Planck 2015 results: III. LFI systematic uncertainties

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ade, P. A R; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.

2016-01-01

We present the current accounting of systematic effect uncertainties for the Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) that are relevant to the 2015 release of the Planck cosmological results, showing the robustness and consistency of our data set, especially for polarization analysis. We use two complement...

Applications of Bayesian temperature profile reconstruction to automated comparison with heat transport models and uncertainty quantification of current diffusion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Irishkin, M.; Imbeaux, F.; Aniel, T.; Artaud, J.F.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • We developed a method for automated comparison of experimental data with models. • A unique platform implements Bayesian analysis and integrated modelling tools. • The method is tokamak-generic and is applied to Tore Supra and JET pulses. • Validation of a heat transport model is carried out. • We quantified the uncertainties due to Te profiles in current diffusion simulations. - Abstract: In the context of present and future long pulse tokamak experiments yielding a growing size of measured data per pulse, automating data consistency analysis and comparisons of measurements with models is a critical matter. To address these issues, the present work describes an expert system that carries out in an integrated and fully automated way (i) a reconstruction of plasma profiles from the measurements, using Bayesian analysis (ii) a prediction of the reconstructed quantities, according to some models and (iii) a comparison of the first two steps. The first application shown is devoted to the development of an automated comparison method between the experimental plasma profiles reconstructed using Bayesian methods and time dependent solutions of the transport equations. The method was applied to model validation of a simple heat transport model with three radial shape options. It has been tested on a database of 21 Tore Supra and 14 JET shots. The second application aims at quantifying uncertainties due to the electron temperature profile in current diffusion simulations. A systematic reconstruction of the Ne, Te, Ti profiles was first carried out for all time slices of the pulse. The Bayesian 95% highest probability intervals on the Te profile reconstruction were then used for (i) data consistency check of the flux consumption and (ii) defining a confidence interval for the current profile simulation. The method has been applied to one Tore Supra pulse and one JET pulse.

Modelling Spatial Compositional Data: Reconstructions of past land cover and uncertainties

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pirzamanbein, Behnaz; Lindström, Johan; Poska, Anneli

2018-01-01

In this paper, we construct a hierarchical model for spatial compositional data, which is used to reconstruct past land-cover compositions (in terms of coniferous forest, broadleaved forest, and unforested/open land) for five time periods during the past $6\\,000$ years over Europe. The model...... to a fast MCMC algorithm. Reconstructions are obtained by combining pollen-based estimates of vegetation cover at a limited number of locations with scenarios of past deforestation and output from a dynamic vegetation model. To evaluate uncertainties in the predictions a novel way of constructing joint...... confidence regions for the entire composition at each prediction location is proposed. The hierarchical model's ability to reconstruct past land cover is evaluated through cross validation for all time periods, and by comparing reconstructions for the recent past to a present day European forest map...

Hadronization systematics and top mass reconstruction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Corcella Gennaro

2014-01-01

Full Text Available I discuss a few issues related to the systematic error on the top mass mea- surement at hadron colliders, due to hadronization effects. Special care is taken about the impact of bottom-quark fragmentation in top decays, especially on the reconstruction relying on final states with leptons and J/Ψ in the dilepton channel. I also debate the relation between the measured mass and its theoretical definition, and report on work in progress, based on the Monte Carlo simulation of fictitious top-flavoured hadrons, which may shed light on this issue and on the hadronization systematics.

Systematic uncertainties in long-baseline neutrino oscillations for large θ₁₃

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Coloma, Pilar; Huber, Patrick; Kopp, Joachim; Winter, Walter

2013-02-01

We study the physics potential of future long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiments at large θ₁₃, focusing especially on systematic uncertainties. We discuss superbeams, \\bbeams, and neutrino factories, and for the first time compare these experiments on an equal footing with respect to systematic errors. We explicitly simulate near detectors for all experiments, we use the same implementation of systematic uncertainties for all experiments, and we fully correlate the uncertainties among detectors, oscillation channels, and beam polarizations as appropriate. As our primary performance indicator, we use the achievable precision in the measurement of the CP violating phase $\\deltacp$. We find that a neutrino factory is the only instrument that can measure $\\deltacp$ with a precision similar to that of its quark sector counterpart. All neutrino beams operating at peak energies ≳2 GeV are quite robust with respect to systematic uncertainties, whereas especially \\bbeams and \\thk suffer from large cross section uncertainties in the quasi-elastic regime, combined with their inability to measure the appearance signal cross sections at the near detector. A noteworthy exception is the combination of a γ =100 \\bbeam with an \\spl-based superbeam, in which all relevant cross sections can be measured in a self-consistent way. This provides a performance, second only to the neutrino factory. For other superbeam experiments such as \\lbno and the setups studied in the context of the \\lbne reconfiguration effort, statistics turns out to be the bottleneck. In almost all cases, the near detector is not critical to control systematics since the combined fit of appearance and disappearance data already constrains the impact of systematics to be small provided that the three active flavor oscillation framework is valid.

Do systematic reviews address community healthcare professionals' wound care uncertainties? Results from evidence mapping in wound care.

Science.gov (United States)

Christie, Janice; Gray, Trish A; Dumville, Jo C; Cullum, Nicky A

2018-01-01

Complex wounds such as leg and foot ulcers are common, resource intensive and have negative impacts on patients' wellbeing. Evidence-based decision-making, substantiated by high quality evidence such as from systematic reviews, is widely advocated for improving patient care and healthcare efficiency. Consequently, we set out to classify and map the extent to which up-to-date systematic reviews containing robust evidence exist for wound care uncertainties prioritised by community-based healthcare professionals. We asked healthcare professionals to prioritise uncertainties based on complex wound care decisions, and then classified 28 uncertainties according to the type and level of decision. For each uncertainty, we searched for relevant systematic reviews. Two independent reviewers screened abstracts and full texts of reviews against the following criteria: meeting an a priori definition of a systematic review, sufficiently addressing the uncertainty, published during or after 2012, and identifying high quality research evidence. The most common uncertainty type was 'interventions' 24/28 (85%); the majority concerned wound level decisions 15/28 (53%) however, service delivery level decisions (10/28) were given highest priority. Overall, we found 162 potentially relevant reviews of which 57 (35%) were not systematic reviews. Of 106 systematic reviews, only 28 were relevant to an uncertainty and 18 of these were published within the preceding five years; none identified high quality research evidence. Despite the growing volume of published primary research, healthcare professionals delivering wound care have important clinical uncertainties which are not addressed by up-to-date systematic reviews containing high certainty evidence. These are high priority topics requiring new research and systematic reviews which are regularly updated. To reduce clinical and research waste, we recommend systematic reviewers and researchers make greater efforts to ensure that research

A Convex Reconstruction Model for X-ray Tomographic Imaging with Uncertain Flat-fields

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Aggrawal, Hari Om; Andersen, Martin Skovgaard; Rose, Sean

2018-01-01

has a negligible effect on the reconstruction quality. However, in time- or dose-limited applications such as dynamic CT, this uncertainty may cause severe and systematic artifacts known as ring artifacts. By carefully modeling the measurement process and by taking uncertainties into account, we...

Systematic uncertainties on Monte Carlo simulation of lead based ADS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Embid, M.; Fernandez, R.; Garcia-Sanz, J.M.; Gonzalez, E.

1999-01-01

Computer simulations of the neutronic behaviour of ADS systems foreseen for actinide and fission product transmutation are affected by many sources of systematic uncertainties, both from the nuclear data and by the methodology selected when applying the codes. Several actual ADS Monte Carlo simulations are presented, comparing different options both for the data and for the methodology, evaluating the relevance of the different uncertainties. (author)

Systematic and non-systematic effects of the uncertainty of the sample position in gamma-ray spectrometry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vidmar, T.; Korun, M.

2004-01-01

When cylindrical samples placed coaxially with the detector are measured on a gamma-ray spectrometer, the position of the sample very often deviates from an ideal one with the axes of the sample and the detector less than perfectly aligned. If a calibrated source is used prior to the measurement and is presumed to have been positioned correctly, one might conclude that the misalignment of the measured sample should result in an uncertainty of the reported nuclide activity, since the efficiencies of the sample and the calibrated source are effectively different due to the difference in placement. The efficiency of a displaced cylindrical sample, however, is always lower than the one of a sample that is perfectly aligned. The net effect of misalignment can therefore be not only an increase in the uncertainty of the activity, but also a systematic error in its evaluation. Since the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement requires that all such systematic effects be corrected for, we have developed a method to assess the change in the efficiency resulting from misalignment and to introduce the required correction. The calculation of this correction only requires knowledge of basic sample and detector data. The uncertainty of the reported activity can then also be assessed and is influenced by the uncertainty of the efficiency evaluated around its new, corrected value. An appropriate expression for this uncertainty has been derived

Assessment of the uncertainty associated with systematic errors in digital instruments: an experimental study on offset errors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Attivissimo, F; Giaquinto, N; Savino, M; Cataldo, A

2012-01-01

This paper deals with the assessment of the uncertainty due to systematic errors, particularly in A/D conversion-based instruments. The problem of defining and assessing systematic errors is briefly discussed, and the conceptual scheme of gauge repeatability and reproducibility is adopted. A practical example regarding the evaluation of the uncertainty caused by the systematic offset error is presented. The experimental results, obtained under various ambient conditions, show that modelling the variability of systematic errors is more problematic than suggested by the ISO 5725 norm. Additionally, the paper demonstrates the substantial difference between the type B uncertainty evaluation, obtained via the maximum entropy principle applied to manufacturer's specifications, and the type A (experimental) uncertainty evaluation, which reflects actually observable reality. Although it is reasonable to assume a uniform distribution of the offset error, experiments demonstrate that the distribution is not centred and that a correction must be applied. In such a context, this work motivates a more pragmatic and experimental approach to uncertainty, with respect to the directions of supplement 1 of GUM. (paper)

Uncertainty of the peak flow reconstruction of the 1907 flood in the Ebro River in Xerta (NE Iberian Peninsula)

Science.gov (United States)

Ruiz-Bellet, Josep Lluís; Castelltort, Xavier; Balasch, J. Carles; Tuset, Jordi

2017-02-01

There is no clear, unified and accepted method to estimate the uncertainty of hydraulic modelling results. In historical floods reconstruction, due to the lower precision of input data, the magnitude of this uncertainty could reach a high value. With the objectives of giving an estimate of the peak flow error of a typical historical flood reconstruction with the model HEC-RAS and of providing a quick, simple uncertainty assessment that an end user could easily apply, the uncertainty of the reconstructed peak flow of a major flood in the Ebro River (NE Iberian Peninsula) was calculated with a set of local sensitivity analyses on six input variables. The peak flow total error was estimated at ±31% and water height was found to be the most influential variable on peak flow, followed by Manning's n. However, the latter, due to its large uncertainty, was the greatest contributor to peak flow total error. Besides, the HEC-RAS resulting peak flow was compared to the ones obtained with the 2D model Iber and with Manning's equation; all three methods gave similar peak flows. Manning's equation gave almost the same result than HEC-RAS. The main conclusion is that, to ensure the lowest peak flow error, the reliability and precision of the flood mark should be thoroughly assessed.

A new OH5 reconstruction with an assessment of its uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Benazzi, Stefano; Bookstein, Fred L; Strait, David S; Weber, Gerhard W

2011-07-01

The OH5 cranium, holotype of Paranthropus boisei consists of two main portions that do not fit together: the extensively reconstructed face and a portion of the neurocranium. A physical reconstruction of the cranium was carried out by Tobias in 1967, who did not discuss problems related to deformation, although he noted a slight functional asymmetry. Nevertheless, the reconstructed cranium shows some anomalies, mainly due to the right skewed position of the upper calvariofacial fragment and uncertainty of the relative position of the neurocranium to the face, which hamper further quantitative analysis of OH5's cranial geometry. Here, we present a complete virtual reconstruction of OH5, using three-dimensional (3D) digital data, geometric morphometric (GM) methods and computer-aided design (CAD) techniques. Starting from a CT scan of Tobias's reconstruction, a semi-automatic segmentation method was used to remove Tobias's plaster. The upper calvariofacial fragment was separated from the lower facial fragment and re-aligned using superposition of their independent midsagittal planes in a range of feasible positions. The missing parts of the right hemiface were reconstructed using non-uniform rational basis-spline (NURBS) surface and subsequently mirrored using the midsagittal plane to arrive at a symmetrical facial reconstruction. A symmetric neurocranium was obtained as the average of the original shape and its mirrored version. The alignment between the two symmetric shapes (face and neurocranium) used their independent midsagittal plane and a reference shape (KNM-ER 406) to highly reduce their degrees of freedom. From the series of alternative reconstructions, we selected the middle of this rather small feasible range. When reconstructed as a range in this way, the whole cranial form of this unique specimen can be further quantified by comparative coordinate-based methods such as GM or can be used for finite element modeling (FEM) explorations of hypotheses about

Climate reconstruction by regression - 32 variations on a theme

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Buerger, Gerd; Fast, Irina; Cubasch, Ulrich [FU Berlin (Germany). Inst. fuer Meteorologie

2006-02-15

Regression-based methods fail to provide a sufficiently unique reconstruction of a given millennial history of Northern Hemisphere mean temperature. They instead offer a multitude of variants, depending on the specific data processing scheme. Using a simulated climate history with noise-disturbed pseudo-proxies, we systematically test a set of such configurations, each of which appears to be a priori reasonable, with existing applications elsewhere. This results in an entire spectrum between practically useless and almost perfect reconstructions. The reason lies in the fact that the training variations are not representative of the full millennium, and the regression equations have to be extrapolated. This creates an error that is proportional to both the model uncertainty and the proxy amplitudes. Estimation of that uncertainty is paramount for a useful millennial reconstruction, especially if it is of the parameter-loaded multiproxy type.

SUPERNOVA CONSTRAINTS AND SYSTEMATIC UNCERTAINTIES FROM THE FIRST THREE YEARS OF THE SUPERNOVA LEGACY SURVEY

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Conley, A.; Carlberg, R. G.; Perrett, K. M.; Guy, J.; Regnault, N.; Astier, P.; Balland, C.; Hardin, D.; Pain, R.; Sullivan, M.; Hook, I. M.; Basa, S.; Fouchez, D.; Howell, D. A.; Palanque-Delabrouille, N.; Rich, J.; Ruhlmann-Kleider, V.; Pritchet, C. J.; Balam, D.; Baumont, S.

2011-01-01

We combine high-redshift Type Ia supernovae from the first three years of the Supernova Legacy Survey (SNLS) with other supernova (SN) samples, primarily at lower redshifts, to form a high-quality joint sample of 472 SNe (123 low-z, 93 SDSS, 242 SNLS, and 14 Hubble Space Telescope). SN data alone require cosmic acceleration at >99.999% confidence, including systematic effects. For the dark energy equation of state parameter (assumed constant out to at least z = 1.4) in a flat universe, we find w = -0.91 +0.16 -0.20 (stat) +0.07 -0.14 (sys) from SNe only, consistent with a cosmological constant. Our fits include a correction for the recently discovered relationship between host-galaxy mass and SN absolute brightness. We pay particular attention to systematic uncertainties, characterizing them using a systematic covariance matrix that incorporates the redshift dependence of these effects, as well as the shape-luminosity and color-luminosity relationships. Unlike previous work, we include the effects of systematic terms on the empirical light-curve models. The total systematic uncertainty is dominated by calibration terms. We describe how the systematic uncertainties can be reduced with soon to be available improved nearby and intermediate-redshift samples, particularly those calibrated onto USNO/SDSS-like systems.

Tritium source-related systematic uncertainties of the KATRIN experiment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Seitz-Moskaliuk, Hendrik [Karlsruher Institut fuer Technologie, Institut fuer experimentelle Kernphysik, Hermann-von-Helmholtz-Platz 1, 76344 Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen (Germany); Collaboration: KATRIN-Collaboration

2016-07-01

KATRIN will perform a direct, kinematics-based measurement of the neutrino mass with a sensitivity of 200 meV (90 % C. L.) reached after 3 years of measurement time. The neutrino mass is obtained by determining the shape of the spectrum of tritium β decay electrons close to the endpoint of 18.6 keV with a spectrometer of MAC-E filter type. To achieve the planned sensitivity, the systematic measurement uncertainties have to be carefully controlled and evaluated. Main sources of systematics are the MAC-E filter on the one hand and the source and transport section (STS) on the other hand. Most of the operational parameters of KATRIN have to be stable at or even below the per mille level and have to meet further strict requirements. This talk reviews the KATRIN systematics with a special focus on the STS. Early commissioning measurements to determine the main systematics are introduced.

Uncertainty evaluation for three-dimensional scanning electron microscope reconstructions based on the stereo-pair technique

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Carli, Lorenzo; Genta, G; Cantatore, Angela

2011-01-01

3D-SEM is a method, based on the stereophotogrammetry technique, which obtains three-dimensional topographic reconstructions starting typically from two SEM images, called the stereo-pair. In this work, a theoretical uncertainty evaluation of the stereo-pair technique, according to GUM (Guide to ...

Systematic Review: Aesthetic Assessment of Breast Reconstruction Outcomes by Healthcare Professionals.

Science.gov (United States)

Maass, Saskia W M C; Bagher, Shaghayegh; Hofer, Stefan O P; Baxter, Nancy N; Zhong, Toni

2015-12-01

Achieving an aesthetic outcome following postmastectomy breast reconstruction is both an important goal for the patient and plastic surgeon. However, there is currently an absence of a widely accepted, standardized, and validated professional aesthetic assessment scale following postmastectomy breast reconstruction. A systematic review was performed to identify all articles that provided professional assessment of the aesthetic outcome following postmastectomy, implant- or autologous tissue-based breast reconstruction. A modified version of the Scientific Advisory Committee's Medical Outcomes Trust (MOT) criteria was used to evaluate all professional aesthetic assessment scales identified by our systematic review. The criteria included conceptual framework formation, reliability, validity, responsiveness, interpretability, burden, and correlation with patient-reported outcomes. A total of 120 articles were identified: 52 described autologous breast reconstruction, 37 implant-based reconstruction, and 29 both. Of the 12 different professional aesthetic assessment scales that exist in the literature, the most commonly used scale was the four-point professional aesthetic assessment scale. The highest score on the modified MOT criteria was assigned to the ten-point professional aesthetic assessment scale. However, this scale has limited clinical usefulness due to its poor responsiveness to change, lack of interpretability, and wide range of intra- and inter-rater agreements (Veiga et al. in Ann Plast Surg 48(5):515-520, 2002). A "gold standard" professional aesthetic assessment scale needs to be developed to enhance the comparability of breast reconstruction results across techniques, surgeons, and studies to aid with the selection of procedures that produce the best aesthetic results from both the perspectives of the surgeon and patients.

Reconstruction of Defects After Fournier Gangrene: A Systematic Review.

Science.gov (United States)

Karian, Laurel S; Chung, Stella Y; Lee, Edward S

2015-01-01

Reconstruction of scrotal defects after Fournier gangrene is often achieved with skin grafts or flaps, but there is no general consensus on the best method of reconstruction or how to approach the exposed testicle. We systematically reviewed the literature addressing methods of reconstruction of Fournier defects after debridement. PubMed and Cochrane databases were searched from 1950 to 2013. Inclusion criteria were reconstruction for Fournier defects, patients 18 to 90 years old, and reconstructive complication rates reported as whole numbers or percentages. Exclusion criteria were studies focused on methods of debridement or other phases of care rather than reconstruction, studies with fewer than 5 male patients with Fournier defects, literature reviews, and articles not in English. The initial search yielded 982 studies, which was refined to 16 studies with a total pool of 425 patients. There were 25 (5.9%) patients with defects that healed by secondary intention, 44 (10.4%) with delayed primary closure, 36 (8.5%) with implantation of the testicle in a medial thigh pocket, 6 (1.4%) with loose wound approximation, 96 (22.6%) with skin grafts, 68 (16.0%) with scrotal advancement flaps, 128 (30.1%) with flaps, and 22 (5.2%) with flaps or skin grafts in combination with tissue adhesives. Four outcomes were evaluated: number of patients, defect size, method of reconstruction, and wound-healing complications. Most reconstructive techniques provide reliable coverage and protection of testicular function with an acceptable cosmetic result. There is no conclusive evidence to support flap coverage of exposed testes rather than skin graft. A reconstructive algorithm is proposed. Skin grafting or flap reconstruction is recommended for defects larger than 50% of the scrotum or extending beyond the scrotum, whereas scrotal advancement flap reconstruction or healing by secondary intention is best for defects confined to less than 50% of the scrotum that cannot be closed

Reconstruction of regional mean temperature for East Asia since 1900s and its uncertainties

Science.gov (United States)

Hua, W.

2017-12-01

Regional average surface air temperature (SAT) is one of the key variables often used to investigate climate change. Unfortunately, because of the limited observations over East Asia, there were also some gaps in the observation data sampling for regional mean SAT analysis, which was important to estimate past climate change. In this study, the regional average temperature of East Asia since 1900s is calculated by the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF)-based optimal interpolation (OA) method with considering the data errors. The results show that our estimate is more precise and robust than the results from simple average, which provides a better way for past climate reconstruction. In addition to the reconstructed regional average SAT anomaly time series, we also estimated uncertainties of reconstruction. The root mean square error (RMSE) results show that the the error decreases with respect to time, and are not sufficiently large to alter the conclusions on the persist warming in East Asia during twenty-first century. Moreover, the test of influence of data error on reconstruction clearly shows the sensitivity of reconstruction to the size of the data error.

Breast sensation after breast reconstruction: a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Shridharani, Sachin M; Magarakis, Michael; Stapleton, Sahael M; Basdag, Basak; Seal, Stella M; Rosson, Gedge D

2010-07-01

Studies show some return of breast sensation after breast reconstruction; however, recovery is variable and unpredictable. Efforts are being made to restore innervation by reattaching nerves (neurotization). We sought to systematically review the literature addressing breast sensation after reconstruction. The following databases were searched: EMBASE, Cochrane, and PubMed. Additionally, the PLASTIC AND RECONSTRUCTIVE SURGERY journal was hand searched from 1960 to 2009. Inclusion criteria included breast reconstruction for cancer, return of sensation with objective results, and patients aged 18 to 90 years. Studies with purely cosmetic procedures, case reports, studies with less than 10 patients, and studies involving male patients were excluded. The initial search yielded 109 studies, which was refined to 20 studies with a total pool of 638 patients. Innervated flaps have a greater magnitude of recovery, which occurs at an earlier stage compared with the noninnervated flaps. Overall, sensation to deep inferior epigastric artery perforator flaps may recover better sensation than transverse rectus abdominis myocutaneous flaps, followed by latissimus dorsi flaps, and finally implants. Women's needs and expectations for sensation have led plastic surgeons to investigate ways to facilitate its return. Studies, however, depict conflicting data. Larger series are needed to define the role of neurotization as a modality for improving sensory restoration. Thieme Medical Publishers.

Mapping Soil Transmitted Helminths and Schistosomiasis under Uncertainty: A Systematic Review and Critical Appraisal of Evidence.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrea L Araujo Navas

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Spatial modelling of STH and schistosomiasis epidemiology is now commonplace. Spatial epidemiological studies help inform decisions regarding the number of people at risk as well as the geographic areas that need to be targeted with mass drug administration; however, limited attention has been given to propagated uncertainties, their interpretation, and consequences for the mapped values. Using currently published literature on the spatial epidemiology of helminth infections we identified: (1 the main uncertainty sources, their definition and quantification and (2 how uncertainty is informative for STH programme managers and scientists working in this domain.We performed a systematic literature search using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA protocol. We searched Web of Knowledge and PubMed using a combination of uncertainty, geographic and disease terms. A total of 73 papers fulfilled the inclusion criteria for the systematic review. Only 9% of the studies did not address any element of uncertainty, while 91% of studies quantified uncertainty in the predicted morbidity indicators and 23% of studies mapped it. In addition, 57% of the studies quantified uncertainty in the regression coefficients but only 7% incorporated it in the regression response variable (morbidity indicator. Fifty percent of the studies discussed uncertainty in the covariates but did not quantify it. Uncertainty was mostly defined as precision, and quantified using credible intervals by means of Bayesian approaches.None of the studies considered adequately all sources of uncertainties. We highlighted the need for uncertainty in the morbidity indicator and predictor variable to be incorporated into the modelling framework. Study design and spatial support require further attention and uncertainty associated with Earth observation data should be quantified. Finally, more attention should be given to mapping and interpreting

The Impact of Reconstruction Methods, Phylogenetic Uncertainty and Branch Lengths on Inference of Chromosome Number Evolution in American Daisies (Melampodium, Asteraceae).

Science.gov (United States)

McCann, Jamie; Schneeweiss, Gerald M; Stuessy, Tod F; Villaseñor, Jose L; Weiss-Schneeweiss, Hanna

2016-01-01

Chromosome number change (polyploidy and dysploidy) plays an important role in plant diversification and speciation. Investigating chromosome number evolution commonly entails ancestral state reconstruction performed within a phylogenetic framework, which is, however, prone to uncertainty, whose effects on evolutionary inferences are insufficiently understood. Using the chromosomally diverse plant genus Melampodium (Asteraceae) as model group, we assess the impact of reconstruction method (maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood, Bayesian methods), branch length model (phylograms versus chronograms) and phylogenetic uncertainty (topological and branch length uncertainty) on the inference of chromosome number evolution. We also address the suitability of the maximum clade credibility (MCC) tree as single representative topology for chromosome number reconstruction. Each of the listed factors causes considerable incongruence among chromosome number reconstructions. Discrepancies between inferences on the MCC tree from those made by integrating over a set of trees are moderate for ancestral chromosome numbers, but severe for the difference of chromosome gains and losses, a measure of the directionality of dysploidy. Therefore, reliance on single trees, such as the MCC tree, is strongly discouraged and model averaging, taking both phylogenetic and model uncertainty into account, is recommended. For studying chromosome number evolution, dedicated models implemented in the program ChromEvol and ordered maximum parsimony may be most appropriate. Chromosome number evolution in Melampodium follows a pattern of bidirectional dysploidy (starting from x = 11 to x = 9 and x = 14, respectively) with no prevailing direction.

The Impact of Reconstruction Methods, Phylogenetic Uncertainty and Branch Lengths on Inference of Chromosome Number Evolution in American Daisies (Melampodium, Asteraceae.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jamie McCann

Full Text Available Chromosome number change (polyploidy and dysploidy plays an important role in plant diversification and speciation. Investigating chromosome number evolution commonly entails ancestral state reconstruction performed within a phylogenetic framework, which is, however, prone to uncertainty, whose effects on evolutionary inferences are insufficiently understood. Using the chromosomally diverse plant genus Melampodium (Asteraceae as model group, we assess the impact of reconstruction method (maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood, Bayesian methods, branch length model (phylograms versus chronograms and phylogenetic uncertainty (topological and branch length uncertainty on the inference of chromosome number evolution. We also address the suitability of the maximum clade credibility (MCC tree as single representative topology for chromosome number reconstruction. Each of the listed factors causes considerable incongruence among chromosome number reconstructions. Discrepancies between inferences on the MCC tree from those made by integrating over a set of trees are moderate for ancestral chromosome numbers, but severe for the difference of chromosome gains and losses, a measure of the directionality of dysploidy. Therefore, reliance on single trees, such as the MCC tree, is strongly discouraged and model averaging, taking both phylogenetic and model uncertainty into account, is recommended. For studying chromosome number evolution, dedicated models implemented in the program ChromEvol and ordered maximum parsimony may be most appropriate. Chromosome number evolution in Melampodium follows a pattern of bidirectional dysploidy (starting from x = 11 to x = 9 and x = 14, respectively with no prevailing direction.

Upper limit for Poisson variable incorporating systematic uncertainties by Bayesian approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhu, Yongsheng

2007-01-01

To calculate the upper limit for the Poisson observable at given confidence level with inclusion of systematic uncertainties in background expectation and signal efficiency, formulations have been established along the line of Bayesian approach. A FORTRAN program, BPULE, has been developed to implement the upper limit calculation

Sampling of systematic errors to estimate likelihood weights in nuclear data uncertainty propagation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helgesson, P.; Sjöstrand, H.; Koning, A.J.; Rydén, J.; Rochman, D.; Alhassan, E.; Pomp, S.

2016-01-01

In methodologies for nuclear data (ND) uncertainty assessment and propagation based on random sampling, likelihood weights can be used to infer experimental information into the distributions for the ND. As the included number of correlated experimental points grows large, the computational time for the matrix inversion involved in obtaining the likelihood can become a practical problem. There are also other problems related to the conventional computation of the likelihood, e.g., the assumption that all experimental uncertainties are Gaussian. In this study, a way to estimate the likelihood which avoids matrix inversion is investigated; instead, the experimental correlations are included by sampling of systematic errors. It is shown that the model underlying the sampling methodology (using univariate normal distributions for random and systematic errors) implies a multivariate Gaussian for the experimental points (i.e., the conventional model). It is also shown that the likelihood estimates obtained through sampling of systematic errors approach the likelihood obtained with matrix inversion as the sample size for the systematic errors grows large. In studied practical cases, it is seen that the estimates for the likelihood weights converge impractically slowly with the sample size, compared to matrix inversion. The computational time is estimated to be greater than for matrix inversion in cases with more experimental points, too. Hence, the sampling of systematic errors has little potential to compete with matrix inversion in cases where the latter is applicable. Nevertheless, the underlying model and the likelihood estimates can be easier to intuitively interpret than the conventional model and the likelihood function involving the inverted covariance matrix. Therefore, this work can both have pedagogical value and be used to help motivating the conventional assumption of a multivariate Gaussian for experimental data. The sampling of systematic errors could also

Reconstruction of signals with unknown spectra in information field theory with parameter uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ensslin, Torsten A.; Frommert, Mona

2011-01-01

The optimal reconstruction of cosmic metric perturbations and other signals requires knowledge of their power spectra and other parameters. If these are not known a priori, they have to be measured simultaneously from the same data used for the signal reconstruction. We formulate the general problem of signal inference in the presence of unknown parameters within the framework of information field theory. To solve this, we develop a generic parameter-uncertainty renormalized estimation (PURE) technique. As a concrete application, we address the problem of reconstructing Gaussian signals with unknown power-spectrum with five different approaches: (i) separate maximum-a-posteriori power-spectrum measurement and subsequent reconstruction, (ii) maximum-a-posteriori reconstruction with marginalized power-spectrum, (iii) maximizing the joint posterior of signal and spectrum, (iv) guessing the spectrum from the variance in the Wiener-filter map, and (v) renormalization flow analysis of the field-theoretical problem providing the PURE filter. In all cases, the reconstruction can be described or approximated as Wiener-filter operations with assumed signal spectra derived from the data according to the same recipe, but with differing coefficients. All of these filters, except the renormalized one, exhibit a perception threshold in case of a Jeffreys prior for the unknown spectrum. Data modes with variance below this threshold do not affect the signal reconstruction at all. Filter (iv) seems to be similar to the so-called Karhune-Loeve and Feldman-Kaiser-Peacock estimators for galaxy power spectra used in cosmology, which therefore should also exhibit a marginal perception threshold if correctly implemented. We present statistical performance tests and show that the PURE filter is superior to the others, especially if the post-Wiener-filter corrections are included or in case an additional scale-independent spectral smoothness prior can be adopted.

SYSTEMATIC UNCERTAINTIES IN BLACK HOLE MASSES DETERMINED FROM SINGLE-EPOCH SPECTRA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Denney, Kelly D.; Peterson, Bradley M.; Dietrich, Matthias; Bentz, Misty C.; Vestergaard, Marianne

2009-01-01

We explore the nature of systematic errors that can arise in measurement of black hole masses from single-epoch (SE) spectra of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) by utilizing the many epochs available for NGC 5548 and PG1229+204 from reverberation mapping (RM) databases. In particular, we examine systematics due to AGN variability, contamination due to constant spectral components (i.e., narrow lines and host galaxy flux), data quality (i.e., signal-to-noise ratio (S/N)), and blending of spectral features. We investigate the effect that each of these systematics has on the precision and accuracy of SE masses calculated from two commonly used line width measures by comparing these results to recent RM studies. We calculate masses by characterizing the broad Hβ emission line by both the full width at half maximum and the line dispersion, and demonstrate the importance of removing narrow emission-line components and host starlight. We find that the reliability of line width measurements rapidly decreases for S/N lower than ∼ 10-20 (per pixel), and that fitting the line profiles instead of direct measurement of the data does not mitigate this problem but can, in fact, introduce systematic errors. We also conclude that a full spectral decomposition to deblend the AGN and galaxy spectral features is unnecessary, except to judge the contribution of the host galaxy to the luminosity and to deblend any emission lines that may inhibit accurate line width measurements. Finally, we present an error budget which summarizes the minimum observable uncertainties as well as the amount of additional scatter and/or systematic offset that can be expected from the individual sources of error investigated. In particular, we find that the minimum observable uncertainty in SE mass estimates due to variability is ∼ 20 pixel -1 ) spectra.

Improving the control of systematic uncertainties in precision measurements of radionuclide half-life

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Towers, S.

2013-01-01

Many experiments designed to precisely determine the half-life of a radionuclide employ a long lived reference source to help determine the impact on the data of any systematic variation in the detector and associated electronics. The half-life of the radionuclide of interest is determined from the ratio of its decay rate data to the decay rate data from the reference source. This correction procedure assumes that any underlying systematic affects the data and reference measurements in exactly the same way. In this paper we show that when some systematic effects affect the two differently, the ratio procedure can leave artifacts in the corrected data that can compromise an unbiased and precise assessment of the radionuclide half-life. We describe two methods that can help overcome this problem. We also describe several statistical tests that help determine which effects may underlie systematic variations in the data. We discuss an illustrative example based on previously published 32 Si and 36 Cl data recorded by an experiment at Brookhaven National Laboratory. We correct the data for systematic variation related to climate variation and estimate the 32 Si half-life to be T 1/2 =171.8±1.8. The reduction in uncertainty in the 32 Si half-life, relative to the previous estimate based upon this data, is equivalent to that which would be achieved through increasing the size of the data set by almost 3.5 times. - Author-Highlights: • Isotope decay data and reference source data can have differing systematics. • Differing systematics can inflate uncertainty of isotope half-life estimate. • We describe two methods to overcome this problem. • We describe statistical tests to determine which variables cause systematics. • We analyze Brookhaven 32Si/36Cl decay data as an illustrative example

A systematic framework for effective uncertainty assessment of severe accident calculations; Hybrid qualitative and quantitative methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoseyni, Seyed Mohsen; Pourgol-Mohammad, Mohammad; Tehranifard, Ali Abbaspour; Yousefpour, Faramarz

2014-01-01

This paper describes a systematic framework for characterizing important phenomena and quantifying the degree of contribution of each parameter to the output in severe accident uncertainty assessment. The proposed methodology comprises qualitative as well as quantitative phases. The qualitative part so called Modified PIRT, being a robust process of PIRT for more precise quantification of uncertainties, is a two step process for identifying and ranking based on uncertainty importance in severe accident phenomena. In this process identified severe accident phenomena are ranked according to their effect on the figure of merit and their level of knowledge. Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) serves here as a systematic approach for severe accident phenomena ranking. Formal uncertainty importance technique is used to estimate the degree of credibility of the severe accident model(s) used to represent the important phenomena. The methodology uses subjective justification by evaluating available information and data from experiments, and code predictions for this step. The quantitative part utilizes uncertainty importance measures for the quantification of the effect of each input parameter to the output uncertainty. A response surface fitting approach is proposed for estimating associated uncertainties with less calculation cost. The quantitative results are used to plan in reducing epistemic uncertainty in the output variable(s). The application of the proposed methodology is demonstrated for the ACRR MP-2 severe accident test facility. - Highlights: • A two stage framework for severe accident uncertainty analysis is proposed. • Modified PIRT qualitatively identifies and ranks uncertainty sources more precisely. • Uncertainty importance measure quantitatively calculates effect of each uncertainty source. • Methodology is applied successfully on ACRR MP-2 severe accident test facility

Reporting clinical outcomes of breast reconstruction: a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Potter, S; Brigic, A; Whiting, P F; Cawthorn, S J; Avery, K N L; Donovan, J L; Blazeby, J M

2011-01-05

Breast reconstruction after mastectomy for cancer requires accurate evaluation to inform evidence-based participatory decision making, but the standards of outcome reporting after breast reconstruction have not previously been considered. We used extensive searches to identify articles reporting surgical outcomes of breast reconstruction. We extracted data using published criteria for complication reporting modified to reflect reconstructive practice. Study designs included randomized controlled trials, cohort studies, and case series. The Cochrane Risk of Bias tool was used to critically appraise all study designs. Other criteria used to assess the studies were selection and funding bias, statistical power calculations, and institutional review board approval. Wilcoxon signed rank tests were used to compare the breadth and frequency of study outcomes, and χ² tests were used to compare the number of studies in each group reporting each of the published criteria. All statistical tests were two-sided. Surgical complications following breast reconstruction in 42,146 women were evaluated in 134 studies. These included 11 (8.2%) randomized trials, 74 (55.2%) cohort studies, and 49 (36.6%) case series. Fifty-three percent of studies demonstrated a disparity between methods and results in the numbers of complications reported. Complications were defined by 87 (64.9%) studies and graded by 78 (58.2%). Details such as the duration of follow-up and risk factors for adverse outcomes were omitted from 47 (35.1%) and 58 (43.3%) studies, respectively. Overall, the studies defined fewer than 20% of the complications they reported, and the definitions were largely inconsistent. The results of this systematic review suggest that outcome reporting in breast reconstruction is inconsistent and lacks methodological rigor. The development of a standardized core outcome set is recommended to improve outcome reporting in breast reconstruction.

The Impact of Reconstruction Methods, Phylogenetic Uncertainty and Branch Lengths on Inference of Chromosome Number Evolution in American Daisies (Melampodium, Asteraceae)

OpenAIRE

McCann, Jamie; Schneeweiss, Gerald M.; Stuessy, Tod F.; Villase?or, Jose L.; Weiss-Schneeweiss, Hanna

2016-01-01

Chromosome number change (polyploidy and dysploidy) plays an important role in plant diversification and speciation. Investigating chromosome number evolution commonly entails ancestral state reconstruction performed within a phylogenetic framework, which is, however, prone to uncertainty, whose effects on evolutionary inferences are insufficiently understood. Using the chromosomally diverse plant genus Melampodium (Asteraceae) as model group, we assess the impact of reconstruction method (ma...

Investigation of systematic uncertainties on the measurement of the top-quark mass using lepton transverse momenta

CERN Document Server

The ATLAS collaboration

2018-01-01

This study investigates the impact of systematic uncertainties on a top-quark mass ($m_\\text{top}$) measurement in the lepton+jets channel with the ATLAS experiment at the LHC. For the study, simulated $t\\bar{t}$ events with lepton+jets final states at a centre of mass energy of 8 TeV are used. In contrast to other analyses, this study is designed to exploit the dependence of the lepton kinematics on the top-quark mass, by parameterising the lepton's transverse momentum distribution with MC simulations. Due to its different systematic uncertainty, this method can potentially contribute to a more accurate measurement of $m_\\text{top}$. The overall uncertainty in this study is 2.3 GeV, dominated by the current uncertainty on initial and final state radiation. Since the result depends on the modelling of the top-quark transverse momentum, it is sensitive to higher order QCD corrections. The influence of such corrections is estimated by reweighting the next-to-leading-order MC prediction by next-to-next-to-leadin...

"Anatomic" anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction: a systematic review of surgical techniques and reporting of surgical data

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Eck, Carola F.; Schreiber, Verena M.; Mejia, Hector A.; Samuelsson, Kristian; van Dijk, C. Niek; Karlsson, Jon; Fu, Freddie H.

2010-01-01

PURPOSE: The aim of this systematic review was to evaluate studies published on anatomic double-bundle anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction. METHODS: A systematic electronic search was performed by use of the Medline and Embase databases. Studies that were published from January 1995 to

Muon reconstruction efficiency, momentum scale and resolution in pp collisions at 8TeV with ATLAS

CERN Document Server

Dimitrievska, A; The ATLAS collaboration

2014-01-01

The ATLAS experiment identifies and reconstructs muons with two high precision tracking systems, the Inner Detector and the Muon Spectrometer, which provide independent measurements of the muon momentum. This poster summarizes the performance of the combined muon reconstruction in terms of reconstruction efficiency, momentum scale and resolution. Data-driven techniques are used to derive corrections to be applied to simulation in order to reproduce the reconstruction efficiency, momentum scale and resolution as observed in experimental data, and to asses systematic uncertainties on these quantities. The analysed dataset corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 20.4 fb−1 from 8 TeV pp collisions recorded in 2012.

Tissue engineering strategies for alveolar cleft reconstruction: a systematic review of the literature

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Janssen, N.G.; Weijs, W.L.J.; Koole, R.A.; Rosenberg, A.J.; Meijer, G.J.

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVES: To date, a great number of tissue engineering strategies have been suggested for alveolar cleft reconstruction; however, autologous bone grafting seems to remain the golden standard. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A systematic review of the literature was conducted in order to evaluate the

Quadriceps Tendon Autograft in Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction: A Systematic Review.

Science.gov (United States)

Hurley, Eoghan T; Calvo-Gurry, Manuel; Withers, Dan; Farrington, Shane K; Moran, Ray; Moran, Cathal J

2018-05-01

To systematically review the current evidence to ascertain whether quadriceps tendon autograft (QT) is a viable option in anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction. A literature review was conducted in accordance with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. Cohort studies comparing QT with bone-patellar tendon-bone autograft (BPTB) or hamstring tendon autograft (HT) were included. Clinical outcomes were compared, with all statistical analyses performed using IBM SPSS Statistics for Windows, version 22.0, with P < .05 being considered statistically significant. We identified 15 clinical trials with 1,910 patients. In all included studies, QT resulted in lower rates of anterior knee pain than BPTB. There was no difference in the rate of graft rupture between QT and BPTB or HT in any of the studies reporting this. One study found that QT resulted in greater knee stability than BPTB, and another study found increased stability compared with HT. One study found that QT resulted in improved functional outcomes compared with BPTB, and another found improved outcomes compared with HT, but one study found worse outcomes compared with BPTB. Current literature suggests QT is a viable option in anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction, with published literature showing comparable knee stability, functional outcomes, donor-site morbidity, and rerupture rates compared with BPTB and HT. Level III, systematic review of Level I, II, and III studies. Copyright © 2018 Arthroscopy Association of North America. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Surgical treatment of patellofemoral instability using trochleoplasty or MPFL reconstruction: a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Testa, Enrique Adrian; Camathias, Carlo; Amsler, Felix; Henle, Philipp; Friederich, Niklaus F; Hirschmann, Michael Tobias

2017-08-01

Trochleoplasty and reconstruction of the medial patellofemoral ligament (MPFL) are among the most commonly performed surgical treatments in patients with patellofemoral instability. The primary purpose of the study was to perform a systematic literature review on trochleoplasty in the treatment of patients with patellofemoral instability. The secondary purpose was to compare the outcomes with those seen in patients treated after reconstruction of the MPFL. A standardised search on search engines was performed. All observational and experimental studies dealing with trochleoplasty were then obtained and reviewed in a consensus meeting. Fifteen articles out of 1543 were included and analysed using the CASP appraisal scoring system. Twenty-five studies on MPFL reconstruction were obtained for comparison. The clinical and radiological outcomes were statistically analysed. Both treatment groups showed significant improvement in outcomes from pre- to post-operatively. The mean post-operative Kujala and the Lysholm scores significantly increased in both groups when compared to preoperatively (trochleoplasty group: Kujala 61.4-80.8 and Lysholm 55.5-78.5; MPFL group: Kujala 46.9-88.8 and Lysholm 59.9-91.1). Post-operatively a positive apprehension test was found in 20 and 8 % of the trochleoplasty and MPFL groups, respectively. No significant differences in redislocation (2 %) and subluxation (5-6 %) rates were found. This systematic review showed that both trochleoplasty and MPFL reconstruction are able to deliver good clinical outcomes with stable patellofemoral joints. III.

Assessing value in breast reconstruction: A systematic review of cost-effectiveness studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Sheckter, Clifford C; Matros, Evan; Momeni, Arash

2018-03-01

Breast reconstruction is one of the most common procedures performed by plastic surgeons and is achieved through various choices in both technology and method. Cost-effectiveness analyses are increasingly important in assessing differences in value between treatment options, which is relevant in a world of confined resources. A thorough evaluation of the cost-effectiveness literature can assist surgeons and health systems evaluate high-value care models. A systematic review of PubMed, Web of Science, and the Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Registry was conducted. Two reviewers independently evaluated all publications up until August 17, 2017. After removal of duplicates, 1996 records were screened, from which 53 studies underwent full text review. All the 13 studies included for final analysis mention an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. Five studies evaluated the cost-effectiveness of technologies including acellular dermal matrix (ADM) in staged prosthetic reconstruction, ADM in direct-to-implant (DTI) reconstruction, preoperative computed tomography angiography in autologous reconstruction, indocyanine green dye angiography in evaluating anastomotic patency, and abdominal mesh reinforcement in abdominal tissue transfer. The remaining eight studies evaluated the cost-effectiveness of different reconstruction methods. Cost-effective strategies included free vs. pedicled abdominal tissue transfer, DTI vs. staged prosthetic reconstruction, and fascia-sparing variants of free abdominal tissue transfer. Current evidence demonstrates multiple cost-effective technologies and methods in accomplishing successful breast reconstruction. Plastic surgeons should be well informed of such economic models when engaging payers and policymakers in discussions regarding high-value breast reconstruction. Copyright © 2017 British Association of Plastic, Reconstructive and Aesthetic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Muon reconstruction efficiency, momentum scale and resolution in pp collisions at 8TeV with ATLAS

CERN Document Server

Dimitrievska, A; The ATLAS collaboration; Sforza, F

2014-01-01

The ATLAS experiment identifies and reconstructs muons with two high precision tracking systems, the inner detector and the muon spectrometer, which provide independent measurements of the muon momentum. This poster summarizes the performance of the combined muon reconstruction in terms of reconstruction efficiency, momentum scale and resolution. Data-driven techniques are used to derive corrections to be applied to simulation in order to reproduce the reconstruction efficiency, momentum scale and resolution as observed in experimental data, and to asses systematic uncertainties on these quantities. The analysed dataset corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 20.4 fb−1 from pp collisions at center of mass enegy of 8 TeV recorded in 2012.

Improving LiDAR Biomass Model Uncertainty through Non-Destructive Allometry and Plot-level 3D Reconstruction with Terrestrial Laser Scanning

Science.gov (United States)

Stovall, A. E.; Shugart, H. H., Jr.

2017-12-01

Future NASA and ESA satellite missions plan to better quantify global carbon through detailed observations of forest structure, but ultimately rely on uncertain ground measurement approaches for calibration and validation. A significant amount of the uncertainty in estimating plot-level biomass can be attributed to inadequate and unrepresentative allometric relationships used to convert plot-level tree measurements to estimates of aboveground biomass. These allometric equations are known to have high errors and biases, particularly in carbon rich forests because they were calibrated with small and often biased samples of destructively harvested trees. To overcome this issue, a non-destructive methodology for estimating tree and plot-level biomass has been proposed through the use of Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS). We investigated the potential for using TLS as a ground validation approach in LiDAR-based biomass mapping though virtual plot-level tree volume reconstruction and biomass estimation. Plot-level biomass estimates were compared on the Virginia-based Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute's SIGEO forest with full 3D reconstruction, TLS allometry, and Jenkins et al. (2003) allometry. On average, full 3D reconstruction ultimately provided the lowest uncertainty estimate of plot-level biomass (9.6%), followed by TLS allometry (16.9%) and the national equations (20.2%). TLS offered modest improvements to the airborne LiDAR empirical models, reducing RMSE from 16.2% to 14%. Our findings suggest TLS plot acquisitions and non-destructive allometry can play a vital role for reducing uncertainty in calibration and validation data for biomass mapping in the upcoming NASA and ESA missions.

Fast emulation of track reconstruction in the CMS simulation

CERN Document Server

Komm, Matthias

2017-01-01

Simulated samples of various physics processes are a key ingredient within analyses to unlock the physics behind LHC collision data. Samples with more and more statistics are required to keep up with the increasing amounts of recorded data. During sample generation, significant computing time is spent on the reconstruction of charged particle tracks from energy deposits which additionally scales with the pileup conditions. In CMS, the FastSimulation package is developed for providing a fast alternative to the standard simulation and reconstruction workflow. It employs various techniques to emulate track reconstruction effects in particle collision events. Several analysis groups in CMS are utilizing the package, in particular those requiring many samples to scan the parameter space of physics models (e.g. SUSY) or for the purpose of estimating systematic uncertainties. The strategies for and recent developments in this emulation are presented, including a novel, flexible implementation of tracking emulation w...

A systematic review of acelluar dermal matrices in head and neck reconstruction.

Science.gov (United States)

Shridharani, Sachin M; Tufaro, Anthony P

2012-11-01

The use of acellular dermal matrices has been well described in the scientific literature since the early 1990 s and has been utilized for multiple applications in the head and neck for both aesthetic and reconstructive efforts. After systematically searching the PubMed database and following further refinement (based on the authors' inclusion and exclusion criteria), the authors identified 30 studies that provided information about patients who had undergone head and neck reconstruction with the use of acellular dermal matrix. Studies had to report quantifiable objective results in patients who were older than 1 year and younger than 90 years. The authors excluded single case reports, studies with fewer than 10 patients, and studies not published in English. The optimal material used as an implant for reconstruction possesses the following properties: facilitation of vascular ingrowth, decreased propensity to incite inflammation, biologic inertness, resistance to infection, and ease of handling. Acellular dermal matrix possesses many of these properties and is utilized in reconstructing nasal soft tissue and skeletal support, tympanic membrane, periorbital soft tissue, extraoral and intraoral defects, oropharyngeal defects, dura mater, and soft-tissue deficits from parotidectomy. Furthermore, it is used to assist in preventing Frey syndrome following parotidectomy and surgical treatment of facial paralysis. Use of acellular dermal matrix for head and neck reconstruction has expanded exponentially and is validated in many studies. Further prospective randomized control trials are warranted to further investigate the efficacy of acellular dermal matrix in head and neck reconstruction.

Uncertainty analysis guide

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andres, T.H.

2002-05-01

This guide applies to the estimation of uncertainty in quantities calculated by scientific, analysis and design computer programs that fall within the scope of AECL's software quality assurance (SQA) manual. The guide weaves together rational approaches from the SQA manual and three other diverse sources: (a) the CSAU (Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty) evaluation methodology; (b) the ISO Guide,for the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement; and (c) the SVA (Systems Variability Analysis) method of risk analysis. This report describes the manner by which random and systematic uncertainties in calculated quantities can be estimated and expressed. Random uncertainty in model output can be attributed to uncertainties of inputs. The propagation of these uncertainties through a computer model can be represented in a variety of ways, including exact calculations, series approximations and Monte Carlo methods. Systematic uncertainties emerge from the development of the computer model itself, through simplifications and conservatisms, for example. These must be estimated and combined with random uncertainties to determine the combined uncertainty in a model output. This report also addresses the method by which uncertainties should be employed in code validation, in order to determine whether experiments and simulations agree, and whether or not a code satisfies the required tolerance for its application. (author)

Uncertainty analysis guide

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Andres, T.H

2002-05-01

This guide applies to the estimation of uncertainty in quantities calculated by scientific, analysis and design computer programs that fall within the scope of AECL's software quality assurance (SQA) manual. The guide weaves together rational approaches from the SQA manual and three other diverse sources: (a) the CSAU (Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty) evaluation methodology; (b) the ISO Guide,for the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement; and (c) the SVA (Systems Variability Analysis) method of risk analysis. This report describes the manner by which random and systematic uncertainties in calculated quantities can be estimated and expressed. Random uncertainty in model output can be attributed to uncertainties of inputs. The propagation of these uncertainties through a computer model can be represented in a variety of ways, including exact calculations, series approximations and Monte Carlo methods. Systematic uncertainties emerge from the development of the computer model itself, through simplifications and conservatisms, for example. These must be estimated and combined with random uncertainties to determine the combined uncertainty in a model output. This report also addresses the method by which uncertainties should be employed in code validation, in order to determine whether experiments and simulations agree, and whether or not a code satisfies the required tolerance for its application. (author)

Commissioning of the double Penning trap system MLLTRAP and first studies on mass-dependent systematic uncertainties

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Krug, Kevin; Weber, Christine; Thirolf, Peter G.; Szerypo, Jerzy; Gartzke, Eva; Habs, Dietrich [Fakultaet fuer Physik, LMU Muenchen (Germany); Kolhinen, Veli [Fakultaet fuer Physik, LMU Muenchen (Germany); Department of Physics, University of Jyvaeskylae (Finland)

2010-07-01

The cylindrical double Penning trap system MLLTRAP in its commissioning phase at the Maier-Leibnitz-Laboratory (MLL) Tandem accelerator in Garching is designed to perform high-accuracy mass measurements on fusion-reaction products. As the mass uncertainty is inversely proportional to the ionic charge state, the ions of interest will be charge bred prior to injection into the Penning trap system. In the future setup, both traps are foreseen to be operated as measurement traps with a relative homogeneity of the magnetic field at the trapping sites of {delta}B/B{<=}0.3 ppm. In the commissioning phase, an offline surface ionization source is used for iterative optimization of the apparatus and studies on mass-dependent systematic uncertainties. Mass measurements via the time-of-flight ion cyclotron resonance method (TOF-ICR) of reference ions with well-known masses ({sup 85}Rb, {sup 87}Rb, {sup 39}K, {sup 133}Cs) were carried out to analyze mass-dependent systematic effects. Together with previous studies on the uncertainty due to magnetic-field fluctuations the current status with respect to the limits of mass accuracy of the apparatus is presented.

Systematic uncertainties in the Monte Carlo calculation of ion chamber replacement correction factors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, L. L. W.; La Russa, D. J.; Rogers, D. W. O. [Ottawa Carleton Institute of Physics, Carleton University, Campus Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario KIS 5B6 (Canada)

2009-05-15

In a previous study [Med. Phys. 35, 1747-1755 (2008)], the authors proposed two direct methods of calculating the replacement correction factors (P{sub repl} or p{sub cav}p{sub dis}) for ion chambers by Monte Carlo calculation. By ''direct'' we meant the stopping-power ratio evaluation is not necessary. The two methods were named as the high-density air (HDA) and low-density water (LDW) methods. Although the accuracy of these methods was briefly discussed, it turns out that the assumption made regarding the dose in an HDA slab as a function of slab thickness is not correct. This issue is reinvestigated in the current study, and the accuracy of the LDW method applied to ion chambers in a {sup 60}Co photon beam is also studied. It is found that the two direct methods are in fact not completely independent of the stopping-power ratio of the two materials involved. There is an implicit dependence of the calculated P{sub repl} values upon the stopping-power ratio evaluation through the choice of an appropriate energy cutoff {Delta}, which characterizes a cavity size in the Spencer-Attix cavity theory. Since the {Delta} value is not accurately defined in the theory, this dependence on the stopping-power ratio results in a systematic uncertainty on the calculated P{sub repl} values. For phantom materials of similar effective atomic number to air, such as water and graphite, this systematic uncertainty is at most 0.2% for most commonly used chambers for either electron or photon beams. This uncertainty level is good enough for current ion chamber dosimetry, and the merits of the two direct methods of calculating P{sub repl} values are maintained, i.e., there is no need to do a separate stopping-power ratio calculation. For high-Z materials, the inherent uncertainty would make it practically impossible to calculate reliable P{sub repl} values using the two direct methods.

A Systematic Review of the Role of Robotics in Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery—From Inception to the Future

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thomas D. Dobbs

2017-11-01

Full Text Available BackgroundThe use of robots in surgery has become commonplace in many specialties. In this systematic review, we report on the current uses of robotics in plastic and reconstructive surgery and looks to future roles for robotics in this arena.MethodsA systematic literature search of Medline, EMBASE, and Scopus was performed using appropriate search terms in order to identify all applications of robot-assistance in plastic and reconstructive surgery. All articles were reviewed by two authors and a qualitative synthesis performed of those articles that met the inclusion criteria. The systematic review and results were conducted and reported in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta Analysis (PRISMA guidelines.ResultsA total of 7,904 articles were identified for title and abstract review. Sixty-eight studies met the inclusion criteria. Robotic assistance in plastic and reconstructive surgery is still in its infancy, with areas such as trans-oral robotic surgery and microvascular procedures the dominant areas of interest currently. A number of benefits have been shown over conventional open surgery, such as improved access and greater dexterity; however, these must be balanced against disadvantages such as the lack of haptic feedback and cost implications.ConclusionThe feasibility of robotic plastic surgery has been demonstrated in several specific indications. As technology, knowledge, and skills in this area improve, these techniques have the potential to contribute positively to patient and provider experience and outcomes.

Trajectory Reconstruction and Uncertainty Analysis Using Mars Science Laboratory Pre-Flight Scale Model Aeroballistic Testing

Science.gov (United States)

Lugo, Rafael A.; Tolson, Robert H.; Schoenenberger, Mark

2013-01-01

As part of the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) trajectory reconstruction effort at NASA Langley Research Center, free-flight aeroballistic experiments of instrumented MSL scale models was conducted at Aberdeen Proving Ground in Maryland. The models carried an inertial measurement unit (IMU) and a flush air data system (FADS) similar to the MSL Entry Atmospheric Data System (MEADS) that provided data types similar to those from the MSL entry. Multiple sources of redundant data were available, including tracking radar and on-board magnetometers. These experimental data enabled the testing and validation of the various tools and methodologies that will be used for MSL trajectory reconstruction. The aerodynamic parameters Mach number, angle of attack, and sideslip angle were estimated using minimum variance with a priori to combine the pressure data and pre-flight computational fluid dynamics (CFD) data. Both linear and non-linear pressure model terms were also estimated for each pressure transducer as a measure of the errors introduced by CFD and transducer calibration. Parameter uncertainties were estimated using a "consider parameters" approach.

The clustering of galaxies in the completed SDSS-III Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey: theoretical systematics and Baryon Acoustic Oscillations in the galaxy correlation function

Science.gov (United States)

Vargas-Magaña, Mariana; Ho, Shirley; Cuesta, Antonio J.; O'Connell, Ross; Ross, Ashley J.; Eisenstein, Daniel J.; Percival, Will J.; Grieb, Jan Niklas; Sánchez, Ariel G.; Tinker, Jeremy L.; Tojeiro, Rita; Beutler, Florian; Chuang, Chia-Hsun; Kitaura, Francisco-Shu; Prada, Francisco; Rodríguez-Torres, Sergio A.; Rossi, Graziano; Seo, Hee-Jong; Brownstein, Joel R.; Olmstead, Matthew; Thomas, Daniel

2018-06-01

We investigate the potential sources of theoretical systematics in the anisotropic Baryon Acoustic Oscillation (BAO) distance scale measurements from the clustering of galaxies in configuration space using the final Data Release (DR12) of the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS). We perform a detailed study of the impact on BAO measurements from choices in the methodology such as fiducial cosmology, clustering estimators, random catalogues, fitting templates, and covariance matrices. The theoretical systematic uncertainties in BAO parameters are found to be 0.002 in the isotropic dilation α and 0.003 in the quadrupolar dilation ɛ. The leading source of systematic uncertainty is related to the reconstruction techniques. Theoretical uncertainties are sub-dominant compared with the statistical uncertainties for BOSS survey, accounting 0.2σstat for α and 0.25σstat for ɛ (σα, stat ˜ 0.010 and σɛ, stat ˜ 0.012, respectively). We also present BAO-only distance scale constraints from the anisotropic analysis of the correlation function. Our constraints on the angular diameter distance DA(z) and the Hubble parameter H(z), including both statistical and theoretical systematic uncertainties, are 1.5 per cent and 2.8 per cent at zeff = 0.38, 1.4 per cent and 2.4 per cent at zeff = 0.51, and 1.7 per cent and 2.6 per cent at zeff = 0.61. This paper is part of a set that analyses the final galaxy clustering data set from BOSS. The measurements and likelihoods presented here are cross-checked with other BAO analysis in Alam et al. The systematic error budget concerning the methodology on post-reconstruction BAO analysis presented here is used in Alam et al. to produce the final cosmological constraints from BOSS.

Reconstruction, Energy Calibration, and Identification of Hadronically Decaying Tau Leptons in the ATLAS Experiment for Run-2 of the LHC

CERN Document Server

The ATLAS collaboration

2015-01-01

The reconstruction algorithm, energy calibration, and identification methods for hadronically decaying tau leptons in ATLAS used at the start of Run-2 of the Large Hadron Collider are described in this note. All algorithms have been optimised for Run-2 conditions. The energy calibration relies on Monte Carlo samples with hadronic tau lepton decays, and applies multiplicative factors based on the pT of the reconstructed tau lepton to the energy measurements in the calorimeters. The identification employs boosted decision trees. Systematic uncertainties on the energy scale, reconstruction efficiency and identification efficiency of hadronically decaying tau leptons are determined using Monte Carlo samples that simulate varying conditions.

Efficacy and Safety of Autologous Fat Transfer in Facial Reconstructive Surgery: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Krastev, Todor K; Beugels, Jip; Hommes, Juliette; Piatkowski, Andrzej; Mathijssen, Irene; van der Hulst, Rene

2018-03-29

The use of autologous fat transfer (AFT) or lipofilling for correcting contour deformities is seen as one of the major breakthroughs in reconstructive plastic surgery. Its applications in facial reconstructive surgery have been of particular interest owing to the prospect of achieving autologous reconstruction by a minimally invasive approach. However, its unpredictability and variable degree of resorption have limited its utility and much skepticism still exists regarding its efficacy. Furthermore, more than 2 decades of clinical research have produced a highly fragmented body of evidence that has not been able to provide definite answers. To investigate the safety and efficacy of AFT in facial reconstruction through a systematic review and meta-analysis. A literature search was performed in PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Library from inception to October 11, 2017. All published studies investigating the efficacy and safety of AFT in facial reconstructive surgery. Two independent reviewers performed data extraction systematically, adhering to the PRISMA guidelines. Summary measures were pooled in a random-effects model meta-analysis. The patient and surgeon satisfaction, graft survival, number of AFT sessions, and the incidence of AFT-related complications were the main outcomes of interest in this meta-analysis. This systematic review resulted in the inclusion 52 relevant studies consisting of 1568 unique patients. These included 4 randomized clinical trials, 11 cohort studies, and 37 case series. The overall follow-up averaged 1.3 years after AFT. Meta-analysis revealed a very high overall patient satisfaction rate of 91.1% (95% CI, 85.1%-94.8%) and overall surgeon satisfaction rate of 88.6% (95% CI, 83.4%-92.4%). The number of AFT sessions required to achieve the desired result was 1.5 (95% CI, 1.3-1.7) and 50% to 60% of the injected volume was retained at 1 year. Only 4.8% (95% CI, 3.3%-6.9%) of procedures resulted in clinical complications. To our knowledge

Quantifying uncertainty in coral Sr/Ca-based SST estimates from Orbicella faveolata: A basis for multi-colony SST reconstructions

Science.gov (United States)

Richey, J. N.; Flannery, J. A.; Toth, L. T.; Kuffner, I. B.; Poore, R. Z.

2017-12-01

The Sr/Ca in massive corals can be used as a proxy for sea surface temperature (SST) in shallow tropical to sub-tropical regions; however, the relationship between Sr/Ca and SST varies throughout the ocean, between different species of coral, and often between different colonies of the same species. We aimed to quantify the uncertainty associated with the Sr/Ca-SST proxy due to sample handling (e.g., micro-drilling or analytical error), vital effects (e.g., among-colony differences in coral growth), and local-scale variability in microhabitat. We examine the intra- and inter-colony reproducibility of Sr/Ca records extracted from five modern Orbicella faveolata colonies growing in the Dry Tortugas, Florida, USA. The average intra-colony absolute difference (AD) in Sr/Ca of the five colonies during an overlapping interval (1997-2008) was 0.055 ± 0.044 mmol mol-1 (0.96 ºC) and the average inter-colony Sr/Ca AD was 0.039 ± 0.01 mmol mol-1 (0.51 ºC). All available Sr/Ca-SST data pairs from 1997-2008 were combined and regressed against the HadISST1 gridded SST data set (24 ºN and 82 ºW) to produce a calibration equation that could be applied to O. faveolata specimens from throughout the Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean/Atlantic region after accounting for the potential uncertainties in Sr/Ca-derived SSTs. We quantified a combined error term for O. faveolata using the root-sum-square (RMS) of the analytical, intra-, and inter-colony uncertainties and suggest that an overall uncertainty of 0.046 mmol mol-1 (0.81 ºC, 1σ), should be used to interpret Sr/Ca records from O. faveolata specimens of unknown age or origin to reconstruct SST. We also explored how uncertainty is affected by the number of corals used in a reconstruction by iteratively calculating the RMS error for composite coral time-series using two, three, four, and five overlapping coral colonies. Our results indicate that maximum RMS error at the 95% confidence interval on mean annual SST estimates is 1.4 º

Evidence-Based ACL Reconstruction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. Carlos RODRIGUEZ-MERCHAN

2015-01-01

Full Text Available There is controversy in the literature regarding a number of topics related to anterior cruciate ligament (ACLreconstruction. The purpose of this article is to answer the following questions: 1 Bone patellar tendon bone (BPTB reconstruction or hamstring reconstruction (HR; 2 Double bundle or single bundle; 3 Allograft or authograft; 4 Early or late reconstruction; 5 Rate of return to sports after ACL reconstruction; 6 Rate of osteoarthritis after ACL reconstruction. A Cochrane Library and PubMed (MEDLINE search of systematic reviews and meta-analysis related to ACL reconstruction was performed. The key words were: ACL reconstruction, systematic reviews and meta-analysis. The main criteria for selection were that the articles were systematic reviews and meta-analysesfocused on the aforementioned questions. Sixty-nine articles were found, but only 26 were selected and reviewed because they had a high grade (I-II of evidence. BPTB-R was associated with better postoperative knee stability but with a higher rate of morbidity. However, the results of both procedures in terms of functional outcome in the long-term were similar. The double-bundle ACL reconstruction technique showed better outcomes in rotational laxity, although functional recovery was similar between single-bundle and double-bundle. Autograft yielded better results than allograft. There was no difference between early and delayed reconstruction. 82% of patients were able to return to some kind of sport participation. 28% of patients presented radiological signs of osteoarthritis with a follow-up of minimum 10 years.

Measurement of the Time-Dependent CP Asymmetry of Partially Reconstructed B0 to D*+D*- Decays

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lees, J. P.

2012-08-13

We present a new measurement of the time-dependent CP asymmetry of B{sup 0} {yields}D*{sup +}D*{sup -} decays using (471 {+-} 5) million B{bar B} pairs collected with the BABAR detector at the PEP-II B Factory at the SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory. Using the technique of partial reconstruction, we measure the time-dependent CP asymmetry parameters S = -0.34 {+-} 0.12 {+-} 0.05 and C = +0:15 {+-} 0.09 {+-} 0.04. Using the value for the CP-odd fraction R{perpendicular} = 0.158 {+-} 0.028 {+-} 0.006, previously measured by BABAR with fully reconstructed B{sup 0} {yields} D{sup *+}D{sup *-} events, we extract the CP-even components S{sub +} = -0.49 {+-} 0.18 {+-} 0.07 {+-} 0.04 and C{sub +} = +0.15 {+-} 0.09 {+-} 0.04. In each case, the first uncertainty is statistical and the second is systematic; the third uncertainty on S{sub +} is the contribution from the uncertainty on R{perpendicular}. The measured value of the CP-even component S{sub +} is consistent with the value of sin 2{beta} measured in b {yields} (c{bar c})s transitions, and with the Standard Model expectation of small penguin contributions.

Propagation of dynamic measurement uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hessling, J P

2011-01-01

The time-dependent measurement uncertainty has been evaluated in a number of recent publications, starting from a known uncertain dynamic model. This could be defined as the 'downward' propagation of uncertainty from the model to the targeted measurement. The propagation of uncertainty 'upward' from the calibration experiment to a dynamic model traditionally belongs to system identification. The use of different representations (time, frequency, etc) is ubiquitous in dynamic measurement analyses. An expression of uncertainty in dynamic measurements is formulated for the first time in this paper independent of representation, joining upward as well as downward propagation. For applications in metrology, the high quality of the characterization may be prohibitive for any reasonably large and robust model to pass the whiteness test. This test is therefore relaxed by not directly requiring small systematic model errors in comparison to the randomness of the characterization. Instead, the systematic error of the dynamic model is propagated to the uncertainty of the measurand, analogously but differently to how stochastic contributions are propagated. The pass criterion of the model is thereby transferred from the identification to acceptance of the total accumulated uncertainty of the measurand. This increases the relevance of the test of the model as it relates to its final use rather than the quality of the calibration. The propagation of uncertainty hence includes the propagation of systematic model errors. For illustration, the 'upward' propagation of uncertainty is applied to determine if an appliance box is damaged in an earthquake experiment. In this case, relaxation of the whiteness test was required to reach a conclusive result

Uncertainty in Historical Land-Use Reconstructions with Topographic Maps

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kaim Dominik

2014-09-01

Full Text Available The paper presents the outcomes of the uncertainty investigation of a long-term forest cover change analysis in the Polish Carpathians (nearly 20,000 km2 and Swiss Alps (nearly 10,000 km2 based on topographic maps. Following Leyk et al. (2005 all possible uncertainties are grouped into three domains - production-oriented, transformation- oriented and application-oriented. We show typical examples for each uncertainty domain, encountered during the forest cover change analysis and discuss consequences for change detection. Finally, a proposal for reliability assessment is presented.

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses Plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simpson, J.C.; Ramsdell, J.V. Jr.

1993-04-01

Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project staff are developing mathematical models to be used to estimate the radiation dose that individuals may have received as a result of emissions since 1944 from the US Department of Energy's (DOE) Hanford Site near Richland, Washington. An uncertainty and sensitivity analyses plan is essential to understand and interpret the predictions from these mathematical models. This is especially true in the case of the HEDR models where the values of many parameters are unknown. This plan gives a thorough documentation of the uncertainty and hierarchical sensitivity analysis methods recommended for use on all HEDR mathematical models. The documentation includes both technical definitions and examples. In addition, an extensive demonstration of the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis process is provided using actual results from the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Integrated Codes (HEDRIC). This demonstration shows how the approaches used in the recommended plan can be adapted for all dose predictions in the HEDR Project

Helioseismic and neutrino data-driven reconstruction of solar properties

Science.gov (United States)

Song, Ningqiang; Gonzalez-Garcia, M. C.; Villante, Francesco L.; Vinyoles, Nuria; Serenelli, Aldo

2018-06-01

In this work, we use Bayesian inference to quantitatively reconstruct the solar properties most relevant to the solar composition problem using as inputs the information provided by helioseismic and solar neutrino data. In particular, we use a Gaussian process to model the functional shape of the opacity uncertainty to gain flexibility and become as free as possible from prejudice in this regard. With these tools we first readdress the statistical significance of the solar composition problem. Furthermore, starting from a composition unbiased set of standard solar models (SSMs) we are able to statistically select those with solar chemical composition and other solar inputs which better describe the helioseismic and neutrino observations. In particular, we are able to reconstruct the solar opacity profile in a data-driven fashion, independently of any reference opacity tables, obtaining a 4 per cent uncertainty at the base of the convective envelope and 0.8 per cent at the solar core. When systematic uncertainties are included, results are 7.5 per cent and 2 per cent, respectively. In addition, we find that the values of most of the other inputs of the SSMs required to better describe the helioseismic and neutrino data are in good agreement with those adopted as the standard priors, with the exception of the astrophysical factor S11 and the microscopic diffusion rates, for which data suggests a 1 per cent and 30 per cent reduction, respectively. As an output of the study we derive the corresponding data-driven predictions for the solar neutrino fluxes.

Measure of the uncertainty associated with the reconstruction of applicators in adaptive guided brachytherapy by resonance; Medida de la incertidumbre asociada a la reconstruccion de aplicadores en braquiterapia adaptativa guiada por resonancia

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Torres Pozas, S.; Federico, M.; Perez Molina, J. L.; Marti Asenjo, J.; Sanchez Carrascal, M.; Macias verde, D.; Ruiz Egea, E.; Lara Jimenez, P.; Martin Oliva, R.

2013-07-01

The objective of this study is to assess the uncertainty introduced in the process to rebuild the catheters using three methods, manual reconstruction from a template elaborate service, auto-rebuild with the software included in the TPS and reconstruction from radiopaque mannequins in CT and subsequent merger. (Author)

Uncertainties in historical pollution data from sedimentary records from an Australian urban floodplain lake

Science.gov (United States)

Lintern, A.; Leahy, P.; Deletic, A.; Heijnis, H.; Zawadzki, A.; Gadd, P.; McCarthy, D.

