WorldWideScience

Sample records for systematic misalignment scenarios

  1. Static body postural misalignment in individuals with temporomandibular disorders: a systematic review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaves, Thaís C.; Turci, Aline M.; Pinheiro, Carina F.; Sousa, Letícia M.; Grossi, Débora B.

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The association between body postural changes and temporomandibular disorders (TMD) has been widely discussed in the literature, however, there is little evidence to support this association. OBJECTIVES: The aim of the present study was to conduct a systematic review to assess the evidence concerning the association between static body postural misalignment and TMD. METHOD: A search was conducted in the PubMed/Medline, Embase, Lilacs, Scielo, Cochrane, and Scopus databases including studies published in English between 1950 and March 2012. Cross-sectional, cohort, case control, and survey studies that assessed body posture in TMD patients were selected. Two reviewers performed each step independently. A methodological checklist was used to evaluate the quality of the selected articles. RESULTS: Twenty studies were analyzed for their methodological quality. Only one study was classified as a moderate quality study and two were classified as strong quality studies. Among all studies considered, only 12 included craniocervical postural assessment, 2 included assessment of craniocervical and shoulder postures,, and 6 included global assessment of body posture. CONCLUSION: There is strong evidence of craniocervical postural changes in myogenous TMD, moderate evidence of cervical postural misalignment in arthrogenous TMD, and no evidence of absence of craniocervical postural misalignment in mixed TMD patients or of global body postural misalignment in patients with TMD. It is important to note the poor methodological quality of the studies, particularly those regarding global body postural misalignment in TMD patients. PMID:25590441

  2. Effect of cephalometer misalignment on calculations of facial asymmetry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ki-Heon; Hwang, Hyeon-Shik; Curry, Sean; Boyd, Robert L; Norris, Kevin; Baumrind, Sheldon

    2007-07-01

    In this study, we evaluated errors introduced into the interpretation of facial asymmetry on posteroanterior (PA) cephalograms due to malpositioning of the x-ray emitter focal spot. We tested the hypothesis that horizontal displacements of the emitter from its ideal position would produce systematic displacements of skull landmarks that could be fully accounted for by the rules of projective geometry alone. A representative dry skull with 22 metal markers was used to generate a series of PA images from different emitter positions by using a fully calibrated stereo cephalometer. Empirical measurements of the resulting cephalograms were compared with mathematical predictions based solely on geometric rules. The empirical measurements matched the mathematical predictions within the limits of measurement error (x= 0.23 mm), thus supporting the hypothesis. Based upon this finding, we generated a completely symmetrical mathematical skull and calculated the expected errors for focal spots of several different magnitudes. Quantitative data were computed for focal spot displacements of different magnitudes. Misalignment of the x-ray emitter focal spot introduces systematic errors into the interpretation of facial asymmetry on PA cephalograms. For misalignments of less than 20 mm, the effect is small in individual cases. However, misalignments as small as 10 mm can introduce spurious statistical findings of significant asymmetry when mean values for large groups of PA images are evaluated.

  3. Misalignment of Magnetic Fields and Outflows in Protostellar Cores

    OpenAIRE

    Hull, Charles L. H.; Plambeck, Richard L.; Bolatto, Alberto D.; Bower, Geoffrey C.; Carpenter, John M.; Crutcher, Richard M.; Fiege, Jason D.; Franzmann, Erika; Hakobian, Nicholas S.; Heiles, Carl; Houde, Martin; Hughes, A. Meredith; Jameson, Katherine; Kwon, Woojin; Lamb, James W.

    2013-01-01

    We present results of λ1.3 mm dust-polarization observations toward 16 nearby, low-mass protostars, mapped with ~2."5 resolution at CARMA. The results show that magnetic fields in protostellar cores on scales of ~1000 AU are not tightly aligned with outflows from the protostars. Rather, the data are consistent with scenarios where outflows and magnetic fields are preferentially misaligned (perpendicular), or where they are randomly aligned. If one assumes that outflows emerge along the rotati...

  4. Effects of Misalignments on Microtomography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hwang, Jae Hong; Yun, Jong Hee; Kim, Ho Kyung [Pusan National University, Busan (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    To avoid any distortions and/or artifacts that originate from the geometrical misalignments in reconstructed images, it is crucial to quantify those misalignments and then to reflect them into the image reconstruction procedure. It is typically known that the effect of .. is the greatest in image quality of cone-beam CT. Many studies have been carried out for quantitative measurements of misalignments. F. Noo et al. proposed an analytic method based on ellipse parameters, which were extracted from projections for a two-ball phantom. In this study, we investigate the effects of geometrical misalignments on the image quality of micro-CT. To determine the quantitative misalignments of our micro-CT system, we applied the ellipse-parameter method proposed by F. Noo et al. . The micro-CT images obtained for a wire phantom and ex-vivo rabbit bone without and with geometrical calibration are compared in this study. Misalignments made the single-wire phantom appear in two wires, due to the relatively large .... (note that the wire diameter was only 0.025 mm), as shown in Fig. 5(a), whereas the calibration successfully remedied this distortion artifact, as shown in Fig. 5(b). Comparisons with rabbit bone are shown in Fig. 6, and the calibration dramatically enhances the tomographic image quality.

  5. Improving environmental change research with systematic techniques for qualitative scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schweizer, Vanessa Jine; Kriegler, Elmar

    2012-01-01

    Scenarios are key tools in analyses of global environmental change. Often they consist of quantitative and qualitative components, where the qualitative aspects are expressed in narrative, or storyline, form. Fundamental challenges in scenario development and use include identifying a small set of compelling storylines that span a broad range of policy-relevant futures, documenting that the assumptions embodied in the storylines are internally consistent, and ensuring that the selected storylines are sufficiently comprehensive, that is, that descriptions of important kinds of future developments are not left out. The dominant approach to scenario design for environmental change research has been criticized for lacking sufficient means of ensuring that storylines are internally consistent. A consequence of this shortcoming could be an artificial constraint on the range of plausible futures considered. We demonstrate the application of a more systematic technique for the development of storylines called the cross-impact balance (CIB) method. We perform a case study on the scenarios published in the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), which are widely used. CIB analysis scores scenarios in terms of internal consistency. It can also construct a very large number of scenarios consisting of combinations of assumptions about individual scenario elements and rank these combinations in terms of internal consistency. Using this method, we find that the four principal storylines employed in the SRES scenarios vary widely in internal consistency. One type of storyline involving highly carbon-intensive development is underrepresented in the SRES scenario set. We conclude that systematic techniques like CIB analysis hold promise for improving scenario development in global change research. (letter)

  6. Real exchange rate misalignments

    OpenAIRE

    Terra, Maria Cristina T.; Valladares, Frederico Estrella Carneiro

    2003-01-01

    This paper characterizes episodes of real appreciations and depreciations for a sample of 85 countries, approximately from 1960 to 1998. First, the equilibrium real exchange rate series are constructed for each country using Goldfajn and Valdes (1999) methodology (cointegration with fundamentals). Then, departures from equilibrium real exchange rate (misalignments) are obtained, and a Markov Switching Model is used to characterize the misalignments series as stochastic autor...

  7. Shaft MisalignmentDetectionusing Stator Current Monitoring

    OpenAIRE

    Alok Kumar Verma, Somnath Sarangi and M.H. Kolekar

    2013-01-01

    This paper inspects the misaligned of shaft by usingdiagnostic medium such as current and vibration.Misalignments in machines can cause decrease inefficiency and in the long-run it may cause failurebecause of unnecessary vibration, stress on motor,bearings and short-circuiting in stator and rotorwindings.In this study, authors investigate the onsetof instability on a shaft mounted on journal bearings.Shaft displacement and stator current samples duringmachine run up under misaligned condition...

  8. Malocclusion (Misaligned Teeth)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... and Dental Disorders Malocclusion Causes Treatment More Information Medical Dictionary Also of Interest (Quiz) Biology of the Mouth Additional Content Medical News Malocclusion ˌmal-ə-ˈklü-zhən (Misaligned Teeth) ...

  9. Effects of alternating cell misalignments on the DDS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, R.M.; Miller, R.H.; Kroll, N.M.; Higo, T.

    1998-08-01

    The authors study some effects of cell misalignments in accelerator structures in which each cell is displaced the same amount and direction but with sign which alternates from cell to cell. In particular they study the manifold radiation in a damped detuned structure (DDS1) and wakefield effects in a uniform constant impedance structure. A synchronous wave aliasing phenomenon is observed. In previous treatments the effect of cell misalignment has been modeled by replacing it by beam displacement. Here they compare finite difference simulation of cell misalignment with the beam displacement model. They conclude with discussions about the relevance of the results for general misalignment profiles

  10. Reconstructing misaligned x-ray CT data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Divin, C. J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2016-10-24

    Misalignment errors for x-ray computed tomography (CT) systems can manifest as artifacts and a loss of spatial and contrast resolution. To mitigate artifacts, significant effort is taken to determine the system geometry and minimizing any residual error in the system alignment. This project improved our ability to post-correct data which was acquired on a misaligned CT system.

  11. Impact of the Velo 2 half misalignment on physical quantities

    CERN Document Server

    Roguljic, Matej; Borghi, Silvia; Grillo, Lucia; CERN. Geneva. EP Department

    2016-01-01

    The impact of the misalignment of the Vertex Locator of the LHCb experiment on the physical quantities of the decay "$D^{*+} \\rightarrow (D^{0}\\rightarrow K^{-}\\pi^{+}) \\pi^{+} $" is studied in this note. Different misalignments of the 2 halves are applied to Monte Carlo data and the variations of the physical quantities with respect to the case without misalignment are evaluated. The results show the importance of the VELO 2 half alignment which can significantly affect the physics performance in the large misalignment case. A misalignment equal to the precision of the real-time alignment of the Vertex Locator is found to have a negligible effect on the studied physical quantities.

  12. Misalignment under different exchange rate regimes: the case of Turkey

    OpenAIRE

    Dağdeviren, Sengül; Ogus Binatli, Ayla; Sohrabji, Niloufer

    2011-01-01

    The paper examines misalignment of the Turkish lira between 1998 to 2008. Misalignment, specifically overvaluation has been linked to fixed exchange rate regimes. By studying the case of Turkey during this period which covers both a fixed and floating exchange rate regime, we contribute to the literature on the relation between misalignment and exchange rate regimes. We first estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate for Turkey, then compute misalignment and finally test for structural brea...

  13. Load alleviation of wind turbines by yaw misalignment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kragh, Knud Abildgaard; Hansen, Morten Hartvig

    2014-01-01

    Vertical wind shear is one of the dominating causes of load variations on the blades of a horizontal axis wind turbine. To alleviate the varying loads, wind turbine control systems have been augmented with sensors and actuators for individual pitch control. However, the loads caused by a vertical...... wind shear can also be affected through yaw misalignment. Recent studies of yaw control have been focused on improving the yaw alignment to increase the power capture at below rated wind speeds. In this study, the potential of alleviating blade load variations induced by the wind shear through yaw...... misalignment is assessed. The study is performed through simulations of a reference turbine. The study shows that optimal yaw misalignment angles for minimizing the blade load variations can be identified for both deterministic and turbulent inflows. It is shown that the optimal yaw misalignment angles can...

  14. Polar transfer alignment of shipborne SINS with a large misalignment angle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheng, Jianhua; Wang, Tongda; Guan, Dongxue; Li, Meiling

    2016-01-01

    Existing polar transfer alignment (TA) algorithms are designed based on linear Kalman filters (KF) to estimate misalignment angles. In the case of a large misalignment angle, these algorithms cannot be applied in order to achieve accurate TA. In this paper, a TA algorithm based on an unscented Kalman filter (UKF) is proposed to solve the problem of the large misalignment angle in the polar region. Based on a large misalignment angle, nonlinear navigation error equations, which are the UKF dynamic models, are derived under grid frames. This paper chooses the velocity plus attitude matching method as the TA matching method and errors of velocity and attitude as observations. The misalignment angle can be estimated by the designed UKF. The simulation results have demonstrated that the polar TA algorithm can be effective in improving the TA accuracy, especially when large misalignment angles occur. (paper)

  15. Meshing Force of Misaligned Spline Coupling and the Influence on Rotor System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guang Zhao

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Meshing force of misaligned spline coupling is derived, dynamic equation of rotor-spline coupling system is established based on finite element analysis, the influence of meshing force on rotor-spline coupling system is simulated by numerical integral method. According to the theoretical analysis, meshing force of spline coupling is related to coupling parameters, misalignment, transmitting torque, static misalignment, dynamic vibration displacement, and so on. The meshing force increases nonlinearly with increasing the spline thickness and static misalignment or decreasing alignment meshing distance (AMD. Stiffness of coupling relates to dynamic vibration displacement, and static misalignment is not a constant. Dynamic behaviors of rotor-spline coupling system reveal the following: 1X-rotating speed is the main response frequency of system when there is no misalignment; while 2X-rotating speed appears when misalignment is present. Moreover, when misalignment increases, vibration of the system gets intricate; shaft orbit departs from origin, and magnitudes of all frequencies increase. Research results can provide important criterions on both optimization design of spline coupling and trouble shooting of rotor systems.

  16. Image features for misalignment correction in medical flat-detector CT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wicklein, Julia; Kunze, Holger; Kalender, Willi A.; Kyriakou, Yiannis

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: Misalignment artifacts are a serious problem in medical flat-detector computed tomography. Generally, the geometrical parameters, which are essential for reconstruction, are provided by preceding calibration routines. These procedures are time consuming and the later use of stored parameters is sensitive toward external impacts or patient movement. The method of choice in a clinical environment would be a markerless online-calibration procedure that allows flexible scan trajectories and simultaneously corrects misalignment and motion artifacts during the reconstruction process. Therefore, different image features were evaluated according to their capability of quantifying misalignment. Methods: Projections of the FORBILD head and thorax phantoms were simulated. Additionally, acquisitions of a head phantom and patient data were used for evaluation. For the reconstruction different sources and magnitudes of misalignment were introduced in the geometry description. The resulting volumes were analyzed by entropy (based on the gray-level histogram), total variation, Gabor filter texture features, Haralick co-occurrence features, and Tamura texture features. The feature results were compared to the back-projection mismatch of the disturbed geometry. Results: The evaluations demonstrate the ability of several well-established image features to classify misalignment. The authors elaborated the particular suitability of the gray-level histogram-based entropy on identifying misalignment artifacts, after applying an appropriate window level (bone window). Conclusions: Some of the proposed feature extraction algorithms show a strong correlation with the misalignment level. Especially, entropy-based methods showed very good correspondence, with the best of these being the type that uses the gray-level histogram for calculation. This makes it a suitable image feature for online-calibration.

  17. Misalignment tolerable coil structure for biomedical applications with wireless power transfer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chow, Jeff P W; Chen, Nan; Chung, Henry S H; Chan, Leanne L H

    2013-01-01

    Coil-misalignment is one of the major hurdles for inductively coupled wireless power transfer in applications like retinal prosthesis. Weak magnetic flux linkage due to coil misalignments would significantly impair the power efficiency. A novel receiver configuration with high misalignment tolerance is presented in this paper. The proposed receiver is composed of two receiver coils placed orthogonally, so as to reduce the variation of mutual inductance between transmitting and receiving coils under misalignment conditions. Three different receiver coil structures are analyzed and compared using the same length of wire. Theoretical predictions have been confirmed with measurement results.

  18. Measurement of misalignment in a journal bearing with low frequency ultrasound

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Noh Nu

    1998-01-01

    Misalignment of a shaft in journal bearing of rotary compressor was measured and analyzed for the study on the effect of misalignment on the performance of the rotary compressor using a new ultrasonic pulse-echo technique. Two low-frequency ultrasonic transducers(10Mhz) were mounted on the outer surface of the bearing in X and Y axis to receive the reflection signals from each axis and to obtain the amplitude of a modified reflection wave defined as the total reflection wave minus the first reflection wave from a thin layer which is inversely proportional to the thickness of the layer in the region where h/λ is approximately less than 1/4. The relationship of the amplitude of the modified reflection wave to the thickness of the oil layer was shown both in mathematical form and in graph. Gap clearances between the bearing and the shaft in the horizontal and vertical axis were determined directly by the relationship and used to evaluate the misalignment of the journal bearing. Several intentional misalignments in a test compressor were made to measure and show the misalignment and the effect of the misalignment on the efficiency of the rotary compressor. A fast quantitative evaluation of the misalignment of journal bearing was possible using the amplitude of the modified reflection signal without any inversion process to extract thickness information from waveforms of the reflected waves.

  19. The nonvisual illusion of self-touch: Misaligned hands and anatomical implausibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Rebekah C; Weinberg, Jennifer L; Aimola Davies, Anne M

    2015-01-01

    The self-touch illusion is elicited when the participant (with eyes closed) administers brushstrokes to a prosthetic hand while the examiner administers synchronous brushstrokes to the participant's other (receptive) hand. In three experiments we investigated the effects of misalignment on the self-touch illusion. In experiment 1 we manipulated alignment (0 degrees, 45 degrees, 90 degrees, 135 degrees, 180 degrees) of the prosthetic hand relative to the participant's receptive hand. The illusion was equally strong at 0 degrees and 45 degrees: the two conditions in which the prosthetic hand was in an anatomically plausible orientation. To investigate whether the illusion was diminished at 90 degrees (and beyond) by anatomical implausibility rather than by misalignment, in experiment 2 hand positioning was changed. The illusion was equally strong at 0 degrees, 45 degrees, and 90 degrees, but diminished at 135 degrees despite the prosthetic hand now being in an anatomically plausible orientation. Thus the illusion is diminished with misalignment of 135 degrees, irrespective of anatomical plausibility. Having demonstrated that the illusion was equally strong with the hands aligned (0 degrees) or misaligned by 45 degrees, in experiment 3 we demonstrated that participants did not detect a 45 degrees misalignment. Large degrees of misalignment prevent a compelling experience of the self-touch illusion, and the self-touch illusion prevents detection of small degrees of misalignment.

  20. THE GRAVITATIONAL INTERACTION BETWEEN PLANETS ON INCLINED ORBITS AND PROTOPLANETARY DISKS AS THE ORIGIN OF PRIMORDIAL SPIN–ORBIT MISALIGNMENTS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matsakos, Titos; Königl, Arieh [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics and The Enrico Fermi Institute, The University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637 (United States)

    2017-02-01

    Many of the observed spin–orbit alignment properties of exoplanets can be explained in the context of the primordial disk misalignment model, in which an initially aligned protoplanetary disk is torqued by a distant stellar companion on a misaligned orbit, resulting in a precessional motion that can lead to large-amplitude oscillations of the spin–orbit angle. We consider a variant of this model in which the companion is a giant planet with an orbital radius of a few astronomical units. Guided by the results of published numerical simulations, we model the dynamical evolution of this system by dividing the disk into inner and outer parts—separated at the location of the planet—that behave as distinct, rigid disks. We show that the planet misaligns the inner disk even as the orientation of the outer disk remains unchanged. In addition to the oscillations induced by the precessional motion, whose amplitude is larger the smaller the initial inner-disk-to-planet mass ratio, the spin–orbit angle also exhibits a secular growth in this case—driven by ongoing mass depletion from the disk—that becomes significant when the inner disk’s angular momentum drops below that of the planet. Altogether, these two effects can produce significant misalignment angles for the inner disk, including retrograde configurations. We discuss these results within the framework of the Stranded Hot Jupiter scenario and consider their implications, including the interpretation of the alignment properties of debris disks.

  1. 9Real exchange rate misalignment and economic performance in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    the impact of real exchange rate misalignment has not received adequate attention .... investment (FDI) and the commercial exploitation of oil in 1999. Notably, the flow of .... the analysis proceeds in two steps: 1) we measure the exchange rate misalignment, ... non-tradable goods (TAX) and the net foreign income (NFI).

  2. The misalignment angle in vessel-mounted ADCP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Osinski

    2000-09-01

    Full Text Available A description of the misalignment angle and the consequences if it occurs is given. It is shown that because of gyrocompass errors, the misalignment angle error a has to be computed for each cruise. A simple method of calibrating the acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP mounted on a vessel has been devised by fitting the cosinusoidal function. This is a post-processing method, suitable for calibrating previously collected data. Nevertheless, because of ADCP's constructional peculiarities, the procedure must be repeated for each cruise.

  3. A comparative study of misalignment detection using a novel Wireless Sensor with conventional Wired Sensors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arebi, L; Gu, F; Ball, A

    2012-01-01

    The advancement in low cost and low power MEMS sensors makes it possible to develop a cost-effective wireless accelerometer for condition monitoring. Especially, the MEMS accelerometer can be mounted directly on a rotating shaft, which has the potential to capture the dynamics of the shaft more accurately and hence to achieve high monitoring performance. In this paper a systematic comparison of shaft misalignment detection is conducted, based on a bearing test rig, between the wireless sensor measurement scheme and other three common sensors: a laser vibrometer, an accelerometer and a shaft encoder. These four sensors are used to measure simultaneously the dynamic responses: Instantaneous Angular Speed (IAS) from the encoder, bearing house acceleration from the accelerometer, shaft displacements from the laser vibrometer and angular acceleration from the wireless sensor. These responses are then compared in both the time and frequency domains in detecting and diagnosing different levels of shaft misalignment. Results show the effectiveness of wireless accelerometer in detecting the faults.

  4. Does Misaligned Currency Affect Economic Growth? – Evidence from Croatia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tonći Svilokos

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this paper is to measure the currency misalignment of the Croatian kuna and to reveal whether it affects economic growth for the period 2001 (Q1 to 2013 (Q3. The estimate relies on recent cointegration techniques, VAR models and Granger causality tests. The findings show that there are two misalignment sub-periods for the Croatian kuna: undervaluation in the period from 2000Q1 to 2007Q4 and overvaluation in the period from 2008Q1 to 2013Q3. The evidence reveals that for the whole sample period, the Granger causality goes from misalignments (MISA to GDP growth under the 10 percent significance level. However, for the two sub-periods no evidence of Granger causality from MISA to GDP growth or vice versa is found. The research also reveals that the currency misalignments in the observed period are relatively small.

  5. Method of measuring misalignment of welded threaded connections

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kasatkin, V I

    1981-01-01

    A method is presented for measuring misalignment of welded connections by special attachment, superposed indicator. Requirements are analyzed for welding the threaded sleeves established by specifications. It is shown that measurement of the slack only in one section on the selected base is insufficient for monitoring the geometry of the connected pipe parts. It is suggested that in order to evaluate the misalignment the concept of total slack be used and formulas are derived to define it.

  6. Trade rules and exchange rate misalignments: in search for a WTO solution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vera Thorstensen

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The debate on the link between trade rules and rules on exchange rates is raising the attention of experts on international trade law and economics. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on tariffs as applied by the WTO - World Trade Organization. It is divided into five sections: the first one explains the methodology used to determine exchange rate misalignments and also presents its results for Brazil, U.S. and China; the second summarizes the methodology applied to calculate the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on the level of tariff protection through an exercise of "misalignment tariffication"; the third examines the effects of exchange rate variations on tariffs and their consequences for the multilateral trading system; the fourth one creates a methodology to estimate exchange rates against a currency of the World and a proposal to deal with persistent and significant misalignments related to trade rules. The conclusions are present in the last section.

  7. On-Orbit Camera Misalignment Estimation Framework and Its Application to Earth Observation Satellite

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seungwoo Lee

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Despite the efforts for precise alignment of imaging sensors and attitude sensors before launch, the accuracy of pre-launch alignment is limited. The misalignment between attitude frame and camera frame is especially important as it is related to the localization error of the spacecraft, which is one of the essential factors of satellite image quality. In this paper, a framework for camera misalignment estimation is presented with its application to a high-resolution earth-observation satellite—Deimos-2. The framework intends to provide a solution for estimation and correction of the camera misalignment of a spacecraft, covering image acquisition planning to mathematical solution of camera misalignment. Considerations for effective image acquisition planning to obtain reliable results are discussed, followed by a detailed description on a practical method for extracting many GCPs automatically using reference ortho-photos. Patterns of localization errors that commonly occur due to the camera misalignment are also investigated. A mathematical model for camera misalignment estimation is described comprehensively. The results of simulation experiments showing the validity and accuracy of the misalignment estimation model are provided. The proposed framework was applied to Deimos-2. The real-world data and results from Deimos-2 are presented.

  8. Steam turbine coupling misalignment detection by vibrational analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Behzad, M.; Asoyesh, M.

    2001-01-01

    Machinery troubleshooting and diagnostics via vibration analysis have historically been proven, and once again become enlightened topics with the recent popularity of predictive maintenance programs. Among several causes of vibration of turbomachinery, coupling misalignment plays an important role.The results of a theoretical analysis of coupling misalignment and its frequency spectrum characteristics, which can be used for predictive maintenance programs, are compared with other numerical investigations and practical results. The analytical method used in this research is very straightforward and does not need any computer programming

  9. A panel data investigation of real exchange rate misalignment and growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flávio Vilela Vieira

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper investigates the role of real exchange rate misalignment on long-run growth for a set of ninety countries using time series data from 1980 to 2004. We first estimate a panel data model (fixed and random effects for the real exchange rate in order to produce estimates of the equilibrium real exchange rate and this is then used to construct measures of real exchange rate misalignment. We provide an alternative set of estimates of RER misalignment using panel cointegration methods. The results for the two-step System GMM panel growth models indicate that the coefficients for real exchange rate misalignment are positive for different model specification and samples, which means that a more depreciated (appreciated real exchange rate helps (harms long-run growth. The estimated coefficients are higher for developing and emerging countries.

  10. A tale of twin Higgs: natural twin two Higgs doublet models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, Jiang-Hao

    2016-01-01

    In original twin Higgs model, vacuum misalignment between electroweak and new physics scales is realized by adding explicit ℤ 2 breaking term. Introducing additional twin Higgs could accommodate spontaneous ℤ 2 breaking, which explains origin of this misalignment. We introduce a class of twin two Higgs doublet models with most general scalar potential, and discuss general conditions which trigger electroweak and ℤ 2 symmetry breaking. Various scenarios on realising the vacuum misalignment are systematically discussed in a natural composite two Higgs double model framework: explicit ℤ 2 breaking, radiative ℤ 2 breaking, tadpole-induced ℤ 2 breaking, and quartic-induced ℤ 2 breaking. We investigate the Higgs mass spectra and Higgs phenomenology in these scenarios.

  11. Representing Misalignments of the STAR Geometry Model using AgML

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Jason C.; Lauret, Jérôme; Perevotchikov, Victor; Smirnov, Dmitri; Van Buren, Gene

    2017-10-01

    The STAR Heavy Flavor Tracker (HFT) was designed to provide high-precision tracking for the identification of charmed hadron decays in heavy-ion collisions at RHIC. It consists of three independently mounted subsystems, providing four precision measurements along the track trajectory, with the goal of pointing decay daughters back to vertices displaced by less than 100 microns from the primary event vertex. The ultimate efficiency and resolution of the physics analysis will be driven by the quality of the simulation and reconstruction of events in heavy-ion collisions. In particular, it is important that the geometry model properly accounts for the relative misalignments of the HFT subsystems, along with the alignment of the HFT relative to STARs primary tracking detector, the Time Projection Chamber (TPC). The Abstract Geometry Modeling Language (AgML) provides a single description of the STAR geometry, generating both our simulation (GEANT 3) and reconstruction geometries (ROOT). AgML implements an ideal detector model, while misalignments are stored separately in database tables. These have historically been applied at the hit level. Simulated detector hits are projected from their ideal position along the track’s trajectory, until they intersect the misaligned detector volume, where the struck detector element is calculated for hit digitization. This scheme has worked well as hit errors have been negligible compared with the size of sensitive volumes. The precision and complexity of the HFT detector require us to apply misalignments to the detector volumes themselves. In this paper we summarize the extension of the AgML language and support libraries to enable the static misalignment of our reconstruction and simulation geometries, discussing the design goals, limitations and path to full misalignment support in ROOT/VMC-based simulation.

  12. An Improved Pansharpening Method for Misaligned Panchromatic and Multispectral Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Hui; Jing, Linhai; Tang, Yunwei; Ding, Haifeng

    2018-02-11

    Numerous pansharpening methods were proposed in recent decades for fusing low-spatial-resolution multispectral (MS) images with high-spatial-resolution (HSR) panchromatic (PAN) bands to produce fused HSR MS images, which are widely used in various remote sensing tasks. The effect of misregistration between MS and PAN bands on quality of fused products has gained much attention in recent years. An improved method for misaligned MS and PAN imagery is proposed, through two improvements made on a previously published method named RMI (reduce misalignment impact). The performance of the proposed method was assessed by comparing with some outstanding fusion methods, such as adaptive Gram-Schmidt and generalized Laplacian pyramid. Experimental results show that the improved version can reduce spectral distortions of fused dark pixels and sharpen boundaries between different image objects, as well as obtain similar quality indexes with the original RMI method. In addition, the proposed method was evaluated with respect to its sensitivity to misalignments between MS and PAN bands. It is certified that the proposed method is more robust to misalignments between MS and PAN bands than the other methods.

  13. Power deposition on misaligned edges in COMPASS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Dejarnac

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available If the decision is made not to apply a toroidal chamfer to tungsten monoblocks at ITER divertor vertical targets, exposed leading edges will arise as a result of assembly tolerances between adjacent plasma-facing components. Then, the advantage of glancing magnetic field angles for spreading plasma heat flux on top surfaces is lost at the misaligned edges with an interaction occurring at near normal incidence, which can drive melting for the expected inter-ELM heat fluxes. A dedicated experiment has been performed on the COMPASS tokamak to thoroughly study power deposition on misaligned edges using inner-wall limited discharges on a special graphite tile presenting gaps and leading edges directly viewed by a high resolution infra-red camera. The parallel power flux deducted from the unperturbed measurement far from the gap is fully consistent with the observed temperature increase at the leading edge, respecting the power balance. All the power flowing into the gap is deposited at the leading edge and no mitigation factor is required to explain the thermal response. Particle-in-cell simulations show that the ion Larmor smoothing effect is weak and that the power deposition on misaligned edges is well described by the optical approximation because of an electron dominated regime associated with non-ambipolar parallel current flow.

  14. Computation of misalignment and primary mirror astigmatism figure error of two-mirror telescopes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Zhiyuan; Wang, Yang; Ju, Guohao; Yan, Changxiang

    2018-01-01

    Active optics usually uses the computation models based on numerical methods to correct misalignments and figure errors at present. These methods can hardly lead to any insight into the aberration field dependencies that arise in the presence of the misalignments. An analytical alignment model based on third-order nodal aberration theory is presented for this problem, which can be utilized to compute the primary mirror astigmatic figure error and misalignments for two-mirror telescopes. Alignment simulations are conducted for an R-C telescope based on this analytical alignment model. It is shown that in the absence of wavefront measurement errors, wavefront measurements at only two field points are enough, and the correction process can be completed with only one alignment action. In the presence of wavefront measurement errors, increasing the number of field points for wavefront measurements can enhance the robustness of the alignment model. Monte Carlo simulation shows that, when -2 mm ≤ linear misalignment ≤ 2 mm, -0.1 deg ≤ angular misalignment ≤ 0.1 deg, and -0.2 λ ≤ astigmatism figure error (expressed as fringe Zernike coefficients C5 / C6, λ = 632.8 nm) ≤0.2 λ, the misaligned systems can be corrected to be close to nominal state without wavefront testing error. In addition, the root mean square deviation of RMS wavefront error of all the misaligned samples after being corrected is linearly related to wavefront testing error.

  15. Phase correction for a Michelson interferometer with misaligned mirrors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goorvitch, D.

    1975-01-01

    The phase correction for a Michelson interferometer with misaligned mirrors in converging light is shown to give rise to a quadratic phase shift. In general, the calculation of a spectrum from the measured interferogram needs phase correction. Phase corrections have been well worked out for the cases of a linear phase shift and a phase that is slowly varying. The standard procedures for correcting calculated spectra need to be modified, however, to remove any phase errors resulting from misaligned mirrors.

