WorldWideScience

Sample records for systematic reconstruction uncertainties

  1. A 20 million year record of planktic foraminiferal B/Ca ratios: Systematics and uncertainties in pCO 2 reconstructions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tripati, Aradhna K.; Roberts, Christopher D.; Eagle, Robert A.; Li, Gaojun

    2011-05-01

    We use new and published data representing a 20 million long record to discuss the systematics of interpreting planktic foraminiferal B/Ca ratios. B/Ca-based reconstructions of seawater carbonate chemistry and atmospheric pCO 2 assume that the incorporation of boron into foraminiferal tests can be empirically described by an apparent partition coefficient, KD={B/Ca}/{B(OH4-/HCO)} ( Hemming and Hanson, 1992). It has also been proposed that there is a species-specific relationship between K D and temperature ( Yu et al., 2007). As we discuss, although these relationships may be robust, there remain significant uncertainties over the controls on boron incorporation into foraminifera. It is difficult to be certain that the empirically defined correlation between temperature and K D is not simply a result of covariance of temperature and other hydrographic variables in the ocean, including carbonate system parameters. There is also some evidence that K D may be affected by solution [HCO3-]/[CO32-] ratios (i.e., pH), or by [CO32-]. In addition, the theoretical basis for the definition of K D and for a temperature control on K D is of debate. We also discuss the sensitivity of pCO 2 reconstructions to different K D-temperature calibrations and seawater B/Ca. If a K D-temperature calibration is estimated using ice core pCO 2 values between 0 and 200 ka, B/Ca ratios can be used to reasonably approximate atmospheric pCO 2 between 200 and 800 ka; however, the absolute values of pCO 2 calculated are sensitive to the choice of K D-temperature relationship. For older time periods, the absolute values of pCO 2 are also dependent on the evolution of seawater B concentrations. However, we find that over the last 20 Ma, reconstructed changes in declining pCO 2 across the Mid-Pleistocene Transition, Pliocene glacial intensification, and the Middle Miocene Climate Transition are supported by the B/Ca record even if a constant coretop K D is used, or different K D

  2. Planck 2013 results. III. LFI systematic uncertainties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aghanim, N.; Armitage-Caplan, C.; Arnaud, M.

    2013-01-01

    power spectra.We also present an overall budget of known systematic effect uncertainties, which are dominated by sidelobe straylight pick-upand imperfect calibration. However, even these two effects are at least two orders of magnitude weaker than the cosmic microwave backgroundfluctuations as measured...

  3. Planck 2015 results: III. LFI systematic uncertainties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ade, P. A R; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.

    2016-01-01

    We present the current accounting of systematic effect uncertainties for the Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) that are relevant to the 2015 release of the Planck cosmological results, showing the robustness and consistency of our data set, especially for polarization analysis. We use two complement...

  4. Planck 2013 results. III. LFI systematic uncertainties

    CERN Document Server

    Aghanim, N; Arnaud, M; Ashdown, M; Atrio-Barandela, F; Aumont, J; Baccigalupi, C; Banday, A J; Barreiro, R B; Battaner, E; Benabed, K; Benoît, A; Benoit-Lévy, A; Bernard, J -P; Bersanelli, M; Bielewicz, P; Bobin, J; Bock, J J; Bonaldi, A; Bonavera, L; Bond, J R; Borrill, J; Bouchet, F R; Bridges, M; Bucher, M; Burigana, C; Butler, R C; Cardoso, J -F; Catalano, A; Chamballu, A; Chiang, L -Y; Christensen, P R; Church, S; Colombi, S; Colombo, L P L; Crill, B P; Cruz, M; Curto, A; Cuttaia, F; Danese, L; Davies, R D; Davis, R J; de Bernardis, P; de Rosa, A; de Zotti, G; Delabrouille, J; Dick, J; Dickinson, C; Diego, J M; Dole, H; Donzelli, S; Doré, O; Douspis, M; Dupac, X; Efstathiou, G; Enßlin, T A; Eriksen, H K; Finelli, F; Forni, O; Frailis, M; Franceschi, E; Gaier, T C; Galeotta, S; Ganga, K; Giard, M; Giraud-Héraud, Y; Gjerløw, E; González-Nuevo, J; Górski, K M; Gratton, S; Gregorio, A; Gruppuso, A; Hansen, F K; Hanson, D; Harrison, D; Henrot-Versillé, S; Hernández-Monteagudo, C; Herranz, D; Hildebrandt, S R; Hivon, E; Hobson, M; Holmes, W A; Hornstrup, A; Hovest, W; Huffenberger, K M; Jaffe, T R; Jaffe, A H; Jewell, J; Jones, W C; Juvela, M; Kangaslahti, P; Keihänen, E; Keskitalo, R; Kiiveri, K; Kisner, T S; Knoche, J; Knox, L; Kunz, M; Kurki-Suonio, H; Lagache, G; Lähteenmäki, A; Lamarre, J -M; Lasenby, A; Laureijs, R J; Lawrence, C R; Leahy, J P; Leonardi, R; Lesgourgues, J; Liguori, M; Lilje, P B; Lindholm, V; Linden-Vørnle, M; López-Caniego, M; Lubin, P M; Macías-Pérez, J F; Maino, D; Mandolesi, N; Maris, M; Marshall, D J; Martin, P G; Martínez-González, E; Masi, S; Matarrese, S; Matthai, F; Mazzotta, P; Meinhold, P R; Melchiorri, A; Mendes, L; Mennella, A; Migliaccio, M; Mitra, S; Moneti, A; Montier, L; Morgante, G; Mortlock, D; Moss, A; Munshi, D; Naselsky, P; Natoli, P; Netterfield, C B; Nørgaard-Nielsen, H U; Novikov, D; Novikov, I; O'Dwyer, I J; Osborne, S; Paci, F; Pagano, L; Paladini, R; Paoletti, D; Partridge, B; Pasian, F; Patanchon, G; Pearson, D; Peel, M; Perdereau, O; Perotto, L; Perrotta, F; Pierpaoli, E; Pietrobon, D; Plaszczynski, S; Platania, P; Pointecouteau, E; Polenta, G; Ponthieu, N; Popa, L; Poutanen, T; Pratt, G W; Prézeau, G; Prunet, S; Puget, J -L; Rachen, J P; Rebolo, R; Reinecke, M; Remazeilles, M; Ricciardi, S; Riller, T; Rocha, G; Rosset, C; Rossetti, M; Roudier, G; Rubiño-Martín, J A; Rusholme, B; Sandri, M; Santos, D; Scott, D; Seiffert, M D; Shellard, E P S; Spencer, L D; Starck, J -L; Stolyarov, V; Stompor, R; Sureau, F; Sutton, D; Suur-Uski, A -S; Sygnet, J -F; Tauber, J A; Tavagnacco, D; Terenzi, L; Toffolatti, L; Tomasi, M; Tristram, M; Tucci, M; Tuovinen, J; Türler, M; Umana, G; Valenziano, L; Valiviita, J; Van Tent, B; Varis, J; Vielva, P; Villa, F; Vittorio, N; Wade, L A; Wandelt, B D; Watson, R; Wilkinson, A; Yvon, D; Zacchei, A; Zonca, A

    2014-01-01

    We present the current estimate of instrumental and systematic effect uncertainties for the Planck-Low Frequency Instrument relevant to the first release of the Planck cosmological results. We give an overview of the main effects and of the tools and methods applied to assess residuals in maps and power spectra. We also present an overall budget of known systematic effect uncertainties, which are dominated sidelobe straylight pick-up and imperfect calibration. However, even these two effects are at least two orders of magnitude weaker than the cosmic microwave background (CMB) fluctuations as measured in terms of the angular temperature power spectrum. A residual signal above the noise level is present in the multipole range $\\ell<20$, most notably at 30 GHz, and is likely caused by residual Galactic straylight contamination. Current analysis aims to further reduce the level of spurious signals in the data and to improve the systematic effects modelling, in particular with respect to straylight and calibra...

  5. Systematic uncertainties in direct reaction theories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lovell, A E; Nunes, F M

    2015-01-01

    Nuclear reactions are common probes to study nuclei and in particular, nuclei at the limits of stability. The data from reaction measurements depend strongly on theory for a reliable interpretation. Even when using state-of-the-art reaction theories, there are a number of sources of systematic uncertainties. These uncertainties are often unquantified or estimated in a very crude manner. It is clear that for theory to be useful, a quantitative understanding of the uncertainties is critical. Here, we discuss major sources of uncertainties in a variety of reaction theories used to analyze (d,p) nuclear reactions in the energy range E d = 10–20 MeV, and we provide a critical view on how these have been handled in the past and how estimates can be improved. (paper)

  6. Robustness of ancestral sequence reconstruction to phylogenetic uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson-Smith, Victor; Kolaczkowski, Bryan; Thornton, Joseph W

    2010-09-01

    Ancestral sequence reconstruction (ASR) is widely used to formulate and test hypotheses about the sequences, functions, and structures of ancient genes. Ancestral sequences are usually inferred from an alignment of extant sequences using a maximum likelihood (ML) phylogenetic algorithm, which calculates the most likely ancestral sequence assuming a probabilistic model of sequence evolution and a specific phylogeny--typically the tree with the ML. The true phylogeny is seldom known with certainty, however. ML methods ignore this uncertainty, whereas Bayesian methods incorporate it by integrating the likelihood of each ancestral state over a distribution of possible trees. It is not known whether Bayesian approaches to phylogenetic uncertainty improve the accuracy of inferred ancestral sequences. Here, we use simulation-based experiments under both simplified and empirically derived conditions to compare the accuracy of ASR carried out using ML and Bayesian approaches. We show that incorporating phylogenetic uncertainty by integrating over topologies very rarely changes the inferred ancestral state and does not improve the accuracy of the reconstructed ancestral sequence. Ancestral state reconstructions are robust to uncertainty about the underlying tree because the conditions that produce phylogenetic uncertainty also make the ancestral state identical across plausible trees; conversely, the conditions under which different phylogenies yield different inferred ancestral states produce little or no ambiguity about the true phylogeny. Our results suggest that ML can produce accurate ASRs, even in the face of phylogenetic uncertainty. Using Bayesian integration to incorporate this uncertainty is neither necessary nor beneficial.

  7. Interval-based reconstruction for uncertainty quantification in PET

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kucharczak, Florentin; Loquin, Kevin; Buvat, Irène; Strauss, Olivier; Mariano-Goulart, Denis

    2018-02-01

    A new directed interval-based tomographic reconstruction algorithm, called non-additive interval based expectation maximization (NIBEM) is presented. It uses non-additive modeling of the forward operator that provides intervals instead of single-valued projections. The detailed approach is an extension of the maximum likelihood—expectation maximization algorithm based on intervals. The main motivation for this extension is that the resulting intervals have appealing properties for estimating the statistical uncertainty associated with the reconstructed activity values. After reviewing previously published theoretical concepts related to interval-based projectors, this paper describes the NIBEM algorithm and gives examples that highlight the properties and advantages of this interval valued reconstruction.

  8. Complex Empiricism and the Quantification of Uncertainty in Paleoclimate Reconstructions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brumble, K. C.

    2014-12-01

    Because the global climate cannot be observed directly, and because of vast and noisy data sets, climate science is a rich field to study how computational statistics informs what it means to do empirical science. Traditionally held virtues of empirical science and empirical methods like reproducibility, independence, and straightforward observation are complicated by representational choices involved in statistical modeling and data handling. Examining how climate reconstructions instantiate complicated empirical relationships between model, data, and predictions reveals that the path from data to prediction does not match traditional conceptions of empirical inference either. Rather, the empirical inferences involved are "complex" in that they require articulation of a good deal of statistical processing wherein assumptions are adopted and representational decisions made, often in the face of substantial uncertainties. Proxy reconstructions are both statistical and paleoclimate science activities aimed at using a variety of proxies to reconstruct past climate behavior. Paleoclimate proxy reconstructions also involve complex data handling and statistical refinement, leading to the current emphasis in the field on the quantification of uncertainty in reconstructions. In this presentation I explore how the processing needed for the correlation of diverse, large, and messy data sets necessitate the explicit quantification of the uncertainties stemming from wrangling proxies into manageable suites. I also address how semi-empirical pseudo-proxy methods allow for the exploration of signal detection in data sets, and as intermediary steps for statistical experimentation.

  9. Errors and Uncertainties in Dose Reconstruction for Radiation Effects Research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Strom, Daniel J.

    2008-04-14

    Dose reconstruction for studies of the health effects of ionizing radiation have been carried out for many decades. Major studies have included Japanese bomb survivors, atomic veterans, downwinders of the Nevada Test Site and Hanford, underground uranium miners, and populations of nuclear workers. For such studies to be credible, significant effort must be put into applying the best science to reconstructing unbiased absorbed doses to tissues and organs as a function of time. In many cases, more and more sophisticated dose reconstruction methods have been developed as studies progressed. For the example of the Japanese bomb survivors, the dose surrogate “distance from the hypocenter” was replaced by slant range, and then by TD65 doses, DS86 doses, and more recently DS02 doses. Over the years, it has become increasingly clear that an equal level of effort must be expended on the quantitative assessment of uncertainty in such doses, and to reducing and managing uncertainty. In this context, this paper reviews difficulties in terminology, explores the nature of Berkson and classical uncertainties in dose reconstruction through examples, and proposes a path forward for Joint Coordinating Committee for Radiation Effects Research (JCCRER) Project 2.4 that requires a reasonably small level of effort for DOSES-2008.

  10. Incorporation of systematic uncertainties in statistical decision rules

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wichers, V.A.

    1994-02-01

    The influence of systematic uncertainties on statistical hypothesis testing is an underexposed subject. Systematic uncertainties cannot be incorporated in hypothesis tests, but they deteriorate the performance of these tests. A wrong treatment of systematic uncertainties in verification applications in safeguards leads to false assessment of the strength of the safeguards measure, and thus undermines the safeguards system. The effects of systematic uncertainties on decision errors in hypothesis testing are analyzed quantitatively for an example from the safeguards practice. (LEU-HEU verification of UF 6 enrichment in centrifuge enrichment plants). It is found that the only proper way to tackle systematic uncertainties is reduction to sufficiently low levels; criteria for these are proposed. Although conclusions were obtained from study of a single practical application, it is believed that they hold generally: for all sources of systematic uncertainties, all statistical decision rules, and all applications. (orig./HP)

  11. Hadronization systematics and top mass reconstruction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Corcella Gennaro

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available I discuss a few issues related to the systematic error on the top mass mea- surement at hadron colliders, due to hadronization effects. Special care is taken about the impact of bottom-quark fragmentation in top decays, especially on the reconstruction relying on final states with leptons and J/Ψ in the dilepton channel. I also debate the relation between the measured mass and its theoretical definition, and report on work in progress, based on the Monte Carlo simulation of fictitious top-flavoured hadrons, which may shed light on this issue and on the hadronization systematics.

  12. On Bayesian treatment of systematic uncertainties in confidence interval calculation

    CERN Document Server

    Tegenfeldt, Fredrik

    2005-01-01

    In high energy physics, a widely used method to treat systematic uncertainties in confidence interval calculations is based on combining a frequentist construction of confidence belts with a Bayesian treatment of systematic uncertainties. In this note we present a study of the coverage of this method for the standard Likelihood Ratio (aka Feldman & Cousins) construction for a Poisson process with known background and Gaussian or log-Normal distributed uncertainties in the background or signal efficiency. For uncertainties in the signal efficiency of upto 40 % we find over-coverage on the level of 2 to 4 % depending on the size of uncertainties and the region in signal space. Uncertainties in the background generally have smaller effect on the coverage. A considerable smoothing of the coverage curves is observed. A software package is presented which allows fast calculation of the confidence intervals for a variety of assumptions on shape and size of systematic uncertainties for different nuisance paramete...

  13. Systematic Analysis Of Ocean Colour Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavender, Samantha

    2013-12-01

    This paper reviews current research into the estimation of uncertainties as a pixel-based measure to aid non- specialist users of remote sensing products. An example MERIS image, captured on the 28 March 2012, was processed with above-water atmospheric correction code. This was initially based on both the Antoine & Morel Standard Atmospheric Correction, with Bright Pixel correction component, and Doerffer Neural Network coastal water's approach. It's showed that analysis of the atmospheric by-products yield important information about the separation of the atmospheric and in-water signals, helping to sign-post possible uncertainties in the atmospheric correction results. Further analysis has concentrated on implementing a ‘simplistic' atmospheric correction so that the impact of changing the input auxiliary data can be analysed; the influence of changing surface pressure is demonstrated. Future work will focus on automating the analysis, so that the methodology can be implemented within an operational system.

  14. Systematic Evaluation of Uncertainty in Material Flow Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laner, David; Rechberger, Helmut; Astrup, Thomas Fruergaard

    2014-01-01

    Material flow analysis (MFA) is a tool to investigate material flows and stocks in defined systems as a basis for resource management or environmental pollution control. Because of the diverse nature of sources and the varying quality and availability of data, MFA results are inherently uncertain....... Uncertainty analyses have received increasing attention in recent MFA studies, but systematic approaches for selection of appropriate uncertainty tools are missing. This article reviews existing literature related to handling of uncertainty in MFA studies and evaluates current practice of uncertainty analysis......) and exploratory MFA (identification of critical parameters and system behavior). Whereas mathematically simpler concepts focusing on data uncertainty characterization are appropriate for descriptive MFAs, statistical approaches enabling more-rigorous evaluation of uncertainty and model sensitivity are needed...

  15. Systematic uncertainties on Monte Carlo simulation of lead based ADS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Embid, M.; Fernandez, R.; Garcia-Sanz, J.M.; Gonzalez, E.

    1999-01-01

    Computer simulations of the neutronic behaviour of ADS systems foreseen for actinide and fission product transmutation are affected by many sources of systematic uncertainties, both from the nuclear data and by the methodology selected when applying the codes. Several actual ADS Monte Carlo simulations are presented, comparing different options both for the data and for the methodology, evaluating the relevance of the different uncertainties. (author)

  16. Tritium source-related systematic uncertainties of the KATRIN experiment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seitz-Moskaliuk, Hendrik [Karlsruher Institut fuer Technologie, Institut fuer experimentelle Kernphysik, Hermann-von-Helmholtz-Platz 1, 76344 Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen (Germany); Collaboration: KATRIN-Collaboration

    2016-07-01

    KATRIN will perform a direct, kinematics-based measurement of the neutrino mass with a sensitivity of 200 meV (90 % C. L.) reached after 3 years of measurement time. The neutrino mass is obtained by determining the shape of the spectrum of tritium β decay electrons close to the endpoint of 18.6 keV with a spectrometer of MAC-E filter type. To achieve the planned sensitivity, the systematic measurement uncertainties have to be carefully controlled and evaluated. Main sources of systematics are the MAC-E filter on the one hand and the source and transport section (STS) on the other hand. Most of the operational parameters of KATRIN have to be stable at or even below the per mille level and have to meet further strict requirements. This talk reviews the KATRIN systematics with a special focus on the STS. Early commissioning measurements to determine the main systematics are introduced.

  17. Inspection of freeform surfaces considering uncertainties in measurement, localization and surface reconstruction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mehrad, Vahid; Xue, Deyi; Gu, Peihua

    2013-01-01

    Inspection of a manufactured freeform surface can be conducted by building its surface model and comparing this manufactured surface model with the ideal design surface model and its tolerance requirement. The manufactured freeform surface model is usually achieved by obtaining measurement points on the manufactured surface, transforming these measurement points from the measurement coordinate system to the design coordinate system through localization, and reconstructing the surface model using the localized measurement points. In this research, a method was developed to estimate the locations and their variances of any selected points on the reconstructed freeform surface considering different sources of uncertainties in measurement, localization and surface reconstruction processes. In this method, first locations and variances of the localized measurement points are calculated considering uncertainties of the measurement points and uncertainties introduced in the localization processes. Then locations and variances of points on the reconstructed freeform surface are obtained considering uncertainties of the localized measurement points and uncertainties introduced in the freeform surface reconstruction process. Two case studies were developed to demonstrate how these three different uncertainty sources influence the quality of the reconstructed freeform curve and freeform surface in inspection. (paper)

  18. Uncertainty in Historical Land-Use Reconstructions with Topographic Maps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaim Dominik

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the outcomes of the uncertainty investigation of a long-term forest cover change analysis in the Polish Carpathians (nearly 20,000 km2 and Swiss Alps (nearly 10,000 km2 based on topographic maps. Following Leyk et al. (2005 all possible uncertainties are grouped into three domains - production-oriented, transformation- oriented and application-oriented. We show typical examples for each uncertainty domain, encountered during the forest cover change analysis and discuss consequences for change detection. Finally, a proposal for reliability assessment is presented.

  19. Robust framework for PET image reconstruction incorporating system and measurement uncertainties.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huafeng Liu

    Full Text Available In Positron Emission Tomography (PET, an optimal estimate of the radioactivity concentration is obtained from the measured emission data under certain criteria. So far, all the well-known statistical reconstruction algorithms require exactly known system probability matrix a priori, and the quality of such system model largely determines the quality of the reconstructed images. In this paper, we propose an algorithm for PET image reconstruction for the real world case where the PET system model is subject to uncertainties. The method counts PET reconstruction as a regularization problem and the image estimation is achieved by means of an uncertainty weighted least squares framework. The performance of our work is evaluated with the Shepp-Logan simulated and real phantom data, which demonstrates significant improvements in image quality over the least squares reconstruction efforts.

  20. The role of uncertainty analysis in dose reconstruction and risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffman, F.O.; Simon, S.L.; Thiessen. K.M.

    1996-01-01

    Dose reconstruction and risk assessment rely heavily on the use of mathematical models to extrapolate information beyond the realm of direct observation. Because models are merely approximations of real systems, their predictions are inherently uncertain. As a result, full disclosure of uncertainty in dose and risk estimates is essential to achieve scientific credibility and to build public trust. The need for formal analysis of uncertainty in model predictions was presented during the nineteenth annual meeting of the NCRP. At that time, quantitative uncertainty analysis was considered a relatively new and difficult subject practiced by only a few investigators. Today, uncertainty analysis has become synonymous with the assessment process itself. When an uncertainty analysis is used iteratively within the assessment process, it can guide experimental research to refine dose and risk estimates, deferring potentially high cost or high consequence decisions until uncertainty is either acceptable or irreducible. Uncertainty analysis is now mandated for all ongoing dose reconstruction projects within the United States, a fact that distinguishes dose reconstruction from other types of exposure and risk assessments. 64 refs., 6 figs., 1 tab

  1. Reconstruction of Defects After Fournier Gangrene: A Systematic Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karian, Laurel S; Chung, Stella Y; Lee, Edward S

    2015-01-01

    Reconstruction of scrotal defects after Fournier gangrene is often achieved with skin grafts or flaps, but there is no general consensus on the best method of reconstruction or how to approach the exposed testicle. We systematically reviewed the literature addressing methods of reconstruction of Fournier defects after debridement. PubMed and Cochrane databases were searched from 1950 to 2013. Inclusion criteria were reconstruction for Fournier defects, patients 18 to 90 years old, and reconstructive complication rates reported as whole numbers or percentages. Exclusion criteria were studies focused on methods of debridement or other phases of care rather than reconstruction, studies with fewer than 5 male patients with Fournier defects, literature reviews, and articles not in English. The initial search yielded 982 studies, which was refined to 16 studies with a total pool of 425 patients. There were 25 (5.9%) patients with defects that healed by secondary intention, 44 (10.4%) with delayed primary closure, 36 (8.5%) with implantation of the testicle in a medial thigh pocket, 6 (1.4%) with loose wound approximation, 96 (22.6%) with skin grafts, 68 (16.0%) with scrotal advancement flaps, 128 (30.1%) with flaps, and 22 (5.2%) with flaps or skin grafts in combination with tissue adhesives. Four outcomes were evaluated: number of patients, defect size, method of reconstruction, and wound-healing complications. Most reconstructive techniques provide reliable coverage and protection of testicular function with an acceptable cosmetic result. There is no conclusive evidence to support flap coverage of exposed testes rather than skin graft. A reconstructive algorithm is proposed. Skin grafting or flap reconstruction is recommended for defects larger than 50% of the scrotum or extending beyond the scrotum, whereas scrotal advancement flap reconstruction or healing by secondary intention is best for defects confined to less than 50% of the scrotum that cannot be closed

  2. Applications of Bayesian temperature profile reconstruction to automated comparison with heat transport models and uncertainty quantification of current diffusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Irishkin, M.; Imbeaux, F.; Aniel, T.; Artaud, J.F.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We developed a method for automated comparison of experimental data with models. • A unique platform implements Bayesian analysis and integrated modelling tools. • The method is tokamak-generic and is applied to Tore Supra and JET pulses. • Validation of a heat transport model is carried out. • We quantified the uncertainties due to Te profiles in current diffusion simulations. - Abstract: In the context of present and future long pulse tokamak experiments yielding a growing size of measured data per pulse, automating data consistency analysis and comparisons of measurements with models is a critical matter. To address these issues, the present work describes an expert system that carries out in an integrated and fully automated way (i) a reconstruction of plasma profiles from the measurements, using Bayesian analysis (ii) a prediction of the reconstructed quantities, according to some models and (iii) a comparison of the first two steps. The first application shown is devoted to the development of an automated comparison method between the experimental plasma profiles reconstructed using Bayesian methods and time dependent solutions of the transport equations. The method was applied to model validation of a simple heat transport model with three radial shape options. It has been tested on a database of 21 Tore Supra and 14 JET shots. The second application aims at quantifying uncertainties due to the electron temperature profile in current diffusion simulations. A systematic reconstruction of the Ne, Te, Ti profiles was first carried out for all time slices of the pulse. The Bayesian 95% highest probability intervals on the Te profile reconstruction were then used for (i) data consistency check of the flux consumption and (ii) defining a confidence interval for the current profile simulation. The method has been applied to one Tore Supra pulse and one JET pulse.

  3. Modelling Spatial Compositional Data: Reconstructions of past land cover and uncertainties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pirzamanbein, Behnaz; Lindström, Johan; Poska, Anneli

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, we construct a hierarchical model for spatial compositional data, which is used to reconstruct past land-cover compositions (in terms of coniferous forest, broadleaved forest, and unforested/open land) for five time periods during the past $6\\,000$ years over Europe. The model...... to a fast MCMC algorithm. Reconstructions are obtained by combining pollen-based estimates of vegetation cover at a limited number of locations with scenarios of past deforestation and output from a dynamic vegetation model. To evaluate uncertainties in the predictions a novel way of constructing joint...... confidence regions for the entire composition at each prediction location is proposed. The hierarchical model's ability to reconstruct past land cover is evaluated through cross validation for all time periods, and by comparing reconstructions for the recent past to a present day European forest map...

  4. Reporting clinical outcomes of breast reconstruction: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potter, S; Brigic, A; Whiting, P F; Cawthorn, S J; Avery, K N L; Donovan, J L; Blazeby, J M

    2011-01-05

    Breast reconstruction after mastectomy for cancer requires accurate evaluation to inform evidence-based participatory decision making, but the standards of outcome reporting after breast reconstruction have not previously been considered. We used extensive searches to identify articles reporting surgical outcomes of breast reconstruction. We extracted data using published criteria for complication reporting modified to reflect reconstructive practice. Study designs included randomized controlled trials, cohort studies, and case series. The Cochrane Risk of Bias tool was used to critically appraise all study designs. Other criteria used to assess the studies were selection and funding bias, statistical power calculations, and institutional review board approval. Wilcoxon signed rank tests were used to compare the breadth and frequency of study outcomes, and χ² tests were used to compare the number of studies in each group reporting each of the published criteria. All statistical tests were two-sided. Surgical complications following breast reconstruction in 42,146 women were evaluated in 134 studies. These included 11 (8.2%) randomized trials, 74 (55.2%) cohort studies, and 49 (36.6%) case series. Fifty-three percent of studies demonstrated a disparity between methods and results in the numbers of complications reported. Complications were defined by 87 (64.9%) studies and graded by 78 (58.2%). Details such as the duration of follow-up and risk factors for adverse outcomes were omitted from 47 (35.1%) and 58 (43.3%) studies, respectively. Overall, the studies defined fewer than 20% of the complications they reported, and the definitions were largely inconsistent. The results of this systematic review suggest that outcome reporting in breast reconstruction is inconsistent and lacks methodological rigor. The development of a standardized core outcome set is recommended to improve outcome reporting in breast reconstruction.

  5. A new OH5 reconstruction with an assessment of its uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benazzi, Stefano; Bookstein, Fred L; Strait, David S; Weber, Gerhard W

    2011-07-01

    The OH5 cranium, holotype of Paranthropus boisei consists of two main portions that do not fit together: the extensively reconstructed face and a portion of the neurocranium. A physical reconstruction of the cranium was carried out by Tobias in 1967, who did not discuss problems related to deformation, although he noted a slight functional asymmetry. Nevertheless, the reconstructed cranium shows some anomalies, mainly due to the right skewed position of the upper calvariofacial fragment and uncertainty of the relative position of the neurocranium to the face, which hamper further quantitative analysis of OH5's cranial geometry. Here, we present a complete virtual reconstruction of OH5, using three-dimensional (3D) digital data, geometric morphometric (GM) methods and computer-aided design (CAD) techniques. Starting from a CT scan of Tobias's reconstruction, a semi-automatic segmentation method was used to remove Tobias's plaster. The upper calvariofacial fragment was separated from the lower facial fragment and re-aligned using superposition of their independent midsagittal planes in a range of feasible positions. The missing parts of the right hemiface were reconstructed using non-uniform rational basis-spline (NURBS) surface and subsequently mirrored using the midsagittal plane to arrive at a symmetrical facial reconstruction. A symmetric neurocranium was obtained as the average of the original shape and its mirrored version. The alignment between the two symmetric shapes (face and neurocranium) used their independent midsagittal plane and a reference shape (KNM-ER 406) to highly reduce their degrees of freedom. From the series of alternative reconstructions, we selected the middle of this rather small feasible range. When reconstructed as a range in this way, the whole cranial form of this unique specimen can be further quantified by comparative coordinate-based methods such as GM or can be used for finite element modeling (FEM) explorations of hypotheses about

  6. Breast sensation after breast reconstruction: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shridharani, Sachin M; Magarakis, Michael; Stapleton, Sahael M; Basdag, Basak; Seal, Stella M; Rosson, Gedge D

    2010-07-01

    Studies show some return of breast sensation after breast reconstruction; however, recovery is variable and unpredictable. Efforts are being made to restore innervation by reattaching nerves (neurotization). We sought to systematically review the literature addressing breast sensation after reconstruction. The following databases were searched: EMBASE, Cochrane, and PubMed. Additionally, the PLASTIC AND RECONSTRUCTIVE SURGERY journal was hand searched from 1960 to 2009. Inclusion criteria included breast reconstruction for cancer, return of sensation with objective results, and patients aged 18 to 90 years. Studies with purely cosmetic procedures, case reports, studies with less than 10 patients, and studies involving male patients were excluded. The initial search yielded 109 studies, which was refined to 20 studies with a total pool of 638 patients. Innervated flaps have a greater magnitude of recovery, which occurs at an earlier stage compared with the noninnervated flaps. Overall, sensation to deep inferior epigastric artery perforator flaps may recover better sensation than transverse rectus abdominis myocutaneous flaps, followed by latissimus dorsi flaps, and finally implants. Women's needs and expectations for sensation have led plastic surgeons to investigate ways to facilitate its return. Studies, however, depict conflicting data. Larger series are needed to define the role of neurotization as a modality for improving sensory restoration. Thieme Medical Publishers.

  7. Automatic reconstruction of fault networks from seismicity catalogs including location uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Y.

    2013-01-01

    Within the framework of plate tectonics, the deformation that arises from the relative movement of two plates occurs across discontinuities in the earth's crust, known as fault zones. Active fault zones are the causal locations of most earthquakes, which suddenly release tectonic stresses within a very short time. In return, fault zones slowly grow by accumulating slip due to such earthquakes by cumulated damage at their tips, and by branching or linking between pre-existing faults of various sizes. Over the last decades, a large amount of knowledge has been acquired concerning the overall phenomenology and mechanics of individual faults and earthquakes: A deep physical and mechanical understanding of the links and interactions between and among them is still missing, however. One of the main issues lies in our failure to always succeed in assigning an earthquake to its causative fault. Using approaches based in pattern-recognition theory, more insight into the relationship between earthquakes and fault structure can be gained by developing an automatic fault network reconstruction approach using high resolution earthquake data sets at largely different scales and by considering individual event uncertainties. This thesis introduces the Anisotropic Clustering of Location Uncertainty Distributions (ACLUD) method to reconstruct active fault networks on the basis of both earthquake locations and their estimated individual uncertainties. This method consists in fitting a given set of hypocenters with an increasing amount of finite planes until the residuals of the fit compare with location uncertainties. After a massive search through the large solution space of possible reconstructed fault networks, six different validation procedures are applied in order to select the corresponding best fault network. Two of the validation steps (cross-validation and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC)) process the fit residuals, while the four others look for solutions that

  8. Reconstruction of regional mean temperature for East Asia since 1900s and its uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hua, W.

    2017-12-01

    Regional average surface air temperature (SAT) is one of the key variables often used to investigate climate change. Unfortunately, because of the limited observations over East Asia, there were also some gaps in the observation data sampling for regional mean SAT analysis, which was important to estimate past climate change. In this study, the regional average temperature of East Asia since 1900s is calculated by the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF)-based optimal interpolation (OA) method with considering the data errors. The results show that our estimate is more precise and robust than the results from simple average, which provides a better way for past climate reconstruction. In addition to the reconstructed regional average SAT anomaly time series, we also estimated uncertainties of reconstruction. The root mean square error (RMSE) results show that the the error decreases with respect to time, and are not sufficiently large to alter the conclusions on the persist warming in East Asia during twenty-first century. Moreover, the test of influence of data error on reconstruction clearly shows the sensitivity of reconstruction to the size of the data error.

  9. Reconstruction of signals with unknown spectra in information field theory with parameter uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ensslin, Torsten A.; Frommert, Mona

    2011-01-01

    The optimal reconstruction of cosmic metric perturbations and other signals requires knowledge of their power spectra and other parameters. If these are not known a priori, they have to be measured simultaneously from the same data used for the signal reconstruction. We formulate the general problem of signal inference in the presence of unknown parameters within the framework of information field theory. To solve this, we develop a generic parameter-uncertainty renormalized estimation (PURE) technique. As a concrete application, we address the problem of reconstructing Gaussian signals with unknown power-spectrum with five different approaches: (i) separate maximum-a-posteriori power-spectrum measurement and subsequent reconstruction, (ii) maximum-a-posteriori reconstruction with marginalized power-spectrum, (iii) maximizing the joint posterior of signal and spectrum, (iv) guessing the spectrum from the variance in the Wiener-filter map, and (v) renormalization flow analysis of the field-theoretical problem providing the PURE filter. In all cases, the reconstruction can be described or approximated as Wiener-filter operations with assumed signal spectra derived from the data according to the same recipe, but with differing coefficients. All of these filters, except the renormalized one, exhibit a perception threshold in case of a Jeffreys prior for the unknown spectrum. Data modes with variance below this threshold do not affect the signal reconstruction at all. Filter (iv) seems to be similar to the so-called Karhune-Loeve and Feldman-Kaiser-Peacock estimators for galaxy power spectra used in cosmology, which therefore should also exhibit a marginal perception threshold if correctly implemented. We present statistical performance tests and show that the PURE filter is superior to the others, especially if the post-Wiener-filter corrections are included or in case an additional scale-independent spectral smoothness prior can be adopted.

  10. Calculation of the detection limit in radiation measurements with systematic uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirkpatrick, J.M.; Russ, W.; Venkataraman, R.; Young, B.M.

    2015-01-01

    The detection limit (L D ) or Minimum Detectable Activity (MDA) is an a priori evaluation of assay sensitivity intended to quantify the suitability of an instrument or measurement arrangement for the needs of a given application. Traditional approaches as pioneered by Currie rely on Gaussian approximations to yield simple, closed-form solutions, and neglect the effects of systematic uncertainties in the instrument calibration. These approximations are applicable over a wide range of applications, but are of limited use in low-count applications, when high confidence values are required, or when systematic uncertainties are significant. One proposed modification to the Currie formulation attempts account for systematic uncertainties within a Gaussian framework. We have previously shown that this approach results in an approximation formula that works best only for small values of the relative systematic uncertainty, for which the modification of Currie's method is the least necessary, and that it significantly overestimates the detection limit or gives infinite or otherwise non-physical results for larger systematic uncertainties where such a correction would be the most useful. We have developed an alternative approach for calculating detection limits based on realistic statistical modeling of the counting distributions which accurately represents statistical and systematic uncertainties. Instead of a closed form solution, numerical and iterative methods are used to evaluate the result. Accurate detection limits can be obtained by this method for the general case

  11. Mapping Soil Transmitted Helminths and Schistosomiasis under Uncertainty: A Systematic Review and Critical Appraisal of Evidence.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea L Araujo Navas

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Spatial modelling of STH and schistosomiasis epidemiology is now commonplace. Spatial epidemiological studies help inform decisions regarding the number of people at risk as well as the geographic areas that need to be targeted with mass drug administration; however, limited attention has been given to propagated uncertainties, their interpretation, and consequences for the mapped values. Using currently published literature on the spatial epidemiology of helminth infections we identified: (1 the main uncertainty sources, their definition and quantification and (2 how uncertainty is informative for STH programme managers and scientists working in this domain.We performed a systematic literature search using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA protocol. We searched Web of Knowledge and PubMed using a combination of uncertainty, geographic and disease terms. A total of 73 papers fulfilled the inclusion criteria for the systematic review. Only 9% of the studies did not address any element of uncertainty, while 91% of studies quantified uncertainty in the predicted morbidity indicators and 23% of studies mapped it. In addition, 57% of the studies quantified uncertainty in the regression coefficients but only 7% incorporated it in the regression response variable (morbidity indicator. Fifty percent of the studies discussed uncertainty in the covariates but did not quantify it. Uncertainty was mostly defined as precision, and quantified using credible intervals by means of Bayesian approaches.None of the studies considered adequately all sources of uncertainties. We highlighted the need for uncertainty in the morbidity indicator and predictor variable to be incorporated into the modelling framework. Study design and spatial support require further attention and uncertainty associated with Earth observation data should be quantified. Finally, more attention should be given to mapping and interpreting

  12. Automatic reconstruction of fault networks from seismicity catalogs including location uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Y.

    2013-07-01

    Within the framework of plate tectonics, the deformation that arises from the relative movement of two plates occurs across discontinuities in the earth's crust, known as fault zones. Active fault zones are the causal locations of most earthquakes, which suddenly release tectonic stresses within a very short time. In return, fault zones slowly grow by accumulating slip due to such earthquakes by cumulated damage at their tips, and by branching or linking between pre-existing faults of various sizes. Over the last decades, a large amount of knowledge has been acquired concerning the overall phenomenology and mechanics of individual faults and earthquakes: A deep physical and mechanical understanding of the links and interactions between and among them is still missing, however. One of the main issues lies in our failure to always succeed in assigning an earthquake to its causative fault. Using approaches based in pattern-recognition theory, more insight into the relationship between earthquakes and fault structure can be gained by developing an automatic fault network reconstruction approach using high resolution earthquake data sets at largely different scales and by considering individual event uncertainties. This thesis introduces the Anisotropic Clustering of Location Uncertainty Distributions (ACLUD) method to reconstruct active fault networks on the basis of both earthquake locations and their estimated individual uncertainties. This method consists in fitting a given set of hypocenters with an increasing amount of finite planes until the residuals of the fit compare with location uncertainties. After a massive search through the large solution space of possible reconstructed fault networks, six different validation procedures are applied in order to select the corresponding best fault network. Two of the validation steps (cross-validation and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC)) process the fit residuals, while the four others look for solutions that

  13. Uncertainty evaluation for three-dimensional scanning electron microscope reconstructions based on the stereo-pair technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carli, L; Cantatore, A; De Chiffre, L; Genta, G; Barbato, G; Levi, R

    2011-01-01

    3D-SEM is a method, based on the stereophotogrammetry technique, which obtains three-dimensional topographic reconstructions starting typically from two SEM images, called the stereo-pair. In this work, a theoretical uncertainty evaluation of the stereo-pair technique, according to GUM (Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement), was carried out, considering 3D-SEM reconstructions of a wire gauge with a reference diameter of 250 µm. Starting from the more commonly used tilting strategy, one based on the item rotation inside the SEM chamber was also adopted. The latter enables multiple-view reconstructions of the cylindrical item under consideration. Uncertainty evaluation was performed starting from a modified version of the Piazzesi equation, enabling the calculation of the z-coordinate from a given stereo-pair. The metrological characteristics of each input variable have been taken into account and a SEM stage calibration has been performed. Uncertainty tables for the cases of tilt and rotation were then produced, leading to the calculation of expanded uncertainty. For the case of rotation, the largest uncertainty contribution resulted to be the rotational angle; however, for the case of tilt it resulted to be the pixel size. A relative expanded uncertainty equal to 5% and 4% was obtained for the case of rotation and tilt, respectively

  14. A systematic framework for effective uncertainty assessment of severe accident calculations; Hybrid qualitative and quantitative methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoseyni, Seyed Mohsen; Pourgol-Mohammad, Mohammad; Tehranifard, Ali Abbaspour; Yousefpour, Faramarz

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes a systematic framework for characterizing important phenomena and quantifying the degree of contribution of each parameter to the output in severe accident uncertainty assessment. The proposed methodology comprises qualitative as well as quantitative phases. The qualitative part so called Modified PIRT, being a robust process of PIRT for more precise quantification of uncertainties, is a two step process for identifying and ranking based on uncertainty importance in severe accident phenomena. In this process identified severe accident phenomena are ranked according to their effect on the figure of merit and their level of knowledge. Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) serves here as a systematic approach for severe accident phenomena ranking. Formal uncertainty importance technique is used to estimate the degree of credibility of the severe accident model(s) used to represent the important phenomena. The methodology uses subjective justification by evaluating available information and data from experiments, and code predictions for this step. The quantitative part utilizes uncertainty importance measures for the quantification of the effect of each input parameter to the output uncertainty. A response surface fitting approach is proposed for estimating associated uncertainties with less calculation cost. The quantitative results are used to plan in reducing epistemic uncertainty in the output variable(s). The application of the proposed methodology is demonstrated for the ACRR MP-2 severe accident test facility. - Highlights: • A two stage framework for severe accident uncertainty analysis is proposed. • Modified PIRT qualitatively identifies and ranks uncertainty sources more precisely. • Uncertainty importance measure quantitatively calculates effect of each uncertainty source. • Methodology is applied successfully on ACRR MP-2 severe accident test facility

  15. Systematic and non-systematic effects of the uncertainty of the sample position in gamma-ray spectrometry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vidmar, T.; Korun, M.

    2004-01-01

    When cylindrical samples placed coaxially with the detector are measured on a gamma-ray spectrometer, the position of the sample very often deviates from an ideal one with the axes of the sample and the detector less than perfectly aligned. If a calibrated source is used prior to the measurement and is presumed to have been positioned correctly, one might conclude that the misalignment of the measured sample should result in an uncertainty of the reported nuclide activity, since the efficiencies of the sample and the calibrated source are effectively different due to the difference in placement. The efficiency of a displaced cylindrical sample, however, is always lower than the one of a sample that is perfectly aligned. The net effect of misalignment can therefore be not only an increase in the uncertainty of the activity, but also a systematic error in its evaluation. Since the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement requires that all such systematic effects be corrected for, we have developed a method to assess the change in the efficiency resulting from misalignment and to introduce the required correction. The calculation of this correction only requires knowledge of basic sample and detector data. The uncertainty of the reported activity can then also be assessed and is influenced by the uncertainty of the efficiency evaluated around its new, corrected value. An appropriate expression for this uncertainty has been derived

  16. Trajectory Reconstruction and Uncertainty Analysis Using Mars Science Laboratory Pre-Flight Scale Model Aeroballistic Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lugo, Rafael A.; Tolson, Robert H.; Schoenenberger, Mark

    2013-01-01

    As part of the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) trajectory reconstruction effort at NASA Langley Research Center, free-flight aeroballistic experiments of instrumented MSL scale models was conducted at Aberdeen Proving Ground in Maryland. The models carried an inertial measurement unit (IMU) and a flush air data system (FADS) similar to the MSL Entry Atmospheric Data System (MEADS) that provided data types similar to those from the MSL entry. Multiple sources of redundant data were available, including tracking radar and on-board magnetometers. These experimental data enabled the testing and validation of the various tools and methodologies that will be used for MSL trajectory reconstruction. The aerodynamic parameters Mach number, angle of attack, and sideslip angle were estimated using minimum variance with a priori to combine the pressure data and pre-flight computational fluid dynamics (CFD) data. Both linear and non-linear pressure model terms were also estimated for each pressure transducer as a measure of the errors introduced by CFD and transducer calibration. Parameter uncertainties were estimated using a "consider parameters" approach.

  17. Phylogenetic uncertainty can bias the number of evolutionary transitions estimated from ancestral state reconstruction methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duchêne, Sebastian; Lanfear, Robert

    2015-09-01

    Ancestral state reconstruction (ASR) is a popular method for exploring the evolutionary history of traits that leave little or no trace in the fossil record. For example, it has been used to test hypotheses about the number of evolutionary origins of key life-history traits such as oviparity, or key morphological structures such as wings. Many studies that use ASR have suggested that the number of evolutionary origins of such traits is higher than was previously thought. The scope of such inferences is increasing rapidly, facilitated by the construction of very large phylogenies and life-history databases. In this paper, we use simulations to show that the number of evolutionary origins of a trait tends to be overestimated when the phylogeny is not perfect. In some cases, the estimated number of transitions can be several fold higher than the true value. Furthermore, we show that the bias is not always corrected by standard approaches to account for phylogenetic uncertainty, such as repeating the analysis on a large collection of possible trees. These findings have important implications for studies that seek to estimate the number of origins of a trait, particularly those that use large phylogenies that are associated with considerable uncertainty. We discuss the implications of this bias, and methods to ameliorate it. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  18. SUPERNOVA CONSTRAINTS AND SYSTEMATIC UNCERTAINTIES FROM THE FIRST THREE YEARS OF THE SUPERNOVA LEGACY SURVEY

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conley, A.; Carlberg, R. G.; Perrett, K. M.; Guy, J.; Regnault, N.; Astier, P.; Balland, C.; Hardin, D.; Pain, R.; Sullivan, M.; Hook, I. M.; Basa, S.; Fouchez, D.; Howell, D. A.; Palanque-Delabrouille, N.; Rich, J.; Ruhlmann-Kleider, V.; Pritchet, C. J.; Balam, D.; Baumont, S.

    2011-01-01

    We combine high-redshift Type Ia supernovae from the first three years of the Supernova Legacy Survey (SNLS) with other supernova (SN) samples, primarily at lower redshifts, to form a high-quality joint sample of 472 SNe (123 low-z, 93 SDSS, 242 SNLS, and 14 Hubble Space Telescope). SN data alone require cosmic acceleration at >99.999% confidence, including systematic effects. For the dark energy equation of state parameter (assumed constant out to at least z = 1.4) in a flat universe, we find w = -0.91 +0.16 -0.20 (stat) +0.07 -0.14 (sys) from SNe only, consistent with a cosmological constant. Our fits include a correction for the recently discovered relationship between host-galaxy mass and SN absolute brightness. We pay particular attention to systematic uncertainties, characterizing them using a systematic covariance matrix that incorporates the redshift dependence of these effects, as well as the shape-luminosity and color-luminosity relationships. Unlike previous work, we include the effects of systematic terms on the empirical light-curve models. The total systematic uncertainty is dominated by calibration terms. We describe how the systematic uncertainties can be reduced with soon to be available improved nearby and intermediate-redshift samples, particularly those calibrated onto USNO/SDSS-like systems.

  19. Uncertainty evaluation for three-dimensional scanning electron microscope reconstructions based on the stereo-pair technique

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carli, Lorenzo; Genta, G; Cantatore, Angela

    2011-01-01

    3D-SEM is a method, based on the stereophotogrammetry technique, which obtains three-dimensional topographic reconstructions starting typically from two SEM images, called the stereo-pair. In this work, a theoretical uncertainty evaluation of the stereo-pair technique, according to GUM (Guide to ...

  20. Systematic uncertainties in long-baseline neutrino oscillations for large θ₁₃

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coloma, Pilar; Huber, Patrick; Kopp, Joachim; Winter, Walter

    2013-02-01

    We study the physics potential of future long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiments at large θ₁₃, focusing especially on systematic uncertainties. We discuss superbeams, \\bbeams, and neutrino factories, and for the first time compare these experiments on an equal footing with respect to systematic errors. We explicitly simulate near detectors for all experiments, we use the same implementation of systematic uncertainties for all experiments, and we fully correlate the uncertainties among detectors, oscillation channels, and beam polarizations as appropriate. As our primary performance indicator, we use the achievable precision in the measurement of the CP violating phase $\\deltacp$. We find that a neutrino factory is the only instrument that can measure $\\deltacp$ with a precision similar to that of its quark sector counterpart. All neutrino beams operating at peak energies ≳2 GeV are quite robust with respect to systematic uncertainties, whereas especially \\bbeams and \\thk suffer from large cross section uncertainties in the quasi-elastic regime, combined with their inability to measure the appearance signal cross sections at the near detector. A noteworthy exception is the combination of a γ =100 \\bbeam with an \\spl-based superbeam, in which all relevant cross sections can be measured in a self-consistent way. This provides a performance, second only to the neutrino factory. For other superbeam experiments such as \\lbno and the setups studied in the context of the \\lbne reconfiguration effort, statistics turns out to be the bottleneck. In almost all cases, the near detector is not critical to control systematics since the combined fit of appearance and disappearance data already constrains the impact of systematics to be small provided that the three active flavor oscillation framework is valid.

  1. Uncertainty of the peak flow reconstruction of the 1907 flood in the Ebro River in Xerta (NE Iberian Peninsula)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz-Bellet, Josep Lluís; Castelltort, Xavier; Balasch, J. Carles; Tuset, Jordi

    2017-02-01

    There is no clear, unified and accepted method to estimate the uncertainty of hydraulic modelling results. In historical floods reconstruction, due to the lower precision of input data, the magnitude of this uncertainty could reach a high value. With the objectives of giving an estimate of the peak flow error of a typical historical flood reconstruction with the model HEC-RAS and of providing a quick, simple uncertainty assessment that an end user could easily apply, the uncertainty of the reconstructed peak flow of a major flood in the Ebro River (NE Iberian Peninsula) was calculated with a set of local sensitivity analyses on six input variables. The peak flow total error was estimated at ±31% and water height was found to be the most influential variable on peak flow, followed by Manning's n. However, the latter, due to its large uncertainty, was the greatest contributor to peak flow total error. Besides, the HEC-RAS resulting peak flow was compared to the ones obtained with the 2D model Iber and with Manning's equation; all three methods gave similar peak flows. Manning's equation gave almost the same result than HEC-RAS. The main conclusion is that, to ensure the lowest peak flow error, the reliability and precision of the flood mark should be thoroughly assessed.

  2. Upper limit for Poisson variable incorporating systematic uncertainties by Bayesian approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu, Yongsheng

    2007-01-01

    To calculate the upper limit for the Poisson observable at given confidence level with inclusion of systematic uncertainties in background expectation and signal efficiency, formulations have been established along the line of Bayesian approach. A FORTRAN program, BPULE, has been developed to implement the upper limit calculation

  3. "Anatomic" anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction: a systematic review of surgical techniques and reporting of surgical data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Eck, Carola F.; Schreiber, Verena M.; Mejia, Hector A.; Samuelsson, Kristian; van Dijk, C. Niek; Karlsson, Jon; Fu, Freddie H.

    2010-01-01

    PURPOSE: The aim of this systematic review was to evaluate studies published on anatomic double-bundle anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction. METHODS: A systematic electronic search was performed by use of the Medline and Embase databases. Studies that were published from January 1995 to

  4. Uncertainties

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    To reflect this uncertainty in the climate scenarios, the use of AOGCMs that explicitly simulate the carbon cycle and chemistry of all the substances are needed. The Hadley Centre has developed a version of the climate model that allows the effect of climate change on the carbon cycle and its feedback into climate, to be ...

  5. Uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, T.A. da

    1988-01-01

    The comparison between the uncertainty method recommended by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the and the International Weight and Measure Commitee (CIPM) are showed, for the calibration of clinical dosimeters in the secondary standard Dosimetry Laboratory (SSDL). (C.G.C.) [pt

  6. Sampling of systematic errors to estimate likelihood weights in nuclear data uncertainty propagation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helgesson, P.; Sjöstrand, H.; Koning, A.J.; Rydén, J.; Rochman, D.; Alhassan, E.; Pomp, S.

    2016-01-01

    In methodologies for nuclear data (ND) uncertainty assessment and propagation based on random sampling, likelihood weights can be used to infer experimental information into the distributions for the ND. As the included number of correlated experimental points grows large, the computational time for the matrix inversion involved in obtaining the likelihood can become a practical problem. There are also other problems related to the conventional computation of the likelihood, e.g., the assumption that all experimental uncertainties are Gaussian. In this study, a way to estimate the likelihood which avoids matrix inversion is investigated; instead, the experimental correlations are included by sampling of systematic errors. It is shown that the model underlying the sampling methodology (using univariate normal distributions for random and systematic errors) implies a multivariate Gaussian for the experimental points (i.e., the conventional model). It is also shown that the likelihood estimates obtained through sampling of systematic errors approach the likelihood obtained with matrix inversion as the sample size for the systematic errors grows large. In studied practical cases, it is seen that the estimates for the likelihood weights converge impractically slowly with the sample size, compared to matrix inversion. The computational time is estimated to be greater than for matrix inversion in cases with more experimental points, too. Hence, the sampling of systematic errors has little potential to compete with matrix inversion in cases where the latter is applicable. Nevertheless, the underlying model and the likelihood estimates can be easier to intuitively interpret than the conventional model and the likelihood function involving the inverted covariance matrix. Therefore, this work can both have pedagogical value and be used to help motivating the conventional assumption of a multivariate Gaussian for experimental data. The sampling of systematic errors could also

  7. Improving the control of systematic uncertainties in precision measurements of radionuclide half-life

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Towers, S.

    2013-01-01

    Many experiments designed to precisely determine the half-life of a radionuclide employ a long lived reference source to help determine the impact on the data of any systematic variation in the detector and associated electronics. The half-life of the radionuclide of interest is determined from the ratio of its decay rate data to the decay rate data from the reference source. This correction procedure assumes that any underlying systematic affects the data and reference measurements in exactly the same way. In this paper we show that when some systematic effects affect the two differently, the ratio procedure can leave artifacts in the corrected data that can compromise an unbiased and precise assessment of the radionuclide half-life. We describe two methods that can help overcome this problem. We also describe several statistical tests that help determine which effects may underlie systematic variations in the data. We discuss an illustrative example based on previously published 32 Si and 36 Cl data recorded by an experiment at Brookhaven National Laboratory. We correct the data for systematic variation related to climate variation and estimate the 32 Si half-life to be T 1/2 =171.8±1.8. The reduction in uncertainty in the 32 Si half-life, relative to the previous estimate based upon this data, is equivalent to that which would be achieved through increasing the size of the data set by almost 3.5 times. - Author-Highlights: • Isotope decay data and reference source data can have differing systematics. • Differing systematics can inflate uncertainty of isotope half-life estimate. • We describe two methods to overcome this problem. • We describe statistical tests to determine which variables cause systematics. • We analyze Brookhaven 32Si/36Cl decay data as an illustrative example

  8. Do systematic reviews address community healthcare professionals' wound care uncertainties? Results from evidence mapping in wound care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christie, Janice; Gray, Trish A; Dumville, Jo C; Cullum, Nicky A

    2018-01-01

    Complex wounds such as leg and foot ulcers are common, resource intensive and have negative impacts on patients' wellbeing. Evidence-based decision-making, substantiated by high quality evidence such as from systematic reviews, is widely advocated for improving patient care and healthcare efficiency. Consequently, we set out to classify and map the extent to which up-to-date systematic reviews containing robust evidence exist for wound care uncertainties prioritised by community-based healthcare professionals. We asked healthcare professionals to prioritise uncertainties based on complex wound care decisions, and then classified 28 uncertainties according to the type and level of decision. For each uncertainty, we searched for relevant systematic reviews. Two independent reviewers screened abstracts and full texts of reviews against the following criteria: meeting an a priori definition of a systematic review, sufficiently addressing the uncertainty, published during or after 2012, and identifying high quality research evidence. The most common uncertainty type was 'interventions' 24/28 (85%); the majority concerned wound level decisions 15/28 (53%) however, service delivery level decisions (10/28) were given highest priority. Overall, we found 162 potentially relevant reviews of which 57 (35%) were not systematic reviews. Of 106 systematic reviews, only 28 were relevant to an uncertainty and 18 of these were published within the preceding five years; none identified high quality research evidence. Despite the growing volume of published primary research, healthcare professionals delivering wound care have important clinical uncertainties which are not addressed by up-to-date systematic reviews containing high certainty evidence. These are high priority topics requiring new research and systematic reviews which are regularly updated. To reduce clinical and research waste, we recommend systematic reviewers and researchers make greater efforts to ensure that research

  9. Jet energy measurement and its systematic uncertainty in proton-proton collisions at $\\sqrt{s}$=7 TeV with the ATLAS detector

