply power of supplier,are the best way to break farmer's disordered choice and achieve the optimal macro-behavior in rural area.

  1. Global Health Innovation Technology Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kimberly Harding

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Chronic technology and business process disparities between High Income, Low Middle Income and Low Income (HIC, LMIC, LIC research collaborators directly prevent the growth of sustainable Global Health innovation for infectious and rare diseases. There is a need for an Open Source-Open Science Architecture Framework to bridge this divide. We are proposing such a framework for consideration by the Global Health community, by utilizing a hybrid approach of integrating agnostic Open Source technology and healthcare interoperability standards and Total Quality Management principles. We will validate this architecture framework through our programme called Project Orchid. Project Orchid is a conceptual Clinical Intelligence Exchange and Virtual Innovation platform utilizing this approach to support clinical innovation efforts for multi-national collaboration that can be locally sustainable for LIC and LMIC research cohorts. The goal is to enable LIC and LMIC research organizations to accelerate their clinical trial process maturity in the field of drug discovery, population health innovation initiatives and public domain knowledge networks. When sponsored, this concept will be tested by 12 confirmed clinical research and public health organizations in six countries. The potential impact of this platform is reduced drug discovery and public health innovation lag time and improved clinical trial interventions, due to reliable clinical intelligence and bio-surveillance across all phases of the clinical innovation process.

  2. Global Health Innovation Technology Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kimberly Harding

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Chronic technology and business process disparities between High Income, Low Middle Income and Low Income (HIC, LMIC, LIC research collaborators directly prevent the growth of sustainable Global Health innova‐ tion for infectious and rare diseases. There is a need for an Open Source-Open Science Architecture Framework to bridge this divide. We are proposing such a framework for consideration by the Global Health community, by utiliz‐ ing a hybrid approach of integrating agnostic Open Source technology and healthcare interoperability standards and Total Quality Management principles. We will validate this architecture framework through our programme called Project Orchid. Project Orchid is a conceptual Clinical Intelligence Exchange and Virtual Innovation platform utilizing this approach to support clinical innovation efforts for multi-national collaboration that can be locally sustainable for LIC and LMIC research cohorts. The goal is to enable LIC and LMIC research organizations to acceler‐ ate their clinical trial process maturity in the field of drug discovery, population health innovation initiatives and public domain knowledge networks. When sponsored, this concept will be tested by 12 confirmed clinical research and public health organizations in six countries. The potential impact of this platform is reduced drug discovery and public health innovation lag time and improved clinical trial interventions, due to reliable clinical intelligence and bio-surveillance across all phases of the clinical innovation process.

  3. Coupled Ising models and interdependent discrete choices under social influence in homogeneous populations

    CERN Document Server

    del Río, Ana Fernández

    2011-01-01

    The use of statistical physics to study problems of social sciences is motivated and its current state of the art briefly reviewed, in particular for the case of discrete choice making. The coupling of two binary choices is studied in some detail, using an Ising model for each of the decision variables (the opinion or choice moments or spins, socioeconomic equivalents to the magnetic moments or spins). Toy models for two different types of coupling are studied analytically and numerically in the mean field (infinite range) approximation. This is equivalent to considering a social influence effect proportional to the fraction of adopters or average magnetisation. In the nonlocal case, the two spin variables are coupled through a Weiss mean field type term. In a socioeconomic context, this can be useful when studying individuals of two different groups, making the same decision under social influence of their own group, when their outcome is affected by the fraction of adopters of the other group. In the local ...

  4. A Personal Value-Based Model of College Students' Aptitudes and Expected Choice Behavior Regarding Retailing Careers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shim, Soyeon; Warrington, Patti; Goldsberry, Ellen

    1999-01-01

    A study of 754 retail management students developed a value-based model of career attitude and expected choice behavior. Findings indicate that personal values had an influence on all aspects of retail career attitudes, which then had a direct effect on expected choice behavior. (Contains 55 references.) (Author/JOW)

  5. BUSINESS MODEL PATTERNS FOR DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES

    OpenAIRE

    BENJAMIN AMSHOFF; CHRISTIAN DÜLME; JULIAN ECHTERFELD; JÜRGEN GAUSEMEIER

    2015-01-01

    Companies nowadays face a myriad of business opportunities as a direct consequence of manifold disruptive technology developments. As a basic characteristic, disruptive technologies lead to a severe shift in value-creation networks giving rise to new market segments. One of the key challenges is to anticipate the business logics within these nascent and formerly unknown markets. Business model patterns promise to tackle this challenge. They can be interpreted as proven business model elements...

  6. Acceptance and use of technology for the choice of touristic destina-tions by persons of the third age: a study using UTAUT2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andréia Cássia de Moura

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The elderly have shown an increasing interest in new technologies and relate them to learning, social insertion and leisure. Considering the high number of changes in the profile of the Brazilian elderly and the tourist and technological contexts, this work aims to understand the behavioral intentions and the use of the internet by the elderly for the purposes of tourist destination choices. For this, the work extended the UTAUT2 Model of Venkatesh, Thong and Xu (2012, inserting new constructs related to technology: Perceived Risk and Confidence, by Slade et al (2015 and also adding Attitude, based on Curras-Perez, Ruiz-Mafe and Sanz-Blas (2014. The study is characterized as exploratory-descriptive. For that, a Survey was conducted, online and face-to-face, being applied for two months. Statistical analysis of multivariate analysis was performed using SPSS20 and the modeling analysis of structural equations using SmartPLS. The sample obtained was of 211 elderly people who use Internet for tourist purposes. As a result, the relations of the Habit, Hedonic Motivation, Trust and Performance Expectations as determinants of the Internet Use Attitude for tourism purposes and, in addition to that, the relation of the Habit construct, positively affecting the Usage Behavior . As far as the originality of the work was concerned, Atitude was a new concept used to compose the model, bringing something unprecedented to this field of studies in Brazil. In addition, innovations include the application of the UTAUT2 model to the Brazilian context, in a segment and market sector not yet explored in this field of research - the third age and tourism.

  7. PRO-ECOLOGICAL ACTIONS AND CONSUMER CHOICES IN THE MODEL OF RESPONSIBLE BUSINESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katarzyna Olejniczak

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The current farming conditions cause that recent social and environmental aspects of management play an important role for the functioning of modern enterprises. This results from the fact that on the one hand the activities of modern enterprises are determined by the surroundings’ increasing complexity, on the other hand the growing demands of various groups of stakeholders build company’s success based not only on a quest to maximize their profi t, but primarily on taking the responsibility for the consequences of their actions. Additionally, the growing awareness of consumers makes more and more enterprises implement the concept of corporate social responsibility (CSR in their actions. For this reason, it is important to discuss about the actions and choices of consumers in the model of CSR. The aim of this article is to present the results of the research on customers‘s environmentally conscious activities and choices.

  8. The application of the random regret minimization model to drivers’ choice of crash avoidance maneuvers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    This study explores the plausibility of regret minimization as behavioral paradigm underlying the choice of crash avoidance maneuvers. Alternatively to previous studies that considered utility maximization, this study applies the random regret minimization (RRM) model while assuming that drivers...... seek to minimize their anticipated regret from their corrective actions. The model accounts for driver attributes and behavior, critical events that made the crash imminent, vehicle and road characteristics, and environmental conditions. Analyzed data are retrieved from the General Estimates System...... (GES) crash database for the period between 2005 and 2009. The predictive ability of the RRM-based model is slightly superior to its RUM-based counterpart, namely the multinomial logit model (MNL) model. The marginal effects predicted by the RRM-based model are greater than those predicted by the RUM-based...

  9. Technological choice and change in the Southwest Bath in the Athenian Agora

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Artz, James

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available During its five architectural phases, the Southwest bath in the Athenian Agora changes from a Greek-style bath into a Roman-style bath. This article will focus on the first two phases, when Roman elements begin to be incorporated into the traditional forms of Greek bath architecture – particularly, a hypocaust floor system and a concrete vaulted ceiling built into a traditional Greek tholos bath. After describing these architectural features and analyzing the techniques used in their construction, I will examine possible sources of influence on the design and construction of the Southwest baths. The Roman army, citizenry, and workmen could all have potentially affected the incorporation of Roman bathing technologies and building techniques into the Southwest bath. The available evidence, however, indicates that the most likely source of influence is Roman workmen, who were employed in large numbers for the numerous building projects underway in Augustan Athens.

  10. Models of care choices in today's nursing workplace: where does team nursing sit?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fairbrother, Greg; Chiarella, Mary; Braithwaite, Jeffrey

    2015-11-01

    This paper provides an overview of the developmental history of models of care (MOC) in nursing since Florence Nightingale introduced nurse training programs in a drive to make nursing a discipline-based career option. The four principal choices of models of nursing care delivery (primary nursing, individual patient allocation, team nursing and functional nursing) are outlined and discussed, and recent MOC literature reviewed. The paper suggests that, given the ways work is being rapidly reconfigured in healthcare services and the pressures on the nursing workforce projected into the future, team nursing seems to offer the best solutions.

  11. Application of a New Hybrid Fuzzy AHP Model to the Location Choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chien-Chang Chou

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to propose a new hybrid fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP algorithm to deal with the decision-making problems in an uncertain and multiple-criteria environment. In this study, the proposed hybrid fuzzy AHP model is applied to the location choices of international distribution centers in international ports from the view of multiple-nation corporations. The results show that the proposed new hybrid fuzzy AHP model is an appropriate tool to solve the decision-making problems in an uncertain and multiple-criteria environment.

  12. [The model of the reward choice basing on the theory of reinforcement learning].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smirnitskaia, I A; Frolov, A A; Merzhanova, G Kh

    2007-01-01

    We developed the model of alimentary instrumental conditioned bar-pressing reflex for cats making a choice between either immediate small reinforcement ("impulsive behavior") or delayed more valuable reinforcement ("self-control behavior"). Our model is based on the reinforcement learning theory. We emulated dopamine contribution by discount coefficient of this theory (a subjective decrease in the value of a delayed reinforcement). The results of computer simulation showed that "cats" with large discount coefficient demonstrated "self-control behavior"; small discount coefficient was associated with "impulsive behavior". This data are in agreement with the experimental data indicating that the impulsive behavior is due to a decreased amount of dopamine in striatum.

  13. Fear of Floating and Pegging: A Simultaneous Choice Model of De Jure and De Facto Exchange Rate Regimes

    OpenAIRE

    von Hagen, Jürgen; Zhou, Jizhong

    2008-01-01

    We present an analysis of the determinants of de jure and de facto exchange rate regimes based on a panel probit model with simultaneous equations. The model is estimated using simulation-based maximum likelihood methods. The empirical results suggest a triangular structure of the model such that the choice of de facto regimes depends on the choice of de jure regimes but not vice versa. This gives rise to a novel interpretation of regime discrepancies.

  14. A Day-to-Day Route Choice Model Based on Reinforcement Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fangfang Wei

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Day-to-day traffic dynamics are generated by individual traveler’s route choice and route adjustment behaviors, which are appropriate to be researched by using agent-based model and learning theory. In this paper, we propose a day-to-day route choice model based on reinforcement learning and multiagent simulation. Travelers’ memory, learning rate, and experience cognition are taken into account. Then the model is verified and analyzed. Results show that the network flow can converge to user equilibrium (UE if travelers can remember all the travel time they have experienced, but which is not necessarily the case under limited memory; learning rate can strengthen the flow fluctuation, but memory leads to the contrary side; moreover, high learning rate results in the cyclical oscillation during the process of flow evolution. Finally, both the scenarios of link capacity degradation and random link capacity are used to illustrate the model’s applications. Analyses and applications of our model demonstrate the model is reasonable and useful for studying the day-to-day traffic dynamics.

  15. Sensitivity of simulated regional Arctic climate to the choice of coupled model domain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dmitry V. Sein

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The climate over the Arctic has undergone changes in recent decades. In order to evaluate the coupled response of the Arctic system to external and internal forcing, our study focuses on the estimation of regional climate variability and its dependence on large-scale atmospheric and regional ocean circulations. A global ocean–sea ice model with regionally high horizontal resolution is coupled to an atmospheric regional model and global terrestrial hydrology model. This way of coupling divides the global ocean model setup into two different domains: one coupled, where the ocean and the atmosphere are interacting, and one uncoupled, where the ocean model is driven by prescribed atmospheric forcing and runs in a so-called stand-alone mode. Therefore, selecting a specific area for the regional atmosphere implies that the ocean–atmosphere system can develop ‘freely’ in that area, whereas for the rest of the global ocean, the circulation is driven by prescribed atmospheric forcing without any feedbacks. Five different coupled setups are chosen for ensemble simulations. The choice of the coupled domains was done to estimate the influences of the Subtropical Atlantic, Eurasian and North Pacific regions on northern North Atlantic and Arctic climate. Our simulations show that the regional coupled ocean–atmosphere model is sensitive to the choice of the modelled area. The different model configurations reproduce differently both the mean climate and its variability. Only two out of five model setups were able to reproduce the Arctic climate as observed under recent climate conditions (ERA-40 Reanalysis. Evidence is found that the main source of uncertainty for Arctic climate variability and its predictability is the North Pacific. The prescription of North Pacific conditions in the regional model leads to significant correlation with observations, even if the whole North Atlantic is within the coupled model domain. However, the inclusion of the

  16. Advances in technology: commercialization models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marinakis, Yorgos D.

    2016-01-01

    Through the lens of the philosophy of science, we reconsider things that are currently being taken for granted and locate issues that are not currently being treated. In general, that lens has been more focused on views of scientific theories rather than theories of models. A philosophy of sciencety

  17. Socio-demographic characteristics affecting sport tourism choices: A structural model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nataša Slak Valek

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Effective tourism management in the field of sports tourism requires an understanding of differences in socioeconomic characteristics both within and between different market segments. Objective: In the broad tourism market demographic characteristics have been extensively analyzed for differences in destination choices, however little is known about demographic factors affecting sport tourists' decisions. Methods: A sample of Slovenian sports tourists was analyzed using data from a comprehensive survey of local and outbound tourist activity conducted by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia in 2008. After data weighting the information for 353,783 sports related trips were available for analysis. The research model adopted suggests that four socio-demographic characteristics (gender, age, level of education and income significantly affect a tourist's choice of sports related travel either locally within Slovenia or to a foreign country. Furthermore the destination (local or foreign has an influence on the choice of the type of accommodation selected and the tourist's total expenditure for the trip. For testing the first part of our model (the socio-demographic characteristics effects a linear regression was used, and for the final part of the model (the selection of accommodation type and travel expenditure t-test were applied. Results: The result shows the standardized β regression coefficients are all statistically significant at the .001 level for the tested socio-demographic characteristics and also the overall regression model was statistically significant at .001 level. Conclusions: With these results the study confirmed that all the selected socio-demographic characteristics have a significant influence on the sport-active tourist when choosing between a domestic and foreign tourism destination which in turn affect the type of accommodation chosen and the level of expenditure while travelling.

  18. Impact of implementation choices on quantitative predictions of cell-based computational models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kursawe, Jochen; Baker, Ruth E.; Fletcher, Alexander G.

    2017-09-01

    'Cell-based' models provide a powerful computational tool for studying the mechanisms underlying the growth and dynamics of biological tissues in health and disease. An increasing amount of quantitative data with cellular resolution has paved the way for the quantitative parameterisation and validation of such models. However, the numerical implementation of cell-based models remains challenging, and little work has been done to understand to what extent implementation choices may influence model predictions. Here, we consider the numerical implementation of a popular class of cell-based models called vertex models, which are often used to study epithelial tissues. In two-dimensional vertex models, a tissue is approximated as a tessellation of polygons and the vertices of these polygons move due to mechanical forces originating from the cells. Such models have been used extensively to study the mechanical regulation of tissue topology in the literature. Here, we analyse how the model predictions may be affected by numerical parameters, such as the size of the time step, and non-physical model parameters, such as length thresholds for cell rearrangement. We find that vertex positions and summary statistics are sensitive to several of these implementation parameters. For example, the predicted tissue size decreases with decreasing cell cycle durations, and cell rearrangement may be suppressed by large time steps. These findings are counter-intuitive and illustrate that model predictions need to be thoroughly analysed and implementation details carefully considered when applying cell-based computational models in a quantitative setting.

  19. Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Filipe, Joaquim; Kacprzyk, Janusz; Pina, Nuno

    2014-01-01

    This book includes extended and revised versions of a set of selected papers from the 2012 International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications (SIMULTECH 2012) which was sponsored by the Institute for Systems and Technologies of Information, Control and Communication (INSTICC) and held in Rome, Italy. SIMULTECH 2012 was technically co-sponsored by the Society for Modeling & Simulation International (SCS), GDR I3, Lionphant Simulation, Simulation Team and IFIP and held in cooperation with AIS Special Interest Group of Modeling and Simulation (AIS SIGMAS) and the Movimento Italiano Modellazione e Simulazione (MIMOS).

  20. Theoretical Model of Steel Continuous Casting Technology

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    C Gheorghies; I Crudu; C Teletin; C Spanu

    2009-01-01

    A theoretical model adapted for studying steel continuous casting technology was proposed.The model based on system theory contained input/output,command,and control parameters.The process was divided into five stages,i.e.,tundish,mold,guiding system,guiding-drawing system,and guiding-drawing-soft reduction system.The model can be used to describe the physicoehemical processes,thermal processes,chemical processes,and characteristics of the cast material according to the above-mentioned stages.It can also be applied to other metallurgical technologies and even to other industries (chemistry,food,etc.).

  1. Mathematical Modeling of the Agriculture Crop Technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Drucioc

    1999-02-01

    Full Text Available The organized structure of computer system for economic and ecological estimation of agriculture crop technologies is described. The system is composed of six interconnected blocks. The linear, non-linear and stochastic mathematical models for machinery sizing and selection in farm-level cropping system is presented in the mathematical model block of computer system.

  2. Endogenizing technological progress: The MESEMET model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.A.G. van Bergeijk (Peter); G.H.A. van Hagen; R.A. de Mooij (Ruud); J. van Sinderen (Jarig)

    1997-01-01

    textabstractThis paper endogenizes technology and human capital formation in the MESEM model that was developed by van Sinderen (Economic Modelling, 1993, 13, 285-300). Tax allowances for private R&D expenditures and public expenditures on both education and R& D are effective instruments to stimula

  3. Integrated Mode Choice, Small Aircraft Demand, and Airport Operations Model User's Guide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yackovetsky, Robert E. (Technical Monitor); Dollyhigh, Samuel M.

    2004-01-01

    A mode choice model that generates on-demand air travel forecasts at a set of GA airports based on changes in economic characteristics, vehicle performance characteristics such as speed and cost, and demographic trends has been integrated with a model to generate itinerate aircraft operations by airplane category at a set of 3227 airports. Numerous intermediate outputs can be generated, such as the number of additional trips diverted from automobiles and schedule air by the improved performance and cost of on-demand air vehicles. The total number of transported passenger miles that are diverted is also available. From these results the number of new aircraft to service the increased demand can be calculated. Output from the models discussed is in the format to generate the origin and destination traffic flow between the 3227 airports based on solutions to a gravity model.

  4. A customer-centric approach towards evaluating single-choice information technology service provision to the parastatal sector of South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MC Cant

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The article presents a case study whereby the service performance of a single-choice information technology service provider in the parastatal industry of South Africa is measured against multi-choice private service providers without any provisional agreements.  The outcome of the case study reveals that single-choice service provision options with provisional agreements have a limited chance of success if they are not supported by strong service user inputs.  In fact, provisional strategies that disallow sound competition among service providers are bound to impact negatively on user preferences as well as information technology skills development opportunities that  are required to improve service provision generally and long-term survival in particular.

  5. Factors Affecting the Choice of Software Life Cycle Models in the Software Industry-An Empirical Study

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Vandana Bhattacherjee; M. S. Neogi; Rupa Mahanti

    2012-01-01

    .... Results and Conclusion: The survey results revealed that the level of understanding of the user requirements is the most important fact in the choice of the life cycle model used in the software project...

  6. Importance of the habitat choice behavior assumed when modeling the effects of food and temperature on fish populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wildhaber, Mark L.; Lamberson, Peter J.

    2004-01-01

    Various mechanisms of habitat choice in fishes based on food and/or temperature have been proposed: optimal foraging for food alone; behavioral thermoregulation for temperature alone; and behavioral energetics and discounted matching for food and temperature combined. Along with development of habitat choice mechanisms, there has been a major push to develop and apply to fish populations individual-based models that incorporate various forms of these mechanisms. However, it is not known how the wide variation in observed and hypothesized mechanisms of fish habitat choice could alter fish population predictions (e.g. growth, size distributions, etc.). We used spatially explicit, individual-based modeling to compare predicted fish populations using different submodels of patch choice behavior under various food and temperature distributions. We compared predicted growth, temperature experience, food consumption, and final spatial distribution using the different models. Our results demonstrated that the habitat choice mechanism assumed in fish population modeling simulations was critical to predictions of fish distribution and growth rates. Hence, resource managers who use modeling results to predict fish population trends should be very aware of and understand the underlying patch choice mechanisms used in their models to assure that those mechanisms correctly represent the fish populations being modeled.