  16. A tale of twin Higgs: natural twin two Higgs doublet models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, Jiang-Hao [Amherst Center for Fundamental Interactions, Department of Physics,University of Massachusetts Amherst,710 North Pleasant St., Amherst, MA 01002 (United States)

    2016-12-28

    In original twin Higgs model, vacuum misalignment between electroweak and new physics scales is realized by adding explicit ℤ{sub 2} breaking term. Introducing additional twin Higgs could accommodate spontaneous ℤ{sub 2} breaking, which explains origin of this misalignment. We introduce a class of twin two Higgs doublet models with most general scalar potential, and discuss general conditions which trigger electroweak and ℤ{sub 2} symmetry breaking. Various scenarios on realising the vacuum misalignment are systematically discussed in a natural composite two Higgs double model framework: explicit ℤ{sub 2} breaking, radiative ℤ{sub 2} breaking, tadpole-induced ℤ{sub 2} breaking, and quartic-induced ℤ{sub 2} breaking. We investigate the Higgs mass spectra and Higgs phenomenology in these scenarios.

  17. Beam pointing direction changes in a misaligned Porro prism resonator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jyh-Fa; Leung, Chung-Yee

    1988-07-01

    The relative change of the beam pointing direction for a misaligned Porro prism resonator has been analyzed, using an oscillation axis concept for the Porro prism resonator to find the beam direction. Expressions for the beam tilting angles are presented which show that the angular misalignment in the horizontal direction will result in beam tilting in both the horizontal and vertical directions. Good agreement between experimental and theoretical results is found.

  18. Worm gear efficiency model considering misalignment in electric power steering systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. H. Kim

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available This study proposes a worm gear efficiency model considering misalignment in electric power steering systems. A worm gear is used in Column type Electric Power Steering (C-EPS systems and an Anti-Rattle Spring (ARS is employed in C-EPS systems in order to prevent rattling when the vehicle goes on a bumpy road. This ARS plays a role of preventing rattling by applying preload to one end of the worm shaft but it also generates undesirable friction by causing misalignment of the worm shaft. In order to propose the worm gear efficiency model considering misalignment, geometrical and tribological analyses were performed in this study. For geometrical analysis, normal load on gear teeth was calculated using output torque, pitch diameter of worm wheel, lead angle and normal pressure angle and this normal load was converted to normal pressure at the contact point. Contact points between the tooth flanks of the worm and worm wheel were obtained by mathematically analyzing the geometry, and Hertz's theory was employed in order to calculate contact area at the contact point. Finally, misalignment by an ARS was also considered into the geometry. Friction coefficients between the tooth flanks were also researched in this study. A pin-on-disk type tribometer was set up to measure friction coefficients and friction coefficients at all conditions were measured by the tribometer. In order to validate the worm gear efficiency model, a worm gear was prepared and the efficiency of the worm gear was predicted by the model. As the final procedure of the study, a worm gear efficiency measurement system was set and the efficiency of the worm gear was measured and the results were compared with the predicted results. The efficiency considering misalignment gives more accurate results than the efficiency without misalignment.

  19. Self-consistent study of space-charge-dominated beams in a misaligned transport system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sing Babu, P.; Goswami, A.; Pandit, V.S.

    2013-01-01

    A self-consistent particle-in-cell (PIC) simulation method is developed to investigate the dynamics of space-charge-dominated beams through a misaligned solenoid based transport system. Evolution of beam centroid, beam envelope and emittance is studied as a function of misalignment parameters for various types of beam distributions. Simulation results performed up to 40 mA of proton beam indicate that centroid oscillations induced by the displacement and rotational misalignments of solenoids do not depend of the beam distribution. It is shown that the beam envelope around the centroid is independent of the centroid motion for small centroid oscillation. In addition, we have estimated the loss of beam during the transport caused by the misalignment for various beam distributions

  20. THE TURBULENT ORIGIN OF OUTFLOW AND SPIN MISALIGNMENT IN MULTIPLE STAR SYSTEMS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Offner, Stella S. R.; Lee, Katherine I.; Arce, Héctor G.; Fielding, Drummond B. [Department of Astronomy, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003 (United States); Dunham, Michael M., E-mail: soffner@astro.umass.edu [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States)

    2016-08-10

    The protostellar outflows of wide-separation forming binaries frequently appear misaligned. We use magneto-hydrodynamic simulations to investigate the alignment of protostellar spin and molecular outflows for forming binary pairs. We show that the protostellar pairs, which form from turbulent fragmentation within a single parent core, have randomly oriented angular momentum. Although the pairs migrate to closer separations, their spins remain partially misaligned. We produce {sup 12}CO(2-1) synthetic observations of the simulations and characterize the outflow orientation in the emission maps. The CO-identified outflows exhibit a similar random distribution and are also statistically consistent with the observed distribution of molecular outflows. We conclude that the observed misalignment provides a clear signature of binary formation via turbulent fragmentation. The persistence of misaligned outflows and stellar spins following dynamical evolution may provide a signature of binary origins for more evolved multiple star systems.

  1. THE TURBULENT ORIGIN OF OUTFLOW AND SPIN MISALIGNMENT IN MULTIPLE STAR SYSTEMS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Offner, Stella S. R.; Lee, Katherine I.; Arce, Héctor G.; Fielding, Drummond B.; Dunham, Michael M.

    2016-01-01

    The protostellar outflows of wide-separation forming binaries frequently appear misaligned. We use magneto-hydrodynamic simulations to investigate the alignment of protostellar spin and molecular outflows for forming binary pairs. We show that the protostellar pairs, which form from turbulent fragmentation within a single parent core, have randomly oriented angular momentum. Although the pairs migrate to closer separations, their spins remain partially misaligned. We produce 12 CO(2-1) synthetic observations of the simulations and characterize the outflow orientation in the emission maps. The CO-identified outflows exhibit a similar random distribution and are also statistically consistent with the observed distribution of molecular outflows. We conclude that the observed misalignment provides a clear signature of binary formation via turbulent fragmentation. The persistence of misaligned outflows and stellar spins following dynamical evolution may provide a signature of binary origins for more evolved multiple star systems.

  2. The effects of real exchange rate misalignment and real exchange volatility on exports

    OpenAIRE

    Diallo, Ibrahima Amadou

    2011-01-01

    This paper uses panel data cointegration techniques to study the impacts of real exchange rate misalignment and real exchange rate volatility on total exports for a panel of 42 developing countries from 1975 to 2004. The results show that both real exchange rate misalignment and real exchange rate volatility affect negatively exports. The results also illustrate that real exchange rate volatility is more harmful to exports than misalignment. These outcomes are corroborated by estimations on s...

  3. Analisa Pengaruh Parallel-Misalignment dan Tingkat Getaran yang Terjadi pada Pulley Depericarper Fan

    OpenAIRE

    Situmorang, Lastri

    2016-01-01

    Depericarper fan consists of two pulleys, one as a driver and the other as a driven. The construction of the two pulleys that is not aligned can cause two pulleys run into parallel-misalignment.The parallel-misalignment pulley causing of vibration that can influence machine performance and decrease of power transmission. The purpose of the research are to known of influence parallel-misalignment against vibrations and rotation that occurs on depericarper fan. The research is done by using las...

  4. Circadian Misalignment Increases C-Reactive Protein and Blood Pressure in Chronic Shift Workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Christopher J; Purvis, Taylor E; Mistretta, Joseph; Hu, Kun; Scheer, Frank A J L

    2017-04-01

    Shift work is a risk factor for inflammation, hypertension, and cardiovascular disease. This increased risk cannot be fully explained by classical risk factors. Shift workers' behavioral and environmental cycles are typically misaligned relative to their endogenous circadian system. However, there is little information on the impact of acute circadian misalignment on cardiovascular disease risk in shift workers, independent of differences in work stress, food quality, and other factors that are likely to differ between night and day shifts. Thus, our objectives were to determine the independent effect of circadian misalignment on 24-h high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP; a marker of systemic inflammation) and blood pressure levels-cardiovascular disease risk factors-in chronic shift workers. Chronic shift workers undertook two 3-day laboratory protocols that simulated night work, comprising 12-hour inverted behavioral and environmental cycles (circadian misalignment) or simulated day work (circadian alignment), using a randomized, crossover design. Circadian misalignment increased 24-h hs-CRP by 11% ( p shift workers. This may help explain the increased inflammation, hypertension, and cardiovascular disease risk in shift workers.

  5. Effect of Misalignment between Successive Corneal Videokeratography Maps on the Repeatability of Topography Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bao, FangJun; Wang, JunJie; Huang, JinHai; Yu, Ye; Deng, ManLi; Li, LinNa; Yu, AYong; Wang, QinMei; Davey, Pinakin Gunvant; Elsheikh, Ahmed

    2015-01-01

    Purpose To improve the reliability of corneal topographic data through the development of a method to estimate the magnitude of misalignment between successive corneal videokeratography (VK) maps and eliminate the effect of misalignment on the repeatability of topography data. Methods Anterior and posterior topography maps were recorded twice for 124 healthy eyes of 124 participants using a Pentacam, and the repeatability of measurements was assessed by calculating the differences in elevation between each two sets of data. The repeatability of measurements was re-assessed following the determination of the magnitude of misalignment components (translational displacements: x0, y0 and z0, and rotational displacements: α, β and γ) between each two data sets and using them to modify the second data set within each pair based on an Iterative Closest Point (ICP) algorithm. The method simultaneously considered the anterior and posterior maps taken for the same eye since they were assumed to have the same set of misalignment components. A new parameter, named Combined Misalignment parameter (CM), has been developed to combine the effect of all six misalignment components on topography data and so enable study of the association between misalignment and the data repeatability test results. Results The repeatability tests resulted in average root mean square (RMS) differences in elevation data of 8.46±2.75 μm before ICP map matching when simultaneously considering anterior and posterior surfaces. With map matching and misalignment correction, the differences decreased to 7.28±2.58 μm (P = 0.00). When applied to only the anterior maps, misalignment correction led to a more pronounced reduction in elevation data differences from 4.58±1.84 μm to 2.97±1.29 μm (P = 0.00). CM was found to be associated with the repeatability error (P = 0.00), with posterior maps being responsible for most of the error due to their relatively lower accuracy compared to anterior maps

  6. Anisotropic metamaterial for efficiency enhancement of mid-range wireless power transfer under coil misalignment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ranaweera, A L A K; Moscoso, Carlos Arriola; Lee, Jong-Wook

    2015-01-01

    In a wireless power transfer (WPT) system, misalignment between transmitter and receiver coils is one of the key factors affecting efficiency. Recently, metamaterials have shown great potential to enhance electromagnetic propagation in various environments. In this work, we apply a metamaterial to enhance the WPT in a more general environment where misalignment is considered. Using an anisotropic metamaterial, we obtain a significant efficiency enhancement. Therefore, we propose that the metamaterial is an effective means to mitigate the decreased efficiency caused by misalignment. In addition, we investigate the effect of coil misalignment on the threshold distance beyond which the metamaterial enhances the performance of WPT. (paper)

  7. Correlation Between Pin Misalignment and Crack Length in THT Solder Joints

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Molnar A.

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In this manuscript, correlations were searched for between pin misalignments relative to PCB bores and crack propagation after cyclic thermal shock tests in THT solder joints produced from lead-free solder alloys. In total, 7 compositions were examined including SAC solders with varying Ag, Cu and Ni contents. The crack propagation was initiated by cyclic thermal shock tests with 40°C / +125°C temperature profiles. Pin misalignments relative to the bores were characterized with three attributes obtained from one section of the examined solder joints. Cracks typically originated at the solder/pin or solder/bore interfaces and propagated within the solder. It was shown that pin misalignments did not have an effect on crack propagation, thus, the solder joints’ lifetime.

  8. Misalignment corrections in optical interconnects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Deqiang

    Optical interconnects are considered a promising solution for long distance and high bitrate data transmissions, outperforming electrical interconnects in terms of loss and dispersion. Due to the bandwidth and distance advantage of optical interconnects, longer links have been implemented with optics. Recent studies show that optical interconnects have clear advantages even at very short distances---intra system interconnects. The biggest challenge for such optical interconnects is the alignment tolerance. Many free space optical components require very precise assembly and installation, and therefore the overall cost could be increased. This thesis studied the misalignment tolerance and possible alignment correction solutions for optical interconnects at backplane or board level. First the alignment tolerance for free space couplers was simulated and the result indicated the most critical alignments occur between the VCSEL, waveguide and microlens arrays. An in-situ microlens array fabrication method was designed and experimentally demonstrated, with no observable misalignment with the waveguide array. At the receiver side, conical lens arrays were proposed to replace simple microlens arrays for a larger angular alignment tolerance. Multilayer simulation models in CodeV were built to optimized the refractive index and shape profiles of the conical lens arrays. Conical lenses fabricated with micro injection molding machine and fiber etching were characterized. Active component VCSOA was used to correct misalignment in optical connectors between the board and backplane. The alignment correction capability were characterized for both DC and AC (1GHz) optical signal. The speed and bandwidth of the VCSOA was measured and compared with a same structure VCSEL. Based on the optical inverter being studied in our lab, an all-optical flip-flop was demonstrated using a pair of VCSOAs. This memory cell with random access ability can store one bit optical signal with set or

  9. Nonlinear effects caused by coupling misalignment in rotors equipped with journal bearings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pennacchi, Paolo; Vania, Andrea; Chatterton, Steven

    2012-07-01

    Misalignment is one of the most common sources of trouble of rotating machinery when rigid couplings connect the shafts. Ideal alignment of the shafts is difficult to be obtained and rotors may present angular and/or parallel misalignment (defined also as radial misalignment or offset). During a complete shaft revolution, a periodical change of the bearings load occurs in hyperstatic shaft-lines, if coupling misalignment between the shafts is excessive. If the rotating machine is equipped with fluid-film journal bearings, the change of the loads on the bearing causes also the variation of their instantaneous dynamic characteristics, i.e. damping and stiffness, and the complete system cannot be considered any longer as linear. Despite misalignment is often observed in the practice, there are relatively few studies about this phenomenon in literature and their results are sometimes conflicting. The authors aim at modeling accurately this phenomenon, for the first time in this paper, and giving pertinent diagnostic information. The proposed method is suitable for every type of shaft-line supported by journal bearings. A finite element model is used for the hyperstatic shaft-line, while bearing characteristics are calculated by integrating Reynolds equation as a function of the instantaneous load acting on the bearings, caused also by the coupling misalignment. The results obtained by applying the proposed method are shown by means of the simulation, in the time domain, of the dynamical response of a hyperstatic shaft-line. Nonlinear effects are highlighted and the spectral components of the system response are analyzed, in order to give diagnostic information about the signature of this type of fault.

  10. The symmetry, misalignment and kinematic evolution of double radio sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Macklin, J.T.

    1981-01-01

    The symmetry properties of a carefully selected sample of 76 double radio sources have been examined. It is found that: (1) The average intrinsic misalignment (the ratio of the displacement of the optical object to the source size, before projection) of these sources is 0.038, independent of the intrinsic size; (2) sources which are most misaligned tend to have the highest values of D, the ratio of hot-spot separations from the nucleus; (3) hot spots are more asymmetric in brightness than are tails; and (4) the relative brightness of hot spots is not correlated with D, but the relation between D and F, the ratio of total flux densities in components, implies that most of the diffuse structure tends to be associated with the hot spot closer to the optical identification. Computer simulations have been used to examine (2); this is best explained if the major contribution to the D distribution is independent of orientation and is correlated with the intrinsic misalignment. It is shown that (2) is in conflict with the hypothesis that motion of the parent galaxy relative to the intergalactic medium makes the dominant contribution to the observed misalignment. (3) and (4) can be explained in terms of a beam model of double radio sources which includes the effects of the external environment. (author)

  11. MUON DETECTORS: ALIGNMENT

    CERN Multimedia

    M. Dallavalle

    2013-01-01

    A new Muon misalignment scenario for 2011 (7 TeV) Monte Carlo re-processing was re-leased. The scenario is based on running of standard track-based reference-target algorithm (exactly as in data) using single-muon simulated sample (with the transverse-momentum spectrum matching data). It used statistics similar to what was used for alignment with 2011 data, starting from an initially misaligned Muon geometry from uncertainties of hardware measurements and using the latest Tracker misalignment geometry. Validation of the scenario (with muons from Z decay and high-pT simulated muons) shows that it describes data well. The study of systematic uncertainties (dominant by now due to huge amount of data collected by CMS and used for muon alignment) is finalised. Realistic alignment position errors are being obtained from the estimated uncertainties and are expected to improve the muon reconstruction performance. Concerning the Hardware Alignment System, the upgrade of the Barrel Alignment is in progress. By now, d...

  12. Influence of Misalignment on High-Order Aberration Correction for Normal Human Eyes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Hao-Xin; Xu, Bing; Xue, Li-Xia; Dai, Yun; Liu, Qian; Rao, Xue-Jun

    2008-04-01

    Although a compensation device can correct aberrations of human eyes, the effect will be degraded by its misalignment, especially for high-order aberration correction. We calculate the positioning tolerance of correction device for high-order aberrations, and within what degree the correcting effect is better than low-order aberration (defocus and astigmatism) correction. With fixed certain misalignment within the positioning tolerance, we calculate the residual wavefront rms aberration of the first-6 to first-35 terms along with the 3rd-5th terms of aberrations corrected, and the combined first-13 terms of aberrations are also studied under the same quantity of misalignment. However, the correction effect of high-order aberrations does not meliorate along with the increase of the high-order terms under some misalignment, moreover, some simple combined terms correction can achieve similar result as complex combinations. These results suggest that it is unnecessary to correct too much the terms of high-order aberrations which are difficult to accomplish in practice, and gives confidence to correct high-order aberrations out of the laboratory.

  13. Influence of Misalignment on High-Order Aberration Correction for Normal Human Eyes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hao-Xin, Zhao; Bing, Xu; Li-Xia, Xue; Yun, Dai; Qian, Liu; Xue-Jun, Rao

    2008-01-01

    Although a compensation device can correct aberrations of human eyes, the effect will be degraded by its misalignment, especially for high-order aberration correction. We calculate the positioning tolerance of correction device for high-order aberrations, and within what degree the correcting effect is better than low-order aberration (defocus and astigmatism) correction. With fixed certain misalignment within the positioning tolerance, we calculate the residual wavefront rms aberration of the first-6 to first-35 terms along with the 3rd-5th terms of aberrations corrected, and the combined first-13 terms of aberrations are also studied under the same quantity of misalignment. However, the correction effect of high-order aberrations does not meliorate along with the increase of the high-order terms under some misalignment, moreover, some simple combined terms correction can achieve similar result as complex combinations. These results suggest that it is unnecessary to correct too much the terms of high-order aberrations which are difficult to accomplish in practice, and gives confidence to correct high-order aberrations out of the laboratory

  14. A unified model for transfer alignment at random misalignment angles based on second-order EKF

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cui, Xiao; Qin, Yongyuan; Yan, Gongmin; Liu, Zhenbo; Mei, Chunbo

    2017-01-01

    In the transfer alignment process of inertial navigation systems (INSs), the conventional linear error model based on the small misalignment angle assumption cannot be applied to large misalignment situations. Furthermore, the nonlinear model based on the large misalignment angle suffers from redundant computation with nonlinear filters. This paper presents a unified model for transfer alignment suitable for arbitrary misalignment angles. The alignment problem is transformed into an estimation of the relative attitude between the master INS (MINS) and the slave INS (SINS), by decomposing the attitude matrix of the latter. Based on the Rodriguez parameters, a unified alignment model in the inertial frame with the linear state-space equation and a second order nonlinear measurement equation are established, without making any assumptions about the misalignment angles. Furthermore, we employ the Taylor series expansions on the second-order nonlinear measurement equation to implement the second-order extended Kalman filter (EKF2). Monte-Carlo simulations demonstrate that the initial alignment can be fulfilled within 10 s, with higher accuracy and much smaller computational cost compared with the traditional unscented Kalman filter (UKF) at large misalignment angles. (paper)

  15. A unified model for transfer alignment at random misalignment angles based on second-order EKF

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Xiao; Mei, Chunbo; Qin, Yongyuan; Yan, Gongmin; Liu, Zhenbo

    2017-04-01

    In the transfer alignment process of inertial navigation systems (INSs), the conventional linear error model based on the small misalignment angle assumption cannot be applied to large misalignment situations. Furthermore, the nonlinear model based on the large misalignment angle suffers from redundant computation with nonlinear filters. This paper presents a unified model for transfer alignment suitable for arbitrary misalignment angles. The alignment problem is transformed into an estimation of the relative attitude between the master INS (MINS) and the slave INS (SINS), by decomposing the attitude matrix of the latter. Based on the Rodriguez parameters, a unified alignment model in the inertial frame with the linear state-space equation and a second order nonlinear measurement equation are established, without making any assumptions about the misalignment angles. Furthermore, we employ the Taylor series expansions on the second-order nonlinear measurement equation to implement the second-order extended Kalman filter (EKF2). Monte-Carlo simulations demonstrate that the initial alignment can be fulfilled within 10 s, with higher accuracy and much smaller computational cost compared with the traditional unscented Kalman filter (UKF) at large misalignment angles.

  16. Misalignment calibration of geomagnetic vector measurement system using parallelepiped frame rotation method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pang, Hongfeng; Zhu, XueJun; Pan, Mengchun; Zhang, Qi; Wan, Chengbiao; Luo, Shitu; Chen, Dixiang; Chen, Jinfei; Li, Ji; Lv, Yunxiao

    2016-01-01

    Misalignment error is one key factor influencing the measurement accuracy of geomagnetic vector measurement system, which should be calibrated with the difficulties that sensors measure different physical information and coordinates are invisible. A new misalignment calibration method by rotating a parallelepiped frame is proposed. Simulation and experiment result show the effectiveness of calibration method. The experimental system mainly contains DM-050 three-axis fluxgate magnetometer, INS (inertia navigation system), aluminium parallelepiped frame, aluminium plane base. Misalignment angles are calculated by measured data of magnetometer and INS after rotating the aluminium parallelepiped frame on aluminium plane base. After calibration, RMS error of geomagnetic north, vertical and east are reduced from 349.441 nT, 392.530 nT and 562.316 nT to 40.130 nT, 91.586 nT and 141.989 nT respectively. - Highlights: • A new misalignment calibration method by rotating a parallelepiped frame is proposed. • It does not need to know sensor attitude information or local dip angle. • The calibration system attitude change angle is not strictly required. • It can be widely used when sensors measure different physical information. • Geomagnetic vector measurement error is reduced evidently.

  17. Misalignment calibration of geomagnetic vector measurement system using parallelepiped frame rotation method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pang, Hongfeng [Academy of Equipment, Beijing 101416 (China); College of Mechatronics Engineering and Automation, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073 (China); Zhu, XueJun, E-mail: zhuxuejun1990@126.com [College of Mechatronics Engineering and Automation, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073 (China); Pan, Mengchun; Zhang, Qi; Wan, Chengbiao; Luo, Shitu; Chen, Dixiang; Chen, Jinfei; Li, Ji; Lv, Yunxiao [College of Mechatronics Engineering and Automation, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073 (China)

    2016-12-01

    Misalignment error is one key factor influencing the measurement accuracy of geomagnetic vector measurement system, which should be calibrated with the difficulties that sensors measure different physical information and coordinates are invisible. A new misalignment calibration method by rotating a parallelepiped frame is proposed. Simulation and experiment result show the effectiveness of calibration method. The experimental system mainly contains DM-050 three-axis fluxgate magnetometer, INS (inertia navigation system), aluminium parallelepiped frame, aluminium plane base. Misalignment angles are calculated by measured data of magnetometer and INS after rotating the aluminium parallelepiped frame on aluminium plane base. After calibration, RMS error of geomagnetic north, vertical and east are reduced from 349.441 nT, 392.530 nT and 562.316 nT to 40.130 nT, 91.586 nT and 141.989 nT respectively. - Highlights: • A new misalignment calibration method by rotating a parallelepiped frame is proposed. • It does not need to know sensor attitude information or local dip angle. • The calibration system attitude change angle is not strictly required. • It can be widely used when sensors measure different physical information. • Geomagnetic vector measurement error is reduced evidently.

  18. real exchange rate misalignment and economic performance in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... effects of real exchange rate misalignment on economic performance in Nigeria. .... main factors that impacts on real exchange rate in India .... financial assets and ignores non-economic factor such as .... and fiscal policies to control inflation.

  19. Misalignment as legacy of an industrial leader

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Drori, Israel; Sheaffer, Zachary; Weber, Yaakov; Landau, Dana

    2009-01-01

    This paper provides new insights into the nature of alignment and misalignment through a study of FertilChem, an Israeli multinational corporation. This paper also contributes to the growing body of research that disputes the tendency to use the alignment model as the single best way of guiding

  20. A three-dimensional model to assess the effect of ankle joint axis misalignments in ankle-foot orthoses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fatone, Stefania; Johnson, William Brett; Tucker, Kerice

    2016-04-01

    Misalignment of an articulated ankle-foot orthosis joint axis with the anatomic joint axis may lead to discomfort, alterations in gait, and tissue damage. Theoretical, two-dimensional models describe the consequences of misalignments, but cannot capture the three-dimensional behavior of ankle-foot orthosis use. The purpose of this project was to develop a model to describe the effects of ankle-foot orthosis ankle joint misalignment in three dimensions. Computational simulation. Three-dimensional scans of a leg and ankle-foot orthosis were incorporated into a link segment model where the ankle-foot orthosis joint axis could be misaligned with the anatomic ankle joint axis. The leg/ankle-foot orthosis interface was modeled as a network of nodes connected by springs to estimate interface pressure. Motion between the leg and ankle-foot orthosis was calculated as the ankle joint moved through a gait cycle. While the three-dimensional model corroborated predictions of the previously published two-dimensional model that misalignments in the anterior -posterior direction would result in greater relative motion compared to misalignments in the proximal -distal direction, it provided greater insight showing that misalignments have asymmetrical effects. The three-dimensional model has been incorporated into a freely available computer program to assist others in understanding the consequences of joint misalignments. Models and simulations can be used to gain insight into functioning of systems of interest. We have developed a three-dimensional model to assess the effect of ankle joint axis misalignments in ankle-foot orthoses. The model has been incorporated into a freely available computer program to assist understanding of trainees and others interested in orthotics. © The International Society for Prosthetics and Orthotics 2014.

  1. Measuring real exchange rate misalignment in Croatia: cointegration approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irena Palić

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the paper is to analyze misalignment of the real exchange rate in Croatia. The misalignment analysis is conducted using the permanent equilibrium exchange rate approach. The equilibrium real exchange rate is computed using the cointegration approach whereby the real exchange rate and its fundamentals, namely terms of trade, net foreign assets and the ratio of prices of tradables to non-tradables are included in cointegration analysis. The Hodrick and Prescott filter is used to obtain permanent values of the equilibrium real exchange rate. The real exchange rate misalignment is computed as the deviation of the RER from its permanent equilibrium level. Four overvaluation periods and three undervaluation periods are recorded in Croatia in the observed period. Overvaluation periods are more often and of longer duration than undervaluation periods. However, the real exchange rate does not deviate largely from its estimated equilibrium value in the observed period, and it is neither overvalued nor undervalued constantly, but the periods alternate. Considering the results of the analysis, together with the empirical characteristics of Croatian economy, namely the high foreign currency indebtedness, highly euroized economy and underdeveloped export oriented sector, the depreciation of the real exchange rate is not recommended to economic policy makers and the current Croatian exchange rate policy is appropriate.

  2. RELATIVISTIC DOPPLER BEAMING AND MISALIGNMENTS IN AGN JETS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singal, Ashok K.

    2016-01-01

    Radio maps of active galactic nuclei often show linear features, called jets, on both parsec and kiloparsec scales. These jets supposedly possess relativistic motion and are oriented close to the line of sight of the observer, and accordingly the relativistic Doppler beaming makes them look much brighter than they really are in their respective rest frames. The flux boosting due to the relativistic beaming is a very sensitive function of the jet orientation angle, as seen by the observer. Sometimes, large bends are seen in these jets, with misalignments being 90° or more, which might imply a change in the orientation angle that should cause a large change in the relativistic beaming factor. Hence, if relativistic beaming does play an important role in these jets such large bends should usually show high contrast in the brightness of the jets before and after the bend. It needs to be kept in mind that sometimes a small intrinsic change in the jet angle might appear as a much larger misalignment due to the effects of geometrical projection, especially when seen close to the line of sight. What really matters are the initial and final orientation angles of the jet with respect to the observer’s line of sight. Taking the geometrical projection effects properly into account, we calculate the consequences of the presumed relativistic beaming and demonstrate that there ought to be large brightness ratios in jets before and after the observed misalignments.

  3. Relativistic Doppler Beaming and Misalignments in AGN Jets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singal, Ashok K.

    2016-08-01

    Radio maps of active galactic nuclei often show linear features, called jets, on both parsec and kiloparsec scales. These jets supposedly possess relativistic motion and are oriented close to the line of sight of the observer, and accordingly the relativistic Doppler beaming makes them look much brighter than they really are in their respective rest frames. The flux boosting due to the relativistic beaming is a very sensitive function of the jet orientation angle, as seen by the observer. Sometimes, large bends are seen in these jets, with misalignments being 90° or more, which might imply a change in the orientation angle that should cause a large change in the relativistic beaming factor. Hence, if relativistic beaming does play an important role in these jets such large bends should usually show high contrast in the brightness of the jets before and after the bend. It needs to be kept in mind that sometimes a small intrinsic change in the jet angle might appear as a much larger misalignment due to the effects of geometrical projection, especially when seen close to the line of sight. What really matters are the initial and final orientation angles of the jet with respect to the observer’s line of sight. Taking the geometrical projection effects properly into account, we calculate the consequences of the presumed relativistic beaming and demonstrate that there ought to be large brightness ratios in jets before and after the observed misalignments.

  4. Food scenarios 2025

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sundbo, Jon

    2016-01-01

    This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...... scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society...

  5. Coil Design for High Misalignment Tolerant Inductive Power Transfer System for EV Charging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kafeel Ahmed Kalwar

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The inductive power transfer (IPT system for electric vehicle (EV charging has acquired more research interest in its different facets. However, the misalignment tolerance between the charging coil (installed in the ground and pick-up coil (mounted on the car chassis, has been a challenge and fundamental interest in the future market of EVs. This paper proposes a new coil design QDQ (Quad D Quadrature that maintains the high coupling coefficient and efficient power transfer during reasonable misalignment. The QDQ design makes the use of four adjacent circular coils and one square coil, for both charging and pick-up side, to capture the maximum flux at any position. The coil design has been modeled in JMAG software for calculation of inductive parameters using the finite element method (FEM, and its hardware has been tested experimentally at various misaligned positions. The QDQ coils are shown to be capable of achieving good coupling coefficient and high efficiency of the system until the misalignment displacement reaches 50% of the employed coil size.

  6. Electrical conductance of carbon nanotubes with misaligned ends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pantano, Antonio, E-mail: antonio.pantano@unipa.it; Muratore, Giuseppe; Montinaro, Nicola [Universita degli Studi di Palermo, Dipartimento di Ingegneria Chimica, Gestionale, Informatica e Meccanica (Italy)

    2013-09-15

    During a manufacturing process, when a straight carbon nanotube is placed on a substrate, e.g., production of transistors, its two ends are often misaligned. In this study, we investigate the effects of multiwall carbon nanotubes' (MWCNTs) outer diameter and chirality on the change in conductance due to misalignment of the two ends. The length of the studied MWCNTs was 120 nm, while the diameters ranged between 4 and 7 nm. A mixed finite element-tight-binding approach was carefully designed to realize reduction in computational time by orders of magnitude in calculating the deformation-induced changes in the electrical transport properties of the nanotubes. Numerical results suggest that armchair MWCNTs of small diameter should work better if used as conductors, while zigzag MWCNTs of large diameter are more suitable for building sensors.Graphical Abstract.

  7. Systematic and non-systematic effects of the uncertainty of the sample position in gamma-ray spectrometry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vidmar, T.; Korun, M.

    2004-01-01

    When cylindrical samples placed coaxially with the detector are measured on a gamma-ray spectrometer, the position of the sample very often deviates from an ideal one with the axes of the sample and the detector less than perfectly aligned. If a calibrated source is used prior to the measurement and is presumed to have been positioned correctly, one might conclude that the misalignment of the measured sample should result in an uncertainty of the reported nuclide activity, since the efficiencies of the sample and the calibrated source are effectively different due to the difference in placement. The efficiency of a displaced cylindrical sample, however, is always lower than the one of a sample that is perfectly aligned. The net effect of misalignment can therefore be not only an increase in the uncertainty of the activity, but also a systematic error in its evaluation. Since the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement requires that all such systematic effects be corrected for, we have developed a method to assess the change in the efficiency resulting from misalignment and to introduce the required correction. The calculation of this correction only requires knowledge of basic sample and detector data. The uncertainty of the reported activity can then also be assessed and is influenced by the uncertainty of the efficiency evaluated around its new, corrected value. An appropriate expression for this uncertainty has been derived

  8. A beam-based alignment technique for correction of accelerator structure misalignments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kubo, K.; Raubenheimer, T.O.

