WorldWideScience

Sample records for systemic risks paradoxes

  1. Five paradox on energy system management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frisch, J.R.

    1995-01-01

    Five paradox are detailed on energy management: internationalization of energy questions but always regional management is present, short term problems must be solved but without forgetting long term problems in environment, the third paradox is : we have time but we are in a hurry, we have reserves but ten, twenty or thirty years are necessary to adapt our energy system; the fourth paradox is : we cannot manage energy by managing only energy, for example : finances system development and environment importance. The last and fifth paradox is : the market, yes, but state too, as regulative force

  2. Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen paradox and measurement of quantum system

    OpenAIRE

    Kladko, Konstantin

    1999-01-01

    Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen (EPR) paradox is considered in a relation to a measurement of an arbitrary quantum system . It is shown that the EPR paradox always appears in a gedanken experiment with two successively joined measuring devices.

  3. The paradox of transmission system value

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haddad, S.Z.; Feldman, R.D.; Charnetzki, P.

    1995-01-01

    The central importance of utility strategic planning with respect to transmission systems has developed as a result of the passage of the Energy Policy Act and the rapid emergence of the era of open grid access. As a consequence, utilities have had to redefine transmission as being more than a cost center managed with reliability as the principal focus and regulated on a rate of return basis. Transmission must now be managed with a view to protection of customers, where possible, and to revenue maximization, both through pricing strategy and through operations. This shift has been compounded by the pressures being thrust upon utilities by regulators or being fomented by competitors to unbundle transmission and distribution from generation. This paper explores how the value of the transmission system can be viewed from the vantage points of different organizations (utilities, regulators, customers, independent generators, etc.). The paper addresses the uncertain and apparently paradoxical nature of transmission system value as it will be impacted by the possible alternative future structures of the electric power industry. Lastly, this paper suggests the strategic possibilities for utilities that this uncertainty presents

  4. Coping with paradoxes of risk communication: Observations and suggestions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, B.B.

    1993-01-01

    The maturation of the field of risk communication has resulted in several manuals, a National Research Council review, a Society for Risk Analysis subgroup, and critics. Critics Pieter-Jan Stalen and Rob Coppock, and Harry Otway and Brian Wynne, have pointed out that much risk communication is impractical or paradoxical. In this letter, the author supports many of the criticisms of these critics, but also discusses errors and omissions in their viewpoints that he feels will inhibit progress in effective risk communication. Topics discussed are motivations for risk communication, the practicality of advice, the audience for risk communication, credibility, and whose interests are best served by risk communication. The purpose of this essay is therefore to spur further debate on the issue of risk communication. 13 refs

  5. Adolescent Suicide Risk Today: A Paradox.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lester, David

    1998-01-01

    A review of international statistics indicates that youth suicide rates are not increasing in all nations. Furthermore, it is suggested that the quality of life in nations is improving and that this improvement itself may increase the risk of suicide, especially in youth with narcissistic personality traits and antisocial personality disorder…

  6. Design principles of paradoxical signaling in the immune system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hart, Yuval

    A widespread feature of cell-cell signaling systems is paradoxical pleiotropy: the same secreted signaling molecule can induce opposite effects in the responding cells. For example, the cytokine IL-2 can promote proliferation and death of T-cells. The role of such paradoxical signaling remains unclear. We suggest that this mechanism provides homeostatic concentration of cells, independent of initial conditions. The crux of the paradoxical mechanism is the combination of a positive and a negative feedback loops creating two stable states - an OFF state and an ON state. Experimentally, we found that CD4 + cells grown in culture with a 30-fold difference in initial concentrations reached a homeostatic concentration nearly independent of initial cell levels (ON-state). Below an initial threshold, cell density decayed to extinction (OFF-state). Mathematical modeling explained the observed cell and cytokine dynamics and predicted conditions that shifted cell fate from homeostasis to the OFF-state. We suggest that paradoxical signaling provides cell circuits with specific dynamical features that are robust to environmental perturbations.

  7. The paradox of diabetes, obesity and cardiovascular risk

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2014-06-03

    Jun 3, 2014 ... Weight loss to reduce cardiovascular risk is encouraged in both healthy overweight individuals and those at high cardiovascular risk ... cardiovascular risk factors, such as blood pressure, lipid profile and blood glucose control, but also with a reduction ..... women, normal weight obesity (body fat >3 3.3% vs.

  8. The Schroedinger's paradox and the tranformation of quantum systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bitsakis, E.I.

    1980-01-01

    The Schroedinger's paradox is analysed, as an illustration of certain weaknesses of the Copenhagen's interpretation of quantum mechanics and of the limits of the quantum-mechanical description of phenomena. A realistic approach of the paradox indicates the necessity of a theory that would permit not only the calculation of probabilities, but also the description of physical processes, as taking place in space and time

  9. Exploring the isopycnal mixing and helium-heat paradoxes in a suite of Earth System Models

    OpenAIRE

    A. Gnanadesikan; R. Abernathey; M.-A. Pradal

    2014-01-01

    This paper uses a suite of Earth system models which simulate the distribution of He isotopes and radiocarbon to examine two paradoxes in Earth science, each of which results from an inconsistency between theoretically motivated global energy balances and direct observations. The helium–heat paradox refers to the fact that helium emissions to the deep ocean are far lower than would be expected given the rate of geothermal heating, since both are thought to b...

  10. Risk management strategies for the radon paradox in radiation protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poffijn, A.; Eggermont, G.X.; Van Deynse, A.

    1996-01-01

    Indoor radon is recognised as being the most important radiation burden for the general public. In Belgium, as in many other countries, exposure levels giving rise to yearly risks of more than 10 -2 have been found. This latter value is normally considered unacceptable for the public. Moreover, an important fraction of the population lives in houses with radon levels of more than 400 Bq.m -3 , representing a risk level of 10 -3 per year or more. A level of this order is the limit for authorised and regulated activities at work. Prevention and intervention opportunities exist for these situations. The dose reduction opportunities are limited, but higher than the total collective dose in all nuclear activities. The analysis of radiation protection approaches, communication and decision-making for radon, compared to nuclear industrial activities shows incoherence at different levels. As a first attempt to develop a rational and coherent approach, cost-benefit analysis was applied to radon. Four optimisation scenarios were developed: three remediation and one about prevention. Referring to the α values applied by radiation protection authorities in France, Sweden and the Netherlands, the different scenarios are found to be highly justified. (author)

  11. Parrondo’s paradox for chaos control and anticontrol of fractional-order systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Danca, Marius-F; Tang, Wallace K S

    2016-01-01

    We present the generalized forms of Parrondo’s paradox existing in fractional-order nonlinear systems. The generalization is implemented by applying a parameter switching (PS) algorithm to the corresponding initial value problems associated with the fractional-order nonlinear systems. The PS algorithm switches a system parameter within a specific set of N ≥ 2 values when solving the system with some numerical integration method. It is proven that any attractor of the concerned system can be approximated numerically. By replacing the words “winning” and “loosing” in the classical Parrondo’s paradox with “order” and “chaos', respectively, the PS algorithm leads to the generalized Parrondo’s paradox: chaos 1 + chaos 2 + ··· + chaos N = order and order 1 + order 2 + ··· + order N = chaos. Finally, the concept is well demonstrated with the results based on the fractional-order Chen system. (paper)

  12. Paradoxical risk perception and behaviours related to Avian Flu outbreak and education campaign, Laos.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barennes, Hubert; Harimanana, Aina N; Lorvongseng, Somchay; Ongkhammy, Somvay; Chu, Cindy

    2010-10-12

    In Laos, small backyard poultry systems predominate (90%). The first lethal human cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) occurred in 2007. Few studies have addressed the impact of outbreaks and education campaigns on a smallholder producer system. We evaluated awareness and behaviours related to educational campaigns and the 2007 HPAI outbreaks. During a national 2-stage cross-sectional randomised survey we interviewed 1098 households using a pre-tested questionnaire in five provinces representative of the Southern to Northern strata of Laos. We used multivariate analysis (Stata, version 8; Stata Corporation, College Station, TX, USA) to analyse factors affecting recollection of HPAI educational messages, awareness of HPAI, and behaviour change. Of the 1098 participants, 303 (27.6%) received training on HPAI. The level of awareness was similar to that in 2006. The urban population considered risk to be decreased, yet unsafe behaviours persisted or increased. This contrasted with an increase in awareness and safe behaviour practices in rural areas. Reported behaviour changes in rural areas included higher rates of cessation of poultry consumption and dead poultry burial when compared to 2006. No participants reported poultry deaths to the authorities. Overall, 70% could recall an educational message but the content and accuracy differed widely depending on training exposure. Washing hands and other hygiene advice, messages given during the HPAI educational campaign, were not recalled. Trained persons were able to recall only one message while untrained participants recalled a broader range of messages. Factors associated with an awareness of a threat of AI in Laos were: having received HPAI training, literacy level, access to TV, recent information, living in rural areas. We report a paradoxical relationship between unsafe behaviours and risk perception in urban areas, as well as exposure to HPAI training and message misinterpretation. Future educational

  13. Paradoxical risk perception and behaviours related to Avian Flu outbreak and education campaign, Laos

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorvongseng Somchay

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In Laos, small backyard poultry systems predominate (90%. The first lethal human cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI occurred in 2007. Few studies have addressed the impact of outbreaks and education campaigns on a smallholder producer system. We evaluated awareness and behaviours related to educational campaigns and the 2007 HPAI outbreaks. Methods During a national 2-stage cross-sectional randomised survey we interviewed 1098 households using a pre-tested questionnaire in five provinces representative of the Southern to Northern strata of Laos. We used multivariate analysis (Stata, version 8; Stata Corporation, College Station, TX, USA to analyse factors affecting recollection of HPAI educational messages, awareness of HPAI, and behaviour change. Results Of the 1098 participants, 303 (27.6% received training on HPAI. The level of awareness was similar to that in 2006. The urban population considered risk to be decreased, yet unsafe behaviours persisted or increased. This contrasted with an increase in awareness and safe behaviour practices in rural areas. Reported behaviour changes in rural areas included higher rates of cessation of poultry consumption and dead poultry burial when compared to 2006. No participants reported poultry deaths to the authorities. Overall, 70% could recall an educational message but the content and accuracy differed widely depending on training exposure. Washing hands and other hygiene advice, messages given during the HPAI educational campaign, were not recalled. Trained persons were able to recall only one message while untrained participants recalled a broader range of messages. Factors associated with an awareness of a threat of AI in Laos were: having received HPAI training, literacy level, access to TV, recent information, living in rural areas. Conclusion We report a paradoxical relationship between unsafe behaviours and risk perception in urban areas, as well as exposure to

  14. Greenberger-Horne-Zeilinger paradoxes for N N-dimensional systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaszlikowski, Dagomir; Zukowski, Marek

    2002-01-01

    We show the series of Greenberger-Horne-Zeilinger-like paradoxes for N maximally entangled N-dimensional quantum systems. The hypothesis of local hidden variables leads to a prediction of perfect correlations that do not appear for the quantum systems

  15. Addressing the 21st Century Paradox: Integrating Entrepreneurship in the Computer Information Systems Curriculum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, Guido; Babb, Jeffry

    2015-01-01

    The Computer Information Systems (CIS) discipline faces an identity crisis: although demand for CIS graduates is growing, student enrollment is either in decline, or is at least soft or flat in many cases. This has been referred to as the 21st century paradox. As one solution to this problem, we propose to integrate entrepreneurship in the CIS…

  16. BEWARE, PERSON-YEARS! EXPERIENCE OF SIMPSON PARADOX OBSERVATION IN EPIDEMIOLOGICAL RISK EXAMINATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.F. Obesnyuk

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available It is shown, on the examples of concrete publications, that "person-years" category application in multi-factor health risks analysis can lead to false conclusions in the process of observation data grouping due to Simpson paradox influence when examinations are performed via demographic or epidemiological techniques. The paradox occurs when heterogeneous strata are being compared. "Person-years" category first appeared in the middle of the 17th century, long before first applications of mathematical tools in statistics and probability theory; it does not fully correspond to up-to-date requirements of epidemiological research. Risk theory should change 17–18 century paradigm as it focuses on conditional probability of unwanted events occurrence and not on a principle of comparing their intensities. It is particularly vital in case when we deal with determining possible damage to health caused by effects exerted by such factors and under such conditions when individual damage cannot be measured objectively but when it is possible to quantitatively determine regularities of changes in stochastic ability to survive for a large group of people or remote consequences occurrence for it. We prove it is necessary to create specialized mathematical tools and hybrid software able to solve a risks assessment task as an inverse one. Mathematical tools of large contingency tables could serve as prototypes of such tools; we can also use multi-factor logistical and Poisson regressions which are usually applied in countable events analysis. We should note that it is also necessary to eliminate a number of methodological drawbacks which are attributable to the said tools.

  17. The Impact of the FOMC's Monetary Policy Actions on the growth of Credit Risk: the Monetary Policy - Liquidity Paradox

    OpenAIRE

    Kwamie Dunbar

    2008-01-01

    Credit risk is influenced by interest rates and market liquidity. This paper examines the direct and indirect impacts of unexpected monetary policy shifts on the growth of corporate credit risk, with the aim of quantifying the size and direction of the response. The results surprisingly indicate that monetary policy and liquidity impulses move counter to each other in their effects on credit risk ("The monetary policy-liquidity paradox"). The analysis indicates that while contractionary monet...

  18. The risk of arrhythmias following coronary artery bypass surgery: do smokers have a paradox effect?

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Al-Sarraf, Nael

    2010-11-01

    Smoking is reported to increase the risk of arrhythmias. However, there are limited data on its effects on arrhythmias following coronary artery bypass graft (CABG). This is a retrospective review of a prospective database of all CABG patients over an eight-year period. Our cohort (n=2813) was subdivided into: current (n=1169), former (n=837), and non-smokers (n=807). Predictors of arrhythmias following CABG in relation to smoking status were analysed. Atrial arrhythmias occurred in 942 patients (33%). Ventricular arrhythmias occurred in 48 patients (2%) and high-grade atrioventricular block occurred in five patients (0.2%). Arrhythmias were lower in current smokers than former and non-smokers (29% vs. 40% vs. 39%, respectively P<0.001). Logistic regression analysis showed 30% arrhythmia risk reduction in smokers compared to non-smokers [odds ratio (OR) 0.7, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.5-0.8] and this effect persisted after accounting for potential confounders while former smokers had the same risk as non-smokers (OR 1.04, CI 0.9-1.3). There were no significant differences in mortality. Smokers are less prone to develop arrhythmias following CABG. This paradox effect is lost in former smokers. This effect is possibly due to a lower state of hyper adrenergic stimulation observed in smokers than non-smokers following the stress of surgery.

  19. Proof of concept in cardiovascular risk: the paradoxical findings in blood pressure and lipid abnormalities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fuchs FD

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Flavio Danni Fuchs, Sandra Costa Fuchs, Leila Beltrami Moreira, Miguel GusDivision of Cardiology and Postgraduate Studies Program in Cardiology, Hospital de Clinicas de Porto Alegre, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, BrazilAbstract: High blood pressure and lipoprotein abnormalities were identified by many cohort studies as the major risk factors for cardiovascular disease. Laboratory experiments apparently confirmed their role in the causation of atherosclerosis, but a proof of concept requires the corroboration by clinical trials in human beings. The size of benefit in clinical trials regarding the control of high blood pressure was within the estimations of risk provided by cohort studies. For a reduction of 10 mmHg in systolic blood pressure or 5 mmHg in diastolic blood pressure, the relative risk reduction of coronary heart disease was 22% (95% confidence interval 27%–17% in a meta-analysis of clinical trials, close to the estimation of reduction of 25% (95% confidence interval 23%–27% provided by a meta-analysis of cohort studies. The corresponding values for stroke were 41% (95% confidence interval 33%–48% in clinical trials compared to a cohort risk prediction of 36% (95% confidence interval 34%–38%. This efficacy was shared by all blood pressure-lowering drugs. The same figure has not paradoxically happened with drugs that act over abnormalities of cholesterol and lipoproteins. Only statins, which have other beneficial actions as well, have consistently lowered the incidence of cardiovascular diseases, an efficacy that was not reproduced by older and newer quite potent lipid drugs. The adverse effects of these drugs may nullify their beneficial effects over lipoproteins and abnormalities of lipoproteins may only be surrogate markers of the underlying real risks.Keywords: proof of concept, hypertension, lipoproteins, clinical trials

  20. Renewable Electric Plant Information System user interface manual: Paradox 7 Runtime for Windows

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-11-01

    The Renewable Electric Plant Information System (REPiS) is a comprehensive database with detailed information on grid-connected renewable electric plants in the US. The current version, REPiS3 beta, was developed in Paradox for Windows. The user interface (UI) was developed to facilitate easy access to information in the database, without the need to have, or know how to use, Paradox for Windows. The UI is designed to provide quick responses to commonly requested sorts of the database. A quick perusal of this manual will familiarize one with the functions of the UI and will make use of the system easier. There are six parts to this manual: (1) Quick Start: Instructions for Users Familiar with Database Applications; (2) Getting Started: The Installation Process; (3) Choosing the Appropriate Report; (4) Using the User Interface; (5) Troubleshooting; (6) Appendices A and B.

  1. Geology and total petroleum systems of the Paradox Basin, Utah, Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whidden, Katherine J.; Lillis, Paul G.; Anna, Lawrence O.; Pearson, Krystal M.; Dubiel, Russell F.

    2014-01-01

    The geological model for the development of the Total Petroleum Systems (TPSs) within the Paradox Basin formed the foundation of the recent U.S. Geological Survey assessment of undiscovered, technically recoverable resources in the basin. Five TPSs were defined, of which three have known production and two are hypothetical. These TPSs are based on geologic elements of the basin and the potential development of Precambrian, Devonian, Pennsylvanian, Permian-Mississippian, and Cretaceous source rock intervals.

  2. EXCESSIVE WEIGHT – MUSCLE DEPLETION PARADOX AND CARDIOVASCULAR RISK FACTORS IN OUTPATIENTS WITH INFLAMMATORY BOWEL DISEASE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Izabel Siqueira de ANDRADE

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Background Evidence suggests a nutritional transition process in patients with inflammatory bowel disease. Obesity, which was once an uncommon occurrence in such patients, has grown in this population at the same prevalence rate as that found in the general population, bringing with it an increased risk of cardiovascular disease. Objective The aim of the present study was to determine the nutritional status and occurrence of cardiovascular risk factors in patients with inflammatory bowel disease. Methods A case-series cross-sectional study was conducted involving male and female adult outpatients with inflammatory bowel disease. Data were collected on demographic, socioeconomic, clinical and anthropometric variables as well as the following cardiovascular risk factors: sedentary lifestyle, excess weight, abdominal obesity, medications in use, comorbidities, alcohol intake and smoking habits. The significance level for all statistical tests was set to 5% (P< 0.05. Results The sample comprised 80 patients with inflammatory bowel disease, 56 of whom (70.0% had ulcerative colitis and 24 of whom (30.0% had Crohn's disease. Mean age was 40.3±11 years and the female genre accounted for 66.2% of the sample. High frequencies of excess weight (48.8% and abdominal obesity (52.5% were identified based on the body mass index and waist circumference, respectively, in both groups, especially among those with ulcerative colitis. Muscle depletion was found in 52.5% of the sample based on arm muscle circumference, with greater depletion among patients with Crohn’s disease (P=0.008. The most frequent risk factors for cardiovascular disease were a sedentary lifestyle (83.8%, abdominal obesity (52.5% and excess weight (48.8%. Conclusion The results of the complete anthropometric evaluation draw one’s attention to a nutritional paradox, with high frequencies of both - muscle depletion, as well as excess weight and abdominal obesity.

  3. Exploring the isopycnal mixing and helium-heat paradoxes in a suite of Earth system models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gnanadesikan, A.; Pradal, M.-A.; Abernathey, R.

    2015-07-01

    This paper uses a suite of Earth system models which simulate the distribution of He isotopes and radiocarbon to examine two paradoxes in Earth science, each of which results from an inconsistency between theoretically motivated global energy balances and direct observations. The helium-heat paradox refers to the fact that helium emissions to the deep ocean are far lower than would be expected given the rate of geothermal heating, since both are thought to be the result of radioactive decay in Earth's interior. The isopycnal mixing paradox comes from the fact that many theoretical parameterizations of the isopycnal mixing coefficient ARedi that link it to baroclinic instability project it to be small (of order a few hundred m2 s-1) in the ocean interior away from boundary currents. However, direct observations using tracers and floats (largely in the upper ocean) suggest that values of this coefficient are an order of magnitude higher. Helium isotopes equilibrate rapidly with the atmosphere and thus exhibit large gradients along isopycnals while radiocarbon equilibrates slowly and thus exhibits smaller gradients along isopycnals. Thus it might be thought that resolving the isopycnal mixing paradox in favor of the higher observational estimates of ARedi might also solve the helium paradox, by increasing the transport of mantle helium to the surface more than it would radiocarbon. In this paper we show that this is not the case. In a suite of models with different spatially constant and spatially varying values of ARedi the distribution of radiocarbon and helium isotopes is sensitive to the value of ARedi. However, away from strong helium sources in the southeastern Pacific, the relationship between the two is not sensitive, indicating that large-scale advection is the limiting process for removing helium and radiocarbon from the deep ocean. The helium isotopes, in turn, suggest a higher value of ARedi below the thermocline than is seen in theoretical

  4. The paradoxical injunctions of the French academic communication system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne-Hélène LE CORNEC UBERTINI

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The current evils of the scholars and researchers are the consequence of a dysfunctional communication system. The incompatibility between the spirit of the laws and its mode of application illustrate a worrying retreat of the democratic principles. The university is the mirror of the political system.

  5. Melanoma risk perception and prevention behavior among African-Americans: the minority melanoma paradox

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goldenberg A

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Alina Goldenberg,1 Igor Vujic,2,3 Martina Sanlorenzo,2,4 Susana Ortiz-Urda2 1Department of Internal Medicine/Dermatology, University of California, San Diego, 2Mt Zion Cancer Research Center, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA; 3Department of Dermatology, The Rudolfstiftung Hospital, Academic Teaching Hospital, Medical University Vienna, Vienna, Austria; 4Section of Dermatology, Department of Medical Sciences, University of Turin, Turin, Italy Introduction: Melanoma is the most deadly type of skin cancer with 75% of all skin cancer deaths within the US attributed to it. Risk factors for melanoma include ultraviolet exposure, genetic predisposition, and phenotypic characteristics (eg, fair skin and blond hair. Whites have a 27-fold higher incidence of melanoma than African-Americans (AA, but the 5-year survival is 17.8% lower for AA than Whites. It is reported continuously that AA have more advanced melanomas at diagnosis, and overall lower survival rates. This minority melanoma paradox is not well understood or studied. Objective: To explore further, the possible explanations for the difference in melanoma severity and survival in AA within the US. Methods: Qualitative review of the literature. Results: Lack of minority-targeted public education campaigns, low self-risk perception, low self-skin examinations, intrinsic virulence, vitamin D differences, and physician mistrust may play a role in the melanoma survival disparity among AA. Conclusion: Increases in public awareness of melanoma risk among AA through physician and media-guided education, higher index of suspicion among individuals and physicians, and policy changes can help to improve early detection and close the melanoma disparity gap in the future. Keywords: acral, advanced, African-American, disparity, melanoma, survival

  6. The anonymity paradox in patient engagement: reputation, risk and web-based public feedback.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Speed, Ewen; Davison, Charlie; Gunnell, Caroline

    2016-06-01

    The UK National Health Service (NHS) has long espoused patient and public engagement. Recent years have seen increasing use of internet-based methods of collecting feedback about patient experience and public and staff views about NHS services and priorities. Often hailed as a means of facilitating participative democratic patient engagement, these processes raise a number of complex issues. A key aspect of it is the opportunity for comment to be made anonymously. Our research reveals an anonymity paradox whereby patients clearly demonstrate a perception that anonymity is a prerequisite for effective use of these feedback processes, whereas professionals demonstrate a perception that patient anonymity is a barrier to effective use. The risks of anonymity are constructed very differently by patients and professionals. Patient concerns around anonymity were not motivated by a general concern about a loss of privacy, but more that a positive identification might compromise future care. For professionals, concerns were voiced more around risks of reputational damage for specific practitioners or practices (in that anyone could say anything) and also that this anonymous feedback was available publicly and that it might go against the medical opinion of the professional. These concerns pointed to important differences in perceptions of patient and professional vulnerability. In the qualitative analysis that follows the key finding was that while anonymity makes service users feel less vulnerable, it can have the opposite effect on managers and clinical staff. This raises important implications for the use and utility of internet-based methods of collecting patient feedback. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  7. How to Avoid Fragility of Financial Systems: Lessons from the Financial Crisis and St. Petersburg Paradox

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takayasu, Hideki

    Firstly, I point out that the financial crisis occurred in 2008 has many analogous points with a physical phenomenon of brittle fracture in the sense that it is a highly irreversible phenomenon caused by concentration of stress to the weakest point. Then, I discuss distribution of gain-loss of continuous transactions of options which can be regarded as a source of stress among financial companies. The historical problem of Saint Petersburg paradox is reviewed and it is argued that the paradox is solved by decomposing the process into a combination of a fair gamble and an accompanied financial option. By generalizing this fair gamble it is shown that the gain-loss distribution in this problem is closely related to the distribution of gain-loss of business firms in the real world. Finally, I pose a serious question to the ordinary way of financing money to business firms with compound interest rates. Instead we introduce a new way of financing business firms without applying prefixed interest rates, in which financial stress is shared by all involved firms. This method is expected to reduce the risk of both financial firms and business firms, and is applicable even in the non-growing society.

  8. The Sisyphus paradox of cutting red tape and managing public risk
    The Dutch case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wim J.M. Voermans

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Cutting red tape has been topical in Dutch debates on legislative politics ever since the beginning of the 1990s, but has gained impetus – since 2003 – in the political arena as the combined consequence of the regulatory reform policies of the Balkenende II-IV administrations (2003-2010 to innovate the Dutch economy and efforts to meet the European Lisbon Agenda. The general aim of these policies is to simplify the regulatory environment by cutting red tape and making law more practicable, thus fostering economic growth. The new elements of these policies – compared to the recent pre-2000 past - are the focus on a precise definition of the regulatory administrative burden, the detailed quantification thereof, and the prefixed reduction targets. With these elements the Dutch reform policy aligns with – OECD-inspired – initiatives throughout Europe aiming at the reduction of red tape caused by legislation. Arguably these policies have met with some success: a 20% red tape reduction was achieved by the end of 2007. Encouraged by this success the present Balkenende administration has raised the stakes by fixing a new, additional, reduction target of 25%. This contribution will focus on critical success factors for the Dutch reform policies and the overall effects of these policies for legislation, its implementation and enforcement. It does so from a predominantly legal point of view. The article questions how Dutch success rates of better regulation are affected by tough political choices (is better regulation instrumental to tough political choices, or are the best results yielded by avoiding political choices?. A second critical success factor discussed is the question whether the law of diminishing returns will apply to the most recent episode of Dutch reform policies The contribution concludes with the hypothesis of the Sisyphus paradox, according to which risk management (Better Regulation Commission 2006 and legal protection, on the

  9. The impact of obesity on risk factors and prevalence and prognosis of coronary heart disease-the obesity paradox.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Schutter, Alban; Lavie, Carl J; Milani, Richard V

    2014-01-01

    Obesity is associated with a host of cardiovascular risk factors and its prevalence is rising rapidly. Despite strong evidence that obesity predisposes to the development and progression of coronary heart disease (CHD), numerous studies have shown an inverse relationship between various measures of obesity (most commonly body mass index) and outcomes in established CHD. In this article we review the evidence surrounding the ≪obesity paradox≫ in the secondary care of CHD patients and the CHD presentations where a paradox has been found. Finally we discuss the impact of cardiorespiratory fitness and a number of mechanisms which may offer potential explanations for this puzzling phenomenon. © 2014.

  10. Williams' paradox and the role of phenotypic plasticity in sexual systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonard, Janet L

    2013-10-01

    As George Williams pointed out in 1975, although evolutionary explanations, based on selection acting on individuals, have been developed for the advantages of simultaneous hermaphroditism, sequential hermaphroditism and gonochorism, none of these evolutionary explanations adequately explains the current distribution of these sexual systems within the Metazoa (Williams' Paradox). As Williams further pointed out, the current distribution of sexual systems is explained largely by phylogeny. Since 1975, we have made a great deal of empirical and theoretical progress in understanding sexual systems. However, we still lack a theory that explains the current distribution of sexual systems in animals and we do not understand the evolutionary transitions between hermaphroditism and gonochorism. Empirical data, collected over the past 40 years, demonstrate that gender may have more phenotypic plasticity than was previously realized. We know that not only sequential hermaphrodites, but also simultaneous hermaphrodites have phenotypic plasticity that alters sex allocation in response to social and environmental conditions. A focus on phenotypic plasticity suggests that one sees a continuum in animals between genetically determined gonochorism on the one hand and simultaneous hermaphroditism on the other, with various types of sequential hermaphroditism and environmental sex determination as points along the spectrum. Here I suggest that perhaps the reason we have been unable to resolve Williams' Paradox is because the problem was not correctly framed. First, because, for example, simultaneous hermaphroditism provides reproductive assurance or dioecy ensures outcrossing does not mean that there are no other evolutionary paths that can provide adaptive responses to those selective pressures. Second, perhaps the question we need to ask is: What selective forces favor increased versus reduced phenotypic plasticity in gender expression? It is time to begin to look at the question

  11. Obesity paradox and risk of sudden death in heart failure results from the MUerte Subita en Insuficiencia cardiaca (MUSIC) study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gastelurrutia, Paloma; Pascual-Figal, Domingo; Vazquez, Rafael; Cygankiewicz, Iwona; Shamagian, Lillian Grigorian; Puig, Teresa; Ferrero, Andreu; Cinca, Juan; de Luna, Antoni Bayes; Bayes-Genis, Antoni

    2011-01-01

    among patients with heart failure (HF), body mass index (BMI) has been inversely associated with mortality, giving rise to the so-called obesity paradox. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between BMI and two modes of cardiac death: pump failure death and sudden death. nine hundred seventy-nine patients with mild to moderate chronic symptomatic HF from the MUSIC (MUerte Subita en Insuficiencia Cardiaca) Study, a prospective, multicenter, and longitudinal study designed to assess risk predictors of cardiac mortality, were followed up during a median of 44 months. Independent predictors of death were identified by a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model. higher BMI emerged as an independent predictor of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.94, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.91-0.97, P = .0003) and pump failure death (HR = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.88-0.98, P = .004). Sudden death accounted for 45% of deaths in obese patients, 53% in overweight patients, and 37% in lean patients. No significant relationship between BMI and sudden death was observed (HR = 0.97, 95% CI = 0.92-1.02, P = .28). The only independent predictors of sudden death were prior history of myocardial infarction (HR = 1.89, 95% CI = 1.23-2.90, P = .004), hypertension (HR = 1.66, 95% CI = 1.05-2.63, P = .03), left ventricular ejection fraction (HR = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.79-0.96, P = .006), and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (HR = 1.01, 95% CI = 1.00-1.02, P = .048). the obesity paradox in HF affects all-cause mortality and pump failure death but not sudden death. The risk of dying suddenly was similar across BMI categories in this cohort of ambulatory patients with HF.

  12. Radwaste paradox

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carter, L.J.

    1983-01-01

    The Paradox Basin is one of the places where the US Department of Energy is looking for a site for a deep-mined repository for high-level radioactive waste. This seems appropriately symbolic because the geologic disposal problem has increasingly taken on the aspect of a political and technical conundrum, replete with real or seeming contradictions and paradoxes. A central paradox is that, while the concept of sequestering long-lived wastes in mined repositories is attractive intuitively, the very efforts made to confirm the suitability of particular rock formations give rise to further uncertainties. The new law contemplates repository construction will start as early as 1989. Experience so far at the several sites suggests that the technical and political questions tend to proliferate rather than diminish as more becomes known about the geology and hydrology. The following sites were discussed: the Hanford basalt; the Nevada tuff; and salt beds and salt domes (Utah, Texas, Mississippi). (DP)

  13. Contradictions and paradoxes on territorial management of public parks system in Salvador, Bahia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angelo Serpa

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available This article aims at making public parks system municipal strategies and management instruments clear in Salvador, state of Bahia/Brazil, from the analysis of the city Directing Plan of Urban and Environment Development (PDDUA, pointing out the possible contradiction and paradox between the late politics of urban re-qualification and the PDDUA determinations and directives. It analyses the spatial vegetal cover distribution and its “ecologic value” in the municipal territory and the classification of conservation unities in the city as well as the urban re-qualification politics undertaken by the municipal administrations in the two last decades. The analyses of the presented examples show that, in despite of the Directing Plan’s approach of public parks both on environmental way than in the recreation one.The last way as the directive of urban re-qualification politics of these spaces in the city prevails. At the end of the article, it is emphasized the central importance of the physical and symbolic access question and of the spatial distribution of nature public spaces for one deep academic discussion looking for other basis for the municipal territory public parks management from one critical analyses of the ideas of sustainable development and sustainability.

  14. Analyse Risk-Return Paradox: Evidence from Electricity Sector of Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Naqi Shah, Sadia; Qayyum, Abdul

    2016-01-01

    This study analyse risk return relationship of the electricity companies of Pakistan by using the log return series of these electricity companies. Financial time series data have the property of autoregressive heteroscedasticity so move towards the GARCH family test. As the study want to analyse the risk return relationship so, GARCH-M Model of Engel et al (1987) is used, who empirically found relationship between risk and return. Results show that risk return in case of Pakistan electricity...

  15. Participation of the cholinergic system in the ethanol-induced suppression of paradoxical sleep in rats

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.A. Papale

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Sleep disturbance is among the many consequences of ethanol abuse in both humans and rodents. Ethanol consumption can reduce REM or paradoxical sleep (PS in humans and rats, respectively. The first aim of this study was to develop an animal model of ethanol-induced PS suppression. This model administered intragastrically (by gavage to male Wistar rats (3 months old, 200-250 g 0.5 to 3.5 g/kg ethanol. The 3.5 g/kg dose of ethanol suppressed the PS stage compared with the vehicle group (distilled water during the first 2-h interval (0-2 h; 1.3 vs 10.2; P < 0.001. The second aim of this study was to investigate the mechanisms by which ethanol suppresses PS. We examined the effects of cholinergic drug pretreatment. The cholinergic system was chosen because of the involvement of cholinergic neurotransmitters in regulating the sleep-wake cycle. A second set of animals was pretreated with 2.5, 5.0, and 10 mg/kg pilocarpine (cholinergic agonist or atropine (cholinergic antagonist. These drugs were administered 1 h prior to ethanol (3.5 g/kg or vehicle. Treatment with atropine prior to vehicle or ethanol produced a statistically significant decrease in PS, whereas pilocarpine had no effect on minutes of PS. Although the mechanism by which ethanol induces PS suppression is not fully understood, these data suggest that the cholinergic system is not the only system involved in this interaction.

  16. NASA's Risk Management System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perera, Jeevan S.

    2011-01-01

    Leadership is key to success. Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks -- risk office personnel. Each group is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk reporting and communication is an essential element of risk management and will combine both qualitative and quantitative elements. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner. Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

  17. Measuring Systemic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Acharya, Viral V.; Heje Pedersen, Lasse; Philippon, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    We present an economic model of systemic risk in which undercapitalization of the financial sector as a whole is assumed to harm the real economy, leading to a systemic risk externality. Each financial institution’s contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall...... of components of SES to predict emerging systemic risk during the financial crisis of 2007–2009....

  18. Paradoxes of risk management: Social responsibility and self-exclusion in Dutch casinos

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kingma, S.F.

    2015-01-01

    This article deals with the basic contradictions of risk management and responsibility regarding problem gambling and self-exclusions, and draws special attention to the role knowledge production and science play in the construction and evaluation of gambling risks. This remarkable case of corporate

  19. NASA's Risk Management System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perera, Jeevan S.

    2013-01-01

    Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks - not just risk office personnel. Each group/department is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. ? Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner. Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

  20. The Phases and Paradoxes of Educational Quality Assurance: The Case of the Singapore Education System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, Pak Tee

    2008-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to highlight three important insights into educational quality assurance, using Singapore as a case study. It is useful to policy makers and practitioners to understand the phases and paradoxes in their educational quality assurance journey so that they may recognise and manage better the complex dynamics of…

  1. What Paradox?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holt, Robin; Zundel, Mike

    2017-01-01

    This chapter investigates the relationship between paradox and the logical typing of classes and members. Class-based thinking affords efficiency in communication and the progressive, additive development of knowledge, but also creates fissures, shortcuts, truncations, and delimitations that gene......This chapter investigates the relationship between paradox and the logical typing of classes and members. Class-based thinking affords efficiency in communication and the progressive, additive development of knowledge, but also creates fissures, shortcuts, truncations, and delimitations...... that emphasizes interconnectedness and interdependency, which Gregory Bateson calls “grace”: the successful integration of smaller with wider arcs of awareness. This is developed here into a method for studying organizational phenomena using the example of an organizational routine, arguing that this may be one...

  2. Adiposopathy and Obesity Paradox

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Indriyanti Rafi Sukmawati

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Obesity has reached global epidemic proportions in both adults and children and is associated with numerous comorbidities, including hypertension, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM, dyslipidemia and major cardiovascular diseases (CVD. CONTENT: Adiposity may cause adipocyte and adipose tissue anatomic and functional abnormalities, termed adiposopathy (adipose-opathy or "sick fat," that result in endocrine and immune derangements. Adiposopathy may directly contribute to CVD through pericardiac and perivascular effects on the myocardium and blood vessels. Adiposopathy may also indirectly contribute to CVD through promoting or worsening major CVD risk factors such as T2DM, high blood pressure, and dyslipidemia. Despite this adverse association, numerous studies have documented an obesity paradox in which overweight and obese people with established CVD, including hypertension, heart failure, coronary heart disease, and peripheral arterial disease, have a better prognosis compared with nonoverweight/nonobese patients. These paradoxical findings are made less paradoxical when the pathogenic potential of excessive body fat is assessed based on adipose tissue dysfunction rather than simply on increased fat mass alone. SUMMARY: Adiposopathy is defined as pathological adipose tissue function that may be promoted and exacerbated by fat accumulation (adiposity and sedentary lifestyle in genetically susceptible patients. Adiposopathy is a root cause of some of the most common metabolic diseases observed in clinical practice, including T2DM, hypertension and dyslipidemia. KEYWORDS: adiposopathy, adiposity, obesity paradox, adipocyte dysfunction, adipose hypertrophy, adipose hyperplasia.

  3. Considering risk contexts in explaining the paradoxical HIV increase among female sex workers in Mumbai and Thane, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bandewar, Sunita V S; Bharat, Shalini; Kongelf, Anine; Pisal, Hemlata; Collumbien, Martine

    2016-01-28

    The period 2006-2009 saw intensive scale-up of HIV prevention efforts and an increase in reported safer sex among brothel and street-based sex workers in Mumbai and Thane (Maharashtra, India). Yet during the same period, the prevalence of HIV increased in these groups. A better understanding of sex workers' risk environment is needed to explain this paradox. In this qualitative study we conducted 36 individual interviews, 9 joint interviews, and 10 focus group discussions with people associated with HIV interventions between March and May 2012. Dramatic changes in Mumbai's urban landscape dominated participants' accounts, with dwindling sex worker numbers in traditional brothel areas attributed to urban restructuring. Gentrification and anti-trafficking efforts explained an escalation in police raids. This contributed to dispersal of sex work with the sex-trade management adapting by becoming more hidden and mobile, leading to increased vulnerability. Affordable mobile phone technology enabled independent sex workers to trade in more hidden ways and there was an increased dependence on lovers for support. The risk context has become ever more challenging, with animosity against sex work amplified since the scale up of targeted interventions. Focus on condom use with sex workers inadvertently contributed to the diversification of the sex trade as clients seek out women who are less visible. Sex workers and other marginalised women who sell sex all strictly prioritise anonymity. Power structures in the sex trade continue to pose insurmountable barriers to reaching young and new sex workers. Economic vulnerability shaped women's decisions to compromise on condom use. Surveys monitoring HIV prevalence among 'visible' street and brothel-bases sex workers are increasingly un-representative of all women selling sex and self-reported condom use is no longer a valid measure of risk reduction. Targeted harm reduction programmes with sex workers fail when implemented in

  4. Coronary Collateral Circulation and Cardiovascular Risk Factors: Is There a Paradox?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhatt, Hemal; Kochar, Suzi; Htun, Wah Wah; Julliard, Kell; Fernaine, George

    2015-07-01

    We sought to determine the association of major cardiovascular risk factors and other comorbidities with the presence or absence of coronary collateral (CC) circulation. All electronic medical records from 2010 to 2011 were retrospectively reviewed. A total of 563 patients were divided into 2 groups: CC present (180) and CC absent (383). Smoking (P = .012, odds ratio [OR] 1.58), hypercholesterolemia (P = .001, OR 2.21), and hypertension (P = .034, OR 1.75) were associated with the presence of CC. Increasing body mass index (BMI, P = .001) and decreasing estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR, P = .042) were associated with the absence of CC. On multivariable linear regression analysis, hypercholesterolemia (P = .001, OR 2.28), BMI (P = .012, OR 0.77), and eGFR (P = .001, OR 0.70) were found to be independently associated with CC. Our findings will help predict patient populations more likely to have presence or absence of CC circulation. © The Author(s) 2014.

  5. The smoker's paradox after successful fibrinolysis: reduced risk of reocclusion but no improved long-term cardiac outcome.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kievit, P.C.; Brouwer, M.A.; Veen, G.; Aengevaeren, W.R.M.; Verheugt, F.W.A.

    2009-01-01

    BACKGROUND: In smokers treated with fibrinolysis for ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) a paradoxical beneficial short-term outcome has been reported. This was attributed to favorable clinical and angiographic baseline variables and a better response to fibrinolysis. During follow-up infarct

  6. Identity paradoxes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Đurić Jelena

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The article considers paradoxical nature of identity that emerges from: 1 the very concept of identity whose abstract generality unites various and even opposite features; 2 the processual nature of reality that is easier to express in the poetical metaphors or abstract principles than in unambiguous conceptual networks; 3 the oppose relationship between being and knowledge, mind and matter, subject and object, self and personality. Entangled in the labyrinth which evade efforts to be conceptually defined, the modern thinking of identity moves towards abandoning the idea of “self” on behalf of the “ego” and towards the misapprehension of identity as being identical. This corresponds to the “time of the lost spirit” stretched between the simultaneous need to find an identity and to give it up.

  7. Coastal risk forecast system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabino, André; Poseiro, Pedro; Rodrigues, Armanda; Reis, Maria Teresa; Fortes, Conceição J.; Reis, Rui; Araújo, João

    2018-03-01

    The run-up and overtopping by sea waves are two of the main processes that threaten coastal structures, leading to flooding, destruction of both property and the environment, and harm to people. To build early warning systems, the consequences and associated risks in the affected areas must be evaluated. It is also important to understand how these two types of spatial information integrate with sensor data sources and the risk assessment methodology. This paper describes the relationship between consequences and risk maps, their role in risk management and how the HIDRALERTA system integrates both aspects in its risk methodology. It describes a case study for Praia da Vitória Port, Terceira Island, Azores, Portugal, showing that the main innovations in this system are twofold: it represents the overtopping flow and consequent flooding, which are critical for coastal and port areas protected by maritime structures, and it works also as a risk assessment tool, extremely important for long-term planning and decision-making. Moreover, the implementation of the system considers possible known variability issues, enabling changes in its behaviour as needs arise. This system has the potential to become a useful tool for the management of coastal and port areas, due to its capacity to effectively issue warnings and assess risks.

  8. Coastal risk forecast system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabino, André; Poseiro, Pedro; Rodrigues, Armanda; Reis, Maria Teresa; Fortes, Conceição J.; Reis, Rui; Araújo, João

    2018-04-01

    The run-up and overtopping by sea waves are two of the main processes that threaten coastal structures, leading to flooding, destruction of both property and the environment, and harm to people. To build early warning systems, the consequences and associated risks in the affected areas must be evaluated. It is also important to understand how these two types of spatial information integrate with sensor data sources and the risk assessment methodology. This paper describes the relationship between consequences and risk maps, their role in risk management and how the HIDRALERTA system integrates both aspects in its risk methodology. It describes a case study for Praia da Vitória Port, Terceira Island, Azores, Portugal, showing that the main innovations in this system are twofold: it represents the overtopping flow and consequent flooding, which are critical for coastal and port areas protected by maritime structures, and it works also as a risk assessment tool, extremely important for long-term planning and decision-making. Moreover, the implementation of the system considers possible known variability issues, enabling changes in its behaviour as needs arise. This system has the potential to become a useful tool for the management of coastal and port areas, due to its capacity to effectively issue warnings and assess risks.

  9. Exploring the isopycnal mixing and helium–heat paradoxes in a suite of Earth system models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Gnanadesikan

    2015-07-01

    this paper we show that this is not the case. In a suite of models with different spatially constant and spatially varying values of ARedi the distribution of radiocarbon and helium isotopes is sensitive to the value of ARedi. However, away from strong helium sources in the southeastern Pacific, the relationship between the two is not sensitive, indicating that large-scale advection is the limiting process for removing helium and radiocarbon from the deep ocean. The helium isotopes, in turn, suggest a higher value of ARedi below the thermocline than is seen in theoretical parameterizations based on baroclinic growth rates. We argue that a key part of resolving the isopycnal mixing paradox is to abandon the idea that ARedi has a direct relationship to local baroclinic instability and to the so-called "thickness" mixing coefficient AGM.

  10. Measuring Systemic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Acharya, Viral V.; Heje Pedersen, Lasse; Philippon, Thomas

    We present a simple model of systemic risk and we show that each financial institution's contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall (SES), i.e., its propensity to be undercapitalized when the system as a whole is undercapitalized. SES increases...... with the institution's leverage and with its expected loss in the tail of the system's loss distribution. Institutions internalize their externality if they are ‘taxed’ based on their SES. We demonstrate empirically the ability of SES to predict emerging risks during the financial crisis of 2007-2009, in particular......, (i) the outcome of stress tests performed by regulators; (ii) the decline in equity valuations of large financial firms in the crisis; and, (iii) the widening of their credit default swap spreads....

  11. Quantum paradoxes and physical reality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van der Merwe, Alwyn (Denver Univ., CO (USA). Dept. of Physics) (ed.); Selleri, Franco (Bologna Univ. (Italy). Ist. di Fisica)

    1990-01-01

    This book is devoted to the most fundamental themes of quantum physics: acausality, wave-particle duality, Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen (EPR) paradox, and so on. These are matters of growing interest for physicists. Several paradoxes have plagued quantum physics since its beginnings, the easiest of which to solve are the paradoxes of completeness (Schroedinger's cat, Wigner's friend, de Broglie's box, etc.). At a deeper level is the paradox of wave-particle duality whose solution probably requires the Einstein-de Broglie picture of atomic systems. The most difficult of them all is the EPR paradox (incompatibility between local realism and quantum theory). The book shows that experimental research can, in principle, solve paradoxes such as EPR and wave-particle duality but that the experiments performed on Bell-type inequalities have instead left the conceptual situation fundamentally unmodified. For a fair understanding of the Einstein-de Broglie and of the Bohr-Heisenberg ideas, an 'internal' lecture of physics is not enough. Such 'external' elements as individual biographies, history of culture, and philosophical preconceptions prove also to be important. (author). refs.; figs.; tabs.

  12. Quantum paradoxes and physical reality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van der Merwe, Alwyn; Selleri, Franco

    1990-01-01

    This book is devoted to the most fundamental themes of quantum physics: acausality, wave-particle duality, Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen (EPR) paradox, and so on. These are matters of growing interest for physicists. Several paradoxes have plagued quantum physics since its beginnings, the easiest of which to solve are the paradoxes of completeness (Schroedinger's cat, Wigner's friend, de Broglie's box, etc.). At a deeper level is the paradox of wave-particle duality whose solution probably requires the Einstein-de Broglie picture of atomic systems. The most difficult of them all is the EPR paradox (incompatibility between local realism and quantum theory). The book shows that experimental research can, in principle, solve paradoxes such as EPR and wave-particle duality but that the experiments performed on Bell-type inequalities have instead left the conceptual situation fundamentally unmodified. For a fair understanding of the Einstein-de Broglie and of the Bohr-Heisenberg ideas, an 'internal' lecture of physics is not enough. Such 'external' elements as individual biographies, history of culture, and philosophical preconceptions prove also to be important. (author). refs.; figs.; tabs

  13. Measuring Systemic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heje Pedersen, Lasse

    We present a simple model of systemic risk and we show that each financial institution’s contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall (SES), i.e., its propensity to be undercapitalized when the system as a whole is undercapitalized. SES increases...... with the institution’s leverage and with its expected loss in the tail of the system’s loss distribution. Institutions internalize their externality if they are “taxed” based on their SES. We demonstrate empirically the ability of SES to predict emerging risks during the financial crisis of 2007-2009, in particular......, (i) the outcome of stress tests performed by regulators; (ii) the decline in equity valuations of large financial firms in the crisis; and, (iii) the widening of their credit default swap spreads....

  14. Multisetting Greenberger-Horne-Zeilinger paradoxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Weidong; Yu, Sixia; Oh, C. H.

    2017-01-01

    The Greenberger-Horne-Zeilinger (GHZ) paradox provides an all-versus-nothing test for the quantum nonlocality. In most of the GHZ paradoxes known so far each observer is allowed to measure only two alternative observables. Here we present a general construction for GHZ paradoxes in which each observer measures more than two observables given that the system is prepared in the n -qudit GHZ state. By doing so we are able to construct a multisetting GHZ paradox for the n -qubit GHZ state, with n being arbitrary, which is genuine n -partite; i.e., no GHZ paradox exists when restricted to a subset of a number of observers for a given set of Mermin observables. Our result fills up the gap of the absence of a genuine GHZ paradox for the GHZ state of an even number of qubits, especially the four-qubit GHZ state as used in GHZ's original proposal.