    CERN Document Server

    Aad, Georges; Abbott, Brad; Abdallah, Jalal; Abdel Khalek, Samah; Abdinov, Ovsat; Aben, Rosemarie; Abi, Babak; Abolins, Maris; AbouZeid, Ossama; Abramowicz, Halina; Abreu, Henso; Abulaiti, Yiming; Acharya, Bobby Samir; Adamczyk, Leszek; Adams, David; Addy, Tetteh; Adelman, Jahred; Adomeit, Stefanie; Adye, Tim; Aefsky, Scott; Agatonovic-Jovin, Tatjana; Aguilar-Saavedra, Juan Antonio; Agustoni, Marco; Ahlen, Steven; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Ahmadov, Faig; Aielli, Giulio; Åkesson, Torsten Paul Ake; Akimoto, Ginga; Akimov, Andrei; Alam, Muhammad Aftab; Albert, Justin; Albrand, Solveig; Alconada Verzini, Maria Josefina; Aleksa, Martin; Aleksandrov, Igor; Alessandria, Franco; Alexa, Calin; Alexander, Gideon; Alexandre, Gauthier; Alexopoulos, Theodoros; Alhroob, Muhammad; Aliev, Malik; Alimonti, Gianluca; Alio, Lion; Alison, John; Allbrooke, Benedict; Allison, Lee John; Allport, Phillip; Allwood-Spiers, Sarah; Almond, John; Aloisio, Alberto; Alon, Raz; Alonso, Alejandro; Alonso, Francisco; Altheimer, Andrew David; Alvarez Gonzalez, Barbara; Alviggi, Mariagrazia; Amako, Katsuya; Amaral Coutinho, Yara; Amelung, Christoph; Ammosov, Vladimir; Amor Dos Santos, Susana Patricia; Amorim, Antonio; Amoroso, Simone; Amram, Nir; Amundsen, Glenn; Anastopoulos, Christos; Ancu, Lucian Stefan; Andari, Nansi; Andeen, Timothy; Anders, Christoph Falk; Anders, Gabriel; Anderson, Kelby; Andreazza, Attilio; Andrei, George Victor; Anduaga, Xabier; Angelidakis, Stylianos; Anger, Philipp; Angerami, Aaron; Anghinolfi, Francis; Anisenkov, Alexey; Anjos, Nuno; Annovi, Alberto; Antonaki, Ariadni; Antonelli, Mario; Antonov, Alexey; Antos, Jaroslav; Anulli, Fabio; Aoki, Masato; Aperio Bella, Ludovica; Apolle, Rudi; Arabidze, Giorgi; Aracena, Ignacio; Arai, Yasuo; Arce, Ayana; Arfaoui, Samir; Arguin, Jean-Francois; Argyropoulos, Spyridon; Arik, Engin; Arik, Metin; Armbruster, Aaron James; Arnaez, Olivier; Arnal, Vanessa; Arslan, Ozan; Artamonov, Andrei; Artoni, Giacomo; Asai, Shoji; Asbah, Nedaa; Ask, Stefan; Åsman, Barbro; Asquith, Lily; Assamagan, Ketevi; Astalos, Robert; Astbury, Alan; Atkinson, Markus; Atlay, Naim Bora; Auerbach, Benjamin; Auge, Etienne; Augsten, Kamil; Aurousseau, Mathieu; Avolio, Giuseppe; Azuelos, Georges; Azuma, Yuya; Baak, Max; Bacci, Cesare; Bach, Andre; Bachacou, Henri; Bachas, Konstantinos; Backes, Moritz; Backhaus, Malte; Backus Mayes, John; Badescu, Elisabeta; Bagiacchi, Paolo; Bagnaia, Paolo; Bai, Yu; Bailey, David; Bain, Travis; Baines, John; Baker, Oliver Keith; Baker, Sarah; Balek, Petr; Balli, Fabrice; Banas, Elzbieta; Banerjee, Swagato; Banfi, Danilo; Bangert, Andrea Michelle; Bansal, Vikas; Bansil, Hardeep Singh; Barak, Liron; Baranov, Sergei; Barber, Tom; Barberio, Elisabetta Luigia; Barberis, Dario; Barbero, Marlon; Barillari, Teresa; Barisonzi, Marcello; Barklow, Timothy; Barlow, Nick; Barnett, Bruce; Barnett, Michael; Baroncelli, Antonio; Barone, Gaetano; Barr, Alan; Barreiro, Fernando; Barreiro Guimarães da Costa, João; Bartoldus, Rainer; Barton, Adam Edward; Bartos, Pavol; Bartsch, Valeria; Bassalat, Ahmed; Basye, Austin; Bates, Richard; Batkova, Lucia; Batley, Richard; Battistin, Michele; Bauer, Florian; Bawa, Harinder Singh; Beau, Tristan; Beauchemin, Pierre-Hugues; Beccherle, Roberto; Bechtle, Philip; Beck, Hans Peter; Becker, Anne Kathrin; Becker, Sebastian; Beckingham, Matthew; Beddall, Andrew; Beddall, Ayda; Bedikian, Sourpouhi; Bednyakov, Vadim; Bee, Christopher; Beemster, Lars; Beermann, Thomas; Begel, Michael; Behr, Katharina; Belanger-Champagne, Camille; Bell, Paul; Bell, William; Bella, Gideon; Bellagamba, Lorenzo; Bellerive, Alain; Bellomo, Massimiliano; Belloni, Alberto; Beloborodova, Olga; Belotskiy, Konstantin; Beltramello, Olga; Benary, Odette; Benchekroun, Driss; Bendtz, Katarina; Benekos, Nektarios; Benhammou, Yan; Benhar Noccioli, Eleonora; Benitez Garcia, Jorge-Armando; Benjamin, Douglas; Bensinger, James; Benslama, Kamal; Bentvelsen, Stan; Berge, David; Bergeaas Kuutmann, Elin; Berger, Nicolas; Berghaus, Frank; Berglund, Elina; Beringer, Jürg; Bernard, Clare; Bernat, Pauline; Bernhard, Ralf; Bernius, Catrin; Bernlochner, Florian Urs; Berry, Tracey; Berta, Peter; Bertella, Claudia; Bertolucci, Federico; Besana, Maria Ilaria; Besjes, Geert-Jan; Bessidskaia, Olga; Besson, Nathalie; Bethke, Siegfried; Bhimji, Wahid; Bianchi, Riccardo-Maria; Bianchini, Louis; Bianco, Michele; Biebel, Otmar; Bieniek, Stephen Paul; Bierwagen, Katharina; Biesiada, Jed; Biglietti, Michela; Bilbao De Mendizabal, Javier; Bilokon, Halina; Bindi, Marcello; Binet, Sebastien; Bingul, Ahmet; Bini, Cesare; Bittner, Bernhard; Black, Curtis; Black, James; Black, Kevin; Blackburn, Daniel; Blair, Robert; Blanchard, Jean-Baptiste; Blazek, Tomas; Bloch, Ingo; Blocker, Craig; Blocki, Jacek; Blum, Walter; Blumenschein, Ulrike; Bobbink, Gerjan; Bobrovnikov, Victor; Bocchetta, Simona Serena; Bocci, Andrea; Boddy, Christopher Richard; Boehler, Michael; Boek, Jennifer; Boek, Thorsten Tobias; Boelaert, Nele; Bogaerts, Joannes Andreas; Bogdanchikov, Alexander; Bogouch, Andrei; Bohm, Christian; Bohm, Jan; Boisvert, Veronique; Bold, Tomasz; Boldea, Venera; Boldyrev, Alexey; Bolnet, Nayanka Myriam; Bomben, Marco; Bona, Marcella; Boonekamp, Maarten; Bordoni, Stefania; Borer, Claudia; Borisov, Anatoly; Borissov, Guennadi; Borri, Marcello; Borroni, Sara; Bortfeldt, Jonathan; Bortolotto, Valerio; Bos, Kors; Boscherini, Davide; Bosman, Martine; Boterenbrood, Hendrik; Bouchami, Jihene; Boudreau, Joseph; Bouhova-Thacker, Evelina Vassileva; Boumediene, Djamel Eddine; Bourdarios, Claire; Bousson, Nicolas; Boutouil, Sara; Boveia, Antonio; Boyd, James; Boyko, Igor; Bozovic-Jelisavcic, Ivanka; Bracinik, Juraj; Branchini, Paolo; Brandt, Andrew; Brandt, Gerhard; Brandt, Oleg; Bratzler, Uwe; Brau, Benjamin; Brau, James; Braun, Helmut; Brazzale, Simone Federico; Brelier, Bertrand; Brendlinger, Kurt; Brenner, Richard; Bressler, Shikma; Bristow, Timothy Michael; Britton, Dave; Brochu, Frederic; Brock, Ian; Brock, Raymond; Broggi, Francesco; Bromberg, Carl; Bronner, Johanna; Brooijmans, Gustaaf; Brooks, Timothy; Brooks, William; Brosamer, Jacquelyn; Brost, Elizabeth; Brown, Gareth; Brown, Jonathan; Bruckman de Renstrom, Pawel; Bruncko, Dusan; Bruneliere, Renaud; Brunet, Sylvie; Bruni, Alessia; Bruni, Graziano; Bruschi, Marco; Bryngemark, Lene; Buanes, Trygve; Buat, Quentin; Bucci, Francesca; Buchholz, Peter; Buckingham, Ryan; Buckley, Andrew; Buda, Stelian Ioan; Budagov, Ioulian; Budick, Burton; Buehrer, Felix; Bugge, Lars; Bugge, Magnar Kopangen; Bulekov, Oleg; Bundock, Aaron Colin; Bunse, Moritz; Burckhart, Helfried; Burdin, Sergey; Burgess, Thomas; Burghgrave, Blake; Burke, Stephen; Burmeister, Ingo; Busato, Emmanuel; Büscher, Volker; Bussey, Peter; Buszello, Claus-Peter; Butler, Bart; Butler, John; Butt, Aatif Imtiaz; Buttar, Craig; Butterworth, Jonathan; Buttinger, William; Buzatu, Adrian; Byszewski, Marcin; Cabrera Urbán, Susana; Caforio, Davide; Cakir, Orhan; Calafiura, Paolo; Calderini, Giovanni; Calfayan, Philippe; Calkins, Robert; Caloba, Luiz; Caloi, Rita; Calvet, David; Calvet, Samuel; Camacho Toro, Reina; Camarri, Paolo; Cameron, David; Caminada, Lea Michaela; Caminal Armadans, Roger; Campana, Simone; Campanelli, Mario; Canale, Vincenzo; Canelli, Florencia; Canepa, Anadi; Cantero, Josu; Cantrill, Robert; Cao, Tingting; Capeans Garrido, Maria Del Mar; Caprini, Irinel; Caprini, Mihai; Capua, Marcella; Caputo, Regina; Cardarelli, Roberto; Carli, Tancredi; Carlino, Gianpaolo; Carminati, Leonardo; Caron, Sascha; Carquin, Edson; Carrillo-Montoya, German D; Carter, Antony; Carter, Janet; Carvalho, João; Casadei, Diego; Casado, Maria Pilar; Caso, Carlo; Castaneda-Miranda, Elizabeth; Castelli, Angelantonio; Castillo Gimenez, Victoria; Castro, Nuno Filipe; Catastini, Pierluigi; Catinaccio, Andrea; Catmore, James; Cattai, Ariella; Cattani, Giordano; Caughron, Seth; Cavaliere, Viviana; Cavalli, Donatella; Cavalli-Sforza, Matteo; Cavasinni, Vincenzo; Ceradini, Filippo; Cerio, Benjamin; Cerny, Karel; Santiago Cerqueira, Augusto; Cerri, Alessandro; Cerrito, Lucio; Cerutti, Fabio; Cervelli, Alberto; Cetin, Serkant Ali; Chafaq, Aziz; Chakraborty, Dhiman; Chalupkova, Ina; Chan, Kevin; Chang, Philip; Chapleau, Bertrand; Chapman, John Derek; Charfeddine, Driss; Charlton, Dave; Chavda, Vikash; Chavez Barajas, Carlos Alberto; Cheatham, Susan; Chekanov, Sergei; Chekulaev, Sergey; Chelkov, Gueorgui; Chelstowska, Magda Anna; Chen, Chunhui; Chen, Hucheng; Chen, Karen; Chen, Liming; Chen, Shenjian; Chen, Xin; Chen, Yujiao; Cheng, Yangyang; Cheplakov, Alexander; Cherkaoui El Moursli, Rajaa; Chernyatin, Valeriy; Cheu, Elliott; Chevalier, Laurent; Chiarella, Vitaliano; Chiefari, Giovanni; Childers, John Taylor; Chilingarov, Alexandre; Chiodini, Gabriele; Chisholm, Andrew; Chislett, Rebecca Thalatta; Chitan, Adrian; Chizhov, Mihail; Chouridou, Sofia; Chow, Bonnie Kar Bo; Christidi, Ilektra-Athanasia; Chromek-Burckhart, Doris; Chu, Ming-Lee; Chudoba, Jiri; Ciapetti, Guido; Ciftci, Abbas Kenan; Ciftci, Rena; Cinca, Diane; Cindro, Vladimir; Ciocio, Alessandra; Cirilli, Manuela; Cirkovic, Predrag; Citron, Zvi Hirsh; Citterio, Mauro; Ciubancan, Mihai; Clark, Allan G; Clark, Philip James; Clarke, Robert; Cleland, Bill; Clemens, Jean-Claude; Clement, Benoit; Clement, Christophe; Coadou, Yann; Cobal, Marina; Coccaro, Andrea; Cochran, James H; Coelli, Simone; Coffey, Laurel; Cogan, Joshua Godfrey; Coggeshall, James; Colas, Jacques; Cole, Brian; Cole, Stephen; Colijn, Auke-Pieter; Collins-Tooth, Christopher; Collot, Johann; Colombo, Tommaso; Colon, German; Compostella, Gabriele; Conde Muiño, Patricia; Coniavitis, Elias; Conidi, Maria Chiara; Connelly, Ian; Consonni, Sofia Maria; Consorti, Valerio; Constantinescu, Serban; Conta, Claudio; Conti, Geraldine; Conventi, Francesco; Cooke, Mark; Cooper, Ben; Cooper-Sarkar, Amanda; Cooper-Smith, Neil; Copic, Katherine; Cornelissen, Thijs; Corradi, Massimo; Corriveau, Francois; Corso-Radu, Alina; Cortes-Gonzalez, Arely; Cortiana, Giorgio; Costa, Giuseppe; Costa, María José; Costanzo, Davide; Côté, David; Cottin, Giovanna; Courneyea, Lorraine; Cowan, Glen; Cox, Brian; Cranmer, Kyle; Cree, Graham; Crépé-Renaudin, Sabine; Crescioli, Francesco; Crispin Ortuzar, Mireia; Cristinziani, Markus; Crosetti, Giovanni; Cuciuc, Constantin-Mihai; Cuenca Almenar, Cristóbal; Cuhadar Donszelmann, Tulay; Cummings, Jane; Curatolo, Maria; Cuthbert, Cameron; Czirr, Hendrik; Czodrowski, Patrick; Czyczula, Zofia; D'Auria, Saverio; D'Onofrio, Monica; D'Orazio, Alessia; Da Cunha Sargedas De Sousa, Mario Jose; Da Via, Cinzia; Dabrowski, Wladyslaw; Dafinca, Alexandru; Dai, Tiesheng; Dallaire, Frederick; Dallapiccola, Carlo; Dam, Mogens; Daniells, Andrew Christopher; Dano Hoffmann, Maria; Dao, Valerio; Darbo, Giovanni; Darlea, Georgiana Lavinia; Darmora, Smita; Dassoulas, James; Davey, Will; David, Claire; Davidek, Tomas; Davies, Eleanor; Davies, Merlin; Davignon, Olivier; Davison, Adam; Davygora, Yuriy; Dawe, Edmund; Dawson, Ian; Daya-Ishmukhametova, Rozmin; De, Kaushik; de Asmundis, Riccardo; De Castro, Stefano; De Cecco, Sandro; de Graat, Julien; De Groot, Nicolo; de Jong, Paul; De La Taille, Christophe; De la Torre, Hector; De Lorenzi, Francesco; De Nooij, Lucie; De Pedis, Daniele; De Salvo, Alessandro; De Sanctis, Umberto; De Santo, Antonella; De Vivie De Regie, Jean-Baptiste; De Zorzi, Guido; Dearnaley, William James; Debbe, Ramiro; Debenedetti, Chiara; Dechenaux, Benjamin; Dedovich, Dmitri; Degenhardt, James; Del Peso, Jose; Del Prete, Tarcisio; Delemontex, Thomas; Deliot, Frederic; Deliyergiyev, Maksym; Dell'Acqua, Andrea; Dell'Asta, Lidia; Della Pietra, Massimo; della Volpe, Domenico; Delmastro, Marco; Delsart, Pierre-Antoine; Deluca, Carolina; Demers, Sarah; Demichev, Mikhail; Demilly, Aurelien; Demirkoz, Bilge; Denisov, Sergey; Derendarz, Dominik; Derkaoui, Jamal Eddine; Derue, Frederic; Dervan, Paul; Desch, Klaus Kurt; Deviveiros, Pier-Olivier; Dewhurst, Alastair; DeWilde, Burton; Dhaliwal, Saminder; Dhullipudi, Ramasudhakar; Di Ciaccio, Anna; Di Ciaccio, Lucia; Di Domenico, Antonio; Di Donato, Camilla; Di Girolamo, Alessandro; Di Girolamo, Beniamino; Di Mattia, Alessandro; Di Micco, Biagio; Di Nardo, Roberto; Di Simone, Andrea; Di Sipio, Riccardo; Di Valentino, David; Diaz, Marco Aurelio; Diehl, Edward; Dietrich, Janet; Dietzsch, Thorsten; Diglio, Sara; Dindar Yagci, Kamile; Dingfelder, Jochen; Dionisi, Carlo; Dita, Petre; Dita, Sanda; Dittus, Fridolin; Djama, Fares; Djobava, Tamar; Barros do Vale, Maria Aline; Do Valle Wemans, André; Doan, Thi Kieu Oanh; Dobos, Daniel; Dobson, Ellie; Dodd, Jeremy; Doglioni, Caterina; Doherty, Tom; Dohmae, Takeshi; Dolejsi, Jiri; Dolezal, Zdenek; Dolgoshein, Boris; Donadelli, Marisilvia; Donati, Simone; Dondero, Paolo; Donini, Julien; Dopke, Jens; Doria, Alessandra; Dos Anjos, Andre; Dotti, Andrea; Dova, Maria-Teresa; Doyle, Tony; Dris, Manolis; Dubbert, Jörg; Dube, Sourabh; Dubreuil, Emmanuelle; Duchovni, Ehud; Duckeck, Guenter; Ducu, Otilia Anamaria; Duda, Dominik; Dudarev, Alexey; Dudziak, Fanny; Duflot, Laurent; Duguid, Liam; Dührssen, Michael; Dunford, Monica; Duran Yildiz, Hatice; Düren, Michael; Dwuznik, Michal; Ebke, Johannes; Edson, William; Edwards, Clive; Edwards, Nicholas Charles; Ehrenfeld, Wolfgang; Eifert, Till; Eigen, Gerald; Einsweiler, Kevin; Eisenhandler, Eric; Ekelof, Tord; El Kacimi, Mohamed; Ellert, Mattias; Elles, Sabine; Ellinghaus, Frank; Ellis, Katherine; Ellis, Nicolas; Elmsheuser, Johannes; Elsing, Markus; Emeliyanov, Dmitry; Enari, Yuji; Endner, Oliver Chris; Endo, Masaki; Engelmann, Roderich; Erdmann, Johannes; Ereditato, Antonio; Eriksson, Daniel; Ernis, Gunar; Ernst, Jesse; Ernst, Michael; Ernwein, Jean; Errede, Deborah; Errede, Steven; Ertel, Eugen; Escalier, Marc; Esch, Hendrik; Escobar, Carlos; Espinal Curull, Xavier; Esposito, Bellisario; Etienne, Francois; Etienvre, Anne-Isabelle; Etzion, Erez; Evangelakou, Despoina; Evans, Hal; Fabbri, Laura; Facini, Gabriel; Fakhrutdinov, Rinat; Falciano, Speranza; Fang, Yaquan; Fanti, Marcello; Farbin, Amir; Farilla, Addolorata; Farooque, Trisha; Farrell, Steven; Farrington, Sinead; Farthouat, Philippe; Fassi, Farida; Fassnacht, Patrick; Fassouliotis, Dimitrios; Fatholahzadeh, Baharak; Favareto, Andrea; Fayard, Louis; Federic, Pavol; Fedin, Oleg; Fedorko, Wojciech; Fehling-Kaschek, Mirjam; Feligioni, Lorenzo; Feng, Cunfeng; Feng, Eric; Feng, Haolu; Fenyuk, Alexander; Fernando, Waruna; Ferrag, Samir; Ferrando, James; Ferrara, Valentina; Ferrari, Arnaud; Ferrari, Pamela; Ferrari, Roberto; Ferreira de Lima, Danilo Enoque; Ferrer, Antonio; Ferrere, Didier; Ferretti, Claudio; Ferretto Parodi, Andrea; Fiascaris, Maria; Fiedler, Frank; Filipčič, Andrej; Filipuzzi, Marco; Filthaut, Frank; Fincke-Keeler, Margret; Finelli, Kevin Daniel; Fiolhais, Miguel; Fiorini, Luca; Firan, Ana; Fischer, Julia; Fisher, Matthew; Fitzgerald, Eric Andrew; Flechl, Martin; Fleck, Ivor; Fleischmann, Philipp; Fleischmann, Sebastian; Fletcher, Gareth Thomas; Fletcher, Gregory; Flick, Tobias; Floderus, Anders; Flores Castillo, Luis; Florez Bustos, Andres Carlos; Flowerdew, Michael; Fonseca Martin, Teresa; Formica, Andrea; Forti, Alessandra; Fortin, Dominique; Fournier, Daniel; Fox, Harald; Francavilla, Paolo; Franchini, Matteo; Franchino, Silvia; Francis, David; Franklin, Melissa; Franz, Sebastien; Fraternali, Marco; Fratina, Sasa; French, Sky; Friedrich, Conrad; Friedrich, Felix; Froidevaux, Daniel; Frost, James; Fukunaga, Chikara; Fullana Torregrosa, Esteban; Fulsom, Bryan Gregory; Fuster, Juan; Gabaldon, Carolina; Gabizon, Ofir; Gabrielli, Alessandro; Gabrielli, Andrea; Gadatsch, Stefan; Gadfort, Thomas; Gadomski, Szymon; Gagliardi, Guido; Gagnon, Pauline; Galea, Cristina; Galhardo, Bruno; Gallas, Elizabeth; Gallo, Valentina Santina; Gallop, Bruce; Gallus, Petr; Galster, Gorm Aske Gram Krohn; Gan, KK; Gandrajula, Reddy Pratap; Gao, Jun; Gao, Yongsheng; Garay Walls, Francisca; Garberson, Ford; García, Carmen; García Navarro, José Enrique; Garcia-Sciveres, Maurice; Gardner, Robert; Garelli, Nicoletta; Garonne, Vincent; Gatti, Claudio; Gaudio, Gabriella; Gaur, Bakul; Gauthier, Lea; Gauzzi, Paolo; Gavrilenko, Igor; Gay, Colin; Gaycken, Goetz; Gazis, Evangelos; Ge, Peng; Gecse, Zoltan; Gee, Norman; Geerts, Daniël Alphonsus Adrianus; Geich-Gimbel, Christoph; Gellerstedt, Karl; Gemme, Claudia; Gemmell, Alistair; Genest, Marie-Hélène; Gentile, Simonetta; George, Matthias; George, Simon; Gerbaudo, Davide; Gershon, Avi; Ghazlane, Hamid; Ghodbane, Nabil; Giacobbe, Benedetto; Giagu, Stefano; Giangiobbe, Vincent; Giannetti, Paola; Gianotti, Fabiola; Gibbard, Bruce; Gibson, Stephen; Gilchriese, Murdock; Gillam, Thomas; Gillberg, Dag; Gillman, Tony; Gingrich, Douglas; Giokaris, Nikos; Giordani, MarioPaolo; Giordano, Raffaele; Giorgi, Francesco Michelangelo; Giovannini, Paola; Giraud, Pierre-Francois; Giugni, Danilo; Giuliani, Claudia; Giunta, Michele; Gjelsten, Børge Kile; Gkialas, Ioannis; Gladilin, Leonid; Glasman, Claudia; Glatzer, Julian; Glazov, Alexandre; Glonti, George; Goblirsch-Kolb, Maximilian; Goddard, Jack Robert; Godfrey, Jennifer; Godlewski, Jan; Goeringer, Christian; Goldfarb, Steven; Golling, Tobias; Golubkov, Dmitry; Gomes, Agostinho; Gomez Fajardo, Luz Stella; Gonçalo, Ricardo; Goncalves Pinto Firmino Da Costa, Joao; Gonella, Laura; González de la Hoz, Santiago; Gonzalez Parra, Garoe; Gonzalez Silva, Laura; Gonzalez-Sevilla, Sergio; Goodson, Jeremiah Jet; Goossens, Luc; Gorbounov, Petr Andreevich; Gordon, Howard; Gorelov, Igor; Gorfine, Grant; Gorini, Benedetto; Gorini, Edoardo; Gorišek, Andrej; Gornicki, Edward; Goshaw, Alfred; Gössling, Claus; Gostkin, Mikhail Ivanovitch; Gouighri, Mohamed; Goujdami, Driss; Goulette, Marc Phillippe; Goussiou, Anna; Goy, Corinne; Gozpinar, Serdar; Grabas, Herve Marie Xavier; Graber, Lars; Grabowska-Bold, Iwona; Grafström, Per; Grahn, Karl-Johan; Gramling, Johanna; Gramstad, Eirik; Grancagnolo, Francesco; Grancagnolo, Sergio; Grassi, Valerio; Gratchev, Vadim; Gray, Heather; Gray, Julia Ann; Graziani, Enrico; Grebenyuk, Oleg; Greenwood, Zeno Dixon; Gregersen, Kristian; Gregor, Ingrid-Maria; Grenier, Philippe; Griffiths, Justin; Grigalashvili, Nugzar; Grillo, Alexander; Grimm, Kathryn; Grinstein, Sebastian; Gris, Philippe Luc Yves; Grishkevich, Yaroslav; Grivaz, Jean-Francois; Grohs, Johannes Philipp; Grohsjean, Alexander; Gross, Eilam; Grosse-Knetter, Joern; Grossi, Giulio Cornelio; Groth-Jensen, Jacob; Grout, Zara Jane; Grybel, Kai; Guescini, Francesco; Guest, Daniel; Gueta, Orel; Guicheney, Christophe; Guido, Elisa; Guillemin, Thibault; Guindon, Stefan; Gul, Umar; Gumpert, Christian; Gunther, Jaroslav; Guo, Jun; Gupta, Shaun; Gutierrez, Phillip; Gutierrez Ortiz, Nicolas Gilberto; Gutschow, Christian; Guttman, Nir; Guyot, Claude; Gwenlan, Claire; Gwilliam, Carl; Haas, Andy; Haber, Carl; Hadavand, Haleh Khani; Haefner, Petra; Hageboeck, Stephan; Hajduk, Zbigniew; Hakobyan, Hrachya; Haleem, Mahsana; Hall, David; Halladjian, Garabed; Hamacher, Klaus; Hamal, Petr; Hamano, Kenji; Hamer, Matthias; Hamilton, Andrew; Hamilton, Samuel; Han, Liang; Hanagaki, Kazunori; Hanawa, Keita; Hance, Michael; Hanke, Paul; Hansen, John Renner; Hansen, Jørgen Beck; Hansen, Jorn Dines; Hansen, Peter Henrik; Hansson, Per; Hara, Kazuhiko; Hard, Andrew; Harenberg, Torsten; Harkusha, Siarhei; Harper, Devin; Harrington, Robert; Harris, Orin; Harrison, Paul Fraser; Hartjes, Fred; Harvey, Alex; Hasegawa, Satoshi; Hasegawa, Yoji; Hassani, Samira; Haug, Sigve; Hauschild, Michael; Hauser, Reiner; Havranek, Miroslav; Hawkes, Christopher; Hawkings, Richard John; Hawkins, Anthony David; Hayashi, Takayasu; Hayden, Daniel; Hays, Chris; Hayward, Helen; Haywood, Stephen; Head, Simon; Heck, Tobias; Hedberg, Vincent; Heelan, Louise; Heim, Sarah; Heinemann, Beate; Heisterkamp, Simon; Hejbal, Jiri; Helary, Louis; Heller, Claudio; Heller, Matthieu; Hellman, Sten; Hellmich, Dennis; Helsens, Clement; Henderson, James; Henderson, Robert; Henrichs, Anna; Henriques Correia, Ana Maria; Henrot-Versille, Sophie; Hensel, Carsten; Herbert, Geoffrey Henry; Medina Hernandez, Carlos; Hernández Jiménez, Yesenia; Herrberg-Schubert, Ruth; Herten, Gregor; Hertenberger, Ralf; Hervas, Luis; Hesketh, Gavin Grant; Hessey, Nigel; Hickling, Robert; Higón-Rodriguez, Emilio; Hill, John; Hiller, Karl Heinz; Hillert, Sonja; Hillier, Stephen; Hinchliffe, Ian; Hines, Elizabeth; Hirose, Minoru; Hirschbuehl, Dominic; Hobbs, John; Hod, Noam; Hodgkinson, Mark; Hodgson, Paul; Hoecker, Andreas; Hoeferkamp, Martin; Hoffman, Julia; Hoffmann, Dirk; Hofmann, Julia Isabell; Hohlfeld, Marc; Holmes, Tova Ray; Hong, Tae Min; Hooft van Huysduynen, Loek; Hostachy, Jean-Yves; Hou, Suen; Hoummada, Abdeslam; Howard, Jacob; Howarth, James; Hrabovsky, Miroslav; Hristova, Ivana; Hrivnac, Julius; Hryn'ova, Tetiana; Hsu, Pai-hsien Jennifer; Hsu, Shih-Chieh; Hu, Diedi; Hu, Xueye; Huang, Yanping; Hubacek, Zdenek; Hubaut, Fabrice; Huegging, Fabian; Huettmann, Antje; Huffman, Todd Brian; Hughes, Emlyn; Hughes, Gareth; Huhtinen, Mika; Hülsing, Tobias Alexander; Hurwitz, Martina; Huseynov, Nazim; Huston, Joey; Huth, John; Iacobucci, Giuseppe; Iakovidis, Georgios; Ibragimov, Iskander; Iconomidou-Fayard, Lydia; Idarraga, John; Ideal, Emma; Iengo, Paolo; Igonkina, Olga; Iizawa, Tomoya; Ikegami, Yoichi; Ikematsu, Katsumasa; Ikeno, Masahiro; Iliadis, Dimitrios; Ilic, Nikolina; Inamaru, Yuki; Ince, Tayfun; Ioannou, Pavlos; Iodice, Mauro; Iordanidou, Kalliopi; Ippolito, Valerio; Irles Quiles, Adrian; Isaksson, Charlie; Ishino, Masaya; Ishitsuka, Masaki; Ishmukhametov, Renat; Issever, Cigdem; Istin, Serhat; Ivashin, Anton; Iwanski, Wieslaw; Iwasaki, Hiroyuki; Izen, Joseph; Izzo, Vincenzo; Jackson, Brett; Jackson, John; Jackson, Matthew; Jackson, Paul; Jaekel, Martin; Jain, Vivek; Jakobs, Karl; Jakobsen, Sune; Jakoubek, Tomas; Jakubek, Jan; Jamin, David Olivier; Jana, Dilip; Jansen, Eric; Jansen, Hendrik; Janssen, Jens; Janus, Michel; Jared, Richard; Jarlskog, Göran; Jeanty, Laura; Jeng, Geng-yuan; Jen-La Plante, Imai; Jennens, David; Jenni, Peter; Jentzsch, Jennifer; Jeske, Carl; Jézéquel, Stéphane; Jha, Manoj Kumar; Ji, Haoshuang; Ji, Weina; Jia, Jiangyong; Jiang, Yi; Jimenez Belenguer, Marcos; Jin, Shan; Jinaru, Adam; Jinnouchi, Osamu; Joergensen, Morten Dam; Joffe, David; Johansson, Erik; Johansson, Per; Johns, Kenneth; Jon-And, Kerstin; Jones, Graham; Jones, Roger; Jones, Tim; Jorge, Pedro; Joshi, Kiran Daniel; Jovicevic, Jelena; Ju, Xiangyang; Jung, Christian; Jungst, Ralph Markus; Jussel, Patrick; Juste Rozas, Aurelio; Kaci, Mohammed; Kaczmarska, Anna; Kadlecik, Peter; Kado, Marumi; Kagan, Harris; Kagan, Michael; Kajomovitz, Enrique; Kalinin, Sergey; Kama, Sami; Kanaya, Naoko; Kaneda, Michiru; Kaneti, Steven; Kanno, Takayuki; Kantserov, Vadim; Kanzaki, Junichi; Kaplan, Benjamin; Kapliy, Anton; Kar, Deepak; Karakostas, Konstantinos; Karastathis, Nikolaos; Karnevskiy, Mikhail; Karpov, Sergey; Karthik, Krishnaiyengar; Kartvelishvili, Vakhtang; Karyukhin, Andrey; Kashif, Lashkar; Kasieczka, Gregor; Kass, Richard; Kastanas, Alex; Kataoka, Yousuke; Katre, Akshay; Katzy, Judith; Kaushik, Venkatesh; Kawagoe, Kiyotomo; Kawamoto, Tatsuo; Kawamura, Gen; Kazama, Shingo; Kazanin, Vassili; Kazarinov, Makhail; Keeler, Richard; Keener, Paul; Kehoe, Robert; Keil, Markus; Keller, John; Keoshkerian, Houry; Kepka, Oldrich; Kerševan, Borut Paul; Kersten, Susanne; Kessoku, Kohei; Keung, Justin; Khalil-zada, Farkhad; Khandanyan, Hovhannes; Khanov, Alexander; Kharchenko, Dmitri; Khodinov, Alexander; Khomich, Andrei; Khoo, Teng Jian; Khoriauli, Gia; Khoroshilov, Andrey; Khovanskiy, Valery; Khramov, Evgeniy; Khubua, Jemal; Kim, Hyeon Jin; Kim, Shinhong; Kimura, Naoki; Kind, Oliver; King, Barry; King, Matthew; King, Robert Steven Beaufoy; King, Samuel Burton; Kirk, Julie; Kiryunin, Andrey; Kishimoto, Tomoe; Kisielewska, Danuta; Kitamura, Takumi; Kittelmann, Thomas; Kiuchi, Kenji; Kladiva, Eduard; Klein, Max; Klein, Uta; Kleinknecht, Konrad; Klimek, Pawel; Klimentov, Alexei; Klingenberg, Reiner; Klinger, Joel Alexander; Klinkby, Esben; Klioutchnikova, Tatiana; Klok, Peter; Kluge, Eike-Erik; Kluit, Peter; Kluth, Stefan; Kneringer, Emmerich; Knoops, Edith; Knue, Andrea; Kobayashi, Tomio; Kobel, Michael; Kocian, Martin; Kodys, Peter; Koenig, Sebastian; Koevesarki, Peter; Koffas, Thomas; Koffeman, Els; Kogan, Lucy Anne; Kohlmann, Simon; Kohout, Zdenek; Kohriki, Takashi; Koi, Tatsumi; Kolanoski, Hermann; Koletsou, Iro; Koll, James; Komar, Aston; Komori, Yuto; Kondo, Takahiko; Köneke, Karsten; König, Adriaan; Kono, Takanori; Konoplich, Rostislav; Konstantinidis, Nikolaos; Kopeliansky, Revital; Koperny, Stefan; Köpke, Lutz; Kopp, Anna Katharina; Korcyl, Krzysztof; Kordas, Kostantinos; Korn, Andreas; Korol, Aleksandr; Korolkov, Ilya; Korolkova, Elena; Korotkov, Vladislav; Kortner, Oliver; Kortner, Sandra; Kostyukhin, Vadim; Kotov, Sergey; Kotov, Vladislav; Kotwal, Ashutosh; Kourkoumelis, Christine; Kouskoura, Vasiliki; Koutsman, Alex; Kowalewski, Robert Victor; Kowalski, Tadeusz; Kozanecki, Witold; Kozhin, Anatoly; Kral, Vlastimil; Kramarenko, Viktor; Kramberger, Gregor; Krasny, Mieczyslaw Witold; Krasznahorkay, Attila; Kraus, Jana; Kravchenko, Anton; Kreiss, Sven; Kretzschmar, Jan; Kreutzfeldt, Kristof; Krieger, Nina; Krieger, Peter; Kroeninger, Kevin; Kroha, Hubert; Kroll, Joe; Kroseberg, Juergen; Krstic, Jelena; Kruchonak, Uladzimir; Krüger, Hans; Kruker, Tobias; Krumnack, Nils; Krumshteyn, Zinovii; Kruse, Amanda; Kruse, Mark; Kruskal, Michael; Kubota, Takashi; Kuday, Sinan; Kuehn, Susanne; Kugel, Andreas; Kuhl, Thorsten; Kukhtin, Victor; Kulchitsky, Yuri; Kuleshov, Sergey; Kuna, Marine; Kunkle, Joshua; Kupco, Alexander; Kurashige, Hisaya; Kurata, Masakazu; Kurochkin, Yurii; Kurumida, Rie; Kus, Vlastimil; Kuwertz, Emma Sian; Kuze, Masahiro; Kvita, Jiri; Kwee, Regina; La Rosa, Alessandro; La Rotonda, Laura; Labarga, Luis; Lablak, Said; Lacasta, Carlos; Lacava, Francesco; Lacey, James; Lacker, Heiko; Lacour, Didier; Lacuesta, Vicente Ramón; Ladygin, Evgueni; Lafaye, Remi; Laforge, Bertrand; Lagouri, Theodota; Lai, Stanley; Laier, Heiko; Laisne, Emmanuel; Lambourne, Luke; Lampen, Caleb; Lampl, Walter; Lançon, Eric; Landgraf, Ulrich; Landon, Murrough; Lang, Valerie Susanne; Lange, Clemens; Lankford, Andrew; Lanni, Francesco; Lantzsch, Kerstin; Lanza, Agostino; Laplace, Sandrine; Lapoire, Cecile; Laporte, Jean-Francois; Lari, Tommaso; Larner, Aimee; Lassnig, Mario; Laurelli, Paolo; Lavorini, Vincenzo; Lavrijsen, Wim; Laycock, Paul; Le, Bao Tran; Le Dortz, Olivier; Le Guirriec, Emmanuel; Le Menedeu, Eve; LeCompte, Thomas; Ledroit-Guillon, Fabienne Agnes Marie; Lee, Claire Alexandra; Lee, Hurng-Chun; Lee, Jason; Lee, Shih-Chang; Lee, Lawrence; Lefebvre, Guillaume; Lefebvre, Michel; Legger, Federica; Leggett, Charles; Lehan, Allan; Lehmacher, Marc; Lehmann Miotto, Giovanna; Leister, Andrew Gerard; Leite, Marco Aurelio Lisboa; Leitner, Rupert; Lellouch, Daniel; Lemmer, Boris; Lendermann, Victor; Leney, Katharine; Lenz, Tatjana; Lenzen, Georg; Lenzi, Bruno; Leone, Robert; Leonhardt, Kathrin; Leontsinis, Stefanos; Leroy, Claude; Lessard, Jean-Raphael; Lester, Christopher; Lester, Christopher Michael; Levêque, Jessica; Levin, Daniel; Levinson, Lorne; Lewis, Adrian; Lewis, George; Leyko, Agnieszka; Leyton, Michael; Li, Bing; Li, Bo; Li, Haifeng; Li, Ho Ling; Li, Shu; Li, Xuefei; Liang, Zhijun; Liao, Hongbo; Liberti, Barbara; Lichard, Peter; Lie, Ki; Liebal, Jessica; Liebig, Wolfgang; Limbach, Christian; Limosani, Antonio; Limper, Maaike; Lin, Simon; Linde, Frank; Lindquist, Brian Edward; Linnemann, James; Lipeles, Elliot; Lipniacka, Anna; Lisovyi, Mykhailo; Liss, Tony; Lissauer, David; Lister, Alison; Litke, Alan; Liu, Bo; Liu, Dong; Liu, Jianbei; Liu, Kun; Liu, Lulu; Liu, Miaoyuan; Liu, Minghui; Liu, Yanwen; Livan, Michele; Livermore, Sarah; Lleres, Annick; Llorente Merino, Javier; Lloyd, Stephen; Lo Sterzo, Francesco; Lobodzinska, Ewelina; Loch, Peter; Lockman, William; Loddenkoetter, Thomas; Loebinger, Fred; Loevschall-Jensen, Ask Emil; Loginov, Andrey; Loh, Chang Wei; Lohse, Thomas; Lohwasser, Kristin; Lokajicek, Milos; Lombardo, Vincenzo Paolo; Long, Jonathan; Long, Robin Eamonn; Lopes, Lourenco; Lopez Mateos, David; Lopez Paredes, Brais; Lorenz, Jeanette; Lorenzo Martinez, Narei; Losada, Marta; Loscutoff, Peter; Losty, Michael; Lou, XinChou; Lounis, Abdenour; Love, Jeremy; Love, Peter; Lowe, Andrew; Lu, Feng; Lubatti, Henry; Luci, Claudio; Lucotte, Arnaud; Ludwig, Dörthe; Ludwig, Inga; Luehring, Frederick; Lukas, Wolfgang; Luminari, Lamberto; Lund, Esben; Lundberg, Johan; Lundberg, Olof; Lund-Jensen, Bengt; Lungwitz, Matthias; Lynn, David; Lysak, Roman; Lytken, Else; Ma, Hong; Ma, Lian Liang; Maccarrone, Giovanni; Macchiolo, Anna; Maček, Boštjan; Machado Miguens, Joana; Macina, Daniela; Mackeprang, Rasmus; Madar, Romain; Madaras, Ronald; Maddocks, Harvey Jonathan; Mader, Wolfgang; Madsen, Alexander; Maeno, Mayuko; Maeno, Tadashi; Magnoni, Luca; Magradze, Erekle; Mahboubi, Kambiz; Mahlstedt, Joern; Mahmoud, Sara; Mahout, Gilles; Maiani, Camilla; Maidantchik, Carmen; Maio, Amélia; Majewski, Stephanie; Makida, Yasuhiro; Makovec, Nikola; Mal, Prolay; Malaescu, Bogdan; Malecki, Pawel; Maleev, Victor; Malek, Fairouz; Mallik, Usha; Malon, David; Malone, Caitlin; Maltezos, Stavros; Malyshev, Vladimir; Malyukov, Sergei; Mamuzic, Judita; Mandelli, Luciano; Mandić, Igor; Mandrysch, Rocco; Maneira, José; Manfredini, Alessandro; Manhaes de Andrade Filho, Luciano; Manjarres Ramos, Joany Andreina; Mann, Alexander; Manning, Peter; Manousakis-Katsikakis, Arkadios; Mansoulie, Bruno; Mantifel, Rodger; Mapelli, Livio; March, Luis; Marchand, Jean-Francois; Marchese, Fabrizio; Marchiori, Giovanni; Marcisovsky, Michal; Marino, Christopher; Marques, Carlos; Marroquim, Fernando; Marshall, Zach; Marti, Lukas Fritz; Marti-Garcia, Salvador; Martin, Brian; Martin, Brian Thomas; Martin, Jean-Pierre; Martin, Tim; Martin, Victoria Jane; Martin dit Latour, Bertrand; Martinez, Homero; Martinez, Mario; Martin-Haugh, Stewart; Martyniuk, Alex; Marx, Marilyn; Marzano, Francesco; Marzin, Antoine; Masetti, Lucia; Mashimo, Tetsuro; Mashinistov, Ruslan; Masik, Jiri; Maslennikov, Alexey; Massa, Ignazio; Massol, Nicolas; Mastrandrea, Paolo; Mastroberardino, Anna; Masubuchi, Tatsuya; Matsunaga, Hiroyuki; Matsushita, Takashi; Mättig, Peter; Mättig, Stefan; Mattmann, Johannes; Mattravers, Carly; Maurer, Julien; Maxfield, Stephen; Maximov, Dmitriy; Mazini, Rachid; Mazzaferro, Luca; Mazzanti, Marcello; Mc Goldrick, Garrin; Mc Kee, Shawn Patrick; McCarn, Allison; McCarthy, Robert; McCarthy, Tom; McCubbin, Norman; McFarlane, Kenneth; Mcfayden, Josh; Mchedlidze, Gvantsa; Mclaughlan, Tom; McMahon, Steve; McPherson, Robert; Meade, Andrew; Mechnich, Joerg; Mechtel, Markus; Medinnis, Mike; Meehan, Samuel; Meera-Lebbai, Razzak; Mehlhase, Sascha; Mehta, Andrew; Meier, Karlheinz; Meineck, Christian; Meirose, Bernhard; Melachrinos, Constantinos; Mellado Garcia, Bruce Rafael; Meloni, Federico; Mendoza Navas, Luis; Mengarelli, Alberto; Menke, Sven; Meoni, Evelin; Mercurio, Kevin Michael; Mergelmeyer, Sebastian; Meric, Nicolas; Mermod, Philippe; Merola, Leonardo; Meroni, Chiara; Merritt, Frank; Merritt, Hayes; Messina, Andrea; Metcalfe, Jessica; Mete, Alaettin Serhan; Meyer, Carsten; Meyer, Christopher; Meyer, Jean-Pierre; Meyer, Jochen; Meyer, Joerg; Michal, Sebastien; Middleton, Robin; Migas, Sylwia; Mijović, Liza; Mikenberg, Giora; Mikestikova, Marcela; Mikuž, Marko; Miller, David; Mills, Corrinne; Milov, Alexander; Milstead, David; Milstein, Dmitry; Minaenko, Andrey; Miñano Moya, Mercedes; Minashvili, Irakli; Mincer, Allen; Mindur, Bartosz; Mineev, Mikhail; Ming, Yao; Mir, Lluisa-Maria; Mirabelli, Giovanni; Mitani, Takashi; Mitrevski, Jovan; Mitsou, Vasiliki A; Mitsui, Shingo; Miyagawa, Paul; Mjörnmark, Jan-Ulf; Moa, Torbjoern; Moeller, Victoria; Mohapatra, Soumya; Mohr, Wolfgang; Molander, Simon; Moles-Valls, Regina; Molfetas, Angelos; Mönig, Klaus; Monini, Caterina; Monk, James; Monnier, Emmanuel; Montejo Berlingen, Javier; Monticelli, Fernando; Monzani, Simone; Moore, Roger; Mora Herrera, Clemencia; Moraes, Arthur; Morange, Nicolas; Morel, Julien; Moreno, Deywis; Moreno Llácer, María; Morettini, Paolo; Morgenstern, Marcus; Morii, Masahiro; Moritz, Sebastian; Morley, Anthony Keith; Mornacchi, Giuseppe; Morris, John; Morvaj, Ljiljana; Moser, Hans-Guenther; Mosidze, Maia; Moss, Josh; Mount, Richard; Mountricha, Eleni; Mouraviev, Sergei; Moyse, Edward; Mudd, Richard; Mueller, Felix; Mueller, James; Mueller, Klemens; Mueller, Thibaut; Mueller, Timo; Muenstermann, Daniel; Munwes, Yonathan; Murillo Quijada, Javier Alberto; Murray, Bill; Mussche, Ido; Musto, Elisa; Myagkov, Alexey; Myska, Miroslav; Nackenhorst, Olaf; Nadal, Jordi; Nagai, Koichi; Nagai, Ryo; Nagai, Yoshikazu; Nagano, Kunihiro; Nagarkar, Advait; Nagasaka, Yasushi; Nagel, Martin; Nairz, Armin Michael; Nakahama, Yu; Nakamura, Koji; Nakamura, Tomoaki; Nakano, Itsuo; Namasivayam, Harisankar; Nanava, Gizo; Napier, Austin; Narayan, Rohin; Nash, Michael; Nattermann, Till; Naumann, Thomas; Navarro, Gabriela; Neal, Homer; Nechaeva, Polina; Neep, Thomas James; Negri, Andrea; Negri, Guido; Negrini, Matteo; Nektarijevic, Snezana; Nelson, Andrew; Nelson, Timothy Knight; Nemecek, Stanislav; Nemethy, Peter; Nepomuceno, Andre Asevedo; Nessi, Marzio; Neubauer, Mark; Neumann, Manuel; Neusiedl, Andrea; Neves, Ricardo; Nevski, Pavel; Newcomer, Mitchel; Newman, Paul; Nguyen, Duong Hai; Nguyen Thi Hong, Van; Nickerson, Richard; Nicolaidou, Rosy; Nicquevert, Bertrand; Nielsen, Jason; Nikiforou, Nikiforos; Nikiforov, Andriy; Nikolaenko, Vladimir; Nikolic-Audit, Irena; Nikolics, Katalin; Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos; Nilsson, Paul; Ninomiya, Yoichi; Nisati, Aleandro; Nisius, Richard; Nobe, Takuya; Nodulman, Lawrence; Nomachi, Masaharu; Nomidis, Ioannis; Norberg, Scarlet; Nordberg, Markus; Novakova, Jana; Nozaki, Mitsuaki; Nozka, Libor; Ntekas, Konstantinos; Nuncio-Quiroz, Adriana-Elizabeth; Nunes Hanninger, Guilherme; Nunnemann, Thomas; Nurse, Emily; O'Brien, Brendan Joseph; O'grady, Fionnbarr; O'Neil, Dugan; O'Shea, Val; Oakes, Louise Beth; Oakham, Gerald; Oberlack, Horst; Ocariz, Jose; Ochi, Atsuhiko; Ochoa, Ines; Oda, Susumu; Odaka, Shigeru; Ogren, Harold; Oh, Alexander; Oh, Seog; Ohm, Christian; Ohshima, Takayoshi; Okamura, Wataru; Okawa, Hideki; Okumura, Yasuyuki; Okuyama, Toyonobu; Olariu, Albert; Olchevski, Alexander; Olivares Pino, Sebastian Andres; Oliveira, Miguel Alfonso; Oliveira Damazio, Denis; Oliver Garcia, Elena; Olivito, Dominick; Olszewski, Andrzej; Olszowska, Jolanta; Onofre, António; Onyisi, Peter; Oram, Christopher; Oreglia, Mark; Oren, Yona; Orestano, Domizia; Orlando, Nicola; Oropeza Barrera, Cristina; Orr, Robert; Osculati, Bianca; Ospanov, Rustem; Otero y Garzon, Gustavo; Otono, Hidetoshi; Ouchrif, Mohamed; Ouellette, Eric; Ould-Saada, Farid; Ouraou, Ahmimed; Oussoren, Koen Pieter; Ouyang, Qun; Ovcharova, Ana; Owen, Mark; Owen, Simon; Ozcan, Veysi Erkcan; Ozturk, Nurcan; Pachal, Katherine; Pacheco Pages, Andres; Padilla Aranda, Cristobal; Pagan Griso, Simone; Paganis, Efstathios; Pahl, Christoph; Paige, Frank; Pais, Preema; Pajchel, Katarina; Palacino, Gabriel; Palestini, Sandro; Pallin, Dominique; Palma, Alberto; Palmer, Jody; Pan, Yibin; Panagiotopoulou, Evgenia; Panduro Vazquez, William; Pani, Priscilla; Panikashvili, Natalia; Panitkin, Sergey; Pantea, Dan; Papadopoulou, Theodora; Papageorgiou, Konstantinos; Paramonov, Alexander; Paredes Hernandez, Daniela; Parker, Michael Andrew; Parodi, Fabrizio; Parsons, John; Parzefall, Ulrich; Pashapour, Shabnaz; Pasqualucci, Enrico; Passaggio, Stefano; Passeri, Antonio; Pastore, Fernanda; Pastore, Francesca; Pásztor, Gabriella; Pataraia, Sophio; Patel, Nikhul; Pater, Joleen; Patricelli, Sergio; Pauly, Thilo; Pearce, James; Pedersen, Maiken; Pedraza Lopez, Sebastian; Pedro, Rute; Peleganchuk, Sergey; Pelikan, Daniel; Peng, Haiping; Penning, Bjoern; Penwell, John; Perepelitsa, Dennis; Perez Cavalcanti, Tiago; Perez Codina, Estel; Pérez García-Estañ, María Teresa; Perez Reale, Valeria; Perini, Laura; Pernegger, Heinz; Perrino, Roberto; Peschke, Richard; Peshekhonov, Vladimir; Peters, Krisztian; Peters, Yvonne; Petersen, Brian; Petersen, Jorgen; Petersen, Troels; Petit, Elisabeth; Petridis, Andreas; Petridou, Chariclia; Petrolo, Emilio; Petrucci, Fabrizio; Petteni, Michele; Pezoa, Raquel; Phillips, Peter William; Piacquadio, Giacinto; Pianori, Elisabetta; Picazio, Attilio; Piccaro, Elisa; Piccinini, Maurizio; Piec, Sebastian Marcin; Piegaia, Ricardo; Pignotti, David; Pilcher, James; Pilkington, Andrew; Pina, João Antonio; Pinamonti, Michele; Pinder, Alex; Pinfold, James; Pingel, Almut; Pinto, Belmiro; Pizio, Caterina; Pleier, Marc-Andre; Pleskot, Vojtech; Plotnikova, Elena; Plucinski, Pawel; Poddar, Sahill; Podlyski, Fabrice; Poettgen, Ruth; Poggioli, Luc; Pohl, David-leon; Pohl, Martin; Polesello, Giacomo; Policicchio, Antonio; Polifka, Richard; Polini, Alessandro; Pollard, Christopher Samuel; Polychronakos, Venetios; Pomeroy, Daniel; Pommès, Kathy; Pontecorvo, Ludovico; Pope, Bernard; Popeneciu, Gabriel Alexandru; Popovic, Dragan; Poppleton, Alan; Portell Bueso, Xavier; Pospelov, Guennady; Pospisil, Stanislav; Potamianos, Karolos; Potrap, Igor; Potter, Christina; Potter, Christopher; Poulard, Gilbert; Poveda, Joaquin; Pozdnyakov, Valery; Prabhu, Robindra; Pralavorio, Pascal; Pranko, Aliaksandr; Prasad, Srivas; Pravahan, Rishiraj; Prell, Soeren; Price, Darren; Price, Joe; Price, Lawrence; Prieur, Damien; Primavera, Margherita; Proissl, Manuel; Prokofiev, Kirill; Prokoshin, Fedor; Protopapadaki, Eftychia-sofia; Protopopescu, Serban; Proudfoot, James; Prudent, Xavier; Przybycien, Mariusz; Przysiezniak, Helenka; Psoroulas, Serena; Ptacek, Elizabeth; Pueschel, Elisa; Puldon, David; Purohit, Milind; Puzo, Patrick; Pylypchenko, Yuriy; Qian, Jianming; Quadt, Arnulf; Quarrie, David; Quayle, William; Quilty, Donnchadha; Radeka, Veljko; Radescu, Voica; Radhakrishnan, Sooraj Krishnan; Radloff, Peter; Ragusa, Francesco; Rahal, Ghita; Rajagopalan, Srinivasan; Rammensee, Michael; Rammes, Marcus; Randle-Conde, Aidan Sean; Rangel-Smith, Camila; Rao, Kanury; Rauscher, Felix; Rave, Tobias Christian; Ravenscroft, Thomas; Raymond, Michel; Read, Alexander Lincoln; Rebuzzi, Daniela; Redelbach, Andreas; Redlinger, George; Reece, Ryan; Reeves, Kendall; Reinsch, Andreas; Reisin, Hernan; Reisinger, Ingo; Relich, Matthew; Rembser, Christoph; Ren, Zhongliang; Renaud, Adrien; Rescigno, Marco; Resconi, Silvia; Resende, Bernardo; Reznicek, Pavel; Rezvani, Reyhaneh; Richter, Robert; Ridel, Melissa; Rieck, Patrick; Rijssenbeek, Michael; Rimoldi, Adele; Rinaldi, Lorenzo; Ritsch, Elmar; Riu, Imma; Rivoltella, Giancesare; Rizatdinova, Flera; Rizvi, Eram; Robertson, Steven; Robichaud-Veronneau, Andree; Robinson, Dave; Robinson, James; Robson, Aidan; Rocha de Lima, Jose Guilherme; Roda, Chiara; Roda Dos Santos, Denis; Rodrigues, Luis; Roe, Shaun; Røhne, Ole; Rolli, Simona; Romaniouk, Anatoli; Romano, Marino; Romeo, Gaston; Romero Adam, Elena; Rompotis, Nikolaos; Roos, Lydia; Ros, Eduardo; Rosati, Stefano; Rosbach, Kilian; Rose, Anthony; Rose, Matthew; Rosendahl, Peter Lundgaard; Rosenthal, Oliver; Rossetti, Valerio; Rossi, Elvira; Rossi, Leonardo Paolo; Rosten, Rachel; Rotaru, Marina; Roth, Itamar; Rothberg, Joseph; Rousseau, David; Royon, Christophe; Rozanov, Alexandre; Rozen, Yoram; Ruan, Xifeng; Rubbo, Francesco; Rubinskiy, Igor; Rud, Viacheslav; Rudolph, Christian; Rudolph, Matthew Scott; Rühr, Frederik; Ruiz-Martinez, Aranzazu; Rumyantsev, Leonid; Rurikova, Zuzana; Rusakovich, Nikolai; Ruschke, Alexander; Rutherfoord, John; Ruthmann, Nils; Ruzicka, Pavel; Ryabov, Yury; Rybar, Martin; Rybkin, Grigori; Ryder, Nick; Saavedra, Aldo; Sacerdoti, Sabrina; Saddique, Asif; Sadeh, Iftach; Sadrozinski, Hartmut; Sadykov, Renat; Safai Tehrani, Francesco; Sakamoto, Hiroshi; Sakurai, Yuki; Salamanna, Giuseppe; Salamon, Andrea; Saleem, Muhammad; Salek, David; Sales De Bruin, Pedro Henrique; Salihagic, Denis; Salnikov, Andrei; Salt, José; Salvachua Ferrando, Belén; Salvatore, Daniela; Salvatore, Pasquale Fabrizio; Salvucci, Antonio; Salzburger, Andreas; Sampsonidis, Dimitrios; Sanchez, Arturo; Sánchez, Javier; Sanchez Martinez, Victoria; Sandaker, Heidi; Sander, Heinz Georg; Sanders, Michiel; Sandhoff, Marisa; Sandoval, Tanya; Sandoval, Carlos; Sandstroem, Rikard; Sankey, Dave; Sansoni, Andrea; Santoni, Claudio; Santonico, Rinaldo; Santos, Helena; Santoyo Castillo, Itzebelt; Sapp, Kevin; Sapronov, Andrey; Saraiva, João; Sarkisyan-Grinbaum, Edward; Sarrazin, Bjorn; Sartisohn, Georg; Sasaki, Osamu; Sasaki, Yuichi; Sasao, Noboru; Satsounkevitch, Igor; Sauvage, Gilles; Sauvan, Emmanuel; Sauvan, Jean-Baptiste; Savard, Pierre; Savinov, Vladimir; Savu, Dan Octavian; Sawyer, Craig; Sawyer, Lee; Saxon, David; Saxon, James; Sbarra, Carla; Sbrizzi, Antonio; Scanlon, Tim; Scannicchio, Diana; Scarcella, Mark; Schaarschmidt, Jana; Schacht, Peter; Schaefer, Douglas; Schaelicke, Andreas; Schaepe, Steffen; Schaetzel, Sebastian; Schäfer, Uli; Schaffer, Arthur; Schaile, Dorothee; Schamberger, R. Dean; Scharf, Veit; Schegelsky, Valery; Scheirich, Daniel; Schernau, Michael; Scherzer, Max; Schiavi, Carlo; Schieck, Jochen; Schillo, Christian; Schioppa, Marco; Schlenker, Stefan; Schmidt, Evelyn; Schmieden, Kristof; Schmitt, Christian; Schmitt, Christopher; Schmitt, Sebastian; Schneider, Basil; Schnellbach, Yan Jie; Schnoor, Ulrike; Schoeffel, Laurent; Schoening, Andre; Schoenrock, Bradley Daniel; Schorlemmer, Andre Lukas; Schott, Matthias; Schouten, Doug; Schovancova, Jaroslava; Schram, Malachi; Schramm, Steven; Schreyer, Manuel; Schroeder, Christian; Schroer, Nicolai; Schuh, Natascha; Schultens, Martin Johannes; Schultz-Coulon, Hans-Christian; Schulz, Holger; Schumacher, Markus; Schumm, Bruce; Schune, Philippe; Schwartzman, Ariel; Schwegler, Philipp; Schwemling, Philippe; Schwienhorst, Reinhard; Schwindling, Jerome; Schwindt, Thomas; Schwoerer, Maud; Sciacca, Gianfranco; Scifo, Estelle; Sciolla, Gabriella; Scott, Bill; Scutti, Federico; Searcy, Jacob; Sedov, George; Sedykh, Evgeny; Seidel, Sally; Seiden, Abraham; Seifert, Frank; Seixas, José; Sekhniaidze, Givi; Sekula, Stephen; Selbach, Karoline Elfriede; Seliverstov, Dmitry; Sellers, Graham; Seman, Michal; Semprini-Cesari, Nicola; Serfon, Cedric; Serin, Laurent; Serkin, Leonid; Serre, Thomas; Seuster, Rolf; Severini, Horst; Sforza, Federico; Sfyrla, Anna; Shabalina, Elizaveta; Shamim, Mansoora; Shan, Lianyou; Shank, James; Shao, Qi Tao; Shapiro, Marjorie; Shatalov, Pavel; Shaw, Kate; Sherwood, Peter; Shimizu, Shima; Shimojima, Makoto; Shin, Taeksu; Shiyakova, Mariya; Shmeleva, Alevtina; Shochet, Mel; Short, Daniel; Shrestha, Suyog; Shulga, Evgeny; Shupe, Michael; Shushkevich, Stanislav; Sicho, Petr; Sidorov, Dmitri; Sidoti, Antonio; Siegert, Frank; Sijacki, Djordje; Silbert, Ohad; Silva, José; Silver, Yiftah; Silverstein, Daniel; Silverstein, Samuel; Simak, Vladislav; Simard, Olivier; Simic, Ljiljana; Simion, Stefan; Simioni, Eduard; Simmons, Brinick; Simoniello, Rosa; Simonyan, Margar; Sinervo, Pekka; Sinev, Nikolai; Sipica, Valentin; Siragusa, Giovanni; Sircar, Anirvan; Sisakyan, Alexei; Sivoklokov, Serguei; Sjölin, Jörgen; Sjursen, Therese; Skinnari, Louise Anastasia; Skottowe, Hugh Philip; Skovpen, Kirill; Skubic, Patrick; Slater, Mark; Slavicek, Tomas; Sliwa, Krzysztof; Smakhtin, Vladimir; Smart, Ben; Smestad, Lillian; Smirnov, Sergei; Smirnov, Yury; Smirnova, Lidia; Smirnova, Oxana; Smith, Kenway; Smizanska, Maria; Smolek, Karel; Snesarev, Andrei; Snidero, Giacomo; Snow, Joel; Snyder, Scott; Sobie, Randall; Socher, Felix; Sodomka, Jaromir; Soffer, Abner; Soh, Dart-yin; Solans, Carlos; Solar, Michael; Solc, Jaroslav; Soldatov, Evgeny; Soldevila, Urmila; Solfaroli Camillocci, Elena; Solodkov, Alexander; Solovyanov, Oleg; Solovyev, Victor; Soni, Nitesh; Sood, Alexander; Sopko, Vit; Sopko, Bruno; Sosebee, Mark; Soualah, Rachik; Soueid, Paul; Soukharev, Andrey; South, David; Spagnolo, Stefania; Spanò, Francesco; Spearman, William Robert; Spighi, Roberto; Spigo, Giancarlo; Spousta, Martin; Spreitzer, Teresa; Spurlock, Barry; St Denis, Richard Dante; Stahlman, Jonathan; Stamen, Rainer; Stanecka, Ewa; Stanek, Robert; Stanescu, Cristian; Stanescu-Bellu, Madalina; Stanitzki, Marcel Michael; Stapnes, Steinar; Starchenko, Evgeny; Stark, Jan; Staroba, Pavel; Starovoitov, Pavel; Staszewski, Rafal; Stavina, Pavel; Steele, Genevieve; Steinbach, Peter; Steinberg, Peter; Stekl, Ivan; Stelzer, Bernd; Stelzer, Harald Joerg; Stelzer-Chilton, Oliver; Stenzel, Hasko; Stern, Sebastian; Stewart, Graeme; Stillings, Jan Andre; Stockton, Mark; Stoebe, Michael; Stoerig, Kathrin; Stoicea, Gabriel; Stonjek, Stefan; Stradling, Alden; Straessner, Arno; Strandberg, Jonas; Strandberg, Sara; Strandlie, Are; Strauss, Emanuel; Strauss, Michael; Strizenec, Pavol; Ströhmer, Raimund; Strom, David; Stroynowski, Ryszard; Stucci, Stefania Antonia; Stugu, Bjarne; Stumer, Iuliu; Stupak, John; Sturm, Philipp; Styles, Nicholas Adam; Su, Dong; Su, Jun; Subramania, Halasya Siva; Subramaniam, Rajivalochan; Succurro, Antonella; Sugaya, Yorihito; Suhr, Chad; Suk, Michal; Sulin, Vladimir; Sultansoy, Saleh; Sumida, Toshi; Sun, Xiaohu; Sundermann, Jan Erik; Suruliz, Kerim; Susinno, Giancarlo; Sutton, Mark; Suzuki, Yu; Svatos, Michal; Swedish, Stephen; Swiatlowski, Maximilian; Sykora, Ivan; Sykora, Tomas; Ta, Duc; Tackmann, Kerstin; Taenzer, Joe; Taffard, Anyes; Tafirout, Reda; Taiblum, Nimrod; Takahashi, Yuta; Takai, Helio; Takashima, Ryuichi; Takeda, Hiroshi; Takeshita, Tohru; Takubo, Yosuke; Talby, Mossadek; Talyshev, Alexey; Tam, Jason; Tamsett, Matthew; Tan, Kong Guan; Tanaka, Junichi; Tanaka, Reisaburo; Tanaka, Satoshi; Tanaka, Shuji; Tanasijczuk, Andres Jorge; Tani, Kazutoshi; Tannoury, Nancy; Tapprogge, Stefan; Tarem, Shlomit; Tarrade, Fabien; Tartarelli, Giuseppe Francesco; Tas, Petr; Tasevsky, Marek; Tashiro, Takuya; Tassi, Enrico; Tavares Delgado, Ademar; Tayalati, Yahya; Taylor, Christopher; Taylor, Frank; Taylor, Geoffrey; Taylor, Wendy; Teischinger, Florian Alfred; Teixeira Dias Castanheira, Matilde; Teixeira-Dias, Pedro; Temming, Kim Katrin; Ten Kate, Herman; Teng, Ping-Kun; Terada, Susumu; Terashi, Koji; Terron, Juan; Terzo, Stefano; Testa, Marianna; Teuscher, Richard; Therhaag, Jan; Theveneaux-Pelzer, Timothée; Thoma, Sascha; Thomas, Juergen; Thompson, Emily; Thompson, Paul; Thompson, Peter; Thompson, Stan; Thomsen, Lotte Ansgaard; Thomson, Evelyn; Thomson, Mark; Thong, Wai Meng; Thun, Rudolf; Tian, Feng; Tibbetts, Mark James; Tic, Tomáš; Tikhomirov, Vladimir; Tikhonov, Yury; Timoshenko, Sergey; Tiouchichine, Elodie; Tipton, Paul; Tisserant, Sylvain; Todorov, Theodore; Todorova-Nova, Sharka; Toggerson, Brokk; Tojo, Junji; Tokár, Stanislav; Tokushuku, Katsuo; Tollefson, Kirsten; Tomlinson, Lee; Tomoto, Makoto; Tompkins, Lauren; Toms, Konstantin; Topilin, Nikolai; Torrence, Eric; Torres, Heberth; Torró Pastor, Emma; Toth, Jozsef; Touchard, Francois; Tovey, Daniel; Tran, Huong Lan; Trefzger, Thomas; Tremblet, Louis; Tricoli, Alessandro; Trigger, Isabel Marian; Trincaz-Duvoid, Sophie; Tripiana, Martin; Triplett, Nathan; Trischuk, William; Trocmé, Benjamin; Troncon, Clara; Trottier-McDonald, Michel; Trovatelli, Monica; True, Patrick; Trzebinski, Maciej; Trzupek, Adam; Tsarouchas, Charilaos; Tseng, Jeffrey; Tsiareshka, Pavel; Tsionou, Dimitra; Tsipolitis, Georgios; Tsirintanis, Nikolaos; Tsiskaridze, Shota; Tsiskaridze, Vakhtang; Tskhadadze, Edisher; Tsukerman, Ilya; Tsulaia, Vakhtang; Tsung, Jieh-Wen; Tsuno, Soshi; Tsybychev, Dmitri; Tua, Alan; Tudorache, Alexandra; Tudorache, Valentina; Tuggle, Joseph; Tuna, Alexander Naip; Tupputi, Salvatore; Turchikhin, Semen; Turecek, Daniel; Turk Cakir, Ilkay; Turra, Ruggero; Tuts, Michael; Tykhonov, Andrii; Tylmad, Maja; Tyndel, Mike; Uchida, Kirika; Ueda, Ikuo; Ueno, Ryuichi; Ughetto, Michael; Ugland, Maren; Uhlenbrock, Mathias; Ukegawa, Fumihiko; Unal, Guillaume; Undrus, Alexander; Unel, Gokhan; Ungaro, Francesca; Unno, Yoshinobu; Urbaniec, Dustin; Urquijo, Phillip; Usai, Giulio; Usanova, Anna; Vacavant, Laurent; Vacek, Vaclav; Vachon, Brigitte; Valencic, Nika; Valentinetti, Sara; Valero, Alberto; Valery, Loic; Valkar, Stefan; Valladolid Gallego, Eva; Vallecorsa, Sofia; Valls Ferrer, Juan Antonio; Van Berg, Richard; Van Der Deijl, Pieter; van der Geer, Rogier; van der Graaf, Harry; Van Der Leeuw, Robin; van der Ster, Daniel; van Eldik, Niels; van Gemmeren, Peter; Van Nieuwkoop, Jacobus; van Vulpen, Ivo; van Woerden, Marius Cornelis; Vanadia, Marco; Vandelli, Wainer; Vaniachine, Alexandre; Vankov, Peter; Vannucci, Francois; Vardanyan, Gagik; Vari, Riccardo; Varnes, Erich; Varol, Tulin; Varouchas, Dimitris; Vartapetian, Armen; Varvell, Kevin; Vassilakopoulos, Vassilios; Vazeille, Francois; Vazquez Schroeder, Tamara; Veatch, Jason; Veloso, Filipe; Veneziano, Stefano; Ventura, Andrea; Ventura, Daniel; Venturi, Manuela; Venturi, Nicola; Venturini, Alessio; Vercesi, Valerio; Verducci, Monica; Verkerke, Wouter; Vermeulen, Jos; Vest, Anja; Vetterli, Michel; Viazlo, Oleksandr; Vichou, Irene; Vickey, Trevor; Vickey Boeriu, Oana Elena; Viehhauser, Georg; Viel, Simon; Vigne, Ralph; Villa, Mauro; Villaplana Perez, Miguel; Vilucchi, Elisabetta; Vincter, Manuella; Vinogradov, Vladimir; Virzi, Joseph; Vitells, Ofer; Viti, Michele; Vivarelli, Iacopo; Vives Vaque, Francesc; Vlachos, Sotirios; Vladoiu, Dan; Vlasak, Michal; Vogel, Adrian; Vokac, Petr; Volpi, Guido; Volpi, Matteo; Volpini, Giovanni; von der Schmitt, Hans; von Radziewski, Holger; von Toerne, Eckhard; Vorobel, Vit; Vos, Marcel; Voss, Rudiger; Vossebeld, Joost; Vranjes, Nenad; Vranjes Milosavljevic, Marija; Vrba, Vaclav; Vreeswijk, Marcel; Vu Anh, Tuan; Vuillermet, Raphael; Vukotic, Ilija; Vykydal, Zdenek; Wagner, Wolfgang; Wagner, Peter; Wahrmund, Sebastian; Wakabayashi, Jun; Walch, Shannon; Walder, James; Walker, Rodney; Walkowiak, Wolfgang; Wall, Richard; Waller, Peter; Walsh, Brian; Wang, Chiho; Wang, Haichen; Wang, Hulin; Wang, Jike; Wang, Jin; Wang, Kuhan; Wang, Rui; Wang, Song-Ming; Wang, Tan; Wang, Xiaoxiao; Warburton, Andreas; Ward, Patricia; Wardrope, David Robert; Warsinsky, Markus; Washbrook, Andrew; Wasicki, Christoph; Watanabe, Ippei; Watkins, Peter; Watson, Alan; Watson, Ian; Watson, Miriam; Watts, Gordon; Watts, Stephen; Waugh, Anthony; Waugh, Ben; Webb, Samuel; Weber, Michele; Weber, Stefan Wolf; Webster, Jordan S; Weidberg, Anthony; Weigell, Philipp; Weingarten, Jens; Weiser, Christian; Weits, Hartger; Wells, Phillippa; Wenaus, Torre; Wendland, Dennis; Weng, Zhili; Wengler, Thorsten; Wenig, Siegfried; Wermes, Norbert; Werner, Matthias; Werner, Per; Wessels, Martin; Wetter, Jeffrey; Whalen, Kathleen; White, Andrew; White, Martin; White, Ryan; White, Sebastian; Whiteson, Daniel; Whittington, Denver; Wicke, Daniel; Wickens, Fred; Wiedenmann, Werner; Wielers, Monika; Wienemann, Peter; Wiglesworth, Craig; Wiik-Fuchs, Liv Antje Mari; Wijeratne, Peter Alexander; Wildauer, Andreas; Wildt, Martin Andre; Wilhelm, Ivan; Wilkens, Henric George; Will, Jonas Zacharias; Williams, Hugh; Williams, Sarah; Willis, William; Willocq, Stephane; Wilson, John; Wilson, Alan; Wingerter-Seez, Isabelle; Winkelmann, Stefan; Winklmeier, Frank; Wittgen, Matthias; Wittig, Tobias; Wittkowski, Josephine; Wollstadt, Simon Jakob; Wolter, Marcin Wladyslaw; Wolters, Helmut; Wong, Wei-Cheng; Wosiek, Barbara; Wotschack, Jorg; Woudstra, Martin; Wozniak, Krzysztof; Wraight, Kenneth; Wright, Michael; Wu, Sau Lan; Wu, Xin; Wu, Yusheng; Wulf, Evan; Wyatt, Terry Richard; Wynne, Benjamin; Xella, Stefania; Xiao, Meng; Xu, Chao; Xu, Da; Xu, Lailin; Yabsley, Bruce; Yacoob, Sahal; Yamada, Miho; Yamaguchi, Hiroshi; Yamaguchi, Yohei; Yamamoto, Akira; Yamamoto, Kyoko; Yamamoto, Shimpei; Yamamura, Taiki; Yamanaka, Takashi; Yamauchi, Katsuya; Yamazaki, Yuji; Yan, Zhen; Yang, Haijun; Yang, Hongtao; Yang, Un-Ki; Yang, Yi; Yanush, Serguei; Yao, Liwen; Yasu, Yoshiji; Yatsenko, Elena; Yau Wong, Kaven Henry; Ye, Jingbo; Ye, Shuwei; Yen, Andy L; Yildirim, Eda; Yilmaz, Metin; Yoosoofmiya, Reza; Yorita, Kohei; Yoshida, Rikutaro; Yoshihara, Keisuke; Young, Charles; Young, Christopher John; Youssef, Saul; Yu, David Ren-Hwa; Yu, Jaehoon; Yu, Jie; Yuan, Li; Yurkewicz, Adam; Zabinski, Bartlomiej; Zaidan, Remi; Zaitsev, Alexander; Zaman, Aungshuman; Zambito, Stefano; Zanello, Lucia; Zanzi, Daniele; Zaytsev, Alexander; Zeitnitz, Christian; Zeman, Martin; Zemla, Andrzej; Zengel, Keith; Zenin, Oleg; Ženiš, Tibor; Zerwas, Dirk; Zevi della Porta, Giovanni; Zhang, Dongliang; Zhang, Huaqiao; Zhang, Jinlong; Zhang, Lei; Zhang, Xueyao; Zhang, Zhiqing; Zhao, Zhengguo; Zhemchugov, Alexey; Zhong, Jiahang; Zhou, Bing; Zhou, Lei; Zhou, Ning; Zhu, Cheng Guang; Zhu, Hongbo; Zhu, Junjie; Zhu, Yingchun; Zhuang, Xuai; Zibell, Andre; Zieminska, Daria; Zimine, Nikolai; Zimmermann, Christoph; Zimmermann, Robert; Zimmermann, Simone; Zimmermann, Stephanie; Zinonos, Zinonas; Ziolkowski, Michael; Zitoun, Robert; Zobernig, Georg; Zoccoli, Antonio; zur Nedden, Martin; Zurzolo, Giovanni; Zutshi, Vishnu; Zwalinski, Lukasz

    2015-01-15

    The jet energy scale (JES) and its systematic uncertainty are determined for jets measured with the ATLAS detector using proton-proton collision data with a centre-of-mass energy of $\\sqrt{s}=7$ TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 4.7 fb$^{-1}$. Jets are reconstructed from energy deposits forming topological clusters of calorimeter cells using the anti-k$_t$ algorithm with distance parameters $R=0.4$ or $R=0.6$, and are calibrated using MC simulations. A residual JES correction is applied to account for differences between data and MC simulations. This correction and its systematic uncertainty are estimated using a combination of in situ techniques exploiting the transverse momentum balance between a jet and a reference object such as a photon or a Z boson, for $20 1$ TeV. The calibration of forward jets is derived from dijet $p_t$ balance measurements. The resulting uncertainty reaches its largest value of $6%$ for low-$p_t$ jets at $|\\eta|=4.5$. Additional JES uncertainties due to specific eve...

  10. SYSTEMATIC UNCERTAINTIES IN BLACK HOLE MASSES DETERMINED FROM SINGLE-EPOCH SPECTRA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Denney, Kelly D.; Peterson, Bradley M.; Dietrich, Matthias; Bentz, Misty C.; Vestergaard, Marianne

    2009-01-01

    We explore the nature of systematic errors that can arise in measurement of black hole masses from single-epoch (SE) spectra of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) by utilizing the many epochs available for NGC 5548 and PG1229+204 from reverberation mapping (RM) databases. In particular, we examine systematics due to AGN variability, contamination due to constant spectral components (i.e., narrow lines and host galaxy flux), data quality (i.e., signal-to-noise ratio (S/N)), and blending of spectral features. We investigate the effect that each of these systematics has on the precision and accuracy of SE masses calculated from two commonly used line width measures by comparing these results to recent RM studies. We calculate masses by characterizing the broad Hβ emission line by both the full width at half maximum and the line dispersion, and demonstrate the importance of removing narrow emission-line components and host starlight. We find that the reliability of line width measurements rapidly decreases for S/N lower than ∼ 10-20 (per pixel), and that fitting the line profiles instead of direct measurement of the data does not mitigate this problem but can, in fact, introduce systematic errors. We also conclude that a full spectral decomposition to deblend the AGN and galaxy spectral features is unnecessary, except to judge the contribution of the host galaxy to the luminosity and to deblend any emission lines that may inhibit accurate line width measurements. Finally, we present an error budget which summarizes the minimum observable uncertainties as well as the amount of additional scatter and/or systematic offset that can be expected from the individual sources of error investigated. In particular, we find that the minimum observable uncertainty in SE mass estimates due to variability is ∼ 20 pixel -1 ) spectra.

  11. Tissue engineering strategies for alveolar cleft reconstruction: a systematic review of the literature

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, N.G.; Weijs, W.L.J.; Koole, R.A.; Rosenberg, A.J.; Meijer, G.J.

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To date, a great number of tissue engineering strategies have been suggested for alveolar cleft reconstruction; however, autologous bone grafting seems to remain the golden standard. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A systematic review of the literature was conducted in order to evaluate the

  12. The Impact of Reconstruction Methods, Phylogenetic Uncertainty and Branch Lengths on Inference of Chromosome Number Evolution in American Daisies (Melampodium, Asteraceae)

    OpenAIRE

    McCann, Jamie; Schneeweiss, Gerald M.; Stuessy, Tod F.; Villase?or, Jose L.; Weiss-Schneeweiss, Hanna

    2016-01-01

    Chromosome number change (polyploidy and dysploidy) plays an important role in plant diversification and speciation. Investigating chromosome number evolution commonly entails ancestral state reconstruction performed within a phylogenetic framework, which is, however, prone to uncertainty, whose effects on evolutionary inferences are insufficiently understood. Using the chromosomally diverse plant genus Melampodium (Asteraceae) as model group, we assess the impact of reconstruction method (ma...

  13. Systematic reconstruction of autism biology from massive genetic mutation profiles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Weijun; Zhang, Chaolin; Jiang, Yong-Hui; Brouwer, Cory R

    2018-04-01

    Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) affects 1% of world population and has become a pressing medical and social problem worldwide. As a paradigmatic complex genetic disease, ASD has been intensively studied and thousands of gene mutations have been reported. Because these mutations rarely recur, it is difficult to (i) pinpoint the fewer disease-causing versus majority random events and (ii) replicate or verify independent studies. A coherent and systematic understanding of autism biology has not been achieved. We analyzed 3392 and 4792 autism-related mutations from two large-scale whole-exome studies across multiple resolution levels, that is, variants (single-nucleotide), genes (protein-coding unit), and pathways (molecular module). These mutations do not recur or replicate at the variant level, but significantly and increasingly do so at gene and pathway levels. Genetic association reveals a novel gene + pathway dual-hit model, where the mutation burden becomes less relevant. In multiple independent analyses, hundreds of variants or genes repeatedly converge to several canonical pathways, either novel or literature-supported. These pathways define recurrent and systematic ASD biology, distinct from previously reported gene groups or networks. They also present a catalog of novel ASD risk factors including 118 variants and 72 genes. At a subpathway level, most variants disrupt the pathway-related gene functions, and in the same gene, they tend to hit residues extremely close to each other and in the same domain. Multiple interacting variants spotlight key modules, including the cAMP (adenosine 3',5'-monophosphate) second-messenger system and mGluR (metabotropic glutamate receptor) signaling regulation by GRKs (G protein-coupled receptor kinases). At a superpathway level, distinct pathways further interconnect and converge to three biology themes: synaptic function, morphology, and plasticity.

  14. Systematic reconstruction of TRANSPATH data into cell system markup language.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagasaki, Masao; Saito, Ayumu; Li, Chen; Jeong, Euna; Miyano, Satoru

    2008-06-23

    Many biological repositories store information based on experimental study of the biological processes within a cell, such as protein-protein interactions, metabolic pathways, signal transduction pathways, or regulations of transcription factors and miRNA. Unfortunately, it is difficult to directly use such information when generating simulation-based models. Thus, modeling rules for encoding biological knowledge into system-dynamics-oriented standardized formats would be very useful for fully understanding cellular dynamics at the system level. We selected the TRANSPATH database, a manually curated high-quality pathway database, which provides a plentiful source of cellular events in humans, mice, and rats, collected from over 31,500 publications. In this work, we have developed 16 modeling rules based on hybrid functional Petri net with extension (HFPNe), which is suitable for graphical representing and simulating biological processes. In the modeling rules, each Petri net element is incorporated with Cell System Ontology to enable semantic interoperability of models. As a formal ontology for biological pathway modeling with dynamics, CSO also defines biological terminology and corresponding icons. By combining HFPNe with the CSO features, it is possible to make TRANSPATH data to simulation-based and semantically valid models. The results are encoded into a biological pathway format, Cell System Markup Language (CSML), which eases the exchange and integration of biological data and models. By using the 16 modeling rules, 97% of the reactions in TRANSPATH are converted into simulation-based models represented in CSML. This reconstruction demonstrates that it is possible to use our rules to generate quantitative models from static pathway descriptions.

  15. Assessing value in breast reconstruction: A systematic review of cost-effectiveness studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheckter, Clifford C; Matros, Evan; Momeni, Arash

    2018-03-01

    Breast reconstruction is one of the most common procedures performed by plastic surgeons and is achieved through various choices in both technology and method. Cost-effectiveness analyses are increasingly important in assessing differences in value between treatment options, which is relevant in a world of confined resources. A thorough evaluation of the cost-effectiveness literature can assist surgeons and health systems evaluate high-value care models. A systematic review of PubMed, Web of Science, and the Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Registry was conducted. Two reviewers independently evaluated all publications up until August 17, 2017. After removal of duplicates, 1996 records were screened, from which 53 studies underwent full text review. All the 13 studies included for final analysis mention an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. Five studies evaluated the cost-effectiveness of technologies including acellular dermal matrix (ADM) in staged prosthetic reconstruction, ADM in direct-to-implant (DTI) reconstruction, preoperative computed tomography angiography in autologous reconstruction, indocyanine green dye angiography in evaluating anastomotic patency, and abdominal mesh reinforcement in abdominal tissue transfer. The remaining eight studies evaluated the cost-effectiveness of different reconstruction methods. Cost-effective strategies included free vs. pedicled abdominal tissue transfer, DTI vs. staged prosthetic reconstruction, and fascia-sparing variants of free abdominal tissue transfer. Current evidence demonstrates multiple cost-effective technologies and methods in accomplishing successful breast reconstruction. Plastic surgeons should be well informed of such economic models when engaging payers and policymakers in discussions regarding high-value breast reconstruction. Copyright © 2017 British Association of Plastic, Reconstructive and Aesthetic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Psychology of plastic and reconstructive surgery: a systematic clinical review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shridharani, Sachin M; Magarakis, Michael; Manson, Paul N; Rodriguez, Eduardo D

    2010-12-01

    The authors sought to review the various types of patients with psychological abnormalities who may present to the plastic surgeon and the psychological impact of various plastic surgery procedures on these patients. After systematically searching the Embase and PubMed databases and following further refinement (based on the authors' inclusion and exclusion criteria), the authors identified 65 studies. In addition, the authors felt that important information was contained in four textbooks, two press releases, and one Internet database. The inclusion criteria were studies that investigated the psychological outcomes, background, and personality types of patients seeking specific plastic surgery procedures. In addition, studies that addressed the impact of plastic surgery on patients' psychological status and quality of life were also included. The authors excluded studies with fewer than 30 patients, studies that did not pertain to the particular plastic surgery procedures, and studies that addressed psychological sequelae of revision operations. Narcissistic and histrionic personality disorders and body dysmorphic disorder are the three most common psychiatric conditions encountered in patients seeking cosmetic surgery. Overall, plastic surgery not only restores the appearance and function of the disfigured body unit but also alleviates psychological distress. Identifying the psychologically challenging patient before surgical intervention will allow the patient to obtain the appropriate psychological assistance and may result in a healthier individual with or without associated plastic surgery procedures.

  17. Update on the jet energy scale systematic uncertainty for jets produced in proton-proton collisions at $\\sqrt{s}=7$~TeV measured with the ATLAS detector

    CERN Document Server

    The ATLAS collaboration

    2011-01-01

    An update to the jet energy scale systematic uncertainty for inclusive jets measured in the ATLAS detector and produced in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of $\\sqrt{s}=7$~TeV is described. The jet energy scale systematic uncertainty for jets reconstructed with the \\antikt~algorithm with distance parameters of $R=0.4$ and $R=0.6$ is evaluated starting from a transverse momentum of $20$~GeV and for a calorimeter coverage up to pseudo-rapidities of $|\\eta| = 4.5$. In the central detector region the jet energy scale uncertainty is obtained from the single isolated hadron response measured in-situ in proton proton collisions and in the ATLAS combined test-beam for pion momenta up to $350$~GeV. Further uncertainties are evaluated with systematic variations of Monte Carlo simulations. The uncertainty is extended to the endcap and forward detector regions exploiting the transverse momentum balance between a central and a forward jet in events where only two jets are produced. The JES uncertainty a...

  18. A systematic review of acelluar dermal matrices in head and neck reconstruction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shridharani, Sachin M; Tufaro, Anthony P

    2012-11-01

    The use of acellular dermal matrices has been well described in the scientific literature since the early 1990 s and has been utilized for multiple applications in the head and neck for both aesthetic and reconstructive efforts. After systematically searching the PubMed database and following further refinement (based on the authors' inclusion and exclusion criteria), the authors identified 30 studies that provided information about patients who had undergone head and neck reconstruction with the use of acellular dermal matrix. Studies had to report quantifiable objective results in patients who were older than 1 year and younger than 90 years. The authors excluded single case reports, studies with fewer than 10 patients, and studies not published in English. The optimal material used as an implant for reconstruction possesses the following properties: facilitation of vascular ingrowth, decreased propensity to incite inflammation, biologic inertness, resistance to infection, and ease of handling. Acellular dermal matrix possesses many of these properties and is utilized in reconstructing nasal soft tissue and skeletal support, tympanic membrane, periorbital soft tissue, extraoral and intraoral defects, oropharyngeal defects, dura mater, and soft-tissue deficits from parotidectomy. Furthermore, it is used to assist in preventing Frey syndrome following parotidectomy and surgical treatment of facial paralysis. Use of acellular dermal matrix for head and neck reconstruction has expanded exponentially and is validated in many studies. Further prospective randomized control trials are warranted to further investigate the efficacy of acellular dermal matrix in head and neck reconstruction.

  19. Systematic uncertainties in the Monte Carlo calculation of ion chamber replacement correction factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, L. L. W.; La Russa, D. J.; Rogers, D. W. O. [Ottawa Carleton Institute of Physics, Carleton University, Campus Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario KIS 5B6 (Canada)

    2009-05-15

    In a previous study [Med. Phys. 35, 1747-1755 (2008)], the authors proposed two direct methods of calculating the replacement correction factors (P{sub repl} or p{sub cav}p{sub dis}) for ion chambers by Monte Carlo calculation. By ''direct'' we meant the stopping-power ratio evaluation is not necessary. The two methods were named as the high-density air (HDA) and low-density water (LDW) methods. Although the accuracy of these methods was briefly discussed, it turns out that the assumption made regarding the dose in an HDA slab as a function of slab thickness is not correct. This issue is reinvestigated in the current study, and the accuracy of the LDW method applied to ion chambers in a {sup 60}Co photon beam is also studied. It is found that the two direct methods are in fact not completely independent of the stopping-power ratio of the two materials involved. There is an implicit dependence of the calculated P{sub repl} values upon the stopping-power ratio evaluation through the choice of an appropriate energy cutoff {Delta}, which characterizes a cavity size in the Spencer-Attix cavity theory. Since the {Delta} value is not accurately defined in the theory, this dependence on the stopping-power ratio results in a systematic uncertainty on the calculated P{sub repl} values. For phantom materials of similar effective atomic number to air, such as water and graphite, this systematic uncertainty is at most 0.2% for most commonly used chambers for either electron or photon beams. This uncertainty level is good enough for current ion chamber dosimetry, and the merits of the two direct methods of calculating P{sub repl} values are maintained, i.e., there is no need to do a separate stopping-power ratio calculation. For high-Z materials, the inherent uncertainty would make it practically impossible to calculate reliable P{sub repl} values using the two direct methods.

  20. Systematic Review: Aesthetic Assessment of Breast Reconstruction Outcomes by Healthcare Professionals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maass, Saskia W M C; Bagher, Shaghayegh; Hofer, Stefan O P; Baxter, Nancy N; Zhong, Toni

    2015-12-01

    Achieving an aesthetic outcome following postmastectomy breast reconstruction is both an important goal for the patient and plastic surgeon. However, there is currently an absence of a widely accepted, standardized, and validated professional aesthetic assessment scale following postmastectomy breast reconstruction. A systematic review was performed to identify all articles that provided professional assessment of the aesthetic outcome following postmastectomy, implant- or autologous tissue-based breast reconstruction. A modified version of the Scientific Advisory Committee's Medical Outcomes Trust (MOT) criteria was used to evaluate all professional aesthetic assessment scales identified by our systematic review. The criteria included conceptual framework formation, reliability, validity, responsiveness, interpretability, burden, and correlation with patient-reported outcomes. A total of 120 articles were identified: 52 described autologous breast reconstruction, 37 implant-based reconstruction, and 29 both. Of the 12 different professional aesthetic assessment scales that exist in the literature, the most commonly used scale was the four-point professional aesthetic assessment scale. The highest score on the modified MOT criteria was assigned to the ten-point professional aesthetic assessment scale. However, this scale has limited clinical usefulness due to its poor responsiveness to change, lack of interpretability, and wide range of intra- and inter-rater agreements (Veiga et al. in Ann Plast Surg 48(5):515-520, 2002). A "gold standard" professional aesthetic assessment scale needs to be developed to enhance the comparability of breast reconstruction results across techniques, surgeons, and studies to aid with the selection of procedures that produce the best aesthetic results from both the perspectives of the surgeon and patients.

  1. Surgical treatment of patellofemoral instability using trochleoplasty or MPFL reconstruction: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Testa, Enrique Adrian; Camathias, Carlo; Amsler, Felix; Henle, Philipp; Friederich, Niklaus F; Hirschmann, Michael Tobias

    2017-08-01

    Trochleoplasty and reconstruction of the medial patellofemoral ligament (MPFL) are among the most commonly performed surgical treatments in patients with patellofemoral instability. The primary purpose of the study was to perform a systematic literature review on trochleoplasty in the treatment of patients with patellofemoral instability. The secondary purpose was to compare the outcomes with those seen in patients treated after reconstruction of the MPFL. A standardised search on search engines was performed. All observational and experimental studies dealing with trochleoplasty were then obtained and reviewed in a consensus meeting. Fifteen articles out of 1543 were included and analysed using the CASP appraisal scoring system. Twenty-five studies on MPFL reconstruction were obtained for comparison. The clinical and radiological outcomes were statistically analysed. Both treatment groups showed significant improvement in outcomes from pre- to post-operatively. The mean post-operative Kujala and the Lysholm scores significantly increased in both groups when compared to preoperatively (trochleoplasty group: Kujala 61.4-80.8 and Lysholm 55.5-78.5; MPFL group: Kujala 46.9-88.8 and Lysholm 59.9-91.1). Post-operatively a positive apprehension test was found in 20 and 8 % of the trochleoplasty and MPFL groups, respectively. No significant differences in redislocation (2 %) and subluxation (5-6 %) rates were found. This systematic review showed that both trochleoplasty and MPFL reconstruction are able to deliver good clinical outcomes with stable patellofemoral joints. III.

  2. Community health nursing practices in contexts of poverty, uncertainty and unpredictability: a systematization of personal experiences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laperrière, Hélène

    2007-01-01

    Several years of professional nursing practices, while living in the poorest neighbourhoods in the outlying areas of Brazil's Amazon region, have led the author to develop a better understanding of marginalized populations. Providing care to people with leprosy and sex workers in riverside communities has taken place in conditions of uncertainty, insecurity, unpredictability and institutional violence. The question raised is how we can develop community health nursing practices in this context. A systematization of personal experiences based on popular education is used and analyzed as a way of learning by obtaining scientific knowledge through critical analysis of field practices. Ties of solidarity and belonging developed in informal, mutual-help action groups are promising avenues for research and the development of knowledge in health promotion, prevention and community care and a necessary contribution to national public health programmers.

  3. Evaluation of photonuclear reaction cross-sections using the reduction method for large systematic uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varlamov, V.V.; Efimkin, N.G.; Ishkhanov, B.S.; Sapunenko, V.V.

    1994-12-01

    The authors describe a method based on the reduction method for the evaluation of photonuclear reaction cross-sections obtained under conditions where there are large systematic uncertainties (different instrumental functions, calibration and normalization errors). The evaluation method involves using the actual instrumental function (photon spectrum) of each individual experiment to reduce the data to a representation generated by an instrumental function of better quality. The objective is to find the most reasonably achievable monoenergetic representation of the information on the reaction cross-section derived from the results of various experiments and to take into account the calibration and normalization errors in these experiments. The method was used to obtain the evaluated total photoneutron reaction cross-section (γ,xn) for a large number of nuclei. Data obtained for 16 O and 208 Pb are presented. (author). 36 refs, 6 figs, 4 tabs

  4. Assessment of the uncertainty associated with systematic errors in digital instruments: an experimental study on offset errors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Attivissimo, F; Giaquinto, N; Savino, M; Cataldo, A

    2012-01-01

    This paper deals with the assessment of the uncertainty due to systematic errors, particularly in A/D conversion-based instruments. The problem of defining and assessing systematic errors is briefly discussed, and the conceptual scheme of gauge repeatability and reproducibility is adopted. A practical example regarding the evaluation of the uncertainty caused by the systematic offset error is presented. The experimental results, obtained under various ambient conditions, show that modelling the variability of systematic errors is more problematic than suggested by the ISO 5725 norm. Additionally, the paper demonstrates the substantial difference between the type B uncertainty evaluation, obtained via the maximum entropy principle applied to manufacturer's specifications, and the type A (experimental) uncertainty evaluation, which reflects actually observable reality. Although it is reasonable to assume a uniform distribution of the offset error, experiments demonstrate that the distribution is not centred and that a correction must be applied. In such a context, this work motivates a more pragmatic and experimental approach to uncertainty, with respect to the directions of supplement 1 of GUM. (paper)

  5. Photoneutron cross sections for {sup 59}Co. Systematic uncertainties of data from various experiments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Varlamov, V.V. [Lomonosov Moscow State University, Skobeltsyn Institute of Nuclear Physics, Moscow (Russian Federation); Davydov, A.I. [Lomonosov Moscow State University, Physics Faculty, Moscow (Russian Federation); Ishkhanov, B.S. [Lomonosov Moscow State University, Skobeltsyn Institute of Nuclear Physics, Moscow (Russian Federation); Lomonosov Moscow State University, Physics Faculty, Moscow (Russian Federation)

    2017-09-15

    Data on partial photoneutron reaction cross sections (γ, 1n), (γ, 2n), and (γ, 3n) for {sup 59}Co obtained in two experiments carried out at Livermore (USA) were analyzed. The sources of radiation in both experiments were the monoenergetic photon beams from the annihilation in flight of relativistic positrons. The total yield was sorted by the neutron multiplicity, taking into account the difference in the neutron energy spectra for different multiplicity. The two quoted studies differ in the method of determining the neutron. Significant systematic disagreements between the results of the two experiments exist. They are considered to be caused by large systematic uncertainties in partial cross sections, since they do not satisfy physical criteria for reliability of the data. To obtain reliable cross sections of partial and total photoneutron reactions a new method combining experimental data and theoretical evaluation was used. It is based on the experimental neutron yield cross section which is rather independent of neutron multiplicity and the transitional neutron multiplicity functions of the combined photonucleon reaction model (CPNRM). The model transitional multiplicity functions were used for the decomposition of the neutron yield cross section into the contributions of partial reactions. The results of the new evaluation noticeably differ from the partial cross sections obtained in the two experimental studies are under discussion. (orig.)

  6. Biologic mesh reconstruction of the pelvic floor after extralevator abdominoperineal excision; a systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nasra N Alam

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available IntroductionThe aim of this review is to provide an overview of the evidence for the use of biologic mesh in the reconstruction of the pelvic floor after extralevator abdominoperineal excision of the rectum (ELAPE.MethodsA systematic search of PubMed was conducted using the search terms ‘ELAPE’, ‘extralevator abdominoperineal excision of rectum’ or ‘extralevator abdominoperineal resection’. The search yielded 17 studies.ResultsBiologic mesh was used in perineal reconstruction in 463 cases. There were 41 perineal hernias reported but rates were not consistently reported in all studies. The most common complications were perineal wound infection (n = 93, perineal sinus and fistulae (n = 26 and perineal haematoma or seroma (n = 11. There were very few comparative studies, with only one RCT identified that compared patients undergoing ELAPE with perineal reconstruction using a biological mesh, with patients undergoing a conventional abdominoperineal excision of the rectum with no mesh. There was no significant difference in perineal hernia rates or perineal wound infections between the groups. Other comparative studies comparing the use of biologic mesh with techniques such as the use of myocutaneous flaps were of low quality.ConclusionsBiologic mesh-assisted perineal reconstruction is a promising technique to improve wound healing and has comparable complications rates to other techniques. However, there is not enough evidence to support its use in all patients who have undergone ELAPE. Results from high-quality prospective RCTs and national/international collaborative audits are required.