  7. Models in cooperative game theory crisp, fuzzy, and multi-choice games

    CERN Document Server

    Branzei, Rodica; Tijs, Stef

    2005-01-01

    This book investigates models in cooperative game theory in which the players have the possibility to cooperate partially. In a crisp game the agents are either fully involved or not involved at all in coperation with some other agents, while in a fuzzy game players are allowed to cooperate with infinite many different participation levels, varying from non-cooperation to full cooperation. A multi-choice game describes the intermediate case in which each player may have a fixed number of activity levels. Different set and one-point solution concepts for these games are presented. The propertie

  8. Industrial fuel choice analysis model. Volume II. Appendices to model documentation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1979-01-08

    Descriptions, documentation, and other information are included in these appendices dealing with industrial fuel choices: Energy Consumption Data Base; Major Fuel Burning Installation Survey; American Boiler Manufacturers Association Data File; Midrange Energy Forecasting System; Projection Method; Capacity Utilization Rates; Nonboiler Characteristics; Boiler Capital and O and M Cost Data; Nonboiler Capital and O and M Cost Data; Approach to Estimating Energy Impacts of the Coal Conversion Regulatory Program; Index or Acronyms.

  9. Investigating attribute non-attendance and its consequences in choice experiments with latent class models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagarde, Mylene

    2013-05-01

    A growing literature, mainly from transport and environment economics, has started to explore whether respondents violate some of the axioms about individuals' preferences in Discrete Choice Experiments (DCEs) and use simple strategies to make their choices. One of these strategies, termed attribute non-attendance (ANA), consists in ignoring one or more attributes. Using data from a DCE administered to healthcare providers in Ghana to evaluate their potential resistance to changes in clinical guidelines, this study illustrates how latent class models can be used in a step-wise approach to account for all possible ANA strategies used by respondents and explore the consequences of such behaviours. Results show that less than 3% of respondents considered all attributes when choosing between the two hypothetical scenarios proposed, with a majority looking at only one or two attributes. Accounting for ANA strategies improved the goodness-of-fit of the model and affected the magnitude of some of the coefficient and willingness-to-pay estimates. However, there was no difference in the predicted probabilities of the model taking into account ANA and the standard approach. Although the latter result is reassuring about the ability of DCEs to produce unbiased policy guidance, it should be confirmed by other studies.

  10. Distinguishing between population bottleneck and population subdivision by a Bayesian model choice procedure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter, Benjamin M; Wegmann, Daniel; Excoffier, Laurent

    2010-11-01

    Although most natural populations are genetically subdivided, they are often analysed as if they were panmictic units. In particular, signals of past demographic size changes are often inferred from genetic data by assuming that the analysed sample is drawn from a population without any internal subdivision. However, it has been shown that a bottleneck signal can result from the presence of some recent immigrants in a population. It thus appears important to contrast these two alternative scenarios in a model choice procedure to prevent wrong conclusions to be made. We use here an Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) approach to infer whether observed patterns of genetic diversity in a given sample are more compatible with it being drawn from a panmictic population having gone through some size change, or from one or several demes belonging to a recent finite island model. Simulations show that we can correctly identify samples drawn from a subdivided population in up to 95% of the cases for a wide range of parameters. We apply our model choice procedure to the case of the chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes) and find conclusive evidence that Western and Eastern chimpanzee samples are drawn from a spatially subdivided population. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  11. Fertility behavior and labor force participation: a model of lexicographic choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Encarnacion, J J

    1982-01-01

    Evidence exists that a smaller family size is usually associated with female employment and that fertility rises with family income and the wife's education at relatively low levels of income and education. Only at higher levels is there the generally expected relationship that fertility declines with more education or income. Due to the fact that a woman's labor force participation and her fertility are aspects of behavior of the same person (or couple), they should be explained by a model of choice. Such a model is presented, and empirical evidence is cited. In particular, the model allows for a fertility decline even before a decline in mortality during the demographic transition. The model of choice involves threshold values of education and income, such that the marginal effects of these variables on fertility and labor supply are qualitatively different below and above the threshold. The model is in conformity with cross-section regressions using Philippine data and appears to explain why various studies give positive, zero, or negative regression coefficients relating fertility to education and income when standard linear regression specifications are used. Such results would depend on the proportions of families falling below and above the thresholds in the sample of observations. The model also implies that the fertility effects of a child mortality decline on those proportions, meaning that one could have lower mortality without affecting fertility levels. From a policy perspective, the broad implications of the model are distrubing. Development that raises very low income and education levels would increase fertility and so would a more egalitarian distribution of the same low aggregate income. It is necessary to shift the underlying functions so that the thresholds become as low as possible, but general economic development may be too slow for this purpose.

  12. Relevance Of Utility Maximization In Student University Choice – A Consumption-Based Model For Higher Education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric S. SCHWARTZ

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper applies a model of utility-maximization to better understand the university choice process. Student decision-making for university choice is conceptualized as a purchase decision process through which students weigh the costs of colleges or universities they choose against their perceived benefits of attending these institutions. The key issues are the impact of consumer’s preferences, income, tuition, and costs in college decision-making. From this perspective, the paper describes the relationship between utility maximization and educational demand, effects of tuition increases, tuition discounting, and financial aid subsidies on university choice. A decision-making scheme for educational consumption is used in order to identify the stages of the university choice process and to predict the behavior of consumers in the higher education marketplace. The analysis points to the need to better inform students about the cost of postsecondary education which is a highly relevant aspect in the university choice process.

  13. Using discrete choice modeling to evaluate the preferences and willingness to pay for leptospirosis vaccine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arbiol, Joseph; Yabe, Mitsuyasu; Nomura, Hisako; Borja, Maridel; Gloriani, Nina; Yoshida, Shin-ichi

    2015-01-01

    Leptospirosis is highly endemic in the Philippines and a serious concern to public health. Local research on candidate vaccine is moving through the development pipeline. The availability of vaccines alone does not guarantee acceptance because individuals' vaccination choice decision is influenced by several factors. This study assessed how vaccine attributes and socio-demographic factors affect the acceptability of leptospirosis vaccine; and estimated individuals' willingness to pay for leptospirosis vaccine. A discrete choice experiment was conducted among leptospirosis and non-leptospirosis case respondents (n = 342) living in Metro Manila. Random Parameters Logit model was used to estimate the relative importance of vaccine attributes and socio-demographic variables on respondents' leptospirosis vaccination choice decision. The estimated model coefficients were used to derive implicit prices and willingness to pay for leptospirosis vaccine. Both case respondents preferred leptospirosis vaccine with 70-100% efficacy, mild to moderate risk of side-effects, given in a single shot, and at a lower price. Non-leptospirosis case respondents preferred a vaccine with 7 to 10 y of protection, while leptospirosis case respondents preferred a vaccine with 10 y protection. The probability of leptospirosis vaccination acceptance was affected by respondents' age, education, family size and income, proximity of home to rivers and sewers, and leptospirosis awareness level. Respondents' willingness to pay for leptospirosis vaccine (US$ 31.14-US$ 65.89) was higher than the Japanese retail price (US$ 21.60-US$ 24.00). Our findings indicated significant potential for introducing leptospirosis vaccine in the Philippine vaccine market. Delivery strategies to ensure equitable access to future leptospirosis vaccine are recommended.

  14. Choice of technological regimes of a blast furnace operation with injection of hot reducing gases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Babich, A. I.

    2002-08-01

    Full Text Available Injection rate of fossil fuels is limited because of drop in the flame temperature in the raceway and problems in the deadman region and the cohesive zone. The next step for obtaining a considerable coke saving, a better operation in the deadman as an well as increase in blast furnace productivity and minimizing the environmental impact due to a decrease in carbon dioxide emmision would be injection by tuyeres of hot reducing gases (HRG which are produced by low grade coal gasification or top gas regenerating. Use of HRG in combination with high pulverized coal inyection PCI rate and oxigen enrichment in the blast could allow to keep and to increase the competitiveness of the blast furnace process. Calculations using a mathematical model show that the HRG injection in combination with pulverized coal (PC and enriching blast with oxigen can provide an increase in PC rate up to 300-400 kg/tHM and a rise in the furnace productivity by 40-50 %. Blast furnace operation with full oxigen blast (100 % of process oxigen with the exception for the hot blast is possible when HRG is injected.

    La tasa de inyección de combustibles fósiles está limitada a causa de la caída de la temperatura de llama en el raceway (cavidad frente a las toberas y a problemas en la región del "hombre muerto" y en la zona cohesiva. La inyección por tobera de gases reductores calientes (GRC, que se producen por gasificación de carbón de bajo grado o generación de gas de tragante, será la próxima etapa para lograr un considerable ahorro adicional de coque, una zona del "hombre muerto" bien definida, además de un aumento en la productividad del horno alto y para minimizar el impacto ambiental debido a una disminución de la emisión de dióxido de carbono. El uso de GRC en combinación con una tasa elevada de inyección de carbón pulverizado (ICP con viento enriquecido en oxígeno, podrá permitir mantener y aumentar la competitividad del proceso del horno

  15. Taking dietary habits into account: A computational method for modeling food choices that goes beyond price.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beheshti, Rahmatollah; Jones-Smith, Jessica C; Igusa, Takeru

    2017-01-01

    Computational models have gained popularity as a predictive tool for assessing proposed policy changes affecting dietary choice. Specifically, they have been used for modeling dietary changes in response to economic interventions, such as price and income changes. Herein, we present a novel addition to this type of model by incorporating habitual behaviors that drive individuals to maintain or conform to prior eating patterns. We examine our method in a simulated case study of food choice behaviors of low-income adults in the US. We use data from several national datasets, including the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and the USDA, to parameterize our model and develop predictive capabilities in 1) quantifying the influence of prior diet preferences when food budgets are increased and 2) simulating the income elasticities of demand for four food categories. Food budgets can increase because of greater affordability (due to food aid and other nutritional assistance programs), or because of higher income. Our model predictions indicate that low-income adults consume unhealthy diets when they have highly constrained budgets, but that even after budget constraints are relaxed, these unhealthy eating behaviors are maintained. Specifically, diets in this population, before and after changes in food budgets, are characterized by relatively low consumption of fruits and vegetables and high consumption of fat. The model results for income elasticities also show almost no change in consumption of fruit and fat in response to changes in income, which is in agreement with data from the World Bank's International Comparison Program (ICP). Hence, the proposed method can be used in assessing the influences of habitual dietary patterns on the effectiveness of food policies.

  16. Capacity Expansion Modeling for Storage Technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hale, Elaine; Stoll, Brady; Mai, Trieu

    2017-04-03

    The Resource Planning Model (RPM) is a capacity expansion model designed for regional power systems and high levels of renewable generation. Recent extensions capture value-stacking for storage technologies, including batteries and concentrating solar power with storage. After estimating per-unit capacity value and curtailment reduction potential, RPM co-optimizes investment decisions and reduced-form dispatch, accounting for planning reserves; energy value, including arbitrage and curtailment reduction; and three types of operating reserves. Multiple technology cost scenarios are analyzed to determine level of deployment in the Western Interconnection under various conditions.

  17. Model complexity and choice of model approaches for practical simulations of CO2 injection, migration, leakage and long-term fate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Celia, Michael A. [Princeton Univ., NJ (United States)

    2016-12-30

    This report documents the accomplishments achieved during the project titled “Model complexity and choice of model approaches for practical simulations of CO2 injection,migration, leakage and long-term fate” funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Fossil Energy. The objective of the project was to investigate modeling approaches of various levels of complexity relevant to geologic carbon storage (GCS) modeling with the goal to establish guidelines on choice of modeling approach.

  18. Determinants of modelling choices for 1-D free-surface flow and erosion issues in hydrology: a review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheviron, B.; Moussa, R.

    2015-09-01

    This review paper investigates the determinants of modelling choices, for numerous applications of 1-D free-surface flow and erosion equations, across multiple spatiotemporal scales. We aim to characterize each case study by its signature composed of model refinement (Navier-Stokes: NS, Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes: RANS, Saint-Venant: SV or Approximations of Saint-Venant: ASV), spatiotemporal scales (domain length: L from 1 cm to 1000 km; temporal scale: T from 1 second to 1 year; flow depth: H from 1 mm to 10 m), flow typology (Overland: O, High gradient: Hg, Bedforms: B, Fluvial: F) and dimensionless numbers (Dimensionless time period T*, Reynolds number Re, Froude number Fr, Slope S, Inundation ratio Λz, Shields number θ). The determinants of modelling choices are therefore sought in the interplay between flow characteristics, cross-scale and scale-independent views. The influence of spatiotemporal scales on modelling choices is first quantified through the expected correlation between increasing scales and decreasing model refinements, identifying then flow typology a secondary but mattering determinant in the choice of model refinement. This finding is confirmed by the discriminating values of several dimensionless numbers, that prove preferential associations between model refinements and flow typologies. This review is intended to help each modeller positioning his (her) choices with respect to the most frequent practices, within a generic, normative procedure possibly enriched by the community for a larger, comprehensive and updated image of modelling strategies.

  19. The unified model of vegetarian identity: A conceptual framework for understanding plant-based food choices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenfeld, Daniel L; Burrow, Anthony L

    2017-05-01

    By departing from social norms regarding food behaviors, vegetarians acquire membership in a distinct social group and can develop a salient vegetarian identity. However, vegetarian identities are diverse, multidimensional, and unique to each individual. Much research has identified fundamental psychological aspects of vegetarianism, and an identity framework that unifies these findings into common constructs and conceptually defines variables is needed. Integrating psychological theories of identity with research on food choices and vegetarianism, this paper proposes a conceptual model for studying vegetarianism: The Unified Model of Vegetarian Identity (UMVI). The UMVI encompasses ten dimensions-organized into three levels (contextual, internalized, and externalized)-that capture the role of vegetarianism in an individual's self-concept. Contextual dimensions situate vegetarianism within contexts; internalized dimensions outline self-evaluations; and externalized dimensions describe enactments of identity through behavior. Together, these dimensions form a coherent vegetarian identity, characterizing one's thoughts, feelings, and behaviors regarding being vegetarian. By unifying dimensions that capture psychological constructs universally, the UMVI can prevent discrepancies in operationalization, capture the inherent diversity of vegetarian identities, and enable future research to generate greater insight into how people understand themselves and their food choices.

  20. Model of traffic access mode and railway station choice of suburban railway system in Slovenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregor RAK

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This article presents the establishment of a model of understanding the access mode and railway station choice of Slovenian passengers. Therefore, a model has been designed to predict the determination of existing decision making preferences of railway users about the access mode and railway station choice with a stated preference survey and face to face method. The target group in the survey were railway passengers in the suburban environment that use the rail for work and school purposes. The total number of respondents was 412. The survey showed that most passengers access the railway station with car (60,2%, by foot (26,2%, with public transport (bus – 8,3% and with bike (5,3%. Average distance to the station is 4,9 km, average time of access is 10,5 min. Upon exit most passengers walk to the final destination (84,5%, use the public transport (bus – 14,1%, car (1,2% or bike (0,2%. Average time from exit of the train to final destination is 13,1 min, average distance is 1,58 km.

  1. Women's career choices in chemistry: Motivations, perceptions, and a conceptual model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grunert, Megan L.

    Statistics showing the under-representation of women at all levels within the physical sciences abound, particularly at the graduate and faculty levels. Women chemists choosing an academic career tend to select teaching institutions over research institutions. This study examined women at the graduate and faculty levels through interviews and the construction of participant narratives to better understand why many women opt out of a career in academic research. Specific attention was paid to women's decision-making processes and what motivates women to choose careers, the rewards and challenges associated with different careers, and the perception of different careers contribute to their decisions. The participant narratives were analyzed on a cross-case basis and constructivist grounded theory was used to develop a model about women's decision-making regarding their careers. Additionally, preliminary work has suggested that graduate students have inaccurate perceptions of careers in academia. Interviews with faculty at teaching and research institutions provided a clearer picture of what each type of career entails. Career-choice motivators, rewards, and challenges were identified for each of the faculty groups. It was found that graduate student women have inaccurate perceptions of academic research careers, which affects how they make career decisions. A model of career choice shows interactions between motivation and perception that guide the career decision-making process. By better understanding these women and their motivations, changes can be made to foster inclusion and accommodation for women and other underrepresented groups in academic chemistry.

  2. Approach Choice and Innovative Model Design of Grass-root Agricultural Technology Promotion under the View of New Countryside%新农村视野下基层农技推广途径选择与创新模式设计

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    魏剑波; 戴育滨; 林伟强; 严会超; 孙雄松

    2011-01-01

    This paper introduces the approach types of agricultural technology promotion we can choose in the process ot new countryside construction , and there are mainly 6 types, namely govemment-domination-oriented approach, market-development-oriented approach, university (scientific research institution)-education-oriented approach, farmers* participation-oriented approach, direct-training-oriented approach and individual-service-oriented approach, including 20 models. The problems existing in the grass-root agricultural technology promotion in the process of new village construction are analyzed as follows: the awareness of innovation is not strong; scientific research, education, and promotion are disjointed; the construction of specific work system lags behind; the structure of promotion team is irrational, and the quality of promotion personnel is yet to be promoted; the cultural quality of farmers is low, and the cooperative organizations are not sound; the working conditions are poor, and the basic security is inadequate; the investment channel is simple and the supply amount is badly short; the methods of agricultural technology promotion do not adapt to the requirements of new situation. According to the characteristics and internal requirements of grass-root agricultural technology promotion, we creatively design an overall working model, and put forward new measures from objective of grass-root agricultural technology promotion, service object, service content, organization work and scope, method, role of agricultural technology personnel and so on.%介绍了新农村建设中农技推广中可供选择的途径,主要有政府主导型、市场开发型、大学(科研机构)教育型、农民参与型、直接培训型、个体服务型6种类型,共包括20种模式.分析了新农村建设中基层农技推广存在的问题:创新意识不强;科研、教育、推广脱节;具体工作制度建设滞后;推广队伍结构不合理,推广人员素

  3. Residential location choice of knowledge-workers: The role of amenities, workplace and lifestyle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frenkel, Amnon; Bendit, Edward; Kaplan, Sigal

    2013-01-01

    This study investigates the residential location choice of knowledge-workers at the intra-metropolitan level by applying discrete choice models. The models represent housing choices of 833 knowledge-workers in high-technology and financial services and analyze the relative importance of lifestyle...

  4. On the choice of statistical models for estimating occurrence and extinction from animal surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorazio, R.M.

    2007-01-01

    In surveys of natural animal populations the number of animals that are present and available to be detected at a sample location is often low, resulting in few or no detections. Low detection frequencies are especially common in surveys of imperiled species; however, the choice of sampling method and protocol also may influence the size of the population that is vulnerable to detection. In these circumstances, probabilities of animal occurrence and extinction will generally be estimated more accurately if the models used in data analysis account for differences in abundance among sample locations and for the dependence between site-specific abundance and detection. Simulation experiments are used to illustrate conditions wherein these types of models can be expected to outperform alternative estimators of population site occupancy and extinction. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

  5. Estimating health state utility values from discrete choice experiments--a QALY space model approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Yuanyuan; Norman, Richard; Viney, Rosalie

    2014-09-01

    Using discrete choice experiments (DCEs) to estimate health state utility values has become an important alternative to the conventional methods of Time Trade-Off and Standard Gamble. Studies using DCEs have typically used the conditional logit to estimate the underlying utility function. The conditional logit is known for several limitations. In this paper, we propose two types of models based on the mixed logit: one using preference space and the other using quality-adjusted life year (QALY) space, a concept adapted from the willingness-to-pay literature. These methods are applied to a dataset collected using the EQ-5D. The results showcase the advantages of using QALY space and demonstrate that the preferred QALY space model provides lower estimates of the utility values than the conditional logit, with the divergence increasing with worsening health states. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  6. Research on group expandable optimization decision-ms,king model for construction programme choice

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yan Hongyan

    2012-01-01

    Aiming at the decision-making problem of construction programme choice, this paper advanced a new group expandable optimization decision-making model. Various factors were comprehensively considered, and the new multi- attribute evaluation index system was established. Based on the assumption that decision-makers were rational, this pa- per formed a group of rational preferences through extracting the personal preferences pertinently, so the decision-makers position matrix was determined. The decision-makers position matrix integrated values given by group decision-makers to construction programme comprised a matrix, of which the entropy theory for data mining was adopted in this paper to determine the attribute weights. A decision was made by using the extension decision method. Eventually, the feasibility and practicability of the model were verified by the example.

  7. Using Latent Mixed Markov Models for the choice of the best pharmacological treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reuter, Martin; Hennig, Juergen; Netter, Petra; Buehner, Markus; Hueppe, Michael

    2004-05-15

    The choice of the best pharmacological treatment for an individual patient is crucial to optimize convalescence. Due to their effects on pharmacokinetics variables like gender and age are important factors when the pharmacological regimen is planned. By means of an example from anaesthesiology the usefulness of Latent Mixed Markov Models for choosing the optimal anaesthetic considering patient characteristics is demonstrated. Latent Mixed Markov models allow to predict and compare the quality of recovery from anaesthesia for different patient groups (defined by age and gender and treated with different anaesthetic regimens) in a multivariate non-parametric approach. On the basis of observed symptoms immediately after surgery and a few days later the probabilities for the respective dynamic latent status (like health or illness) and the probabilities for transition from one status to another are estimated depending on latent class membership (patient group).

  8. Modelling mode choice in short trips - shifting from car to bicycle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halldórsdóttir, Katrín; Christensen, Linda; Jensen, Thomas Christian

    2011-01-01

    This paper investigates the mode choice behaviour of Danish population from the Greater Copenhagen Area when travelling short trips. Data from the Danish National Transport Survey identify the travel behaviour of the Danish population through interviews collecting travel diaries and socio...... available for each period of the day in which the trip was conducted. The present study estimates a mixed logit model able to capture taste variations and differentiates travel time parameters across modes. The mixed logit model allows investigating the effect of level of service variables, individual...... characteristics of the travellers, purpose of the trips and environmental conditions. Results suggest heterogeneity among cyclists in the sensitivity to travel time, temperature and hilliness. The cost parameter is not significant, probably because of difficulties in the calculation, but possibly because of lower...