    1994-08-01

    This paper describes a method of reducing the transverse emittance dilution in linear colliders due to transverse wakefields arising-from misaligned accelerator structures. The technique is a generalization of the Wake-Free correction algorithm. The structure alignment errors are measured locally by varying the bunch charge and/or bunch length and measuring the change in the beam trajectory. The misalignments can then be corrected by varying the beam trajectory or moving structures. The results of simulations are presented demonstrating the viability of the technique

  9. Feedforward correction of mirror misalignment fluctuations for the GEO 600 gravitational wave detector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, J R; Grote, H; Hewitson, M; Hild, S; Lueck, H; Parsons, M; Strain, K A; Willke, B

    2005-01-01

    The core instrument of the GEO 600 gravitational wave detector is a Michelson interferometer with folded arms. The five main optics that form this interferometer are suspended in vacuum by triple pendulums with quasi-monolithic lower stages of fused silica. After installation of these pendulums in early 2003, a larger than expected coupling of longitudinal ground motion to tilt misalignment of the suspended optics was observed. Because of this, the uncontrolled misalignment of the optics during average conditions was several μrad Hz -1/2 in the frequency band around the pendulum resonance frequencies (0.5-4 Hz). In addition, it was found that longitudinal control signals applied to the intermediate pendulum stages also resulted in excessive mirror tilt. The resulting misalignment exceeded the level tolerable for stable operation of GEO 600. In order to reduce the level of mirror tilt, a bipartite feedforward system was implemented. One part feeds signals derived from seismic measurements to piezo-electric crystals in the stacks supporting the suspensions, reducing the longitudinal motion of the uppermost suspension points. The other applies tilt correction signals, derived from longitudinal control signals, to the intermediate level of the suspensions. The seismic feedforward correction reduces the root-mean-squared tilt misalignment of each main optic between 0.1 and 5 Hz by about 10 dB, typically. The intermediate-mass feedforward correction reduces the differential tilt misalignment of the Michelson interferometer by about 10 dB between 0.1 and 0.8 Hz, typically

  10. A Method for SINS Alignment with Large Initial Misalignment Angles Based on Kalman Filter with Parameters Resetting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xixiang Liu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In the initial alignment process of strapdown inertial navigation system (SINS, large initial misalignment angles always bring nonlinear problem, which causes alignment failure when the classical linear error model and standard Kalman filter are used. In this paper, the problem of large misalignment angles in SINS initial alignment is investigated, and the key reason for alignment failure is given as the state covariance from Kalman filter cannot represent the true one during the steady filtering process. According to the analysis, an alignment method for SINS based on multiresetting the state covariance matrix of Kalman filter is designed to deal with large initial misalignment angles, in which classical linear error model and standard Kalman filter are used, but the state covariance matrix should be multireset before the steady process until large misalignment angles are decreased to small ones. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated by simulation and car test, and the results indicate that the proposed method can fulfill initial alignment with large misalignment angles effectively and the alignment accuracy of the proposed method is as precise as that of alignment with small misalignment angles.

  11. Misaligned Co-Production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vedel, Jane Bjørn; Irwin, Alan

    of ‘misaligned co-production’ gives new insight into how academic and industrial researchers collaborate without smoothing out differences. We explore the advantages of this framework based on case examples of academic-industry collaborations from a field study in a Danish pharmaceutical company.......As many authors have noted, contemporary research can be characterized by a number of hybrid relations between researchers based in a variety of different organizations, both within and outside the university. Whilst historians might argue that there is very little new in the existence of academic......-industrial inter-connections within scientific research, there is still a tendency – in research publications but also in the statements of policy-makers – to present ‘academic’ and ‘industrial’ research as if they occupied fundamentally different realms. In this paper, we propose and discuss a framework...

  12. The effect, identification and correction of misalignment between PET transmission and emission scans on brain PET imaging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Xiangsong; He Zuoxiang; Tang Anwu; Qiao Suixian

    2004-01-01

    Objectives: To study the effect of misalignment between PET transmission and emission scans of brain on brain PET imaging, and the Methods to identify and correct it. Methods: 18F-FDG PET imaging was performed on 8 volunteers. The emission images were reconstructed with attenuation correction after some translations and rotations in the x-axis and transverse plane were given, 1 mm and 1 degree each step, respectively. The 3-D volume fusion of PET emission and transmission scans was used to identify the suspected misalignment on 10 18F-FDG PET brain imaging. Three Methods were used to correct the misalignment. First, to quantitate the amount of the misalignment by 3-D volume registration of PET emission and transmission scans, the emission images were reconstructed with corrected translations and rotations in x-direction and transverse plane. Second, the emission images were reconstructed with mathematic calculation of brain attenuation. Third, 18F-FDG PET brain imaging was redone with careful application of laser alignment. Results: The translations greater than 3 mm in x-direction and the rotations greater than 8 degrees in transverse plane could lead to visible artifacts, which were presented with decreasing radioactivity uptake in the cortex of half cerebrum and in the frontal cortex at the side in the translating or rotating direction, respectively. The 3-D volume fusion of PET emission and transmission scans could identify and quantitate the amount of misalignment between PET emission and transmission scans of brain. The PET emission images reconstructed with corrected misalignment and mathematic calculation of brain attenuation were consistent with redone PET brain imaging. Conclusions: The misalignment between PET transmission and emission scans of brain can lead to visible artifacts. The 3-D volume fusion of PET emission and transmission scans can identify and quantitate the amount of the misalignment. The visible artifacts caused by the misalignment can be

  13. A systematic methodology to extend the applicability of a bioconversion model for the simulation of various co-digestion scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kovalovszki, Adam; Alvarado-Morales, Merlin; Fotidis, Ioannis

    2017-01-01

    Detailed simulation of anaerobic digestion (AD) requires complex mathematical models and the optimization of numerous model parameters. By performing a systematic methodology and identifying parameters with the highest impact on process variables in a well-established AD model, its applicability...... was extended to various co-digestion scenarios. More specifically, the application of the step-by-step methodology led to the estimation of a general and reduced set of parameters, for the simulation of scenarios where either manure or wastewater were co-digested with different organic substrates. Validation...... experimental data quite well, indicating that it offers a reliable reference point for future simulations of anaerobic co-digestion scenarios....

  14. Beam determination of quadrupole misalignments and beam position monitor biases in the SLC linac

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lavine, T.L.; Seeman, J.T.; Atwood, W.B.; Himel, T.M.; Petersen, A.; Adolphsen, C.E.

    1988-09-01

    Misalignments of magnetic quadrupoles and biases in beam position monitors (BPMs) in the Stanford Linear Collider (SLC) linac can lead to a situation in which the beam is off-center in the disk-loaded waveguide accelerator structure. The off-center beam produces wakefields which can limit SLC performance by causing unacceptably large emittance growth. We present a general method for determining quadrupole misalignments and BPM biases in the SLC linac by using beam trajectory measurements. The method utilizes both electron and positron beams on opposite rf cycles in the same linac lattice to determine simultaneously magnetic quadrupole misalignments and BPM biases. The two-beam trajectory data may be acquired without interrupting SLC colliding beam operations. 2 refs., 5 figs

  15. Random Walk Model for Cell-To-Cell Misalignments in Accelerator Structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stupakov, Gennady

    2000-01-01

    Due to manufacturing and construction errors, cells in accelerator structures can be misaligned relative to each other. As a consequence, the beam generates a transverse wakefield even when it passes through the structure on axis. The most important effect is the long-range transverse wakefield that deflects the bunches and causes growth of the bunch train projected emittance. In this paper, the effect of the cell-to-cell misalignments is evaluated using a random walk model that assumes that each cell is shifted by a random step relative to the previous one. The model is compared with measurements of a few accelerator structures

  16. Influence of chamber misalignment on cased telescoped (CT ammunition accuracy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Corriveau

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available As part of a research program, it was desired to better understand the impact of the rotating chamber alignment with the barrel throat on the precision and accuracy of a novel cased telescoped (CT ammunition firing rifle. In order to perform the study, a baseline CT ammunition chamber which was concentric with a Mann barrel bore was manufactured. Additionally, six chambers were manufactured with an offset relative to the barrel bore. These chambers were used to simulate a misaligned chamber relative to the bore axis. Precision and accuracy tests were then performed at 200 m in an indoor range under controlled conditions. For this project, 5.56 mm CT ammunition was used. As the chamber axis offset relative to the gun bore was increased, the mean point of impact was displaced away from the target center. The shift in the impact location is explained by the presence of in-bore yaw which results in lateral throw-off and aerodynamic jump components. The linear theory of ballistics is used to establish a relationship between the chamber misalignment and the resulting projectile mean point of impact for a rifle developed to fire CT ammunition. This relationship allows for the prediction of the mean point of impact given a chamber misalignment.

  17. Correcting systematic errors in high-sensitivity deuteron polarization measurements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brantjes, N. P. M.; Dzordzhadze, V.; Gebel, R.; Gonnella, F.; Gray, F. E.; van der Hoek, D. J.; Imig, A.; Kruithof, W. L.; Lazarus, D. M.; Lehrach, A.; Lorentz, B.; Messi, R.; Moricciani, D.; Morse, W. M.; Noid, G. A.; Onderwater, C. J. G.; Ozben, C. S.; Prasuhn, D.; Sandri, P. Levi; Semertzidis, Y. K.; da Silva e Silva, M.; Stephenson, E. J.; Stockhorst, H.; Venanzoni, G.; Versolato, O. O.

    2012-01-01

    This paper reports deuteron vector and tensor beam polarization measurements taken to investigate the systematic variations due to geometric beam misalignments and high data rates. The experiments used the In-Beam Polarimeter at the KVI-Groningen and the EDDA detector at the Cooler Synchrotron COSY

  18. Simultaneous misalignment correction for approximate circular cone-beam computed tomography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kyriakou, Y; Hillebrand, L; Ertel, D; Kalender, W A; Lapp, R M

    2008-01-01

    Currently, CT scanning is often performed using flat detectors which are mounted on C-arm units or dedicated gantries as in radiation therapy or micro CT. For perspective cone-beam backprojection of the Feldkamp type (FDK) the geometry of an approximately circular scan trajectory has to be available for reconstruction. If the system or the scan geometry is afflicted with geometrical instabilities, referred to as misalignment, a non-perfect approximate circular scan is the case. Reconstructing a misaligned scan without knowledge of the true trajectory results in severe artefacts in the CT images. Unlike current methods which use a pre-scan calibration of the geometry for defined scan protocols and calibration phantoms, we propose a real-time iterative restoration of reconstruction geometry by means of entropy minimization. Entropy minimization is performed combining a simplex algorithm for multi-parameter optimization and iterative graphics card (GPU)-based FDK-reconstructions. Images reconstructed with the misaligned geometry were used as an input for the entropy minimization algorithm. A simplex algorithm changes the geometrical parameters of the source and detector with respect to the reduction of entropy. In order to reduce the size of the high-dimensional space required for minimization, the trajectory was described by only eight fix points. A virtual trajectory is generated for each iteration using a least-mean-squares algorithm to calculate an approximately circular path including these points. Entropy was minimal for the ideal dataset, whereas strong misalignment resulted in a higher entropy value. For the datasets used in this study, the simplex algorithm required 64-200 iterations to achieve an entropy value equivalent to the ideal dataset, depending on the grade of misalignment using random initialization conditions. The use of the GPU reduced the time per iteration as compared to a quad core CPU-based backprojection by a factor of 10 resulting in a total

  19. In Search for a Measure of Currency Misalignment: the Case of the 1997 Asian Currency Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daekeun Park

    2000-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper searches for an appropriate measure of currency misalignment in light of the 1997 Asian currency crisis. A couple of measures of currency misalignment, one based on purchasing power parity and the other based on equilibrium real exchange rate that is consistent with internal and external equilibrium are used to estimate the degree of currency misalignment for Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand before the 1997 currency crisis. The paper finds that the purchasing power parity based methods show that the Asian currencies were not significantly overvalued on the eve of the crisis. On the other hand, measures based on the equilibrium real exchange rate concept demonstrate that the Asian currencies were significantly overvalued. In consequence, the equilibrium real exchange rate based method seems to be a useful candidate for a measure of currency misalignment.

  20. Misaligned Accretion and Jet Production

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Andrew; Nixon, Chris

    2018-04-01

    Disk accretion onto a black hole is often misaligned from its spin axis. If the disk maintains a significant magnetic field normal to its local plane, we show that dipole radiation from Lense–Thirring precessing disk annuli can extract a significant fraction of the accretion energy, sharply peaked toward small disk radii R (as R ‑17/2 for fields with constant equipartition ratio). This low-frequency emission is immediately absorbed by surrounding matter or refracted toward the regions of lowest density. The resultant mechanical pressure, dipole angular pattern, and much lower matter density toward the rotational poles create a strong tendency to drive jets along the black hole spin axis, similar to the spin-axis jets of radio pulsars, also strong dipole emitters. The coherent primary emission may explain the high brightness temperatures seen in jets. The intrinsic disk emission is modulated at Lense–Thirring frequencies near the inner edge, providing a physical mechanism for low-frequency quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs). Dipole emission requires nonzero hole spin, but uses only disk accretion energy. No spin energy is extracted, unlike the Blandford–Znajek process. Magnetohydrodynamic/general-relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (MHD/GRMHD) formulations do not directly give radiation fields, but can be checked post-process for dipole emission and therefore self-consistency, given sufficient resolution. Jets driven by dipole radiation should be more common in active galactic nuclei (AGN) than in X-ray binaries, and in low accretion-rate states than high, agreeing with observation. In non-black hole accretion, misaligned disk annuli precess because of the accretor’s mass quadrupole moment, similarly producing jets and QPOs.

  1. Misalignment sensitivity in an intra-cavity coherently combined crossed-Porro resonator configuration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alperovich, Z.; Buchinsky, O.; Greenstein, S.; Ishaaya, A. A.

    2017-08-01

    We investigate the misalignment sensitivity in a crossed-Porro resonator configuration when coherently combining two pulsed multimode Nd:YAG laser channels. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first reported study of this configuration. The configuration is based on a passive intra-cavity interferometric combiner that promotes self-phase locking and coherent combining. Detailed misalignment sensitivity measurements are presented, examining both translation and angular deviations of the end prisms and combiner, and are compared to the results for standard flat end-mirror configurations. The results show that the most sensitive parameter in the crossed-Porro resonator configuration is the angular tuning of the intra-cavity interferometric combiner, which is ~±54 µrad. In comparison, with the flat end mirror configuration, the most sensitive parameter in the resonator is the angular tuning of the output coupler, which is ~±11 µrad. Thus, with the crossed-Porro configuration, we obtain significantly reduced sensitivity. This ability to reduce the misalignment sensitivity in coherently combined solid-state configurations may be beneficial in paving their way into practical use in a variety of demanding applications.

  2. Projecting Future Heat-Related Mortality under Climate Change Scenarios: A Systematic Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnett, Adrian Gerard; Wang, Xiaoming; Vaneckova, Pavla; FitzGerald, Gerard; Tong, Shilu

    2011-01-01

    Background: Heat-related mortality is a matter of great public health concern, especially in the light of climate change. Although many studies have found associations between high temperatures and mortality, more research is needed to project the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. Objectives: We conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios. Data sources and extraction: A literature search was conducted in August 2010, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 through July 2010. Data synthesis: Fourteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most projections showed that climate change would result in a substantial increase in heat-related mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding historical temperature–mortality relationships and considering the future changes in climate, population, and acclimatization. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution, and mortality displacement. Conclusions: Scenario-based projection research will meaningfully contribute to assessing and managing the potential impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. PMID:21816703

  3. Strabismus genetics across a spectrum of eye misalignment disorders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, XC; Pegado, V; Patel, MS; Wasserman, WW

    2014-01-01

    Eye misalignment, called strabismus, is amongst the most common phenotypes observed, occurring in up to 5% of individuals in a studied population. While misalignment is frequently observed in rare complex syndromes, the majority of strabismus cases are non-syndromic. Over the past decade, genes and pathways associated with syndromic forms of strabismus have emerged, but the genes contributing to non-syndromic strabismus remain elusive. Genetic testing for strabismus risk may allow for earlier diagnosis and treatment, as well as decreased frequency of surgery. We review human and model organism literature describing non-syndromic strabismus, including family, twin, linkage, and gene expression studies. Recent advances in the genetics of Duane retraction syndrome are considered, as relatives of those impacted show elevated familial rates of non-syndromic strabismus. As whole genome sequencing efforts are advancing for the discovery of the elusive strabismus genes, this overview is intended to support the interpretation of the new findings. PMID:24579652

  4. Texture zeros and hierarchical masses from flavour (mis)alignment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollik, W. G.; Saldana-Salazar, U. J.

    2018-03-01

    We introduce an unconventional interpretation of the fermion mass matrix elements. As the full rotational freedom of the gauge-kinetic terms renders a set of infinite bases called weak bases, basis-dependent structures as mass matrices are unphysical. Matrix invariants, on the other hand, provide a set of basis-independent objects which are of more relevance. We employ one of these invariants to give a new parametrisation of the mass matrices. By virtue of it, one gains control over its implicit implications on several mass matrix structures. The key element is the trace invariant which resembles the equation of a hypersphere with a radius equal to the Frobenius norm of the mass matrix. With the concepts of alignment or misalignment we can identify texture zeros with certain alignments whereas Froggatt-Nielsen structures in the matrix elements are governed by misalignment. This method allows further insights of traditional approaches to the underlying flavour geometry.

  5. Misalignment with the external light environment drives metabolic and cardiac dysfunction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Alexander C; Smith, Laura; Ray, David W; Loudon, Andrew S I; Brown, Timothy M; Bechtold, David A

    2017-09-12

    Most organisms use internal biological clocks to match behavioural and physiological processes to specific phases of the day-night cycle. Central to this is the synchronisation of internal processes across multiple organ systems. Environmental desynchrony (e.g. shift work) profoundly impacts human health, increasing cardiovascular disease and diabetes risk, yet the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Here, we characterise the impact of desynchrony between the internal clock and the external light-dark (LD) cycle on mammalian physiology. We reveal that even under stable LD environments, phase misalignment has a profound effect, with decreased metabolic efficiency and disrupted cardiac function including prolonged QT interval duration. Importantly, physiological dysfunction is not driven by disrupted core clock function, nor by an internal desynchrony between organs, but rather the altered phase relationship between the internal clockwork and the external environment. We suggest phase misalignment as a major driver of pathologies associated with shift work, chronotype and social jetlag.The misalignment between internal circadian rhythm and the day-night cycle can be caused by genetic, behavioural and environmental factors, and may have a profound impact on human physiology. Here West et al. show that desynchrony between the internal clock and the external environment alter metabolic parameters and cardiac function in mice.

  6. Influence of misalignments on the performance of externally occulted solar coronagraphs. Application to PROBA-3/ASPIICS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shestov, S. V.; Zhukov, A. N.

    2018-05-01

    Context. The ASPIICS instrument is a novel externally occulted coronagraph that will be launched on board the PROBA-3 mission of the European Space Agency. The external occulter will be placed on one satellite 150 m ahead of the second satellite that will carry an optical instrument. During 6 h out of 19.38 h of orbit, the satellites will fly in a precise (accuracy around a few millimeters) formation, constituting a giant externally occulted coronagraph. The large distance between the external occulter and the primary objective will allow observations of the white-light solar corona starting from extremely low heights 1.1R⊙. Aims: We intend to analyze influence of shifts of the satellites and misalignments of optical elements on the ASPIICS performance in terms of diffracted light. Based on the quantitative influence of misalignments on diffracted light, we provide a recipe for choosing the size of the internal occulter (IO) to achieve a trade-off between the minimal height of observations and sustainability to possible misalignments. Methods: We considered different types of misalignments and analyzed their influence from optical and computational points of view. We implemented a numerical model of the diffracted light and its propagation through the optical system and computed intensities of diffracted light throughout the instrument. Our numerical approach is based on a model from the literature that considered the axisymmetrical case. Here we extend the model to include nonsymmetrical cases and possible misalignments. Results: The numerical computations fully confirm the main properties of the diffracted light that we obtained from semi-analytical consideration. We obtain that relative influences of various misalignments are significantly different. We show that the internal occulter with RIO = 1.694 mm = 1.1R⊙ is large enough to compensate possible misalignments expected to occur in PROBA-3/ASPIICS. Besides that we show that apodizing the edge of the

  7. Exchange rates and individual good's price misalignment: Some preliminary evidence of long-horizon predictability

    OpenAIRE

    Dong, Wei; Nam, Deokwoo

    2011-01-01

    When prices are sticky, movements in the nominal exchange rate have a direct impact on international relative prices. A relative price misalignment would trigger an adjustment in consumption and employment, and may help to predict future movements in the exchange rate. Although purchasing-power-parity fundamentals, in general, have only weak predictability, currency misalignment may be indicated by price differentials for some goods, which could then have predictive power for subsequent re-ev...

  8. Corruption of pharmaceutical markets: addressing the misalignment of financial incentives and public health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gagnon, Marc-André

    2013-01-01

    This paper explains how the current architecture of the pharmaceutical markets has created a misalignment of financial incentives and public health that is a central cause of harmful practices. It explores three possible solutions to address that misalignment: taxes, increased financial penalties, and drug pricing based on value. Each proposal could help to partly realign financial incentives and public health. However, because of the limits of each proposal, there is no easy solution to fixing the problem of financial incentives. © 2013 American Society of Law, Medicine & Ethics, Inc.

  9. Mismatch and misalignment: dark haloes and satellites of disc galaxies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deason, A. J.; McCarthy, I. G.; Font, A. S.; Evans, N. W.; Frenk, C. S.; Belokurov, V.; Libeskind, N. I.; Crain, R. A.; Theuns, T.

    2011-08-01

    We study the phase-space distribution of satellite galaxies associated with late-type galaxies in the GIMIC suite of simulations. GIMIC consists of resimulations of five cosmologically representative regions from the Millennium Simulation, which have higher resolution and incorporate baryonic physics. Whilst the disc of the galaxy is well aligned with the inner regions (r˜ 0.1r200) of the dark matter halo, both in shape and angular momentum, there can be substantial misalignments at larger radii (r˜r200). Misalignments of >45° are seen in ˜30 per cent of our sample. We find that the satellite population aligns with the shape (and angular momentum) of the outer dark matter halo. However, the alignment with the galaxy is weak owing to the mismatch between the disc and dark matter halo. Roughly 20 per cent of the satellite systems with 10 bright galaxies within r200 exhibit a polar spatial alignment with respect to the galaxy - an orientation reminiscent of the classical satellites of the Milky Way. We find that a small fraction (˜10 per cent) of satellite systems show evidence for rotational support which we attribute to group infall. There is a bias towards satellites on prograde orbits relative to the spin of the dark matter halo (and to a lesser extent with the angular momentum of the disc). This preference towards co-rotation is stronger in the inner regions of the halo where the most massive satellites accreted at relatively early times are located. We attribute the anisotropic spatial distribution and angular momentum bias of the satellites at z= 0 to their directional accretion along the major axes of the dark matter halo. The satellite galaxies have been accreted relatively recently compared to the dark matter mass and have experienced less phase-mixing and relaxation - the memory of their accretion history can remain intact to z= 0. Understanding the phase-space distribution of the z= 0 satellite population is key for studies that estimate the host halo

  10. Misalignment Effect Function Measurement for Oblique Rotation Axes: Counterintuitive Predictions and Theoretical Extensions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Stephen R.; Adelstein, Bernard D.; Yeom, Kiwon

    2013-01-01

    The Misalignment Effect Function (MEF) describes the decrement in manual performance associated with a rotation between operators' visual display frame of reference and that of their manual control. It now has been empirically determined for rotation axes oblique to canonical body axes and is compared with the MEF previously measured for rotations about canonical axes. A targeting rule, called the Secant Rule, based on these earlier measurements is derived from a hypothetical process and shown to describe some of the data from three previous experiments. It explains the motion trajectories determined for rotations less than 65deg in purely kinematic terms without the need to appeal to a mental rotation process. Further analysis of this rule in three dimensions applied to oblique rotation axes leads to a somewhat surprising expectation that the difficulty posed by rotational misalignment should get harder as the required movement is shorter. This prediction is confirmed. Geometry underlying this rule also suggests analytic extensions for predicting more generally the difficulty of making movements in arbitrary directions subject to arbitrary misalignments.

  11. Bit Error Rate Due to Misalignment of Earth Station Antenna Pointing to Satellite

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wahyu Pamungkas

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available One problem causing reduction of energy in satellite communications system is the misalignment of earth station antenna pointing to satellite. Error in pointing would affect the quality of information signal to energy bit in earth station. In this research, error in pointing angle occurred only at receiver (Rx antenna, while the transmitter (Tx antennas precisely point to satellite. The research was conducted towards two satellites, namely TELKOM-1 and TELKOM-2. At first, measurement was made by directing Tx antenna precisely to satellite, resulting in an antenna pattern shown by spectrum analyzer. The output from spectrum analyzers is drawn with the right scale to describe swift of azimuth and elevation pointing angle towards satellite. Due to drifting from the precise pointing, it influenced the received link budget indicated by pattern antenna. This antenna pattern shows reduction of power level received as a result of pointing misalignment. As a conclusion, the increasing misalignment of pointing to satellite would affect in the reduction of received signal parameters link budget of down-link traffic.

  12. MISALIGNED DISKS AS OBSCURERS IN ACTIVE GALAXIES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lawrence, Andy; Elvis, Martin

    2010-01-01

    We critically review the evidence concerning the fraction of active galactic nuclei (AGNs) that appear as Type 2 AGNs, carefully distinguishing strict Type 2 AGNs from both more lightly reddened Type 1 AGNs, and from low excitation narrow line AGNs, which may represent a different mode of activity. Low-excitation AGNs occur predominantly at low luminosities; after removing these, true Type 2 AGNs represent 58% ± 5% of all AGNs, and lightly reddened Type 1 AGNs a further ∼15%. Radio, IR, and volume-limited samples all agree in showing no change of Type 2 fraction with luminosity. X-ray samples do show a change with luminosity; we discuss possible reasons for this discrepancy. We test a very simple picture which produces this Type 2 fraction with minimal assumptions. In this picture, infall from large scales occurs in random directions, but must eventually align with the inner accretion flow, producing a severely warped disk on parsec scales. If the re-alignment is dominated by tilt, with minimal twist, a wide range of covering factors is predicted in individual objects, but with an expected mean fraction of Type 2 AGNs of exactly 50%. This 'tilted disk' picture predicts reasonable alignment of observed nuclear structures on average, but with distinct misalignments in individual cases. Initial case studies of the few well-resolved objects show that such misalignments are indeed present.

  13. Pathogenetics of alveolar capillary dysplasia with misalignment of pulmonary veins

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Szafranski, P.; Gambin, T.; Dharmadhikari, A.V.; Akdemir, K.C.; Jhangiani, S.N.; Schuette, J.; Godiwala, N.; Yatsenko, S.A.; Sebastian, J.; Madan-Khetarpal, S.; Surti, U.; Abellar, R.G.; Bateman, D.A.; Wilson, A.L.; Markham, M.H.; Slamon, J.; Santos-Simarro, F.; Palomares, M.; Nevado, J.; Lapunzina, P.; Chung, B.H.; Wong, W.L.; Chu, Y.W.; Mok, G.T.; Kerem, E.; Reiter, J.; Ambalavanan, N.; Anderson, S.A.; Kelly, D.R.; Shieh, J.; Rosenthal, T.C.; Scheible, K.; Steiner, L.; Iqbal, M.A.; McKinnon, M.L.; Hamilton, S.J.; Schlade-Bartusiak, K.; English, D.; Hendson, G.; Roeder, E.R.; DeNapoli, T.S.; Littlejohn, R.O.; Wolff, D.J.; Wagner, C.L.; Yeung, A.; Francis, D.; Fiorino, E.K.; Edelman, M.; Fox, J.; Hayes, D.A.; Janssens, S.; Baere, E. De; Menten, B.; Loccufier, A.; Vanwalleghem, L.; Moerman, P.; Sznajer, Y.; Lay, A.S.; Kussmann, J.L.; Chawla, J.; Payton, D.J.; Phillips, G.E.; Brosens, E.; Tibboel, D.; Klein, A.; Maystadt, I.; Fisher, R.; Sebire, N.; Male, A.; Chopra, M.; Pinner, J.; Malcolm, G.; Peters, G.; Arbuckle, S.; Lees, M.; Mead, Z.; Quarrell, O.; Sayers, R.; Owens, M.; Shaw-Smith, C.; Lioy, J.; McKay, E.; Leeuw, N. de; Feenstra, I.; Spruijt, L.; Elmslie, F.; Thiruchelvam, T.; Bacino, C.A.; Langston, C.; Lupski, J.R.; Sen, P.; Popek, E.; Stankiewicz, P.

    2016-01-01

    Alveolar capillary dysplasia with misalignment of pulmonary veins (ACDMPV) is a lethal lung developmental disorder caused by heterozygous point mutations or genomic deletion copy-number variants (CNVs) of FOXF1 or its upstream enhancer involving fetal lung-expressed long noncoding RNA genes

  14. Vibration characteristics of a hydraulic generator unit rotor system with parallel misalignment and rub-impact

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huang, Zhiwei; Zhou, Jianzhong; Yang, Mengqi; Zhang, Yongchuan [Huazhong University of Science and Technology, College of Hydraulic and Digitalization Engineering, Wuhan, Hubei Province (China)

    2011-07-15

    The object of this research aims at the hydraulic generator unit rotor system. According to fault problems of the generator rotor local rubbing caused by the parallel misalignment and mass eccentricity, a dynamic model for the rotor system coupled with misalignment and rub-impact is established. The dynamic behaviors of this system are investigated using numerical integral method, as the parallel misalignment, mass eccentricity and bearing stiffness vary. The nonlinear dynamic responses of the generator rotor and turbine rotor with coupling faults are analyzed by means of bifurcation diagrams, Poincare maps, axis orbits, time histories and amplitude spectrum diagrams. Various nonlinear phenomena in the system, such as periodic, three-periodic and quasi-periodic motions, are studied with the change of the parallel misalignment. The results reveal that vibration characteristics of the rotor system with coupling faults are extremely complex and there are some low frequencies with large amplitude in the 0.3-0.4 x components. As the increase in mass eccentricity, the interval of nonperiodic motions will be continuously moved forward. It suggests that the reduction in mass eccentricity or increase in bearing stiffness could preclude nonlinear vibration. These might provide some important theory references for safety operating and exact identification of the faults in rotating machinery. (orig.)

  15. Obtaining the Wakefield Due to Cell-to-Cell Misalignments in a Linear Accelerator Structure

    OpenAIRE

    Bane, Karl L. F.; Li, Zenghai

    2001-01-01

    A linear accelerator structure, such as will be used in the linacs of the JLC/NLC collider, is composed of on the order of 100 cells. The cells are constructed as individual cups that are brazed together to form a structure. Fabrication error will result in slight cell-to-cell misalignments along the finished structure. In this report we derive an approximation to the transverse wakefield of a structure with cell-to-cell misalignments in terms of the eigenfunctions and eigenvalues of the erro...

  16. A planar model study of creep in metal matrix composites with misaligned short fibres

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, N.J.

    1993-01-01

    The effect of fibre misalignment on the creep behaviour of metal matrix composites is modelled, including hardening behaviour (stage 1), dynamic recovery and steady state creep (stage 2) of the matrix material, using an internal variable constitutive model for the creep behaviour of the metal...... matrix. Numerical plane strain results in terms of average properties and detailed local deformation behaviour up to large strains are needed to show effects of fibre misalignment on the development of inelastic strains and the resulting over-all creep resistance of the material. The creep resistance...

  17. Finite element analysis of misaligned rotors on oil-film bearings

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    (cylindrical, pocket, symmetrical three-lobed, unsymmetrical three-lobed). As a first step, the ... Yu & Adams (1989) discussed .... From the static load-deflection curve for a value of Sommerfeld number one finds out the ..... Sekhar A S, Prabhu B S 1995 Effects of coupling misalignment on vibrations of rotating machinery.

  18. Spin-Orbit Misalignments of Three Jovian Planets via Doppler Tomography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Marshall C.; Cochran, William D.; Addison, Brett C.; Tinney, Chris G.; Wright, Duncan J.