  7. Quadriceps Tendon Autograft in Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction: A Systematic Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurley, Eoghan T; Calvo-Gurry, Manuel; Withers, Dan; Farrington, Shane K; Moran, Ray; Moran, Cathal J

    2018-05-01

    To systematically review the current evidence to ascertain whether quadriceps tendon autograft (QT) is a viable option in anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction. A literature review was conducted in accordance with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. Cohort studies comparing QT with bone-patellar tendon-bone autograft (BPTB) or hamstring tendon autograft (HT) were included. Clinical outcomes were compared, with all statistical analyses performed using IBM SPSS Statistics for Windows, version 22.0, with P < .05 being considered statistically significant. We identified 15 clinical trials with 1,910 patients. In all included studies, QT resulted in lower rates of anterior knee pain than BPTB. There was no difference in the rate of graft rupture between QT and BPTB or HT in any of the studies reporting this. One study found that QT resulted in greater knee stability than BPTB, and another study found increased stability compared with HT. One study found that QT resulted in improved functional outcomes compared with BPTB, and another found improved outcomes compared with HT, but one study found worse outcomes compared with BPTB. Current literature suggests QT is a viable option in anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction, with published literature showing comparable knee stability, functional outcomes, donor-site morbidity, and rerupture rates compared with BPTB and HT. Level III, systematic review of Level I, II, and III studies. Copyright © 2018 Arthroscopy Association of North America. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Climateprediction.com: Public Involvement, Multi-Million Member Ensembles and Systematic Uncertainty Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stainforth, D. A.; Allen, M.; Kettleborough, J.; Collins, M.; Heaps, A.; Stott, P.; Wehner, M.

    2001-12-01

    The climateprediction.com project is preparing to carry out the first systematic uncertainty analysis of climate forecasts using large ensembles of GCM climate simulations. This will be done by involving schools, businesses and members of the public, and utilizing the novel technology of distributed computing. Each participant will be asked to run one member of the ensemble on their PC. The model used will initially be the UK Met Office's Unified Model (UM). It will be run under Windows and software will be provided to enable those involved to view their model output as it develops. The project will use this method to carry out large perturbed physics GCM ensembles and thereby analyse the uncertainty in the forecasts from such models. Each participant/ensemble member will therefore have a version of the UM in which certain aspects of the model physics have been perturbed from their default values. Of course the non-linear nature of the system means that it will be necessary to look not just at perturbations to individual parameters in specific schemes, such as the cloud parameterization, but also to the many combinations of perturbations. This rapidly leads to the need for very large, perhaps multi-million member ensembles, which could only be undertaken using the distributed computing methodology. The status of the project will be presented and the Windows client will be demonstrated. In addition, initial results will be presented from beta test runs using a demo release for Linux PCs and Alpha workstations. Although small by comparison to the whole project, these pilot results constitute a 20-50 member perturbed physics climate ensemble with results indicating how climate sensitivity can be substantially affected by individual parameter values in the cloud scheme.

  9. Minimizing manual image segmentation turn-around time for neuronal reconstruction by embracing uncertainty.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen M Plaza

    Full Text Available The ability to automatically segment an image into distinct regions is a critical aspect in many visual processing applications. Because inaccuracies often exist in automatic segmentation, manual segmentation is necessary in some application domains to correct mistakes, such as required in the reconstruction of neuronal processes from microscopic images. The goal of the automated segmentation tool is traditionally to produce the highest-quality segmentation, where quality is measured by the similarity to actual ground truth, so as to minimize the volume of manual correction necessary. Manual correction is generally orders-of-magnitude more time consuming than automated segmentation, often making handling large images intractable. Therefore, we propose a more relevant goal: minimizing the turn-around time of automated/manual segmentation while attaining a level of similarity with ground truth. It is not always necessary to inspect every aspect of an image to generate a useful segmentation. As such, we propose a strategy to guide manual segmentation to the most uncertain parts of segmentation. Our contributions include 1 a probabilistic measure that evaluates segmentation without ground truth and 2 a methodology that leverages these probabilistic measures to significantly reduce manual correction while maintaining segmentation quality.

  10. Strontium isotopes and the reconstruction of the Chaco regional system: evaluating uncertainty with Bayesian mixing models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brandon Lee Drake

    Full Text Available Strontium isotope sourcing has become a common and useful method for assigning sources to archaeological artifacts.In Chaco Canyon, an Ancestral Pueblo regional center in New Mexico, previous studiesusing these methods have suggested that significant portion of maize and wood originate in the Chuska Mountains region, 75 km to the West [corrected]. In the present manuscript, these results were tested using both frequentist methods (to determine if geochemical sources can truly be differentiated and Bayesian methods (to address uncertainty in geochemical source attribution. It was found that Chaco Canyon and the Chuska Mountain region are not easily distinguishable based on radiogenic strontium isotope values. The strontium profiles of many geochemical sources in the region overlap, making it difficult to definitively identify any one particular geochemical source for the canyon's pre-historic maize. Bayesian mixing models support the argument that some spruce and fir wood originated in the San Mateo Mountains, but that this cannot explain all 87Sr/86Sr values in Chaco timber. Overall radiogenic strontium isotope data do not clearly identify a single major geochemical source for maize, ponderosa, and most spruce/fir timber. As such, the degree to which Chaco Canyon relied upon outside support for both food and construction material is still ambiguous.

  11. The Impact of Reconstruction Methods, Phylogenetic Uncertainty and Branch Lengths on Inference of Chromosome Number Evolution in American Daisies (Melampodium, Asteraceae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCann, Jamie; Schneeweiss, Gerald M; Stuessy, Tod F; Villaseñor, Jose L; Weiss-Schneeweiss, Hanna

    2016-01-01

    Chromosome number change (polyploidy and dysploidy) plays an important role in plant diversification and speciation. Investigating chromosome number evolution commonly entails ancestral state reconstruction performed within a phylogenetic framework, which is, however, prone to uncertainty, whose effects on evolutionary inferences are insufficiently understood. Using the chromosomally diverse plant genus Melampodium (Asteraceae) as model group, we assess the impact of reconstruction method (maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood, Bayesian methods), branch length model (phylograms versus chronograms) and phylogenetic uncertainty (topological and branch length uncertainty) on the inference of chromosome number evolution. We also address the suitability of the maximum clade credibility (MCC) tree as single representative topology for chromosome number reconstruction. Each of the listed factors causes considerable incongruence among chromosome number reconstructions. Discrepancies between inferences on the MCC tree from those made by integrating over a set of trees are moderate for ancestral chromosome numbers, but severe for the difference of chromosome gains and losses, a measure of the directionality of dysploidy. Therefore, reliance on single trees, such as the MCC tree, is strongly discouraged and model averaging, taking both phylogenetic and model uncertainty into account, is recommended. For studying chromosome number evolution, dedicated models implemented in the program ChromEvol and ordered maximum parsimony may be most appropriate. Chromosome number evolution in Melampodium follows a pattern of bidirectional dysploidy (starting from x = 11 to x = 9 and x = 14, respectively) with no prevailing direction.

  12. The Impact of Reconstruction Methods, Phylogenetic Uncertainty and Branch Lengths on Inference of Chromosome Number Evolution in American Daisies (Melampodium, Asteraceae.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jamie McCann

    Full Text Available Chromosome number change (polyploidy and dysploidy plays an important role in plant diversification and speciation. Investigating chromosome number evolution commonly entails ancestral state reconstruction performed within a phylogenetic framework, which is, however, prone to uncertainty, whose effects on evolutionary inferences are insufficiently understood. Using the chromosomally diverse plant genus Melampodium (Asteraceae as model group, we assess the impact of reconstruction method (maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood, Bayesian methods, branch length model (phylograms versus chronograms and phylogenetic uncertainty (topological and branch length uncertainty on the inference of chromosome number evolution. We also address the suitability of the maximum clade credibility (MCC tree as single representative topology for chromosome number reconstruction. Each of the listed factors causes considerable incongruence among chromosome number reconstructions. Discrepancies between inferences on the MCC tree from those made by integrating over a set of trees are moderate for ancestral chromosome numbers, but severe for the difference of chromosome gains and losses, a measure of the directionality of dysploidy. Therefore, reliance on single trees, such as the MCC tree, is strongly discouraged and model averaging, taking both phylogenetic and model uncertainty into account, is recommended. For studying chromosome number evolution, dedicated models implemented in the program ChromEvol and ordered maximum parsimony may be most appropriate. Chromosome number evolution in Melampodium follows a pattern of bidirectional dysploidy (starting from x = 11 to x = 9 and x = 14, respectively with no prevailing direction.

  13. Uncertainties and Systematic Effects on the estimate of stellar masses in high z galaxies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salimbeni, S.; Fontana, A.; Giallongo, E.; Grazian, A.; Menci, N.; Pentericci, L.; Santini, P.

    2009-05-01

    We discuss the uncertainties and the systematic effects that exist in the estimates of the stellar masses of high redshift galaxies, using broad band photometry, and how they affect the deduced galaxy stellar mass function. We use at this purpose the latest version of the GOODS-MUSIC catalog. In particular, we discuss the impact of different synthetic models, of the assumed initial mass function and of the selection band. Using Chariot & Bruzual 2007 and Maraston 2005 models we find masses lower than those obtained from Bruzual & Chariot 2003 models. In addition, we find a slight trend as a function of the mass itself comparing these two mass determinations with that from Bruzual & Chariot 2003 models. As consequence, the derived galaxy stellar mass functions show diverse shapes, and their slope depends on the assumed models. Despite these differences, the overall results and scenario is observed in all these cases. The masses obtained with the assumption of the Chabrier initial mass function are in average 0.24 dex lower than those from the Salpeter assumption, at all redshifts, causing a shift of galaxy stellar mass function of the same amount. Finally, using a 4.5 μm-selected sample instead of a Ks-selected one, we add a new population of highly absorbed, dusty galaxies at z~=2-3 of relatively low masses, yielding stronger constraints on the slope of the galaxy stellar mass function at lower masses.

  14. Social Pedagogy in Spain: From academic and professional reconstruction to scientific and social uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martí Xavier March Cerdà

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction and aims: A reflection on the reality of Social Pedagogy in Spain during the second decade of the 21st century from an analytical perspective, with the aim of finding out and recognising its weak points, its strong points, its challenges and its opportunities. The analysis centres on reviewing Social Pedagogy as a key discipline  in the reconstruction of Educational Sci- ences and a socio-educational response to the demands and needs of society and the Welfare State. Analysis of the current situation is completed with research into Social Education studies. The sphere of reference is made up of the group of universities offering social education courses in Spain. The variables structuring the data capture were: 1 the structure of the offer, 2 the fea- tures of the courses offered, and 3 course results. Methodology: The sample taken was structural in nature, selecting 11 universities holding the courses in three areas of Spain - the North, Central and Southern Spain and the Mediterranean region. Information was gathered using two comple- mentary methodologies, a questionnaire, falling within the context of the Ibero-American Social Education Society (SIPS, and a review of the web sites of the universities offering courses in so- cial education. Data processing and analysis: The analysis was carried out in two complementary stages. First of all, the closed questions were processed using SPSS and then the digital records of the open questions were processed using the NVIVO program. Results: The large majority of the courses on offer are classroom-based, with some distance learning courses being available. The average size of the courses was around 87 places. It should be pointed out that the double degree in Social Education and Social Work on offer is merely symbolic. There is multi-departmental in- volvement in teaching the Degree, although a larger role is played by the Pedagogy departments and all socio-educational fields are

  15. The Frequency of AVN Following Reconstructive Hip Surgery in Children With Cerebral Palsy: A Systematic Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hesketh, Kim; Leveille, Lise; Mulpuri, Kishore

    2016-03-01

    Children with cerebral palsy (CP) undergoing reconstructive hip surgery are at risk for developing avascular necrosis (AVN). The purpose of this systematic review was to investigate the reported frequency of AVN, the amount and quality of literature available, and possibly identity risk factors for developing AVN following reconstructive surgery for hip displacement in children with CP. We performed a review of the literature using EMBASE and MEDLINE databases. Studies investigating the outcome of reconstructive hip surgery in patients with CP that identified the presence or absence of AVN were included. Study quality was assessed using the Methodological Index for Non-Randomized Studies and the Oxford Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine scale. Three hundred and ninety-nine articles were identified using our search strategy. Twenty-nine studies were included for data extraction after full-text review. The frequency of AVN ranged from 0% to 46% with an overall rate across studies of 7.5%. Presence of AVN was the primary outcome in 2 studies. The frequency of AVN in these studies was significantly higher than other studies at 37% and 46%. No statistically significant associations were found between age at surgery, severity of hip subluxation, length of follow-up, or type of surgery (combined varus derotation osteotomy and pelvic osteotomy vs. varus derotation osteotomy alone), and the rate of AVN. The majority of studies did not comment on methods used for determining diagnosis or severity of AVN and clinical significance was not well documented. Children with CP undergoing reconstructive hip surgery are at risk of developing AVN. Frequency and severity of this complication is poorly documented in the literature. On the basis of current evidence no significant risk factors were identified; however, it is not possible to draw firm conclusions about them. Incidence of AVN was higher in studies in which AVN was a primary outcome suggesting that the true frequency of AVN

  16. Control of systematic uncertainties in the storage ring search for an electric dipole moment by measuring the electric quadrupole moment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrzej Magiera

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Measurements of electric dipole moment (EDM for light hadrons with use of a storage ring have been proposed. The expected effect is very small, therefore various subtle effects need to be considered. In particular, interaction of particle’s magnetic dipole moment and electric quadrupole moment with electromagnetic field gradients can produce an effect of a similar order of magnitude as that expected for EDM. This paper describes a very promising method employing an rf Wien filter, allowing to disentangle that contribution from the genuine EDM effect. It is shown that both these effects could be separated by the proper setting of the rf Wien filter frequency and phase. In the EDM measurement the magnitude of systematic uncertainties plays a key role and they should be under strict control. It is shown that particles’ interaction with field gradients offers also the possibility to estimate global systematic uncertainties with the precision necessary for an EDM measurement with the planned accuracy.

  17. Control of systematic uncertainties in the storage ring search for an electric dipole moment by measuring the electric quadrupole moment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magiera, Andrzej

    2017-09-01

    Measurements of electric dipole moment (EDM) for light hadrons with use of a storage ring have been proposed. The expected effect is very small, therefore various subtle effects need to be considered. In particular, interaction of particle's magnetic dipole moment and electric quadrupole moment with electromagnetic field gradients can produce an effect of a similar order of magnitude as that expected for EDM. This paper describes a very promising method employing an rf Wien filter, allowing to disentangle that contribution from the genuine EDM effect. It is shown that both these effects could be separated by the proper setting of the rf Wien filter frequency and phase. In the EDM measurement the magnitude of systematic uncertainties plays a key role and they should be under strict control. It is shown that particles' interaction with field gradients offers also the possibility to estimate global systematic uncertainties with the precision necessary for an EDM measurement with the planned accuracy.

  18. Investigation of systematic uncertainties on the measurement of the top-quark mass using lepton transverse momenta

    CERN Document Server

    The ATLAS collaboration

    2018-01-01

    This study investigates the impact of systematic uncertainties on a top-quark mass ($m_\\text{top}$) measurement in the lepton+jets channel with the ATLAS experiment at the LHC. For the study, simulated $t\\bar{t}$ events with lepton+jets final states at a centre of mass energy of 8 TeV are used. In contrast to other analyses, this study is designed to exploit the dependence of the lepton kinematics on the top-quark mass, by parameterising the lepton's transverse momentum distribution with MC simulations. Due to its different systematic uncertainty, this method can potentially contribute to a more accurate measurement of $m_\\text{top}$. The overall uncertainty in this study is 2.3 GeV, dominated by the current uncertainty on initial and final state radiation. Since the result depends on the modelling of the top-quark transverse momentum, it is sensitive to higher order QCD corrections. The influence of such corrections is estimated by reweighting the next-to-leading-order MC prediction by next-to-next-to-leadin...

  19. Uncertainty analysis of an interfacial area reconstruction algorithm and its application to two group interfacial area transport equation validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dave, A.J.; Manera, A.; Beyer, M.; Lucas, D.; Prasser, H.-M.

    2016-01-01

    Wire mesh sensors (WMS) are state of the art devices that allow high resolution (in space and time) measurement of 2D void fraction distribution over a wide range of two-phase flow regimes, from bubbly to annular. Data using WMS have been recorded at the Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf (HZDR) (Lucas et al., 2010; Beyer et al., 2008; Prasser et al., 2003) for a wide combination of superficial gas and liquid velocities, providing an excellent database for advances in two-phase flow modeling. In two-phase flow, the interfacial area plays an integral role in coupling the mass, momentum and energy transport equations of the liquid and gas phase. While current models used in best-estimate thermal-hydraulic codes (e.g. RELAP5, TRACE, TRACG, etc.) are still based on algebraic correlations for the estimation of the interfacial area in different flow regimes, interfacial area transport equations (IATE) have been proposed to predict the dynamic propagation in space and time of interfacial area (Ishii and Hibiki, 2010). IATE models are still under development and the HZDR WMS experimental data provide an excellent basis for the validation and further advance of these models. The current paper is focused on the uncertainty analysis of algorithms used to reconstruct interfacial area densities from the void-fraction voxel data measured using WMS and their application towards validation efforts of two-group IATE models. In previous research efforts, a surface triangularization algorithm has been developed in order to estimate the surface area of individual bubbles recorded with the WMS, and estimate the interfacial area in the given flow condition. In the present paper, synthetically generated bubbles are used to assess the algorithm’s accuracy. As the interfacial area of the synthetic bubbles are defined by user inputs, the error introduced by the algorithm can be quantitatively obtained. The accuracy of interfacial area measurements is characterized for different bubbles

  20. Uncertainty analysis of an interfacial area reconstruction algorithm and its application to two group interfacial area transport equation validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dave, A.J., E-mail: akshayjd@umich.edu [Department of Nuclear Engineering and Rad. Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48105 (United States); Manera, A. [Department of Nuclear Engineering and Rad. Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48105 (United States); Beyer, M.; Lucas, D. [Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf, Institute of Fluid Dynamics, 01314 Dresden (Germany); Prasser, H.-M. [Department of Mechanical and Process Engineering, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich (Switzerland)

    2016-12-15

    Wire mesh sensors (WMS) are state of the art devices that allow high resolution (in space and time) measurement of 2D void fraction distribution over a wide range of two-phase flow regimes, from bubbly to annular. Data using WMS have been recorded at the Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf (HZDR) (Lucas et al., 2010; Beyer et al., 2008; Prasser et al., 2003) for a wide combination of superficial gas and liquid velocities, providing an excellent database for advances in two-phase flow modeling. In two-phase flow, the interfacial area plays an integral role in coupling the mass, momentum and energy transport equations of the liquid and gas phase. While current models used in best-estimate thermal-hydraulic codes (e.g. RELAP5, TRACE, TRACG, etc.) are still based on algebraic correlations for the estimation of the interfacial area in different flow regimes, interfacial area transport equations (IATE) have been proposed to predict the dynamic propagation in space and time of interfacial area (Ishii and Hibiki, 2010). IATE models are still under development and the HZDR WMS experimental data provide an excellent basis for the validation and further advance of these models. The current paper is focused on the uncertainty analysis of algorithms used to reconstruct interfacial area densities from the void-fraction voxel data measured using WMS and their application towards validation efforts of two-group IATE models. In previous research efforts, a surface triangularization algorithm has been developed in order to estimate the surface area of individual bubbles recorded with the WMS, and estimate the interfacial area in the given flow condition. In the present paper, synthetically generated bubbles are used to assess the algorithm’s accuracy. As the interfacial area of the synthetic bubbles are defined by user inputs, the error introduced by the algorithm can be quantitatively obtained. The accuracy of interfacial area measurements is characterized for different bubbles

  1. Systematic assembly homogenization and local flux reconstruction for nodal method calculations of fast reactor power distributions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dorning, J.J.

    1991-01-01

    A simultaneous pin lattice cell and fuel bundle homogenization theory has been developed for use with nodal diffusion calculations of practical reactors. The theoretical development of the homogenization theory, which is based on multiple-scales asymptotic expansion methods carried out through fourth order in a small parameter, starts from the transport equation and systematically yields: a cell-homogenized bundled diffusion equation with self-consistent expressions for the cell-homogenized cross sections and diffusion tensor elements; and a bundle-homogenized global reactor diffusion equation with self-consistent expressions for the bundle-homogenized cross sections and diffusion tensor elements. The continuity of the angular flux at cell and bundle interfaces also systematically yields jump conditions for the scaler flux or so-called flux discontinuity factors on the cell and bundle interfaces in terms of the two adjacent cell or bundle eigenfunctions. The expressions required for the reconstruction of the angular flux or the 'de-homogenization' theory were obtained as an integral part of the development; hence the leading order transport theory angular flux is easily reconstructed throughout the reactor including the regions in the interior of the fuel bundles or computational nodes and in the interiors of the pin lattice cells. The theoretical development shows that the exact transport theory angular flux is obtained to first order from the whole-reactor nodal diffusion calculations, done using the homogenized nuclear data and discontinuity factors, is a product of three computed quantities: a ''cell shape function''; a ''bundle shape function''; and a ''global shape function''. 10 refs

  2. Alloplastic mandibular reconstruction: a systematic review and meta-analysis of the current century case series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadr-Eshkevari, Pooyan; Rashad, Ashkan; Vahdati, Seyed Aliakbar; Garajei, Ata; Bohluli, Behnam; Maurer, Peter

    2013-09-01

    Alloplastic mandibular reconstruction remains insufficiently predictable, with no systematic reviews to assess its scope and limitations. The PubMed, CINAHL, EMBASE, and Web of Science databases were searched for English study reports, published in the current century, of mere alloplastic surgical reconstruction of mandibular ablative defects. In 14 articles, there were 944 patients, with a median age of 58.7 years (interquartile range, 53.2 to 62 years); 58.7 percent (interquartile range, 66.7 to 78.6 percent) were male. Cases of squamous cell carcinoma per study constituted 93.5 percent (interquartile range, 81.5 to 100 percent). Defects were mostly lateral (Boyd classification) (60.5 percent; interquartile range, 56.2 to 62 percent) and received mostly conventional bridging plates (in 64.3 percent of the studies) and pedicled flaps (45.3 percent; interquartile range, 37.1 to 58.3 percent); 60.7 percent (interquartile range, 53.5 to 58.8 percent) received adjuvant therapy. At 32-month follow-up, the complication and failure rates were 40.1 percent (interquartile range, 26.7 to 58.6 percent) and 30.8 percent (interquartile range, 11.7 to 48.1 percent), respectively. The overall survival rate was 55 percent (interquartile range, 27.8 to 74 percent). Radiotherapy seemed to be a relative risk factor for complications (1.387; p = 0.014) and plate loss (1.585; p = 0.006). Crossing the midline seemed to be a relative risk factor for plate exposure (1.533; p = 0.000) and overall complications (1.385; p = 0.002). The results should be generalized cautiously. Alloplastic reconstructive surgery faces a remarkable lack of evidence. Relatively high complication and failure rates are areas of further concern.

  3. Commissioning of the double Penning trap system MLLTRAP and first studies on mass-dependent systematic uncertainties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krug, Kevin; Weber, Christine; Thirolf, Peter G.; Szerypo, Jerzy; Gartzke, Eva; Habs, Dietrich [Fakultaet fuer Physik, LMU Muenchen (Germany); Kolhinen, Veli [Fakultaet fuer Physik, LMU Muenchen (Germany); Department of Physics, University of Jyvaeskylae (Finland)

    2010-07-01

    The cylindrical double Penning trap system MLLTRAP in its commissioning phase at the Maier-Leibnitz-Laboratory (MLL) Tandem accelerator in Garching is designed to perform high-accuracy mass measurements on fusion-reaction products. As the mass uncertainty is inversely proportional to the ionic charge state, the ions of interest will be charge bred prior to injection into the Penning trap system. In the future setup, both traps are foreseen to be operated as measurement traps with a relative homogeneity of the magnetic field at the trapping sites of {delta}B/B{<=}0.3 ppm. In the commissioning phase, an offline surface ionization source is used for iterative optimization of the apparatus and studies on mass-dependent systematic uncertainties. Mass measurements via the time-of-flight ion cyclotron resonance method (TOF-ICR) of reference ions with well-known masses ({sup 85}Rb, {sup 87}Rb, {sup 39}K, {sup 133}Cs) were carried out to analyze mass-dependent systematic effects. Together with previous studies on the uncertainty due to magnetic-field fluctuations the current status with respect to the limits of mass accuracy of the apparatus is presented.

  4. An integrative systematic framework helps to reconstruct skeletal evolution of glass sponges (Porifera, Hexactinellida).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dohrmann, Martin; Kelley, Christopher; Kelly, Michelle; Pisera, Andrzej; Hooper, John N A; Reiswig, Henry M

    2017-01-01

    Glass sponges (Class Hexactinellida) are important components of deep-sea ecosystems and are of interest from geological and materials science perspectives. The reconstruction of their phylogeny with molecular data has only recently begun and shows a better agreement with morphology-based systematics than is typical for other sponge groups, likely because of a greater number of informative morphological characters. However, inconsistencies remain that have far-reaching implications for hypotheses about the evolution of their major skeletal construction types (body plans). Furthermore, less than half of all described extant genera have been sampled for molecular systematics, and several taxa important for understanding skeletal evolution are still missing. Increased taxon sampling for molecular phylogenetics of this group is therefore urgently needed. However, due to their remote habitat and often poorly preserved museum material, sequencing all 126 currently recognized extant genera will be difficult to achieve. Utilizing morphological data to incorporate unsequenced taxa into an integrative systematics framework therefore holds great promise, but it is unclear which methodological approach best suits this task. Here, we increase the taxon sampling of four previously established molecular markers (18S, 28S, and 16S ribosomal DNA, as well as cytochrome oxidase subunit I) by 12 genera, for the first time including representatives of the order Aulocalycoida and the type genus of Dactylocalycidae, taxa that are key to understanding hexactinellid body plan evolution. Phylogenetic analyses suggest that Aulocalycoida is diphyletic and provide further support for the paraphyly of order Hexactinosida; hence these orders are abolished from the Linnean classification. We further assembled morphological character matrices to integrate so far unsequenced genera into phylogenetic analyses in maximum parsimony (MP), maximum likelihood (ML), Bayesian, and morphology-based binning

  5. Graft Utilization in the Bridging Reconstruction of Irreparable Rotator Cuff Tears: A Systematic Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewington, Matthew R; Ferguson, Devin P; Smith, T Duncan; Burks, Robert; Coady, Catherine; Wong, Ivan Ho-Bun

    2017-11-01

    Rotator cuff tears are one of the most common conditions affecting the shoulder. Because of the difficulty in managing massive rotator cuff tears and the inability of standard techniques to prevent arthropathy, surgeons have developed several novel techniques to improve outcomes and ideally alter the natural history. To systematically review the existing literature and analyze reported outcomes to evaluate the effectiveness of using a bridging graft reconstruction technique to treat large to massive irreparable rotator cuff tears. Systematic review. A systematic search of PubMed, EMBASE, CINAHL, and CENTRAL was employed with the key terms "tear," "allograft," and "rotator cuff." Eligibility was determined by a 3-phase screening process according to the outlined inclusion/exclusion criteria. Data in relation to the primary and secondary outcomes were summarized. The results were synthesized according to the origin of the graft and the level of evidence. Fifteen studies in total were included in this review: 2 comparative studies and 13 observational case series. Both the biceps tendon and the fascia lata autograft groups had significantly superior structural integrity rates on magnetic resonance imaging at 12-month minimum follow-up when compared with their partial primary repair counterparts (58% vs 26%, P = .036; 79% vs 58%, P rotator cuff tears demonstrated high structural healing rates (74%-90%, 73%-100%, and 60%-90%, respectively). Additionally, both comparative studies and case series demonstrated a general improvement of patients' functional outcome scores. Using a graft for an anatomic bridging rotator cuff repair results in improved function on objective testing and may be functionally better than nonanatomic or partial repair of large to massive rotator cuff tears. Allograft or xenograft techniques appear to be favorable options, given demonstrated functional improvement, imaging-supported graft survival, and lack of harvest complication risk. More high

  6. A systematic approach to assessing measurement uncertainty for CO2 emissions from coal-fired power plants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wagner, Claas; Esbensen, Kim

    2011-01-01

    An augmented measurement uncertainty approach for CO2 emissions from coal-fired power plants with a focus on the often forgotten contributions from sampling errors occurring over the entire fuel-to-emission pathway is presented. Current methods for CO2 emission determination are evaluated in detail......, from which a general matrix scheme is developed that includes all factors and stages needed for total CO2 determination, which is applied to the monitoring plan of a representative medium-sized coal-fired power plant. In particular sampling involved significant potential errors, as identified...... of these three materials were also given full attention. A systematic error (bias) is present in the current sampling approach, which increases the present uncertainty estimate unnecessarily. For both primary sampling and analytical sample extraction steps, random variations, which hitherto only have been...

  7. Systematic Uncertainties in Black Hole Masses Determined from Single Epoch Spectra

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Denney, Kelly D.; Peterson, Bradley M.; Dietrich, Matthias

    2008-01-01

    We explore the nature of systematic errors that can arise in measurement of black hole masses from single-epoch spectra of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) by utilizing the many epochs available for NGC 5548 and PG1229+204 from reverberation mapping databases. In particular, we examine systematics due...

  8. Field reconstruction and estimation of the antenna support structure effect on the measurement uncertainty of the BTS1940 antenna

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cappellin, Cecilia; Pivnenko, Sergey

    2014-01-01

    the effect of the support structure on the measured field, by reconstructing the currents induced on the support frame with DIATOOL. The field obtained by filtering these currents is presented. Moreover, the spatial resolution obtained by the 3D reconstruction is discussed and compared with the one obtained...

  9. A multicenter study to quantify systematic variations and associated uncertainties in source positioning with commonly used HDR afterloaders and ring applicators for the treatment of cervical carcinomas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Awunor, O., E-mail: onuora.awunor@stees.nhs.uk [The Medical Physics Department, The James Cook University Hospital, Marton Road, Middlesbrough TS4 3BW, England (United Kingdom); Berger, D. [Department of Radiotherapy, General Hospital of Vienna, Vienna A-1090 (Austria); Kirisits, C. [Department of Radiotherapy, Comprehensive Cancer Center, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna A-1090 (Austria)

    2015-08-15

    Purpose: The reconstruction of radiation source position in the treatment planning system is a key part of the applicator reconstruction process in high dose rate (HDR) brachytherapy treatment of cervical carcinomas. The steep dose gradients, of as much as 12%/mm, associated with typical cervix treatments emphasize the importance of accurate and precise determination of source positions. However, a variety of methodologies with a range in associated measurement uncertainties, of up to ±2.5 mm, are currently employed by various centers to do this. In addition, a recent pilot study by Awunor et al. [“Direct reconstruction and associated uncertainties of {sup 192}Ir source dwell positions in ring applicators using gafchromic film in the treatment planning of HDR brachytherapy cervix patients,” Phys. Med. Biol. 58, 3207–3225 (2013)] reported source positional differences of up to 2.6 mm between ring sets of the same type and geometry. This suggests a need for a comprehensive study to assess and quantify systematic source position variations between commonly used ring applicators and HDR afterloaders across multiple centers. Methods: Eighty-six rings from 20 European brachytherapy centers were audited in the form of a postal audit with each center collecting the data independently. The data were collected by setting up the rings using a bespoke jig and irradiating gafchromic films at predetermined dwell positions using four afterloader types, MicroSelectron, Flexitron, GammaMed, and MultiSource, from three manufacturers, Nucletron, Varian, and Eckert & Ziegler BEBIG. Five different ring types in six sizes (Ø25–Ø35 mm) and two angles (45° and 60°) were used. Coordinates of irradiated positions relative to the ring center were determined and collated, and source position differences quantified by ring type, size, and angle. Results: The mean expanded measurement uncertainty (k = 2) along the direction of source travel was ±1.4 mm. The standard deviation

  10. A systematic approach to the modelling of measurements for uncertainty evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sommer, K D; Weckenmann, A; Siebert, B R L

    2005-01-01

    The evaluation of measurement uncertainty is based on both, the knowledge about the measuring process and the quantities which influence the measurement result. The knowledge about the measuring process is represented by the model equation which expresses the interrelation between the measurand and the input quantities. Therefore, the modelling of the measurement is a key element of modern uncertainty evaluation. A modelling concept has been developed that is based on the idea of the measuring chain. It gets on with only a few generic model structures. From this concept, a practical stepwise procedure has been derived

  11. A Systematic Review of the Role of Robotics in Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery—From Inception to the Future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas D. Dobbs

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundThe use of robots in surgery has become commonplace in many specialties. In this systematic review, we report on the current uses of robotics in plastic and reconstructive surgery and looks to future roles for robotics in this arena.MethodsA systematic literature search of Medline, EMBASE, and Scopus was performed using appropriate search terms in order to identify all applications of robot-assistance in plastic and reconstructive surgery. All articles were reviewed by two authors and a qualitative synthesis performed of those articles that met the inclusion criteria. The systematic review and results were conducted and reported in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta Analysis (PRISMA guidelines.ResultsA total of 7,904 articles were identified for title and abstract review. Sixty-eight studies met the inclusion criteria. Robotic assistance in plastic and reconstructive surgery is still in its infancy, with areas such as trans-oral robotic surgery and microvascular procedures the dominant areas of interest currently. A number of benefits have been shown over conventional open surgery, such as improved access and greater dexterity; however, these must be balanced against disadvantages such as the lack of haptic feedback and cost implications.ConclusionThe feasibility of robotic plastic surgery has been demonstrated in several specific indications. As technology, knowledge, and skills in this area improve, these techniques have the potential to contribute positively to patient and provider experience and outcomes.

  12. Effect of Market Price Uncertainties on the Design of Optimal Biorefinery Systems—A Systematic Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cheali, Peam; Quaglia, Alberto; Gernaey, Krist V.

    2014-01-01

    the design space, generic but simple models describing the processing tasks, and the formulation and solution of an MINLP problem under deterministic and stochastic conditions to identify the optimal processing route for multiple raw materials and products. Furthermore, we evaluate the impact of market price...... uncertainties on the optimal solutions and calculate the associated risk to enable informed and risk-aware decisions....

  13. Measure of the uncertainty associated with the reconstruction of applicators in adaptive guided brachytherapy by resonance; Medida de la incertidumbre asociada a la reconstruccion de aplicadores en braquiterapia adaptativa guiada por resonancia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Torres Pozas, S.; Federico, M.; Perez Molina, J. L.; Marti Asenjo, J.; Sanchez Carrascal, M.; Macias verde, D.; Ruiz Egea, E.; Lara Jimenez, P.; Martin Oliva, R.

    2013-07-01

    The objective of this study is to assess the uncertainty introduced in the process to rebuild the catheters using three methods, manual reconstruction from a template elaborate service, auto-rebuild with the software included in the TPS and reconstruction from radiopaque mannequins in CT and subsequent merger. (Author)

  14. Women's expectations of breast reconstruction following mastectomy for breast cancer: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flitcroft, Kathy; Brennan, Meagan; Spillane, Andrew

    2017-08-01

    Breast reconstruction (BR) makes an important positive contribution to the quality of life of many women who have undergone mastectomy for breast cancer. The purpose of this article is to evaluate the evidence for possible relationships between women's expectations of BR and their satisfaction with outcomes to inform and facilitate improved communication about BR options prior to initial surgery. A systematic review of the literature reporting expectations of BR published between 1 January 1994 and 6 March 2017 identified 2107 initial search results. Twenty-one publications, reporting 20 studies (2288 participants), satisfied the selection criteria. Information on study aim and time frame, participation rate, design/methods, limitations/bias, results and conclusions, as well as participant clinical and demographic information, was reported. An overall quality score was generated for each study. Four of five studies that quantified expectations and satisfaction found a positive relationship between the two. This may indicate a possible trend, but as 16 of the 21 included publications did not provide quantifiable data, no firm conclusions are possible. Our findings have important implications for policy and practice which are applicable to medical decision-making more broadly. There is a clear need to utilise accurate and consistent measures of patient-reported expectations and to educate both patients and health practitioners about the importance of informed discussion about treatment options. This is particularly salient for women facing a choice about BR, a major breast cancer survivorship decision. Routine use of an expectations checklist in pre-operative consultations may be useful.

  15. Return to Sport-Specific Performance After Primary Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction: A Systematic Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohtadi, Nicholas G; Chan, Denise S

    2017-10-01

    Physicians counseling athletes on the prognosis of sport-specific performance outcomes after anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction (ACLR) depend on the published literature. However, critical appraisal of the validity and biases in these studies is required to understand how ACLR affects an athlete's ability to return to sport, the athlete's sport-specific performance, and his or her ability to achieve preinjury levels of performance. This review identifies the published prognostic studies evaluating sport-specific performance outcomes after ACLR. A risk of bias assessment and summaries of return to sport and career longevity results are provided for each included study. Systematic review. Electronic databases (Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and PUBMED) were searched via a defined search strategy with no limits, to identify relevant studies for inclusion in the review. A priori defined eligibility criteria included studies measuring sport-specific performance within an athlete's sport, before and after primary ACLR. Reference lists of eligible studies were hand-searched for additional relevant studies. Data extraction was performed by use of a standardized spreadsheet. Each included study was assessed by use of 6 bias domains of the Quality in Prognosis Studies tool to critically appraise study participation, study attrition, prognostic factors, outcome measurement, confounders, and statistical analysis and reporting. Two authors independently performed each stage of the review and reached consensus through discussion. Fifteen pertinent prognostic studies evaluated sport-specific performance outcomes and/or return to play after ACLR for athletes participating in competitive soccer, football, ice hockey, basketball, Alpine ski, X-Games ski and snowboarding, and baseball. Twelve of these studies were considered to have a high level of bias. This review demonstrated that most high

  16. Improving LiDAR Biomass Model Uncertainty through Non-Destructive Allometry and Plot-level 3D Reconstruction with Terrestrial Laser Scanning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stovall, A. E.; Shugart, H. H., Jr.

    2017-12-01

    Future NASA and ESA satellite missions plan to better quantify global carbon through detailed observations of forest structure, but ultimately rely on uncertain ground measurement approaches for calibration and validation. A significant amount of the uncertainty in estimating plot-level biomass can be attributed to inadequate and unrepresentative allometric relationships used to convert plot-level tree measurements to estimates of aboveground biomass. These allometric equations are known to have high errors and biases, particularly in carbon rich forests because they were calibrated with small and often biased samples of destructively harvested trees. To overcome this issue, a non-destructive methodology for estimating tree and plot-level biomass has been proposed through the use of Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS). We investigated the potential for using TLS as a ground validation approach in LiDAR-based biomass mapping though virtual plot-level tree volume reconstruction and biomass estimation. Plot-level biomass estimates were compared on the Virginia-based Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute's SIGEO forest with full 3D reconstruction, TLS allometry, and Jenkins et al. (2003) allometry. On average, full 3D reconstruction ultimately provided the lowest uncertainty estimate of plot-level biomass (9.6%), followed by TLS allometry (16.9%) and the national equations (20.2%). TLS offered modest improvements to the airborne LiDAR empirical models, reducing RMSE from 16.2% to 14%. Our findings suggest TLS plot acquisitions and non-destructive allometry can play a vital role for reducing uncertainty in calibration and validation data for biomass mapping in the upcoming NASA and ESA missions.

  17. Community health nursing practices in contexts of poverty, uncertainty and unpredictability: a systematization of personal experiences

    OpenAIRE

    Laperrière,Hélène

    2007-01-01

    Several years of professional nursing practices, while living in the poorest neighbourhoods in the outlying areas of Brazil's Amazon region, have led the author to develop a better understanding of marginalized populations. Providing care to people with leprosy and sex workers in riverside communities has taken place in conditions of uncertainty, insecurity, unpredictability and institutional violence. The question raised is how we can develop community health nursing practices in this contex...

  18. ERESYE - a expert system for the evaluation of uncertainties related to systematic experimental errors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinelli, T.; Panini, G.C.; Amoroso, A.

    1989-11-01

    Information about systematic errors are not given In EXFOR, the data base of nuclear experimental measurements: their assessment is committed to the ability of the evaluator. A tool Is needed which performs this task in a fully automatic way or, at least, gives a valuable aid. The expert system ERESYE has been implemented for investigating the feasibility of an automatic evaluation of the systematic errors in the experiments. The features of the project which led to the implementation of the system are presented. (author)

  19. A systematic framework for enterprise-wide optimization: Synthesis and design of processing network under uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Quaglia, Alberto; Sarup, Bent; Sin, Gürkan

    2013-01-01

    technologies andproduct portfolio) which is feasible and have optimal performances over the entire uncertainty domain.Through the integration of different methods, tools, algorithms and databases, the framework guidesthe user in dealing with the mathematical complexity of the problems, allowing efficient...... formulationand solution of large and complex enterprise-wide optimization problem. Tools for the analysis of theuncertainty, of its consequences on the decision-making process and for the identification of strategiesto mitigate its impact on network performances are integrated in the framework. A decomposition...

  20. A systematic review of functional outcome and quality of life following reconstruction of maxillofacial defects using vascularized free fibula flaps and dental rehabilitation reveals poor data quality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijbenga, Johan G.; Schepers, Rutger H.; Werker, Paul M. N.; Witjes, Max J. H.; Dijkstra, Pieter U.

    Background: Reconstruction and oral rehabilitation of segmental maxillofacial defects resulting from ablative surgery is commonly achieved by osteocutaneous vascularized free fibula (VFFF) transplantation combined with implant-supported dental prostheses. We systematically reviewed the literature

  1. Knee flexor strength recovery following hamstring tendon harvest for anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction: a systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clare Ardern

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available The hamstring tendons are an increasingly popular graft choice for anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction due to preservation of quadriceps function and the absence of anterior knee pain post-operatively. Two commonly used hamstring grafts are a quadruple strand semitendinosus graft (4ST and a double strand semitendinosus-double strand gracilis graft (2ST-2G. It has been suggested that concurrent harvest of the semitendinsous and gracilis tendons may result in sub-optimal hamstring strength recovery as the gracilis may play a role in reinforcing the semitendinosus particularly in deep knee flexion angles. The objective of this systematic review was to synthesize the findings of available literature and determine whether semitendinosus and gracilis harvest lead to post-operative hamstring strength deficits when compared to semitendinosus harvest alone. Seven studies were identified which compared hamstring strength outcomes between the common hamstring graft types. The methodological quality of each paper was assessed, and where possible effect sizes were calculated to allow comparison of results across studies. No differences were reported between the groups in isokinetic hamstring strength. Deficits in hamstring strength were reported in the 2ST-2G groups when compared to the 4ST groups in isometric strength testing at knee flexion angles ≥70°, and in the standing knee flexion angle. Preliminary evidence exists to support the hypothesis that harvesting the semitendinosus tendon alone is preferable to harvesting in combination with the gracilis tendon for minimizing post-operative hamstring strength deficits at knee flexion angles greater than 70°. However, due to the paucity of research comparing strength outcomes between the common hamstring graft types, further investigation is warranted to fully elucidate the implications for graft harvest.

  2. Short branches lead to systematic artifacts when BLAST searches are used as surrogate for phylogenetic reconstruction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dick, Amanda A; Harlow, Timothy J; Gogarten, J Peter

    2017-02-01

    Long Branch Attraction (LBA) is a well-known artifact in phylogenetic reconstruction when dealing with branch length heterogeneity. Here we show another phenomenon, Short Branch Attraction (SBA), which occurs when BLAST searches, a phenetic analysis, are used as a surrogate method for phylogenetic analysis. This error also results from branch length heterogeneity, but this time it is the short branches that are attracting. The SBA artifact is reciprocal and can be returned 100% of the time when multiple branches differ in length by a factor of more than two. SBA is an intended feature of BLAST searches, but becomes an issue, when top scoring BLAST hit analyses are used to infer Horizontal Gene Transfers (HGTs), assign taxonomic category with environmental sequence data in phylotyping, or gather homologous sequences for building gene families. SBA can lead researchers to believe that there has been a HGT event when only vertical descent has occurred, cause slowly evolving taxa to be over-represented and quickly evolving taxa to be under-represented in phylotyping, or systematically exclude quickly evolving taxa from analyses. SBA also contributes to the changing results of top scoring BLAST hit analyses as the database grows, because more slowly evolving taxa, or short branches, are added over time, introducing more potential for SBA. SBA can be detected by examining reciprocal best BLAST hits among a larger group of taxa, including the known closest phylogenetic neighbors. Therefore, one should look for this phenomenon when conducting best BLAST hit analyses as a surrogate method to identify HGTs, in phylotyping, or when using BLAST to gather homologous sequences. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. A new approach to systematic uncertainties and self-consistency in helium abundance determinations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aver, Erik; Olive, Keith A.; Skillman, Evan D.

    2010-01-01

    Tests of big bang nucleosynthesis and early universe cosmology require precision measurements for helium abundance determinations. However, efforts to determine the primordial helium abundance via observations of metal poor H II regions have been limited by significant uncertainties (compared with the value inferred from BBN theory using the CMB determined value of the baryon density). This work builds upon previous work by providing an updated and extended program in evaluating these uncertainties. Procedural consistency is achieved by integrating the hydrogen based reddening correction with the helium based abundance calculation, i.e., all physical parameters are solved for simultaneously. We include new atomic data for helium recombination and collisional emission based upon recent work by Porter \\etal and wavelength dependent corrections to underlying absorption are investigated. The set of physical parameters has been expanded here to include the effects of neutral hydrogen collisional emission. It is noted that Hγ and Hδ allow better isolation of the collisional effects from the reddening. Because of a degeneracy between the solutions for density and temperature, the precision of the helium abundance determinations is limited. Also, at lower temperatures (T ∼ p as 0.2561 ± 0.0108, in broad agreement with the WMAP result. Alternatively, a simple average of the data yields Y p 0.2566 ± 0.0028. Tests with synthetic data show a potential for distinct improvement, via removal of underlying absorption, using higher resolution spectra. A small bias in the abundance determination can be reduced significantly and the calculated helium abundance error can be reduced by ∼ 25%

  4. Efficacy and Safety of Autologous Fat Transfer in Facial Reconstructive Surgery: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krastev, Todor K; Beugels, Jip; Hommes, Juliette; Piatkowski, Andrzej; Mathijssen, Irene; van der Hulst, Rene

    2018-03-29

    The use of autologous fat transfer (AFT) or lipofilling for correcting contour deformities is seen as one of the major breakthroughs in reconstructive plastic surgery. Its applications in facial reconstructive surgery have been of particular interest owing to the prospect of achieving autologous reconstruction by a minimally invasive approach. However, its unpredictability and variable degree of resorption have limited its utility and much skepticism still exists regarding its efficacy. Furthermore, more than 2 decades of clinical research have produced a highly fragmented body of evidence that has not been able to provide definite answers. To investigate the safety and efficacy of AFT in facial reconstruction through a systematic review and meta-analysis. A literature search was performed in PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Library from inception to October 11, 2017. All published studies investigating the efficacy and safety of AFT in facial reconstructive surgery. Two independent reviewers performed data extraction systematically, adhering to the PRISMA guidelines. Summary measures were pooled in a random-effects model meta-analysis. The patient and surgeon satisfaction, graft survival, number of AFT sessions, and the incidence of AFT-related complications were the main outcomes of interest in this meta-analysis. This systematic review resulted in the inclusion 52 relevant studies consisting of 1568 unique patients. These included 4 randomized clinical trials, 11 cohort studies, and 37 case series. The overall follow-up averaged 1.3 years after AFT. Meta-analysis revealed a very high overall patient satisfaction rate of 91.1% (95% CI, 85.1%-94.8%) and overall surgeon satisfaction rate of 88.6% (95% CI, 83.4%-92.4%). The number of AFT sessions required to achieve the desired result was 1.5 (95% CI, 1.3-1.7) and 50% to 60% of the injected volume was retained at 1 year. Only 4.8% (95% CI, 3.3%-6.9%) of procedures resulted in clinical complications. To our knowledge

  5. Determination of electron beam polarization using electron detector in Compton polarimeter with less than 1% statistical and systematic uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Narayan, Amrendra [Mississippi State Univ., Mississippi State, MS (United States)

    2015-05-01

    The Q-weak experiment aims to measure the weak charge of proton with a precision of 4.2%. The proposed precision on weak charge required a 2.5% measurement of the parity violating asymmetry in elastic electron - proton scattering. Polarimetry was the largest experimental contribution to this uncertainty and a new Compton polarimeter was installed in Hall C at Jefferson Lab to make the goal achievable. In this polarimeter the electron beam collides with green laser light in a low gain Fabry-Perot Cavity; the scattered electrons are detected in 4 planes of a novel diamond micro strip detector while the back scattered photons are detected in lead tungstate crystals. This diamond micro-strip detector is the first such device to be used as a tracking detector in a nuclear and particle physics experiment. The diamond detectors are read out using custom built electronic modules that include a preamplifier, a pulse shaping amplifier and a discriminator for each detector micro-strip. We use field programmable gate array based general purpose logic modules for event selection and histogramming. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations and data acquisition simulations were performed to estimate the systematic uncertainties. Additionally, the Moller and Compton polarimeters were cross calibrated at low electron beam currents using a series of interleaved measurements. In this dissertation, we describe all the subsystems of the Compton polarimeter with emphasis on the electron detector. We focus on the FPGA based data acquisition system built by the author and the data analysis methods implemented by the author. The simulations of the data acquisition and the polarimeter that helped rigorously establish the systematic uncertainties of the polarimeter are also elaborated, resulting in the first sub 1% measurement of low energy (?1 GeV) electron beam polarization with a Compton electron detector. We have demonstrated that diamond based micro-strip detectors can be used for tracking in a

  6. Systematic approach for the design of sustainable supply chains under quality uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Medina-González, Sergio; Graells, Moisès; Guillén-Gosálbez, Gonzalo; Espuña, Antonio; Puigjaner, Luis

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • This methodology allows taking profit of the uneven biomass quality in the management of energy supply chains. • The proposed strategy allows the solution selection considering multiple decision criteria. • The proposed strategy facilitates decision-making avoiding subjectivity in the solution selection. • The resulting base model is generic and the strategy is flexible enough to be implemented in other real cases. - Abstract: Sustainable processes have recently awaked an increasing interest in the process systems engineering literature. In industry, this kind of problems inevitably required a multi-objective analysis to evaluate the environmental impact in addition to the economic performance. Bio-based processes have the potential to enhance the sustainability level of the energy sector. Nevertheless, such processes very often show variable conditions and present an uncertain behavior. The approaches presented for solving multi-objective problems under uncertainty have neglected the potential effects of different quality streams on the overall system. Here, it is presented an alternative approach, based on a State Task Network formulation, capable of optimizing under uncertain conditions, considering multiple selection criteria and accounting for the material quality effect. The resulting set of Pareto solutions are then assessed using the Elimination and Choice Expressing Reality-IV method, which identify the ones showing better overall performance considering the uncertain parameters space.

  7. Economic Analyses in Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction: A Qualitative and Systematic Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saltzman, Bryan M; Cvetanovich, Gregory L; Nwachukwu, Benedict U; Mall, Nathan A; Bush-Joseph, Charles A; Bach, Bernard R

    2016-05-01

    As the health care system in the United States (US) transitions toward value-based care, there is an increased emphasis on understanding the cost drivers and high-value procedures within orthopaedics. To date, there has been no systematic review of the economic literature on anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction (ACLR). To evaluate the overall evidence base for economic studies published on ACLR in the orthopaedic literature. Data available on the economics of ACLR are summarized and cost drivers associated with the procedure are identified. Systematic review. All economic studies (including US-based and non-US-based) published between inception of the MEDLINE database and October 3, 2014, were identified. Given the heterogeneity of the existing evidence base, a qualitative, descriptive approach was used to assess the collective results from the economic studies on ACLR. When applicable, comparisons were made for the following cost-related variables associated with the procedure for economic implications: outpatient versus inpatient surgery (or outpatient vs overnight hospital stay vs >1-night stay); bone-patellar tendon-bone (BPTB) graft versus hamstring (HS) graft source; autograft versus allograft source; staged unilateral ACLR versus bilateral ACLR in a single setting; single- versus double-bundle technique; ACLR versus nonoperative treatment; and other unique comparisons reported in single studies, including computer-assisted navigation surgery (CANS) versus traditional surgery, early versus delayed ACLR, single- versus double-incision technique, and finally the costs of ACLR without comparison of variables. A total of 24 studies were identified and included; of these, 17 included studies were cost identification studies. The remaining 7 studies were cost utility analyses that used economic models to investigate the effect of variables such as the cost of allograft tissue, fixation devices, and physical therapy, the percentage and timing of revision

  8. What Makes Hydrologic Models Differ? Using SUMMA to Systematically Explore Model Uncertainty and Error

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, A.; Nijssen, B.; Chegwidden, O.; Wood, A.; Clark, M. P.

    2017-12-01

    Model intercomparison experiments have been conducted to quantify the variability introduced during the model development process, but have had limited success in identifying the sources of this model variability. The Structure for Unifying Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA) has been developed as a framework which defines a general set of conservation equations for mass and energy as well as a common core of numerical solvers along with the ability to set options for choosing between different spatial discretizations and flux parameterizations. SUMMA can be thought of as a framework for implementing meta-models which allows for the investigation of the impacts of decisions made during the model development process. Through this flexibility we develop a hierarchy of definitions which allows for models to be compared to one another. This vocabulary allows us to define the notion of weak equivalence between model instantiations. Through this weak equivalence we develop the concept of model mimicry, which can be used to investigate the introduction of uncertainty and error during the modeling process as well as provide a framework for identifying modeling decisions which may complement or negate one another. We instantiate SUMMA instances that mimic the behaviors of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) by choosing modeling decisions which are implemented in each model. We compare runs from these models and their corresponding mimics across the Columbia River Basin located in the Pacific Northwest of the United States and Canada. From these comparisons, we are able to determine the extent to which model implementation has an effect on the results, as well as determine the changes in sensitivity of parameters due to these implementation differences. By examining these changes in results and sensitivities we can attempt to postulate changes in the modeling decisions which may provide better estimation of

  9. Quantifying uncertainty in coral Sr/Ca-based SST estimates from Orbicella faveolata: A basis for multi-colony SST reconstructions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richey, J. N.; Flannery, J. A.; Toth, L. T.; Kuffner, I. B.; Poore, R. Z.

    2017-12-01

    The Sr/Ca in massive corals can be used as a proxy for sea surface temperature (SST) in shallow tropical to sub-tropical regions; however, the relationship between Sr/Ca and SST varies throughout the ocean, between different species of coral, and often between different colonies of the same species. We aimed to quantify the uncertainty associated with the Sr/Ca-SST proxy due to sample handling (e.g., micro-drilling or analytical error), vital effects (e.g., among-colony differences in coral growth), and local-scale variability in microhabitat. We examine the intra- and inter-colony reproducibility of Sr/Ca records extracted from five modern Orbicella faveolata colonies growing in the Dry Tortugas, Florida, USA. The average intra-colony absolute difference (AD) in Sr/Ca of the five colonies during an overlapping interval (1997-2008) was 0.055 ± 0.044 mmol mol-1 (0.96 ºC) and the average inter-colony Sr/Ca AD was 0.039 ± 0.01 mmol mol-1 (0.51 ºC). All available Sr/Ca-SST data pairs from 1997-2008 were combined and regressed against the HadISST1 gridded SST data set (24 ºN and 82 ºW) to produce a calibration equation that could be applied to O. faveolata specimens from throughout the Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean/Atlantic region after accounting for the potential uncertainties in Sr/Ca-derived SSTs. We quantified a combined error term for O. faveolata using the root-sum-square (RMS) of the analytical, intra-, and inter-colony uncertainties and suggest that an overall uncertainty of 0.046 mmol mol-1 (0.81 ºC, 1σ), should be used to interpret Sr/Ca records from O. faveolata specimens of unknown age or origin to reconstruct SST. We also explored how uncertainty is affected by the number of corals used in a reconstruction by iteratively calculating the RMS error for composite coral time-series using two, three, four, and five overlapping coral colonies. Our results indicate that maximum RMS error at the 95% confidence interval on mean annual SST estimates is 1.4 º

  10. Systematic studies on the reconstruction efficiency and accuracy of a track drift chamber

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Appelshaeuser, H.

    1993-02-01

    The author has studied the reconstruction efficiency of the NA35-TPC by means of a simulation of the tracks by means of laser radiation. He has obtained results on the diffusion constant and the track resolution. (HSI) [de

  11. Tissue Engineering for Human Urethral Reconstruction : Systematic Review of Recent Literature

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Kemp, Vincent; de Graaf, Petra; Fledderus, Joost O.; Bosch, JLHR; de Kort, Laetitia

    2015-01-01

    Background Techniques to treat urethral stricture and hypospadias are restricted, as substitution of the unhealthy urethra with tissue from other origins (skin, bladder or buccal mucosa) has some limitations. Therefore, alternative sources of tissue for use in urethral reconstructions are

  12. The use of robotics in plastic and reconstructive surgery: A systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean Nehme

    2017-09-01

    Conclusions: Robot-assisted plastic and reconstructive surgery provides clinical outcomes comparable to conventional techniques. Advantages include reported improved cosmesis, functional outcomes and greater surgeon comfort. Disadvantages included longer operating and set-up times, a learning curve, breaking of microneedles, high monetary costs and authors consistently recommended improved end-effectors. All authors were optimistic about the use of robotics in plastic and reconstructive surgery.

  13. Electric field metrology for SI traceability: Systematic measurement uncertainties in electromagnetically induced transparency in atomic vapor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holloway, Christopher L.; Simons, Matt T.; Gordon, Joshua A.; Dienstfrey, Andrew; Anderson, David A.; Raithel, Georg

    2017-06-01

    We investigate the relationship between the Rabi frequency (ΩRF, related to the applied electric field) and Autler-Townes (AT) splitting, when performing atom-based radio-frequency (RF) electric (E) field strength measurements using Rydberg states and electromagnetically induced transparency (EIT) in an atomic vapor. The AT splitting satisfies, under certain conditions, a well-defined linear relationship with the applied RF field amplitude. The EIT/AT-based E-field measurement approach derived from these principles is currently being investigated by several groups around the world as a means to develop a new SI-traceable RF E-field measurement technique. We establish conditions under which the measured AT-splitting is an approximately linear function of the RF electric field. A quantitative description of systematic deviations from the linear relationship is key to exploiting EIT/AT-based atomic-vapor spectroscopy for SI-traceable field measurement. We show that the linear relationship is valid and can be used to determine the E-field strength, with minimal error, as long as the EIT linewidth is small compared to the AT-splitting. We also discuss interesting aspects of the thermal dependence (i.e., hot- versus cold-atom) of this EIT-AT technique. An analysis of the transition from cold- to hot-atom EIT in a Doppler-mismatched cascade system reveals a significant change of the dependence of the EIT linewidth on the optical Rabi frequencies and of the AT-splitting on ΩRF.

  14. A Systematic Review of Outcomes and Complications of Primary Fingertip Reconstruction Using Reverse-Flow Homodigital Island Flaps.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regmi, Subhash; Gu, Jia-xiang; Zhang, Nai-chen; Liu, Hong-jun

    2016-04-01

    Fingertip reconstruction using reverse-flow homodigital island flaps has been very popular over the years. However, the outcomes of reconstruction have not been clearly understood. In these circumstances, a systematic review of available literature is warranted. To assess the outcomes and complications of fingertip reconstruction using reverse-flow homodigital island flaps. To justify the usage of reverse-flow homodigital island flaps for fingertip reconstruction. A PubMed [MEDLINE] electronic database was searched (1985 to 15 April 2015). Retrospective case series that met the following criteria were included: (1) Study reported primary data; (2) Study included at least five cases of fingertip defects treated using reverse-flow homodigital island flaps; (3) Study reported outcomes and complications of fingertip reconstruction, either primary or delayed, using reverse-flow homodigital island flaps; (4) The study presented at least one of the following functional outcomes: Static two-point discrimination, return-to-work time, range of motion of distal interphalangeal joints; (5) The study presented at least one complication. Two review authors independently assessed search results, and two other review authors analyzed the data and resolved disagreements. The following endpoints were analyzed: survival rate of the flap, sensibility, and functional outcomes and complications. Eight studies were included in this review. The included studies were published between 1995 and 2014, and a total of 207 patients with 230 fingertip defects were reported. The overall survival rate of the flap was 98 % (including partial survival). The mean static two-point discrimination (2PD) was 7.2 mm. The average range of motion of the DIP joint was 63°. The average return-to-work time was 7 weeks after injury. On average, 2 % of the patient had complete flap necrosis, 5 % had partial flap necrosis, 4 % developed venous congestion, 4 % developed flexion contracture, and 12 % experienced

  15. A Convex Reconstruction Model for X-ray Tomographic Imaging with Uncertain Flat-fields

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aggrawal, Hari Om; Andersen, Martin Skovgaard; Rose, Sean

    2018-01-01

    has a negligible effect on the reconstruction quality. However, in time- or dose-limited applications such as dynamic CT, this uncertainty may cause severe and systematic artifacts known as ring artifacts. By carefully modeling the measurement process and by taking uncertainties into account, we...

  16. Effectiveness and safety of cryotherapy after arthroscopic anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction. A systematic review of the literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martimbianco, Ana Luiza Cabrera; Gomes da Silva, Brenda Nazaré; de Carvalho, Alan Pedrosa Viegas; Silva, Valter; Torloni, Maria Regina; Peccin, Maria Stella

    2014-11-01

    Cryotherapy is widely used in rehabilitation; however, its effectiveness after anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction remains uncertain. To investigate the effectiveness and safety of cryotherapy following ACL reconstruction through a systematic review, randomized and quasi-randomized clinical trials were searched in the databases: MEDLINE, EMBASE, CENTRAL, PEDro, SportDiscus, CINAHL, LILACS (June 2013). The primary outcomes measures were pain, edema and adverse events; the secondary outcomes were knee function, analgesic medication use, range of motion, blood loss, hospital stay, quality of life and patient satisfaction. The methodological quality of studies was evaluated using the Cochrane Collaboration risk-of-bias tool. Ten trials (a total of 573 patients) were included. Results of meta-analysis showed that the use of cold compression devices produced a significant reduction in pain scores 48 h after surgery (p cryotherapy. The risk for adverse events did not differ between patients receiving cryotherapy versus no treatment (p = 1.00). The limited evidence currently available is insufficient to draw definitive conclusions on the effectiveness of cryotherapy for other outcomes. There is a need for well designed, good quality randomized trials to answer other questions related to this intervention and increase the precision of future systematic reviews. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Tissue engineering for human urethral reconstruction: systematic review of recent literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Kemp, Vincent; de Graaf, Petra; Fledderus, Joost O; Ruud Bosch, J L H; de Kort, Laetitia M O

    2015-01-01

    Techniques to treat urethral stricture and hypospadias are restricted, as substitution of the unhealthy urethra with tissue from other origins (skin, bladder or buccal mucosa) has some limitations. Therefore, alternative sources of tissue for use in urethral reconstructions are considered, such as ex vivo engineered constructs. To review recent literature on tissue engineering for human urethral reconstruction. A search was made in the PubMed and Embase databases restricted to the last 25 years and the English language. A total of 45 articles were selected describing the use of tissue engineering in urethral reconstruction. The results are discussed in four groups: autologous cell cultures, matrices/scaffolds, cell-seeded scaffolds, and clinical results of urethral reconstructions using these materials. Different progenitor cells were used, isolated from either urine or adipose tissue, but slightly better results were obtained with in vitro expansion of urothelial cells from bladder washings, tissue biopsies from the bladder (urothelium) or the oral cavity (buccal mucosa). Compared with a synthetic scaffold, a biological scaffold has the advantage of bioactive extracellular matrix proteins on its surface. When applied clinically, a non-seeded matrix only seems suited for use as an onlay graft. When a tubularized substitution is the aim, a cell-seeded construct seems more beneficial. Considerable experience is available with tissue engineering of urethral tissue in vitro, produced with cells of different origin. Clinical and in vivo experiments show promising results.

  18. DO WE REALLY KNOW THE DUST? SYSTEMATICS AND UNCERTAINTIES OF THE MID-INFRARED SPECTRAL ANALYSIS METHODS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Juhasz, A.; Henning, Th.; Bouwman, J.; Dullemond, C. P.; Pascucci, I.; Apai, D.

    2009-01-01

    The spectral region around 10 μm, showing prominent emission bands from various dust species is commonly used for the evaluation of the chemical composition of protoplanetary dust. Different methods of analysis have been proposed for this purpose, but so far, no comparative test has been performed to test the validity of their assumptions. In this paper, we evaluate how good the various methods are in deriving the chemical composition of dust grains from infrared spectroscopy. Synthetic spectra of disk models with different geometries and central sources were calculated, using a two-dimensional radiative transfer code. These spectra were then fitted in a blind test by four spectral decomposition methods. We studied the effect of disk structure (flared versus flat), inclination angle, size of an inner disk hole, and stellar luminosity on the fitted chemical composition. Our results show that the dust parameters obtained by all methods deviate systematically from the input data of the synthetic spectra. The dust composition fitted by the new two-layer temperature distribution method, described in this paper, differs the least from the input dust composition and the results show the weakest systematic effects. The reason for the deviations of the results given by the previously used methods lies in their simplifying assumptions. Due to the radial extent of the 10 μm emitting region there is dust at different temperatures contributing to the flux in the silicate feature. Therefore, the assumption of a single averaged grain temperature can be a strong limitation of the previously used methods. The continuum below the feature can consist of multiple components (e.g., star, inner rim, and disk midplane), which cannot simply be described by a Planck function at a single temperature. In addition, the optically thin emission of 'featureless' grains (e.g., carbon in the considered wavelength range) produces a degeneracy in the models with the optically thick emission of the

  19. Direct reconstruction and associated uncertainties of 192Ir source dwell positions in ring applicators using gafchromic film in the treatment planning of HDR brachytherapy cervix patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Awunor, O. A.; Dixon, B.; Walker, C.

    2013-05-01

    This paper details a practical method for the direct reconstruction of high dose rate 192Ir source dwell positions in ring applicators using gafchromic film in the treatment planning of brachytherapy cervix patients. It also details the uncertainties associated with such a process. Eight Nucletron interstitial ring applicators—Ø26 mm (×4), Ø30 mm (×3) and Ø34 mm (×1), and one 60 mm intrauterine tube were used in this study. RTQA2 and XRQA2 gafchromic films were irradiated at pre-programmed dwell positions with three successive 192Ir sources and used to derive the coordinates of the source dwell positions. The source was observed to deviate significantly from its expected position by up to 6.1 mm in all ring sizes. Significant inter applicator differences of up to 2.6 mm were observed between a subset of ring applicators. Also, the measured data were observed to differ significantly from commercially available source path models provided by Nucletron with differences of up to 3.7 mm across all ring applicator sizes. The total expanded uncertainty (k = 2) averaged over all measured dwell positions in the rings was observed to be 1.1 ± 0.1 mm (Ø26 mm and Ø30 mm rings) and 1.0 ± 0.3 mm (Ø34 mm ring) respectively, and when transferred to the treatment planning system, equated to maximum %dose changes of 1.9%, 13.2% and 1.5% at regions representative of the parametrium, lateral fornix and organs at risk respectively.

  20. Procedure and results of a systematic comparative round robin estimation of the uncertainties of emission measurements in Germany and Switzerland during the summer and fall 1998

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morkowski, J.S.

    2000-08-01

    During summer and fall 1998, 75 sample takers and 20 employees of laboratories of 26 institutes measuring emissions in Germany and Switzerland estimated the uncertainty of measuring results of 5 selected DVI-standard emission measuring methods. The applied method of systematic comparative estimation showed that the estimated total uncertainties U{sub T} of the investigated measuring methods range between 12% and 21%. The results of the round robin estimation for one of the methods (dust measuring 2066 Part 7) with U{sub T}=15.4% are equal to those of the system for simulation of emissions (HLfU Kassel) with 15.5%. This confirms the expectation of the initiators of the project that the systematic comparative estimation is useful for the characterization of test methods and hence for the validation of methods. (orig.)

  1. Do psychosocial interventions improve rehabilitation outcomes after anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction? A systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coronado, Rogelio A; Bird, Mackenzie L; Van Hoy, Erin E; Huston, Laura J; Spindler, Kurt P; Archer, Kristin R

    2018-03-01

    To examine the role of psychosocial interventions in improving patient-reported clinical outcomes, including return to sport/activity, and intermediary psychosocial factors after anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction. MEDLINE/PubMed, CINAHL, PsycINFO, and Web of Science were searched from each database's inception to March 2017 for published studies in patients after anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction. Studies were included if they reported on the effects of a postoperative psychosocial intervention on a patient-reported clinical measure of disability, function, pain, quality of life, return to sport/activity, or intermediary psychosocial factor. Data were extracted using a standardized form and summary effects from each article were compiled. The methodological quality of randomized trials was assessed using the Physiotherapy Evidence Database Scale and scores greater than 5/10 were considered high quality. A total of 893 articles were identified from the literature search. Of these, four randomized trials ( N = 210) met inclusion criteria. The four articles examined guided imagery and relaxation, coping modeling, and visual imagery as postoperative psychosocial interventions. Methodological quality scores of the studies ranged from 5 to 9. There were inconsistent findings for the additive benefit of psychosocial interventions for improving postoperative function, pain, or self-efficacy and limited evidence for improving postoperative quality of life, anxiety, or fear of reinjury. No study examined the effects of psychosocial interventions on return to sport/activity. Overall, there is limited evidence on the efficacy of postoperative psychosocial interventions for improving functional recovery after anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction.

  2. Radiation dose and diagnostic image quality associated with iterative reconstruction in coronary CT angiography: A systematic review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdullah, Kamarul Amin; McEntee, Mark F.; Reed, Warren; Kench, Peter L.

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this systematic review is to evaluate the radiation dose reduction achieved using iterative reconstruction (IR) compared to filtered back projection (FBP) in coronary CT angiography (CCTA) and assess the impact on diagnostic image quality. A systematic search of seven electronic databases was performed to identify all studies using a developed keywords strategy. A total of 14 studies met the criteria and were included in a review analysis. The results showed that there was a significant reduction in radiation dose when using IR compared to FBP (P 0.05). The mean ± SD difference of image noise, signal-noise ratio (SNR) and contrast-noise ratio (CNR) were 1.05 ± 1.29 HU, 0.88 ± 0.56 and 0.63 ± 1.83 respectively. The mean ± SD percentages of overall image quality scores were 71.79 ± 12.29% (FBP) and 67.31 ± 22.96% (IR). The mean ± SD percentages of coronary segment analysis were 95.43 ± 2.57% (FBP) and 97.19 ± 2.62% (IR). In conclusion, this review analysis shows that CCTA with the use of IR leads to a significant reduction in radiation dose as compared to the use of FBP. Diagnostic image quality of IR at reduced dose (30–41%) is comparable to FBP at standard dose in the diagnosis of CAD.

  3. SEMI-EMPIRICAL WHITE DWARF INITIAL-FINAL MASS RELATIONSHIPS: A THOROUGH ANALYSIS OF SYSTEMATIC UNCERTAINTIES DUE TO STELLAR EVOLUTION MODELS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salaris, Maurizio; Serenelli, Aldo; Weiss, Achim; Miller Bertolami, Marcelo

    2009-01-01

    Using the most recent results about white dwarfs (WDs) in ten open clusters, we revisit semiempirical estimates of the initial-final mass relation (IFMR) in star clusters, with emphasis on the use of stellar evolution models. We discuss the influence of these models on each step of the derivation. One intention of our work is to use consistent sets of calculations both for the isochrones and the WD cooling tracks. The second one is to derive the range of systematic errors arising from stellar evolution theory. This is achieved by using different sources for the stellar models and by varying physical assumptions and input data. We find that systematic errors, including the determination of the cluster age, are dominating the initial mass values, while observational uncertainties influence the final mass primarily. After having determined the systematic errors, the initial-final mass relation allows us finally to draw conclusions about the physics of the stellar models, in particular about convective overshooting.

  4. Surgical reconstruction of aortic root in Marfan syndrome patients: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Rui; Wang, Zhiwei; Hu, Xiaoping; Wu, Hongbing; Wu, Zhiyong; Zhou, Zhen

    2014-07-01

    Several recent studies have compared the clinical results of valve-sparing (VS) surgery and composite valve graft (CVG) surgery in the aortic root reconstruction of Marfan syndrome (MS) patients. The study aim was to investigate whether it is appropriate to preserve the native aortic valve in root surgery of MFS patients when taking the short-term and long-term prognoses into consideration. A thorough literature search of PubMed, Embase and Cochrane library was conducted to identify studies comparing the outcomes of VS and CVG surgery in MFS patients. The Newcastle-Ottawa Scale evaluation scheme was used to assess the methodological quality of the included articles. Data were extracted from reports and analyzed using Revman 5.0, supplied by Cochrane collaboration. Six clinical trials incorporating 539 patients were included. Compared to CVG, VS surgery was associated with a lower risk for re-exploration (RR 0.48, 95% CI 0.24-0.97; p = 0.04), thromboembolic events (RR 0.17, 95% CI 0.05-0.57; p = 0.004) and endocarditis (RR 0.31, 95% CI 0.11-0.94; p = 0.04). Despite an inherent incidence of aortic regurgitation, VS surgery resulted in an elevation of long-term survival rate; however, no statistical differences were found between groups with regards to reoperation (RR 1.07, 95% CI 0.35-3.27; p = 0.91). Root reconstruction with VS surgery can effectively improve the prognosis of MFS patients and provide a promising alternative for surgical treatment. However, the results must be interpreted with caution due to the retrospective nature of the included studies; large-scale prospective control trials are needed to confirm these findings.

  5. SYSTEMATIC UNCERTAINTIES IN THE SPECTROSCOPIC MEASUREMENTS OF NEUTRON STAR MASSES AND RADII FROM THERMONUCLEAR X-RAY BURSTS. III. ABSOLUTE FLUX CALIBRATION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Güver, Tolga [Istanbul University, Science Faculty, Department of Astronomy and Space Sciences, Beyazıt, 34119, Istanbul (Turkey); Özel, Feryal; Psaltis, Dimitrios [Department of Astronomy, University of Arizona, 933 N. Cherry Avenue, Tucson, AZ 85721 (United States); Marshall, Herman [Center for Space Research, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States); Guainazzi, Matteo [European Space Astronomy Centre of ESA, P.O. Box 78, Villanueva de la Cañada, E-28691 Madrid (Spain); Díaz-Trigo, Maria [ESO, Karl-Schwarzschild-Strasse 2, D-85748 Garching bei München (Germany)

    2016-09-20

    Many techniques for measuring neutron star radii rely on absolute flux measurements in the X-rays. As a result, one of the fundamental uncertainties in these spectroscopic measurements arises from the absolute flux calibrations of the detectors being used. Using the stable X-ray burster, GS 1826–238, and its simultaneous observations by Chandra HETG/ACIS-S and RXTE /PCA as well as by XMM-Newton EPIC-pn and RXTE /PCA, we quantify the degree of uncertainty in the flux calibration by assessing the differences between the measured fluxes during bursts. We find that the RXTE /PCA and the Chandra gratings measurements agree with each other within their formal uncertainties, increasing our confidence in these flux measurements. In contrast, XMM-Newton EPIC-pn measures 14.0 ± 0.3% less flux than the RXTE /PCA. This is consistent with the previously reported discrepancy with the flux measurements of EPIC-pn, compared with EPIC MOS1, MOS2, and ACIS-S detectors. We also show that any intrinsic time-dependent systematic uncertainty that may exist in the calibration of the satellites has already been implicity taken into account in the neutron star radius measurements.

  6. Protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis on the clinical outcomes and cost of deep inferior epigastric perforator (DIEP flap versus implants for breast reconstruction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ankur Khajuria

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Mastectomy in the context of breast malignancy can have a profoundly negative impact on a woman’s self-image, impairing personal, sexual and social relationships. The deep inferior epigastric perforator (DIEP flap and implants are the two commonest reconstructive modalities that can potentially overcome this psychological trauma. The comparative data on clinical outcomes and costs of the two modalities is limited. We aim to synthesise the current evidence on DIEP versus implants to establish which is the superior technique for breast reconstruction, in terms of clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness. Methods A comprehensive search will be undertaken of EMBASE, MEDLINE, Google Scholar, CENTRAL and Science citation index databases (1994 up to August 2017 to identify studies relevant for the review. Primary human studies evaluating clinical outcomes and cost of DIEP and implant-based reconstruction in context of breast malignancy will be included. Primary outcomes will be patient satisfaction and cosmetic outcome from patient-reported outcome measures (scores from validated tools, e.g. BREAST-Q tool, complications and cost-analysis. The secondary outcomes will be duration of surgery, number of surgical revisions, length of stay, availability of procedures and total number of clinic visits. Discussion This will be the first systematic review and meta-analysis in available literature comparing the clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness of DIEP and implants for breast reconstruction. This review is expected to guide worldwide clinical practice for breast reconstruction. Systematic review registration PROSPERO CRD42017072557 .

  7. Functional Outcome and Graft Retention in Patients With Septic Arthritis After Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction: A Systematic Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makhni, Eric C; Steinhaus, Michael E; Mehran, Nima; Schulz, Brian S; Ahmad, Christopher S

    2015-07-01

    To provide a comprehensive review of clinical and functional outcomes after treatment for septic arthritis after anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction. A systematic review of the literature was performed. Two reviewers assessed and confirmed the methodologic quality of each study. Studies that met the inclusion criteria were assessed for pertinent data, and when available, similar outcomes were combined to generate frequency-weighted means. Nineteen studies met the inclusion and exclusion criteria for this review, reporting on a total of 203 infected knees. The mean age was 27.5 years and the mean length of follow-up was 44.2 months, with male patients comprising 88% of the population. Hamstring and bone-patellar tendon-bone autografts were used in 63% and 33% of patients, respectively, with 78% of patients retaining their grafts. The studies reported mean flexion and extension deficits of 5.8° and 1.0°, respectively, and laxity testing showed a mean difference of 1.9 mm. The studies reported mean Lysholm, International Knee Documentation Committee, and Tegner scores of 82.1, 68.2, and 5.6, respectively. Of the patients, 83% reported an ability to return to activities of daily living whereas 67% reported a return to their preinjury level of athletics. Evidence of new degenerative changes was seen in 22% of patients. Septic arthritis after anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction remains a very infrequent event, affecting 0.5% of patients. On average, outcomes in these patients are comparable with those in patients in whom infection does not develop, including postoperative range of motion, residual instability, Lysholm scores, and return to preinjury level of activity. These patients do exhibit decreased International Knee Documentation Committee scores compared with patients without septic arthritis, however. The impact of this differential is not clear, but this scoring difference suggests that septic arthritis may be associated with more severe symptoms

  8. Allograft tissue irradiation and failure rate after anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction: A systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dashe, Jesse; Parisien, Robert L; Cusano, Antonio; Curry, Emily J; Bedi, Asheesh; Li, Xinning

    2016-06-18

    To evaluate whether anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) allograft irradiation is effective for sterility without compromising graft integrity and increasing failure rate. A literature search was conducted using PubMed, Cochrane, and Google. The following search terms were used: "Gamma irradiation AND anterior cruciate ligament AND allograft" with a return of 30 items. Filters used included: English language, years 1990-2015. There were 6 hits that were not reviewed, as there were only abstracts available. Another 5 hits were discarded, as they did not pertain to the topic of interest. There were 9 more articles that were excluded: Three studies were performed on animals and 6 studies were meta-analyses. Therefore, a total of 10 articles were applicable to review. There is a delicate dosing crossover where gamma irradiation is both effective for sterility without catastrophically compromising the structural integrity of the graft. Of note, low dose irradiation is considered less than 2.0 Mrad, moderate dose is between 2.1-2.4 Mrad, and high dose is greater than or equal to 2.5 Mrad. Based upon the results of the literature search, the optimal threshold for sterilization was found to be sterilization at less than 2.2 Mrad of gamma irradiation with the important caveat of being performed at low temperatures. The graft selection process also must include thorough donor screening and testing as well as harvesting the tissue in a sterile fashion. Utilization of higher dose (≥ 2.5 Mrad) of irradiation causes greater allograft tissue laxity that results in greater graft failure rate clinically in patients after ACL reconstruction. Allograft ACL graft gamma irradiated with less than 2.2 Mrad appears to be a reasonable alternative to autograft for patients above 25 years of age.

