WorldWideScience

Sample records for technological forecasting technique

  1. Approaches, techniques, and information technology systems in the restaurants and foodservice industry: a qualitative study in sales forecasting.

    OpenAIRE

    Green, Yvette N. J.; Weaver, Pamela A.

    2008-01-01

    This is a study of the approaches, techniques, and information technology systems utilized for restaurant sales forecasting in the full-service restaurant segment. Companies were examined using a qualitative research methods design and long interviews to gather information on approaches, techniques, and technology systems utilized in the sales forecasting process. The results of the interviews were presented along with ensuing discussion.

  2. Electricity demand forecasting techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gnanalingam, K.

    1994-01-01

    Electricity demand forecasting plays an important role in power generation. The two areas of data that have to be forecasted in a power system are peak demand which determines the capacity (MW) of the plant required and annual energy demand (GWH). Methods used in electricity demand forecasting include time trend analysis and econometric methods. In forecasting, identification of manpower demand, identification of key planning factors, decision on planning horizon, differentiation between prediction and projection (i.e. development of different scenarios) and choosing from different forecasting techniques are important

  3. Forecasting and management of technology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Roper, A. T

    2011-01-01

    .... The scope of this edition has broadened to include management of technology content that is relevant to now to executives in organizations while updating and strengthening the technology forecasting...

  4. Hydrocarbon Rocket Technology Impact Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuber, Eric; Prasadh, Nishant; Edwards, Stephen; Mavris, Dimitri N.

    2012-01-01

    Forecasting method is a normative forecasting technique that allows the designer to quantify the effects of adding new technologies on a given design. This method can be used to assess and identify the necessary technological improvements needed to close the gap that exists between the current design and one that satisfies all constraints imposed on the design. The TIF methodology allows for more design knowledge to be brought to the earlier phases of the design process, making use of tools such as Quality Function Deployments, Morphological Matrices, Response Surface Methodology, and Monte Carlo Simulations.2 This increased knowledge allows for more informed decisions to be made earlier in the design process, resulting in shortened design cycle time. This paper will investigate applying the TIF method, which has been widely used in aircraft applications, to the conceptual design of a hydrocarbon rocket engine. In order to reinstate a manned presence in space, the U.S. must develop an affordable and sustainable launch capability. Hydrocarbon-fueled rockets have drawn interest from numerous major government and commercial entities because they offer a low-cost heavy-lift option that would allow for frequent launches1. However, the development of effective new hydrocarbon rockets would likely require new technologies in order to overcome certain design constraints. The use of advanced design methods, such as the TIF method, enables the designer to identify key areas in need of improvement, allowing one to dial in a proposed technology and assess its impact on the system. Through analyses such as this one, a conceptual design for a hydrocarbon-fueled vehicle that meets all imposed requirements can be achieved.

  5. A Delphi forecast of technology in education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, B. E.

    1973-01-01

    The results are reported of a Delphi forecast of the utilization and social impacts of large-scale educational telecommunications technology. The focus is on both forecasting methodology and educational technology. The various methods of forecasting used by futurists are analyzed from the perspective of the most appropriate method for a prognosticator of educational technology, and review and critical analysis are presented of previous forecasts and studies. Graphic responses, summarized comments, and a scenario of education in 1990 are presented.

  6. Automated Aircraft Icing Forecast Technique.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1984-05-31

    an Air Weather Service detachment forecaster. Many thanks are due to Lt Col Robert G. Feddes who alerted me to this opportunity to automate and test...Safety Board, Washington, DC, Report No. NTSB-SR-81-1, 16 pp. Feddes, Robert G., 1974: A Synoptic-Scale Model for Simulating Condensed Atmospheric...AFOSR/TR-80/1279, 9pp. Hobbs, P. V., T. J. Matejka, P. H. Herzegh, J. D. Locatelli, and R. A. Houze , Jr., 1980b: The Mesoscale and Microscale

  7. Air Quality Forecasting through Different Statistical and Artificial Intelligence Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, D.; Goyal, P.

    2014-12-01

    Urban air pollution forecasting has emerged as an acute problem in recent years because there are sever environmental degradation due to increase in harmful air pollutants in the ambient atmosphere. In this study, there are different types of statistical as well as artificial intelligence techniques are used for forecasting and analysis of air pollution over Delhi urban area. These techniques are principle component analysis (PCA), multiple linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN) and the forecasting are observed in good agreement with the observed concentrations through Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) at different locations in Delhi. But such methods suffers from disadvantages like they provide limited accuracy as they are unable to predict the extreme points i.e. the pollution maximum and minimum cut-offs cannot be determined using such approach. Also, such methods are inefficient approach for better output forecasting. But with the advancement in technology and research, an alternative to the above traditional methods has been proposed i.e. the coupling of statistical techniques with artificial Intelligence (AI) can be used for forecasting purposes. The coupling of PCA, ANN and fuzzy logic is used for forecasting of air pollutant over Delhi urban area. The statistical measures e.g., correlation coefficient (R), normalized mean square error (NMSE), fractional bias (FB) and index of agreement (IOA) of the proposed model are observed in better agreement with the all other models. Hence, the coupling of statistical and artificial intelligence can be use for the forecasting of air pollutant over urban area.

  8. Handbook of Forecasting Techniques. Part I. List of 73 Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    1977-08-01

    differently by most practitioners. Techniques such ab meditation, certain games, psychedelic drugs , biofeedback, yoga, etc., often help in producing...m ~TIP JA\\’AB’fY 2E I lllltlt l! I i List of 73 Forecasting Techniques Cost- Benefit Analysis ,Statistical Models (Bayesian) Marginal Analysis...Steiner 1969, p. 412 FORECASTING EVALUATION FORM #1 What is it? Name: BENEFIT -COST ANALYSIS Definition/description: A technique to measure the coats of an

  9. The MST radar technique: Requirements for operational weather forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, M. F.

    1983-01-01

    There is a feeling that the accuracy of mesoscale forecasts for spatial scales of less than 1000 km and time scales of less than 12 hours can be improved significantly if resources are applied to the problem in an intensive effort over the next decade. Since the most dangerous and damaging types of weather occur at these scales, there are major advantages to be gained if such a program is successful. The interest in improving short term forecasting is evident. The technology at the present time is sufficiently developed, both in terms of new observing systems and the computing power to handle the observations, to warrant an intensive effort to improve stormscale forecasting. An assessment of the extent to which the so-called MST radar technique fulfills the requirements for an operational mesoscale observing network is reviewed and the extent to which improvements in various types of forecasting could be expected if such a network is put into operation are delineated.

  10. Are demand forecasting techniques applicable to libraries?

    OpenAIRE

    Sridhar, M. S.

    1984-01-01

    Examines the nature and limitations of demand forecasting, discuses plausible methods of forecasting demand for information, suggests some useful hints for demand forecasting and concludes by emphasizing unified approach to demand forecasting.

  11. Computer technology forecasting at the National Laboratories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peskin, A.M.

    1980-01-01

    The DOE Office of ADP Management organized a group of scientists and computer professionals, mostly from their own national laboratories, to prepare an annually updated technology forecast to accompany the Department's five-year ADP Plan. The activities of the task force were originally reported in an informal presentation made at the ACM Conference in 1978. This presentation represents an update of that report. It also deals with the process of applying the results obtained at a particular computing center, Brookhaven National Laboratory. Computer technology forecasting is a difficult and hazardous endeavor, but it can reap considerable advantage. The forecast performed on an industry-wide basis can be applied to the particular needs of a given installation, and thus give installation managers considerable guidance in planning. A beneficial side effect of this process is that it forces installation managers, who might otherwise tend to preoccupy themselves with immediate problems, to focus on longer term goals and means to their ends

  12. Forecasting methods for computer technology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Worlton, W.J.

    1978-01-01

    How well the computer site manager avoids future dangers and takes advantage of future opportunities depends to a considerable degree on how much anticipatory information he has available. People who rise in management are expected with each successive promotion to concern themselves with events further in the future. It is the function of technology projection to increase this stock of information about possible future developments in order to put planning and decision making on a more rational basis. Past efforts at computer technology projections have an accuracy that declines exponentially with time. Thus, precisely defined technology projections beyond about three years should be used with considerable caution. This paper reviews both subjective and objective methods of technology projection and gives examples of each. For an integrated view of future prospects in computer technology, a framework for technology projection is proposed.

  13. Forecasting and management of technology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Roper, A. T

    2011-01-01

    ... what the authors see as the innovations to technology management in the last 17 years: the Internet; the greater focus on group decision-making including process management and mechanism design; and desktop software that has transformed the analytical capabilities of technology managers"--Provided by publisher.

  14. Forecasting Technological Discontinuities in the ICT Industry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoisl, Karin; Stelzer, Tobias; Biala, Stefanie

    2015-01-01

    in the ICT industry. The conjoint approach allows for a simulation of the forecasting process and considers utility trade-offs. The results show that for both types of experts the perceived benefit of users most highly contributes to predicting technological discontinuities. Internal experts assign more...

  15. Forecasting and management of technology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Roper, A. T

    2011-01-01

    "The new, revised edition of this book will build on this knowledge in the context of business organizations that now place a greater emphasis on technology to stay on the cutting edge of development...

  16. Forecasting Interest Rates Using Geostatistical Techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuseppe Arbia

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Geostatistical spatial models are widely used in many applied fields to forecast data observed on continuous three-dimensional surfaces. We propose to extend their use to finance and, in particular, to forecasting yield curves. We present the results of an empirical application where we apply the proposed method to forecast Euro Zero Rates (2003–2014 using the Ordinary Kriging method based on the anisotropic variogram. Furthermore, a comparison with other recent methods for forecasting yield curves is proposed. The results show that the model is characterized by good levels of predictions’ accuracy and it is competitive with the other forecasting models considered.

  17. Wave Forecasting Using Neuro Wavelet Technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pradnya Dixit

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In the present work a hybrid Neuro-Wavelet Technique is used for forecasting waves up to 6 hr, 12 hr, 18 hr and 24 hr in advance using hourly measured significant wave heights at an NDBC station 41004 near the east coast of USA. The NW Technique is employed by combining two methods, Discrete Wavelet Transform and Artificial Neural Networks. The hourly data of previously measured significant wave heights spanning over 2 years from 2010 and 2011 is used to calibrate and test the models. The discrete wavelet transform of NWT analyzes frequency of signal with respect to time at different scales. It decomposes time series into low (approximate and high (detail frequency components. The decomposition of approximate can be carried out up to desired multiple levels in order to provide more detail and approximate components which provides relatively smooth varying amplitude series. The neural network is trained with decorrelated approximate and detail wavelet coefficients. The outputs of networks during testing are reconstructed back using inverse DWT. The results were judged by drawing the wave plots, scatter plots and other error measures. The developed models show reasonable accuracy in prediction of significant wave heights from 6 to 24 hours. To compare the results traditional ANN models were also developed at the same location using the same data and for same time interval.

  18. Methods and Techniques of Enrollment Forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brinkman, Paul T.; McIntyre, Chuck

    1997-01-01

    There is no right way to forecast college enrollments; in many instances, it will be prudent to use both qualitative and quantitative methods. Methods chosen must be relevant to questions addressed, policies and decisions at stake, and time and talent required. While it is tempting to start quickly, enrollment forecasting is an area in which…

  19. Wind Speed Forecasting Using Hybrid Wavelet Transform—ARMA Techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diksha Kaur

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to develop a novel wind speed forecasting technique, which produces more accurate prediction. The Wavelet Transform (WT along with the Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA is chosen to form a hybrid whose combination is expected to give minimum Mean Absolute Prediction Error (MAPE. A simulation study has been conducted by comparing the forecasting results using the Wavelet-ARMA with the ARMA and Artificial Neural Network (ANN-Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF hybrid technique to verify the effectiveness of the proposed hybrid method. Results of the proposed hybrid show significant improvements in the forecasting error.

  20. Techniques et technologies

    OpenAIRE

    Boscus, Alain; Comet, Georges; Fiocchi, Laurent; Fournier, Patrick; Morel, David; Phalip, Bruno; Pignot, Isabelle; Reveyron, Nicolas

    2014-01-01

    L’histoire des techniques est en train de réapparaître dans notre vision actuelle de l’histoire, non sans quelques difficultés, dues notamment au fait qu’histoire et histoire de l’art restent encore en retrait, dans l’appréhension concrète des technologies, par rapport aux arts et métiers ou à l’archéologie. Souhaitant ne céder ni à l’apparente fatalité des documentations inexplorées, ni à de trop belles évidences historiographiques, ce volume rassemble des auteurs travaillant aux limites de ...

  1. Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Demand in Azerbaijan Using Cointegration Techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fakhri J. Hasanov

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Policymakers in developing and transitional economies require sound models to: (i understand the drivers of rapidly growing energy consumption and (ii produce forecasts of future energy demand. This paper attempts to model electricity demand in Azerbaijan and provide future forecast scenarios—as far as we are aware this is the first such attempt for Azerbaijan using a comprehensive modelling framework. Electricity consumption increased and decreased considerably in Azerbaijan from 1995 to 2013 (the period used for the empirical analysis—it increased on average by about 4% per annum from 1995 to 2006 but decreased by about 4½% per annum from 2006 to 2010 and increased thereafter. It is therefore vital that Azerbaijani planners and policymakers understand what drives electricity demand and be able to forecast how it will grow in order to plan for future power production. However, modeling electricity demand for such a country has many challenges. Azerbaijan is rich in energy resources, consequently GDP is heavily influenced by oil prices; hence, real non-oil GDP is employed as the activity driver in this research (unlike almost all previous aggregate energy demand studies. Moreover, electricity prices are administered rather than market driven. Therefore, different cointegration and error correction techniques are employed to estimate a number of per capita electricity demand models for Azerbaijan, which are used to produce forecast scenarios for up to 2025. The resulting estimated models (in terms of coefficients, etc. and forecasts of electricity demand for Azerbaijan in 2025 prove to be very similar; with the Business as Usual forecast ranging from about of 19½ to 21 TWh.

  2. Of Needles and Haystacks: Novel Techniques for Data-Rich Economic Forecasting Data-Rich Economic Forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P. Exterkate (Peter)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractThis thesis discusses various novel techniques for economic forecasting. The focus is on methods that exploit the information in large data sets effectively. Each of these methods is compared to established techniques for forecasting yields on U.S. Treasury Bills, housing prices,

  3. A Bayesian Technique for Selecting a Linear Forecasting Model

    OpenAIRE

    Ramona L. Trader

    1983-01-01

    The specification of a forecasting model is considered in the context of linear multiple regression. Several potential predictor variables are available, but some of them convey little information about the dependent variable which is to be predicted. A technique for selecting the "best" set of predictors which takes into account the inherent uncertainty in prediction is detailed. In addition to current data, there is often substantial expert opinion available which is relevant to the forecas...

  4. Enhancing COSMO-DE ensemble forecasts by inexpensive techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zied Ben Bouallègue

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available COSMO-DE-EPS, a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system based on the high-resolution numerical weather prediction model COSMO-DE, is pre-operational since December 2010, providing probabilistic forecasts which cover Germany. This ensemble system comprises 20 members based on variations of the lateral boundary conditions, the physics parameterizations and the initial conditions. In order to increase the sample size in a computationally inexpensive way, COSMO-DE-EPS is combined with alternative ensemble techniques: the neighborhood method and the time-lagged approach. Their impact on the quality of the resulting probabilistic forecasts is assessed. Objective verification is performed over a six months period, scores based on the Brier score and its decomposition are shown for June 2011. The combination of the ensemble system with the alternative approaches improves probabilistic forecasts of precipitation in particular for high precipitation thresholds. Moreover, combining COSMO-DE-EPS with only the time-lagged approach improves the skill of area probabilities for precipitation and does not deteriorate the skill of 2 m-temperature and wind gusts forecasts.

  5. Precipitation forecasting through an analog sorting technique: a comparative study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ben Daoud, A.; Sauquet, E.; Lang, M.; Bontron, G.; Obled, C.

    2011-04-01

    This study aims at comparing two quantitative precipitation forecasting techniques based on the meteorological analogy concept. Method A considers first a selection of analogous situations at synoptic scale. Second a subset of the most similar situations in terms of hygrometry is extracted. Method B extends method A by two innovative ways, which are restricting the search for analogues with temperature information instead of the common season criterion, and exploiting the information about vertical motion considering vertical velocity. Forecasts are evaluated in a perfect prognosis context and in operational conditions as well, by mean of verification measures (Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score and scores computed from contingency tables). Results of the case study in France show that: (1) there is an increase in forecast skill when temperature and vertical velocity are included in the procedure, (2) it is possible to anticipate rainfall events up to one week ahead and (3) the introduction of new variables such as vertical velocity may be useless beyond few days ahead if the forecast of the weather model is not reliable.

  6. Forecasting and observability: critical technologies for system operations with high PV penetration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alet, Pierre-Jean; Efthymiou, Venizelos; Graditi, Giorgio

    2016-01-01

    Forecasting and monitoring technologies for photovoltaics are required on different spatial and temporal scales by multiple actors, from the owners of PV systems to transmission system operators. In this paper the Grid integration working group of the European Technology and Innovation Platform...... – Photovoltaics (ETIP PV) reviews the different use cases for these technologies, their current status, and the need for future developments. Power system operations require a real-time view of PV production for managing power reserves and for feeding shortterm forecasts. They also require forecasts on all...... timescales from the short (for dispatching purposes), where statistical models work best, to the very long (for infrastructure planning), where physics-based models are more accurate. Power system regulations are driving the development of these techniques. This application also provides a good basis...

  7. Forecasting and Technology Management: Statistical Theory and Methodological Issues

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henning

    of directions and targets for a R and D project, monitoring of a given area by a public agency, and evaluation of the future competitive situation for a company. This paper gives a brief introduction to the field of technological forecasting especially in relation to the strategic planning process......, they disturb, for better or worse, existing practices, institutions, and human activities. The rapidity of introduction of technical successors seems to be increasing in many fields. Therefore, each technology concept tends to have a shorter marketplace life because of prompt challenge from a new and superior...... technology. The conclusion is that widespread awareness of the growing force of technology and increasing concern over its impact means that forecasting of technological development and consequences is absolutely essential in many managerial decision situations. Examples cover e.g. identification...

  8. Using Deep Learning Techniques to Forecast Environmental Consumption Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donghyun Lee

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Artificial intelligence is a promising futuristic concept in the field of science and technology, and is widely used in new industries. The deep-learning technology leads to performance enhancement and generalization of artificial intelligence technology. The global leader in the field of information technology has declared its intention to utilize the deep-learning technology to solve environmental problems such as climate change, but few environmental applications have so far been developed. This study uses deep-learning technologies in the environmental field to predict the status of pro-environmental consumption. We predicted the pro-environmental consumption index based on Google search query data, using a recurrent neural network (RNN model. To verify the accuracy of the index, we compared the prediction accuracy of the RNN model with that of the ordinary least square and artificial neural network models. The RNN model predicts the pro-environmental consumption index better than any other model. We expect the RNN model to perform still better in a big data environment because the deep-learning technologies would be increasingly sophisticated as the volume of data grows. Moreover, the framework of this study could be useful in environmental forecasting to prevent damage caused by climate change.

  9. An Interval Estimation Method of Patent Keyword Data for Sustainable Technology Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daiho Uhm

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Technology forecasting (TF is forecasting the future state of a technology. It is exciting to know the future of technologies, because technology changes the way we live and enhances the quality of our lives. In particular, TF is an important area in the management of technology (MOT for R&D strategy and new product development. Consequently, there are many studies on TF. Patent analysis is one method of TF because patents contain substantial information regarding developed technology. The conventional methods of patent analysis are based on quantitative approaches such as statistics and machine learning. The most traditional TF methods based on patent analysis have a common problem. It is the sparsity of patent keyword data structured from collected patent documents. After preprocessing with text mining techniques, most frequencies of technological keywords in patent data have values of zero. This problem creates a disadvantage for the performance of TF, and we have trouble analyzing patent keyword data. To solve this problem, we propose an interval estimation method (IEM. Using an adjusted Wald confidence interval called the Agresti–Coull confidence interval, we construct our IEM for efficient TF. In addition, we apply the proposed method to forecast the technology of an innovative company. To show how our work can be applied in the real domain, we conduct a case study using Apple technology.

  10. Robotic Technology: An Assessment and Forecast,

    Science.gov (United States)

    1984-07-01

    competitiveness of this industry requires the . .. use of the most cost-effective manufacturing techniques available. Beyond cost-effectiveness, sheer ...It 4-1 (1983). Nagel* R., ’ Robots: Not Yet Smart Enough.’ IEEE Spectrum 20, 78 (1983). Schwartz. J. and Sharir, ’On the Piano Movers’ Problem: V. The

  11. Technology Reconciliation in the Remote Sensing ERA of United States Civilian Weather Forecasting: 1957 -1987.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Courain, Margaret Eileen

    This dissertation seeks to advance an understanding of the management of a major technological change in meteorology. The study examines the connection between changes in production and real-time use of data products derived from remote -sensing data collection and the evolution of U.S. civilian weather forecasting 1957-1987. The role of data collection in weather forecasting throughout history is examined, giving most attention to the 1957-1987 period. Critical to the real-time use of remote-sensing data was technology reconciliation. As defined by the author, it is the function or process by which data products and information derived from a new technology are made consistent or congruent with the existing data representations of a science in order to be used effectively. No model had been developed for a technology reconciliation process, or definition of the major role technology reconciliators played in the 30-year evolution of the science of weather forecasting. In order to assess the new remote-sensing data resource and its use in U.S. civilian weather forecasting, a Data Accountability and Review Technique (DART) was developed by the author in 1989. This technique was used to identify 16 of the technology reconciliators who developed and reconciled 25 new remote-sensing data products with the weather charts, maps and computer models of the National Weather Service. In five separate program teams, they were responsible for 15 improvements in the products--forecasts--and 18 improvement in the process of weather forecasting. A model of the technology reconciliation is proposed which can be applied to understanding the contemporary history of other sciences. The model, as well as the methods developed by the author to recognize the process of technology reconciliation has a much more general applicability beyond the sciences. Any field implementing new technology that promises to improve its whole way of working will be faced with the task of technology

  12. Study on the Method of the Technology Forecasting Based on Conjoint Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miao, Jing-Yi; Liu, Cheng-Yu; Sun, Zhen-Hua

    We discuss an application of conjoint analysis in technology forecasting, summarize basic operation steps of conjoint analysis, and give a stimulant example of technology forecasting. In this example, we consider five factors that will affect the emergence of a new technology. These factors have investing demand in a new technology, potential market value of a new technology, realizable difficulty of a new technology, supporting degree of relative technology to a new technology, and the competitive power of a new technology with original technology. Technology development has a discontinuity. With discontinuity, we cannot forecast the future of technology development, based on the current trend of technology development. As using quantitative methods to make forecasting, we assumed that current trends of technology development hold a fixed law, so those quantitative methods cannot forecast the discontinuity of technology development. Some subjective forecasting methods have huge improvement in technological discontinuity forecasting. The improvement is that forecaster's subjective judgments and capability are embodied in forecasting. But this method has two inherent defects: one is the lack of design ability, which makes this method susceptible to the influence of organizer and forecasting, and the other is that while facing numerous forecasters, the forecasting data are often difficult to explain and analyze; we also have difficultly in making a synthesized judgment. A subjective and synthesized judgment of technology development is similar to economical utility, thus we could apply the measure of colony's utility to improve the appropriateness and reliability of subjective forecasting method. Using conjoint analysis, we can judge the colony's utility accurately, because the datum that we use in analysis comes from the subjective judgments of forecasters to various fields of technical development, but the influence of the random error can be dispelled by using

  13. Computer technology forecast study for general aviation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seacord, C. L.; Vaughn, D.

    1976-01-01

    A multi-year, multi-faceted program is underway to investigate and develop potential improvements in airframes, engines, and avionics for general aviation aircraft. The objective of this study was to assemble information that will allow the government to assess the trends in computer and computer/operator interface technology that may have application to general aviation in the 1980's and beyond. The current state of the art of computer hardware is assessed, technical developments in computer hardware are predicted, and nonaviation large volume users of computer hardware are identified.

  14. Operational flash flood forecasting platform based on grid technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thierion, V.; Ayral, P.-A.; Angelini, V.; Sauvagnargues-Lesage, S.; Nativi, S.; Payrastre, O.

    2009-04-01

    Flash flood events of south of France such as the 8th and 9th September 2002 in the Grand Delta territory caused important economic and human damages. Further to this catastrophic hydrological situation, a reform of flood warning services have been initiated (set in 2006). Thus, this political reform has transformed the 52 existing flood warning services (SAC) in 22 flood forecasting services (SPC), in assigning them territories more hydrological consistent and new effective hydrological forecasting mission. Furthermore, national central service (SCHAPI) has been created to ease this transformation and support local services in their new objectives. New functioning requirements have been identified: - SPC and SCHAPI carry the responsibility to clearly disseminate to public organisms, civil protection actors and population, crucial hydrologic information to better anticipate potential dramatic flood event, - a new effective hydrological forecasting mission to these flood forecasting services seems essential particularly for the flash floods phenomenon. Thus, models improvement and optimization was one of the most critical requirements. Initially dedicated to support forecaster in their monitoring mission, thanks to measuring stations and rainfall radar images analysis, hydrological models have to become more efficient in their capacity to anticipate hydrological situation. Understanding natural phenomenon occuring during flash floods mainly leads present hydrological research. Rather than trying to explain such complex processes, the presented research try to manage the well-known need of computational power and data storage capacities of these services. Since few years, Grid technology appears as a technological revolution in high performance computing (HPC) allowing large-scale resource sharing, computational power using and supporting collaboration across networks. Nowadays, EGEE (Enabling Grids for E-science in Europe) project represents the most important

  15. An improved market penetration model for wind energy technology forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lund, P.D. [Helsinki Univ. of Technology, Espoo (Finland). Advanced Energy Systems

    1995-12-31

    An improved market penetration model with application to wind energy forecasting is presented. In the model, a technology diffusion model and manufacturing learning curve are combined. Based on a 85% progress ratio that was found for European wind manufactures and on wind market statistics, an additional wind power capacity of ca 4 GW is needed in Europe to reach a 30 % price reduction. A full breakthrough to low-cost utility bulk power markets could be achieved at a 24 GW level. (author)

  16. An improved market penetration model for wind energy technology forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lund, P.D.

    1995-01-01

    An improved market penetration model with application to wind energy forecasting is presented. In the model, a technology diffusion model and manufacturing learning curve are combined. Based on a 85% progress ratio that was found for European wind manufactures and on wind market statistics, an additional wind power capacity of ca 4 GW is needed in Europe to reach a 30 % price reduction. A full breakthrough to low-cost utility bulk power markets could be achieved at a 24 GW level. (author)

  17. Improving the Army’s Next Effort in Technology Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-01

    Richard Feynman , “Simulating Physics with Computers,” International Journal of Theoretical Physics, 21 (1982), 467–488. 45 D. Deutsch, “Quantum Theory...Improving the Army’s Next Effort in Technology Forecasting John Lyons, Richard Chait, and Simone Erchov, Editors...Psychology and Human Development from the University of Chicago. Richard Chait is a Distinguished Research Fellow at CTNSP. He was previously Chief

  18. Analyses and Forecasting of Smart Grid Technological Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. V. Danilin

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: this paper analyzes and forecasts medium- to long-term dynamics of Smart Grid technology developments considering both patent activity and socio-economic (demand-side issues and requirements of economy and power system factors. Methods: for the analysis of Smart Grid patent data (IIP, USPTO, and WIPO patent databases used we apply syntactic semantic analysis of texts in natural languages and logistic curve-based method. We propose Exactus Patent system for intelligent full-text search and analysis of patents (results verified with Thomson Innovation and TotalPatent patent search systems. For interpretation of revealed dynamics and forecasting of future conditions we identify key long-term socio-economic factors drivers for Smart Grid development. Elements of C. Christensen (disruptive innovations and G. Dosi (technological trajectories theories were applied. Results: the study reveals a fast technological transformation within the Smart Grid domain due to the long-term socio-economic factors such as rise of renewables; energy efficiency and energy security issues; environmental constraints and shift of values; requirements for accelerated grid construction (in developing economies and grid modernization (in developed ones; ongoing economy-wide digitalization. Due to the limited economic effects of Smart Grid roll-outs (considering major requirements of economic agents and society and considering progressions of patent dynamics, authors forecasts technology stagnation (in terms of number of patents growth by the end of 2010-s as end of Gartner`s hype development stage. Conclusions and Relevance: a foreseen change in dynamics of Smart Grid technology development is interpreted as a manifestation of sinusoidal fluctuations in technology development for disruptive technologies (supported with OECD data. A longer cycle (in comparison with other disruptive technologies is interpreted as consequence of technology and industry specifics

  19. Technological forecasting a long time of the scientific-technological development of the nuclear fusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schettert, Plinio G.; Oliveira, Wagner S.; Aquino, Afonso R.

    2009-01-01

    With base in the introduction in long time of the nuclear fusion inside of a system of viable energy, taking in consideration economic factors, would imply on investment in a long period. The objective of this project utilizing the method of the Delphi technique is the technological forecast a long time of the scientific-technological development of the nuclear fusion and its impact. This research project will be carried through different stages of improvement of variables. A questionnaire based on information and analysis of the literature validated for specialists in nuclear fusion becomes this project a tool in the elaboration future of a database contends variables on the theme nuclear fusion and its perspectives. The database will be composed for the answers and suggestions obtained, with exploratory and extrapolatory elements, on the theme a great number of specialists involving in the nuclear fusion area. The database is analyzed for the configuration of variables that represent elements as scientific-technological factors, economical, political, social and environmental among others. As final result of the research with the Delphi technique, different scenes obtained with the variables will be indicated by convergent factors or not on the approached perspectives. The analysis of the data will be possible through of improve of statistical analysis tools. This is the first analyzes of the answers. The questionnaire was validated with nuclear fusion specialists from the Institute of Physics of the University of Sao Paulo in Brazil and the Center of Nuclear Fusion of the Technical University of Lisbon in Portugal. (author)

  20. Food security, technology, and techniques

    OpenAIRE

    Ghani, Saud; Aljabri, Hareb; El Kharbotly, Ali

    2017-01-01

    CENG held a seminar on “Food Security, Technology and Techniques” on November 9, in collaboration with the Ministry of Municipality and Environment (MME). The event aimed to discuss the main techniques that should be followed to enhance food security through investing in technology.

  1. Technology and demand forecasting for carbon capture and storage technology in South Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shin, Jungwoo; Lee, Chul-Yong; Kim, Hongbum

    2016-01-01

    Among the various alternatives available to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, carbon capture and storage (CCS) is considered to be a prospective technology that could both improve economic growth and meet GHG emission reduction targets. Despite the importance of CCS, however, studies of technology and demand forecasting for CCS are scarce. This study bridges this gap in the body of knowledge on this topic by forecasting CCS technology and demand based on an integrated model. For technology forecasting, a logistic model and patent network analysis are used to compare the competitiveness of CCS technology for selected countries. For demand forecasting, a competition diffusion model is adopted to consider competition among renewable energies and forecast demand. The results show that the number of patent applications for CCS technology will increase to 16,156 worldwide and to 4,790 in Korea by 2025. We also find that the United States has the most competitive CCS technology followed by Korea and France. Moreover, about 5 million tCO 2 e of GHG will be reduced by 2040 if CCS technology is adopted in Korea after 2020. - Highlights: • Carbon capture and storage (CCS) can help mitigate climate change globally. • It can both improve economic growth and meet GHG emission reduction targets. • We forecast CCS technology and demand based on an integrated model. • The US has the most competitive CCS technology followed by Korea and France. • 5 million tCO 2 e of GHG will be reduced by 2040 if CCS is adopted in Korea.

  2. Data-Driven Techniques for Regional Groundwater Level Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, F. J.; Chang, L. C.; Tsai, F. H.; Shen, H. Y.

    2015-12-01

    Data-Driven Techniques for Regional Groundwater Level Forecasts Fi-John Changa, Li-Chiu Changb, Fong He Tsaia, Hung-Yu Shenba Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University, Taipei 10617, Taiwan, ROC. b Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, Tamkang University, New Taipei City 25137, Taiwan, ROC..Correspondence to: Fi-John Chang (email: changfj@ntu.edu.tw)The alluvial fan of the Zhuoshui River in Taiwan is a good natural recharge area of groundwater. However, the over extraction of groundwater occurs in the coastland results in serious land subsidence. Groundwater systems are heterogeneous with diverse temporal-spatial patterns, and it is very difficult to quantify their complex processes. Data-driven methods can effectively capture the spatial-temporal characteristics of input-output patterns at different scales for accurately imitating dynamic complex systems with less computational requirements. In this study, we implement various data-driven methods to suitably predict the regional groundwater level variations for making countermeasures in response to the land subsidence issue in the study area. We first establish the relationship between regional rainfall, streamflow as well as groundwater levels and then construct intelligent groundwater level prediction models for the basin based on the long-term (2000-2013) regional monthly data sets collected from the Zhuoshui River basin. We analyze the interaction between hydrological factors and groundwater level variations; apply the self-organizing map (SOM) to obtain the clustering results of the spatial-temporal groundwater level variations; and then apply the recurrent configuration of nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous inputs (R-NARX) to predicting the monthly groundwater levels. As a consequence, a regional intelligent groundwater level prediction model can be constructed based on the adaptive results of the SOM. Results demonstrate that the development

  3. Ensemble flare forecasting: using numerical weather prediction techniques to improve space weather operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, S.; Guerra, J. A.

    2017-12-01

    One essential component of operational space weather forecasting is the prediction of solar flares. Early flare forecasting work focused on statistical methods based on historical flaring rates, but more complex machine learning methods have been developed in recent years. A multitude of flare forecasting methods are now available, however it is still unclear which of these methods performs best, and none are substantially better than climatological forecasts. Current operational space weather centres cannot rely on automated methods, and generally use statistical forecasts with a little human intervention. Space weather researchers are increasingly looking towards methods used in terrestrial weather to improve current forecasting techniques. Ensemble forecasting has been used in numerical weather prediction for many years as a way to combine different predictions in order to obtain a more accurate result. It has proved useful in areas such as magnetospheric modelling and coronal mass ejection arrival analysis, however has not yet been implemented in operational flare forecasting. Here we construct ensemble forecasts for major solar flares by linearly combining the full-disk probabilistic forecasts from a group of operational forecasting methods (ASSA, ASAP, MAG4, MOSWOC, NOAA, and Solar Monitor). Forecasts from each method are weighted by a factor that accounts for the method's ability to predict previous events, and several performance metrics (both probabilistic and categorical) are considered. The results provide space weather forecasters with a set of parameters (combination weights, thresholds) that allow them to select the most appropriate values for constructing the 'best' ensemble forecast probability value, according to the performance metric of their choice. In this way different forecasts can be made to fit different end-user needs.

  4. Electric power systems advanced forecasting techniques and optimal generation scheduling

    CERN Document Server

    Catalão, João P S

    2012-01-01

    Overview of Electric Power Generation SystemsCláudio MonteiroUncertainty and Risk in Generation SchedulingRabih A. JabrShort-Term Load ForecastingAlexandre P. Alves da Silva and Vitor H. FerreiraShort-Term Electricity Price ForecastingNima AmjadyShort-Term Wind Power ForecastingGregor Giebel and Michael DenhardPrice-Based Scheduling for GencosGovinda B. Shrestha and Songbo QiaoOptimal Self-Schedule of a Hydro Producer under UncertaintyF. Javier Díaz and Javie

  5. A Multi-scale, Multi-Model, Machine-Learning Solar Forecasting Technology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamann, Hendrik F. [IBM, Yorktown Heights, NY (United States). Thomas J. Watson Research Center

    2017-05-31

    The goal of the project was the development and demonstration of a significantly improved solar forecasting technology (short: Watt-sun), which leverages new big data processing technologies and machine-learnt blending between different models and forecast systems. The technology aimed demonstrating major advances in accuracy as measured by existing and new metrics which themselves were developed as part of this project. Finally, the team worked with Independent System Operators (ISOs) and utilities to integrate the forecasts into their operations.

  6. Applying the Repertory Grid Method for Technology Forecasting: Civil Unmanned Aviation Systems for Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eimecke Jörgen

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Multistage expert surveys like the Delphi method are proven concepts for technology forecasting that enable the prediction of content-related and temporal development in fields of innovation (e.g., [1, 2]. Advantages of these qualitative multistage methods are a simple and easy to understand concept while still delivering valid results [3]. Nevertheless, the literature also points out certain disadvantages especially in large-scale technology forecasts in particularly abstract fields of innovation [4]. The proposed approach highlights the usefulness of the repertory grid method as an alternative for technology forecasting and as a first step for preference measurement. The basic approach from Baier and Kohler [5] is modified in-so-far that an online survey reduces the cognitive burden for the experts and simplifies the data collection process. Advantages over alternative approaches through its simple structure and through combining qualitative and quantitative methods are shown and an adaption on an actual field of innovation – civil drones in Germany – is done. The measurement of a common terminology for all experts minimizes misunderstandings during the interview and the achievement of an inter-individual comparable level of abstraction is forced by the laddering technique [6] during the interview.

  7. Technological developments in real-time operational hydrologic forecasting in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudlow, Michael D.

    1988-09-01

    The hydrologic forecasting service of the United States spans applications and scales ranging from those associated with the issuance of flood and flash warnings to those pertaining to seasonal water supply forecasts. New technological developments (underway in or planned by the National Weather Service (NWS) in support of the Hydrologic Program) are carried out as combined efforts by NWS headquarters and field personnel in cooperation with other organizations. These developments fall into two categories: hardware and software systems technology, and hydrometeorological analysis and prediction technology. Research, development, and operational implementation in progress in both of these areas are discussed. Cornerstones of an overall NWS modernization effort include implementation of state-of-the-art data acquisition systems (including the Next Generation Weather Radar) and communications and computer processing systems. The NWS Hydrologic Service will capitalize on these systems and will incorporate results from specific hydrologic projects including collection and processing of multivariate data sets, conceptual hydrologic modeling systems, integrated hydrologic modeling systems with meteorological interfaces and automatic updating of model states, and extended streamflow prediction techniques. The salient aspects of ongoing work in these areas are highlighted in this paper, providing some perspective on the future U.S. hydrologic forecasting service and its transitional period into the 1990s.

  8. Forecasting the impact of virtual environment technology on maintenance training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlager, Mark S.; Boman, Duane; Piantanida, Tom; Stephenson, Robert

    1993-01-01

    To assist NASA and the Air Force in determining how and when to invest in virtual environment (VE) technology for maintenance training, we identified possible roles for VE technology in such training, assessed its cost-effectiveness relative to existing technologies, and formulated recommendations for a research agenda that would address instructional and system development issues involved in fielding a VE training system. In the first phase of the study, we surveyed VE developers to forecast capabilities, maturity, and estimated costs for VE component technologies. We then identified maintenance tasks and their training costs through interviews with maintenance technicians, instructors, and training developers. Ten candidate tasks were selected from two classes of maintenance tasks (seven aircraft maintenance and three space maintenance) using five criteria developed to identify types of tasks most likely to benefit from VE training. Three tasks were used as specific cases for cost-benefit analysis. In formulating research recommendations, we considered three aspects of feasibility: technological considerations, cost-effectiveness, and anticipated R&D efforts. In this paper, we describe the major findings in each of these areas and suggest research efforts that we believe will help achieve the goal of a cost-effective VE maintenance training system by the next decade.

  9. Ionospheric scintillation forecasting model based on NN-PSO technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sridhar, M.; Venkata Ratnam, D.; Padma Raju, K.; Sai Praharsha, D.; Saathvika, K.

    2017-09-01

    The forecasting and modeling of ionospheric scintillation effects are crucial for precise satellite positioning and navigation applications. In this paper, a Neural Network model, trained using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm, has been implemented for the prediction of amplitude scintillation index (S4) observations. The Global Positioning System (GPS) and Ionosonde data available at Darwin, Australia (12.4634° S, 130.8456° E) during 2013 has been considered. The correlation analysis between GPS S4 and Ionosonde drift velocities (hmf2 and fof2) data has been conducted for forecasting the S4 values. The results indicate that forecasted S4 values closely follow the measured S4 values for both the quiet and disturbed conditions. The outcome of this work will be useful for understanding the ionospheric scintillation phenomena over low latitude regions.

  10. Forecasting of global solar radiation using anfis and armax techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muhammad, Auwal; Gaya, M. S.; Aliyu, Rakiya; Aliyu Abdulkadir, Rabi’u.; Dauda Umar, Ibrahim; Aminu Yusuf, Lukuman; Umar Ali, Mudassir; Khairi, M. T. M.

    2018-01-01

    Procurement of measuring device, maintenance cost coupled with calibration of the instrument contributed to the difficulty in forecasting of global solar radiation in underdeveloped countries. Most of the available regressional and mathematical models do not capture well the behavior of the global solar radiation. This paper presents the comparison of Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Autoregressive Moving Average with eXogenous term (ARMAX) in forecasting global solar radiation. Full-Scale (experimental) data of Nigerian metrological agency, Sultan Abubakar III international airport Sokoto was used to validate the models. The simulation results demonstrated that the ANFIS model having achieved MAPE of 5.34% outperformed the ARMAX model. The ANFIS could be a valuable tool for forecasting the global solar radiation.

  11. Filters or Holt Winters Technique to Improve the SPF Forecasts for USA Inflation Rate?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihaela Bratu (Simionescu

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available In this study, transformations of SPF inflation forecasts were made in order to get moreaccurate predictions. The filters application and Holt Winters technique were chosen as possiblestrategies of improving the predictions accuracy. The quarterly inflation rate forecasts (1975 Q1-2012Q3 of USAmade by SPF were transformed using an exponential smoothing technique-HoltWinters-and these new predictions are better than the initial ones for all forecasting horizons of 4quarters. Some filters were applied to SPF forecasts (Hodrick-Prescott,Band-Pass and Christiano-Fitzegerald filters, but Holt Winters method was superior.Full sample asymmetric (Christiano-Fitzegerald and Band-Pass filtersmoothed values are more accurate than the SPF expectations onlyfor some forecast horizons.

  12. Short-term stream flow forecasting at Australian river sites using data-driven regression techniques

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Steyn, Melise

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This study proposes a computationally efficient solution to stream flow forecasting for river basins where historical time series data are available. Two data-driven modeling techniques are investigated, namely support vector regression...

