WorldWideScience

Sample records for systemic risks paradoxes

  1. Paradox

    OpenAIRE

    Thomson, Amanda

    2015-01-01

    A creative non-fiction piece and photo-essay in a magazine, which was the outcome from Paradox: The Magazine Lab. This was a two day residential workshop for artists, writers and activists at Cove Park, Argyll, organised by Pallabs (www.pallabs.org) with the objective to create a magazine in a weekend.

  2. Adolescent Suicide Risk Today: A Paradox.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lester, David

    1998-01-01

    A review of international statistics indicates that youth suicide rates are not increasing in all nations. Furthermore, it is suggested that the quality of life in nations is improving and that this improvement itself may increase the risk of suicide, especially in youth with narcissistic personality traits and antisocial personality disorder…

  3. Design principles of paradoxical signaling in the immune system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hart, Yuval

    A widespread feature of cell-cell signaling systems is paradoxical pleiotropy: the same secreted signaling molecule can induce opposite effects in the responding cells. For example, the cytokine IL-2 can promote proliferation and death of T-cells. The role of such paradoxical signaling remains unclear. We suggest that this mechanism provides homeostatic concentration of cells, independent of initial conditions. The crux of the paradoxical mechanism is the combination of a positive and a negative feedback loops creating two stable states - an OFF state and an ON state. Experimentally, we found that CD4 + cells grown in culture with a 30-fold difference in initial concentrations reached a homeostatic concentration nearly independent of initial cell levels (ON-state). Below an initial threshold, cell density decayed to extinction (OFF-state). Mathematical modeling explained the observed cell and cytokine dynamics and predicted conditions that shifted cell fate from homeostasis to the OFF-state. We suggest that paradoxical signaling provides cell circuits with specific dynamical features that are robust to environmental perturbations.

  4. The paradox of diabetes, obesity and cardiovascular risk

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2014-06-03

    Jun 3, 2014 ... Weight loss to reduce cardiovascular risk is encouraged in both healthy overweight individuals and those at high cardiovascular risk ... cardiovascular risk factors, such as blood pressure, lipid profile and blood glucose control, but also with a reduction ..... women, normal weight obesity (body fat >3 3.3% vs.

  5. The paradox of diabetes, obesity and cardiovascular risk | Webb ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Weight loss to reduce cardiovascular risk is encouraged in both healthy overweight individuals and those at high cardiovascular risk, including patients with diabetes. However, a large body of studies suggest that, in comparison to overweight and even obese subjects, cardiovascular events may be more common among ...

  6. Paradoxical risk perception and behaviours related to Avian Flu outbreak and education campaign, Laos

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorvongseng Somchay

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In Laos, small backyard poultry systems predominate (90%. The first lethal human cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI occurred in 2007. Few studies have addressed the impact of outbreaks and education campaigns on a smallholder producer system. We evaluated awareness and behaviours related to educational campaigns and the 2007 HPAI outbreaks. Methods During a national 2-stage cross-sectional randomised survey we interviewed 1098 households using a pre-tested questionnaire in five provinces representative of the Southern to Northern strata of Laos. We used multivariate analysis (Stata, version 8; Stata Corporation, College Station, TX, USA to analyse factors affecting recollection of HPAI educational messages, awareness of HPAI, and behaviour change. Results Of the 1098 participants, 303 (27.6% received training on HPAI. The level of awareness was similar to that in 2006. The urban population considered risk to be decreased, yet unsafe behaviours persisted or increased. This contrasted with an increase in awareness and safe behaviour practices in rural areas. Reported behaviour changes in rural areas included higher rates of cessation of poultry consumption and dead poultry burial when compared to 2006. No participants reported poultry deaths to the authorities. Overall, 70% could recall an educational message but the content and accuracy differed widely depending on training exposure. Washing hands and other hygiene advice, messages given during the HPAI educational campaign, were not recalled. Trained persons were able to recall only one message while untrained participants recalled a broader range of messages. Factors associated with an awareness of a threat of AI in Laos were: having received HPAI training, literacy level, access to TV, recent information, living in rural areas. Conclusion We report a paradoxical relationship between unsafe behaviours and risk perception in urban areas, as well as exposure to

  7. Addressing the 21st Century Paradox: Integrating Entrepreneurship in the Computer Information Systems Curriculum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, Guido; Babb, Jeffry

    2015-01-01

    The Computer Information Systems (CIS) discipline faces an identity crisis: although demand for CIS graduates is growing, student enrollment is either in decline, or is at least soft or flat in many cases. This has been referred to as the 21st century paradox. As one solution to this problem, we propose to integrate entrepreneurship in the CIS…

  8. BEWARE, PERSON-YEARS! EXPERIENCE OF SIMPSON PARADOX OBSERVATION IN EPIDEMIOLOGICAL RISK EXAMINATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.F. Obesnyuk

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available It is shown, on the examples of concrete publications, that "person-years" category application in multi-factor health risks analysis can lead to false conclusions in the process of observation data grouping due to Simpson paradox influence when examinations are performed via demographic or epidemiological techniques. The paradox occurs when heterogeneous strata are being compared. "Person-years" category first appeared in the middle of the 17th century, long before first applications of mathematical tools in statistics and probability theory; it does not fully correspond to up-to-date requirements of epidemiological research. Risk theory should change 17–18 century paradigm as it focuses on conditional probability of unwanted events occurrence and not on a principle of comparing their intensities. It is particularly vital in case when we deal with determining possible damage to health caused by effects exerted by such factors and under such conditions when individual damage cannot be measured objectively but when it is possible to quantitatively determine regularities of changes in stochastic ability to survive for a large group of people or remote consequences occurrence for it. We prove it is necessary to create specialized mathematical tools and hybrid software able to solve a risks assessment task as an inverse one. Mathematical tools of large contingency tables could serve as prototypes of such tools; we can also use multi-factor logistical and Poisson regressions which are usually applied in countable events analysis. We should note that it is also necessary to eliminate a number of methodological drawbacks which are attributable to the said tools.

  9. The risk of arrhythmias following coronary artery bypass surgery: do smokers have a paradox effect?

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Al-Sarraf, Nael

    2010-11-01

    Smoking is reported to increase the risk of arrhythmias. However, there are limited data on its effects on arrhythmias following coronary artery bypass graft (CABG). This is a retrospective review of a prospective database of all CABG patients over an eight-year period. Our cohort (n=2813) was subdivided into: current (n=1169), former (n=837), and non-smokers (n=807). Predictors of arrhythmias following CABG in relation to smoking status were analysed. Atrial arrhythmias occurred in 942 patients (33%). Ventricular arrhythmias occurred in 48 patients (2%) and high-grade atrioventricular block occurred in five patients (0.2%). Arrhythmias were lower in current smokers than former and non-smokers (29% vs. 40% vs. 39%, respectively P<0.001). Logistic regression analysis showed 30% arrhythmia risk reduction in smokers compared to non-smokers [odds ratio (OR) 0.7, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.5-0.8] and this effect persisted after accounting for potential confounders while former smokers had the same risk as non-smokers (OR 1.04, CI 0.9-1.3). There were no significant differences in mortality. Smokers are less prone to develop arrhythmias following CABG. This paradox effect is lost in former smokers. This effect is possibly due to a lower state of hyper adrenergic stimulation observed in smokers than non-smokers following the stress of surgery.

  10. Renewable Electric Plant Information System user interface manual: Paradox 7 Runtime for Windows

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-11-01

    The Renewable Electric Plant Information System (REPiS) is a comprehensive database with detailed information on grid-connected renewable electric plants in the US. The current version, REPiS3 beta, was developed in Paradox for Windows. The user interface (UI) was developed to facilitate easy access to information in the database, without the need to have, or know how to use, Paradox for Windows. The UI is designed to provide quick responses to commonly requested sorts of the database. A quick perusal of this manual will familiarize one with the functions of the UI and will make use of the system easier. There are six parts to this manual: (1) Quick Start: Instructions for Users Familiar with Database Applications; (2) Getting Started: The Installation Process; (3) Choosing the Appropriate Report; (4) Using the User Interface; (5) Troubleshooting; (6) Appendices A and B.

  11. Proof of concept in cardiovascular risk: the paradoxical findings in blood pressure and lipid abnormalities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fuchs FD

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Flavio Danni Fuchs, Sandra Costa Fuchs, Leila Beltrami Moreira, Miguel GusDivision of Cardiology and Postgraduate Studies Program in Cardiology, Hospital de Clinicas de Porto Alegre, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, BrazilAbstract: High blood pressure and lipoprotein abnormalities were identified by many cohort studies as the major risk factors for cardiovascular disease. Laboratory experiments apparently confirmed their role in the causation of atherosclerosis, but a proof of concept requires the corroboration by clinical trials in human beings. The size of benefit in clinical trials regarding the control of high blood pressure was within the estimations of risk provided by cohort studies. For a reduction of 10 mmHg in systolic blood pressure or 5 mmHg in diastolic blood pressure, the relative risk reduction of coronary heart disease was 22% (95% confidence interval 27%–17% in a meta-analysis of clinical trials, close to the estimation of reduction of 25% (95% confidence interval 23%–27% provided by a meta-analysis of cohort studies. The corresponding values for stroke were 41% (95% confidence interval 33%–48% in clinical trials compared to a cohort risk prediction of 36% (95% confidence interval 34%–38%. This efficacy was shared by all blood pressure-lowering drugs. The same figure has not paradoxically happened with drugs that act over abnormalities of cholesterol and lipoproteins. Only statins, which have other beneficial actions as well, have consistently lowered the incidence of cardiovascular diseases, an efficacy that was not reproduced by older and newer quite potent lipid drugs. The adverse effects of these drugs may nullify their beneficial effects over lipoproteins and abnormalities of lipoproteins may only be surrogate markers of the underlying real risks.Keywords: proof of concept, hypertension, lipoproteins, clinical trials

  12. Melanoma risk perception and prevention behavior among African-Americans: the minority melanoma paradox

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goldenberg A

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Alina Goldenberg,1 Igor Vujic,2,3 Martina Sanlorenzo,2,4 Susana Ortiz-Urda2 1Department of Internal Medicine/Dermatology, University of California, San Diego, 2Mt Zion Cancer Research Center, University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA; 3Department of Dermatology, The Rudolfstiftung Hospital, Academic Teaching Hospital, Medical University Vienna, Vienna, Austria; 4Section of Dermatology, Department of Medical Sciences, University of Turin, Turin, Italy Introduction: Melanoma is the most deadly type of skin cancer with 75% of all skin cancer deaths within the US attributed to it. Risk factors for melanoma include ultraviolet exposure, genetic predisposition, and phenotypic characteristics (eg, fair skin and blond hair. Whites have a 27-fold higher incidence of melanoma than African-Americans (AA, but the 5-year survival is 17.8% lower for AA than Whites. It is reported continuously that AA have more advanced melanomas at diagnosis, and overall lower survival rates. This minority melanoma paradox is not well understood or studied. Objective: To explore further, the possible explanations for the difference in melanoma severity and survival in AA within the US. Methods: Qualitative review of the literature. Results: Lack of minority-targeted public education campaigns, low self-risk perception, low self-skin examinations, intrinsic virulence, vitamin D differences, and physician mistrust may play a role in the melanoma survival disparity among AA. Conclusion: Increases in public awareness of melanoma risk among AA through physician and media-guided education, higher index of suspicion among individuals and physicians, and policy changes can help to improve early detection and close the melanoma disparity gap in the future. Keywords: acral, advanced, African-American, disparity, melanoma, survival

  13. How to Avoid Fragility of Financial Systems: Lessons from the Financial Crisis and St. Petersburg Paradox

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takayasu, Hideki

    Firstly, I point out that the financial crisis occurred in 2008 has many analogous points with a physical phenomenon of brittle fracture in the sense that it is a highly irreversible phenomenon caused by concentration of stress to the weakest point. Then, I discuss distribution of gain-loss of continuous transactions of options which can be regarded as a source of stress among financial companies. The historical problem of Saint Petersburg paradox is reviewed and it is argued that the paradox is solved by decomposing the process into a combination of a fair gamble and an accompanied financial option. By generalizing this fair gamble it is shown that the gain-loss distribution in this problem is closely related to the distribution of gain-loss of business firms in the real world. Finally, I pose a serious question to the ordinary way of financing money to business firms with compound interest rates. Instead we introduce a new way of financing business firms without applying prefixed interest rates, in which financial stress is shared by all involved firms. This method is expected to reduce the risk of both financial firms and business firms, and is applicable even in the non-growing society.

  14. Paradoxical reaction of raynaud phenomenon following the repeated administration of iloprost in a patient with diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barreira, Rebeca Iglesias; García, Belén Bardán; López, Mónica Granero; Legazpi, Iria Rodríguez; Díaz, Hortensia Álvarez; Penín, Isaura Rodríguez

    2012-10-01

    To report a paradoxical reaction of Raynaud phenomenon following the repeated administration of iloprost in a patient with diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis with vascular involvement. In January 2006, a 40-year-old male was diagnosed with diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis with pulmonary, esophageal, cutaneous, and vascular involvement (Raynaud phenomenon, with digital ulcers on his hands). In December 2008, treatment with iloprost was started due to worsening disease. Nine cycles of iloprost were administered at a rate of 0.5-1 ng/kg/min (6 hours per day, for 5 days every 6-8 weeks); the patient tolerated this treatment well. However, on the fourth day of cycles 10 and 11, the patient developed paradoxical Raynaud phenomenon in the hand with perfusion when the infusion was increased to 1 ng/kg/min, requiring treatment to be stopped. Treatment was continued during cycles 12 and 13 at 0.5 ng/kg/min; the patient tolerated the treatment well, although paradoxical Raynaud phenomenon occurred when the rate of infusion was increased. Raynaud phenomenon is extremely common in patients with scleroderma, and often is severe. Iloprost has vasodilating, antiplatelet, cytoprotective, and immunomodulating properties, and has been found to be an efficacious alternative to nifedipine for the treatment of Raynaud phenomenon in patients with scleroderma. The Naranjo probability scale indicated that iloprost was the probable cause of the paradoxical Raynaud phenomenon in this patient. This case demonstrates a probable relationship between the rate of infusion of iloprost and the paradoxical reaction of Raynaud phenomenon.

  15. What Paradox?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holt, Robin; Zundel, Mike

    2017-01-01

    This chapter investigates the relationship between paradox and the logical typing of classes and members. Class-based thinking affords efficiency in communication and the progressive, additive development of knowledge, but also creates fissures, shortcuts, truncations, and delimitations that gene...

  16. The paradox of chronic neuroinflammation, systemic immune suppression, autoimmunity after traumatic chronic spinal cord injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwab, Jan M; Zhang, Yi; Kopp, Marcel A; Brommer, Benedikt; Popovich, Phillip G

    2014-08-01

    During the transition from acute to chronic stages of recovery after spinal cord injury (SCI), there is an evolving state of immunologic dysfunction that exacerbates the problems associated with the more clinically obvious neurologic deficits. Since injury directly affects cells embedded within the "immune privileged/specialized" milieu of the spinal cord, maladaptive or inefficient responses are likely to occur. Collectively, these responses qualify as part of the continuum of "SCI disease" and are important therapeutic targets to improve neural repair and neurological outcome. Generic immune suppressive therapies have been largely unsuccessful, mostly because inflammation and immunity exert both beneficial (plasticity enhancing) and detrimental (e.g. glia- and neurodegenerative; secondary damage) effects and these functions change over time. Moreover, "compartimentalized" investigations, limited to only intraspinal inflammation and associated cellular or molecular changes in the spinal cord, neglect the reality that the structure and function of the CNS are influenced by systemic immune challenges and that the immune system is 'hardwired' into the nervous system. Here, we consider this interplay during the progression from acute to chronic SCI. Specifically, we survey impaired/non-resolving intraspinal inflammation and the paradox of systemic inflammatory responses in the context of ongoing chronic immune suppression and autoimmunity. The concepts of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), compensatory anti-inflammatory response syndrome (CARS) and "neurogenic" spinal cord injury-induced immune depression syndrome (SCI-IDS) are discussed as determinants of impaired "host-defense" and trauma-induced autoimmunity. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Obesity paradox and risk of sudden death in heart failure results from the MUerte Subita en Insuficiencia cardiaca (MUSIC) study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gastelurrutia, Paloma; Pascual-Figal, Domingo; Vazquez, Rafael; Cygankiewicz, Iwona; Shamagian, Lillian Grigorian; Puig, Teresa; Ferrero, Andreu; Cinca, Juan; de Luna, Antoni Bayes; Bayes-Genis, Antoni

    2011-01-01

    among patients with heart failure (HF), body mass index (BMI) has been inversely associated with mortality, giving rise to the so-called obesity paradox. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between BMI and two modes of cardiac death: pump failure death and sudden death. nine hundred seventy-nine patients with mild to moderate chronic symptomatic HF from the MUSIC (MUerte Subita en Insuficiencia Cardiaca) Study, a prospective, multicenter, and longitudinal study designed to assess risk predictors of cardiac mortality, were followed up during a median of 44 months. Independent predictors of death were identified by a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model. higher BMI emerged as an independent predictor of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.94, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.91-0.97, P = .0003) and pump failure death (HR = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.88-0.98, P = .004). Sudden death accounted for 45% of deaths in obese patients, 53% in overweight patients, and 37% in lean patients. No significant relationship between BMI and sudden death was observed (HR = 0.97, 95% CI = 0.92-1.02, P = .28). The only independent predictors of sudden death were prior history of myocardial infarction (HR = 1.89, 95% CI = 1.23-2.90, P = .004), hypertension (HR = 1.66, 95% CI = 1.05-2.63, P = .03), left ventricular ejection fraction (HR = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.79-0.96, P = .006), and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (HR = 1.01, 95% CI = 1.00-1.02, P = .048). the obesity paradox in HF affects all-cause mortality and pump failure death but not sudden death. The risk of dying suddenly was similar across BMI categories in this cohort of ambulatory patients with HF.

  18. Extending birthday paradox theory to estimate the number of tags in RFID systems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masoud Shakiba

    Full Text Available The main objective of Radio Frequency Identification systems is to provide fast identification for tagged objects. However, there is always a chance of collision, when tags transmit their data to the reader simultaneously. Collision is a time-consuming event that reduces the performance of RFID systems. Consequently, several anti-collision algorithms have been proposed in the literature. Dynamic Framed Slotted ALOHA (DFSA is one of the most popular of these algorithms. DFSA dynamically modifies the frame size based on the number of tags. Since the real number of tags is unknown, it needs to be estimated. Therefore, an accurate tag estimation method has an important role in increasing the efficiency and overall performance of the tag identification process. In this paper, we propose a novel estimation technique for DFSA anti-collision algorithms that applies birthday paradox theory to estimate the number of tags accurately. The analytical discussion and simulation results prove that the proposed method increases the accuracy of tag estimation and, consequently, outperforms previous schemes.

  19. Extending birthday paradox theory to estimate the number of tags in RFID systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shakiba, Masoud; Singh, Mandeep Jit; Sundararajan, Elankovan; Zavvari, Azam; Islam, Mohammad Tariqul

    2014-01-01

    The main objective of Radio Frequency Identification systems is to provide fast identification for tagged objects. However, there is always a chance of collision, when tags transmit their data to the reader simultaneously. Collision is a time-consuming event that reduces the performance of RFID systems. Consequently, several anti-collision algorithms have been proposed in the literature. Dynamic Framed Slotted ALOHA (DFSA) is one of the most popular of these algorithms. DFSA dynamically modifies the frame size based on the number of tags. Since the real number of tags is unknown, it needs to be estimated. Therefore, an accurate tag estimation method has an important role in increasing the efficiency and overall performance of the tag identification process. In this paper, we propose a novel estimation technique for DFSA anti-collision algorithms that applies birthday paradox theory to estimate the number of tags accurately. The analytical discussion and simulation results prove that the proposed method increases the accuracy of tag estimation and, consequently, outperforms previous schemes.

  20. The paradox of chronic neuroinflammation, systemic immune suppression and autoimmunity after traumatic chronic spinal cord injury

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopp, Marcel A.; Brommer, Benedikt; Popovich, Phillip G.

    2014-01-01

    During the transition from acute to chronic stages of recovery after spinal cord injury (SCI), there is an evolving state of immunologic dysfunction that exacerbates the problems associated with the more clinically obvious neurologic deficits. Since injury directly affects cells embedded within the “immune privileged/specialized” milieu of the spinal cord, maladaptive or inefficient responses are likely to occur. Collectively, these responses qualify as part of the continuum of “SCI disease” and are important therapeutic targets to improve neural repair and neurological outcome. Generic immune suppressive therapies have been largely unsuccessful, mostly because nflammation and immunity exert both beneficial (plasticity enhancing) and detrimental (e.g. glia- and neurodegenerative; secondary damage) effects and these functions change over time. Moreover, “compartmentalized” investigations, limited to only intraspinal inflammation and associated cellular or molecular changes in the spinal cord, neglect the reality that the structure and function of the CNS is influenced by systemic immune challenges and that the immune system is hardwired into the nervous system. Here, we consider this interplay during the progression from acute to chronic SCI. Specifically, we survey impaired/non-resolving intraspinal inflammation and the paradox of systemic inflammatory responses in the face of ongoing chronic immune suppression and autoimmunity. The concepts of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), compensatory anti-inflammatory response syndrome (CARS) and ‘neurogenic’ spinal cord injury-induced immune depression syndrome (SCI-IDS) are discussed as determinants of impaired ‘host-defense’ and trauma-induced autoimmunity. PMID:25017893

  1. Respiratory paradoxical adverse drug reactions associated with acetylcysteine and carbocysteine systemic use in paediatric patients: a national survey.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pauline Mallet

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To report pediatric cases of paradoxical respiratory adverse drug reactions (ADRs after exposure to oral mucolytic drugs (carbocysteine, acetylcysteine that led to the withdrawal of licenses for these drugs for infants in France and then Italy. DESIGN: The study followed the recommendations of the European guidelines of pharmacovigilance for medicines used in the paediatric population. SETTING: Cases voluntarily reported by physicians from 1989 to 2008 were identified in the national French pharmacovigilance public database and in drug company databases. PATIENTS: The definition of paradoxical respiratory ADRs was based on the literature. Exposure to mucolytic drugs was arbitrarily defined as having received mucolytic drugs for at least 2 days (>200 mg and at least until the day before the first signs of the suspected ADR. RESULTS: The non-exclusive paradoxical respiratory ADRs reported in 59 paediatric patients (median age 5 months, range 3 weeks to 34 months, 98% younger than 2 years old were increased bronchorrhea or mucus vomiting (n = 27, worsening of respiratory distress during respiratory tract infection (n = 35, dyspnoea (n = 18, cough aggravation or prolongation (n = 11, and bronchospasm (n = 1. Fifty-one (86% children required hospitalization or extended hospitalization because of the ADR; one patient died of pulmonary oedema after mucus vomiting. CONCLUSION: Parents, physicians, pharmacists, and drug regulatory agencies should know that the benefit risk ratio of mucolytic drugs is at least null and most probably negative in infants according to available evidence.

  2. Participation of the cholinergic system in the ethanol-induced suppression of paradoxical sleep in rats

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.A. Papale

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Sleep disturbance is among the many consequences of ethanol abuse in both humans and rodents. Ethanol consumption can reduce REM or paradoxical sleep (PS in humans and rats, respectively. The first aim of this study was to develop an animal model of ethanol-induced PS suppression. This model administered intragastrically (by gavage to male Wistar rats (3 months old, 200-250 g 0.5 to 3.5 g/kg ethanol. The 3.5 g/kg dose of ethanol suppressed the PS stage compared with the vehicle group (distilled water during the first 2-h interval (0-2 h; 1.3 vs 10.2; P < 0.001. The second aim of this study was to investigate the mechanisms by which ethanol suppresses PS. We examined the effects of cholinergic drug pretreatment. The cholinergic system was chosen because of the involvement of cholinergic neurotransmitters in regulating the sleep-wake cycle. A second set of animals was pretreated with 2.5, 5.0, and 10 mg/kg pilocarpine (cholinergic agonist or atropine (cholinergic antagonist. These drugs were administered 1 h prior to ethanol (3.5 g/kg or vehicle. Treatment with atropine prior to vehicle or ethanol produced a statistically significant decrease in PS, whereas pilocarpine had no effect on minutes of PS. Although the mechanism by which ethanol induces PS suppression is not fully understood, these data suggest that the cholinergic system is not the only system involved in this interaction.

  3. The Phases and Paradoxes of Educational Quality Assurance: The Case of the Singapore Education System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, Pak Tee

    2008-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to highlight three important insights into educational quality assurance, using Singapore as a case study. It is useful to policy makers and practitioners to understand the phases and paradoxes in their educational quality assurance journey so that they may recognise and manage better the complex dynamics of…

  4. NASA's Risk Management System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perera, Jeevan S.

    2011-01-01

    Leadership is key to success. Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks -- risk office personnel. Each group is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk reporting and communication is an essential element of risk management and will combine both qualitative and quantitative elements. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner. Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

  5. Paradoxes of risk management: Social responsibility and self-exclusion in Dutch casinos

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kingma, S.F.

    2015-01-01

    This article deals with the basic contradictions of risk management and responsibility regarding problem gambling and self-exclusions, and draws special attention to the role knowledge production and science play in the construction and evaluation of gambling risks. This remarkable case of corporate

  6. Systemic Risk and Returns

    OpenAIRE

    Boman, Arthur Lee

    2013-01-01

    I solve a consumption based model, with interfirm systemic risk, for a portfolio optimization with arbitrary return distributions and endogenous stochastic discount factor (sdf). The model highlights a new systemic risk: systemic allocation risk. In contrast to the case without systemic risk, the market and planner allocate capital differently. The externality causes the planner to reduce investment in the risky firm. The market, modeled as a representative agent, does not just ignore the ext...

  7. NASA's Risk Management System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perera, Jeevan S.

    2013-01-01

    Phased-approach for implementation of risk management is necessary. Risk management system will be simple, accessible and promote communication of information to all relevant stakeholders for optimal resource allocation and risk mitigation. Risk management should be used by all team members to manage risks - not just risk office personnel. Each group/department is assigned Risk Integrators who are facilitators for effective risk management. Risks will be managed at the lowest-level feasible, elevate only those risks that require coordination or management from above. Risk informed decision making should be introduced to all levels of management. ? Provide necessary checks and balances to insure that risks are caught/identified and dealt with in a timely manner. Many supporting tools, processes & training must be deployed for effective risk management implementation. Process improvement must be included in the risk processes.

  8. Risk assessment as a paradox: when actions of an IRB become incompatible with ethical principles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranjbar, Vania

    2012-01-01

    As anecdotal evidence mounts up of Institutional Review Boards becoming an impediment to research, I share a personal experience in this article to argue how the conduct of an Institutional Review Board was incompatible with a number of ethical principles such as Respect for Persons, Deception, Informed Consent, and Justice. I conclude by promoting Evidence-Based Ethical Problem Solving to facilitate and enhance risk assessments through empirical evidence.

  9. A Magnetic Paradox

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arndt, Ebe

    2006-11-01

    Two recent articles1,2 in this journal described how an air core solenoid connected to an ac power source may restore the magnetization of a bar magnet with an alternating magnetic field (see Figs. 1 and 2). Although we are quite accustomed to using a constant magnetic field in an air core solenoid to remagnetize a ferromagnet, it is puzzling that we can also use an alternating magnetic field to realign the magnetic domains of a ferromagnet. To make the puzzle even more intriguing, the very same setup may be used to degauss a TV screen; that is, the alternating magnetic field of an air core solenoid can also "scramble" the magnetic domains of a ferromagnet! Although the latter phenomenon intuitively makes more sense, we are still left with a confusing paradox: How can an alternating magnetic field align the magnetic domains in one ferromagnet and scramble the magnetic domains in another? Paradoxes like these are ideal for student investigations because they create a natural interest. In fact, since the two articles mentioned above were unable to explain the magnetic paradox, my students and I were intrigued enough to investigate the phenomenon and then try to understand it theoretically. This paper describes how we used the paradoxical phenomenon for a student investigation into nonlinear systems. In order to be successful, students should be familiar with calculus, preferably at the level of an advanced-placement class.

  10. The Lunar orbit paradox

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomić Aleksandar S.

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Newton's formula for gravity force gives greather force intensity for atraction of the Moon by the Sun than atraction by the Earth. However, central body in lunar (primary orbit is the Earth. So appeared paradox which were ignored from competent specialist, because the most important problem, determination of lunar orbit, was inmediately solved sufficiently by mathematical ingeniosity - introducing the Sun as dominant body in the three body system by Delaunay, 1860. On this way the lunar orbit paradox were not canceled. Vujičić made a owerview of principles of mechanics in year 1998, in critical consideration. As an example for application of corrected procedure he was obtained gravity law in some different form, which gave possibility to cancel paradox of lunar orbit. The formula of Vujičić, with our small adaptation, content two type of acceleration - related to inertial mass and related to gravity mass. So appears carried information on the origin of the Moon, and paradox cancels.

  11. Considering risk contexts in explaining the paradoxical HIV increase among female sex workers in Mumbai and Thane, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bandewar, Sunita V S; Bharat, Shalini; Kongelf, Anine; Pisal, Hemlata; Collumbien, Martine

    2016-01-28

    The period 2006-2009 saw intensive scale-up of HIV prevention efforts and an increase in reported safer sex among brothel and street-based sex workers in Mumbai and Thane (Maharashtra, India). Yet during the same period, the prevalence of HIV increased in these groups. A better understanding of sex workers' risk environment is needed to explain this paradox. In this qualitative study we conducted 36 individual interviews, 9 joint interviews, and 10 focus group discussions with people associated with HIV interventions between March and May 2012. Dramatic changes in Mumbai's urban landscape dominated participants' accounts, with dwindling sex worker numbers in traditional brothel areas attributed to urban restructuring. Gentrification and anti-trafficking efforts explained an escalation in police raids. This contributed to dispersal of sex work with the sex-trade management adapting by becoming more hidden and mobile, leading to increased vulnerability. Affordable mobile phone technology enabled independent sex workers to trade in more hidden ways and there was an increased dependence on lovers for support. The risk context has become ever more challenging, with animosity against sex work amplified since the scale up of targeted interventions. Focus on condom use with sex workers inadvertently contributed to the diversification of the sex trade as clients seek out women who are less visible. Sex workers and other marginalised women who sell sex all strictly prioritise anonymity. Power structures in the sex trade continue to pose insurmountable barriers to reaching young and new sex workers. Economic vulnerability shaped women's decisions to compromise on condom use. Surveys monitoring HIV prevalence among 'visible' street and brothel-bases sex workers are increasingly un-representative of all women selling sex and self-reported condom use is no longer a valid measure of risk reduction. Targeted harm reduction programmes with sex workers fail when implemented in

  12. Prevention paradox logic and problem gambling: Does low-risk gambling impose a greater burden of harm than high-risk gambling?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delfabbro, Paul; King, Daniel

    2017-06-01

    Background and aims The aim of this paper is to examine the evidence and arguments in favor of prevention paradox (PP) logic in the context of problem gambling. Evidence from recent studies of gambling and the distribution of harm across lower and higher risk gamblers is reviewed to examine the contention that the absolute burden of harm is greater in low-risk (LR) gamblers than the problem gamblers. Methods The review examines a number of methodological and conceptual concerns about existing evidence in support of the PP. Results The principal problems identified include the misclassification of LR gamblers; the use of binary scoring method that understates the frequency of harms in high-risk populations; a tendency to confuse behavior and harm; and the use of potentially overly inclusive definitions of harm with low thresholds of severity. Discussion and conclusions This paper makes a number of recommendations for enhancement of this area of research, including the use of clear definitions of harm and LR behavior and a greater focus on harm with material impacts on people's quality of life.

  13. Coronary Collateral Circulation and Cardiovascular Risk Factors: Is There a Paradox?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhatt, Hemal; Kochar, Suzi; Htun, Wah Wah; Julliard, Kell; Fernaine, George

    2015-07-01

    We sought to determine the association of major cardiovascular risk factors and other comorbidities with the presence or absence of coronary collateral (CC) circulation. All electronic medical records from 2010 to 2011 were retrospectively reviewed. A total of 563 patients were divided into 2 groups: CC present (180) and CC absent (383). Smoking (P = .012, odds ratio [OR] 1.58), hypercholesterolemia (P = .001, OR 2.21), and hypertension (P = .034, OR 1.75) were associated with the presence of CC. Increasing body mass index (BMI, P = .001) and decreasing estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR, P = .042) were associated with the absence of CC. On multivariable linear regression analysis, hypercholesterolemia (P = .001, OR 2.28), BMI (P = .012, OR 0.77), and eGFR (P = .001, OR 0.70) were found to be independently associated with CC. Our findings will help predict patient populations more likely to have presence or absence of CC circulation. © The Author(s) 2014.

  14. Identity paradoxes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Đurić Jelena

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The article considers paradoxical nature of identity that emerges from: 1 the very concept of identity whose abstract generality unites various and even opposite features; 2 the processual nature of reality that is easier to express in the poetical metaphors or abstract principles than in unambiguous conceptual networks; 3 the oppose relationship between being and knowledge, mind and matter, subject and object, self and personality. Entangled in the labyrinth which evade efforts to be conceptually defined, the modern thinking of identity moves towards abandoning the idea of “self” on behalf of the “ego” and towards the misapprehension of identity as being identical. This corresponds to the “time of the lost spirit” stretched between the simultaneous need to find an identity and to give it up.

  15. Measuring Systemic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Acharya, Viral V.; Heje Pedersen, Lasse; Philippon, Thomas

    We present a simple model of systemic risk and we show that each financial institution's contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall (SES), i.e., its propensity to be undercapitalized when the system as a whole is undercapitalized. SES increases...... with the institution's leverage and with its expected loss in the tail of the system's loss distribution. Institutions internalize their externality if they are ‘taxed’ based on their SES. We demonstrate empirically the ability of SES to predict emerging risks during the financial crisis of 2007-2009, in particular...

  16. Systemic lymph node tuberculosis presenting with an aseptic psoas abscess caused by a paradoxical reaction after nine months of antituberculosis treatment: a case report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamada, Gen; Nishikiori, Hirotaka; Fujii, Masaru; Inomata, Shin-Ichiro; Chiba, Hirofumi; Hirokawa, Naoki; Takahashi, Hiroki

    2013-03-14

    A paradoxical reaction during antituberculosis treatment is defined as the worsening of pre-existing tuberculosis lesions or the appearance of a new tuberculosis lesion in patients whose clinical symptoms improved with antituberculosis treatment. The median onset time to the development of a paradoxical response has been reported to be about 60 days after the start of treatment. We report the case of a patient with a paradoxical reaction presenting as a psoas abscess after nine months of antituberculosis treatment. To the best of our knowledge, this manifestation has not previously been reported. A 23-year-old Japanese man presented to our hospital with lower abdominal pain. Computed tomography showed that he had mediastinal and abdominal para-aortic lymph node swellings. Fluorine-18 fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography showed hot spots in these lymph nodes and in his right cervical lymph node, suggesting a lymphoma. The examination of an abdominal lymph node biopsy specimen showed lymph node tuberculosis, so antituberculosis treatment was started. However, after nine months of treatment, he experienced right flank pain. Abdominal computed tomography showed a right psoas abscess and abdominal para-aortic lymph node swelling. The abscess was treated by percutaneous drainage. After repeated drainage, the psoas abscess subsided and disappeared. The purulent fluid yielded no microorganisms, suggesting a paradoxical reaction. Attention should be paid to paradoxical reactions occurring during antituberculosis treatment for systemic lymph node tuberculosis.

  17. Measuring Systemic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heje Pedersen, Lasse

    We present a simple model of systemic risk and we show that each financial institution’s contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall (SES), i.e., its propensity to be undercapitalized when the system as a whole is undercapitalized. SES increases...... with the institution’s leverage and with its expected loss in the tail of the system’s loss distribution. Institutions internalize their externality if they are “taxed” based on their SES. We demonstrate empirically the ability of SES to predict emerging risks during the financial crisis of 2007-2009, in particular...

  18. Exploring the isopycnal mixing and helium–heat paradoxes in a suite of Earth system models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Gnanadesikan

    2015-07-01

    this paper we show that this is not the case. In a suite of models with different spatially constant and spatially varying values of ARedi the distribution of radiocarbon and helium isotopes is sensitive to the value of ARedi. However, away from strong helium sources in the southeastern Pacific, the relationship between the two is not sensitive, indicating that large-scale advection is the limiting process for removing helium and radiocarbon from the deep ocean. The helium isotopes, in turn, suggest a higher value of ARedi below the thermocline than is seen in theoretical parameterizations based on baroclinic growth rates. We argue that a key part of resolving the isopycnal mixing paradox is to abandon the idea that ARedi has a direct relationship to local baroclinic instability and to the so-called "thickness" mixing coefficient AGM.

  19. Measuring Systemic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Acharya, Viral V.; Heje Pedersen, Lasse; Philippon, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    We present an economic model of systemic risk in which undercapitalization of the financial sector as a whole is assumed to harm the real economy, leading to a systemic risk externality. Each financial institution’s contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall...... (SES), that is, its propensity to be undercapitalized when the system as a whole is undercapitalized. SES increases in the institution’s leverage and its marginal expected shortfall (MES), that is, its losses in the tail of the system’s loss distribution. We demonstrate empirically the ability...... of components of SES to predict emerging systemic risk during the financial crisis of 2007–2009....

  20. Programmatic risk management system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mahn, J. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Wood, C.L. [Automated Solutions of Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1996-07-01

    The purpose of the Programmatic Risk Management System (PRMS) is to evaluate and manage potential risks associated with proposed projects (i.e., new products or processes, or possible research and technological development projects). Although the PRMS considers some technical aspects of risk, the primary focus of the methodology is programmatic risk. That is, the methodology permits an assessment of risks associated with such issues as the ability to successfully produce a product that performs in accordance with all customer requirements, and the availability and allocation of resources (money, equipment, facilities, skilled personnel). The PRMS process consists of five formalized activities that are essential for effective management of risks associated with proposed projects. These activities include risk assessment, development of appropriate risk mitigation strategies, estimating strategy implementation cost, ranking of risk mitigation strategies for resource allocation, and scheduling of strategy implementing. The PRMS utilizes a ranking system that allows the user to identify the most cost-effective investment of resources of minimizing risk.

  1. Coastal risk forecast system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabino, André; Poseiro, Pedro; Rodrigues, Armanda; Reis, Maria Teresa; Fortes, Conceição J.; Reis, Rui; Araújo, João

    2018-03-01

    The run-up and overtopping by sea waves are two of the main processes that threaten coastal structures, leading to flooding, destruction of both property and the environment, and harm to people. To build early warning systems, the consequences and associated risks in the affected areas must be evaluated. It is also important to understand how these two types of spatial information integrate with sensor data sources and the risk assessment methodology. This paper describes the relationship between consequences and risk maps, their role in risk management and how the HIDRALERTA system integrates both aspects in its risk methodology. It describes a case study for Praia da Vitória Port, Terceira Island, Azores, Portugal, showing that the main innovations in this system are twofold: it represents the overtopping flow and consequent flooding, which are critical for coastal and port areas protected by maritime structures, and it works also as a risk assessment tool, extremely important for long-term planning and decision-making. Moreover, the implementation of the system considers possible known variability issues, enabling changes in its behaviour as needs arise. This system has the potential to become a useful tool for the management of coastal and port areas, due to its capacity to effectively issue warnings and assess risks.

  2. A Participatory Process to Develop a Landslide Warning System: Paradoxes of Responsibility Sharing in a Case Study in Upper Austria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philipp Preuner

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available During a participatory process in Gmunden, Austria, the organizational and responsibility-sharing arrangements for a landslide warning system proved to be contested issues. While questions on the warning system technology and the distribution of information, including the alarm for evacuation, could be resolved with the support of experts, controversies arose on the financial and legal responsibilities that ensure long-term and effective monitoring for the protection of the landslide-prone community. This paper examines how responsibilities can be shared among the residents, experts, and public authorities during the design and operation of landslide warning systems. In particular, we discuss the outcome and implications of three stakeholder workshops where participants deliberated on warning-system options that, in turn, were based on a discourse analysis of extensive stakeholder interviews. The results of the case study show that an end-user orientation requires the consideration of stakeholder worldviews, interests, and conflicts. Paradoxically, the public did not fully support their own involvement in the maintenance and control of the warning system, but the authorities promoted shared responsibility. Deliberative planning does not then necessarily lead to responsibility sharing, but it proved effective as a platform for information and for shared ownership in the warning system.

  3. The Teacher's Paradox

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lilyquist, J. Gary

    1998-06-01

    New findings suggest that the way in which schools conduct their business is blocking our educational system from improving at a rate required to meet society's needs. A ground theory developed by exploring six organizational dimensions: external and internal environment cultures, leadership, strategy, structure, and results, verified the existence of the teacher's paradox. Implications suggest educational reformers must rethink approaches to school improvement by work within cultural boundaries. The forth coming book, "Are schools really like this?" presents "The Balance Alignment Model and Theory" to improve our schools using system thinking.

  4. Measuring Systemic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heje Pedersen, Lasse

    We present a simple model of systemic risk and we show that each financial institution’s contribution to systemic risk can be measured as its systemic expected shortfall (SES), i.e., its propensity to be undercapitalized when the system as a whole is undercapitalized. SES increases...... with the institution’s leverage and with its expected loss in the tail of the system’s loss distribution. Institutions internalize their externality if they are “taxed” based on their SES. We demonstrate empirically the ability of SES to predict emerging risks during the financial crisis of 2007-2009, in particular......, (i) the outcome of stress tests performed by regulators; (ii) the decline in equity valuations of large financial firms in the crisis; and, (iii) the widening of their credit default swap spreads....

  5. Solutions to Organizational Paradox

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Xin; Worm, Verner; Peihong, Xie

    Organizations face all kinds of paradoxical problems. There exist various solutions to organizational paradoxes. We develop a typology that lists nine possible logical approaches to understanding the relationship between paradoxical opposites, out of which we identify five types of solutions...... to organizational paradox. Four of the five solutions are explicitly associated with four prominent philosophies. We show the relevance of the five solutions to the real world by applying our scheme to understand different solutions to the generic strategy paradox. Finally, we address the question whether...... there is a superior solution and point out the paradox of paradox resolving, namely, paradoxes cannot be resolved once for all and we have to live with them....

  6. The Paradox of Restoring Native River Landscapes and Restoring Native Ecosystems in the Colorado River System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, J. C.

    2014-12-01

    Throughout the Colorado River basin (CRb), scientists and river managers collaborate to improve native ecosystems. Native ecosystems have deteriorated due to construction of dams and diversions that alter natural flow, sediment supply, and temperature regimes, trans-basin diversions that extract large amounts of water from some segments of the channel network, and invasion of non-native animals and plants. These scientist/manager collaborations occur in large, multi-stakeholder, adaptive management programs that include the Lower Colorado River Multi-Species Conservation Program, the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program, and the Upper Colorado River Endangered Species Recovery Program. Although a fundamental premise of native species recovery is that restoration of predam flow regimes inevitably leads to native species recovery, such is not the case in many parts of the CRb. For example, populations of the endangered humpback chub (Gila cypha) are largest in the sediment deficit, thermally altered conditions of the Colorado River downstream from Glen Canyon Dam, but these species occur in much smaller numbers in the upper CRb even though the flow regime, sediment supply, and sediment mass balance are less perturbed. Similar contrasts in the physical and biological response of restoration of predam flow regimes occurs in floodplains dominated by nonnative tamarisk (Tamarix spp.) where reestablishment of floods has the potential to exacerbate vertical accretion processes that disconnect the floodplain from the modern flow regime. A significant challenge in restoring segments of the CRb is to describe this paradox of physical and biological response to reestablishment of pre-dam flow regimes, and to clearly identify objectives of environmentally oriented river management. In many cases, understanding the nature of the perturbation to sediment mass balance caused by dams and diversions and understanding the constraints imposed by societal commitments to provide

  7. Mechanical Paradox: The Uphill Roller

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cortes, Emilio; Cortes-Poza, D.

    2011-01-01

    We analyse in detail the dynamics of a mechanical system which is a rigid body with the geometry of a double cone. This double cone is apparently able to spontaneously roll uphill along inclined rails. The experiment has been known for some centuries, and because of its peculiar behaviour, it has been named "mechanical paradox". Although this…

  8. Mathematical fallacies and paradoxes

    CERN Document Server

    Bunch, Bryan

    1982-01-01

    Stimulating, thought-provoking analysis of the most interesting intellectual inconsistencies in mathematics, physics, and language, including being led astray by algebra (De Morgan's paradox). 1982 edition.

  9. Extending Birthday Paradox Theory to Estimate the Number of Tags in RFID Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Shakiba, Masoud; Singh, Mandeep Jit; Sundararajan, Elankovan; Zavvari, Azam; Islam, Mohammad Tariqul

    2014-01-01

    The main objective of Radio Frequency Identification systems is to provide fast identification for tagged objects. However, there is always a chance of collision, when tags transmit their data to the reader simultaneously. Collision is a time-consuming event that reduces the performance of RFID systems. Consequently, several anti-collision algorithms have been proposed in the literature. Dynamic Framed Slotted ALOHA (DFSA) is one of the most popular of these algorithms. DFSA dynamically modif...

  10. Focus on: The cardiovascular system: what did we learn from the French (Paradox)?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mochly-Rosen, Daria; Zakhari, Samir

    2010-01-01

    Although heavy alcohol consumption has deleterious effects on heart health, moderate drinking is thought to have cardioprotective effects, reducing the risk of coronary artery disease and improving prognosis after a myocardial infarction. It still is unclear, however, if this effect can be achieved with all types of alcoholic beverages and results from the alcohol itself, from other compounds found in alcoholic beverages, or both. For example, the polyphenolic compound resveratrol, which is found particularly in red wine, can reduce the risk of atherosclerosis; however, it is not clear if the resveratrol levels present in wine are sufficient to achieve this result. Alcohol itself contributes to cardioprotection through several mechanisms. For example, it can improve the cholesterol profile, increasing the levels of "good" cholesterol and reducing the levels of "bad" cholesterol. Alcohol also may contribute to blood clot dissolution and may induce a phenomenon called pre-conditioning, whereby exposure to moderate alcohol levels (like short bouts of blood supply disruption [i.e., ischemia]), and result in reduced damage to the heart tissue after subsequent prolonged ischemia. Finally, the enzyme aldehyde dehydrogenase (ALDH) 2, which is involved in alcohol metabolism, also may contribute to alcohol-related cardioprotection by metabolizing other harmful aldehydes that could damage the heart muscle.

  11. The paradox of proportional representation: The effect of party systems and coalitions on individuals' electoral participation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brockington, David

    2004-01-01

    Empirical findings based on aggregate data have found that proportional representation (PR) has a mixed relationship with electoral participation. Large party systems, thought to be one of the benefits of PR in increasing turnout, instead depress turnout. This article examines two theories that seek

  12. The paradox of the individual household responsibility system in the grasslands of the Tibetan Plateau, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camille Richard; Yan Zhaoli; Du Guozhen

    2006-01-01

    Grasslands of the Tibetan plateau are commonly believed to be degrading as a result of unsustainable grazing practices. In response, the Grassland Law attempts to allocate grasslands based on the Individual Household Responsibility System model that has worked in the agricultural areas of China. However, the actual tenure scenario in the rangelands of Tibet is not as...

  13. The paradox of systemic vasodilatation and sympathetic nervous stimulation in space

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Norsk, Peter; Christensen, Niels Juel

    2009-01-01

    decreased by 5mmHg. This is in accordance with observations that very acute weightlessness during parabolic airplane flights and a week of weightlessness in space leads to a decrease in systemic vascular resistance. That the arterial resistance vessels are dilated in space is in contrast to the augmented...

  14. Macroscopic irreversibility and microscopic paradox: A Constructal law analysis of atoms as open systems

    OpenAIRE

    Umberto Lucia

    2016-01-01

    The relation between macroscopic irreversibility and microscopic reversibility is a present unsolved problem. Constructal law is introduced to develop analytically the Einstein?s, Schr?dinger?s, and Gibbs? considerations on the interaction between particles and thermal radiation (photons). The result leads to consider the atoms and molecules as open systems in continuous interaction with flows of photons from their surroundings. The consequent result is that, in any atomic transition, the ene...

  15. Paradoxes in a family business

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Horia MOAȘA

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Attention to the subject of organizational paradoxes has been increasing in the last several years as organizational scholars have extolled the opportunities offered by tensions, contradictions and oppositions in understanding organizations, organizing and the organized. This paper demonstrates the theoretical and empirical value of applying a paradox lens on family businesses that undergo a fundamental process of change by discussing three interrelated paradoxes: the paradox of ownership, the paradox of consultancy and the family business paradox.

  16. IDIOSYNCRATIC RISK AND SYSTEMIC RISK IN THE EUROPEAN BANKING SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trenca Ioan

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper assesses the predictability of Conditional Value at Risk measure in estimating systemic risk and contagion effects. Using the OLS panel estimation technique applied for a sample of European banks we highlight the link between systemic risk and a range of balance sheet indicators over 2008-2011. The empirical results show that future contributions of banks to systemic risk can be reduced by adjusting countercyclical the banks’ asset and liability portfolios.

  17. Macroscopic irreversibility and microscopic paradox: A Constructal law analysis of atoms as open systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucia, Umberto

    2016-10-01

    The relation between macroscopic irreversibility and microscopic reversibility is a present unsolved problem. Constructal law is introduced to develop analytically the Einstein’s, Schrödinger’s, and Gibbs’ considerations on the interaction between particles and thermal radiation (photons). The result leads to consider the atoms and molecules as open systems in continuous interaction with flows of photons from their surroundings. The consequent result is that, in any atomic transition, the energy related to the microscopic irreversibility is negligible, while when a great number of atoms (of the order of Avogadro’s number) is considered, this energy related to irreversibility becomes so large that its order of magnitude must be taken into account. Consequently, macroscopic irreversibility results related to microscopic irreversibility by flows of photons and amount of atoms involved in the processes.

  18. Paradoxes in probability theory

    CERN Document Server

    Eckhardt, William

    2013-01-01

    Paradoxes provide a vehicle for exposing misinterpretations and misapplications of accepted principles. This book discusses seven paradoxes surrounding probability theory.  Some remain the focus of controversy; others have allegedly been solved, however the accepted solutions are demonstrably incorrect. Each paradox is shown to rest on one or more fallacies.  Instead of the esoteric, idiosyncratic, and untested methods that have been brought to bear on these problems, the book invokes uncontroversial probability principles, acceptable both to frequentists and subjectivists. The philosophical disputation inspired by these paradoxes is shown to be misguided and unnecessary; for instance, startling claims concerning human destiny and the nature of reality are directly related to fallacious reasoning in a betting paradox, and a problem analyzed in philosophy journals is resolved by means of a computer program.