  15. The Teacher's Paradox

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lilyquist, J. Gary

    1998-06-01

    New findings suggest that the way in which schools conduct their business is blocking our educational system from improving at a rate required to meet society's needs. A ground theory developed by exploring six organizational dimensions: external and internal environment cultures, leadership, strategy, structure, and results, verified the existence of the teacher's paradox. Implications suggest educational reformers must rethink approaches to school improvement by work within cultural boundaries. The forth coming book, "Are schools really like this?" presents "The Balance Alignment Model and Theory" to improve our schools using system thinking.

  16. The Paradox of Restoring Native River Landscapes and Restoring Native Ecosystems in the Colorado River System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, J. C.

    2014-12-01

    Throughout the Colorado River basin (CRb), scientists and river managers collaborate to improve native ecosystems. Native ecosystems have deteriorated due to construction of dams and diversions that alter natural flow, sediment supply, and temperature regimes, trans-basin diversions that extract large amounts of water from some segments of the channel network, and invasion of non-native animals and plants. These scientist/manager collaborations occur in large, multi-stakeholder, adaptive management programs that include the Lower Colorado River Multi-Species Conservation Program, the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program, and the Upper Colorado River Endangered Species Recovery Program. Although a fundamental premise of native species recovery is that restoration of predam flow regimes inevitably leads to native species recovery, such is not the case in many parts of the CRb. For example, populations of the endangered humpback chub (Gila cypha) are largest in the sediment deficit, thermally altered conditions of the Colorado River downstream from Glen Canyon Dam, but these species occur in much smaller numbers in the upper CRb even though the flow regime, sediment supply, and sediment mass balance are less perturbed. Similar contrasts in the physical and biological response of restoration of predam flow regimes occurs in floodplains dominated by nonnative tamarisk (Tamarix spp.) where reestablishment of floods has the potential to exacerbate vertical accretion processes that disconnect the floodplain from the modern flow regime. A significant challenge in restoring segments of the CRb is to describe this paradox of physical and biological response to reestablishment of pre-dam flow regimes, and to clearly identify objectives of environmentally oriented river management. In many cases, understanding the nature of the perturbation to sediment mass balance caused by dams and diversions and understanding the constraints imposed by societal commitments to provide

  17. The formulation of dynamical contact problems with friction in the case of systems of rigid bodies and general discrete mechanical systems—Painlevé and Kane paradoxes revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charles, Alexandre; Ballard, Patrick

    2016-08-01

    The dynamics of mechanical systems with a finite number of degrees of freedom (discrete mechanical systems) is governed by the Lagrange equation which is a second-order differential equation on a Riemannian manifold (the configuration manifold). The handling of perfect (frictionless) unilateral constraints in this framework (that of Lagrange's analytical dynamics) was undertaken by Schatzman and Moreau at the beginning of the 1980s. A mathematically sound and consistent evolution problem was obtained, paving the road for many subsequent theoretical investigations. In this general evolution problem, the only reaction force which is involved is a generalized reaction force, consistently with the virtual power philosophy of Lagrange. Surprisingly, such a general formulation was never derived in the case of frictional unilateral multibody dynamics. Instead, the paradigm of the Coulomb law applying to reaction forces in the real world is generally invoked. So far, this paradigm has only enabled to obtain a consistent evolution problem in only some very few specific examples and to suggest numerical algorithms to produce computational examples (numerical modeling). In particular, it is not clear what is the evolution problem underlying the computational examples. Moreover, some of the few specific cases in which this paradigm enables to write down a precise evolution problem are known to show paradoxes: the Painlevé paradox (indeterminacy) and the Kane paradox (increase in kinetic energy due to friction). In this paper, we follow Lagrange's philosophy and formulate the frictional unilateral multibody dynamics in terms of the generalized reaction force and not in terms of the real-world reaction force. A general evolution problem that governs the dynamics is obtained for the first time. We prove that all the solutions are dissipative; that is, this new formulation is free of Kane paradox. We also prove that some indeterminacy of the Painlevé paradox is fixed in this

  18. Another paradox involving the second law of thermodynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sheehan, D.P.

    1996-01-01

    Recently a paradox has been posed that appears to challenge the second law of thermodynamics in a plasma blackbody environment [D. P. Sheehan, Phys. Plasmas 2, 1893 (1995)]. In this paper another, related paradox is posed in an unmagnetized Q plasma. Laboratory experiments simulating some necessary conditions for the paradoxical system corroborate theoretical predictions and fail to resolve the paradox in favor of the second law. copyright 1996 American Institute of Physics

  19. Mechanical Paradox: The Uphill Roller

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cortes, Emilio; Cortes-Poza, D.

    2011-01-01

    We analyse in detail the dynamics of a mechanical system which is a rigid body with the geometry of a double cone. This double cone is apparently able to spontaneously roll uphill along inclined rails. The experiment has been known for some centuries, and because of its peculiar behaviour, it has been named "mechanical paradox". Although this…

  20. Is the EPR paradox really a paradox?

    OpenAIRE

    Tartaglia, A.

    1998-01-01

    The EPR paradox and the meaning of the Bell inequality are discussed. It is shown that considering the quantum objects as carrying with them ''instruction kits'' telling them what to do when meeting a measurement apparatus any paradox disappears. In this view the quantum state is characterized by the prescribed behaviour rather than by the specific value a parameter assumes as a result of an interaction.

  1. Information systems for risk management

    OpenAIRE

    Michael S. Gibson

    1997-01-01

    Risk management information systems are designed to overcome the problem of aggregating data across diverse trading units. The design of an information system depends on the risk measurement methodology that a firm chooses. Inherent in the design of both a risk management information system and a risk measurement methodology is a tradeoff between the accuracy of the resulting measures of risk and the burden of computing them. Technical progress will make this tradeoff more favorable over time...

  2. Tachyons and causal paradoxes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maund, J.B.

    1979-01-01

    Although the existence of tachyons is not ruled out by special relativity, it appears that causal paradoxes will arise if there are tachyons. The usual solutions to these paradoxes employ some form of the reinterpretation principle. In this paper it is argued first that, the principle is incoherent, second, that even if it is not, some causal paradoxes remain, and third, the most plausible ''solution,'' which appeals to boundary conditions of the universe, will conflict with special relativity

  3. Bosonic analog of the Klein paradox

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, R. E.; Ware, M. R.; Su, Q.; Grobe, R.

    2010-01-01

    The standard Klein paradox describes how an incoming electron scatters off a supercritical electrostatic barrier that is so strong that it can generate electron-positron pairs. This fermionic system has been widely discussed in textbooks to illustrate some of the discrepancies between quantum mechanical and quantum field theoretical descriptions for the pair creation process. We compare the fermionic dynamics with that of the corresponding bosonic system. We point out that the direct counterpart of the Pauli exclusion principle (the central mechanism to resolve the fermionic Klein paradox) is stimulated emission, which leads to the resolution of the analogous bosonic paradox.

  4. Mathematical fallacies and paradoxes

    CERN Document Server

    Bunch, Bryan

    1982-01-01

    Stimulating, thought-provoking analysis of the most interesting intellectual inconsistencies in mathematics, physics, and language, including being led astray by algebra (De Morgan's paradox). 1982 edition.

  5. Tachyons without paradoxes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barrowes, S.C.

    1977-01-01

    Tachyon paradoxes, including causality paradoxes, have persisted within tachyon theories and left little hope for the existence of observable tachyons. A way is presented to solve the causality paradoxes, along with two other paradoxes, by the introduction of an absolute frame of reference in which a tachyon effect may never precede its cause. Relativity for ordinary matter is unaffected by this, even if the tachyons couple to ordinary particles. Violations of the principle of relativity due to the absolute frame would appear only in the case of free tachyons

  6. Generalized Hardy's Paradox

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Shu-Han; Xu, Zhen-Peng; Su, Hong-Yi; Pati, Arun Kumar; Chen, Jing-Ling

    2018-01-01

    Here, we present the most general framework for n -particle Hardy's paradoxes, which include Hardy's original one and Cereceda's extension as special cases. Remarkably, for any n ≥3 , we demonstrate that there always exist generalized paradoxes (with the success probability as high as 1 /2n -1) that are stronger than the previous ones in showing the conflict of quantum mechanics with local realism. An experimental proposal to observe the stronger paradox is also presented for the case of three qubits. Furthermore, from these paradoxes we can construct the most general Hardy's inequalities, which enable us to detect Bell's nonlocality for more quantum states.

  7. Focus on: The cardiovascular system: what did we learn from the French (Paradox)?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mochly-Rosen, Daria; Zakhari, Samir

    2010-01-01

    Although heavy alcohol consumption has deleterious effects on heart health, moderate drinking is thought to have cardioprotective effects, reducing the risk of coronary artery disease and improving prognosis after a myocardial infarction. It still is unclear, however, if this effect can be achieved with all types of alcoholic beverages and results from the alcohol itself, from other compounds found in alcoholic beverages, or both. For example, the polyphenolic compound resveratrol, which is found particularly in red wine, can reduce the risk of atherosclerosis; however, it is not clear if the resveratrol levels present in wine are sufficient to achieve this result. Alcohol itself contributes to cardioprotection through several mechanisms. For example, it can improve the cholesterol profile, increasing the levels of "good" cholesterol and reducing the levels of "bad" cholesterol. Alcohol also may contribute to blood clot dissolution and may induce a phenomenon called pre-conditioning, whereby exposure to moderate alcohol levels (like short bouts of blood supply disruption [i.e., ischemia]), and result in reduced damage to the heart tissue after subsequent prolonged ischemia. Finally, the enzyme aldehyde dehydrogenase (ALDH) 2, which is involved in alcohol metabolism, also may contribute to alcohol-related cardioprotection by metabolizing other harmful aldehydes that could damage the heart muscle.

  8. Reflections on the 1986 Student Movement: Some Paradoxes in France's System of Higher Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gruson, Pascale

    1988-01-01

    Events and factors leading to the 1986 uprising among French university students are outlined and discussed. The protest and its tragic results occurred because of a sometimes misunderstood new plan to restrict admissions and impose higher fees in order to make the system more efficient. (MSE)

  9. The paradox of systemic vasodilatation and sympathetic nervous stimulation in space

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Norsk, Peter; Christensen, Niels Juel

    2009-01-01

    decreased by 5mmHg. This is in accordance with observations that very acute weightlessness during parabolic airplane flights and a week of weightlessness in space leads to a decrease in systemic vascular resistance. That the arterial resistance vessels are dilated in space is in contrast to the augmented...

  10. Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen paradox and quantum steering in a three-mode optomechanical system

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Qiongyi; Ficek, Zbigniew

    2014-02-01

    We study multipartite entanglement, the generation of Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen (EPR) states, and quantum steering in a three-mode optomechanical system composed of an atomic ensemble located inside a single-mode cavity with a movable mirror. The cavity mode is driven by a short laser pulse, has a nonlinear parametric-type interaction with the mirror and a linear beam-splitter-type interaction with the atomic ensemble. There is no direct interaction of the mirror with the atomic ensemble. A threshold effect for the dynamics of the system is found, above which the system works as an amplifier and below which as an attenuator of the output fields. The threshold is determined by the ratio of the coupling strengths of the cavity mode to the mirror and to the atomic ensemble. It is shown that above the threshold, the system effectively behaves as a two-mode system in which a perfect bipartite EPR state can be generated, while it is impossible below the threshold. Furthermore, a fully inseparable tripartite entanglement and even further a genuine tripartite entanglement can be produced above and below the threshold. In addition, we consider quantum steering and examine the monogamy relations that quantify the amount of bipartite steering that can be shared between different modes. It is found that the mirror is more capable for steering of entanglement than the cavity mode. The two-way steering is found between the mirror and the atomic ensemble despite the fact that they are not directly coupled to each other, while it is impossible between the output of cavity mode and the ensemble which are directly coupled to each other.

  11. Percutaneous closure of patent foramen ovale in patients with presumed paradoxical embolism: periprocedural results and midterm risk of recurrent neurologic events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balbi, Manrico; Casalino, Laura; Gnecco, Giovanni; Bezante, Gian Paolo; Pongiglione, Giacomo; Marasini, Maurizio; Del Sette, Massimo; Barsotti, Antonio

    2008-08-01

    To report our data on selected patients with previous paradoxical embolism who underwent transcatheter patent foramen ovale (PFO) closure. Between July 2001 and July 2007, percutaneous PFO closure was performed on 128 patients (65 women, mean age: 46 +/- 12.8 years). Patent foramen ovale closure was recommended for secondary prevention in patients with previous transient ischemic attacks (52.5%), stroke (46%), or peripheral embolism (1.5%). Implantation was successful in all patients, and at the end of intervention, complete PFO closure was achieved in 70.3% of them. There were no "major" complications (ie, deaths, device embolization or thrombosis, need for cardiac surgery). The overall incidence of complications (mostly hemorrhagic) was 7%. The mean follow-up period was 32 months. Complete closure had been achieved in 78.4% and in 82.5% of patients at the third month of transesophageal echocardiography examination and at the sixth month of transcranial Doppler examination, respectively. There were no recurrent thromboembolic events during the follow-up period. Percutaneous closure of PFO is a feasible procedure, but it is not a risk-free technique. However, in correctly selected patients (ie, large PFO and those at risk for neurologic relapse), nearly complete PFO closure seems to provide protection from future neurologic ischaemic events at midterm follow-up.

  12. Paradoxical cerebral air embolism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopez-Negrete, L.; Garcia-Lozano, J.; Sanchez, J. L.; Sala, J.

    2000-01-01

    We present a fatal case of intracranial air embolism produced by the passage of intravenous air to the arteries owing to the existence of a patent foremen ovale associated with pulmonary hypertension, which permitted a right-left shunt (paradoxical embolism). The pathophysiological mechanisms of pneumcephalus and paradoxical embolism are discussed and the pertinent literature is reviewed. (Author) 6 refs

  13. Electromagnetic reaction paradox

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aspden, H.

    1984-01-01

    Alternative explanations for free-electron diamagnetism appear paradoxical and inconsistent with the reactive induction properties of magnetic materials. It is shown that the paradox can be eliminated by a generalized definition of the magnetic field with interesting spin-off consequences, including a justification for the anomalous doubling of the positron's effective mass in a free-electron environment

  14. Financial Network Systemic Risk Contributions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hautsch, N.; Schaumburg, J.; Schienle, M.

    2015-01-01

    We propose the realized systemic risk beta as a measure of financial companies' contribution to systemic risk, given network interdependence between firms' tail risk exposures. Conditional on statistically pre-identified network spillover effects and market and balance sheet information, we define

  15. Paradoxical aortic stenosis: A systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavaca, Rita; Teixeira, Rogério; Vieira, Maria João; Gonçalves, Lino

    2017-04-01

    Aortic stenosis (AS) is a complex systemic valvular and vascular disease with a high prevalence in developed countries. The new entity "paradoxical low-flow, low-gradient aortic stenosis" refers to cases in which patients have severe AS based on assessment of aortic valve area (AVA) (≤1 cm 2 ) or indexed AVA (≤0.6 cm 2 /m 2 ), but paradoxically have a low mean transvalvular gradient (<40 mmHg) and a low stroke volume index (≤35 ml/m 2 ), despite preserved left ventricular ejection fraction (≥50%). A search was carried out in the PubMed database on paradoxical AS for the period 2007-2014. A total of 57 articles were included for this review. The prevalence of paradoxical AS ranged from 3% to 35% of the population with severe degenerative AS. It was more frequent in females and in older patients. Paradoxical AS was associated with characteristic left ventricular remodeling as well as an increase in systemic arterial stiffness. It was noted that there may be errors and inaccuracies in the calculation of AVA by the continuity equation, which could erroneously suggest the paradoxical phenotype. There are new diagnostic methods to facilitate the study of AS, such as aortic valve calcium score, valvuloarterial impedance and the longitudinal mechanics of the left ventricle. With regard to its natural history, it is not clear whether paradoxical AS corresponds to an advance stage of the disease or if paradoxical AS patients have a distinct phenotype with specific characteristics. Valve replacement, either surgical or percutaneous, may be indicated in patients with severe and symptomatic paradoxical AS. Copyright © 2016 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  16. Paradoxes in probability theory

    CERN Document Server

    Eckhardt, William

    2013-01-01

    Paradoxes provide a vehicle for exposing misinterpretations and misapplications of accepted principles. This book discusses seven paradoxes surrounding probability theory.  Some remain the focus of controversy; others have allegedly been solved, however the accepted solutions are demonstrably incorrect. Each paradox is shown to rest on one or more fallacies.  Instead of the esoteric, idiosyncratic, and untested methods that have been brought to bear on these problems, the book invokes uncontroversial probability principles, acceptable both to frequentists and subjectivists. The philosophical disputation inspired by these paradoxes is shown to be misguided and unnecessary; for instance, startling claims concerning human destiny and the nature of reality are directly related to fallacious reasoning in a betting paradox, and a problem analyzed in philosophy journals is resolved by means of a computer program.

  17. Patients with Testicular Cancer Undergoing CT Surveillance Demonstrate a Pitfall of Radiation-induced Cancer Risk Estimates: The Timing Paradox

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisenberg, Jonathan D.; Lee, Richard J.; Gilmore, Michael E.; Turan, Ekin A.; Singh, Sarabjeet; Kalra, Mannudeep K.; Liu, Bob; Kong, Chung Yin; Gazelle, G. Scott

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: To demonstrate a limitation of lifetime radiation-induced cancer risk metrics in the setting of testicular cancer surveillance—in particular, their failure to capture the delayed timing of radiation-induced cancers over the course of a patient’s lifetime. Materials and Methods: Institutional review board approval was obtained for the use of computed tomographic (CT) dosimetry data in this study. Informed consent was waived. This study was HIPAA compliant. A Markov model was developed to project outcomes in patients with testicular cancer who were undergoing CT surveillance in the decade after orchiectomy. To quantify effects of early versus delayed risks, life expectancy losses and lifetime mortality risks due to testicular cancer were compared with life expectancy losses and lifetime mortality risks due to radiation-induced cancers from CT. Projections of life expectancy loss, unlike lifetime risk estimates, account for the timing of risks over the course of a lifetime, which enabled evaluation of the described limitation of lifetime risk estimates. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods were used to estimate the uncertainty of the results. Results: As an example of evidence yielded, 33-year-old men with stage I seminoma who were undergoing CT surveillance were projected to incur a slightly higher lifetime mortality risk from testicular cancer (598 per 100 000; 95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 302, 894) than from radiation-induced cancers (505 per 100 000; 95% UI: 280, 730). However, life expectancy loss attributable to testicular cancer (83 days; 95% UI: 42, 124) was more than three times greater than life expectancy loss attributable to radiation-induced cancers (24 days; 95% UI: 13, 35). Trends were consistent across modeled scenarios. Conclusion: Lifetime radiation risk estimates, when used for decision making, may overemphasize radiation-induced cancer risks relative to short-term health risks. © RSNA, 2012 Supplemental material: http

  18. Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS) monitors six types of health-risk behaviors that contribute to the leading causes of death and disability among youth and adults, including— Behaviors that contribute ...

  19. Obesity and Hypertension, Heart Failure, and Coronary Heart Disease—Risk Factor, Paradox, and Recommendations for Weight Loss

    OpenAIRE

    Artham, Surya M.; Lavie, Carl J.; Milani, Richard V.; Ventura, Hector O.

    2009-01-01

    Obesity prevalence has reached epidemic proportions and is independently associated with numerous cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors, including diabetes mellitus, hypertension, dyslipidemia, cancers, sleep apnea, and other major CVDs. Obesity has significant negative impact on CVD, including hypertension, coronary heart disease, heart failure, and arrhythmias via its maladaptive effects on individual CVD risk factors and cardiac structure and function. Despite this negative association...

  20. Quantum Quasi-Paradoxes and Quantum Sorites Paradoxes

    CERN Document Server

    Smarandache, F

    1997-01-01

    There can be generated many paradoxes or quasi-paradoxes that may occur from the combination of quantum and non-quantum worlds in physics. Even the passage from the micro-cosmos to the macro-cosmos, and reciprocally, can generate unsolved questions or counter-intuitive ideas. We define a quasi-paradox as a statement which has a prima facie self-contradictory support or an explicit contradiction, but which is not completely proven as a paradox. We present herein four elementary quantum quasi-paradoxes and their corresponding quantum Sorites paradoxes, which form a class of quantum quasi-paradoxes.

  1. Quantum Quasi-Paradoxes and Quantum Sorites Paradoxes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smarandache F.

    2005-04-01

    Full Text Available There can be generated many paradoxes or quasi-paradoxes that may occur from the combination of quantum and non-quantum worlds in physics. Even the passage from the micro-cosmos to the macro-cosmos, and reciprocally, can generate unsolved questions or counter-intuitive ideas. We define a quasi-paradox as a statement which has a prima facie self-contradictory support or an explicit contradiction, but which is not completely proven as a paradox. We present herein four elementary quantum quasi-paradoxes and their corresponding quantum Sorites paradoxes, which form a class of quantum quasi-paradoxes.

  2. A Resolution of the Paradox of Enrichment

    OpenAIRE

    Feng, Z. C.; Li, Y. Charles

    2011-01-01

    The paradox of enrichment was observed by M. Rosenzweig in a class of predator-prey models. Two of the parameters in the models are crucial for the paradox. These two parameters are the prey's carrying capacity and prey's half-saturation for predation. Intuitively, increasing the carrying capacity due to enrichment of the prey's environment should lead to a more stable predator-prey system. Analytically, it turns out that increasing the carrying capacity always leads to an unstable predator-p...

  3. Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

    2001-01-01

    A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

  4. Disparities in Cardiovascular Disease and Type 2 Diabetes Risk Factors in Blacks and Whites: Dissecting Racial Paradox of Metabolic Syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kwame Osei

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Cardiovascular diseases (CVD remain as the leading cause of mortality in the western world and have become a major health threat for developing countries. There are several risk factors that account for the CVD and the associated mortality. These include genetics, type 2 diabetes (T2DM, obesity, physical inactivity, hypertension, and abnormal lipids and lipoproteins. The constellation of these risk factors has been termed metabolic syndrome (MetS. MetS varies among racial and ethnic populations. Thus, race and ethnicity account for some of the differences in the MetS and the associated CVD and T2DM. Furthermore, the relationships among traditional metabolic parameters and CVD differ, especially when comparing Black and White populations. In this regard, the greater CVD in Blacks than Whites have been partly attributed to other non-traditional CVD risk factors, such as subclinical inflammation (C-reactive protein, homocysteine, increased low-density lipoprotein oxidation, lipoprotein a, adiponectin, and plasminogen activator inhibitor-1, etc. Thus, to understand CVD and T2DM differences in Blacks and Whites with MetS, it is essential to explore the contributions of both traditional and non-traditional CVD and T2DM risk factors in Blacks of African ancestry and Whites of Europoid ancestry. Therefore, in this mini review, we propose that non-traditional risk factors should be integrated in defining MetS as a predictor of CVD and T2DM in Blacks in the African diaspora in future studies.

  5. Paradoxes in Practice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Charlotte Øland; Schulze, Pernille; Larsen, Mette Vinther

    The purpose of this paper is to explore how paradoxes unfold in management practices and how moments of relational dialogic, self-reflexive learning can transform these paradoxes into new understandings of the complexities of organizing and management. We work with paradox, not as a label...... to explore ‘the flux of reality from within’ with the managers. We therefore draw on Bakhtin’s ideas regarding ongoing centripetal (monologic) and centrifugal (dialogic) forces of language and aim to demonstrate how working with language and the awareness of the embodied embedded practices at the same time...

  6. The Simpson's paradox unraveled

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hernán, Miguel A; Clayton, David; Keiding, Niels

    2011-01-01

    Background In a famous article, Simpson described a hypothetical data example that led to apparently paradoxical results. Methods We make the causal structure of Simpson’s example explicit. Results We show how the paradox disappears when the statistical analysis is appropriately guided by subject......-matter knowledge. We also review previous explanations of Simpson’s paradox that attributed it to two distinct phenomena: confounding and non-collapsibility. Conclusion Analytical errors may occur when the problem is stripped of its causal context and analyzed merely in statistical terms....

  7. Underground risk management information systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matsuyama, S.; Inoue, M.; Sakai, T.

    2006-03-15

    JCOAL has conducted Joint Research on an Underground Communication and Risk Management Information System with CSIRO of Australia under a commissioned study project for the promotion of coal use starting in fiscal 2002. The goal of this research project is the establishment of a new Safety System focusing on the comprehensive risk management information system by the name of Nexsys. The main components of the system are the Ethernet type underground communication system that represents the data communication base, and the risk management information system that permits risk analysis in real-time and provides decision support based on the collected data. The Nexsys is an open system and is a core element of the underground monitoring system. Using a vast amount of underground data, it is capable of accommodating a wide range of functions that were not available in the past. Because of it, it is possible to construct an advanced underground safety system. 14 figs., 4 tabs.

  8. Mechanical paradox: the uphill roller

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cortes, Emilio; Cortes-Poza, D

    2011-01-01

    We analyse in detail the dynamics of a mechanical system which is a rigid body with the geometry of a double cone. This double cone is apparently able to spontaneously roll uphill along inclined rails. The experiment has been known for some centuries, and because of its peculiar behaviour, it has been named 'mechanical paradox'. Although this instrument is well known today, we have not found in the literature a dynamical study like the one we are presenting. A deeper analysis of this mechanical object will allow us to go further than explaining the apparent paradox in the system; it will show interesting features of the dynamics that are not evident or intuitive. In this work, we follow a complete study of the geometry, the kinematic variables and the Lagrangian dynamics of the problem for any set of the angular parameters and initial values, and obtain as a result a full description of the dynamic variables of this mechanical device. In addition to studying the dynamics of the system with the angles that yield the typical paradoxical behaviour, we study carefully what we call the constant potential geometry regime, where the centre of mass maintains its height, and found in this particular case some features of the dynamics which are not common in rolling objects. We believe that this work can offer the student good material to review some fundamental concepts of analytical mechanics.

  9. The core paradox.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, G. C.; Higgins, G. H.

    1973-01-01

    Rebuttal of suggestions from various critics attempting to provide an escape from the seeming paradox originated by Higgins and Kennedy's (1971) proposed possibility that the liquid in the outer core was thermally stably stratified and that this stratification might prove a powerful inhibitor to circulation of the outer core fluid of the kind postulated for the generation of the earth's magnetic field. These suggestions are examined and shown to provide no reasonable escape from the core paradox.

  10. An American Paradox

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamieson, D.

    2006-01-01

    This paper explores the paradox that while Americans generally identify themselves as environmentalists, they show little willingness to voluntarily restrain their behavior or to support specific fiscal policies that would result in increased levels of environmental protection. I explore the role of values in the explanation of this paradox, and discuss some of the difficulties involved in studying values and their role in human behavior

  11. Man Is a Paradox

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王茂娟

    2009-01-01

    In the poem "Always", the author Pablo Neruda employs the first person narration to incisively reveal the paradoxical traits in human nature by exploring man in relation to love. "I" play a role shifting from a calm narrator to a furious one, and the last recovering to a mild one, which offers a multiple visual angle to observe humanity. In sum, by means of continuous changes of my inner feelings in the poem, Pablo Neruda reveals the paradoxical humanity .

  12. Extending Cantor Paradox

    OpenAIRE

    Leon, Antonio

    2008-01-01

    The inconsistencies involved in the foundation of set theory were invariably caused by infinity and self-reference; and only with the opportune axiomatic restrictions could them be obviated. Throughout history, both concepts have proved to be an exhaustible source of paradoxes and contradictions. It seems therefore legitimate to pose some questions concerning their formal consistency. This is just the objective of this paper. Starting from an extension of Cantor's paradox that suggests the in...

  13. The quercetin paradox

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boots, Agnes W.; Li, Hui; Schins, Roel P.F.; Duffin, Rodger; Heemskerk, Johan W.M.; Bast, Aalt; Haenen, Guido R.M.M.

    2007-01-01

    Free radical scavenging antioxidants, such as quercetin, are chemically converted into oxidation products when they protect against free radicals. The main oxidation product of quercetin, however, displays a high reactivity towards thiols, which can lead to the loss of protein function. The quercetin paradox is that in the process of offering protection, quercetin is converted into a potential toxic product. In the present study, this paradox is evaluated using rat lung epithelial (RLE) cells. It was found that quercetin efficiently protects against H 2 O 2 -induced DNA damage in RLE cells, but this damage is swapped for a reduction in GSH level, an increase in LDH leakage as well as an increase of the cytosolic free calcium concentration. To our knowledge, this is the first study that indicates that the quercetin paradox, i.e. the exchange of damage caused by quercetin and its metabolites, also occurs in living lung cells. Following depletion of GSH in the cells by BSO pre-treatment, this quercetin paradox becomes more pronounced, confirming that the formation of thiol reactive quercetin metabolites is involved in the quercetin paradox. The quercetin paradox in living cells implies that the anti-oxidant directs oxidative damage selectively to thiol arylation. Apparently, the potential toxicity of metabolites formed during the actual antioxidant activity of free radical scavengers should be considered in antioxidant supplementation

  14. On Hardy's paradox, weak measurements, and multitasking diagrams

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meglicki, Zdzislaw

    2011-01-01

    We discuss Hardy's paradox and weak measurements by using multitasking diagrams, which are introduced to illustrate the progress of quantum probabilities through the double interferometer system. We explain how Hardy's paradox is avoided and elaborate on the outcome of weak measurements in this context. -- Highlights: → Hardy's paradox explained and eliminated. → Weak measurements: what is really measured? → Multitasking diagrams: introduced and used to discuss quantum mechanical processes.

  15. Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — EPA?s Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) is a compilation of electronic reports on specific substances found in the environment and their potential to cause...

  16. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denman, Matthew R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Ames, Arlo Leroy [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  17. Use of informed consent with therapeutic paradox.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farkas, M M

    1992-01-01

    Debate persists in the literature and among clinicians about the ethical appropriateness of paradoxical interventions. It has been suggested that informed consent with therapeutic paradox would alleviate ethical concerns of deception, manipulation, harm to the client, and withholding of information from the client in therapy. The purpose of this study was to explore health care consumer reactions to the benefits and risks of therapeutic paradox as stated in a consent for treatment form. The study explored the responses of 32 medical patients to a hypothetical consent for treatment form for therapeutic paradox. Data were collected in a brief semistructured interview after subjects read the hypothetical consent form. Utilizing a case study, the investigator then offered an example of a successful paradoxical intervention and additional subject comments were solicited. Content analysis of the responses was made. Health care consumers had mixed responses to the consent form. While the consent form served as an obstacle for some consumers, many were willing to sign the consent form and accept treatment even though they had internal reservations and questions. Appropriateness of the consent form format is discussed.

  18. [The paradox of motherhood].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouaidou, N G

    1990-08-01

    All Sahelian countries are working to define their population policies. A population policy document avoids dispersion and duplication. It opens the path to efficiency. It makes it easier to achieve governmental socioeconomic objectives. Various recent population-related meetings have at least two points in common: they aim to overstep and improve a given situation and are at the same time some examples of implementing the Ndjamena action program, adopted in January 1989. All these population-centered actions return to the problem of adolescent fertility--a poignant problem. Adolescent pregnancy is a major source of family and social break-ups. This paradox of motherhood makes a violent storm burst in the skies ordinarily serene with joy and hope. It is an enemy perverse to economic development and social progress. Adolescent motherhood is a phenomenon which complicates and aggravates population problems and is taboo to the point it is still imperceptible, unknown. It is a problem of premier importance in the Sahel. Pregnancy strikes a woman so very unprepared for motherhood and its demands. It risks the life of a being which is preparing itself to enter the world. Adolescent pregnancy has equally tragic health effects: poorly performed underground abortions and maternal and infant deaths. Adolescent fertility is a burning problem regardless of the perspective (demographic, economic, social, or health). In Sahelian countries, one is beginning to be interested in and to speak about it. It will be necessary to search for solutions. Schools must be a top target for all activities aiming to check adolescent fertility. The emphasis must be on information, education, and responsibility of girls, boys, teachers, and parents. Education and training are of capital importance for socioeconomic development of the Sahel. All activities implemented in the education sector should include a large place for family life education in pregnancy prevention.

  19. Managing operational paradoxes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olson, J.; Baker, K.; Thurber, J.

    1992-01-01

    The economic, regulatory, and social environment of commercial nuclear power has changed dramatically in the last 10 yr. In addition to the increased regulatory pressure resulting from the Three Mile Island incident and other factors, nuclear utilities have experienced increasing financial pressure from state public utility commissions and investors. To successfully manage nuclear power plants in today's environment requires different skills and strategies than were required 10 yr ago. External pressures on the utility and plant organization have created a series of operational paradoxes unmatched in the history of commercial nuclear power. This paper is based on a synthesis of findings and observations from a series of studies conducted by the authors over the past 10 yr. The authors identify a series of specific paradoxes facing managers of nuclear power plants and suggest several strategies for managing these paradoxes

  20. Black Hole Paradoxes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joshi, Pankaj S.; Narayan, Ramesh

    2016-01-01

    We propose here that the well-known black hole paradoxes such as the information loss and teleological nature of the event horizon are restricted to a particular idealized case, which is the homogeneous dust collapse model. In this case, the event horizon, which defines the boundary of the black hole, forms initially, and the singularity in the interior of the black hole at a later time. We show that, in contrast, gravitational collapse from physically more realistic initial conditions typically leads to the scenario in which the event horizon and space-time singularity form simultaneously. We point out that this apparently simple modification can mitigate the causality and teleological paradoxes, and also lends support to two recently suggested solutions to the information paradox, namely, the ‘firewall’ and ‘classical chaos’ proposals. (paper)

  1. Integrated risk information system (IRIS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tuxen, L. [Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States)

    1990-12-31

    The Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) is an electronic information system developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) containing information related to health risk assessment. IRIS is the Agency`s primary vehicle for communication of chronic health hazard information that represents Agency consensus following comprehensive review by intra-Agency work groups. The original purpose for developing IRIS was to provide guidance to EPA personnel in making risk management decisions. This original purpose for developing IRIS was to guidance to EPA personnel in making risk management decisions. This role has expanded and evolved with wider access and use of the system. IRIS contains chemical-specific information in summary format for approximately 500 chemicals. IRIS is available to the general public on the National Library of Medicine`s Toxicology Data Network (TOXNET) and on diskettes through the National Technical Information Service (NTIS).

  2. Paradoxical embolism: computed tomography demonstration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaye, J.; Hayward, M.

    2001-01-01

    Paradoxical emboli are rare and often presumptively diagnosed. A case of paradoxical embolism, in which both the arterial and venous emboli were documented on CT, is described. While paradoxical emboli are not infrequently diagnosed clinically on a presumptive basis, it is rare to document them with imaging such as CT which, in the present case, confirmed the diagnosis. Copyright (2001) Blackwell Science Pty Ltd

  3. System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krantz, E.A.; Russell, K.D.; Stewart, H.D.; Van Siclen, V.S.

    1986-01-01

    Utilization of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) related information in the day-to-day operation of plant systems has, in the past, been impracticable due to the size of the computers needed to run PRA codes. This paper discusses a microcomputer-based database system which can greatly enhance the capability of operators or regulators to incorporate PRA methodologies into their routine decision making. This system is called the System Analysis and Risk Assessment (SARA) system. SARA was developed by EG and G Idaho, Inc. at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory to facilitate the study of frequency and consequence analyses of accident sequences from a large number of light water reactors (LWRs) in this country. This information is being amassed by several studies sponsored by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC). To meet the need of portability and accessibility, and to perform the variety of calculations necessary, it was felt that a microcomputer-based system would be most suitable

  4. The happiness paradox

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bollen, Johan; Gonçalves, Bruno; Leemput, van de Ingrid; Ruan, Guangchen

    2017-01-01

    Most individuals in social networks experience a so-called Friendship Paradox: they are less popular than their friends on average. This effect may explain recent findings that widespread social network media use leads to reduced happiness. However the relation between popularity and happiness is

  5. Paradoxes of unstable electron

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okun, L.B.; Zeldovich, Ya.B.

    1978-01-01

    The hypothesis that electron is unstable - when it is consistent with the vanishing mass of the photon- leads to a number of paradoxical statements. The lifetime of the electron is determined by emission of a huge number of longitudinal photons and exponentially depends on the amount of emitted energy. This suggests to discuss searches for charge nonconservation in experiments with high energy particles

  6. The Paradox of Analogy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Botting

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available I will show that there is a type of analogical reasoning that instantiates a pattern of reasoning in confirmation theory that is considered at best paradoxical and at worst fatal to the entire syntactical approach to confirmation and explanation. However, I hope to elaborate conditions under which this is a sound (although not necessarily strong method of reasoning.

  7. New physics and paradox

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van der Spuy, E.

    1983-01-01

    Conflict between the finite and infinite in theoretical physics often results in paradox. By measuring phenomena for which such conflict exists, physicists may be able to discover in each case the basis of the conflict and thus may eventually reformulate physical laws

  8. The Amazon's energetic paradox

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, Marcos Vinicius Miranda da; Bermann, Celio

    1999-01-01

    The main energy sources in Amazon region are hydroelectric, biomass, and natural gas. Although abundance of these resources, the energy consumption in this region is one of the most low of Brazil. The article overviews this paradox. In this context, economical, geopolitical, and technical aspects are presented

  9. The nuclear paradox

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eibenschutz, J.

    1989-01-01

    In this work it is discussed the nuclear paradox. One side, the nuclear power is important for technological development, on the other hand, it has been frequently questioned by society. It is pointed out as well, that many other factors are more dangerous to man such as environment polution. (A.C.A.S.)

  10. The Hydrostatic Paradox.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Alpha E.

    1995-01-01

    Presents an example demonstrating the quantitative resolution of the hydrostatic paradox which is the realization that the force due to fluid pressure on the bottom of a vessel can be considerably greater or considerably less than the weight of the fluid in the vessel. (JRH)

  11. A Hydrostatic Paradox Revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganci, Salvatore

    2012-01-01

    This paper revisits a well-known hydrostatic paradox, observed when turning upside down a glass partially filled with water and covered with a sheet of light material. The phenomenon is studied in its most general form by including the mass of the cover. A historical survey of this experiment shows that a common misunderstanding of the phenomenon…

  12. Spin entanglement, decoherence and Bohm's EPR paradox.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavalcanti, E G; Drummond, P D; Bachor, H A; Reid, M D

    2009-10-12

    We obtain criteria for entanglement and the EPR paradox for spin-entangled particles and analyse the effects of decoherence caused by absorption and state purity errors. For a two qubit photonic state, entanglement can occur for all transmission efficiencies. In this case, the state preparation purity must be above a threshold value. However, Bohm's spin EPR paradox can be achieved only above a critical level of loss. We calculate a required efficiency of 58%, which appears achievable with current quantum optical technologies. For a macroscopic number of particles prepared in a correlated state, spin entanglement and the EPR paradox can be demonstrated using our criteria for efficiencies eta > 1/3 and eta > 2/3 respectively. This indicates a surprising insensitivity to loss decoherence, in a macroscopic system of ultra-cold atoms or photons.

  13. Lymphoma risk in systemic lupus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bernatsky, Sasha; Ramsey-Goldman, Rosalind; Joseph, Lawrence

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To examine disease activity versus treatment as lymphoma risk factors in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). METHODS: We performed case-cohort analyses within a multisite SLE cohort. Cancers were ascertained by regional registry linkages. Adjusted HRs for lymphoma were generated...

  14. Paradoxical psychotherapy in a case of transvestism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cliffe, M J

    1987-09-01

    Paradoxical psychotherapy succeeded in removing the compulsive element and reducing the guilt attached to transvestism in a male transvestite patient. Cross-dressing at home became acceptable to him and the temptation to cross-dress in public ended. Data suggested three independent motivational systems in this patient.

  15. On a paradox of probability theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stuart, C.I.J.M.

    1989-01-01

    Costa de Beauregard's proposal concerning physical retrocausality has been shown to fail on two crucial points. However, it is argued that his proposal still merits serious attention. The argument arises from showing that his proposal reveals a paradox involving relations between conditional probabilities, statistical correlations and reciprocal causalities of the type exhibited by cooperative dynamics in physical systems. 4 refs. (Author)

  16. The Paradoxes of Liberalism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thompson, Grahame

    2011-01-01

    Jakob Vestergaard has produced one of the most telling analyses of the international financial architecture by deploying a broadly Foucauldian framework that invokes a novel description of neo-liberal governance, one organized around discipline, conditional exceptions and the pursuit of a ‘proper...... economy’. This review both welcomes but challenges some of Vestergaard's analysis. In so doing it explores further the paradoxes of liberalism and the fate of sovereignty in the current international context....

  17. Introduction, Copyright's Paradox

    OpenAIRE

    Netanel, Neil

    2008-01-01

    The United States Supreme Court famously labeled copyright “the engine of free expression” because it provides a vital economic incentive for much of the literature, commentary, music, art, and film that makes up our public discourse. Yet today’s greatly expanded copyright law often does the opposite—it can be used to quash news reporting, political commentary, church dissent, historical scholarship, cultural critique, and artistic expression. In Copyright’s Paradox, Neil Weinstock ...

  18. Paradoxes of maternal mourning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brice, C W

    1991-02-01

    It has been customary to conceptualize mourning as a phasic or stage phenomenon (Lindemann 1944; Parkes 1972; Bowlby 1980; Knapp 1986). Such a conceptualization has proved to be of tremendous didactic value, especially in terms of succinctly organizing and communicating the major affects, behaviors, and reactions of mourning. It is, however, my belief, based upon clinical experience with many forms of bereavement, that the phenomenon of mourning is not comprised of clearly delineated stages and phases. I have come to conceptualize the phenomenon of mourning the death of a loved person as involving the bereaved's struggle with a series of more or less unresolvable paradoxes rather than as a progression through stages that possess relatively distinct and predictable beginning and ending points. The specific paradoxes encountered by a bereaved person differ, of course, in accordance with the relationship that was lost (mother, father, spouse, child, or sibling), the developmental stage of the bereaved (childhood, adolescence, adulthood, or maturity), the type of death (sudden or prolonged), and the cause of death (illness, murder, suicide, or accident). In this paper, I will address those paradoxes that seem specific to maternal mourning - that is, to mothers who are mourning the death of a child.

  19. An alternative resolution to the Mansuripur paradox

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redfern, Francis

    2016-04-01

    In 2013 an article published online by the journal Science declared that the paradox proposed by Masud Mansuripur was resolved. This paradox concerns a point charge-Amperian magnetic dipole system as seen in a frame of reference where they are at rest and one in which they are moving. In the latter frame an electric dipole appears on the magnetic dipole. A torque is then exerted upon the electric dipole by the point charge, a torque that is not observed in the at-rest frame. Mansuripur points out this violates the relativity principle and suggests the Lorentz force responsible for the torque be replaced by the Einstein-Laub force. The resolution of the paradox reported by Science, based on numerous papers in the physics literature, preserves the Lorentz force but depends on the concept of hidden momentum. Here I propose a different resolution based on the overlooked fact that the charge-magnetic dipole system contains linear and angular electromagnetic field momentum. The time rate of change of the field angular-momentum in the frame through which the system is moving cancels that due to the charge-electric dipole interaction. From this point of view hidden momentum is not needed in the resolution of the paradox.

  20. An alternative resolution to the Mansuripur paradox

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Redfern, Francis

    2016-01-01

    In 2013 an article published online by the journal Science declared that the paradox proposed by Masud Mansuripur was resolved. This paradox concerns a point charge-Amperian magnetic dipole system as seen in a frame of reference where they are at rest and one in which they are moving. In the latter frame an electric dipole appears on the magnetic dipole. A torque is then exerted upon the electric dipole by the point charge, a torque that is not observed in the at-rest frame. Mansuripur points out this violates the relativity principle and suggests the Lorentz force responsible for the torque be replaced by the Einstein–Laub force. The resolution of the paradox reported by Science, based on numerous papers in the physics literature, preserves the Lorentz force but depends on the concept of hidden momentum. Here I propose a different resolution based on the overlooked fact that the charge-magnetic dipole system contains linear and angular electromagnetic field momentum. The time rate of change of the field angular–momentum in the frame through which the system is moving cancels that due to the charge-electric dipole interaction. From this point of view hidden momentum is not needed in the resolution of the paradox. (paper)

  1. Risk management and energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlevaro, F.; Romerio, F.

    1992-01-01

    In five sessions the following topics were dealt with: risk problems, risk analysis and evaluation tools, risks in industrial societies, risks of energy production, technological risks, ethics and political-social consensus. figs., tabs., refs

  2. Paradoxes and Innovation in Family Firms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ingram, Amy E.; Lewis, Marianne W.; Barton, Sid

    2016-01-01

    thinkers are more likely to manage these tensions and fuel innovative behavior. Leveraging family business and organizational paradox literatures, this multi-stage exploratory study develops measures of paradoxical tensions and paradoxical thinking in family firms, and tests these propositions. Findings...... indicate that paradoxical tensions may stymie innovative behavior, but that leaders' paradoxical thinking is positively related to innovative behavior....

  3. Einstein and the twin paradox

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pesic, Peter

    2003-01-01

    Einstein was the first to discuss and resolve the 'twin paradox', which in 1905 he did not consider paradoxical and treated as a consequence of lack of simultaneity. He maintained this view until at least 1914. However, in 1918 Einstein brought forward arguments about accelerated frames of reference that tended to overshadow his initial resolution. His earlier arguments were gradually rediscovered during the subsequent controversy about this 'paradox'

  4. Comment on the extinct paradox

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levine, D.M.

    1983-11-01

    The extinction paradox is a contradiction between geometrical optics results which predict that at high frequencies the scattering cross section of an object should equal its geometrical cross section and rigorous scattering theory which shows that at high frequencies the scattering cross section approaches twice the geometrical cross section of the object. Confusion about the reason for this paradox persists today even though the nature of the paradox was correctly identified many years ago by Brillouin. The resolution of the paradox is restated and illustrated with an example, and then the implications to the interpretation of scattering cross sections are identified

  5. Simpson's Paradox, Lord's Paradox, and Suppression Effects are the same phenomenon – the reversal paradox

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gunnell David

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract This article discusses three statistical paradoxes that pervade epidemiological research: Simpson's paradox, Lord's paradox, and suppression. These paradoxes have important implications for the interpretation of evidence from observational studies. This article uses hypothetical scenarios to illustrate how the three paradoxes are different manifestations of one phenomenon – the reversal paradox – depending on whether the outcome and explanatory variables are categorical, continuous or a combination of both; this renders the issues and remedies for any one to be similar for all three. Although the three statistical paradoxes occur in different types of variables, they share the same characteristic: the association between two variables can be reversed, diminished, or enhanced when another variable is statistically controlled for. Understanding the concepts and theory behind these paradoxes provides insights into some controversial or contradictory research findings. These paradoxes show that prior knowledge and underlying causal theory play an important role in the statistical modelling of epidemiological data, where incorrect use of statistical models might produce consistent, replicable, yet erroneous results.

  6. Moving towards a geocentric, polycultural theory of organizational paradox

    OpenAIRE

    Keller, J.; Lewis, M. W.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose\\ud This paper comments on “Global implications of the indigenous epistemological system from the east” (Li, 2016), which provides an indigenous Chinese perspective on organizational paradox. Li introduces Yin-Yang balancing as an epistemological system that can help scholars examine and practitioners manage paradoxes. In this commentary, the purpose of this paper is to discuss the merits of Yin-Yang balancing and how this approach and other indigenous theories might enrich organizatio...

  7. Systemic risk contributions: a credit portfolio approach

    OpenAIRE

    Düllmann, Klaus; Puzanova, Natalia

    2011-01-01

    We put forward a Merton-type multi-factor portfolio model for assessing banks' contributions to systemic risk. This model accounts for the major drivers of banks' systemic relevance: size, default risk and correlation of banks' assets as a proxy for interconnectedness. We measure systemic risk in terms of the portfolio expected shortfall (ES). Banks' (marginal) risk contributions are calculated based on partial derivatives of the ES in order to ensure a full risk allocation among institutions...

  8. The social dominance paradox.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Jennifer Louise; den Ouden, Hanneke E M; Heyes, Cecilia M; Cools, Roshan

    2014-12-01

    Dominant individuals report high levels of self-sufficiency, self-esteem, and authoritarianism. The lay stereotype suggests that such individuals ignore information from others, preferring to make their own choices. However, the nonhuman animal literature presents a conflicting view, suggesting that dominant individuals are avid social learners, whereas subordinates focus on learning from private experience. Whether dominant humans are best characterized by the lay stereotype or the animal view is currently unknown. Here, we present a "social dominance paradox": using self-report scales and computerized tasks, we demonstrate that socially dominant people explicitly value independence, but, paradoxically, in a complex decision-making task, they show an enhanced reliance (relative to subordinate individuals) on social learning. More specifically, socially dominant people employed a strategy of copying other agents when the agents' responses had a history of being correct. However, in humans, two subtypes of dominance have been identified: aggressive and social. Aggressively dominant individuals, who are as likely to "get their own way" as socially dominant individuals but who do so through the use of aggressive or Machiavellian tactics, did not use social information, even when it was beneficial to do so. This paper presents the first study of dominance and social learning in humans and challenges the lay stereotype in which all dominant individuals ignore others' views. The more subtle perspective we offer could have important implications for decision making in both the boardroom and the classroom. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. The Paradox of Openness

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laursen, Keld; Salter, Ammon

    2014-01-01

    To innovate, firms often need to draw from, and collaborate with, a large number of actors from outside their organization. At the same time, firms need also to be focused on capturing the returns from their innovative ideas. This gives rise to a paradox of openness—the creation of innovations of...... or collaborate with competitors. We explore the implications of these findings for the literature on open innovation and innovation strategy.......To innovate, firms often need to draw from, and collaborate with, a large number of actors from outside their organization. At the same time, firms need also to be focused on capturing the returns from their innovative ideas. This gives rise to a paradox of openness—the creation of innovations...... often requires openness, but the commercialization of innovations requires protection. Based on econometric analysis of data from a UK innovation survey, we find a concave relationship between firms’ breadth of external search and formal collaboration for innovation, and the strength of the firms...