2018-05-01

Sediment cores from aquatic environments can provide valuable information about historical pollution levels and sources. However, there is little understanding of the uncertainties associated with these findings. The aim of this study is to fill this knowledge gap by proposing a framework for quantifying the uncertainties in historical heavy metal pollution records reconstructed from sediment cores. This uncertainty framework consists of six sources of uncertainty: uncertainties in (1) metals analysis methods, (2) spatial variability of sediment core heavy metal profiles, (3) sub-sampling intervals, (4) the sediment chronology, (5) the assumption that metal levels in bed sediments reflect the magnitude of metal inputs into the aquatic system, and (6) post-depositional transformation of metals. We apply this uncertainty framework to an urban floodplain lake in South-East Australia (Willsmere Billabong). We find that for this site, uncertainties in historical dated heavy metal profiles can be up to 176%, largely due to uncertainties in the sediment chronology, and in the assumption that the settled heavy metal mass is equivalent to the heavy metal mass entering the aquatic system. As such, we recommend that future studies reconstructing historical pollution records using sediment cores from aquatic systems undertake an investigation of the uncertainties in the reconstructed pollution record, using the uncertainty framework provided in this study. We envisage that quantifying and understanding the uncertainties associated with the reconstructed pollution records will facilitate the practical application of sediment core heavy metal profiles in environmental management projects.

A systematic approach to assessing measurement uncertainty for CO2 emissions from coal-fired power plants

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wagner, Claas; Esbensen, Kim

2011-01-01

An augmented measurement uncertainty approach for CO2 emissions from coal-fired power plants with a focus on the often forgotten contributions from sampling errors occurring over the entire fuel-to-emission pathway is presented. Current methods for CO2 emission determination are evaluated in detail......, from which a general matrix scheme is developed that includes all factors and stages needed for total CO2 determination, which is applied to the monitoring plan of a representative medium-sized coal-fired power plant. In particular sampling involved significant potential errors, as identified...... of these three materials were also given full attention. A systematic error (bias) is present in the current sampling approach, which increases the present uncertainty estimate unnecessarily. For both primary sampling and analytical sample extraction steps, random variations, which hitherto only have been...

Phylogenetic uncertainty can bias the number of evolutionary transitions estimated from ancestral state reconstruction methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Duchêne, Sebastian; Lanfear, Robert

2015-09-01

Ancestral state reconstruction (ASR) is a popular method for exploring the evolutionary history of traits that leave little or no trace in the fossil record. For example, it has been used to test hypotheses about the number of evolutionary origins of key life-history traits such as oviparity, or key morphological structures such as wings. Many studies that use ASR have suggested that the number of evolutionary origins of such traits is higher than was previously thought. The scope of such inferences is increasing rapidly, facilitated by the construction of very large phylogenies and life-history databases. In this paper, we use simulations to show that the number of evolutionary origins of a trait tends to be overestimated when the phylogeny is not perfect. In some cases, the estimated number of transitions can be several fold higher than the true value. Furthermore, we show that the bias is not always corrected by standard approaches to account for phylogenetic uncertainty, such as repeating the analysis on a large collection of possible trees. These findings have important implications for studies that seek to estimate the number of origins of a trait, particularly those that use large phylogenies that are associated with considerable uncertainty. We discuss the implications of this bias, and methods to ameliorate it. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Performance of Missing Transverse Momentum Reconstruction in Proton-Proton Collisions at $\\sqrt{s}$ = 7 TeV with ATLAS

CERN Document Server

Aad, Georges; Abdallah, Jalal; Abdelalim, Ahmed Ali; Abdesselam, Abdelouahab; Abdinov, Ovsat; Abi, Babak; Abolins, Maris; Abramowicz, Halina; Abreu, Henso; Acerbi, Emilio; Acharya, Bobby Samir; Adams, David; Addy, Tetteh; Adelman, Jahred; Aderholz, Michael; Adomeit, Stefanie; Adragna, Paolo; Adye, Tim; Aefsky, Scott; Aguilar-Saavedra, Juan Antonio; Aharrouche, Mohamed; Ahlen, Steven; Ahles, Florian; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Ahsan, Mahsana; Aielli, Giulio; Akdogan, Taylan; Akesson, Torsten Paul; Akimoto, Ginga; Akimov, Andrei; Akiyama, Kunihiro; Alam, Mohammad; Alam, Muhammad Aftab; Albert, Justin; Albrand, Solveig; Aleksa, Martin; Aleksandrov, Igor; Alessandria, Franco; Alexa, Calin; Alexander, Gideon; Alexandre, Gauthier; Alexopoulos, Theodoros; Alhroob, Muhammad; Aliev, Malik; Alimonti, Gianluca; Alison, John; Aliyev, Magsud; Allport, Phillip; Allwood-Spiers, Sarah; Almond, John; Aloisio, Alberto; Alon, Raz; Alonso, Alejandro; Alviggi, Mariagrazia; Amako, Katsuya; Amaral, Pedro; Amelung, Christoph; Ammosov, Vladimir; Amorim, Antonio; Amoros, Gabriel; Amram, Nir; Anastopoulos, Christos; Ancu, Lucian Stefan; Andari, Nansi; Andeen, Timothy; Anders, Christoph Falk; Anders, Gabriel; Anderson, Kelby; Andreazza, Attilio; Andrei, George Victor; Andrieux, Marie-Laure; Anduaga, Xabier; Angerami, Aaron; Anghinolfi, Francis; Anjos, Nuno; Annovi, Alberto; Antonaki, Ariadni; Antonelli, Mario; Antonov, Alexey; Antos, Jaroslav; Anulli, Fabio; Aoun, Sahar; Aperio Bella, Ludovica; Apolle, Rudi; Arabidze, Giorgi; Aracena, Ignacio; Arai, Yasuo; Arce, Ayana; Archambault, John-Paul; Arfaoui, Samir; Arguin, Jean-Francois; Arik, Engin; Arik, Metin; Armbruster, Aaron James; Arnaez, Olivier; Arnault, Christian; Artamonov, Andrei; Artoni, Giacomo; Arutinov, David; Asai, Shoji; Asfandiyarov, Ruslan; Ask, Stefan; Asman, Barbro; Asquith, Lily; Assamagan, Ketevi; Astbury, Alan; Astvatsatourov, Anatoli; Atoian, Grigor; Aubert, Bernard; Auerbach, Benjamin; Auge, Etienne; Augsten, Kamil; Aurousseau, Mathieu; Austin, Nicholas; Avolio, Giuseppe; Avramidou, Rachel Maria; Axen, David; Ay, Cano; Azuelos, Georges; Azuma, Yuya; Baak, Max; Baccaglioni, Giuseppe; Bacci, Cesare; Bach, Andre; Bachacou, Henri; Bachas, Konstantinos; Bachy, Gerard; Backes, Moritz; Backhaus, Malte; Badescu, Elisabeta; Bagnaia, Paolo; Bahinipati, Seema; Bai, Yu; Bailey, David; Bain, Travis; Baines, John; Baker, Oliver Keith; Baker, Mark; Baker, Sarah; Banas, Elzbieta; Banerjee, Piyali; Banerjee, Swagato; Banfi, Danilo; Bangert, Andrea Michelle; Bansal, Vikas; Bansil, Hardeep Singh; Barak, Liron; Baranov, Sergei; Barashkou, Andrei; Galtieri, Angela Barbaro; Barber, Tom; Barberio, Elisabetta Luigia; Barberis, Dario; Barbero, Marlon; Bardin, Dmitri; Barillari, Teresa; Barisonzi, Marcello; Barklow, Timothy; Barlow, Nick; Barnett, Bruce; Barnett, Michael; Baroncelli, Antonio; Barone, Gaetano; Barr, Alan; Barreiro, Fernando; Barreiro Guimaraes da Costa, Joao; Barrillon, Pierre; Bartoldus, Rainer; Barton, Adam Edward; Bartsch, Detlef; Bartsch, Valeria; Bates, Richard; Batkova, Lucia; Batley, Richard; Battaglia, Andreas; Battistin, Michele; Battistoni, Giuseppe; Bauer, Florian; Bawa, Harinder Singh; Beare, Brian; Beau, Tristan; Beauchemin, Pierre-Hugues; Beccherle, Roberto; Bechtle, Philip; Beck, Hans Peter; Beckingham, Matthew; Becks, Karl-Heinz; Beddall, Andrew; Beddall, Ayda; Bedikian, Sourpouhi; Bednyakov, Vadim; Bee, Christopher; Begel, Michael; Behar Harpaz, Silvia; Behera, Prafulla; Beimforde, Michael; Belanger-Champagne, Camille; Bell, Paul; Bell, William; Bella, Gideon; Bellagamba, Lorenzo; Bellina, Francesco; Bellomo, Massimiliano; Belloni, Alberto; Beloborodova, Olga; Belotskiy, Konstantin; Beltramello, Olga; Ben Ami, Sagi; Benary, Odette; Benchekroun, Driss; Benchouk, Chafik; Bendel, Markus; Benekos, Nektarios; Benhammou, Yan; Benjamin, Douglas; Benoit, Mathieu; Bensinger, James; Benslama, Kamal; Bentvelsen, Stan; Berge, David; Bergeaas Kuutmann, Elin; Berger, Nicolas; Berghaus, Frank; Berglund, Elina; Beringer, Jurg; Bernardet, Karim; Bernat, Pauline; Bernhard, Ralf; Bernius, Catrin; Berry, Tracey; Bertin, Antonio; Bertinelli, Francesco; Bertolucci, Federico; Besana, Maria Ilaria; Besson, Nathalie; Bethke, Siegfried; Bhimji, Wahid; Bianchi, Riccardo-Maria; Bianco, Michele; Biebel, Otmar; Bieniek, Stephen Paul; Bierwagen, Katharina; Biesiada, Jed; Biglietti, Michela; Bilokon, Halina; Bindi, Marcello; Binet, Sebastien; Bingul, Ahmet; Bini, Cesare; Biscarat, Catherine; Bitenc, Urban; Black, Kevin; Blair, Robert; Blanchard, Jean-Baptiste; Blanchot, Georges; Blazek, Tomas; Blocker, Craig; Blocki, Jacek; Blondel, Alain; Blum, Walter; Blumenschein, Ulrike; Bobbink, Gerjan; Bobrovnikov, Victor; Bocchetta, Simona Serena; Bocci, Andrea; Boddy, Christopher Richard; Boehler, Michael; Boek, Jennifer; Boelaert, Nele; Boser, Sebastian; Bogaerts, Joannes Andreas; Bogdanchikov, Alexander; Bogouch, Andrei; Bohm, Christian; Boisvert, Veronique; Bold, Tomasz; Boldea, Venera; Bolnet, Nayanka Myriam; Bona, Marcella; Bondarenko, Valery; Boonekamp, Maarten; Boorman, Gary; Booth, Chris; Bordoni, Stefania; Borer, Claudia; Borisov, Anatoly; Borissov, Guennadi; Borjanovic, Iris; Borroni, Sara; Bos, Kors; Boscherini, Davide; Bosman, Martine; Boterenbrood, Hendrik; Botterill, David; Bouchami, Jihene; Boudreau, Joseph; Bouhova-Thacker, Evelina Vassileva; Bourdarios, Claire; Bousson, Nicolas; Boveia, Antonio; Boyd, James; Boyko, Igor; Bozhko, Nikolay; Bozovic-Jelisavcic, Ivanka; Bracinik, Juraj; Braem, Andre; Branchini, Paolo; Brandenburg, George; Brandt, Andrew; Brandt, Gerhard; Brandt, Oleg; Bratzler, Uwe; Brau, Benjamin; Brau, James; Braun, Helmut; Brelier, Bertrand; Bremer, Johan; Brenner, Richard; Bressler, Shikma; Breton, Dominique; Britton, Dave; Brochu, Frederic; Brock, Ian; Brock, Raymond; Brodbeck, Timothy; Brodet, Eyal; Broggi, Francesco; Bromberg, Carl; Brooijmans, Gustaaf; Brooks, William; Brown, Gareth; Brown, Heather; Bruckman de Renstrom, Pawel; Bruncko, Dusan; Bruneliere, Renaud; Brunet, Sylvie; Bruni, Alessia; Bruni, Graziano; Bruschi, Marco; Buanes, Trygve; Bucci, Francesca; Buchanan, James; Buchanan, Norman; Buchholz, Peter; Buckingham, Ryan; Buckley, Andrew; Buda, Stelian Ioan; Budagov, Ioulian; Budick, Burton; Buscher, Volker; Bugge, Lars; Buira-Clark, Daniel; Bulekov, Oleg; Bunse, Moritz; Buran, Torleiv; Burckhart, Helfried; Burdin, Sergey; Burgess, Thomas; Burke, Stephen; Busato, Emmanuel; Bussey, Peter; Buszello, Claus-Peter; Butin, Francois; Butler, Bart; Butler, John; Buttar, Craig; Butterworth, Jonathan; Buttinger, William; Byatt, Tom; Cabrera Urban, Susana; Caforio, Davide; Cakir, Orhan; Calafiura, Paolo; Calderini, Giovanni; Calfayan, Philippe; Calkins, Robert; Caloba, Luiz; Caloi, Rita; Calvet, David; Calvet, Samuel; Camacho Toro, Reina; Camarri, Paolo; Cambiaghi, Mario; Cameron, David; Campana, Simone; Campanelli, Mario; Canale, Vincenzo; Canelli, Florencia; Canepa, Anadi; Cantero, Josu; Capasso, Luciano; Garrido, Maria Del Mar Capeans; Caprini, Irinel; Caprini, Mihai; Capriotti, Daniele; Capua, Marcella; Caputo, Regina; Caramarcu, Costin; Cardarelli, Roberto; Carli, Tancredi; Carlino, Gianpaolo; Carminati, Leonardo; Caron, Bryan; Caron, Sascha; Montoya, German D.Carrillo; Carter, Antony; Carter, Janet; Carvalho, Joao; Casadei, Diego; Casado, Maria Pilar; Cascella, Michele; Caso, Carlo; Castaneda Hernandez, Alfredo Martin; Castaneda-Miranda, Elizabeth; Castillo Gimenez, Victoria; Castro, Nuno Filipe; Cataldi, Gabriella; Cataneo, Fernando; Catinaccio, Andrea; Catmore, James; Cattai, Ariella; Cattani, Giordano; Caughron, Seth; Cauz, Diego; Cavalleri, Pietro; Cavalli, Donatella; Cavalli-Sforza, Matteo; Cavasinni, Vincenzo; Ceradini, Filippo; Santiago Cerqueira, Augusto; Cerri, Alessandro; Cerrito, Lucio; Cerutti, Fabio; Cetin, Serkant Ali; Cevenini, Francesco; Chafaq, Aziz; Chakraborty, Dhiman; Chan, Kevin; Chapleau, Bertrand; Chapman, John Derek; Chapman, John Wehrley; Chareyre, Eve; Charlton, Dave; Chavda, Vikash; Chavez Barajas, Carlos Alberto; Cheatham, Susan; Chekanov, Sergei; Chekulaev, Sergey; Chelkov, Gueorgui; Chelstowska, Magda Anna; Chen, Chunhui; Chen, Hucheng; Chen, Shenjian; Chen, Tingyang; Chen, Xin; Cheng, Shaochen; Cheplakov, Alexander; Chepurnov, Vladimir; Cherkaoui El Moursli, Rajaa; Chernyatin, Valeriy; Cheu, Elliott; Cheung, Sing-Leung; Chevalier, Laurent; Chiefari, Giovanni; Chikovani, Leila; Childers, John Taylor; Chilingarov, Alexandre; Chiodini, Gabriele; Chizhov, Mihail; Choudalakis, Georgios; Chouridou, Sofia; Christidi, Illectra-Athanasia; Christov, Asen; Chromek-Burckhart, Doris; Chu, Ming-Lee; Chudoba, Jiri; Ciapetti, Guido; Ciba, Krzysztof; Ciftci, Abbas Kenan; Ciftci, Rena; Cinca, Diane; Cindro, Vladimir; Ciobotaru, Matei Dan; Ciocca, Claudia; Ciocio, Alessandra; Cirilli, Manuela; Ciubancan, Mihai; Clark, Allan G.; Clark, Philip James; Cleland, Bill; Clemens, Jean-Claude; Clement, Benoit; Clement, Christophe; Clifft, Roger; Coadou, Yann; Cobal, Marina; Coccaro, Andrea; Cochran, James H.; Coe, Paul; Cogan, Joshua Godfrey; Coggeshall, James; Cogneras, Eric; Cojocaru, Claudiu; Colas, Jacques; Colijn, Auke-Pieter; Collard, Caroline; Collins, Neil; Collins-Tooth, Christopher; Collot, Johann; Colon, German; Conde Muino, Patricia; Coniavitis, Elias; Conidi, Maria Chiara; Consonni, Michele; Consorti, Valerio; Constantinescu, Serban; Conta, Claudio; Conventi, Francesco; Cook, James; Cooke, Mark; Cooper, Ben; Cooper-Sarkar, Amanda; Cooper-Smith, Neil; Copic, Katherine; Cornelissen, Thijs; Corradi, Massimo; Corriveau, Francois; Cortes-Gonzalez, Arely; Cortiana, Giorgio; Costa, Giuseppe; Costa, Maria Jose; Costanzo, Davide; Costin, Tudor; Cote, David; Coura Torres, Rodrigo; Courneyea, Lorraine; Cowan, Glen; Cowden, Christopher; Cox, Brian; Cranmer, Kyle; Crescioli, Francesco; Cristinziani, Markus; Crosetti, Giovanni; Crupi, Roberto; Crepe-Renaudin, Sabine; Cuciuc, Constantin-Mihai; Cuenca Almenar, Cristobal; Donszelmann, Tulay Cuhadar; Curatolo, Maria; Curtis, Chris; Cwetanski, Peter; Czirr, Hendrik; Czyczula, Zofia; D'Auria, Saverio; D'Onofrio, Monica; D'Orazio, Alessia; Da Silva, Paulo Vitor; Da Via, Cinzia; Dabrowski, Wladyslaw; Dai, Tiesheng; Dallapiccola, Carlo; Dam, Mogens; Dameri, Mauro; Damiani, Daniel; Danielsson, Hans Olof; Dannheim, Dominik; Dao, Valerio; Darbo, Giovanni; Darlea, Georgiana Lavinia; Daum, Cornelis; Dauvergne, Jean-Pierre; Davey, Will; Davidek, Tomas; Davidson, Nadia; Davidson, Ruth; Davies, Eleanor; Davies, Merlin; Davison, Adam; Davygora, Yuriy; Dawe, Edmund; Dawson, Ian; Dawson, John; Daya, Rozmin; De, Kaushik; De Asmundis, Riccardo; De Castro, Stefano; De Castro Faria Salgado, Pedro; De Cecco, Sandro; de Graat, Julien; De Groot, Nicolo; de Jong, Paul; de la Taille, Christophe; de la Torre, Hector; De Lotto, Barbara; De Mora, Lee; De Nooij, Lucie; De Oliveira Branco, Miguel; De Pedis, Daniele; De Salvo, Alessandro; De Sanctis, Umberto; De Santo, Antonella; de Vivie De Regie, Jean-Baptiste; Dean, Simon; Dedovich, Dmitri; Degenhardt, James; Dehchar, Mohamed; del Papa, Carlo; del Peso, Jose; del Prete, Tarcisio; Deliyergiyev, Maksym; Dell'Acqua, Andrea; Dell'Asta, Lidia; Della Pietra, Massimo; della Volpe, Domenico; Delmastro, Marco; Delpierre, Pierre; Delruelle, Nicolas; Delsart, Pierre-Antoine; Deluca, Carolina; Demers, Sarah; Demichev, Mikhail; Demirkoz, Bilge; Deng, Jianrong; Denisov, Sergey; Derendarz, Dominik; Derkaoui, Jamal Eddine; Derue, Frederic; Dervan, Paul; Desch, Klaus Kurt; Devetak, Erik; Deviveiros, Pier-Olivier; Dewhurst, Alastair; DeWilde, Burton; Dhaliwal, Saminder; Dhullipudi, Ramasudhakar; Di Ciaccio, Anna; Di Ciaccio, Lucia; Di Girolamo, Alessandro; Di Girolamo, Beniamino; Di Luise, Silvestro; Di Mattia, Alessandro; Di Micco, Biagio; Di Nardo, Roberto; Di Simone, Andrea; Di Sipio, Riccardo; Diaz, Marco Aurelio; Diblen, Faruk; Diehl, Edward; Dietrich, Janet; Dietzsch, Thorsten; Diglio, Sara; Yagci, Kamile Dindar; Dingfelder, Jochen; Dionisi, Carlo; Dita, Petre; Dita, Sanda; Dittus, Fridolin; Djama, Fares; Djobava, Tamar; Barros do Vale, Maria Aline; Do Valle Wemans, Andre; Doan, Thi Kieu Oanh; Dobbs, Matt; Dobinson, Robert; Dobos, Daniel; Dobson, Ellie; Dobson, Marc; Dodd, Jeremy; Doglioni, Caterina; Doherty, Tom; Doi, Yoshikuni; Dolejsi, Jiri; Dolenc, Irena; Dolezal, Zdenek; Dolgoshein, Boris; Dohmae, Takeshi; Donadelli, Marisilvia; Donega, Mauro; Donini, Julien; Dopke, Jens; Doria, Alessandra; dos Anjos, Andre; Dosil, Mireia; Dotti, Andrea; Dova, Maria-Teresa; Dowell, John; Doxiadis, Alexander; Doyle, Tony; Drasal, Zbynek; Drees, Jurgen; Dressnandt, Nandor; Drevermann, Hans; Driouichi, Chafik; Dris, Manolis; Dubbert, Jorg; Dubbs, Tim; Dube, Sourabh; Duchovni, Ehud; Duckeck, Guenter; Dudarev, Alexey; Dudziak, Fanny; Duhrssen, Michael; Duerdoth, Ian; Duflot, Laurent; Dufour, Marc-Andre; Dunford, Monica; Duran Yildiz, Hatice; Duxfield, Robert; Dwuznik, Michal; Dydak, Friedrich; Dzahini, Daniel; Duren, Michael; Ebenstein, William; Ebke, Johannes; Eckert, Simon; Eckweiler, Sebastian; Edmonds, Keith; Edwards, Clive; Edwards, Nicholas Charles; Ehrenfeld, Wolfgang; Ehrich, Thies; Eifert, Till; Eigen, Gerald; Einsweiler, Kevin; Eisenhandler, Eric; Ekelof, Tord; El Kacimi, Mohamed; Ellert, Mattias; Elles, Sabine; Ellinghaus, Frank; Ellis, Katherine; Ellis, Nicolas; Elmsheuser, Johannes; Elsing, Markus; Emeliyanov, Dmitry; Engelmann, Roderich; Engl, Albert; Epp, Brigitte; Eppig, Andrew; Erdmann, Johannes; Ereditato, Antonio; Eriksson, Daniel; Ernst, Jesse; Ernst, Michael; Ernwein, Jean; Errede, Deborah; Errede, Steven; Ertel, Eugen; Escalier, Marc; Escobar, Carlos; Espinal Curull, Xavier; Esposito, Bellisario; Etienne, Francois; Etienvre, Anne-Isabelle; Etzion, Erez; Evangelakou, Despoina; Evans, Hal; Fabbri, Laura; Fabre, Caroline; Fakhrutdinov, Rinat; Falciano, Speranza; Fang, Yaquan; Fanti, Marcello; Farbin, Amir; Farilla, Addolorata; Farley, Jason; Farooque, Trisha; Farrington, Sinead; Farthouat, Philippe; Fassnacht, Patrick; Fassouliotis, Dimitrios; Fatholahzadeh, Baharak; Favareto, Andrea; Fayard, Louis; Fazio, Salvatore; Febbraro, Renato; Federic, Pavol; Fedin, Oleg; Fedorko, Woiciech; Fehling-Kaschek, Mirjam; Feligioni, Lorenzo; Fellmann, Denis; Felzmann, Ulrich; Feng, Cunfeng; Feng, Eric; Fenyuk, Alexander; Ferencei, Jozef; Ferland, Jonathan; Fernando, Waruna; Ferrag, Samir; Ferrando, James; Ferrara, Valentina; Ferrari, Arnaud; Ferrari, Pamela; Ferrari, Roberto; Ferrer, Antonio; Ferrer, Maria Lorenza; Ferrere, Didier; Ferretti, Claudio; Ferretto Parodi, Andrea; Fiascaris, Maria; Fiedler, Frank; Filipcic, Andrej; Filippas, Anastasios; Filthaut, Frank; Fincke-Keeler, Margret; Fiolhais, Miguel; Fiorini, Luca; Firan, Ana; Fischer, Gordon; Fischer, Peter; Fisher, Matthew; Fisher, Steve; Flechl, Martin; Fleck, Ivor; Fleckner, Johanna; Fleischmann, Philipp; Fleischmann, Sebastian; Flick, Tobias; Flores Castillo, Luis; Flowerdew, Michael; Fokitis, Manolis; Fonseca Martin, Teresa; Forbush, David Alan; Formica, Andrea; Forti, Alessandra; Fortin, Dominique; Foster, Joe; Fournier, Daniel; Foussat, Arnaud; Fowler, Andrew; Fowler, Ken; Fox, Harald; Francavilla, Paolo; Franchino, Silvia; Francis, David; Frank, Tal; Franklin, Melissa; Franz, Sebastien; Fraternali, Marco; Fratina, Sasa; French, Sky; Friedrich, Felix; Froeschl, Robert; Froidevaux, Daniel; Frost, James; Fukunaga, Chikara; Fullana Torregrosa, Esteban; Fuster, Juan; Gabaldon, Carolina; Gabizon, Ofir; Gadfort, Thomas; Gadomski, Szymon; Gagliardi, Guido; Gagnon, Pauline; Galea, Cristina; Gallas, Elizabeth; Gallas, Manuel; Gallo, Valentina Santina; Gallop, Bruce; Gallus, Petr; Galyaev, Eugene; Gan, K.K.; Gao, Yongsheng; Gapienko, Vladimir; Gaponenko, Andrei; Garberson, Ford; Garcia-Sciveres, Maurice; Garcia, Carmen; Garcia Navarro, Jose Enrique; Gardner, Robert; Garelli, Nicoletta; Garitaonandia, Hegoi; Garonne, Vincent; Garvey, John; Gatti, Claudio; Gaudio, Gabriella; Gaumer, Olivier; Gaur, Bakul; Gauthier, Lea; Gavrilenko, Igor; Gay, Colin; Gaycken, Goetz; Gayde, Jean-Christophe; Gazis, Evangelos; Ge, Peng; Gee, Norman; Geerts, Dani\\|{e}l Alphonsus Adrianus; Geich-Gimbel, Christoph; Gellerstedt, Karl; Gemme, Claudia; Gemmell, Alistair; Genest, Marie-Helene; Gentile, Simonetta; George, Matthias; George, Simon; Gerlach, Peter; Gershon, Avi; Geweniger, Christoph; Ghazlane, Hamid; Ghez, Philippe; Ghodbane, Nabil; Giacobbe, Benedetto; Giagu, Stefano; Giakoumopoulou, Victoria; Giangiobbe, Vincent; Gianotti, Fabiola; Gibbard, Bruce; Gibson, Adam; Gibson, Stephen; Gilbert, Laura; Gilchriese, Murdock; Gilewsky, Valentin; Gillberg, Dag; Gillman, Tony; Gingrich, Douglas; Ginzburg, Jonatan; Giokaris, Nikos; Giordano, Raffaele; Giorgi, Francesco Michelangelo; Giovannini, Paola; Giraud, Pierre-Francois; Giugni, Danilo; Giunta, Michele; Giusti, Paolo; Gjelsten, Borge Kile; Gladilin, Leonid; Glasman, Claudia; Glatzer, Julian; Glazov, Alexandre; Glitza, Karl-Walter; Glonti, George; Godfrey, Jennifer; Godlewski, Jan; Goebel, Martin; Gopfert, Thomas; Goeringer, Christian; Gossling, Claus; Gottfert, Tobias; Goldfarb, Steven; Goldin, Daniel; Golling, Tobias; Golovnia, Serguei; Gomes, Agostinho; Gomez Fajardo, Luz Stella; Goncalo, Ricardo; Goncalves Pinto Firmino Da Costa, Joao; Gonella, Laura; Gonidec, Allain; Gonzalez, Saul; Gonzalez de la Hoz, Santiago; Gonzalez Silva, Laura; Gonzalez-Sevilla, Sergio; Goodson, Jeremiah Jet; Goossens, Luc; Gorbounov, Petr Andreevich; Gordon, Howard; Gorelov, Igor; Gorfine, Grant; Gorini, Benedetto; Gorini, Edoardo; Gorisek, Andrej; Gornicki, Edward; Gorokhov, Serguei; Goryachev, Vladimir; Gosdzik, Bjoern; Gosselink, Martijn; Gostkin, Mikhail Ivanovitch; Gough Eschrich, Ivo; Gouighri, Mohamed; Goujdami, Driss; Goulette, Marc Phillippe; Goussiou, Anna; Goy, Corinne; Grabowska-Bold, Iwona; Grabski, Varlen; Grafstrom, Per; Grah, Christian; Grahn, Karl-Johan; Grancagnolo, Francesco; Grancagnolo, Sergio; Grassi, Valerio; Gratchev, Vadim; Grau, Nathan; Gray, Heather; Gray, Julia Ann; Graziani, Enrico; Grebenyuk, Oleg; Greenfield, Debbie; Greenshaw, Timothy; Greenwood, Zeno Dixon; Gregersen, Kristian; Gregor, Ingrid-Maria; Grenier, Philippe; Griffiths, Justin; Grigalashvili, Nugzar; Grillo, Alexander; Grinstein, Sebastian; Grishkevich, Yaroslav; Grivaz, Jean-Francois; Grognuz, Joel; Groh, Manfred; Gross, Eilam; Grosse-Knetter, Joern; Groth-Jensen, Jacob; Grybel, Kai; Guarino, Victor; Guest, Daniel; Guicheney, Christophe; Guida, Angelo; Guillemin, Thibault; Guindon, Stefan; Guler, Hulya; Gunther, Jaroslav; Guo, Bin; Guo, Jun; Gupta, Ambreesh; Gusakov, Yury; Gushchin, Vladimir; Gutierrez, Andrea; Gutierrez, Phillip; Guttman, Nir; Gutzwiller, Olivier; Guyot, Claude; Gwenlan, Claire; Gwilliam, Carl; Haas, Andy; Haas, Stefan; Haber, Carl; Hackenburg, Robert; Hadavand, Haleh Khani; Hadley, David; Haefner, Petra; Hahn, Ferdinand; Haider, Stefan; Hajduk, Zbigniew; Hakobyan, Hrachya; Haller, Johannes; Hamacher, Klaus; Hamal, Petr; Hamilton, Andrew; Hamilton, Samuel; Han, Hongguang; Han, Liang; Hanagaki, Kazunori; Hance, Michael; Handel, Carsten; Hanke, Paul; Hansen, John Renner; Hansen, Jorgen Beck; Hansen, Jorn Dines; Hansen, Peter Henrik; Hansson, Per; Hara, Kazuhiko; Hare, Gabriel; Harenberg, Torsten; Harkusha, Siarhei; Harper, Devin; Harrington, Robert; Harris, Orin; Harrison, Karl; Hartert, Jochen; Hartjes, Fred; Haruyama, Tomiyoshi; Harvey, Alex; Hasegawa, Satoshi; Hasegawa, Yoji; Hassani, Samira; Hatch, Mark; Hauff, Dieter; Haug, Sigve; Hauschild, Michael; Hauser, Reiner; Havranek, Miroslav; Hawes, Brian; Hawkes, Christopher; Hawkings, Richard John; Hawkins, Donovan; Hayakawa, Takashi; Hayden, Daniel; Hayward, Helen; Haywood, Stephen; Hazen, Eric; He, Mao; Head, Simon; Hedberg, Vincent; Heelan, Louise; Heim, Sarah; Heinemann, Beate; Heisterkamp, Simon; Helary, Louis; Heller, Mathieu; Hellman, Sten; Hellmich, Dennis; Helsens, Clement; Henderson, Robert; Henke, Michael; Henrichs, Anna; Henriques Correia, Ana Maria; Henrot-Versille, Sophie; Henry-Couannier, Frederic; Hensel, Carsten; Henss, Tobias; Medina Hernandez, Carlos; Hernandez Jimenez, Yesenia; Herrberg, Ruth; Hershenhorn, Alon David; Herten, Gregor; Hertenberger, Ralf; Hervas, Luis; Hessey, Nigel; Hidvegi, Attila; Higon-Rodriguez, Emilio; Hill, Daniel; Hill, John; Hill, Norman; Hiller, Karl Heinz; Hillert, Sonja; Hillier, Stephen; Hinchliffe, Ian; Hines, Elizabeth; Hirose, Minoru; Hirsch, Florian; Hirschbuehl, Dominic; Hobbs, John; Hod, Noam; Hodgkinson, Mark; Hodgson, Paul; Hoecker, Andreas; Hoeferkamp, Martin; Hoffman, Julia; Hoffmann, Dirk; Hohlfeld, Marc; Holder, Martin; Holmgren, Sven-Olof; Holy, Tomas; Holzbauer, Jenny; Homma, Yasuhiro; Hong, Tae Min; Hooft van Huysduynen, Loek; Horazdovsky, Tomas; Horn, Claus; Horner, Stephan; Horton, Katherine; Hostachy, Jean-Yves; Hou, Suen; Houlden, Michael; Hoummada, Abdeslam; Howarth, James; Howell, David; Hristova, Ivana; Hrivnac, Julius; Hruska, Ivan; Hryn'ova, Tetiana; Hsu, Pai-hsien Jennifer; Hsu, Shih-Chieh; Huang, Guang Shun; Hubacek, Zdenek; Hubaut, Fabrice; Huegging, Fabian; Huffman, Todd Brian; Hughes, Emlyn; Hughes, Gareth; Hughes-Jones, Richard; Huhtinen, Mika; Hurst, Peter; Hurwitz, Martina; Husemann, Ulrich; Huseynov, Nazim; Huston, Joey; Huth, John; Iacobucci, Giuseppe; Iakovidis, Georgios; Ibbotson, Michael; Ibragimov, Iskander; Ichimiya, Ryo; Iconomidou-Fayard, Lydia; Idarraga, John; Idzik, Marek; Iengo, Paolo; Igonkina, Olga; Ikegami, Yoichi; Ikeno, Masahiro; Ilchenko, Yuri; Iliadis, Dimitrios; Ilic, Nikolina; Imbault, Didier; Imhaeuser, Martin; Imori, Masatoshi; Ince, Tayfun; Inigo-Golfin, Joaquin; Ioannou, Pavlos; Iodice, Mauro; Ionescu, Gelu; Irles Quiles, Adrian; Ishii, Koji; Ishikawa, Akimasa; Ishino, Masaya; Ishmukhametov, Renat; Issever, Cigdem; Istin, Serhat; Ivashin, Anton; Iwanski, Wieslaw; Iwasaki, Hiroyuki; Izen, Joseph; Izzo, Vincenzo; Jackson, Brett; Jackson, John; Jackson, Paul; Jaekel, Martin; Jain, Vivek; Jakobs, Karl; Jakobsen, Sune; Jakubek, Jan; Jana, Dilip; Jankowski, Ernest; Jansen, Eric; Jantsch, Andreas; Janus, Michel; Jarlskog, Goran; Jeanty, Laura; Jelen, Kazimierz; Jen-La Plante, Imai; Jenni, Peter; Jeremie, Andrea; Jez, Pavel; Jezequel, Stephane; Jha, Manoj Kumar; Ji, Haoshuang; Ji, Weina; Jia, Jiangyong; Jiang, Yi; Jimenez Belenguer, Marcos; Jin, Ge; Jin, Shan; Jinnouchi, Osamu; Joergensen, Morten Dam; Joffe, David; Johansen, Lars; Johansen, Marianne; Johansson, Erik; Johansson, Per; Johnert, Sebastian; Johns, Kenneth; Jon-And, Kerstin; Jones, Graham; Jones, Roger; Jones, Tegid; Jones, Tim; Jonsson, Ove; Joram, Christian; Jorge, Pedro; Joseph, John; Jovin, Tatjana; Ju, Xiangyang; Juranek, Vojtech; Jussel, Patrick; Juste Rozas, Aurelio; Kabachenko, Vasily; Kabana, Sonja; Kaci, Mohammed; Kaczmarska, Anna; Kadlecik, Peter; Kado, Marumi; Kagan, Harris; Kagan, Michael; Kaiser, Steffen; Kajomovitz, Enrique; Kalinin, Sergey; Kalinovskaya, Lidia; Kama, Sami; Kanaya, Naoko; Kaneda, Michiru; Kanno, Takayuki; Kantserov, Vadim; Kanzaki, Junichi; Kaplan, Benjamin; Kapliy, Anton; Kaplon, Jan; Kar, Deepak; Karagoz, Muge; Karnevskiy, Mikhail; Karr, Kristo; Kartvelishvili, Vakhtang; Karyukhin, Andrey; Kashif, Lashkar; Kasmi, Azzedine; Kass, Richard; Kastanas, Alex; Kataoka, Mayuko; Kataoka, Yousuke; Katsoufis, Elias; Katzy, Judith; Kaushik, Venkatesh; Kawagoe, Kiyotomo; Kawamoto, Tatsuo; Kawamura, Gen; Kayl, Manuel; Kazanin, Vassili; Kazarinov, Makhail; Keates, James Robert; Keeler, Richard; Kehoe, Robert; Keil, Markus; Kekelidze, George; Kelly, Marc; Kennedy, John; Kenney, Christopher John; Kenyon, Mike; Kepka, Oldrich; Kerschen, Nicolas; Kersevan, Borut Paul; Kersten, Susanne; Kessoku, Kohei; Ketterer, Christian; Keung, Justin; Khakzad, Mohsen; Khalil-zada, Farkhad; Khandanyan, Hovhannes; Khanov, Alexander; Kharchenko, Dmitri; Khodinov, Alexander; Kholodenko, Anatoli; Khomich, Andrei; Khoo, Teng Jian; Khoriauli, Gia; Khoroshilov, Andrey; Khovanskiy, Nikolai; Khovanskiy, Valery; Khramov, Evgeniy; Khubua, Jemal; Kim, Hyeon Jin; Kim, Min Suk; Kim, Peter; Kim, Shinhong; Kimura, Naoki; Kind, Oliver; King, Barry; King, Matthew; King, Robert Steven Beaufoy; Kirk, Julie; Kirsch, Guillaume; Kirsch, Lawrence; Kiryunin, Andrey; Kishimoto, Tomoe; Kisielewska, Danuta; Kittelmann, Thomas; Kiver, Andrey; Kiyamura, Hironori; Kladiva, Eduard; Klaiber-Lodewigs, Jonas; Klein, Max; Klein, Uta; Kleinknecht, Konrad; Klemetti, Miika; Klier, Amit; Klimentov, Alexei; Klingenberg, Reiner; Klinkby, Esben; Klioutchnikova, Tatiana; Klok, Peter; Klous, Sander; Kluge, Eike-Erik; Kluge, Thomas; Kluit, Peter; Kluth, Stefan; Knecht, Neil; Kneringer, Emmerich; Knobloch, Juergen; Knoops, Edith; Knue, Andrea; Ko, Byeong Rok; Kobayashi, Tomio; Kobel, Michael; Kocian, Martin; Kocnar, Antonin; Kodys, Peter; Koneke, Karsten; Konig, Adriaan; Koenig, Sebastian; Kopke, Lutz; Koetsveld, Folkert; Koevesarki, Peter; Koffas, Thomas; Koffeman, Els; Kohn, Fabian; Kohout, Zdenek; Kohriki, Takashi; Koi, Tatsumi; Kokott, Thomas; Kolachev, Guennady; Kolanoski, Hermann; Kolesnikov, Vladimir; Koletsou, Iro; Koll, James; Kollar, Daniel; Kollefrath, Michael; Kolya, Scott; Komar, Aston; Komaragiri, Jyothsna Rani; Komori, Yuto; Kondo, Takahiko; Kono, Takanori; Kononov, Anatoly; Konoplich, Rostislav; Konstantinidis, Nikolaos; Kootz, Andreas; Koperny, Stefan; Kopikov, Sergey; Korcyl, Krzysztof; Kordas, Kostantinos; Koreshev, Victor; Korn, Andreas; Korol, Aleksandr; Korolkov, Ilya; Korolkova, Elena; Korotkov, Vladislav; Kortner, Oliver; Kortner, Sandra; Kostyukhin, Vadim; Kotamaki, Miikka Juhani; Kotov, Sergey; Kotov, Vladislav; Kotwal, Ashutosh; Kourkoumelis, Christine; Kouskoura, Vasiliki; Koutsman, Alex; Kowalewski, Robert Victor; Kowalski, Tadeusz; Kozanecki, Witold; Kozhin, Anatoly; Kral, Vlastimil; Kramarenko, Viktor; Kramberger, Gregor; Krasny, Mieczyslaw Witold; Krasznahorkay, Attila; Kraus, James; Kreisel, Arik; Krejci, Frantisek; Kretzschmar, Jan; Krieger, Nina; Krieger, Peter; Kroeninger, Kevin; Kroha, Hubert; Kroll, Joe; Kroseberg, Juergen; Krstic, Jelena; Kruchonak, Uladzimir; Kruger, Hans; Kruker, Tobias; Krumshteyn, Zinovii; Kruth, Andre; Kubota, Takashi; Kuehn, Susanne; Kugel, Andreas; Kuhl, Thorsten; Kuhn, Dietmar; Kukhtin, Victor; Kulchitsky, Yuri; Kuleshov, Sergey; Kummer, Christian; Kuna, Marine; Kundu, Nikhil; Kunkle, Joshua; Kupco, Alexander; Kurashige, Hisaya; Kurata, Masakazu; Kurochkin, Yurii; Kus, Vlastimil; Kuykendall, William; Kuze, Masahiro; Kuzhir, Polina; Kvita, Jiri; Kwee, Regina; La Rosa, Alessandro; La Rotonda, Laura; Labarga, Luis; Labbe, Julien; Lablak, Said; Lacasta, Carlos; Lacava, Francesco; Lacker, Heiko; Lacour, Didier; Lacuesta, Vicente Ramon; Ladygin, Evgueni; Lafaye, Remi; Laforge, Bertrand; Lagouri, Theodota; Lai, Stanley; Laisne, Emmanuel; Lamanna, Massimo; Lampen, Caleb; Lampl, Walter; Lancon, Eric; Landgraf, Ulrich; Landon, Murrough; Landsman, Hagar; Lane, Jenna; Lange, Clemens; Lankford, Andrew; Lanni, Francesco; Lantzsch, Kerstin; Laplace, Sandrine; Lapoire, Cecile; Laporte, Jean-Francois; Lari, Tommaso; Larionov, Anatoly; Larner, Aimee; Lasseur, Christian; Lassnig, Mario; Laurelli, Paolo; Lavorato, Antonia; Lavrijsen, Wim; Laycock, Paul; Lazarev, Alexandre; Le Dortz, Olivier; Le Guirriec, Emmanuel; Le Maner, Christophe; Le Menedeu, Eve; Lebel, Celine; LeCompte, Thomas; Ledroit-Guillon, Fabienne Agnes Marie; Lee, Hurng-Chun; Lee, Jason; Lee, Shih-Chang; Lee, Lawrence; Lefebvre, Michel; Legendre, Marie; Leger, Annie; LeGeyt, Benjamin; Legger, Federica; Leggett, Charles; Lehmacher, Marc; Lehmann Miotto, Giovanna; Lei, Xiaowen; Leite, Marco Aurelio Lisboa; Leitner, Rupert; Lellouch, Daniel; Leltchouk, Mikhail; Lemmer, Boris; Lendermann, Victor; Leney, Katharine; Lenz, Tatiana; Lenzen, Georg; Lenzi, Bruno; Leonhardt, Kathrin; Leontsinis, Stefanos; Leroy, Claude; Lessard, Jean-Raphael; Lesser, Jonas; Lester, Christopher; Leung Fook Cheong, Annabelle; Leveque, Jessica; Levin, Daniel; Levinson, Lorne; Levitski, Mikhail; Lewandowska, Marta; Lewis, Adrian; Lewis, George; Leyko, Agnieszka; Leyton, Michael; Li, Bo; Li, Haifeng; Li, Shu; Li, Xuefei; Liang, Zhihua; Liang, Zhijun; Liberti, Barbara; Lichard, Peter; Lichtnecker, Markus; Lie, Ki; Liebig, Wolfgang; Lifshitz, Ronen; Lilley, Joseph; Limbach, Christian; Limosani, Antonio; Limper, Maaike; Lin, Simon; Linde, Frank; Linnemann, James; Lipeles, Elliot; Lipinsky, Lukas; Lipniacka, Anna; Liss, Tony; Lissauer, David; Lister, Alison; Litke, Alan; Liu, Chuanlei; Liu, Dong; Liu, Hao; Liu, Jianbei; Liu, Minghui; Liu, Shengli; Liu, Yanwen; Livan, Michele; Livermore, Sarah; Lleres, Annick; Llorente Merino, Javier; Lloyd, Stephen; Lobodzinska, Ewelina; Loch, Peter; Lockman, William; Lockwitz, Sarah; Loddenkoetter, Thomas; Loebinger, Fred; Loginov, Andrey; Loh, Chang Wei; Lohse, Thomas; Lohwasser, Kristin; Lokajicek, Milos; Loken, James; Lombardo, Vincenzo Paolo; Long, Robin Eamonn; Lopes, Lourenco; Lopez Mateos, David; Losada, Marta; Loscutoff, Peter; Sterzo, Francesco Lo; Losty, Michael; Lou, Xinchou; Lounis, Abdenour; Loureiro, Karina; Love, Jeremy; Love, Peter; Lowe, Andrew; Lu, Feng; Lubatti, Henry; Luci, Claudio; Lucotte, Arnaud; Ludwig, Andreas; Ludwig, Dorthe; Ludwig, Inga; Ludwig, Jens; Luehring, Frederick; Luijckx, Guy; Lumb, Debra; Luminari, Lamberto; Lund, Esben; Lund-Jensen, Bengt; Lundberg, Bjorn; Lundberg, Johan; Lundquist, Johan; Lungwitz, Matthias; Lupi, Anna; Lutz, Gerhard; Lynn, David; Lys, Jeremy; Lytken, Else; Ma, Hong; Ma, Lian Liang; Macana Goia, Jorge Andres; Maccarrone, Giovanni; Macchiolo, Anna; Macek, Bostjan; Machado Miguens, Joana; Mackeprang, Rasmus; Madaras, Ronald; Mader, Wolfgang; Maenner, Reinhard; Maeno, Tadashi; Mattig, Peter; Mattig, Stefan; Magalhaes Martins, Paulo Jorge; Magnoni, Luca; Magradze, Erekle; Mahalalel, Yair; Mahboubi, Kambiz; Mahout, Gilles; Maiani, Camilla; Maidantchik, Carmen; Maio, Amelia; Majewski, Stephanie; Makida, Yasuhiro; Makovec, Nikola; Mal, Prolay; Malecki, Pawel; Malecki, Piotr; Maleev, Victor; Malek, Fairouz; Mallik, Usha; Malon, David; Maltezos, Stavros; Malyshev, Vladimir; Malyukov, Sergei; Mameghani, Raphael; Mamuzic, Judita; Manabe, Atsushi; Mandelli, Luciano; Mandic, Igor; Mandrysch, Rocco; Maneira, Jose; Mangeard, Pierre-Simon; Manjavidze, Ioseb; Mann, Alexander; Manning, Peter; Manousakis-Katsikakis, Arkadios; Mansoulie, Bruno; Manz, Andreas; Mapelli, Alessandro; Mapelli, Livio; March, Luis; Marchand, Jean-Francois; Marchese, Fabrizio; Marchiori, Giovanni; Marcisovsky, Michal; Marin, Alexandru; Marino, Christopher; Marroquim, Fernando; Marshall, Robin; Marshall, Zach; Martens, Kalen; Marti-Garcia, Salvador; Martin, Andrew; Martin, Brian; Martin, Brian Thomas; Martin, Franck Francois; Martin, Jean-Pierre; Martin, Philippe; Martin, Tim; Martin Dit Latour, Bertrand; Martin--Haugh, Stewart; Martinez, Mario; Martinez Outschoorn, Verena; Martyniuk, Alex; Marx, Marilyn; Marzano, Francesco; Marzin, Antoine; Masetti, Lucia; Mashimo, Tetsuro; Mashinistov, Ruslan; Masik, Jiri; Maslennikov, Alexey; Massa, Ignazio; Massaro, Graziano; Massol, Nicolas; Mastrandrea, Paolo; Mastroberardino, Anna; Masubuchi, Tatsuya; Mathes, Markus; Matricon, Pierre; Matsumoto, Hiroshi; Matsunaga, Hiroyuki; Matsushita, Takashi; Mattravers, Carly; Maugain, Jean-Marie; Maxfield, Stephen; Maximov, Dmitriy; May, Edward; Mayne, Anna; Mazini, Rachid; Mazur, Michael; Mazzanti, Marcello; Mazzoni, Enrico; Mc Kee, Shawn Patrick; McCarn, Allison; McCarthy, Robert; McCarthy, Tom; McCubbin, Norman; McFarlane, Kenneth; Mcfayden, Josh; McGlone, Helen; Mchedlidze, Gvantsa; McLaren, Robert Andrew; Mclaughlan, Tom; McMahon, Steve; McPherson, Robert; Meade, Andrew; Mechnich, Joerg; Mechtel, Markus; Medinnis, Mike; Meera-Lebbai, Razzak; Meguro, Tatsuma; Mehdiyev, Rashid; Mehlhase, Sascha; Mehta, Andrew; Meier, Karlheinz; Meinhardt, Jens; Meirose, Bernhard; Melachrinos, Constantinos; Mellado Garcia, Bruce Rafael; Mendoza Navas, Luis; Meng, Zhaoxia; Mengarelli, Alberto; Menke, Sven; Menot, Claude; Meoni, Evelin; Mercurio, Kevin Michael; Mermod, Philippe; Merola, Leonardo; Meroni, Chiara; Merritt, Frank; Messina, Andrea; Metcalfe, Jessica; Mete, Alaettin Serhan; Meuser, Stefan; Meyer, Carsten; Meyer, Jean-Pierre; Meyer, Jochen; Meyer, Joerg; Meyer, Thomas Christian; Meyer, W.Thomas; Miao, Jiayuan; Michal, Sebastien; Micu, Liliana; Middleton, Robin; Miele, Paola; Migas, Sylwia; Mijovic, Liza; Mikenberg, Giora; Mikestikova, Marcela; Mikuz, Marko; Miller, David; Miller, Robert; Mills, Bill; Mills, Corrinne; Milov, Alexander; Milstead, David; Milstein, Dmitry; Minaenko, Andrey; Minano, Mercedes; Minashvili, Irakli; Mincer, Allen; Mindur, Bartosz; Mineev, Mikhail; Ming, Yao; Mir, Lluisa-Maria; Mirabelli, Giovanni; Miralles Verge, Lluis; Misiejuk, Andrzej; Mitrevski, Jovan; Mitrofanov, Gennady; Mitsou, Vasiliki A.; Mitsui, Shingo; Miyagawa, Paul; Miyazaki, Kazuki; Mjornmark, Jan-Ulf; Moa, Torbjoern; Mockett, Paul; Moed, Shulamit; Moeller, Victoria; Monig, Klaus; Moser, Nicolas; Mohapatra, Soumya; Mohr, Wolfgang; Mohrdieck-Mock, Susanne; Moisseev, Artemy; Moles-Valls, Regina; Molina-Perez, Jorge; Monk, James; Monnier, Emmanuel; Montesano, Simone; Monticelli, Fernando; Monzani, Simone; Moore, Roger; Moorhead, Gareth; Mora Herrera, Clemencia; Moraes, Arthur; Morange, Nicolas; Morel, Julien; Morello, Gianfranco; Moreno, Deywis; Moreno Llácer, María; Morettini, Paolo; Morii, Masahiro; Morin, Jerome; Morita, Youhei; Morley, Anthony Keith; Mornacchi, Giuseppe; Morozov, Sergey; Morris, John; Morvaj, Ljiljana; Moser, Hans-Guenther; Mosidze, Maia; Moss, Josh; Mount, Richard; Mountricha, Eleni; Mouraviev, Sergei; Moyse, Edward; Mudrinic, Mihajlo; Mueller, Felix; Mueller, James; Mueller, Klemens; Muller, Thomas; Muenstermann, Daniel; Muir, Alex; Munwes, Yonathan; Murray, Bill; Mussche, Ido; Musto, Elisa; Myagkov, Alexey; Myska, Miroslav; Nadal, Jordi; Nagai, Koichi; Nagano, Kunihiro; Nagasaka, Yasushi; Nairz, Armin Michael; Nakahama, Yu; Nakamura, Koji; Nakano, Itsuo; Nanava, Gizo; Napier, Austin; Nash, Michael; Nation, Nigel; Nattermann, Till; Naumann, Thomas; Navarro, Gabriela; Neal, Homer; Nebot, Eduardo; Nechaeva, Polina; Negri, Andrea; Negri, Guido; Nektarijevic, Snezana; Nelson, Silke; Nelson, Timothy Knight; Nemecek, Stanislav; Nemethy, Peter; Nepomuceno, Andre Asevedo; Nessi, Marzio; Nesterov, Stanislav; Neubauer, Mark; Neusiedl, Andrea; Neves, Ricardo; Nevski, Pavel; Newman, Paul; Hong, Van Nguyen Thi; Nickerson, Richard; Nicolaidou, Rosy; Nicolas, Ludovic; Nicquevert, Bertrand; Niedercorn, Francois; Nielsen, Jason; Niinikoski, Tapio; Nikiforou, Nikiforos; Nikiforov, Andriy; Nikolaenko, Vladimir; Nikolaev, Kirill; Nikolic-Audit, Irena; Nikolics, Katalin; Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos; Nilsen, Henrik; Nilsson, Paul; Ninomiya, Yoichi; Nisati, Aleandro; Nishiyama, Tomonori; Nisius, Richard; Nodulman, Lawrence; Nomachi, Masaharu; Nomidis, Ioannis; Nordberg, Markus; Nordkvist, Bjoern; Norton, Peter; Novakova, Jana; Nozaki, Mitsuaki; Nozicka, Miroslav; Nozka, Libor; Nugent, Ian Michael; Nuncio-Quiroz, Adriana-Elizabeth; Nunes Hanninger, Guilherme; Nunnemann, Thomas; Nurse, Emily; Nyman, Tommi; O'Brien, Brendan Joseph; O'Neale, Steve; O'Neil, Dugan; O'Shea, Val; Oakham, Gerald; Oberlack, Horst; Ocariz, Jose; Ochi, Atsuhiko; Oda, Susumu; Odaka, Shigeru; Odier, Jerome; Ogren, Harold; Oh, Alexander; Oh, Seog; Ohm, Christian; Ohshima, Takayoshi; Ohshita, Hidetoshi; Ohska, Tokio Kenneth; Ohsugi, Takashi; Okada, Shogo; Okawa, Hideki; Okumura, Yasuyuki; Okuyama, Toyonobu; Olcese, Marco; Olchevski, Alexander; Oliveira, Miguel Alfonso; Oliveira Damazio, Denis; Oliver Garcia, Elena; Olivito, Dominick; Olszewski, Andrzej; Olszowska, Jolanta; Omachi, Chihiro; Onofre, Antonio; Onyisi, Peter; Oram, Christopher; Oreglia, Mark; Oren, Yona; Orestano, Domizia; Orlov, Iliya; Oropeza Barrera, Cristina; Orr, Robert; Osculati, Bianca; Ospanov, Rustem; Osuna, Carlos; Otero y Garzon, Gustavo; Ottersbach, John; Ouchrif, Mohamed; Ould-Saada, Farid; Ouraou, Ahmimed; Ouyang, Qun; Owen, Mark; Owen, Simon; Ozcan, Veysi Erkcan; Ozturk, Nurcan; Pacheco Pages, Andres; Padilla Aranda, Cristobal; Pagan Griso, Simone; Paganis, Efstathios; Paige, Frank; Pajchel, Katarina; Palacino, Gabriel; Paleari, Chiara; Palestini, Sandro; Pallin, Dominique; Palma, Alberto; Palmer, Jody; Pan, Yibin; Panagiotopoulou, Evgenia; Panes, Boris; Panikashvili, Natalia; Panitkin, Sergey; Pantea, Dan; Panuskova, Monika; Paolone, Vittorio; Papadelis, Aras; Papadopoulou, Theodora; Paramonov, Alexander; Park, Woochun; Parker, Andy; Parodi, Fabrizio; Parsons, John; Parzefall, Ulrich; Pasqualucci, Enrico; Passeri, Antonio; Pastore, Fernanda; Pastore, Francesca; Pasztor, Gabriella; Pataraia, Sophio; Patel, Nikhul; Pater, Joleen; Patricelli, Sergio; Pauly, Thilo; Pecsy, Martin; Pedraza Morales, Maria Isabel; Peleganchuk, Sergey; Peng, Haiping; Pengo, Ruggero; Penson, Alexander; Penwell, John; Perantoni, Marcelo; Perez, Kerstin; Cavalcanti, Tiago Perez; Perez Codina, Estel; Perez Garcia-Estan, Maria Teresa; Perez Reale, Valeria; Perini, Laura; Pernegger, Heinz; Perrino, Roberto; Perrodo, Pascal; Persembe, Seda; Peshekhonov, Vladimir; Petersen, Brian; Petersen, Jorgen; Petersen, Troels; Petit, Elisabeth; Petridis, Andreas; Petridou, Chariclia; Petrolo, Emilio; Petrucci, Fabrizio; Petschull, Dennis; Petteni, Michele; Pezoa, Raquel; Phan, Anna; Phillips, Alan; Phillips, Peter William; Piacquadio, Giacinto; Piccaro, Elisa; Piccinini, Maurizio; Pickford, Andrew; Piec, Sebastian Marcin; Piegaia, Ricardo; Pilcher, James; Pilkington, Andrew; Pina, Joao Antonio; Pinamonti, Michele; Pinder, Alex; Pinfold, James; Ping, Jialun; Pinto, Belmiro; Pirotte, Olivier; Pizio, Caterina; Placakyte, Ringaile; Plamondon, Mathieu; Plano, Will; Pleier, Marc-Andre; Pleskach, Anatoly; Poblaguev, Andrei; Poddar, Sahill; Podlyski, Fabrice; Poggioli, Luc; Poghosyan, Tatevik; Pohl, Martin; Polci, Francesco; Polesello, Giacomo; Policicchio, Antonio; Polini, Alessandro; Poll, James; Polychronakos, Venetios; Pomarede, Daniel Marc; Pomeroy, Daniel; Pommes, Kathy; Pontecorvo, Ludovico; Pope, Bernard; Popeneciu, Gabriel Alexandru; Popovic, Dragan; Poppleton, Alan; Bueso, Xavier Portell; Porter, Robert; Posch, Christoph; Pospelov, Guennady; Pospisil, Stanislav; Potrap, Igor; Potter, Christina; Potter, Christopher; Poulard, Gilbert; Poveda, Joaquin; Prabhu, Robindra; Pralavorio, Pascal; Prasad, Srivas; Pravahan, Rishiraj; Prell, Soeren; Pretzl, Klaus Peter; Pribyl, Lukas; Price, Darren; Price, Lawrence; Price, Michael John; Prichard, Paul; Prieur, Damien; Primavera, Margherita; Prokofiev, Kirill; Prokoshin, Fedor; Protopopescu, Serban; Proudfoot, James; Prudent, Xavier; Przysiezniak, Helenka; Psoroulas, Serena; Ptacek, Elizabeth; Pueschel, Elisa; Purdham, John; Purohit, Milind; Puzo, Patrick; Pylypchenko, Yuriy; Qian, Jianming; Qian, Zuxuan; Qin, Zhonghua; Quadt, Arnulf; Quarrie, David; Quayle, William; Quinonez, Fernando; Raas, Marcel; Radescu, Voica; Radics, Balint; Rador, Tonguc; Ragusa, Francesco; Rahal, Ghita; Rahimi, Amir; Rahm, David; Rajagopalan, Srinivasan; Rammensee, Michael; Rammes, Marcus; Ramstedt, Magnus; Randle-Conde, Aidan Sean; Randrianarivony, Koloina; Ratoff, Peter; Rauscher, Felix; Rauter, Emanuel; Raymond, Michel; Read, Alexander Lincoln; Rebuzzi, Daniela; Redelbach, Andreas; Redlinger, George; Reece, Ryan; Reeves, Kendall; Reichold, Armin; Reinherz-Aronis, Erez; Reinsch, Andreas; Reisinger, Ingo; Reljic, Dusan; Rembser, Christoph; Ren, Zhongliang; Renaud, Adrien; Renkel, Peter; Rescigno, Marco; Resconi, Silvia; Resende, Bernardo; Reznicek, Pavel; Rezvani, Reyhaneh; Richards, Alexander; Richter, Robert; Richter-Was, Elzbieta; Ridel, Melissa; Rieke, Stefan; Rijpstra, Manouk; Rijssenbeek, Michael; Rimoldi, Adele; Rinaldi, Lorenzo; Rios, Ryan Randy; Riu, Imma; Rivoltella, Giancesare; Rizatdinova, Flera; Rizvi, Eram; Robertson, Steven; Robichaud-Veronneau, Andree; Robinson, Dave; Robinson, James; Robinson, Mary; Robson, Aidan; Rocha de Lima, Jose Guilherme; Roda, Chiara; Roda Dos Santos, Denis; Rodier, Stephane; Rodriguez, Diego; Roe, Adam; Roe, Shaun; Rohne, Ole; Rojo, Victoria; Rolli, Simona; Romaniouk, Anatoli; Romanov, Victor; Romeo, Gaston; Roos, Lydia; Ros, Eduardo; Rosati, Stefano; Rosbach, Kilian; Rose, Anthony; Rose, Matthew; Rosenbaum, Gabriel; Rosenberg, Eli; Rosendahl, Peter Lundgaard; Rosenthal, Oliver; Rosselet, Laurent; Rossetti, Valerio; Rossi, Elvira; Rossi, Leonardo Paolo; Rossi, Lucio; Rotaru, Marina; Roth, Itamar; Rothberg, Joseph; Rousseau, David; Royon, Christophe; Rozanov, Alexander; Rozen, Yoram; Ruan, Xifeng; Rubinskiy, Igor; Ruckert, Benjamin; Ruckstuhl, Nicole; Rud, Viacheslav; Rudolph, Christian; Rudolph, Gerald; Ruhr, Frederik; Ruggieri, Federico; Ruiz-Martinez, Aranzazu; Rulikowska-Zarebska, Elzbieta; Rumiantsev, Viktor; Rumyantsev, Leonid; Runge, Kay; Runolfsson, Ogmundur; Rurikova, Zuzana; Rusakovich, Nikolai; Rust, Dave; Rutherfoord, John; Ruwiedel, Christoph; Ruzicka, Pavel; Ryabov, Yury; Ryadovikov, Vasily; Ryan, Patrick; Rybar, Martin; Rybkin, Grigori; Ryder, Nick; Rzaeva, Sevda; Saavedra, Aldo; Sadeh, Iftach; Sadrozinski, Hartmut; Sadykov, Renat; Safai Tehrani, Francesco; Sakamoto, Hiroshi; Salamanna, Giuseppe; Salamon, Andrea; Saleem, Muhammad; Salihagic, Denis; Salnikov, Andrei; Salt, Jose; Salvachua Ferrando, Belen; Salvatore, Daniela; Salvatore, Pasquale Fabrizio; Salvucci, Antonio; Salzburger, Andreas; Sampsonidis, Dimitrios; Samset, Bjorn Hallvard; Sanchez, Arturo; Sandaker, Heidi; Sander, Heinz Georg; Sanders, Michiel; Sandhoff, Marisa; Sandoval, Tanya; Sandoval, Carlos; Sandstroem, Rikard; Sandvoss, Stephan; Sankey, Dave; Sansoni, Andrea; Santamarina Rios, Cibran; Santoni, Claudio; Santonico, Rinaldo; Santos, Helena; Saraiva, Joao; Sarangi, Tapas; Sarkisyan-Grinbaum, Edward; Sarri, Francesca; Sartisohn, Georg; Sasaki, Osamu; Sasaki, Takashi; Sasao, Noboru; Satsounkevitch, Igor; Sauvage, Gilles; Sauvan, Emmanuel; Sauvan, Jean-Baptiste; Savard, Pierre; Savinov, Vladimir; Savu, Dan Octavian; Savva, Panagiota; Sawyer, Lee; Saxon, David; Says, Louis-Pierre; Sbarra, Carla; Sbrizzi, Antonio; Scallon, Olivia; Scannicchio, Diana; Schaarschmidt, Jana; Schacht, Peter; Schafer, Uli; Schaepe, Steffen; Schaetzel, Sebastian; Schaffer, Arthur; Schaile, Dorothee; Schamberger, R. Dean; Schamov, Andrey; Scharf, Veit; Schegelsky, Valery; Scheirich, Daniel; Schernau, Michael; Scherzer, Max; Schiavi, Carlo; Schieck, Jochen; Schioppa, Marco; Schlenker, Stefan; Schlereth, James; Schmidt, Evelyn; Schmieden, Kristof; Schmitt, Christian; Schmitt, Sebastian; Schmitz, Martin; Schoning, Andre; Schott, Matthias; Schouten, Doug; Schovancova, Jaroslava; Schram, Malachi; Schroeder, Christian; Schroer, Nicolai; Schuh, Silvia; Schuler, Georges; Schultes, Joachim; Schultz-Coulon, Hans-Christian; Schulz, Holger; Schumacher, Jan; Schumacher, Markus; Schumm, Bruce; Schune, Philippe; Schwanenberger, Christian; Schwartzman, Ariel; Schwemling, Philippe; Schwienhorst, Reinhard; Schwierz, Rainer; Schwindling, Jerome; Schwindt, Thomas; Scott, Bill; Searcy, Jacob; Sedykh, Evgeny; Segura, Ester; Seidel, Sally; Seiden, Abraham; Seifert, Frank; Seixas, Jose; Sekhniaidze, Givi; Seliverstov, Dmitry; Sellden, Bjoern; Sellers, Graham; Seman, Michal; Semprini-Cesari, Nicola; Serfon, Cedric; Serin, Laurent; Seuster, Rolf; Severini, Horst; Sevior, Martin; Sfyrla, Anna; Shabalina, Elizaveta; Shamim, Mansoora; Shan, Lianyou; Shank, James; Shao, Qi Tao; Shapiro, Marjorie; Shatalov, Pavel; Shaver, Leif; Shaw, Kate; Sherman, Daniel; Sherwood, Peter; Shibata, Akira; Shichi, Hideharu; Shimizu, Shima; Shimojima, Makoto; Shin, Taeksu; Shmeleva, Alevtina; Shochet, Mel; Short, Daniel; Shupe, Michael; Sicho, Petr; Sidoti, Antonio; Siebel, Anca-Mirela; Siegert, Frank; Siegrist, James; Sijacki, Djordje; Silbert, Ohad; Silva, Jose; Silver, Yiftah; Silverstein, Daniel; Silverstein, Samuel; Simak, Vladislav; Simard, Olivier; Simic, Ljiljana; Simion, Stefan; Simmons, Brinick; Simoniello, Rosa; Simonyan, Margar; Sinervo, Pekka; Sinev, Nikolai; Sipica, Valentin; Siragusa, Giovanni; Sircar, Anirvan; Sisakyan, Alexei; Sivoklokov, Serguei; Sjolin, Jorgen; Sjursen, Therese; Skinnari, Louise Anastasia; Skovpen, Kirill; Skubic, Patrick; Skvorodnev, Nikolai; Slater, Mark; Slavicek, Tomas; Sliwa, Krzysztof; Sloan, Terrence; Sloper, John erik; Smakhtin, Vladimir; Smirnov, Sergei; Smirnova, Lidia; Smirnova, Oxana; Smith, Ben Campbell; Smith, Douglas; Smith, Kenway; Smizanska, Maria; Smolek, Karel; Snesarev, Andrei; Snow, Steve; Snow, Joel; Snuverink, Jochem; Snyder, Scott; Soares, Mara; Sobie, Randall; Sodomka, Jaromir; Soffer, Abner; Solans, Carlos; Solar, Michael; Solc, Jaroslav; Soldatov, Evgeny; Soldevila, Urmila; Solfaroli Camillocci, Elena; Solodkov, Alexander; Solovyanov, Oleg; Sondericker, John; Soni, Nitesh; Sopko, Vit; Sopko, Bruno; Sorbi, Massimo; Sosebee, Mark; Soukharev, Andrey; Spagnolo, Stefania; Spano, Francesco; Spighi, Roberto; Spigo, Giancarlo; Spila, Federico; Spiriti, Eleuterio; Spiwoks, Ralf; Spousta, Martin; Spreitzer, Teresa; Spurlock, Barry; St. Denis, Richard Dante; Stahl, Thorsten; Stahlman, Jonathan; Stamen, Rainer; Stanecka, Ewa; Stanek, Robert; Stanescu, Cristian; Stapnes, Steinar; Starchenko, Evgeny; Stark, Jan; Staroba, Pavel; Starovoitov, Pavel; Staude, Arnold; Stavina, Pavel; Stavropoulos, Georgios; Steele, Genevieve; Steinbach, Peter; Steinberg, Peter; Stekl, Ivan; Stelzer, Bernd; Stelzer, Harald Joerg; Stelzer-Chilton, Oliver; Stenzel, Hasko; Stevenson, Kyle; Stewart, Graeme; Stillings, Jan Andre; Stockmanns, Tobias; Stockton, Mark; Stoerig, Kathrin; Stoicea, Gabriel; Stonjek, Stefan; Strachota, Pavel; Stradling, Alden; Straessner, Arno; Strandberg, Jonas; Strandberg, Sara; Strandlie, Are; Strang, Michael; Strauss, Emanuel; Strauss, Michael; Strizenec, Pavol; Strohmer, Raimund; Strom, David; Strong, John; Stroynowski, Ryszard; Strube, Jan; Stugu, Bjarne; Stumer, Iuliu; Stupak, John; Sturm, Philipp; Soh, Dart-yin; Su, Dong; Subramania, Halasya Siva; Succurro, Antonella; Sugaya, Yorihito; Sugimoto, Takuya; Suhr, Chad; Suita, Koichi; Suk, Michal; Sulin, Vladimir; Sultansoy, Saleh; Sumida, Toshi; Sun, Xiaohu; Sundermann, Jan Erik; Suruliz, Kerim; Sushkov, Serge; Susinno, Giancarlo; Sutton, Mark; Suzuki, Yu; Suzuki, Yuta; Svatos, Michal; Sviridov, Yuri; Swedish, Stephen; Sykora, Ivan; Sykora, Tomas; Szeless, Balazs; Sanchez, Javier; Ta, Duc; Tackmann, Kerstin; Taffard, Anyes; Tafirout, Reda; Taga, Adrian; Taiblum, Nimrod; Takahashi, Yuta; Takai, Helio; Takashima, Ryuichi; Takeda, Hiroshi; Takeshita, Tohru; Talby, Mossadek; Talyshev, Alexey; Tamsett, Matthew; Tanaka, Junichi; Tanaka, Reisaburo; Tanaka, Satoshi; Tanaka, Shuji; Tanaka, Yoshito; Tani, Kazutoshi; Tannoury, Nancy; Tappern, Geoffrey; Tapprogge, Stefan; Tardif, Dominique; Tarem, Shlomit; Tarrade, Fabien; Tartarelli, Giuseppe Francesco; Tas, Petr; Tasevsky, Marek; Tassi, Enrico; Tatarkhanov, Mous; Taylor, Christopher; Taylor, Frank; Taylor, Geoffrey; Taylor, Wendy; Teinturier, Marthe; Teixeira Dias Castanheira, Matilde; Teixeira-Dias, Pedro; Temming, Kim Katrin; Ten Kate, Herman; Teng, Ping-Kun; Terada, Susumu; Terashi, Koji; Terron, Juan; Terwort, Mark; Testa, Marianna; Teuscher, Richard; Thadome, Jocelyn; Therhaag, Jan; Theveneaux-Pelzer, Timothee; Thioye, Moustapha; Thoma, Sascha; Thomas, Juergen; Thompson, Emily; Thompson, Paul; Thompson, Peter; Thompson, Stan; Thomson, Evelyn; Thomson, Mark; Thun, Rudolf; Tian, Feng; Tic, Tom\\'{a}\\v{s}; Tikhomirov, Vladimir; Tikhonov, Yury; Timmermans, Charles; Tipton, Paul; Viegas, Florbela De Jes Tique Aires; Tisserant, Sylvain; Tobias, Jurgen; Toczek, Barbara; Todorov, Theodore; Todorova-Nova, Sharka; Toggerson, Brokk; Tojo, Junji; Tokar, Stanislav; Tokunaga, Kaoru; Tokushuku, Katsuo; Tollefson, Kirsten; Tomoto, Makoto; Tompkins, Lauren; Toms, Konstantin; Tong, Guoliang; Tonoyan, Arshak; Topfel, Cyril; Topilin, Nikolai; Torchiani, Ingo; Torrence, Eric; Torres, Heberth; Torro Pastor, Emma; Toth, Jozsef; Touchard, Francois; Tovey, Daniel; Traynor, Daniel; Trefzger, Thomas; Tremblet, Louis; Tricoli, Alesandro; Trigger, Isabel Marian; Trincaz-Duvoid, Sophie; Trinh, Thi Nguyet; Tripiana, Martin; Trischuk, William; Trivedi, Arjun; Trocme, Benjamin; Troncon, Clara; Trottier-McDonald, Michel; Trzupek, Adam; Tsarouchas, Charilaos; Tseng, Jeffrey; Tsiakiris, Menelaos; Tsiareshka, Pavel; Tsionou, Dimitra; Tsipolitis, Georgios; Tsiskaridze, Vakhtang; Tskhadadze, Edisher; Tsukerman, Ilya; Tsulaia, Vakhtang; Tsung, Jieh-Wen; Tsuno, Soshi; Tsybychev, Dmitri; Tua, Alan; Tuggle, Joseph; Turala, Michal; Turecek, Daniel; Turk Cakir, Ilkay; Turlay, Emmanuel; Turra, Ruggero; Tuts, Michael; Tykhonov, Andrii; Tylmad, Maja; Tyndel, Mike; Tyrvainen, Harri; Tzanakos, George; Uchida, Kirika; Ueda, Ikuo; Ueno, Ryuichi; Ugland, Maren; Uhlenbrock, Mathias; Uhrmacher, Michael; Ukegawa, Fumihiko; Unal, Guillaume; Underwood, David; Undrus, Alexander; Unel, Gokhan; Unno, Yoshinobu; Urbaniec, Dustin; Urkovsky, Evgeny; Urrejola, Pedro; Usai, Giulio; Uslenghi, Massimiliano; Vacavant, Laurent; Vacek, Vaclav; Vachon, Brigitte; Vahsen, Sven; Valenta, Jan; Valente, Paolo; Valentinetti, Sara; Valkar, Stefan; Valladolid Gallego, Eva; Vallecorsa, Sofia; Ferrer, Juan Antonio Valls; Van der Graaf, Harry; van der Kraaij, Erik; van der Leeuw, Robin; van der Poel, Egge; van der Ster, Daniel; Van Eijk, Bob; van Eldik, Niels; Van Gemmeren, Peter; van Kesteren, Zdenko; Van Vulpen, Ivo; Vandelli, Wainer; Vandoni, Giovanna; Vaniachine, Alexandre; Vankov, Peter; Vannucci, Francois; Varela Rodriguez, Fernando; Vari, Riccardo; Varnes, Erich; Varouchas, Dimitris; Vartapetian, Armen; Varvell, Kevin; Vassilakopoulos, Vassilios; Vazeille, Francois; Vegni, Guido; Veillet, Jean-Jacques; Vellidis, Constantine; Veloso, Filipe; Veness, Raymond; Veneziano, Stefano; Ventura, Andrea; Ventura, Daniel; Venturi, Manuela; Venturi, Nicola; Vercesi, Valerio; Verducci, Monica; Verkerke, Wouter; Vermeulen, Jos; Vest, Anja; Vetterli, Michel; Vichou, Irene; Vickey, Trevor; Viehhauser, Georg; Viel, Simon; Villa, Mauro; Villaplana Perez, Miguel; Vilucchi, Elisabetta; Vincter, Manuella; Vinek, Elisabeth; Vinogradov, Vladimir; Virchaux, Marc; Virzi, Joseph; Vitells, Ofer; Viti, Michele; Vivarelli, Iacopo; Vives Vaque, Francesc; Vlachos, Sotirios; Vlasak, Michal; Vlasov, Nikolai; Vogel, Adrian; Vokac, Petr; Volpi, Guido; Volpi, Matteo; Volpini, Giovanni; von der Schmitt, Hans; von Loeben, Joerg; von Radziewski, Holger; von Toerne, Eckhard; Vorobel, Vit; Vorobiev, Alexander; Vorwerk, Volker; Vos, Marcel; Voss, Rudiger; Voss, Thorsten Tobias; Vossebeld, Joost; Vranjes, Nenad; Vranjes Milosavljevic, Marija; Vrba, Vaclav; Vreeswijk, Marcel; Anh, Tuan Vu; Vuillermet, Raphael; Vukotic, Ilija; Wagner, Wolfgang; Wagner, Peter; Wahlen, Helmut; Wakabayashi, Jun; Walbersloh, Jorg; Walch, Shannon; Walder, James; Walker, Rodney; Walkowiak, Wolfgang; Wall, Richard; Waller, Peter; Wang, Chiho; Wang, Haichen; Wang, Hulin; Wang, Jike; Wang, Jin; Wang, Joshua C.; Wang, Rui; Wang, Song-Ming; Warburton, Andreas; Ward, Patricia; Warsinsky, Markus; Watkins, Peter; Watson, Alan; Watson, Miriam; Watts, Gordon; Watts, Stephen; Waugh, Anthony; Waugh, Ben; Weber, Jens; Weber, Marc; Weber, Michele; Weber, Pavel; Weidberg, Anthony; Weigell, Philipp; Weingarten, Jens; Weiser, Christian; Wellenstein, Hermann; Wells, Phillippa; Wen, Mei; Wenaus, Torre; Wendler, Shanti; Weng, Zhili; Wengler, Thorsten; Wenig, Siegfried; Wermes, Norbert; Werner, Matthias; Werner, Per; Werth, Michael; Wessels, Martin; Weydert, Carole; Whalen, Kathleen; Wheeler-Ellis, Sarah Jane; Whitaker, Scott; White, Andrew; White, Martin; Whitehead, Samuel Robert; Whiteson, Daniel; Whittington, Denver; Wicek, Francois; Wicke, Daniel; Wickens, Fred; Wiedenmann, Werner; Wielers, Monika; Wienemann, Peter; Wiglesworth, Craig; Wiik, Liv Antje Mari; Wijeratne, Peter Alexander; Wildauer, Andreas; Wildt, Martin Andre; Wilhelm, Ivan; Wilkens, Henric George; Will, Jonas Zacharias; Williams, Eric; Williams, Hugh; Willis, William; Willocq, Stephane; Wilson, John; Wilson, Michael Galante; Wilson, Alan; Wingerter-Seez, Isabelle; Winkelmann, Stefan; Winklmeier, Frank; Wittgen, Matthias; Wolter, Marcin Wladyslaw; Wolters, Helmut; Wong, Wei-Cheng; Wooden, Gemma; Wosiek, Barbara; Wotschack, Jorg; Woudstra, Martin; Wraight, Kenneth; Wright, Catherine; Wrona, Bozydar; Wu, Sau Lan; Wu, Xin; Wu, Yusheng; Wulf, Evan; Wunstorf, Renate; Wynne, Benjamin; Xaplanteris, Leonidas; Xella, Stefania; Xie, Song; Xie, Yigang; Xu, Chao; Xu, Da; Xu, Guofa; Yabsley, Bruce; Yacoob, Sahal; Yamada, Miho; Yamaguchi, Hiroshi; Yamamoto, Akira; Yamamoto, Kyoko; Yamamoto, Shimpei; Yamamura, Taiki; Yamanaka, Takashi; Yamaoka, Jared; Yamazaki, Takayuki; Yamazaki, Yuji; Yan, Zhen; Yang, Haijun; Yang, Un-Ki; Yang, Yi; Yang, Yi; Yang, Zhaoyu; Yanush, Serguei; Yao, Weiming; Yao, Yushu; Yasu, Yoshiji; Ybeles Smit, Gabriel Valentijn; Ye, Jingbo; Ye, Shuwei; Yilmaz, Metin; Yoosoofmiya, Reza; Yorita, Kohei; Yoshida, Riktura; Young, Charles; Youssef, Saul; Yu, Dantong; Yu, Jaehoon; Yu, Jie; Yuan, Li; Yurkewicz, Adam; Zaets, Vassilli; Zaidan, Remi; Zaitsev, Alexander; Zajacova, Zuzana; Zalite, Youris; Zanello, Lucia; Zarzhitsky, Pavel; Zaytsev, Alexander; Zeitnitz, Christian; Zeller, Michael; Zeman, Martin; Zemla, Andrzej; Zendler, Carolin; Zenin, Oleg; Zenis, Tibor; Zenonos, Zenonas; Zenz, Seth; Zerwas, Dirk; Zevi Della Porta, Giovanni; Zhan, Zhichao; Zhang, Dongliang; Zhang, Huaqiao; Zhang, Jinlong; Zhang, Xueyao; Zhang, Zhiqing; Zhao, Long; Zhao, Tianchi; Zhao, Zhengguo; Zhemchugov, Alexey; Zheng, Shuchen; Zhong, Jiahang; Zhou, Bing; Zhou, Ning; Zhou, Yue; Zhu, Cheng Guang; Zhu, Hongbo; Zhu, Junjie; Zhu, Yingchun; Zhuang, Xuai; Zhuravlov, Vadym; Zieminska, Daria; Zimmermann, Robert; Zimmermann, Simone; Zimmermann, Stephanie; Ziolkowski, Michael; Zitoun, Robert; Zivkovic, Lidija; Zmouchko, Viatcheslav; Zobernig, Georg; Zoccoli, Antonio; Zolnierowski, Yves; Zsenei, Andras; zur Nedden, Martin; Zutshi, Vishnu; Zwalinski, Lukasz

2012-01-03

The measurement of missing transverse momentum in the ATLAS detector, described in this paper, makes use of the full event reconstruction and a calibration based on reconstructed physics objects. The performance of the missing transverse momentum reconstruction is evaluated using data collected in pp collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV in 2010. Minimum bias events and events with jets of hadrons are used from data samples corresponding to an integrated luminosity of about 0.3 inverse nb and 600 inverse nb, together with events containing a Z boson decaying to two leptons (electrons or muons) or a W boson decaying to a lepton (electron or muon) and a neutrino, from a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of about 36 inverse pb. An estimate of the systematic uncertainty on the missing transverse momentum scale is presented.