  19. [Assessing the cardiovascular risk in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnaud, L; Mathian, A; Bruckert, E; Amoura, Z

    2014-11-01

    Multiple factors contribute to the increased cardiovascular risk observed in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Among these are the so-called classical cardiovascular risk factors, the disease itself through its activity, treatments, and complications, and the thrombotic risk due to antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL). Observational studies suggest that most classical cardiovascular risk factors are observed more frequently in SLE patients than in the general population, and that these are insufficient to explain the increased cardiovascular risk observed in most studies. Given this high risk, adequate management of cardiovascular risk factors should be recommended in SLE patients. Paradoxically, the benefit due to the anti-inflammatory properties of treatments such as corticosteroids may exceed, in certain cases, their pro-atherogenic effect. Importantly, the tools that were developed for the estimation of cardiovascular risk at the individual level among the general population cannot be used reliably in SLE patients, as these tools appear to underestimate the true cardiovascular risk. The adequate indications and targets of cardiovascular treatments are therefore not fully known in SLE. A better understanding of the determinants of the cardiovascular risk in SLE will allow the identification and more tailored management of these high-risk patients. Copyright © 2014 Société nationale française de médecine interne (SNFMI). Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

  20. Financial Network Systemic Risk Contributions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hautsch, N.; Schaumburg, J.; Schienle, M.

    2015-01-01

    We propose the realized systemic risk beta as a measure of financial companies' contribution to systemic risk, given network interdependence between firms' tail risk exposures. Conditional on statistically pre-identified network spillover effects and market and balance sheet information, we define

  1. Managing Risk in Systems Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DePaoli, Marilyn M.; And Others

    Stanford University's use of a risk assessment methodology to improve the management of systems development projects is discussed. After examining the concepts of hazard, peril, and risk as they relate to the system development process, three ways to assess risk are covered: size, structure, and technology. The overall objective for Stanford…

  2. The Simpson's paradox unraveled

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hernán, Miguel A; Clayton, David; Keiding, Niels

    2011-01-01

    Background In a famous article, Simpson described a hypothetical data example that led to apparently paradoxical results. Methods We make the causal structure of Simpson’s example explicit. Results We show how the paradox disappears when the statistical analysis is appropriately guided by subject......-matter knowledge. We also review previous explanations of Simpson’s paradox that attributed it to two distinct phenomena: confounding and non-collapsibility. Conclusion Analytical errors may occur when the problem is stripped of its causal context and analyzed merely in statistical terms....

  3. Bank Size and Systemic Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pais, A.; Stork, P.A.

    2013-01-01

    The global financial crisis that started in mid-2007 illustrates the relevance of systemic risk. One key driver of the systemic instability that materialised in the crisis was the elevated level of stress in large banks. We use EVT to analyse the effect of size on banks' univariate and systemic risk

  4. Disparities in Cardiovascular Disease and Type 2 Diabetes Risk Factors in Blacks and Whites: Dissecting Racial Paradox of Metabolic Syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kwame Osei

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Cardiovascular diseases (CVD remain as the leading cause of mortality in the western world and have become a major health threat for developing countries. There are several risk factors that account for the CVD and the associated mortality. These include genetics, type 2 diabetes (T2DM, obesity, physical inactivity, hypertension, and abnormal lipids and lipoproteins. The constellation of these risk factors has been termed metabolic syndrome (MetS. MetS varies among racial and ethnic populations. Thus, race and ethnicity account for some of the differences in the MetS and the associated CVD and T2DM. Furthermore, the relationships among traditional metabolic parameters and CVD differ, especially when comparing Black and White populations. In this regard, the greater CVD in Blacks than Whites have been partly attributed to other non-traditional CVD risk factors, such as subclinical inflammation (C-reactive protein, homocysteine, increased low-density lipoprotein oxidation, lipoprotein a, adiponectin, and plasminogen activator inhibitor-1, etc. Thus, to understand CVD and T2DM differences in Blacks and Whites with MetS, it is essential to explore the contributions of both traditional and non-traditional CVD and T2DM risk factors in Blacks of African ancestry and Whites of Europoid ancestry. Therefore, in this mini review, we propose that non-traditional risk factors should be integrated in defining MetS as a predictor of CVD and T2DM in Blacks in the African diaspora in future studies.

  5. The APOE paradox: do attentional control differences in mid-adulthood reflect risk of late-life cognitive decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lancaster, Claire; Tabet, Naji; Rusted, Jennifer

    2016-12-01

    Possession of an Apolipoprotein E (APOE) e4 allele is an established risk factor for Alzheimer's disease, whereas the less commonly studied e2 variant is premised to offer some protection. This research explores the purported deleterious-protective dichotomy of APOE variants on attentional control in mid-adulthood. Sixty-six volunteers, aged 45-55 years, completed 3 tasks that provided complementary measures of attentional control: prospective memory, sustained attention, and inhibition. Performance was compared between e2 carriers, e4 carriers, and e3 homozygotes (the population norm). Carriers of the e4 allele showed subtle disadvantages, compared with the e3 group, in accuracy of Stroop task and prospective memory performance. Contrary to expectations, e2 carriers showed performance disadvantages in sustained attention. The finding of detrimental effects in attentional control for both e4 and e2 complicates the current model that proposes opposing effects of these variants on later-life cognition. Future research is needed to understand how cognitive differences develop with increasing age, and the physiological mechanisms that underpin these changes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Paradoxes of aging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blagosklonny, Mikhail V

    2007-12-15

    Insightful articles by Kirkwood and other outstanding scientists reveal paradoxes of aging. The source of paradoxes is an assumption that aging is caused by random, cumulative molecular damage. Here I demonstrate that a concept of TOR-driven program-like aging almost automatically resolves eleven paradoxes of aging. This article discusses why the accumulation of molecular damage does not limit life span, why calorie restriction and inhibition of protein synthesis extend life span, why the non-existing 'program' for aging is nevertheless robust, why a key gene for aging cannot be found by knocking it out, why low insulin is associated with good health but low insulin response with bad health, why aging is not a disease but can be treated as a disease, why 'healthy' aging is slow aging, and how we know that calorie restriction actually slows aging in humans.

  7. Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — EPA?s Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) is a compilation of electronic reports on specific substances found in the environment and their potential to cause...

  8. Dynamical systems probabilistic risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Denman, Matthew R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Ames, Arlo Leroy [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2014-03-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is the primary tool used to risk-inform nuclear power regulatory and licensing activities. Risk-informed regulations are intended to reduce inherent conservatism in regulatory metrics (e.g., allowable operating conditions and technical specifications) which are built into the regulatory framework by quantifying both the total risk profile as well as the change in the risk profile caused by an event or action (e.g., in-service inspection procedures or power uprates). Dynamical Systems (DS) analysis has been used to understand unintended time-dependent feedbacks in both industrial and organizational settings. In dynamical systems analysis, feedback loops can be characterized and studied as a function of time to describe the changes to the reliability of plant Structures, Systems and Components (SSCs). While DS has been used in many subject areas, some even within the PRA community, it has not been applied toward creating long-time horizon, dynamic PRAs (with time scales ranging between days and decades depending upon the analysis). Understanding slowly developing dynamic effects, such as wear-out, on SSC reliabilities may be instrumental in ensuring a safely and reliably operating nuclear fleet. Improving the estimation of a plant's continuously changing risk profile will allow for more meaningful risk insights, greater stakeholder confidence in risk insights, and increased operational flexibility.

  9. The Amazon's energetic paradox

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, Marcos Vinicius Miranda da; Bermann, Celio

    1999-01-01

    The main energy sources in Amazon region are hydroelectric, biomass, and natural gas. Although abundance of these resources, the energy consumption in this region is one of the most low of Brazil. The article overviews this paradox. In this context, economical, geopolitical, and technical aspects are presented

  10. Adventures in Paradox

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynch, Pip; Moore, Kevin

    2004-01-01

    The popularity of adventure recreation and adventure education has arisen, in part, from an assumption that adventure experiences are radically different from those of everyday life in modern societies. A paradox previously pointed out is that those seeking adventurous experiences often make use of technical and technological prosthetics, thus…

  11. A Hydrostatic Paradox Revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganci, Salvatore

    2012-01-01

    This paper revisits a well-known hydrostatic paradox, observed when turning upside down a glass partially filled with water and covered with a sheet of light material. The phenomenon is studied in its most general form by including the mass of the cover. A historical survey of this experiment shows that a common misunderstanding of the phenomenon…

  12. The Hydrostatic Paradox.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Alpha E.

    1995-01-01

    Presents an example demonstrating the quantitative resolution of the hydrostatic paradox which is the realization that the force due to fluid pressure on the bottom of a vessel can be considerably greater or considerably less than the weight of the fluid in the vessel. (JRH)

  13. The happiness paradox

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bollen, Johan; Gonçalves, Bruno; Leemput, van de Ingrid; Ruan, Guangchen

    2017-01-01

    Most individuals in social networks experience a so-called Friendship Paradox: they are less popular than their friends on average. This effect may explain recent findings that widespread social network media use leads to reduced happiness. However the relation between popularity and happiness is

  14. The nuclear paradox

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eibenschutz, J.

    1989-01-01

    In this work it is discussed the nuclear paradox. One side, the nuclear power is important for technological development, on the other hand, it has been frequently questioned by society. It is pointed out as well, that many other factors are more dangerous to man such as environment polution. (A.C.A.S.)

  15. The Paradox of Analogy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Botting

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available I will show that there is a type of analogical reasoning that instantiates a pattern of reasoning in confirmation theory that is considered at best paradoxical and at worst fatal to the entire syntactical approach to confirmation and explanation. However, I hope to elaborate conditions under which this is a sound (although not necessarily strong method of reasoning.

  16. New physics and paradox

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van der Spuy, E.

    1983-01-01

    Conflict between the finite and infinite in theoretical physics often results in paradox. By measuring phenomena for which such conflict exists, physicists may be able to discover in each case the basis of the conflict and thus may eventually reformulate physical laws

  17. Integrated risk information system (IRIS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tuxen, L. [Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC (United States)

    1990-12-31

    The Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) is an electronic information system developed by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) containing information related to health risk assessment. IRIS is the Agency`s primary vehicle for communication of chronic health hazard information that represents Agency consensus following comprehensive review by intra-Agency work groups. The original purpose for developing IRIS was to provide guidance to EPA personnel in making risk management decisions. This original purpose for developing IRIS was to guidance to EPA personnel in making risk management decisions. This role has expanded and evolved with wider access and use of the system. IRIS contains chemical-specific information in summary format for approximately 500 chemicals. IRIS is available to the general public on the National Library of Medicine`s Toxicology Data Network (TOXNET) and on diskettes through the National Technical Information Service (NTIS).

  18. Obesity Paradox in the Course of Cerebrovascular Diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brzecka, Anna; Ejma, Maria

    2015-01-01

    Obesity remains an important risk factor of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases. However, it has been observed that increased body fat and body mass index predicted longer survival after the occurrence of a cardiovascular event. This observation has been named the obesity paradox. Initially, the term obesity paradox referred to the observation of the better outcome of cardiovascular diseases, such as heart failure and coronary heart disease, in obese patients as compared to underweight and normal-weight patients. Recently, similar, although fewer, observations confirm the occurrence of the obesity paradox in patients with acute cerebrovascular diseases. The underlying reasons for the protective effects of excessive body fat tissue against the consequences of acute cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases are poorly understood. The effect of preconditioning may be associated with the obesity paradox. The issue of the correlation between obesity and better survival of patients with cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases still remains largely unexplored. Debates for and against the obesity paradox continue.

  19. Risk assessment in transportation systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Młyńczak Marek

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents problems of hazard identification in transportation systems, where not only field of action is large but also cause-consequences relations between failure causes and losses are distant in time and space. It is observed in transportation systems of goods and passengers, systems of water, gas, oil distribution and electro-energetic nets. Proposed systemic approach based on system elements classification on active (casual and passive ones (affected. There are described concepts of vulnerability (damageability, resilience (ability of recovering and risk controlling by introducing safety measures to undesired event chain.

  20. Systemic risk in banking ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haldane, Andrew G; May, Robert M

    2011-01-20

    In the run-up to the recent financial crisis, an increasingly elaborate set of financial instruments emerged, intended to optimize returns to individual institutions with seemingly minimal risk. Essentially no attention was given to their possible effects on the stability of the system as a whole. Drawing analogies with the dynamics of ecological food webs and with networks within which infectious diseases spread, we explore the interplay between complexity and stability in deliberately simplified models of financial networks. We suggest some policy lessons that can be drawn from such models, with the explicit aim of minimizing systemic risk.

  1. Professions, paradoxes and organizing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juel Jacobsen, Alice

    an ethnographic approach and a concept of paradox as an exploring lens, the paper investigates the micro processes at work. The results of the empirical research point to challenging basic assumptions generated by the classical professions’ theory of autonomous and self-reliant professions. The paper contributes......This paper empirically investigates organizational change in the making as it is constructed in the interaction between managers and professions in a school setting. The empirical basis is three Danish upper secondary schools, all in the process of translating a school reform into practice. Using...... to clarify the particular tensions and paradoxes that emerge in the relational management processes and adds to our understanding of management of professions in schools....

  2. On a paradox of probability theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stuart, C.I.J.M.

    1989-01-01

    Costa de Beauregard's proposal concerning physical retrocausality has been shown to fail on two crucial points. However, it is argued that his proposal still merits serious attention. The argument arises from showing that his proposal reveals a paradox involving relations between conditional probabilities, statistical correlations and reciprocal causalities of the type exhibited by cooperative dynamics in physical systems. 4 refs. (Author)

  3. Paradoxes in Biodiversity Conservation

    OpenAIRE

    David Pearce

    2005-01-01

    Biodiversity is important for human wellbeing, but it is declining. Measures to conserve biodiversity are essential but may be a waste of effort if several paradoxes are not addressed. The highest levels of diversity are in nations least able to practise effective conservation. The flow of funds to international biodiversity conservation appears trivial when compared to the scale of biodiversity loss. International agreements may not actually protect or conserve more than what would have been...

  4. The bosonic birthday paradox

    OpenAIRE

    Arkhipov, Alex; Kuperberg, Greg

    2011-01-01

    We motivate and prove a version of the birthday paradox for $k$ identical bosons in $n$ possible modes. If the bosons are in the uniform mixed state, also called the maximally mixed quantum state, then we need $k \\sim \\sqrt{n}$ bosons to expect two in the same state, which is smaller by a factor of $\\sqrt{2}$ than in the case of distinguishable objects (boltzmannons). While the core result is elementary, we generalize the hypothesis and ...

  5. The Paradoxes of Liberalism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thompson, Grahame

    2011-01-01

    Jakob Vestergaard has produced one of the most telling analyses of the international financial architecture by deploying a broadly Foucauldian framework that invokes a novel description of neo-liberal governance, one organized around discipline, conditional exceptions and the pursuit of a ‘proper...... economy’. This review both welcomes but challenges some of Vestergaard's analysis. In so doing it explores further the paradoxes of liberalism and the fate of sovereignty in the current international context....

  6. An alternative resolution to the Mansuripur paradox

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redfern, Francis

    2016-04-01

    In 2013 an article published online by the journal Science declared that the paradox proposed by Masud Mansuripur was resolved. This paradox concerns a point charge-Amperian magnetic dipole system as seen in a frame of reference where they are at rest and one in which they are moving. In the latter frame an electric dipole appears on the magnetic dipole. A torque is then exerted upon the electric dipole by the point charge, a torque that is not observed in the at-rest frame. Mansuripur points out this violates the relativity principle and suggests the Lorentz force responsible for the torque be replaced by the Einstein-Laub force. The resolution of the paradox reported by Science, based on numerous papers in the physics literature, preserves the Lorentz force but depends on the concept of hidden momentum. Here I propose a different resolution based on the overlooked fact that the charge-magnetic dipole system contains linear and angular electromagnetic field momentum. The time rate of change of the field angular-momentum in the frame through which the system is moving cancels that due to the charge-electric dipole interaction. From this point of view hidden momentum is not needed in the resolution of the paradox.

  7. Environmental asset management: Risk management systems

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Naudé, Brian

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available purposes until the assets are exhausted. This paper addresses elements of environmental crime and the risk management strategies as part of EAP, including risk management system functions. A unique implemented risk management system in the Kruger National...

  8. Normative engineering risk management systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Regan, P.J.; Pate-Cornell, M.E.

    1997-01-01

    This paper describes the design of a normative engineering risk management system that performs four activities: diagnosis, dynamic evolution, decision making, and information gathering. The problem domain can be represented as a partially-observable Markov decision process (POMDP). By decomposing the POMDP into a separate model for each of the four activities, the system enables highly asymmetric models to be tailored to a particular situation. Our goal is to construct a normative system that creates an accurate, concise decision model and that provides timely, reliable results. Conserved model components are constructed at design time whereas unique features are customized at run time. For run-time model components, human guidance is used sparingly to refine the decision model. Customized asymmetry is most extreme for information gathering. An application to the management of fire risks on board offshore oil platforms, with particular emphasis on gas leaks, illustrates the concepts

  9. Systemic Risk, Bank's Capital Buffer, and Leverage

    OpenAIRE

    Wibowo, Buddi

    2017-01-01

    This paper measures individual bank's impact on banking systemic risk and examines the effect of individual bank's capital buffer and leverage to bank's systemic risk impact in Indonesia during 2010-2014. Using Merton's distance-to-default to measure systemic risk, the study shows a significant negative relationship between bank's capital buffer and systemic risk. High capital buffer tends to lowering bank's impact on systemic risk. Bank's leverage level also influences its contribution to sy...

  10. Systems and systemic risk in finance and economics

    OpenAIRE

    Jean-Pierre Zigrand

    2014-01-01

    This paper examines the concept of systemic risk and provides an intuitive account of the economic thought on systems and the development of the notion of systemic risk. It is illustrated by putting the ideas of system, systemic risk and endogenous risk in a historial perspective.

  11. Barn and Pole Paradox: Revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cacioppo, Robert; Gangopadhyaya, Asim

    2012-01-01

    Paradoxes have played great instructive roles in many cultures. They provide an excellent paradigm for teaching concepts that require deep reflection. In this article, the authors present two different paradoxes related to the length contraction in special relativity and explain their resolution. They hope that these two Gedanken experiments and…

  12. Lymphoma risk in systemic lupus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bernatsky, Sasha; Ramsey-Goldman, Rosalind; Joseph, Lawrence

    2014-01-01

    to cyclophosphamide and to higher cumulative steroids in lymphoma cases than the cancer-free controls. CONCLUSIONS: In this large SLE sample, there was a suggestion of higher lymphoma risk with exposure to cyclophosphamide and high cumulative steroids. Disease activity itself was not clearly associated with lymphoma......OBJECTIVE: To examine disease activity versus treatment as lymphoma risk factors in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). METHODS: We performed case-cohort analyses within a multisite SLE cohort. Cancers were ascertained by regional registry linkages. Adjusted HRs for lymphoma were generated...... (SLEDAI-2K) over time, and drugs were treated both categorically (ever/never) and as estimated cumulative doses. RESULTS: We studied 75 patients with lymphoma (72 non-Hodgkin, three Hodgkin) and 4961 cancer-free controls. Most lymphomas were of B-cell origin. As is seen in the general population, lymphoma...

  13. Assessing the role of detrital zircon sorting on provenance interpretations in an ancient fluvial system using paleohydraulics - Permian Cutler Group, Paradox Basin, Utah and Colorado

    Science.gov (United States)

    Findlay, C. P., III; Ewing, R. C.; Perez, N. D.

    2017-12-01

    Detrital zircon age signatures used in provenance studies are assumed to be representative of entire catchments from which the sediment was derived, but the extent to which hydraulic sorting can bias provenance interpretations is poorly constrained. Sediment and mineral sorting occurs with changes in hydraulic conditions driven by both allogenic and autogenic processes. Zircon is sorted from less dense minerals due to the difference in density, and any age dependence on zircon size could potentially bias provenance interpretations. In this study, a coupled paleohydraulic and geochemical provenance approach is used to identify changes in paleohydraulic conditions and relate them to spatial variations in provenance signatures from samples collected along an approximately time-correlative source-to-sink pathway in the Permian Cutler Group of the Paradox Basin. Samples proximal to the uplift have a paleoflow direction to the southwest. In the medial basin, paleocurrent direction indicates salt movement caused fluvial pathways divert to the north and northwest on the flanks of anticlines. Channel depth, flow velocity, and discharge calculations were derived from field measurements of grain size and dune and bar cross-stratification indicate that competency of the fluvial system decreased from proximal to the medial basin by up to a factor of 12. Based upon the paleohydraulic calculations, zircon size fractionation would occur along the transect such that the larger zircons are removed from the system prior to reaching the medial basin. Analysis of the size and age distribution of zircons from the proximal and distal fluvial system of the Cutler Group tests if this hydraulic sorting affects the expected Uncompahgre Uplift age distribution.

  14. CDC Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) is a state-based system of health surveys that collects information on health risk behaviors, preventive...

  15. Paradoxes in aerohydrodynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Yershin, Shakhbaz A

    2017-01-01

    This book, on the general topic of hydroaerodynamics, investigates a number of exciting applications in this field, addressing specifically issues that allow seemingly paradoxical issues to be dealt with. The first part is devoted to the study of channel flows, in particular the lateral flow of a viscous and viscous-plastic liquid in a ring channel formed by coaxial cylinders. Specifically, the problem of dissipation of mechanical energy in channel flows of highly viscous liquids is addressed and solved. Furthermore, the mechanism leading to hydrodynamic erosion in intra-field pipelines (known as "channelized effect") is identified. Subsequently, a theory for channel flows with mass transfer through porous walls is developed. In the second part, viscous liquid free flows (jets) are investigated. In particular, a dispersion law for turbulent flow is derived and the existence of dynamic invariance in wake flows of variable density is demonstrated. The third part presents new insights from both theoretical and e...

  16. Plotting Gothic: A Paradox

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen Murray

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The paradox of the title is that while most historians of medieval architecture agree that a combination of geometric and arithmetic methods was generally used to lay out a medieval church, there has been little consensus on the specifics of the process in relation to the design of any particular edifice. I begin by identifying four premises which underlie the debate. I then ask whether the new technologies — laser scanning and computer assisted design/drafting applications — can help. A case study uses newly generated point cloud data from a laser scan of the choir of Beauvais Cathedral. Finally, the notion of ‘plotting’ introduces essential sociological, anthropological and rhetorical dimensions. In the spirit of Roland Barthes ('Le plaisir du texte' and Peter Brooks ('Reading for the Plot', we can understand the urgency with which the architectural historian may seek to unscramble the hidden codes of the building as compulsive ‘reading for the plot’.

  17. Mimesis, fiction, paradoxes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Françoise Lavocat

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Les théories contemporaines de la fiction, comme les poétiques de la Renaissance, privilégient une conception de la mimesis fondée sur la vraisemblance : la démonstration du profit cognitif et moral de la fiction passe toujours par une définition de l’imitation (de quelque façon qu’on la définisse fondée sur la rationalité. L’auteur de cet article examine tout d’abord le statut des contradictions et de l’impossible chez quelques théoriciens actuels (principalement J.-M. Schaeffer, M.-L. Ryan, L. Doležel et poéticiens du 16e siècle (L. Castelvetro et F. Patrizi. Sont ensuite étudiées la forme et la fonction que prend l’impossible dans trois fictions narratives de la Renaissance. L’hypothèse majeure qui est défendue est que ces paradoxes permettent de penser le non-existant, dans la continuité de la scolastique médiévale et en relation avec une problématique religieuse, sérieuse ou parodique. Par là même, et en raison de leur auto-référentialité constitutive, les paradoxes inscrivent dans la fiction une réflexion sur elle-même qui n’a rien d’une apologie. La pensée de la fiction s’articule en définitive de façon bien différente dans les théories et dans les fictions elles-mêmes.Like Renaissance poetics, contemporary theories of fiction do favour a conception of mimesis based on likelihood. In order to underscore the benefits of fiction, in terms of cognition or ethics, both ancient and present-day authors usually identify imitation (however this is understood as a kind of rationality. The aim of this article is to question the status of contradictions and impossibilities, first in current theories of fiction (J-M Schaeffer, M.-L. Ryan, L. Doležel, then in two sixteenth century comments of Aristotle (by L. Castelvetro and F. Patrizi. In the following steps, forms and functions of the impossible are studied in three narratives of the Renaissance. The main hypothesis here is the following: in

  18. The lunar apatite paradox.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyce, J W; Tomlinson, S M; McCubbin, F M; Greenwood, J P; Treiman, A H

    2014-04-25

    Recent discoveries of water-rich lunar apatite are more consistent with the hydrous magmas of Earth than the otherwise volatile-depleted rocks of the Moon. Paradoxically, this requires H-rich minerals to form in rocks that are otherwise nearly anhydrous. We modeled existing data from the literature, finding that nominally anhydrous minerals do not sufficiently fractionate H from F and Cl to generate H-rich apatite. Hydrous apatites are explained as the products of apatite-induced low magmatic fluorine, which increases the H/F ratio in melt and apatite. Mare basalts may contain hydrogen-rich apatite, but lunar magmas were most likely poor in hydrogen, in agreement with the volatile depletion that is both observed in lunar rocks and required for canonical giant-impact models of the formation of the Moon.

  19. Paradoxical Herniation in the Postcraniectomy Syndrome: Report and Literature Update.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos-Zúñiga, Rodrigo; Mares-Pais, Roberto; Gutiérrez-Avila, Oscar; Saldaña-Koppel, Daniel A

    2016-03-01

    Introduction The decompressive craniectomy is a surgical strategy widely used with specific criteria to control the refractory intracranial pressure (ICP). However, it is important to warn about the presence of a postcraniectomy syndrome and analyze the risk-benefit on a long term. Case Report A 72-year-old male patient diagnosed with a subarachnoid hemorrhage secondary to the rupture of an anterior circulation aneurysm that develops vasospasm, secondary ischemia, and edema with signs of herniation that required a decompressive craniectomy on a first step. Afterwards, the aneurysm was approached and he consequently developed hydrocephaly. A ventriculoperitoneal shunt is installed, contralateral to the craniectomy, and progressive sinking of the skin flap, there is neurological deterioration and paradoxical herniation. Its association with the clinical deterioration by bronchoaspiration did not allow the cranioplasty to resolve the ICP decompensation. Conclusions The paradoxical herniation as part of the postcraniectomy syndrome is an increasingly common condition identified in adult patients with cortical atrophy, and who have also been treated with ventricular shunt systems. Timely cranioplasty represents the ideal therapeutic plan once the compromise from the mass effect has resolved to avoid complications derived from the decompressive craniectomy per se.

  20. Fantaisies et paradoxes mathématiques

    CERN Document Server

    Northrop, E P

    1964-01-01

    Qu'est-ce qu'un paradoxe ? ; quelques casse-tête simples (paradoxes pour tous) ; le puissant petit 2 et autres miracles... (paradoxes en arithmétique) ; je le vois, je ne le vois plus... (paradoxes en géométrie) ; tu ne diviseras pas par zéro... (sophismes algébriques) ; le voir, c'est le croire. Peut-être... (sophismes géométriques) ; toujours plus loin... (paradoxes de l'infini) ; combien de chances ? (paradoxes en probabilité) ; cercles vicieux (paradoxes en logique).

  1. KM PARADOX ON CITY MANAGEMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Sebastian-Ion CEPTUREANU; Eduard-Gabriel CEPTUREANU

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents some thoughts about a relative paradox of knowledge management: both a well established area of science and one of the managerial science domains still under scrutiny for several important inconsistencies and misunderstandings.

  2. Tank waste remediation system risk management list

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collard, L.B.

    1995-01-01

    The Tank Waste Remedation System (TWRS) Risk Management List and it's subset of critical risks, the Critical Risk Management List, provide a tool to senior RL and WHC management (Level-1 and -2) to manage programmatic risks that may significantly impact the TWRS program. The programmatic risks include cost, schedule, and performance risks. Performance risk includes technical risk, supportability risk (such as maintainability and availability), and external risk (i.e., beyond program control, for example, changes in regulations). The risk information includes a description, its impacts, as evaluation of the likelihood, consequences and risk value, possible mitigating actions, and responsible RL and WHC managers. The issues that typically form the basis for the risks are presented in a separate table and the affected functions are provided on the management lists

  3. Consciousness and the "Causal Paradox"

    OpenAIRE

    Velmans, Max

    1996-01-01

    Viewed from a first-person perspective consciousness appears to be necessary for complex, novel human activity - but viewed from a third-person perspective consciousness appears to play no role in the activity of brains, producing a "causal paradox". To resolve this paradox one needs to distinguish consciousness of processing from consciousness accompanying processing or causing processing. Accounts of consciousness/brain causal interactions switch between first- and third-person perspectives...

  4. Sleep Education for Paradoxical Insomnia

    OpenAIRE

    Geyer, James D.; Lichstein, Kenneth L.; Ruiter, Megan E.; Ward, L. Charles; Carney, Paul R.; Dillard, Stephenie C.

    2011-01-01

    This case study series investigated a new treatment for paradoxical insomnia patients as there is no standard treatment for this patient group at this time. Four paradoxical insomnia patients had a polysomnography (PSG) sleep study, an unsuccessful brief course of behavioral treatment for insomnia, and then a novel sleep education treatment comprising review of their PSG with video and exploration of the discrepancy between their reported and observed sleep experience. Two patients responded ...

  5. Paradoxical therapy in conversion disorder

    OpenAIRE

    ATAOĞLU, Ahmet

    1998-01-01

    Paradoxical therapy consists of suggesting that the patient intentionally engages in the unwanted behaviour, such as performing complusive ritual or bringing on a conversion attack. In this study paradoxical intention (PI) was used with to half of the patients with conversion disorders, while the other half were treated with diazepam in order to examine the efficiency of the PI versus diazepam in conversion disorder. Patients treated with PI appeared to have a greater improvement r...

  6. Altruism and the Transfer Paradox

    OpenAIRE

    Hamada, Kojun

    2011-01-01

    This paper examines whether altruism causes the transfer paradox in the model with two countries and two goods when the consumers of the donor and recipient countries have altruistic utility. We demonstrate that if the Walrasian stability condition is satisfied in the general equilibrium, the transfer paradox can never take place irrespective of the definition of utility. The result suggests that the motivation for transfer cannot beexplained by the donor's enrichment because it is not caused...

  7. Evolving African attitudes to European education: Resistance, pervert effects of the single system paradox, and the ubuntu framework for renewal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assié-Lumumba, N'Dri Thérèse

    2016-02-01

    This paper is a reflection that critically examines the dynamics of education and the struggle by African people for freedom, control of the mind, self-definition and the right to determine their own destiny from the start of colonial rule to the present. The primary methodological approach is historical structuralism, which stipulates that social reality and facts are determined and created by social agents within structural and historical contingencies. It addresses some of the most powerful challenges and contradictions that explain the ineffectiveness of numerous post-independence reforms, and presents the arguments for relevance and use of African languages, for instance, that have been made since the 1960s. The first section of the paper deals with the colonial imperatives for setting new education systems in the colonised societies of Africa and the initial attitudes of the Africans towards colonial education. The second section critically examines the evolving meanings of Western education in Europeanising African societies, the articulation of their rationale and the mechanism for resistance. It analyses the turning point when Africans began to embrace European education and demand it in the colonial and post-independence era. The third section addresses the roots of the inadequacies of received post-colonial education and the imperative of deconstruction and re-appropriation of African education using an ubuntu framework for an African renewal.

  8. River System Behaviour Effects on Flood Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schweckendiek, T.; Vrouwenvelder, A.C.W.M.; Van Mierlo, M.C.L.M.; Calle, E.O.F.; Courage, W.M.G.

    2008-01-01

    A risk-based safety approach is indispensable to support decision-making on flood protection strategies and measures. Hitherto the effects of river system behaviour on flood risk have usually been neglected. River system behaviour refers to the fact that the flood risk (or safety) of a particular

  9. River system behaviour effects on flood risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schweckendiek, T.; Vrouwenvelder, A.C.W.M.; Mierlo, M.C.L.M. van; Calle, E.O.F.; Courage, W.M.G.

    2009-01-01

    A risk-based safety approach is indispensable to support decision-making on flood protection strategies and measures. Hitherto the effects of river system behaviour on flood risk have usually been neglected. River system behaviour refers to the fact that the flood risk (or safety) of a particular

  10. Genetic Susceptibility and Predictors of Paradoxical Reactions in Buruli Ulcer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yves Thierry Barogui

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Buruli ulcer (BU is the third most frequent mycobacterial disease in immunocompetent persons after tuberculosis and leprosy. During the last decade, eight weeks of antimicrobial treatment has become the standard of care. This treatment may be accompanied by transient clinical deterioration, known as paradoxical reaction. We investigate the incidence and the risks factors associated with paradoxical reaction in BU.The lesion size of participants was assessed by careful palpation and recorded by serial acetate sheet tracings. For every time point, surface area was compared with the previous assessment. All patients received antimicrobial treatment for 8 weeks. Serum concentration of 25-hydroxyvitamin D, the primary indicator of vitamin D status, was determined in duplex for blood samples at baseline by a radioimmunoassay. We genotyped four polymorphisms in the SLC11A1 gene, previously associated with susceptibility to BU. For testing the association of genetic variants with paradoxical responses, we used a binary logistic regression analysis with the occurrence of a paradoxical response as the dependent variable.Paradoxical reaction occurred in 22% of the patients; the reaction was significantly associated with trunk localization (p = .039 by Χ(2, larger lesions (p = .021 by Χ(2 and genetic factors. The polymorphisms 3'UTR TGTG ins/ins (OR 7.19, p < .001 had a higher risk for developing paradoxical reaction compared to ins/del or del/del polymorphisms.Paradoxical reactions are common in BU. They are associated with trunk localization, larger lesions and polymorphisms in the SLC11A1 gene.

  11. The paradox of comfort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morse, J M; Bottorff, J L; Hutchinson, S

    1995-01-01

    Patients who had experienced major illness, surgery, or trauma were asked to "tell their stories." Using a phenomenological method, eight themes emerged that reflected the experience of the lived body (corporeality) associated with discomfort. These were the dis-eased body, the disobedient body, the deceiving body, the vulnerable body, the violated body, the resigned body, the enduring body, and the betraying body. To patients, comfort is not an ultimate state of peace and serenity, but rather the relief, even temporary relief, from the most demanding discomfort. Illness and injury place patients' bodies into the foreground, dominating their attention and disrupting their accustomed orientation to the world. Thus, an understanding of patient comfort that is linked with discomfort and empowers or strengthens patients in relation to their bodies provides important insight. The authors argue that attaining comfort is a paradox best understood by reflecting not on the concept of comfort per se, but on its converse. This supports, rather than negates, the construct of comfort as the goal of nursing care.

  12. Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS)

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS) monitors 6 types of health-risk behaviors that contribute to the leading causes of death and disability among...

  13. Molecular pathological epidemiology gives clues to paradoxical findings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishihara, Reiko; VanderWeele, Tyler J; Shibuya, Kenji; Mittleman, Murray A; Wang, Molin; Field, Alison E; Giovannucci, Edward; Lochhead, Paul; Ogino, Shuji

    2015-10-01

    A number of epidemiologic studies have described what appear to be paradoxical associations, where an incongruous relationship is observed between a certain well-established risk factor for disease incidence and favorable clinical outcome among patients with that disease. For example, the "obesity paradox" represents the association between obesity and better survival among patients with a certain disease such as coronary heart disease. Paradoxical observations cause vexing clinical and public health problems as they raise questions on causal relationships and hinder the development of effective interventions. Compelling evidence indicates that pathogenic processes encompass molecular alterations within cells and the microenvironment, influenced by various exogenous and endogenous exposures, and that interpersonal heterogeneity in molecular pathology and pathophysiology exists among patients with any given disease. In this article, we introduce methods of the emerging integrative interdisciplinary field of molecular pathological epidemiology (MPE), which is founded on the unique disease principle and disease continuum theory. We analyze and decipher apparent paradoxical findings, utilizing the MPE approach and available literature data on tumor somatic genetic and epigenetic characteristics. Through our analyses in colorectal cancer, renal cell carcinoma, and glioblastoma (malignant brain tumor), we can readily explain paradoxical associations between disease risk factors and better prognosis among disease patients. The MPE paradigm and approach can be applied to not only neoplasms but also various non-neoplastic diseases where there exists indisputable ubiquitous heterogeneity of pathogenesis and molecular pathology. The MPE paradigm including consideration of disease heterogeneity plays an essential role in advancements of precision medicine and public health.

  14. Individual Risk Management for Digital Payment Systems

    OpenAIRE

    M. Reichenbach; T. Grzebiela; T. Koltzsch; I. Pippow

    2002-01-01

    Despite existing security standards and security technologies, such as secure hardware, gaps between users’ demand for security and the security offered by a payment system can still remain. These security gaps imply risks for users. In this paper, we introduce a framework for the management of those risks. As a result, we present an instrument enabling users to evaluate eventual risks related with digital payment systems and to handle these risks with technical and economic instruments.

  15. On Hardy's paradox, weak measurements, and multitasking diagrams

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meglicki, Zdzislaw, E-mail: gustav@indiana.edu [Indiana University, Office of the Vice President for Information Technology, 601 E. Kirkwood Ave., Room 116, Bloomington, IN 47405-1223 (United States)

    2011-07-04

    We discuss Hardy's paradox and weak measurements by using multitasking diagrams, which are introduced to illustrate the progress of quantum probabilities through the double interferometer system. We explain how Hardy's paradox is avoided and elaborate on the outcome of weak measurements in this context. -- Highlights: → Hardy's paradox explained and eliminated. → Weak measurements: what is really measured? → Multitasking diagrams: introduced and used to discuss quantum mechanical processes.

  16. Laying the ghost of twin paradox

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Popović Marko

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Someone's true age is not written in his ID, but in his biomarkers. Aging process is not caused by time passing, but by thermodynamically laws. Entropy, extent of metabolic reaction, and temperature are Lorentz invariant, so these facts make twin paradox impossible because there is no way for one twin to age slower than the other even if the time in his frame is dilated. Entropy is the function of state, not time. So as much as standard thermodynamics concerns, the path between two points in space is equivalent to the path between two states. Whether the point B is reached by moving faster using the longer way (with time dilatation, or slower by using shortcut (without time dilatation, the state of the system after completing the road should be the same. This is supported by the fact that when two twins reach the same space-time point (point B in which the state parameters are the same. If we use entropy as an age parameter, then both twins have the same entropy value and are exactly the same biological age. Therefore, the twin paradox is a logical mistake based on wrong first premise. Bergson symmetry is not necessary any more to explain the impossibility of twin paradox.

  17. Tank waste remediation system risk management plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zimmerman, B.D.

    1998-01-01

    The purpose of the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Risk Management Plan is to describe a consistent approach to risk management such that TWRS Project risks are identified and managed to achieve TWRS Project success. The Risk Management Plan implements the requirements of the Tank Waste Remediation System Systems Engineering Management Plan in the area of risk management. Figure ES-1 shows the relationship of the TWRS Risk Management Plan to other major TWRS Project documents. As the figure indicates, the Risk Management Plan is a tool used to develop and control TWRS Project work. It provides guidance on how TWRS Project risks will be assessed, analyzed, and handled, and it specifies format and content for the risk management lists, which are a primary product of the risk management process. In many instances, the Risk Management Plan references the TWRS Risk Management Procedure, which provides more detailed discussion of many risk management activities. The TWRS Risk Management Plan describes an ongoing program within the TWRS Project. The Risk Management Plan also provides guidance in support of the TWRS Readiness To-Proceed (RTP) assessment package

  18. Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... School, Whole Community, Whole Child Tools Health Education Curriculum Analysis Tool (HECAT) HECAT FAQs Health Education Teacher ... Button type="submit" value="Submit" /> Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance ...

  19. Paradoxes and Innovation in Family Firms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ingram, Amy E.; Lewis, Marianne W.; Barton, Sid

    2016-01-01

    Scholars stress that family firms are inherently paradoxical, and that tensions, such as tradition versus change, family liquidity versus business growth, and founder control versus successor autonomy, can both inhibit and foster innovation. Further, theorists propose that firms led by paradoxica...... indicate that paradoxical tensions may stymie innovative behavior, but that leaders' paradoxical thinking is positively related to innovative behavior....... thinkers are more likely to manage these tensions and fuel innovative behavior. Leveraging family business and organizational paradox literatures, this multi-stage exploratory study develops measures of paradoxical tensions and paradoxical thinking in family firms, and tests these propositions. Findings...

  20. NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

    2016-01-01

    NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

  1. Systems approach to project risk management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kindinger, J. P. (John P.)

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes the need for better performance in the planning and execution of projects and examines the capabilities of two different project risk analysis methods for improving project performance. A quantitative approach based on concepts and tools adopted from the disciplines of systems analysis, probabilistic risk analysis, and other fields is advocated for managing risk in large and complex research & development projects. This paper also provides an overview of how this system analysis approach for project risk management is being used at Los Alamos National Laboratory along with examples of quantitative risk analysis results and their application to improve project performance.

  2. Managerial challenges within networks: emphasizing the paradox of network participation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jakobsen, Morten

    , maintaining the dynamics within a network seems to be a complex challenge. There is a risk that the network ends up in The Paradox of Network Participation. The desired renewal and flexibility are not utilised because the involved parties preserve the existing networks structure consisting of the same...

  3. Managerial Challenges Within Networks - Emphasizing the Paradox of Network Participation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jakobsen, Morten

    2003-01-01

    , maintaining the dynamics within a network seems to be a complex challenge. There is a risk that the network ends up in The Paradox of Network Participation. The desired renewal and flexibility are not utilised because the involved parties preserve the existing networks structure consisting of the same...

  4. Law of the Minimum paradoxes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorban, Alexander N; Pokidysheva, Lyudmila I; Smirnova, Elena V; Tyukina, Tatiana A

    2011-09-01

    The "Law of the Minimum" states that growth is controlled by the scarcest resource (limiting factor). This concept was originally applied to plant or crop growth (Justus von Liebig, 1840, Salisbury, Plant physiology, 4th edn., Wadsworth, Belmont, 1992) and quantitatively supported by many experiments. Some generalizations based on more complicated "dose-response" curves were proposed. Violations of this law in natural and experimental ecosystems were also reported. We study models of adaptation in ensembles of similar organisms under load of environmental factors and prove that violation of Liebig's law follows from adaptation effects. If the fitness of an organism in a fixed environment satisfies the Law of the Minimum then adaptation equalizes the pressure of essential factors and, therefore, acts against the Liebig's law. This is the the Law of the Minimum paradox: if for a randomly chosen pair "organism-environment" the Law of the Minimum typically holds, then in a well-adapted system, we have to expect violations of this law.For the opposite interaction of factors (a synergistic system of factors which amplify each other), adaptation leads from factor equivalence to limitations by a smaller number of factors.For analysis of adaptation, we develop a system of models based on Selye's idea of the universal adaptation resource (adaptation energy). These models predict that under the load of an environmental factor a population separates into two groups (phases): a less correlated, well adapted group and a highly correlated group with a larger variance of attributes, which experiences problems with adaptation. Some empirical data are presented and evidences of interdisciplinary applications to econometrics are discussed. © Society for Mathematical Biology 2010

  5. The paradox of scientific expertise

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alrøe, Hugo Fjelsted; Noe, Egon

    2011-01-01

    Modern societies depend on a growing production of scientific knowledge, which is based on the functional differentiation of science into still more specialised scientific disciplines and subdisciplines. This is the basis for the paradox of scientific expertise: The growth of science leads to a f...... cross-disciplinary research and in the collective use of different kinds of scientific expertise, and thereby make society better able to solve complex, real-world problems.......Modern societies depend on a growing production of scientific knowledge, which is based on the functional differentiation of science into still more specialised scientific disciplines and subdisciplines. This is the basis for the paradox of scientific expertise: The growth of science leads...... to a fragmentation of scientific expertise. To resolve this paradox, the present paper investigates three hypotheses: 1) All scientific knowledge is perspectival. 2) The perspectival structure of science leads to specific forms of knowledge asymmetries. 3) Such perspectival knowledge asymmetries must be handled...

  6. Four paradoxes about the special theory of relativity

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Xiao-Jun; Chen, Kai; Li, Xiao-Niu; Li, Yong-An

    2016-01-01

    Various paradoxes about the relativity theory have been developed since the birth of this theory. Each paradox somewhat shows people's query about the relativity theory, and solving of each paradox demonstrates the correctness of relativity theory once again. In this paper, four paradoxes about the special theory of relativity are brought forward: displacement paradox, electromagnetic transformation paradox, Doppler paradox and magnetic force paradox. We hope some researchers can reasonably e...

  7. Project risk management in complex petrochemical system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kirin Snežana

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Investigation of risk in complex industrial systems, as well as evaluation of main factors influencing decision making and implementation process using large petrochemical company as an example, has proved the importance of successful project risk management. This is even more emphasized when analyzing systems with complex structure, i.e. with several organizational units. It has been shown that successful risk management requires modern methods, based on adequate application of statistical analysis methods.

  8. The Obesity Paradox and Cardiorespiratory Fitness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul A. McAuley

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Cardiorespiratory fitness as an explanation for the obesity paradox warrants further examination. We evaluated independent and joint associations of cardiorespiratory fitness and adiposity with all-cause mortality in 811 middle-aged (age, 53.3±7.2 years male never smokers without documented cardiopulmonary disease or diabetes from the Veterans Exercise Testing Study (VETS. Cardiorespiratory fitness was quantified in metabolic equivalents (METs using final treadmill speed and grade achieved on a maximal exercise test. Subjects were grouped for analysis by METs: unfit (lowest third and fit (upper two-thirds; and by body mass index (kg/m2: nonobese (18.5−29.9 and obese (≥30.0. Associations of baseline fitness and adiposity measures with all-cause mortality were determined by Cox proportional hazards analysis adjusted for age, ethnicity, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, family history of coronary artery disease, and cardiovascular medication use. In multivariate analysis, mortality risk for obese/fit men did not differ significantly from the nonobese/fit reference group. However, compared to the reference group, nonobese and obese unfit men were 2.2 (=0.01 and 1.9 (=0.03 times more likely to die, respectively. Cardiorespiratory fitness altered the obesity paradox such that mortality risk was lower for both obese and nonobese men who were fit.

  9. The Paradox of Precaution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bechmann, Gotthard

    2009-12-01

    The precautionary principle cannot rid itself of risk. In the area of precaution it re-emerges as the risk of precaution. This is due to the fact that precaution is a disposition of the future which can only be decided in the medium of probability/lack of probability. With this type of calculation, we take advantage of the uncertainty of the future and at the same time our own uncertainty to make decisions in the present that can be confirmed or refuted by future states of the present. We will never reach the safe side since the future as future is inherently uncertain. If we take this realisation as a basis, we see that precaution does not mean creating a future free of risk or danger, but that the precautionary principle is a meta-rule how this basic uncertainty can be, and is, processed communicatively, i.e. at the societal level. On this topic a number of remarks: - There are no apodeictic judgements possible with respect to issues of the future, in particular when these are possible catastrophes. Whoever operates in such cases with true assertions disqualifies himself. As we know, this has ruined the political reputation of scientific experts. - We must further do without consensus on principles or on the priority of certain values. Negotiations on decisions must be formulated and understood in a way that they are compatible with a disagreement on principle. Current coordination is then more important than correspondence in the cognitive and evaluative foundations of the assessment of future. - Communication itself is better set up not as communicative action in the sense of Habermas, but on the contrary as strategic action under conditions of uncertainty, that is we have to stay aware that debates related to the future are social constructions and not true statements. - All in all, the demand for 'participation' should be downplayed in favour of strengthening the right to information in order to able to develop the largest possible number of constructs. - The

  10. The Paradox of Precaution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bechmann, Gotthard [Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe Technik und Umwelt, Inst. fuer Technikfolgeabschaetzung und Systemanalyse (ITAS), Karlsruhe (Germany)], e-mail: bechmann@itas.fzk.de

    2009-12-15

    The precautionary principle cannot rid itself of risk. In the area of precaution it re-emerges as the risk of precaution. This is due to the fact that precaution is a disposition of the future which can only be decided in the medium of probability/lack of probability. With this type of calculation, we take advantage of the uncertainty of the future and at the same time our own uncertainty to make decisions in the present that can be confirmed or refuted by future states of the present. We will never reach the safe side since the future as future is inherently uncertain. If we take this realisation as a basis, we see that precaution does not mean creating a future free of risk or danger, but that the precautionary principle is a meta-rule how this basic uncertainty can be, and is, processed communicatively, i.e. at the societal level. On this topic a number of remarks: - There are no apodeictic judgements possible with respect to issues of the future, in particular when these are possible catastrophes. Whoever operates in such cases with true assertions disqualifies himself. As we know, this has ruined the political reputation of scientific experts. - We must further do without consensus on principles or on the priority of certain values. Negotiations on decisions must be formulated and understood in a way that they are compatible with a disagreement on principle. Current coordination is then more important than correspondence in the cognitive and evaluative foundations of the assessment of future. - Communication itself is better set up not as communicative action in the sense of Habermas, but on the contrary as strategic action under conditions of uncertainty, that is we have to stay aware that debates related to the future are social constructions and not true statements. - All in all, the demand for 'participation' should be downplayed in favour of strengthening the right to information in order to able to develop the largest possible number of

  11. The Paradox of Precaution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bechmann, Gotthard (Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe Technik und Umwelt, Inst. fuer Technikfolgeabschaetzung und Systemanalyse (ITAS), Karlsruhe (Germany)), e-mail: bechmann@itas.fzk.de

    2009-12-15

    The precautionary principle cannot rid itself of risk. In the area of precaution it re-emerges as the risk of precaution. This is due to the fact that precaution is a disposition of the future which can only be decided in the medium of probability/lack of probability. With this type of calculation, we take advantage of the uncertainty of the future and at the same time our own uncertainty to make decisions in the present that can be confirmed or refuted by future states of the present. We will never reach the safe side since the future as future is inherently uncertain. If we take this realisation as a basis, we see that precaution does not mean creating a future free of risk or danger, but that the precautionary principle is a meta-rule how this basic uncertainty can be, and is, processed communicatively, i.e. at the societal level. On this topic a number of remarks: - There are no apodeictic judgements possible with respect to issues of the future, in particular when these are possible catastrophes. Whoever operates in such cases with true assertions disqualifies himself. As we know, this has ruined the political reputation of scientific experts. - We must further do without consensus on principles or on the priority of certain values. Negotiations on decisions must be formulated and understood in a way that they are compatible with a disagreement on principle. Current coordination is then more important than correspondence in the cognitive and evaluative foundations of the assessment of future. - Communication itself is better set up not as communicative action in the sense of Habermas, but on the contrary as strategic action under conditions of uncertainty, that is we have to stay aware that debates related to the future are social constructions and not true statements. - All in all, the demand for 'participation' should be downplayed in favour of strengthening the right to information in order to able to develop the largest possible number of

  12. Risk concepts and energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Otway, H.J.

    1975-01-01

    Many countries are experiencing a period in which traditional values are being questioned; plans for further technological progress are being met by a variety of demands for a closer examination of the benefits and risks of large-scale technologies. In this paper the concepts of risk assessment are introduced and a model is proposed which illustrates the importance of socio-psychological mechanisms in the societal acceptance of technological risks. The research plan of the joint IAEA/IIASA Research Project is outlined: this work is directed toward gaining an improved understanding of how societies judge the acceptability of technologies and how societal attitudes and anticipated responses may be better integrated into the decision-making process. Some preliminary results are reported [fr

  13. Cancer risk in systemic lupus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bernatsky, Sasha; Ramsey-Goldman, Rosalind; Labrecque, Jeremy

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To update estimates of cancer risk in SLE relative to the general population. METHODS: A multisite international SLE cohort was linked with regional tumor registries. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were calculated as the ratio of observed to expected cancers. RESULTS: Across 30 c...