  10. CDC Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) is a state-based system of health surveys that collects information on health risk behaviors, preventive...

  11. A Paraconsistentist Approach to Chisholm's Paradox

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcelo Esteban Coniglio

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available The Logics of Deontic (InConsistency (LDI’s can be considered as the deontic counterpart of the paraconsistent logics known as Logics of Formal (InConsistency. This paper introduces and studies new LDI’s and other paraconsistent deontic logics with different properties: systems tolerant to contradictory obligations; systems in which contradictory obligations trivialize; and a bimodal paraconsistent deontic logic combining the features of previous systems. These logics are used to analyze the well-known Chisholm’s paradox, taking profit of the fact that, besides contradictory obligations do not trivialize in LDI’s, several logical dependencies of classical logic are blocked in the context of LDI’s, allowing to dissolve the paradox.

  12. Assessing the role of detrital zircon sorting on provenance interpretations in an ancient fluvial system using paleohydraulics - Permian Cutler Group, Paradox Basin, Utah and Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Findlay, C. P., III; Ewing, R. C.; Perez, N. D.

    2017-12-01

    Detrital zircon age signatures used in provenance studies are assumed to be representative of entire catchments from which the sediment was derived, but the extent to which hydraulic sorting can bias provenance interpretations is poorly constrained. Sediment and mineral sorting occurs with changes in hydraulic conditions driven by both allogenic and autogenic processes. Zircon is sorted from less dense minerals due to the difference in density, and any age dependence on zircon size could potentially bias provenance interpretations. In this study, a coupled paleohydraulic and geochemical provenance approach is used to identify changes in paleohydraulic conditions and relate them to spatial variations in provenance signatures from samples collected along an approximately time-correlative source-to-sink pathway in the Permian Cutler Group of the Paradox Basin. Samples proximal to the uplift have a paleoflow direction to the southwest. In the medial basin, paleocurrent direction indicates salt movement caused fluvial pathways divert to the north and northwest on the flanks of anticlines. Channel depth, flow velocity, and discharge calculations were derived from field measurements of grain size and dune and bar cross-stratification indicate that competency of the fluvial system decreased from proximal to the medial basin by up to a factor of 12. Based upon the paleohydraulic calculations, zircon size fractionation would occur along the transect such that the larger zircons are removed from the system prior to reaching the medial basin. Analysis of the size and age distribution of zircons from the proximal and distal fluvial system of the Cutler Group tests if this hydraulic sorting affects the expected Uncompahgre Uplift age distribution.

  13. The obesity paradox and osteoporosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fassio, Angelo; Idolazzi, Luca; Rossini, Maurizio; Gatti, Davide; Adami, Giovanni; Giollo, Alessandro; Viapiana, Ombretta

    2018-06-01

    Overweight and obesity according to the definition of the WHO are considered as an abnormal or excessive fat accumulation that may impair health. Studies comparing fracture incidence in obese and non-obese individuals have demonstrated that obesity, defined on the basis of body mass index (BMI), is associated with increased risk of fracture at some sites but seems to be protective at others. The results of the studies are influenced by the distribution of BMI in the population studied; for example, in cohorts with a low prevalence of obesity, a predilection for certain fracture sites in obese individuals becomes difficult to detect, whereas, in populations with a high prevalence of obesity, previously unreported associations may emerge. Furthermore, obesity can bring with itself many complications (Type 2 diabetes mellitus, vitamin D deficiency, and motor disability) which, in the long run, can have a definite influence in terms of overall risk and quality of life, as well. This is a narrative review focusing on the relationship between bone metabolism and overweight/obesity and dealing with the fundamental dilemma of a disease (obesity) apparently associated with improved values of bone mineral density, part of a complicated relationship which revolves around obesity called "the obesity paradox".

  14. A Resolution of the Paradox of Enrichment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Z. C.; Li, Y. Charles

    2015-06-01

    The paradox of enrichment was observed by Rosenzweig [1971] in a class of predator-prey models. Two of the parameters in the models are crucial for the paradox. These two parameters are the prey's carrying capacity and prey's half-saturation for predation. Intuitively, increasing the carrying capacity due to enrichment of the prey's environment should lead to a more stable predator-prey system. Analytically, it turns out that increasing the carrying capacity always leads to an unstable predator-prey system that is susceptible to extinction from environmental random perturbations. This is the so-called paradox of enrichment. Our resolution here rests upon a closer investigation on a dimensionless number H formed from the carrying capacity and the prey's half-saturation. By recasting the models into dimensionless forms, the models are in fact governed by a few dimensionless numbers including H. The effects of the two parameters: carrying capacity and half-saturation are incorporated into the number H. In fact, increasing the carrying capacity is equivalent (i.e. has the same effect on H) to decreasing the half-saturation which implies more aggressive predation. Since there is no paradox between more aggressive predation and instability of the predator-prey system, the paradox of enrichment is resolved. The so-called instability of the predator-prey system is characterized by the existence of a stable limit cycle in the phase plane, which gets closer and closer to the predator axis and prey axis. Due to random environmental perturbations, this can lead to extinction. We also further explore spatially dependent models for which the phase space is infinite-dimensional. The spatially independent limit cycle which is generated by a Hopf bifurcation from an unstable steady state, is linearly stable in the infinite-dimensional phase space. Numerical simulations indicate that the basin of attraction of the limit cycle is riddled. This shows that spatial perturbations can

  15. Tank waste remediation system risk management list

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collard, L.B.

    1995-01-01

    The Tank Waste Remedation System (TWRS) Risk Management List and it's subset of critical risks, the Critical Risk Management List, provide a tool to senior RL and WHC management (Level-1 and -2) to manage programmatic risks that may significantly impact the TWRS program. The programmatic risks include cost, schedule, and performance risks. Performance risk includes technical risk, supportability risk (such as maintainability and availability), and external risk (i.e., beyond program control, for example, changes in regulations). The risk information includes a description, its impacts, as evaluation of the likelihood, consequences and risk value, possible mitigating actions, and responsible RL and WHC managers. The issues that typically form the basis for the risks are presented in a separate table and the affected functions are provided on the management lists

  16. Extensitivity of entropy and modern form of Gibbs paradox

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Home, D.; Sengupta, S.

    1981-01-01

    The extensivity property of entropy is clarified in the light of a critical examination of the entropy formula based on quantum statistics and the relevant thermodynamic requirement. The modern form of the Gibbs paradox, related to the discontinuous jump in entropy due to identity or non-identity of particles, is critically investigated. Qualitative framework of a new resolution of this paradox, which analyses the general effect of distinction mark on the Hamiltonian of a system of identical particles, is outlined. (author)

  17. Mimesis, fiction, paradoxes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Françoise Lavocat

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Les théories contemporaines de la fiction, comme les poétiques de la Renaissance, privilégient une conception de la mimesis fondée sur la vraisemblance : la démonstration du profit cognitif et moral de la fiction passe toujours par une définition de l’imitation (de quelque façon qu’on la définisse fondée sur la rationalité. L’auteur de cet article examine tout d’abord le statut des contradictions et de l’impossible chez quelques théoriciens actuels (principalement J.-M. Schaeffer, M.-L. Ryan, L. Doležel et poéticiens du 16e siècle (L. Castelvetro et F. Patrizi. Sont ensuite étudiées la forme et la fonction que prend l’impossible dans trois fictions narratives de la Renaissance. L’hypothèse majeure qui est défendue est que ces paradoxes permettent de penser le non-existant, dans la continuité de la scolastique médiévale et en relation avec une problématique religieuse, sérieuse ou parodique. Par là même, et en raison de leur auto-référentialité constitutive, les paradoxes inscrivent dans la fiction une réflexion sur elle-même qui n’a rien d’une apologie. La pensée de la fiction s’articule en définitive de façon bien différente dans les théories et dans les fictions elles-mêmes.Like Renaissance poetics, contemporary theories of fiction do favour a conception of mimesis based on likelihood. In order to underscore the benefits of fiction, in terms of cognition or ethics, both ancient and present-day authors usually identify imitation (however this is understood as a kind of rationality. The aim of this article is to question the status of contradictions and impossibilities, first in current theories of fiction (J-M Schaeffer, M.-L. Ryan, L. Doležel, then in two sixteenth century comments of Aristotle (by L. Castelvetro and F. Patrizi. In the following steps, forms and functions of the impossible are studied in three narratives of the Renaissance. The main hypothesis here is the following: in

  18. Paradoxes in aerohydrodynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Yershin, Shakhbaz A

    2017-01-01

    This book, on the general topic of hydroaerodynamics, investigates a number of exciting applications in this field, addressing specifically issues that allow seemingly paradoxical issues to be dealt with. The first part is devoted to the study of channel flows, in particular the lateral flow of a viscous and viscous-plastic liquid in a ring channel formed by coaxial cylinders. Specifically, the problem of dissipation of mechanical energy in channel flows of highly viscous liquids is addressed and solved. Furthermore, the mechanism leading to hydrodynamic erosion in intra-field pipelines (known as "channelized effect") is identified. Subsequently, a theory for channel flows with mass transfer through porous walls is developed. In the second part, viscous liquid free flows (jets) are investigated. In particular, a dispersion law for turbulent flow is derived and the existence of dynamic invariance in wake flows of variable density is demonstrated. The third part presents new insights from both theoretical and e...

  19. Paradox in CSR Practice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rana, Mohammad Bakhtiar; Jokela, Paivi

    2017-01-01

    legitimacy. Balancing between the two goals depends on the nature of governance, management and organizational structure, which ensures its effectiveness in practice. We argue that ambidexterity is possible when firm’s ownership and management realizes CSR philosophy, which typically optimizes both social...... process because it would take into account the multiple stakeholders expectations. MNE subsidiary therefore should develop a governance mechanism that is compatible to the complex organizational and ownership structure across the global operations and supporting ROS mechanism. Developing compatible......Despite extensive corporate responsibility activities (CSR), MNE Subsidiaries often fail to meet stakeholders expectations; not only that they often violate laws, regulations, thus the paradoxical conditions arise from the simultaneous application of CSR and the violations of institutional...

  20. The Scenario Planning Paradox

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spaniol, Matthew Jon; Rowland, Nicholas James

    2017-01-01

    planning paradox. Contributing fresh theory supposedly attends to the “dismal” state of theory, while contributing new typologies purportedly helps bring order to methodological chaos. Repeated over time, the contribution strategy breaks down. Effort to resolve the theoretical and methodological issue......, foundational theoretical perspective in futures studies. Perceived chaos gives way to typologies, which, as they mount, contribute to the chaos they were meant to resolve. The end result, intended by no one, is that theory remains dismal and methods remain chaotic. This direction for the field is indefensible......For more than a decade, futures studies scholars have prefaced scholarly contributions by repeating the claim that there is insufficient theory to support chaotic scenario methodology. The strategy is formulaic, and the net effect is a curious one, which the authors refer to as the scenario...

  1. Rotating model for the equivalence principle paradox

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilkins, D.C.

    1975-01-01

    An idealized system is described in which two inertial frames rotate relative to one another. When a (scalar) dipole is locally at rest in one frame, a paradox arises as to whether or not it will radiate. Fluxes of energy and angular momentum and the time development of the system are discussed. Resolution of the paradox involves several unusual features, including (i) radiation by an unmoving charge, an effect discussed by Chitre, Price, and Sandberg, (ii) different power seen by relatively accelerated inertial observers, and (iii) radiation reaction due to gravitational backscattering of radiation, in agreement with the work of C. and B. DeWitt. These results are obtained, for the most part, without the complications of curved space--time

  2. Seventy Years of the EPR Paradox

    OpenAIRE

    Kupczynski, Marian

    2007-01-01

    In spite of the fact that statistical predictions of quantum theory (QT) can only be tested if large amount of data is available a claim has been made that QT provides the most complete description of an individual physical system. Einstein's opposition to this claim and the paradox he presented in the article written together with Podolsky and Rosen in 1935 inspired generations of physicists in their quest for better understanding of QT. Seventy years after EPR article it is clear that witho...

  3. Greenberger-Horne-Zeilinger paradoxes from qudit graph states.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Weidong; Yu, Sixia; Oh, C H

    2013-03-08

    One fascinating way of revealing quantum nonlocality is the all-versus-nothing test due to Greenberger, Horne, and Zeilinger (GHZ) known as the GHZ paradox. So far genuine multipartite and multilevel GHZ paradoxes are known to exist only in systems containing an odd number of particles. Here we shall construct GHZ paradoxes for an arbitrary number (greater than 3) of particles with the help of qudit graph states on a special kind of graphs, called GHZ graphs. Furthermore, based on the GHZ paradox arising from a GHZ graph, we derive a Bell inequality with two d-outcome observables for each observer, whose maximal violation attained by the corresponding graph state, and a Kochen-Specker inequality testing the quantum contextuality in a state-independent fashion.

  4. A paradoxical improvement of misreaching in optic ataxia: new evidence for two separate neural systems for visual localization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milner, A D; Paulignan, Y; Dijkerman, H C; Michel, F; Jeannerod, M

    1999-11-07

    We tested a patient (A. T.) with bilateral brain damage to the parietal lobes, whose resulting 'optic ataxia' causes her to make large pointing errors when asked to locate single light emitting diodes presented in her visual field. We report here that, unlike normal individuals, A. T.'s pointing accuracy improved when she was required to wait for 5 s before responding. This counter-intuitive result is interpreted as reflecting the very brief time-scale on which visuomotor control systems in the superior parietal lobe operate. When an immediate response was required, A. T.'s damaged visuomotor system caused her to make large errors; but when a delay was required, a different, more flexible, visuospatial coding system--presumably relatively intact in her brain--came into play, resulting in much more accurate responses. The data are consistent with a dual processing theory whereby motor responses made directly to visual stimuli are guided by a dedicated system in the superior parietal and premotor cortices, while responses to remembered stimuli depend on perceptual processing and may thus crucially involve processing within the temporal neocortex.

  5. Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS) monitors 6 types of health-risk behaviors that contribute to the leading causes of death and disability among...

  6. Explaining the harmonic sequence paradox.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Ulrich; Zimper, Alexander

    2012-05-01

    According to the harmonic sequence paradox, an expected utility decision maker's willingness to pay for a gamble whose expected payoffs evolve according to the harmonic series is finite if and only if his marginal utility of additional income becomes zero for rather low payoff levels. Since the assumption of zero marginal utility is implausible for finite payoff levels, expected utility theory - as well as its standard generalizations such as cumulative prospect theory - are apparently unable to explain a finite willingness to pay. This paper presents first an experimental study of the harmonic sequence paradox. Additionally, it demonstrates that the theoretical argument of the harmonic sequence paradox only applies to time-patient decision makers, whereas the paradox is easily avoided if time-impatience is introduced. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.

  7. Adaptationism fails to resolve Fermi's paradox

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ćirković Milan M.

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available One of the most interesting problems in the nascent discipline of astrobiology is more than half-century old Fermi's paradox: why, considering extraordinary young age of Earth and the Solar System in the Galactic context, don't we perceive much older intelligent communities or signposts of their activity? In spite of a vigorous research activity in recent years, especially bolstered by successes of astrobiology in finding extrasolar planets and extremophiles, this problem (also known as the "Great Silence" or "astrosociological" paradox remains as open as ever. In a previous paper, we have discussed a particular evolutionary solution suggested by Karl Schroeder based on the currently dominant evolutionary doctrine of adaptationism. Here, we extend that discussion with emphasis on the problems such a solution is bound to face, and conclude that it is ultimately quite unlikely. .

  8. The dissolver paradox as a coupled fast-thermal reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lutz, H.F.; Webb, P.S.

    1993-05-01

    The dissolver paradox is treated as coupled fast-thermal reactors. Each reactor is sub-critical but the coupling is sufficient to form a critical system. The practical importance of the system occurs when the fast system by itself is mass limited and the thermal system by itself is volume limited. Numerous 1D calculations have been made to calculate the neutron multiplication parameters of the separate fast and thermal systems that occur in the dissolver paradox. A model has been developed to describe the coupling between the systems. Monte Carlo calculations using the MCNP code have tested the model

  9. New paradoxes in intertemporal choice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li-Lin Rao

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Similar to research on risky choice, the traditional analysis of intertemporal choice takes the view that an individual behaves so as to maximize the discounted sum of all future utilities. The well-known Allais paradox contradicts the fundamental postulates of maximizing the expected value or utility of a risky option. We describe a violation of the law of diminishing marginal utility as well as an intertemporal version of the Allais paradox.

  10. Consciousness and the "Causal Paradox"

    OpenAIRE

    Velmans, Max

    1996-01-01

    Viewed from a first-person perspective consciousness appears to be necessary for complex, novel human activity - but viewed from a third-person perspective consciousness appears to play no role in the activity of brains, producing a "causal paradox". To resolve this paradox one needs to distinguish consciousness of processing from consciousness accompanying processing or causing processing. Accounts of consciousness/brain causal interactions switch between first- and third-person perspectives...

  11. Paradoxical therapy in conversion disorder

    OpenAIRE

    ATAOĞLU, Ahmet

    1998-01-01

    Paradoxical therapy consists of suggesting that the patient intentionally engages in the unwanted behaviour, such as performing complusive ritual or bringing on a conversion attack. In this study paradoxical intention (PI) was used with to half of the patients with conversion disorders, while the other half were treated with diazepam in order to examine the efficiency of the PI versus diazepam in conversion disorder. Patients treated with PI appeared to have a greater improvement r...

  12. The Statistical Fermi Paradox

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maccone, C.

    In this paper is provided the statistical generalization of the Fermi paradox. The statistics of habitable planets may be based on a set of ten (and possibly more) astrobiological requirements first pointed out by Stephen H. Dole in his book Habitable planets for man (1964). The statistical generalization of the original and by now too simplistic Dole equation is provided by replacing a product of ten positive numbers by the product of ten positive random variables. This is denoted the SEH, an acronym standing for “Statistical Equation for Habitables”. The proof in this paper is based on the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) of Statistics, stating that the sum of any number of independent random variables, each of which may be ARBITRARILY distributed, approaches a Gaussian (i.e. normal) random variable (Lyapunov form of the CLT). It is then shown that: 1. The new random variable NHab, yielding the number of habitables (i.e. habitable planets) in the Galaxy, follows the log- normal distribution. By construction, the mean value of this log-normal distribution is the total number of habitable planets as given by the statistical Dole equation. 2. The ten (or more) astrobiological factors are now positive random variables. The probability distribution of each random variable may be arbitrary. The CLT in the so-called Lyapunov or Lindeberg forms (that both do not assume the factors to be identically distributed) allows for that. In other words, the CLT "translates" into the SEH by allowing an arbitrary probability distribution for each factor. This is both astrobiologically realistic and useful for any further investigations. 3. By applying the SEH it is shown that the (average) distance between any two nearby habitable planets in the Galaxy may be shown to be inversely proportional to the cubic root of NHab. This distance is denoted by new random variable D. The relevant probability density function is derived, which was named the "Maccone distribution" by Paul Davies in

  13. Tank waste remediation system risk management plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zimmerman, B.D.

    1998-01-01

    The purpose of the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Risk Management Plan is to describe a consistent approach to risk management such that TWRS Project risks are identified and managed to achieve TWRS Project success. The Risk Management Plan implements the requirements of the Tank Waste Remediation System Systems Engineering Management Plan in the area of risk management. Figure ES-1 shows the relationship of the TWRS Risk Management Plan to other major TWRS Project documents. As the figure indicates, the Risk Management Plan is a tool used to develop and control TWRS Project work. It provides guidance on how TWRS Project risks will be assessed, analyzed, and handled, and it specifies format and content for the risk management lists, which are a primary product of the risk management process. In many instances, the Risk Management Plan references the TWRS Risk Management Procedure, which provides more detailed discussion of many risk management activities. The TWRS Risk Management Plan describes an ongoing program within the TWRS Project. The Risk Management Plan also provides guidance in support of the TWRS Readiness To-Proceed (RTP) assessment package

  14. Liquidity policies and systemic risk

    OpenAIRE

    Adrian, Tobias; Boyarchenko, Nina

    2013-01-01

    The growth of wholesale-funded credit intermediation has motivated liquidity regulations. We analyze a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which liquidity and capital regulations interact with the supply of risk-free assets. In the model, the endogenously time-varying tightness of liquidity and capital constraints generates intermediaries’ leverage cycle, influencing the pricing of risk and the level of risk in the economy. Our analysis focuses on liquidity policies’ implications ...

  15. Evolving African attitudes to European education: Resistance, pervert effects of the single system paradox, and the ubuntu framework for renewal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assié-Lumumba, N'Dri Thérèse

    2016-02-01

    This paper is a reflection that critically examines the dynamics of education and the struggle by African people for freedom, control of the mind, self-definition and the right to determine their own destiny from the start of colonial rule to the present. The primary methodological approach is historical structuralism, which stipulates that social reality and facts are determined and created by social agents within structural and historical contingencies. It addresses some of the most powerful challenges and contradictions that explain the ineffectiveness of numerous post-independence reforms, and presents the arguments for relevance and use of African languages, for instance, that have been made since the 1960s. The first section of the paper deals with the colonial imperatives for setting new education systems in the colonised societies of Africa and the initial attitudes of the Africans towards colonial education. The second section critically examines the evolving meanings of Western education in Europeanising African societies, the articulation of their rationale and the mechanism for resistance. It analyses the turning point when Africans began to embrace European education and demand it in the colonial and post-independence era. The third section addresses the roots of the inadequacies of received post-colonial education and the imperative of deconstruction and re-appropriation of African education using an ubuntu framework for an African renewal.

  16. Software And Systems Engineering Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    RSKM 2004 COSO Enterprise RSKM Framework 2006 ISO/IEC 16085 Risk Management Process 2008 ISO/IEC 12207 Software Lifecycle Processes 2009 ISO/IEC...1 Software And Systems Engineering Risk Management John Walz VP Technical and Conferences Activities, IEEE Computer Society Vice-Chair Planning...Software & Systems Engineering Standards Committee, IEEE Computer Society US TAG to ISO TMB Risk Management Working Group Systems and Software

  17. Paradoxes of Visibility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tarnay László

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper investigates two possible critical arguments following the pictorial turn. The first is formulated within ocularcentrism, the dominance of sight, and starts with the right to visibility as a general principle that governs today’s digital culture but gets twisted in special cases like the Auschwitz photos of the Shoa, the Abu Ghraib prison videos, or recently the website called Yolocaust. The second is conceived outside the visual culture and is meant to vindicate the other senses vis-à-vis the eyes. However, the argument is truncated here only to highlight the boomerang effect of the other senses: haptic vision. It is the case of visual perception when (a there is a lack of things to see and (b indeterminate synaesthesia: when vision intensifies the other senses in the embodied viewer. The two arguments converge upon a dialectic of the visible and the imaginable, which is formulated here as two paradoxes that the discussed examples transcend. By enforcing visibility at all costs where there is hardly anything recognizable to see, they lead to two diverging results. On the one hand, the meaning of “image” is extended toward the unimaginable, the traumatic experience, on the other hand, it is extended toward the invisible, the encounter with the radical Other.

  18. Paradoxical consequences of prohibitions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheikh, Sana; Janoff-Bulman, Ronnie

    2013-08-01

    Explanations based in attribution theory claim that strong external controls such as parental restrictiveness and punishment undermine moral internalization. In contrast, 3 studies provide evidence that parental punishment does socialize morality, but of a particular sort: a morality focused on prohibitions (i.e., proscriptive orientation) rather than positive obligations (i.e., prescriptive orientation). Study 1 found young adults' accounts of parental restrictiveness and punishment activated their sensitivity to prohibitions and predicted a proscriptive orientation. Consistent with the greater potency of temptations for proscriptively oriented children, as well as past research linking shame to proscriptive morality, Study 2 found that restrictive parenting was also associated with greater suppression of temptations. Finally, Studies 3A and 3B found that suppressing these immoral thoughts is paradoxically harder for those with strong proscriptive orientations; more specifically, priming a proscriptive (versus prescriptive) orientation and inducing mental suppression of "immoral" thoughts led to the most ego depletion for those with restrictive parents. Overall, individuals who had restrictive parents had the lowest self-regulatory ability to resist their "immoral" temptations after prohibitions were activated. In contrast to common attributional explanations, these studies suggest that harsh external control by parents does not undercut moral socialization but rather undermines individuals' ability to resist temptation.

  19. NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

    2016-01-01

    NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

  20. On Hardy's paradox, weak measurements, and multitasking diagrams

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meglicki, Zdzislaw, E-mail: gustav@indiana.edu [Indiana University, Office of the Vice President for Information Technology, 601 E. Kirkwood Ave., Room 116, Bloomington, IN 47405-1223 (United States)

    2011-07-04

    We discuss Hardy's paradox and weak measurements by using multitasking diagrams, which are introduced to illustrate the progress of quantum probabilities through the double interferometer system. We explain how Hardy's paradox is avoided and elaborate on the outcome of weak measurements in this context. -- Highlights: → Hardy's paradox explained and eliminated. → Weak measurements: what is really measured? → Multitasking diagrams: introduced and used to discuss quantum mechanical processes.

  1. Laying the ghost of twin paradox

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Popović Marko

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Someone's true age is not written in his ID, but in his biomarkers. Aging process is not caused by time passing, but by thermodynamically laws. Entropy, extent of metabolic reaction, and temperature are Lorentz invariant, so these facts make twin paradox impossible because there is no way for one twin to age slower than the other even if the time in his frame is dilated. Entropy is the function of state, not time. So as much as standard thermodynamics concerns, the path between two points in space is equivalent to the path between two states. Whether the point B is reached by moving faster using the longer way (with time dilatation, or slower by using shortcut (without time dilatation, the state of the system after completing the road should be the same. This is supported by the fact that when two twins reach the same space-time point (point B in which the state parameters are the same. If we use entropy as an age parameter, then both twins have the same entropy value and are exactly the same biological age. Therefore, the twin paradox is a logical mistake based on wrong first premise. Bergson symmetry is not necessary any more to explain the impossibility of twin paradox.

  2. Systems approach to project risk management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kindinger, J. P. (John P.)

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes the need for better performance in the planning and execution of projects and examines the capabilities of two different project risk analysis methods for improving project performance. A quantitative approach based on concepts and tools adopted from the disciplines of systems analysis, probabilistic risk analysis, and other fields is advocated for managing risk in large and complex research & development projects. This paper also provides an overview of how this system analysis approach for project risk management is being used at Los Alamos National Laboratory along with examples of quantitative risk analysis results and their application to improve project performance.

  3. Unveiling the Mobile Learning Paradox.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mather, Carey; Cummings, Elizabeth

    2015-01-01

    A mobile learning paradox exists in Australian healthcare settings. Although it is increasingly acknowledged that timely, easy, and convenient access to health information using mobile learning technologies can enhance care and improve patient outcomes, currently there is an inability for nurses to access information at the point of care. Rapid growth in the use of mobile technology has created challenges for learning and teaching in the workplace. Easy access to educational resources via mobile devices challenges traditional strategies of knowledge and skill acquisition. Redesign of learning and teaching in the undergraduate curriculum and the development of policies to support the use of mobile learning at point of care is overdue. This study explored mobile learning opportunities used by clinical supervisors in tertiary and community-based facilities in two Australian States. Individual, organisation and systems level governance were sub-themes of professionalism that emerged as the main theme and impacts on learning and teaching in situ in healthcare environments. It is imperative healthcare work redesign includes learning and teaching that supports professional identity formation of students during work integrated learning.

  4. Paradoxical effect of aspirin on the growth of C6 rat glioma and on time of development of ENU-induced tumors of the nervous system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arrieta, O; Guevara, P; Reyes, S; Palencia, G; Rivera, E; Sotelo, J

    2001-11-01

    Administration of acetylsalicylic acid (ASA), an inhibitor of the synthesis of prostaglandins and thrombzoxanes, decreases the incidence of colorectal cancer and other neoplasms and inhibits in vitro some tumor growth. We studied the effect of various doses of ASA on the growth of C6 glioma implanted in rats as well as the effect of chronic administration of ASA on time of development and incidence of tumors of the central nervous system (CNS) induced by prenatal exposure to ethylnitrosourea (ENU). In a controlled study, various doses of ASA, 12.5, 25, 50, 100, 200, 300, and 400 mg/kg per day, were administered to Wistar rats in whom a subcutaneous C6 glioma had been transplanted. Changes in tumor size, histologic characteristics, mitotic index, cell proliferation, and vascular density were studied. In a parallel experiment, we administered ASA (70 mg/kg per day) to rats who were prenatally exposed to ENU; treatment started on day 50 of age, and continued until the end of the experiment at day 400. The time of tumor development as well as incidence, localization, and histological diagnosis were compared with matched controls. A paradoxical effect of ASA administration was observed on the dynamics of cell proliferation of C6 glioma. When high ASA doses were administered (200 or 400 mg/kg per day), tumor volume, cell proliferation, vascular density, and mitotic index increased. In contrast, when low doses were administered (12.5 or 25 mg/kg per day) the tumor size diminished. In the second experiment, localization and incidence of CNS tumors induced by ENU were similar in animals treated with ASA and in controls; however, in rats treated with ASA the time of tumor development was shortened. The growth-promoting effects of high doses of ASA found in the present study in both transplanted and chemically-induced brain tumors, might be due to the blockage of autocrine inhibitory factors dependent on the cyclooxygenase pathway or by increased vascular permeability and

  5. Impact Analysis for Risks in Informatics Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Baicu, Floarea; Baches, Maria Alexandra

    2013-01-01

    In this paper are presented methods of impact analysis on informatics system security accidents, qualitative and quantitative methods, starting with risk and informational system security definitions. It is presented the relationship between the risks of exploiting vulnerabilities of security system, security level of these informatics systems, probability of exploiting the weak points subject to financial losses of a company, respectively impact of a security accident on the company. Herewit...

  6. A catalog of information systems outsourcing risks

    OpenAIRE

    Soares, Filipe de Sá; Soares, Delfina de Sá; Arnaud, José

    2014-01-01

    Information systems outsourcing risks are a vital component in the decision and management process associated to the provision of information systems and technology services by a provider to a customer. Although there is a rich literature on information systems outsourcing risks, the accumulated knowledge on this area is fragmented. In view of this situation, an argument is put forward on the usefulness of having a theory that integrates the various constructs related to information systems o...

  7. Project risk management in complex petrochemical system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kirin Snežana

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Investigation of risk in complex industrial systems, as well as evaluation of main factors influencing decision making and implementation process using large petrochemical company as an example, has proved the importance of successful project risk management. This is even more emphasized when analyzing systems with complex structure, i.e. with several organizational units. It has been shown that successful risk management requires modern methods, based on adequate application of statistical analysis methods.

  8. A paradox for traffic dynamics in complex networks with ATIS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zheng Jianfeng; Gao Ziyou

    2008-01-01

    In this work, we study the statistical properties of traffic (e.g., vehicles) dynamics in complex networks, by introducing advanced transportation information systems (ATIS). The ATIS can provide the information of traffic flow pattern throughout the network and have an obvious effect on path routing strategy for such vehicles equipped with ATIS. The ATIS can be described by the understanding of link cost functions. Different indices such as efficiency and system total cost are discussed in depth. It is found that, for random networks (scale-free networks), the efficiency is effectively improved (decreased) if ATIS is properly equipped; however the system total cost is largely increased (decreased). It indicates that there exists a paradox between the efficiency and system total cost in complex networks. Furthermore, we report the simulation results by considering different kinds of link cost functions, and the paradox is recovered. Finally, we extend our traffic model, and also find the existence of the paradox

  9. Risk concepts and energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otway, H.J.

    1975-01-01

    Many countries are experiencing a period in which traditional values are being questioned; plans for further technological progress are being met by a variety of demands for a closer examination of the benefits and risks of large-scale technologies. In this paper the concepts of risk assessment are introduced and a model is proposed which illustrates the importance of socio-psychological mechanisms in the societal acceptance of technological risks. The research plan of the joint IAEA/IIASA Research Project is outlined: this work is directed toward gaining an improved understanding of how societies judge the acceptability of technologies and how societal attitudes and anticipated responses may be better integrated into the decision-making process. Some preliminary results are reported [fr

  10. Can Rose’s paradox be useful in crime prevention?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Mogens; Joshi, Heather

    2015-01-01

    Geoffrey Rose’s prevention paradox obtains when the majority of cases with an adverse outcome come from a population of low or moderate risk, and only a few from a minority ‘high risk’ group. Preventive treatment is then better targeted widely than on the ‘high risk’ minority. This study tests wh...

  11. Cancer risk in systemic lupus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bernatsky, Sasha; Ramsey-Goldman, Rosalind; Labrecque, Jeremy

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To update estimates of cancer risk in SLE relative to the general population. METHODS: A multisite international SLE cohort was linked with regional tumor registries. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated as the ratio of observed to expected cancers. RESULTS: Across 30 c...

  12. Endogenous network of firms and systemic risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Qianting; He, Jianmin; Li, Shouwei

    2018-02-01

    We construct an endogenous network characterized by commercial credit relationships connecting the upstream and downstream firms. Simulation results indicate that the endogenous network model displays a scale-free property which exists in real-world firm systems. In terms of the network structure, with the expansion of the scale of network nodes, the systemic risk increases significantly, while the heterogeneities of network nodes have no effect on systemic risk. As for firm micro-behaviors, including the selection range of trading partners, actual output, labor requirement, price of intermediate products and employee salaries, increase of all these parameters will lead to higher systemic risk.

  13. RAMS (Risk Analysis - Modular System) methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stenner, R.D.; Strenge, D.L.; Buck, J.W. [and others

    1996-10-01

    The Risk Analysis - Modular System (RAMS) was developed to serve as a broad scope risk analysis tool for the Risk Assessment of the Hanford Mission (RAHM) studies. The RAHM element provides risk analysis support for Hanford Strategic Analysis and Mission Planning activities. The RAHM also provides risk analysis support for the Hanford 10-Year Plan development activities. The RAMS tool draws from a collection of specifically designed databases and modular risk analysis methodologies and models. RAMS is a flexible modular system that can be focused on targeted risk analysis needs. It is specifically designed to address risks associated with overall strategy, technical alternative, and `what if` questions regarding the Hanford cleanup mission. RAMS is set up to address both near-term and long-term risk issues. Consistency is very important for any comparative risk analysis, and RAMS is designed to efficiently and consistently compare risks and produce risk reduction estimates. There is a wide range of output information that can be generated by RAMS. These outputs can be detailed by individual contaminants, waste forms, transport pathways, exposure scenarios, individuals, populations, etc. However, they can also be in rolled-up form to support high-level strategy decisions.

  14. The paradox of scientific expertise

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alrøe, Hugo Fjelsted; Noe, Egon

    2011-01-01

    Modern societies depend on a growing production of scientific knowledge, which is based on the functional differentiation of science into still more specialised scientific disciplines and subdisciplines. This is the basis for the paradox of scientific expertise: The growth of science leads to a f...... cross-disciplinary research and in the collective use of different kinds of scientific expertise, and thereby make society better able to solve complex, real-world problems.......Modern societies depend on a growing production of scientific knowledge, which is based on the functional differentiation of science into still more specialised scientific disciplines and subdisciplines. This is the basis for the paradox of scientific expertise: The growth of science leads...... to a fragmentation of scientific expertise. To resolve this paradox, the present paper investigates three hypotheses: 1) All scientific knowledge is perspectival. 2) The perspectival structure of science leads to specific forms of knowledge asymmetries. 3) Such perspectival knowledge asymmetries must be handled...

  15. The Architecture of Financial Risk Management Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iosif ZIMAN

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The architecture of systems dedicated to risk management is probably one of the more complex tasks to tackle in the world of finance. Financial risk has been at the center of attention since the explosive growth of financial markets and even more so after the 2008 financial crisis. At multiple levels, financial companies, financial regulatory bodies, governments and cross-national regulatory bodies, all have put the subject of financial risk in particular and the way it is calculated, managed, reported and monitored under intense scrutiny. As a result the technology underpinnings which support the implementation of financial risk systems has evolved considerably and has become one of the most complex areas involving systems and technology in the context of the financial industry. We present the main paradigms, require-ments and design considerations when undertaking the implementation of risk system and give examples of user requirements, sample product coverage and performance parameters.

  16. Analyzing Systemic Risk in the Chinese Banking System

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huang, Qiubin; de Haan, Jakob; Scholtens, Bert

    We examine systemic risk in the Chinese banking system by estimating the conditional value at risk (CoVaR), the marginal expected shortfall (MES), the systemic impact index (SII) and the vulnerability index (VI) for 16 listed banks in China. Although these measures show different patterns, our

  17. The Obesity Paradox and Cardiorespiratory Fitness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul A. McAuley

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Cardiorespiratory fitness as an explanation for the obesity paradox warrants further examination. We evaluated independent and joint associations of cardiorespiratory fitness and adiposity with all-cause mortality in 811 middle-aged (age, 53.3±7.2 years male never smokers without documented cardiopulmonary disease or diabetes from the Veterans Exercise Testing Study (VETS. Cardiorespiratory fitness was quantified in metabolic equivalents (METs using final treadmill speed and grade achieved on a maximal exercise test. Subjects were grouped for analysis by METs: unfit (lowest third and fit (upper two-thirds; and by body mass index (kg/m2: nonobese (18.5−29.9 and obese (≥30.0. Associations of baseline fitness and adiposity measures with all-cause mortality were determined by Cox proportional hazards analysis adjusted for age, ethnicity, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, family history of coronary artery disease, and cardiovascular medication use. In multivariate analysis, mortality risk for obese/fit men did not differ significantly from the nonobese/fit reference group. However, compared to the reference group, nonobese and obese unfit men were 2.2 (=0.01 and 1.9 (=0.03 times more likely to die, respectively. Cardiorespiratory fitness altered the obesity paradox such that mortality risk was lower for both obese and nonobese men who were fit.

  18. A catalog of information systems outsourcing risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filipe Sá-Soares

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Information systems outsourcing risks are a vital component in the decision and management process associated to the provision of information systems and technology services by a provider to a customer. Although there is a rich literature on information systems outsourcing risks, the accumulated knowledge on this area is fragmented. In view of this situation, an argument is put forward on the usefulness of having a theory that integrates the various constructs related to information systems outsourcing risks. This study aims to contribute towards the synthesis of that theory, by proposing a conceptual framework for interpreting the literature and presenting a catalog of information systems outsourcing risks. The conceptual framework articulates together six key risk elements, namely dangers, negative outcomes, undesirable consequences, factors and mitigation actions. The catalog condenses and categorizes the information systems outsourcing risk elements found on the literature reviewed, both from the perspective of the outsourcing customer and from the perspective of the outsourcing provider. Proposals for subsequent work towards the generation of the theory of information systems outsourcing risk are suggested.

  19. AngioVac Aspiration for Paradoxical Emboli Protection through a Fenestrated Fontan During Central Venous Thrombus Manipulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Al-Hakim, Ramsey, E-mail: ralhakim@mednet.ucla.edu [University of California, Department of Radiology, Division of Interventional Radiology (United States); Patel, Komal, E-mail: kdpatel@mednet.ucla.edu [University of California, Department of Anesthesiology, Division of Cardiothoracic Anesthesiology (United States); Moriarty, John M., E-mail: jmoriarty@mednet.ucla.edu [University of California, Department of Radiology, Division of Interventional Radiology (United States)

    2015-06-15

    This case reports describes a 39-year-old female with a history of surgically repaired hypoplastic left heart syndrome who presented with a left peripherally inserted central catheter (PICC) with associated large volume subclavian and brachiocephalic vein thrombus. Due to the presence of a right-to-left shunt via a fenestrated Fontan, there was clinical concern for a paradoxical embolism during removal of the PICC. The AngioVac aspiration system was successfully utilized to aspirate thromboemboli from the level of the proximal Glenn shunt during manipulation and removal of the PICC. This is the first reported case to demonstrate the safe and effective use of the AngioVac aspiration system for protection of paradoxical emboli through a cardiac right-to-left shunt during a procedure at high risk for thromboembolism.

  20. The Paradox of Precaution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bechmann, Gotthard [Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe Technik und Umwelt, Inst. fuer Technikfolgeabschaetzung und Systemanalyse (ITAS), Karlsruhe (Germany)], e-mail: bechmann@itas.fzk.de

    2009-12-15

    The precautionary principle cannot rid itself of risk. In the area of precaution it re-emerges as the risk of precaution. This is due to the fact that precaution is a disposition of the future which can only be decided in the medium of probability/lack of probability. With this type of calculation, we take advantage of the uncertainty of the future and at the same time our own uncertainty to make decisions in the present that can be confirmed or refuted by future states of the present. We will never reach the safe side since the future as future is inherently uncertain. If we take this realisation as a basis, we see that precaution does not mean creating a future free of risk or danger, but that the precautionary principle is a meta-rule how this basic uncertainty can be, and is, processed communicatively, i.e. at the societal level. On this topic a number of remarks: - There are no apodeictic judgements possible with respect to issues of the future, in particular when these are possible catastrophes. Whoever operates in such cases with true assertions disqualifies himself. As we know, this has ruined the political reputation of scientific experts. - We must further do without consensus on principles or on the priority of certain values. Negotiations on decisions must be formulated and understood in a way that they are compatible with a disagreement on principle. Current coordination is then more important than correspondence in the cognitive and evaluative foundations of the assessment of future. - Communication itself is better set up not as communicative action in the sense of Habermas, but on the contrary as strategic action under conditions of uncertainty, that is we have to stay aware that debates related to the future are social constructions and not true statements. - All in all, the demand for 'participation' should be downplayed in favour of strengthening the right to information in order to able to develop the largest possible number of

  1. The Paradox of Precaution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bechmann, Gotthard

    2009-12-01

    The precautionary principle cannot rid itself of risk. In the area of precaution it re-emerges as the risk of precaution. This is due to the fact that precaution is a disposition of the future which can only be decided in the medium of probability/lack of probability. With this type of calculation, we take advantage of the uncertainty of the future and at the same time our own uncertainty to make decisions in the present that can be confirmed or refuted by future states of the present. We will never reach the safe side since the future as future is inherently uncertain. If we take this realisation as a basis, we see that precaution does not mean creating a future free of risk or danger, but that the precautionary principle is a meta-rule how this basic uncertainty can be, and is, processed communicatively, i.e. at the societal level. On this topic a number of remarks: - There are no apodeictic judgements possible with respect to issues of the future, in particular when these are possible catastrophes. Whoever operates in such cases with true assertions disqualifies himself. As we know, this has ruined the political reputation of scientific experts. - We must further do without consensus on principles or on the priority of certain values. Negotiations on decisions must be formulated and understood in a way that they are compatible with a disagreement on principle. Current coordination is then more important than correspondence in the cognitive and evaluative foundations of the assessment of future. - Communication itself is better set up not as communicative action in the sense of Habermas, but on the contrary as strategic action under conditions of uncertainty, that is we have to stay aware that debates related to the future are social constructions and not true statements. - All in all, the demand for 'participation' should be downplayed in favour of strengthening the right to information in order to able to develop the largest possible number of constructs. - The

  2. The Paradox of Precaution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bechmann, Gotthard (Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe Technik und Umwelt, Inst. fuer Technikfolgeabschaetzung und Systemanalyse (ITAS), Karlsruhe (Germany)), e-mail: bechmann@itas.fzk.de

    2009-12-15

    The precautionary principle cannot rid itself of risk. In the area of precaution it re-emerges as the risk of precaution. This is due to the fact that precaution is a disposition of the future which can only be decided in the medium of probability/lack of probability. With this type of calculation, we take advantage of the uncertainty of the future and at the same time our own uncertainty to make decisions in the present that can be confirmed or refuted by future states of the present. We will never reach the safe side since the future as future is inherently uncertain. If we take this realisation as a basis, we see that precaution does not mean creating a future free of risk or danger, but that the precautionary principle is a meta-rule how this basic uncertainty can be, and is, processed communicatively, i.e. at the societal level. On this topic a number of remarks: - There are no apodeictic judgements possible with respect to issues of the future, in particular when these are possible catastrophes. Whoever operates in such cases with true assertions disqualifies himself. As we know, this has ruined the political reputation of scientific experts. - We must further do without consensus on principles or on the priority of certain values. Negotiations on decisions must be formulated and understood in a way that they are compatible with a disagreement on principle. Current coordination is then more important than correspondence in the cognitive and evaluative foundations of the assessment of future. - Communication itself is better set up not as communicative action in the sense of Habermas, but on the contrary as strategic action under conditions of uncertainty, that is we have to stay aware that debates related to the future are social constructions and not true statements. - All in all, the demand for 'participation' should be downplayed in favour of strengthening the right to information in order to able to develop the largest possible number of

  3. The Paradox of Precaution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bechmann, Gotthard [Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe Technik und Umwelt, Inst. fuer Technikfolgeabschaetzung und Systemanalyse (ITAS), Karlsruhe (Germany)

    2009-12-15

    The precautionary principle cannot rid itself of risk. In the area of precaution it re-emerges as the risk of precaution. This is due to the fact that precaution is a disposition of the future which can only be decided in the medium of probability/lack of probability. With this type of calculation, we take advantage of the uncertainty of the future and at the same time our own uncertainty to make decisions in the present that can be confirmed or refuted by future states of the present. We will never reach the safe side since the future as future is inherently uncertain. If we take this realisation as a basis, we see that precaution does not mean creating a future free of risk or danger, but that the precautionary principle is a meta-rule how this basic uncertainty can be, and is, processed communicatively, i.e. at the societal level. On this topic a number of remarks: - There are no apodeictic judgements possible with respect to issues of the future, in particular when these are possible catastrophes. Whoever operates in such cases with true assertions disqualifies himself. As we know, this has ruined the political reputation of scientific experts. - We must further do without consensus on principles or on the priority of certain values. Negotiations on decisions must be formulated and understood in a way that they are compatible with a disagreement on principle. Current coordination is then more important than correspondence in the cognitive and evaluative foundations of the assessment of future. - Communication itself is better set up not as communicative action in the sense of Habermas, but on the contrary as strategic action under conditions of uncertainty, that is we have to stay aware that debates related to the future are social constructions and not true statements. - All in all, the demand for 'participation' should be downplayed in favour of strengthening the right to information in order to able to develop the largest possible number of constructs. - The

  4. Risks of disaster in the energy system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kristoferson, L.; Kjellstroem, B.; Svenningsson, P.J.

    1986-10-01

    The perception of environmental effects and risks is discussed concerning the difficulties to making objective comparisons between different energy sources. Risks may influence the choice of strategies of the replacement of nuclear electric power in the Swedish energy system. Risks for major accidents and disasters to occur at a small level of probability are presented concerning the existing or future energy sources. The choice of strategies is discussed by means of calculated examples

  5. Integrating spaceflight human system risk research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mindock, Jennifer; Lumpkins, Sarah; Anton, Wilma; Havenhill, Maria; Shelhamer, Mark; Canga, Michael

    2017-10-01

    NASA is working to increase the likelihood of exploration mission success and to maintain crew health, both during exploration missions and long term after return to Earth. To manage the risks in achieving these goals, a system modelled after a Continuous Risk Management framework is in place. ;Human System Risks; (Risks) have been identified, and 32 are currently being actively addressed by NASA's Human Research Program (HRP). Research plans for each of HRP's Risks have been developed and are being executed. Inter-disciplinary ties between the research efforts supporting each Risk have been identified; however, efforts to identify and benefit from these connections have been mostly ad hoc. There is growing recognition that solutions developed to address the full set of Risks covering medical, physiological, behavioural, vehicle, and organizational aspects of exploration missions must be integrated across Risks and disciplines. This paper discusses how a framework of factors influencing human health and performance in space is being applied as the backbone for bringing together sometimes disparate information relevant to the individual Risks. The resulting interrelated information enables identification and visualization of connections between Risks and research efforts in a systematic and standardized manner. This paper also discusses the applications of the visualizations and insights into research planning, solicitation, and decision-making processes.

  6. Exploring Nonlinearities in Financial Systemic Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wolski, M.

    2013-01-01

    We propose a new methodology of assessing the effects of individual institution's risk on the others and on the system as a whole. We build upon the Conditional Value-at-Risk approach, however, we introduce the explicit Granger causal linkages and we account for possible nonlinearities in the

  7. Time, physics, and the paradoxes of continuity

    CERN Document Server

    Steinberg, D A

    2003-01-01

    A recent article in this journal proposes a radical reformulation of classical and quantum dynamics based on a perceived deficiency in current definitions of time. The argument is incorrect but the errors highlight aspects of the foundations of mathematics and physics that are commonly confused and misunderstood. For this reason, the article provides an important and heuristic opportunity to reexamine the types of time and non-standard analysis. This paper will discuss the differences between physical time and experiential time and explain how an expanded system of real analysis containing infinitesimals can resolve the paradoxes of continuity without sacrificing the modern edifice of mathematical physics.

  8. Jamaican family structure: the paradox of normalcy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dechesnay, M

    1986-06-01

    The relationship between basic research, theory, and clinical work with families is conceptualized during a discussion of Jamaican family structure and the application of change theory to a clinical case of depression in a Jamaican woman. It was found that three types of family structure are prevalent in Jamaica. The European ideal of a patriarchal-patrifocal structure creates problems for working-class Jamaicans. General system theory provides support for a different model. Change theory is applied to resolve the paradox created by the European model.