Biologic mesh reconstruction of the pelvic floor after extralevator abdominoperineal excision; a systematic review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nasra N Alam

2016-02-01

Full Text Available IntroductionThe aim of this review is to provide an overview of the evidence for the use of biologic mesh in the reconstruction of the pelvic floor after extralevator abdominoperineal excision of the rectum (ELAPE.MethodsA systematic search of PubMed was conducted using the search terms ‘ELAPE’, ‘extralevator abdominoperineal excision of rectum’ or ‘extralevator abdominoperineal resection’. The search yielded 17 studies.ResultsBiologic mesh was used in perineal reconstruction in 463 cases. There were 41 perineal hernias reported but rates were not consistently reported in all studies. The most common complications were perineal wound infection (n = 93, perineal sinus and fistulae (n = 26 and perineal haematoma or seroma (n = 11. There were very few comparative studies, with only one RCT identified that compared patients undergoing ELAPE with perineal reconstruction using a biological mesh, with patients undergoing a conventional abdominoperineal excision of the rectum with no mesh. There was no significant difference in perineal hernia rates or perineal wound infections between the groups. Other comparative studies comparing the use of biologic mesh with techniques such as the use of myocutaneous flaps were of low quality.ConclusionsBiologic mesh-assisted perineal reconstruction is a promising technique to improve wound healing and has comparable complications rates to other techniques. However, there is not enough evidence to support its use in all patients who have undergone ELAPE. Results from high-quality prospective RCTs and national/international collaborative audits are required.

Dilepton reconstruction in Au+Au collisions at 1.23 AGeV with HADES

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sellheim, Patrick [Goethe-Universitaet Frankfurt (Germany); Collaboration: HADES-Collaboration

2016-07-01

In continuation of a systematic investigation of the emissivity of strongly interacting matter, HADES has recently measured the di-electron emission in Au+Au collisions at 1.23 AGeV beam energy. Due to the high track density reached for this collision system, different reconstruction strategies have been pursued to achieve optimal reconstruction efficiencies and purities. Electron (positron) candidates have been identified by means of an multi-variate analysis, where the neural network has been trained alternatively based on clean signal and background tracks from data and by simulated tracks. Moreover, the electron track candidates have been matched to rings using ring parameters of found rings or, alternatively, track candidates identified by time-of-flight only have been matched to ring signatures without running the ring finder before. This contribution presents the results of these analysis procedures and will discuss systematic uncertainties obtained. The statistics is sufficient to investigate double-differential distributions, like centrality dependence covering 45% most central events or transverse momentum distributions for different regions in invariant mass. Special emphasis will be given to the extraction of the radiation from the dense phase of the collision.

Control of systematic uncertainties in the storage ring search for an electric dipole moment by measuring the electric quadrupole moment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrzej Magiera

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Measurements of electric dipole moment (EDM for light hadrons with use of a storage ring have been proposed. The expected effect is very small, therefore various subtle effects need to be considered. In particular, interaction of particle’s magnetic dipole moment and electric quadrupole moment with electromagnetic field gradients can produce an effect of a similar order of magnitude as that expected for EDM. This paper describes a very promising method employing an rf Wien filter, allowing to disentangle that contribution from the genuine EDM effect. It is shown that both these effects could be separated by the proper setting of the rf Wien filter frequency and phase. In the EDM measurement the magnitude of systematic uncertainties plays a key role and they should be under strict control. It is shown that particles’ interaction with field gradients offers also the possibility to estimate global systematic uncertainties with the precision necessary for an EDM measurement with the planned accuracy.

Control of systematic uncertainties in the storage ring search for an electric dipole moment by measuring the electric quadrupole moment

Science.gov (United States)

Magiera, Andrzej

2017-09-01

Measurements of electric dipole moment (EDM) for light hadrons with use of a storage ring have been proposed. The expected effect is very small, therefore various subtle effects need to be considered. In particular, interaction of particle's magnetic dipole moment and electric quadrupole moment with electromagnetic field gradients can produce an effect of a similar order of magnitude as that expected for EDM. This paper describes a very promising method employing an rf Wien filter, allowing to disentangle that contribution from the genuine EDM effect. It is shown that both these effects could be separated by the proper setting of the rf Wien filter frequency and phase. In the EDM measurement the magnitude of systematic uncertainties plays a key role and they should be under strict control. It is shown that particles' interaction with field gradients offers also the possibility to estimate global systematic uncertainties with the precision necessary for an EDM measurement with the planned accuracy.

Uncertainties in the estimation of specific absorption rate during radiofrequency alternating magnetic field induced non-adiabatic heating of ferrofluids

Science.gov (United States)

Lahiri, B. B.; Ranoo, Surojit; Philip, John

2017-11-01

Magnetic fluid hyperthermia (MFH) is becoming a viable cancer treatment methodology where the alternating magnetic field induced heating of magnetic fluid is utilized for ablating the cancerous cells or making them more susceptible to the conventional treatments. The heating efficiency in MFH is quantified in terms of specific absorption rate (SAR), which is defined as the heating power generated per unit mass. In majority of the experimental studies, SAR is evaluated from the temperature rise curves, obtained under non-adiabatic experimental conditions, which is prone to various thermodynamic uncertainties. A proper understanding of the experimental uncertainties and its remedies is a prerequisite for obtaining accurate and reproducible SAR. Here, we study the thermodynamic uncertainties associated with peripheral heating, delayed heating, heat loss from the sample and spatial variation in the temperature profile within the sample. Using first order approximations, an adiabatic reconstruction protocol for the measured temperature rise curves is developed for SAR estimation, which is found to be in good agreement with those obtained from the computationally intense slope corrected method. Our experimental findings clearly show that the peripheral and delayed heating are due to radiation heat transfer from the heating coils and slower response time of the sensor, respectively. Our results suggest that the peripheral heating is linearly proportional to the sample area to volume ratio and coil temperature. It is also observed that peripheral heating decreases in presence of a non-magnetic insulating shielding. The delayed heating is found to contribute up to ~25% uncertainties in SAR values. As the SAR values are very sensitive to the initial slope determination method, explicit mention of the range of linear regression analysis is appropriate to reproduce the results. The effect of sample volume to area ratio on linear heat loss rate is systematically studied and the

Uncertainties in the estimation of specific absorption rate during radiofrequency alternating magnetic field induced non-adiabatic heating of ferrofluids

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lahiri, B B; Ranoo, Surojit; Philip, John

2017-01-01

Magnetic fluid hyperthermia (MFH) is becoming a viable cancer treatment methodology where the alternating magnetic field induced heating of magnetic fluid is utilized for ablating the cancerous cells or making them more susceptible to the conventional treatments. The heating efficiency in MFH is quantified in terms of specific absorption rate (SAR), which is defined as the heating power generated per unit mass. In majority of the experimental studies, SAR is evaluated from the temperature rise curves, obtained under non-adiabatic experimental conditions, which is prone to various thermodynamic uncertainties. A proper understanding of the experimental uncertainties and its remedies is a prerequisite for obtaining accurate and reproducible SAR. Here, we study the thermodynamic uncertainties associated with peripheral heating, delayed heating, heat loss from the sample and spatial variation in the temperature profile within the sample. Using first order approximations, an adiabatic reconstruction protocol for the measured temperature rise curves is developed for SAR estimation, which is found to be in good agreement with those obtained from the computationally intense slope corrected method. Our experimental findings clearly show that the peripheral and delayed heating are due to radiation heat transfer from the heating coils and slower response time of the sensor, respectively. Our results suggest that the peripheral heating is linearly proportional to the sample area to volume ratio and coil temperature. It is also observed that peripheral heating decreases in presence of a non-magnetic insulating shielding. The delayed heating is found to contribute up to ∼25% uncertainties in SAR values. As the SAR values are very sensitive to the initial slope determination method, explicit mention of the range of linear regression analysis is appropriate to reproduce the results. The effect of sample volume to area ratio on linear heat loss rate is systematically studied and

DS02 uncertainty analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaul, Dean C.; Egbert, Stephen D.; Woolson, William A.

2005-01-01

In order to avoid the pitfalls that so discredited DS86 and its uncertainty estimates, and to provide DS02 uncertainties that are both defensible and credible, this report not only presents the ensemble uncertainties assembled from uncertainties in individual computational elements and radiation dose components but also describes how these relate to comparisons between observed and computed quantities at critical intervals in the computational process. These comparisons include those between observed and calculated radiation free-field components, where observations include thermal- and fast-neutron activation and gamma-ray thermoluminescence, which are relevant to the estimated systematic uncertainty for DS02. The comparisons also include those between calculated and observed survivor shielding, where the observations consist of biodosimetric measurements for individual survivors, which are relevant to the estimated random uncertainty for DS02. (J.P.N.)

Electrons for Neutrinos: Using Electron Scattering to Develop New Energy Reconstruction for Future Deuterium-Based Neutrino Detectors

Science.gov (United States)

Silva, Adrian; Schmookler, Barak; Papadopoulou, Afroditi; Schmidt, Axel; Hen, Or; Khachatryan, Mariana; Weinstein, Lawrence

2017-09-01

Using wide phase-space electron scattering data, we study a novel technique for neutrino energy reconstruction for future neutrino oscillation experiments. Accelerator-based neutrino oscillation experiments require detailed understanding of neutrino-nucleus interactions, which are complicated by the underlying nuclear physics that governs the process. One area of concern is that neutrino energy must be reconstructed event-by-event from the final-state kinematics. In charged-current quasielastic scattering, Fermi motion of nucleons prevents exact energy reconstruction. However, in scattering from deuterium, the momentum of the electron and proton constrain the neutrino energy exactly, offering a new avenue for reducing systematic uncertainties. To test this approach, we analyzed d (e ,e' p) data taken with the CLAS detector at Jefferson Lab Hall B and made kinematic selection cuts to obtain quasielastic events. We estimated the remaining inelastic background by using d (e ,e' pπ-) events to produce a simulated dataset of events with an undetected π-. These results demonstrate the feasibility of energy reconstruction in a hypothetical future deuterium-based neutrino detector. Supported by the Paul E. Gray UROP Fund, MIT.

Systematic Analysis Of Ocean Colour Uncertainties

Science.gov (United States)

Lavender, Samantha

2013-12-01

This paper reviews current research into the estimation of uncertainties as a pixel-based measure to aid non- specialist users of remote sensing products. An example MERIS image, captured on the 28 March 2012, was processed with above-water atmospheric correction code. This was initially based on both the Antoine & Morel Standard Atmospheric Correction, with Bright Pixel correction component, and Doerffer Neural Network coastal water's approach. It's showed that analysis of the atmospheric by-products yield important information about the separation of the atmospheric and in-water signals, helping to sign-post possible uncertainties in the atmospheric correction results. Further analysis has concentrated on implementing a ‘simplistic' atmospheric correction so that the impact of changing the input auxiliary data can be analysed; the influence of changing surface pressure is demonstrated. Future work will focus on automating the analysis, so that the methodology can be implemented within an operational system.

A variational study on BRDF reconstruction in a structured light scanner

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Jannik Boll; Stets, Jonathan Dyssel; Lyngby, Rasmus Ahrenkiel

2017-01-01

Time-efficient acquisition of reflectance behavior together with surface geometry is a challenging problem. In this study, we investigate the impact of system parameter uncertainties when incorporating a data-driven BRDF reconstruction approach into the standard pipeline of a structured light...... setup. Results show that while uncertainties in vertex positions and normals have a high impact on the quality of reconstructed BRDFs, object geometry and light source properties have very little influence on the reconstructed BRDFs. With this analysis, practitioners now have insight in the tolerances...... required for accurate BRDF acquisition to work....

Methodologies of Uncertainty Propagation Calculation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chojnacki, Eric

2002-01-01

After recalling the theoretical principle and the practical difficulties of the methodologies of uncertainty propagation calculation, the author discussed how to propagate input uncertainties. He said there were two kinds of input uncertainty: - variability: uncertainty due to heterogeneity, - lack of knowledge: uncertainty due to ignorance. It was therefore necessary to use two different propagation methods. He demonstrated this in a simple example which he generalised, treating the variability uncertainty by the probability theory and the lack of knowledge uncertainty by the fuzzy theory. He cautioned, however, against the systematic use of probability theory which may lead to unjustifiable and illegitimate precise answers. Mr Chojnacki's conclusions were that the importance of distinguishing variability and lack of knowledge increased as the problem was getting more and more complex in terms of number of parameters or time steps, and that it was necessary to develop uncertainty propagation methodologies combining probability theory and fuzzy theory

Position reconstruction in LUX

Science.gov (United States)

Akerib, D. S.; Alsum, S.; Araújo, H. M.; Bai, X.; Bailey, A. J.; Balajthy, J.; Beltrame, P.; Bernard, E. P.; Bernstein, A.; Biesiadzinski, T. P.; Boulton, E. M.; Brás, P.; Byram, D.; Cahn, S. B.; Carmona-Benitez, M. C.; Chan, C.; Currie, A.; Cutter, J. E.; Davison, T. J. R.; Dobi, A.; Druszkiewicz, E.; Edwards, B. N.; Fallon, S. R.; Fan, A.; Fiorucci, S.; Gaitskell, R. J.; Genovesi, J.; Ghag, C.; Gilchriese, M. G. D.; Hall, C. R.; Hanhardt, M.; Haselschwardt, S. J.; Hertel, S. A.; Hogan, D. P.; Horn, M.; Huang, D. Q.; Ignarra, C. M.; Jacobsen, R. G.; Ji, W.; Kamdin, K.; Kazkaz, K.; Khaitan, D.; Knoche, R.; Larsen, N. A.; Lenardo, B. G.; Lesko, K. T.; Lindote, A.; Lopes, M. I.; Manalaysay, A.; Mannino, R. L.; Marzioni, M. F.; McKinsey, D. N.; Mei, D.-M.; Mock, J.; Moongweluwan, M.; Morad, J. A.; Murphy, A. St. J.; Nehrkorn, C.; Nelson, H. N.; Neves, F.; O'Sullivan, K.; Oliver-Mallory, K. C.; Palladino, K. J.; Pease, E. K.; Rhyne, C.; Shaw, S.; Shutt, T. A.; Silva, C.; Solmaz, M.; Solovov, V. N.; Sorensen, P.; Sumner, T. J.; Szydagis, M.; Taylor, D. J.; Taylor, W. C.; Tennyson, B. P.; Terman, P. A.; Tiedt, D. R.; To, W. H.; Tripathi, M.; Tvrznikova, L.; Uvarov, S.; Velan, V.; Verbus, J. R.; Webb, R. C.; White, J. T.; Whitis, T. J.; Witherell, M. S.; Wolfs, F. L. H.; Xu, J.; Yazdani, K.; Young, S. K.; Zhang, C.

2018-02-01

The (x, y) position reconstruction method used in the analysis of the complete exposure of the Large Underground Xenon (LUX) experiment is presented. The algorithm is based on a statistical test that makes use of an iterative method to recover the photomultiplier tube (PMT) light response directly from the calibration data. The light response functions make use of a two dimensional functional form to account for the photons reflected on the inner walls of the detector. To increase the resolution for small pulses, a photon counting technique was employed to describe the response of the PMTs. The reconstruction was assessed with calibration data including 83mKr (releasing a total energy of 41.5 keV) and 3H (β- with Q = 18.6 keV) decays, and a deuterium-deuterium (D-D) neutron beam (2.45 MeV) . Within the detector's fiducial volume, the reconstruction has achieved an (x, y) position uncertainty of σ = 0.82 cm and σ = 0.17 cm for events of only 200 and 4,000 detected electroluminescence photons respectively. Such signals are associated with electron recoils of energies ~0.25 keV and ~10 keV, respectively. The reconstructed position of the smallest events with a single electron emitted from the liquid surface (22 detected photons) has a horizontal (x, y) uncertainty of 2.13 cm.

Effectiveness and safety of cryotherapy after arthroscopic anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction. A systematic review of the literature.

Science.gov (United States)

Martimbianco, Ana Luiza Cabrera; Gomes da Silva, Brenda Nazaré; de Carvalho, Alan Pedrosa Viegas; Silva, Valter; Torloni, Maria Regina; Peccin, Maria Stella

2014-11-01

Cryotherapy is widely used in rehabilitation; however, its effectiveness after anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction remains uncertain. To investigate the effectiveness and safety of cryotherapy following ACL reconstruction through a systematic review, randomized and quasi-randomized clinical trials were searched in the databases: MEDLINE, EMBASE, CENTRAL, PEDro, SportDiscus, CINAHL, LILACS (June 2013). The primary outcomes measures were pain, edema and adverse events; the secondary outcomes were knee function, analgesic medication use, range of motion, blood loss, hospital stay, quality of life and patient satisfaction. The methodological quality of studies was evaluated using the Cochrane Collaboration risk-of-bias tool. Ten trials (a total of 573 patients) were included. Results of meta-analysis showed that the use of cold compression devices produced a significant reduction in pain scores 48 h after surgery (p cryotherapy. The risk for adverse events did not differ between patients receiving cryotherapy versus no treatment (p = 1.00). The limited evidence currently available is insufficient to draw definitive conclusions on the effectiveness of cryotherapy for other outcomes. There is a need for well designed, good quality randomized trials to answer other questions related to this intervention and increase the precision of future systematic reviews. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Uncertainty Analysis of Seebeck Coefficient and Electrical Resistivity Characterization

Science.gov (United States)

Mackey, Jon; Sehirlioglu, Alp; Dynys, Fred

2014-01-01

In order to provide a complete description of a materials thermoelectric power factor, in addition to the measured nominal value, an uncertainty interval is required. The uncertainty may contain sources of measurement error including systematic bias error and precision error of a statistical nature. The work focuses specifically on the popular ZEM-3 (Ulvac Technologies) measurement system, but the methods apply to any measurement system. The analysis accounts for sources of systematic error including sample preparation tolerance, measurement probe placement, thermocouple cold-finger effect, and measurement parameters; in addition to including uncertainty of a statistical nature. Complete uncertainty analysis of a measurement system allows for more reliable comparison of measurement data between laboratories.

Measurement of the track reconstruction efficiency at LHCb

CERN Document Server

Aaij, Roel; Adinolfi, Marco; Affolder, Anthony; Ajaltouni, Ziad; Akar, Simon; Albrecht, Johannes; Alessio, Federico; Alexander, Michael; Ali, Suvayu; Alkhazov, Georgy; Alvarez Cartelle, Paula; Alves Jr, Antonio; Amato, Sandra; Amerio, Silvia; Amhis, Yasmine; An, Liupan; Anderlini, Lucio; Anderson, Jonathan; Andreassen, Rolf; Andreotti, Mirco; Andrews, Jason; Appleby, Robert; Aquines Gutierrez, Osvaldo; Archilli, Flavio; Artamonov, Alexander; Artuso, Marina; Aslanides, Elie; Auriemma, Giulio; Baalouch, Marouen; Bachmann, Sebastian; Back, John; Badalov, Alexey; Baldini, Wander; Barlow, Roger; Barschel, Colin; Barsuk, Sergey; Barter, William; Batozskaya, Varvara; Battista, Vincenzo; Bay, Aurelio; Beaucourt, Leo; Beddow, John; Bedeschi, Franco; Bediaga, Ignacio; Belogurov, Sergey; Belous, Konstantin; Belyaev, Ivan; Ben-Haim, Eli; Bencivenni, Giovanni; Benson, Sean; Benton, Jack; Berezhnoy, Alexander; Bernet, Roland; Bettler, Marc-Olivier; van Beuzekom, Martinus; Bien, Alexander; Bifani, Simone; Bird, Thomas; Bizzeti, Andrea; Bjørnstad, Pål Marius; Blake, Thomas; Blanc, Frédéric; Blouw, Johan; Blusk, Steven; Bocci, Valerio; Bondar, Alexander; Bondar, Nikolay; Bonivento, Walter; Borghi, Silvia; Borgia, Alessandra; Borsato, Martino; Bowcock, Themistocles; Bowen, Espen Eie; Bozzi, Concezio; Brambach, Tobias; van den Brand, Johannes; Bressieux, Joël; Brett, David; Britsch, Markward; Britton, Thomas; Brodzicka, Jolanta; Brook, Nicholas; Brown, Henry; Bursche, Albert; Busetto, Giovanni; Buytaert, Jan; Cadeddu, Sandro; Calabrese, Roberto; Calvi, Marta; Calvo Gomez, Miriam; Campana, Pierluigi; Campora Perez, Daniel; Carbone, Angelo; Carboni, Giovanni; Cardinale, Roberta; Cardini, Alessandro; Carson, Laurence; Carvalho Akiba, Kazuyoshi; Casse, Gianluigi; Cassina, Lorenzo; Castillo Garcia, Lucia; Cattaneo, Marco; Cauet, Christophe; Cenci, Riccardo; Charles, Matthew; Charpentier, Philippe; Chen, Shanzhen; Cheung, Shu-Faye; Chiapolini, Nicola; Chrzaszcz, Marcin; Ciba, Krzystof; Cid Vidal, Xabier; Ciezarek, Gregory; Clarke, Peter; Clemencic, Marco; Cliff, Harry; Closier, Joel; Coco, Victor; Cogan, Julien; Cogneras, Eric; Collins, Paula; Comerma-Montells, Albert; Contu, Andrea; Cook, Andrew; Coombes, Matthew; Coquereau, Samuel; Corti, Gloria; Corvo, Marco; Counts, Ian; Couturier, Benjamin; Cowan, Greig; Craik, Daniel Charles; Cruz Torres, Melissa Maria; Cunliffe, Samuel; Currie, Robert; D'Ambrosio, Carmelo; Dalseno, Jeremy; David, Pascal; David, Pieter; Davis, Adam; De Bruyn, Kristof; De Capua, Stefano; De Cian, Michel; De Miranda, Jussara; De Paula, Leandro; De Silva, Weeraddana; De Simone, Patrizia; Decamp, Daniel; Deckenhoff, Mirko; Del Buono, Luigi; Déléage, Nicolas; Derkach, Denis; Deschamps, Olivier; Dettori, Francesco; Di Canto, Angelo; Dijkstra, Hans; Donleavy, Stephanie; Dordei, Francesca; Dorigo, Mirco; Dosil Suárez, Alvaro; Dossett, David; Dovbnya, Anatoliy; Dreimanis, Karlis; Dujany, Giulio; Dupertuis, Frederic; Durante, Paolo; Dzhelyadin, Rustem; Dziurda, Agnieszka; Dzyuba, Alexey; Easo, Sajan; Egede, Ulrik; Egorychev, Victor; Eidelman, Semen; Eisenhardt, Stephan; Eitschberger, Ulrich; Ekelhof, Robert; Eklund, Lars; El Rifai, Ibrahim; Elsasser, Christian; Ely, Scott; Esen, Sevda; Evans, Hannah Mary; Evans, Timothy; Falabella, Antonio; Färber, Christian; Farinelli, Chiara; Farley, Nathanael; Farry, Stephen; Fay, Robert; Ferguson, Dianne; Fernandez Albor, Victor; Ferreira Rodrigues, Fernando; Ferro-Luzzi, Massimiliano; Filippov, Sergey; Fiore, Marco; Fiorini, Massimiliano; Firlej, Miroslaw; Fitzpatrick, Conor; Fiutowski, Tomasz; Fontana, Marianna; Fontanelli, Flavio; Forty, Roger; Francisco, Oscar; Frank, Markus; Frei, Christoph; Frosini, Maddalena; Fu, Jinlin; Furfaro, Emiliano; Gallas Torreira, Abraham; Galli, Domenico; Gallorini, Stefano; Gambetta, Silvia; Gandelman, Miriam; Gandini, Paolo; Gao, Yuanning; García Pardiñas, Julián; Garofoli, Justin; Garra Tico, Jordi; Garrido, Lluis; Gaspar, Clara; Gauld, Rhorry; Gavardi, Laura; Gavrilov, Gennadii; Gersabeck, Evelina; Gersabeck, Marco; Gershon, Timothy; Ghez, Philippe; Gianelle, Alessio; Giani', Sebastiana; Gibson, Valerie; Giubega, Lavinia-Helena; Gligorov, V.V.; Göbel, Carla; Golubkov, Dmitry; Golutvin, Andrey; Gomes, Alvaro; Gotti, Claudio; Grabalosa Gándara, Marc; Graciani Diaz, Ricardo; Granado Cardoso, Luis Alberto; Graugés, Eugeni; Graziani, Giacomo; Grecu, Alexandru; Greening, Edward; Gregson, Sam; Griffith, Peter; Grillo, Lucia; Grünberg, Oliver; Gui, Bin; Gushchin, Evgeny; Guz, Yury; Gys, Thierry; Hadjivasiliou, Christos; Haefeli, Guido; Haen, Christophe; Haines, Susan; Hall, Samuel; Hamilton, Brian; Hampson, Thomas; Han, Xiaoxue; Hansmann-Menzemer, Stephanie; Harnew, Neville; Harnew, Samuel; Harrison, Jonathan; He, Jibo; Head, Timothy; Heijne, Veerle; Hennessy, Karol; Henrard, Pierre; Henry, Louis; Hernando Morata, Jose Angel; van Herwijnen, Eric; Heß, Miriam; Hicheur, Adlène; Hill, Donal; Hoballah, Mostafa; Hombach, Christoph; Hulsbergen, Wouter; Hunt, Philip; Hussain, Nazim; Hutchcroft, David; Hynds, Daniel; Idzik, Marek; Ilten, Philip; Jacobsson, Richard; Jaeger, Andreas; Jalocha, Pawel; Jans, Eddy; Jaton, Pierre; Jawahery, Abolhassan; Jing, Fanfan; John, Malcolm; Johnson, Daniel; Jones, Christopher; Joram, Christian; Jost, Beat; Jurik, Nathan; Kaballo, Michael; Kandybei, Sergii; Kanso, Walaa; Karacson, Matthias; Karbach, Moritz; Karodia, Sarah; Kelsey, Matthew; Kenyon, Ian; Ketel, Tjeerd; Khanji, Basem; Khurewathanakul, Chitsanu; Klaver, Suzanne; Klimaszewski, Konrad; Kochebina, Olga; Kolpin, Michael; Komarov, Ilya; Koopman, Rose; Koppenburg, Patrick; Korolev, Mikhail; Kozlinskiy, Alexandr; Kravchuk, Leonid; Kreplin, Katharina; Kreps, Michal; Krocker, Georg; Krokovny, Pavel; Kruse, Florian; Kucewicz, Wojciech; Kucharczyk, Marcin; Kudryavtsev, Vasily; Kurek, Krzysztof; Kvaratskheliya, Tengiz; La Thi, Viet Nga; Lacarrere, Daniel; Lafferty, George; Lai, Adriano; Lambert, Dean; Lambert, Robert W; Lanfranchi, Gaia; Langenbruch, Christoph; Langhans, Benedikt; Latham, Thomas; Lazzeroni, Cristina; Le Gac, Renaud; van Leerdam, Jeroen; Lees, Jean-Pierre; Lefèvre, Regis; Leflat, Alexander; Lefrançois, Jacques; Leo, Sabato; Leroy, Olivier; Lesiak, Tadeusz; Leverington, Blake; Li, Yiming; Likhomanenko, Tatiana; Liles, Myfanwy; Lindner, Rolf; Linn, Christian; Lionetto, Federica; Liu, Bo; Lohn, Stefan; Longstaff, Iain; Lopes, Jose; Lopez-March, Neus; Lowdon, Peter; Lu, Haiting; Lucchesi, Donatella; Luo, Haofei; Lupato, Anna; Luppi, Eleonora; Lupton, Oliver; Machefert, Frederic; Machikhiliyan, Irina V; Maciuc, Florin; Maev, Oleg; Malde, Sneha; Manca, Giulia; Mancinelli, Giampiero; Maratas, Jan; Marchand, Jean François; Marconi, Umberto; Marin Benito, Carla; Marino, Pietro; Märki, Raphael; Marks, Jörg; Martellotti, Giuseppe; Martens, Aurelien; Martín Sánchez, Alexandra; Martinelli, Maurizio; Martinez Santos, Diego; Martinez Vidal, Fernando; Martins Tostes, Danielle; Massafferri, André; Matev, Rosen; Mathe, Zoltan; Matteuzzi, Clara; Mazurov, Alexander; McCann, Michael; McCarthy, James; McNab, Andrew; McNulty, Ronan; McSkelly, Ben; Meadows, Brian; Meier, Frank; Meissner, Marco; Merk, Marcel; Milanes, Diego Alejandro; Minard, Marie-Noelle; Moggi, Niccolò; Molina Rodriguez, Josue; Monteil, Stephane; Morandin, Mauro; Morawski, Piotr; Mordà, Alessandro; Morello, Michael Joseph; Moron, Jakub; Morris, Adam Benjamin; Mountain, Raymond; Muheim, Franz; Müller, Katharina; Mussini, Manuel; Muster, Bastien; Naik, Paras; Nakada, Tatsuya; Nandakumar, Raja; Nasteva, Irina; Needham, Matthew; Neri, Nicola; Neubert, Sebastian; Neufeld, Niko; Neuner, Max; Nguyen, Anh Duc; Nguyen, Thi-Dung; Nguyen-Mau, Chung; Nicol, Michelle; Niess, Valentin; Niet, Ramon; Nikitin, Nikolay; Nikodem, Thomas; Novoselov, Alexey; O'Hanlon, Daniel Patrick; Oblakowska-Mucha, Agnieszka; Obraztsov, Vladimir; Oggero, Serena; Ogilvy, Stephen; Okhrimenko, Oleksandr; Oldeman, Rudolf; Onderwater, Gerco; Orlandea, Marius; Otalora Goicochea, Juan Martin; Owen, Patrick; Oyanguren, Maria Arantza; Pal, Bilas Kanti; Palano, Antimo; Palombo, Fernando; Palutan, Matteo; Panman, Jacob; Papanestis, Antonios; Pappagallo, Marco; Pappalardo, Luciano; Parkes, Christopher; Parkinson, Christopher John; Passaleva, Giovanni; Patel, Girish; Patel, Mitesh; Patrignani, Claudia; Pazos Alvarez, Antonio; Pearce, Alex; Pellegrino, Antonio; Pepe Altarelli, Monica; Perazzini, Stefano; Perez Trigo, Eliseo; Perret, Pascal; Perrin-Terrin, Mathieu; Pescatore, Luca; Pesen, Erhan; Petridis, Konstantin; Petrolini, Alessandro; Picatoste Olloqui, Eduardo; Pietrzyk, Boleslaw; Pilař, Tomas; Pinci, Davide; Pistone, Alessandro; Playfer, Stephen; Plo Casasus, Maximo; Polci, Francesco; Poluektov, Anton; Polycarpo, Erica; Popov, Alexander; Popov, Dmitry; Popovici, Bogdan; Potterat, Cédric; Price, Eugenia; Prisciandaro, Jessica; Pritchard, Adrian; Prouve, Claire; Pugatch, Valery; Puig Navarro, Albert; Punzi, Giovanni; Qian, Wenbin; Rachwal, Bartolomiej; Rademacker, Jonas; Rakotomiaramanana, Barinjaka; Rama, Matteo; Rangel, Murilo; Raniuk, Iurii; Rauschmayr, Nathalie; Raven, Gerhard; Reichert, Stefanie; Reid, Matthew; dos Reis, Alberto; Ricciardi, Stefania; Richards, Sophie; Rihl, Mariana; Rinnert, Kurt; Rives Molina, Vincente; Roa Romero, Diego; Robbe, Patrick; Rodrigues, Ana Barbara; Rodrigues, Eduardo; Rodriguez Perez, Pablo; Roiser, Stefan; Romanovsky, Vladimir; Romero Vidal, Antonio; Rotondo, Marcello; Rouvinet, Julien; Ruf, Thomas; Ruffini, Fabrizio; Ruiz, Hugo; Ruiz Valls, Pablo; Saborido Silva, Juan Jose; Sagidova, Naylya; Sail, Paul; Saitta, Biagio; Salustino Guimaraes, Valdir; Sanchez Mayordomo, Carlos; Sanmartin Sedes, Brais; Santacesaria, Roberta; Santamarina Rios, Cibran; Santovetti, Emanuele; Sarti, Alessio; Satriano, Celestina; Satta, Alessia; Saunders, Daniel Martin; Savrie, Mauro; Savrina, Darya; Schiller, Manuel; Schindler, Heinrich; Schlupp, Maximilian; Schmelling, Michael; Schmidt, Burkhard; Schneider, Olivier; Schopper, Andreas; Schune, Marie Helene; Schwemmer, Rainer; Sciascia, Barbara; Sciubba, Adalberto; Seco, Marcos; Semennikov, Alexander; Sepp, Indrek; Serra, Nicola; Serrano, Justine; Sestini, Lorenzo; Seyfert, Paul; Shapkin, Mikhail; Shapoval, Illya; Shcheglov, Yury; Shears, Tara; Shekhtman, Lev; Shevchenko, Vladimir; Shires, Alexander; Silva Coutinho, Rafael; Simi, Gabriele; Sirendi, Marek; Skidmore, Nicola; Skwarnicki, Tomasz; Smith, Anthony; Smith, Edmund; Smith, Eluned; Smith, Jackson; Smith, Mark; Snoek, Hella; Sokoloff, Michael; Soler, Paul; Soomro, Fatima; Souza, Daniel; Souza De Paula, Bruno; Spaan, Bernhard; Sparkes, Ailsa; Spradlin, Patrick; Sridharan, Srikanth; Stagni, Federico; Stahl, Marian; Stahl, Sascha; Steinkamp, Olaf; Stenyakin, Oleg; Stevenson, Scott; Stoica, Sabin; Stone, Sheldon; Storaci, Barbara; Stracka, Simone; Straticiuc, Mihai; Straumann, Ulrich; Stroili, Roberto; Subbiah, Vijay Kartik; Sun, Liang; Sutcliffe, William; Swientek, Krzysztof; Swientek, Stefan; Syropoulos, Vasileios; Szczekowski, Marek; Szczypka, Paul; Szilard, Daniela; Szumlak, Tomasz; T'Jampens, Stephane; Teklishyn, Maksym; Tellarini, Giulia; Teubert, Frederic; Thomas, Christopher; Thomas, Eric; van Tilburg, Jeroen; Tisserand, Vincent; Tobin, Mark; Tolk, Siim; Tomassetti, Luca; Tonelli, Diego; Topp-Joergensen, Stig; Torr, Nicholas; Tournefier, Edwige; Tourneur, Stephane; Tran, Minh Tâm; Tresch, Marco; Tsaregorodtsev, Andrei; Tsopelas, Panagiotis; Tuning, Niels; Ubeda Garcia, Mario; Ukleja, Artur; Ustyuzhanin, Andrey; Uwer, Ulrich; Vagnoni, Vincenzo; Valenti, Giovanni; Vallier, Alexis; Vazquez Gomez, Ricardo; Vazquez Regueiro, Pablo; Vázquez Sierra, Carlos; Vecchi, Stefania; Velthuis, Jaap; Veltri, Michele; Veneziano, Giovanni; Vesterinen, Mika; Viaud, Benoit; Vieira, Daniel; Vieites Diaz, Maria; Vilasis-Cardona, Xavier; Vollhardt, Achim; Volyanskyy, Dmytro; Voong, David; Vorobyev, Alexey; Vorobyev, Vitaly; Voß, Christian; Voss, Helge; de Vries, Jacco; Waldi, Roland; Wallace, Charlotte; Wallace, Ronan; Walsh, John; Wandernoth, Sebastian; Wang, Jianchun; Ward, David; Watson, Nigel; Websdale, David; Whitehead, Mark; Wicht, Jean; Wiedner, Dirk; Wilkinson, Guy; Williams, Matthew; Williams, Mike; Wilson, Fergus; Wimberley, Jack; Wishahi, Julian; Wislicki, Wojciech; Witek, Mariusz; Wormser, Guy; Wotton, Stephen; Wright, Simon; Wu, Suzhi; Wyllie, Kenneth; Xie, Yuehong; Xing, Zhou; Xu, Zhirui; Yang, Zhenwei; Yuan, Xuhao; Yushchenko, Oleg; Zangoli, Maria; Zavertyaev, Mikhail; Zhang, Liming; Zhang, Wen Chao; Zhang, Yanxi; Zhelezov, Alexey; Zhokhov, Anatoly; Zhong, Liang; Zvyagin, Alexander

2015-02-12

The determination of track reconstruction efficiencies at LHCb using $J/\\psi\\rightarrow\\mu^{+}\\mu^{-}$ decays is presented. Efficiencies above $95\\%$ are found for the data taking periods in 2010, 2011, and 2012. The ratio of the track reconstruction efficiency of muons in data and simulation is compatible with unity and measured with an uncertainty of $0.8\\,\\%$ for data taking in 2010, and at a precision of $0.4\\,\\%$ for data taking in 2011 and 2012. For hadrons an additional $1.4\\,\\%$ uncertainty due to material interactions is assumed. This result is crucial for accurate cross section and branching fraction measurements in LHCb.

Model uncertainties in top-quark physics

CERN Document Server

Seidel, Markus

2014-01-01

The ATLAS and CMS collaborations at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) are studying the top quark in pp collisions at 7 and 8 TeV. Due to the large integrated luminosity, precision measurements of production cross-sections and properties are often limited by systematic uncertainties. An overview of the modeling uncertainties for simulated events is given in this report.

Technical Note: Probabilistically constraining proxy age–depth models within a Bayesian hierarchical reconstruction model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. P. Werner

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Reconstructions of the late-Holocene climate rely heavily upon proxies that are assumed to be accurately dated by layer counting, such as measurements of tree rings, ice cores, and varved lake sediments. Considerable advances could be achieved if time-uncertain proxies were able to be included within these multiproxy reconstructions, and if time uncertainties were recognized and correctly modeled for proxies commonly treated as free of age model errors. Current approaches for accounting for time uncertainty are generally limited to repeating the reconstruction using each one of an ensemble of age models, thereby inflating the final estimated uncertainty – in effect, each possible age model is given equal weighting. Uncertainties can be reduced by exploiting the inferred space–time covariance structure of the climate to re-weight the possible age models. Here, we demonstrate how Bayesian hierarchical climate reconstruction models can be augmented to account for time-uncertain proxies. Critically, although a priori all age models are given equal probability of being correct, the probabilities associated with the age models are formally updated within the Bayesian framework, thereby reducing uncertainties. Numerical experiments show that updating the age model probabilities decreases uncertainty in the resulting reconstructions, as compared with the current de facto standard of sampling over all age models, provided there is sufficient information from other data sources in the spatial region of the time-uncertain proxy. This approach can readily be generalized to non-layer-counted proxies, such as those derived from marine sediments.

SEMI-EMPIRICAL WHITE DWARF INITIAL-FINAL MASS RELATIONSHIPS: A THOROUGH ANALYSIS OF SYSTEMATIC UNCERTAINTIES DUE TO STELLAR EVOLUTION MODELS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salaris, Maurizio; Serenelli, Aldo; Weiss, Achim; Miller Bertolami, Marcelo

2009-01-01

Using the most recent results about white dwarfs (WDs) in ten open clusters, we revisit semiempirical estimates of the initial-final mass relation (IFMR) in star clusters, with emphasis on the use of stellar evolution models. We discuss the influence of these models on each step of the derivation. One intention of our work is to use consistent sets of calculations both for the isochrones and the WD cooling tracks. The second one is to derive the range of systematic errors arising from stellar evolution theory. This is achieved by using different sources for the stellar models and by varying physical assumptions and input data. We find that systematic errors, including the determination of the cluster age, are dominating the initial mass values, while observational uncertainties influence the final mass primarily. After having determined the systematic errors, the initial-final mass relation allows us finally to draw conclusions about the physics of the stellar models, in particular about convective overshooting.

Using finite mixture models in thermal-hydraulics system code uncertainty analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carlos, S., E-mail: scarlos@iqn.upv.es [Department d’Enginyeria Química i Nuclear, Universitat Politècnica de València, Camí de Vera s.n, 46022 València (Spain); Sánchez, A. [Department d’Estadística Aplicada i Qualitat, Universitat Politècnica de València, Camí de Vera s.n, 46022 València (Spain); Ginestar, D. [Department de Matemàtica Aplicada, Universitat Politècnica de València, Camí de Vera s.n, 46022 València (Spain); Martorell, S. [Department d’Enginyeria Química i Nuclear, Universitat Politècnica de València, Camí de Vera s.n, 46022 València (Spain)

2013-09-15

Highlights: • Best estimate codes simulation needs uncertainty quantification. • The output variables can present multimodal probability distributions. • The analysis of multimodal distribution is performed using finite mixture models. • Two methods to reconstruct output variable probability distribution are used. -- Abstract: Nuclear Power Plant safety analysis is mainly based on the use of best estimate (BE) codes that predict the plant behavior under normal or accidental conditions. As the BE codes introduce uncertainties due to uncertainty in input parameters and modeling, it is necessary to perform uncertainty assessment (UA), and eventually sensitivity analysis (SA), of the results obtained. These analyses are part of the appropriate treatment of uncertainties imposed by current regulation based on the adoption of the best estimate plus uncertainty (BEPU) approach. The most popular approach for uncertainty assessment, based on Wilks’ method, obtains a tolerance/confidence interval, but it does not completely characterize the output variable behavior, which is required for an extended UA and SA. However, the development of standard UA and SA impose high computational cost due to the large number of simulations needed. In order to obtain more information about the output variable and, at the same time, to keep computational cost as low as possible, there has been a recent shift toward developing metamodels (model of model), or surrogate models, that approximate or emulate complex computer codes. In this way, there exist different techniques to reconstruct the probability distribution using the information provided by a sample of values as, for example, the finite mixture models. In this paper, the Expectation Maximization and the k-means algorithms are used to obtain a finite mixture model that reconstructs the output variable probability distribution from data obtained with RELAP-5 simulations. Both methodologies have been applied to a separated

Uncertainty Propagation in OMFIT

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Sterling; Meneghini, Orso; Sung, Choongki

2017-10-01

A rigorous comparison of power balance fluxes and turbulent model fluxes requires the propagation of uncertainties in the kinetic profiles and their derivatives. Making extensive use of the python uncertainties package, the OMFIT framework has been used to propagate covariant uncertainties to provide an uncertainty in the power balance calculation from the ONETWO code, as well as through the turbulent fluxes calculated by the TGLF code. The covariant uncertainties arise from fitting 1D (constant on flux surface) density and temperature profiles and associated random errors with parameterized functions such as a modified tanh. The power balance and model fluxes can then be compared with quantification of the uncertainties. No effort is made at propagating systematic errors. A case study will be shown for the effects of resonant magnetic perturbations on the kinetic profiles and fluxes at the top of the pedestal. A separate attempt at modeling the random errors with Monte Carlo sampling will be compared to the method of propagating the fitting function parameter covariant uncertainties. Work supported by US DOE under DE-FC02-04ER54698, DE-FG2-95ER-54309, DE-SC 0012656.

Measurement of the track reconstruction efficiency at LHCb

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Collaboration, The LHCb

2015-01-01

The determination of track reconstruction efficiencies at LHCb using J/ψ→μ + μ - decays is presented. Efficiencies above 95% are found for the data taking periods in 2010, 2011, and 2012. The ratio of the track reconstruction efficiency of muons in data and simulation is compatible with unity and measured with an uncertainty of 0.8 % for data taking in 2010, and at a precision of 0.4 % for data taking in 2011 and 2012. For hadrons an additional 1.4 % uncertainty due to material interactions is assumed. This result is crucial for accurate cross section and branching fraction measurements in LHCb

On proton CT reconstruction using MVCT-converted virtual proton projections

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang Dongxu; Mackie, T. Rockwell; Tome, Wolfgang A. [Department of Medical Physics, University of Wisconsin School of Medicine and Public Health, Madison, Wisconsin 53705 and Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Iowa Hospitals and Clinics, Iowa City, Iowa 52242 (United States); Department of Medical Physics, University of Wisconsin School of Medicine and Public Health, Madison, Wisconsin 53705 and Morgridge Institute of Research, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin 53715 (United States); Department of Medical Physics, University of Wisconsin School of Medicine and Public Health, Madison, Wisconsin 53705 and Oncophysics Institute, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Yeshiva University, Bronx, New York 10461 (United States)

2012-06-15

Purpose: To describe a novel methodology of converting megavoltage x-ray projections into virtual proton projections that are otherwise missing due to the proton range limit. These converted virtual proton projections can be used in the reconstruction of proton computed tomography (pCT). Methods: Relations exist between proton projections and multispectral megavoltage x-ray projections for human tissue. Based on these relations, these tissues can be categorized into: (a) adipose tissue; (b) nonadipose soft tissues; and (c) bone. These three tissue categories can be visibly identified on a regular megavoltage x-ray computed tomography (MVCT) image. With an MVCT image and its projection data available, the x-ray projections through heterogeneous anatomy can be converted to the corresponding proton projections using predetermined calibration curves for individual materials, aided by a coarse segmentation on the x-ray CT image. To show the feasibility of this approach, mathematical simulations were carried out. The converted proton projections, plotted on a proton sinogram, were compared to the simulated ground truth. Proton stopping power images were reconstructed using either the virtual proton projections only or a blend of physically available proton projections and virtual proton projections that make up for those missing due to the range limit. These images were compared to a reference image reconstructed from theoretically calculated proton projections. Results: The converted virtual projections had an uncertainty of {+-}0.8% compared to the calculated ground truth. Proton stopping power images reconstructed using a blend of converted virtual projections (48%) and physically available projections (52%) had an uncertainty of {+-}0.86% compared with that reconstructed from theoretically calculated projections. Reconstruction solely from converted virtual proton projections had an uncertainty of {+-}1.1% compared with that reconstructed from theoretical projections

On proton CT reconstruction using MVCT-converted virtual proton projections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Dongxu; Mackie, T. Rockwell; Tomé, Wolfgang A.

2012-01-01

Purpose: To describe a novel methodology of converting megavoltage x-ray projections into virtual proton projections that are otherwise missing due to the proton range limit. These converted virtual proton projections can be used in the reconstruction of proton computed tomography (pCT). Methods: Relations exist between proton projections and multispectral megavoltage x-ray projections for human tissue. Based on these relations, these tissues can be categorized into: (a) adipose tissue; (b) nonadipose soft tissues; and (c) bone. These three tissue categories can be visibly identified on a regular megavoltage x-ray computed tomography (MVCT) image. With an MVCT image and its projection data available, the x-ray projections through heterogeneous anatomy can be converted to the corresponding proton projections using predetermined calibration curves for individual materials, aided by a coarse segmentation on the x-ray CT image. To show the feasibility of this approach, mathematical simulations were carried out. The converted proton projections, plotted on a proton sinogram, were compared to the simulated ground truth. Proton stopping power images were reconstructed using either the virtual proton projections only or a blend of physically available proton projections and virtual proton projections that make up for those missing due to the range limit. These images were compared to a reference image reconstructed from theoretically calculated proton projections. Results: The converted virtual projections had an uncertainty of ±0.8% compared to the calculated ground truth. Proton stopping power images reconstructed using a blend of converted virtual projections (48%) and physically available projections (52%) had an uncertainty of ±0.86% compared with that reconstructed from theoretically calculated projections. Reconstruction solely from converted virtual proton projections had an uncertainty of ±1.1% compared with that reconstructed from theoretical projections. If

A multicenter study to quantify systematic variations and associated uncertainties in source positioning with commonly used HDR afterloaders and ring applicators for the treatment of cervical carcinomas

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Awunor, O., E-mail: onuora.awunor@stees.nhs.uk [The Medical Physics Department, The James Cook University Hospital, Marton Road, Middlesbrough TS4 3BW, England (United Kingdom); Berger, D. [Department of Radiotherapy, General Hospital of Vienna, Vienna A-1090 (Austria); Kirisits, C. [Department of Radiotherapy, Comprehensive Cancer Center, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna A-1090 (Austria)

2015-08-15

Purpose: The reconstruction of radiation source position in the treatment planning system is a key part of the applicator reconstruction process in high dose rate (HDR) brachytherapy treatment of cervical carcinomas. The steep dose gradients, of as much as 12%/mm, associated with typical cervix treatments emphasize the importance of accurate and precise determination of source positions. However, a variety of methodologies with a range in associated measurement uncertainties, of up to ±2.5 mm, are currently employed by various centers to do this. In addition, a recent pilot study by Awunor et al. [“Direct reconstruction and associated uncertainties of {sup 192}Ir source dwell positions in ring applicators using gafchromic film in the treatment planning of HDR brachytherapy cervix patients,” Phys. Med. Biol. 58, 3207–3225 (2013)] reported source positional differences of up to 2.6 mm between ring sets of the same type and geometry. This suggests a need for a comprehensive study to assess and quantify systematic source position variations between commonly used ring applicators and HDR afterloaders across multiple centers. Methods: Eighty-six rings from 20 European brachytherapy centers were audited in the form of a postal audit with each center collecting the data independently. The data were collected by setting up the rings using a bespoke jig and irradiating gafchromic films at predetermined dwell positions using four afterloader types, MicroSelectron, Flexitron, GammaMed, and MultiSource, from three manufacturers, Nucletron, Varian, and Eckert & Ziegler BEBIG. Five different ring types in six sizes (Ø25–Ø35 mm) and two angles (45° and 60°) were used. Coordinates of irradiated positions relative to the ring center were determined and collated, and source position differences quantified by ring type, size, and angle. Results: The mean expanded measurement uncertainty (k = 2) along the direction of source travel was ±1.4 mm. The standard deviation

Uncertainty Analysis of the NASA Glenn 8x6 Supersonic Wind Tunnel

Science.gov (United States)

Stephens, Julia; Hubbard, Erin; Walter, Joel; McElroy, Tyler

2016-01-01

This paper presents methods and results of a detailed measurement uncertainty analysis that was performed for the 8- by 6-foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel located at the NASA Glenn Research Center. The statistical methods and engineering judgments used to estimate elemental uncertainties are described. The Monte Carlo method of propagating uncertainty was selected to determine the uncertainty of calculated variables of interest. A detailed description of the Monte Carlo method as applied for this analysis is provided. Detailed uncertainty results for the uncertainty in average free stream Mach number as well as other variables of interest are provided. All results are presented as random (variation in observed values about a true value), systematic (potential offset between observed and true value), and total (random and systematic combined) uncertainty. The largest sources contributing to uncertainty are determined and potential improvement opportunities for the facility are investigated.

The Significance of an Excess in a Counting Experiment: Assessing the Impact of Systematic Uncertainties and the Case with a Gaussian Background

Science.gov (United States)

Vianello, Giacomo

2018-05-01

Several experiments in high-energy physics and astrophysics can be treated as on/off measurements, where an observation potentially containing a new source or effect (“on” measurement) is contrasted with a background-only observation free of the effect (“off” measurement). In counting experiments, the significance of the new source or effect can be estimated with a widely used formula from Li & Ma, which assumes that both measurements are Poisson random variables. In this paper we study three other cases: (i) the ideal case where the background measurement has no uncertainty, which can be used to study the maximum sensitivity that an instrument can achieve, (ii) the case where the background estimate b in the off measurement has an additional systematic uncertainty, and (iii) the case where b is a Gaussian random variable instead of a Poisson random variable. The latter case applies when b comes from a model fitted on archival or ancillary data, or from the interpolation of a function fitted on data surrounding the candidate new source/effect. Practitioners typically use a formula that is only valid when b is large and when its uncertainty is very small, while we derive a general formula that can be applied in all regimes. We also develop simple methods that can be used to assess how much an estimate of significance is sensitive to systematic uncertainties on the efficiency or on the background. Examples of applications include the detection of short gamma-ray bursts and of new X-ray or γ-ray sources. All the techniques presented in this paper are made available in a Python code that is ready to use.

Treatment and reporting of uncertainties for environmental radiation measurements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Colle, R.

1980-01-01

Recommendations for a practical and uniform method for treating and reporting uncertainties in environmental radiation measurements data are presented. The method requires that each reported measurement result include the value, a total propagated random uncertainty expressed as the standard deviation, and a combined overall uncertainty. The uncertainty assessment should be based on as nearly a complete assessment as possible and should include every conceivable or likely source of inaccuracy in the result. Guidelines are given for estimating random and systematic uncertainty components, and for propagating and combining them to form an overall uncertainty

Procedure and results of a systematic comparative round robin estimation of the uncertainties of emission measurements in Germany and Switzerland during the summer and fall 1998

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Morkowski, J.S.

2000-08-01

During summer and fall 1998, 75 sample takers and 20 employees of laboratories of 26 institutes measuring emissions in Germany and Switzerland estimated the uncertainty of measuring results of 5 selected DVI-standard emission measuring methods. The applied method of systematic comparative estimation showed that the estimated total uncertainties U{sub T} of the investigated measuring methods range between 12% and 21%. The results of the round robin estimation for one of the methods (dust measuring 2066 Part 7) with U{sub T}=15.4% are equal to those of the system for simulation of emissions (HLfU Kassel) with 15.5%. This confirms the expectation of the initiators of the project that the systematic comparative estimation is useful for the characterization of test methods and hence for the validation of methods. (orig.)

Uncertainties, confidence ellipsoids and security polytopes in LSA

Science.gov (United States)

Grabe, Michael

1992-05-01

For a given error model, the uncertainties of and the couplings between parameters estimated by a least-squares adjustment (LSA) are formalized. The error model is restricted to normally distributed random errors and to systematic errors that remain constant during measurement, but whose magnitudes and signs are unknown. An outline of the associated, new formalism for estimating measurement uncertainties is sketched as regards its function as a measure of the consistency between theory and experiment. The couplings due to random errors lead to ellipsoids stemming from singular linear mappings of Hotelling's ellipsoids. Those introduced by systematic errors create convex polytopes, so-called security polytopes, which are singular linear mappings of hyperblocks caused by a ldworst-case treatment” of systematic errors.

Systematic assembly homogenization and local flux reconstruction for nodal method calculations of fast reactor power distributions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dorning, J.J.

1991-01-01

A simultaneous pin lattice cell and fuel bundle homogenization theory has been developed for use with nodal diffusion calculations of practical reactors. The theoretical development of the homogenization theory, which is based on multiple-scales asymptotic expansion methods carried out through fourth order in a small parameter, starts from the transport equation and systematically yields: a cell-homogenized bundled diffusion equation with self-consistent expressions for the cell-homogenized cross sections and diffusion tensor elements; and a bundle-homogenized global reactor diffusion equation with self-consistent expressions for the bundle-homogenized cross sections and diffusion tensor elements. The continuity of the angular flux at cell and bundle interfaces also systematically yields jump conditions for the scaler flux or so-called flux discontinuity factors on the cell and bundle interfaces in terms of the two adjacent cell or bundle eigenfunctions. The expressions required for the reconstruction of the angular flux or the 'de-homogenization' theory were obtained as an integral part of the development; hence the leading order transport theory angular flux is easily reconstructed throughout the reactor including the regions in the interior of the fuel bundles or computational nodes and in the interiors of the pin lattice cells. The theoretical development shows that the exact transport theory angular flux is obtained to first order from the whole-reactor nodal diffusion calculations, done using the homogenized nuclear data and discontinuity factors, is a product of three computed quantities: a ''cell shape function''; a ''bundle shape function''; and a ''global shape function''. 10 refs

PET image reconstruction: mean, variance, and optimal minimax criterion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Huafeng; Guo, Min; Gao, Fei; Shi, Pengcheng; Xue, Liying; Nie, Jing

2015-01-01

Given the noise nature of positron emission tomography (PET) measurements, it is critical to know the image quality and reliability as well as expected radioactivity map (mean image) for both qualitative interpretation and quantitative analysis. While existing efforts have often been devoted to providing only the reconstructed mean image, we present a unified framework for joint estimation of the mean and corresponding variance of the radioactivity map based on an efficient optimal min–max criterion. The proposed framework formulates the PET image reconstruction problem to be a transformation from system uncertainties to estimation errors, where the minimax criterion is adopted to minimize the estimation errors with possibly maximized system uncertainties. The estimation errors, in the form of a covariance matrix, express the measurement uncertainties in a complete way. The framework is then optimized by ∞-norm optimization and solved with the corresponding H ∞ filter. Unlike conventional statistical reconstruction algorithms, that rely on the statistical modeling methods of the measurement data or noise, the proposed joint estimation stands from the point of view of signal energies and can handle from imperfect statistical assumptions to even no a priori statistical assumptions. The performance and accuracy of reconstructed mean and variance images are validated using Monte Carlo simulations. Experiments on phantom scans with a small animal PET scanner and real patient scans are also conducted for assessment of clinical potential. (paper)

SYSTEMATIC UNCERTAINTIES IN THE SPECTROSCOPIC MEASUREMENTS OF NEUTRON STAR MASSES AND RADII FROM THERMONUCLEAR X-RAY BURSTS. III. ABSOLUTE FLUX CALIBRATION

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Güver, Tolga [Istanbul University, Science Faculty, Department of Astronomy and Space Sciences, Beyazıt, 34119, Istanbul (Turkey); Özel, Feryal; Psaltis, Dimitrios [Department of Astronomy, University of Arizona, 933 N. Cherry Avenue, Tucson, AZ 85721 (United States); Marshall, Herman [Center for Space Research, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139 (United States); Guainazzi, Matteo [European Space Astronomy Centre of ESA, P.O. Box 78, Villanueva de la Cañada, E-28691 Madrid (Spain); Díaz-Trigo, Maria [ESO, Karl-Schwarzschild-Strasse 2, D-85748 Garching bei München (Germany)

2016-09-20

Many techniques for measuring neutron star radii rely on absolute flux measurements in the X-rays. As a result, one of the fundamental uncertainties in these spectroscopic measurements arises from the absolute flux calibrations of the detectors being used. Using the stable X-ray burster, GS 1826–238, and its simultaneous observations by Chandra HETG/ACIS-S and RXTE /PCA as well as by XMM-Newton EPIC-pn and RXTE /PCA, we quantify the degree of uncertainty in the flux calibration by assessing the differences between the measured fluxes during bursts. We find that the RXTE /PCA and the Chandra gratings measurements agree with each other within their formal uncertainties, increasing our confidence in these flux measurements. In contrast, XMM-Newton EPIC-pn measures 14.0 ± 0.3% less flux than the RXTE /PCA. This is consistent with the previously reported discrepancy with the flux measurements of EPIC-pn, compared with EPIC MOS1, MOS2, and ACIS-S detectors. We also show that any intrinsic time-dependent systematic uncertainty that may exist in the calibration of the satellites has already been implicity taken into account in the neutron star radius measurements.

Oak Ridge Dose Reconstruction Project Summary Report; Reports of the Oak Ridge Dose Reconstruction, Vol. 7

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Widner, Thomas E.; email = twidner@jajoneses.com

1999-01-01

In the early 1990s, concern about the Oak Ridge Reservation's past releases of contaminants to the environment prompted Tennessee's public health officials to pursue an in-depth study of potential off-site health effects at Oak Ridge. This study, the Oak Ridge dose reconstruction, was supported by an agreement between the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the State of Tennessee, and was overseen by a 12-member panel of individuals appointed by Tennessee's Commissioner of Health. The panel requested that the principal investigator for the project prepare the following report, ''Oak Ridge Dose Reconstruction Project Summary Report,'' to serve the following purposes: (1) summarize in a single, less technical report, the methods and results of the various investigations that comprised the Phase II of the dose reconstruction; (2) describe the systematic searching of classified and unclassified historical records that was a vital component of the project; and (3) summarize the less detailed, screening-level assessments that were performed to evaluate the potential health significance of a number of materials, such a uranium, whose priority did not require a complete dose reconstruction effort. This report describes each major step of the dose reconstruction study: (1) the review of thousands of historical records to obtain information relating to past operations at each facility; (2) estimation of the quantity and timing of releases of radioiodines from X-10, of mercury from Y-12, of PCB's from all facilities, and of cesium-137 and other radionuclides from White Oak Creek; (3) evaluation of the routes taken by these contaminants through the environment to nearby populations; and (4) estimation of doses and health risks to exposed groups. Calculations found the highest excess cancer risks for a female born in 1952 who drank goat milk; the highest non-cancer health risk was for children in a farm family exposed to PCBs in and near East Fork Poplar Creek. More detailed

Achieving 95% probability level using best estimate codes and the code scaling, applicability and uncertainty (CSAU) [Code Scaling, Applicability and Uncertainty] methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilson, G.E.; Boyack, B.E.; Duffey, R.B.; Griffith, P.; Katsma, K.R.; Lellouche, G.S.; Rohatgi, U.S.; Wulff, W.; Zuber, N.

1988-01-01

Issue of a revised rule for loss of coolant accident/emergency core cooling system (LOCA/ECCS) analysis of light water reactors will allow the use of best estimate (BE) computer codes in safety analysis, with uncertainty analysis. This paper describes a systematic methodology, CSAU (Code Scaling, Applicability and Uncertainty), which will provide uncertainty bounds in a cost effective, auditable, rational and practical manner. 8 figs., 2 tabs

Protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis on the clinical outcomes and cost of deep inferior epigastric perforator (DIEP flap versus implants for breast reconstruction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ankur Khajuria

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Mastectomy in the context of breast malignancy can have a profoundly negative impact on a woman’s self-image, impairing personal, sexual and social relationships. The deep inferior epigastric perforator (DIEP flap and implants are the two commonest reconstructive modalities that can potentially overcome this psychological trauma. The comparative data on clinical outcomes and costs of the two modalities is limited. We aim to synthesise the current evidence on DIEP versus implants to establish which is the superior technique for breast reconstruction, in terms of clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness. Methods A comprehensive search will be undertaken of EMBASE, MEDLINE, Google Scholar, CENTRAL and Science citation index databases (1994 up to August 2017 to identify studies relevant for the review. Primary human studies evaluating clinical outcomes and cost of DIEP and implant-based reconstruction in context of breast malignancy will be included. Primary outcomes will be patient satisfaction and cosmetic outcome from patient-reported outcome measures (scores from validated tools, e.g. BREAST-Q tool, complications and cost-analysis. The secondary outcomes will be duration of surgery, number of surgical revisions, length of stay, availability of procedures and total number of clinic visits. Discussion This will be the first systematic review and meta-analysis in available literature comparing the clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness of DIEP and implants for breast reconstruction. This review is expected to guide worldwide clinical practice for breast reconstruction. Systematic review registration PROSPERO CRD42017072557 .

Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change : Letter

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J.W.; Supit, I.