  14. AngioVac Aspiration for Paradoxical Emboli Protection through a Fenestrated Fontan During Central Venous Thrombus Manipulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Hakim, Ramsey; Patel, Komal; Moriarty, John M.

    2015-01-01

    This case reports describes a 39-year-old female with a history of surgically repaired hypoplastic left heart syndrome who presented with a left peripherally inserted central catheter (PICC) with associated large volume subclavian and brachiocephalic vein thrombus. Due to the presence of a right-to-left shunt via a fenestrated Fontan, there was clinical concern for a paradoxical embolism during removal of the PICC. The AngioVac aspiration system was successfully utilized to aspirate thromboemboli from the level of the proximal Glenn shunt during manipulation and removal of the PICC. This is the first reported case to demonstrate the safe and effective use of the AngioVac aspiration system for protection of paradoxical emboli through a cardiac right-to-left shunt during a procedure at high risk for thromboembolism

  15. AngioVac Aspiration for Paradoxical Emboli Protection through a Fenestrated Fontan During Central Venous Thrombus Manipulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Al-Hakim, Ramsey, E-mail: ralhakim@mednet.ucla.edu [University of California, Department of Radiology, Division of Interventional Radiology (United States); Patel, Komal, E-mail: kdpatel@mednet.ucla.edu [University of California, Department of Anesthesiology, Division of Cardiothoracic Anesthesiology (United States); Moriarty, John M., E-mail: jmoriarty@mednet.ucla.edu [University of California, Department of Radiology, Division of Interventional Radiology (United States)

    2015-06-15

    This case reports describes a 39-year-old female with a history of surgically repaired hypoplastic left heart syndrome who presented with a left peripherally inserted central catheter (PICC) with associated large volume subclavian and brachiocephalic vein thrombus. Due to the presence of a right-to-left shunt via a fenestrated Fontan, there was clinical concern for a paradoxical embolism during removal of the PICC. The AngioVac aspiration system was successfully utilized to aspirate thromboemboli from the level of the proximal Glenn shunt during manipulation and removal of the PICC. This is the first reported case to demonstrate the safe and effective use of the AngioVac aspiration system for protection of paradoxical emboli through a cardiac right-to-left shunt during a procedure at high risk for thromboembolism.

  16. Endogenous network of firms and systemic risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Qianting; He, Jianmin; Li, Shouwei

    2018-02-01

    We construct an endogenous network characterized by commercial credit relationships connecting the upstream and downstream firms. Simulation results indicate that the endogenous network model displays a scale-free property which exists in real-world firm systems. In terms of the network structure, with the expansion of the scale of network nodes, the systemic risk increases significantly, while the heterogeneities of network nodes have no effect on systemic risk. As for firm micro-behaviors, including the selection range of trading partners, actual output, labor requirement, price of intermediate products and employee salaries, increase of all these parameters will lead to higher systemic risk.

  17. Analyzing Systemic Risk in the Chinese Banking System

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huang, Qiubin; de Haan, Jakob; Scholtens, Bert

    We examine systemic risk in the Chinese banking system by estimating the conditional value at risk (CoVaR), the marginal expected shortfall (MES), the systemic impact index (SII) and the vulnerability index (VI) for 16 listed banks in China. Although these measures show different patterns, our

  18. Analysing systemic risk in the Chinese banking system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huang, Qiubin; de Haan, Jakob; Scholtens, Lambertus

    2018-01-01

    We examine systemic risk in the Chinese banking system by estimating the conditional value at risk (CoVaR), the marginal expected shortfall (MES), the systemic impact index (SII) and the vulnerability index (VI) for 16 listed banks in China for the 2007-2014 period. We find that these measures show

  19. RAMS (Risk Analysis - Modular System) methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stenner, R.D.; Strenge, D.L.; Buck, J.W. [and others

    1996-10-01

    The Risk Analysis - Modular System (RAMS) was developed to serve as a broad scope risk analysis tool for the Risk Assessment of the Hanford Mission (RAHM) studies. The RAHM element provides risk analysis support for Hanford Strategic Analysis and Mission Planning activities. The RAHM also provides risk analysis support for the Hanford 10-Year Plan development activities. The RAMS tool draws from a collection of specifically designed databases and modular risk analysis methodologies and models. RAMS is a flexible modular system that can be focused on targeted risk analysis needs. It is specifically designed to address risks associated with overall strategy, technical alternative, and `what if` questions regarding the Hanford cleanup mission. RAMS is set up to address both near-term and long-term risk issues. Consistency is very important for any comparative risk analysis, and RAMS is designed to efficiently and consistently compare risks and produce risk reduction estimates. There is a wide range of output information that can be generated by RAMS. These outputs can be detailed by individual contaminants, waste forms, transport pathways, exposure scenarios, individuals, populations, etc. However, they can also be in rolled-up form to support high-level strategy decisions.

  20. Systemic risk: the dynamics of model banking systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    May, Robert M; Arinaminpathy, Nimalan

    2010-05-06

    The recent banking crises have made it clear that increasingly complex strategies for managing risk in individual banks have not been matched by corresponding attention to overall systemic risks. We explore some simple mathematical caricatures for 'banking ecosystems', with emphasis on the interplay between the characteristics of individual banks (capital reserves in relation to total assets, etc.) and the overall dynamical behaviour of the system. The results are discussed in relation to potential regulations aimed at reducing systemic risk.

  1. The Architecture of Financial Risk Management Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iosif ZIMAN

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The architecture of systems dedicated to risk management is probably one of the more complex tasks to tackle in the world of finance. Financial risk has been at the center of attention since the explosive growth of financial markets and even more so after the 2008 financial crisis. At multiple levels, financial companies, financial regulatory bodies, governments and cross-national regulatory bodies, all have put the subject of financial risk in particular and the way it is calculated, managed, reported and monitored under intense scrutiny. As a result the technology underpinnings which support the implementation of financial risk systems has evolved considerably and has become one of the most complex areas involving systems and technology in the context of the financial industry. We present the main paradigms, require-ments and design considerations when undertaking the implementation of risk system and give examples of user requirements, sample product coverage and performance parameters.

  2. Insuring system performance to limit financial risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeRienzo, P.P.

    1982-06-01

    The days when feasibility studies had implicit confidence in construction schedules, plant availability, and capacity factors are gone. Risk has emerged as a predominant consideration in the planning of new facilities. Third party financing has increased awareness of the problem. The third party assumes the risk of his investment, but the operator must assume many other risks. The operating entity must therefore assess its own risk from plant outage. An insurance company submits a quotation to the operator indicating its willingness to insure the risk. The quotation is contingent upon the feasibility study. A brief and preliminary description (by outline) is given of the terms and conditions of a system performance insurance policy.

  3. The Banach-Tarski paradox

    CERN Document Server

    Wagon, Stan

    1985-01-01

    The Banach-Tarski paradox is a most striking mathematical construction: it asserts that a solid ball may be taken apart into finitely many pieces that can be rearranged using rigid motions to form a ball twice as large as the original. This volume explore

  4. Teaching Quantum Physics without Paradoxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hobson, Art

    2007-01-01

    Although the resolution to the wave-particle paradox has been known for 80 years, it is seldom presented. Briefly, the resolution is that material particles and photons are the quanta of extended spatially continuous but energetically quantized fields. But because the resolution resides in quantum field theory and is not usually spelled out in…

  5. Implementing Parrondo's paradox with two-coin quantum walks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajendran, Jishnu; Benjamin, Colin

    2018-02-01

    Parrondo's paradox is ubiquitous in games, ratchets and random walks. The apparent paradox, devised by J. M. R. Parrondo, that two losing games A and B can produce a winning outcome has been adapted in many physical and biological systems to explain their working. However, proposals on demonstrating Parrondo's paradox using quantum walks failed for a large number of steps. In this work, we show that instead of a single coin if we consider a two-coin initial state which may or may not be entangled, we can observe a genuine Parrondo's paradox with quantum walks. Furthermore, we focus on reasons for this and pin down the asymmetry in initial two-coin state or asymmetry in shift operator, either of which is necessary for observing a genuine Parrondo's paradox. We extend our work to a three-coin initial state too with similar results. The implications of our work for observing quantum ratchet-like behaviour using quantum walks are also discussed.

  6. 'System-Risk' Flood Task Force

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schröter, Kai; Ridder, Nina; Tavares da Costa, Ricardo; Diederen, Dirk; Viglione, Alberto

    2017-04-01

    Current scientific methods and engineering practice in flood risk assessment do not consider the full complexity of flood risk systems. Fundamental spatio-temporal dependencies, interactions and feedbacks need to be addressed to comprehensively quantify the effects of measures at various levels, ranging from local technical to high-level policy options. As each flood is unique, each event offers an unparalleled opportunity to collect data and to gain insights into system's behavior under extreme conditions potentially revealing exceptional circumstances, unexpected failures and cascading effects, and thus a chance to learn and to improve methods and models. To make use of this the Marie-Skłodowska-Curie European Training Network 'System-Risk' (www.system-risk.eu) establishes a Flood Task Force (FTF) that aims to learn about successful practical approaches, but also potential pitfalls and failures in the management of real flood events. The FTF consists of an interdisciplinary group of researchers who will apply in situ their latest methods and knowledge of e.g. how the event developed, how the risk management responded, and what the consequences were. This multi-layered perspective is intended to deepen the understanding of the complexity of flood risk systems as for instance in terms of interactions between hazard, the natural and the built environment, societal institutions and coping capacities. This contribution gives an overview of the conceptual approach to the System-Risk FTF.

  7. Exploring Nonlinearities in Financial Systemic Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wolski, M.

    2013-01-01

    We propose a new methodology of assessing the effects of individual institution's risk on the others and on the system as a whole. We build upon the Conditional Value-at-Risk approach, however, we introduce the explicit Granger causal linkages and we account for possible nonlinearities in the

  8. Integrating spaceflight human system risk research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mindock, Jennifer; Lumpkins, Sarah; Anton, Wilma; Havenhill, Maria; Shelhamer, Mark; Canga, Michael

    2017-10-01

    NASA is working to increase the likelihood of exploration mission success and to maintain crew health, both during exploration missions and long term after return to Earth. To manage the risks in achieving these goals, a system modelled after a Continuous Risk Management framework is in place. ;Human System Risks; (Risks) have been identified, and 32 are currently being actively addressed by NASA's Human Research Program (HRP). Research plans for each of HRP's Risks have been developed and are being executed. Inter-disciplinary ties between the research efforts supporting each Risk have been identified; however, efforts to identify and benefit from these connections have been mostly ad hoc. There is growing recognition that solutions developed to address the full set of Risks covering medical, physiological, behavioural, vehicle, and organizational aspects of exploration missions must be integrated across Risks and disciplines. This paper discusses how a framework of factors influencing human health and performance in space is being applied as the backbone for bringing together sometimes disparate information relevant to the individual Risks. The resulting interrelated information enables identification and visualization of connections between Risks and research efforts in a systematic and standardized manner. This paper also discusses the applications of the visualizations and insights into research planning, solicitation, and decision-making processes.

  9. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lee, John C; McCormick, Norman J

    2011-01-01

    .... The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used...

  10. Short-Selling, Leverage and Systemic Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Pais, Amelia; Stork, Philip A.

    2013-01-01

    During the Global Financial Crisis, regulators imposed short-selling bans to protect financial institutions. The rationale behind the bans was that “bear raids”, driven by short-sellers, would increase the individual and systemic risk of financial institutions, especially for institutions with high leverage. This study uses Extreme Value Theory to estimate the effect of short-selling on financial institutions’ individual and systemic risks in France, Italy and Spain; it also analyses the rela...

  11. Bubbles, Financial Crises, and Systemic Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Markus K. Brunnermeier; Martin Oehmke

    2012-01-01

    This chapter surveys the literature on bubbles, financial crises, and systemic risk. The first part of the chapter provides a brief historical account of bubbles and financial crisis. The second part of the chapter gives a structured overview of the literature on financial bubbles. The third part of the chapter discusses the literatures on financial crises and systemic risk, with particular emphasis on amplification and propagation mechanisms during financial crises, and the measurement of sy...

  12. Paradoxical Effect of Aspirin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Doutremepuich

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Low-dose aspirin is an important therapeutic option in the secondary prevention of myocardial infarction (MI and ischemic stroke, basedon its unique cost-effectiveness and widespread availability. In addition, based on the results of a number of large studies, aspirin is also widely used in the primary prevention of MI. This paper provides an update of the available data to offer greater clarity regarding the risks of aspirin with respect to hemorrhagic stroke. In the secondary prevention of cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and ischemic events, the evidence supports that the benefits of aspirin treatment significantly outweigh the risk of a major hemorrhage. When considering whether aspirin is appropriate, the absolute therapeutic cardiovascular benefits of aspirin must be balanced with the possible risks associated with its use, being hemorrhagic stroke. Regarding these clinical facts, normal, COX 1 −/−, and COX 2 −/− mice were treated with a wide range of doses of aspirin and studied by induced hemorrhagic time. The results outlined three major conclusions: high doses of aspirin induce hemorrhage, while low doses of aspirin do not. In the absence of COX 1, ultra low doses of aspirin produce an antihemorrhagic effect not observed with intermediate doses. The absence of COX 2 induced a hemorrhagic effect that needs further research, probably originated in compensatory phenomena.

  13. THRMS: A pilot risk management system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xue, D.; Xu, Y.

    2000-01-01

    Daya Bay NPP is the first commercial nuclear power plant in China. This plant is interested in and pro-active towards the development and application of PSA and PSA tools. This, together with the support from the IAEA promoted the project 'THRMS: the pilot study of risk management system for NPP'. The objectives in development and implementation of THRMS includes: survey and discuss on the development of the approaches used in constructing plant risk models; design and study on the realization of a real-time risk management system. An overview of the project is presented in this paper. (author)

  14. Systemic trade risk of critical resources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klimek, Peter; Obersteiner, Michael; Thurner, Stefan

    2015-11-01

    In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, the role of strongly interconnected markets in causing systemic instability has been increasingly acknowledged. Trade networks of commodities are susceptible to cascades of supply shocks that increase systemic trade risks and pose a threat to geopolitical stability. We show that supply risk, scarcity, and price volatility of nonfuel mineral resources are intricately connected with the structure of the worldwide trade networks spanned by these resources. At the global level, we demonstrate that the scarcity of a resource is closely related to the susceptibility of the trade network with respect to cascading shocks. At the regional level, we find that, to some extent, region-specific price volatility and supply risk can be understood by centrality measures that capture systemic trade risk. The resources associated with the highest systemic trade risk indicators are often those that are produced as by-products of major metals. We identify significant strategic shortcomings in the management of systemic trade risk, in particular in the European Union.

  15. Apparent paradoxes in classical electrodynamics: relativistic transformation of force

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kholmetskii, A L; Yarman, T

    2007-01-01

    In this paper, we analyse a number of paradoxical teaching problems of classical electrodynamics, dealing with the relativistic transformation of force for complex macro systems, consisting of a number of subsystems with nonzero relative velocities such as electric circuits that change their shape in the course of time

  16. Global Trends: Paradox of Progress

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    human history . Human and Animal Health Under Pressure. Changing environmental conditions and increasing global connectivity will affect...PARADOX OF PROGRESS A pub l ica t ion o f the Nat ional In te l l i gence Counci l GLOBAL TRENDS JANUARY 2017 NIC 2017-001 ISBN 978-0-16-093614...1 The Map of the Future 5 Trends Transforming the Global Landscape 29 Near Future: Tensions Are Rising 45 Three Scenarios for the Distant Future

  17. Estenose Aórtica Paradoxal

    OpenAIRE

    Andreia Filipa Oliveira Campinas

    2017-01-01

    Trabalho final de mestrado integrado em Medicina (Cardiologia), apresentado à Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de Coimbra. A estenose aórtica paradoxal define-se por uma área valvular aórtica ≤ 1 cm2, um volume sistólico indexado 50%). Caracteriza-se por uma marcada remodelagem concêntrica do ventrículo esquerdo, com predomínio de disfunção diastólic...

  18. Reinterpretaion of the friendship paradox

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Jingcheng; Wu, Jianliang

    The friendship paradox (FP) is a sociological phenomenon stating that most people have fewer friends than their friends do. It is to say that in a social network, the number of friends that most individuals have is smaller than the average number of friends of friends. This has been verified by Feld. We call this interpreting method mean value version. But is it the best choice to portray the paradox? In this paper, we propose a probability method to reinterpret this paradox, and we illustrate that the explanation using our method is more persuasive. An individual satisfies the FP if his (her) randomly chosen friend has more friends than him (her) with probability not less than 1/2. Comparing the ratios of nodes satisfying the FP in networks, rp, we can see that the probability version is stronger than the mean value version in real networks both online and offline. We also show some results about the effects of several parameters on rp in random network models. Most importantly, rp is a quadratic polynomial of the power law exponent γ in Price model, and rp is higher when the average clustering coefficient is between 0.4 and 0.5 in Petter-Beom (PB) model. The introduction of the probability method to FP can shed light on understanding the network structure in complex networks especially in social networks.

  19. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    CERN Document Server

    Lee, John C

    2011-01-01

    The book has been developed in conjunction with NERS 462, a course offered every year to seniors and graduate students in the University of Michigan NERS program. The first half of the book covers the principles of risk analysis, the techniques used to develop and update a reliability data base, the reliability of multi-component systems, Markov methods used to analyze the unavailability of systems with repairs, fault trees and event trees used in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), and failure modes of systems. All of this material is general enough that it could be used in non-nuclear a

  20. Human System Risk Management for Space Flight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Jeffrey

    2015-01-01

    This brief abstract reviews the development of the current day approach to human system risk management for space flight and the development of the critical components of this process over the past few years. The human system risk management process now provides a comprehensive assessment of each human system risk by design reference mission (DRM) and is evaluated not only for mission success but also for long-term health impacts for the astronauts. The discipline of bioastronautics is the study of the biological and medical effects of space flight on humans. In 1997, the Space Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) initiated the Bioastronautics Roadmap (Roadmap) as the "Critical Path Roadmap", and in 1998 participation in the roadmap was expanded to include the National Space Biomedical Research Institute (NSBRI) and the external community. A total of 55 risks and 250 questions were identified and prioritized and in 2000, the Roadmap was base-lined and put under configuration control. The Roadmap took into account several major advisory committee reviews including the Institute of Medicine (IOM) "Safe Passage: Astronaut care for Exploration Missions", 2001. Subsequently, three collaborating organizations at NASA HQ (Chief Health and Medical Officer, Office of Space Flight and Office of Biological & Physical Research), published the Bioastronautics Strategy in 2003, that identified the human as a "critical subsystem of space flight" and noted that "tolerance limits and safe operating bands must be established" to enable human space flight. These offices also requested a review by the IOM of the Roadmap and that review was published in October 2005 as "A Risk Reduction Strategy for Human Exploration of Space: A Review of NASA's Bioastronautics Roadmap", that noted several strengths and weaknesses of the Roadmap and made several recommendations. In parallel with the development of the Roadmap, the Office of the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) began a process in

  1. Paradoxes of participation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Jens Friis

    2015-01-01

    and have increasingly been associated with inequitable social outcomes. Part of the explanation for this must be sought in the professionalization promoted by these reforms in the sense of scientific management approaches and structured and detailed systems of information gathering, dissemination...

  2. A "refugee paradox" for substance use disorders?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salas-Wright, Christopher P; Vaughn, Michael G

    2014-09-01

    Few, if any, studies have systematically examined the link between nativity and substance use disorders (SUD) among refugees using national samples. As such, it remains uncertain if the "immigrant paradox" for substance use can be extended to include refugees in the United States. Employing data from the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions, we examine the lifetime prevalence of SUDs among refugees (n=428) in contrast with non-refugee immigrants (n=4955) and native-born Americans (n=29,267). We also examine the impact of gender and refugee duration on the relationship between nativity, refugee status, and SUDs. Refugees were between 3 and 6 times less likely than native-born Americans meet criteria for all SUDs examined, and significantly less likely than non-refugee immigrants to meet criteria for alcohol (AOR=0.44, 95% CI=0.41-0.47), cocaine (AOR=0.54, 95% CI=0.50-0.59), hallucinogen (AOR=0.66, 95% CI=0.58-0.74), and opioid/heroin (AOR=0.62, 95% CI=0.58-0.66) use disorders. The refugee-SUD link was significantly moderated by gender. Duration as a refugee was associated with increased risk for alcohol use disorder and decreased risk of cannabis and illicit drug use disorders. Study findings provide evidence in support of a "refugee paradox" for SUDs among adults in the United States. Refugees are substantially less likely than native-born Americans to meet criteria for all SUDs examined and, albeit with weaker effects, significantly less likely than non-refugee immigrants to meet criteria for a variety of SUDs. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Induced Seismicity of the Paradox Valley Brine Injection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bachmann, C. E.; Foxall, W.; Daley, T. M.

    2013-12-01

    for such a long time. We aim to get more insight of long-term processes so it can be applied to the study of Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS), where large volumes of carbon are injected into the underground for long-term storage. A first step is to understand the frequency magnitude distributions (FMD) of the ongoing seismicity at Paradox Valley better. We divide the events into sub-clusters and examine them individually. We find that the b-Values of the Gutenberg-Richter relationship change substantially within the different clusters from values of 0.7 to 1.2. Comparing the b-Values from this study with earlier studies of induced seismicity in from an Enhanced Geothermal System in Basel, Switzerland, we find that while the values are smaller, the overall pattern is surprisingly similar. We find the largest b-Values closest to the injection well and early on during the injections. Unlike in Basel, we can't compare co-injection and post-injection seismicity, as the injection is still ongoing. However, there are biannual 20-day shutdowns of the injection since 1999, which were implemented to reduce the risk of large magnitude events. We investigate the different behavior of the seismicity during this shut-in compared to the seismicity during the active injection.

  4. Risk Analysis of Accounting Information System Infrastructure

    OpenAIRE

    MIHALACHE, Arsenie-Samoil

    2011-01-01

    National economy and security are fully dependent on information technology and infrastructure. At the core of the information infrastructure society relies on, we have the Internet, a system designed initially as a scientists’ forum for unclassified research. The use of communication networks and systems may lead to hazardous situations that generate undesirable effects such as communication systems breakdown, loss of data or taking the wrong decisions. The paper studies the risk analysis of...

  5. PARADOXES OF AUTOMOTIVE EVOLUTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. A. Grabaurov

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a historical analysis of tendencies pertaining to automotive evolution. It has been shown how motivation to higher speed and capacity had made it possible to manufacture automobiles with several hundred horsepower capacity. Traffic speed in the cities is rather less than technical capabilities of automobiles; there are serious ecological and traffic safety problems. Solution of serious traffic safety problems is possible only while developing clever automobiles for clever traffic roads within the framework of intelligent transportation systems.

  6. Paradoxical Deterioration During Anti-Tuberculous Therapy in Non-HIV-Infected Patients with Pleural Tuberculosis: A Pragmatic Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Corral-Gudino

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available We report a case of paradoxical deterioration. A male patient diagnosed with pleural tuberculosis, but who was not infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV, experienced clinical deterioration 3 weeks after the initiation of anti-tuberculous treatment. After other diagnoses were ruled out, a paradoxical response to treatment was established and the patient was started on systemic corticosteroids. Paradoxical response to treatment should be considered in patients with clinical deterioration after they start on anti-tuberculous treatment.

  7. System Risk Balancing Profiles: Software Component

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, John C.; Sigal, Burton C.; Gindorf, Tom

    2000-01-01

    The Software QA / V&V guide will be reviewed and updated based on feedback from NASA organizations and others with a vested interest in this area. Hardware, EEE Parts, Reliability, and Systems Safety are a sample of the future guides that will be developed. Cost Estimates, Lessons Learned, Probability of Failure and PACTS (Prevention, Avoidance, Control or Test) are needed to provide a more complete risk management strategy. This approach to risk management is designed to help balance the resources and program content for risk reduction for NASA's changing environment.

  8. Paradoxical Leadership to Enable Strategic Agility

    OpenAIRE

    Lewis, M. W.; Andriopoulos, C.; Smith, W. K.

    2014-01-01

    Strategic agility evokes contradictions, such as stability-flexibility, commitment-change, and established routines-novel approaches. These competing demands pose challenges that require paradoxical leadership—practices seeking creative, both/and solutions that can enable fast-paced, adaptable decision making. Why is managing paradox critical to strategic agility? And which practices enable leaders to effectively manage tensions? This article describes the paradoxical nature of strategic agil...

  9. Training load--injury paradox: is greater preseason participation associated with lower in-season injury risk in elite rugby league players?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Windt, Johann; Gabbett, Tim J; Ferris, Daniel; Khan, Karim M

    2017-04-01

    To determine whether players who completed a greater number of planned preseason training sessions were more or less likely to be injured during the competitive season. A cohort of 30 elite rugby league players was prospectively studied during their 17-week preseason and 26-round competitive season. Injuries were recorded using a match time loss definition. Preseason participation was quantified as the number of 'full' training sessions that players completed, excluding modified, rehabilitation or missed sessions. In-season training load variables, collected using global positioning system (GPS) data, included distance covered (m), high-speed distance covered (m) and the percentage of distance covered at high speeds (%). Multilevel logistic regression models were used to determine injury likelihood in the current and subsequent week, with random intercepts for each player. Odds ratios (OR) were used as effect size measures to determine the changes in injury likelihood with (1) a 10-session increase in preseason training participation or (2) standardised changes in training load variables. Controlling for training load in a given week, completing 10 additional preseason sessions was associated with a 17% reduction in the odds of injury in the subsequent week (OR=0.83, 95% CI=0.70 to 0.99). Increased preseason participation was associated with a lower percentage of games missed due to injury (r=-0.40, p<0.05), with 10 preseason sessions predicting a 5% reduction in the percentage of games missed. Maximising participation in preseason training may protect elite rugby league players against in-season injury. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  10. Paradoxical upgrading reaction in extra-pulmonary tuberculosis: association with vitamin D therapy

    OpenAIRE

    Barr, D.A.; Coussens, A.K.; Irvine, S.; Ritchie, N.D.; Herbert, K.; Choo-Kang, B.; Raeside, D.; Bell, D.J.; Seaton, R.A.

    2017-01-01

    SETTING: Glasgow, Scotland, UK.\\ud \\ud BACKGROUND: Paradoxical reactions in tuberculosis (TB) are a notable example of our incomplete understanding of host-pathogen interactions during anti-tuberculosis treatment.\\ud \\ud OBJECTIVES: To determine risk factors for a TB paradoxical reaction, and specifically to assess for an independent association with vitamin D use.\\ud \\ud DESIGN: Consecutive human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) negative adult patients treated for extra-pulmonary TB were identif...

  11. The three-box paradox revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ravon, Tamar; Vaidman, Lev

    2007-01-01

    The classical three-box paradox of Kirkpatrick (2003 J. Phys. A: Math. Gen. 36 4891) is compared to the original quantum three-box paradox of Aharonov and Vaidman (1991 J. Phys. A: Math. Gen. 24 2315). It is argued that the quantum three-box experiment is a 'quantum paradox' in the sense that it is an example of a classical task which cannot be accomplished using classical means, but can be accomplished using quantum devices. It is shown that Kirkpatrick's card game is analogous to a different game with a particle in three boxes which does not contain paradoxical features

  12. STARS: The Space Transportation Architecture Risk System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenberg, Joel S.

    1997-01-01

    Because of the need to perform comparisons between transportation systems that are likely to have significantly different levels of risk, both because of differing degrees of freedom in achieving desired performance levels and their different states of development and utilization, an approach has been developed for performing early comparisons of transportation architectures explicitly taking into account quantitative measures of uncertainty and resulting risk. The approach considers the uncertainty associated with the achievement of technology goals, the effect that the achieved level of technology will have on transportation system performance and the relationship between transportation system performance/capability and the ability to accommodate variations in payload mass. The consequences of system performance are developed in terms of expected values and associated standard deviations of nonrecurring, recurring and the present value of transportation system life cycle cost. Typical results are presented to illustrate the application of the methodology.

  13. Health and environmental risks of energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.

    1984-01-01

    The paper gives four examples of health risk assessments of energy systems: (1) Comparative risk assessment of the health effects of the coal and nuclear fuel cycles. Estimates differ from previous values chiefly by inclusion of ranges of uncertainty, but some coal-cycle numbers were re-estimated. Upper-boundary public disease risks of air pollution from coal-fired plants dominate. Reactors probably account for most of the potential effect of major nuclear accidents. Accidental death rates in electricity generation are low for reactors and higher for coal. (2) Upper-boundary air pollution health risks of existing fossil-fuel-based energy technologies in the United States of America. Preliminary mortality estimates were obtained combining potential impacts of three index pollutants - SO 4 , NO 2 , and CO - as independent measures of risk. Four fuel cycle trajectories leading to three end-uses were analysed. (3) Health risks of acid deposition and other transported air pollutants, carried out as part of an assessment of the US Congress Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) 'Acid Rain and Transported Air Pollutants. (4) Health effects of uranium mill tailings piles. Mortality risk is estimated to be minuscule (8.7x10 -9 average individual lifetime cancer risk from a model mill, compared with 9.5x10 -4 for background radiation). Methods that sum risks over the indefinite future are shown to be unrealistic. As a final example of risk analysis, the cost-effectiveness analysis for proposed EPA standards for radionuclides is shown to be deficient by an analysis concluding that the cost per potential cancer avoided could range from US $70 million to US $140 billion

  14. Disaster Risk Management of Urban Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana-Diana Ancaş

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Evaluating the risk of natural disasters is an intensely debated issue, both on national and international level. In the present paper, after a brief review of the international research in this field and an introduction in risk management, we insisted on risk analysis of an urban area, called urban system. More precisely, we investigated the evaluation of risk and the behavior of the pipelines infrastructure characteristic in an urban area during an earthquake.By taking into account a certain region in Jassy city area, we present a methodology of evaluating seismic risk of the utilities network of the region. The method consists in establishing the necessary steps to be taken in such an evaluation. These steps are also graphically displayed for the gas pipelines of the area, and emphasizing the critical points existent in that sector e.g. gas stations. Using the cellular automata technique, inspired from the artificial intelligence and complex system fields, based on the GIS map of the analysed region, we obtained a map with the risk areas in case of an earthquake, taking into account the gas pipelines network and the existing critical points.

  15. Localized Scleroderma, Systemic Sclerosis and Cardiovascular Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hesselvig, Jeanette Halskou; Kofoed, Kristian; Wu, Jashin J

    2018-01-01

    Recent findings indicate that patients with systemic sclerosis have an increased risk of cardiovascular disease. To determine whether patients with systemic sclerosis or localized scleroderma are at increased risk of cardiovascular disease, a cohort study of the entire Danish population aged ≥ 18...... and ≤ 100 years was conducted, followed from 1997 to 2011 by individual-level linkage of nationwide registries. Multivariable adjusted Cox regression models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) for a composite cardiovascular disease endpoint. A total of 697 patients with localized scleroderma and 1......,962 patients with systemic sclerosis were identified and compared with 5,428,380 people in the reference population. In systemic sclerosis, the adjusted HR was 2.22 (95% confidence interval 1.99-2.48). No association was seen between patients with localized scleroderma and cardiovascular disease. In conclusion...

  16. A Note on Faraday Paradoxes

    CERN Document Server

    Auchmann, Bernhard; Russenschuck, Stephan

    2014-01-01

    The validity of the flux rule to determine the electromotive force in a cycle, epsilon = -d Phi/dt, has been the subject of a large amount of controversy since the beginning of electrical technology. Although most authors reach correct conclusions for a class of problems called Faraday paradoxes, the arguments that are used vary and often rely on ad-hoc physical reasoning. A didactic and insightful treatment should be based solely on Maxwell's equations, the constitutive laws, and a detailed study of the mathematics involved.

  17. REXS : A financial risk diagnostic expert system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Richter

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Artificial intelligence techniques are rapidly emerging as important contributors to more effective management. One of the greatest growth areas probably lies in the use of Expert System methodology for supporting managerial decision processes.
    Existing Decision Support Systems often attempt to apply analytical techniques in combination with traditional data access and retrieval functions. One of the problems usually encountered while developing such decision support systems is the need to transform an unstructured problem environment into a structured analytical model. Using an expert system approach to strategic decision making in such unstructured problem environments may provide significant advantages.
    The financial Risk diagnostic EXpert System (REXS concentrates on Financial Risk Analysis. Based on a Forecasting Model the system will, with the support of several expert system knowledge bases, attempt to evaluate the financial risk of a business and provide guidelines for improvement.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Tegnieke gebaseer op Kunsmatige Intelligensie toon tans die belofte om belangrike bydraes te maak tot meerBestaande Besluitsteunstelsels poog dikwels om analitiese tegnieke en lradisionele datatoegang- en onttrekkingsfunksies te kombineer. Een van die probleme wat gewoonlik ondervind word gedurende die ontwikkeling van '0 besluitsteunstelsel bestaan uit die behoefte om 'n ongestruktueerde probleemomgewing te transformeer na 'n gestruktueerde analitiese model. 'n Ekspertstelselbenadering lot strategiese besluitneming in 'n ongeSlruktureerde probleemomgewing mag betekenisvolle voordele inhou.
    Die "financial Risk diagnostic EXpert System (REXS" konsentreer op fmansiele risiko-analise. Uitgaande vanaf 'n Vooruitskattingsmode~ en deur gebruik te maak van verskeie ekspertstelselkennisbasisse, poog die stelsel om die fmansiele risiko van 'n onderneming te evalueer en riglyne vir moontlike verbetering

  18. Paradoxical Infrastructures: Ruins, Retrofit, and Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Howe, Cymene; Lockrem, Jessica; Appel, Hannah; Hackett, Edward; Boyer, Dominic; Hall, Randal; Schneider-Mayerson, Matthew; Pope, Albert; Gupta, Akhil; Rodwell, Elizabeth; Ballestero, Andrew; Durbin, Trevor; el-Dahdah, Fares; Long, Elizabeth; Mody, Cyrus C.M.

    2016-01-01

    In recent years, a dramatic increase in the study of infrastructure has occurred in the social sciences and humanities, following upon foundational work in the physical sciences, architecture, planning, information science, and engineering. This article, authored by a multidisciplinary group of

  19. Systems reliability in high risk situations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunns, D.M.

    1974-12-01

    A summary is given of five papers and the discussion of a seminar promoted by the newly-formed National Centre of Systems Reliability. The topics covered include hazard analysis, reliability assessment, and risk assessment in both nuclear and non-nuclear industries. (U.K.)

  20. Pension systems, intergenerational risk sharing and inflation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beetsma, R.M.W.J.; Bovenberg, A.L.

    2006-01-01

    We investigate intergenerational risk sharing in two-pillar pension systems with a pay-as-you-go pillar and a funded pillar. We consider shocks in productivity, depreciation of capital and inflation. The funded pension pillar can be either defined contribution or defined benefit, with benefits

  1. Seismicity of the Paradox Basin and the Colorado Plateau interior

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, I.G.

    1984-04-01

    National Waste Terminal Storage Program site qualification criteria require that a nuclear waste repository be located so that ground motion associated with the maximum credible and maximum probable earthquakes or other earthquake-associated effects will not have an unacceptable adverse impact on system performance. To determine whether a potential repository site located in the Paradox salt formation in the Paradox Basin of southeastern Utah satisfies these criteria, seismological studies were undertaken by Woodward-Clyde Consultants (WCC) in March 1978. These studies included: (1) analysis of historical seismicity; (2) analysis of contemporary seismicity and tectonics of both the Paradox Basin and surrounding Colorado Plateau, including an extensive program of microearthquake monitoring; (3) evaluation of the Paradox Basin crustal structure; (4) evaluation of mining-induced seismicity; and (5) characterization of design-related earthquake-induced ground motions pertinent to a potential repository site through studies of attentation and subsurface ground motions. A detailed discussion of the results of the seismological studies performed through December 1980 is contained in WCC (1982). The purpose of this topical report is to update and summarize the studies on the local, regional, and mining-induced seismicity conducted through December 1982. The limitations of any interpretations are also discussed and additional information that remains to be acquired is identified. 56 references, 45 figures, 4 tables

  2. MCM Paradox: Abundance of Eukaryotic Replicative Helicases and Genomic Integrity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mitali Das

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available As a crucial component of DNA replication licensing system, minichromosome maintenance (MCM 2–7 complex acts as the eukaryotic DNA replicative helicase. The six related MCM proteins form a heterohexamer and bind with ORC, CDC6, and Cdt1 to form the prereplication complex. Although the MCMs are well known as replicative helicases, their overabundance and distribution patterns on chromatin present a paradox called the “MCM paradox.” Several approaches had been taken to solve the MCM paradox and describe the purpose of excess MCMs distributed beyond the replication origins. Alternative functions of these MCMs rather than a helicase had also been proposed. This review focuses on several models and concepts generated to solve the MCM paradox coinciding with their helicase function and provides insight into the concept that excess MCMs are meant for licensing dormant origins as a backup during replication stress. Finally, we extend our view towards the effect of alteration of MCM level. Though an excess MCM constituent is needed for normal cells to withstand stress, there must be a delineation of the threshold level in normal and malignant cells. This review also outlooks the future prospects to better understand the MCM biology.

  3. A Participatory Model of the Paradox of Primary Care

    Science.gov (United States)

    Homa, Laura; Rose, Johnie; Hovmand, Peter S.; Cherng, Sarah T.; Riolo, Rick L.; Kraus, Alison; Biswas, Anindita; Burgess, Kelly; Aungst, Heide; Stange, Kurt C.; Brown, Kalanthe; Brooks-Terry, Margaret; Dec, Ellen; Jackson, Brigid; Gilliam, Jules; Kikano, George E.; Reichsman, Ann; Schaadt, Debbie; Hilfer, Jamie; Ticknor, Christine; Tyler, Carl V.; Van der Meulen, Anna; Ways, Heather; Weinberger, Richard F.; Williams, Christine

    2015-01-01

    PURPOSE The paradox of primary care is the observation that primary care is associated with apparently low levels of evidence-based care for individual diseases, but systems based on primary care have healthier populations, use fewer resources, and have less health inequality. The purpose of this article is to explore, from a complex systems perspective, mechanisms that might account for the effects of primary care beyond disease-specific care. METHODS In an 8-session, participatory group model-building process, patient, caregiver, and primary care clinician community stakeholders worked with academic investigators to develop and refine an agent-based computer simulation model to test hypotheses about mechanisms by which features of primary care could affect health and health equity. RESULTS In the resulting model, patients are at risk for acute illness, acute life-changing illness, chronic illness, and mental illness. Patients have changeable health behaviors and care-seeking tendencies that relate to their living in advantaged or disadvantaged neighborhoods. There are 2 types of care available to patients: primary and specialty. Primary care in the model is less effective than specialty care in treating single diseases, but it has the ability to treat multiple diseases at once. Primary care also can provide disease prevention visits, help patients improve their health behaviors, refer to specialty care, and develop relationships with patients that cause them to lower their threshold for seeking care. In a model run with primary care features turned off, primary care patients have poorer health. In a model run with all primary care features turned on, their conjoint effect leads to better population health for patients who seek primary care, with the primary care effect being particularly pronounced for patients who are disadvantaged and patients with multiple chronic conditions. Primary care leads to more total health care visits that are due to more disease

  4. Health and environmental risks of energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.

    1984-01-01

    This paper gives four examples of health risk assessments of energy systems: (1) Comparative risk assessment of the health effects of the coal and nuclear fuel cycles. Estimates differ from previous values chiefly by inclusion of ranges of uncertainty, but some coal-cycle numbers were re-estimated. Upper-boundary public disease risks of air pollution from coal-fired plants dominate. Reactors probably account for most of the potential effect of major nuclear accidents. Accidental death rates in electricity generation are low for reactors and higher for coal. (2) Upper boundary air pollution health risks of existing fossil-based energy technologies in the United States. Preliminary mortality estimates were obtained combining potential impacts of three index pollutants - SO 4 , NO 2 , and CO - as independent measures of risk. Four fuel cycle trajectories leading to three end-uses were analyzed. Example results: domestic wood burning has substantial potential impact, with an upper boundary exceeding that of coal; upper-boundary air pollution impacts of gas can exceed those of oil, because of NO 2 . (3) Health risks of acid deposition and other transported air pollutants, carried out as part of an assessment of the US Congress Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) Acid Rain and Transported Air Pollutants - Implications for Public Policy. Three scenarios were examined, leading to estimates of 40,000 to 50,000 annual premature deaths, depending on year (1978 vs 2000) and scenario (holding total emissions constant vs 30% reduction). (4) health effects of uranium mill tailings piles. Mortality risk is estimated to be minuscule (8.7 x 10 -9 average individual lifetime cancer risk from a model mill, compared with 9.5 x 10 -4 for background radiation). Methods that sum risks over the indefinite future are shown to be to be unrealistic. 39 references, 7 figures, 15 tables

  5. Cannabinoid Hyperemesis Syndrome: A Paradoxical Cannabis Effect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivonne Marie Figueroa-Rivera

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Despite well-established antiemetic properties of marijuana, there has been increasing evidence of a paradoxical effect in the gastrointestinal tract and central nervous system, given rise to a new and underrecognized clinical entity called the Cannabinoid Hyperemesis Syndrome. Reported cases in the medical literature have established a series of patients exhibiting a classical triad of symptoms: cyclic vomiting, chronic marijuana use, and compulsive bathing. We present a case of a 29-year-old man whose clinical presentation strongly correlates with cannabinoid hyperemesis syndrome. Despite a diagnosis of exclusion, this syndrome should be considered plausible in the setting of a patient with recurrent intractable vomiting and a strong history of cannabis use as presented in this case.

  6. Paradoxes of reading and knowledge in Slovenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miha Kovač

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper introduces the concept of book usage and puts Slovenian book usage into the context of the European Union. It stresses the limits of European book statistics,due to them the measurements of book usage in various European societies is almost impossible. In this context, we will show that due to available data, Slovenia paradoxically belongs to the countries with high book usage and average reading habits. In the second part of the paper, we will look at the correlations between reading habits and efficiency of education systems. On this basis, we will ask some new questions and develop a set of hypotheses that need to be verified by the further research.

  7. Paradoxical reactions in children with tuberculosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Ira; Bhaskar, M V

    2017-04-01

    We sought to determine the incidence and clinical spectrum of the paradoxical reaction (PR) to treatment in 1000 children with tuberculosis (TB). Its incidence was 3.3%, presenting as mediastinal adenopathy (n = 12), central nervous system (CNS) tuberculoma (n = 8), increasing size of lymph nodes (n = 8) and serositis (n = 5). Symptoms included breathlessness (n = 7, 21.2%), neck swellings (n = 5, 15.2%), hemiplegia (n = 3, 9.1%), raised intracranial tension (n = 2, 6.1%) and fever or diabetes insipidus (n = 1, 3% each). The mean age of onset of PR was 3.5 months after the start of anti-TB medication. PR was seen predominantly in boys. Mediastinal lymphadenopathy was more common in children aged children aged 2-5 years. Nodal enlargement and serositis were seen equally in all age groups.

  8. Risk-based classification system of nanomaterials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tervonen, Tommi; Linkov, Igor; Figueira, Jose Rui; Steevens, Jeffery; Chappell, Mark; Merad, Myriam

    2009-01-01

    Various stakeholders are increasingly interested in the potential toxicity and other risks associated with nanomaterials throughout the different stages of a product's life cycle (e.g., development, production, use, disposal). Risk assessment methods and tools developed and applied to chemical and biological materials may not be readily adaptable for nanomaterials because of the current uncertainty in identifying the relevant physico-chemical and biological properties that adequately describe the materials. Such uncertainty is further driven by the substantial variations in the properties of the original material due to variable manufacturing processes employed in nanomaterial production. To guide scientists and engineers in nanomaterial research and application as well as to promote the safe handling and use of these materials, we propose a decision support system for classifying nanomaterials into different risk categories. The classification system is based on a set of performance metrics that measure both the toxicity and physico-chemical characteristics of the original materials, as well as the expected environmental impacts through the product life cycle. Stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis (SMAA-TRI), a formal decision analysis method, was used as the foundation for this task. This method allowed us to cluster various nanomaterials in different ecological risk categories based on our current knowledge of nanomaterial physico-chemical characteristics, variation in produced material, and best professional judgments. SMAA-TRI uses Monte Carlo simulations to explore all feasible values for weights, criteria measurements, and other model parameters to assess the robustness of nanomaterial grouping for risk management purposes.

  9. Quantum Zeno and anti-Zeno paradoxes

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    anti-Zeno paradox. Here we discuss the quantum Zeno and anti-Zeno paradoxes which arise due to infinitely frequent measurements of time independent and .... follow a presentation due to Martin [11]. Consider an unstable particle B decaying into particles c + D, ... etc. B c + D,.... (10). Suppose that the total Hamiltonian H ...

  10. Negative freedom and the liberal paradoxes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Hees, M.V.B.P.M

    In their game-theoretic formulations, the liberal paradoxes of Amartya Sm and Alan Gibbard show a tension between freedom on the one hand, and Pareto optimality and stability on the other. This article examines what happens to the liberal paradoxes if a negative conception of freedom is used. Given

  11. New Paradoxes of Risky Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birnbaum, Michael H.

    2008-01-01

    During the last 25 years, prospect theory and its successor, cumulative prospect theory, replaced expected utility as the dominant descriptive theories of risky decision making. Although these models account for the original Allais paradoxes, 11 new paradoxes show where prospect theories lead to self-contradiction or systematic false predictions.…

  12. Unearthing the Banach–Tarski Paradox

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 22; Issue 10. Unearthing the Banach–Tarski Paradox. B Sury. General Article Volume 22 Issue 10 October ... The paradox of the title can be informally described as follows.Consider the earth including the inside stuff. It is possibleto decompose this solid ...

  13. Quantum Zeno and anti-Zeno paradoxes

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Abstract. Continuous observation of a time independent projection operator is known to prevent change of state (the quantum Zeno paradox). We discuss the recent result that generic continuous measurement of time dependent projection operators will in fact ensure change of state: an anti-Zeno paradox.

  14. EPR paradox, quantum nonlocality and physical reality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kupczynski, M.

    2016-03-01

    Eighty years ago Einstein, Podolsky and Rosen demonstrated that instantaneous reduction of wave function, believed to describe completely a pair of entangled physical systems, led to EPR paradox. The paradox disappears in statistical interpretation of quantum mechanics (QM) according to which a wave function describes only an ensemble of identically prepared physical systems. QM predicts strong correlations between outcomes of measurements performed on different members of EPR pairs in far-away locations. Searching for an intuitive explanation of these correlations John Bell analysed so called local realistic hidden variable models and proved that correlations consistent with these models satisfy Bell inequalities which are violated by some predictions of QM and by experimental data. Several different local models were constructed and inequalities proven. Some eminent physicists concluded that Nature is definitely nonlocal and that it is acting according to a law of nonlocal randomness. According to these law perfectly random, but strongly correlated events, can be produced at the same time in far away locations and a local and causal explanation of their occurrence cannot be given. We strongly disagree with this conclusion and we prove the contrary by analysing in detail some influential finite sample proofs of Bell and CHSH inequalities and so called Quantum Randi Challenges. We also show how one can win so called Bell's game without violating locality of Nature. Nonlocal randomness is inconsistent with local quantum field theory, with standard model in elementary particle physics and with causal laws and adaptive dynamics prevailing in the surrounding us world. The experimental violation of Bell-type inequalities does not prove the nonlocality of Nature but it only confirms a contextual character of quantum observables and gives a strong argument against counterfactual definiteness and against a point of view according to which experimental outcomes are produced

  15. Tippe top paradox in relativity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basu, Aniket; Saraswat, R. S.; Khare, Kedar B.; Sastry, G. P.; Bose, Sougato

    2002-05-01

    If a tippe top is held by its stem and spun fast on a table, it eventually tips over and stands spinning on its stem. For this to happen, the ratios of its principal moments of inertia should fall in a certain regime. Let such a top be observed from a rocket frame in which the top and the table move with a relativistic velocity. The cross-section of the top now appears elliptical due to the length contraction along the line of motion. For a fast enough rocket frame, it is possible that the ratios of the principal moments of inertia go out of the regime required for the top to tip over. However, this is paradoxical. A top that tips over in one frame should tip over in all frames. The paradox is resolved by applying the Lorentz transformation formulae to the equation of motion of the particles of the top, and going over to the spinning coordinates. All the relativistic effects such as the length contraction, time dilation, velocity addition and the lack of synchronization of clocks make their appearance. The orbits of the particles are studied analytically as well as by computer simulation. The movies on the monitor screen reveal the picturesque motion of the particles of the spinning top in the rocket frame, and show in detail how the notion of a rigid body fails in relativistic mechanics. The source code for the computer simulation is included in the appendix.

  16. [Five paradoxes in health promotion].

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Dicastillo, Olga; Canga-Armayor, Navidad; Mujika, Agurtzane; Pardavila-Belio, Miren Idoia; Belintxon, Maider; Serrano-Monzó, Inmaculada; Pumar-Méndez, María J

    The World Health Organization states that health promotion is a key strategy to improve health, and it is conceived as a global process of enabling people to increase control over, and to improve, their health. Health promotion does not focus solely on empowering individuals dealing with their knowledge, attitudes and skills, but it also takes political, social, economic and environmental aspects influencing health and wellbeing into account. The complexity of applying these concepts is reflected in the five paradoxes in health promotion; these arise in between the rhetoric in health promotion and implementation. The detected paradoxes which are described herein involve the patient versus the person, the individual versus the group, disease professionals versus health professionals, disease indicators versus health indicators, and health as an expense versus health as an investment. Making these contradictions explicit can help determine why it is so complex to put the concepts related to health promotion into practice. It can also help to put forward aspects that need further work if health promotion is to put into practice. Copyright © 2017 SESPAS. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  17. Credit Default Swaps networks and systemic risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puliga, Michelangelo; Caldarelli, Guido; Battiston, Stefano

    2014-11-01

    Credit Default Swaps (CDS) spreads should reflect default risk of the underlying corporate debt. Actually, it has been recognized that CDS spread time series did not anticipate but only followed the increasing risk of default before the financial crisis. In principle, the network of correlations among CDS spread time series could at least display some form of structural change to be used as an early warning of systemic risk. Here we study a set of 176 CDS time series of financial institutions from 2002 to 2011. Networks are constructed in various ways, some of which display structural change at the onset of the credit crisis of 2008, but never before. By taking these networks as a proxy of interdependencies among financial institutions, we run stress-test based on Group DebtRank. Systemic risk before 2008 increases only when incorporating a macroeconomic indicator reflecting the potential losses of financial assets associated with house prices in the US. This approach indicates a promising way to detect systemic instabilities.

  18. Credit Default Swaps networks and systemic risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puliga, Michelangelo; Caldarelli, Guido; Battiston, Stefano

    2014-11-04

    Credit Default Swaps (CDS) spreads should reflect default risk of the underlying corporate debt. Actually, it has been recognized that CDS spread time series did not anticipate but only followed the increasing risk of default before the financial crisis. In principle, the network of correlations among CDS spread time series could at least display some form of structural change to be used as an early warning of systemic risk. Here we study a set of 176 CDS time series of financial institutions from 2002 to 2011. Networks are constructed in various ways, some of which display structural change at the onset of the credit crisis of 2008, but never before. By taking these networks as a proxy of interdependencies among financial institutions, we run stress-test based on Group DebtRank. Systemic risk before 2008 increases only when incorporating a macroeconomic indicator reflecting the potential losses of financial assets associated with house prices in the US. This approach indicates a promising way to detect systemic instabilities.