  9. The Significance of an Excess in a Counting Experiment: Assessing the Impact of Systematic Uncertainties and the Case with a Gaussian Background

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vianello, Giacomo

    2018-05-01

    Several experiments in high-energy physics and astrophysics can be treated as on/off measurements, where an observation potentially containing a new source or effect (“on” measurement) is contrasted with a background-only observation free of the effect (“off” measurement). In counting experiments, the significance of the new source or effect can be estimated with a widely used formula from Li & Ma, which assumes that both measurements are Poisson random variables. In this paper we study three other cases: (i) the ideal case where the background measurement has no uncertainty, which can be used to study the maximum sensitivity that an instrument can achieve, (ii) the case where the background estimate b in the off measurement has an additional systematic uncertainty, and (iii) the case where b is a Gaussian random variable instead of a Poisson random variable. The latter case applies when b comes from a model fitted on archival or ancillary data, or from the interpolation of a function fitted on data surrounding the candidate new source/effect. Practitioners typically use a formula that is only valid when b is large and when its uncertainty is very small, while we derive a general formula that can be applied in all regimes. We also develop simple methods that can be used to assess how much an estimate of significance is sensitive to systematic uncertainties on the efficiency or on the background. Examples of applications include the detection of short gamma-ray bursts and of new X-ray or γ-ray sources. All the techniques presented in this paper are made available in a Python code that is ready to use.

  10. A Systematic Review of the Use of Telemedicine in Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery and Dermatology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vyas, Krishna S; Hambrick, H Rhodes; Shakir, Afaaf; Morrison, Shane D; Tran, Duy C; Pearson, Keon; Vasconez, Henry C; Mardini, Samir; Gosman, Amanda A; Dobke, Marek; Granick, Mark S

    2017-06-01

    Telemedicine, the use of information technology and telecommunication to provide healthcare at a distance, is a burgeoning field with applications throughout medicine. Given the visual nature of plastic surgery and dermatology, telemedicine has a myriad of potential applications within the field. A comprehensive literature review of articles published on telemedicine since January 2010 was performed. Articles were selected for their relevance to plastic and reconstructive surgery and dermatology, and then reviewed for their discussion of the applications, benefits, and limitations of telemedicine in practice. A total of 3119 articles were identified in the initial query. Twenty-three articles met the inclusion criteria in plastic surgery (7 wound management, 5 burn management, 5 trauma, 4 free flap care, 2 in cleft lip/palate repair). Twenty-three (100%) reported a benefit of telemedicine often related to improved postoperative monitoring, increased access to expertise in rural settings, and cost savings, either predicted or actualized. Eight (35%) reported limitations and barriers to the application of telemedicine, including overdiagnosis and dependence on functional telecommunication systems. Sixty-six articles focused on telemedicine in dermatology and also demonstrated significant promise. Telemedicine holds special promise in increasing the efficiency of postoperative care for microsurgical procedures, improving care coordination and management of burn wounds, facilitating interprofessional collaboration across time and space, eliminating a significant number of unnecessary referrals, and connecting patients located far from major medical centers with professional expertise without impinging on-and in some cases improving-the quality or accuracy of care provided. Teledermatology consultation was found to be safe and has a comparable or superior efficacy to the traditional in-patient consultation. The system was consistently rated as convenient and easy to use

  11. Systematic comparison and reconstruction of sea urchin (Echinoidea internal anatomy: a novel approach using magnetic resonance imaging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mueller Susanne

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Traditional comparative morphological analyses and subsequent three-dimensional reconstructions suffer from a number of drawbacks. This is particularly evident in the case of soft tissue studies that are technically demanding, time-consuming, and often prone to produce artefacts. These problems can partly be overcome by employing non-invasive, destruction-free imaging techniques, in particular micro-computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging. Results Here, we employed high-field magnetic resonance imaging techniques to gather numerous data from members of a major marine invertebrate taxon, the sea urchins (Echinoidea. For this model study, 13 of the 14 currently recognized high-ranking subtaxa (orders of this group of animals were analyzed. Based on the acquired datasets, interactive three-dimensional models were assembled. Our analyses reveal that selected soft tissue characters can even be used for phylogenetic inferences in sea urchins, as exemplified by differences in the size and shape of the gastric caecum found in the Irregularia. Conclusion The main focus of our investigation was to explore the possibility to systematically visualize the internal anatomy of echinoids obtained from various museum collections. We show that, in contrast to classical preparative procedures, magnetic resonance imaging can give rapid, destruction-free access to morphological data from numerous specimens, thus extending the range of techniques available for comparative studies of invertebrate morphology.

  12. Uncertainty analysis guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andres, T.H.

    2002-05-01

    This guide applies to the estimation of uncertainty in quantities calculated by scientific, analysis and design computer programs that fall within the scope of AECL's software quality assurance (SQA) manual. The guide weaves together rational approaches from the SQA manual and three other diverse sources: (a) the CSAU (Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty) evaluation methodology; (b) the ISO Guide,for the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement; and (c) the SVA (Systems Variability Analysis) method of risk analysis. This report describes the manner by which random and systematic uncertainties in calculated quantities can be estimated and expressed. Random uncertainty in model output can be attributed to uncertainties of inputs. The propagation of these uncertainties through a computer model can be represented in a variety of ways, including exact calculations, series approximations and Monte Carlo methods. Systematic uncertainties emerge from the development of the computer model itself, through simplifications and conservatisms, for example. These must be estimated and combined with random uncertainties to determine the combined uncertainty in a model output. This report also addresses the method by which uncertainties should be employed in code validation, in order to determine whether experiments and simulations agree, and whether or not a code satisfies the required tolerance for its application. (author)

  13. Uncertainty analysis guide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andres, T.H

    2002-05-01

    This guide applies to the estimation of uncertainty in quantities calculated by scientific, analysis and design computer programs that fall within the scope of AECL's software quality assurance (SQA) manual. The guide weaves together rational approaches from the SQA manual and three other diverse sources: (a) the CSAU (Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty) evaluation methodology; (b) the ISO Guide,for the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement; and (c) the SVA (Systems Variability Analysis) method of risk analysis. This report describes the manner by which random and systematic uncertainties in calculated quantities can be estimated and expressed. Random uncertainty in model output can be attributed to uncertainties of inputs. The propagation of these uncertainties through a computer model can be represented in a variety of ways, including exact calculations, series approximations and Monte Carlo methods. Systematic uncertainties emerge from the development of the computer model itself, through simplifications and conservatisms, for example. These must be estimated and combined with random uncertainties to determine the combined uncertainty in a model output. This report also addresses the method by which uncertainties should be employed in code validation, in order to determine whether experiments and simulations agree, and whether or not a code satisfies the required tolerance for its application. (author)

  14. A Software Toolkit to Study Systematic Uncertainties of the Physics Models of the Geant4 Simulation Package

    Science.gov (United States)

    Genser, Krzysztof; Hatcher, Robert; Kelsey, Michael; Perdue, Gabriel; Wenzel, Hans; Wright, Dennis H.; Yarba, Julia

    2017-10-01

    The Geant4 simulation toolkit is used to model interactions between particles and matter. Geant4 employs a set of validated physics models that span a wide range of interaction energies. These models rely on measured cross-sections and phenomenological models with the physically motivated parameters that are tuned to cover many application domains. To study what uncertainties are associated with the Geant4 physics models we have designed and implemented a comprehensive, modular, user-friendly software toolkit that allows the variation of one or more parameters of one or more Geant4 physics models involved in simulation studies. It also enables analysis of multiple variants of the resulting physics observables of interest in order to estimate the uncertainties associated with the simulation model choices. Based on modern event-processing infrastructure software, the toolkit offers a variety of attractive features, e.g. flexible run-time configurable workflow, comprehensive bookkeeping, easy to expand collection of analytical components. Design, implementation technology, and key functionalities of the toolkit are presented in this paper and illustrated with selected results.

  15. Characterization factors for terrestrial acidification at the global scale: a systematic analysis of spatial variability and uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Pierre-Olivier; Azevedo, Ligia B; Margni, Manuele; van Zelm, Rosalie; Deschênes, Louise; Huijbregts, Mark A J

    2014-12-01

    Characterization factors (CFs) are used in life cycle assessment (LCA) to quantify the potential impact per unit of emission. CFs are obtained from a characterization model which assess the environmental mechanisms along the cause-effect chain linking an emission to its potential damage on a given area of protection, such as loss in ecosystem quality. Up to now, CFs for acidifying emissions did not cover the global scale and were only representative of their characterization model geographical scope. Consequently, current LCA practices implicitly assume that all emissions from a global supply chain occur within the continent referring to the characterization method geographical scope. This paper provides worldwide 2°×2.5° spatially-explicit CFs, representing the change in relative loss of terrestrial vascular plant species due to an emission change of nitrogen oxides (NOx), ammonia (NH3) and sulfur dioxide (SO2). We found that spatial variability in the CFs is much larger compared to statistical uncertainty (six orders of magnitude vs. two orders of magnitude). Spatial variability is mainly caused by the atmospheric fate factor and soil sensitivity factor, while the ecological effect factor is the dominant contributor to the statistical uncertainty. The CFs provided in our study allow the worldwide spatially explicit evaluation of life cycle impacts related to acidifying emissions. This opens the door to evaluate regional life cycle emissions of different products in a global economy. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. A Software Toolkit to Study Systematic Uncertainties of the Physics Models of the Geant4 Simulation Package

    CERN Document Server

    Genser, Krzysztof; Perdue, Gabriel; Wenzel, Hans; Yarba, Julia; Kelsey, Michael; Wright, Dennis H

    2016-01-01

    The Geant4 toolkit is used to model interactions between particles and matter. Geant4 employs a set of validated physics models that span a wide range of interaction energies. These models are tuned to cover a large variety of possible applications. This raises the critical question of what uncertainties are associated with the Geant4 physics model, or group of models, involved in a simulation project. To address the challenge, we have designed and implemented a comprehen- sive, modular, user-friendly software toolkit that allows the variation of one or more parameters of one or more Geant4 physics models involved in simulation studies. It also enables analysis of multiple variants of the resulting physics observables of interest in order to estimate the uncertain- ties associated with the simulation model choices. Key functionalities of the toolkit are presented in this paper and are illustrated with selected results.

  17. Climate reconstruction by regression - 32 variations on a theme

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buerger, Gerd; Fast, Irina; Cubasch, Ulrich [FU Berlin (Germany). Inst. fuer Meteorologie

    2006-02-15

    Regression-based methods fail to provide a sufficiently unique reconstruction of a given millennial history of Northern Hemisphere mean temperature. They instead offer a multitude of variants, depending on the specific data processing scheme. Using a simulated climate history with noise-disturbed pseudo-proxies, we systematically test a set of such configurations, each of which appears to be a priori reasonable, with existing applications elsewhere. This results in an entire spectrum between practically useless and almost perfect reconstructions. The reason lies in the fact that the training variations are not representative of the full millennium, and the regression equations have to be extrapolated. This creates an error that is proportional to both the model uncertainty and the proxy amplitudes. Estimation of that uncertainty is paramount for a useful millennial reconstruction, especially if it is of the parameter-loaded multiproxy type.

  18. DS02 uncertainty analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaul, Dean C.; Egbert, Stephen D.; Woolson, William A.

    2005-01-01

    In order to avoid the pitfalls that so discredited DS86 and its uncertainty estimates, and to provide DS02 uncertainties that are both defensible and credible, this report not only presents the ensemble uncertainties assembled from uncertainties in individual computational elements and radiation dose components but also describes how these relate to comparisons between observed and computed quantities at critical intervals in the computational process. These comparisons include those between observed and calculated radiation free-field components, where observations include thermal- and fast-neutron activation and gamma-ray thermoluminescence, which are relevant to the estimated systematic uncertainty for DS02. The comparisons also include those between calculated and observed survivor shielding, where the observations consist of biodosimetric measurements for individual survivors, which are relevant to the estimated random uncertainty for DS02. (J.P.N.)

  19. Muon reconstruction efficiency, momentum scale and resolution in pp collisions at 8TeV with ATLAS

    CERN Document Server

    Dimitrievska, A; The ATLAS collaboration

    2014-01-01

    The ATLAS experiment identifies and reconstructs muons with two high precision tracking systems, the Inner Detector and the Muon Spectrometer, which provide independent measurements of the muon momentum. This poster summarizes the performance of the combined muon reconstruction in terms of reconstruction efficiency, momentum scale and resolution. Data-driven techniques are used to derive corrections to be applied to simulation in order to reproduce the reconstruction efficiency, momentum scale and resolution as observed in experimental data, and to asses systematic uncertainties on these quantities. The analysed dataset corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 20.4 fb−1 from 8 TeV pp collisions recorded in 2012.

  20. Using Principal Component and Tidal Analysis as a Quality Metric for Detecting Systematic Heading Uncertainty in Long-Term Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morley, M. G.; Mihaly, S. F.; Dewey, R. K.; Jeffries, M. A.

    2015-12-01

    Ocean Networks Canada (ONC) operates the NEPTUNE and VENUS cabled ocean observatories to collect data on physical, chemical, biological, and geological ocean conditions over multi-year time periods. Researchers can download real-time and historical data from a large variety of instruments to study complex earth and ocean processes from their home laboratories. Ensuring that the users are receiving the most accurate data is a high priority at ONC, requiring quality assurance and quality control (QAQC) procedures to be developed for all data types. While some data types have relatively straightforward QAQC tests, such as scalar data range limits that are based on expected observed values or measurement limits of the instrument, for other data types the QAQC tests are more comprehensive. Long time series of ocean currents from Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCP), stitched together from multiple deployments over many years is one such data type where systematic data biases are more difficult to identify and correct. Data specialists at ONC are working to quantify systematic compass heading uncertainty in long-term ADCP records at each of the major study sites using the internal compass, remotely operated vehicle bearings, and more analytical tools such as principal component analysis (PCA) to estimate the optimal instrument alignments. In addition to using PCA, some work has been done to estimate the main components of the current at each site using tidal harmonic analysis. This paper describes the key challenges and presents preliminary PCA and tidal analysis approaches used by ONC to improve long-term observatory current measurements.

  1. Systematic Error in Lung Nodule Volumetry : Effect of Iterative Reconstruction Versus Filtered Back Projection at Different CT Parameters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Willemink, Martin J.; Leiner, Tim; Budde, Ricardo P. J.; de Kort, Freek P. L.; Vliegenthart, Rozemarijn; van Ooijen, Peter M. A.; Oudkerk, Matthijs; de Jong, Pim A.

    2012-01-01

    OBJECTIVE. Iterative reconstruction potentially can reduce radiation dose compared with filtered back projection (FBP) for chest CT. This is especially important for repeated CT scanning, as is the case in patients with indeterminate lung nodules. It is currently unknown whether absolute nodule

  2. Chimney Technique in Supra-Aortic Branch Reconstruction in China: A Systematic and Critical Review of Chinese Published Experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yang; Shi, Yawei; Wang, Mian; Cui, Jin; Chen, Yitian; Zheng, Liang; Yin, Henghui; Chang, Guangqi

    2017-08-01

    The chimney graft (CG) technique has been proposed as a complete endovascular supra-aortic branch reconstruction for aortic pathologies. Due to the rapid growth of thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR) in China, we aimed to investigate the current data of the CG technique in this most populous country. Studies of supra-aortic branch reconstruction using the CG technique from Chinese centers were collected and analyzed. A total of 294 patients from Chinese centers who underwent TEVAR with CGs were included. There were 301 CGs performed, with a technical successful rate of 97.7%. The rate of early type I endoleaks was 7.1%, and the patency rate of the CGs was desirable. Balloon-expandable bare CGs were significantly associated with good early outcomes and a low rate of endoleaks. Current data from China revealed positive outcomes using CGs for supra-aortic branch reconstruction. Balloon-expandable bare CGs may be the first choice according to the data available but should be considered with caution.

  3. Analysis of pixel systematics and space point reconstruction with DEPFET PXD5 matrices using high energy beam test data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reuen, Lars

    2011-02-15

    To answer the current questions in particle physics vertex-detectors, the innermost sub-detector system of a multipurpose particle detector, with brilliant spatial resolution and at the same time with as little sensor material as possible are mandatory. These requirements are the driving force behind the newest generation of silicon pixel sensors like the DEPFET pixel, which incorporates the first amplification stage in form of a transistor in the fully depleted sensor bulk, allowing for a high spatial resolution even with thinned down sensors. A DEPFET pixel prototype system, build for the future TeV-scale liner collider ILC, was characterized in a high energy beam test at CERN with a spatial resolution and statistics that allowed for the first time in-pixel homogeneity measurements of DEPFET pixels. Yet, in the quest for higher precision the sensor development must be accompanied by progress in position reconstruction algorithms. A study with three novel approaches in position reconstruction was undertaken. The results of the in-pixel beam test and the performance of the new methods with an emphasis on {delta}-electrons will be presented here. (orig.)

  4. Analysis of pixel systematics and space point reconstruction with DEPFET PXD5 matrices using high energy beam test data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reuen, Lars

    2011-02-01

    To answer the current questions in particle physics vertex-detectors, the innermost sub-detector system of a multipurpose particle detector, with brilliant spatial resolution and at the same time with as little sensor material as possible are mandatory. These requirements are the driving force behind the newest generation of silicon pixel sensors like the DEPFET pixel, which incorporates the first amplification stage in form of a transistor in the fully depleted sensor bulk, allowing for a high spatial resolution even with thinned down sensors. A DEPFET pixel prototype system, build for the future TeV-scale liner collider ILC, was characterized in a high energy beam test at CERN with a spatial resolution and statistics that allowed for the first time in-pixel homogeneity measurements of DEPFET pixels. Yet, in the quest for higher precision the sensor development must be accompanied by progress in position reconstruction algorithms. A study with three novel approaches in position reconstruction was undertaken. The results of the in-pixel beam test and the performance of the new methods with an emphasis on δ-electrons will be presented here. (orig.)

  5. Methodologies of Uncertainty Propagation Calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chojnacki, Eric

    2002-01-01

    After recalling the theoretical principle and the practical difficulties of the methodologies of uncertainty propagation calculation, the author discussed how to propagate input uncertainties. He said there were two kinds of input uncertainty: - variability: uncertainty due to heterogeneity, - lack of knowledge: uncertainty due to ignorance. It was therefore necessary to use two different propagation methods. He demonstrated this in a simple example which he generalised, treating the variability uncertainty by the probability theory and the lack of knowledge uncertainty by the fuzzy theory. He cautioned, however, against the systematic use of probability theory which may lead to unjustifiable and illegitimate precise answers. Mr Chojnacki's conclusions were that the importance of distinguishing variability and lack of knowledge increased as the problem was getting more and more complex in terms of number of parameters or time steps, and that it was necessary to develop uncertainty propagation methodologies combining probability theory and fuzzy theory

  6. Understanding uncertainty

    CERN Document Server

    Lindley, Dennis V

    2013-01-01

    Praise for the First Edition ""...a reference for everyone who is interested in knowing and handling uncertainty.""-Journal of Applied Statistics The critically acclaimed First Edition of Understanding Uncertainty provided a study of uncertainty addressed to scholars in all fields, showing that uncertainty could be measured by probability, and that probability obeyed three basic rules that enabled uncertainty to be handled sensibly in everyday life. These ideas were extended to embrace the scientific method and to show how decisions, containing an uncertain element, could be rationally made.

  7. Systematic homogenization and self-consistent flux and pin power reconstruction for nodal diffusion methods. 1: Diffusion equation-based theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, H.; Rizwan-uddin; Dorning, J.J.

    1995-01-01

    A diffusion equation-based systematic homogenization theory and a self-consistent dehomogenization theory for fuel assemblies have been developed for use with coarse-mesh nodal diffusion calculations of light water reactors. The theoretical development is based on a multiple-scales asymptotic expansion carried out through second order in a small parameter, the ratio of the average diffusion length to the reactor characteristic dimension. By starting from the neutron diffusion equation for a three-dimensional heterogeneous medium and introducing two spatial scales, the development systematically yields an assembly-homogenized global diffusion equation with self-consistent expressions for the assembly-homogenized diffusion tensor elements and cross sections and assembly-surface-flux discontinuity factors. The rector eigenvalue 1/k eff is shown to be obtained to the second order in the small parameter, and the heterogeneous diffusion theory flux is shown to be obtained to leading order in that parameter. The latter of these two results provides a natural procedure for the reconstruction of the local fluxes and the determination of pin powers, even though homogenized assemblies are used in the global nodal diffusion calculation

  8. Uncertainty Propagation in OMFIT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Sterling; Meneghini, Orso; Sung, Choongki

    2017-10-01

    A rigorous comparison of power balance fluxes and turbulent model fluxes requires the propagation of uncertainties in the kinetic profiles and their derivatives. Making extensive use of the python uncertainties package, the OMFIT framework has been used to propagate covariant uncertainties to provide an uncertainty in the power balance calculation from the ONETWO code, as well as through the turbulent fluxes calculated by the TGLF code. The covariant uncertainties arise from fitting 1D (constant on flux surface) density and temperature profiles and associated random errors with parameterized functions such as a modified tanh. The power balance and model fluxes can then be compared with quantification of the uncertainties. No effort is made at propagating systematic errors. A case study will be shown for the effects of resonant magnetic perturbations on the kinetic profiles and fluxes at the top of the pedestal. A separate attempt at modeling the random errors with Monte Carlo sampling will be compared to the method of propagating the fitting function parameter covariant uncertainties. Work supported by US DOE under DE-FC02-04ER54698, DE-FG2-95ER-54309, DE-SC 0012656.

  9. Reconstruction, Energy Calibration, and Identification of Hadronically Decaying Tau Leptons in the ATLAS Experiment for Run-2 of the LHC

    CERN Document Server

    The ATLAS collaboration

    2015-01-01

    The reconstruction algorithm, energy calibration, and identification methods for hadronically decaying tau leptons in ATLAS used at the start of Run-2 of the Large Hadron Collider are described in this note. All algorithms have been optimised for Run-2 conditions. The energy calibration relies on Monte Carlo samples with hadronic tau lepton decays, and applies multiplicative factors based on the pT of the reconstructed tau lepton to the energy measurements in the calorimeters. The identification employs boosted decision trees. Systematic uncertainties on the energy scale, reconstruction efficiency and identification efficiency of hadronically decaying tau leptons are determined using Monte Carlo samples that simulate varying conditions.

  10. Estimation of the systematic uncertainties of the measurement of the neutrino mixing angle θ{sub 13} related to the trigger system of the Double Chooz experiment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stueken, David Anselm

    2013-10-14

    The Double Chooz experiment, located in the Ardennes region next to the CHOOZ-B nuclear power plant, is a reactor antineutrino experiment to measure neutrino oscillations. It has been designed as precision experiment to measure the neutrino mixing angel θ{sub 13} with highest possible accuracy due to its small value close to zero. The electron antineutrino flux emitted by the reactor cores is measured by two identical neutrino detectors located at different distances from the reactor cores. Each detector consist of a 10.3 m{sup 3} target volume filled with liquid scintillator and surrounded by 390 photomultiplier tubes. The far detector is located 1.05 km away from the reactor cores to be most sensitive to oscillation effects. The unoscillated neutrino flux is measured by the near detector located 400 m away from the reactor cores. In order to reduce background events and other sources resulting in systematic uncertainties, special requirements have been demanded for all detector components and electronic systems. In this context, a most efficiently operating data acquisition system is essential. The subsystem responsible to start data storage for events of interest is the so called ''trigger system''. The design concept of the Double Chooz trigger system introduces two redundancy concepts in order to trigger the data acquisition in the most robust and efficient way: The trigger decision is based on a combination of an energy threshold and the number of active photomultiplier tubes (multiplicity condition). Secondly, the system is divided into two identical but independently operating subsystems for most robust operations of the full system. Additionally, the two subsystem provide the possibility to measure the efficiency of the system. Apart from generating the trigger signal for the data acquisition, the system provides an online event classification in order to adjust the amount of stored data for each event type. After one and a half year

  11. Measurement Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koch, Michael

    Measurement uncertainty is one of the key issues in quality assurance. It became increasingly important for analytical chemistry laboratories with the accreditation to ISO/IEC 17025. The uncertainty of a measurement is the most important criterion for the decision whether a measurement result is fit for purpose. It also delivers help for the decision whether a specification limit is exceeded or not. Estimation of measurement uncertainty often is not trivial. Several strategies have been developed for this purpose that will shortly be described in this chapter. In addition the different possibilities to take into account the uncertainty in compliance assessment are explained.

  12. Fast emulation of track reconstruction in the CMS simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Komm, Matthias

    2017-01-01

    Simulated samples of various physics processes are a key ingredient within analyses to unlock the physics behind LHC collision data. Samples with more and more statistics are required to keep up with the increasing amounts of recorded data. During sample generation, significant computing time is spent on the reconstruction of charged particle tracks from energy deposits which additionally scales with the pileup conditions. In CMS, the FastSimulation package is developed for providing a fast alternative to the standard simulation and reconstruction workflow. It employs various techniques to emulate track reconstruction effects in particle collision events. Several analysis groups in CMS are utilizing the package, in particular those requiring many samples to scan the parameter space of physics models (e.g. SUSY) or for the purpose of estimating systematic uncertainties. The strategies for and recent developments in this emulation are presented, including a novel, flexible implementation of tracking emulation w...

  13. Isokinetic muscle strength and readiness to return to sport following anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction: is there an association? A systematic review and a protocol recommendation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Undheim, Marit Baste; Cosgrave, Ciaran; King, Enda; Strike, Siobhán; Marshall, Brendan; Falvey, Éanna; Franklyn-Miller, Andrew

    2015-10-01

    Following anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction (ACLR), strength is a key variable in regaining full function of the knee. Isokinetic strength is commonly used as part of the return to sport (RTS) criteria. We systematically reviewed the isokinetic strength evaluation protocols that are currently being used following ACLR. A secondary aim was to suggest an isokinetic protocol that could meet RTS criteria. Articles were searched using ScienceDirect, PubMed and Sage Journals Online, combined with cross-checked reference lists of the publications. Protocol data and outcome measurements and RTS criteria were extracted from each article included in the review. 39 studies met the inclusion criteria and reported their isokinetic strength evaluation protocol following ACLR. The variables that were most commonly used were concentric/concentric mode of contraction (31 studies), angular velocity of 60°/s (29 studies), 3-5 repetitions (24 studies), range of motion of 0-90° (6 studies), and using gravity correction (9 studies). 8 studies reported strength limb symmetry index scores as part of their RTS criteria. There was no standardised isokinetic protocol following ACLR; isokinetic strength measures have not been validated as useful predictors of successful RTS. We propose a standard protocol to allow consistency of testing and accurate comparison of future research. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  14. Decision Making Under Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-11-01

    A sound approach to rational decision making requires a decision maker to establish decision objectives, identify alternatives, and evaluate those...often violate the axioms of rationality when making decisions under uncertainty. The systematic description of such observations may lead to the...which leads to “anchoring” on the initial value. The fact that individuals have been shown to deviate from rationality when making decisions

  15. Uncertainty theory

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Baoding

    2015-01-01

    When no samples are available to estimate a probability distribution, we have to invite some domain experts to evaluate the belief degree that each event will happen. Perhaps some people think that the belief degree should be modeled by subjective probability or fuzzy set theory. However, it is usually inappropriate because both of them may lead to counterintuitive results in this case. In order to rationally deal with belief degrees, uncertainty theory was founded in 2007 and subsequently studied by many researchers. Nowadays, uncertainty theory has become a branch of axiomatic mathematics for modeling belief degrees. This is an introductory textbook on uncertainty theory, uncertain programming, uncertain statistics, uncertain risk analysis, uncertain reliability analysis, uncertain set, uncertain logic, uncertain inference, uncertain process, uncertain calculus, and uncertain differential equation. This textbook also shows applications of uncertainty theory to scheduling, logistics, networks, data mining, c...

  16. Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses Plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simpson, J.C.; Ramsdell, J.V. Jr.

    1993-04-01

    Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project staff are developing mathematical models to be used to estimate the radiation dose that individuals may have received as a result of emissions since 1944 from the US Department of Energy's (DOE) Hanford Site near Richland, Washington. An uncertainty and sensitivity analyses plan is essential to understand and interpret the predictions from these mathematical models. This is especially true in the case of the HEDR models where the values of many parameters are unknown. This plan gives a thorough documentation of the uncertainty and hierarchical sensitivity analysis methods recommended for use on all HEDR mathematical models. The documentation includes both technical definitions and examples. In addition, an extensive demonstration of the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis process is provided using actual results from the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Integrated Codes (HEDRIC). This demonstration shows how the approaches used in the recommended plan can be adapted for all dose predictions in the HEDR Project

  17. Justification for recommended uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pronyaev, V.G.; Badikov, S.A.; Carlson, A.D.

    2007-01-01

    The uncertainties obtained in an earlier standards evaluation were considered to be unrealistically low by experts of the US Cross Section Evaluation Working Group (CSEWG). Therefore, the CSEWG Standards Subcommittee replaced the covariance matrices of evaluated uncertainties by expanded percentage errors that were assigned to the data over wide energy groups. There are a number of reasons that might lead to low uncertainties of the evaluated data: Underestimation of the correlations existing between the results of different measurements; The presence of unrecognized systematic uncertainties in the experimental data can lead to biases in the evaluated data as well as to underestimations of the resulting uncertainties; Uncertainties for correlated data cannot only be characterized by percentage uncertainties or variances. Covariances between evaluated value at 0.2 MeV and other points obtained in model (RAC R matrix and PADE2 analytical expansion) and non-model (GMA) fits of the 6 Li(n,t) TEST1 data and the correlation coefficients are presented and covariances between the evaluated value at 0.045 MeV and other points (along the line or column of the matrix) as obtained in EDA and RAC R matrix fits of the data available for reactions that pass through the formation of the 7 Li system are discussed. The GMA fit with the GMA database is shown for comparison. The following diagrams are discussed: Percentage uncertainties of the evaluated cross section for the 6 Li(n,t) reaction and the for the 235 U(n,f) reaction; estimation given by CSEWG experts; GMA result with full GMA database, including experimental data for the 6 Li(n,t), 6 Li(n,n) and 6 Li(n,total) reactions; uncertainties in the GMA combined fit for the standards; EDA and RAC R matrix results, respectively. Uncertainties of absolute and 252 Cf fission spectrum averaged cross section measurements, and deviations between measured and evaluated values for 235 U(n,f) cross-sections in the neutron energy range 1

  18. ERESYE - a expert system for the evaluation of uncertainties related to systematic experimental errors; ERESYE - un sistema esperto per la valutazione di incertezze correlate ad errori sperimentali sistematici

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martinelli, T; Panini, G C [ENEA - Dipartimento Tecnologie Intersettoriali di Base, Centro Ricerche Energia, Casaccia (Italy); Amoroso, A [Ricercatore Ospite (Italy)

    1989-11-15

    Information about systematic errors are not given In EXFOR, the data base of nuclear experimental measurements: their assessment is committed to the ability of the evaluator. A tool Is needed which performs this task in a fully automatic way or, at least, gives a valuable aid. The expert system ERESYE has been implemented for investigating the feasibility of an automatic evaluation of the systematic errors in the experiments. The features of the project which led to the implementation of the system are presented. (author)

  19. Teaching Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duerdoth, Ian

    2009-01-01

    The subject of uncertainties (sometimes called errors) is traditionally taught (to first-year science undergraduates) towards the end of a course on statistics that defines probability as the limit of many trials, and discusses probability distribution functions and the Gaussian distribution. We show how to introduce students to the concepts of…

  20. Calibration uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heydorn, Kaj; Anglov, Thomas

    2002-01-01

    Methods recommended by the International Standardization Organisation and Eurachem are not satisfactory for the correct estimation of calibration uncertainty. A novel approach is introduced and tested on actual calibration data for the determination of Pb by ICP-AES. The improved calibration...

  1. Reducing Uncertainties About the Effects of Chemoradiotherapy for Cervical Cancer : A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Individual Patient Data From 18 Randomized Trials

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vale, Claire; Tierney, Jayne F.; Stewart, Lesley A.; Brady, Mark; Dinshaw, Ketayun; Jakobsen, Anders; Parmar, Mahesh K. B.; Thomas, Gillian; Trimble, Ted; Alberts, David S.; Chen, Hongwei; Cikaric, Slobodan; Eifel, Patricia J.; Garipagaoglu, Melahat; Keys, Henry; Kantardzic, Nermina; Lal, Punita; Lanciano, Rachelle; Leborgne, Felix; Lorvidhaya, Vicharn; Onishi, Hiroshi; Pearcey, Robert G.; Pras, Elizabeth; Roberts, Kenneth; Rose, Peter G.; Thomas, Gillian; Whitney, Charles W.

    2008-01-01

    Background After a 1999 National Cancer Institute (NCI) clinical alert was issued, chemoradiotherapy has become widely used in treating women with cervical cancer. Two subsequent systematic reviews found that interpretation of the benefits was complicated, and some important clinical questions were

  2. Simplified propagation of standard uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shull, A.H.

    1997-01-01

    An essential part of any measurement control program is adequate knowledge of the uncertainties of the measurement system standards. Only with an estimate of the standards'' uncertainties can one determine if the standard is adequate for its intended use or can one calculate the total uncertainty of the measurement process. Purchased standards usually have estimates of uncertainty on their certificates. However, when standards are prepared and characterized by a laboratory, variance propagation is required to estimate the uncertainty of the standard. Traditional variance propagation typically involves tedious use of partial derivatives, unfriendly software and the availability of statistical expertise. As a result, the uncertainty of prepared standards is often not determined or determined incorrectly. For situations meeting stated assumptions, easier shortcut methods of estimation are now available which eliminate the need for partial derivatives and require only a spreadsheet or calculator. A system of simplifying the calculations by dividing into subgroups of absolute and relative uncertainties is utilized. These methods also incorporate the International Standards Organization (ISO) concepts for combining systematic and random uncertainties as published in their Guide to the Expression of Measurement Uncertainty. Details of the simplified methods and examples of their use are included in the paper

  3. Demand Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nguyen, Daniel Xuyen

    This paper presents a model of trade that explains why firms wait to export and why many exporters fail. Firms face uncertain demands that are only realized after the firm enters the destination. The model retools the timing of uncertainty resolution found in productivity heterogeneity models....... This retooling addresses several shortcomings. First, the imperfect correlation of demands reconciles the sales variation observed in and across destinations. Second, since demands for the firm's output are correlated across destinations, a firm can use previously realized demands to forecast unknown demands...... in untested destinations. The option to forecast demands causes firms to delay exporting in order to gather more information about foreign demand. Third, since uncertainty is resolved after entry, many firms enter a destination and then exit after learning that they cannot profit. This prediction reconciles...

  4. Knee Kinematics and Joint Moments During Stair Negotiation in Participants With Anterior Cruciate Ligament Deficiency and Reconstruction: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hajizadeh, Maryam; Hashemi Oskouei, Alireza; Ghalichi, Farzan; Sole, Gisela

    2016-06-01

    Biomechanical changes have been reported for patients with anterior cruciate ligament deficiency (ACLD) and anterior cruciate ligament (ACL reconstruction) (ACLR), likely due to loss of stability and changes in proprioception and neuromotor control. This review evaluated kinematics and kinetics of ACLD and ACLR knees, compared with those on the contralateral uninjured sides, as well as and those in asymptomatic controls during stair navigation. This is a systematic review and meta-analysis. Electronic database searches were conducted from their original available dates to January 2015. Studies that included participants with ACLD or ACLR and reported knee joint angles or moments during stair ascent or descent were included. Nine studies met the inclusion criteria, and the methodological quality of these was assessed with a modified Downs and Black checklist. Effect sizes for differences between injured leg and uninjured contralateral leg or controls were calculated, and meta-analyses were performed if two or more studies considered the same variable. Quality assessment showed an average (± standard deviation) of 70.3% ± 7.2%. Meta-analysis showed less knee flexion at initial contact for ACLR knees compared with that in contralateral knees during stair ascent, with a moderate effect size and minimal heterogeneity. Knees with ACLD showed less peak knee flexion compared with that on contralateral sides during stair ascent, with minimal heterogeneity. External knee flexion moments were lower for ACLR compared with those in controls and contralateral sides during ascent and descent, whereas these moments were decreased for the ACLD compared with controls only during ascent. Meta-analysis results exhibited moderate/high heterogeneity or small/trivial effect sizes. Differences for kinematics and kinetics for the ACL-injured knees indicate long-term compensatory and asymmetric movement patterns while ascending and descending stairs. Due to the heterogeneity as well as

  5. Propagation of dynamic measurement uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hessling, J P

    2011-01-01

    The time-dependent measurement uncertainty has been evaluated in a number of recent publications, starting from a known uncertain dynamic model. This could be defined as the 'downward' propagation of uncertainty from the model to the targeted measurement. The propagation of uncertainty 'upward' from the calibration experiment to a dynamic model traditionally belongs to system identification. The use of different representations (time, frequency, etc) is ubiquitous in dynamic measurement analyses. An expression of uncertainty in dynamic measurements is formulated for the first time in this paper independent of representation, joining upward as well as downward propagation. For applications in metrology, the high quality of the characterization may be prohibitive for any reasonably large and robust model to pass the whiteness test. This test is therefore relaxed by not directly requiring small systematic model errors in comparison to the randomness of the characterization. Instead, the systematic error of the dynamic model is propagated to the uncertainty of the measurand, analogously but differently to how stochastic contributions are propagated. The pass criterion of the model is thereby transferred from the identification to acceptance of the total accumulated uncertainty of the measurand. This increases the relevance of the test of the model as it relates to its final use rather than the quality of the calibration. The propagation of uncertainty hence includes the propagation of systematic model errors. For illustration, the 'upward' propagation of uncertainty is applied to determine if an appliance box is damaged in an earthquake experiment. In this case, relaxation of the whiteness test was required to reach a conclusive result

  6. Uncertainty, joint uncertainty, and the quantum uncertainty principle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narasimhachar, Varun; Poostindouz, Alireza; Gour, Gilad

    2016-01-01

    Historically, the element of uncertainty in quantum mechanics has been expressed through mathematical identities called uncertainty relations, a great many of which continue to be discovered. These relations use diverse measures to quantify uncertainty (and joint uncertainty). In this paper we use operational information-theoretic principles to identify the common essence of all such measures, thereby defining measure-independent notions of uncertainty and joint uncertainty. We find that most existing entropic uncertainty relations use measures of joint uncertainty that yield themselves to a small class of operational interpretations. Our notion relaxes this restriction, revealing previously unexplored joint uncertainty measures. To illustrate the utility of our formalism, we derive an uncertainty relation based on one such new measure. We also use our formalism to gain insight into the conditions under which measure-independent uncertainty relations can be found. (paper)

  7. Uncertainty quantification and error analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Higdon, Dave M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Anderson, Mark C [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Habib, Salman [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Klein, Richard [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Berliner, Mark [OHIO STATE UNIV.; Covey, Curt [LLNL; Ghattas, Omar [UNIV OF TEXAS; Graziani, Carlo [UNIV OF CHICAGO; Seager, Mark [LLNL; Sefcik, Joseph [LLNL; Stark, Philip [UC/BERKELEY; Stewart, James [SNL

    2010-01-01

    UQ studies all sources of error and uncertainty, including: systematic and stochastic measurement error; ignorance; limitations of theoretical models; limitations of numerical representations of those models; limitations on the accuracy and reliability of computations, approximations, and algorithms; and human error. A more precise definition for UQ is suggested below.

  8. Strategy under uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Courtney, H; Kirkland, J; Viguerie, P

    1997-01-01

    At the heart of the traditional approach to strategy lies the assumption that by applying a set of powerful analytic tools, executives can predict the future of any business accurately enough to allow them to choose a clear strategic direction. But what happens when the environment is so uncertain that no amount of analysis will allow us to predict the future? What makes for a good strategy in highly uncertain business environments? The authors, consultants at McKinsey & Company, argue that uncertainty requires a new way of thinking about strategy. All too often, they say, executives take a binary view: either they underestimate uncertainty to come up with the forecasts required by their companies' planning or capital-budging processes, or they overestimate it, abandon all analysis, and go with their gut instinct. The authors outline a new approach that begins by making a crucial distinction among four discrete levels of uncertainty that any company might face. They then explain how a set of generic strategies--shaping the market, adapting to it, or reserving the right to play at a later time--can be used in each of the four levels. And they illustrate how these strategies can be implemented through a combination of three basic types of actions: big bets, options, and no-regrets moves. The framework can help managers determine which analytic tools can inform decision making under uncertainty--and which cannot. At a broader level, it offers executives a discipline for thinking rigorously and systematically about uncertainty and its implications for strategy.

  9. Photometric Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Xiao-Duan; Li, Jian-Yang; Clark, Beth Ellen; Golish, Dathon

    2018-01-01

    The OSIRIS-REx spacecraft, launched in September, 2016, will study the asteroid Bennu and return a sample from its surface to Earth in 2023. Bennu is a near-Earth carbonaceous asteroid which will provide insight into the formation and evolution of the solar system. OSIRIS-REx will first approach Bennu in August 2018 and will study the asteroid for approximately two years before sampling. OSIRIS-REx will develop its photometric model (including Lommel-Seelinger, ROLO, McEwen, Minnaert and Akimov) of Bennu with OCAM and OVIRS during the Detailed Survey mission phase. The model developed during this phase will be used to photometrically correct the OCAM and OVIRS data.Here we present the analysis of the error for the photometric corrections. Based on our testing data sets, we find:1. The model uncertainties is only correct when we use the covariance matrix to calculate, because the parameters are highly correlated.2. No evidence of domination of any parameter in each model.3. And both model error and the data error contribute to the final correction error comparably.4. We tested the uncertainty module on fake and real data sets, and find that model performance depends on the data coverage and data quality. These tests gave us a better understanding of how different model behave in different case.5. L-S model is more reliable than others. Maybe because the simulated data are based on L-S model. However, the test on real data (SPDIF) does show slight advantage of L-S, too. ROLO is not reliable to use when calculating bond albedo. The uncertainty of McEwen model is big in most cases. Akimov performs unphysical on SOPIE 1 data.6. Better use L-S as our default choice, this conclusion is based mainly on our test on SOPIE data and IPDIF.

  10. Uncertainty analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, R.E.

    1982-03-01

    An evaluation is made of the suitability of analytical and statistical sampling methods for making uncertainty analyses. The adjoint method is found to be well-suited for obtaining sensitivity coefficients for computer programs involving large numbers of equations and input parameters. For this purpose the Latin Hypercube Sampling method is found to be inferior to conventional experimental designs. The Latin hypercube method can be used to estimate output probability density functions, but requires supplementary rank transformations followed by stepwise regression to obtain uncertainty information on individual input parameters. A simple Cork and Bottle problem is used to illustrate the efficiency of the adjoint method relative to certain statistical sampling methods. For linear models of the form Ax=b it is shown that a complete adjoint sensitivity analysis can be made without formulating and solving the adjoint problem. This can be done either by using a special type of statistical sampling or by reformulating the primal problem and using suitable linear programming software

  11. Muon reconstruction efficiency, momentum scale and resolution in pp collisions at 8TeV with ATLAS

    CERN Document Server

    Dimitrievska, A; The ATLAS collaboration; Sforza, F

    2014-01-01

    The ATLAS experiment identifies and reconstructs muons with two high precision tracking systems, the inner detector and the muon spectrometer, which provide independent measurements of the muon momentum. This poster summarizes the performance of the combined muon reconstruction in terms of reconstruction efficiency, momentum scale and resolution. Data-driven techniques are used to derive corrections to be applied to simulation in order to reproduce the reconstruction efficiency, momentum scale and resolution as observed in experimental data, and to asses systematic uncertainties on these quantities. The analysed dataset corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 20.4 fb−1 from pp collisions at center of mass enegy of 8 TeV recorded in 2012.

  12. Position reconstruction in LUX

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akerib, D. S.; Alsum, S.; Araújo, H. M.; Bai, X.; Bailey, A. J.; Balajthy, J.; Beltrame, P.; Bernard, E. P.; Bernstein, A.; Biesiadzinski, T. P.; Boulton, E. M.; Brás, P.; Byram, D.; Cahn, S. B.; Carmona-Benitez, M. C.; Chan, C.; Currie, A.; Cutter, J. E.; Davison, T. J. R.; Dobi, A.; Druszkiewicz, E.; Edwards, B. N.; Fallon, S. R.; Fan, A.; Fiorucci, S.; Gaitskell, R. J.; Genovesi, J.; Ghag, C.; Gilchriese, M. G. D.; Hall, C. R.; Hanhardt, M.; Haselschwardt, S. J.; Hertel, S. A.; Hogan, D. P.; Horn, M.; Huang, D. Q.; Ignarra, C. M.; Jacobsen, R. G.; Ji, W.; Kamdin, K.; Kazkaz, K.; Khaitan, D.; Knoche, R.; Larsen, N. A.; Lenardo, B. G.; Lesko, K. T.; Lindote, A.; Lopes, M. I.; Manalaysay, A.; Mannino, R. L.; Marzioni, M. F.; McKinsey, D. N.; Mei, D.-M.; Mock, J.; Moongweluwan, M.; Morad, J. A.; Murphy, A. St. J.; Nehrkorn, C.; Nelson, H. N.; Neves, F.; O'Sullivan, K.; Oliver-Mallory, K. C.; Palladino, K. J.; Pease, E. K.; Rhyne, C.; Shaw, S.; Shutt, T. A.; Silva, C.; Solmaz, M.; Solovov, V. N.; Sorensen, P.; Sumner, T. J.; Szydagis, M.; Taylor, D. J.; Taylor, W. C.; Tennyson, B. P.; Terman, P. A.; Tiedt, D. R.; To, W. H.; Tripathi, M.; Tvrznikova, L.; Uvarov, S.; Velan, V.; Verbus, J. R.; Webb, R. C.; White, J. T.; Whitis, T. J.; Witherell, M. S.; Wolfs, F. L. H.; Xu, J.; Yazdani, K.; Young, S. K.; Zhang, C.

    2018-02-01

    The (x, y) position reconstruction method used in the analysis of the complete exposure of the Large Underground Xenon (LUX) experiment is presented. The algorithm is based on a statistical test that makes use of an iterative method to recover the photomultiplier tube (PMT) light response directly from the calibration data. The light response functions make use of a two dimensional functional form to account for the photons reflected on the inner walls of the detector. To increase the resolution for small pulses, a photon counting technique was employed to describe the response of the PMTs. The reconstruction was assessed with calibration data including 83mKr (releasing a total energy of 41.5 keV) and 3H (β- with Q = 18.6 keV) decays, and a deuterium-deuterium (D-D) neutron beam (2.45 MeV) . Within the detector's fiducial volume, the reconstruction has achieved an (x, y) position uncertainty of σ = 0.82 cm and σ = 0.17 cm for events of only 200 and 4,000 detected electroluminescence photons respectively. Such signals are associated with electron recoils of energies ~0.25 keV and ~10 keV, respectively. The reconstructed position of the smallest events with a single electron emitted from the liquid surface (22 detected photons) has a horizontal (x, y) uncertainty of 2.13 cm.

  13. Systematics and morphological evolution within the moss family Bryaceae: a comparison between parsimony and Bayesian methods for reconstruction of ancestral character states.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedersen, Niklas; Holyoak, David T; Newton, Angela E

    2007-06-01

    The Bryaceae are a large cosmopolitan moss family including genera of significant morphological and taxonomic complexity. Phylogenetic relationships within the Bryaceae were reconstructed based on DNA sequence data from all three genomic compartments. In addition, maximum parsimony and Bayesian inference were employed to reconstruct ancestral character states of 38 morphological plus four habitat characters and eight insertion/deletion events. The recovered phylogenetic patterns are generally in accord with previous phylogenies based on chloroplast DNA sequence data and three major clades are identified. The first clade comprises Bryum bornholmense, B. rubens, B. caespiticium, and Plagiobryum. This corroborates the hypothesis suggested by previous studies that several Bryum species are more closely related to Plagiobryum than to the core Bryum species. The second clade includes Acidodontium, Anomobryum, and Haplodontium, while the third clade contains the core Bryum species plus Imbribryum. Within the latter clade, B. subapiculatum and B. tenuisetum form the sister clade to Imbribryum. Reconstructions of ancestral character states under maximum parsimony and Bayesian inference suggest fourteen morphological synapomorphies for the ingroup and synapomorphies are detected for most clades within the ingroup. Maximum parsimony and Bayesian reconstructions of ancestral character states are mostly congruent although Bayesian inference shows that the posterior probability of ancestral character states may decrease dramatically when node support is taken into account. Bayesian inference also indicates that reconstructions may be ambiguous at internal nodes for highly polymorphic characters.

  14. Model uncertainties in top-quark physics

    CERN Document Server

    Seidel, Markus

    2014-01-01

    The ATLAS and CMS collaborations at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) are studying the top quark in pp collisions at 7 and 8 TeV. Due to the large integrated luminosity, precision measurements of production cross-sections and properties are often limited by systematic uncertainties. An overview of the modeling uncertainties for simulated events is given in this report.

  15. A MISMATCH IN THE ULTRAVIOLET SPECTRA BETWEEN LOW-REDSHIFT AND INTERMEDIATE-REDSHIFT TYPE Ia SUPERNOVAE AS A POSSIBLE SYSTEMATIC UNCERTAINTY FOR SUPERNOVA COSMOLOGY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Foley, Ryan J. [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Filippenko, Alexei V. [Department of Astronomy, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720-3411 (United States); Kessler, Richard; Frieman, Joshua A. [Kavli Institute for Cosmological Physics, The University of Chicago, 5640 South Ellis Avenue, Chicago, IL 60637 (United States); Bassett, Bruce; Smith, Mathew [Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701 (South Africa); Garnavich, Peter M. [Department of Physics, University of Notre Dame, 225 Nieuwland Science, Notre Dame, IN 46556-5670 (United States); Jha, Saurabh W. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Rutgers University, 136 Frelinghuysen Road, Piscataway, NJ 08854 (United States); Konishi, Kohki [Institute for Cosmic Ray Research, University of Tokyo, 5-1-5, Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa, Chiba 277-8582 (Japan); Lampeitl, Hubert [Institute of Cosmology and Gravitation, University of Portsmouth, Mercantile House, Hampshire Terrace, Portsmouth PO1 2EG (United Kingdom); Riess, Adam G. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States); Sako, Masao [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Pennsylvania, 209 South 33rd Street, Philadelphia, PA 19104 (United States); Schneider, Donald P. [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, 525 Davey Laboratory, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802 (United States); Sollerman, Jesper, E-mail: rfoley@cfa.harvard.edu [Oskar Klein Centre, Department of Astronomy, Stockholm University, 106 91 Stockholm (Sweden)

    2012-05-15

    We present Keck high-quality rest-frame ultraviolet (UV) through optical spectra of 21 Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) in the redshift range 0.11 {<=} z {<=} 0.37 and a mean redshift of 0.22 that were discovered during the Sloan Digital Sky Survey-II (SDSS-II) SN Survey. Using the broadband photometry of the SDSS survey, we are able to reconstruct the SN host-galaxy spectral energy distributions (SEDs), allowing for a correction for the host-galaxy contamination in the SN Ia spectra. Comparison of composite spectra constructed from a subsample of 17 high-quality spectra to those created from a low-redshift sample with otherwise similar properties shows that the Keck/SDSS SNe Ia have, on average, extremely similar rest-frame optical spectra but show a UV flux excess. This observation is confirmed by comparing synthesized broadband colors of the individual spectra, showing a difference in mean colors at the 2.4{sigma}-4.4{sigma} level for various UV colors. We further see a slight difference in the UV spectral shape between SNe with low-mass and high-mass host galaxies. Additionally, we detect a relationship between the flux ratio at 2770 and 2900 A and peak luminosity that differs from that observed at low redshift. We find that changing the UV SED of an SN Ia within the observed dispersion can change the inferred distance moduli by {approx}0.1 mag. This effect only occurs when the data probe the rest-frame UV. We suggest that this discrepancy could be due to differences in the host-galaxy population of the two SN samples or to small-sample statistics.

  16. Uncertainties in Nuclear Proliferation Modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Chul Min; Yim, Man-Sung; Park, Hyeon Seok

    2015-01-01

    There have been various efforts in the research community to understand the determinants of nuclear proliferation and develop quantitative tools to predict nuclear proliferation events. Such systematic approaches have shown the possibility to provide warning for the international community to prevent nuclear proliferation activities. However, there are still large debates for the robustness of the actual effect of determinants and projection results. Some studies have shown that several factors can cause uncertainties in previous quantitative nuclear proliferation modeling works. This paper analyzes the uncertainties in the past approaches and suggests future works in the view of proliferation history, analysis methods, and variable selection. The research community still lacks the knowledge for the source of uncertainty in current models. Fundamental problems in modeling will remain even other advanced modeling method is developed. Before starting to develop fancy model based on the time dependent proliferation determinants' hypothesis, using graph theory, etc., it is important to analyze the uncertainty of current model to solve the fundamental problems of nuclear proliferation modeling. The uncertainty from different proliferation history coding is small. Serious problems are from limited analysis methods and correlation among the variables. Problems in regression analysis and survival analysis cause huge uncertainties when using the same dataset, which decreases the robustness of the result. Inaccurate variables for nuclear proliferation also increase the uncertainty. To overcome these problems, further quantitative research should focus on analyzing the knowledge suggested on the qualitative nuclear proliferation studies

  17. Myocutaneous sternocleidomastoid flap for reconstruction after the resection of a parapharyngeal heterotopic glioma in a child with cleft palate, and systematic review of parapharyngeal glial heterotopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prado-Calleros, Héctor M; Arrieta-Gómez, José R; Castillo-Ventura, Beatriz; Martínez, Sara Parraguirre; Jiménez-Gutiérrez, Carlos; Jiménez-Escobar, Irma

    2016-02-01

    We describe the surgery and reconstruction employed with a sternocleidomastoid myocutaneous flap for the treatment of a heterotopic glioma in a 2-year-old boy with incomplete palatal fissure who presented with dysphagia and snoring, in whom a lateral pharyngeal wall mass obstructing 60% of the airway was noted. Heterotopic gliomas are uncommonly reported in the parapharyngeal space and should be included in the differential diagnosis at this location in children. Parapharyngeal tumors present difficult diagnostic and management challenges; head and neck surgeons must be prepared not only for the resection but also for the reconstruction of these rare lesions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. A sliding mode observer for hemodynamic characterization under modeling uncertainties

    KAUST Repository

    Zayane, Chadia; Laleg-Kirati, Taous-Meriem

    2014-01-01

    This paper addresses the case of physiological states reconstruction in a small region of the brain under modeling uncertainties. The misunderstood coupling between the cerebral blood volume and the oxygen extraction fraction has lead to a partial

  19. Evidence-Based ACL Reconstruction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Carlos RODRIGUEZ-MERCHAN

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available There is controversy in the literature regarding a number of topics related to anterior cruciate ligament (ACLreconstruction. The purpose of this article is to answer the following questions: 1 Bone patellar tendon bone (BPTB reconstruction or hamstring reconstruction (HR; 2 Double bundle or single bundle; 3 Allograft or authograft; 4 Early or late reconstruction; 5 Rate of return to sports after ACL reconstruction; 6 Rate of osteoarthritis after ACL reconstruction. A Cochrane Library and PubMed (MEDLINE search of systematic reviews and meta-analysis related to ACL reconstruction was performed. The key words were: ACL reconstruction, systematic reviews and meta-analysis. The main criteria for selection were that the articles were systematic reviews and meta-analysesfocused on the aforementioned questions. Sixty-nine articles were found, but only 26 were selected and reviewed because they had a high grade (I-II of evidence. BPTB-R was associated with better postoperative knee stability but with a higher rate of morbidity. However, the results of both procedures in terms of functional outcome in the long-term were similar. The double-bundle ACL reconstruction technique showed better outcomes in rotational laxity, although functional recovery was similar between single-bundle and double-bundle. Autograft yielded better results than allograft. There was no difference between early and delayed reconstruction. 82% of patients were able to return to some kind of sport participation. 28% of patients presented radiological signs of osteoarthritis with a follow-up of minimum 10 years.

  20. Uncertainty and measurement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Landsberg, P.T.

    1990-01-01

    This paper explores how the quantum mechanics uncertainty relation can be considered to result from measurements. A distinction is drawn between the uncertainties obtained by scrutinising experiments and the standard deviation type of uncertainty definition used in quantum formalism. (UK)

  1. Climate Reconstructions

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Paleoclimatology Program archives reconstructions of past climatic conditions derived from paleoclimate proxies, in addition to the Program's large holdings...

  2. The uncertainties in estimating measurement uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, J.P.; Shull, A.H.

    1994-01-01

    All measurements include some error. Whether measurements are used for accountability, environmental programs or process support, they are of little value unless accompanied by an estimate of the measurements uncertainty. This fact is often overlooked by the individuals who need measurements to make decisions. This paper will discuss the concepts of measurement, measurements errors (accuracy or bias and precision or random error), physical and error models, measurement control programs, examples of measurement uncertainty, and uncertainty as related to measurement quality. Measurements are comparisons of unknowns to knowns, estimates of some true value plus uncertainty; and are no better than the standards to which they are compared. Direct comparisons of unknowns that match the composition of known standards will normally have small uncertainties. In the real world, measurements usually involve indirect comparisons of significantly different materials (e.g., measuring a physical property of a chemical element in a sample having a matrix that is significantly different from calibration standards matrix). Consequently, there are many sources of error involved in measurement processes that can affect the quality of a measurement and its associated uncertainty. How the uncertainty estimates are determined and what they mean is as important as the measurement. The process of calculating the uncertainty of a measurement itself has uncertainties that must be handled correctly. Examples of chemistry laboratory measurement will be reviewed in this report and recommendations made for improving measurement uncertainties

  3. Treatment and reporting of uncertainties for environmental radiation measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colle, R.

    1980-01-01

    Recommendations for a practical and uniform method for treating and reporting uncertainties in environmental radiation measurements data are presented. The method requires that each reported measurement result include the value, a total propagated random uncertainty expressed as the standard deviation, and a combined overall uncertainty. The uncertainty assessment should be based on as nearly a complete assessment as possible and should include every conceivable or likely source of inaccuracy in the result. Guidelines are given for estimating random and systematic uncertainty components, and for propagating and combining them to form an overall uncertainty

  4. Uncertainties in the estimation of specific absorption rate during radiofrequency alternating magnetic field induced non-adiabatic heating of ferrofluids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahiri, B. B.; Ranoo, Surojit; Philip, John

    2017-11-01

    Magnetic fluid hyperthermia (MFH) is becoming a viable cancer treatment methodology where the alternating magnetic field induced heating of magnetic fluid is utilized for ablating the cancerous cells or making them more susceptible to the conventional treatments. The heating efficiency in MFH is quantified in terms of specific absorption rate (SAR), which is defined as the heating power generated per unit mass. In majority of the experimental studies, SAR is evaluated from the temperature rise curves, obtained under non-adiabatic experimental conditions, which is prone to various thermodynamic uncertainties. A proper understanding of the experimental uncertainties and its remedies is a prerequisite for obtaining accurate and reproducible SAR. Here, we study the thermodynamic uncertainties associated with peripheral heating, delayed heating, heat loss from the sample and spatial variation in the temperature profile within the sample. Using first order approximations, an adiabatic reconstruction protocol for the measured temperature rise curves is developed for SAR estimation, which is found to be in good agreement with those obtained from the computationally intense slope corrected method. Our experimental findings clearly show that the peripheral and delayed heating are due to radiation heat transfer from the heating coils and slower response time of the sensor, respectively. Our results suggest that the peripheral heating is linearly proportional to the sample area to volume ratio and coil temperature. It is also observed that peripheral heating decreases in presence of a non-magnetic insulating shielding. The delayed heating is found to contribute up to ~25% uncertainties in SAR values. As the SAR values are very sensitive to the initial slope determination method, explicit mention of the range of linear regression analysis is appropriate to reproduce the results. The effect of sample volume to area ratio on linear heat loss rate is systematically studied and the

  5. Uncertainties in the estimation of specific absorption rate during radiofrequency alternating magnetic field induced non-adiabatic heating of ferrofluids

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lahiri, B B; Ranoo, Surojit; Philip, John

    2017-01-01

    Magnetic fluid hyperthermia (MFH) is becoming a viable cancer treatment methodology where the alternating magnetic field induced heating of magnetic fluid is utilized for ablating the cancerous cells or making them more susceptible to the conventional treatments. The heating efficiency in MFH is quantified in terms of specific absorption rate (SAR), which is defined as the heating power generated per unit mass. In majority of the experimental studies, SAR is evaluated from the temperature rise curves, obtained under non-adiabatic experimental conditions, which is prone to various thermodynamic uncertainties. A proper understanding of the experimental uncertainties and its remedies is a prerequisite for obtaining accurate and reproducible SAR. Here, we study the thermodynamic uncertainties associated with peripheral heating, delayed heating, heat loss from the sample and spatial variation in the temperature profile within the sample. Using first order approximations, an adiabatic reconstruction protocol for the measured temperature rise curves is developed for SAR estimation, which is found to be in good agreement with those obtained from the computationally intense slope corrected method. Our experimental findings clearly show that the peripheral and delayed heating are due to radiation heat transfer from the heating coils and slower response time of the sensor, respectively. Our results suggest that the peripheral heating is linearly proportional to the sample area to volume ratio and coil temperature. It is also observed that peripheral heating decreases in presence of a non-magnetic insulating shielding. The delayed heating is found to contribute up to ∼25% uncertainties in SAR values. As the SAR values are very sensitive to the initial slope determination method, explicit mention of the range of linear regression analysis is appropriate to reproduce the results. The effect of sample volume to area ratio on linear heat loss rate is systematically studied and

  6. Uncertainty in social dilemmas

    OpenAIRE

    Kwaadsteniet, Erik Willem de

    2007-01-01

    This dissertation focuses on social dilemmas, and more specifically, on environmental uncertainty in these dilemmas. Real-life social dilemma situations are often characterized by uncertainty. For example, fishermen mostly do not know the exact size of the fish population (i.e., resource size uncertainty). Several researchers have therefore asked themselves the question as to how such uncertainty influences people’s choice behavior. These researchers have repeatedly concluded that uncertainty...

  7. Advantages and Disadvantages of Transtibial, Anteromedial Portal, and Outside-In Femoral Tunnel Drilling in Single-Bundle Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction: A Systematic Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robin, Brett N; Jani, Sunil S; Marvil, Sean C; Reid, John B; Schillhammer, Carl K; Lubowitz, James H

    2015-07-01

    Controversy exists regarding the best method for creating the knee anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) femoral tunnel or socket. The purpose of this study was to systematically review the risks, benefits, advantages, and disadvantages of the endoscopic transtibial (TT) technique, anteromedial portal technique, outside-in technique, and outside-in retrograde drilling technique for creating the ACL femoral tunnel. A PubMed search of English-language studies published between January 1, 2000, and February 17, 2014, was performed using the following keywords: "anterior cruciate ligament" AND "femoral tunnel." Included were studies reporting risks, benefits, advantages, and/or disadvantages of any ACL femoral technique. In addition, references of included articles were reviewed to identify potential studies missed in the original search. A total of 27 articles were identified through the search. TT technique advantages include familiarity and proven long-term outcomes; disadvantages include the risk of nonanatomic placement because of constrained (TT) drilling. Anteromedial portal technique advantages include unconstrained anatomic placement; disadvantages include technical challenges, short tunnels or sockets, and posterior-wall blowout. Outside-in technique advantages include unconstrained anatomic placement; disadvantages include the need for 2 incisions. Retrograde drilling technique advantages include unconstrained anatomic placement, as well as all-epiphyseal drilling in skeletally immature patients; disadvantages include the need for fluoroscopy for all-epiphyseal drilling. There is no one, single, established "gold-standard" technique for creation of the ACL femoral socket. Four accepted techniques show diverse and subjective advantages, disadvantages, risks, and benefits. Level V, systematic review of Level II through V evidence. Copyright © 2015 Arthroscopy Association of North America. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Helioseismic and neutrino data-driven reconstruction of solar properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Ningqiang; Gonzalez-Garcia, M. C.; Villante, Francesco L.; Vinyoles, Nuria; Serenelli, Aldo

    2018-06-01

    In this work, we use Bayesian inference to quantitatively reconstruct the solar properties most relevant to the solar composition problem using as inputs the information provided by helioseismic and solar neutrino data. In particular, we use a Gaussian process to model the functional shape of the opacity uncertainty to gain flexibility and become as free as possible from prejudice in this regard. With these tools we first readdress the statistical significance of the solar composition problem. Furthermore, starting from a composition unbiased set of standard solar models (SSMs) we are able to statistically select those with solar chemical composition and other solar inputs which better describe the helioseismic and neutrino observations. In particular, we are able to reconstruct the solar opacity profile in a data-driven fashion, independently of any reference opacity tables, obtaining a 4 per cent uncertainty at the base of the convective envelope and 0.8 per cent at the solar core. When systematic uncertainties are included, results are 7.5 per cent and 2 per cent, respectively. In addition, we find that the values of most of the other inputs of the SSMs required to better describe the helioseismic and neutrino data are in good agreement with those adopted as the standard priors, with the exception of the astrophysical factor S11 and the microscopic diffusion rates, for which data suggests a 1 per cent and 30 per cent reduction, respectively. As an output of the study we derive the corresponding data-driven predictions for the solar neutrino fluxes.

  9. Uncertainty of the calibration factor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    According to present definitions, an error is the difference between a measured value and the ''true'' value. Thus an error has both a numerical value and a sign. In contrast, the uncertainly associated with a measurement is a parameter that characterizes the dispersion of the values ''that could reasonably be attributed to the measurand''. This parameter is normally an estimated standard deviation. An uncertainty, therefore, has no known sign and is usually assumed to be symmetrical. It is a measure of our lack of exact knowledge, after all recognized ''systematic'' effects have been eliminated by applying appropriate corrections. If errors were known exactly, the true value could be determined and there would be no problem left. In reality, errors are estimated in the best possible way and corrections made for them. Therefore, after application of all known corrections, errors need no further consideration (their expectation value being zero) and the only quantities of interest are uncertainties. 3 refs, 2 figs

  10. Vaginal reconstruction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lesavoy, M.A.

    1985-01-01

    Vaginal reconstruction can be an uncomplicated and straightforward procedure when attention to detail is maintained. The Abbe-McIndoe procedure of lining the neovaginal canal with split-thickness skin grafts has become standard. The use of the inflatable Heyer-Schulte vaginal stent provides comfort to the patient and ease to the surgeon in maintaining approximation of the skin graft. For large vaginal and perineal defects, myocutaneous flaps such as the gracilis island have been extremely useful for correction of radiation-damaged tissue of the perineum or for the reconstruction of large ablative defects. Minimal morbidity and scarring ensue because the donor site can be closed primarily. With all vaginal reconstruction, a compliant patient is a necessity. The patient must wear a vaginal obturator for a minimum of 3 to 6 months postoperatively and is encouraged to use intercourse as an excellent obturator. In general, vaginal reconstruction can be an extremely gratifying procedure for both the functional and emotional well-being of patients

  11. ACL Reconstruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... in moderate exercise and recreational activities, or play sports that put less stress on the knees. ACL reconstruction is generally recommended if: You're an athlete and want to continue in your sport, especially if the sport involves jumping, cutting or ...

  12. Big data uncertainties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maugis, Pierre-André G

    2018-07-01

    Big data-the idea that an always-larger volume of information is being constantly recorded-suggests that new problems can now be subjected to scientific scrutiny. However, can classical statistical methods be used directly on big data? We analyze the problem by looking at two known pitfalls of big datasets. First, that they are biased, in the sense that they do not offer a complete view of the populations under consideration. Second, that they present a weak but pervasive level of dependence between all their components. In both cases we observe that the uncertainty of the conclusion obtained by statistical methods is increased when used on big data, either because of a systematic error (bias), or because of a larger degree of randomness (increased variance). We argue that the key challenge raised by big data is not only how to use big data to tackle new problems, but to develop tools and methods able to rigorously articulate the new risks therein. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  13. Diagnosing and prioritizing uncertainties according to their relevance for policy: The case of transgene silencing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krayer von Krauss, M.P.; Kaiser, M.; Almaas, V.; van der Sluijs, J.P.; Kloprogge, P.

    2008-01-01

    Uncertainty often becomes problematic when science is used to support decision making in the policy process. Scientists can contribute to a more constructive approach to uncertainty by making their uncertainties transparent. In this article, an approach to systematic uncertainty diagnosis is

  14. Oak Ridge Dose Reconstruction Project Summary Report; Reports of the Oak Ridge Dose Reconstruction, Vol. 7

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomas E. Widner; et. al.

    1999-07-01

    In the early 1990s, concern about the Oak Ridge Reservation's past releases of contaminants to the environment prompted Tennessee's public health officials to pursue an in-depth study of potential off-site health effects at Oak Ridge. This study, the Oak Ridge dose reconstruction, was supported by an agreement between the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the State of Tennessee, and was overseen by a 12-member panel of individuals appointed by Tennessee's Commissioner of Health. The panel requested that the principal investigator for the project prepare the following report, ''Oak Ridge Dose Reconstruction Project Summary Report,'' to serve the following purposes: (1) summarize in a single, less technical report, the methods and results of the various investigations that comprised the Phase II of the dose reconstruction; (2) describe the systematic searching of classified and unclassified historical records that was a vital component of the project; and (3) summarize the less detailed, screening-level assessments that were performed to evaluate the potential health significance of a number of materials, such a uranium, whose priority did not require a complete dose reconstruction effort. This report describes each major step of the dose reconstruction study: (1) the review of thousands of historical records to obtain information relating to past operations at each facility; (2) estimation of the quantity and timing of releases of radioiodines from X-10, of mercury from Y-12, of PCB's from all facilities, and of cesium-137 and other radionuclides from White Oak Creek; (3) evaluation of the routes taken by these contaminants through the environment to nearby populations; and (4) estimation of doses and health risks to exposed groups. Calculations found the highest excess cancer risks for a female born in 1952 who drank goat milk; the highest non-cancer health risk was for children in a farm family exposed to PCBs in and near

  15. Oak Ridge Dose Reconstruction Project Summary Report; Reports of the Oak Ridge Dose Reconstruction, Vol. 7

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Widner, Thomas E.; email = twidner@jajoneses.com

    1999-01-01

    In the early 1990s, concern about the Oak Ridge Reservation's past releases of contaminants to the environment prompted Tennessee's public health officials to pursue an in-depth study of potential off-site health effects at Oak Ridge. This study, the Oak Ridge dose reconstruction, was supported by an agreement between the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the State of Tennessee, and was overseen by a 12-member panel of individuals appointed by Tennessee's Commissioner of Health. The panel requested that the principal investigator for the project prepare the following report, ''Oak Ridge Dose Reconstruction Project Summary Report,'' to serve the following purposes: (1) summarize in a single, less technical report, the methods and results of the various investigations that comprised the Phase II of the dose reconstruction; (2) describe the systematic searching of classified and unclassified historical records that was a vital component of the project; and (3) summarize the less detailed, screening-level assessments that were performed to evaluate the potential health significance of a number of materials, such a uranium, whose priority did not require a complete dose reconstruction effort. This report describes each major step of the dose reconstruction study: (1) the review of thousands of historical records to obtain information relating to past operations at each facility; (2) estimation of the quantity and timing of releases of radioiodines from X-10, of mercury from Y-12, of PCB's from all facilities, and of cesium-137 and other radionuclides from White Oak Creek; (3) evaluation of the routes taken by these contaminants through the environment to nearby populations; and (4) estimation of doses and health risks to exposed groups. Calculations found the highest excess cancer risks for a female born in 1952 who drank goat milk; the highest non-cancer health risk was for children in a farm family exposed to PCBs in and near East Fork Poplar Creek. More detailed

  16. Instrument uncertainty predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coutts, D.A.

    1991-07-01

    The accuracy of measurements and correlations should normally be provided for most experimental activities. The uncertainty is a measure of the accuracy of a stated value or equation. The uncertainty term reflects a combination of instrument errors, modeling limitations, and phenomena understanding deficiencies. This report provides several methodologies to estimate an instrument's uncertainty when used in experimental work. Methods are shown to predict both the pretest and post-test uncertainty

  17. Sparse Image Reconstruction in Computed Tomography

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Jakob Sauer

    In recent years, increased focus on the potentially harmful effects of x-ray computed tomography (CT) scans, such as radiation-induced cancer, has motivated research on new low-dose imaging techniques. Sparse image reconstruction methods, as studied for instance in the field of compressed sensing...... applications. This thesis takes a systematic approach toward establishing quantitative understanding of conditions for sparse reconstruction to work well in CT. A general framework for analyzing sparse reconstruction methods in CT is introduced and two sets of computational tools are proposed: 1...... contributions to a general set of computational characterization tools. Thus, the thesis contributions help advance sparse reconstruction methods toward routine use in...

  18. Quantifying uncertainty in LCA-modelling of waste management systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clavreul, Julie; Guyonnet, D.; Christensen, Thomas Højlund

    2012-01-01

    Uncertainty analysis in LCA studies has been subject to major progress over the last years. In the context of waste management, various methods have been implemented but a systematic method for uncertainty analysis of waste-LCA studies is lacking. The objective of this paper is (1) to present...... the sources of uncertainty specifically inherent to waste-LCA studies, (2) to select and apply several methods for uncertainty analysis and (3) to develop a general framework for quantitative uncertainty assessment of LCA of waste management systems. The suggested method is a sequence of four steps combining...

  19. Projected uranium measurement uncertainties for the Gas Centrifuge Enrichment Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Younkin, J.M.

    1979-02-01

    An analysis was made of the uncertainties associated with the measurements of the declared uranium streams in the Portsmouth Gas Centrifuge Enrichment Plant (GCEP). The total uncertainty for the GCEP is projected to be from 54 to 108 kg 235 U/year out of a measured total of 200,000 kg 235 U/year. The systematic component of uncertainty of the UF 6 streams is the largest and the dominant contributor to the total uncertainty. A possible scheme for reducing the total uncertainty is given

  20. Uncertainty In Measuring Noise Parameters Of a Communication Receiver

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Korcz, Karol; Palczynska, Beata; Spiralski, Ludwik

    2005-01-01

    The paper presents the method of assessing uncertainty in measuring the usable sensitivity Es of communication receiver. The influence of partial uncertainties of measuring the noise factor F and the energy pass band of the receiver Δf on the combined standard uncertainty level is analyzed. The method to assess the uncertainty in measuring the noise factor on the basis of the systematic component of uncertainty, assuming that the main source of measurement uncertainty is the hardware of the measuring system, is proposed. The assessment of uncertainty in measuring the pass band of the receiver is determined with the assumption that input quantities of the measurement equation are not correlated. They are successive, discrete values of the spectral power density of the noise on the output of receiver. The results of the analyses of particular uncertainties components of measuring the sensitivity, which were carried out for a typical communication receiver, are presented

  1. Maxillary reconstruction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brown James

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available This article aims to discuss the various defects that occur with maxillectomy with a full review of the literature and discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of the various techniques described. Reconstruction of the maxilla can be relatively simple for the standard low maxillectomy that does not involve the orbital floor (Class 2. In this situation the structure of the face is less damaged and the there are multiple reconstructive options for the restoration of the maxilla and dental alveolus. If the maxillectomy includes the orbit (Class 4 then problems involving the eye (enopthalmos, orbital dystopia, ectropion and diplopia are avoided which simplifies the reconstruction. Most controversy is associated with the maxillectomy that involves the orbital floor and dental alveolus (Class 3. A case is made for the use of the iliac crest with internal oblique as an ideal option but there are other methods, which may provide a similar result. A multidisciplinary approach to these patients is emphasised which should include a prosthodontist with a special expertise for these defects.