2013-01-01

Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain1. Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate2. However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic

On the relationship between aerosol model uncertainty and radiative forcing uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Lindsay A; Reddington, Carly L; Carslaw, Kenneth S

2016-05-24

The largest uncertainty in the historical radiative forcing of climate is caused by the interaction of aerosols with clouds. Historical forcing is not a directly measurable quantity, so reliable assessments depend on the development of global models of aerosols and clouds that are well constrained by observations. However, there has been no systematic assessment of how reduction in the uncertainty of global aerosol models will feed through to the uncertainty in the predicted forcing. We use a global model perturbed parameter ensemble to show that tight observational constraint of aerosol concentrations in the model has a relatively small effect on the aerosol-related uncertainty in the calculated forcing between preindustrial and present-day periods. One factor is the low sensitivity of present-day aerosol to natural emissions that determine the preindustrial aerosol state. However, the major cause of the weak constraint is that the full uncertainty space of the model generates a large number of model variants that are equally acceptable compared to present-day aerosol observations. The narrow range of aerosol concentrations in the observationally constrained model gives the impression of low aerosol model uncertainty. However, these multiple "equifinal" models predict a wide range of forcings. To make progress, we need to develop a much deeper understanding of model uncertainty and ways to use observations to constrain it. Equifinality in the aerosol model means that tuning of a small number of model processes to achieve model-observation agreement could give a misleading impression of model robustness.

Simplified propagation of standard uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shull, A.H.

1997-01-01

An essential part of any measurement control program is adequate knowledge of the uncertainties of the measurement system standards. Only with an estimate of the standards'' uncertainties can one determine if the standard is adequate for its intended use or can one calculate the total uncertainty of the measurement process. Purchased standards usually have estimates of uncertainty on their certificates. However, when standards are prepared and characterized by a laboratory, variance propagation is required to estimate the uncertainty of the standard. Traditional variance propagation typically involves tedious use of partial derivatives, unfriendly software and the availability of statistical expertise. As a result, the uncertainty of prepared standards is often not determined or determined incorrectly. For situations meeting stated assumptions, easier shortcut methods of estimation are now available which eliminate the need for partial derivatives and require only a spreadsheet or calculator. A system of simplifying the calculations by dividing into subgroups of absolute and relative uncertainties is utilized. These methods also incorporate the International Standards Organization (ISO) concepts for combining systematic and random uncertainties as published in their Guide to the Expression of Measurement Uncertainty. Details of the simplified methods and examples of their use are included in the paper

Quantifying uncertainty in LCA-modelling of waste management systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Clavreul, Julie; Guyonnet, D.; Christensen, Thomas Højlund

2012-01-01

Uncertainty analysis in LCA studies has been subject to major progress over the last years. In the context of waste management, various methods have been implemented but a systematic method for uncertainty analysis of waste-LCA studies is lacking. The objective of this paper is (1) to present...... the sources of uncertainty specifically inherent to waste-LCA studies, (2) to select and apply several methods for uncertainty analysis and (3) to develop a general framework for quantitative uncertainty assessment of LCA of waste management systems. The suggested method is a sequence of four steps combining...

Evaluation of photonuclear reaction cross-sections using the reduction method for large systematic uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Varlamov, V.V.; Efimkin, N.G.; Ishkhanov, B.S.; Sapunenko, V.V.

1994-12-01

The authors describe a method based on the reduction method for the evaluation of photonuclear reaction cross-sections obtained under conditions where there are large systematic uncertainties (different instrumental functions, calibration and normalization errors). The evaluation method involves using the actual instrumental function (photon spectrum) of each individual experiment to reduce the data to a representation generated by an instrumental function of better quality. The objective is to find the most reasonably achievable monoenergetic representation of the information on the reaction cross-section derived from the results of various experiments and to take into account the calibration and normalization errors in these experiments. The method was used to obtain the evaluated total photoneutron reaction cross-section (γ,xn) for a large number of nuclei. Data obtained for 16 O and 208 Pb are presented. (author). 36 refs, 6 figs, 4 tabs

Aggregate Measures of Watershed Health from Reconstructed ...

Science.gov (United States)

Risk-based indices such as reliability, resilience, and vulnerability (R-R-V), have the potential to serve as watershed health assessment tools. Recent research has demonstrated the applicability of such indices for water quality (WQ) constituents such as total suspended solids and nutrients on an individual basis. However, the calculations can become tedious when time-series data for several WQ constituents have to be evaluated individually. Also, comparisons between locations with different sets of constituent data can prove difficult. In this study, data reconstruction using relevance vector machine algorithm was combined with dimensionality reduction via variational Bayesian noisy principal component analysis to reconstruct and condense sparse multidimensional WQ data sets into a single time series. The methodology allows incorporation of uncertainty in both the reconstruction and dimensionality-reduction steps. The R-R-V values were calculated using the aggregate time series at multiple locations within two Indiana watersheds. Results showed that uncertainty present in the reconstructed WQ data set propagates to the aggregate time series and subsequently to the aggregate R-R-V values as well. serving as motivating examples. Locations with different WQ constituents and different standards for impairment were successfully combined to provide aggregate measures of R-R-V values. Comparisons with individual constituent R-R-V values showed that v

Interpretation of the peak areas in gamma-ray spectra that have a large relative uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Korun, M.; Maver Modec, P.; Vodenik, B.

2012-01-01

Empirical evidence is provided that the areas of peaks having a relative uncertainty in excess of 30% are overestimated. This systematic influence is of a statistical nature and originates in way the peak-analyzing routine recognizes the small peaks. It is not easy to detect this influence since it is smaller than the peak-area uncertainty. However, the systematic influence can be revealed in repeated measurements under the same experimental conditions, e.g., in background measurements. To evaluate the systematic influence, background measurements were analyzed with the peak-analyzing procedure described by Korun et al. (2008). The magnitude of the influence depends on the relative uncertainty of the peak area and may amount, in the conditions used in the peak analysis, to a factor of 5 at relative uncertainties exceeding 60%. From the measurements, the probability for type-II errors, as a function of the relative uncertainty of the peak area, was extracted. This probability is near zero below an uncertainty of 30% and rises to 90% at uncertainties exceeding 50%. - Highlights: ► A systematic influence affecting small peak areas in gamma-ray spectra is described. ► The influence originates in the peak locating procedure, using a pre-determined sensitivity. ► The predetermined sensitivity makes peak areas with large uncertainties to be overestimated. ► The influence depends on the relative uncertainty of the number of counts in the peak. ► Corrections exceeding a factor of 3 are attained at peak area uncertainties exceeding 60%.

Climateprediction.com: Public Involvement, Multi-Million Member Ensembles and Systematic Uncertainty Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Stainforth, D. A.; Allen, M.; Kettleborough, J.; Collins, M.; Heaps, A.; Stott, P.; Wehner, M.

2001-12-01

The climateprediction.com project is preparing to carry out the first systematic uncertainty analysis of climate forecasts using large ensembles of GCM climate simulations. This will be done by involving schools, businesses and members of the public, and utilizing the novel technology of distributed computing. Each participant will be asked to run one member of the ensemble on their PC. The model used will initially be the UK Met Office's Unified Model (UM). It will be run under Windows and software will be provided to enable those involved to view their model output as it develops. The project will use this method to carry out large perturbed physics GCM ensembles and thereby analyse the uncertainty in the forecasts from such models. Each participant/ensemble member will therefore have a version of the UM in which certain aspects of the model physics have been perturbed from their default values. Of course the non-linear nature of the system means that it will be necessary to look not just at perturbations to individual parameters in specific schemes, such as the cloud parameterization, but also to the many combinations of perturbations. This rapidly leads to the need for very large, perhaps multi-million member ensembles, which could only be undertaken using the distributed computing methodology. The status of the project will be presented and the Windows client will be demonstrated. In addition, initial results will be presented from beta test runs using a demo release for Linux PCs and Alpha workstations. Although small by comparison to the whole project, these pilot results constitute a 20-50 member perturbed physics climate ensemble with results indicating how climate sensitivity can be substantially affected by individual parameter values in the cloud scheme.

Photoneutron cross sections for {sup 59}Co. Systematic uncertainties of data from various experiments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Varlamov, V.V. [Lomonosov Moscow State University, Skobeltsyn Institute of Nuclear Physics, Moscow (Russian Federation); Davydov, A.I. [Lomonosov Moscow State University, Physics Faculty, Moscow (Russian Federation); Ishkhanov, B.S. [Lomonosov Moscow State University, Skobeltsyn Institute of Nuclear Physics, Moscow (Russian Federation); Lomonosov Moscow State University, Physics Faculty, Moscow (Russian Federation)

2017-09-15

Data on partial photoneutron reaction cross sections (γ, 1n), (γ, 2n), and (γ, 3n) for {sup 59}Co obtained in two experiments carried out at Livermore (USA) were analyzed. The sources of radiation in both experiments were the monoenergetic photon beams from the annihilation in flight of relativistic positrons. The total yield was sorted by the neutron multiplicity, taking into account the difference in the neutron energy spectra for different multiplicity. The two quoted studies differ in the method of determining the neutron. Significant systematic disagreements between the results of the two experiments exist. They are considered to be caused by large systematic uncertainties in partial cross sections, since they do not satisfy physical criteria for reliability of the data. To obtain reliable cross sections of partial and total photoneutron reactions a new method combining experimental data and theoretical evaluation was used. It is based on the experimental neutron yield cross section which is rather independent of neutron multiplicity and the transitional neutron multiplicity functions of the combined photonucleon reaction model (CPNRM). The model transitional multiplicity functions were used for the decomposition of the neutron yield cross section into the contributions of partial reactions. The results of the new evaluation noticeably differ from the partial cross sections obtained in the two experimental studies are under discussion. (orig.)

Hierarchical Bayesian Model for Simultaneous EEG Source and Forward Model Reconstruction (SOFOMORE)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stahlhut, Carsten; Mørup, Morten; Winther, Ole

2009-01-01

In this paper we propose an approach to handle forward model uncertainty for EEG source reconstruction. A stochastic forward model is motivated by the many uncertain contributions that form the forward propagation model including the tissue conductivity distribution, the cortical surface, and ele......In this paper we propose an approach to handle forward model uncertainty for EEG source reconstruction. A stochastic forward model is motivated by the many uncertain contributions that form the forward propagation model including the tissue conductivity distribution, the cortical surface...

A retrospective dosimetry method and its uncertainty analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, L.; Jia, D.; Dai, G.

2000-01-01

The main aim of a radiation epidemiological study is to assess the risk of the population exposed to ionizing radiation. The actual work of the assessment may be very difficult because dose information about the population is often indirect and incomplete. It is very important, therefore, to find a way of estimating reasonable and reliable doses of the population by a retrospective method from limited information. In order to provide reasonable dose information for the cohort study of Chinese medical diagnostic X-ray workers, a retrospective dosimetry method was established. In China, a cohort study of more than 27,000 medical diagnostic X-ray workers, with 25,000 controls, has been carried out for about fifteen years in order to assess the risk to an occupationally exposed population. Obviously, a key to the success of the study is to obtain reliable and reasonable results of dose estimation by the dose reconstruction method. Before 1985, there was a lack of information regarding personal dose measured directly; however, we can obtain other indirect information. Examples are information about working loads from the documents of the hospitals, information about operational conditions of the workers of different statuses by a survey of occupational history, and the exposure levels of various working conditions by some simulation methods. The information for estimating organ dose can also be obtained by simulating experiments with a phantom. Based on the information mentioned above, a mathematical model and computerizing system for dose reconstruction of this occupational population was design and developed. Uncertainty analysis very important for dose reconstruction. The sources of uncertainty of our study are coming from two fields. One is coming from the mode of dose reconstruction. Another is coming from the survey of the occupational history. In the result reported, main results of the uncertainty will be presented. In order to control the uncertainty of the

Projected uranium measurement uncertainties for the Gas Centrifuge Enrichment Plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Younkin, J.M.

1979-02-01

An analysis was made of the uncertainties associated with the measurements of the declared uranium streams in the Portsmouth Gas Centrifuge Enrichment Plant (GCEP). The total uncertainty for the GCEP is projected to be from 54 to 108 kg 235 U/year out of a measured total of 200,000 kg 235 U/year. The systematic component of uncertainty of the UF 6 streams is the largest and the dominant contributor to the total uncertainty. A possible scheme for reducing the total uncertainty is given

Evaluation Procedures of Random Uncertainties in Theoretical Calculations of Cross Sections and Rate Coefficients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kokoouline, V.; Richardson, W.

2014-01-01

Uncertainties in theoretical calculations may include: • Systematic uncertainty: Due to applicability limits of the chosen model. • Random: Within a model, uncertainties of model parameters result in uncertainties of final results (such as cross sections). • If uncertainties of experimental and theoretical data are known, for the purpose of data evaluation (to produce recommended data), one should combine two data sets to produce the best guess data with the smallest possible uncertainty. In many situations, it is possible to assess the accuracy of theoretical calculations because theoretical models usually rely on parameters that are uncertain, but not completely random, i.e. the uncertainties of the parameters of the models are approximately known. If there are one or several such parameters with corresponding uncertainties, even if some or all parameters are correlated, the above approach gives a conceptually simple way to calculate uncertainties of final cross sections (uncertainty propagation). Numerically, the statistical approach to the uncertainty propagation could be computationally expensive. However, in situations, where uncertainties are considered to be as important as the actual cross sections (for data validation or benchmark calculations, for example), such a numerical effort is justified. Having data from different sources (say, from theory and experiment), a systematic statistical approach allows one to compare the data and produce “unbiased” evaluated data with improved uncertainties, if uncertainties of initial data from different sources are available. Without uncertainties, the data evaluation/validation becomes impossible. This is the reason why theoreticians should assess the accuracy of their calculations in one way or another. A statistical and systematic approach, similar to the described above, is preferable.

Sparse Image Reconstruction in Computed Tomography

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jørgensen, Jakob Sauer

In recent years, increased focus on the potentially harmful effects of x-ray computed tomography (CT) scans, such as radiation-induced cancer, has motivated research on new low-dose imaging techniques. Sparse image reconstruction methods, as studied for instance in the field of compressed sensing...... applications. This thesis takes a systematic approach toward establishing quantitative understanding of conditions for sparse reconstruction to work well in CT. A general framework for analyzing sparse reconstruction methods in CT is introduced and two sets of computational tools are proposed: 1...... contributions to a general set of computational characterization tools. Thus, the thesis contributions help advance sparse reconstruction methods toward routine use in...

A systematic review of functional outcome and quality of life following reconstruction of maxillofacial defects using vascularized free fibula flaps and dental rehabilitation reveals poor data quality

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wijbenga, Johan G.; Schepers, Rutger H.; Werker, Paul M. N.; Witjes, Max J. H.; Dijkstra, Pieter U.

Background: Reconstruction and oral rehabilitation of segmental maxillofacial defects resulting from ablative surgery is commonly achieved by osteocutaneous vascularized free fibula (VFFF) transplantation combined with implant-supported dental prostheses. We systematically reviewed the literature

Reconstruction of a ring applicator using CT imaging: impact of the reconstruction method and applicator orientation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hellebust, Taran Paulsen; Tanderup, Kari; Bergstrand, Eva Stabell; Knutsen, Bjoern Helge; Roeislien, Jo; Olsen, Dag Rune

2007-01-01

The purpose of this study is to investigate whether the method of applicator reconstruction and/or the applicator orientation influence the dose calculation to points around the applicator for brachytherapy of cervical cancer with CT-based treatment planning. A phantom, containing a fixed ring applicator set and six lead pellets representing dose points, was used. The phantom was CT scanned with the ring applicator at four different angles related to the image plane. In each scan the applicator was reconstructed by three methods: (1) direct reconstruction in each image (DR) (2) reconstruction in multiplanar reconstructed images (MPR) and (3) library plans, using pre-defined applicator geometry (LIB). The doses to the lead pellets were calculated. The relative standard deviation (SD) for all reconstruction methods was less than 3.7% in the dose points. The relative SD for the LIB method was significantly lower (p < 0.05) than for the DR and MPR methods for all but two points. All applicator orientations had similar dose calculation reproducibility. Using library plans for applicator reconstruction gives the most reproducible dose calculation. However, with restrictive guidelines for applicator reconstruction the uncertainties for all methods are low compared to other factors influencing the accuracy of brachytherapy

Uncertainty quantification in lattice QCD calculations for nuclear physics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Beane, Silas R. [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States); Detmold, William [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States); Orginos, Kostas [College of William and Mary, Williamsburg, VA (United States); Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (TJNAF), Newport News, VA (United States); Savage, Martin J. [Institute for Nuclear Theory, Seattle, WA (United States)

2015-02-05

The numerical technique of Lattice QCD holds the promise of connecting the nuclear forces, nuclei, the spectrum and structure of hadrons, and the properties of matter under extreme conditions with the underlying theory of the strong interactions, quantum chromodynamics. A distinguishing, and thus far unique, feature of this formulation is that all of the associated uncertainties, both statistical and systematic can, in principle, be systematically reduced to any desired precision with sufficient computational and human resources. As a result, we review the sources of uncertainty inherent in Lattice QCD calculations for nuclear physics, and discuss how each is quantified in current efforts.

Study of systematic errors in the luminosity measurement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arima, Tatsumi

1993-01-01

The experimental systematic error in the barrel region was estimated to be 0.44 %. This value is derived considering the systematic uncertainties from the dominant sources but does not include uncertainties which are being studied. In the end cap region, the study of shower behavior and clustering effect is under way in order to determine the angular resolution at the low angle edge of the Liquid Argon Calorimeter. We also expect that the systematic error in this region will be less than 1 %. The technical precision of theoretical uncertainty is better than 0.1 % comparing the Tobimatsu-Shimizu program and BABAMC modified by ALEPH. To estimate the physical uncertainty we will use the ALIBABA [9] which includes O(α 2 ) QED correction in leading-log approximation. (J.P.N.)

Study of systematic errors in the luminosity measurement

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Arima, Tatsumi [Tsukuba Univ., Ibaraki (Japan). Inst. of Applied Physics

1993-04-01

The experimental systematic error in the barrel region was estimated to be 0.44 %. This value is derived considering the systematic uncertainties from the dominant sources but does not include uncertainties which are being studied. In the end cap region, the study of shower behavior and clustering effect is under way in order to determine the angular resolution at the low angle edge of the Liquid Argon Calorimeter. We also expect that the systematic error in this region will be less than 1 %. The technical precision of theoretical uncertainty is better than 0.1 % comparing the Tobimatsu-Shimizu program and BABAMC modified by ALEPH. To estimate the physical uncertainty we will use the ALIBABA [9] which includes O({alpha}{sup 2}) QED correction in leading-log approximation. (J.P.N.).

Reviews and syntheses: Revisiting the boron systematics of aragonite and their application to coral calcification

Science.gov (United States)

DeCarlo, Thomas M.; Holcomb, Michael; McCulloch, Malcolm T.

2018-05-01

The isotopic and elemental systematics of boron in aragonitic coral skeletons have recently been developed as a proxy for the carbonate chemistry of the coral extracellular calcifying fluid. With knowledge of the boron isotopic fractionation in seawater and the B/Ca partition coefficient (KD) between aragonite and seawater, measurements of coral skeleton δ11B and B/Ca can potentially constrain the full carbonate system. Two sets of abiogenic aragonite precipitation experiments designed to quantify KD have recently made possible the application of this proxy system. However, while different KD formulations have been proposed, there has not yet been a comprehensive analysis that considers both experimental datasets and explores the implications for interpreting coral skeletons. Here, we evaluate four potential KD formulations: three previously presented in the literature and one newly developed. We assess how well each formulation reconstructs the known fluid carbonate chemistry from the abiogenic experiments, and we evaluate the implications for deriving the carbonate chemistry of coral calcifying fluid. Three of the KD formulations performed similarly when applied to abiogenic aragonites precipitated from seawater and to coral skeletons. Critically, we find that some uncertainty remains in understanding the mechanism of boron elemental partitioning between aragonite and seawater, and addressing this question should be a target of additional abiogenic precipitation experiments. Despite this, boron systematics can already be applied to quantify the coral calcifying fluid carbonate system, although uncertainties associated with the proxy system should be carefully considered for each application. Finally, we present a user-friendly computer code that calculates coral calcifying fluid carbonate chemistry, including propagation of uncertainties, given inputs of boron systematics measured in coral skeleton.

LensEnt2: Maximum-entropy weak lens reconstruction

Science.gov (United States)

Marshall, P. J.; Hobson, M. P.; Gull, S. F.; Bridle, S. L.

2013-08-01

LensEnt2 is a maximum entropy reconstructor of weak lensing mass maps. The method takes each galaxy shape as an independent estimator of the reduced shear field and incorporates an intrinsic smoothness, determined by Bayesian methods, into the reconstruction. The uncertainties from both the intrinsic distribution of galaxy shapes and galaxy shape estimation are carried through to the final mass reconstruction, and the mass within arbitrarily shaped apertures are calculated with corresponding uncertainties. The input is a galaxy ellipticity catalog with each measured galaxy shape treated as a noisy tracer of the reduced shear field, which is inferred on a fine pixel grid assuming positivity, and smoothness on scales of w arcsec where w is an input parameter. The ICF width w can be chosen by computing the evidence for it.

Uncertainty quantification for proton–proton fusion in chiral effective field theory

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Acharya, B. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996 (United States); Carlsson, B.D. [Department of Physics, Chalmers University of Technology, SE-412 96 Göteborg (Sweden); Ekström, A. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996 (United States); Physics Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 (United States); Department of Physics, Chalmers University of Technology, SE-412 96 Göteborg (Sweden); Forssén, C. [Department of Physics, Chalmers University of Technology, SE-412 96 Göteborg (Sweden); Platter, L., E-mail: lplatter@utk.edu [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996 (United States); Physics Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 (United States)

2016-09-10

We compute the S-factor of the proton–proton (pp) fusion reaction using chiral effective field theory (χEFT) up to next-to-next-to-leading order (NNLO) and perform a rigorous uncertainty analysis of the results. We quantify the uncertainties due to (i) the computational method used to compute the pp cross section in momentum space, (ii) the statistical uncertainties in the low-energy coupling constants of χEFT, (iii) the systematic uncertainty due to the χEFT cutoff, and (iv) systematic variations in the database used to calibrate the nucleon–nucleon interaction. We also examine the robustness of the polynomial extrapolation procedure, which is commonly used to extract the threshold S-factor and its energy-derivatives. By performing a statistical analysis of the polynomial fit of the energy-dependent S-factor at several different energy intervals, we eliminate a systematic uncertainty that can arise from the choice of the fit interval in our calculations. In addition, we explore the statistical correlations between the S-factor and few-nucleon observables such as the binding energies and point-proton radii of {sup 2,3}H and {sup 3}He as well as the D-state probability and quadrupole moment of {sup 2}H, and the β-decay of {sup 3}H. We find that, with the state-of-the-art optimization of the nuclear Hamiltonian, the statistical uncertainty in the threshold S-factor cannot be reduced beyond 0.7%.

An integrative systematic framework helps to reconstruct skeletal evolution of glass sponges (Porifera, Hexactinellida).

Science.gov (United States)

Dohrmann, Martin; Kelley, Christopher; Kelly, Michelle; Pisera, Andrzej; Hooper, John N A; Reiswig, Henry M

2017-01-01

Glass sponges (Class Hexactinellida) are important components of deep-sea ecosystems and are of interest from geological and materials science perspectives. The reconstruction of their phylogeny with molecular data has only recently begun and shows a better agreement with morphology-based systematics than is typical for other sponge groups, likely because of a greater number of informative morphological characters. However, inconsistencies remain that have far-reaching implications for hypotheses about the evolution of their major skeletal construction types (body plans). Furthermore, less than half of all described extant genera have been sampled for molecular systematics, and several taxa important for understanding skeletal evolution are still missing. Increased taxon sampling for molecular phylogenetics of this group is therefore urgently needed. However, due to their remote habitat and often poorly preserved museum material, sequencing all 126 currently recognized extant genera will be difficult to achieve. Utilizing morphological data to incorporate unsequenced taxa into an integrative systematics framework therefore holds great promise, but it is unclear which methodological approach best suits this task. Here, we increase the taxon sampling of four previously established molecular markers (18S, 28S, and 16S ribosomal DNA, as well as cytochrome oxidase subunit I) by 12 genera, for the first time including representatives of the order Aulocalycoida and the type genus of Dactylocalycidae, taxa that are key to understanding hexactinellid body plan evolution. Phylogenetic analyses suggest that Aulocalycoida is diphyletic and provide further support for the paraphyly of order Hexactinosida; hence these orders are abolished from the Linnean classification. We further assembled morphological character matrices to integrate so far unsequenced genera into phylogenetic analyses in maximum parsimony (MP), maximum likelihood (ML), Bayesian, and morphology-based binning

Diagnosing and prioritizing uncertainties according to their relevance for policy: The case of transgene silencing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Krayer von Krauss, M.P.; Kaiser, M.; Almaas, V.; van der Sluijs, J.P.; Kloprogge, P.

2008-01-01

Uncertainty often becomes problematic when science is used to support decision making in the policy process. Scientists can contribute to a more constructive approach to uncertainty by making their uncertainties transparent. In this article, an approach to systematic uncertainty diagnosis is

Uncertainty quantification and error analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Higdon, Dave M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Anderson, Mark C [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Habib, Salman [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Klein, Richard [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Berliner, Mark [OHIO STATE UNIV.; Covey, Curt [LLNL; Ghattas, Omar [UNIV OF TEXAS; Graziani, Carlo [UNIV OF CHICAGO; Seager, Mark [LLNL; Sefcik, Joseph [LLNL; Stark, Philip [UC/BERKELEY; Stewart, James [SNL

2010-01-01

UQ studies all sources of error and uncertainty, including: systematic and stochastic measurement error; ignorance; limitations of theoretical models; limitations of numerical representations of those models; limitations on the accuracy and reliability of computations, approximations, and algorithms; and human error. A more precise definition for UQ is suggested below.

Uncertainty quantification tools for multiphase gas-solid flow simulations using MFIX

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fox, Rodney O. [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States); Passalacqua, Alberto [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States)

2016-02-01

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) has been widely studied and used in the scientific community and in the industry. Various models were proposed to solve problems in different areas. However, all models deviate from reality. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) process evaluates the overall uncertainties associated with the prediction of quantities of interest. In particular it studies the propagation of input uncertainties to the outputs of the models so that confidence intervals can be provided for the simulation results. In the present work, a non-intrusive quadrature-based uncertainty quantification (QBUQ) approach is proposed. The probability distribution function (PDF) of the system response can be then reconstructed using extended quadrature method of moments (EQMOM) and extended conditional quadrature method of moments (ECQMOM). The report first explains the theory of QBUQ approach, including methods to generate samples for problems with single or multiple uncertain input parameters, low order statistics, and required number of samples. Then methods for univariate PDF reconstruction (EQMOM) and multivariate PDF reconstruction (ECQMOM) are explained. The implementation of QBUQ approach into the open-source CFD code MFIX is discussed next. At last, QBUQ approach is demonstrated in several applications. The method is first applied to two examples: a developing flow in a channel with uncertain viscosity, and an oblique shock problem with uncertain upstream Mach number. The error in the prediction of the moment response is studied as a function of the number of samples, and the accuracy of the moments required to reconstruct the PDF of the system response is discussed. The QBUQ approach is then demonstrated by considering a bubbling fluidized bed as example application. The mean particle size is assumed to be the uncertain input parameter. The system is simulated with a standard two-fluid model with kinetic theory closures for the particulate phase implemented into

Characterizing spatial uncertainty when integrating social data in conservation planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Lechner, A M; Raymond, C M; Adams, V M; Polyakov, M; Gordon, A; Rhodes, J R; Mills, M; Stein, A; Ives, C D; Lefroy, E C

2014-12-01

Recent conservation planning studies have presented approaches for integrating spatially referenced social (SRS) data with a view to improving the feasibility of conservation action. We reviewed the growing conservation literature on SRS data, focusing on elicited or stated preferences derived through social survey methods such as choice experiments and public participation geographic information systems. Elicited SRS data includes the spatial distribution of willingness to sell, willingness to pay, willingness to act, and assessments of social and cultural values. We developed a typology for assessing elicited SRS data uncertainty which describes how social survey uncertainty propagates when projected spatially and the importance of accounting for spatial uncertainty such as scale effects and data quality. These uncertainties will propagate when elicited SRS data is integrated with biophysical data for conservation planning and may have important consequences for assessing the feasibility of conservation actions. To explore this issue further, we conducted a systematic review of the elicited SRS data literature. We found that social survey uncertainty was commonly tested for, but that these uncertainties were ignored when projected spatially. Based on these results we developed a framework which will help researchers and practitioners estimate social survey uncertainty and use these quantitative estimates to systematically address uncertainty within an analysis. This is important when using SRS data in conservation applications because decisions need to be made irrespective of data quality and well characterized uncertainty can be incorporated into decision theoretic approaches. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Awakening the BALROG: BAyesian Location Reconstruction Of GRBs

Science.gov (United States)

Burgess, J. Michael; Yu, Hoi-Fung; Greiner, Jochen; Mortlock, Daniel J.

2018-05-01

The accurate spatial location of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) is crucial for both accurately characterizing their spectra and follow-up observations by other instruments. The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor (GBM) has the largest field of view for detecting GRBs as it views the entire unocculted sky, but as a non-imaging instrument it relies on the relative count rates observed in each of its 14 detectors to localize transients. Improving its ability to accurately locate GRBs and other transients is vital to the paradigm of multimessenger astronomy, including the electromagnetic follow-up of gravitational wave signals. Here we present the BAyesian Location Reconstruction Of GRBs (BALROG) method for localizing and characterizing GBM transients. Our approach eliminates the systematics of previous approaches by simultaneously fitting for the location and spectrum of a source. It also correctly incorporates the uncertainties in the location of a transient into the spectral parameters and produces reliable positional uncertainties for both well-localized sources and those for which the GBM data cannot effectively constrain the position. While computationally expensive, BALROG can be implemented to enable quick follow-up of all GBM transient signals. Also, we identify possible response problems that require attention and caution when using standard, public GBM detector response matrices. Finally, we examine the effects of including the uncertainty in location on the spectral parameters of GRB 080916C. We find that spectral parameters change and no extra components are required when these effects are included in contrast to when we use a fixed location. This finding has the potential to alter both the GRB spectral catalogues and the reported spectral composition of some well-known GRBs.

Investigations on uncertainties in patient positioning for prostate treatment with EPID

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bakai, A.; Nuesslin, F.; Paulsen, F.; Plasswilm, L.; Bamberg, M.

2002-01-01

Background: Conformal radiotherapy techniques as used in prostate treatment allow to spare normal tissue by conforming the radiation fields to the shape of the planning target volume (PTV). To be able to fully utilize the advantages of these techniques correct patient positioning is an important prerequisite. This study employing an electronic portal imaging device (EPID) investigated the positioning uncertainties that occur in the pelvic region for different patient positioning devices. Patients and Methods: 15 patients with prostate cancer were irradiated with or without rectal balloon/pelvic mask at a linear accelerator with multileaf collimator (MLC). For each patient multiple portal images were taken from different directions and compared to the digitally reconstructed radiographs (DRRs) of the treatment planning system and to simulation films (Table 1, Figure 1). Results: In spite of different positioning devices, all patients showed comparable total positioning uncertainties of 4.0 mm (lateral), 4.5 mm (cranio-caudal) and 1.7 mm (dorso-ventral). The lateral positioning error was reduced for the pelvic mask patients while the cranio-caudal error increased (Table 2, Figure 2). A systematic and a random component sum up to the total positioning error, and a good estimate of the magnitudes of the two is possible from six to eight portal images (Figure 3). Conclusions: With a small number of portal images it is possible to find out the systematic and random positioning error of a patient. Knowledge of the random error can be used to resize the treatment margin which is clinically relevant since this error differs greatly for different patients (Figure 4). Image analysis with EPID is convenient, yet has some problems. For example, one only gets indirect information on the movement of the ventral rectum wall. The successful operation of positioning devices, although, needs further improvement - especially if one focuses on IMRT. (orig.) [de

Oak Ridge Dose Reconstruction Project Summary Report; Reports of the Oak Ridge Dose Reconstruction, Vol. 7

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Thomas E. Widner; et. al.

1999-07-01

In the early 1990s, concern about the Oak Ridge Reservation's past releases of contaminants to the environment prompted Tennessee's public health officials to pursue an in-depth study of potential off-site health effects at Oak Ridge. This study, the Oak Ridge dose reconstruction, was supported by an agreement between the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the State of Tennessee, and was overseen by a 12-member panel of individuals appointed by Tennessee's Commissioner of Health. The panel requested that the principal investigator for the project prepare the following report, ''Oak Ridge Dose Reconstruction Project Summary Report,'' to serve the following purposes: (1) summarize in a single, less technical report, the methods and results of the various investigations that comprised the Phase II of the dose reconstruction; (2) describe the systematic searching of classified and unclassified historical records that was a vital component of the project; and (3) summarize the less detailed, screening-level assessments that were performed to evaluate the potential health significance of a number of materials, such a uranium, whose priority did not require a complete dose reconstruction effort. This report describes each major step of the dose reconstruction study: (1) the review of thousands of historical records to obtain information relating to past operations at each facility; (2) estimation of the quantity and timing of releases of radioiodines from X-10, of mercury from Y-12, of PCB's from all facilities, and of cesium-137 and other radionuclides from White Oak Creek; (3) evaluation of the routes taken by these contaminants through the environment to nearby populations; and (4) estimation of doses and health risks to exposed groups. Calculations found the highest excess cancer risks for a female born in 1952 who drank goat milk; the highest non-cancer health risk was for children in a farm family exposed to PCBs in and near

A sliding mode observer for hemodynamic characterization under modeling uncertainties

KAUST Repository

Zayane, Chadia; Laleg-Kirati, Taous-Meriem

2014-01-01

This paper addresses the case of physiological states reconstruction in a small region of the brain under modeling uncertainties. The misunderstood coupling between the cerebral blood volume and the oxygen extraction fraction has lead to a partial

Robust Sensor Faults Reconstruction for a Class of Uncertain Linear Systems Using a Sliding Mode Observer: An LMI Approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iskander, Boulaabi; Faycal, Ben Hmida; Moncef, Gossa; Anis, Sellami

2009-01-01

This paper presents a design method of a Sliding Mode Observer (SMO) for robust sensor faults reconstruction of systems with matched uncertainty. This class of uncertainty requires a known upper bound. The basic idea is to use the H ∞ concept to design the observer, which minimizes the effect of the uncertainty on the reconstruction of the sensor faults. Specifically, we applied the equivalent output error injection concept from previous work in Fault Detection and Isolation (FDI) scheme. Then, these two problems of design and reconstruction can be expressed and numerically formulate via Linear Matrix Inequalities (LMIs) optimization. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the validity and the applicability of the proposed approach.

Energy reconstruction in the long-baseline neutrino experiment.

Science.gov (United States)

Mosel, U; Lalakulich, O; Gallmeister, K

2014-04-18

The Long-Baseline Neutrino Experiment aims at measuring fundamental physical parameters to high precision and exploring physics beyond the standard model. Nuclear targets introduce complications towards that aim. We investigate the uncertainties in the energy reconstruction, based on quasielastic scattering relations, due to nuclear effects. The reconstructed event distributions as a function of energy tend to be smeared out and shifted by several 100 MeV in their oscillatory structure if standard event selection is used. We show that a more restrictive experimental event selection offers the possibility to reach the accuracy needed for a determination of the mass ordering and the CP-violating phase. Quasielastic-based energy reconstruction could thus be a viable alternative to the calorimetric reconstruction also at higher energies.

Haplotype reconstruction error as a classical misclassification problem: introducing sensitivity and specificity as error measures.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Claudia Lamina

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Statistically reconstructing haplotypes from single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP genotypes, can lead to falsely classified haplotypes. This can be an issue when interpreting haplotype association results or when selecting subjects with certain haplotypes for subsequent functional studies. It was our aim to quantify haplotype reconstruction error and to provide tools for it. METHODS AND RESULTS: By numerous simulation scenarios, we systematically investigated several error measures, including discrepancy, error rate, and R(2, and introduced the sensitivity and specificity to this context. We exemplified several measures in the KORA study, a large population-based study from Southern Germany. We find that the specificity is slightly reduced only for common haplotypes, while the sensitivity was decreased for some, but not all rare haplotypes. The overall error rate was generally increasing with increasing number of loci, increasing minor allele frequency of SNPs, decreasing correlation between the alleles and increasing ambiguity. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that, with the analytical approach presented here, haplotype-specific error measures can be computed to gain insight into the haplotype uncertainty. This method provides the information, if a specific risk haplotype can be expected to be reconstructed with rather no or high misclassification and thus on the magnitude of expected bias in association estimates. We also illustrate that sensitivity and specificity separate two dimensions of the haplotype reconstruction error, which completely describe the misclassification matrix and thus provide the prerequisite for methods accounting for misclassification.

Dynamic dual-tracer PET reconstruction.

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Fei; Liu, Huafeng; Jian, Yiqiang; Shi, Pengcheng

2009-01-01

Although of important medical implications, simultaneous dual-tracer positron emission tomography reconstruction remains a challenging problem, primarily because the photon measurements from dual tracers are overlapped. In this paper, we propose a simultaneous dynamic dual-tracer reconstruction of tissue activity maps based on guidance from tracer kinetics. The dual-tracer reconstruction problem is formulated in a state-space representation, where parallel compartment models serve as continuous-time system equation describing the tracer kinetic processes of dual tracers, and the imaging data is expressed as discrete sampling of the system states in measurement equation. The image reconstruction problem has therefore become a state estimation problem in a continuous-discrete hybrid paradigm, and H infinity filtering is adopted as the estimation strategy. As H infinity filtering makes no assumptions on the system and measurement statistics, robust reconstruction results can be obtained for the dual-tracer PET imaging system where the statistical properties of measurement data and system uncertainty are not available a priori, even when there are disturbances in the kinetic parameters. Experimental results on digital phantoms, Monte Carlo simulations and physical phantoms have demonstrated the superior performance.

Uncertainty relation and simultaneous measurements in quantum theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Busch, P.

1982-01-01

In this thesis the question for the interpretation of the uncertainty relation is picked up, and a program for the justification of its individualistic interpretation is formulated. By means of quantum mechanical models for the position and momentum measurement a justification of the interpretaton has been tried by reconstruction of the origin of the uncertainties from the conditions of the measuring devices and the determination of the relation of the measured results to the object. By means of a model of the common measurement it could be shown how the uncertainty relation results from the not eliminable mutual disturbance of the devices and the uncertainty relation for the measuring system. So finally the commutation relation is conclusive. For the illustration the split experiment is discussed, first according to Heisenberg with fixed split, then for the quantum mechanical, movable split (Bohr-Einstein). (orig./HSI) [de

Evaluation of Data with Systematic Errors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Froehner, F. H.

2003-01-01

Application-oriented evaluated nuclear data libraries such as ENDF and JEFF contain not only recommended values but also uncertainty information in the form of 'covariance' or 'error files'. These can neither be constructed nor utilized properly without a thorough understanding of uncertainties and correlations. It is shown how incomplete information about errors is described by multivariate probability distributions or, more summarily, by covariance matrices, and how correlations are caused by incompletely known common errors. Parameter estimation for the practically most important case of the Gaussian distribution with common errors is developed in close analogy to the more familiar case without. The formalism shows that, contrary to widespread belief, common ('systematic') and uncorrelated ('random' or 'statistical') errors are to be added in quadrature. It also shows explicitly that repetition of a measurement reduces mainly the statistical uncertainties but not the systematic ones. While statistical uncertainties are readily estimated from the scatter of repeatedly measured data, systematic uncertainties can only be inferred from prior information about common errors and their propagation. The optimal way to handle error-affected auxiliary quantities ('nuisance parameters') in data fitting and parameter estimation is to adjust them on the same footing as the parameters of interest and to integrate (marginalize) them out of the joint posterior distribution afterward

Instrumentation-related uncertainty of reflectance and transmittance measurements with a two-channel spectrophotometer.

Science.gov (United States)

Peest, Christian; Schinke, Carsten; Brendel, Rolf; Schmidt, Jan; Bothe, Karsten

2017-01-01

Spectrophotometers are operated in numerous fields of science and industry for a variety of applications. In order to provide confidence for the measured data, analyzing the associated uncertainty is valuable. However, the uncertainty of the measurement results is often unknown or reduced to sample-related contributions. In this paper, we describe our approach for the systematic determination of the measurement uncertainty of the commercially available two-channel spectrophotometer Agilent Cary 5000 in accordance with the Guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurements. We focus on the instrumentation-related uncertainty contributions rather than the specific application and thus outline a general procedure which can be adapted for other instruments. Moreover, we discover a systematic signal deviation due to the inertia of the measurement amplifier and develop and apply a correction procedure. Thereby we increase the usable dynamic range of the instrument by more than one order of magnitude. We present methods for the quantification of the uncertainty contributions and combine them into an uncertainty budget for the device.

Alloplastic mandibular reconstruction: a systematic review and meta-analysis of the current century case series.

Science.gov (United States)

Sadr-Eshkevari, Pooyan; Rashad, Ashkan; Vahdati, Seyed Aliakbar; Garajei, Ata; Bohluli, Behnam; Maurer, Peter

2013-09-01

Alloplastic mandibular reconstruction remains insufficiently predictable, with no systematic reviews to assess its scope and limitations. The PubMed, CINAHL, EMBASE, and Web of Science databases were searched for English study reports, published in the current century, of mere alloplastic surgical reconstruction of mandibular ablative defects. In 14 articles, there were 944 patients, with a median age of 58.7 years (interquartile range, 53.2 to 62 years); 58.7 percent (interquartile range, 66.7 to 78.6 percent) were male. Cases of squamous cell carcinoma per study constituted 93.5 percent (interquartile range, 81.5 to 100 percent). Defects were mostly lateral (Boyd classification) (60.5 percent; interquartile range, 56.2 to 62 percent) and received mostly conventional bridging plates (in 64.3 percent of the studies) and pedicled flaps (45.3 percent; interquartile range, 37.1 to 58.3 percent); 60.7 percent (interquartile range, 53.5 to 58.8 percent) received adjuvant therapy. At 32-month follow-up, the complication and failure rates were 40.1 percent (interquartile range, 26.7 to 58.6 percent) and 30.8 percent (interquartile range, 11.7 to 48.1 percent), respectively. The overall survival rate was 55 percent (interquartile range, 27.8 to 74 percent). Radiotherapy seemed to be a relative risk factor for complications (1.387; p = 0.014) and plate loss (1.585; p = 0.006). Crossing the midline seemed to be a relative risk factor for plate exposure (1.533; p = 0.000) and overall complications (1.385; p = 0.002). The results should be generalized cautiously. Alloplastic reconstructive surgery faces a remarkable lack of evidence. Relatively high complication and failure rates are areas of further concern.

Tau reconstruction, energy calibration and identification at ATLAS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Trottier-Mcdonald, Michel

2012-01-01

Tau leptons play a central role in the LHC physics programme, in particular as an important signature in many Higgs boson and supersymmetry searches. They are further used in Standard Model electroweak measurements, as well as detector-related studies like the determination of the missing transverse energy scale. Copious backgrounds from QCD processes call for both efficient identification of hadronically decaying tau leptons, as well as large suppression of fake candidates. A solid understanding of the combined performance of the calorimeter and tracking detectors is also required. We present the current status of the tau reconstruction, energy calibration and identification with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Identification efficiencies are measured in W →τν events in data and compared with predictions from Monte Carlo simulations, whereas the misidentification probabilities of QCD jets and electrons are determined from various jet-enriched data samples and from Z → ee events, respectively. The tau energy scale calibration is described and systematic uncertainties on both energy scale and identification efficiencies discussed. (author)

Avoiding climate change uncertainties in Strategic Environmental Assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Larsen, Sanne Vammen, E-mail: sannevl@plan.aau.dk [The Danish Centre for Environmental Assessment, Aalborg University-Copenhagen, A.C. Meyers Vænge 15, 2450 København SV (Denmark); Kørnøv, Lone, E-mail: lonek@plan.aau.dk [The Danish Centre for Environmental Assessment, Aalborg University, Skibbrogade 5, 1. Sal, 9000 Aalborg (Denmark); Driscoll, Patrick, E-mail: patrick@plan.aau.dk [The Danish Centre for Environmental Assessment, Aalborg University-Copenhagen, A.C. Meyers Vænge 15, 2450 København SV (Denmark)

2013-11-15

This article is concerned with how Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) practice handles climate change uncertainties within the Danish planning system. First, a hypothetical model is set up for how uncertainty is handled and not handled in decision-making. The model incorporates the strategies ‘reduction’ and ‘resilience’, ‘denying’, ‘ignoring’ and ‘postponing’. Second, 151 Danish SEAs are analysed with a focus on the extent to which climate change uncertainties are acknowledged and presented, and the empirical findings are discussed in relation to the model. The findings indicate that despite incentives to do so, climate change uncertainties were systematically avoided or downplayed in all but 5 of the 151 SEAs that were reviewed. Finally, two possible explanatory mechanisms are proposed to explain this: conflict avoidance and a need to quantify uncertainty.

Avoiding climate change uncertainties in Strategic Environmental Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Larsen, Sanne Vammen; Kørnøv, Lone; Driscoll, Patrick

2013-01-01

This article is concerned with how Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) practice handles climate change uncertainties within the Danish planning system. First, a hypothetical model is set up for how uncertainty is handled and not handled in decision-making. The model incorporates the strategies ‘reduction’ and ‘resilience’, ‘denying’, ‘ignoring’ and ‘postponing’. Second, 151 Danish SEAs are analysed with a focus on the extent to which climate change uncertainties are acknowledged and presented, and the empirical findings are discussed in relation to the model. The findings indicate that despite incentives to do so, climate change uncertainties were systematically avoided or downplayed in all but 5 of the 151 SEAs that were reviewed. Finally, two possible explanatory mechanisms are proposed to explain this: conflict avoidance and a need to quantify uncertainty

The Frequency of AVN Following Reconstructive Hip Surgery in Children With Cerebral Palsy: A Systematic Review.

Science.gov (United States)

Hesketh, Kim; Leveille, Lise; Mulpuri, Kishore

2016-03-01

Children with cerebral palsy (CP) undergoing reconstructive hip surgery are at risk for developing avascular necrosis (AVN). The purpose of this systematic review was to investigate the reported frequency of AVN, the amount and quality of literature available, and possibly identity risk factors for developing AVN following reconstructive surgery for hip displacement in children with CP. We performed a review of the literature using EMBASE and MEDLINE databases. Studies investigating the outcome of reconstructive hip surgery in patients with CP that identified the presence or absence of AVN were included. Study quality was assessed using the Methodological Index for Non-Randomized Studies and the Oxford Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine scale. Three hundred and ninety-nine articles were identified using our search strategy. Twenty-nine studies were included for data extraction after full-text review. The frequency of AVN ranged from 0% to 46% with an overall rate across studies of 7.5%. Presence of AVN was the primary outcome in 2 studies. The frequency of AVN in these studies was significantly higher than other studies at 37% and 46%. No statistically significant associations were found between age at surgery, severity of hip subluxation, length of follow-up, or type of surgery (combined varus derotation osteotomy and pelvic osteotomy vs. varus derotation osteotomy alone), and the rate of AVN. The majority of studies did not comment on methods used for determining diagnosis or severity of AVN and clinical significance was not well documented. Children with CP undergoing reconstructive hip surgery are at risk of developing AVN. Frequency and severity of this complication is poorly documented in the literature. On the basis of current evidence no significant risk factors were identified; however, it is not possible to draw firm conclusions about them. Incidence of AVN was higher in studies in which AVN was a primary outcome suggesting that the true frequency of AVN

Quantifying remarks to the question of uncertainties of the 'general dose assessment fundamentals'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brenk, H.D.; Vogt, K.J.

1982-12-01

Dose prediction models are always subject to uncertainties due to a number of factors including deficiencies in the model structure and uncertainties of the model input parameter values. In lieu of validation experiments the evaluation of these uncertainties is restricted to scientific judgement. Several attempts have been made in the literature to evaluate the uncertainties of the current dose assessment models resulting from uncertainties of the model input parameter values using stochastic approaches. Less attention, however, has been paid to potential sources of systematic over- and underestimations of the predicted doses due to deficiencies in the model structure. The present study addresses this aspect with regard to dose assessment models currently used for regulatory purposes. The influence of a number of basic simplifications and conservative assumptions has been investigated. Our systematic approach is exemplified by a comparison of doses evaluated on the basis of the regulatory guide model and a more realistic model respectively. This is done for 3 critical exposure pathways. As a result of this comparison it can be concluded that the currently used regularoty-type models include significant safety factors resulting in a systematic overprediction of dose to man up to two orders of magnitude. For this reason there are some indications that these models usually more than compensate the bulk of the stochastic uncertainties caused by the variability of the input parameter values. (orig.) [de

Wave-optics uncertainty propagation and regression-based bias model in GNSS radio occultation bending angle retrievals

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. E. Gorbunov

2018-01-01

Full Text Available A new reference occultation processing system (rOPS will include a Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS radio occultation (RO retrieval chain with integrated uncertainty propagation. In this paper, we focus on wave-optics bending angle (BA retrieval in the lower troposphere and introduce (1 an empirically estimated boundary layer bias (BLB model then employed to reduce the systematic uncertainty of excess phases and bending angles in about the lowest 2 km of the troposphere and (2 the estimation of (residual systematic uncertainties and their propagation together with random uncertainties from excess phase to bending angle profiles. Our BLB model describes the estimated bias of the excess phase transferred from the estimated bias of the bending angle, for which the model is built, informed by analyzing refractivity fluctuation statistics shown to induce such biases. The model is derived from regression analysis using a large ensemble of Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC RO observations and concurrent European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF analysis fields. It is formulated in terms of predictors and adaptive functions (powers and cross products of predictors, where we use six main predictors derived from observations: impact altitude, latitude, bending angle and its standard deviation, canonical transform (CT amplitude, and its fluctuation index. Based on an ensemble of test days, independent of the days of data used for the regression analysis to establish the BLB model, we find the model very effective for bias reduction and capable of reducing bending angle and corresponding refractivity biases by about a factor of 5. The estimated residual systematic uncertainty, after the BLB profile subtraction, is lower bounded by the uncertainty from the (indirect use of ECMWF analysis fields but is significantly lower than the systematic uncertainty without BLB correction. The

Wave-optics uncertainty propagation and regression-based bias model in GNSS radio occultation bending angle retrievals

Science.gov (United States)

Gorbunov, Michael E.; Kirchengast, Gottfried

2018-01-01

A new reference occultation processing system (rOPS) will include a Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) retrieval chain with integrated uncertainty propagation. In this paper, we focus on wave-optics bending angle (BA) retrieval in the lower troposphere and introduce (1) an empirically estimated boundary layer bias (BLB) model then employed to reduce the systematic uncertainty of excess phases and bending angles in about the lowest 2 km of the troposphere and (2) the estimation of (residual) systematic uncertainties and their propagation together with random uncertainties from excess phase to bending angle profiles. Our BLB model describes the estimated bias of the excess phase transferred from the estimated bias of the bending angle, for which the model is built, informed by analyzing refractivity fluctuation statistics shown to induce such biases. The model is derived from regression analysis using a large ensemble of Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) RO observations and concurrent European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis fields. It is formulated in terms of predictors and adaptive functions (powers and cross products of predictors), where we use six main predictors derived from observations: impact altitude, latitude, bending angle and its standard deviation, canonical transform (CT) amplitude, and its fluctuation index. Based on an ensemble of test days, independent of the days of data used for the regression analysis to establish the BLB model, we find the model very effective for bias reduction and capable of reducing bending angle and corresponding refractivity biases by about a factor of 5. The estimated residual systematic uncertainty, after the BLB profile subtraction, is lower bounded by the uncertainty from the (indirect) use of ECMWF analysis fields but is significantly lower than the systematic uncertainty without BLB correction. The systematic and

Graft Utilization in the Bridging Reconstruction of Irreparable Rotator Cuff Tears: A Systematic Review.

Science.gov (United States)

Lewington, Matthew R; Ferguson, Devin P; Smith, T Duncan; Burks, Robert; Coady, Catherine; Wong, Ivan Ho-Bun

2017-11-01

Rotator cuff tears are one of the most common conditions affecting the shoulder. Because of the difficulty in managing massive rotator cuff tears and the inability of standard techniques to prevent arthropathy, surgeons have developed several novel techniques to improve outcomes and ideally alter the natural history. To systematically review the existing literature and analyze reported outcomes to evaluate the effectiveness of using a bridging graft reconstruction technique to treat large to massive irreparable rotator cuff tears. Systematic review. A systematic search of PubMed, EMBASE, CINAHL, and CENTRAL was employed with the key terms "tear," "allograft," and "rotator cuff." Eligibility was determined by a 3-phase screening process according to the outlined inclusion/exclusion criteria. Data in relation to the primary and secondary outcomes were summarized. The results were synthesized according to the origin of the graft and the level of evidence. Fifteen studies in total were included in this review: 2 comparative studies and 13 observational case series. Both the biceps tendon and the fascia lata autograft groups had significantly superior structural integrity rates on magnetic resonance imaging at 12-month minimum follow-up when compared with their partial primary repair counterparts (58% vs 26%, P = .036; 79% vs 58%, P rotator cuff tears demonstrated high structural healing rates (74%-90%, 73%-100%, and 60%-90%, respectively). Additionally, both comparative studies and case series demonstrated a general improvement of patients' functional outcome scores. Using a graft for an anatomic bridging rotator cuff repair results in improved function on objective testing and may be functionally better than nonanatomic or partial repair of large to massive rotator cuff tears. Allograft or xenograft techniques appear to be favorable options, given demonstrated functional improvement, imaging-supported graft survival, and lack of harvest complication risk. More high

Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

2010-11-01

A sound approach to rational decision making requires a decision maker to establish decision objectives, identify alternatives, and evaluate those...often violate the axioms of rationality when making decisions under uncertainty. The systematic description of such observations may lead to the...which leads to “anchoring” on the initial value. The fact that individuals have been shown to deviate from rationality when making decisions

A Systematic Review of Outcomes and Complications of Primary Fingertip Reconstruction Using Reverse-Flow Homodigital Island Flaps.

Science.gov (United States)

Regmi, Subhash; Gu, Jia-xiang; Zhang, Nai-chen; Liu, Hong-jun

2016-04-01

Fingertip reconstruction using reverse-flow homodigital island flaps has been very popular over the years. However, the outcomes of reconstruction have not been clearly understood. In these circumstances, a systematic review of available literature is warranted. To assess the outcomes and complications of fingertip reconstruction using reverse-flow homodigital island flaps. To justify the usage of reverse-flow homodigital island flaps for fingertip reconstruction. A PubMed [MEDLINE] electronic database was searched (1985 to 15 April 2015). Retrospective case series that met the following criteria were included: (1) Study reported primary data; (2) Study included at least five cases of fingertip defects treated using reverse-flow homodigital island flaps; (3) Study reported outcomes and complications of fingertip reconstruction, either primary or delayed, using reverse-flow homodigital island flaps; (4) The study presented at least one of the following functional outcomes: Static two-point discrimination, return-to-work time, range of motion of distal interphalangeal joints; (5) The study presented at least one complication. Two review authors independently assessed search results, and two other review authors analyzed the data and resolved disagreements. The following endpoints were analyzed: survival rate of the flap, sensibility, and functional outcomes and complications. Eight studies were included in this review. The included studies were published between 1995 and 2014, and a total of 207 patients with 230 fingertip defects were reported. The overall survival rate of the flap was 98 % (including partial survival). The mean static two-point discrimination (2PD) was 7.2 mm. The average range of motion of the DIP joint was 63°. The average return-to-work time was 7 weeks after injury. On average, 2 % of the patient had complete flap necrosis, 5 % had partial flap necrosis, 4 % developed venous congestion, 4 % developed flexion contracture, and 12 % experienced

Uncertainty in projected climate change arising from uncertain fossil-fuel emission factors

Science.gov (United States)

Quilcaille, Y.; Gasser, T.; Ciais, P.; Lecocq, F.; Janssens-Maenhout, G.; Mohr, S.

2018-04-01

Emission inventories are widely used by the climate community, but their uncertainties are rarely accounted for. In this study, we evaluate the uncertainty in projected climate change induced by uncertainties in fossil-fuel emissions, accounting for non-CO2 species co-emitted with the combustion of fossil-fuels and their use in industrial processes. Using consistent historical reconstructions and three contrasted future projections of fossil-fuel extraction from Mohr et al we calculate CO2 emissions and their uncertainties stemming from estimates of fuel carbon content, net calorific value and oxidation fraction. Our historical reconstructions of fossil-fuel CO2 emissions are consistent with other inventories in terms of average and range. The uncertainties sum up to a ±15% relative uncertainty in cumulative CO2 emissions by 2300. Uncertainties in the emissions of non-CO2 species associated with the use of fossil fuels are estimated using co-emission ratios varying with time. Using these inputs, we use the compact Earth system model OSCAR v2.2 and a Monte Carlo setup, in order to attribute the uncertainty in projected global surface temperature change (ΔT) to three sources of uncertainty, namely on the Earth system’s response, on fossil-fuel CO2 emission and on non-CO2 co-emissions. Under the three future fuel extraction scenarios, we simulate the median ΔT to be 1.9, 2.7 or 4.0 °C in 2300, with an associated 90% confidence interval of about 65%, 52% and 42%. We show that virtually all of the total uncertainty is attributable to the uncertainty in the future Earth system’s response to the anthropogenic perturbation. We conclude that the uncertainty in emission estimates can be neglected for global temperature projections in the face of the large uncertainty in the Earth system response to the forcing of emissions. We show that this result does not hold for all variables of the climate system, such as the atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 and the

Uncertainty characterization of HOAPS 3.3 latent heat-flux-related parameters

Science.gov (United States)

Liman, Julian; Schröder, Marc; Fennig, Karsten; Andersson, Axel; Hollmann, Rainer

2018-03-01

Latent heat flux (LHF) is one of the main contributors to the global energy budget. As the density of in situ LHF measurements over the global oceans is generally poor, the potential of remotely sensed LHF for meteorological applications is enormous. However, to date none of the available satellite products have included estimates of systematic, random, and sampling uncertainties, all of which are essential for assessing their quality. Here, the challenge is taken on by matching LHF-related pixel-level data of the Hamburg Ocean Atmosphere Parameters and Fluxes from Satellite (HOAPS) climatology (version 3.3) to in situ measurements originating from a high-quality data archive of buoys and selected ships. Assuming the ground reference to be bias-free, this allows for deriving instantaneous systematic uncertainties as a function of four atmospheric predictor variables. The approach is regionally independent and therefore overcomes the issue of sparse in situ data densities over large oceanic areas. Likewise, random uncertainties are derived, which include not only a retrieval component but also contributions from in situ measurement noise and the collocation procedure. A recently published random uncertainty decomposition approach is applied to isolate the random retrieval uncertainty of all LHF-related HOAPS parameters. It makes use of two combinations of independent data triplets of both satellite and in situ data, which are analysed in terms of their pairwise variances of differences. Instantaneous uncertainties are finally aggregated, allowing for uncertainty characterizations on monthly to multi-annual timescales. Results show that systematic LHF uncertainties range between 15 and 50 W m-2 with a global mean of 25 W m-2. Local maxima are mainly found over the subtropical ocean basins as well as along the western boundary currents. Investigations indicate that contributions from qa (U) to the overall LHF uncertainty are on the order of 60 % (25 %). From an

Surface reconstruction and deformation monitoring of stratospheric airship based on laser scanning technology

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Kai; Xie, Yongjie; Ye, Hu; Zhang, Song; Li, Yunfei

2018-04-01

Due to the uncertainty of stratospheric airship's shape and the security problem caused by the uncertainty, surface reconstruction and surface deformation monitoring of airship was conducted based on laser scanning technology and a √3-subdivision scheme based on Shepard interpolation was developed. Then, comparison was conducted between our subdivision scheme and the original √3-subdivision scheme. The result shows our subdivision scheme could reduce the shrinkage of surface and the number of narrow triangles. In addition, our subdivision scheme could keep the sharp features. So, surface reconstruction and surface deformation monitoring of airship could be conducted precisely by our subdivision scheme.

Leaf area index uncertainty estimates for model-data fusion applications

Science.gov (United States)

Andrew D. Richardson; D. Bryan Dail; D.Y. Hollinger

2011-01-01

Estimates of data uncertainties are required to integrate different observational data streams as model constraints using model-data fusion. We describe an approach with which random and systematic uncertainties in optical measurements of leaf area index [LAI] can be quantified. We use data from a measurement campaign at the spruce-dominated Howland Forest AmeriFlux...

Particle Dark Matter constraints: the effect of Galactic uncertainties

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Benito, Maria; Bernal, Nicolás; Iocco, Fabio [ICTP South American Institute for Fundamental Research Instituto de Física Teórica - Universidade Estadual Paulista (UNESP) Rua Dr. Bento Teobaldo Ferraz 271, 01140-070 São Paulo, SP Brazil (Brazil); Bozorgnia, Nassim; Calore, Francesca, E-mail: mariabenitocst@gmail.com, E-mail: nicolas.bernal@uan.edu.co, E-mail: n.bozorgnia@uva.nl, E-mail: calore@lapth.cnrs.fr, E-mail: fabio.iocco.astro@gmail.com [GRAPPA Institute, Institute for Theoretical Physics Amsterdam and Delta Institute for Theoretical Physics, University of Amsterdam, Science Park 904, 1098 XH Amsterdam (Netherlands)

2017-02-01

Collider, space, and Earth based experiments are now able to probe several extensions of the Standard Model of particle physics which provide viable dark matter candidates. Direct and indirect dark matter searches rely on inputs of astrophysical nature, such as the local dark matter density or the shape of the dark matter density profile in the target in object. The determination of these quantities is highly affected by astrophysical uncertainties. The latter, especially those for our own Galaxy, are ill-known, and often not fully accounted for when analyzing the phenomenology of particle physics models. In this paper we present a systematic, quantitative estimate of how astrophysical uncertainties on Galactic quantities (such as the local galactocentric distance, circular velocity, or the morphology of the stellar disk and bulge) propagate to the determination of the phenomenology of particle physics models, thus eventually affecting the determination of new physics parameters. We present results in the context of two specific extensions of the Standard Model (the Singlet Scalar and the Inert Doublet) that we adopt as case studies for their simplicity in illustrating the magnitude and impact of such uncertainties on the parameter space of the particle physics model itself. Our findings point toward very relevant effects of current Galactic uncertainties on the determination of particle physics parameters, and urge a systematic estimate of such uncertainties in more complex scenarios, in order to achieve constraints on the determination of new physics that realistically include all known uncertainties.

Community health nursing practices in contexts of poverty, uncertainty and unpredictability: a systematization of personal experiences.

Science.gov (United States)

Laperrière, Hélène

2007-01-01

Several years of professional nursing practices, while living in the poorest neighbourhoods in the outlying areas of Brazil's Amazon region, have led the author to develop a better understanding of marginalized populations. Providing care to people with leprosy and sex workers in riverside communities has taken place in conditions of uncertainty, insecurity, unpredictability and institutional violence. The question raised is how we can develop community health nursing practices in this context. A systematization of personal experiences based on popular education is used and analyzed as a way of learning by obtaining scientific knowledge through critical analysis of field practices. Ties of solidarity and belonging developed in informal, mutual-help action groups are promising avenues for research and the development of knowledge in health promotion, prevention and community care and a necessary contribution to national public health programmers.

Uncertainty In Measuring Noise Parameters Of a Communication Receiver

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Korcz, Karol; Palczynska, Beata; Spiralski, Ludwik

2005-01-01

The paper presents the method of assessing uncertainty in measuring the usable sensitivity Es of communication receiver. The influence of partial uncertainties of measuring the noise factor F and the energy pass band of the receiver Δf on the combined standard uncertainty level is analyzed. The method to assess the uncertainty in measuring the noise factor on the basis of the systematic component of uncertainty, assuming that the main source of measurement uncertainty is the hardware of the measuring system, is proposed. The assessment of uncertainty in measuring the pass band of the receiver is determined with the assumption that input quantities of the measurement equation are not correlated. They are successive, discrete values of the spectral power density of the noise on the output of receiver. The results of the analyses of particular uncertainties components of measuring the sensitivity, which were carried out for a typical communication receiver, are presented

Strategy under uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Courtney, H; Kirkland, J; Viguerie, P

1997-01-01

At the heart of the traditional approach to strategy lies the assumption that by applying a set of powerful analytic tools, executives can predict the future of any business accurately enough to allow them to choose a clear strategic direction. But what happens when the environment is so uncertain that no amount of analysis will allow us to predict the future? What makes for a good strategy in highly uncertain business environments? The authors, consultants at McKinsey & Company, argue that uncertainty requires a new way of thinking about strategy. All too often, they say, executives take a binary view: either they underestimate uncertainty to come up with the forecasts required by their companies' planning or capital-budging processes, or they overestimate it, abandon all analysis, and go with their gut instinct. The authors outline a new approach that begins by making a crucial distinction among four discrete levels of uncertainty that any company might face. They then explain how a set of generic strategies--shaping the market, adapting to it, or reserving the right to play at a later time--can be used in each of the four levels. And they illustrate how these strategies can be implemented through a combination of three basic types of actions: big bets, options, and no-regrets moves. The framework can help managers determine which analytic tools can inform decision making under uncertainty--and which cannot. At a broader level, it offers executives a discipline for thinking rigorously and systematically about uncertainty and its implications for strategy.

Determination of electron beam polarization using electron detector in Compton polarimeter with less than 1% statistical and systematic uncertainty

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Narayan, Amrendra [Mississippi State Univ., Mississippi State, MS (United States)

2015-05-01

The Q-weak experiment aims to measure the weak charge of proton with a precision of 4.2%. The proposed precision on weak charge required a 2.5% measurement of the parity violating asymmetry in elastic electron - proton scattering. Polarimetry was the largest experimental contribution to this uncertainty and a new Compton polarimeter was installed in Hall C at Jefferson Lab to make the goal achievable. In this polarimeter the electron beam collides with green laser light in a low gain Fabry-Perot Cavity; the scattered electrons are detected in 4 planes of a novel diamond micro strip detector while the back scattered photons are detected in lead tungstate crystals. This diamond micro-strip detector is the first such device to be used as a tracking detector in a nuclear and particle physics experiment. The diamond detectors are read out using custom built electronic modules that include a preamplifier, a pulse shaping amplifier and a discriminator for each detector micro-strip. We use field programmable gate array based general purpose logic modules for event selection and histogramming. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations and data acquisition simulations were performed to estimate the systematic uncertainties. Additionally, the Moller and Compton polarimeters were cross calibrated at low electron beam currents using a series of interleaved measurements. In this dissertation, we describe all the subsystems of the Compton polarimeter with emphasis on the electron detector. We focus on the FPGA based data acquisition system built by the author and the data analysis methods implemented by the author. The simulations of the data acquisition and the polarimeter that helped rigorously establish the systematic uncertainties of the polarimeter are also elaborated, resulting in the first sub 1% measurement of low energy (?1 GeV) electron beam polarization with a Compton electron detector. We have demonstrated that diamond based micro-strip detectors can be used for tracking in a

Mitigating Provider Uncertainty in Service Provision Contracts

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Chris; van Moorsel, Aad

Uncertainty is an inherent property of open, distributed and multiparty systems. The viability of the mutually beneficial relationships which motivate these systems relies on rational decision-making by each constituent party under uncertainty. Service provision in distributed systems is one such relationship. Uncertainty is experienced by the service provider in his ability to deliver a service with selected quality level guarantees due to inherent non-determinism, such as load fluctuations and hardware failures. Statistical estimators utilized to model this non-determinism introduce additional uncertainty through sampling error. Inability of the provider to accurately model and analyze uncertainty in the quality level guarantees can result in the formation of sub-optimal service provision contracts. Emblematic consequences include loss of revenue, inefficient resource utilization and erosion of reputation and consumer trust. We propose a utility model for contract-based service provision to provide a systematic approach to optimal service provision contract formation under uncertainty. Performance prediction methods to enable the derivation of statistical estimators for quality level are introduced, with analysis of their resultant accuracy and cost.

Uncertainties in Nuclear Proliferation Modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Chul Min; Yim, Man-Sung; Park, Hyeon Seok

2015-01-01

There have been various efforts in the research community to understand the determinants of nuclear proliferation and develop quantitative tools to predict nuclear proliferation events. Such systematic approaches have shown the possibility to provide warning for the international community to prevent nuclear proliferation activities. However, there are still large debates for the robustness of the actual effect of determinants and projection results. Some studies have shown that several factors can cause uncertainties in previous quantitative nuclear proliferation modeling works. This paper analyzes the uncertainties in the past approaches and suggests future works in the view of proliferation history, analysis methods, and variable selection. The research community still lacks the knowledge for the source of uncertainty in current models. Fundamental problems in modeling will remain even other advanced modeling method is developed. Before starting to develop fancy model based on the time dependent proliferation determinants' hypothesis, using graph theory, etc., it is important to analyze the uncertainty of current model to solve the fundamental problems of nuclear proliferation modeling. The uncertainty from different proliferation history coding is small. Serious problems are from limited analysis methods and correlation among the variables. Problems in regression analysis and survival analysis cause huge uncertainties when using the same dataset, which decreases the robustness of the result. Inaccurate variables for nuclear proliferation also increase the uncertainty. To overcome these problems, further quantitative research should focus on analyzing the knowledge suggested on the qualitative nuclear proliferation studies

Optimal processing pathway selection for microalgae-based biorefinery under uncertainty

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rizwan, Muhammad; Zaman, Muhammad; Lee, Jay H.

2015-01-01

We propose a systematic framework for the selection of optimal processing pathways for a microalgaebased biorefinery under techno-economic uncertainty. The proposed framework promotes robust decision making by taking into account the uncertainties that arise due to inconsistencies among...... and shortage in the available technical information. A stochastic mixed integer nonlinear programming (sMINLP) problem is formulated for determining the optimal biorefinery configurations based on a superstructure model where parameter uncertainties are modeled and included as sampled scenarios. The solution...... the accounting of uncertainty are compared with respect to different objectives. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved....

Performance of muon reconstruction including Alignment Position Errors for 2016 Collision Data

CERN Document Server

CMS Collaboration

2016-01-01

From 2016 Run muon reconstruction is using non-zero Alignment Position Errors to account for the residual uncertainties of muon chambers' positions. Significant improvements are obtained in particular for the startup phase after opening/closing the muon detector. Performance results are presented for real data and MC simulations, related to both the offline reconstruction and the High-Level Trigger.

Baryon Acoustic Oscillations reconstruction with pixels

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Obuljen, Andrej [SISSA—International School for Advanced Studies, Via Bonomea 265, 34136 Trieste (Italy); Villaescusa-Navarro, Francisco [Center for Computational Astrophysics, 160 5th Ave, New York, NY, 10010 (United States); Castorina, Emanuele [Berkeley Center for Cosmological Physics, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States); Viel, Matteo, E-mail: aobuljen@sissa.it, E-mail: fvillaescusa@simonsfoundation.org, E-mail: ecastorina@berkeley.edu, E-mail: viel@oats.inaf.it [INAF, Osservatorio Astronomico di Trieste, via Tiepolo 11, I-34131 Trieste (Italy)

2017-09-01

Gravitational non-linear evolution induces a shift in the position of the baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) peak together with a damping and broadening of its shape that bias and degrades the accuracy with which the position of the peak can be determined. BAO reconstruction is a technique developed to undo part of the effect of non-linearities. We present and analyse a reconstruction method that consists of displacing pixels instead of galaxies and whose implementation is easier than the standard reconstruction method. We show that this method is equivalent to the standard reconstruction technique in the limit where the number of pixels becomes very large. This method is particularly useful in surveys where individual galaxies are not resolved, as in 21cm intensity mapping observations. We validate this method by reconstructing mock pixelated maps, that we build from the distribution of matter and halos in real- and redshift-space, from a large set of numerical simulations. We find that this method is able to decrease the uncertainty in the BAO peak position by 30-50% over the typical angular resolution scales of 21 cm intensity mapping experiments.

A comparison of ancestral state reconstruction methods for quantitative characters.

Science.gov (United States)

Royer-Carenzi, Manuela; Didier, Gilles

2016-09-07

Choosing an ancestral state reconstruction method among the alternatives available for quantitative characters may be puzzling. We present here a comparison of seven of them, namely the maximum likelihood, restricted maximum likelihood, generalized least squares under Brownian, Brownian-with-trend and Ornstein-Uhlenbeck models, phylogenetic independent contrasts and squared parsimony methods. A review of the relations between these methods shows that the maximum likelihood, the restricted maximum likelihood and the generalized least squares under Brownian model infer the same ancestral states and can only be distinguished by the distributions accounting for the reconstruction uncertainty which they provide. The respective accuracy of the methods is assessed over character evolution simulated under a Brownian motion with (and without) directional or stabilizing selection. We give the general form of ancestral state distributions conditioned on leaf states under the simulation models. Ancestral distributions are used first, to give a theoretical lower bound of the expected reconstruction error, and second, to develop an original evaluation scheme which is more efficient than comparing the reconstructed and the simulated states. Our simulations show that: (i) the distributions of the reconstruction uncertainty provided by the methods generally make sense (some more than others); (ii) it is essential to detect the presence of an evolutionary trend and to choose a reconstruction method accordingly; (iii) all the methods show good performances on characters under stabilizing selection; (iv) without trend or stabilizing selection, the maximum likelihood method is generally the most accurate. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Resolving uncertainty in chemical speciation determinations

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, D. Scott; Adams, Nicholas W. H.; Kramer, James R.