  13. Towards a GME ensemble forecasting system: Ensemble initialization using the breeding technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan D. Keller

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The quantitative forecast of precipitation requires a probabilistic background particularly with regard to forecast lead times of more than 3 days. As only ensemble simulations can provide useful information of the underlying probability density function, we built a new ensemble forecasting system (GME-EFS based on the GME model of the German Meteorological Service (DWD. For the generation of appropriate initial ensemble perturbations we chose the breeding technique developed by Toth and Kalnay (1993, 1997, which develops perturbations by estimating the regions of largest model error induced uncertainty. This method is applied and tested in the framework of quasi-operational forecasts for a three month period in 2007. The performance of the resulting ensemble forecasts are compared to the operational ensemble prediction systems ECMWF EPS and NCEP GFS by means of ensemble spread of free atmosphere parameters (geopotential and temperature and ensemble skill of precipitation forecasting. This comparison indicates that the GME ensemble forecasting system (GME-EFS provides reasonable forecasts with spread skill score comparable to that of the NCEP GFS. An analysis with the continuous ranked probability score exhibits a lack of resolution for the GME forecasts compared to the operational ensembles. However, with significant enhancements during the 3 month test period, the first results of our work with the GME-EFS indicate possibilities for further development as well as the potential for later operational usage.

  14. Short term load forecasting technique based on the seasonal exponential adjustment method and the regression model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Jie; Wang, Jianzhou; Lu, Haiyan; Dong, Yao; Lu, Xiaoxiao

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► The seasonal and trend items of the data series are forecasted separately. ► Seasonal item in the data series is verified by the Kendall τ correlation testing. ► Different regression models are applied to the trend item forecasting. ► We examine the superiority of the combined models by the quartile value comparison. ► Paired-sample T test is utilized to confirm the superiority of the combined models. - Abstract: For an energy-limited economy system, it is crucial to forecast load demand accurately. This paper devotes to 1-week-ahead daily load forecasting approach in which load demand series are predicted by employing the information of days before being similar to that of the forecast day. As well as in many nonlinear systems, seasonal item and trend item are coexisting in load demand datasets. In this paper, the existing of the seasonal item in the load demand data series is firstly verified according to the Kendall τ correlation testing method. Then in the belief of the separate forecasting to the seasonal item and the trend item would improve the forecasting accuracy, hybrid models by combining seasonal exponential adjustment method (SEAM) with the regression methods are proposed in this paper, where SEAM and the regression models are employed to seasonal and trend items forecasting respectively. Comparisons of the quartile values as well as the mean absolute percentage error values demonstrate this forecasting technique can significantly improve the accuracy though models applied to the trend item forecasting are eleven different ones. This superior performance of this separate forecasting technique is further confirmed by the paired-sample T tests

  15. Forecasting and observability: critical technologies for system operations with high PV penetration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alet, Pierre-Jean; Efthymiou, Venizelos; Graditi, Giorgio

    2016-01-01

    Forecasting and monitoring technologies for photovoltaics are required on different spatial and temporal scales by multiple actors, from the owners of PV systems to transmission system operators. In this paper the Grid integration working group of the European Technology and Innovation Platform –...... for a cost/benefit analysis since the forecasting error can be linked to the prices charged for energy imbalance......Forecasting and monitoring technologies for photovoltaics are required on different spatial and temporal scales by multiple actors, from the owners of PV systems to transmission system operators. In this paper the Grid integration working group of the European Technology and Innovation Platform...... – Photovoltaics (ETIP PV) reviews the different use cases for these technologies, their current status, and the need for future developments. Power system operations require a real-time view of PV production for managing power reserves and for feeding shortterm forecasts. They also require forecasts on all...

  16. A formulation of multidimensional growth models for the assessment and forecast of technology attributes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danner, Travis W.

    modeling technique begins to diminish. With the introduction of multiple objectives, researchers often abandon technology growth models for scoring models and technology frontiers. While both approaches possess advantages over current growth models for the assessment of multi-objective technologies, each lacks a necessary dimension for comprehensive technology assessment. By collapsing multiple system metrics into a single, non-intuitive technology measure, scoring models provide a succinct framework for multi-objective technology assessment and forecasting. Yet, with no consideration of physical limits, scoring models provide no insight as to the feasibility of a particular combination of system capabilities. They only indicate that a given combination of system capabilities yields a particular score. Conversely, technology frontiers are constructed with the distinct objective of providing insight into the feasibility of system capability combinations. Yet again, upper limits to overall system performance are ignored. Furthermore, the data required to forecast subsequent technology frontiers is often inhibitive. In an attempt to reincorporate the fundamental nature of technology advancement as bound by physical principles, researchers have sought to normalize multi-objective systems whereby the variability of a single system objective is eliminated as a result of changes in the remaining objectives. This drastically limits the applicability of the resulting technology model because it is only applicable for a single setting of all other system attributes. Attempts to maintain the interaction between the growth curves of each technical objective of a complex system have thus far been limited to qualitative and subjective consideration. This research proposes the formulation of multidimensional growth models as an approach to simulating the advancement of multi-objective technologies towards their upper limits. Multidimensional growth models were formulated by noticing and

  17. A technique of forecasting inefficient negative investments in Ukraine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nataliya N. Andrienko

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper reviews a methodology of inefficient capital outflow forecasting in Ukraine, as one of the new instruments for investment activity revivification under the system crisis conditions. An analogy is made between the foreseeable and unexpected losses in crediting as well as the efficient and inefficient capital outflows in the form of reserve funds accrual and subsequent reverse procedure. Phenomenological approach and generalization of the experience in negative investment analysis are applied. Exposed is the substantiation of phenomenological approach in choosing one of the proposed beta distribution options with economic interpretation of this approach development. Considered is the maximum entropy principle as a stochastic dominance revealed therein.

  18. Review of methods for forecasting the market penetration of new technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gilshannon, S.T.; Brown, D.R.

    1996-12-01

    In 1993 the DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EE) initiated a program called Quality Metrics. Quality Metrics was developed to measure the costs and benefits of technologies being developed by EE R&D programs. The impact of any new technology is directly related to its adoption by the market. The techniques employed to project market adoption are critical to measuring a new technology`s impact. Our purpose was to review current market penetration theories and models and develop a recommended approach for evaluating the market penetration of DOE technologies. The following commonly cited innovation diffusion theories were reviewed to identify analytical approaches relevant to new energy technologies: (1) the normal noncumulative adopter distribution method, (2) the Bass Model, (3) the Mansfield-Blackman Model, (4) the Fisher-Pry Model, (5) a meta-analysis of innovation diffusion studies. Of the theories reviewed, the Bass and Mansfield-Blackman models were found most applicable to forecasting the market penetration of electricity supply technologies. Their algorithms require input estimates which characterize the technology adoption behavior of the electricity supply industry. But, inadequate work has been done to quantify the technology adoption characteristics of this industry. The following energy technology market penetration models were also reviewed: (1) DOE`s Renewable Energy Penetration (REP) Model, (2) DOE`s Electricity Capacity Planning Submodule of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), (3) the Assessment of Energy Technologies (ASSET) model by Regional Economic Research, Inc., (4) the Market TREK model by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). The two DOE models were developed for electricity generation technologies whereas the Regional Economic Research and EPRI models were designed for demand- side energy technology markets. Therefore, the review and evaluation focused on the DOE models.

  19. Review of methods for forecasting the market penetration of new technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilshannon, S.T.; Brown, D.R.

    1996-12-01

    In 1993 the DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EE) initiated a program called Quality Metrics. Quality Metrics was developed to measure the costs and benefits of technologies being developed by EE R ampersand D programs. The impact of any new technology is directly related to its adoption by the market. The techniques employed to project market adoption are critical to measuring a new technology's impact. Our purpose was to review current market penetration theories and models and develop a recommended approach for evaluating the market penetration of DOE technologies. The following commonly cited innovation diffusion theories were reviewed to identify analytical approaches relevant to new energy technologies: (1) the normal noncumulative adopter distribution method, (2) the Bass Model, (3) the Mansfield-Blackman Model, (4) the Fisher-Pry Model, (5) a meta-analysis of innovation diffusion studies. Of the theories reviewed, the Bass and Mansfield-Blackman models were found most applicable to forecasting the market penetration of electricity supply technologies. Their algorithms require input estimates which characterize the technology adoption behavior of the electricity supply industry. But, inadequate work has been done to quantify the technology adoption characteristics of this industry. The following energy technology market penetration models were also reviewed: (1) DOE's Renewable Energy Penetration (REP) Model, (2) DOE's Electricity Capacity Planning Submodule of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), (3) the Assessment of Energy Technologies (ASSET) model by Regional Economic Research, Inc., (4) the Market TREK model by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). The two DOE models were developed for electricity generation technologies whereas the Regional Economic Research and EPRI models were designed for demand- side energy technology markets. Therefore, the review and evaluation focused on the DOE models

  20. Forecasting performances of three automated modelling techniques during the economic crisis 2007-2009

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kock, Anders Bredahl; Teräsvirta, Timo

    2014-01-01

    In this work we consider the forecasting of macroeconomic variables during an economic crisis. The focus is on a specific class of models, the so-called single hidden-layer feed-forward autoregressive neural network models. What makes these models interesting in the present context is the fact...... Scandinavian ones, and focus on forecasting during the economic crisis 2007–2009. The forecast accuracy is measured using the root mean square forecast error. Hypothesis testing is also used to compare the performances of the different techniques....... that they form a class of universal approximators and may be expected to work well during exceptional periods such as major economic crises. Neural network models are often difficult to estimate, and we follow the idea of White (2006) of transforming the specification and nonlinear estimation problem...

  1. New technology for using meteorological information in forest insect pest forecast and warning systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, Jiang-Lin; Yang, Xiu-Hao; Yang, Zhong-Wu; Luo, Ji-Tong; Lei, Xiu-Feng

    2017-12-01

    Near surface air temperature and rainfall are major weather factors affecting forest insect dynamics. The recent developments in remote sensing retrieval and geographic information system spatial analysis techniques enable the utilization of weather factors to significantly enhance forest pest forecasting and warning systems. The current study focused on building forest pest digital data structures as a platform of correlation analysis between weather conditions and forest pest dynamics for better pest forecasting and warning systems using the new technologies. The study dataset contained 3 353 425 small polygons with 174 defined attributes covering 95 counties of Guangxi province of China currently registering 292 forest pest species. Field data acquisition and information transfer systems were established with four software licences that provided 15-fold improvement compared to the systems currently used in China. Nine technical specifications were established including codes of forest districts, pest species and host tree species, and standard practices of forest pest monitoring and information management. Attributes can easily be searched using ArcGIS9.3 and/or the free QGIS2.16 software. Small polygons with pest relevant attributes are a new tool of precision farming and detailed forest insect pest management that are technologically advanced. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

  2. Past speculations of future health technologies: a description of technologies predicted in 15 forecasting studies published between 1986 and 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doos, Lucy; Packer, Claire; Ward, Derek; Simpson, Sue; Stevens, Andrew

    2017-07-31

    To describe and classify health technologies predicted in forecasting studies. A portrait describing health technologies predicted in 15 forecasting studies published between 1986 and 2010 that were identified in a previous systematic review. Health technologies are classified according to their type, purpose and clinical use; relating these to the original purpose and timing of the forecasting studies. All health-related technologies predicted in 15 forecasting studies identified in a previously published systematic review. Outcomes related to (1) each forecasting study including country, year, intention and forecasting methods used and (2) the predicted technologies including technology type, purpose, targeted clinical area and forecast timeframe. Of the 896 identified health-related technologies, 685 (76.5%) were health technologies with an explicit or implied health application and included in our study. Of these, 19.1% were diagnostic or imaging tests, 14.3% devices or biomaterials, 12.6% information technology systems, eHealth or mHealth and 12% drugs. The majority of the technologies were intended to treat or manage disease (38.1%) or diagnose or monitor disease (26.1%). The most frequent targeted clinical areas were infectious diseases followed by cancer, circulatory and nervous system disorders. The most frequent technology types were for: infectious diseases-prophylactic vaccines (45.8%), cancer-drugs (40%), circulatory disease-devices and biomaterials (26.3%), and diseases of the nervous system-equally devices and biomaterials (25%) and regenerative medicine (25%). The mean timeframe for forecasting was 11.6 years (range 0-33 years, median=10, SD=6.6). The forecasting timeframe significantly differed by technology type (p=0.002), the intent of the forecasting group (p<0.001) and the methods used (p<001). While description and classification of predicted health-related technologies is crucial in preparing healthcare systems for adopting new innovations

  3. Space power needs and forecasted technologies for the 1990s and beyond

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buden, D.; Albert, T.

    1987-01-01

    A new generation of reactors for electric power will be available for space missions to satisfy military and civilian needs in the 1990s and beyond. To ensure a useful product, nuclear power plant development must be cognizant of other space power technologies. Major advances in solar and chemical technologies need to be considered in establishing the goals of future nuclear power plants. In addition, the mission needs are evolving into new regimes. Civilian and military power needs are forecasted to exceed anything used in space to date. Technology trend forecasts have been mapped as a function of time for solar, nuclear, chemical, and storage systems to illustrate areas where each technology provides minimum mass. Other system characteristics may dominate the usefulness of a technology on a given mission. This paper will discuss some of these factors, as well as forecast future military and civilian power needs and the status of technologies for the 1990s and 2000s. 6 references

  4. Theory, technology, and technique of stochastic cooling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marriner, J.

    1993-10-01

    The theory and technological implementation of stochastic cooling is described. Theoretical and technological limitations are discussed. Data from existing stochastic cooling systems are shown to illustrate some useful techniques

  5. Nuclear techniques and new technology revolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Yongxian; Qian Junlong; Yang Fujia

    1990-01-01

    As a high technique, nuclear techniques play specific roles in the new technological revolution. Technological developments have been enhanced by a number of nuclear techniques, such as industrial applications of computed tomography systems in non-destructive inspections and tests, ion implantation in electronical device manufacturing, analytial nuclear techniques in elemental and sub-surface analysis, nuclear logging in surveying energy resources and radiation processing in developing new polymeric materials

  6. MAG4 versus alternative techniques for forecasting active region flare productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falconer, David A; Moore, Ronald L; Barghouty, Abdulnasser F; Khazanov, Igor

    2014-01-01

    MAG4 is a technique of forecasting an active region's rate of production of major flares in the coming few days from a free magnetic energy proxy. We present a statistical method of measuring the difference in performance between MAG4 and comparable alternative techniques that forecast an active region's major-flare productivity from alternative observed aspects of the active region. We demonstrate the method by measuring the difference in performance between the “Present MAG4” technique and each of three alternative techniques, called “McIntosh Active-Region Class,” “Total Magnetic Flux,” and “Next MAG4.” We do this by using (1) the MAG4 database of magnetograms and major flare histories of sunspot active regions, (2) the NOAA table of the major-flare productivity of each of 60 McIntosh active-region classes of sunspot active regions, and (3) five technique performance metrics (Heidke Skill Score, True Skill Score, Percent Correct, Probability of Detection, and False Alarm Rate) evaluated from 2000 random two-by-two contingency tables obtained from the databases. We find that (1) Present MAG4 far outperforms both McIntosh Active-Region Class and Total Magnetic Flux, (2) Next MAG4 significantly outperforms Present MAG4, (3) the performance of Next MAG4 is insensitive to the forward and backward temporal windows used, in the range of one to a few days, and (4) forecasting from the free-energy proxy in combination with either any broad category of McIntosh active-region classes or any Mount Wilson active-region class gives no significant performance improvement over forecasting from the free-energy proxy alone (Present MAG4). Key Points Quantitative comparison of performance of pairs of forecasting techniques Next MAG4 forecasts major flares more accurately than Present MAG4 Present MAG4 forecast outperforms McIntosh AR Class and total magnetic flux PMID:26213517

  7. Probabilistic forecasts of near-term climate change based on a resampling ensemble technique

    OpenAIRE

    Räisänen, J.; Ruokolainen, L.

    2006-01-01

    Probabilistic forecasts of near-term climate change are derived by using a multimodel ensemble of climate change simulations and a simple resampling technique that increases the number of realizations for the possible combination of anthropogenic climate change and internal climate variability. The technique is based on the assumption that the probability distribution of local climate changes is only a function of the all-model mean global average warming. Although this is unlikely to be exac...

  8. Bidding strategy with forecast technology based on support vector machine in the electricity market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Ciwei; Bompard, Ettore; Napoli, Roberto; Wan, Qiulan; Zhou, Jian

    2008-06-01

    The participants in the electricity market are concerned very much with the market price evolution. Various technologies have been developed for price forecasting. The SVM (Support Vector Machine) has shown its good performance in market price forecasting. Two approaches for forming the market bidding strategies based on SVM are proposed. One is based on the price forecasting accuracy, with which the rejection risk is defined. The other takes into account the impact of the producer’s own bid. The risks associated with the bidding are controlled by the parameter settings. The proposed approaches have been tested on a numerical example.

  9. Forecasting performance of three automated modelling techniques during the economic crisis 2007-2009

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kock, Anders Bredahl; Teräsvirta, Timo

    In this work we consider forecasting macroeconomic variables during an economic crisis. The focus is on a speci…c class of models, the so-called single hidden-layer feedforward autoregressive neural network models. What makes these models interesting in the present context is that they form a class...... during the economic crisis 2007–2009. Forecast accuracy is measured by the root mean square forecast error. Hypothesis testing is also used to compare the performance of the different techniques with each other....... of universal approximators and may be expected to work well during exceptional periods such as major economic crises. These models are often difficult to estimate, and we follow the idea of White (2006) to transform the speci…cation and nonlinear estimation problem into a linear model selection and estimation...

  10. Super-ensemble techniques applied to wave forecast: performance and limitations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Lenartz

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, several operational ocean wave forecasts are available for a same region. These predictions may considerably differ, and to choose the best one is generally a difficult task. The super-ensemble approach, which consists in merging different forecasts and past observations into a single multi-model prediction system, is evaluated in this study. During the DART06 campaigns organized by the NATO Undersea Research Centre, four wave forecasting systems were simultaneously run in the Adriatic Sea, and significant wave height was measured at six stations as well as along the tracks of two remote sensors. This effort provided the necessary data set to compare the skills of various multi-model combination techniques. Our results indicate that a super-ensemble based on the Kalman Filter improves the forecast skills: The bias during both the hindcast and forecast periods is reduced, and the correlation coefficient is similar to that of the best individual model. The spatial extrapolation of local results is not straightforward and requires further investigation to be properly implemented.

  11. Day-ahead price forecasting of electricity markets by a new feature selection algorithm and cascaded neural network technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amjady, Nima; Keynia, Farshid

    2009-01-01

    With the introduction of restructuring into the electric power industry, the price of electricity has become the focus of all activities in the power market. Electricity price forecast is key information for electricity market managers and participants. However, electricity price is a complex signal due to its non-linear, non-stationary, and time variant behavior. In spite of performed research in this area, more accurate and robust price forecast methods are still required. In this paper, a new forecast strategy is proposed for day-ahead price forecasting of electricity markets. Our forecast strategy is composed of a new two stage feature selection technique and cascaded neural networks. The proposed feature selection technique comprises modified Relief algorithm for the first stage and correlation analysis for the second stage. The modified Relief algorithm selects candidate inputs with maximum relevancy with the target variable. Then among the selected candidates, the correlation analysis eliminates redundant inputs. Selected features by the two stage feature selection technique are used for the forecast engine, which is composed of 24 consecutive forecasters. Each of these 24 forecasters is a neural network allocated to predict the price of 1 h of the next day. The whole proposed forecast strategy is examined on the Spanish and Australia's National Electricity Markets Management Company (NEMMCO) and compared with some of the most recent price forecast methods. (author)

  12. Forecasting of rainfall using ocean-atmospheric indices with a fuzzy neural technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srivastava, Gaurav; Panda, Sudhindra N.; Mondal, Pratap; Liu, Junguo

    2010-12-01

    SummaryForecasting of rainfall is imperative for rainfed agriculture of arid and semi-arid regions of the world where agriculture consumes nearly 80% of the total water demand. Fuzzy-Ranking Algorithm (FRA) is used to identify the significant input variables for rainfall forecast. A case study is carried out to forecast monthly rainfall in India with several ocean-atmospheric predictor variables. Three different scenarios of ocean-atmospheric predictor variables are used as a set of possible input variables for rainfall forecasting model: (1) two climate indices, i.e. Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index (PDOI); (2) Sea Surface Temperature anomalies (SSTa) in the 5° × 5° grid points in Indian Ocean; and (3) both the climate indices and SSTa. To generate a set of possible input variables for these scenarios, we use climatic indices and the SSTa data with different lags between 1 and 12 months. Nonlinear relationship between identified inputs and rainfall is captured with an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) technique. A new approach based on fuzzy c-mean clustering is proposed for dividing data into representative subsets for training, testing, and validation. The results show that this proposed approach overcomes the difficulty in determining optimal numbers of clusters associated with the data division technique of self-organized map. The ANN model developed with both the climate indices and SSTa shows the best performance for the forecast of the monthly August rainfall in India. Similar approach can be applied to forecast rainfall of any period at selected climatic regions of the world where significant relationship exists between the rainfall and climate indices.

  13. A Survey on Data Mining Techniques Applied to Electricity-Related Time Series Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Martínez-Álvarez

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Data mining has become an essential tool during the last decade to analyze large sets of data. The variety of techniques it includes and the successful results obtained in many application fields, make this family of approaches powerful and widely used. In particular, this work explores the application of these techniques to time series forecasting. Although classical statistical-based methods provides reasonably good results, the result of the application of data mining outperforms those of classical ones. Hence, this work faces two main challenges: (i to provide a compact mathematical formulation of the mainly used techniques; (ii to review the latest works of time series forecasting and, as case study, those related to electricity price and demand markets.

  14. New Technology Trends in Education: Seven Years of Forecasts and Convergence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Sergio; Diaz, Gabriel; Sancristobal, Elio; Gil, Rosario; Castro, Manuel; Peire, Juan

    2011-01-01

    Each year since 2004, a new Horizon Report has been released. Each edition attempts to forecast the most promising technologies likely to impact on education along three horizons: the short term (the year of the report), the mid-term (the next 2 years) and the long term (the next 4 years). This paper analyzes the evolution of technology trends…

  15. PATTERNS OF SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT AND THEIR USE IN FORECASTING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. I. Komkov

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In article laws of scientifically-technological development are considered. Their number concern traditional, base and new, formed. Possibilities and ways of the account of the listed laws are shown at forecasting of prospects of scientifically-technological development.

  16. Processing techniques applying laser technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamada, Yuji; Makino Yoshinobu

    2000-01-01

    The requirements for the processing of nuclear energy equipment include high precision, low distortion, and low heat input. Toshiba has developed laser processing techniques for cutting, welding, and surface heat treatment of nuclear energy equipment because the zone affected by distortion and heat in laser processing is very small. Laser processing contributes to the manufacturing of high-quality and high-reliability equipment and reduces the manufacturing period. (author)

  17. A new wind speed forecasting strategy based on the chaotic time series modelling technique and the Apriori algorithm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo, Zhenhai; Chi, Dezhong; Wu, Jie; Zhang, Wenyu

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Impact of meteorological factors on wind speed forecasting is taken into account. • Forecasted wind speed results are corrected by the associated rules. • Forecasting accuracy is improved by the new wind speed forecasting strategy. • Robust of the proposed model is validated by data sampled from different sites. - Abstract: Wind energy has been the fastest growing renewable energy resource in recent years. Because of the intermittent nature of wind, wind power is a fluctuating source of electrical energy. Therefore, to minimize the impact of wind power on the electrical grid, accurate and reliable wind power forecasting is mandatory. In this paper, a new wind speed forecasting approach based on based on the chaotic time series modelling technique and the Apriori algorithm has been developed. The new approach consists of four procedures: (I) Clustering by using the k-means clustering approach; (II) Employing the Apriori algorithm to discover the association rules; (III) Forecasting the wind speed according to the chaotic time series forecasting model; and (IV) Correcting the forecasted wind speed data using the associated rules discovered previously. This procedure has been verified by 31-day-ahead daily average wind speed forecasting case studies, which employed the wind speed and other meteorological data collected from four meteorological stations located in the Hexi Corridor area of China. The results of these case studies reveal that the chaotic forecasting model can efficiently improve the accuracy of the wind speed forecasting, and the Apriori algorithm can effectively discover the association rules between the wind speed and other meteorological factors. In addition, the correction results demonstrate that the association rules discovered by the Apriori algorithm have powerful capacities in handling the forecasted wind speed values correction when the forecasted values do not match the classification discovered by the association rules

  18. Heap Leaching: Modelling and Forecasting Using CFD Technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diane McBride

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Heap leach operations typically employ some form of modelling and forecasting tools to predict cash flow margins and project viability. However, these vary from simple spreadsheets to phenomenological models, with more complex models not commonly employed as they require the greatest amount of time and effort. Yet, accurate production modelling and forecasting are essential for managing production and potentially critical for successful operation of a complex heap, time and effort spent in setting up modelling tools initially may increase profitability in the long term. A brief overview of various modelling approaches is presented, but this paper focuses on the capabilities of a computational fluid dynamics (CFD model. Advances in computational capability allow for complex CFD models, coupled with leach kinetic models, to be applied to complex ore bodies. In this paper a comprehensive hydrodynamic CFD model is described and applied to chalcopyrite dissolution under heap operating conditions. The model is parameterized against experimental data and validated against a range of experimental leach tests under different thermal conditions. A three-dimensional ‘virtual’ heap, under fluctuating meteorological conditions, is simulated. Continuous and intermittent irrigation is investigated, showing copper recovery per unit volume of applied leach solution to be slightly increased for pulse irrigation.

  19. Water temperature forecasting and estimation using fourier series and communication theory techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Long, L.L.

    1976-01-01

    Fourier series and statistical communication theory techniques are utilized in the estimation of river water temperature increases caused by external thermal inputs. An example estimate assuming a constant thermal input is demonstrated. A regression fit of the Fourier series approximation of temperature is then used to forecast daily average water temperatures. Also, a 60-day prediction of daily average water temperature is made with the aid of the Fourier regression fit by using significant Fourier components

  20. Comparing univariate techniques for tender price index forecasting: Box-Jenkins and neural network model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olalekan Oshodi

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The poor performance of projects is a recurring event in the construction sector. Information gleaned from literature shows that uncertainty in project cost is one of the significant causes of this problem. Reliable forecast of construction cost is useful in mitigating the adverse effect of its fluctuation, however the availability of data for the development of multivariate models for construction cost forecasting remains a challenge. The study seeks to investigate the reliability of using univariate models for tender price index forecasting. Box-Jenkins and neural network are the modelling techniques applied in this study. The results show that the neural network model outperforms the Box-Jenkins model, in terms of accuracy. In addition, the neural network model provides a reliable forecast of tender price index over a period of 12 quarters ahead. The limitations of using the univariate models are elaborated. The developed neural network model can be used by stakeholders as a tool for predicting the movements in tender price index. In addition, the univariate models developed in the present study are particularly useful in countries where limited data reduces the possibility of applying multivariate models.

  1. Past speculations of the future: a review of the methods used for forecasting emerging health technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doos, Lucy; Packer, Claire; Ward, Derek; Simpson, Sue; Stevens, Andrew

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Forecasting can support rational decision-making around the introduction and use of emerging health technologies and prevent investment in technologies that have limited long-term potential. However, forecasting methods need to be credible. We performed a systematic search to identify the methods used in forecasting studies to predict future health technologies within a 3–20-year timeframe. Identification and retrospective assessment of such methods potentially offer a route to more reliable prediction. Design Systematic search of the literature to identify studies reported on methods of forecasting in healthcare. Participants People are not needed in this study. Data sources The authors searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsychINFO and grey literature sources, and included articles published in English that reported their methods and a list of identified technologies. Main outcome measure Studies reporting methods used to predict future health technologies within a 3–20-year timeframe with an identified list of individual healthcare technologies. Commercially sponsored reviews, long-term futurology studies (with over 20-year timeframes) and speculative editorials were excluded. Results 15 studies met our inclusion criteria. Our results showed that the majority of studies (13/15) consulted experts either alone or in combination with other methods such as literature searching. Only 2 studies used more complex forecasting tools such as scenario building. Conclusions The methodological fundamentals of formal 3–20-year prediction are consistent but vary in details. Further research needs to be conducted to ascertain if the predictions made were accurate and whether accuracy varies by the methods used or by the types of technologies identified. PMID:26966060

  2. Improved Satellite Techniques for Monitoring and Forecasting the Transition of Hurricanes to Extratropical Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Folmer, Michael; Halverson, Jeffrey; Berndt, Emily; Dunion, Jason; Goodman, Steve; Goldberg, Mitch

    2014-01-01

    The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites R-Series (GOES-R) and Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) Satellite Proving Grounds have introduced multiple proxy and operational products into operations over the last few years. Some of these products have proven to be useful in current operations at various National Weather Service (NWS) offices and national centers as a first look at future satellite capabilities. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Ocean Prediction Center (OPC), NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) and the NASA Hurricane and Severe Storms Sentinel (HS3) field campaign have had access to a few of these products to assist in monitoring extratropical transitions of hurricanes. The red, green, blue (RGB) Air Mass product provides forecasters with an enhanced view of various air masses in one complete image to help differentiate between possible stratospheric/tropospheric interactions, moist tropical air masses, and cool, continental/maritime air masses. As a compliment to this product, a new Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) Ozone product was introduced in the past year to assist in diagnosing the dry air intrusions seen in the RGB Air Mass product. Finally, a lightning density product was introduced to forecasters as a precursor to the new Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) that will be housed on GOES-R, to monitor the most active regions of convection, which might indicate a disruption in the tropical environment and even signal the onset of extratropical transition. This presentation will focus on a few case studies that exhibit extratropical transition and point out the usefulness of these new satellite techniques in aiding forecasters forecast these challenging events.

  3. Hybrid machine learning technique for forecasting Dhaka stock market timing decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banik, Shipra; Khodadad Khan, A F M; Anwer, Mohammad

    2014-01-01

    Forecasting stock market has been a difficult job for applied researchers owing to nature of facts which is very noisy and time varying. However, this hypothesis has been featured by several empirical experiential studies and a number of researchers have efficiently applied machine learning techniques to forecast stock market. This paper studied stock prediction for the use of investors. It is always true that investors typically obtain loss because of uncertain investment purposes and unsighted assets. This paper proposes a rough set model, a neural network model, and a hybrid neural network and rough set model to find optimal buy and sell of a share on Dhaka stock exchange. Investigational findings demonstrate that our proposed hybrid model has higher precision than the single rough set model and the neural network model. We believe this paper findings will help stock investors to decide about optimal buy and/or sell time on Dhaka stock exchange.

  4. Univariate and multivariate forecasting of hourly solar radiation with artificial intelligence techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sfetsos, A. [7 Pirsou Str., Athens (Greece); Coonick, A.H. [Imperial Coll. of Science Technology and Medicine, Dept. of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, London (United Kingdom)

    2000-07-01

    This paper introduces a new approach for the forecasting of mean hourly global solar radiation received by a horizontal surface. In addition to the traditional linear methods, several artificial-intelligence-based techniques are studied. These include linear, feed-forward, recurrent Elman and Radial Basis neural networks alongside the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference scheme. The problem is examined initially for the univariate case, and is extended to include additional meteorological parameters in the process of estimating the optimum model. The results indicate that the developed artificial intelligence models predict the solar radiation time series more effectively compared to the conventional procedures based on the clearness index. The forecasting ability of some models can be further enhanced with the use of additional meteorological parameters. (Author)

  5. New Techniques for Real-Time Stage Forecasting for Tributaries in the Nashville Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charley, W.; Moran, B.; LaRosa, J.

    2011-12-01

    On Saturday, May 1, 2010, heavy rain began falling in the Cumberland River Valley, Tennessee, and continued through the following day. 13.5 inches was measured at Nashville, an unprecedented amount that doubled the previous 2-day record, and exceeded the May monthly total record of 11 inches. Elsewhere in the valley, amounts of over 19 inches were measured. This intensity of rainfall quickly overwhelmed tributaries to the Cumberland in the Nashville area, causing wide-spread and serious flooding. Tractor-trailers and houses were seen floating down Mill Creek, a primary tributary in the south eastern area of Nashville. Twenty-six people died and over 2 billion dollars in damage occurred as a result of the flood. Since that time, several other significant rainfall events have occurred in the area. As a result of the flood, agencies in the Nashville area want better capabilities to forecast stages for the local tributaries. Better stage forecasting will help local agencies close roads, evacuate homes and businesses and similar actions. An interagency group, consisting of Metro Nashville Water Services and Office of Emergency Management, the National Weather Service, the US Geological Survey and the US Army Corps of Engineers, has been established to seek ways to better forecast short-term events in the region. It should be noted that the National Weather Service has the official responsibility of forecasting stages. This paper examines techniques and algorithms that are being developed to meet this need and the practical aspects of integrating them into a usable product that can quickly and accurately forecast stages in the short-time frame of the tributaries. This includes not only the forecasting procedure, but also the procedure to acquire the latest precipitation and stage data to make the forecasts. These procedures are integrated into the program HEC-RTS, the US Army Corps of Engineers Real-Time Simulation program. HEC-RTS is a Java-based integration tool that

  6. A hybrid method based on a new clustering technique and multilayer perceptron neural networks for hourly solar radiation forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azimi, R.; Ghayekhloo, M.; Ghofrani, M.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A novel clustering approach is proposed based on the data transformation approach. • A novel cluster selection method based on correlation analysis is presented. • The proposed hybrid clustering approach leads to deep learning for MLPNN. • A hybrid forecasting method is developed to predict solar radiations. • The evaluation results show superior performance of the proposed forecasting model. - Abstract: Accurate forecasting of renewable energy sources plays a key role in their integration into the grid. This paper proposes a hybrid solar irradiance forecasting framework using a Transformation based K-means algorithm, named TB K-means, to increase the forecast accuracy. The proposed clustering method is a combination of a new initialization technique, K-means algorithm and a new gradual data transformation approach. Unlike the other K-means based clustering methods which are not capable of providing a fixed and definitive answer due to the selection of different cluster centroids for each run, the proposed clustering provides constant results for different runs of the algorithm. The proposed clustering is combined with a time-series analysis, a novel cluster selection algorithm and a multilayer perceptron neural network (MLPNN) to develop the hybrid solar radiation forecasting method for different time horizons (1 h ahead, 2 h ahead, …, 48 h ahead). The performance of the proposed TB K-means clustering is evaluated using several different datasets and compared with different variants of K-means algorithm. Solar datasets with different solar radiation characteristics are also used to determine the accuracy and processing speed of the developed forecasting method with the proposed TB K-means and other clustering techniques. The results of direct comparison with other well-established forecasting models demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed hybrid forecasting method. Furthermore, a comparative analysis with the benchmark solar

  7. Techniques for water demand analysis and forecasting: Puerto Rico, a case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attanasi, E.D.; Close, E.R.; Lopez, M.A.

    1975-01-01

    The rapid economic growth of the Commonwealth-of Puerto Rico since 1947 has brought public pressure on Government agencies for rapid development of public water supply and waste treatment facilities. Since 1945 the Puerto Rico Aqueduct and Sewer Authority has had the responsibility for planning, developing and operating water supply and waste treatment facilities on a municipal basis. The purpose of this study was to develop operational techniques whereby a planning agency, such as the Puerto Rico Aqueduct and Sewer Authority, could project the temporal and spatial distribution of .future water demands. This report is part of a 2-year cooperative study between the U.S. Geological Survey and the Environmental Quality Board of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, for the development of systems analysis techniques for use in water resources planning. While the Commonwealth was assisted in the development of techniques to facilitate ongoing planning, the U.S. Geological Survey attempted to gain insights in order to better interface its data collection efforts with the planning process. The report reviews the institutional structure associated with water resources planning for the Commonwealth. A brief description of alternative water demand forecasting procedures is presented and specific techniques and analyses of Puerto Rico demand data are discussed. Water demand models for a specific area of Puerto Rico are then developed. These models provide a framework for making several sets of water demand forecasts based on alternative economic and demographic assumptions. In the second part of this report, the historical impact of water resources investment on regional economic development is analyzed and related to water demand .forecasting. Conclusions and future data needs are in the last section.

  8. National forecast for geothermal resource exploration and development with techniques for policy analysis and resource assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cassel, T.A.V.; Shimamoto, G.T.; Amundsen, C.B.; Blair, P.D.; Finan, W.F.; Smith, M.R.; Edeistein, R.H.

    1982-03-31

    The backgrund, structure and use of modern forecasting methods for estimating the future development of geothermal energy in the United States are documented. The forecasting instrument may be divided into two sequential submodels. The first predicts the timing and quality of future geothermal resource discoveries from an underlying resource base. This resource base represents an expansion of the widely-publicized USGS Circular 790. The second submodel forecasts the rate and extent of utilization of geothermal resource discoveries. It is based on the joint investment behavior of resource developers and potential users as statistically determined from extensive industry interviews. It is concluded that geothermal resource development, especially for electric power development, will play an increasingly significant role in meeting US energy demands over the next 2 decades. Depending on the extent of R and D achievements in related areas of geosciences and technology, expected geothermal power development will reach between 7700 and 17300 Mwe by the year 2000. This represents between 8 and 18% of the expected electric energy demand (GWh) in western and northwestern states.

  9. Evaluating machine-learning techniques for recruitment forecasting of seven North East Atlantic fish species

    KAUST Repository

    Fernandes, José Antonio

    2015-01-01

    The effect of different factors (spawning biomass, environmental conditions) on recruitment is a subject of great importance in the management of fisheries, recovery plans and scenario exploration. In this study, recently proposed supervised classification techniques, tested by the machine-learning community, are applied to forecast the recruitment of seven fish species of North East Atlantic (anchovy, sardine, mackerel, horse mackerel, hake, blue whiting and albacore), using spawning, environmental and climatic data. In addition, the use of the probabilistic flexible naive Bayes classifier (FNBC) is proposed as modelling approach in order to reduce uncertainty for fisheries management purposes. Those improvements aim is to improve probability estimations of each possible outcome (low, medium and high recruitment) based in kernel density estimation, which is crucial for informed management decision making with high uncertainty. Finally, a comparison between goodness-of-fit and generalization power is provided, in order to assess the reliability of the final forecasting models. It is found that in most cases the proposed methodology provides useful information for management whereas the case of horse mackerel is an example of the limitations of the approach. The proposed improvements allow for a better probabilistic estimation of the different scenarios, i.e. to reduce the uncertainty in the provided forecasts.

  10. Development and Testing of Operational Dual-Polarimetric Radar Based Lightning Initiation Forecast Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodard, Crystal; Carey, Lawrence D.; Petersen, Walter A.; Felix, Mariana; Roeder, William P.

    2011-01-01

    Lightning is one of Earth s natural dangers, destructive not only to life but also physical property. According to the National Weather Service, there are on average 58 lightning fatalities each year, with over 300 related injuries (NWS 2010). The ability to forecast lightning is critical to a host of activities ranging from space vehicle launch operations to recreational sporting events. For example a single lightning strike to a Space Shuttle could cause billions of dollars of damage and possible loss of life. While forecasting that provides longer lead times could provide sporting officials with more time to respond to possible threatening weather events, thus saving the lives of player and bystanders. Many researchers have developed and tested different methods and tools of first flash forecasting, however few have done so using dual-polarimetric radar variables and products on an operational basis. The purpose of this study is to improve algorithms for the short-term prediction of lightning initiation through development and testing of operational techniques that rely on parameters observed and diagnosed using C-band dual-polarimetric radar.

  11. Day-ahead electricity prices forecasting by a modified CGSA technique and hybrid WT in LSSVM based scheme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shayeghi, H.; Ghasemi, A.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Presenting a hybrid CGSA-LSSVM scheme for price forecasting. • Considering uncertainties for filtering in input data and feature selection to improve efficiency. • Using DWT input featured LSSVM approach to classify next-week prices. • Used three real markets to illustrate performance of the proposed price forecasting model. - Abstract: At the present time, day-ahead electricity market is closely associated with other commodity markets such as fuel market and emission market. Under such an environment, day-ahead electricity price forecasting has become necessary for power producers and consumers in the current deregulated electricity markets. Seeking for more accurate price forecasting techniques, this paper proposes a new combination of a Feature Selection (FS) technique based mutual information (MI) technique and Wavelet Transform (WT) in this study. Moreover, in this paper a new modified version of Gravitational Search Algorithm (GSA) optimization based chaos theory, namely Chaotic Gravitational Search Algorithm (CGSA) is developed to find the optimal parameters of Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM) to predict electricity prices. The performance and price forecast accuracy of the proposed technique is assessed by means of real data from Iran’s, Ontario’s and Spain’s price markets. The simulation results from numerical tables and figures in different cases show that the proposed technique increases electricity price market forecasting accuracy than the other classical and heretical methods in the scientific researches

  12. Techniques and technologies to maximize mucosal exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moons, Leon M G; Gralnek, Ian M; Siersema, Peter D

    2015-04-01

    Performing high-quality colonoscopy is one of the important goals of gastroenterology practices and requires achieving a high level of bowel cleansing, performing good and safe polypectomy, and detecting all polyps present in the colon. This article summarizes currently available techniques and technologies to maximize mucosal visualization. Several maneuvers can be applied during insertion and withdrawal of the colonoscope to optimize mucosal visualization and decrease the number of missed polyps. Newly developed technologies support the endoscopist in the detection of polyps. Each technique is reviewed, with emphasis on the impact on colorectal polyp detection. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Superhydrophobic Materials Technology-PVC Bonding Techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hunter, Scott R. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory; Efird, Marty [VeloxFlow, LLC

    2013-05-03

    The purpose of the technology maturation project was to develop an enhanced application technique for applying diatomaceous earth with pinned polysiloxane oil to PVC pipes and materials. The oil infiltration technique is applied as a spray of diluted oil in a solvent onto the superhydrophobic diatomaceous earth substrate. This makes the surface take on the following characteristics: wet-cleanable; anti-biofouling; waterproof; and anti-corrosion. The project involved obtaining input and supplies from VeloxFlow and the development of successful techniques that would quickly result in a commercial license agreement with VeloxFlow and other companies that use PVC materials in a variety of other fields of use.

  14. Short-Term Forecasting Models for Photovoltaic Plants: Analytical versus Soft-Computing Techniques

    OpenAIRE

    Monteiro, Claudio; Fernandez-Jimenez, L. Alfredo; Ramirez-Rosado, Ignacio J.; Muñoz-Jimenez, Andres; Lara-Santillan, Pedro M.

    2013-01-01

    We present and compare two short-term statistical forecasting models for hourly average electric power production forecasts of photovoltaic (PV) plants: the analytical PV power forecasting model (APVF) and the multiplayer perceptron PV forecasting model (MPVF). Both models use forecasts from numerical weather prediction (NWP) tools at the location of the PV plant as well as the past recorded values of PV hourly electric power production. The APVF model consists of an original modeling for adj...