  2. Performance of Missing Transverse Momentum Reconstruction in Proton-Proton Collisions at $\\sqrt{s}$ = 7 TeV with ATLAS

    CERN Document Server

    Aad, Georges; Abdallah, Jalal; Abdelalim, Ahmed Ali; Abdesselam, Abdelouahab; Abdinov, Ovsat; Abi, Babak; Abolins, Maris; Abramowicz, Halina; Abreu, Henso; Acerbi, Emilio; Acharya, Bobby Samir; Adams, David; Addy, Tetteh; Adelman, Jahred; Aderholz, Michael; Adomeit, Stefanie; Adragna, Paolo; Adye, Tim; Aefsky, Scott; Aguilar-Saavedra, Juan Antonio; Aharrouche, Mohamed; Ahlen, Steven; Ahles, Florian; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Ahsan, Mahsana; Aielli, Giulio; Akdogan, Taylan; Akesson, Torsten Paul; Akimoto, Ginga; Akimov, Andrei; Akiyama, Kunihiro; Alam, Mohammad; Alam, Muhammad Aftab; Albert, Justin; Albrand, Solveig; Aleksa, Martin; Aleksandrov, Igor; Alessandria, Franco; Alexa, Calin; Alexander, Gideon; Alexandre, Gauthier; Alexopoulos, Theodoros; Alhroob, Muhammad; Aliev, Malik; Alimonti, Gianluca; Alison, John; Aliyev, Magsud; Allport, Phillip; Allwood-Spiers, Sarah; Almond, John; Aloisio, Alberto; Alon, Raz; Alonso, Alejandro; Alviggi, Mariagrazia; Amako, Katsuya; Amaral, Pedro; Amelung, Christoph; Ammosov, Vladimir; Amorim, Antonio; Amoros, Gabriel; Amram, Nir; Anastopoulos, Christos; Ancu, Lucian Stefan; Andari, Nansi; Andeen, Timothy; Anders, Christoph Falk; Anders, Gabriel; Anderson, Kelby; Andreazza, Attilio; Andrei, George Victor; Andrieux, Marie-Laure; Anduaga, Xabier; Angerami, Aaron; Anghinolfi, Francis; Anjos, Nuno; Annovi, Alberto; Antonaki, Ariadni; Antonelli, Mario; Antonov, Alexey; Antos, Jaroslav; Anulli, Fabio; Aoun, Sahar; Aperio Bella, Ludovica; Apolle, Rudi; Arabidze, Giorgi; Aracena, Ignacio; Arai, Yasuo; Arce, Ayana; Archambault, John-Paul; Arfaoui, Samir; Arguin, Jean-Francois; Arik, Engin; Arik, Metin; Armbruster, Aaron James; Arnaez, Olivier; Arnault, Christian; Artamonov, Andrei; Artoni, Giacomo; Arutinov, David; Asai, Shoji; Asfandiyarov, Ruslan; Ask, Stefan; Asman, Barbro; Asquith, Lily; Assamagan, Ketevi; Astbury, Alan; Astvatsatourov, Anatoli; Atoian, Grigor; Aubert, Bernard; Auerbach, Benjamin; Auge, Etienne; Augsten, Kamil; Aurousseau, Mathieu; Austin, Nicholas; Avolio, Giuseppe; Avramidou, Rachel Maria; Axen, David; Ay, Cano; Azuelos, Georges; Azuma, Yuya; Baak, Max; Baccaglioni, Giuseppe; Bacci, Cesare; Bach, Andre; Bachacou, Henri; Bachas, Konstantinos; Bachy, Gerard; Backes, Moritz; Backhaus, Malte; Badescu, Elisabeta; Bagnaia, Paolo; Bahinipati, Seema; Bai, Yu; Bailey, David; Bain, Travis; Baines, John; Baker, Oliver Keith; Baker, Mark; Baker, Sarah; Banas, Elzbieta; Banerjee, Piyali; Banerjee, Swagato; Banfi, Danilo; Bangert, Andrea Michelle; Bansal, Vikas; Bansil, Hardeep Singh; Barak, Liron; Baranov, Sergei; Barashkou, Andrei; Galtieri, Angela Barbaro; Barber, Tom; Barberio, Elisabetta Luigia; Barberis, Dario; Barbero, Marlon; Bardin, Dmitri; Barillari, Teresa; Barisonzi, Marcello; Barklow, Timothy; Barlow, Nick; Barnett, Bruce; Barnett, Michael; Baroncelli, Antonio; Barone, Gaetano; Barr, Alan; Barreiro, Fernando; Barreiro Guimaraes da Costa, Joao; Barrillon, Pierre; Bartoldus, Rainer; Barton, Adam Edward; Bartsch, Detlef; Bartsch, Valeria; Bates, Richard; Batkova, Lucia; Batley, Richard; Battaglia, Andreas; Battistin, Michele; Battistoni, Giuseppe; Bauer, Florian; Bawa, Harinder Singh; Beare, Brian; Beau, Tristan; Beauchemin, Pierre-Hugues; Beccherle, Roberto; Bechtle, Philip; Beck, Hans Peter; Beckingham, Matthew; Becks, Karl-Heinz; Beddall, Andrew; Beddall, Ayda; Bedikian, Sourpouhi; Bednyakov, Vadim; Bee, Christopher; Begel, Michael; Behar Harpaz, Silvia; Behera, Prafulla; Beimforde, Michael; Belanger-Champagne, Camille; Bell, Paul; Bell, William; Bella, Gideon; Bellagamba, Lorenzo; Bellina, Francesco; Bellomo, Massimiliano; Belloni, Alberto; Beloborodova, Olga; Belotskiy, Konstantin; Beltramello, Olga; Ben Ami, Sagi; Benary, Odette; Benchekroun, Driss; Benchouk, Chafik; Bendel, Markus; Benekos, Nektarios; Benhammou, Yan; Benjamin, Douglas; Benoit, Mathieu; Bensinger, James; Benslama, Kamal; Bentvelsen, Stan; Berge, David; Bergeaas Kuutmann, Elin; Berger, Nicolas; Berghaus, Frank; Berglund, Elina; Beringer, Jurg; Bernardet, Karim; Bernat, Pauline; Bernhard, Ralf; Bernius, Catrin; Berry, Tracey; Bertin, Antonio; Bertinelli, Francesco; Bertolucci, Federico; Besana, Maria Ilaria; Besson, Nathalie; Bethke, Siegfried; Bhimji, Wahid; Bianchi, Riccardo-Maria; Bianco, Michele; Biebel, Otmar; Bieniek, Stephen Paul; Bierwagen, Katharina; Biesiada, Jed; Biglietti, Michela; Bilokon, Halina; Bindi, Marcello; Binet, Sebastien; Bingul, Ahmet; Bini, Cesare; Biscarat, Catherine; Bitenc, Urban; Black, Kevin; Blair, Robert; Blanchard, Jean-Baptiste; Blanchot, Georges; Blazek, Tomas; Blocker, Craig; Blocki, Jacek; Blondel, Alain; Blum, Walter; Blumenschein, Ulrike; Bobbink, Gerjan; Bobrovnikov, Victor; Bocchetta, Simona Serena; Bocci, Andrea; Boddy, Christopher Richard; Boehler, Michael; Boek, Jennifer; Boelaert, Nele; Boser, Sebastian; Bogaerts, Joannes Andreas; Bogdanchikov, Alexander; Bogouch, Andrei; Bohm, Christian; Boisvert, Veronique; Bold, Tomasz; Boldea, Venera; Bolnet, Nayanka Myriam; Bona, Marcella; Bondarenko, Valery; Boonekamp, Maarten; Boorman, Gary; Booth, Chris; Bordoni, Stefania; Borer, Claudia; Borisov, Anatoly; Borissov, Guennadi; Borjanovic, Iris; Borroni, Sara; Bos, Kors; Boscherini, Davide; Bosman, Martine; Boterenbrood, Hendrik; Botterill, David; Bouchami, Jihene; Boudreau, Joseph; Bouhova-Thacker, Evelina Vassileva; Bourdarios, Claire; Bousson, Nicolas; Boveia, Antonio; Boyd, James; Boyko, Igor; Bozhko, Nikolay; Bozovic-Jelisavcic, Ivanka; Bracinik, Juraj; Braem, Andre; Branchini, Paolo; Brandenburg, George; Brandt, Andrew; Brandt, Gerhard; Brandt, Oleg; Bratzler, Uwe; Brau, Benjamin; Brau, James; Braun, Helmut; Brelier, Bertrand; Bremer, Johan; Brenner, Richard; Bressler, Shikma; Breton, Dominique; Britton, Dave; Brochu, Frederic; Brock, Ian; Brock, Raymond; Brodbeck, Timothy; Brodet, Eyal; Broggi, Francesco; Bromberg, Carl; Brooijmans, Gustaaf; Brooks, William; Brown, Gareth; Brown, Heather; Bruckman de Renstrom, Pawel; Bruncko, Dusan; Bruneliere, Renaud; Brunet, Sylvie; Bruni, Alessia; Bruni, Graziano; Bruschi, Marco; Buanes, Trygve; Bucci, Francesca; Buchanan, James; Buchanan, Norman; Buchholz, Peter; Buckingham, Ryan; Buckley, Andrew; Buda, Stelian Ioan; Budagov, Ioulian; Budick, Burton; Buscher, Volker; Bugge, Lars; Buira-Clark, Daniel; Bulekov, Oleg; Bunse, Moritz; Buran, Torleiv; Burckhart, Helfried; Burdin, Sergey; Burgess, Thomas; Burke, Stephen; Busato, Emmanuel; Bussey, Peter; Buszello, Claus-Peter; Butin, Francois; Butler, Bart; Butler, John; Buttar, Craig; Butterworth, Jonathan; Buttinger, William; Byatt, Tom; Cabrera Urban, Susana; Caforio, Davide; Cakir, Orhan; Calafiura, Paolo; Calderini, Giovanni; Calfayan, Philippe; Calkins, Robert; Caloba, Luiz; Caloi, Rita; Calvet, David; Calvet, Samuel; Camacho Toro, Reina; Camarri, Paolo; Cambiaghi, Mario; Cameron, David; Campana, Simone; Campanelli, Mario; Canale, Vincenzo; Canelli, Florencia; Canepa, Anadi; Cantero, Josu; Capasso, Luciano; Garrido, Maria Del Mar Capeans; Caprini, Irinel; Caprini, Mihai; Capriotti, Daniele; Capua, Marcella; Caputo, Regina; Caramarcu, Costin; Cardarelli, Roberto; Carli, Tancredi; Carlino, Gianpaolo; Carminati, Leonardo; Caron, Bryan; Caron, Sascha; Montoya, German D.Carrillo; Carter, Antony; Carter, Janet; Carvalho, Joao; Casadei, Diego; Casado, Maria Pilar; Cascella, Michele; Caso, Carlo; Castaneda Hernandez, Alfredo Martin; Castaneda-Miranda, Elizabeth; Castillo Gimenez, Victoria; Castro, Nuno Filipe; Cataldi, Gabriella; Cataneo, Fernando; Catinaccio, Andrea; Catmore, James; Cattai, Ariella; Cattani, Giordano; Caughron, Seth; Cauz, Diego; Cavalleri, Pietro; Cavalli, Donatella; Cavalli-Sforza, Matteo; Cavasinni, Vincenzo; Ceradini, Filippo; Santiago Cerqueira, Augusto; Cerri, Alessandro; Cerrito, Lucio; Cerutti, Fabio; Cetin, Serkant Ali; Cevenini, Francesco; Chafaq, Aziz; Chakraborty, Dhiman; Chan, Kevin; Chapleau, Bertrand; Chapman, John Derek; Chapman, John Wehrley; Chareyre, Eve; Charlton, Dave; Chavda, Vikash; Chavez Barajas, Carlos Alberto; Cheatham, Susan; Chekanov, Sergei; Chekulaev, Sergey; Chelkov, Gueorgui; Chelstowska, Magda Anna; Chen, Chunhui; Chen, Hucheng; Chen, Shenjian; Chen, Tingyang; Chen, Xin; Cheng, Shaochen; Cheplakov, Alexander; Chepurnov, Vladimir; Cherkaoui El Moursli, Rajaa; Chernyatin, Valeriy; Cheu, Elliott; Cheung, Sing-Leung; Chevalier, Laurent; Chiefari, Giovanni; Chikovani, Leila; Childers, John Taylor; Chilingarov, Alexandre; Chiodini, Gabriele; Chizhov, Mihail; Choudalakis, Georgios; Chouridou, Sofia; Christidi, Illectra-Athanasia; Christov, Asen; Chromek-Burckhart, Doris; Chu, Ming-Lee; Chudoba, Jiri; Ciapetti, Guido; Ciba, Krzysztof; Ciftci, Abbas Kenan; Ciftci, Rena; Cinca, Diane; Cindro, Vladimir; Ciobotaru, Matei Dan; Ciocca, Claudia; Ciocio, Alessandra; Cirilli, Manuela; Ciubancan, Mihai; Clark, Allan G.; Clark, Philip James; Cleland, Bill; Clemens, Jean-Claude; Clement, Benoit; Clement, Christophe; Clifft, Roger; Coadou, Yann; Cobal, Marina; Coccaro, Andrea; Cochran, James H.; Coe, Paul; Cogan, Joshua Godfrey; Coggeshall, James; Cogneras, Eric; Cojocaru, Claudiu; Colas, Jacques; Colijn, Auke-Pieter; Collard, Caroline; Collins, Neil; Collins-Tooth, Christopher; Collot, Johann; Colon, German; Conde Muino, Patricia; Coniavitis, Elias; Conidi, Maria Chiara; Consonni, Michele; Consorti, Valerio; Constantinescu, Serban; Conta, Claudio; Conventi, Francesco; Cook, James; Cooke, Mark; Cooper, Ben; Cooper-Sarkar, Amanda; Cooper-Smith, Neil; Copic, Katherine; Cornelissen, Thijs; Corradi, Massimo; Corriveau, Francois; Cortes-Gonzalez, Arely; Cortiana, Giorgio; Costa, Giuseppe; Costa, Maria Jose; Costanzo, Davide; Costin, Tudor; Cote, David; Coura Torres, Rodrigo; Courneyea, Lorraine; Cowan, Glen; Cowden, Christopher; Cox, Brian; Cranmer, Kyle; Crescioli, Francesco; Cristinziani, Markus; Crosetti, Giovanni; Crupi, Roberto; Crepe-Renaudin, Sabine; Cuciuc, Constantin-Mihai; Cuenca Almenar, Cristobal; Donszelmann, Tulay Cuhadar; Curatolo, Maria; Curtis, Chris; Cwetanski, Peter; Czirr, Hendrik; Czyczula, Zofia; D'Auria, Saverio; D'Onofrio, Monica; D'Orazio, Alessia; Da Silva, Paulo Vitor; Da Via, Cinzia; Dabrowski, Wladyslaw; Dai, Tiesheng; Dallapiccola, Carlo; Dam, Mogens; Dameri, Mauro; Damiani, Daniel; Danielsson, Hans Olof; Dannheim, Dominik; Dao, Valerio; Darbo, Giovanni; Darlea, Georgiana Lavinia; Daum, Cornelis; Dauvergne, Jean-Pierre; Davey, Will; Davidek, Tomas; Davidson, Nadia; Davidson, Ruth; Davies, Eleanor; Davies, Merlin; Davison, Adam; Davygora, Yuriy; Dawe, Edmund; Dawson, Ian; Dawson, John; Daya, Rozmin; De, Kaushik; De Asmundis, Riccardo; De Castro, Stefano; De Castro Faria Salgado, Pedro; De Cecco, Sandro; de Graat, Julien; De Groot, Nicolo; de Jong, Paul; de la Taille, Christophe; de la Torre, Hector; De Lotto, Barbara; De Mora, Lee; De Nooij, Lucie; De Oliveira Branco, Miguel; De Pedis, Daniele; De Salvo, Alessandro; De Sanctis, Umberto; De Santo, Antonella; de Vivie De Regie, Jean-Baptiste; Dean, Simon; Dedovich, Dmitri; Degenhardt, James; Dehchar, Mohamed; del Papa, Carlo; del Peso, Jose; del Prete, Tarcisio; Deliyergiyev, Maksym; Dell'Acqua, Andrea; Dell'Asta, Lidia; Della Pietra, Massimo; della Volpe, Domenico; Delmastro, Marco; Delpierre, Pierre; Delruelle, Nicolas; Delsart, Pierre-Antoine; Deluca, Carolina; Demers, Sarah; Demichev, Mikhail; Demirkoz, Bilge; Deng, Jianrong; Denisov, Sergey; Derendarz, Dominik; Derkaoui, Jamal Eddine; Derue, Frederic; Dervan, Paul; Desch, Klaus Kurt; Devetak, Erik; Deviveiros, Pier-Olivier; Dewhurst, Alastair; DeWilde, Burton; Dhaliwal, Saminder; Dhullipudi, Ramasudhakar; Di Ciaccio, Anna; Di Ciaccio, Lucia; Di Girolamo, Alessandro; Di Girolamo, Beniamino; Di Luise, Silvestro; Di Mattia, Alessandro; Di Micco, Biagio; Di Nardo, Roberto; Di Simone, Andrea; Di Sipio, Riccardo; Diaz, Marco Aurelio; Diblen, Faruk; Diehl, Edward; Dietrich, Janet; Dietzsch, Thorsten; Diglio, Sara; Yagci, Kamile Dindar; Dingfelder, Jochen; Dionisi, Carlo; Dita, Petre; Dita, Sanda; Dittus, Fridolin; Djama, Fares; Djobava, Tamar; Barros do Vale, Maria Aline; Do Valle Wemans, Andre; Doan, Thi Kieu Oanh; Dobbs, Matt; Dobinson, Robert; Dobos, Daniel; Dobson, Ellie; Dobson, Marc; Dodd, Jeremy; Doglioni, Caterina; Doherty, Tom; Doi, Yoshikuni; Dolejsi, Jiri; Dolenc, Irena; Dolezal, Zdenek; Dolgoshein, Boris; Dohmae, Takeshi; Donadelli, Marisilvia; Donega, Mauro; Donini, Julien; Dopke, Jens; Doria, Alessandra; dos Anjos, Andre; Dosil, Mireia; Dotti, Andrea; Dova, Maria-Teresa; Dowell, John; Doxiadis, Alexander; Doyle, Tony; Drasal, Zbynek; Drees, Jurgen; Dressnandt, Nandor; Drevermann, Hans; Driouichi, Chafik; Dris, Manolis; Dubbert, Jorg; Dubbs, Tim; Dube, Sourabh; Duchovni, Ehud; Duckeck, Guenter; Dudarev, Alexey; Dudziak, Fanny; Duhrssen, Michael; Duerdoth, Ian; Duflot, Laurent; Dufour, Marc-Andre; Dunford, Monica; Duran Yildiz, Hatice; Duxfield, Robert; Dwuznik, Michal; Dydak, Friedrich; Dzahini, Daniel; Duren, Michael; Ebenstein, William; Ebke, Johannes; Eckert, Simon; Eckweiler, Sebastian; Edmonds, Keith; Edwards, Clive; Edwards, Nicholas Charles; Ehrenfeld, Wolfgang; Ehrich, Thies; Eifert, Till; Eigen, Gerald; Einsweiler, Kevin; Eisenhandler, Eric; Ekelof, Tord; El Kacimi, Mohamed; Ellert, Mattias; Elles, Sabine; Ellinghaus, Frank; Ellis, Katherine; Ellis, Nicolas; Elmsheuser, Johannes; Elsing, Markus; Emeliyanov, Dmitry; Engelmann, Roderich; Engl, Albert; Epp, Brigitte; Eppig, Andrew; Erdmann, Johannes; Ereditato, Antonio; Eriksson, Daniel; Ernst, Jesse; Ernst, Michael; Ernwein, Jean; Errede, Deborah; Errede, Steven; Ertel, Eugen; Escalier, Marc; Escobar, Carlos; Espinal Curull, Xavier; Esposito, Bellisario; Etienne, Francois; Etienvre, Anne-Isabelle; Etzion, Erez; Evangelakou, Despoina; Evans, Hal; Fabbri, Laura; Fabre, Caroline; Fakhrutdinov, Rinat; Falciano, Speranza; Fang, Yaquan; Fanti, Marcello; Farbin, Amir; Farilla, Addolorata; Farley, Jason; Farooque, Trisha; Farrington, Sinead; Farthouat, Philippe; Fassnacht, Patrick; Fassouliotis, Dimitrios; Fatholahzadeh, Baharak; Favareto, Andrea; Fayard, Louis; Fazio, Salvatore; Febbraro, Renato; Federic, Pavol; Fedin, Oleg; Fedorko, Woiciech; Fehling-Kaschek, Mirjam; Feligioni, Lorenzo; Fellmann, Denis; Felzmann, Ulrich; Feng, Cunfeng; Feng, Eric; Fenyuk, Alexander; Ferencei, Jozef; Ferland, Jonathan; Fernando, Waruna; Ferrag, Samir; Ferrando, James; Ferrara, Valentina; Ferrari, Arnaud; Ferrari, Pamela; Ferrari, Roberto; Ferrer, Antonio; Ferrer, Maria Lorenza; Ferrere, Didier; Ferretti, Claudio; Ferretto Parodi, Andrea; Fiascaris, Maria; Fiedler, Frank; Filipcic, Andrej; Filippas, Anastasios; Filthaut, Frank; Fincke-Keeler, Margret; Fiolhais, Miguel; Fiorini, Luca; Firan, Ana; Fischer, Gordon; Fischer, Peter; Fisher, Matthew; Fisher, Steve; Flechl, Martin; Fleck, Ivor; Fleckner, Johanna; Fleischmann, Philipp; Fleischmann, Sebastian; Flick, Tobias; Flores Castillo, Luis; Flowerdew, Michael; Fokitis, Manolis; Fonseca Martin, Teresa; Forbush, David Alan; Formica, Andrea; Forti, Alessandra; Fortin, Dominique; Foster, Joe; Fournier, Daniel; Foussat, Arnaud; Fowler, Andrew; Fowler, Ken; Fox, Harald; Francavilla, Paolo; Franchino, Silvia; Francis, David; Frank, Tal; Franklin, Melissa; Franz, Sebastien; Fraternali, Marco; Fratina, Sasa; French, Sky; Friedrich, Felix; Froeschl, Robert; Froidevaux, Daniel; Frost, James; Fukunaga, Chikara; Fullana Torregrosa, Esteban; Fuster, Juan; Gabaldon, Carolina; Gabizon, Ofir; Gadfort, Thomas; Gadomski, Szymon; Gagliardi, Guido; Gagnon, Pauline; Galea, Cristina; Gallas, Elizabeth; Gallas, Manuel; Gallo, Valentina Santina; Gallop, Bruce; Gallus, Petr; Galyaev, Eugene; Gan, K.K.; Gao, Yongsheng; Gapienko, Vladimir; Gaponenko, Andrei; Garberson, Ford; Garcia-Sciveres, Maurice; Garcia, Carmen; Garcia Navarro, Jose Enrique; Gardner, Robert; Garelli, Nicoletta; Garitaonandia, Hegoi; Garonne, Vincent; Garvey, John; Gatti, Claudio; Gaudio, Gabriella; Gaumer, Olivier; Gaur, Bakul; Gauthier, Lea; Gavrilenko, Igor; Gay, Colin; Gaycken, Goetz; Gayde, Jean-Christophe; Gazis, Evangelos; Ge, Peng; Gee, Norman; Geerts, Dani\\|{e}l Alphonsus Adrianus; Geich-Gimbel, Christoph; Gellerstedt, Karl; Gemme, Claudia; Gemmell, Alistair; Genest, Marie-Helene; Gentile, Simonetta; George, Matthias; George, Simon; Gerlach, Peter; Gershon, Avi; Geweniger, Christoph; Ghazlane, Hamid; Ghez, Philippe; Ghodbane, Nabil; Giacobbe, Benedetto; Giagu, Stefano; Giakoumopoulou, Victoria; Giangiobbe, Vincent; Gianotti, Fabiola; Gibbard, Bruce; Gibson, Adam; Gibson, Stephen; Gilbert, Laura; Gilchriese, Murdock; Gilewsky, Valentin; Gillberg, Dag; Gillman, Tony; Gingrich, Douglas; Ginzburg, Jonatan; Giokaris, Nikos; Giordano, Raffaele; Giorgi, Francesco Michelangelo; Giovannini, Paola; Giraud, Pierre-Francois; Giugni, Danilo; Giunta, Michele; Giusti, Paolo; Gjelsten, Borge Kile; Gladilin, Leonid; Glasman, Claudia; Glatzer, Julian; Glazov, Alexandre; Glitza, Karl-Walter; Glonti, George; Godfrey, Jennifer; Godlewski, Jan; Goebel, Martin; Gopfert, Thomas; Goeringer, Christian; Gossling, Claus; Gottfert, Tobias; Goldfarb, Steven; Goldin, Daniel; Golling, Tobias; Golovnia, Serguei; Gomes, Agostinho; Gomez Fajardo, Luz Stella; Goncalo, Ricardo; Goncalves Pinto Firmino Da Costa, Joao; Gonella, Laura; Gonidec, Allain; Gonzalez, Saul; Gonzalez de la Hoz, Santiago; Gonzalez Silva, Laura; Gonzalez-Sevilla, Sergio; Goodson, Jeremiah Jet; Goossens, Luc; Gorbounov, Petr Andreevich; Gordon, Howard; Gorelov, Igor; Gorfine, Grant; Gorini, Benedetto; Gorini, Edoardo; Gorisek, Andrej; Gornicki, Edward; Gorokhov, Serguei; Goryachev, Vladimir; Gosdzik, Bjoern; Gosselink, Martijn; Gostkin, Mikhail Ivanovitch; Gough Eschrich, Ivo; Gouighri, Mohamed; Goujdami, Driss; Goulette, Marc Phillippe; Goussiou, Anna; Goy, Corinne; Grabowska-Bold, Iwona; Grabski, Varlen; Grafstrom, Per; Grah, Christian; Grahn, Karl-Johan; Grancagnolo, Francesco; Grancagnolo, Sergio; Grassi, Valerio; Gratchev, Vadim; Grau, Nathan; Gray, Heather; Gray, Julia Ann; Graziani, Enrico; Grebenyuk, Oleg; Greenfield, Debbie; Greenshaw, Timothy; Greenwood, Zeno Dixon; Gregersen, Kristian; Gregor, Ingrid-Maria; Grenier, Philippe; Griffiths, Justin; Grigalashvili, Nugzar; Grillo, Alexander; Grinstein, Sebastian; Grishkevich, Yaroslav; Grivaz, Jean-Francois; Grognuz, Joel; Groh, Manfred; Gross, Eilam; Grosse-Knetter, Joern; Groth-Jensen, Jacob; Grybel, Kai; Guarino, Victor; Guest, Daniel; Guicheney, Christophe; Guida, Angelo; Guillemin, Thibault; Guindon, Stefan; Guler, Hulya; Gunther, Jaroslav; Guo, Bin; Guo, Jun; Gupta, Ambreesh; Gusakov, Yury; Gushchin, Vladimir; Gutierrez, Andrea; Gutierrez, Phillip; Guttman, Nir; Gutzwiller, Olivier; Guyot, Claude; Gwenlan, Claire; Gwilliam, Carl; Haas, Andy; Haas, Stefan; Haber, Carl; Hackenburg, Robert; Hadavand, Haleh Khani; Hadley, David; Haefner, Petra; Hahn, Ferdinand; Haider, Stefan; Hajduk, Zbigniew; Hakobyan, Hrachya; Haller, Johannes; Hamacher, Klaus; Hamal, Petr; Hamilton, Andrew; Hamilton, Samuel; Han, Hongguang; Han, Liang; Hanagaki, Kazunori; Hance, Michael; Handel, Carsten; Hanke, Paul; Hansen, John Renner; Hansen, Jorgen Beck; Hansen, Jorn Dines; Hansen, Peter Henrik; Hansson, Per; Hara, Kazuhiko; Hare, Gabriel; Harenberg, Torsten; Harkusha, Siarhei; Harper, Devin; Harrington, Robert; Harris, Orin; Harrison, Karl; Hartert, Jochen; Hartjes, Fred; Haruyama, Tomiyoshi; Harvey, Alex; Hasegawa, Satoshi; Hasegawa, Yoji; Hassani, Samira; Hatch, Mark; Hauff, Dieter; Haug, Sigve; Hauschild, Michael; Hauser, Reiner; Havranek, Miroslav; Hawes, Brian; Hawkes, Christopher; Hawkings, Richard John; Hawkins, Donovan; Hayakawa, Takashi; Hayden, Daniel; Hayward, Helen; Haywood, Stephen; Hazen, Eric; He, Mao; Head, Simon; Hedberg, Vincent; Heelan, Louise; Heim, Sarah; Heinemann, Beate; Heisterkamp, Simon; Helary, Louis; Heller, Mathieu; Hellman, Sten; Hellmich, Dennis; Helsens, Clement; Henderson, Robert; Henke, Michael; Henrichs, Anna; Henriques Correia, Ana Maria; Henrot-Versille, Sophie; Henry-Couannier, Frederic; Hensel, Carsten; Henss, Tobias; Medina Hernandez, Carlos; Hernandez Jimenez, Yesenia; Herrberg, Ruth; Hershenhorn, Alon David; Herten, Gregor; Hertenberger, Ralf; Hervas, Luis; Hessey, Nigel; Hidvegi, Attila; Higon-Rodriguez, Emilio; Hill, Daniel; Hill, John; Hill, Norman; Hiller, Karl Heinz; Hillert, Sonja; Hillier, Stephen; Hinchliffe, Ian; Hines, Elizabeth; Hirose, Minoru; Hirsch, Florian; Hirschbuehl, Dominic; Hobbs, John; Hod, Noam; Hodgkinson, Mark; Hodgson, Paul; Hoecker, Andreas; Hoeferkamp, Martin; Hoffman, Julia; Hoffmann, Dirk; Hohlfeld, Marc; Holder, Martin; Holmgren, Sven-Olof; Holy, Tomas; Holzbauer, Jenny; Homma, Yasuhiro; Hong, Tae Min; Hooft van Huysduynen, Loek; Horazdovsky, Tomas; Horn, Claus; Horner, Stephan; Horton, Katherine; Hostachy, Jean-Yves; Hou, Suen; Houlden, Michael; Hoummada, Abdeslam; Howarth, James; Howell, David; Hristova, Ivana; Hrivnac, Julius; Hruska, Ivan; Hryn'ova, Tetiana; Hsu, Pai-hsien Jennifer; Hsu, Shih-Chieh; Huang, Guang Shun; Hubacek, Zdenek; Hubaut, Fabrice; Huegging, Fabian; Huffman, Todd Brian; Hughes, Emlyn; Hughes, Gareth; Hughes-Jones, Richard; Huhtinen, Mika; Hurst, Peter; Hurwitz, Martina; Husemann, Ulrich; Huseynov, Nazim; Huston, Joey; Huth, John; Iacobucci, Giuseppe; Iakovidis, Georgios; Ibbotson, Michael; Ibragimov, Iskander; Ichimiya, Ryo; Iconomidou-Fayard, Lydia; Idarraga, John; Idzik, Marek; Iengo, Paolo; Igonkina, Olga; Ikegami, Yoichi; Ikeno, Masahiro; Ilchenko, Yuri; Iliadis, Dimitrios; Ilic, Nikolina; Imbault, Didier; Imhaeuser, Martin; Imori, Masatoshi; Ince, Tayfun; Inigo-Golfin, Joaquin; Ioannou, Pavlos; Iodice, Mauro; Ionescu, Gelu; Irles Quiles, Adrian; Ishii, Koji; Ishikawa, Akimasa; Ishino, Masaya; Ishmukhametov, Renat; Issever, Cigdem; Istin, Serhat; Ivashin, Anton; Iwanski, Wieslaw; Iwasaki, Hiroyuki; Izen, Joseph; Izzo, Vincenzo; Jackson, Brett; Jackson, John; Jackson, Paul; Jaekel, Martin; Jain, Vivek; Jakobs, Karl; Jakobsen, Sune; Jakubek, Jan; Jana, Dilip; Jankowski, Ernest; Jansen, Eric; Jantsch, Andreas; Janus, Michel; Jarlskog, Goran; Jeanty, Laura; Jelen, Kazimierz; Jen-La Plante, Imai; Jenni, Peter; Jeremie, Andrea; Jez, Pavel; Jezequel, Stephane; Jha, Manoj Kumar; Ji, Haoshuang; Ji, Weina; Jia, Jiangyong; Jiang, Yi; Jimenez Belenguer, Marcos; Jin, Ge; Jin, Shan; Jinnouchi, Osamu; Joergensen, Morten Dam; Joffe, David; Johansen, Lars; Johansen, Marianne; Johansson, Erik; Johansson, Per; Johnert, Sebastian; Johns, Kenneth; Jon-And, Kerstin; Jones, Graham; Jones, Roger; Jones, Tegid; Jones, Tim; Jonsson, Ove; Joram, Christian; Jorge, Pedro; Joseph, John; Jovin, Tatjana; Ju, Xiangyang; Juranek, Vojtech; Jussel, Patrick; Juste Rozas, Aurelio; Kabachenko, Vasily; Kabana, Sonja; Kaci, Mohammed; Kaczmarska, Anna; Kadlecik, Peter; Kado, Marumi; Kagan, Harris; Kagan, Michael; Kaiser, Steffen; Kajomovitz, Enrique; Kalinin, Sergey; Kalinovskaya, Lidia; Kama, Sami; Kanaya, Naoko; Kaneda, Michiru; Kanno, Takayuki; Kantserov, Vadim; Kanzaki, Junichi; Kaplan, Benjamin; Kapliy, Anton; Kaplon, Jan; Kar, Deepak; Karagoz, Muge; Karnevskiy, Mikhail; Karr, Kristo; Kartvelishvili, Vakhtang; Karyukhin, Andrey; Kashif, Lashkar; Kasmi, Azzedine; Kass, Richard; Kastanas, Alex; Kataoka, Mayuko; Kataoka, Yousuke; Katsoufis, Elias; Katzy, Judith; Kaushik, Venkatesh; Kawagoe, Kiyotomo; Kawamoto, Tatsuo; Kawamura, Gen; Kayl, Manuel; Kazanin, Vassili; Kazarinov, Makhail; Keates, James Robert; Keeler, Richard; Kehoe, Robert; Keil, Markus; Kekelidze, George; Kelly, Marc; Kennedy, John; Kenney, Christopher John; Kenyon, Mike; Kepka, Oldrich; Kerschen, Nicolas; Kersevan, Borut Paul; Kersten, Susanne; Kessoku, Kohei; Ketterer, Christian; Keung, Justin; Khakzad, Mohsen; Khalil-zada, Farkhad; Khandanyan, Hovhannes; Khanov, Alexander; Kharchenko, Dmitri; Khodinov, Alexander; Kholodenko, Anatoli; Khomich, Andrei; Khoo, Teng Jian; Khoriauli, Gia; Khoroshilov, Andrey; Khovanskiy, Nikolai; Khovanskiy, Valery; Khramov, Evgeniy; Khubua, Jemal; Kim, Hyeon Jin; Kim, Min Suk; Kim, Peter; Kim, Shinhong; Kimura, Naoki; Kind, Oliver; King, Barry; King, Matthew; King, Robert Steven Beaufoy; Kirk, Julie; Kirsch, Guillaume; Kirsch, Lawrence; Kiryunin, Andrey; Kishimoto, Tomoe; Kisielewska, Danuta; Kittelmann, Thomas; Kiver, Andrey; Kiyamura, Hironori; Kladiva, Eduard; Klaiber-Lodewigs, Jonas; Klein, Max; Klein, Uta; Kleinknecht, Konrad; Klemetti, Miika; Klier, Amit; Klimentov, Alexei; Klingenberg, Reiner; Klinkby, Esben; Klioutchnikova, Tatiana; Klok, Peter; Klous, Sander; Kluge, Eike-Erik; Kluge, Thomas; Kluit, Peter; Kluth, Stefan; Knecht, Neil; Kneringer, Emmerich; Knobloch, Juergen; Knoops, Edith; Knue, Andrea; Ko, Byeong Rok; Kobayashi, Tomio; Kobel, Michael; Kocian, Martin; Kocnar, Antonin; Kodys, Peter; Koneke, Karsten; Konig, Adriaan; Koenig, Sebastian; Kopke, Lutz; Koetsveld, Folkert; Koevesarki, Peter; Koffas, Thomas; Koffeman, Els; Kohn, Fabian; Kohout, Zdenek; Kohriki, Takashi; Koi, Tatsumi; Kokott, Thomas; Kolachev, Guennady; Kolanoski, Hermann; Kolesnikov, Vladimir; Koletsou, Iro; Koll, James; Kollar, Daniel; Kollefrath, Michael; Kolya, Scott; Komar, Aston; Komaragiri, Jyothsna Rani; Komori, Yuto; Kondo, Takahiko; Kono, Takanori; Kononov, Anatoly; Konoplich, Rostislav; Konstantinidis, Nikolaos; Kootz, Andreas; Koperny, Stefan; Kopikov, Sergey; Korcyl, Krzysztof; Kordas, Kostantinos; Koreshev, Victor; Korn, Andreas; Korol, Aleksandr; Korolkov, Ilya; Korolkova, Elena; Korotkov, Vladislav; Kortner, Oliver; Kortner, Sandra; Kostyukhin, Vadim; Kotamaki, Miikka Juhani; Kotov, Sergey; Kotov, Vladislav; Kotwal, Ashutosh; Kourkoumelis, Christine; Kouskoura, Vasiliki; Koutsman, Alex; Kowalewski, Robert Victor; Kowalski, Tadeusz; Kozanecki, Witold; Kozhin, Anatoly; Kral, Vlastimil; Kramarenko, Viktor; Kramberger, Gregor; Krasny, Mieczyslaw Witold; Krasznahorkay, Attila; Kraus, James; Kreisel, Arik; Krejci, Frantisek; Kretzschmar, Jan; Krieger, Nina; Krieger, Peter; Kroeninger, Kevin; Kroha, Hubert; Kroll, Joe; Kroseberg, Juergen; Krstic, Jelena; Kruchonak, Uladzimir; Kruger, Hans; Kruker, Tobias; Krumshteyn, Zinovii; Kruth, Andre; Kubota, Takashi; Kuehn, Susanne; Kugel, Andreas; Kuhl, Thorsten; Kuhn, Dietmar; Kukhtin, Victor; Kulchitsky, Yuri; Kuleshov, Sergey; Kummer, Christian; Kuna, Marine; Kundu, Nikhil; Kunkle, Joshua; Kupco, Alexander; Kurashige, Hisaya; Kurata, Masakazu; Kurochkin, Yurii; Kus, Vlastimil; Kuykendall, William; Kuze, Masahiro; Kuzhir, Polina; Kvita, Jiri; Kwee, Regina; La Rosa, Alessandro; La Rotonda, Laura; Labarga, Luis; Labbe, Julien; Lablak, Said; Lacasta, Carlos; Lacava, Francesco; Lacker, Heiko; Lacour, Didier; Lacuesta, Vicente Ramon; Ladygin, Evgueni; Lafaye, Remi; Laforge, Bertrand; Lagouri, Theodota; Lai, Stanley; Laisne, Emmanuel; Lamanna, Massimo; Lampen, Caleb; Lampl, Walter; Lancon, Eric; Landgraf, Ulrich; Landon, Murrough; Landsman, Hagar; Lane, Jenna; Lange, Clemens; Lankford, Andrew; Lanni, Francesco; Lantzsch, Kerstin; Laplace, Sandrine; Lapoire, Cecile; Laporte, Jean-Francois; Lari, Tommaso; Larionov, Anatoly; Larner, Aimee; Lasseur, Christian; Lassnig, Mario; Laurelli, Paolo; Lavorato, Antonia; Lavrijsen, Wim; Laycock, Paul; Lazarev, Alexandre; Le Dortz, Olivier; Le Guirriec, Emmanuel; Le Maner, Christophe; Le Menedeu, Eve; Lebel, Celine; LeCompte, Thomas; Ledroit-Guillon, Fabienne Agnes Marie; Lee, Hurng-Chun; Lee, Jason; Lee, Shih-Chang; Lee, Lawrence; Lefebvre, Michel; Legendre, Marie; Leger, Annie; LeGeyt, Benjamin; Legger, Federica; Leggett, Charles; Lehmacher, Marc; Lehmann Miotto, Giovanna; Lei, Xiaowen; Leite, Marco Aurelio Lisboa; Leitner, Rupert; Lellouch, Daniel; Leltchouk, Mikhail; Lemmer, Boris; Lendermann, Victor; Leney, Katharine; Lenz, Tatiana; Lenzen, Georg; Lenzi, Bruno; Leonhardt, Kathrin; Leontsinis, Stefanos; Leroy, Claude; Lessard, Jean-Raphael; Lesser, Jonas; Lester, Christopher; Leung Fook Cheong, Annabelle; Leveque, Jessica; Levin, Daniel; Levinson, Lorne; Levitski, Mikhail; Lewandowska, Marta; Lewis, Adrian; Lewis, George; Leyko, Agnieszka; Leyton, Michael; Li, Bo; Li, Haifeng; Li, Shu; Li, Xuefei; Liang, Zhihua; Liang, Zhijun; Liberti, Barbara; Lichard, Peter; Lichtnecker, Markus; Lie, Ki; Liebig, Wolfgang; Lifshitz, Ronen; Lilley, Joseph; Limbach, Christian; Limosani, Antonio; Limper, Maaike; Lin, Simon; Linde, Frank; Linnemann, James; Lipeles, Elliot; Lipinsky, Lukas; Lipniacka, Anna; Liss, Tony; Lissauer, David; Lister, Alison; Litke, Alan; Liu, Chuanlei; Liu, Dong; Liu, Hao; Liu, Jianbei; Liu, Minghui; Liu, Shengli; Liu, Yanwen; Livan, Michele; Livermore, Sarah; Lleres, Annick; Llorente Merino, Javier; Lloyd, Stephen; Lobodzinska, Ewelina; Loch, Peter; Lockman, William; Lockwitz, Sarah; Loddenkoetter, Thomas; Loebinger, Fred; Loginov, Andrey; Loh, Chang Wei; Lohse, Thomas; Lohwasser, Kristin; Lokajicek, Milos; Loken, James; Lombardo, Vincenzo Paolo; Long, Robin Eamonn; Lopes, Lourenco; Lopez Mateos, David; Losada, Marta; Loscutoff, Peter; Sterzo, Francesco Lo; Losty, Michael; Lou, Xinchou; Lounis, Abdenour; Loureiro, Karina; Love, Jeremy; Love, Peter; Lowe, Andrew; Lu, Feng; Lubatti, Henry; Luci, Claudio; Lucotte, Arnaud; Ludwig, Andreas; Ludwig, Dorthe; Ludwig, Inga; Ludwig, Jens; Luehring, Frederick; Luijckx, Guy; Lumb, Debra; Luminari, Lamberto; Lund, Esben; Lund-Jensen, Bengt; Lundberg, Bjorn; Lundberg, Johan; Lundquist, Johan; Lungwitz, Matthias; Lupi, Anna; Lutz, Gerhard; Lynn, David; Lys, Jeremy; Lytken, Else; Ma, Hong; Ma, Lian Liang; Macana Goia, Jorge Andres; Maccarrone, Giovanni; Macchiolo, Anna; Macek, Bostjan; Machado Miguens, Joana; Mackeprang, Rasmus; Madaras, Ronald; Mader, Wolfgang; Maenner, Reinhard; Maeno, Tadashi; Mattig, Peter; Mattig, Stefan; Magalhaes Martins, Paulo Jorge; Magnoni, Luca; Magradze, Erekle; Mahalalel, Yair; Mahboubi, Kambiz; Mahout, Gilles; Maiani, Camilla; Maidantchik, Carmen; Maio, Amelia; Majewski, Stephanie; Makida, Yasuhiro; Makovec, Nikola; Mal, Prolay; Malecki, Pawel; Malecki, Piotr; Maleev, Victor; Malek, Fairouz; Mallik, Usha; Malon, David; Maltezos, Stavros; Malyshev, Vladimir; Malyukov, Sergei; Mameghani, Raphael; Mamuzic, Judita; Manabe, Atsushi; Mandelli, Luciano; Mandic, Igor; Mandrysch, Rocco; Maneira, Jose; Mangeard, Pierre-Simon; Manjavidze, Ioseb; Mann, Alexander; Manning, Peter; Manousakis-Katsikakis, Arkadios; Mansoulie, Bruno; Manz, Andreas; Mapelli, Alessandro; Mapelli, Livio; March, Luis; Marchand, Jean-Francois; Marchese, Fabrizio; Marchiori, Giovanni; Marcisovsky, Michal; Marin, Alexandru; Marino, Christopher; Marroquim, Fernando; Marshall, Robin; Marshall, Zach; Martens, Kalen; Marti-Garcia, Salvador; Martin, Andrew; Martin, Brian; Martin, Brian Thomas; Martin, Franck Francois; Martin, Jean-Pierre; Martin, Philippe; Martin, Tim; Martin Dit Latour, Bertrand; Martin--Haugh, Stewart; Martinez, Mario; Martinez Outschoorn, Verena; Martyniuk, Alex; Marx, Marilyn; Marzano, Francesco; Marzin, Antoine; Masetti, Lucia; Mashimo, Tetsuro; Mashinistov, Ruslan; Masik, Jiri; Maslennikov, Alexey; Massa, Ignazio; Massaro, Graziano; Massol, Nicolas; Mastrandrea, Paolo; Mastroberardino, Anna; Masubuchi, Tatsuya; Mathes, Markus; Matricon, Pierre; Matsumoto, Hiroshi; Matsunaga, Hiroyuki; Matsushita, Takashi; Mattravers, Carly; Maugain, Jean-Marie; Maxfield, Stephen; Maximov, Dmitriy; May, Edward; Mayne, Anna; Mazini, Rachid; Mazur, Michael; Mazzanti, Marcello; Mazzoni, Enrico; Mc Kee, Shawn Patrick; McCarn, Allison; McCarthy, Robert; McCarthy, Tom; McCubbin, Norman; McFarlane, Kenneth; Mcfayden, Josh; McGlone, Helen; Mchedlidze, Gvantsa; McLaren, Robert Andrew; Mclaughlan, Tom; McMahon, Steve; McPherson, Robert; Meade, Andrew; Mechnich, Joerg; Mechtel, Markus; Medinnis, Mike; Meera-Lebbai, Razzak; Meguro, Tatsuma; Mehdiyev, Rashid; Mehlhase, Sascha; Mehta, Andrew; Meier, Karlheinz; Meinhardt, Jens; Meirose, Bernhard; Melachrinos, Constantinos; Mellado Garcia, Bruce Rafael; Mendoza Navas, Luis; Meng, Zhaoxia; Mengarelli, Alberto; Menke, Sven; Menot, Claude; Meoni, Evelin; Mercurio, Kevin Michael; Mermod, Philippe; Merola, Leonardo; Meroni, Chiara; Merritt, Frank; Messina, Andrea; Metcalfe, Jessica; Mete, Alaettin Serhan; Meuser, Stefan; Meyer, Carsten; Meyer, Jean-Pierre; Meyer, Jochen; Meyer, Joerg; Meyer, Thomas Christian; Meyer, W.Thomas; Miao, Jiayuan; Michal, Sebastien; Micu, Liliana; Middleton, Robin; Miele, Paola; Migas, Sylwia; Mijovic, Liza; Mikenberg, Giora; Mikestikova, Marcela; Mikuz, Marko; Miller, David; Miller, Robert; Mills, Bill; Mills, Corrinne; Milov, Alexander; Milstead, David; Milstein, Dmitry; Minaenko, Andrey; Minano, Mercedes; Minashvili, Irakli; Mincer, Allen; Mindur, Bartosz; Mineev, Mikhail; Ming, Yao; Mir, Lluisa-Maria; Mirabelli, Giovanni; Miralles Verge, Lluis; Misiejuk, Andrzej; Mitrevski, Jovan; Mitrofanov, Gennady; Mitsou, Vasiliki A.; Mitsui, Shingo; Miyagawa, Paul; Miyazaki, Kazuki; Mjornmark, Jan-Ulf; Moa, Torbjoern; Mockett, Paul; Moed, Shulamit; Moeller, Victoria; Monig, Klaus; Moser, Nicolas; Mohapatra, Soumya; Mohr, Wolfgang; Mohrdieck-Mock, Susanne; Moisseev, Artemy; Moles-Valls, Regina; Molina-Perez, Jorge; Monk, James; Monnier, Emmanuel; Montesano, Simone; Monticelli, Fernando; Monzani, Simone; Moore, Roger; Moorhead, Gareth; Mora Herrera, Clemencia; Moraes, Arthur; Morange, Nicolas; Morel, Julien; Morello, Gianfranco; Moreno, Deywis; Moreno Llácer, María; Morettini, Paolo; Morii, Masahiro; Morin, Jerome; Morita, Youhei; Morley, Anthony Keith; Mornacchi, Giuseppe; Morozov, Sergey; Morris, John; Morvaj, Ljiljana; Moser, Hans-Guenther; Mosidze, Maia; Moss, Josh; Mount, Richard; Mountricha, Eleni; Mouraviev, Sergei; Moyse, Edward; Mudrinic, Mihajlo; Mueller, Felix; Mueller, James; Mueller, Klemens; Muller, Thomas; Muenstermann, Daniel; Muir, Alex; Munwes, Yonathan; Murray, Bill; Mussche, Ido; Musto, Elisa; Myagkov, Alexey; Myska, Miroslav; Nadal, Jordi; Nagai, Koichi; Nagano, Kunihiro; Nagasaka, Yasushi; Nairz, Armin Michael; Nakahama, Yu; Nakamura, Koji; Nakano, Itsuo; Nanava, Gizo; Napier, Austin; Nash, Michael; Nation, Nigel; Nattermann, Till; Naumann, Thomas; Navarro, Gabriela; Neal, Homer; Nebot, Eduardo; Nechaeva, Polina; Negri, Andrea; Negri, Guido; Nektarijevic, Snezana; Nelson, Silke; Nelson, Timothy Knight; Nemecek, Stanislav; Nemethy, Peter; Nepomuceno, Andre Asevedo; Nessi, Marzio; Nesterov, Stanislav; Neubauer, Mark; Neusiedl, Andrea; Neves, Ricardo; Nevski, Pavel; Newman, Paul; Hong, Van Nguyen Thi; Nickerson, Richard; Nicolaidou, Rosy; Nicolas, Ludovic; Nicquevert, Bertrand; Niedercorn, Francois; Nielsen, Jason; Niinikoski, Tapio; Nikiforou, Nikiforos; Nikiforov, Andriy; Nikolaenko, Vladimir; Nikolaev, Kirill; Nikolic-Audit, Irena; Nikolics, Katalin; Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos; Nilsen, Henrik; Nilsson, Paul; Ninomiya, Yoichi; Nisati, Aleandro; Nishiyama, Tomonori; Nisius, Richard; Nodulman, Lawrence; Nomachi, Masaharu; Nomidis, Ioannis; Nordberg, Markus; Nordkvist, Bjoern; Norton, Peter; Novakova, Jana; Nozaki, Mitsuaki; Nozicka, Miroslav; Nozka, Libor; Nugent, Ian Michael; Nuncio-Quiroz, Adriana-Elizabeth; Nunes Hanninger, Guilherme; Nunnemann, Thomas; Nurse, Emily; Nyman, Tommi; O'Brien, Brendan Joseph; O'Neale, Steve; O'Neil, Dugan; O'Shea, Val; Oakham, Gerald; Oberlack, Horst; Ocariz, Jose; Ochi, Atsuhiko; Oda, Susumu; Odaka, Shigeru; Odier, Jerome; Ogren, Harold; Oh, Alexander; Oh, Seog; Ohm, Christian; Ohshima, Takayoshi; Ohshita, Hidetoshi; Ohska, Tokio Kenneth; Ohsugi, Takashi; Okada, Shogo; Okawa, Hideki; Okumura, Yasuyuki; Okuyama, Toyonobu; Olcese, Marco; Olchevski, Alexander; Oliveira, Miguel Alfonso; Oliveira Damazio, Denis; Oliver Garcia, Elena; Olivito, Dominick; Olszewski, Andrzej; Olszowska, Jolanta; Omachi, Chihiro; Onofre, Antonio; Onyisi, Peter; Oram, Christopher; Oreglia, Mark; Oren, Yona; Orestano, Domizia; Orlov, Iliya; Oropeza Barrera, Cristina; Orr, Robert; Osculati, Bianca; Ospanov, Rustem; Osuna, Carlos; Otero y Garzon, Gustavo; Ottersbach, John; Ouchrif, Mohamed; Ould-Saada, Farid; Ouraou, Ahmimed; Ouyang, Qun; Owen, Mark; Owen, Simon; Ozcan, Veysi Erkcan; Ozturk, Nurcan; Pacheco Pages, Andres; Padilla Aranda, Cristobal; Pagan Griso, Simone; Paganis, Efstathios; Paige, Frank; Pajchel, Katarina; Palacino, Gabriel; Paleari, Chiara; Palestini, Sandro; Pallin, Dominique; Palma, Alberto; Palmer, Jody; Pan, Yibin; Panagiotopoulou, Evgenia; Panes, Boris; Panikashvili, Natalia; Panitkin, Sergey; Pantea, Dan; Panuskova, Monika; Paolone, Vittorio; Papadelis, Aras; Papadopoulou, Theodora; Paramonov, Alexander; Park, Woochun; Parker, Andy; Parodi, Fabrizio; Parsons, John; Parzefall, Ulrich; Pasqualucci, Enrico; Passeri, Antonio; Pastore, Fernanda; Pastore, Francesca; Pasztor, Gabriella; Pataraia, Sophio; Patel, Nikhul; Pater, Joleen; Patricelli, Sergio; Pauly, Thilo; Pecsy, Martin; Pedraza Morales, Maria Isabel; Peleganchuk, Sergey; Peng, Haiping; Pengo, Ruggero; Penson, Alexander; Penwell, John; Perantoni, Marcelo; Perez, Kerstin; Cavalcanti, Tiago Perez; Perez Codina, Estel; Perez Garcia-Estan, Maria Teresa; Perez Reale, Valeria; Perini, Laura; Pernegger, Heinz; Perrino, Roberto; Perrodo, Pascal; Persembe, Seda; Peshekhonov, Vladimir; Petersen, Brian; Petersen, Jorgen; Petersen, Troels; Petit, Elisabeth; Petridis, Andreas; Petridou, Chariclia; Petrolo, Emilio; Petrucci, Fabrizio; Petschull, Dennis; Petteni, Michele; Pezoa, Raquel; Phan, Anna; Phillips, Alan; Phillips, Peter William; Piacquadio, Giacinto; Piccaro, Elisa; Piccinini, Maurizio; Pickford, Andrew; Piec, Sebastian Marcin; Piegaia, Ricardo; Pilcher, James; Pilkington, Andrew; Pina, Joao Antonio; Pinamonti, Michele; Pinder, Alex; Pinfold, James; Ping, Jialun; Pinto, Belmiro; Pirotte, Olivier; Pizio, Caterina; Placakyte, Ringaile; Plamondon, Mathieu; Plano, Will; Pleier, Marc-Andre; Pleskach, Anatoly; Poblaguev, Andrei; Poddar, Sahill; Podlyski, Fabrice; Poggioli, Luc; Poghosyan, Tatevik; Pohl, Martin; Polci, Francesco; Polesello, Giacomo; Policicchio, Antonio; Polini, Alessandro; Poll, James; Polychronakos, Venetios; Pomarede, Daniel Marc; Pomeroy, Daniel; Pommes, Kathy; Pontecorvo, Ludovico; Pope, Bernard; Popeneciu, Gabriel Alexandru; Popovic, Dragan; Poppleton, Alan; Bueso, Xavier Portell; Porter, Robert; Posch, Christoph; Pospelov, Guennady; Pospisil, Stanislav; Potrap, Igor; Potter, Christina; Potter, Christopher; Poulard, Gilbert; Poveda, Joaquin; Prabhu, Robindra; Pralavorio, Pascal; Prasad, Srivas; Pravahan, Rishiraj; Prell, Soeren; Pretzl, Klaus Peter; Pribyl, Lukas; Price, Darren; Price, Lawrence; Price, Michael John; Prichard, Paul; Prieur, Damien; Primavera, Margherita; Prokofiev, Kirill; Prokoshin, Fedor; Protopopescu, Serban; Proudfoot, James; Prudent, Xavier; Przysiezniak, Helenka; Psoroulas, Serena; Ptacek, Elizabeth; Pueschel, Elisa; Purdham, John; Purohit, Milind; Puzo, Patrick; Pylypchenko, Yuriy; Qian, Jianming; Qian, Zuxuan; Qin, Zhonghua; Quadt, Arnulf; Quarrie, David; Quayle, William; Quinonez, Fernando; Raas, Marcel; Radescu, Voica; Radics, Balint; Rador, Tonguc; Ragusa, Francesco; Rahal, Ghita; Rahimi, Amir; Rahm, David; Rajagopalan, Srinivasan; Rammensee, Michael; Rammes, Marcus; Ramstedt, Magnus; Randle-Conde, Aidan Sean; Randrianarivony, Koloina; Ratoff, Peter; Rauscher, Felix; Rauter, Emanuel; Raymond, Michel; Read, Alexander Lincoln; Rebuzzi, Daniela; Redelbach, Andreas; Redlinger, George; Reece, Ryan; Reeves, Kendall; Reichold, Armin; Reinherz-Aronis, Erez; Reinsch, Andreas; Reisinger, Ingo; Reljic, Dusan; Rembser, Christoph; Ren, Zhongliang; Renaud, Adrien; Renkel, Peter; Rescigno, Marco; Resconi, Silvia; Resende, Bernardo; Reznicek, Pavel; Rezvani, Reyhaneh; Richards, Alexander; Richter, Robert; Richter-Was, Elzbieta; Ridel, Melissa; Rieke, Stefan; Rijpstra, Manouk; Rijssenbeek, Michael; Rimoldi, Adele; Rinaldi, Lorenzo; Rios, Ryan Randy; Riu, Imma; Rivoltella, Giancesare; Rizatdinova, Flera; Rizvi, Eram; Robertson, Steven; Robichaud-Veronneau, Andree; Robinson, Dave; Robinson, James; Robinson, Mary; Robson, Aidan; Rocha de Lima, Jose Guilherme; Roda, Chiara; Roda Dos Santos, Denis; Rodier, Stephane; Rodriguez, Diego; Roe, Adam; Roe, Shaun; Rohne, Ole; Rojo, Victoria; Rolli, Simona; Romaniouk, Anatoli; Romanov, Victor; Romeo, Gaston; Roos, Lydia; Ros, Eduardo; Rosati, Stefano; Rosbach, Kilian; Rose, Anthony; Rose, Matthew; Rosenbaum, Gabriel; Rosenberg, Eli; Rosendahl, Peter Lundgaard; Rosenthal, Oliver; Rosselet, Laurent; Rossetti, Valerio; Rossi, Elvira; Rossi, Leonardo Paolo; Rossi, Lucio; Rotaru, Marina; Roth, Itamar; Rothberg, Joseph; Rousseau, David; Royon, Christophe; Rozanov, Alexander; Rozen, Yoram; Ruan, Xifeng; Rubinskiy, Igor; Ruckert, Benjamin; Ruckstuhl, Nicole; Rud, Viacheslav; Rudolph, Christian; Rudolph, Gerald; Ruhr, Frederik; Ruggieri, Federico; Ruiz-Martinez, Aranzazu; Rulikowska-Zarebska, Elzbieta; Rumiantsev, Viktor; Rumyantsev, Leonid; Runge, Kay; Runolfsson, Ogmundur; Rurikova, Zuzana; Rusakovich, Nikolai; Rust, Dave; Rutherfoord, John; Ruwiedel, Christoph; Ruzicka, Pavel; Ryabov, Yury; Ryadovikov, Vasily; Ryan, Patrick; Rybar, Martin; Rybkin, Grigori; Ryder, Nick; Rzaeva, Sevda; Saavedra, Aldo; Sadeh, Iftach; Sadrozinski, Hartmut; Sadykov, Renat; Safai Tehrani, Francesco; Sakamoto, Hiroshi; Salamanna, Giuseppe; Salamon, Andrea; Saleem, Muhammad; Salihagic, Denis; Salnikov, Andrei; Salt, Jose; Salvachua Ferrando, Belen; Salvatore, Daniela; Salvatore, Pasquale Fabrizio; Salvucci, Antonio; Salzburger, Andreas; Sampsonidis, Dimitrios; Samset, Bjorn Hallvard; Sanchez, Arturo; Sandaker, Heidi; Sander, Heinz Georg; Sanders, Michiel; Sandhoff, Marisa; Sandoval, Tanya; Sandoval, Carlos; Sandstroem, Rikard; Sandvoss, Stephan; Sankey, Dave; Sansoni, Andrea; Santamarina Rios, Cibran; Santoni, Claudio; Santonico, Rinaldo; Santos, Helena; Saraiva, Joao; Sarangi, Tapas; Sarkisyan-Grinbaum, Edward; Sarri, Francesca; Sartisohn, Georg; Sasaki, Osamu; Sasaki, Takashi; Sasao, Noboru; Satsounkevitch, Igor; Sauvage, Gilles; Sauvan, Emmanuel; Sauvan, Jean-Baptiste; Savard, Pierre; Savinov, Vladimir; Savu, Dan Octavian; Savva, Panagiota; Sawyer, Lee; Saxon, David; Says, Louis-Pierre; Sbarra, Carla; Sbrizzi, Antonio; Scallon, Olivia; Scannicchio, Diana; Schaarschmidt, Jana; Schacht, Peter; Schafer, Uli; Schaepe, Steffen; Schaetzel, Sebastian; Schaffer, Arthur; Schaile, Dorothee; Schamberger, R. Dean; Schamov, Andrey; Scharf, Veit; Schegelsky, Valery; Scheirich, Daniel; Schernau, Michael; Scherzer, Max; Schiavi, Carlo; Schieck, Jochen; Schioppa, Marco; Schlenker, Stefan; Schlereth, James; Schmidt, Evelyn; Schmieden, Kristof; Schmitt, Christian; Schmitt, Sebastian; Schmitz, Martin; Schoning, Andre; Schott, Matthias; Schouten, Doug; Schovancova, Jaroslava; Schram, Malachi; Schroeder, Christian; Schroer, Nicolai; Schuh, Silvia; Schuler, Georges; Schultes, Joachim; Schultz-Coulon, Hans-Christian; Schulz, Holger; Schumacher, Jan; Schumacher, Markus; Schumm, Bruce; Schune, Philippe; Schwanenberger, Christian; Schwartzman, Ariel; Schwemling, Philippe; Schwienhorst, Reinhard; Schwierz, Rainer; Schwindling, Jerome; Schwindt, Thomas; Scott, Bill; Searcy, Jacob; Sedykh, Evgeny; Segura, Ester; Seidel, Sally; Seiden, Abraham; Seifert, Frank; Seixas, Jose; Sekhniaidze, Givi; Seliverstov, Dmitry; Sellden, Bjoern; Sellers, Graham; Seman, Michal; Semprini-Cesari, Nicola; Serfon, Cedric; Serin, Laurent; 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Sloper, John erik; Smakhtin, Vladimir; Smirnov, Sergei; Smirnova, Lidia; Smirnova, Oxana; Smith, Ben Campbell; Smith, Douglas; Smith, Kenway; Smizanska, Maria; Smolek, Karel; Snesarev, Andrei; Snow, Steve; Snow, Joel; Snuverink, Jochem; Snyder, Scott; Soares, Mara; Sobie, Randall; Sodomka, Jaromir; Soffer, Abner; Solans, Carlos; Solar, Michael; Solc, Jaroslav; Soldatov, Evgeny; Soldevila, Urmila; Solfaroli Camillocci, Elena; Solodkov, Alexander; Solovyanov, Oleg; Sondericker, John; Soni, Nitesh; Sopko, Vit; Sopko, Bruno; Sorbi, Massimo; Sosebee, Mark; Soukharev, Andrey; Spagnolo, Stefania; Spano, Francesco; Spighi, Roberto; Spigo, Giancarlo; Spila, Federico; Spiriti, Eleuterio; Spiwoks, Ralf; Spousta, Martin; Spreitzer, Teresa; Spurlock, Barry; St. Denis, Richard Dante; Stahl, Thorsten; Stahlman, Jonathan; Stamen, Rainer; Stanecka, Ewa; Stanek, Robert; Stanescu, Cristian; Stapnes, Steinar; Starchenko, Evgeny; Stark, Jan; Staroba, Pavel; Starovoitov, Pavel; Staude, Arnold; Stavina, Pavel; Stavropoulos, Georgios; Steele, Genevieve; Steinbach, Peter; Steinberg, Peter; Stekl, Ivan; Stelzer, Bernd; Stelzer, Harald Joerg; Stelzer-Chilton, Oliver; Stenzel, Hasko; Stevenson, Kyle; Stewart, Graeme; Stillings, Jan Andre; Stockmanns, Tobias; Stockton, Mark; Stoerig, Kathrin; Stoicea, Gabriel; Stonjek, Stefan; Strachota, Pavel; Stradling, Alden; Straessner, Arno; Strandberg, Jonas; Strandberg, Sara; Strandlie, Are; Strang, Michael; Strauss, Emanuel; Strauss, Michael; Strizenec, Pavol; Strohmer, Raimund; Strom, David; Strong, John; Stroynowski, Ryszard; Strube, Jan; Stugu, Bjarne; Stumer, Iuliu; Stupak, John; Sturm, Philipp; Soh, Dart-yin; Su, Dong; Subramania, Halasya Siva; Succurro, Antonella; Sugaya, Yorihito; Sugimoto, Takuya; Suhr, Chad; Suita, Koichi; Suk, Michal; Sulin, Vladimir; Sultansoy, Saleh; Sumida, Toshi; Sun, Xiaohu; Sundermann, Jan Erik; Suruliz, Kerim; Sushkov, Serge; Susinno, Giancarlo; Sutton, Mark; Suzuki, Yu; Suzuki, Yuta; Svatos, Michal; Sviridov, Yuri; Swedish, Stephen; Sykora, Ivan; Sykora, Tomas; Szeless, Balazs; Sanchez, Javier; Ta, Duc; Tackmann, Kerstin; Taffard, Anyes; Tafirout, Reda; Taga, Adrian; Taiblum, Nimrod; Takahashi, Yuta; Takai, Helio; Takashima, Ryuichi; Takeda, Hiroshi; Takeshita, Tohru; Talby, Mossadek; Talyshev, Alexey; Tamsett, Matthew; Tanaka, Junichi; Tanaka, Reisaburo; Tanaka, Satoshi; Tanaka, Shuji; Tanaka, Yoshito; Tani, Kazutoshi; Tannoury, Nancy; Tappern, Geoffrey; Tapprogge, Stefan; Tardif, Dominique; Tarem, Shlomit; Tarrade, Fabien; Tartarelli, Giuseppe Francesco; Tas, Petr; Tasevsky, Marek; Tassi, Enrico; Tatarkhanov, Mous; Taylor, Christopher; Taylor, Frank; Taylor, Geoffrey; Taylor, Wendy; Teinturier, Marthe; Teixeira Dias Castanheira, Matilde; Teixeira-Dias, Pedro; Temming, Kim Katrin; Ten Kate, Herman; Teng, Ping-Kun; Terada, Susumu; Terashi, Koji; Terron, Juan; Terwort, Mark; Testa, Marianna; Teuscher, Richard; Thadome, Jocelyn; Therhaag, Jan; Theveneaux-Pelzer, Timothee; Thioye, Moustapha; Thoma, Sascha; Thomas, Juergen; Thompson, Emily; Thompson, Paul; Thompson, Peter; Thompson, Stan; Thomson, Evelyn; Thomson, Mark; Thun, Rudolf; Tian, Feng; Tic, Tom\\'{a}\\v{s}; Tikhomirov, Vladimir; Tikhonov, Yury; Timmermans, Charles; Tipton, Paul; Viegas, Florbela De Jes Tique Aires; Tisserant, Sylvain; Tobias, Jurgen; Toczek, Barbara; Todorov, Theodore; Todorova-Nova, Sharka; Toggerson, Brokk; Tojo, Junji; Tokar, Stanislav; Tokunaga, Kaoru; Tokushuku, Katsuo; Tollefson, Kirsten; Tomoto, Makoto; Tompkins, Lauren; Toms, Konstantin; Tong, Guoliang; Tonoyan, Arshak; Topfel, Cyril; Topilin, Nikolai; Torchiani, Ingo; Torrence, Eric; Torres, Heberth; Torro Pastor, Emma; Toth, Jozsef; Touchard, Francois; Tovey, Daniel; Traynor, Daniel; Trefzger, Thomas; Tremblet, Louis; Tricoli, Alesandro; Trigger, Isabel Marian; Trincaz-Duvoid, Sophie; Trinh, Thi Nguyet; Tripiana, Martin; Trischuk, William; Trivedi, Arjun; Trocme, Benjamin; Troncon, Clara; Trottier-McDonald, Michel; Trzupek, Adam; Tsarouchas, Charilaos; Tseng, Jeffrey; Tsiakiris, Menelaos; Tsiareshka, Pavel; Tsionou, Dimitra; Tsipolitis, Georgios; Tsiskaridze, Vakhtang; Tskhadadze, Edisher; Tsukerman, Ilya; Tsulaia, Vakhtang; Tsung, Jieh-Wen; Tsuno, Soshi; Tsybychev, Dmitri; Tua, Alan; Tuggle, Joseph; Turala, Michal; Turecek, Daniel; Turk Cakir, Ilkay; Turlay, Emmanuel; Turra, Ruggero; Tuts, Michael; Tykhonov, Andrii; Tylmad, Maja; Tyndel, Mike; Tyrvainen, Harri; Tzanakos, George; Uchida, Kirika; Ueda, Ikuo; Ueno, Ryuichi; Ugland, Maren; Uhlenbrock, Mathias; Uhrmacher, Michael; Ukegawa, Fumihiko; Unal, Guillaume; Underwood, David; Undrus, Alexander; Unel, Gokhan; Unno, Yoshinobu; Urbaniec, Dustin; Urkovsky, Evgeny; Urrejola, Pedro; Usai, Giulio; Uslenghi, Massimiliano; Vacavant, Laurent; Vacek, Vaclav; Vachon, Brigitte; Vahsen, Sven; Valenta, Jan; Valente, Paolo; Valentinetti, Sara; Valkar, Stefan; Valladolid Gallego, Eva; Vallecorsa, Sofia; Ferrer, Juan Antonio Valls; Van der Graaf, Harry; van der Kraaij, Erik; van der Leeuw, Robin; van der Poel, Egge; van der Ster, Daniel; Van Eijk, Bob; van Eldik, Niels; Van Gemmeren, Peter; van Kesteren, Zdenko; Van Vulpen, Ivo; Vandelli, Wainer; Vandoni, Giovanna; Vaniachine, Alexandre; Vankov, Peter; Vannucci, Francois; Varela Rodriguez, Fernando; Vari, Riccardo; Varnes, Erich; Varouchas, Dimitris; Vartapetian, Armen; Varvell, Kevin; Vassilakopoulos, Vassilios; Vazeille, Francois; Vegni, Guido; Veillet, Jean-Jacques; Vellidis, Constantine; Veloso, Filipe; Veness, Raymond; Veneziano, Stefano; Ventura, Andrea; Ventura, Daniel; Venturi, Manuela; Venturi, Nicola; Vercesi, Valerio; Verducci, Monica; Verkerke, Wouter; Vermeulen, Jos; Vest, Anja; Vetterli, Michel; Vichou, Irene; Vickey, Trevor; Viehhauser, Georg; Viel, Simon; Villa, Mauro; Villaplana Perez, Miguel; Vilucchi, Elisabetta; Vincter, Manuella; Vinek, Elisabeth; Vinogradov, Vladimir; Virchaux, Marc; Virzi, Joseph; Vitells, Ofer; Viti, Michele; Vivarelli, Iacopo; Vives Vaque, Francesc; Vlachos, Sotirios; Vlasak, Michal; Vlasov, Nikolai; Vogel, Adrian; Vokac, Petr; Volpi, Guido; Volpi, Matteo; Volpini, Giovanni; von der Schmitt, Hans; von Loeben, Joerg; von Radziewski, Holger; von Toerne, Eckhard; Vorobel, Vit; Vorobiev, Alexander; Vorwerk, Volker; Vos, Marcel; Voss, Rudiger; Voss, Thorsten Tobias; Vossebeld, Joost; Vranjes, Nenad; Vranjes Milosavljevic, Marija; Vrba, Vaclav; Vreeswijk, Marcel; Anh, Tuan Vu; Vuillermet, Raphael; Vukotic, Ilija; Wagner, Wolfgang; Wagner, Peter; Wahlen, Helmut; Wakabayashi, Jun; Walbersloh, Jorg; Walch, Shannon; Walder, James; Walker, Rodney; Walkowiak, Wolfgang; Wall, Richard; Waller, Peter; Wang, Chiho; Wang, Haichen; Wang, Hulin; Wang, Jike; Wang, Jin; Wang, Joshua C.; Wang, Rui; Wang, Song-Ming; Warburton, Andreas; Ward, Patricia; Warsinsky, Markus; Watkins, Peter; Watson, Alan; Watson, Miriam; Watts, Gordon; Watts, Stephen; Waugh, Anthony; Waugh, Ben; Weber, Jens; Weber, Marc; Weber, Michele; Weber, Pavel; Weidberg, Anthony; Weigell, Philipp; Weingarten, Jens; Weiser, Christian; Wellenstein, Hermann; 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Wrona, Bozydar; Wu, Sau Lan; Wu, Xin; Wu, Yusheng; Wulf, Evan; Wunstorf, Renate; Wynne, Benjamin; Xaplanteris, Leonidas; Xella, Stefania; Xie, Song; Xie, Yigang; Xu, Chao; Xu, Da; Xu, Guofa; Yabsley, Bruce; Yacoob, Sahal; Yamada, Miho; Yamaguchi, Hiroshi; Yamamoto, Akira; Yamamoto, Kyoko; Yamamoto, Shimpei; Yamamura, Taiki; Yamanaka, Takashi; Yamaoka, Jared; Yamazaki, Takayuki; Yamazaki, Yuji; Yan, Zhen; Yang, Haijun; Yang, Un-Ki; Yang, Yi; Yang, Yi; Yang, Zhaoyu; Yanush, Serguei; Yao, Weiming; Yao, Yushu; Yasu, Yoshiji; Ybeles Smit, Gabriel Valentijn; Ye, Jingbo; Ye, Shuwei; Yilmaz, Metin; Yoosoofmiya, Reza; Yorita, Kohei; Yoshida, Riktura; Young, Charles; Youssef, Saul; Yu, Dantong; Yu, Jaehoon; Yu, Jie; Yuan, Li; Yurkewicz, Adam; Zaets, Vassilli; Zaidan, Remi; Zaitsev, Alexander; Zajacova, Zuzana; Zalite, Youris; Zanello, Lucia; Zarzhitsky, Pavel; Zaytsev, Alexander; Zeitnitz, Christian; Zeller, Michael; Zeman, Martin; Zemla, Andrzej; Zendler, Carolin; Zenin, Oleg; Zenis, Tibor; Zenonos, Zenonas; Zenz, Seth; Zerwas, Dirk; Zevi Della Porta, Giovanni; Zhan, Zhichao; Zhang, Dongliang; Zhang, Huaqiao; Zhang, Jinlong; Zhang, Xueyao; Zhang, Zhiqing; Zhao, Long; Zhao, Tianchi; Zhao, Zhengguo; Zhemchugov, Alexey; Zheng, Shuchen; Zhong, Jiahang; Zhou, Bing; Zhou, Ning; Zhou, Yue; Zhu, Cheng Guang; Zhu, Hongbo; Zhu, Junjie; Zhu, Yingchun; Zhuang, Xuai; Zhuravlov, Vadym; Zieminska, Daria; Zimmermann, Robert; Zimmermann, Simone; Zimmermann, Stephanie; Ziolkowski, Michael; Zitoun, Robert; Zivkovic, Lidija; Zmouchko, Viatcheslav; Zobernig, Georg; Zoccoli, Antonio; Zolnierowski, Yves; Zsenei, Andras; zur Nedden, Martin; Zutshi, Vishnu; Zwalinski, Lukasz

    2012-01-03

    The measurement of missing transverse momentum in the ATLAS detector, described in this paper, makes use of the full event reconstruction and a calibration based on reconstructed physics objects. The performance of the missing transverse momentum reconstruction is evaluated using data collected in pp collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV in 2010. Minimum bias events and events with jets of hadrons are used from data samples corresponding to an integrated luminosity of about 0.3 inverse nb and 600 inverse nb, together with events containing a Z boson decaying to two leptons (electrons or muons) or a W boson decaying to a lepton (electron or muon) and a neutrino, from a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of about 36 inverse pb. An estimate of the systematic uncertainty on the missing transverse momentum scale is presented.

  3. Uncertainty and Cognitive Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faisal eMushtaq

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available A growing trend of neuroimaging, behavioural and computational research has investigated the topic of outcome uncertainty in decision-making. Although evidence to date indicates that humans are very effective in learning to adapt to uncertain situations, the nature of the specific cognitive processes involved in the adaptation to uncertainty are still a matter of debate. In this article, we reviewed evidence suggesting that cognitive control processes are at the heart of uncertainty in decision-making contexts. Available evidence suggests that: (1 There is a strong conceptual overlap between the constructs of uncertainty and cognitive control; (2 There is a remarkable overlap between the neural networks associated with uncertainty and the brain networks subserving cognitive control; (3 The perception and estimation of uncertainty might play a key role in monitoring processes and the evaluation of the need for control; (4 Potential interactions between uncertainty and cognitive control might play a significant role in several affective disorders.

  4. The clustering of galaxies in the completed SDSS-III Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey: theoretical systematics and Baryon Acoustic Oscillations in the galaxy correlation function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vargas-Magaña, Mariana; Ho, Shirley; Cuesta, Antonio J.; O'Connell, Ross; Ross, Ashley J.; Eisenstein, Daniel J.; Percival, Will J.; Grieb, Jan Niklas; Sánchez, Ariel G.; Tinker, Jeremy L.; Tojeiro, Rita; Beutler, Florian; Chuang, Chia-Hsun; Kitaura, Francisco-Shu; Prada, Francisco; Rodríguez-Torres, Sergio A.; Rossi, Graziano; Seo, Hee-Jong; Brownstein, Joel R.; Olmstead, Matthew; Thomas, Daniel

    2018-06-01

    We investigate the potential sources of theoretical systematics in the anisotropic Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) distance scale measurements from the clustering of galaxies in configuration space using the final Data Release (DR12) of the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS). We perform a detailed study of the impact on BAO measurements from choices in the methodology such as fiducial cosmology, clustering estimators, random catalogues, fitting templates, and covariance matrices. The theoretical systematic uncertainties in BAO parameters are found to be 0.002 in the isotropic dilation α and 0.003 in the quadrupolar dilation ɛ. The leading source of systematic uncertainty is related to the reconstruction techniques. Theoretical uncertainties are sub-dominant compared with the statistical uncertainties for BOSS survey, accounting 0.2σstat for α and 0.25σstat for ɛ (σα, stat ˜ 0.010 and σɛ, stat ˜ 0.012, respectively). We also present BAO-only distance scale constraints from the anisotropic analysis of the correlation function. Our constraints on the angular diameter distance DA(z) and the Hubble parameter H(z), including both statistical and theoretical systematic uncertainties, are 1.5 per cent and 2.8 per cent at zeff = 0.38, 1.4 per cent and 2.4 per cent at zeff = 0.51, and 1.7 per cent and 2.6 per cent at zeff = 0.61. This paper is part of a set that analyses the final galaxy clustering data set from BOSS. The measurements and likelihoods presented here are cross-checked with other BAO analysis in Alam et al. The systematic error budget concerning the methodology on post-reconstruction BAO analysis presented here is used in Alam et al. to produce the final cosmological constraints from BOSS.

  5. Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change : Letter

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J.W.; Supit, I.

    2013-01-01

    Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain1. Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate2. However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic

  6. Uncertainties in historical pollution data from sedimentary records from an Australian urban floodplain lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lintern, A.; Leahy, P.; Deletic, A.; Heijnis, H.; Zawadzki, A.; Gadd, P.; McCarthy, D.