1999-10-01

Speciation determinations involve uncertainty in system definition and experimentation. Identification of appropriate metals and ligands from basic chemical principles, analytical window considerations, types of species and checking for consistency in equilibrium calculations are considered in system definition uncertainty. A systematic approach to system definition limits uncertainty in speciation investigations. Experimental uncertainty is discussed with an example of proton interactions with Suwannee River fulvic acid (SRFA). A Monte Carlo approach was used to estimate uncertainty in experimental data, resulting from the propagation of uncertainties in electrode calibration parameters and experimental data points. Monte Carlo simulations revealed large uncertainties present at high (>9-10) and low (monoprotic ligands. Least-squares fit the data with 21 sites, whereas linear programming fit the data equally well with 9 sites. Multiresponse fitting, involving simultaneous fluorescence and pH measurements, improved model discrimination. Deconvolution of the excitation versus emission fluorescence surface for SRFA establishes a minimum of five sites. Diprotic sites are also required for the five fluorescent sites, and one non-fluorescent monoprotic site was added to accommodate the pH data. Consistent with greater complexity, the multiresponse method had broader confidence limits than the uniresponse methods, but corresponded better with the accepted total carboxylic content for SRFA. Overall there was a 40% standard deviation in total carboxylic content for the multiresponse fitting, versus 10% and 1% for least-squares and linear programming, respectively.

Uncertainty, joint uncertainty, and the quantum uncertainty principle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Narasimhachar, Varun; Poostindouz, Alireza; Gour, Gilad

2016-01-01

Historically, the element of uncertainty in quantum mechanics has been expressed through mathematical identities called uncertainty relations, a great many of which continue to be discovered. These relations use diverse measures to quantify uncertainty (and joint uncertainty). In this paper we use operational information-theoretic principles to identify the common essence of all such measures, thereby defining measure-independent notions of uncertainty and joint uncertainty. We find that most existing entropic uncertainty relations use measures of joint uncertainty that yield themselves to a small class of operational interpretations. Our notion relaxes this restriction, revealing previously unexplored joint uncertainty measures. To illustrate the utility of our formalism, we derive an uncertainty relation based on one such new measure. We also use our formalism to gain insight into the conditions under which measure-independent uncertainty relations can be found. (paper)

Continuous Nondestructive Monitoring Method Using the Reconstructed Three-Dimensional Conductivity Images via GREIT for Tissue Engineering

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sujin Ahn

2014-01-01

Full Text Available A continuous Nondestructive monitoring method is required to apply proper feedback controls during tissue regeneration. Conductivity is one of valuable information to assess the physiological function and structural formation of regenerated tissues or cultured cells. However, conductivity imaging methods suffered from inherited ill-posed characteristics in image reconstruction, unknown boundary geometry, uncertainty in electrode position, and systematic artifacts. In order to overcome the limitation of microscopic electrical impedance tomography (micro-EIT, we applied a 3D-specific container with a fixed boundary geometry and electrode configuration to maximize the performance of Graz consensus reconstruction algorithm for EIT (GREIT. The separation of driving and sensing electrodes allows us to simplify the hardware complexity and obtain higher measurement accuracy from a large number of small sensing electrodes. We investigated the applicability of the GREIT to 3D micro-EIT images via numerical simulations and large-scale phantom experiments. We could reconstruct multiple objects regardless of the location. The resolution was 5 mm3 with 30 dB SNR and the position error was less than 2.54 mm. This shows that the new micro-EIT system integrated with GREIT is robust with the intended resolution. With further refinement and scaling down to a microscale container, it may be a continuous nondestructive monitoring tool for tissue engineering applications.

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Early health effects uncertainty assessment. Volume 2: Appendices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Haskin, F.E. [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands)

1997-12-01

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA early health effects models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on early health effects, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for internal dosimetry. Volume 2: Appendices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Harrison, J.D. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Harper, F.T. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

1998-04-01

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA internal dosimetry models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on internal dosimetry, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

Evaluation of uncertainty sources and propagation from irradiance sensors to PV yield

OpenAIRE

Mariottini, Francesco; Gottschalg, Ralph; Betts, Tom; Zhu, Jiang

2018-01-01

This work quantifies the uncertainties of a pyranometer. Sensitivity to errors is analysed regarding the effects generated by adopting different time resolutions. Estimation of irradiance measurand and error is extended throughout an annual data set. This study represents an attempt to provide a more exhaustive overview of both systematic (i.e. physical) and random uncertainties in the evaluation of pyranometer measurements. Starting from expanded uncertainty in a monitored ...

["Long-branch Attraction" artifact in phylogenetic reconstruction].

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Yi-Wei; Yu, Li; Zhang, Ya-Ping

2007-06-01

Phylogenetic reconstruction among various organisms not only helps understand their evolutionary history but also reveal several fundamental evolutionary questions. Understanding of the evolutionary relationships among organisms establishes the foundation for the investigations of other biological disciplines. However, almost all the widely used phylogenetic methods have limitations which fail to eliminate systematic errors effectively, preventing the reconstruction of true organismal relationships. "Long-branch Attraction" (LBA) artifact is one of the most disturbing factors in phylogenetic reconstruction. In this review, the conception and analytic method as well as the avoidance strategy of LBA were summarized. In addition, several typical examples were provided. The approach to avoid and resolve LBA artifact has been discussed.

Analysis of the performance of a H-Darrieus rotor under uncertainty using Polynomial Chaos Expansion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Daróczy, László; Janiga, Gábor; Thévenin, Dominique

2016-01-01

Due to the growing importance of wind energy, improving the efficiency of energy conversion is essential. Horizontal Axis Wind Turbines are the most well-spread, but H-Darrieus turbines are becoming popular as well due to their simple design and easier integration. Due to the high efficiency of existing wind turbines, further improvements require numerical optimization. One important aspect is to find a better configuration that is also robust, i.e., a configuration that retains its performance under uncertainties. For this purpose, forward uncertainty propagation has to be applied. In the present work, an Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) method, Polynomial Chaos Expansion, is applied to transient, turbulent flow simulations of a variable-speed H-Darrieus turbine, taking into account uncertainty in the preset pitch angle and in the angular velocity. The resulting uncertainty of the performance coefficient and of the quasi-periodic torque curve are quantified. In the presence of stall the instantaneous torque coefficients tend to show asymmetric distributions, meaning that error bars cannot be correctly reconstructed using only mean value and standard deviation. The expected performance was always found to be smaller than in computations without UQ techniques, corresponding to up to 10% of relative losses for λ = 2.5. - Highlights: • Uncertainty Quantification/Polynomial Chaos Expansion successfully applied to H-rotor. • Accounting simultaneously for uncertainty in pitch angle and angular velocity. • Performance coefficient decreases by up to 10% when accounting for uncertainty. • For low tip-speed-ratio, high-order polynomials are needed. • Polynomial order 4 is sufficient to reconstruct distribution at higher TSR.

A Taxonomic Reduced-Space Pollen Model for Paleoclimate Reconstruction

Science.gov (United States)

Wahl, E. R.; Schoelzel, C.

2010-12-01

for T as a function of α, β, and E(r|T): T = {ln[E(r|T)/{1-E(r|T)}]-α}/β. To enable use in paleoreconstruction, the observed r values from fossil pollen data are, by assumption, treated as unbiased estimators of the true r value at each time sampled, which can be substituted for E(r|T). Uncertainty in this reconstruction is systematically evaluated in two parts: 1) the observed r values and their corresponding n values are input as parameters into the binomial distribution, Monte Carlo random pollen count draws are made, and a new ratio value is determined for each iteration; and 2) in the "traditional" GLM the estimated SEs for α and β are used with the α and β EV estimates to yield Monte Carlo random draws for each binomial draw (assuming α and β are Gaussian), in the Bayesian GLM random draws for α and β are taken directly from their estimated posterior distribution. Both methods yield nearly identical reconstructions from varved lakes in Wisconsin where the model has been tested; slightly narrower uncertainty ranges are produced by the Bayesian model. The Little Ice Age is readily identified. Pine:Oak and Fir:Oak versions of the model used in S. California show differences from MAT-based reconstructions.

Reconstruction of individual doses in population evacuated from Pripyat based on imitation stochastic model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chumak, V.V.

1998-01-01

Imitation stochastic approach to the reconstruction of individual doses of a large group of irradiated population (12632 persons) was used for the first time,evaluation of uncertainty of the obtained results was made. When the error of the dose reconstruction is small, the method is reliable providing a high accuracy of the results

Understanding uncertainty propagation in life cycle assessments of waste management systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bisinella, Valentina; Conradsen, Knut; Christensen, Thomas Højlund

2015-01-01

Uncertainty analysis in Life Cycle Assessments (LCAs) of waste management systems often results obscure and complex, with key parameters rarely determined on a case-by-case basis. The paper shows an application of a simplified approach to uncertainty coupled with a Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA......) perspective on three alternative waste management systems for Danish single-family household waste. The approach provides a fast and systematic method to select the most important parameters in the LCAs, understand their propagation and contribution to uncertainty....

Impact of dose-distribution uncertainties on rectal ntcp modeling I: Uncertainty estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fenwick, John D.; Nahum, Alan E.

2001-01-01

A trial of nonescalated conformal versus conventional radiotherapy treatment of prostate cancer has been carried out at the Royal Marsden NHS Trust (RMH) and Institute of Cancer Research (ICR), demonstrating a significant reduction in the rate of rectal bleeding reported for patients treated using the conformal technique. The relationship between planned rectal dose-distributions and incidences of bleeding has been analyzed, showing that the rate of bleeding falls significantly as the extent of the rectal wall receiving a planned dose-level of more than 57 Gy is reduced. Dose-distributions delivered to the rectal wall over the course of radiotherapy treatment inevitably differ from planned distributions, due to sources of uncertainty such as patient setup error, rectal wall movement and variation in the absolute rectal wall surface area. In this paper estimates of the differences between planned and treated rectal dose-distribution parameters are obtained for the RMH/ICR nonescalated conformal technique, working from a distribution of setup errors observed during the RMH/ICR trial, movement data supplied by Lebesque and colleagues derived from repeat CT scans, and estimates of rectal circumference variations extracted from the literature. Setup errors and wall movement are found to cause only limited systematic differences between mean treated and planned rectal dose-distribution parameter values, but introduce considerable uncertainties into the treated values of some dose-distribution parameters: setup errors lead to 22% and 9% relative uncertainties in the highly dosed fraction of the rectal wall and the wall average dose, respectively, with wall movement leading to 21% and 9% relative uncertainties. Estimates obtained from the literature of the uncertainty in the absolute surface area of the distensible rectal wall are of the order of 13%-18%. In a subsequent paper the impact of these uncertainties on analyses of the relationship between incidences of bleeding

Taylor-series and Monte-Carlo-method uncertainty estimation of the width of a probability distribution based on varying bias and random error

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilson, Brandon M; Smith, Barton L

2013-01-01

Uncertainties are typically assumed to be constant or a linear function of the measured value; however, this is generally not true. Particle image velocimetry (PIV) is one example of a measurement technique that has highly nonlinear, time varying local uncertainties. Traditional uncertainty methods are not adequate for the estimation of the uncertainty of measurement statistics (mean and variance) in the presence of nonlinear, time varying errors. Propagation of instantaneous uncertainty estimates into measured statistics is performed allowing accurate uncertainty quantification of time-mean and statistics of measurements such as PIV. It is shown that random errors will always elevate the measured variance, and thus turbulent statistics such as u'u'-bar. Within this paper, nonlinear, time varying errors are propagated from instantaneous measurements into the measured mean and variance using the Taylor-series method. With these results and knowledge of the systematic and random uncertainty of each measurement, the uncertainty of the time-mean, the variance and covariance can be found. Applicability of the Taylor-series uncertainty equations to time varying systematic and random errors and asymmetric error distributions are demonstrated with Monte-Carlo simulations. The Taylor-series uncertainty estimates are always accurate for uncertainties on the mean quantity. The Taylor-series variance uncertainty is similar to the Monte-Carlo results for cases in which asymmetric random errors exist or the magnitude of the instantaneous variations in the random and systematic errors is near the ‘true’ variance. However, the Taylor-series method overpredicts the uncertainty in the variance as the instantaneous variations of systematic errors are large or are on the same order of magnitude as the ‘true’ variance. (paper)

Error Propagation dynamics: from PIV-based pressure reconstruction to vorticity field calculation

Science.gov (United States)

Pan, Zhao; Whitehead, Jared; Richards, Geordie; Truscott, Tadd; USU Team; BYU Team

2017-11-01

Noninvasive data from velocimetry experiments (e.g., PIV) have been used to calculate vorticity and pressure fields. However, the noise, error, or uncertainties in the PIV measurements would eventually propagate to the calculated pressure or vorticity field through reconstruction schemes. Despite the vast applications of pressure and/or vorticity field calculated from PIV measurements, studies on the error propagation from the velocity field to the reconstructed fields (PIV-pressure and PIV-vorticity are few. In the current study, we break down the inherent connections between PIV-based pressure reconstruction and PIV-based vorticity calculation. The similar error propagation dynamics, which involve competition between physical properties of the flow and numerical errors from reconstruction schemes, are found in both PIV-pressure and PIV-vorticity reconstructions.

Systematic homogenization and self-consistent flux and pin power reconstruction for nodal diffusion methods. 1: Diffusion equation-based theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, H.; Rizwan-uddin; Dorning, J.J.

1995-01-01

A diffusion equation-based systematic homogenization theory and a self-consistent dehomogenization theory for fuel assemblies have been developed for use with coarse-mesh nodal diffusion calculations of light water reactors. The theoretical development is based on a multiple-scales asymptotic expansion carried out through second order in a small parameter, the ratio of the average diffusion length to the reactor characteristic dimension. By starting from the neutron diffusion equation for a three-dimensional heterogeneous medium and introducing two spatial scales, the development systematically yields an assembly-homogenized global diffusion equation with self-consistent expressions for the assembly-homogenized diffusion tensor elements and cross sections and assembly-surface-flux discontinuity factors. The rector eigenvalue 1/k eff is shown to be obtained to the second order in the small parameter, and the heterogeneous diffusion theory flux is shown to be obtained to leading order in that parameter. The latter of these two results provides a natural procedure for the reconstruction of the local fluxes and the determination of pin powers, even though homogenized assemblies are used in the global nodal diffusion calculation

Hanford environmental dose reconstruction project - an overview

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shipler, D.B.; Napier, B.A.; Farris, W.T.

1996-01-01

The Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project was initiated because of public interest in the historical releases of radioactive materials from the Hanford Site, located in southcentral Washington State. By 1986, over 38,000 pages of environmental monitoring documentation from the early years of Hanford operations had been released. Special committees reviewing the documents recommended initiation of the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project, which began in October 1987, and is conducted by Battelle, Pacific Northwest Laboratories. The technical approach taken was to reconstruct releases of radioactive materials based on facility operating information; develop and/or adapt transport, pathway, and dose models and computer codes; reconstruct environmental, meterological, and hydrological monitoring information; reconstruct demographic, agricultural, and lifestyle characteristics; apply statistical methods to all forms of uncertainty in the information, parameters, and models; and perform scientific investigation that were technically defensible. The geographic area for the study includes ∼2 x 10 5 km 2 (75,000 mi 2 ) in eastern Washington, western Idaho, and northeastern Oregon (essentially the Mid-columbia Basin of the Pacific Northwest). Three exposure pathways were considered: the atmosphere, the Columbia River, and ground water

Reconstruction of chaotic signals with applications to chaos-based communications

CERN Document Server

Feng, Jiu Chao

2008-01-01

This book provides a systematic review of the fundamental theory of signal reconstruction and the practical techniques used in reconstructing chaotic signals. Specific applications of signal reconstruction methods in chaos-based communications are expounded in full detail, along with examples illustrating the various problems associated with such applications.The book serves as an advanced textbook for undergraduate and graduate courses in electronic and information engineering, automatic control, physics and applied mathematics. It is also highly suited for general nonlinear scientists who wi

Comparing and improving reconstruction methods for proxies based on compositional data

Science.gov (United States)

Nolan, C.; Tipton, J.; Booth, R.; Jackson, S. T.; Hooten, M.

2017-12-01

Many types of studies in paleoclimatology and paleoecology involve compositional data. Often, these studies aim to use compositional data to reconstruct an environmental variable of interest; the reconstruction is usually done via the development of a transfer function. Transfer functions have been developed using many different methods. Existing methods tend to relate the compositional data and the reconstruction target in very simple ways. Additionally, the results from different methods are rarely compared. Here we seek to address these two issues. First, we introduce a new hierarchical Bayesian multivariate gaussian process model; this model allows for the relationship between each species in the compositional dataset and the environmental variable to be modeled in a way that captures the underlying complexities. Then, we compare this new method to machine learning techniques and commonly used existing methods. The comparisons are based on reconstructing the water table depth history of Caribou Bog (an ombrotrophic Sphagnum peat bog in Old Town, Maine, USA) from a new 7500 year long record of testate amoebae assemblages. The resulting reconstructions from different methods diverge in both their resulting means and uncertainties. In particular, uncertainty tends to be drastically underestimated by some common methods. These results will help to improve inference of water table depth from testate amoebae. Furthermore, this approach can be applied to test and improve inferences of past environmental conditions from a broad array of paleo-proxies based on compositional data

Impact of geometric uncertainties on evaluation of treatment techniques for prostate cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Craig, Tim; Wong, Eugene; Bauman, Glenn; Battista, Jerry; Van Dyk, Jake

2005-01-01

Purpose: To assess the impact of patient repositioning and internal organ motion on prostate treatment plans using three-dimensional conformal and intensity-modulated radiotherapy. Methods and materials: Four-field, six-field, and simplified intensity-modulated arc therapy plans were generated for 5 prostate cancer patients. The planning target volume was created by adding a 1-cm margin to the clinical target volume. A convolution model was used to estimate the effect of random geometric uncertainties during treatment. Dose statistics, tumor control probabilities, and normal tissue complication probabilities were compared with and without the presence of uncertainty. The impact of systematic uncertainties was also investigated. Results: Compared with the planned treatments, the delivered dose distribution with random geometric uncertainties displayed an increase in the apparent minimal dose to the prostate and seminal vesicles and a decrease in the rectal volume receiving a high dose. This increased the tumor control probabilities and decreased the normal tissue complication probabilities. Changes were seen in the percentage of prostate volume receiving 100% and 95% of the prescribed dose, and the minimal dose and tumor control probabilities for the target volume. In addition, the volume receiving at least 65 Gy, the minimal dose, and normal tissue complication probabilities changed considerably for the rectum. The simplified intensity-modulated arc therapy technique was the most sensitive to systematic errors, especially in the anterior-posterior and superior-inferior directions. Conclusion: Geometric uncertainties should be considered when evaluating treatment plans. Contrary to the widely held belief, increased conformation of the dose distribution is not always associated with increased sensitivity to random geometric uncertainties if a sufficient planning target volume margin is used. Systematic errors may have a variable effect, depending on the treatment

A systematic approach to the modelling of measurements for uncertainty evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sommer, K D; Weckenmann, A; Siebert, B R L

2005-01-01

The evaluation of measurement uncertainty is based on both, the knowledge about the measuring process and the quantities which influence the measurement result. The knowledge about the measuring process is represented by the model equation which expresses the interrelation between the measurand and the input quantities. Therefore, the modelling of the measurement is a key element of modern uncertainty evaluation. A modelling concept has been developed that is based on the idea of the measuring chain. It gets on with only a few generic model structures. From this concept, a practical stepwise procedure has been derived

Reconstruction of multiple-pinhole micro-SPECT data using origin ensembles.

Science.gov (United States)

Lyon, Morgan C; Sitek, Arkadiusz; Metzler, Scott D; Moore, Stephen C

2016-10-01

The authors are currently developing a dual-resolution multiple-pinhole microSPECT imaging system based on three large NaI(Tl) gamma cameras. Two multiple-pinhole tungsten collimator tubes will be used sequentially for whole-body "scout" imaging of a mouse, followed by high-resolution (hi-res) imaging of an organ of interest, such as the heart or brain. Ideally, the whole-body image will be reconstructed in real time such that data need only be acquired until the area of interest can be visualized well-enough to determine positioning for the hi-res scan. The authors investigated the utility of the origin ensemble (OE) algorithm for online and offline reconstructions of the scout data. This algorithm operates directly in image space, and can provide estimates of image uncertainty, along with reconstructed images. Techniques for accelerating the OE reconstruction were also introduced and evaluated. System matrices were calculated for our 39-pinhole scout collimator design. SPECT projections were simulated for a range of count levels using the MOBY digital mouse phantom. Simulated data were used for a comparison of OE and maximum-likelihood expectation maximization (MLEM) reconstructions. The OE algorithm convergence was evaluated by calculating the total-image entropy and by measuring the counts in a volume-of-interest (VOI) containing the heart. Total-image entropy was also calculated for simulated MOBY data reconstructed using OE with various levels of parallelization. For VOI measurements in the heart, liver, bladder, and soft-tissue, MLEM and OE reconstructed images agreed within 6%. Image entropy converged after ∼2000 iterations of OE, while the counts in the heart converged earlier at ∼200 iterations of OE. An accelerated version of OE completed 1000 iterations in <9 min for a 6.8M count data set, with some loss of image entropy performance, whereas the same dataset required ∼79 min to complete 1000 iterations of conventional OE. A combination of the two

A terrestrial lidar-based workflow for determining three-dimensional slip vectors and associated uncertainties

Science.gov (United States)

Gold, Peter O.; Cowgill, Eric; Kreylos, Oliver; Gold, Ryan D.

2012-01-01

Three-dimensional (3D) slip vectors recorded by displaced landforms are difficult to constrain across complex fault zones, and the uncertainties associated with such measurements become increasingly challenging to assess as landforms degrade over time. We approach this problem from a remote sensing perspective by using terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) and 3D structural analysis. We have developed an integrated TLS data collection and point-based analysis workflow that incorporates accurate assessments of aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties using experimental surveys, Monte Carlo simulations, and iterative site reconstructions. Our scanning workflow and equipment requirements are optimized for single-operator surveying, and our data analysis process is largely completed using new point-based computing tools in an immersive 3D virtual reality environment. In a case study, we measured slip vector orientations at two sites along the rupture trace of the 1954 Dixie Valley earthquake (central Nevada, United States), yielding measurements that are the first direct constraints on the 3D slip vector for this event. These observations are consistent with a previous approximation of net extension direction for this event. We find that errors introduced by variables in our survey method result in <2.5 cm of variability in components of displacement, and are eclipsed by the 10–60 cm epistemic errors introduced by reconstructing the field sites to their pre-erosion geometries. Although the higher resolution TLS data sets enabled visualization and data interactivity critical for reconstructing the 3D slip vector and for assessing uncertainties, dense topographic constraints alone were not sufficient to significantly narrow the wide (<26°) range of allowable slip vector orientations that resulted from accounting for epistemic uncertainties.

Development of Evaluation Code for MUF Uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Won, Byung Hee; Han, Bo Young; Shin, Hee Sung; Ahn, Seong-Kyu; Park, Geun-Il; Park, Se Hwan

2015-01-01

Material Unaccounted For (MUF) is the material balance evaluated by measured nuclear material in a Material Balance Area (MBA). Assuming perfect measurements and no diversion from a facility, one can expect a zero MUF. However, non-zero MUF is always occurred because of measurement uncertainty even though the facility is under normal operation condition. Furthermore, there are many measurements using different equipment at various Key Measurement Points (KMPs), and the MUF uncertainty is affected by errors of those measurements. Evaluating MUF uncertainty is essentially required to develop safeguards system including nuclear measurement system in pyroprocessing, which is being developed for reducing radioactive waste from spent fuel in Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI). The evaluation code for analyzing MUF uncertainty has been developed and it was verified using sample problem from the IAEA reference. MUF uncertainty can be simply and quickly calculated by using this evaluation code which is made based on graphical user interface for user friendly. It is also expected that the code will make the sensitivity analysis on the MUF uncertainty for the various safeguards systems easy and more systematic. It is suitable for users who want to evaluate the conventional safeguards system as well as to develop a new system for developing facilities

Development of Evaluation Code for MUF Uncertainty

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Won, Byung Hee; Han, Bo Young; Shin, Hee Sung; Ahn, Seong-Kyu; Park, Geun-Il; Park, Se Hwan [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-05-15

Material Unaccounted For (MUF) is the material balance evaluated by measured nuclear material in a Material Balance Area (MBA). Assuming perfect measurements and no diversion from a facility, one can expect a zero MUF. However, non-zero MUF is always occurred because of measurement uncertainty even though the facility is under normal operation condition. Furthermore, there are many measurements using different equipment at various Key Measurement Points (KMPs), and the MUF uncertainty is affected by errors of those measurements. Evaluating MUF uncertainty is essentially required to develop safeguards system including nuclear measurement system in pyroprocessing, which is being developed for reducing radioactive waste from spent fuel in Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI). The evaluation code for analyzing MUF uncertainty has been developed and it was verified using sample problem from the IAEA reference. MUF uncertainty can be simply and quickly calculated by using this evaluation code which is made based on graphical user interface for user friendly. It is also expected that the code will make the sensitivity analysis on the MUF uncertainty for the various safeguards systems easy and more systematic. It is suitable for users who want to evaluate the conventional safeguards system as well as to develop a new system for developing facilities.

Not Normal: the uncertainties of scientific measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Bailey, David C.

2017-01-01

Judging the significance and reproducibility of quantitative research requires a good understanding of relevant uncertainties, but it is often unclear how well these have been evaluated and what they imply. Reported scientific uncertainties were studied by analysing 41 000 measurements of 3200 quantities from medicine, nuclear and particle physics, and interlaboratory comparisons ranging from chemistry to toxicology. Outliers are common, with 5σ disagreements up to five orders of magnitude more frequent than naively expected. Uncertainty-normalized differences between multiple measurements of the same quantity are consistent with heavy-tailed Student's t-distributions that are often almost Cauchy, far from a Gaussian Normal bell curve. Medical research uncertainties are generally as well evaluated as those in physics, but physics uncertainty improves more rapidly, making feasible simple significance criteria such as the 5σ discovery convention in particle physics. Contributions to measurement uncertainty from mistakes and unknown problems are not completely unpredictable. Such errors appear to have power-law distributions consistent with how designed complex systems fail, and how unknown systematic errors are constrained by researchers. This better understanding may help improve analysis and meta-analysis of data, and help scientists and the public have more realistic expectations of what scientific results imply.

Synthesis of Optimal Processing Pathway for Microalgae-based Biorefinery under Uncertainty

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rizwan, Muhammad; Lee, Jay H.; Gani, Rafiqul

2015-01-01

decision making, we propose a systematic framework for the synthesis and optimal design of microalgae-based processing network under uncertainty. By incorporating major uncertainties into the biorefinery superstructure model we developed previously, a stochastic mixed integer nonlinear programming (s......The research in the field of microalgae-based biofuels and chemicals is in early phase of the development, and therefore a wide range of uncertainties exist due to inconsistencies among and shortage of technical information. In order to handle and address these uncertainties to ensure robust......MINLP) problem is formulated for determining the optimal biorefinery structure under given parameter uncertainties modelled as sampled scenarios. The solution to the sMINLP problem determines the optimal decisions with respect to processing technologies, material flows, and product portfolio in the presence...

42 CFR 82.19 - How will NIOSH address uncertainty about dose levels?

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... characterized with a probability distribution that accounts for the uncertainty of the estimate. This information will be used by DOL in the calculation of probability of causation, under HHS guidelines for... THE ENERGY EMPLOYEES OCCUPATIONAL ILLNESS COMPENSATION PROGRAM ACT OF 2000 Dose Reconstruction Process...

A New Framework for Quantifying Lidar Uncertainty

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Newman, Jennifer, F.; Clifton, Andrew; Bonin, Timothy A.; Churchfield, Matthew J.

2017-03-24

As wind turbine sizes increase and wind energy expands to more complex and remote sites, remote sensing devices such as lidars are expected to play a key role in wind resource assessment and power performance testing. The switch to remote sensing devices represents a paradigm shift in the way the wind industry typically obtains and interprets measurement data for wind energy. For example, the measurement techniques and sources of uncertainty for a remote sensing device are vastly different from those associated with a cup anemometer on a meteorological tower. Current IEC standards discuss uncertainty due to mounting, calibration, and classification of the remote sensing device, among other parameters. Values of the uncertainty are typically given as a function of the mean wind speed measured by a reference device. However, real-world experience has shown that lidar performance is highly dependent on atmospheric conditions, such as wind shear, turbulence, and aerosol content. At present, these conditions are not directly incorporated into the estimated uncertainty of a lidar device. In this presentation, we propose the development of a new lidar uncertainty framework that adapts to current flow conditions and more accurately represents the actual uncertainty inherent in lidar measurements under different conditions. In this new framework, sources of uncertainty are identified for estimation of the line-of-sight wind speed and reconstruction of the three-dimensional wind field. These sources are then related to physical processes caused by the atmosphere and lidar operating conditions. The framework is applied to lidar data from an operational wind farm to assess the ability of the framework to predict errors in lidar-measured wind speed.

Transportable Optical Lattice Clock with 7×10^{-17} Uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Koller, S B; Grotti, J; Vogt, St; Al-Masoudi, A; Dörscher, S; Häfner, S; Sterr, U; Lisdat, Ch

2017-02-17

We present a transportable optical clock (TOC) with ^{87}Sr. Its complete characterization against a stationary lattice clock resulted in a systematic uncertainty of 7.4×10^{-17}, which is currently limited by the statistics of the determination of the residual lattice light shift, and an instability of 1.3×10^{-15}/sqrt[τ] with an averaging time τ in seconds. Measurements confirm that the systematic uncertainty can be reduced to below the design goal of 1×10^{-17}. To our knowledge, these are the best uncertainties and instabilities reported for any transportable clock to date. For autonomous operation, the TOC has been installed in an air-conditioned car trailer. It is suitable for chronometric leveling with submeter resolution as well as for intercontinental cross-linking of optical clocks, which is essential for a redefinition of the International System of Units (SI) second. In addition, the TOC will be used for high precision experiments for fundamental science that are commonly tied to precise frequency measurements and its development is an important step to space-borne optical clocks.

Transportable Optical Lattice Clock with 7 ×10-17 Uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Koller, S. B.; Grotti, J.; Vogt, St.; Al-Masoudi, A.; Dörscher, S.; Häfner, S.; Sterr, U.; Lisdat, Ch.

2017-02-01

We present a transportable optical clock (TOC) with Sr 87 . Its complete characterization against a stationary lattice clock resulted in a systematic uncertainty of 7.4 ×10-17, which is currently limited by the statistics of the determination of the residual lattice light shift, and an instability of 1.3 ×10-15/√{τ } with an averaging time τ in seconds. Measurements confirm that the systematic uncertainty can be reduced to below the design goal of 1 ×10-17. To our knowledge, these are the best uncertainties and instabilities reported for any transportable clock to date. For autonomous operation, the TOC has been installed in an air-conditioned car trailer. It is suitable for chronometric leveling with submeter resolution as well as for intercontinental cross-linking of optical clocks, which is essential for a redefinition of the International System of Units (SI) second. In addition, the TOC will be used for high precision experiments for fundamental science that are commonly tied to precise frequency measurements and its development is an important step to space-borne optical clocks.

Probabilistic surface reconstruction from multiple data sets: An example for the Australian Moho

Science.gov (United States)

Bodin, T.; Salmon, M.; Kennett, B. L. N.; Sambridge, M.

2012-10-01

Interpolation of spatial data is a widely used technique across the Earth sciences. For example, the thickness of the crust can be estimated by different active and passive seismic source surveys, and seismologists reconstruct the topography of the Moho by interpolating these different estimates. Although much research has been done on improving the quantity and quality of observations, the interpolation algorithms utilized often remain standard linear regression schemes, with three main weaknesses: (1) the level of structure in the surface, or smoothness, has to be predefined by the user; (2) different classes of measurements with varying and often poorly constrained uncertainties are used together, and hence it is difficult to give appropriate weight to different data types with standard algorithms; (3) there is typically no simple way to propagate uncertainties in the data to uncertainty in the estimated surface. Hence the situation can be expressed by Mackenzie (2004): "We use fantastic telescopes, the best physical models, and the best computers. The weak link in this chain is interpreting our data using 100 year old mathematics". Here we use recent developments made in Bayesian statistics and apply them to the problem of surface reconstruction. We show how the reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (rj-McMC) algorithm can be used to let the degree of structure in the surface be directly determined by the data. The solution is described in probabilistic terms, allowing uncertainties to be fully accounted for. The method is illustrated with an application to Moho depth reconstruction in Australia.

Uncertainty in Simulating Wheat Yields Under Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Jones, J. W.; Hatfield, J. W.; Ruane, A. C.; Boote, K. J.; Thornburn, P. J.; Rotter, R. P.; Cammarano, D.;

The use of perturbed physics ensembles and emulation in palaeoclimate reconstruction (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Edwards, T. L.; Rougier, J.; Collins, M.

2010-12-01

Climate is a coherent process, with correlations and dependencies across space, time, and climate variables. However, reconstructions of palaeoclimate traditionally consider individual pieces of information independently, rather than making use of this covariance structure. Such reconstructions are at risk of being unphysical or at least implausible. Climate simulators such as General Circulation Models (GCMs), on the other hand, contain climate system theory in the form of dynamical equations describing physical processes, but are imperfect and computationally expensive. These two datasets - pointwise palaeoclimate reconstructions and climate simulator evaluations - contain complementary information, and a statistical synthesis can produce a palaeoclimate reconstruction that combines them while not ignoring their limitations. We use an ensemble of simulators with perturbed parameterisations, to capture the uncertainty about the simulator variant, and our method also accounts for structural uncertainty. The resulting reconstruction contains a full expression of climate uncertainty, not just pointwise but also jointly over locations. Such joint information is crucial in determining spatially extensive features such as isotherms, or the location of the tree-line. A second outcome of the statistical analysis is a refined distribution for the simulator parameters. In this way, information from palaeoclimate observations can be used directly in quantifying uncertainty in future climate projections. The main challenge is the expense of running a large scale climate simulator: each evaluation of an atmosphere-ocean GCM takes several months of computing time. The solution is to interpret the ensemble of evaluations within an 'emulator', which is a statistical model of the simulator. This technique has been used fruitfully in the statistical field of Computer Models for two decades, and has recently been applied in estimating uncertainty in future climate predictions in the

Assignment of uncertainties to scientific data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Froehner, F.H.

1994-01-01

Long-standing problems of uncertainty assignment to scientific data came into a sharp focus in recent years when uncertainty information ('covariance files') had to be added to application-oriented large libraries of evaluated nuclear data such as ENDF and JEF. Question arouse about the best way to express uncertainties, the meaning of statistical and systematic errors, the origin of correlation and construction of covariance matrices, the combination of uncertain data from different sources, the general usefulness of results that are strictly valid only for Gaussian or only for linear statistical models, etc. Conventional statistical theory is often unable to give unambiguous answers, and tends to fail when statistics is bad so that prior information becomes crucial. Modern probability theory, on the other hand, incorporating decision information becomes group-theoretic results, is shown to provide straight and unique answers to such questions, and to deal easily with prior information and small samples. (author). 10 refs

Tissue engineering of ligaments for reconstructive surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Hogan, MaCalus V; Kawakami, Yohei; Murawski, Christopher D; Fu, Freddie H

2015-05-01

The use of musculoskeletal bioengineering and regenerative medicine applications in orthopaedic surgery has continued to evolve. The aim of this systematic review was to address tissue-engineering strategies for knee ligament reconstruction. A systematic review of PubMed/Medline using the terms "knee AND ligament" AND "tissue engineering" OR "regenerative medicine" was performed. Two authors performed the search, independently assessed the studies for inclusion, and extracted the data for inclusion in the review. Both preclinical and clinical studies were reviewed, and the articles deemed most relevant were included in this article to provide relevant basic science and recent clinical translational knowledge concerning "tissue-engineering" strategies currently used in knee ligament reconstruction. A total of 224 articles were reviewed in our initial PubMed search. Non-English-language studies were excluded. Clinical and preclinical studies were identified, and those with a focus on knee ligament tissue-engineering strategies including stem cell-based therapies, growth factor administration, hybrid biomaterial, and scaffold development, as well as mechanical stimulation modalities, were reviewed. The body of knowledge surrounding tissue-engineering strategies for ligament reconstruction continues to expand. Presently, various tissue-engineering techniques have some potential advantages, including faster recovery, better ligamentization, and possibly, a reduction of recurrence. Preclinical research of these novel therapies continues to provide promising results. There remains a need for well-designed, high-powered comparative clinical studies to serve as a foundation for successful translation into the clinical setting going forward. Level IV, systematic review of Level IV studies. Copyright © 2015 Arthroscopy Association of North America. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reducing the top quark mass uncertainty with jet grooming

Science.gov (United States)

Andreassen, Anders; Schwartz, Matthew D.

2017-10-01

The measurement of the top quark mass has large systematic uncertainties coming from the Monte Carlo simulations that are used to match theory and experiment. We explore how much that uncertainty can be reduced by using jet grooming procedures. Using the ATLAS A14 tunes of pythia, we estimate the uncertainty from the choice of tuning parameters in what is meant by the Monte Carlo mass to be around 530 MeV without any corrections. This uncertainty can be reduced by 60% to 200 MeV by calibrating to the W mass and by 70% to 140 MeV by additionally applying soft-drop jet grooming (or to 170 MeV using trimming). At e + e - colliders, the associated uncertainty is around 110 MeV, reducing to 50 MeV after calibrating to the W mass. By analyzing the tuning parameters, we conclude that the importance of jet grooming after calibrating to the W -mass is to reduce sensitivity to the underlying event.

Development of a Dynamic Lidar Uncertainty Framework

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Newman, Jennifer [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Clifton, Andrew [WindForS; Bonin, Timothy [CIRES/NOAA ESRL; Choukulkar, Aditya [CIRES/NOAA ESRL; Brewer, W. Alan [NOAA ESRL; Delgado, Ruben [University of Maryland Baltimore County

2017-08-07

As wind turbine sizes increase and wind energy expands to more complex and remote sites, remote-sensing devices such as lidars are expected to play a key role in wind resource assessment and power performance testing. The switch to remote-sensing devices represents a paradigm shift in the way the wind industry typically obtains and interprets measurement data for wind energy. For example, the measurement techniques and sources of uncertainty for a remote-sensing device are vastly different from those associated with a cup anemometer on a meteorological tower. Current IEC standards for quantifying remote sensing device uncertainty for power performance testing consider uncertainty due to mounting, calibration, and classification of the remote sensing device, among other parameters. Values of the uncertainty are typically given as a function of the mean wind speed measured by a reference device and are generally fixed, leading to climatic uncertainty values that apply to the entire measurement campaign. However, real-world experience and a consideration of the fundamentals of the measurement process have shown that lidar performance is highly dependent on atmospheric conditions, such as wind shear, turbulence, and aerosol content. At present, these conditions are not directly incorporated into the estimated uncertainty of a lidar device. In this presentation, we describe the development of a new dynamic lidar uncertainty framework that adapts to current flow conditions and more accurately represents the actual uncertainty inherent in lidar measurements under different conditions. In this new framework, sources of uncertainty are identified for estimation of the line-of-sight wind speed and reconstruction of the three-dimensional wind field. These sources are then related to physical processes caused by the atmosphere and lidar operating conditions. The framework is applied to lidar data from a field measurement site to assess the ability of the framework to predict

Jet Energy Scale Uncertainties in ATLAS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barillari, Teresa

2012-01-01

The first proton-proton collisions at a centre of mass energy of √s = 7TeV have been used by the ATLAS experiment to achieve an accuracy of the jet energy measurement between 2% and 4% for jets transverse momenta between 20 GeV and 2TeV and in the absolute pseudorapidity range up to 4.5. The jet energy scale uncertainty is derived from measurements in situ of the calorimeter single response to hadrons together with systematic variations in the Monte Carlo simulation. The transverse momentum balance between a central and a forward jet in events with two high transverse momenta jets is used to set the jet energy uncertainty in the forward region. The obtained uncertainty is confirmed by in-situ measurements. Jets in the TeV energy range have been tested using a system of well calibrated jets at low transverse momenta against high transverse momenta jets. A further reduction of the jet energy scale uncertainty between 1% and 2% for jets transverse momenta above 30 GeV has been achieved using data from the 2011 run based on an integrated luminosity of 5 fb −1 .

Uncertainties in scaling factors for ab initio vibrational zero-point energies

Science.gov (United States)

Irikura, Karl K.; Johnson, Russell D.; Kacker, Raghu N.; Kessel, Rüdiger

2009-03-01

Vibrational zero-point energies (ZPEs) determined from ab initio calculations are often scaled by empirical factors. An empirical scaling factor partially compensates for the effects arising from vibrational anharmonicity and incomplete treatment of electron correlation. These effects are not random but are systematic. We report scaling factors for 32 combinations of theory and basis set, intended for predicting ZPEs from computed harmonic frequencies. An empirical scaling factor carries uncertainty. We quantify and report, for the first time, the uncertainties associated with scaling factors for ZPE. The uncertainties are larger than generally acknowledged; the scaling factors have only two significant digits. For example, the scaling factor for B3LYP/6-31G(d) is 0.9757±0.0224 (standard uncertainty). The uncertainties in the scaling factors lead to corresponding uncertainties in predicted ZPEs. The proposed method for quantifying the uncertainties associated with scaling factors is based upon the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement, published by the International Organization for Standardization. We also present a new reference set of 60 diatomic and 15 polyatomic "experimental" ZPEs that includes estimated uncertainties.

Introducing uncertainty analysis of nucleation and crystal growth models in Process Analytical Technology (PAT) system design of crystallization processes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Abdul Samad, Noor Asma Fazli Bin; Sin, Gürkan; Gernaey, Krist

2013-01-01

This paper presents the application of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis as part of a systematic modelbased process monitoring and control (PAT) system design framework for crystallization processes. For the uncertainty analysis, the Monte Carlo procedure is used to propagate input uncertainty...

Judgment under emotional certainty and uncertainty: the effects of specific emotions on information processing.

Science.gov (United States)

Tiedens, L Z; Linton, S

2001-12-01

The authors argued that emotions characterized by certainty appraisals promote heuristic processing, whereas emotions characterized by uncertainty appraisals result in systematic processing. The 1st experiment demonstrated that the certainty associated with an emotion affects the certainty experienced in subsequent situations. The next 3 experiments investigated effects on processing of emotions associated with certainty and uncertainty. Compared with emotions associated with uncertainty, emotions associated with certainty resulted in greater reliance on the expertise of a source of a persuasive message in Experiment 2, more stereotyping in Experiment 3, and less attention to argument quality in Experiment 4. In contrast to previous theories linking valence and processing, these findings suggest that the certainty appraisal content of emotions is also important in determining whether people engage in systematic or heuristic processing.

Using spatial uncertainty to manipulate the size of the attention focus

OpenAIRE

Huang, Dan; Xue, Linyan; Wang, Xin; Chen, Yao

2016-01-01

Preferentially processing behaviorally relevant information is vital for primate survival. In visuospatial attention studies, manipulating the spatial extent of attention focus is an important question. Although many studies have claimed to successfully adjust attention field size by either varying the uncertainty about the target location (spatial uncertainty) or adjusting the size of the cue orienting the attention focus, no systematic studies have assessed and compared the effectiveness of...

Tissue engineering for human urethral reconstruction: systematic review of recent literature.

Science.gov (United States)

de Kemp, Vincent; de Graaf, Petra; Fledderus, Joost O; Ruud Bosch, J L H; de Kort, Laetitia M O

2015-01-01

Techniques to treat urethral stricture and hypospadias are restricted, as substitution of the unhealthy urethra with tissue from other origins (skin, bladder or buccal mucosa) has some limitations. Therefore, alternative sources of tissue for use in urethral reconstructions are considered, such as ex vivo engineered constructs. To review recent literature on tissue engineering for human urethral reconstruction. A search was made in the PubMed and Embase databases restricted to the last 25 years and the English language. A total of 45 articles were selected describing the use of tissue engineering in urethral reconstruction. The results are discussed in four groups: autologous cell cultures, matrices/scaffolds, cell-seeded scaffolds, and clinical results of urethral reconstructions using these materials. Different progenitor cells were used, isolated from either urine or adipose tissue, but slightly better results were obtained with in vitro expansion of urothelial cells from bladder washings, tissue biopsies from the bladder (urothelium) or the oral cavity (buccal mucosa). Compared with a synthetic scaffold, a biological scaffold has the advantage of bioactive extracellular matrix proteins on its surface. When applied clinically, a non-seeded matrix only seems suited for use as an onlay graft. When a tubularized substitution is the aim, a cell-seeded construct seems more beneficial. Considerable experience is available with tissue engineering of urethral tissue in vitro, produced with cells of different origin. Clinical and in vivo experiments show promising results.

The use of robotics in plastic and reconstructive surgery: A systematic review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jean Nehme

2017-09-01

Conclusions: Robot-assisted plastic and reconstructive surgery provides clinical outcomes comparable to conventional techniques. Advantages include reported improved cosmesis, functional outcomes and greater surgeon comfort. Disadvantages included longer operating and set-up times, a learning curve, breaking of microneedles, high monetary costs and authors consistently recommended improved end-effectors. All authors were optimistic about the use of robotics in plastic and reconstructive surgery.

Three-dimensional reconstructions for asymptomatic and cerebral palsy children's lower limbs using a biplanar X-ray system: A feasibility study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Assi, Ayman, E-mail: ayman.assi@gmail.com [Laboratoire de Biomécanique, Arts et Métiers ParisTech, Paris (France); Laboratory of Biomechanics, Faculty of Medicine, University of Saint-Joseph, Beirut (Lebanon); Gait and Motion Analysis Lab, SESOBEL, Beirut (Lebanon); Chaibi, Yasmina, E-mail: yasmina.chaibi@gmail.com [Laboratoire de Biomécanique, Arts et Métiers ParisTech, Paris (France); Presedo, Ana, E-mail: a.presedo@gmail.com [Laboratoire de Biomécanique, Arts et Métiers ParisTech, Paris (France); Hôpital Robert Debré, Paris (France); Dubousset, Jean, E-mail: jean.dubousset@wanadoo.fr [Laboratoire de Biomécanique, Arts et Métiers ParisTech, Paris (France); Ghanem, Ismat, E-mail: ghanem.i@dm.net.lb [Laboratory of Biomechanics, Faculty of Medicine, University of Saint-Joseph, Beirut (Lebanon); Gait and Motion Analysis Lab, SESOBEL, Beirut (Lebanon); Hôpital Hôtel Dieu de France, Beirut (Lebanon); Skalli, Wafa, E-mail: wafa.skalli@ensam.eu [Laboratoire de Biomécanique, Arts et Métiers ParisTech, Paris (France)

2013-12-01

The aim of this study is to explore the feasibility of 3D subject-specific skeletal reconstructions of lower limb in children using stereoradiography, and to assess uncertainty of clinical and anatomical parameters for children with cerebral palsy and for healthy children. The stereoradiography technique, using the EOS{sup ®} system (Eos-imaging{sup ®}), is based on the acquisition of two simultaneous digital anteroposterior and lateral X-rays, from head to feet in standing position and at low radiation dose. This technique allows subject-specific skeletal 3D reconstructions. Five children with cerebral palsy (CP) and 5 typically developing children (TD) were included in the study. Two operators performed the lower limb reconstructions twice. Tridimensional reconstructions were feasible for children over the age of 5 years. The study of reproducibility of anatomical parameters defining skeletal alignment showed uncertainties under 3° for the neck shaft angle, the femoral mechanical angle, and for the femoral and tibial torsions. The maximum degree of uncertainty was obtained for the femoral tibial rotation (4° for healthy children and 3.5° for children with CP)

Three-dimensional reconstructions for asymptomatic and cerebral palsy children's lower limbs using a biplanar X-ray system: A feasibility study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Assi, Ayman; Chaibi, Yasmina; Presedo, Ana; Dubousset, Jean; Ghanem, Ismat; Skalli, Wafa

2013-01-01

The aim of this study is to explore the feasibility of 3D subject-specific skeletal reconstructions of lower limb in children using stereoradiography, and to assess uncertainty of clinical and anatomical parameters for children with cerebral palsy and for healthy children. The stereoradiography technique, using the EOS ® system (Eos-imaging ® ), is based on the acquisition of two simultaneous digital anteroposterior and lateral X-rays, from head to feet in standing position and at low radiation dose. This technique allows subject-specific skeletal 3D reconstructions. Five children with cerebral palsy (CP) and 5 typically developing children (TD) were included in the study. Two operators performed the lower limb reconstructions twice. Tridimensional reconstructions were feasible for children over the age of 5 years. The study of reproducibility of anatomical parameters defining skeletal alignment showed uncertainties under 3° for the neck shaft angle, the femoral mechanical angle, and for the femoral and tibial torsions. The maximum degree of uncertainty was obtained for the femoral tibial rotation (4° for healthy children and 3.5° for children with CP)

Outcomes and complications following graft reconstruction for anterior sternoclavicular joint instability.

Science.gov (United States)

Willinger, Lukas; Schanda, Jakob; Herbst, Elmar; Imhoff, Andreas B; Martetschläger, Frank

2016-12-01

Publications describing tendon graft reconstruction for anterior sternoclavicular joint (SCJ) instability are rare and usually refer to small patient numbers. The aim of this study was to systematically review the literature regarding outcomes and complications following tendon graft reconstruction techniques for anterior SCJ instability. An online database was systematically searched to identify studies on graft reconstruction for anterior SCJ instability. Reported outcome scores were graded as excellent, good, fair and poor to summarize the study results. All reported complications were recorded. Five articles with a total of 80 patients met the inclusion criteria. Reported outcomes were excellent in 10 %, good in 89 % and fair in 1 %. Recurrent instability was found in 10 % of the patients, and 5 % underwent revision surgery due to persistent impairment of shoulder function related to SCJ instability or osteoarthritis. Surgical stabilization techniques for the SCJ using autologous tendon grafts have shown to be safe and reliable and make better patients' pain situation and shoulder function. However, a certain amount of impairment might persist, which needs to be discussed with patients. Severe complications were rare and revision rates were as low as 5 %. Therefore, graft reconstruction techniques should be considered for patients with chronic anterior SCJ instability after a course of failed conservative treatment. This study is valuable for clinicians in daily clinical practice when dealing with this difficult-to-treat pathology and can help surgeons to better predict the clinical outcomes and complications following SCJ graft reconstruction. It should, however, not lead to underestimation of the potential risks of the procedure. Systematic review, Level IV.

Uncertainty and sensitivity studies supporting the interpretation of the results of TVO I/II PRA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holmberg, J.

1992-01-01

A comprehensive Level 1 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has been performed for the TVO I/II nuclear power units. As a part of the PRA project, uncertainties of risk models and methods were systematically studied in order to describe them and to demonstrate their impact by way of results. The uncertainty study was divided into two phases: a qualitative and a quantitative study. The qualitative study contained identification of uncertainties and qualitative assessments of their importance. The PRA was introduced, and identified assumptions and uncertainties behind the models were documented. The most significant uncertainties were selected by importance measures or other judgements for further quantitative studies. The quantitative study included sensitivity studies and propagation of uncertainty ranges. In the sensitivity studies uncertain assumptions or parameters were varied in order to illustrate the sensitivity of the models. The propagation of the uncertainty ranges demonstrated the impact of the statistical uncertainties of the parameter values. The Monte Carlo method was used as a propagation method. The most significant uncertainties were those involved in modelling human interactions, dependences and common cause failures (CCFs), loss of coolant accident (LOCA) frequencies and pressure suppression. The qualitative mapping out of the uncertainty factors turned out to be useful in planning quantitative studies. It also served as internal review of the assumptions made in the PRA. The sensitivity studies were perhaps the most advantageous part of the quantitative study because they allowed individual analyses of the significance of uncertainty sources identified. The uncertainty study was found reasonable in systematically and critically assessing uncertainties in a risk analysis. The usefulness of this study depends on the decision maker (power company) since uncertainty studies are primarily carried out to support decision making when uncertainties are

Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.

Science.gov (United States)

Tversky, A; Kahneman, D

1974-09-27

This article described three heuristics that are employed in making judgements under uncertainty: (i) representativeness, which is usually employed when people are asked to judge the probability that an object or event A belongs to class or process B; (ii) availability of instances or scenarios, which is often employed when people are asked to assess the frequency of a class or the plausibility of a particular development; and (iii) adjustment from an anchor, which is usually employed in numerical prediction when a relevant value is available. These heuristics are highly economical and usually effective, but they lead to systematic and predictable errors. A better understanding of these heuristics and of the biases to which they lead could improve judgements and decisions in situations of uncertainty.

On the reconstruction of palaeo-ice sheets: Recent advances and future challenges

Science.gov (United States)

Stokes, Chris R.; Tarasov, Lev; Blomdin, Robin; Cronin, Thomas M.; Fisher, Timothy G.; Gyllencreutz, Richard; Hattestrand, Clas; Heyman, Jakob; Hindmarsh, Richard C. A.; Hughes, Anna L. C.; Jakobsson, Martin; Kirchner, Nina; Livingstone, Stephen J.; Margold, Martin; Murton, Julian B.; Noormets, Riko; Peltier, W. Richard; Peteet, Dorothy M.; Piper, David J. W.; Preusser, Frank; Renssen, Hans; Roberts, David H.; Roche, Didier M.; Saint-Ange, Francky; Stroeven, Arjen P.; Teller, James T.

2015-01-01

Reconstructing the growth and decay of palaeo-ice sheets is critical to understanding mechanisms of global climate change and associated sea-level fluctuations in the past, present and future. The significance of palaeo-ice sheets is further underlined by the broad range of disciplines concerned with reconstructing their behaviour, many of which have undergone a rapid expansion since the 1980s. In particular, there has been a major increase in the size and qualitative diversity of empirical data used to reconstruct and date ice sheets, and major improvements in our ability to simulate their dynamics in numerical ice sheet models. These developments have made it increasingly necessary to forge interdisciplinary links between sub-disciplines and to link numerical modelling with observations and dating of proxy records. The aim of this paper is to evaluate recent developments in the methods used to reconstruct ice sheets and outline some key challenges that remain, with an emphasis on how future work might integrate terrestrial and marine evidence together with numerical modelling. Our focus is on pan-ice sheet reconstructions of the last deglaciation, but regional case studies are used to illustrate methodological achievements, challenges and opportunities. Whilst various disciplines have made important progress in our understanding of ice-sheet dynamics, it is clear that data-model integration remains under-used, and that uncertainties remain poorly quantified in both empirically-based and numerical ice-sheet reconstructions. The representation of past climate will continue to be the largest source of uncertainty for numerical modelling. As such, palaeo-observations are critical to constrain and validate modelling. State-of-the-art numerical models will continue to improve both in model resolution and in the breadth of inclusion of relevant processes, thereby enabling more accurate and more direct comparison with the increasing range of palaeo-observations. Thus

Bayesian hierarchical models for regional climate reconstructions of the last glacial maximum

Science.gov (United States)

Weitzel, Nils; Hense, Andreas; Ohlwein, Christian

2017-04-01

Spatio-temporal reconstructions of past climate are important for the understanding of the long term behavior of the climate system and the sensitivity to forcing changes. Unfortunately, they are subject to large uncertainties, have to deal with a complex proxy-climate structure, and a physically reasonable interpolation between the sparse proxy observations is difficult. Bayesian Hierarchical Models (BHMs) are a class of statistical models that is well suited for spatio-temporal reconstructions of past climate because they permit the inclusion of multiple sources of information (e.g. records from different proxy types, uncertain age information, output from climate simulations) and quantify uncertainties in a statistically rigorous way. BHMs in paleoclimatology typically consist of three stages which are modeled individually and are combined using Bayesian inference techniques. The data stage models the proxy-climate relation (often named transfer function), the process stage models the spatio-temporal distribution of the climate variables of interest, and the prior stage consists of prior distributions of the model parameters. For our BHMs, we translate well-known proxy-climate transfer functions for pollen to a Bayesian framework. In addition, we can include Gaussian distributed local climate information from preprocessed proxy records. The process stage combines physically reasonable spatial structures from prior distributions with proxy records which leads to a multivariate posterior probability distribution for the reconstructed climate variables. The prior distributions that constrain the possible spatial structure of the climate variables are calculated from climate simulation output. We present results from pseudoproxy tests as well as new regional reconstructions of temperatures for the last glacial maximum (LGM, ˜ 21,000 years BP). These reconstructions combine proxy data syntheses with information from climate simulations for the LGM that were

Systematic Uncertainties in Black Hole Masses Determined from Single Epoch Spectra

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Denney, Kelly D.; Peterson, Bradley M.; Dietrich, Matthias

2008-01-01

We explore the nature of systematic errors that can arise in measurement of black hole masses from single-epoch spectra of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) by utilizing the many epochs available for NGC 5548 and PG1229+204 from reverberation mapping databases. In particular, we examine systematics due...

Early Inner Detector Tracking Performance in the 2015 data at $\\sqrt s$ = 13 TeV

CERN Document Server

The ATLAS collaboration

2015-01-01

This note summarises the studies undertaken to recommend benchmark values and systematic uncertainties for various aspects of the ATLAS Inner Detector tracking based on $\\sqrt{s}= 13$ TeV proton-proton collisions from the Large Hadron Collider Run 2 data. The track reconstruction efficiency, fake rate, and related systematic uncertainties are presented for two different track quality selections, along with the impact parameter resolution and the alignment weak mode systematic uncertainities. These recommendations apply to physics analyses using Inner Detector tracks in Run 2 data and are important inputs for other objects based on tracks.

Radiation dose and diagnostic image quality associated with iterative reconstruction in coronary CT angiography: A systematic review

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abdullah, Kamarul Amin; McEntee, Mark F.; Reed, Warren; Kench, Peter L.

2016-01-01

The aim of this systematic review is to evaluate the radiation dose reduction achieved using iterative reconstruction (IR) compared to filtered back projection (FBP) in coronary CT angiography (CCTA) and assess the impact on diagnostic image quality. A systematic search of seven electronic databases was performed to identify all studies using a developed keywords strategy. A total of 14 studies met the criteria and were included in a review analysis. The results showed that there was a significant reduction in radiation dose when using IR compared to FBP (P 0.05). The mean ± SD difference of image noise, signal-noise ratio (SNR) and contrast-noise ratio (CNR) were 1.05 ± 1.29 HU, 0.88 ± 0.56 and 0.63 ± 1.83 respectively. The mean ± SD percentages of overall image quality scores were 71.79 ± 12.29% (FBP) and 67.31 ± 22.96% (IR). The mean ± SD percentages of coronary segment analysis were 95.43 ± 2.57% (FBP) and 97.19 ± 2.62% (IR). In conclusion, this review analysis shows that CCTA with the use of IR leads to a significant reduction in radiation dose as compared to the use of FBP. Diagnostic image quality of IR at reduced dose (30–41%) is comparable to FBP at standard dose in the diagnosis of CAD.

Probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis -- Uncertainty assessment for deposited material and external doses. Volume 2: Appendices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Goossens, L.H.J.; Kraan, B.C.P.; Cooke, R.M. [Delft Univ. of Technology (Netherlands); Boardman, J. [AEA Technology (United Kingdom); Jones, J.A. [National Radiological Protection Board (United Kingdom); Harper, F.T.; Young, M.L. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

1997-12-01

The development of two new probabilistic accident consequence codes, MACCS and COSYMA, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the consequence from the accidental releases of radiological material from hypothesized accidents at nuclear installations. In 1991, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of the European Communities began cosponsoring a joint uncertainty analysis of the two codes. The ultimate objective of this joint effort was to systematically develop credible and traceable uncertainty distributions for the respective code input variables. A formal expert judgment elicitation and evaluation process was identified as the best technology available for developing a library of uncertainty distributions for these consequence parameters. This report focuses on the results of the study to develop distribution for variables related to the MACCS and COSYMA deposited material and external dose models. This volume contains appendices that include (1) a summary of the MACCS and COSYMA consequence codes, (2) the elicitation questionnaires and case structures, (3) the rationales and results for the panel on deposited material and external doses, (4) short biographies of the experts, and (5) the aggregated results of their responses.

Uncertainty quantification of CO2 emission reduction for maritime shipping

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yuan, Jun; Ng, Szu Hui; Sou, Weng Sut

2016-01-01

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has recently proposed several operational and technical measures to improve shipping efficiency and reduce the greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. The abatement potentials estimated for these measures have been further used by many organizations to project future GHG emission reductions and plot Marginal Abatement Cost Curves (MACC). However, the abatement potentials estimated for many of these measures can be highly uncertain as many of these measures are new, with limited sea trial information. Furthermore, the abatements obtained are highly dependent on ocean conditions, trading routes and sailing patterns. When the estimated abatement potentials are used for projections, these ‘input’ uncertainties are often not clearly displayed or accounted for, which can lead to overly optimistic or pessimistic outlooks. In this paper, we propose a methodology to systematically quantify and account for these input uncertainties on the overall abatement potential forecasts. We further propose improvements to MACCs to better reflect the uncertainties in marginal abatement costs and total emissions. This approach provides a fuller and more accurate picture of abatement forecasts and potential reductions achievable, and will be useful to policy makers and decision makers in the shipping industry to better assess the cost effective measures for CO 2 emission reduction. - Highlights: • We propose a systematic method to quantify uncertainty in emission reduction. • Marginal abatement cost curves are improved to better reflect the uncertainties. • Percentage reduction probability is given to determine emission reduction target. • The methodology is applied to a case study on maritime shipping.

Justification for recommended uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pronyaev, V.G.; Badikov, S.A.; Carlson, A.D.

2007-01-01

The uncertainties obtained in an earlier standards evaluation were considered to be unrealistically low by experts of the US Cross Section Evaluation Working Group (CSEWG). Therefore, the CSEWG Standards Subcommittee replaced the covariance matrices of evaluated uncertainties by expanded percentage errors that were assigned to the data over wide energy groups. There are a number of reasons that might lead to low uncertainties of the evaluated data: Underestimation of the correlations existing between the results of different measurements; The presence of unrecognized systematic uncertainties in the experimental data can lead to biases in the evaluated data as well as to underestimations of the resulting uncertainties; Uncertainties for correlated data cannot only be characterized by percentage uncertainties or variances. Covariances between evaluated value at 0.2 MeV and other points obtained in model (RAC R matrix and PADE2 analytical expansion) and non-model (GMA) fits of the 6 Li(n,t) TEST1 data and the correlation coefficients are presented and covariances between the evaluated value at 0.045 MeV and other points (along the line or column of the matrix) as obtained in EDA and RAC R matrix fits of the data available for reactions that pass through the formation of the 7 Li system are discussed. The GMA fit with the GMA database is shown for comparison. The following diagrams are discussed: Percentage uncertainties of the evaluated cross section for the 6 Li(n,t) reaction and the for the 235 U(n,f) reaction; estimation given by CSEWG experts; GMA result with full GMA database, including experimental data for the 6 Li(n,t), 6 Li(n,n) and 6 Li(n,total) reactions; uncertainties in the GMA combined fit for the standards; EDA and RAC R matrix results, respectively. Uncertainties of absolute and 252 Cf fission spectrum averaged cross section measurements, and deviations between measured and evaluated values for 235 U(n,f) cross-sections in the neutron energy range 1

Jet Energy Scale Uncertainties in ATLAS

CERN Document Server

Barillari, T; The ATLAS collaboration

2012-01-01

About one year after the first proton-proton collisions at a centre of mass energy of $sqrt(s) = 7,TeV$, the ATLAS experiment has achieved an accuracy of the jet energy measurement between $2-4%$ for jet transverse momenta from $20,GeV$ to $2,TeV$ in the pseudorapidity range up to $4.5$. The jet energy scale uncertainty is derived from in-situ single hadron response measurement along with systematic variations in the Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, the transverse momentum balance between a central and a forward jet in events with only two jets at high transverse momentum is used to set the jet energy uncertainty in the forward region. The obtained uncertainty is confirmed by in-situ measurements exploiting the transverse momentum balance between a jet and a well measured reference object like the photon transverse momentum in photon-jet events. Jets in the TeV-energy regime were tested using a system of well calibrated jets at low transverse momenta against a high-pt jet. Preliminary results from the 201...

Measurement uncertainties in science and technology

CERN Document Server

Grabe, Michael

2014-01-01

This book recasts the classical Gaussian error calculus from scratch, the inducements concerning both random and unknown systematic errors. The idea of this book is to create a formalism being fit to localize the true values of physical quantities considered – true with respect to the set of predefined physical units. Remarkably enough, the prevailingly practiced forms of error calculus do not feature this property which however proves in every respect, to be physically indispensable. The amended formalism, termed Generalized Gaussian Error Calculus by the author, treats unknown systematic errors as biases and brings random errors to bear via enhanced confidence intervals as laid down by students. The significantly extended second edition thoroughly restructures and systematizes the text as a whole and illustrates the formalism by numerous numerical examples. They demonstrate the basic principles of how to understand uncertainties to localize the true values of measured values - a perspective decisive in vi...

Correction of systematic behaviour in topographical surface analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Quagliotti, Danilo; Baruffi, Federico; Tosello, Guido

2016-01-01

Four specimens in the sub-micrometre range and with different polishing were topographically investigated in fiveareas over their respective surfaces. Uncertainties were evaluated with and without correction for systematicbehaviour and successively analysed by a design of experiment (DOE). Result...... showed that the correction forsystematic behaviour allowed for a lower value of the estimated uncertainty when the correction was adequate tocompletely recognise the systematic effects. If not, the correction can produce an overestimation of the uncertainty....

Evaluation of uncertainties in MUF for a LWR fuel fabrication plant. Pt.2 - Pt.4

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mennerdahl, D.

1984-09-01

MUF (Material Unaccounted For) is a parameter defined as the estimated loss of materials during a certain period of time. A suitable method for uncertainty and bias estimations has been developed. The method was specifically adjusted for a facility like the ASEA-ATOM fuel fabrication plant. Operations that are expected to contribute to the uncertainties have been compiled. Information that is required for the application of the developed method is described. Proposals for simplification of the required information without losing the accuracy are suggested. ASEA-ATOM had earlier determined uncertainty data for the scales that are used for nuclear materials. The statistical uncertainties included random errors, short-term and long-term systematic errors. Information for the determination of biases was also determined (constants and formulas). The method proposed by ASEA-ATOM for the determination of uncertainties due to the scales is compatible with the method proposed in this report. For other operations than weighing, the information from ASEA-ATOM is limited. Such operations are completely dominating the total uncertainty in MUF. Examples of calculations of uncertainties and bias are given for uranium oxide powders in large containers. Examples emphasize the differences between various statistical errors (random and systematic errors) and biases (known errors). The importance of correlations between different items in the inventories is explained. A specific correlation of great importance is the use of nominal factors (uranium concentration). A portable personal computer can be used to determine uncertainties in MUF. (author)

Performance of algorithms that reconstruct missing transverse momentum in √(s) = 8 TeV proton-proton collisions in the ATLAS detector

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Aad, G. [CPPM, Aix-Marseille Univ. et CNRS/IN2P3, Marseille (France); Abbott, B. [Oklahoma Univ., Norman, OK (United States). Homer L. Dodge Dept. of Physics and Astronomy; Abdallah, J. [Iowa Univ.,Iowa City, IA (United States); Collaboration: ATLAS Collaboration; and others

2017-04-15

The reconstruction and calibration algorithms used to calculate missing transverse momentum (E{sub T}{sup miss}) with the ATLAS detector exploit energy deposits in the calorimeter and tracks reconstructed in the inner detector as well as the muon spectrometer. Various strategies are used to suppress effects arising from additional proton-proton interactions, called pileup, concurrent with the hard-scatter processes. Tracking information is used to distinguish contributions from the pileup interactions using their vertex separation along the beam axis. The performance of the E{sub T}{sup miss} reconstruction algorithms, especially with respect to the amount of pileup, is evaluated using data collected in proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 8 TeV during 2012, and results are shown for a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 20.3 fb{sup -1}. The simulation and modelling of E{sub T}{sup miss} in events containing a Z boson decaying to two charged leptons (electrons or muons) or a W boson decaying to a charged lepton and a neutrino are compared to data. The acceptance for different event topologies, with and without high transverse momentum neutrinos, is shown for a range of threshold criteria for E{sub T}{sup miss}, and estimates of the systematic uncertainties in the E{sub T}{sup miss} measurements are presented. (orig.)

Prosthetic breast reconstruction: indications and update

Science.gov (United States)

Quinn, Tam T.; Miller, George S.; Rostek, Marie; Cabalag, Miguel S.; Rozen, Warren M.

2016-01-01

Background Despite 82% of patients reporting psychosocial improvement following breast reconstruction, only 33% patients choose to undergo surgery. Implant reconstruction outnumbers autologous reconstruction in many centres. Methods A systematic review of the literature was undertaken. Inclusion required: (I) Meta-analyses or review articles; (II) adult patients aged 18 years or over undergoing alloplastic breast reconstruction; (III) studies including outcome measures; (IV) case series with more than 10 patients; (V) English language; and (VI) publication after 1st January, 2000. Results After full text review, analysis and data extraction was conducted for a total of 63 articles. Definitive reconstruction with an implant can be immediate or delayed. Older patients have similar or even lower complication rates to younger patients. Complications include capsular contracture, hematoma and infection. Obesity, smoking, large breasts, diabetes and higher grade tumors are associated with increased risk of wound problems and reconstructive failure. Silicone implant patients have higher capsular contracture rates but have higher physical and psychosocial function. There were no associations made between silicone implants and cancer or systemic disease. There were no differences in outcomes or complications between round and shaped implants. Textured implants have a lower risk of capsular contracture than smooth implants. Smooth implants are more likely to be displaced as well as having higher rates of infection. Immediate breast reconstruction (IBR) gives the best aesthetic outcome if radiotherapy is not required but has a higher rate of capsular contracture and implant failure. Delayed-immediate reconstruction patients can achieve similar aesthetic results to IBR whilst preserving the breast skin if radiotherapy is required. Delayed breast reconstruction (DBR) patients have fewer complications than IBR patients. Conclusions Implant reconstruction is a safe and popular

Effect of atmospheric flux uncertainties on the determination of the neutrino mass hierarchy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sandroos Joakim

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The next generation of large-volume neutrino telescopes will include low-energy subarrays which will be able to measure neutrinos with energies of a few GeV. In this energy range the primary signal below the horizon is neutrinos created by cosmic ray interactions in the atmosphere. The measured event rate will depend on the neutrino mass hierarchy, allowing determination of this quantity to a significance level of about 3.5 sigma within a 5-year period, mostly limited by systematic uncertainties. We present here the impact of the uncertainties on the atmospheric neutrino flux normalization on the determination of the neutrino mass hierarchy. We suggest constraining the systematic uncertainties by including the downgoing neutrino sample, which will increase the significance. This work was performed using simulation data from the low-energy extension to the IceCube detector located at the geographic south pole, PINGU, and is relevant to a wide range of other experiments.

Imaging and quantification of anomaly volume using an eight-electrode 'hemiarray' EIT reconstruction method.

Science.gov (United States)

Sadleir, R J; Zhang, S U; Tucker, A S; Oh, Sungho

2008-08-01

Electrical impedance tomography (EIT) is particularly well-suited to applications where its portability, rapid acquisition speed and sensitivity give it a practical advantage over other monitoring or imaging systems. An EIT system's patient interface can potentially be adapted to match the target environment, and thereby increase its utility. It may thus be appropriate to use different electrode positions from those conventionally used in EIT in these cases. One application that may require this is the use of EIT on emergency medicine patients; in particular those who have suffered blunt abdominal trauma. In patients who have suffered major trauma, it is desirable to minimize the risk of spinal cord injury by avoiding lifting them. To adapt EIT to this requirement, we devised and evaluated a new electrode topology (the 'hemiarray') which comprises a set of eight electrodes placed only on the subject's anterior surface. Images were obtained using a two-dimensional sensitivity matrix and weighted singular value decomposition reconstruction. The hemiarray method's ability to quantify bleeding was evaluated by comparing its performance with conventional 2D reconstruction methods using data gathered from a saline phantom. We found that without applying corrections to reconstructed images it was possible to estimate blood volume in a two-dimensional hemiarray case with an uncertainty of around 27 ml. In an approximately 3D hemiarray case, volume prediction was possible with a maximum uncertainty of around 38 ml in the centre of the electrode plane. After application of a QI normalizing filter, average uncertainties in a two-dimensional hemiarray case were reduced to about 15 ml. Uncertainties in the approximate 3D case were reduced to about 30 ml.