  9. Exemplary Training Models in Industrial Technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatton, Michael J., Comp.

    Prepared by Canadian, Chinese Taipei, and Thai educational agencies and based on surveys of Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation member nations, this report provides descriptions of 52 exemplary industrial technology training models in Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong, Malaysia, New Zealand, the Philippines, the People's Republic…

  10. NASA Chandra X-ray Observatory Selected as Editor's Choice in 2000 Discover Magazine Awards for Technological Innovation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2000-06-01

    The Chandra X-ray Observatory, NASA's newest and most powerful X-ray space telescope, has been selected as the winner of the Editor's Choice category of the 2000 Discover Magazine Awards for Technological Innovation. The team of government, industry, university and research institutions that designed, built and deployed Chandra for NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, Ala, will be formally recognized June 24 at a gala awards celebration at Epcot at the Walt Disney World Resort in Orlando, Fl. Dr. Harvey Tananbaum, director of the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory's Chandra X-ray Science Center, Cambridge, Mass., which conducts the Chandra science mission for NASA, will receive the award on behalf of the team. "Chandra has opened a new window for astronomers into the universe of high-energy cosmic events such as pulsars, supernova remnants and black holes," said Tananbaum. "We're now able to create spectacularly detailed images of celestial phenomena whose mere existence we could only hypothesize before." Among Chandra's most significant discoveries to date, he lists the detection of a giant ring around the heart of the Crab Nebula, details of the shock wave created by an exploding star and resolution of the high-energy X-ray "glow" in the universe into millions of specific light sources. "The successful launch, deployment and on-orbit operations of NASA's Chandra X-ray Observatory is a testament to the solid partnership between TRW, NASA and the science community that has been enabling NASA's most important space science missions for the past 40 years," said Timothy W. Hannemann, executive vice president and general manager, TRW Space & Electronics Group. "The extraordinary images that Chandra is delivering daily speaks loudly not only to the quality of the science instruments on board, but also to the engineering talents and dedication to mission success exhibited by every member of NASA's Chandra mission team." Chandra, named in honor of Nobel

  11. Consideration sets, intentions and the inclusion of "don't know" in a two-stage model for voter choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paap, R; van Nierop, E; van Heerde, HJ; Wedel, M; Franses, PH; Alsem, KJ

    2005-01-01

    We present a statistical model for voter choice that incorporates a consideration set stage and final vote intention stage. The first stage involves a multivariate probit (MVP) model to describe the probabilities that a candidate or a party gets considered. The second stage of the model is a

  12. Choice Overload, Satisficing Behavior, and Price Distribution in a Time Allocation Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Álvarez

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent psychological research indicates that consumers that search exhaustively for the best option of a market product—known as maximizers—eventually feel worse than consumers who just look for something good enough—called satisficers. We formulate a time allocation model to explore the relationship between different distributions of prices of the product and the satisficing behavior and the related welfare of the consumer. We show numerically that, as the number of options becomes large, the maximizing behavior produces less and less welfare and eventually leads to choice paralysis—these are effects of choice overload—whereas satisficing conducts entail higher levels of satisfaction and do not end up in paralysis. For different price distributions, we provide consistent evidence that maximizers are better off for a low number of options, whereas satisficers are better off for a sufficiently large number of options. We also show how the optimal satisficing behavior is affected when the underlying price distribution varies. We provide evidence that the mean and the dispersion of a symmetric distribution of prices—but not the shape of the distribution—condition the satisficing behavior of consumers. We also show that this need not be the case for asymmetric distributions.

  13. Using stated preference discrete choice modelling to evaluate the introduction of varicella vaccination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Jane; Kenny, Patricia; King, Madeleine; Louviere, Jordan; Viney, Rosalie; Yeoh, Angela

    2002-07-01

    Applications of stated preference discrete choice modelling (SPDCM) in health economics have been used to estimate consumer willingness to pay and to broaden the range of consequences considered in economic evaluation. This paper demonstrates how SPDCM can be used to predict participation rates, using the case of varicella (chickenpox) vaccination. Varicella vaccination may be cost effective compared to other public health programs, but this conclusion is sensitive to the proportion of the target population immunised. A choice experiment was conducted on a sample of Australian parents to predict uptake across a range of hypothetical programs. Immunisation rates would be increased by providing immunisation at no cost, by requiring it for school entry, by increasing immunisation rates in the community and decreasing the incidence of mild and severe side effects. There were two significant interactions; price modified the effect of both support from authorities and severe side effects. Country of birth was the only significant demographic characteristic. Depending on aspects of the immunisation program, the immunisation rates of children with Australian-born parents varied from 9% to 99% while for the children with parents born outside Australia they varied from 40% to 99%. This demonstrates how SPDCM can be used to understand the levels of attributes that will induce a change in the decision to immunise, the modification of the effect of one attribute by another, and subgroups in the population. Such insights can contribute to the optimal design and targeting of health programs.

  14. On the choice of calibration periods and objective functions: A practical guide to model parameter identification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romanowicz, Renata; Osuch, Marzena; Grabowiecka, Magdalena

    2013-12-01

    Despite the development of new measuring techniques, monitoring systems and advances in computer technology, rainfall-flow modelling is still a challenge. The reasons are multiple and fairly well known. They include the distributed, heterogeneous nature of the environmental variables affecting flow from the catchment. These are precipitation, evapotranspiration and in some seasons and catchments in Poland, snow melt also. This paper presents a review of work done on the calibration and validation of rainfall-runoff modelling, with a focus on the conceptual HBV model. We give a synthesis of the problems and propose a practical guide to the calibration and validation of rainfall-runoff models.

  15. Choice Model and Influencing Factor Analysis of Travel Mode for Migrant Workers: Case Study in Xi’an, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Chen

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on the basic theory and methods of disaggregate choice model, the influencing factors in travel mode choice for migrant workers are analyzed, according to 1366 data samples of Xi’an migrant workers. Walking, bus, subway, and taxi are taken as the alternative parts of travel modes for migrant workers, and a multinomial logit (MNL model of travel mode for migrant workers is set up. The validity of the model is verified by the hit rate, and the hit rates of four travel modes are all greater than 80%. Finally, the influence of different factors affecting the choice of travel mode is analyzed in detail, and the inelasticity of each factor is analyzed with the elasticity theory. Influencing factors such as age, education level, and monthly gross income have significant impact on travel choice mode for migrant workers. The elasticity values of education degree are greater than 1, indicating that it on the travel mode choice is of elasticity, while the elasticity values of gender, industry distribution, and travel purpose are less than 1, indicating that these factors on travel mode choice are of inelasticity.

  16. Long bone defect models for tissue engineering applications: criteria for choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horner, Elizabeth A; Kirkham, Jennifer; Wood, David; Curran, Stephen; Smith, Mark; Thomson, Brian; Yang, Xuebin B

    2010-04-01

    The replacement and repair of bone lost due to trauma, cancer, or congenital defects is a major clinical challenge. Skeletal tissue engineering is a potentially powerful strategy in modern regenerative medicine, and research in this field has increased greatly in recent years. Tissue engineering strategies seek to translate research findings in the fields of materials science, stem cell biology, and biomineralization into clinical applications, demanding the use of appropriate in vivo models to investigate bone regeneration of the long bone. However, identification of the optimal in vivo segmental bone defect model from the literature is difficult due to the use of different animal species (large and small mammals), different bones (weight-bearing and nonweight bearing), and multiple protocols, including the use of various scaffolds, cells, and bioactives. The aim of this review is to summarize the available animal models for evaluating long bone regeneration in vivo. We highlight the differences not only in species and sites but also in defect size, means of defect creation, duration of study, and fixation method. A critical evaluation of the most clinically relevant models is addressed to guide the researcher in his/her choice of the most appropriate model to use in future hypothesis-driven investigations.

  17. Amount of information needed for model choice in Approximate Bayesian Computation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stocks, Michael; Siol, Mathieu; Lascoux, Martin; De Mita, Stéphane

    2014-01-01

    Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) has become a popular technique in evolutionary genetics for elucidating population structure and history due to its flexibility. The statistical inference framework has benefited from significant progress in recent years. In population genetics, however, its outcome depends heavily on the amount of information in the dataset, whether that be the level of genetic variation or the number of samples and loci. Here we look at the power to reject a simple constant population size coalescent model in favor of a bottleneck model in datasets of varying quality. Not only is this power dependent on the number of samples and loci, but it also depends strongly on the level of nucleotide diversity in the observed dataset. Whilst overall model choice in an ABC setting is fairly powerful and quite conservative with regard to false positives, detecting weaker bottlenecks is problematic in smaller or less genetically diverse datasets and limits the inferences possible in non-model organism where the amount of information regarding the two models is often limited. Our results show it is important to consider these limitations when performing an ABC analysis and that studies should perform simulations based on the size and nature of the dataset in order to fully assess the power of the study.

  18. Over-parameterization: Destiny or choice for distributed, physically-based water quality models?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grabs, Thomas; Seibert, Jan; Ledesma, José L. J.; Köhler, Stephan; Laudon, Hjalmar; Bishop, Kevin

    2014-05-01

    There seems to be an implicit view among modelers that 'physically-based' water quality models require many parameters due to their nature. Here we exemplify how over-parameterization can be avoided without much compromise on the representation of physical processes when modeling stream water quality in a boreal forest catchment. Our approach is based on the realization that stream water quality is not simply the sum of the contributions from different landscape elements and takes hydrological connectivity into account. When accounting for hydrological connectivity in boreal areas with forested till soils, wetlands and riparian zones emerge as hot spots that almost completely buffer the chemical signal from any more distant hydrological unit. Our choice to exclude less important processes from hydrologically disconnected locations lead to the development of the parameter-parsimonious but physically-based Riparian flow-concentration Integration Model (RIM). Linking RIM with topography-based pedotransfer functions allows spatio-temporal simulations of variable stream water quality at the catchment scale. More importantly, however, RIM could be used for hypothesis testing, which is often hardly feasible when using water quality models with many parameters and degrees of freedom.

  19. Opponent actor learning (OpAL): modeling interactive effects of striatal dopamine on reinforcement learning and choice incentive.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Anne G E; Frank, Michael J

    2014-07-01

    The striatal dopaminergic system has been implicated in reinforcement learning (RL), motor performance, and incentive motivation. Various computational models have been proposed to account for each of these effects individually, but a formal analysis of their interactions is lacking. Here we present a novel algorithmic model expanding the classical actor-critic architecture to include fundamental interactive properties of neural circuit models, incorporating both incentive and learning effects into a single theoretical framework. The standard actor is replaced by a dual opponent actor system representing distinct striatal populations, which come to differentially specialize in discriminating positive and negative action values. Dopamine modulates the degree to which each actor component contributes to both learning and choice discriminations. In contrast to standard frameworks, this model simultaneously captures documented effects of dopamine on both learning and choice incentive-and their interactions-across a variety of studies, including probabilistic RL, effort-based choice, and motor skill learning.

  20. A Two-Dimensional CA Traffic Model with Dynamic Route Choices Between Residence and Workplace

    CERN Document Server

    Fang, Jun; Chen, Xi-Qun; Qin, Zheng

    2015-01-01

    The Biham, Middleton and Levine (BML) model is extended to describe dynamic route choices between the residence and workplace in cities. The traffic dynamic in the city with a single workplace is studied from the velocity diagram, arrival time probability distribution, destination arrival rate and convergence time. The city with double workplaces is also investigated to compared with a single workplace within the framework of four modes of urban growth. The transitional region is found in the velocity diagrams where the system undergoes a continuous transition from a moving phase to a completely jamming phase. We perform a finite-size scaling analysis of the critical density from a statistical point of view and the order parameter of this jamming transition is estimated. It is also found that statistical properties of urban traffic are greatly influenced by the urban area, workplace area and urban layout.

  1. Physical microscopic free-choice model in the framework of a Darwinian approach to quantum mechanics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baladron, Carlos [Departamento de Fisica Teorica, Atomica y Optica, Universidad de Valladolid, E-47011, Valladolid (Spain)

    2017-06-15

    A compatibilistic model of free choice for a fundamental particle is built within a general framework that explores the possibility that quantum mechanics be the emergent result of generalised Darwinian evolution acting on the abstract landscape of possible physical theories. The central element in this approach is a probabilistic classical Turing machine -basically an information processor plus a randomiser- methodologically associated with every fundamental particle. In this scheme every system acts not under a general law, but as a consequence of the command of a particular, evolved algorithm. This evolved programme enables the particle to algorithmically anticipate possible future world configurations in information space, and as a consequence, without altering the natural forward causal order in physical space, to incorporate elements to the decision making procedure that are neither purely random nor strictly in the past, but in a possible future. (copyright 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim)

  2. Interaction prediction between groundwater and quarry extension using discrete choice models and artificial neural networks

    CERN Document Server

    Barthélemy, Johan; Collier, Louise; Hallet, Vincent; Moriamé, Marie; Sartenaer, Annick

    2016-01-01

    Groundwater and rock are intensively exploited in the world. When a quarry is deepened the water table of the exploited geological formation might be reached. A dewatering system is therefore installed so that the quarry activities can continue, possibly impacting the nearby water catchments. In order to recommend an adequate feasibility study before deepening a quarry, we propose two interaction indices between extractive activity and groundwater resources based on hazard and vulnerability parameters used in the assessment of natural hazards. The levels of each index (low, medium, high, very high) correspond to the potential impact of the quarry on the regional hydrogeology. The first index is based on a discrete choice modelling methodology while the second is relying on an artificial neural network. It is shown that these two complementary approaches (the former being probabilistic while the latter fully deterministic) are able to predict accurately the level of interaction. Their use is finally illustrate...

  3. A model of adolescents' seeking of sexual content in their media choices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bleakley, Amy; Hennessy, Michael; Fishbein, Martin

    2011-07-01

    This article reports on the extent to which adolescents report actively seeking sexual content in media, identifies from which media they report seeking, estimates the association between seeking sexual information and romantic and sexual behavior, and shows that active seeking of sexual content in media sources is explained by an intention to seek such content using the Integrative Model of Behavioral Prediction, a reasoned action approach. The data are a national sample of 810 adolescents aged 13 to 18 years. Results show that 50% of adolescents reported actively seeking sexual content in their media choices, which included movies, television, music, Internet pornography sites, and magazines. Males sought sex content more than females, and gender differences were greatest for seeking from Internet pornography sites, movies, and television. Path analysis demonstrate that seeking sexual content is well-predicted by intentions to seek, and intentions are primarily driven by perceived normative pressure to seek sexual content.

  4. A hybrid mode choice model to account for the dynamic effect of inertia over time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cherchi, Elisabetta; Börjesson, Maria; Bierlaire, Michel

    gathered over a continuous period of time, six weeks, to study both inertia and the influence of habits. Tendency to stick with the same alternative is measured through lagged variables that link the current choice with the previous trip made with the same purpose, mode and time of day. However, the lagged...... effect of the previous trips is not constant but it depends on the individual propensity to undertake habitual trips which is captured by the individual specific latent variable. And the frequency of the trips in the previous week is used as an indicator of the habitual behavior. The model estimation...... confirms that the tendency to stick with the same alternative varies not only among modes but also across individuals as a function of the individual propensity to undertake habitual behavior....

  5. A review of urban residential choice models using agent-based modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huang, Qingxu; Parker, Dawn C.; Filatova, Tatiana; Sun, Shipeng

    2014-01-01

    Urban land-use modeling methods have experienced substantial improvements in the last several decades. With the advancement of urban land-use change theories and modeling techniques, a considerable number of models have been developed. The relatively young approach, agent-based modeling, provides ur

  6. Modeling the hospital safety partnership preferences of patients and their families: a discrete choice conjoint experiment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cunningham CE

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Charles E Cunningham,1 Tracy Hutchings,2 Jennifer Henderson,2 Heather Rimas,1 Yvonne Chen1 1Department of Psychiatry and Behavioural Neurosciences, Faculty of Health Sciences, Michael G DeGroote School of Medicine, McMaster University, 2Department of Quality and Performance, Hamilton Health Sciences, Hamilton, ON, Canada Background: Patients and their families play an important role in efforts to improve health service safety. Objective: The objective of this study is to understand the safety partnership preferences of patients and their families. Method: We used a discrete choice conjoint experiment to model the safety partnership preferences of 1,084 patients or those such as parents acting on their behalf. Participants made choices between hypothetical safety partnerships composed by experimentally varying 15 four-level partnership design attributes. Results: Participants preferred an approach to safety based on partnerships between patients and staff rather than a model delegating responsibility for safety to hospital staff. They valued the opportunity to participate in point of service safety partnerships, such as identity and medication double checks, that might afford an immediate risk reduction. Latent class analysis yielded two segments. Actively engaged participants (73.3% comprised outpatients with higher education, who anticipated more benefits to safety partnerships, were more confident in their ability to contribute, and were more intent on participating. They were more likely to prefer a personal engagement strategy, valued scientific evidence, preferred a more active approach to safety education, and advocated disclosure of errors. The passively engaged segment (26.7% anticipated fewer benefits, were less confident in their ability to contribute, and were less intent on participating. They were more likely to prefer an engagement strategy based on signage. They preferred that staff explain why they thought patients should help

  7. Computational models of the Posner simple and choice reaction time tasks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolina eFeher Da Silva

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The landmark experiments by Posner in the late 1970s have shown thatreaction time (RT is faster when the stimulus appears in an expectedlocation, as indicated by a cue; since then, the so-called Posnertask has been considered a ``gold standard'' test of spatial attention.It is thus fundamental to understand the neural mechanisms involvedin performing it. To this end, we have developed a Bayesian detectionsystem and small integrate-and-fire neural networks, which modeledsensory and motor circuits respectively, and optimized them to perform thePosner task under different cue type proportions and noise levels.In doing so, main findings of experimental research on RT were replicated:the relative frequency effect, suboptimal RTs and significant errorrates due to noise and invalid cues, slower RT for choice RT tasksthan for simple RT tasks, fastest RTs for valid cues and slowest RTsfor invalid cues. Analysis of the optimized systems revealed thatthe employed mechanisms were consistent with related findings in neurophysiology.Our models predict that (1 the results of a Posner task may be affectedby the relative frequency of valid and neutral trials, (2 in simpleRT tasks, input from multiple locations are added together to composea stronger signal, and (3 the cue affects motor circuits more stronglyin choice RT tasks than in simple RT tasks. In discussing the computationaldemands of the Posner task, attention has often been described asa filter that protects the nervous system, whose capacity is limited,from information overload. Our models, however, reveal that the mainproblems that must be overcome to perform the Posner task effectivelyare distinguishing signal from external noise and selectingthe appropriate response in the presence of internal noise.

  8. Airline Choice for Domestic Flights in Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area: An Application of the Conditional Logit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno, Marcelo Baena

    2006-01-01

    Using the conditional (multinomial) LOGIT model, this paper addresses airline choice in the S o Paulo Metropolitan Area. There are two airports in this region, where two, three or even four airlines compete for passengers flying to an array of domestic destinations. The airline choice is believed to be a result of the tradeoff passengers face among flight cost, flight frequency and airline performance. It was found that the lowest fare better explains airline choice than the highest fare, whereas direct flight frequencies give better explanation to airline choice than indirect (connections and stops) and total (direct plus indirect) ones. Out of 15 variables tested, the lowest fare was the variable that best explained airline choice. However, its signal was counterintuitive (positive) possibly because the cheapest airline was offering few flights, so passengers overwhelmingly failed to choose the cheapest airline. The model specification most adjusted to the data considered the lowest fare, direct flight frequency in the travel day and period (morning or afternoon peak) and airline age. Passengers departing from S o Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport (GRU) airport make their airline choice in terms of cost whereas those from Sao Paulo-Congonhas Airport (CGH) airport do not. Finally, senior passengers place more importance on airline age than junior passengers.

  9. Layers And Processes In The Model Of Technological Postal System

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lucia Madleňáková; Radovan Madleňák; Paweł Droździel; Ivan Kurtev

    2015-01-01

    The paper include important aspects of layer model of postal technological system such as makes the possibility to define rules for regulating, technical and technological requirements and interfaces...

  10. A robotics-based approach to modeling of choice reaching experiments on visual attention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soeren eStrauss

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a robotics-based model for choice reaching experiments on visual attention. In these experiments participants were asked to make rapid reach movements towards a target in an odd-colour search task, i.e. reaching for a green square among red squares and vice versa (e.g. Song & Nakayama, 2008. Interestingly these studies found that in a high number of trials movements were initially directed towards a distractor and only later were adjusted towards the target. These curved trajectories occurred particularly frequently when the target in the directly preceding trial had a different colour (priming effect. Our model is embedded in a closed-loop control of a LEGO robot arm aiming to mimic these reach movements. The model is based on our earlier work which suggests that target selection in visual search is implemented through parallel interactions between competitive and cooperative processes in the brain (Heinke & Backhaus, 2011; Heinke & Humphreys, 2003. To link this model with the control of the robot arm we implemented a topological representation of movement parameters following the dynamic field theory (Erlhagen & Schoener, 2002. The robot arm is able to mimic the results of the odd-colour search task including the priming effect and also generates human-like trajectories with a bell-shaped velocity profile. Theoretical implications and predictions are discussed in the paper.