    2018-05-01

    Sediment cores from aquatic environments can provide valuable information about historical pollution levels and sources. However, there is little understanding of the uncertainties associated with these findings. The aim of this study is to fill this knowledge gap by proposing a framework for quantifying the uncertainties in historical heavy metal pollution records reconstructed from sediment cores. This uncertainty framework consists of six sources of uncertainty: uncertainties in (1) metals analysis methods, (2) spatial variability of sediment core heavy metal profiles, (3) sub-sampling intervals, (4) the sediment chronology, (5) the assumption that metal levels in bed sediments reflect the magnitude of metal inputs into the aquatic system, and (6) post-depositional transformation of metals. We apply this uncertainty framework to an urban floodplain lake in South-East Australia (Willsmere Billabong). We find that for this site, uncertainties in historical dated heavy metal profiles can be up to 176%, largely due to uncertainties in the sediment chronology, and in the assumption that the settled heavy metal mass is equivalent to the heavy metal mass entering the aquatic system. As such, we recommend that future studies reconstructing historical pollution records using sediment cores from aquatic systems undertake an investigation of the uncertainties in the reconstructed pollution record, using the uncertainty framework provided in this study. We envisage that quantifying and understanding the uncertainties associated with the reconstructed pollution records will facilitate the practical application of sediment core heavy metal profiles in environmental management projects.

  7. Haplotype reconstruction error as a classical misclassification problem: introducing sensitivity and specificity as error measures.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Lamina

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Statistically reconstructing haplotypes from single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP genotypes, can lead to falsely classified haplotypes. This can be an issue when interpreting haplotype association results or when selecting subjects with certain haplotypes for subsequent functional studies. It was our aim to quantify haplotype reconstruction error and to provide tools for it. METHODS AND RESULTS: By numerous simulation scenarios, we systematically investigated several error measures, including discrepancy, error rate, and R(2, and introduced the sensitivity and specificity to this context. We exemplified several measures in the KORA study, a large population-based study from Southern Germany. We find that the specificity is slightly reduced only for common haplotypes, while the sensitivity was decreased for some, but not all rare haplotypes. The overall error rate was generally increasing with increasing number of loci, increasing minor allele frequency of SNPs, decreasing correlation between the alleles and increasing ambiguity. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that, with the analytical approach presented here, haplotype-specific error measures can be computed to gain insight into the haplotype uncertainty. This method provides the information, if a specific risk haplotype can be expected to be reconstructed with rather no or high misclassification and thus on the magnitude of expected bias in association estimates. We also illustrate that sensitivity and specificity separate two dimensions of the haplotype reconstruction error, which completely describe the misclassification matrix and thus provide the prerequisite for methods accounting for misclassification.

  8. Resolving uncertainty in chemical speciation determinations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, D. Scott; Adams, Nicholas W. H.; Kramer, James R.

    1999-10-01

    Speciation determinations involve uncertainty in system definition and experimentation. Identification of appropriate metals and ligands from basic chemical principles, analytical window considerations, types of species and checking for consistency in equilibrium calculations are considered in system definition uncertainty. A systematic approach to system definition limits uncertainty in speciation investigations. Experimental uncertainty is discussed with an example of proton interactions with Suwannee River fulvic acid (SRFA). A Monte Carlo approach was used to estimate uncertainty in experimental data, resulting from the propagation of uncertainties in electrode calibration parameters and experimental data points. Monte Carlo simulations revealed large uncertainties present at high (>9-10) and low (monoprotic ligands. Least-squares fit the data with 21 sites, whereas linear programming fit the data equally well with 9 sites. Multiresponse fitting, involving simultaneous fluorescence and pH measurements, improved model discrimination. Deconvolution of the excitation versus emission fluorescence surface for SRFA establishes a minimum of five sites. Diprotic sites are also required for the five fluorescent sites, and one non-fluorescent monoprotic site was added to accommodate the pH data. Consistent with greater complexity, the multiresponse method had broader confidence limits than the uniresponse methods, but corresponded better with the accepted total carboxylic content for SRFA. Overall there was a 40% standard deviation in total carboxylic content for the multiresponse fitting, versus 10% and 1% for least-squares and linear programming, respectively.

  9. Model uncertainty and probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parry, G.W.

    1994-01-01

    This paper discusses the issue of model uncertainty. The use of probability as a measure of an analyst's uncertainty as well as a means of describing random processes has caused some confusion, even though the two uses are representing different types of uncertainty with respect to modeling a system. The importance of maintaining the distinction between the two types is illustrated with a simple example

  10. Uncertainty in artificial intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Kanal, LN

    1986-01-01

    How to deal with uncertainty is a subject of much controversy in Artificial Intelligence. This volume brings together a wide range of perspectives on uncertainty, many of the contributors being the principal proponents in the controversy.Some of the notable issues which emerge from these papers revolve around an interval-based calculus of uncertainty, the Dempster-Shafer Theory, and probability as the best numeric model for uncertainty. There remain strong dissenting opinions not only about probability but even about the utility of any numeric method in this context.

  11. Uncertainties in hydrogen combustion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stamps, D.W.; Wong, C.C.; Nelson, L.S.

    1988-01-01

    Three important areas of hydrogen combustion with uncertainties are identified: high-temperature combustion, flame acceleration and deflagration-to-detonation transition, and aerosol resuspension during hydrogen combustion. The uncertainties associated with high-temperature combustion may affect at least three different accident scenarios: the in-cavity oxidation of combustible gases produced by core-concrete interactions, the direct containment heating hydrogen problem, and the possibility of local detonations. How these uncertainties may affect the sequence of various accident scenarios is discussed and recommendations are made to reduce these uncertainties. 40 references

  12. Uncertainty in hydrological signatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMillan, Hilary; Westerberg, Ida

    2015-04-01

    Information that summarises the hydrological behaviour or flow regime of a catchment is essential for comparing responses of different catchments to understand catchment organisation and similarity, and for many other modelling and water-management applications. Such information types derived as an index value from observed data are known as hydrological signatures, and can include descriptors of high flows (e.g. mean annual flood), low flows (e.g. mean annual low flow, recession shape), the flow variability, flow duration curve, and runoff ratio. Because the hydrological signatures are calculated from observed data such as rainfall and flow records, they are affected by uncertainty in those data. Subjective choices in the method used to calculate the signatures create a further source of uncertainty. Uncertainties in the signatures may affect our ability to compare different locations, to detect changes, or to compare future water resource management scenarios. The aim of this study was to contribute to the hydrological community's awareness and knowledge of data uncertainty in hydrological signatures, including typical sources, magnitude and methods for its assessment. We proposed a generally applicable method to calculate these uncertainties based on Monte Carlo sampling and demonstrated it for a variety of commonly used signatures. The study was made for two data rich catchments, the 50 km2 Mahurangi catchment in New Zealand and the 135 km2 Brue catchment in the UK. For rainfall data the uncertainty sources included point measurement uncertainty, the number of gauges used in calculation of the catchment spatial average, and uncertainties relating to lack of quality control. For flow data the uncertainty sources included uncertainties in stage/discharge measurement and in the approximation of the true stage-discharge relation by a rating curve. The resulting uncertainties were compared across the different signatures and catchments, to quantify uncertainty

  13. Development of a Dynamic Lidar Uncertainty Framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Newman, Jennifer [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Clifton, Andrew [WindForS; Bonin, Timothy [CIRES/NOAA ESRL; Choukulkar, Aditya [CIRES/NOAA ESRL; Brewer, W. Alan [NOAA ESRL; Delgado, Ruben [University of Maryland Baltimore County

    2017-08-07

    As wind turbine sizes increase and wind energy expands to more complex and remote sites, remote-sensing devices such as lidars are expected to play a key role in wind resource assessment and power performance testing. The switch to remote-sensing devices represents a paradigm shift in the way the wind industry typically obtains and interprets measurement data for wind energy. For example, the measurement techniques and sources of uncertainty for a remote-sensing device are vastly different from those associated with a cup anemometer on a meteorological tower. Current IEC standards for quantifying remote sensing device uncertainty for power performance testing consider uncertainty due to mounting, calibration, and classification of the remote sensing device, among other parameters. Values of the uncertainty are typically given as a function of the mean wind speed measured by a reference device and are generally fixed, leading to climatic uncertainty values that apply to the entire measurement campaign. However, real-world experience and a consideration of the fundamentals of the measurement process have shown that lidar performance is highly dependent on atmospheric conditions, such as wind shear, turbulence, and aerosol content. At present, these conditions are not directly incorporated into the estimated uncertainty of a lidar device. In this presentation, we describe the development of a new dynamic lidar uncertainty framework that adapts to current flow conditions and more accurately represents the actual uncertainty inherent in lidar measurements under different conditions. In this new framework, sources of uncertainty are identified for estimation of the line-of-sight wind speed and reconstruction of the three-dimensional wind field. These sources are then related to physical processes caused by the atmosphere and lidar operating conditions. The framework is applied to lidar data from a field measurement site to assess the ability of the framework to predict

  14. PET reconstruction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Sullivan, F.; Pawitan, Y.; Harrison, R.L.; Lewellen, T.K.

    1990-01-01

    In statistical terms, filtered backprojection can be viewed as smoothed Least Squares (LS). In this paper, the authors report on improvement in LS resolution by: incorporating locally adaptive smoothers, imposing positivity and using statistical methods for optimal selection of the resolution parameter. The resulting algorithm has high computational efficiency relative to more elaborate Maximum Likelihood (ML) type techniques (i.e. EM with sieves). Practical aspects of the procedure are discussed in the context of PET and illustrations with computer simulated and real tomograph data are presented. The relative recovery coefficients for a 9mm sphere in a computer simulated hot-spot phantom range from .3 to .6 when the number of counts ranges from 10,000 to 640,000 respectively. The authors will also present results illustrating the relative efficacy of ML and LS reconstruction techniques

  15. Uncertainty in social dilemmas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kwaadsteniet, Erik Willem de

    2007-01-01

    This dissertation focuses on social dilemmas, and more specifically, on environmental uncertainty in these dilemmas. Real-life social dilemma situations are often characterized by uncertainty. For example, fishermen mostly do not know the exact size of the fish population (i.e., resource size

  16. Uncertainty and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Berliner, L. Mark

    2003-01-01

    Anthropogenic, or human-induced, climate change is a critical issue in science and in the affairs of humankind. Though the target of substantial research, the conclusions of climate change studies remain subject to numerous uncertainties. This article presents a very brief review of the basic arguments regarding anthropogenic climate change with particular emphasis on uncertainty.

  17. Deterministic uncertainty analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Worley, B.A.

    1987-01-01

    Uncertainties of computer results are of primary interest in applications such as high-level waste (HLW) repository performance assessment in which experimental validation is not possible or practical. This work presents an alternate deterministic approach for calculating uncertainties that has the potential to significantly reduce the number of computer runs required for conventional statistical analysis. 7 refs., 1 fig

  18. Uncertainty and simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Depres, B.; Dossantos-Uzarralde, P.

    2009-01-01

    More than 150 researchers and engineers from universities and the industrial world met to discuss on the new methodologies developed around assessing uncertainty. About 20 papers were presented and the main topics were: methods to study the propagation of uncertainties, sensitivity analysis, nuclear data covariances or multi-parameter optimisation. This report gathers the contributions of CEA researchers and engineers

  19. Conditional uncertainty principle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gour, Gilad; Grudka, Andrzej; Horodecki, Michał; Kłobus, Waldemar; Łodyga, Justyna; Narasimhachar, Varun

    2018-04-01

    We develop a general operational framework that formalizes the concept of conditional uncertainty in a measure-independent fashion. Our formalism is built upon a mathematical relation which we call conditional majorization. We define conditional majorization and, for the case of classical memory, we provide its thorough characterization in terms of monotones, i.e., functions that preserve the partial order under conditional majorization. We demonstrate the application of this framework by deriving two types of memory-assisted uncertainty relations, (1) a monotone-based conditional uncertainty relation and (2) a universal measure-independent conditional uncertainty relation, both of which set a lower bound on the minimal uncertainty that Bob has about Alice's pair of incompatible measurements, conditioned on arbitrary measurement that Bob makes on his own system. We next compare the obtained relations with their existing entropic counterparts and find that they are at least independent.

  20. Physical Uncertainty Bounds (PUB)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vaughan, Diane Elizabeth [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Preston, Dean L. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-03-19

    This paper introduces and motivates the need for a new methodology for determining upper bounds on the uncertainties in simulations of engineered systems due to limited fidelity in the composite continuum-level physics models needed to simulate the systems. We show that traditional uncertainty quantification methods provide, at best, a lower bound on this uncertainty. We propose to obtain bounds on the simulation uncertainties by first determining bounds on the physical quantities or processes relevant to system performance. By bounding these physics processes, as opposed to carrying out statistical analyses of the parameter sets of specific physics models or simply switching out the available physics models, one can obtain upper bounds on the uncertainties in simulated quantities of interest.

  1. Measurement uncertainty and probability

    CERN Document Server

    Willink, Robin

    2013-01-01

    A measurement result is incomplete without a statement of its 'uncertainty' or 'margin of error'. But what does this statement actually tell us? By examining the practical meaning of probability, this book discusses what is meant by a '95 percent interval of measurement uncertainty', and how such an interval can be calculated. The book argues that the concept of an unknown 'target value' is essential if probability is to be used as a tool for evaluating measurement uncertainty. It uses statistical concepts, such as a conditional confidence interval, to present 'extended' classical methods for evaluating measurement uncertainty. The use of the Monte Carlo principle for the simulation of experiments is described. Useful for researchers and graduate students, the book also discusses other philosophies relating to the evaluation of measurement uncertainty. It employs clear notation and language to avoid the confusion that exists in this controversial field of science.

  2. Development of Evaluation Code for MUF Uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Won, Byung Hee; Han, Bo Young; Shin, Hee Sung; Ahn, Seong-Kyu; Park, Geun-Il; Park, Se Hwan

    2015-01-01

    Material Unaccounted For (MUF) is the material balance evaluated by measured nuclear material in a Material Balance Area (MBA). Assuming perfect measurements and no diversion from a facility, one can expect a zero MUF. However, non-zero MUF is always occurred because of measurement uncertainty even though the facility is under normal operation condition. Furthermore, there are many measurements using different equipment at various Key Measurement Points (KMPs), and the MUF uncertainty is affected by errors of those measurements. Evaluating MUF uncertainty is essentially required to develop safeguards system including nuclear measurement system in pyroprocessing, which is being developed for reducing radioactive waste from spent fuel in Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI). The evaluation code for analyzing MUF uncertainty has been developed and it was verified using sample problem from the IAEA reference. MUF uncertainty can be simply and quickly calculated by using this evaluation code which is made based on graphical user interface for user friendly. It is also expected that the code will make the sensitivity analysis on the MUF uncertainty for the various safeguards systems easy and more systematic. It is suitable for users who want to evaluate the conventional safeguards system as well as to develop a new system for developing facilities

  3. Mitigating Provider Uncertainty in Service Provision Contracts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Chris; van Moorsel, Aad

    Uncertainty is an inherent property of open, distributed and multiparty systems. The viability of the mutually beneficial relationships which motivate these systems relies on rational decision-making by each constituent party under uncertainty. Service provision in distributed systems is one such relationship. Uncertainty is experienced by the service provider in his ability to deliver a service with selected quality level guarantees due to inherent non-determinism, such as load fluctuations and hardware failures. Statistical estimators utilized to model this non-determinism introduce additional uncertainty through sampling error. Inability of the provider to accurately model and analyze uncertainty in the quality level guarantees can result in the formation of sub-optimal service provision contracts. Emblematic consequences include loss of revenue, inefficient resource utilization and erosion of reputation and consumer trust. We propose a utility model for contract-based service provision to provide a systematic approach to optimal service provision contract formation under uncertainty. Performance prediction methods to enable the derivation of statistical estimators for quality level are introduced, with analysis of their resultant accuracy and cost.

  4. Development of Evaluation Code for MUF Uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Won, Byung Hee; Han, Bo Young; Shin, Hee Sung; Ahn, Seong-Kyu; Park, Geun-Il; Park, Se Hwan [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    Material Unaccounted For (MUF) is the material balance evaluated by measured nuclear material in a Material Balance Area (MBA). Assuming perfect measurements and no diversion from a facility, one can expect a zero MUF. However, non-zero MUF is always occurred because of measurement uncertainty even though the facility is under normal operation condition. Furthermore, there are many measurements using different equipment at various Key Measurement Points (KMPs), and the MUF uncertainty is affected by errors of those measurements. Evaluating MUF uncertainty is essentially required to develop safeguards system including nuclear measurement system in pyroprocessing, which is being developed for reducing radioactive waste from spent fuel in Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI). The evaluation code for analyzing MUF uncertainty has been developed and it was verified using sample problem from the IAEA reference. MUF uncertainty can be simply and quickly calculated by using this evaluation code which is made based on graphical user interface for user friendly. It is also expected that the code will make the sensitivity analysis on the MUF uncertainty for the various safeguards systems easy and more systematic. It is suitable for users who want to evaluate the conventional safeguards system as well as to develop a new system for developing facilities.

  5. Not Normal: the uncertainties of scientific measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, David C.

    2017-01-01

    Judging the significance and reproducibility of quantitative research requires a good understanding of relevant uncertainties, but it is often unclear how well these have been evaluated and what they imply. Reported scientific uncertainties were studied by analysing 41 000 measurements of 3200 quantities from medicine, nuclear and particle physics, and interlaboratory comparisons ranging from chemistry to toxicology. Outliers are common, with 5σ disagreements up to five orders of magnitude more frequent than naively expected. Uncertainty-normalized differences between multiple measurements of the same quantity are consistent with heavy-tailed Student's t-distributions that are often almost Cauchy, far from a Gaussian Normal bell curve. Medical research uncertainties are generally as well evaluated as those in physics, but physics uncertainty improves more rapidly, making feasible simple significance criteria such as the 5σ discovery convention in particle physics. Contributions to measurement uncertainty from mistakes and unknown problems are not completely unpredictable. Such errors appear to have power-law distributions consistent with how designed complex systems fail, and how unknown systematic errors are constrained by researchers. This better understanding may help improve analysis and meta-analysis of data, and help scientists and the public have more realistic expectations of what scientific results imply.

  6. Breast Reconstruction After Mastectomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Cancer Prevention Genetics of Breast & Gynecologic Cancers Breast Cancer Screening Research Breast Reconstruction After Mastectomy On This Page What is breast reconstruction? How do surgeons use implants to reconstruct a woman’s breast? How do surgeons ...

  7. Breast reconstruction - implants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breast implants surgery; Mastectomy - breast reconstruction with implants; Breast cancer - breast reconstruction with implants ... harder to find a tumor if your breast cancer comes back. Getting breast implants does not take as long as breast reconstruction ...

  8. Measurement of the Time-Dependent CP Asymmetry of Partially Reconstructed B0 to D*+D*- Decays

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lees, J. P.

    2012-08-13

    We present a new measurement of the time-dependent CP asymmetry of B{sup 0} {yields}D*{sup +}D*{sup -} decays using (471 {+-} 5) million B{bar B} pairs collected with the BABAR detector at the PEP-II B Factory at the SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory. Using the technique of partial reconstruction, we measure the time-dependent CP asymmetry parameters S = -0.34 {+-} 0.12 {+-} 0.05 and C = +0:15 {+-} 0.09 {+-} 0.04. Using the value for the CP-odd fraction R{perpendicular} = 0.158 {+-} 0.028 {+-} 0.006, previously measured by BABAR with fully reconstructed B{sup 0} {yields} D{sup *+}D{sup *-} events, we extract the CP-even components S{sub +} = -0.49 {+-} 0.18 {+-} 0.07 {+-} 0.04 and C{sub +} = +0.15 {+-} 0.09 {+-} 0.04. In each case, the first uncertainty is statistical and the second is systematic; the third uncertainty on S{sub +} is the contribution from the uncertainty on R{perpendicular}. The measured value of the CP-even component S{sub +} is consistent with the value of sin 2{beta} measured in b {yields} (c{bar c})s transitions, and with the Standard Model expectation of small penguin contributions.

  9. A New Framework for Quantifying Lidar Uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Newman, Jennifer, F.; Clifton, Andrew; Bonin, Timothy A.; Churchfield, Matthew J.

    2017-03-24

    As wind turbine sizes increase and wind energy expands to more complex and remote sites, remote sensing devices such as lidars are expected to play a key role in wind resource assessment and power performance testing. The switch to remote sensing devices represents a paradigm shift in the way the wind industry typically obtains and interprets measurement data for wind energy. For example, the measurement techniques and sources of uncertainty for a remote sensing device are vastly different from those associated with a cup anemometer on a meteorological tower. Current IEC standards discuss uncertainty due to mounting, calibration, and classification of the remote sensing device, among other parameters. Values of the uncertainty are typically given as a function of the mean wind speed measured by a reference device. However, real-world experience has shown that lidar performance is highly dependent on atmospheric conditions, such as wind shear, turbulence, and aerosol content. At present, these conditions are not directly incorporated into the estimated uncertainty of a lidar device. In this presentation, we propose the development of a new lidar uncertainty framework that adapts to current flow conditions and more accurately represents the actual uncertainty inherent in lidar measurements under different conditions. In this new framework, sources of uncertainty are identified for estimation of the line-of-sight wind speed and reconstruction of the three-dimensional wind field. These sources are then related to physical processes caused by the atmosphere and lidar operating conditions. The framework is applied to lidar data from an operational wind farm to assess the ability of the framework to predict errors in lidar-measured wind speed.

  10. Verification of uncertainty budgets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heydorn, Kaj; Madsen, B.S.

    2005-01-01

    , and therefore it is essential that the applicability of the overall uncertainty budget to actual measurement results be verified on the basis of current experimental data. This should be carried out by replicate analysis of samples taken in accordance with the definition of the measurand, but representing...... the full range of matrices and concentrations for which the budget is assumed to be valid. In this way the assumptions made in the uncertainty budget can be experimentally verified, both as regards sources of variability that are assumed negligible, and dominant uncertainty components. Agreement between...

  11. Characterizing spatial uncertainty when integrating social data in conservation planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lechner, A M; Raymond, C M; Adams, V M; Polyakov, M; Gordon, A; Rhodes, J R; Mills, M; Stein, A; Ives, C D; Lefroy, E C

    2014-12-01

    Recent conservation planning studies have presented approaches for integrating spatially referenced social (SRS) data with a view to improving the feasibility of conservation action. We reviewed the growing conservation literature on SRS data, focusing on elicited or stated preferences derived through social survey methods such as choice experiments and public participation geographic information systems. Elicited SRS data includes the spatial distribution of willingness to sell, willingness to pay, willingness to act, and assessments of social and cultural values. We developed a typology for assessing elicited SRS data uncertainty which describes how social survey uncertainty propagates when projected spatially and the importance of accounting for spatial uncertainty such as scale effects and data quality. These uncertainties will propagate when elicited SRS data is integrated with biophysical data for conservation planning and may have important consequences for assessing the feasibility of conservation actions. To explore this issue further, we conducted a systematic review of the elicited SRS data literature. We found that social survey uncertainty was commonly tested for, but that these uncertainties were ignored when projected spatially. Based on these results we developed a framework which will help researchers and practitioners estimate social survey uncertainty and use these quantitative estimates to systematically address uncertainty within an analysis. This is important when using SRS data in conservation applications because decisions need to be made irrespective of data quality and well characterized uncertainty can be incorporated into decision theoretic approaches. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

  12. Awakening the BALROG: BAyesian Location Reconstruction Of GRBs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burgess, J. Michael; Yu, Hoi-Fung; Greiner, Jochen; Mortlock, Daniel J.

    2018-05-01

    The accurate spatial location of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) is crucial for both accurately characterizing their spectra and follow-up observations by other instruments. The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM) has the largest field of view for detecting GRBs as it views the entire unocculted sky, but as a non-imaging instrument it relies on the relative count rates observed in each of its 14 detectors to localize transients. Improving its ability to accurately locate GRBs and other transients is vital to the paradigm of multimessenger astronomy, including the electromagnetic follow-up of gravitational wave signals. Here we present the BAyesian Location Reconstruction Of GRBs (BALROG) method for localizing and characterizing GBM transients. Our approach eliminates the systematics of previous approaches by simultaneously fitting for the location and spectrum of a source. It also correctly incorporates the uncertainties in the location of a transient into the spectral parameters and produces reliable positional uncertainties for both well-localized sources and those for which the GBM data cannot effectively constrain the position. While computationally expensive, BALROG can be implemented to enable quick follow-up of all GBM transient signals. Also, we identify possible response problems that require attention and caution when using standard, public GBM detector response matrices. Finally, we examine the effects of including the uncertainty in location on the spectral parameters of GRB 080916C. We find that spectral parameters change and no extra components are required when these effects are included in contrast to when we use a fixed location. This finding has the potential to alter both the GRB spectral catalogues and the reported spectral composition of some well-known GRBs.

  13. Assignment of uncertainties to scientific data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Froehner, F.H.

    1994-01-01

    Long-standing problems of uncertainty assignment to scientific data came into a sharp focus in recent years when uncertainty information ('covariance files') had to be added to application-oriented large libraries of evaluated nuclear data such as ENDF and JEF. Question arouse about the best way to express uncertainties, the meaning of statistical and systematic errors, the origin of correlation and construction of covariance matrices, the combination of uncertain data from different sources, the general usefulness of results that are strictly valid only for Gaussian or only for linear statistical models, etc. Conventional statistical theory is often unable to give unambiguous answers, and tends to fail when statistics is bad so that prior information becomes crucial. Modern probability theory, on the other hand, incorporating decision information becomes group-theoretic results, is shown to provide straight and unique answers to such questions, and to deal easily with prior information and small samples. (author). 10 refs

  14. Prosthetic breast reconstruction: indications and update

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinn, Tam T.; Miller, George S.; Rostek, Marie; Cabalag, Miguel S.; Rozen, Warren M.

    2016-01-01

    Background Despite 82% of patients reporting psychosocial improvement following breast reconstruction, only 33% patients choose to undergo surgery. Implant reconstruction outnumbers autologous reconstruction in many centres. Methods A systematic review of the literature was undertaken. Inclusion required: (I) Meta-analyses or review articles; (II) adult patients aged 18 years or over undergoing alloplastic breast reconstruction; (III) studies including outcome measures; (IV) case series with more than 10 patients; (V) English language; and (VI) publication after 1st January, 2000. Results After full text review, analysis and data extraction was conducted for a total of 63 articles. Definitive reconstruction with an implant can be immediate or delayed. Older patients have similar or even lower complication rates to younger patients. Complications include capsular contracture, hematoma and infection. Obesity, smoking, large breasts, diabetes and higher grade tumors are associated with increased risk of wound problems and reconstructive failure. Silicone implant patients have higher capsular contracture rates but have higher physical and psychosocial function. There were no associations made between silicone implants and cancer or systemic disease. There were no differences in outcomes or complications between round and shaped implants. Textured implants have a lower risk of capsular contracture than smooth implants. Smooth implants are more likely to be displaced as well as having higher rates of infection. Immediate breast reconstruction (IBR) gives the best aesthetic outcome if radiotherapy is not required but has a higher rate of capsular contracture and implant failure. Delayed-immediate reconstruction patients can achieve similar aesthetic results to IBR whilst preserving the breast skin if radiotherapy is required. Delayed breast reconstruction (DBR) patients have fewer complications than IBR patients. Conclusions Implant reconstruction is a safe and popular

  15. The management of uncertainties in radiological data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Funtowicz, S.O.

    1989-01-01

    A prototype framework for representing uncertainties in radiological data is introduced. Through this framework, inherent variability in the quality of radiological data can be managed and communicated efficiently, systematically and consistently. Codings derived from the framework have applicability to radiological data, irrespective of the source from which the data are obtained. and irrespective of the context in which they may be used. The coding, in effect, can itself become part of a radiological base. (author)

  16. Evaluating prediction uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McKay, M.D.

    1995-03-01

    The probability distribution of a model prediction is presented as a proper basis for evaluating the uncertainty in a model prediction that arises from uncertainty in input values. Determination of important model inputs and subsets of inputs is made through comparison of the prediction distribution with conditional prediction probability distributions. Replicated Latin hypercube sampling and variance ratios are used in estimation of the distributions and in construction of importance indicators. The assumption of a linear relation between model output and inputs is not necessary for the indicators to be effective. A sequential methodology which includes an independent validation step is applied in two analysis applications to select subsets of input variables which are the dominant causes of uncertainty in the model predictions. Comparison with results from methods which assume linearity shows how those methods may fail. Finally, suggestions for treating structural uncertainty for submodels are presented

  17. Uncertainty in oil projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Limperopoulos, G.J.

    1995-01-01

    This report presents an oil project valuation under uncertainty by means of two well-known financial techniques: The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and The Black-Scholes Option Pricing Formula. CAPM gives a linear positive relationship between expected rate of return and risk but does not take into consideration the aspect of flexibility which is crucial for an irreversible investment as an oil price is. Introduction of investment decision flexibility by using real options can increase the oil project value substantially. Some simple tests for the importance of uncertainty in stock market for oil investments are performed. Uncertainty in stock returns is correlated with aggregate product market uncertainty according to Pindyck (1991). The results of the tests are not satisfactory due to the short data series but introducing two other explanatory variables the interest rate and Gross Domestic Product make the situation better. 36 refs., 18 figs., 6 tabs

  18. Uncertainties and climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Gier, A.M.; Opschoor, J.B.; Van de Donk, W.B.H.J.; Hooimeijer, P.; Jepma, J.; Lelieveld, J.; Oerlemans, J.; Petersen, A.

    2008-01-01

    Which processes in the climate system are misunderstood? How are scientists dealing with uncertainty about climate change? What will be done with the conclusions of the recently published synthesis report of the IPCC? These and other questions were answered during the meeting 'Uncertainties and climate change' that was held on Monday 26 November 2007 at the KNAW in Amsterdam. This report is a compilation of all the presentations and provides some conclusions resulting from the discussions during this meeting. [mk] [nl

  19. Mechanics and uncertainty

    CERN Document Server

    Lemaire, Maurice

    2014-01-01

    Science is a quest for certainty, but lack of certainty is the driving force behind all of its endeavors. This book, specifically, examines the uncertainty of technological and industrial science. Uncertainty and Mechanics studies the concepts of mechanical design in an uncertain setting and explains engineering techniques for inventing cost-effective products. Though it references practical applications, this is a book about ideas and potential advances in mechanical science.

  20. Uncertainty: lotteries and risk

    OpenAIRE

    Ávalos, Eloy

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we develop the theory of uncertainty in a context where the risks assumed by the individual are measurable and manageable. We primarily use the definition of lottery to formulate the axioms of the individual's preferences, and its representation through the utility function von Neumann - Morgenstern. We study the expected utility theorem and its properties, the paradoxes of choice under uncertainty and finally the measures of risk aversion with monetary lotteries.

  1. Uncertainty calculations made easier

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hogenbirk, A.

    1994-07-01

    The results are presented of a neutron cross section sensitivity/uncertainty analysis performed in a complicated 2D model of the NET shielding blanket design inside the ITER torus design, surrounded by the cryostat/biological shield as planned for ITER. The calculations were performed with a code system developed at ECN Petten, with which sensitivity/uncertainty calculations become relatively simple. In order to check the deterministic neutron transport calculations (performed with DORT), calculations were also performed with the Monte Carlo code MCNP. Care was taken to model the 2.0 cm wide gaps between two blanket segments, as the neutron flux behind the vacuum vessel is largely determined by neutrons streaming through these gaps. The resulting neutron flux spectra are in excellent agreement up to the end of the cryostat. It is noted, that at this position the attenuation of the neutron flux is about 1 l orders of magnitude. The uncertainty in the energy integrated flux at the beginning of the vacuum vessel and at the beginning of the cryostat was determined in the calculations. The uncertainty appears to be strongly dependent on the exact geometry: if the gaps are filled with stainless steel, the neutron spectrum changes strongly, which results in an uncertainty of 70% in the energy integrated flux at the beginning of the cryostat in the no-gap-geometry, compared to an uncertainty of only 5% in the gap-geometry. Therefore, it is essential to take into account the exact geometry in sensitivity/uncertainty calculations. Furthermore, this study shows that an improvement of the covariance data is urgently needed in order to obtain reliable estimates of the uncertainties in response parameters in neutron transport calculations. (orig./GL)

  2. A Taxonomic Reduced-Space Pollen Model for Paleoclimate Reconstruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahl, E. R.; Schoelzel, C.

    2010-12-01

    for T as a function of α, β, and E(r|T): T = {ln[E(r|T)/{1-E(r|T)}]-α}/β. To enable use in paleoreconstruction, the observed r values from fossil pollen data are, by assumption, treated as unbiased estimators of the true r value at each time sampled, which can be substituted for E(r|T). Uncertainty in this reconstruction is systematically evaluated in two parts: 1) the observed r values and their corresponding n values are input as parameters into the binomial distribution, Monte Carlo random pollen count draws are made, and a new ratio value is determined for each iteration; and 2) in the "traditional" GLM the estimated SEs for α and β are used with the α and β EV estimates to yield Monte Carlo random draws for each binomial draw (assuming α and β are Gaussian), in the Bayesian GLM random draws for α and β are taken directly from their estimated posterior distribution. Both methods yield nearly identical reconstructions from varved lakes in Wisconsin where the model has been tested; slightly narrower uncertainty ranges are produced by the Bayesian model. The Little Ice Age is readily identified. Pine:Oak and Fir:Oak versions of the model used in S. California show differences from MAT-based reconstructions.

  3. On the relationship between aerosol model uncertainty and radiative forcing uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Lindsay A; Reddington, Carly L; Carslaw, Kenneth S

    2016-05-24

    The largest uncertainty in the historical radiative forcing of climate is caused by the interaction of aerosols with clouds. Historical forcing is not a directly measurable quantity, so reliable assessments depend on the development of global models of aerosols and clouds that are well constrained by observations. However, there has been no systematic assessment of how reduction in the uncertainty of global aerosol models will feed through to the uncertainty in the predicted forcing. We use a global model perturbed parameter ensemble to show that tight observational constraint of aerosol concentrations in the model has a relatively small effect on the aerosol-related uncertainty in the calculated forcing between preindustrial and present-day periods. One factor is the low sensitivity of present-day aerosol to natural emissions that determine the preindustrial aerosol state. However, the major cause of the weak constraint is that the full uncertainty space of the model generates a large number of model variants that are equally acceptable compared to present-day aerosol observations. The narrow range of aerosol concentrations in the observationally constrained model gives the impression of low aerosol model uncertainty. However, these multiple "equifinal" models predict a wide range of forcings. To make progress, we need to develop a much deeper understanding of model uncertainty and ways to use observations to constrain it. Equifinality in the aerosol model means that tuning of a small number of model processes to achieve model-observation agreement could give a misleading impression of model robustness.

  4. Dilepton reconstruction in Au+Au collisions at 1.23 AGeV with HADES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sellheim, Patrick [Goethe-Universitaet Frankfurt (Germany); Collaboration: HADES-Collaboration

    2016-07-01

    In continuation of a systematic investigation of the emissivity of strongly interacting matter, HADES has recently measured the di-electron emission in Au+Au collisions at 1.23 AGeV beam energy. Due to the high track density reached for this collision system, different reconstruction strategies have been pursued to achieve optimal reconstruction efficiencies and purities. Electron (positron) candidates have been identified by means of an multi-variate analysis, where the neural network has been trained alternatively based on clean signal and background tracks from data and by simulated tracks. Moreover, the electron track candidates have been matched to rings using ring parameters of found rings or, alternatively, track candidates identified by time-of-flight only have been matched to ring signatures without running the ring finder before. This contribution presents the results of these analysis procedures and will discuss systematic uncertainties obtained. The statistics is sufficient to investigate double-differential distributions, like centrality dependence covering 45% most central events or transverse momentum distributions for different regions in invariant mass. Special emphasis will be given to the extraction of the radiation from the dense phase of the collision.

  5. Uncertainty Analysis of the NASA Glenn 8x6 Supersonic Wind Tunnel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens, Julia; Hubbard, Erin; Walter, Joel; McElroy, Tyler

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents methods and results of a detailed measurement uncertainty analysis that was performed for the 8- by 6-foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel located at the NASA Glenn Research Center. The statistical methods and engineering judgments used to estimate elemental uncertainties are described. The Monte Carlo method of propagating uncertainty was selected to determine the uncertainty of calculated variables of interest. A detailed description of the Monte Carlo method as applied for this analysis is provided. Detailed uncertainty results for the uncertainty in average free stream Mach number as well as other variables of interest are provided. All results are presented as random (variation in observed values about a true value), systematic (potential offset between observed and true value), and total (random and systematic combined) uncertainty. The largest sources contributing to uncertainty are determined and potential improvement opportunities for the facility are investigated.

  6. Adaptive algebraic reconstruction technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu Wenkai; Yin Fangfang

    2004-01-01

    Algebraic reconstruction techniques (ART) are iterative procedures for reconstructing objects from their projections. It is proven that ART can be computationally efficient by carefully arranging the order in which the collected data are accessed during the reconstruction procedure and adaptively adjusting the relaxation parameters. In this paper, an adaptive algebraic reconstruction technique (AART), which adopts the same projection access scheme in multilevel scheme algebraic reconstruction technique (MLS-ART), is proposed. By introducing adaptive adjustment of the relaxation parameters during the reconstruction procedure, one-iteration AART can produce reconstructions with better quality, in comparison with one-iteration MLS-ART. Furthermore, AART outperforms MLS-ART with improved computational efficiency

  7. Electrons for Neutrinos: Using Electron Scattering to Develop New Energy Reconstruction for Future Deuterium-Based Neutrino Detectors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Adrian; Schmookler, Barak; Papadopoulou, Afroditi; Schmidt, Axel; Hen, Or; Khachatryan, Mariana; Weinstein, Lawrence

    2017-09-01

    Using wide phase-space electron scattering data, we study a novel technique for neutrino energy reconstruction for future neutrino oscillation experiments. Accelerator-based neutrino oscillation experiments require detailed understanding of neutrino-nucleus interactions, which are complicated by the underlying nuclear physics that governs the process. One area of concern is that neutrino energy must be reconstructed event-by-event from the final-state kinematics. In charged-current quasielastic scattering, Fermi motion of nucleons prevents exact energy reconstruction. However, in scattering from deuterium, the momentum of the electron and proton constrain the neutrino energy exactly, offering a new avenue for reducing systematic uncertainties. To test this approach, we analyzed d (e ,e' p) data taken with the CLAS detector at Jefferson Lab Hall B and made kinematic selection cuts to obtain quasielastic events. We estimated the remaining inelastic background by using d (e ,e' pπ-) events to produce a simulated dataset of events with an undetected π-. These results demonstrate the feasibility of energy reconstruction in a hypothetical future deuterium-based neutrino detector. Supported by the Paul E. Gray UROP Fund, MIT.

  8. Measurement uncertainties in science and technology

    CERN Document Server

    Grabe, Michael

    2014-01-01

    This book recasts the classical Gaussian error calculus from scratch, the inducements concerning both random and unknown systematic errors. The idea of this book is to create a formalism being fit to localize the true values of physical quantities considered – true with respect to the set of predefined physical units. Remarkably enough, the prevailingly practiced forms of error calculus do not feature this property which however proves in every respect, to be physically indispensable. The amended formalism, termed Generalized Gaussian Error Calculus by the author, treats unknown systematic errors as biases and brings random errors to bear via enhanced confidence intervals as laid down by students. The significantly extended second edition thoroughly restructures and systematizes the text as a whole and illustrates the formalism by numerous numerical examples. They demonstrate the basic principles of how to understand uncertainties to localize the true values of measured values - a perspective decisive in vi...

  9. Dealing with exploration uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Capen, E.

    1992-01-01

    Exploration for oil and gas should fulfill the most adventurous in their quest for excitement and surprise. This paper tries to cover that tall order. The authors will touch on the magnitude of the uncertainty (which is far greater than in most other businesses), the effects of not knowing target sizes very well, how to build uncertainty into analyses naturally, how to tie reserves and chance estimates to economics, and how to look at the portfolio effect of an exploration program. With no apologies, the authors will be using a different language for some readers - the language of uncertainty, which means probability and statistics. These tools allow one to combine largely subjective exploration information with the more analytical data from the engineering and economic side

  10. Uncertainty Analysis of Seebeck Coefficient and Electrical Resistivity Characterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackey, Jon; Sehirlioglu, Alp; Dynys, Fred

    2014-01-01

    In order to provide a complete description of a materials thermoelectric power factor, in addition to the measured nominal value, an uncertainty interval is required. The uncertainty may contain sources of measurement error including systematic bias error and precision error of a statistical nature. The work focuses specifically on the popular ZEM-3 (Ulvac Technologies) measurement system, but the methods apply to any measurement system. The analysis accounts for sources of systematic error including sample preparation tolerance, measurement probe placement, thermocouple cold-finger effect, and measurement parameters; in addition to including uncertainty of a statistical nature. Complete uncertainty analysis of a measurement system allows for more reliable comparison of measurement data between laboratories.

  11. Estimating uncertainty of inference for validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Booker, Jane M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Langenbrunner, James R [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hemez, Francois M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Ross, Timothy J [UNM

    2010-09-30

    We present a validation process based upon the concept that validation is an inference-making activity. This has always been true, but the association has not been as important before as it is now. Previously, theory had been confirmed by more data, and predictions were possible based on data. The process today is to infer from theory to code and from code to prediction, making the role of prediction somewhat automatic, and a machine function. Validation is defined as determining the degree to which a model and code is an accurate representation of experimental test data. Imbedded in validation is the intention to use the computer code to predict. To predict is to accept the conclusion that an observable final state will manifest; therefore, prediction is an inference whose goodness relies on the validity of the code. Quantifying the uncertainty of a prediction amounts to quantifying the uncertainty of validation, and this involves the characterization of uncertainties inherent in theory/models/codes and the corresponding data. An introduction to inference making and its associated uncertainty is provided as a foundation for the validation problem. A mathematical construction for estimating the uncertainty in the validation inference is then presented, including a possibility distribution constructed to represent the inference uncertainty for validation under uncertainty. The estimation of inference uncertainty for validation is illustrated using data and calculations from Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF). The ICF measurements of neutron yield and ion temperature were obtained for direct-drive inertial fusion capsules at the Omega laser facility. The glass capsules, containing the fusion gas, were systematically selected with the intent of establishing a reproducible baseline of high-yield 10{sup 13}-10{sup 14} neutron output. The deuterium-tritium ratio in these experiments was varied to study its influence upon yield. This paper on validation inference is the

  12. Reconstruction of a ring applicator using CT imaging: impact of the reconstruction method and applicator orientation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hellebust, Taran Paulsen; Tanderup, Kari; Bergstrand, Eva Stabell; Knutsen, Bjoern Helge; Roeislien, Jo; Olsen, Dag Rune

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to investigate whether the method of applicator reconstruction and/or the applicator orientation influence the dose calculation to points around the applicator for brachytherapy of cervical cancer with CT-based treatment planning. A phantom, containing a fixed ring applicator set and six lead pellets representing dose points, was used. The phantom was CT scanned with the ring applicator at four different angles related to the image plane. In each scan the applicator was reconstructed by three methods: (1) direct reconstruction in each image (DR) (2) reconstruction in multiplanar reconstructed images (MPR) and (3) library plans, using pre-defined applicator geometry (LIB). The doses to the lead pellets were calculated. The relative standard deviation (SD) for all reconstruction methods was less than 3.7% in the dose points. The relative SD for the LIB method was significantly lower (p < 0.05) than for the DR and MPR methods for all but two points. All applicator orientations had similar dose calculation reproducibility. Using library plans for applicator reconstruction gives the most reproducible dose calculation. However, with restrictive guidelines for applicator reconstruction the uncertainties for all methods are low compared to other factors influencing the accuracy of brachytherapy

  13. Uncertainty in artificial intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Levitt, TS; Lemmer, JF; Shachter, RD

    1990-01-01

    Clearly illustrated in this volume is the current relationship between Uncertainty and AI.It has been said that research in AI revolves around five basic questions asked relative to some particular domain: What knowledge is required? How can this knowledge be acquired? How can it be represented in a system? How should this knowledge be manipulated in order to provide intelligent behavior? How can the behavior be explained? In this volume, all of these questions are addressed. From the perspective of the relationship of uncertainty to the basic questions of AI, the book divides naturally i

  14. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Cacuci, Dan G; Navon, Ionel Michael

    2005-01-01

    As computer-assisted modeling and analysis of physical processes have continued to grow and diversify, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses have become indispensable scientific tools. Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis. Volume I: Theory focused on the mathematical underpinnings of two important methods for such analyses: the Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure and the Global Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure. This volume concentrates on the practical aspects of performing these analyses for large-scale systems. The applications addressed include two-phase flow problems, a radiative c

  15. Uncertainty Analyses and Strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kevin Coppersmith

    2001-01-01

    The DOE identified a variety of uncertainties, arising from different sources, during its assessment of the performance of a potential geologic repository at the Yucca Mountain site. In general, the number and detail of process models developed for the Yucca Mountain site, and the complex coupling among those models, make the direct incorporation of all uncertainties difficult. The DOE has addressed these issues in a number of ways using an approach to uncertainties that is focused on producing a defensible evaluation of the performance of a potential repository. The treatment of uncertainties oriented toward defensible assessments has led to analyses and models with so-called ''conservative'' assumptions and parameter bounds, where conservative implies lower performance than might be demonstrated with a more realistic representation. The varying maturity of the analyses and models, and uneven level of data availability, result in total system level analyses with a mix of realistic and conservative estimates (for both probabilistic representations and single values). That is, some inputs have realistically represented uncertainties, and others are conservatively estimated or bounded. However, this approach is consistent with the ''reasonable assurance'' approach to compliance demonstration, which was called for in the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC) proposed 10 CFR Part 63 regulation (64 FR 8640 [DIRS 101680]). A risk analysis that includes conservatism in the inputs will result in conservative risk estimates. Therefore, the approach taken for the Total System Performance Assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) provides a reasonable representation of processes and conservatism for purposes of site recommendation. However, mixing unknown degrees of conservatism in models and parameter representations reduces the transparency of the analysis and makes the development of coherent and consistent probability statements about projected repository

  16. Uncertainties in repository modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilson, J.R.

    1996-12-31

    The distant future is ver difficult to predict. Unfortunately, our regulators are being enchouraged to extend ther regulatory period form the standard 10,000 years to 1 million years. Such overconfidence is not justified due to uncertainties in dating, calibration, and modeling.

  17. Uncertainties in repository modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, J.R.

    1996-01-01

    The distant future is ver difficult to predict. Unfortunately, our regulators are being enchouraged to extend ther regulatory period form the standard 10,000 years to 1 million years. Such overconfidence is not justified due to uncertainties in dating, calibration, and modeling

  18. Risks, uncertainty, vagueness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haefele, W.; Renn, O.; Erdmann, G.

    1990-01-01

    The notion of 'risk' is discussed in its social and technological contexts, leading to an investigation of the terms factuality, hypotheticality, uncertainty, and vagueness, and to the problems of acceptance and acceptability especially in the context of political decision finding. (DG) [de

  19. Uncertainty quantification in lattice QCD calculations for nuclear physics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beane, Silas R. [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States); Detmold, William [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States); Orginos, Kostas [College of William and Mary, Williamsburg, VA (United States); Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (TJNAF), Newport News, VA (United States); Savage, Martin J. [Institute for Nuclear Theory, Seattle, WA (United States)

    2015-02-05

    The numerical technique of Lattice QCD holds the promise of connecting the nuclear forces, nuclei, the spectrum and structure of hadrons, and the properties of matter under extreme conditions with the underlying theory of the strong interactions, quantum chromodynamics. A distinguishing, and thus far unique, feature of this formulation is that all of the associated uncertainties, both statistical and systematic can, in principle, be systematically reduced to any desired precision with sufficient computational and human resources. As a result, we review the sources of uncertainty inherent in Lattice QCD calculations for nuclear physics, and discuss how each is quantified in current efforts.

  20. Avoiding climate change uncertainties in Strategic Environmental Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen, E-mail: sannevl@plan.aau.dk [The Danish Centre for Environmental Assessment, Aalborg University-Copenhagen, A.C. Meyers Vænge 15, 2450 København SV (Denmark); Kørnøv, Lone, E-mail: lonek@plan.aau.dk [The Danish Centre for Environmental Assessment, Aalborg University, Skibbrogade 5, 1. Sal, 9000 Aalborg (Denmark); Driscoll, Patrick, E-mail: patrick@plan.aau.dk [The Danish Centre for Environmental Assessment, Aalborg University-Copenhagen, A.C. Meyers Vænge 15, 2450 København SV (Denmark)

    2013-11-15

    This article is concerned with how Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) practice handles climate change uncertainties within the Danish planning system. First, a hypothetical model is set up for how uncertainty is handled and not handled in decision-making. The model incorporates the strategies ‘reduction’ and ‘resilience’, ‘denying’, ‘ignoring’ and ‘postponing’. Second, 151 Danish SEAs are analysed with a focus on the extent to which climate change uncertainties are acknowledged and presented, and the empirical findings are discussed in relation to the model. The findings indicate that despite incentives to do so, climate change uncertainties were systematically avoided or downplayed in all but 5 of the 151 SEAs that were reviewed. Finally, two possible explanatory mechanisms are proposed to explain this: conflict avoidance and a need to quantify uncertainty.

  1. Avoiding climate change uncertainties in Strategic Environmental Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen; Kørnøv, Lone; Driscoll, Patrick

    2013-01-01

    This article is concerned with how Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) practice handles climate change uncertainties within the Danish planning system. First, a hypothetical model is set up for how uncertainty is handled and not handled in decision-making. The model incorporates the strategies ‘reduction’ and ‘resilience’, ‘denying’, ‘ignoring’ and ‘postponing’. Second, 151 Danish SEAs are analysed with a focus on the extent to which climate change uncertainties are acknowledged and presented, and the empirical findings are discussed in relation to the model. The findings indicate that despite incentives to do so, climate change uncertainties were systematically avoided or downplayed in all but 5 of the 151 SEAs that were reviewed. Finally, two possible explanatory mechanisms are proposed to explain this: conflict avoidance and a need to quantify uncertainty

  2. Uncertainty relation and simultaneous measurements in quantum theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Busch, P.

    1982-01-01

    In this thesis the question for the interpretation of the uncertainty relation is picked up, and a program for the justification of its individualistic interpretation is formulated. By means of quantum mechanical models for the position and momentum measurement a justification of the interpretaton has been tried by reconstruction of the origin of the uncertainties from the conditions of the measuring devices and the determination of the relation of the measured results to the object. By means of a model of the common measurement it could be shown how the uncertainty relation results from the not eliminable mutual disturbance of the devices and the uncertainty relation for the measuring system. So finally the commutation relation is conclusive. For the illustration the split experiment is discussed, first according to Heisenberg with fixed split, then for the quantum mechanical, movable split (Bohr-Einstein). (orig./HSI) [de

  3. Uncertainty and validation. Effect of user interpretation on uncertainty estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirchner, G.; Peterson, R.

    1996-11-01

    Uncertainty in predictions of environmental transfer models arises from, among other sources, the adequacy of the conceptual model, the approximations made in coding the conceptual model, the quality of the input data, the uncertainty in parameter values, and the assumptions made by the user. In recent years efforts to quantify the confidence that can be placed in predictions have been increasing, but have concentrated on a statistical propagation of the influence of parameter uncertainties on the calculational results. The primary objective of this Working Group of BIOMOVS II was to test user's influence on model predictions on a more systematic basis than has been done before. The main goals were as follows: To compare differences between predictions from different people all using the same model and the same scenario description with the statistical uncertainties calculated by the model. To investigate the main reasons for different interpretations by users. To create a better awareness of the potential influence of the user on the modeling results. Terrestrial food chain models driven by deposition of radionuclides from the atmosphere were used. Three codes were obtained and run with three scenarios by a maximum of 10 users. A number of conclusions can be drawn some of which are general and independent of the type of models and processes studied, while others are restricted to the few processes that were addressed directly: For any set of predictions, the variation in best estimates was greater than one order of magnitude. Often the range increased from deposition to pasture to milk probably due to additional transfer processes. The 95% confidence intervals about the predictions calculated from the parameter distributions prepared by the participants did not always overlap the observations; similarly, sometimes the confidence intervals on the predictions did not overlap. Often the 95% confidence intervals of individual predictions were smaller than the

  4. Uncertainty and validation. Effect of user interpretation on uncertainty estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kirchner, G. [Univ. of Bremen (Germany); Peterson, R. [AECL, Chalk River, ON (Canada)] [and others

    1996-11-01

    Uncertainty in predictions of environmental transfer models arises from, among other sources, the adequacy of the conceptual model, the approximations made in coding the conceptual model, the quality of the input data, the uncertainty in parameter values, and the assumptions made by the user. In recent years efforts to quantify the confidence that can be placed in predictions have been increasing, but have concentrated on a statistical propagation of the influence of parameter uncertainties on the calculational results. The primary objective of this Working Group of BIOMOVS II was to test user's influence on model predictions on a more systematic basis than has been done before. The main goals were as follows: To compare differences between predictions from different people all using the same model and the same scenario description with the statistical uncertainties calculated by the model. To investigate the main reasons for different interpretations by users. To create a better awareness of the potential influence of the user on the modeling results. Terrestrial food chain models driven by deposition of radionuclides from the atmosphere were used. Three codes were obtained and run with three scenarios by a maximum of 10 users. A number of conclusions can be drawn some of which are general and independent of the type of models and processes studied, while others are restricted to the few processes that were addressed directly: For any set of predictions, the variation in best estimates was greater than one order of magnitude. Often the range increased from deposition to pasture to milk probably due to additional transfer processes. The 95% confidence intervals about the predictions calculated from the parameter distributions prepared by the participants did not always overlap the observations; similarly, sometimes the confidence intervals on the predictions did not overlap. Often the 95% confidence intervals of individual predictions were smaller than the

  5. Breast reconstruction - natural tissue

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... flap; TRAM; Latissimus muscle flap with a breast implant; DIEP flap; DIEAP flap; Gluteal free flap; Transverse upper gracilis flap; TUG; Mastectomy - breast reconstruction with natural tissue; Breast cancer - breast reconstruction with natural tissue

  6. Breast reconstruction after mastectomy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel eSchmauss

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Breast cancer is the leading cause of cancer death in women worldwide. Its surgical approach has become less and less mutilating in the last decades. However, the overall number of breast reconstructions has significantly increased lately. Nowadays breast reconstruction should be individualized at its best, first of all taking into consideration oncological aspects of the tumor, neo-/adjuvant treatment and genetic predisposition, but also its timing (immediate versus delayed breast reconstruction, as well as the patient’s condition and wish. This article gives an overview over the various possibilities of breast reconstruction, including implant- and expander-based reconstruction, flap-based reconstruction (vascularized autologous tissue, the combination of implant and flap, reconstruction using non-vascularized autologous fat, as well as refinement surgery after breast reconstruction.

  7. Investigations on uncertainties in patient positioning for prostate treatment with EPID

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bakai, A.; Nuesslin, F.; Paulsen, F.; Plasswilm, L.; Bamberg, M.

    2002-01-01

    Background: Conformal radiotherapy techniques as used in prostate treatment allow to spare normal tissue by conforming the radiation fields to the shape of the planning target volume (PTV). To be able to fully utilize the advantages of these techniques correct patient positioning is an important prerequisite. This study employing an electronic portal imaging device (EPID) investigated the positioning uncertainties that occur in the pelvic region for different patient positioning devices. Patients and Methods: 15 patients with prostate cancer were irradiated with or without rectal balloon/pelvic mask at a linear accelerator with multileaf collimator (MLC). For each patient multiple portal images were taken from different directions and compared to the digitally reconstructed radiographs (DRRs) of the treatment planning system and to simulation films (Table 1, Figure 1). Results: In spite of different positioning devices, all patients showed comparable total positioning uncertainties of 4.0 mm (lateral), 4.5 mm (cranio-caudal) and 1.7 mm (dorso-ventral). The lateral positioning error was reduced for the pelvic mask patients while the cranio-caudal error increased (Table 2, Figure 2). A systematic and a random component sum up to the total positioning error, and a good estimate of the magnitudes of the two is possible from six to eight portal images (Figure 3). Conclusions: With a small number of portal images it is possible to find out the systematic and random positioning error of a patient. Knowledge of the random error can be used to resize the treatment margin which is clinically relevant since this error differs greatly for different patients (Figure 4). Image analysis with EPID is convenient, yet has some problems. For example, one only gets indirect information on the movement of the ventral rectum wall. The successful operation of positioning devices, although, needs further improvement - especially if one focuses on IMRT. (orig.) [de

  8. Jet Energy Scale Uncertainties in ATLAS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barillari, Teresa

    2012-01-01

    The first proton-proton collisions at a centre of mass energy of √s = 7TeV have been used by the ATLAS experiment to achieve an accuracy of the jet energy measurement between 2% and 4% for jets transverse momenta between 20 GeV and 2TeV and in the absolute pseudorapidity range up to 4.5. The jet energy scale uncertainty is derived from measurements in situ of the calorimeter single response to hadrons together with systematic variations in the Monte Carlo simulation. The transverse momentum balance between a central and a forward jet in events with two high transverse momenta jets is used to set the jet energy uncertainty in the forward region. The obtained uncertainty is confirmed by in-situ measurements. Jets in the TeV energy range have been tested using a system of well calibrated jets at low transverse momenta against high transverse momenta jets. A further reduction of the jet energy scale uncertainty between 1% and 2% for jets transverse momenta above 30 GeV has been achieved using data from the 2011 run based on an integrated luminosity of 5 fb −1 .

  9. Aggregate Measures of Watershed Health from Reconstructed ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Risk-based indices such as reliability, resilience, and vulnerability (R-R-V), have the potential to serve as watershed health assessment tools. Recent research has demonstrated the applicability of such indices for water quality (WQ) constituents such as total suspended solids and nutrients on an individual basis. However, the calculations can become tedious when time-series data for several WQ constituents have to be evaluated individually. Also, comparisons between locations with different sets of constituent data can prove difficult. In this study, data reconstruction using relevance vector machine algorithm was combined with dimensionality reduction via variational Bayesian noisy principal component analysis to reconstruct and condense sparse multidimensional WQ data sets into a single time series. The methodology allows incorporation of uncertainty in both the reconstruction and dimensionality-reduction steps. The R-R-V values were calculated using the aggregate time series at multiple locations within two Indiana watersheds. Results showed that uncertainty present in the reconstructed WQ data set propagates to the aggregate time series and subsequently to the aggregate R-R-V values as well. serving as motivating examples. Locations with different WQ constituents and different standards for impairment were successfully combined to provide aggregate measures of R-R-V values. Comparisons with individual constituent R-R-V values showed that v

  10. Measurement of the track reconstruction efficiency at LHCb

    CERN Document Server

    Aaij, Roel; Adinolfi, Marco; Affolder, Anthony; Ajaltouni, Ziad; Akar, Simon; Albrecht, Johannes; Alessio, Federico; Alexander, Michael; Ali, Suvayu; Alkhazov, Georgy; Alvarez Cartelle, Paula; Alves Jr, Antonio; Amato, Sandra; Amerio, Silvia; Amhis, Yasmine; An, Liupan; Anderlini, Lucio; Anderson, Jonathan; Andreassen, Rolf; Andreotti, Mirco; Andrews, Jason; Appleby, Robert; Aquines Gutierrez, Osvaldo; Archilli, Flavio; Artamonov, Alexander; Artuso, Marina; Aslanides, Elie; Auriemma, Giulio; Baalouch, Marouen; Bachmann, Sebastian; Back, John; Badalov, Alexey; Baldini, Wander; Barlow, Roger; Barschel, Colin; Barsuk, Sergey; Barter, William; Batozskaya, Varvara; Battista, Vincenzo; Bay, Aurelio; Beaucourt, Leo; Beddow, John; Bedeschi, Franco; Bediaga, Ignacio; Belogurov, Sergey; Belous, Konstantin; Belyaev, Ivan; Ben-Haim, Eli; Bencivenni, Giovanni; Benson, Sean; Benton, Jack; Berezhnoy, Alexander; Bernet, Roland; Bettler, Marc-Olivier; van Beuzekom, Martinus; Bien, Alexander; Bifani, Simone; Bird, Thomas; Bizzeti, Andrea; Bjørnstad, Pål Marius; Blake, Thomas; Blanc, Frédéric; Blouw, Johan; Blusk, Steven; Bocci, Valerio; Bondar, Alexander; Bondar, Nikolay; Bonivento, Walter; Borghi, Silvia; Borgia, Alessandra; Borsato, Martino; Bowcock, Themistocles; Bowen, Espen Eie; Bozzi, Concezio; Brambach, Tobias; van den Brand, Johannes; Bressieux, Joël; Brett, David; Britsch, Markward; Britton, Thomas; Brodzicka, Jolanta; Brook, Nicholas; Brown, Henry; Bursche, Albert; Busetto, Giovanni; Buytaert, Jan; Cadeddu, Sandro; Calabrese, Roberto; Calvi, Marta; Calvo Gomez, Miriam; Campana, Pierluigi; Campora Perez, Daniel; Carbone, Angelo; Carboni, Giovanni; Cardinale, Roberta; Cardini, Alessandro; Carson, Laurence; Carvalho Akiba, Kazuyoshi; Casse, Gianluigi; Cassina, Lorenzo; Castillo Garcia, Lucia; Cattaneo, Marco; Cauet, Christophe; Cenci, Riccardo; Charles, Matthew; Charpentier, Philippe; Chen, Shanzhen; Cheung, Shu-Faye; Chiapolini, Nicola; Chrzaszcz, Marcin; Ciba, Krzystof; Cid Vidal, Xabier; Ciezarek, Gregory; Clarke, Peter; Clemencic, Marco; Cliff, Harry; Closier, Joel; Coco, Victor; Cogan, Julien; Cogneras, Eric; Collins, Paula; Comerma-Montells, Albert; Contu, Andrea; Cook, Andrew; Coombes, Matthew; Coquereau, Samuel; Corti, Gloria; Corvo, Marco; Counts, Ian; Couturier, Benjamin; Cowan, Greig; Craik, Daniel Charles; Cruz Torres, Melissa Maria; Cunliffe, Samuel; Currie, Robert; D'Ambrosio, Carmelo; Dalseno, Jeremy; David, Pascal; David, Pieter; Davis, Adam; De Bruyn, Kristof; De Capua, Stefano; De Cian, Michel; De Miranda, Jussara; De Paula, Leandro; De Silva, Weeraddana; De Simone, Patrizia; Decamp, Daniel; Deckenhoff, Mirko; Del Buono, Luigi; Déléage, Nicolas; Derkach, Denis; Deschamps, Olivier; Dettori, Francesco; Di Canto, Angelo; Dijkstra, Hans; Donleavy, Stephanie; Dordei, Francesca; Dorigo, Mirco; Dosil Suárez, Alvaro; Dossett, David; Dovbnya, Anatoliy; Dreimanis, Karlis; Dujany, Giulio; Dupertuis, Frederic; Durante, Paolo; Dzhelyadin, Rustem; Dziurda, Agnieszka; Dzyuba, Alexey; Easo, Sajan; Egede, Ulrik; Egorychev, Victor; Eidelman, Semen; Eisenhardt, Stephan; Eitschberger, Ulrich; Ekelhof, Robert; Eklund, Lars; El Rifai, Ibrahim; Elsasser, Christian; Ely, Scott; Esen, Sevda; Evans, Hannah Mary; Evans, Timothy; Falabella, Antonio; Färber, Christian; Farinelli, Chiara; Farley, Nathanael; Farry, Stephen; Fay, Robert; Ferguson, Dianne; Fernandez Albor, Victor; Ferreira Rodrigues, Fernando; Ferro-Luzzi, Massimiliano; Filippov, Sergey; Fiore, Marco; Fiorini, Massimiliano; Firlej, Miroslaw; Fitzpatrick, Conor; Fiutowski, Tomasz; Fontana, Marianna; Fontanelli, Flavio; Forty, Roger; Francisco, Oscar; Frank, Markus; Frei, Christoph; Frosini, Maddalena; Fu, Jinlin; Furfaro, Emiliano; Gallas Torreira, Abraham; Galli, Domenico; Gallorini, Stefano; Gambetta, Silvia; Gandelman, Miriam; Gandini, Paolo; Gao, Yuanning; García Pardiñas, Julián; Garofoli, Justin; Garra Tico, Jordi; Garrido, Lluis; Gaspar, Clara; Gauld, Rhorry; Gavardi, Laura; Gavrilov, Gennadii; Gersabeck, Evelina; Gersabeck, Marco; Gershon, Timothy; Ghez, Philippe; Gianelle, Alessio; Giani', Sebastiana; Gibson, Valerie; Giubega, Lavinia-Helena; Gligorov, V.V.; Göbel, Carla; Golubkov, Dmitry; Golutvin, Andrey; Gomes, Alvaro; Gotti, Claudio; Grabalosa Gándara, Marc; Graciani Diaz, Ricardo; Granado Cardoso, Luis Alberto; Graugés, Eugeni; Graziani, Giacomo; Grecu, Alexandru; Greening, Edward; Gregson, Sam; Griffith, Peter; Grillo, Lucia; Grünberg, Oliver; Gui, Bin; Gushchin, Evgeny; Guz, Yury; Gys, Thierry; Hadjivasiliou, Christos; Haefeli, Guido; Haen, Christophe; Haines, Susan; Hall, Samuel; Hamilton, Brian; Hampson, Thomas; Han, Xiaoxue; Hansmann-Menzemer, Stephanie; Harnew, Neville; Harnew, Samuel; Harrison, Jonathan; He, Jibo; Head, Timothy; Heijne, Veerle; Hennessy, Karol; Henrard, Pierre; Henry, Louis; Hernando Morata, Jose Angel; van Herwijnen, Eric; Heß, Miriam; Hicheur, Adlène; Hill, Donal; Hoballah, Mostafa; Hombach, Christoph; Hulsbergen, Wouter; Hunt, Philip; Hussain, Nazim; Hutchcroft, David; Hynds, Daniel; Idzik, Marek; Ilten, Philip; Jacobsson, Richard; Jaeger, Andreas; Jalocha, Pawel; Jans, Eddy; Jaton, Pierre; Jawahery, Abolhassan; Jing, Fanfan; John, Malcolm; Johnson, Daniel; Jones, Christopher; Joram, Christian; Jost, Beat; Jurik, Nathan; Kaballo, Michael; Kandybei, Sergii; Kanso, Walaa; Karacson, Matthias; Karbach, Moritz; Karodia, Sarah; Kelsey, Matthew; Kenyon, Ian; Ketel, Tjeerd; Khanji, Basem; Khurewathanakul, Chitsanu; Klaver, Suzanne; Klimaszewski, Konrad; Kochebina, Olga; Kolpin, Michael; Komarov, Ilya; Koopman, Rose; Koppenburg, Patrick; Korolev, Mikhail; Kozlinskiy, Alexandr; Kravchuk, Leonid; Kreplin, Katharina; Kreps, Michal; Krocker, Georg; Krokovny, Pavel; Kruse, Florian; Kucewicz, Wojciech; Kucharczyk, Marcin; Kudryavtsev, Vasily; Kurek, Krzysztof; Kvaratskheliya, Tengiz; La Thi, Viet Nga; Lacarrere, Daniel; Lafferty, George; Lai, Adriano; Lambert, Dean; Lambert, Robert W; Lanfranchi, Gaia; Langenbruch, Christoph; Langhans, Benedikt; Latham, Thomas; Lazzeroni, Cristina; Le Gac, Renaud; van Leerdam, Jeroen; Lees, Jean-Pierre; Lefèvre, Regis; Leflat, Alexander; Lefrançois, Jacques; Leo, Sabato; Leroy, Olivier; Lesiak, Tadeusz; Leverington, Blake; Li, Yiming; Likhomanenko, Tatiana; Liles, Myfanwy; Lindner, Rolf; Linn, Christian; Lionetto, Federica; Liu, Bo; Lohn, Stefan; Longstaff, Iain; Lopes, Jose; Lopez-March, Neus; Lowdon, Peter; Lu, Haiting; Lucchesi, Donatella; Luo, Haofei; Lupato, Anna; Luppi, Eleonora; Lupton, Oliver; Machefert, Frederic; Machikhiliyan, Irina V; Maciuc, Florin; Maev, Oleg; Malde, Sneha; Manca, Giulia; Mancinelli, Giampiero; Maratas, Jan; Marchand, Jean François; Marconi, Umberto; Marin Benito, Carla; Marino, Pietro; Märki, Raphael; Marks, Jörg; Martellotti, Giuseppe; Martens, Aurelien; Martín Sánchez, Alexandra; Martinelli, Maurizio; Martinez Santos, Diego; Martinez Vidal, Fernando; Martins Tostes, Danielle; Massafferri, André; Matev, Rosen; Mathe, Zoltan; Matteuzzi, Clara; Mazurov, Alexander; McCann, Michael; McCarthy, James; McNab, Andrew; McNulty, Ronan; McSkelly, Ben; Meadows, Brian; Meier, Frank; Meissner, Marco; Merk, Marcel; Milanes, Diego Alejandro; Minard, Marie-Noelle; Moggi, Niccolò; Molina Rodriguez, Josue; Monteil, Stephane; Morandin, Mauro; Morawski, Piotr; Mordà, Alessandro; Morello, Michael Joseph; Moron, Jakub; Morris, Adam Benjamin; Mountain, Raymond; Muheim, Franz; Müller, Katharina; Mussini, Manuel; Muster, Bastien; Naik, Paras; Nakada, Tatsuya; Nandakumar, Raja; Nasteva, Irina; Needham, Matthew; Neri, Nicola; Neubert, Sebastian; Neufeld, Niko; Neuner, Max; Nguyen, Anh Duc; Nguyen, Thi-Dung; Nguyen-Mau, Chung; Nicol, Michelle; Niess, Valentin; Niet, Ramon; Nikitin, Nikolay; Nikodem, Thomas; Novoselov, Alexey; O'Hanlon, Daniel Patrick; Oblakowska-Mucha, Agnieszka; Obraztsov, Vladimir; Oggero, Serena; Ogilvy, Stephen; Okhrimenko, Oleksandr; Oldeman, Rudolf; Onderwater, Gerco; Orlandea, Marius; Otalora Goicochea, Juan Martin; Owen, Patrick; Oyanguren, Maria Arantza; Pal, Bilas Kanti; Palano, Antimo; Palombo, Fernando; Palutan, Matteo; Panman, Jacob; Papanestis, Antonios; Pappagallo, Marco; Pappalardo, Luciano; Parkes, Christopher; Parkinson, Christopher John; Passaleva, Giovanni; Patel, Girish; Patel, Mitesh; Patrignani, Claudia; Pazos Alvarez, Antonio; Pearce, Alex; Pellegrino, Antonio; Pepe Altarelli, Monica; Perazzini, Stefano; Perez Trigo, Eliseo; Perret, Pascal; Perrin-Terrin, Mathieu; Pescatore, Luca; Pesen, Erhan; Petridis, Konstantin; Petrolini, Alessandro; Picatoste Olloqui, Eduardo; Pietrzyk, Boleslaw; Pilař, Tomas; Pinci, Davide; Pistone, Alessandro; Playfer, Stephen; Plo Casasus, Maximo; Polci, Francesco; Poluektov, Anton; Polycarpo, Erica; Popov, Alexander; Popov, Dmitry; Popovici, Bogdan; Potterat, Cédric; Price, Eugenia; Prisciandaro, Jessica; Pritchard, Adrian; Prouve, Claire; Pugatch, Valery; Puig Navarro, Albert; Punzi, Giovanni; Qian, Wenbin; Rachwal, Bartolomiej; Rademacker, Jonas; Rakotomiaramanana, Barinjaka; Rama, Matteo; Rangel, Murilo; Raniuk, Iurii; Rauschmayr, Nathalie; Raven, Gerhard; Reichert, Stefanie; Reid, Matthew; dos Reis, Alberto; Ricciardi, Stefania; Richards, Sophie; Rihl, Mariana; Rinnert, Kurt; Rives Molina, Vincente; Roa Romero, Diego; Robbe, Patrick; Rodrigues, Ana Barbara; Rodrigues, Eduardo; Rodriguez Perez, Pablo; Roiser, Stefan; Romanovsky, Vladimir; Romero Vidal, Antonio; Rotondo, Marcello; Rouvinet, Julien; Ruf, Thomas; Ruffini, Fabrizio; Ruiz, Hugo; Ruiz Valls, Pablo; Saborido Silva, Juan Jose; Sagidova, Naylya; Sail, Paul; Saitta, Biagio; Salustino Guimaraes, Valdir; Sanchez Mayordomo, Carlos; Sanmartin Sedes, Brais; Santacesaria, Roberta; Santamarina Rios, Cibran; Santovetti, Emanuele; Sarti, Alessio; Satriano, Celestina; Satta, Alessia; Saunders, Daniel Martin; Savrie, Mauro; Savrina, Darya; Schiller, Manuel; Schindler, Heinrich; Schlupp, Maximilian; Schmelling, Michael; Schmidt, Burkhard; Schneider, Olivier; Schopper, Andreas; Schune, Marie Helene; Schwemmer, Rainer; Sciascia, Barbara; Sciubba, Adalberto; Seco, Marcos; Semennikov, Alexander; Sepp, Indrek; Serra, Nicola; Serrano, Justine; Sestini, Lorenzo; Seyfert, Paul; Shapkin, Mikhail; Shapoval, Illya; Shcheglov, Yury; Shears, Tara; Shekhtman, Lev; Shevchenko, Vladimir; Shires, Alexander; Silva Coutinho, Rafael; Simi, Gabriele; Sirendi, Marek; Skidmore, Nicola; Skwarnicki, Tomasz; Smith, Anthony; Smith, Edmund; Smith, Eluned; Smith, Jackson; Smith, Mark; Snoek, Hella; Sokoloff, Michael; Soler, Paul; Soomro, Fatima; Souza, Daniel; Souza De Paula, Bruno; Spaan, Bernhard; Sparkes, Ailsa; Spradlin, Patrick; Sridharan, Srikanth; Stagni, Federico; Stahl, Marian; Stahl, Sascha; Steinkamp, Olaf; Stenyakin, Oleg; Stevenson, Scott; Stoica, Sabin; Stone, Sheldon; Storaci, Barbara; Stracka, Simone; Straticiuc, Mihai; Straumann, Ulrich; Stroili, Roberto; Subbiah, Vijay Kartik; Sun, Liang; Sutcliffe, William; Swientek, Krzysztof; Swientek, Stefan; Syropoulos, Vasileios; Szczekowski, Marek; Szczypka, Paul; Szilard, Daniela; Szumlak, Tomasz; T'Jampens, Stephane; Teklishyn, Maksym; Tellarini, Giulia; Teubert, Frederic; Thomas, Christopher; Thomas, Eric; van Tilburg, Jeroen; Tisserand, Vincent; Tobin, Mark; Tolk, Siim; Tomassetti, Luca; Tonelli, Diego; Topp-Joergensen, Stig; Torr, Nicholas; Tournefier, Edwige; Tourneur, Stephane; Tran, Minh Tâm; Tresch, Marco; Tsaregorodtsev, Andrei; Tsopelas, Panagiotis; Tuning, Niels; Ubeda Garcia, Mario; Ukleja, Artur; Ustyuzhanin, Andrey; Uwer, Ulrich; Vagnoni, Vincenzo; Valenti, Giovanni; Vallier, Alexis; Vazquez Gomez, Ricardo; Vazquez Regueiro, Pablo; Vázquez Sierra, Carlos; Vecchi, Stefania; Velthuis, Jaap; Veltri, Michele; Veneziano, Giovanni; Vesterinen, Mika; Viaud, Benoit; Vieira, Daniel; Vieites Diaz, Maria; Vilasis-Cardona, Xavier; Vollhardt, Achim; Volyanskyy, Dmytro; Voong, David; Vorobyev, Alexey; Vorobyev, Vitaly; Voß, Christian; Voss, Helge; de Vries, Jacco; Waldi, Roland; Wallace, Charlotte; Wallace, Ronan; Walsh, John; Wandernoth, Sebastian; Wang, Jianchun; Ward, David; Watson, Nigel; Websdale, David; Whitehead, Mark; Wicht, Jean; Wiedner, Dirk; Wilkinson, Guy; Williams, Matthew; Williams, Mike; Wilson, Fergus; Wimberley, Jack; Wishahi, Julian; Wislicki, Wojciech; Witek, Mariusz; Wormser, Guy; Wotton, Stephen; Wright, Simon; Wu, Suzhi; Wyllie, Kenneth; Xie, Yuehong; Xing, Zhou; Xu, Zhirui; Yang, Zhenwei; Yuan, Xuhao; Yushchenko, Oleg; Zangoli, Maria; Zavertyaev, Mikhail; Zhang, Liming; Zhang, Wen Chao; Zhang, Yanxi; Zhelezov, Alexey; Zhokhov, Anatoly; Zhong, Liang; Zvyagin, Alexander

    2015-02-12

    The determination of track reconstruction efficiencies at LHCb using $J/\\psi\\rightarrow\\mu^{+}\\mu^{-}$ decays is presented. Efficiencies above $95\\%$ are found for the data taking periods in 2010, 2011, and 2012. The ratio of the track reconstruction efficiency of muons in data and simulation is compatible with unity and measured with an uncertainty of $0.8\\,\\%$ for data taking in 2010, and at a precision of $0.4\\,\\%$ for data taking in 2011 and 2012. For hadrons an additional $1.4\\,\\%$ uncertainty due to material interactions is assumed. This result is crucial for accurate cross section and branching fraction measurements in LHCb.