    2017-10-01

    We present measurements of the spin-orbit misalignments of the hot Jupiters HAT-P-41 b and WASP-79 b, and the aligned warm Jupiter Kepler-448 b. We obtain these measurements with Doppler tomography, where we spectroscopically resolve the line profile perturbation during the transit due to the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect. We analyze time series spectra obtained during portions of five transits of HAT-P-41 b, and find a value of the spin-orbit misalignment of λ =-{22.1}-6.0{+0.8^\\circ }. We reanalyze the radial velocity Rossiter-McLaughlin data on WASP-79 b obtained by Addison et al. using Doppler tomographic methodology. We measure λ =-{99.1}-3.9{+4.1^\\circ }, consistent with but more precise than the value found by Addison et al. For Kepler-448 b we perform a joint fit to the Kepler light curve, Doppler tomographic data, and a radial velocity data set from Lillo-Box et al. We find an approximately aligned orbit (λ =-{7.1}-2.8{+4.2^\\circ }), in agreement with the value found by Bourrier et al. Through analysis of the Kepler light curve we measure a stellar rotation period of {P}{rot}=1.27+/- 0.11 days, and use this to argue that the full three-dimensional spin-orbit misalignment is small, \\psi ˜ 0^\\circ . Based in part on observations obtained with the Hobby-Eberly Telescope, which is a joint project of the University of Texas at Austin, the Pennsylvania State University, Stanford University, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, and Georg-August-Universität Göttingen.

  19. Feedback loops and temporal misalignment in component-based hydrologic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elag, Mostafa M.; Goodall, Jonathan L.; Castronova, Anthony M.

    2011-12-01

    In component-based modeling, a complex system is represented as a series of loosely integrated components with defined interfaces and data exchanges that allow the components to be coupled together through shared boundary conditions. Although the component-based paradigm is commonly used in software engineering, it has only recently been applied for modeling hydrologic and earth systems. As a result, research is needed to test and verify the applicability of the approach for modeling hydrologic systems. The objective of this work was therefore to investigate two aspects of using component-based software architecture for hydrologic modeling: (1) simulation of feedback loops between components that share a boundary condition and (2) data transfers between temporally misaligned model components. We investigated these topics using a simple case study where diffusion of mass is modeled across a water-sediment interface. We simulated the multimedia system using two model components, one for the water and one for the sediment, coupled using the Open Modeling Interface (OpenMI) standard. The results were compared with a more conventional numerical approach for solving the system where the domain is represented by a single multidimensional array. Results showed that the component-based approach was able to produce the same results obtained with the more conventional numerical approach. When the two components were temporally misaligned, we explored the use of different interpolation schemes to minimize mass balance error within the coupled system. The outcome of this work provides evidence that component-based modeling can be used to simulate complicated feedback loops between systems and guidance as to how different interpolation schemes minimize mass balance error introduced when components are temporally misaligned.

  20. Influence of misaligned parents’ aspirations on long-term student academic performance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Boer, Hester; van der Werf, Margaretha P.C.

    2015-01-01

    This article deals with the concept of misaligned parents’ aspirations, its relationship with student background characteristics, and its effects on long-term student performance. It is defined as the difference between parents’ educational ambitions for their child and the child's actual

  1. Development of scenarios for emergency exercises and the systematic evaluation of the results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schmidtborn, I.; Playfair, A. [Colenco Power Consulting AG, Baden (Switzerland)

    2001-07-01

    This paper describes a systematic method for preparing emergency exercises for the training of power station personnel in the establishment of internal and external communications and the initiation of emergency measures in the case of beyond design basis accidents. The exercises are planned over a period of time in such a way that a wide range of scenarios are covered, keeping repetition to a minimum and the work for preparing the individual exercises is reduced as far as possible. To give an idea of the variety of exercises that can be developed using this method, a selection of the exercise titles that have been used by Colenco over the past 10 years is given. A great deal of importance has to be attached to the evaluation of the exercises.

  2. Development of scenarios for emergency exercises and the systematic evaluation of the results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmidtborn, I.; Playfair, A.

    2001-01-01

    This paper describes a systematic method for preparing emergency exercises for the training of power station personnel in the establishment of internal and external communications and the initiation of emergency measures in the case of beyond design basis accidents. The exercises are planned over a period of time in such a way that a wide range of scenarios are covered, keeping repetition to a minimum and the work for preparing the individual exercises is reduced as far as possible. To give an idea of the variety of exercises that can be developed using this method, a selection of the exercise titles that have been used by Colenco over the past 10 years is given. A great deal of importance has to be attached to the evaluation of the exercises

  3. A new computerized diagnostic algorithm for quantitative evaluation of binocular misalignment in patients with strabismus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nam, Kyoung Won; Kim, In Young; Kang, Ho Chul; Yang, Hee Kyung; Yoon, Chang Ki; Hwang, Jeong Min; Kim, Young Jae; Kim, Tae Yun; Kim, Kwang Gi

    2012-10-01

    Accurate measurement of binocular misalignment between both eyes is important for proper preoperative management, surgical planning, and postoperative evaluation of patients with strabismus. In this study, we proposed a new computerized diagnostic algorithm that can calculate the angle of binocular eye misalignment photographically by using a dedicated three-dimensional eye model mimicking the structure of the natural human eye. To evaluate the performance of the proposed algorithm, eight healthy volunteers and eight individuals with strabismus were recruited in this study, the horizontal deviation angle, vertical deviation angle, and angle of eye misalignment were calculated and the angular differences between the healthy and the strabismus groups were evaluated using the nonparametric Mann-Whitney test and the Pearson correlation test. The experimental results demonstrated a statistically significant difference between the healthy and strabismus groups (p = 0.015 0.05). The measurements of the two methods were highly correlated (r = 0.969, p human eye to diagnose non-invasively the severity of strabismus.

  4. Separation of the effects of astigmatic figure error from misalignments using Nodal Aberration Theory (NAT).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmid, Tobias; Rolland, Jannick P; Rakich, Andrew; Thompson, Kevin P

    2010-08-02

    We present the nodal aberration field response of Ritchey-Chrétien telescopes to a combination of optical component misalignments and astigmatic figure error on the primary mirror. It is shown that both astigmatic figure error and secondary mirror misalignments lead to binodal astigmatism, but that each type has unique, characteristic locations for the astigmatic nodes. Specifically, the characteristic node locations in the presence of astigmatic figure error (at the pupil) in an otherwise aligned telescope exhibit symmetry with respect to the field center, i.e. the midpoint between the astigmatic nodes remains at the field center. For the case of secondary mirror misalignments, one of the astigmatic nodes remains nearly at the field center (in a coma compensated state) as presented in Optics Express 18, 5282-5288 (2010), while the second astigmatic node moves away from the field center. This distinction leads directly to alignment methods that preserve the dynamic range of the active wavefront compensation component.

  5. Study of Lateral Misalignment Tolerance of a Symmetric Free-Space Optical Link for Intra International Space Station Communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tedder, Sarah; Schoenholz, Bryan; Suddath, Shannon

    2016-01-01

    This paper describes the study of lateral misalignment tolerance of a symmetric high-rate free-space optical link (FSOL) for use between International Space Station (ISS) payload sites and the main cabin. The link will enable gigabit per second (Gbps) transmission of data, which is up to three orders of magnitude greater than the current capabilities. This application includes 10-20 meter links and requires minimum size, weight, and power (SWaP). The optical power must not present an eye hazard and must be easily integrated into the existing ISS infrastructure. On the ISS, rapid thermal changes and astronaut movement will cause flexure of the structure which will potentially misalign the free space transmit and receive optics 9 cm laterally and 0.2 degrees angularly. If this misalignment is not accounted for, a loss of the link or degradation of link performance will occur. Power measurements were collected to better understand the effect of various system design parameters on lateral misalignment. Parameters that were varied include: the type of small form pluggable (SFP) transceivers, type of fiber, and transmitted power level. A potential solution was identified that can reach the lateral misalignment tolerance (decenter span) required to create an FSOL on the ISS by using 105 m core fibers, a duplex SFP, two channels of light, and two fiber amplifiers.

  6. Diffuse γ-ray emission from misaligned active galactic nuclei

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Di Mauro, M.; Donato, F. [Physics Department, Torino University, and Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Sezione di Torino, via Giuria 1, I-10125 Torino (Italy); Calore, F. [II. Institute for Theoretical Physics, University of Hamburg, Luruper Chaussee 149, D-22761 Hamburg (Germany); Ajello, M. [Space Sciences Laboratory, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States); Latronico, L., E-mail: donato@to.infn.it [Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Sezione di Torino, via Giuria 1, I-10125 Torino (Italy)

    2014-01-10

    Active galactic nuclei (AGNs) with jets seen at small viewing angles are the most luminous and abundant objects in the γ-ray sky. AGNs with jets misaligned along the line of sight appear fainter in the sky but are more numerous than the brighter blazars. We calculate the diffuse γ-ray emission due to the population of misaligned AGNs (MAGNs) unresolved by the Large Area Telescope (LAT) on the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope (Fermi). A correlation between the γ-ray luminosity and the radio-core luminosity is established and demonstrated to be physical by statistical tests, as well as compatible with upper limits based on Fermi-LAT data for a large sample of radio-loud MAGNs. We constrain the derived γ-ray luminosity function by means of the source-count distribution of the radio galaxies detected by the Fermi-LAT. We finally calculate the diffuse γ-ray flux due to the whole MAGN population. Our results demonstrate that MAGNs can contribute from 10% up to nearly the entire measured isotropic gamma-ray background. We evaluate a theoretical uncertainty on the flux of almost an order of magnitude.

  7. Improvement of journal bearing operation at heavy misalignment using bearing flexibility and compliant liners

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Kim; Klit, Peder

    2012-01-01

    A flexure journal bearing design is proposed that will improve operational behaviour of a journal bearing at pronounced misalignment. Using a thermoelastohydrodynamic model, it is shown that the proposed flexure journal bearing has vastly increased the hydrodynamic performance compared to the stiff...... bearing when misaligned. The hydrodynamic performance is evaluated on lubricant film thickness, pressure and temperature. Furthermore, the influence of a compliant bearing liner is investigated and it is found that it increases the hydrodynamic performance when applied to a stiff bearing, whereas...... the liner has practically no influence on the flexure journal bearing's performance....

  8. Implementation of a cone-beam reconstruction algorithm for the single-circle source orbit with embedded misalignment correction using homogeneous coordinates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karolczak, Marek; Schaller, Stefan; Engelke, Klaus; Lutz, Andreas; Taubenreuther, Ulrike; Wiesent, Karl; Kalender, Willi

    2001-01-01

    We present an efficient implementation of an approximate cone-beam image reconstruction algorithm for application in tomography, which accounts for scanner mechanical misalignment. The implementation is based on the algorithm proposed by Feldkamp et al. [J. Opt. Soc. Am. A 6, 612-619 (1984)] and is directed at circular scan paths. The algorithm has been developed for the purpose of reconstructing volume data from projections acquired in an experimental x-ray microtomography (μCT) scanner [Engelke et al., Der Radiologe 39, 203-212 (1999)]. To mathematically model misalignment we use matrix notation with homogeneous coordinates to describe the scanner geometry, its misalignment, and the acquisition process. For convenience analysis is carried out for x-ray CT scanners, but it is applicable to any tomographic modality, where two-dimensional projection acquisition in cone beam geometry takes place, e.g., single photon emission computerized tomography. We derive an algorithm assuming misalignment errors to be small enough to weight and filter original projections and to embed compensation for misalignment in the backprojection. We verify the algorithm on simulations of virtual phantoms and scans of a physical multidisk (Defrise) phantom

  9. Numerical modeling of a rotor misalignment; Modelado numerico del desalineamiento de un rotor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leon Pina, Roberto

    2009-12-15

    In the turbo-machinery area after an unbalancing, the misalignment is the fault that most frequently appears, and this one has been little studied compared to the unbalance. The misalignment appears when the geometric centers of two shafts and/or bearings do not coincide, these differences take place by different factors such as: incorrect installation of the bearings or rotors, thermal effects, or rotor weight, to mention some of them. The of the misalignment diagnosis continues being an area little studied, since the effects it generates are complex and include diverse physical processes reason why it presents/displays similar symptoms to those of other faults; thus, one of the methods that are used to diagnose this fault, is based on analyzing the vibration phantoms but this works only under particular conditions. In order to reproduce the dynamic behavior of a misaligned rotor, in the present work non-linear simplified models of the supports are used, whose objective is to contribute to facilitate future studies of the flow-dynamic behavior of the bearing, helping to identify the type and magnitude of the existing non-linearity in the supports and leaning in the analysis of the vibratory behavior of misaligned rotors observed in the field. [Spanish] En el area de turbomaquinaria despues del desbalance, el desalineamiento es la falla que se presenta con mayor frecuencia, y esta se ha estudiado poco comparada con el desbalance. El desalineamiento se presenta cuando los centros geometricos de dos flechas y/o chumaceras no coinciden, estas diferencias se producen por diferentes factores como: instalacion incorrecta de las chumaceras o rotores, efectos termicos, o el peso del rotor, por mencionar algunos. El diagnostico del desalineamiento sigue siendo una area poco estudiada, ya que los efectos que genera son complejos y abarcan diversos procesos fisicos por lo que presenta sintomas similares a los de otras fallas; asi, uno de los metodos que se utilizan para

  10. r-Process nucleosynthesis from three-dimensional jet-driven core-collapse supernovae with magnetic misalignments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halevi, Goni; Mösta, Philipp

    2018-06-01

    We investigate r-process nucleosynthesis in three-dimensional general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations of jet-driven supernovae resulting from rapidly rotating, strongly magnetized core-collapse. We explore the effect of misaligning the pre-collapse magnetic field with respect to the rotation axis by performing four simulations: one aligned model and models with 15°, 30°, and 45° misalignments. The simulations we present employ a microphysical finite-temperature equation of state and a leakage scheme that captures the overall energetics and lepton number exchange due to post-bounce neutrino emission and absorption. We track the thermodynamic properties of the ejected material with Lagrangian tracer particles and analyse its composition with the nuclear reaction network SKYNET. By using different neutrino luminosities in post-processing the tracer data with SKYNET, we constrain the impact of uncertainties in neutrino luminosities. We find that, for the aligned model considered here, the use of an approximate leakage scheme results in neutrino luminosity uncertainties corresponding to a factor of 100-1000 uncertainty in the abundance of third peak r-process elements. Our results show that for misalignments of 30° or less, r-process elements are robustly produced as long as neutrino luminosities are reasonably low (≲ 5 × 1052 erg s-1). For a more extreme misalignment of 45°, we find the production of r-process elements beyond the second peak significantly reduced. We conclude that robust r-process nucleosynthesis in magnetorotational supernovae requires a progenitor stellar core with a large poloidal magnetic field component that is at least moderately (within ˜30°) aligned with the rotation axis.

  11. Dynamic characteristics of dual-rotor system with coupling faults of misalignment and rub-impact

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huang Zhiwei

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available According to fault problems of the rotor system local rubbing caused by mass eccentricity, a dynamic model for the dual-rotor system with coupling faults of misalignment and rub-impact was established. The dynamic behaviours of this system were investigated by using numerical integral method, as parallel and angular misalignment varied. Various nonlinear phenomena compressing periodic, three-periodic and quasi-periodic motions are observed. The results reveal that the process of the rotor rub-impact is extremely complex and has some frequencies with large amplitude, especially at the 1/3X component. Meanwhile, quasi-periodic regions exhibit different configurations of attractors and the phenomenon of beat vibration.

  12. Scenario Planning as Organizational Intervention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose; Nielsen, Bo Bernhard

    2017-01-01

    existing contributions on scenario planning within a new consolidating framework that includes antecedents, processes, and outcomes. The proposed framework allows for integration of the extant literature on scenario planning from a wide variety of fields, including strategic management, finance, human...... resource management, operations management, and psychology. Findings: This study contributes to research by offering a coherent and consistent framework for understanding scenario planning as a dynamic process. As such, it offers future researchers with a systematic way to ascertain where a particular......Purpose: This paper identifies four areas in need of future research to enhance our theoretical understanding of scenario planning, and sets the basis for future empirical examination of its effects on individual and organizational level outcomes. Design/methodology/approach: This paper organizes...

  13. Design and fabrication of a self-aligned parallel-plate-type silicon micromirror minimizing the effect of misalignment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoo, Byung-Wook; Jin, Joo-Young; Jang, Yun-Ho; Kim, Yong-Kweon; Park, Jae-Hyoung

    2009-01-01

    This paper describes a self-alignment method whereby a mirror actuation voltage, corresponding to a specific tilting angle, is unvarying in terms of misalignment during fabrication. A deep silicon etching process is proposed to penetrate the top silicon layer (the micromirror layer) and an amorphous silicon layer (the addressing electrode layer) together, through an aluminum mask pattern, in order to minimize the misalignment effect on the micromirror actuation. The size of a fabricated mirror plate is 250 × 250 × 4 µm 3 . A pair of amorphous silicon electrodes under the mirror plate is about half the size of the mirror plate individually. Numerical analysis associated with calculating the pull-in voltage and the bonding misalignment is performed to verify the self-alignment concepts focused upon in this paper. Curves of the applied voltage versus the tilt angle of the self-aligned micromirror are observed using a position sensing detector in order to compare the measurement results with MATLAB analysis of the expected static deflections. Although a 3.7 µm misalignment is found between the mirror plate and the electrodes, in the direction perpendicular to the shallow trench of the electrodes, before the self-alignment process, the measured pull-in voltage has been found to be 103.4 V on average; this differs from the pull-in voltage of a perfectly aligned micromirror by only 0.67%. Regardless of the unpredictable misalignments in repetitive photolithography and bonding, the tilting angles corresponding to the driving voltages are proved to be uniform along the single axis as well as conform to the results of analytical analysis

  14. Pumping behavior of ion pump elements at high and misaligned magnetic fields

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hseuh, H. C.; Jiang, W. S.; Mapes, M.

    1994-11-01

    The pumping speeds of several diode type ion pump elements with cell radii of 5 mm, 5.5 mm, 6 mm, 9 mm and 12 mm were measured while being subjected to a magnetic field B, ranging from 500 Gauss up to 15 KG, and misalignment angles (angles between the direction of B and the anode axis) from 0 to 13 degrees. The pumping speeds of elements with the 9 mm and 12 mm cells peaked around 1--2 KG, then dropped off rapidly with an increasing magnetic field. The pumping speeds of the smaller cell elements remained constant with an increasing magnetic field. The pumping speeds of all the elements decreased with increasing misalignment. The measured pumping speeds from this study are 3--4 times lower than the calculated pumping, speeds using previously reported empirical formulae.

  15. Pumping behavior of ion pump elements at high and misaligned magnetic fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hseuh, H.C.; Jiang, W.S.; Mapes, M.

    1994-01-01

    The pumping speeds of several diode type ion pump elements with cell radii of 5 mm, 5.5 mm, 6 mm, 9 mm and 12 mm were measured while being subjected to a magnetic field B, ranging from 500 Gauss up to 15 KG, and misalignment angles (angles between the direction of B and the anode axis) from 0 to 13 degrees. The pumping speeds of elements with the 9 mm and 12 mm cells peaked around 1--2 KG, then dropped off rapidly with an increasing magnetic field. The pumping speeds of the smaller cell elements remained constant with an increasing magnetic field. The pumping speeds of all the elements decreased with increasing misalignment. The measured pumping speeds from this study are 3--4 times lower than the calculated pumping, speeds using previously reported empirical formulae

  16. Shift work: health, performance and safety problems, traditional countermeasures, and innovative management strategies to reduce circadian misalignment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Mark R; Eastman, Charmane I

    2012-01-01

    There are three mechanisms that may contribute to the health, performance, and safety problems associated with night-shift work: (1) circadian misalignment between the internal circadian clock and activities such as work, sleep, and eating, (2) chronic, partial sleep deprivation, and (3) melatonin suppression by light at night. The typical countermeasures, such as caffeine, naps, and melatonin (for its sleep-promoting effect), along with education about sleep and circadian rhythms, are the components of most fatigue risk-management plans. We contend that these, while better than nothing, are not enough because they do not address the underlying cause of the problems, which is circadian misalignment. We explain how to reset (phase-shift) the circadian clock to partially align with the night-work, day-sleep schedule, and thus reduce circadian misalignment while preserving sleep and functioning on days off. This involves controlling light and dark using outdoor light exposure, sunglasses, sleep in the dark, and a little bright light during night work. We present a diagram of a sleep-and-light schedule to reduce circadian misalignment in permanent night work, or a rotation between evenings and nights, and give practical advice on how to implement this type of plan. PMID:23620685

  17. Diagnosis and Model Based Identification of a Coupling Misalignment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Pennacchi

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is focused on the application of two different diagnostic techniques aimed to identify the most important faults in rotating machinery as well as on the simulation and prediction of the frequency response of rotating machines. The application of the two diagnostics techniques, the orbit shape analysis and the model based identification in the frequency domain, is described by means of an experimental case study that concerns a gas turbine-generator unit of a small power plant whose rotor-train was affected by an angular misalignment in a flexible coupling, caused by a wrong machine assembling. The fault type is identified by means of the orbit shape analysis, then the equivalent bending moments, which enable the shaft experimental vibrations to be simulated, have been identified using a model based identification method. These excitations have been used to predict the machine vibrations in a large rotating speed range inside which no monitoring data were available. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first case of identification of coupling misalignment and prediction of the consequent machine behaviour in an actual size rotating machinery. The successful results obtained emphasise the usefulness of integrating common condition monitoring techniques with diagnostic strategies.

  18. Rotating-coil calibration in a reference quadrupole, considering roll-angle misalignment and higher-order harmonics

    CERN Document Server

    AUTHOR|(CDS)2075492; Buzio, Marco; Köster, Oliver; Russenschuck, Stephan; Severino, Giordana

    2016-01-01

    A method is proposed for calibrating the radius of a rotating coil sensor by relaxing the metrological constraints on alignment and field errors of the reference quadrupole. A coil radius calibration considering a roll-angle misalignment of the measurement bench, the magnet, and the motor-drive unit is analyzed. Then, the error arising from higher-order harmonic field imperfections in the reference quadrupole is assessed. The method is validated by numerical field computation for both the higher-order harmonic errors and the roll-angle misalignment. Finally, an experimental proof-of-principle demonstration is car-ried out in a calibration magnet with sextupole harmonic.

  19. Tidal Turbines’ Layout in a Stream with Asymmetry and Misalignment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolas Guillou

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available A refined assessment of tidal currents variability is a prerequisite for successful turbine deployment in the marine environment. However, the numerical evaluation of the tidal kinetic energy resource relies, most of the time, on integrated parameters, such as the averaged or maximum stream powers. Predictions from a high resolution three-dimensional model are exploited here to characterize the asymmetry and misalignment between the flood and ebb tidal currents in the “Raz de Sein”, a strait off western Brittany (France with strong potential for array development. A series of parameters is considered to assess resource variability and refine the cartography of local potential tidal stream energy sites. The strait is characterized by strong tidal flow divergence with currents’ asymmetry liable to vary output power by 60% over a tidal cycle. Pronounced misalignments over 20 ∘ are furthermore identified in a great part of energetic locations, and this may account for a deficit of the monthly averaged extractable energy by more than 12%. As sea space is limited for turbines, it is finally suggested to aggregate flood and ebb-dominant stream powers on both parts of the strait to output energy with reduced asymmetry.

  20. Ex-core detector response caused by control rod misalignment observed during operation of the reactor on the nuclear ship Mutsu

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Itagaki, Masafumi; Miyoshi, Yoshinori; Gakuhari, Kazuhiko; Okada, Noboru; Sakai, Tomohiro

    1993-01-01

    Unexpected deviations of ex-core neutron detector signals were observed during a voyage of the Japanese nuclear ship, Mutsu. From detailed three-dimensional analyses, this phenomenon was determined to be caused by an asymmetrical neutron source distribution in the core due to a small misalignment between the two control rods of a control rod group. A systematic ex-core detector response experiment was performed during the Mutsu's third experimental voyage to gain some understanding of the relationship between the control rod pattern and the detector response characteristics. Results obtained from analyses of the experiment indicate that the Crump-Lee technique, using calculated three-dimensional source distributions for various control rod patterns, provides good agreement between the calculated and measured detector responses. Xenon transient analyses were carried out to generate accurate three-dimensional source distributions for predicting the time-dependent detector response characteristics. Two types of ex-core detector responses are caused by changes in the control rod pattern in the Mutsu reactor: the detector response ratio tends to decrease with the withdrawal of a group of control rods as a pair, and a difference in the positions of the control rods in a group causes signal deviations among the four ex-core detectors. Control rod misalignment does not greatly affect the mean value of the four detector signals, and the deviation can be minimized if the two rods within a group are set at the same elevation at the time of detector calibration

  1. Shift work: health, performance and safety problems, traditional countermeasures, and innovative management strategies to reduce circadian misalignment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smith MR

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Mark R Smith, Charmane I EastmanBiological Rhythms Research Laboratory, Rush University Medical Center, Chicago, IL, USAAbstract: There are three mechanisms that may contribute to the health, performance, and safety problems associated with night-shift work: (1 circadian misalignment between the internal circadian clock and activities such as work, sleep, and eating, (2 chronic, partial sleep deprivation, and (3 melatonin suppression by light at night. The typical countermeasures, such as caffeine, naps, and melatonin (for its sleep-promoting effect, along with education about sleep and circadian rhythms, are the components of most fatigue risk-management plans. We contend that these, while better than nothing, are not enough because they do not address the underlying cause of the problems, which is circadian misalignment. We explain how to reset (phase-shift the circadian clock to partially align with the night-work, day-sleep schedule, and thus reduce circadian misalignment while preserving sleep and functioning on days off. This involves controlling light and dark using outdoor light exposure, sunglasses, sleep in the dark, and a little bright light during night work. We present a diagram of a sleep-and-light schedule to reduce circadian misalignment in permanent night work, or a rotation between evenings and nights, and give practical advice on how to implement this type of plan.Keywords: circadian rhythms, night work, bright light, phase-shifting, sleep, melatonin

  2. Optical performance effects of the misalignment of nonimaging optics solar collectors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferry, Jonathan; Ricketts, Melissa; Winston, Roland

    2017-09-01

    The use of non-imaging optics in the application of high temperature solar thermal collectors can be extremely advantageous in eliminating the need to track the sun. The stationary nature of non-imaging optics collectors, commonly called compound parabolic concentrators (CPC's), present a unique design challenge when orienting them to collect sunlight. Many facilities throughout the world that adopt CPCs are not situated to orient the collectors in the ideal angle facing the sun. This East-West misalignment can adversely affect the optical and power performance of the CPC collector. To characterize how this misalignment effects CPCs, reverse raytracing simulations are conducted for varying offset angles of the collectors from solar South. Optical performance is analyzed for an ideal East-West oriented CPC with a 40-degree acceptance angle. Direction cosine plots are used to develop a ratio of annual solar collection by the CPC over the total annual solar input. From these simulations, average annual collector performance is given for offset angles ranging from 0 to 90 degrees for different Earth Latitudes in 10 degree increments.

  3. An Autonomous Coil Alignment System for the Dynamic Wireless Charging of Electric Vehicles to Minimize Lateral Misalignment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karam Hwang

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes an autonomous coil alignment system (ACAS for electric vehicles (EVs with dynamic wireless charging (DWC to mitigate the reduction in received power caused by lateral misalignment between the source and load coils. The key component of the ACAS is a novel sensor coil design, which can detect the load coil’s left or right position relative to the source coil by observing the change in voltage phase. This allows the lateral misalignment to be estimated through the wireless power transfer (WPT system alone, which is a novel tracking method for vehicular applications. Once misalignment is detected, the vehicle’s lateral position is self-adjusted by an autonomous steering function. The feasibility of the overall operation of the ACAS was verified through simulation and experiments. In addition, an analysis based on experimental results was conducted, demonstrating that 26% more energy can be transferred during DWC with the ACAS, just by keeping the vehicle’s load coil aligned with the source coil.

  4. Elaborating SRES scenarios for nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McDonald, Alan; Riahi, Keywan; Rogner, Hans-Holger

    2003-01-01

    The objective of this paper is identifying mid-century economic targets for nuclear energy. The first step is to describe what the mid-century energy market might look like: the major competitors for nuclear energy, what products are in demand, how much of each, where is growth greatest, and so forth. The mechanism for systematically describing the future market is scenario building. The starting point is the scenarios in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. SRES developed four narrative story lines, each representing a different coherent set of demographic, social, economic, technological, and environmental developments. For each story line several different scenarios were developed by six international modelling teams, resulting in 40 scenarios grouped in the 4 story lines. For three of the story lines this paper uses a single marker scenario representative of central tendencies within the scenario family. For the fourth story line the authors chose the scenario that assumes that advances in non-fossil technologies - renewable, nuclear, and high-efficiency conservation technologies - make them most cost-competitive. (BA)

  5. Evaluation of Spur Gear Pair on Tooth Root Bending Stress in Radial Misalignment Contact Condition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lias M.R.

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper evaluates the effects of radial misalignment contact on the tooth root bending stress values of spur gear pair during the gear meshing cycle. Radial misalignment (H is denoted as the deviation of the pinion nominal position with respect to the gear tooth along the pinion axis to the gear which happened from manufacturing assembly errors (AE. A model based on involute 3D parametric CAD geometry, of spur gear design ISO 6336:2006 is analysed with allowable AE values from minimum 10μm to maximum 40μm with Finite-Element Method (FEM model based methodology using a dynamics module from ANSYS. Main parameters of interest are the Tooth root bending stress (TRBS in H condition with AE along the critical region with respect to face width of pinion-gear section. A comparison between standard High point single tooth contact models (HPSTC to this model showed a good agreement that H with AE had great influence on TRBS as the values’ increase. Radial misalignment influence factor (RMIF was introduced as indication of TRBS values in consideration of H due to AE shows and inverted patterns higher for pinion, give a good justification that the pinion is weaker compared to the gear.

  6. Role of misalignment-induced angular chirp in the electro-optic detection of THz waves

    CERN Document Server

    Walsh, D A; Pan, R; Snedden, E W; Graham, D M; Gillespie, W A; Jamison, S P

    2014-01-01

    A general description of electro-optic detection including non-collinear phase matching and finite transverse beam profiles is presented. It is shown theoretically and experimentally that non-collinear phase matching in ZnTe (and similar materials) produces an angular chirp in the chi((2))-generated optical signal. Due to this, in non-collinear THz and probe arrangements such as single-shot THz measurements or through accidental misalignment, measurement of an undistorted THz signal is critically dependent on having sufficient angular acceptance in the optical probe path. The associated spatial walk-off can also preclude the phase retardation approximation used in THz-TDS. The rate of misalignment-induced chirping in commonly used ZnTe and GaP schemes is tabulated, allowing ready analysis of a detection system. (C) 2014 Optical Society of America.

  7. Kinetic equilibrium of space charge dominated beams in a misaligned quadrupole focusing channel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goswami, A.; Sing Babu, P.; Pandit, V. S.

    2013-01-01

    The dynamics of intense beam propagation through the misaligned quadrupole focusing channel has been studied in a self-consistent manner using nonlinear Vlasov-Maxwell equations. The equations of motion of the beam centroid have been developed and found to be independent of any specific beam distribution. A Vlasov equilibrium distribution and beam envelope equations have been obtained, which provide us a theoretical tool to investigate the dynamics of intense beam propagating in a misaligned quadrupole focusing channel. It is shown that the displaced quadrupoles only cause the centroid of the beam to wander off axis. The beam envelope around the centroid obeys the familiar Kapchinskij-Vladimirskij envelope equation that is independent of the centroid motion. However, the rotation of the quadrupole about its optical axis affects the beam envelope and causes an increase in the projected emittances in the two transverse planes due to the inter-plane coupling

  8. Effect of Difference-frequency Forces on the Dynamics of a Semi-submersible Type FVAWT in Misaligned Wave-wind Condition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Kai; Cheng, Zhengshun; Moan, Torgeir

    2015-01-01

    With increasing interests in the development of offshore floating vertical axis wind turbines (FVAWTs), a large amount of studies on the FVAWTs have been conducted. This paper focuses on evaluating the effect of second-order difference-frequency force on the dynamics of a 5 MW FVAWT in misaligned...... wave-wind condition. The studied FVAWT is composed of a 5 MW Darrieus rotor, a semi-submersible floater and a catenary mooring system. Fully coupled nonlinear time domain simulations were conducted using the state-of-art code Simo- Riflex-DMS. Several misaligned wave-wind conditions were selected...... to investigate the global dynamic responses of the FVAWT, such as the platform motions, structural responses and mooring line tensions. It has been found that the wave-wind misalignment does not significantly affect the mean values of the global responses since the global responses are primarily wind...