Automated comparison of Bayesian reconstructions of experimental profiles with physical models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Irishkin, Maxim

2014-01-01

In this work we developed an expert system that carries out in an integrated and fully automated way i) a reconstruction of plasma profiles from the measurements, using Bayesian analysis ii) a prediction of the reconstructed quantities, according to some models and iii) an intelligent comparison of the first two steps. This system includes systematic checking of the internal consistency of the reconstructed quantities, enables automated model validation and, if a well-validated model is used, can be applied to help detecting interesting new physics in an experiment. The work shows three applications of this quite general system. The expert system can successfully detect failures in the automated plasma reconstruction and provide (on successful reconstruction cases) statistics of agreement of the models with the experimental data, i.e. information on the model validity. (author) [fr

Rehanging Reynolds at the British Institution: Methods for Reconstructing Ephemeral Displays

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Catherine Roach

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Reconstructions of historic exhibitions made with current technologies can present beguiling illusions, but they also put us in danger of recreating the past in our own image. This article and the accompanying reconstruction explore methods for representing lost displays, with an emphasis on visualizing uncertainty, illuminating process, and understanding the mediated nature of period images. These issues are highlighted in a partial recreation of a loan show held at the British Institution, London, in 1823, which featured the works of Sir Joshua Reynolds alongside continental old masters. This recreation demonstrates how speculative reconstructions can nonetheless shed light on ephemeral displays, revealing powerful visual and conceptual dialogues that took place on the crowded walls of nineteenth-century exhibitions.

Estimating uncertainty of inference for validation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Booker, Jane M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Langenbrunner, James R [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hemez, Francois M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Ross, Timothy J [UNM

2010-09-30

We present a validation process based upon the concept that validation is an inference-making activity. This has always been true, but the association has not been as important before as it is now. Previously, theory had been confirmed by more data, and predictions were possible based on data. The process today is to infer from theory to code and from code to prediction, making the role of prediction somewhat automatic, and a machine function. Validation is defined as determining the degree to which a model and code is an accurate representation of experimental test data. Imbedded in validation is the intention to use the computer code to predict. To predict is to accept the conclusion that an observable final state will manifest; therefore, prediction is an inference whose goodness relies on the validity of the code. Quantifying the uncertainty of a prediction amounts to quantifying the uncertainty of validation, and this involves the characterization of uncertainties inherent in theory/models/codes and the corresponding data. An introduction to inference making and its associated uncertainty is provided as a foundation for the validation problem. A mathematical construction for estimating the uncertainty in the validation inference is then presented, including a possibility distribution constructed to represent the inference uncertainty for validation under uncertainty. The estimation of inference uncertainty for validation is illustrated using data and calculations from Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF). The ICF measurements of neutron yield and ion temperature were obtained for direct-drive inertial fusion capsules at the Omega laser facility. The glass capsules, containing the fusion gas, were systematically selected with the intent of establishing a reproducible baseline of high-yield 10{sup 13}-10{sup 14} neutron output. The deuterium-tritium ratio in these experiments was varied to study its influence upon yield. This paper on validation inference is the

Return to Sport-Specific Performance After Primary Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction: A Systematic Review.

Science.gov (United States)

Mohtadi, Nicholas G; Chan, Denise S

2017-10-01

Physicians counseling athletes on the prognosis of sport-specific performance outcomes after anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction (ACLR) depend on the published literature. However, critical appraisal of the validity and biases in these studies is required to understand how ACLR affects an athlete's ability to return to sport, the athlete's sport-specific performance, and his or her ability to achieve preinjury levels of performance. This review identifies the published prognostic studies evaluating sport-specific performance outcomes after ACLR. A risk of bias assessment and summaries of return to sport and career longevity results are provided for each included study. Systematic review. Electronic databases (Ovid MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and PUBMED) were searched via a defined search strategy with no limits, to identify relevant studies for inclusion in the review. A priori defined eligibility criteria included studies measuring sport-specific performance within an athlete's sport, before and after primary ACLR. Reference lists of eligible studies were hand-searched for additional relevant studies. Data extraction was performed by use of a standardized spreadsheet. Each included study was assessed by use of 6 bias domains of the Quality in Prognosis Studies tool to critically appraise study participation, study attrition, prognostic factors, outcome measurement, confounders, and statistical analysis and reporting. Two authors independently performed each stage of the review and reached consensus through discussion. Fifteen pertinent prognostic studies evaluated sport-specific performance outcomes and/or return to play after ACLR for athletes participating in competitive soccer, football, ice hockey, basketball, Alpine ski, X-Games ski and snowboarding, and baseball. Twelve of these studies were considered to have a high level of bias. This review demonstrated that most high

Modelling Framework for the Identification of Critical Variables and Parameters under Uncertainty in the Bioethanol Production from Lignocellulose

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Morales Rodriguez, Ricardo; Meyer, Anne S.; Gernaey, Krist

2011-01-01

This study presents the development of a systematic modelling framework for identification of the most critical variables and parameters under uncertainty, evaluated on a lignocellulosic ethanol production case study. The systematic framework starts with: (1) definition of the objectives; (2......, suitable for further analysis of the bioprocess. The uncertainty and sensitivity analysis identified the following most critical variables and parameters involved in the lignocellulosic ethanol production case study. For the operating cost, the enzyme loading showed the strongest impact, while reaction...

Fukushima Daiichi Unit 1 Accident Progression Uncertainty Analysis and Implications for Decommissioning of Fukushima Reactors - Volume I.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gauntt, Randall O. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mattie, Patrick D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2016-01-01

Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) has conducted an uncertainty analysis (UA) on the Fukushima Daiichi unit (1F1) accident progression with the MELCOR code. The model used was developed for a previous accident reconstruction investigation jointly sponsored by the US Department of Energy (DOE) and Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). That study focused on reconstructing the accident progressions, as postulated by the limited plant data. This work was focused evaluation of uncertainty in core damage progression behavior and its effect on key figures-of-merit (e.g., hydrogen production, reactor damage state, fraction of intact fuel, vessel lower head failure). The primary intent of this study was to characterize the range of predicted damage states in the 1F1 reactor considering state of knowledge uncertainties associated with MELCOR modeling of core damage progression and to generate information that may be useful in informing the decommissioning activities that will be employed to defuel the damaged reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. Additionally, core damage progression variability inherent in MELCOR modeling numerics is investigated.

Constructing (un-)certainty: An exploration of journalistic decision-making in the reporting of neuroscience.

Science.gov (United States)

Lehmkuhl, Markus; Peters, Hans Peter

2016-11-01

Based on 21 individual case studies, this article inventories the ways journalism deals with scientific uncertainty. The study identifies the decisions that impact a journalist's perception of a truth claim as unambiguous or ambiguous and the strategies to deal with uncertainty that arise from this perception. Key for understanding journalistic action is the outcome of three evaluations: What is the story about? How shall the story be told? What type of story is it? We reconstructed the strategies to overcome journalistic decision-making uncertainty in those cases in which they perceived scientific contingency as a problem. Journalism deals with uncertainty by way of omission, by contrasting the conflicting messages or by acknowledging the problem via the structure or language. One finding deserves particular mention: The lack of focus on scientific uncertainty is not only a problem of how journalists perceive and communicate but also a problem of how science communicates. © The Author(s) 2016.

Effect of Uncertainties in Physical Property Estimates on Process Design - Sensitivity Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hukkerikar, Amol; Jones, Mark Nicholas; Sin, Gürkan

for performing sensitivity of process design subject to uncertainties in the property estimates. To this end, first uncertainty analysis of the property models of pure components and their mixtures was performed in order to obtain the uncertainties in the estimated property values. As a next step, sensitivity......Chemical process design calculations require accurate and reliable physical and thermodynamic property data and property models of pure components and their mixtures in order to obtain reliable design parameters which help to achieve desired specifications. The uncertainties in the property values...... can arise from the experiments itself or from the property models employed. It is important to consider the effect of these uncertainties on the process design in order to assess the quality and reliability of the final design. The main objective of this work is to develop a systematic methodology...

Intensity modulated radiation therapy for oropharyngeal cancer: the sensitivity of plan objectives and constraints to set-up uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ploquin, Nicolas; Song, William; Lau, Harold; Dunscombe, Peter

2005-01-01

The goal of this study was to assess the impact of set-up uncertainty on compliance with the objectives and constraints of an intensity modulated radiation therapy protocol for early stage cancer of the oropharynx. As the convolution approach to the quantitative study of set-up uncertainties cannot accommodate either surface contours or internal inhomogeneities, both of which are highly relevant to sites in the head and neck, we have employed the more resource intensive direct simulation method. The impact of both systematic (variable from 0 to 6 mm) and random (fixed at 2 mm) set-up uncertainties on compliance with the criteria of the RTOG H-0022 protocol has been examined for eight geometrically complex structures: CTV66 (gross tumour volume and palpable lymph nodes suspicious for metastases), CTV54 (lymph node groups or surgical neck levels at risk of subclinical metastases), glottic larynx, spinal cord, brainstem, mandible and left and right parotids. In a probability-based approach, both dose-volume histograms and equivalent uniform doses were used to describe the dose distributions achieved by plans for two patients, in the presence of set-up uncertainty. The equivalent uniform dose is defined to be that dose which, when delivered uniformly to the organ of interest, will lead to the same response as the non-uniform dose under consideration. For systematic set-up uncertainties greater than 2 mm and 5 mm respectively, coverage of the CTV66 and CTV54 could be significantly compromised. Directional sensitivity was observed in both cases. Most organs at risk (except the glottic larynx which did not comply under static conditions) continued to meet the dose constraints up to 4 mm systematic uncertainty for both plans. The exception was the contra lateral parotid gland, which this protocol is specifically designed to protect. Sensitivity to systematic set-up uncertainty of 2 mm was observed for this organ at risk in both clinical plans

Bayesian analysis for uncertainty estimation of a canopy transpiration model

Science.gov (United States)

Samanta, S.; Mackay, D. S.; Clayton, M. K.; Kruger, E. L.; Ewers, B. E.

2007-04-01

A Bayesian approach was used to fit a conceptual transpiration model to half-hourly transpiration rates for a sugar maple (Acer saccharum) stand collected over a 5-month period and probabilistically estimate its parameter and prediction uncertainties. The model used the Penman-Monteith equation with the Jarvis model for canopy conductance. This deterministic model was extended by adding a normally distributed error term. This extension enabled using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations to sample the posterior parameter distributions. The residuals revealed approximate conformance to the assumption of normally distributed errors. However, minor systematic structures in the residuals at fine timescales suggested model changes that would potentially improve the modeling of transpiration. Results also indicated considerable uncertainties in the parameter and transpiration estimates. This simple methodology of uncertainty analysis would facilitate the deductive step during the development cycle of deterministic conceptual models by accounting for these uncertainties while drawing inferences from data.

Functional Outcome and Graft Retention in Patients With Septic Arthritis After Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction: A Systematic Review.

Science.gov (United States)

Makhni, Eric C; Steinhaus, Michael E; Mehran, Nima; Schulz, Brian S; Ahmad, Christopher S

2015-07-01

To provide a comprehensive review of clinical and functional outcomes after treatment for septic arthritis after anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction. A systematic review of the literature was performed. Two reviewers assessed and confirmed the methodologic quality of each study. Studies that met the inclusion criteria were assessed for pertinent data, and when available, similar outcomes were combined to generate frequency-weighted means. Nineteen studies met the inclusion and exclusion criteria for this review, reporting on a total of 203 infected knees. The mean age was 27.5 years and the mean length of follow-up was 44.2 months, with male patients comprising 88% of the population. Hamstring and bone-patellar tendon-bone autografts were used in 63% and 33% of patients, respectively, with 78% of patients retaining their grafts. The studies reported mean flexion and extension deficits of 5.8° and 1.0°, respectively, and laxity testing showed a mean difference of 1.9 mm. The studies reported mean Lysholm, International Knee Documentation Committee, and Tegner scores of 82.1, 68.2, and 5.6, respectively. Of the patients, 83% reported an ability to return to activities of daily living whereas 67% reported a return to their preinjury level of athletics. Evidence of new degenerative changes was seen in 22% of patients. Septic arthritis after anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction remains a very infrequent event, affecting 0.5% of patients. On average, outcomes in these patients are comparable with those in patients in whom infection does not develop, including postoperative range of motion, residual instability, Lysholm scores, and return to preinjury level of activity. These patients do exhibit decreased International Knee Documentation Committee scores compared with patients without septic arthritis, however. The impact of this differential is not clear, but this scoring difference suggests that septic arthritis may be associated with more severe symptoms

Uncertainty principles for inverse source problems for electromagnetic and elastic waves

Science.gov (United States)

Griesmaier, Roland; Sylvester, John

2018-06-01

In isotropic homogeneous media, far fields of time-harmonic electromagnetic waves radiated by compactly supported volume currents, and elastic waves radiated by compactly supported body force densities can be modelled in very similar fashions. Both are projected restricted Fourier transforms of vector-valued source terms. In this work we generalize two types of uncertainty principles recently developed for far fields of scalar-valued time-harmonic waves in Griesmaier and Sylvester (2017 SIAM J. Appl. Math. 77 154–80) to this vector-valued setting. These uncertainty principles yield stability criteria and algorithms for splitting far fields radiated by collections of well-separated sources into the far fields radiated by individual source components, and for the restoration of missing data segments. We discuss proper regularization strategies for these inverse problems, provide stability estimates based on the new uncertainty principles, and comment on reconstruction schemes. A numerical example illustrates our theoretical findings.

Uncertainty of the calibration factor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-01-01

According to present definitions, an error is the difference between a measured value and the ''true'' value. Thus an error has both a numerical value and a sign. In contrast, the uncertainly associated with a measurement is a parameter that characterizes the dispersion of the values ''that could reasonably be attributed to the measurand''. This parameter is normally an estimated standard deviation. An uncertainty, therefore, has no known sign and is usually assumed to be symmetrical. It is a measure of our lack of exact knowledge, after all recognized ''systematic'' effects have been eliminated by applying appropriate corrections. If errors were known exactly, the true value could be determined and there would be no problem left. In reality, errors are estimated in the best possible way and corrections made for them. Therefore, after application of all known corrections, errors need no further consideration (their expectation value being zero) and the only quantities of interest are uncertainties. 3 refs, 2 figs

A global model for residential energy use: Uncertainty in calibration to regional data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

van Ruijven, Bas; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; de Vries, Bert; van der Sluijs, Jeroen P.

2010-01-01

Uncertainties in energy demand modelling allow for the development of different models, but also leave room for different calibrations of a single model. We apply an automated model calibration procedure to analyse calibration uncertainty of residential sector energy use modelling in the TIMER 2.0 global energy model. This model simulates energy use on the basis of changes in useful energy intensity, technology development (AEEI) and price responses (PIEEI). We find that different implementations of these factors yield behavioural model results. Model calibration uncertainty is identified as influential source for variation in future projections: amounting 30% to 100% around the best estimate. Energy modellers should systematically account for this and communicate calibration uncertainty ranges. (author)

Addressing Uncertainties in Cost Estimates for Decommissioning Nuclear Facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Benjamin, Serge; Descures, Sylvain; Du Pasquier, Louis; Francois, Patrice; Buonarotti, Stefano; Mariotti, Giovanni; Tarakonov, Jurij; Daniska, Vladimir; Bergh, Niklas; Carroll, Simon; AaSTRoeM, Annika; Cato, Anna; De La Gardie, Fredrik; Haenggi, Hannes; Rodriguez, Jose; Laird, Alastair; Ridpath, Andy; La Guardia, Thomas; O'Sullivan, Patrick; ); Weber, Inge; )

2017-01-01

The cost estimation process of decommissioning nuclear facilities has continued to evolve in recent years, with a general trend towards demonstrating greater levels of detail in the estimate and more explicit consideration of uncertainties, the latter of which may have an impact on decommissioning project costs. The 2012 report on the International Structure for Decommissioning Costing (ISDC) of Nuclear Installations, a joint recommendation by the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the European Commission, proposes a standardised structure of cost items for decommissioning projects that can be used either directly for the production of cost estimates or for mapping of cost items for benchmarking purposes. The ISDC, however, provides only limited guidance on the treatment of uncertainty when preparing cost estimates. Addressing Uncertainties in Cost Estimates for Decommissioning Nuclear Facilities, prepared jointly by the NEA and IAEA, is intended to complement the ISDC, assisting cost estimators and reviewers in systematically addressing uncertainties in decommissioning cost estimates. Based on experiences gained in participating countries and projects, the report describes how uncertainty and risks can be analysed and incorporated in decommissioning cost estimates, while presenting the outcomes in a transparent manner

Systematic in J-PARC/Hyper-K

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Minamino, Akihiro

2015-01-01

The Hyper-Kamiokande (Hyper-K) detector is a next generation underground water Chrenkov detector. The J-PARC to Hyper-K experiment has good potential for precision measurements of neutrino oscillation parameters and discovery reach for CP violation in the lepton sector. With a total exposure of 10 years to a neutrino beam produced by the 750 kW J-PARC proton synchrotron, it is expected that the CP phase δ can be determined to better than 18 degree for all possible values of δ if sin 2 2θ 13 > 0.03 and the mass hierarchy is known. Control of systematic uncertainties is critical to make maximum use of the Hyper-K potential. Based on learning from T2K experience, a strategy to reduce systematic uncertainties in J-PARC/Hyper-K are developed

Uncertainty management in integrated modelling, the IMAGE case

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van der Sluijs, J.P.

1995-01-01

Integrated assessment models of global environmental problems play an increasingly important role in decision making. This use demands a good insight regarding the reliability of these models. In this paper we analyze uncertainty management in the IMAGE-project (Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect). We use a classification scheme comprising type and source of uncertainty. Our analysis shows reliability analysis as main area for improvement. We briefly review a recently developed methodology, NUSAP (Numerical, Unit, Spread, Assessment and Pedigree), that systematically addresses the strength of data in terms of spread, reliability and scientific status (pedigree) of information. This approach is being tested through interviews with model builders. 3 tabs., 20 refs

Volume reconstruction optimization for tomo-PIV algorithms applied to experimental data

Science.gov (United States)

Martins, Fabio J. W. A.; Foucaut, Jean-Marc; Thomas, Lionel; Azevedo, Luis F. A.; Stanislas, Michel

2015-08-01

Tomographic PIV is a three-component volumetric velocity measurement technique based on the tomographic reconstruction of a particle distribution imaged by multiple camera views. In essence, the performance and accuracy of this technique is highly dependent on the parametric adjustment and the reconstruction algorithm used. Although synthetic data have been widely employed to optimize experiments, the resulting reconstructed volumes might not have optimal quality. The purpose of the present study is to offer quality indicators that can be applied to data samples in order to improve the quality of velocity results obtained by the tomo-PIV technique. The methodology proposed can potentially lead to significantly reduction in the time required to optimize a tomo-PIV reconstruction, also leading to better quality velocity results. Tomo-PIV data provided by a six-camera turbulent boundary-layer experiment were used to optimize the reconstruction algorithms according to this methodology. Velocity statistics measurements obtained by optimized BIMART, SMART and MART algorithms were compared with hot-wire anemometer data and velocity measurement uncertainties were computed. Results indicated that BIMART and SMART algorithms produced reconstructed volumes with equivalent quality as the standard MART with the benefit of reduced computational time.

Volume reconstruction optimization for tomo-PIV algorithms applied to experimental data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martins, Fabio J W A; Foucaut, Jean-Marc; Stanislas, Michel; Thomas, Lionel; Azevedo, Luis F A

2015-01-01

Tomographic PIV is a three-component volumetric velocity measurement technique based on the tomographic reconstruction of a particle distribution imaged by multiple camera views. In essence, the performance and accuracy of this technique is highly dependent on the parametric adjustment and the reconstruction algorithm used. Although synthetic data have been widely employed to optimize experiments, the resulting reconstructed volumes might not have optimal quality. The purpose of the present study is to offer quality indicators that can be applied to data samples in order to improve the quality of velocity results obtained by the tomo-PIV technique. The methodology proposed can potentially lead to significantly reduction in the time required to optimize a tomo-PIV reconstruction, also leading to better quality velocity results. Tomo-PIV data provided by a six-camera turbulent boundary-layer experiment were used to optimize the reconstruction algorithms according to this methodology. Velocity statistics measurements obtained by optimized BIMART, SMART and MART algorithms were compared with hot-wire anemometer data and velocity measurement uncertainties were computed. Results indicated that BIMART and SMART algorithms produced reconstructed volumes with equivalent quality as the standard MART with the benefit of reduced computational time. (paper)

Simultaneous EEG Source and Forward Model Reconstruction (SOFOMORE) using a Hierarchical Bayesian Approach

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stahlhut, Carsten; Mørup, Morten; Winther, Ole

2011-01-01

We present an approach to handle forward model uncertainty for EEG source reconstruction. A stochastic forward model representation is motivated by the many random contributions to the path from sources to measurements including the tissue conductivity distribution, the geometry of the cortical s...

A novel data processing technique for image reconstruction of penumbral imaging

Science.gov (United States)

Xie, Hongwei; Li, Hongyun; Xu, Zeping; Song, Guzhou; Zhang, Faqiang; Zhou, Lin

2011-06-01

CT image reconstruction technique was applied to the data processing of the penumbral imaging. Compared with other traditional processing techniques for penumbral coded pinhole image such as Wiener, Lucy-Richardson and blind technique, this approach is brand new. In this method, the coded aperture processing method was used for the first time independent to the point spread function of the image diagnostic system. In this way, the technical obstacles was overcome in the traditional coded pinhole image processing caused by the uncertainty of point spread function of the image diagnostic system. Then based on the theoretical study, the simulation of penumbral imaging and image reconstruction was carried out to provide fairly good results. While in the visible light experiment, the point source of light was used to irradiate a 5mm×5mm object after diffuse scattering and volume scattering. The penumbral imaging was made with aperture size of ~20mm. Finally, the CT image reconstruction technique was used for image reconstruction to provide a fairly good reconstruction result.

Status of XSUSA for sampling based nuclear data uncertainty and sensitivity analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zwermann, W.; Gallner, L.; Klein, M.; Krzydacz-Hausmann; Pasichnyk, I.; Pautz, A.; Velkov, K.

2013-01-01

In the present contribution, an overview of the sampling based XSUSA method for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis with respect to nuclear data is given. The focus is on recent developments and applications of XSUSA. These applications include calculations for critical assemblies, fuel assembly depletion calculations, and steady state as well as transient reactor core calculations. The analyses are partially performed in the framework of international benchmark working groups (UACSA - Uncertainty Analyses for Criticality Safety Assessment, UAM - Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling). It is demonstrated that particularly for full-scale reactor calculations the influence of the nuclear data uncertainties on the results can be substantial. For instance, for the radial fission rate distributions of mixed UO 2 /MOX light water reactor cores, the 2σ uncertainties in the core centre and periphery can reach values exceeding 10%. For a fast transient, the resulting time behaviour of the reactor power was covered by a wide uncertainty band. Overall, the results confirm the necessity of adding systematic uncertainty analyses to best-estimate reactor calculations. (authors)

Evaluation method for uncertainty of effective delayed neutron fraction βeff

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zukeran, Atsushi

1999-01-01

Uncertainty of effective delayed neutron fraction β eff is evaluated in terms of three quantities; uncertainties of the basic delayed neutron constants, energy dependence of delayed neutron yield ν d m , and the uncertainties of the fission cross sections of fuel elements. The uncertainty of β eff due to the delayed neutron yield is expressed by a linearized formula assuming that the delayed neutron yield does not depend on the incident energy, and the energy dependence is supplemented by using the detailed energy dependence proposed by D'Angelo and Filip. The third quantity, uncertainties of fission cross section, is evaluated on the basis of the generalized perturbation theory in relation to reaction rate rations such as central spectral indexes or average reaction rate ratios. Resultant uncertainty of β eff is about 4 to 5%s, in which primary factor is the delayed neutron yield, and the secondary one is the fission cross section uncertainty, especially for 238 U. The energy dependence of ν d m systematically reduces the magnitude of β eff about 1.4% to 1.7%, depending on the model of the energy vs. ν d m correlation curve. (author)

Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses in aging risk-based prioritizations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hassan, M.; Uryas'ev, S.; Vesely, W.E.

1993-01-01

Aging risk evaluations of nuclear power plants using Probabilistic Risk Analyses (PRAs) involve assessments of the impact of aging structures, systems, and components (SSCs) on plant core damage frequency (CDF). These assessments can be used to prioritize the contributors to aging risk reflecting the relative risk potential of the SSCs. Aging prioritizations are important for identifying the SSCs contributing most to plant risk and can provide a systematic basis on which aging risk control and management strategies for a plant can be developed. However, these prioritizations are subject to variabilities arising from uncertainties in data, and/or from various modeling assumptions. The objective of this paper is to present an evaluation of the sensitivity of aging prioritizations of active components to uncertainties in aging risk quantifications. Approaches for robust prioritization of SSCs also are presented which are less susceptible to the uncertainties

Do systematic reviews on pediatric topics need special methodological considerations?

OpenAIRE

Farid-Kapadia, Mufiza; Askie, Lisa; Hartling, Lisa; Contopoulos-Ioannidis, Despina; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.; Soll, Roger; Moher, David; Offringa, Martin

2017-01-01

Background Systematic reviews are key tools to enable decision making by healthcare providers and policymakers. Despite the availability of the evidence based Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA-2009 and PRISMA-P 2015) statements that were developed to improve the transparency and quality of reporting of systematic reviews, uncertainty on how to deal with pediatric-specific methodological challenges of systematic reviews impairs decision-making in child ...

Uncertainty quantification in nanomechanical measurements using the atomic force microscope

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wagner, Ryan; Raman, Arvind; Moon, Robert; Pratt, Jon; Shaw, Gordon

2011-01-01

Quantifying uncertainty in measured properties of nanomaterials is a prerequisite for the manufacture of reliable nanoengineered materials and products. Yet, rigorous uncertainty quantification (UQ) is rarely applied for material property measurements with the atomic force microscope (AFM), a widely used instrument that can measure properties at nanometer scale resolution of both inorganic and biological surfaces and nanomaterials. We present a framework to ascribe uncertainty to local nanomechanical properties of any nanoparticle or surface measured with the AFM by taking into account the main uncertainty sources inherent in such measurements. We demonstrate the framework by quantifying uncertainty in AFM-based measurements of the transverse elastic modulus of cellulose nanocrystals (CNCs), an abundant, plant-derived nanomaterial whose mechanical properties are comparable to Kevlar fibers. For a single, isolated CNC the transverse elastic modulus was found to have a mean of 8.1 GPa and a 95% confidence interval of 2.7–20 GPa. A key result is that multiple replicates of force–distance curves do not sample the important sources of uncertainty, which are systematic in nature. The dominant source of uncertainty is the nondimensional photodiode sensitivity calibration rather than the cantilever stiffness or Z-piezo calibrations. The results underscore the great need for, and open a path towards, quantifying and minimizing uncertainty in AFM-based material property measurements of nanoparticles, nanostructured surfaces, thin films, polymers and biomaterials.

Applying Bayesian neural networks to event reconstruction in reactor neutrino experiments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xu Ye; Xu Weiwei; Meng Yixiong; Zhu Kaien; Xu Wei

2008-01-01

A toy detector has been designed to simulate central detectors in reactor neutrino experiments in the paper. The electron samples from the Monte-Carlo simulation of the toy detector have been reconstructed by the method of Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) and the standard algorithm, a maximum likelihood method (MLD), respectively. The result of the event reconstruction using BNN has been compared with the one using MLD. Compared to MLD, the uncertainties of the electron vertex are not improved, but the energy resolutions are significantly improved using BNN. And the improvement is more obvious for the high energy electrons than the low energy ones

DO WE REALLY KNOW THE DUST? SYSTEMATICS AND UNCERTAINTIES OF THE MID-INFRARED SPECTRAL ANALYSIS METHODS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Juhasz, A.; Henning, Th.; Bouwman, J.; Dullemond, C. P.; Pascucci, I.; Apai, D.

2009-01-01

The spectral region around 10 μm, showing prominent emission bands from various dust species is commonly used for the evaluation of the chemical composition of protoplanetary dust. Different methods of analysis have been proposed for this purpose, but so far, no comparative test has been performed to test the validity of their assumptions. In this paper, we evaluate how good the various methods are in deriving the chemical composition of dust grains from infrared spectroscopy. Synthetic spectra of disk models with different geometries and central sources were calculated, using a two-dimensional radiative transfer code. These spectra were then fitted in a blind test by four spectral decomposition methods. We studied the effect of disk structure (flared versus flat), inclination angle, size of an inner disk hole, and stellar luminosity on the fitted chemical composition. Our results show that the dust parameters obtained by all methods deviate systematically from the input data of the synthetic spectra. The dust composition fitted by the new two-layer temperature distribution method, described in this paper, differs the least from the input dust composition and the results show the weakest systematic effects. The reason for the deviations of the results given by the previously used methods lies in their simplifying assumptions. Due to the radial extent of the 10 μm emitting region there is dust at different temperatures contributing to the flux in the silicate feature. Therefore, the assumption of a single averaged grain temperature can be a strong limitation of the previously used methods. The continuum below the feature can consist of multiple components (e.g., star, inner rim, and disk midplane), which cannot simply be described by a Planck function at a single temperature. In addition, the optically thin emission of 'featureless' grains (e.g., carbon in the considered wavelength range) produces a degeneracy in the models with the optically thick emission of the

Uncertainties and Systematic Effects on the estimate of stellar masses in high z galaxies

Science.gov (United States)

Salimbeni, S.; Fontana, A.; Giallongo, E.; Grazian, A.; Menci, N.; Pentericci, L.; Santini, P.

2009-05-01

We discuss the uncertainties and the systematic effects that exist in the estimates of the stellar masses of high redshift galaxies, using broad band photometry, and how they affect the deduced galaxy stellar mass function. We use at this purpose the latest version of the GOODS-MUSIC catalog. In particular, we discuss the impact of different synthetic models, of the assumed initial mass function and of the selection band. Using Chariot & Bruzual 2007 and Maraston 2005 models we find masses lower than those obtained from Bruzual & Chariot 2003 models. In addition, we find a slight trend as a function of the mass itself comparing these two mass determinations with that from Bruzual & Chariot 2003 models. As consequence, the derived galaxy stellar mass functions show diverse shapes, and their slope depends on the assumed models. Despite these differences, the overall results and scenario is observed in all these cases. The masses obtained with the assumption of the Chabrier initial mass function are in average 0.24 dex lower than those from the Salpeter assumption, at all redshifts, causing a shift of galaxy stellar mass function of the same amount. Finally, using a 4.5 μm-selected sample instead of a Ks-selected one, we add a new population of highly absorbed, dusty galaxies at z~=2-3 of relatively low masses, yielding stronger constraints on the slope of the galaxy stellar mass function at lower masses.

Influence of patient axial malpositioning on the trueness and precision of pelvic parameters obtained from 3D reconstructions based on biplanar radiographs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ghostine, Bachir; Assi, Ayman [Institut de Biomecanique Humaine Georges Charpak, Arts et Metiers ParisTech, Paris (France); University of Saint-Joseph, Laboratory of Biomechanics and Medical Imaging, Faculty of Medicine, Beirut (Lebanon); Sauret, Christophe; Skalli, Wafa [Institut de Biomecanique Humaine Georges Charpak, Arts et Metiers ParisTech, Paris (France); Bakouny, Ziad; Khalil, Nour [University of Saint-Joseph, Laboratory of Biomechanics and Medical Imaging, Faculty of Medicine, Beirut (Lebanon); Ghanem, Ismat [University of Saint-Joseph, Laboratory of Biomechanics and Medical Imaging, Faculty of Medicine, Beirut (Lebanon); University of Saint-Joseph, Hotel-Dieu de France Hospital, Beirut (Lebanon)

2017-03-15

Radiographs are often performed to assess pelvic and hip parameters, but results depend upon correct pelvis positioning. Three-dimensional (3D) reconstruction from biplanar-radiographs should provide parameters that are less sensitive to pelvic orientation, but this remained to be evaluated. Computerized-tomographic scans of six patients were used both as a reference and for generating simulated frontal and lateral radiographs. These simulated radiographs were generated while introducing axial rotations of the pelvis ranging from 0 to 20 . Simulated biplanar-radiographs were utilized by four operators, three times each, to perform pelvic 3D-reconstructions. These reconstructions were used to assess the trueness, precision and global uncertainty of radiological pelvic and hip parameters for each position. In the neutral position, global uncertainty ranged between ± 2 for pelvic tilt and ± 9 for acetabular posterior sector angle and was mainly related to precision errors (ranging from 1.5 to 7 ). With increasing axial rotation, global uncertainty increased and ranged between ± 5 for pelvic tilt and ± 11 for pelvic incidence, sacral slope and acetabular anterior sector angle, mainly due to precision errors. Radiological parameters obtained from 3D-reconstructions, based on biplanar-radiographs, are less sensitive to axial rotation compared to plain radiographs. However, the axial rotation should nonetheless not exceed 10 . (orig.)

Influence of patient axial malpositioning on the trueness and precision of pelvic parameters obtained from 3D reconstructions based on biplanar radiographs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ghostine, Bachir; Assi, Ayman; Sauret, Christophe; Skalli, Wafa; Bakouny, Ziad; Khalil, Nour; Ghanem, Ismat

2017-01-01

Radiographs are often performed to assess pelvic and hip parameters, but results depend upon correct pelvis positioning. Three-dimensional (3D) reconstruction from biplanar-radiographs should provide parameters that are less sensitive to pelvic orientation, but this remained to be evaluated. Computerized-tomographic scans of six patients were used both as a reference and for generating simulated frontal and lateral radiographs. These simulated radiographs were generated while introducing axial rotations of the pelvis ranging from 0 to 20 . Simulated biplanar-radiographs were utilized by four operators, three times each, to perform pelvic 3D-reconstructions. These reconstructions were used to assess the trueness, precision and global uncertainty of radiological pelvic and hip parameters for each position. In the neutral position, global uncertainty ranged between ± 2 for pelvic tilt and ± 9 for acetabular posterior sector angle and was mainly related to precision errors (ranging from 1.5 to 7 ). With increasing axial rotation, global uncertainty increased and ranged between ± 5 for pelvic tilt and ± 11 for pelvic incidence, sacral slope and acetabular anterior sector angle, mainly due to precision errors. Radiological parameters obtained from 3D-reconstructions, based on biplanar-radiographs, are less sensitive to axial rotation compared to plain radiographs. However, the axial rotation should nonetheless not exceed 10 . (orig.)

Impact of systematic errors on DVH parameters of different OAR and target volumes in Intracavitary Brachytherapy (ICBT)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mourya, Ankur; Singh, Gaganpreet; Kumar, Vivek; Oinam, Arun S.

2016-01-01

Aim of this study is to analyze the impact of systematic errors on DVH parameters of different OAR and Target volumes in intracavitary brachytherapy (ICBT). To quantify the changes in dose-volume histogram parameters due to systematic errors in applicator reconstruction of brachytherapy planning, known errors in catheter reconstructions have to be introduced in applicator coordinate system

Neutrino Scattering Uncertainties and their Role in Long Baseline Oscillation Experiments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

D.A. Harris; G. Blazey; Arie Bodek; D. Boehnlein; S. Boyd; William Brooks; Antje Bruell; Howard S. Budd; R. Burnstein; D. Casper; A. Chakravorty; Michael Christy; Jesse Chvojka; M.A.C. Cummings; P. deBarbaro; D. Drakoulakos; J. Dunmore; Rolf Ent; Hugh Gallagher; David Gaskell; Ronald Gilman; Charles Glashausser; Wendy Hinton; Xiaodong Jiang; T. Kafka; O. Kamaev; Cynthia Keppel; M. Kostin; Sergey Kulagin; Gerfried Kumbartzki; Steven Manly; W.A. Mann; Kevin Mcfarland-porter; Wolodymyr Melnitchouk; Jorge Morfin; D. Naples; John Nelson; Gabriel Niculescu; Maria-ioana Niculescu; W. Oliver; Michael Paolone; Emmanuel Paschos; A. Pla-Dalmau; Ronald Ransome; C. Regis; P. Rubinov; V. Rykalin; Willis Sakumoto; P. Shanahan; N. Solomey; P. Spentzouris; P. Stamoulis; G. Tzanakos; Stephen Wood; F.X. Yumiceva; B. Ziemer; M. Zois

2004-01-01

The field of oscillation physics is about to make an enormous leap forward in statistical precision: first through the MINOS experiment in the coming year, and later through the NOvA and T2K experiments. Because of the relatively poor understanding of neutrino interactions in the energy ranges of these experiments, there are systematics that can arise in interpreting far detector data that can be as large as or even larger than the expected statistical uncertainties. We describe how these systematic errors arise, and how specific measurements in a dedicated neutrino scattering experiment like MINERvA can reduce the cross section systematic errors to well below the statistical errors

Fukushima Daiichi unit 1 uncertainty analysis--Preliminary selection of uncertain parameters and analysis methodology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cardoni, Jeffrey N.; Kalinich, Donald A.

2014-02-01

Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) plans to conduct uncertainty analyses (UA) on the Fukushima Daiichi unit (1F1) plant with the MELCOR code. The model to be used was developed for a previous accident reconstruction investigation jointly sponsored by the US Department of Energy (DOE) and Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). However, that study only examined a handful of various model inputs and boundary conditions, and the predictions yielded only fair agreement with plant data and current release estimates. The goal of this uncertainty study is to perform a focused evaluation of uncertainty in core melt progression behavior and its effect on key figures-of-merit (e.g., hydrogen production, vessel lower head failure, etc.). In preparation for the SNL Fukushima UA work, a scoping study has been completed to identify important core melt progression parameters for the uncertainty analysis. The study also lays out a preliminary UA methodology.

Radon measurements: the sources of uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhukovsky, Michael; Onischenko, Alexandra; Bastrikov, Vladislav

2008-01-01

Full text: Radon measurements are quite complicated process and the correct estimation of uncertainties is very important. The sources of uncertainties for grab sampling, short term measurements (charcoal canisters), long term measurements (track detectors) and retrospective measurements (surface traps) are analyzed. The main sources of uncertainties for grab sampling measurements are: systematic bias of reference equipment; random Poisson and non-Poisson errors during calibration; random Poisson and non-Poisson errors during measurements. These sources are also common both for short term measurements (charcoal canisters) and long term measurements (track detectors). Usually during the calibration the high radon concentrations are used (1-5 kBq/m 3 ) and the Poisson random error rarely exceed some percents. Nevertheless the dispersion of measured values even during the calibration usually exceeds the Poisson dispersion expected on the basis of counting statistic. The origins of such non-Poisson random errors during calibration are different for different kinds of instrumental measurements. At present not all sources of non-Poisson random errors are trustworthy identified. The initial calibration accuracy of working devices rarely exceeds the value 20%. The real radon concentrations usually are in the range from some tens to some hundreds Becquerel per cubic meter and for low radon levels Poisson random error can reach up to 20%. The random non-Poisson errors and residual systematic biases are depends on the kind of measurement technique and the environmental conditions during radon measurements. For charcoal canisters there are additional sources of the measurement errors due to influence of air humidity and the variations of radon concentration during the canister exposure. The accuracy of long term measurements by track detectors will depend on the quality of chemical etching after exposure and the influence of season radon variations. The main sources of

The management of uncertainties in radiological data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Funtowicz, S.O.

1989-01-01

A prototype framework for representing uncertainties in radiological data is introduced. Through this framework, inherent variability in the quality of radiological data can be managed and communicated efficiently, systematically and consistently. Codings derived from the framework have applicability to radiological data, irrespective of the source from which the data are obtained. and irrespective of the context in which they may be used. The coding, in effect, can itself become part of a radiological base. (author)

Uncertainty in Simulating Wheat Yields Under Climate Change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J.W.; Hatfield, Jerry; Ruane, Alex; Boote, K. J.; Thorburn, Peter; Rotter, R.P.; Cammarano, D.; Brisson, N.; Basso, B.; Martre, P.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Angulo, C.; Bertuzzi, P.; Biernath, C.; Challinor, AJ; Doltra, J.; Gayler, S.; Goldberg, R.; Grant, Robert; Heng, L.; Hooker, J.; Hunt, L.A.; Ingwersen, J.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Mueller, C.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Nendel, C.; O' Leary, G.O.; Olesen, JE; Osborne, T.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Semenov, M.A.; Shcherbak, I.; Steduto, P.; Stockle, Claudio O.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Travasso, M.; Waha, K.; Wallach, D.; White, J.W.; Williams, J.R.; Wolf, J.

2013-09-01

Anticipating the impacts of climate change on crop yields is critical for assessing future food security. Process-based crop simulation models are the most commonly used tools in such assessments1,2. Analysis of uncertainties in future greenhouse gas emissions and their impacts on future climate change has been increasingly described in the literature3,4 while assessments of the uncertainty in crop responses to climate change are very rare. Systematic and objective comparisons across impact studies is difficult, and thus has not been fully realized5. Here we present the largest coordinated and standardized crop model intercomparison for climate change impacts on wheat production to date. We found that several individual crop models are able to reproduce measured grain yields under current diverse environments, particularly if sufficient details are provided to execute them. However, simulated climate change impacts can vary across models due to differences in model structures and algorithms. The crop-model component of uncertainty in climate change impact assessments was considerably larger than the climate-model component from Global Climate Models (GCMs). Model responses to high temperatures and temperature-by-CO2 interactions are identified as major sources of simulated impact uncertainties. Significant reductions in impact uncertainties through model improvements in these areas and improved quantification of uncertainty through multi-model ensembles are urgently needed for a more reliable translation of climate change scenarios into agricultural impacts in order to develop adaptation strategies and aid policymaking.

How Are We Measuring Patient Satisfaction After Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction?

Science.gov (United States)

Kahlenberg, Cynthia A; Nwachukwu, Benedict U; Ferraro, Richard A; Schairer, William W; Steinhaus, Michael E; Allen, Answorth A

2016-12-01

Reconstruction of the anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) is one of the most common orthopaedic operations in the United States. The long-term impact of ACL reconstruction is controversial, however, as longer term data have failed to demonstrate that ACL reconstruction helps alter the natural history of early onset osteoarthritis that occurs after ACL injury. There is significant interest in evaluating the value of ACL reconstruction surgeries. To examine the quality of patient satisfaction reporting after ACL reconstruction surgery. Systematic review; Level of evidence, 4. A systematic review of the MEDLINE database was performed using the PubMed interface. The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines as well as the PRISMA checklist were employed. The initial search yielded 267 studies. The inclusion criteria were: English language, US patient population, clinical outcome study of ACL reconstruction surgery, and reporting of patient satisfaction included in the study. Study quality was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale. A total of 22 studies met the inclusion criteria. These studies comprised a total of 1984 patients with a mean age of 31.9 years at the time of surgery and a mean follow-up period of 59.3 months. The majority of studies were evidence level 4 (n = 18; 81.8%), had a mean Newcastle-Ottawa scale score of 5.5, and were published before 2006 (n = 17; 77.3%); 5 studies (22.7%) failed to clearly describe their method for determining patient satisfaction. The most commonly used method for assessing satisfaction was a 0 to 10 satisfaction scale (n = 11; 50.0%). Among studies using a 0 to 10 scale, mean satisfaction ranged from 7.4 to 10.0. Patient-reported outcome and objective functional measures for ACL stability and knee function were positively correlated with patient satisfaction. Degenerative knee change was negatively correlated with satisfaction. The level of evidence for studies reporting patient

Ground surface temperature and continental heat gain: uncertainties from underground

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beltrami, Hugo; Matharoo, Gurpreet S; Smerdon, Jason E

2015-01-01

Temperature changes at the Earth's surface propagate and are recorded underground as perturbations to the equilibrium thermal regime associated with the heat flow from the Earth's interior. Borehole climatology is concerned with the analysis and interpretation of these downward propagating subsurface temperature anomalies in terms of surface climate. Proper determination of the steady-state geothermal regime is therefore crucial because it is the reference against which climate-induced subsurface temperature anomalies are estimated. Here, we examine the effects of data noise on the determination of the steady-state geothermal regime of the subsurface and the subsequent impact on estimates of ground surface temperature (GST) history and heat gain. We carry out a series of Monte Carlo experiments using 1000 Gaussian noise realizations and depth sections of 100 and 200 m as for steady-state estimates depth intervals, as well as a range of data sampling intervals from 10 m to 0.02 m. Results indicate that typical uncertainties for 50 year averages are on the order of ±0.02 K for the most recent 100 year period. These uncertainties grow with decreasing sampling intervals, reaching about ±0.1 K for a 10 m sampling interval under identical conditions and target period. Uncertainties increase for progressively older periods, reaching ±0.3 K at 500 years before present for a 10 m sampling interval. The uncertainties in reconstructed GST histories for the Northern Hemisphere for the most recent 50 year period can reach a maximum of ±0.5 K in some areas. We suggest that continuous logging should be the preferred approach when measuring geothermal data for climate reconstructions, and that for those using the International Heat Flow Commission database for borehole climatology, the steady-state thermal conditions should be estimated from boreholes as deep as possible and using a large fitting depth range (∼100 m). (letter)

Deterministic Method for Obtaining Nominal and Uncertainty Models of CD Drives

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vidal, Enrique Sanchez; Stoustrup, Jakob; Andersen, Palle

2002-01-01

In this paper a deterministic method for obtaining the nominal and uncertainty models of the focus loop in a CD-player is presented based on parameter identification and measurements in the focus loop of 12 actual CD drives that differ by having worst-case behaviors with respect to various...... properties. The method provides a systematic way to derive a nominal average model as well as a structures multiplicative input uncertainty model, and it is demonstrated how to apply mu-theory to design a controller based on the models obtained that meets certain robust performance criteria....

Reconstruction algorithm in compressed sensing based on maximum a posteriori estimation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Takeda, Koujin; Kabashima, Yoshiyuki

2013-01-01

We propose a systematic method for constructing a sparse data reconstruction algorithm in compressed sensing at a relatively low computational cost for general observation matrix. It is known that the cost of ℓ 1 -norm minimization using a standard linear programming algorithm is O(N 3 ). We show that this cost can be reduced to O(N 2 ) by applying the approach of posterior maximization. Furthermore, in principle, the algorithm from our approach is expected to achieve the widest successful reconstruction region, which is evaluated from theoretical argument. We also discuss the relation between the belief propagation-based reconstruction algorithm introduced in preceding works and our approach

The uncertainties in estimating measurement uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clark, J.P.; Shull, A.H.

1994-01-01

All measurements include some error. Whether measurements are used for accountability, environmental programs or process support, they are of little value unless accompanied by an estimate of the measurements uncertainty. This fact is often overlooked by the individuals who need measurements to make decisions. This paper will discuss the concepts of measurement, measurements errors (accuracy or bias and precision or random error), physical and error models, measurement control programs, examples of measurement uncertainty, and uncertainty as related to measurement quality. Measurements are comparisons of unknowns to knowns, estimates of some true value plus uncertainty; and are no better than the standards to which they are compared. Direct comparisons of unknowns that match the composition of known standards will normally have small uncertainties. In the real world, measurements usually involve indirect comparisons of significantly different materials (e.g., measuring a physical property of a chemical element in a sample having a matrix that is significantly different from calibration standards matrix). Consequently, there are many sources of error involved in measurement processes that can affect the quality of a measurement and its associated uncertainty. How the uncertainty estimates are determined and what they mean is as important as the measurement. The process of calculating the uncertainty of a measurement itself has uncertainties that must be handled correctly. Examples of chemistry laboratory measurement will be reviewed in this report and recommendations made for improving measurement uncertainties

RHIC susceptibility to variations in systematic magnetic harmonic errors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dell, G.F.; Peggs, S.; Pilat, F.; Satogata, T.; Tepikian, S.; Trbojevic, D.; Wei, J.

1994-01-01

Results of a study to determine the sensitivity of tune to uncertainties of the systematic magnetic harmonic errors in the 8 cm dipoles of RHIC are reported. Tolerances specified to the manufacturer for tooling and fabrication can result in systematic harmonics different from the expected values. Limits on the range of systematic harmonics have been established from magnet calculations, and the impact on tune from such harmonics has been established

Coping with uncertainty in environmental impact assessments: Open techniques

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cardenas, Ibsen C., E-mail: c.cardenas@utwente.nl [IceBridge Research Institutea, Universiteit Twente, P.O. Box 217, 7500 AE Enschede (Netherlands); Halman, Johannes I.M., E-mail: J.I.M.Halman@utwente.nl [Universiteit Twente, P.O. Box 217, 7500 AE Enschede (Netherlands)

2016-09-15

Uncertainty is virtually unavoidable in environmental impact assessments (EIAs). From the literature related to treating and managing uncertainty, we have identified specific techniques for coping with uncertainty in EIAs. Here, we have focused on basic steps in the decision-making process that take place within an EIA setting. More specifically, we have identified uncertainties involved in each decision-making step and discussed the extent to which these can be treated and managed in the context of an activity or project that may have environmental impacts. To further demonstrate the relevance of the techniques identified, we have examined the extent to which the EIA guidelines currently used in Colombia consider and provide guidance on managing the uncertainty involved in these assessments. Some points that should be considered in order to provide greater robustness in impact assessments in Colombia have been identified. These include the management of stakeholder values, the systematic generation of project options, and their associated impacts as well as the associated management actions, and the evaluation of uncertainties and assumptions. We believe that the relevant and specific techniques reported here can be a reference for future evaluations of other EIA guidelines in different countries. - Highlights: • uncertainty is unavoidable in environmental impact assessments, EIAs; • we have identified some open techniques to EIAs for treating and managing uncertainty in these assessments; • points for improvement that should be considered in order to provide greater robustness in EIAs in Colombia have been identified; • the paper provides substantiated a reference for possible examinations of EIAs guidelines in other countries.

Coping with uncertainty in environmental impact assessments: Open techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cardenas, Ibsen C.; Halman, Johannes I.M.

2016-01-01

Uncertainty is virtually unavoidable in environmental impact assessments (EIAs). From the literature related to treating and managing uncertainty, we have identified specific techniques for coping with uncertainty in EIAs. Here, we have focused on basic steps in the decision-making process that take place within an EIA setting. More specifically, we have identified uncertainties involved in each decision-making step and discussed the extent to which these can be treated and managed in the context of an activity or project that may have environmental impacts. To further demonstrate the relevance of the techniques identified, we have examined the extent to which the EIA guidelines currently used in Colombia consider and provide guidance on managing the uncertainty involved in these assessments. Some points that should be considered in order to provide greater robustness in impact assessments in Colombia have been identified. These include the management of stakeholder values, the systematic generation of project options, and their associated impacts as well as the associated management actions, and the evaluation of uncertainties and assumptions. We believe that the relevant and specific techniques reported here can be a reference for future evaluations of other EIA guidelines in different countries. - Highlights: • uncertainty is unavoidable in environmental impact assessments, EIAs; • we have identified some open techniques to EIAs for treating and managing uncertainty in these assessments; • points for improvement that should be considered in order to provide greater robustness in EIAs in Colombia have been identified; • the paper provides substantiated a reference for possible examinations of EIAs guidelines in other countries.

The Efficacy of Medial Patellofemoral Ligament Reconstruction Combined with Tibial Tuberosity Transfer in the Treatment of Patellofemoral Instability

Science.gov (United States)

Downham, Christopher; Bassett, James; Thompson, Peter; Sprowson, Andrew

2016-01-01

A systematic review of the literature was undertaken to evaluate the efficacy of medial patellofemoral ligament (MPFL) reconstruction combined with tibial tuberosity transfer (TTT) in the treatment of patellofemoral instability. Using PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) guidelines, a systematic search was carried out to identify and review the published literature pertinent to MFPL reconstruction combined with TTT. Relevant studies were critically appraised with narrative data synthesis. Studies that met the eligibility criteria were suitable for appraisal and consisted of case series and therapeutic series (levels IV & III). All studies had inherent variations in outcomes reporting and limited follow-up. Combined treatment offers restoration of normal anatomy, thus adding clinical value to the currently recommended anatomic approach to MPFL reconstruction. Nevertheless, the current body of evidence does not determine the threshold at which patellofemoral axis requires the need for adjunctive distal realignment as opposed to MPFL reconstruction alone. This review highlighted numerous recurring limitations in the conduct and presentation of the studies, which inadvertently mitigated the interpretation of their results. Future priority should be awarded to larger randomised controlled trials utilising validated patient reported outcome measures. PMID:27274466

Total Measurement Uncertainty for the Plutonium Finishing Plant (PFP) Segmented Gamma Scan Assay System

CERN Document Server

Fazzari, D M

2001-01-01

This report presents the results of an evaluation of the Total Measurement Uncertainty (TMU) for the Canberra manufactured Segmented Gamma Scanner Assay System (SGSAS) as employed at the Hanford Plutonium Finishing Plant (PFP). In this document, TMU embodies the combined uncertainties due to all of the individual random and systematic sources of measurement uncertainty. It includes uncertainties arising from corrections and factors applied to the analysis of transuranic waste to compensate for inhomogeneities and interferences from the waste matrix and radioactive components. These include uncertainty components for any assumptions contained in the calibration of the system or computation of the data. Uncertainties are propagated at 1 sigma. The final total measurement uncertainty value is reported at the 95% confidence level. The SGSAS is a gamma assay system that is used to assay plutonium and uranium waste. The SGSAS system can be used in a stand-alone mode to perform the NDA characterization of a containe...

Can shrubs help to reconstruct historical glacier retreats?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buras, Allan; Hallinger, Martin; Wilmking, Martin

2012-01-01

In the 21st century, most of the world’s glaciers are expected to retreat due to further global warming. The range of this predicted retreat varies widely as a result of uncertainties in climate and glacier models. To calibrate and validate glacier models, past records of glacier mass balance are necessary, which often only span several decades. Long-term reconstructions of glacier mass balance could increase the precision of glacier models by providing the required calibration data. Here we show the possibility of applying shrub growth increments as an on-site proxy for glacier summer mass balance, exemplified by Salix shrubs in Finse, Norway. We further discuss the challenges which this method needs to meet and address the high potential of shrub growth increments for reconstructing glacier summer mass balance in remote areas. (letter)

Calibration of the interferometer and reconstruction of the gravitational wave strain amplitude: from Virgo to Advanced Virgo

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rolland, Loic

2015-01-01

A kilometre scale interferometer has been setup by the Virgo collaboration in order to observe astrophysical sources through gravitational wave radiation with frequencies between 10 Hz and a few kHz. Four science runs have been performed between 2007 and 2011, in collaboration with the LIGO detectors installed in the United States, but no gravitational waves were detected. Since 2011, major upgrades of the detectors are ongoing. They aim to improve the sensitivity by a factor 10 over the whole frequency band by the year 2020. The Advanced Virgo detector construction is ending in 2015, and the first observation periods, of a few months, will start in 2016. I have been working for almost nine years in the Virgo collaboration. One of the activities that I have pursued since the beginning is the detector calibration. In this document, a general overview of the Virgo detector is first given. Then the three main goals of the interferometer calibration are described: estimation of the detector sensitivity, reconstruction of the gravitational wave signal given to the different search pipelines, and hardware injections of fake signals in the instrument. The different methods are summarised and emphasise is put on the systematic uncertainties estimated for the Virgo detector. The last part deals with prospects of the calibration and reconstruction techniques for the new Advanced Virgo detector. (author)

Reconstruction of the external dose of evacuees from the contaminated areas based on simulation modelling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meckbach, R.; Chumak, V.V.

1996-01-01

Model calculations are being performed for the reconstruction of individual external gamma doses of population evacuated during the Chernobyl accident from the city of Pripyat and other settlements of the 30-km zone. The models are based on sets of dose rate measurements performed during the accident, on individual behavior histories of more than 30000 evacuees obtained by questionnaire survey and on location factors determined for characteristic housing buildings. Location factors were calculated by Monte Carlo simulations of photon transport for a typical housing block and village houses. Stochastic models for individual external dose reconstruction are described. Using Monte Carlo methods, frequency distributions representing the uncertainty of doses are calculated from an assessment of the uncertainty of the data. The determination of dose rate distributions in Pripyat is discussed. Exemplary results for individual external doses are presented

Reconstruction of conductivity changes and electrode movements based on EIT temporal sequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dai, Tao; Gómez-Laberge, Camille; Adler, Andy

2008-01-01

Electrical impedance tomography (EIT) reconstructs a conductivity change image within a body from electrical measurements on the body surface; while it has relatively low spatial resolution, it has a high temporal resolution. One key difficulty with EIT measurements is due to the movement and position uncertainty of the electrodes, especially due to breathing and posture change. In this paper, we develop an approach to reconstruct both the conductivity change image and the electrode movements from the temporal sequence of EIT measurements. Since both the conductivity change and electrode movement are slow with respect to the data frame rate, there are significant temporal correlations which we formulate as priors for the regularized image reconstruction model. Image reconstruction is posed in terms of a regularization matrix and a Jacobian matrix which are augmented for the conductivity change and electrode movement, and then further augmented to concatenate the d previous and future frames. Results are shown for simulation, phantom and human data, and show that the proposed algorithm yields improved resolution and noise performance in comparison to a conventional one-step reconstruction method

Tissue Engineering for Human Urethral Reconstruction : Systematic Review of Recent Literature

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Kemp, Vincent; de Graaf, Petra; Fledderus, Joost O.; Bosch, JLHR; de Kort, Laetitia

2015-01-01

Background Techniques to treat urethral stricture and hypospadias are restricted, as substitution of the unhealthy urethra with tissue from other origins (skin, bladder or buccal mucosa) has some limitations. Therefore, alternative sources of tissue for use in urethral reconstructions are

Using spatial uncertainty to manipulate the size of the attention focus.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Dan; Xue, Linyan; Wang, Xin; Chen, Yao

2016-09-01

Preferentially processing behaviorally relevant information is vital for primate survival. In visuospatial attention studies, manipulating the spatial extent of attention focus is an important question. Although many studies have claimed to successfully adjust attention field size by either varying the uncertainty about the target location (spatial uncertainty) or adjusting the size of the cue orienting the attention focus, no systematic studies have assessed and compared the effectiveness of these methods. We used a multiple cue paradigm with 2.5° and 7.5° rings centered around a target position to measure the cue size effect, while the spatial uncertainty levels were manipulated by changing the number of cueing positions. We found that spatial uncertainty had a significant impact on reaction time during target detection, while the cue size effect was less robust. We also carefully varied the spatial scope of potential target locations within a small or large region and found that this amount of variation in spatial uncertainty can also significantly influence target detection speed. Our results indicate that adjusting spatial uncertainty is more effective than varying cue size when manipulating attention field size.

Uncertainties in estimating heart doses from 2D-tangential breast cancer radiotherapy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Laugaard Lorenzen, Ebbe; Brink, Carsten; Taylor, Carolyn W.

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: We evaluated the accuracy of three methods of estimating radiation dose to the heart from two-dimensional tangential radiotherapy for breast cancer, as used in Denmark during 1982-2002. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Three tangential radiotherapy regimens were reconstructed using CT......-based planning scans for 40 patients with left-sided and 10 with right-sided breast cancer. Setup errors and organ motion were simulated using estimated uncertainties. For left-sided patients, mean heart dose was related to maximum heart distance in the medial field. RESULTS: For left-sided breast cancer, mean...... to the uncertainty of estimates based on individual CT-scans. For right-sided breast cancer patients, mean heart dose based on individual CT-scans was always

Propagation of interval and probabilistic uncertainty in cyberinfrastructure-related data processing and data fusion

CERN Document Server

Servin, Christian

2015-01-01

On various examples ranging from geosciences to environmental sciences, this book explains how to generate an adequate description of uncertainty, how to justify semiheuristic algorithms for processing uncertainty, and how to make these algorithms more computationally efficient. It explains in what sense the existing approach to uncertainty as a combination of random and systematic components is only an approximation, presents a more adequate three-component model with an additional periodic error component, and explains how uncertainty propagation techniques can be extended to this model. The book provides a justification for a practically efficient heuristic technique (based on fuzzy decision-making). It explains how the computational complexity of uncertainty processing can be reduced. The book also shows how to take into account that in real life, the information about uncertainty is often only partially known, and, on several practical examples, explains how to extract the missing information about uncer...

Lensing reconstruction from a patchwork of polarization maps

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Namikawa, Toshiya; Nagata, Ryo

2014-01-01

The lensing signals involved in CMB polarization maps have already been measured with ground-based experiments such as SPTpol and POLARBEAR, and would become important as a probe of cosmological and astrophysical issues in the near future. Sizes of polarization maps from ground-based experiments are, however, limited by contamination of long wavelength modes of observational noise. To further extract the lensing signals, we explore feasibility of measuring lensing signals from a collection of small sky maps each of which is observed separately by a ground-based large telescope, i.e., lensing reconstruction from a patchwork map of large sky coverage organized from small sky patches. We show that, although the B-mode power spectrum obtained from the patchwork map is biased due to baseline uncertainty, bias on the lensing potential would be negligible if the B-mode on scales larger than the blowup scale of 1/f noise is removed in the lensing reconstruction. As examples of cosmological applications, we also show 1) the cross-correlations between the reconstructed lensing potential and full-sky temperature/polarization maps from satellite missions such as PLANCK and LiteBIRD, and 2) the use of the reconstructed potential for delensing B-mode polarization of LiteBIRD observation

On a full Bayesian inference for force reconstruction problems

Science.gov (United States)

Aucejo, M.; De Smet, O.

2018-05-01

In a previous paper, the authors introduced a flexible methodology for reconstructing mechanical sources in the frequency domain from prior local information on both their nature and location over a linear and time invariant structure. The proposed approach was derived from Bayesian statistics, because of its ability in mathematically accounting for experimenter's prior knowledge. However, since only the Maximum a Posteriori estimate was computed, the posterior uncertainty about the regularized solution given the measured vibration field, the mechanical model and the regularization parameter was not assessed. To answer this legitimate question, this paper fully exploits the Bayesian framework to provide, from a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm, credible intervals and other statistical measures (mean, median, mode) for all the parameters of the force reconstruction problem.

The EURACOS activation experiments: preliminary uncertainty analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yeivin, Y.

1982-01-01

A sequence of counting rates of an irradiated sulphur pellet, r(tsub(i)), measured at different times after the end of the irradiation, are fitted to r(t)=Aexp(-lambda t)+B. A standard adjustment procedure is applied to determine the parameters A and B, their standard deviations and correlation, and chi square. It is demonstrated that if the counting-rate uncertainties are entirely due to the counting statistics, the experimental data are totally inconsistent with the ''theoretical'' model. However, assuming an additional systematic error of approximalety 1%, and eliminating a few ''bad'' data, produces a data set quite consistent with the model. The dependence of chi square on the assumed systematic error and the data elimination procedure are discussed in great detail. A review of the adjustment procedure is appended to the report

Dark Energy Survey Year 1 results: cross-correlation redshifts - methods and systematics characterization

Science.gov (United States)

Gatti, M.; Vielzeuf, P.; Davis, C.; Cawthon, R.; Rau, M. M.; DeRose, J.; De Vicente, J.; Alarcon, A.; Rozo, E.; Gaztanaga, E.; Hoyle, B.; Miquel, R.; Bernstein, G. M.; Bonnett, C.; Carnero Rosell, A.; Castander, F. J.; Chang, C.; da Costa, L. N.; Gruen, D.; Gschwend, J.; Hartley, W. G.; Lin, H.; MacCrann, N.; Maia, M. A. G.; Ogando, R. L. C.; Roodman, A.; Sevilla-Noarbe, I.; Troxel, M. A.; Wechsler, R. H.; Asorey, J.; Davis, T. M.; Glazebrook, K.; Hinton, S. R.; Lewis, G.; Lidman, C.; Macaulay, E.; Möller, A.; O'Neill, C. R.; Sommer, N. E.; Uddin, S. A.; Yuan, F.; Zhang, B.; Abbott, T. M. C.; Allam, S.; Annis, J.; Bechtol, K.; Brooks, D.; Burke, D. L.; Carollo, D.; Carrasco Kind, M.; Carretero, J.; Cunha, C. E.; D'Andrea, C. B.; DePoy, D. L.; Desai, S.; Eifler, T. F.; Evrard, A. E.; Flaugher, B.; Fosalba, P.; Frieman, J.; García-Bellido, J.; Gerdes, D. W.; Goldstein, D. A.; Gruendl, R. A.; Gutierrez, G.; Honscheid, K.; Hoormann, J. K.; Jain, B.; James, D. J.; Jarvis, M.; Jeltema, T.; Johnson, M. W. G.; Johnson, M. D.; Krause, E.; Kuehn, K.; Kuhlmann, S.; Kuropatkin, N.; Li, T. S.; Lima, M.; Marshall, J. L.; Melchior, P.; Menanteau, F.; Nichol, R. C.; Nord, B.; Plazas, A. A.; Reil, K.; Rykoff, E. S.; Sako, M.; Sanchez, E.; Scarpine, V.; Schubnell, M.; Sheldon, E.; Smith, M.; Smith, R. C.; Soares-Santos, M.; Sobreira, F.; Suchyta, E.; Swanson, M. E. C.; Tarle, G.; Thomas, D.; Tucker, B. E.; Tucker, D. L.; Vikram, V.; Walker, A. R.; Weller, J.; Wester, W.; Wolf, R. C.

2018-06-01

We use numerical simulations to characterize the performance of a clustering-based method to calibrate photometric redshift biases. In particular, we cross-correlate the weak lensing source galaxies from the Dark Energy Survey Year 1 sample with redMaGiC galaxies (luminous red galaxies with secure photometric redshifts) to estimate the redshift distribution of the former sample. The recovered redshift distributions are used to calibrate the photometric redshift bias of standard photo-z methods applied to the same source galaxy sample. We apply the method to two photo-z codes run in our simulated data: Bayesian Photometric Redshift and Directional Neighbourhood Fitting. We characterize the systematic uncertainties of our calibration procedure, and find that these systematic uncertainties dominate our error budget. The dominant systematics are due to our assumption of unevolving bias and clustering across each redshift bin, and to differences between the shapes of the redshift distributions derived by clustering versus photo-zs. The systematic uncertainty in the mean redshift bias of the source galaxy sample is Δz ≲ 0.02, though the precise value depends on the redshift bin under consideration. We discuss possible ways to mitigate the impact of our dominant systematics in future analyses.

Model simulations and proxy-based reconstructions for the European region in the past millennium (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Zorita, E.

2009-12-01

One of the objectives when comparing simulations of past climates to proxy-based climate reconstructions is to asses the skill of climate models to simulate climate change. This comparison may accomplished at large spatial scales, for instance the evolution of simulated and reconstructed Northern Hemisphere annual temperature, or at regional or point scales. In both approaches a 'fair' comparison has to take into account different aspects that affect the inevitable uncertainties and biases in the simulations and in the reconstructions. These efforts face a trade-off: climate models are believed to be more skillful at large hemispheric scales, but climate reconstructions are these scales are burdened by the spatial distribution of available proxies and by methodological issues surrounding the statistical method used to translate the proxy information into large-spatial averages. Furthermore, the internal climatic noise at large hemispheric scales is low, so that the sampling uncertainty tends to be also low. On the other hand, the skill of climate models at regional scales is limited by the coarse spatial resolution, which hinders a faithful representation of aspects important for the regional climate. At small spatial scales, the reconstruction of past climate probably faces less methodological problems if information from different proxies is available. The internal climatic variability at regional scales is, however, high. In this contribution some examples of the different issues faced when comparing simulation and reconstructions at small spatial scales in the past millennium are discussed. These examples comprise reconstructions from dendrochronological data and from historical documentary data in Europe and climate simulations with global and regional models. These examples indicate that the centennial climate variations can offer a reasonable target to assess the skill of global climate models and of proxy-based reconstructions, even at small spatial scales

Asteroseismic modelling of solar-type stars: internal systematics from input physics and surface correction methods

Science.gov (United States)

Nsamba, B.; Campante, T. L.; Monteiro, M. J. P. F. G.; Cunha, M. S.; Rendle, B. M.; Reese, D. R.; Verma, K.

2018-04-01

Asteroseismic forward modelling techniques are being used to determine fundamental properties (e.g. mass, radius, and age) of solar-type stars. The need to take into account all possible sources of error is of paramount importance towards a robust determination of stellar properties. We present a study of 34 solar-type stars for which high signal-to-noise asteroseismic data is available from multi-year Kepler photometry. We explore the internal systematics on the stellar properties, that is, associated with the uncertainty in the input physics used to construct the stellar models. In particular, we explore the systematics arising from: (i) the inclusion of the diffusion of helium and heavy elements; and (ii) the uncertainty in solar metallicity mixture. We also assess the systematics arising from (iii) different surface correction methods used in optimisation/fitting procedures. The systematics arising from comparing results of models with and without diffusion are found to be 0.5%, 0.8%, 2.1%, and 16% in mean density, radius, mass, and age, respectively. The internal systematics in age are significantly larger than the statistical uncertainties. We find the internal systematics resulting from the uncertainty in solar metallicity mixture to be 0.7% in mean density, 0.5% in radius, 1.4% in mass, and 6.7% in age. The surface correction method by Sonoi et al. and Ball & Gizon's two-term correction produce the lowest internal systematics among the different correction methods, namely, ˜1%, ˜1%, ˜2%, and ˜8% in mean density, radius, mass, and age, respectively. Stellar masses obtained using the surface correction methods by Kjeldsen et al. and Ball & Gizon's one-term correction are systematically higher than those obtained using frequency ratios.

Measuring reliability under epistemic uncertainty: Review on non-probabilistic reliability metrics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kang Rui

2016-06-01

Full Text Available In this paper, a systematic review of non-probabilistic reliability metrics is conducted to assist the selection of appropriate reliability metrics to model the influence of epistemic uncertainty. Five frequently used non-probabilistic reliability metrics are critically reviewed, i.e., evidence-theory-based reliability metrics, interval-analysis-based reliability metrics, fuzzy-interval-analysis-based reliability metrics, possibility-theory-based reliability metrics (posbist reliability and uncertainty-theory-based reliability metrics (belief reliability. It is pointed out that a qualified reliability metric that is able to consider the effect of epistemic uncertainty needs to (1 compensate the conservatism in the estimations of the component-level reliability metrics caused by epistemic uncertainty, and (2 satisfy the duality axiom, otherwise it might lead to paradoxical and confusing results in engineering applications. The five commonly used non-probabilistic reliability metrics are compared in terms of these two properties, and the comparison can serve as a basis for the selection of the appropriate reliability metrics.

Integrating uncertainty propagation in GNSS radio occultation retrieval: from excess phase to atmospheric bending angle profiles

Science.gov (United States)

Schwarz, Jakob; Kirchengast, Gottfried; Schwaerz, Marc

2018-05-01

Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) observations are highly accurate, long-term stable data sets and are globally available as a continuous record from 2001. Essential climate variables for the thermodynamic state of the free atmosphere - such as pressure, temperature, and tropospheric water vapor profiles (involving background information) - can be derived from these records, which therefore have the potential to serve as climate benchmark data. However, to exploit this potential, atmospheric profile retrievals need to be very accurate and the remaining uncertainties quantified and traced throughout the retrieval chain from raw observations to essential climate variables. The new Reference Occultation Processing System (rOPS) at the Wegener Center aims to deliver such an accurate RO retrieval chain with integrated uncertainty propagation. Here we introduce and demonstrate the algorithms implemented in the rOPS for uncertainty propagation from excess phase to atmospheric bending angle profiles, for estimated systematic and random uncertainties, including vertical error correlations and resolution estimates. We estimated systematic uncertainty profiles with the same operators as used for the basic state profiles retrieval. The random uncertainty is traced through covariance propagation and validated using Monte Carlo ensemble methods. The algorithm performance is demonstrated using test day ensembles of simulated data as well as real RO event data from the satellite missions CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP); Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC); and Meteorological Operational Satellite A (MetOp). The results of the Monte Carlo validation show that our covariance propagation delivers correct uncertainty quantification from excess phase to bending angle profiles. The results from the real RO event ensembles demonstrate that the new uncertainty estimation chain performs robustly. Together

Modelling ecosystem service flows under uncertainty with stochiastic SPAN

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Gary W.; Snapp, Robert R.; Villa, Ferdinando; Bagstad, Kenneth J.

2012-01-01

Ecosystem service models are increasingly in demand for decision making. However, the data required to run these models are often patchy, missing, outdated, or untrustworthy. Further, communication of data and model uncertainty to decision makers is often either absent or unintuitive. In this work, we introduce a systematic approach to addressing both the data gap and the difficulty in communicating uncertainty through a stochastic adaptation of the Service Path Attribution Networks (SPAN) framework. The SPAN formalism assesses ecosystem services through a set of up to 16 maps, which characterize the services in a study area in terms of flow pathways between ecosystems and human beneficiaries. Although the SPAN algorithms were originally defined deterministically, we present them here in a stochastic framework which combines probabilistic input data with a stochastic transport model in order to generate probabilistic spatial outputs. This enables a novel feature among ecosystem service models: the ability to spatially visualize uncertainty in the model results. The stochastic SPAN model can analyze areas where data limitations are prohibitive for deterministic models. Greater uncertainty in the model inputs (including missing data) should lead to greater uncertainty expressed in the model’s output distributions. By using Bayesian belief networks to fill data gaps and expert-provided trust assignments to augment untrustworthy or outdated information, we can account for uncertainty in input data, producing a model that is still able to run and provide information where strictly deterministic models could not. Taken together, these attributes enable more robust and intuitive modelling of ecosystem services under uncertainty.