  11. Measurement of the track reconstruction efficiency at LHCb

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Collaboration, The LHCb

    2015-01-01

    The determination of track reconstruction efficiencies at LHCb using J/ψ→μ + μ - decays is presented. Efficiencies above 95% are found for the data taking periods in 2010, 2011, and 2012. The ratio of the track reconstruction efficiency of muons in data and simulation is compatible with unity and measured with an uncertainty of 0.8 % for data taking in 2010, and at a precision of 0.4 % for data taking in 2011 and 2012. For hadrons an additional 1.4 % uncertainty due to material interactions is assumed. This result is crucial for accurate cross section and branching fraction measurements in LHCb

  12. Uncertainty in adaptive capacity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neil Adger, W.; Vincent, K.

    2005-01-01

    The capacity to adapt is a critical element of the process of adaptation: it is the vector of resources that represent the asset base from which adaptation actions can be made. Adaptive capacity can in theory be identified and measured at various scales, from the individual to the nation. The assessment of uncertainty within such measures comes from the contested knowledge domain and theories surrounding the nature of the determinants of adaptive capacity and the human action of adaptation. While generic adaptive capacity at the national level, for example, is often postulated as being dependent on health, governance and political rights, and literacy, and economic well-being, the determinants of these variables at national levels are not widely understood. We outline the nature of this uncertainty for the major elements of adaptive capacity and illustrate these issues with the example of a social vulnerability index for countries in Africa. (authors)

  13. Uncertainties about climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laval, Katia; Laval, Guy

    2013-01-01

    Like meteorology, climatology is not an exact science: climate change forecasts necessarily include a share of uncertainty. It is precisely this uncertainty which is brandished and exploited by the opponents to the global warming theory to put into question the estimations of its future consequences. Is it legitimate to predict the future using the past climate data (well documented up to 100000 years BP) or the climates of other planets, taking into account the impreciseness of the measurements and the intrinsic complexity of the Earth's machinery? How is it possible to model a so huge and interwoven system for which any exact description has become impossible? Why water and precipitations play such an important role in local and global forecasts, and how should they be treated? This book written by two physicists answers with simpleness these delicate questions in order to give anyone the possibility to build his own opinion about global warming and the need to act rapidly

  14. Uncertainty Quantification in Alchemical Free Energy Methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhati, Agastya P; Wan, Shunzhou; Hu, Yuan; Sherborne, Brad; Coveney, Peter V

    2018-05-02

    Alchemical free energy methods have gained much importance recently from several reports of improved ligand-protein binding affinity predictions based on their implementation using molecular dynamics simulations. A large number of variants of such methods implementing different accelerated sampling techniques and free energy estimators are available, each claimed to be better than the others in its own way. However, the key features of reproducibility and quantification of associated uncertainties in such methods have barely been discussed. Here, we apply a systematic protocol for uncertainty quantification to a number of popular alchemical free energy methods, covering both absolute and relative free energy predictions. We show that a reliable measure of error estimation is provided by ensemble simulation-an ensemble of independent MD simulations-which applies irrespective of the free energy method. The need to use ensemble methods is fundamental and holds regardless of the duration of time of the molecular dynamics simulations performed.

  15. Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tversky, A; Kahneman, D

    1974-09-27

    This article described three heuristics that are employed in making judgements under uncertainty: (i) representativeness, which is usually employed when people are asked to judge the probability that an object or event A belongs to class or process B; (ii) availability of instances or scenarios, which is often employed when people are asked to assess the frequency of a class or the plausibility of a particular development; and (iii) adjustment from an anchor, which is usually employed in numerical prediction when a relevant value is available. These heuristics are highly economical and usually effective, but they lead to systematic and predictable errors. A better understanding of these heuristics and of the biases to which they lead could improve judgements and decisions in situations of uncertainty.

  16. The uncertainty principle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martens, Hans.

    1991-01-01

    The subject of this thesis is the uncertainty principle (UP). The UP is one of the most characteristic points of differences between quantum and classical mechanics. The starting point of this thesis is the work of Niels Bohr. Besides the discussion the work is also analyzed. For the discussion of the different aspects of the UP the formalism of Davies and Ludwig is used instead of the more commonly used formalism of Neumann and Dirac. (author). 214 refs.; 23 figs

  17. Uncertainty in artificial intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Shachter, RD; Henrion, M; Lemmer, JF

    1990-01-01

    This volume, like its predecessors, reflects the cutting edge of research on the automation of reasoning under uncertainty.A more pragmatic emphasis is evident, for although some papers address fundamental issues, the majority address practical issues. Topics include the relations between alternative formalisms (including possibilistic reasoning), Dempster-Shafer belief functions, non-monotonic reasoning, Bayesian and decision theoretic schemes, and new inference techniques for belief nets. New techniques are applied to important problems in medicine, vision, robotics, and natural language und

  18. Economic uncertainty principle?

    OpenAIRE

    Alexander Harin

    2006-01-01

    The economic principle of (hidden) uncertainty is presented. New probability formulas are offered. Examples of solutions of three types of fundamental problems are reviewed.; Principe d'incertitude économique? Le principe économique d'incertitude (cachée) est présenté. De nouvelles formules de chances sont offertes. Les exemples de solutions des trois types de problèmes fondamentaux sont reconsidérés.

  19. Citizen Candidates Under Uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Eguia, Jon X.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we make two contributions to the growing literature on "citizen-candidate" models of representative democracy. First, we add uncertainty about the total vote count. We show that in a society with a large electorate, where the outcome of the election is uncertain and where winning candidates receive a large reward from holding office, there will be a two-candidate equilibrium and no equilibria with a single candidate. Second, we introduce a new concept of equilibrium, which we te...

  20. Achieving 95% probability level using best estimate codes and the code scaling, applicability and uncertainty (CSAU) [Code Scaling, Applicability and Uncertainty] methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, G.E.; Boyack, B.E.; Duffey, R.B.; Griffith, P.; Katsma, K.R.; Lellouche, G.S.; Rohatgi, U.S.; Wulff, W.; Zuber, N.

    1988-01-01

    Issue of a revised rule for loss of coolant accident/emergency core cooling system (LOCA/ECCS) analysis of light water reactors will allow the use of best estimate (BE) computer codes in safety analysis, with uncertainty analysis. This paper describes a systematic methodology, CSAU (Code Scaling, Applicability and Uncertainty), which will provide uncertainty bounds in a cost effective, auditable, rational and practical manner. 8 figs., 2 tabs

  1. Calibration Under Uncertainty.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Swiler, Laura Painton; Trucano, Timothy Guy

    2005-03-01

    This report is a white paper summarizing the literature and different approaches to the problem of calibrating computer model parameters in the face of model uncertainty. Model calibration is often formulated as finding the parameters that minimize the squared difference between the model-computed data (the predicted data) and the actual experimental data. This approach does not allow for explicit treatment of uncertainty or error in the model itself: the model is considered the %22true%22 deterministic representation of reality. While this approach does have utility, it is far from an accurate mathematical treatment of the true model calibration problem in which both the computed data and experimental data have error bars. This year, we examined methods to perform calibration accounting for the error in both the computer model and the data, as well as improving our understanding of its meaning for model predictability. We call this approach Calibration under Uncertainty (CUU). This talk presents our current thinking on CUU. We outline some current approaches in the literature, and discuss the Bayesian approach to CUU in detail.

  2. Participation under Uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boudourides, Moses A.

    2003-01-01

    This essay reviews a number of theoretical perspectives about uncertainty and participation in the present-day knowledge-based society. After discussing the on-going reconfigurations of science, technology and society, we examine how appropriate for policy studies are various theories of social complexity. Post-normal science is such an example of a complexity-motivated approach, which justifies civic participation as a policy response to an increasing uncertainty. But there are different categories and models of uncertainties implying a variety of configurations of policy processes. A particular role in all of them is played by expertise whose democratization is an often-claimed imperative nowadays. Moreover, we discuss how different participatory arrangements are shaped into instruments of policy-making and framing regulatory processes. As participation necessitates and triggers deliberation, we proceed to examine the role and the barriers of deliberativeness. Finally, we conclude by referring to some critical views about the ultimate assumptions of recent European policy frameworks and the conceptions of civic participation and politicization that they invoke

  3. Uncertainty analysis techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marivoet, J.; Saltelli, A.; Cadelli, N.

    1987-01-01

    The origin of the uncertainty affecting Performance Assessments, as well as their propagation to dose and risk results is discussed. The analysis is focused essentially on the uncertainties introduced by the input parameters, the values of which may range over some orders of magnitude and may be given as probability distribution function. The paper briefly reviews the existing sampling techniques used for Monte Carlo simulations and the methods for characterizing the output curves, determining their convergence and confidence limits. Annual doses, expectation values of the doses and risks are computed for a particular case of a possible repository in clay, in order to illustrate the significance of such output characteristics as the mean, the logarithmic mean and the median as well as their ratios. The report concludes that provisionally, due to its better robustness, such estimation as the 90th percentile may be substituted to the arithmetic mean for comparison of the estimated doses with acceptance criteria. In any case, the results obtained through Uncertainty Analyses must be interpreted with caution as long as input data distribution functions are not derived from experiments reasonably reproducing the situation in a well characterized repository and site

  4. Deterministic uncertainty analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Worley, B.A.

    1987-12-01

    This paper presents a deterministic uncertainty analysis (DUA) method for calculating uncertainties that has the potential to significantly reduce the number of computer runs compared to conventional statistical analysis. The method is based upon the availability of derivative and sensitivity data such as that calculated using the well known direct or adjoint sensitivity analysis techniques. Formation of response surfaces using derivative data and the propagation of input probability distributions are discussed relative to their role in the DUA method. A sample problem that models the flow of water through a borehole is used as a basis to compare the cumulative distribution function of the flow rate as calculated by the standard statistical methods and the DUA method. Propogation of uncertainties by the DUA method is compared for ten cases in which the number of reference model runs was varied from one to ten. The DUA method gives a more accurate representation of the true cumulative distribution of the flow rate based upon as few as two model executions compared to fifty model executions using a statistical approach. 16 refs., 4 figs., 5 tabs

  5. Network reconstruction via graph blending

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estrada, Rolando

    2016-05-01

    Graphs estimated from empirical data are often noisy and incomplete due to the difficulty of faithfully observing all the components (nodes and edges) of the true graph. This problem is particularly acute for large networks where the number of components may far exceed available surveillance capabilities. Errors in the observed graph can render subsequent analyses invalid, so it is vital to develop robust methods that can minimize these observational errors. Errors in the observed graph may include missing and spurious components, as well fused (multiple nodes are merged into one) and split (a single node is misinterpreted as many) nodes. Traditional graph reconstruction methods are only able to identify missing or spurious components (primarily edges, and to a lesser degree nodes), so we developed a novel graph blending framework that allows us to cast the full estimation problem as a simple edge addition/deletion problem. Armed with this framework, we systematically investigate the viability of various topological graph features, such as the degree distribution or the clustering coefficients, and existing graph reconstruction methods for tackling the full estimation problem. Our experimental results suggest that incorporating any topological feature as a source of information actually hinders reconstruction accuracy. We provide a theoretical analysis of this phenomenon and suggest several avenues for improving this estimation problem.

  6. Tau reconstruction, energy calibration and identification at ATLAS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trottier-Mcdonald, Michel

    2012-01-01

    Tau leptons play a central role in the LHC physics programme, in particular as an important signature in many Higgs boson and supersymmetry searches. They are further used in Standard Model electroweak measurements, as well as detector-related studies like the determination of the missing transverse energy scale. Copious backgrounds from QCD processes call for both efficient identification of hadronically decaying tau leptons, as well as large suppression of fake candidates. A solid understanding of the combined performance of the calorimeter and tracking detectors is also required. We present the current status of the tau reconstruction, energy calibration and identification with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Identification efficiencies are measured in W →τν events in data and compared with predictions from Monte Carlo simulations, whereas the misidentification probabilities of QCD jets and electrons are determined from various jet-enriched data samples and from Z → ee events, respectively. The tau energy scale calibration is described and systematic uncertainties on both energy scale and identification efficiencies discussed. (author)

  7. LOFT uncertainty-analysis methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lassahn, G.D.

    1983-01-01

    The methodology used for uncertainty analyses of measurements in the Loss-of-Fluid Test (LOFT) nuclear-reactor-safety research program is described and compared with other methodologies established for performing uncertainty analyses

  8. LOFT uncertainty-analysis methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lassahn, G.D.

    1983-01-01

    The methodology used for uncertainty analyses of measurements in the Loss-of-Fluid Test (LOFT) nuclear reactor safety research program is described and compared with other methodologies established for performing uncertainty analyses

  9. Evaluation Procedures of Random Uncertainties in Theoretical Calculations of Cross Sections and Rate Coefficients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kokoouline, V.; Richardson, W.

    2014-01-01

    Uncertainties in theoretical calculations may include: • Systematic uncertainty: Due to applicability limits of the chosen model. • Random: Within a model, uncertainties of model parameters result in uncertainties of final results (such as cross sections). • If uncertainties of experimental and theoretical data are known, for the purpose of data evaluation (to produce recommended data), one should combine two data sets to produce the best guess data with the smallest possible uncertainty. In many situations, it is possible to assess the accuracy of theoretical calculations because theoretical models usually rely on parameters that are uncertain, but not completely random, i.e. the uncertainties of the parameters of the models are approximately known. If there are one or several such parameters with corresponding uncertainties, even if some or all parameters are correlated, the above approach gives a conceptually simple way to calculate uncertainties of final cross sections (uncertainty propagation). Numerically, the statistical approach to the uncertainty propagation could be computationally expensive. However, in situations, where uncertainties are considered to be as important as the actual cross sections (for data validation or benchmark calculations, for example), such a numerical effort is justified. Having data from different sources (say, from theory and experiment), a systematic statistical approach allows one to compare the data and produce “unbiased” evaluated data with improved uncertainties, if uncertainties of initial data from different sources are available. Without uncertainties, the data evaluation/validation becomes impossible. This is the reason why theoreticians should assess the accuracy of their calculations in one way or another. A statistical and systematic approach, similar to the described above, is preferable.

  10. Introducing uncertainty analysis of nucleation and crystal growth models in Process Analytical Technology (PAT) system design of crystallization processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abdul Samad, Noor Asma Fazli Bin; Sin, Gürkan; Gernaey, Krist

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents the application of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis as part of a systematic modelbased process monitoring and control (PAT) system design framework for crystallization processes. For the uncertainty analysis, the Monte Carlo procedure is used to propagate input uncertainty...

  11. Uncertainty quantification in nanomechanical measurements using the atomic force microscope

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, Ryan; Raman, Arvind; Moon, Robert; Pratt, Jon; Shaw, Gordon

    2011-01-01

    Quantifying uncertainty in measured properties of nanomaterials is a prerequisite for the manufacture of reliable nanoengineered materials and products. Yet, rigorous uncertainty quantification (UQ) is rarely applied for material property measurements with the atomic force microscope (AFM), a widely used instrument that can measure properties at nanometer scale resolution of both inorganic and biological surfaces and nanomaterials. We present a framework to ascribe uncertainty to local nanomechanical properties of any nanoparticle or surface measured with the AFM by taking into account the main uncertainty sources inherent in such measurements. We demonstrate the framework by quantifying uncertainty in AFM-based measurements of the transverse elastic modulus of cellulose nanocrystals (CNCs), an abundant, plant-derived nanomaterial whose mechanical properties are comparable to Kevlar fibers. For a single, isolated CNC the transverse elastic modulus was found to have a mean of 8.1 GPa and a 95% confidence interval of 2.7–20 GPa. A key result is that multiple replicates of force–distance curves do not sample the important sources of uncertainty, which are systematic in nature. The dominant source of uncertainty is the nondimensional photodiode sensitivity calibration rather than the cantilever stiffness or Z-piezo calibrations. The results underscore the great need for, and open a path towards, quantifying and minimizing uncertainty in AFM-based material property measurements of nanoparticles, nanostructured surfaces, thin films, polymers and biomaterials.

  12. The EURACOS activation experiments: preliminary uncertainty analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yeivin, Y.

    1982-01-01

    A sequence of counting rates of an irradiated sulphur pellet, r(tsub(i)), measured at different times after the end of the irradiation, are fitted to r(t)=Aexp(-lambda t)+B. A standard adjustment procedure is applied to determine the parameters A and B, their standard deviations and correlation, and chi square. It is demonstrated that if the counting-rate uncertainties are entirely due to the counting statistics, the experimental data are totally inconsistent with the ''theoretical'' model. However, assuming an additional systematic error of approximalety 1%, and eliminating a few ''bad'' data, produces a data set quite consistent with the model. The dependence of chi square on the assumed systematic error and the data elimination procedure are discussed in great detail. A review of the adjustment procedure is appended to the report

  13. Do Orthopaedic Surgeons Acknowledge Uncertainty?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Teunis, Teun; Janssen, Stein; Guitton, Thierry G.; Ring, David; Parisien, Robert

    2016-01-01

    Much of the decision-making in orthopaedics rests on uncertain evidence. Uncertainty is therefore part of our normal daily practice, and yet physician uncertainty regarding treatment could diminish patients' health. It is not known if physician uncertainty is a function of the evidence alone or if

  14. Investment and uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Greasley, David; Madsen, Jakob B.

    2006-01-01

    A severe collapse of fixed capital formation distinguished the onset of the Great Depression from other investment downturns between the world wars. Using a model estimated for the years 1890-2000, we show that the expected profitability of capital measured by Tobin's q, and the uncertainty...... surrounding expected profits indicated by share price volatility, were the chief influences on investment levels, and that heightened share price volatility played the dominant role in the crucial investment collapse in 1930. Investment did not simply follow the downward course of income at the onset...

  15. Optimization under Uncertainty

    KAUST Repository

    Lopez, Rafael H.

    2016-01-06

    The goal of this poster is to present the main approaches to optimization of engineering systems in the presence of uncertainties. We begin by giving an insight about robust optimization. Next, we detail how to deal with probabilistic constraints in optimization, the so called the reliability based design. Subsequently, we present the risk optimization approach, which includes the expected costs of failure in the objective function. After that the basic description of each approach is given, the projects developed by CORE are presented. Finally, the main current topic of research of CORE is described.

  16. Optimizing production under uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Svend

    This Working Paper derives criteria for optimal production under uncertainty based on the state-contingent approach (Chambers and Quiggin, 2000), and discusses po-tential problems involved in applying the state-contingent approach in a normative context. The analytical approach uses the concept...... of state-contingent production functions and a definition of inputs including both sort of input, activity and alloca-tion technology. It also analyses production decisions where production is combined with trading in state-contingent claims such as insurance contracts. The final part discusses...

  17. Commonplaces and social uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lassen, Inger

    2008-01-01

    This article explores the concept of uncertainty in four focus group discussions about genetically modified food. In the discussions, members of the general public interact with food biotechnology scientists while negotiating their attitudes towards genetic engineering. Their discussions offer...... an example of risk discourse in which the use of commonplaces seems to be a central feature (Myers 2004: 81). My analyses support earlier findings that commonplaces serve important interactional purposes (Barton 1999) and that they are used for mitigating disagreement, for closing topics and for facilitating...

  18. Principles of Uncertainty

    CERN Document Server

    Kadane, Joseph B

    2011-01-01

    An intuitive and mathematical introduction to subjective probability and Bayesian statistics. An accessible, comprehensive guide to the theory of Bayesian statistics, Principles of Uncertainty presents the subjective Bayesian approach, which has played a pivotal role in game theory, economics, and the recent boom in Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Both rigorous and friendly, the book contains: Introductory chapters examining each new concept or assumption Just-in-time mathematics -- the presentation of ideas just before they are applied Summary and exercises at the end of each chapter Discus

  19. Mathematical Analysis of Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angel GARRIDO

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Classical Logic showed early its insufficiencies for solving AI problems. The introduction of Fuzzy Logic aims at this problem. There have been research in the conventional Rough direction alone or in the Fuzzy direction alone, and more recently, attempts to combine both into Fuzzy Rough Sets or Rough Fuzzy Sets. We analyse some new and powerful tools in the study of Uncertainty, as the Probabilistic Graphical Models, Chain Graphs, Bayesian Networks, and Markov Networks, integrating our knowledge of graphs and probability.

  20. Particle Dark Matter constraints: the effect of Galactic uncertainties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benito, Maria; Bernal, Nicolás; Iocco, Fabio [ICTP South American Institute for Fundamental Research Instituto de Física Teórica - Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) Rua Dr. Bento Teobaldo Ferraz 271, 01140-070 São Paulo, SP Brazil (Brazil); Bozorgnia, Nassim; Calore, Francesca, E-mail: mariabenitocst@gmail.com, E-mail: nicolas.bernal@uan.edu.co, E-mail: n.bozorgnia@uva.nl, E-mail: calore@lapth.cnrs.fr, E-mail: fabio.iocco.astro@gmail.com [GRAPPA Institute, Institute for Theoretical Physics Amsterdam and Delta Institute for Theoretical Physics, University of Amsterdam, Science Park 904, 1098 XH Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2017-02-01

    Collider, space, and Earth based experiments are now able to probe several extensions of the Standard Model of particle physics which provide viable dark matter candidates. Direct and indirect dark matter searches rely on inputs of astrophysical nature, such as the local dark matter density or the shape of the dark matter density profile in the target in object. The determination of these quantities is highly affected by astrophysical uncertainties. The latter, especially those for our own Galaxy, are ill-known, and often not fully accounted for when analyzing the phenomenology of particle physics models. In this paper we present a systematic, quantitative estimate of how astrophysical uncertainties on Galactic quantities (such as the local galactocentric distance, circular velocity, or the morphology of the stellar disk and bulge) propagate to the determination of the phenomenology of particle physics models, thus eventually affecting the determination of new physics parameters. We present results in the context of two specific extensions of the Standard Model (the Singlet Scalar and the Inert Doublet) that we adopt as case studies for their simplicity in illustrating the magnitude and impact of such uncertainties on the parameter space of the particle physics model itself. Our findings point toward very relevant effects of current Galactic uncertainties on the determination of particle physics parameters, and urge a systematic estimate of such uncertainties in more complex scenarios, in order to achieve constraints on the determination of new physics that realistically include all known uncertainties.

  1. Baryon Acoustic Oscillations reconstruction with pixels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Obuljen, Andrej [SISSA—International School for Advanced Studies, Via Bonomea 265, 34136 Trieste (Italy); Villaescusa-Navarro, Francisco [Center for Computational Astrophysics, 160 5th Ave, New York, NY, 10010 (United States); Castorina, Emanuele [Berkeley Center for Cosmological Physics, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States); Viel, Matteo, E-mail: aobuljen@sissa.it, E-mail: fvillaescusa@simonsfoundation.org, E-mail: ecastorina@berkeley.edu, E-mail: viel@oats.inaf.it [INAF, Osservatorio Astronomico di Trieste, via Tiepolo 11, I-34131 Trieste (Italy)

    2017-09-01

    Gravitational non-linear evolution induces a shift in the position of the baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) peak together with a damping and broadening of its shape that bias and degrades the accuracy with which the position of the peak can be determined. BAO reconstruction is a technique developed to undo part of the effect of non-linearities. We present and analyse a reconstruction method that consists of displacing pixels instead of galaxies and whose implementation is easier than the standard reconstruction method. We show that this method is equivalent to the standard reconstruction technique in the limit where the number of pixels becomes very large. This method is particularly useful in surveys where individual galaxies are not resolved, as in 21cm intensity mapping observations. We validate this method by reconstructing mock pixelated maps, that we build from the distribution of matter and halos in real- and redshift-space, from a large set of numerical simulations. We find that this method is able to decrease the uncertainty in the BAO peak position by 30-50% over the typical angular resolution scales of 21 cm intensity mapping experiments.

  2. Dynamic dual-tracer PET reconstruction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Fei; Liu, Huafeng; Jian, Yiqiang; Shi, Pengcheng

    2009-01-01

    Although of important medical implications, simultaneous dual-tracer positron emission tomography reconstruction remains a challenging problem, primarily because the photon measurements from dual tracers are overlapped. In this paper, we propose a simultaneous dynamic dual-tracer reconstruction of tissue activity maps based on guidance from tracer kinetics. The dual-tracer reconstruction problem is formulated in a state-space representation, where parallel compartment models serve as continuous-time system equation describing the tracer kinetic processes of dual tracers, and the imaging data is expressed as discrete sampling of the system states in measurement equation. The image reconstruction problem has therefore become a state estimation problem in a continuous-discrete hybrid paradigm, and H infinity filtering is adopted as the estimation strategy. As H infinity filtering makes no assumptions on the system and measurement statistics, robust reconstruction results can be obtained for the dual-tracer PET imaging system where the statistical properties of measurement data and system uncertainty are not available a priori, even when there are disturbances in the kinetic parameters. Experimental results on digital phantoms, Monte Carlo simulations and physical phantoms have demonstrated the superior performance.

  3. Hanford environmental dose reconstruction project - an overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shipler, D.B.; Napier, B.A.; Farris, W.T.

    1996-01-01

    The Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project was initiated because of public interest in the historical releases of radioactive materials from the Hanford Site, located in southcentral Washington State. By 1986, over 38,000 pages of environmental monitoring documentation from the early years of Hanford operations had been released. Special committees reviewing the documents recommended initiation of the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project, which began in October 1987, and is conducted by Battelle, Pacific Northwest Laboratories. The technical approach taken was to reconstruct releases of radioactive materials based on facility operating information; develop and/or adapt transport, pathway, and dose models and computer codes; reconstruct environmental, meterological, and hydrological monitoring information; reconstruct demographic, agricultural, and lifestyle characteristics; apply statistical methods to all forms of uncertainty in the information, parameters, and models; and perform scientific investigation that were technically defensible. The geographic area for the study includes ∼2 x 10 5 km 2 (75,000 mi 2 ) in eastern Washington, western Idaho, and northeastern Oregon (essentially the Mid-columbia Basin of the Pacific Northwest). Three exposure pathways were considered: the atmosphere, the Columbia River, and ground water

  4. Continuous Nondestructive Monitoring Method Using the Reconstructed Three-Dimensional Conductivity Images via GREIT for Tissue Engineering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sujin Ahn

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A continuous Nondestructive monitoring method is required to apply proper feedback controls during tissue regeneration. Conductivity is one of valuable information to assess the physiological function and structural formation of regenerated tissues or cultured cells. However, conductivity imaging methods suffered from inherited ill-posed characteristics in image reconstruction, unknown boundary geometry, uncertainty in electrode position, and systematic artifacts. In order to overcome the limitation of microscopic electrical impedance tomography (micro-EIT, we applied a 3D-specific container with a fixed boundary geometry and electrode configuration to maximize the performance of Graz consensus reconstruction algorithm for EIT (GREIT. The separation of driving and sensing electrodes allows us to simplify the hardware complexity and obtain higher measurement accuracy from a large number of small sensing electrodes. We investigated the applicability of the GREIT to 3D micro-EIT images via numerical simulations and large-scale phantom experiments. We could reconstruct multiple objects regardless of the location. The resolution was 5 mm3 with 30 dB SNR and the position error was less than 2.54 mm. This shows that the new micro-EIT system integrated with GREIT is robust with the intended resolution. With further refinement and scaling down to a microscale container, it may be a continuous nondestructive monitoring tool for tissue engineering applications.

  5. Assessing uncertainties in crop and pasture ensemble model simulations of productivity and N2O emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simulation models are extensively used to predict agricultural productivity and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, the uncertainties of (reduced) model ensemble simulations have not been assessed systematically for variables affecting food security and climate change mitigation, within multisp...

  6. Investment, regulation, and uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smyth, Stuart J; McDonald, Jillian; Falck-Zepeda, Jose

    2014-01-01

    As with any technological innovation, time refines the technology, improving upon the original version of the innovative product. The initial GM crops had single traits for either herbicide tolerance or insect resistance. Current varieties have both of these traits stacked together and in many cases other abiotic and biotic traits have also been stacked. This innovation requires investment. While this is relatively straight forward, certain conditions need to exist such that investments can be facilitated. The principle requirement for investment is that regulatory frameworks render consistent and timely decisions. If the certainty of regulatory outcomes weakens, the potential for changes in investment patterns increases.   This article provides a summary background to the leading plant breeding technologies that are either currently being used to develop new crop varieties or are in the pipeline to be applied to plant breeding within the next few years. Challenges for existing regulatory systems are highlighted. Utilizing an option value approach from investment literature, an assessment of uncertainty regarding the regulatory approval for these varying techniques is undertaken. This research highlights which technology development options have the greatest degree of uncertainty and hence, which ones might be expected to see an investment decline. PMID:24499745

  7. Probabilistic Mass Growth Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plumer, Eric; Elliott, Darren

    2013-01-01

    Mass has been widely used as a variable input parameter for Cost Estimating Relationships (CER) for space systems. As these space systems progress from early concept studies and drawing boards to the launch pad, their masses tend to grow substantially, hence adversely affecting a primary input to most modeling CERs. Modeling and predicting mass uncertainty, based on historical and analogous data, is therefore critical and is an integral part of modeling cost risk. This paper presents the results of a NASA on-going effort to publish mass growth datasheet for adjusting single-point Technical Baseline Estimates (TBE) of masses of space instruments as well as spacecraft, for both earth orbiting and deep space missions at various stages of a project's lifecycle. This paper will also discusses the long term strategy of NASA Headquarters in publishing similar results, using a variety of cost driving metrics, on an annual basis. This paper provides quantitative results that show decreasing mass growth uncertainties as mass estimate maturity increases. This paper's analysis is based on historical data obtained from the NASA Cost Analysis Data Requirements (CADRe) database.

  8. Embracing uncertainty in applied ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milner-Gulland, E J; Shea, K

    2017-12-01

    Applied ecologists often face uncertainty that hinders effective decision-making.Common traps that may catch the unwary are: ignoring uncertainty, acknowledging uncertainty but ploughing on, focussing on trivial uncertainties, believing your models, and unclear objectives.We integrate research insights and examples from a wide range of applied ecological fields to illustrate advances that are generally underused, but could facilitate ecologists' ability to plan and execute research to support management.Recommended approaches to avoid uncertainty traps are: embracing models, using decision theory, using models more effectively, thinking experimentally, and being realistic about uncertainty. Synthesis and applications . Applied ecologists can become more effective at informing management by using approaches that explicitly take account of uncertainty.

  9. Oil price uncertainty in Canada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elder, John [Department of Finance and Real Estate, 1272 Campus Delivery, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523 (United States); Serletis, Apostolos [Department of Economics, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta (Canada)

    2009-11-15

    Bernanke [Bernanke, Ben S. Irreversibility, uncertainty, and cyclical investment. Quarterly Journal of Economics 98 (1983), 85-106.] shows how uncertainty about energy prices may induce optimizing firms to postpone investment decisions, thereby leading to a decline in aggregate output. Elder and Serletis [Elder, John and Serletis, Apostolos. Oil price uncertainty.] find empirical evidence that uncertainty about oil prices has tended to depress investment in the United States. In this paper we assess the robustness of these results by investigating the effects of oil price uncertainty in Canada. Our results are remarkably similar to existing results for the United States, providing additional evidence that uncertainty about oil prices may provide another explanation for why the sharp oil price declines of 1985 failed to produce rapid output growth. Impulse-response analysis suggests that uncertainty about oil prices may tend to reinforce the negative response of output to positive oil shocks. (author)

  10. Quantification of margins and uncertainties: Alternative representations of epistemic uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helton, Jon C.; Johnson, Jay D.

    2011-01-01

    In 2001, the National Nuclear Security Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy in conjunction with the national security laboratories (i.e., Los Alamos National Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and Sandia National Laboratories) initiated development of a process designated Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties (QMU) for the use of risk assessment methodologies in the certification of the reliability and safety of the nation's nuclear weapons stockpile. A previous presentation, 'Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties: Conceptual and Computational Basis,' describes the basic ideas that underlie QMU and illustrates these ideas with two notional examples that employ probability for the representation of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. The current presentation introduces and illustrates the use of interval analysis, possibility theory and evidence theory as alternatives to the use of probability theory for the representation of epistemic uncertainty in QMU-type analyses. The following topics are considered: the mathematical structure of alternative representations of uncertainty, alternative representations of epistemic uncertainty in QMU analyses involving only epistemic uncertainty, and alternative representations of epistemic uncertainty in QMU analyses involving a separation of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. Analyses involving interval analysis, possibility theory and evidence theory are illustrated with the same two notional examples used in the presentation indicated above to illustrate the use of probability to represent aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in QMU analyses.

  11. Reconstruction of individual doses in population evacuated from Pripyat based on imitation stochastic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chumak, V.V.

    1998-01-01

    Imitation stochastic approach to the reconstruction of individual doses of a large group of irradiated population (12632 persons) was used for the first time,evaluation of uncertainty of the obtained results was made. When the error of the dose reconstruction is small, the method is reliable providing a high accuracy of the results

  12. Performance of muon reconstruction including Alignment Position Errors for 2016 Collision Data

    CERN Document Server

    CMS Collaboration

    2016-01-01

    From 2016 Run muon reconstruction is using non-zero Alignment Position Errors to account for the residual uncertainties of muon chambers' positions. Significant improvements are obtained in particular for the startup phase after opening/closing the muon detector. Performance results are presented for real data and MC simulations, related to both the offline reconstruction and the High-Level Trigger.

  13. Uncertainties, confidence ellipsoids and security polytopes in LSA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grabe, Michael

    1992-05-01

    For a given error model, the uncertainties of and the couplings between parameters estimated by a least-squares adjustment (LSA) are formalized. The error model is restricted to normally distributed random errors and to systematic errors that remain constant during measurement, but whose magnitudes and signs are unknown. An outline of the associated, new formalism for estimating measurement uncertainties is sketched as regards its function as a measure of the consistency between theory and experiment. The couplings due to random errors lead to ellipsoids stemming from singular linear mappings of Hotelling's ellipsoids. Those introduced by systematic errors create convex polytopes, so-called security polytopes, which are singular linear mappings of hyperblocks caused by a ldworst-case treatment” of systematic errors.

  14. Bayesian analysis for uncertainty estimation of a canopy transpiration model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samanta, S.; Mackay, D. S.; Clayton, M. K.; Kruger, E. L.; Ewers, B. E.

    2007-04-01

    A Bayesian approach was used to fit a conceptual transpiration model to half-hourly transpiration rates for a sugar maple (Acer saccharum) stand collected over a 5-month period and probabilistically estimate its parameter and prediction uncertainties. The model used the Penman-Monteith equation with the Jarvis model for canopy conductance. This deterministic model was extended by adding a normally distributed error term. This extension enabled using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations to sample the posterior parameter distributions. The residuals revealed approximate conformance to the assumption of normally distributed errors. However, minor systematic structures in the residuals at fine timescales suggested model changes that would potentially improve the modeling of transpiration. Results also indicated considerable uncertainties in the parameter and transpiration estimates. This simple methodology of uncertainty analysis would facilitate the deductive step during the development cycle of deterministic conceptual models by accounting for these uncertainties while drawing inferences from data.

  15. Leaf area index uncertainty estimates for model-data fusion applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew D. Richardson; D. Bryan Dail; D.Y. Hollinger

    2011-01-01

    Estimates of data uncertainties are required to integrate different observational data streams as model constraints using model-data fusion. We describe an approach with which random and systematic uncertainties in optical measurements of leaf area index [LAI] can be quantified. We use data from a measurement campaign at the spruce-dominated Howland Forest AmeriFlux...

  16. Evaluation of uncertainty sources and propagation from irradiance sensors to PV yield

    OpenAIRE

    Mariottini, Francesco; Gottschalg, Ralph; Betts, Tom; Zhu, Jiang

    2018-01-01

    This work quantifies the uncertainties of a pyranometer. Sensitivity to errors is analysed regarding the effects generated by adopting different time resolutions. Estimation of irradiance measurand and error is extended throughout an annual data set. This study represents an attempt to provide a more exhaustive overview of both systematic (i.e. physical) and random uncertainties in the evaluation of pyranometer measurements. Starting from expanded uncertainty in a monitored ...

  17. Jet Energy Scale Uncertainties in ATLAS

    CERN Document Server

    Barillari, T; The ATLAS collaboration

    2012-01-01

    About one year after the first proton-proton collisions at a centre of mass energy of $sqrt(s) = 7,TeV$, the ATLAS experiment has achieved an accuracy of the jet energy measurement between $2-4%$ for jet transverse momenta from $20,GeV$ to $2,TeV$ in the pseudorapidity range up to $4.5$. The jet energy scale uncertainty is derived from in-situ single hadron response measurement along with systematic variations in the Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, the transverse momentum balance between a central and a forward jet in events with only two jets at high transverse momentum is used to set the jet energy uncertainty in the forward region. The obtained uncertainty is confirmed by in-situ measurements exploiting the transverse momentum balance between a jet and a well measured reference object like the photon transverse momentum in photon-jet events. Jets in the TeV-energy regime were tested using a system of well calibrated jets at low transverse momenta against a high-pt jet. Preliminary results from the 201...

  18. Heisenberg's principle of uncertainty and the uncertainty relations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Redei, Miklos

    1987-01-01

    The usual verbal form of the Heisenberg uncertainty principle and the usual mathematical formulation (the so-called uncertainty theorem) are not equivalent. The meaning of the concept 'uncertainty' is not unambiguous and different interpretations are used in the literature. Recently a renewed interest has appeared to reinterpret and reformulate the precise meaning of Heisenberg's principle and to find adequate mathematical form. The suggested new theorems are surveyed and critically analyzed. (D.Gy.) 20 refs

  19. Uncertainty as Certaint

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petzinger, Tom

    I am trying to make money in the biotech industry from complexity science. And I am doing it with inspiration that I picked up on the edge of Appalachia spending time with June Holley and ACEnet when I was a Wall Street Journal reporter. I took some of those ideas to Pittsburgh, in biotechnology, in a completely private setting with an economic development focus, but also with a mission t o return profit to private capital. And we are doing that. I submit as a hypothesis, something we are figuring out in the post- industrial era, that business evolves. It is not the definition of business, but business critically involves the design of systems in which uncertainty is treated as a certainty. That is what I have seen and what I have tried to put into practice.

  20. Orientation and uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peters, H.P.; Hennen, L.

    1990-01-01

    The authors report on the results of three representative surveys that made a closer inquiry into perceptions and valuations of information and information sources concering Chernobyl. If turns out that the information sources are generally considered little trustworthy. This was generally attributable to the interpretation of the events being tied to attitudes in the atmonic energy issue. The greatest credit was given to television broadcasting. The authors summarize their discourse as follows: There is good reason to interpret the widespread uncertainty after Chernobyl as proof of the fact that large parts of the population are prepared and willing to assume a critical stance towards information and prefer to draw their information from various sources representing different positions. (orig.) [de

  1. DOD ELAP Lab Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-01

    ISO / IEC   17025  Inspection Bodies – ISO / IEC  17020  RMPs – ISO  Guide 34 (Reference...certify to :  ISO  9001 (QMS),  ISO  14001 (EMS),   TS 16949 (US Automotive)  etc. 2 3 DoD QSM 4.2 standard   ISO / IEC   17025 :2005  Each has uncertainty...IPV6, NLLAP, NEFAP  TRAINING Programs  Certification Bodies – ISO / IEC  17021  Accreditation for  Management System 

  2. Traceability and Measurement Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tosello, Guido; De Chiffre, Leonardo

    2004-01-01

    . The project partnership aims (composed by 7 partners in 5 countries, thus covering a real European spread in high tech production technology) to develop and implement an advanced e-learning system that integrates contributions from quite different disciplines into a user-centred approach that strictly....... Machine tool testing 9. The role of manufacturing metrology for QM 10. Inspection planning 11. Quality management of measurements incl. Documentation 12. Advanced manufacturing measurement technology The present report (which represents the section 2 - Traceability and Measurement Uncertainty – of the e-learning......This report is made as a part of the project ‘Metro-E-Learn: European e-Learning in Manufacturing Metrology’, an EU project under the program SOCRATES MINERVA (ODL and ICT in Education), Contract No: 101434-CP-1-2002-1-DE-MINERVA, coordinated by Friedrich-Alexander-University Erlangen...

  3. Decision making under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cyert, R.M.

    1989-01-01

    This paper reports on ways of improving the reliability of products and systems in this country if we are to survive as a first-rate industrial power. The use of statistical techniques have, since the 1920s, been viewed as one of the methods for testing quality and estimating the level of quality in a universe of output. Statistical quality control is not relevant, generally, to improving systems in an industry like yours, but certainly the use of probability concepts is of significance. In addition, when it is recognized that part of the problem involves making decisions under uncertainty, it becomes clear that techniques such as sequential decision making and Bayesian analysis become major methodological approaches that must be utilized

  4. Sustainability and uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Karsten Klint

    2007-01-01

    The widely used concept of sustainability is seldom precisely defined, and its clarification involves making up one's mind about a range of difficult questions. One line of research (bottom-up) takes sustaining a system over time as its starting point and then infers prescriptions from...... this requirement. Another line (top-down) takes an economical interpretation of the Brundtland Commission's suggestion that the present generation's needsatisfaction should not compromise the need-satisfaction of future generations as its starting point. It then measures sustainability at the level of society...... a clarified ethical goal, disagreements can arise. At present we do not know what substitutions will be possible in the future. This uncertainty clearly affects the prescriptions that follow from the measure of sustainability. Consequently, decisions about how to make future agriculture sustainable...

  5. Impact of dose-distribution uncertainties on rectal ntcp modeling I: Uncertainty estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fenwick, John D.; Nahum, Alan E.

    2001-01-01

    A trial of nonescalated conformal versus conventional radiotherapy treatment of prostate cancer has been carried out at the Royal Marsden NHS Trust (RMH) and Institute of Cancer Research (ICR), demonstrating a significant reduction in the rate of rectal bleeding reported for patients treated using the conformal technique. The relationship between planned rectal dose-distributions and incidences of bleeding has been analyzed, showing that the rate of bleeding falls significantly as the extent of the rectal wall receiving a planned dose-level of more than 57 Gy is reduced. Dose-distributions delivered to the rectal wall over the course of radiotherapy treatment inevitably differ from planned distributions, due to sources of uncertainty such as patient setup error, rectal wall movement and variation in the absolute rectal wall surface area. In this paper estimates of the differences between planned and treated rectal dose-distribution parameters are obtained for the RMH/ICR nonescalated conformal technique, working from a distribution of setup errors observed during the RMH/ICR trial, movement data supplied by Lebesque and colleagues derived from repeat CT scans, and estimates of rectal circumference variations extracted from the literature. Setup errors and wall movement are found to cause only limited systematic differences between mean treated and planned rectal dose-distribution parameter values, but introduce considerable uncertainties into the treated values of some dose-distribution parameters: setup errors lead to 22% and 9% relative uncertainties in the highly dosed fraction of the rectal wall and the wall average dose, respectively, with wall movement leading to 21% and 9% relative uncertainties. Estimates obtained from the literature of the uncertainty in the absolute surface area of the distensible rectal wall are of the order of 13%-18%. In a subsequent paper the impact of these uncertainties on analyses of the relationship between incidences of bleeding

  6. An uncertainty inventory demonstration - a primary step in uncertainty quantification

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Langenbrunner, James R. [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Booker, Jane M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hemez, Francois M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Salazar, Issac F [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Ross, Timothy J [UNM

    2009-01-01

    Tools, methods, and theories for assessing and quantifying uncertainties vary by application. Uncertainty quantification tasks have unique desiderata and circumstances. To realistically assess uncertainty requires the engineer/scientist to specify mathematical models, the physical phenomena of interest, and the theory or framework for assessments. For example, Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) specifically identifies uncertainties using probability theory, and therefore, PRA's lack formal procedures for quantifying uncertainties that are not probabilistic. The Phenomena Identification and Ranking Technique (PIRT) proceeds by ranking phenomena using scoring criteria that results in linguistic descriptors, such as importance ranked with words, 'High/Medium/Low.' The use of words allows PIRT to be flexible, but the analysis may then be difficult to combine with other uncertainty theories. We propose that a necessary step for the development of a procedure or protocol for uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the application of an Uncertainty Inventory. An Uncertainty Inventory should be considered and performed in the earliest stages of UQ.

  7. Structural Uncertainty in Antarctic sea ice simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, D. P.

    2016-12-01

    The inability of the vast majority of historical climate model simulations to reproduce the observed increase in Antarctic sea ice has motivated many studies about the quality of the observational record, the role of natural variability versus forced changes, and the possibility of missing or inadequate forcings in the models (such as freshwater discharge from thinning ice shelves or an inadequate magnitude of stratospheric ozone depletion). In this presentation I will highlight another source of uncertainty that has received comparatively little attention: Structural uncertainty, that is, the systematic uncertainty in simulated sea ice trends that arises from model physics and mean-state biases. Using two large ensembles of experiments from the Community Earth System Model (CESM), I will show that the model is predisposed towards producing negative Antarctic sea ice trends during 1979-present, and that this outcome is not simply because the model's decadal variability is out-of-synch with that in nature. In the "Tropical Pacific Pacemaker" ensemble, in which observed tropical Pacific SST anomalies are prescribed, the model produces very realistic atmospheric circulation trends over the Southern Ocean, yet the sea ice trend is negative in every ensemble member. However, if the ensemble-mean trend (commonly interpreted as the forced response) is removed, some ensemble members show a sea ice increase that is very similar to the observed. While this results does confirm the important role of natural variability, it also suggests a strong bias in the forced response. I will discuss the reasons for this systematic bias and explore possible remedies. This an important problem to solve because projections of 21st -Century changes in the Antarctic climate system (including ice sheet surface mass balance changes and related changes in the sea level budget) have a strong dependence on the mean state of and changes in the Antarctic sea ice cover. This problem is not unique to

  8. Essays on model uncertainty in financial models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, Jing

    2018-01-01

    This dissertation studies model uncertainty, particularly in financial models. It consists of two empirical chapters and one theoretical chapter. The first empirical chapter (Chapter 2) classifies model uncertainty into parameter uncertainty and misspecification uncertainty. It investigates the

  9. Uncertainty and sensitivity studies supporting the interpretation of the results of TVO I/II PRA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmberg, J.

    1992-01-01

    A comprehensive Level 1 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has been performed for the TVO I/II nuclear power units. As a part of the PRA project, uncertainties of risk models and methods were systematically studied in order to describe them and to demonstrate their impact by way of results. The uncertainty study was divided into two phases: a qualitative and a quantitative study. The qualitative study contained identification of uncertainties and qualitative assessments of their importance. The PRA was introduced, and identified assumptions and uncertainties behind the models were documented. The most significant uncertainties were selected by importance measures or other judgements for further quantitative studies. The quantitative study included sensitivity studies and propagation of uncertainty ranges. In the sensitivity studies uncertain assumptions or parameters were varied in order to illustrate the sensitivity of the models. The propagation of the uncertainty ranges demonstrated the impact of the statistical uncertainties of the parameter values. The Monte Carlo method was used as a propagation method. The most significant uncertainties were those involved in modelling human interactions, dependences and common cause failures (CCFs), loss of coolant accident (LOCA) frequencies and pressure suppression. The qualitative mapping out of the uncertainty factors turned out to be useful in planning quantitative studies. It also served as internal review of the assumptions made in the PRA. The sensitivity studies were perhaps the most advantageous part of the quantitative study because they allowed individual analyses of the significance of uncertainty sources identified. The uncertainty study was found reasonable in systematically and critically assessing uncertainties in a risk analysis. The usefulness of this study depends on the decision maker (power company) since uncertainty studies are primarily carried out to support decision making when uncertainties are

  10. A new uncertainty importance measure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borgonovo, E.

    2007-01-01

    Uncertainty in parameters is present in many risk assessment problems and leads to uncertainty in model predictions. In this work, we introduce a global sensitivity indicator which looks at the influence of input uncertainty on the entire output distribution without reference to a specific moment of the output (moment independence) and which can be defined also in the presence of correlations among the parameters. We discuss its mathematical properties and highlight the differences between the present indicator, variance-based uncertainty importance measures and a moment independent sensitivity indicator previously introduced in the literature. Numerical results are discussed with application to the probabilistic risk assessment model on which Iman [A matrix-based approach to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for fault trees. Risk Anal 1987;7(1):22-33] first introduced uncertainty importance measures

  11. Uncertainty Management and Sensitivity Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosenbaum, Ralph K.; Georgiadis, Stylianos; Fantke, Peter

    2018-01-01

    Uncertainty is always there and LCA is no exception to that. The presence of uncertainties of different types and from numerous sources in LCA results is a fact, but managing them allows to quantify and improve the precision of a study and the robustness of its conclusions. LCA practice sometimes...... suffers from an imbalanced perception of uncertainties, justifying modelling choices and omissions. Identifying prevalent misconceptions around uncertainties in LCA is a central goal of this chapter, aiming to establish a positive approach focusing on the advantages of uncertainty management. The main...... objectives of this chapter are to learn how to deal with uncertainty in the context of LCA, how to quantify it, interpret and use it, and how to communicate it. The subject is approached more holistically than just focusing on relevant statistical methods or purely mathematical aspects. This chapter...

  12. Additivity of entropic uncertainty relations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    René Schwonnek

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available We consider the uncertainty between two pairs of local projective measurements performed on a multipartite system. We show that the optimal bound in any linear uncertainty relation, formulated in terms of the Shannon entropy, is additive. This directly implies, against naive intuition, that the minimal entropic uncertainty can always be realized by fully separable states. Hence, in contradiction to proposals by other authors, no entanglement witness can be constructed solely by comparing the attainable uncertainties of entangled and separable states. However, our result gives rise to a huge simplification for computing global uncertainty bounds as they now can be deduced from local ones. Furthermore, we provide the natural generalization of the Maassen and Uffink inequality for linear uncertainty relations with arbitrary positive coefficients.

  13. Uncertainties of Molecular Structural Parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Császár, Attila G.

    2014-01-01

    performed. Simply, there are significant disagreements between the same bond lengths measured by different techniques. These disagreements are, however, systematic and can be computed via techniques of quantum chemistry which deal not only with the motions of the electrons (electronic structure theory) but also with the often large amplitude motions of the nuclei. As to the relevant quantum chemical computations, since about 1970 electronic structure theory has become able to make quantitative predictions and thus challenge (or even overrule) many experiments. Nevertheless, quantitative agreement of quantum chemical results with experiment can only be expected when the motions of the atoms are also considered. In the fourth age of quantum chemistry we are living in an era where one can bridge quantitatively the gap between ‘effective’, experimental and ‘equilibrium’, computed structures at even elevated temperatures of interest thus minimizing any real uncertainties of structural parameters. The connections mentioned are extremely important as they help to understand the true uncertainty of measured structural parameters. Traditionally it is microwave (MW) and millimeterwave (MMW) spectroscopy, as well as gas-phase electron diffraction (GED), which yielded the most accurate structural parameters of molecules. The accuracy of the MW and GED experiments approached about 0.001Å and 0.1º under ideal circumstances, worse, sometimes considerably worse, in less than ideal and much more often encountered situations. Quantum chemistry can define both highly accurate equilibrium (so-called Born-Oppenheimer, r_e"B"O, and semiexperimental, r_e"S"E) structures and, via detailed investigation of molecular motions, accurate temperature-dependent rovibrationally averaged structures. Determining structures is still a rich field for research, understanding the measured or computed uncertainties of structures and structural parameters is still a challenge but there are firm and well

  14. Image Reconstruction. Chapter 13

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nuyts, J. [Department of Nuclear Medicine and Medical Imaging Research Center, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Leuven (Belgium); Matej, S. [Medical Image Processing Group, Department of Radiology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA (United States)

    2014-12-15

    This chapter discusses how 2‑D or 3‑D images of tracer distribution can be reconstructed from a series of so-called projection images acquired with a gamma camera or a positron emission tomography (PET) system [13.1]. This is often called an ‘inverse problem’. The reconstruction is the inverse of the acquisition. The reconstruction is called an inverse problem because making software to compute the true tracer distribution from the acquired data turns out to be more difficult than the ‘forward’ direction, i.e. making software to simulate the acquisition. There are basically two approaches to image reconstruction: analytical reconstruction and iterative reconstruction. The analytical approach is based on mathematical inversion, yielding efficient, non-iterative reconstruction algorithms. In the iterative approach, the reconstruction problem is reduced to computing a finite number of image values from a finite number of measurements. That simplification enables the use of iterative instead of mathematical inversion. Iterative inversion tends to require more computer power, but it can cope with more complex (and hopefully more accurate) models of the acquisition process.

  15. Update on orbital reconstruction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chien-Tzung; Chen, Yu-Ray

    2010-08-01

    Orbital trauma is common and frequently complicated by ocular injuries. The recent literature on orbital fracture is analyzed with emphasis on epidemiological data assessment, surgical timing, method of approach and reconstruction materials. Computed tomographic (CT) scan has become a routine evaluation tool for orbital trauma, and mobile CT can be applied intraoperatively if necessary. Concomitant serious ocular injury should be carefully evaluated preoperatively. Patients presenting with nonresolving oculocardiac reflex, 'white-eyed' blowout fracture, or diplopia with a positive forced duction test and CT evidence of orbital tissue entrapment require early surgical repair. Otherwise, enophthalmos can be corrected by late surgery with a similar outcome to early surgery. The use of an endoscope-assisted approach for orbital reconstruction continues to grow, offering an alternative method. Advances in alloplastic materials have improved surgical outcome and shortened operating time. In this review of modern orbital reconstruction, several controversial issues such as surgical indication, surgical timing, method of approach and choice of reconstruction material are discussed. Preoperative fine-cut CT image and thorough ophthalmologic examination are key elements to determine surgical indications. The choice of surgical approach and reconstruction materials much depends on the surgeon's experience and the reconstruction area. Prefabricated alloplastic implants together with image software and stereolithographic models are significant advances that help to more accurately reconstruct the traumatized orbit. The recent evolution of orbit reconstruction improves functional and aesthetic results and minimizes surgical complications.

  16. Decommissioning funding: ethics, implementation, uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    This status report on Decommissioning Funding: Ethics, Implementation, Uncertainties also draws on the experience of the NEA Working Party on Decommissioning and Dismantling (WPDD). The report offers, in a concise form, an overview of relevant considerations on decommissioning funding mechanisms with regard to ethics, implementation and uncertainties. Underlying ethical principles found in international agreements are identified, and factors influencing the accumulation and management of funds for decommissioning nuclear facilities are discussed together with the main sources of uncertainties of funding systems. (authors)

  17. Chemical model reduction under uncertainty

    KAUST Repository

    Najm, Habib; Galassi, R. Malpica; Valorani, M.

    2016-01-01

    We outline a strategy for chemical kinetic model reduction under uncertainty. We present highlights of our existing deterministic model reduction strategy, and describe the extension of the formulation to include parametric uncertainty in the detailed mechanism. We discuss the utility of this construction, as applied to hydrocarbon fuel-air kinetics, and the associated use of uncertainty-aware measures of error between predictions from detailed and simplified models.

  18. Chemical model reduction under uncertainty

    KAUST Repository

    Najm, Habib

    2016-01-05

    We outline a strategy for chemical kinetic model reduction under uncertainty. We present highlights of our existing deterministic model reduction strategy, and describe the extension of the formulation to include parametric uncertainty in the detailed mechanism. We discuss the utility of this construction, as applied to hydrocarbon fuel-air kinetics, and the associated use of uncertainty-aware measures of error between predictions from detailed and simplified models.

  19. The Uncertainty of Measurement Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ambrus, A. [Hungarian Food Safety Office, Budapest (Hungary)

    2009-07-15

    Factors affecting the uncertainty of measurement are explained, basic statistical formulae given, and the theoretical concept explained in the context of pesticide formulation analysis. Practical guidance is provided on how to determine individual uncertainty components within an analytical procedure. An extended and comprehensive table containing the relevant mathematical/statistical expressions elucidates the relevant underlying principles. Appendix I provides a practical elaborated example on measurement uncertainty estimation, above all utilizing experimental repeatability and reproducibility laboratory data. (author)

  20. Uncertainty analysis of environmental models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monte, L.

    1990-01-01

    In the present paper an evaluation of the output uncertainty of an environmental model for assessing the transfer of 137 Cs and 131 I in the human food chain are carried out on the basis of a statistical analysis of data reported by the literature. The uncertainty analysis offers the oppotunity of obtaining some remarkable information about the uncertainty of models predicting the migration of non radioactive substances in the environment mainly in relation to the dry and wet deposition

  1. A variational study on BRDF reconstruction in a structured light scanner

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannik Boll; Stets, Jonathan Dyssel; Lyngby, Rasmus Ahrenkiel

    2017-01-01

    Time-efficient acquisition of reflectance behavior together with surface geometry is a challenging problem. In this study, we investigate the impact of system parameter uncertainties when incorporating a data-driven BRDF reconstruction approach into the standard pipeline of a structured light...... setup. Results show that while uncertainties in vertex positions and normals have a high impact on the quality of reconstructed BRDFs, object geometry and light source properties have very little influence on the reconstructed BRDFs. With this analysis, practitioners now have insight in the tolerances...... required for accurate BRDF acquisition to work....

  2. A retrospective dosimetry method and its uncertainty analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, L.; Jia, D.; Dai, G.

    2000-01-01

    The main aim of a radiation epidemiological study is to assess the risk of the population exposed to ionizing radiation. The actual work of the assessment may be very difficult because dose information about the population is often indirect and incomplete. It is very important, therefore, to find a way of estimating reasonable and reliable doses of the population by a retrospective method from limited information. In order to provide reasonable dose information for the cohort study of Chinese medical diagnostic X-ray workers, a retrospective dosimetry method was established. In China, a cohort study of more than 27,000 medical diagnostic X-ray workers, with 25,000 controls, has been carried out for about fifteen years in order to assess the risk to an occupationally exposed population. Obviously, a key to the success of the study is to obtain reliable and reasonable results of dose estimation by the dose reconstruction method. Before 1985, there was a lack of information regarding personal dose measured directly; however, we can obtain other indirect information. Examples are information about working loads from the documents of the hospitals, information about operational conditions of the workers of different statuses by a survey of occupational history, and the exposure levels of various working conditions by some simulation methods. The information for estimating organ dose can also be obtained by simulating experiments with a phantom. Based on the information mentioned above, a mathematical model and computerizing system for dose reconstruction of this occupational population was design and developed. Uncertainty analysis very important for dose reconstruction. The sources of uncertainty of our study are coming from two fields. One is coming from the mode of dose reconstruction. Another is coming from the survey of the occupational history. In the result reported, main results of the uncertainty will be presented. In order to control the uncertainty of the

  3. Uncertainty quantification in resonance absorption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, M.M.R.

    2012-01-01

    We assess the uncertainty in the resonance escape probability due to uncertainty in the neutron and radiation line widths for the first 21 resonances in 232 Th as given by . Simulation, quadrature and polynomial chaos methods are used and the resonance data are assumed to obey a beta distribution. We find the uncertainty in the total resonance escape probability to be the equivalent, in reactivity, of 75–130 pcm. Also shown are pdfs of the resonance escape probability for each resonance and the variation of the uncertainty with temperature. The viability of the polynomial chaos expansion method is clearly demonstrated.

  4. Reliability analysis under epistemic uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nannapaneni, Saideep; Mahadevan, Sankaran

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposes a probabilistic framework to include both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty within model-based reliability estimation of engineering systems for individual limit states. Epistemic uncertainty is considered due to both data and model sources. Sparse point and/or interval data regarding the input random variables leads to uncertainty regarding their distribution types, distribution parameters, and correlations; this statistical uncertainty is included in the reliability analysis through a combination of likelihood-based representation, Bayesian hypothesis testing, and Bayesian model averaging techniques. Model errors, which include numerical solution errors and model form errors, are quantified through Gaussian process models and included in the reliability analysis. The probability integral transform is used to develop an auxiliary variable approach that facilitates a single-level representation of both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. This strategy results in an efficient single-loop implementation of Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and FORM/SORM techniques for reliability estimation under both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. Two engineering examples are used to demonstrate the proposed methodology. - Highlights: • Epistemic uncertainty due to data and model included in reliability analysis. • A novel FORM-based approach proposed to include aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. • A single-loop Monte Carlo approach proposed to include both types of uncertainties. • Two engineering examples used for illustration.

  5. Permutationally invariant state reconstruction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moroder, Tobias; Hyllus, Philipp; Tóth, Géza

    2012-01-01

    Feasible tomography schemes for large particle numbers must possess, besides an appropriate data acquisition protocol, an efficient way to reconstruct the density operator from the observed finite data set. Since state reconstruction typically requires the solution of a nonlinear large-scale opti...... optimization, which has clear advantages regarding speed, control and accuracy in comparison to commonly employed numerical routines. First prototype implementations easily allow reconstruction of a state of 20 qubits in a few minutes on a standard computer.......-scale optimization problem, this is a major challenge in the design of scalable tomography schemes. Here we present an efficient state reconstruction scheme for permutationally invariant quantum state tomography. It works for all common state-of-the-art reconstruction principles, including, in particular, maximum...

  6. Supporting Qualified Database for Uncertainty Evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petruzzi, A.; Fiori, F.; Kovtonyuk, A.; Lisovyy, O.; D'Auria, F.

    2013-01-01

    Uncertainty evaluation constitutes a key feature of BEPU (Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty) process. The uncertainty can be the result of a Monte Carlo type analysis involving input uncertainty parameters or the outcome of a process involving the use of experimental data and connected code calculations. Those uncertainty methods are discussed in several papers and guidelines (IAEA-SRS-52, OECD/NEA BEMUSE reports). The present paper aims at discussing the role and the depth of the analysis required for merging from one side suitable experimental data and on the other side qualified code calculation results. This aspect is mostly connected with the second approach for uncertainty mentioned above, but it can be used also in the framework of the first approach. Namely, the paper discusses the features and structure of the database that includes the following kinds of documents: 1. The 'RDS-facility' (Reference Data Set for the selected facility): this includes the description of the facility, the geometrical characterization of any component of the facility, the instrumentations, the data acquisition system, the evaluation of pressure losses, the physical properties of the material and the characterization of pumps, valves and heat losses; 2. The 'RDS-test' (Reference Data Set for the selected test of the facility): this includes the description of the main phenomena investigated during the test, the configuration of the facility for the selected test (possible new evaluation of pressure and heat losses if needed) and the specific boundary and initial conditions; 3. The 'QP' (Qualification Report) of the code calculation results: this includes the description of the nodalization developed following a set of homogeneous techniques, the achievement of the steady state conditions and the qualitative and quantitative analysis of the transient with the characterization of the Relevant Thermal-Hydraulics Aspects (RTA); 4. The EH (Engineering Handbook) of the input nodalization

  7. Supporting qualified database for uncertainty evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Petruzzi, A.; Fiori, F.; Kovtonyuk, A.; D' Auria, F. [Nuclear Research Group of San Piero A Grado, Univ. of Pisa, Via Livornese 1291, 56122 Pisa (Italy)

    2012-07-01

    Uncertainty evaluation constitutes a key feature of BEPU (Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty) process. The uncertainty can be the result of a Monte Carlo type analysis involving input uncertainty parameters or the outcome of a process involving the use of experimental data and connected code calculations. Those uncertainty methods are discussed in several papers and guidelines (IAEA-SRS-52, OECD/NEA BEMUSE reports). The present paper aims at discussing the role and the depth of the analysis required for merging from one side suitable experimental data and on the other side qualified code calculation results. This aspect is mostly connected with the second approach for uncertainty mentioned above, but it can be used also in the framework of the first approach. Namely, the paper discusses the features and structure of the database that includes the following kinds of documents: 1. The' RDS-facility' (Reference Data Set for the selected facility): this includes the description of the facility, the geometrical characterization of any component of the facility, the instrumentations, the data acquisition system, the evaluation of pressure losses, the physical properties of the material and the characterization of pumps, valves and heat losses; 2. The 'RDS-test' (Reference Data Set for the selected test of the facility): this includes the description of the main phenomena investigated during the test, the configuration of the facility for the selected test (possible new evaluation of pressure and heat losses if needed) and the specific boundary and initial conditions; 3. The 'QR' (Qualification Report) of the code calculation results: this includes the description of the nodalization developed following a set of homogeneous techniques, the achievement of the steady state conditions and the qualitative and quantitative analysis of the transient with the characterization of the Relevant Thermal-Hydraulics Aspects (RTA); 4. The EH (Engineering

  8. A comparison of ancestral state reconstruction methods for quantitative characters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royer-Carenzi, Manuela; Didier, Gilles

    2016-09-07

    Choosing an ancestral state reconstruction method among the alternatives available for quantitative characters may be puzzling. We present here a comparison of seven of them, namely the maximum likelihood, restricted maximum likelihood, generalized least squares under Brownian, Brownian-with-trend and Ornstein-Uhlenbeck models, phylogenetic independent contrasts and squared parsimony methods. A review of the relations between these methods shows that the maximum likelihood, the restricted maximum likelihood and the generalized least squares under Brownian model infer the same ancestral states and can only be distinguished by the distributions accounting for the reconstruction uncertainty which they provide. The respective accuracy of the methods is assessed over character evolution simulated under a Brownian motion with (and without) directional or stabilizing selection. We give the general form of ancestral state distributions conditioned on leaf states under the simulation models. Ancestral distributions are used first, to give a theoretical lower bound of the expected reconstruction error, and second, to develop an original evaluation scheme which is more efficient than comparing the reconstructed and the simulated states. Our simulations show that: (i) the distributions of the reconstruction uncertainty provided by the methods generally make sense (some more than others); (ii) it is essential to detect the presence of an evolutionary trend and to choose a reconstruction method accordingly; (iii) all the methods show good performances on characters under stabilizing selection; (iv) without trend or stabilizing selection, the maximum likelihood method is generally the most accurate. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Climate Certainties and Uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morel, Pierre

    2012-01-01

    In issue 380 of Futuribles in December 2011, Antonin Pottier analysed in detail the workings of what is today termed 'climate scepticism' - namely the propensity of certain individuals to contest the reality of climate change on the basis of pseudo-scientific arguments. He emphasized particularly that what fuels the debate on climate change is, largely, the degree of uncertainty inherent in the consequences to be anticipated from observation of the facts, not the description of the facts itself. In his view, the main aim of climate sceptics is to block the political measures for combating climate change. However, since they do not admit to this political posture, they choose instead to deny the scientific reality. This month, Futuribles complements this socio-psychological analysis of climate-sceptical discourse with an - in this case, wholly scientific - analysis of what we know (or do not know) about climate change on our planet. Pierre Morel gives a detailed account of the state of our knowledge in the climate field and what we are able to predict in the medium/long-term. After reminding us of the influence of atmospheric meteorological processes on the climate, he specifies the extent of global warming observed since 1850 and the main origin of that warming, as revealed by the current state of knowledge: the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases. He then describes the changes in meteorological regimes (showing also the limits of climate simulation models), the modifications of hydrological regimes, and also the prospects for rises in sea levels. He also specifies the mechanisms that may potentially amplify all these phenomena and the climate disasters that might ensue. Lastly, he shows what are the scientific data that cannot be disregarded, the consequences of which are now inescapable (melting of the ice-caps, rises in sea level etc.), the only remaining uncertainty in this connection being the date at which these things will happen. 'In this

  10. Uncertainty quantification of CO2 emission reduction for maritime shipping

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuan, Jun; Ng, Szu Hui; Sou, Weng Sut

    2016-01-01

    The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has recently proposed several operational and technical measures to improve shipping efficiency and reduce the greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. The abatement potentials estimated for these measures have been further used by many organizations to project future GHG emission reductions and plot Marginal Abatement Cost Curves (MACC). However, the abatement potentials estimated for many of these measures can be highly uncertain as many of these measures are new, with limited sea trial information. Furthermore, the abatements obtained are highly dependent on ocean conditions, trading routes and sailing patterns. When the estimated abatement potentials are used for projections, these ‘input’ uncertainties are often not clearly displayed or accounted for, which can lead to overly optimistic or pessimistic outlooks. In this paper, we propose a methodology to systematically quantify and account for these input uncertainties on the overall abatement potential forecasts. We further propose improvements to MACCs to better reflect the uncertainties in marginal abatement costs and total emissions. This approach provides a fuller and more accurate picture of abatement forecasts and potential reductions achievable, and will be useful to policy makers and decision makers in the shipping industry to better assess the cost effective measures for CO 2 emission reduction. - Highlights: • We propose a systematic method to quantify uncertainty in emission reduction. • Marginal abatement cost curves are improved to better reflect the uncertainties. • Percentage reduction probability is given to determine emission reduction target. • The methodology is applied to a case study on maritime shipping.

  11. Reviews and syntheses: Revisiting the boron systematics of aragonite and their application to coral calcification

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeCarlo, Thomas M.; Holcomb, Michael; McCulloch, Malcolm T.

    2018-05-01

    The isotopic and elemental systematics of boron in aragonitic coral skeletons have recently been developed as a proxy for the carbonate chemistry of the coral extracellular calcifying fluid. With knowledge of the boron isotopic fractionation in seawater and the B/Ca partition coefficient (KD) between aragonite and seawater, measurements of coral skeleton δ11B and B/Ca can potentially constrain the full carbonate system. Two sets of abiogenic aragonite precipitation experiments designed to quantify KD have recently made possible the application of this proxy system. However, while different KD formulations have been proposed, there has not yet been a comprehensive analysis that considers both experimental datasets and explores the implications for interpreting coral skeletons. Here, we evaluate four potential KD formulations: three previously presented in the literature and one newly developed. We assess how well each formulation reconstructs the known fluid carbonate chemistry from the abiogenic experiments, and we evaluate the implications for deriving the carbonate chemistry of coral calcifying fluid. Three of the KD formulations performed similarly when applied to abiogenic aragonites precipitated from seawater and to coral skeletons. Critically, we find that some uncertainty remains in understanding the mechanism of boron elemental partitioning between aragonite and seawater, and addressing this question should be a target of additional abiogenic precipitation experiments. Despite this, boron systematics can already be applied to quantify the coral calcifying fluid carbonate system, although uncertainties associated with the proxy system should be carefully considered for each application. Finally, we present a user-friendly computer code that calculates coral calcifying fluid carbonate chemistry, including propagation of uncertainties, given inputs of boron systematics measured in coral skeleton.

  12. Total Measurement Uncertainty for the Plutonium Finishing Plant (PFP) Segmented Gamma Scan Assay System

    CERN Document Server

    Fazzari, D M

    2001-01-01

    This report presents the results of an evaluation of the Total Measurement Uncertainty (TMU) for the Canberra manufactured Segmented Gamma Scanner Assay System (SGSAS) as employed at the Hanford Plutonium Finishing Plant (PFP). In this document, TMU embodies the combined uncertainties due to all of the individual random and systematic sources of measurement uncertainty. It includes uncertainties arising from corrections and factors applied to the analysis of transuranic waste to compensate for inhomogeneities and interferences from the waste matrix and radioactive components. These include uncertainty components for any assumptions contained in the calibration of the system or computation of the data. Uncertainties are propagated at 1 sigma. The final total measurement uncertainty value is reported at the 95% confidence level. The SGSAS is a gamma assay system that is used to assay plutonium and uranium waste. The SGSAS system can be used in a stand-alone mode to perform the NDA characterization of a containe...

  13. Technical Note: Probabilistically constraining proxy age–depth models within a Bayesian hierarchical reconstruction model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. P. Werner

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Reconstructions of the late-Holocene climate rely heavily upon proxies that are assumed to be accurately dated by layer counting, such as measurements of tree rings, ice cores, and varved lake sediments. Considerable advances could be achieved if time-uncertain proxies were able to be included within these multiproxy reconstructions, and if time uncertainties were recognized and correctly modeled for proxies commonly treated as free of age model errors. Current approaches for accounting for time uncertainty are generally limited to repeating the reconstruction using each one of an ensemble of age models, thereby inflating the final estimated uncertainty – in effect, each possible age model is given equal weighting. Uncertainties can be reduced by exploiting the inferred space–time covariance structure of the climate to re-weight the possible age models. Here, we demonstrate how Bayesian hierarchical climate reconstruction models can be augmented to account for time-uncertain proxies. Critically, although a priori all age models are given equal probability of being correct, the probabilities associated with the age models are formally updated within the Bayesian framework, thereby reducing uncertainties. Numerical experiments show that updating the age model probabilities decreases uncertainty in the resulting reconstructions, as compared with the current de facto standard of sampling over all age models, provided there is sufficient information from other data sources in the spatial region of the time-uncertain proxy. This approach can readily be generalized to non-layer-counted proxies, such as those derived from marine sediments.

  14. Sketching Uncertainty into Simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribicic, H; Waser, J; Gurbat, R; Sadransky, B; Groller, M E

    2012-12-01

    In a variety of application areas, the use of simulation steering in decision making is limited at best. Research focusing on this problem suggests that most user interfaces are too complex for the end user. Our goal is to let users create and investigate multiple, alternative scenarios without the need for special simulation expertise. To simplify the specification of parameters, we move from a traditional manipulation of numbers to a sketch-based input approach. Users steer both numeric parameters and parameters with a spatial correspondence by sketching a change onto the rendering. Special visualizations provide immediate visual feedback on how the sketches are transformed into boundary conditions of the simulation models. Since uncertainty with respect to many intertwined parameters plays an important role in planning, we also allow the user to intuitively setup complete value ranges, which are then automatically transformed into ensemble simulations. The interface and the underlying system were developed in collaboration with experts in the field of flood management. The real-world data they have provided has allowed us to construct scenarios used to evaluate the system. These were presented to a variety of flood response personnel, and their feedback is discussed in detail in the paper. The interface was found to be intuitive and relevant, although a certain amount of training might be necessary.

  15. Uncertainty vs. Information (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nearing, Grey

    2017-04-01

    Information theory is the branch of logic that describes how rational epistemic states evolve in the presence of empirical data (Knuth, 2005), and any logic of science is incomplete without such a theory. Developing a formal philosophy of science that recognizes this fact results in essentially trivial solutions to several longstanding problems are generally considered intractable, including: • Alleviating the need for any likelihood function or error model. • Derivation of purely logical falsification criteria for hypothesis testing. • Specification of a general quantitative method for process-level model diagnostics. More generally, I make the following arguments: 1. Model evaluation should not proceed by quantifying and/or reducing error or uncertainty, and instead should be approached as a problem of ensuring that our models contain as much information as our experimental data. I propose that the latter is the only question a scientist actually has the ability to ask. 2. Instead of building geophysical models as solutions to differential equations that represent conservation laws, we should build models as maximum entropy distributions constrained by conservation symmetries. This will allow us to derive predictive probabilities directly from first principles. Knuth, K. H. (2005) 'Lattice duality: The origin of probability and entropy', Neurocomputing, 67, pp. 245-274.

  16. Pandemic influenza: certain uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morens, David M.; Taubenberger, Jeffery K.

    2011-01-01

    SUMMARY For at least five centuries, major epidemics and pandemics of influenza have occurred unexpectedly and at irregular intervals. Despite the modern notion that pandemic influenza is a distinct phenomenon obeying such constant (if incompletely understood) rules such as dramatic genetic change, cyclicity, “wave” patterning, virus replacement, and predictable epidemic behavior, much evidence suggests the opposite. Although there is much that we know about pandemic influenza, there appears to be much more that we do not know. Pandemics arise as a result of various genetic mechanisms, have no predictable patterns of mortality among different age groups, and vary greatly in how and when they arise and recur. Some are followed by new pandemics, whereas others fade gradually or abruptly into long-term endemicity. Human influenza pandemics have been caused by viruses that evolved singly or in co-circulation with other pandemic virus descendants and often have involved significant transmission between, or establishment of, viral reservoirs within other animal hosts. In recent decades, pandemic influenza has continued to produce numerous unanticipated events that expose fundamental gaps in scientific knowledge. Influenza pandemics appear to be not a single phenomenon but a heterogeneous collection of viral evolutionary events whose similarities are overshadowed by important differences, the determinants of which remain poorly understood. These uncertainties make it difficult to predict influenza pandemics and, therefore, to adequately plan to prevent them. PMID:21706672

  17. Uncertainty enabled Sensor Observation Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cornford, Dan; Williams, Matthew; Bastin, Lucy

    2010-05-01

    Almost all observations of reality are contaminated with errors, which introduce uncertainties into the actual observation result. Such uncertainty is often held to be a data quality issue, and quantification of this uncertainty is essential for the principled exploitation of the observations. Many existing systems treat data quality in a relatively ad-hoc manner, however if the observation uncertainty is a reliable estimate of the error on the observation with respect to reality then knowledge of this uncertainty enables optimal exploitation of the observations in further processes, or decision making. We would argue that the most natural formalism for expressing uncertainty is Bayesian probability theory. In this work we show how the Open Geospatial Consortium Sensor Observation Service can be implemented to enable the support of explicit uncertainty about observations. We show how the UncertML candidate standard is used to provide a rich and flexible representation of uncertainty in this context. We illustrate this on a data set of user contributed weather data where the INTAMAP interpolation Web Processing Service is used to help estimate the uncertainty on the observations of unknown quality, using observations with known uncertainty properties. We then go on to discuss the implications of uncertainty for a range of existing Open Geospatial Consortium standards including SWE common and Observations and Measurements. We discuss the difficult decisions in the design of the UncertML schema and its relation and usage within existing standards and show various options. We conclude with some indications of the likely future directions for UncertML in the context of Open Geospatial Consortium services.

  18. Track reconstruction for the P2 experiment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tyukin, Alexey [JGU, Mainz (Germany); Collaboration: P2-Collaboration

    2016-07-01

    The P2 experiment at the future MESA accelerator in Mainz will measure elastically scattered electrons from a hydrogen or lead target in order to determine the parity violating asymmetry for different beam polarisations, which is created due to the weak charge of the target. The asymmetry can provide access to the Weinberg angle and the neutron skin of heavy nuclei. These quantities depend heavily on the momentum transfer Q{sup 2}, thus a reconstruction of single electron tracks in an inhomogeneous magnetic field is necessary. For this, the P2 detector will have four tracking planes of thin high voltage monolithic active pixel sensors (HV-MAPS). The scattered electrons propagate through a magnetic field and hit all four planes. In order to fit the hit positions the General Broken Lines method is used. As a fast propagator, a variation of the Runge-Kutta algorithm is applied, which solves the equation of motion in an inhomogeneous magnetic field numerically, such that the final state momentum and scattering angle can be reconstructed. The initial momentum and incident angle can vary strongly due to the thickness of the target, limiting the reconstruction quality. The average single track Q{sup 2} value of 0.006 GeV{sup 2}/c{sup 2} can be reconstructed with about 4 % uncertainty in a first analysis of the Geant4 simulation, leading to a high total precision due to large electron numbers in the experiment.

  19. ["Long-branch Attraction" artifact in phylogenetic reconstruction].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yi-Wei; Yu, Li; Zhang, Ya-Ping

    2007-06-01

    Phylogenetic reconstruction among various organisms not only helps understand their evolutionary history but also reveal several fundamental evolutionary questions. Understanding of the evolutionary relationships among organisms establishes the foundation for the investigations of other biological disciplines. However, almost all the widely used phylogenetic methods have limitations which fail to eliminate systematic errors effectively, preventing the reconstruction of true organismal relationships. "Long-branch Attraction" (LBA) artifact is one of the most disturbing factors in phylogenetic reconstruction. In this review, the conception and analytic method as well as the avoidance strategy of LBA were summarized. In addition, several typical examples were provided. The approach to avoid and resolve LBA artifact has been discussed.

  20. Uncertainty management in integrated modelling, the IMAGE case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van der Sluijs, J.P.

    1995-01-01

    Integrated assessment models of global environmental problems play an increasingly important role in decision making. This use demands a good insight regarding the reliability of these models. In this paper we analyze uncertainty management in the IMAGE-project (Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect). We use a classification scheme comprising type and source of uncertainty. Our analysis shows reliability analysis as main area for improvement. We briefly review a recently developed methodology, NUSAP (Numerical, Unit, Spread, Assessment and Pedigree), that systematically addresses the strength of data in terms of spread, reliability and scientific status (pedigree) of information. This approach is being tested through interviews with model builders. 3 tabs., 20 refs

  1. Efficient reconstruction of contaminant release history

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alezander, Francis [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Anghel, Marian [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Gulbahce, Natali [NON LANL; Tartakovsky, Daniel [NON LANL

    2009-01-01

    We present a generalized hybrid Monte Carlo (GHMC) method for fast, statistically optimal reconstruction of release histories of reactive contaminants. The approach is applicable to large-scale, strongly nonlinear systems with parametric uncertainties and data corrupted by measurement errors. The use of discrete adjoint equations facilitates numerical implementation of GHMC, without putting any restrictions on the degree of nonlinearity of advection-dispersion-reaction equations that are used to described contaminant transport in the subsurface. To demonstrate the salient features of the proposed algorithm, we identify the spatial extent of a distributed source of contamination from concentration measurements of a reactive solute.