  19. Integrated Hybrid System Architecture for Risk Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moynihan, Gary P.; Fonseca, Daniel J.; Ray, Paul S.

    2010-01-01

    A conceptual design has been announced of an expert-system computer program, and the development of a prototype of the program, intended for use as a project-management tool. The program integrates schedule and risk data for the purpose of determining the schedule applications of safety risks and, somewhat conversely, the effects of changes in schedules on changes on safety. It is noted that the design has been delivered to a NASA client and that it is planned to disclose the design in a conference presentation.

  20. Paradoxic activation of the renin-angiotensin system in twin-twin transfusion syndrome: an explanation for cardiovascular disturbances in the recipient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahieu-Caputo, Dominique; Meulemans, Alain; Martinovic, Jelena; Gubler, Marie-Claire; Delezoide, Anne-Lise; Muller, Françoise; Madelenat, Patrick; Fisk, Nicholas M; Dommergues, Marc

    2005-10-01

    Despite advances in treatment, twin-to-twin transfusion syndrome (TTTS) still carries a high risk for perinatal mortality and morbidity. Simple blood transfer from the donor to the recipient twin cannot explain all of the features of this disease, in particular the recipient's hypertensive cardiomyopathy. We report a case in which TTTS resulted in preterm delivery with early neonatal death of both twins, allowing assessment of the renin angiotensin system (RAS) status of each fetus, both by cord blood renin and aldosterone assay and by renal immunohistochemistry. The donor had severe oliguria/oligohydramnios, whereas the recipient, in addition to severe polyuria/polyhydramnios, had cardiomyopathy, atrioventricular regurgitation, and ascites. Although immunohistochemistry demonstrated that renal secretion of renin was up-regulated in the donor and down-regulated in the recipient, cord blood levels of renin and aldosterone were similar, with high renin levels in both twins. This observation supports the hypothesis that despite renal RAS down-regulation, the recipient is exposed to RAS effectors elaborated in the donor and transferred via placental shunts. This may contribute to cardiomyopathy and hypertension in the recipient, which cannot be accounted for by hypervolemia alone. We thus hypothesized that in TTTS, the recipient's hypertensive cardiomyopathy could be due to a mechanism similar to the classical model of hypertension referred to as "2 kidneys-1 clip." Thus the hypovolemic donor twin, comparable to the clipped kidney, produces vasoactive hormones that compromise the recipient, comparable to the normal kidney, causing hypertension and cardiomyopathy.

  1. The Critical Care Obesity Paradox and Implications for Nutrition Support.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Jayshil J; Rosenthal, Martin D; Miller, Keith R; Codner, Panna; Kiraly, Laszlo; Martindale, Robert G

    2016-09-01

    Obesity is a leading cause of preventable death worldwide. The prevalence of obesity has been increasing and is associated with an increased risk for other co-morbidities. In the critical care setting, nearly one third of patients are obese. Obese critically ill patients pose significant physical and on-physical challenges to providers, including optimization of nutrition therapy. Intuitively, obese patients would have worse critical care-related outcome. On the contrary, emerging data suggests that critically ill obese patients have improved outcomes, and this phenomenon has been coined "the obesity paradox." The purposes of this review will be to outline the historical views and pathophysiology of obesity and epidemiology of obesity, describe the challenges associated with obesity in the intensive care unit setting, review critical care outcomes in the obese, define the obesity-critical care paradox, and identify the challenges and role of nutrition support in the critically ill obese patient.

  2. Weather Augmented Risk Determination (WARD) System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niknejad, M.; Mazdiyasni, O.; Momtaz, F.; AghaKouchak, A.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme climatic events have direct and indirect impacts on society, economy and the environment. Based on the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data, over one third of the U.S. GDP can be considered as weather-sensitive involving some degree of weather risk. This expands from a local scale concrete foundation construction to large scale transportation systems. Extreme and unexpected weather conditions have always been considered as one of the probable risks to human health, productivity and activities. The construction industry is a large sector of the economy, and is also greatly influenced by weather-related risks including work stoppage and low labor productivity. Identification and quantification of these risks, and providing mitigation of their effects are always the concerns of construction project managers. In addition to severe weather conditions' destructive effects, seasonal changes in weather conditions can also have negative impacts on human health. Work stoppage and reduced labor productivity can be caused by precipitation, wind, temperature, relative humidity and other weather conditions. Historical and project-specific weather information can improve better project management and mitigation planning, and ultimately reduce the risk of weather-related conditions. This paper proposes new software for project-specific user-defined data analysis that offers (a) probability of work stoppage and the estimated project length considering weather conditions; (b) information on reduced labor productivity and its impacts on project duration; and (c) probabilistic information on the project timeline based on both weather-related work stoppage and labor productivity. The software (WARD System) is designed such that it can be integrated into the already available project management tools. While the system and presented application focuses on the construction industry, the developed software is general and can be used for any application that involves

  3. Risk management model in road transport systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakhapov, R. L.; Nikolaeva, R. V.; Gatiyatullin, M. H.; Makhmutov, M. M.

    2016-08-01

    The article presents the results of a study of road safety indicators that influence the development and operation of the transport system. Road safety is considered as a continuous process of risk management. Authors constructed a model that relates the social risks of a major road safety indicator - the level of motorization. The model gives a fairly accurate assessment of the level of social risk for any given level of motorization. Authors calculated the dependence of the level of socio-economic costs of accidents and injured people in them. The applicability of the concept of socio-economic damage is caused by the presence of a linear relationship between the natural and economic indicators damage from accidents. The optimization of social risk is reduced to finding the extremum of the objective function that characterizes the economic effect of the implementation of measures to improve safety. The calculations make it possible to maximize the net present value, depending on the costs of improving road safety, taking into account socio-economic damage caused by accidents. The proposed econometric models make it possible to quantify the efficiency of the transportation system, allow to simulate the change in road safety indicators.

  4. Abdominal obesity, cardiometabolic risk and endocannabinoid system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Bittolo Bon

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Abdominal obesity is the most prevalent manifestation of metabolic syndrome and is of central importance in the definition of global cardiometabolic risk. Visceral adipose tissue releases a large number of bioactive mediators, which influence body weight homeostasis, insulin resistance, alterations in lipids, blood pressure, coagulation, fibrinolysis and inflammation, leading to increased risk of cardiovascular events and of type 2 diabetes. Lifestyle modification is the first-line approach to the management of abdominal obesity and metabolic syndrome. However for patients at higher risk, who cannot achieve an appreciable reduction in weight and in global cardiometabolic risk with lifestyle modification alone, an adjunctive long term pharmacotherapy should be considered. The endocannabinoid system activity regulates food intake and metabolic factors through cannabinoid-1 (CB1 receptor located in multiple sites, including hypothalamus and limbic forebrain, adipose tissue, skeletal muscle, liver and the gastrointestinal tract. Evidence suggests that CB1 receptor blockade offers a novel therapeutic strategy. Data from four phase III trials suggest that rimonabant, the first cannabinoid receptor inhibitor, modulates cardiometabolic risk factors, both through its impact on body weight and metabolic parameters such as HDL-cholesterol, tryglicerides, Hb1Ac, through direct pathways that are not related to weight loss.

  5. Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, K.D.; McKay, M.K.; Sattison, M.B.; Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S.T.; Rasmuson, D.M.

    1992-01-01

    The Integrated Reliability and Risk Analysis System (IRRAS) is a state-of-the-art, microcomputer-based probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model development and analysis tool to address key nuclear plant safety issues. IRRAS is an integrated software tool that gives the user the ability to create and analyze fault trees and accident sequences using a microcomputer. This program provides functions that range from graphical fault tree construction to cut set generation and quantification. Version 1.0 of the IRRAS program was released in February of 1987. Since that time, many user comments and enhancements have been incorporated into the program providing a much more powerful and user-friendly system. This version has been designated IRRAS 4.0 and is the subject of this Reference Manual. Version 4.0 of IRRAS provides the same capabilities as Version 1.0 and adds a relational data base facility for managing the data, improved functionality, and improved algorithm performance

  6. 13 CFR 120.1015 - Risk Rating System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... Lender Oversight Supervision § 120.1015 Risk Rating System. (a) Risk Rating. SBA may assign a Risk Rating to all SBA Lenders, Intermediaries, and NTAPs on a periodic basis. Risk Ratings are based on certain... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk Rating System. 120.1015...

  7. Does Corporate Governance Impact Risk Management System?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petre BREZEANU

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper brings forth the contribution of corporate governance to risk management system at the enterprise level. The research is a complex one, integrating both quantitative and qualitative information. The quantitative information consists of balance sheet and profit and loss account data while the qualitative one includes dummy variables reflecting the agency and monitoring costs which govern the relationship between managers and shareholders.

  8. Paradoxical Behavior of Granger Causality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witt, Annette; Battaglia, Demian; Gail, Alexander

    2013-03-01

    Granger causality is a standard tool for the description of directed interaction of network components and is popular in many scientific fields including econometrics, neuroscience and climate science. For time series that can be modeled as bivariate auto-regressive processes we analytically derive an expression for spectrally decomposed Granger Causality (SDGC) and show that this quantity depends only on two out of four groups of model parameters. Then we present examples of such processes whose SDGC expose paradoxical behavior in the sense that causality is high for frequency ranges with low spectral power. For avoiding misinterpretations of Granger causality analysis we propose to complement it by partial spectral analysis. Our findings are illustrated by an example from brain electrophysiology. Finally, we draw implications for the conventional definition of Granger causality. Bernstein Center for Computational Neuroscience Goettingen

  9. Paradoxes unbounded: Practising community making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tess Maginess

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The first section of this paper is a discussion of the paradoxes contained in definitionsof the word 'community' and deliberately foregrounds and makes problematicconflicting meanings before arguing for a third definition and practice of community.This third definition and practice celebrates and even transcends contradictions withinan active learning model of education in the community, aimed at tackling inequalityand prejudice. The second section offers an autocritical narrative account of aneducation in the community project that illustrates how such a practice of communitymaking can be achieved within an educational framework in which pupil is teacher andteacher is pupil and in which an imaginative, creative approach is deployed toconstruct a community making practice. The paper draws on understandings fromcommunity development, inclusive and creative education, emancipatory actionresearch, postcolonial and post-structuralist theory.

  10. Peculiarities of the risk management system organization in current conditions

    OpenAIRE

    MIKHIN P.O.

    2014-01-01

    Risk-management system organization problem is topical nowadays. The innovation activity is defined as an activity vulnerable to risk and needs more attention. The basic approaches and elements of organization structure development in risk-management system are considered to find out the best structure for business modelling usage. Balance and combination of risk-management system types are required in current conditions.

  11. Earth's inner core nucleation paradox

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huguet, Ludovic; Van Orman, James A.; Hauck, Steven A.; Willard, Matthew A.

    2018-04-01

    The conventional view of Earth's inner core is that it began to crystallize at Earth's center when the temperature dropped below the melting point of the iron alloy and has grown steadily since that time as the core continued to cool. However, this model neglects the energy barrier to the formation of the first stable crystal nucleus, which is commonly represented in terms of the critical supercooling required to overcome the barrier. Using constraints from experiments, simulations, and theory, we show that spontaneous crystallization in a homogeneous liquid iron alloy at Earth's core pressures requires a critical supercooling of order 1000 K, which is too large to be a plausible mechanism for the origin of Earth's inner core. We consider mechanisms that can lower the nucleation barrier substantially. Each has caveats, yet the inner core exists: this is the nucleation paradox. Heterogeneous nucleation on a solid metallic substrate tends to have a low energy barrier and offers the most straightforward solution to the paradox, but solid metal would probably have to be delivered from the mantle and such events are unlikely to have been common. A delay in nucleation, whether due to a substantial nucleation energy barrier, or late introduction of a low energy substrate, would lead to an initial phase of rapid inner core growth from a supercooled state. Such rapid growth may lead to distinctive crystallization texturing that might be observable seismically. It would also generate a spike in chemical and thermal buoyancy that could affect the geomagnetic field significantly. Solid metal introduced to Earth's center before it reached saturation could also provide a nucleation substrate, if large enough to escape complete dissolution. Inner core growth, in this case, could begin earlier and start more slowly than standard thermal models predict.

  12. Contextualising risk within enterprise risk management through the application of systems thinking

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Haywood, Lorren K

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available . The application of systems thinking to risk management provides the opportunity to better understand complexity by viewing risk and the consequence of change as part of overall system behaviour. System modelling tools enable organisations to better contextualise...

  13. Questionnaire-based risk assessment system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sakajo, Satoko; Ohi, Tadashi

    2004-01-01

    In order to reduce human errors efficiently, it is important to evaluate error-likely tasks and improve them. There are a lot of evaluation methods, for example, experimental evaluation methods, investigations by the expert of human factors, checking guidelines, estimating human error probabilities, and so on. There are roughly two problems in those methods. (1) Qualitative evaluation methods do not evaluate how likely human errors will occur and do not estimate how effective the countermeasure is in reducing human error. (2) Most of the quantitative evaluation methods and detailed analysis methods require expert's judgment. We developed a questionnaire-based risk assessment method and its system. In this paper, we introduce the concept of the method, realization, and applications to a maintenance procedure of a nuclear power plant and an elevator. The feature of the method is that it is so simple and the inexpert can easily evaluate the risk of human error. Furthermore, because it is provided as an application service provider system, a lot of evaluators can use it simultaneously through internet and it is easy to collect and sum up the responses. We confirmed that it is useful to evaluate the risk of human error, analyze the problem, and estimate the effectiveness of countermeasures in advance through the applications. (author)

  14. Predictors of recurrent events in patients with cryptogenic stroke and patent foramen ovale within the CLOSURE I (Evaluation of the STARFlex Septal Closure System in Patients With a Stroke and/or Transient Ischemic Attack Due to Presumed Paradoxical Embolism Through a Patent Foramen Ovale) trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elmariah, Sammy; Furlan, Anthony J; Reisman, Mark; Burke, David; Vardi, Moshe; Wimmer, Neil J; Ling, Shuqiong; Chen, Xiaohua; Kent, David M; Massaro, Joseph; Mauri, Laura

    2014-08-01

    This study sought to identify predictors of recurrent ischemic neurologic events within the CLOSURE I (Evaluation of the STARFlex Septal Closure System in Patients With a Stroke and/or Transient Ischemic Attack Due to Presumed Paradoxical Embolism Through a Patent Foramen Ovale) trial. The CLOSURE I trial found that transcatheter patent foramen ovale (PFO) closure using the STARFlex device was not superior to medical therapy in patients with cryptogenic stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) and PFO. The CLOSURE I trial is a multicenter, randomized trial of transcatheter PFO closure compared with medical therapy in patients who presented with cryptogenic stroke or TIA and had a PFO. We identified clinical predictors of recurrent ischemic stroke or TIA during 2 years of follow-up using Cox proportional hazards regression within the pooled intention-to-treat cohort. In 909 patients, the incidence of recurrent events was 5.7% with 25 patients suffering a recurrent stroke and 30 a TIA. Patients who had a recurrent event had higher body mass index (30.2 ± 6.2 vs. 28.3 ± 5.8%; p = 0.03) and more frequently had diabetes (19.2% vs. 7.1%; p = 0.0016), hypertension (46.2% vs. 30.1%; p = 0.015), and ischemic heart disease (3.8% vs. 0.9%; p = 0.05). Diabetes (hazard ratio [HR]: 3.39; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.69 to 6.84; p = 0.0007), index TIA (HR vs. stroke: 2.13; 95% CI: 1.20 to 3.80; p = 0.01), and the detection of atrial fibrillation after study enrollment (HR: 4.85; 95% CI: 2.05 to 11.47; p = 0.0003) independently predicted recurrent ischemic neurologic events. Recurrent neurologic events were more frequent in subjects with RoPE (Risk of Paradoxical Embolism) score ≤5 than those with >5 (14.5% vs. 4.2%; p Patent Foramen Ovale (PFO) [CLOSURE I]; NCT00201461). Copyright © 2014 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Systemic risk on different interbank network topologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenzu, Simone; Tedeschi, Gabriele

    2012-09-01

    In this paper we develop an interbank market with heterogeneous financial institutions that enter into lending agreements on different network structures. Credit relationships (links) evolve endogenously via a fitness mechanism based on agents' performance. By changing the agent's trust on its neighbor's performance, interbank linkages self-organize themselves into very different network architectures, ranging from random to scale-free topologies. We study which network architecture can make the financial system more resilient to random attacks and how systemic risk spreads over the network. To perturb the system, we generate a random attack via a liquidity shock. The hit bank is not automatically eliminated, but its failure is endogenously driven by its incapacity to raise liquidity in the interbank network. Our analysis shows that a random financial network can be more resilient than a scale free one in case of agents' heterogeneity.

  16. CRISIS: A System for Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erica Y. Sanchez

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available In a situation of an unexpected catastrophe, uncertainty and demand for information are constant. In such a disaster scenario, the CRISIS system arises as a tool to contribute to previous coordination, procedure validation, exercise execution, a good and frequent communication among organizations, and weakness and threat assessment for an appropriate risk management. It offers a wide variety of tools for online communication, consultation and collaboration that, up to this day, includes cartography, tasks, resources, news, forums, instant messaging and chat. As a complement, mathematical models for training and emergency management are being researched and developed. For Argentinean society, it is a necessity to switch from the current handcrafted, bureaucratic emergency management method to a decision-making management model. Previous coordination, exercise execution, a fluid communication among institutions, and threats and weaknesses assessment are required for a proper risk management. With that goal in mind, it is important to reduce confusion, avoid the duplication of efforts to fulfill the same tasks, and have access to a complete vision of the situation, generated from the data of all the organizations taking part. The CRISIS system is a secure web application, accessible to every node in a network formed by the organizations which have complementary responsibilities during prevention and response. It offers a wide variety of tools for online communication, consultation and collaboration that, up to this day, includes cartography, tasks, media (organization and resources, news, forums, instant messaging and chat. As a complement, mathematical models for training and emergency management are being researched and developed. Currently, there are toxicological and epidemiological emergency models available. The present paper analyses, from the perspectives related to risk management for emergencies and disasters, the strengths and weaknesses

  17. Inter-system LOCA risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galyean, W.J.; Kelly, D.L.; Schroeder, J.A.

    1991-01-01

    Inter-systems loss-of-coolant accidents (ISLOCAs) have been included in probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) since WASH-1400. While estimated as being relatively low contributors to core damage frequency, ISLOCAs have been identified as major contributors to risk at nuclear power plants (NPPs). They have the potential to result in core melt and containment bypass, which may lead to the early release of large quantities of fission products. Recent events at several operating reactors have been identified as ISLOCA precursors. The occurrence of these events have raised concerns that the frequency of ISLOCA sequences might be underestimated in current state-of-the-art PRAs. In order to expand the current state-of-the-art, a Nuclear Regulatory Commission research program is being conducted by ED and G Idaho, Inc. at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. The objective of the ISLOCA research program is to generate qualitative and quantitative information on the hardware, human factors, and accident consequence issues that dominate nuclear power plant risks for ISLOCA. To meet this objective, the approach being taken includes analysis of all interfaces between the primary reactor coolant system and other, lower pressure systems. This historical experience (primarily, licensee event reports) has provided the basis for determining the scope of the analysis with respect to potential failure mechanisms of the pressure isolation boundary. It is important to note that in the vast majority of these events, the dominant failure was a human error. Because of their significance, human errors are given particular attention in the present analysis

  18. six six six paradox : [luuletused] / Triin Tasuja

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Tasuja, Triin

    2008-01-01

    Sisu: six six six paradox ; cat stevens ; "vahel tundub, et mu ümber..." ; sääse ; Salaalaealised ; kolkalapsed ; longin mööda lumiseid tänavaid ; punkrock dekadents ; "Igast kirjaneitsist..." ; "mina olengi see saikochick..."

  19. Quantitative Risk Assessment for Enhanced Geothermal Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowry, T. S.; McKenna, S. A.; Hadgu, T.; Kalinina, E.

    2011-12-01

    This study uses a quantitative risk-assessment approach to place the uncertainty associated with enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) development into meaningful context and to identify points of attack that can reduce risk the most. Using the integrated geothermal assessment tool, GT-Mod, we calculate the complimentary cumulative distribution function of the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) that results from uncertainty in a variety of geologic and economic input parameter values. EGS is a developing technology that taps deep (2-10km) geologic heat sources for energy production by "enhancing" non-permeable hot rock through hydraulic stimulation. Despite the promise of EGS, uncertainties in predicting the physical end economic performance of a site has hindered its development. To address this, we apply a quantitative risk-assessment approach that calculates risk as the sum of the consequence, C, multiplied by the range of the probability, ΔP, over all estimations of a given exceedance probability, n, over time, t. The consequence here is defined as the deviation from the best estimate LCOE, which is calculated using the 'best-guess' input parameter values. The analysis assumes a realistic but fictitious EGS site with uncertainties in the exploration success rate, the sub-surface thermal gradient, the reservoir fracture pattern, and the power plant performance. Uncertainty in the exploration, construction, O&M, and drilling costs are also included. The depth to the resource is calculated from the thermal gradient and a target resource temperature of 225 °C. Thermal performance is simulated using the Gringarten analytical solution. The mass flow rate is set to produce 30 MWe of power for the given conditions and is adjusted over time to maintain that rate over the plant lifetime of 30 years. Simulations are conducted using GT-Mod, which dynamically links the physical systems of a geothermal site to simulate, as an integrated, multi-system component, the

  20. Designing cellular manufacturing system under risk conditions ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Thus we propose a mixed integer programming approach to decision making and incorporate subcontracting risk . To control the risk of sub-contracting (cost) , the two popular percentile measures of risk are applied: value-at-risk and conditional value-at-risk. This model is capable of optimizing production cost of parts and ...

  1. Cannabis and sex: multifaceted paradoxes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, S

    1982-01-01

    At the present level of ignorance about sexuality and cannabis, what rational position can be adopted? First, it must be recognized that even without cannabis, current involvement in sex-related activities may well have been called "promiscuous" by a preceding generation or two. The general loosening of morality, the erosion of family, church and other authoritarian controls, The Pill, antibiotics and other recent developments have contributed to current casual attitudes. Although one may not perceive it, counterculture beliefs have had their impact on the dominant culture. Marijuana has some enhancing effect upon sexual proceedings for some individuals. It may be sexually evocative and gratifying. Nonspecific factors play an important role in this matter. Opposite effects also occur, and an endocrinologic basis for actual diminution of drives and potency may exist. The final paradox is that cannabis' employment for sexual arousal is predominantly an activity of young adults. The older age groups most in need of sexual support and assistance are less frequently involved in its use. It is unclear why this dichotomy between need and utilization exists.

  2. The Paradox of Equal Opportunities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mitja Sardoč

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The basic assumption of the idea of equal opportunities is based on the assertion that all individuals competing for an advantaged social position should have equal opportunities, i.e., that each and every one of them should have fair opportunities to achieve a particular goal. Despite the fact that equal opportunities is one of the basic mechanisms for a just distribution of advantageous social positions, the idea of fair equality of opportunity remains divided between different competing political projects, e.g., egalitarian liberalism, libertarian political theory, multiculturalism, etc. This paper examines two basic dimensions of equal opportunities to which existing conceptions fail to offer a unanimous answer, i.e., a the issue of fairness and b the issue of the currency of fairness. The concluding part of this paper presents two basic paradoxes that determine both the direction of the discussion as well as the possible solutions to the achievement of fair equal opportunities as part of any process for competing for advantageous social positions.

  3. Perspectives on Games, Computers, and Mental Health: Questions about Paradoxes, Evidences, and Challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desseilles, Martin

    2016-01-01

    In the field of mental health, games and computerized games present questions about paradoxes, evidences, and challenges. This perspective article offers perspectives and personal opinion about these questions, evidences, and challenges with an objective of presenting several ideas and issues in this rapidly developing field. First, games raise some questions in the sense of the paradox between a game and an issue, as well as the paradox of using an amusing game to treat a serious pathology. Second, games also present evidence in the sense that they involve relationships with others, as well as learning, communication, language, emotional regulation, and hedonism. Third, games present challenges, such as the risk of abuse, the critical temporal period that may be limited to childhood, their important influence on sociocognitive learning and the establishment of social norms, and the risk of misuse of games.

  4. Aging, Metabolism, and Cancer Development: from Peto's Paradox to the Warburg Effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tidwell, Tia R; Søreide, Kjetil; Hagland, Hanne R

    2017-10-01

    Medical advances made over the last century have increased our lifespan, but age-related diseases are a fundamental health burden worldwide. Aging is therefore a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes, obesity, and neurodegenerative diseases, all increasing in prevalence. However, huge inter-individual variations in aging and disease risk exist, which cannot be explained by chronological age, but rather physiological age decline initiated even at young age due to lifestyle. At the heart of this lies the metabolic system and how this is regulated in each individual. Metabolic turnover of food to energy leads to accumulation of co-factors, byproducts, and certain proteins, which all influence gene expression through epigenetic regulation. How these epigenetic markers accumulate over time is now being investigated as the possible link between aging and many diseases, such as cancer. The relationship between metabolism and cancer was described as early as the late 1950s by Dr. Otto Warburg, before the identification of DNA and much earlier than our knowledge of epigenetics. However, when the stepwise gene mutation theory of cancer was presented, Warburg's theories garnered little attention. Only in the last decade, with epigenetic discoveries, have Warburg's data on the metabolic shift in cancers been brought back to life. The stepwise gene mutation theory fails to explain why large animals with more cells, do not have a greater cancer incidence than humans, known as Peto's paradox. The resurgence of research into the Warburg effect has given us insight to what may explain Peto's paradox. In this review, we discuss these connections and how age-related changes in metabolism are tightly linked to cancer development, which is further affected by lifestyle choices modulating the risk of aging and cancer through epigenetic control.

  5. Essays on Systemic Risk : An analysis from multiple perspectives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Muns (Sander)

    2016-01-01

    markdownabstractThis thesis is about systemic risk in the financial sector. It considers several aspects of systemic risk. It is a building block for an analysis of the impact of systemic risk on the real economy. It appears that stocks in the financial industry show a strong interdependence

  6. Geologic appraisal of Paradox basin salt deposits for water emplacement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hite, Robert J.; Lohman, Stanley William

    1973-01-01

    Thick salt deposits of Middle Pennsylvanian age are present in an area of 12,000 square miles in the Paradox basin of southeast Utah and southwest Colorado. The deposits are in the Paradox Member of the Hermosa Formation. The greatest thickness of this evaporite sequence is in a troughlike depression adjacent to the Uncompahgre uplift on the northeast side of the basin.The salt deposits consist of a cyclical sequence of thick halite units separated by thin units of black shale, dolomite, and anhydrite. Many halite units are several hundred feet thick and locally contain economically valuable potash deposits.Over much of the Paradox basin the salt deposits occur at depths of more than 5,000 feet. Only in a series of salt anticlines located along the northeastern side of the basin do the salt deposits rise to relatively shallow depths. The salt anticlines can be divided geographically and structurally into five major systems. Each system consists of a long undulating welt of thickened salt over which younger rocks are arched in anticlinal form. Locally there are areas along the axes of the anticlines where the Paradox Member was never covered by younger sediments. This allowed large-scale migration of Paradox strata toward and up through these holes in the sediment cover forming diapiric anticlines.The central or salt-bearing cores of the anticlines range in thickness from about 2,500 to 14,000 feet. Structure in the central core of the salt anticlines is the result of both regional-compression and flowage of the Paradox Member into the anticlines from adjacent synclines. Structure in the central cores of the salt anticlines ranges from relatively undeformed beds to complexly folded and faulted masses, in which stratigraphic continuity is undemonstrable.The presence of thick cap rock .over many of the salt anticlines is evidence of removal of large volumes of halite by groundwater. Available geologic and hydrologic information suggests that this is a relatively slow

  7. Evaluation of seismic reflection data in the Davis and Lavender Canyons study area, Paradox Basin, Utah

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kitcho, C.A.; Wong, I.G.; Turcotte, F.T.

    1986-08-01

    Seismic reflection data purchased from petroleum industry brokers and acquired through group speculative surveys were interpreted for information on the regional subsurface geologic structure and stratigraphy within and surrounding the Davis and Lavender Canyons study area in the Paradox Basin of southeastern Utah. Structures of interest were faults, folds, joints, and collapse structures related to salt dissolution. The seismic reflection data were used to interpret stratigraphy by identifying continuous and discontinuous reflectors on the seismic profiles. Thickening and thinning of strata and possible areas of salt flowage or dissolution could be identified from the seismic data. Identifiable reflectors included the tops of the Precambrian and Mississippian, a distinctive interbed close to the middle of the Pennsylvanian Paradox salt formation (probably the interval between Salt Cycles 10 and 13), and near the top of the Paradox salt. Of the 56 faults identified from the seismic reflection interpretation, 33 trend northwest, west-northwest, or west, and most affect only the deeper part of the stratigraphic section. These faults are part of the deep structural system found throughout the Paradox Basin, including the fold and fault belt in the northeast part of the basin. The faults bound basement Precambrian blocks that experienced minor activity during Mississippian and early Pennsylvanian deposition, and showed major displacement during early Paradox salt deposition as the Paradox Basin subsided. Based on the seismic data, most of these faults appear to have an upward terminus between the top of the Mississippian and the salt interbed reflector

  8. The obesity paradox in surgical intensive care patients with peritonitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Utzolino, Stefan; Ditzel, Christian M; Baier, Peter K; Hopt, Ulrich T; Kaffarnik, Magnus F

    2014-10-01

    Although obesity is usually regarded as a risk factor in surgical patients, various observations have revealed a better outcome in the obese. This finding is called the obesity paradox. To which group of patients the paradox applies and even whether it exists at all are matters of controversial discussion. We retrospectively analyzed 253 consecutive patients with surgical peritonitis and sepsis who needed intensive care for more than 2 days postoperative. Patients were assigned to groups according to body mass index (BMI), and groups were compared with respect to outcome parameters. In the 4 BMI groups--less than 21, 21 to 25, 26 to 30, and more than 30 kg/m(2)--mortality rate at 28 days was 73%, 50%, 42%, and 31%, respectively. The relative risk of death at 28 days in the BMI greater than 30 kg/m(2) group compared to the normal weight group (BMI, 21-25.9 kg/m(2)) was 0.66 (95% confidence interval, 0.28-0.94). However, mortality rate at 5 years was 90%, 70%, 69%, and 75%, respectively. Patients in the lowest BMI range were less likely to be discharged home. Intensive care unit and hospital length of stay was longest in the group of highest BMI, and that group had the best mean survival (386 days for BMI >30 kg/m(2) vs 113 days for BMI obesity paradox" may exist in patients with surgical peritonitis. Short-term but not long-term outcomes were improved in the obese. Concerns about obesity as a special risk factor in patients with peritonitis are not warranted according to our findings. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Four twins for a paradox: on "sensitive" twins and the biological counterpart of the "twin paradox".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ascioti, Fortunato A

    2009-03-01

    Monozygotic twin (MZT) epigenetic development, i.e., aging, diverges largely in time despite the initially very small genetic differences between MZTs. This fact is interpreted as a "sensitivity to initial conditions" phenomenon, a common property of either deterministic or stochastic chaotic systems. Some of the biotheoretical implications stemming from this empirical observation are briefly discussed here, while an actual measure of MZT epigenetic time divergence is given through an estimate of the (Stochastic) Lyapunov exponents (LEs) (i.e., the rate of exponential time divergence). These results suggest a reconsideration of the Langevin-Einstein thought experiment known as the "twin paradox." At least four twins are necessary in order to take into account the inertially independent divergent aging described here. Alternatively, LE estimates, like those given here, should be used. Finally suggested in the actual special-relativity experiments is the replacement of clocks with some nonlinear (chaotic) forced oscillator.

  10. [The paradoxical effect of persuasive communication in health education sessions].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piperini, Marie-Christine

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the communication dynamics leading to the adoption of new attitudes and cognitions in health education sessions. We examined the verbal interactions at work in persuasive communication in 16 health education sessions. The study found that the medical expertise of the educator and the initial level of commitment of the participants had a positive effect on adherence to recommendations. However, persuasive communication in health education sessions appears to involve a paradoxical process in which criticism of the message can go hand in hand with the expression of an intention to implement new risk-reducing behaviors.

  11. Risk assessment of power systems models, methods, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Wenyuan

    2014-01-01

    Risk Assessment of Power Systems addresses the regulations and functions of risk assessment with regard to its relevance in system planning, maintenance, and asset management. Brimming with practical examples, this edition introduces the latest risk information on renewable resources, the smart grid, voltage stability assessment, and fuzzy risk evaluation. It is a comprehensive reference of a highly pertinent topic for engineers, managers, and upper-level students who seek examples of risk theory applications in the workplace.

  12. Philosophical and methodological aspects of the Schroedinger paradox

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Juha, L.; Krajca, R.; Smatera, M.

    1989-01-01

    Methodological aspects of the foundations of quantum theory are dealt with in relation to the quantum description of macroscopic systems, biological in particular. Attention is paid to the philosophical content of the problems of 1) the logical status of the reduction postulate in quantum mechanics, and 2) the paradox of Schroedinger's cat, whose physical solution has not yet been attained. The problem of the quantum description of complex macroscopic systems is also treated, as is Herbert Froehlich's important concept of the excitation of dominant modes in biological systems. (author). 61 refs

  13. Radiation risks to the developing nervous system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kriegel, H.; Schmahl, W.; Stieve, F.E.; Gerber, G.B.

    1986-01-01

    A symposium dealing with 'Radiation Risks to the Developing Nervous System' held at Neuherberg, June 18-20, 1985 was organised by the Radiation Protection Programme of the Commission of the European Communities and the Gesellschaft fuer Strahlen- und Umweltforschung mbH. The proceedings of this symposium present up-to-date information on the development of the nervous system and the modifications caused by prenatal radiation there upon. A large part of the proceedings is devoted to the consequences of prenatal irradiation in experimental animals with respect to alterations in morphology, biochemistry and behaviour, to the influence of dose, dose rate and radiation quality and to the question whether damage of the brain can arise from a synergistic action of radiation together with other agents. Since animal models for damage to the human central nervous system have inherent short-comings due to the differences in structure, complexity and development it is discussed how experimental studies could be applied to the human situation. The most recent data on persons exposed in utero at Hiroshima and Nagasaki are reviewed. A round table discussion, published in full, analyses all this information with a view to radiation protection, and defines the areas where future studies are needed. Separate abstracts were prepared for papers in these proceedings. (orig./MG)

  14. Battling Arrow's Paradox to Discover Robust Water Management Alternatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasprzyk, J. R.; Reed, P. M.; Hadka, D.

    2013-12-01

    This study explores whether or not Arrow's Impossibility Theorem, a theory of social choice, affects the formulation of water resources systems planning problems. The theorem discusses creating an aggregation function for voters choosing from more than three alternatives for society. The Impossibility Theorem is also called Arrow's Paradox, because when trying to add more voters, a single individual's preference will dictate the optimal group decision. In the context of water resources planning, our study is motivated by recent theoretical work that has generalized the insights for Arrow's Paradox to the design of complex engineered systems. In this framing of the paradox, states of society are equivalent to water planning or design alternatives, and the voters are equivalent to multiple planning objectives (e.g. minimizing cost or maximizing performance). Seen from this point of view, multi-objective water planning problems are functionally equivalent to the social choice problem described above. Traditional solutions to such multi-objective problems aggregate multiple performance measures into a single mathematical objective. The Theorem implies that a subset of performance concerns will inadvertently dictate the overall design evaluations in unpredictable ways using such an aggregation. We suggest that instead of aggregation, an explicit many-objective approach to water planning can help overcome the challenges posed by Arrow's Paradox. Many-objective planning explicitly disaggregates measures of performance while supporting the discovery of the planning tradeoffs, employing multiobjective evolutionary algorithms (MOEAs) to find solutions. Using MOEA-based search to address Arrow's Paradox requires that the MOEAs perform robustly with increasing problem complexity, such as adding additional objectives and/or decisions. This study uses comprehensive diagnostic evaluation of MOEA search performance across multiple problem formulations (both aggregated and many

  15. Risk Analysis Approach to Rainwater Harvesting Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadia Ursino

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Urban rainwater reuse preserves water resources and promotes sustainable development in rapidly growing urban areas. The efficiency of a large number of urban water reuse systems, operating under different climate and demand conditions, is evaluated here on the base of a new risk analysis approach. Results obtained by probability analysis (PA indicate that maximum efficiency in low demanding scenarios is above 0.5 and a threshold, distinguishing low from high demanding scenarios, indicates that in low demanding scenarios no significant improvement in performance may be attained by increasing the storage capacity of rainwater harvesting tanks. Threshold behaviour is displayed when tank storage capacity is designed to match both the average collected volume and the average reuse volume. The low demand limit cannot be achieved under climate and operating conditions characterized by a disproportion between harvesting and demand volume.

  16. Reducing acquisition risk through integrated systems of systems engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gross, Andrew; Hobson, Brian; Bouwens, Christina

    2016-05-01

    In the fall of 2015, the Joint Staff J7 (JS J7) sponsored the Bold Quest (BQ) 15.2 event and conducted planning and coordination to combine this event into a joint event with the Army Warfighting Assessment (AWA) 16.1 sponsored by the U.S. Army. This multipurpose event combined a Joint/Coalition exercise (JS J7) with components of testing, training, and experimentation required by the Army. In support of Assistant Secretary of the Army for Acquisition, Logistics, and Technology (ASA(ALT)) System of Systems Engineering and Integration (SoSE&I), Always On-On Demand (AO-OD) used a system of systems (SoS) engineering approach to develop a live, virtual, constructive distributed environment (LVC-DE) to support risk mitigation utilizing this complex and challenging exercise environment for a system preparing to enter limited user test (LUT). AO-OD executed a requirements-based SoS engineering process starting with user needs and objectives from Army Integrated Air and Missile Defense (AIAMD), Patriot units, Coalition Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (CISR), Focused End State 4 (FES4) Mission Command (MC) Interoperability with Unified Action Partners (UAP), and Mission Partner Environment (MPE) Integration and Training, Tactics and Procedures (TTP) assessment. The SoS engineering process decomposed the common operational, analytical, and technical requirements, while utilizing the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) Distributed Simulation Engineering and Execution Process (DSEEP) to provide structured accountability for the integration and execution of the AO-OD LVC-DE. As a result of this process implementation, AO-OD successfully planned for, prepared, and executed a distributed simulation support environment that responsively satisfied user needs and objectives, demonstrating the viability of an LVC-DE environment to support multiple user objectives and support risk mitigation activities for systems in the acquisition process.

  17. THE MODEL FOR RISK ASSESSMENT ERP-SYSTEMS INFORMATION SECURITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. S. Oladko

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the problem assessment of information security risks in the ERP-system. ERP-system functions and architecture are studied. The model malicious impacts on levels of ERP-system architecture are composed. Model-based risk assessment, which is the quantitative and qualitative approach to risk assessment, built on the partial unification 3 methods for studying the risks of information security - security models with full overlapping technique CRAMM and FRAP techniques developed.

  18. Paradoxical reaction in immunocompetent children with tuberculosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carazo Gallego, Begoña; Moreno-Pérez, David; Nuñez Cuadros, Esmeralda; Mesa Fernandez, Alba; Martin Cantero, María; Obando Pacheco, Pablo; Urda Cardona, Antonio

    2016-10-01

    A paradoxical reaction (PR) during anti-tuberculosis treatment is a phenomenon that is poorly studied in immunocompetent children. It is defined as a clinical or radiological worsening of pre-existing tuberculosis (TB) disease. A retrospective descriptive study of children younger than 14 years of age was performed; these children developed PR during the years 2009 to 2014, following a diagnosis of TB. Demographic characteristics, microbiological results, treatment and outcome data were collected. Of 51 children diagnosed with TB, five (9.8%) developed a PR; four of these children had pulmonary TB and the remaining patient had miliary TB with central nervous system involvement. The PR occurred at a median of 42 days (range 23-53 days) after initiating therapy. Corticosteroids were started when PR was suspected, at a median dose of 1mg/kg/day. Clinical and radiological improvement was noted in all cases, with a median clinical regression time of 10.5 days (range 3-15 days) and a median radiological regression time of 45 days (range 26-105 days). No sequelae were described in any patient. PR in immunocompetent children during anti-tuberculosis treatment is not such an unusual reaction. Treatment with corticosteroids may be useful for the resolution of PR. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  19. Investigating a 21st Century Paradox: As the Demand for Technology Jobs Increases Why Are Fewer Students Majoring in Information Systems?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Timothy; Gao, Yuan; Sherman, Cherie; Vengerov, Alexander; Klein, Stephen

    2014-01-01

    This paper reports the results of a survey administered to 322 undergraduate business students enrolled in an introductory Information Systems course at a public liberal arts college located in the northeast US. The goal of this research was to learn, given the increased demand for technology oriented jobs, why fewer students are choosing the…

  20. An autopsy case of acute cor pulmonale and paradoxical systemic embolism due to tumour cell microemboli in a patient with breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uga, Sayuri; Ikeda, Shuntaro; Matsukage, Sho-ichi; Hamada, Mareomi

    2012-09-30

    A 62-year-old woman was admitted to our hospital because of severe respiratory distress. Diagnostic imaging studies suggested the existence of inexplicable cor pulmonale. Although we immediately sought the aetiology of her severe condition, she died suddenly on the fourth day after admission. Postmortem autopsy revealed tumour cell microemboli in the small pulmonary arteries. In addition, tumour cell embolisation identical to that in primary breast cancer cells was also observed in microvessels in systemic multiple organs, such as the liver, brain, kidneys, spleen, uterus, bone marrow and adrenal glands-with simultaneous findings of peripheral infarction. Systemic tumour cell embolism mediated through the patent foramen ovale superimposed on pulmonary tumour cell emboli (PTCE) is considered to be the mechanism underlying inexplicable cor pulmonale. The rapid aggravation of her condition terminated in death.

  1. Dueling policies : Why systemic risk taxation can fail

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bosma, Jakob J.

    Two policy instruments for the banking sector are investigated, namely systemic risk taxation and constructive ambiguity about bailout policy. Bailout expectations can induce moral hazard in the form of excessive risk taking by banks. Systemic risk taxation induces banks to prefer uncorrelated

  2. Enhancing flood risk system robustness in practice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mens, M.J.P.; Klijn, F.; Schielen, Ralph Mathias Johannes; Klijn, F.; Schweckendiek, T.

    2012-01-01

    Decisions about flood risk management are usually based on the reduction in flood risk compared to the implementation costs of the strategy. It is common practice to express flood risk (the combination of flood probabilities and potential flood damages) into a single number. The downside of this

  3. Public perceptions of energy system risks: some policy implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, K.; Otway, H.J.

    1980-01-01

    The subject is discussed under the headings: introduction; perceptions, beliefs and attitudes; the survey of public perceptions and attitudes towards energy systems; attitudes towards the five energy systems (nuclear, coal, oil, solar and hydro); perceptions of energy systems - the underlying dimensions of belief (economic benefits; environmental risk; psychological and physical risk; indirect risk; technology development); differential analysis of the perceptions of those pro and con nuclear energy; summary of perceptions of energy systems - relevance to the Austrian dilemma; policy implications. (U.K.)

  4. The Impact of Bank Restatements on Illiquidity and Systemic Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herly, Marie

    contribute more to systemic risk than other banks and thereby have spillover effects on the financial system. Overall, this paper shows firstly, that banks manage capital with loan loss provisions to avoid regulatory costs prior to a restatement. Secondly, it shows that capital providers demand a higher risk...... premium to compensate for the higher uncertainty following a restatement and that this has material effects on the financial system through higher balance sheet illiquidity and higher contribution to systemic risk....

  5. Petrohradský paradox a kardinální funkce užitku

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hlaváček, Jiří; Hlaváček, M.

    2004-01-01

    Roč. 52, č. 1 (2004), s. 48-60 ISSN 0032-3233 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/01/0034 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z1075907 Keywords : St Peterburg paradox * risk aversion * utility function cardinalization Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.156, year: 2004

  6. THE IMPLANT INFECTION PARADOX : WHY DO SOME SUCCEED WHEN OTHERS FAIL? OPINION AND DISCUSSION PAPER

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yue, C.; Zhao, Bingran; Ren, Y.; Kuijer, R.; van der Mei, H. C.; Busscher, H. J.; Rochford, E. T. J.

    2015-01-01

    Biomaterial-implants are frequently used to restore function and form of human anatomy. However, the presence of implanted biomaterials dramatically elevates infection risk. Paradoxically, dental-implants placed in a bacteria-laden milieu experience moderate failure-rates, due to infection (0.0-1.1

  7. The personal health record paradox: health care professionals' perspectives and the information ecology of personal health record systems in organizational and clinical settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nazi, Kim M

    2013-04-04

    Despite significant consumer interest and anticipated benefits, overall adoption of personal health records (PHRs) remains relatively low. Understanding the consumer perspective is necessary, but insufficient by itself. Consumer PHR use also has broad implications for health care professionals and organizational delivery systems; however, these have received less attention. An exclusive focus on the PHR as a tool for consumer empowerment does not adequately take into account the social and organizational context of health care delivery, and the reciprocal nature of patient engagement. The purpose of this study was to examine the experiences of physicians, nurses, and pharmacists at the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) using an organizationally sponsored PHR to develop insights into the interaction of technology and processes of health care delivery. The conceptual framework for the study draws on an information ecology perspective, which recognizes that a vibrant dynamic exists among technologies, people, practices, and values, accounting for both the values and norms of the participants and the practices of the local setting. The study explores the experiences and perspectives of VA health care professionals related to patient use of the My HealtheVet PHR portal and secure messaging systems. In-depth interviews were conducted with 30 VA health care professionals engaged in providing direct patient care who self-reported that they had experiences with at least 1 of 4 PHR features. Interviews were transcribed, coded, and analyzed to identify inductive themes. Organizational documents and artifacts were reviewed and analyzed to trace the trajectory of secure messaging implementation as part of the VA Patient Aligned Care Team (PACT) model. Study findings revealed a variety of factors that have facilitated or inhibited PHR adoption, use, and endorsement of patient use by health care professionals. Health care professionals' accounts and analysis of organizational

  8. Nietzsche et les paradoxes de la force

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arnaud François

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available According to this paper, the Nietzschean notion of force actually consists of a number of paradoxes, which I seek to formulate through the philosophical problems they pose. These paradoxes revolve around this fundamental paradox: on the one hand, force is able to rise and fall, but precisely how could such an increase and such a decrease be designed, as far as only what is given once for all can accept quantitative determinations? I come to draw two methods to answer this question (contrariety between two positive forces, reactivity of one force against the other, which suggest two ways of posing the biological and medical problems today, related to the notions of health and disease, in the scope of which Nietzsche has encountered it.

  9. Thermoeconomic diagnosis and entropy generation paradox

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sigthorsson, Oskar; Ommen, Torben Schmidt; Elmegaard, Brian

    2017-01-01

    In the entropy generation paradox, the entropy generation number, as a function of heat exchanger effectiveness, counter-intuitively approaches zero in two limits symmetrically from a single maximum. In thermoeconomic diagnosis, namely in the characteristic curve method, the exergy destruction...... to the entropy generation paradox, as a decreased heat exchanger effectiveness (as in the case of an operation anomaly in the component) can counter-intuitively result in decreased exergy destruction rate of the component. Therefore, along with an improper selection of independent variables, the heat exchanger...... increases in case of an operation anomaly in a component. The normalised exergy destruction rate as the dependent variable therefore resolves the relation of the characteristic curve method with the entropy generation paradox....

  10. Gender Analysis of Risk in Innovation System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ayinde, Ope; Muchie, Mammo; Abaniyan, E. O.

    2011-01-01

    This study analyzed risk by gender in innovation in Kwara state, Nigeria, using downy mildew resistant maize production as case study. The study employed primary and secondary data. The primary data were collected from well-structured questionnaires administered to both male and female producing...... the new maize variety. The analytical tools used include descriptive statistics, regression model; risk utility functions and risk parameter analysis. The result showed that invasion by animals, disease and pest, lack of access to credit wind and price fluctuation were the major risk facing the maize...... of the producers was risk averse. Gender was found responsible for the level of risk involve in the new variety maize production. Other factors that were found responsible for their level of risk involved in the production include age, position held in the society and farm size. Finally, the study recommends...

  11. Exploration Systems Development (ESD) Approach to Enterprise Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauder, Stephen P.

    2014-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Exploration Systems Development (ESD) Division has implemented an innovative approach to Enterprise Risk Management under a unique governance structure and streamlined integration model. ESD's mission is to design and build the capability to extend human existence to deep space. The Enterprise consists of three Programs: Space Launch System (SLS), Orion, and Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO). The SLS is a rocket and launch system that will be capable of powering humans, habitats, and support systems to deep space. Orion will be the first spacecraft in history capable of taking humans to multiple destinations within deep space. GSDO is modernizing Kennedy's spaceport to launch spacecraft built and designed by both NASA and private industry. ESD's approach to Enterprise Risk Management is commensurate with affordability and a streamlined management philosophy. ESD Enterprise Risk Management leverages off of the primary mechanisms for integration within the Enterprise. The Enterprise integration approach emphasizes delegation of authority to manage and execute the majority of cross-program activities and products to the individual Programs, while maintaining the overall responsibility for all cross-program activities at the Division. The intent of the ESD Enterprise Risk Management approach is to improve risk communication, to avoid replication and/or contradictory strategies, and to minimize overhead process burden. This is accomplished by the facilitation and integration of risk information within ESD. The ESD Division risks, Orion risks, SLS risks, and GSDO risks are owned and managed by the applicable Program. When the Programs have shared risks with multiple consequences, they are jointly owned and managed. When a risk is associated with the integrated system that involves more than one Program in condition, consequence, or mitigation plan, it is considered an Exploration Systems Integration

  12. A paradox in the restoration of limestone quarries on mediterranean basin: physical characteristics of substrate as determinant of dynamics of created system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jorba, M.; Hereter, A.; Josa March, R.

    2009-01-01

    The restoration of open cast mining land looks for the quick integration in the landscape and the erosion control of derelict areas. The characteristics of substrate can determinate the behaviour of novel system. The stony substrates used have a great Ks and a very low water storage capacity. This paper presents the results of an experiment performed on story mineral substrates amended with sewage sludge under Mediterranean climatic conditions in a limestone quarry in the SW of Barcelona (NE of Spain). the experiments was carried out at container scale and the aim was to evaluate the vegetation response in two substrates with different stoniness and with irrigation during dry period. Water content in the mineral substrate was monitored using vertical TDR probes during the experiment. The growth of introduced plants was monitored monthly. Throughout the experiment, populations of sown plants fluctuated according to the available water in the substrate. The irrigation applied was not sufficient to maintain the vegetation in summer (period of higher evaporative demand at that time of year). The volume of leachate was high and nitrates, sulfates and chlorides were washed. (Author) 4 refs.