  9. Bilateral, Misalignment-Compensating, Full-DOF Hip Exoskeleton: Design and Kinematic Validation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karen Junius

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A shared design goal for most robotic lower limb exoskeletons is to reduce the metabolic cost of locomotion for the user. Despite this, only a limited amount of devices was able to actually reduce user metabolic consumption. Preservation of the natural motion kinematics was defined as an important requirement for a device to be metabolically beneficial. This requires the inclusion of all human degrees of freedom (DOF in a design, as well as perfect alignment of the rotation axes. As perfect alignment is impossible, compensation for misalignment effects should be provided. A misalignment compensation mechanism for a 3-DOF system is presented in this paper. It is validated by the implementation in a bilateral hip exoskeleton, resulting in a compact and lightweight device that can be donned fast and autonomously, with a minimum of required adaptations. Extensive testing of the prototype has shown that hip range of motion of the user is maintained while wearing the device and this for all three hip DOFs. This allowed the users to maintain their natural motion patterns when they are walking with the novel hip exoskeleton.

  10. Bilateral, Misalignment-Compensating, Full-DOF Hip Exoskeleton: Design and Kinematic Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Degelaen, Marc; Lefeber, Nina; Swinnen, Eva; Vanderborght, Bram; Lefeber, Dirk

    2017-01-01

    A shared design goal for most robotic lower limb exoskeletons is to reduce the metabolic cost of locomotion for the user. Despite this, only a limited amount of devices was able to actually reduce user metabolic consumption. Preservation of the natural motion kinematics was defined as an important requirement for a device to be metabolically beneficial. This requires the inclusion of all human degrees of freedom (DOF) in a design, as well as perfect alignment of the rotation axes. As perfect alignment is impossible, compensation for misalignment effects should be provided. A misalignment compensation mechanism for a 3-DOF system is presented in this paper. It is validated by the implementation in a bilateral hip exoskeleton, resulting in a compact and lightweight device that can be donned fast and autonomously, with a minimum of required adaptations. Extensive testing of the prototype has shown that hip range of motion of the user is maintained while wearing the device and this for all three hip DOFs. This allowed the users to maintain their natural motion patterns when they are walking with the novel hip exoskeleton. PMID:28790799

  11. Modeling the Effects of Mirror Misalignment in a Ring Imaging Cherenkov Detector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hitchcock, Tawanda; Harton, Austin; Garcia, Edmundo

    2012-03-01

    The Very High Momentum Particle Identification Detector (VHMPID) has been proposed for the ALICE experiment at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). This detector upgrade is considered necessary to study jet-matter interaction at high energies. The VHMPID identifies charged hadrons in the 5 GeV/c to 25 GeV/c momentum range. The Cherenkov photons emitted in the VHMPID radiator are collected by spherical mirrors and focused onto a photo-detector plane forming a ring image. The radius of this ring is related to the Cherenkov angle, this information coupled with the particle momentum allows the particle identification. A major issue in the RICH detector is that environmental conditions can cause movements in mirror position. In addition, chromatic dispersion causes the refractive index to shift, altering the Cherenkov angle. We are modeling a twelve mirror RICH detector taking into account the effects of mirror misalignment and chromatic dispersion using a commercial optical software package. This will include quantifying the effects of both rotational and translational mirror misalignment for the initial assembly of the module and later on particle identification.

  12. xLPR Scenario Analysis Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey Celia [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lewis, John R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Brooks, Dusty Marie [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Martin, Nevin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hund, Lauren [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Clark, Andrew Jordan [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mariner, Paul [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-03-01

    This report describes the methods, results, and conclusions of the analysis of 11 scenarios defined to exercise various options available in the xLPR (Extremely Low Probability of Rupture) Version 2 .0 code. The scope of the scenario analysis is three - fold: (i) exercise the various options and components comprising xLPR v2.0 and defining each scenario; (ii) develop and exercise methods for analyzing and interpreting xLPR v2.0 outputs ; and (iii) exercise the various sampling options available in xLPR v2.0. The simulation workflow template developed during the course of this effort helps to form a basis for the application of the xLPR code to problems with similar inputs and probabilistic requirements and address in a systematic manner the three points covered by the scope.

  13. Inferences about Supernova Physics from Gravitational-Wave Measurements: GW151226 Spin Misalignment as an Indicator of Strong Black-Hole Natal Kicks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Shaughnessy, Richard; Gerosa, Davide; Wysocki, Daniel

    2017-07-07

    The inferred parameters of the binary black hole GW151226 are consistent with nonzero spin for the most massive black hole, misaligned from the binary's orbital angular momentum. If the black holes formed through isolated binary evolution from an initially aligned binary star, this misalignment would then arise from a natal kick imparted to the first-born black hole at its birth during stellar collapse. We use simple kinematic arguments to constrain the characteristic magnitude of this kick, and find that a natal kick v_{k}≳50  km/s must be imparted to the black hole at birth to produce misalignments consistent with GW151226. Such large natal kicks exceed those adopted by default in most of the current supernova and binary evolution models.

  14. Planet Formation in Disks with Inclined Binary Companions: Can Primordial Spin-Orbit Misalignment be Produced?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zanazzi, J. J.; Lai, Dong

    2018-04-01

    Many hot Jupiter (HJ) systems have been observed to have their stellar spin axis misaligned with the planet's orbital angular momentum axis. The origin of this spin-orbit misalignment and the formation mechanism of HJs remain poorly understood. A number of recent works have suggested that gravitational interactions between host stars, protoplanetary disks, and inclined binary companions may tilt the stellar spin axis with respect to the disk's angular angular momentum axis, producing planetary systems with misaligned orbits. These previous works considered idealized disk evolution models and neglected the gravitational influence of newly formed planets. In this paper, we explore how disk photoevaporation and planet formation and migration affect the inclination evolution of planet-star-disk-binary systems. We take into account planet-disk interactions and the gravitational spin-orbit coupling between the host star and the planet. We find that the rapid depletion of the inner disk via photoevaporation reduces the excitation of stellar obliquities. Depending on the formation and migration history of HJs, the spin-orbit coupling between the star and the planet may reduces and even completely suppress the excitation of stellar obliquities. Our work constrains the formation/migration history of HJs. On the other hand, planetary systems with "cold" Jupiters or close-in super-earths may experience excitation of stellar obliquities in the presence of distant inclined companions.

  15. Designing and Evaluating Conative Game-Based Learning Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schønau-Fog, Henrik

    2014-01-01

    It is an essential prerequisite to design for motivation in game-based learning applications, tools and activities. However, how is it possible to design and evaluate motivational game-based learning scenarios in a systematic process-oriented manner based on conation and player engagement? While...... of ‘continuation desire’ such as interfacing with the scenario, exploration and socialising. This paper aims to combine the concepts of Player Engagement, Conation and Continuation Desire by focusing on the conative aspects which are the essential drivers for the desire to continue any learning activity......-based learning scenarios....

  16. Stepping into the virtual unknown: feasibility study of a virtual reality-based test of ocular misalignment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nesaratnam, N; Thomas, P; Vivian, A

    2017-10-01

    IntroductionDissociated tests of strabismus provide valuable information for diagnosis and monitoring of ocular misalignment in patients with normal retinal correspondence. However, they are vulnerable to operator error and rely on a fixed head position. Virtual reality headsets obviate the need for head fixation, while providing other clear theoretical advantages, including complete control over the illumination and targets presented for the patient's interaction.PurposeWe compared the performance of a virtual reality-based test of ocular misalignment to that of the traditional Lees screen, to establish the feasibility of using virtual reality technology in ophthalmic settings in the future.MethodsThree patients underwent a traditional Lees screen test, and a virtual reality headset-based test of ocular motility. The virtual reality headset-based programme consisted of an initial test to measure horizontal and vertical deviation, followed by a test for torsion.ResultsThe pattern of deviation obtained using the virtual reality-based test showed agreement with that obtained from the Lees screen for patients with a fourth nerve palsy, comitant esotropia, and restrictive thyroid eye disease.ConclusionsThis study reports the first use of a virtual reality headset in assessing ocular misalignment, and demonstrates that it is a feasible dissociative test of strabismus.

  17. Designing of self-deploying origami structures using geometrically misaligned crease patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saito, Kazuya; Tsukahara, Akira; Okabe, Yoji

    2016-01-01

    Usually, origami-based morphing structures are designed on the premise of 'rigid folding', i.e. the facets and fold lines of origami can be replaced with rigid panels and ideal hinges, respectively. From a structural mechanics viewpoint, some rigid-foldable origami models are overconstrained and have negative degrees of freedom (d.f.). In these cases, the singularity in crease patterns guarantees their rigid foldability. This study presents a new method for designing self-deploying origami using the geometrically misaligned creases. In this method, some facets are replaced by 'holes' such that the systems become a 1-d.f. mechanism. These perforated origami models can be folded and unfolded similar to rigid-foldable (without misalignment) models because of their d.f. focusing on the removed facets, the holes will deform according to the motion of the frame of the remaining parts. In the proposed method, these holes are filled with elastic parts and store elastic energy for self-deployment. First, a new extended rigid-folding simulation technique is proposed to estimate the deformation of the holes. Next, the proposed method is applied on arbitrary-size quadrilateral mesh origami. Finally, by using the finite-element method, the authors conduct numerical simulations and confirm the deployment capabilities of the models.

  18. Impact of mismatched and misaligned laser light sheet profiles on PIV performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grayson, K.; de Silva, C. M.; Hutchins, N.; Marusic, I.

    2018-01-01

    The effect of mismatched or misaligned laser light sheet profiles on the quality of particle image velocimetry (PIV) results is considered in this study. Light sheet profiles with differing widths, shapes, or alignment can reduce the correlation between PIV images and increase experimental errors. Systematic PIV simulations isolate these behaviours to assess the sensitivity and implications of light sheet mismatch on measurements. The simulations in this work use flow fields from a turbulent boundary layer; however, the behaviours and impacts of laser profile mismatch are highly relevant to any fluid flow or PIV application. Experimental measurements from a turbulent boundary layer facility are incorporated, as well as additional simulations matched to experimental image characteristics, to validate the synthetic image analysis. Experimental laser profiles are captured using a modular laser profiling camera, designed to quantify the distribution of laser light sheet intensities and inform any corrective adjustments to an experimental configuration. Results suggest that an offset of just 1.35 standard deviations in the Gaussian light sheet intensity distributions can cause a 40% reduction in the average correlation coefficient and a 45% increase in spurious vectors. Errors in measured flow statistics are also amplified when two successive laser profiles are no longer well matched in alignment or intensity distribution. Consequently, an awareness of how laser light sheet overlap influences PIV results can guide faster setup of an experiment, as well as achieve superior experimental measurements.

  19. Influence of End-Effects on Static Torque Performance of Misaligned Cylindrical Permanent Magnet Couplings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Högberg, Stig; Hansen, Hilary; Jensen, Bogi Bech

    2014-01-01

    Permanent magnet couplings are widely used in applications requiring torque to be transmitted through an air- gap. The aim of this study is to observe and explain the effect of radial and axial misalignment in a 12-pole, cylindrical permanent magnet coupling. Pull-out torque was measured for two...

  20. The scenario-based generalization of radiation therapy margins

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fredriksson, Albin; Bokrantz, Rasmus

    2016-01-01

    We give a scenario-based treatment plan optimization formulation that is equivalent to planning with geometric margins if the scenario doses are calculated using the static dose cloud approximation. If the scenario doses are instead calculated more accurately, then our formulation provides a novel robust planning method that overcomes many of the difficulties associated with previous scenario-based robust planning methods. In particular, our method protects only against uncertainties that can occur in practice, it gives a sharp dose fall-off outside high dose regions, and it avoids underdosage of the target in ‘easy’ scenarios. The method shares the benefits of the previous scenario-based robust planning methods over geometric margins for applications where the static dose cloud approximation is inaccurate, such as irradiation with few fields and irradiation with ion beams. These properties are demonstrated on a suite of phantom cases planned for treatment with scanned proton beams subject to systematic setup uncertainty. (paper)

  1. FACET Tolerances for Static and Dynamic Misalignments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Federico, Joel

    2012-07-13

    The Facility for AdvancedAccelerator and Experimental Tests (FACET) at the SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory is designed to deliver a beam with a transverse spot size on the order of 10 {micro}m x 10 {micro}m in a new beamline constructed at the two kilometer point of the SLAC linac. Commissioning the beamline requires mitigating alignment errors and their effects, which can be significant and result in spot sizes orders of magnitude larger. Sextupole and quadrupole alignment errors in particular can introduce errors in focusing, steering, and dispersion which can result in spot size growth, beta mismatch, and waist movement. Alignment errors due to static misalignments, mechanical jitter, energy jitter, and other physical processes can be analyzed to determine the level of accuracy and precision that the beamline requires. It is important to recognize these effects and their tolerances in order to deliver a beam as designed.

  2. Circumstellar Disks and Outflows in Turbulent Molecular Cloud Cores: Possible Formation Mechanism for Misaligned Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matsumoto, Tomoaki [Faculty of Sustainability Studies, Hosei University, Fujimi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 102-8160 (Japan); Machida, Masahiro N. [Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Kyushu University, Fukuoka 812-8581 (Japan); Inutsuka, Shu-ichiro, E-mail: matsu@hosei.ac.jp [Department of Physics, Nagoya University, Chikusa-ku, Nagoya 464-8602 (Japan)

    2017-04-10

    We investigate the formation of circumstellar disks and outflows subsequent to the collapse of molecular cloud cores with the magnetic field and turbulence. Numerical simulations are performed by using an adaptive mesh refinement to follow the evolution up to ∼1000 years after the formation of a protostar. In the simulations, circumstellar disks are formed around the protostars; those in magnetized models are considerably smaller than those in nonmagnetized models, but their size increases with time. The models with stronger magnetic fields tend to produce smaller disks. During evolution in the magnetized models, the mass ratios of a disk to a protostar is approximately constant at ∼1%–10%. The circumstellar disks are aligned according to their angular momentum, and the outflows accelerate along the magnetic field on the 10–100 au scale; this produces a disk that is misaligned with the outflow. The outflows are classified into two types: a magnetocentrifugal wind and a spiral flow. In the latter, because of the geometry, the axis of rotation is misaligned with the magnetic field. The magnetic field has an internal structure in the cloud cores, which also causes misalignment between the outflows and the magnetic field on the scale of the cloud core. The distribution of the angular momentum vectors in a core also has a non-monotonic internal structure. This should create a time-dependent accretion of angular momenta onto the circumstellar disk. Therefore, the circumstellar disks are expected to change their orientation as well as their sizes in the long-term evolutions.

  3. The effect of independent collimator misalignment on the dosimetry of abutted half-beam blocked fields for the treatment of head and neck cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosenthal, D.I.; McDonough, J.; Kassaee, A.

    1998-01-01

    Background and purpose: Independent collimation conveniently allows for the junctioning of abutting fields with non-diverging beam edges. When this technique is used at the junction of multiple fields, e.g. lateral and low anterior fields in three-field head and neck set-ups, there should be a dosimetric match with no overdose or underdose at the matchline. We set out to evaluate the actual dosimetry at the central match plane. Materials and methods: Independent jaws were used to mimic two half-beam blocked fields abutting at the central axis. X-Ray verification film was exposed in a water-equivalent phantom and the dose at the matchline was evaluated with laser densitometry. Collimators were then programmed to force a gap or overlap of the radiation fields to evaluate the effect of jaw misalignment within the tolerance of the manufacturer's specification. Diode measurements of the field edges were also performed. Four beam energies from four different linear accelerators were evaluated. Results: Small systematic inhomogeneities were found along the matchline in all linear accelerators tested. The maximum dose on the central axis varied linearly with small programmed jaw misalignments. For a gap or overlap of 2 mm between the jaws, the matchline dose increased or decreased by 30-40%. The region of overdose or underdose around the matchline is 3-4 mm wide. The discrepancy between the width of jaw separation and the width of the region of altered dose is explained by a penumbra effect.Conclusion: We recommend that independent jaw alignment be evaluated routinely and provide a simple method to estimate dose inhomogeneity at the match plane. If there is a field gap or overlap resulting in a clinically significant change in dosimetry, jaw misalignment should be corrected. If it cannot be corrected, part of the benefit of asymmetric collimation is lost and other methods of field junctioning may have to be considered. We routinely use a small block over the spinal cord at

  4. Interest (mis)alignments in representative negotiations: Do pro-social agents fuel or reduce inter-group conflict?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aaldering, H.; Greer, L.L.; van Kleef, G.A.; de Dreu, C.K.W.

    2013-01-01

    In representative negotiations, interests of the representative and the represented constituency are not always aligned. We investigated how interest (mis)alignment and representative’s social value orientation influence representative negotiations. Past theory and research on the principal-agent

  5. Effect of motion-induced PET-CT misalignment on cardiac function and myocardial blood flow measured using dynamic 15O-water PET

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lubberink, Mark; Ebrahimi, M; Harms, Hans

    -CT misalignment on MBF, transmural MBF (MBFt), perfusable tissue fraction (PTF), cardiac output (CO), stroke volume (SV) and left-ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) based on dynamic 15O-water scans. Methods: 10 patients underwent 6 min PET scans after injection of 400 MBq 15O-water at rest and during adenosine......Aim: Motion-induced PET-CT misalignment artifacts are common in myocardial blood flow (MBF) measurements with 82Rb and 13N-ammonia. For 15O-water, MBF is based on the clearance rate rather than uptake of the tracer. The clearance rate is determined by the shape of the time-activity curve, not its...... amplitude, and is thus not affected by attenuation correction errors. Hence, misalignment is hypothesized not to affect 15O-water-based MBF to any large extent, but it may affect cardiac function measures derived from 15O-water scans. The aim of the present work was to assess the effect of PET...

  6. The GRB-SLSN connection: misaligned magnetars, weak jet emergence, and observational signatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Margalit, Ben; Metzger, Brian D.; Thompson, Todd A.; Nicholl, Matt; Sukhbold, Tuguldur

    2018-04-01

    Multiple lines of evidence support a connection between hydrogen-poor superluminous supernovae (SLSNe) and long-duration gamma-ray bursts (GRBs). Both classes of events require a powerful central energy source, usually attributed to a millisecond magnetar or an accreting black hole. The GRB-SLSN link raises several theoretical questions: What distinguishes the engines responsible for these different phenomena? Can a single engine power both a GRB and a luminous SN in the same event? We propose a unifying model for magnetar thermalization and jet formation: misalignment between the rotation (Ω) and magnetic dipole (μ) axes dissipates a fraction of the spin-down power by reconnection in the striped equatorial wind, providing a guaranteed source of `thermal' emission to power the supernova. The remaining unthermalized power energizes a relativistic jet. We show that even weak relativistic jets of luminosity ˜1046 erg s-1 can escape the expanding SN ejecta implying that escaping relativistic jets may accompany many SLSNe. We calculate the observational signature of these jets. We show that they may produce transient ultraviolet (UV) cocoon emission lasting a few hours when the jet breaks out of the ejecta surface. A longer lived optical/UV signal may originate from a mildly relativistic wind driven from the interface between the jet and the ejecta walls, which could explain the secondary early-time maximum observed in some SLSNe light curves, such as LSQ14bdq. Our scenario predicts a population of GRB from on-axis jets with extremely long durations, potentially similar to the population of `jetted-tidal disruption events', in coincidence with a small subset of SLSNe.

  7. Scenario development and analysis in JNC'S second progress report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Umeki, H.; Makino, H.; Miyahara, K.; Naito, M.

    2001-01-01

    Scenario development and analysis is an integral part of the performance assessment in the JNC's second progress report which will be issued by the end of November 1999. A systematic approach has been elaborated to ensure traceability and transparency in overall context of the scenario development and set up of calculation cases for assessment of the repository performance. In this approach, the hierarchical FEP matrix was designed to flexibly identify FEPs at different level of detail. The reasoned argument with clearly defined criteria was then applied for screening and grouping of FEPs to define scenarios in the form of influence diagrams. Scenarios and calculation cases were developed based on the expected safety functions of disposal system and relationships with potential detrimental/favorable factors and perturbation factors. The process to develop scenarios and calculation cases are recorded and managed in a computer system. (authors)

  8. A Dynamically Adaptable Impedance-Matching System for Midrange Wireless Power Transfer with Misalignment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thuc Phi Duong

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available To enable the geometrical freedom envisioned for wireless power transfer (WPT, fast dynamic adaptation to unpredictable changes in receiver position is needed. In this paper, we propose an adaptive impedance-searching system that achieves good impedance matching quickly. For fast and robust operation, the proposed method consists of three steps: system calibration, coarse search, and fine search. The proposed WPT system is characterized using distance variation and lateral and angular misalignment between coils. The measured results indicate that the proposed method significantly reduces searching time from a few minutes to approximately one second. Furthermore, the proposed system achieves impedance matching with good accuracy. The robust impedance-searching capability of the proposed system significantly improves power transfer efficiency. At 6.78 MHz, we achieve a maximum efficiency of 89.7% and a high efficiency of >80% up to a distance of 50 cm. When the center-to-center misalignment is 35 cm, the efficiency is improved from 48.4% to 74.1% with the proposed method. At a distance of 40 cm, the efficiency is higher than 74% for up to 60° of angular rotation. These results agree well with the simulated results obtained using a lumped-element circuit model.

  9. A pseudo-penalized quasi-likelihood approach to the spatial misalignment problem with non-normal data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopiano, Kenneth K; Young, Linda J; Gotway, Carol A

    2014-09-01

    Spatially referenced datasets arising from multiple sources are routinely combined to assess relationships among various outcomes and covariates. The geographical units associated with the data, such as the geographical coordinates or areal-level administrative units, are often spatially misaligned, that is, observed at different locations or aggregated over different geographical units. As a result, the covariate is often predicted at the locations where the response is observed. The method used to align disparate datasets must be accounted for when subsequently modeling the aligned data. Here we consider the case where kriging is used to align datasets in point-to-point and point-to-areal misalignment problems when the response variable is non-normally distributed. If the relationship is modeled using generalized linear models, the additional uncertainty induced from using the kriging mean as a covariate introduces a Berkson error structure. In this article, we develop a pseudo-penalized quasi-likelihood algorithm to account for the additional uncertainty when estimating regression parameters and associated measures of uncertainty. The method is applied to a point-to-point example assessing the relationship between low-birth weights and PM2.5 levels after the onset of the largest wildfire in Florida history, the Bugaboo scrub fire. A point-to-areal misalignment problem is presented where the relationship between asthma events in Florida's counties and PM2.5 levels after the onset of the fire is assessed. Finally, the method is evaluated using a simulation study. Our results indicate the method performs well in terms of coverage for 95% confidence intervals and naive methods that ignore the additional uncertainty tend to underestimate the variability associated with parameter estimates. The underestimation is most profound in Poisson regression models. © 2014, The International Biometric Society.

  10. Scenario development methods and practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    The safe management of radioactive waste is an essential aspect of all nuclear power programmes. Although a general consensus has been reached in OECD countries on the use of geological repositories for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste, analysis of the long-term safety of these repositories, using performance assessment and other tools, is required prior to implementation. The initial stage in developing a repository safety assessment is the identification of all factors that may be relevant to the long-term safety of the repository and their combination to form scenarios. This must be done in a systematic and transparent way in order to assure the regulatory authorities that nothing important has been forgotten. Scenario development has become the general term used to describe the collection and organisation of the scientific and technical information necessary to assess the long-term performance or safety of radioactive waste disposal systems. This includes the identification of the relevant features, events and processes (FEPs), the synthesis of broad models of scientific understanding, and the selection of cases to be calculated. Scenario development provides the overall framework in which the cases and their calculated consequences can be discussed, including biases or shortcomings due to omissions or lack of knowledge. The NEA Workshop on Scenario Development was organised in Madrid, in May 1999, with the objective of reviewing developments in scenario methodologies and applications in safety assessments since 1992. The outcome of this workshop is the subject of this book. It is a review of developments in scenario methodologies based on a large body of practical experience in safety assessments. It will be of interest to radioactive waste management experts as well as to other specialists involved in the development of scenario methodologies. (author)

  11. On exchange rate misalignments in the Eurozone's peripheral countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grochová, Ladislava; Plecitá, Klára

    2013-10-01

    In this paper we model equilibrium exchange rates for the Eurozone's countries on the basis of the Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate approach, which assumes, that equilibrium exchange rates are in the long run affected by economic fundamentals. To assess the degree of exchange rate misalignment for the Eurozone's peripheral countries - Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain - the gap between the actual and the modelled equilibrium exchange rate value is calculated. Our results show that Spain, Portugal and Ireland had their real exchange rates in equilibrium when they joined the Eurozone; however their real exchange rates have been persistently overvalued since the beginning of the 2000s. Greece, on the other hand, has experienced diminishing undervaluation at the beginning of its membership in the Eurozone and since 2009 has exhibited an overvalued real exchange rate.

  12. FRIENDS OF HOT JUPITERS. II. NO CORRESPONDENCE BETWEEN HOT-JUPITER SPIN-ORBIT MISALIGNMENT AND THE INCIDENCE OF DIRECTLY IMAGED STELLAR COMPANIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ngo, Henry; Knutson, Heather A.; Hinkley, Sasha; Batygin, Konstantin [Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA (United States); Crepp, Justin R.; Bechter, Eric B. [Department of Physics, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN (United States); Howard, Andrew W. [Institute for Astronomy, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI (United States); Johnson, John A. [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Cambridge, MA (United States); Morton, Timothy D. [Cahill Center for Astronomy and Astrophysics, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA (United States); Muirhead, Philip S., E-mail: hngo@caltech.edu [Department of Astronomy, Boston University, Boston, MA (United States)

    2015-02-20

    Multi-star systems are common, yet little is known about a stellar companion's influence on the formation and evolution of planetary systems. For instance, stellar companions may have facilitated the inward migration of hot Jupiters toward to their present day positions. Many observed short-period gas giant planets also have orbits that are misaligned with respect to their star's spin axis, which has also been attributed to the presence of a massive outer companion on a non-coplanar orbit. We present the results of a multi-band direct imaging survey using Keck NIRC2 to measure the fraction of short-period gas giant planets found in multi-star systems. Over three years, we completed a survey of 50 targets ('Friends of Hot Jupiters') with 27 targets showing some signature of multi-body interaction (misaligned or eccentric orbits) and 23 targets in a control sample (well-aligned and circular orbits). We report the masses, projected separations, and confirmed common proper motion for the 19 stellar companions found around 17 stars. Correcting for survey incompleteness, we report companion fractions of 48% ± 9%, 47% ± 12%, and 51% ± 13% in our total, misaligned/eccentric, and control samples, respectively. This total stellar companion fraction is 2.8σ larger than the fraction of field stars with companions approximately 50-2000 AU. We observe no correlation between misaligned/eccentric hot Jupiter systems and the incidence of stellar companions. Combining this result with our previous radial velocity survey, we determine that 72% ± 16% of hot Jupiters are part of multi-planet and/or multi-star systems.

  13. On the Kendrick Mass Defect Plots of Multiply Charged Polymer Ions: Splits, Misalignments, and How to Correct Them

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fouquet, Thierry N. J.; Cody, Robert B.; Ozeki, Yuka; Kitagawa, Shinya; Ohtani, Hajime; Sato, Hiroaki

    2018-05-01

    The Kendrick mass defect (KMD) analysis of multiply charged polymeric distributions has recently revealed a surprising isotopic split in their KMD plots—namely a 1/z difference between KMDs of isotopes of an oligomer at charge state z. Relying on the KMD analysis of actual and simulated distributions of poly(ethylene oxide) (PEO), the isotopic split is mathematically accounted for and found to go with an isotopic misalignment in certain cases. It is demonstrated that the divisibility (resp. indivisibility) of the nominal mass of the repeating unit (R) by z is the condition for homolog ions to line up horizontally (resp. misaligned obliquely) in a KMD plot. Computing KMDs using a fractional base unit R/z eventually corrects the misalignments for the associated charge state while using the least common multiple of all the charge states as the divisor realigns all the points at once. The isotopic split itself can be removed by using either a new charge-dependent KMD plot compatible with any fractional base unit or the remainders of KM (RKM) recently developed for low-resolution data all found to be linked in a unified theory. These original applications of the fractional base units and the RKM plots are of importance theoretically to satisfy the basics of a mass defect analysis and practically for a correct data handling of single stage and tandem mass spectra of multiply charged homo- and copolymers.

  14. The BANANA Project. V. Misaligned and Precessing Stellar Rotation Axes in CV Velorum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albrecht, Simon; Winn, Joshua N.; Torres, Guillermo; Fabrycky, Daniel C.; Setiawan, Johny; Gillon, Michaël; Jehin, Emmanuel; Triaud, Amaury; Queloz, Didier; Snellen, Ignas; Eggleton, Peter

    2014-04-01

    As part of the Binaries Are Not Always Neatly Aligned project (BANANA), we have found that the eclipsing binary CV Velorum has misaligned rotation axes. Based on our analysis of the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect, we find sky-projected spin-orbit angles of βp = -52° ± 6° and βs = 3° ± 7° for the primary and secondary stars (B2.5V + B2.5V, P = 6.9 days). We combine this information with several measurements of changing projected stellar rotation speeds (vsin i sstarf) over the last 30 yr, leading to a model in which the primary star's obliquity is ≈65°, and its spin axis precesses around the total angular momentum vector with a period of about 140 yr. The geometry of the secondary star is less clear, although a significant obliquity is also implicated by the observed time variations in the vsin i sstarf. By integrating the secular tidal evolution equations backward in time, we find that the system could have evolved from a state of even stronger misalignment similar to DI Herculis, a younger but otherwise comparable binary. Based on observations made with ESOs 2.2 m Telescopes at the La Silla Paranal Observatory under programme ID 084.C-1008 and under MPIA guaranteed time.

  15. A Systematic Approach to Explorative Scenario Analysis in Emergy Assessment with Emphasis on Resilience

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kamp, Andreas; Østergård, Hanne

    2016-01-01

    Fossil energy depletion (specifically peak oil) and climate change are imagined to profoundly affect human civilisation. This motivates assessment of resilience, a concept associated with the ability to persist and maintain function. Explorative scenarios may be used to cast light on what......-site renewable inputs, (3) slowly renewable inputs, (4) direct labour and (5) indirect labour. We consider the existing EmA indicators of biophysical efficiency (the unit emergy value, UEV), the degree of dependence on free, renewable, natural flows of energy (%R) and the degree of dependence on local inputs...... systems that rely primarily on on-site renewable resources appear less sensitive to societal changes. The significance of labour inputs varies among scenarios, and a higher percentage of labour inputs leads to increasing UEV in a Green Tech scenario but lower UEV in more radical energy decent scenarios...

  16. Correcting systematic errors in high-sensitivity deuteron polarization measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brantjes, N. P. M.; Dzordzhadze, V.; Gebel, R.; Gonnella, F.; Gray, F. E.; van der Hoek, D. J.; Imig, A.; Kruithof, W. L.; Lazarus, D. M.; Lehrach, A.; Lorentz, B.; Messi, R.; Moricciani, D.; Morse, W. M.; Noid, G. A.; Onderwater, C. J. G.; Özben, C. S.; Prasuhn, D.; Levi Sandri, P.; Semertzidis, Y. K.; da Silva e Silva, M.; Stephenson, E. J.; Stockhorst, H.; Venanzoni, G.; Versolato, O. O.

    2012-02-01

    This paper reports deuteron vector and tensor beam polarization measurements taken to investigate the systematic variations due to geometric beam misalignments and high data rates. The experiments used the In-Beam Polarimeter at the KVI-Groningen and the EDDA detector at the Cooler Synchrotron COSY at Jülich. By measuring with very high statistical precision, the contributions that are second-order in the systematic errors become apparent. By calibrating the sensitivity of the polarimeter to such errors, it becomes possible to obtain information from the raw count rate values on the size of the errors and to use this information to correct the polarization measurements. During the experiment, it was possible to demonstrate that corrections were satisfactory at the level of 10 -5 for deliberately large errors. This may facilitate the real time observation of vector polarization changes smaller than 10 -6 in a search for an electric dipole moment using a storage ring.