  9. The Paradox of Modern Suffering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dræby, Anders

    The Paradox of Suffering in modern western Culture In non-western cultures and pre-modern western cultures suffering is considered the normal state of life. Corrispondingly the suffering of oneself and that of other people form a central focus to most religions, their practices and philosophies...

  10. Teaching Quantum Physics without Paradoxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hobson, Art

    2007-01-01

    Although the resolution to the wave-particle paradox has been known for 80 years, it is seldom presented. Briefly, the resolution is that material particles and photons are the quanta of extended spatially continuous but energetically quantized fields. But because the resolution resides in quantum field theory and is not usually spelled out in…

  11. The Banach-Tarski paradox

    CERN Document Server

    Wagon, Stan

    1985-01-01

    The Banach-Tarski paradox is a most striking mathematical construction: it asserts that a solid ball may be taken apart into finitely many pieces that can be rearranged using rigid motions to form a ball twice as large as the original. This volume explore

  12. The Paradox of Painful Art

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smuts, Aaron

    2007-01-01

    Many of the most popular genres of narrative art are designed to elicit negative emotions: emotions that are experienced as painful or involving some degree of pain, which people generally avoid in their daily lives. Traditionally, the question of why people seek out such experiences of painful art has been presented as the paradox of tragedy, and…

  13. On Johnson's Paradox: Hypothesis Verification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noble, Clyde E.

    1975-01-01

    When H. M. Johnson argued that all inductive reasoning is based on the fallacy of affirming the consequent and cannot therefore establish the 'truth' of scientific hypotheses, he posed a paradox for strict empiricists. Author examined Johnson's argument. (Editor/RK)

  14. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lee, John C; McCormick, Norman J

    2011-01-01

    .... The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used...

  15. Seventy Years of the EPR Paradox

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kupczynski, Marian

    2006-11-01

    In spite of the fact that statistical predictions of quantum theory (QT) can only be tested if large amount of data is available a claim has been made that QT provides the most complete description of an individual physical system. Einstein's opposition to this claim and the paradox he presented in the article written together with Podolsky and Rosen in 1935 inspired generations of physicists in their quest for better understanding of QT. Seventy years after EPR article it is clear that without deep understanding of the character and limitations of QT one may not hope to find a meaningful unified theory of all physical interactions, manipulate qubits or construct a quantum computer.. In this paper we present shortly the EPR paper, the discussion, which followed it and Bell inequalities (BI). To avoid various paradoxes we advocate purely statistical contextual interpretation (PSC) of QT. According to PSC a state vector is not an attribute of a single electron, photon, trapped ion or quantum dot. A value of an observable assigned to a physical system has only a meaning in a context of a particular physical experiment PSC does not provide any mental space-time picture of sub phenomena. The EPR paradox is avoided because the reduction of the state vector in the measurement process is a passage from a description of the whole ensemble of the experimental results to a particular sub-ensemble of these results. We show that the violation of BI is neither a proof of the completeness of QT nor of its non-locality. Therefore we rephrase the EPR question and ask whether QT is "predictably "complete or in other words does it provide the complete description of experimental data. To test the "predictable completeness" it is not necessary to perform additional experiments it is sufficient to analyze more in detail the existing experimental data by using various non-parametric purity tests and other specific statistical tools invented to study the fine structure the time-series.

  16. A macroeconomic framework for quantifying systemic risk

    OpenAIRE

    He, Zhiguo; Krishnamurthy, Arvind

    2012-01-01

    Systemic risk arises when shocks lead to states where a disruption in financial intermediation adversely affects the economy and feeds back into further disrupting financial intermediation. We present a macroeconomic model with a financial intermediary sector subject to an equity capital constraint. The novel aspect of our analysis is that the model produces a stochastic steady state distribution for the economy, in which only some of the states correspond to systemic risk states. The model a...

  17. Short-Selling, Leverage and Systemic Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Pais, Amelia; Stork, Philip A.

    2013-01-01

    During the Global Financial Crisis, regulators imposed short-selling bans to protect financial institutions. The rationale behind the bans was that “bear raids”, driven by short-sellers, would increase the individual and systemic risk of financial institutions, especially for institutions with high leverage. This study uses Extreme Value Theory to estimate the effect of short-selling on financial institutions’ individual and systemic risks in France, Italy and Spain; it also analyses the rela...

  18. PRECIS -- A probabilistic risk assessment system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, D.M.; Knowlton, R.G. Jr.

    1996-01-01

    A series of computer tools has been developed to conduct the exposure assessment and risk characterization phases of human health risk assessments within a probabilistic framework. The tools are collectively referred to as the Probabilistic Risk Evaluation and Characterization Investigation System (PRECIS). With this system, a risk assessor can calculate the doses and risks associated with multiple environmental and exposure pathways, for both chemicals and radioactive contaminants. Exposure assessment models in the system account for transport of contaminants to receptor points from a source zone originating in unsaturated soils above the water table. In addition to performing calculations of dose and risk based on initial concentrations, PRECIS can also be used in an inverse manner to compute soil concentrations in the source area that must not be exceeded if prescribed limits on dose or risk are to be met. Such soil contaminant levels, referred to as soil guidelines, are computed for both single contaminants and chemical mixtures and can be used as action levels or cleanup levels. Probabilistic estimates of risk, dose and soil guidelines are derived using Monte Carlo techniques

  19. Systems Toxicology: The Future of Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, John Michael; Hartung, Thomas; Leist, Marcel; Knudsen, Thomas B; Hoeng, Julia; Hayes, A Wallace

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment, in the context of public health, is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. With increasing public health concern regarding the potential risks associated with chemical exposure, there is a need for more predictive and accurate approaches to risk assessment. Developing such an approach requires a mechanistic understanding of the process by which xenobiotic substances perturb biological systems and lead to toxicity. Supplementing the shortfalls of traditional risk assessment with mechanistic biological data has been widely discussed but not routinely implemented in the evaluation of chemical exposure. These mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. This Symposium Overview article summarizes 4 talks presented at the 35th Annual Meeting of the American College of Toxicology. © The Author(s) 2015.

  20. Environmental health risk assessment: Energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krewski, D.; Somers, E.; Winthrop, S.O.

    1984-01-01

    Most industrialized nations have come to rely on a variety of systems for energy production, both of a conventional and non-conventional nature. In the paper, the spectrum of energy systems currently in use in Canada is outlined along with their potential health risks. Several examples of environmental health studies involving both outdoor and indoor air pollution related to energy production in Canada are reported. The limitations of current technologies for assessing health risks are discussed and possible approaches to managing energy related health risks are indicated. (author)

  1. THRMS: A pilot risk management system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xue, D.; Xu, Y.

    2000-01-01

    Daya Bay NPP is the first commercial nuclear power plant in China. This plant is interested in and pro-active towards the development and application of PSA and PSA tools. This, together with the support from the IAEA promoted the project 'THRMS: the pilot study of risk management system for NPP'. The objectives in development and implementation of THRMS includes: survey and discuss on the development of the approaches used in constructing plant risk models; design and study on the realization of a real-time risk management system. An overview of the project is presented in this paper. (author)

  2. Control of System with Defined Risk Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavol Tomasov

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available In the following paper the basic requirements for system control with defined risk level is presented. The paper should be an introduction to describe of theoretical apparatus, which was created during some years of research work in the Department of information and safety systems in this area. It a modification or creation of new parts of Information theory, System theory, and Control theory means. This parts are necessary for the analysis and synthesis tasks in the systems where dominant attribute of control is defined risk level. The basic problem is the creation of protect mechanism again the threats from inside and from controlled system environs. For each risk reduction mechanism is needed some redundancy which should be into control algorithm to put by exactly determined way.

  3. Systemic trade risk of critical resources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klimek, Peter; Obersteiner, Michael; Thurner, Stefan

    2015-11-01

    In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, the role of strongly interconnected markets in causing systemic instability has been increasingly acknowledged. Trade networks of commodities are susceptible to cascades of supply shocks that increase systemic trade risks and pose a threat to geopolitical stability. We show that supply risk, scarcity, and price volatility of nonfuel mineral resources are intricately connected with the structure of the worldwide trade networks spanned by these resources. At the global level, we demonstrate that the scarcity of a resource is closely related to the susceptibility of the trade network with respect to cascading shocks. At the regional level, we find that, to some extent, region-specific price volatility and supply risk can be understood by centrality measures that capture systemic trade risk. The resources associated with the highest systemic trade risk indicators are often those that are produced as by-products of major metals. We identify significant strategic shortcomings in the management of systemic trade risk, in particular in the European Union.

  4. Traversing boundaries: thrombus in transit with paradoxical embolism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Varun Miriyala

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available A 72-year-old male is diagnosed with paradoxical embolus after he presented with concurrent deep vein thrombosis, stroke, and multiple arterial emboli in the presence of a patent foramen ovale (PFO. Paradoxical embolus requires the passage of a thrombus from the venous into the arterial circulation through a right-to-left shunt leading to systemic embolism. But, despite the high incidence of PFO (27.3% across all age groups by autopsy, paradoxical embolism (PDE is uncommon, representing <2% of all arterial emboli. We present a case report where a thrombus has been directly observed passing through the PFO during an echocardiogram study; thus, clearly delineating the true cause of multiple thromboemboli and stoke in our patient. Subsequent Transesophageal Echocardiography (TEE also interestingly showed the thrombus in transit in the aorta and pulmonary artery.

  5. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    CERN Document Server

    Lee, John C

    2011-01-01

    The book has been developed in conjunction with NERS 462, a course offered every year to seniors and graduate students in the University of Michigan NERS program. The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used to analyze the unavailability of systems with repairs, fault trees and event trees used in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), and failure modes of systems. All of this material is general enough that it could be used in non-nuclear a

  6. Human System Risk Management for Space Flight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Jeffrey

    2015-01-01

    This brief abstract reviews the development of the current day approach to human system risk management for space flight and the development of the critical components of this process over the past few years. The human system risk management process now provides a comprehensive assessment of each human system risk by design reference mission (DRM) and is evaluated not only for mission success but also for long-term health impacts for the astronauts. The discipline of bioastronautics is the study of the biological and medical effects of space flight on humans. In 1997, the Space Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) initiated the Bioastronautics Roadmap (Roadmap) as the "Critical Path Roadmap", and in 1998 participation in the roadmap was expanded to include the National Space Biomedical Research Institute (NSBRI) and the external community. A total of 55 risks and 250 questions were identified and prioritized and in 2000, the Roadmap was base-lined and put under configuration control. The Roadmap took into account several major advisory committee reviews including the Institute of Medicine (IOM) "Safe Passage: Astronaut care for Exploration Missions", 2001. Subsequently, three collaborating organizations at NASA HQ (Chief Health and Medical Officer, Office of Space Flight and Office of Biological & Physical Research), published the Bioastronautics Strategy in 2003, that identified the human as a "critical subsystem of space flight" and noted that "tolerance limits and safe operating bands must be established" to enable human space flight. These offices also requested a review by the IOM of the Roadmap and that review was published in October 2005 as "A Risk Reduction Strategy for Human Exploration of Space: A Review of NASA's Bioastronautics Roadmap", that noted several strengths and weaknesses of the Roadmap and made several recommendations. In parallel with the development of the Roadmap, the Office of the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) began a process in

  7. Petrophysical and Petrographic Characterization, Mixed Carbonate - Siliciclastic - Evaporite Cclic System, upper Desmoinesian (Middle Pennsylvanian) of the Paradox Basin (SE Utah, U.S.A.)

    OpenAIRE

    Nussbaumer, Christophe

    1999-01-01

    Pour la caractérisation pétrophysique et pétrographique des roches du système mixte carbonaté, siliciclastique et évaporitique du Desmoinesien supérieur du Bassin du Paradox (Utah, USA), trois affleurements de terrain et six carottes de forage ont été visités. Les données pétrophysiques mesurées sur échantillon sont la densité, la porosité, la perméabilité, et les vitesses ultrasoniques des ondes P et S. Pour la pétrographie, les observations en lame mince (texture, composants, porosité, type...

  8. Plant risk status information management system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campbell, D.J.; Ellison, B.C.; Glynn, J.C.; Flanagan, G.F.

    1985-01-01

    The Plant Risk Status Information Management System (PRISIMS) is a PC program that presents information about a nuclear power plant's design, its operation, its technical specifications, and the results of the plant's probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in a logically and easily accessible format. PRISIMS provides its user with unique information for integrating safety concerns into day-to-day operational decisions and/or long-range management planning

  9. Risk Analysis of Accounting Information System Infrastructure

    OpenAIRE

    MIHALACHE, Arsenie-Samoil

    2011-01-01

    National economy and security are fully dependent on information technology and infrastructure. At the core of the information infrastructure society relies on, we have the Internet, a system designed initially as a scientists’ forum for unclassified research. The use of communication networks and systems may lead to hazardous situations that generate undesirable effects such as communication systems breakdown, loss of data or taking the wrong decisions. The paper studies the risk analysis of...

  10. TilE PARADOX OF PEDAGOGY TRANSPOSITION: Learning From ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A belief that a pedagogy developed and proven in one context may generalize or exist comfortably in other ... the new context. Further, paradox can be observed in the facilitation process ... the use of theory and pedagogy that have ... perspectives of educational change. While ..... communication and education systems -.

  11. Inferences from the dark sky: Olbers' paradox revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arpino, Mauro; Scardigli, Fabio

    2003-01-01

    The classical formulation of 'Olbers' paradox' consists in looking for an explanation of the fact that the sky at night is dark. We use the experimental datum of the nocturnal darkness in order to put constraints on a Newtonian cosmological model. We infer then that the stellar system in such a model should have had an origin at a finite time in the past

  12. System Risk Balancing Profiles: Software Component

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, John C.; Sigal, Burton C.; Gindorf, Tom

    2000-01-01

    The Software QA / V&V guide will be reviewed and updated based on feedback from NASA organizations and others with a vested interest in this area. Hardware, EEE Parts, Reliability, and Systems Safety are a sample of the future guides that will be developed. Cost Estimates, Lessons Learned, Probability of Failure and PACTS (Prevention, Avoidance, Control or Test) are needed to provide a more complete risk management strategy. This approach to risk management is designed to help balance the resources and program content for risk reduction for NASA's changing environment.

  13. The nature of quantum paradoxes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tarozzi, G.; Van der Merwe, A.

    1988-01-01

    The nature of Quantum Paradoxes provides an exhaustive general view of the most recent studies and research carried out by Italian scientists and philosophers of science in the field of the foundations of quantum physics, employing a critical stance and an alternative to the orthodox Copenhagen interpretation. During the last twenty years the Italians have produced a remarkable amount of work on the quantum-mechanical theory of measurement, the interpretation of the wave-function, the axiomatization of quantum formalism, Bell-type theorems and realistic local theories, thus creating one of the most advanced contributions to the problems of understanding Nature and clarifying the origin of the quantum paradoxes. (author). refs.; figs.; tabs

  14. Klein paradox and vacuum polarization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Damour, T.

    1977-01-01

    This contribution reviews some of the methods which can be used when studying quantum fields in a given stationary classical external field. The attention is mainly directed towards cases where real pair creation can occur in such a stationary background. The paradigm of this situation is the Klein paradox. This paradox is best approached by the introduction of some energy diagrams whose direct extension to black holes physics has proven to be very useful. Finally processes of real pair creation around a Kerr-Newman (charged and rotating) black hole and their feedback on the geometry are briefly discussed. It is also shown how the Hawking process can be recovered in this approach. (Auth.)

  15. Illustrations of the twin paradox

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rebhan, E.

    1985-01-01

    In order to provide a more intuitive understanding of the twin paradox, several illustrations of this are presented. In one of these, each of the twins is equipped with a lamp whose monochromatic light can be observed by the other. In other illustrations the travelling twin uses an Einstein train instead of a space ship, all the cars of the train and all stations along the route of the train being equipped with clocks. (author)

  16. Reinterpretaion of the friendship paradox

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Jingcheng; Wu, Jianliang

    The friendship paradox (FP) is a sociological phenomenon stating that most people have fewer friends than their friends do. It is to say that in a social network, the number of friends that most individuals have is smaller than the average number of friends of friends. This has been verified by Feld. We call this interpreting method mean value version. But is it the best choice to portray the paradox? In this paper, we propose a probability method to reinterpret this paradox, and we illustrate that the explanation using our method is more persuasive. An individual satisfies the FP if his (her) randomly chosen friend has more friends than him (her) with probability not less than 1/2. Comparing the ratios of nodes satisfying the FP in networks, rp, we can see that the probability version is stronger than the mean value version in real networks both online and offline. We also show some results about the effects of several parameters on rp in random network models. Most importantly, rp is a quadratic polynomial of the power law exponent γ in Price model, and rp is higher when the average clustering coefficient is between 0.4 and 0.5 in Petter-Beom (PB) model. The introduction of the probability method to FP can shed light on understanding the network structure in complex networks especially in social networks.

  17. HIV As Trojan Exosome: Immunological Paradox Explained?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hildreth, James E K

    2017-01-01

    The HIV pandemic is still a major global challenge, despite the widespread availability of antiretroviral drugs. An effective vaccine would be the ideal approach to bringing the pandemic to an end. However, developing an effective HIV vaccine has proven to be an elusive goal. Three major human HIV vaccine trials revealed a strong trend toward greater risk of infection among vaccine recipients versus controls. A similar observation was made in a macaque SIV vaccine study. The mechanism explaining this phenomenon is not known. Here, a model is presented that may explain the troubling results of vaccine studies and an immunological paradox of HIV pathogenesis: preferential infection of HIV-specific T cells. The central hypothesis of this perspective is that as "Trojan exosomes" HIV particles can directly activate HIV-specific T cells enhancing their susceptibility to infection. Understanding the biology of HIV as an exosome may provide insights that enable novel approaches to vaccine development.

  18. Zero risk fuel fabrication: a systems analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-01-01

    Zero risk is a concept used to ensure that system requirements are developed through a systems approach such that the choice(s) among alternatives represents the balanced viewpoints of performance, achievability and risk. Requirements to ensure characteristics such as stringent accountability, low personnel exposure and etc. are needed to guide the development of component and subsystems for future LMFBR fuel supply systems. To establish a consistent and objective set of requirements, RF and M-TMC has initiated a systems requirements analysis activity. This activity pivots on judgement and experience provided by a Task Force representing industrial companies engaged in fuel fabrication in licensed facilities. The Task Force members are listed in Appendix A. Input developed by this group is presented as a starting point for the systems requirements analysis

  19. A "refugee paradox" for substance use disorders?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salas-Wright, Christopher P; Vaughn, Michael G

    2014-09-01

    Few, if any, studies have systematically examined the link between nativity and substance use disorders (SUD) among refugees using national samples. As such, it remains uncertain if the "immigrant paradox" for substance use can be extended to include refugees in the United States. Employing data from the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions, we examine the lifetime prevalence of SUDs among refugees (n=428) in contrast with non-refugee immigrants (n=4955) and native-born Americans (n=29,267). We also examine the impact of gender and refugee duration on the relationship between nativity, refugee status, and SUDs. Refugees were between 3 and 6 times less likely than native-born Americans meet criteria for all SUDs examined, and significantly less likely than non-refugee immigrants to meet criteria for alcohol (AOR=0.44, 95% CI=0.41-0.47), cocaine (AOR=0.54, 95% CI=0.50-0.59), hallucinogen (AOR=0.66, 95% CI=0.58-0.74), and opioid/heroin (AOR=0.62, 95% CI=0.58-0.66) use disorders. The refugee-SUD link was significantly moderated by gender. Duration as a refugee was associated with increased risk for alcohol use disorder and decreased risk of cannabis and illicit drug use disorders. Study findings provide evidence in support of a "refugee paradox" for SUDs among adults in the United States. Refugees are substantially less likely than native-born Americans to meet criteria for all SUDs examined and, albeit with weaker effects, significantly less likely than non-refugee immigrants to meet criteria for a variety of SUDs. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Health and environmental risks of energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.

    1984-01-01

    The paper gives four examples of health risk assessments of energy systems: (1) Comparative risk assessment of the health effects of the coal and nuclear fuel cycles. Estimates differ from previous values chiefly by inclusion of ranges of uncertainty, but some coal-cycle numbers were re-estimated. Upper-boundary public disease risks of air pollution from coal-fired plants dominate. Reactors probably account for most of the potential effect of major nuclear accidents. Accidental death rates in electricity generation are low for reactors and higher for coal. (2) Upper-boundary air pollution health risks of existing fossil-fuel-based energy technologies in the United States of America. Preliminary mortality estimates were obtained combining potential impacts of three index pollutants - SO 4 , NO 2 , and CO - as independent measures of risk. Four fuel cycle trajectories leading to three end-uses were analysed. (3) Health risks of acid deposition and other transported air pollutants, carried out as part of an assessment of the US Congress Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) 'Acid Rain and Transported Air Pollutants. (4) Health effects of uranium mill tailings piles. Mortality risk is estimated to be minuscule (8.7x10 -9 average individual lifetime cancer risk from a model mill, compared with 9.5x10 -4 for background radiation). Methods that sum risks over the indefinite future are shown to be unrealistic. As a final example of risk analysis, the cost-effectiveness analysis for proposed EPA standards for radionuclides is shown to be deficient by an analysis concluding that the cost per potential cancer avoided could range from US $70 million to US $140 billion

  1. Paradoxical Deterioration During Anti-Tuberculous Therapy in Non-HIV-Infected Patients with Pleural Tuberculosis: A Pragmatic Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Corral-Gudino

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available We report a case of paradoxical deterioration. A male patient diagnosed with pleural tuberculosis, but who was not infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV, experienced clinical deterioration 3 weeks after the initiation of anti-tuberculous treatment. After other diagnoses were ruled out, a paradoxical response to treatment was established and the patient was started on systemic corticosteroids. Paradoxical response to treatment should be considered in patients with clinical deterioration after they start on anti-tuberculous treatment.

  2. Paradoxical upgrading reaction in extra-pulmonary tuberculosis: association with vitamin D therapy

    OpenAIRE

    Barr, D.A.; Coussens, A.K.; Irvine, S.; Ritchie, N.D.; Herbert, K.; Choo-Kang, B.; Raeside, D.; Bell, D.J.; Seaton, R.A.

    2017-01-01

    SETTING: Glasgow, Scotland, UK.\\ud \\ud BACKGROUND: Paradoxical reactions in tuberculosis (TB) are a notable example of our incomplete understanding of host-pathogen interactions during anti-tuberculosis treatment.\\ud \\ud OBJECTIVES: To determine risk factors for a TB paradoxical reaction, and specifically to assess for an independent association with vitamin D use.\\ud \\ud DESIGN: Consecutive human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) negative adult patients treated for extra-pulmonary TB were identif...

  3. Localized Scleroderma, Systemic Sclerosis and Cardiovascular Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hesselvig, Jeanette Halskou; Kofoed, Kristian; Wu, Jashin J

    2018-01-01

    Recent findings indicate that patients with systemic sclerosis have an increased risk of cardiovascular disease. To determine whether patients with systemic sclerosis or localized scleroderma are at increased risk of cardiovascular disease, a cohort study of the entire Danish population aged ≥ 18...... and ≤ 100 years was conducted, followed from 1997 to 2011 by individual-level linkage of nationwide registries. Multivariable adjusted Cox regression models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) for a composite cardiovascular disease endpoint. A total of 697 patients with localized scleroderma and 1......,962 patients with systemic sclerosis were identified and compared with 5,428,380 people in the reference population. In systemic sclerosis, the adjusted HR was 2.22 (95% confidence interval 1.99-2.48). No association was seen between patients with localized scleroderma and cardiovascular disease. In conclusion...

  4. Quantitative risk assessment of digitalized safety systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shin, Sung Min; Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hym Gook [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Seung Jun [UNIST, Ulasn (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    A report published by the U.S. National Research Council indicates that appropriate methods for assessing reliability are key to establishing the acceptability of digital instrumentation and control (I and C) systems in safety-critical plants such as NPPs. Since the release of this issue, the methodology for the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of digital I and C systems has been studied. However, there is still no widely accepted method. Kang and Sung found three critical factors for safety assessment of digital systems: detection coverage of fault-tolerant techniques, software reliability quantification, and network communication risk. In reality the various factors composing digitalized I and C systems are not independent of each other but rather closely connected. Thus, from a macro point of view, a method that can integrate risk factors with different characteristics needs to be considered together with the micro approaches to address the challenges facing each factor.

  5. Risk Informed Structural Systems Integrity Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Michael Havbro Faber

    2017-01-01

    The present paper is predominantly a conceptual contribution with an appraisal of major developments in risk informed structural integrity management for offshore installations together with a discussion of their merits and the challenges which still lie ahead. Starting point is taken in a selected...... overview of research and development contributions which have formed the basis for Risk Based Inspection Planning (RBI) as we know it today. Thereafter an outline of the methodical basis for risk informed structural systems integrity management, i.e. the Bayesian decision analysis is provided in summary....... The main focus is here directed on RBI for offshore facilities subject to fatigue damages. New ideas and methodical frameworks in the area of robustness and resilience modeling of structural systems are then introduced, and it is outlined how these may adequately be utilized to enhance Structural Integrity...

  6. REXS : A financial risk diagnostic expert system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Richter

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Artificial intelligence techniques are rapidly emerging as important contributors to more effective management. One of the greatest growth areas probably lies in the use of Expert System methodology for supporting managerial decision processes.
    Existing Decision Support Systems often attempt to apply analytical techniques in combination with traditional data access and retrieval functions. One of the problems usually encountered while developing such decision support systems is the need to transform an unstructured problem environment into a structured analytical model. Using an expert system approach to strategic decision making in such unstructured problem environments may provide significant advantages.
    The financial Risk diagnostic EXpert System (REXS concentrates on Financial Risk Analysis. Based on a Forecasting Model the system will, with the support of several expert system knowledge bases, attempt to evaluate the financial risk of a business and provide guidelines for improvement.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Tegnieke gebaseer op Kunsmatige Intelligensie toon tans die belofte om belangrike bydraes te maak tot meerBestaande Besluitsteunstelsels poog dikwels om analitiese tegnieke en lradisionele datatoegang- en onttrekkingsfunksies te kombineer. Een van die probleme wat gewoonlik ondervind word gedurende die ontwikkeling van '0 besluitsteunstelsel bestaan uit die behoefte om 'n ongestruktueerde probleemomgewing te transformeer na 'n gestruktueerde analitiese model. 'n Ekspertstelselbenadering lot strategiese besluitneming in 'n ongeSlruktureerde probleemomgewing mag betekenisvolle voordele inhou.
    Die "financial Risk diagnostic EXpert System (REXS" konsentreer op fmansiele risiko-analise. Uitgaande vanaf 'n Vooruitskattingsmode~ en deur gebruik te maak van verskeie ekspertstelselkennisbasisse, poog die stelsel om die fmansiele risiko van 'n onderneming te evalueer en riglyne vir moontlike verbetering

  7. Analysis of power system collapse risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eleschova, Z.; Belan, A.; Cintula, B.; Smitkova, M.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper are analysed the initialization events with considering different scenarios and their impact on the power system transient stability. As an initialization event is considered a short circuit at various places of power line. In each scenario are considered protection failures (backup protection), circuit-breaker failures (breaker failure relay activation). The individual states are analysed and the power system collapse risk assessed based on the simulation experiments results (Authors)

  8. Health and environmental risks of energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.

    1984-01-01

    This paper gives four examples of health risk assessments of energy systems: (1) Comparative risk assessment of the health effects of the coal and nuclear fuel cycles. Estimates differ from previous values chiefly by inclusion of ranges of uncertainty, but some coal-cycle numbers were re-estimated. Upper-boundary public disease risks of air pollution from coal-fired plants dominate. Reactors probably account for most of the potential effect of major nuclear accidents. Accidental death rates in electricity generation are low for reactors and higher for coal. (2) Upper boundary air pollution health risks of existing fossil-based energy technologies in the United States. Preliminary mortality estimates were obtained combining potential impacts of three index pollutants - SO 4 , NO 2 , and CO - as independent measures of risk. Four fuel cycle trajectories leading to three end-uses were analyzed. Example results: domestic wood burning has substantial potential impact, with an upper boundary exceeding that of coal; upper-boundary air pollution impacts of gas can exceed those of oil, because of NO 2 . (3) Health risks of acid deposition and other transported air pollutants, carried out as part of an assessment of the US Congress Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) Acid Rain and Transported Air Pollutants - Implications for Public Policy. Three scenarios were examined, leading to estimates of 40,000 to 50,000 annual premature deaths, depending on year (1978 vs 2000) and scenario (holding total emissions constant vs 30% reduction). (4) health effects of uranium mill tailings piles. Mortality risk is estimated to be minuscule (8.7 x 10 -9 average individual lifetime cancer risk from a model mill, compared with 9.5 x 10 -4 for background radiation). Methods that sum risks over the indefinite future are shown to be to be unrealistic. 39 references, 7 figures, 15 tables

  9. Immunological Risk of Injectable Drug Delivery Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jiskoot, W.; van Schie, R.M.F.; Carstens, M.G.; Schellekens, H.

    2009-01-01

    Injectable drug delivery systems (DDS) such as particulate carriers and water-soluble polymers are being used and developed for a wide variety of therapeutic applications. However, a number of immunological risks with serious clinical implications are associated with administration of DDS. These

  10. Systems reliability in high risk situations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunns, D.M.

    1974-12-01

    A summary is given of five papers and the discussion of a seminar promoted by the newly-formed National Centre of Systems Reliability. The topics covered include hazard analysis, reliability assessment, and risk assessment in both nuclear and non-nuclear industries. (U.K.)

  11. AGROFOREST SYSTEM INVESTMENT ANALYSIS UNDER RISK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Moreira Coelho Junior

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Agroforestry System is the ecological and economical interaction of the use of the land, with the combination ofagriculture, livestock and forest production, in temporary sequence and in a simultaneous way. The studies of investments in projectsassume the existence of risks and uncertainties. An alternative to reduce the risk in the forest investment is the association with theagricultural. This work analyzed the situations of risk of a system agroflorestal. Monte Carlo s method comes from the theory ofsimulations and stands out as a powerful and useful tool to provide a distribution of probabilities for the analysis of decision. A totalof 10,000 interactions of the Net Present Value (VPL, of Internal Rate of Return (TIR and of the Equivalent Periodic Benefit (BPEwere made in order to establish the probability distribution. The results presented 78.65% of chance of VPL being US$ 1,410.00;77.56% of chance of TIR being 36.36%, and; 75.39% of chance of BPE being US$ 309.70; the agroforestry system presented lowinvestment risk; and the livestock is the main product of the agrossilvopastoril system, followed by charcoal.

  12. Pension systems, intergenerational risk sharing and inflation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beetsma, R.M.W.J.; Bovenberg, A.L.

    2006-01-01

    We investigate intergenerational risk sharing in two-pillar pension systems with a pay-as-you-go pillar and a funded pillar. We consider shocks in productivity, depreciation of capital and inflation. The funded pension pillar can be either defined contribution or defined benefit, with benefits

  13. The three-box paradox revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ravon, Tamar; Vaidman, Lev

    2007-01-01

    The classical three-box paradox of Kirkpatrick (2003 J. Phys. A: Math. Gen. 36 4891) is compared to the original quantum three-box paradox of Aharonov and Vaidman (1991 J. Phys. A: Math. Gen. 24 2315). It is argued that the quantum three-box experiment is a 'quantum paradox' in the sense that it is an example of a classical task which cannot be accomplished using classical means, but can be accomplished using quantum devices. It is shown that Kirkpatrick's card game is analogous to a different game with a particle in three boxes which does not contain paradoxical features

  14. Risk-based classification system of nanomaterials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tervonen, Tommi; Linkov, Igor; Figueira, Jose Rui; Steevens, Jeffery; Chappell, Mark; Merad, Myriam

    2009-01-01

    Various stakeholders are increasingly interested in the potential toxicity and other risks associated with nanomaterials throughout the different stages of a product's life cycle (e.g., development, production, use, disposal). Risk assessment methods and tools developed and applied to chemical and biological materials may not be readily adaptable for nanomaterials because of the current uncertainty in identifying the relevant physico-chemical and biological properties that adequately describe the materials. Such uncertainty is further driven by the substantial variations in the properties of the original material due to variable manufacturing processes employed in nanomaterial production. To guide scientists and engineers in nanomaterial research and application as well as to promote the safe handling and use of these materials, we propose a decision support system for classifying nanomaterials into different risk categories. The classification system is based on a set of performance metrics that measure both the toxicity and physico-chemical characteristics of the original materials, as well as the expected environmental impacts through the product life cycle. Stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA-TRI), a formal decision analysis method, was used as the foundation for this task. This method allowed us to cluster various nanomaterials in different ecological risk categories based on our current knowledge of nanomaterial physico-chemical characteristics, variation in produced material, and best professional judgments. SMAA-TRI uses Monte Carlo simulations to explore all feasible values for weights, criteria measurements, and other model parameters to assess the robustness of nanomaterial grouping for risk management purposes.

  15. Risk-based classification system of nanomaterials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tervonen, Tommi, E-mail: t.p.tervonen@rug.n [University of Groningen, Faculty of Economics and Business (Netherlands); Linkov, Igor, E-mail: igor.linkov@usace.army.mi [US Army Research and Development Center (United States); Figueira, Jose Rui, E-mail: figueira@ist.utl.p [Technical University of Lisbon, CEG-IST, Centre for Management Studies, Instituto Superior Tecnico (Portugal); Steevens, Jeffery, E-mail: jeffery.a.steevens@usace.army.mil; Chappell, Mark, E-mail: mark.a.chappell@usace.army.mi [US Army Research and Development Center (United States); Merad, Myriam, E-mail: myriam.merad@ineris.f [INERIS BP 2, Societal Management of Risks Unit/Accidental Risks Division (France)

    2009-05-15

    Various stakeholders are increasingly interested in the potential toxicity and other risks associated with nanomaterials throughout the different stages of a product's life cycle (e.g., development, production, use, disposal). Risk assessment methods and tools developed and applied to chemical and biological materials may not be readily adaptable for nanomaterials because of the current uncertainty in identifying the relevant physico-chemical and biological properties that adequately describe the materials. Such uncertainty is further driven by the substantial variations in the properties of the original material due to variable manufacturing processes employed in nanomaterial production. To guide scientists and engineers in nanomaterial research and application as well as to promote the safe handling and use of these materials, we propose a decision support system for classifying nanomaterials into different risk categories. The classification system is based on a set of performance metrics that measure both the toxicity and physico-chemical characteristics of the original materials, as well as the expected environmental impacts through the product life cycle. Stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA-TRI), a formal decision analysis method, was used as the foundation for this task. This method allowed us to cluster various nanomaterials in different ecological risk categories based on our current knowledge of nanomaterial physico-chemical characteristics, variation in produced material, and best professional judgments. SMAA-TRI uses Monte Carlo simulations to explore all feasible values for weights, criteria measurements, and other model parameters to assess the robustness of nanomaterial grouping for risk management purposes.

  16. Paradoxical Infrastructures: Ruins, Retrofit, and Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Howe, Cymene; Lockrem, Jessica; Appel, Hannah; Hackett, Edward; Boyer, Dominic; Hall, Randal; Schneider-Mayerson, Matthew; Pope, Albert; Gupta, Akhil; Rodwell, Elizabeth; Ballestero, Andrew; Durbin, Trevor; el-Dahdah, Fares; Long, Elizabeth; Mody, Cyrus C.M.

    2016-01-01

    In recent years, a dramatic increase in the study of infrastructure has occurred in the social sciences and humanities, following upon foundational work in the physical sciences, architecture, planning, information science, and engineering. This article, authored by a multidisciplinary group of

  17. Credit Default Swaps networks and systemic risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puliga, Michelangelo; Caldarelli, Guido; Battiston, Stefano

    2014-11-01

    Credit Default Swaps (CDS) spreads should reflect default risk of the underlying corporate debt. Actually, it has been recognized that CDS spread time series did not anticipate but only followed the increasing risk of default before the financial crisis. In principle, the network of correlations among CDS spread time series could at least display some form of structural change to be used as an early warning of systemic risk. Here we study a set of 176 CDS time series of financial institutions from 2002 to 2011. Networks are constructed in various ways, some of which display structural change at the onset of the credit crisis of 2008, but never before. By taking these networks as a proxy of interdependencies among financial institutions, we run stress-test based on Group DebtRank. Systemic risk before 2008 increases only when incorporating a macroeconomic indicator reflecting the potential losses of financial assets associated with house prices in the US. This approach indicates a promising way to detect systemic instabilities.

  18. Credit Default Swaps networks and systemic risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puliga, Michelangelo; Caldarelli, Guido; Battiston, Stefano

    2014-11-04

    Credit Default Swaps (CDS) spreads should reflect default risk of the underlying corporate debt. Actually, it has been recognized that CDS spread time series did not anticipate but only followed the increasing risk of default before the financial crisis. In principle, the network of correlations among CDS spread time series could at least display some form of structural change to be used as an early warning of systemic risk. Here we study a set of 176 CDS time series of financial institutions from 2002 to 2011. Networks are constructed in various ways, some of which display structural change at the onset of the credit crisis of 2008, but never before. By taking these networks as a proxy of interdependencies among financial institutions, we run stress-test based on Group DebtRank. Systemic risk before 2008 increases only when incorporating a macroeconomic indicator reflecting the potential losses of financial assets associated with house prices in the US. This approach indicates a promising way to detect systemic instabilities.

  19. Paradoxical embolism: Experiences from a single center

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong-Liang Zhang

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To present our treatment experiences and the follow-up data of patients with paradoxical embolism (PDE. Methods: The clinical characteristics, management, and follow-up data of all included patients who were diagnosed with PDE at Fuwai Hospital from January 1994 to October 2015 were recorded. Results: Twelve patients were included; all had a pulmonary embolism, and 8 had deep venous thrombosis. The artery embolisms involved the cerebral artery (7 patients, renal artery (2 patients, mesentery artery (2 patients, popliteal artery (1 patient, descending aorta thrombus (1 patient, and thrombus-straddled patent foramen ovale (PFO (1 patient. PFO was found in 3 cases. One patient underwent thrombectomy and PFO closure; Six patients received thrombolysis; and 3 patients were implanted with a vena cava filter. Long-term anticoagulation with warfarin was recommended for each patient. One patient died from ventricular fibrillation despite cardiopulmonary resuscitation. Eleven patients were discharged with improvements. No late mortality occurred in 8 patients with a complete follow-up of 10.6–17.7 years. One had a recurrent deep venous thrombosis. No patient had a recurrent pulmonary or arterial embolism. Two patients changed their treatment from warfarin to aspirin; others remained on warfarin. Only 1 case had an occasional gum bleeding. Conclusions: PDE treatment including thrombolysis, anticoagulation, and embolectomy should be individualized. We recommend long-term anticoagulation therapy to prevent the recurrence of PDE, especially to those with an intracardiac communication or persistent risk factors for re-thrombosis. Keywords: Paradoxical embolism, Pulmonary embolism, Deep venous thrombosis, Patent foramen ovale

  20. Salt disposal: Paradox Basin, Utah

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-04-01

    This report presents the findings of a study conducted for the National Waste Terminal Storage (NWTS) Program. Permanent disposal options are examined for salt resulting from the excavation of a waste repository in the bedded salt deposits of the Paradox Basin of southeastern Utah. The study is based on a repository salt backfill compaction of 60% of the original density which leaves a total of 8 million tons of 95% pure salt to be disposed of over a 30-year period. The feasibility, impacts, and mitigation methods are examined for five options: commercial disposal, permanent onsite surface disposal, permanent offsite disposal, deepwell injection, and ocean and Great Salt Lake disposal. The study concludes the following: Commercial marketing of all repository salt would require a subsidy for transportation to major salt markets. Permanent onsite surface storage is both economically and technically feasible. Permanent offsite disposal is technically feasible but would incur additional transportation costs. Selection of an offsite location would provide a means of mitigating impacts associated with surface storage at the repository site. Deepwell injection is an attractive disposal method; however, the large water requirement, high cost of development, and poor performance of similar operating brine disposal wells eliminates this option from consideration as the primary means of disposal for the Paradox Basin. Ocean disposal is expensive because of high transportation cost. Also, regulatory approval is unlikely. Ocean disposal should be eliminated from further consideration in the Paradox Basin. Great Salt Lake disposal appears to be technically feasible. Great Salt Lake disposal would require state approval and would incur substantial costs for salt transportation. Permanent onsite disposal is the least expensive method for disposal of all repository salt

  1. The MedDRA paradox.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merrill, Gary H

    2008-11-06

    MedDRA (the Medical Dictionary for Regulatory Activities Terminology) is a controlled vocabulary widely used as a medical coding scheme. However, MedDRA's characterization of its structural hierarchy exhibits some confusing and paradoxical features. The goal of this paper is to examine these features, determine whether there is a coherent view of the MedDRA hierarchy that emerges, and explore what lessons are to be learned from this for using MedDRA and similar terminologies in a broad medical informatics context that includes relations among multiple disparate terminologies, thesauri, and ontologies.

  2. A Note on Faraday Paradoxes

    CERN Document Server

    Auchmann, Bernhard; Russenschuck, Stephan

    2014-01-01

    The validity of the flux rule to determine the electromotive force in a cycle, epsilon = -d Phi/dt, has been the subject of a large amount of controversy since the beginning of electrical technology. Although most authors reach correct conclusions for a class of problems called Faraday paradoxes, the arguments that are used vary and often rely on ad-hoc physical reasoning. A didactic and insightful treatment should be based solely on Maxwell's equations, the constitutive laws, and a detailed study of the mathematics involved.

  3. A Participatory Model of the Paradox of Primary Care

    Science.gov (United States)

    Homa, Laura; Rose, Johnie; Hovmand, Peter S.; Cherng, Sarah T.; Riolo, Rick L.; Kraus, Alison; Biswas, Anindita; Burgess, Kelly; Aungst, Heide; Stange, Kurt C.; Brown, Kalanthe; Brooks-Terry, Margaret; Dec, Ellen; Jackson, Brigid; Gilliam, Jules; Kikano, George E.; Reichsman, Ann; Schaadt, Debbie; Hilfer, Jamie; Ticknor, Christine; Tyler, Carl V.; Van der Meulen, Anna; Ways, Heather; Weinberger, Richard F.; Williams, Christine

    2015-01-01

    PURPOSE The paradox of primary care is the observation that primary care is associated with apparently low levels of evidence-based care for individual diseases, but systems based on primary care have healthier populations, use fewer resources, and have less health inequality. The purpose of this article is to explore, from a complex systems perspective, mechanisms that might account for the effects of primary care beyond disease-specific care. METHODS In an 8-session, participatory group model-building process, patient, caregiver, and primary care clinician community stakeholders worked with academic investigators to develop and refine an agent-based computer simulation model to test hypotheses about mechanisms by which features of primary care could affect health and health equity. RESULTS In the resulting model, patients are at risk for acute illness, acute life-changing illness, chronic illness, and mental illness. Patients have changeable health behaviors and care-seeking tendencies that relate to their living in advantaged or disadvantaged neighborhoods. There are 2 types of care available to patients: primary and specialty. Primary care in the model is less effective than specialty care in treating single diseases, but it has the ability to treat multiple diseases at once. Primary care also can provide disease prevention visits, help patients improve their health behaviors, refer to specialty care, and develop relationships with patients that cause them to lower their threshold for seeking care. In a model run with primary care features turned off, primary care patients have poorer health. In a model run with all primary care features turned on, their conjoint effect leads to better population health for patients who seek primary care, with the primary care effect being particularly pronounced for patients who are disadvantaged and patients with multiple chronic conditions. Primary care leads to more total health care visits that are due to more disease

  4. MCM Paradox: Abundance of Eukaryotic Replicative Helicases and Genomic Integrity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Mitali; Singh, Sunita; Pradhan, Satyajit; Narayan, Gopeshwar

    2014-01-01

    As a crucial component of DNA replication licensing system, minichromosome maintenance (MCM) 2-7 complex acts as the eukaryotic DNA replicative helicase. The six related MCM proteins form a heterohexamer and bind with ORC, CDC6, and Cdt1 to form the prereplication complex. Although the MCMs are well known as replicative helicases, their overabundance and distribution patterns on chromatin present a paradox called the "MCM paradox." Several approaches had been taken to solve the MCM paradox and describe the purpose of excess MCMs distributed beyond the replication origins. Alternative functions of these MCMs rather than a helicase had also been proposed. This review focuses on several models and concepts generated to solve the MCM paradox coinciding with their helicase function and provides insight into the concept that excess MCMs are meant for licensing dormant origins as a backup during replication stress. Finally, we extend our view towards the effect of alteration of MCM level. Though an excess MCM constituent is needed for normal cells to withstand stress, there must be a delineation of the threshold level in normal and malignant cells. This review also outlooks the future prospects to better understand the MCM biology.

  5. Seismicity of the Paradox Basin and the Colorado Plateau interior

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, I.G.

    1984-04-01

    National Waste Terminal Storage Program site qualification criteria require that a nuclear waste repository be located so that ground motion associated with the maximum credible and maximum probable earthquakes or other earthquake-associated effects will not have an unacceptable adverse impact on system performance. To determine whether a potential repository site located in the Paradox salt formation in the Paradox Basin of southeastern Utah satisfies these criteria, seismological studies were undertaken by Woodward-Clyde Consultants (WCC) in March 1978. These studies included: (1) analysis of historical seismicity; (2) analysis of contemporary seismicity and tectonics of both the Paradox Basin and surrounding Colorado Plateau, including an extensive program of microearthquake monitoring; (3) evaluation of the Paradox Basin crustal structure; (4) evaluation of mining-induced seismicity; and (5) characterization of design-related earthquake-induced ground motions pertinent to a potential repository site through studies of attentation and subsurface ground motions. A detailed discussion of the results of the seismological studies performed through December 1980 is contained in WCC (1982). The purpose of this topical report is to update and summarize the studies on the local, regional, and mining-induced seismicity conducted through December 1982. The limitations of any interpretations are also discussed and additional information that remains to be acquired is identified. 56 references, 45 figures, 4 tables

  6. Weather Augmented Risk Determination (WARD) System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niknejad, M.; Mazdiyasni, O.; Momtaz, F.; AghaKouchak, A.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme climatic events have direct and indirect impacts on society, economy and the environment. Based on the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data, over one third of the U.S. GDP can be considered as weather-sensitive involving some degree of weather risk. This expands from a local scale concrete foundation construction to large scale transportation systems. Extreme and unexpected weather conditions have always been considered as one of the probable risks to human health, productivity and activities. The construction industry is a large sector of the economy, and is also greatly influenced by weather-related risks including work stoppage and low labor productivity. Identification and quantification of these risks, and providing mitigation of their effects are always the concerns of construction project managers. In addition to severe weather conditions' destructive effects, seasonal changes in weather conditions can also have negative impacts on human health. Work stoppage and reduced labor productivity can be caused by precipitation, wind, temperature, relative humidity and other weather conditions. Historical and project-specific weather information can improve better project management and mitigation planning, and ultimately reduce the risk of weather-related conditions. This paper proposes new software for project-specific user-defined data analysis that offers (a) probability of work stoppage and the estimated project length considering weather conditions; (b) information on reduced labor productivity and its impacts on project duration; and (c) probabilistic information on the project timeline based on both weather-related work stoppage and labor productivity. The software (WARD System) is designed such that it can be integrated into the already available project management tools. While the system and presented application focuses on the construction industry, the developed software is general and can be used for any application that involves

  7. Cannabinoid Hyperemesis Syndrome: A Paradoxical Cannabis Effect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivonne Marie Figueroa-Rivera

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Despite well-established antiemetic properties of marijuana, there has been increasing evidence of a paradoxical effect in the gastrointestinal tract and central nervous system, given rise to a new and underrecognized clinical entity called the Cannabinoid Hyperemesis Syndrome. Reported cases in the medical literature have established a series of patients exhibiting a classical triad of symptoms: cyclic vomiting, chronic marijuana use, and compulsive bathing. We present a case of a 29-year-old man whose clinical presentation strongly correlates with cannabinoid hyperemesis syndrome. Despite a diagnosis of exclusion, this syndrome should be considered plausible in the setting of a patient with recurrent intractable vomiting and a strong history of cannabis use as presented in this case.

  8. Risk management model in road transport systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakhapov, R. L.; Nikolaeva, R. V.; Gatiyatullin, M. H.; Makhmutov, M. M.

    2016-08-01

    The article presents the results of a study of road safety indicators that influence the development and operation of the transport system. Road safety is considered as a continuous process of risk management. Authors constructed a model that relates the social risks of a major road safety indicator - the level of motorization. The model gives a fairly accurate assessment of the level of social risk for any given level of motorization. Authors calculated the dependence of the level of socio-economic costs of accidents and injured people in them. The applicability of the concept of socio-economic damage is caused by the presence of a linear relationship between the natural and economic indicators damage from accidents. The optimization of social risk is reduced to finding the extremum of the objective function that characterizes the economic effect of the implementation of measures to improve safety. The calculations make it possible to maximize the net present value, depending on the costs of improving road safety, taking into account socio-economic damage caused by accidents. The proposed econometric models make it possible to quantify the efficiency of the transportation system, allow to simulate the change in road safety indicators.

  9. 13 CFR 120.1015 - Risk Rating System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk Rating System. 120.1015 Section 120.1015 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION BUSINESS LOANS Risk-Based Lender Oversight Supervision § 120.1015 Risk Rating System. (a) Risk Rating. SBA may assign a Risk Rating...