  13. Petroleum tax systems and risk sharing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sunnevaag, K.

    1992-12-01

    We have focused on four different measures of risk, well known from the finance literature, namely sensitivity, standard deviation, coefficient of variation and finally probability of a negative expected net present value (NPV). While the two first measures show that the state carries most of the risk, the latter measures show the opposite result. Whether or not the project is developed on a stand-alone or on-going basis, has a crucial impact on much risk the company carries. We have also looked at the risk development as a consequence of changes in tax regime. While the two first measures of risk (sensitivity and standard deviation) show an increase in risk for the company from the pre 1987 tax regime to the 1987-1991 tax regime, and a decrease in risk as a consequence of the last change, the opposite is the case when we look at the two last measures of risk, namely coefficient of variation and probability of a negative expected NPV. The same is the conclusion for the state, except that the sign of change is the opposite that of the company. This analysis could have been extended to include a risk concept based on the well known Capital Asset Pricing Model, which is relevant risk, or covariance risk. This model concludes that the return on any risky asset is a function of the correlation between the return on this asset and the market portfolio. In this case only the projects contribution to the portfolio risk should be accounted for. For the Norwegian state it is not unreasonable to assume that the risk contribution of a medium sized oil field to a big portfolio of fields and onshore activities only is marginal. For the national or international oil company it is somewhat less marginal, and for a company developing the field on a stand-alone basis it is substantial. 12 refs., 15 figs

  14. Biotechnology System Facility: Risk Mitigation on Mir

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonda, Steve R., III; Galloway, Steve R.

    2003-01-01

    NASA is working with its international partners to develop space vehicles and facilities that will give researchers the opportunity to conduct scientific investigations in space. As part of this activity, NASA's Biotechnology Cell Science Program (BCSP) at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) is developing a world-class biotechnology laboratory facility for the International Space Station (ISS). This report describes the BCSP, including the role of the BTS. We identify the purpose and objectives of the BTS and a detailed description of BTS facility design and operational concept, BTS facility and experiment-specific hardware, and scientific investigations conducted in the facility. We identify the objectives, methods, and results of risk mitigation investigations of the effects of microgravity and cosmic radiation on the BTS data acquisition and control system. These results may apply to many other space experiments that use commercial, terrestrial-based data acquisition technology. Another focal point is a description of the end-to-end process of integrating and operating biotechnology experiments on a variety of space vehicles. The identification of lessons learned that can be applied to future biotechnology experiments is an overall theme of the report. We include a brief summary of the science results, but this is not the focus of the report. The report provides some discussion on the successful 130-day tissue engineering experiment performed in BTS on Mir and describes a seminal gene array investigation that identified a set of unique genes that are activated in space.

  15. Administrative law risks of the governmental and municipal procurement system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dyuzhikov Sergey, A.

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with the administrative law risks of the Russian system of public procurement. The authors analyze the foregoing risks in the view of the correlation of risk situations, risk actions (omission and administrative law prohibitions. The authors are considering problems of the subject and some other characteristics essential to the administrative offenses in terms of the most systemic risk in this sphere – an information risk. The materials on law practice open to general use generated in more than 25 entities of the Russian Federation were used in the paper while preparing.

  16. Tank waste remediation system programmatic risk management plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seaver, D.A.

    1995-01-01

    This risk management plan defines the approach to be taken to managing risks in the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) program. It defines the actions to be taken at the overall program level, and the risk management requirements for lower-level projects and other activities. The primary focus of this plan is on ''programmatic'' risks, i.e., risks with respect to the cost, schedule, and technical performance of the program. The plan defines an approach providing managers with the flexibility to manage risks according to their specific needs, yet creates. The consistency needed for effectiveness across the program. The basic risk management approach uses a risk management list for the program, each project, and additional lower-level activities. The risk management list will be regularly reviewed and updated by appropriate level of management. Each list defines key risks, their likelihood and consequences, risk management actions to be taken, responsible individuals, and other management information

  17. 75 FR 60749 - Policy on Payment System Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM [Docket No. OP-1345] Policy on Payment System Risk AGENCY: Board of... of its Policy on Payment System Risk (PSR). The revisions explicitly recognize the role of the... collateral. The Board also approved a biweekly daylight overdraft fee waiver of $150 to minimize the effect...

  18. The implant infection paradox: why do some succeed when others fail? Opinion and discussion paper

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C Yue

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Biomaterial-implants are frequently used to restore function and form of human anatomy. However, the presence of implanted biomaterials dramatically elevates infection risk. Paradoxically, dental-implants placed in a bacteria-laden milieu experience moderate failure-rates, due to infection (0.0-1.1 %, similar to the ones of joint-arthroplasties placed in a near-sterile environment (0.1-1.3 %. Transcutaneous bone-fixation pins breach the immune-barrier of the epidermis, exposing underlying sterile-tissue to an unsterile external environment. In contrast to dental-implants, also placed in a highly unsterile environment, these pins give rise to relatively high infection-associated failure-rates of up to 23.0 %. Herein, we attempt to identify causes as to why dental-implants so often succeed, where others fail. The major part of all implants considered are metal-made, with similar surface-finishes. Material choice was therefore discarded as underlying the paradox. Antimicrobial activity of saliva has also been suggested as a cause for the success of dental-implants, but was discarded because saliva is the implant-site-fluid from which viable bacteria adhere. Crevicular fluid was discarded as it is largely analogous to serum. Instead, we attribute the relative success of dental-implants to (1 ability of oral tissues to heal rapidly in the continuous presence of commensal bacteria and opportunistic pathogens, and (2 tolerance of the oral immune-system. Inability of local tissue to adhere, spread and grow in presence of bacteria and an intolerant immune-system are identified as the likely main causes explaining the susceptibility of other implants to infection-associated failure. In conclusion, it is the authors’ belief that new anti-infection strategies for a wide range of biomaterial-implants may be derived from the relative success of dental-implants.

  19. Evaluating paradox walnut rootstocks for resistance to Armillaria root disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    The most common Juglans regia (English walnut) rootstock in California is Paradox, a hybrid between J. hindsii (Northern California black walnut) and J. regia. Unfortuntely, Paradox rootstock is highly susceptible to Armillaria root disease. The relative resistance of new clonal, Paradox rootstock...

  20. Reversal of a Suspected Paradoxical Reaction to Zopiclone with Flumazenil

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jordahn, Zarah; Andersen, Cheme; Aaberg, Anne Marie Roust

    2016-01-01

    ), the patient became agitated and was confused, a possible paradoxical reaction to benzodiazepines. These symptoms were immediately resolved after treatment with flumazenil, usually used to reverse the adverse effects of benzodiazepines or NBRAs and to reverse paradoxical reactions to benzodiazepines. This case...... indicates that zopiclone induced behavioral changes resembling a paradoxical reaction to benzodiazepines and these symptoms may be treated with flumazenil....

  1. Increased oil production and reserves utilizing secondary/tertiary recovery techniques on small reservoirs in the Paradox basin, Utah. Annual report, February 9, 1996--February 8, 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chidsey, T.C. Jr.

    1997-08-01

    The Paradox basin of Utah, Colorado, and Arizona contains nearly 100 small oil fields producing from carbonate buildups or mounds within the Pennsylvanian (Desmoinesian) Paradox Formation. These fields typically have one to four wells with primary production ranging from 700,000 to 2,000,000 barrels of oil per field at a 15 to 20% recovery rate. At least 200 million barrels of oil is at risk of being unrecovered in these small fields because of inefficient recovery practices and undrained heterogeneous reservoirs. Five fields (Anasazi, Mule, Blue Hogan, Heron North, and Runway) within the Navajo Nation of southeastern Utah are being evaluated for waterflood or carbon-dioxide-miscible flood projects based upon geological characterization and reservoir modeling. The results can be applied to other fields in the Paradox basin and the Rocky Mountain region, the Michigan and Illinois basins, and the Midcontinent. The Anasazi field was selected for the initial geostatistical modeling and reservoir simulation. A compositional simulation approach is being used to model primary depletion, waterflood, and CO{sub 2}-flood processes. During this second year of the project, team members performed the following reservoir-engineering analysis of Anasazi field: (1) relative permeability measurements of the supra-mound and mound-core intervals, (2) completion of geologic model development of the Anasazi reservoir units for use in reservoir simulation studies including completion of a series of one-dimensional, carbon dioxide-displacement simulations to analyze the carbon dioxide-displacement mechanism that could operate in the Paradox basin system of reservoirs, and (3) completion of the first phase of the full-field, three-dimensional Anasazi reservoir simulation model, and the start of the history matching and reservoir performance prediction phase of the simulation study.

  2. Hanford waste vitrification systems risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, W.C.; Hamilton, D.W.; Holton, L.K.; Bailey, J.W.

    1991-09-01

    A systematic Risk Assessment was performed to identify the technical, regulatory, and programmatic uncertainties and to quantify the risks to the Hanford Site double-shell tank waste vitrification program baseline (as defined in December 1990). Mitigating strategies to reduce the overall program risk were proposed. All major program elements were evaluated, including double-shell tank waste characterization, Tank Farms, retrieval, pretreatment, vitrification, and grouting. Computer-based techniques were used to quantify risks to proceeding with construction of the Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant on the present baseline schedule. Risks to the potential vitrification of single-shell tank wastes and cesium and strontium capsules were also assessed. 62 refs., 38 figs., 26 tabs

  3. HUD INFORMATION SYSTEMS: Immature Software Acquisition Capability Increases Project Risks

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2001-01-01

    .... GAO has designated HUD's major program areas as high risk, in part because the department's information and financial management systems were poorly integrated, ineffective, and generally unreliable...

  4. Prediction of Banking Systemic Risk Based on Support Vector Machine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shouwei Li

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Banking systemic risk is a complex nonlinear phenomenon and has shed light on the importance of safeguarding financial stability by recent financial crisis. According to the complex nonlinear characteristics of banking systemic risk, in this paper we apply support vector machine (SVM to the prediction of banking systemic risk in an attempt to suggest a new model with better explanatory power and stability. We conduct a case study of an SVM-based prediction model for Chinese banking systemic risk and find the experiment results showing that support vector machine is an efficient method in such case.

  5. Cities at risk: status of Italian planning system in reducing seismic and hydrogeological risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grazia Di Giovanni

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Italy and its urban systems are under high seismic and hydrogeological risks. The awareness about the role of human activities in the genesis of disasters is achieved in the scientific debate, as well as the role of urban and regional planning in reducing risks. The paper reviews the state of Italian major cities referred to hydrogeological and seismic risk by: 1 extrapolating data and maps about seismic hazard and landslide risk concerning cities with more than 50.000 inhabitants and metropolitan contexts, and 2 outlining how risk reduction is framed in Italian planning system (at national and regional levels. The analyses of available data and the review of the normative framework highlight the existing gaps in addressing risk reduction: nevertheless a wide knowledge about natural risks afflicting Italian territory and an articulated regulatory framework, the available data about risks are not exhaustive, and risk reduction policies and multidisciplinary pro-active approaches are only partially fostered and applied.

  6. Periodontal herpesviruses: prevalence, pathogenicity, systemic risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slots, Jørgen

    2015-10-01

    Periodontitis is an infectious/inflammatory disease characterized by the loss of periodontal ligament and alveolar bone. Herpesviruses are frequent inhabitants of periodontitis lesions, and the periodontopathogenicity of these viruses is the topic of this review. In 26 recent studies from 15 countries, subgingival cytomegalovirus, Epstein-Barr virus and herpes simplex virus type 1, respectively, yielded median prevalences of 49%, 45% and 63% in aggressive periodontitis, 40%, 32% and 45% in chronic periodontitis, and 3%, 7% and 12% in healthy periodontium. An active herpesvirus infection of the periodontium exhibits site specificity, is a potent stimulant of cellular immunity, may cause upgrowth of periodontopathic bacteria and tends to be related to disease-active periodontitis. Pro-inflammatory cytokines induced by the herpesvirus infection may activate matrix metalloproteinases and osteoclasts, leading to breakdown of the tooth-supportive tissues. The notion that a co-infection of herpesviruses and specific bacteria causes periodontitis provides a plausible etiopathogenic explanation for the disease. Moreover, herpesvirus virions from periodontal sites may dislodge into saliva or enter the systemic circulation and cause diseases beyond the periodontium. Periodontal treatment can diminish significantly the periodontal load of herpesviruses, which may lower the incidence and magnitude of herpesvirus dissemination within and between individuals, and subsequently the risk of acquiring a variety of medical diseases. Novel and more effective approaches to the prevention and treatment of periodontitis and related diseases may depend on a better understanding of the herpesvirus-bacteria-immune response axis. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Quantum mechanics, common sense and the black hole information paradox

    CERN Document Server

    Danielsson, U H; Danielsson, Ulf H.; Schiffer, Marcelo

    1993-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to analyse, in the light of information theory and with the arsenal of (elementary) quantum mechanics (EPR correlations, copying machines, teleportation, mixing produced in sub-systems owing to a trace operation, etc.) the scenarios available on the market to resolve the so-called black-hole information paradox. We shall conclude that the only plausible ones are those where either the unitary evolution of quantum mechanics is given up, in which information leaks continuously in the course of black-hole evaporation through non-local processes, or those in which the world is polluted by an infinite number of meta-stable remnants.

  8. The obesity paradox in stroke

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Klaus Kaae; Olsen, Tom Skyhøj

    2015-01-01

    . Data include age, gender, civil status, stroke severity, computed tomography, and cardiovascular risk factors. Patients were followed up to 9·8 years (median 2·6 years). We used Cox regression models to compare risk of death and readmission for recurrent stroke in the four body mass index groups......BACKGROUND: Although associated with excess mortality and morbidity, obesity is associated with lower mortality after stroke. The association between obesity and risk of recurrent stroke is unclear. AIMS: The study aims to investigate the association in stroke patients between body mass index...... and risk of death and readmission for recurrent stroke. METHODS: An administrative Danish quality-control registry designed to collect a predefined dataset on all hospitalized stroke patients in Denmark 2000–2010 includes 45 615 acute first-ever stroke patients with information on body mass index in 29 326...

  9. A financial network perspective of financial institutions' systemic risk contributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Wei-Qiang; Zhuang, Xin-Tian; Yao, Shuang; Uryasev, Stan

    2016-08-01

    This study considers the effects of the financial institutions' local topology structure in the financial network on their systemic risk contribution using data from the Chinese stock market. We first measure the systemic risk contribution with the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CoVaR) which is estimated by applying dynamic conditional correlation multivariate GARCH model (DCC-MVGARCH). Financial networks are constructed from dynamic conditional correlations (DCC) with graph filtering method of minimum spanning trees (MSTs). Then we investigate dynamics of systemic risk contributions of financial institution. Also we study dynamics of financial institution's local topology structure in the financial network. Finally, we analyze the quantitative relationships between the local topology structure and systemic risk contribution with panel data regression analysis. We find that financial institutions with greater node strength, larger node betweenness centrality, larger node closeness centrality and larger node clustering coefficient tend to be associated with larger systemic risk contributions.

  10. Collaborative Management of Risks and Complexity in Banking Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion IVAN

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes types of risks encountered in banking systems and ways to prevent and eliminate them. Banking systems are presented in order to have a view on banking activities and processes that generates risks. The risks in banking processes are analyzed and the collaborative character of risk management is highlighted. A way to control the risk in banking systems through information security is described. Risks arise from system complexity, thus evaluation and comparison of different configurations are bases for improvements. The Halstead relative complexity function synthesizes system complexity from the point of view of the size of the variables analyzed and the heterogeneity between the variables. Section four was realized by Catalin SBORA.

  11. Issues regarding Risk Effect Analysis of Digitalized Safety Systems and Main Risk Contributors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Hyun Gook; Jang, Seung-Cheol

    2008-01-01

    Risk factors of safety-critical digital systems affect overall plant risk. In order to assess this risk effect, a risk model of a digitalized safety system is required. This article aims to provide an overview of the issues when developing a risk model and demonstrate their effect on plant risk quantitatively. Research activities in Korea for addressing these various issues, such as the software failure probability and the fault coverage of self monitoring mechanism are also described. The main risk contributors related to the digitalized safety system were determined in a quantitative manner. Reactor protection system and engineered safety feature component control system designed as part of the Korean Nuclear I and C System project are used as example systems. Fault-tree models were developed to assess the failure probability of a system function which is designed to generate an automated signal for actuating both of the reactor trip and the complicated accident-mitigation actions. The developed fault trees were combined with a plant risk model to evaluate the effect of a digitalized system's failure on the plant risk. (authors)

  12. A Paradox in Radiation Heat Transfer

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 12; Issue 4. A Paradox in Radiation Heat Transfer. J Srinivasan. Classroom Volume 12 Issue 4 April 2007 pp 85-91. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link: http://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/reso/012/04/0085-0091. Keywords. Radiation ...

  13. Micro-Macro Paradoxes of Entrepreneurship

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søgaard, Villy

    2008-01-01

    Artiklen tager afsæt i det såkaldte micro-macro paradox fra Aids-Efficiency litteraturen og argumenterer for, at en tilsvarende problemstilling bør inddrages i vurderingen af f.eks. de beskæftigelsesmæssige konsekvenser af entrepreneuriel virksomhed. Den påviser også i en gennemgang af litteratur...

  14. Art's Pedagogical Paradox

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalin, Nadine M.

    2014-01-01

    This article contributes to conversations concerning art education futures through engaging alternative relations between art, education, and democracy that mobilize education as art projects associated with the "pedagogical turn" as sites of liminality and paradox. An analysis of the art project, Pedagogical Factory, is used to outline…

  15. Gender paradoxes and agricultural monopoly in Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This is essentially paradoxical. While policies and scholarly attempts have focused the roles of mechanization, processing, subsidies, redistribution, export and, recently, climate change, the role of gender relative to sustainability, social justice, exclusion/inclusion and agricultural optimization for food security remains largely ...

  16. The Neuroethological Paradox of Animal Consciousness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutfreund, Yoram

    2017-04-01

    The more advanced our understanding of the brain of an animal is, the less likely that this animal is a conscious being. This provocative logical paradox is explained and analyzed, leading to the conclusion that to advance understanding of animal consciousness it is necessary to resolve first how our consciousness is produced by our brain. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Understanding Kinetic Energy paradox in Quantum Mechanics

    OpenAIRE

    Kornyushin, Yuri

    2008-01-01

    A concept of Kinetic Energy in Quantum Mechanics is analyzed. Kinetic Energy is not zero in many cases where there are no motion and flux. This paradox can be understood, using expansion of the wave function in Fourier integral, that is on the basis of virtual plane waves.

  18. The Paradox of the Excluded Child

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haynes, Bruce

    2005-01-01

    A paradox seems to exist where a child, of compulsory schooling age, is excluded from a school. The practice of exclusion has evolved over the almost two centuries of compulsory schooling. Abolition of corporal punishment in Western Australia and elsewhere has tended to focus attention on exclusion and the grounds justifying such action by school…

  19. The Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen paradox

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roy, S.M.

    1980-01-01

    The celebrated arguments of Einstein, Podolsky and Rosen claiming that quantum mechanics cannot be a complete theory are reviewed. Recent research climaxed by Bell's theorem shows that Einstein's locality or ''no telepathy'' postulate conflicts with quantum theory. It adds a new dimension to the paradox by catapulting the problem from the domain of metaphysics into that of experimental physics. (auth.)

  20. Inducible defences and the paradox of enrichment.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vos, M.; Kooi, B.W.; Mooij, W.M.; DeAngelis, D.L.

    2004-01-01

    In order to evaluate the effects of inducible defences on community stability and persistence, we analyzed models of bitrophic and tritrophic food chains that incorporate consumer-induced polymorphisms. These models predict that intraspecific heterogeneity in defence levels resolves the paradox of

  1. Inducible defences and the paradox of enrichment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vos, M.; Kooi, B.W.; DeAngelis, D.L.; Mooij, W.M.

    2004-01-01

    In order to evaluate the effects of inducible defences on community stability and persistence, we analyzed models of bitrophic and tritrophic food chains that incorporate consumer-induced polymorphisms. These models predict that intra-specific heterogeneity in defence levels resolves the paradox of

  2. Biofuel Mandating and the Green Paradox

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Okullo, Samuel; Reynes, F.; Hofkes, M.

    2016-01-01

    The theory on the green paradox has focused primarily on the consumption of a clean substitute produced using a static technology. In reality, we observe the gradual accumulation of the clean substitute’s capacity, suggesting that supply decisions for the clean substitute and finite carbon resource

  3. Quantum information paradox: Real or fictitious?

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    https://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/pram/073/03/0615-0622. Keywords. Quantum information paradox; black hole; eternally collapsing object. Abstract. One of the outstanding puzzles of theoretical physics is whether quantum information indeed gets lost in the case of black hole (BH) evaporation or accretion. Let us recall ...

  4. "Peasants in Cities": Paradox or Conceptual Muddle?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isaac, Barry L.

    1974-01-01

    Written in response to T. G. McGee's recent discussion of the "peasants in cities" paradox (see EJ080361), this article argues that a modified version of Eric Wolf's definition of "peasants" is the most useful one currently available. (Author/KM)

  5. Quantum Zeno and anti-Zeno paradoxes

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Continuous observation of a time independent projection operator is known to prevent change of state (the quantum Zeno paradox). We discuss the recent result that ... Author Affiliations. S M Roy1. Department of Theoretical Physics, Tata Institute of Fundamental Research, Homi Bhabha Road, Mumbai 400 005, India ...

  6. Zeno's paradox in quantum cellular automata

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groessing, G.; Zeilinger, A.

    1991-01-01

    The effect of Zeno's paradox in quantum theory is demonstrated with the aid of quantum mechanical cellular automata. It is shown that the degree of non-unitarity of the cellular automaton evolution and the frequency of consecutive measurements of cellular automaton states are operationally indistinguishable. (orig.)

  7. Joblessness in the Arctic: The Alaskan Paradox.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bland, Laurel L.

    Alaska is in the paradoxical position of having more jobs available than people, and at the same time maintaining one of the highest unemployment rates in the nation. This report discusses the nature and skills of the unemployed and underemployed, and presents tables of demographic information. While a fair percentage of Alaskan native youth…

  8. Jack London: The Paradox of Individualism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deane, Paul

    1968-01-01

    Because of their interest in naturalism and socialism, critics often overlook the major intellectual conflict in Jack London's work: the paradox of individualism. London regards society as affecting the individual in two ways: it either promotes individuality or it demands a conformity that undermines individualism. When society fails Buck in…

  9. Micro-Macro Paradoxes of Entrepreneurship

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søgaard, Villy

    2008-01-01

    Artiklen tager afsæt i det såkaldte micro-macro paradox fra Aids-Efficiency litteraturen og argumenterer for, at en tilsvarende problemstilling bør inddrages i vurderingen af f.eks. de beskæftigelsesmæssige konsekvenser af entrepreneuriel virksomhed. Den påviser også i en gennemgang af litteraturen...

  10. Audit of psychosocial risk management systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jespersen, Anne Helbo; Hasle, Peter; Hohnen, Pernille

    2014-01-01

    organizations on how to manage risks. Internal and external audits of compliance with the standard are key elements. Auditors should be competent to carry out the task and be familiar with risks of the areas they are auditing. The competences and practice of internal auditors have been studied...... in two Danish municipalities. The results show that auditors have a varied background and a limited knowledge about psychosocial risks. They have difficulties in carrying out audits and the results are mainly influenced by personal preferences....

  11. Serious reform starts with a systemic risk tax

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perotti, E.

    2010-01-01

    The recent IMF report to the G20 states that fiscal reforms are essential to recover the costs of the crisis, as well as to contain future risk creation. This column argues that progress on controlling future risk requires a direct tax on systemic risk. This would restore confidence in the ability

  12. Risk Informed Design as Part of the Systems Engineering Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deckert, George

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the importance of Risk Informed Design (RID) as an important feature of the systems engineering process. RID is based on the principle that risk is a design commodity such as mass, volume, cost or power. It also reviews Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) as it is used in the product life cycle in the development of NASA's Constellation Program.

  13. 75 FR 13145 - SBA Lender Risk Rating System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-18

    ... of Credit Risk Management, U.S. Small Business Administration, 409 Third Street, SW., 8th Floor...)(7) and 15 U.S.C. 687(f). Dated: March 12, 2010. Bryan Hooper, Director, Office of Credit Risk... SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION [Docket No. SBA-2010-0004] SBA Lender Risk Rating System AGENCY...

  14. Too similar, too different: the paradoxical dualism of psychiatric stigma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gergel, Tania Louise

    2014-08-01

    Challenges to psychiatric stigma fall between a rock and a hard place. Decreasing one prejudice may inadvertently increase another. Emphasising similarities between mental illness and 'ordinary' experience to escape the fear-related prejudices associated with the imagined 'otherness' of persons with mental illness risks conclusions that mental illness indicates moral weakness and the loss of any benefits of a medical model. An emphasis on illness and difference from normal experience risks a response of fear of the alien. Thus, a 'likeness-based' and 'unlikeness-based' conception of psychiatric stigma can lead to prejudices stemming from paradoxically opposing assumptions about mental illness. This may create a troubling impasse for anti-stigma campaigns.

  15. SYSTEM APPROACH AT RISK MANAGEMENT OF THE AUTOSERVICE ENTERPRISE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina MAKAROVA

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available In the article methods of control over risks of the service enterprises during creation of customer-oriented firm service system are analyzed. It is shown that system approach to risk management ensures the adoption of science-based solutions, minimizes consequences of risk situations. One of ways to calculate an integrated indicator of the risk of loss of the service enterprise competitiveness is described. Variants of the risk assessment to reduce the effectiveness of service enterprises by monitoring indicators based on the results of their monitoring are given.

  16. Geologic characterization report for the Paradox Basin Study Region, Utah Study Areas. Volume 6. Salt Valley

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-12-01

    Surface landforms in the Salt Valley Area are generally a function of the Salt Valley anticline and are characterized by parallel and subparallel cuestaform ridges and hogbacks and flat valley floors. The most prominent structure in the Area is the Salt Valley anticline. Erosion resulting from the Tertiary uplift of the Colorado Plateau led to salt dissolution and subsequent collapse along the crest of the anticline. Continued erosion removed the collapse material, forming an axial valley along the crest of the anticline. Paleozoic rocks beneath the salt bearing Paradox Formation consist of limestone, dolomite, sandstone, siltstone and shale. The salt beds of the Paradox Formation occur in distinct cycles separated by an interbed sequence of anhydrite, carbonate, and clastic rocks. The Paradox Formation is overlain by Pennsylvanian limestone; Permian sandstone; and Mesozoic sandstone, mudstone, conglomerate and shale. No earthquakes have been reported in the Area during the period of the historic record and contemporary seismicity appears to be diffusely distributed, of low level and small magnitude. The upper unit includes the Permian strata and upper Honaker Trail Formation. The current data base is insufficient to estimate ground-water flow rates and directions in this unit. The middle unit includes the evaporites in the Paradox Formation and no laterally extensive flow systems are apparent. The lower unit consists of the rocks below the Paradox Formation where permeabilities vary widely, and the apparent flow direction is toward the west. 108 refs., 39 figs., 9 tabs

  17. Implementing Parrondo’s paradox with two-coin quantum walks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajendran, Jishnu

    2018-01-01

    Parrondo’s paradox is ubiquitous in games, ratchets and random walks. The apparent paradox, devised by J. M. R. Parrondo, that two losing games A and B can produce a winning outcome has been adapted in many physical and biological systems to explain their working. However, proposals on demonstrating Parrondo’s paradox using quantum walks failed for a large number of steps. In this work, we show that instead of a single coin if we consider a two-coin initial state which may or may not be entangled, we can observe a genuine Parrondo’s paradox with quantum walks. Furthermore, we focus on reasons for this and pin down the asymmetry in initial two-coin state or asymmetry in shift operator, either of which is necessary for observing a genuine Parrondo’s paradox. We extend our work to a three-coin initial state too with similar results. The implications of our work for observing quantum ratchet-like behaviour using quantum walks are also discussed. PMID:29515873

  18. Configuration of risk monitor system by plant defense-in-depth risk monitor and reliability monitor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshikawa, Hidekazu; Lind Morten; Yang Ming; Hashim Muhammad; Zhang Zhijian

    2012-01-01

    A new method of risk monitor system of a nuclear power plant has been proposed from the aspect by what degree of safety functions incorporated in the plant system is maintained by multiple barriers of defense-in-depth (DiD). Wherein, the central idea is plant DiD risk monitor and reliability monitor derived from the five aspects of (1) design principle of nuclear safety based on DiD concept, (2) definition of risk and risk to be monitored, (3) severe accident phenomena as major risk, (4) scheme of risk ranking, and (5) dynamic risk display. In this paper, the overall frame of the proposed risk monitor system is summarized and the detailed discussion is made on major items such as definition of risk and risk ranking, anatomy of fault occurrence, two-layer configuration of risk monitor, how to configure individual elements of plant DiD risk monitor, and lastly how to apply for a PWR safety system. (author)

  19. Designing and evaluating risk-based surveillance systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willeberg, Preben; Nielsen, Liza Rosenbaum; Salman, Mo

    2012-01-01

    Risk-based surveillance systems reveal occurrence of disease or infection in a sample of population units, which are selected on the basis of risk factors for the condition under study. The purpose of such systems for supporting practical animal disease policy formulations and management decisions...... are: A: to detect an emerging disease or infection, if it becomes introduced into a population; or B: to substantiate freedom from a condition in a population; or C: to detect cases and estimate the prevalence of an endemic condition in a population. In risk-based surveillance these aims should be met...... applicable risk estimate for use in designing and evaluating a risk-based surveillance system would be a crude (unadjusted) relative risk, odds ratio or apparent prevalence. Risk estimates found in the published literature, however, are often the results of multivariable analyses implicitly adjusting...

  20. Risk evaluation system for facility safeguards and security planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Udell, C.J.; Carlson, R.L.

    1987-01-01

    The Risk Evaluation System (RES) is an integrated approach to determining safeguards and security effectiveness and risk. RES combines the planning and technical analysis into a format that promotes an orderly development of protection strategies, planing assumptions, facility targets, vulnerability and risk determination, enhancement planning, and implementation. In addition, the RES computer database program enhances the capability of the analyst to perform a risk evaluation of the facility. The computer database is menu driven using data input screens and contains an algorithm for determining the probability of adversary defeat and risk. Also, base case and adjusted risk data records can be maintained and accessed easily

  1. Tank Waste Remediation System Characterization Project Programmatic Risk Management Plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baide, D.G.; Webster, T.L.

    1995-12-01

    The TWRS Characterization Project has developed a process and plan in order to identify, manage and control the risks associated with tank waste characterization activities. The result of implementing this process is a defined list of programmatic risks (i.e. a risk management list) that are used by the Project as management tool. This concept of risk management process is a commonly used systems engineering approach which is being applied to all TWRS program and project elements. The Characterization Project risk management plan and list are subset of the overall TWRS risk management plan and list

  2. Paradoxical emboli following a pulmonary embolus in the presence of a patent foramen ovale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Najib, Khalid; Heckle, Mark; Goubran, Sameh; Mehta, Rhadika; Goswami, Rohan; Khouzam, Rami N

    2018-01-01

    A paradoxical embolism is defined as a systemic arterial embolus due to passage of a venous thrombus through a right to left shunt. We describe a case of acute cerebral vascular accident (CVA), right subclavian arterial embolus, and pulmonary emboli in the setting of a large patent foramen ovale (PFO). A 74-year-old woman with multiple comorbidities presented to the emergency department with acute onset of shortness of breath, weakness, and right arm pain. She was found to have bilateral pulmonary emboli, left CVA, and a right subclavian arterial embolus on computed tomography (CT). She emergently underwent embolectomy of her right upper extremity along with a fasciotomy. On chest CT, a PFO was visualized. Transesophageal echocardiogram (TEE) revealed a large PFO with at least a 3-mm primum/secundum separation and evidence of right to left shunting. Multidisciplinary consensus was that she would benefit from closure of her PFO in order to reduce her risk of further emboli. The patient was agreeable and taken to the catheterization lab where a sizing balloon over a stiff wire was advanced to measure the size of the defect. A 25-mm Cardioform device was successfully delivered across the defect. The patient was started on oral anticoagulation and antiplatelets. In summary, increase in right-sided pressures from pulmonary emboli can cause right to left shunting and lead to a paradoxical embolus. Assessment of patients who present with acute CVA or arterial embolus in the setting of pulmonary emboli with elevated right atrial pressures should include an evaluation for a PFO. Closure of PFO in these patients is of potential additive benefit.

  3. The obesity paradox in patients with severe soft tissue infections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rios-Diaz, Arturo J; Lin, Elissa; Williams, Katherine; Jiang, Wei; Patel, Vihas; Shimizu, Naomi; Metcalfe, David; Olufajo, Olubode A; Cooper, Zara; Havens, Joaquim; Salim, Ali; Askari, Reza

    2017-09-01

    The "obesity paradox" has been demonstrated in chronic diseases but not in acute surgery. We sought to determine whether obesity is associated with improved outcomes in patients with severe soft tissue infections (SSTIs). The 2006 to 2010 Nationwide Inpatient Sample was used to identify adult patients with SSTIs. Patients were categorized into nonobese and obese (nonmorbid [body mass index 30 to 39.9] and morbid [body mass index ≥ 40]). Logistic regression provided risk-adjusted association between obesity categories and inhospital mortality. There were 2,868 records with SSTI weighted to represent 14,080 patients. Obese patients were less likely to die in hospital than nonobese patients (odds ratio [OR] = .42; 95% confidence interval [CI], .25 to .70; P = .001). Subanalysis revealed a similar trend, with lower odds of mortality in nonmorbid obesity (OR = .46; 95% CI, .23 to .91; P = .025) and morbid obesity (OR = .39; 95% CI, .19 to .80; P = .011) groups. Obesity is independently associated with reduced inhospital mortality in patients with SSTI regardless of the obesity classification. This suggests that the obesity paradox exists in this acute surgical population. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Policy on synthetic biology: deliberation, probability, and the precautionary paradox.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wareham, Christopher; Nardini, Cecilia

    2015-02-01

    Synthetic biology is a cutting-edge area of research that holds the promise of unprecedented health benefits. However, in tandem with these large prospective benefits, synthetic biology projects entail a risk of catastrophic consequences whose severity may exceed that of most ordinary human undertakings. This is due to the peculiar nature of synthetic biology as a 'threshold technology' which opens doors to opportunities and applications that are essentially unpredictable. Fears about these potentially unstoppable consequences have led to declarations from civil society groups calling for the use of a precautionary principle to regulate the field. Moreover, the principle is prevalent in law and international agreements. Despite widespread political recognition of a need for caution, the precautionary principle has been extensively criticized as a guide for regulatory policy. We examine a central objection to the principle: that its application entails crippling inaction and incoherence, since whatever action one takes there is always a chance that some highly improbable cataclysm will occur. In response to this difficulty, which we call the 'precautionary paradox,' we outline a deliberative means for arriving at threshold of probability below which potential dangers can be disregarded. In addition, we describe a Bayesian mechanism with which to assign probabilities to harmful outcomes. We argue that these steps resolve the paradox. The rehabilitated PP can thus provide a viable policy option to confront the uncharted waters of synthetic biology research. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Quantum paradoxes and the collapse of orthodox materialism basics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oleg Avchenko

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Three quantum paradoxical experiments — (1 double-slit, (2 delayed choice, and (3 EPR paradox ones are considered. These experiments definitely indicate the inadequacy of the mate- rialist paradigm. The materialist doctrine can not describe, explain and predict phenomena and strangeness of quantum world, and the concept of matter is inconsistent at the quantum level. Doubtless, from the materialistic point of view, two propositions saying about that the physical properties of the system are in themselves, they are objective and independent of measurement (1\tand measurement (observation of one system does not affect the result of the measurement (observation of another system (2 are not verified by the recent experiments confirming so- called quantum non-locality or non-local realism. In relation to this, we have to doubt the truth of materialist ontology which denies the existence of transcendental objects or any extrasensory phenomena with certainty. There should be set boundaries for the materialist paradigm, beyond which it can not be accepted. The poliontichny paradigm that considers reality in potential and actual modes is proposed as an alternative world view embracing both material and quantum world. The unity of the world is not denied but it can be distinguished by two structural levels — two modes of reality evidencing the dual nature of the Universe.

  6. The Policy Maker's Anguish: Regulating Personal Data Behavior Between Paradoxes and Dilemmas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Compañó, Ramón; Lusoli, Wainer

    Regulators in Europe and elsewhere are paying great attention to identity, privacy and trust in online and converging environments. Appropriate regulation of identity in a ubiquitous information environment is seen as one of the major drivers of the future Internet economy. Regulation of personal identity data has come to the fore including mapping conducted on digital personhood by the OECD; work on human rights and profiling by the Council of Europe andmajor studies by the European Commission with regard to self-regulation in the privacy market, electronic identity technical interoperability and enhanced safety for young people. These domains overlap onto an increasingly complex model of regulation of individuals' identity management, online and offline. This chapter argues that policy makers struggle to deal with issues concerning electronic identity, due to the apparently irrational and unpredictable behavior of users when engaging in online interactions involving identity management. Building on empirical survey evidence from four EU countries, we examine the first aspect in detail - citizens' management of identity in a digital environment. We build on data from a large scale (n = 5,265) online survey of attitudes to electronic identity among young Europeans (France, Germany, Spain, UK) conducted in August 2008. The survey asked questions about perceptions and acceptance of risks, general motivations, attitudes and behaviors concerning electronic identity. Four behavioral paradoxes are identified in the analysis: a privacy paradox (to date well known), but also a control paradox, a responsibility paradox and an awareness paradox. The chapter then examines the paradoxes in relation of three main policy dilemmas framing the debate on digital identity. The paper concludes by arguing for an expanded identity debate spanning policy circles and the engineering community.

  7. Effective Methodology for Security Risk Assessment of Computer Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Daniel F. García; Adrián Fernández

    2013-01-01

    Today, computer systems are more and more complex and support growing security risks. The security managers need to find effective security risk assessment methodologies that allow modeling well the increasing complexity of current computer systems but also maintaining low the complexity of the assessment procedure. This paper provides a brief analysis of common security risk assessment methodologies leading to the selection of a proper methodology to fulfill these requirements. Then, a detai...

  8. A Case of Tuberculous Meningitis with Paradoxical Response in a 14-Year-Old Boy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murat Özer

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A clinical or radiological worsening of already existing lesions or an emergence of new lesions after beginning treatment in patients with tuberculosis (TB is referred to as the paradoxical response. This has aroused suspicion regarding the accuracy of diagnosis, the possibilities of treatment failure, or the presence of another underlying disease, and thus it is an important topic for clinicians to understand. In this article, the development of a paradox reaction in a 14-year-old male patient diagnosed with and treated for tuberculosis meningitis is reported. This pediatric patient with a healthy immune system is treated with steroids successfully and reported to elucidate the importance of managing the paradox of TB progression in spite of the appropriate anti-TB medications.

  9. DebtRank-transparency: Controlling systemic risk in financial networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thurner, Stefan; Poledna, Sebastian

    2013-05-01

    Nodes in a financial network, such as banks, cannot assess the true risks associated with lending to other nodes in the network, unless they have full information on the riskiness of all other nodes. These risks can be estimated by using network metrics (as DebtRank) of the interbank liability network. With a simple agent based model we show that systemic risk in financial networks can be drastically reduced by increasing transparency, i.e. making the DebtRank of individual banks visible to others, and by imposing a rule, that reduces interbank borrowing from systemically risky nodes. This scheme does not reduce the efficiency of the financial network, but fosters a more homogeneous risk-distribution within the system in a self-organized critical way. The reduction of systemic risk is due to a massive reduction of cascading failures in the transparent system. A regulation-policy implementation of the proposed scheme is discussed.

  10. High risk process control system assessment methodology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, Venetia [Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), RJ (Brazil); Zamberlan, Maria Cristina [National Institute of Tehnology (INT), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Human Reliability and Ergonomics Research Group for the Oil, Gas and Energy Sector

    2009-07-01

    The evolution of ergonomics methodology has become necessary due to the dynamics imposed by the work environment, by the increase of the need of human cooperation and by the high interaction between various sections within a company. In the last 25 years, as of studies made in the high risk process control, we have developed a methodology to evaluate these situations that focus on the assessment of activities and human cooperation, the assessment of context, the assessment of the impact of work of other sectors in the final activity of the operator, as well as the modeling of existing risks. (author)

  11. Colloquium: The Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen paradox: From concepts to applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reid, M.; Drummond, P.; Bowen, W.

    2009-01-01

    amplifier and optical fiber quantum soliton experiments. Current proposals for extending EPR experiments to massive-particle systems are discussed, including spin squeezing, atomic position entanglement, and quadrature entanglement in ultracold atoms. Finally, applications of this technology to quantum key....... The relationship with entanglement and Bell's theorem are analyzed, and the progress to date towards experimental confirmation of the EPR paradox is summarized, with a detailed treatment of the continuous-variable paradox in laser-based experiments. Practical techniques covered include continuous-wave parametric...

  12. Global Commodity Chains & World Income Inequalities: The Missing Link of Inequality and the “Upgrading” Paradox

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin D. Brewer

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available This article links key findings from two major research literatures within contemporary development and globalization studies: global commodity/value chains, and world income inequalities. Forging this missing link exposes what I call the “upgrading paradox” within commodity and value chain analysis. The paradox hinges on the disconnect between the global commodity/value chain literature’s focus on the potential for firms and nations to “upgrade” their position within chains and the roots of the global commodity chain construct in world-systems analysis, a theoretical framework that rejects the potential for widespread and generalizable developmental progress. Findings from the world income inequalities literature do indeed confirm the paradoxical nature of the upgrading discourse, so I conclude by discussing two potential paths for a “post-paradox” commodity chain analysis.

  13. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lee, John C; McCormick, Norman J

    2011-01-01

    ...), and failure modes of systems. All of this material is general enough that it could be used in non-nuclear applications, although there is an emphasis placed on the analysis of nuclear systems...

  14. Systemic liquidity risk: a European approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perotti, E.

    2011-01-01

    How should financial regulators address problems stemming from liquidity risk? This column argues that the liquidity coverage and net funding ratios proposed for Basel III are economically and politically impractical. It recommends using those ratios as long-term targets while imposing ‘prudential

  15. Interoperable Communications Systems: Governance and Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-12-01

    Administration, California Lutheran University 1993 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN...back to the 1980s recognizes that understanding the complex network of direct and indirect effects on risk is difficult due to the transdisciplinary

  16. Social risk assessment of large technical systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pasman, H.J.; Vrijling, J.K.

    2003-01-01

    A probabilistic approach to engineering advances. Since risk adhering to a technical structure can be determined quantitatively easier and more accurately than before, criteria for decision making are becoming more important. If the structure is in the public domain, and benefits are not felt, the

  17. Naturalness, value systems and perception of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drottz Sjoberg, B.M.

    1998-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: what is natural? And what is Nature? Are perceptions of Nature and naturalness related to perceptions of risk? This paper focuses on these aspects based on results from a Swedish representative sample (N=731), where subjects indicated e.g. the degree of naturalness of various phenomena, their views of nature, and personal life values, as well as perceptions of risk in specified contexts. The results showed a tendency to perceive as natural the phenomenon which is positively valued, i.e. what is natural is also good or desirable. Further, there were weak correlations between perceived naturalness and indicators of technological optimism, possibly indicating that persons with a more generous view of what is natural also more easily might accept change and outcomes due to human intelligence and activity. The construct of 'tampering with nature' has previously been shown to be one good predictor of perceived risk. The respondents also rated their agreement with items aimed to reflect the four 'views of nature' as suggested by Cultural Theory, i.e. nature as robust, capricious, tolerant and fragile. Nature was foremost perceived as fragile, but the main result clearly revealed that peoples' views of nature were complex and most often involved several of the suggested categories. The discussion focuses on the possible implications on environmental concern and risk perception given that Nature would develop into an undesirable type of locality. (author)

  18. Responsible Investment: Taxes and Paradoxes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Knuutinen Reijo

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Taxes have become an issue of corporate social responsibility (CSR, but the role of taxation is to some extent an ambiguous and controversial issue in the CSR framework. Similarly, another unclear question is what role investors who are committed to sustainable and responsible investment (SRI see taxes as having on their environmental, social, and governance (ESG agenda. Corporate taxes have an inverse relationship with the return of the investors: taxes paid directly affect what is left on the bottom line, reducing the return of investors. However, investors are now more aware of tax-related risks, which can include different forms of reputation risk. Corporate tax planning may increase the returns, but those increased returns are riskier. This study focuses particularly on the relationship between SRI and taxation. We find that tax matters are considered to be on the ESG agenda, but their role and significance in the ESG analysis is unclear.

  19. Risk Management of Large RC Structures within Spatial Information System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Qin, Jianjun; Faber, Michael Havbro

    2012-01-01

    Abstract: The present article addresses the development of a spatial information system (SIS), which aims to facilitate risk management of large‐scale concrete structures. The formulation of the SIS is based on ideas developed in the context of indicator‐based risk modeling for concrete structures...... subject to corrosion and geographical information system based risk modeling concerning large‐scale risk management. The term “risk management” here refers in particular to the process of condition assessment and optimization of the inspection and repair activities. The SIS facilitates the storage...... and handling of all relevant information to the risk management. The probabilistic modeling utilized in the condition assessment takes basis in a Bayesian hierarchical modeling philosophy. It facilitates the updating of risks as well as optimizing inspection plans whenever new information about the condition...

  20. Retroflection from slanted coastlines-circumventing the "vorticity paradox"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Zharkov

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The balance of long-shore momentum flux requires that the solution of zonally retroflecting currents involve ring shedding on the western side. An important aspect of the ring dynamics is the ring intensity α (analogous to the Rossby number, which reaches its maximum value of unity when the upstream potential vorticity (PV is zero. Friction leads to a slow-down and a decrease in α. The main difficulty is that the solution of the system of equations for conservation of mass and momentum of zonal currents leads to the conclusion that the ratio (Φ of the mass flux going into the rings and the total incoming mass flux is approximately 4α/(1+2α. This yields the "vorticity paradox" – only relatively weak rings (α≤1/2 could satisfy the necessary condition Φ≤1. Physically, this means, for example, that the momentum-flux of zero PV currents upstream is so high that, no matter how many rings are produced and, no matter what size they are, they cannot compensate for it.

    To avoid this paradox, we develop a nonlinear analytical model of retroflection from a slanted non-zonal coastline. We show that when the slant of coastline (γ exceeds merely 150, Φ does not reach unity regardless of the value of α. Namely, the paradox disappears even for small slants. Our slowly varying nonlinear solution does not only let us circumvent the paradox. It also gives a detailed description of the rings growth rate and the mass flux going into the rings as a function of time. For example, in the case of zero PV and zero thickness of the upper layer along the coastline, the maximal values of Φ can be approximately expressed as, 1.012+0.32exp(−γ/3.41−γ/225. Interestingly, for significant slants γ≥300, the rings reach a terminal size corresponding to a balance between the β-force and both the upstream and downstream momentum fluxes. This terminal size is unrelated to the ultimate

  1. Risk-based assessment of the surety of information systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jansma, R.M.; Fletcher, S.K.; Murphy, M.D.; Lim, J.J.; Wyss, G.D.

    1996-07-01

    When software is used in safety-critical, security-critical, or mission-critical situations, it is imperative to understand and manage the risks involved. A risk assessment methodology and toolset have been developed which are specific to software systems and address a broad range of risks including security, safety, and correct operation. A unique aspect of this methodology is the use of a modeling technique that captures interactions and tradeoffs among risk mitigators. This paper describes the concepts and components of the methodology and presents its application to example systems.

  2. Computer aided approach for qualitative risk assessment of engineered systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowley, W.K.; Arendt, J.S.; Fussell, J.B.; Rooney, J.J.; Wagner, D.P.

    1978-01-01

    This paper outlines a computer aided methodology for determining the relative contributions of various subsystems and components to the total risk associated with an engineered system. Major contributors to overall task risk are identified through comparison of an expected frequency density function with an established risk criterion. Contributions that are inconsistently high are also identified. The results from this analysis are useful for directing efforts for improving system safety and performance. An analysis of uranium hexafluoride handling risk at a gaseous diffusion uranium enrichment plant using a preliminary version of the computer program EXCON is briefly described and illustrated

  3. A Risk Assessment System with Automatic Extraction of Event Types

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capet, Philippe; Delavallade, Thomas; Nakamura, Takuya; Sandor, Agnes; Tarsitano, Cedric; Voyatzi, Stavroula

    In this article we describe the joint effort of experts in linguistics, information extraction and risk assessment to integrate EventSpotter, an automatic event extraction engine, into ADAC, an automated early warning system. By detecting as early as possible weak signals of emerging risks ADAC provides a dynamic synthetic picture of situations involving risk. The ADAC system calculates risk on the basis of fuzzy logic rules operated on a template graph whose leaves are event types. EventSpotter is based on a general purpose natural language dependency parser, XIP, enhanced with domain-specific lexical resources (Lexicon-Grammar). Its role is to automatically feed the leaves with input data.

  4. UML-oriented Risk Analysis in Manufacturing Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Jirsa

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Whenever we want to avoid failures or hazardous events in today’s complex technological systems, it is advisable to carry out appropriate risk management. One of the most important aspects of risk management is the risk analysis process. The aim of this paper is to show a new risk analysis method based on the Unified Modelling Language (UML, which is successfully used in software engineering for describing the problem domain. The paper also includes a small practical example. It also shows a new risk analysis method based on an example of an unreeling process in cable manufacturing.

  5. Galilean Hydrostatic Paradox and Archimedes Law

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Lang da Silveira

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Traditional pedagogy has underestimated the presence of some mysteries and paradoxes in Physics teaching. Naïve inductivistic approaches  in Science education have also contributed to the fact that some important theoretical assumptions are usually discarded. Historical, conceptual  and experimental analysis of Physics development can positively contribute to restore the importance of such assumptions in physics teaching. In this article we analyze the so  called  Galilean Hydrostatic Paradox, a  mystery  directly connected  to  Archimedes Law of  Hydrostatics. Experimental analysis   of   this   theme is presented in a well-documented  photographic way and conclusions are drawn as an example to show the extent to which a competent analysis of such hidden assumptions can subvert traditional and orthodox education in Physics.

  6. The stability of ecosystems: A brief overview of the paradox of ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In theory, enrichment of resource in a predator–prey model leads to desta bilization of the system, thereby collapsing the trophic interaction, a phe nomenon referred to as ``the paradox of enrichment”. After it was first pro posed by Rosenzweig (1971), a number of subsequent studies were carried out on this dilemma over ...

  7. Employability and job security, friends or foes? The paradoxical reception of employacurity in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    H.D. Pruijt (Hans); P. Dérogée (Pascal)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractAbstract. The idea that investing in employability is the answer to creative destruction caused insecurity originated in the context of Silicon Valley. Paradoxically, this ‘employacurity’ discourse has taken root in the Netherlands, a country in which the employment system is firmly

  8. Simpson's Paradox and Confounding Factors in University Rankings: A Demonstration Using QS 2011-12 Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soh, Kay Cheng

    2012-01-01

    University ranking has become ritualistic in higher education. Ranking results are taken as bona fide by rank users. Ranking systems usually use large data sets from highly heterogeneous universities of varied backgrounds. This poses the problem of Simpson's Paradox and the lurking variables causing it. Using QS 2011-2012 Ranking data, the dual…

  9. Timelike symmetry of the quantum transition and Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen paradox

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costa de Beauregard, Olivier

    1976-01-01

    The non-locality in the paradox is very close to that of Feynman's electron-positron system: the sum of two timelike vectors with 4th components of opposite signs may be spacelike. The intrinsic time symmetry of the quantum transition consists in the presence of both the delayed and the advanced wave inside the ''collapsed'' wave [fr

  10. Paradoxical and less paradoxical effects of thought suppression: a critical review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rassin, E; Merckelbach, H; Muris, P

    2000-11-01

    The process of consciously trying to avoid certain thoughts is referred to as thought suppression. Experimental research has documented that thought suppression may have paradoxical effects in that it leads to an increased frequency of the to-be-suppressed thought intruding consciousness. It has also been claimed that suppression has disruptive effects on episodic memory (i.e., a less paradoxical effect). The present article critically evaluates studies on the paradoxical and less paradoxical effects of thought suppression. More specifically, the issue of whether thought suppression plays a causative role in the development of various psychopathological symptoms is addressed. While laboratory studies have come up with highly consistent findings about the paradoxical effects of thought suppression, there is, as yet, little reason to believe that such effects are implicated in the etiology of obsessions, phobias, or other psychopathological conditions. Relatively little work has been done on the alleged memory effects of thought suppression. The studies that have examined this issue have found mixed results. Accordingly, the case for the amnestic power of thought suppression is weak. Alternative explanations and competing theories are discussed, and it is concluded that research concerned with the psychopathological consequences of thought suppression would benefit from development of better taxonomies of intrusive thinking and cognitive avoidance strategies.