  15. Wood Technology: Techniques, Processes, and Products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oatman, Olan

    1975-01-01

    Seven areas of wood technology illustrates applicable techniques, processes, and products for an industrial arts woodworking curriculum. They are: wood lamination; PEG (polyethylene glycol) diffusion processes; wood flour and/or particle molding; production product of industry; WPC (wood-plastic-composition) process; residential construction; and…

  16. Testing the data assimilation technique for short-term wind forecast in the PBL: a case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avolio, E.; Federico, S.; Sempreviva, A. M.; Calidonna, C. R.; Courtney, M.

    2012-04-01

    In this contribution we show the results of using a data assimilation technique to improve the short-term wind forecast at a site in northern Europe. The assimilation technique is a simple four-dimensional nudging and, for this purpose, we set-up a version of the Regional Atmospheric Modelling System. The nudging technique consists of adding an extra-tendency term, to the prognostic equations of the zonal and meridional wind components, which forces the variable toward the observations. dφm- (φobs -φm-) dt = τ f(r) (1) where φmis model variable (zonal or meridional wind component), φobs is the observation, τ is relaxation time scale (900 s), f(r) is a Gaussian function f(r) = e0-(r/r)Λ2 , and r0=50 km. The method was applied in Denmark where suitable observations were available at the Danish National Test Station for Large Wind Turbines, located at Høvsøre (Western Jutland, Denmark), and refer to the measurements of vertical wind profiles; the instrument is the WINDCUBE Doppler LIDAR. Data were available every 10 minutes at the following levels: 40 m, 60 m, 80 m, 100 m, 116 m, 130 m, 160 m, 200 m, 250 m and 300 m. The data represent the average of the measurement for the previous 10 minutes. Only data available at the 00 minutes of each hour were considered in this study. The RAMS model is set-up with four nested grids. The fourth grid has 1 km horizontal resolution and is centred over the site. Model levels do not coincide with the measurement levels, and, to assimilate and to verify the forecast, the observations were linearly interpolated to the model levels. The physical configuration of the model is the one adopted for operational forecast over the Calabria Region in South Italy. In order to show the potential impact of the nudging technique, we run the model in two different configurations: (a) a simple forecast and (b) an analysis-forecast run. The runs duration is twenty-four hours for both configurations. For each configuration, simulations were

  17. Skill Assessment of An Hybrid Technique To Estimate Quantitative Precipitation Forecast For Galicia (nw Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lage, A.; Taboada, J. J.

    Precipitation is the most obvious of the weather elements in its effects on normal life. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) is generally used to produce quantitative precip- itation forecast (QPF) beyond the 1-3 h time frame. These models often fail to predict small-scale variations of rain because of spin-up problems and their coarse spatial and temporal resolution (Antolik, 2000). Moreover, there are some uncertainties about the behaviour of the NWP models in extreme situations (de Bruijn and Brandsma, 2000). Hybrid techniques, combining the benefits of NWP and statistical approaches in a flexible way, are very useful to achieve a good QPF. In this work, a new technique of QPF for Galicia (NW of Spain) is presented. This region has a percentage of rainy days per year greater than 50% with quantities that may cause floods, with human and economical damages. The technique is composed of a NWP model (ARPS) and a statistical downscaling process based on an automated classification scheme of at- mospheric circulation patterns for the Iberian Peninsula (J. Ribalaygua and R. Boren, 1995). Results show that QPF for Galicia is improved using this hybrid technique. [1] Antolik, M.S. 2000 "An Overview of the National Weather Service's centralized statistical quantitative precipitation forecasts". Journal of Hydrology, 239, pp:306- 337. [2] de Bruijn, E.I.F and T. Brandsma "Rainfall prediction for a flooding event in Ireland caused by the remnants of Hurricane Charley". Journal of Hydrology, 239, pp:148-161. [3] Ribalaygua, J. and Boren R. "Clasificación de patrones espaciales de precipitación diaria sobre la España Peninsular". Informes N 3 y 4 del Servicio de Análisis e Investigación del Clima. Instituto Nacional de Meteorología. Madrid. 53 pp.

  18. PRINTING TECHNIQUES: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN PHARMACEUTICAL TECHNOLOGY.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamroz, Witold; Kurek, Mateusz; Lyszczarz, Ewelina; Brniak, Witold; Jachowicz, Renata

    2017-05-01

    In the last few years there has been a huge progress in a development of printing techniques and their application in pharmaceutical sciences and particularly in the pharmaceutical technology. The variety of printing methods makes it necessary to systemize them, explain the principles of operation, and specify the possibilities of their use in pharmaceutical technology. This paper aims to review the printing techniques used in a drug development process. The growing interest in 2D and 3D printing methods results in continuously increasing number of scientific papers. Introduction of the first printed drug Spritam@ to the market seems to be a milestone of the 3D printing development. Thus, a particular aim of this review is to show the latest achievements of the researchers in the field of the printing medicines.

  19. Improving the performance of streamflow forecasting model using data-preprocessing technique in Dungun River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khai Tiu, Ervin Shan; Huang, Yuk Feng; Ling, Lloyd

    2018-03-01

    An accurate streamflow forecasting model is important for the development of flood mitigation plan as to ensure sustainable development for a river basin. This study adopted Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) data-preprocessing technique to process and denoise the rainfall data before putting into the Support Vector Machine (SVM) streamflow forecasting model in order to improve the performance of the selected model. Rainfall data and river water level data for the period of 1996-2016 were used for this purpose. Homogeneity tests (Standard Normal Homogeneity Test, the Buishand Range Test, the Pettitt Test and the Von Neumann Ratio Test) and normality tests (Shapiro-Wilk Test, Anderson-Darling Test, Lilliefors Test and Jarque-Bera Test) had been carried out on the rainfall series. Homogenous and non-normally distributed data were found in all the stations, respectively. From the recorded rainfall data, it was observed that Dungun River Basin possessed higher monthly rainfall from November to February, which was during the Northeast Monsoon. Thus, the monthly and seasonal rainfall series of this monsoon would be the main focus for this research as floods usually happen during the Northeast Monsoon period. The predicted water levels from SVM model were assessed with the observed water level using non-parametric statistical tests (Biased Method, Kendall's Tau B Test and Spearman's Rho Test).

  20. Unsatisfying forecast of a Mediterranean cyclone: a verification study employing state-of-the-art techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casaioli, M.; Mariani, S.; Accadia, C.; Tartaglione, N.; Speranza, A.; Lavagnini, A.; Bolliger, M.

    2006-09-01

    On 16-17 November 2000, a relatively intense precipitation event on the north-western Italy was heavily underestimated, mainly due to shifting error, by three operational 10-km limited area models (LAMs) which differ about basic equations, domain size, and parameterisation schemes. The scope of the work is to investigate possible common error-sources independent from the single model, in particular the effect of initialisation. Thus, the complex evolution over the western Mediterranean Sea of the cyclone responsible for the event was investigated. Several objective and subjective verification techniques have been employed to check one of the LAMs' forecast against the available observations (precipitation from rain gauge and retrieved from ground-based radar, and satellite-retrieved atmospheric humidity patterns). Despite a clear statement is not achieved, results indicate that high sensitivity to the initial conditions, and the inadequacy of the observational network on the southern Mediterranean area, can play a major role in producing the forecast shifting error on the target area.

  1. Unsatisfying forecast of a Mediterranean cyclone: a verification study employing state-of-the-art techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Casaioli

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available On 16–17 November 2000, a relatively intense precipitation event on the north-western Italy was heavily underestimated, mainly due to shifting error, by three operational 10-km limited area models (LAMs which differ about basic equations, domain size, and parameterisation schemes. The scope of the work is to investigate possible common error-sources independent from the single model, in particular the effect of initialisation. Thus, the complex evolution over the western Mediterranean Sea of the cyclone responsible for the event was investigated. Several objective and subjective verification techniques have been employed to check one of the LAMs' forecast against the available observations (precipitation from rain gauge and retrieved from ground-based radar, and satellite-retrieved atmospheric humidity patterns. Despite a clear statement is not achieved, results indicate that high sensitivity to the initial conditions, and the inadequacy of the observational network on the southern Mediterranean area, can play a major role in producing the forecast shifting error on the target area.

  2. Granulation techniques and technologies: recent progresses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shanmugam, Srinivasan

    2015-01-01

    Granulation, the process of particle enlargement by agglomeration technique, is one of the most significant unit operations in the production of pharmaceutical dosage forms, mostly tablets and capsules. Granulation process transforms fine powders into free-flowing, dust-free granules that are easy to compress. Nevertheless, granulation poses numerous challenges due to high quality requirement of the formed granules in terms of content uniformity and physicochemical properties such as granule size, bulk density, porosity, hardness, moisture, compressibility, etc. together with physical and chemical stability of the drug. Granulation process can be divided into two types: wet granulation that utilize a liquid in the process and dry granulation that requires no liquid. The type of process selection requires thorough knowledge of physicochemical properties of the drug, excipients, required flow and release properties, to name a few. Among currently available technologies, spray drying, roller compaction, high shear mixing, and fluid bed granulation are worth of note. Like any other scientific field, pharmaceutical granulation technology also continues to change, and arrival of novel and innovative technologies are inevitable. This review focuses on the recent progress in the granulation techniques and technologies such as pneumatic dry granulation, reverse wet granulation, steam granulation, moisture-activated dry granulation, thermal adhesion granulation, freeze granulation, and foamed binder or foam granulation. This review gives an overview of these with a short description about each development along with its significance and limitations.

  3. A bias-correction and downscaling technique for operational extended range forecasts based on self organizing map

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahai, A. K.; Borah, N.; Chattopadhyay, R.; Joseph, S.; Abhilash, S.

    2017-04-01

    If a coarse resolution dynamical model can well capture the large-scale patterns even if it has bias in smaller scales, the spatial information in smaller domains may also be retrievable. Based on this hypothesis a method has been proposed to downscale the dynamical model forecasts of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations in the extended range, and thus reduce the forecast spatial biases in smaller spatial scales. A hybrid of clustering and analog technique, used in a self organizing map (SOM)-based algorithm, is applied to correct the bias in the model predicted rainfall. The novelty of this method is that the bias correction and downscaling could be done at any resolution in which observation/reanalysis data is available and is independent of the model resolution in which forecast is generated. A set of composite pattern of rainfall is identified by clustering the high resolution observed rainfall using SOM. These set of composite patterns for the clustered days in each cluster centers or nodes are saved and the model forecasts for any day are compared with these patterns. The closest historical pattern is identified by calculating the minimum Euclidean distance between the model rainfall forecast and the observed clustered pattern and is termed as the bias corrected SOM-based post-processed forecast. The bias-corrected and the SOM-based reconstructed forecasts are shown to improve the annual cycle and the skill of deterministic as well as probabilistic forecasts. Usage of the high resolution observational data improves the spatial pattern for smaller domain as seen from a case study for the Mahanadi basin flood during September 2011. Thus, downscaling and bias correction are both achieved by this technique.

  4. Role of hybrid forecasting techniques for transportation planning of broiler meat under uncertain demand in thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thoranin Sujjaviriyasup

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available One of numerous problems experiencing in supply chain management is the demand. Most demands are appeared in terms of uncertainty. The broiler meat industry is inevitably encountering the same problem. In this research, hybrid forecasting model of ARIMA and Support Vector Machine (SVMs are developed to forecast broiler meat export. In addition, ARIMA, SVMs, and Moving Average (MA are chosen for comparing the forecasting efficiency. All the forecasting models are tested and validated using the data of Brazil’s export, Canada’s export, and Thailand’s export. The hybrid model provides accuracy of the forecasted values that are 98.71%, 97.50%, and 93.01%, respectively. In addition, the hybrid model presents the least error of all MAE, RMSE, and MAPE comparing with other forecasting models. As forecasted data are applied to transportation planning, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE of optimal value of forecasted value and actual value is 14.53%. The hybrid forecasting model shows an ability to reduce risk of total cost of transportation when broiler meat export is forecasted by using MA(2, MA(3, ARIMA, and SVM are 50.59%, 60.18%, 68.01%, and 46.55%, respectively. The results indicate that the developed forecasting model is recommended to broiler meat industries’ supply chain decision.

  5. Multivariate Time Series Forecasting of Crude Palm Oil Price Using Machine Learning Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanchymalay, Kasturi; Salim, N.; Sukprasert, Anupong; Krishnan, Ramesh; Raba'ah Hashim, Ummi

    2017-08-01

    The aim of this paper was to study the correlation between crude palm oil (CPO) price, selected vegetable oil prices (such as soybean oil, coconut oil, and olive oil, rapeseed oil and sunflower oil), crude oil and the monthly exchange rate. Comparative analysis was then performed on CPO price forecasting results using the machine learning techniques. Monthly CPO prices, selected vegetable oil prices, crude oil prices and monthly exchange rate data from January 1987 to February 2017 were utilized. Preliminary analysis showed a positive and high correlation between the CPO price and soy bean oil price and also between CPO price and crude oil price. Experiments were conducted using multi-layer perception, support vector regression and Holt Winter exponential smoothing techniques. The results were assessed by using criteria of root mean square error (RMSE), means absolute error (MAE), means absolute percentage error (MAPE) and Direction of accuracy (DA). Among these three techniques, support vector regression(SVR) with Sequential minimal optimization (SMO) algorithm showed relatively better results compared to multi-layer perceptron and Holt Winters exponential smoothing method.

  6. Novel technologies and techniques in bariatric surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Rafid; Azagury, Dan E

    2017-04-01

    Obesity has been on the rise globally and more people are now clinically obese than ever before in the US. This issue has a significant impact on both health and cost to healthcare systems. Bariatric surgery is efficacious in treatment of obesity but only in late stages of the disease, and there is a requirement for less invasive techniques/devices to treat obesity at earlier stages. Currently a number of these are either in clinical trials or have recently been approved by the Food and Drug Administration for weight loss. This review aims to give an overview of the newer technologies and techniques being used in bariatric surgery. It will also give a glimpse into future methods and those that have fallen short in recent times.

  7. Load forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mak, H.

    1995-01-01

    Slides used in a presentation at The Power of Change Conference in Vancouver, BC in April 1995 about the changing needs for load forecasting were presented. Technological innovations and population increase were said to be the prime driving forces behind the changing needs in load forecasting. Structural changes, market place changes, electricity supply planning changes, and changes in planning objectives were other factors discussed. It was concluded that load forecasting was a form of information gathering, that provided important market intelligence

  8. Identifying Effective Features and Classifiers for Short Term Rainfall Forecast Using Rough Sets Maximum Frequency Weighted Feature Reduction Technique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sudha Mohankumar

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Precise rainfall forecasting is a common challenge across the globe in meteorological predictions. As rainfall forecasting involves rather complex dynamic parameters, an increasing demand for novel approaches to improve the forecasting accuracy has heightened. Recently, Rough Set Theory (RST has attracted a wide variety of scientific applications and is extensively adopted in decision support systems. Although there are several weather prediction techniques in the existing literature, identifying significant input for modelling effective rainfall prediction is not addressed in the present mechanisms. Therefore, this investigation has examined the feasibility of using rough set based feature selection and data mining methods, namely Naïve Bayes (NB, Bayesian Logistic Regression (BLR, Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP, J48, Classification and Regression Tree (CART, Random Forest (RF, and Support Vector Machine (SVM, to forecast rainfall. Feature selection or reduction process is a process of identifying a significant feature subset, in which the generated subset must characterize the information system as a complete feature set. This paper introduces a novel rough set based Maximum Frequency Weighted (MFW feature reduction technique for finding an effective feature subset for modelling an efficient rainfall forecast system. The experimental analysis and the results indicate substantial improvements of prediction models when trained using the selected feature subset. CART and J48 classifiers have achieved an improved accuracy of 83.42% and 89.72%, respectively. From the experimental study, relative humidity2 (a4 and solar radiation (a6 have been identified as the effective parameters for modelling rainfall prediction.

  9. Probabilistic Latent Semantic Analyses (PLSA in Bibliometric Analysis for Technology Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Zan

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Due to the availability of internet-based abstract services and patent databases, bibliometric analysis has become one of key technology forecasting approaches. Recently, latent semantic analysis (LSA has been applied to improve the accuracy in document clustering. In this paper, a new LSA method, probabilistic latent semantic analysis (PLSA which uses probabilistic methods and algebra to search latent space in the corpus is further applied in document clustering. The results show that PLSA is more accurate than LSA and the improved iteration method proposed by authors can simplify the computing process and improve the computing efficiency

  10. A novel hybrid model for air quality index forecasting based on two-phase decomposition technique and modified extreme learning machine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Deyun; Wei, Shuai; Luo, Hongyuan; Yue, Chenqiang; Grunder, Olivier

    2017-02-15

    The randomness, non-stationarity and irregularity of air quality index (AQI) series bring the difficulty of AQI forecasting. To enhance forecast accuracy, a novel hybrid forecasting model combining two-phase decomposition technique and extreme learning machine (ELM) optimized by differential evolution (DE) algorithm is developed for AQI forecasting in this paper. In phase I, the complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD) is utilized to decompose the AQI series into a set of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) with different frequencies; in phase II, in order to further handle the high frequency IMFs which will increase the forecast difficulty, variational mode decomposition (VMD) is employed to decompose the high frequency IMFs into a number of variational modes (VMs). Then, the ELM model optimized by DE algorithm is applied to forecast all the IMFs and VMs. Finally, the forecast value of each high frequency IMF is obtained through adding up the forecast results of all corresponding VMs, and the forecast series of AQI is obtained by aggregating the forecast results of all IMFs. To verify and validate the proposed model, two daily AQI series from July 1, 2014 to June 30, 2016 collected from Beijing and Shanghai located in China are taken as the test cases to conduct the empirical study. The experimental results show that the proposed hybrid model based on two-phase decomposition technique is remarkably superior to all other considered models for its higher forecast accuracy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Applicability of Forecasting Models and Techniques for Stationery Business: A Case Study from Sri Lanka

    OpenAIRE

    Dewmini Danushika Illeperuma, Thashika Rupasinghe

    2013-01-01

    A demand forecasting methodology for a stationery company in Sri Lanka is being investigated. Different forecasting methods available are looked at including judgemental methods, quantitative methods and Artificial Intelligence methods. Importance of using a combination of methods available instead of using a single method is emphasised by the literature.

  12. Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables using Neural Network Models and Three Automated Model Selection Techniques

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kock, Anders Bredahl; Teräsvirta, Timo

    In this paper we consider the forecasting performance of a well-defined class of flexible models, the so-called single hidden-layer feedforward neural network models. A major aim of our study is to find out whether they, due to their flexibility, are as useful tools in economic forecasting as some...... previous studies have indicated. When forecasting with neural network models one faces several problems, all of which influence the accuracy of the forecasts. First, neural networks are often hard to estimate due to their highly nonlinear structure. In fact, their parameters are not even globally...... on the linearisation idea: the Marginal Bridge Estimator and Autometrics. Second, one must decide whether forecasting should be carried out recursively or directly. Comparisons of these two methodss exist for linear models and here these comparisons are extended to neural networks. Finally, a nonlinear model...

  13. Machine learning techniques in disease forecasting: a case study on rice blast prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kapoor Amar S

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Diverse modeling approaches viz. neural networks and multiple regression have been followed to date for disease prediction in plant populations. However, due to their inability to predict value of unknown data points and longer training times, there is need for exploiting new prediction softwares for better understanding of plant-pathogen-environment relationships. Further, there is no online tool available which can help the plant researchers or farmers in timely application of control measures. This paper introduces a new prediction approach based on support vector machines for developing weather-based prediction models of plant diseases. Results Six significant weather variables were selected as predictor variables. Two series of models (cross-location and cross-year were developed and validated using a five-fold cross validation procedure. For cross-year models, the conventional multiple regression (REG approach achieved an average correlation coefficient (r of 0.50, which increased to 0.60 and percent mean absolute error (%MAE decreased from 65.42 to 52.24 when back-propagation neural network (BPNN was used. With generalized regression neural network (GRNN, the r increased to 0.70 and %MAE also improved to 46.30, which further increased to r = 0.77 and %MAE = 36.66 when support vector machine (SVM based method was used. Similarly, cross-location validation achieved r = 0.48, 0.56 and 0.66 using REG, BPNN and GRNN respectively, with their corresponding %MAE as 77.54, 66.11 and 58.26. The SVM-based method outperformed all the three approaches by further increasing r to 0.74 with improvement in %MAE to 44.12. Overall, this SVM-based prediction approach will open new vistas in the area of forecasting plant diseases of various crops. Conclusion Our case study demonstrated that SVM is better than existing machine learning techniques and conventional REG approaches in forecasting plant diseases. In this direction, we have also

  14. Short-Term Forecasting Models for Photovoltaic Plants: Analytical versus Soft-Computing Techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudio Monteiro

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We present and compare two short-term statistical forecasting models for hourly average electric power production forecasts of photovoltaic (PV plants: the analytical PV power forecasting model (APVF and the multiplayer perceptron PV forecasting model (MPVF. Both models use forecasts from numerical weather prediction (NWP tools at the location of the PV plant as well as the past recorded values of PV hourly electric power production. The APVF model consists of an original modeling for adjusting irradiation data of clear sky by an irradiation attenuation index, combined with a PV power production attenuation index. The MPVF model consists of an artificial neural network based model (selected among a large set of ANN optimized with genetic algorithms, GAs. The two models use forecasts from the same NWP tool as inputs. The APVF and MPVF models have been applied to a real-life case study of a grid-connected PV plant using the same data. Despite the fact that both models are quite different, they achieve very similar results, with forecast horizons covering all the daylight hours of the following day, which give a good perspective of their applicability for PV electric production sale bids to electricity markets.

  15. Inverse Optimization and Forecasting Techniques Applied to Decision-making in Electricity Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Saez Gallego, Javier

    This thesis deals with the development of new mathematical models that support the decision-making processes of market players. It addresses the problems of demand-side bidding, price-responsive load forecasting and reserve determination. From a methodological point of view, we investigate a novel...... in electricity markets. In the field of load forecasting, this thesis provides a novel approach to model time series and forecast loads under the real-time pricing setup. The relationship between price and aggregate response of the load is characterized by an optimization problem, which is shaped by a set...... of wind power and load forecast errors and power plant outages. The solution of the stochastic optimization models increases the safety of the overall system while decreases the associated reserve costs, with respect to the method currently used by the Danish TSO....

  16. Technology and Technique: An Educational Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isman, Aytekin

    2012-01-01

    Today, technology is developing very fast around the world. This technological development (hardware and software) affects our life. There is a relationship among technology, society, culture, organization, machines, technical operation, and technical phenomenon. Educators should know this relationship because technology begins to affect teaching…

  17. Technology data characterizing refrigeration in commercial buildings: Application to end-use forecasting with COMMEND 4.0

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sezgen, O.; Koomey, J.G.

    1995-12-01

    In the United States, energy consumption is increasing most rapidly in the commercial sector. Consequently, the commercial sector is becoming an increasingly important target for state and federal energy policies and also for utility-sponsored demand side management (DSM) programs. The rapid growth in commercial-sector energy consumption also makes it important for analysts working on energy policy and DSM issues to have access to energy end-use forecasting models that include more detailed representations of energy-using technologies in the commercial sector. These new forecasting models disaggregate energy consumption not only by fuel type, end use, and building type, but also by specific technology. The disaggregation of the refrigeration end use in terms of specific technologies, however, is complicated by several factors. First, the number of configurations of refrigeration cases and systems is quite large. Also, energy use is a complex function of the refrigeration-case properties and the refrigeration-system properties. The Electric Power Research Institute`s (EPRI`s) Commercial End-Use Planning System (COMMEND 4.0) and the associated data development presented in this report attempt to address the above complications and create a consistent forecasting framework. Expanding end-use forecasting models so that they address individual technology options requires characterization of the present floorstock in terms of service requirements, energy technologies used, and cost-efficiency attributes of the energy technologies that consumers may choose for new buildings and retrofits. This report describes the process by which we collected refrigeration technology data. The data were generated for COMMEND 4.0 but are also generally applicable to other end-use forecasting frameworks for the commercial sector.

  18. Technology Alignment and Portfolio Prioritization (TAPP): Advanced Methods in Strategic Analysis, Technology Forecasting and Long Term Planning for Human Exploration and Operations, Advanced Exploration Systems and Advanced Concepts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funaro, Gregory V.; Alexander, Reginald A.

    2015-01-01

    The Advanced Concepts Office (ACO) at NASA, Marshall Space Flight Center is expanding its current technology assessment methodologies. ACO is developing a framework called TAPP that uses a variety of methods, such as association mining and rule learning from data mining, structure development using a Technological Innovation System (TIS), and social network modeling to measure structural relationships. The role of ACO is to 1) produce a broad spectrum of ideas and alternatives for a variety of NASA's missions, 2) determine mission architecture feasibility and appropriateness to NASA's strategic plans, and 3) define a project in enough detail to establish an initial baseline capable of meeting mission objectives ACO's role supports the decision­-making process associated with the maturation of concepts for traveling through, living in, and understanding space. ACO performs concept studies and technology assessments to determine the degree of alignment between mission objectives and new technologies. The first step in technology assessment is to identify the current technology maturity in terms of a technology readiness level (TRL). The second step is to determine the difficulty associated with advancing a technology from one state to the next state. NASA has used TRLs since 1970 and ACO formalized them in 1995. The DoD, ESA, Oil & Gas, and DoE have adopted TRLs as a means to assess technology maturity. However, "with the emergence of more complex systems and system of systems, it has been increasingly recognized that TRL assessments have limitations, especially when considering [the] integration of complex systems." When performing the second step in a technology assessment, NASA requires that an Advancement Degree of Difficulty (AD2) method be utilized. NASA has used and developed or used a variety of methods to perform this step: Expert Opinion or Delphi Approach, Value Engineering or Value Stream, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Technique for the Order of

  19. Technological forecasting applied to the processes of hydrogen generation; Previsao tecnologica sobre os processos de geracao de hidrogenio

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nakano, Milton Satocy; Oliveira, Wagner dos Santos [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)], e-mails: msnakano@usp.br; wagner@ipen.br

    2008-11-15

    Fuel cells are attracting interest as efficient and clean energy conversion devices. Hydrogen is the combustible of the fuel cells and must be generated by an efficient and clean method. This work exploits Delphi methodology of technological forecasting applied to hydrogen generation and identifies the most probable methods that, in future, can be used to obtain hydrogen in Brazil. (author)

  20. A non-linear neural network technique for updating of river flow forecasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Y. Shamseldin

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available A non-linear Auto-Regressive Exogenous-input model (NARXM river flow forecasting output-updating procedure is presented. This updating procedure is based on the structure of a multi-layer neural network. The NARXM-neural network updating procedure is tested using the daily discharge forecasts of the soil moisture accounting and routing (SMAR conceptual model operating on five catchments having different climatic conditions. The performance of the NARXM-neural network updating procedure is compared with that of the linear Auto-Regressive Exogenous-input (ARXM model updating procedure, the latter being a generalisation of the widely used Auto-Regressive (AR model forecast error updating procedure. The results of the comparison indicate that the NARXM procedure performs better than the ARXM procedure. Keywords: Auto-Regressive Exogenous-input model, neural network, output-updating procedure, soil moisture accounting and routing (SMAR model

  1. MAG4 Versus Alternative Techniques for Forecasting Active-Region Flare Productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falconer, David A.; Moore, Ronald L.; Barghouty, Abdulnasser F.; Khazanov, Igor

    2014-01-01

    MAG4 (Magnetogram Forecast), developed originally for NASA/SRAG (Space Radiation Analysis Group), is an automated program that analyzes magnetograms from the HMI (Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager) instrument on NASA SDO (Solar Dynamics Observatory), and automatically converts the rate (or probability) of major flares (M- and X-class), Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), and Solar Energetic Particle Events. MAG4 does not forecast that a flare will occur at a particular time in the next 24 or 48 hours; rather the probability of one occurring.

  2. Application of the LEPS technique for Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (QPF) in Southern Italy: a preliminary study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Federico, S.; Avolio, E.; Bellecci, C.; Colacino, M.; Walko, R. L.

    2006-03-01

    This paper reports preliminary results for a Limited area model Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS), based on RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modelling System), for eight case studies of moderate-intense precipitation over Calabria, the southernmost tip of the Italian peninsula. LEPS aims to transfer the benefits of a probabilistic forecast from global to regional scales in countries where local orographic forcing is a key factor to force convection. To accomplish this task and to limit computational time in an operational implementation of LEPS, we perform a cluster analysis of ECMWF-EPS runs. Starting from the 51 members that form the ECMWF-EPS we generate five clusters. For each cluster a representative member is selected and used to provide initial and dynamic boundary conditions to RAMS, whose integrations generate LEPS. RAMS runs have 12-km horizontal resolution. To analyze the impact of enhanced horizontal resolution on quantitative precipitation forecasts, LEPS forecasts are compared to a full Brute Force (BF) ensemble. This ensemble is based on RAMS, has 36 km horizontal resolution and is generated by 51 members, nested in each ECMWF-EPS member. LEPS and BF results are compared subjectively and by objective scores. Subjective analysis is based on precipitation and probability maps of case studies whereas objective analysis is made by deterministic and probabilistic scores. Scores and maps are calculated by comparing ensemble precipitation forecasts against reports from the Calabria regional raingauge network. Results show that LEPS provided better rainfall predictions than BF for all case studies selected. This strongly suggests the importance of the enhanced horizontal resolution, compared to ensemble population, for Calabria for these cases. To further explore the impact of local physiographic features on QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting), LEPS results are also compared with a 6-km horizontal resolution deterministic forecast. Due to local and

  3. Hybrid models for hydrological forecasting: Integration of data-driven and conceptual modelling techniques

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Corzo Perez, G.A.

    2009-01-01

    This book presents the investigation of different architectures of integrating hydrological knowledge and models with data-driven models for the purpose of hydrological flow forecasting. The models resulting from such integration are referred to as hybrid models. The book addresses the following

  4. Hybrid models for hydrological forecasting : Integration of data-driven and conceptual modelling techniques

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Corzo Perez, G.A.

    2009-01-01

    This book presents the investigation of different architectures of integrating hydrological knowledge and models with data-driven models for the purpose of hydrological flow forecasting. The models resulting from such integration are referred to as hybrid models. The book addresses the following

  5. Daily water level forecasting using wavelet decomposition and artificial intelligence techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, Youngmin; Kim, Sungwon; Kisi, Ozgur; Singh, Vijay P.

    2015-01-01

    Reliable water level forecasting for reservoir inflow is essential for reservoir operation. The objective of this paper is to develop and apply two hybrid models for daily water level forecasting and investigate their accuracy. These two hybrid models are wavelet-based artificial neural network (WANN) and wavelet-based adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (WANFIS). Wavelet decomposition is employed to decompose an input time series into approximation and detail components. The decomposed time series are used as inputs to artificial neural networks (ANN) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for WANN and WANFIS models, respectively. Based on statistical performance indexes, the WANN and WANFIS models are found to produce better efficiency than the ANN and ANFIS models. WANFIS7-sym10 yields the best performance among all other models. It is found that wavelet decomposition improves the accuracy of ANN and ANFIS. This study evaluates the accuracy of the WANN and WANFIS models for different mother wavelets, including Daubechies, Symmlet and Coiflet wavelets. It is found that the model performance is dependent on input sets and mother wavelets, and the wavelet decomposition using mother wavelet, db10, can further improve the efficiency of ANN and ANFIS models. Results obtained from this study indicate that the conjunction of wavelet decomposition and artificial intelligence models can be a useful tool for accurate forecasting daily water level and can yield better efficiency than the conventional forecasting models.

  6. SWIFTER - Space Weather Informatics, Forecasting, and Technology through Enabling Research and Virtual Organizations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaefer, R. K.; Morrison, D.; Paxton, L.; Holm, J.; Weiss, M.; Hsieh, S.

    2009-05-01

    SWIFTER will build a virtual organization to enable collaboration among research, military, and commercial communities to find new ways to understand, characterize, and forecast space weather to meet the needs of our technology based society. In this paper we discuss how knowledge is shared in organizations and how a virtual organization can be formed. A key element of a "virtual" organization is that it is a fluid collection of members that share some means of communicating relevant information among some of its members. The members also share ideas in evolution (such as analysis, new technologies, and predictive trending). As concepts mature they can be matured or discarded more quickly as the power of the network is brought to bear early and often. Space weather, the changes in the near-Earth space environment, is important to a wide range of users as well as the public. The public is interested in a variety of phenomena including meteors, solar flares, the aurora, noctilucent clouds and climate change. Industry focus tends to be on more concrete problems such as ground-induced currents in power lines and communications with aircraft in transpolar routes as well as geolocation (i.e. the use of GPS systems to precisely map a function to a position). Other government-oriented users service specialized communities who may be more or less unaware of the research and development upon which the forecasts or nowcasts rely for accuracy. The basic research community may be more or less unaware of the details of the applications, or potential applications of their research. The problem, then, is that each of these constituencies may share elements in common but there is no umbrella organization that ties them together, nor is there likely to be such an organization. Our goal in this paper is to outline a scheme for a virtual organization, delineate the functions of that VO and illustrate how it might be formed. We also will assess the barriers to knowledge transfer that

  7. Sensitivity analysis of a data assimilation technique for hindcasting and forecasting hydrodynamics of a complex coastal water body

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Lei; Hartnett, Michael

    2017-02-01

    Accurate forecasting of coastal surface currents is of great economic importance due to marine activities such as marine renewable energy and fish farms in coastal regions in recent twenty years. Advanced oceanographic observation systems such as satellites and radars can provide many parameters of interest, such as surface currents and waves, with fine spatial resolution in near real time. To enhance modelling capability, data assimilation (DA) techniques which combine the available measurements with the hydrodynamic models have been used since the 1990s in oceanography. Assimilating measurements into hydrodynamic models makes the original model background states follow the observation trajectory, then uses it to provide more accurate forecasting information. Galway Bay is an open, wind dominated water body on which two coastal radars are deployed. An efficient and easy to implement sequential DA algorithm named Optimal Interpolation (OI) was used to blend radar surface current data into a three-dimensional Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) model. Two empirical parameters, horizontal correlation length and DA cycle length (CL), are inherent within OI. No guidance has previously been published regarding selection of appropriate values of these parameters or how sensitive OI DA is to variations in their values. Detailed sensitivity analysis has been performed on both of these parameters and results presented. Appropriate value of DA CL was examined and determined on producing the minimum Root-Mean-Square-Error (RMSE) between radar data and model background states. Analysis was performed to evaluate assimilation index (AI) of using an OI DA algorithm in the model. AI of the half-day forecasting mean vectors' directions was over 50% in the best assimilation model. The ability of using OI to improve model forecasts was also assessed and is reported upon.

  8. A Gaussian Processes Technique for Short-term Load Forecasting with Considerations of Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohmi, Masataro; Mori, Hiroyuki

    In this paper, an efficient method is proposed to deal with short-term load forecasting with the Gaussian Processes. Short-term load forecasting plays a key role to smooth power system operation such as economic load dispatching, unit commitment, etc. Recently, the deregulated and competitive power market increases the degree of uncertainty. As a result, it is more important to obtain better prediction results to save the cost. One of the most important aspects is that power system operator needs the upper and lower bounds of the predicted load to deal with the uncertainty while they require more accurate predicted values. The proposed method is based on the Bayes model in which output is expressed in a distribution rather than a point. To realize the model efficiently, this paper proposes the Gaussian Processes that consists of the Bayes linear model and kernel machine to obtain the distribution of the predicted value. The proposed method is successively applied to real data of daily maximum load forecasting.

  9. Techniques to Pass on: Technology and Euthanasia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Brian

    2010-01-01

    Proponents and opponents of euthanasia have argued passionately about whether it should be legalized. In Australia in the mid-1990s, following the world's first legal euthanasia deaths, Dr. Philip Nitschke initiated a different approach: a search for do-it-yourself technological means of dying with dignity. The Australian government has opposed…

  10. Instructional Technology, Temper, Technique, and Teacher Empowerment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, J. Mark; Garrison, James W.

    1991-01-01

    Scientific management and hierarchical accountability tend to destroy dialogue and issue ideas as orders to be obeyed. Instructional technology packages can actually enslave teachers. The emendation or feedback loop built into all instructional systems should allow educators to alter design in the context of practice and help technologists design…

  11. Techniques and technologies to maximize mucosal exposure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moons, L.M.; Gralnek, I.M.; Siersema, P.D.

    2015-01-01

    Performing high-quality colonoscopy is one of the important goals of gastroenterology practices and requires achieving a high level of bowel cleansing, performing good and safe polypectomy, and detecting all polyps present in the colon. This article summarizes currently available techniques and

  12. Granulation techniques and technologies: recent progresses

    OpenAIRE

    Shanmugam, Srinivasan

    2015-01-01

    Granulation, the process of particle enlargement by agglomeration technique, is one of the most significant unit operations in the production of pharmaceutical dosage forms, mostly tablets and capsules. Granulation process transforms fine powders into free-flowing, dust-free granules that are easy to compress. Nevertheless, granulation poses numerous challenges due to high quality requirement of the formed granules in terms of content uniformity and physicochemical proper...

  13. The application of LEPS technique for Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) in Southern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Federico, S.; Avolio, E.; Bellecci, C.; Colacino, M.

    2006-01-01

    This paper reports preliminary results of a Limited area model Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS), based on RAMS, for eight case studies of moderate-intense precipitation over Calabria, the southernmost tip of the Italian peninsula. LEPS aims to transfer the benefits of a probabilistic forecast from global to regional scales in countries where local orographic forcing is a key factor to force convection. To accomplish this task and to limit computational time, in order to implement LEPS operational, we perform a cluster analysis of ECMWF-EPS runs. Starting from the 51 members that forms the ECMWF-EPS we generate five clusters. For each cluster a representative member is selected and used to provide initial and dynamic boundary conditions to RAMS, whose integrations generate LEPS. RAMS runs have 12 km horizontal resolution. Hereafter this ensemble will be referred also as LEPS_12L30. To analyze the impact of enhanced horizontal resolution on quantitative precipitation forecast, LEPS_12L30 forecasts are compared to a lower resolution ensemble, based on RAMS that has 50 km horizontal resolution and 51 members, nested in each ECMWF-EPS member. Hereafter this ensemble will be also referred as LEPS_50L30. LEPS_12L30 and LEPS_50L30 results were compared subjectively for all case studies but, for brevity, results are reported for two "representative" cases only. Subjective analysis is based on ensemble-mean precipitation and probability maps. Moreover, a short summary of objective scores. Maps and scores are evaluated against reports of Calabria regional raingauges network. Results show better LEPS_12L30 performance compared to LEPS_50L30. This is obtained for all case studies selected and strongly suggests the importance of the enhanced horizontal resolution, compared to ensemble population, for Calabria, at least for set-ups and case studies selected in this work.

  14. The application of LEPS technique for Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF in Southern Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Federico

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper reports preliminary results of a Limited area model Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS, based on RAMS, for eight case studies of moderate-intense precipitation over Calabria, the southernmost tip of the Italian peninsula. LEPS aims to transfer the benefits of a probabilistic forecast from global to regional scales in countries where local orographic forcing is a key factor to force convection. To accomplish this task and to limit computational time, in order to implement LEPS operational, we perform a cluster analysis of ECMWF-EPS runs. Starting from the 51 members that forms the ECMWF-EPS we generate five clusters. For each cluster a representative member is selected and used to provide initial and dynamic boundary conditions to RAMS, whose integrations generate LEPS. RAMS runs have 12 km horizontal resolution. Hereafter this ensemble will be referred also as LEPS_12L30. To analyze the impact of enhanced horizontal resolution on quantitative precipitation forecast, LEPS_12L30 forecasts are compared to a lower resolution ensemble, based on RAMS that has 50 km horizontal resolution and 51 members, nested in each ECMWF-EPS member. Hereafter this ensemble will be also referred as LEPS_50L30. LEPS_12L30 and LEPS_50L30 results were compared subjectively for all case studies but, for brevity, results are reported for two "representative" cases only. Subjective analysis is based on ensemble-mean precipitation and probability maps. Moreover, a short summary of objective scores. Maps and scores are evaluated against reports of Calabria regional raingauges network. Results show better LEPS_12L30 performance compared to LEPS_50L30. This is obtained for all case studies selected and strongly suggests the importance of the enhanced horizontal resolution, compared to ensemble population, for Calabria, at least for set-ups and case studies selected in this work.

  15. Technology data characterizing space conditioning in commercial buildings: Application to end-use forecasting with COMMEND 4.0

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sezgen, O.; Franconi, E.M.; Koomey, J.G.; Greenberg, S.E.; Afzal, A.; Shown, L.

    1995-12-01

    In the US, energy consumption is increasing most rapidly in the commercial sector. Consequently, the commercial sector is becoming an increasingly important target for state and federal energy policies and also for utility-sponsored demand side management (DSM) programs. The rapid growth in commercial-sector energy consumption also makes it important for analysts working on energy policy and DSM issues to have access to energy end-use forecasting models that include more detailed representations of energy-using technologies in the commercial sector. These new forecasting models disaggregate energy consumption not only by fuel type, end use, and building type, but also by specific technology. The disaggregation of space conditioning end uses in terms of specific technologies is complicated by several factors. First, the number of configurations of heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems and heating and cooling plants is very large. Second, the properties of the building envelope are an integral part of a building`s HVAC energy consumption characteristics. Third, the characteristics of commercial buildings vary greatly by building type. The Electric Power Research Institute`s (EPRI`s) Commercial End-Use Planning System (COMMEND 4.0) and the associated data development presented in this report attempt to address the above complications and create a consistent forecasting framework. This report describes the process by which the authors collected space-conditioning technology data and then mapped it into the COMMEND 4.0 input format. The data are also generally applicable to other end-use forecasting frameworks for the commercial sector.

  16. Transforming dose management techniques through technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bennett, M.

    1996-01-01

    The management of occupational dose exposure has been transformed in recent years through the use of facilities such as computerized databases, remote instrumentation and electronic data transfer. Use of this technology has allowed increases both in the amount of data capable of being processed and in the speed at which the data is made available to operators and Health Physics personnel. These developments have significantly improved the quality and efficiency of dose management. The dose management system being used in support of the UK's naval nuclear plants has incorporated advances in the areas of dosimetry, data handling and data analysis. Physical dispersion of sites servicing the nuclear plants means that effective communication links have also been vital for good dose management. (author)

  17. Innovation in surgical technology and techniques: Challenges and ethical issues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geiger, James D; Hirschl, Ronald B

    2015-06-01

    The pace of medical innovation continues to increase. The deployment of new technologies in surgery creates many ethical challenges including how to determine safety of the technology, what is the timing and process for deployment of a new technology, how are patients informed before undergoing a new technology or technique, how are the outcomes of a new technology evaluated and how are the responsibilities of individual patients and society at large balanced. Ethical considerations relevant to the implementation of ECMO and robotic surgery are explored to further discussion of how we can optimize the delicate balance between innovation and regulation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Identification of the actual state and entity availability forecasting in power engineering using neural-network technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Protalinsky, O. M.; Shcherbatov, I. A.; Stepanov, P. V.