Comprehensive approach to functional palatomaxillary reconstruction using regional and free tissue transfer: Report of reconstructive and prosthodontic outcomes of 140 patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Urken, Mark L; Roche, Ansley M; Kiplagat, Kimberly J; Dewey, Eliza H; Lazarus, Cathy; Likhterov, Ilya; Buchbinder, Daniel; Okay, Devin J

2018-03-14

Palatomaxillary defects were historically restored with a prosthetic obturator; however, advances in local and free tissue transfer has provided a viable alternative for appropriately selected patients with palatomaxillary defects. A retrospective chart review of patients who underwent palatomaxillary reconstruction by the lead author between 1998 and 2016 was conducted. Patients who were restored with a palatal obturator were excluded. One hundred forty patients were reconstructed with a total of 159 local, regional, and free flaps with a 96.7% success rate. Seventy-four patients (52.8%) underwent prosthodontic rehabilitation, with 183 implants placed and an 86% success rate. Palatomaxillary reconstruction applying a systematic approach, using a multitude of techniques, is a safe and effective way to restore patients without compromising the ability to maintain surveillance. Prosthodontic rehabilitation can be achieved in a high percentage of patients using dental implants, leading to optimal aesthetic and functional results. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Wound drainage after plastic and reconstructive surgery of the breast

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Khan, Sameena M.; Smeulders, Mark J. C.; van der Horst, Chantal M.

2015-01-01

Wound drains are often used after plastic and reconstructive surgery of the breast, in order to reduce potential complications. It is unclear whether there is any evidence to support this practice and we therefore undertook a systematic review of the best evidence available. To compare the safety

Wound drainage after plastic and reconstructive surgery of the breast

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Stojkovic, Christa A.; Smeulders, Mark J. C.; van der Horst, Chantal M.; Khan, Sameena M.

2013-01-01

Wound drains are often used after plastic and reconstructive surgery of the breast, in order to reduce potential complications. It is unclear whether there is any evidence to support this practice and we therefore undertook a systematic review of the best evidence available. To compare the safety

It's the parameters, stupid! Moving beyond multi-model and multi-physics approaches to characterize and reduce predictive uncertainty in process-based hydrological models

Science.gov (United States)

Clark, Martyn; Samaniego, Luis; Freer, Jim

2014-05-01

Multi-model and multi-physics approaches are a popular tool in environmental modelling, with many studies focusing on optimally combining output from multiple model simulations to reduce predictive errors and better characterize predictive uncertainty. However, a careful and systematic analysis of different hydrological models reveals that individual models are simply small permutations of a master modeling template, and inter-model differences are overwhelmed by uncertainty in the choice of the parameter values in the model equations. Furthermore, inter-model differences do not explicitly represent the uncertainty in modeling a given process, leading to many situations where different models provide the wrong results for the same reasons. In other cases, the available morphological data does not support the very fine spatial discretization of the landscape that typifies many modern applications of process-based models. To make the uncertainty characterization problem worse, the uncertain parameter values in process-based models are often fixed (hard-coded), and the models lack the agility necessary to represent the tremendous heterogeneity in natural systems. This presentation summarizes results from a systematic analysis of uncertainty in process-based hydrological models, where we explicitly analyze the myriad of subjective decisions made throughout both the model development and parameter estimation process. Results show that much of the uncertainty is aleatory in nature - given a "complete" representation of dominant hydrologic processes, uncertainty in process parameterizations can be represented using an ensemble of model parameters. Epistemic uncertainty associated with process interactions and scaling behavior is still important, and these uncertainties can be represented using an ensemble of different spatial configurations. Finally, uncertainty in forcing data can be represented using ensemble methods for spatial meteorological analysis. Our systematic

Ideas underlying quantification of margins and uncertainties(QMU): a white paper.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Helton, Jon Craig; Trucano, Timothy Guy; Pilch, Martin M.

2006-09-01

This report describes key ideas underlying the application of Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties (QMU) to nuclear weapons stockpile lifecycle decisions at Sandia National Laboratories. While QMU is a broad process and methodology for generating critical technical information to be used in stockpile management, this paper emphasizes one component, which is information produced by computational modeling and simulation. In particular, we discuss the key principles of developing QMU information in the form of Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty, the need to separate aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in QMU, and the risk-informed decision making that is best suited for decisive application of QMU. The paper is written at a high level, but provides a systematic bibliography of useful papers for the interested reader to deepen their understanding of these ideas.

Women's expectations of breast reconstruction following mastectomy for breast cancer: a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Flitcroft, Kathy; Brennan, Meagan; Spillane, Andrew

2017-08-01

Breast reconstruction (BR) makes an important positive contribution to the quality of life of many women who have undergone mastectomy for breast cancer. The purpose of this article is to evaluate the evidence for possible relationships between women's expectations of BR and their satisfaction with outcomes to inform and facilitate improved communication about BR options prior to initial surgery. A systematic review of the literature reporting expectations of BR published between 1 January 1994 and 6 March 2017 identified 2107 initial search results. Twenty-one publications, reporting 20 studies (2288 participants), satisfied the selection criteria. Information on study aim and time frame, participation rate, design/methods, limitations/bias, results and conclusions, as well as participant clinical and demographic information, was reported. An overall quality score was generated for each study. Four of five studies that quantified expectations and satisfaction found a positive relationship between the two. This may indicate a possible trend, but as 16 of the 21 included publications did not provide quantifiable data, no firm conclusions are possible. Our findings have important implications for policy and practice which are applicable to medical decision-making more broadly. There is a clear need to utilise accurate and consistent measures of patient-reported expectations and to educate both patients and health practitioners about the importance of informed discussion about treatment options. This is particularly salient for women facing a choice about BR, a major breast cancer survivorship decision. Routine use of an expectations checklist in pre-operative consultations may be useful.

Uncertainties in model-independent extractions of amplitudes from complete experiments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoblit, S.; Sandorfi, A.M.; Kamano, H.; Lee, T.-S.H.

2012-01-01

A new generation of over-complete experiments is underway, with the goal of performing a high precision extraction of pseudoscalar meson photo-production amplitudes. Such experimentally determined amplitudes can be used both as a test to validate models and as a starting point for an analytic continuation in the complex plane to search for poles. Of crucial importance for both is the level of uncertainty in the extracted multipoles. We have probed these uncertainties by analyses of pseudo-data for KLambda photoproduction, first for the set of 8 observables that have been published for the K + Lambda channel and then for pseudo-data on a complete set of 16 observables with the uncertainties expected from analyses of ongoing CLAS experiments. In fitting multipoles, we have used a combined Monte Carlo sampling of the amplitude space, with gradient minimization, and have found a shallow X 2 valley pitted with a large number of local minima. This results in bands of solutions that are experimentally indistinguishable. All ongoing experiments will measure observables with limited statistics. We have found a dependence on the particular random choice of values of Gaussian distributed pseudo-data, due to the presence of multiple local minima. This results in actual uncertainties for reconstructed multipoles that are often considerable larger than those returned by gradient minimization routines such as Minuit which find a single local minimum. As intuitively expected, this additional level of uncertainty decreases as larger numbers of observables are included.

Efficient reconstruction of contaminant release history

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Alezander, Francis [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Anghel, Marian [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Gulbahce, Natali [NON LANL; Tartakovsky, Daniel [NON LANL

2009-01-01

We present a generalized hybrid Monte Carlo (GHMC) method for fast, statistically optimal reconstruction of release histories of reactive contaminants. The approach is applicable to large-scale, strongly nonlinear systems with parametric uncertainties and data corrupted by measurement errors. The use of discrete adjoint equations facilitates numerical implementation of GHMC, without putting any restrictions on the degree of nonlinearity of advection-dispersion-reaction equations that are used to described contaminant transport in the subsurface. To demonstrate the salient features of the proposed algorithm, we identify the spatial extent of a distributed source of contamination from concentration measurements of a reactive solute.

Reconstructing ancient river dynamics from the stratigraphic record: can lessons from the past inform our future?

Science.gov (United States)

Hajek, E. A.; Chamberlin, E.; Baisden, T.

2014-12-01

The richness of the deep-time record and its potential for revealing important characteristics of ancient fluvial landscapes has been demonstrated time and again, including compelling examples of rivers altering their behavior in response to changes in vegetation patterns or abrupt shifts in water and sediment discharge. At present, reconstructions of ancient river and floodplain dynamics are commonly qualitative, and when quantitative metrics are used, it is often for comparison among ancient deposits. Without being able to reconstruct, more comprehensively, important aspects of ancient river and floodplains dynamics, this information has only anecdotal relevance for evaluating and managing present-day landscapes. While methods for reconstructing hydrodynamic and morphodynamic aspects of ancient rivers and floodplains are useful, uncertainties associated with these snapshots complicate the ability to translate observations from geologic to engineering scales, thereby limiting the utility of insight from Earth's past in decision-making and development of sustainable landscape-management practices for modern fluvial landscapes. Here, we explore the degree to which paleomorphodynamic reconstructions from ancient channel and floodplain deposits can be used to make specific, quantitative inferences about ancient river dynamics. We compare a suite of paleoenvironmental measurements from a variety of ancient fluvial deposits (including reconstructions of paleoflow depth, paleoslope, paleo-channel mobility, the caliber of paleo-sediment load, and paleo-floodplain heterogeneity) in an effort to evaluate sampling and empirical uncertainties associated with these methods and identify promising avenues for developing more detailed landscape reconstructions. This work is aimed at helping to develop strategies for extracting practicable information from the stratigraphic record that is relevant for sustainably managing and predicting changes in today's environments.

A reconstruction of global agricultural areas and land cover for the last millennium

Science.gov (United States)

Pongratz, J.; Reick, C.; Raddatz, T.; Claussen, M.

2008-09-01

Humans have substantially modified the Earth's land cover, especially by transforming natural ecosystems to agricultural areas. In preindustrial times, the expansion of agriculture was probably the dominant process by which humankind altered the Earth system, but little is known about its extent, timing, and spatial pattern. This study presents an approach to reconstruct spatially explicit changes in global agricultural areas (cropland and pasture) and the resulting changes in land cover over the last millennium. The reconstruction is based on published maps of agricultural areas for the last three centuries. For earlier times, a country-based method is developed that uses population data as a proxy for agricultural activity. With this approach, the extent of cropland and pasture is consistently estimated since AD 800. The resulting reconstruction of agricultural areas is combined with a map of potential vegetation to estimate the resulting historical changes in land cover. Uncertainties associated with this approach, in particular owing to technological progress in agriculture and uncertainties in population estimates, are quantified. About 5 million km2 of natural vegetation are found to be transformed to agriculture between AD 800 and 1700, slightly more to cropland (mainly at the expense of forested area) than to pasture (mainly at the expense of natural grasslands). Historical events such as the Black Death in Europe led to considerable dynamics in land cover change on a regional scale. The reconstruction can be used with global climate and ecosystem models to assess the impact of human activities on the Earth system in preindustrial times.

Impacts of Process and Prediction Uncertainties on Projected Hanford Waste Glass Amount

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gervasio, Vivianaluxa [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Vienna, John D. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Kim, Dong-Sang [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Kruger, Albert A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2018-02-19

Analyses were performed to evaluate the impacts of using the advanced glass models, constraints (Vienna et al. 2016), and uncertainty descriptions on projected Hanford glass mass. The maximum allowable WOL was estimated for waste compositions while simultaneously satisfying all applicable glass property and composition constraints with sufficient confidence. Different components of prediction and composition/process uncertainties were systematically included in the calculations to evaluate their impacts on glass mass. The analyses estimated the production of 23,360 MT of IHLW glass when no uncertainties were taken into accound. Accounting for prediction and composition/process uncertainties resulted in 5.01 relative percent increase in estimated glass mass 24,531 MT. Roughly equal impacts were found for prediction uncertainties (2.58 RPD) and composition/process uncertainties (2.43 RPD). ILAW mass was predicted to be 282,350 MT without uncertainty and with weaste loading “line” rules in place. Accounting for prediction and composition/process uncertainties resulted in only 0.08 relative percent increase in estimated glass mass of 282,562 MTG. Without application of line rules the glass mass decreases by 10.6 relative percent (252,490 MT) for the case with no uncertainties. Addition of prediction uncertainties increases glass mass by 1.32 relative percent and the addition of composition/process uncertainties increase glass mass by an additional 7.73 relative percent (9.06 relative percent increase combined). The glass mass estimate without line rules (275,359 MT) was 2.55 relative percent lower than that with the line rules (282,562 MT), after accounting for all applicable uncertainties.

A New Track Reconstruction Algorithm suitable for Parallel Processing based on Hit Triplets and Broken Lines

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Schöning André

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Track reconstruction in high track multiplicity environments at current and future high rate particle physics experiments is a big challenge and very time consuming. The search for track seeds and the fitting of track candidates are usually the most time consuming steps in the track reconstruction. Here, a new and fast track reconstruction method based on hit triplets is proposed which exploits a three-dimensional fit model including multiple scattering and hit uncertainties from the very start, including the search for track seeds. The hit triplet based reconstruction method assumes a homogeneous magnetic field which allows to give an analytical solutions for the triplet fit result. This method is highly parallelizable, needs fewer operations than other standard track reconstruction methods and is therefore ideal for the implementation on parallel computing architectures. The proposed track reconstruction algorithm has been studied in the context of the Mu3e-experiment and a typical LHC experiment.

Nondestructive assay uncertainties - present status and future possibilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parker, J.L.; Ensslin, N.

1989-01-01

Nondestructive assay (NDA) techniques play an important role in nuclear safeguards by providing rapid, noninvasive measurements of many nuclear materials. The development of these techniques has proceeded in parallel with the increasing need for near-real-time accountability and the increasing use of automation and robotics to save time and labor in all aspects of nuclear materials processing. Gamma-ray counting, neutron counting, and calorimetry are the most common NDA techniques. This paper discusses the random and systematic measurement uncertainties associated with the first two. It is worth nothing that the random and systematic error components encountered in NDA often have a very different origin from those encountered in destructive analysis; the random component in NDA, for example, is dominated by counting statistics

Confronting dynamics and uncertainty in optimal decision making for conservation

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Byron K.; Johnson, Fred A.

2013-06-01

The effectiveness of conservation efforts ultimately depends on the recognition that decision making, and the systems that it is designed to affect, are inherently dynamic and characterized by multiple sources of uncertainty. To cope with these challenges, conservation planners are increasingly turning to the tools of decision analysis, especially dynamic optimization methods. Here we provide a general framework for optimal, dynamic conservation and then explore its capacity for coping with various sources and degrees of uncertainty. In broadest terms, the dynamic optimization problem in conservation is choosing among a set of decision options at periodic intervals so as to maximize some conservation objective over the planning horizon. Planners must account for immediate objective returns, as well as the effect of current decisions on future resource conditions and, thus, on future decisions. Undermining the effectiveness of such a planning process are uncertainties concerning extant resource conditions (partial observability), the immediate consequences of decision choices (partial controllability), the outcomes of uncontrolled, environmental drivers (environmental variation), and the processes structuring resource dynamics (structural uncertainty). Where outcomes from these sources of uncertainty can be described in terms of probability distributions, a focus on maximizing the expected objective return, while taking state-specific actions, is an effective mechanism for coping with uncertainty. When such probability distributions are unavailable or deemed unreliable, a focus on maximizing robustness is likely to be the preferred approach. Here the idea is to choose an action (or state-dependent policy) that achieves at least some minimum level of performance regardless of the (uncertain) outcomes. We provide some examples of how the dynamic optimization problem can be framed for problems involving management of habitat for an imperiled species, conservation of a

Confronting dynamics and uncertainty in optimal decision making for conservation

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Byron K.; Johnson, Fred A.

2013-01-01

The effectiveness of conservation efforts ultimately depends on the recognition that decision making, and the systems that it is designed to affect, are inherently dynamic and characterized by multiple sources of uncertainty. To cope with these challenges, conservation planners are increasingly turning to the tools of decision analysis, especially dynamic optimization methods. Here we provide a general framework for optimal, dynamic conservation and then explore its capacity for coping with various sources and degrees of uncertainty. In broadest terms, the dynamic optimization problem in conservation is choosing among a set of decision options at periodic intervals so as to maximize some conservation objective over the planning horizon. Planners must account for immediate objective returns, as well as the effect of current decisions on future resource conditions and, thus, on future decisions. Undermining the effectiveness of such a planning process are uncertainties concerning extant resource conditions (partial observability), the immediate consequences of decision choices (partial controllability), the outcomes of uncontrolled, environmental drivers (environmental variation), and the processes structuring resource dynamics (structural uncertainty). Where outcomes from these sources of uncertainty can be described in terms of probability distributions, a focus on maximizing the expected objective return, while taking state-specific actions, is an effective mechanism for coping with uncertainty. When such probability distributions are unavailable or deemed unreliable, a focus on maximizing robustness is likely to be the preferred approach. Here the idea is to choose an action (or state-dependent policy) that achieves at least some minimum level of performance regardless of the (uncertain) outcomes. We provide some examples of how the dynamic optimization problem can be framed for problems involving management of habitat for an imperiled species, conservation of a

Confronting dynamics and uncertainty in optimal decision making for conservation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Williams, Byron K; Johnson, Fred A

2013-01-01

The effectiveness of conservation efforts ultimately depends on the recognition that decision making, and the systems that it is designed to affect, are inherently dynamic and characterized by multiple sources of uncertainty. To cope with these challenges, conservation planners are increasingly turning to the tools of decision analysis, especially dynamic optimization methods. Here we provide a general framework for optimal, dynamic conservation and then explore its capacity for coping with various sources and degrees of uncertainty. In broadest terms, the dynamic optimization problem in conservation is choosing among a set of decision options at periodic intervals so as to maximize some conservation objective over the planning horizon. Planners must account for immediate objective returns, as well as the effect of current decisions on future resource conditions and, thus, on future decisions. Undermining the effectiveness of such a planning process are uncertainties concerning extant resource conditions (partial observability), the immediate consequences of decision choices (partial controllability), the outcomes of uncontrolled, environmental drivers (environmental variation), and the processes structuring resource dynamics (structural uncertainty). Where outcomes from these sources of uncertainty can be described in terms of probability distributions, a focus on maximizing the expected objective return, while taking state-specific actions, is an effective mechanism for coping with uncertainty. When such probability distributions are unavailable or deemed unreliable, a focus on maximizing robustness is likely to be the preferred approach. Here the idea is to choose an action (or state-dependent policy) that achieves at least some minimum level of performance regardless of the (uncertain) outcomes. We provide some examples of how the dynamic optimization problem can be framed for problems involving management of habitat for an imperiled species, conservation of a

Optimal design and uncertainty quantification in blood flow simulations for congenital heart disease

Science.gov (United States)

Marsden, Alison

2009-11-01

Recent work has demonstrated substantial progress in capabilities for patient-specific cardiovascular flow simulations. Recent advances include increasingly complex geometries, physiological flow conditions, and fluid structure interaction. However inputs to these simulations, including medical image data, catheter-derived pressures and material properties, can have significant uncertainties associated with them. For simulations to predict clinically useful and reliable output information, it is necessary to quantify the effects of input uncertainties on outputs of interest. In addition, blood flow simulation tools can now be efficiently coupled to shape optimization algorithms for surgery design applications, and these tools should incorporate uncertainty information. We present a unified framework to systematically and efficient account for uncertainties in simulations using adaptive stochastic collocation. In addition, we present a framework for derivative-free optimization of cardiovascular geometries, and layer these tools to perform optimization under uncertainty. These methods are demonstrated using simulations and surgery optimization to improve hemodynamics in pediatric cardiology applications.

Risk assessment under deep uncertainty: A methodological comparison

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shortridge, Julie; Aven, Terje; Guikema, Seth

2017-01-01

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) has proven to be an invaluable tool for evaluating risks in complex engineered systems. However, there is increasing concern that PRA may not be adequate in situations with little underlying knowledge to support probabilistic representation of uncertainties. As analysts and policy makers turn their attention to deeply uncertain hazards such as climate change, a number of alternatives to traditional PRA have been proposed. This paper systematically compares three diverse approaches for risk analysis under deep uncertainty (qualitative uncertainty factors, probability bounds, and robust decision making) in terms of their representation of uncertain quantities, analytical output, and implications for risk management. A simple example problem is used to highlight differences in the way that each method relates to the traditional risk assessment process and fundamental issues associated with risk assessment and description. We find that the implications for decision making are not necessarily consistent between approaches, and that differences in the representation of uncertain quantities and analytical output suggest contexts in which each method may be most appropriate. Finally, each methodology demonstrates how risk assessment can inform decision making in deeply uncertain contexts, informing more effective responses to risk problems characterized by deep uncertainty. - Highlights: • We compare three diverse approaches to risk assessment under deep uncertainty. • A simple example problem highlights differences in analytical process and results. • Results demonstrate how methodological choices can impact risk assessment results.

The deuteron-radius puzzle is alive: A new analysis of nuclear structure uncertainties

Science.gov (United States)

Hernandez, O. J.; Ekström, A.; Nevo Dinur, N.; Ji, C.; Bacca, S.; Barnea, N.

2018-03-01

To shed light on the deuteron radius puzzle we analyze the theoretical uncertainties of the nuclear structure corrections to the Lamb shift in muonic deuterium. We find that the discrepancy between the calculated two-photon exchange correction and the corresponding experimentally inferred value by Pohl et al. [1] remain. The present result is consistent with our previous estimate, although the discrepancy is reduced from 2.6 σ to about 2 σ. The error analysis includes statistic as well as systematic uncertainties stemming from the use of nucleon-nucleon interactions derived from chiral effective field theory at various orders. We therefore conclude that nuclear theory uncertainty is more likely not the source of the discrepancy.

Field reconstruction and estimation of the antenna support structure effect on the measurement uncertainty of the BTS1940 antenna

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cappellin, Cecilia; Pivnenko, Sergey

2014-01-01

the effect of the support structure on the measured field, by reconstructing the currents induced on the support frame with DIATOOL. The field obtained by filtering these currents is presented. Moreover, the spatial resolution obtained by the 3D reconstruction is discussed and compared with the one obtained...

BUMPER: the Bayesian User-friendly Model for Palaeo-Environmental Reconstruction

Science.gov (United States)

Holden, Phil; Birks, John; Brooks, Steve; Bush, Mark; Hwang, Grace; Matthews-Bird, Frazer; Valencia, Bryan; van Woesik, Robert

2017-04-01

We describe the Bayesian User-friendly Model for Palaeo-Environmental Reconstruction (BUMPER), a Bayesian transfer function for inferring past climate and other environmental variables from microfossil assemblages. The principal motivation for a Bayesian approach is that the palaeoenvironment is treated probabilistically, and can be updated as additional data become available. Bayesian approaches therefore provide a reconstruction-specific quantification of the uncertainty in the data and in the model parameters. BUMPER is fully self-calibrating, straightforward to apply, and computationally fast, requiring 2 seconds to build a 100-taxon model from a 100-site training-set on a standard personal computer. We apply the model's probabilistic framework to generate thousands of artificial training-sets under ideal assumptions. We then use these to demonstrate both the general applicability of the model and the sensitivity of reconstructions to the characteristics of the training-set, considering assemblage richness, taxon tolerances, and the number of training sites. We demonstrate general applicability to real data, considering three different organism types (chironomids, diatoms, pollen) and different reconstructed variables. In all of these applications an identically configured model is used, the only change being the input files that provide the training-set environment and taxon-count data.

Jet Mass Reconstruction with the ATLAS Detector in Run 2

CERN Document Server

Jansky, Roland; The ATLAS collaboration

2016-01-01

The details of the ATLAS jet mass reconstruction and calibration are presented. In particular, the jet mass scale is calibrated using Monte Carlo simulation for large-radius groomed jets. Corresponding uncertainties are presented. An alternative jet mass definition that incorporates tracking information called the track-assisted jet mass is introduced and its performance is compared to the traditional calorimeter-only jet mass definition. An outlook on future improvments is also given.

Network reconstruction via graph blending

Science.gov (United States)

Estrada, Rolando

2016-05-01

Graphs estimated from empirical data are often noisy and incomplete due to the difficulty of faithfully observing all the components (nodes and edges) of the true graph. This problem is particularly acute for large networks where the number of components may far exceed available surveillance capabilities. Errors in the observed graph can render subsequent analyses invalid, so it is vital to develop robust methods that can minimize these observational errors. Errors in the observed graph may include missing and spurious components, as well fused (multiple nodes are merged into one) and split (a single node is misinterpreted as many) nodes. Traditional graph reconstruction methods are only able to identify missing or spurious components (primarily edges, and to a lesser degree nodes), so we developed a novel graph blending framework that allows us to cast the full estimation problem as a simple edge addition/deletion problem. Armed with this framework, we systematically investigate the viability of various topological graph features, such as the degree distribution or the clustering coefficients, and existing graph reconstruction methods for tackling the full estimation problem. Our experimental results suggest that incorporating any topological feature as a source of information actually hinders reconstruction accuracy. We provide a theoretical analysis of this phenomenon and suggest several avenues for improving this estimation problem.

Integration of Trace Images in Three-dimensional Crime Scene Reconstruction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Quentin Milliet

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Forensic image analysis has greatly developed with the proliferation of photography and video recording devices. Trace images of serious incidents are increasingly captured by first responders, witnesses, bystanders, or surveillance systems. Image perception is exposed with a special emphasis on the influence of the field of view on observation. In response to the pitfalls of the mental eye, a way to systematize the integration of images as traces in three-dimensional crime scene reconstruction is proposed. The systematic approach is based on the application of photogrammetric principles to slightly modify the usual photographic documentation as well as on the early collection and review of available trace images. The integration of images as traces provides valuable contributions to contextualize what happened at a crime scene based on the information that can be obtained from images. In a wider perspective, the systematic analysis of images fosters the use and interpretation of forensic evidence to complement witness statements in the criminal justice system. This article outlines the benefits of integrating trace images into a coherent reconstruction framework in order to improve interpretation of their content. A solution is proposed to integrate perception differences between the field of view of cameras and the human eye.

Measurement Uncertainty Evaluation in Dimensional X-ray Computed Tomography Using the Bootstrap Method

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hiller, Jochen; Genta, Gianfranco; Barbato, Giulio

2014-01-01

measurement processes, e.g., with tactile systems, also due to factors related to systematic errors, mainly caused by specific CT image characteristics. In this paper we propose a simulation-based framework for measurement uncertainty evaluation in dimensional CT using the bootstrap method. In a case study...... the problem concerning measurement uncertainties was addressed with bootstrap and successfully applied to ball-bar CT measurements. Results obtained enabled extension to more complex shapes such as actual industrial components as we show by tests on a hollow cylinder workpiece....

Track reconstruction for the P2 experiment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tyukin, Alexey [JGU, Mainz (Germany); Collaboration: P2-Collaboration

2016-07-01

The P2 experiment at the future MESA accelerator in Mainz will measure elastically scattered electrons from a hydrogen or lead target in order to determine the parity violating asymmetry for different beam polarisations, which is created due to the weak charge of the target. The asymmetry can provide access to the Weinberg angle and the neutron skin of heavy nuclei. These quantities depend heavily on the momentum transfer Q{sup 2}, thus a reconstruction of single electron tracks in an inhomogeneous magnetic field is necessary. For this, the P2 detector will have four tracking planes of thin high voltage monolithic active pixel sensors (HV-MAPS). The scattered electrons propagate through a magnetic field and hit all four planes. In order to fit the hit positions the General Broken Lines method is used. As a fast propagator, a variation of the Runge-Kutta algorithm is applied, which solves the equation of motion in an inhomogeneous magnetic field numerically, such that the final state momentum and scattering angle can be reconstructed. The initial momentum and incident angle can vary strongly due to the thickness of the target, limiting the reconstruction quality. The average single track Q{sup 2} value of 0.006 GeV{sup 2}/c{sup 2} can be reconstructed with about 4 % uncertainty in a first analysis of the Geant4 simulation, leading to a high total precision due to large electron numbers in the experiment.

Aerosol-type retrieval and uncertainty quantification from OMI data

Science.gov (United States)

Kauppi, Anu; Kolmonen, Pekka; Laine, Marko; Tamminen, Johanna

2017-11-01

We discuss uncertainty quantification for aerosol-type selection in satellite-based atmospheric aerosol retrieval. The retrieval procedure uses precalculated aerosol microphysical models stored in look-up tables (LUTs) and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) spectral reflectance measurements to solve the aerosol characteristics. The forward model approximations cause systematic differences between the modelled and observed reflectance. Acknowledging this model discrepancy as a source of uncertainty allows us to produce more realistic uncertainty estimates and assists the selection of the most appropriate LUTs for each individual retrieval.This paper focuses on the aerosol microphysical model selection and characterisation of uncertainty in the retrieved aerosol type and aerosol optical depth (AOD). The concept of model evidence is used as a tool for model comparison. The method is based on Bayesian inference approach, in which all uncertainties are described as a posterior probability distribution. When there is no single best-matching aerosol microphysical model, we use a statistical technique based on Bayesian model averaging to combine AOD posterior probability densities of the best-fitting models to obtain an averaged AOD estimate. We also determine the shared evidence of the best-matching models of a certain main aerosol type in order to quantify how plausible it is that it represents the underlying atmospheric aerosol conditions.The developed method is applied to Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) measurements using a multiwavelength approach for retrieving the aerosol type and AOD estimate with uncertainty quantification for cloud-free over-land pixels. Several larger pixel set areas were studied in order to investigate the robustness of the developed method. We evaluated the retrieved AOD by comparison with ground-based measurements at example sites. We found that the uncertainty of AOD expressed by posterior probability distribution reflects the difficulty in model

Aerosol-type retrieval and uncertainty quantification from OMI data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Kauppi

2017-11-01

Full Text Available We discuss uncertainty quantification for aerosol-type selection in satellite-based atmospheric aerosol retrieval. The retrieval procedure uses precalculated aerosol microphysical models stored in look-up tables (LUTs and top-of-atmosphere (TOA spectral reflectance measurements to solve the aerosol characteristics. The forward model approximations cause systematic differences between the modelled and observed reflectance. Acknowledging this model discrepancy as a source of uncertainty allows us to produce more realistic uncertainty estimates and assists the selection of the most appropriate LUTs for each individual retrieval.This paper focuses on the aerosol microphysical model selection and characterisation of uncertainty in the retrieved aerosol type and aerosol optical depth (AOD. The concept of model evidence is used as a tool for model comparison. The method is based on Bayesian inference approach, in which all uncertainties are described as a posterior probability distribution. When there is no single best-matching aerosol microphysical model, we use a statistical technique based on Bayesian model averaging to combine AOD posterior probability densities of the best-fitting models to obtain an averaged AOD estimate. We also determine the shared evidence of the best-matching models of a certain main aerosol type in order to quantify how plausible it is that it represents the underlying atmospheric aerosol conditions.The developed method is applied to Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI measurements using a multiwavelength approach for retrieving the aerosol type and AOD estimate with uncertainty quantification for cloud-free over-land pixels. Several larger pixel set areas were studied in order to investigate the robustness of the developed method. We evaluated the retrieved AOD by comparison with ground-based measurements at example sites. We found that the uncertainty of AOD expressed by posterior probability distribution reflects the

Decoherence effect on quantum-memory-assisted entropic uncertainty relations

Science.gov (United States)

Ming, Fei; Wang, Dong; Huang, Ai-Jun; Sun, Wen-Yang; Ye, Liu

2018-01-01

Uncertainty principle significantly provides a bound to predict precision of measurement with regard to any two incompatible observables, and thereby plays a nontrivial role in quantum precision measurement. In this work, we observe the dynamical features of the quantum-memory-assisted entropic uncertainty relations (EUR) for a pair of incompatible measurements in an open system characterized by local generalized amplitude damping (GAD) noises. Herein, we derive the dynamical evolution of the entropic uncertainty with respect to the measurement affecting by the canonical GAD noises when particle A is initially entangled with quantum memory B. Specifically, we examine the dynamics of EUR in the frame of three realistic scenarios: one case is that particle A is affected by environmental noise (GAD) while particle B as quantum memory is free from any noises, another case is that particle B is affected by the external noise while particle A is not, and the last case is that both of the particles suffer from the noises. By analytical methods, it turns out that the uncertainty is not full dependent of quantum correlation evolution of the composite system consisting of A and B, but the minimal conditional entropy of the measured subsystem. Furthermore, we present a possible physical interpretation for the behavior of the uncertainty evolution by means of the mixedness of the observed system; we argue that the uncertainty might be dramatically correlated with the systematic mixedness. Furthermore, we put forward a simple and effective strategy to reduce the measuring uncertainty of interest upon quantum partially collapsed measurement. Therefore, our explorations might offer an insight into the dynamics of the entropic uncertainty relation in a realistic system, and be of importance to quantum precision measurement during quantum information processing.

Radiotherapy for breast cancer: respiratory and set-up uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saliou, M.G.; Giraud, P.; Simon, L.; Fournier-Bidoz, N.; Fourquet, A.; Dendale, R.; Rosenwald, J.C.; Cosset, J.M.

2005-01-01

Adjuvant Radiotherapy has been shown to significantly reduce locoregional recurrence but this advantage is associated with increased cardiovascular and pulmonary morbidities. All uncertainties inherent to conformal radiation therapy must be identified in order to increase the precision of treatment; misestimation of these uncertainties increases the potential risk of geometrical misses with, as a consequence, under-dosage of the tumor and/or overdosage of healthy tissues. Geometric uncertainties due to respiratory movements or set-up errors are well known. Two strategies have been proposed to limit their effect: quantification of these uncertainties, which are then taken into account in the final calculation of safety margins and/or reduction of respiratory and set-up uncertainties by an efficient immobilization or gating systems. Measured on portal films with two tangential fields. CLD (central lung distance), defined as the distance between the deep field edge and the interior chest wall at the central axis, seems to be the best predictor of set-up uncertainties. Using CLD, estimated mean set-up errors from the literature are 3.8 and 3.2 mm for the systematic and random errors respectively. These depend partly on the type of immobilization device and could be reduced by the use of portal imaging systems. Furthermore, breast is mobile during respiration with motion amplitude as high as 0.8 to 10 mm in the anteroposterior direction. Respiratory gating techniques, currently on evaluation, have the potential to reduce effect of these movements. Each radiotherapy department should perform its own assessments and determine the geometric uncertainties with respect of the equipment used and its particular treatment practices. This paper is a review of the main geometric uncertainties in breast treatment, due to respiration and set-up, and solutions proposed to limit their impact. (author)

Reconstructing phylogenetic networks using maximum parsimony.

Science.gov (United States)

Nakhleh, Luay; Jin, Guohua; Zhao, Fengmei; Mellor-Crummey, John

2005-01-01

Phylogenies - the evolutionary histories of groups of organisms - are one of the most widely used tools throughout the life sciences, as well as objects of research within systematics, evolutionary biology, epidemiology, etc. Almost every tool devised to date to reconstruct phylogenies produces trees; yet it is widely understood and accepted that trees oversimplify the evolutionary histories of many groups of organims, most prominently bacteria (because of horizontal gene transfer) and plants (because of hybrid speciation). Various methods and criteria have been introduced for phylogenetic tree reconstruction. Parsimony is one of the most widely used and studied criteria, and various accurate and efficient heuristics for reconstructing trees based on parsimony have been devised. Jotun Hein suggested a straightforward extension of the parsimony criterion to phylogenetic networks. In this paper we formalize this concept, and provide the first experimental study of the quality of parsimony as a criterion for constructing and evaluating phylogenetic networks. Our results show that, when extended to phylogenetic networks, the parsimony criterion produces promising results. In a great majority of the cases in our experiments, the parsimony criterion accurately predicts the numbers and placements of non-tree events.

On the uncertainty inequality as applied to discrete signals

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. V. Venkatesh

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Given a continuous-time bandlimited signal, the Shannon sampling theorem provides an interpolation scheme for exactly reconstructing it from its discrete samples. We analyze the relationship between concentration (or compactness in the temporal/spectral domains of the (i continuous-time and (ii discrete-time signals. The former is governed by the Heisenberg uncertainty inequality which prescribes a lower bound on the product of effective temporal and spectral spreads of the signal. On the other hand, the discrete-time counterpart seems to exhibit some strange properties, and this provides motivation for the present paper. We consider the following problem: for a bandlimited signal, can the uncertainty inequality be expressed in terms of the samples, using thestandard definitions of the temporal and spectral spreads of the signal? In contrast with the results of the literature, we present a new approach to solve this problem. We also present a comparison of the results obtained using the proposed definitions with those available in the literature.

Estimation of Peaking Factor Uncertainty due to Manufacturing Tolerance using Statistical Sampling Method

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Kyung Hoon; Park, Ho Jin; Lee, Chung Chan; Cho, Jin Young [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-10-15

The purpose of this paper is to study the effect on output parameters in the lattice physics calculation due to the last input uncertainty such as manufacturing deviations from nominal value for material composition and geometric dimensions. In a nuclear design and analysis, the lattice physics calculations are usually employed to generate lattice parameters for the nodal core simulation and pin power reconstruction. These lattice parameters which consist of homogenized few-group cross-sections, assembly discontinuity factors, and form-functions can be affected by input uncertainties which arise from three different sources: 1) multi-group cross-section uncertainties, 2) the uncertainties associated with methods and modeling approximations utilized in lattice physics codes, and 3) fuel/assembly manufacturing uncertainties. In this paper, data provided by the light water reactor (LWR) uncertainty analysis in modeling (UAM) benchmark has been used as the manufacturing uncertainties. First, the effect of each input parameter has been investigated through sensitivity calculations at the fuel assembly level. Then, uncertainty in prediction of peaking factor due to the most sensitive input parameter has been estimated using the statistical sampling method, often called the brute force method. For our analysis, the two-dimensional transport lattice code DeCART2D and its ENDF/B-VII.1 based 47-group library were used to perform the lattice physics calculation. Sensitivity calculations have been performed in order to study the influence of manufacturing tolerances on the lattice parameters. The manufacturing tolerance that has the largest influence on the k-inf is the fuel density. The second most sensitive parameter is the outer clad diameter.

Model structural uncertainty quantification and hydrologic parameter and prediction error analysis using airborne electromagnetic data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Minsley, B. J.; Christensen, Nikolaj Kruse; Christensen, Steen

Model structure, or the spatial arrangement of subsurface lithological units, is fundamental to the hydrological behavior of Earth systems. Knowledge of geological model structure is critically important in order to make informed hydrological predictions and management decisions. Model structure...... is never perfectly known, however, and incorrect assumptions can be a significant source of error when making model predictions. We describe a systematic approach for quantifying model structural uncertainty that is based on the integration of sparse borehole observations and large-scale airborne...... electromagnetic (AEM) data. Our estimates of model structural uncertainty follow a Bayesian framework that accounts for both the uncertainties in geophysical parameter estimates given AEM data, and the uncertainties in the relationship between lithology and geophysical parameters. Using geostatistical sequential...

Projecting future air pollution-related mortality under a changing climate: progress, uncertainties and research needs.

Science.gov (United States)

Madaniyazi, Lina; Guo, Yuming; Yu, Weiwei; Tong, Shilu

2015-02-01

Climate change may affect mortality associated with air pollutants, especially for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3). Projection studies of such kind involve complicated modelling approaches with uncertainties. We conducted a systematic review of researches and methods for projecting future PM2.5-/O3-related mortality to identify the uncertainties and optimal approaches for handling uncertainty. A literature search was conducted in October 2013, using the electronic databases: PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 to September 2013. Fifteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most studies reported that an increase of climate change-induced PM2.5 and O3 may result in an increase in mortality. However, little research has been conducted in developing countries with high emissions and dense populations. Additionally, health effects induced by PM2.5 may dominate compared to those caused by O3, but projection studies of PM2.5-related mortality are fewer than those of O3-related mortality. There is a considerable variation in approaches of scenario-based projection researches, which makes it difficult to compare results. Multiple scenarios, models and downscaling methods have been used to reduce uncertainties. However, few studies have discussed what the main source of uncertainties is and which uncertainty could be most effectively reduced. Projecting air pollution-related mortality requires a systematic consideration of assumptions and uncertainties, which will significantly aid policymakers in efforts to manage potential impacts of PM2.5 and O3 on mortality in the context of climate change. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Approaches for treating uncertainty in the long term performance assessment of a geological waste repository in clay

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marivoet, J.; Volckaert, G.; Wemaere, I.; Mallants, D.

1998-01-01

In Belgium the current strategy for high-level waste disposal is the geological disposal in a plastic clay layer. The performance assessment approach consists of a systematic scenario selection based on the FEP (features, events and processes) methodology followed by consequence analyses for the selected scenarios. In these consequence analyses the different sources of uncertainty are systematically considered. For the normal evolution scenario, i.e. the scenario which includes all FEP's which are about certain to occur, a stochastic technique of the Monte Carlo type is applied for treating uncertainty. For the altered evolution scenarios a deterministic approach is generally used to evaluate the uncertainties on the long-term. In the case of altered evolution scenarios, comparisons of fluxes from the far field into the biosphere with those calculated for the normal evolution scenario are used, beside dose calculations, to evaluate the safety consequences. Some typical examples of the above approaches will be presented. (author)

Stereo-vision and 3D reconstruction for nuclear mobile robots

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lecoeur-Taibi, I.; Vacherand, F.; Rivallin, P.

1991-01-01

In order to perceive the geometric structure of the surrounding environment of a mobile robot, a 3D reconstruction system has been developed. Its main purpose is to provide geometric information to an operator who has to telepilot the vehicle in a nuclear power plant. The perception system is split into two parts: the vision part and the map building part. Vision is enhanced with a fusion process that rejects bas samples over space and time. The vision is based on trinocular stereo-vision which provides a range image of the image contours. It performs line contour correlation on horizontal image pairs and vertical image pairs. The results are then spatially fused in order to have one distance image, with a quality independent of the orientation of the contour. The 3D reconstruction is based on grid-based sensor fusion. As the robot moves and perceives its environment, distance data is accumulated onto a regular square grid, taking into account the uncertainty of the sensor through a sensor measurement statistical model. This approach allows both spatial and temporal fusion. Uncertainty due to sensor position and robot position is also integrated into the absolute local map. This system is modular and generic and can integrate 2D laser range finder and active vision. (author)

The Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project: Overview

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haerer, H.A.; Freshley, M.D.; Gilbert, R.O.; Morgan, L.G.; Napier, B.A.; Rhoads, R.E.; Woodruff, R.K.

1990-01-01

In 1988, researchers began a multiyear effort to estimate radiation doses that people could have received since 1944 at the U.S. Department of Energy's Hanford Site. The study was prompted by increasing concern about potential health effects to the public from more than 40 yr of nuclear activities. We will provide an overview of the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project and its technical approach. The work has required development of new methods and tools for dealing with unique technical and communication challenges. Scientists are using a probabilistic, rather than the more typical deterministic, approach to generate dose distributions rather than single-point estimates. Uncertainties in input parameters are reflected in dose results. Sensitivity analyses are used to optimize project resources and define the project's scope. An independent technical steering panel directs and approves the work in a public forum. Dose estimates are based on review and analysis of historical data related to operations, effluents, and monitoring; determination of important radionuclides; and reconstruction of source terms, environmental conditions that affected transport, concentrations in environmental media, and human elements, such as population distribution, agricultural practices, food consumption patterns, and lifestyles. A companion paper in this volume, The Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project: Technical Approach, describes the computational framework for the work

An analysis of combined standard uncertainty for radiochemical measurements of environmental samples

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berne, A.

1996-01-01

It is anticipated that future data acquisitions intended for use in radiological risk assessments will require the incorporation of uncertainty analysis. Often, only one aliquot of the sample is taken and a single determination is made. Under these circumstances, the total uncertainty is calculated using the open-quotes propagation of errorsclose quotes approach. However, there is no agreement in the radioanalytical community as to the exact equations to use. The Quality Assurance/Metrology Division of the Environmental Measurements Laboratory has developed a systematic process to compute uncertainties in constituent components of the analytical procedure, as well as the combined standard uncertainty (CSU). The equations for computation are presented here, with examples of their use. They have also been incorporated into a code for use in the spreadsheet application, QuattroPro trademark. Using the spreadsheet with appropriate inputs permits an analysis of the variations in the CSU as a function of several different variables. The relative importance of the open-quotes counting uncertaintyclose quotes can also be ascertained

How well do elderly people cope with uncertainty in a learning task?

Science.gov (United States)

Chasseigne, G; Grau, S; Mullet, E; Cama, V

1999-11-01

The relation between age, task complexity and learning performance in a Multiple Cue Probability Learning task was studied by systematically varying the level of uncertainty present in the task, keeping constant the direction of relationships. Four age groups were constituted: young adults (mean age = 21), middle-aged adults (45), elderly people (69) and very elderly people (81). Five uncertainty levels were considered: predictability = 0.96, 0.80, 0.64, 0.48, and 0.32. All relationships involved were direct ones. A strong effect of uncertainty on 'control', a measure of the subject's consistency with respect to a linear model, was found. This effect was essentially a linear one. To each decrement in predictability of the task corresponded an equal decrement in participants' level of control. This level of decrement was the same, regardless of the age of the participant. It can be concluded that elderly people cope with uncertainty in probability learning tasks as well as young adults.

Impacts of Process and Prediction Uncertainties on Projected Hanford Waste Glass Amount

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gervasio, V.; Kim, D. S.; Vienna, J. D.; Kruger, A. A.

2018-03-08

Analyses were performed to evaluate the impacts of using the advanced glass models, constraints (Vienna et al. 2016), and uncertainty descriptions on projected Hanford glass mass. The maximum allowable waste oxide loading (WOL) was estimated for waste compositions while simultaneously satisfying all applicable glass property and composition constraints with sufficient confidence. Different components of prediction and composition/process uncertainties were systematically included in the calculations to evaluate their impacts on glass mass. The analyses estimated the production of 23,360 MT of immobilized high-level waste (IHLW) glass when no uncertainties were taken into account. Accounting for prediction and composition/process uncertainties resulted in 5.01 relative percent increase in estimated glass mass of 24,531 MT. Roughly equal impacts were found for prediction uncertainties (2.58 RPD) and composition/process uncertainties (2.43 RPD). The immobilized low-activity waste (ILAW) mass was predicted to be 282,350 MT without uncertainty and with waste loading “line” rules in place. Accounting for prediction and composition/process uncertainties resulted in only 0.08 relative percent increase in estimated glass mass of 282,562 MT. Without application of line rules the glass mass decreases by 10.6 relative percent (252,490 MT) for the case with no uncertainties. Addition of prediction uncertainties increases glass mass by 1.32 relative percent and the addition of composition/process uncertainties increase glass mass by an additional 7.73 relative percent (9.06 relative percent increase combined). The glass mass estimate without line rules (275,359 MT) was 2.55 relative percent lower than that with the line rules (282,562 MT), after accounting for all applicable uncertainties.

Analysis of the effect of the uncertainties geometrical in treatment prostate with tomotheraphy helical

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sevillano Martinez, D.; Minguez Aguilar, C.; Sanchez Jimenez, A.; Sanchez Reyes, A.

2015-01-01

this work has of two parts: first is have evaluated the uncertainties geometric of 27 patients of prostate of our unit to starting of the corrections daily produced through a Protocol online with MVCT. On these corrections is has simulated a Protocol offline NAL (not Action Level) on the first three sessions. To these uncertainties is you have added a uncertainties systematic of stroke equal to the published by Van Herk (IJORBP, 1999). Is simulated also our Protocol online assuming as only source of errors systematic those from of the contouring, while that as errors random is meant value of SD = 2 mm in all the directions as estimate of the movement intra fraction of the prostate. The second part consists of the simulation of these Protocols about 20 plans real of TomoTherapy. For every Protocol analyzed is got 4000 histogram dose volume. To split of these histograms we get to your time histograms population dose of three metrics, the equivalent uniform dose widespread summarized in a single value radiobiological effects of the dose distribution on PTV, the minimum dose and the average dose. (Author)

Direct reconstruction and associated uncertainties of 192Ir source dwell positions in ring applicators using gafchromic film in the treatment planning of HDR brachytherapy cervix patients

Science.gov (United States)

Awunor, O. A.; Dixon, B.; Walker, C.

2013-05-01

This paper details a practical method for the direct reconstruction of high dose rate 192Ir source dwell positions in ring applicators using gafchromic film in the treatment planning of brachytherapy cervix patients. It also details the uncertainties associated with such a process. Eight Nucletron interstitial ring applicators—Ø26 mm (×4), Ø30 mm (×3) and Ø34 mm (×1), and one 60 mm intrauterine tube were used in this study. RTQA2 and XRQA2 gafchromic films were irradiated at pre-programmed dwell positions with three successive 192Ir sources and used to derive the coordinates of the source dwell positions. The source was observed to deviate significantly from its expected position by up to 6.1 mm in all ring sizes. Significant inter applicator differences of up to 2.6 mm were observed between a subset of ring applicators. Also, the measured data were observed to differ significantly from commercially available source path models provided by Nucletron with differences of up to 3.7 mm across all ring applicator sizes. The total expanded uncertainty (k = 2) averaged over all measured dwell positions in the rings was observed to be 1.1 ± 0.1 mm (Ø26 mm and Ø30 mm rings) and 1.0 ± 0.3 mm (Ø34 mm ring) respectively, and when transferred to the treatment planning system, equated to maximum %dose changes of 1.9%, 13.2% and 1.5% at regions representative of the parametrium, lateral fornix and organs at risk respectively.

Analysis of errors in spectral reconstruction with a Laplace transform pair model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Archer, B.R.; Bushong, S.C.

1985-01-01

The sensitivity of a Laplace transform pair model for spectral reconstruction to random errors in attenuation measurements of diagnostic x-ray units has been investigated. No spectral deformation or significant alteration resulted from the simulated attenuation errors. It is concluded that the range of spectral uncertainties to be expected from the application of this model is acceptable for most scientific applications. (author)

Toward a definition of intolerance of uncertainty: a review of factor analytical studies of the Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Birrell, Jane; Meares, Kevin; Wilkinson, Andrew; Freeston, Mark

2011-11-01

Since its emergence in the early 1990s, a narrow but concentrated body of research has developed examining the role of intolerance of uncertainty (IU) in worry, and yet we still know little about its phenomenology. In an attempt to clarify our understanding of this construct, this paper traces the way in which our understanding and definition of IU have evolved throughout the literature. This paper also aims to further our understanding of IU by exploring the latent variables measures by the Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale (IUS; Freeston, Rheaume, Letarte, Dugas & Ladouceur, 1994). A review of the literature surrounding IU confirmed that the current definitions are categorical and lack specificity. A critical review of existing factor analytic studies was carried out in order to determine the underlying factors measured by the IUS. Systematic searches yielded 9 papers for review. Two factors with 12 consistent items emerged throughout the exploratory studies, and the stability of models containing these two factors was demonstrated in subsequent confirmatory studies. It is proposed that these factors represent (i) desire for predictability and an active engagement in seeking certainty, and (ii) paralysis of cognition and action in the face of uncertainty. It is suggested that these factors may represent approach and avoidance responses to uncertainty. Further research is required to confirm the construct validity of these factors and to determine the stability of this structure within clinical samples. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of environmental transport models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Margulies, T.S.; Lancaster, L.E.

1985-01-01

An uncertainty and sensitivity analysis has been made of the CRAC-2 (Calculations of Reactor Accident Consequences) atmospheric transport and deposition models. Robustness and uncertainty aspects of air and ground deposited material and the relative contribution of input and model parameters were systematically studied. The underlying data structures were investigated using a multiway layout of factors over specified ranges generated via a Latin hypercube sampling scheme. The variables selected in our analysis include: weather bin, dry deposition velocity, rain washout coefficient/rain intensity, duration of release, heat content, sigma-z (vertical) plume dispersion parameter, sigma-y (crosswind) plume dispersion parameter, and mixing height. To determine the contributors to the output variability (versus distance from the site) step-wise regression analyses were performed on transformations of the spatial concentration patterns simulated. 27 references, 2 figures, 3 tables

Summary of the CEC/USDOE workshop on uncertainty analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Elderkin, C.E.; Kelly, G.N.

1990-06-01

There is uncertainty in all aspects of assessing the consequences of accidental releases of radioactive material, from understanding and describing the environmental and biological transfer processes to modeling emergency response. The need for an exchange of views and a comparison of approaches between the diverse disciplines led to the organization of a CEC/USDOE Workshop on Uncertainty Analysis held in Santa Fe, New Mexico, in November 1989. The workshop brought together specialists in a number of disciplines, including those expert in the mathematics and statistics of uncertainty analysis, in expert judgment elicitation and evaluation, and in all aspects of assessing the radiological and environmental consequences of accidental releases of radioactive material. In addition, there was participation from users of the output of accident consequences assessment in decision making and/or regulatory frameworks. The main conclusions that emerged from the workshop are summarized in this paper. These are discussed in the context of three different types of accident consequence assessment: probabilistic assessments of accident consequences undertaken as inputs to risk analyses of nuclear installations, assessments of accident consequences in real time to provide inputs to decisions on the introduction of countermeasures, and the reconstruction of doses and risks resulting form past releases of radioactive material

Balancing uncertainty of context in ERP project estimation: an approach and a case study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Daneva, Maia

2010-01-01

The increasing demand for Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) solutions as well as the high rates of troubled ERP implementations and outright cancellations calls for developing effort estimation practices to systematically deal with uncertainties in ERP projects. This paper describes an approach -

A risk assessment methodology for incorporating uncertainties using fuzzy concepts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cho, Hyo-Nam; Choi, Hyun-Ho; Kim, Yoon-Bae

2002-01-01

This paper proposes a new methodology for incorporating uncertainties using fuzzy concepts into conventional risk assessment frameworks. This paper also introduces new forms of fuzzy membership curves, designed to consider the uncertainty range that represents the degree of uncertainties involved in both probabilistic parameter estimates and subjective judgments, since it is often difficult or even impossible to precisely estimate the occurrence rate of an event in terms of one single crisp probability. It is to be noted that simple linguistic variables such as 'High/Low' and 'Good/Bad' have the limitations in quantifying the various risks inherent in construction projects, but only represent subjective mental cognition adequately. Therefore, in this paper, the statements that include some quantification with giving specific value or scale, such as 'Close to any value' or 'Higher/Lower than analyzed value', are used in order to get over the limitations. It may be stated that the proposed methodology will be very useful for the systematic and rational risk assessment of construction projects

Jet energy scale uncertainty correlations between ATLAS and CMS at 8 TeV

CERN Document Server

CMS and ATLAS Collaborations

2015-01-01

An evaluation of the correlations between ATLAS and CMS jet energy scale uncertainties is presented for $\\sqrt{s}=8$ TeV $pp$ collisions recorded in 2012. Uncertainties within each experiment are grouped based on the general type of systematic effect they are intended to cover and the means by which they are derived. Inter-experimental correlation value ranges are established for each corresponding group of uncertainty components. This correlation range is intended to cover the possible correlation values when performing combinations between the two experiments, where the most conservative value obtained from scanning over the correlation range should be used for the final combined measurement. The procedure described here is primarily aimed at single-observable analyses, and has limitations when applied to multi-observable measurements.

Toolbox for uncertainty; Introduction of adaptive heuristics as strategies for project decision making

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stingl, Verena; Geraldi, Joana

2017-01-01

This article presents adaptive heuristics as an alternative approach to navigate uncertainty in project decision-making. Adaptive heuristic are a class of simple decision strategies that have received only scant attention in project studies. Yet, they can strive in contexts of high uncertainty...... they are ‘ecologically rational’. The model builds on the individual definitions of ecological rationality and organizes them according to two types of uncertainty (‘knowable’ and ‘unknowable’). Decision problems and heuristics are furthermore grouped by decision task (choice and judgement). The article discusses...... and limited information, which are the typical project decision context. This article develops a conceptual model that supports a systematic connection between adaptive heuristics and project decisions. Individual adaptive heuristics succeed only in specific decision environments, in which...

Uncertainties in individual doses in a case-control study of thyroid cancer after the Chernobyl accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Drozdovitch, V.; Maceika, E.; Khrouch, V.; Zvonova, I.; Vlasov, O.; Bouville, A.; Cardis, E.

2007-01-01

Individual radiation doses to the thyroid were reconstructed for 2239 subjects of a case-control study of thyroid cancer among young people that was carried out in regions of Belarus and Russia contaminated by radioactive fallout from the Chernobyl accident. Although the process of dose reconstruction provides a point estimate of each subject's dose, it is obvious that there is uncertainty associated with these dose calculations. The following main sources of uncertainty in the estimated individual doses were identified: (1) shared and un-shared errors associated with parameters of the dosimetry model; and (2) un-shared errors that are associated with the variability, reliability and ability of information from the personal interviews. Besides setting up proper distributions for the parameters of the dosimetry model, inter-individual correlations were also defined to take into account shared errors. By the application of Monte Carlo simulations, a set of approximately log-normally distributed thyroid doses was obtained for each subject; the geometric standard deviations of the distributions are found to vary among individuals from 1.7 to 3.7. (authors)

Uncertainty Quantification in Alchemical Free Energy Methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Bhati, Agastya P; Wan, Shunzhou; Hu, Yuan; Sherborne, Brad; Coveney, Peter V

2018-05-02

Alchemical free energy methods have gained much importance recently from several reports of improved ligand-protein binding affinity predictions based on their implementation using molecular dynamics simulations. A large number of variants of such methods implementing different accelerated sampling techniques and free energy estimators are available, each claimed to be better than the others in its own way. However, the key features of reproducibility and quantification of associated uncertainties in such methods have barely been discussed. Here, we apply a systematic protocol for uncertainty quantification to a number of popular alchemical free energy methods, covering both absolute and relative free energy predictions. We show that a reliable measure of error estimation is provided by ensemble simulation-an ensemble of independent MD simulations-which applies irrespective of the free energy method. The need to use ensemble methods is fundamental and holds regardless of the duration of time of the molecular dynamics simulations performed.

Differentiating intolerance of uncertainty from three related but distinct constructs.

Science.gov (United States)

Rosen, Natalie O; Ivanova, Elena; Knäuper, Bärbel

2014-01-01

Individual differences in uncertainty have been associated with heightened anxiety, stress and approach-oriented coping. Intolerance of uncertainty (IU) is a trait characteristic that arises from negative beliefs about uncertainty and its consequences. Researchers have established the central role of IU in the development of problematic worry and maladaptive coping, highlighting the importance of this construct to anxiety disorders. However, there is a need to improve our understanding of the phenomenology of IU. The goal of this paper was to present hypotheses regarding the similarities and differences between IU and three related constructs--intolerance of ambiguity, uncertainty orientation, and need for cognitive closure--and to call for future empirical studies to substantiate these hypotheses. To assist with achieving this goal, we conducted a systematic review of the literature, which also served to identify current gaps in knowledge. This paper differentiates these constructs by outlining each definition and general approaches to assessment, reviewing the existing empirical relations, and proposing theoretical similarities and distinctions. Findings may assist researchers in selecting the appropriate construct to address their research questions. Future research directions for the application of these constructs, particularly within the field of clinical and health psychology, are discussed.

Methods for Assessing Uncertainties in Climate Change, Impacts and Responses (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Manning, M. R.; Swart, R.

2009-12-01

Assessing the scientific uncertainties or confidence levels for the many different aspects of climate change is particularly important because of the seriousness of potential impacts and the magnitude of economic and political responses that are needed to mitigate climate change effectively. This has made the treatment of uncertainty and confidence a key feature in the assessments carried out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Because climate change is very much a cross-disciplinary area of science, adequately dealing with uncertainties requires recognition of their wide range and different perspectives on assessing and communicating those uncertainties. The structural differences that exist across disciplines are often embedded deeply in the corresponding literature that is used as the basis for an IPCC assessment. The assessment of climate change science by the IPCC has from its outset tried to report the levels of confidence and uncertainty in the degree of understanding in both the underlying multi-disciplinary science and in projections for future climate. The growing recognition of the seriousness of this led to the formation of a detailed approach for consistent treatment of uncertainties in the IPCC’s Third Assessment Report (TAR) [Moss and Schneider, 2000]. However, in completing the TAR there remained some systematic differences between the disciplines raising concerns about the level of consistency. So further consideration of a systematic approach to uncertainties was undertaken for the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). The basis for the approach used in the AR4 was developed at an expert meeting of scientists representing many different disciplines. This led to the introduction of a broader way of addressing uncertainties in the AR4 [Manning et al., 2004] which was further refined by lengthy discussions among many IPCC Lead Authors, for over a year, resulting in a short summary of a standard approach to be followed for that

Automated track recognition and event reconstruction in nuclear emulsion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Deines-Jones, P.; Aranas, A.; Cherry, M.L.; Dugas, J.; Kudzia, D.; Nilsen, B.S.; Sengupta, K.; Waddington, C.J.; Wefel, J.P.; Wilczynska, B.; Wilczynski, H.; Wosiek, B.

1997-01-01

The major advantages of nuclear emulsion for detecting charged particles are its submicron position resolution and sensitivity to minimum ionizing particles. These must be balanced, however, against the difficult manual microscope measurement by skilled observers required for the analysis. We have developed an automated system to acquire and analyze the microscope images from emulsion chambers. Each emulsion plate is analyzed independently, allowing coincidence techniques to be used in order to reject background and estimate error rates. The system has been used to analyze a sample of high-multiplicity Pb-Pb interactions (charged particle multiplicities ∝ 1100) produced by the 158 GeV/c per nucleon 208 Pb beam at CERN. Automatically measured events agree with our best manual measurements on 97% of all the tracks. We describe the image analysis and track reconstruction techniques, and discuss the measurement and reconstruction uncertainties. (orig.)

Breast reconstruction using a latissimus dorsi flap after mastectomy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Højvig, Jens B; Bonde, Christian Torsten

2015-01-01

of 13 patients (10%) had local complications and were re-operated within the first 30 days. We observed one flap loss and only one systemic complication; a urinary tract infection. In all, 38 patients (28%) received antibiotic treatment after the operations and 27 (20%) developed a seroma at the donor...... of the clinical pathway and post-operative regimen could be future focus-points for this procedure. FUNDING: The review was performed as part of the pre-graduate research year project, "Donor-site morbidity after m. latissimus dorsi reconstruction", funded by Concordiafonden. TRIAL REGISTRATION: not relevant.......INTRODUCTION: The latissimus dorsi (LD) myocutaneous flap has long been regarded as the second choice flap for autologous breast reconstruction following a mastectomy in our department. Despite uncertainty about donor-site morbidity, it is regarded as a relatively safe procedure; moreover...

Radiologic-Pathologic Correlation: Acellular Dermal Matrix (Alloderm®) Used in Breast Reconstructive Surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Christine U; Bobr, Aleh; Torres-Mora, Jorge

2017-01-01

Acellular dermal matrix (ADM) such as Alloderm ® is sometimes used in tissue reconstruction in primary and reconstructive breast surgeries. As ADM is incorporated into the native tissues, the evolving imaging findings that would correlate with varying degrees of host migration and neoangiogenesis into the matrix can be challenging to recognize. In the setting of a palpable or clinical area of concern after breast reconstructive surgery following breast cancer, confident diagnosis of a mass representing ADM rather than recurring or developing disease can be challenging. Such diagnostic imaging uncertainties generally result in short-term imaging and clinical follow-up, but occasionally, biopsy is performed for histopathological confirmation of benignity. A case of biopsy-proven Alloderm ® is described. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first radiologic-pathologic correlation of ADM in the literature.

Integrating uncertainty propagation in GNSS radio occultation retrieval: from excess phase to atmospheric bending angle profiles

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Schwarz

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS radio occultation (RO observations are highly accurate, long-term stable data sets and are globally available as a continuous record from 2001. Essential climate variables for the thermodynamic state of the free atmosphere – such as pressure, temperature, and tropospheric water vapor profiles (involving background information – can be derived from these records, which therefore have the potential to serve as climate benchmark data. However, to exploit this potential, atmospheric profile retrievals need to be very accurate and the remaining uncertainties quantified and traced throughout the retrieval chain from raw observations to essential climate variables. The new Reference Occultation Processing System (rOPS at the Wegener Center aims to deliver such an accurate RO retrieval chain with integrated uncertainty propagation. Here we introduce and demonstrate the algorithms implemented in the rOPS for uncertainty propagation from excess phase to atmospheric bending angle profiles, for estimated systematic and random uncertainties, including vertical error correlations and resolution estimates. We estimated systematic uncertainty profiles with the same operators as used for the basic state profiles retrieval. The random uncertainty is traced through covariance propagation and validated using Monte Carlo ensemble methods. The algorithm performance is demonstrated using test day ensembles of simulated data as well as real RO event data from the satellite missions CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP; Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC; and Meteorological Operational Satellite A (MetOp. The results of the Monte Carlo validation show that our covariance propagation delivers correct uncertainty quantification from excess phase to bending angle profiles. The results from the real RO event ensembles demonstrate that the new uncertainty estimation chain performs

A method for uncertainty quantification in the life prediction of gas turbine components

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lodeby, K.; Isaksson, O.; Jaervstraat, N. [Volvo Aero Corporation, Trolhaettan (Sweden)

1998-12-31

A failure in an aircraft jet engine can have severe consequences which cannot be accepted and high requirements are therefore raised on engine reliability. Consequently, assessment of the reliability of life predictions used in design and maintenance are important. To assess the validity of the predicted life a method to quantify the contribution to the total uncertainty in the life prediction from different uncertainty sources is developed. The method is a structured approach for uncertainty quantification that uses a generic description of the life prediction process. It is based on an approximate error propagation theory combined with a unified treatment of random and systematic errors. The result is an approximate statistical distribution for the predicted life. The method is applied on life predictions for three different jet engine components. The total uncertainty became of reasonable order of magnitude and a good qualitative picture of the distribution of the uncertainty contribution from the different sources was obtained. The relative importance of the uncertainty sources differs between the three components. It is also highly dependent on the methods and assumptions used in the life prediction. Advantages and disadvantages of this method is discussed. (orig.) 11 refs.

Accuracy and precision of patient positioning for pelvic MR-only radiation therapy using digitally reconstructed radiographs

Science.gov (United States)

Kemppainen, R.; Vaara, T.; Joensuu, T.; Kiljunen, T.

2018-03-01

Background and Purpose. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has in recent years emerged as an imaging modality to drive precise contouring of targets and organs at risk in external beam radiation therapy. Moreover, recent advances in MRI enable treatment of cancer without computed tomography (CT) simulation. A commercially available MR-only solution, MRCAT, offers a single-modality approach that provides density information for dose calculation and generation of positioning reference images. We evaluated the accuracy of patient positioning based on MRCAT digitally reconstructed radiographs (DRRs) by comparing to standard CT based workflow. Materials and Methods. Twenty consecutive prostate cancer patients being treated with external beam radiation therapy were included in the study. DRRs were generated for each patient based on the planning CT and MRCAT. The accuracy assessment was performed by manually registering the DRR images to planar kV setup images using bony landmarks. A Bayesian linear mixed effects model was used to separate systematic and random components (inter- and intra-observer variation) in the assessment. In addition, method agreement was assessed using a Bland-Altman analysis. Results. The systematic difference between MRCAT and CT based patient positioning, averaged over the study population, were found to be (mean [95% CI])  -0.49 [-0.85 to  -0.13] mm, 0.11 [-0.33 to  +0.57] mm and  -0.05 [-0.23 to  +0.36] mm in vertical, longitudinal and lateral directions, respectively. The increases in total random uncertainty were estimated to be below 0.5 mm for all directions, when using MR-only workflow instead of CT. Conclusions. The MRCAT pseudo-CT method provides clinically acceptable accuracy and precision for patient positioning for pelvic radiation therapy based on planar DRR images. Furthermore, due to the reduction of geometric uncertainty, compared to dual-modality workflow, the approach is likely to improve the total

Estimation of 3D reconstruction errors in a stereo-vision system

Science.gov (United States)

Belhaoua, A.; Kohler, S.; Hirsch, E.

2009-06-01

The paper presents an approach for error estimation for the various steps of an automated 3D vision-based reconstruction procedure of manufactured workpieces. The process is based on a priori planning of the task and built around a cognitive intelligent sensory system using so-called Situation Graph Trees (SGT) as a planning tool. Such an automated quality control system requires the coordination of a set of complex processes performing sequentially data acquisition, its quantitative evaluation and the comparison with a reference model (e.g., CAD object model) in order to evaluate quantitatively the object. To ensure efficient quality control, the aim is to be able to state if reconstruction results fulfill tolerance rules or not. Thus, the goal is to evaluate independently the error for each step of the stereo-vision based 3D reconstruction (e.g., for calibration, contour segmentation, matching and reconstruction) and then to estimate the error for the whole system. In this contribution, we analyze particularly the segmentation error due to localization errors for extracted edge points supposed to belong to lines and curves composing the outline of the workpiece under evaluation. The fitting parameters describing these geometric features are used as quality measure to determine confidence intervals and finally to estimate the segmentation errors. These errors are then propagated through the whole reconstruction procedure, enabling to evaluate their effect on the final 3D reconstruction result, specifically on position uncertainties. Lastly, analysis of these error estimates enables to evaluate the quality of the 3D reconstruction, as illustrated by the shown experimental results.

Satisfactory outcomes following combined unicompartmental knee replacement and anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction.

Science.gov (United States)

Volpin, Andrea; Kini, S G; Meuffels, D E

2017-03-31

There exist limited options for treatment of patients with combined medial compartment arthritis and anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) deficiency. Ideal treatment is one that offers lasting relief of symptoms not compromising any future surgery. Unicompartmental knee replacement has shown consistently good results in the relatively young and active population, but there is a high reported incidence of failure up to 20%, if performed in ACL-deficient knees. One of the recognized treatment modality is combined ACL reconstruction and unicompartmental arthroplasty. A systematic review was conducted looking at the demographics, techniques, complications and outcome of combined ACL reconstruction with unicompartmental knee arthroplasty. A systematic literature search within the online Medline, PubMed Database, EMBASE, Web of Science, Cochrane and Google Scholar was carried out until October 2016 to identify relevant articles. A study was defined eligible if it met the following inclusion criteria: the surgical procedure combined unicompartmental knee arthroplasty and anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction; patient's clinical and/or functional outcomes were reported; any complications intra-operatively and post-operatively were reported; and the full-text articles, written in English, German, Italian, Dutch or Spanish, were available. Quality and risk of bias assessments were done using standardized criteria set. A total of 8 studies met the inclusion criteria encompassing 186 patients who were treated with simultaneous ACL reconstruction and unicompartmental knee arthroplasty. The mean age was 50.5 years (range from 44 to 56) with a mean follow-up of 37.6 months (range from 24 to 60). There was an improvement in mean Oxford Score from 27.5 to 36.8. Complications reported included tibial inlay dislocation (n = 3), conversion to a total knee arthroplasty (n = 1), infection requiring two-stage revision (n = 2), deep-vein thrombosis (n = 1), stiffness requiring

Structural Uncertainty in Antarctic sea ice simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Schneider, D. P.

2016-12-01

The inability of the vast majority of historical climate model simulations to reproduce the observed increase in Antarctic sea ice has motivated many studies about the quality of the observational record, the role of natural variability versus forced changes, and the possibility of missing or inadequate forcings in the models (such as freshwater discharge from thinning ice shelves or an inadequate magnitude of stratospheric ozone depletion). In this presentation I will highlight another source of uncertainty that has received comparatively little attention: Structural uncertainty, that is, the systematic uncertainty in simulated sea ice trends that arises from model physics and mean-state biases. Using two large ensembles of experiments from the Community Earth System Model (CESM), I will show that the model is predisposed towards producing negative Antarctic sea ice trends during 1979-present, and that this outcome is not simply because the model's decadal variability is out-of-synch with that in nature. In the "Tropical Pacific Pacemaker" ensemble, in which observed tropical Pacific SST anomalies are prescribed, the model produces very realistic atmospheric circulation trends over the Southern Ocean, yet the sea ice trend is negative in every ensemble member. However, if the ensemble-mean trend (commonly interpreted as the forced response) is removed, some ensemble members show a sea ice increase that is very similar to the observed. While this results does confirm the important role of natural variability, it also suggests a strong bias in the forced response. I will discuss the reasons for this systematic bias and explore possible remedies. This an important problem to solve because projections of 21st -Century changes in the Antarctic climate system (including ice sheet surface mass balance changes and related changes in the sea level budget) have a strong dependence on the mean state of and changes in the Antarctic sea ice cover. This problem is not unique to

Ensemble Kalman filter for the reconstruction of the Earth's mantle circulation

Science.gov (United States)

Bocher, Marie; Fournier, Alexandre; Coltice, Nicolas

2018-02-01

Recent advances in mantle convection modeling led to the release of a new generation of convection codes, able to self-consistently generate plate-like tectonics at their surface. Those models physically link mantle dynamics to surface tectonics. Combined with plate tectonic reconstructions, they have the potential to produce a new generation of mantle circulation models that use data assimilation methods and where uncertainties in plate tectonic reconstructions are taken into account. We provided a proof of this concept by applying a suboptimal Kalman filter to the reconstruction of mantle circulation (Bocher et al., 2016). Here, we propose to go one step further and apply the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to this problem. The EnKF is a sequential Monte Carlo method particularly adapted to solve high-dimensional data assimilation problems with nonlinear dynamics. We tested the EnKF using synthetic observations consisting of surface velocity and heat flow measurements on a 2-D-spherical annulus model and compared it with the method developed previously. The EnKF performs on average better and is more stable than the former method. Less than 300 ensemble members are sufficient to reconstruct an evolution. We use covariance adaptive inflation and localization to correct for sampling errors. We show that the EnKF results are robust over a wide range of covariance localization parameters. The reconstruction is associated with an estimation of the error, and provides valuable information on where the reconstruction is to be trusted or not.