  11. 'Climategate': Paradoxical Metaphors and Political Paralysis

    OpenAIRE

    Brigitte Nerlich

    2010-01-01

    Climate scepticism in the sense of climate denialism or contrarianism is not a new phenomenon, but it has recently been very much in the media spotlight. When, in November 2009, emails by climate scientists were published on the internet without their authors’ consent, a debate began in which climate sceptic bloggers used an extended network of metaphors to contest (climate) science. This article follows the so-called ‘climategate’ debate on the web and shows how a paradoxical mixture of reli...

  12. Unearthing the Banach–Tarski Paradox

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    This goes under the name of Banach–Tarski paradox. The whole magic lies in the word 'pieces'. The pieces ... tinct classes. Let us select one representative point f(¯x) in [0,1) corresponding to each class ¯x. ... ble as 0 ≤ r(n) < r(m) < 1 and E contains only one element from any class. Therefore, we have proved our claims, ...

  13. Two Paradoxes in Linear Regression Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    FENG, Ge; PENG, Jing; TU, Dongke; ZHENG, Julia Z.; FENG, Changyong

    2016-01-01

    Summary Regression is one of the favorite tools in applied statistics. However, misuse and misinterpretation of results from regression analysis are common in biomedical research. In this paper we use statistical theory and simulation studies to clarify some paradoxes around this popular statistical method. In particular, we show that a widely used model selection procedure employed in many publications in top medical journals is wrong. Formal procedures based on solid statistical theory shou...

  14. The paradox of declining female happiness

    OpenAIRE

    Stevenson, Betsey; Wolfers, Justin

    2009-01-01

    By many objective measures the lives of women in the United States have improved over the past 35 years, yet we show that measures of subjective well-being indicate that women's happiness has declined both absolutely and relative to men. The paradox of women's declining relative well-being is found across various datasets, measures of subjective well-being, and is pervasive across demographic groups and industrialized countries. Relative declines in female happiness have eroded a gender gap i...

  15. Fermi's paradox: The last challenge for copernicanism?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ćirković M.M.

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available We review Fermi's paradox (or the 'Great Silence' problem, not only arguably the oldest and crucial problem for the Search for ExtraTerrestrial Intelligence (SETI, but also a conundrum of profound scientific, philosophical and cultural importance. By a simple analysis of observation selection effects, the correct resolution of Fermi's paradox is certain to tell us something about the future of humanity. Already more than three quarters of century old puzzle and a quarter of century since the last major review paper in the field by G. David Brin has generated many ingenious discussions and hypotheses. We analyze the often tacit methodological assumptions built in various answers to this puzzle and attempt a new classification of the numerous solutions proposed in an already huge literature on the subject. Finally, we consider the ramifications of various classes of hypotheses for the practical SETI projects. Somewhat paradoxically, it seems that the class of (neocatastrophic hypotheses gives, on the balance, the strongest justification to optimism regarding our current and near-future SETI efforts.

  16. Obesity and poverty paradox in developed countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wioletta Żukiewicz-Sobczak

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Obesity is a civilization disease and the proportion of people suffering from it continues to grow, especially in the developed countries. Number of obese people in Europe has increased threefold over the last 20 years. The paradox of obesity and poverty relationship is observed especially in the developed and developing countries. In developing countries, along with economic development and income growth, the number of people with overweight and obesity is increasing. This paradox has a relationship with both the easy availability and low cost of highly processed foods containing ‘empty calories’ and no nutritional value. To date, this paradox has been described in the United States and the United Kingdom, although many European countries are also experiencing high percentages of obese people. Among the reasons for the growing obesity in the population of poor people are: higher unemployment, lower education level, and irregular meals. Another cause of obesity is low physical activity, which among the poor is associated with a lack of money for sports equipment. Due to the large rate of deaths caused by diseases directly linked to obesity, the governments of many countries implement prevention programmes of overweight and obesity. These programmes are based primarily on educating the public about a healthy lifestyle based on healthy eating, daily physical activity and avoiding alcohol and cigarettes.

  17. Identifying Quantum Structures in the Ellsberg Paradox

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aerts, Diederik; Sozzo, Sandro; Tapia, Jocelyn

    2014-10-01

    Empirical evidence has confirmed that quantum effects occur frequently also outside the microscopic domain, while quantum structures satisfactorily model various situations in several areas of science, including biological, cognitive and social processes. In this paper, we elaborate a quantum mechanical model which faithfully describes the Ellsberg paradox in economics, showing that the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics is capable to represent the ambiguity present in this kind of situations, because of the presence of contextuality. Then, we analyze the data collected in a concrete experiment we performed on the Ellsberg paradox and work out a complete representation of them in complex Hilbert space. We prove that the presence of quantum structure is genuine, that is, interference and superposition in a complex Hilbert space are really necessary to describe the conceptual situation presented by Ellsberg. Moreover, our approach sheds light on `ambiguity laden' decision processes in economics and decision theory, and allows to deal with different Ellsberg-type generalizations, e.g., the Machina paradox.

  18. Decision-Making for Systemic Water Risks: Insights From a Participatory Risk Assessment Process in Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wyrwoll, Paul R.; Grafton, R. Quentin; Daniell, Katherine A.; Chu, Hoang Long; Ringler, Claudia; Lien, Le Thi Ha; Khoi, Dang Kim; Do, Thang Nam; Tuan, Nguyen Do Anh

    2018-03-01

    Systemic threats to food-energy-environment-water systems require national policy responses. Yet complete control of these complex systems is impossible and attempts to mitigate systemic risks can generate unexpected feedback effects. Perverse outcomes from national policy can emerge from the diverse responses of decision-makers across different levels and scales of resource governance. Participatory risk assessment processes can help planners to understand subnational dynamics and ensure that policies do not undermine the resilience of social-ecological systems and infrastructure networks. Researchers can play an important role in participatory processes as both technical specialists and brokers of stakeholder knowledge on the feedbacks generated by systemic risks and policy decisions. Here, we evaluate the use of causal modeling and participatory risk assessment to develop national policy on systemic water risks. We present an application of the Risks and Options Assessment for Decision-Making (ROAD) process to a district of Vietnam where national agricultural water reforms are being piloted. The methods and results of this project provide general insights about how to support resilient decision-making, including the transfer of knowledge across administrative levels, identification of feedback effects, and the effective implementation of risk assessment processes.

  19. Systemic immunomodulatory strategies in high-risk corneal transplantation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tulio B Abud

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The cornea is the most commonly transplanted tissue in the body. Although corneal grafts generally have high success rates, transplantation onto inflamed and vascularized host beds, or so-called high-risk corneal transplantation, has a high rate of graft rejection. The management of this high-risk corneal transplantation is challenging and involves numerous measures. One of the key measures to prevent graft rejection in these cases is the use of systemic immunosuppressive agents. In this article, we will review the systemic immunosuppressive agents most commonly used for high-risk corneal transplantation, which include corticosteroids, cysclosporine A, tacrolimus, mycophenolate mofetil, and rapamycin. Benefits, risks, and published data on the use of these medications for high-risk corneal transplantation will be detailed. We will also summarize novel immunoregulatory approaches that may be used to prevent graft rejection in high-risk corneal transplantation.

  20. Sustainable nanotechnology decision support system: bridging risk management, sustainable innovation and risk governance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subramanian, Vrishali; Semenzin, Elena; Hristozov, Danail; Zabeo, Alex; Malsch, Ineke; McAlea, Eamonn; Murphy, Finbarr; Mullins, Martin; van Harmelen, Toon; Ligthart, Tom; Linkov, Igor; Marcomini, Antonio

    2016-04-01

    The significant uncertainties associated with the (eco)toxicological risks of engineered nanomaterials pose challenges to the development of nano-enabled products toward greatest possible societal benefit. This paper argues for the use of risk governance approaches to manage nanotechnology risks and sustainability, and considers the links between these concepts. Further, seven risk assessment and management criteria relevant to risk governance are defined: (a) life cycle thinking, (b) triple bottom line, (c) inclusion of stakeholders, (d) risk management, (e) benefit-risk assessment, (f) consideration of uncertainty, and (g) adaptive response. These criteria are used to compare five well-developed nanotechnology frameworks: International Risk Governance Council framework, Comprehensive Environmental Assessment, Streaming Life Cycle Risk Assessment, Certifiable Nanospecific Risk Management and Monitoring System and LICARA NanoSCAN. A Sustainable Nanotechnology Decision Support System (SUNDS) is proposed to better address current nanotechnology risk assessment and management needs, and makes. Stakeholder needs were solicited for further SUNDS enhancement through a stakeholder workshop that included representatives from regulatory, industry and insurance sectors. Workshop participants expressed the need for the wider adoption of sustainability assessment methods and tools for designing greener nanomaterials.

  1. Sustainable nanotechnology decision support system: bridging risk management, sustainable innovation and risk governance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Subramanian, Vrishali, E-mail: vrishali.subramanian@unive.it; Semenzin, Elena; Hristozov, Danail; Zabeo, Alex [University Ca’ Foscari of Venice, Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics (Italy); Malsch, Ineke [Malsch TechnoValuation (Netherlands); McAlea, Eamonn; Murphy, Finbarr; Mullins, Martin [University of Limerick, Kemmy Business School (Ireland); Harmelen, Toon van; Ligthart, Tom [TNO (Netherlands); Linkov, Igor; Marcomini, Antonio, E-mail: marcom@unive.it [University Ca’ Foscari of Venice, Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics (Italy)

    2016-04-15

    The significant uncertainties associated with the (eco)toxicological risks of engineered nanomaterials pose challenges to the development of nano-enabled products toward greatest possible societal benefit. This paper argues for the use of risk governance approaches to manage nanotechnology risks and sustainability, and considers the links between these concepts. Further, seven risk assessment and management criteria relevant to risk governance are defined: (a) life cycle thinking, (b) triple bottom line, (c) inclusion of stakeholders, (d) risk management, (e) benefit–risk assessment, (f) consideration of uncertainty, and (g) adaptive response. These criteria are used to compare five well-developed nanotechnology frameworks: International Risk Governance Council framework, Comprehensive Environmental Assessment, Streaming Life Cycle Risk Assessment, Certifiable Nanospecific Risk Management and Monitoring System and LICARA NanoSCAN. A Sustainable Nanotechnology Decision Support System (SUNDS) is proposed to better address current nanotechnology risk assessment and management needs, and makes. Stakeholder needs were solicited for further SUNDS enhancement through a stakeholder workshop that included representatives from regulatory, industry and insurance sectors. Workshop participants expressed the need for the wider adoption of sustainability assessment methods and tools for designing greener nanomaterials.

  2. Sustainable nanotechnology decision support system: bridging risk management, sustainable innovation and risk governance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Subramanian, Vrishali; Semenzin, Elena; Hristozov, Danail; Zabeo, Alex; Malsch, Ineke; McAlea, Eamonn; Murphy, Finbarr; Mullins, Martin; Harmelen, Toon van; Ligthart, Tom; Linkov, Igor; Marcomini, Antonio

    2016-01-01

    The significant uncertainties associated with the (eco)toxicological risks of engineered nanomaterials pose challenges to the development of nano-enabled products toward greatest possible societal benefit. This paper argues for the use of risk governance approaches to manage nanotechnology risks and sustainability, and considers the links between these concepts. Further, seven risk assessment and management criteria relevant to risk governance are defined: (a) life cycle thinking, (b) triple bottom line, (c) inclusion of stakeholders, (d) risk management, (e) benefit–risk assessment, (f) consideration of uncertainty, and (g) adaptive response. These criteria are used to compare five well-developed nanotechnology frameworks: International Risk Governance Council framework, Comprehensive Environmental Assessment, Streaming Life Cycle Risk Assessment, Certifiable Nanospecific Risk Management and Monitoring System and LICARA NanoSCAN. A Sustainable Nanotechnology Decision Support System (SUNDS) is proposed to better address current nanotechnology risk assessment and management needs, and makes. Stakeholder needs were solicited for further SUNDS enhancement through a stakeholder workshop that included representatives from regulatory, industry and insurance sectors. Workshop participants expressed the need for the wider adoption of sustainability assessment methods and tools for designing greener nanomaterials.

  3. The Greek chorus and other techniques of paradoxical therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papp, P

    1980-03-01

    This paper has described some of the interventions developed at the Ackerman Brief Therapy Project in treating the families of symptomatic children. The interventions are based upon a differential diagnosis of the family system and upon an evaluation of that system's resistance to change. They are classified as compliance-based or defiance-based, depending upon the family's degree of anxiety, motivation, and resistance. Paradoxical interventions, which are defiance-based, are used as a clinical tool in dealing with resistance and circumventing the power struggle between therapist and family. A consultation group acting as a Greek chorus underlines the therapist's interventions and comments on the consequences of systemic change. This group is also sometimes used to form a therapeutic triangle among the family, therapist and group, with the therapist and group debating over the family's ability to change.

  4. Risk Assessment of Power System considering the CPS of Transformers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Long; Peng, Zewu; Liu, Xindong; Li, Canbing; Chen, Can

    2018-02-01

    This paper constructs a risk assessment framework of power system for device-level information security, analyzes the typical protection configuration of power transformers, and takes transformer gas protection and differential protection as examples to put forward a method that analyzes the cyber security in electric power system, which targets transformer protection parameters. We estimate the risk of power system accounting for the cyber security of transformer through utilizing Monte Carlo method and two indexes, which are the loss of load probability and the expected demand not supplied. The proposed approach is tested with IEEE 9 bus system and IEEE 118 bus system.

  5. Systemic Risk and Optimal Regulatory Architecture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Espinosa-Vega, M.A.; Kahn, C.; Matta, R.; Sole, J.

    2011-01-01

    Until the recent financial crisis, the safety and soundness of financial institutions was assessed from the perspective of the individual institution. The financial crisis highlighted the need to take systemic externalities seriously when rethinking prudential oversight and the regulatory

  6. Proactive Management of Aviation System Safety Risk

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Aviation safety systems have undergone dramatic changes over the past fifty years. If you take a look at the early technology in this area, you'll see that there was...

  7. Space systems engineering and risk management - joined at the hip

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, James R.

    2004-01-01

    This paper explores the separate skills and capabilities practiced until now, and the powerful coupling to be achieved, practically and effectively, in implementing a space mission, from inception (pre-phase A) to the end of Operations (phase E). The use of risk assessment techniques in balancing cost risk against performance risk, and the application of the systems engineering team in these trades, is the key to achieving this new implementation paradigm.

  8. Risk-benefit evaluation for large technological systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okrent, D.

    1979-01-01

    The related topics of risk-benefit analysis, risk analysis, and risk-acceptance criteria (How safe is safe enough) are of growing importance. An interdisciplinary study on various aspects of these topics, including applications to nuclear power, was recently completed at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), with the support of the National Science Foundation. In addition to more than 30 topical reports and various open-literature publications, a final report (UCLA-ENG-7777) to the study, titled ''A Generalized Evaluation Approach to Risk--Benefit for Large Technological Systems and Its Application to Nuclear Power'', was issued in early 1978. This article briefly summarizes portions of the final report dealing with general aspects of risk-benefit methodology, societal knowledge and perception of risk, and risk-acceptance criteria

  9. Revisiting the 'Low BirthWeight paradox' using a model-based definition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juárez, Sol; Ploubidis, George B; Clarke, Lynda

    2014-01-01

    Immigrant mothers in Spain have a lower risk of delivering Low BirthWeight (LBW) babies in comparison to Spaniards (LBW paradox). This study aimed at revisiting this finding by applying a model-based threshold as an alternative to the conventional definition of LBW. Vital information data from Madrid was used (2005-2006). LBW was defined in two ways (less than 2500g and Wilcox's proposal). Logistic and linear regression models were run. According to common definition of LBW (less than 2500g) there is evidence to support the LBW paradox in Spain. Nevertheless, when an alternative model-based definition of LBW is used, the paradox is only clearly present in mothers from the rest of Southern America, suggesting a possible methodological bias effect. In the future, any examination of the existence of the LBW paradox should incorporate model-based definitions of LBW in order to avoid methodological bias. Copyright © 2013 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  10. The obesity paradox in patients with peripheral arterial disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galal, Wael; van Gestel, Yvette R B M; Hoeks, Sanne E; Sin, Don D; Winkel, Tamara A; Bax, Jeroen J; Verhagen, Hence; Awara, Adel M M; Klein, Jan; van Domburg, Ron T; Poldermans, Don

    2008-11-01

    Cardiac events are the predominant cause of late mortality in patients with peripheral arterial disease (PAD). In these patients, mortality decreases with increasing body mass index (BMI). COPD is identified as a cardiac risk factor, which preferentially affects underweight individuals. Whether or not COPD explains the obesity paradox in PAD patients is unknown. We studied 2,392 patients who underwent major vascular surgery at one teaching institution. Patients were classified according to COPD status and BMIs (ie, underweight, normal, overweight, and obese), and the relationship between these variables and all-cause mortality was determined using a Cox regression analysis. The median follow-up period was 4.37 years (interquartile range, 1.98 to 8.47 years). The overall mortality rates among underweight, normal, overweight, and obese patients were 54%, 50%, 40%, and 31%, respectively (p < 0.001). The distribution of COPD severity classes showed an increased prevalence of moderate-to-severe COPD in underweight patients. In the entire population, BMI (continuous) was associated with increased mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 0.96; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.94 to 0.98). In addition, patients who were classified as being underweight were at increased risk for mortality (HR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.00 to 2.01). However, after adjusting for COPD severity the relationship was no longer significant (HR, 1.29; 95% CI, 0.91 to 1.93). The excess mortality among underweight patients was largely explained by the overrepresentation of individuals with moderate-to-severe COPD. COPD may in part explain the "obesity paradox" in the PAD population.

  11. Development of a system utilizing data of risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagasaka, Akihiko; Takano, Kenichi; Ebisu, Mitsuhiro; Aikawa, Tadashi; Hayase, Kenichi

    2004-01-01

    This report deals with a concrete method of utilizing data of risk assessment. First, the authors point out the necessity to assess all stages of jobs (planning, meeting with contractors, performing phase of task, etc.) in risk assessment bout jobs in electric power company, because most jobs are performed by contract system and risks of a job are distributed over electric company, contractors and subcontractors. Secondly, risks estimated from past accidents and near-miss events must be included. If these 2 requirements are fulfilled, data of risk assessment can be more useful. Then below 4 forms of present data of risk assessment were developed. A form to be used in job planning stage in electric companies for efficient investment planning in safety measures. A form to be used in meetings between electric companies and contractors for checking accident prevention methods. A form to be used in meetings between contractors and subcontractors for enhancing a shared awareness of risk. A form to be used in tool box meetings for confirming safe condition and inheriting of ability of risk perception. Additionally, a data base system of risk assessment about 4 jobs was developed. This system prints out about 4 forms for each job and is useful for PDCA of safety activities. (author)

  12. Evaluating the Security Risks of System Using Hidden Markov Models

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    System security assessment tools are either restricted to manual risk evaluation methodologies that are not appropriate for real-time application or used to determine the impact of certain events on the security status of networked systems. In this paper, we determine the strength of computer systems from the perspective of ...

  13. Autonomous Weapon Systems and Risk Management in Hybrid Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nørgaard, Katrine

    hand, governments and military services hope to develop game-changing technologies, that are ‘better, faster and cheaper’. In this paper, I wish to show how different and competing regimes of justification shape the technopolitical controversy and risk management of autonomous weapon systems...... of justification and risk management in contemporary conflicts....

  14. Risk-return relationship in a complex adaptive system.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kunyu Song

    Full Text Available For survival and development, autonomous agents in complex adaptive systems involving the human society must compete against or collaborate with others for sharing limited resources or wealth, by using different methods. One method is to invest, in order to obtain payoffs with risk. It is a common belief that investments with a positive risk-return relationship (namely, high risk high return and vice versa are dominant over those with a negative risk-return relationship (i.e., high risk low return and vice versa in the human society; the belief has a notable impact on daily investing activities of investors. Here we investigate the risk-return relationship in a model complex adaptive system, in order to study the effect of both market efficiency and closeness that exist in the human society and play an important role in helping to establish traditional finance/economics theories. We conduct a series of computer-aided human experiments, and also perform agent-based simulations and theoretical analysis to confirm the experimental observations and reveal the underlying mechanism. We report that investments with a negative risk-return relationship have dominance over those with a positive risk-return relationship instead in such a complex adaptive systems. We formulate the dynamical process for the system's evolution, which helps to discover the different role of identical and heterogeneous preferences. This work might be valuable not only to complexity science, but also to finance and economics, to management and social science, and to physics.

  15. Risk-return relationship in a complex adaptive system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Kunyu; An, Kenan; Yang, Guang; Huang, Jiping

    2012-01-01

    For survival and development, autonomous agents in complex adaptive systems involving the human society must compete against or collaborate with others for sharing limited resources or wealth, by using different methods. One method is to invest, in order to obtain payoffs with risk. It is a common belief that investments with a positive risk-return relationship (namely, high risk high return and vice versa) are dominant over those with a negative risk-return relationship (i.e., high risk low return and vice versa) in the human society; the belief has a notable impact on daily investing activities of investors. Here we investigate the risk-return relationship in a model complex adaptive system, in order to study the effect of both market efficiency and closeness that exist in the human society and play an important role in helping to establish traditional finance/economics theories. We conduct a series of computer-aided human experiments, and also perform agent-based simulations and theoretical analysis to confirm the experimental observations and reveal the underlying mechanism. We report that investments with a negative risk-return relationship have dominance over those with a positive risk-return relationship instead in such a complex adaptive systems. We formulate the dynamical process for the system's evolution, which helps to discover the different role of identical and heterogeneous preferences. This work might be valuable not only to complexity science, but also to finance and economics, to management and social science, and to physics.

  16. Radiation Risks and Mitigation in Electronic Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Todd, B

    2015-01-01

    Electrical and electronic systems can be disturbed by radiation-induced effects. In some cases, radiation-induced effects are of a low probability and can be ignored; however, radiation effects must be considered when designing systems that have a high mean time to failure requirement, an impact on protection, and/or higher exposure to radiat ion. High-energy physics power systems suffer from a combination of these effects: a high mean time to failure is required, failure can impact on protection, and the proximity of systems to accelerators increases the likelihood of radiation-induced events. This paper presents the principal radiation-induced effects, and radiation environments typical to high-energy physics. It outlines a procedure for designing and validating radiation-tolerant systems using commercial off-the-shelf components. The paper ends with a worked example of radiation-tolerant power converter controls that are being developed for the Large Hadron Collider and High Luminosity-Large Hadron Colli...

  17. Transient stability risk assessment of power systems incorporating wind farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Miao, Lu; Fang, Jiakun; Wen, Jinyu

    2013-01-01

    Large-scale wind farm integration has brought several aspects of challenges to the transient stability of power systems. This paper focuses on the research of the transient stability of power systems incorporating with wind farms by utilizing risk assessment methods. The detailed model of double...... fed induction generator has been established. Wind penetration variation and multiple stochastic factors of power systems have been considered. The process of transient stability risk assessment based on the Monte Carlo method has been described and a comprehensive risk indicator has been proposed....... An investigation has been conducted into an improved 10-generator 39-bus system with a wind farm incorporated to verify the validity and feasibility of the risk assessment method proposed....

  18. Application of Risk Management for Control and Monitoring Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Grau, S; Balda, F; Chouvelon, A

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents an application of the state of the art and new trends for risk management of safety-related control and monitoring systems, currently applied in the industry. These techniques not only enable to manage safety and reliability issues but they also help in the control of quality and economic factors affected by the availability and maintenance of the system. The method includes an unambiguous definition of the system in terms of functions and a systematic analysis of hazardous situations, undesired events and possible malfunctions. It also includes the identification and quantification of the risk associated to the system. The required risk reduction is specified in terms of safety integrity levels. The safety integrity level results in requirements, preventive measures, possible improvements and recommendations to assure the satisfactory management of the risk.

  19. Risk Analysis Methods for Deepwater Port Oil Transfer Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    1976-06-01

    This report deals with the risk analysis methodology for oil spills from the oil transfer systems in deepwater ports. Failure mode and effect analysis in combination with fault tree analysis are identified as the methods best suited for the assessmen...

  20. DASH - Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS): High School

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — 1991-2015. High School Dataset. The Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS) monitors six categories of priority health behaviors among youth and young...

  1. DASH - Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS): Middle School

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — 1991-2015. Middle School Dataset. The Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS) monitors six categories of priority health behaviors among youth and young...

  2. Nutrition, Physical Activity, and Obesity - Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — This dataset includes data on adolescent's diet, physical activity, and weight status from Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System (YRBSS). This data is used for...

  3. Risk management of non-renewable energy systems

    CERN Document Server

    Verma, Ajit Kumar; Muruva, Hari Prasad

    2015-01-01

    This book describes the basic concepts of risk and reliability with detailed descriptions of the different levels of probabilistic safety assessment of nuclear power plants (both internal and external). The book also maximizes readers insights into time dependent risk analysis through several case studies, whilst risk management with respect to non renewable energy sources is also explained. With several advanced reactors utilizing the concept of passive systems, the reliability estimation of these systems are explained in detail with the book providing a reliability estimation of components through mechanistic model approach. This book is useful for advanced undergraduate and post graduate students in nuclear engineering, aerospace engineering, industrial engineering, reliability and safety engineering, systems engineering and applied probability and statistics. This book is also suitable for one-semester graduate courses on risk management of non renewable energy systems in all conventional engineering bran...

  4. Nutrition, Physical Activity, and Obesity - Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — This dataset includes data on adult's diet, physical activity, and weight status from Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. This data is used for DNPAO's Data,...

  5. Reducing windshear risk through airborne systems technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowles, Roland L.

    1990-01-01

    A preliminary set of performance criteria for predictive windshear detection and warning systems is defined. Candidate airborne remote sensor technologies based on microwave Doppler radar, Doppler lidar, and IR radiometric techniques are examined from the viewpoint of overall system requirements, and the performance of each sensor is evaluated for representative microburst environments and ground clutter conditions. Preliminary simulation results indicate that all three sensors have potential for detecting windshear, and provide adequate warning time to permit flight crews to avoid the affected area or escape from the encounter.

  6. The Oxygen Paradox, the French Paradox, and age-related diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Joanna M S; Cillard, Josiane; Friguet, Bertrand; Cadenas, Enrique; Cadet, Jean; Cayce, Rachael; Fishmann, Andrew; Liao, David; Bulteau, Anne-Laure; Derbré, Frédéric; Rébillard, Amélie; Burstein, Steven; Hirsch, Etienne; Kloner, Robert A; Jakowec, Michael; Petzinger, Giselle; Sauce, Delphine; Sennlaub, Florian; Limon, Isabelle; Ursini, Fulvio; Maiorino, Matilde; Economides, Christina; Pike, Christian J; Cohen, Pinchas; Salvayre, Anne Negre; Halliday, Matthew R; Lundquist, Adam J; Jakowec, Nicolaus A; Mechta-Grigoriou, Fatima; Mericskay, Mathias; Mariani, Jean; Li, Zhenlin; Huang, David; Grant, Ellsworth; Forman, Henry J; Finch, Caleb E; Sun, Patrick Y; Pomatto, Laura C D; Agbulut, Onnik; Warburton, David; Neri, Christian; Rouis, Mustapha; Cillard, Pierre; Capeau, Jacqueline; Rosenbaum, Jean; Davies, Kelvin J A

    2017-12-01

    A paradox is a seemingly absurd or impossible concept, proposition, or theory that is often difficult to understand or explain, sometimes apparently self-contradictory, and yet ultimately correct or true. How is it possible, for example, that oxygen "a toxic environmental poison" could be also indispensable for life (Beckman and Ames Physiol Rev 78(2):547-81, 1998; Stadtman and Berlett Chem Res Toxicol 10(5):485-94, 1997)?: the so-called Oxygen Paradox (Davies and Ursini 1995; Davies Biochem Soc Symp 61:1-31, 1995). How can French people apparently disregard the rule that high dietary intakes of cholesterol and saturated fats (e.g., cheese and paté) will result in an early death from cardiovascular diseases (Renaud and de Lorgeril Lancet 339(8808):1523-6, 1992; Catalgol et al. Front Pharmacol 3:141, 2012; Eisenberg et al. Nat Med 22(12):1428-1438, 2016)?: the so-called, French Paradox. Doubtless, the truth is not a duality and epistemological bias probably generates apparently self-contradictory conclusions. Perhaps nowhere in biology are there so many apparently contradictory views, and even experimental results, affecting human physiology and pathology as in the fields of free radicals and oxidative stress, antioxidants, foods and drinks, and dietary recommendations; this is particularly true when issues such as disease-susceptibility or avoidance, "healthspan," "lifespan," and ageing are involved. Consider, for example, the apparently paradoxical observation that treatment with low doses of a substance that is toxic at high concentrations may actually induce transient adaptations that protect against a subsequent exposure to the same (or similar) toxin. This particular paradox is now mechanistically explained as "Adaptive Homeostasis" (Davies Mol Asp Med 49:1-7, 2016; Pomatto et al. 2017a; Lomeli et al. Clin Sci (Lond) 131(21):2573-2599, 2017; Pomatto and Davies 2017); the non-damaging process by which an apparent toxicant can activate biological signal

  7. Measuring the systemic risk in the South African banking sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregory M. Foggitt

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: In the aftermath of the sub-prime crisis, systemic risk has become a greater priority for regulators, with the National Treasury (2011 stating that regulators should proactively monitor changes in systemic risk. Aim: The aim is to quantify systemic risk as the capital shortfall an institution is likely to experience, conditional to the entire financial sector being undercapitalised. Setting: We measure the systemic risk index (SRISK of the South African (SA banking sector between 2001 and 2013. Methods: Systemic risk is measured with the SRISK. Results: Although the results indicated only moderate systemic risk in the SA financial sector over this period, there were significant spikes in the levels of systemic risk during periods of financial turmoil in other countries. Especially the stock market crash in 2002 and the subprime crisis in 2008. Based on our results, the largest contributor to systemic risk during quiet periods was Investec, the bank in our sample which had the lowest market capitalisation. However, during periods of financial turmoil, the contributions of other larger banks increased markedly. Conclusion: The implication of these spikes is that systemic risk levels may also be highly dependent on external economic factors, in addition to internal banking characteristics. The results indicate that the economic fundamentals of SA itself seem to have little effect on the amount of systemic risk present in the financial sector. A more significant relationship seems to exist with the stability of the financial sectors in foreign countries. The implication therefore is that complying with individual banking regulations, such as Basel, and corporate governance regulations promoting ethical behaviour, such as King III, may not be adequate. It is therefore proposed that banks should always have sufficient capital reserves in order to mitigate the effects of a financial crisis in a foreign country. The use of worst

  8. Price Paradox and Strategic Choice of "Vegetable Basket" in China

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Wu

    2011-01-01

    By using the analysis method of game theory, this paper analyzes the phenomenon of price paradox of vegetable basket in China and its reason as follows: me price paradox of vegetable basket in China is that if the vegetable is cheap, it will harm farmers, and if the vegetable is expensive, it will harm people; high-cost logistics, low negotiation status of vegetable growers and cooperation predicament are responsible for price paradox. Based on the theoretical basis of strategic choice-theory...

  9. THE ROLE OF STYLISTIC MEANS IN CREATING PARADOX

    OpenAIRE

    Marina Vladimirovna Lekova

    2017-01-01

    Purpose. Despite the existence of massive scientific literature devoted to paradox this phenomenon does not seem to have received sufficient linguistic coverage. The purpose of the article is to describe stylistic mechanisms underlying paradoxical statements. The investigation was carried out on the material collected from the fairy tales by O. Wilde, the distinguished master of paradoxes. Methodology. The investigation is based on the methods of stylistic identification, classification a...

  10. The Surprise Examination Paradox and the Second Incompleteness Theorem

    OpenAIRE

    Kritchman, Shira; Raz, Ran

    2010-01-01

    We give a new proof for Godel's second incompleteness theorem, based on Kolmogorov complexity, Chaitin's incompleteness theorem, and an argument that resembles the surprise examination paradox. We then go the other way around and suggest that the second incompleteness theorem gives a possible resolution of the surprise examination paradox. Roughly speaking, we argue that the flaw in the derivation of the paradox is that it contains a hidden assumption that one can prove the consistency of the...

  11. Systemic risk with endogenous loss given default

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    IJtsma, Pieter; Spierdijk, Laura

    2017-01-01

    When many financial institutions fail simultaneously, the remaining institutions in the system are unlikely to have sufficient liquidity to acquire all failed institutions. As a result, some assets will have to be liquidated and sold to outsiders at firesale prices, giving rise to a potentially high

  12. Mathematical Aspects of Electoral Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konstantinov, M. M.

    2007-10-01

    In this paper we consider some mathematical aspects of electoral systems. Sometimes the results from elections seem paradoxical although they are mathematically correct. These cases are known as electoral paradoxes. A number of paradoxes of proportional and majoritarian electoral systems are considered.

  13. Market-based Risk Allocation for Multi-agent Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Ono, Masahiro; Williams, Brian Charles

    2010-01-01

    This paper proposes Market-based Iterative Risk Allocation (MIRA), a new market-based distributed planning algorithm for multi-agent systems under uncertainty. In large coordination problems, from power grid management to multi-vehicle missions, multiple agents act collectively in order to optimize the performance of the system, while satisfying mission constraints. These optimal plans are particularly susceptible to risk when uncertainty is introduced. We present a di...

  14. Study of Systemic Risk Involved in Mutual Funds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dash, Kishore C.; Dash, Monika

    Systemic risk, may be defined as the risk that contaminates to the whole system, consisting of many interacting agents that fail one after another. These agents, in an economic context, could be firms, banks, funds, or other financial institutions. Systemic risk is a macroscopic property of a system which emerges due to the nonlinear interaction of agents on a microscopic level. A stock market itself is a system in which there are many sub-systems, like Dowjones, Nifty, Sensex, Nasdaq, Nikkei and other market indices in global perspective. In Indian market, subsystems may be like Sensex, Nifty, BSE200, Bankex, smallcap index, midcap index, S&P CNX 500 and many others. Similarly there are many mutual funds, which have their own portfolio of different stocks, bonds etc. We have attempted to study the systemic risk involved in a fund as a macroscopic object with regard to its microscopic components as different stocks in its portfolio. It is observed that fund managers do manage to reduce the systemic risk just like we take precautions to control the spread of an epidemic.

  15. Risk Interfaces to Support Integrated Systems Analysis and Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mindock, Jennifer; Lumpkins, Sarah; Shelhamer, Mark; Anton, Wilma; Havenhill, Maria

    2016-01-01

    Objectives for systems analysis capability: Develop integrated understanding of how a complex human physiological-socio-technical mission system behaves in spaceflight. Why? Support development of integrated solutions that prevent unwanted outcomes (Implementable approaches to minimize mission resources(mass, power, crew time, etc.)); Support development of tools for autonomy (need for exploration) (Assess and maintain resilience -individuals, teams, integrated system). Output of this exercise: -Representation of interfaces based on Human System Risk Board (HSRB) Risk Summary information and simple status based on Human Research Roadmap; Consolidated HSRB information applied to support communication; Point-of-Departure for HRP Element planning; Ability to track and communicate status of collaborations. 4

  16. Bayesian paradox in homeland security and homeland defense

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jannson, Tomasz; Forrester, Thomas; Wang, Wenjian

    2011-06-01

    In this paper we discuss a rather surprising result of Bayesian inference analysis: performance of a broad variety of sensors depends not only on a sensor system itself, but also on CONOPS parameters in such a way that even an excellent sensor system can perform poorly if absolute probabilities of a threat (target) are lower than a false alarm probability. This result, which we call Bayesian paradox, holds not only for binary sensors as discussed in the lead author's previous papers, but also for a more general class of multi-target sensors, discussed also in this paper. Examples include: ATR (automatic target recognition), luggage X-ray inspection for explosives, medical diagnostics, car engine diagnostics, judicial decisions, and many other issues.

  17. Paradoxical Sleep Deprivation Causes Cardiac Dysfunction and the Impairment Is Attenuated by Resistance Training.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Quaglia de Campos Giampá

    Full Text Available Paradoxical sleep deprivation activates the sympathetic nervous system and the hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal axis, subsequently interfering with the cardiovascular system. The beneficial effects of resistance training are related to hemodynamic, metabolic and hormonal homeostasis. We hypothesized that resistance training can prevent the cardiac remodeling and dysfunction caused by paradoxical sleep deprivation.Male Wistar rats were distributed into four groups: control (C, resistance training (RT, paradoxical sleep deprivation for 96 hours (PSD96 and both resistance training and sleep deprivation (RT/PSD96. Doppler echocardiograms, hemodynamics measurements, cardiac histomorphometry, hormonal profile and molecular analysis were evaluated.Compared to the C group, PSD96 group had a higher left ventricular systolic pressure, heart rate and left atrium index. In contrast, the left ventricle systolic area and the left ventricle cavity diameter were reduced in the PSD96 group. Hypertrophy and fibrosis were also observed. Along with these alterations, reduced levels of serum testosterone and insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1, as well as increased corticosterone and angiotensin II, were observed in the PSD96 group. Prophylactic resistance training attenuated most of these changes, except angiotensin II, fibrosis, heart rate and concentric remodeling of left ventricle, confirmed by the increased of NFATc3 and GATA-4, proteins involved in the pathologic cardiac hypertrophy pathway.Resistance training effectively attenuates cardiac dysfunction and hormonal imbalance induced by paradoxical sleep deprivation.

  18. The Nature and Assessment of Systemic Risk in Terms of Liquidity of the Banking System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lavreniuk Vladyslav V.

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article is to determine the nature of systemic risk as a threat to the financial stability of the banking system and develop analytical tools to assess its impact on the banking system in terms of its liquidity. To solve the tasks assigned, there used general scientific and specific methods, such as: logical and dialectical method, mathematical and graphical one. Based on the generalization, analysis and comparison of different interpretations, there clarified the concept of «systemic risk» as a risk generated by financial institutions or individual sectors through the implementation of the mechanism of risk transmission, achieving significant scale of distribution and adversely affecting the stability of the financial system and the real sector of economy. There identified key aspects of systemic risk: a systemic risk is not a sum of all individual risks of financial institutions; b spreads through the channels of interconnectedness between financial institutions; c is a result of accumulated structural imbalances; d affects the stability of the financial/banking system, public confidence and the real sector of economy. Analytical tools for estimation of the bank’s contribution to the systemic liquidity risk on the basis of which it is determined that the first place in terms of the effect on the aggregate systemic risk of liquidity of the Ukrainian banking system is occupied by banks of Group I, the second place — by Privatbank, the third, fourth, fifth places — by banks in Group II — Oschadbank, Ukreximbank. It is found that it is systemically important state-owned banks that have a significant impact on systemic liquidity risk. It is determined that the probability of default of a leading systemically important bank could result in considerable cumulative losses for the entire banking system and real economy. The prospects of further research are the development of tools for systemic risk assessment with respect to

  19. Risk-based rules for crane safety systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruud, Stian; Mikkelsen, Age

    2008-01-01

    The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) has recommended a method called formal safety assessment (FSA) for future development of rules and regulations. The FSA method has been applied in a pilot research project for development of risk-based rules and functional requirements for systems and components for offshore crane systems. This paper reports some developments in the project. A method for estimating target reliability for the risk-control options (safety functions) by means of the cost/benefit decision criterion has been developed in the project and is presented in this paper. Finally, a structure for risk-based rules is proposed and presented

  20. CRRIS: a computerized radiological risk-investigation system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baes, C.F. III; Miller, C.W.

    1981-01-01

    The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is responsible for regulating radioactive airborne effluents in the US. A comprehensive, integrated Computerized Radiological Risk Investigation System (CRRIS) is being developed to support EPA's radiation standards development. This modular system consists primarily of five computer codes and their supporting data bases for estimating environmental transport and radiation doses and risks. Health effects are estimated on the basis of a life-table methodology developed by EPA. CRRIS is designed to provide EPA with a reasonable and flexible way of assessing the risk to man associated with radionuclide releases to the atmosphere

  1. Human System Risk Management - Tools of our Trade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ott, C. Mark

    2009-01-01

    The risk of infectious disease to select individuals has historically been difficult to predict in either spaceflight or on Earth with health care efforts relying on broad-based prevention and post-infection treatment. Over the past 10 years, quantitative microbial risk assessment evaluations have evolved to formalize the assessment process and quantify the risk. This process of hazard identification, exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization has been applied by the water and food safety industries to address the public health impacts associated with the occurrence of and human exposure to pathogens in water and food for the development of preventive strategies for microbial disease. NASA is currently investigating the feasibility of using these techniques to better understand the risks to astronauts and refine their microbiological requirements. To assess these techniques, NASA began an evaluation of the potable water system on the International Space Station to determine how the microbial risk from water consumption during flight differed from terrestrial sources, such as municipal water systems. The ultimate goal of this work is to optimize microbial requirements which would minimize unnecessary cargo and use of crew time, while still protecting the health of the crew. Successful demonstration of this risk assessment framework with the water system holds the potential to maximize the use of available resources during spaceflight missions and facilitate investigations into the evaluation of other routes of infection, such as through the spaceflight foods system.

  2. Associations between diabetic retinopathy and systemic risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wat, N; Wong, R Lm; Wong, I Yh

    2016-12-01

    Diabetes mellitus is a systemic disease with complications that include sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy. It is essential to understand the risk factors of diabetic retinopathy before effective prevention can be implemented. The aim of this review was to examine the association between diabetic retinopathy and systemic risk factors. A PubMed literature search was performed up to May 2016 to identify articles reporting associations between diabetic retinopathy and systemic risk factors; only publications written in English were included. Relevant articles were selected and analysed. Patients with diabetic retinopathy were more likely to have poor glycaemic control as reflected by a higher glycated haemoglobin, longer duration of diabetes, and use of insulin therapy for treatment. For other systemic risk factors, hypertension was positively associated with prevalence and progression of diabetic retinopathy. No clear association between obesity, hyperlipidaemia, gender, or smoking with diabetic retinopathy has been established as studies reported inconsistent findings. Myopia was a protective factor for the development of diabetic retinopathy. Several genetic polymorphisms were also found to be associated with an increased risk of development of diabetic retinopathy. Good glycaemic and blood pressure control remain the most important modifiable risk factors to reduce the risk of progression of diabetic retinopathy and vision loss.

  3. The LGB Mormon Paradox: Mental, Physical, and Self-Rated Health Among Mormon and Non-Mormon LGB Individuals in the Utah Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cranney, Stephen

    2017-01-01

    Much of the literature on mental and physical health among religious LGB individuals has relied on small-N convenience samples. This study takes advantage of a unique, large-N, population-based dataset to test the relationship between religious identity, religious activity, and health, with a specific emphasis on Utah Mormons. In a surprising finding, Mormon LGBs report better mental health than non-Mormon LGBs, while their self-rated and physical health is not significantly different. However, there is some evidence that Mormon LGBs derive fewer health benefits from church attendance than their non-LGB Mormon counterparts. These results may nuance the conventional wisdom regarding the health dynamics of LGB individuals who identify with a conservative, heteronormative religious tradition, and plausible explanations are discussed.

  4. Dynamic Modeling of Systemic Risk in Financial Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avakian, Adam

    Modern financial networks are complicated structures that can contain multiple types of nodes and connections between those nodes. Banks, governments and even individual people weave into an intricate network of debt, risk correlations and many other forms of interconnectedness. We explore multiple types of financial network models with a focus on understanding the dynamics and causes of cascading failures in such systems. In particular, we apply real-world data from multiple sources to these models to better understand real-world financial networks. We use the results of the Federal Reserve "Banking Organization Systemic Risk Report" (FR Y-15), which surveys the largest US banks on their level of interconnectedness, to find relationships between various measures of network connectivity and systemic risk in the US financial sector. This network model is then stress-tested under a number of scenarios to determine systemic risks inherent in the various network structures. We also use detailed historical balance sheet data from the Venezuelan banking system to build a bipartite network model and find relationships between the changing network structure over time and the response of the system to various shocks. We find that the relationship between interconnectedness and systemic risk is highly dependent on the system and model but that it is always a significant one. These models are useful tools that add value to regulators in creating new measurements of systemic risk in financial networks. These models could be used as macroprudential tools for monitoring the health of the entire banking system as a whole rather than only of individual banks.

  5. The Assessment of Systemic Risk in the Kenyan Banking Sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Fan

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The present paper aims to assess the systemic risk of the Kenyan banking system. We propose a theoretical framework to reveal the time evolution of the systemic risk using sequences of financial data and use the framework to assess the systemic risk of the Kenyan banking system that is regarded as the largest in the East and Central African region. Firstly, we estimate the bilateral exposures matrix using aggregate financial data on loans and deposits from annual reports and analyze the interconnectedness in the market using network centrality measures. Next, we extend the Eisenberg–Noe method to a multiperiod setting to the systemic risk of the Kenyan banking system, in which the multiperiod includes the dynamic evolutions of the Kenyan banking system of every bank and the structure of the interbank network system. We apply this framework to assess dynamically the systemic risk of the Kenyan banking system between 2009 and 2015. The main findings are the following. The theoretical network analysis using network centrality measures showed several banks displaying characteristics of systematically important banks (SIBs. The theoretical default analysis showed that a bank suffering a basic default will trigger a contagious default that caused several other banks in the sector to go bankrupt. Further stress test proved that the KCB bank theoretically caused a few contagious defaults due to an unusually high interconnectedness. This methodology can contribute by being part of monitoring system of the Central Bank of Kenya (regulatory body as well as the implementation of policies (such as bank-internal stress tests that assist in preventing default contagion.

  6. System risk evolution analysis and risk critical event identification based on event sequence diagram

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luo, Pengcheng; Hu, Yang

    2013-01-01

    During system operation, the environmental, operational and usage conditions are time-varying, which causes the fluctuations of the system state variables (SSVs). These fluctuations change the accidents’ probabilities and then result in the system risk evolution (SRE). This inherent relation makes it feasible to realize risk control by monitoring the SSVs in real time, herein, the quantitative analysis of SRE is essential. Besides, some events in the process of SRE are critical to system risk, because they act like the “demarcative points” of safety and accident, and this characteristic makes each of them a key point of risk control. Therefore, analysis of SRE and identification of risk critical events (RCEs) are remarkably meaningful to ensure the system to operate safely. In this context, an event sequence diagram (ESD) based method of SRE analysis and the related Monte Carlo solution are presented; RCE and risk sensitive variable (RSV) are defined, and the corresponding identification methods are also proposed. Finally, the proposed approaches are exemplified with an accident scenario of an aircraft getting into the icing region

  7. Paradoks kłamcy (Liar Paradox

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Wawrzyniak

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article is to determine what role the liar sentence plays in our language. On the one hand, it seems to be well formed formula, and on the other, it does not seem to have any clear sense. At the beginning of the article I point what form an adequate solution of the liar paradox should take. In my opinion it could not consist in giving rules which do not allow to build such a sentence. The paradox remains unsolved until there is such a language in which it could be expressed.In the first part of the text I try to explain why Tarski’s solution is not satisfactory. If the semantical definition of truth is correct, the liar sentence could not lead to a contradiction because formulas which are not well formed could not be premisesof any inference. From that follows that the so called liar paradox does not arise and that leads to the conclusion: ‘the reconstruction’ of the liar propounded by Tarski could not be correct.In the second part I present an approach to the liar which appeals to Frege’s and Wittgenstein’s conceptions of language. The conclusion of my consideration is that the liar sentence is nonsense, which means it is not given any sense – either its logical form is determined but we do not fix any definite meaning to some parts of it, or an attempt to determine its logical form in the standard way leads to regressad infinitum.

  8. The paradox of strategic environmental assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bidstrup, Morten; Hansen, Anne Merrild

    2014-01-01

    Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) is a tool that can facilitate sustainable development and improve decision-making by introducing environmental concern early in planning processes. However, various international studies conclude that current planning practice is not taking full advantage of the tool, and we therefore define the paradox of SEA as the methodological ambiguity of non-strategic SEA. This article explores causality through at three-step case study on aggregates extraction planning in Denmark, which consists of a document analysis; a questionnaire survey and follow-up communication with key planners. Though the environmental reports on one hand largely lack strategic considerations, practitioners express an inherent will for strategy and reveal that their SEAs in fact have been an integrated part of the planning process. Institutional context is found to be the most significant barrier for a strategy and this suggests that non-strategic planning setups can prove more important than non-strategic planning in SEA practice. Planners may try to execute strategy within the confinements of SEA-restricted planning contexts; however, such efforts can be overlooked if evaluated by a narrow criterion for strategy formation. Consequently, the paradox may also spark from challenged documentation. These findings contribute to the common understanding of SEA quality; however, further research is needed on how to communicate and influence the strategic options which arguably remain inside non-strategic planning realities. - Highlights: • International studies conclude that SEAs are not strategic. = The paradox of SEA. • Even on the highest managerial level, some contexts do not leave room for strategy. • Non-strategic SEA can derive from challenged documentation. • Descriptive and emergent strategy formation can, in practice, be deemed non-strategic

  9. Systemic risk in dynamical networks with stochastic failure criterion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Podobnik, B.; Horvatic, D.; Bertella, M. A.; Feng, L.; Huang, X.; Li, B.

    2014-06-01

    Complex non-linear interactions between banks and assets we model by two time-dependent Erdős-Renyi network models where each node, representing a bank, can invest either to a single asset (model I) or multiple assets (model II). We use a dynamical network approach to evaluate the collective financial failure —systemic risk— quantified by the fraction of active nodes. The systemic risk can be calculated over any future time period, divided into sub-periods, where within each sub-period banks may contiguously fail due to links to either i) assets or ii) other banks, controlled by two parameters, probability of internal failure p and threshold Th (“solvency” parameter). The systemic risk decreases with the average network degree faster when all assets are equally distributed across banks than if assets are randomly distributed. The more inactive banks each bank can sustain (smaller Th), the smaller the systemic risk —for some Th values in I we report a discontinuity in systemic risk. When contiguous spreading becomes stochastic ii) controlled by probability p2 —a condition for the bank to be solvent (active) is stochastic— the systemic risk decreases with decreasing p2. We analyse the asset allocation for the U.S. banks.

  10. Risk analysis of radioactive waste management systems in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wingender, H.J.