    2017-11-01

    A growing number of severe accidents in RF call for the need to develop a system that could prevent emergency situations. In a number of cases accident rate is stipulated by careless inspections and neglects in developing repair programs. Across the country rates of accidents are growing because of a so-called “human factor”. In this regard, there has become urgent the problem of identification of the actual state of technological facilities in power engineering using data on engineering processes running and applying artificial intelligence methods. The present work comprises four model states of manufacturing equipment of engineering companies: defect, failure, preliminary situation, accident. Defect evaluation is carried out using both data from SCADA and ASEPCR and qualitative information (verbal assessments of experts in subject matter, photo- and video materials of surveys processed using pattern recognition methods in order to satisfy the requirements). Early identification of defects makes possible to predict the failure of manufacturing equipment using mathematical techniques of artificial neural network. In its turn, this helps to calculate predicted characteristics of reliability of engineering facilities using methods of reliability theory. Calculation of the given parameters provides the real-time estimation of remaining service life of manufacturing equipment for the whole operation period. The neural networks model allows evaluating possibility of failure of a piece of equipment consistent with types of actual defects and their previous reasons. The article presents the grounds for a choice of training and testing samples for the developed neural network, evaluates the adequacy of the neural networks model, and shows how the model can be used to forecast equipment failure. There have been carried out simulating experiments using a computer and retrospective samples of actual values for power engineering companies. The efficiency of the developed

  19. Particle-Reinforced Aluminum Matrix Composites (AMCs—Selected Results of an Integrated Technology, User, and Market Analysis and Forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anja Schmidt

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The research and development of new materials such as particle-reinforced aluminum matrix composites (AMCs will only result in a successful innovation if these materials show significant advantages not only from a technological, but also from an economic point of view. Against this background, in the Collaborative Research Center SFB 692, the concept of an integrated technology, user, and market analysis and forecast has been developed as a means for assessing the technological and commercial potential of new materials in early life cycle stages. After briefly describing this concept, it is applied to AMCs and the potential field of manufacturing aircraft components. Results show not only technological advances, but also considerable economic potential—the latter one primarily resulting from the possible weight reduction being enabled by the increased yield strength of the new material.

  20. Meta-heuristic ant colony optimization technique to forecast the amount of summer monsoon rainfall: skill comparison with Markov chain model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaudhuri, Sutapa; Goswami, Sayantika; Das, Debanjana; Middey, Anirban

    2014-05-01

    Forecasting summer monsoon rainfall with precision becomes crucial for the farmers to plan for harvesting in a country like India where the national economy is mostly based on regional agriculture. The forecast of monsoon rainfall based on artificial neural network is a well-researched problem. In the present study, the meta-heuristic ant colony optimization (ACO) technique is implemented to forecast the amount of summer monsoon rainfall for the next day over Kolkata (22.6°N, 88.4°E), India. The ACO technique belongs to swarm intelligence and simulates the decision-making processes of ant colony similar to other adaptive learning techniques. ACO technique takes inspiration from the foraging behaviour of some ant species. The ants deposit pheromone on the ground in order to mark a favourable path that should be followed by other members of the colony. A range of rainfall amount replicating the pheromone concentration is evaluated during the summer monsoon season. The maximum amount of rainfall during summer monsoon season (June—September) is observed to be within the range of 7.5-35 mm during the period from 1998 to 2007, which is in the range 4 category set by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The result reveals that the accuracy in forecasting the amount of rainfall for the next day during the summer monsoon season using ACO technique is 95 % where as the forecast accuracy is 83 % with Markov chain model (MCM). The forecast through ACO and MCM are compared with other existing models and validated with IMD observations from 2008 to 2012.

  1. Technology data characterizing lighting in commercial buildings: Application to end-use forecasting with commend 4.0

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sezgen, A.O.; Huang, Y.J.; Atkinson, B.A.; Eto, J.H.; Koomey, J.G.

    1994-05-01

    End-use forecasting models typically utilize technology tradeoff curves to represent technology options available to consumers. A tradeoff curve, in general terms, is a functional form which relates efficiency to capital cost. Each end-use is modeled by a single tradeoff curve. This type of representation is satisfactory in the analysis of many policy options. On the other hand, for policies addressing individual technology options or groups of technology options, because individual technology options are accessible to the analyst, representation in such reduced form is not satisfactory. To address this and other analysis needs, the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) has enhanced its Commercial End-Use Planning System (COMMEND) to allow modeling of specific lighting and space conditioning (HVAC) technology options. This report characterizes the present commercial floorstock in terms of lighting technologies and develops cost-efficiency data for these lighting technologies. This report also characterizes the interactions between the lighting and space conditioning end uses in commercial buildings in the US In general, lighting energy reductions increase the heating and decrease the cooling requirements. The net change in a building`s energy requirements, however, depends on the building characteristics, operating conditions, and the climate. Lighting/HVAC interactions data were generated through computer simulations using the DOE-2 building energy analysis program.

  2. A statistical forecast model using the time-scale decomposition technique to predict rainfall during flood period over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Yijia; Zhong, Zhong; Zhu, Yimin; Ha, Yao

    2018-04-01

    In this paper, a statistical forecast model using the time-scale decomposition method is established to do the seasonal prediction of the rainfall during flood period (FPR) over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley (MLYRV). This method decomposites the rainfall over the MLYRV into three time-scale components, namely, the interannual component with the period less than 8 years, the interdecadal component with the period from 8 to 30 years, and the interdecadal component with the period larger than 30 years. Then, the predictors are selected for the three time-scale components of FPR through the correlation analysis. At last, a statistical forecast model is established using the multiple linear regression technique to predict the three time-scale components of the FPR, respectively. The results show that this forecast model can capture the interannual and interdecadal variation of FPR. The hindcast of FPR during 14 years from 2001 to 2014 shows that the FPR can be predicted successfully in 11 out of the 14 years. This forecast model performs better than the model using traditional scheme without time-scale decomposition. Therefore, the statistical forecast model using the time-scale decomposition technique has good skills and application value in the operational prediction of FPR over the MLYRV.

  3. Supply shortage forecast in Ontario: The significance of demand-side management (DSM); its tools and techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saini, S.

    2004-01-01

    Aspects of the recent report by the Ontario Electricity Conservation and Supply Task Force and Independent Market Operator which forecasts acute power supply shortages in Ontario, are discussed. Immediate action is recommended to avert the problem. The principal recommendation concerns the adoption of Demand Side Management as a tool to reduce the widening gap between supply and demand, citing supply shortage, imports, high prices, deregulated market and environmental concerns as the driving forces which push for the adoption of DSM. It is claimed that DSM, through its tools such as Demand/Load Response Programs and Time-of-Use rates has the capacity to create the necessary balance between supply and demand more efficiently, and in a more timely fashion than supply side management. The demand for adoption of DSM is justified on the basis of a careful examination of the magnitude and significance of each of the driving forces affecting the electricity supply in Ontario, as well as the benefits and techniques of DSM designed to manage power shortages. Energy Conservation and Efficiency and Demand/Load Response Programs are discussed as the principal DSM techniques, while Dynamic/Real Time Pricing, Time-of-Use Rates, Automated /Smart Metering, Web-based/Communication Systems, Reliability-based Programs, Market/Price-based programs, and Types of Load Control are described as the principal tools used by DSM. DSM program approaches and strategies are also reviewed, along with a brief list of successful examples of DSM applications. 3 figs

  4. Inaccuracy in traffic forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, Bent; Holm, Mette K. Skamris; Buhl, Søren Ladegaard

    2006-01-01

    that forecasters generally do a poor job of estimating the demand for transportation infrastructure projects. The result is substantial downside financial and economic risk. Forecasts have not become more accurate over the 30-year period studied. If techniques and skills for arriving at accurate demand forecasts...... forecasting. Highly inaccurate traffic forecasts combined with large standard deviations translate into large financial and economic risks. But such risks are typically ignored or downplayed by planners and decision-makers, to the detriment of social and economic welfare. The paper presents the data...

  5. Effective Feature Preprocessing for Time Series Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Junhua; Dong, Zhaoyang; Xu, Zhao

    2006-01-01

    Time series forecasting is an important area in data mining research. Feature preprocessing techniques have significant influence on forecasting accuracy, therefore are essential in a forecasting model. Although several feature preprocessing techniques have been applied in time series forecasting...... performance in time series forecasting. It is demonstrated in our experiment that, effective feature preprocessing can significantly enhance forecasting accuracy. This research can be a useful guidance for researchers on effectively selecting feature preprocessing techniques and integrating them with time...

  6. Applications of soft computing in time series forecasting simulation and modeling techniques

    CERN Document Server

    Singh, Pritpal

    2016-01-01

    This book reports on an in-depth study of fuzzy time series (FTS) modeling. It reviews and summarizes previous research work in FTS modeling and also provides a brief introduction to other soft-computing techniques, such as artificial neural networks (ANNs), rough sets (RS) and evolutionary computing (EC), focusing on how these techniques can be integrated into different phases of the FTS modeling approach. In particular, the book describes novel methods resulting from the hybridization of FTS modeling approaches with neural networks and particle swarm optimization. It also demonstrates how a new ANN-based model can be successfully applied in the context of predicting Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Thanks to its easy-to-read style and the clear explanations of the models, the book can be used as a concise yet comprehensive reference guide to fuzzy time series modeling, and will be valuable not only for graduate students, but also for researchers and professionals working for academic, business and governmen...

  7. Net load forecasting for high renewable energy penetration grids

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaur, Amanpreet; Nonnenmacher, Lukas; Coimbra, Carlos F.M.

    2016-01-01

    We discuss methods for net load forecasting and their significance for operation and management of power grids with high renewable energy penetration. Net load forecasting is an enabling technology for the integration of microgrid fleets with the macrogrid. Net load represents the load that is traded between the grids (microgrid and utility grid). It is important for resource allocation and electricity market participation at the point of common coupling between the interconnected grids. We compare two inherently different approaches: additive and integrated net load forecast models. The proposed methodologies are validated on a microgrid with 33% annual renewable energy (solar) penetration. A heuristics based solar forecasting technique is proposed, achieving skill of 24.20%. The integrated solar and load forecasting model outperforms the additive model by 10.69% and the uncertainty range for the additive model is larger than the integrated model by 2.2%. Thus, for grid applications an integrated forecast model is recommended. We find that the net load forecast errors and the solar forecasting errors are cointegrated with a common stochastic drift. This is useful for future planning and modeling because the solar energy time-series allows to infer important features of the net load time-series, such as expected variability and uncertainty. - Highlights: • Net load forecasting methods for grids with renewable energy generation are discussed. • Integrated solar and load forecasting outperforms the additive model by 10.69%. • Net load forecasting reduces the uncertainty between the interconnected grids.

  8. Adaptive Opportunistic Cooperative Control Mechanism Based on Combination Forecasting and Multilevel Sensing Technology of Sensors for Mobile Internet of Things

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yong Jin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In mobile Internet of Things, there are many challenges, including sensing technology of sensors, how and when to join cooperative transmission, and how to select the cooperative sensors. To address these problems, we studied the combination forecasting based on the multilevel sensing technology of sensors, building upon which we proposed the adaptive opportunistic cooperative control mechanism based on the threshold values such as activity probability, distance, transmitting power, and number of relay sensors, in consideration of signal to noise ratio and outage probability. More importantly, the relay sensors would do self-test real time in order to judge whether to join the cooperative transmission, for maintaining the optimal cooperative transmission state with high performance. The mathematical analyses results show that the proposed adaptive opportunistic cooperative control approach could perform better in terms of throughput ratio, packet error rate and delay, and energy efficiency, compared with the direct transmission and opportunistic cooperative approaches.

  9. Practical Applications of Evolutionary Computation to Financial Engineering Robust Techniques for Forecasting, Trading and Hedging

    CERN Document Server

    Iba, Hitoshi

    2012-01-01

    “Practical Applications of Evolutionary Computation to Financial Engineering” presents the state of the art techniques in Financial Engineering using recent results in Machine Learning and Evolutionary Computation. This book bridges the gap between academics in computer science and traders and explains the basic ideas of the proposed systems and the financial problems in ways that can be understood by readers without previous knowledge on either of the fields. To cement the ideas discussed in the book, software packages are offered that implement the systems described within. The book is structured so that each chapter can be read independently from the others. Chapters 1 and 2 describe evolutionary computation. The third chapter is an introduction to financial engineering problems for readers who are unfamiliar with this area. The following chapters each deal, in turn, with a different problem in the financial engineering field describing each problem in detail and focusing on solutions based on evolutio...

  10. Applying machine learning techniques for forecasting flexibility of virtual power plants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    MacDougall, Pamela; Kosek, Anna Magdalena; Bindner, Henrik W.

    2016-01-01

    Previous and existing evaluations of available flexibility using small device demand response have typically been done with detailed information of end-user systems. With these large numbers, having lower level information has both privacy and computational limitations. We propose a black box...... hidden layer artificial neural network (ANN). Both techniques are used to model a relationship between the aggregator portfolio state and requested ramp power to the longevity of the delivered flexibility. Using validated individual household models, a smart controlled aggregated virtual power plant...... is simulated. A hierarchical market-based supply-demand matching control mechanism is used to steer the heating devices in the virtual power plant. For both the training and validation set of clusters, a random number of households, between 200 and 2000, is generated with day ahead profile scaled accordingly...

  11. Using Enabling Technologies to Facilitate the Comparison of Satellite Observations with the Model Forecasts for Hurricane Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, P.; Knosp, B.; Hristova-Veleva, S. M.; Niamsuwan, N.; Johnson, M. P.; Shen, T. P. J.; Tanelli, S.; Turk, J.; Vu, Q. A.

    2014-12-01

    Due to their complexity and volume, the satellite data are underutilized in today's hurricane research and operations. To better utilize these data, we developed the JPL Tropical Cyclone Information System (TCIS) - an Interactive Data Portal providing fusion between Near-Real-Time satellite observations and model forecasts to facilitate model evaluation and improvement. We have collected satellite observations and model forecasts in the Atlantic Basin and the East Pacific for the hurricane seasons since 2010 and supported the NASA Airborne Campaigns for Hurricane Study such as the Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) in 2010 and the Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) from 2012 to 2014. To enable the direct inter-comparisons of the satellite observations and the model forecasts, the TCIS was integrated with the NASA Earth Observing System Simulator Suite (NEOS3) to produce synthetic observations (e.g. simulated passive microwave brightness temperatures) from a number of operational hurricane forecast models (HWRF and GFS). An automated process was developed to trigger NEOS3 simulations via web services given the location and time of satellite observations, monitor the progress of the NEOS3 simulations, display the synthetic observation and ingest them into the TCIS database when they are done. In addition, three analysis tools, the joint PDF analysis of the brightness temperatures, ARCHER for finding the storm-center and the storm organization and the Wave Number Analysis tool for storm asymmetry and morphology analysis were integrated into TCIS to provide statistical and structural analysis on both observed and synthetic data. Interactive tools were built in the TCIS visualization system to allow the spatial and temporal selections of the datasets, the invocation of the tools with user specified parameters, and the display and the delivery of the results. In this presentation, we will describe the key enabling technologies behind the design of

  12. On the Influence of Weather Forecast Errors in Short-Term Load Forecasting Models

    OpenAIRE

    Fay, D.; Ringwood, John; Condon, M.

    2004-01-01

    Weather information is an important factor in load forecasting models. This weather information usually takes the form of actual weather readings. However, online operation of load forecasting models requires the use of weather forecasts, with associated weather forecast errors. A technique is proposed to model weather forecast errors to reflect current accuracy. A load forecasting model is then proposed which combines the forecasts of several load forecasting models. This approach allows the...

  13. The Weather Forecast Using Data Mining Research Based on Cloud Computing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, ZhanJie; Mazharul Mujib, A. B. M.

    2017-10-01

    Weather forecasting has been an important application in meteorology and one of the most scientifically and technologically challenging problem around the world. In my study, we have analyzed the use of data mining techniques in forecasting weather. This paper proposes a modern method to develop a service oriented architecture for the weather information systems which forecast weather using these data mining techniques. This can be carried out by using Artificial Neural Network and Decision tree Algorithms and meteorological data collected in Specific time. Algorithm has presented the best results to generate classification rules for the mean weather variables. The results showed that these data mining techniques can be enough for weather forecasting.

  14. Energy optimization through probabilistic annual forecast water release technique for major storage hydroelectric reservoir

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdul Bahari Othman; Mohd Zamri Yusoff

    2006-01-01

    One of the important decisions to be made by the management of hydroelectric power plant associated with major storage reservoir is to determine the best turbine water release decision for the next financial year. The water release decision enables firm energy generated estimation for the coming financial year to be done. This task is usually a simple and straightforward task provided that the amount of turbine water release is known. The more challenging task is to determine the best water release decision that is able to resolve the two conflicting operational objectives which are minimizing the drop of turbine gross head and maximizing upper reserve margin of the reservoir. Most techniques from literature emphasize on utilizing the statistical simulations approach. Markovians models, for example, are a class of statistical model that utilizes the past and the present system states as a basis for predicting the future [1]. This paper illustrates that rigorous solution criterion can be mathematically proven to resolve those two conflicting operational objectives. Thus, best water release decision that maximizes potential energy for the prevailing natural inflow is met. It is shown that the annual water release decision shall be made in such a manner that annual return inflow that has return frequency smaller than critical return frequency (f c ) should not be considered. This criterion enables target turbine gross head to be set to the well-defined elevation. In the other words, upper storage margin of the reservoir shall be made available to capture magnitude of future inflow that has return frequency greater than or equal to f c. A case study is shown to demonstrate practical application of the derived mathematical formulas

  15. NEEMO 21: Tools, Techniques, Technologies & Training for Science Exploration EVA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graff, Trevor

    2016-01-01

    The 21st mission of the NASA Extreme Environment Mission Operations (NEEMO) was a highly integrated operational test and evaluation of tools, techniques, technologies, and training for science driven exploration during Extravehicular Activity (EVA).The 16-day mission was conducted from the Aquarius habitat, an underwater laboratory, off the coast of Key Largo, FL. The unique facility, authentic science objectives, and diverse skill-sets of the crew/team facilitate the planning and design for future space exploration.

  16. A Novel Method for Technology Forecasting and Developing R&D Strategy of Building Integrated Photovoltaic Technology Industry

    OpenAIRE

    Chiu, Yu-Jing; Ying, Tao-Ming

    2012-01-01

    Because of global warming, renewable energy technologies have become more essential currently, with solar energy technology advancing worldwide. Therefore, interdisciplinary integration is an important trend, and building-integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) is an emerging technology involving the photovoltaic and building fields. The purpose of this study is to understand the technology evolution of BIPV and to determine the R&D planning direction. This paper proposes a hybrid approach to explore ...

  17. Artificial neural networks in forecasting tourists’ flow, an intelligent technique to help the economic development of tourism in Albania.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dezdemona Gjylapi

    2014-07-01

    The aim of this paper is to present the neural network usage in the tourists’ number forecasting and to determine the trends of the future tourist inflow, thus helping tourism management agencies in making scientific based financial decisions.

  18. A Curriculum for Teaching Information Technology Investigative Techniques for Auditors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grover S. Kearns

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Recent prosecutions of highly publicized white-collar crimes combined with public outrage have resulted in heightened regulation of financial reporting and greater emphasis on systems of internal control. Because both white-collar and cybercrimes are usually perpetrated through computers, internal and external auditors’ knowledge of information technology (IT is now more vital than ever. However, preserving digital evidence and investigative techniques, which can be essential to fraud examinations, are not skills frequently taught in accounting programs and instruction in the use of computer assisted auditing tools and techniques – applications that might uncover fraudulent activity – is limited. Only a few university-level accounting classes provide instruction in IT investigative techniques. This paper explains why such a course would be beneficial to the program, the college, and the student. Additionally, it presents a proposed curriculum and suggests useful resources for the instructor and student.

  19. The intersections between TRIZ and forecasting methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgeta BARBULESCU

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The authors’ intention is to correlate the basic knowledge in using the TRIZ methodology (Theory of Inventive Problem Solving or in Russian: Teoriya Resheniya Izobretatelskikh Zadatch as a problem solving tools meant to help the decision makers to perform more significant forecasting exercises. The idea is to identify the TRIZ features and instruments (40 inventive principles, i.e. for putting in evidence the noise and signal problem, for trend identification (qualitative and quantitative tendencies and support tools in technological forecasting, to make the decision-makers able to refine and to increase the level of confidence in the forecasting results. The interest in connecting TRIZ to forecasting methodology, nowadays, relates to the massive application of TRIZ methods and techniques for engineering system development world-wide and in growing application of TRIZ’s concepts and paradigms for improvements of non-engineering systems (including the business and economic applications.

  20. A Comparison of the Performance of Advanced Statistical Techniques for the Refinement of Day-ahead and Longer NWP-based Wind Power Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zack, J. W.

    2015-12-01

    Predictions from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are the foundation for wind power forecasts for day-ahead and longer forecast horizons. The NWP models directly produce three-dimensional wind forecasts on their respective computational grids. These can be interpolated to the location and time of interest. However, these direct predictions typically contain significant systematic errors ("biases"). This is due to a variety of factors including the limited space-time resolution of the NWP models and shortcomings in the model's representation of physical processes. It has become common practice to attempt to improve the raw NWP forecasts by statistically adjusting them through a procedure that is widely known as Model Output Statistics (MOS). The challenge is to identify complex patterns of systematic errors and then use this knowledge to adjust the NWP predictions. The MOS-based improvements are the basis for much of the value added by commercial wind power forecast providers. There are an enormous number of statistical approaches that can be used to generate the MOS adjustments to the raw NWP forecasts. In order to obtain insight into the potential value of some of the newer and more sophisticated statistical techniques often referred to as "machine learning methods" a MOS-method comparison experiment has been performed for wind power generation facilities in 6 wind resource areas of California. The underlying NWP models that provided the raw forecasts were the two primary operational models of the US National Weather Service: the GFS and NAM models. The focus was on 1- and 2-day ahead forecasts of the hourly wind-based generation. The statistical methods evaluated included: (1) screening multiple linear regression, which served as a baseline method, (2) artificial neural networks, (3) a decision-tree approach called random forests, (4) gradient boosted regression based upon an decision-tree algorithm, (5) support vector regression and (6) analog ensemble

  1. Solar system exploration - Some thoughts on techniques and technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bekey, Ivan

    1990-01-01

    Some techniques and technologies for proposed interplanetary missions are described. Methods for reducing the effect of zero gravity on humans during missions to Mars and the moon, and the need for launch vehicles with increased lift capability are discussed. The use of nuclear power, liquid oxygen from the moon, and helium 3 as propellants for spacecraft is examined. The development and capabilities of the Shuttle Z vehicle are considered. Attention is given to the Space Station Freedom and Energia. A launch vehicle concept which utilizes the Shuttle Z for a mission to Mars is presented.

  2. A review of hydrogeology research techniques and technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grisak, G.E.; Pickens, J.F.

    1985-06-01

    A review of techniques and technology pertaining to the movement of ground water, solutes/radionuclides and heat through porous and fractured media has been conducted. The theory describing each of these processes has been presented in terms of their partial differential equations. The equations serve as the basis for the identification of processes. These parameters have been discussed in detail with regards to their importance in controlling the overall transport processes. A hypothetical research program has been assembled for the purpose of illustrating the hydrogeologic methods and research techniques applicable to site characterization studies. Areas where the current state of the art is lacking have been identified and the necessary research has been recommended. 103 refs

  3. A Novel Rhinoplasty Sculpture Technique Using Ancient Chinese Architectural Technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogari, Melia; Tan, Andy; Lin, Li; Aung, Zin Mar; Xin, Yu; Xu, Haisong; Chai, Gang; Zhang, Yan

    2017-09-01

    Rhinoplasty is one of the most delicate procedures in plastic and reconstructive surgery. Precision in every millimeter is vital in ensuring a better quality of surgical outcome. Many methods have been developed to fulfill this requirement. One such method is an implant, whether autogenous or artificial. Artificial implants involve several surgical complications, such as recipient rejection of implant material, infections, and rigid feel of the nasal tip. Hence, autogenous implants were eventually more widely applied, with material being obtained from the septum, concha, or rib cartilages. Therefore, the authors developed a new technique of rhinoplasty, using the osteochondral rib as an autogenous implant based on the ancient Chinese architectural technology called the DouGong method. The authors hereby present the results of 288 patients treated in our faculty wherein the data from the patients and the preoperative and postoperative 3-dimensional computed tomography scans were processed using Mimics software. The uniqueness of these implants is that the joint between the nasal dorsum and the columella strut is fixated without any screw, stitches, or K-wire. This procedure proved to be very useful as this technique not only minimized the application of fixation techniques, but also helped achieve a better nasofrontal angle, nasolabial angle, and columella length. After monitoring follow-ups of our patients, the authors hereby propose the use of this DouGong-based novel technique to improve the overall quality and outcome of corrective rhinoplasty.

  4. Weather forecast

    CERN Document Server

    Courtier, P

    1994-02-07

    Weather prediction is performed using the numerical model of the atmosphere evolution.The evolution equations are derived from the Navier Stokes equation for the adiabatic part but the are very much complicated by the change of phase of water, the radiation porocess and the boundary layer.The technique used operationally is described. Weather prediction is an initial value problem and accurate initial conditions need to be specified. Due to the small number of observations available (105 ) as compared to the dimension of the model state variable (107),the problem is largely underdetermined. Techniques of optimal control and inverse problems are used and have been adapted to the large dimension of our problem. our problem.The at mosphere is a chaotic system; the implication for weather prediction is discussed. Ensemble prediction is used operationally and the technique for generating initial conditions which lead to a numerical divergence of the subsequent forecasts is described.

  5. Application of Neural Network Technologies for Price Forecasting in the Liberalized Electricity Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerikh, Valentin; Kolosok, Irina; Kurbatsky, Victor; Tomin, Nikita

    2009-01-01

    The paper presents the results of experimental studies concerning calculation of electricity prices in different price zones in Russia and Europe. The calculations are based on the intelligent software "ANAPRO" that implements the approaches based on the modern methods of data analysis and artificial intelligence technologies.

  6. Forecasting the investors behavior on the capital market in Romania: Trading strategies based on technical analysis versus Artificial Intelligence techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela Victoria Anghelache

    2013-07-01

    The analysis of various forecasting strategies has been conducted using data sets on a daily basis, on a time horizon of nine years, for a total of 22 companies listed on BSE and for the BET and BET-C exchange indexes; the research is differentiating the pre-crisis period and the crisis period.

  7. Technology forecasting for space communication. [analysis of systems for application to Spacecraft Data and Tracking Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    1973-01-01

    A study was conducted to determine techniques for application to space communication. The subjects considered are as follows: (1) optical communication systems, (2) laser communications for data acquisition networks, (3) spacecraft data rate requirements, (4) telemetry, command, and data handling, (5) spacecraft tracking and data network antenna and preamplifier cost tradeoff study, and (6) spacecraft communication terminal evaluation.

  8. Current and Potential Use of Technology Forecasting Tools in the Federal Government

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-01

    emerging technologies, cost factors, and economic and policy implications. The manual process relies on literature reviews by librarians and...discussed in more detail as a case study in Appendix D. In the Healthcare Horizon Scanning System, medical librarians scan publicly available sources such...collaborations between academic and industrial scientists are highlighted could be used to help analysts identify researchers and innovations to track. 3

  9. Assessing the accuracy of forecasting: applying standard diagnostic assessment tools to a health technology early warning system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, Sue; Hyde, Chris; Cook, Alison; Packer, Claire; Stevens, Andrew

    2004-01-01

    Early warning systems are an integral part of many health technology assessment programs. Despite this finding, to date, there have been no quantitative evaluations of the accuracy of predictions made by these systems. We report a study evaluating the accuracy of predictions made by the main United Kingdom early warning system. As prediction of impact is analogous to diagnosis, a method normally applied to determine the accuracy of diagnostic tests was used. The sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of the National Horizon Scanning Centre's prediction methods were estimated with reference to an (imperfect) gold standard, that is, expert opinion of impact 3 to 5 years after prediction. The sensitivity of predictions was 71 percent (95 percent confidence interval [CI], 0.36-0.92), and the specificity was 73 percent (95 percent CI, 0.64-0.8). The negative predictive value was 98 percent (95 percent CI, 0.92-0.99), and the positive predictive value was 14 percent (95 percent CI, 0.06-0.3). Forecasting is difficult, but the results suggest that this early warning system's predictions have an acceptable level of accuracy. However, there are caveats. The first is that early warning systems may themselves reduce the impact of a technology, as helping to control adoption and diffusion is their main purpose. The second is that the use of an imperfect gold standard may bias the results. As early warning systems are viewed as an increasingly important component of health technology assessment and decision making, their outcomes must be evaluated. The method used here should be investigated further and the accuracy of other early warning systems explored.

  10. Day-Ahead Wind Speed Forecasting Using Relevance Vector Machine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guoqiang Sun

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available With the development of wind power technology, the security of the power system, power quality, and stable operation will meet new challenges. So, in this paper, we propose a recently developed machine learning technique, relevance vector machine (RVM, for day-ahead wind speed forecasting. We combine Gaussian kernel function and polynomial kernel function to get mixed kernel for RVM. Then, RVM is compared with back propagation neural network (BP and support vector machine (SVM for wind speed forecasting in four seasons in precision and velocity; the forecast results demonstrate that the proposed method is reasonable and effective.

  11. Radiation technology: synergy with conventional and emerging food preservation techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharma, A.K.

    2006-01-01

    Conservative estimates put post-harvest losses in India between 10-40%. This hidden burden to economy translates to several thousand crore of rupees annually. Of course one reason for these large losses is our hot and humid climate. But mainly it is lack of proper infrastructure and management that is responsible. Inadequate storage, transport and very low processing or value addition to raw produce diminish return to the primary producer. With increasing population, diminishing agricultural land and expensive inputs, we can hardly afford to waste what we produce. It is estimated that by the year 2020 we may need 340 million tones of food grains to feed our ever-increasing population. It is difficult to expect the desired quantum of increase in productivity through conventional or biotechnological means, especially when arable land is shrinking and being progressively degraded. Increased agricultural productivity needs to be complemented with appropriate post-harvest processing technologies, particularly to reduce wastage, improve quality and add value. The article deals with the synergy of radiation technology with conventional and emerging food preservation techniques

  12. Material saving by means of CWR technology using optimization techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez, Iñaki; Ambrosio, Cristina

    2017-10-01

    Material saving is currently a must for the forging companies, as material costs sum up to 50% for parts made of steel and up to 90% in other materials like titanium. For long products, cross wedge rolling (CWR) technology can be used to obtain forging preforms with a suitable distribution of the material along its own axis. However, defining the correct preform dimensions is not an easy task and it could need an intensive trial-and-error campaign. To speed up the preform definition, it is necessary to apply optimization techniques on Finite Element Models (FEM) able to reproduce the material behaviour when being rolled. Meta-models Assisted Evolution Strategies (MAES), that combine evolutionary algorithms with Kriging meta-models, are implemented in FORGE® software and they allow reducing optimization computation costs in a relevant way. The paper shows the application of these optimization techniques to the definition of the right preform for a shaft from a vehicle of the agricultural sector. First, the current forging process, based on obtaining the forging preform by means of an open die forging operation, is showed. Then, the CWR preform optimization is developed by using the above mentioned optimization techniques. The objective is to reduce, as much as possible, the initial billet weight, so that a calculation of flash weight reduction due to the use of the proposed preform is stated. Finally, a simulation of CWR process for the defined preform is carried out to check that most common failures (necking, spirals,..) in CWR do not appear in this case.

  13. Improving wave forecasting by integrating ensemble modelling and machine learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donncha, F.; Zhang, Y.; James, S. C.

    2017-12-01

    Modern smart-grid networks use technologies to instantly relay information on supply and demand to support effective decision making. Integration of renewable-energy resources with these systems demands accurate forecasting of energy production (and demand) capacities. For wave-energy converters, this requires wave-condition forecasting to enable estimates of energy production. Current operational wave forecasting systems exhibit substantial errors with wave-height RMSEs of 40 to 60 cm being typical, which limits the reliability of energy-generation predictions thereby impeding integration with the distribution grid. In this study, we integrate physics-based models with statistical learning aggregation techniques that combine forecasts from multiple, independent models into a single "best-estimate" prediction of the true state. The Simulating Waves Nearshore physics-based model is used to compute wind- and currents-augmented waves in the Monterey Bay area. Ensembles are developed based on multiple simulations perturbing input data (wave characteristics supplied at the model boundaries and winds) to the model. A learning-aggregation technique uses past observations and past model forecasts to calculate a weight for each model. The aggregated forecasts are compared to observation data to quantify the performance of the model ensemble and aggregation techniques. The appropriately weighted ensemble model outperforms an individual ensemble member with regard to forecasting wave conditions.

  14. Forecasting Skill

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-01-01

    indicated that forecasting experience has little relationship to forecasting performance. In the latter three studies, neophyte forecasters became... Europe . Within a few months after a new commander was assigned, this unit’s performance rose to first place in the theater and remained there

  15. Genetic technologies to enhance the Sterile Insect Technique (SIT)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alphey, Luke; Baker, Pam; Condon, George C.; Condon, Kirsty C.; Dafa' alla, Tarig H.; Fu, Guoliang; Jin, Li; Labbe, Genevieve; Morrison, Neil M.; Nimmo, Derric D.; O' Connell, Sinead; Phillips, Caroline E.; Plackett, Andrew; Scaife, Sarah; Woods, Alexander, E-mail: luke.alphey@zoo.ox.ac.u [Oxitec Ltd., Oxford (United Kingdom); Burton, Rosemary S.; Epton, Matthew J.; Gong, Peng [University of Oxford (United Kingdom). Dept. of Zoology

    2006-07-01

    The Sterile Insect Technique (SIT) has been used very successfully against range of pest insects, including various tephritid fruit flies, several moths and a small number of livestock pests. However, modern genetics could potentially provide several improvements that would increase the cost-effectiveness of SIT, and extend the range of suitable species. These include improved identification of released individuals by incorporation of a stable, heritable, genetic marker; built-in sex separation (genetic sexing); reduction of the hazard posed by non-irradiated accidental releases from mass-rearing facility (fail-safe); elimination of the need for sterilization by irradiation (genetic sterilization). We discuss applications of these methods and the state of the art, at the time of this meeting, in developing suitable strains. We have demonstrated, in several key pest species, that the required strains can be constructed by introducing a repressible dominant lethal genetic system, a method known as RIDL(trade mark). Based on field experience with Medfly, incorporation of a genetic sexing system into SIT programs for other tephritids could potentially provide a very significant improvement in cost-effectiveness. We have now been able to make efficient female-lethal strains for Medfly. One advantage of our approach is that it should be possible rapidly to extend this technology to other fruit fly species; indeed we have recently been able also to make genetic sexing strains of Medfly (Anastrepha ludens). (author)

  16. Genetic technologies to enhance the Sterile Insect Technique (SIT)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alphey, Luke; Baker, Pam; Condon, George C.; Condon, Kirsty C.; Dafa'alla, Tarig H.; Fu, Guoliang; Jin, Li; Labbe, Genevieve; Morrison, Neil M.; Nimmo, Derric D.; O'Connell, Sinead; Phillips, Caroline E.; Plackett, Andrew; Scaife, Sarah; Woods, Alexander; Burton, Rosemary S.; Epton, Matthew J.; Gong, Peng

    2006-01-01

    The Sterile Insect Technique (SIT) has been used very successfully against range of pest insects, including various tephritid fruit flies, several moths and a small number of livestock pests. However, modern genetics could potentially provide several improvements that would increase the cost-effectiveness of SIT, and extend the range of suitable species. These include improved identification of released individuals by incorporation of a stable, heritable, genetic marker; built-in sex separation (genetic sexing); reduction of the hazard posed by non-irradiated accidental releases from mass-rearing facility (fail-safe); elimination of the need for sterilization by irradiation (genetic sterilization). We discuss applications of these methods and the state of the art, at the time of this meeting, in developing suitable strains. We have demonstrated, in several key pest species, that the required strains can be constructed by introducing a repressible dominant lethal genetic system, a method known as RIDL(trade mark). Based on field experience with Medfly, incorporation of a genetic sexing system into SIT programs for other tephritids could potentially provide a very significant improvement in cost-effectiveness. We have now been able to make efficient female-lethal strains for Medfly. One advantage of our approach is that it should be possible rapidly to extend this technology to other fruit fly species; indeed we have recently been able also to make genetic sexing strains of Medfly (Anastrepha ludens). (author)

  17. NEEMO 21: Tools, Techniques, Technologies and Training for Science Exploration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graff, T.; Young, K.; Coan, D.; Merselis, D.; Bellantuono, A.; Dougan, K.; Rodriguez-Lanetty, M.; Nedimyer, K.; Chappell, S.; Beaton, K.; hide

    2017-01-01

    The 21st mission of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Extreme Environment Mission Operations (NEEMO) was a highly integrated operational field test and evaluation of tools, techniques, technologies, and training for science driven exploration during extravehicular activity (EVA). The mission was conducted in July 2016 from the Aquarius habitat, an underwater laboratory, off the coast of Key Largo in the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary. An international crew of eight (comprised of NASA and ESA astronauts, engineers, medical personnel, and habitat technicians) lived and worked in and around Aquarius and its surrounding reef environment for 16 days. The integrated testing (both interior and exterior objectives) conducted from this unique facility continues to support current and future human space exploration endeavors. Expanding on the scientific and operational evaluations conducted during NEEMO 20, the 21st NEEMO mission further incorporated a diverse Science Team comprised of planetary geoscientists from the Astromaterials Research and Exploration Science (ARES/XI) Division from the Johnson Space Center, marine scientists from the Department of Biological Sciences at Florida International University (FIU) Integrative Marine Genomics and Symbiosis (IMaGeS) Lab, and conservationists from the Coral Restoration Foundation. The Science Team worked in close coordination with the long-standing EVA operations, planning, engineering, and research components of NEEMO in all aspects of mission planning, development, and execution.

  18. Multidisciplinary studies of the social, economic and political impact resulting from recent advances in satellite meteorology. Volume 6: Executive summary. [technological forecasting spacecraft control/attitude (inclination) -classical mechanics

    Science.gov (United States)

    1975-01-01

    An assessment of the technological impact of modern satellite weather forecasting for the United States is presented. Topics discussed are: (1) television broadcasting of weather; (2) agriculture (crop production); (3) water resources; (4) urban development; (5) recreation; and (6) transportation.

  19. Use of bias correction techniques to improve seasonal forecasts for reservoirs - A case-study in northwestern Mediterranean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcos, Raül; Llasat, Ma Carmen; Quintana-Seguí, Pere; Turco, Marco

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, we have compared different bias correction methodologies to assess whether they could be advantageous for improving the performance of a seasonal prediction model for volume anomalies in the Boadella reservoir (northwestern Mediterranean). The bias correction adjustments have been applied on precipitation and temperature from the European Centre for Middle-range Weather Forecasting System 4 (S4). We have used three bias correction strategies: two linear (mean bias correction, BC, and linear regression, LR) and one non-linear (Model Output Statistics analogs, MOS-analog). The results have been compared with climatology and persistence. The volume-anomaly model is a previously computed Multiple Linear Regression that ingests precipitation, temperature and in-flow anomaly data to simulate monthly volume anomalies. The potential utility for end-users has been assessed using economic value curve areas. We have studied the S4 hindcast period 1981-2010 for each month of the year and up to seven months ahead considering an ensemble of 15 members. We have shown that the MOS-analog and LR bias corrections can improve the original S4. The application to volume anomalies points towards the possibility to introduce bias correction methods as a tool to improve water resource seasonal forecasts in an end-user context of climate services. Particularly, the MOS-analog approach gives generally better results than the other approaches in late autumn and early winter. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Analytical techniques for thin films treatise on materials science and technology

    CERN Document Server

    Tu, K N

    1988-01-01

    Treatise on Materials Science and Technology, Volume 27: Analytical Techniques for Thin Films covers a set of analytical techniques developed for thin films and interfaces, all based on scattering and excitation phenomena and theories. The book discusses photon beam and X-ray techniques; electron beam techniques; and ion beam techniques. Materials scientists, materials engineers, chemical engineers, and physicists will find the book invaluable.

  1. Predictability of machine learning techniques to forecast the trends of market index prices: Hypothesis testing for the Korean stock markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pyo, Sujin; Lee, Jaewook; Cha, Mincheol; Jang, Huisu

    2017-01-01

    The prediction of the trends of stocks and index prices is one of the important issues to market participants. Investors have set trading or fiscal strategies based on the trends, and considerable research in various academic fields has been studied to forecast financial markets. This study predicts the trends of the Korea Composite Stock Price Index 200 (KOSPI 200) prices using nonparametric machine learning models: artificial neural network, support vector machines with polynomial and radial basis function kernels. In addition, this study states controversial issues and tests hypotheses about the issues. Accordingly, our results are inconsistent with those of the precedent research, which are generally considered to have high prediction performance. Moreover, Google Trends proved that they are not effective factors in predicting the KOSPI 200 index prices in our frameworks. Furthermore, the ensemble methods did not improve the accuracy of the prediction.

  2. Predictability of machine learning techniques to forecast the trends of market index prices: Hypothesis testing for the Korean stock markets.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sujin Pyo

    Full Text Available The prediction of the trends of stocks and index prices is one of the important issues to market participants. Investors have set trading or fiscal strategies based on the trends, and considerable research in various academic fields has been studied to forecast financial markets. This study predicts the trends of the Korea Composite Stock Price Index 200 (KOSPI 200 prices using nonparametric machine learning models: artificial neural network, support vector machines with polynomial and radial basis function kernels. In addition, this study states controversial issues and tests hypotheses about the issues. Accordingly, our results are inconsistent with those of the precedent research, which are generally considered to have high prediction performance. Moreover, Google Trends proved that they are not effective factors in predicting the KOSPI 200 index prices in our frameworks. Furthermore, the ensemble methods did not improve the accuracy of the prediction.