  2. Radon measurements: the sources of uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhukovsky, Michael; Onischenko, Alexandra; Bastrikov, Vladislav

    2008-01-01

    Full text: Radon measurements are quite complicated process and the correct estimation of uncertainties is very important. The sources of uncertainties for grab sampling, short term measurements (charcoal canisters), long term measurements (track detectors) and retrospective measurements (surface traps) are analyzed. The main sources of uncertainties for grab sampling measurements are: systematic bias of reference equipment; random Poisson and non-Poisson errors during calibration; random Poisson and non-Poisson errors during measurements. These sources are also common both for short term measurements (charcoal canisters) and long term measurements (track detectors). Usually during the calibration the high radon concentrations are used (1-5 kBq/m 3 ) and the Poisson random error rarely exceed some percents. Nevertheless the dispersion of measured values even during the calibration usually exceeds the Poisson dispersion expected on the basis of counting statistic. The origins of such non-Poisson random errors during calibration are different for different kinds of instrumental measurements. At present not all sources of non-Poisson random errors are trustworthy identified. The initial calibration accuracy of working devices rarely exceeds the value 20%. The real radon concentrations usually are in the range from some tens to some hundreds Becquerel per cubic meter and for low radon levels Poisson random error can reach up to 20%. The random non-Poisson errors and residual systematic biases are depends on the kind of measurement technique and the environmental conditions during radon measurements. For charcoal canisters there are additional sources of the measurement errors due to influence of air humidity and the variations of radon concentration during the canister exposure. The accuracy of long term measurements by track detectors will depend on the quality of chemical etching after exposure and the influence of season radon variations. The main sources of

  3. A commentary on model uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Apostolakis, G.

    1994-01-01

    A framework is proposed for the identification of model and parameter uncertainties in risk assessment models. Two cases are distinguished; in the first case, a set of mutually exclusive and exhaustive hypotheses (models) can be formulated, while, in the second, only one reference model is available. The relevance of this formulation to decision making and the communication of uncertainties is discussed

  4. Mama Software Features: Uncertainty Testing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruggiero, Christy E. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Porter, Reid B. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2014-05-30

    This document reviews how the uncertainty in the calculations is being determined with test image data. The results of this testing give an ‘initial uncertainty’ number than can be used to estimate the ‘back end’ uncertainty in digital image quantification in images. Statisticians are refining these numbers as part of a UQ effort.

  5. Designing for Uncertainty: Three Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Scott

    2007-01-01

    Higher education wishes to get long life and good returns on its investment in learning spaces. Doing this has become difficult because rapid changes in information technology have created fundamental uncertainties about the future in which capital investments must deliver value. Three approaches to designing for this uncertainty are described…

  6. Hybrid spectral CT reconstruction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darin P Clark

    Full Text Available Current photon counting x-ray detector (PCD technology faces limitations associated with spectral fidelity and photon starvation. One strategy for addressing these limitations is to supplement PCD data with high-resolution, low-noise data acquired with an energy-integrating detector (EID. In this work, we propose an iterative, hybrid reconstruction technique which combines the spectral properties of PCD data with the resolution and signal-to-noise characteristics of EID data. Our hybrid reconstruction technique is based on an algebraic model of data fidelity which substitutes the EID data into the data fidelity term associated with the PCD reconstruction, resulting in a joint reconstruction problem. Within the split Bregman framework, these data fidelity constraints are minimized subject to additional constraints on spectral rank and on joint intensity-gradient sparsity measured between the reconstructions of the EID and PCD data. Following a derivation of the proposed technique, we apply it to the reconstruction of a digital phantom which contains realistic concentrations of iodine, barium, and calcium encountered in small-animal micro-CT. The results of this experiment suggest reliable separation and detection of iodine at concentrations ≥ 5 mg/ml and barium at concentrations ≥ 10 mg/ml in 2-mm features for EID and PCD data reconstructed with inherent spatial resolutions of 176 μm and 254 μm, respectively (point spread function, FWHM. Furthermore, hybrid reconstruction is demonstrated to enhance spatial resolution within material decomposition results and to improve low-contrast detectability by as much as 2.6 times relative to reconstruction with PCD data only. The parameters of the simulation experiment are based on an in vivo micro-CT experiment conducted in a mouse model of soft-tissue sarcoma. Material decomposition results produced from this in vivo data demonstrate the feasibility of distinguishing two K-edge contrast agents with

  7. Hybrid spectral CT reconstruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Darin P.

    2017-01-01

    Current photon counting x-ray detector (PCD) technology faces limitations associated with spectral fidelity and photon starvation. One strategy for addressing these limitations is to supplement PCD data with high-resolution, low-noise data acquired with an energy-integrating detector (EID). In this work, we propose an iterative, hybrid reconstruction technique which combines the spectral properties of PCD data with the resolution and signal-to-noise characteristics of EID data. Our hybrid reconstruction technique is based on an algebraic model of data fidelity which substitutes the EID data into the data fidelity term associated with the PCD reconstruction, resulting in a joint reconstruction problem. Within the split Bregman framework, these data fidelity constraints are minimized subject to additional constraints on spectral rank and on joint intensity-gradient sparsity measured between the reconstructions of the EID and PCD data. Following a derivation of the proposed technique, we apply it to the reconstruction of a digital phantom which contains realistic concentrations of iodine, barium, and calcium encountered in small-animal micro-CT. The results of this experiment suggest reliable separation and detection of iodine at concentrations ≥ 5 mg/ml and barium at concentrations ≥ 10 mg/ml in 2-mm features for EID and PCD data reconstructed with inherent spatial resolutions of 176 μm and 254 μm, respectively (point spread function, FWHM). Furthermore, hybrid reconstruction is demonstrated to enhance spatial resolution within material decomposition results and to improve low-contrast detectability by as much as 2.6 times relative to reconstruction with PCD data only. The parameters of the simulation experiment are based on an in vivo micro-CT experiment conducted in a mouse model of soft-tissue sarcoma. Material decomposition results produced from this in vivo data demonstrate the feasibility of distinguishing two K-edge contrast agents with a spectral

  8. Energy reconstruction in the long-baseline neutrino experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosel, U; Lalakulich, O; Gallmeister, K

    2014-04-18

    The Long-Baseline Neutrino Experiment aims at measuring fundamental physical parameters to high precision and exploring physics beyond the standard model. Nuclear targets introduce complications towards that aim. We investigate the uncertainties in the energy reconstruction, based on quasielastic scattering relations, due to nuclear effects. The reconstructed event distributions as a function of energy tend to be smeared out and shifted by several 100 MeV in their oscillatory structure if standard event selection is used. We show that a more restrictive experimental event selection offers the possibility to reach the accuracy needed for a determination of the mass ordering and the CP-violating phase. Quasielastic-based energy reconstruction could thus be a viable alternative to the calorimetric reconstruction also at higher energies.

  9. Optimal processing pathway selection for microalgae-based biorefinery under uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rizwan, Muhammad; Zaman, Muhammad; Lee, Jay H.

    2015-01-01

    We propose a systematic framework for the selection of optimal processing pathways for a microalgaebased biorefinery under techno-economic uncertainty. The proposed framework promotes robust decision making by taking into account the uncertainties that arise due to inconsistencies among...... and shortage in the available technical information. A stochastic mixed integer nonlinear programming (sMINLP) problem is formulated for determining the optimal biorefinery configurations based on a superstructure model where parameter uncertainties are modeled and included as sampled scenarios. The solution...... the accounting of uncertainty are compared with respect to different objectives. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved....

  10. Uncertainty in Simulating Wheat Yields Under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Jones, J. W.; Hatfield, J. W.; Ruane, A. C.; Boote, K. J.; Thornburn, P. J.; Rotter, R. P.; Cammarano, D.; hide

    2013-01-01

    Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain1. Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate2. However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic and objective comparisons among process-based crop simulation models1,3 are difficult4. Here we present the largest standardized model intercomparison for climate change impacts so far. We found that individual crop models are able to simulate measured wheat grain yields accurately under a range of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi-model ensembles. Less uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity will aid adaptation strategy development and policymaking.

  11. Uncertainty in Simulating Wheat Yields Under Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J.W.; Hatfield, Jerry; Ruane, Alex; Boote, K. J.; Thorburn, Peter; Rotter, R.P.; Cammarano, D.; Brisson, N.; Basso, B.; Martre, P.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Angulo, C.; Bertuzzi, P.; Biernath, C.; Challinor, AJ; Doltra, J.; Gayler, S.; Goldberg, R.; Grant, Robert; Heng, L.; Hooker, J.; Hunt, L.A.; Ingwersen, J.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Mueller, C.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Nendel, C.; O' Leary, G.O.; Olesen, JE; Osborne, T.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Semenov, M.A.; Shcherbak, I.; Steduto, P.; Stockle, Claudio O.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Travasso, M.; Waha, K.; Wallach, D.; White, J.W.; Williams, J.R.; Wolf, J.

    2013-09-01

    Anticipating the impacts of climate change on crop yields is critical for assessing future food security. Process-based crop simulation models are the most commonly used tools in such assessments1,2. Analysis of uncertainties in future greenhouse gas emissions and their impacts on future climate change has been increasingly described in the literature3,4 while assessments of the uncertainty in crop responses to climate change are very rare. Systematic and objective comparisons across impact studies is difficult, and thus has not been fully realized5. Here we present the largest coordinated and standardized crop model intercomparison for climate change impacts on wheat production to date. We found that several individual crop models are able to reproduce measured grain yields under current diverse environments, particularly if sufficient details are provided to execute them. However, simulated climate change impacts can vary across models due to differences in model structures and algorithms. The crop-model component of uncertainty in climate change impact assessments was considerably larger than the climate-model component from Global Climate Models (GCMs). Model responses to high temperatures and temperature-by-CO2 interactions are identified as major sources of simulated impact uncertainties. Significant reductions in impact uncertainties through model improvements in these areas and improved quantification of uncertainty through multi-model ensembles are urgently needed for a more reliable translation of climate change scenarios into agricultural impacts in order to develop adaptation strategies and aid policymaking.

  12. Overview of image reconstruction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marr, R.B.

    1980-04-01

    Image reconstruction (or computerized tomography, etc.) is any process whereby a function, f, on R/sup n/ is estimated from empirical data pertaining to its integrals, ∫f(x) dx, for some collection of hyperplanes of dimension k < n. The paper begins with background information on how image reconstruction problems have arisen in practice, and describes some of the application areas of past or current interest; these include radioastronomy, optics, radiology and nuclear medicine, electron microscopy, acoustical imaging, geophysical tomography, nondestructive testing, and NMR zeugmatography. Then the various reconstruction algorithms are discussed in five classes: summation, or simple back-projection; convolution, or filtered back-projection; Fourier and other functional transforms; orthogonal function series expansion; and iterative methods. Certain more technical mathematical aspects of image reconstruction are considered from the standpoint of uniqueness, consistency, and stability of solution. The paper concludes by presenting certain open problems. 73 references

  13. The evolving breast reconstruction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Jørn Bo; Gunnarsson, Gudjon Leifur

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this editorial is to give an update on the use of the propeller thoracodorsal artery perforator flap (TAP/TDAP-flap) within the field of breast reconstruction. The TAP-flap can be dissected by a combined use of a monopolar cautery and a scalpel. Microsurgical instruments are generally...... not needed. The propeller TAP-flap can be designed in different ways, three of these have been published: (I) an oblique upwards design; (II) a horizontal design; (III) an oblique downward design. The latissimus dorsi-flap is a good and reliable option for breast reconstruction, but has been criticized...... for oncoplastic and reconstructive breast surgery and will certainly become an invaluable addition to breast reconstructive methods....

  14. Forging Provincial Reconstruction Teams

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Honore, Russel L; Boslego, David V

    2007-01-01

    The Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) training mission completed by First U.S. Army in April 2006 was a joint Service effort to meet a requirement from the combatant commander to support goals in Afghanistan...

  15. Breast Reconstruction with Implants

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... your surgical options and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of implant-based reconstruction, and may show you ... Policy Notice of Privacy Practices Notice of Nondiscrimination Advertising Mayo Clinic is a not-for-profit organization ...

  16. PET image reconstruction: mean, variance, and optimal minimax criterion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Huafeng; Guo, Min; Gao, Fei; Shi, Pengcheng; Xue, Liying; Nie, Jing

    2015-01-01

    Given the noise nature of positron emission tomography (PET) measurements, it is critical to know the image quality and reliability as well as expected radioactivity map (mean image) for both qualitative interpretation and quantitative analysis. While existing efforts have often been devoted to providing only the reconstructed mean image, we present a unified framework for joint estimation of the mean and corresponding variance of the radioactivity map based on an efficient optimal min–max criterion. The proposed framework formulates the PET image reconstruction problem to be a transformation from system uncertainties to estimation errors, where the minimax criterion is adopted to minimize the estimation errors with possibly maximized system uncertainties. The estimation errors, in the form of a covariance matrix, express the measurement uncertainties in a complete way. The framework is then optimized by ∞-norm optimization and solved with the corresponding H ∞ filter. Unlike conventional statistical reconstruction algorithms, that rely on the statistical modeling methods of the measurement data or noise, the proposed joint estimation stands from the point of view of signal energies and can handle from imperfect statistical assumptions to even no a priori statistical assumptions. The performance and accuracy of reconstructed mean and variance images are validated using Monte Carlo simulations. Experiments on phantom scans with a small animal PET scanner and real patient scans are also conducted for assessment of clinical potential. (paper)

  17. Interpretation of the peak areas in gamma-ray spectra that have a large relative uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Korun, M.; Maver Modec, P.; Vodenik, B.

    2012-01-01

    Empirical evidence is provided that the areas of peaks having a relative uncertainty in excess of 30% are overestimated. This systematic influence is of a statistical nature and originates in way the peak-analyzing routine recognizes the small peaks. It is not easy to detect this influence since it is smaller than the peak-area uncertainty. However, the systematic influence can be revealed in repeated measurements under the same experimental conditions, e.g., in background measurements. To evaluate the systematic influence, background measurements were analyzed with the peak-analyzing procedure described by Korun et al. (2008). The magnitude of the influence depends on the relative uncertainty of the peak area and may amount, in the conditions used in the peak analysis, to a factor of 5 at relative uncertainties exceeding 60%. From the measurements, the probability for type-II errors, as a function of the relative uncertainty of the peak area, was extracted. This probability is near zero below an uncertainty of 30% and rises to 90% at uncertainties exceeding 50%. - Highlights: ► A systematic influence affecting small peak areas in gamma-ray spectra is described. ► The influence originates in the peak locating procedure, using a pre-determined sensitivity. ► The predetermined sensitivity makes peak areas with large uncertainties to be overestimated. ► The influence depends on the relative uncertainty of the number of counts in the peak. ► Corrections exceeding a factor of 3 are attained at peak area uncertainties exceeding 60%.

  18. Measurement uncertainty: Friend or foe?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Infusino, Ilenia; Panteghini, Mauro

    2018-02-02

    The definition and enforcement of a reference measurement system, based on the implementation of metrological traceability of patients' results to higher order reference methods and materials, together with a clinically acceptable level of measurement uncertainty, are fundamental requirements to produce accurate and equivalent laboratory results. The uncertainty associated with each step of the traceability chain should be governed to obtain a final combined uncertainty on clinical samples fulfilling the requested performance specifications. It is important that end-users (i.e., clinical laboratory) may know and verify how in vitro diagnostics (IVD) manufacturers have implemented the traceability of their calibrators and estimated the corresponding uncertainty. However, full information about traceability and combined uncertainty of calibrators is currently very difficult to obtain. Laboratory professionals should investigate the need to reduce the uncertainty of the higher order metrological references and/or to increase the precision of commercial measuring systems. Accordingly, the measurement uncertainty should not be considered a parameter to be calculated by clinical laboratories just to fulfil the accreditation standards, but it must become a key quality indicator to describe both the performance of an IVD measuring system and the laboratory itself. Copyright © 2018 The Canadian Society of Clinical Chemists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Model uncertainty in safety assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pulkkinen, U.; Huovinen, T.

    1996-01-01

    The uncertainty analyses are an essential part of any risk assessment. Usually the uncertainties of reliability model parameter values are described by probability distributions and the uncertainty is propagated through the whole risk model. In addition to the parameter uncertainties, the assumptions behind the risk models may be based on insufficient experimental observations and the models themselves may not be exact descriptions of the phenomena under analysis. The description and quantification of this type of uncertainty, model uncertainty, is the topic of this report. The model uncertainty is characterized and some approaches to model and quantify it are discussed. The emphasis is on so called mixture models, which have been applied in PSAs. Some of the possible disadvantages of the mixture model are addressed. In addition to quantitative analyses, also qualitative analysis is discussed shortly. To illustrate the models, two simple case studies on failure intensity and human error modeling are described. In both examples, the analysis is based on simple mixture models, which are observed to apply in PSA analyses. (orig.) (36 refs., 6 figs., 2 tabs.)

  20. Model uncertainty in safety assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pulkkinen, U; Huovinen, T [VTT Automation, Espoo (Finland). Industrial Automation

    1996-01-01

    The uncertainty analyses are an essential part of any risk assessment. Usually the uncertainties of reliability model parameter values are described by probability distributions and the uncertainty is propagated through the whole risk model. In addition to the parameter uncertainties, the assumptions behind the risk models may be based on insufficient experimental observations and the models themselves may not be exact descriptions of the phenomena under analysis. The description and quantification of this type of uncertainty, model uncertainty, is the topic of this report. The model uncertainty is characterized and some approaches to model and quantify it are discussed. The emphasis is on so called mixture models, which have been applied in PSAs. Some of the possible disadvantages of the mixture model are addressed. In addition to quantitative analyses, also qualitative analysis is discussed shortly. To illustrate the models, two simple case studies on failure intensity and human error modeling are described. In both examples, the analysis is based on simple mixture models, which are observed to apply in PSA analyses. (orig.) (36 refs., 6 figs., 2 tabs.).

  1. FMEA using uncertainty theories and MCDM methods

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Hu-Chen

    2016-01-01

    This book offers a thorough and systematic introduction to the modified failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) models based on uncertainty theories (e.g. fuzzy logic, intuitionistic fuzzy sets, D numbers and 2-tuple linguistic variables) and various multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) approaches such as distance-based MCDM, compromise ranking MCDM and hybrid MCDM, etc. As such, it provides essential FMEA methods and practical examples that can be considered in applying FMEA to enhance the reliability and safety of products and services. The book offers a valuable guide for practitioners and researchers working in the fields of quality management, decision making, information science, management science, engineering, etc. It can also be used as a textbook for postgraduate and senior undergraduate students.

  2. Decisions on new product development under uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yeu-Shiang; Liu, Li-Chen; Ho, Jyh-Wen

    2015-04-01

    In an intensively competitive market, developing a new product has become a valuable strategy for companies to establish their market positions and enhance their competitive advantages. Therefore, it is essential to effectively manage the process of new product development (NPD). However, since various problems may arise in NPD projects, managers should set up some milestones and subsequently construct evaluative mechanisms to assess their feasibility. This paper employed the approach of Bayesian decision analysis to deal with the two crucial uncertainties for NPD, which are the future market share and the responses of competitors. The proposed decision process can provide a systematic analytical procedure to determine whether an NPD project should be continued or not under the consideration of whether effective usage is being made of the organisational resources. Accordingly, the proposed decision model can assist the managers in effectively addressing the NPD issue under the competitive market.

  3. Last Glacial Maximum Salinity Reconstruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Homola, K.; Spivack, A. J.

    2016-12-01

    It has been previously demonstrated that salinity can be reconstructed from sediment porewater. The goal of our study is to reconstruct high precision salinity during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Salinity is usually determined at high precision via conductivity, which requires a larger volume of water than can be extracted from a sediment core, or via chloride titration, which yields lower than ideal precision. It has been demonstrated for water column samples that high precision density measurements can be used to determine salinity at the precision of a conductivity measurement using the equation of state of seawater. However, water column seawater has a relatively constant composition, in contrast to porewater, where variations from standard seawater composition occur. These deviations, which affect the equation of state, must be corrected for through precise measurements of each ion's concentration and knowledge of apparent partial molar density in seawater. We have developed a density-based method for determining porewater salinity that requires only 5 mL of sample, achieving density precisions of 10-6 g/mL. We have applied this method to porewater samples extracted from long cores collected along a N-S transect across the western North Atlantic (R/V Knorr cruise KN223). Density was determined to a precision of 2.3x10-6 g/mL, which translates to salinity uncertainty of 0.002 gms/kg if the effect of differences in composition is well constrained. Concentrations of anions (Cl-, and SO4-2) and cations (Na+, Mg+, Ca+2, and K+) were measured. To correct salinities at the precision required to unravel LGM Meridional Overturning Circulation, our ion precisions must be better than 0.1% for SO4-/Cl- and Mg+/Na+, and 0.4% for Ca+/Na+, and K+/Na+. Alkalinity, pH and Dissolved Inorganic Carbon of the porewater were determined to precisions better than 4% when ratioed to Cl-, and used to calculate HCO3-, and CO3-2. Apparent partial molar densities in seawater were

  4. Model uncertainty: Probabilities for models?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winkler, R.L.

    1994-01-01

    Like any other type of uncertainty, model uncertainty should be treated in terms of probabilities. The question is how to do this. The most commonly-used approach has a drawback related to the interpretation of the probabilities assigned to the models. If we step back and look at the big picture, asking what the appropriate focus of the model uncertainty question should be in the context of risk and decision analysis, we see that a different probabilistic approach makes more sense, although it raise some implementation questions. Current work that is underway to address these questions looks very promising

  5. Decision-making under great uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hansson, S.O.

    1992-01-01

    Five types of decision-uncertainty are distinguished: uncertainty of consequences, of values, of demarcation, of reliance, and of co-ordination. Strategies are proposed for each type of uncertainty. The general conclusion is that it is meaningful for decision theory to treat cases with greater uncertainty than the textbook case of 'decision-making under uncertainty'. (au)

  6. Coping with uncertainty in environmental impact assessments: Open techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cardenas, Ibsen C., E-mail: c.cardenas@utwente.nl [IceBridge Research Institutea, Universiteit Twente, P.O. Box 217, 7500 AE Enschede (Netherlands); Halman, Johannes I.M., E-mail: J.I.M.Halman@utwente.nl [Universiteit Twente, P.O. Box 217, 7500 AE Enschede (Netherlands)

    2016-09-15

    Uncertainty is virtually unavoidable in environmental impact assessments (EIAs). From the literature related to treating and managing uncertainty, we have identified specific techniques for coping with uncertainty in EIAs. Here, we have focused on basic steps in the decision-making process that take place within an EIA setting. More specifically, we have identified uncertainties involved in each decision-making step and discussed the extent to which these can be treated and managed in the context of an activity or project that may have environmental impacts. To further demonstrate the relevance of the techniques identified, we have examined the extent to which the EIA guidelines currently used in Colombia consider and provide guidance on managing the uncertainty involved in these assessments. Some points that should be considered in order to provide greater robustness in impact assessments in Colombia have been identified. These include the management of stakeholder values, the systematic generation of project options, and their associated impacts as well as the associated management actions, and the evaluation of uncertainties and assumptions. We believe that the relevant and specific techniques reported here can be a reference for future evaluations of other EIA guidelines in different countries. - Highlights: • uncertainty is unavoidable in environmental impact assessments, EIAs; • we have identified some open techniques to EIAs for treating and managing uncertainty in these assessments; • points for improvement that should be considered in order to provide greater robustness in EIAs in Colombia have been identified; • the paper provides substantiated a reference for possible examinations of EIAs guidelines in other countries.

  7. Decoherence effect on quantum-memory-assisted entropic uncertainty relations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ming, Fei; Wang, Dong; Huang, Ai-Jun; Sun, Wen-Yang; Ye, Liu

    2018-01-01

    Uncertainty principle significantly provides a bound to predict precision of measurement with regard to any two incompatible observables, and thereby plays a nontrivial role in quantum precision measurement. In this work, we observe the dynamical features of the quantum-memory-assisted entropic uncertainty relations (EUR) for a pair of incompatible measurements in an open system characterized by local generalized amplitude damping (GAD) noises. Herein, we derive the dynamical evolution of the entropic uncertainty with respect to the measurement affecting by the canonical GAD noises when particle A is initially entangled with quantum memory B. Specifically, we examine the dynamics of EUR in the frame of three realistic scenarios: one case is that particle A is affected by environmental noise (GAD) while particle B as quantum memory is free from any noises, another case is that particle B is affected by the external noise while particle A is not, and the last case is that both of the particles suffer from the noises. By analytical methods, it turns out that the uncertainty is not full dependent of quantum correlation evolution of the composite system consisting of A and B, but the minimal conditional entropy of the measured subsystem. Furthermore, we present a possible physical interpretation for the behavior of the uncertainty evolution by means of the mixedness of the observed system; we argue that the uncertainty might be dramatically correlated with the systematic mixedness. Furthermore, we put forward a simple and effective strategy to reduce the measuring uncertainty of interest upon quantum partially collapsed measurement. Therefore, our explorations might offer an insight into the dynamics of the entropic uncertainty relation in a realistic system, and be of importance to quantum precision measurement during quantum information processing.

  8. Coping with uncertainty in environmental impact assessments: Open techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cardenas, Ibsen C.; Halman, Johannes I.M.

    2016-01-01

    Uncertainty is virtually unavoidable in environmental impact assessments (EIAs). From the literature related to treating and managing uncertainty, we have identified specific techniques for coping with uncertainty in EIAs. Here, we have focused on basic steps in the decision-making process that take place within an EIA setting. More specifically, we have identified uncertainties involved in each decision-making step and discussed the extent to which these can be treated and managed in the context of an activity or project that may have environmental impacts. To further demonstrate the relevance of the techniques identified, we have examined the extent to which the EIA guidelines currently used in Colombia consider and provide guidance on managing the uncertainty involved in these assessments. Some points that should be considered in order to provide greater robustness in impact assessments in Colombia have been identified. These include the management of stakeholder values, the systematic generation of project options, and their associated impacts as well as the associated management actions, and the evaluation of uncertainties and assumptions. We believe that the relevant and specific techniques reported here can be a reference for future evaluations of other EIA guidelines in different countries. - Highlights: • uncertainty is unavoidable in environmental impact assessments, EIAs; • we have identified some open techniques to EIAs for treating and managing uncertainty in these assessments; • points for improvement that should be considered in order to provide greater robustness in EIAs in Colombia have been identified; • the paper provides substantiated a reference for possible examinations of EIAs guidelines in other countries.

  9. Radiotherapy for breast cancer: respiratory and set-up uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saliou, M.G.; Giraud, P.; Simon, L.; Fournier-Bidoz, N.; Fourquet, A.; Dendale, R.; Rosenwald, J.C.; Cosset, J.M.

    2005-01-01

    Adjuvant Radiotherapy has been shown to significantly reduce locoregional recurrence but this advantage is associated with increased cardiovascular and pulmonary morbidities. All uncertainties inherent to conformal radiation therapy must be identified in order to increase the precision of treatment; misestimation of these uncertainties increases the potential risk of geometrical misses with, as a consequence, under-dosage of the tumor and/or overdosage of healthy tissues. Geometric uncertainties due to respiratory movements or set-up errors are well known. Two strategies have been proposed to limit their effect: quantification of these uncertainties, which are then taken into account in the final calculation of safety margins and/or reduction of respiratory and set-up uncertainties by an efficient immobilization or gating systems. Measured on portal films with two tangential fields. CLD (central lung distance), defined as the distance between the deep field edge and the interior chest wall at the central axis, seems to be the best predictor of set-up uncertainties. Using CLD, estimated mean set-up errors from the literature are 3.8 and 3.2 mm for the systematic and random errors respectively. These depend partly on the type of immobilization device and could be reduced by the use of portal imaging systems. Furthermore, breast is mobile during respiration with motion amplitude as high as 0.8 to 10 mm in the anteroposterior direction. Respiratory gating techniques, currently on evaluation, have the potential to reduce effect of these movements. Each radiotherapy department should perform its own assessments and determine the geometric uncertainties with respect of the equipment used and its particular treatment practices. This paper is a review of the main geometric uncertainties in breast treatment, due to respiration and set-up, and solutions proposed to limit their impact. (author)

  10. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses in aging risk-based prioritizations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hassan, M.; Uryas'ev, S.; Vesely, W.E.

    1993-01-01

    Aging risk evaluations of nuclear power plants using Probabilistic Risk Analyses (PRAs) involve assessments of the impact of aging structures, systems, and components (SSCs) on plant core damage frequency (CDF). These assessments can be used to prioritize the contributors to aging risk reflecting the relative risk potential of the SSCs. Aging prioritizations are important for identifying the SSCs contributing most to plant risk and can provide a systematic basis on which aging risk control and management strategies for a plant can be developed. However, these prioritizations are subject to variabilities arising from uncertainties in data, and/or from various modeling assumptions. The objective of this paper is to present an evaluation of the sensitivity of aging prioritizations of active components to uncertainties in aging risk quantifications. Approaches for robust prioritization of SSCs also are presented which are less susceptible to the uncertainties

  11. Certainty Equivalence M-MRAC for Systems with Unmatched Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stepanyan, Vahram; Krishnakumar, Kalmanje

    2012-01-01

    The paper presents a certainty equivalence state feedback indirect adaptive control design method for the systems of any relative degree with unmatched uncertainties. The approach is based on the parameter identification (estimation) model, which is completely separated from the control design and is capable of producing parameter estimates as fast as the computing power allows without generating high frequency oscillations. It is shown that the system's input and output tracking errors can be systematically decreased by the proper choice of the design parameters.

  12. Sensitivity of Process Design due to Uncertainties in Property Estimates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hukkerikar, Amol; Jones, Mark Nicholas; Sarup, Bent

    2012-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to present a systematic methodology for performing analysis of sensitivity of process design due to uncertainties in property estimates. The methodology provides the following results: a) list of properties with critical importance on design; b) acceptable levels of...... in chemical processes. Among others vapour pressure accuracy for azeotropic mixtures is critical and needs to be measured or estimated with a ±0.25% accuracy to satisfy acceptable safety levels in design....

  13. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Early health effects uncertainty assessment. Volume 2: Appendices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haskin, F.E. [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands)

    1997-12-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA early health effects models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on early health effects, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

  14. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for deposited material and external doses. Volume 2: Appendices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Boardman, J. [AEA Technology (United Kingdom); Jones, J.A. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

    1997-12-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA deposited material and external dose models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on deposited material and external doses, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

  15. Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for internal dosimetry. Volume 2: Appendices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Harrison, J.D. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

    1998-04-01

    The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA internal dosimetry models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on internal dosimetry, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

  16. Performance of algorithms that reconstruct missing transverse momentum in √(s) = 8 TeV proton-proton collisions in the ATLAS detector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aad, G. [CPPM, Aix-Marseille Univ. et CNRS/IN2P3, Marseille (France); Abbott, B. [Oklahoma Univ., Norman, OK (United States). Homer L. Dodge Dept. of Physics and Astronomy; Abdallah, J. [Iowa Univ.,Iowa City, IA (United States); Collaboration: ATLAS Collaboration; and others

    2017-04-15

    The reconstruction and calibration algorithms used to calculate missing transverse momentum (E{sub T}{sup miss}) with the ATLAS detector exploit energy deposits in the calorimeter and tracks reconstructed in the inner detector as well as the muon spectrometer. Various strategies are used to suppress effects arising from additional proton-proton interactions, called pileup, concurrent with the hard-scatter processes. Tracking information is used to distinguish contributions from the pileup interactions using their vertex separation along the beam axis. The performance of the E{sub T}{sup miss} reconstruction algorithms, especially with respect to the amount of pileup, is evaluated using data collected in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 8 TeV during 2012, and results are shown for a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 20.3 fb{sup -1}. The simulation and modelling of E{sub T}{sup miss} in events containing a Z boson decaying to two charged leptons (electrons or muons) or a W boson decaying to a charged lepton and a neutrino are compared to data. The acceptance for different event topologies, with and without high transverse momentum neutrinos, is shown for a range of threshold criteria for E{sub T}{sup miss}, and estimates of the systematic uncertainties in the E{sub T}{sup miss} measurements are presented. (orig.)

  17. The Uncertainties of Risk Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vinnari, Eija; Skærbæk, Peter

    2014-01-01

    for expanding risk management. More generally, such uncertainties relate to the professional identities and responsibilities of operational managers as defined by the framing devices. Originality/value – The paper offers three contributions to the extant literature: first, it shows how risk management itself......Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyse the implementation of risk management as a tool for internal audit activities, focusing on unexpected effects or uncertainties generated during its application. Design/methodology/approach – Public and confidential documents as well as semi......-structured interviews are analysed through the lens of actor-network theory to identify the effects of risk management devices in a Finnish municipality. Findings – The authors found that risk management, rather than reducing uncertainty, itself created unexpected uncertainties that would otherwise not have emerged...

  18. Climate Projections and Uncertainty Communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joslyn, Susan L; LeClerc, Jared E

    2016-01-01

    Lingering skepticism about climate change might be due in part to the way climate projections are perceived by members of the public. Variability between scientists' estimates might give the impression that scientists disagree about the fact of climate change rather than about details concerning the extent or timing. Providing uncertainty estimates might clarify that the variability is due in part to quantifiable uncertainty inherent in the prediction process, thereby increasing people's trust in climate projections. This hypothesis was tested in two experiments. Results suggest that including uncertainty estimates along with climate projections leads to an increase in participants' trust in the information. Analyses explored the roles of time, place, demographic differences (e.g., age, gender, education level, political party affiliation), and initial belief in climate change. Implications are discussed in terms of the potential benefit of adding uncertainty estimates to public climate projections. Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  19. Relational uncertainty in service dyads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kreye, Melanie

    2017-01-01

    in service dyads and how they resolve it through suitable organisational responses to increase the level of service quality. Design/methodology/approach: We apply the overall logic of Organisational Information-Processing Theory (OIPT) and present empirical insights from two industrial case studies collected...... the relational uncertainty increased the functional quality while resolving the partner’s organisational uncertainty increased the technical quality of the delivered service. Originality: We make two contributions. First, we introduce relational uncertainty to the OM literature as the inability to predict...... and explain the actions of a partnering organisation due to a lack of knowledge about their abilities and intentions. Second, we present suitable organisational responses to relational uncertainty and their effect on service quality....

  20. Advanced LOCA code uncertainty assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wickett, A.J.; Neill, A.P.

    1990-11-01

    This report describes a pilot study that identified, quantified and combined uncertainties for the LOBI BL-02 3% small break test. A ''dials'' version of TRAC-PF1/MOD1, called TRAC-F, was used. (author)

  1. How to live with uncertainties?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Michel, R.

    2012-01-01

    In a short introduction, the problem of uncertainty as a general consequence of incomplete information as well as the approach to quantify uncertainty in metrology are addressed. A little history of the more than 30 years of the working group AK SIGMA is followed by an appraisal of its up-to-now achievements. Then, the potential future of the AK SIGMA is discussed based on its actual tasks and on open scientific questions and future topics. (orig.)

  2. Some remarks on modeling uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ronen, Y.

    1983-01-01

    Several topics related to the question of modeling uncertainties are considered. The first topic is related to the use of the generalized bias operator method for modeling uncertainties. The method is expanded to a more general form of operators. The generalized bias operator is also used in the inverse problem and applied to determine the anisotropic scattering law. The last topic discussed is related to the question of the limit to accuracy and how to establish its value. (orig.) [de

  3. Uncertainty analysis in safety assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lemos, Francisco Luiz de; Sullivan, Terry

    1997-01-01

    Nuclear waste disposal is a very complex subject which requires the study of many different fields of science, like hydro geology, meteorology, geochemistry, etc. In addition, the waste disposal facilities are designed to last for a very long period of time. Both of these conditions make safety assessment projections filled with uncertainty. This paper addresses approaches for treatment of uncertainties in the safety assessment modeling due to the variability of data and some current approaches used to deal with this problem. (author)

  4. Optimal Taxation under Income Uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Xianhua Dai

    2011-01-01

    Optimal taxation under income uncertainty has been extensively developed in expected utility theory, but it is still open for inseparable utility function between income and effort. As an alternative of decision-making under uncertainty, prospect theory (Kahneman and Tversky (1979), Tversky and Kahneman (1992)) has been obtained empirical support, for example, Kahneman and Tversky (1979), and Camerer and Lowenstein (2003). It is beginning to explore optimal taxation in the context of prospect...

  5. New Perspectives on Policy Uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Hlatshwayo, Sandile

    2017-01-01

    In recent years, the ubiquitous and intensifying nature of economic policy uncertainty has made it a popular explanation for weak economic performance in developed and developing markets alike. The primary channel for this effect is decreased and delayed investment as firms adopt a ``wait and see'' approach to irreversible investments (Bernanke, 1983; Dixit and Pindyck, 1994). Deep empirical examination of policy uncertainty's impact is rare because of the difficulty associated in measuring i...

  6. Do systematic reviews on pediatric topics need special methodological considerations?

    OpenAIRE

    Farid-Kapadia, Mufiza; Askie, Lisa; Hartling, Lisa; Contopoulos-Ioannidis, Despina; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.; Soll, Roger; Moher, David; Offringa, Martin

    2017-01-01

    Background Systematic reviews are key tools to enable decision making by healthcare providers and policymakers. Despite the availability of the evidence based Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA-2009 and PRISMA-P 2015) statements that were developed to improve the transparency and quality of reporting of systematic reviews, uncertainty on how to deal with pediatric-specific methodological challenges of systematic reviews impairs decision-making in child ...

  7. Constructing (un-)certainty: An exploration of journalistic decision-making in the reporting of neuroscience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehmkuhl, Markus; Peters, Hans Peter

    2016-11-01

    Based on 21 individual case studies, this article inventories the ways journalism deals with scientific uncertainty. The study identifies the decisions that impact a journalist's perception of a truth claim as unambiguous or ambiguous and the strategies to deal with uncertainty that arise from this perception. Key for understanding journalistic action is the outcome of three evaluations: What is the story about? How shall the story be told? What type of story is it? We reconstructed the strategies to overcome journalistic decision-making uncertainty in those cases in which they perceived scientific contingency as a problem. Journalism deals with uncertainty by way of omission, by contrasting the conflicting messages or by acknowledging the problem via the structure or language. One finding deserves particular mention: The lack of focus on scientific uncertainty is not only a problem of how journalists perceive and communicate but also a problem of how science communicates. © The Author(s) 2016.

  8. Wound drainage after plastic and reconstructive surgery of the breast

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stojkovic, Christa A.; Smeulders, Mark J. C.; van der Horst, Chantal M.; Khan, Sameena M.

    2013-01-01

    Wound drains are often used after plastic and reconstructive surgery of the breast, in order to reduce potential complications. It is unclear whether there is any evidence to support this practice and we therefore undertook a systematic review of the best evidence available. To compare the safety

  9. Wound drainage after plastic and reconstructive surgery of the breast

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Khan, Sameena M.; Smeulders, Mark J. C.; van der Horst, Chantal M.

    2015-01-01

    Wound drains are often used after plastic and reconstructive surgery of the breast, in order to reduce potential complications. It is unclear whether there is any evidence to support this practice and we therefore undertook a systematic review of the best evidence available. To compare the safety

  10. Pharmacological Fingerprints of Contextual Uncertainty.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louise Marshall

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Successful interaction with the environment requires flexible updating of our beliefs about the world. By estimating the likelihood of future events, it is possible to prepare appropriate actions in advance and execute fast, accurate motor responses. According to theoretical proposals, agents track the variability arising from changing environments by computing various forms of uncertainty. Several neuromodulators have been linked to uncertainty signalling, but comprehensive empirical characterisation of their relative contributions to perceptual belief updating, and to the selection of motor responses, is lacking. Here we assess the roles of noradrenaline, acetylcholine, and dopamine within a single, unified computational framework of uncertainty. Using pharmacological interventions in a sample of 128 healthy human volunteers and a hierarchical Bayesian learning model, we characterise the influences of noradrenergic, cholinergic, and dopaminergic receptor antagonism on individual computations of uncertainty during a probabilistic serial reaction time task. We propose that noradrenaline influences learning of uncertain events arising from unexpected changes in the environment. In contrast, acetylcholine balances attribution of uncertainty to chance fluctuations within an environmental context, defined by a stable set of probabilistic associations, or to gross environmental violations following a contextual switch. Dopamine supports the use of uncertainty representations to engender fast, adaptive responses.

  11. 42 CFR 82.19 - How will NIOSH address uncertainty about dose levels?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... characterized with a probability distribution that accounts for the uncertainty of the estimate. This information will be used by DOL in the calculation of probability of causation, under HHS guidelines for... THE ENERGY EMPLOYEES OCCUPATIONAL ILLNESS COMPENSATION PROGRAM ACT OF 2000 Dose Reconstruction Process...

  12. Propagation of interval and probabilistic uncertainty in cyberinfrastructure-related data processing and data fusion

    CERN Document Server

    Servin, Christian

    2015-01-01

    On various examples ranging from geosciences to environmental sciences, this book explains how to generate an adequate description of uncertainty, how to justify semiheuristic algorithms for processing uncertainty, and how to make these algorithms more computationally efficient. It explains in what sense the existing approach to uncertainty as a combination of random and systematic components is only an approximation, presents a more adequate three-component model with an additional periodic error component, and explains how uncertainty propagation techniques can be extended to this model. The book provides a justification for a practically efficient heuristic technique (based on fuzzy decision-making). It explains how the computational complexity of uncertainty processing can be reduced. The book also shows how to take into account that in real life, the information about uncertainty is often only partially known, and, on several practical examples, explains how to extract the missing information about uncer...

  13. Industrial dynamic tomographic reconstruction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oliveira, Eric Ferreira de

    2016-01-01

    The state of the art methods applied to industrial processes is currently based on the principles of classical tomographic reconstructions developed for tomographic patterns of static distributions, or is limited to cases of low variability of the density distribution function of the tomographed object. Noise and motion artifacts are the main problems caused by a mismatch in the data from views acquired in different instants. All of these add to the known fact that using a limited amount of data can result in the presence of noise, artifacts and some inconsistencies with the distribution under study. One of the objectives of the present work is to discuss the difficulties that arise from implementing reconstruction algorithms in dynamic tomography that were originally developed for static distributions. Another objective is to propose solutions that aim at reducing a temporal type of information loss caused by employing regular acquisition systems to dynamic processes. With respect to dynamic image reconstruction it was conducted a comparison between different static reconstruction methods, like MART and FBP, when used for dynamic scenarios. This comparison was based on a MCNPx simulation as well as an analytical setup of an aluminum cylinder that moves along the section of a riser during the process of acquisition, and also based on cross section images from CFD techniques. As for the adaptation of current tomographic acquisition systems for dynamic processes, this work established a sequence of tomographic views in a just-in-time fashion for visualization purposes, a form of visually disposing density information as soon as it becomes amenable to image reconstruction. A third contribution was to take advantage of the triple color channel necessary to display colored images in most displays, so that, by appropriately scaling the acquired values of each view in the linear system of the reconstruction, it was possible to imprint a temporal trace into the regularly

  14. A Bayesian approach to model uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buslik, A.

    1994-01-01

    A Bayesian approach to model uncertainty is taken. For the case of a finite number of alternative models, the model uncertainty is equivalent to parameter uncertainty. A derivation based on Savage's partition problem is given

  15. The NASA Langley Multidisciplinary Uncertainty Quantification Challenge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crespo, Luis G.; Kenny, Sean P.; Giesy, Daniel P.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents the formulation of an uncertainty quantification challenge problem consisting of five subproblems. These problems focus on key aspects of uncertainty characterization, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty propagation, extreme-case analysis, and robust design.

  16. Alternative reconstruction after pancreaticoduodenectomy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cooperman Avram M

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Pancreaticoduodenectomy is the procedure of choice for tumors of the head of the pancreas and periampulla. Despite advances in surgical technique and postoperative care, the procedure continues to carry a high morbidity rate. One of the most common morbidities is delayed gastric emptying with rates of 15%–40%. Following two prolonged cases of delayed gastric emptying, we altered our reconstruction to avoid this complication altogether. Subsequently, our patients underwent a classic pancreaticoduodenectomy with an undivided Roux-en-Y technique for reconstruction. Methods We reviewed the charts of our last 13 Whipple procedures evaluating them for complications, specifically delayed gastric emptying. We compared the outcomes of those patients to a control group of 15 patients who underwent the Whipple procedure with standard reconstruction. Results No instances of delayed gastric emptying occurred in patients who underwent an undivided Roux-en-Y technique for reconstruction. There was 1 wound infection (8%, 1 instance of pneumonia (8%, and 1 instance of bleeding from the gastrojejunal staple line (8%. There was no operative mortality. Conclusion Use of the undivided Roux-en-Y technique for reconstruction following the Whipple procedure may decrease the incidence of delayed gastric emptying. In addition, it has the added benefit of eliminating bile reflux gastritis. Future randomized control trials are recommended to further evaluate the efficacy of the procedure.

  17. A framework for model-based optimization of bioprocesses under uncertainty: Identifying critical parameters and operating variables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Morales Rodriguez, Ricardo; Meyer, Anne S.; Gernaey, Krist

    2011-01-01

    This study presents the development and application of a systematic model-based framework for bioprocess optimization, evaluated on a cellulosic ethanol production case study. The implementation of the framework involves the use of dynamic simulations, sophisticated uncertainty analysis (Monte...

  18. Calibration of the interferometer and reconstruction of the gravitational wave strain amplitude: from Virgo to Advanced Virgo

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rolland, Loic

    2015-01-01

    A kilometre scale interferometer has been setup by the Virgo collaboration in order to observe astrophysical sources through gravitational wave radiation with frequencies between 10 Hz and a few kHz. Four science runs have been performed between 2007 and 2011, in collaboration with the LIGO detectors installed in the United States, but no gravitational waves were detected. Since 2011, major upgrades of the detectors are ongoing. They aim to improve the sensitivity by a factor 10 over the whole frequency band by the year 2020. The Advanced Virgo detector construction is ending in 2015, and the first observation periods, of a few months, will start in 2016. I have been working for almost nine years in the Virgo collaboration. One of the activities that I have pursued since the beginning is the detector calibration. In this document, a general overview of the Virgo detector is first given. Then the three main goals of the interferometer calibration are described: estimation of the detector sensitivity, reconstruction of the gravitational wave signal given to the different search pipelines, and hardware injections of fake signals in the instrument. The different methods are summarised and emphasise is put on the systematic uncertainties estimated for the Virgo detector. The last part deals with prospects of the calibration and reconstruction techniques for the new Advanced Virgo detector. (author)

  19. Do Orthopaedic Surgeons Acknowledge Uncertainty?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teunis, Teun; Janssen, Stein; Guitton, Thierry G; Ring, David; Parisien, Robert

    2016-06-01

    Much of the decision-making in orthopaedics rests on uncertain evidence. Uncertainty is therefore part of our normal daily practice, and yet physician uncertainty regarding treatment could diminish patients' health. It is not known if physician uncertainty is a function of the evidence alone or if other factors are involved. With added experience, uncertainty could be expected to diminish, but perhaps more influential are things like physician confidence, belief in the veracity of what is published, and even one's religious beliefs. In addition, it is plausible that the kind of practice a physician works in can affect the experience of uncertainty. Practicing physicians may not be immediately aware of these effects on how uncertainty is experienced in their clinical decision-making. We asked: (1) Does uncertainty and overconfidence bias decrease with years of practice? (2) What sociodemographic factors are independently associated with less recognition of uncertainty, in particular belief in God or other deity or deities, and how is atheism associated with recognition of uncertainty? (3) Do confidence bias (confidence that one's skill is greater than it actually is), degree of trust in the orthopaedic evidence, and degree of statistical sophistication correlate independently with recognition of uncertainty? We created a survey to establish an overall recognition of uncertainty score (four questions), trust in the orthopaedic evidence base (four questions), confidence bias (three questions), and statistical understanding (six questions). Seven hundred six members of the Science of Variation Group, a collaboration that aims to study variation in the definition and treatment of human illness, were approached to complete our survey. This group represents mainly orthopaedic surgeons specializing in trauma or hand and wrist surgery, practicing in Europe and North America, of whom the majority is involved in teaching. Approximately half of the group has more than 10 years

  20. Tissue engineering of ligaments for reconstructive surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogan, MaCalus V; Kawakami, Yohei; Murawski, Christopher D; Fu, Freddie H

    2015-05-01

    The use of musculoskeletal bioengineering and regenerative medicine applications in orthopaedic surgery has continued to evolve. The aim of this systematic review was to address tissue-engineering strategies for knee ligament reconstruction. A systematic review of PubMed/Medline using the terms "knee AND ligament" AND "tissue engineering" OR "regenerative medicine" was performed. Two authors performed the search, independently assessed the studies for inclusion, and extracted the data for inclusion in the review. Both preclinical and clinical studies were reviewed, and the articles deemed most relevant were included in this article to provide relevant basic science and recent clinical translational knowledge concerning "tissue-engineering" strategies currently used in knee ligament reconstruction. A total of 224 articles were reviewed in our initial PubMed search. Non-English-language studies were excluded. Clinical and preclinical studies were identified, and those with a focus on knee ligament tissue-engineering strategies including stem cell-based therapies, growth factor administration, hybrid biomaterial, and scaffold development, as well as mechanical stimulation modalities, were reviewed. The body of knowledge surrounding tissue-engineering strategies for ligament reconstruction continues to expand. Presently, various tissue-engineering techniques have some potential advantages, including faster recovery, better ligamentization, and possibly, a reduction of recurrence. Preclinical research of these novel therapies continues to provide promising results. There remains a need for well-designed, high-powered comparative clinical studies to serve as a foundation for successful translation into the clinical setting going forward. Level IV, systematic review of Level IV studies. Copyright © 2015 Arthroscopy Association of North America. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Reconstructing random media

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yeong, C.L.; Torquato, S.

    1998-01-01

    We formulate a procedure to reconstruct the structure of general random heterogeneous media from limited morphological information by extending the methodology of Rintoul and Torquato [J. Colloid Interface Sci. 186, 467 (1997)] developed for dispersions. The procedure has the advantages that it is simple to implement and generally applicable to multidimensional, multiphase, and anisotropic structures. Furthermore, an extremely useful feature is that it can incorporate any type and number of correlation functions in order to provide as much morphological information as is necessary for accurate reconstruction. We consider a variety of one- and two-dimensional reconstructions, including periodic and random arrays of rods, various distribution of disks, Debye random media, and a Fontainebleau sandstone sample. We also use our algorithm to construct heterogeneous media from specified hypothetical correlation functions, including an exponentially damped, oscillating function as well as physically unrealizable ones. copyright 1998 The American Physical Society

  2. Delayed breast implant reconstruction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hvilsom, Gitte B.; Hölmich, Lisbet R.; Steding-Jessen, Marianne

    2012-01-01

    We evaluated the association between radiation therapy and severe capsular contracture or reoperation after 717 delayed breast implant reconstruction procedures (288 1- and 429 2-stage procedures) identified in the prospective database of the Danish Registry for Plastic Surgery of the Breast during...... of radiation therapy was associated with a non-significantly increased risk of reoperation after both 1-stage (HR = 1.4; 95% CI: 0.7-2.5) and 2-stage (HR = 1.6; 95% CI: 0.9-3.1) procedures. Reconstruction failure was highest (13.2%) in the 2-stage procedures with a history of radiation therapy. Breast...... reconstruction approaches other than implants should be seriously considered among women who have received radiation therapy....

  3. Image-Guided Radiotherapy for Left-Sided Breast Cancer Patients: Geometrical Uncertainty of the Heart

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Topolnjak, Rajko; Borst, Gerben R.; Nijkamp, Jasper; Sonke, Jan-Jakob

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: To quantify the geometrical uncertainties for the heart during radiotherapy treatment of left-sided breast cancer patients and to determine and validate planning organ at risk volume (PRV) margins. Methods and Materials: Twenty-two patients treated in supine position in 28 fractions with regularly acquired cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) scans for offline setup correction were included. Retrospectively, the CBCT scans were reconstructed into 10-phase respiration correlated four-dimensional scans. The heart was registered in each breathing phase to the planning CT scan to establish the respiratory heart motion during the CBCT scan (σ resp ). The average of the respiratory motion was calculated as the heart displacement error for a fraction. Subsequently, the systematic (Σ), random (σ), and total random (σ tot =√(σ 2 +σ resp 2 )) errors of the heart position were calculated. Based on the errors a PRV margin for the heart was calculated to ensure that the maximum heart dose (D max ) is not underestimated in at least 90% of the cases (M heart = 1.3Σ-0.5σ tot ). All analysis were performed in left-right (LR), craniocaudal (CC), and anteroposterior (AP) directions with respect to both online and offline bony anatomy setup corrections. The PRV margin was validated by accumulating the dose to the heart based on the heart registrations and comparing the planned PRV D max to the accumulated heart D max . Results: For online setup correction, the cardiac geometrical uncertainties and PRV margins were ∑ = 2.2/3.2/2.1 mm, σ = 2.1/2.9/1.4 mm, and M heart = 1.6/2.3/1.3 mm for LR/CC/AP, respectively. For offline setup correction these were ∑ = 2.4/3.7/2.2 mm, σ = 2.9/4.1/2.7 mm, and M heart = 1.6/2.1/1.4 mm. Cardiac motion induced by breathing was σ resp = 1.4/2.9/1.4 mm for LR/CC/AP. The PRV D max underestimated the accumulated heart D max for 9.1% patients using online and 13.6% patients using offline bony anatomy setup correction, which validated

  4. The Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project: Overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haerer, H.A.; Freshley, M.D.; Gilbert, R.O.; Morgan, L.G.; Napier, B.A.; Rhoads, R.E.; Woodruff, R.K.

    1990-01-01

    In 1988, researchers began a multiyear effort to estimate radiation doses that people could have received since 1944 at the U.S. Department of Energy's Hanford Site. The study was prompted by increasing concern about potential health effects to the public from more than 40 yr of nuclear activities. We will provide an overview of the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project and its technical approach. The work has required development of new methods and tools for dealing with unique technical and communication challenges. Scientists are using a probabilistic, rather than the more typical deterministic, approach to generate dose distributions rather than single-point estimates. Uncertainties in input parameters are reflected in dose results. Sensitivity analyses are used to optimize project resources and define the project's scope. An independent technical steering panel directs and approves the work in a public forum. Dose estimates are based on review and analysis of historical data related to operations, effluents, and monitoring; determination of important radionuclides; and reconstruction of source terms, environmental conditions that affected transport, concentrations in environmental media, and human elements, such as population distribution, agricultural practices, food consumption patterns, and lifestyles. A companion paper in this volume, The Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project: Technical Approach, describes the computational framework for the work

  5. A sliding mode observer for hemodynamic characterization under modeling uncertainties

    KAUST Repository

    Zayane, Chadia

    2014-06-01

    This paper addresses the case of physiological states reconstruction in a small region of the brain under modeling uncertainties. The misunderstood coupling between the cerebral blood volume and the oxygen extraction fraction has lead to a partial knowledge of the so-called balloon model describing the hemodynamic behavior of the brain. To overcome this difficulty, a High Order Sliding Mode observer is applied to the balloon system, where the unknown coupling is considered as an internal perturbation. The effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated through a set of synthetic data that mimic fMRI experiments.

  6. HEEL BONE RECONSTRUCTIVE OSTEOSYNTHESIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. N. Svetashov

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available To detect the most appropriate to heel bone injury severity variants of reconstructive osteosynthesis it was analyzed treatment results of 56 patients. In 15 (26.8% patients classic methods of surgical service were applied, in 41 (73.2% cases to restore the defect porous implants were used. Osteosynthesis without heel bone plastic restoration accomplishment was ineffective in 60% patients from control group. Reconstructive osteosynthesis method ensures long-term good functional effect of rehabilitation in 96.4% patients from the basic group.

  7. Vertex reconstruction in CMS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chabanat, E.; D'Hondt, J.; Estre, N.; Fruehwirth, R.; Prokofiev, K.; Speer, T.; Vanlaer, P.; Waltenberger, W.

    2005-01-01

    Due to the high track multiplicity in the final states expected in proton collisions at the LHC experiments, novel vertex reconstruction algorithms are required. The vertex reconstruction problem can be decomposed into a pattern recognition problem ('vertex finding') and an estimation problem ('vertex fitting'). Starting from least-squares methods, robustifications of the classical algorithms are discussed and the statistical properties of the novel methods are shown. A whole set of different approaches for the vertex finding problem is presented and compared in relevant physics channels

  8. Vertex Reconstruction in CMS

    CERN Document Server

    Chabanat, E; D'Hondt, J; Vanlaer, P; Prokofiev, K; Speer, T; Frühwirth, R; Waltenberger, W

    2005-01-01

    Because of the high track multiplicity in the final states expected in proton collisions at the LHC experiments, novel vertex reconstruction algorithms are required. The vertex reconstruction problem can be decomposed into a pattern recognition problem ("vertex finding") and an estimation problem ("vertex fitting"). Starting from least-square methods, ways to render the classical algorithms more robust are discussed and the statistical properties of the novel methods are shown. A whole set of different approaches for the vertex finding problem is presented and compared in relevant physics channels.

  9. Modelling Framework for the Identification of Critical Variables and Parameters under Uncertainty in the Bioethanol Production from Lignocellulose

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Morales Rodriguez, Ricardo; Meyer, Anne S.; Gernaey, Krist

    2011-01-01

    This study presents the development of a systematic modelling framework for identification of the most critical variables and parameters under uncertainty, evaluated on a lignocellulosic ethanol production case study. The systematic framework starts with: (1) definition of the objectives; (2......, suitable for further analysis of the bioprocess. The uncertainty and sensitivity analysis identified the following most critical variables and parameters involved in the lignocellulosic ethanol production case study. For the operating cost, the enzyme loading showed the strongest impact, while reaction...

  10. Uncertainty in projected climate change arising from uncertain fossil-fuel emission factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quilcaille, Y.; Gasser, T.; Ciais, P.; Lecocq, F.; Janssens-Maenhout, G.; Mohr, S.

    2018-04-01

    Emission inventories are widely used by the climate community, but their uncertainties are rarely accounted for. In this study, we evaluate the uncertainty in projected climate change induced by uncertainties in fossil-fuel emissions, accounting for non-CO2 species co-emitted with the combustion of fossil-fuels and their use in industrial processes. Using consistent historical reconstructions and three contrasted future projections of fossil-fuel extraction from Mohr et al we calculate CO2 emissions and their uncertainties stemming from estimates of fuel carbon content, net calorific value and oxidation fraction. Our historical reconstructions of fossil-fuel CO2 emissions are consistent with other inventories in terms of average and range. The uncertainties sum up to a ±15% relative uncertainty in cumulative CO2 emissions by 2300. Uncertainties in the emissions of non-CO2 species associated with the use of fossil fuels are estimated using co-emission ratios varying with time. Using these inputs, we use the compact Earth system model OSCAR v2.2 and a Monte Carlo setup, in order to attribute the uncertainty in projected global surface temperature change (ΔT) to three sources of uncertainty, namely on the Earth system’s response, on fossil-fuel CO2 emission and on non-CO2 co-emissions. Under the three future fuel extraction scenarios, we simulate the median ΔT to be 1.9, 2.7 or 4.0 °C in 2300, with an associated 90% confidence interval of about 65%, 52% and 42%. We show that virtually all of the total uncertainty is attributable to the uncertainty in the future Earth system’s response to the anthropogenic perturbation. We conclude that the uncertainty in emission estimates can be neglected for global temperature projections in the face of the large uncertainty in the Earth system response to the forcing of emissions. We show that this result does not hold for all variables of the climate system, such as the atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 and the

  11. Risk assessment under deep uncertainty: A methodological comparison

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shortridge, Julie; Aven, Terje; Guikema, Seth

    2017-01-01

    Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) has proven to be an invaluable tool for evaluating risks in complex engineered systems. However, there is increasing concern that PRA may not be adequate in situations with little underlying knowledge to support probabilistic representation of uncertainties. As analysts and policy makers turn their attention to deeply uncertain hazards such as climate change, a number of alternatives to traditional PRA have been proposed. This paper systematically compares three diverse approaches for risk analysis under deep uncertainty (qualitative uncertainty factors, probability bounds, and robust decision making) in terms of their representation of uncertain quantities, analytical output, and implications for risk management. A simple example problem is used to highlight differences in the way that each method relates to the traditional risk assessment process and fundamental issues associated with risk assessment and description. We find that the implications for decision making are not necessarily consistent between approaches, and that differences in the representation of uncertain quantities and analytical output suggest contexts in which each method may be most appropriate. Finally, each methodology demonstrates how risk assessment can inform decision making in deeply uncertain contexts, informing more effective responses to risk problems characterized by deep uncertainty. - Highlights: • We compare three diverse approaches to risk assessment under deep uncertainty. • A simple example problem highlights differences in analytical process and results. • Results demonstrate how methodological choices can impact risk assessment results.

  12. Addressing Uncertainties in Cost Estimates for Decommissioning Nuclear Facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benjamin, Serge; Descures, Sylvain; Du Pasquier, Louis; Francois, Patrice; Buonarotti, Stefano; Mariotti, Giovanni; Tarakonov, Jurij; Daniska, Vladimir; Bergh, Niklas; Carroll, Simon; AaSTRoeM, Annika; Cato, Anna; De La Gardie, Fredrik; Haenggi, Hannes; Rodriguez, Jose; Laird, Alastair; Ridpath, Andy; La Guardia, Thomas; O'Sullivan, Patrick; ); Weber, Inge; )

    2017-01-01

    The cost estimation process of decommissioning nuclear facilities has continued to evolve in recent years, with a general trend towards demonstrating greater levels of detail in the estimate and more explicit consideration of uncertainties, the latter of which may have an impact on decommissioning project costs. The 2012 report on the International Structure for Decommissioning Costing (ISDC) of Nuclear Installations, a joint recommendation by the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the European Commission, proposes a standardised structure of cost items for decommissioning projects that can be used either directly for the production of cost estimates or for mapping of cost items for benchmarking purposes. The ISDC, however, provides only limited guidance on the treatment of uncertainty when preparing cost estimates. Addressing Uncertainties in Cost Estimates for Decommissioning Nuclear Facilities, prepared jointly by the NEA and IAEA, is intended to complement the ISDC, assisting cost estimators and reviewers in systematically addressing uncertainties in decommissioning cost estimates. Based on experiences gained in participating countries and projects, the report describes how uncertainty and risks can be analysed and incorporated in decommissioning cost estimates, while presenting the outcomes in a transparent manner

  13. Reducing the top quark mass uncertainty with jet grooming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreassen, Anders; Schwartz, Matthew D.

    2017-10-01

    The measurement of the top quark mass has large systematic uncertainties coming from the Monte Carlo simulations that are used to match theory and experiment. We explore how much that uncertainty can be reduced by using jet grooming procedures. Using the ATLAS A14 tunes of pythia, we estimate the uncertainty from the choice of tuning parameters in what is meant by the Monte Carlo mass to be around 530 MeV without any corrections. This uncertainty can be reduced by 60% to 200 MeV by calibrating to the W mass and by 70% to 140 MeV by additionally applying soft-drop jet grooming (or to 170 MeV using trimming). At e + e - colliders, the associated uncertainty is around 110 MeV, reducing to 50 MeV after calibrating to the W mass. By analyzing the tuning parameters, we conclude that the importance of jet grooming after calibrating to the W -mass is to reduce sensitivity to the underlying event.

  14. RUMINATIONS ON NDA MEASUREMENT UNCERTAINTY COMPARED TO DA UNCERTAINTY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salaymeh, S.; Ashley, W.; Jeffcoat, R.

    2010-06-17

    It is difficult to overestimate the importance that physical measurements performed with nondestructive assay instruments play throughout the nuclear fuel cycle. They underpin decision making in many areas and support: criticality safety, radiation protection, process control, safeguards, facility compliance, and waste measurements. No physical measurement is complete or indeed meaningful, without a defensible and appropriate accompanying statement of uncertainties and how they combine to define the confidence in the results. The uncertainty budget should also be broken down in sufficient detail suitable for subsequent uses to which the nondestructive assay (NDA) results will be applied. Creating an uncertainty budget and estimating the total measurement uncertainty can often be an involved process, especially for non routine situations. This is because data interpretation often involves complex algorithms and logic combined in a highly intertwined way. The methods often call on a multitude of input data subject to human oversight. These characteristics can be confusing and pose a barrier to developing and understanding between experts and data consumers. ASTM subcommittee C26-10 recognized this problem in the context of how to summarize and express precision and bias performance across the range of standards and guides it maintains. In order to create a unified approach consistent with modern practice and embracing the continuous improvement philosophy a consensus arose to prepare a procedure covering the estimation and reporting of uncertainties in non destructive assay of nuclear materials. This paper outlines the needs analysis, objectives and on-going development efforts. In addition to emphasizing some of the unique challenges and opportunities facing the NDA community we hope this article will encourage dialog and sharing of best practice and furthermore motivate developers to revisit the treatment of measurement uncertainty.

  15. Ruminations On NDA Measurement Uncertainty Compared TO DA Uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salaymeh, S.; Ashley, W.; Jeffcoat, R.

    2010-01-01

    It is difficult to overestimate the importance that physical measurements performed with nondestructive assay instruments play throughout the nuclear fuel cycle. They underpin decision making in many areas and support: criticality safety, radiation protection, process control, safeguards, facility compliance, and waste measurements. No physical measurement is complete or indeed meaningful, without a defensible and appropriate accompanying statement of uncertainties and how they combine to define the confidence in the results. The uncertainty budget should also be broken down in sufficient detail suitable for subsequent uses to which the nondestructive assay (NDA) results will be applied. Creating an uncertainty budget and estimating the total measurement uncertainty can often be an involved process, especially for non routine situations. This is because data interpretation often involves complex algorithms and logic combined in a highly intertwined way. The methods often call on a multitude of input data subject to human oversight. These characteristics can be confusing and pose a barrier to developing and understanding between experts and data consumers. ASTM subcommittee C26-10 recognized this problem in the context of how to summarize and express precision and bias performance across the range of standards and guides it maintains. In order to create a unified approach consistent with modern practice and embracing the continuous improvement philosophy a consensus arose to prepare a procedure covering the estimation and reporting of uncertainties in non destructive assay of nuclear materials. This paper outlines the needs analysis, objectives and on-going development efforts. In addition to emphasizing some of the unique challenges and opportunities facing the NDA community we hope this article will encourage dialog and sharing of best practice and furthermore motivate developers to revisit the treatment of measurement uncertainty.

  16. LensEnt2: Maximum-entropy weak lens reconstruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, P. J.; Hobson, M. P.; Gull, S. F.; Bridle, S. L.

    2013-08-01

    LensEnt2 is a maximum entropy reconstructor of weak lensing mass maps. The method takes each galaxy shape as an independent estimator of the reduced shear field and incorporates an intrinsic smoothness, determined by Bayesian methods, into the reconstruction. The uncertainties from both the intrinsic distribution of galaxy shapes and galaxy shape estimation are carried through to the final mass reconstruction, and the mass within arbitrarily shaped apertures are calculated with corresponding uncertainties. The input is a galaxy ellipticity catalog with each measured galaxy shape treated as a noisy tracer of the reduced shear field, which is inferred on a fine pixel grid assuming positivity, and smoothness on scales of w arcsec where w is an input parameter. The ICF width w can be chosen by computing the evidence for it.

  17. Ground surface temperature and continental heat gain: uncertainties from underground

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beltrami, Hugo; Matharoo, Gurpreet S; Smerdon, Jason E

    2015-01-01

    Temperature changes at the Earth's surface propagate and are recorded underground as perturbations to the equilibrium thermal regime associated with the heat flow from the Earth's interior. Borehole climatology is concerned with the analysis and interpretation of these downward propagating subsurface temperature anomalies in terms of surface climate. Proper determination of the steady-state geothermal regime is therefore crucial because it is the reference against which climate-induced subsurface temperature anomalies are estimated. Here, we examine the effects of data noise on the determination of the steady-state geothermal regime of the subsurface and the subsequent impact on estimates of ground surface temperature (GST) history and heat gain. We carry out a series of Monte Carlo experiments using 1000 Gaussian noise realizations and depth sections of 100 and 200 m as for steady-state estimates depth intervals, as well as a range of data sampling intervals from 10 m to 0.02 m. Results indicate that typical uncertainties for 50 year averages are on the order of ±0.02 K for the most recent 100 year period. These uncertainties grow with decreasing sampling intervals, reaching about ±0.1 K for a 10 m sampling interval under identical conditions and target period. Uncertainties increase for progressively older periods, reaching ±0.3 K at 500 years before present for a 10 m sampling interval. The uncertainties in reconstructed GST histories for the Northern Hemisphere for the most recent 50 year period can reach a maximum of ±0.5 K in some areas. We suggest that continuous logging should be the preferred approach when measuring geothermal data for climate reconstructions, and that for those using the International Heat Flow Commission database for borehole climatology, the steady-state thermal conditions should be estimated from boreholes as deep as possible and using a large fitting depth range (∼100 m). (letter)

  18. Critical loads - assessment of uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barkman, A.

    1998-10-01

    The effects of data uncertainty in applications of the critical loads concept were investigated on different spatial resolutions in Sweden and northern Czech Republic. Critical loads of acidity (CL) were calculated for Sweden using the biogeochemical model PROFILE. Three methods with different structural complexity were used to estimate the adverse effects of S0{sub 2} concentrations in northern Czech Republic. Data uncertainties in the calculated critical loads/levels and exceedances (EX) were assessed using Monte Carlo simulations. Uncertainties within cumulative distribution functions (CDF) were aggregated by accounting for the overlap between site specific confidence intervals. Aggregation of data uncertainties within CDFs resulted in lower CL and higher EX best estimates in comparison with percentiles represented by individual sites. Data uncertainties were consequently found to advocate larger deposition reductions to achieve non-exceedance based on low critical loads estimates on 150 x 150 km resolution. Input data were found to impair the level of differentiation between geographical units at all investigated resolutions. Aggregation of data uncertainty within CDFs involved more constrained confidence intervals for a given percentile. Differentiation as well as identification of grid cells on 150 x 150 km resolution subjected to EX was generally improved. Calculation of the probability of EX was shown to preserve the possibility to differentiate between geographical units. Re-aggregation of the 95%-ile EX on 50 x 50 km resolution generally increased the confidence interval for each percentile. Significant relationships were found between forest decline and the three methods addressing risks induced by S0{sub 2} concentrations. Modifying S0{sub 2} concentrations by accounting for the length of the vegetation period was found to constitute the most useful trade-off between structural complexity, data availability and effects of data uncertainty. Data

  19. Uncertainty Quantification for Ice Sheet Science and Sea Level Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boening, C.; Schlegel, N.; Limonadi, D.; Schodlok, M.; Seroussi, H. L.; Larour, E. Y.; Watkins, M. M.

    2017-12-01

    In order to better quantify uncertainties in global mean sea level rise projections and in particular upper bounds, we aim at systematically evaluating the contributions from ice sheets and potential for extreme sea level rise due to sudden ice mass loss. Here, we take advantage of established uncertainty quantification tools embedded within the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) as well as sensitivities to ice/ocean interactions using melt rates and melt potential derived from MITgcm/ECCO2. With the use of these tools, we conduct Monte-Carlo style sampling experiments on forward simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet, by varying internal parameters and boundary conditions of the system over both extreme and credible worst-case ranges. Uncertainty bounds for climate forcing are informed by CMIP5 ensemble precipitation and ice melt estimates for year 2100, and uncertainty bounds for ocean melt rates are derived from a suite of regional sensitivity experiments using MITgcm. Resulting statistics allow us to assess how regional uncertainty in various parameters affect model estimates of century-scale sea level rise projections. The results inform efforts to a) isolate the processes and inputs that are most responsible for determining ice sheet contribution to sea level; b) redefine uncertainty brackets for century-scale projections; and c) provide a prioritized list of measurements, along with quantitative information on spatial and temporal resolution, required for reducing uncertainty in future sea level rise projections. Results indicate that ice sheet mass loss is dependent on the spatial resolution of key boundary conditions - such as bedrock topography and melt rates at the ice-ocean interface. This work is performed at and supported by the California Institute of Technology's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Supercomputing time is also supported through a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Cryosphere program.

  20. Modelling ecosystem service flows under uncertainty with stochiastic SPAN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Gary W.; Snapp, Robert R.; Villa, Ferdinando; Bagstad, Kenneth J.

    2012-01-01

    Ecosystem service models are increasingly in demand for decision making. However, the data required to run these models are often patchy, missing, outdated, or untrustworthy. Further, communication of data and model uncertainty to decision makers is often either absent or unintuitive. In this work, we introduce a systematic approach to addressing both the data gap and the difficulty in communicating uncertainty through a stochastic adaptation of the Service Path Attribution Networks (SPAN) framework. The SPAN formalism assesses ecosystem services through a set of up to 16 maps, which characterize the services in a study area in terms of flow pathways between ecosystems and human beneficiaries. Although the SPAN algorithms were originally defined deterministically, we present them here in a stochastic framework which combines probabilistic input data with a stochastic transport model in order to generate probabilistic spatial outputs. This enables a novel feature among ecosystem service models: the ability to spatially visualize uncertainty in the model results. The stochastic SPAN model can analyze areas where data limitations are prohibitive for deterministic models. Greater uncertainty in the model inputs (including missing data) should lead to greater uncertainty expressed in the model’s output distributions. By using Bayesian belief networks to fill data gaps and expert-provided trust assignments to augment untrustworthy or outdated information, we can account for uncertainty in input data, producing a model that is still able to run and provide information where strictly deterministic models could not. Taken together, these attributes enable more robust and intuitive modelling of ecosystem services under uncertainty.

  1. Uncertainty Quantification in Numerical Aerodynamics

    KAUST Repository

    Litvinenko, Alexander

    2017-05-16

    We consider uncertainty quantification problem in aerodynamic simulations. We identify input uncertainties, classify them, suggest an appropriate statistical model and, finally, estimate propagation of these uncertainties into the solution (pressure, velocity and density fields as well as the lift and drag coefficients). The deterministic problem under consideration is a compressible transonic Reynolds-averaged Navier-Strokes flow around an airfoil with random/uncertain data. Input uncertainties include: uncertain angle of attack, the Mach number, random perturbations in the airfoil geometry, mesh, shock location, turbulence model and parameters of this turbulence model. This problem requires efficient numerical/statistical methods since it is computationally expensive, especially for the uncertainties caused by random geometry variations which involve a large number of variables. In numerical section we compares five methods, including quasi-Monte Carlo quadrature, polynomial chaos with coefficients determined by sparse quadrature and gradient-enhanced version of Kriging, radial basis functions and point collocation polynomial chaos, in their efficiency in estimating statistics of aerodynamic performance upon random perturbation to the airfoil geometry [D.Liu et al \\'17]. For modeling we used the TAU code, developed in DLR, Germany.

  2. Uncertainty in spatial planning proceedings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleš Mlakar

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Uncertainty is distinctive of spatial planning as it arises from the necessity to co-ordinate the various interests within the area, from the urgency of adopting spatial planning decisions, the complexity of the environment, physical space and society, addressing the uncertainty of the future and from the uncertainty of actually making the right decision. Response to uncertainty is a series of measures that mitigate the effects of uncertainty itself. These measures are based on two fundamental principles – standardization and optimization. The measures are related to knowledge enhancement and spatial planning comprehension, in the legal regulation of changes, in the existence of spatial planning as a means of different interests co-ordination, in the active planning and the constructive resolution of current spatial problems, in the integration of spatial planning and the environmental protection process, in the implementation of the analysis as the foundation of spatial planners activities, in the methods of thinking outside the parameters, in forming clear spatial concepts and in creating a transparent management spatial system and also in the enforcement the participatory processes.

  3. Uncertainty modeling and decision support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yager, Ronald R.

    2004-01-01

    We first formulate the problem of decision making under uncertainty. The importance of the representation of our knowledge about the uncertainty in formulating a decision process is pointed out. We begin with a brief discussion of the case of probabilistic uncertainty. Next, in considerable detail, we discuss the case of decision making under ignorance. For this case the fundamental role of the attitude of the decision maker is noted and its subjective nature is emphasized. Next the case in which a Dempster-Shafer belief structure is used to model our knowledge of the uncertainty is considered. Here we also emphasize the subjective choices the decision maker must make in formulating a decision function. The case in which the uncertainty is represented by a fuzzy measure (monotonic set function) is then investigated. We then return to the Dempster-Shafer belief structure and show its relationship to the fuzzy measure. This relationship allows us to get a deeper understanding of the formulation the decision function used Dempster- Shafer framework. We discuss how this deeper understanding allows a decision analyst to better make the subjective choices needed in the formulation of the decision function

  4. A New Track Reconstruction Algorithm suitable for Parallel Processing based on Hit Triplets and Broken Lines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schöning André

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Track reconstruction in high track multiplicity environments at current and future high rate particle physics experiments is a big challenge and very time consuming. The search for track seeds and the fitting of track candidates are usually the most time consuming steps in the track reconstruction. Here, a new and fast track reconstruction method based on hit triplets is proposed which exploits a three-dimensional fit model including multiple scattering and hit uncertainties from the very start, including the search for track seeds. The hit triplet based reconstruction method assumes a homogeneous magnetic field which allows to give an analytical solutions for the triplet fit result. This method is highly parallelizable, needs fewer operations than other standard track reconstruction methods and is therefore ideal for the implementation on parallel computing architectures. The proposed track reconstruction algorithm has been studied in the context of the Mu3e-experiment and a typical LHC experiment.

  5. Evaluation of uncertainties in MUF for a LWR fuel fabrication plant. Pt.2 - Pt.4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mennerdahl, D.

    1984-09-01

    MUF (Material Unaccounted For) is a parameter defined as the estimated loss of materials during a certain period of time. A suitable method for uncertainty and bias estimations has been developed. The method was specifically adjusted for a facility like the ASEA-ATOM fuel fabrication plant. Operations that are expected to contribute to the uncertainties have been compiled. Information that is required for the application of the developed method is described. Proposals for simplification of the required information without losing the accuracy are suggested. ASEA-ATOM had earlier determined uncertainty data for the scales that are used for nuclear materials. The statistical uncertainties included random errors, short-term and long-term systematic errors. Information for the determination of biases was also determined (constants and formulas). The method proposed by ASEA-ATOM for the determination of uncertainties due to the scales is compatible with the method proposed in this report. For other operations than weighing, the information from ASEA-ATOM is limited. Such operations are completely dominating the total uncertainty in MUF. Examples of calculations of uncertainties and bias are given for uranium oxide powders in large containers. Examples emphasize the differences between various statistical errors (random and system