    1978-01-01

    Within the scope of a system study, ''Radioactive wastes in the Federal Republic of Germany,'' performed from 1974 through 1976, the questions of risk assessment were investigated. A risk analysis of a high-level waste (HLW) management system was performed. The results of the HLW tank storage are that the risk expectation value is 700 nJ/kg x RBE (7 x 10 -5 rem) per year for atmospheric release. The discussion of the main contributing accidents shows the possibility of reducing the risk by a technical means. A qualitative comparison on the release basis with the results of the WASH-1400 report shows significant differences that can be explained by the different methodologies applied. The risk analysis activities have led to a comprehensive risk assessment project, which was recently started. The projected includes research and development tasks concerning nuclide migration and transport to the ecosphere, nuclide mobilization by various mechanisms, methodology problems, data collection, computer code development, as well as risk analyses of waste management facilities. It is intended to round off the project with risk analyses of spent fuel element transport, storage, and reprocessing

  11. MODELING PARADOXES IN NOVICE AND EXPERT DESIGN

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dorst, Kees; Hansen, Claus Thorp

    2011-01-01

    In their ICED09 paper ‘Problem formulation as a discursive activity’, the authors have used an extensive educational case study to explore a framework for describing design as a discursive activity, centered around the paradoxical nature of the problem situation. The ‘working definition’ for para...... at play in a design situation, and extract themes that can lead to reformulation of the problem as well as the creation of innovative solutions. This behaviour is compared to the ways of working of novice designers (students) in the original case study....

  12. Managing the paradoxes of discussion pedagogy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jody S. Piro

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Discussion pedagogy is part of a larger curricular goal that intersects the two aspirations of diversity of perspectives and democratic inquiry in that it challenges stereotypes and assumptions through student discourse. Yet, teaching with discussion is a complex and sometimes ambiguous endeavor that leaves instructors feeling pulled between desirable, but seemingly contradictory, goals. This article discusses these paradoxes of instructional choices and student outcomes that instructors may negotiate through polarity management, a theoretical framework that focuses on values that are diametrically opposed, yet interdependent upon each other. Implications of polarity management for discussion pedagogy are highlighted.

  13. O paradoxo de Chalmers Chalmers' paradox

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gustavo Leal-Toledo

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available O Argumento dos Zumbis proposto por Chalmers, ao contrário de defender o dualismo, bane as qualia para um "mundo" onde elas não podem influenciar o julgamento que fazemos sobre nós mesmos. Por este motivo, pelo próprio argumento, podemos ser um zumbi e não saber. A isso Chalmers chamou de The Paradox of Phenomenal Judgment. O problema é que ele aceita tal paradoxo como parte de sua própria teoria. No entanto, este movimento filosófico não é aceitável e este paradoxo mina a teoria de Chalmers por dentro mostrando que o argumento dos zumbis é, na verdade, um argumento contra o dualismo. Chalmers tenta resolver este problema com uma série de argumentos que tem como base o fato de que a consciência é um bruto explanandum indubitável. No entanto, tal tentativa fracassa por uma série de razões que mostram que mesmo se ele estivesse correto, ainda poderíamos ser um zumbi e não saber.The Zombie Argument proposed by Chalmers, instead of working as a defense of dualism, banishes qualia to a 'world' where they cannot influence our judgments about ourselves. For this reason, according to the argument itself, we may be all zombies and not know it. This is what Chalmers called The Paradox of Phenomenal Judgment. The problem is that he accepts this paradox as part of his theory. This philosophical move, however, is not acceptable, for the paradox undermines Chalmers' theory, by showing that the zombie argument is, actually, an argument against dualism. Chalmers tries to solve this problem with many arguments based on the status of consciousness as brute indubitable explanandum. However, this attempt is a failure by a series of reasons showing that, even if he were right, we could still be zombies and not know it.

  14. Paradox of integration-A computational model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krawczyk, Małgorzata J.; Kułakowski, Krzysztof

    2017-02-01

    The paradoxical aspect of integration of a social group has been highlighted by Blau (1964). During the integration process, the group members simultaneously compete for social status and play the role of the audience. Here we show that when the competition prevails over the desire of approval, a sharp transition breaks all friendly relations. However, as was described by Blau, people with high status are inclined to bother more with acceptance of others; this is achieved by praising others and revealing her/his own weak points. In our model, this action smooths the transition and improves interpersonal relations.

  15. A surety engineering framework to reduce cognitive systems risks.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caudell, Thomas P. (University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM); Peercy, David Eugene; Caldera, Eva O. (University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM); Shaneyfelt, Wendy L.

    2008-12-01

    Cognitive science research investigates the advancement of human cognition and neuroscience capabilities. Addressing risks associated with these advancements can counter potential program failures, legal and ethical issues, constraints to scientific research, and product vulnerabilities. Survey results, focus group discussions, cognitive science experts, and surety researchers concur technical risks exist that could impact cognitive science research in areas such as medicine, privacy, human enhancement, law and policy, military applications, and national security (SAND2006-6895). This SAND report documents a surety engineering framework and a process for identifying cognitive system technical, ethical, legal and societal risks and applying appropriate surety methods to reduce such risks. The framework consists of several models: Specification, Design, Evaluation, Risk, and Maturity. Two detailed case studies are included to illustrate the use of the process and framework. Several Appendices provide detailed information on existing cognitive system architectures; ethical, legal, and societal risk research; surety methods and technologies; and educing information research with a case study vignette. The process and framework provide a model for how cognitive systems research and full-scale product development can apply surety engineering to reduce perceived and actual risks.

  16. Operational Risk Management System for SMS and FRMS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stewart, S.; Koornneef, F.; Akselsson, R.

    2009-01-01

    Chapter 3: Operational Risk Management System for SMS and FRMS The European Commission HILAS project (Human Integration into the Lifecycle of Aviation Systems - a project supported by the European Commission’s 6th Framework between 2005-2009) was focused on using human factors knowledge and

  17. An Interoperable System toward Cardiac Risk Stratification from ECG Monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mora-Jiménez, Inmaculada; Ramos-López, Javier; Quintanilla Fernández, Teresa; García-García, Antonio; Díez-Mazuela, Daniel; García-Alberola, Arcadi

    2018-01-01

    Many indices have been proposed for cardiovascular risk stratification from electrocardiogram signal processing, still with limited use in clinical practice. We created a system integrating the clinical definition of cardiac risk subdomains from ECGs and the use of diverse signal processing techniques. Three subdomains were defined from the joint analysis of the technical and clinical viewpoints. One subdomain was devoted to demographic and clinical data. The other two subdomains were intended to obtain widely defined risk indices from ECG monitoring: a simple-domain (heart rate turbulence (HRT)), and a complex-domain (heart rate variability (HRV)). Data provided by the three subdomains allowed for the generation of alerts with different intensity and nature, as well as for the grouping and scrutinization of patients according to the established processing and risk-thresholding criteria. The implemented system was tested by connecting data from real-world in-hospital electronic health records and ECG monitoring by considering standards for syntactic (HL7 messages) and semantic interoperability (archetypes based on CEN/ISO EN13606 and SNOMED-CT). The system was able to provide risk indices and to generate alerts in the health records to support decision-making. Overall, the system allows for the agile interaction of research and clinical practice in the Holter-ECG-based cardiac risk domain. PMID:29494497

  18. An Interoperable System toward Cardiac Risk Stratification from ECG Monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Soguero-Ruiz

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Many indices have been proposed for cardiovascular risk stratification from electrocardiogram signal processing, still with limited use in clinical practice. We created a system integrating the clinical definition of cardiac risk subdomains from ECGs and the use of diverse signal processing techniques. Three subdomains were defined from the joint analysis of the technical and clinical viewpoints. One subdomain was devoted to demographic and clinical data. The other two subdomains were intended to obtain widely defined risk indices from ECG monitoring: a simple-domain (heart rate turbulence (HRT, and a complex-domain (heart rate variability (HRV. Data provided by the three subdomains allowed for the generation of alerts with different intensity and nature, as well as for the grouping and scrutinization of patients according to the established processing and risk-thresholding criteria. The implemented system was tested by connecting data from real-world in-hospital electronic health records and ECG monitoring by considering standards for syntactic (HL7 messages and semantic interoperability (archetypes based on CEN/ISO EN13606 and SNOMED-CT. The system was able to provide risk indices and to generate alerts in the health records to support decision-making. Overall, the system allows for the agile interaction of research and clinical practice in the Holter-ECG-based cardiac risk domain.

  19. Retinal vein occlusion: genetic predisposition and systemic risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giannaki, Kassiani; Politou, Marianna; Rouvas, Alexandros; Merkouri, Efrossyni; Travlou, Anthi; Theodosiadis, Panayiotis; Gialeraki, Argyri

    2013-04-01

    The role of systemic risk factors (age, smoking, diabetes, arterial hypertension) in the development of retinal vein occlusion (RVO) is well established. However, the association of RVO with genetic predisposition to thrombosis remains poorly understood. The aim of the study was to assess any possible additional effect of genetic predisposition to the already well known 'classical' risk factors of RVO in a cohort of elderly Greek patients. Fifty-one elderly patients with RVO and 51 healthy individuals matched for age and sex were evaluated for systemic risk factors (smoking, diabetes, dyslipidemia, arterial hypertension) and coagulation defects (lupus anticoagulant, natural inhibitors of coagulation). Additionally, genotyping was performed for mutations/polymorphisms involved in haemostasis such as: FV G1691A, FV G4070A, FIIG 20210A, MTHFR C677T and A1298C, PAI-1-675 4G/5G, F XIII exon 2G/T, EPCR A4600G and G4678C. We identified systemic risk factors in the majority of the patients Hypertension (P=0.001), dyslipidemia (P=0.029) and diabetes (P=0.01) are associated with RVO in the majority of the patients. The prevalence of prothrombotic risk factors was not significantly different in the patients with RVO compared to controls. Apart from systemic risk factors, genetic predisposition to thrombosis does not seem to have an important association with RVO in this group of elderly patients.

  20. Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Vesely, W.E.; Kim, I.S.; Lofgren, E.V.

    1989-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of risks associated with component outage configurations during power operation of a nuclear power plant and discusses approaches and strategies for developing a risk-based configuration control system. A configuration, as used here, is a set of component states. The objective of risk-based configuration control is to detect and control plant configurations using a risk-perspective. The configuration contributions to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability are studied for two plants. Large core-melt frequency can be caused by configurations and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the actual core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. Effective strategies and criteria for controlling configuration risks are presented. Such control strategies take into consideration the risks associated with configurations, the nature and characteristics of the configuration risks, and also the practical considerations such as adequate repair times and/or options to transfer to low risk configurations. Alternative types of criteria are discussed that are not overly restrictive to result in unnecessary plant shutdown, but rather motivates effective tests and maintenance practices that control; risk-significant configurations to allow continued operation with an adequate margin to meet challenges to safety. 3 refs., 7 figs., 2 tabs

  1. Risk-based configuration control system: Analysis and approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Kim, I.S.; Lofgren, E.V.; Vesely, W.E.

    1990-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of risks associated with component outage configurations during power operation of a nuclear power plant and discusses approaches and strategies for developing a risk-based configuration control system. A configuration, as used here, is a set of component states. The objective of risk-based configuration control is to detect and control plant configurations using a risk-perspective. The configuration contributions to core-melt frequency and core-melt probability are studied for two plants. Large core-melt frequency can be caused by configurations and there are a number of such configurations that are not currently controlled by technical specifications. However, the expected frequency of occurrence of the impacting configurations is small and the actual core-melt probability contributions are also generally small. Effective strategies and criteria for controlling configuration risks are presented. Such control strategies take into consideration the risks associated with configurations, the nature and characteristics of the configuration risks, and also the practical considerations such as adequate repair times and/or options to transfer to low risk configurations. Alternative types of criteria are discussed that are not overly restrictive to result in unnecessary plant shutdown, but rather motivates effective test and maintenance practices that control risk-significant configurations to allow continued operation with an adequate margin to meet challenges to safety

  2. Is Yin-Yang Superior for Paradox Research?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Xin; Worm, Verner; Peihong, Xie

    2017-01-01

    Purpose The paper debunks Peter P. Li’s assertion that Yin-Yang is superior to any other cognitive frames or logical systems for paradox research. The purpose of this paper is to alert the Chinese indigenous management researchers to the danger of Chinese exceptionalism and over-confidence. Design....../methodology/approach To show that Peter P. Li’s assertion is doubtful, the authors identify the flaws in his analysis. Findings The authors find that there are three serious flaws in Peter P. Li’s analysis. First, there are four defects in the typology of cognitive frames he built in order to compare Yin-Yang with the others....... Second, his understanding of dialectics in general and Hegelian dialectics in particular is flawed. And finally, without resorting to Yin-Yang, many scholars can develop theories that are equivalent to those derived from Yin-Yang. Research limitations/implications Due to the page limit, this paper only...

  3. Mercury Toxicity on Sodium Pump and Organoseleniums Intervention: A Paradox

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ige Joseph Kade

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Mercury is an environmental poison, and the damage to living system is generally severe. The severity of mercury poisoning is consequent from the fact that it targets the thiol-containing enzymes, irreversibly oxidizing their critical thiol groups, consequently leading to an inactivation of the enzyme. The Na+/K+-ATPase is a sulfhydryl protein that is sensitive to Hg2+ assault. On the other hand, organoseleniums are a class of pharmacologically promising compounds with potent antioxidant effects. While Hg2+ oxidizes sulfhydryl groups of Na+/K+-ATPase under in vitro and in vivo conditions, the organoselenium compounds inhibit Na+/K+-ATPase in vitro but enhance its activities under in vivo conditions with concomitant increase in the level of endogenous thiols. Paradoxically, it appears that these two thiol oxidants can be used to counteract one another under in vivo conditions, and this hypothesis serves as the basis for this paper.

  4. Space radiation risks to the central nervous system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucinotta, Francis A.; Alp, Murat; Sulzman, Frank M.; Wang, Minli

    2014-07-01

    Central nervous system (CNS) risks which include during space missions and lifetime risks due to space radiation exposure are of concern for long-term exploration missions to Mars or other destinations. Possible CNS risks during a mission are altered cognitive function, including detriments in short-term memory, reduced motor function, and behavioral changes, which may affect performance and human health. The late CNS risks are possible neurological disorders such as premature aging, and Alzheimer's disease (AD) or other dementia. Radiation safety requirements are intended to prevent all clinically significant acute risks. However the definition of clinically significant CNS risks and their dependences on dose, dose-rate and radiation quality is poorly understood at this time. For late CNS effects such as increased risk of AD, the occurrence of the disease is fatal with mean time from diagnosis of early stage AD to death about 8 years. Therefore if AD risk or other late CNS risks from space radiation occur at mission relevant doses, they would naturally be included in the overall acceptable risk of exposure induced death (REID) probability for space missions. Important progress has been made in understanding CNS risks due to space radiation exposure, however in general the doses used in experimental studies have been much higher than the annual galactic cosmic ray (GCR) dose (∼0.1 Gy/y at solar maximum and ∼0.2 Gy/y at solar minimum with less than 50% from HZE particles). In this report we summarize recent space radiobiology studies of CNS effects from particle accelerators simulating space radiation using experimental models, and make a critical assessment of their relevance relative to doses and dose-rates to be incurred on a Mars mission. Prospects for understanding dose, dose-rate and radiation quality dependencies of CNS effects and extrapolation to human risk assessments are described.

  5. Systemic risk and heterogeneous leverage in banking networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuzubaş, Tolga Umut; Saltoğlu, Burak; Sever, Can

    2016-11-01

    This study probes systemic risk implications of leverage heterogeneity in banking networks. We show that the presence of heterogeneous leverages drastically changes the systemic effects of defaults and the nature of the contagion in interbank markets. Using financial leverage data from the US banking system, through simulations, we analyze the systemic significance of different types of borrowers, the evolution of the network, the consequences of interbank market size and the impact of market segmentation. Our study is related to the recent Basel III regulations on systemic risk and the treatment of the Global Systemically Important Banks (GSIBs). We also assess the extent to which the recent capital surcharges on GSIBs may curb financial fragility. We show the effectiveness of surcharge policy for the most-levered banks vis-a-vis uniform capital injection.

  6. Game Theory and Risk-Based Levee System Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hui, R.; Lund, J. R.; Madani, K.

    2014-12-01

    Risk-based analysis has been developed for optimal levee design for economic efficiency. Along many rivers, two levees on opposite riverbanks act as a simple levee system. Being rational and self-interested, land owners on each river bank would tend to independently optimize their levees with risk-based analysis, resulting in a Pareto-inefficient levee system design from the social planner's perspective. Game theory is applied in this study to analyze decision making process in a simple levee system in which the land owners on each river bank develop their design strategies using risk-based economic optimization. For each land owner, the annual expected total cost includes expected annual damage cost and annualized construction cost. The non-cooperative Nash equilibrium is identified and compared to the social planner's optimal distribution of flood risk and damage cost throughout the system which results in the minimum total flood cost for the system. The social planner's optimal solution is not feasible without appropriate level of compensation for the transferred flood risk to guarantee and improve conditions for all parties. Therefore, cooperative game theory is then employed to develop an economically optimal design that can be implemented in practice. By examining the game in the reversible and irreversible decision making modes, the cost of decision making myopia is calculated to underline the significance of considering the externalities and evolution path of dynamic water resource problems for optimal decision making.

  7. The evolution of risk and bailout strategy in banking systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Caux, Robert; McGroarty, Frank; Brede, Markus

    2017-02-01

    In this paper we analyse the long-term costs and benefits of bailout strategies in models of networked banking systems. Unlike much of the current literature on financial contagion that focuses on systemic risk at one point in time, we consider adaptive banks that adjust risk taking in response to internal system dynamics and regulatory intervention, allowing us to analyse the potentially crucial moral hazard aspect associated with frequent bailouts. We demonstrate that whereas bailout generally serves as an effective tool to limit the size of bankruptcy cascades in the short term, inappropriate intervention strategies can encourage risk-taking and thus be inefficient and detrimental to long term system stability. We analyse points of long-term optimal bailout and discuss their dependence on the structure of the banking network. In the second part of the paper, we demonstrate that bailout efficiency can be improved by taking into account information about the topology of and risk allocation on the banking network, and demonstrate that finely tuned intervention strategies aimed at bailing out banks in configurations with some degree of anti-correlated risk have superior performance. These results demonstrate that a suitable intervention policy may be a useful tool for driving the banking system towards a more robust structure.

  8. SME's Implementing a Quality Management System- Risks and Opportunities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luise ZEININGER

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Part of our daily lives, risk ceased to be just something that managers are desperate to alleviate if not eliminate. It is now rightfully considered a path to explore new opportunities. The last version of the ISO 9001, the 2015 edition, is asking from organization implementing it to determine the risk and opportunities associated with their main processes, the impact over relevant third parties and the context, both internal and external. With this duality as starting point, we have investigated among SME's implementing a quality management system what would they consider to be the risk and opportunities associated to this action. Our paper presents hereinafter the partial results of a wider study on Romanian SME's management, especially the findings related to what managers consider as risk or opportunity when implementing a quality management system.

  9. Liquidity Risk and its Management in Lithuanian Banking System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erika Bareikaitė

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Banks are the main part of financial sector in each economy and strength of banking system becomes vital for ensuringfavourable economic stability and growth. Recent failure of two commercial banks in Lithuania showed that managershaven’t evaluated liquidity risk or haven’t dealt with it properly. The tasks of the paper are to investigate Lithuanian banksposition towards liquidity risk, analyse what kind of management tools banks use for ensuring favourable position towardsliquidity and to explore the liquidity influence to profitability in Lithuanian banking sector. The article examines liquidity andits management processes in Lithuanian banking sector. Description of liquidity importance is presented. Liquidity risk and itsmeasurement as well as the ways of managing the above mentioned risk is analysed in the article. In order to analyse the relationshipbetween liquidity risk and profitability of banks, analysis of scientific literature, research synthesis and generalizationshave been made.

  10. Environmental Risk Assessment System for Phosphogypsum Tailing Dams

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin Sun

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper may be of particular interest to the readers as it provides a new environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams. In this paper, we studied the phosphogypsum tailing dams which include characteristics of the pollution source, environmental risk characteristics and evaluation requirements to identify the applicable environmental risk assessment methods. Two analytical methods, that is, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP and fuzzy logic, were used to handle the complexity of the environmental and nonquantitative data. Using our assessment method, different risk factors can be ranked according to their contributions to the environmental risk, thereby allowing the calculation of their relative priorities during decision making. Thus, environmental decision-makers can use this approach to develop alternative management strategies for proposed, ongoing, and completed PG tailing dams.

  11. Environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xin; Ning, Ping; Tang, Xiaolong; Yi, Honghong; Li, Kai; Zhou, Lianbi; Xu, Xianmang

    2013-01-01

    This paper may be of particular interest to the readers as it provides a new environmental risk assessment system for phosphogypsum tailing dams. In this paper, we studied the phosphogypsum tailing dams which include characteristics of the pollution source, environmental risk characteristics and evaluation requirements to identify the applicable environmental risk assessment methods. Two analytical methods, that is, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy logic, were used to handle the complexity of the environmental and nonquantitative data. Using our assessment method, different risk factors can be ranked according to their contributions to the environmental risk, thereby allowing the calculation of their relative priorities during decision making. Thus, environmental decision-makers can use this approach to develop alternative management strategies for proposed, ongoing, and completed PG tailing dams.

  12. Paradoxical Reaction to Alprazolam in an Elderly Woman with a History of Anxiety, Mood Disorders, and Hypothyroidism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Kirkpatrick

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available With less than 1% of patients who use benzodiazepines being affected, paradoxical responses to benzodiazepines are rare. In this case report, we outline the course of an 80-year-old female who developed a paradoxical response to benzodiazepines. Significant medical and psychiatric history includes anxiety, mood disorder, hypothyroidism, bilateral mastectomy, goiter removal, and triple bypass. The patient presented with mental status changes, anxiety, motor restlessness, and paranoia. Over time, a temporal relationship between the severity of the patient’s motor agitation and intake of alprazolam was observed. As doses of alprazolam were decreased, her motor agitation became less severe. In addition to motor agitation, the patient also demonstrated increased aggressiveness, a subjective feeling of restlessness, and increased talkativeness. As her dose of alprazolam decreased, many of the patient’s symptoms were observed to decrease. This case report also discusses theories regarding the pathophysiology of paradoxical reactions to benzodiazepines, known risk factors, and appropriate treatment.

  13. Navigating Instructional Dialectics: Empirical Exploration of Paradox in Teaching

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Blair; Rudick, C. Kyle; Kerssen-Griep, Jeff; Golsan, Kathryn

    2018-01-01

    Navigating contradiction represents an integral part of the teaching process. While educational literature has discussed the paradoxes that teachers experience in the classroom, minimal empirical research has analyzed the strategies teachers employ to address these paradoxes. Using relational dialectics as a theoretical framework for understanding…

  14. An Applet for the Investigation of Simpson's Paradox

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneiter, Kady; Symanzik, Jurgen

    2013-01-01

    This article describes an applet that facilitates investigation of Simpson's Paradox in the context of a number of real and hypothetical data sets. The applet builds on the Baker-Kramer graphical representation for Simpson's Paradox. The implementation and use of the applet are explained. This is followed by a description of how the applet has…

  15. TilE PARADOX OF PEDAGOGY TRANSPOSITION: Learning From ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    TilE PARADOX OF PEDAGOGY TRANSPOSITION: Learning From Inhibitors to Teacher Change: Lessons from a Zimbabwean. Research Project in Environmental Education. Kathy Stiles. Definition of paradox used in this paper is "a person or thing conflicting with a preconceived notion of what is reasonable or possible" ...

  16. A paradox in the global description of the multiverse

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bousso, Raphael [Center for Theoretical Physics, Department of Physics, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720-7300 (United States); Freivogel, Ben [Center for Theoretical Physics, Department of Physics, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720-7300 (United States)

    2007-06-15

    We use an argument by Page to exhibit a paradox in the global description of the multiverse: the overwhelming majority of observers arise from quantum fluctuations and not by conventional evolution. Unless we are extremely atypical, this contradicts observation. The paradox does not arise in the local description of the multiverse, but similar arguments yield interesting constraints on the maximum lifetime of metastable vacua.

  17. Obesity paradox in patients undergoing coronary intervention: A review

    OpenAIRE

    Patel, Nirav; Elsaid, Ossama; Shenoy, Abhishek; Sharma, Abhishek; McFarlane, Samy I

    2017-01-01

    There is strong relationship exist between obesity and cardiovascular disease including coronary artery disease (CAD). However, better outcomes noted in obese patients undergoing percutaneous cardiovascular interventions for CAD, a phenomenon known as the obesity paradox. In this review, we performed extensive search for obesity paradox in obese patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention and discussed possible mechanism and disparities in different race and sex.

  18. Paradox and Double Binds in Adventure-Based Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacon, Stephen Barcia

    Paradox and therapeutic double bind techniques are used to overcome resistance in students with a history of success avoidance. Predictions of failure, restraining comments, and the use of paradox in the midst of an activity are defended theoretically by presenting historical roots and a rationale of effectiveness. A skill-building approach…

  19. The "Paradox of Interdisciplinarity" in Australian Research Governance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woelert, Peter; Millar, Victoria

    2013-01-01

    This paper identifies what can be called the "paradox of interdisciplinarity" (Weingart 2000) in Australian higher education research governance and explores some of its constitutive dimensions. In the Australian context, the paradox of interdisciplinarity primarily concerns the proliferation of a programmatic discourse of…

  20. A Simple Explanation of the Classic Hydrostatic Paradox

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kontomaris, Stylianos-Vasileios; Malamou, Anna

    2016-01-01

    An interesting problem in fluid mechanics, with significant educational importance, is the classic hydrostatic paradox. The hydrostatic paradox states the fact that in different shaped containers, with the same base area, which are filled with a liquid of the same height, the applied force by the liquid on the base of each container is exactly the…

  1. A proof-theoretic account of the miners paradox

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Klev, Ansten

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 82, č. 4 (2016), s. 351-369 ISSN 1755-2567 Institutional support: RVO:67985955 Keywords : miners paradox * proof theory * Ramsey conditionals * Fitch's Paradox Subject RIV: AA - Philosophy ; Religion http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/theo.12090/full

  2. Software requirements specification for the program analysis and control system risk management module

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    SCHAEFER, J.C.

    1999-01-01

    TWR Program Analysis and Control System Risk Module is used to facilitate specific data processes surrounding the Risk Management program of the Tank Waste Retrieval environment. This document contains the Risk Management system requirements of the database system

  3. Indian paradox: Rising education, declining womens' employment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Esha Chatterjee

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Theories of human capital would suggest that with more education, women acquire greater skills and their earnings increase, resulting in higher labor force participation. However, it has been long known that in India, women's education has a U-shaped relationship with labor force participation. Part of the decline at moderate levels of education may be due to an income effect whereby women with more education marry into richer families that enable them to withdraw from the labor force. Objective: The paper uses the first comprehensive Indian income data to evaluate whether the other family income effect explains the negative relationship between moderate women's education and their labor force participation. Methods: Using two waves of the India Human Development Survey, a comprehensive measure of labor force participation is regressed on educational levels for currently married women aged 25-59. Results: We find a strong other family income effect that explains some but not all of the U-shape education relationship. Further analyses suggest the importance of a lack of suitable employment opportunities for moderately educated women. Conclusions: Other factors need to be identified to explain the paradoxical U-shape relationship. We suggest the importance of occupational sex segregation, which excludes moderately educated Indian women from clerical and sales jobs. Contribution: This paper provides a more definitive test of the other family income effect and identifies new directions for future research that might explain the paradoxical U-curve relationship.

  4. Birthday Paradox for Multi-Collisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzuki, Kazuhiro; Tonien, Dongvu; Kurosawa, Kaoru; Toyota, Koji

    In this paper, we study multi-collision probability. For a hash function H:D→R with |R|=n, it has been believed that we can find an s-collision by hashing Q=n(s-1)/s times. We first show that this probability is at most 1/s! for any s, which is very small for large s. (for example, s=n(s-1)/s) Thus the above folklore is wrong for large s. We next show that if s is small, so that we can assume Q-s≈Q, then this probability is at least 1/s!-1/2(s!)2, which is very high for small s (for example, s is a constant). Thus the above folklore is true for small s. Moreover, we show that by hashing (s!)1/s×Q+s-1(≤n) times, an s-collision is found with probability approximately 0.5 for any n and s such that (s!/n)1/s≈0. Note that if s=2, it coincides with the usual birthday paradox. Hence it is a generalization of the birthday paradox to multi-collisions.

  5. Fermi's Paradox - The Last Challenge For Copernicanism?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ćirković, M. M.

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available We review Fermi's paradox (or the "Great Silence" problem, not only arguably the oldest and crucial problem for the Search for ExtraTerrestrial Intelligence (SETI, but also a conundrum of profound scientific, philosophical and cultural importance. By a simple analysis of observation selection effects, the correct resolution of Fermi's paradox is certain to tell us something about the future of humanity. Already more than three quarters of century old puzzle -- and a quarter of century since the last major review paper in the field by G. David Brin -- has generated many ingenious discussions and hypotheses. We analyze the often tacit methodological assumptions built in various answers to this puzzle and attempt a new classification of the numerous solutions proposed in an already huge literatureon the subject. Finally, we consider the ramifications of variousclasses of hypotheses for the practical SETI projects. Somewhatparadoxically, it seems that the class of (neocatastrophichypotheses gives, on the balance, the strongest justification tooptimism regarding our current and near-future SETI efforts.

  6. Economic risks of the system of state and municipal procurement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belokrylova Olga, S.

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In the paper the audit of economic risks at all stages of procurement for state and municipal needs from both customers and bidders is carried out on the basis of the implementation of the integrated approach . Stages in the procurement under a single contract system, which is characterized by the high economic risks are planning, supplier selection, conclusion and execution of the contract. A number of the measures according to the localization of economic risks are offered, in particular the implementation of compliance programs, which institutionalize the compliance by the organization, anti-corruption legislation; increasing qualification of specialists in public procurement and increased control through centralization of procurement.

  7. Virtual Water Scarcity Risk to the Global Trade System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qu, Shen; Liang, Sai; Konar, Megan; Zhu, Zeqi; Chiu, Anthony S F; Jia, Xiaoping; Xu, Ming

    2018-01-16

    Local water scarcity risk (LWSR, meaning potential economic output losses in water-using sectors due to physical water scarcity) can be transmitted to downstream economies through the globalized supply chains. To understand the vulnerability of the global economy to water scarcity, we examine the impacts of local water scarcity risk on the global trade system from 1995 to 2009. We observe increasingly intensified geographical separation between physical water scarcity and production losses due to water scarcity. We identify top nation-sectors in virtual water scarcity risk (VWSR) exports (indicating local water scarcity risk in each nation transmitted to foreign nations through its exports), including agriculture and utilities in major economies such as China, India, Spain, France, and Turkey. These nation-sectors are critical to the resilience of the global economy to water scarcity. We also identify top nation-sectors in virtual water scarcity risk imports (indicating each nation's vulnerability to foreign water scarcity risk through the global trade system), highlighting their vulnerability to distant water scarcity. Our findings reveal the need for nations to collaboratively manage and conserve water resources, and lay the foundation for firms in high VWSR-importing sectors to develop strategies to mitigate such risk.

  8. Conceptual Model of Offshore Wind Environmental Risk Evaluation System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Richard M.; Copping, Andrea E.; Van Cleve, Frances B.; Unwin, Stephen D.; Hamilton, Erin L.

    2010-06-01

    In this report we describe the development of the Environmental Risk Evaluation System (ERES), a risk-informed analytical process for estimating the environmental risks associated with the construction and operation of offshore wind energy generation projects. The development of ERES for offshore wind is closely allied to a concurrent process undertaken to examine environmental effects of marine and hydrokinetic (MHK) energy generation, although specific risk-relevant attributes will differ between the MHK and offshore wind domains. During FY10, a conceptual design of ERES for offshore wind will be developed. The offshore wind ERES mockup described in this report will provide a preview of the functionality of a fully developed risk evaluation system that will use risk assessment techniques to determine priority stressors on aquatic organisms and environments from specific technology aspects, identify key uncertainties underlying high-risk issues, compile a wide-range of data types in an innovative and flexible data organizing scheme, and inform planning and decision processes with a transparent and technically robust decision-support tool. A fully functional version of ERES for offshore wind will be developed in a subsequent phase of the project.

  9. Frequency of Systemic Risk Factors in Central Serous Chorioretinopathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islam, Qamar Ul; Hanif, Muhammad Kashif; Tareen, Sheraz

    2016-08-01

    To determine the frequency of various systemic risk factors associated with acute central serous chorioretinopathy (CSCR) in our setup. Descriptive case series. Armed Forces Institute of Ophthalmology (AFIO), Rawalpindi, from July 2011 to June 2014. All consecutive patients with acute CSCR who presented in the outpatient department during the study period were recruited. Clinical findings were endorsed on a pre-devised proforma with special emphasis on inquiring about known systemic risk factors for CSCR in detail from each patient. Patients were managed conservatively with control of modifiable risk factors and topical 0.1% Nepafenac eye drops. Analysis of data was done using SPSS version 13.0. Forty-four eyes of 42 patients were eligible for final analysis. The mean age of study population was 37.38 ±6.31 years with 38 (90.47%) male patients. Elevated serum cortisol and serum testosterone levels were found in 3 and 2 patients, respectively. Known systemic risk factors for CSCR were present in 36 (85.71%) patients with emotional stress/psychiatric disorder 15 (35.71%), Type Apersonality 11 (26.19%), smoking 10 (19.04%), hypertension 5 (11.90%), and acid peptic disease 4 (9.52%) were the most frequently found risk factors. Emotional stress/psychiatric illness, hypertension, acid peptic disease and use of exogenous steroids and other medicines are the established risk factors for CSCR that can be modified/withdrawn to reduce the morbidity related to CSCR.

  10. THE COMPLEX, YET SMALL WORLD OF GLOBAL MULTINATIONALS – INSIGHTS ON SOME APPARENT PARADOXES

    OpenAIRE

    OGREAN Claudia; HERCIU Mihaela

    2013-01-01

    Globalization, as it is today, shapes a complex, networked world – that embeds all the features (both vantages and liabilities) of a complex adaptive system. Being one of the biggest networks that define this world, the system of international business – characterized by diversity, (nondeterministic) interconnectivity and uncertainty – is also characterized by the small-world syndrome. Global multinationals are the best supporting agents in order to dismantle the apparent paradox of the compl...

  11. Construction of opening regional geological hazards risk assessment system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Jixiang; Zhang, Lizhong; Zhou, Xiaoyuan; Wang, Qian

    2011-10-01

    It's the basis of the regional geological hazard assessment of regional geological hazard risk research, and the result can provide foundation for planning of land and resources, selection of important project site, controlling, monitoring, and forecasting geological disaster, developing contingency measures for disaster, and environmental protection. With the development of GIS technology, methods and models of regional geological hazard assessment have made great progress, it gradually change from the qualitative and semi-quantitative to quantitative, systematic, spatial management. This paper proposed a user-oriented, method- oriented, category-oriented system of regional geological hazards risk assessment through discusses the key points of geological hazards risk assessment, and the requirements of geological disaster evaluation system development today. The new evaluation system fit varieties types of geological disaster evaluation in different areas, and it owns a very important practical significance.

  12. Risk analysis system for the transport of hazardous materials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Raemdonck, Koen; Macharis, Cathy; Mairesse, Olivier

    2013-06-01

    In this paper, a literature study on risk analysis systems for the transport of hazardous materials was conducted. The insights that resulted from this literature review have led to the development of a refined approach to map the risk of hazmat transport in Flanders based on historical accident data. The proposed framework allows setting up an overall risk map for hazmat transport by different transport modes. Additionally, a methodology to calculate a local accident risk, which takes local infrastructure parameters and accident data into account, is being introduced. In the presented framework one of the general principles is that the risk of a catastrophic hazmat incident can be divided into two parts, which can both be validated on the basis of accident data: (a) the calculation of the general probability of the occurrence of an accident based on international accident data of transport of hazardous materials--this is the basis for the global risk map, and (b) the calculation of the local probability of the occurrence of an accident based on accident data and infrastructure parameters of the complete available freight transport in Flanders--this is the basis for the local risk map. The ratio between these two results in a locality parameter, which represents the local specific circumstances that can lead to an accident. This evaluation framework makes it possible to estimate the risks of hazmat transport along a specific route for transport by road, rail, inland navigation and even pipelines. Copyright © 2013 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Credit risk transfer activities and systemic risk : How banks became less risky individually but posed greater risks to the financial system at the same time

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wagner, W.B.; Nijskens, R.G.M.

    2011-01-01

    A main cause of the crisis of 2007–2009 is the various ways through which banks have transferred credit risk in the financial system. We study the systematic risk of banks before the crisis, using two samples of banks respectively trading Credit Default Swaps (CDS) and issuing Collateralized Loan

  14. A computer aided reliability and risk assessment system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leicht, R.; Hecke, R. van; Wingender, H.J.

    1991-01-01

    Activities in the fields of reliability and risk analysis have led to the development of particular software tools which are now combined in the PC-based integrated CARARA system. The options available in this system cover a wide range of reliability-oriented tasks, e.g. organising raw failure data in the component/event data bank FDB, performing statistical analysis of those data with the program FDA, managing the resulting parameters in the reliability data bank RDB, and performing fault tree analysis with the fault tree code FTL or evaluating the risk of toxic or radioactive material release with the STAR code. (orig.)

  15. The paradox of algal blooms in oligotrophic waters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sundareshwar, P. V.; Upadhyay, S.; Abessa, M. B.; Honomichl, S.; Berdanier, B.; Spaulding, S.; Sandvik, C.; Trennepohl, A.

    2010-12-01

    Nutrient inputs to streams and lakes, primarily from anthropogenic sources, lead to eutrophic conditions that favor algal blooms with undesirable consequences. In contrast, low nutrient or oligotrophic waters rarely support algal blooms; such ecosystems are typically lower in productivity. Since the mid-1980’s however, the diatom Didymosphenia geminata has dramatically expanded its range colonizing oligotrophic rivers worldwide with blooms appearing as thick benthic mats. This recent global occurrence of Didymosphenia geminata blooms in temperate rivers has been perplexing in its pace of spread and the paradoxical nature of the nuisance growths. The blooms occur primarily in oligotrophic flowing waters, where phosphorus (P) availability often limits primary production. We present a biogeochemical process by which D. geminata mats adsorb both P and iron (Fe) from flowing waters and make P available for cellular uptake. The adsorbed P becomes bioavailable through biogeochemical processes that occur within the mat. The biogeochemical processes observed here while well accepted in benthic systems are novel for algal blooms in lotic habits. Enzymatic and bacterial processes such as Fe and sulfate reduction can release the adsorbed P and increase its bioavailability, creating a positive feedback between total stalk biomass and nutrient availability. Stalk affinity for Fe, Fe-P biogeochemistry, and interaction between watershed processes and climatic setting explain the paradoxical blooms, and the recent global spread of this invasive aquatic species. At a broader scale the study also implies that such algal blooms in oligotrophic environments can fundamentally alter the retention and longitudinal transfer of important nutrients such as P in streams and rivers.

  16. Risk management: application of early warning systems to emergency plans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, C.; Sterlacchini, S.; Pasuto, A.; de Amicis, M.

    2009-04-01

    Warning System and emergency plans are two fundamental elements of risk management and governance, but unfortunately, most of the times, they are developed independently one from the other, as sequential steps not necessary linked. The main goal of this research is to develop a methodology for applying Early Warning Systems - Community Based to the emergency plan using the results of social surveys and quantitative risk assessment, taking into account the administrative structure and the planning system of the study area, as well as the legislative obligations of each entity involved in the risk governance and emergency management. Using a integrative scientific and social approach to natural hazards the research aim to contribute to fill the gap between scientists, policy makers, stakeholders and community. Initially applied in Comunità Montana Valtellina di Tirano, Italy, the methodology involves the application of two comprehensive surveys. The first is addressed to stakeholders (including policy makers, emergency managers, emergency volunteers, consultants and scientists) in order to determine their needs, points of view, concerns and constraints. The second survey is addressed specifically to local community to assess risk perception, awareness, needs, capacity and level of trust towards stakeholders, besides asking for their willingness to participate in future risk communication activities. The Early Warning System developed includes all the stages of the early warning process (hazard evaluation and forecasting; warning and dissemination and public response) and would be based on a multidisciplinary partnership that takes into account the different actors involved in the risk management in order to accomplish a more reliable and credible result, including an emergency plan specifically designed for each study area. After evaluating the results of the surveys, information and education campaigns will be developed with the objective of reducing vulnerability

  17. Improving the System of Risk Management in Ukrainian Banks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Skasko Oleh I.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The goal of the article lies in the study of evolution of formation of the risk management system in Ukrainian banks, main instruments, methods of risk management and organisational approaches to formation of subdivisions of risk management and corporate management in banks. Analysing recommendations of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, legislative and regulatory acts, which form organisational and methodological requirements by risk management in banks, the article reveals shortcomings of its functioning. The article gives proposals on improvement of riskology in Ukrainian banks, namely: introduction of the requirement for risk assessment and stress testing by banks in the medium-term prospective (up to 3 years, which would reveal risks of realisation of long-term bank programmes, potential losses of receipts and capital due to existing gaps between the terms of performance of obligations by assets and liabilities, etc. In the result of the study the article establishes that in order to realise requirements of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision on organisation of subdivisions of risk management in banks, it is necessary to introduce qualification requirements to managers of these services and procedures of their assignment/retirement in co-ordination with the banking supervision service, the status of which in the bank is not lower than managers of the internal audit and financial monitoring services, assignment of whom should be mandatory co-ordinated with NBU.

  18. Credit Risk Versus Performance in the Romanian Banking System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sbârcea Ioana Raluca

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The Romanian banking sector, predominantly governed by the capital of foreign banks, is, as well as other international banking sectors, under the sign of the necessary balance that should exist between risk and performance. This is a result of banks trying to take risks that they can control, given that they need to generate financial results that are satisfactory for all categories of bank creditors, namely shareholders, depositors and other lenders. In this paper, I wanted to analyze the risk situation assumed by the main banks in the system versus the performance gained in recent years. This article is part of a wider research, so I will refer only to the main risk assumed by a bank, namely the credit risk, I will highlight the evolution of the indicators of this risk, so that I can finally analyze their degree of correlation with indicators for measuring bank performance. The situation of other financial risks in banking activity will be addressed in other works.

  19. The perception of the risk and the system of communication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Touzet, Rodolfo

    2008-01-01

    depend on the conditions of the external environment or on the social local context. One of the most important factors is the related with the direct benefits that are perceived. This determines, for example, that a person perceives minor risks of his cellular telephone that of the antennas (That allows that the system should work) when the situation is exactly the opposite one. It is very important that the society establishes a system of rational and independent communication with all the affected parts (stake holders) that allows to safeguard the systems of control. The system of communication must be independent and cannot be handled or influenced by those that perceive an economic benefit since they are an interested part. In this presentation a methodology and strategy is proposed for the communication with different groups affected by the risks come so much of the ionizing or non ionizing radiation. (author)

  20. The evolutionary paradox and the missing heritability of schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Dongen, Jenny; Boomsma, Dorret I

    2013-03-01

    Schizophrenia is one of the most detrimental common psychiatric disorders, occurring at a prevalence of approximately 1%, and characterized by increased mortality and reduced reproduction, especially in men. The heritability has been estimated around 70% and the genome-wide association meta-analyses conducted by the Psychiatric Genomics Consortium have been successful at identifying an increasing number of risk loci. Various theories have been proposed to explain why genetic variants that predispose to schizophrenia persist in the population, despite the fitness reduction in affected individuals, a question known as the evolutionary paradox. In this review, we consider evolutionary perspectives of schizophrenia and of the empirical evidence that may support these perspectives. Proposed evolutionary explanations include balancing selection, fitness trade-offs, fluctuating environments, sexual selection, mutation-selection balance and genomic conflicts. We address the expectations about the genetic architecture of schizophrenia that are predicted by different evolutionary scenarios and discuss the implications for genetic studies. Several potential sources of "missing" heritability, including gene-environment interactions, epigenetic variation, and rare genetic variation are examined from an evolutionary perspective. A better understanding of evolutionary history may provide valuable clues to the genetic architecture of schizophrenia and other psychiatric disorders, which is highly relevant to genetic studies that aim to detect genetic risk variants. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  1. A SIMPLE METHOD FOR MEASURING SYSTEMIC RISK USING CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP MARKET DATA

    OpenAIRE

    SANGWON SUH; INWON JANG; MISUN AHN

    2013-01-01

    This paper proposes a simple method that employs credit default swap (CDS) data for analyzing systemic risk. The proposed method overcomes inconsistency problems in existing methods and can produce various indicators of systemic risk in a consistent manner. In addition, this method can measure systemic risk contributions. In particular, the method measures systemic risk contributions in both directions, that is, the overall effect of systemic risk on individual credit risks and vice versa. Us...

  2. Mitigating project development and facility operation risks with systems engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ansorge, Wolfgang R.

    2004-09-01

    The presentation illustrates the standard life cycles and project phases of a typical large scale astronomical facility acqui-sition and development project and explains the role of Systems Engineering (SE) during the entire project life cycle. The basic SE philosophy and systematic SE approach are described and a road map identifying the main activities of SE during the individual project phases - from the requirement definition to the eventual validation of the erected system- is developed. In addition the presentation describes the methodologies and processes SE can offer to analyse the risks asso-ciated with the definition, development and implementation of large complex scientific infrastructure projects. Risk control methods and approaches which are necessary to systematically reduce the technical, financial and schedule risks to a level acceptable to the scientific / technical project management and to the funding agencies are explained.

  3. Method and system for dynamic probabilistic risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dugan, Joanne Bechta (Inventor); Xu, Hong (Inventor)

    2013-01-01

    The DEFT methodology, system and computer readable medium extends the applicability of the PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment) methodology to computer-based systems, by allowing DFT (Dynamic Fault Tree) nodes as pivot nodes in the Event Tree (ET) model. DEFT includes a mathematical model and solution algorithm, supports all common PRA analysis functions and cutsets. Additional capabilities enabled by the DFT include modularization, phased mission analysis, sequence dependencies, and imperfect coverage.

  4. Instability risk analysis and risk assessment system establishment of underground storage caverns in bedded salt rock

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jing, Wenjun; Zhao, Yan

    2018-02-01

    Stability is an important part of geotechnical engineering research. The operating experiences of underground storage caverns in salt rock all around the world show that the stability of the caverns is the key problem of safe operation. Currently, the combination of theoretical analysis and numerical simulation are the mainly adopts method of reserve stability analysis. This paper introduces the concept of risk into the stability analysis of underground geotechnical structure, and studies the instability of underground storage cavern in salt rock from the perspective of risk analysis. Firstly, the definition and classification of cavern instability risk is proposed, and the damage mechanism is analyzed from the mechanical angle. Then the main stability evaluating indicators of cavern instability risk are proposed, and an evaluation method of cavern instability risk is put forward. Finally, the established cavern instability risk assessment system is applied to the analysis and prediction of cavern instability risk after 30 years of operation in a proposed storage cavern group in the Huai’an salt mine. This research can provide a useful theoretical base for the safe operation and management of underground storage caverns in salt rock.

  5. Weighing of risk factors for penetrating keratoplasty graft failure: application of Risk Score System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdo Karim Tourkmani

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available AIM: To analyze the relationship between the score obtained in the Risk Score System (RSS proposed by Hicks et al with penetrating keratoplasty (PKP graft failure at 1y postoperatively and among each factor in the RSS with the risk of PKP graft failure using univariate and multivariate analysis. METHODS: The retrospective cohort study had 152 PKPs from 152 patients. Eighteen cases were excluded from our study due to primary failure (10 cases, incomplete medical notes (5 cases and follow-up less than 1y (3 cases. We included 134 PKPs from 134 patients stratified by preoperative risk score. Spearman coefficient was calculated for the relationship between the score obtained and risk of failure at 1y. Univariate and multivariate analysis were calculated for the impact of every single risk factor included in the RSS over graft failure at 1y. RESULTS: Spearman coefficient showed statistically significant correlation between the score in the RSS and graft failure (P0.05 between diagnosis and lens status with graft failure. The relationship between the other risk factors studied and graft failure was significant (P<0.05, although the results for previous grafts and graft failure was unreliable. None of our patients had previous blood transfusion, thus, it had no impact. CONCLUSION: After the application of multivariate analysis techniques, some risk factors do not show the expected impact over graft failure at 1y.

  6. Dutch Risk Assessment System for New Chemicals: Soil Groundwater Module

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Swartjes FA; van der Linden AMA; van den Berg R

    1993-01-01

    A new Soil-Groundwater Module has been developed for incorporation in the Dutch Risk Assessment System for New Chemicals. In this module, the exposure of humans and the environment to xenobiotic substances due to sewage sludge application have been determined. Exposure criteria were: 1.

  7. Considerations on Risk in Supply Chain Management Information Systems Implementation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valentin-Petru Măzăreanu

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Innovation in information and communication technologies resulted in the digital revolution. This kind of revolution is changing the way people work, learn, communicate and manage their businesses. Due to the need to achieve the competitive advantage and to meet the business requirements, we are witnessing an increasing shift from business to e-business and mobile business. In this kind of world solutions like Supply Chain Management (SCM are increasingly appearing. The business success depends on how effective the information system works. Any interruption of the information system will inevitably lead to business loss. To ensure the successful implementation of a SCM project it is necessary to study even from the early stages which are the possible actions / risks / obstacles which might damage in one way or another the execution of the project. The role of the literature and case studies review in the field of interest is undeniable because it provides us with access to the so-called lessons-learned. By using this approach, in this paper, we present the most common risks and risk sources encountered in the implementation projects of SCM type information systems. We also propose a risk identification framework that can be used in the early stages of the implementation project of a Supply Chain Management information system.

  8. Validation of the MARS (Medical Admission Risk System)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ohman, Malin Charlotta; Atkins, Tara E Holm; Cooksley, Tim

    2018-01-01

    Background: The MARS (Medical Admission Risk System) uses 11 physiological and laboratory data and had promising results in its derivation study for predicting 5 and 7 day mortality. Aim: To perform an external independent validation of the MARS score. Design: An unplanned secondary cohort study....

  9. Evaluation of forest management systems under risk of wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kari Hyytiainen; Robert G. Haight

    2010-01-01

    We evaluate the economic efficiency of even- and uneven-aged management systems under risk of wildfire. The management problems are formulated for a mixed-conifer stand and approximations of the optimal solutions are obtained using simulation optimization. The Northern Idaho variant of the Forest Vegetation Simulator and its Fire and Fuels Extension is used to predict...