  3. Artificial neural networks environmental forecasting in comparison with multiple linear regression technique: From heavy metals to organic micropollutants screening in agricultural soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonelli, Maria Grazia; Ferrini, Mauro; Manni, Andrea

    2016-12-01

    The assessment of metals and organic micropollutants contamination in agricultural soils is a difficult challenge due to the extensive area used to collect and analyze a very large number of samples. With Dioxins and dioxin-like PCBs measurement methods and subsequent the treatment of data, the European Community advises the develop low-cost and fast methods allowing routing analysis of a great number of samples, providing rapid measurement of these compounds in the environment, feeds and food. The aim of the present work has been to find a method suitable to describe the relations occurring between organic and inorganic contaminants and use the value of the latter in order to forecast the former. In practice, the use of a metal portable soil analyzer coupled with an efficient statistical procedure enables the required objective to be achieved. Compared to Multiple Linear Regression, the Artificial Neural Networks technique has shown to be an excellent forecasting method, though there is no linear correlation between the variables to be analyzed.

  4. Towards Predicting Street-Level Inundation: using Operational Forecast Modeling Techniques during 2011 Hurricane Irene in Hampton Roads, VA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loftis, D.; Loftis, J. D.; Stiles, W. A.

    2016-02-01

    Storm surge-induced coastal inundation poses numerous personal, commercial, industrial, and sociopolitical challenges for society. Flooding can be caused by the combination of storm surge and river-induced inland flooding in many locations throughout the coastal plain. The cross-disciplinary nature of the hydrodynamics involved (hydraulics, oceanography, and hydrology), coupled with the complexity of the atmospheric forcing, makes a numerical model the best approach for a comprehensive study of the dynamics of coastal inundation. This study builds upon the lessons learned from forecast modeling experiences during 2011 Hurricane Irene in Tidewater Virginia, to ascertain the most effective way to approach predicting street-level inundation. During the storm event, an open-source large-scale ocean model, SCHISM, was provided atmospheric forcing from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Forecast System, updated every 6 hours to simulate 9 separate 30-hour simulations, which were provided to emergency managers and the National Weather Service in Wakefield, VA. To accurately predict street-level inundation, water elevations at key points near the mouths of vulnerable tributaries can be used to drive a separate street-level high-resolution sub-grid model (UnTRIM) to simulate localized flooding events on the scale of 5-meter resolution. To this end, high-resolution Digital Elevation Models including building and roadway infrastructure were developed from Lidar-derived topography for the Hampton Roads Region of Virginia, and used to accurately predict flooding in low-lying areas of the Cities of Norfolk, Portsmouth, and Chesapeake along the Elizabeth and Lafayette Rivers, the City of Virginia Beach along the Lynnhaven River, and along Hampton, York, and Poquoson along the Back River. Tropical storm surge flood heights were validated via temporal comparison with water level observations from NOAA, the USGS, and NASA aggregated to an average R2

  5. Development of a technique of the rapid analysis for forecasting of possible radionuclides accumulation in the harvest of agricultural crops

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yadgarov, Kh.T.; Pugachev, V.V.; Kim, A.A.

    2005-01-01

    One of the main ways of pollution of plants by radionuclides is the receipt of radionuclides in plants from ground through root system and direct uptake of radionuclides by underground parts of plants. Therefore receipt of radioisotopes in rhizosphere of plants plays the main role in radionuclides accumulation in the plants. For plants cultivation in conditions of radioactive pollution of region it is necessary to estimate the value of possible radionuclides accumulation in a harvest of plants. Such forecasts are necessary at planning of growing of agricultural crops for the food, forage or technical purposes depending on a degree of their pollution by radionuclides. We investigated correlation between the content of strontium - 90 in plants in early phases of their development (20 days time) and in a harvest of plants at a soil way of radionuclide receipt. Our results of study of dependence of strontium - 90 accumulation in a harvest from its content in 20 days time sprouts show, that with reduction of the content of strontium - 90 in 20 days time sprouts, its quantity in a harvest of agriculture cultures is reduced. The correlation analysis of the received data has confirmed positive connection between accumulation of radionuclide in young and adult plants. So, correlation coefficients for a cotton, wheat and barley are 0,89; 0,91 and 0,91 correspondingly. Thus, the direct connection between the contents of strontium - 90 in plants of young age and its accumulation in a harvest of adult plants is established. It enables to predict pollution of' harvest by strontium - 90 under its contents in young plants. Using the received data, with the help of the least- squares method, we have calculated coefficients of the regression equation of a kind: y = a + bx, Where: y - the predicted contents of radionuclide in the harvest; x - the content of radionuclide in 20 days time sprouts; a, b - the empirical coefficients. Rather good coincidence of theoretical calculations and

  6. Human monitoring, smart health and assisted living techniques and technologies

    CERN Document Server

    Longhi, Sauro; Freddi, Alessandro

    2017-01-01

    This book covers the three main scientific and technological areas critical for improving people's quality of life - namely human monitoring, smart health and assisted living - from both the research and development points of view.

  7. Passive RF component technology materials, techniques, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Wang, Guoan

    2012-01-01

    Focusing on novel materials and techniques, this pioneering volume provides you with a solid understanding of the design and fabrication of smart RF passive components. You find comprehensive details on LCP, metal materials, ferrite materials, nano materials, high aspect ratio enabled materials, green materials for RFID, and silicon micromachining techniques. Moreover, this practical book offers expert guidance on how to apply these materials and techniques to design a wide range of cutting-edge RF passive components, from MEMS switch based tunable passives and 3D passives, to metamaterial-bas

  8. Forecast of auroral activity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lui, A.T.Y.

    2004-01-01

    A new technique is developed to predict auroral activity based on a sample of over 9000 auroral sites identified in global auroral images obtained by an ultraviolet imager on the NASA Polar satellite during a 6-month period. Four attributes of auroral activity sites are utilized in forecasting, namely, the area, the power, and the rates of change in area and power. This new technique is quite accurate, as indicated by the high true skill scores for forecasting three different levels of auroral dissipation during the activity lifetime. The corresponding advanced warning time ranges from 22 to 79 min from low to high dissipation levels

  9. Methodical bases of geodemographic forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Катерина Сегіда

    2016-10-01

    techniques of geodemographic forecasting.

  10. Technologies and microstructures for separation techniques in chemical analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spiering, Vincent L.; Spiering, V.L.; Lammerink, Theodorus S.J.; Jansen, Henricus V.; van den Berg, Albert; Fluitman, J.H.J.

    1996-01-01

    The possibilities for microtechnology in chemical analysis and separation techniques are discussed. The combination of the materials and the dimensions of structures can limit the sample and waste volumes on the one hand, but also increases the performance of the chemical systems. Especially in high

  11. Analog/RF Circuit Design Techniques for Nanometerscale IC Technologies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nauta, Bram; Annema, Anne J.

    CMOS evolution introduces several problems in analog design. Gate-leakage mismatch exceeds conventional matching tolerances requiring active cancellation techniques or alternative architectures. One strategy to deal with the use of lower supply voltages is to operate critical parts at higher supply

  12. Strategic Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    as a rebirth of long range planning, albeit with new methods and theories. Firms should make the building of strategic forecasting capability a priority. Research limitations/implications: The article subdivides strategic forecasting into three research avenues and suggests avenues for further research efforts......Purpose: The purpose of this article is to present an overview of the area of strategic forecasting and its research directions and to put forward some ideas for improving management decisions. Design/methodology/approach: This article is conceptual but also informed by the author’s long contact...... and collaboration with various business firms. It starts by presenting an overview of the area and argues that the area is as much a way of thinking as a toolbox of theories and methodologies. It then spells out a number of research directions and ideas for management. Findings: Strategic forecasting is seen...

  13. Exposure Forecaster

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The Exposure Forecaster Database (ExpoCastDB) is EPA's database for aggregating chemical exposure information and can be used to help with chemical exposure...

  14. Comparison between the corrosion forecast based on the potential measurement and the determination of the corrosion rate of the reinforcement bar by means of electrochemical techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Castaneda, A.

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available The ASTA4 876-91 standard establishes a corrosion forecast of concrete reinforced bar by measuring the electrochemical potential. This forecast is based on thermodynamic considerations without taking into account the kinetic of the corrosion process. A comparison was made between the results obtained based on this standard and others using electrochemical techniques (Tafel, Rp, EIS, Electrochemical Noise. These techniques allows to obtain the corrosion rate in samples having 0.4, 0.5 and 0.66 water/cement ratios submitted to salt spray outdoors and by immersion in 3% saline solution during a test time of 20 months. Differences were detected between the results obtained using the ASTM standard and the electrochemical techniques used. The main difference is that samples submitted to immersion shows a higher probability of corrosion than samples submitted to salt spray; however, the electrochemical techniques showed the contrary concerning the corrosion kinetic process .A comparison respecting corrosion rate was also made between the results obtained by the different electrochemical techniques. It is very well known that all electrochemical techniques supposed always general corrosion except electrochemical noise. Using the technique the pitting index can be calculated. It shows that localized corrosion is the most predominant

    La norma ASTM 876-91 establece un pronóstico de corrosión de la barra de refuerzo del hormigón armado mediante la determinación de potenciales electroquímicos. Este pronóstico se basa en consideraciones termodinámicas, sin tener en cuenta la cinética del proceso de corrosión. Se comparan los resultados obtenidos aplicando esta norma con técnicas electroquímicas (Tafel, Rp, EIS, Ruido Electroquímico que permiten calcular la velocidad de corrosión en probetas con relaciones agua/cemento 0,4, 0,5 y 0,66 sometidas a niebla salina en condiciones naturales y en inmersión en solución salina al 3% durante un

  15. Nuclear techniques in the development of advanced ceramic technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Axe, J.D.; Hewat, A.W.; Maier, J.; Margaca, F.M.A.; Rauch, H.

    1999-01-01

    The importance of research, development and application of advanced materials is well understood by all developed and most developing countries. Amongst advanced materials, ceramics play a prominent role due to their specific chemical and physical properties. According to performance and importance, advanced ceramics can be classified as structural ceramics (mechanical function) and the so-called functional ceramics. In the latter class of materials, special electrical, chemical, thermal, magnetic and optical properties are of interest. The most valuable materials are multifunctional, for example, when structural ceramics combine beneficial mechanical properties with thermal and chemical sensitivity. Multifunctionality is characteristic of many composite materials (organic/inorganic composite). Additionally, properties of material can be changed by reducing its dimension (thin films, nanocrystalline ceramics). Nuclear techniques, found important applications in research and development of advanced ceramics. The use of neutron techniques has increased dramatically in recent years due to the development of advanced neutron sources, instrumentation and improved data analysis. Typical neutron techniques are neutron diffraction, neutron radiography, small angle neutron scattering and very small angle neutron scattering. Neutrons can penetrate deeply into most materials thus sampling their bulk properties. In determination of the crystal structure of HTSC, YBa 2 Cu 2 O 7 , XRD located the heavy metal atoms, but failed in finding many of the oxygen atoms, while the neutron diffraction located all atoms equally well in the crystal structure. Neutron diffraction is also unique for the determination of the magnetic structure of materials since the neutrons themselves have a magnetic moment. Application of small angle neutron scattering for the determination of the size of hydrocarbon aggregates within the zeolite channels is illustrated. (author)

  16. Internationalizing undergraduate psychology education: Trends, techniques, and technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takooshian, Harold; Gielen, Uwe P; Plous, Scott; Rich, Grant J; Velayo, Richard S

    2016-01-01

    How can we best internationalize undergraduate psychology education in the United States and elsewhere? This question is more timely than ever, for at least 2 reasons: Within the United States, educators and students seek greater contact with psychology programs abroad, and outside the United States, psychology is growing apace, with educators and students in other nations often looking to U.S. curricula and practices as models. In this article, we outline international developments in undergraduate psychology education both in the United States and abroad, and analyze the dramatic rise of online courses and Internet-based technologies from an instructional and international point of view. Building on the recommendations of the 2005 APA Working Group on Internationalizing the Undergraduate Psychology Curriculum, we then advance 14 recommendations on internationalizing undergraduate psychology education--for students, faculty, and institutions. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  17. Recurrent networks for wave forecasting

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mandal, S.; Prabaharan, N.

    The tremendous increase in offshore operational activities demands improved wave forecasting techniques. With the knowledge of accurate wave conditions, it is possible to carry out the marine activities such as offshore drilling, naval operations...

  18. Estimation technique of corrective effects for forecasting of reliability of the designed and operated objects of the generating systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Truhanov, V. N.; Sultanov, M. M.

    2017-11-01

    In the present article researches of statistical material on the refusals and malfunctions influencing operability of heat power installations have been conducted. In this article the mathematical model of change of output characteristics of the turbine depending on number of the refusals revealed in use has been presented. The mathematical model is based on methods of mathematical statistics, probability theory and methods of matrix calculation. The novelty of this model is that it allows to predict the change of the output characteristic in time, and the operating influences have been presented in an explicit form. As desirable dynamics of change of the output characteristic (function, reliability) the law of distribution of Veybull which is universal is adopted since at various values of parameters it turns into other types of distributions (for example, exponential, normal, etc.) It should be noted that the choice of the desirable law of management allows to determine the necessary management parameters with use of the saved-up change of the output characteristic in general. The output characteristic can be changed both on the speed of change of management parameters, and on acceleration of change of management parameters. In this article the technique of an assessment of the pseudo-return matrix has been stated in detail by the method of the smallest squares and the standard Microsoft Excel functions. Also the technique of finding of the operating effects when finding restrictions both for the output characteristic, and on management parameters has been considered. In the article the order and the sequence of finding of management parameters has been stated. A concrete example of finding of the operating effects in the course of long-term operation of turbines has been shown.

  19. Training manual on food irradiation technology and techniques. 2. ed.

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1982-01-01

    The objective of the revised Training Manual is to help scientists to acquire the necessary knowledge needed for performing proper research and development work in the field of food irradiation. The Manual presents an up-to-date picture of the current state of food irradiation and reflects the important advances made in the technology of food irradiation, in the radiation chemistry of foods, in the microbiology of irradiated foods, in wholesomeness and standardization. It contains the following chapters: (1) Radionuclides and radiation; (2) Radiation detection and measurement; (3) Radiation protection; (4) Radiation chemistry; (5) Effects of radiation on living organisms; (6) Preservation of foods; (7) Radiation preservation of foods; (8) Packaging; (9) Combination processes; (10) Limitations of food irradiation; (11) Wholesomeness of irradiated foods; (12) Government regulation of irradiated foods; (13) Food irradiation facilities; (14) Commercial aspects of food irradiation; (15) Literature sources. The practical part of the Manual contains a revised and expanded series of detailed laboratory exercises in the use of ionizing radiation for food processing

  20. Recent Advances in Spaceborne Precipitation Radar Measurement Techniques and Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Im, Eastwood; Durden, Stephen L.; Tanelli, Simone

    2006-01-01

    NASA is currently developing advanced instrument concepts and technologies for future spaceborne atmospheric radars, with an over-arching objective of making such instruments more capable in supporting future science needs and more cost effective. Two such examples are the Second-Generation Precipitation Radar (PR-2) and the Nexrad-In-Space (NIS). PR-2 is a 14/35-GHz dual-frequency rain radar with a deployable 5-meter, wide-swath scanned membrane antenna, a dual-polarized/dual-frequency receiver, and a realtime digital signal processor. It is intended for Low Earth Orbit (LEO) operations to provide greatly enhanced rainfall profile retrieval accuracy while consuming only a fraction of the mass of the current TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR). NIS is designed to be a 35-GHz Geostationary Earth Orbiting (GEO) radar for providing hourly monitoring of the life cycle of hurricanes and tropical storms. It uses a 35-m, spherical, lightweight membrane antenna and Doppler processing to acquire 3-dimensional information on the intensity and vertical motion of hurricane rainfall.

  1. Adapting a Markov Monte Carlo simulation model for forecasting the number of Coronary Artery Revascularisation Procedures in an era of rapidly changing technology and policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Knuiman Matthew

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Treatments for coronary heart disease (CHD have evolved rapidly over the last 15 years with considerable change in the number and effectiveness of both medical and surgical treatments. This period has seen the rapid development and uptake of statin drugs and coronary artery revascularization procedures (CARPs that include Coronary Artery Bypass Graft procedures (CABGs and Percutaneous Coronary Interventions (PCIs. It is difficult in an era of such rapid change to accurately forecast requirements for treatment services such as CARPs. In a previous paper we have described and outlined the use of a Markov Monte Carlo simulation model for analyzing and predicting the requirements for CARPs for the population of Western Australia (Mannan et al, 2007. In this paper, we expand on the use of this model for forecasting CARPs in Western Australia with a focus on the lack of adequate performance of the (standard model for forecasting CARPs in a period during the mid 1990s when there were considerable changes to CARP technology and implementation policy and an exploration and demonstration of how the standard model may be adapted to achieve better performance. Methods Selected key CARP event model probabilities are modified based on information relating to changes in the effectiveness of CARPs from clinical trial evidence and an awareness of trends in policy and practice of CARPs. These modified model probabilities and the ones obtained by standard methods are used as inputs in our Markov simulation model. Results The projected numbers of CARPs in the population of Western Australia over 1995–99 only improve marginally when modifications to model probabilities are made to incorporate an increase in effectiveness of PCI procedures. However, the projected numbers improve substantially when, in addition, further modifications are incorporated that relate to the increased probability of a PCI procedure and the reduced probability of a CABG

  2. Adapting a Markov Monte Carlo simulation model for forecasting the number of coronary artery revascularisation procedures in an era of rapidly changing technology and policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mannan, Haider R; Knuiman, Matthew; Hobbs, Michael

    2008-06-25

    Treatments for coronary heart disease (CHD) have evolved rapidly over the last 15 years with considerable change in the number and effectiveness of both medical and surgical treatments. This period has seen the rapid development and uptake of statin drugs and coronary artery revascularization procedures (CARPs) that include Coronary Artery Bypass Graft procedures (CABGs) and Percutaneous Coronary Interventions (PCIs). It is difficult in an era of such rapid change to accurately forecast requirements for treatment services such as CARPs. In a previous paper we have described and outlined the use of a Markov Monte Carlo simulation model for analyzing and predicting the requirements for CARPs for the population of Western Australia (Mannan et al, 2007). In this paper, we expand on the use of this model for forecasting CARPs in Western Australia with a focus on the lack of adequate performance of the (standard) model for forecasting CARPs in a period during the mid 1990s when there were considerable changes to CARP technology and implementation policy and an exploration and demonstration of how the standard model may be adapted to achieve better performance. Selected key CARP event model probabilities are modified based on information relating to changes in the effectiveness of CARPs from clinical trial evidence and an awareness of trends in policy and practice of CARPs. These modified model probabilities and the ones obtained by standard methods are used as inputs in our Markov simulation model. The projected numbers of CARPs in the population of Western Australia over 1995-99 only improve marginally when modifications to model probabilities are made to incorporate an increase in effectiveness of PCI procedures. However, the projected numbers improve substantially when, in addition, further modifications are incorporated that relate to the increased probability of a PCI procedure and the reduced probability of a CABG procedure stemming from changed CARP preference

  3. Manufacturing microcomponents for optical information technology using the LIGA technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Hans-Dieter; Ehrfeld, Wolfgang; Hossfeld, Jens; Paatzsch, Thomas

    1999-09-01

    Recently, splices and connectors for fibers ribbons, optical cross connects and especially planar waveguide devices have been fabricated via LIGA in combination with precision engineering techniques. LIGA combines high precision and mass production capability, necessary for products designed for applications in the telecom and datacom market. In this presentation the fabrication of three-level molding and embossing tools is presented, which have been used for the manufacturing of waveguide prestructures consisting of waveguide channels and bier-to-waveguide coupling grooves. The precision of the tools is better than 1 micrometers in all directions, which allows for simple passive pigtailing. A first product, a precision of the tool is better than 1 micrometers in all directions, which allows for simple passive pigtailing. A first product, sixfold array of 4 X 4 multimode star couplers has been realized. The molding behavior of PMMA and COC material has been tested and compared. Production and assembly was tested by fabricating a series of 300 star couplers. The average insertion los has been found better than 9dB, the uniformity better than 3dB, both measured at 830nm. THe device is designed for application in optical backplanes for high-speed computers.

  4. Forecasting metal prices: Do forecasters herd?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pierdzioch, C.; Rulke, J. C.; Stadtmann, G.

    2013-01-01

    We analyze more than 20,000 forecasts of nine metal prices at four different forecast horizons. We document that forecasts are heterogeneous and report that anti-herding appears to be a source of this heterogeneity. Forecaster anti-herding reflects strategic interactions among forecasters...

  5. Western Political Consulting Techniques and Post-Soviet Political Technology in Political Campaigns in Latvia

    OpenAIRE

    Bērziņa, Ieva

    2012-01-01

    Western Political Consulting Techniques and Post-Soviet Political Technology in Political Campaigns in Latvia Ieva Dmitričenko Keywords: political campaignsm political consulting, political technology, parties, marketing, media Political campaigning is an international phenomenon, because there is a free flow of information, knowledge and human resource among practitioners of political campaigning in various countries. As a result political campaigning techniques that have proven to ...

  6. An Overview of Short-term Statistical Forecasting Methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elias, Russell J.; Montgomery, Douglas C.; Kulahci, Murat

    2006-01-01

    An overview of statistical forecasting methodology is given, focusing on techniques appropriate to short- and medium-term forecasts. Topics include basic definitions and terminology, smoothing methods, ARIMA models, regression methods, dynamic regression models, and transfer functions. Techniques...

  7. Evaluation of official tropical cyclone track forecast over north Indian ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    information on overall forecast performance and the relative .... pret the track forecast properly and decide effec- tive cyclone management response actions by the disaster managers. To determine the COU in track forecast, it is essential to know the track forecast ..... ing 140 km based on the latest technology includ-.

  8. Changing teaching techniques and adapting new technologies to improve student learning in an introductory meteorology and climate course

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. M. Cutrim

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Responding to the call for reform in science education, changes were made in an introductory meteorology and climate course offered at a large public university. These changes were a part of a larger project aimed at deepening and extending a program of science content courses that model effective teaching strategies for prospective middle school science teachers. Therefore, revisions were made to address misconceptions about meteorological phenomena, foster deeper understanding of key concepts, encourage engagement with the text, and promote inquiry-based learning. Techniques introduced include: use of a flash cards, student reflection questionnaires, writing assignments, and interactive discussions on weather and forecast data using computer technology such as Integrated Data Viewer (IDV. The revision process is described in a case study format. Preliminary results (self-reflection by the instructor, surveys of student opinion, and measurements of student achievement, suggest student learning has been positively influenced. This study is supported by three grants: NSF grant No. 0202923, the Unidata Equipment Award, and the Lucia Harrison Endowment Fund.

  9. Interactive Forecasting with the National Weather Service River Forecast System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, George F.; Page, Donna

    1993-01-01

    The National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) consists of several major hydrometeorologic subcomponents to model the physics of the flow of water through the hydrologic cycle. The entire NWSRFS currently runs in both mainframe and minicomputer environments, using command oriented text input to control the system computations. As computationally powerful and graphically sophisticated scientific workstations became available, the National Weather Service (NWS) recognized that a graphically based, interactive environment would enhance the accuracy and timeliness of NWS river and flood forecasts. Consequently, the operational forecasting portion of the NWSRFS has been ported to run under a UNIX operating system, with X windows as the display environment on a system of networked scientific workstations. In addition, the NWSRFS Interactive Forecast Program was developed to provide a graphical user interface to allow the forecaster to control NWSRFS program flow and to make adjustments to forecasts as necessary. The potential market for water resources forecasting is immense and largely untapped. Any private company able to market the river forecasting technologies currently developed by the NWS Office of Hydrology could provide benefits to many information users and profit from providing these services.

  10. Advanced digital modulation: Communication techniques and monolithic GaAs technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, S. G.; Oliver, J. D., Jr.; Kot, R. C.; Richards, C. R.

    1983-01-01

    Communications theory and practice are merged with state-of-the-art technology in IC fabrication, especially monolithic GaAs technology, to examine the general feasibility of a number of advanced technology digital transmission systems. Satellite-channel models with (1) superior throughput, perhaps 2 Gbps; (2) attractive weight and cost; and (3) high RF power and spectrum efficiency are discussed. Transmission techniques possessing reasonably simple architectures capable of monolithic fabrication at high speeds were surveyed. This included a review of amplitude/phase shift keying (APSK) techniques and the continuous-phase-modulation (CPM) methods, of which MSK represents the simplest case.

  11. Evaluation of official tropical cyclone track forecast over north Indian ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    algorithms, techniques and observing systems;. • Evaluation of value addition by forecasters to guidance .... IMD Global Forecast system (GFS), European cen- tre for Medium range Weather forecast (ECMWF), ...... NHC USA 2012 Forecast verification report, National. Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, http://www.

  12. Short-term residential load forecasting: Impact of calendar effects and forecast granularity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lusis, Peter; Khalilpour, Kaveh Rajab; Andrew, Lachlan

    2017-01-01

    forecasting for a single-customer or even down at an appliance level. Access to high resolution data from smart meters has enabled the research community to assess conventional load forecasting techniques and develop new forecasting strategies suitable for demand-side disaggregated loads. This paper studies...

  13. PRONOSTICANDO EL ÍNDICE ENSO VARIOS PASOS EN ADELANTE MEDIANTE TÉCNICAS DE MODELAMIENTO NO LINEAL FORECASTING ENSO SEVERAL STEPS AHEAD THROUGH NONLINEAR MODELING TECHNIQUES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Salini Calderón

    2010-12-01

    we studied a monthly database corresponding to South Oscillation Index (SOI and between the years 1886 to 2006. It explains how there must manipulated this database whose data possess nonlinear characteristic, which will be used to do forecasts several steps ahead. Two standard tests to this database were applied, the Average Mutual Information (AMI and the False Nearest Neighbours (FNN. The optimal spacing of the information was obtained as well as the number of values backward necessary to predict values towards the future. Then, several models were designed of artificial neural nets (ANN, with different learning rules, function of transfer, elements of process (or neurons in the hidden layer, etc., that allowed to do forecasting of up to 20 steps ahead. The best networks were those that possessed the rules of learning called extDBD and Delta-Rule, and sigmoid as well as hyperbolic tangent as function of transfer. The type of used network was one of feedforward multilayer perceptron and trained by means of backpropagation technique. Networks were proved by one, two hidden layers and without any hidden layer. The best model that was obtained it turned out to be one that consisted with an alone hidden layer.

  14. Clear Air Turbulence Forecasting Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    1984-02-01

    For these boxes, both Ponitive and ne ti.vO AP are used; that is, the absolute value of AP is used in Piqure 13. -30- ACCEPTABLE WIND LOWEST PRESSURE...maximum. -36- .1 a. Early stage. Potential is greatest between surface wave cre t/ triple point and upper \\ _ level thermal trough. This holds for all

  15. Applying Different Independent Component Analysis Algorithms and Support Vector Regression for IT Chain Store Sales Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Wensheng

    2014-01-01

    Sales forecasting is one of the most important issues in managing information technology (IT) chain store sales since an IT chain store has many branches. Integrating feature extraction method and prediction tool, such as support vector regression (SVR), is a useful method for constructing an effective sales forecasting scheme. Independent component analysis (ICA) is a novel feature extraction technique and has been widely applied to deal with various forecasting problems. But, up to now, only the basic ICA method (i.e., temporal ICA model) was applied to sale forecasting problem. In this paper, we utilize three different ICA methods including spatial ICA (sICA), temporal ICA (tICA), and spatiotemporal ICA (stICA) to extract features from the sales data and compare their performance in sales forecasting of IT chain store. Experimental results from a real sales data show that the sales forecasting scheme by integrating stICA and SVR outperforms the comparison models in terms of forecasting error. The stICA is a promising tool for extracting effective features from branch sales data and the extracted features can improve the prediction performance of SVR for sales forecasting. PMID:25165740

  16. Emerging Technologies and Techniques for Wide Area Radiological Survey and Remediation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sutton, M. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Zhao, P. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2016-03-24

    Technologies to survey and decontaminate wide-area contamination and process the subsequent radioactive waste have been developed and implemented following the Chernobyl nuclear power plant release and the breach of a radiological source resulting in contamination in Goiania, Brazil. These civilian examples of radioactive material releases provided some of the first examples of urban radiological remediation. Many emerging technologies have recently been developed and demonstrated in Japan following the release of radioactive cesium isotopes (Cs-134 and Cs-137) from the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant in 2011. Information on technologies reported by several Japanese government agencies, such as the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA), the Ministry of the Environment (MOE) and the National Institute for Environmental Science (NIES), together with academic institutions and industry are summarized and compared to recently developed, deployed and available technologies in the United States. The technologies and techniques presented in this report may be deployed in response to a wide area contamination event in the United States. In some cases, additional research and testing is needed to adequately validate the technology effectiveness over wide areas. Survey techniques can be deployed on the ground or from the air, allowing a range of coverage rates and sensitivities. Survey technologies also include those useful in measuring decontamination progress and mapping contamination. Decontamination technologies and techniques range from non-destructive (e.g., high pressure washing) and minimally destructive (plowing), to fully destructive (surface removal or demolition). Waste minimization techniques can greatly impact the long-term environmental consequences and cost following remediation efforts. Recommendations on technical improvements to address technology gaps are presented together with observations on remediation in Japan.

  17. The impact of information technology on productivity using structural equations technique in Iran Behnoush Company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mina Beig

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Information technology plays an important role on increasing productivity in many organizations. The primary objective of the present survey is to study the impact of information technology on productivity and find a positive and significant relationship between these two factors. Structural equations technique and LISREL software are used for analysis of the questionnaires distributed among managers and some employees of Iran Behnoush Company. Organizations try to improve their performance by investment in information technology. However, many of the previous studies indicate insignificance of the impact of information technology on productivity of the organizations. The present survey studies the impact of information technology on organizations' productivity through the collected data from the above company. Results confirm existence of a positive relationship between information technology and productivity.

  18. Funding of energy research: BMFT expenditures for energy research and energy technologies, 3rd program, a review and a forecast

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacke, S.

    1990-01-01

    Between the early sixties and late 1989, the German Federal Government spent some DM 23 billion to support research and development of the entire field of nuclear technology (such as fundamental research, industrial applications, medicine, safety technology, advanced energy systems) in the Federal Republic of Germany. Of this amount, approx. DM 11 billion was spent on the technology of nuclear power plants equipped with light water reactors, on safety research, and on the nuclear fuel cycle. Comparing the expenditures of the Federal Government for the conversion of nuclear power into electricity with the savings achieved in electricity generating costs of approx. DM 58 billion by late 1989 (the cost advantage of nuclear power being approx. Pf 5/kWh), one arrives at a cost advantage to the whole economy of approx. DM 47 billion by the date shown above; by the year 2000, this advantage will have risen to some DM 150 billion. (orig.) [de

  19. Rain gauge network design for flood forecasting using multi-criteria decision analysis and clustering techniques in lower Mahanadi river basin, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anil Kumar Kar

    2015-09-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: This study establishes different possible key RG networks using Hall’s method, analytical hierarchical process (AHP, self organization map (SOM and hierarchical clustering (HC using the characteristics of each rain gauge occupied Thiessen polygon area. Efficiency of the key networks is tested by artificial neural network (ANN, Fuzzy and NAM rainfall-runoff models. Furthermore, flood forecasting has been carried out using the three most effective RG networks which uses only 7 RGs instead of 14 gauges established in the Kantamal sub-catchment, Mahanadi basin. The Fuzzy logic applied on the key RG network derived using AHP has shown the best result for flood forecasting with efficiency of 82.74% for 1-day lead period. This study demonstrates the design procedure of key RG network for effective flood forecasting particularly when there is difficulty in gathering the information from all RGs.

  20. Cyber Science, Biometrics and Digital Forensics: Workshop on Emerging Cyber Techniques and Technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-09-07

    journals : Final Report Proceedings: Cyber Science, Biometrics and Digital Forensics: Workshop on Emerging Cyber Techniques and Technologies Report...and Digital Forensics. Through this one-day workshop, over fifteen feature presentations were made and the group held two Panels to discuss...09-2016 10-Jul-2015 9-Jul-2016 Final Report Proceedings: Cyber Science, Biometrics and Digital Forensics: Workshop on Emerging Cyber Techniques and

  1. FORMATION OF COGNITIVE INTEREST AT ENGLISH LANGUAGE LESSONS IN PRIMARY SCHOOL: TECHNOLOGIES, METHODS, TECHNIQUES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kotova, E.G.

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available There are a lot of didactic and technological methods and techniques that shape and develop cognitive interest of primary school students in modern methodology of teaching foreign languages. The use of various forms of gaming interaction, problem assignments, information and communication technologies in the teaching of primary school students allows diversifying the teaching of a foreign language, contributes to the development of their creative and cognitive activity. The use of health-saving technologies ensures the creation of a psychologically and emotionally supportive atmosphere at the lesson, which is an essential condition for acquiring new knowledge and maintaining stable cognitive interest among students while learning a foreign language.

  2. Technical and Economic Forecast in Selection of Optimum Biomass and Local Fossil Fuel Application Technology for Thermal Electric Energy Generation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Bokun

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper provides a technical and economic analysis pertaining to selection of optimum biomass and local fossil fuel application technology for thermal electric energy generation while using a matrix of costs and a method of minimum value. Calculation results give grounds to assert that it is expedient to burn in the boiling layer – 69 % and 31 % of wood pellets and wastes, respectively and 54 % of peat and 46 % of slate stones. A steam and gas unit (SGU can fully operate on peat. Taking into account reorientation on decentralized power supply and increase of small power plants up to 3–5 MW the paper specifies variants of the most efficient technologies for burning biomass and local fossil fuels. 

  3. Forecast analysis on satellites that need de-orbit technologies: future scenarios for passive de-orbit devices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palla, Chiara; Kingston, Jennifer

    2016-09-01

    Propulsion-based de-orbit is a space-proven technology; however, this strategy can strongly limit operational lifetime, as fuel mass is dedicated to the de-orbiting. In addition previous reliability studies have identified the propulsion subsystem as one of the major contributors driving satellite failures. This issue brings the need to develop affordable de-orbit technologies with a limited reliance on the system level performance of the host satellite, ideally largely passive methods. Passive disposal strategies which take advantage of aerodynamic drag as the de-orbit force are particularly attractive because they are independent of spacecraft propulsion capabilities. This paper investigates the future market for passive de-orbit devices in LEO to aid in defining top-level requirements for the design of such devices. This is performed by considering the compliances of projected future satellites with the Inter Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee de-orbit time, to quantify the number of spacecraft that are compliant or non-compliant with the guidelines and, in this way, determine their need for the previously discussed devices. The study is performed by using the SpaceTrak™ database which provides future launch schedules, and spacecraft information; the de-orbit analysis is carried out by means of simulations with STELA. A case study of a passive strategy is given by the de-orbit mechanism technological demonstrator, which is currently under development at Cranfield University and designed to deploy a drag sail at the end of the ESEO satellite mission.

  4. An Overview of Short-term Statistical Forecasting Methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elias, Russell J.; Montgomery, Douglas C.; Kulahci, Murat

    2006-01-01

    An overview of statistical forecasting methodology is given, focusing on techniques appropriate to short- and medium-term forecasts. Topics include basic definitions and terminology, smoothing methods, ARIMA models, regression methods, dynamic regression models, and transfer functions. Techniques...... for evaluating and monitoring forecast performance are also summarized....

  5. Recent Progress of Solar Weather Forecasting at Naoc

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Han; Wang, Huaning; Du, Zhanle; Zhang, Liyun; Huang, Xin; Yan, Yan; Fan, Yuliang; Zhu, Xiaoshuai; Guo, Xiaobo; Dai, Xinghua

    The history of solar weather forecasting services at National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences (NAOC) can be traced back to 1960s. Nowadays, NAOC is the headquarters of the Regional Warning Center of China (RWC-China), which is one of the members of the International Space Environment Service (ISES). NAOC is responsible for exchanging data, information and space weather forecasts of RWC-China with other RWCs. The solar weather forecasting services at NAOC cover short-term prediction (within two or three days), medium-term prediction (within several weeks), and long-term prediction (in time scale of solar cycle) of solar activities. Most efforts of the short-term prediction research are concentrated on the solar eruptive phenomena, such as flares, coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar proton events, which are the key driving sources of strong space weather disturbances. Based on the high quality observation data of the latest space-based and ground-based solar telescopes and with the help of artificial intelligence techniques, new numerical models with quantitative analyses and physical consideration are being developed for the predictions of solar eruptive events. The 3-D computer simulation technology is being introduced for the operational solar weather service platform to visualize the monitoring of solar activities, the running of the prediction models, as well as the presenting of the forecasting results. A new generation operational solar weather monitoring and forecasting system is expected to be constructed in the near future at NAOC.

  6. Just-in-Time Teaching Techniques through Web Technologies for Vocational Students' Reading and Writing Abilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chantoem, Rewadee; Rattanavich, Saowalak

    2016-01-01

    This research compares the English language achievements of vocational students, their reading and writing abilities, and their attitudes towards learning English taught with just-in-time teaching techniques through web technologies and conventional methods. The experimental and control groups were formed, a randomized true control group…

  7. The Effects of Animation Technique on the 7th Grade Science and Technology Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aksoy, Gökhan

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of animation technique on academic achievement of students in the "Human and Environment" unit lectured as part of the Science and Technology course of the seventh grade in primary education. The sample of the study consists of 58 students attending to the 7th grade of Erzurum MEB…

  8. Applications of Modern Analysis Techniques in Searching back Ancient Art Ceramic Technologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nguyen Quang Liem

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This report highlights the promising applications of modern analysis techniques such as Scanning Electron Microsopy, X-ray fluorescence, X-ray diffraction, Raman scattering spectroscopy, and thermal expansion measurement in searching back the ancient art ceramics technologies.

  9. Development and verification of a new wind speed forecasting system using an ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation technique in a fully coupled hydrologic and atmospheric model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, John L.; Maxwell, Reed M.; Monache, Luca Delle

    2013-12-01

    Wind power is rapidly gaining prominence as a major source of renewable energy. Harnessing this promising energy source is challenging because of the chaotic nature of wind and its inherently intermittent nature. Accurate forecasting tools are critical to support the integration of wind energy into power grids and to maximize its impact on renewable energy portfolios. We have adapted the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART), a community software facility which includes the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) algorithm, to expand our capability to use observational data to improve forecasts produced with a fully coupled hydrologic and atmospheric modeling system, the ParFlow (PF) hydrologic model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale atmospheric model, coupled via mass and energy fluxes across the land surface, and resulting in the PF.WRF model. Numerous studies have shown that soil moisture distribution and land surface vegetative processes profoundly influence atmospheric boundary layer development and weather processes on local and regional scales. We have used the PF.WRF model to explore the connections between the land surface and the atmosphere in terms of land surface energy flux partitioning and coupled variable fields including hydraulic conductivity, soil moisture, and wind speed and demonstrated that reductions in uncertainty in these coupled fields realized through assimilation of soil moisture observations propagate through the hydrologic and atmospheric system. The sensitivities found in this study will enable further studies to optimize observation strategies to maximize the utility of the PF.WRF-DART forecasting system.

  10. A Wind Forecasting System for Energy Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Courtney, Jennifer; Lynch, Peter; Sweeney, Conor

    2010-05-01

    Accurate forecasting of available energy is crucial for the efficient management and use of wind power in the national power grid. With energy output critically dependent upon wind strength there is a need to reduce the errors associated wind forecasting. The objective of this research is to get the best possible wind forecasts for the wind energy industry. To achieve this goal, three methods are being applied. First, a mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model called WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) is being used to predict wind values over Ireland. Currently, a gird resolution of 10km is used and higher model resolutions are being evaluated to establish whether they are economically viable given the forecast skill improvement they produce. Second, the WRF model is being used in conjunction with ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) ensemble forecasts to produce a probabilistic weather forecasting product. Due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, a single, deterministic weather forecast can only have limited skill. The ECMWF ensemble methods produce an ensemble of 51 global forecasts, twice a day, by perturbing initial conditions of a 'control' forecast which is the best estimate of the initial state of the atmosphere. This method provides an indication of the reliability of the forecast and a quantitative basis for probabilistic forecasting. The limitation of ensemble forecasting lies in the fact that the perturbed model runs behave differently under different weather patterns and each model run is equally likely to be closest to the observed weather situation. Models have biases, and involve assumptions about physical processes and forcing factors such as underlying topography. Third, Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is being applied to the output from the ensemble forecasts in order to statistically post-process the results and achieve a better wind forecasting system. BMA is a promising technique that will offer calibrated

  11. Forecasting Infectious Disease Outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaman, J. L.

    2015-12-01

    Dynamic models of infectious disease systems abound and are used to study the epidemiological characteristics of disease outbreaks, the ecological mechanisms affecting transmission, and the suitability of various control and intervention strategies. The dynamics of disease transmission are non-linear and consequently difficult to forecast. Here, we describe combined model-inference frameworks developed for the prediction of infectious diseases. We show that accurate and reliable predictions of seasonal influenza outbreaks can be made using a mathematical model representing population-level influenza transmission dynamics that has been recursively optimized using ensemble data assimilation techniques and real-time estimates of influenza incidence. Operational real-time forecasts of influenza and other infectious diseases have been and are currently being generated.

  12. Automation of energy demand forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siddique, Sanzad

    Automation of energy demand forecasting saves time and effort by searching automatically for an appropriate model in a candidate model space without manual intervention. This thesis introduces a search-based approach that improves the performance of the model searching process for econometrics models. Further improvements in the accuracy of the energy demand forecasting are achieved by integrating nonlinear transformations within the models. This thesis introduces machine learning techniques that are capable of modeling such nonlinearity. Algorithms for learning domain knowledge from time series data using the machine learning methods are also presented. The novel search based approach and the machine learning models are tested with synthetic data as well as with natural gas and electricity demand signals. Experimental results show that the model searching technique is capable of finding an appropriate forecasting model. Further experimental results demonstrate an improved forecasting accuracy achieved by using the novel machine learning techniques introduced in this thesis. This thesis presents an analysis of how the machine learning techniques learn domain knowledge. The learned domain knowledge is used to improve the forecast accuracy.