  11. A Robotics-Based Approach to Modeling of Choice Reaching Experiments on Visual Attention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strauss, Soeren; Heinke, Dietmar

    2012-01-01

    The paper presents a robotics-based model for choice reaching experiments on visual attention. In these experiments participants were asked to make rapid reach movements toward a target in an odd-color search task, i.e., reaching for a green square among red squares and vice versa (e.g., Song and Nakayama, 2008). Interestingly these studies found that in a high number of trials movements were initially directed toward a distractor and only later were adjusted toward the target. These “curved” trajectories occurred particularly frequently when the target in the directly preceding trial had a different color (priming effect). Our model is embedded in a closed-loop control of a LEGO robot arm aiming to mimic these reach movements. The model is based on our earlier work which suggests that target selection in visual search is implemented through parallel interactions between competitive and cooperative processes in the brain (Heinke and Humphreys, 2003; Heinke and Backhaus, 2011). To link this model with the control of the robot arm we implemented a topological representation of movement parameters following the dynamic field theory (Erlhagen and Schoener, 2002). The robot arm is able to mimic the results of the odd-color search task including the priming effect and also generates human-like trajectories with a bell-shaped velocity profile. Theoretical implications and predictions are discussed in the paper. PMID:22529827

  12. Significance of hydrological model choice and land use changes when doing climate change impact assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjørnholt Karlsson, Ida; Obel Sonnenborg, Torben; Refsgaard, Jens Christian; Høgh Jensen, Karsten

    2014-05-01

    Uncertainty in impact studies arises both from Global Climate Models (GCM), emission projections, statistical downscaling, Regional Climate Models (RCM), hydrological models and calibration techniques (Refsgaard et al. 2013). Some of these uncertainties have been evaluated several times in the literature; however few studies have investigated the effect of hydrological model choice on the assessment results (Boorman & Sefton 1997; Jiang et al. 2007; Bastola et al. 2011). These studies have found that model choice results in large differences, up to 70%, in the predicted discharge changes depending on the climate input. The objective of the study is to investigate the impact of climate change on hydrology of the Odense catchment, Denmark both in response to (a) different climate projections (GCM-RCM combinations); (b) different hydrological models and (c) different land use scenarios. This includes: 1. Separation of the climate model signal; the hydrological model signal and the land use signal 2. How do the different hydrological components react under different climate and land use conditions for the different models 3. What land use scenario seems to provide the best adaptation for the challenges of the different future climate change scenarios from a hydrological perspective? Four climate models from the ENSEMBLES project (Hewitt & Griggs 2004): ECHAM5 - HIRHAM5, ECHAM5 - RCA3, ARPEGE - RM5.1 and HadCM3 - HadRM3 are used, assessing the climate change impact in three periods: 1991-2010 (present), 2041-2060 (near future) and 2081-2100 (far future). The four climate models are used in combination with three hydrological models with different conceptual layout: NAM, SWAT and MIKE SHE. Bastola, S., C. Murphy and J. Sweeney (2011). "The role of hydrological modelling uncertainties in climate change impact assessments of Irish river catchments." Advances in Water Resources 34: 562-576. Boorman, D. B. and C. E. M. Sefton (1997). "Recognising the uncertainty in the

  13. Modelling Technology for Building Fire Scene with Virtual Geographic Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Y.; Zhao, L.; Wei, M.; Zhang, H.; Liu, W.

    2017-09-01

    Building fire is a risky activity that can lead to disaster and massive destruction. The management and disposal of building fire has always attracted much interest from researchers. Integrated Virtual Geographic Environment (VGE) is a good choice for building fire safety management and emergency decisions, in which a more real and rich fire process can be computed and obtained dynamically, and the results of fire simulations and analyses can be much more accurate as well. To modelling building fire scene with VGE, the application requirements and modelling objective of building fire scene were analysed in this paper. Then, the four core elements of modelling building fire scene (the building space environment, the fire event, the indoor Fire Extinguishing System (FES) and the indoor crowd) were implemented, and the relationship between the elements was discussed also. Finally, with the theory and framework of VGE, the technology of building fire scene system with VGE was designed within the data environment, the model environment, the expression environment, and the collaborative environment as well. The functions and key techniques in each environment are also analysed, which may provide a reference for further development and other research on VGE.

  14. Bayesian model choice and information criteria in sparse generalized linear models

    CERN Document Server

    Foygel, Rina

    2011-01-01

    We consider Bayesian model selection in generalized linear models that are high-dimensional, with the number of covariates p being large relative to the sample size n, but sparse in that the number of active covariates is small compared to p. Treating the covariates as random and adopting an asymptotic scenario in which p increases with n, we show that Bayesian model selection using certain priors on the set of models is asymptotically equivalent to selecting a model using an extended Bayesian information criterion. Moreover, we prove that the smallest true model is selected by either of these methods with probability tending to one. Having addressed random covariates, we are also able to give a consistency result for pseudo-likelihood approaches to high-dimensional sparse graphical modeling. Experiments on real data demonstrate good performance of the extended Bayesian information criterion for regression and for graphical models.

  15. APPLICATION OF THE NUMERICAL MODELING METHODS TO THE TASK OF CHOICE OF THE CHILL ACCESSORY VENT HOLES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. N. Chichko

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The new method of choice of vent holes on the basis of numerical modeling, differing from the known ones by accounting of dynamics of gas phase, determined by modeling of the chill filling with metal, what allows to minimize the formation of gas defects in casting, is offered.

  16. Patterns of Reinforcement and the Essential Value of Brands: II. Evaluation of a Model of Consumer Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Ji; Foxall, Gordon R.; Doyle, John R.

    2012-01-01

    We employ a behavioral-economic equation put forward by Hursh and Silberberg (2008) to explain human consumption behavior among substitutable food brands, applying a consumer-choice model--the behavioral perspective model (BPM; Foxall, 1990/2004, 2005). In this study, we apply the behavioral-economic equation to human economic consumption data. We…

  17. Patterns of Reinforcement and the Essential Value of Brands: II. Evaluation of a Model of Consumer Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Ji; Foxall, Gordon R.; Doyle, John R.

    2012-01-01

    We employ a behavioral-economic equation put forward by Hursh and Silberberg (2008) to explain human consumption behavior among substitutable food brands, applying a consumer-choice model--the behavioral perspective model (BPM; Foxall, 1990/2004, 2005). In this study, we apply the behavioral-economic equation to human economic consumption data. We…

  18. Product with service, technology with business model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sakao, Tomohiko; McAloone, Tim C.

    2011-01-01

    Looking back over the last decade, the importance of an expanded understanding of engineering design has been shared within the engineering design community. Presented concepts and methods to support such expansion include Functional Product Development, Service Engineering, and Product/Service-S...... promising concept beyond PSS design; via an integrated development of technology and business model. This can be of particular interest for further research, especially due to its high freedom for designers....

  19. Determinants of modelling choices for 1-D free-surface flow and morphodynamics in hydrology and hydraulics: a review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheviron, Bruno; Moussa, Roger

    2016-09-01

    This review paper investigates the determinants of modelling choices, for numerous applications of 1-D free-surface flow and morphodynamic equations in hydrology and hydraulics, across multiple spatiotemporal scales. We aim to characterize each case study by its signature composed of model refinement (Navier-Stokes: NS; Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes: RANS; Saint-Venant: SV; or approximations to Saint-Venant: ASV), spatiotemporal scales and subscales (domain length: L from 1 cm to 1000 km; temporal scale: T from 1 s to 1 year; flow depth: H from 1 mm to 10 m; spatial step for modelling: δL; temporal step: δT), flow typology (Overland: O; High gradient: Hg; Bedforms: B; Fluvial: F), and dimensionless numbers (dimensionless time period T*, Reynolds number Re, Froude number Fr, slope S, inundation ratio Λz, Shields number θ). The determinants of modelling choices are therefore sought in the interplay between flow characteristics and cross-scale and scale-independent views. The influence of spatiotemporal scales on modelling choices is first quantified through the expected correlation between increasing scales and decreasing model refinements (though modelling objectives also show through the chosen spatial and temporal subscales). Then flow typology appears a secondary but important determinant in the choice of model refinement. This finding is confirmed by the discriminating values of several dimensionless numbers, which prove preferential associations between model refinements and flow typologies. This review is intended to help modellers in positioning their choices with respect to the most frequent practices, within a generic, normative procedure possibly enriched by the community for a larger, comprehensive and updated image of modelling strategies.

  20. A structural model of technology acceptance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Etienne Erasmus

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Orientation: Enterprise resource systems have not always led to significant organisational enhancement and many projects in which these systems have been implemented turn out to be over budget, not on time and unsuccessful.Research purpose: The aim of this study was to test the technology acceptance model within a South African SAP® Enterprise Resource Planning user environment.Motivation for the study: No study could be traced in which the technology acceptance model has been evaluated in the South African context.Research approach, design and method: A cross-sectional survey design was used. The 23-item Technology Acceptance Model Questionnaire was deployed amongst SAP® Enterprise Resource Planning users (N = 241. Main findings: The results confirmed significant paths from perceived usefulness of the information system to attitudes towards and behavioural intentions to use it. Furthermore, behavioural intention to use the system predicted actual use thereof. Perceived ease of use indirectly affected attitudes towards and behavioural intentions to use via perceived usefulness of the information system.Practical/managerial implications: Practitioners should build user confidence by ensuring the ease of use of a new system, providing relevant education, training and guidance and reiterating its usefulness and future added value to the user’s job and career.Contribution/value-add: This study contributes to scientific knowledge regarding the influence of individuals’ perceptions of information system usage on their attitudes, behavioural intentions and actual use of such a system.

  1. The effect of food related personality traits and lifestyle orientation on consumer’s behaviour related to extra virgin olive oil: estimation of an extended hybrid choice model.

    OpenAIRE

    Yangui, Ahmed1; Font, Montserrat Costa; Gil, José María

    2013-01-01

    Due to the increasing interest on understanding the formation of consumer’s food choice process, the hybrid choice model (HCM) has been developed. HCM represents a promising new class of models which merge classic choice models with structural equations models (SEM) for latent variables (LV). Regardless of their conceptual appeal, up to date the application of HCM in agro food marketing remains very scarce. The present work extends previous HCM applications by first estimating a random parame...

  2. MODELING AND OPTIMIZATION OF THE AEROCONCRETE TECHNOLOGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhukov Aleksey Dmitrievich

    2012-07-01

    Selection of the appropriate composition and optimal technological parameters is performed with the help of G-BAT-2011 software programme developed at MSUCE. The software is based on the methodology that is based on complete factorial experiments, experiments based on fractional replicates and testing of all essential statistical hypotheses. Linear, incomplete quadratic and quadratic equations generated as a result of experiments make it possible to design a model that represents natural processes in the adequate manner. The model is analytically optimized and interpreted thereafter.

  3. A framework for use in modelling the modal choice decision making process in North West England’s Atlantic Gateway

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bury Alan

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The task of producing a generic model of the modal choice decision making process is a challenging one. Modal choice is strongly influenced by the infrastructure limitations and geographical constraints of the area in which the decision is being made. With this in mind, addressing modal choice on an individual basis for each region may be the optimal solution. This is the approach adopted in this paper. The creation of a modal choice model is a multistage process of which this paper addresses the first stage, the production a framework of the decision making process. Firstly, a number of criteria that are commonly used in modal choice models are identified. Then a number of gaps in the criteria utilized in previous papers are established. Subsequently, the method used to produce a framework of the decision making process within North West England’s Atlantic Gateway is outlined. Through consultation with transport industry experts in North West England, an initial list of sixty eight papers was reduced to thirty six that were considered to be of specific relevance to modern day freight transportation within their region. The criteria used in each of these papers were then, along with further industry input, used to create the foundation on which a modal choice framework specific to the Atlantic Gateway could be built. A greater understanding of what influences modal choice within this region will allow informed decisions to be made by policy makers on how to more efficiently utilize the available modes of freight transport. Having established this, future work can then go on to build upon these findings. This paper recommends that future work is performed to establish the weights of each criteria and sub-criteria within the framework. This should then be followed by establishing industry’s perceptions of the best and worst alternatives for moving freight within the Atlantic Gateway.

  4. Impulsive choice behavior in four strains of rats: evaluation of possible models of Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Ana; Kirkpatrick, Kimberly

    2013-02-01

    Several studies have examined impulsive choice behavior in spontaneously hypertensive rats (SHRs) as a possible pre-clinical model for Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD). However, this strain was not specifically selected for the traits of ADHD and as a result their appropriateness as a model has been questioned. The present study investigated whether SHRs would exhibit impulsive behavior in comparison to their control strain, Wistar Kyoto (WKY) rats. In addition, we evaluated a strain that has previously shown high levels of impulsive choice, the Lewis (LEW) rats and compared them with their source strain, Wistar (WIS) rats. In the first phase, rats could choose between a smaller-sooner (SS) reward of 1 pellet after 10 s and a larger-later (LL) reward of 2 pellets after 30 s. Subsequently, the rats were exposed to increases in LL reward magnitude and SS delay. These manipulations were designed to assess sensitivity to magnitude and delay within the choice task to parse out possible differences in using the strains as models of specific deficits associated with ADHD. The SHR and WKY strains did not differ in their choice behavior under either delay or magnitude manipulations. In comparison to WIS, LEW showed deficits in choice behavior in the delay manipulation, and to a lesser extent in the magnitude manipulation. An examination of individual differences indicated that the SHR strain may not be sufficiently homogeneous in their impulsive choice behavior to be considered as a viable model for impulse control disorders such as ADHD. The LEW strain may be worthy of further consideration for their suitability as an animal model.

  5. A linear programming model of diet choice of free-living beavers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nolet, BA; VanderVeer, PJ; Evers, EGJ; Ottenheim, MM

    1995-01-01

    Linear programming has been remarkably successful in predicting the diet choice of generalist herbivores. We used this technique to test the diet choice of free-living beavers (Castor fiber) in the Biesbosch (The Netherlands) under different Foraging goals, i.e. maximization of intake of energy,

  6. The propensity and the postponement of firm relocations. Testing approaches for housing choice models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goetgeluk, R.W.; Louw, E.; Marien, A.A.A.

    2009-01-01

    Forecasting demand for industrial land and commercial property depends on a valid estimation how many firms move to various locations for various reasons. Estimations based on stated choices and revealed choices often differ in size and composition. Spatial and economic planning benefit if we reduce

  7. A linear programming model of diet choice of free-living beavers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nolet, BA; VanderVeer, PJ; Evers, EGJ; Ottenheim, MM

    1995-01-01

    Linear programming has been remarkably successful in predicting the diet choice of generalist herbivores. We used this technique to test the diet choice of free-living beavers (Castor fiber) in the Biesbosch (The Netherlands) under different Foraging goals, i.e. maximization of intake of energy, nit

  8. A model technology transfer program for independent operators: Kansas Technology Transfer Model (KTTM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoeling, L.G.

    1993-09-01

    This report describes the development and testing of the Kansas Technology Transfer Model (KTTM) which is to be utilized as a regional model for the development of other technology transfer programs for independent operators throughout oil-producing regions in the US. It describes the linkage of the regional model with a proposed national technology transfer plan, an evaluation technique for improving and assessing the model, and the methodology which makes it adaptable on a regional basis. The report also describes management concepts helpful in managing a technology transfer program. The original Tertiary Oil Recovery Project (TORP) activities, upon which the KTTM is based, were developed and tested for Kansas and have proved to be effective in assisting independent operators in utilizing technology. Through joint activities of TORP and the Kansas Geological Survey (KGS), the KTTM was developed and documented for application in other oil-producing regions. During the course of developing this model, twelve documents describing the implementation of the KTTM were developed as deliverables to DOE. These include: (1) a problem identification (PI) manual describing the format and results of six PI workshops conducted in different areas of Kansas, (2) three technology workshop participant manuals on advanced waterflooding, reservoir description, and personal computer applications, (3) three technology workshop instructor manuals which provides instructor material for all three workshops, (4) three technologies were documented as demonstration projects which included reservoir management, permeability modification, and utilization of a liquid-level acoustic measuring device, (5) a bibliography of all literature utilized in the documents, and (6) a document which describes the KTTM.

  9. Retail Location Choice with Complementary Goods: An Agent-Based Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Arthur; Levinson, David

    This paper models the emergence of retail clusters on a supply chain network comprised of suppliers, retailers, and consumers. Firstly, an agent-based model is proposed to investigate retail location distribution in a market of two complementary goods. The methodology controls for supplier locales and unit sales prices of retailers and suppliers, and a consumer’s willingness to patronize a retailer depends on the total travel distance of buying both goods. On a circle comprised of discrete locations, retailers play a non-cooperative game of location choice to maximize individual profits. Our findings suggest that the probability distribution of the number of clusters in equilibrium follows power law and that hierarchical distribution patterns are much more likely to occur than the spread-out ones. In addition, retailers of complementary goods tend to co-locate at supplier locales. Sensitivity tests on the number of retailers are also performed. Secondly, based on the County Business Patterns (CBP) data of Minneapolis-St. Paul from US Census 2000 database, we find that the number of clothing stores and the distribution of food stores at the zip code level follows power-law distribution.

  10. Energy technologies and energy efficiency in economic modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klinge Jacobsen, Henrik

    1998-01-01

    This paper discusses different approaches to incorporating energy technologies and technological development in energy-economic models. Technological development is a very important issue in long-term energy demand projections and in environmental analyses. Different assumptions on technological ...... of renewable energy and especially wind power will increase the rate of efficiency improvement. A technologically based model in this case indirectly makes the energy efficiency endogenous in the aggregate energy-economy model.......This paper discusses different approaches to incorporating energy technologies and technological development in energy-economic models. Technological development is a very important issue in long-term energy demand projections and in environmental analyses. Different assumptions on technological...... development are one of the main causes for the very diverging results which have been obtained using bottom-up and top-down models for analysing the costs of greenhouse gas mitigation. One of the objectives for studies comparing model results have been to create comparable model assumptions regarding...

  11. Reduced impact of emotion on choice behavior in presymptomatic BACHD rats, a transgenic rodent model for Huntington Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adjeroud, Najia; Yagüe, Sara; Yu-Taeger, Libo; Bozon, Bruno; Leblanc-Veyrac, Pascale; Riess, Olaf; Allain, Philippe; Nguyen, Huu Phuc; Doyère, Valérie; El Massioui, Nicole

    2015-11-01

    Executive dysfunction and psychiatric symptoms are hallmarks of Huntington disease (HD), a neurodegenerative disorder genetically characterized by expanded CAG repeats in the HTT gene. Using the BACHD rat model of HD (97 CAG-CAA repeats), the present research seeks to characterize the progressive emergence of decision-making impairments in a rat version of the Iowa Gambling Task (RGT) and the impact of emotional modulation, whether positive or negative, on choice behavior. The choice efficiency shown both by WT rats (independent of their age) and the youngest BACHD rats (2 and 8months old) evidenced that they are able to integrate outcomes of past decisions to determine expected reward values for each option. However, 18months old BACHD rats made fewer choices during the RGT session and were less efficient in choosing advantageous options than younger animals. Presenting either chocolate pellets or electrical footshocks half-way through a second RGT session reduced exploratory activity (inefficient nose-poking) and choices with a weaker effect on BACHD animals than on WT. Choice efficiency was left intact in transgenic rats. Our results bring new knowledge on executive impairments and impact of emotional state on decision-making at different stages of the disease, increasing the face-validity of the BACHD rat model. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. A multi-model multi-objective study to evaluate the role of metric choice on sensitivity assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haghnegahdar, Amin; Razavi, Saman; Wheater, Howard; Gupta, Hoshin

    2016-04-01

    Sensitivity analysis (SA) is an essential tool for providing insight into model behavior, calibration, and uncertainty assessment. It is often overlooked that the metric choice can significantly change the assessment of model sensitivity. In order to identify important hydrological processes across various case studies, we conducted a multi-model multi-criteria sensitivity analysis using a novel and efficient technique, Variogram Analysis of Response Surfaces (VARS). The analysis was conducted using three physically-based hydrological models, applied at various scales ranging from small (hillslope) to large (watershed) scale. In each case, the sensitivity of simulated streamflow to model processes (represented through parameters) were measured using different metrics selected based on various hydrograph characteristics including high flows, low flows, and volume. It is demonstrated that metric choice has a significant influence on SA results and must be aligned with study objectives. Guidelines for identifying important model parameters from a multi-objective SA perspective is discussed as part of this study.

  13. An agent-based simulation model of patient choice of health care providers in accountable care organizations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alibrahim, Abdullah; Wu, Shinyi

    2016-10-04

    Accountable care organizations (ACO) in the United States show promise in controlling health care costs while preserving patients' choice of providers. Understanding the effects of patient choice is critical in novel payment and delivery models like ACO that depend on continuity of care and accountability. The financial, utilization, and behavioral implications associated with a patient's decision to forego local health care providers for more distant ones to access higher quality care remain unknown. To study this question, we used an agent-based simulation model of a health care market composed of providers able to form ACO serving patients and embedded it in a conditional logit decision model to examine patients capable of choosing their care providers. This simulation focuses on Medicare beneficiaries and their congestive heart failure (CHF) outcomes. We place the patient agents in an ACO delivery system model in which provider agents decide if they remain in an ACO and perform a quality improving CHF disease management intervention. Illustrative results show that allowing patients to choose their providers reduces the yearly payment per CHF patient by $320, reduces mortality rates by 0.12 percentage points and hospitalization rates by 0.44 percentage points, and marginally increases provider participation in ACO. This study demonstrates a model capable of quantifying the effects of patient choice in a theoretical ACO system and provides a potential tool for policymakers to understand implications of patient choice and assess potential policy controls.