  10. A Krein quantization approach to Klein paradox

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Payandeh, Farrin; Fathi, Mohsen; Mohammad Pur, Toradj; Moghaddam, Zahra Gh.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper we first introduce the famous Klein paradox. Afterwards by proposing the Krein quantization approach and taking the negative modes into account, we will show that the expected and exact current densities could be achieved without confronting any paradox. (authors)

  11. The clock paradox as a cosmological problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fu, K.Y.

    1975-01-01

    In this paper the clock paradox is discussed within the framework of the general theory of relativity. It is shown that in general the aging asymmetry exists. It is also argued that the clock paradox, according to Mach's principle, is essentially a cosmological problem. (author)

  12. Negative freedom and the liberal paradoxes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Hees, M.V.B.P.M

    In their game-theoretic formulations, the liberal paradoxes of Amartya Sm and Alan Gibbard show a tension between freedom on the one hand, and Pareto optimality and stability on the other. This article examines what happens to the liberal paradoxes if a negative conception of freedom is used. Given

  13. Quantum Zeno and anti-Zeno paradoxes

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Abstract. Continuous observation of a time independent projection operator is known to prevent change of state (the quantum Zeno paradox). We discuss the recent result that generic continuous measurement of time dependent projection operators will in fact ensure change of state: an anti-Zeno paradox.

  14. Family Fathers Lost in Theatre Paradox

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kuhlmann, Annelis

    2008-01-01

    Diderot's influence on theatre is well known through The Paradox of Acting (Paradoxe sur le comédien). However, Diderot also wrote a few drames bourgeois, among which is The Family Father (Le Père de famille), which still in Diderot's days was edited in Copenhagen in French, and which in Danish...

  15. A Paradoxical Approach to Vocational Indecision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez, Frederick G.

    1983-01-01

    Describes a case study in which a paradoxical intervention was effectively used in treating a vocationally indecisive college student and his overly involved father. The quality of the father-son interaction improved as the student's anxiety decreased. Implications for the use of paradox in other situations are discussed. (Author/JAC)

  16. Virtue Acquisition: The Paradox of Striving

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snow, Nancy

    2016-01-01

    Aristotelian-inspired accounts of virtue acquisition stress guided practice and habituated action to develop virtue. This emphasis on action can lead to the "paradox of striving". The paradox occurs when we try too hard to act well and thereby spoil our efforts. I identify four forms of striving--forcing, impulsivity, overthinking, and…

  17. New Paradoxes of Risky Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birnbaum, Michael H.

    2008-01-01

    During the last 25 years, prospect theory and its successor, cumulative prospect theory, replaced expected utility as the dominant descriptive theories of risky decision making. Although these models account for the original Allais paradoxes, 11 new paradoxes show where prospect theories lead to self-contradiction or systematic false predictions.…

  18. Yule-Simpson's Paradox in Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goltz, Heather Honore; Smith, Matthew Lee

    2010-01-01

    Yule (1903) and Simpson (1951) described a statistical paradox that occurs when data is aggregated. In such situations, aggregated data may reveal a trend that directly contrasts those of sub-groups trends. In fact, the aggregate data trends may even be opposite in direction of sub-group trends. To reveal Yule-Simpson's paradox (YSP)-type…

  19. Contralateral paradoxical response to chemotherapy in tuberculous ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Pleural effusions may occur as a complication of primary tuberculosis or an established pulmonary or extrapulmonary infection. New formation or expansion of a tuberculous lesion during chemotherapy is referred to as paradoxical response. Paradoxical response has been described to occur weeks or months after starting ...

  20. Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, K.D.; McKay, M.K.; Sattison, M.B.; Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S.T.; Rasmuson, D.M.

    1992-01-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since that time, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 4.0 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 4.0 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as Version 1.0 and adds a relational data base facility for managing the data, improved functionality, and improved algorithm performance

  1. EPR paradox, quantum nonlocality and physical reality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kupczynski, M

    2016-01-01

    Eighty years ago Einstein, Podolsky and Rosen demonstrated that instantaneous reduction of wave function, believed to describe completely a pair of entangled physical systems, led to EPR paradox. The paradox disappears in statistical interpretation of quantum mechanics (QM) according to which a wave function describes only an ensemble of identically prepared physical systems. QM predicts strong correlations between outcomes of measurements performed on different members of EPR pairs in far-away locations. Searching for an intuitive explanation of these correlations John Bell analysed so called local realistic hidden variable models and proved that correlations consistent with these models satisfy Bell inequalities which are violated by some predictions of QM and by experimental data. Several different local models were constructed and inequalities proven. Some eminent physicists concluded that Nature is definitely nonlocal and that it is acting according to a law of nonlocal randomness. According to these law perfectly random, but strongly correlated events, can be produced at the same time in far away locations and a local and causal explanation of their occurrence cannot be given. We strongly disagree with this conclusion and we prove the contrary by analysing in detail some influential finite sample proofs of Bell and CHSH inequalities and so called Quantum Randi Challenges. We also show how one can win so called Bell's game without violating locality of Nature. Nonlocal randomness is inconsistent with local quantum field theory, with standard model in elementary particle physics and with causal laws and adaptive dynamics prevailing in the surrounding us world. The experimental violation of Bell-type inequalities does not prove the nonlocality of Nature but it only confirms a contextual character of quantum observables and gives a strong argument against counterfactual definiteness and against a point of view according to which experimental outcomes are

  2. EPR paradox, quantum nonlocality and physical reality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kupczynski, M.

    2016-03-01

    Eighty years ago Einstein, Podolsky and Rosen demonstrated that instantaneous reduction of wave function, believed to describe completely a pair of entangled physical systems, led to EPR paradox. The paradox disappears in statistical interpretation of quantum mechanics (QM) according to which a wave function describes only an ensemble of identically prepared physical systems. QM predicts strong correlations between outcomes of measurements performed on different members of EPR pairs in far-away locations. Searching for an intuitive explanation of these correlations John Bell analysed so called local realistic hidden variable models and proved that correlations consistent with these models satisfy Bell inequalities which are violated by some predictions of QM and by experimental data. Several different local models were constructed and inequalities proven. Some eminent physicists concluded that Nature is definitely nonlocal and that it is acting according to a law of nonlocal randomness. According to these law perfectly random, but strongly correlated events, can be produced at the same time in far away locations and a local and causal explanation of their occurrence cannot be given. We strongly disagree with this conclusion and we prove the contrary by analysing in detail some influential finite sample proofs of Bell and CHSH inequalities and so called Quantum Randi Challenges. We also show how one can win so called Bell's game without violating locality of Nature. Nonlocal randomness is inconsistent with local quantum field theory, with standard model in elementary particle physics and with causal laws and adaptive dynamics prevailing in the surrounding us world. The experimental violation of Bell-type inequalities does not prove the nonlocality of Nature but it only confirms a contextual character of quantum observables and gives a strong argument against counterfactual definiteness and against a point of view according to which experimental outcomes are produced

  3. Does Corporate Governance Impact Risk Management System?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petre BREZEANU

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper brings forth the contribution of corporate governance to risk management system at the enterprise level. The research is a complex one, integrating both quantitative and qualitative information. The quantitative information consists of balance sheet and profit and loss account data while the qualitative one includes dummy variables reflecting the agency and monitoring costs which govern the relationship between managers and shareholders.

  4. Failure detection system risk reduction assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguilar, Robert B. (Inventor); Huang, Zhaofeng (Inventor)

    2012-01-01

    A process includes determining a probability of a failure mode of a system being analyzed reaching a failure limit as a function of time to failure limit, determining a probability of a mitigation of the failure mode as a function of a time to failure limit, and quantifying a risk reduction based on the probability of the failure mode reaching the failure limit and the probability of the mitigation.

  5. [Five paradoxes in health promotion].

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Dicastillo, Olga; Canga-Armayor, Navidad; Mujika, Agurtzane; Pardavila-Belio, Miren Idoia; Belintxon, Maider; Serrano-Monzó, Inmaculada; Pumar-Méndez, María J

    The World Health Organization states that health promotion is a key strategy to improve health, and it is conceived as a global process of enabling people to increase control over, and to improve, their health. Health promotion does not focus solely on empowering individuals dealing with their knowledge, attitudes and skills, but it also takes political, social, economic and environmental aspects influencing health and wellbeing into account. The complexity of applying these concepts is reflected in the five paradoxes in health promotion; these arise in between the rhetoric in health promotion and implementation. The detected paradoxes which are described herein involve the patient versus the person, the individual versus the group, disease professionals versus health professionals, disease indicators versus health indicators, and health as an expense versus health as an investment. Making these contradictions explicit can help determine why it is so complex to put the concepts related to health promotion into practice. It can also help to put forward aspects that need further work if health promotion is to put into practice. Copyright © 2017 SESPAS. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  6. Peculiarities of the risk management system organization in current conditions

    OpenAIRE

    MIKHIN P.O.

    2014-01-01

    Risk-management system organization problem is topical nowadays. The innovation activity is defined as an activity vulnerable to risk and needs more attention. The basic approaches and elements of organization structure development in risk-management system are considered to find out the best structure for business modelling usage. Balance and combination of risk-management system types are required in current conditions.

  7. Obesity paradox in cancer: new insights provided by body composition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez, Maria Cristina; Pastore, Carla A; Orlandi, Silvana P; Heymsfield, Steven B

    2014-05-01

    Obesity, defined by body mass index (BMI), appears to have a paradoxical protective effect in several chronic diseases. We investigated the obesity paradox in cancer patients by using body composition. The study was an observational study of 175 cancer patients assessed before chemotherapy. Obesity was defined as BMI (in kg/m(2)) ≥30 or fat mass index (FMI; fat mass divided by the square of height) ≥5.2 (men) and ≥8.2 (women) measured by using a bioelectrical impedance analysis. Low muscle mass (sarcopenia) was defined as fat-free mass index (fat-free mass divided by the square of height) cancer patients only when obesity is defined by BMI. Patients with sarcopenic obesity had the poorest prognosis. Cancer patients with high mortality risk can be identified by a body-composition assessment.

  8. Managerial Challenges Within Networks - Emphasizing the Paradox of Network Participation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jakobsen, Morten

    2003-01-01

    Flexibility and access to numerous resources are essential benefits associated with network participation. An important aspect of managing the network participation of a company is to maintain a dynamic portfolio of partners, and thereby keep up the strategic opportunities for development. However......, maintaining the dynamics within a network seems to be a complex challenge. There is a risk that the network ends up in The Paradox of Network Participation. The desired renewal and flexibility are not utilised because the involved parties preserve the existing networks structure consisting of the same...... and thereby sort out the paradox of network participation. Trust and information are mechanisms employed to absorb uncertainty. The relationship between trust and the requirement for information depends on the maturity of the relationship. When trust becomes too important as uncertainty absorption mechanism...

  9. Managerial challenges within networks: emphasizing the paradox of network participation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jakobsen, Morten

    Flexibility and access to numerous resources are essential benefits associated with network participation. An important aspect of managing the network participation of a company is to maintain a dynamic portfolio of partners, and thereby keep up the strategic opportunities for development. However......, maintaining the dynamics within a network seems to be a complex challenge. There is a risk that the network ends up in The Paradox of Network Participation. The desired renewal and flexibility are not utilised because the involved parties preserve the existing networks structure consisting of the same...... and thereby sort out the paradox of network participation. Trust and information are mechanisms employed to absorb uncertainty. The relationship between trust and the requirement for information depends on the maturity of the relationship. When trust becomes too important as uncertainty absorption mechanism...

  10. The Obesity Paradox in Kidney Disease: How to Reconcile It With Obesity Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kamyar Kalantar-Zadeh

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Obesity, a risk factor for de novo chronic kidney disease (CKD, confers survival advantages in advanced CKD. This so-called obesity paradox is the archetype of the reverse epidemiology of cardiovascular risks, in addition to the lipid, blood pressure, adiponectin, homocysteine, and uric acid paradoxes. These paradoxical phenomena are in sharp contradistinction to the known epidemiology of cardiovascular risks in the general population. In addition to advanced CKD, the obesity paradox has also been observed in heart failure, chronic obstructive lung disease, liver cirrhosis, and metastatic cancer, as well as in elderly individuals. These are populations in whom protein−energy wasting and inflammation are strong predictors of early death. Both larger muscle mass and higher body fat provide longevity in these patients, whereas thinner body habitus and weight loss are associated with higher mortality. Muscle mass appears to be superior to body fat in conferring an even greater survival. The obesity paradox may be the result of a time discrepancy between competing risk factors, that is, overnutrition as the long-term killer versus undernutrition as the short-term killer. Hemodynamic stability of obesity, lipoprotein defense against circulating endotoxins, protective cytokine profiles, toxin sequestration of fat mass, and antioxidation of muscle may play important roles. Despite claims that the obesity paradox is a statistical fallacy and a result of residual confounding, the consistency of data and other causality clues suggest a high biologic plausibility. Examining the causes and consequences of the obesity paradox may help uncover important pathophysiologic mechanisms leading to improved outcomes in patients with CKD.

  11. Questionnaire-based risk assessment system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sakajo, Satoko; Ohi, Tadashi

    2004-01-01

    In order to reduce human errors efficiently, it is important to evaluate error-likely tasks and improve them. There are a lot of evaluation methods, for example, experimental evaluation methods, investigations by the expert of human factors, checking guidelines, estimating human error probabilities, and so on. There are roughly two problems in those methods. (1) Qualitative evaluation methods do not evaluate how likely human errors will occur and do not estimate how effective the countermeasure is in reducing human error. (2) Most of the quantitative evaluation methods and detailed analysis methods require expert's judgment. We developed a questionnaire-based risk assessment method and its system. In this paper, we introduce the concept of the method, realization, and applications to a maintenance procedure of a nuclear power plant and an elevator. The feature of the method is that it is so simple and the inexpert can easily evaluate the risk of human error. Furthermore, because it is provided as an application service provider system, a lot of evaluators can use it simultaneously through internet and it is easy to collect and sum up the responses. We confirmed that it is useful to evaluate the risk of human error, analyze the problem, and estimate the effectiveness of countermeasures in advance through the applications. (author)

  12. Glycemic control paradox: Poor glycemic control associated with higher one-year and eight-year risks of all-cause hospitalization but lower one-year risk of hypoglycemia in patients with type 2 diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Tsai-Chung; Kardia, Sharon L R; Li, Chia-Ing; Chen, Ching-Chu; Liu, Chiu-Shong; Yang, Sing-Yu; Muo, Chin-Shin; Peyser, Patricia A; Lin, Cheng-Chieh

    2015-09-01

    The relationship between glycemic control and adverse outcomes found in a population with diabetes has seldom been evaluated in patients with type 2 diabetes. We explored the association between hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and hospitalization risks within one-year and eight-year follow-up periods. We conducted a retrospective cohort study on 57,061 patients with type 2 diabetes from National Diabetes Case Management Program during 2002-2004 in Taiwan. HbA1c at baseline and in-hospital mortality, all-cause and cause-specific hospitalization over one year and eight years were analyzed. After multivariate adjustment, one-year risk was higher for cases with HbA1c level risk of hypoglycemia hospitalization (0.81, 95% CI: 0.74-0.88). For eight-year risk, subjects with HbA1c level risks of all-cause and diabetes-related hospitalization (1.04, 1.03-1.05, and 1.15, 1.14-1.17, respectively). Higher HbA1c level correlated with lower one-year risk due to hypoglycemia hospitalization but increased one-year and eight-year risks due to all-cause and diabetes-specific hospitalization among Chinese people with type 2 diabetes in Taiwan. Future study must ascertain how to meet HbA1c targets and improve outcome without risk to this population. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. TOXPERT: An Expert System for Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soto, R. J.; Osimitz, T. G.; Oleson, A.

    1988-01-01

    TOXPERT is an artificial intelligence based system used to model product safety, toxicology (TOX) and regulatory (REG) decision processes. An expert system shell uses backward chaining rule control to link “marketing approval” goals to the type of product, REG agency, exposure conditions and TOX. Marketing risks are primarily a function of the TOX, hazards and exposure potential. The method employed differentiates between REG requirements in goal seeking control for various types of products. This is accomplished by controlling rule execution by defining frames for each REG agency. In addition, TOXPERT produces classifications of TOX ratings and suggested product labeling. This production rule system uses principles of TOX, REGs, corporate guidelines and internal “rules of thumb.” TOXPERT acts as an advisor for this narrow domain. Advantages are that it can make routine decisions freeing professional's time for more complex problem solving, provide backup and training.

  14. Systemic risk on different interbank network topologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenzu, Simone; Tedeschi, Gabriele

    2012-09-01

    In this paper we develop an interbank market with heterogeneous financial institutions that enter into lending agreements on different network structures. Credit relationships (links) evolve endogenously via a fitness mechanism based on agents' performance. By changing the agent's trust on its neighbor's performance, interbank linkages self-organize themselves into very different network architectures, ranging from random to scale-free topologies. We study which network architecture can make the financial system more resilient to random attacks and how systemic risk spreads over the network. To perturb the system, we generate a random attack via a liquidity shock. The hit bank is not automatically eliminated, but its failure is endogenously driven by its incapacity to raise liquidity in the interbank network. Our analysis shows that a random financial network can be more resilient than a scale free one in case of agents' heterogeneity.

  15. Paradoxical embolization via a patent foramen ovale following acute pulmonary embolism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, D.V.; Bynevelt, V.; Price, R.

    2005-01-01

    The foramen ovale is usually obliterated following establishment of the adult circulation but remains patent in 25% of individuals. This potential communication between the venous and arterial circulations can allow thromboembolic material to bypass the lungs and enter the systemic circulation. We report two cases of paradoxical embolization through a patent foramen ovale following acute large pulmonary embolism (PE) and discuss the factors that predispose to paradoxical embolization following PE Copyright (2005) Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd

  16. Paradoxical Behavior of Granger Causality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witt, Annette; Battaglia, Demian; Gail, Alexander

    2013-03-01

    Granger causality is a standard tool for the description of directed interaction of network components and is popular in many scientific fields including econometrics, neuroscience and climate science. For time series that can be modeled as bivariate auto-regressive processes we analytically derive an expression for spectrally decomposed Granger Causality (SDGC) and show that this quantity depends only on two out of four groups of model parameters. Then we present examples of such processes whose SDGC expose paradoxical behavior in the sense that causality is high for frequency ranges with low spectral power. For avoiding misinterpretations of Granger causality analysis we propose to complement it by partial spectral analysis. Our findings are illustrated by an example from brain electrophysiology. Finally, we draw implications for the conventional definition of Granger causality. Bernstein Center for Computational Neuroscience Goettingen

  17. The paradox of atheoretical classification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hjørland, Birger

    2016-01-01

    A distinction can be made between “artificial classifications” and “natural classifications,” where artificial classifications may adequately serve some limited purposes, but natural classifications are overall most fruitful by allowing inference and thus many different purposes. There is strong...... support for the view that a natural classification should be based on a theory (and, of course, that the most fruitful theory provides the most fruitful classification). Nevertheless, atheoretical (or “descriptive”) classifications are often produced. Paradoxically, atheoretical classifications may...... be very successful. The best example of a successful “atheoretical” classification is probably the prestigious Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) since its third edition from 1980. Based on such successes one may ask: Should the claim that classifications ideally are natural...

  18. Paradoxes unbounded: Practising community making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tess Maginess

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The first section of this paper is a discussion of the paradoxes contained in definitionsof the word 'community' and deliberately foregrounds and makes problematicconflicting meanings before arguing for a third definition and practice of community.This third definition and practice celebrates and even transcends contradictions withinan active learning model of education in the community, aimed at tackling inequalityand prejudice. The second section offers an autocritical narrative account of aneducation in the community project that illustrates how such a practice of communitymaking can be achieved within an educational framework in which pupil is teacher andteacher is pupil and in which an imaginative, creative approach is deployed toconstruct a community making practice. The paper draws on understandings fromcommunity development, inclusive and creative education, emancipatory actionresearch, postcolonial and post-structuralist theory.

  19. Conjunct rotation: Codman's paradox revisited.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, Sebastian I; Fradet, Laetitia; Rettig, Oliver

    2009-05-01

    This contribution mathematically formalizes Codman's idea of conjunct rotation, a term he used in 1934 to describe a paradoxical phenomenon arising from a closed-loop arm movement. Real (axial) rotation is distinguished from conjunct rotation. For characterizing the latter, the idea of reference vector fields is developed to define the neutral axial position of the humerus for any given orientation of its long axis. This concept largely avoids typical coordinate singularities arising from decomposition of 3D joint motion and therefore can be used for postural (axial) assessment of the shoulder joint both clinically and in sports science in almost the complete accessible range of motion. The concept, even though algebraic rather complex, might help to get an easier and more intuitive understanding of axial rotation of the shoulder in complex movements present in daily life and in sports.

  20. CRISIS: A System for Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erica Y. Sanchez

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available In a situation of an unexpected catastrophe, uncertainty and demand for information are constant. In such a disaster scenario, the CRISIS system arises as a tool to contribute to previous coordination, procedure validation, exercise execution, a good and frequent communication among organizations, and weakness and threat assessment for an appropriate risk management. It offers a wide variety of tools for online communication, consultation and collaboration that, up to this day, includes cartography, tasks, resources, news, forums, instant messaging and chat. As a complement, mathematical models for training and emergency management are being researched and developed. For Argentinean society, it is a necessity to switch from the current handcrafted, bureaucratic emergency management method to a decision-making management model. Previous coordination, exercise execution, a fluid communication among institutions, and threats and weaknesses assessment are required for a proper risk management. With that goal in mind, it is important to reduce confusion, avoid the duplication of efforts to fulfill the same tasks, and have access to a complete vision of the situation, generated from the data of all the organizations taking part. The CRISIS system is a secure web application, accessible to every node in a network formed by the organizations which have complementary responsibilities during prevention and response. It offers a wide variety of tools for online communication, consultation and collaboration that, up to this day, includes cartography, tasks, media (organization and resources, news, forums, instant messaging and chat. As a complement, mathematical models for training and emergency management are being researched and developed. Currently, there are toxicological and epidemiological emergency models available. The present paper analyses, from the perspectives related to risk management for emergencies and disasters, the strengths and weaknesses

  1. Inter-system LOCA risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galyean, W.J.; Kelly, D.L.; Schroeder, J.A.

    1991-01-01

    Inter-systems loss-of-coolant accidents (ISLOCAs) have been included in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) since WASH-1400. While estimated as being relatively low contributors to core damage frequency, ISLOCAs have been identified as major contributors to risk at nuclear power plants (NPPs). They have the potential to result in core melt and containment bypass, which may lead to the early release of large quantities of fission products. Recent events at several operating reactors have been identified as ISLOCA precursors. The occurrence of these events have raised concerns that the frequency of ISLOCA sequences might be underestimated in current state-of-the-art PRAs. In order to expand the current state-of-the-art, a Nuclear Regulatory Commission research program is being conducted by ED and G Idaho, Inc. at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. The objective of the ISLOCA research program is to generate qualitative and quantitative information on the hardware, human factors, and accident consequence issues that dominate nuclear power plant risks for ISLOCA. To meet this objective, the approach being taken includes analysis of all interfaces between the primary reactor coolant system and other, lower pressure systems. This historical experience (primarily, licensee event reports) has provided the basis for determining the scope of the analysis with respect to potential failure mechanisms of the pressure isolation boundary. It is important to note that in the vast majority of these events, the dominant failure was a human error. Because of their significance, human errors are given particular attention in the present analysis

  2. Optical tweezers and paradoxes in electromagnetism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pfeifer, Robert N C; Nieminen, Timo A; Heckenberg, Norman R; Rubinsztein-Dunlop, Halina

    2011-01-01

    The widespread application of optical forces and torques has contributed to renewed interest in the fundamentals of the electromagnetic force and torque, including long-standing paradoxes such as the Abraham–Minkowski controversy and the angular momentum density of a circularly polarized plane wave. We discuss the relationship between these electromagnetic paradoxes and optical tweezers. In particular, consideration of possible optical tweezers experiments to attempt to resolve these paradoxes strongly suggests that they are beyond experimental resolution, yielding identical observable results in all cases

  3. Second Parrondo's Paradox in Scale Free Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Toyota, Norihito

    2012-01-01

    Parrondo's paradox occurs in sequences of games in which a winning expectation value of a payoff may be obtained by playing two games in a random order, even though each game in the sequence may be lost when played individually.Several variations of Parrondo's games apparently with the same paradoxical property have been introduced by G.P. Harmer and D. Abbott; history dependence, one dimensional line, two dimensional lattice and so on. I have shown that Parrondo's paradox does not occur in s...

  4. Robust Quantitative Comparative Statics for a Multimarket Paradox

    OpenAIRE

    Tobias Harks; Philipp von Falkenhausen

    2013-01-01

    We introduce a quantitative approach to comparative statics that allows to bound the maximum effect of an exogenous parameter change on a system's equilibrium. The motivation for this approach is a well known paradox in multimarket Cournot competition, where a positive price shock on a monopoly market may actually reduce the monopolist's profit. We use our approach to quantify for the first time the worst case profit reduction for multimarket oligopolies exposed to arbitrary positive price sh...

  5. A SURVEY OF INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL RISK MANAGEMENT SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SETHI Narayan

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Rising global competition, increasing deregulation, and introduction of innovative products have pushed financial risk management to the forefront of today's financial landscape. Identification of different types of risks and effective management of these risks in the international financial system would help to alleviate crisis, financial losses and also helpful to the long term success of all the financial institutions. The present study aims to analyze different types of risk management strategies and throws some light on challenges and opportunities regarding implementation of Basel-II in international financial system. The present paper also attempts to discuss the different methods and techniques used to measure financial risk management. There are three types of risk faced by all financial institutions: market risk, credit risk and operational risk. In commercial banking, credit risk is the biggest risk; in investment banking, its market risk; and in asset management, it’s operational risk.

  6. Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen paradox and quantum steering in pulsed optomechanics

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Q. Y.; Reid, M. D.

    2013-11-01

    We describe how to generate an Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen (EPR) paradox between a mesoscopic mechanical oscillator and an optical pulse. We find two types of paradox, defined by whether it is the oscillator or the pulse that shows the effect Schrödinger called “steering”. Only the oscillator paradox addresses the question of mesoscopic local reality for a massive system. In that case, EPR's “elements of reality” are defined for the oscillator, and it is these elements of reality that are falsified (if quantum mechanics is complete). For this sort of paradox, we show that a thermal barrier exists, meaning that a threshold level of pulse-oscillator interaction is required for a given thermal occupation n0 of the oscillator. We find there is no equivalent thermal barrier for the entanglement of the pulse with the oscillator or for the EPR paradox that addresses the local reality of the optical system. Finally, we examine the possibility of an EPR paradox between two entangled oscillators. Our work highlights the asymmetrical effect of thermal noise on quantum nonlocality.

  7. Essays on Systemic Risk : An analysis from multiple perspectives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Muns (Sander)

    2016-01-01

    markdownabstractThis thesis is about systemic risk in the financial sector. It considers several aspects of systemic risk. It is a building block for an analysis of the impact of systemic risk on the real economy. It appears that stocks in the financial industry show a strong interdependence

  8. The Merger Paradox and R&D

    OpenAIRE

    MIYAGIWA, Kaz; WAN, Jiangyun(Yunyun)

    2015-01-01

    The merger paradox is revisited in the presence of cost-reducing R&D in Cournot oligopoly. Two cases are found, in which merger is profitable without satisfying the 80-percent threshold requirement of Salant et al (1983).

  9. New loophole for the EPR paradox

    OpenAIRE

    Feldmann, Michel

    1999-01-01

    We exhibit a classical model free from any paradox which exactly simulates the spin EPR test. We conclude that Bell's inequality violation is a strictly classical phenomenon, contrary to a general belief.

  10. six six six paradox : [luuletused] / Triin Tasuja

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Tasuja, Triin

    2008-01-01

    Sisu: six six six paradox ; cat stevens ; "vahel tundub, et mu ümber..." ; sääse ; Salaalaealised ; kolkalapsed ; longin mööda lumiseid tänavaid ; punkrock dekadents ; "Igast kirjaneitsist..." ; "mina olengi see saikochick..."

  11. Corporal punishment contestations, paradoxes and implications for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Corporal punishment contestations, paradoxes and implications for school leadership: A case study of two South African high schools. ... South African Journal of Education. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current ...

  12. The three paradoxes of patient flow: an explanatory case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreindler, Sara A

    2017-07-12

    Health systems in many jurisdictions struggle to reduce Emergency Department congestion and improve patient flow across the continuum of care. Flow is often described as a systemic issue requiring a "system approach"; however, the implications of this idea remain poorly understood. Focusing on a Canadian regional health system whose flow problems have been particularly intractable, this study sought to determine what system-level flaws impede healthcare organizations from improving flow. This study drew primarily on qualitative data from in-depth interviews with 62 senior, middle and departmental managers representing the Region, its programs and sites; quantitative analysis of key flow indicators (1999-2012) and review of ~700 documents furnished important context. Examination of the interview data revealed that the most striking feature of the dataset was contradiction; accordingly, a technique of dialectical analysis was developed to examine observed contradictions at successively deeper levels. Analysis uncovered three paradoxes: "Many Small Successes and One Big Failure" (initiatives improve parts of the system but fail to fix underlying system constraints); "Your Innovation Is My Aggravation" (local innovation clashes with regional integration); and most critically, "Your Order Is My Chaos" (rules that improve service organization for my patients create obstacles for yours). This last emerges when some entities (sites/hospitals) define their patients in terms of their location in the system, while others (regional programs) define them in terms of their needs/characteristics. As accountability for improving flow was distributed among groups that thus variously defined their patients, local efforts achieved little for the overall system, and often clashed with each other. These paradoxes are indicative of a fundamental antagonism between the system's parts and the whole. An accretion of flow initiatives in all parts of the system will never add up to a system

  13. Spin entanglement, decoherence and Bohm's EPR paradox

    OpenAIRE

    Cavalcanti, E. G.; Drummond, P. D.; Bachor, H. A.; Reid, M. D.

    2007-01-01

    We obtain criteria for entanglement and the EPR paradox for spin-entangled particles and analyse the effects of decoherence caused by absorption and state purity errors. For a two qubit photonic state, entanglement can occur for all transmission efficiencies. In this case, the state preparation purity must be above a threshold value. However, Bohm's spin EPR paradox can be achieved only above a critical level of loss. We calculate a required efficiency of 58%, which appears achievable with cu...

  14. Risk assessment of power systems models, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Wenyuan

    2014-01-01

    Risk Assessment of Power Systems addresses the regulations and functions of risk assessment with regard to its relevance in system planning, maintenance, and asset management. Brimming with practical examples, this edition introduces the latest risk information on renewable resources, the smart grid, voltage stability assessment, and fuzzy risk evaluation. It is a comprehensive reference of a highly pertinent topic for engineers, managers, and upper-level students who seek examples of risk theory applications in the workplace.

  15. Tectonic isolation from regional sediment sourcing of the Paradox Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, T. M.; Saylor, J.; Sundell, K. E.; Lapen, T. J.

    2017-12-01

    The Appalachian and Ouachita-Marathon mountain ranges were created by a series of tectonic collisions that occurred through the middle and late Paleozoic along North America's eastern and southern margins, respectively. Previous work employing detrital zircon U-Pb geochronology has demonstrated that fluvial and eolian systems transported Appalachian-derived sediment across the continent to North America's Paleozoic western margin. However, contemporaneous intraplate deformation of the Ancestral Rocky Mountains (ARM) compartmentalized much of the North American western interior and mid-continent. We employ lithofacies characterization, stratigraphic thickness, paleocurrent data, sandstone petrography, and detrital zircon U-Pb geochronology to evaluate source-sink relationships of the Paradox Basin, which is one of the most prominent ARM basins. Evaluation of provenance is conducted through quantitative comparison of detrital zircon U-Pb distributions from basin samples and potential sources via detrital zircon mixture modeling, and is augmented with sandstone petrography. Mixing model results provide a measure of individual source contributions to basin stratigraphy, and are combined with outcrop and subsurface data (e.g., stratigraphic thickness and facies distributions) to create tectonic isolation maps. These maps elucidate drainage networks and the degree to which local versus regional sources influence sediment character within a single basin, or multiple depocenters. Results show that despite the cross-continental ubiquity of Appalachian-derived sediment, fluvial and deltaic systems throughout much of the Paradox Basin do not record their influence. Instead, sediment sourcing from the Uncompahgre Uplift, which has been interpreted to drive tectonic subsidence and formation of the Paradox Basin, completely dominated its sedimentary record. Further, the strong degree of tectonic isolation experienced by the Paradox Basin appears to be an emerging, yet common

  16. Matrix- based logic for avoiding paradoxes and its paraconsistent alternative

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Weingartner

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The present article shows that there are consistent and decidable many- valued systems of propositional logic which satisfy two or all the three criteria for non- trivial inconsistent theories by da Costa (1974. The weaker one of these paraconsistent system is also able to avoid a series of paradoxes which come up when classical logic is applied to empirical sciences. These paraconsistent systems are based on a 6- valued system of propositional logic for avoiding difficulties in several domains of empirical science (Weingartner (2009.

  17. Radiation risks to the developing nervous system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kriegel, H.; Schmahl, W.; Stieve, F.E.; Gerber, G.B.

    1986-01-01

    A symposium dealing with 'Radiation Risks to the Developing Nervous System' held at Neuherberg, June 18-20, 1985 was organised by the Radiation Protection Programme of the Commission of the European Communities and the Gesellschaft fuer Strahlen- und Umweltforschung mbH. The proceedings of this symposium present up-to-date information on the development of the nervous system and the modifications caused by prenatal radiation there upon. A large part of the proceedings is devoted to the consequences of prenatal irradiation in experimental animals with respect to alterations in morphology, biochemistry and behaviour, to the influence of dose, dose rate and radiation quality and to the question whether damage of the brain can arise from a synergistic action of radiation together with other agents. Since animal models for damage to the human central nervous system have inherent short-comings due to the differences in structure, complexity and development it is discussed how experimental studies could be applied to the human situation. The most recent data on persons exposed in utero at Hiroshima and Nagasaki are reviewed. A round table discussion, published in full, analyses all this information with a view to radiation protection, and defines the areas where future studies are needed. Separate abstracts were prepared for papers in these proceedings. (orig./MG)

  18. Perspectives on Games, Computers, and Mental Health: Questions about Paradoxes, Evidences, and Challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desseilles, Martin

    2016-01-01

    In the field of mental health, games and computerized games present questions about paradoxes, evidences, and challenges. This perspective article offers perspectives and personal opinion about these questions, evidences, and challenges with an objective of presenting several ideas and issues in this rapidly developing field. First, games raise some questions in the sense of the paradox between a game and an issue, as well as the paradox of using an amusing game to treat a serious pathology. Second, games also present evidence in the sense that they involve relationships with others, as well as learning, communication, language, emotional regulation, and hedonism. Third, games present challenges, such as the risk of abuse, the critical temporal period that may be limited to childhood, their important influence on sociocognitive learning and the establishment of social norms, and the risk of misuse of games.

  19. Risk Analysis Approach to Rainwater Harvesting Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadia Ursino

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Urban rainwater reuse preserves water resources and promotes sustainable development in rapidly growing urban areas. The efficiency of a large number of urban water reuse systems, operating under different climate and demand conditions, is evaluated here on the base of a new risk analysis approach. Results obtained by probability analysis (PA indicate that maximum efficiency in low demanding scenarios is above 0.5 and a threshold, distinguishing low from high demanding scenarios, indicates that in low demanding scenarios no significant improvement in performance may be attained by increasing the storage capacity of rainwater harvesting tanks. Threshold behaviour is displayed when tank storage capacity is designed to match both the average collected volume and the average reuse volume. The low demand limit cannot be achieved under climate and operating conditions characterized by a disproportion between harvesting and demand volume.

  20. Impact Of Exogenous And Endogenous Risks On Systemic Risk In Indonesian Banking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alfiana

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Weaknesses of the Banking Pressure Index and Financial Stability Index as an early detection system were not to involve contagion and bank run. This study aimed at determining impacts of endogenous and exogenous risks on systemic risks. It was a descriptive verificatory study using monthly secondary data of 2011-2014 and multiple regressions. Utilizing credit risk liquidity risk market risk capital adequacy risk contagion bank run inflation BI rate exchange rate and systemic risk variables of the 2011-2014 period it turned out that only endogenous risks of contagion and bank run variables impacted on systemic risk in Indonesian banking. The result showed that after the test of classical linear regression assumption credit risk capital adequacy risk contagion bank run and inflation variables simultaneously impacted on systemic risk and contributed to the movement of systemic risk. However our findings suggested that only contagion CONT bank run BR and inflation INF variables significantly impacted on systemic risk in a positive direction.

  1. THE MODEL FOR RISK ASSESSMENT ERP-SYSTEMS INFORMATION SECURITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. S. Oladko

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the problem assessment of information security risks in the ERP-system. ERP-system functions and architecture are studied. The model malicious impacts on levels of ERP-system architecture are composed. Model-based risk assessment, which is the quantitative and qualitative approach to risk assessment, built on the partial unification 3 methods for studying the risks of information security - security models with full overlapping technique CRAMM and FRAP techniques developed.

  2. Evaluation of seismic reflection data in the Davis and Lavender Canyons study area, Paradox Basin, Utah

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kitcho, C.A.; Wong, I.G.; Turcotte, F.T.

    1986-08-01

    Seismic reflection data purchased from petroleum industry brokers and acquired through group speculative surveys were interpreted for information on the regional subsurface geologic structure and stratigraphy within and surrounding the Davis and Lavender Canyons study area in the Paradox Basin of southeastern Utah. Structures of interest were faults, folds, joints, and collapse structures related to salt dissolution. The seismic reflection data were used to interpret stratigraphy by identifying continuous and discontinuous reflectors on the seismic profiles. Thickening and thinning of strata and possible areas of salt flowage or dissolution could be identified from the seismic data. Identifiable reflectors included the tops of the Precambrian and Mississippian, a distinctive interbed close to the middle of the Pennsylvanian Paradox salt formation (probably the interval between Salt Cycles 10 and 13), and near the top of the Paradox salt. Of the 56 faults identified from the seismic reflection interpretation, 33 trend northwest, west-northwest, or west, and most affect only the deeper part of the stratigraphic section. These faults are part of the deep structural system found throughout the Paradox Basin, including the fold and fault belt in the northeast part of the basin. The faults bound basement Precambrian blocks that experienced minor activity during Mississippian and early Pennsylvanian deposition, and showed major displacement during early Paradox salt deposition as the Paradox Basin subsided. Based on the seismic data, most of these faults appear to have an upward terminus between the top of the Mississippian and the salt interbed reflector

  3. The Paradox of Equal Opportunities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mitja Sardoč

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The basic assumption of the idea of equal opportunities is based on the assertion that all individuals competing for an advantaged social position should have equal opportunities, i.e., that each and every one of them should have fair opportunities to achieve a particular goal. Despite the fact that equal opportunities is one of the basic mechanisms for a just distribution of advantageous social positions, the idea of fair equality of opportunity remains divided between different competing political projects, e.g., egalitarian liberalism, libertarian political theory, multiculturalism, etc. This paper examines two basic dimensions of equal opportunities to which existing conceptions fail to offer a unanimous answer, i.e., a the issue of fairness and b the issue of the currency of fairness. The concluding part of this paper presents two basic paradoxes that determine both the direction of the discussion as well as the possible solutions to the achievement of fair equal opportunities as part of any process for competing for advantageous social positions.

  4. Geologic appraisal of Paradox basin salt deposits for water emplacement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hite, Robert J.; Lohman, Stanley William

    1973-01-01

    Thick salt deposits of Middle Pennsylvanian age are present in an area of 12,000 square miles in the Paradox basin of southeast Utah and southwest Colorado. The deposits are in the Paradox Member of the Hermosa Formation. The greatest thickness of this evaporite sequence is in a troughlike depression adjacent to the Uncompahgre uplift on the northeast side of the basin.The salt deposits consist of a cyclical sequence of thick halite units separated by thin units of black shale, dolomite, and anhydrite. Many halite units are several hundred feet thick and locally contain economically valuable potash deposits.Over much of the Paradox basin the salt deposits occur at depths of more than 5,000 feet. Only in a series of salt anticlines located along the northeastern side of the basin do the salt deposits rise to relatively shallow depths. The salt anticlines can be divided geographically and structurally into five major systems. Each system consists of a long undulating welt of thickened salt over which younger rocks are arched in anticlinal form. Locally there are areas along the axes of the anticlines where the Paradox Member was never covered by younger sediments. This allowed large-scale migration of Paradox strata toward and up through these holes in the sediment cover forming diapiric anticlines.The central or salt-bearing cores of the anticlines range in thickness from about 2,500 to 14,000 feet. Structure in the central core of the salt anticlines is the result of both regional-compression and flowage of the Paradox Member into the anticlines from adjacent synclines. Structure in the central cores of the salt anticlines ranges from relatively undeformed beds to complexly folded and faulted masses, in which stratigraphic continuity is undemonstrable.The presence of thick cap rock .over many of the salt anticlines is evidence of removal of large volumes of halite by groundwater. Available geologic and hydrologic information suggests that this is a relatively slow

  5. Designing and evaluating risk-based surveillance systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willeberg, Preben; Nielsen, Liza Rosenbaum; Salman, Mo

    2012-01-01

    Risk-based surveillance systems reveal occurrence of disease or infection in a sample of population units, which are selected on the basis of risk factors for the condition under study. The purpose of such systems for supporting practical animal disease policy formulations and management decisions...... with prudent use of resources while maintaining acceptable system performance. High-risk category units are selected for testing by identification of the presence of specific high-risk factor(s), while disregarding other factors that might also influence the risk. On this basis we argue that the most...... applicable risk estimate for use in designing and evaluating a risk-based surveillance system would be a crude (unadjusted) relative risk, odds ratio or apparent prevalence. Risk estimates found in the published literature, however, are often the results of multivariable analyses implicitly adjusting...

  6. Reducing acquisition risk through integrated systems of systems engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gross, Andrew; Hobson, Brian; Bouwens, Christina

    2016-05-01

    In the fall of 2015, the Joint Staff J7 (JS J7) sponsored the Bold Quest (BQ) 15.2 event and conducted planning and coordination to combine this event into a joint event with the Army Warfighting Assessment (AWA) 16.1 sponsored by the U.S. Army. This multipurpose event combined a Joint/Coalition exercise (JS J7) with components of testing, training, and experimentation required by the Army. In support of Assistant Secretary of the Army for Acquisition, Logistics, and Technology (ASA(ALT)) System of Systems Engineering and Integration (SoSE&I), Always On-On Demand (AO-OD) used a system of systems (SoS) engineering approach to develop a live, virtual, constructive distributed environment (LVC-DE) to support risk mitigation utilizing this complex and challenging exercise environment for a system preparing to enter limited user test (LUT). AO-OD executed a requirements-based SoS engineering process starting with user needs and objectives from Army Integrated Air and Missile Defense (AIAMD), Patriot units, Coalition Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (CISR), Focused End State 4 (FES4) Mission Command (MC) Interoperability with Unified Action Partners (UAP), and Mission Partner Environment (MPE) Integration and Training, Tactics and Procedures (TTP) assessment. The SoS engineering process decomposed the common operational, analytical, and technical requirements, while utilizing the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) Distributed Simulation Engineering and Execution Process (DSEEP) to provide structured accountability for the integration and execution of the AO-OD LVC-DE. As a result of this process implementation, AO-OD successfully planned for, prepared, and executed a distributed simulation support environment that responsively satisfied user needs and objectives, demonstrating the viability of an LVC-DE environment to support multiple user objectives and support risk mitigation activities for systems in the acquisition process.

  7. [The paradoxical effect of persuasive communication in health education sessions].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piperini, Marie-Christine

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the communication dynamics leading to the adoption of new attitudes and cognitions in health education sessions. We examined the verbal interactions at work in persuasive communication in 16 health education sessions. The study found that the medical expertise of the educator and the initial level of commitment of the participants had a positive effect on adherence to recommendations. However, persuasive communication in health education sessions appears to involve a paradoxical process in which criticism of the message can go hand in hand with the expression of an intention to implement new risk-reducing behaviors.

  8. Antiparticle in Light of Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen Paradox and Klein Paradox

    OpenAIRE

    Ni, Guang-jiong; Guan, Hong; Zhou, Weimin; Yan, Jun

    2000-01-01

    The original version of Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen (EPR) paradox and the Klein paradox of Klein-Gordon (KG) equation are discussed to show the necessity of existence of antiparticle with its wavefunction being fixed unambiguously. No concept of "hole" is needed.

  9. Construction Management Risk System (CMRS for Construction Management (CM Firms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyungmo Park

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available After the global financial crisis of 2008, the need for risk management arose because it was necessary to minimize the losses in construction management (CM firms. This was caused by a decreased amount of orders in the Korean CM market, which intensified order competition between companies. However, research results revealed that risks were not being systematically managed owing to the absence of risk management systems. Thus, it was concluded that it was necessary to develop standard operating systems and implement risk management systems in order to manage risks effectively. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to develop a construction risk management system (CRMS for systematically managing risks. For this purpose, the field operation managers of CM firms were interviewed and surveyed in order to define risk factors. Upon this, a risk assessment priority analysis was performed. Finally, a risk management system that comprised seven modules and 20 sub-modules and was capable of responding systematically to risks was proposed. Furthermore, the effectiveness of this system was verified through on-site inspection. This system allows early response to risks, accountability verification and immediate response to legal disputes with clients by managing risk records.

  10. 75 FR 60749 - Policy on Payment System Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [Docket No. OP-1345] Policy on Payment System Risk AGENCY: Board of... of its Policy on Payment System Risk (PSR). The revisions explicitly recognize the role of the... payment flows for the banking system, while also helping to mitigate credit exposures of the Federal...

  11. Philosophical and methodological aspects of the Schroedinger paradox

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Juha, L.; Krajca, R.; Smatera, M.

    1989-01-01

    Methodological aspects of the foundations of quantum theory are dealt with in relation to the quantum description of macroscopic systems, biological in particular. Attention is paid to the philosophical content of the problems of 1) the logical status of the reduction postulate in quantum mechanics, and 2) the paradox of Schroedinger's cat, whose physical solution has not yet been attained. The problem of the quantum description of complex macroscopic systems is also treated, as is Herbert Froehlich's important concept of the excitation of dominant modes in biological systems. (author). 61 refs

  12. Battling Arrow's Paradox to Discover Robust Water Management Alternatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasprzyk, J. R.; Reed, P. M.; Hadka, D.

    2013-12-01

    This study explores whether or not Arrow's Impossibility Theorem, a theory of social choice, affects the formulation of water resources systems planning problems. The theorem discusses creating an aggregation function for voters choosing from more than three alternatives for society. The Impossibility Theorem is also called Arrow's Paradox, because when trying to add more voters, a single individual's preference will dictate the optimal group decision. In the context of water resources planning, our study is motivated by recent theoretical work that has generalized the insights for Arrow's Paradox to the design of complex engineered systems. In this framing of the paradox, states of society are equivalent to water planning or design alternatives, and the voters are equivalent to multiple planning objectives (e.g. minimizing cost or maximizing performance). Seen from this point of view, multi-objective water planning problems are functionally equivalent to the social choice problem described above. Traditional solutions to such multi-objective problems aggregate multiple performance measures into a single mathematical objective. The Theorem implies that a subset of performance concerns will inadvertently dictate the overall design evaluations in unpredictable ways using such an aggregation. We suggest that instead of aggregation, an explicit many-objective approach to water planning can help overcome the challenges posed by Arrow's Paradox. Many-objective planning explicitly disaggregates measures of performance while supporting the discovery of the planning tradeoffs, employing multiobjective evolutionary algorithms (MOEAs) to find solutions. Using MOEA-based search to address Arrow's Paradox requires that the MOEAs perform robustly with increasing problem complexity, such as adding additional objectives and/or decisions. This study uses comprehensive diagnostic evaluation of MOEA search performance across multiple problem formulations (both aggregated and many

  13. The Impact of Bank Restatements on Illiquidity and Systemic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herly, Marie

    contribute more to systemic risk than other banks and thereby have spillover effects on the financial system. Overall, this paper shows firstly, that banks manage capital with loan loss provisions to avoid regulatory costs prior to a restatement. Secondly, it shows that capital providers demand a higher risk...... premium to compensate for the higher uncertainty following a restatement and that this has material effects on the financial system through higher balance sheet illiquidity and higher contribution to systemic risk....

  14. Public perceptions of energy system risks: some policy implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, K.; Otway, H.J.

    1980-01-01

    The subject is discussed under the headings: introduction; perceptions, beliefs and attitudes; the survey of public perceptions and attitudes towards energy systems; attitudes towards the five energy systems (nuclear, coal, oil, solar and hydro); perceptions of energy systems - the underlying dimensions of belief (economic benefits; environmental risk; psychological and physical risk; indirect risk; technology development); differential analysis of the perceptions of those pro and con nuclear energy; summary of perceptions of energy systems - relevance to the Austrian dilemma; policy implications. (U.K.)

  15. Aristotle vs. Plato: The Balkans' Paradoxical Enlightenment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Michalopoulos

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available As it occurred in West, Aristotle’s thought was in Byzantium the main organon of philosophical meditation within the frame of the Christian Faith. Nonetheless, from the ninth century on it was a revival of Platonism that took place – of Neo-Platonism at the beginning and of Platonism itself at the end. The Church, initially indifferent, became suspicious only when, at the turning of the fourteenth to the fifteenth century, the Platonism seemed to engender somewhat a latent paganism; but the Patriarchate was not then able to fight that tendency. So only after the 1453 capture of Constantinople by the Ottomans, Gennadius Scholarius managed to root out from the Greek lands Platonism and its crypto-pagan extension. Be that as it may; the main paradox of the Balkan history is that in the early seventeenth century some leading Greek scholars endorsed the materialist interpretation of Aristotle’s thought – as it was taught in the University of Padua by Cesare Cremonini; and as a corollary this materialistic philosophical system began being taught in both Constantinople and Athens. It was that very way that the Enlightenment took birth in the Balkans – and somehow became a State ideology - long before its prevalence in France. And of course all this had as a result a turn toward Physics and Chemistry with far-reaching consequences

  16. Exploration Systems Development (ESD) Approach to Enterprise Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauder, Stephen P.