  13. No. 193-Laparoscopic Entry: A Review of Techniques, Technologies, and Complications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilos, George A; Ternamian, Artin; Dempster, Jeffrey; Laberge, Philippe Y

    2017-07-01

    To provide clinical direction, based on the best evidence available, on laparoscopic entry techniques and technologies and their associated complications. The laparoscopic entry techniques and technologies reviewed in formulating this guideline include the classic pneumoperitoneum (Veress/trocar), the open (Hasson), the direct trocar insertion, the use of disposable shielded trocars, radially expanding trocars, and visual entry systems. Implementation of this guideline should optimize the decision-making process in choosing a particular technique to enter the abdomen during laparoscopy. English-language articles from Medline, PubMed, and the Cochrane Database published before the end of September 2005 were searched, using the key words laparoscopic entry, laparoscopy access, pneumoperitoneum, Veress needle, open (Hasson), direct trocar, visual entry, shielded trocars, radially expanded trocars, and laparoscopic complications. The quality of evidence was rated using the criteria described in the Report of the Canadian Task Force on the Periodic Health Examination. RECOMMENDATIONS AND SUMMARY STATEMENT. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  14. The Effect of Learning Based on Technology Model and Assessment Technique toward Thermodynamic Learning Achievement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makahinda, T.

    2018-02-01

    The purpose of this research is to find out the effect of learning model based on technology and assessment technique toward thermodynamic achievement by controlling students intelligence. This research is an experimental research. The sample is taken through cluster random sampling with the total respondent of 80 students. The result of the research shows that the result of learning of thermodynamics of students who taught the learning model of environmental utilization is higher than the learning result of student thermodynamics taught by simulation animation, after controlling student intelligence. There is influence of student interaction, and the subject between models of technology-based learning with assessment technique to student learning result of Thermodynamics, after controlling student intelligence. Based on the finding in the lecture then should be used a thermodynamic model of the learning environment with the use of project assessment technique.

  15. Technology and Technique Standards for Camera-Acquired Digital Dermatologic Images: A Systematic Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quigley, Elizabeth A; Tokay, Barbara A; Jewell, Sarah T; Marchetti, Michael A; Halpern, Allan C

    2015-08-01

    Photographs are invaluable dermatologic diagnostic, management, research, teaching, and documentation tools. Digital Imaging and Communications in Medicine (DICOM) standards exist for many types of digital medical images, but there are no DICOM standards for camera-acquired dermatologic images to date. To identify and describe existing or proposed technology and technique standards for camera-acquired dermatologic images in the scientific literature. Systematic searches of the PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane databases were performed in January 2013 using photography and digital imaging, standardization, and medical specialty and medical illustration search terms and augmented by a gray literature search of 14 websites using Google. Two reviewers independently screened titles of 7371 unique publications, followed by 3 sequential full-text reviews, leading to the selection of 49 publications with the most recent (1985-2013) or detailed description of technology or technique standards related to the acquisition or use of images of skin disease (or related conditions). No universally accepted existing technology or technique standards for camera-based digital images in dermatology were identified. Recommendations are summarized for technology imaging standards, including spatial resolution, color resolution, reproduction (magnification) ratios, postacquisition image processing, color calibration, compression, output, archiving and storage, and security during storage and transmission. Recommendations are also summarized for technique imaging standards, including environmental conditions (lighting, background, and camera position), patient pose and standard view sets, and patient consent, privacy, and confidentiality. Proposed standards for specific-use cases in total body photography, teledermatology, and dermoscopy are described. The literature is replete with descriptions of obtaining photographs of skin disease, but universal imaging standards have not been developed

  16. Analysis of the development and diffusion of technological innovations in oil spill forecasting: The MEDESS-4MS case

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcati, Alberto; Prete, M. Irene; Mileti, Antonio; Cortese, Mario; Zodiatis, George; Karaolia, Andria; Gauci, Adam; Drago, Aldo

    2016-11-01

    This paper presents a case study on the management of users' engagement in the development of a new technology. Based on the experience of MEDESS-4MS, an integrated operational model for oil spill Decision Support System covering the whole Mediterranean Sea, the case study is aimed at the development of a framework for user engagement and for the management of its dual logic. Indeed, users may play a dual role in the innovation process, contributing to both the design of the innovation and its promotion. Users contribute to shaping the innovation, by aggregating and integrating knowledge, and they facilitate its diffusion, by adopting the innovation and fostering its adoption within the socio-economic system.

  17. ktup Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. ktop Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kfxe Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kmsy Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kroc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kacv Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. katw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. klax Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. ksea Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. pafa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kprc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. katl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kmcn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kogb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kama Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kbjc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. klch Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kpkb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. ptkk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. konp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kiwa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kbwi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kavp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kont Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kdca Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kbwg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kyng Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kdfw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kssi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. pahn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. nstu Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. ksmn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. ksrq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kbfi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. pamc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kpvd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kisp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kttd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. pmdy Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. koxr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kggg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. panc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kswf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kmsp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kpsp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kpih Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. khot Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. krut Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kmhk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kcxo Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. katy Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. krdd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kabq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kjfk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kbna Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kbvi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kiah Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kbzn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kfnt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kbpt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kilm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kspi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kclm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kipl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kpbi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kgdv Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. krdg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kbgm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kcmx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kdls Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. koaj Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. krhi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kbpk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kcwa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. pawg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kgfl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. pgwt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. khuf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. pabr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kewn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kipt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kpeq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kdug Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. klbt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kcys Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. khio Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kflo Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. klaf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kmlu Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kact Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. khob Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. ktcs Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kdnl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kmgw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kryy Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kgtf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kjax Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. ktvf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kfat Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kink Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kshv Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. pajn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kpna Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. ktph Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. ksux Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kcon Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kpnc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kgsp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kgpt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kgcn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kart Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. pagk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. korf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kpsm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kcre Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. papg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. krdu Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kluk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. keed Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kiwd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kttn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kagc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kbmi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kapn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kgon Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. Development of a sales forecasting model for canopy windows

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    M.Com. (Business Management) Forecasting is an important function used in a wide range of business planning or decision-making situations. The purpose ofthis study was to build a sales forecasting model that would be practical and cost effective, from the various forecasting methods and techniques available. Various forecast models, methods and techniques are outlined in the initial part of this study by the author. The author has outlined some of the fundamentals and limitations that unde...

  6. Research on the development of green chemistry technology assessment techniques: a material reutilization case.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Seokpyo; Ahn, Kilsoo; Kim, Sungjune; Gong, Sungyong

    2015-01-01

    This study presents a methodology that enables a quantitative assessment of green chemistry technologies. The study carries out a quantitative evaluation of a particular case of material reutilization by calculating the level of "greenness" i.e., the level of compliance with the principles of green chemistry that was achieved by implementing a green chemistry technology. The results indicate that the greenness level was enhanced by 42% compared to the pre-improvement level, thus demonstrating the economic feasibility of green chemistry. The assessment technique established in this study will serve as a useful reference for setting the direction of industry-level and government-level technological R&D and for evaluating newly developed technologies, which can greatly contribute toward gaining a competitive advantage in the global market.

  7. FORECASTING THE NUMBER OF SPORT TOURISM ARRIVALS IN SOUTHWEST BULGARIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Preslav Mihaylov Dimitrov

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an application of some forecasting methods concerning sport tourism arrivals in Southwest Bulgaria: linear trend forecasting, double exponential forecasting (Holt’s method, triple exponential forecasting (the Holt-Winters Method, and the ARIMA method. A specially designed model for estimating the weight coefficient needed for determining the size of the sport tourism’s sector in the time series of the available data and in the forecast values is presented. In order to test the forecasting methods and produce forecasts up to the year 2030, a time series and past period predictions have been constructed based on statistical records since 1964. Several major problems in the application of the exponential smoothing methods for the purpose of the long-run forecasting and the needs of the sport tourism subsector of Bulgaria tourism industry are addressed. These problems include (a finding a suitable general indicator, (b calculating short-term and long-term forecasts, (c comparing the results of the forecast techniques on the basis of the errors in the forecasts, (d estimating the size of the sport tourism in Southwest Bulgaria in certain terms so that the forecast(s of the above-mentioned general indicator could be particularized especially for examined sub-sector and region. The results from the different forecasting methods and techniques are presented and conclusions are drawn regarding the reliability of the forecasts.

  8. Estimation of predictive hydrological uncertainty using quantile regression : Examples from the National Flood Forecasting System (England and Wales)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weerts, A.H.; Winsemius, H.C.; Verkade, J.S.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, a technique is presented for assessing the predictive uncertainty of rainfall-runoff and hydraulic forecasts. The technique conditions forecast uncertainty on the forecasted value itself, based on retrospective Quantile Regression of hindcasted water level forecasts and forecast

  9. Landscaping climate change: a mapping technique for understanding science and technology debates on the world wide web

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rogers, R.; Marres, N.

    2000-01-01

    New World Wide Web (web) mapping techniques may inform and ultimately facilitate meaningful participation in current science and technology debates. The technique described here "landscapes" a debate by displaying key "webby" relationships between organizations. "Debate-scaping" plots two

  10. An overview of technologies for immobilization of enzymes and surface analysis techniques for immobilized enzymes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohamad, Nur Royhaila; Marzuki, Nur Haziqah Che; Buang, Nor Aziah; Huyop, Fahrul; Wahab, Roswanira Abdul

    2015-01-01

    The current demands of sustainable green methodologies have increased the use of enzymatic technology in industrial processes. Employment of enzyme as biocatalysts offers the benefits of mild reaction conditions, biodegradability and catalytic efficiency. The harsh conditions of industrial processes, however, increase propensity of enzyme destabilization, shortening their industrial lifespan. Consequently, the technology of enzyme immobilization provides an effective means to circumvent these concerns by enhancing enzyme catalytic properties and also simplify downstream processing and improve operational stability. There are several techniques used to immobilize the enzymes onto supports which range from reversible physical adsorption and ionic linkages, to the irreversible stable covalent bonds. Such techniques produce immobilized enzymes of varying stability due to changes in the surface microenvironment and degree of multipoint attachment. Hence, it is mandatory to obtain information about the structure of the enzyme protein following interaction with the support surface as well as interactions of the enzymes with other proteins. Characterization technologies at the nanoscale level to study enzymes immobilized on surfaces are crucial to obtain valuable qualitative and quantitative information, including morphological visualization of the immobilized enzymes. These technologies are pertinent to assess efficacy of an immobilization technique and development of future enzyme immobilization strategies. PMID:26019635

  11. Forecasting the zeolite-containing catalyst activity in catalytic cracking technology taking into account the feedstock composition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivashkina, Elena; Nazarova, Galina; Shafran, Tatyana; Stebeneva, Valeriya

    2017-08-01

    The effect of the feedstock composition and the process conditions on the current catalyst activity in catalytic cracking technology using a mathematical model is performed in this research. The mathematical model takes into account the catalyst deactivation by coke for primary and secondary cracking reactions. The investigation results have shown that the feedstock has significant effect on the yield and the content of coke on the catalyst. Thus, the relative catalyst activity is significantly reduced by 7.5-10.7 %. With increasing the catalytic cracking temperature due to the catalyst flow temperature rising, the coke content and the yield per feedstock increase and the catalyst activity decreases by 5.3-7.7%. Rising the process temperature together with the catalyst circulation ratio contributes to increase of the coke yield per feedstock in the catalytic cracking and decrease of the coke content on the catalyst. It is connected with the catalyst flow rising to the riser and the contact time decreasing in the reaction zone. Also, the catalyst activity decreases in the range of 3.8-5.5% relatively to the regenerated catalyst activity (83 %).

  12. Technology development for cutting a reactor pressure vessel using a mechanical cutting technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watanabe, Masaaki; Miyasaka, Yasuhiko; Miyao, Hidehiko; Ooki, Arahiko; Ninomiya, Toshiaki; Koiwai, Masami

    2001-01-01

    On decommissioning of nuclear facilities, the thermal cutting technique such as an oxygen-acetylene gas cutting and a plasma arc cutting are generally used for cutting massive and thick steel structures in consideration with cutting speed and control performance. These techniques generate dust, smoke, aerosol and a large quantity of secondary waste. Mechanical cutting technique has an advantage of small amount of secondary waste, and the metal chips from the kerf recovered easily compared with these thermal cutting technique. The remote mechanical cutting system for highly activated RPV has been developed with the manner which achieves the safety and cost effectiveness. The development has been performed on consignment to RANDEC from the Science and Technology Agency of Japan. (author)

  13. An Optimization of Inventory Demand Forecasting in University Healthcare Centre

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bon, A. T.; Ng, T. K.

    2017-01-01

    Healthcare industry becomes an important field for human beings nowadays as it concerns about one’s health. With that, forecasting demand for health services is an important step in managerial decision making for all healthcare organizations. Hence, a case study was conducted in University Health Centre to collect historical demand data of Panadol 650mg for 68 months from January 2009 until August 2014. The aim of the research is to optimize the overall inventory demand through forecasting techniques. Quantitative forecasting or time series forecasting model was used in the case study to forecast future data as a function of past data. Furthermore, the data pattern needs to be identified first before applying the forecasting techniques. Trend is the data pattern and then ten forecasting techniques are applied using Risk Simulator Software. Lastly, the best forecasting techniques will be find out with the least forecasting error. Among the ten forecasting techniques include single moving average, single exponential smoothing, double moving average, double exponential smoothing, regression, Holt-Winter’s additive, Seasonal additive, Holt-Winter’s multiplicative, seasonal multiplicative and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). According to the forecasting accuracy measurement, the best forecasting technique is regression analysis.

  14. Ensemble forecasts of road surface temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sokol, Zbyněk; Bližňák, Vojtěch; Sedlák, Pavel; Zacharov, Petr; Pešice, Petr; Škuthan, Miroslav

    2017-05-01

    This paper describes a new ensemble technique for road surface temperature (RST) forecasting using an energy balance and heat conduction model. Compared to currently used deterministic forecasts, the proposed technique allows the estimation of forecast uncertainty and probabilistic forecasts. The ensemble technique is applied to the METRo-CZ model and stems from error covariance analyses of the forecasted air temperature and humidity 2 m above the ground, wind speed at 10 m and total cloud cover N in octas by the numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. N is used to estimate the shortwave and longwave radiation fluxes. These variables are used to calculate the boundary conditions in the METRo-CZ model. We found that the variable N is crucial for generating the ensembles. Nevertheless, the ensemble spread is too small and underestimates the uncertainty in the RST forecast. One of the reasons is not considering errors in the rain and snow forecast by the NWP model when generating ensembles. Technical issues, such as incorrect sky view factors and the current state of road surface conditions also contribute to errors. Although the ensemble technique underestimates the uncertainty in the RST forecasts, it provides additional information to road authorities who provide winter road maintenance.

  15. ASSESSMENT TECHNIQUES OF ENGLISH READING COMPREHENSION MEDIATED BY TECHNOLOGIES TO IMPROVE COLLEGE STUDENT’S ACHIEVEMENT.

    OpenAIRE

    Ochoa-Vásquez, Miguel A.; Ramírez-Montoya, María S.

    2016-01-01

    Improving reading comprehension skills is fundamental to those students willing to enroll in undergraduate studies. This sequential-explanatory mixed methods research design attempted to measure the impact that English reading comprehension assessment had on 96 college students’ school performance, after receiving a 15-hour instruction on reading evaluating techniques in technological-enriched environments. The data was collected through reading comprehension pre/post-tests and a semi-structu...

  16. Usage and applications of Semantic Web techniques and technologies to support chemistry research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borkum, Mark I; Frey, Jeremy G

    2014-01-01

    The drug discovery process is now highly dependent on the management, curation and integration of large amounts of potentially useful data. Semantics are necessary in order to interpret the information and derive knowledge. Advances in recent years have mitigated concerns that the lack of robust, usable tools has inhibited the adoption of methodologies based on semantics. THIS PAPER PRESENTS THREE EXAMPLES OF HOW SEMANTIC WEB TECHNIQUES AND TECHNOLOGIES CAN BE USED IN ORDER TO SUPPORT CHEMISTRY RESEARCH: a controlled vocabulary for quantities, units and symbols in physical chemistry; a controlled vocabulary for the classification and labelling of chemical substances and mixtures; and, a database of chemical identifiers. This paper also presents a Web-based service that uses the datasets in order to assist with the completion of risk assessment forms, along with a discussion of the legal implications and value-proposition for the use of such a service. We have introduced the Semantic Web concepts, technologies, and methodologies that can be used to support chemistry research, and have demonstrated the application of those techniques in three areas very relevant to modern chemistry research, generating three new datasets that we offer as exemplars of an extensible portfolio of advanced data integration facilities. We have thereby established the importance of Semantic Web techniques and technologies for meeting Wild's fourth "grand challenge".

  17. Introduction to time series analysis and forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Montgomery, Douglas C; Kulahci, Murat

    2008-01-01

    An accessible introduction to the most current thinking in and practicality of forecasting techniques in the context of time-oriented data. Analyzing time-oriented data and forecasting are among the most important problems that analysts face across many fields, ranging from finance and economics to production operations and the natural sciences. As a result, there is a widespread need for large groups of people in a variety of fields to understand the basic concepts of time series analysis and forecasting. Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting presents the time series analysis branch of applied statistics as the underlying methodology for developing practical forecasts, and it also bridges the gap between theory and practice by equipping readers with the tools needed to analyze time-oriented data and construct useful, short- to medium-term, statistically based forecasts.

  18. New tools, technology and techniques applied in geological sciences: current situation and future perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ulloa, Andres

    2014-01-01

    Technological tools and work methodologies most used in the area of geological sciences are reviewed and described. The various electronic devices such as laptops, palmtops or PDA (personal digital assistant), tablets and smartphones have allowed to take field geological data and store them efficiently. Tablets and smartphones have been convenient for data collection of scientific data by the diversity of sensors that present, portability, autonomy and the possibility to install specific applications. High precision GPS in conjunction with LIDAR technology and sonar technology have been more accessible and used for geological research, generating high resolution three-dimensional models to complement geological studies. Remote sensing techniques such as high penetration radar are used to perform models of the ice thickness and topography in Antarctic. Modern three-dimensional scanning and printing techniques are used in geological science research and teaching. Currently, the advance in the computer technology has allowed to handle three-dimensional models on personal computers efficiently way and with different display options. Some, of the new areas of geology, emerged recently, are mentioned to generate a broad panorama toward where can direct geological researches in the next years [es

  19. Technology transfer of nuclear techniques and nucleonic control systems in the mineral industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-11-01

    Among the many beneficial applications of radiation and radioisotopes in industry which are now well established in advanced countries, the applications of nuclear techniques and nucleonic control systems in the mineral industry have great potential for developing Member States. The use of nucleonic on-stream analyzers in the coal industry has resulted in enormous technical and economic benefits in addition to minimization of environmental pollution. Large savings have also resulted from the use of such analyzers in the processing of other minerals. Nuclear borehole logging techniques have demonstrated great potential in oil and gas evaluation. Radiotracer investigations have led to process optimisation and trouble shooting in various stages in ore processing and metallurgy. Though the technical and economic benefits of applications of nuclear techniques in the mineral industry are well recognised, technology transfer in these areas has been hampered by a variety of factors. In order to review the status and trends in nuclear techniques and nucleonic control systems in the mineral industry and the problems and considerations in their technology transfer to developing Member States, the IAEA convened an Advisory Group Meeting in Bombay, India, 15-19 January 1990. The present publication is based on the 7 contributions presented at this meeting. A separate abstract was prepared for each of these papers. Refs, figs and tabs

  20. Dust forecasting system in JMA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mikami, M; Tanaka, T Y; Maki, T

    2009-01-01

    JMAs dust forecasting information, which is based on a GCM dust model, is presented through the JMA website coupled with nowcast information. The website was updated recently and JMA and MOE joint 'KOSA' website was open from April 2008. Data assimilation technique will be introduced for improvement of the 'KOSA' information.

  1. Analog forecasting with dynamics-adapted kernels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Zhizhen; Giannakis, Dimitrios

    2016-09-01

    Analog forecasting is a nonparametric technique introduced by Lorenz in 1969 which predicts the evolution of states of a dynamical system (or observables defined on the states) by following the evolution of the sample in a historical record of observations which most closely resembles the current initial data. Here, we introduce a suite of forecasting methods which improve traditional analog forecasting by combining ideas from kernel methods developed in harmonic analysis and machine learning and state-space reconstruction for dynamical systems. A key ingredient of our approach is to replace single-analog forecasting with weighted ensembles of analogs constructed using local similarity kernels. The kernels used here employ a number of dynamics-dependent features designed to improve forecast skill, including Takens’ delay-coordinate maps (to recover information in the initial data lost through partial observations) and a directional dependence on the dynamical vector field generating the data. Mathematically, our approach is closely related to kernel methods for out-of-sample extension of functions, and we discuss alternative strategies based on the Nyström method and the multiscale Laplacian pyramids technique. We illustrate these techniques in applications to forecasting in a low-order deterministic model for atmospheric dynamics with chaotic metastability, and interannual-scale forecasting in the North Pacific sector of a comprehensive climate model. We find that forecasts based on kernel-weighted ensembles have significantly higher skill than the conventional approach following a single analog.

  2. Multivariate Time Series Analysis for Optimum Production Forecast ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    FIRST LADY

    on data-driven production and inventory management by utilizing historical data in the development of useful forecasting mathematical model. Keywords: production model, inventory management, multivariate time series, production forecast. Introduction. A large assortment of forecasting techniques has been developed ...

  3. Issues in Forecasting Graduate Dental Education Manpower Supply and Requirements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Born, David O.

    1981-01-01

    The history of forecasting in dentistry is explored with a focus on several major forecasting techniques, briefly examining the basic assumptions, data requirements, and strengths and weaknesses of each. Three perspectives held by forecasters are isolated: health status, social need, and economic. (Author/MLW)

  4. Adaptive correction of ensemble forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pelosi, Anna; Battista Chirico, Giovanni; Van den Bergh, Joris; Vannitsem, Stephane

    2017-04-01

    Forecasts from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models often suffer from both systematic and non-systematic errors. These are present in both deterministic and ensemble forecasts, and originate from various sources such as model error and subgrid variability. Statistical post-processing techniques can partly remove such errors, which is particularly important when NWP outputs concerning surface weather variables are employed for site specific applications. Many different post-processing techniques have been developed. For deterministic forecasts, adaptive methods such as the Kalman filter are often used, which sequentially post-process the forecasts by continuously updating the correction parameters as new ground observations become available. These methods are especially valuable when long training data sets do not exist. For ensemble forecasts, well-known techniques are ensemble model output statistics (EMOS), and so-called "member-by-member" approaches (MBM). Here, we introduce a new adaptive post-processing technique for ensemble predictions. The proposed method is a sequential Kalman filtering technique that fully exploits the information content of the ensemble. One correction equation is retrieved and applied to all members, however the parameters of the regression equations are retrieved by exploiting the second order statistics of the forecast ensemble. We compare our new method with two other techniques: a simple method that makes use of a running bias correction of the ensemble mean, and an MBM post-processing approach that rescales the ensemble mean and spread, based on minimization of the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS). We perform a verification study for the region of Campania in southern Italy. We use two years (2014-2015) of daily meteorological observations of 2-meter temperature and 10-meter wind speed from 18 ground-based automatic weather stations distributed across the region, comparing them with the corresponding COSMO

  5. Five Year Computer Technology Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    1972-12-01

    The report delineates the various computer system components and extrapolates past trends in light of industry goals and physical limitations to predict what individual components and entire systems will look like in the second half of this decade. T...

  6. Dynamic Hybrid Model for Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Marin Cerjan; Marin Matijaš; Marko Delimar

    2014-01-01

    Accurate forecasting tools are essential in the operation of electric power systems, especially in deregulated electricity markets. Electricity price forecasting is necessary for all market participants to optimize their portfolios. In this paper we propose a hybrid method approach for short-term hourly electricity price forecasting. The paper combines statistical techniques for pre-processing of data and a multi-layer (MLP) neural network for forecasting electricity price and price spike det...

  7. Very short range forecasts of visibility and ceiling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilsenrod, A.

    1980-01-01

    The development of methods for the short range forecasting of visibility and ceiling conditions is discussed. Short range forecasts of one hour or less (5 or 30 minutes), immediately after a series of local observations can be expected to be more accurate and reliable than any forecast of more than one hour. These forecasts can be accomplished by the operational implementation of fully automated aviation observation systems and the utilization of statistical techniques such as the Generalized Equivalent Markov model.

  8. Solid low-level waste forecasting guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Templeton, K.J.; Dirks, L.L.

    1995-03-01

    Guidance for forecasting solid low-level waste (LLW) on a site-wide basis is described in this document. Forecasting is defined as an approach for collecting information about future waste receipts. The forecasting approach discussed in this document is based solely on hanford's experience within the last six years. Hanford's forecasting technique is not a statistical forecast based upon past receipts. Due to waste generator mission changes, startup of new facilities, and waste generator uncertainties, statistical methods have proven to be inadequate for the site. It is recommended that an approach similar to Hanford's annual forecasting strategy be implemented at each US Department of Energy (DOE) installation to ensure that forecast data are collected in a consistent manner across the DOE complex. Hanford's forecasting strategy consists of a forecast cycle that can take 12 to 30 months to complete. The duration of the cycle depends on the number of LLW generators and staff experience; however, the duration has been reduced with each new cycle. Several uncertainties are associated with collecting data about future waste receipts. Volume, shipping schedule, and characterization data are often reported as estimates with some level of uncertainty. At Hanford, several methods have been implemented to capture the level of uncertainty. Collection of a maximum and minimum volume range has been implemented as well as questionnaires to assess the relative certainty in the requested data

  9. Technology in Strength and Conditioning: Assessing Bodyweight Squat Technique With Wearable Sensors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    OʼReilly, Martin A; Whelan, Darragh F; Ward, Tomas E; Delahunt, Eamonn; Caulfield, Brian M

    2017-08-01

    O'Reilly, MA, Whelan, DF, Ward, TE, Delahunt, E, and Caulfield, BM. Technology in strength and conditioning: assessing bodyweight squat technique with wearable sensors. J Strength Cond Res 31(8): 2303-2312, 2017-Strength and conditioning (S&C) coaches offer expert guidance to help those they work with achieve their personal fitness goals. However, it is not always practical to operate under the direct supervision of an S&C coach and consequently individuals are often left training without expert oversight. Recent developments in inertial measurement units (IMUs) and mobile computing platforms have allowed for the possibility of unobtrusive motion tracking systems and the provision of real-time individualized feedback regarding exercise performance. These systems could enable S&C coaches to remotely monitor sessions and help individuals record their workout performance. One aspect of such technologies is the ability to assess exercise technique and detect common deviations from acceptable exercise form. In this study, we investigate this ability in the context of a bodyweight (BW) squat exercise. Inertial measurement units were positioned on the lumbar spine, thighs, and shanks of 77 healthy participants. Participants completed repetitions of BW squats with acceptable form and 5 common deviations from acceptable BW squatting technique. Descriptive features were extracted from the IMU signals for each BW squat repetition, and these were used to train a technique classifier. Acceptable or aberrant BW squat technique can be detected with 98% accuracy, 96% sensitivity, and 99% specificity when using features derived from all 5 IMUs. A single IMU system can also distinguish between acceptable and aberrant BW squat biomechanics with excellent accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. Detecting exact deviations from acceptable BW squatting technique can be achieved with 80% accuracy using a 5 IMU system and 72% accuracy when using a single IMU positioned on the right shank

  10. 20th International Conference for Students and Young Scientists: Modern Techniques and Technologies (MTT'2014)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-10-01

    The active involvement of young researchers in scientific processes and the acquisition of scientific experience by gifted youth currently have a great value for the development of science. One of the research activities of National Research Tomsk Polytechnic University, aimed at the preparing and formation of the next generation of scientists, is the International Conference of Students and Young Scientists ''Modern Techniques and Technologies'', which was held in 2014 for the twentieth time. Great experience in the organization of scientific events has been acquired through years of carrying the conference. There are all the necessary resources for this: a team of organizers - employees of Tomsk Polytechnic University, premises provided with modern office equipment and equipment for demonstration, and leading scientists - professors of TPU, as well as the status of the university as a leading research university in Russia. This way the conference is able to attract world leading scientists for the collaboration. For the previous years the conference proved itself as a major scientific event at international level, which attracts more than 600 students and young scientists from Russia, CIS and other countries. The conference provides oral plenary and section reports. The conference is organized around lectures, where leading Russian and foreign scientists deliver plenary presentations to young audiences. An important indicator of this scientific event is the magnitude of the coverage of scientific fields: energy, heat and power, instrument making, engineering, systems and devices for medical purposes, electromechanics, material science, computer science and control in technical systems, nanotechnologies and nanomaterials, physical methods in science and technology, control and quality management, design and technology of artistic materials processing. The main issues considered by young researchers at the conference were related to the analysis of contemporary

  11. Implementation of the geoethics principal to environmental technologies by Biogeosystem Technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batukaev, Abdulmalik; Kalinitchenko, Valery; Minkina, Tatiana; Mandzhieva, Saglara; Sushkova, Svetlana

    2017-04-01

    The uncertainty and degradation of biosphere is a result of outdated industrial technologies. The incorrect principals of the nature resources use paradigm are to be radically changed corresponding to principals of Geoethics. Technological dead-end is linked to Philosophy of Technology. The organic protection and imitation of natural patterns are till now the theoretical base of technology. The technological and social determinism are proposed as the "inevitable" for humankind. One is forced to believe that the only way for humanity is to agree that the outdated way of technical development is the only possibility for humankind to survive. But rough imitation as a method of outdated technological platform is fruitless now. Survival under practice of industrial technology platform now has become extremely dangerous. The challenge for humanity is to overcome the chain of environmental hazards of agronomy, irrigation, industry, and other human activities in biosphere, which awkwardly imitate the natural processes: plowing leads to degradation of soil and greenhouse gases emission; irrigation leads to excessive moistening and degradation of soil, landscape, greenhouse gases emission, loss of freshwater - the global deficit; waste utilization leads to greenhouse gases emission, loss of oxigen and other ecological hazards. The fundamentally new technologies are to be generates for development of biosphere, food and resources renewing. Aristotle told that technique can go beyond nature and implement "what nature can't bring to a finish." To overcome fundamental shortcomings of industrial technologies, incorrect land use we propose the Biogeosystem Technique (BGT*) for biosphere sustainability. The BGT* key point is transcendent approach (not imitating of the natural processes) - new technical solutions for biosphere - soil construction, the fluxes of energy, matter, and water control and biological productivity of terrestrial systems. Intra-soil milling which provides the

  12. Development and application of the ultrasonic techniques based in EM AT technology for NDT pipe inspection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Armador Sillero, J.; Calas del Castillo, H. M.; Fernandez, F.J.

    2016-07-01

    The objective of pipe inspectionsis to detect and evaluate the evolution of the damage caused by degradation phenomena like Erosion/Corrosion and Microbiogically Induced Corrosion (MIC). The technology of Ultrasonic generated by EMAT (ElectroMagnetic Acoustic Transducers) allows the inspection without direct contact with the component. It is possible perform the inspection without couplant, reduces the influence of the component surface and allows to increase the inspection velocity. It is wanted apply a new inspection technique based in EMAT to follow this phenomena to verify the integrity of the components and check if it satisfy the work conditions. (Author)

  13. Advanced Technologies for the Improvement of Spray Application Techniques in Spanish Viticulture: An Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gil, Emilio; Arnó, Jaume; Llorens, Jordi; Sanz, Ricardo; Llop, Jordi; Rosell-Polo, Joan R.; Gallart, Montserrat; Escolà, Alexandre

    2014-01-01

    Spraying techniques have been undergoing continuous evolution in recent decades. This paper presents part of the research work carried out in Spain in the field of sensors for characterizing vineyard canopies and monitoring spray drift in order to improve vineyard spraying and make it more sustainable. Some methods and geostatistical procedures for mapping vineyard parameters are proposed, and the development of a variable rate sprayer is described. All these technologies are interesting in terms of adjusting the amount of pesticides applied to the target canopy. PMID:24451462

  14. Review of Microwave Photonics Technique to Generate the Microwave Signal by Using Photonics Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raghuwanshi, Sanjeev Kumar; Srivastav, Akash

    2017-12-01

    Microwave photonics system provides high bandwidth capabilities of fiber optic systems and also contains the ability to provide interconnect transmission properties, which are virtually independent of length. The low-loss wide bandwidth capability of optoelectronic systems makes them attractive for the transmission and processing of microwave signals, while the development of high-capacity optical communication systems has required the use of microwave techniques in optical transmitters and receivers. These two strands have led to the development of the research area of microwave photonics. So, we can considered microwave photonics as the field that studies the interaction between microwave and optical waves for applications such as communications, radars, sensors and instrumentations. In this paper we have thoroughly reviewed the microwave generation techniques by using photonics technology.

  15. Technology in S&C: Assessing Bodyweight Squat Technique with Wearable Sensors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Reilly, Martin A; Whelan, Darragh F; Ward, Tomas E; Delahunt, Eamonn; Caulfield, Brian M

    2017-04-15

    Strength and conditioning (S&C) coaches offer expert guidance to help those they work with achieve their personal fitness goals. However it is not always practical to operate under the direct supervision of an S&C coach and consequently individuals are often left training without expert oversight. Recent developments in inertial measurement units (IMUs) and mobile computing platforms have allowed for the possibility of unobtrusive motion tracking systems and the provision of real-time individualised feedback regarding exercise performance. These systems could enable S&C coaches to remotely monitor sessions and help individuals record their workout performance. One aspect of such technologies is the ability to assess exercise technique and detect common deviations from acceptable exercise form. In this study we investigate this ability in the context of a bodyweight (BW) squat exercise. IMUs were positioned on the lumbar spine, thighs and shanks of 77 healthy participants. Participants completed repetitions of BW squats with acceptable form and five common deviations from acceptable BW squatting technique. Descriptive features were extracted from the IMU signals for each BW squat repetition and these were used to train a technique classifier. Acceptable or aberrant BW squat technique can be detected with 98% accuracy, 96% sensitivity and 99% specificity when using features derived from all 5 IMUs. A single IMU system can also distinguish between acceptable and aberrant BW squat biomechanics with excellent accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Detecting exact deviations from acceptable BW squatting technique can be achieved with 80% accuracy using a 5 IMU system and 72% accuracy when using a single IMU positioned on the right shank. These results suggest IMU based systems can distinguish between acceptable and aberrant BW squat technique with excellent accuracy with a single IMU system. Identification of exact deviations is also possible but multi-IMU systems

  16. Marginal adaptation and CAD-CAM technology: A systematic review of restorative material and fabrication techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papadiochou, Sofia; Pissiotis, Argirios L

    2018-04-01

    The comparative assessment of computer-aided design and computer-aided manufacturing (CAD-CAM) technology and other fabrication techniques pertaining to marginal adaptation should be documented. Limited evidence exists on the effect of restorative material on the performance of a CAD-CAM system relative to marginal adaptation. The purpose of this systematic review was to investigate whether the marginal adaptation of CAD-CAM single crowns, fixed dental prostheses, and implant-retained fixed dental prostheses or their infrastructures differs from that obtained by other fabrication techniques using a similar restorative material and whether it depends on the type of restorative material. An electronic search of English-language literature published between January 1, 2000, and June 30, 2016, was conducted of the Medline/PubMed database. Of the 55 included comparative studies, 28 compared CAD-CAM technology with conventional fabrication techniques, 12 contrasted CAD-CAM technology and copy milling, 4 compared CAD-CAM milling with direct metal laser sintering (DMLS), and 22 investigated the performance of a CAD-CAM system regarding marginal adaptation in restorations/infrastructures produced with different restorative materials. Most of the CAD-CAM restorations/infrastructures were within the clinically acceptable marginal discrepancy (MD) range. The performance of a CAD-CAM system relative to marginal adaptation is influenced by the restorative material. Compared with CAD-CAM, most of the heat-pressed lithium disilicate crowns displayed equal or smaller MD values. Slip-casting crowns exhibited similar or better marginal accuracy than those fabricated with CAD-CAM. Cobalt-chromium and titanium implant infrastructures produced using a CAD-CAM system elicited smaller MD values than zirconia. The majority of cobalt-chromium restorations/infrastructures produced by DMLS displayed better marginal accuracy than those fabricated with the casting technique. Compared with copy

  17. Techniques and Technology to Revise Content Delivery and Model Critical Thinking in the Neuroscience Classroom.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Illig, Kurt R

    2015-01-01

    Undergraduate neuroscience courses typically involve highly interdisciplinary material, and it is often necessary to use class time to review how principles of chemistry, math and biology apply to neuroscience. Lecturing and Socratic discussion can work well to deliver information to students, but these techniques can lead students to feel more like spectators than participants in a class, and do not actively engage students in the critical analysis and application of experimental evidence. If one goal of undergraduate neuroscience education is to foster critical thinking skills, then the classroom should be a place where students and instructors can work together to develop them. Students learn how to think critically by directly engaging with course material, and by discussing evidence with their peers, but taking classroom time for these activities requires that an instructor find a way to provide course materials outside of class. Using technology as an on-demand provider of course materials can give instructors the freedom to restructure classroom time, allowing students to work together in small groups and to have discussions that foster critical thinking, and allowing the instructor to model these skills. In this paper, I provide a rationale for reducing the use of traditional lectures in favor of more student-centered activities, I present several methods that can be used to deliver course materials outside of class and discuss their use, and I provide a few examples of how these techniques and technologies can help improve learning outcomes.

  18. Feasibilty study of renewable energy powered seawater desalination technology using natural vacuum technique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ayhan, Teoman; Al Madani, Hussain [Mechanical Engineering Department, College of Engineering, University of Bahrain, P.O. box 32038, Isatown 32036 (Bahrain)

    2010-02-15

    With an ever-increasing population and rapid growth of industrialization, there is great demand for fresh water. Desalination has been a key proponent to meet the future challenges due to decreasing availability of fresh water. However, desalination uses significant amount of energy, today mostly from fossil fuels. It is, therefore, reasonable to rely on renewable energy sources such as solar energy, wind energy, ocean thermal energy, waste heat from the industry and other renewable sources. The present study deals with the energy-efficient seawater desalination system utilizing renewable energy sources and natural vacuum technique. A new desalination technology named Natural Vacuum Desalination is proposed. The novel desalination technique achieve remarkable energy efficiency through the evaporation of seawater under vacuum and will be described in sufficient detail to demonstrate that it requires much less electric energy compared to any conventional desalination plant of fresh water production of similar capacity. The discussion will highlight the main operative and maintenance features of the proposed natural vacuum seawater desalination technology which seems to have promising techno-economic potential providing also advantageous coupling with renewable energy sources. (author)

  19. Issues in Forecasting CMEs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pizzo, V. J.

    2017-12-01

    I will present my view of the current status of space weather forecasting abilities related to CMEs. This talk will address the large-scale aspects, but specifically not energetic particle phenomena. A key point is that all models, whether sophisticated numerical contraptions or quasi-empirical ones, are only as good as the data you feed them. Hence the emphasis will be on observations and analysis methods. First I will review where we stand with regard to the near-Sun quantitative data needed to drive any model, no matter how complex or simple-minded, and I will discuss technological roadblocks that suggest it may be some time before we see any meaningful improvements beyond what we have today. Then I cover issues related to characterizing CME propagation out through the corona and into interplanetary space, as well as to observational limitations in the vicinity of 1 AU. Since none of these observational constraints are likely to be resolved anytime soon, the real challenge is to make more informed use of what is available. Thus, this talk will focus on how we may identify and pursue the most profitable approaches, for both forecast and research applications. The discussion will highlight a number of promising leads, including those related to inclusion of solar backside information, joint magnetograph observations from L5 and Earth, how to use (not just run) ensembles, more rational use of HI observations, and suggestions for using cube-sats for deep space observations of CMEs and MCs.

  20. Demand forecast model based on CRM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Yuancui; Chen, Lichao

    2006-11-01

    With interiorizing day by day management thought that regarding customer as the centre, forecasting customer demand becomes more and more important. In the demand forecast of customer relationship management, the traditional forecast methods have very great limitation because much uncertainty of the demand, these all require new modeling to meet the demands of development. In this paper, the notion is that forecasting the demand according to characteristics of the potential customer, then modeling by it. The model first depicts customer adopting uniform multiple indexes. Secondly, the model acquires characteristic customers on the basis of data warehouse and the technology of data mining. The last, there get the most similar characteristic customer by their comparing and forecast the demands of new customer by the most similar characteristic customer.

  1. Fuel cycle forecasting - there are forecasts and there are forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Puechl, K.H.

    1975-01-01

    The FORECAST-NUCLEAR computer program described recognizes that forecasts are made to answer a variety of questions and, therefore, that no single forecast is universally appropriate. Also, it recognizes that no two individuals will completely agree as to the input data that are appropriate for obtaining an answer to even a single simple question. Accordingly, the program was written from a utilitarian standpoint: it allows working with multiple projections; data inputting is simple to allow game-playing; computation time is short to minimize the cost of 'what if' assessements; and detail is internally carried to allow meaningful analysis. (author)

  2. The development of advanced instrumentation and control technology -The development of digital monitoring technique-

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jun, Jong Sun; Lee, Byung Sun; Han, Sang Joon; Shin, Yong Chul; Kim, Yung Baek; Kim, Dong Hoon; Oh, Yang Kyoon; Suh, Yung; Choi, Chan Duk; Kang, Byung Hun; Hong, Hyung Pyo; Shin, Jee Tae; Moon, Kwon Kee; Lee, Soon Sung; Kim, Sung Hoh; Koo, In Soo; Kim, Dong Wan; Huh, Sub [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    1995-07-01

    A study has been performed for the advanced DSP technology for digital nuclear I and C systems and its prototype, and for the monitoring and diagnosing techniques for the highly-pressurized components in NSSS. In the DSP part, the DSP requirements for NPPs have been induced for the performance of the DSP systems and the functional analysis for Reactor Coolant System (RCS) has been performed as the embodied target system. Total quantities of the I and C signals, signal types, and signal functions were also investigated in Ulchin NPP units 3 and 4. From these basis, the prototype facility was configured for performance validation and algorithm implementation. In order to develop the methods of DSP techniques and algorithms, the current signal validation methods have been studied and analyzed. In the analysis for the communication networks in NPP, the basic technique for the configuration of communication networks and the important considerations for applying to NPPs have been reviewed. Test and experimental facilities have been set up in order to carry out the required tests during research activities on the monitoring techniques for abnormal conditions. Studies were concentrated on methods how to acquire vibration signals from the mechanical structures and equipment including rotating machinery and reactor, and analyses for the characteristics of the signals. Fuzzy logic was evaluated as a good technique to improve the reliability of the monitoring and diagnosing algorithm through the application of the theory such as the automatic pattern recognition algorithm of the vibration spectrum, the alarm detection and diagnosis for collisions of loose parts. 71 figs, 32 tabs, 64 refs. (Author).