  14. Choice of routing scheme considerably influences peak river discharge simulation in global hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Fang; Veldkamp, Ted; Schauberger, Bernhard; Willner, Sven; Yamazaki, Dai

    2017-04-01

    Global hydrological models (GHMs) have been applied to assess global flood hazards. However, their capacity to capture the timing and amplitude of peak river discharge—which is crucial in flood simulations—has traditionally not been the focus of examination. Here we evaluate to what degree the choice of river routing scheme affects simulations of peak discharge and may help to provide better agreement with observations. To this end we use runoff and discharge simulations of nine GHMs forced by observational climate data (1971-2010) within the ISIMIP2a project. The runoff simulations were used as input for the global river routing model CaMa-Flood. The simulated daily discharges were compared to the discharge generated by each GHM using its native river routing scheme. For each GHM both versions of simulated discharge were compared to monthly and daily discharge observations from 1701 GRDC stations as a benchmark. CaMa-Flood routing shows a general reduction of peak river discharge and a delay of about two to three weeks in its occurrence, probably induced by the buffering capacity of floodplain reservoirs. For most river basins, discharge produced by CaMa-Flood resulted in a better agreement with observations. In particular, maximum daily discharge was adjusted, with a multi-model averaged reduction in bias over more than 60% of the basin area. The increase in agreement was obtained in both managed and near-natural basins. Overall, this study demonstrates the importance of routing scheme in peak discharge simulation, where CaMa-Flood routing accounts for floodplain storage and backwater effects that are not present in most GHMs. Our study provides important hints that an explicit parameterisation of these processes may be essential in future impact studies.

  15. The Fixed-Links Model in Combination with the Polynomial Function as a Tool for Investigating Choice Reaction Time Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schweizer, Karl

    2006-01-01

    A model with fixed relations between manifest and latent variables is presented for investigating choice reaction time data. The numbers for fixation originate from the polynomial function. Two options are considered: the component-based (1 latent variable for each component of the polynomial function) and composite-based options (1 latent…

  16. A Model of Creativity in Organizations: John Holland's Theory of Vocational Choice (1973) at Multiple Levels of Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharif, Rukhsar

    2017-01-01

    This conceptual paper serves to create a model of creativity and innovation at different organizational levels. It draws on John Holland's Theory of Vocational Choice (1973) as the basis for its structure by incorporating the six different personality types from his theory: conventional, enterprising, realistic, social, investigative, and…

  17. Modeling individual and collective opinion in online social networks: drivers of choice behavior and effects of marketing interventions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koster, S.E.; Langley, D.J.

    2013-01-01

    We investigate factors influencing choice behavior in online social networks. We use twitter data from a Dutch television talent show. In study one, we implement a nested conditional logit model with latent classes. We find heterogeneous effects. For two latent classes, cognitive factors most strong

  18. Renewable energy systems the choice and modeling of 100% renewable solutions

    CERN Document Server

    Lund, Henrik

    2009-01-01

    How can society quickly convert to renewable energy? Can worldwide energy needs ever be met through 100% renewable sources? The answers to these questions rest largely on the perception of choice in the energy arena. It is of pivotal importance that engineers, researchers and policymakers understand what choices are available, and reasonable, when considering the design and deployment of new energy systems. The mission of this new book, written by one of the world's foremost experts in renewable power, is to arm these professionals with the tools and methodologies necessary to make smart choic

  19. Re-evaluating neonatal-age models for ungulates: Does model choice affect survival estimates?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grovenburg, Troy W.; Monteith, Kevin L.; Jacques, Christopher N.; Klaver, Robert W.; DePerno, Christopher S.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Monteith, Kyle B.; Gilbert, Sophie L.; Smith, Joshua B.; Bleich, Vernon C.; Swanson, Christopher C.; Jenks, Jonathan A.

    2014-01-01

    New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001–2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly

  20. Re-Evaluating Neonatal-Age Models for Ungulates: Does Model Choice Affect Survival Estimates?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grovenburg, Troy W.; Monteith, Kevin L.; Jacques, Christopher N.; Klaver, Robert W.; DePerno, Christopher S.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Monteith, Kyle B.; Gilbert, Sophie L.; Smith, Joshua B.; Bleich, Vernon C.; Swanson, Christopher C.; Jenks, Jonathan A.

    2014-01-01

    New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001–2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly

  1. Residential location choice of knowledge-workers in a "startup metropolis": the role of amenities, workplace and lifestyle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frenkel, Amnon; Bendit, Edward; Kaplan, Sigal

    2013-01-01

    This study investigates the residential location choice of knowledge-workers at the intra-metropolitan level by applying discrete choice models. The models represent housing choices of 833 knowledge-workers in high-technology and financial services and analyze the relative importance of lifestyle...

  2. Analyzing Factors Influencing Teaching as a Career Choice Using Structural Equation Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Budhinath Padhy

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the study is to analyze factors influencing students’ perceptions of teaching as a career choice using structural equation modeling with the goal of shaping a teacher education recruitment program. In this study, 458 students from a Midwestern university in the United States responded to an online survey about career-related factors they value, their expectation that teaching would offer those factors, and any social-influence factors that might encourage them to choose a teaching career. The effect of 10 exogenous motivation variables (value-environment, value-intrinsic, value-extrinsic, value-altruistic, expectancy-environment, expectancy-intrinsic, expectancy-extrinsic, social-media-education, social-prior-experience, and social-suggestions on choosing a teaching career was examined. Results of our analysis showed that the factors related to expectancy-environment, expectancy-intrinsic, social-media-education, social-prior-experience, and social-suggestions were found to be significant, whereas value-related factors and expectancy-extrinsic factors were found to be insignificant.

  3. Group Communication Media Choice and the Use of Information and Communication Technology to Support Learning: A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdul Karim, Nor Shariza; Heckman, Robert

    2005-01-01

    Purpose: This paper reports a study conducted longitudinally to investigate group communication media choice and the use of a web-based learning tool, as well as other types of communication media, such as e-mail, telephone, and face-to-face, for communication and collaboration to complete given tasks. Design/methodology/approach: This study was…

  4. Advanced technologies for genetically manipulating the silkworm Bombyx mori, a model Lepidopteran insect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Hanfu; O'Brochta, David A

    2015-07-07

    Genetic technologies based on transposon-mediated transgenesis along with several recently developed genome-editing technologies have become the preferred methods of choice for genetically manipulating many organisms. The silkworm, Bombyx mori, is a Lepidopteran insect of great economic importance because of its use in silk production and because it is a valuable model insect that has greatly enhanced our understanding of the biology of insects, including many agricultural pests. In the past 10 years, great advances have been achieved in the development of genetic technologies in B. mori, including transposon-based technologies that rely on piggyBac-mediated transgenesis and genome-editing technologies that rely on protein- or RNA-guided modification of chromosomes. The successful development and application of these technologies has not only facilitated a better understanding of B. mori and its use as a silk production system, but also provided valuable experiences that have contributed to the development of similar technologies in non-model insects. This review summarizes the technologies currently available for use in B. mori, their application to the study of gene function and their use in genetically modifying B. mori for biotechnology applications. The challenges, solutions and future prospects associated with the development and application of genetic technologies in B. mori are also discussed.

  5. RECENT RELATED RESEARCH IN TECHNOLOGY ACCEPTANCE MODEL: A LITERATURE REVIEW

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shih-Chih Chen

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Technology Acceptance Model is widely applied to access users’ usage in various information system/information technology areas. Learning the critical role of Technology Acceptance Model can guide researchers to design different users’ interface for different online customers, and consequently achieve high user usage in different application areas. This study reviewed 24 studies to understand the past, now and future of Technology Acceptance Model. We discussed the related studies to clarify the extension of Technology Acceptance Model. Besides, the application areas are elaborated including electronic service, mobile data service, self-service technology, electronic learning and so on. Finally, the article concluded the conclusions and future research direction.

  6. A hybrid mode choice model to account for the dynamic effect of inertia over time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cherchi, Elisabetta; Börjesson, Maria; Bierlaire, Michel

    gathered over a continuous period of time, six weeks, to study both inertia and the influence of habits. Tendency to stick with the same alternative is measured through lagged variables that link the current choice with the previous trip made with the same purpose, mode and time of day. However, the lagged......The influence of habits, giving rise to inertia effect, in the choice process has been intensely debated in the literature. Typically inertia is accounted for by letting the indirect utility functions of the alternatives of the choice situation at time t depend on the outcome of the choice made...... at a previous point in time. However, according to the psychological literature, inertia is the results of a habit, which is formed in a longer process where many past decisions (not only the immediately previous one) remain in the memory of the consumer and influence behavior. In this study we use panel data...

  7. Model and Measurement Methodology for the Analysis of Consumer Choice of Food Products

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Wierenga (Berend)

    1983-01-01

    textabstractThis paper considers the problem of a consumer purchasing a food product within a certain product class (e. g. meat, bread, vegetables, soft drinks, cheese) and making a choice from the different alternatives that are available.

  8. Model and Measurement Methodology for the Analysis of Consumer Choice of Food Products

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Wierenga (Berend)

    1983-01-01

    textabstractThis paper considers the problem of a consumer purchasing a food product within a certain product class (e. g. meat, bread, vegetables, soft drinks, cheese) and making a choice from the different alternatives that are available.

  9. Industrialized Development Models of Agricultural Scientific and Technological Achievements

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wanjiang; WANG

    2015-01-01

    Industrialization of agricultural scientific and technological achievements has become an extremely important part in agricultural structural adjustment and agricultural economic development. Basic models for industrialization of China’s agricultural scientific and technological achievements should be:( i) integrating scientific and technological development and production relying on large enterprises;( ii) integrating scientific research and development with agricultural scientific and technological achievements and scientific research institutions as support;( iii) spindle type transformation;( vi) agricultural scientific and technological demonstration area;( v) technology extension network.

  10. Incorporating environmental attitudes in discrete choice models: an exploration of the utility of the awareness of consequences scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoyos, David; Mariel, Petr; Hess, Stephane

    2015-02-01

    Environmental economists are increasingly interested in better understanding how people cognitively organise their beliefs and attitudes towards environmental change in order to identify key motives and barriers that stimulate or prevent action. In this paper, we explore the utility of a commonly used psychometric scale, the awareness of consequences (AC) scale, in order to better understand stated choices. The main contribution of the paper is that it provides a novel approach to incorporate attitudinal information into discrete choice models for environmental valuation: firstly, environmental attitudes are incorporated using a reinterpretation of the classical AC scale recently proposed by Ryan and Spash (2012); and, secondly, attitudinal data is incorporated as latent variables under a hybrid choice modelling framework. This novel approach is applied to data from a survey conducted in the Basque Country (Spain) in 2008 aimed at valuing land-use policies in a Natura 2000 Network site. The results are relevant to policy-making because choice models that are able to accommodate underlying environmental attitudes may help in designing more effective environmental policies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Preference pulses and the win-stay, fix-and-sample model of choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hachiga, Yosuke; Sakagami, Takayuki; Silberberg, Alan

    2015-11-01

    Two groups of six rats each were trained to respond to two levers for a food reinforcer. One group was trained on concurrent variable-ratio 20 extinction schedules of reinforcement. The second group was trained on a concurrent variable-interval 27-s extinction schedule. In both groups, lever-schedule assignments changed randomly following reinforcement; a light cued the lever providing the next reinforcer. In the next condition, the light cue was removed and reinforcer assignment strictly alternated between levers. The next two conditions redetermined, in order, the first two conditions. Preference pulses, defined as a tendency for relative response rate to decline to the just-reinforced alternative with time since reinforcement, only appeared during the extinction schedule. Although the pulse's functional form was well described by a reinforcer-induction equation, there was a large residual between actual data and a pulse-as-artifact simulation (McLean, Grace, Pitts, & Hughes, 2014) used to discern reinforcer-dependent contributions to pulsing. However, if that simulation was modified to include a win-stay tendency (a propensity to stay on the just-reinforced alternative), the residual was greatly reduced. Additional modifications of the parameter values of the pulse-as-artifact simulation enabled it to accommodate the present results as well as those it originally accommodated. In its revised form, this simulation was used to create a model that describes response runs to the preferred alternative as terminating probabilistically, and runs to the unpreferred alternative as punctate with occasional perseverative response runs. After reinforcement, choices are modeled as returning briefly to the lever location that had been just reinforced. This win-stay propensity is hypothesized as due to reinforcer induction. © Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

  12. Factors Affecting the Choice of Software Life Cycle Models in the Software Industry-An Empirical Study

    OpenAIRE

    Vandana Bhattacherjee; M. S. Neogi; Rupa Mahanti

    2012-01-01

    Problem statement: The aim of this study was to present the results of the survey conducted with software professionals in a few Indian software companies. Approach: The study initially presents an overview of the common software life cycle models used in the software development. Results and Conclusion: The survey results revealed that the level of understanding of the user requirements is the most important fact in the choice of the life cycle model used in the software project. Project Com...

  13. Anatomical features for an adequate choice of experimental animal model in biomedicine: II. Small laboratory rodents, rabbit, and pig.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lossi, Laura; D'Angelo, Livia; De Girolamo, Paolo; Merighi, Adalberto

    2016-03-01

    The anatomical features distinctive to each of the very large array of species used in today's biomedical research must be born in mind when considering the correct choice of animal model(s), particularly when translational research is concerned. In this paper we take into consideration and discuss the most important anatomical and histological features of the commonest species of laboratory rodents (rat, mouse, guinea pig, hamster, and gerbil), rabbit, and pig related to their importance for applied research.

  14. Customer’s Choice amongst Self Service Technology (SST Channels in Retail Banking: A Study Using Analytical Hierar chy Process (AHP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thamaraiselvan Natarajan

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available In the retail banking context, convergence of technologies has given birth to different channels of distribution like Automatic Teller machines (ATM, internet banking, and mobile banking. This enables the customer to avail the banking services at any time and any where. These technological interfaces are known as self service technologies (SSTs. Customers availing banking services through these SSTs get more benefits in terms of time, cost and energy. Despite these benefits the customer trial, adoption and repeat usage of SSTs vary among banking customers. Although the kinds of service one can avail from these SST are similar, th e patronage among the SSTs differs. The SST channel choice could be attributed to various factors viz., Nature of service to be availed or purpose, Perceived risk, Requirements and Benefits. When it comes to predicting customer priority among alternatives, Anal ytical hierarchy process (AHP has been proved as an effective technique. This paper explores the factors influencing customer choice of SSTs by employing AHP technique

  15. RECENT RELATED RESEARCH IN TECHNOLOGY ACCEPTANCE MODEL: A LITERATURE REVIEW

    OpenAIRE

    Shih-Chih Chen; Shing-Han Li; Chien-Yi Li

    2011-01-01

    Technology Acceptance Model is widely applied to access users’ usage in various information system/information technology areas. Learning the critical role of Technology Acceptance Model can guide researchers to design different users’ interface for different online customers, and consequently achieve high user usage in different application areas. This study reviewed 24 studies to understand the past, now and future of Technology Acceptance Model. We discussed the related studies to ...

  16. CFD Modeling for Mercury Control Technology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Madsen, J.I.

    2006-12-01

    Compliance with the Clean Air Mercury Rule will require implementation of dedicated mercury control solutions at a significant portion of the U.S. coal-fired utility fleet. Activated Carbon Injection (ACI) upstream of a particulate control device (ESP or baghouse) remains one of the most promising near-term mercury control technologies. The DOE/NETL field testing program has advanced the understanding of mercury control by ACI, but a persistent need remains to develop predictive models that may improve the understanding and practical implementation of this technology. This presentation describes the development of an advanced model of in-flight mercury capture based on Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD). The model makes detailed predictions of the induct spatial distribution and residence time of sorbent, as well as predictions of mercury capture efficiency for particular sorbent flow rates and injection grid configurations. Hence, CFD enables cost efficient optimization of sorbent injection systems for mercury control to a degree that would otherwise be impractical both for new and existing plants. In this way, modeling tools may directly address the main cost component of operating an ACI system – the sorbent expense. A typical 300 MW system is expected to require between $1 and $2 million of sorbent per year, and so even modest reductions (say 10-20%) in necessary sorbent feed injection rates will quickly make any optimization effort very worthwhile. There are few existing models of mercury capture, and these typically make gross assumptions of plug gas flow, zero velocity slip between particle and gas phase, and uniform sorbent dispersion. All of these assumptions are overcome with the current model, which is based on first principles and includes mass transfer processes occurring at multiple scales, ranging from the large-scale transport in the duct to transport within the porous structure of a sorbent particle. In principle any single one of these processes

  17. Railway and road discrete choice model for foreign trade freight between Antioquia and the Port of Cartagena

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. D. Pineda-Jaramillo

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Most Colombian freight is transported on roads with barely acceptable conditions, and although there is a speculation about the need for a railway for freight transportation, there is not a study in Colombia showing the variables that influence the modal choice by the companies that generate freight transportation. This article presents the calculation of demand for a hypothetical railway through a discrete choice model. It begins with a qualitative research through focus group techniques to identify the variables that influence the choice of persons responsible for the transportation of large commercial companies in Antioquia (Colombia. The influential variables in the election were the cost and service frequency, and these variables were used to apply a Stated Preference (SP and Revealed Preference (RP survey, then to calibrate a Multinomial Logit Model (MNL, and to estimate the influence of each of them. We show that the probability of railway choice by the studied companies varies between 67% and 93%, depending on differences in these variables.

  18. Impact of modeling Choices on Inventory and In-Cask Criticality Calculations for Forsmark 3 BWR Spent Fuel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martinez-Gonzalez, Jesus S. [Univ. Politecnica de Madrid (Spain); Ade, Brian J. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Bowman, Stephen M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Gauld, Ian C. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Ilas, Germina [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Marshall, William BJ J. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2015-01-01

    Simulation of boiling water reactor (BWR) fuel depletion poses a challenge for nuclide inventory validation and nuclear criticality safety analyses. This challenge is due to the complex operating conditions and assembly design heterogeneities that characterize these nuclear systems. Fuel depletion simulations and in-cask criticality calculations are affected by (1) completeness of design information, (2) variability of operating conditions needed for modeling purposes, and (3) possible modeling choices. These effects must be identified, quantified, and ranked according to their significance. This paper presents an investigation of BWR fuel depletion using a complete set of actual design specifications and detailed operational data available for five operating cycles of the Swedish BWR Forsmark 3 reactor. The data includes detailed axial profiles of power, burnup, and void fraction in a very fine temporal mesh for a GE14 (10×10) fuel assembly. The specifications of this case can be used to assess the impacts of different modeling choices on inventory prediction and in-cask criticality, specifically regarding the key parameters that drive inventory and reactivity throughout fuel burnup. This study focused on the effects of the fidelity with which power history and void fraction distributions are modeled. The corresponding sensitivity of the reactivity in storage configurations is assessed, and the impacts of modeling choices on decay heat and inventory are addressed.

  19. Uncertainty modeling process for semantic technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rommel N. Carvalho

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The ubiquity of uncertainty across application domains generates a need for principled support for uncertainty management in semantically aware systems. A probabilistic ontology provides constructs for representing uncertainty in domain ontologies. While the literature has been growing on formalisms for representing uncertainty in ontologies, there remains little guidance in the knowledge engineering literature for how to design probabilistic ontologies. To address the gap, this paper presents the Uncertainty Modeling Process for Semantic Technology (UMP-ST, a new methodology for modeling probabilistic ontologies. To explain how the methodology works and to verify that it can be applied to different scenarios, this paper describes step-by-step the construction of a proof-of-concept probabilistic ontology. The resulting domain model can be used to support identification of fraud in public procurements in Brazil. While the case study illustrates the development of a probabilistic ontology in the PR-OWL probabilistic ontology language, the methodology is applicable to any ontology formalism that properly integrates uncertainty with domain semantics.

  20. Acceptance model and use of technology in science and technology domain / M.V Tshevhase

    OpenAIRE

    Tshivhase, M V

    2012-01-01

    The research is intended to develop the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) in the science domain and determine whether it could provide enough explanation of the acceptance in terms of perceived usefulness and perceived ease of use, and attitude towards use and intention of use in the science and technology domain. The study has investigated the contribution to technology acceptance by examining a research model that integrates age, gender, technology competency and the differen...

  1. How is technology accepted by users? A review of technology acceptance models and theories

    OpenAIRE

    Alomary, Azza; Woollard, John

    2015-01-01

    This paper provides a literature review of the popular theories and models of technology acceptance of relevance to today’s technology developments in the 4E context. The original technology acceptance model (TAM) was derived from the theory of reasoned action and has since been developed and extended to include factors of age, gender, prior experience, ability, etc. It provides the framework to measure users’ perceptions of and intentions to use technology within and across organisations. Th...

  2. The choice of the fuel assembly for VVER-1000 in a closed fuel cycle based on REMIX-technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bobrov Evgenii

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper shows basic features of different fuel assembly (FA application for VVER-1000 in a closed fuel cycle based on REMIX-technology. This investigation shows how the change in the water–fuel ratio in the VVER FA affects on the fuel characteristics produced by REMIX technology during multiple recycling.