A phylogenetic Kalman filter for ancestral trait reconstruction using molecular data.

Science.gov (United States)

Lartillot, Nicolas

2014-02-15

Correlation between life history or ecological traits and genomic features such as nucleotide or amino acid composition can be used for reconstructing the evolutionary history of the traits of interest along phylogenies. Thus far, however, such ancestral reconstructions have been done using simple linear regression approaches that do not account for phylogenetic inertia. These reconstructions could instead be seen as a genuine comparative regression problem, such as formalized by classical generalized least-square comparative methods, in which the trait of interest and the molecular predictor are represented as correlated Brownian characters coevolving along the phylogeny. Here, a Bayesian sampler is introduced, representing an alternative and more efficient algorithmic solution to this comparative regression problem, compared with currently existing generalized least-square approaches. Technically, ancestral trait reconstruction based on a molecular predictor is shown to be formally equivalent to a phylogenetic Kalman filter problem, for which backward and forward recursions are developed and implemented in the context of a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler. The comparative regression method results in more accurate reconstructions and a more faithful representation of uncertainty, compared with simple linear regression. Application to the reconstruction of the evolution of optimal growth temperature in Archaea, using GC composition in ribosomal RNA stems and amino acid composition of a sample of protein-coding genes, confirms previous findings, in particular, pointing to a hyperthermophilic ancestor for the kingdom. The program is freely available at www.phylobayes.org.

Supporting Qualified Database for Uncertainty Evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Petruzzi, A.; Fiori, F.; Kovtonyuk, A.; Lisovyy, O.; D'Auria, F.

2013-01-01

Uncertainty evaluation constitutes a key feature of BEPU (Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty) process. The uncertainty can be the result of a Monte Carlo type analysis involving input uncertainty parameters or the outcome of a process involving the use of experimental data and connected code calculations. Those uncertainty methods are discussed in several papers and guidelines (IAEA-SRS-52, OECD/NEA BEMUSE reports). The present paper aims at discussing the role and the depth of the analysis required for merging from one side suitable experimental data and on the other side qualified code calculation results. This aspect is mostly connected with the second approach for uncertainty mentioned above, but it can be used also in the framework of the first approach. Namely, the paper discusses the features and structure of the database that includes the following kinds of documents: 1. The 'RDS-facility' (Reference Data Set for the selected facility): this includes the description of the facility, the geometrical characterization of any component of the facility, the instrumentations, the data acquisition system, the evaluation of pressure losses, the physical properties of the material and the characterization of pumps, valves and heat losses; 2. The 'RDS-test' (Reference Data Set for the selected test of the facility): this includes the description of the main phenomena investigated during the test, the configuration of the facility for the selected test (possible new evaluation of pressure and heat losses if needed) and the specific boundary and initial conditions; 3. The 'QP' (Qualification Report) of the code calculation results: this includes the description of the nodalization developed following a set of homogeneous techniques, the achievement of the steady state conditions and the qualitative and quantitative analysis of the transient with the characterization of the Relevant Thermal-Hydraulics Aspects (RTA); 4. The EH (Engineering Handbook) of the input nodalization

Supporting qualified database for uncertainty evaluation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Petruzzi, A.; Fiori, F.; Kovtonyuk, A.; D' Auria, F. [Nuclear Research Group of San Piero A Grado, Univ. of Pisa, Via Livornese 1291, 56122 Pisa (Italy)

2012-07-01

Uncertainty evaluation constitutes a key feature of BEPU (Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty) process. The uncertainty can be the result of a Monte Carlo type analysis involving input uncertainty parameters or the outcome of a process involving the use of experimental data and connected code calculations. Those uncertainty methods are discussed in several papers and guidelines (IAEA-SRS-52, OECD/NEA BEMUSE reports). The present paper aims at discussing the role and the depth of the analysis required for merging from one side suitable experimental data and on the other side qualified code calculation results. This aspect is mostly connected with the second approach for uncertainty mentioned above, but it can be used also in the framework of the first approach. Namely, the paper discusses the features and structure of the database that includes the following kinds of documents: 1. The' RDS-facility' (Reference Data Set for the selected facility): this includes the description of the facility, the geometrical characterization of any component of the facility, the instrumentations, the data acquisition system, the evaluation of pressure losses, the physical properties of the material and the characterization of pumps, valves and heat losses; 2. The 'RDS-test' (Reference Data Set for the selected test of the facility): this includes the description of the main phenomena investigated during the test, the configuration of the facility for the selected test (possible new evaluation of pressure and heat losses if needed) and the specific boundary and initial conditions; 3. The 'QR' (Qualification Report) of the code calculation results: this includes the description of the nodalization developed following a set of homogeneous techniques, the achievement of the steady state conditions and the qualitative and quantitative analysis of the transient with the characterization of the Relevant Thermal-Hydraulics Aspects (RTA); 4. The EH (Engineering

Coastal barrier stratigraphy for Holocene high-resolution sea-level reconstruction.

Science.gov (United States)

Costas, Susana; Ferreira, Óscar; Plomaritis, Theocharis A; Leorri, Eduardo

2016-12-08

The uncertainties surrounding present and future sea-level rise have revived the debate around sea-level changes through the deglaciation and mid- to late Holocene, from which arises a need for high-quality reconstructions of regional sea level. Here, we explore the stratigraphy of a sandy barrier to identify the best sea-level indicators and provide a new sea-level reconstruction for the central Portuguese coast over the past 6.5 ka. The selected indicators represent morphological features extracted from coastal barrier stratigraphy, beach berm and dune-beach contact. These features were mapped from high-resolution ground penetrating radar images of the subsurface and transformed into sea-level indicators through comparison with modern analogs and a chronology based on optically stimulated luminescence ages. Our reconstructions document a continuous but slow sea-level rise after 6.5 ka with an accumulated change in elevation of about 2 m. In the context of SW Europe, our results show good agreement with previous studies, including the Tagus isostatic model, with minor discrepancies that demand further improvement of regional models. This work reinforces the potential of barrier indicators to accurately reconstruct high-resolution mid- to late Holocene sea-level changes through simple approaches.

Statistical approach for uncertainty quantification of experimental modal model parameters

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Luczak, M.; Peeters, B.; Kahsin, M.

2014-01-01

Composite materials are widely used in manufacture of aerospace and wind energy structural components. These load carrying structures are subjected to dynamic time-varying loading conditions. Robust structural dynamics identification procedure impose tight constraints on the quality of modal models...... represent different complexity levels ranging from coupon, through sub-component up to fully assembled aerospace and wind energy structural components made of composite materials. The proposed method is demonstrated on two application cases of a small and large wind turbine blade........ This paper aims at a systematic approach for uncertainty quantification of the parameters of the modal models estimated from experimentally obtained data. Statistical analysis of modal parameters is implemented to derive an assessment of the entire modal model uncertainty measure. Investigated structures...

Absorbing systematic effects to obtain a better background model in a search for new physics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Caron, S; Horner, S; Sundermann, J E; Cowan, G; Gross, E

2009-01-01

This paper presents a novel approach to estimate the Standard Model backgrounds based on modifying Monte Carlo predictions within their systematic uncertainties. The improved background model is obtained by altering the original predictions with successively more complex correction functions in signal-free control selections. Statistical tests indicate when sufficient compatibility with data is reached. In this way, systematic effects are absorbed into the new background model. The same correction is then applied on the Monte Carlo prediction in the signal region. Comparing this method to other background estimation techniques shows improvements with respect to statistical and systematic uncertainties. The proposed method can also be applied in other fields beyond high energy physics.

Image-reconstruction algorithms for positron-emission tomography systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cheng, S.N.C.

1982-01-01

The positional uncertainty in the time-of-flight measurement of a positron-emission tomography system is modelled as a Gaussian distributed random variable and the image is assumed to be piecewise constant on a rectilinear lattice. A reconstruction algorithm using maximum-likelihood estimation is derived for the situation in which time-of-flight data are sorted as the most-likely-position array. The algorithm is formulated as a linear system described by a nonseparable, block-banded, Toeplitz matrix, and a sine-transform technique is used to implement this algorithm efficiently. The reconstruction algorithms for both the most-likely-position array and the confidence-weighted array are described by similar equations, hence similar linear systems can be used to described the reconstruction algorithm for a discrete, confidence-weighted array, when the matrix and the entries in the data array are properly identified. It is found that the mean square-error depends on the ratio of the full width at half the maximum of time-of-flight measurement over the size of a pixel. When other parameters are fixed, the larger the pixel size, the smaller is the mean square-error. In the study of resolution, parameters that affect the impulse response of time-of-flight reconstruction algorithms are identified. It is found that the larger the pixel size, the larger is the standard deviation of the impulse response. This shows that small mean square-error and fine resolution are two contradictory requirements

Virtual reconstruction of modern and fossil hominoid crania: consequences of reference sample choice.

Science.gov (United States)

Senck, Sascha; Bookstein, Fred L; Benazzi, Stefano; Kastner, Johann; Weber, Gerhard W

2015-05-01

Most hominin cranial fossils are incomplete and require reconstruction prior to subsequent analyses. Missing data can be estimated by geometric morphometrics using information from complete specimens, for example, by using thin-plate splines. In this study, we estimate missing data in several virtually fragmented models of hominoid crania (Homo, Pan, Pongo) and fossil hominins (e.g., Australopithecus africanus, Homo heidelbergensis). The aim is to investigate in which way different references influence estimations of cranial shape and how this information can be employed in the reconstruction of fossils. We used a sample of 64 three-dimensional digital models of complete human, chimpanzee, and orangutan crania and a set of 758 landmarks and semilandmarks. The virtually knocked out neurocranial and facial areas that were reconstructed corresponded to those of a real case found in A.L. 444-2 (A. afarensis) cranium. Accuracy of multiple intraspecies and interspecies reconstructions was computed as the maximum square root of the mean squared difference between the original and the reconstruction (root mean square). The results show that the uncertainty in reconstructions is a function of both the geometry of the knockout area and the dissimilarity between the reference sample and the specimen(s) undergoing reconstruction. We suggest that it is possible to estimate large missing cranial areas if the shape of the reference is similar enough to the shape of the specimen reconstructed, though caution must be exercised when employing these reconstructions in subsequent analyses. We provide a potential guide for the choice of the reference by means of bending energy. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Re-constructing historical Adélie penguin abundance estimates by retrospectively accounting for detection bias.

Science.gov (United States)

Southwell, Colin; Emmerson, Louise; Newbery, Kym; McKinlay, John; Kerry, Knowles; Woehler, Eric; Ensor, Paul

2015-01-01

Seabirds and other land-breeding marine predators are considered to be useful and practical indicators of the state of marine ecosystems because of their dependence on marine prey and the accessibility of their populations at breeding colonies. Historical counts of breeding populations of these higher-order marine predators are one of few data sources available for inferring past change in marine ecosystems. However, historical abundance estimates derived from these population counts may be subject to unrecognised bias and uncertainty because of variable attendance of birds at breeding colonies and variable timing of past population surveys. We retrospectively accounted for detection bias in historical abundance estimates of the colonial, land-breeding Adélie penguin through an analysis of 222 historical abundance estimates from 81 breeding sites in east Antarctica. The published abundance estimates were de-constructed to retrieve the raw count data and then re-constructed by applying contemporary adjustment factors obtained from remotely operating time-lapse cameras. The re-construction process incorporated spatial and temporal variation in phenology and attendance by using data from cameras deployed at multiple sites over multiple years and propagating this uncertainty through to the final revised abundance estimates. Our re-constructed abundance estimates were consistently higher and more uncertain than published estimates. The re-constructed estimates alter the conclusions reached for some sites in east Antarctica in recent assessments of long-term Adélie penguin population change. Our approach is applicable to abundance data for a wide range of colonial, land-breeding marine species including other penguin species, flying seabirds and marine mammals.

Re-constructing historical Adélie penguin abundance estimates by retrospectively accounting for detection bias.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Colin Southwell

Full Text Available Seabirds and other land-breeding marine predators are considered to be useful and practical indicators of the state of marine ecosystems because of their dependence on marine prey and the accessibility of their populations at breeding colonies. Historical counts of breeding populations of these higher-order marine predators are one of few data sources available for inferring past change in marine ecosystems. However, historical abundance estimates derived from these population counts may be subject to unrecognised bias and uncertainty because of variable attendance of birds at breeding colonies and variable timing of past population surveys. We retrospectively accounted for detection bias in historical abundance estimates of the colonial, land-breeding Adélie penguin through an analysis of 222 historical abundance estimates from 81 breeding sites in east Antarctica. The published abundance estimates were de-constructed to retrieve the raw count data and then re-constructed by applying contemporary adjustment factors obtained from remotely operating time-lapse cameras. The re-construction process incorporated spatial and temporal variation in phenology and attendance by using data from cameras deployed at multiple sites over multiple years and propagating this uncertainty through to the final revised abundance estimates. Our re-constructed abundance estimates were consistently higher and more uncertain than published estimates. The re-constructed estimates alter the conclusions reached for some sites in east Antarctica in recent assessments of long-term Adélie penguin population change. Our approach is applicable to abundance data for a wide range of colonial, land-breeding marine species including other penguin species, flying seabirds and marine mammals.

Vascularized nerve grafts for lower extremity nerve reconstruction.

Science.gov (United States)

Terzis, Julia K; Kostopoulos, Vasileios K

2010-02-01

Vascularized nerve grafts (VNG) were introduced in 1976 but since then, there have been no reports of their usage in lower extremity reconstruction systematically. The factors influencing outcomes as well as a comparison with conventional nerve grafts will be presented.Since 1981, 14 lower extremity nerve injuries in 12 patients have been reconstructed with VNG. Common peroneal nerve was injured in 12 and posterior tibial nerve in 5 patients. The level of the injury was at the knee or thigh. Twelve sural nerves were used as VNG with or without concomitant vascularized posterior calf fascia.All patients regained improved sensibility and adequate posterior tibial nerve function. For common peroneal nerve reconstructions, all patients with denervation time less than 6 months regained muscle strength of grade at least 4, even when long grafts were used for defects of 20 cm or more. Late cases, yielded inadequate muscle function even with the use of VNG.Denervation time of 6 months or less was critical for reconstruction with vascularized nerve graft. Not only the results were statistically significant compared with late cases, but also all early operated patients achieved excellent results. VNG are strongly recommended in traction avulsion injuries of the lower extremity with lengthy nerve damage.

Watershed reliability, resilience and vulnerability analysis under uncertainty using water quality data.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoque, Yamen M; Tripathi, Shivam; Hantush, Mohamed M; Govindaraju, Rao S

2012-10-30

A method for assessment of watershed health is developed by employing measures of reliability, resilience and vulnerability (R-R-V) using stream water quality data. Observed water quality data are usually sparse, so that a water quality time-series is often reconstructed using surrogate variables (streamflow). A Bayesian algorithm based on relevance vector machine (RVM) was employed to quantify the error in the reconstructed series, and a probabilistic assessment of watershed status was conducted based on established thresholds for various constituents. As an application example, observed water quality data for several constituents at different monitoring points within the Cedar Creek watershed in north-east Indiana (USA) were utilized. Considering uncertainty in the data for the period 2002-2007, the R-R-V analysis revealed that the Cedar Creek watershed tends to be in compliance with respect to selected pesticides, ammonia and total phosphorus. However, the watershed was found to be prone to violations of sediment standards. Ignoring uncertainty in the water quality time-series led to misleading results especially in the case of sediments. Results indicate that the methods presented in this study may be used for assessing the effects of different stressors over a watershed. The method shows promise as a management tool for assessing watershed health. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The systematic and random errors determination using realtime 3D surface tracking system in breast cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kanphet, J; Suriyapee, S; Sanghangthum, T; Kumkhwao, J; Wisetrintong, M; Dumrongkijudom, N

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study to determine the patient setup uncertainties in deep inspiration breath-hold (DIBH) radiation therapy for left breast cancer patients using real-time 3D surface tracking system. The six breast cancer patients treated by 6 MV photon beams from TrueBeam linear accelerator were selected. The patient setup errors and motion during treatment were observed and calculated for interfraction and intrafraction motions. The systematic and random errors were calculated in vertical, longitudinal and lateral directions. From 180 images tracking before and during treatment, the maximum systematic error of interfraction and intrafraction motions were 0.56 mm and 0.23 mm, the maximum random error of interfraction and intrafraction motions were 1.18 mm and 0.53 mm, respectively. The interfraction was more pronounce than the intrafraction, while the systematic error was less impact than random error. In conclusion the intrafraction motion error from patient setup uncertainty is about half of interfraction motion error, which is less impact due to the stability in organ movement from DIBH. The systematic reproducibility is also half of random error because of the high efficiency of modern linac machine that can reduce the systematic uncertainty effectively, while the random errors is uncontrollable. (paper)

Uncertainty analysis of time-dependent nonlinear systems: theory and application to transient thermal hydraulics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barhen, J.; Bjerke, M.A.; Cacuci, D.G.; Mullins, C.B.; Wagschal, G.G.

1982-01-01

An advanced methodology for performing systematic uncertainty analysis of time-dependent nonlinear systems is presented. This methodology includes a capability for reducing uncertainties in system parameters and responses by using Bayesian inference techniques to consistently combine prior knowledge with additional experimental information. The determination of best estimates for the system parameters, for the responses, and for their respective covariances is treated as a time-dependent constrained minimization problem. Three alternative formalisms for solving this problem are developed. The two ''off-line'' formalisms, with and without ''foresight'' characteristics, require the generation of a complete sensitivity data base prior to performing the uncertainty analysis. The ''online'' formalism, in which uncertainty analysis is performed interactively with the system analysis code, is best suited for treatment of large-scale highly nonlinear time-dependent problems. This methodology is applied to the uncertainty analysis of a transient upflow of a high pressure water heat transfer experiment. For comparison, an uncertainty analysis using sensitivities computed by standard response surface techniques is also performed. The results of the analysis indicate the following. Major reduction of the discrepancies in the calculation/experiment ratios is achieved by using the new methodology. Incorporation of in-bundle measurements in the uncertainty analysis significantly reduces system uncertainties. Accuracy of sensitivities generated by response-surface techniques should be carefully assessed prior to using them as a basis for uncertainty analyses of transient reactor safety problems

Validation and uncertainty analysis of the Athlet thermal-hydraulic computer code

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Glaeser, H.

1995-01-01

The computer code ATHLET is being developed by GRS as an advanced best-estimate code for the simulation of breaks and transients in Pressurized Water Reactor (PWRs) and Boiling Water Reactor (BWRs) including beyond design basis accidents. A systematic validation of ATHLET is based on a well balanced set of integral and separate effects tests emphasizing the German combined Emergency Core Cooling (ECC) injection system. When using best estimate codes for predictions of reactor plant states during assumed accidents, qualification of the uncertainty in these calculations is highly desirable. A method for uncertainty and sensitivity evaluation has been developed by GRS where the computational effort is independent of the number of uncertain parameters. (author)

Analysis of parameter uncertainties in the assessment of seismic risk for nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yucemen, S.M.

1981-04-01

Probabilistic and statistical methods are used to develop a procedure by which the seismic risk at a specific site can be systematically analyzed. The proposed probabilistic procedure provides a consisted method for the modelling, analysis and updating of uncertainties that are involved in the seismic risk analysis for nuclear power plants. Methods are proposed for including these uncertainties in the final value of calculated risks. Two specific case studies are presented in detail to illustrate the application of the probabilistic method of seismic risk evaluation and to investigate the sensitivity of results to different assumptions

Applying Fuzzy and Probabilistic Uncertainty Concepts to the Material Flow Analysis of Palladium in Austria

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Laner, David; Rechberger, Helmut; Astrup, Thomas Fruergaard

2015-01-01

Material flow analysis (MFA) is a widely applied tool to investigate resource and recycling systems of metals and minerals. Owing to data limitations and restricted system understanding, MFA results are inherently uncertain. To demonstrate the systematic implementation of uncertainty analysis in ...

Understanding uncertainty

CERN Document Server

Lindley, Dennis V

2013-01-01

Praise for the First Edition ""...a reference for everyone who is interested in knowing and handling uncertainty.""-Journal of Applied Statistics The critically acclaimed First Edition of Understanding Uncertainty provided a study of uncertainty addressed to scholars in all fields, showing that uncertainty could be measured by probability, and that probability obeyed three basic rules that enabled uncertainty to be handled sensibly in everyday life. These ideas were extended to embrace the scientific method and to show how decisions, containing an uncertain element, could be rationally made.

New measurements from fully reconstructed hadronic final states of the $B^0_2$ meson at CDF II experiment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Da Ronco, Saverio [Univ. of Padua (Italy)

2006-01-01

This thesis reports the reconstruction and lifetime measurement of B⁺, B$0/atop{d}$ and B$0/atop{s}$ mesons, performed using fully reconstructed hadronic decays collected by a dedicated trigger at CDF II experiment. This dedicated trigger selects significantly displaced tracks from primary vertex of p$\\bar{p}$ collisions generated at Tevatron collider, obtaining, in this way, huge data samples enriched of long-lived particles, and is therefore suitable for reconstruction of B meson in hadronic decay modes. Due to the trigger track impact parameter selections, the proper decay time distributions of the B mesons no longer follow a simply exponential decay law. This complicates the lifetime measurement and requires a correct understanding and treatment of all the involved effects to keep systematic uncertainties under control. This thesis presents a method to extract the lifetime of B mesons in “ct- biased” samples, based on a Monte Carlo approach, to correct for the effects of the trigger and analysis selections. We present the results of this method when applied on fully re- constructed decays of B collected by CDF II in the data taking runs up to August 2004, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of about 360 pb^-1. The lifetimes are extracted using the decay modes B⁺ → $\\bar{D}$⁰π⁺,B$0\\atop{d}$ → D^-π⁺, B$0\\atop{d}$ → D^-π⁺π^-π⁺, B$0\\atop{s}$ → D$-\\atop{s}$π⁺ and B$0\\atop{s}$ → D$-\\atop{s}$ π⁺π^-π⁺(and c.c.) and performing combined mass-lifetime unbinned maximum likelihood fits.

Margins for geometric uncertainty around organs at risk in radiotherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McKenzie, Alan; Herk, Marcel van; Mijnheer, Ben

2002-01-01

Background and purpose: ICRU Report 62 suggests drawing margins around organs at risk (ORs) to produce planning organ at risk volumes (PRVs) to account for geometric uncertainty in the radiotherapy treatment process. This paper proposes an algorithm for drawing such margins, and compares the recommended margin widths with examples from clinical practice and discusses the limitations of the approach. Method: The use of the PRV defined in this way is that, despite the geometric uncertainties, the dose calculated within the PRV by the treatment planning system can be used to represent the dose in the OR with a certain confidence level. A suitable level is where, in the majority of cases (90%), the dose-volume histogram of the PRV will not under-represent the high-dose components in the OR. In order to provide guidelines on how to do this in clinical practice, this paper distinguishes types of OR in terms of the tolerance doses relative to the prescription dose and suggests appropriate margins for serial-structure and parallel-structure ORs. Results: In some instances of large and parallel ORs, the clinician may judge that the complication risk in omitting a margin is acceptable. Otherwise, for all types of OR, systematic, treatment preparation uncertainties may be accommodated by an OR→PRV margin width of 1.3Σ. Here, Σ is the standard deviation of the combined systematic (treatment preparation) uncertainties. In the case of serial ORs or small, parallel ORs, the effects of blurring caused by daily treatment execution errors (set-up and organ motion) should be taken into account. Near a region of high dose, blurring tends to shift the isodoses away from the unblurred edge as shown on the treatment planning system by an amount that may be represented by 0.5σ. This margin may be used either to increase or to decrease the margin already calculated for systematic uncertainties, depending upon the size of the tolerance dose relative to the detailed planned dose

Atmospheric pCO2 reconstructed across five early Eocene global warming events

Science.gov (United States)

Cui, Ying; Schubert, Brian A.

2017-11-01

Multiple short-lived global warming events, known as hyperthermals, occurred during the early Eocene (56-52 Ma). Five of these events - the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM or ETM1), H1 (or ETM2), H2, I1, and I2 - are marked by a carbon isotope excursion (CIE) within both marine and terrestrial sediments. The magnitude of CIE, which is a function of the amount and isotopic composition of carbon added to the ocean-atmosphere system, varies significantly between marine versus terrestrial substrates. Here we use the increase in carbon isotope fractionation by C3 land plants in response to increased pCO2 to reconcile this difference and reconstruct a range of background pCO2 and peak pCO2 for each CIE, provided two potential carbon sources: methane hydrate destabilization and permafrost-thawing/organic matter oxidation. Although the uncertainty on each pCO2 estimate using this approach is low (e.g., median uncertainty = + 23% / - 18%), this work highlights the potential for significant systematic bias in the pCO2 estimate resulting from sampling resolution, substrate type, diagenesis, and environmental change. Careful consideration of each of these factors is required especially when applying this approach to a single marine-terrestrial CIE pair. Given these limitations, we provide an upper estimate for background early Eocene pCO2 of 463 +248/-131 ppmv (methane hydrate scenario) to 806 +127/-104 ppmv (permafrost-thawing/organic matter oxidation scenario). These results, which represent the first pCO2 proxy estimates directly tied to the Eocene hyperthermals, demonstrate that early Eocene warmth was supported by background pCO2 less than ∼3.5× preindustrial levels and that pCO2 > 1000 ppmv may have occurred only briefly, during hyperthermal events.

Measurement uncertainty budget of an interferometric flow velocity sensor

Science.gov (United States)

Bermuske, Mike; Büttner, Lars; Czarske, Jürgen

2017-06-01

Flow rate measurements are a common topic for process monitoring in chemical engineering and food industry. To achieve the requested low uncertainties of 0:1% for flow rate measurements, a precise measurement of the shear layers of such flows is necessary. The Laser Doppler Velocimeter (LDV) is an established method for measuring local flow velocities. For exact estimation of the flow rate, the flow profile in the shear layer is of importance. For standard LDV the axial resolution and therefore the number of measurement points in the shear layer is defined by the length of the measurement volume. A decrease of this length is accompanied by a larger fringe distance variation along the measurement axis which results in a rise of the measurement uncertainty for the flow velocity (uncertainty relation between spatial resolution and velocity uncertainty). As a unique advantage, the laser Doppler profile sensor (LDV-PS) overcomes this problem by using two fan-like fringe systems to obtain the position of the measured particles along the measurement axis and therefore achieve a high spatial resolution while it still offers a low velocity uncertainty. With this technique, the flow rate can be estimated with one order of magnitude lower uncertainty, down to 0:05% statistical uncertainty.1 And flow profiles especially in film flows can be measured more accurately. The problem for this technique is, in contrast to laboratory setups where the system is quite stable, that for industrial applications the sensor needs a reliable and robust traceability to the SI units, meter and second. Small deviations in the calibration can, because of the highly position depending calibration function, cause large systematic errors in the measurement result. Therefore, a simple, stable and accurate tool is needed, that can easily be used in industrial surroundings to check or recalibrate the sensor. In this work, different calibration methods are presented and their influences to the

Multi-pinhole SPECT calibration. Influence of data noise and systematic orbit deviations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhou, Lin; Vunckx, Kathleen; Nuyts, Johan [Katholieke Univ. Leuven (Belgium). Dept. of Nuclear Medicine

2011-07-01

Previously it has been proved that the geometry of a multi-pinhole SPECT system with circular orbit can be uniquely determined from a measurement of two point sources, without the knowledge of the distance between them. In this paper, we report that this conclusion only holds if the motion of the camera is perfectly circular. In reality, the detector heads systematically slightly deviate from the circular orbit, which may introduce nonnegligible bias in the calibrated parameters. An analytical linear model was extended to estimate the influence of both data noise and systematic deviations on the accuracy of the calibration and the image quality of the reconstruction. It turns out that applying the knowledge of the distances greatly reduces the reconstruction error, especially in the presence of systematic deviations. In addition, we propose that instead of using the information about the distances between the point sources, it is more straightforward to use the knowledge about the distances between the pinhole apertures during multi-pinhole calibration. The two distance fixing approaches yield similar calibration accuracy, but fixing the inter-pinhole distances is more preferable since it facilitates simultaneous animal-calibration data acquisition. Our theoretical results are supported by reconstruction images of a Jaszczak-type phantom. (orig.)

Review of monitoring uncertainty requirements in the CDM

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shishlov, Igor; Bellassen, Valentin

2014-10-01

In order to ensure the environmental integrity of carbon offset projects, emission reductions certified under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) have to be 'real, measurable and additional', which is ensured through the monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) process. MRV, however, comes at a cost that ranges from several cents to EUR1.20 and above per ton of CO 2 e depending on the project type. This article analyzes monitoring uncertainty requirements for carbon offset projects with a particular focus on the trade-off between monitoring stringency and cost. To this end, we review existing literature, scrutinize both overarching monitoring guidelines and the 10 most-used methodologies, and finally we analyze four case studies. We find that there is indeed a natural trade-off between the stringency and the cost of monitoring, which if not addressed properly may become a major barrier for the implementation of offset projects in some sectors. We demonstrate that this trade-off has not been systematically addressed in the overarching CDM guidelines and that there are only limited incentives to reduce monitoring uncertainty. Some methodologies and calculation tools as well as some other offset standards, however, do incorporate provisions for a trade-off between monitoring costs and stringency. These provisions may take the form of discounting emissions reductions based on the level of monitoring uncertainty - or more implicitly through allowing a project developer to choose between monitoring a given parameter and using a conservative default value. Our findings support the introduction of an uncertainty standard under the CDM for more comprehensive, yet cost-efficient, accounting for monitoring uncertainty in carbon offset projects. (authors)

Data Fusion: A decision analysis tool that quantifies geological and parametric uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Porter, D.W.

1995-01-01

Engineering projects such as siting waste facilities and performing remediation are often driven by geological and hydrogeological uncertainties. Geological understanding and hydrogeological parameters such as hydraulic conductivity are needed to achieve reliable engineering design. Information form non-invasive and minimal invasive data sets offers potential for reduction in uncertainty, but a single data type does not usually meet all needs. Data Fusion uses Bayesian statistics to update prior knowledge with information from diverse data sets as the data is acquired. Prior knowledge takes the form of first principles models (e.g., groundwater flow) and spatial continuity models for heterogeneous properties. The variability of heterogeneous properties is modeled in a form motivated by statistical physics as a Markov random field. A computer reconstruction of targets of interest is produced within a quantified statistical uncertainty. The computed uncertainty provides a rational basis for identifying data gaps for assessing data worth to optimize data acquisition. Further, the computed uncertainty provides a way to determine the confidence of achieving adequate safety, margins in engineering design. Beyond design, Data Fusion provides the basis for real time computer monitoring of remediation. Working with the DOE Office of Technology (OTD), the authors have developed and patented a Data Fusion Workstation system that has been used on jobs at the Hanford, Savannah River, Pantex and Fernald DOE sites. Further, applications include an army depot at Letterkenney, PA and commercial industrial sites

Data Fusion: A decision analysis tool that quantifies geological and parametric uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Porter, D.W.

1996-01-01

Engineering projects such as siting waste facilities and performing remediation are often driven by geological and hydrogeological uncertainties. Geological understanding and hydrogeological parameters such as hydraulic conductivity are needed to achieve reliable engineering design. Information from non-invasive and minimally invasive data sets offers potential for reduction in uncertainty, but a single data type does not usually meet all needs. Data Fusion uses Bayesian statistics to update prior knowledge with information from diverse data sets as the data is acquired. Prior knowledge takes the form of first principles models (e.g., groundwater flow) and spatial continuity models for heterogeneous properties. The variability of heterogeneous properties is modeled in a form motivated by statistical physics as a Markov random field. A computer reconstruction of targets of interest is produced within a quantified statistical uncertainty. The computed uncertainty provides a rational basis for identifying data gaps for assessing data worth to optimize data acquisition. Further, the computed uncertainty provides a way to determine the confidence of achieving adequate safety margins in engineering design. Beyond design, Data Fusion provides the basis for real time computer monitoring of remediation. Working with the DOE Office of Technology (OTD), the author has developed and patented a Data Fusion Workstation system that has been used on jobs at the Hanford, Savannah River, Pantex and Fernald DOE sites. Further applications include an army depot at Letterkenney, PA and commercial industrial sites

Uncertainties in source term calculations generated by the ORIGEN2 computer code for Hanford Production Reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heeb, C.M.

1991-03-01

The ORIGEN2 computer code is the primary calculational tool for computing isotopic source terms for the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project. The ORIGEN2 code computes the amounts of radionuclides that are created or remain in spent nuclear fuel after neutron irradiation and radioactive decay have occurred as a result of nuclear reactor operation. ORIGEN2 was chosen as the primary code for these calculations because it is widely used and accepted by the nuclear industry, both in the United States and the rest of the world. Its comprehensive library of over 1,600 nuclides includes any possible isotope of interest to the HEDR Project. It is important to evaluate the uncertainties expected from use of ORIGEN2 in the HEDR Project because these uncertainties may have a pivotal impact on the final accuracy and credibility of the results of the project. There are three primary sources of uncertainty in an ORIGEN2 calculation: basic nuclear data uncertainty in neutron cross sections, radioactive decay constants, energy per fission, and fission product yields; calculational uncertainty due to input data; and code uncertainties (i.e., numerical approximations, and neutron spectrum-averaged cross-section values from the code library). 15 refs., 5 figs., 5 tabs

Uncertainty analysis of an interfacial area reconstruction algorithm and its application to two group interfacial area transport equation validation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dave, A.J.; Manera, A.; Beyer, M.; Lucas, D.; Prasser, H.-M.

2016-01-01

Wire mesh sensors (WMS) are state of the art devices that allow high resolution (in space and time) measurement of 2D void fraction distribution over a wide range of two-phase flow regimes, from bubbly to annular. Data using WMS have been recorded at the Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf (HZDR) (Lucas et al., 2010; Beyer et al., 2008; Prasser et al., 2003) for a wide combination of superficial gas and liquid velocities, providing an excellent database for advances in two-phase flow modeling. In two-phase flow, the interfacial area plays an integral role in coupling the mass, momentum and energy transport equations of the liquid and gas phase. While current models used in best-estimate thermal-hydraulic codes (e.g. RELAP5, TRACE, TRACG, etc.) are still based on algebraic correlations for the estimation of the interfacial area in different flow regimes, interfacial area transport equations (IATE) have been proposed to predict the dynamic propagation in space and time of interfacial area (Ishii and Hibiki, 2010). IATE models are still under development and the HZDR WMS experimental data provide an excellent basis for the validation and further advance of these models. The current paper is focused on the uncertainty analysis of algorithms used to reconstruct interfacial area densities from the void-fraction voxel data measured using WMS and their application towards validation efforts of two-group IATE models. In previous research efforts, a surface triangularization algorithm has been developed in order to estimate the surface area of individual bubbles recorded with the WMS, and estimate the interfacial area in the given flow condition. In the present paper, synthetically generated bubbles are used to assess the algorithm’s accuracy. As the interfacial area of the synthetic bubbles are defined by user inputs, the error introduced by the algorithm can be quantitatively obtained. The accuracy of interfacial area measurements is characterized for different bubbles

Uncertainty analysis of an interfacial area reconstruction algorithm and its application to two group interfacial area transport equation validation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dave, A.J., E-mail: akshayjd@umich.edu [Department of Nuclear Engineering and Rad. Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48105 (United States); Manera, A. [Department of Nuclear Engineering and Rad. Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48105 (United States); Beyer, M.; Lucas, D. [Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf, Institute of Fluid Dynamics, 01314 Dresden (Germany); Prasser, H.-M. [Department of Mechanical and Process Engineering, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich (Switzerland)

2016-12-15

Wire mesh sensors (WMS) are state of the art devices that allow high resolution (in space and time) measurement of 2D void fraction distribution over a wide range of two-phase flow regimes, from bubbly to annular. Data using WMS have been recorded at the Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf (HZDR) (Lucas et al., 2010; Beyer et al., 2008; Prasser et al., 2003) for a wide combination of superficial gas and liquid velocities, providing an excellent database for advances in two-phase flow modeling. In two-phase flow, the interfacial area plays an integral role in coupling the mass, momentum and energy transport equations of the liquid and gas phase. While current models used in best-estimate thermal-hydraulic codes (e.g. RELAP5, TRACE, TRACG, etc.) are still based on algebraic correlations for the estimation of the interfacial area in different flow regimes, interfacial area transport equations (IATE) have been proposed to predict the dynamic propagation in space and time of interfacial area (Ishii and Hibiki, 2010). IATE models are still under development and the HZDR WMS experimental data provide an excellent basis for the validation and further advance of these models. The current paper is focused on the uncertainty analysis of algorithms used to reconstruct interfacial area densities from the void-fraction voxel data measured using WMS and their application towards validation efforts of two-group IATE models. In previous research efforts, a surface triangularization algorithm has been developed in order to estimate the surface area of individual bubbles recorded with the WMS, and estimate the interfacial area in the given flow condition. In the present paper, synthetically generated bubbles are used to assess the algorithm’s accuracy. As the interfacial area of the synthetic bubbles are defined by user inputs, the error introduced by the algorithm can be quantitatively obtained. The accuracy of interfacial area measurements is characterized for different bubbles

A Bayesian belief network approach for assessing uncertainty in conceptual site models at contaminated sites

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thomsen, Nanna Isbak; Binning, Philip John; McKnight, Ursula S.

2016-01-01

the most important site-specific features and processes that may affect the contaminant transport behavior at the site. However, the development of a CSM will always be associated with uncertainties due to limited data and lack of understanding of the site conditions. CSM uncertainty is often found...... to be a major source of model error and it should therefore be accounted for when evaluating uncertainties in risk assessments. We present a Bayesian belief network (BBN) approach for constructing CSMs and assessing their uncertainty at contaminated sites. BBNs are graphical probabilistic models...... that are effective for integrating quantitative and qualitative information, and thus can strengthen decisions when empirical data are lacking. The proposed BBN approach facilitates a systematic construction of multiple CSMs, and then determines the belief in each CSM using a variety of data types and/or expert...

An uncertainty inventory demonstration - a primary step in uncertainty quantification

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Langenbrunner, James R. [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Booker, Jane M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hemez, Francois M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Salazar, Issac F [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Ross, Timothy J [UNM

2009-01-01

Tools, methods, and theories for assessing and quantifying uncertainties vary by application. Uncertainty quantification tasks have unique desiderata and circumstances. To realistically assess uncertainty requires the engineer/scientist to specify mathematical models, the physical phenomena of interest, and the theory or framework for assessments. For example, Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) specifically identifies uncertainties using probability theory, and therefore, PRA's lack formal procedures for quantifying uncertainties that are not probabilistic. The Phenomena Identification and Ranking Technique (PIRT) proceeds by ranking phenomena using scoring criteria that results in linguistic descriptors, such as importance ranked with words, 'High/Medium/Low.' The use of words allows PIRT to be flexible, but the analysis may then be difficult to combine with other uncertainty theories. We propose that a necessary step for the development of a procedure or protocol for uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the application of an Uncertainty Inventory. An Uncertainty Inventory should be considered and performed in the earliest stages of UQ.

The Cost-Effectiveness of Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction in Competitive Athletes.

Science.gov (United States)

Stewart, Bruce A; Momaya, Amit M; Silverstein, Marc D; Lintner, David

2017-01-01

Competitive athletes value the ability to return to competitive play after the treatment of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injuries. ACL reconstruction has high success rates for return to play, but some studies indicate that patients may do well with nonoperative physical therapy treatment. To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the treatment of acute ACL tears with either initial surgical reconstruction or physical therapy in competitive athletes. Economic and decision analysis; Level of evidence, 2. The incremental cost, incremental effectiveness, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of ACL reconstruction compared with physical therapy were calculated from a cost-effectiveness analysis of ACL reconstruction compared with physical therapy for the initial management of acute ACL injuries in competitive athletes. The ACL reconstruction strategy and the physical therapy strategy were represented as Markov models. Costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were evaluated over a 6-year time horizon and were analyzed from a societal perspective. Quality of life and probabilities of clinical outcomes were obtained from the peer-reviewed literature, and costs were compiled from a large academic hospital in the United States. One-way, 2-way, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were used to assess the effect of uncertainty in variables on the ICER of ACL reconstruction. The ICER of ACL reconstruction compared with physical therapy was $22,702 per QALY gained. The ICER was most sensitive to the quality of life of returning to play or not returning to play, costs, and duration of follow-up but relatively insensitive to the rates and costs of complications, probabilities of return to play for both operative and nonoperative treatments, and discount rate. ACL reconstruction is a cost-effective strategy for competitive athletes with an ACL injury.

Assessing uncertainties in crop and pasture ensemble model simulations of productivity and N2O emissions

Science.gov (United States)

Simulation models are extensively used to predict agricultural productivity and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, the uncertainties of (reduced) model ensemble simulations have not been assessed systematically for variables affecting food security and climate change mitigation, within multisp...

Post-disaster housing reconstruction: Perspectives of the NGO and local authorities on delay issues

Science.gov (United States)

Khalid, Khairin Norhashidah; Nifa, Faizatul Akmar Abdul; Ismail, Risyawati Mohamed; Lin, Chong Khai

2016-08-01

Post disaster reconstruction is complex, dynamic and chaotic in nature and as such represents many challenges because it is unlike normal construction. However, the time scale of reconstruction is shorter than the normal construction, but it often deals with uncertainties and the scale of the construction activities required is relatively high. After a disaster impacts a country, many governments, institutions and aid organizations cooperate and involved with the reconstruction process. This is seen as a tool for applying policies and programs designed to remedy the weakness in developmental policies, infrastructure and institutional arrangements. This paper reports a part of an on-going research on post-disaster housing reconstruction in Malaysia. An extensive literature review and pilot interviews were undertaken to establish the factors that contribute to the delay in post-disaster reconstruction project. Accordingly, this paper takes the perspective of recovery from non-government organization (NGO) and local authorities which act as providers of social services, builders of infrastructure, regulators of economic activity and managers of the natural environment. As a result, it is important on how those decisions are made, who is involved in the decision-making, and what are the consequences of this decision.

Demonstration of a forward iterative method to reconstruct brachytherapy seed configurations from x-ray projections

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Murphy, Martin J; Todor, Dorin A [Department of Radiation Oncology, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond VA 23298 (United States)

2005-06-07

By monitoring brachytherapy seed placement and determining the actual configuration of the seeds in vivo, one can optimize the treatment plan during the process of implantation. Two or more radiographic images from different viewpoints can in principle allow one to reconstruct the configuration of implanted seeds uniquely. However, the reconstruction problem is complicated by several factors: (1) the seeds can overlap and cluster in the images; (2) the images can have distortion that varies with viewpoint when a C-arm fluoroscope is used; (3) there can be uncertainty in the imaging viewpoints; (4) the angular separation of the imaging viewpoints can be small owing to physical space constraints; (5) there can be inconsistency in the number of seeds detected in the images; and (6) the patient can move while being imaged. We propose and conceptually demonstrate a novel reconstruction method that handles all of these complications and uncertainties in a unified process. The method represents the three-dimensional seed and camera configurations as parametrized models that are adjusted iteratively to conform to the observed radiographic images. The morphed model seed configuration that best reproduces the appearance of the seeds in the radiographs is the best estimate of the actual seed configuration. All of the information needed to establish both the seed configuration and the camera model is derived from the seed images without resort to external calibration fixtures. Furthermore, by comparing overall image content rather than individual seed coordinates, the process avoids the need to establish correspondence between seed identities in the several images. The method has been shown to work robustly in simulation tests that simultaneously allow for unknown individual seed positions, uncertainties in the imaging viewpoints and variable image distortion.

A sliding mode observer for hemodynamic characterization under modeling uncertainties

KAUST Repository

Zayane, Chadia

2014-06-01

This paper addresses the case of physiological states reconstruction in a small region of the brain under modeling uncertainties. The misunderstood coupling between the cerebral blood volume and the oxygen extraction fraction has lead to a partial knowledge of the so-called balloon model describing the hemodynamic behavior of the brain. To overcome this difficulty, a High Order Sliding Mode observer is applied to the balloon system, where the unknown coupling is considered as an internal perturbation. The effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated through a set of synthetic data that mimic fMRI experiments.

Recognizing and responding to uncertainty: a grounded theory of nurses' uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Cranley, Lisa A; Doran, Diane M; Tourangeau, Ann E; Kushniruk, Andre; Nagle, Lynn

2012-08-01

There has been little research to date exploring nurses' uncertainty in their practice. Understanding nurses' uncertainty is important because it has potential implications for how care is delivered. The purpose of this study is to develop a substantive theory to explain how staff nurses experience and respond to uncertainty in their practice. Between 2006 and 2008, a grounded theory study was conducted that included in-depth semi-structured interviews. Fourteen staff nurses working in adult medical-surgical intensive care units at two teaching hospitals in Ontario, Canada, participated in the study. The theory recognizing and responding to uncertainty characterizes the processes through which nurses' uncertainty manifested and how it was managed. Recognizing uncertainty involved the processes of assessing, reflecting, questioning, and/or being unable to predict aspects of the patient situation. Nurses' responses to uncertainty highlighted the cognitive-affective strategies used to manage uncertainty. Study findings highlight the importance of acknowledging uncertainty and having collegial support to manage uncertainty. The theory adds to our understanding the processes involved in recognizing uncertainty, strategies and outcomes of managing uncertainty, and influencing factors. Tailored nursing education programs should be developed to assist nurses in developing skills in articulating and managing their uncertainty. Further research is needed to extend, test and refine the theory of recognizing and responding to uncertainty to develop strategies for managing uncertainty. This theory advances the nursing perspective of uncertainty in clinical practice. The theory is relevant to nurses who are faced with uncertainty and complex clinical decisions, to managers who support nurses in their clinical decision-making, and to researchers who investigate ways to improve decision-making and care delivery. ©2012 Sigma Theta Tau International.

Establishing and maintaining a measurement uncertainty programme at the RPII dosimetry and calibration service

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Spain, D.; Currivan, L.; Fitzgerald, H.; Pollard, D.

2005-01-01

Full text: At the Dosimetry and Calibration Service of the Radiological Protection Institute of Ireland (RPII) approximately 70,000 thermoluminescent dosemeters (TLDs) are issued each year to monitor occupationally exposed workers in Ireland. In addition the service offers a calibration service for radiation survey meters, contamination monitors and electronic personal dosemeters. In order to meet the requirements of ISO/IEC 17025, it is necessary to quantify the uncertainty of measurement using well defined concepts and to maintain an up to date estimate. In this work it is shown how the measurement uncertainty in the Dosimetry and Calibration Service has been estimated. When estimating the uncertainty of measurement, all uncertainty components which are of importance in the given situation are taken into account. The combined uncertainty of the system is determined by considering a number of systematic and random errors. The analysis will include assumptions made and these have been documented and justified. Components of uncertainty were determined in accordance with such documents as IEC 61066, Guide to Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement, and the National Physical Laboratory Measurement Good Practice Guide No. 11, as appropriate. Results of intercomparisons are also presented, which adds confidence to the uncertainty estimate. Although a great deal of work is involved is estimating uncertainty in both laboratories it is felt that a reasonable estimate of measurement uncertainty has been achieved given the available information. Furthermore, in keeping with the laboratory's commitment to continuous improvement, it is necessary to evaluate periodically the measurement uncertainties associated with the relevant procedures and a programme for the future is outlined. (author)

ON THE ESTIMATION OF RANDOM UNCERTAINTIES OF STAR FORMATION HISTORIES

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dolphin, Andrew E., E-mail: adolphin@raytheon.com [Raytheon Company, Tucson, AZ, 85734 (United States)

2013-09-20

The standard technique for measurement of random uncertainties of star formation histories (SFHs) is the bootstrap Monte Carlo, in which the color-magnitude diagram (CMD) is repeatedly resampled. The variation in SFHs measured from the resampled CMDs is assumed to represent the random uncertainty in the SFH measured from the original data. However, this technique systematically and significantly underestimates the uncertainties for times in which the measured star formation rate is low or zero, leading to overly (and incorrectly) high confidence in that measurement. This study proposes an alternative technique, the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), which samples the probability distribution of the parameters used in the original solution to directly estimate confidence intervals. While the most commonly used MCMC algorithms are incapable of adequately sampling a probability distribution that can involve thousands of highly correlated dimensions, the Hybrid Monte Carlo algorithm is shown to be extremely effective and efficient for this particular task. Several implementation details, such as the handling of implicit priors created by parameterization of the SFH, are discussed in detail.

ON THE ESTIMATION OF RANDOM UNCERTAINTIES OF STAR FORMATION HISTORIES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dolphin, Andrew E.

2013-01-01

The standard technique for measurement of random uncertainties of star formation histories (SFHs) is the bootstrap Monte Carlo, in which the color-magnitude diagram (CMD) is repeatedly resampled. The variation in SFHs measured from the resampled CMDs is assumed to represent the random uncertainty in the SFH measured from the original data. However, this technique systematically and significantly underestimates the uncertainties for times in which the measured star formation rate is low or zero, leading to overly (and incorrectly) high confidence in that measurement. This study proposes an alternative technique, the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), which samples the probability distribution of the parameters used in the original solution to directly estimate confidence intervals. While the most commonly used MCMC algorithms are incapable of adequately sampling a probability distribution that can involve thousands of highly correlated dimensions, the Hybrid Monte Carlo algorithm is shown to be extremely effective and efficient for this particular task. Several implementation details, such as the handling of implicit priors created by parameterization of the SFH, are discussed in detail

A framework for model-based optimization of bioprocesses under uncertainty: Identifying critical parameters and operating variables

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Morales Rodriguez, Ricardo; Meyer, Anne S.; Gernaey, Krist

2011-01-01

This study presents the development and application of a systematic model-based framework for bioprocess optimization, evaluated on a cellulosic ethanol production case study. The implementation of the framework involves the use of dynamic simulations, sophisticated uncertainty analysis (Monte...

Understanding the origin of Paris Agreement emission uncertainties

Science.gov (United States)

Rogelj, Joeri; Fricko, Oliver; Meinshausen, Malte; Krey, Volker; Zilliacus, Johanna J. J.; Riahi, Keywan

2017-06-01

The UN Paris Agreement puts in place a legally binding mechanism to increase mitigation action over time. Countries put forward pledges called nationally determined contributions (NDC) whose impact is assessed in global stocktaking exercises. Subsequently, actions can then be strengthened in light of the Paris climate objective: limiting global mean temperature increase to well below 2 °C and pursuing efforts to limit it further to 1.5 °C. However, pledged actions are currently described ambiguously and this complicates the global stocktaking exercise. Here, we systematically explore possible interpretations of NDC assumptions, and show that this results in estimated emissions for 2030 ranging from 47 to 63 GtCO2e yr-1. We show that this uncertainty has critical implications for the feasibility and cost to limit warming well below 2 °C and further to 1.5 °C. Countries are currently working towards clarifying the modalities of future NDCs. We identify salient avenues to reduce the overall uncertainty by about 10 percentage points through simple, technical clarifications regarding energy accounting rules. Remaining uncertainties depend to a large extent on politically valid choices about how NDCs are expressed, and therefore raise the importance of a thorough and robust process that keeps track of where emissions are heading over time.

Automated cleaning and uncertainty attribution of archival bathymetry based on a priori knowledge

Science.gov (United States)

Ladner, Rodney Wade; Elmore, Paul; Perkins, A. Louise; Bourgeois, Brian; Avera, Will

2017-09-01

Hydrographic offices hold large valuable historic bathymetric data sets, many of which were collected using older generation survey systems that contain little or no metadata and/or uncertainty estimates. These bathymetric data sets generally contain large outlier (errant) data points to clean, yet standard practice does not include rigorous automated procedures for systematic cleaning of these historical data sets and their subsequent conversion into reusable data formats. In this paper, we propose an automated method for this task. We utilize statistically diverse threshold tests, including a robust least trimmed squared method, to clean the data. We use LOESS weighted regression residuals together with a Student-t distribution to attribute uncertainty for each retained sounding; the resulting uncertainty values compare favorably with native estimates of uncertainty from co-located data sets which we use to estimate a point-wise goodness-of-fit measure. Storing a cleansed validated data set augmented with uncertainty in a re-usable format provides the details of this analysis for subsequent users. Our test results indicate that the method significantly improves the quality of the data set while concurrently providing confidence interval estimates and point-wise goodness-of-fit estimates as referenced to current hydrographic practices.

Ensemble Kalman filter for the reconstruction of the Earth's mantle circulation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Bocher

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Recent advances in mantle convection modeling led to the release of a new generation of convection codes, able to self-consistently generate plate-like tectonics at their surface. Those models physically link mantle dynamics to surface tectonics. Combined with plate tectonic reconstructions, they have the potential to produce a new generation of mantle circulation models that use data assimilation methods and where uncertainties in plate tectonic reconstructions are taken into account. We provided a proof of this concept by applying a suboptimal Kalman filter to the reconstruction of mantle circulation (Bocher et al., 2016. Here, we propose to go one step further and apply the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF to this problem. The EnKF is a sequential Monte Carlo method particularly adapted to solve high-dimensional data assimilation problems with nonlinear dynamics. We tested the EnKF using synthetic observations consisting of surface velocity and heat flow measurements on a 2-D-spherical annulus model and compared it with the method developed previously. The EnKF performs on average better and is more stable than the former method. Less than 300 ensemble members are sufficient to reconstruct an evolution. We use covariance adaptive inflation and localization to correct for sampling errors. We show that the EnKF results are robust over a wide range of covariance localization parameters. The reconstruction is associated with an estimation of the error, and provides valuable information on where the reconstruction is to be trusted or not.

Certainty Equivalence M-MRAC for Systems with Unmatched Uncertainties

Science.gov (United States)

Stepanyan, Vahram; Krishnakumar, Kalmanje

2012-01-01

The paper presents a certainty equivalence state feedback indirect adaptive control design method for the systems of any relative degree with unmatched uncertainties. The approach is based on the parameter identification (estimation) model, which is completely separated from the control design and is capable of producing parameter estimates as fast as the computing power allows without generating high frequency oscillations. It is shown that the system's input and output tracking errors can be systematically decreased by the proper choice of the design parameters.

Surface topography characterization using 3D stereoscopic reconstruction of SEM images

Science.gov (United States)

Vedantha Krishna, Amogh; Flys, Olena; Reddy, Vijeth V.; Rosén, B. G.

2018-06-01

A major drawback of the optical microscope is its limitation to resolve finer details. Many microscopes have been developed to overcome the limitations set by the diffraction of visible light. The scanning electron microscope (SEM) is one such alternative: it uses electrons for imaging, which have much smaller wavelength than photons. As a result high magnification with superior image resolution can be achieved. However, SEM generates 2D images which provide limited data for surface measurements and analysis. Often many research areas require the knowledge of 3D structures as they contribute to a comprehensive understanding of microstructure by allowing effective measurements and qualitative visualization of the samples under study. For this reason, stereo photogrammetry technique is employed to convert SEM images into 3D measurable data. This paper aims to utilize a stereoscopic reconstruction technique as a reliable method for characterization of surface topography. Reconstructed results from SEM images are compared with coherence scanning interferometer (CSI) results obtained by measuring a roughness reference standard sample. This paper presents a method to select the most robust/consistent surface texture parameters that are insensitive to the uncertainties involved in the reconstruction technique itself. Results from the two-stereoscopic reconstruction algorithms are also documented in this paper.

Pollen-based continental climate reconstructions at 6 and 21 ka: a global synthesis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bartlein, P.J. [University of Oregon, Department of Geography, Eugene, Oregon (United States); Harrison, S.P. [University of Bristol, School of Geographical Sciences, Bristol (United Kingdom); Macquarie University, School of Biological Sciences, North Ryde, NSW (Australia); Brewer, S. [University of Wyoming, Botany Department, Wyoming (United States); Connor, S. [University of the Algarve, Centre for Marine and Environmental Research, Faro (Portugal); Davis, B.A.S. [Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne, School of Architecture, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Lausanne (Switzerland); Gajewski, K.; Viau, A.E. [University of Ottawa, Department of Geography, Ottawa, ON (Canada); Guiot, J. [CEREGE, Aix-en-Provence cedex 4 (France); Harrison-Prentice, T.I. [GTZ, PAKLIM, Jakarta (Indonesia); Henderson, A. [University of Minnesota, Department of Geology and Geophysics, Minneapolis, MN (United States); Peyron, O. [Laboratoire Chrono-Environnement UMR 6249 CNRS-UFC UFR Sciences et Techniques, Besancon Cedex (France); Prentice, I.C. [Macquarie University, School of Biological Sciences, North Ryde, NSW (Australia); University of Bristol, QUEST, Department of Earth Sciences, Bristol (United Kingdom); Scholze, M. [University of Bristol, QUEST, Department of Earth Sciences, Bristol (United Kingdom); Seppae, H. [University of Helsinki, Department of Geology, P.O. Box 65, Helsinki (Finland); Shuman, B. [University of Wyoming, Department of Geology and Geophysics, Laramie, WY (United States); Sugita, S. [Tallinn University, Institute of Ecology, Tallinn (Estonia); Thompson, R.S. [US Geological Survey, PO Box 25046, Denver, CO (United States); Williams, J. [University of Wisconsin, Department of Geography, Madison, WI (United States); Wu, H. [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Key Laboratory of Cenozoic Geology and Environment, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Beijing (China)

2011-08-15

Subfossil pollen and plant macrofossil data derived from {sup 14}C-dated sediment profiles can provide quantitative information on glacial and interglacial climates. The data allow climate variables related to growing-season warmth, winter cold, and plant-available moisture to be reconstructed. Continental-scale reconstructions have been made for the mid-Holocene (MH, around 6 ka) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, around 21 ka), allowing comparison with palaeoclimate simulations currently being carried out as part of the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The synthesis of the available MH and LGM climate reconstructions and their uncertainties, obtained using modern-analogue, regression and model-inversion techniques, is presented for four temperature variables and two moisture variables. Reconstructions of the same variables based on surface-pollen assemblages are shown to be accurate and unbiased. Reconstructed LGM and MH climate anomaly patterns are coherent, consistent between variables, and robust with respect to the choice of technique. They support a conceptual model of the controls of Late Quaternary climate change whereby the first-order effects of orbital variations and greenhouse forcing on the seasonal cycle of temperature are predictably modified by responses of the atmospheric circulation and surface energy balance. (orig.)

Uncertainty Quantification for Ice Sheet Science and Sea Level Projections

Science.gov (United States)

Boening, C.; Schlegel, N.; Limonadi, D.; Schodlok, M.; Seroussi, H. L.; Larour, E. Y.; Watkins, M. M.

2017-12-01

In order to better quantify uncertainties in global mean sea level rise projections and in particular upper bounds, we aim at systematically evaluating the contributions from ice sheets and potential for extreme sea level rise due to sudden ice mass loss. Here, we take advantage of established uncertainty quantification tools embedded within the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM) as well as sensitivities to ice/ocean interactions using melt rates and melt potential derived from MITgcm/ECCO2. With the use of these tools, we conduct Monte-Carlo style sampling experiments on forward simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet, by varying internal parameters and boundary conditions of the system over both extreme and credible worst-case ranges. Uncertainty bounds for climate forcing are informed by CMIP5 ensemble precipitation and ice melt estimates for year 2100, and uncertainty bounds for ocean melt rates are derived from a suite of regional sensitivity experiments using MITgcm. Resulting statistics allow us to assess how regional uncertainty in various parameters affect model estimates of century-scale sea level rise projections. The results inform efforts to a) isolate the processes and inputs that are most responsible for determining ice sheet contribution to sea level; b) redefine uncertainty brackets for century-scale projections; and c) provide a prioritized list of measurements, along with quantitative information on spatial and temporal resolution, required for reducing uncertainty in future sea level rise projections. Results indicate that ice sheet mass loss is dependent on the spatial resolution of key boundary conditions - such as bedrock topography and melt rates at the ice-ocean interface. This work is performed at and supported by the California Institute of Technology's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Supercomputing time is also supported through a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Cryosphere program.

Sampling based uncertainty analysis of 10% hot leg break LOCA in large scale test facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sengupta, Samiran; Kraina, V.; Dubey, S. K.; Rao, R. S.; Gupta, S. K.

2010-01-01

Sampling based uncertainty analysis was carried out to quantify uncertainty in predictions of best estimate code RELAP5/MOD3.2 for a thermal hydraulic test (10% hot leg break LOCA) performed in the Large Scale Test Facility (LSTF) as a part of an IAEA coordinated research project. The nodalisation of the test facility was qualified for both steady state and transient level by systematically applying the procedures led by uncertainty methodology based on accuracy extrapolation (UMAE); uncertainty analysis was carried out using the Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) method to evaluate uncertainty for ten input parameters. Sixteen output parameters were selected for uncertainty evaluation and uncertainty band between 5 th and 95 th percentile of the output parameters were evaluated. It was observed that the uncertainty band for the primary pressure during two phase blowdown is larger than that of the remaining period. Similarly, a larger uncertainty band is observed relating to accumulator injection flow during reflood phase. Importance analysis was also carried out and standard rank regression coefficients were computed to quantify the effect of each individual input parameter on output parameters. It was observed that the break discharge coefficient is the most important uncertain parameter relating to the prediction of all the primary side parameters and that the steam generator (SG) relief pressure setting is the most important parameter in predicting the SG secondary pressure

Systematic studies on the reconstruction efficiency and accuracy of a track drift chamber

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Appelshaeuser, H.

1993-02-01

The author has studied the reconstruction efficiency of the NA35-TPC by means of a simulation of the tracks by means of laser radiation. He has obtained results on the diffusion constant and the track resolution. (HSI) [de

Uncertainty quantification for criticality problems using non-intrusive and adaptive Polynomial Chaos techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gilli, L.; Lathouwers, D.; Kloosterman, J.L.; Hagen, T.H.J.J. van der; Koning, A.J.; Rochman, D.

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► Non-intrusive spectral techniques are applied to perform UQ of criticality problems. ► A new adaptive algorithm based on the definition of sparse grid is derived. ► The method is applied to two reference criticality problems. - Abstract: In this paper we present the implementation and the application of non-intrusive spectral techniques for uncertainty analysis of criticality problems. Spectral techniques can be used to reconstruct stochastic quantities of interest by means of a Fourier-like expansion. Their application to uncertainty propagation problems can be performed in a non-intrusive fashion by evaluating a set of projection integrals that are used to reconstruct the spectral expansion. This can be done either by using standard Monte Carlo integration approaches or by adopting numerical quadrature rules. We present the derivation of a new adaptive quadrature algorithm, based on the definition of a sparse grid, which can be used to reduce the computational cost associated with non-intrusive spectral techniques. This new adaptive algorithm and the Monte Carlo integration alternative are then applied to two reference problems. First, a stochastic multigroup diffusion problem is introduced by considering the microscopic cross-sections of the system to be random quantities. Then a criticality benchmark is defined for which a set of resonance parameters in the resolved region are assumed to be stochastic

Effect of activation cross-section uncertainties on the radiological assessment of the MFE/DEMO first wall

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cabellos, O. [Instituto de Fusion Nuclear, Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, Madrid (Spain)]. E-mail: cabellos@din.upm.es; Reyes, S. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA (United States); Sanz, J. [Instituto de Fusion Nuclear, Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, Madrid (Spain); University Nacional Educacion a Distancia, Dep. Ingenieria Energetica, Juan del Rosal 12, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Rodriguez, A. [University Nacional Educacion a Distancia, Dep. Ingenieria Energetica, Juan del Rosal 12, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Youssef, M. [University of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Sawan, M. [University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States)

2006-02-15

A Monte Carlo procedure has been applied in this work in order to address the impact of activation cross-sections (XS) uncertainties on contact dose rate and decay heat calculations for the outboard first wall (FW) of a magnetic fusion energy (MFE) demonstration (DEMO) reactor. The XSs inducing the major uncertainty in the prediction of activation related quantities have been identified. Results have shown that for times corresponding to maintenance activities the uncertainties effect is insignificant since the dominant XSs involved in these calculations are based on accurate experimental data evaluations. However, for times corresponding to waste management/recycling activities, the errors induced by the XSs uncertainties, which in this case are evaluated using systematic models, must be considered. It has been found that two particular isotopes, {sup 6}Co and {sup 94}Nb, are key contributors to the global DEMO FW activation uncertainty results. In these cases, the benefit from further improvements in the accuracy of the critical reaction XSs is discussed.

Effect of activation cross-section uncertainties on the radiological assessment of the MFE/DEMO first wall

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cabellos, O.; Reyes, S.; Sanz, J.; Rodriguez, A.; Youssef, M.; Sawan, M.

2006-01-01

A Monte Carlo procedure has been applied in this work in order to address the impact of activation cross-sections (XS) uncertainties on contact dose rate and decay heat calculations for the outboard first wall (FW) of a magnetic fusion energy (MFE) demonstration (DEMO) reactor. The XSs inducing the major uncertainty in the prediction of activation related quantities have been identified. Results have shown that for times corresponding to maintenance activities the uncertainties effect is insignificant since the dominant XSs involved in these calculations are based on accurate experimental data evaluations. However, for times corresponding to waste management/recycling activities, the errors induced by the XSs uncertainties, which in this case are evaluated using systematic models, must be considered. It has been found that two particular isotopes, 6 Co and 94 Nb, are key contributors to the global DEMO FW activation uncertainty results. In these cases, the benefit from further improvements in the accuracy of the critical reaction XSs is discussed

Determination of temperature measurements uncertainties of the heat transport primary system of Embalse nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pomerantz, Marcelo E.; Coutsiers, Eduardo E.; Moreno, Carlos A.

1999-01-01

In this work, the systematic errors in temperature measurements in inlet and outlet headers of HTPS coolant channels of Embalse nuclear power plant are evaluated. These uncertainties are necessary for a later evaluation of the channel power maps transferred to the coolant. The power maps calculated in this way are used to compare power distributions using neutronic codes. Therefore, a methodology to correct systematic errors of temperature in outlet feeders and inlet headers is developed in this work. (author)

Effect of user interpretation on uncertainty estimates: examples from the air-to-milk transfer of radiocesium

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kirchner, G.; Ring Peterson, S.; Bergstroem, U.; Bushell, S.; Davis, P.; Filistovic, V.; Hinton, T.G.; Krajewski, P.; Riesen, T.; Uijt de Haag, P.

1998-01-01

An important source of uncertainty in predictions of numerical simulation codes of environmental transport processes arises from the assumptions made by the user when interpreting the model and the scenario to be assessed. This type of uncertainty was examined systematically in this study and was compared with uncertainty due to varying parameter values in a code. Three terrestrial food chain codes that are driven by deposition of radionuclides from the atmosphere were used by up to ten participants to predict total deposition of 137 Cs and concentrations on pasture and in milk for two release scenarios. Collective uncertainty among the predictions of the ten users for concentrations in milk calculated for one scenario by one code was a factor of 2000, while the largest individual uncertainty was 20 times lower. Choice of parameter values contributed most to user-induced uncertainty, followed by scenario interpretation. Due to the significant disparity in predictions, it is recommended that assessments should not be carried out alone by a single code user. (Copyright (c) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam. All rights reserved.)

Practical aspects of the uncertainty and traceability of spectrochemical measurement results by electrothermal atomic absorption spectrometry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duta, S.; Robouch, P.; Barbu, L.; Taylor, P.

2007-01-01

The determination of trace elements concentration in water by electrothermal atomic absorption spectrometry (ETAAS) is a common and well established technique in many chemical testing laboratories. However, the evaluation of measurement uncertainty results is not systematically implemented. The paper presents an easy step-by-step example leading to the evaluation of the combined standard uncertainty of copper determination in water using ETAAS. The major contributors to the overall measurement uncertainty are identified due to amount of copper in water sample that mainly depends on the absorbance measurements, due to certified reference material and due to auto-sampler volume measurements. The practical aspects how the traceability of copper concentration in water can be established and demonstrated are also pointed out

Practical aspects of the uncertainty and traceability of spectrochemical measurement results by electrothermal atomic absorption spectrometry

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Duta, S. [Institute for Reference Materials and Measurements, Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Retieseweg 111, B-2440 Geel (Belgium); National Institute of Metrology, 042122 Vitan Barzesti 11, sector 4 Bucharest (Romania)], E-mail: steluta.duta@inm.ro; Robouch, P. [Institute for Reference Materials and Measurements, Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Retieseweg 111, B-2440 Geel (Belgium)], E-mail: Piotr.Robouch@ec.europa.eu; Barbu, L. [Coca-Cola Entreprise, Analytical Department, Bucharest (Romania); Taylor, P. [Institute for Reference Materials and Measurements, Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Retieseweg 111, B-2440 Geel (Belgium)], E-mail: Philip.Taylor@ec.europa.eu

2007-04-15

The determination of trace elements concentration in water by electrothermal atomic absorption spectrometry (ETAAS) is a common and well established technique in many chemical testing laboratories. However, the evaluation of measurement uncertainty results is not systematically implemented. The paper presents an easy step-by-step example leading to the evaluation of the combined standard uncertainty of copper determination in water using ETAAS. The major contributors to the overall measurement uncertainty are identified due to amount of copper in water sample that mainly depends on the absorbance measurements, due to certified reference material and due to auto-sampler volume measurements. The practical aspects how the traceability of copper concentration in water can be established and demonstrated are also pointed out.

Jet energy scale uncertainty correlations between ATLAS and CMS at $\\sqrt{s}=8$ TeV

CERN Document Server

The ATLAS collaboration

2015-01-01

An evaluation of the correlations between ATLAS and CMS jet energy scale uncertainties is presented for $\\sqrt{s}=8\\,\\mathrm{TeV}$ $pp$ collisions recorded in 2012. Uncertainties within each experiment are grouped based on the general type of systematic effect they are intended to cover and the means by which they are derived. Inter-experimental correlation value ranges are established for each corresponding group of uncertainty components. This correlation range is intended to cover the possible correlation values when performing combinations between the two experiments, where the most conservative value obtained from scanning over the correlation range should be used for the final combined measurement. The procedure described here is primarily aimed at single-observable analyses, and has limitations when applied to multi-observable measurements.

Uncertainty of rotating shadowband irradiometers and Si-pyranometers including the spectral irradiance error

Science.gov (United States)

Wilbert, Stefan; Kleindiek, Stefan; Nouri, Bijan; Geuder, Norbert; Habte, Aron; Schwandt, Marko; Vignola, Frank

2016-05-01

Concentrating solar power projects require accurate direct normal irradiance (DNI) data including uncertainty specifications for plant layout and cost calculations. Ground measured data are necessary to obtain the required level of accuracy and are often obtained with Rotating Shadowband Irradiometers (RSI) that use photodiode pyranometers and correction functions to account for systematic effects. The uncertainty of Si-pyranometers has been investigated, but so far basically empirical studies were published or decisive uncertainty influences had to be estimated based on experience in analytical studies. One of the most crucial estimated influences is the spectral irradiance error because Si-photodiode-pyranometers only detect visible and color infrared radiation and have a spectral response that varies strongly within this wavelength interval. Furthermore, analytic studies did not discuss the role of correction functions and the uncertainty introduced by imperfect shading. In order to further improve the bankability of RSI and Si-pyranometer data, a detailed uncertainty analysis following the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) has been carried out. The study defines a method for the derivation of the spectral error and spectral uncertainties and presents quantitative values of the spectral and overall uncertainties. Data from the PSA station in southern Spain was selected for the analysis. Average standard uncertainties for corrected 10 min data of 2 % for global horizontal irradiance (GHI), and 2.9 % for DNI (for GHI and DNI over 300 W/m²) were found for the 2012 yearly dataset when separate GHI and DHI calibration constants were used. Also the uncertainty in 1 min resolution was analyzed. The effect of correction functions is significant. The uncertainties found in this study are consistent with results of previous empirical studies.

Quantification of margins and uncertainties: Alternative representations of epistemic uncertainty