  3. New technology of dry benefication of fly ash from coal power plants using applied mineralogy techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    В. А. Арсентьев

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The existence of environmental and strategic need to process dumps and slagheaps of coal mining enterprises of Russia and foreign countries results in reviewing the potential of using fly ash as a technogenic mineral resource. Comprehensive studies of substance composition of fly ash from coal power plants make it possible to define rational further ways of utilizing that mineral resource substantiating the scheme of its technological secondary processing. In view of the numerous environmental problems stemming from the techniques of wet benefication and processing of that mineral resource, a technology is suggested of dry cleaning of fly ash from thermal coal power plants. Studies were carried out using a number of samples of fly ash from various power plants. The suggested criteria are used to discriminate the compounds of fly ash and quantitative and qualitative composition of particulate matter is assessed. Studies of substance composition of fly ash samples has demonstrated that the concentration of non-combusted carbon in them varies from 5 to 20 %. The principal technological procedure of cleansing in our studies was a combination of magnetic and electric separation of ash in the state of vibrational pseudo-liquefaction. It enables one to increase the throughput capacity and selectivity of the cleansing process significantly. In the result of such cleansing a stable mineral fraction is produced that contains 0.5-2.5 % of carbon, so that the purified mineral fraction can be used as a construction binding agent.

  4. Technology optimization techniques for multicomponent optical band-pass filter manufacturing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baranov, Yuri P.; Gryaznov, Georgiy M.; Rodionov, Andrey Y.; Obrezkov, Andrey V.; Medvedev, Roman V.; Chivanov, Alexey N.

    2016-04-01

    Narrowband optical devices (like IR-sensing devices, celestial navigation systems, solar-blind UV-systems and many others) are one of the most fast-growing areas in optical manufacturing. However, signal strength in this type of applications is quite low and performance of devices depends on attenuation level of wavelengths out of operating range. Modern detectors (photodiodes, matrix detectors, photomultiplier tubes and others) usually do not have required selectivity or have higher sensitivity to background spectrum at worst. Manufacturing of a single component band-pass filter with high attenuation level of wavelength is resource-intensive task. Sometimes it's not possible to find solution for this problem using existing technologies. Different types of filters have technology variations of transmittance profile shape due to various production factors. At the same time there are multiple tasks with strict requirements for background spectrum attenuation in narrowband optical devices. For example, in solar-blind UV-system wavelengths above 290-300 nm must be attenuated by 180dB. In this paper techniques of multi-component optical band-pass filters assembly from multiple single elements with technology variations of transmittance profile shape for optimal signal-tonoise ratio (SNR) were proposed. Relationships between signal-to-noise ratio and different characteristics of transmittance profile shape were shown. Obtained practical results were in rather good agreement with our calculations.

  5. Challenges, Strategies and Techniques for International Training in Technology for Cultural Heritage Conservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eppich, R.; Almagro Vidal, A.

    2013-07-01

    , Jordan, Argentina, United Arab Emirates, United States of America and around 20 other countries. These strategies deal with establishing methodologies and guiding principles for the selection of technologies, highlighting successful illustrated examples, levelling uneven educational bases and gaining access to expertise. The authors have developed these strategies and techniques to appeal, engage and succeed with such diverse groups - to encourage the participants to cooperate on a common goal and overcome specific challenges while embracing the technology and thinking critically about its appropriate application for the conservation of cultural heritage in their home countries. Other strategies include setting norms that respect the various cultures and differing levels of technology education, offering voluntary sessions for more advanced and ambitious participants, finding and then adopting natural leaders as co-instructors and offering a mix of sessions including standard lectures combined with field and laboratory exercises and distance learning. This methodology and strategies have proven to be successful as the participants have provided positive evaluations months and/or years after the courses, implemented their own courses using the materials and methods and have established a strong, sustainable network related to this topic.

  6. Managing the Classroom with Technology. On Progress Reports and Online Communications, and How To Manage the Two Different Communication Techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasprowicz, Tim

    2002-01-01

    Describes how one teacher bridged the communications gap among teachers, parents, and students through the use of technology in managing his classroom. Discusses progress reports and online communications and how to manage the two different communication techniques. (JOW)

  7. Improving Software Reliability Forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Burtsy, Bernard; Albeanu, Grigore; Boros, Dragos N.; Popentiu, Florin; Nicola, V.F.

    1996-01-01

    This work investigates some methods for software reliability forecasting. A supermodel is presented as a suited tool for prediction of reliability in software project development. Also, times series forecasting for cumulative interfailure time is proposed and illustrated.

  8. Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2012

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hong, Tao; Pinson, Pierre; Fan, Shu

    2014-01-01

    The Global Energy Forecasting Competition (GEFCom2012) attracted hundreds of participants worldwide, who contributed many novel ideas to the energy forecasting field. This paper introduces both tracks of GEFCom2012, hierarchical load forecasting and wind power forecasting, with details...

  9. Richardson's Barotropic Forecast: A Reappraisal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch, Peter

    1992-01-01

    To elucidate his numerical technique and to examine the effectiveness of geostrophic initial winds, Lewis Fry Richardson carried out an idealized forecast using the linear shallow-water equations and simple analytical pressure and velocity fields. This barotropic forecast has been repeated and extended using a global numerical model, and the results are presented in this paper. Richardson's conclusions regarding the use of geostrophic winds as initial data are reconsidered.An analysis of Richardson's data into normal modes shows that almost 85% of the energy is accounted for by a single eigenmode, the gravest symmetric rotational Hough mode, which travels westward with a period of about five days. This five-day wave has been detected in analyses of stratospheric data. It is striking that the fields chosen by Richardson on considerations of smoothness should so closely resemble a natural oscillation of the atmosphere.The numerical model employed in this study uses an implicit differencing technique, which is stable for large time steps. The numerical instability that would have destroyed Richardson's barotropic forecast, had it been extended, is thereby circumvented. It is sometimes said that computational instability was the cause of the failure of Richardson's baroclinic forecast, for which he obtained a pressure tendency value two orders of magnitude too large. However, the initial tendency is independent of the time step (at least for the explicit scheme used by Richardson). In fact, the spurious tendency resulted from the presence of unrealistically large high-frequency gravity-wave components in the initial fields.High-frequency oscillations are also found in the evolution starting from the idealized data in the barotropic forecast. They are shown to be due to the gravity-wave components of the initial data. These oscillations may be removed by a slight modification of the initial fields. This initialization is effected by means of a simple digital filtering

  10. Inaccuracy in traffic forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, Bent; Holm, Mette K. Skamris; Buhl, Søren Ladegaard

    2006-01-01

    , the difference between actual and forecasted traffic is more than +-20%; for 25% of road projects, the difference is larger than +-40%. Forecasts for roads are more accurate and more balanced than for rail, with no significant difference between the frequency of inflated versus deflated forecasts. But for both...

  11. Managing Sales Forecasters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L.P. de Bruijn (Bert); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractA Forecast Support System (FSS), which generates sales forecasts, is a sophisticated business analytical tool that can help to improve targeted business decisions. Many companies use such a tool, although at the same time they may allow managers to quote their own forecasts. These sales

  12. Transforming the Narrative of the History of Chinese Technology: East and West in Bertrand Gille’s Histoire des Techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yao Dazhi

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available In his magisterial The History of Techniques, the French historian of technology Bertrand Gille (1920–1980 constructs a Western-centric world history of technology based on a technical systems approach. In doing so, he is forced to deal with the tension between Western-centric approaches and the conventional narrative of the history of Chinese technology. In order to avoid internal contradictions within his world history framework, Gille reconfigures the historical narrative about ancient China’s great inventions, arguing against unidirectional technology transfer and introducing the alternative notions of technological concomitant evolution and technological exchange. While Gille integrates ancient China into the general technological development of the world, he treats China as a blocked technical system and as “the other” in the West’s technological self-perception.

  13. Improving reliability of non-volatile memory technologies through circuit level techniques and error control coding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Chengen; Emre, Yunus; Cao, Yu; Chakrabarti, Chaitali

    2012-12-01

    Non-volatile resistive memories, such as phase-change RAM (PRAM) and spin transfer torque RAM (STT-RAM), have emerged as promising candidates because of their fast read access, high storage density, and very low standby power. Unfortunately, in scaled technologies, high storage density comes at a price of lower reliability. In this article, we first study in detail the causes of errors for PRAM and STT-RAM. We see that while for multi-level cell (MLC) PRAM, the errors are due to resistance drift, in STT-RAM they are due to process variations and variations in the device geometry. We develop error models to capture these effects and propose techniques based on tuning of circuit level parameters to mitigate some of these errors. Unfortunately for reliable memory operation, only circuit-level techniques are not sufficient and so we propose error control coding (ECC) techniques that can be used on top of circuit-level techniques. We show that for STT-RAM, a combination of voltage boosting and write pulse width adjustment at the circuit-level followed by a BCH-based ECC scheme can reduce the block failure rate (BFR) to 10-8. For MLC-PRAM, a combination of threshold resistance tuning and BCH-based product code ECC scheme can achieve the same target BFR of 10-8. The product code scheme is flexible; it allows migration to a stronger code to guarantee the same target BFR when the raw bit error rate increases with increase in the number of programming cycles.

  14. Forecasting HotWater Consumption in Residential Houses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linas Gelažanskas

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available An increased number of intermittent renewables poses a threat to the system balance. As a result, new tools and concepts, like advanced demand-side management and smart grid technologies, are required for the demand to meet supply. There is a need for higher consumer awareness and automatic response to a shortage or surplus of electricity. The distributed water heater can be considered as one of the most energy-intensive devices, where its energy demand is shiftable in time without influencing the comfort level. Tailored hot water usage predictions and advanced control techniques could enable these devices to supply ancillary energy balancing services. The paper analyses a set of hot water consumption data from residential dwellings. This work is an important foundation for the development of a demand-side management strategy based on hot water consumption forecasting at the level of individual residential houses. Various forecasting models, such as exponential smoothing, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average, seasonal decomposition and a combination of them, are fitted to test different prediction techniques. These models outperform the chosen benchmark models (mean, naive and seasonal naive and show better performance measure values. The results suggest that seasonal decomposition of the time series plays the most significant part in the accuracy of forecasting.

  15. On the Use of MCDM Technique for Identifying Key Technology: A Case of Auto Company

    OpenAIRE

    Aliakbar Mazlomi; Rosnah bt. Mohd. Yusuff

    2011-01-01

    In today’s world, technology strategy development for industries is one of the most important tasks in proposing technology roadmap. Moreover, identifying strategic technology is main part of strategydevelopment. This article tries to apply MCDM methods in finding key strategic technologies from identified technologies from in order to provide appropriate technology strategy. TOPSIS method helps in finding key strategic technologies from identified technologies from in order to provide approp...

  16. Why preferring parametric forecasting to nonparametric methods?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jabot, Franck

    2015-05-07

    A recent series of papers by Charles T. Perretti and collaborators have shown that nonparametric forecasting methods can outperform parametric methods in noisy nonlinear systems. Such a situation can arise because of two main reasons: the instability of parametric inference procedures in chaotic systems which can lead to biased parameter estimates, and the discrepancy between the real system dynamics and the modeled one, a problem that Perretti and collaborators call "the true model myth". Should ecologists go on using the demanding parametric machinery when trying to forecast the dynamics of complex ecosystems? Or should they rely on the elegant nonparametric approach that appears so promising? It will be here argued that ecological forecasting based on parametric models presents two key comparative advantages over nonparametric approaches. First, the likelihood of parametric forecasting failure can be diagnosed thanks to simple Bayesian model checking procedures. Second, when parametric forecasting is diagnosed to be reliable, forecasting uncertainty can be estimated on virtual data generated with the fitted to data parametric model. In contrast, nonparametric techniques provide forecasts with unknown reliability. This argumentation is illustrated with the simple theta-logistic model that was previously used by Perretti and collaborators to make their point. It should convince ecologists to stick to standard parametric approaches, until methods have been developed to assess the reliability of nonparametric forecasting. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Discrimination techniques employing both reflective and thermal multispectral signals. [for remote sensor technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malila, W. A.; Crane, R. B.; Richardson, W.

    1973-01-01

    Recent improvements in remote sensor technology carry implications for data processing. Multispectral line scanners now exist that can collect data simultaneously and in registration in multiple channels at both reflective and thermal (emissive) wavelengths. Progress in dealing with two resultant recognition processing problems is discussed: (1) More channels mean higher processing costs; to combat these costs, a new and faster procedure for selecting subsets of channels has been developed. (2) Differences between thermal and reflective characteristics influence recognition processing; to illustrate the magnitude of these differences, some explanatory calculations are presented. Also introduced, is a different way to process multispectral scanner data, namely, radiation balance mapping and related procedures. Techniques and potentials are discussed and examples presented.

  18. Accuracy required and achievable in radiotherapy dosimetry: have modern technology and techniques changed our views?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thwaites, David

    2013-06-01

    In this review of the accuracy required and achievable in radiotherapy dosimetry, older approaches and evidence-based estimates for 3DCRT have been reprised, summarising and drawing together the author's earlier evaluations where still relevant. Available evidence for IMRT uncertainties has been reviewed, selecting information from tolerances, QA, verification measurements, in vivo dosimetry and dose delivery audits, to consider whether achievable uncertainties increase or decrease for current advanced treatments and practice. Overall there is some evidence that they tend to increase, but that similar levels should be achievable. Thus it is concluded that those earlier estimates of achievable dosimetric accuracy are still applicable, despite the changes and advances in technology and techniques. The one exception is where there is significant lung involvement, where it is likely that uncertainties have now improved due to widespread use of more accurate heterogeneity models. Geometric uncertainties have improved with the wide availability of IGRT.

  19. A snapshot of radiation therapy techniques and technology in Queensland: An aid to mapping undergraduate curriculum

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bridge, Pete; Carmichael, Mary-Ann; Brady, Carole; Dry, Allison

    2013-01-01

    Undergraduate students studying the Bachelor of Radiation Therapy at Queensland University of Technology (QUT) attend clinical placements in a number of department sites across Queensland. To ensure that the curriculum prepares students for the most common treatments and current techniques in use in these departments, a curriculum matching exercise was performed. A cross-sectional census was performed on a pre-determined “Snapshot” date in 2012. This was undertaken by the clinical education staff in each department who used a standardized proforma to count the number of patients as well as prescription, equipment, and technique data for a list of tumour site categories. This information was combined into aggregate anonymized data. All 12 Queensland radiation therapy clinical sites participated in the Snapshot data collection exercise to produce a comprehensive overview of clinical practice on the chosen day. A total of 59 different tumour sites were treated on the chosen day and as expected the most common treatment sites were prostate and breast, comprising 46% of patients treated. Data analysis also indicated that intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) use is relatively high with 19.6% of patients receiving IMRT treatment on the chosen day. Both IMRT and image-guided radiotherapy (IGRT) indications matched recommendations from the evidence. The Snapshot method proved to be a feasible and efficient method of gathering useful data to inform curriculum matching. Frequency of IMRT use in Queensland matches or possibly exceeds that indicated in the literature. It is recommended that future repetition of the study be undertaken in order to monitor trends in referral patterns and new technology implementation

  20. Improved Forecasting Methods for Naval Manpower Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-25

    Structural Change Models, Journal of Applied Econometrics 18: 1-22. [10] Caporale T., Grier K. 2005, How Smart is my Dummy? Time Series Test for the...Tennessee 38055-1000  www.nprst.navy.mil NPRST-TR-15-3 March 2015 Improved Forecasting Methods for Naval Manpower Studies Ping Ying Bellamy...Ph.D. Tanja F. Blackstone, Ph.D. Navy Personnel Research, Studies, and Technology NPRST-TR-15-3 March 2015 Improved Forecasting Methods

  1. PREFACE: 21th International Conference for Students and Young Scientists: Modern Technique and Technologies (MTT'2015)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-10-01

    Involving young researchers in the scientific process, and allowing them to gain scientific experience, are important issues for scientific development. The International Conference for Students and Young Scientists ''Modern Technique and Technologies'' is one of a number of scientific events, held at National Research Tomsk Polytechnic University aimed at training and forming the scientific elite. During previous years the conference established itself as a serious scientific event at an international level, attracting members which annually number about 400 students and young scientists from Russia and near and far abroad. An important indicator of this scientific event is the large number of scientific areas covered, such as power engineering, heat power engineering, electronic devices for monitoring and diagnostics, instrumentation, materials and technologies of new generations, methods of research and diagnostics of materials, automatic control and system engineering, physical methods science and engineering, design and artistic aspects of engineering, social and humanitarian aspects of engineering. The main issues, which are discussed at the conference by young researchers, are connected with analysis of contemporary problems, application of new techniques and technologies, and consideration of their relationship. Over the years, the conference committee has gained a lot of experience in organizing scientific meetings. There are all the necessary conditions: the staff of organizers includes employees of Tomsk Polytechnic University; the auditoriums are equipped with modern demonstration and office equipment; leading scientists are TPU professors; the status of the Tomsk Polytechnic University as a leading research university in Russia also plays an important role. All this allows collaboration between leading scientists from all around the world, who are annually invited to give lectures at the conference. The editorial board expresses gratitude to the

  2. Ensemble Forecasts with Useful Skill-Spread Relationships for African meningitis and Asia Streamflow Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopson, T. M.

    2014-12-01

    One potential benefit of an ensemble prediction system (EPS) is its capacity to forecast its own forecast error through the ensemble spread-error relationship. In practice, an EPS is often quite limited in its ability to represent the variable expectation of forecast error through the variable dispersion of the ensemble, and perhaps more fundamentally, in its ability to provide enough variability in the ensembles dispersion to make the skill-spread relationship even potentially useful (irrespective of whether the EPS is well-calibrated or not). In this paper we examine the ensemble skill-spread relationship of an ensemble constructed from the TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) dataset of global forecasts and a combination of multi-model and post-processing approaches. Both of the multi-model and post-processing techniques are based on quantile regression (QR) under a step-wise forward selection framework leading to ensemble forecasts with both good reliability and sharpness. The methodology utilizes the ensemble's ability to self-diagnose forecast instability to produce calibrated forecasts with informative skill-spread relationships. A context for these concepts is provided by assessing the constructed ensemble in forecasting district-level humidity impacting the incidence of meningitis in the meningitis belt of Africa, and in forecasting flooding events in the Brahmaputra and Ganges basins of South Asia.

  3. Feasibility Study of Short-Term Storm Forecasting Over the Gulf of Mexico by Blending Satellite-Based Extrapolation Forecasts with Numerical Weather Prediction Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, H.; Kessinger, C.; Rehak, N.; Pinto, J. O.; Megenhardt, D.; Albo, D.; Phillips, C.; Bankert, R.; Hawkins, J.

    2012-12-01

    Deep convection over the ocean poses a potentially great danger for trans-oceanic flights, as tragically demonstrated by the Air France Flight 447 accident of 2009. This paper describes a forecasting system that will produce 0-12 hr convective forecasts over the Gulf of Mexico domain using a blending technique that combines satellite-based extrapolation forecasts with Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model forecasts. Closely following the steps of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Aviation Weather Research Program (AWRP) CoSPA development, a forecasting system is being developed to blend satellite-derived rain rate and cloud top height with their corresponding fields derived from the Global Forecasting System (GFS) NWP model. Forecasts will be computed over the 0-12 hr time frame within a domain that encompasses the greater Gulf of Mexico and parts of the continental United States. Tests of various extrapolation techniques have been completed and an optimum technique has been selected. Both the extrapolated and the GFS rain rate forecast performance statistics have been compiled. Considering the relative strength of the NWP model and the satellite-based extrapolation forecasts, a dynamical-weighting technique, similar to what is being used in CoSPA, has been tested. The weights are determined by past performance of extrapolation and model forecasts as a function of forecast lead time. A prototype blended forecasting system for oceanic convection using dynamical-weighting techniques has been developed and preliminary results of the blended forecasting system will be reported at the conference.

  4. Grey Forecast Rainfall with Flow Updating Algorithm for Real-Time Flood Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jui-Yi Ho

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The dynamic relationship between watershed characteristics and rainfall-runoff has been widely studied in recent decades. Since watershed rainfall-runoff is a non-stationary process, most deterministic flood forecasting approaches are ineffective without the assistance of adaptive algorithms. The purpose of this paper is to propose an effective flow forecasting system that integrates a rainfall forecasting model, watershed runoff model, and real-time updating algorithm. This study adopted a grey rainfall forecasting technique, based on existing hourly rainfall data. A geomorphology-based runoff model can be used for simulating impacts of the changing geo-climatic conditions on the hydrologic response of unsteady and non-linear watershed system, and flow updating algorithm were combined to estimate watershed runoff according to measured flow data. The proposed flood forecasting system was applied to three watersheds; one in the United States and two in Northern Taiwan. Four sets of rainfall-runoff simulations were performed to test the accuracy of the proposed flow forecasting technique. The results indicated that the forecast and observed hydrographs are in good agreement for all three watersheds. The proposed flow forecasting system could assist authorities in minimizing loss of life and property during flood events.

  5. Forecasting Renewable Energy Consumption under Zero Assumptions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Ma

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Renewable energy, as an environmentally friendly and sustainable source of energy, is key to realizing the nationally determined contributions of the United States (US to the December 2015 Paris agreement. Policymakers in the US rely on energy forecasts to draft and implement cost-minimizing, efficient and realistic renewable and sustainable energy policies but the inaccuracies in past projections are considerably high. The inaccuracies and inconsistencies in forecasts are due to the numerous factors considered, massive assumptions and modeling flaws in the underlying model. Here, we propose and apply a machine learning forecasting algorithm devoid of massive independent variables and assumptions to model and forecast renewable energy consumption (REC in the US. We employ the forecasting technique to make projections on REC from biomass (REC-BMs and hydroelectric (HE-EC sources for the 2009–2016 period. We find that, relative to reference case projections in Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook 2008, projections based on our proposed technique present an enormous improvement up to ~138.26-fold on REC-BMs and ~24.67-fold on HE-EC; and that applying our technique saves the US ~2692.62PJ petajoules(PJ on HE-EC and ~9695.09PJ on REC-BMs for the 8-year forecast period. The achieved high-accuracy is also replicable to other regions.

  6. Inclusion of routine wind and turbulence forecasts in the Savannah River Plant's emergency response capabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pendergast, M.M.; Gilhousen, D.B.

    1980-01-01

    The Savannah River Plant's emergency response computer system was improved by the implementation of automatic forecasts of wind and turbulence for periods up to 30 hours. The forecasts include wind direction, wind speed, and horizontal and vertical turbulence intensity at 10, 91, and 243 m above ground for the SRP area, and were obtained by using the Model Output Statistics (MOS) technique. A technique was developed and tested to use the 30-hour MOS forecasts of wind and turbulence issued twice daily from the National Weather Service at Suitland, Maryland, into SRP's emergency response program. The technique for combining MOS forecasts, persistence, and adjusted-MOS forecast is used to generate good forecasts any time of day. Wind speed and turbulence forecasts have been shown to produce smaller root mean square errors (RMSE) than forecasts of persistence for time periods over about two hours. For wind direction, the adjusted-MOS forecasts produce smaller RMSE than persistence for times greater than four hours

  7. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Ruelke

    2013-01-01

    We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from...

  8. Production forecasting and economic evaluation of horizontal wells completed in natural fractured reservoirs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evans, R. D.

    1996-01-01

    A technique for optimizing recovery of hydrocarbons from naturally fractured reservoirs using horizontal well technology was proposed. The technique combines inflow performance analysis, production forecasting and economic considerations, and is based on material balance analysis and linear approximations of reservoir fluid properties as functions of reservoir pressure. An economic evaluation model accounting for the time value of cash flow, interest and inflation rates, is part of the package. Examples of using the technique have been demonstrated. The method is also applied to a gas well producing from a horizontal wellbore intersecting discrete natural fractures. 11 refs., 2 tabs,. 10 figs

  9. The Use of Information Technology Techniques in the Construction Industry of Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zubair Ahmed Memon

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Construction sector together with service, manufacturing, agriculture and mining sectors is the main contributors of the Pakistan\\'s GDP (Gross Domestic Product and economic growth. It is also a key indicator in determining the economic performance of the country. As the issues of globalization and trades deregulation, stringer requirements of time, cost, quality and advancement of technologies have become more critical, the sector has to find ways to enhance its operational efficiency and effectiveness. IT (Information Technology as a key enabler has been recognized to be an inseparable tool to sustain business and become more competitive. This paper gives an overview of the current status of IT application and presents the significant results from PCI (Pakistan Construction Industry. The result of survey also highlights the challenges to the construction industry of Pakistan before implementing the IT techniques. A statistical method \\'Average Index\\' is used to analyze the collected data and statistical hypothesis testing is conducted to know the difference between the parameters. The survey produced knowledge about the use of computers, hardware and software, communication and strategies for the use of IT. The use of spread sheets, word processor, CAD (Computer Aided Drafting in general has increased and the use of model based CAD software has increased among the major key players of construction industry. The use of project webs and electronic trade in the industry is not started properly. From the analysis it is concluded that construction firms in Pakistan are mostly using manual procedures and the use of IT seems to be at the inception stage

  10. How is the weather? Forecasting inpatient glycemic control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saulnier, George E; Castro, Janna C; Cook, Curtiss B; Thompson, Bithika M

    2017-11-01

    Apply methods of damped trend analysis to forecast inpatient glycemic control. Observed and calculated point-of-care blood glucose data trends were determined over 62 weeks. Mean absolute percent error was used to calculate differences between observed and forecasted values. Comparisons were drawn between model results and linear regression forecasting. The forecasted mean glucose trends observed during the first 24 and 48 weeks of projections compared favorably to the results provided by linear regression forecasting. However, in some scenarios, the damped trend method changed inferences compared with linear regression. In all scenarios, mean absolute percent error values remained below the 10% accepted by demand industries. Results indicate that forecasting methods historically applied within demand industries can project future inpatient glycemic control. Additional study is needed to determine if forecasting is useful in the analyses of other glucometric parameters and, if so, how to apply the techniques to quality improvement.

  11. Weather forecasting based on hybrid neural model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saba, Tanzila; Rehman, Amjad; AlGhamdi, Jarallah S.

    2017-11-01

    Making deductions and expectations about climate has been a challenge all through mankind's history. Challenges with exact meteorological directions assist to foresee and handle problems well in time. Different strategies have been investigated using various machine learning techniques in reported forecasting systems. Current research investigates climate as a major challenge for machine information mining and deduction. Accordingly, this paper presents a hybrid neural model (MLP and RBF) to enhance the accuracy of weather forecasting. Proposed hybrid model ensure precise forecasting due to the specialty of climate anticipating frameworks. The study concentrates on the data representing Saudi Arabia weather forecasting. The main input features employed to train individual and hybrid neural networks that include average dew point, minimum temperature, maximum temperature, mean temperature, average relative moistness, precipitation, normal wind speed, high wind speed and average cloudiness. The output layer composed of two neurons to represent rainy and dry weathers. Moreover, trial and error approach is adopted to select an appropriate number of inputs to the hybrid neural network. Correlation coefficient, RMSE and scatter index are the standard yard sticks adopted for forecast accuracy measurement. On individual standing MLP forecasting results are better than RBF, however, the proposed simplified hybrid neural model comes out with better forecasting accuracy as compared to both individual networks. Additionally, results are better than reported in the state of art, using a simple neural structure that reduces training time and complexity.

  12. Forecasting in Planning

    OpenAIRE

    Ike, P.; Voogd, Henk; Voogd, Henk; Linden, Gerard

    2004-01-01

    This chapter begins with a discussion of qualitative forecasting by describing a number of methods that depend on judgements made by stakeholders, experts or other interested parties to arrive at forecasts. Two qualitative approaches are illuminated, the Delphi and scenario methods respectively. Quantitative forecasting is illustrated with a brief overview of time series methods. Both qualitative and quantitative methods are illustrated by an example. The role and relative importance of forec...

  13. Commuter Airline Forecasts,

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-05-01

    conterminous United States (48 contiguous states and the District of Columbia), for the State of Hawaii, and for the U.S. Carribean areas, Puerto Rico and U.S...FAA 15. Supplementary Notes I Abstract This publication presents forecasts of cammuter air carrier activity and describes the models designed for...forecasting Contenninous United States, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, Hawaii, and individual airport activity. These forecasts take into account the

  14. SEMINAIRE DE L'ENSEIGNEMENT TECHNIQUE Nouvelles Technologies en Tuyauteries Multicouches - French version only

    CERN Multimedia

    Davide Vitè

    2002-01-01

    Mardi 28 mai, mercredi 29 mai 28 mai, 9:30 - 12:00 - Training Centre Auditorium, Room 11, bldg. 593 28 mai, 14:00 - 17:00; 29 mai, 9:00 - 12:00 - Training Centre Rooms 13 and 15, bldg. 593 Nouvelles Technologies en Tuyauteries Multicouches Jacques Dougoud / GEBERIT SA, Lausanne, Suisse Mario Bettini / GEORG FISCHER PFCI S.r.l., Peschiera del Garda, Brescia, Italie Christian Tacco / VALSIR S.P.A., Vestone, Brescia, Italie Depuis quelques années l'apparition de tubes multicouches a changé radicalement la conception des tuyauteries, tant pour les applications industrielles que domestiques. Les utilisations au CERN concernent pratiquement tous les fluides, c'est-à-dire eau sanitaire, eau déminéralisée, air comprimé, fluorocarbones liquides ou gazeux, et tous les gaz, depuis l'hélium jusqu'au xénon. Ce séminaire de l'Enseignement Technique est adressé à toute personne concern&eac...

  15. Review on Enhanced Heat Transfer Techniques using Modern Technologies for 4S Air Cooled Engines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramasubramanian, S.; Bupesh Raja, V. K.

    2017-05-01

    Engine performance is a biggest challenge and a vital area of concern when it comes to automobiles. Researchers across the globe have been working decades together meticulously improvising the performance of engine in terms of efficiency. The durability of the engine components mainly depends on the thermal stress it undergoes over the period of operation. Air cooling of engine is the simplest and most desirous technique that has been adopted for ages. In this regard fins or extended surfaces are employed for effective cooling of the cylinder while in operation. The conductive and convective heat transfer rate from the cylinder to the fins and in turn from the fins to surrounding ambience determines the effective performance of the engine. In this paper an attempt is made to review and summarize the various researches that were conducted on the Fins in terms of profile geometry, number of fins, size, thickness factor, material used etc., and to bring about a long term solution with the modern technologies like nano coatings and nano materials.

  16. To the problem of using information technologies capabilities in the training process for technique of motor actions in wrestling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tupeev Y.V.

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Presents the generalized data about the information technologies capabilities in the system of scientific-methodical maintenance of sport training. The directions of efficiency increasing of training to technique of junior wrestler's motor actions are identified. The structure and capabilities of designed computer program "Champion" are presented. The prospective of innovation approaches to training of basic technique of junior wrestler's motor actions is identified.

  17. Downscaling of GCM forecasts to streamflow over Scandinavia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nilsson, P.; Uvo, C.B.; Landman, W.A.

    2008-01-01

    A seasonal forecasting technique to produce probabilistic and deterministic streamflow forecasts for 23 basins in Norway and northern Sweden is developed in this work. Large scale circulation and moisture fields, forecasted by the ECHAM4.5 model 4 months in advance, are used to forecast spring...... flows. The technique includes model output statistics (MOS) based on a non-linear Neural Network (NN) approach. Results show that streamflow forecasts from Global Circulation Model (GCM) predictions, for the Scandinavia region are viable and highest skill values were found for basins located in south......-western Norway. The physical interpretation of the forecasting skill is that stations close to the Norwegian coast are directly exposed to prevailing winds from the Atlantic ocean, which constitute the principal source of predictive information from the atmosphere on the seasonal timescale....

  18. Objective Identification of Environmental Patterns Related to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Errors

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Sanabia, Elizabeth R

    2006-01-01

    The increase in skill of numerical model guidance and the use of consensus forecast techniques have led to significant improvements in the accuracy of tropical cyclone track forecasts at ranges beyond 72 hours...

  19. Statistical forecasting of met-ocean parameters in the Cochin estuarine system, southwest coast of India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Srinivas, K.; Revichandran, C.; DineshKumar, P.K.

    Three different statistical forecasting techniques - autoregressive, sinusoidal and exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) were used to forecast monthly values of meteorological and oceanographic (met-ocean) parameters viz. sea surface...

  20. Technique for Determination of Rational Boundaries in Combining Construction and Installation Processes Based on Quantitative Estimation of Technological Connections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gusev, E. V.; Mukhametzyanov, Z. R.; Razyapov, R. V.

    2017-11-01

    The problems of the existing methods for the determination of combining and technologically interlinked construction processes and activities are considered under the modern construction conditions of various facilities. The necessity to identify common parameters that characterize the interaction nature of all the technology-related construction and installation processes and activities is shown. The research of the technologies of construction and installation processes for buildings and structures with the goal of determining a common parameter for evaluating the relationship between technologically interconnected processes and construction works are conducted. The result of this research was to identify the quantitative evaluation of interaction construction and installation processes and activities in a minimum technologically necessary volume of the previous process allowing one to plan and organize the execution of a subsequent technologically interconnected process. The quantitative evaluation is used as the basis for the calculation of the optimum range of the combination of processes and activities. The calculation method is based on the use of the graph theory. The authors applied a generic characterization parameter to reveal the technological links between construction and installation processes, and the proposed technique has adaptive properties which are key for wide use in organizational decisions forming. The article provides a written practical significance of the developed technique.

  1. Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting: A Review of Recent Research

    OpenAIRE

    Song, H; Li, G

    2008-01-01

    This paper reviews the published studies on tourism demand modelling and forecasting since 2000. One of the key findings of this review is that the methods used in analysing and forecasting the demand for tourism have been more diverse than those identified by other review articles. In addition to the most popular time-series and econometric models, a number of new techniques have emerged in the literature. However, as far as the forecasting accuracy is concerned, the study shows that there i...

  2. Clear turbulence forecasting - Towards a union of art and science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, J. L.

    1985-01-01

    The development of clear air turbulence (CAT) forecasting over the last several decades is reviewed in the context of empirical and theoretical research into the nature of nonconvective turbulence in the free atmosphere, particularly at jet stream levels. Various qualitative CAT forecasting techniques are examined, and prospects for an effective quantitative index to aid aviation meteorologists in jet stream level turbulence monitoring and forecasting are examined. Finally, the use of on-board sensors for short-term warning is discussed.

  3. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Pierdzioch

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time.

  4. World Area Forecast System (WAFS)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The World Area Forecast System (WAFS) is a worldwide system by which world area forecast centers provide aeronautical meteorological en-route forecasts in uniform...

  5. [Integration and demonstration of key techniques in surveillance and forecast of schistosomiasis in Jiangsu Province III Development of a machine simultaneously integrating mechanized environmental cleaning and automatic mollusciciding].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Fu-biao; Ma, Yu-cai; Sun, Le-ping; Hong, Qing-biao; Gao, Yang; Zhang, Chang-lin; Du, Guang-lin; Lu, Da-qin; Sun, Zhi-yong; Wang, Wei; Dai, Jian-rong; Liang, You-sheng

    2016-02-01

    To develop a machine simultaneously integrating mechanized environmental cleaning and automatic mollusciciding and to evaluate its effectiveness of field application, so as to provide a novel Oncomelania hupensis snail control technique in the large-scale marshlands. The machine simultaneously integrating mechanized environmental cleaning and automatic mollusciciding, which was suitable for use in complex marshland areas, was developed according to the mechanization and automation principles, and was used for O. hupensis snail control in the marshland. The effect of the machine on environmental cleaning and plough was evaluated, and the distribution of living snails was observed at various soil layers following plough. The snail control effects of plough alone and plough followed by mollusciciding were compared. The machine could simultaneously complete the procedures of getting vegetation down and cut vegetation into pieces, plough and snail control by spraying niclosamide. After plough, the constituent ratios of living snails were 36.31%, 25.60%, 22.62% and 15.48% in the soil layers at depths of 0-5, 6-10, 11-15 cm and 16-20 cm respectively, and 61.91% living snails were found in the 0-10 cm soil layers. Seven and fifteen days after the experiment, the mortality rates of snails were 9.38% and 8.29% in the plough alone group, and 63.04% and 80.70% in the plough + mollusciciding group respectively (χ²₇ d = 42.74, χ²₁₅ d = 155.56, both P values mollusciciding group, which decreased by 64.92% and 93.60%, respectively, and the decrease rate of snail density was approximately 30% higher in the plough + mollusciciding group than that in the plough alone group. The machine simultaneously integrating mechanized environmental cleaning and automatic mollusciciding achieves the integration of mechanical environmental cleaning and automatic niclosamide spraying in the complex marshland areas, which provides a novel technique of field snail control in the large

  6. Applying Laser Cutting Techniques through Horology for Teaching Effective STEM in Design and Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Lewis C. R.; Tyrer, John R.; Zanker, Nigel P.

    2013-01-01

    This paper explores the pedagogy underpinning the use of laser manufacturing methods for the teaching of science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) at key stage 3 design and technology. Clock making (horology) has been a popular project in design and technology (D&T) found in many schools, typically it focuses on aesthetical…

  7. Day ahead price forecasting of electricity markets by a mixed data model and hybrid forecast method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amjady, Nima; Keynia, Farshid

    2008-01-01

    In a competitive electricity market, forecast of energy prices is a key information for the market participants. However, price signal usually has a complex behavior due to its nonlinearity, nonstationarity, and time variancy. In spite of all performed researches on this area in the recent years, there is still an essential need for more accurate and robust price forecast methods. In this paper, a combination of wavelet transform (WT) and a hybrid forecast method is proposed for this purpose. The hybrid method is composed of cascaded forecasters where each forecaster consists of a neural network (NN) and an evolutionary algorithms (EA). Both time domain and wavelet domain features are considered in a mixed data model for price forecast, in which the candidate input variables are refined by a feature selection technique. The adjustable parameters of the whole method are fine-tuned by a cross-validation technique. The proposed method is examined on PJM electricity market and compared with some of the most recent price forecast methods. (author)

  8. Forecasting in Planning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ike, P.; Voogd, Henk; Voogd, Henk; Linden, Gerard

    2004-01-01

    This chapter begins with a discussion of qualitative forecasting by describing a number of methods that depend on judgements made by stakeholders, experts or other interested parties to arrive at forecasts. Two qualitative approaches are illuminated, the Delphi and scenario methods respectively.

  9. Report on achievements in fiscal 1998. Research and development of a technology to forecast environmental effect in association with isolation of carbon dioxide in oceans. (Surveys on development and research support on a technology to forecast environmental effect in areas in the vicinity of CO2 discharging points); 1998 nendo nisanka tanso no kaiyo kakuri ni tomonau kankyo eikyo yosoku gijutsu kenkyu kaihatsu seika hokokusho. CO{sub 2} horyuten shuhen'iki no kankyo eikyo yosoku gijutsu no kaihatsu narabini kenkyu shien chosa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1999-03-01

    Atmospheric concentration of CO2 is increasing, and discussions are urged on measures to suppress emission of CO2 into atmosphere. While different CO2 fixing technologies may be conceived, there is a technology to utilize CO2 absorbing capability of ocean by discharging and dissolving CO2 artificially into middle layer of the ocean to separate CO2 from atmosphere. This technology is one of the technologies which are promising in the aspects of technology, economic performance, and possible amount of CO2 reduction. However, it is difficult to say that scientific and technological discussions have been given sufficiently on behavior of CO2 discharged into the ocean, effect of the discharge on environments, and CO2 separation capability of the ocean. Therefore, in the present research and development, a 'technology to forecast environmental effect in areas in the vicinity of CO2 discharging points' is developed to serve for acquiring technological prospect on the feasibility to realize the CO2 ocean separation by discharging CO2 into the middle layer of the ocean. The present fiscal year has performed researches on the following research and development items: elucidation of behavior of liquefied CO2 when discharged into the ocean, CO2 feeding and diluting technologies, indoor experiments on the effects of CO2 on ocean living organisms, and development of a model to forecast environments in areas in the vicinity of CO2 discharging points. (NEDO)

  10. Determining the most important factors for sustainable energy technology selection in Africa: application of the Delphi technique

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Barry, M-L

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available into account when identifying the most sustainable technological systems in the African context. The study utilised the Delphi technique. The questionnaire of the first round was based on factors identified during a focus group exercise with energy experts...

  11. Techniques Use by Science, Technology and Mathematics (STM) Teachers for Controlling Undesirable Classroom Behaviours in Anambra State Secondary Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chinelo, Okigbo Ebele; Nwanneka, Okoli Josephine

    2016-01-01

    This study investigated the techniques used by secondary school Science Technology and Mathematics (STM) teachers in controlling undesirable behaviours in their classrooms. It adopted descriptive survey design in which 178 Anambra State teachers teaching STM subjects in senior secondary were involved in the research. Two sections of questionnaire…

  12. Sub-Seasonal Climate Forecast Rodeo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, R. S.; Nowak, K.; Cifelli, R.; Brekke, L. D.

    2017-12-01

    The Bureau of Reclamation, as the largest water wholesaler and the second largest producer of hydropower in the United States, benefits from skillful forecasts of future water availability. Researchers, water managers from local, regional, and federal agencies, and groups such as the Western States Water Council agree that improved precipitation and temperature forecast information at the sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescale is an area with significant potential benefit to water management. In response, and recognizing NOAA's leadership in forecasting, Reclamation has partnered with NOAA to develop and implement a real-time S2S forecasting competition. For a year, solvers are submitting forecasts of temperature and precipitation for weeks 3&4 and 5&6 every two weeks on a 1x1 degree grid for the 17 western state domain where Reclamation operates. The competition began on April 18, 2017 and the final real-time forecast is due April 3, 2018. Forecasts are evaluated once observational data become available using spatial anomaly correlation. Scores are posted on a competition leaderboard hosted by the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS). The leaderboard can be accessed at: https://www.drought.gov/drought/sub-seasonal-climate-forecast-rodeo. To be eligible for cash prizes - which total $800,000 - solvers must outperform two benchmark forecasts during the real-time competition as well as in a required 11-year hind-cast. To receive a prize, competitors must grant a non-exclusive license to practice their forecast technique and make it available as open source software. At approximately one quarter complete, there are teams outperforming the benchmarks in three of the four competition categories. With prestige and monetary incentives on the line, it is hoped that the competition will spur innovation of improved S2S forecasts through novel approaches, enhancements to established models, or otherwise. Additionally, the competition aims to raise

  13. Mountain range specific analog weather forecast model for ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    hazard evaluation; Canadian Geotechnical Journal 7. 414–419. Sharma S S and Ganju A 2000 Complexities of avalanche forecasting in Western Himalaya: An overview; Cold. Regions Science and Technology 31 95–102. Singh A and Ganju A 2004 A supplement to nearest neigh- bour method for avalanche forecasting; ...

  14. Does money matter in inflation forecasting?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Binner, J. M.; Tino, P.; Tepper, J.; Anderson, R.; Jones, B.; Kendall, G.