  3. Public acceptance of energy technologies : The effects of labeling, time, and heterogeneity in a discrete choice experiment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Rijnsoever, Frank J.; Van Mossel, Allard; Broecks, Kevin P F

    2015-01-01

    Public acceptance is crucial for successful implementation of energy technologies in society. However, studies that use the concept do so in diverse and often inconsistent ways. They also often limit themselves to specific technologies and do not account for the effects of labeling, time, and the

  4. Values, Choices, Responsibilities: Thinking beyond the Scholarly Place of Ethics for the GIScience and Technology Profession and GIScience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey, Francis

    2014-01-01

    To help ethical issues gain traction in geographic information technology education, this article proposes that the education of GIScience and technology professionals go beyond abstract scholarly ethics to applied approaches based on practical wisdom. The main point for educators made in this paper is that applied ethics' focus on values,…

  5. Public acceptance of energy technologies : The effects of labeling, time, and heterogeneity in a discrete choice experiment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Rijnsoever, Frank J.; Van Mossel, Allard; Broecks, Kevin P F

    2015-01-01

    Public acceptance is crucial for successful implementation of energy technologies in society. However, studies that use the concept do so in diverse and often inconsistent ways. They also often limit themselves to specific technologies and do not account for the effects of labeling, time, and the he

  6. Towards a Model of Technology Adoption: A Conceptual Model Proposition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costello, Pat; Moreton, Rob

    A conceptual model for Information Communication Technology (ICT) adoption by Small Medium Enterprises (SMEs) is proposed. The research uses several ICT adoption models as its basis with theoretical underpinning provided by the Diffusion of Innovation theory and the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM). Taking an exploratory research approach the model was investigated amongst 200 SMEs whose core business is ICT. Evidence from this study demonstrates that these SMEs face the same issues as all other industry sectors. This work points out weaknesses in SMEs environments regarding ICT adoption and suggests what they may need to do to increase the success rate of any proposed adoption. The methodology for development of the framework is described and recommendations made for improved Government-led ICT adoption initiatives. Application of the general methodology has resulted in new opportunities to embed the ethos and culture surrounding the issues into the framework of new projects developed as a result of Government intervention. A conceptual model is proposed that may lead to a deeper understanding of the issues under consideration.

  7. Current issues in the analysis of consumer food choice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grunert, Klaus G.

    2001-01-01

    The Total Food Quality Model is used as a framework for highlighting a number of issues of current concern in understanding consumer food choice, and where promising avenues for research are seen. Consumer food choice is seen as a process where consumers form expectations about product quality...... before or during purchase, and then have a quality experience after the purchase. However, an increasing role of credence characteristics in food choice assigns communication a stronger role in understanding food choice, and consumer concern for food production technologies gives prior attitudes...

  8. Current issues in the analysis of consumer food choice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grunert, Klaus G.

    2001-01-01

    The Total Food Quality Model is used as a framework for highlighting a number of issues of current concern in understanding consumer food choice, and where promising avenues for research are seen. Consumer food choice is seen as a process where consumers form expectations about product quality be...... a stronger role. In addition, everyday routines in information processing and decision-making may change under situations of crisis.......The Total Food Quality Model is used as a framework for highlighting a number of issues of current concern in understanding consumer food choice, and where promising avenues for research are seen. Consumer food choice is seen as a process where consumers form expectations about product quality...... before or during purchase, and then have a quality experience after the purchase. However, an increasing role of credence characteristics in food choice assigns communication a stronger role in understanding food choice, and consumer concern for food production technologies gives prior attitudes...

  9. Testing a bioenergetics-based habitat choice model: bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus) responses to food availability and temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Using an automated shuttlebox system, we conducted patch choice experiments with 32, 8–12 g bluegill sunfish (Lepomis macrochirus) to test a behavioral energetics hypothesis of habitat choice. When patch temperature and food levels were held constant within patches but different between patches, we expected bluegill to choose patches that maximized growth based on the bioenergetic integration of food and temperature as predicted by a bioenergetics model. Alternative hypotheses were that bluegill may choose patches based only on food (optimal foraging) or temperature (behavioral thermoregulation). The behavioral energetics hypothesis was not a good predictor of short-term (from minutes to weeks) patch choice by bluegill; the behavioral thermoregulation hypothesis was the best predictor. In the short-term, food and temperature appeared to affect patch choice hierarchically; temperature was more important, although food can alter temperature preference during feeding periods. Over a 19-d experiment, mean temperatures occupied by fish offered low rations did decline as predicted by the behavioral energetics hypothesis, but the decline was less than 1.0 °C as opposed to a possible 5 °C decline. A short-term, bioenergetic response to food and temperature may be precluded by physiological costs of acclimation not considered explicitly in the behavioral energetics hypothesis.

  10. Research of Chinese Pesticide POPs Waste Disposal Technology Choice%中国杀虫剂类POPs废物处置技术选择

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈曦; 陈扬; 李樱; 陈刚

    2011-01-01

    持久性有机污染物(POPs)的巨大危害和淘汰、消减的必要性已经成为国际社会共识.为了控制危险物质(包括危险废物)不适当的处置、非法投弃和闲置的废弃场地所造成的环境污染,发达国家建立并逐渐完善相关法律体系,对POPs废物从发现到最终修复的全过程给予了明确的法律规范.重点研究中国杀虫剂类POPs废物处置技术选择要求、技术应用现状分析,最后形成杀虫剂类POPs废物处置技术短名单,为我国杀虫剂类POPs废物处置的技术选择提供依据.%The serious hazard of POPs and its need to be eliminated and cut down has become the international community's consensus. In order to control dangerous substance (including hazardous waste) which causing environmental pollution by inappropriate disposal, illegal jettisoning and idle waste site, the developed countries have established and perfected legal system gradually and given pollution site clear legal norm from discovery to final repairing. This paper focused on the research of Chinese pesticide POPs waste disposal technology choice requirements and technology application situation analysis, finally formed the pesticides POPs waste disposal technology short list and provided the basis for our country pesticides class POPs waste disposal technology choice.

  11. A Model of Technological Growth under Emission Constraints

    OpenAIRE

    Rovenskaya, E.

    2006-01-01

    We suggest and analyze a model of global technological growth under a prescribed constraint on the annual emission of greenhouse gases (GHG). The model assumes that industrial GHG emission is positively related to the world's production output driven by the development of the "production"technology stock. "Cleaning" technology is developed in parallel to keep the annual GHG emission within a "safety" zone. The ratio between annual investment in "cleaning" technology and annual investment in "...

  12. Dynamic Route Choice Modelling of the Effects of Travel Information using RP Data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Moraes Ramos, G.

    2015-01-01

    Traffic congestion is experienced by a great number of travellers during peak hours and is directly influenced by travel-related decisions, such as route choice decisions. In order to minimize problems that arise from congestion, such as delays, uncertainty and environmental effects, there has been

  13. Some probabilistic models of best, worst, and best-worst choices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marley, AAJ; Louviere, JJ

    2005-01-01

    Over the past decade or so, a choice design in which a person is asked to select both the best and the worst option in an available set of options has been gaining favor over more traditional designs, such as where the person is asked, for instance, to: select the best option; select the worst

  14. Modeling College Major Choices using Elicited Measures of Expectations and Counterfactuals. NBER Working Paper No. 15729

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arcidiacono, Peter; Hotz, V. Joseph; Kang, Songman

    2010-01-01

    The choice of a college major plays a critical role in determining the future earnings of college graduates. Students make their college major decisions in part due to the future earnings streams associated with the different majors. We survey students about what their expected earnings would be both in the major they have chosen and in…

  15. Attention to food and beverage advertisements as measured by eye-tracking technology and the food preferences and choices of youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velazquez, Cayley E; Pasch, Keryn E

    2014-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine how objective measures of attention to food/beverage advertising were associated with the unhealthy food/beverage preferences and choices of children and adolescents. A self-report survey and eye-tracking session were completed by 102 youth (mean age=11.6 years; 56.4% were white; 43.1% were female) between April and November 2010. Participants viewed 40 food/beverage advertisements on a computer and their eye movements were recorded. Objective attention measures included total viewing time, fixation length (time spent viewing characters/logos, unhealthy food/beverage items), and fixation count (number of times an individual stops to examine characters/logos, unhealthy food/beverage items). Food/beverage preferences and choices were measured by self-report. The preferences index summed responses to 12 questions measuring snack food and sugar-sweetened beverage preferences and the choices index summed responses to eight questions measuring consumption of snack foods and sugar-sweetened beverages. Regression models examined whether attention to food/beverage advertising was associated with food preferences and choices, controlling for sex, age, and body mass index z score. The length of time and number of times participants looked at unhealthy food and beverage items within advertisements were each significantly associated with unhealthy food/beverage preferences of youth (Ppurchase requests, given the important role of parents in the decision-making process surrounding food choice. Copyright © 2014 Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Model of Dynamic Pricing for Two Parallels Flights with Multiple Fare Classes Based on Passenger Choice Behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad Rusdiansyah

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Airline revenue management (ARM is one of emerging topics in transportation logistics areas. This paper discusses a problem in ARM which is dynamic pricing for two parallel flights owned by the same airline. We extended the existing model on Joint Pricing Model for Parallel Flights under passenger choice behavior in the literature. We generalized the model to consider multiple full-fare class instead of only single full-fare class. Consequently, we have to define the seat allocation for each fare class beforehand. We have combined the joint pricing model and the model of nested Expected Marginal Seat Revenue (EMSR model. To solve this hybrid model, we have developed a dynamic programming-based algorithm. We also have conducted numerical experiments to show the behavior of our model. Our experiment results have showed that the expected revenue of both flights significantly induced by the proportion of the time flexible passengers and the number of allocated seat in each full-fare class. As managerial insights, our model has proved that there is a closed relationship between demand management, which is represented by the price of each fare class, and total expected revenue considering the passenger choice behavior.

  17. Enhanced surrogate models for statistical design exploiting space mapping technology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koziel, Slawek; Bandler, John W.; Mohamed, Achmed S.;

    2005-01-01

    We present advances in microwave and RF device modeling exploiting Space Mapping (SM) technology. We propose new SM modeling formulations utilizing input mappings, output mappings, frequency scaling and quadratic approximations. Our aim is to enhance circuit models for statistical analysis...

  18. Technology Marketing using PCA , SOM, and STP Strategy Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunghae Jun

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Technology marketing is a total processing about identifying and meeting the technological needs of human society. Most technology results exist in intellectual properties like patents. In our research, we consider patent document as a technology. So patent data are analyzed by Principal Component Analysis (PCA and Self Organizing Map (SOM for STP(Segmentation, Targeting, and Positioning strategy modeling. STP is a popular approach for developing marketing strategies. We use STP strategy modeling for technology marketing. Also PCA and SOM are used to analyze patent data in STP modeling. To verify improved performance of our study, we make experiments using patent data from USPTO.

  19. Building information modeling based on intelligent parametric technology

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZENG Xudong; TAN Jie

    2007-01-01

    In order to push the information organization process of the building industry,promote sustainable architectural design and enhance the competitiveness of China's building industry,the author studies building information modeling (BIM) based on intelligent parametric modeling technology.Building information modeling is a new technology in the field of computer aided architectural design,which contains not only geometric data,but also the great amount of engineering data throughout the lifecycle of a building.The author also compares BIM technology with two-dimensional CAD technology,and demonstrates the advantages and characteristics of intelligent parametric modeling technology.Building information modeling,which is based on intelligent parametric modeling technology,will certainly replace traditional computer aided architectural design and become the new driving force to push forward China's building industry in this information age.

  20. Identification of smallholder farmers and pastoralists' preferences for sheep breeding traits: choice model approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duguma, G; Mirkena, T; Haile, A; Okeyo, A M; Tibbo, M; Rischkowsky, B; Sölkner, J; Wurzinger, M

    2011-12-01

    Identification of breeding objective traits pertinent to specific production environments with the involvement of target beneficiaries is crucial to the success of a breed improvement program. A choice experiment was conducted in four locations representing different production systems and agro-ecologies that are habitat to four indigenous sheep breeds (Afar, Bonga, Horro and Menz) of Ethiopia with the objective of identifying farmers'/pastoralists' preferences for sheep breeding traits. Following a synthesis of secondary information and diagnostic surveys, two communities per location consisting of 60 households each having at least four breeding ewes were identified. Producers' priority attributes used in the choice sets were identified through in-depth production system studies conducted from December 2007 to March 2008. On the basis of prior information, four to seven attributes were used to design choice sets with different profiles in order to capture results that mimic real life of the different communities. The attributes and levels chosen for the sheep profile were as follows: body size (large/small), coat color (brown/white/black), tail type (good/bad) for both rams and ewes; horn (polled/horned) and libido (active/poor) for rams; and lambing interval (three lambings in 2 years/two lambings in 2 years time), mothering ability (good mother/bad mother), twinning rate (twin bearer/single bearer) and milk yield (two cups per milking/one cup per milking) for ewes. A fractional factorial design was implemented to construct the alternatives included in the choice sets. The design resulted in a randomized selection of 48 sheep profiles (24 sets) for both sexes, which were grouped into four blocks with six choice sets each. An individual respondent was presented with one of the four blocks to make his/her choices. Results indicate that producers' trait preferences were heterogeneous except for body size in rams and mothering ability in ewes where nearly

  1. On the Origin-Destination Demands Linear Programming Model for Network Revenue Management with Customer Choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feng Liu

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we research the problem of network revenue management with customer choice based on the Origin-Destination (O-D demands. By dividing customers into different segments according to O-D pairs, we consider a network capacity control problem where each customer chooses the open product within the segment he belongs to. Starting with a Markov Decision Process (MDP formulation, we approximate the value function with an affine function of the state vector. The affine function approximation results in a new Linear Program (LP which yields tighter bounds than the Choice-based Deterministic Linear Program (CDLP. We give a column generation procedure for solving the LP within a desired optimality tolerance and present numerical results which show the policy perform from our solution approach can outperform that from the CDLP.

  2. MODELING PROBABILISTIC CONFLICT OF TECHNOLOGICAL SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. B. Desyatov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Recently for the study of conflict increasingly used method of mathematical optical modeling. Its importance stems from the fact that experimental research such conflicts rather time-consuming and complex. However, existing approaches to the study of conflict do not take into account the stochastic nature of the systems, suffers from conceptual incompleteness. There is a need to develop models, algorithms and principles, in order to assess the conflict, to choose conflict resolution to ensure that not the worst of conditions. For stochastic technological systems as a utility function, we consider the probability of achieving a given objective. We assume that some system S1 is in conflict with the system S2, (SR2R К SR1R, if q(SR1R,SR2R

  3. IFP technologies for flow assurance. Modeling, thermal insulation, deposit prevention, additives, testing facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2005-07-01

    Flow assurance has become one of the central topics covering the choice of a given field architecture and the specification of its production process. The relevant analysis includes the evaluation of risks and uncertainties associated with operational procedures, and contributes to a better estimate of the economics of a specific hydrocarbon production. This brochure presents an overview of innovative technologies, either available through IFP licensees or still under development by IFP and its industrial partners. The purpose of these technologies, related to Flow Assurance, is to secure the production operations, minimizing the down times, and reducing the production costs, particularly in the field of thermal insulation, deposit prevention and remediation. All these technologies benefit from the input of highly skilled teams from the Applied Mechanics, Applied Chemistry and Physical Chemistry Divisions of IFP, and rely on the design and use of sophisticated experimental laboratory and pilot equipment as well as advanced simulations and predictive modeling.

  4. Mathematical models, rational choice, and the search for Cold War culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erickson, Paul

    2010-06-01

    A key feature of the social, behavioral, and biological sciences after World War II has been the widespread adoption of new mathematical techniques drawn from cybernetics, information theory, and theories of rational choice. Historians of science have typically sought to explain this adoption either by reference to military patronage, or to a characteristic Cold War culture or discursive framework strongly shaped by the concerns of national security. This essay explores several episodes in the history of game theory--a mathematical theory of rational choice--that demonstrate the limits of such explanations. Military funding was indeed critical to game theory's early development in the 1940s. However, the theory's subsequent spread across disciplines ranging from political science to evolutionary biology was the result of a diverse collection of debates about the nature of "rationality" and "choice" that marked the Cold War era. These debates are not easily reduced to the national security imperatives that have been the focus of much historiography to date.

  5. Using a topological model in psychology: Developing sense and choice categories

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mammen, Jens

    2016-01-01

    A duality of sense categories and choice categories is introduced to map two distinct but co-operating ways in which we as humans are relating actively to the world. We are sensing similarities and differences in our world of objects and persons, but we are also as bodies moving around in this wo......A duality of sense categories and choice categories is introduced to map two distinct but co-operating ways in which we as humans are relating actively to the world. We are sensing similarities and differences in our world of objects and persons, but we are also as bodies moving around...... in this world encountering, selecting, and attaching to objects beyond our sensory interactions and in this way also relating to the individual objects’ history. This duality is necessary if we shall understand man as relating to the historical depth of our natural and cultural world, and to understand our...... the gap between psychology as part of Naturwissenschaft and of Geisteswissenschaft, and at the same time establish a common frame for understanding cognition and affection, and our practical and cultural life (Mammen and Mironenko 2015). The duality of sense and choice categories can be described formally...

  6. Social modeling of eating: a review of when and why social influence affects food intake and choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruwys, Tegan; Bevelander, Kirsten E; Hermans, Roel C J

    2015-03-01

    A major determinant of human eating behavior is social modeling, whereby people use others' eating as a guide for what and how much to eat. We review the experimental studies that have independently manipulated the eating behavior of a social referent (either through a live confederate or remotely) and measured either food choice or intake. Sixty-nine eligible experiments (with over 5800 participants) were identified that were published between 1974 and 2014. Speaking to the robustness of the modeling phenomenon, 64 of these studies have found a statistically significant modeling effect, despite substantial diversity in methodology, food type, social context and participant demographics. In reviewing the key findings from these studies, we conclude that there is limited evidence for a moderating effect of hunger, personality, age, weight or the presence of others (i.e., where the confederate is live vs. remote). There is inconclusive evidence for whether sex, attention, impulsivity and eating goals moderate modeling, and for whether modeling of food choice is as strong as modeling of food intake. Effects with substantial evidence were: modeling is increased when individuals desire to affiliate with the model, or perceive themselves to be similar to the model; modeling is attenuated (but still significant) for healthy-snack foods and meals such as breakfast and lunch, and modeling is at least partially mediated through behavioral mimicry, which occurs without conscious awareness. We discuss evidence suggesting that modeling is motivated by goals of both affiliation and uncertainty-reduction, and outline how these might be theoretically integrated. Finally, we argue for the importance of taking modeling beyond the laboratory and bringing it to bear on the important societal challenges of obesity and disordered eating. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Use of additive technologies for practical working with complex models for foundry technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olkhovik, E.; Butsanets, A. A.; Ageeva, A. A.

    2016-07-01

    The article presents the results of research of additive technology (3D printing) application for developing a geometrically complex model of castings parts. Investment casting is well known and widely used technology for the production of complex parts. The work proposes the use of a 3D printing technology for manufacturing models parts, which are removed by thermal destruction. Traditional methods of equipment production for investment casting involve the use of manual labor which has problems with dimensional accuracy, and CNC technology which is less used. Such scheme is low productive and demands considerable time. We have offered an alternative method which consists in printing the main knots using a 3D printer (PLA and ABS) with a subsequent production of castings models from them. In this article, the main technological methods are considered and their problems are discussed. The dimensional accuracy of models in comparison with investment casting technology is considered as the main aspect.

  8. Interpreting User's Choice of Technologies: A Quantitative Research on Choosing the Best Web-Based Communication Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adebiaye, Richmond

    2010-01-01

    The proliferation of web-based communication tools like email clients vis-a-vis Yahoo mail, Gmail, and Hotmail have led to new innovations in web-based communication. Email users benefit greatly from this technology, but lack of security of these tools can put users at risk of loss of privacy, including identity theft, corporate espionage, and…

  9. Factors Affecting Gender Equity in the Choice of Science and Technology Careers among Secondary School Students in Edo State, Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osagie, Roseline O.; Alutu, Azuka N.

    2016-01-01

    The study investigated the factors affecting gender equity in science and technology among senior secondary school students. The study was carried out at the University of Benin Demonstration Secondary School in Benin City, Edo State, Nigeria. One hundred and fifty students of average age 15 years in their penultimate year were administered the…

  10. An Analysis of Complex Multiple-Choice Science-Technology-Society Items: Methodological Development and Preliminary Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vazquez-Alonso, Angel; Manassero-Mas, Maria-Antonia; Acevedo-Diaz, Jose-Antonio

    2006-01-01

    The scarce attention to the assessment and evaluation in science education research has been especially harmful for teaching science-technology-society (STS) issues, due to the dialectical, tentative, value-laden, and polemic nature of most STS topics. This paper tackles the methodological difficulties of the instruments that monitor views related…

  11. The Effect of Data Structure and Model Choices on MFA Results: A Comparison of Phosphorus Balances for Denmark and Austria

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klinglmair, Manfred; Zoboli, Ottavia; Laner, David

    2016-01-01

    and definition of flows and processes. We quantify types and choice of data sources; analyse the consistency of the data used by looking at the extent of data reconciliation, as a measure of model quality; quantify the effect of different approaches to uncertainty assessment; and show the influence......; the uncertainty assessment in MFA is always subjective to a certain extent. We demonstrate that reconciliation of conflicting data provides a useful measure to assess data consistency and model quality: data are more consistent (5% average change in reconciled data) in the Austrian than in the Danish (9%) case...