    2014-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Exploration Systems Development (ESD) Division has implemented an innovative approach to Enterprise Risk Management under a unique governance structure and streamlined integration model. ESD's mission is to design and build the capability to extend human existence to deep space. The Enterprise consists of three Programs: Space Launch System (SLS), Orion, and Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO). The SLS is a rocket and launch system that will be capable of powering humans, habitats, and support systems to deep space. Orion will be the first spacecraft in history capable of taking humans to multiple destinations within deep space. GSDO is modernizing Kennedy's spaceport to launch spacecraft built and designed by both NASA and private industry. ESD's approach to Enterprise Risk Management is commensurate with affordability and a streamlined management philosophy. ESD Enterprise Risk Management leverages off of the primary mechanisms for integration within the Enterprise. The Enterprise integration approach emphasizes delegation of authority to manage and execute the majority of cross-program activities and products to the individual Programs, while maintaining the overall responsibility for all cross-program activities at the Division. The intent of the ESD Enterprise Risk Management approach is to improve risk communication, to avoid replication and/or contradictory strategies, and to minimize overhead process burden. This is accomplished by the facilitation and integration of risk information within ESD. The ESD Division risks, Orion risks, SLS risks, and GSDO risks are owned and managed by the applicable Program. When the Programs have shared risks with multiple consequences, they are jointly owned and managed. When a risk is associated with the integrated system that involves more than one Program in condition, consequence, or mitigation plan, it is considered an Exploration Systems Integration

  17. SADA: Ecological Risk Based Decision Support System for Selective Remediation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) is freeware that implements terrestrial ecological risk assessment and yields a selective remediation design using its integral geographical information system, based on ecological and risk assessment inputs. Selective remediation ...

  18. Risk communication strategy development using the aerospace systems engineering process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, S.; Sklar, M.

    2004-01-01

    This paper explains the goals and challenges of NASA's risk communication efforts and how the Aerospace Systems Engineering Process (ASEP) was used to map the risk communication strategy used at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory to achieve these goals.

  19. Petroleum tax systems and risk sharing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sunnevaag, K.

    1992-12-01

    We have focused on four different measures of risk, well known from the finance literature, namely sensitivity, standard deviation, coefficient of variation and finally probability of a negative expected net present value (NPV). While the two first measures show that the state carries most of the risk, the latter measures show the opposite result. Whether or not the project is developed on a stand-alone or on-going basis, has a crucial impact on much risk the company carries. We have also looked at the risk development as a consequence of changes in tax regime. While the two first measures of risk (sensitivity and standard deviation) show an increase in risk for the company from the pre 1987 tax regime to the 1987-1991 tax regime, and a decrease in risk as a consequence of the last change, the opposite is the case when we look at the two last measures of risk, namely coefficient of variation and probability of a negative expected NPV. The same is the conclusion for the state, except that the sign of change is the opposite that of the company. This analysis could have been extended to include a risk concept based on the well known Capital Asset Pricing Model, which is relevant risk, or covariance risk. This model concludes that the return on any risky asset is a function of the correlation between the return on this asset and the market portfolio. In this case only the projects contribution to the portfolio risk should be accounted for. For the Norwegian state it is not unreasonable to assume that the risk contribution of a medium sized oil field to a big portfolio of fields and onshore activities only is marginal. For the national or international oil company it is somewhat less marginal, and for a company developing the field on a stand-alone basis it is substantial. 12 refs., 15 figs

  20. Administrative law risks of the governmental and municipal procurement system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dyuzhikov Sergey, A.

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with the administrative law risks of the Russian system of public procurement. The authors analyze the foregoing risks in the view of the correlation of risk situations, risk actions (omission and administrative law prohibitions. The authors are considering problems of the subject and some other characteristics essential to the administrative offenses in terms of the most systemic risk in this sphere – an information risk. The materials on law practice open to general use generated in more than 25 entities of the Russian Federation were used in the paper while preparing.

  1. Three Paradoxes of the Future Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. V. Pivovarov

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper is devoted to the issue of predicting the future. While creating the future image of the mankind as a whole, and Russia in particular, extrapolated some 50 or 100 years ahead, such cultural forms as religion, philosophy, education and art make their significant impact. However, philosophy plays a special role of critical methodology in coordinating the futurological efforts. It works as a tuning fork that tunes up the orchestra of various sciences and other forms of social consciousness. Being dialectical, philosophers find out and analyze the contradictions – paradoxes, antinomies, and aporias - involved in such activities as prophesizing, prognosticating, predicting and foreseeing. On the basis of the retrospective analysis, the author considers the most significant paradoxes facing the futurologists engaged in predicting the general course of historic events; the paradoxes being denoted as follows: the antinomy of academic ignorance, paradox of newness and paradox of an emergent effect. The analysis results in conclusion that the large-scale, long-term «scientific predictions of the future», claiming to be the truth and pretending for historical value and accuracy, are impossible or at least doubtful. Nevertheless, global prognoses are highly valued, widely discussed and always in demand in society due to the purposeful human intellect. 

  2. Three Paradoxes of the Future Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. V. Pivovarov

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The paper is devoted to the issue of predicting the future. While creating the future image of the mankind as a whole, and Russia in particular, extrapolated some 50 or 100 years ahead, such cultural forms as religion, philosophy, education and art make their significant impact. However, philosophy plays a special role of critical methodology in coordinating the futurological efforts. It works as a tuning fork that tunes up the orchestra of various sciences and other forms of social consciousness. Being dialectical, philosophers find out and analyze the contradictions – paradoxes, antinomies, and aporias - involved in such activities as prophesizing, prognosticating, predicting and foreseeing. On the basis of the retrospective analysis, the author considers the most significant paradoxes facing the futurologists engaged in predicting the general course of historic events; the paradoxes being denoted as follows: the antinomy of academic ignorance, paradox of newness and paradox of an emergent effect. The analysis results in conclusion that the large-scale, long-term «scientific predictions of the future», claiming to be the truth and pretending for historical value and accuracy, are impossible or at least doubtful. Nevertheless, global prognoses are highly valued, widely discussed and always in demand in society due to the purposeful human intellect. 

  3. Investigating a 21st Century Paradox: As the Demand for Technology Jobs Increases Why Are Fewer Students Majoring in Information Systems?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Timothy; Gao, Yuan; Sherman, Cherie; Vengerov, Alexander; Klein, Stephen

    2014-01-01

    This paper reports the results of a survey administered to 322 undergraduate business students enrolled in an introductory Information Systems course at a public liberal arts college located in the northeast US. The goal of this research was to learn, given the increased demand for technology oriented jobs, why fewer students are choosing the…

  4. Tank waste remediation system programmatic risk management plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seaver, D.A.

    1995-01-01

    This risk management plan defines the approach to be taken to managing risks in the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) program. It defines the actions to be taken at the overall program level, and the risk management requirements for lower-level projects and other activities. The primary focus of this plan is on ''programmatic'' risks, i.e., risks with respect to the cost, schedule, and technical performance of the program. The plan defines an approach providing managers with the flexibility to manage risks according to their specific needs, yet creates. The consistency needed for effectiveness across the program. The basic risk management approach uses a risk management list for the program, each project, and additional lower-level activities. The risk management list will be regularly reviewed and updated by appropriate level of management. Each list defines key risks, their likelihood and consequences, risk management actions to be taken, responsible individuals, and other management information

  5. Gender Analysis of Risk in Innovation System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ayinde, Ope; Muchie, Mammo; Abaniyan, E. O.

    2011-01-01

    the new maize variety. The analytical tools used include descriptive statistics, regression model; risk utility functions and risk parameter analysis. The result showed that invasion by animals, disease and pest, lack of access to credit wind and price fluctuation were the major risk facing the maize......This study analyzed risk by gender in innovation in Kwara state, Nigeria, using downy mildew resistant maize production as case study. The study employed primary and secondary data. The primary data were collected from well-structured questionnaires administered to both male and female producing...... producers in the area in the usage of the new innovation. The study also revealed that male producers were willing to take risk in the new maize variety production than the female, while the females were more indifferent to the risk involved in the new maize production variety than males. None...

  6. Does the vulnerability paradox in PTSD apply to women and men? An exploratory study.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dückers, M.L.A.; Olff, M.

    2017-01-01

    Recent research suggests that greater country vulnerability is associated with a decreased, rather than increased, risk of mental health problems. Because societal parameters may have gender-specific implications, our objective was to explore whether the "vulnerability paradox" equally applies to

  7. Petrohradský paradox a kardinální funkce užitku

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hlaváček, Jiří; Hlaváček, M.

    2004-01-01

    Roč. 52, č. 1 (2004), s. 48-60 ISSN 0032-3233 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/01/0034 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z1075907 Keywords : St Peterburg paradox * risk aversion * utility function cardinalization Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.156, year: 2004

  8. THE IMPLANT INFECTION PARADOX : WHY DO SOME SUCCEED WHEN OTHERS FAIL? OPINION AND DISCUSSION PAPER

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yue, C.; Zhao, Bingran; Ren, Y.; Kuijer, R.; van der Mei, H. C.; Busscher, H. J.; Rochford, E. T. J.

    2015-01-01

    Biomaterial-implants are frequently used to restore function and form of human anatomy. However, the presence of implanted biomaterials dramatically elevates infection risk. Paradoxically, dental-implants placed in a bacteria-laden milieu experience moderate failure-rates, due to infection (0.0-1.1

  9. Gut microbiota and the paradox of cancer immunotherapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Theofilos ePoutahidis

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available It is recently shown that beneficial environmental microbes stimulate integrated immune and neuroendocrine factors throughout the body, consequently modulating regulatory T lymphocyte phenotypes, maintaining systemic immune balance, and determining the fate of preneoplastic lesions towards regression while sustaining whole body good health. Stimulated by a gut microbiota-centric systemic homeostasis hypothesis, we set out to explore the influence of the gut microbiome to explain the paradoxical roles of regulatory T lymphocytes in cancer development and growth. This paradigm shift places cancer prevention and treatment into a new broader context of holobiont engineering to cultivate a tumor-suppressive macroenvironment.

  10. Gut microbiota and the paradox of cancer immunotherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poutahidis, Theofilos; Kleinewietfeld, Markus; Erdman, Susan E

    2014-01-01

    It is recently shown that beneficial environmental microbes stimulate integrated immune and neuroendocrine factors throughout the body, consequently modulating regulatory T-lymphocyte phenotypes, maintaining systemic immune balance, and determining the fate of preneoplastic lesions toward regression while sustaining whole body good health. Stimulated by a gut microbiota-centric systemic homeostasis hypothesis, we set out to explore the influence of the gut microbiome to explain the paradoxical roles of regulatory T-lymphocytes in cancer development and growth. This paradigm shift places cancer prevention and treatment into a new broader context of holobiont engineering to cultivate a tumor-suppressive macroenvironment.

  11. Cities at risk: status of Italian planning system in reducing seismic and hydrogeological risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grazia Di Giovanni

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Italy and its urban systems are under high seismic and hydrogeological risks. The awareness about the role of human activities in the genesis of disasters is achieved in the scientific debate, as well as the role of urban and regional planning in reducing risks. The paper reviews the state of Italian major cities referred to hydrogeological and seismic risk by: 1 extrapolating data and maps about seismic hazard and landslide risk concerning cities with more than 50.000 inhabitants and metropolitan contexts, and 2 outlining how risk reduction is framed in Italian planning system (at national and regional levels. The analyses of available data and the review of the normative framework highlight the existing gaps in addressing risk reduction: nevertheless a wide knowledge about natural risks afflicting Italian territory and an articulated regulatory framework, the available data about risks are not exhaustive, and risk reduction policies and multidisciplinary pro-active approaches are only partially fostered and applied.

  12. The Lindley paradox in optical interferometry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mauri, Camillo; Paris, Matteo G.A.

    2016-01-01

    The so-called Lindley paradox is a counterintuitive statistical effect where the Bayesian and frequentist approaches to hypothesis testing give radically different answers, depending on the choice of the prior distribution. In this paper we address the occurrence of the Lindley paradox in optical interferometry and discuss its implications for high-precision measurements. In particular, we focus on phase estimation by Mach–Zehnder interferometers and show how to mitigate the conflict between the two approaches by using suitable priors. - Highlights: • We address the occurence of Lindley paradox in interferometry and discuss its implications for high-precision measurements. • We show how to mitigate the conflict between Bayesian and frequentist approach to interferometry using suitable priors. • Our results apply to calibration of homodyne detectors for quantum tomography.

  13. Thermoeconomic diagnosis and entropy generation paradox

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sigthorsson, Oskar; Ommen, Torben Schmidt; Elmegaard, Brian

    2017-01-01

    In the entropy generation paradox, the entropy generation number, as a function of heat exchanger effectiveness, counter-intuitively approaches zero in two limits symmetrically from a single maximum. In thermoeconomic diagnosis, namely in the characteristic curve method, the exergy destruction...... to the entropy generation paradox, as a decreased heat exchanger effectiveness (as in the case of an operation anomaly in the component) can counter-intuitively result in decreased exergy destruction rate of the component. Therefore, along with an improper selection of independent variables, the heat exchanger...... increases in case of an operation anomaly in a component. The normalised exergy destruction rate as the dependent variable therefore resolves the relation of the characteristic curve method with the entropy generation paradox....

  14. Nietzsche et les paradoxes de la force

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arnaud François

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available According to this paper, the Nietzschean notion of force actually consists of a number of paradoxes, which I seek to formulate through the philosophical problems they pose. These paradoxes revolve around this fundamental paradox: on the one hand, force is able to rise and fall, but precisely how could such an increase and such a decrease be designed, as far as only what is given once for all can accept quantitative determinations? I come to draw two methods to answer this question (contrariety between two positive forces, reactivity of one force against the other, which suggest two ways of posing the biological and medical problems today, related to the notions of health and disease, in the scope of which Nietzsche has encountered it.

  15. Hanford waste vitrification systems risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, W.C.; Hamilton, D.W.; Holton, L.K.; Bailey, J.W.

    1991-09-01

    A systematic Risk Assessment was performed to identify the technical, regulatory, and programmatic uncertainties and to quantify the risks to the Hanford Site double-shell tank waste vitrification program baseline (as defined in December 1990). Mitigating strategies to reduce the overall program risk were proposed. All major program elements were evaluated, including double-shell tank waste characterization, Tank Farms, retrieval, pretreatment, vitrification, and grouting. Computer-based techniques were used to quantify risks to proceeding with construction of the Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant on the present baseline schedule. Risks to the potential vitrification of single-shell tank wastes and cesium and strontium capsules were also assessed. 62 refs., 38 figs., 26 tabs

  16. Prediction of Banking Systemic Risk Based on Support Vector Machine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shouwei Li

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Banking systemic risk is a complex nonlinear phenomenon and has shed light on the importance of safeguarding financial stability by recent financial crisis. According to the complex nonlinear characteristics of banking systemic risk, in this paper we apply support vector machine (SVM to the prediction of banking systemic risk in an attempt to suggest a new model with better explanatory power and stability. We conduct a case study of an SVM-based prediction model for Chinese banking systemic risk and find the experiment results showing that support vector machine is an efficient method in such case.

  17. HUD INFORMATION SYSTEMS: Immature Software Acquisition Capability Increases Project Risks

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2001-01-01

    .... GAO has designated HUD's major program areas as high risk, in part because the department's information and financial management systems were poorly integrated, ineffective, and generally unreliable...

  18. Issues regarding Risk Effect Analysis of Digitalized Safety Systems and Main Risk Contributors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Hyun Gook; Jang, Seung-Cheol

    2008-01-01

    Risk factors of safety-critical digital systems affect overall plant risk. In order to assess this risk effect, a risk model of a digitalized safety system is required. This article aims to provide an overview of the issues when developing a risk model and demonstrate their effect on plant risk quantitatively. Research activities in Korea for addressing these various issues, such as the software failure probability and the fault coverage of self monitoring mechanism are also described. The main risk contributors related to the digitalized safety system were determined in a quantitative manner. Reactor protection system and engineered safety feature component control system designed as part of the Korean Nuclear I and C System project are used as example systems. Fault-tree models were developed to assess the failure probability of a system function which is designed to generate an automated signal for actuating both of the reactor trip and the complicated accident-mitigation actions. The developed fault trees were combined with a plant risk model to evaluate the effect of a digitalized system's failure on the plant risk. (authors)

  19. The personal health record paradox: health care professionals' perspectives and the information ecology of personal health record systems in organizational and clinical settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nazi, Kim M

    2013-04-04

    Despite significant consumer interest and anticipated benefits, overall adoption of personal health records (PHRs) remains relatively low. Understanding the consumer perspective is necessary, but insufficient by itself. Consumer PHR use also has broad implications for health care professionals and organizational delivery systems; however, these have received less attention. An exclusive focus on the PHR as a tool for consumer empowerment does not adequately take into account the social and organizational context of health care delivery, and the reciprocal nature of patient engagement. The purpose of this study was to examine the experiences of physicians, nurses, and pharmacists at the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) using an organizationally sponsored PHR to develop insights into the interaction of technology and processes of health care delivery. The conceptual framework for the study draws on an information ecology perspective, which recognizes that a vibrant dynamic exists among technologies, people, practices, and values, accounting for both the values and norms of the participants and the practices of the local setting. The study explores the experiences and perspectives of VA health care professionals related to patient use of the My HealtheVet PHR portal and secure messaging systems. In-depth interviews were conducted with 30 VA health care professionals engaged in providing direct patient care who self-reported that they had experiences with at least 1 of 4 PHR features. Interviews were transcribed, coded, and analyzed to identify inductive themes. Organizational documents and artifacts were reviewed and analyzed to trace the trajectory of secure messaging implementation as part of the VA Patient Aligned Care Team (PACT) model. Study findings revealed a variety of factors that have facilitated or inhibited PHR adoption, use, and endorsement of patient use by health care professionals. Health care professionals' accounts and analysis of organizational

  20. Online application of a risk management system for risk assessment and monitoring at NPPs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Jun, E-mail: youngjun51@hotmail.com [Key Laboratory of Fundamental Science on Nuclear Safety and Simulation Technology, Harbin Engineering University (China); Yang, Ming, E-mail: yangming@hrbeu.edu.cn [Key Laboratory of Fundamental Science on Nuclear Safety and Simulation Technology, Harbin Engineering University (China); Wang, Wenlin, E-mail: wlwang0618@126.com [Key Laboratory of Fundamental Science on Nuclear Safety and Simulation Technology, Harbin Engineering University (China); Li, Fengjun, E-mail: leefengjun@163.com [China Nuclear Power Engineering Co. Ltd (China)

    2016-08-15

    Highlights: • A generic GO-FLOW modeling structure is proposed for easily Living PSA development and analysis. • Hierarchical and modularized scheme is applied in the development of Living PSA models and database. • A risk management system is developed by GO-FLOW method. • Functional testing is conducted on the risk management system for performance evaluation. • The fast solution time derived from Living PSA application is supportive in plant safety management. - Abstract: The paper presents a risk management system on the basis of Living PSA models which are developed under a proposed generic GO-FLOW modeling method with a hierarchical and modular structure. The design of the risk management system is aiming at assisting plant personnel to manage maintenance plan and system configuration, and conduct system reliability monitoring, risk monitoring and risk management quickly and conveniently through graphical user interfaces without going deep into the details of building, updating and analyzing reliability and risk models. The performance of the proposed risk management system was tested on a full-scale simulator of PWR nuclear power plant and demonstrated that the fast solution time derived from utilization of hierarchical and modularized Living PSA models is strongly supportive for instantaneous risk assessment as well as for daily risk management at NPPs.

  1. A financial network perspective of financial institutions' systemic risk contributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Wei-Qiang; Zhuang, Xin-Tian; Yao, Shuang; Uryasev, Stan

    2016-08-01

    This study considers the effects of the financial institutions' local topology structure in the financial network on their systemic risk contribution using data from the Chinese stock market. We first measure the systemic risk contribution with the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR) which is estimated by applying dynamic conditional correlation multivariate GARCH model (DCC-MVGARCH). Financial networks are constructed from dynamic conditional correlations (DCC) with graph filtering method of minimum spanning trees (MSTs). Then we investigate dynamics of systemic risk contributions of financial institution. Also we study dynamics of financial institution's local topology structure in the financial network. Finally, we analyze the quantitative relationships between the local topology structure and systemic risk contribution with panel data regression analysis. We find that financial institutions with greater node strength, larger node betweenness centrality, larger node closeness centrality and larger node clustering coefficient tend to be associated with larger systemic risk contributions.

  2. Collaborative Management of Risks and Complexity in Banking Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion IVAN

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes types of risks encountered in banking systems and ways to prevent and eliminate them. Banking systems are presented in order to have a view on banking activities and processes that generates risks. The risks in banking processes are analyzed and the collaborative character of risk management is highlighted. A way to control the risk in banking systems through information security is described. Risks arise from system complexity, thus evaluation and comparison of different configurations are bases for improvements. The Halstead relative complexity function synthesizes system complexity from the point of view of the size of the variables analyzed and the heterogeneity between the variables. Section four was realized by Catalin SBORA.

  3. Audit of psychosocial risk management systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jespersen, Anne Helbo; Hasle, Peter; Hohnen, Pernille

    2014-01-01

    organizations on how to manage risks. Internal and external audits of compliance with the standard are key elements. Auditors should be competent to carry out the task and be familiar with risks of the areas they are auditing. The competences and practice of internal auditors have been studied...... in two Danish municipalities. The results show that auditors have a varied background and a limited knowledge about psychosocial risks. They have difficulties in carrying out audits and the results are mainly influenced by personal preferences....

  4. Serious reform starts with a systemic risk tax

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perotti, E.

    2010-01-01

    The recent IMF report to the G20 states that fiscal reforms are essential to recover the costs of the crisis, as well as to contain future risk creation. This column argues that progress on controlling future risk requires a direct tax on systemic risk. This would restore confidence in the ability

  5. Risk Informed Design as Part of the Systems Engineering Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deckert, George

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the importance of Risk Informed Design (RID) as an important feature of the systems engineering process. RID is based on the principle that risk is a design commodity such as mass, volume, cost or power. It also reviews Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) as it is used in the product life cycle in the development of NASA's Constellation Program.

  6. A paradox in the restoration of limestone quarries on mediterranean basin: physical characteristics of substrate as determinant of dynamics of created system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jorba, M.; Hereter, A.; Josa March, R.

    2009-01-01

    The restoration of open cast mining land looks for the quick integration in the landscape and the erosion control of derelict areas. The characteristics of substrate can determinate the behaviour of novel system. The stony substrates used have a great Ks and a very low water storage capacity. This paper presents the results of an experiment performed on story mineral substrates amended with sewage sludge under Mediterranean climatic conditions in a limestone quarry in the SW of Barcelona (NE of Spain). the experiments was carried out at container scale and the aim was to evaluate the vegetation response in two substrates with different stoniness and with irrigation during dry period. Water content in the mineral substrate was monitored using vertical TDR probes during the experiment. The growth of introduced plants was monitored monthly. Throughout the experiment, populations of sown plants fluctuated according to the available water in the substrate. The irrigation applied was not sufficient to maintain the vegetation in summer (period of higher evaporative demand at that time of year). The volume of leachate was high and nitrates, sulfates and chlorides were washed. (Author) 4 refs.

  7. Configuration of risk monitor system by plant defense-in-depth risk monitor and reliability monitor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshikawa, Hidekazu; Lind Morten; Yang Ming; Hashim Muhammad; Zhang Zhijian

    2012-01-01

    A new method of risk monitor system of a nuclear power plant has been proposed from the aspect by what degree of safety functions incorporated in the plant system is maintained by multiple barriers of defense-in-depth (DiD). Wherein, the central idea is plant DiD risk monitor and reliability monitor derived from the five aspects of (1) design principle of nuclear safety based on DiD concept, (2) definition of risk and risk to be monitored, (3) severe accident phenomena as major risk, (4) scheme of risk ranking, and (5) dynamic risk display. In this paper, the overall frame of the proposed risk monitor system is summarized and the detailed discussion is made on major items such as definition of risk and risk ranking, anatomy of fault occurrence, two-layer configuration of risk monitor, how to configure individual elements of plant DiD risk monitor, and lastly how to apply for a PWR safety system. (author)

  8. Integrated, regional approach to risk management of industrial systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chakraborty, S.

    1992-01-01

    This paper focuses on the following four main issues: (1) necessity for an integrated, regional approach to risk management of industrial systems; (2) principles of risk management; (3) integrated approach and overall methodology; and (4) implementation of risk management strategies on a regional basis. The U.N. Interagency project on risk management for large industrial areas, which is a pioneer type of international initiative for an integrated approach to risk management, is discussed in this context. Another encouraging activity for further development of overall methodologies for risk management is the ongoing project on the risk and safety of technical systems at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Aurich. The concept of integral risk management takes into account multidimensional factors including technical, economic, political, social, and ethical considerations to allow a well-balanced decision-making process

  9. Risk evaluation system for facility safeguards and security planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Udell, C.J.; Carlson, R.L.

    1987-01-01

    The Risk Evaluation System (RES) is an integrated approach to determining safeguards and security effectiveness and risk. RES combines the planning and technical analysis into a format that promotes an orderly development of protection strategies, planing assumptions, facility targets, vulnerability and risk determination, enhancement planning, and implementation. In addition, the RES computer database program enhances the capability of the analyst to perform a risk evaluation of the facility. The computer database is menu driven using data input screens and contains an algorithm for determining the probability of adversary defeat and risk. Also, base case and adjusted risk data records can be maintained and accessed easily

  10. Tank Waste Remediation System Characterization Project Programmatic Risk Management Plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baide, D.G.; Webster, T.L.

    1995-12-01

    The TWRS Characterization Project has developed a process and plan in order to identify, manage and control the risks associated with tank waste characterization activities. The result of implementing this process is a defined list of programmatic risks (i.e. a risk management list) that are used by the Project as management tool. This concept of risk management process is a commonly used systems engineering approach which is being applied to all TWRS program and project elements. The Characterization Project risk management plan and list are subset of the overall TWRS risk management plan and list

  11. Risk evaluation system for facility safeguards and security planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Udell, C.J.; Carlson, R.L.

    1987-01-01

    The Risk Evaluation System (RES) is an integrated approach to determining safeguards and security effectiveness and risk. RES combines the planning and technical analysis into a format that promotes an orderly development of protection strategies, planning assumptions, facility targets, vulnerability and risk determination, enhancement planning, and implementation. In addition, the RES computer database program enhances the capability of the analyst to perform a risk evaluation of the facility. The computer database is menu driven using data input screens and contains an algorithm for determining the probability of adversary defeat and risk. Also, base case and adjusted risk data records can be maintained and accessed easily

  12. Is Yin-Yang Superior for Paradox Research?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Xin; Worm, Verner; Peihong, Xie

    2017-01-01

    Purpose The paper debunks Peter P. Li’s assertion that Yin-Yang is superior to any other cognitive frames or logical systems for paradox research. The purpose of this paper is to alert the Chinese indigenous management researchers to the danger of Chinese exceptionalism and over-confidence. Design...... of cultural exceptionalism and ethnocentrism can make cross-cultural communication and interaction smoother. Originality/value This paper is a rigorous critique on the “Yin-Yang being superior” assertion of Peter P. Li....

  13. Quantum mechanics, common sense and the black hole information paradox

    CERN Document Server

    Danielsson, U H; Danielsson, Ulf H.; Schiffer, Marcelo

    1993-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to analyse, in the light of information theory and with the arsenal of (elementary) quantum mechanics (EPR correlations, copying machines, teleportation, mixing produced in sub-systems owing to a trace operation, etc.) the scenarios available on the market to resolve the so-called black-hole information paradox. We shall conclude that the only plausible ones are those where either the unitary evolution of quantum mechanics is given up, in which information leaks continuously in the course of black-hole evaporation through non-local processes, or those in which the world is polluted by an infinite number of meta-stable remnants.

  14. Methodology for Designing Operational Banking Risks Monitoring System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kostjunina, T. N.

    2018-05-01

    The research looks at principles of designing an information system for monitoring operational banking risks. A proposed design methodology enables one to automate processes of collecting data on information security incidents in the banking network, serving as the basis for an integrated approach to the creation of an operational risk management system. The system can operate remotely ensuring tracking and forecasting of various operational events in the bank network. A structure of a content management system is described.

  15. Micro-Macro Paradoxes of Entrepreneurship

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søgaard, Villy

    2008-01-01

    Artiklen tager afsæt i det såkaldte micro-macro paradox fra Aids-Efficiency litteraturen og argumenterer for, at en tilsvarende problemstilling bør inddrages i vurderingen af f.eks. de beskæftigelsesmæssige konsekvenser af entrepreneuriel virksomhed. Den påviser også i en gennemgang af litteratur...

  16. Art's Pedagogical Paradox

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalin, Nadine M.

    2014-01-01

    This article contributes to conversations concerning art education futures through engaging alternative relations between art, education, and democracy that mobilize education as art projects associated with the "pedagogical turn" as sites of liminality and paradox. An analysis of the art project, Pedagogical Factory, is used to outline…

  17. Consistent resolution of some relativistic quantum paradoxes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Griffiths, Robert B.

    2002-01-01

    A relativistic version of the (consistent or decoherent) histories approach to quantum theory is developed on the basis of earlier work by Hartle, and used to discuss relativistic forms of the paradoxes of spherical wave packet collapse, Bohm's formulation of the Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen paradox, and Hardy's paradox. It is argued that wave function collapse is not needed for introducing probabilities into relativistic quantum mechanics, and in any case should never be thought of as a physical process. Alternative approaches to stochastic time dependence can be used to construct a physical picture of the measurement process that is less misleading than collapse models. In particular, one can employ a coarse-grained but fully quantum-mechanical description in which particles move along trajectories, with behavior under Lorentz transformations the same as in classical relativistic physics, and detectors are triggered by particles reaching them along such trajectories. States entangled between spacelike separate regions are also legitimate quantum descriptions, and can be consistently handled by the formalism presented here. The paradoxes in question arise because of using modes of reasoning which, while correct for classical physics, are inconsistent with the mathematical structure of quantum theory, and are resolved (or tamed) by using a proper quantum analysis. In particular, there is no need to invoke, nor any evidence for, mysterious long-range superluminal influences, and thus no incompatibility, at least from this source, between relativity theory and quantum mechanics

  18. Political Animals: The Paradox of Ecofeminist Politics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandilands, Catriona

    1994-01-01

    Analyzes the paradox between the careful work of rigorous political analysis and philosophy and a desire for mystery and the experience of awe and wildness that demands putting aside careful reasoning and the sensing of nature in an altogether different way. (LZ)

  19. Calcium paradox and calcium entry blockers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ruigrok, T.J.C.; Slade, A.M.; Nayler, W.G.; Meijler, F.L.

    1984-01-01

    Reperfusion of isolated hearts with calcium-containing solution after a short period of calcium-free perfusion results in irreversible cell damage (calcium paradox). This phenomenon is characterized by an excessive influx of calcium into the cells, the rapid onset of myocardial contracture,

  20. Embracing uncertainties: The paradox of environmental education ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper is a pair of binoculars which I have used to scan the last two years that I have been studying environmental education, the focus being on the research I did on Theatre for Development for environmental education in formal education. The paper aims to bring into view some on the paradoxes of doing ...

  1. Zeno's paradox in quantum cellular automata

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groessing, G.; Zeilinger, A.

    1991-01-01

    The effect of Zeno's paradox in quantum theory is demonstrated with the aid of quantum mechanical cellular automata. It is shown that the degree of non-unitarity of the cellular automaton evolution and the frequency of consecutive measurements of cellular automaton states are operationally indistinguishable. (orig.)

  2. Zeno's paradox in quantum cellular automata

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Groessing, G [Atominst. der Oesterreichischen Universitaeten, Vienna (Austria); Zeilinger, A [Inst. fuer Experimentalphysik, Univ. Innsbruck (Austria)

    1991-07-01

    The effect of Zeno's paradox in quantum theory is demonstrated with the aid of quantum mechanical cellular automata. It is shown that the degree of non-unitarity of the cellular automaton evolution and the frequency of consecutive measurements of cellular automaton states are operationally indistinguishable. (orig.).

  3. A new explanation of the extinction paradox

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berg, M.J.; Sorensen, C.M.; Chakrabarti, A.

    2011-01-01

    This work presents a new explanation for the extinction paradox and shows that the canonical explanations are incorrect. This paradox refers to the large size limit of a particle's extinction cross section. It is called a paradox because the geometrical optics approximation, which should be valid in this limit, predicts a cross section that is half of the true value. The new explanation is achieved by formulating the scattered wave in terms of an integral over the particle's surface where the seemingly unrelated Ewald-Oseen theorem appears in the formulation. By expressing the cross section in terms of this surface integral, the Ewald-Oseen theorem is analytically connected to the cross section. Several illustrations are used to reveal the significance of this connection: The paradox is seen to be a consequence of the requirement that the incident wave be canceled within the particle by secondary radiation from its own internal field. Following this, the canonical explanations are examined to reveal serious problems. In the process, the same asymptotic extinction behavior is shown to occur for small highly refractive dielectric particles, and thus is not just a large particle size or small wavelength effect as is often stated. The traditional explanations cannot account for this behavior while the new one actually predicts it. All in all, this work constitutes a fundamental reworking of 60 years of accepted understanding for the cause of the asymptotic behavior of the extinction cross section.

  4. The Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen paradox

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roy, S.M.

    1980-01-01

    The celebrated arguments of Einstein, Podolsky and Rosen claiming that quantum mechanics cannot be a complete theory are reviewed. Recent research climaxed by Bell's theorem shows that Einstein's locality or ''no telepathy'' postulate conflicts with quantum theory. It adds a new dimension to the paradox by catapulting the problem from the domain of metaphysics into that of experimental physics. (auth.)

  5. Too similar, too different: the paradoxical dualism of psychiatric stigma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gergel, Tania Louise

    2014-08-01

    Challenges to psychiatric stigma fall between a rock and a hard place. Decreasing one prejudice may inadvertently increase another. Emphasising similarities between mental illness and 'ordinary' experience to escape the fear-related prejudices associated with the imagined 'otherness' of persons with mental illness risks conclusions that mental illness indicates moral weakness and the loss of any benefits of a medical model. An emphasis on illness and difference from normal experience risks a response of fear of the alien. Thus, a 'likeness-based' and 'unlikeness-based' conception of psychiatric stigma can lead to prejudices stemming from paradoxically opposing assumptions about mental illness. This may create a troubling impasse for anti-stigma campaigns.

  6. High risk process control system assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, Venetia [Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), RJ (Brazil); Zamberlan, Maria Cristina [National Institute of Tehnology (INT), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Human Reliability and Ergonomics Research Group for the Oil, Gas and Energy Sector

    2009-07-01

    The evolution of ergonomics methodology has become necessary due to the dynamics imposed by the work environment, by the increase of the need of human cooperation and by the high interaction between various sections within a company. In the last 25 years, as of studies made in the high risk process control, we have developed a methodology to evaluate these situations that focus on the assessment of activities and human cooperation, the assessment of context, the assessment of the impact of work of other sectors in the final activity of the operator, as well as the modeling of existing risks. (author)

  7. Geologic characterization report for the Paradox Basin Study Region, Utah Study Areas. Volume 6. Salt Valley

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-12-01

    Surface landforms in the Salt Valley Area are generally a function of the Salt Valley anticline and are characterized by parallel and subparallel cuestaform ridges and hogbacks and flat valley floors. The most prominent structure in the Area is the Salt Valley anticline. Erosion resulting from the Tertiary uplift of the Colorado Plateau led to salt dissolution and subsequent collapse along the crest of the anticline. Continued erosion removed the collapse material, forming an axial valley along the crest of the anticline. Paleozoic rocks beneath the salt bearing Paradox Formation consist of limestone, dolomite, sandstone, siltstone and shale. The salt beds of the Paradox Formation occur in distinct cycles separated by an interbed sequence of anhydrite, carbonate, and clastic rocks. The Paradox Formation is overlain by Pennsylvanian limestone; Permian sandstone; and Mesozoic sandstone, mudstone, conglomerate and shale. No earthquakes have been reported in the Area during the period of the historic record and contemporary seismicity appears to be diffusely distributed, of low level and small magnitude. The upper unit includes the Permian strata and upper Honaker Trail Formation. The current data base is insufficient to estimate ground-water flow rates and directions in this unit. The middle unit includes the evaporites in the Paradox Formation and no laterally extensive flow systems are apparent. The lower unit consists of the rocks below the Paradox Formation where permeabilities vary widely, and the apparent flow direction is toward the west. 108 refs., 39 figs., 9 tabs

  8. THE SYSTEMIC RISK BUFFER – A CHALLENGING INSTRUMENT FOR ASSESSING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BADEA IRINA - RALUCA

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The consequences of the global financial crisis have changed the orientation of the regulators from the micro towards the macroeconomic level, which encompasses the financial system as a whole, with its components as individual financial institutions. Needless to say that there is an inherent risk to which every participant to the market is exposed, the systemic risk. Therefore, this paper aims at presenting systemic risk in a clear manner, paying attention to and highlighting several approaches regarding systemic risk in literature and practice. Moreover, the mechanism of systemic risk transmission points out the channels through which systemic risk spreads and affects the real economy. There is also presented a new component of the macroprudential regulation, i.e. the systemic risk buffer (SRB, which is an important instrument to fight against systemic risk along with the other buffers stipulated in the Basel III standards. Hence, the subject dealt in this paper represents a realistic outlook upon the situation of the financial system at the moment, in its struggle to forecast a potential systemic threat and the instruments needed to counteract it in order to diminish its negative effects. In the last part of the paper there is presented evidence from a few countries that started to implement the SRB and G-SII or O-SII buffers or are phased for implementation to the extent of 2019. Tracking the vulnerabilities of the system as a whole, of each of its components and the tranmission channels of systemic risk should be the first step to make before taking any measures against a monetary or financial phenomenon.

  9. Does evaporation paradox exist in China?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. T. Cong

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available One expected consequence of global warming is the increase in evaporation. However, lots of observations show that the rate of evaporation from open pans of water has been steadily decreasing all over the world in the past 50 years. The contrast between expectation and observation is called "evaporation paradox". Based on data from 317 weather stations in China from 1956 to 2005, the trends of pan evaporation and air temperature were obtained and evaporation paradox was analyzed. The conclusions include: (1 From 1956 to 2005, pan evaporation paradox existed in China as a whole while pan evaporation kept decreasing and air temperature became warmer and warmer, but it does not apply to Northeast and Southeast China; (2 From 1956 to 1985, pan evaporation paradox existed narrowly as a whole with unobvious climate warming trend, but it does not apply to Northeast China; (3 From 1986 to 2005, in the past 20 years, pan evaporation paradox did not exist for the whole period while pan evaporation kept increasing, although it existed in South China. Furthermore, the trend of other weather factors including sunshine duration, windspeed, humidity and vapor pressure deficit, and their relations with pan evaporation are discussed. As a result, it can be concluded that pan evaporation decreasing is caused by the decreasing in radiation and wind speed before 1985 and pan evaporation increasing is caused by the decreasing in vapor pressure deficit due to strong warming after 1986. With the Budyko curve, it can be concluded that the actual evaporation decreased in the former 30 years and increased in the latter 20 year for the whole China.

  10. Risk Management of Large RC Structures within Spatial Information System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Qin, Jianjun; Faber, Michael Havbro

    2012-01-01

    Abstract: The present article addresses the development of a spatial information system (SIS), which aims to facilitate risk management of large‐scale concrete structures. The formulation of the SIS is based on ideas developed in the context of indicator‐based risk modeling for concrete structures...... subject to corrosion and geographical information system based risk modeling concerning large‐scale risk management. The term “risk management” here refers in particular to the process of condition assessment and optimization of the inspection and repair activities. The SIS facilitates the storage...... and handling of all relevant information to the risk management. The probabilistic modeling utilized in the condition assessment takes basis in a Bayesian hierarchical modeling philosophy. It facilitates the updating of risks as well as optimizing inspection plans whenever new information about the condition...

  11. Social risk assessment of large technical systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pasman, H.J.; Vrijling, J.K.

    2003-01-01

    A probabilistic approach to engineering advances. Since risk adhering to a technical structure can be determined quantitatively easier and more accurately than before, criteria for decision making are becoming more important. If the structure is in the public domain, and benefits are not felt, the

  12. Naturalness, value systems and perception of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drottz Sjoberg, B.M.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: what is natural? And what is Nature? Are perceptions of Nature and naturalness related to perceptions of risk? This paper focuses on these aspects based on results from a Swedish representative sample (N=731), where subjects indicated e.g. the degree of naturalness of various phenomena, their views of nature, and personal life values, as well as perceptions of risk in specified contexts. The results showed a tendency to perceive as natural the phenomenon which is positively valued, i.e. what is natural is also good or desirable. Further, there were weak correlations between perceived naturalness and indicators of technological optimism, possibly indicating that persons with a more generous view of what is natural also more easily might accept change and outcomes due to human intelligence and activity. The construct of 'tampering with nature' has previously been shown to be one good predictor of perceived risk. The respondents also rated their agreement with items aimed to reflect the four 'views of nature' as suggested by Cultural Theory, i.e. nature as robust, capricious, tolerant and fragile. Nature was foremost perceived as fragile, but the main result clearly revealed that peoples' views of nature were complex and most often involved several of the suggested categories. The discussion focuses on the possible implications on environmental concern and risk perception given that Nature would develop into an undesirable type of locality. (author)

  13. Systemic liquidity risk: a European approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perotti, E.

    2011-01-01

    How should financial regulators address problems stemming from liquidity risk? This column argues that the liquidity coverage and net funding ratios proposed for Basel III are economically and politically impractical. It recommends using those ratios as long-term targets while imposing ‘prudential

  14. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lee, John C; McCormick, Norman J

    2011-01-01

    ...), and failure modes of systems. All of this material is general enough that it could be used in non-nuclear applications, although there is an emphasis placed on the analysis of nuclear systems...

  15. The Policy Maker's Anguish: Regulating Personal Data Behavior Between Paradoxes and Dilemmas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Compañó, Ramón; Lusoli, Wainer

    Regulators in Europe and elsewhere are paying great attention to identity, privacy and trust in online and converging environments. Appropriate regulation of identity in a ubiquitous information environment is seen as one of the major drivers of the future Internet economy. Regulation of personal identity data has come to the fore including mapping conducted on digital personhood by the OECD; work on human rights and profiling by the Council of Europe andmajor studies by the European Commission with regard to self-regulation in the privacy market, electronic identity technical interoperability and enhanced safety for young people. These domains overlap onto an increasingly complex model of regulation of individuals' identity management, online and offline. This chapter argues that policy makers struggle to deal with issues concerning electronic identity, due to the apparently irrational and unpredictable behavior of users when engaging in online interactions involving identity management. Building on empirical survey evidence from four EU countries, we examine the first aspect in detail - citizens' management of identity in a digital environment. We build on data from a large scale (n = 5,265) online survey of attitudes to electronic identity among young Europeans (France, Germany, Spain, UK) conducted in August 2008. The survey asked questions about perceptions and acceptance of risks, general motivations, attitudes and behaviors concerning electronic identity. Four behavioral paradoxes are identified in the analysis: a privacy paradox (to date well known), but also a control paradox, a responsibility paradox and an awareness paradox. The chapter then examines the paradoxes in relation of three main policy dilemmas framing the debate on digital identity. The paper concludes by arguing for an expanded identity debate spanning policy circles and the engineering community.

  16. Policy on synthetic biology: deliberation, probability, and the precautionary paradox.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wareham, Christopher; Nardini, Cecilia

    2015-02-01

    Synthetic biology is a cutting-edge area of research that holds the promise of unprecedented health benefits. However, in tandem with these large prospective benefits, synthetic biology projects entail a risk of catastrophic consequences whose severity may exceed that of most ordinary human undertakings. This is due to the peculiar nature of synthetic biology as a 'threshold technology' which opens doors to opportunities and applications that are essentially unpredictable. Fears about these potentially unstoppable consequences have led to declarations from civil society groups calling for the use of a precautionary principle to regulate the field. Moreover, the principle is prevalent in law and international agreements. Despite widespread political recognition of a need for caution, the precautionary principle has been extensively criticized as a guide for regulatory policy. We examine a central objection to the principle: that its application entails crippling inaction and incoherence, since whatever action one takes there is always a chance that some highly improbable cataclysm will occur. In response to this difficulty, which we call the 'precautionary paradox,' we outline a deliberative means for arriving at threshold of probability below which potential dangers can be disregarded. In addition, we describe a Bayesian mechanism with which to assign probabilities to harmful outcomes. We argue that these steps resolve the paradox. The rehabilitated PP can thus provide a viable policy option to confront the uncharted waters of synthetic biology research. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. The obesity paradox in patients with severe soft tissue infections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rios-Diaz, Arturo J; Lin, Elissa; Williams, Katherine; Jiang, Wei; Patel, Vihas; Shimizu, Naomi; Metcalfe, David; Olufajo, Olubode A; Cooper, Zara; Havens, Joaquim; Salim, Ali; Askari, Reza

    2017-09-01

    The "obesity paradox" has been demonstrated in chronic diseases but not in acute surgery. We sought to determine whether obesity is associated with improved outcomes in patients with severe soft tissue infections (SSTIs). The 2006 to 2010 Nationwide Inpatient Sample was used to identify adult patients with SSTIs. Patients were categorized into nonobese and obese (nonmorbid [body mass index 30 to 39.9] and morbid [body mass index ≥ 40]). Logistic regression provided risk-adjusted association between obesity categories and inhospital mortality. There were 2,868 records with SSTI weighted to represent 14,080 patients. Obese patients were less likely to die in hospital than nonobese patients (odds ratio [OR] = .42; 95% confidence interval [CI], .25 to .70; P = .001). Subanalysis revealed a similar trend, with lower odds of mortality in nonmorbid obesity (OR = .46; 95% CI, .23 to .91; P = .025) and morbid obesity (OR = .39; 95% CI, .19 to .80; P = .011) groups. Obesity is independently associated with reduced inhospital mortality in patients with SSTI regardless of the obesity classification. This suggests that the obesity paradox exists in this acute surgical population. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Developing points-based risk-scoring systems in the presence of competing risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, Peter C; Lee, Douglas S; D'Agostino, Ralph B; Fine, Jason P

    2016-09-30

    Predicting the occurrence of an adverse event over time is an important issue in clinical medicine. Clinical prediction models and associated points-based risk-scoring systems are popular statistical methods for summarizing the relationship between a multivariable set of patient risk factors and the risk of the occurrence of an adverse event. Points-based risk-scoring systems are popular amongst physicians as they permit a rapid assessment of patient risk without the use of computers or other electronic devices. The use of such points-based risk-scoring systems facilitates evidence-based clinical decision making. There is a growing interest in cause-specific mortality and in non-fatal outcomes. However, when considering these types of outcomes, one must account for competing risks whose occurrence precludes the occurrence of the event of interest. We describe how points-based risk-scoring systems can be developed in the presence of competing events. We illustrate the application of these methods by developing risk-scoring systems for predicting cardiovascular mortality in patients hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction. Code in the R statistical programming language is provided for the implementation of the described methods. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Quantum paradoxes and the collapse of orthodox materialism basics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oleg Avchenko

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Three quantum paradoxical experiments — (1 double-slit, (2 delayed choice, and (3 EPR paradox ones are considered. These experiments definitely indicate the inadequacy of the mate- rialist paradigm. The materialist doctrine can not describe, explain and predict phenomena and strangeness of quantum world, and the concept of matter is inconsistent at the quantum level. Doubtless, from the materialistic point of view, two propositions saying about that the physical properties of the system are in themselves, they are objective and independent of measurement (1\tand measurement (observation of one system does not affect the result of the measurement (observation of another system (2 are not verified by the recent experiments confirming so- called quantum non-locality or non-local realism. In relation to this, we have to doubt the truth of materialist ontology which denies the existence of transcendental objects or any extrasensory phenomena with certainty. There should be set boundaries for the materialist paradigm, beyond which it can not be accepted. The poliontichny paradigm that considers reality in potential and actual modes is proposed as an alternative world view embracing both material and quantum world. The unity of the world is not denied but it can be distinguished by two structural levels — two modes of reality evidencing the dual nature of the Universe.

  20. Computer aided approach for qualitative risk assessment of engineered systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowley, W.K.; Arendt, J.S.; Fussell, J.B.; Rooney, J.J.; Wagner, D.P.

    1978-01-01

    This paper outlines a computer aided methodology for determining the relative contributions of various subsystems and components to the total risk associated with an engineered system. Major contributors to overall task risk are identified through comparison of an expected frequency density function with an established risk criterion. Contributions that are inconsistently high are also identified. The results from this analysis are useful for directing efforts for improving system safety and performance. An analysis of uranium hexafluoride handling risk at a gaseous diffusion uranium enrichment plant using a preliminary version of the computer program EXCON is briefly described and illustrated

  1. Risk-based assessment of the surety of information systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jansma, R.M.; Fletcher, S.K.; Murphy, M.D.; Lim, J.J.; Wyss, G.D.

    1996-07-01

    When software is used in safety-critical, security-critical, or mission-critical situations, it is imperative to understand and manage the risks involved. A risk assessment methodology and toolset have been developed which are specific to software systems and address a broad range of risks including security, safety, and correct operation. A unique aspect of this methodology is the use of a modeling technique that captures interactions and tradeoffs among risk mitigators. This paper describes the concepts and components of the methodology and presents its application to example systems.