  17. Correcting systematic errors in high-sensitivity deuteron polarization measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brantjes, N.P.M. [Kernfysisch Versneller Instituut, University of Groningen, NL-9747AA Groningen (Netherlands); Dzordzhadze, V. [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY 11973 (United States); Gebel, R. [Institut fuer Kernphysik, Juelich Center for Hadron Physics, Forschungszentrum Juelich, D-52425 Juelich (Germany); Gonnella, F. [Physica Department of ' Tor Vergata' University, Rome (Italy); INFN-Sez. ' Roma tor Vergata,' Rome (Italy); Gray, F.E. [Regis University, Denver, CO 80221 (United States); Hoek, D.J. van der [Kernfysisch Versneller Instituut, University of Groningen, NL-9747AA Groningen (Netherlands); Imig, A. [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY 11973 (United States); Kruithof, W.L. [Kernfysisch Versneller Instituut, University of Groningen, NL-9747AA Groningen (Netherlands); Lazarus, D.M. [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY 11973 (United States); Lehrach, A.; Lorentz, B. [Institut fuer Kernphysik, Juelich Center for Hadron Physics, Forschungszentrum Juelich, D-52425 Juelich (Germany); Messi, R. [Physica Department of ' Tor Vergata' University, Rome (Italy); INFN-Sez. ' Roma tor Vergata,' Rome (Italy); Moricciani, D. [INFN-Sez. ' Roma tor Vergata,' Rome (Italy); Morse, W.M. [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY 11973 (United States); Noid, G.A. [Indiana University Cyclotron Facility, Bloomington, IN 47408 (United States); and others

    2012-02-01

    This paper reports deuteron vector and tensor beam polarization measurements taken to investigate the systematic variations due to geometric beam misalignments and high data rates. The experiments used the In-Beam Polarimeter at the KVI-Groningen and the EDDA detector at the Cooler Synchrotron COSY at Juelich. By measuring with very high statistical precision, the contributions that are second-order in the systematic errors become apparent. By calibrating the sensitivity of the polarimeter to such errors, it becomes possible to obtain information from the raw count rate values on the size of the errors and to use this information to correct the polarization measurements. During the experiment, it was possible to demonstrate that corrections were satisfactory at the level of 10{sup -5} for deliberately large errors. This may facilitate the real time observation of vector polarization changes smaller than 10{sup -6} in a search for an electric dipole moment using a storage ring.

  18. Recurrence of alveolar capillary dysplasia with misalignment of pulmonary veins in two consecutive siblings

    OpenAIRE

    Benevides, Gabriel Nuncio; Picciarelli de Lima, Patricia; Felipe-Silva, Aloisio; Lovisolo, Silvana Maria; Pereira de Melo, Ana Maria Andrello Gonçalves

    2015-01-01

    Alveolar capillary dysplasia with misalignment of pulmonary veins (ACD/MPV) is a rare, developmental lung disorder, which has been increasingly reported. This entity usually presents as neonatal persistent pulmonary hypertension that is unresponsive to treatment, and is known to be uniformly fatal. Recent discoveries in the genetic field, and intensive treatments, may change the natural course of this disease, permitting easier diagnosis and giving new hope for the dismal prognosis. The autho...

  19. Calibration of a spinner anemometer for yaw misalignment measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Friis Pedersen, Troels; Demurtas, Giorgio; Zahle, Frederik

    2015-01-01

    constant, k1, mainly affects the measurement of wind speed. The ratio between the two constants, kα = k2/k1, however, only affects the measurement of flow angles. The calibration of kα is thus a basic calibration of the spinner anemometer. Theoretical background for the non-linear calibration is derived......The spinner anemometer is an instrument for yaw misalignment measurements without the drawbacks of instruments mounted on the nacelle top. The spinner anemometer uses a non-linear conversion algorithm that converts the measured wind speeds by three sonic sensors on the spinner to horizontal wind...... from the generic spinner anemometer conversion algorithm. Five different methods were evaluated for calibration of a spinner anemometer on a 500 kW wind turbine. The first three methods used rotor yaw direction as reference angular, while the wind turbine, was yawed in and out of the wind. The fourth...

  20. Cross-wind fatigue analysis of a full scale offshore wind turbine in the case of wind–wave misalignment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koukoura, Christina; Brown, Cameron; Natarajan, Anand

    2016-01-01

    Wind–wave misalignment is often necessary to consider during the design of offshore wind turbines due to excitation of side–side vibration and the low aerodynamic damping in that direction. The measurements from a fully instrumented 3.6 MW pitch regulated-variable speed offshore wind turbine were...

  1. The Problem of Constructive Misalignment in International Business Education: A Three-Stage Integrated Approach to Enhancing Teaching and Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Shasha

    2016-01-01

    Past evidence suggests that constructive misalignment is particularly problematic in International Business (IB) education, though this paradigm has received limited research attention. Building on the literature of three independent teaching methods (threshold concept, problem-based learning, and technology-based learning), this study contributes…

  2. Application of Improved 5th-Cubature Kalman Filter in Initial Strapdown Inertial Navigation System Alignment for Large Misalignment Angles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wei; Chen, Xiyuan

    2018-02-23

    In view of the fact the accuracy of the third-degree Cubature Kalman Filter (CKF) used for initial alignment under large misalignment angle conditions is insufficient, an improved fifth-degree CKF algorithm is proposed in this paper. In order to make full use of the innovation on filtering, the innovation covariance matrix is calculated recursively by an innovative sequence with an exponent fading factor. Then a new adaptive error covariance matrix scaling algorithm is proposed. The Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) method is used for improving the numerical stability of the fifth-degree CKF in this paper. In order to avoid the overshoot caused by excessive scaling of error covariance matrix during the convergence stage, the scaling scheme is terminated when the gradient of azimuth reaches the maximum. The experimental results show that the improved algorithm has better alignment accuracy with large misalignment angles than the traditional algorithm.

  3. The importance of scenario development in meeting 40 CFR part 191

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunter, R.L.

    1988-01-01

    Scenario development and screening is a fundamental part of performance assessment, but its importance in satisfying 40 CFR Part 191 (the standard) is sometimes underestimated. The first step in scenario development in support of performance assessment for the standard's containment requirements is to identify a set of potentially disruptive events and processes. This set must be broad enough to allow the identification, as required by the standard, of those processes and events that might affect the disposal system; data can then be collected on the scenarios identified in this step. The standard also requires that releases be estimated for all significant processes and events; thus the final step in scenario development is systematically screening the scenarios, on the basis of their probabilities and consequences, to select those that are important enough to be modeled in detail. In general, a few hundred scenarios for the release of radionuclides from a nuclear-waste repository can be identified, but only a few of these can or should be modeled in detail

  4. The design of remote discharge scenario management system on EAST

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chai, W.T, E-mail: wtchai@ipp.ac.cn [Institute of Plasma Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, Anhui (China); University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui (China); Xiao, B.J [Institute of Plasma Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, Anhui (China); University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui (China); Yuan, Q.P; Zhang, R.R. [Institute of Plasma Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, Anhui (China)

    2016-11-15

    Highlights: • The remote discharge scenario management system is established on EAST, it provides some useful function for operators to manage discharge scenarios and formulate discharge schedule. • Operators can use this system to formulate discharge schedule on account of it can electing optimal scenarios automatically. • The system is not only for local user but also for remote user. • In the future, we can combine with actual discharge data and data mining technology to acquire optimal configuration, which to generate expert database and guiding experiment. - Abstract: The discharge scenarios on EAST plasma control system (PCS), characterized by different waveform parameters and different hardware requirements, will need a systematic discharge scenario management system for remote and local operators, in order to optimize storage structure and rationally manage discharge time. The remote management of discharge scenarios will require extending the functionalities of the present PCS “future shot” and “next shot” modules. Taking advantage of database technique, the operators can acquire detail information of all discharge scenarios directly without PCS user interface and search the specified scenarios by key words. In addition, the system can elect optimal scenarios automatically based on discharge schedule and plasma pulse setting for later artificial selection. To this purpose, a new remote discharge scenario management system (RDSMS) basis for Web is being conceived on EAST. The system contains a database with functions of “user management”, “scenario verification”, “prepared scenario management”, “actual discharge scenario management” and “discharge schedule management”. This paper will present the relevant conceptual design and give an account of the test results for implementation on EAST discharges.

  5. The design of remote discharge scenario management system on EAST

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chai, W.T; Xiao, B.J; Yuan, Q.P; Zhang, R.R.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • The remote discharge scenario management system is established on EAST, it provides some useful function for operators to manage discharge scenarios and formulate discharge schedule. • Operators can use this system to formulate discharge schedule on account of it can electing optimal scenarios automatically. • The system is not only for local user but also for remote user. • In the future, we can combine with actual discharge data and data mining technology to acquire optimal configuration, which to generate expert database and guiding experiment. - Abstract: The discharge scenarios on EAST plasma control system (PCS), characterized by different waveform parameters and different hardware requirements, will need a systematic discharge scenario management system for remote and local operators, in order to optimize storage structure and rationally manage discharge time. The remote management of discharge scenarios will require extending the functionalities of the present PCS “future shot” and “next shot” modules. Taking advantage of database technique, the operators can acquire detail information of all discharge scenarios directly without PCS user interface and search the specified scenarios by key words. In addition, the system can elect optimal scenarios automatically based on discharge schedule and plasma pulse setting for later artificial selection. To this purpose, a new remote discharge scenario management system (RDSMS) basis for Web is being conceived on EAST. The system contains a database with functions of “user management”, “scenario verification”, “prepared scenario management”, “actual discharge scenario management” and “discharge schedule management”. This paper will present the relevant conceptual design and give an account of the test results for implementation on EAST discharges.

  6. A novel approach to correct the coded aperture misalignment for fast neutron imaging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, F. N.; Hu, H. S., E-mail: huasi-hu@mail.xjtu.edu.cn; Wang, D. M.; Jia, J. [School of Energy and Power Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049 (China); Zhang, T. K. [Laser Fusion Research Center, CAEP, Mianyang, 621900 Sichuan (China); Jia, Q. G. [Institute of Applied Physics and Computational Mathematics, Beijing 100094 (China)

    2015-12-15

    Aperture alignment is crucial for the diagnosis of neutron imaging because it has significant impact on the coding imaging and the understanding of the neutron source. In our previous studies on the neutron imaging system with coded aperture for large field of view, “residual watermark,” certain extra information that overlies reconstructed image and has nothing to do with the source is discovered if the peak normalization is employed in genetic algorithms (GA) to reconstruct the source image. Some studies on basic properties of residual watermark indicate that the residual watermark can characterize coded aperture and can thus be used to determine the location of coded aperture relative to the system axis. In this paper, we have further analyzed the essential conditions for the existence of residual watermark and the requirements of the reconstruction algorithm for the emergence of residual watermark. A gamma coded imaging experiment has been performed to verify the existence of residual watermark. Based on the residual watermark, a correction method for the aperture misalignment has been studied. A multiple linear regression model of the position of coded aperture axis, the position of residual watermark center, and the gray barycenter of neutron source with twenty training samples has been set up. Using the regression model and verification samples, we have found the position of the coded aperture axis relative to the system axis with an accuracy of approximately 20 μm. Conclusively, a novel approach has been established to correct the coded aperture misalignment for fast neutron coded imaging.

  7. Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W. [Idaho National Engineering Lab., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    1995-12-31

    This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenarios for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios by applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained will be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic (common sense) approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities.

  8. Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W.

    1995-01-01

    This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenario for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios ab applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained well be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities

  9. Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W.

    1995-01-01

    This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenarios for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios by applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained will be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic (common sense) approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities

  10. Protective Alternatives of SMR against Extreme Threat Scenario – A Preliminary Risk Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shohet, I.M.; Ornai, D.; Gal, E.; Ronen, Y.; Vidra, M.

    2014-01-01

    The article presents a preliminary risk analysis of the main features in NPP (Nuclear Power Plant) that includes SMR - Small and Modular Reactors, given an extreme threat scenario. A review of the structure and systems of the SMR is followed by systematic definitions and analysis of the threat scenario to which a preliminary risk analysis was carried out. The article outlines the basic events caused by the referred threat scenario, which had led to possible failure mechanisms according to FTA (Fault-Tree-Analysis),critical protective circuits, and todetecting critical topics for the protection and safety of the reactor

  11. Risk assessment of complex accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kluegel, Jens-Uwe

    2012-01-01

    The use of methods of risk assessment in accidents in nuclear plants is based on an old tradition. The first consistent systematic study is considered to be the Rasmussen Study of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC, WASH-1400. Above and beyond the realm of nuclear technology, there is an extensive range of accident, risk and reliability research into technical-administrative systems. In the past, it has been this area of research which has led to the development of concepts of safety precautions of the type also introduced into nuclear technology (barrier concept, defense in depth, single-failure criterion), where they are now taken for granted as trivial concepts. Also for risk analysis, nuclear technology made use of methods (such as event and fault tree analyses) whose origins were outside the nuclear field. One area in which the use of traditional methods of probabilistic safety analysis is encountering practical problems is risk assessment of complex accident scenarios in nuclear technology. A definition is offered of the term 'complex accident scenarios' in nuclear technology. A number of problems are addressed which arise in the use of traditional PSA procedures in risk assessment of complex accident scenarios. Cases of complex accident scenarios are presented to demonstrate methods of risk assessment which allow robust results to be obtained even when traditional techniques of risk analysis are maintained as a matter of principle. These methods are based on the use of conditional risk metrics. (orig.)

  12. Standard Establishment Through Scenarios (SETS): A new technique for occupational fitness standards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blacklock, R E; Reilly, T J; Spivock, M; Newton, P S; Olinek, S M

    2015-01-01

    An objective and scientific task analysis provides the basis for establishing legally defensible Physical Employment Standards (PES), based on common and essential occupational tasks. Infrequent performance of these tasks creates challenges when developing PES based on criterion, or content validity. Develop a systematic approach using Subject Matter Experts (SME) to provide tasks with 1) an occupationally relevant scenario considered common to all personnel; 2) a minimum performance standard defined by time, distance, load or work. Examples provided here relate to the development of a new PES for the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF). SME of various experience are selected based on their eligibility criteria. SME are required to define a reasonable scenario for each task from personal experience, provide occupational performance requirements of the scenario in sub-groups, and discuss and agree by consensus vote on the final standard based on the definition of essential. A common and essential task for the CAF is detailed as a case example of process application. Techniques to avoid common SME rating errors are discussed and advantages to the method described. The SETS method was developed as a systematic approach to setting occupational performance standards and qualifying information from SME.

  13. A novel principal component analysis for spatially misaligned multivariate air pollution data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jandarov, Roman A; Sheppard, Lianne A; Sampson, Paul D; Szpiro, Adam A

    2017-01-01

    We propose novel methods for predictive (sparse) PCA with spatially misaligned data. These methods identify principal component loading vectors that explain as much variability in the observed data as possible, while also ensuring the corresponding principal component scores can be predicted accurately by means of spatial statistics at locations where air pollution measurements are not available. This will make it possible to identify important mixtures of air pollutants and to quantify their health effects in cohort studies, where currently available methods cannot be used. We demonstrate the utility of predictive (sparse) PCA in simulated data and apply the approach to annual averages of particulate matter speciation data from national Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulatory monitors.

  14. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario: from Publication to Implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, S.; Jones, L.; Miller, K.; Wilson, R. I.; Burkett, E. R.; Bwarie, J.; Campbell, N. M.; Johnson, L. A.; Long, K.; Lynett, P. J.; Perry, S. C.; Plumlee, G. S.; Porter, K.; Real, C. R.; Ritchie, L. A.; Wein, A. M.; Whitmore, P.; Wood, N. J.

    2014-12-01

    The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. We presented the likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. The Tsunami Scenario process is being evaluated by the University of Colorado's Natural Hazards Center; this is the first time that a USGS scenario of this scale has been formally and systematically evaluated by an external party. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario was publicly introduced in September, 2013, through a series of regional workshops in California that brought together emergency managers, maritime authorities, first responders, elected officials and staffers, the business sector, state agencies, local media, scientific partners, and special districts such as utilities (http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1170/). In March, 2014, NOAA's annual tsunami warning exercise, PACIFEX, was based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. Many groups conducted exercises associated with PACIFEX including the State of Washington and several counties in California. San Francisco had the most comprehensive exercise with a 3-day functional exercise based on the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario. In addition, the National Institutes of Health ran an exercise at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in April, 2014, building on the Tsunami Scenario, focusing on the recovery phase and adding a refinery fire. The benefits and lessons learned include: 1) stimulating dialogue among practitioners to solve problems; 2) seeing groups add extra components to their exercises that best address their

  15. Investigation of image distortion due to MCP electronic readout misalignment and correction via customized GUI application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitucci, G.; Minniti, T.; Tremsin, A. S.; Kockelmann, W.; Gorini, G.

    2018-04-01

    The MCP-based neutron counting detector is a novel device that allows high spatial resolution and time-resolved neutron radiography and tomography with epithermal, thermal and cold neutrons. Time resolution is possible by the high readout speeds of ~ 1200 frames/sec, allowing high resolution event counting with relatively high rates without spatial resolution degradation due to event overlaps. The electronic readout is based on a Timepix sensor, a CMOS pixel readout chip developed at CERN. Currently, a geometry of a quad Timepix detector is used with an active format of 28 × 28 mm2 limited by the size of the Timepix quad (2 × 2 chips) readout. Measurements of a set of high-precision micrometers test samples have been performed at the Imaging and Materials Science & Engineering (IMAT) beamline operating at the ISIS spallation neutron source (U.K.). The aim of these experiments was the full characterization of the chip misalignment and of the gaps between each pad in the quad Timepix sensor. Such misalignment causes distortions of the recorded shape of the sample analyzed. We present in this work a post-processing image procedure that considers and corrects these effects. Results of the correction will be discussed and the efficacy of this method evaluated.

  16. BALL KINEMATICS IN FINE POLISHING BETWEEN MISALIGNED DISKS IN CONIC OPENINGS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. G. Shchetnikovich

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper considers ball kinematics in polishing between misaligned disks rotating with equal angular velocity; one of these disks has conic openings. Analytical dependences have been obtained for calculation of an angular velocity and ball sliding speed in the conic opening. It has been revealed that at a constant contact of a ball with elastic coating of a flat disk and absence of vibrations in the technological system an instantaneous axis of ball rotation does not change its position in the moving ball. It has been ascertained that when a ball is in contact with a flat disk having elastic coating with grooves changes in the position of ball rotation instantaneous axis have a regular character and do not depend on vibrations in the technological system.

  17. A familial case of alveolar capillary dysplasia with misalignment of pulmonary veins supports paternal imprinting of FOXF1 in human

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alveolar capillary dysplasia with misalignment of pulmonary veins (ACD/MPV) is a rare developmental lung disorder that is uniformly lethal. Affected infants die within the first few weeks of their life despite aggressive treatment, although a few cases of late manifestation and longer survival have ...

  18. Constraining sleptons at the LHC in a supersymmetric low-scale seesaw scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cerna-Velazco, Nhell; Jones-Perez, Joel [Pontificia Universidad Catolica del Peru, Seccion Fisica, Departamento de Ciencias, Lima (Peru); Faber, Thomas; Porod, Werner [Uni Wuerzburg, Institut fuer Theoretische Physik und Astrophysik, Wuerzburg (Germany)

    2017-10-15

    We consider a scenario inspired by natural supersymmetry, where neutrino data is explained within a low-scale seesaw scenario. We extend the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model by adding light right-handed neutrinos and their superpartners, the R-sneutrinos, and consider the lightest neutralinos to be higgsino-like. We consider the possibilities of having either an R-sneutrino or a higgsino as lightest supersymmetric particle. Assuming that squarks and gauginos are heavy, we systematically evaluate the bounds on slepton masses due to existing LHC data. (orig.)

  19. Moduli vacuum misalignment and precise predictions in string inflation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cicoli, Michele [Dipartimento di Fisica ed Astronomia, Università di Bologna,via Irnerio 46, 40126 Bologna (Italy); INFN sezione di Bologna,viale Berti Pichat 6/2, 40127 Bologna (Italy); Abdus Salam ICTP,Strada Costiera 11, Trieste 34014 (Italy); Dutta, Koushik [Theory Division, Saha Institute of Nuclear Physics,1/AF Salt Lake, Kolkata 700064 (India); Maharana, Anshuman [Harish Chandra Research Intitute,Chattnag Road, Jhunsi, Allahabad 211019 (India); Quevedo, Fernando [Abdus Salam ICTP,Strada Costiera 11, Trieste 34014 (Italy); DAMTP, University of Cambridge,Wilberforce Road, Cambridge, CB3 0WA (United Kingdom)

    2016-08-03

    The predictions for all the cosmological observables of any inflationary model depend on the number of e-foldings which is sensitive to the post-inflationary history of the universe. In string models the generic presence of light moduli leads to a late-time period of matter domination which lowers the required number of e-foldings and, in turn, modifies the exact predictions of any inflationary model. In this paper we compute exactly the shift of the number of e-foldings in Kähler moduli inflation which is determined by the magnitude of the moduli initial displacement caused by vacuum misalignment and the moduli decay rates. We find that the preferred number of e-foldings gets reduced from 50 to 45, causing a modification of the spectral index at the percent level. Our results illustrate the importance of understanding the full post-inflationary evolution of the universe in order to derive precise predictions in string inflation. To perform this task it is crucial to work in a setting where there is good control over moduli stabilisation.

  20. Moduli vacuum misalignment and precise predictions in string inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cicoli, Michele; Dutta, Koushik; Maharana, Anshuman; Quevedo, Fernando

    2016-01-01

    The predictions for all the cosmological observables of any inflationary model depend on the number of e-foldings which is sensitive to the post-inflationary history of the universe. In string models the generic presence of light moduli leads to a late-time period of matter domination which lowers the required number of e-foldings and, in turn, modifies the exact predictions of any inflationary model. In this paper we compute exactly the shift of the number of e-foldings in Kähler moduli inflation which is determined by the magnitude of the moduli initial displacement caused by vacuum misalignment and the moduli decay rates. We find that the preferred number of e-foldings gets reduced from 50 to 45, causing a modification of the spectral index at the percent level. Our results illustrate the importance of understanding the full post-inflationary evolution of the universe in order to derive precise predictions in string inflation. To perform this task it is crucial to work in a setting where there is good control over moduli stabilisation.

  1. Scenario development methodologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eng, T.; Hudson, J.; Stephansson, O.

    1994-11-01

    In the period 1981-1994, SKB has studied several methodologies to systematize and visualize all the features, events and processes (FEPs) that can influence a repository for radioactive waste in the future. All the work performed is based on the terminology and basic findings in the joint SKI/SKB work on scenario development presented in the SKB Technical Report 89-35. The methodologies studied are a) Event tree analysis, b) Influence diagrams and c) Rock Engineering Systems (RES) matrices. Each one of the methodologies is explained in this report as well as examples of applications. One chapter is devoted to a comparison between the two most promising methodologies, namely: Influence diagrams and the RES methodology. In conclusion a combination of parts of the Influence diagram and the RES methodology is likely to be a promising approach. 26 refs

  2. Renewable energy technology portfolio planning with scenario analysis: A case study for Taiwan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, T.-Y.; Yu, Oliver S.; Hsu, George Jyh-yih; Hsu, Fang-Ming; Sung, W.-N.

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents the results of a case study of applying a systematic and proven process of technology portfolio planning with the use of scenario analysis to renewable energy developments in Taiwan. The planning process starts with decision values of technology development based on a survey of society leaders. It then generates, based on expert opinions and literature search, a set of major technology alternatives, which in this study include: wind energy, photovoltaic, bio-energy, solar thermal power, ocean energy, and geothermal energy. Through a committee of technical experts with diversified professional backgrounds, the process in this study next constructs three scenarios ('Season in the Sun', 'More Desire than Energy', and 'Castle in the Air') to encompass future uncertainties in the relationships between the technology alternatives and the decision values. Finally, through a second committee of professionals, the process assesses the importance and risks of these alternative technologies and develops a general strategic plan for the renewable energy technology portfolio that is responsive and robust for the future scenarios. The most important contributions of this paper are the clear description of the systematic process of technology portfolio planning and scenario analysis, the detailed demonstration of their application through a case study on the renewable energy development in Taiwan, and the valuable results and insights gained from the application.

  3. Risk assessment of mitigated domino scenarios in process facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Landucci, Gabriele; Necci, Amos; Antonioni, Giacomo; Argenti, Francesca; Cozzani, Valerio

    2017-01-01

    The propagation of accidents among process units may lead to severe cascading events or domino effects with catastrophic consequences. Prevention, mitigation and management of domino scenarios is of utmost importance and may be achieved in industrial facilities through the adoption of multiple safety layers. The present study was aimed at developing an innovative methodology to address the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of domino scenarios accounting for the presence and role of safety barriers. Based on the expected performance of safety barriers, a dedicated event tree analysis allowed the identification and the assessment of the frequencies of the different end-point events deriving from unmitigated and partially mitigated domino chains. Specific criteria were introduced in consequence analysis to consider the mitigation effects of end-point scenarios deriving from safety barriers. Individual and societal risk indexes were calculated accounting for safety barriers and the mitigated scenarios that may result from their actions. The application of the methodology to case-studies of industrial interest proved the importance of introducing a specific systematic and quantitative analysis of safety barrier performance when addressing escalation leading to domino effect. - Highlights: • A methodology was developed to account for safety barrier performance in escalation prevention. • The methodology allows quantitative assessment accounting for safety barrier performance. • A detailed analysis of transient mitigated scenarios is allowed by the developed procedure. • The procedure allows accounting for safety barrier performance in QRA of domino scenarios. • An important reduction in the risk due to domino scenarios is evidenced when considering safety barriers.

  4. Towards a user's guide to scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boerjeson, Lena; Hoejer, Mattias; Dreborg, Karl-Henrik; Finnveden, Goeran [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Environmental Strategies Research - fms; Ekvall, Tomas [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Dept. of Energy and Environment

    2005-11-01

    Futures studies consist of a vast variation of studies and approaches. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of for what purposes scenarios are useful and what methods and procedures are useful for furthering these purposes. We present a scenario typology with an aim to better suit the context in which the scenarios are used. The scenario typology is combined with a new way of looking at scenario techniques, i.e. practical methods and procedures for scenario development. Finally, we look at the usefulness of scenarios in the light of the scenario typology and the scenario techniques. As a start, we distinguish between three main categories of scenario studies. The classification is based on the principal questions we believe a user may want to pose about the future. The resolution is then increased by letting each category contain two different scenario types. These are distinguished by different angles of approach of the questions defining the categories. The first question, What will happen?, is responded to by Predictive scenarios. In fact, the response to a question like this will always be conditional, e.g. of a stable and peaceful world, or by a certain continuous development of some kind. We have utilized this fact when defining the two predictive scenario types, Forecasts and What-if scenarios. The second question, What can happen?, is responded to by Explorative scenarios. The scenarios are thus explorations of what might happen in the future, regardless of beliefs of what is likely to happen or opinions of what is desirable. This category is further divided into external and strategic scenarios. The final question, How can a specific target be reached?, is responded to by Normative scenarios. Such studies are explicitly normative, since they take a target as a starting point. They are often directed towards how the target could be reached. This category is divided into preserving and transforming scenarios. If the user wants to

  5. NEW CONCEPTUAL SOLUTIONS FOR ELASTIC COUPLINGS WITH HIGH CAPABILITY COMPENSATION OF MISALIGNMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DOBRE Daniel

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper develops a problem of great interest in power transmissions, very widely applied in practice: the use of elastic couplings having an adequate level of torque transmission and a reasonable axial and angular misalignment capability based on elastic deformations of specific flexible elements. A characterization (discussion of two elastic couplings characteristic for the area of compensative couplings is offered. An innovative principle of elastic coupling with reinforced flexible elements is proposed. The mechanical strength analysis for both elastic couplings (with spoked metallic membranes and reinforced elastic elements in the case of existing axial and angular deviations is discussed also. It is revealed that the study of these couplings based on elastic deformations is of great theoretical and practical importance today.

  6. Heat flux distribution and gyro-radius smoothing effect on misaligned CFC tile in the Tore Supra tokamak

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Corre, Y.; Dejarnac, Renaud; Gardarein, J.-L.; Gaspar, J.; Escourbiac, F.; Gauthier, E.; Gunn, J. P.; Komm, Michael; Lipa, M.; Loarer, T.; Missirlian, M.; Rigollet, F.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 463, August (2015), s. 832-836 ISSN 0022-3115. [PLASMA-SURFACE INTERACTIONS 21: International Conference on Plasma-Surface Interactions in Controlled Fusion Devices. Kanazawa, 26.05.2014-30.05.2014] Institutional support: RVO:61389021 Keywords : Heat loads * IR thermography * misalignment * limiter Subject RIV: JF - Nuclear Energetics OBOR OECD: Nuclear related engineering Impact factor: 2.199, year: 2015 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S002231151400720X

  7. Sensitivity of 3D Dose Verification to Multileaf Collimator Misalignments in Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy of Spinal Tumor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xin-Ye, Ni; Ren, Lei; Yan, Hui; Yin, Fang-Fang

    2016-12-01

    This study aimed to detect the sensitivity of Delt 4 on ordinary field multileaf collimator misalignments, system misalignments, random misalignments, and misalignments caused by gravity of the multileaf collimator in stereotactic body radiation therapy. (1) Two field sizes, including 2.00 cm (X) × 6.00 cm (Y) and 7.00 cm (X) × 6.00 cm (Y), were set. The leaves of X1 and X2 in the multileaf collimator were simultaneously opened. (2) Three cases of stereotactic body radiation therapy of spinal tumor were used. The dose of the planning target volume was 1800 cGy with 3 fractions. The 4 types to be simulated included (1) the leaves of X1 and X2 in the multileaf collimator were simultaneously opened, (2) only X1 of the multileaf collimator and the unilateral leaf were opened, (3) the leaves of X1 and X2 in the multileaf collimator were randomly opened, and (4) gravity effect was simulated. The leaves of X1 and X2 in the multileaf collimator shifted to the same direction. The difference between the corresponding 3-dimensional dose distribution measured by Delt 4 and the dose distribution in the original plan made in the treatment planning system was analyzed with γ index criteria of 3.0 mm/3.0%, 2.5 mm/2.5%, 2.0 mm/2.0%, 2.5 mm/1.5%, and 1.0 mm/1.0%. (1) In the field size of 2.00 cm (X) × 6.00 cm (Y), the γ pass rate of the original was 100% with 2.5 mm/2.5% as the statistical standard. The pass rate decreased to 95.9% and 89.4% when the X1 and X2 directions of the multileaf collimator were opened within 0.3 and 0.5 mm, respectively. In the field size of 7.00 (X) cm × 6.00 (Y) cm with 1.5 mm/1.5% as the statistical standard, the pass rate of the original was 96.5%. After X1 and X2 of the multileaf collimator were opened within 0.3 mm, the pass rate decreased to lower than 95%. The pass rate was higher than 90% within the 3 mm opening. (2) For spinal tumor, the change in the planning target volume V 18 under various modes calculated using treatment planning system

  8. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants

  9. Scenario Development for Trgovska Gora Shallow Land Facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skanata, D.; Medakovic, S.; Lokner, V.; Levanat, I.

    2002-01-01

    Safety assessments, either preliminary or final, consist of a qualitative and a quantitative part. The qualitative part of the assessment implies a selection of relevant scenarios to be analyzed, while the quantitative part of the assessment consists of their mathematical modeling. This work is dealing with the qualitative part of safety assessment concerning a specific radioactive waste disposal system, i.e., the shallow land facility situated on the macrolocation Trgovska gora. This article has as its purpose a brief presentation of the ISAM methodology application results (Improvement of Safety Assessment Methodologies for Near Surface Radioactive Waste Facilities;), a methodology developed within the framework of a project of the same name, organized by the IAEA. The above mentioned methodology is based on the development of the so-called FEP list (Features, Events, Process), on selection procedure of the FEP list, specifically regarding particular criteria defined in advance, and on application of systematic methods of selecting relevant scenarios (in this case the matrix of interactions method has been applied). The main aim and purpose of a methodology based on the analysis of FEPs (identification, classification, selection, construction of the matrix of interactions) consists of observing and documenting all the features, events and processes due to be taken into consideration while assessing safety of a particular radioactive waste disposal system. In this connection, by radioactive waste disposal system we mean a system consisting of radioactive waste and engineer features (barriers), geological environment within which the disposal site is located, surface-environment (soil, sediments, vegetation, etc.) and human population near the disposal site. The final step of the application of this methodology consists of generating the scenario using the matrix of interactions. So, for shallow land facility situated on the macrolocation Trgovska gora, applying

  10. Rogeaulito: A World Energy Scenario Modeling Tool for Transparent Energy System Thinking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benichou, Léo; Mayr, Sebastian

    2014-01-01

    Rogeaulito is a world energy model for scenario building developed by the European think tank The Shift Project. It’s a tool to explore world energy choices from a very long-term and systematic perspective. As a key feature and novelty it computes energy supply and demand independently from each other revealing potentially missing energy supply by 2100. It is further simple to use, didactic, and open source. As such, it targets a broad user group and advocates for reproducibility and transparency in scenario modeling as well as model-based learning. Rogeaulito applies an engineering approach using disaggregated data in a spreadsheet model.