  12. Technology, Demographic Characteristics and E-Learning Acceptance: A Conceptual Model Based on Extended Technology Acceptance Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarhini, Ali; Elyas, Tariq; Akour, Mohammad Ali; Al-Salti, Zahran

    2016-01-01

    The main aim of this paper is to develop an amalgamated conceptual model of technology acceptance that explains how individual, social, cultural and organizational factors affect the students' acceptance and usage behaviour of the Web-based learning systems. More specifically, the proposed model extends the Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) to…

  13. Bionic models for new sustainable energy technology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tributsch, H. [Hahn-Meitner Inst., Dept. Solare Energetik, Berlin (Germany)

    2004-07-01

    Within the boundary conditions of an abundant, but diluted solar energy supply nature has successfully evolved sophisticated regenerative energy technologies, which are not yet familiar to human engineering tradition. Since until the middle of this century a substantial contribution of renewable energy to global energy consumption is required in order to limit environmental deterioration, bionic technologies may contribute to the development of commercially affordable technical options. Four biological energy technologies have been selected as examples to discuss the challenges, both in scientific and technological terms, as well as the material research aspects involved: photovoltaics based on irreversible kinetics, tensile water technology, solar powered protonic energy circuits, fuel cell catalysis based on abundant transition metals. (orig.)

  14. Rural technology and agribusiness in Argentina. The rationale underpinning the dominant technological model

    OpenAIRE

    Daniel M. Caceres

    2015-01-01

    The paper analyses the main characteristics of the technological model fostered by agribusiness in Argentina, discusses its main problems and highlights the need to analyze it within a broader economic and political context. This technology is described as a technological fix and three main attributes are presented: instantaneity, transitoriness, and recurrence. The supposed efficiency of the productive model fostered by agribusiness occurs at the expense of natural capital depletion and at t...

  15. A systemic model for differentiating school technology integration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tel Amiel

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available School technology integration rarely begins with school or educator choice. It is part of a wider context where external and internal factors have direct influence on the goals and tools that are adopted over time. The objective of this study is to investigate the systemic conditions that contribute or inhibit the development of different activities by teachers making use of new media. We compiled a list of well-known conditions for technology integration success and mapped these in the historical and culturally bound perspective of activity theory (cultural historical activity theory. We conducted a multiple case study analysis of four schools, public and private. The results point to unique and distinctive scenarios even when homogeneity would be expected, reinforcing the argument that material conditions do not determine pedagogical outcomes nor do they determine changes in practice. Beyond this, the study proposes a methodology that can help elicit tensions in technology integration, pointing to avenues for school development.

  16. Choice experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas P Holmes; Wiktor L Adamawicz; Fredrik Carlsson

    2017-01-01

    There has been an explosion of interest during the past two decades in a class of nonmarket stated-preference valuation methods known as choice experiments. The overall objective of a choice experiment is to estimate economic values for characteristics (or attributes) of an environmental good that is the subject of policy analysis, where...

  17. Measuring Technology Acceptance Level of Turkish Pre-Service English Teachers by Using Technology Acceptance Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirmizi, Özkan

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study is to investigate technology acceptance of prospective English teachers by using Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) in Turkish context. The study is based on Structural Equation Model (SEM). The participants of the study from English Language Teaching Departments of Hacettepe, Gazi and Baskent Universities. The participants…

  18. Behavioral modeling of human choices reveals dissociable effects of physical effort and temporal delay on reward devaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein-Flügge, Miriam C; Kennerley, Steven W; Saraiva, Ana C; Penny, Will D; Bestmann, Sven

    2015-03-01

    There has been considerable interest from the fields of biology, economics, psychology, and ecology about how decision costs decrease the value of rewarding outcomes. For example, formal descriptions of how reward value changes with increasing temporal delays allow for quantifying individual decision preferences, as in animal species populating different habitats, or normal and clinical human populations. Strikingly, it remains largely unclear how humans evaluate rewards when these are tied to energetic costs, despite the surge of interest in the neural basis of effort-guided decision-making and the prevalence of disorders showing a diminished willingness to exert effort (e.g., depression). One common assumption is that effort discounts reward in a similar way to delay. Here we challenge this assumption by formally comparing competing hypotheses about effort and delay discounting. We used a design specifically optimized to compare discounting behavior for both effort and delay over a wide range of decision costs (Experiment 1). We then additionally characterized the profile of effort discounting free of model assumptions (Experiment 2). Contrary to previous reports, in both experiments effort costs devalued reward in a manner opposite to delay, with small devaluations for lower efforts, and progressively larger devaluations for higher effort-levels (concave shape). Bayesian model comparison confirmed that delay-choices were best predicted by a hyperbolic model, with the largest reward devaluations occurring at shorter delays. In contrast, an altogether different relationship was observed for effort-choices, which were best described by a model of inverse sigmoidal shape that is initially concave. Our results provide a novel characterization of human effort discounting behavior and its first dissociation from delay discounting. This enables accurate modelling of cost-benefit decisions, a prerequisite for the investigation of the neural underpinnings of effort

  19. Technology Marketing using PCA , SOM, and STP Strategy Modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Sunghae Jun

    2011-01-01

    Technology marketing is a total processing about identifying and meeting the technological needs of human society. Most technology results exist in intellectual properties like patents. In our research, we consider patent document as a technology. So patent data are analyzed by Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Self Organizing Map (SOM) for STP(Segmentation, Targeting, and Positioning) strategy modeling. STP is a popular approach for developing marketing strategies. We use STP strategy m...

  20. What factor generates greater uncertainty in predicting carbon flux for North America: climate characterization or model choice?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dungan, J.; Wang, W.; Micaelis, A.; Nemani, R.

    2008-12-01

    Numerous efforts have begun to characterize a variety of sources of uncertainty in carbon flux estimates from both forward-modeling and inverse modeling approaches. One source of uncertainty is structural, created by the variety of approaches taken to select and characterize the most important biogeochemical processes. To begin to explore this structural uncertainty, we have used an ensemble of well-known models including CASA (Potter et al. (1993), version 2003.04.29), LPJ (Sitch et al. (2003), version 3.1.1-0.9.02), and BGC (White et al. (2000), version 5.0) with a consistent set of inputs for the period 1982-2006 for North America. Initially, the ensemble was run using input climate data interpolated from maximum, minimum and dew-point temperatures, precipitation, vapor pressure deficit, and incident daily solar radiation at stations from the National Climate Data Center's Global Summary of the Day, incorporating on average about 1900 stations. NCDC's Cooperative Summary of the Day data, available over the United States only, yielded a combined data set of approximately 9000 stations that was then used for the ensemble runs. The combined data set resulted in a significantly wetter surface than with the sparser set, resulting in noticeably larger gross primary production (GPP) estimates by models in the ensemble. Mexico and Canada remain significantly undersampled. Uncertainty due to the choice of a relatively sparse or dense station network was smaller than the structural uncertainty due to model choice.

  1. The Strength of Ethical Matrixes as a Tool for Normative Analysis Related to Technological Choices: The Case of Geological Disposal for Radioactive Waste.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kermisch, Céline; Depaus, Christophe

    2017-03-09

    The ethical matrix is a participatory tool designed to structure ethical reflection about the design, the introduction, the development or the use of technologies. Its collective implementation, in the context of participatory decision-making, has shown its potential usefulness. On the contrary, its implementation by a single researcher has not been thoroughly analyzed. The aim of this paper is precisely to assess the strength of ethical matrixes implemented by a single researcher as a tool for conceptual normative analysis related to technological choices. Therefore, the ethical matrix framework is applied to the management of high-level radioactive waste, more specifically to retrievable and non-retrievable geological disposal. The results of this analysis show that the usefulness of ethical matrixes is twofold and that they provide a valuable input for further decision-making. Indeed, by using ethical matrixes, implicit ethically relevant issues were revealed-namely issues of equity associated with health impacts and differences between close and remote future generations regarding ethical impacts. Moreover, the ethical matrix framework was helpful in synthesizing and comparing systematically the ethical impacts of the technologies under scrutiny, and hence in highlighting the potential ethical conflicts.

  2. Reproductive fitness and dietary choice behavior of the genetic model organism Caenorhabditis elegans under semi-natural conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freyth, Katharina; Janowitz, Tim; Nunes, Frank; Voss, Melanie; Heinick, Alexander; Bertaux, Joanne; Scheu, Stefan; Paul, Rüdiger J

    2010-10-01

    Laboratory breeding conditions of the model organism C. elegans do not correspond with the conditions in its natural soil habitat. To assess the consequences of the differences in environmental conditions, the effects of air composition, medium and bacterial food on reproductive fitness and/or dietary-choice behavior of C. elegans were investigated. The reproductive fitness of C. elegans was maximal under oxygen deficiency and not influenced by a high fractional share of carbon dioxide. In media approximating natural soil structure, reproductive fitness was much lower than in standard laboratory media. In seminatural media, the reproductive fitness of C. elegans was low with the standard laboratory food bacterium E. coli (γ-Proteobacteria), but significantly higher with C. arvensicola (Bacteroidetes) and B. tropica (β-Proteobacteria) as food. Dietary-choice experiments in semi-natural media revealed a low preference of C. elegans for E. coli but significantly higher preferences for C. arvensicola and B. tropica (among other bacteria). Dietary-choice experiments under quasi-natural conditions, which were feasible by fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) of bacteria, showed a high preference of C. elegans for Cytophaga-Flexibacter-Bacteroides, Firmicutes, and β-Proteobacteria, but a low preference for γ-Proteobacteria. The results show that data on C. elegans under standard laboratory conditions have to be carefully interpreted with respect to their biological significance.

  3. Processing of recognition information and additional cues: A model-based analysis of choice, confidence, and response time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Glockner

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Research on the processing of recognition information has focused on testing the recognition heuristic (RH. On the aggregate, the noncompensatory use of recognition information postulated by the RH was rejected in several studies, while RH could still account for a considerable proportion of choices. These results can be explained if either a a part of the subjects used RH or b nobody used it but its choice predictions were accidentally in line with predictions of the strategy used. In the current study, which exemplifies a new approach to model testing, we determined individuals' decision strategies based on a maximum-likelihood classification method, taking into account choices, response times and confidence ratings simultaneously. Unlike most previous studies of the RH, our study tested the RH under conditions in which we provided information about cue values of unrecognized objects (which we argue is fairly common and thus of some interest. For 77.5% of the subjects, overall behavior was best explained by a compensatory parallel constraint satisfaction (PCS strategy. The proportion of subjects using an enhanced RH heuristic (RHe was negligible (up to 7.5%; 15% of the subjects seemed to use a take the best strategy (TTB. A more-fine grained analysis of the supplemental behavioral parameters conditional on strategy use supports PCS but calls into question process assumptions for apparent users of RH, RHe, and TTB within our experimental context. Our results are consistent with previous literature highlighting the importance of individual strategy classification as compared to aggregated analyses.

  4. Modelling discrete choice variables in assessment of teaching staff work satisfaction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mieilă, Mihai; Popescu, Constanţa; Tudorache, Ana-Maria; Toplicianu, Valerică

    2015-01-01

    Levels of self-reported job satisfaction and motivation were measured by survey in a sample of 286 teachers. Using the discrete choice framework, the paper tries to assess the relevance of the considered indicators (demographic, social, motivational) in overall teaching work satisfaction. The findings provide evidence that job satisfaction is correlated significantly with level of university degree held by the teacher, type of secondary school where the teacher is enrolled, revenues, and salary-tasks adequacy. This is important for the Romanian economy, since the education system is expected to provide future human resources with enhanced skills and abilities.

  5. A simplified differential game model for the optimal choice of tax rate

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Rong; TONG Yu-yuan; XU Jun-ying

    2004-01-01

    A classical problem on optimal choice of tax rate from the perspective of differential game approach is studied. Under some appropriate assumptions on the profit and utility functions, the open-loop Stackelberg equilibrium solution which is timedependent is obtained. Result shows that 1) the optimal strategies derived from differential game and traditional unilateral optimal control approaches are different; 2) both marginal profit rate and the market rate of interest have great effect on the equilibrium solution; and 3) the government should think about the firm's potential reaction when selecting tax rates and the timing of taxation.

  6. "Soft Technology" and Criticism of the Western Model of Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harper, Peter

    1973-01-01

    Alternatives to the capitalistic Western model of develoment are suggested. Three problems afflicting Western society--alienation, resource exploitation, and eviornmental stability--are discussed and a model which advocates both political and technological change is proposed. (SM)

  7. Modeling and simulation technology readiness levels.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clay, Robert L.; Shneider, Max S.; Marburger, S. J.; Trucano, Timothy Guy

    2006-01-01

    This report summarizes the results of an effort to establish a framework for assigning and communicating technology readiness levels (TRLs) for the modeling and simulation (ModSim) capabilities at Sandia National Laboratories. This effort was undertaken as a special assignment for the Weapon Simulation and Computing (WSC) program office led by Art Hale, and lasted from January to September 2006. This report summarizes the results, conclusions, and recommendations, and is intended to help guide the program office in their decisions about the future direction of this work. The work was broken out into several distinct phases, starting with establishing the scope and definition of the assignment. These are characterized in a set of key assertions provided in the body of this report. Fundamentally, the assignment involved establishing an intellectual framework for TRL assignments to Sandia's modeling and simulation capabilities, including the development and testing of a process to conduct the assignments. To that end, we proposed a methodology for both assigning and understanding the TRLs, and outlined some of the restrictions that need to be placed on this process and the expected use of the result. One of the first assumptions we overturned was the notion of a ''static'' TRL--rather we concluded that problem context was essential in any TRL assignment, and that leads to dynamic results (i.e., a ModSim tool's readiness level depends on how it is used, and by whom). While we leveraged the classic TRL results from NASA, DoD, and Sandia's NW program, we came up with a substantially revised version of the TRL definitions, maintaining consistency with the classic level definitions and the Predictive Capability Maturity Model (PCMM) approach. In fact, we substantially leveraged the foundation the PCMM team provided, and augmented that as needed. Given the modeling and simulation TRL definitions and our proposed assignment methodology, we

  8. Multivariate probabilistic projections using imperfect climate models. Part II: robustness of methodological choices and consequences for climate sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sexton, David M. H.; Murphy, James M.

    2012-06-01

    A method for providing probabilistic climate projections, which applies a Bayesian framework to information from a perturbed physics ensemble, a multimodel ensemble and observations, was demonstrated in an accompanying paper. This information allows us to account for the combined effects of more sources of uncertainty than in any previous study of the equilibrium response to doubled CO2 concentrations, namely parametric and structural modelling uncertainty, internal variability, and observational uncertainty. Such probabilistic projections are dependent on the climate models and observations used but also contain an element of expert judgement. Two expert choices in the methodology involve the amount of information used to (a) specify the effects of structural modelling uncertainty and (b) represent the observational metrics that constrain the probabilistic climate projections. These choices, effected by selecting how many multivariate eigenvectors of a large set of climate variables to retain in our analysis, are investigated in more detail. We also show sensitivity tests that explore a range of key expert choices. For changes in annual global mean temperature and regional changes over England and Wales and Northern Europe, the variations in the projections across the sensitivity studies are small compared to the overall uncertainty, demonstrating that the projections are robust to reasonable variations in key assumptions. We are therefore confident that, despite sampling sources of uncertainty more comprehensively than previously, the improved multivariate treatment of observational metrics has narrowed the probability distribution of climate sensitivity consistent with evidence currently available. Our 5th, 50th, and 95th percentiles are in the range 2.2-2.4, 3.2-3.3, and 4.1-4.5K, respectively. The main caveat is that the handling of structural uncertainty does not account for systematic errors common to the current set of climate models and finding methods to

  9. The effects of a technology-enhanced, flexible choice science program on achievement, self-efficacy and the scale learner progression mechanism in science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grace, Lori

    A mixed methods comparative case study of two DRG I urban high schools was used to determine the effectiveness of the Flexible Choice Science Program (FCSP) at producing equitable learning outcomes in students. FCSP recognized both 'among and within learner' differences, while allowing the teacher the semblance of a single lesson. Program sequencing, a differentiated technology platform and allowances for student control and creativity, allowed learners to progress from novice to master at their own pace. Results showed that holistic participation in FCSP by School A students led to significant positive learning effects, particularly for low ability learners. Results of this study challenge current educational grouping techniques that have resulted in inequity, by demonstrating that when students group themselves, their success increases by more than 100%. Results of this research also challenge common notion that cognition most defines student potential by demonstrating that student affect most influences learning.

  10. The suitability of large area drift chambers as the technology choice for the Cosmic Ray Inspection and Passive Tomography (CRIPT) project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anghel, V. [Atomic Energy Canada Ltd., Chalk River, ON K0J 1J0 (Canada); Armitage, J. [Carleton Univ., Ottawa, ON (Canada); Botte, J.; Boudjemline, K. [Carleton Univ., Ottawa, ON (Canada); Bryman, D.; Bueno, J. [Advanced Applied Physics Solutions, Vancouver, BC (Canada); Charles, E. [Canadian Border Services Agency, Ottawa, ON K1A 0L8 (Canada); Cousins, T. [International Safety Research, Ottawa, ON K2E 7J6 (Canada); Erlandson, A. [Carleton Univ., Ottawa, ON (Canada); Gallant, G. [Canadian Border Services Agency, Ottawa, ON K1A 0L8 (Canada); Jewett, C.; Jonkmans, G. [Atomic Energy Canada Ltd., Chalk River, ON K0J 1J0 (Canada); Liu, Z. [Advanced Applied Physics Solutions, Vancouver, BC (Canada); Noel, S. [International Safety Research, Ottawa, ON K2E 7J6 (Canada); Oakham, F. G. [Carleton Univ., Ottawa, ON (Canada); Stocki, T. J. [Health Canada, Ottawa, ON K1A 0K9 (Canada); Thompson, M. [Atomic Energy Canada Ltd., Chalk River, ON K0J 1J0 (Canada); Waller, D. [Defence Research Development Canada, Ottawa, ON K1A 0Z4 (Canada)

    2011-07-01

    The CRIPT project brings together several Canadian institutions, concerned with the detection of Special Nuclear Materials (SNM), addressing a requirement at ports-of-entry for detection of SNM in the many thousands of containers that flow into and out of Canada every day, while at the same time providing a way of monitoring the contents of nuclear waste storage containers, for waste management and non-proliferation reasons. The scale of these applications is large - typically tens of cubic metres, requiring detectors that can cover a large area at a minimum cost. The CRIPT project considered drift chambers adapted from high energy physics experience, as one of its technology choices. We report here on the performance of a full scale prototype, which covers an area of 2.4 m x 1.2 m with only 6 readout channels, and provides a 2D data point with accuracies (in x and z) of around 2 mm. (authors)

  11. ABOUT COMPLEX APPROACH TO MODELLING OF TECHNOLOGICAL MACHINES FUNCTIONING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. A. Honcharov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Problems arise in the process of designing, production and investigation of a complicated technological machine. These problems concern not only properties of some types of equipment but they have respect to regularities of control object functioning as a whole. A technological machine is thought of as such technological complex where it is possible to lay emphasis on a control system (or controlling device and a controlled object. The paper analyzes a number of existing approaches to construction of models for controlling devices and their functioning. A complex model for a technological machine operation has been proposed in the paper; in other words it means functioning of a controlling device and a controlled object of the technological machine. In this case models of the controlling device and the controlled object of the technological machine can be represented as aggregate combination (elements of these models. The paper describes a conception on realization of a complex model for a technological machine as a model for interaction of units (elements in the controlling device and the controlled object. When a control activation is given to the controlling device of the technological machine its modelling is executed at an algorithmic or logic level and the obtained output signals are interpreted as events and information about them is transferred to executive mechanisms.The proposed scheme of aggregate integration considers element models as object classes and the integration scheme is presented as a combination of object property values (combination of a great many input and output contacts and combination of object interactions (in the form of an integration operator. Spawn of parent object descendants of the technological machine model and creation of their copies in various project parts is one of the most important means of the distributed technological machine modelling that makes it possible to develop complicated models of

  12. A model technology transfer program for independent operators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoeling, L.G.

    1996-08-01

    In August 1992, the Energy Research Center (ERC) at the University of Kansas was awarded a contract by the US Department of Energy (DOE) to develop a technology transfer regional model. This report describes the development and testing of the Kansas Technology Transfer Model (KTTM) which is to be utilized as a regional model for the development of other technology transfer programs for independent operators throughout oil-producing regions in the US. It describes the linkage of the regional model with a proposed national technology transfer plan, an evaluation technique for improving and assessing the model, and the methodology which makes it adaptable on a regional basis. The report also describes management concepts helpful in managing a technology transfer program.

  13. Modeling and optimization of the lifetime of technologies

    CERN Document Server

    Hritonenko, Natali

    1996-01-01

    Modern economic growth is characterized by structural changes based on the introduction of new technologies into economics. The replacement and renova­ tion of technologies in industrial environments undergoing technical change is clearly one of the key aspects of economic development. The mathematical modeling of evolutionary economics under technical change (TC) has been rigorously considered by many authors during last decades. There is a wide variety of economic approaches and models describing different aspects of technical change. Among these are the models of embodied technical progress [19], [35], [70], [129], endogenous growth models [94], [102], the models of technological innovations [31], [32], [41], and others. The perspective self­ organization evolutionary approach is developed in [20], [38], [122], [123], [124], [126], which unites the aspects of diffusion of new technologies, technological and behavioral diversity of firms, learning mechanisms, age-dependent effects, and other important fea...

  14. Some Foundations for Empirical Study in the Euclidean Spatial Model of Social Choice

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-08-01

    Barrault 75634 PARIS C~dex 27. S. Barbera................................................................................ Dept. d’Economica I Historia ...1 ISYE Georgia Institute of Technology Atlanta, GA 30332 43 . R o b e rt Fo ley

  15. Integrated modelling in materials and process technology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hattel, Jesper Henri

    2008-01-01

    Integrated modelling of entire process sequences and the subsequent in-service conditions, and multiphysics modelling of the single process steps are areas that increasingly support optimisation of manufactured parts. In the present paper, three different examples of modelling manufacturing...... processes from the viewpoint of combined materials and process modelling are presented: solidification of thin walled ductile cast iron, integrated modelling of spray forming and multiphysics modelling of friction stir welding. The fourth example describes integrated modelling applied to a failure analysis...