  10. The periodontal pain paradox: Difficulty on pain assesment in dental patients (The periodontal pain paradox hypothesis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haryono Utomo

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available In daily dental practice, the majority of patients’ main complaints are related to pain. Most patients assume that all pains inside the oral cavity originated from the tooth. One particular case is thermal sensitivity; sometimes patients were being able to point the site of pain, although there is neither visible caries nor secondary caries in dental radiograph. In this case, gingival recession and dentin hypersensitivity are first to be treated to eliminate the pain. If these treatments failed, pain may misdiagnose as pulpal inflammation and lead to unnecessary root canal treatment. Study in pain during periodontal instrumentation of plaque-related periodontitis revealed that the majority of patients feel pain and discomfort during probing and scaling. It seems obvious because an inflammation, either acute or chronic is related to a lowered pain threshold. However, in contrast, in this case report, patient suffered from chronic gingivitis and thermal sensitivity experienced a relative pain-free sensation during probing and scaling. Lowered pain threshold which accompanied by a blunted pain perception upon periodontal instrumentation is proposed to be termed as the periodontal pain paradox. The objective of this study is to reveal the possibility of certain factors in periodontal inflammation which may involved in the periodontal pain paradox hypothesis. Patient with thermal hypersensitivity who was conducted probing and scaling, after the relative pain-free instrumentation, thermal hypersensitivity rapidly disappeared. Based on the successful periodontal treatment, it is concluded that chronic gingivitis may modulate periodontal pain perception which termed as periodontal pain paradox

  11. [Euthanasia and the paradoxes of autonomy].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siqueira-Batista, Rodrigo; Schramm, Fermin Roland

    2008-01-01

    The principle of respect for autonomy has proved very useful for bioethical arguments in favor of euthanasia. However unquestionable its theoretical efficacy, countless aporiae can be raised when conducting a detailed analysis of this concept, probably checkmating it. Based on such considerations, this paper investigates the principle of autonomy, starting with its origins in Greek and Christian traditions, and then charting some of its developments in Western cultures through to its modern formulation, a legacy of Immanuel Kant. The main paradoxes of this concept are then presented in the fields of philosophy, biology, psychoanalysis and politics, expounding several of the theoretical difficulties to be faced in order to make its applicability possible within the scope of decisions relating to the termination of life.

  12. Partial Actions, Paradoxicality and Topological full Groups

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scarparo, Eduardo

    uniform Roe algebra is finite. In Article C, we analyze the C*-algebra generated by the Koopman representation of a topological full group, showing, in particular, that it is not AF andhas real rank zero. We also prove that if G is a finitely generated, elementary amenable group, and C*(G) has real rank......We study how paradoxicality properties affect the way groups partially acton topological spaces and C*-algebras. We also investigate the real rank zero and AF properties for certain classes of group C*-algebras. Specifically, in article A, we characterize supramenable groups in terms of existence...... of invariant probability measures for partial actions on compact Hausdorff spaces and existence of tracial states on partial crossed products. These characterizations show that, in general, one cannot decompose a partial crossed product of a C*-algebra by a semidirect product of groups as two iterated...

  13. The paradoxes of small Public Private Partnerships

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koch, Christian; Jensen, Jesper Ole

    not through databases containing data on realized PPP-s possible to find any lower limit for these established PPPs. This apparent paradox is then qualitatively investigated. Are these small PPP really full blown PPP? It is investigated whether the PPP are really Design, Build, Finance and Operate project......It is commonly assumed that transaction costs linked to the establishment of Public Private Partnerships (PPP), make it prohibitive to make them too small. In a Danish context this has been safeguarded by the authorities, which recommend sizes over 13, 4 million euro (100 million euro......). The research behind this paper sets out the challenge this size limit. The paper present quantitative and qualitative material on small PPP on the Italian and British real estate market. It is shown that small PPP (below 13,4 million euro) are widespread in the two investigated countries. It is thus...

  14. The St. Petersburg paradox: An experimental solution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Da Silva, Sergio; Matsushita, Raul

    2016-03-01

    The St. Petersburg paradox refers to a gamble of infinite expected value, where people are likely to spend only a small entrance fee for it. There is a huge volume of literature that mostly concentrates on the psychophysics of the game; experiments are scant. Here, rather than focusing on the psychophysics, we offer an experimental, "physical" solution as if robots played the game. After examining the time series formed by one billion plays, we: confirm that there is no characteristic scale for this game; explicitly formulate the implied power law; and identify the type of α-stable distribution associated with the game. We find an α = 1 and, thus, the underlying distribution of the game is a Cauchy flight, as hinted by Paul Samuelson.

  15. Paradoxes and Opportunities in Logistic Outsourcing Research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Đurđica Stojanović

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Historically, very few logistic trends have caught the attention of academics and practitioners to the same extent as outsourcing. A comprehensive literature review reveals two reasons for this continual topicality. The problem complexity and the business environment dynamics – including an interaction with other main trends in logistics and modern supply chains – both led to a permanent literature gap, indicating the need to explore some new aspects of logistics outsourcing (LO. In this paper, a new LO research perspective has been explored by identifying some weaknesses in the main LO research streams and related common viewpoints which led to six ‘logistics outsourcing research paradoxes’. Each of these paradoxes is briefly described and their links with research streams and common views on LO discussed. Finally, the nature of some known opportunities for further research is better explained and some overlooked research opportunities are highlighted.

  16. Cosmic time dilation: The clock paradox revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tomaschitz, Roman

    2004-01-01

    The relativistic time dilation is reviewed in a cosmological context. We show that a clock or twin paradox does not arise if cosmic time is properly taken into account. The receding galaxy background provides a unique frame of reference, and the proper times of geodesic as well as accelerated observers can be linked to the universal cosmic time parameter. This suggests to compare the proper time differentials of the respective observers by determining their state of motion in the galaxy grid. In this way, each observer can figure out whether his proper time is dilated or contracted relative to any other. In particular one can come to unambiguous conclusions on the aging of uniformly moving observers, without reference to asymmetries in measurement procedures or accelerations they may have undergone

  17. Disease-related nutritional risk and mortality in systemic sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cereda, Emanuele; Codullo, Veronica; Klersy, Catherine; Breda, Silvia; Crippa, Anna; Rava, Maria Luisa; Orlandi, Margherita; Bonardi, Chiara; Fiorentini, Maria Lina; Caporali, Roberto; Caccialanza, Riccardo

    2014-06-01

    To evaluate the relationship between mortality and nutritional risk associated with disease activity in Systemic Sclerosis (SSc). A single-centre prospective cohort study involving 160 SSc outpatients (median age, 62 years [25th-75th, 54-68]). Nutritional risk was assessed by the Malnutrition Universal Screening Tool (MUST), a screening tool that combines anthropometric parameters of nutritional status (body mass index [BMI] and percentage of unintentional weight loss [WL]) with the presence of an "acute disease" (as defined by a disease activity score ≥3 according to Valentini's criteria). Prevalence of high nutritional risk (MUST score ≥2) was 24.4% [95%CI, 17.4-31.3]. A low nutritional risk (MUST = 1) was detected in 30% of our study sample. In hazard analysis (median follow-up duration = 46 months [25th-75th percentile, 31-54]), high nutritional risk was significantly associated with mortality (HR = 8.3 [95%CI, 2.1-32.1]). The performance of the model based on nutritional risk including disease activity (Harrell's c = 0.74 [95%CI, 0.59-0.89]) was superior to that based on active disease alone (HR = 6.3 [95%CI, 1.8-21.7]; Harrell's c = 0.68 [95%CI, 0.53-0.84]). Risk scored only by anthropometric parameters (prevalence, 9.4% [95%CI, 4.6-14.2]) was not associated with mortality: HR = 2.8 [95%CI, 0.6-13.2]. In SSc outpatients MUST significantly predicts mortality. The combined assessment of nutritional parameters and disease activity significantly improves the evaluation of mortality risk. Disease-related nutritional risk screening should be systematically included in the clinical workup of every SSc patient. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

  18. Simpson’s Paradox in Psychological Science: A Practical Guide

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rogier eKievit

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available The direction of an association at the population-level may be reversed within the subgroups comprising that population—a striking observation called Simpson’s paradox. When facing this pattern, psychologists often view it as anomalous. Here, we argue that Simpson’s paradox is more common than conventionally thought, and typically results in incorrect interpretations – potentially with harmful consequences. We support this claim by drawing on empirical results from cognitive neuroscience, behavior genetics, psychopathology, personality psychology, educational psychology, intelligence research, and simulation studies. We show that Simpson’s Paradox is most likely to occur when inferences are drawn across different levels of explanation (e.g., from populations to subgroups, or subgroups to individuals. We propose a set of statistical markers indicative of the paradox, and offer psychometric solutions for dealing with the paradox when encountered—including a toolbox in R for detecting Simpson’s Paradox. We show that explicit modeling of situations in which the paradox might occur not only prevents incorrect interpretations of data, but also results in a deeper understanding of what data tell us about the world.

  19. The Epigenetic Paradox of Pluripotent ES Cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Festuccia, Nicola; Gonzalez, Inma; Navarro, Pablo

    2017-05-19

    The propagation and maintenance of gene expression programs are at the foundation of the preservation of cell identity. A large and complex set of epigenetic mechanisms enables the long-term stability and inheritance of transcription states. A key property of authentic epigenetic regulation is being independent from the instructive signals used for its establishment. This makes epigenetic regulation, particularly epigenetic silencing, extremely robust and powerful to lock regulatory states and stabilise cell identity. In line with this, the establishment of epigenetic silencing during development restricts cell potency and maintains the cell fate choices made by transcription factors (TFs). However, how more immature cells that have not yet established their definitive fate maintain their transitory identity without compromising their responsiveness to signalling cues remains unclear. A paradigmatic example is provided by pluripotent embryonic stem (ES) cells derived from a transient population of cells of the blastocyst. Here, we argue that ES cells represent an interesting "epigenetic paradox": even though they are captured in a self-renewing state characterised by extremely efficient maintenance of their identity, which is a typical manifestation of robust epigenetic regulation, they seem not to heavily rely on classical epigenetic mechanisms. Indeed, self-renewal strictly depends on the TFs that previously instructed their undifferentiated identity and relies on a particular signalling-dependent chromatin state where repressive chromatin marks play minor roles. Although this "epigenetic paradox" may underlie their exquisite responsiveness to developmental cues, it suggests that alternative mechanisms to faithfully propagate gene regulatory states might be prevalent in ES cells. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  20. A medical paradox: curative versus preventive medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brock, J F

    1976-08-07

    A familiar medical contrast is presented as part of a modern medical problem. The problem it reflects is the relative importance of preventive and curative services for medical practitioners, which is already, or will shortly resolve itself into, a dilemma of whether medical men should stress preventive medicine to the possible detriment of curative medicine. It is submitted that the solution to both problem and dilemma should be sought against the background of history and philosophy, where they are seen to be expressions of an eternal paradox--that of the relative value of the individual in relation to the family, group, or community. If the submission is valid, then the answer to the problem is not a purely medical exercise, nor is the dilemma purely a 'doctor's dilemma'. The paradox, being eternal, is not soluble in our time, but the community must, on the urging of the medical profession, find a general solution to the problem--'a public consensus for out time'. This must be followed by public demand for a parliamentary solution--'decision-making ex consensus'. It is argued that although the latter programme does not come easily to democracy, it can be achieved through public consensus if action is taken by the leaders of thought in appropriate categories. Initiative must be exercised by the medical profession, but public consensus can only be achieved in consultation with the leaders of all learned professions, civil servants and legislators. It must then be presented fairly and without bias to the public. In the meantime, the medical profession must formulate its own 'medical consensus' and the doctor must resolve his personal dilemma according to formulated law, public or medical consensus or, in the last resort, according to his conviction and conscience. This method of solving a problem will almost certainly be applicable to other and more recent medical problems such as the population explosion, selective abortion and euthanasia.

  1. Simpson's paradox: A statistician's case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Kevin H; Brown, Nathan J; Pelecanos, Anita; Brown, Anthony Ft

    2018-02-26

    Gender equality and workforce diversity has recently been in the forefront of College discussions. Reasons for the difference between various groups may not be as they initially appeared. The results of comparing the outcome between two groups can sometimes be confounded and even reversed by an unrecognised third variable. This concept is known as Simpson's Paradox, and is illustrated here using a renowned case study on potential gender bias for acceptance to Graduate School at the University of California, Berkeley.  The investigation showed that males were 1.8 times more likely to be admitted to Graduate School than females in 1973. Initially it appeared that women were discriminated against in the selection process. However, when admissions were re-examined at individual Departments of the School, admission tended to be better for women than men in four of six Departments. This contradiction or paradox tells us that the association between admission and gender was dependent upon on Department.  The confounding effect of Department was defined by two characteristics. Firstly, a strong association between Department and admission: some Departments admitted much smaller percentages of applicants than others. Secondly, a strong association between Department and gender: females tended to apply to Departments with lower admission rates.  The explanation of differences between groups can be multifactorial. A search for possible confounders will assist in this understanding. This could apply whenever two groups initially appear to differ, but on closer analysis this difference is either unfounded, or even reversed by reference to a third, confounding variable. © 2018 Australasian College for Emergency Medicine and Australasian Society for Emergency Medicine.

  2. The paradox of homeless youth pregnancy: a review of challenges and opportunities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Begun, Stephanie

    2015-01-01

    Compared to their housed counterparts, homeless youth become pregnant at exceptionally high rates. Causes of such pregnancies are multifaceted, while a paradoxically high proportion of these pregnancies are intended. This review discusses causes and risk factors associated with homeless youth pregnancies, and notes experiences of pregnancy decision-making discord, challenges encountered during and following pregnancy, and difficulties faced by homeless youth when or if they become parents. Because homeless youth face a wide array of unique risks, future research would benefit from exploring alternative approaches to prevention to reduce pregnancies and improve sexual and reproductive health outcomes among this population.

  3. Managing Risks? Early Warning Systems for Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sitati, A. M.; Zommers, Z. A.; Habilov, M.

    2014-12-01

    Early warning systems are a tool with which to minimize risks posed by climate related hazards. Although great strides have been made in developing early warning systems most deal with one hazard, only provide short-term warnings and do not reach the most vulnerable. This presentation will review research results of the United Nations Environment Programme's CLIM-WARN project. The project seeks to identify how governments can better communicate risks by designing multi-hazard early warning systems that deliver actionable warnings across timescales. Household surveys and focus group discussions were conducted in 36 communities in Kenya, Ghana and Burkina Faso in order to identify relevant climate related hazards, current response strategies and early warning needs. Preliminary results show significant variability in both risks and needs within and between countries. For instance, floods are more frequent in rural western parts of Kenya. Droughts are frequent in the north while populations in urban areas face a range of hazards - floods, droughts, disease outbreaks - that sometimes occur simultaneously. The majority of the rural population, especially women, the disabled and the elderly, do not have access to modern media such as radio, television, or internet. While 55% of rural populace never watches television, 64% of urban respondents watch television on a daily basis. Communities have different concepts of how to design warning systems. It will be a challenge for national governments to create systems that accommodate such diversity yet provide standard quality of service to all. There is a need for flexible and forward-looking early warning systems that deliver broader information about risks. Information disseminated through the system could not only include details of hazards, but also long-term adaptation options, general education, and health information, thus increasingly both capabilities and response options.

  4. Reduction of Systemic Risk by Means of Pigouvian Taxation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zlatić, Vinko; Gabbi, Giampaolo; Abraham, Hrvoje

    2015-01-01

    We analyze the possibility of reduction of systemic risk in financial markets through Pigouvian taxation of financial institutions, which is used to support the rescue fund. We introduce the concept of the cascade risk with a clear operational definition as a subclass and a network related measure of the systemic risk. Using financial networks constructed from real Italian money market data and using realistic parameters, we show that the cascade risk can be substantially reduced by a small rate of taxation and by means of a simple strategy of the money transfer from the rescue fund to interbanking market subjects. Furthermore, we show that while negative effects on the return on investment (ROI) are direct and certain, an overall positive effect on risk adjusted return on investments (ROIRA) is visible. Please note that the taxation is introduced as a monetary/regulatory, not as a _scal measure, as the term could suggest. The rescue fund is implemented in a form of a common reserve fund.

  5. Development and evaluation of an automated fall risk assessment system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ju Young; Jin, Yinji; Piao, Jinshi; Lee, Sun-Mi

    2016-04-01

    Fall risk assessment is the first step toward prevention, and a risk assessment tool with high validity should be used. This study aimed to develop and validate an automated fall risk assessment system (Auto-FallRAS) to assess fall risks based on electronic medical records (EMRs) without additional data collected or entered by nurses. This study was conducted in a 1335-bed university hospital in Seoul, South Korea. The Auto-FallRAS was developed using 4211 fall-related clinical data extracted from EMRs. Participants included fall patients and non-fall patients (868 and 3472 for the development study; 752 and 3008 for the validation study; and 58 and 232 for validation after clinical application, respectively). The system was evaluated for predictive validity and concurrent validity. The final 10 predictors were included in the logistic regression model for the risk-scoring algorithm. The results of the Auto-FallRAS were shown as high/moderate/low risk on the EMR screen. The predictive validity analyzed after clinical application of the Auto-FallRAS was as follows: sensitivity = 0.95, NPV = 0.97 and Youden index = 0.44. The validity of the Morse Fall Scale assessed by nurses was as follows: sensitivity = 0.68, NPV = 0.88 and Youden index = 0.28. This study found that the Auto-FallRAS results were better than were the nurses' predictions. The advantage of the Auto-FallRAS is that it automatically analyzes information and shows patients' fall risk assessment results without requiring additional time from nurses. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press in association with the International Society for Quality in Health Care; all rights reserved.

  6. Risk evaluation system for operational events and inspection findings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lopez G, A.; Godinez S, V.; Lopez M, R., E-mail: alopezg@cnsns.gob.m [Comision Nacional de Seguridad Nuclear y Salvaguardias, Dr. Barragan No. 779, Col. Narvarte, 03020 Mexico D. F. (Mexico)

    2010-10-15

    The Mexican Nuclear Regulatory Commission has developed an adaptation of the US NRC Significance Determination Process (SDP) to evaluate the risk significance of operational events and inspection findings in Laguna Verde nuclear power plant. The Mexican Nuclear Regulatory Commission developed a plant specific flow chart for preliminary screening instead of the open questionnaire used by the US NRC-SDP, with the aim to improve the accuracy of the screening process. Also, the work sheets and support information tables required by the SDP were built up in an Excel application which allows to perform the risk evaluation in an automatic way, focusing the regulator staff efforts in the risk significance analysis instead of the risk calculation tasks. In order to construct this tool a simplified PRA model was developed and validated with the individual plant examination model. This paper shows the Mexican Nuclear Regulatory Commission process and some risk events evaluations performed using the Risk Evaluation System for Operational Events and Inspection Findings (SERHE, by its acronyms in Spanish). (Author)

  7. Trivial risks and the new radiation protection system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wikman, Per

    2004-01-01

    The International Commission on Radiological Protection proposes that doses below a certain level should be excluded from the system of protection, without regard to the number of people exposed. As the Commission assumes that there is a risk of harm even from very low doses, the proposal also disregards these very low risks. The arguments for this proposal are examined here. It is argued that the fact that risks are small compared to natural sources cannot be used as justification for accepting them. The principle 'if the risk of harm to the health of the most exposed individual is trivial, then the total risk is trivial-irrespective of how many people are exposed' is analysed. It is found to equivocate on the meaning of the word trivial and to ignore the total risk. It is also argued that the new proposal is not justified by a change from a utilitarian ethic to an ethic based on individual rights. Finally, it is suggested that small doses should only be disregarded if the expected value of harm is small, and the exclusion level should thus depend on the number of people exposed

  8. Risk evaluation system for operational events and inspection findings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopez G, A.; Godinez S, V.; Lopez M, R.

    2010-10-01

    The Mexican Nuclear Regulatory Commission has developed an adaptation of the US NRC Significance Determination Process (SDP) to evaluate the risk significance of operational events and inspection findings in Laguna Verde nuclear power plant. The Mexican Nuclear Regulatory Commission developed a plant specific flow chart for preliminary screening instead of the open questionnaire used by the US NRC-SDP, with the aim to improve the accuracy of the screening process. Also, the work sheets and support information tables required by the SDP were built up in an Excel application which allows to perform the risk evaluation in an automatic way, focusing the regulator staff efforts in the risk significance analysis instead of the risk calculation tasks. In order to construct this tool a simplified PRA model was developed and validated with the individual plant examination model. This paper shows the Mexican Nuclear Regulatory Commission process and some risk events evaluations performed using the Risk Evaluation System for Operational Events and Inspection Findings (SERHE, by its acronyms in Spanish). (Author)

  9. Climate impact on social systems. The risk assessment approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Svirezhev, Y.M.; Schellnhuber, H.-J.

    1993-01-01

    A novel approach to the problem of estimating climate impact on social systems is suggested. This approach is based on a risk concept, where the notion of critical events is introduced and the probability of such event is estimated. The estimation considers both the real stochasticity of climatic processes and the artificial stochasticity of climate predictions due to scientific uncertainties. The method is worked out in some detail for the regional problem of crop production and the risks associated with global climate change, and illustrated by a case study (Kursk region of the FSU). In order to get local climatic characteristics (weather) a so-called 'statistical weather generator' is used. One interesting finding is that the 3%-risk level remains constant up to 1- -1.1 deg. C rise of mean seasonal temperature, if the variance does not change. On the other hand, the risk grows rapidly with increasing variance (even if the mean temperature rises very slowly). The risk approach allows to separate two problems: (i) assessment of Global Change impact and (ii) decision-making. The main task for the scientific community is to provide the politicians with different options; the choice of admissible (from the social point of view) critical events and the corresponding risk levels is the business of decision makers. (au)

  10. The food-insecurity obesity paradox: A resource scarcity hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhurandhar, Emily J

    2016-08-01

    Food insecurity is paradoxically associated with obesity in the United States. Current hypotheses to explain this phenomenon are descriptive regarding the low food security population's dietary and physical activity habits, but are not mechanistic. Herein it is proposed that a resource scarcity hypothesis may explain this paradox, such that fattening is a physiologically regulated response to threatened food supply that occurs specifically in low social status individuals. Evidence that this may be occurring, the implications for addressing the food insecurity-obesity paradox, and future areas of research, are reviewed and discussed. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  11. General principles of institutional risks influence on pension systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nepp, A. N.; Shilkov, A. A.; Sheveleva, A. Y.; Mamedbakov, M. R.

    2016-12-01

    This paper examines the tools used to study the influence of institutional factors on investment returns. The research object are the tools used in the evaluation of institutional risks in the pension system, in particular, the correlation model of factors impacting on the `anti-director' index, econometric estimates combining the different determinants of savings, the model of endogenous institutional change, etc. Research work focusing on issues of institutional factors affecting pension systems (authored by La Porta, Guiso, Gianetti, El-Mekkaouide Freitas, Neyapti B., and others) is reviewed. The model is examined in terms of the impact of institutional risks on pension systems, especially with regard to the funded part. The study identified the following factors that affect financial institutions, including pension institutions: management quality, regulation quality, rule of law, political stability, and corruption control.

  12. Risk Management System and Project Staff Education Program for Overseas Construction Project Using the Expert System

    OpenAIRE

    Hirota, Yoichi

    2007-01-01

    The turnover of the Japanese contractors and the consulting firms has kept the same level since 1983, in spite of the fact that the size of domestic market is shrinking. This is why they do not have a proper management system, especially risk management system for the overseas construction projects. This study aims at building risk management system and developing education program that can be applied to reinforcing the ability, based on the author’s experience. Risk is defined as “uncertain ...

  13. Interactive computations: toward risk management in interactive intelligent systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skowron, Andrzej; Jankowski, Andrzej

    Understanding the nature of interactions is regarded as one of the biggest challenges in projects related to complex adaptive systems. We discuss foundations for interactive computations in interactive intelligent systems (IIS), developed in the Wistech program and used for modeling complex systems. We emphasize the key role of risk management in problem solving by IIS. The considerations are based on experience gained in real-life projects concerning, e.g., medical diagnosis and therapy support, control of an unmanned helicopter, fraud detection algorithmic trading or fire commander decision support.

  14. Cluster Analytical Method of Fault Risk Analysis in Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michaľčonok, German; Horalová Kalinová, Michaela

    2016-12-01

    In providing safety functions, the proposal of safety functions of control systems is an important part of a risk reduction strategy. In the specification of security requirements, it is necessary to determine and document individual characteristics and the desired performance level for each safety. This article presents the results of the experiment cluster analysis. The results of the experiment prove that the methods of cluster analysis provide a suitable tool for analyzing the reliability of safety systems analysis. Regarding the increasing complexity of the systems, we can state that the application of these methods in the subject area is a good choice.

  15. Transportation System Risk Assessment on DOE Defense Program shipments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brumburgh, G.P.; Kimura, C.Y.; Alesso, H.P.; Prassinos, P.G.

    1992-01-01

    Substantial effort has been expended concerning the level of safety provided to persons, property, and the environment from the hazards associated with transporting radioactive material. This work provided an impetus for the Department of Energy to investigate the use of probabilistic risk assessment techniques to supplement the deterministic approach to transportation safety. The DOE recently decided to incorporate the methodologies associated with PRAs in the process for authorizing the transportation of nuclear components, special assemblies, and radioactive materials affiliated with the DOE Defense Program. Accordingly, the LLNL, sponsored by the DOE/AL, is tasked with developing a safety guide series to provide guidance to preparers performing a transportation system risk assessment

  16. GLObal RIsk MANagement system for plant operations GLORIMAN

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silverman, Eugene B.

    2004-01-01

    Considerable effort has been expended by nuclear power plants in the preparation of their Independent Plant Evaluation (IPE) programs. The result of these projects is the generation of very useful information concerning plant operations, states, availability and risk. The potential application of this information is often unrealized due to the unwieldy form of the data as reported in the IPE. Plant personnel would benefit greatly from quick access to risk information as a means of supporting day-to-day decisions, but the information exists only in a difficult to understand and inaccessible form. There is a need to translate the costs invested in Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) projects into a useable tool for plant personnel. This paper describes a software tool developed by ARD Corporation to be used by plants to assist in determining the operational risks and benefits associated with modifying the plant state during normal and off-normal operations for performing maintenance. This tool integrates a relational database with an easy-to-use graphical user interface and several unique software features. The result is a responsive, easy-to-understand tool that integrates an organization's PRA/IPE into the operational and maintenance needs of the station. The Global Risk Management System is designed to allow the user to evaluate the risk associated with current and proposed plant states. The impact of changes in plant configuration, operational modes and equipment availability are assessed from a risk management perspective, but displayed in an easy-to-understand form for personnel not familiar with risk methodology. Additionally, pipe and instrumentation drawings can be retrieved by the user and displayed as a reference tool. (author)

  17. Adaptive and Rational Anticipations in Risk Management Systems and Economy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubois, Daniel M.; Holmberg, Stig C.

    2010-11-01

    The global financial crisis of year 2009 is explained as a result of uncoordinated risk management decisions in business firms and economic organisations. The underlying reason for this can be found in the current financial system. As the financial market has lost much of its direct coupling to the concrete economy it provides misleading information to economic decision makers at all levels. Hence, the financial system has moved from a state of moderate and slow cyclical fluctuations into a state of fast and chaotic ones. Those misleading decisions can further be described, but not explained, by help of adaptive and rational expectations from macroeconomic theory. In this context, AE, the Adaptive Expectations are related to weak passive Exo-anticipation, and RE, the Rational expectations can be related to a strong, active and design oriented anticipation. The shortcomings of conventional cures, which builds on a reactive paradigm, have already been demonstrated in economic literature and are here further underlined by help of Ashby's "Law of Requisite Variety", Weaver's distinction between systems of "Disorganized Complexity" and those of "Organized Complexity", and Klir's "Reconstructability Analysis". Anticipatory decision-making is hence here proposed as a replacement to current expectation based and passive risk management. An anticipatory model of the business cycle is presented for supporting that proposition. The model, which is an extension of the Kaldor-Kalecki model, includes both retardation and anticipation. While cybernetics with the feedback process in control system deals with an explicit goal or purpose given to a system, the anticipatory system discussed here deals with a behaviour for which the future state of the system is built by the system itself, without explicit goal. A system with weak anticipation is based on a predictive model of the system, while a system with strong anticipation builds its own future by itself. Numerical simulations on

  18. Sensing risk, fearing uncertainty: systems science approach to change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janecka, Ivo P

    2014-01-01

    Medicine devotes its primary focus to understanding change, from cells to network relationships; observations of non-linearity are inescapable. Recent events provide extraordinary examples of major non-linear surprises within the societal system: human genome-from anticipated 100,000+ genes to only 20,000+; junk DNA-initially ignored but now proven to control genetic processes; economic reversals-bursting of bubbles in technology, housing, finance; foreign wars; relentless rise in obesity, neurodegenerative diseases. There are two attributes of systems science that are especially relevant to this research: One-it offers a method for creating a structural context with a guiding path to pragmatic knowledge; and, two-it gives pre-eminence to sensory input capable to register, evaluate, and react to change. Public domain records of change, during the last 50 years, have been studied in the context of systems science, the dynamic systems model, and various cycles. Change is dynamic, ever-present, never isolated, and of variable impact; it reflects innumerable relationships among contextual systems; change can be perceived as risk or uncertainty depending upon how the assessment is made; risk is quantifiable by sensory input and generates a degree of rational optimism; uncertainty is not quantifiable and evokes fear; trust is key to sharing risk; the measurable financial credit can be a proxy for societal trust; expanding credit dilutes trust; when a credit bubble bursts, so will trust; absence of trust paralyzes systems' relationships leading to disorganized complexity which prevents value creation and heightens the probability of random events; disappearance of value, accompanied by chaos, threatens all systems. From personal health to economic sustainability and collective rationality, most examined components of the societal system were found not to be optimized and trust was not in evidence.

  19. A systems approach to risk management through leading safety indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leveson, Nancy

    2015-01-01

    The goal of leading indicators for safety is to identify the potential for an accident before it occurs. Past efforts have focused on identifying general leading indicators, such as maintenance backlog, that apply widely in an industry or even across industries. Other recommendations produce more system-specific leading indicators, but start from system hazard analysis and thus are limited by the causes considered by the traditional hazard analysis techniques. Most rely on quantitative metrics, often based on probabilistic risk assessments. This paper describes a new and different approach to identifying system-specific leading indicators and provides guidance in designing a risk management structure to generate, monitor and use the results. The approach is based on the STAMP (System-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes) model of accident causation and tools that have been designed to build on that model. STAMP extends current accident causality to include more complex causes than simply component failures and chains of failure events or deviations from operational expectations. It incorporates basic principles of systems thinking and is based on systems theory rather than traditional reliability theory. - Highlights: • Much effort has gone into developing leading indicators with only limited success. • A systems-theoretic, assumption-based approach may be more successful. • Leading indicators are warning signals of an assumption’s changing vulnerability. • Heuristic biases can be controlled by using plausibility rather than likelihood

  20. Addressing Human System Risks to Future Space Exploration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paloski, W. H.; Francisco, D. R.; Davis, J. R.

    2015-01-01

    NASA is contemplating future human exploration missions to destinations beyond low Earth orbit, including the Moon, deep-space asteroids, and Mars. While we have learned much about protecting crew health and performance during orbital space flight over the past half-century, the challenges of these future missions far exceed those within our current experience base. To ensure success in these missions, we have developed a Human System Risk Board (HSRB) to identify, quantify, and develop mitigation plans for the extraordinary risks associated with each potential mission scenario. The HSRB comprises research, technology, and operations experts in medicine, physiology, psychology, human factors, radiation, toxicology, microbiology, pharmacology, and food sciences. Methods: Owing to the wide range of potential mission characteristics, we first identified the hazards to human health and performance common to all exploration missions: altered gravity, isolation/confinement, increased radiation, distance from Earth, and hostile/closed environment. Each hazard leads to a set of risks to crew health and/or performance. For example the radiation hazard leads to risks of acute radiation syndrome, central nervous system dysfunction, soft tissue degeneration, and carcinogenesis. Some of these risks (e.g., acute radiation syndrome) could affect crew health or performance during the mission, while others (e.g., carcinogenesis) would more likely affect the crewmember well after the mission ends. We next defined a set of design reference missions (DRM) that would span the range of exploration missions currently under consideration. In addition to standard (6-month) and long-duration (1-year) missions in low Earth orbit (LEO), these DRM include deep space sortie missions of 1 month duration, lunar orbital and landing missions of 1 year duration, deep space journey and asteroid landing missions of 1 year duration, and Mars orbital and landing missions of 3 years duration. We then

  1. A Real-Time Offshore Weather Risk Advisory System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jolivet, Samuel; Zemskyy, Pavlo; Mynampati, Kalyan; Babovic, Vladan

    2015-04-01

    Offshore oil and gas operations in South East Asia periodically face extended downtime due to unpredictable weather conditions, including squalls that are accompanied by strong winds, thunder, and heavy rains. This downtime results in financial losses. Hence, a real time weather risk advisory system is developed to provide the offshore Oil and Gas (O&G) industry specific weather warnings in support of safety and environment security. This system provides safe operating windows based on sensitivity of offshore operations to sea state. Information products for safety and security include area of squall occurrence for the next 24 hours, time before squall strike, and heavy sea state warning for the next 3, 6, 12 & 24 hours. These are predicted using radar now-cast, high resolution Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and Data Assimilation (DA). Radar based now-casting leverages the radar data to produce short term (up to 3 hours) predictions of severe weather events including squalls/thunderstorms. A sea state approximation is provided through developing a translational model based on these predictions to risk rank the sensitivity of operations. A high resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF, an open source NWP model) is developed for offshore Brunei, Malaysia and the Philippines. This high resolution model is optimized and validated against the adaptation of temperate to tropical met-ocean parameterization. This locally specific parameters are calibrated against federated data to achieve a 24 hour forecast of high resolution Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE). CAPE is being used as a proxy for the risk of squall occurrence. Spectral decomposition is used to blend the outputs of the now-cast and the forecast in order to assimilate near real time weather observations as an implementation of the integration of data sources. This system uses the now-cast for the first 3 hours and then the forecast prediction horizons of 3, 6, 12 & 24 hours. The output is

  2. Risk Informed Structural Systems Integrity Management: A Decision Analytical Perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Michael Havbro Faber

    2017-01-01

    The present paper is predominantly a conceptual contribution with an appraisal of major developments in risk informed structural integrity management for offshore installations together with a discussion of their merits and the challenges which still lie ahead. Starting point is taken in a selected...... overview of research and development contributions which have formed the basis for Risk Based Inspection Planning (RBI) as we know it today. Thereafter an outline of the methodical basis for risk informed structural systems integrity management, i.e. the Bayesian decision analysis is provided in summary...... Management (SIM). Finally, the concept of Value of Information analysis (VoI) from the Bayesian pre-posterior decision analysis is proposed, as an overarching methodical platform for the planning and optimization of structural Health Monitoring (SHM) activities in the context of SIM at both operational...

  3. Exercise protects the cardiovascular system: effects beyond traditional risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joyner, Michael J; Green, Daniel J

    2009-12-01

    In humans, exercise training and moderate to high levels of physical activity are protective against cardiovascular disease. In fact they are 40% more protective than predicted based on the changes in traditional risk factors (blood lipids, hypertension, diabetes etc.) that they cause. In this review, we highlight the positive effects of exercise on endothelial function and the autonomic nervous system. We also ask if these effects alone, or in combination, might explain the protective effects of exercise against cardiovascular disease that appear to be independent of traditional risk factor modification. Our goal is to use selected data from our own work and that of others to stimulate debate on the nature and cause of the 'risk factor gap' associated with exercise and physical activity.

  4. Cigarette smoking, alcohol consumption and risk of systemic lupus erythematosus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takvorian, S U; Merola, J F; Costenbader, K H

    2014-05-01

    Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is a complex multisystem autoimmune disease whose pathogenesis is thought to involve both genetic and environmental factors. It is possible that common environmental exposures, such as cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption, might modify risk of disease development in certain individuals. Here we aim to review the epidemiologic evidence related to the association of cigarette smoking, alcohol consumption and the risk of developing SLE. A growing body of evidence suggests that cigarette smoking confers a short-term increased risk of SLE in genetically susceptible individuals. On the other hand, alcohol consumption in moderate doses may have a protective effect against the development of SLE, although this is still debated. We also have reviewed proposed mechanistic explanations underlying the role of cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption in SLE pathogenesis.

  5. An experimental study of the Online Information Paradox: Does en-route information improve road network performance?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wijayaratna, Kasun P; Dixit, Vinayak V; Denant-Boemont, Laurent; Waller, S Travis

    2017-01-01

    This study investigates the empirical presence of a theoretical transportation paradox, defined as the "Online Information Paradox" (OIP). The paradox suggests that, for certain road networks, the provision of online information deteriorate travel conditions for all users of that network relative to the situation where no online information is provided to users. The analytical presence of the paradox was derived for a specific network structure by using two equilibrium models, the first being the Expected User Equilibrium (EUE) solution (no information scenario) and the other being the User Equilibrium with Recourse (UER) solution (with information scenario). An incentivised computerised route choice game was designed using the concepts of experimental economics and administered in a controlled laboratory environment to investigate the physical presence of the paradox. Aggregate statistics of path flows and Total System Travel Costs (TSTC) were used to compare the experimental results with the theoretical findings. A total of 12 groups of 12 participants completed the experiment and the OIP and the occurrence of the OIP being significant was observed in 11 of the 12 cases. Though information increased travel costs for users on average, it reduced the volatility of travel costs experienced in the no information scenario indicating that information can achieve a more reliable system. Further replications of similar experiments and more importantly field based identification of the phenomena will force transport professionals to be aware of the emergence of the paradox. In addition, studies such as this emphasise the need for the adoption of adaptive traffic assignment techniques to appropriately model the acquisition of information on a road network.

  6. An experimental study of the Online Information Paradox: Does en-route information improve road network performance?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kasun P Wijayaratna

    Full Text Available This study investigates the empirical presence of a theoretical transportation paradox, defined as the "Online Information Paradox" (OIP. The paradox suggests that, for certain road networks, the provision of online information deteriorate travel conditions for all users of that network relative to the situation where no online information is provided to users. The analytical presence of the paradox was derived for a specific network structure by using two equilibrium models, the first being the Expected User Equilibrium (EUE solution (no information scenario and the other being the User Equilibrium with Recourse (UER solution (with information scenario. An incentivised computerised route choice game was designed using the concepts of experimental economics and administered in a controlled laboratory environment to investigate the physical presence of the paradox. Aggregate statistics of path flows and Total System Travel Costs (TSTC were used to compare the experimental results with the theoretical findings. A total of 12 groups of 12 participants completed the experiment and the OIP and the occurrence of the OIP being significant was observed in 11 of the 12 cases. Though information increased travel costs for users on average, it reduced the volatility of travel costs experienced in the no information scenario indicating that information can achieve a more reliable system. Further replications of similar experiments and more importantly field based identification of the phenomena will force transport professionals to be aware of the emergence of the paradox. In addition, studies such as this emphasise the need for the adoption of adaptive traffic assignment techniques to appropriately model the acquisition of information on a road network.

  7. Risk Modeling of Interdependent Complex Systems of Systems: Theory and Practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haimes, Yacov Y

    2018-01-01

    The emergence of the complexity characterizing our systems of systems (SoS) requires a reevaluation of the way we model, assess, manage, communicate, and analyze the risk thereto. Current models for risk analysis of emergent complex SoS are insufficient because too often they rely on the same risk functions and models used for single systems. These models commonly fail to incorporate the complexity derived from the networks of interdependencies and interconnectedness (I-I) characterizing SoS. There is a need to reevaluate currently practiced risk analysis to respond to this reality by examining, and thus comprehending, what makes emergent SoS complex. The key to evaluating the risk to SoS lies in understanding the genesis of characterizing I-I of systems manifested through shared states and other essential entities within and among the systems that constitute SoS. The term "essential entities" includes shared decisions, resources, functions, policies, decisionmakers, stakeholders, organizational setups, and others. This undertaking can be accomplished by building on state-space theory, which is fundamental to systems engineering and process control. This article presents a theoretical and analytical framework for modeling the risk to SoS with two case studies performed with the MITRE Corporation and demonstrates the pivotal contributions made by shared states and other essential entities to modeling and analysis of the risk to complex SoS. A third case study highlights the multifarious representations of SoS, which require harmonizing the risk analysis process currently applied to single systems when applied to complex SoS. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. Incidence and risk of heart failure in systemic lupus erythematosus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Chang H; Al-Kindi, Sadeer G; Jandali, Bochra; Askari, Ali D; Zacharias, Michael; Oliveira, Guilherme H

    2017-02-01

    Although case series suggest a higher burden of cardiovascular risk factors in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) compared with the general population, the association between SLE and heart failure (HF) remains undefined. We sought to investigate the incidence and risk of HF in patients with SLE. In April 2016, we performed a retrospective cohort analysis using the Explorys platform, which provides aggregated electronic medical record data from 26 major integrated healthcare systems across the USA from 1999 to present. Demographic and regression analyses were performed to assess the impact of SLE on HF incidence. Among 45 284 540 individuals in the database, we identified 95 400 (0.21%) with SLE and 98 900 (0.22%) with a new diagnosis of HF between May 2015 and April 2016. HF incidence was markedly higher in the SLE group compared with controls (0.97% vs 0.22%, relative risk (RR): 4.6 (95% CI 4.3 to 4.9)), as were other cardiovascular risk factors. In regression analysis, SLE was an independent predictor of HF (adjusted OR: 3.17 (2.63 to 3.83), prisk but decreasing RR with advancing age in both sexes. Renal involvement in SLE correlated with earlier and higher incidence of HF. The findings of this study suggest that patients with SLE have significantly higher risk of developing HF and a worse cardiovascular risk profile compared with the general population. These results need to be confirmed by prospective studies. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  9. Sensing risk, fearing uncertainty: Systems science approach to change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivo P Janecka

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundMedicine devotes its primary focus to understanding change, from cells to network relationships; observations of non-linearity are inescapable. Recent events provide extraordinary examples of major non-linear surprises within the societal system: human genome-from anticipated 100,000+ genes to only 20,000+; junk DNA-initially ignored but now proven to control genetic processes; economic reversals-bursting of bubbles in technology, housing, finance; foreign wars; relentless rise in obesity, neurodegenerative diseases.There are two attributes of systems science that are especially relevant to this research: One- it offers a method for creating a structural context with a guiding path to pragmatic knowledge; and, two- it gives pre-eminence to sensory input capable to register, evaluate, and react to change. Material / MethodPublic domain records of change, during the last fifty years, have been studied in the context of systems science, the dynamic systems model, and various cycles. Results / Conclusions Change is dynamic, ever-present, never isolated, and of variable impact; it reflects innumerable relationships among contextual systems; change can be perceived as risk or uncertainty depending upon how the assessment is made; risk is quantifiable by sensory input and generates a degree of rational optimism; uncertainty is not quantifiable and evokes fear; trust is key to sharing risk; the measurable financial credit can be a proxy for societal trust; expanding credit dilutes trust; when a credit bubble bursts, so will trust; absence of trust paralyzes systems’ relationships leading to disorganized complexity which prevents value creation and heightens the probability of random events; disappearance of value, accompanied by chaos, threatens all systems.From personal health to economic sustainability and collective rationality, most examined components of the societal system were found not to be optimized and trust was not in evidence.

  10. Recent Insights into the Paradoxical Effect of Echinocandins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagener, Johannes; Loiko, Veronika

    2017-12-28

    Echinocandin antifungals represent one of the most important drug classes for the treatment of invasive fungal infections. The mode of action of the echinocandins relies on inhibition of the β-1,3-glucan synthase, an enzyme essentially required for the synthesis of the major fungal cell wall carbohydrate β-1,3-glucan. Depending on the species, echinocandins may exert fungicidal or fungistatic activity. Apparently independent of this differential activity, a surprising in vitro phenomenon called the "paradoxical effect" can be observed. The paradoxical effect is characterized by the ability of certain fungal isolates to reconstitute growth in the presence of higher echinocandin concentrations, while being fully susceptible at lower concentrations. The nature of the paradoxical effect is not fully understood and has been the focus of multiple studies in the last two decades. Here we concisely review the current literature and propose an updated model for the paradoxical effect, taking into account recent advances in the field.

  11. Paradoxical perception of surfaces in the Shepard tabletop illusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tyler, Christopher W

    2011-01-01

    The Shepard tabletop illusion, consisting of different perspective embeddings of two identical parallelograms as tabletops, affords a profound difference in their perceived surface shapes. My analysis reveals three further paradoxical aspects of this illusion, in addition to its susceptibility to the ‘inverse perspective illusion’ of the implied orthographic perspective of the table images. These novel aspects of the illusion are: a paradoxical slant of the tabletops, a paradoxical lack of perceived depth, and a paradoxical distortion of the length of the rear legs. The construction of the illusion resembles scenes found in ancient Chinese scroll paintings, and an analysis of the source of the third effect shows that the interpretation in terms of surfaces can account for the difference in treatment of the filled-in versus open forms in the Chinese painting from more than 1000 years ago. PMID:23145230

  12. One-Piece Faraday Generator: A Paradoxical Experiment from 1851

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crooks, M. J.; And Others

    1978-01-01

    Describes an experiment based on Faraday's one-piece generator, where the rotating disk is replaced by a cylindrical permanent magnet. Explains the apparent paradox that an observer in an inertial frame could measure his absolute velocity. (GA)

  13. A review of unmanned aircraft system ground risk models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Washington, Achim; Clothier, Reece A.; Silva, Jose

    2017-11-01

    There is much effort being directed towards the development of safety regulations for unmanned aircraft systems (UAS). National airworthiness authorities have advocated the adoption of a risk-based approach, whereby regulations are driven by the outcomes of a systematic process to assess and manage identified safety risks. Subsequently, models characterising the primary hazards associated with UAS operations have now become critical to the development of regulations and in turn, to the future of the industry. Key to the development of airworthiness regulations for UAS is a comprehensive understanding of the risks UAS operations pose to people and property on the ground. A comprehensive review of the literature identified 33 different models (and component sub models) used to estimate ground risk posed by UAS. These models comprise failure, impact location, recovery, stress, exposure, incident stress and harm sub-models. The underlying assumptions and treatment of uncertainties in each of these sub-models differ significantly between models, which can have a significant impact on the development of regulations. This paper reviews the state-of-the-art in research into UAS ground risk modelling, discusses how the various sub-models relate to the different components of the regulation, and explores how model-uncertainties potentially impact the development of regulations for UAS.

  14. Reasonable Plurality and Moral Education. New Perspectives on Old Paradoxes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana María Salmerón Castro

    2000-05-01

    Full Text Available This article faces an old paradox of moral education: the apparently logical impossibility of choosing the transmission of agreed-upon values and the autonomous exercise of reason. The author takes an epistemological position in which human learning is considered the result of an interaction of individual developmental processes and the acquisition of knowledge. She assumes knowledge as a category subjected to criteria of truth, and this, as preceded by an agreement concerning values. She states that transmission of the community consensus is not only inevitable, but is essential to the development of the autonomous deliberative game and to the exercise of critical intelligence as well. However, she warns us against a possible danger: the mere transmission of accepted principles and values may place moral education under a heterogeneous direction of conduct. Educators should, by all means, avoid such a risk. She suggests seeking a reasonable plurality as a means of transmitting agreed-upon values. The notion of reasonable plurality derives from a feature assigned to John Rawls’ concept of “overlapping consensus”.

  15. Waiting list paradox: Danish cancer patients diagnosed fast have higher mortality after diagnosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tørring, Marie Louise; Frydenberg, Morten; Hansen, Rikke Pilegaard

    on hospital discharge diagnoses for the 2004-2005 period, extracted from population-based healthcare databases in the former County of Aarhus, Denmark, and subsequently validated in the National Danish Cancer Registry. All patients with a first-time diagnosis of colon, rectal, lung, skin, breast, or prostate...... with longer diagnostic interval until the reference point of 30 days. For colon, rectal, skin, and breast cancer mortality seemed to increase with diagnostic interval longer than 30 days. The waiting list paradox is manifest in Denmark. We speculate that medical professionals organise the diagnostic pathway......Studies often show that cancer patients diagnosed more rapidly have higher mortality rates than patients with longer waits in the primary and secondary health care sector. Our aim was to examine whether this paradox is manifest in the Danish health care system. The study was based on data...

  16. THE PARADOX OF POSITIVISTIC VIEW AND PROGRESSIVE LAW OF CRIMINAL LAW ENFORCEMENT IN INDONESIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krismiyarsi Krismiyarsi

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The paradox of positivistic view and progressive law in the criminal law enforcement happened because there is a difference among the law enforcement officer’s view and perception.  Our law education from the beginning until now still teaches the students the positivistic view so that after the students becoming law officers in running the law they still use positive law or positivistic view. The positivistic view is often far from the substantive justice and close to the formal justice. In order to functioning the progressive law in law enforcement especially the penal code constraint of positivistic view which rooted inside of the law enforcer’s mind, therefore it is need paradigm change by fixing the law system, law education, ethics and morality of law officers , and increasing religious consciousness.Keywords: paradox, law positivism, progressive law, criminal law enforcement

  17. Development of paradoxical inflammatory disorders during treatment of psoriasis with TNF inhibitors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Havmose, Martin; Thomsen, Simon Francis

    2017-01-01

    frequently. We aimed to identify published, peer-reviewed cases of paradoxical inflammatory, non-neoplastic, noninfectious adverse events in psoriasis patients during TNF inhibitor therapy. METHODS: A literature search in MEDLINE was performed for articles published from inception through the 8th of June......BACKGROUND: TNF inhibitors have proven to be effective and relatively safe in the management of psoriasis. While infections and certain malignancies are established as acknowledged side effects, paradoxical inflammatory, non-neoplastic, noninfectious adverse events are being recognized less...... 2016 that reported suspected incidents fulfilling a predefined search strategy. In addition, articles identified by reference lists were added. RESULTS: A total of 295 cases from various organ systems among 13 269 patients were identified: 91 cases were related to infliximab, 101 cases were related...

  18. Waiting list paradox: Danish cancer patients diagnosed fast have higher mortality after diagnosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tørring, Marie Louise

    patients. Mortality varied across cancer diagnosis. There were no associations between duration and mortality for breast and skin cancer. For lung, prostate, and colorectal cancer a short diagnostic interval (0-14 days) was associated with highest mortality. CONCLUSION: The waiting-time-paradox is manifest...... with longer wait in the primary and secondary health care sector. AIM: To examine whether the waiting time paradox is manifest in the Danish health care system. MATERIALS & METHODS: The study was based on data on hospital discharge diagnoses for the 2004-2005 period, extracted from population-based healthcare...... databases in the former County of Aarhus, Denmark. All patients with a first-time diagnosis of breast, skin, lung, prostate, and colorectal cancer were identified and confirmed by each patient’s General Practitioner (GP), who provided a detailed description of the diagnostic pathway. Diagnostic interval...

  19. Multicriteria Early Warning System of Enterprises against the Bankruptcy Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomasz Korol

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available This article is devoted to the issue of forecasting the bankruptcy risk of the enterprises. In the article author compares the effectiveness of multicriteria early warning system with the traditional discriminant analysis model of forecasting the risks of bankruptcy of companies. In the conducted research author has used data on 185 companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange Market. This population of firms was divided into learning and testing setdata. Each company has been analyzed using the absolute values of 14 financial ratios and the dynamics of change of these ratios. Additionally, author has used the macroeconomic variables in developed multicriteria system. The author’s developed models are characterized by high efficiency. These studies are the first attempt to use fuzzy logic to predict the bankruptcy of companies in Poland and one of the first in the world. Obtained results demonstrate the great potential of this method.  

  20. The klein paradox as a many particle problem

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bongaarts, P.J.M.; Ruijsenaars, S.N.M.

    1976-09-24

    A mathematically rigorous analysis of the Klein paradox is given in the many-particle formulation of the Dirac theory. This paradox was meant as an example demonstrating the negative energy problems of the single particle Dirac equation. However, it is shown that this problem does not disappear in the second quantized version of the Dirac theory. It corresponds with a situation which cannot be described properly within the framework of a field theory with an external potential. (AIP)