  11. Rogeaulito: A World Energy Scenario Modeling Tool for Transparent Energy System Thinking

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benichou, Léo, E-mail: leo.benichou@theshiftproject.org [The Shift Project, Paris (France); Mayr, Sebastian, E-mail: communication@theshiftproject.org [Paris School of International Affairs, Sciences Po., Paris (France)

    2014-01-13

    Rogeaulito is a world energy model for scenario building developed by the European think tank The Shift Project. It’s a tool to explore world energy choices from a very long-term and systematic perspective. As a key feature and novelty it computes energy supply and demand independently from each other revealing potentially missing energy supply by 2100. It is further simple to use, didactic, and open source. As such, it targets a broad user group and advocates for reproducibility and transparency in scenario modeling as well as model-based learning. Rogeaulito applies an engineering approach using disaggregated data in a spreadsheet model.

  12. Improving risk assessment by defining consistent and reliable system scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Mazzorana

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available During the entire procedure of risk assessment for hydrologic hazards, the selection of consistent and reliable scenarios, constructed in a strictly systematic way, is fundamental for the quality and reproducibility of the results. However, subjective assumptions on relevant impact variables such as sediment transport intensity on the system loading side and weak point response mechanisms repeatedly cause biases in the results, and consequently affect transparency and required quality standards. Furthermore, the system response of mitigation measures to extreme event loadings represents another key variable in hazard assessment, as well as the integral risk management including intervention planning. Formative Scenario Analysis, as a supplement to conventional risk assessment methods, is a technique to construct well-defined sets of assumptions to gain insight into a specific case and the potential system behaviour. By two case studies, carried out (1 to analyse sediment transport dynamics in a torrent section equipped with control measures, and (2 to identify hazards induced by woody debris transport at hydraulic weak points, the applicability of the Formative Scenario Analysis technique is presented. It is argued that during scenario planning in general and with respect to integral risk management in particular, Formative Scenario Analysis allows for the development of reliable and reproducible scenarios in order to design more specifically an application framework for the sustainable assessment of natural hazards impact. The overall aim is to optimise the hazard mapping and zoning procedure by methodologically integrating quantitative and qualitative knowledge.

  13. Misalignment of Lava Flows from Topographic Slope Directions Reveals Late Amazonian Deformation at Arsia Mons, Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waring, B. A.; Chadwick, J.; McGovern, P. J., Jr.; Tucker, W.

    2017-12-01

    Arsia Mons is the southernmost of the three large Tharsis Montes near the equator of Mars and one of the largest volcanoes in the solar system. The main edifice of Arsia is about 440 km in diameter, the summit is over 9 km above the surrounding plains and has a pronounced 110 km caldera. Like the other Tharsis volcanoes, Arsia has a large, Late Amazonian glacial deposit on its NW flank. Previous crater retention studies for lava flows on Arsia have shown that the volcano experienced significant volcanic activity in the past 200 Ma. In this study, numerous long (>25 km), thin lava flows on the plains surrounding Arsia were mapped and used as indicators of the topographic slope direction at the time of their emplacement. The azimuthal orientation of each flow was compared with the present-day slope directions on the surrounding plains, derived from Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) topographic data. The results reveal regions around Arsia where the flows no longer conform to the topography, indicating deformation in the time since the flows where emplaced. In a region of Daedalia Planum to the SE of Arsia, modern slope directions adjacent to 40 long lava flows are consistently misaligned from the paleo-slopes indicated by the lava flow orientations, with an angular offset that averages 7.2° in the clockwise direction. Crater size-frequency measurements for these tilted plains using CraterStats software indicate that the deformation responsible for the misaligned flows took place since 330 ± 10 Ma. Conversely, part of Daedalia Planum to the southwest of Arsia is younger, with a crater retention age of 160 ± 6 Ma, and this area shows no consistent flow-topography misalignments. These observations suggest that extensive regional deformation occurred between the two dates, consistent with other evidence for significant volcanism at Arsia in the Late Amazonian at about 200 Ma. Geophysical modelling using the finite element program COMSOL Multiphysics is planned to

  14. The Substellar Companion ROXs12 B: Near-Infrared Spectrum, System Architecture, and Spin-Orbit Misalignment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowler, Brendan; Kraus, Adam L.; Bryan, Marta; Knutson, Heather; Brogi, Matteo; Rizzuto, Aaron; Mace, Gregory N.; Vanderburg, Andrew; Liu, Michael C.; Hillenbrand, Lynne; Cieza, Lucas

    2018-01-01

    ROXs 12 B is a substellar companion near the deuterium-burning limit orbiting a young star in Ophiuchus/Upper Scorpius. We present moderate-resolution near-infrared spectroscopy of this little-studied object, which shows clear evidence of low surface gravity and youth. Although ROXs 12 B does not possess obvious signs of a circumplanetary disk, we find that at least half of young (alignment in this system. The rotation axis of ROXs 12 A and the orbital axis of ROXs 12 B are likely misaligned, suggesting this companion formed more akin to fragmenting binary stars than planets in an equatorial disk.

  15. Systematic approach to scenario development using FEP analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bailey, L.E.E.; Lever, D.A.

    2001-01-01

    UK regulatory requirements require that the 'assessed radiological risk ... to a representative member of the potentially exposed group at greatest risk should be consistent with a risk target of 10 -6 per year' and that risks should be 'summed over all situations that could give rise to exposure to the group'. It is a further requirement that a repository performance assessment provides a 'comprehensive record of the judgements and assumptions on which the risk assessments are based'. In order to meet these requirements, Nirex, working with AEA Technology, has developed an approach to performance assessment based on the identification and analysis of features, events and processes (FEPs). The objectives of the approach are to provide a comprehensive, traceable and clear presentation of a performance assessment for a deep geological radioactive waste repository. The approach to scenario development is fundamental to the overall Nirex strategy for performance assessment, eventually leading to a repository safety case for regulatory submission. This paper outlines the main concepts of the approach, illustrated with examples of work undertaken by Nirex to demonstrate its practicality. Due to the current status of the Nirex repository programme, the approach has not yet been used to conduct a full performance assessment of a repository located at a specific site. (authors)

  16. Dechanneling measurements of defect depth profiles and effective cross-channel distribution of misaligned atoms in ion irradiated gold

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pronko, P.P.

    1975-01-01

    Defect depth profiles for self ion and He + irradiated gold are obtained from single and multiple scatter dechanneling analysis in single crystal gold films. Quantitative defect densities are obtained through use of atomic scattering cross sections. Integral damage profiles are extracted from the dechanneling spectra and subsequently differentiated to yield the volume concentration of defects as a function of depth. Results from the self ion irradiations suggest that incident ions produce defect distributions across depths much greater than predicted by random stopping theory. This is in agreement with TEM observations of others. Comparison of the experimental profiles is made with theoretical vacancy distributions predicted by defect diffusion in a radiation environment. Similarities are observed for the low fluence irradiations suggesting that profile characteristics may be controlled by rapid migration and loss of interstitials to the film surfaces during irradiation. Information on the across-channel distribution of misaligned atoms in the damaged films is obtained with the steady increase of transverse energy model applied to the dechanneling spectra. A predominance of slight misalignment is observed with no contribution to dechanneling coming from atoms displaced significantly close to the center of the channels. This is in keeping with what is expected for crystal distortions caused by the strain fields associated with vacancy cluster defects

  17. Dechanneling measurements of defect depth profiles and effective cross-channel distribution of misaligned atoms in ion-irradiated gold

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pronko, P.P.

    1976-01-01

    Defect depth profiles for self-ion and He + irradiated gold are obtained from single and multiple scatter dechanneling analysis in single-crystal gold films. Quantitative defect densities are obtained through use of atomic-scattering cross sections. Integral damage profiles are extracted from the dechanneling spectra and subsequently differentiated to yield the volume concentration of defects as a function of depth. Results from the self-ion irradiations suggest that incident ions produce defect distributions across depths much greater than predicted by random stopping theory. This is in agreement with TEM observations of others. Comparison of the experimental profiles is made with theoretical vacancy distributions predicted by defect diffusion in a radiation environment. Similarities are observed for the low-fluence irradiations, suggesting that profile characteristics may be controlled by rapid migration and loss of interstitials to the film surfaces during irradiation. Information on the across-channel distribution of misaligned atoms in the damaged films is obtained with the steady increase of transverse energy model. A predominance of slight misalignment is observed with no contribution to dechanneling coming from atoms displaced significantly close to the center of the channels. This is in keeping with what is expected for crystal distortions caused by the strain fields associated with vacancy cluster defects. (Auth.)

  18. Magnet Misalignment Studies for the Front-end of the Neutrino Factory

    CERN Document Server

    Prior, G; Stratakis, D; Neuffer, D; Snopok, P; Rogers, C

    2013-01-01

    In the Neutrino Factory front-end the muon beam coming from the interaction of a high-power (4 MW) proton beam on a mercury jet target is transformed through a buncher, a phase rotator and an ionization cooling channel before entering the downstream acceleration system. The muon front-end channel is densely packed with solenoid magnets, normal conducting radio-frequency cavities and absorber windows for the cooling section. The tolerance to the misalignment of the different components has to be determined in order on one hand to set the limits beyond which the performance of the front-end channel would be degraded; on the other hand to optimize the design and assembly of the front-end cells such that the component alignment can be checked and corrected for where crucial for the performance of the channel. In this paper we show the results of some of the simulations of the frontend channel performance where the magnetic field direction has been altered compared to the baseline.

  19. Series elastic actuation of an elbow rehabilitation exoskeleton with axis misalignment adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Kuan-Yi; Su, Yin-Yu; Yu, Ying-Lung; Lin, Kuei-You; Lan, Chao-Chieh

    2017-07-01

    Powered exoskeletons can facilitate rehabilitation of patients with upper limb disabilities. Designs using rotary motors usually result in bulky exoskeletons to reduce the problem of moving inertia. This paper presents a new linearly actuated elbow exoskeleton that consists of a slider crank mechanism and a linear motor. The linear motor is placed beside the upper arm and closer to shoulder joint. Thus better inertia properties can be achieved while lightweight and compactness are maintained. A passive joint is introduced to compensate for the exoskeleton-elbow misalignment and intersubject size variation. A linear series elastic actuator (SEA) is proposed to obtain accurate force and impedance control at the exoskeleton-elbow interface. Bidirectional actuation between exoskeleton and forearm is verified, which is required for various rehabilitation processes. We expect this exoskeleton can provide a means of robot-aided elbow rehabilitation.

  20. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

    2014-04-01

    Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

  1. Rogeaulito: a world energy scenario modeling tool for transparent energy system thinking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Léo eBenichou

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Rogeaulito is a world energy model for scenario building developed by the European think tank The Shift Project. It’s a tool to explore world energy choices from a very long-term and systematic perspective. As a key feature and novelty it computes energy supply and demand independently from each other revealing potentially missing energy supply by 2100. It is further simple to use, didactic and open source. As such, it targets a broad user group and advocates for reproducibility and transparency in scenario modeling as well as model-based learning. Rogeaulito applies an engineering approach using disaggregated data in a spreadsheet model.

  2. Numerical investigation of optimal yaw misalignment and collective pitch angle for load imbalance reduction of rigid and flexible HAWT blades under sheared inflow

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, Min-Soo; Cha, Myung-Chan; Kim, Sang-Woo; Lee, In

    2015-01-01

    Wind shear can strongly influence the cyclic loading on horizontal axis wind turbine blades. These load fluctuation causes a variation of power output and introduces fatigue load. Thus, individual pitch controllers have been developed that are focused on the load alleviations, however, comes at a price of actuator requirements for control. Moreover, these controllers are unable to apply to already existing wind turbines with active yaw and collective pitch control system. Therefore, the investigations for minimizing load imbalance through the adjustments of yaw misalignment and collective pitch angle are implemented for the rigid and flexible blades under the sheared inflow. By applying the optimization process based on a sequential quadratic programming approach, the optimal yaw and pitch angle can be estimated. Then, the numerical simulations for predicting the performance are performed. The results showed that the fluctuation range of the root flapwise bending moment for the rigid blades can be reduced by 84.5%, whereas the vibratory bending moment for the flexible blades can be reduced by up to approximately 82.4% in the best case. Therefore, the magnitudes of load imbalance can be minimized by the adjustment of the optimal yaw misalignment and collective pitch angle without any power loss. - Highlights: • We propose a novel method for the reduction of load imbalance under sheared inflow. • We estimate optimal yaw misalignment and collective pitch angle through optimization. • Numerical results of performance are predicted for rigid and flexible blades. • By applying optimal angles, load variations are reduced without any power loss

  3. Scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

    2011-03-01

    In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

  4. Indirect health costs in ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawalec, Paweł; Malinowski, Krzysztof Piotr

    2015-04-01

    The aim of this systematic review was to collect all current data on indirect costs related to inflammatory bowel disease as well as assessing homogeneity and comparability, and conducting a meta-analysis. Costs were collected using databases from Medline, Embase and Centre for Reviews and Dissemination databases, then average annual cost per patient was calculated and expressed in 2013-rate USD using the consumer price index and purchasing power parity (scenario 1) and then adjusted to specific gross domestic product (scenario 2) to make them comparable. The studies were then included in quantitative synthesis using the meta-analysis and bootstrap methods. This systematic review was carried out and reported in accordance with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses statement. From 18 publications, overall annual indirect costs per patient as a result of the quantitative synthesis among all studies eligible for meta-analysis ranged from US$2425.01-US$9622.15 depending on the scenario and model used for analysis. The cost of presenteeism was assessed in only two studies. Considering heterogeneity among all identified studies random-effect model presented the most accurate results of meta-analysis equal to US$7189.27 and US$9622.15 per patient per year for scenario 1 and scenario 2, respectively. This systematic review revealed the existence of a relatively small number of studies that reported on the great economic burden of the disease upon society. A great variety of methodologies and cost components resulted in a very large discrepancy in indirect costs and made meta-analysis difficult to perform, so two scenarios were considered and meta-analysis conducted in subgroups to make data more comparable.

  5. Development of Digital Mock-Up for the Assessment of Dismantling Scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Sung-Kyun; Park, Hee-Sung; Lee, Kune-Woo; Jung, Chong-Hun

    2008-01-01

    As the number of superannuated research reactors and nuclear power plants increase, dismantling nuclear power facilities has become a big issue. However, decommissioning a nuclear facility is still a costly and possibly hazardous task. So prior to an actual decommission, what should be done foremost is to establish a proper procedure. Due to the fact that a significant difference in cost, exposure to a radiation, and safety might occur, a proper procedure is imperative for the entire engineering process. The purpose of this paper is to develop a system for evaluating the decommissioning scenarios logically and systematically. So a digital mockup system with functions such as a dismantling schedule, decommissioning costs, wastes, worker's exposure dose, and a radiation distribution was developed. Also on the basis of the quantitative information calculated from a DMU system and the data evaluated by decommissioning experts about qualitatively evaluating the items, the best decommissioning scenarios were established by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method. Finally, the DMU was implemented in the thermal column of KRR-1 and adequate scenarios were provided after comparing and analyzing the two scenarios. In this paper, we developed the virtual environment of KRR-1 by using computer graphic technology and simulating the dismantling processes. The data-computing modules were also developed for quantitatively comparing the decommissioning scenarios. The decommissioning DMU system was integrated with both the VE system and the data-computing modules. In addition, we presented a decision-making method for selecting the best decommissioning scenario through the AHP. So the scenarios can be evaluated logically and quantitatively through the decommissioning DMU. As an implementation of the AHP, the plasma cutting scenario and the nibbler cutting scenario of the thermal column were prioritized. The fact that the plasma cutting scenario ranked the better than the

  6. Attributes Of Quality Scenarios/Scenario Sets Used In Software Requirements Elicitation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Braun, Kimberly

    1997-01-01

    .... This thesis examines scenarios used in software requirements elicitation. Many different definitions, formats, and ideas exist on scenarios, but no thorough work has been done on what makes a good, quality scenario and scenario set...

  7. Biotin-deficient diet induces chromosome misalignment and spindle defects in mouse oocytes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsuji, Ai; Nakamura, Toshinobu; Shibata, Katsumi

    2015-01-01

    Increased abnormal oocytes due to meiotic chromosome misalignment and spindle defects lead to elevated rates of infertility, miscarriage, and trisomic conceptions. Here, we investigated the effect of biotin deficiency on oocyte quality. Three-week-old female ICR mice were fed a biotin-deficient or control diet (0, 0.004 g biotin/kg diet) for 21 days. On day 22, these mouse oocytes were analyzed by immunofluorescence. Due to biotin, undernutrition increased the frequency of abnormal oocytes (the biotin deficient vs. control: 40 vs. 16%). Next, the remaining mice in the biotin-deficient group were fed a control or biotin-deficient diet from day 22 to 42. Although biotin nutritional status in the recovery group was restored, the frequency of abnormal oocytes in the recovery group was still higher than that in the control group (48 vs. 18%). Our results indicate that steady, sufficient biotin intake is required for the production of high-quality oocytes in mice.

  8. Spectral function calculation of angle wakes, wake moments, and misalignment wakes for the SLAC Damped Detuned Structures (DDS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, R.M.; Miller, R.H.; Kroll, N.M.

    1997-05-01

    Transverse wake functions so far reported for the SLAC DDS have been limited to those caused by uniform offset of the drive beam in a straight perfectly aligned structure. The complete description of the betatron oscillations of wake coupled bunches requires an array of wake functions, referred to as moments. Modifications of these arrays induced by structure misalignments are also of interest. In this paper we express the array elements in terms of a spectral function array. Examples are given based upon DDS1

  9. Scenario analysis for the postclosure assessment of the Canadian concept for nuclear fuel waste disposal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goodwin, B W; Stephens, M E; Davison, C C; Johnson, L H; Zach, R

    1994-12-01

    AECL Research has developed and evaluated a concept for disposal of Canada`s nuclear fuel waste involving deep underground disposal of the waste in intrusive igneous rock of the Canadian Shield. The postclosure assessment of this concept focusses on the effects on human health and the environment due to potential contaminant releases into the biosphere after the disposal vault is closed. Both radiotoxic and chemically toxic contaminants are considered. One of the steps in the postclosure assessment process is scenario analysis. Scenario analysis identifies factors that could affect the performance of the disposal system and groups these factors into scenarios that require detailed quantitative evaluation. This report documents a systematic procedure for scenario analysis that was developed for the postclosure assessment and then applied to the study of a hypothetical disposal system. The application leads to a comprehensive list of factors and a set of scenarios that require further quantitative study. The application also identifies a number of other factors and potential scenarios that would not contribute significantly to environmental and safety impacts for the hypothetical disposal system. (author). 46 refs., 3 tabs., 3 figs., 2 appendices.

  10. Scenario analysis for the postclosure assessment of the Canadian concept for nuclear fuel waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goodwin, B.W.; Stephens, M.E.; Davison, C.C.; Johnson, L.H.; Zach, R.

    1994-12-01

    AECL Research has developed and evaluated a concept for disposal of Canada's nuclear fuel waste involving deep underground disposal of the waste in intrusive igneous rock of the Canadian Shield. The postclosure assessment of this concept focusses on the effects on human health and the environment due to potential contaminant releases into the biosphere after the disposal vault is closed. Both radiotoxic and chemically toxic contaminants are considered. One of the steps in the postclosure assessment process is scenario analysis. Scenario analysis identifies factors that could affect the performance of the disposal system and groups these factors into scenarios that require detailed quantitative evaluation. This report documents a systematic procedure for scenario analysis that was developed for the postclosure assessment and then applied to the study of a hypothetical disposal system. The application leads to a comprehensive list of factors and a set of scenarios that require further quantitative study. The application also identifies a number of other factors and potential scenarios that would not contribute significantly to environmental and safety impacts for the hypothetical disposal system. (author). 46 refs., 3 tabs., 3 figs., 2 appendices

  11. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

    2016-01-01

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially

  12. Multi-scenario evaluation and specification of electromagnetic loads on ITER vacuum vessel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rozov, Vladimir; Martinez, J.-M.; Portafaix, C.; Sannazzaro, G.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • We present the results of multi-scenario analysis of EM loads on ITER vacuum vessel (VV). • The differentiation of models provides the economic way to perform big amount of calculations. • Functional approximation is proposed for distributed data/FE/numerical results specification. • Examples of specification of the load profiles by trigonometric polynomials (DHT) are given. • Principles of accounting for toroidal asymmetry at EM interactions in tokamak are considered. - Abstract: The electro-magnetic (EM) transients cause mechanical forces, which represent one of the most critical loads for the ITER vacuum vessel (VV). The paper is focused on the results of multi-scenario analysis and systematization of these EM loads, including specifically addressed pressures on shells and the net vertical force. The proposed mathematical model and computational technology, based on the use of integral parameters and operational analysis methods, enabled qualitative and quantitative analysis of the problem, time-efficient computations and systematic assessment of a large number of scenarios. The obtained estimates, found envelopes and peak values exemplify the principal loads on the VV and provide a database to support engineering load specifications. Special attention is given to the challenge of specification and documenting of the results in a form, suitable for using the data in engineering applications. The practical aspects of specification of distributed data, such as experimental and finite-element (FE) results, by analytical interpolants are discussed. The example of functional approximation of the load profiles by trigonometric polynomials based on discrete Hartley transform (DHT) is given

  13. Multi-scenario evaluation and specification of electromagnetic loads on ITER vacuum vessel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rozov, Vladimir, E-mail: vladimir.rozov@iter.org; Martinez, J.-M.; Portafaix, C.; Sannazzaro, G.

    2014-10-15

    Highlights: • We present the results of multi-scenario analysis of EM loads on ITER vacuum vessel (VV). • The differentiation of models provides the economic way to perform big amount of calculations. • Functional approximation is proposed for distributed data/FE/numerical results specification. • Examples of specification of the load profiles by trigonometric polynomials (DHT) are given. • Principles of accounting for toroidal asymmetry at EM interactions in tokamak are considered. - Abstract: The electro-magnetic (EM) transients cause mechanical forces, which represent one of the most critical loads for the ITER vacuum vessel (VV). The paper is focused on the results of multi-scenario analysis and systematization of these EM loads, including specifically addressed pressures on shells and the net vertical force. The proposed mathematical model and computational technology, based on the use of integral parameters and operational analysis methods, enabled qualitative and quantitative analysis of the problem, time-efficient computations and systematic assessment of a large number of scenarios. The obtained estimates, found envelopes and peak values exemplify the principal loads on the VV and provide a database to support engineering load specifications. Special attention is given to the challenge of specification and documenting of the results in a form, suitable for using the data in engineering applications. The practical aspects of specification of distributed data, such as experimental and finite-element (FE) results, by analytical interpolants are discussed. The example of functional approximation of the load profiles by trigonometric polynomials based on discrete Hartley transform (DHT) is given.

  14. Orbital alignment of circumbinary planets that form in misaligned circumbinary discs: the case of Kepler-413b

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierens, A.; Nelson, R. P.

    2018-06-01

    Although most of the circumbinary planets detected by the Kepler spacecraft are on orbits that are closely aligned with the binary orbital plane, the systems Kepler-413 and Kepler-453 exhibit small misalignments of ˜2.5°. One possibility is that these planets formed in a circumbinary disc whose midplane was inclined relative to the binary orbital plane. Such a configuration is expected to lead to a warped and twisted disc, and our aim is to examine the inclination evolution of planets embedded in these discs. We employed 3D hydrodynamical simulations that examine the disc response to the presence of a modestly inclined binary with parameters that match the Kepler-413 system, as a function of disc parameters and binary inclinations. The discs all develop slowly varying warps, and generally display very small amounts of twist. Very slow solid body precession occurs because a large outer disc radius is adopted. Simulations of planets embedded in these discs resulted in the planet aligning with the binary orbit plane for disc masses close to the minimum mass solar nebular, such that nodal precession of the planet was controlled by the binary. For higher disc masses, the planet maintains near coplanarity with the local disc midplane. Our results suggest that circumbinary planets born in tilted circumbinary discs should align with the binary orbit plane as the disc ages and loses mass, even if the circumbinary disc remains misaligned from the binary orbit. This result has important implications for understanding the origins of the known circumbinary planets.

  15. Effect of inherent misalignment and head motion in neurological PET/MR with the Philips Ingenuity TF – phantom and patient study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Teuho, Jarmo; Johansson, Jarkko; Saunavaara, Virva; Kemppainen, Nina; Teräs, Mika [Turku PET Centre, Turku University Hospital, Turku (Finland)

    2014-07-29

    The aim of the study was to evaluate the effect of misalignment and head motion on image quantification in PET/MR with a novel brain phantom and a healthy control group. The phantom was imaged at two time points in PET/MR, concurrently with PET and PET/CT. Phantom images were evaluated visually and the relative difference in hemispheric accumulation was calculated. Difference in cortical accumulation in a healthy control group was evaluated from non-attenuation corrected (NAC) and MR attenuation corrected (MRAC) images. Regional ROI mean values from F{sup 18}-FDG ratio images and regional hemispheric asymmetries were calculated. Controls were divided to high and low asymmetry groups. A student’s t-test (p<0.005) for group difference and NAC versus MRAC data was performed. Finally, mean PET-MR registration parameters were measured. Only the first phantom scan exhibited asymmetry in lateral frontal cortex (17%) and temporal cortex (19%). Correcting the misalignment of 2.63mm reduced the asymmetry to less than 5%, to a level seen in PET and PET/CT. A significant asymmetry was found in the temporal and parietal cortex between groups in MRAC data with no significant asymmetry in NAC data. Asymmetries in affected MRAC data in temporal and parietal cortex were 9.4% and 11.7%. NAC data from both groups had asymmetry less than 5% in all regions. Both groups had significant y- and z-translation, while only the asymmetry group had significant z-rotation and x-translation. The shift in x-, y-, or z-direction in both groups was less than 4 mm, with no significant differences. Thus, PET-MRAC misalignment may cause under- and overestimation of attenuation in the lines of response on opposite sides of the cortical regions, resulting to asymmetric difference between the hemispheres. Our findings stress the need for novel QC procedures for PET-MR alignment and suggest confirming the quality of PET-MRAC alignment from PET-NAC images.

  16. Online scenario labeling using a hidden Markov model for assessment of nuclear plant state

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zamalieva, Daniya; Yilmaz, Alper; Aldemir, Tunc

    2013-01-01

    By taking into account both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties within the same probabilistic framework, dynamic event trees (DETs) provide more comprehensive and systematic coverage of possible scenarios following an initiating event compared to conventional event trees. When DET generation algorithms are applied to complex realistic systems, extremely large amounts of data can be produced due to both the large number of scenarios generated following a single initiating event and the large number of data channels that represent these scenarios. In addition, the computational time required for the simulation of each scenario can be very large (e.g. about 24 h of serial run simulation time for a 4 h station blackout scenario). Since scenarios leading to system failure are more of interest, a method is proposed for online labeling of scenarios as failure or non-failure. The algorithm first trains a Hidden Markov Model, which represents the behavior of non-failure scenarios, using a training set from previous simulations. Then, the maximum likelihoods of sample failure and non-failure scenarios fitting this model are computed. These values are used to determine the timestamp at which the labeling of a certain scenario should be performed. Finally, during the succeeding timestamps, the likelihood of each scenario fitting the learned model is computed, and a dynamic thresholding based on the previously calculated likelihood values is applied. The scenarios whose likelihood is higher than the threshold are labeled as non-failure. The proposed algorithm can further delay the non-failure scenarios or discontinue them in order to redirect the computational resources toward the failure scenarios, and reduce computational time and complexity. Experiments using RELAP5/3D model of a fast reactor utilizing an Reactor Vessel Auxiliary Cooling System (RVACS) passive decay heat removal system and dynamic analysis of a station blackout (SBO) event show that the proposed method is

  17. Super-heavy dark matter – Towards predictive scenarios from inflation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kannike, Kristjan [National Institute of Chemical Physics and Biophysics, Rävala 10, 10143 Tallinn (Estonia); Racioppi, Antonio, E-mail: antonio.racioppi@kbfi.ee [National Institute of Chemical Physics and Biophysics, Rävala 10, 10143 Tallinn (Estonia); Raidal, Martti [National Institute of Chemical Physics and Biophysics, Rävala 10, 10143 Tallinn (Estonia); Institute of Physics, University of Tartu, W. Ostwaldi 1, 50411 Tartu (Estonia)

    2017-05-15

    A generic prediction of the Coleman–Weinberg inflation is the existence of a heavy particle sector whose interactions with the inflaton, the lightest state in this sector, generate the inflaton potential at loop level. For typical interactions the heavy sector may contain stable states whose relic abundance is generated at the end of inflation by the gravity alone. This general feature, and the absence of any particle physics signal of dark matter so far, motivates us to look for new directions in the dark sector physics, including scenarios in which dark matter is super-heavy. In this article we study the possibility that the dark matter is even heavier than the inflaton, its existence follows from the inflaton dynamics, and its abundance today is naturally determined by the weakness of gravitational interaction. This implies that the super-heavy dark matter scenarios can be tested via the measurements of inflationary parameters and/or the CMB isocurvature perturbations and non-Gaussianities. We explicitly work out details of three Coleman–Weinberg inflation scenarios, study the systematics of super-heavy dark matter production in those cases, and compute which parts of the parameter spaces can be probed by the future CMB measurements.

  18. Making use of scenarios : supporting scenario use in product design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anggreeni, Irene

    2010-01-01

    The discipline of Scenario-Based Product Design (SBPD) guides the use of scenarios in a product design process. As concrete narratives, scenarios could facilitate making explicit how users would use the designed product in their activities, allowing usability studies to be an integrated part of the

  19. Distance education in neonatal nursing scenarios: a systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laís Machado Freire

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE Identify resources that support learning mediated by technology in the field of neonatal nursing. METHOD Systematic review with searches conducted in MEDLINE, LILACS and SciELO. Titles and abstracts were independently evaluated by two experts. RESULTS Of the 2,051 references, 203 full-text articles were analyzed, resulting in the inclusion of nine studies on semiotics and semiology, cardiopulmonary resuscitation, general aspects of neonatal care, diagnostic reasoning and assessment of pain. Only two articles addressed the development of educational strategies and seven papers described the assessment of these strategies by experts and/or users. CONCLUSION Distance education is an important resource for education, and its improvement and updating, and it particularly adds advantages for neonatal nursing by approximating teaching and real-life situations and by minimizing the exposure of newborns for teaching purposes. The lack of educational initiatives mediated by technology suggests the need for the development, evaluation and dissemination of educational resources focused on nursing care of newborns and their families.

  20. [Distance education in neonatal nursing scenarios: a systematic review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freire, Laís Machado; Paula, Mariane Andreza de; Duarte, Elysangela Dittz; Bueno, Mariana

    2015-06-01

    Identify resources that support learning mediated by technology in the field of neonatal nursing. Systematic review with searches conducted in MEDLINE, LILACS and SciELO. Titles and abstracts were independently evaluated by two experts. Of the 2,051 references, 203 full-text articles were analyzed, resulting in the inclusion of nine studies on semiotics and semiology, cardiopulmonary resuscitation, general aspects of neonatal care, diagnostic reasoning and assessment of pain. Only two articles addressed the development of educational strategies and seven papers described the assessment of these strategies by experts and/or users. Distance education is an important resource for education, and its improvement and updating, and it particularly adds advantages for neonatal nursing by approximating teaching and real-life situations and by minimizing the exposure of newborns for teaching purposes. The lack of educational initiatives mediated by technology suggests the need for the development, evaluation and dissemination of educational resources focused on nursing care of newborns and their families.