  2. A Risk Assessment System with Automatic Extraction of Event Types

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capet, Philippe; Delavallade, Thomas; Nakamura, Takuya; Sandor, Agnes; Tarsitano, Cedric; Voyatzi, Stavroula

    In this article we describe the joint effort of experts in linguistics, information extraction and risk assessment to integrate EventSpotter, an automatic event extraction engine, into ADAC, an automated early warning system. By detecting as early as possible weak signals of emerging risks ADAC provides a dynamic synthetic picture of situations involving risk. The ADAC system calculates risk on the basis of fuzzy logic rules operated on a template graph whose leaves are event types. EventSpotter is based on a general purpose natural language dependency parser, XIP, enhanced with domain-specific lexical resources (Lexicon-Grammar). Its role is to automatically feed the leaves with input data.

  3. Colloquium: The Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen paradox: From concepts to applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reid, M. D.; Drummond, P. D.; Bowen, W. P.; Cavalcanti, E. G.; Lam, P. K.; Bachor, H. A.; Andersen, U. L.; Leuchs, G. [ARC Centre of Excellence for Quantum-Atom Optics and Centre for Atom Optics and Ultrafast Spectroscopy, Swinburne University of Technology, P.O. Box 218, Melbourne, Victoria 3122 Australia (Australia); School of Physical Sciences, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland 4072 (Australia); Centre for Quantum Dynamics, Griffith University, Brisbane, Queensland 4111 (Australia); ARC Centre of Excellence for Quantum-Atom Optics, Building 38, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 0200 (Australia); Department of Physics, Technical University of Denmark, Building 309, 2800 Lyngby (Denmark); Max-Planck Institute for the Science of Light and Department of Physics, Universitaet Erlangen-Nuernberg, D-91058 Erlangen (Germany)

    2009-10-15

    This Colloquium examines the field of the Einstein, Podolsky, and Rosen (EPR) gedanken experiment, from the original paper of Einstein, Podolsky, and Rosen, through to modern theoretical proposals of how to realize both the continuous-variable and discrete versions of the EPR paradox. The relationship with entanglement and Bell's theorem are analyzed, and the progress to date towards experimental confirmation of the EPR paradox is summarized, with a detailed treatment of the continuous-variable paradox in laser-based experiments. Practical techniques covered include continuous-wave parametric amplifier and optical fiber quantum soliton experiments. Current proposals for extending EPR experiments to massive-particle systems are discussed, including spin squeezing, atomic position entanglement, and quadrature entanglement in ultracold atoms. Finally, applications of this technology to quantum key distribution, quantum teleportation, and entanglement swapping are examined.

  4. Colloquium: The Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen paradox: From concepts to applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, M. D.; Drummond, P. D.; Bowen, W. P.; Cavalcanti, E. G.; Lam, P. K.; Bachor, H. A.; Andersen, U. L.; Leuchs, G.

    2009-10-01

    This Colloquium examines the field of the Einstein, Podolsky, and Rosen (EPR) gedanken experiment, from the original paper of Einstein, Podolsky, and Rosen, through to modern theoretical proposals of how to realize both the continuous-variable and discrete versions of the EPR paradox. The relationship with entanglement and Bell’s theorem are analyzed, and the progress to date towards experimental confirmation of the EPR paradox is summarized, with a detailed treatment of the continuous-variable paradox in laser-based experiments. Practical techniques covered include continuous-wave parametric amplifier and optical fiber quantum soliton experiments. Current proposals for extending EPR experiments to massive-particle systems are discussed, including spin squeezing, atomic position entanglement, and quadrature entanglement in ultracold atoms. Finally, applications of this technology to quantum key distribution, quantum teleportation, and entanglement swapping are examined.

  5. Colloquium: The Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen paradox: From concepts to applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reid, M. D.; Drummond, P. D.; Bowen, W. P.; Cavalcanti, E. G.; Lam, P. K.; Bachor, H. A.; Andersen, U. L.; Leuchs, G.

    2009-01-01

    This Colloquium examines the field of the Einstein, Podolsky, and Rosen (EPR) gedanken experiment, from the original paper of Einstein, Podolsky, and Rosen, through to modern theoretical proposals of how to realize both the continuous-variable and discrete versions of the EPR paradox. The relationship with entanglement and Bell's theorem are analyzed, and the progress to date towards experimental confirmation of the EPR paradox is summarized, with a detailed treatment of the continuous-variable paradox in laser-based experiments. Practical techniques covered include continuous-wave parametric amplifier and optical fiber quantum soliton experiments. Current proposals for extending EPR experiments to massive-particle systems are discussed, including spin squeezing, atomic position entanglement, and quadrature entanglement in ultracold atoms. Finally, applications of this technology to quantum key distribution, quantum teleportation, and entanglement swapping are examined.

  6. A Case of Tuberculous Meningitis with Paradoxical Response in a 14-Year-Old Boy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murat Özer

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A clinical or radiological worsening of already existing lesions or an emergence of new lesions after beginning treatment in patients with tuberculosis (TB is referred to as the paradoxical response. This has aroused suspicion regarding the accuracy of diagnosis, the possibilities of treatment failure, or the presence of another underlying disease, and thus it is an important topic for clinicians to understand. In this article, the development of a paradox reaction in a 14-year-old male patient diagnosed with and treated for tuberculosis meningitis is reported. This pediatric patient with a healthy immune system is treated with steroids successfully and reported to elucidate the importance of managing the paradox of TB progression in spite of the appropriate anti-TB medications.

  7. Native intra- and inter-specific reactions may cause the paradox of pest control with harvesting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seno, Hiromi

    2010-05-01

    We analyse a general time-discrete mathematical model of host-parasite population dynamics with harvesting, in which the host can be regarded as a pest. We harvest a portion of the host population at a moment in each year. Our model involves the density effect on the host population. We investigate the condition in which the harvesting of the host results in a paradoxical increase of its equilibrium population size. Our results imply that for a family of pest-enemy systems, the paradox of pest control could be caused essentially by the interspecific relationship and the intraspecific density effect.

  8. Global Commodity Chains & World Income Inequalities: The Missing Link of Inequality and the “Upgrading” Paradox

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin D. Brewer

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available This article links key findings from two major research literatures within contemporary development and globalization studies: global commodity/value chains, and world income inequalities. Forging this missing link exposes what I call the “upgrading paradox” within commodity and value chain analysis. The paradox hinges on the disconnect between the global commodity/value chain literature’s focus on the potential for firms and nations to “upgrade” their position within chains and the roots of the global commodity chain construct in world-systems analysis, a theoretical framework that rejects the potential for widespread and generalizable developmental progress. Findings from the world income inequalities literature do indeed confirm the paradoxical nature of the upgrading discourse, so I conclude by discussing two potential paths for a “post-paradox” commodity chain analysis.

  9. [Healthy obesity? Why the adiposity paradox is only seemingly paradox].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ströhle, Alexander; Worm, Nicolai

    2014-02-01

    The health consequences of being overweight have been discussed controversially. Indeed, from a metabolic point of view, overweight and obese people are quite heterogenous. The body mass index (BMI) is not suitable to predict health oriented outcomes on an individual level without taking into account further parameters such as waist circumference, blood pressure, serum glucose, serum lipids, and physical fitness. The BMI does not distinguish between metabolically healthy and metabolically unhealthy. Of upmost importance for health consequences of obesity is body fat distribution. Two types of principally different fat distribution can be identified: abdominal and gluteofemoral fat. Waist circumference and hip circumference can be utilized to distinguish between those two types. People with accumulation of body fat in the abdominal region have a markedly higher risk of developing type-2-diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Moreover, their total mortality is increased. On the other hand, waist circumference is not sufficiently capable of indicating individual risk. Instead, the amount of visceral fat is believed to be a primary risk factor because of its metabolic characteristics (i. e. increased lipolysis, diabetogenic and atherogenic adipokine profile). Recent findings point to visceral fat being more an indicator of the parallel accumulation of fat deposits in organs placed in the abdomen. The accumulation of lipids in tissues not primary intended for fat storage is called,,ectopic fat". It can be found in muscle, liver, pancreas, and kidney. The fattening of those organs is now considered to have the key role in the pathogenesis of type-2-diabetes. The pathophysiological effects of ectopic fat and the associated metabolic derangements can solve the conflicting findings concerning health consequences of BMI--at least in part. Moreover, these findings may have therapeutic consequences. The reduction of ectopic fat as well as the modification of its metabolic

  10. Decision-Making for Systemic Water Risks: Insights From a Participatory Risk Assessment Process in Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wyrwoll, Paul R.; Grafton, R. Quentin; Daniell, Katherine A.; Chu, Hoang Long; Ringler, Claudia; Lien, Le Thi Ha; Khoi, Dang Kim; Do, Thang Nam; Tuan, Nguyen Do Anh

    2018-03-01

    Systemic threats to food-energy-environment-water systems require national policy responses. Yet complete control of these complex systems is impossible and attempts to mitigate systemic risks can generate unexpected feedback effects. Perverse outcomes from national policy can emerge from the diverse responses of decision-makers across different levels and scales of resource governance. Participatory risk assessment processes can help planners to understand subnational dynamics and ensure that policies do not undermine the resilience of social-ecological systems and infrastructure networks. Researchers can play an important role in participatory processes as both technical specialists and brokers of stakeholder knowledge on the feedbacks generated by systemic risks and policy decisions. Here, we evaluate the use of causal modeling and participatory risk assessment to develop national policy on systemic water risks. We present an application of the Risks and Options Assessment for Decision-Making (ROAD) process to a district of Vietnam where national agricultural water reforms are being piloted. The methods and results of this project provide general insights about how to support resilient decision-making, including the transfer of knowledge across administrative levels, identification of feedback effects, and the effective implementation of risk assessment processes.

  11. Risks of a town-forming enterprise in the risk system of a company town

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonyuk V.S.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to review of risks of a town-forming enterprise in the risk system of the company town counterparties (infrastructure, population, small and medium business, local self-government authorities. It contains an algorithm of stepwise study of risks of a town-forming enterprise from the perspective of their interconnection with the risk system of the company town counterparties. Approbation of theoretical and methodical provisions by the example of town-forming enterprise Asha Metallurgical Plant OJSC, Asha, Chelyabinsk region, with the help of the graph theory allowed to analyze interconnections and dependence of risks of the town-forming enterprise and to make a conclusion on its negative role in creation of a crisis situation in the economy of the company town. The article is completed with a complex of lines for neutralization of risks of AMP OJSC: TFE’s infrastructural and technological risk management; personnel risk management policy; mitigation of consumer, product and supply risks; competitive struggle risk management and advertising risk management.

  12. Sustainable nanotechnology decision support system: bridging risk management, sustainable innovation and risk governance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Subramanian, Vrishali; Semenzin, Elena; Hristozov, Danail; Zabeo, Alex; Malsch, Ineke; McAlea, Eamonn; Murphy, Finbarr; Mullins, Martin; Harmelen, Toon van; Ligthart, Tom; Linkov, Igor; Marcomini, Antonio

    2016-01-01

    The significant uncertainties associated with the (eco)toxicological risks of engineered nanomaterials pose challenges to the development of nano-enabled products toward greatest possible societal benefit. This paper argues for the use of risk governance approaches to manage nanotechnology risks and sustainability, and considers the links between these concepts. Further, seven risk assessment and management criteria relevant to risk governance are defined: (a) life cycle thinking, (b) triple bottom line, (c) inclusion of stakeholders, (d) risk management, (e) benefit–risk assessment, (f) consideration of uncertainty, and (g) adaptive response. These criteria are used to compare five well-developed nanotechnology frameworks: International Risk Governance Council framework, Comprehensive Environmental Assessment, Streaming Life Cycle Risk Assessment, Certifiable Nanospecific Risk Management and Monitoring System and LICARA NanoSCAN. A Sustainable Nanotechnology Decision Support System (SUNDS) is proposed to better address current nanotechnology risk assessment and management needs, and makes. Stakeholder needs were solicited for further SUNDS enhancement through a stakeholder workshop that included representatives from regulatory, industry and insurance sectors. Workshop participants expressed the need for the wider adoption of sustainability assessment methods and tools for designing greener nanomaterials.

  13. Sustainable nanotechnology decision support system: bridging risk management, sustainable innovation and risk governance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Subramanian, Vrishali, E-mail: vrishali.subramanian@unive.it; Semenzin, Elena; Hristozov, Danail; Zabeo, Alex [University Ca’ Foscari of Venice, Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics (Italy); Malsch, Ineke [Malsch TechnoValuation (Netherlands); McAlea, Eamonn; Murphy, Finbarr; Mullins, Martin [University of Limerick, Kemmy Business School (Ireland); Harmelen, Toon van; Ligthart, Tom [TNO (Netherlands); Linkov, Igor; Marcomini, Antonio, E-mail: marcom@unive.it [University Ca’ Foscari of Venice, Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics (Italy)

    2016-04-15

    The significant uncertainties associated with the (eco)toxicological risks of engineered nanomaterials pose challenges to the development of nano-enabled products toward greatest possible societal benefit. This paper argues for the use of risk governance approaches to manage nanotechnology risks and sustainability, and considers the links between these concepts. Further, seven risk assessment and management criteria relevant to risk governance are defined: (a) life cycle thinking, (b) triple bottom line, (c) inclusion of stakeholders, (d) risk management, (e) benefit–risk assessment, (f) consideration of uncertainty, and (g) adaptive response. These criteria are used to compare five well-developed nanotechnology frameworks: International Risk Governance Council framework, Comprehensive Environmental Assessment, Streaming Life Cycle Risk Assessment, Certifiable Nanospecific Risk Management and Monitoring System and LICARA NanoSCAN. A Sustainable Nanotechnology Decision Support System (SUNDS) is proposed to better address current nanotechnology risk assessment and management needs, and makes. Stakeholder needs were solicited for further SUNDS enhancement through a stakeholder workshop that included representatives from regulatory, industry and insurance sectors. Workshop participants expressed the need for the wider adoption of sustainability assessment methods and tools for designing greener nanomaterials.

  14. Advancing Risk Assessment through the Application of Systems Toxicology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, John Michael; Kleensang, André; Peitsch, Manuel C.; Hayes, A. Wallace

    2016-01-01

    Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the probability of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from human activities. Mechanistic approaches to risk assessment have been generally referred to as systems toxicology. Systems toxicology makes use of advanced analytical and computational tools to integrate classical toxicology and quantitative analysis of large networks of molecular and functional changes occurring across multiple levels of biological organization. Three presentations including two case studies involving both in vitro and in vivo approaches described the current state of systems toxicology and the potential for its future application in chemical risk assessment. PMID:26977253

  15. Responsible Investment: Taxes and Paradoxes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Knuutinen Reijo

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Taxes have become an issue of corporate social responsibility (CSR, but the role of taxation is to some extent an ambiguous and controversial issue in the CSR framework. Similarly, another unclear question is what role investors who are committed to sustainable and responsible investment (SRI see taxes as having on their environmental, social, and governance (ESG agenda. Corporate taxes have an inverse relationship with the return of the investors: taxes paid directly affect what is left on the bottom line, reducing the return of investors. However, investors are now more aware of tax-related risks, which can include different forms of reputation risk. Corporate tax planning may increase the returns, but those increased returns are riskier. This study focuses particularly on the relationship between SRI and taxation. We find that tax matters are considered to be on the ESG agenda, but their role and significance in the ESG analysis is unclear.

  16. Retroflection from slanted coastlines-circumventing the "vorticity paradox"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Zharkov

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The balance of long-shore momentum flux requires that the solution of zonally retroflecting currents involve ring shedding on the western side. An important aspect of the ring dynamics is the ring intensity α (analogous to the Rossby number, which reaches its maximum value of unity when the upstream potential vorticity (PV is zero. Friction leads to a slow-down and a decrease in α. The main difficulty is that the solution of the system of equations for conservation of mass and momentum of zonal currents leads to the conclusion that the ratio (Φ of the mass flux going into the rings and the total incoming mass flux is approximately 4α/(1+2α. This yields the "vorticity paradox" – only relatively weak rings (α≤1/2 could satisfy the necessary condition Φ≤1. Physically, this means, for example, that the momentum-flux of zero PV currents upstream is so high that, no matter how many rings are produced and, no matter what size they are, they cannot compensate for it.

    To avoid this paradox, we develop a nonlinear analytical model of retroflection from a slanted non-zonal coastline. We show that when the slant of coastline (γ exceeds merely 150, Φ does not reach unity regardless of the value of α. Namely, the paradox disappears even for small slants. Our slowly varying nonlinear solution does not only let us circumvent the paradox. It also gives a detailed description of the rings growth rate and the mass flux going into the rings as a function of time. For example, in the case of zero PV and zero thickness of the upper layer along the coastline, the maximal values of Φ can be approximately expressed as, 1.012+0.32exp(−γ/3.41−γ/225. Interestingly, for significant slants γ≥300, the rings reach a terminal size corresponding to a balance between the β-force and both the upstream and downstream momentum fluxes. This terminal size is unrelated to the ultimate

  17. Information systems outsourcing reasons and risks: a new assessment

    OpenAIRE

    González Ramírez, María Reyes; Gascó Gascó, José Luis; Llopis Taverner, Juan

    2010-01-01

    Outsourcing is currently going through a stage of unstoppable growth. This paper makes a proposal about the main reasons which may lead firms to adopt Outsourcing in Information Systems services. It will equally analyse the potential risks that IS clients are likely to face. An additional objective is to assess these reasons and risks in the case of large Spanish firms, while simultaneously examining their evolution over time. This study of outsourcing reasons and risks has been carried out f...

  18. Environmental Risk Assessment System for Phosphogypsum Tailing Dams

    OpenAIRE

    Xin Sun; Ping Ning; Xiaolong Tang; Honghong Yi; Kai Li; Lianbi Zhou; Xianmang Xu

    2013-01-01

    This paper may be of particular interest to the readers as it provides a new environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams. In this paper, we studied the phosphogypsum tailing dams which include characteristics of the pollution source, environmental risk characteristics and evaluation requirements to identify the applicable environmental risk assessment methods. Two analytical methods, that is, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy logic, were used to handle the...

  19. Risk-benefit evaluation for large technological systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okrent, D.

    1979-01-01

    The related topics of risk-benefit analysis, risk analysis, and risk-acceptance criteria (How safe is safe enough) are of growing importance. An interdisciplinary study on various aspects of these topics, including applications to nuclear power, was recently completed at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), with the support of the National Science Foundation. In addition to more than 30 topical reports and various open-literature publications, a final report (UCLA-ENG-7777) to the study, titled ''A Generalized Evaluation Approach to Risk--Benefit for Large Technological Systems and Its Application to Nuclear Power'', was issued in early 1978. This article briefly summarizes portions of the final report dealing with general aspects of risk-benefit methodology, societal knowledge and perception of risk, and risk-acceptance criteria

  20. Belgium: risk adjustment and financial responsibility in a centralised system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schokkaert, Erik; Van de Voorde, Carine

    2003-07-01

    Since 1995 Belgian sickness funds are partially financed through a risk adjustment system and are held partially financially responsible for the difference between their actual and their risk-adjusted expenditures. However, they did not get the necessary instruments for exerting a real influence on expenditures and the health insurance market has not been opened for new entrants. At the same time the sickness funds have powerful tools for risk selection, because they also dominate the market for supplementary health insurance. The present risk-adjustment system is based on the results of a regression analysis with aggregate data. The main proclaimed purpose of this system is to guarantee a fair treatment to all the sickness funds. Until now the danger of risk selection has not been taken seriously. Consumer mobility has remained rather low. However, since the degree of financial responsibility is programmed to increase in the near future, the potential profits from cream skimming will increase.

  1. Risk Assessment of Power System considering the CPS of Transformers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Long; Peng, Zewu; Liu, Xindong; Li, Canbing; Chen, Can

    2018-02-01

    This paper constructs a risk assessment framework of power system for device-level information security, analyzes the typical protection configuration of power transformers, and takes transformer gas protection and differential protection as examples to put forward a method that analyzes the cyber security in electric power system, which targets transformer protection parameters. We estimate the risk of power system accounting for the cyber security of transformer through utilizing Monte Carlo method and two indexes, which are the loss of load probability and the expected demand not supplied. The proposed approach is tested with IEEE 9 bus system and IEEE 118 bus system.

  2. Proactive Management of Aviation System Safety Risk

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Aviation safety systems have undergone dramatic changes over the past fifty years. If you take a look at the early technology in this area, you'll see that there was...

  3. Comparative risk assessment of total energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soerensen, B.

    1982-01-01

    The paper discusses a methodology for total impact assessment of energy systems, ideally evaluating all the impacts that a given energy system has on the society in which it is imbedded or into which its introduction is being considered. Impacts from the entire energy conversion chain ('fuel cycle' if the system is fuel-based), including energy storage, transport and transmission, as well as the institutions formed in order to manage the system, should be compared on the basis of the energy service provided. A number of impacts are considered, broadly classified as impacts on satisfaction of biological needs, on health, on environment, on social relations and on the structure of society. Further considerations include impacts related to cost and resilience, and, last but not least, impacts on global relations. The paper discusses a number of published energy studies in the light of the comparative impact assessment methodology outlined above. (author)

  4. Systemic Risk and Optimal Regulatory Architecture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Espinosa-Vega, M.A.; Kahn, C.; Matta, R.; Sole, J.

    2011-01-01

    Until the recent financial crisis, the safety and soundness of financial institutions was assessed from the perspective of the individual institution. The financial crisis highlighted the need to take systemic externalities seriously when rethinking prudential oversight and the regulatory

  5. Development of a system utilizing data of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagasaka, Akihiko; Takano, Kenichi; Ebisu, Mitsuhiro; Aikawa, Tadashi; Hayase, Kenichi

    2004-01-01

    This report deals with a concrete method of utilizing data of risk assessment. First, the authors point out the necessity to assess all stages of jobs (planning, meeting with contractors, performing phase of task, etc.) in risk assessment bout jobs in electric power company, because most jobs are performed by contract system and risks of a job are distributed over electric company, contractors and subcontractors. Secondly, risks estimated from past accidents and near-miss events must be included. If these 2 requirements are fulfilled, data of risk assessment can be more useful. Then below 4 forms of present data of risk assessment were developed. A form to be used in job planning stage in electric companies for efficient investment planning in safety measures. A form to be used in meetings between electric companies and contractors for checking accident prevention methods. A form to be used in meetings between contractors and subcontractors for enhancing a shared awareness of risk. A form to be used in tool box meetings for confirming safe condition and inheriting of ability of risk perception. Additionally, a data base system of risk assessment about 4 jobs was developed. This system prints out about 4 forms for each job and is useful for PDCA of safety activities. (author)

  6. An integrated risk sensing system for geo-structural safety

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    H.W. Huang; D.M. Zhang; B.M. Ayyub

    2017-01-01

    Over the last decades, geo-structures are experiencing a rapid development in China. The potential risks inherent in the huge amount of construction and asset operation projects in China were well managed in the major project, i.e. the project of Shanghai Yangtze tunnel in 2002. Since then, risk assessment of geo-structures has been gradually developed from a qualitative manner to a quantitative manner. However, the current practices of risk management have been paid considerable attention to the assessment, but little on risk control. As a result, the responses to risks occurrences after a comprehensive assessment are basically too late. In this paper, a smart system for risk sensing incorporating the wireless sensor network (WSN) on-site visualization techniques and the resilience-based repair strategy was proposed. The merit of this system is the real-time monitoring for geo-structural performance and dynamic pre-warning for safety of on-site workers. The sectional convergence, joint opening, and seepage of segmental lining of shield tunnel were monitored by the micro-electro-mechanical systems (MEMS) based sensors. The light emitting diode (LED) coupling with the above WSN system was used to indicate different risk levels on site. By sensing the risks and telling the risks in real time, the geo-risks could be controlled and the safety of geo-structures could be assured to a certain degree. Finally, a resilience-based analysis model was proposed for designing the repair strategy by using the measured data from the WSN system. The application and efficiency of this system have been validated by two cases including Shanghai metro tunnel and underwater road tunnel.

  7. Autonomous Weapon Systems and Risk Management in Hybrid Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nørgaard, Katrine

    hand, governments and military services hope to develop game-changing technologies, that are ‘better, faster and cheaper’. In this paper, I wish to show how different and competing regimes of justification shape the technopolitical controversy and risk management of autonomous weapon systems...... of justification and risk management in contemporary conflicts....

  8. 75 FR 13145 - SBA Lender Risk Rating System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-18

    ... SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION [Docket No. SBA-2010-0004] SBA Lender Risk Rating System AGENCY: Small Business Administration. ACTION: Notice; extension of comment period and correction. SUMMARY: On... of Credit Risk Management, U.S. Small Business Administration, 409 Third Street, SW., 8th Floor...

  9. Integrated Risk Framework for Onsite Wastewater Treatment Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carroll, Steven; Goonetilleke, Ashantha; Thomas, Evan; Hargreaves, Megan; Frost, Ray; Dawes, Les

    2006-08-01

    Onsite wastewater treatment systems (OWTS) are becoming increasingly important for the treatment and dispersal of effluent in new urbanised developments that are not serviced by centralised wastewater collection and treatment systems. However, the current standards and guidelines adopted by many local authorities for assessing suitable site and soil conditions for OWTS are increasingly coming under scrutiny due to the public health and environmental impacts caused by poorly performing systems, in particular septic tank-soil adsorption systems. In order to achieve sustainable onsite wastewater treatment with minimal impacts on the environment and public health, more appropriate means of assessment are required. This paper highlights an integrated risk based approach for assessing the inherent hazards associated with OWTS in order to manage and mitigate the environmental and public health risks inherent with onsite wastewater treatment. In developing a sound and cohesive integrated risk framework for OWTS, several key issues must be recognised. These include the inclusion of relevant stakeholders throughout framework development, the integration of scientific knowledge, data and analysis with risk assessment and management ideals, and identification of the appropriate performance goals for successful management and mitigation of associated risks. These issues were addressed in the development of the risk framework to provide a generic approach to assessing risk from OWTS. The utilisation of the developed risk framework for achieving more appropriate assessment and management techniques for OWTS is presented in a case study for the Gold Coast region, Queensland State, Australia.

  10. Risk-return relationship in a complex adaptive system.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kunyu Song

    Full Text Available For survival and development, autonomous agents in complex adaptive systems involving the human society must compete against or collaborate with others for sharing limited resources or wealth, by using different methods. One method is to invest, in order to obtain payoffs with risk. It is a common belief that investments with a positive risk-return relationship (namely, high risk high return and vice versa are dominant over those with a negative risk-return relationship (i.e., high risk low return and vice versa in the human society; the belief has a notable impact on daily investing activities of investors. Here we investigate the risk-return relationship in a model complex adaptive system, in order to study the effect of both market efficiency and closeness that exist in the human society and play an important role in helping to establish traditional finance/economics theories. We conduct a series of computer-aided human experiments, and also perform agent-based simulations and theoretical analysis to confirm the experimental observations and reveal the underlying mechanism. We report that investments with a negative risk-return relationship have dominance over those with a positive risk-return relationship instead in such a complex adaptive systems. We formulate the dynamical process for the system's evolution, which helps to discover the different role of identical and heterogeneous preferences. This work might be valuable not only to complexity science, but also to finance and economics, to management and social science, and to physics.

  11. Risk-return relationship in a complex adaptive system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Kunyu; An, Kenan; Yang, Guang; Huang, Jiping

    2012-01-01

    For survival and development, autonomous agents in complex adaptive systems involving the human society must compete against or collaborate with others for sharing limited resources or wealth, by using different methods. One method is to invest, in order to obtain payoffs with risk. It is a common belief that investments with a positive risk-return relationship (namely, high risk high return and vice versa) are dominant over those with a negative risk-return relationship (i.e., high risk low return and vice versa) in the human society; the belief has a notable impact on daily investing activities of investors. Here we investigate the risk-return relationship in a model complex adaptive system, in order to study the effect of both market efficiency and closeness that exist in the human society and play an important role in helping to establish traditional finance/economics theories. We conduct a series of computer-aided human experiments, and also perform agent-based simulations and theoretical analysis to confirm the experimental observations and reveal the underlying mechanism. We report that investments with a negative risk-return relationship have dominance over those with a positive risk-return relationship instead in such a complex adaptive systems. We formulate the dynamical process for the system's evolution, which helps to discover the different role of identical and heterogeneous preferences. This work might be valuable not only to complexity science, but also to finance and economics, to management and social science, and to physics.

  12. SYSTEM RISKS OF ENTERPRISES AND TERRITORIES DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.S. Bochko

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the problem of failures in interaction between industrial enterprises and territories. The authors see the reason for that in industrial enterprises taking unnecessary risks. The authors also suggest a new vision for the realization of social responsibility of the businesses via balanced management of system risks.

  13. The simple analytics of systemic liquidity risk regulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perotti, E.; Suarez, J.

    2011-01-01

    How to regulate systemic risk? This column presents a new CEPR discussion paper assessing the performance of Pigouvian taxes and quantity-based regulations in containing the social costs of high-risk banking. It finds that, depending on how banks differ, the socially efficient solution may be

  14. Evaluating the Security Risks of System Using Hidden Markov Models

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    System security assessment tools are either restricted to manual risk evaluation methodologies that are not appropriate for real-time application or used to determine the impact of certain events on the security status of networked systems. In this paper, we determine the strength of computer systems from the perspective of ...

  15. Timelike symmetry of the quantum transition and Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen paradox

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costa de Beauregard, Olivier

    1976-01-01

    The non-locality in the paradox is very close to that of Feynman's electron-positron system: the sum of two timelike vectors with 4th components of opposite signs may be spacelike. The intrinsic time symmetry of the quantum transition consists in the presence of both the delayed and the advanced wave inside the ''collapsed'' wave [fr

  16. Simpson's Paradox and Confounding Factors in University Rankings: A Demonstration Using QS 2011-12 Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soh, Kay Cheng

    2012-01-01

    University ranking has become ritualistic in higher education. Ranking results are taken as bona fide by rank users. Ranking systems usually use large data sets from highly heterogeneous universities of varied backgrounds. This poses the problem of Simpson's Paradox and the lurking variables causing it. Using QS 2011-2012 Ranking data, the dual…

  17. The house economist and the eating paradox.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woods, Stephen C

    2002-04-01

    An important observation of the experiments of George Collier is that animals normally prefer to maintain their body weight by eating a large number of small meals each day. However, as the effort to obtain access to food increases, the animals adapt by changing to a schedule of eating a small number of large meals each day. A strong implication of this is that there is a hidden cost to eating large meals, and this is the basis of the eating paradox that states that although food is a necessary commodity, the act of ingesting it poses certain metabolic problems for animals. Experiments on cephalic insulin secretion, conditioned insulin secretion and meal feeding are discussed to make the point that the economy demonstrated by rats in Collier's paradigm is dictated in part by predictions of the eating paradox. Copyright 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd.

  18. Un théoricien paradoxal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacques Dubois

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Professeur de littérature française à Paris-VIII et psychanalyste, Pierre Bayard a publié en quinze ans une dizaine d’ouvrages critiques dans la collection « Paradoxe » des éditions de Minuit. À croire que cette collection a été créée à sa seule intention tant chacun de ses livres inverse radicalement un principe bien établi et pousse le paradoxe jusqu’à ses ultimes conséquences, voire jusqu’à l’absurde. L’exemple le plus flagrant est ce Comment parler des livres que l’on n’a pas lus ?, qui, ...

  19. Steering, Entanglement, Nonlocality, and the EPR Paradox

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiseman, Howard; Jones, Steve; Andrew, Doherty

    2007-06-01

    The concept of steering was introduced by Schroedinger in 1935 as a generalization of the EPR paradox for arbitrary pure bipartite entangled states and arbitrary measurements by one party. Until now, it has never been rigorously defined, so it has not been known (for example) what mixed states are steerable (that is, can be used to exhibit steering). We provide an operational definition, from which we prove (by considering Werner states and Isotropic states) that steerable states are a strict subset of the entangled states, and a strict superset of the states that can exhibit Bell-nonlocality. For arbitrary bipartite Gaussian states we derive a linear matrix inequality that decides the question of steerability via Gaussian measurements, and we relate this to the original EPR paradox.

  20. A history of the Allais paradox.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heukelom, Floris

    2015-03-01

    This article documents the history of the Allais paradox, and shows that underneath the many discussions of the various protagonists lay different, irreconcilable epistemological positions. Savage, like his mentor von Neumann and similar to economist Friedman, worked from an epistemology of generalized characterizations. Allais, on the other hand, like economists Samuelson and Baumol, started from an epistemology of exact descriptions in which every axiom was an empirical claim that could be refuted directly by observations. As a result, the two sides failed to find a common ground. Only a few decades later was the now so-called Allais paradox rediscovered as an important precursor when a new behavioural economic subdiscipline started to adopt the epistemology of exact descriptions and its accompanying falsifications of rational choice theory.

  1. Problems and paradoxes of the Lifshitz theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klimchitskaya, G L

    2009-01-01

    The problems and paradoxes of the Lifshitz theory in application to real dielectric and semiconductor materials are reviewed. It is shown that the inclusion of drift current of conduction electrons into the model of dielectric response results in contradictions with both thermodynamics and experimental data of different experimental groups. Physical reasons why the problems and paradoxes arise are analyzed and found to be connected with the violation of basic applicability condition of the Lifshitz theory, the thermal equilibrium. A recent alternative approach to the resolution of the problems based on the inclusion of screening effects and diffusion current is considered and demonstrated to be thermodynamically and experimentally inconsistent. It is argued that the inclusion of the diffusion current leads to an even deeper violation of thermal equilibrium. Phenomenologically, the Lifshitz theory with role of drift and diffusion currents neglected is shown to be free of problems and in agreement with both thermodynamics and all available experimental data.

  2. The Klein paradox: a new treatment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Truebenbacher, E

    2015-01-01

    The Dirac equation requires a treatment of the step potential that differs fundamentally from the traditional treatment, because the Dirac plane waves, besides momentum and spin, are characterized by a quantum number with the physical meaning of sign of charge. Since the Hermitean operator corresponding to this quantum number does not commute with the step potential, the time displacement parameter used in the ansatz of the stationary state does not have the physical meaning of energy. Therefore there are no paradoxal values of the ‘energy’. The new solution of the Dirac equation with a step potential is obtained. This solution, again, allows for phenomena of the Klein paradox type, but in addition it contains a positron amplitude localized at the threshold point of the step potential. (paper)

  3. The eight paradoxes of nuclear information

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Timbal-Duclaux, Louis

    1977-01-01

    As it now develops, the nuclear debate is essentially characterized by its technical, mythical and polemical fields. Due to the interrelation between these three characteristics, paradox tends to multiply, either on the requesters for information side or from those who answer it. As many problems the people or organizations, such as E.D.F. for example, have to cope with as there are parties in this debate. These different paradoxes are analyzed together with some means which permits a suitable answer to be found. To conclude it is noted that if the nuclear fear is mostly imaginary passional, irrational, the problem is not to ignore these characteristics but to 'give them a statute' [fr

  4. Klein paradox in the Breit equation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krolikowski, W.; Turski, A.; Rzewuski, J.

    1979-01-01

    We demonstrate that in the Breit equation with a central potential V(r) having the property V(r 0 )=E there appears a Klein paradox at r=r 0 . This phenomenon, besides the previously found Klein paradox at r→infinite appearing if V(r)→infinite at r→infinite, seems to indicate that in the Breit equation valid in the single-particle theory the sea of particle-antiparticle pairs is not well separated from the considered two-body configuration. We conjecture that both phenomena should be absent from the Salpeter equation which is consistent with the hole theory. We prove this conjecture in the limit of m( 1 )→infinite and m( 2 )→infinite, where we neglect the terms approx. 1/m( 1 ) and 1/m( 2 ). (orig./WL) [de

  5. Some human performance paradoxes of nuclear operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otway, H.J.; Misenta, R.

    1980-01-01

    Roughly once a year, an abnormal situation with emergency potential may suddenly break the calm monotony of nuclear-power plant operation. The operating crew, perhaps under-stimulated by monitoring largely automatic processes, may then be expected to make correct inferences and decisions about complex phenomena. However, under stress, the operators may resort to using their 'best-learned responses', inappropriate to the real situation. Recent events at Three Mile Island prompted a variety of suggestions intended to improve operator performance, eg higher qualifications, more pay, or enhanced status. The authors stress the paradoxes of nuclear operation, conclude that some 'intuitively obvious' suggestions might have the opposite effect to that intended, and explore the possibility of introducing frequent, realistic emergency drills. Even this approach raises paradoxes - perhaps the role of the operator should be eliminated, or redefined to allow less human intervention in emergencies. (author)

  6. MODELING PARADOXES IN NOVICE AND EXPERT DESIGN

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dorst, Kees; Hansen, Claus Thorp

    2011-01-01

    In their ICED09 paper ‘Problem formulation as a discursive activity’, the authors have used an extensive educational case study to explore a framework for describing design as a discursive activity, centered around the paradoxical nature of the problem situation. The ‘working definition’ for para......In their ICED09 paper ‘Problem formulation as a discursive activity’, the authors have used an extensive educational case study to explore a framework for describing design as a discursive activity, centered around the paradoxical nature of the problem situation. The ‘working definition...... at play in a design situation, and extract themes that can lead to reformulation of the problem as well as the creation of innovative solutions. This behaviour is compared to the ways of working of novice designers (students) in the original case study....

  7. A Canadian paradox: Tommy Douglas and eugenics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shevell, Michael

    2012-01-01

    Tommy Douglas is an icon of Canadian 20th Century political history and is considered by many as the "Father" of Medicare, a key component of our national identity. Throughout his career, he was associated at both the provincial and federal levels with progressive causes concerning disadvantaged populations. In his sociology Master's thesis written in the early 1930's, Douglas endorsed eugenic oriented solutions such as segregation and sterilization to address what was perceived to be an endemic and biologically determined problem. At first glance, this endorsement of eugenics appears to be paradoxical, but careful analysis revealed that this paradox has multiple roots in religion, political belief, historical exposure and our own desire to view our collective history in a favourable light.

  8. DASH - Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS): High School

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — 1991-2015. High School Dataset. The Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS) monitors six categories of priority health behaviors among youth and young...

  9. Nutrition, Physical Activity, and Obesity - Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — This dataset includes data on adult's diet, physical activity, and weight status from Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. This data is used for DNPAO's Data,...

  10. DASH - Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS): Middle School

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — 1991-2015. Middle School Dataset. The Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS) monitors six categories of priority health behaviors among youth and young...

  11. Credit Risk Evaluation System For Nigerian Banks Using Artificial Ne

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    MANKABS

    CREDIT RISK EVALUATION SYSTEM: AN ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK APPROACH of their own experiential .... limitations concern the high computational ... Number of existing credits at this bank. 7. Personal status and sex. 14. Job. 17.

  12. Nutrition, Physical Activity, and Obesity - Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — This dataset includes data on adolescent's diet, physical activity, and weight status from Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS). This data is used for...

  13. Transient stability risk assessment of power systems incorporating wind farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Miao, Lu; Fang, Jiakun; Wen, Jinyu

    2013-01-01

    fed induction generator has been established. Wind penetration variation and multiple stochastic factors of power systems have been considered. The process of transient stability risk assessment based on the Monte Carlo method has been described and a comprehensive risk indicator has been proposed......Large-scale wind farm integration has brought several aspects of challenges to the transient stability of power systems. This paper focuses on the research of the transient stability of power systems incorporating with wind farms by utilizing risk assessment methods. The detailed model of double....... An investigation has been conducted into an improved 10-generator 39-bus system with a wind farm incorporated to verify the validity and feasibility of the risk assessment method proposed....

  14. Application of Risk Management for Control and Monitoring Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Grau, S; Balda, F; Chouvelon, A

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents an application of the state of the art and new trends for risk management of safety-related control and monitoring systems, currently applied in the industry. These techniques not only enable to manage safety and reliability issues but they also help in the control of quality and economic factors affected by the availability and maintenance of the system. The method includes an unambiguous definition of the system in terms of functions and a systematic analysis of hazardous situations, undesired events and possible malfunctions. It also includes the identification and quantification of the risk associated to the system. The required risk reduction is specified in terms of safety integrity levels. The safety integrity level results in requirements, preventive measures, possible improvements and recommendations to assure the satisfactory management of the risk.

  15. Risk management of non-renewable energy systems

    CERN Document Server

    Verma, Ajit Kumar; Muruva, Hari Prasad

    2015-01-01

    This book describes the basic concepts of risk and reliability with detailed descriptions of the different levels of probabilistic safety assessment of nuclear power plants (both internal and external). The book also maximizes readers insights into time dependent risk analysis through several case studies, whilst risk management with respect to non renewable energy sources is also explained. With several advanced reactors utilizing the concept of passive systems, the reliability estimation of these systems are explained in detail with the book providing a reliability estimation of components through mechanistic model approach. This book is useful for advanced undergraduate and post graduate students in nuclear engineering, aerospace engineering, industrial engineering, reliability and safety engineering, systems engineering and applied probability and statistics. This book is also suitable for one-semester graduate courses on risk management of non renewable energy systems in all conventional engineering bran...

  16. Progressive paradoxical sleep deprivation impairs partial memory following learning tasks in rats

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Chunmin Zhu; Xiangrong Yao; Weisheng Zhang; Yanfeng Song; Yiping Hou

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Complex learning tasks result in a greater number of paradoxical sleep phases, which can improve memory. The effect of paradoxical sleep deprivation, induced by "flower pot" technique, on spatial reference memory and working memory require further research. OBJECTIVE: To observe the effect of progressive paradoxical sleep deprivation in rats, subsequent to learning, on memory using the Morris Water Maze. DESIGN, TIME AND SETTING: Controlled observation experiment. The experiment was performed at the Laboratory of Neurobiology, Department of Anatomy, Histology and Embryology, School of Basic Medical Sciences, Lanzhou University from December 2006 to October 2007. MATERIALS: Twenty-eight, male, Wistar rats, 3-4 months old, were provided by the Experimental Animal Center of Lanzhou University. The Morris Water Maze and behavioral analyses system was purchased from Genheart Company, Beijing, China. METHODS: All animals, according to a random digits table, were randomly divided into paradoxical sleep deprivation, tank control, and home cage control groups. Paradoxical sleep deprivation was induced by the "flower pot" technique for 72 hours, housing the rats on small platforms over water. Rats in the "tank control" and "home cage control" groups were housed either in a tank with large platforms over the water or in normal cages without paradoxical sleep deprivation. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Morris Water Maze was employed for task learning and spatial memory testing. Rats in all groups were placed at six random starting points each day for four consecutive days. Each placement was repeated for two trials; the first trial represented reference memory and the second working memory. Rats in the first trial were allowed to locate the submerged platform within 120 seconds. Data, including swimming distance, escape latency, swimming velocity, percentage of time in correct quarter, and memory scores were recorded and analyzed automatically by behavioral analyses

  17. Two Paradoxes in Linear Regression Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    FENG, Ge; PENG, Jing; TU, Dongke; ZHENG, Julia Z.; FENG, Changyong

    2016-01-01

    Summary Regression is one of the favorite tools in applied statistics. However, misuse and misinterpretation of results from regression analysis are common in biomedical research. In this paper we use statistical theory and simulation studies to clarify some paradoxes around this popular statistical method. In particular, we show that a widely used model selection procedure employed in many publications in top medical journals is wrong. Formal procedures based on solid statistical theory should be used in model selection. PMID:28638214

  18. Elevation in brain temperature during paradoxical sleep.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawamura, H; Sawyer, C H

    1965-11-12

    During ordinary sleep, the temperature of the rabbit brain tended to drop, but during paradoxical sleep it rose sharply 0.1 degrees to 0.4 degrees C, a greater elevation than was observed during arousal. Changes in body temperature generally did not parallel the alterations in brain temperature. Shifts of direct-current potential in the brain are basically independent of the changes in brain temperature.

  19. Steering, Entanglement, Nonlocality, and the EPR Paradox

    OpenAIRE

    Wiseman, H. M.; Jones, S. J.; Doherty, A. C.

    2006-01-01

    The concept of steering was introduced by Schrodinger in 1935 as a generalization of the EPR paradox for arbitrary pure bipartite entangled states and arbitrary measurements by one party. Until now, it has never been rigorously defined, so it has not been known (for example) what mixed states are steerable (that is, can be used to exhibit steering). We provide an operational definition, from which we prove (by considering Werner states and Isotropic states) that steerable states are a strict ...

  20. Time symmetry and the Einstein paradox

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costa de Beauregard, O.

    1977-01-01

    The characteristic difference between the paleoquantal calculation (addition of partial probabilities) and the neoquantal one (addition of partial amplitudes) for the correlation of photon polarizations in cascade transitions is derived in terms of elementary trigonometry. This deliberate use of simple formulae aims at a transparent rendering of the change in paradigm required by the so-called EPR paradox (which is truly the 1927 Einstein paradox), namely that 1) the two photons do not possess polarizations of their own when leaving the source C, but borrow one later, when interacting with the analysers L and N; 2) the die is thus not cast at C, but later, at L and N; 3) the correlation between the measurements at L and N is tied through C, in their common past. The tight connection between this ''Einstein nonseparability'' and the nonlocality in Feynman's ''theory of positrons'' is demonstrated through an analysis of the e + e - annihilation into two photons. Thus the Einstein paradox corresponds, in the ''new wavelike probability calculus'', to the Loschmid and Zermelo sort of paradox in the old probability calculus. That is, it contrasts the intrinsic time symmetry existing at the elementary level to the factlike macroscopic time asymmetry. The discussion deliberately by-passes the hidden-variable problem, the model in this being Einstein's by-passing of the mechanical aether when proposing special relativity. It is believed today, like in 1905, the problem is tayloring the wording after the (operationally good) mathematics. Moreover, that the change in paradigm, which is needed, comes through a victory of formalism over modelism. (author)

  1. The vacuum friction paradox and related puzzles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnett, Stephen M.; Sonnleitner, Matthias

    2018-04-01

    The frequency of light emitted by a moving source is shifted by a factor proportional to its velocity. We find that this Doppler shift requires the existence of a paradoxical effect: that a moving atom radiating in otherwise empty space feels a net or average force acing against its direction motion and proportional in magnitude to is speed. Yet there is no preferred rest frame, either in relativity or in Newtonian mechanics, so how can there be a vacuum friction force?

  2. The Strategic Paradox of Social Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-18

    United States claimed to have met online.9 And in 2010, Facebook claimed over 500 million users, which would make the social networking service the...service culture, or occupational specialty. One drawback with social networks concerns the protection of individual privacy. Facebook , for...St ra te gy R es ea rc h Pr oj ec t THE STRATEGIC PARADOX OF SOCIAL NETWORKS BY COLONEL ROBERT COTE United States Marine Corps

  3. Measuring the systemic risk in the South African banking sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregory M. Foggitt

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: In the aftermath of the sub-prime crisis, systemic risk has become a greater priority for regulators, with the National Treasury (2011 stating that regulators should proactively monitor changes in systemic risk. Aim: The aim is to quantify systemic risk as the capital shortfall an institution is likely to experience, conditional to the entire financial sector being undercapitalised. Setting: We measure the systemic risk index (SRISK of the South African (SA banking sector between 2001 and 2013. Methods: Systemic risk is measured with the SRISK. Results: Although the results indicated only moderate systemic risk in the SA financial sector over this period, there were significant spikes in the levels of systemic risk during periods of financial turmoil in other countries. Especially the stock market crash in 2002 and the subprime crisis in 2008. Based on our results, the largest contributor to systemic risk during quiet periods was Investec, the bank in our sample which had the lowest market capitalisation. However, during periods of financial turmoil, the contributions of other larger banks increased markedly. Conclusion: The implication of these spikes is that systemic risk levels may also be highly dependent on external economic factors, in addition to internal banking characteristics. The results indicate that the economic fundamentals of SA itself seem to have little effect on the amount of systemic risk present in the financial sector. A more significant relationship seems to exist with the stability of the financial sectors in foreign countries. The implication therefore is that complying with individual banking regulations, such as Basel, and corporate governance regulations promoting ethical behaviour, such as King III, may not be adequate. It is therefore proposed that banks should always have sufficient capital reserves in order to mitigate the effects of a financial crisis in a foreign country. The use of worst

  4. Environmental asset management: Risk management systems

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Naudé, Brian

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available bnaude@csir.co.za Charl Petzer Council for Scientific and Industrial Research PO Box 395 Pretoria 0001 South Africa +2712 841 4292 CPetzer1@csir.co.za Copyright © 2017 by B Naudé, C Petzer. Published and used by INCOSE with permission.... Charl Petzer is registered professional engineer with 30 years of programme/project management as well as systems engineering experience in military and other environments. He has been the lead systems engineer, as well as programme manager on several...

  5. Scientific progress despite irreproducibility: A seeming paradox.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiffrin, Richard M; Börner, Katy; Stigler, Stephen M

    2018-03-13

    It appears paradoxical that science is producing outstanding new results and theories at a rapid rate at the same time that researchers are identifying serious problems in the practice of science that cause many reports to be irreproducible and invalid. Certainly, the practice of science needs to be improved, and scientists are now pursuing this goal. However, in this perspective, we argue that this seeming paradox is not new, has always been part of the way science works, and likely will remain so. We first introduce the paradox. We then review a wide range of challenges that appear to make scientific success difficult. Next, we describe the factors that make science work-in the past, present, and presumably also in the future. We then suggest that remedies for the present practice of science need to be applied selectively so as not to slow progress and illustrate with a few examples. We conclude with arguments that communication of science needs to emphasize not just problems but the enormous successes and benefits that science has brought and is now bringing to all elements of modern society.