    2010-11-01

    This paper provides the most fully comprehensive evidence to date on whether or not monetary aggregates are valuable for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different collections of included monetary assets. In our forecasting experiment we use two nonlinear techniques, namely, recurrent neural networks and kernel recursive least squares regression-techniques that are new to macroeconomics. Recurrent neural networks operate with potentially unbounded input memory, while the kernel regression technique is a finite memory predictor. The two methodologies compete to find the best fitting US inflation forecasting models and are then compared to forecasts from a naïve random walk model. The best models were nonlinear autoregressive models based on kernel methods. Our findings do not provide much support for the usefulness of monetary aggregates in forecasting inflation. Beyond its economic findings, our study is in the tradition of physicists’ long-standing interest in the interconnections among statistical mechanics, neural networks, and related nonparametric statistical methods, and suggests potential avenues of extension for such studies.

  15. Forecasting Ontario's blood supply and demand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drackley, Adam; Newbold, K Bruce; Paez, Antonio; Heddle, Nancy

    2012-02-01

    Given an aging population that requires increased medical care, an increasing number of deferrals from the donor pool, and a growing immigrant population that typically has lower donation rates, the purpose of this article is to forecast Ontario's blood supply and demand. We calculate age- and sex-specific donation and demand rates for blood supply based on 2008 data and project demand between 2008 and 2036 based on these rates and using population data from the Ontario Ministry of Finance. Results indicate that blood demand will outpace supply as early as 2012. For instance, while the total number of donations made by older cohorts is expected to increase in the coming years, the number of red blood cell (RBC) transfusions in the 70+ age group is forecasted grow from approximately 53% of all RBC transfusions in 2008 (209,515) in 2008 to 68% (546,996) by 2036. A series of alternate scenarios, including projections based on a 2% increase in supply per year and increased use of apheresis technology, delays supply shortfalls, but does not eliminate them without active management and/or multiple methods to increase supply and decrease demand. Predictions show that demand for blood products will outpace supply in the near future given current age- and sex-specific supply and demand rates. However, we note that the careful management of the blood supply by Canadian Blood Services, along with new medical techniques and the recruitment of new donors to the system, will remove future concerns. © 2012 American Association of Blood Banks.

  16. A Public-Private-Acadmic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haupt, Sue Ellen [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2016-04-19

    The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is pleased to have led a partnership to advance the state-of-the-science of solar power forecasting by designing, developing, building, deploying, testing, and assessing the SunCast™ Solar Power Forecasting System. The project has included cutting edge research, testing in several geographically- and climatologically-diverse high penetration solar utilities and Independent System Operators (ISOs), and wide dissemination of the research results to raise the bar on solar power forecasting technology. The partners include three other national laboratories, six universities, and industry partners. This public-private-academic team has worked in concert to perform use-inspired research to advance solar power forecasting through cutting-edge research to advance both the necessary forecasting technologies and the metrics for evaluating them. The project has culminated in a year-long, full-scale demonstration of provide irradiance and power forecasts to utilities and ISOs to use in their operations. The project focused on providing elements of a value chain, beginning with the weather that causes a deviation from clear sky irradiance and progresses through monitoring and observations, modeling, forecasting, dissemination and communication of the forecasts, interpretation of the forecast, and through decision-making, which produces outcomes that have an economic value. The system has been evaluated using metrics developed specifically for this project, which has provided rich information on model and system performance. Research was accomplished on the very short range (0-6 hours) Nowcasting system as well as on the longer term (6-72 hour) forecasting system. The shortest range forecasts are based on observations in the field. The shortest range system, built by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) and based on Total Sky Imagers (TSIs) is TSICast, which operates on the shortest time scale with a latency of only a few

  17. The strategy of professional forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ottaviani, Marco; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    2006-01-01

    We develop and compare two theories of professional forecasters’ strategic behavior. The first theory, reputational cheap talk, posits that forecasters endeavor to convince the market that they are well informed. The market evaluates their forecasting talent on the basis of the forecasts and the ......We develop and compare two theories of professional forecasters’ strategic behavior. The first theory, reputational cheap talk, posits that forecasters endeavor to convince the market that they are well informed. The market evaluates their forecasting talent on the basis of the forecasts...... and the realized state. If the market expects forecasters to report their posterior expectations honestly, then forecasts are shaded toward the prior mean. With correct market expectations, equilibrium forecasts are imprecise but not shaded. The second theory posits that forecasters compete in a forecasting...

  18. Online short-term solar power forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg

    2009-01-01

    This paper describes a new approach to online forecasting of power production from PV systems. The method is suited to online forecasting in many applications and in this paper it is used to predict hourly values of solar power for horizons of up to 36 hours. The data used is fifteen-minute obser......This paper describes a new approach to online forecasting of power production from PV systems. The method is suited to online forecasting in many applications and in this paper it is used to predict hourly values of solar power for horizons of up to 36 hours. The data used is fifteen......-minute observations of solar power from 21 PV systems located on rooftops in a small village in Denmark. The suggested method is a two-stage method where first a statistical normalization of the solar power is obtained using a clear sky model. The clear sky model is found using statistical smoothing techniques....... Then forecasts of the normalized solar power are calculated using adaptive linear time series models. Both autoregressive (AR) and AR with exogenous input (ARX) models are evaluated, where the latter takes numerical weather predictions (NWPs) as input. The results indicate that for forecasts up to two hours...

  19. New product forecasting with limited or no data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismai, Zuhaimy; Abu, Noratikah; Sufahani, Suliadi

    2016-10-01

    In the real world, forecasts would always be based on historical data with the assumption that the behaviour be the same for the future. But how do we forecast when there is no such data available? New product or new technologies normally has limited amount of data available. Knowing that forecasting is valuable for decision making, this paper presents forecasting of new product or new technologies using aggregate diffusion models and modified Bass Model. A newly launched Proton car and its penetration was chosen to demonstrate the possibility of forecasting sales demand where there is limited or no data available. The model was developed to forecast diffusion of new vehicle or an innovation in the Malaysian society. It is to represent the level of spread on the new vehicle among a given set of the society in terms of a simple mathematical function that elapsed since the introduction of the new product. This model will forecast the car sales volume. A procedure of the proposed diffusion model was designed and the parameters were estimated. Results obtained by applying the proposed diffusion model and numerical calculation shows that the model is robust and effective for forecasting demand of the new vehicle. The results reveal that newly developed modified Bass diffusion of demand function has significantly contributed for forecasting the diffusion of new Proton car or new product.

  20. Improving Artificial Neural Network Forecasts with Kalman Filtering ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper, we examine the use of the artificial neural network method as a forecasting technique in financial time series and the application of a Kalman filter algorithm to improve the accuracy of the model. Forecasting accuracy criteria are used to compare the two models over different set of data from different companies ...

  1. Seasonal forecasting of Bangladesh summer monsoon rainfall using ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    increasing demand for decision makers and plan- ners of the country in mitigating any kind of disaster like food crisis and water scarcity. Seasonal forecasting systems are usually cat- egorized into two types, namely dynamical and hybrid (i.e., combination of dynamical and statis- tical forecasting). Dynamical techniques are ...

  2. A Simple Hybrid Model for Short-Term Load Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suseelatha Annamareddi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper proposes a simple hybrid model to forecast the electrical load data based on the wavelet transform technique and double exponential smoothing. The historical noisy load series data is decomposed into deterministic and fluctuation components using suitable wavelet coefficient thresholds and wavelet reconstruction method. The variation characteristics of the resulting series are analyzed to arrive at reasonable thresholds that yield good denoising results. The constitutive series are then forecasted using appropriate exponential adaptive smoothing models. A case study performed on California energy market data demonstrates that the proposed method can offer high forecasting precision for very short-term forecasts, considering a time horizon of two weeks.

  3. Differences in blood pressure by measurement technique in neurocritically ill patients: A technological assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lele, Abhijit V; Wilson, Daren; Chalise, Prabhakar; Nazzaro, Jules; Krishnamoorthy, Vijay; Vavilala, Monica S

    2018-01-01

    Blood pressure data may vary by measurement technique. We performed a technological assessment of differences in blood pressure measurement between non-invasive blood pressure (NIBP) and invasive arterial blood pressure (ABP) in neurocritically ill patients. After IRB approval, a prospective observational study was performed to study differences in systolic blood pressure (SBP), mean arterial pressure (MAP), and cerebral perfusion pressure (CPP) values measured by NIBP arm, ABP at level of the phlebostatic axis (ABP heart) and ABP at level of the external auditory meatus (ABP brain) at 30 and 45-degree head of bed elevation (HOB) using repeated measure analysis of covariance and correlation coefficients. Overall, 168 patients were studied with median age of 57 ± 15 years, were mostly female (57%), with body mass index ≤30 (66%). Twenty-three percent (n = 39) had indwelling intracranial pressure monitors, and 19.7% (n = 33) received vasoactive agents. ABP heart overestimated ABP brain for SBP (11.5 ± 2.7 mmHg, p < .001), MAP (mean difference 13.3 ± 0.5 mmHg, p < .001) and CPP (13.4 ± 3.2 mmHg, p < .001). ABP heart overestimated NIBP arm for SBP (8 ± 1.5 mmHg, p < .001), MAP (mean difference 8.6 ± 0.8 mmHg, p < .001), and CPP (mean difference 9.8 ± 3.2 mmHg, p < .001). Regardless of HOB elevation, ABP heart overestimates MAP compared to ABP brain and NIBP arm. Using ABP heart data overestimates CPP and may be responsible for not achieving SBP, MAP or CPP targets aimed at the brain. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Space weather forecasting: Past, Present, Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lanzerotti, L. J.

    2012-12-01

    There have been revolutionary advances in electrical technologies over the last 160 years. The historical record demonstrates that space weather processes have often provided surprises in the implementation and operation of many of these technologies. The historical record also demonstrates that as the complexity of systems increase, including their interconnectedness and interoperability, they can become more susceptible to space weather effects. An engineering goal, beginning during the decades following the 1859 Carrington event, has been to attempt to forecast solar-produced disturbances that could affect technical systems, be they long grounded conductor-based or radio-based or required for exploration, or the increasingly complex systems immersed in the space environment itself. Forecasting of space weather events involves both frontier measurements and models to address engineering requirements, and industrial and governmental policies that encourage and permit creativity and entrepreneurship. While analogies of space weather forecasting to terrestrial weather forecasting are frequently made, and while many of the analogies are valid, there are also important differences. This presentation will provide some historical perspectives on the forecast problem, a personal assessment of current status of several areas including important policy issues, and a look into the not-too-distant future.

  5. Spatial electric load forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Willis, H Lee

    2002-01-01

    Spatial Electric Load Forecasting Consumer Demand for Power and ReliabilityCoincidence and Load BehaviorLoad Curve and End-Use ModelingWeather and Electric LoadWeather Design Criteria and Forecast NormalizationSpatial Load Growth BehaviorSpatial Forecast Accuracy and Error MeasuresTrending MethodsSimulation Method: Basic ConceptsA Detailed Look at the Simulation MethodBasics of Computerized SimulationAnalytical Building Blocks for Spatial SimulationAdvanced Elements of Computerized SimulationHybrid Trending-Simulation MethodsAdvanced

  6. Short Cuts and Extended Techniques: Rethinking Relations between Technology and Educational Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thumlert, Kurt; de Castell, Suzanne; Jenson, Jennifer

    2015-01-01

    Building upon a recent call to renew actor-network theory (ANT) for educational research, this article reconsiders relations between technology and educational theory. Taking cues from actor-network theorists, this discussion considers the technologically-mediated networks in which learning actors are situated, acted upon, and acting, and traces…

  7. Issues in midterm analysis and forecasting, 1996

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-08-01

    This document consists of papers which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1996. Topics include: The Potential Impact of Technological Progress on U.S. Energy Markets; The Outlook for U.S. Import Dependence; Fuel Economy, Vehicle Choice, and Changing Demographics, and Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation

  8. Field analytical techniques for mercury in soils technology evaluation. Topical report, November 1994--March 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Solc, J.; Harju, J.A.; Grisanti, A.A.

    1998-02-01

    This report presents the evaluation of the four field analytical techniques for mercury detection in soils, namely (1) an anodic stripping voltametry technique (ASV) developed and tested by General Electric Corporation; (2) a static headspace analysis (SHSA) technique developed and tested by Dr. Ralph Turner of Oak Ridge National Laboratory; (3) the BiMelyze{reg_sign} Mercury Immunoassay (Bio) developed and tested by BioNebraska, Inc.; and (4) a transportable x-ray fluorescence (XRF) instrument/technique developed and tested by Spectrace, Inc.

  9. Seasonal UK hydrological forecasts using rainfall forecasts - what level of skill?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Victoria; Davies, Helen; Kay, Alison; Scaife, Adam

    2017-04-01

    Skilful winter seasonal predictions for the North Atlantic circulation and Northern Europe, including the UK have now been demonstrated and the potential for seasonal hydrological forecasting in the UK is now being explored. The Hydrological Outlook UK (HOUK: www.hydoutuk.net) is the first operational hydrological forecast system for the UK that delivers monthly outlooks of the water situation for both river flow and groundwater levels. The output from the HOUK are publicly available and used each month by government agencies, practitioners and academics alongside other sources of information such as flood warnings and meteorological forecasts. The HOUK brings together information on current and forecast weather conditions, and river flows, and uses several modelling approaches to explore possible future hydrological conditions. One of the techniques combines ensembles of monthly-resolution seasonal rainfall forecasts provided by the Met Office GloSea5 forecast system with hydrological modelling tools to provide estimates of river flows up to a few months ahead. The approach combines a high resolution, spatially distributed hydrological initial condition (HIC) provided by a hydrological model (Grid-to-Grid) driven by weather observations up to the forecast time origin. Considerable efforts have been made to accommodate the temporal and spatial resolution of the GloSea5 rainfall forecasts (monthly time-step and national-scale) in a spatially distributed forecasting system, leading to the development of a monthly resolution water balance model (WBM) to forecast regional mean river flows for the next 1 and 3 months ahead. The work presented here provides the first assessment of the skill in the HOUK national-scale flow forecasts using an ensemble of rainfall forecasts (hindcasts) from the GloSea5 model (1996 to 2009). The skill in the combined modelling system has been assessed for different seasons and regions of Britain, and compared to what might be achieved using

  10. NYHOPS Forecast Model Results

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — 3D Marine Nowcast/Forecast System for the New York Bight NYHOPS subdomain. Currents, waves, surface meteorology, and water conditions.

  11. Effect of advanced aircraft noise reduction technology on the 1990 projected noise environment around Patrick Henry Airport. [development of noise exposure forecast contours for projected traffic volume and aircraft types

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cawthorn, J. M.; Brown, C. G.

    1974-01-01

    A study has been conducted of the future noise environment of Patric Henry Airport and its neighboring communities projected for the year 1990. An assessment was made of the impact of advanced noise reduction technologies which are currently being considered. These advanced technologies include a two-segment landing approach procedure and aircraft hardware modifications or retrofits which would add sound absorbent material in the nacelles of the engines or which would replace the present two- and three-stage fans with a single-stage fan of larger diameter. Noise Exposure Forecast (NEF) contours were computed for the baseline (nonretrofitted) aircraft for the projected traffic volume and fleet mix for the year 1990. These NEF contours are presented along with contours for a variety of retrofit options. Comparisons of the baseline with the noise reduction options are given in terms of total land area exposed to 30 and 40 NEF levels. Results are also presented of the effects on noise exposure area of the total number of daily operations.

  12. Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Penalized Regression Methods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smeekes, Stephan; Wijler, Etiënne

    2016-01-01

    We study the suitability of lasso-type penalized regression techniques when applied to macroeconomic forecasting with high-dimensional datasets. We consider performance of the lasso-type methods when the true DGP is a factor model, contradicting the sparsity assumption underlying penalized

  13. Towards reliable seasonal ensemble streamflow forecasts for ephemeral rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, James; Wang, Qj; Li, Ming; Robertson, David

    2016-04-01

    Despite their inherently variable nature, ephemeral rivers are an important water resource in many dry regions. Water managers are likely benefit considerably from even mildly skilful ensemble forecasts of streamflow in ephemeral rivers. As with any ensemble forecast, forecast uncertainty - i.e., the spread of the ensemble - must be reliably quantified to allow users of the forecasts to make well-founded decisions. Correctly quantifying uncertainty in ephemeral rivers is particularly challenging because of the high incidence of zero flows, which are difficult to handle with conventional statistical techniques. Here we apply a seasonal streamflow forecasting system, the model for generating Forecast Guided Stochastic Scenarios (FoGSS), to 26 Australian ephemeral rivers. FoGSS uses post-processed ensemble rainfall forecasts from a coupled ocean-atmosphere prediction system to force an initialised monthly rainfall runoff model, and then applies a staged hydrological error model to describe and propagate hydrological uncertainty in the forecast. FoGSS produces 12-month streamflow forecasts; as forecast skill declines with lead time, the forecasts are designed to transit seamlessly to stochastic scenarios. The ensemble rainfall forecasts used in FoGSS are known to be unbiased and reliable, and we concentrate here on the hydrological error model. The FoGSS error model has several features that make it well suited to forecasting ephemeral rivers. First, FoGSS models the error after data is transformed with a log-sinh transformation. The log-sinh transformation is able to normalise even highly skewed data and homogenise its variance, allowing us to assume that errors are Gaussian. Second, FoGSS handles zero values using data censoring. Data censoring allows streamflow in ephemeral rivers to be treated as a continuous variable, rather than having to model the occurrence of non-zero values and the distribution of non-zero values separately. This greatly simplifies parameter

  14. Smart Irrigation From Soil Moisture Forecast Using Satellite And Hydro -Meteorological Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corbari, Chiara; Mancini, Marco; Ravazzani, Giovanni; Ceppi, Alessandro; Salerno, Raffaele; Sobrino, Josè

    2017-04-01

    Increased water demand and climate change impacts have recently enhanced the need to improve water resources management, even in those areas which traditionally have an abundant supply of water. The highest consumption of water is devoted to irrigation for agricultural production, and so it is in this area that efforts have to be focused to study possible interventions. The SIM project funded by EU in the framework of the WaterWorks2014 - Water Joint Programming Initiative aims at developing an operational tool for real-time forecast of crops irrigation water requirements to support parsimonious water management and to optimize irrigation scheduling providing real-time and forecasted soil moisture behavior at high spatial and temporal resolutions with forecast horizons from few up to thirty days. This study discusses advances in coupling satellite driven soil water balance model and meteorological forecast as support for precision irrigation use comparing different case studies in Italy, in the Netherlands, in China and Spain, characterized by different climatic conditions, water availability, crop types and irrigation techniques and water distribution rules. Herein, the applications in two operative farms in vegetables production in the South of Italy where semi-arid climatic conditions holds, two maize fields in Northern Italy in a more water reach environment with flood irrigation will be presented. This system combines state of the art mathematical models and new technologies for environmental monitoring, merging ground observed data with Earth observations. Discussion on the methodology approach is presented, comparing for a reanalysis periods the forecast system outputs with observed soil moisture and crop water needs proving the reliability of the forecasting system and its benefits. The real-time visualization of the implemented system is also presented through web-dashboards.

  15. THE OPTIMIZATION OF TECHNOLOGICAL MINING PARAMETERS IN QUARRY FOR DIMENSION STONE BLOCKS QUALITY IMPROVEMENT BASED ON PHOTOGRAMMETRIC TECHNIQUES OF MEASUREMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Ruslan Sobolevskyi; Valentyn Korobiichuk; Volodymyr Levytskyi

    2018-01-01

    This research focuses on patterns of change in the dimension stone commodity blocks quality production on previously identifi ed and measured geometrical parameters of natural cracks, modelling and planning out the fi nal dimension of stone products and fi nished products based on the proposed digital photogrammetric techniques. The optimal parameters of surveying are investigated and the infl uence of surveying distance to length and crack area is estimated. Rational technological parameters of ...

  16. Development of Grating Technology for High-Resolution Spectrometers Using Nanofabrication Techniques

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Several of astronomy's key future science objectives as identified by NASA can be achieved with soft X-ray spectroscopy. This study seeks to develop a new technique...

  17. Forecasts of demand for electricity: 1980 - 2000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1981-01-01

    Forecasts of the growth rate of electrical energy consumption in Canada over the period 1980 to 2000 are presented and then translated into requirements for generating capacity beyond existing and currently committed facilities. Two sets of forecasts are presented: one based on statistical modelling techniques of the Dept. of Energy, Mines and Resources, and a second which represents the views of each provincial electrical utility. It is possible to foresee the need for from two to seven more power reactors beyond Darlington in Ontario, and there is a potential role for nuclear generation in Quebec beyond the mid-1990s. The Atlantic region could accommodate a second reactor in the 1990s

  18. Incorporating the Delphi Technique to investigate renewable energy technology transfer in Saudi Arabia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Otaibi, Nasir K.

    Saudi Arabia is a major oil-producing nation facing a rapidly-growing population, high unemployment, climate change, and the depletion of its natural resources, potentially including its oil supply. Technology transfer is regarded as a means to diversify countries' economies beyond their natural resources. This dissertation examined the opportunities and barriers to utilizing technology transfer successfully to build renewable energy resources in Saudi Arabia to diversify the economy beyond oil production. Examples of other developing countries that have successfully used technology transfer to transform their economies are explored, including Japan, Malayasia, and the United Arab Emirates. Brazil is presented as a detailed case study to illustrate its transition to an economy based to a much greater degree than before on renewable energy. Following a pilot study, the Delphi Method was used in this research to gather the opinions of a panel of technology transfer experts consisting of 10 heterogeneous members of different institutions in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, including aviation, telecommunication, oil industry, education, health systems, and military and governmental organizations. In three rounds of questioning, the experts identified Education, Dependence on Oil, and Manpower as the 3 most significant factors influencing the potential for success of renewable energy technology transfer for Saudi Arabia. Political factors were also rated toward the "Very Important" end of a Likert scale and were discussed as they impact Education, Oil Dependence, and Manpower. The experts' opinions are presented and interpreted. They form the basis for recommended future research and discussion of how in light of its political system and its dependence on oil, Saudi Arabia can realistically move forward on renewable energy technology transfer and secure its economic future.

  19. Cigeo. The French deep geological repository for radioactive waste. Excavation techniques and technologies tested in underground laboratory and forecasted for the future construction of the project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chauvet, Francois; Bosgiraud, Jean-Michel

    2015-01-01

    Cigeo is the French project for the repository of the high activity and intermediate long-lived radioactive waste. It will be situated at a depth of 500 m, In a clayish rock formation. An underground laboratory was built in the year 2000 and numerous tests are performed since 15 years, in order to know in detail the behavior of the rock and its ability to confine radioactive elements. In addition, this underground laboratory has brought and will continue to bring many lessons on the excavation methods to be chosen for the construction of Cigeo.

  20. Midterm Electricity Market Clearing Price Forecasting Using Two-Stage Multiple Support Vector Machine

    OpenAIRE

    Yan, Xing; Chowdhury, Nurul A.

    2015-01-01

    Currently, there are many techniques available for short-term forecasting of the electricity market clearing price (MCP), but very little work has been done in the area of midterm forecasting of the electricity MCP. The midterm forecasting of the electricity MCP is essential for maintenance scheduling, planning, bilateral contracting, resources reallocation, and budgeting. A two-stage multiple support vector machine (SVM) based midterm forecasting model of the electricity MCP is proposed in t...

  1. SCADA-based Operator Support System for Power Plant Equipment Fault Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayadevi, N.; Ushakumari, S. S.; Vinodchandra, S. S.

    2014-12-01

    Power plant equipment must be monitored closely to prevent failures from disrupting plant availability. Online monitoring technology integrated with hybrid forecasting techniques can be used to prevent plant equipment faults. A self learning rule-based expert system is proposed in this paper for fault forecasting in power plants controlled by supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system. Self-learning utilizes associative data mining algorithms on the SCADA history database to form new rules that can dynamically update the knowledge base of the rule-based expert system. In this study, a number of popular associative learning algorithms are considered for rule formation. Data mining results show that the Tertius algorithm is best suited for developing a learning engine for power plants. For real-time monitoring of the plant condition, graphical models are constructed by K-means clustering. To build a time-series forecasting model, a multi layer preceptron (MLP) is used. Once created, the models are updated in the model library to provide an adaptive environment for the proposed system. Graphical user interface (GUI) illustrates the variation of all sensor values affecting a particular alarm/fault, as well as the step-by-step procedure for avoiding critical situations and consequent plant shutdown. The forecasting performance is evaluated by computing the mean absolute error and root mean square error of the predictions.

  2. Improving operational flood forecasting through data assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rakovec, Oldrich; Weerts, Albrecht; Uijlenhoet, Remko; Hazenberg, Pieter; Torfs, Paul

    2010-05-01

    Accurate flood forecasts have been a challenging topic in hydrology for decades. Uncertainty in hydrological forecasts is due to errors in initial state (e.g. forcing errors in historical mode), errors in model structure and parameters and last but not least the errors in model forcings (weather forecasts) during the forecast mode. More accurate flood forecasts can be obtained through data assimilation by merging observations with model simulations. This enables to identify the sources of uncertainties in the flood forecasting system. Our aim is to assess the different sources of error that affect the initial state and to investigate how they propagate through hydrological models with different levels of spatial variation, starting from lumped models. The knowledge thus obtained can then be used in a data assimilation scheme to improve the flood forecasts. This study presents the first results of this framework and focuses on quantifying precipitation errors and its effect on discharge simulations within the Ourthe catchment (1600 km2), which is situated in the Belgian Ardennes and is one of the larger subbasins of the Meuse River. Inside the catchment, hourly rain gauge information from 10 different locations is available over a period of 15 years. Based on these time series, the bootstrap method has been applied to generate precipitation ensembles. These were then used to simulate the catchment's discharges at the outlet. The corresponding streamflow ensembles were further assimilated with observed river discharges to update the model states of lumped hydrological models (R-PDM, HBV) through Residual Resampling. This particle filtering technique is a sequential data assimilation method and takes no prior assumption of the probability density function for the model states, which in contrast to the Ensemble Kalman filter does not have to be Gaussian. Our further research will be aimed at quantifying and reducing the sources of uncertainty that affect the initial

  3. Freeze-drying technology: A separation technique for liquid nuclear materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Musgrave, J.A.; Efurd, D.W.; Banar, J.C.

    1997-01-01

    Freeze-drying technology (FDT) has been around for several decades as a separation technology. Most commonly, FDT is associated with the processing of food, but the largest industrial-scale use of FDT is in the pharmaceutical industry. Through a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) with BOC Edwards Calumatic, we are demonstrating the feasibility of FDT as a waste minimization and pollution prevention technology. This is a novel and innovative application of FDT. In addition, we plan to demonstrate that the freeze-dried residue is an ideal feed material for ceramic stabilization of radioactive waste and excess fissile material. The objective of this work is to demonstrate the feasibility of FDT for the separation of complex radioactive and nonradioactive materials, including liquids, slurries, and sludges containing a wide variety of constituents in which the separation factors are >10 8 . This is the first application of FDT in which the condensate is of primary importance. Our focus is applying this technology to the elimination of radioactive liquid discharges from facilities at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and within the U.S. Department of Energy complex; however, successful demonstration will lead to nuclear industry-wide applications

  4. Addressing forecast uncertainty impact on CSP annual performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferretti, Fabio; Hogendijk, Christopher; Aga, Vipluv; Ehrsam, Andreas

    2017-06-01

    This work analyzes the impact of weather forecast uncertainty on the annual performance of a Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) plant. Forecast time series has been produced by a commercial forecast provider using the technique of hindcasting for the full year 2011 in hourly resolution for Ouarzazate, Morocco. Impact of forecast uncertainty has been measured on three case studies, representing typical tariff schemes observed in recent CSP projects plus a spot market price scenario. The analysis has been carried out using an annual performance model and a standard dispatch optimization algorithm based on dynamic programming. The dispatch optimizer has been demonstrated to be a key requisite to maximize the annual revenues depending on the price scenario, harvesting the maximum potential out of the CSP plant. Forecasting uncertainty affects the revenue enhancement outcome of a dispatch optimizer depending on the error level and the price function. Results show that forecasting accuracy of direct solar irradiance (DNI) is important to make best use of an optimized dispatch but also that a higher number of calculation updates can partially compensate this uncertainty. Improvement in revenues can be significant depending on the price profile and the optimal operation strategy. Pathways to achieve better performance are presented by having more updates both by repeatedly generating new optimized trajectories but also more often updating weather forecasts. This study shows the importance of working on DNI weather forecasting for revenue enhancement as well as selecting weather services that can provide multiple updates a day and probabilistic forecast information.

  5. Validation of the Kp Geomagnetic Index Forecast at CCMC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frechette, B. P.; Mays, M. L.

    2017-12-01

    The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) Space Weather Research Center (SWRC) sub-team provides space weather services to NASA robotic mission operators and science campaigns and prototypes new models, forecasting techniques, and procedures. The Kp index is a measure of geomagnetic disturbances for space weather in the magnetosphere such as geomagnetic storms and substorms. In this study, we performed validation on the Newell et al. (2007) Kp prediction equation from December 2010 to July 2017. The purpose of this research is to understand the Kp forecast performance because it's critical for NASA missions to have confidence in the space weather forecast. This research was done by computing the Kp error for each forecast (average, minimum, maximum) and each synoptic period. Then to quantify forecast performance we computed the mean error, mean absolute error, root mean square error, multiplicative bias and correlation coefficient. A contingency table was made for each forecast and skill scores were computed. The results are compared to the perfect score and reference forecast skill score. In conclusion, the skill score and error results show that the minimum of the predicted Kp over each synoptic period from the Newell et al. (2007) Kp prediction equation performed better than the maximum or average of the prediction. However, persistence (reference forecast) outperformed all of the Kp forecasts (minimum, maximum, and average). Overall, the Newell Kp prediction still predicts within a range of 1, even though persistence beats it.

  6. Wind forecasting for grid code compliance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vanitha, V.; Kishore, S.R.N. [Amrita Vishwa Vidyapeetham Univ.. Dept. of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, Coimbatore (India)

    2012-07-01

    This work explores Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS) to forecast the average hourly wind speed. To determine the characteristics of ANFIS that best suited the target wind speed forecasting system, several ANFIS models were trained, tested and compared. Different types and number of inputs, training and checking sizes, type and number of membership functions and techniques to generate the initial (FIS) were analyzed. Comparisons with other forecasting methods were analyzed the models were given wind speed, direction and air pressure as inputs having the best forecasting accuracy. SCADA system is utilized to obtain the wind speed to the forecasting system in the host computer where ANFIS is present. The SCADA is located in the central room, the substation of the wind farm, or even at a remote off site point. The data obtained from the site is plotted at every instant and the predicted wind speed is displayed and also exported to the excel sheet which will be sent/e-mailed in the form of Graphs and excel sheets to the operator, State load dispatch centre (SLDC) and to the customer. (Author)

  7. In Vivo EPR Resolution Enhancement Using Techniques Known from Quantum Computing Spin Technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahimi, Robabeh; Halpern, Howard J; Takui, Takeji

    2017-01-01

    A crucial issue with in vivo biological/medical EPR is its low signal-to-noise ratio, giving rise to the low spectroscopic resolution. We propose quantum hyperpolarization techniques based on 'Heat Bath Algorithmic Cooling', allowing possible approaches for improving the resolution in magnetic resonance spectroscopy and imaging.

  8. Cognitive Mapping Techniques: Implications for Research in Engineering and Technology Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dixon, Raymond A.; Lammi, Matthew

    2014-01-01

    The primary goal of this paper is to present the theoretical basis and application of two types of cognitive maps, concept map and mind map, and explain how they can be used by educational researchers in engineering design research. Cognitive mapping techniques can be useful to researchers as they study students' problem solving strategies…

  9. Nuclear Technology. Course 26: Nondestructive Examination (NDE) Techniques I. Module 26-3, Hydrostatic Tests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pelton, Rick; Espy, John

    This third in a series of seven modules for a course titled Nondestructive Examination (NDE) Techniques I describes the principles and practices associated with hydrostatic testing. The module follows a typical format that includes the following sections: (1) introduction, (2) module prerequisites, (3) objectives, (4) notes to instructor/student,…

  10. Nuclear Technology. Course 26: Nondestructive Examination (NDE) Techniques I. Module 26-5, Fundamentals of Radiography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groseclose, Richard

    This fifth in a series of seven modules for a course titled Nondestructive Examination (NDE) Techniques I explains the radiographic process, from radiation source selection to equipment and specimen selection and arrangement, and film processing. The module follows a typical format that includes the following sections: (1) introduction, (2) module…

  11. Nuclear Technology. Course 26: Nondestructive Examination (NDE) Techniques I. Module 26-6, Radiography Inspection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pelton, Rick; Espy, John

    This sixth in a series of seven modules for a course titled Nondestructive Examination (NDE) Techniques I explains radiographic inspection as a means of nondestructively examining components, assemblies, structures, and fabricated piping. The module follows a typical format that includes the following sections: (1) introduction, (2) module…

  12. Deterministic and heuristic models of forecasting spare parts demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan S. Milojević

    2012-04-01

    of preventive maintenance, the number of assets on which the preventive maintenance procedures are performed and the technology of maintaining procedures are known, then the range and the quantity of spare parts needed to perform these procedures are also known. Heuristic forecasting is related to the experts. Armed forces use it for the assessment of combat situation, taking into account the opponent's and its own action tactics, forecasting enemy's intentions, analyzing the plan of operations, making decision for the plan of action, etc. In this case, relatively unregulated systems are those in which there is no data about the observed phenomenon and its development in the past. In addition to the fact that the above data does not exist, there is a need for spare parts demand forecasts for the purpose of decision making and inventory management. This primarily relates to the period of transition from an unregulated to a regulated system. In this case, forecasting has a limited range. No forecasting can be done for a longer period; the forecasting is reduced to the next relevant interval, i.e. to the interval relevant for the system. The application of another, relatively simple model which uses computer techniques has no particular limitations, but for that reason its results are time-limited; results are obtained only for the subsequent relevant period. The results of this model have a very limited range in planning. This model is applicable mainly in unregulated systems. It is suitable for so-called condition 'clearing'. After one or two closed cycles, a situation is brought to order, but then much more sensitive models are needed.

  13. Application of Flood Nomograph for Flood Forecasting in Urban Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eui Hoon Lee

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Imperviousness has increased due to urbanization, as has the frequency of extreme rainfall events by climate change. Various countermeasures, such as structural and nonstructural measures, are required to prepare for these effects. Flood forecasting is a representative nonstructural measure. Flood forecasting techniques have been developed for the prevention of repetitive flood damage in urban areas. It is difficult to apply some flood forecasting techniques using training processes because training needs to be applied at every usage. The other flood forecasting techniques that use rainfall data predicted by radar are not appropriate for small areas, such as single drainage basins. In this study, a new flood forecasting technique is suggested to reduce flood damage in urban areas. The flood nomograph consists of the first flooding nodes in rainfall runoff simulations with synthetic rainfall data at each duration. When selecting the first flooding node, the initial amount of synthetic rainfall is 1 mm, which increases in 1 mm increments until flooding occurs. The advantage of this flood forecasting technique is its simple application using real-time rainfall data. This technique can be used to prepare a preemptive response in the process of urban flood management.

  14. Space Weather Forecasting at IZMIRAN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaidash, S. P.; Belov, A. V.; Abunina, M. A.; Abunin, A. A.

    2017-12-01

    Since 1998, the Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radio Wave Propagation (IZMIRAN) has had an operating heliogeophysical service—the Center for Space Weather Forecasts. This center transfers the results of basic research in solar-terrestrial physics into daily forecasting of various space weather parameters for various lead times. The forecasts are promptly available to interested consumers. This article describes the center and the main types of forecasts it provides: solar and geomagnetic activity, magnetospheric electron fluxes, and probabilities of proton increases. The challenges associated with the forecasting of effects of coronal mass ejections and coronal holes are discussed. Verification data are provided for the center's forecasts.

  15. The development of human behaviour analysis techniques -The development of human factors technologies-

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Jung Woon; Cheon, Se Woo; Shu, Sang Moon; Park, Geun Ok; Lee, Yong Hee; Lee, Han Yeong; Park, Jae Chang; Lee, Eu Jin; Lee, Seung Hee

    1994-04-01

    This project has two major areas ; one is the development of an operator task simulation software and another is the development of human error analysis and application technologies. In this year project, the second year, for the development of an operator task simulation software, we studied the followings: - analysis of the characteristics of operator tasks, - development of operator task structures : Macro Structures, - development of an operator task simulation analyzes, - analysis of performance measures. And the followings for the development of human error analysis and application technologies : - analysis of human error mechanisms, - analysis of human error characteristics in tasks, - analysis of human error occurrence in Korean Nuclear Power Plants, - establishment of an experimental environment for human error data collection with Compact Nuclear Simulator, - basic design of a Multimedia-based Human Error Representing System. (Author)

  16. Three-dimensional visualization of ensemble weather forecasts – Part 1: The visualization tool Met.3D (version 1.0

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Rautenhaus

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available We present "Met.3D", a new open-source tool for the interactive three-dimensional (3-D visualization of numerical ensemble weather predictions. The tool has been developed to support weather forecasting during aircraft-based atmospheric field campaigns; however, it is applicable to further forecasting, research and teaching activities. Our work approaches challenging topics related to the visual analysis of numerical atmospheric model output – 3-D visualization, ensemble visualization and how both can be used in a meaningful way suited to weather forecasting. Met.3D builds a bridge from proven 2-D visualization methods commonly used in meteorology to 3-D visualization by combining both visualization types in a 3-D context. We address the issue of spatial perception in the 3-D view and present approaches to using the ensemble to allow the user to assess forecast uncertainty. Interactivity is key to our approach. Met.3D uses modern graphics technology to achieve interactive visualization on standard consumer hardware. The tool supports forecast data from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF and can operate directly on ECMWF hybrid sigma-pressure level grids. We describe the employed visualization algorithms, and analyse the impact of the ECMWF grid topology on computing 3-D ensemble statistical quantities. Our techniques are demonstrated with examples from the T-NAWDEX-Falcon 2012 (THORPEX – North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment campaign.

  17. Evaluation of Non-Nuclear Techniques for Well Logging: Technology Evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bond, Leonard J.; Denslow, Kayte M.; Griffin, Jeffrey W.; Dale, Gregory E.; Harris, Robert V.; Moran, Traci L.; Sheen, David M.; Schenkel, Thomas

    2010-11-01

    This report presents an initial review of the state-of-the-art nuclear and non-nuclear well logging methods and seeks to understand the technical and economic issues if AmBe, and potentially other isotope sources, are reduced or even eliminated in the oil-field services industry. Prior to considering alternative logging technologies, there is a definite need to open up discussions with industry regarding the feasibility and acceptability of source replacement. Industry views appear to range from those who see AmBe as vital and irreplaceable to those who believe that, with research and investment, it may be possible to transition to electronic neutron sources and employ combinations of non-nuclear technologies to acquire the desired petro-physical parameters. In one sense, the simple answer to the question as to whether petro-physical parameters can be sensed with technologies other than AmBe is probably "Yes". The challenges come when attention turns to record interpretation. The many decades of existing records form a very valuable proprietary resource, and the interpretation of subtle features contained in these records are of significant value to the oil-gas exploration community to correctly characterize a well. The demonstration of equivalence and correspondence/correlation between established and any new sensing modality, and correlations with historic records is critical to ensuring accurate data interpretation. Establishing the technical basis for such a demonstration represents a significant effort.

  18. Financial Analysts’ Forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stæhr, Simone

    in the decision making and the magnitude of these constraints does sometimes vary with personal traits. Therefore, to the extent that financial analysts are subjects to behavioral biases their outputs to the investors are likely to be biased by their interpretation of information. Because investors need accuracy....... The primary focus is on financial analysts in the task of conducting earnings forecasts while a secondary focus is on investors’ abilities to interpret and make use of these forecasts. Simply put, financial analysts can be seen as information intermediators receiving inputs to their analyses from firm...... management and providing outputs to the investors. Amongst various outputs from the analysts are forecasts of earnings. According to decision theories mostly from the literature in psychology all humans are affected by cognitive constraints to some degree. These constraints may lead to unintentional biases...

  19. Genetic engineering technology for the improvement of the sterile insect technique. Proceedings of a final research co-ordination meeting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-01-01

    Since the beginning of the joint FAO/IAEA programme on the research and development of insect pest control methodology, emphasis has been placed on the basic and applied aspects of implementing the sterile insect technique (SIT). Special emphasis has always been directed at the assembly of technological progress into workable systems that can be implemented in developing countries. The general intention is to solve problems associated with insect pests that have an adverse impact on production of food and fibre. For several insect species SIT has proven to be a powerful method for control. This includes the New World screwworm fly (Cochliomyia hominivorox), the Mediterranean fruit fly (Ceratitis capitata), the melon fly (Bactrocera cucurbitae), the Queensland fruit fly (Bactrocera tryoni) and one tsetse fly species (Glossina austeni). Improvements of the SIT are possible, especially through the use of molecular techniques. The final report of the Co-ordinated Research Programme on ''Genetic Engineering Technology for the Improvement of the Sterile Insect Technique'' highlights the progress made towards the development of transformation systems for non-drosophilid insects and the research aimed at the identification and engineering of potential target genes or traits

  20. Large-scale nanofabrication of periodic nanostructures using nanosphere-related techniques for green technology applications (Conference Presentation)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yen, Chen-Chung; Wu, Jyun-De; Chien, Yi-Hsin; Wang, Chang-Han; Liu, Chi-Ching; Ku, Chen-Ta; Chen, Yen-Jon; Chou, Meng-Cheng; Chang, Yun-Chorng

    2016-09-01

    Nanotechnology has been developed for decades and many interesting optical properties have been demonstrated. However, the major hurdle for the further development of nanotechnology depends on finding economic ways to fabricate such nanostructures in large-scale. Here, we demonstrate how to achieve low-cost fabrication using nanosphere-related techniques, such as Nanosphere Lithography (NSL) and Nanospherical-Lens Lithography (NLL). NSL is a low-cost nano-fabrication technique that has the ability to fabricate nano-triangle arrays that cover a very large area. NLL is a very similar technique that uses polystyrene nanospheres to focus the incoming ultraviolet light and exposure the underlying photoresist (PR) layer. PR hole arrays form after developing. Metal nanodisk arrays can be fabricated following metal evaporation and lifting-off processes. Nanodisk or nano-ellipse arrays with various sizes and aspect ratios are routinely fabricated in our research group. We also demonstrate we can fabricate more complicated nanostructures, such as nanodisk oligomers, by combining several other key technologies such as angled exposure and deposition, we can modify these methods to obtain various metallic nanostructures. The metallic structures are of high fidelity and in large scale. The metallic nanostructures can be transformed into semiconductor nanostructures and be used in several green technology applications.