  16. The axiom of choice

    CERN Document Server

    Jech, Thomas J

    2008-01-01

    Comprehensive in its selection of topics and results, this self-contained text examines the relative strengths and consequences of the axiom of choice. Each chapter contains several problems, graded according to difficulty, and concludes with some historical remarks.An introduction to the use of the axiom of choice is followed by explorations of consistency, permutation models, and independence. Subsequent chapters examine embedding theorems, models with finite supports, weaker versions of the axiom, and nontransferable statements. The final sections consider mathematics without choice, cardin

  17. A comparative study of drift diffusion and linear ballistic accumulator models in a reward maximization perceptual choice task

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephanie eGoldfarb

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available We present new findings that distinguish drift diffusion models (DDMsfrom the linear ballistic accumulator (LBA model as descriptions ofhuman behavior in a two-alternative forced-choice reward maximization(Rmax task. Previous comparisons have not considered Rmax tasks, anddifferences identified between the models' predictions have centeredon practice effects. Unlike the parameter-free optimal performancecurves of the pure DDM, the extended DDM and LBA predict families ofcurves depending on their additional parameters, and those of the LBAshow significant differences from the DDMs, especially for poorlydiscriminable stimuli that incur high error rates. Moreover, fits tobehavior reveal that the LBA and DDM provide different interpretationsof behavior as stimulus discriminability increases. Trends forthreshold setting (caution in the DDMs are consistent between fits,while in the corresponding LBA fits, thresholds interact withdistributions of starting points in a complex manner that depends uponparameter constraints. Our results suggest that reinterpretation ofLBA parameters may be necessary in modeling the Rmax paradigm.

  18. Validation of the IHE Cohort Model of Type 2 Diabetes and the impact of choice of macrovascular risk equations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Lundqvist

    Full Text Available Health-economic models of diabetes are complex since the disease is chronic, progressive and there are many diabetic complications. External validation of these models helps building trust and satisfies demands from decision makers. We evaluated the external validity of the IHE Cohort Model of Type 2 Diabetes; the impact of using alternative macrovascular risk equations; and compared the results to those from microsimulation models.The external validity of the model was analysed from 12 clinical trials and observational studies by comparing 167 predicted microvascular, macrovascular and mortality outcomes to the observed study outcomes. Concordance was examined using visual inspection of scatterplots and regression-based analysis, where an intercept of 0 and a slope of 1 indicate perfect concordance. Additional subgroup analyses were conducted on 'dependent' vs. 'independent' endpoints and microvascular vs. macrovascular vs. mortality endpoints.Visual inspection indicates that the model predicts outcomes well. The UKPDS-OM1 equations showed almost perfect concordance with observed values (slope 0.996, whereas Swedish NDR (0.952 and UKPDS-OM2 (0.899 had a slight tendency to underestimate. The R2 values were uniformly high (>0.96. There were no major differences between 'dependent' and 'independent' outcomes, nor for microvascular and mortality outcomes. Macrovascular outcomes tended to be underestimated, most so for UKPDS-OM2 and least so for NDR risk equations.External validation indicates that the IHE Cohort Model of Type 2 Diabetes has predictive accuracy in line with microsimulation models, indicating that the trade-off in accuracy using cohort simulation might not be that large. While the choice of risk equations was seen to matter, each were associated with generally reasonable results, indicating that the choice must reflect the specifics of the application. The largest variation was observed for macrovascular outcomes. There, NDR

  19. Tough and easy choices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Søren Bøye; Lundhede, Thomas; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl

    2011-01-01

    Respondents in Stated Preference studies may be uncertain about their preferences for the good presented to them. Inspired by Wang (J Environ Econ Manag 32:219–232, 1997) we hypothesize that respondents’ stated certainty in choice increases with the utility difference between the alternative chosen...... and the best alternative to that. We test this hypothesis using data from two independent Choice Experiments both focusing on nature values. In modelling respondents’ self-reported certainty in choice, we find evidence that the stated level of certainty increases significantly as utility difference in choice...... sets increases. In addition, stated certainty increases with income. Furthermore, there is some evidence that male respondents are inherently more certain in their choices than females, and a learning effect may increase stated certainty. We find evidence of this in the first study where the good...

  20. Tough and easy choices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Søren Bøye; Lundhede, Thomas; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl

    2011-01-01

    Respondents in Stated Preference studies may be uncertain about their preferences for the good presented to them. Inspired by Wang (J Environ Econ Manag 32:219–232, 1997) we hypothesize that respondents’ stated certainty in choice increases with the utility difference between the alternative chosen...... and the best alternative to that. We test this hypothesis using data from two independent Choice Experiments both focusing on nature values. In modelling respondents’ self-reported certainty in choice, we find evidence that the stated level of certainty increases significantly as utility difference in choice...... sets increases. In addition, stated certainty increases with income. Furthermore, there is some evidence that male respondents are inherently more certain in their choices than females, and a learning effect may increase stated certainty. We find evidence of this in the first study where the good...

  1. Using simulation models to investigate the cumulative effects of sowing rate, sowing date and cultivar choice on weed competition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew, Izzadora K S; Storkey, Jonathan

    2017-05-01

    With the increasing pressure on crop production from the evolution of herbicide resistance, farmers are increasingly adopting Integrated Weed Management (IWM) strategies to augment their weed control. These include measures to increase the competitiveness of the crop canopy such as increased sowing rate and the use of more competitive cultivars. While there are data on the relative impact of these non-chemical weed control methods assessed in isolation, there is uncertainty about their combined contribution, which may be hindering their adoption. In this article, the INTERCOM simulation model of crop/weed competition was used to examine the combined impact of crop density, sowing date and cultivar choice on the outcomes of competition between wheat (Triticum aestivum) and Alopecurus myosuroides. Alopecurus myosuroides is a problematic weed of cereal crops in North-Western Europe and the primary target for IWM in the UK because it has evolved resistance to a range of herbicides. The model was parameterised for two cultivars with contrasting competitive ability, and simulations run across 10 years at different crop densities and two sowing dates. The results suggest that sowing date, sowing density and cultivar choice largely work in a complementary fashion, allowing enhanced competitive ability against weeds when used in combination. However, the relative benefit of choosing a more competitive cultivar decreases at later sowing dates and higher crop densities. Modeling approaches could be further employed to examine the effectiveness of IWM, reducing the need for more expensive and cumbersome long-term in situ experimentation.

  2. Development of the choices and acquisition of antibiotics model from a descriptive study of a lay Honduran population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crigger, Nancy J; Holcomb, Lygia; Grogan, Reina Lidylia; Vasquez, Myrna; Parchment, Chrystabel; Almendares, Juan; Lagos, Daniel

    2004-09-01

    Antibiotic resistance is a global public health problem that is accelerated by overuse and misuse of antibiotics. In today's world of increasing international travel and exchange of goods, the spread of antibiotic resistant organisms is a growing threat. Despite significant antibiotic use in developing nations, research to describe and curtail inappropriate use is limited. In this study, the investigators developed a model of antibiotic use, choices and acquisition of antibiotics model, from a study of a lay population in Honduras. A representative sample of 939 rural and urban Hondurans completed the Preguntas Para El Uso de Antibiotics questionnaire to determine how the participant made choices about antibiotic use. The study indicated that the rural participants used significantly fewer antibiotics than the urban participants and that the demographic indicators did not show a significant difference in antibiotic use in those of lower socioeconomic status. In addition, the participants reported that they seek out professional advice and care rather than self-prescribing. Implications for educational and empowerment programs based on the model are discussed.

  3. Propulsion System Choices and Their Implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joyner, Claude R., II; Levack, Daniel J. H.; Rhodes, Russell, E.; Robinson, John W.

    2010-01-01

    In defining a space vehicle architecture, the propulsion system and related subsystem choices will have a major influence on achieving the goals and objectives desired. There are many alternatives and the choices made must produce a system that meets the performance requirements, but at the same time also provide the greatest opportunity of reaching all of the required objectives. Recognizing the above, the SPST Functional Requirements subteam has drawn on the knowledge, expertise, and experience of its members, to develop insight that wiIJ effectively aid the architectural concept developer in making the appropriate choices consistent with the architecture goals. This data not only identifies many selected choices, but also, more importantly, presents the collective assessment of this subteam on the "pros" and the "cons" of these choices. The propulsion system choices with their pros and cons are presented in five major groups. A. System Integration Approach. Focused on the requirement for safety, reliability, dependability, maintainability, and low cost. B. Non-Chemical Propulsion. Focused on choice of propulsion type. C. Chemical Propulsion. Focused on propellant choice implications. D. Functional Integration. Focused on the degree of integration of the many propulsive and closely associated functions, and on the choice of the engine combustion power cycle. E. Thermal Management. Focused on propellant tank insulation and integration. Each of these groups is further broken down into subgroups, and at that level the consensus pros and cons are presented. The intended use of this paper is to provide a resource of focused material for architectural concept developers to use in designing new advanced systems including college design classes. It is also a possible source of input material for developing a model for designing and analyzing advanced concepts to help identify focused technology needs and their priorities.

  4. How do dynamic capabilities transform external technologies into firms’ renewed technological resources? – A mediation model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li-Ying, Jason; Wang, Yuandi; Ning, Lutao

    2016-01-01

    microfoundations of dynamic technological capabilities, mediate the relationship between external technology breadth and firms’ technological innovation performance, based on the resource-based view and dynamic capability view. Using a sample of listed Chinese licensee firms, we find that firms must broadly......How externally acquired resources may become valuable, rare, hard-to-imitate, and non-substitute resource bundles through the development of dynamic capabilities? This study proposes and tests a mediation model of how firms’ internal technological diversification and R&D, as two distinctive...... explore external technologies to ignite the dynamism in internal technological diversity and in-house R&D, which play their crucial roles differently to transform and reconfigure firms’ technological resources....

  5. How do dynamic capabilities transform external technologies into firms’ renewed technological resources? – A mediation model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li-Ying, Jason; Wang, Yuandi; Ning, Lutao

    2016-01-01

    How externally acquired resources may become valuable, rare, hard-to-imitate, and non-substitute resource bundles through the development of dynamic capabilities? This study proposes and tests a mediation model of how firms’ internal technological diversification and R&D, as two distinctive...... microfoundations of dynamic technological capabilities, mediate the relationship between external technology breadth and firms’ technological innovation performance, based on the resource-based view and dynamic capability view. Using a sample of listed Chinese licensee firms, we find that firms must broadly...... explore external technologies to ignite the dynamism in internal technological diversity and in-house R&D, which play their crucial roles differently to transform and reconfigure firms’ technological resources....

  6. A dynamic model of education level choice: application to Brazilian states

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wilfredo L. Maldonado

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Using the education level/wage distribution curve of the Brazilian States we define a dynamic programming problem to determine the optimal choice of education level of the parents in their descendants favor. As a proxy for the opportunity cost of education we use the public expenditure in education. The results show that low level educated workers will use public schools to provide education to their offspring. For high educated workers (which receive higher wages we find the existence of several steady states, some of them stable and others unstable. The findings point out the concentration of education in some specific levels and the existence of a poverty trap, where low educated workers chose low level of education for their descendants perpetuating low wages for the familiar unit. The performed exercise may be used as subside to the definition of public educational policies.

  7. Modeling the anti-cyberbullying preferences of university students: Adaptive choice-based conjoint analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Charles E; Chen, Yvonne; Vaillancourt, Tracy; Rimas, Heather; Deal, Ken; Cunningham, Lesley J; Ratcliffe, Jenna

    2015-01-01

    Adaptive choice-based conjoint analysis was used to study the anti-cyberbullying program preferences of 1,004 university students. More than 60% reported involvement in cyberbullying as witnesses (45.7%), victims (5.7%), perpetrator-victims (4.9%), or perpetrators (4.5%). Men were more likely to report involvement as perpetrators and perpetrator-victims than were women. Students recommended advertisements featuring famous people who emphasized the impact of cyberbullying on victims. They preferred a comprehensive approach teaching skills to prevent cyberbullying, encouraging students to report incidents, enabling anonymous online reporting, and terminating the internet privileges of students involved as perpetrators. Those who cyberbully were least likely, and victims of cyberbullying were most likely, to support an approach combining prevention and consequences. Simulations introducing mandatory reporting, suspensions, or police charges predicted a substantial reduction in the support of uninvolved students, witnesses, victims, and perpetrators. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  8. Development of the Model of Decision Support for Alternative Choice in the Transportation Transit System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kabashkin Igor

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The decision support system is one of the instruments for choosing the most effective decision for cargo owner in constant fluctuated business environment. The objective of this Paper is to suggest the multiple-criteria approach for evaluation and choice the alternatives of cargo transportation in the large scale transportation transit system for the decision makers - cargo owners. The large scale transportation transit system is presented by directed finite graph. Each of 57 alternatives is represented by the set of key performance indicators Kvi and set of parameters Paj. There has been developed a two-level hierarchy system of criteria with ranging expert evaluations based on Analytic Hierarchy Process Method. The best alternatives were suggested according to this method.

  9. The Application of Discrete Choice Model in Smart Community%离散选择模型在智慧社区中的应用

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    姚薇

    2016-01-01

    Along with the development of the information science foundation, the smart city has become a trend of exploration in China's cities. As an important part of the smart city, the exploration and construction of the smart community has become a kind of inevitable. The big data technologies play a role in promoting the develop of smart community, make intelligence and informatization of community management and service possible. In this paper, the application of discrete choice model technology in the community wisdom tourism package product is a case study, it describes the application of big data technology in the intelligence community, effectively proves the feasibility of the application of big data technology.%随着信息科学基础的大力发展,“智慧城市”已成为我国各个城市探索与发展的趋势,作为“智慧城市”重要内容的“智慧社区”探索与建设也成为一种必然。大数据挖掘技术为智慧社区的实现提供了关键性技术支撑,让社区管理与服务智能化、信息化成为了可能。本文通过离散选择模型技术在社区智慧旅游套餐产品的应用为案例,详细阐述了大数据技术在智慧社区中的实际应用,有效证实了大数据技术应用的可行性。

  10. Understanding the impact of technology on firms’ business models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cavalcante, Sergio Andre

    2013-01-01

    of a new business model for the partner companies in the consortium. Practical implications – This paper is important in that it will help companies understand technological impact from a business model perspective, thereby enabling them to manage innovation better by distinguishing between the creation......Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to identify the impact of a new global positioning technology on firms’ business models. Design/methodology/approach – The empirical setting was a consortium of Danish organizations, established to develop a positioning-based technology platform as a basis...... for innovative commercial products and/or services. Three of the consortium companies were selected for case-study research. Findings – The main findings were that companies will use the new technology to extend their existing business models, and that the technology platform potentially represents the creation...

  11. Using a Topological Model in Psychology: Developing Sense and Choice Categories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mammen, Jens

    2016-06-01

    A duality of sense categories and choice categories is introduced to map two distinct but co-operating ways in which we as humans are relating actively to the world. We are sensing similarities and differences in our world of objects and persons, but we are also as bodies moving around in this world encountering, selecting, and attaching to objects beyond our sensory interactions and in this way also relating to the individual objects' history. This duality is necessary if we shall understand man as relating to the historical depth of our natural and cultural world, and to understand our cognitions and affections. Our personal affections and attachments, as well as our shared cultural values are centered around objects and persons chosen as reference points and landmarks in our lives, uniting and separating, not to be understood only in terms of sensory selections. The ambition is to bridge the gap between psychology as part of Naturwissenschaft and of Geisteswissenschaft, and at the same time establish a common frame for understanding cognition and affection, and our practical and cultural life (Mammen and Mironenko 2015). The duality of sense and choice categories can be described formally using concepts from modern mathematics, primarily topology, surmounting the reductions rooted in the mechanistic concepts from Renaissance science and mathematics. The formal description is based on 11 short and simple axioms held in ordinary language and visualized with instructive figures. The axioms are bridging psychology and mathematics and not only enriching psychology but also opening for a new interpretation of parts of the foundation of mathematics and logic.

  12. Cost and Performance Assumptions for Modeling Electricity Generation Technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tidball, Rick [ICF International, Fairfax, VA (United States); Bluestein, Joel [ICF International, Fairfax, VA (United States); Rodriguez, Nick [ICF International, Fairfax, VA (United States); Knoke, Stu [ICF International, Fairfax, VA (United States)

    2010-11-01

    The goal of this project was to compare and contrast utility scale power plant characteristics used in data sets that support energy market models. Characteristics include both technology cost and technology performance projections to the year 2050. Cost parameters include installed capital costs and operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Performance parameters include plant size, heat rate, capacity factor or availability factor, and plant lifetime. Conventional, renewable, and emerging electricity generating technologies were considered. Six data sets, each associated with a different model, were selected. Two of the data sets represent modeled results, not direct model inputs. These two data sets include cost and performance improvements that result from increased deployment as well as resulting capacity factors estimated from particular model runs; other data sets represent model input data. For the technologies contained in each data set, the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) was also evaluated, according to published cost, performance, and fuel assumptions.

  13. Cost and Performance Assumptions for Modeling Electricity Generation Technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tidball, R.; Bluestein, J.; Rodriguez, N.; Knoke, S.

    2010-11-01

    The goal of this project was to compare and contrast utility scale power plant characteristics used in data sets that support energy market models. Characteristics include both technology cost and technology performance projections to the year 2050. Cost parameters include installed capital costs and operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Performance parameters include plant size, heat rate, capacity factor or availability factor, and plant lifetime. Conventional, renewable, and emerging electricity generating technologies were considered. Six data sets, each associated with a different model, were selected. Two of the data sets represent modeled results, not direct model inputs. These two data sets include cost and performance improvements that result from increased deployment as well as resulting capacity factors estimated from particular model runs; other data sets represent model input data. For the technologies contained in each data set, the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) was also evaluated, according to published cost, performance, and fuel assumptions.

  14. Analysing Models as a Knowledge Technology in Transport Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gudmundsson, Henrik

    2011-01-01

    Models belong to a wider family of knowledge technologies, applied in the transport area. Models sometimes share with other such technologies the fate of not being used as intended, or not at all. The result may be ill-conceived plans as well as wasted resources. Frequently, the blame for such a ......Models belong to a wider family of knowledge technologies, applied in the transport area. Models sometimes share with other such technologies the fate of not being used as intended, or not at all. The result may be ill-conceived plans as well as wasted resources. Frequently, the blame...... critical analytic literature on knowledge utilization and policy influence. A simple scheme based in this literature is drawn up to provide a framework for discussing the interface between urban transport planning and model use. A successful example of model use in Stockholm, Sweden is used as a heuristic...

  15. Investigating the Effect of Damage Progression Model Choice on Prognostics Performance

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The success of model-based approaches to systems health management depends largely on the quality of the underly- ing models. In model-based prognostics, it is...

  16. MOBILE CONTENT AND ADVERTISEMENT CHOICES OF TURKISH SPEAKING MOBILE MEDIA USERS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Osman Köroğlu

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Turkish speaking mobile communication device users’ mobile content and advertisement choices researched via a questionnaire prepared in the light of reasoned action theory, technology acceptance model, diffusion of innovations theory, unified technology acceptance and usage theory, and uses and gratifications approach. Findings of research analyzed and explained descriptively and statistically. In mobile content choices, economic viability, environment, function and context are important issues. In mobile advertisement and marketing choices, privacy of personal information and choices, permission based advertisement and marketing contents are important issues.

  17. A Network Analysis Model for Selecting Sustainable Technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sangsung Park

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Most companies develop technologies to improve their competitiveness in the marketplace. Typically, they then patent these technologies around the world in order to protect their intellectual property. Other companies may use patented technologies to develop new products, but must pay royalties to the patent holders or owners. Should they fail to do so, this can result in legal disputes in the form of patent infringement actions between companies. To avoid such situations, companies attempt to research and develop necessary technologies before their competitors do so. An important part of this process is analyzing existing patent documents in order to identify emerging technologies. In such analyses, extracting sustainable technology from patent data is important, because sustainable technology drives technological competition among companies and, thus, the development of new technologies. In addition, selecting sustainable technologies makes it possible to plan their R&D (research and development efficiently. In this study, we propose a network model that can be used to select the sustainable technology from patent documents, based on the centrality and degree of a social network analysis. To verify the performance of the proposed model, we carry out a case study using actual patent data from patent databases.

  18. Modeling learning technology systems as business systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Avgeriou, Paris; Retalis, Symeon; Papaspyrou, Nikolaos

    2003-01-01

    The design of Learning Technology Systems, and the Software Systems that support them, is largely conducted on an intuitive, ad hoc basis, thus resulting in inefficient systems that defectively support the learning process. There is now justifiable, increasing effort in formalizing the engineering o

  19. New Metacognitive Model for Human Performance Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, John R.

    2011-01-01

    Addressing metacognitive functions has been shown to improve performance at the individual, team, group, and organizational levels. Metacognition is beginning to surface as an added cognate discipline for the field of human performance technology (HPT). Advances from research in the fields of cognition and metacognition offer a place for HPT to…

  20. New Metacognitive Model for Human Performance Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, John R.

    2011-01-01

    Addressing metacognitive functions has been shown to improve performance at the individual, team, group, and organizational levels. Metacognition is beginning to surface as an added cognate discipline for the field of human performance technology (HPT). Advances from research in the fields of cognition and metacognition offer a place for HPT to…