  6. Disability reconsidered: the paradox of physical therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roush, Susan E; Sharby, Nancy

    2011-12-01

    The purposes of this perspective article are: (1) to explore models of disability from the perspective of the academic discipline of disability studies (DS), (2) to consider the paradox of improving functional capacities while valuing disability as diversity, (3) to identify how physical therapy's use of the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF) disablement model intersects with various disability models, and (4) to apply this broader understanding of disability to physical therapist practice, education, and research. The DS literature has been critical of rehabilitation professionals, particularly targeting the medical model of disability. In contrast, advocates for a social model of disability recognize disability as diversity. It is paradoxical for physical therapy to simultaneously work to ameliorate disability while celebrating it as diversity. The ICF biopsychosocial disablement model offers a mechanism to practice within this paradox and suggests that it is no longer sufficient to conceptualize disability as a purely individual matter that requires attention in isolation from the impact of the larger society.

  7. Identifying Quantum Structures in the Ellsberg Paradox

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aerts, Diederik; Sozzo, Sandro; Tapia, Jocelyn

    2014-10-01

    Empirical evidence has confirmed that quantum effects occur frequently also outside the microscopic domain, while quantum structures satisfactorily model various situations in several areas of science, including biological, cognitive and social processes. In this paper, we elaborate a quantum mechanical model which faithfully describes the Ellsberg paradox in economics, showing that the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics is capable to represent the ambiguity present in this kind of situations, because of the presence of contextuality. Then, we analyze the data collected in a concrete experiment we performed on the Ellsberg paradox and work out a complete representation of them in complex Hilbert space. We prove that the presence of quantum structure is genuine, that is, interference and superposition in a complex Hilbert space are really necessary to describe the conceptual situation presented by Ellsberg. Moreover, our approach sheds light on `ambiguity laden' decision processes in economics and decision theory, and allows to deal with different Ellsberg-type generalizations, e.g., the Machina paradox.

  8. Obesity and poverty paradox in developed countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Żukiewicz-Sobczak, Wioletta; Wróblewska, Paula; Zwoliński, Jacek; Chmielewska-Badora, Jolanta; Adamczuk, Piotr; Krasowska, Ewelina; Zagórski, Jerzy; Oniszczuk, Anna; Piątek, Jacek; Silny, Wojciech

    2014-01-01

    Obesity is a civilization disease and the proportion of people suffering from it continues to grow, especially in the developed countries. Number of obese people in Europe has increased threefold over the last 20 years. The paradox of obesity and poverty relationship is observed especially in the developed and developing countries. In developing countries, along with economic development and income growth, the number of people with overweight and obesity is increasing. This paradox has a relationship with both the easy availability and low cost of highly processed foods containing 'empty calories' and no nutritional value. To date, this paradox has been described in the United States and the United Kingdom, although many European countries are also experiencing high percentages of obese people. Among the reasons for the growing obesity in the population of poor people are: higher unemployment, lower education level, and irregular meals. Another cause of obesity is low physical activity, which among the poor is associated with a lack of money for sports equipment. Due to the large rate of deaths caused by diseases directly linked to obesity, the governments of many countries implement prevention programmes of overweight and obesity. These programmes are based primarily on educating the public about a healthy lifestyle based on healthy eating, daily physical activity and avoiding alcohol and cigarettes.

  9. Obesity and poverty paradox in developed countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wioletta Żukiewicz-Sobczak

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Obesity is a civilization disease and the proportion of people suffering from it continues to grow, especially in the developed countries. Number of obese people in Europe has increased threefold over the last 20 years. The paradox of obesity and poverty relationship is observed especially in the developed and developing countries. In developing countries, along with economic development and income growth, the number of people with overweight and obesity is increasing. This paradox has a relationship with both the easy availability and low cost of highly processed foods containing ‘empty calories’ and no nutritional value. To date, this paradox has been described in the United States and the United Kingdom, although many European countries are also experiencing high percentages of obese people. Among the reasons for the growing obesity in the population of poor people are: higher unemployment, lower education level, and irregular meals. Another cause of obesity is low physical activity, which among the poor is associated with a lack of money for sports equipment. Due to the large rate of deaths caused by diseases directly linked to obesity, the governments of many countries implement prevention programmes of overweight and obesity. These programmes are based primarily on educating the public about a healthy lifestyle based on healthy eating, daily physical activity and avoiding alcohol and cigarettes.

  10. Fermi's paradox: The last challenge for copernicanism?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ćirković M.M.

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available We review Fermi's paradox (or the 'Great Silence' problem, not only arguably the oldest and crucial problem for the Search for ExtraTerrestrial Intelligence (SETI, but also a conundrum of profound scientific, philosophical and cultural importance. By a simple analysis of observation selection effects, the correct resolution of Fermi's paradox is certain to tell us something about the future of humanity. Already more than three quarters of century old puzzle and a quarter of century since the last major review paper in the field by G. David Brin has generated many ingenious discussions and hypotheses. We analyze the often tacit methodological assumptions built in various answers to this puzzle and attempt a new classification of the numerous solutions proposed in an already huge literature on the subject. Finally, we consider the ramifications of various classes of hypotheses for the practical SETI projects. Somewhat paradoxically, it seems that the class of (neocatastrophic hypotheses gives, on the balance, the strongest justification to optimism regarding our current and near-future SETI efforts.

  11. Systemic risk with endogenous loss given default

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    IJtsma, Pieter; Spierdijk, Laura

    2017-01-01

    When many financial institutions fail simultaneously, the remaining institutions in the system are unlikely to have sufficient liquidity to acquire all failed institutions. As a result, some assets will have to be liquidated and sold to outsiders at firesale prices, giving rise to a potentially high

  12. Designing cellular manufacturing system under risk conditions ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper develops a mathematical modeling to design a cellular manufacturing system. In addition some of the total or portion of the demand of the part types can be subcontracted.. In order to designing the optimal CMS, we needs to detrmined a plan to produce and subcontract parts at a minimum cost and to mitigate the ...

  13. Study of Systemic Risk Involved in Mutual Funds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dash, Kishore C.; Dash, Monika

    Systemic risk, may be defined as the risk that contaminates to the whole system, consisting of many interacting agents that fail one after another. These agents, in an economic context, could be firms, banks, funds, or other financial institutions. Systemic risk is a macroscopic property of a system which emerges due to the nonlinear interaction of agents on a microscopic level. A stock market itself is a system in which there are many sub-systems, like Dowjones, Nifty, Sensex, Nasdaq, Nikkei and other market indices in global perspective. In Indian market, subsystems may be like Sensex, Nifty, BSE200, Bankex, smallcap index, midcap index, S&P CNX 500 and many others. Similarly there are many mutual funds, which have their own portfolio of different stocks, bonds etc. We have attempted to study the systemic risk involved in a fund as a macroscopic object with regard to its microscopic components as different stocks in its portfolio. It is observed that fund managers do manage to reduce the systemic risk just like we take precautions to control the spread of an epidemic.

  14. Paradox of enrichment: A fractional differential approach with memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rana, Sourav; Bhattacharya, Sabyasachi; Pal, Joydeep; N'Guérékata, Gaston M.; Chattopadhyay, Joydev

    2013-09-01

    The paradox of enrichment (PoE) proposed by Rosenzweig [M. Rosenzweig, The paradox of enrichment, Science 171 (1971) 385-387] is still a fundamental problem in ecology. Most of the solutions have been proposed at an individual species level of organization and solutions at community level are lacking. Knowledge of how learning and memory modify behavioral responses to species is a key factor in making a crucial link between species and community levels. PoE resolution via these two organizational levels can be interpreted as a microscopic- and macroscopic-level solution. Fractional derivatives provide an excellent tool for describing this memory and the hereditary properties of various materials and processes. The derivatives can be physically interpreted via two time scales that are considered simultaneously: the ideal, equably flowing homogeneous local time, and the cosmic (inhomogeneous) non-local time. Several mechanisms and theories have been proposed to resolve the PoE problem, but a universally accepted theory is still lacking because most studies have focused on local effects and ignored non-local effects, which capture memory. Here we formulate the fractional counterpart of the Rosenzweig model and analyze the stability behavior of a system. We conclude that there is a threshold for the memory effect parameter beyond which the Rosenzweig model is stable and may be used as a potential agent to resolve PoE from a new perspective via fractional differential equations.

  15. The obesity paradox in stroke

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Klaus Kaae; Olsen, Tom Skyhøj

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Although associated with excess mortality and morbidity, obesity is associated with lower mortality after stroke. The association between obesity and risk of recurrent stroke is unclear. AIMS: The study aims to investigate the association in stroke patients between body mass index......: underweight (body mass index obese (body mass index ≥ 30·0). RESULTS: Mean age 72·3 years, 48% women. Mean body mass index 23·0. Within follow-up, 7902 (26·9%) patients had died; 2437 (8·3%) were readmitted because...... of recurrent stroke. Mortality was significantly lower in overweight (hazard ratio 0·72; confidence interval 0·68–0·78) and obese (hazard ratio 0·80; confidence interval 0·73–0·88) patients while significantly higher in underweight patients (hazard ratio 1·66; confidence interval 1·49–1·84) compared...

  16. Comparative Risk Analysis for Metropolitan Solid Waste Management Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Ni-Bin; Wang, S. F.

    1996-01-01

    Conventional solid waste management planning usually focuses on economic optimization, in which the related environmental impacts or risks are rarely considered. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the methodology of how optimization concepts and techniques can be applied to structure and solve risk management problems such that the impacts of air pollution, leachate, traffic congestion, and noise increments can be regulated in the iong-term planning of metropolitan solid waste management systems. Management alternatives are sequentially evaluated by adding several environmental risk control constraints stepwise in an attempt to improve the management strategies and reduce the risk impacts in the long run. Statistics associated with those risk control mechanisms are presented as well. Siting, routing, and financial decision making in such solid waste management systems can also be achieved with respect to various resource limitations and disposal requirements.

  17. CRRIS: a computerized radiological risk-investigation system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baes, C.F. III; Miller, C.W.

    1981-01-01

    The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is responsible for regulating radioactive airborne effluents in the US. A comprehensive, integrated Computerized Radiological Risk Investigation System (CRRIS) is being developed to support EPA's radiation standards development. This modular system consists primarily of five computer codes and their supporting data bases for estimating environmental transport and radiation doses and risks. Health effects are estimated on the basis of a life-table methodology developed by EPA. CRRIS is designed to provide EPA with a reasonable and flexible way of assessing the risk to man associated with radionuclide releases to the atmosphere

  18. Risk-based rules for crane safety systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruud, Stian [Section for Control Systems, DNV Maritime, 1322 Hovik (Norway)], E-mail: Stian.Ruud@dnv.com; Mikkelsen, Age [Section for Lifting Appliances, DNV Maritime, 1322 Hovik (Norway)], E-mail: Age.Mikkelsen@dnv.com

    2008-09-15

    The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) has recommended a method called formal safety assessment (FSA) for future development of rules and regulations. The FSA method has been applied in a pilot research project for development of risk-based rules and functional requirements for systems and components for offshore crane systems. This paper reports some developments in the project. A method for estimating target reliability for the risk-control options (safety functions) by means of the cost/benefit decision criterion has been developed in the project and is presented in this paper. Finally, a structure for risk-based rules is proposed and presented.

  19. Risk-based rules for crane safety systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruud, Stian; Mikkelsen, Age

    2008-01-01

    The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) has recommended a method called formal safety assessment (FSA) for future development of rules and regulations. The FSA method has been applied in a pilot research project for development of risk-based rules and functional requirements for systems and components for offshore crane systems. This paper reports some developments in the project. A method for estimating target reliability for the risk-control options (safety functions) by means of the cost/benefit decision criterion has been developed in the project and is presented in this paper. Finally, a structure for risk-based rules is proposed and presented

  20. Risk assessment to determine the advisability of seismic trip systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cummings, G.E.; Wells, J.E.

    1977-01-01

    Seismic trip (scram) systems have been used for many years on certain research, test, and production reactors, but not on commercial power reactors. An assessment is made of the risks associated with the presence and absence of such trip systems on power reactors. An attempt was made to go beyond the reactor per se and to consider the risks to society as a whole; for example, the advantages of tripping to avoid an earthquake-caused accident were weighed against the disadvantages associated with interrupting electric power in a time when it would be needed for emergency services. The comparative risk assessment was performed by means of fault tree analysis

  1. The obesity paradox in patients with peripheral arterial disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galal, Wael; van Gestel, Yvette R B M; Hoeks, Sanne E; Sin, Don D; Winkel, Tamara A; Bax, Jeroen J; Verhagen, Hence; Awara, Adel M M; Klein, Jan; van Domburg, Ron T; Poldermans, Don

    2008-11-01

    Cardiac events are the predominant cause of late mortality in patients with peripheral arterial disease (PAD). In these patients, mortality decreases with increasing body mass index (BMI). COPD is identified as a cardiac risk factor, which preferentially affects underweight individuals. Whether or not COPD explains the obesity paradox in PAD patients is unknown. We studied 2,392 patients who underwent major vascular surgery at one teaching institution. Patients were classified according to COPD status and BMIs (ie, underweight, normal, overweight, and obese), and the relationship between these variables and all-cause mortality was determined using a Cox regression analysis. The median follow-up period was 4.37 years (interquartile range, 1.98 to 8.47 years). The overall mortality rates among underweight, normal, overweight, and obese patients were 54%, 50%, 40%, and 31%, respectively (p < 0.001). The distribution of COPD severity classes showed an increased prevalence of moderate-to-severe COPD in underweight patients. In the entire population, BMI (continuous) was associated with increased mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 0.96; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.94 to 0.98). In addition, patients who were classified as being underweight were at increased risk for mortality (HR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.00 to 2.01). However, after adjusting for COPD severity the relationship was no longer significant (HR, 1.29; 95% CI, 0.91 to 1.93). The excess mortality among underweight patients was largely explained by the overrepresentation of individuals with moderate-to-severe COPD. COPD may in part explain the "obesity paradox" in the PAD population.

  2. Human System Risk Management - Tools of our Trade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ott, C. Mark

    2009-01-01

    The risk of infectious disease to select individuals has historically been difficult to predict in either spaceflight or on Earth with health care efforts relying on broad-based prevention and post-infection treatment. Over the past 10 years, quantitative microbial risk assessment evaluations have evolved to formalize the assessment process and quantify the risk. This process of hazard identification, exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization has been applied by the water and food safety industries to address the public health impacts associated with the occurrence of and human exposure to pathogens in water and food for the development of preventive strategies for microbial disease. NASA is currently investigating the feasibility of using these techniques to better understand the risks to astronauts and refine their microbiological requirements. To assess these techniques, NASA began an evaluation of the potable water system on the International Space Station to determine how the microbial risk from water consumption during flight differed from terrestrial sources, such as municipal water systems. The ultimate goal of this work is to optimize microbial requirements which would minimize unnecessary cargo and use of crew time, while still protecting the health of the crew. Successful demonstration of this risk assessment framework with the water system holds the potential to maximize the use of available resources during spaceflight missions and facilitate investigations into the evaluation of other routes of infection, such as through the spaceflight foods system.

  3. The Nature and Assessment of Systemic Risk in Terms of Liquidity of the Banking System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lavreniuk Vladyslav V.

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article is to determine the nature of systemic risk as a threat to the financial stability of the banking system and develop analytical tools to assess its impact on the banking system in terms of its liquidity. To solve the tasks assigned, there used general scientific and specific methods, such as: logical and dialectical method, mathematical and graphical one. Based on the generalization, analysis and comparison of different interpretations, there clarified the concept of «systemic risk» as a risk generated by financial institutions or individual sectors through the implementation of the mechanism of risk transmission, achieving significant scale of distribution and adversely affecting the stability of the financial system and the real sector of economy. There identified key aspects of systemic risk: a systemic risk is not a sum of all individual risks of financial institutions; b spreads through the channels of interconnectedness between financial institutions; c is a result of accumulated structural imbalances; d affects the stability of the financial/banking system, public confidence and the real sector of economy. Analytical tools for estimation of the bank’s contribution to the systemic liquidity risk on the basis of which it is determined that the first place in terms of the effect on the aggregate systemic risk of liquidity of the Ukrainian banking system is occupied by banks of Group I, the second place — by Privatbank, the third, fourth, fifth places — by banks in Group II — Oschadbank, Ukreximbank. It is found that it is systemically important state-owned banks that have a significant impact on systemic liquidity risk. It is determined that the probability of default of a leading systemically important bank could result in considerable cumulative losses for the entire banking system and real economy. The prospects of further research are the development of tools for systemic risk assessment with respect to

  4. Paradoxical response to dexamethasone and spontaneous hypocortisolism in Cushing's disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lila, Anurag R; Sarathi, Vijaya; Bandgar, Tushar R; Shah, Nalini S

    2013-01-01

    Paradoxical response to dexamethasone and spontaneous development of hypocortisolism are rare features of Cushing's disease. We report a 13-year-old boy with Cushing's disease owing to a pituitary macroadenoma. On initial evaluation, he had partial suppression of serum cortisol by dexamethasone. He developed transient hypocortisolism after first adenomectomy, but the disease recurred after 1 year. Repeat evaluation showed recurrent hypercortisolism and paradoxical response to dexamethasone. He underwent second surgery and, postoperatively, hypercostisolism persisted even after 2 years of surgery. Repeat evaluations after 8 years of second surgery revealed persistent hypocortisolism despite residual tumour of same size and similar plasma adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH) levels. We have also shown that the paradoxical increase in serum cortisol was preceded by a paradoxical increase in ACTH. The paradoxical response persisted despite hypocortisolism. This patient with Cushing's disease had two very rare features: paradoxical response to dexamethasone and spontaneous development of hypocortisolism. PMID:23365169

  5. Intelligent Decision Support System for Bank Loans Risk Classification

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨保安; 马云飞; 俞莲

    2001-01-01

    Intelligent Decision Support System (IISS) for Bank Loans Risk Classification (BLRC), based on the way of integration Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Expert System (ES), is proposed. According to the feature of BLRC, the key financial and non-financial factors are analyzed. Meanwhile, ES and Model Base (MB) which contain ANN are designed . The general framework,interaction and integration of the system are given. In addition, how the system realizes BLRC is elucidated in detail.

  6. Managing Programmatic Risk for Complex Space System Developments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panetta, Peter V.; Hastings, Daniel; Brumfield, Mark (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Risk management strategies have become a recent important research topic to many aerospace organizations as they prepare to develop the revolutionary complex space systems of the future. Future multi-disciplinary complex space systems will make it absolutely essential for organizations to practice a rigorous, comprehensive risk management process, emphasizing thorough systems engineering principles to succeed. Project managers must possess strong leadership skills to direct high quality, cross-disciplinary teams for successfully developing revolutionary space systems that are ever increasing in complexity. Proactive efforts to reduce or eliminate risk throughout a project's lifecycle ideally must be practiced by all technical members in the organization. This paper discusses some of the risk management perspectives that were collected from senior managers and project managers of aerospace and aeronautical organizations by the use of interviews and surveys. Some of the programmatic risks which drive the success or failure of projects are revealed. Key findings lead to a number of insights for organizations to consider for proactively approaching the risks which face current and future complex space systems projects.

  7. System risk evolution analysis and risk critical event identification based on event sequence diagram

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luo, Pengcheng; Hu, Yang

    2013-01-01

    During system operation, the environmental, operational and usage conditions are time-varying, which causes the fluctuations of the system state variables (SSVs). These fluctuations change the accidents’ probabilities and then result in the system risk evolution (SRE). This inherent relation makes it feasible to realize risk control by monitoring the SSVs in real time, herein, the quantitative analysis of SRE is essential. Besides, some events in the process of SRE are critical to system risk, because they act like the “demarcative points” of safety and accident, and this characteristic makes each of them a key point of risk control. Therefore, analysis of SRE and identification of risk critical events (RCEs) are remarkably meaningful to ensure the system to operate safely. In this context, an event sequence diagram (ESD) based method of SRE analysis and the related Monte Carlo solution are presented; RCE and risk sensitive variable (RSV) are defined, and the corresponding identification methods are also proposed. Finally, the proposed approaches are exemplified with an accident scenario of an aircraft getting into the icing region

  8. The Oxygen Paradox, the French Paradox, and age-related diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Joanna M S; Cillard, Josiane; Friguet, Bertrand; Cadenas, Enrique; Cadet, Jean; Cayce, Rachael; Fishmann, Andrew; Liao, David; Bulteau, Anne-Laure; Derbré, Frédéric; Rébillard, Amélie; Burstein, Steven; Hirsch, Etienne; Kloner, Robert A; Jakowec, Michael; Petzinger, Giselle; Sauce, Delphine; Sennlaub, Florian; Limon, Isabelle; Ursini, Fulvio; Maiorino, Matilde; Economides, Christina; Pike, Christian J; Cohen, Pinchas; Salvayre, Anne Negre; Halliday, Matthew R; Lundquist, Adam J; Jakowec, Nicolaus A; Mechta-Grigoriou, Fatima; Mericskay, Mathias; Mariani, Jean; Li, Zhenlin; Huang, David; Grant, Ellsworth; Forman, Henry J; Finch, Caleb E; Sun, Patrick Y; Pomatto, Laura C D; Agbulut, Onnik; Warburton, David; Neri, Christian; Rouis, Mustapha; Cillard, Pierre; Capeau, Jacqueline; Rosenbaum, Jean; Davies, Kelvin J A

    2017-12-01

    A paradox is a seemingly absurd or impossible concept, proposition, or theory that is often difficult to understand or explain, sometimes apparently self-contradictory, and yet ultimately correct or true. How is it possible, for example, that oxygen "a toxic environmental poison" could be also indispensable for life (Beckman and Ames Physiol Rev 78(2):547-81, 1998; Stadtman and Berlett Chem Res Toxicol 10(5):485-94, 1997)?: the so-called Oxygen Paradox (Davies and Ursini 1995; Davies Biochem Soc Symp 61:1-31, 1995). How can French people apparently disregard the rule that high dietary intakes of cholesterol and saturated fats (e.g., cheese and paté) will result in an early death from cardiovascular diseases (Renaud and de Lorgeril Lancet 339(8808):1523-6, 1992; Catalgol et al. Front Pharmacol 3:141, 2012; Eisenberg et al. Nat Med 22(12):1428-1438, 2016)?: the so-called, French Paradox. Doubtless, the truth is not a duality and epistemological bias probably generates apparently self-contradictory conclusions. Perhaps nowhere in biology are there so many apparently contradictory views, and even experimental results, affecting human physiology and pathology as in the fields of free radicals and oxidative stress, antioxidants, foods and drinks, and dietary recommendations; this is particularly true when issues such as disease-susceptibility or avoidance, "healthspan," "lifespan," and ageing are involved. Consider, for example, the apparently paradoxical observation that treatment with low doses of a substance that is toxic at high concentrations may actually induce transient adaptations that protect against a subsequent exposure to the same (or similar) toxin. This particular paradox is now mechanistically explained as "Adaptive Homeostasis" (Davies Mol Asp Med 49:1-7, 2016; Pomatto et al. 2017a; Lomeli et al. Clin Sci (Lond) 131(21):2573-2599, 2017; Pomatto and Davies 2017); the non-damaging process by which an apparent toxicant can activate biological signal

  9. Temperature relaxation and the Kapitza boundary resistance paradox

    OpenAIRE

    Brink, Alec Maassen van den; Dekker, H.

    1994-01-01

    The calculation of the Kapitza boundary resistance between dissimilar harmonic solids has since long (Little [Can. J. Phys. 37, 334 (1959)]) suffered from a paradox: this resistance erroneously tends to a finite value in the limit of identical solids. We resolve this paradox by calculating temperature differences in the final heat-transporting state, rather than with respect to the initial state of local equilibrium. For a one-dimensional model we thus derive an exact, paradox-free formula fo...

  10. A Dichotomic Analysis of the Surprise Examination Paradox

    OpenAIRE

    Franceschi, Paul

    2002-01-01

    This paper presents a dichotomic analysis of the surprise examination paradox. In section 1, I analyse the surprise notion in detail. I introduce then in section 2, the distinction between a monist and dichotomic analysis of the paradox. I also present there a dichotomy leading to distinguish two basically and structurally different versions of the paradox, respectively based on a conjoint and a disjoint definition of the surprise. In section 3, I describe the solution to SEP corresponding to...

  11. The Surprise Examination Paradox and the Second Incompleteness Theorem

    OpenAIRE

    Kritchman, Shira; Raz, Ran

    2010-01-01

    We give a new proof for Godel's second incompleteness theorem, based on Kolmogorov complexity, Chaitin's incompleteness theorem, and an argument that resembles the surprise examination paradox. We then go the other way around and suggest that the second incompleteness theorem gives a possible resolution of the surprise examination paradox. Roughly speaking, we argue that the flaw in the derivation of the paradox is that it contains a hidden assumption that one can prove the consistency of the...

  12. Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Vesely, W.E.; Lofgren, E.V.

    1989-01-01

    This paper presents an evaluation of the configuration risks associated with the operation of a nuclear power plant and the approaches to control these risks using risk-based configuration control considerations. In that context, the actual and maximum potential configuration risks at a plant are analyzed and the alternative types criteria for a risk-based configuration control systems are described. The risk-based configuration calculations which are studied here focus on the core-melt frequency impacts from given plant configurations. By calculating the core-melt frequency for given configurations, the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases can be identified and controlled. The duration time in which the configuration can exist can then be limited or the core-melt frequency level associated with the configuration can be reduced by various actions. Furthermore, maintenances and tests can be scheduled to avoid the configurations which cause large core-melt frequency increases. Present technical specifications do not control many of these configurations which can cause large core-melt frequency increases but instead focus on many risk-unimportant allowed outage times. Hence, risk-based configuration management can be effectively used to reduce core-melt frequency associated risks at a plant and at the same time can provide flexibility in plant operation. The alternative strategies for controlling the core-melt frequency and other risk contributions include: (1) controlling the increased risk level which is associated with the configuration; (2) controlling the individual configuration risk which is associated with a given duration of a configuration; (3) controlling the time period configuration risk from configurations which occur in a time period

  13. The Assessment of Systemic Risk in the Kenyan Banking Sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Fan

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The present paper aims to assess the systemic risk of the Kenyan banking system. We propose a theoretical framework to reveal the time evolution of the systemic risk using sequences of financial data and use the framework to assess the systemic risk of the Kenyan banking system that is regarded as the largest in the East and Central African region. Firstly, we estimate the bilateral exposures matrix using aggregate financial data on loans and deposits from annual reports and analyze the interconnectedness in the market using network centrality measures. Next, we extend the Eisenberg–Noe method to a multiperiod setting to the systemic risk of the Kenyan banking system, in which the multiperiod includes the dynamic evolutions of the Kenyan banking system of every bank and the structure of the interbank network system. We apply this framework to assess dynamically the systemic risk of the Kenyan banking system between 2009 and 2015. The main findings are the following. The theoretical network analysis using network centrality measures showed several banks displaying characteristics of systematically important banks (SIBs. The theoretical default analysis showed that a bank suffering a basic default will trigger a contagious default that caused several other banks in the sector to go bankrupt. Further stress test proved that the KCB bank theoretically caused a few contagious defaults due to an unusually high interconnectedness. This methodology can contribute by being part of monitoring system of the Central Bank of Kenya (regulatory body as well as the implementation of policies (such as bank-internal stress tests that assist in preventing default contagion.

  14. Risk analysis of radioactive waste management systems in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wingender, H.J.

    1978-01-01

    Within the scope of a system study, ''Radioactive wastes in the Federal Republic of Germany,'' performed from 1974 through 1976, the questions of risk assessment were investigated. A risk analysis of a high-level waste (HLW) management system was performed. The results of the HLW tank storage are that the risk expectation value is 700 nJ/kg x RBE (7 x 10 -5 rem) per year for atmospheric release. The discussion of the main contributing accidents shows the possibility of reducing the risk by a technical means. A qualitative comparison on the release basis with the results of the WASH-1400 report shows significant differences that can be explained by the different methodologies applied. The risk analysis activities have led to a comprehensive risk assessment project, which was recently started. The projected includes research and development tasks concerning nuclide migration and transport to the ecosphere, nuclide mobilization by various mechanisms, methodology problems, data collection, computer code development, as well as risk analyses of waste management facilities. It is intended to round off the project with risk analyses of spent fuel element transport, storage, and reprocessing

  15. Study of a risk-based piping inspection guideline system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tien, Shiaw-Wen; Hwang, Wen-Tsung; Tsai, Chih-Hung

    2007-02-01

    A risk-based inspection system and a piping inspection guideline model were developed in this study. The research procedure consists of two parts--the building of a risk-based inspection model for piping and the construction of a risk-based piping inspection guideline model. Field visits at the plant were conducted to develop the risk-based inspection and strategic analysis system. A knowledge-based model had been built in accordance with international standards and local government regulations, and the rational unified process was applied for reducing the discrepancy in the development of the models. The models had been designed to analyze damage factors, damage models, and potential damage positions of piping in the petrochemical plants. The purpose of this study was to provide inspection-related personnel with the optimal planning tools for piping inspections, hence, to enable effective predictions of potential piping risks and to enhance the better degree of safety in plant operations that the petrochemical industries can be expected to achieve. A risk analysis was conducted on the piping system of a petrochemical plant. The outcome indicated that most of the risks resulted from a small number of pipelines.

  16. A surety engineering framework to reduce cognitive systems risks.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caudell, Thomas P. (University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM); Peercy, David Eugene; Caldera, Eva O. (University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM); Shaneyfelt, Wendy L.

    2008-12-01

    Cognitive science research investigates the advancement of human cognition and neuroscience capabilities. Addressing risks associated with these advancements can counter potential program failures, legal and ethical issues, constraints to scientific research, and product vulnerabilities. Survey results, focus group discussions, cognitive science experts, and surety researchers concur technical risks exist that could impact cognitive science research in areas such as medicine, privacy, human enhancement, law and policy, military applications, and national security (SAND2006-6895). This SAND report documents a surety engineering framework and a process for identifying cognitive system technical, ethical, legal and societal risks and applying appropriate surety methods to reduce such risks. The framework consists of several models: Specification, Design, Evaluation, Risk, and Maturity. Two detailed case studies are included to illustrate the use of the process and framework. Several Appendices provide detailed information on existing cognitive system architectures; ethical, legal, and societal risk research; surety methods and technologies; and educing information research with a case study vignette. The process and framework provide a model for how cognitive systems research and full-scale product development can apply surety engineering to reduce perceived and actual risks.

  17. Comparative risk perception: how the public perceives the risks and benefits of energy systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomas, K [Open Univ., Milton Keynes (UK)

    1981-04-30

    The view of risk perception adopted in this paper focuses on how individuals define, and hence feel about, the outcomes of a risk issue. Perception of risk is seen as encompassing a variety of attributes of a risk issue including wider beliefs that permit a risk benefit trade-off. A survey of beliefs and attitudes of the general public toward the use of various energy systems (coal, oil, hydro, solar and nuclear energy) was carried out in Austria at a time of increasing concern with energy strategies and the controversy surrounding Austria's first nuclear energy plant. The results are analysed. In general, energy systems were found to be associated with only environmental risk; however, nuclear energy was an exception in that the public, whether in favour of nuclear energy or against, believed that it is also associated with psychological and physical risk. It was also found that the policy makers underestimated the public's negative feelings about the psychological risk dimension and their belief in its association with nuclear energy.

  18. Comparative risk perception: how the public perceives the risks and benefits of energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, K.

    1981-01-01

    The view of risk perception adopted in this paper focuses on how individuals define, and hence feel about, the outcomes of a risk issue. Perception of risk is seen as encompassing a variety of attributes of a risk issue including wider beliefs that permit a risk benefit trade-off. A survey of beliefs and attitudes of the general public toward the use of various energy systems (coal, oil, hydro, solar and nuclear energy) was carried out in Austria at a time of increasing concern with energy strategies and the controversy surrounding Austria's first nuclear energy plant. The results are analysed. In general, energy systems were found to be associated with only environmental risk; however, nuclear energy was an exception in that the public, whether in favour of nuclear energy or against, believed that it is also associated with psychological and physical risk. It was also found that the policy makers underestimated the public's negative feelings about the psychological risk dimension and their belief in its association with nuclear energy. (author)

  19. Systemic risk in dynamical networks with stochastic failure criterion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Podobnik, B.; Horvatic, D.; Bertella, M. A.; Feng, L.; Huang, X.; Li, B.

    2014-06-01

    Complex non-linear interactions between banks and assets we model by two time-dependent Erdős-Renyi network models where each node, representing a bank, can invest either to a single asset (model I) or multiple assets (model II). We use a dynamical network approach to evaluate the collective financial failure —systemic risk— quantified by the fraction of active nodes. The systemic risk can be calculated over any future time period, divided into sub-periods, where within each sub-period banks may contiguously fail due to links to either i) assets or ii) other banks, controlled by two parameters, probability of internal failure p and threshold Th (“solvency” parameter). The systemic risk decreases with the average network degree faster when all assets are equally distributed across banks than if assets are randomly distributed. The more inactive banks each bank can sustain (smaller Th), the smaller the systemic risk —for some Th values in I we report a discontinuity in systemic risk. When contiguous spreading becomes stochastic ii) controlled by probability p2 —a condition for the bank to be solvent (active) is stochastic— the systemic risk decreases with decreasing p2. We analyse the asset allocation for the U.S. banks.

  20. Paradox in a non-linear capacitated transportation problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dahiya Kalpana

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses a paradox in fixed charge capacitated transportation problem where the objective function is the sum of two linear fractional functions consisting of variables costs and fixed charges respectively. A paradox arises when the transportation problem admits of an objective function value which is lower than the optimal objective function value, by transporting larger quantities of goods over the same route. A sufficient condition for the existence of a paradox is established. Paradoxical range of flow is obtained for any given flow in which the corresponding objective function value is less than the optimum value of the given transportation problem. Numerical illustration is included in support of theory.

  1. A Dual System Model of Preferences under Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukherjee, Kanchan

    2010-01-01

    This article presents a dual system model (DSM) of decision making under risk and uncertainty according to which the value of a gamble is a combination of the values assigned to it independently by the affective and deliberative systems. On the basis of research on dual process theories and empirical research in Hsee and Rottenstreich (2004) and…

  2. Operational Risk Management System for SMS and FRMS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stewart, S.; Koornneef, F.; Akselsson, R.

    2009-01-01

    Chapter 3: Operational Risk Management System for SMS and FRMS The European Commission HILAS project (Human Integration into the Lifecycle of Aviation Systems - a project supported by the European Commission’s 6th Framework between 2005-2009) was focused on using human factors knowledge and

  3. PERIODONTAL INFECTIONS AS A RISK FACTOR FOR VARIOUS SYSTEMIC DISEASES

    OpenAIRE

    Solanki, Gaurav; Solanki, Renu

    2012-01-01

    A healthy periodontium is needed for the general well being of an individual. However, periodontal diseases are common and periodontal infections are increasingly associated with systemic diseases. The literature is focused on the association between periodontal infections and systemic diseases. The individuals with periodontal disease may be at higher risk for adverse medical outcomes including cardiovascular diseases, respiratory infections, adverse pregnancy outcomes, rheumatoid arthritis ...

  4. The risk of upcoding in casemix systems : A comparative study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steinbusch, P.; Oostenbrink, J.; Schaepkens, F.F.J.M.; Zuurbier, J.J.

    2007-01-01

    With the introduction of a diagnosis related group (DRG) classification system in the Netherlands in 2005 it has become relevant to investigate the risk of upcoding. The problem of upcoding in the US casemix system is substantial. In 2004, the US Centres for Medicare and Medicaid estimated that the

  5. Braess's paradox in oscillator networks, desynchronization and power outage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Witthaut, Dirk; Timme, Marc

    2012-01-01

    Robust synchronization is essential to ensure the stable operation of many complex networked systems such as electric power grids. Increasing energy demands and more strongly distributing power sources raise the question of where to add new connection lines to the already existing grid. Here we study how the addition of individual links impacts the emergence of synchrony in oscillator networks that model power grids on coarse scales. We reveal that adding new links may not only promote but also destroy synchrony and link this counter-intuitive phenomenon to Braess's paradox known for traffic networks. We analytically uncover its underlying mechanism in an elementary grid example, trace its origin to geometric frustration in phase oscillators, and show that it generically occurs across a wide range of systems. As an important consequence, upgrading the grid requires particular care when adding new connections because some may destabilize the synchronization of the grid—and thus induce power outages. (paper)

  6. Bayesian paradox in homeland security and homeland defense

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jannson, Tomasz; Forrester, Thomas; Wang, Wenjian

    2011-06-01

    In this paper we discuss a rather surprising result of Bayesian inference analysis: performance of a broad variety of sensors depends not only on a sensor system itself, but also on CONOPS parameters in such a way that even an excellent sensor system can perform poorly if absolute probabilities of a threat (target) are lower than a false alarm probability. This result, which we call Bayesian paradox, holds not only for binary sensors as discussed in the lead author's previous papers, but also for a more general class of multi-target sensors, discussed also in this paper. Examples include: ATR (automatic target recognition), luggage X-ray inspection for explosives, medical diagnostics, car engine diagnostics, judicial decisions, and many other issues.

  7. An Interoperable System toward Cardiac Risk Stratification from ECG Monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Soguero-Ruiz

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Many indices have been proposed for cardiovascular risk stratification from electrocardiogram signal processing, still with limited use in clinical practice. We created a system integrating the clinical definition of cardiac risk subdomains from ECGs and the use of diverse signal processing techniques. Three subdomains were defined from the joint analysis of the technical and clinical viewpoints. One subdomain was devoted to demographic and clinical data. The other two subdomains were intended to obtain widely defined risk indices from ECG monitoring: a simple-domain (heart rate turbulence (HRT, and a complex-domain (heart rate variability (HRV. Data provided by the three subdomains allowed for the generation of alerts with different intensity and nature, as well as for the grouping and scrutinization of patients according to the established processing and risk-thresholding criteria. The implemented system was tested by connecting data from real-world in-hospital electronic health records and ECG monitoring by considering standards for syntactic (HL7 messages and semantic interoperability (archetypes based on CEN/ISO EN13606 and SNOMED-CT. The system was able to provide risk indices and to generate alerts in the health records to support decision-making. Overall, the system allows for the agile interaction of research and clinical practice in the Holter-ECG-based cardiac risk domain.

  8. An Interoperable System toward Cardiac Risk Stratification from ECG Monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mora-Jiménez, Inmaculada; Ramos-López, Javier; Quintanilla Fernández, Teresa; García-García, Antonio; Díez-Mazuela, Daniel; García-Alberola, Arcadi

    2018-01-01

    Many indices have been proposed for cardiovascular risk stratification from electrocardiogram signal processing, still with limited use in clinical practice. We created a system integrating the clinical definition of cardiac risk subdomains from ECGs and the use of diverse signal processing techniques. Three subdomains were defined from the joint analysis of the technical and clinical viewpoints. One subdomain was devoted to demographic and clinical data. The other two subdomains were intended to obtain widely defined risk indices from ECG monitoring: a simple-domain (heart rate turbulence (HRT)), and a complex-domain (heart rate variability (HRV)). Data provided by the three subdomains allowed for the generation of alerts with different intensity and nature, as well as for the grouping and scrutinization of patients according to the established processing and risk-thresholding criteria. The implemented system was tested by connecting data from real-world in-hospital electronic health records and ECG monitoring by considering standards for syntactic (HL7 messages) and semantic interoperability (archetypes based on CEN/ISO EN13606 and SNOMED-CT). The system was able to provide risk indices and to generate alerts in the health records to support decision-making. Overall, the system allows for the agile interaction of research and clinical practice in the Holter-ECG-based cardiac risk domain. PMID:29494497

  9. Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Lofgren, E.V.; Vesely, W.E.

    1990-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of risks associated with component outage configurations during power operation of a nuclear power plant and discusses approaches and strategies for developing a risk-based configuration control system. A configuration, as used here, is a set of component states. The objective of risk-based configuration control is to detect and control plant configurations using a risk-perspective. The configuration contributions to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability are studied for two plants. Large core-melt frequency can be caused by configurations and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the actual core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. Effective strategies and criteria for controlling configuration risks are presented. Such control strategies take into consideration the risks associated with configurations, the nature and characteristics of the configuration risks, and also the practical considerations such as adequate repair times and/or options to transfer to low risk configurations. Alternative types of criteria are discussed that are not overly restrictive to result in unnecessary plant shutdown, but rather motivates effective test and maintenance practices that control risk-significant configurations to allow continued operation with an adequate margin to meet challenges to safety

  10. Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Vesely, W.E.; Kim, I.S.; Lofgren, E.V.

    1989-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of risks associated with component outage configurations during power operation of a nuclear power plant and discusses approaches and strategies for developing a risk-based configuration control system. A configuration, as used here, is a set of component states. The objective of risk-based configuration control is to detect and control plant configurations using a risk-perspective. The configuration contributions to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability are studied for two plants. Large core-melt frequency can be caused by configurations and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the actual core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. Effective strategies and criteria for controlling configuration risks are presented. Such control strategies take into consideration the risks associated with configurations, the nature and characteristics of the configuration risks, and also the practical considerations such as adequate repair times and/or options to transfer to low risk configurations. Alternative types of criteria are discussed that are not overly restrictive to result in unnecessary plant shutdown, but rather motivates effective tests and maintenance practices that control; risk-significant configurations to allow continued operation with an adequate margin to meet challenges to safety. 3 refs., 7 figs., 2 tabs

  11. The LGB Mormon Paradox: Mental, Physical, and Self-Rated Health Among Mormon and Non-Mormon LGB Individuals in the Utah Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cranney, Stephen

    2017-01-01

    Much of the literature on mental and physical health among religious LGB individuals has relied on small-N convenience samples. This study takes advantage of a unique, large-N, population-based dataset to test the relationship between religious identity, religious activity, and health, with a specific emphasis on Utah Mormons. In a surprising finding, Mormon LGBs report better mental health than non-Mormon LGBs, while their self-rated and physical health is not significantly different. However, there is some evidence that Mormon LGBs derive fewer health benefits from church attendance than their non-LGB Mormon counterparts. These results may nuance the conventional wisdom regarding the health dynamics of LGB individuals who identify with a conservative, heteronormative religious tradition, and plausible explanations are discussed.

  12. Liquidity Risk and its Management in Lithuanian Banking System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erika Bareikaitė

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Banks are the main part of financial sector in each economy and strength of banking system becomes vital for ensuringfavourable economic stability and growth. Recent failure of two commercial banks in Lithuania showed that managershaven’t evaluated liquidity risk or haven’t dealt with it properly. The tasks of the paper are to investigate Lithuanian banksposition towards liquidity risk, analyse what kind of management tools banks use for ensuring favourable position towardsliquidity and to explore the liquidity influence to profitability in Lithuanian banking sector. The article examines liquidity andits management processes in Lithuanian banking sector. Description of liquidity importance is presented. Liquidity risk and itsmeasurement as well as the ways of managing the above mentioned risk is analysed in the article. In order to analyse the relationshipbetween liquidity risk and profitability of banks, analysis of scientific literature, research synthesis and generalizationshave been made.

  13. Environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xin; Ning, Ping; Tang, Xiaolong; Yi, Honghong; Li, Kai; Zhou, Lianbi; Xu, Xianmang

    2013-01-01

    This paper may be of particular interest to the readers as it provides a new environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams. In this paper, we studied the phosphogypsum tailing dams which include characteristics of the pollution source, environmental risk characteristics and evaluation requirements to identify the applicable environmental risk assessment methods. Two analytical methods, that is, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy logic, were used to handle the complexity of the environmental and nonquantitative data. Using our assessment method, different risk factors can be ranked according to their contributions to the environmental risk, thereby allowing the calculation of their relative priorities during decision making. Thus, environmental decision-makers can use this approach to develop alternative management strategies for proposed, ongoing, and completed PG tailing dams.

  14. RiskChanges Spatial Decision Support system for the analysis of changing multi-hazard risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Westen, Cees; Zhang, Kaixi; Bakker, Wim; Andrejchenko, Vera; Berlin, Julian; Olyazadeh, Roya; Cristal, Irina

    2015-04-01

    Within the framework of the EU FP7 Marie Curie Project CHANGES and the EU FP7 Copernicus project INCREO a spatial decision support system was developed with the aim to analyse the effect of risk reduction planning alternatives on reducing the risk now and in the future, and support decision makers in selecting the best alternatives. Central to the SDSS are the stakeholders. The envisaged users of the system are organizations involved in planning of risk reduction measures, and that have staff capable of visualizing and analyzing spatial data at a municipal scale. The SDSS should be able to function in different countries with different legal frameworks and with organizations with different mandates. These could be subdivided into Civil protection organization with the mandate to design disaster response plans, Expert organizations with the mandate to design structural risk reduction measures (e.g. dams, dikes, check-dams etc), and planning organizations with the mandate to make land development plans. The SDSS can be used in different ways: analyzing the current level of risk, analyzing the best alternatives for risk reduction, the evaluation of the consequences of possible future scenarios to the risk levels, and the evaluation how different risk reduction alternatives will lead to risk reduction under different future scenarios. The SDSS is developed based on open source software and following open standards, for code as well as for data formats and service interfaces. Code development was based upon open source software as well. The architecture of the system is modular. The various parts of the system are loosely coupled, extensible, using standards for interoperability, flexible and web-based. The Spatial Decision Support System is composed of a number of integrated components. The Risk Assessment component allows to carry out spatial risk analysis, with different degrees of complexity, ranging from simple exposure (overlay of hazard and assets maps) to

  15. SME's Implementing a Quality Management System- Risks and Opportunities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luise ZEININGER

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Part of our daily lives, risk ceased to be just something that managers are desperate to alleviate if not eliminate. It is now rightfully considered a path to explore new opportunities. The last version of the ISO 9001, the 2015 edition, is asking from organization implementing it to determine the risk and opportunities associated with their main processes, the impact over relevant third parties and the context, both internal and external. With this duality as starting point, we have investigated among SME's implementing a quality management system what would they consider to be the risk and opportunities associated to this action. Our paper presents hereinafter the partial results of a wider study on Romanian SME's management, especially the findings related to what managers consider as risk or opportunity when implementing a quality management system.

  16. Support mechanisms and risk: Implications on the Nordic electricity system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kitzing, Lena; Ravn, Hans

    2013-01-01

    a stochastic analysis for the Nordic electricity system by conducting simulations with the energy system model Balmorel and by applying the mean-standard deviation approach of modern portfolio theory to quantify risk implications of policy instruments for an exemplary offshore wind park. The analysis reveals......Investments in renewable energy projects, such as offshore wind parks, are very much dependent on financial support. The type of policy instrument chosen for such support determines investors' exposure to market risk, and thus influences which rate of return they expect to achieve. We make...... that the two support policy schemes Feed-in Tariffs and Feed-in Premiums provide different risk-return relationships. In the investigated case, a Feed-in Premium scheme would require a 13% higher support level, because of a 6% higher exposure of investors to market risk. Our findings can help when designing...

  17. The high-risk HPV infection and urinary system tumor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Wenyan

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available HPV is classified into high-risk and low-risk types depending on its probability of leading to tumorigenesis. Many studies have shown that HPV infection, especially the infection caused by the high-risk type, is always related to prostate cancer, bladder cancer, penile cancer, testicular cancer, and other urinary system tumors. However, previous studies differed in sexual openness and racial genetic susceptibility of the study object, sample size, and experimental methods. Hence, the correlation between high-risk HPV infection and urinary system tumors remains controversial. The early open reading frame of the HPV genome is composed of E1–E7, among which E6 and E7 are the key transfer proteins. The combination of these proteins with oncogene and anti-oncogene may be one of the mechanisms leading to tumorigenesis.

  18. Game Theory and Risk-Based Levee System Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hui, R.; Lund, J. R.; Madani, K.

    2014-12-01

    Risk-based analysis has been developed for optimal levee design for economic efficiency. Along many rivers, two levees on opposite riverbanks act as a simple levee system. Being rational and self-interested, land owners on each river bank would tend to independently optimize their levees with risk-based analysis, resulting in a Pareto-inefficient levee system design from the social planner's perspective. Game theory is applied in this study to analyze decision making process in a simple levee system in which the land owners on each river bank develop their design strategies using risk-based economic optimization. For each land owner, the annual expected total cost includes expected annual damage cost and annualized construction cost. The non-cooperative Nash equilibrium is identified and compared to the social planner's optimal distribution of flood risk and damage cost throughout the system which results in the minimum total flood cost for the system. The social planner's optimal solution is not feasible without appropriate level of compensation for the transferred flood risk to guarantee and improve conditions for all parties. Therefore, cooperative game theory is then employed to develop an economically optimal design that can be implemented in practice. By examining the game in the reversible and irreversible decision making modes, the cost of decision making myopia is calculated to underline the significance of considering the externalities and evolution path of dynamic water resource problems for optimal decision making.

  19. Systemic risk and heterogeneous leverage in banking networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuzubaş, Tolga Umut; Saltoğlu, Burak; Sever, Can

    2016-11-01

    This study probes systemic risk implications of leverage heterogeneity in banking networks. We show that the presence of heterogeneous leverages drastically changes the systemic effects of defaults and the nature of the contagion in interbank markets. Using financial leverage data from the US banking system, through simulations, we analyze the systemic significance of different types of borrowers, the evolution of the network, the consequences of interbank market size and the impact of market segmentation. Our study is related to the recent Basel III regulations on systemic risk and the treatment of the Global Systemically Important Banks (GSIBs). We also assess the extent to which the recent capital surcharges on GSIBs may curb financial fragility. We show the effectiveness of surcharge policy for the most-levered banks vis-a-vis uniform capital injection.

  20. Software requirements specification for the program analysis and control system risk management module

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    SCHAEFER, J.C.

    1999-01-01

    TWR Program Analysis and Control System Risk Module is used to facilitate specific data processes surrounding the Risk Management program of the Tank Waste Retrieval environment. This document contains the Risk Management system requirements of the database system