  1. Dying scenarios improve recall as much as survival scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Kramer, Melanie E

    2014-01-01

    Merely contemplating one's death improves retention for entirely unrelated material learned subsequently. This "dying to remember" effect seems conceptually related to the survival processing effect, whereby processing items for their relevance to being stranded in the grasslands leads to recall superior to that of other deep processing control conditions. The present experiments directly compared survival processing scenarios with "death processing" scenarios. Results showed that when the survival and dying scenarios are closely matched on key dimensions, and possible congruency effects are controlled, the dying and survival scenarios produced equivalently high recall levels. We conclude that the available evidence (cf. Bell, Roer, & Buchner, 2013; Klein, 2012), while not definitive, is consistent with the possibility of overlapping mechanisms.

  2. A bivariate space-time downscaler under space and time misalignment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berrocal, Veronica J; Gelfand, Alan E; Holland, David M

    2010-12-01

    Ozone and particulate matter PM(2.5) are co-pollutants that have long been associated with increased public health risks. Information on concentration levels for both pollutants come from two sources: monitoring sites and output from complex numerical models that produce concentration surfaces over large spatial regions. In this paper, we offer a fully-model based approach for fusing these two sources of information for the pair of co-pollutants which is computationally feasible over large spatial regions and long periods of time. Due to the association between concentration levels of the two environmental contaminants, it is expected that information regarding one will help to improve prediction of the other. Misalignment is an obvious issue since the monitoring networks for the two contaminants only partly intersect and because the collection rate for PM(2.5) is typically less frequent than that for ozone.Extending previous work in Berrocal et al. (2009), we introduce a bivariate downscaler that provides a flexible class of bivariate space-time assimilation models. We discuss computational issues for model fitting and analyze a dataset for ozone and PM(2.5) for the ozone season during year 2002. We show a modest improvement in predictive performance, not surprising in a setting where we can anticipate only a small gain.

  3. Thermal leptogenesis and the gravitino problem in the Asaka-Yanagida axion/axino dark matter scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baer, Howard; Lessa, Andre; Kraml, Sabine; Sekmen, Sezen

    2011-01-01

    A successful implementation of thermal leptogenesis requires the re-heat temperature after inflation T R to exceed ∼ 2 × 10 9 GeV. Such a high T R value typically leads to an overproduction of gravitinos in the early universe, which will cause conflicts, mainly with BBN constraints. Asaka and Yanagida (AY) have proposed that these two issues can be reconciled in the context of the Peccei-Quinn augmented MSSM (PQMSSM) if one adopts a mass hierarchy m(sparticle) > m(gravitino)>m(axino), with m(axino) ∼ keV. In this case, sparticle decays bypass the gravitino, and decay more quickly to the axino LSP, thus avoiding the BBN constraints. In addition, thermally produced gravitinos decay inertly to axion+axino, also avoiding BBN constraints. We calculate the relic abundance of mixed axion/axino dark matter in the AY scenario, and investigate under what conditions a value of T R sufficient for thermal leptogenesis can be generated. A high value of PQ breaking scale f a is needed to suppress overproduction of axinos, while a small vacuum misalignment angle θ i is needed to suppress overproduction of axions. The large value of f a results in late decaying neutralinos. We show that, to avoid BBN constraints, the AY scenario requires a rather low thermal abundance of neutralinos, while higher values of neutralino mass also help. We combine these constraint calculations along with entropy production from late decaying saxions, and find the saxion needs to be typically at least several times heavier than the gravitino. A successful implementation of the AY scenario suggests that LHC should discover a spectrum of SUSY particles consistent with weak scale supergravity; that the apparent neutralino abundance is low; that an axion direct detection signal (probably with m a in the sub-μeV range) may be possible, but no direct or indirect signals for WIMP dark matter should be observed

  4. Scenario development for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: Building confidence in the assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galson, D.A.; Swift, P.N.

    1994-01-01

    Scenario developments is part of the iterative performance assessment (PA) process for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Scenario development for the WIPP has been the subject of intense external review, and is certain to be the subject of continued scrutiny as the project proceeds toward regulatory compliance. The principal means of increasing confidence is this aspect of the PA will be through the use of a systematic and thorough procedure toward developing the scenarios and conceptual models on which the assessment is to be based. Early and ongoing interaction with project reviewers can assist with confidence building. Quality of argument and clarity of presentation in PA will be of key concern. Appropriate tools are required for documenting and tracking assumptions, through a single assessment phase, and between iterative assessment phases. Risks associated with future human actions are of particular concern to the WIPP project, and international consensus on the principles for incorporation of future human actions in assessments would be valuable

  5. Scenario development for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant: Building confidence in the assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galson, D.A.; Swift, P.N.

    1994-07-01

    Scenario development is part of the iterative performance assessment (PA) process for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Scenario development for the WIPP has been the subject of intense external review and is certain to be the subject of continued scrutiny as the project proceeds toward regulatory compliance. The principal means of increasing confidence in this aspect of the PA will be through the use of the systematic and thorough procedure toward developing the scenarios and conceptual models on which the assessment is to be based. Early and ongoing interaction with project reviewers can assist with confidence building. Quality of argument and clarity of presentation in PA will be of key concern. Appropriate tools are required for documenting and tracking assumptions, through a single assessment phase, and between iterative assessment phases. Risks associated with future human actions are of particular concern to the WIPP project, and international consensus on the principles for incorporation of future human actions in assessments would be valuable

  6. The world in scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Jong, A.; Roodenburg, H.

    1992-01-01

    As an introduction to this special issue 'Worlds of difference: Scenarios's for the economy, energy and the environment 1990-2015', an outline is given of the future of the world and the Netherlands, based on four scenarios. These scenarios are published in 'Scanning the future' in May 1992 by the CPB, the Dutch Central Planning Bureau. The Global Shift (GS) scenario is characterized by a very dynamic technological development, the free market perspective, strong economic growth in the Asian economies, and a relative economic regression in Western Europe. In the European Renaissance (ER) scenario the technological development is less dynamic and more gradual than in the GS scenario. The Balanced Growth (BG) scenario is dominated by a sustainable economic development and a strong technological dynamic development. The Global Crisis (GC) scenario shows a downward spiral in many areas, stagnating developments and fragile economies as results of the trends in the eighties. The first three scenarios are elaborated for the Netherlands. Also attention is paid to the aims and meaning of long-term scenarios. 2 figs., 2 tabs., 3 refs

  7. Simulation of Electron Energy Spectra of a Biased Paracentric Hemispherical Deflection Analyzer as a Function of Entry Bias: Effects of Misalignments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Sise

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The performance of a biased paracentric hemispherical deflection analyzer (HDA, including fringing fields and their effect on focusing and energy resolution, is investigated using numerical methods. Electron energy spectra are calculated for three entry positions R0=84 mm, 100 mm, and 112 mm and compared with the recent experimental measurements. In both experiment and calculation, the two different paracentric entry positions R0=84 mm and R0=112 mm, on either side of the mean radius of 100 mm, are found to have a base energy resolution of about two times better than the conventional centric entry position R0=100 mm. In order to explain the discrepancies (6–30% between the simulated and the experimental resolutions the focusing characteristics are further investigated for different displacements of the input lens (ΔR0 with respect to the entry position R0 and the tilted input beam axis by αshift in the dispersive direction. We have found that the blame does not in fact lie with the theory and we have shown that the input lens may have been misaligned in the experiment. Slight misalignments affect both the true energy resolution measurement and the transmission of the beam.

  8. Systematic Correlation Matrix Evaluation (SCoMaE) - a bottom-up, science-led approach to identifying indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengis, Nadine; Keller, David P.; Oschlies, Andreas

    2018-01-01

    This study introduces the Systematic Correlation Matrix Evaluation (SCoMaE) method, a bottom-up approach which combines expert judgment and statistical information to systematically select transparent, nonredundant indicators for a comprehensive assessment of the state of the Earth system. The methods consists of two basic steps: (1) the calculation of a correlation matrix among variables relevant for a given research question and (2) the systematic evaluation of the matrix, to identify clusters of variables with similar behavior and respective mutually independent indicators. Optional further analysis steps include (3) the interpretation of the identified clusters, enabling a learning effect from the selection of indicators, (4) testing the robustness of identified clusters with respect to changes in forcing or boundary conditions, (5) enabling a comparative assessment of varying scenarios by constructing and evaluating a common correlation matrix, and (6) the inclusion of expert judgment, for example, to prescribe indicators, to allow for considerations other than statistical consistency. The example application of the SCoMaE method to Earth system model output forced by different CO2 emission scenarios reveals the necessity of reevaluating indicators identified in a historical scenario simulation for an accurate assessment of an intermediate-high, as well as a business-as-usual, climate change scenario simulation. This necessity arises from changes in prevailing correlations in the Earth system under varying climate forcing. For a comparative assessment of the three climate change scenarios, we construct and evaluate a common correlation matrix, in which we identify robust correlations between variables across the three considered scenarios.

  9. Overview description of the base scenario derived from FEP analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Locke, J.; Bailey, L.

    1998-01-01

    This report forms part of a suite of documents describing the Nirex model development programme. The programme is designed to provide a clear audit trail from the identification of significant features, events and processes (FEPs) to the models and modelling processes employed within a detailed performance assessment. A scenario approach to performance assessment has been adopted. It is proposed that potential evolutions of a deep geological radioactive waste repository can be represented by a base scenario and a number of variant scenarios. It is intended that assessment of the base scenario would form the core of any future performance assessment. The base scenario is chosen to be broad-ranging and to represent the natural evolution of the repository system and its surrounding environment. The base scenario is defined to include all those FEPs which are certain to occur and those which are judged likely to occur for a significant period of the assessment - timescale. Variant scenarios are defined by FEPs which represent a significant perturbation to the natural system evolution, for example the occurrence of a large seismic event. The structuring of FEPs on a Master Directed Diagram (MDD), provides a systematic framework for identifying those FEPs which form part of the natural evolution of the system and those which may define alternative potential evolutions of the repository system. In order to construct a description of the base scenario, FEPs have been grouped into a series of conceptual models. Conceptual models are groups of FEPs, identified from the MDD, representing a specific component or process within the disposal system. It has been found appropriate to define conceptual models in terms of the three main components of the disposal system: the repository engineered system, the surrounding geosphere and the biosphere. For each of these components, conceptual models provide a description of the relevant subsystem in terms of its initial characteristics

  10. The effect of coil misalignment on particle transport in quasi-axisymmetric systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimizu, Akihiro; Okamura, Shoichi; Isobe, Mitsutaka; Suzuki, Chihiro; Nishimura, Shin; Akiyama, Tsuyoshi; Matsuoka, Keisuke; Nemov, Victor V.

    2004-01-01

    The effect of the misalignment of modular coils neoclassical transport in CHS-qa is discussed in this paper. In order to calculate the effective helical ripple that characterizes the neoclassical transport of the stellarator configuration, NEO code is used which gives the effective helical ripple numerically. A displacement is put artificially on the modular coils of the CHS-qa, and the effect of this on the profile of the effective helical ripple is evaluated quantitatively. One objective of this study is to obtain useful information to determine the acceptable error level for the assembly of modular coils from the viewpoint of engineering. The calculation results of the NEO code show that if the level of displacement is smaller than a few centimeters, it has only a very small effect on the neoclassical transport. The a mount of change in the effective helical ripple is small. Therefore the displacement of the modular coils caused by the electromagnetic force at a 1.5 T operation of CHS-qa does not lead to significant problems in terms of neoclassical transport. (author)

  11. Development of a computer tool to support scenario analysis for safety assessment of HLW geological disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Makino, Hitoshi; Kawamura, Makoto; Wakasugi, Keiichiro; Okubo, Hiroo; Takase, Hiroyasu

    2007-02-01

    In 'H12 Project to Establishing Technical Basis for HLW Disposal in Japan' a systematic approach that was based on an international consensus was adopted to develop scenarios to be considered in performance assessment. Adequacy of the approach was, in general term, appreciated through the domestic and international peer review. However it was also suggested that there were issues related to improving transparency and traceability of the procedure. To achieve this, improvement of scenario analysis method has been studied. In this study, based on an improvement method for treatment of FEP interaction a computer tool to support scenario analysis by specialists of performance assessment has been developed. Anticipated effects of this tool are to improve efficiency of complex and time consuming scenario analysis work and to reduce possibility of human errors in this work. This tool also enables to describe interactions among a vast number of FEPs and the related information as interaction matrix, and analysis those interactions from a variety of perspectives. (author)

  12. MUON DETECTORS: ALIGNMENT

    CERN Multimedia

    Z. Szillasi and G. Gomez.

    2013-01-01

    When CMS is opened up, major components of the Link and Barrel Alignment systems will be removed. This operation, besides allowing for maintenance of the detector underneath, is needed for making interventions that will reinforce the alignment measurements and make the operation of the alignment system more reliable. For that purpose and also for their general maintenance and recalibration, the alignment components will be transferred to the Alignment Lab situated in the ISR area. For the track-based alignment, attention is focused on the determination of systematic uncertainties, which have become dominant, since now there is a large statistics of muon tracks. This will allow for an improved Monte Carlo misalignment scenario and updated alignment position errors, crucial for high-momentum muon analysis such as Z′ searches.

  13. The Attentional Demand of Automobile Driving Revisited: Occlusion Distance as a Function of Task-Relevant Event Density in Realistic Driving Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kujala, Tuomo; Mäkelä, Jakke; Kotilainen, Ilkka; Tokkonen, Timo

    2016-02-01

    We studied the utility of occlusion distance as a function of task-relevant event density in realistic traffic scenarios with self-controlled speed. The visual occlusion technique is an established method for assessing visual demands of driving. However, occlusion time is not a highly informative measure of environmental task-relevant event density in self-paced driving scenarios because it partials out the effects of changes in driving speed. Self-determined occlusion times and distances of 97 drivers with varying backgrounds were analyzed in driving scenarios simulating real Finnish suburban and highway traffic environments with self-determined vehicle speed. Occlusion distances varied systematically with the expected environmental demands of the manipulated driving scenarios whereas the distributions of occlusion times remained more static across the scenarios. Systematic individual differences in the preferred occlusion distances were observed. More experienced drivers achieved better lane-keeping accuracy than inexperienced drivers with similar occlusion distances; however, driving experience was unexpectedly not a major factor for the preferred occlusion distances. Occlusion distance seems to be an informative measure for assessing task-relevant event density in realistic traffic scenarios with self-controlled speed. Occlusion time measures the visual demand of driving as the task-relevant event rate in time intervals, whereas occlusion distance measures the experienced task-relevant event density in distance intervals. The findings can be utilized in context-aware distraction mitigation systems, human-automated vehicle interaction, road speed prediction and design, as well as in the testing of visual in-vehicle tasks for inappropriate in-vehicle glancing behaviors in any dynamic traffic scenario for which appropriate individual occlusion distances can be defined. © 2015, Human Factors and Ergonomics Society.

  14. Interpreting energy scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iyer, Gokul; Edmonds, James

    2018-05-01

    Quantitative scenarios from energy-economic models inform decision-making about uncertain futures. Now, research shows the different ways these scenarios are subsequently used by users not involved in their initial development. In the absence of clear guidance from modellers, users may place too much or too little confidence in scenario assumptions and results.

  15. Using scenarios of North Slope energy and resource development to assess research and monitoring needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payne, J. F.

    2016-12-01

    Significant Arctic environmental and socio-economic change has been observed on the North Slope of Alaska, presenting challenges for resident communities and management agencies that need to adapt to future changes that are difficult to model or predict. Continued climate change coupled with new or modified energy development could substantially alter the landscape and ecosystem in the future. The North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) recognized the value of using a participatory scenarios process to consider plausible future energy and resource development scenarios through the year 2040 to help identify and prioritize research and monitoring needs on the North Slope. The scenarios process engaged diverse stakeholders, including subject matter experts and local knowledge holders. Through identification and ranking of key drivers and uncertainties relevant to the focus of the study, a series of spatially explicit scenarios was developed, analyzed in terms of low, medium and high development activities. Climate change and economic factors were key drivers affecting plausible energy development scenarios. The implications from each of the scenarios were then used to identify important research and monitoring activities and their relevant spatial scales. The scenarios project identified over 40 research and monitoring needs. The top five research needs addressed data gaps and key concerns related to how the scenarios could affect: hunting and trapping on land, health and community well-being, permafrost and hydrology, marine mammal subsistence and potential marine oil spills. The use of a participatory scenarios process was essential for identifying a range of plausible energy and resource development scenarios using a framework that involved a systematic assessment of complex interacting drivers of change, consideration of key uncertainties, and transparency throughout the project.

  16. Super-heavy dark matter – Towards predictive scenarios from inflation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristjan Kannike

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available A generic prediction of the Coleman–Weinberg inflation is the existence of a heavy particle sector whose interactions with the inflaton, the lightest state in this sector, generate the inflaton potential at loop level. For typical interactions the heavy sector may contain stable states whose relic abundance is generated at the end of inflation by the gravity alone. This general feature, and the absence of any particle physics signal of dark matter so far, motivates us to look for new directions in the dark sector physics, including scenarios in which dark matter is super-heavy. In this article we study the possibility that the dark matter is even heavier than the inflaton, its existence follows from the inflaton dynamics, and its abundance today is naturally determined by the weakness of gravitational interaction. This implies that the super-heavy dark matter scenarios can be tested via the measurements of inflationary parameters and/or the CMB isocurvature perturbations and non-Gaussianities. We explicitly work out details of three Coleman–Weinberg inflation scenarios, study the systematics of super-heavy dark matter production in those cases, and compute which parts of the parameter spaces can be probed by the future CMB measurements.

  17. SDSS-IV MaNGA: properties of galaxies with kinematically decoupled stellar and gaseous components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Yifei; Chen, Yanmei; Shi, Yong; Tremonti, C. A.; Bershady, M. A.; Merrifield, M.; Emsellem, E.; Fu, Hai; Wake, D.; Bundy, K.; Lin, Lihwai; Argudo-Fernandez, M.; Huang, Song; Stark, D. V.; Storchi-Bergmann, T.; Bizyaev, D.; Brownstein, J.; Chisholm, J.; Guo, Qi; Hao, Lei; Hu, Jian; Li, Cheng; Li, Ran; Masters, K. L.; Malanushenko, E.; Pan, Kaike; Riffel, R. A.; Roman-Lopes, A.; Simmons, A.; Thomas, D.; Wang, Lan; Westfall, K.; Yan, Renbin

    2016-11-01

    We study the properties of 66 galaxies with kinematically misaligned gas and stars from MaNGA survey. The fraction of kinematically misaligned galaxies varies with galaxy physical parameters, I.e. M*, SFR and sSFR. According to their sSFR, we further classify these 66 galaxies into three categories, 10 star-forming, 26 `Green Valley' and 30 quiescent ones. The properties of different types of kinematically misaligned galaxies are different in that the star-forming ones have positive gradient in Dn4000 and higher gas-phase metallicity, while the green valley/quiescent ones have negative Dn4000 gradients and lower gas-phase metallicity on average. There is evidence that all types of the kinematically misaligned galaxies tend to live in more isolated environment. Based on all these observational results, we propose a scenario for the formation of star-forming galaxies with kinematically misaligned gas and stars - the progenitor accretes misaligned gas from a gas-rich dwarf or cosmic web, the cancellation of angular momentum from gas-gas collisions between the pre-existing gas and the accreted gas largely accelerates gas inflow, leading to fast centrally concentrated star formation. The higher metallicity is due to enrichment from this star formation. For the kinematically misaligned green valley and quiescent galaxies, they might be formed through gas-poor progenitors accreting kinematically misaligned gas from satellites which are smaller in mass.

  18. Integrative Scenario Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joerg A. Priess

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Scenarios are employed to address a large number of future environmental and socioeconomic challenges. We present a conceptual framework for the development of scenarios to integrate the objectives of different stakeholder groups. Based on the framework, land-use scenarios were developed to provide a common base for further research. At the same time, these scenarios assisted regional stakeholders to bring forward their concerns and arrive at a shared understanding of challenges between scientific and regional stakeholders, which allowed them to eventually support regional decision making. The focus on the integration of views and knowledge domains of different stakeholder groups, such as scientists and practitioners, required rigorous and repeated measures of quality control. The application of the integrative concept provided products for both stakeholder groups, and the process of scenario development facilitated cooperation and learning within both the scientist and practitioner groups as well as between the two groups.

  19. The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pitcher, Hugh M

    2009-01-01

    In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

  20. The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitcher, Hugh M.

    2009-04-01

    In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

  1. Dark Radiation predictions from general Large Volume Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hebecker, Arthur; Mangat, Patrick; Rompineve, Fabrizio; Witkowski, Lukas T.

    2014-09-01

    Recent observations constrain the amount of Dark Radiation (Δ N eff ) and may even hint towards a non-zero value of Δ N eff . It is by now well-known that this puts stringent constraints on the sequestered Large Volume Scenario (LVS), i.e. on LVS realisations with the Standard Model at a singularity. We go beyond this setting by considering LVS models where SM fields are realised on 7-branes in the geometric regime. As we argue, this naturally goes together with high-scale supersymmetry. The abundance of Dark Radiation is determined by the competition between the decay of the lightest modulus to axions, to the SM Higgs and to gauge fields, and leads to strict constraints on these models. Nevertheless, these constructions can in principle meet current DR bounds due to decays into gauge bosons alone. Further, a rather robust prediction for a substantial amount of Dark Radiation can be made. This applies both to cases where the SM 4-cycles are stabilised by D-terms and are small `by accident', i.e. tuning, as well as to fibred models with the small cycles stabilised by loops. In these constructions the DR axion and the QCD axion are the same field and we require a tuning of the initial misalignment to avoid Dark Matter overproduction. Furthermore, we analyse a closely related setting where the SM lives at a singularity but couples to the volume modulus through flavour branes. We conclude that some of the most natural LVS settings with natural values of model parameters lead to Dark Radiation predictions just below the present observational limits. Barring a discovery, rather modest improvements of present Dark Radiation bounds can rule out many of these most simple and generic variants of the LVS.

  2. Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunne, Rob; Schatz, Sae; Flore, Stephen M.; Nicholson, Denise

    2011-01-01

    Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.

  3. Super-ASSET: A technique for measuring and correcting accelerator structure misalignments at the SLC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Decker, F.J.; Assmann, R.; Minty, M.G.; Raimondi, P.; Stupakov, G.

    1998-07-01

    Transverse wakefield kicks from misaligned accelerating structures in the SLC linac contribute significantly to emittance growth. If these kicks could be measured directly, it would be possible to align and/or steer the beam to a kick-free trajectory. In the Accelerator Structure Test Facility at SLAC, ASSET, the kicks due to a drive bunch are measured with a witness bunch at varying bunch separations. In ASSET, the first bunch is discarded and only the second bunch is measured. Super-ASSET is an extension of this technique where both bunches are accelerated down the entire linac together and a sum trajectory of both bunches is measured with beam position monitors (BPMs). The trajectory of the second, kicked bunch can be calculated by subtracting the orbit of the first bunch, measured alone, from the sum trajectory. This paper discusses BPM response issues and the expected resolution of this technique together with alignment and steering strategies

  4. Classifying Scenarios in a Product Design Process: a study to achieve automated scenario generation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anggreeni, Irene; van der Voort, Mascha C.; van Houten, F.J.A.M.; Miedema, J.; Lutters, D.

    2008-01-01

    This paper explains the possible uses of scenarios in product design. A scenario classification is proposed as a framework to create, use and reuse different types of scenarios in a product design process. Our aims are three-fold: (1) to obtain a better view on the extent to which scenarios can be

  5. Environmental and climate security: improving scenario methodologies for science and risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briggs, C. M.; Carlsen, H.

    2010-12-01

    Governments and popular discussions have increasingly referred to concepts of ‘climate security’, often with reference to IPCC data. Development of effective methodologies to translate complex, scientific data into risk assessments has lagged, resulting in overly simplistic political assumptions of potential impacts. Climate security scenarios have been developed for use by security and military agencies, but effective engagement by scientific communities requires an improved framework. Effective use of data requires improvement both of climate projections, and the mapping of cascading impacts across interlinked, complex systems. In this research we propose a process for systematic generation of subsets of scenarios (of arbitrary size) from a given set of variables with possible interlinkages. The variables could include climatic changes as well as other global changes of concerns in a security context. In coping with possible challenges associated with the nexus of climate change and security - where deep structural uncertainty and possible irreversible changes are of primary interest - it is important to explore the outer limits of the relevant uncertainties. Therefore the proposed process includes a novel method that will help scenario developers in generating scenario sets where the scenarios are in a quantifiable sense maximally different and therefore best ‘span’ the whole set of scenarios. When downscaled onto a regional level, this process can provide guidance to potentially significant and abrupt geophysical changes, where high uncertainty has often prevented communication of risks. Potential physical changes can then be used as starting points for mapping cascading effects across networks, including topological analysis to identify critically vulnerable nodes and fragile systems, the existence of positive or negative feedback loops, and possible intervention points. Advanced knowledge of both potential geo-physical shifts and related non

  6. A Survey of Game Theoretic Approaches to Modelling Decision-Making in Information Warfare Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kathryn Merrick

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Our increasing dependence on information technologies and autonomous systems has escalated international concern for information- and cyber-security in the face of politically, socially and religiously motivated cyber-attacks. Information warfare tactics that interfere with the flow of information can challenge the survival of individuals and groups. It is increasingly important that both humans and machines can make decisions that ensure the trustworthiness of information, communication and autonomous systems. Subsequently, an important research direction is concerned with modelling decision-making processes. One approach to this involves modelling decision-making scenarios as games using game theory. This paper presents a survey of information warfare literature, with the purpose of identifying games that model different types of information warfare operations. Our contribution is a systematic identification and classification of information warfare games, as a basis for modelling decision-making by humans and machines in such scenarios. We also present a taxonomy of games that map to information warfare and cyber crime problems as a precursor to future research on decision-making in such scenarios. We identify and discuss open research questions including the role of behavioural game theory in modelling human decision making and the role of machine decision-making in information warfare scenarios.

  7. Scenario planning and nanotechnological futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farber, Darryl; Lakhtakia, Akhlesh

    2009-01-01

    Scenario planning may assist us in harnessing the benefits of nanotechnology and managing the associated risks for the good of the society. Scenario planning is a way to describe the present state of the world and develop several hypotheses about the future of the world, thereby enabling discussions about how the world ought to be. Scenario planning thus is not only a tool for learning and foresight, but also for leadership. Informed decision making by experts and political leaders becomes possible, while simultaneously allaying the public's perception of the risks of new and emerging technologies such as nanotechnology. Two scenarios of the societal impact of nanotechnology are the mixed-signals scenario and the confluence scenario. Technoscientists have major roles to play in both scenarios.

  8. Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines (Final Report)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA announced the availability of the final report, Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines. This report describes the scenarios and models used to generate national-scale housing density scenarios for the con...

  9. Development of exploratory approach for scenario analysis in the performance assessment of geological disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Makino, Hitoshi; Ishiguro, Katsuhiko; Umeki, Hiroyuki; Oyamada, Kiyoshi; Takase, Hiroyasu; Grindrod, Peter

    1998-01-01

    It becomes difficult to apply the ordinary method for scenario analysis as number of the processes and complexity in their interrelations are increased. For this problem, an exploratory approach, that can perform scenario analysis on wider range of problems, was developed. The approach includes ensemble runs of a mass transport model, that was developed as a generic and flexible model and can cover effects of various processes on the mass transport, and analysis of sensitivity structure among the input and output space of the ensemble runs. The technique of clustering and principal component analysis were applied in the approach. As the result of its test application, applicability of the approach was confirmed to identify important processes from number of the processes in the systematic and objective manner. (author)

  10. A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Vuuren, D.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; Kriegler, E.; O'Neill, B.C.; Ebi, K.L.; Riahi, K.; Carter, T.R.; Edmonds, J.; Hallegatte, S.; Kram, T.; Mathur, R.; Winkler, H.

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different

  11. A systematic review on in vitro 3D bone metastases models: A new horizon to recapitulate the native clinical scenario?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salamanna, Francesca; Contartese, Deyanira; Maglio, Melania; Fini, Milena

    2016-07-12

    While the skeleton is not the only organ where metastasis can occur, it is one of the preferred sites, with a significant impact in patients' quality of life. With the aim of delineating the cellular and molecular mechanisms of bone metastasis, numerous studies have been employed to identify any contributing factors that trigger cancer progression. One of the major limitations of studying cancer-bone metastasis is the multifaceted nature of the native bone environment and the lack of reliable, simple, and not expensive models that strictly mimic the biological processes occurring in vivo allowing a correct translation of results. Currently, with the growing acceptance of in vitro models as effective tools for studying cancer biology, three-dimensional (3D) models have emerged as a compromise between two-dimensional cultures of isolated cancer cells and the complexity of human cancer xenografts in immunocompromised animal hosts. This descriptive systematic literature review summarizes the current status of advanced and alternative 3D in vitro bone metastases models. We have also reviewed the strategies employed by researchers to set-up these models with special reference to recent promising developments trying to better replicate the complexity and heterogeneity of a human metastasis in situ, with an outlook at their use in medicine. All these aspects will greatly contribute to the existing knowledge on bone metastases, providing a specific link to clinical scenarios and thus making 3D in vitro bone metastasis models an attractive tool for multidisciplinary experts.

  12. Using Optimal Land-Use Scenarios to Assess Trade-Offs between Conservation, Development, and Social Values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Vanessa M; Pressey, Robert L; Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G

    2016-01-01

    Development of land resources can contribute to increased economic productivity but can also negatively affect the extent and condition of native vegetation, jeopardize the persistence of native species, reduce water quality, and erode ecosystem services. Spatial planning must therefore balance outcomes for conservation, development, and social goals. One approach to evaluating these trade-offs is scenario planning. In this paper we demonstrate methods for incorporating stakeholder preferences into scenario planning through both defining scenario objectives and evaluating the scenarios that emerge. In this way, we aim to develop spatial plans capable of informing actual land-use decisions. We used a novel approach to scenario planning that couples optimal land-use design and social evaluation of environmental outcomes. Four land-use scenarios combined differences in total clearing levels (10% and 20%) in our study region, the Daly Catchment Australia, with the presence or absence of spatial precincts to concentrate irrigated agriculture. We used the systematic conservation planning tool Marxan with Zones to optimally plan for multiple land-uses that met objectives for both conservation and development. We assessed the performance of the scenarios in terms of the number of objectives met and the degree to which existing land-use policies were compromised (e.g., whether clearing limits in existing guidelines were exceeded or not). We also assessed the land-use scenarios using expected stakeholder satisfaction with changes in the catchment to explore how the scenarios performed against social preferences. There were a small fraction of conservation objectives with high conservation targets (100%) that could not be met due to current land uses; all other conservation and development objectives were met in all scenarios. Most scenarios adhered to the existing clearing guidelines with only marginal exceedances of limits, indicating that the scenario objectives were

  13. Using Optimal Land-Use Scenarios to Assess Trade-Offs between Conservation, Development, and Social Values.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vanessa M Adams

    Full Text Available Development of land resources can contribute to increased economic productivity but can also negatively affect the extent and condition of native vegetation, jeopardize the persistence of native species, reduce water quality, and erode ecosystem services. Spatial planning must therefore balance outcomes for conservation, development, and social goals. One approach to evaluating these trade-offs is scenario planning. In this paper we demonstrate methods for incorporating stakeholder preferences into scenario planning through both defining scenario objectives and evaluating the scenarios that emerge. In this way, we aim to develop spatial plans capable of informing actual land-use decisions. We used a novel approach to scenario planning that couples optimal land-use design and social evaluation of environmental outcomes. Four land-use scenarios combined differences in total clearing levels (10% and 20% in our study region, the Daly Catchment Australia, with the presence or absence of spatial precincts to concentrate irrigated agriculture. We used the systematic conservation planning tool Marxan with Zones to optimally plan for multiple land-uses that met objectives for both conservation and development. We assessed the performance of the scenarios in terms of the number of objectives met and the degree to which existing land-use policies were compromised (e.g., whether clearing limits in existing guidelines were exceeded or not. We also assessed the land-use scenarios using expected stakeholder satisfaction with changes in the catchment to explore how the scenarios performed against social preferences. There were a small fraction of conservation objectives with high conservation targets (100% that could not be met due to current land uses; all other conservation and development objectives were met in all scenarios. Most scenarios adhered to the existing clearing guidelines with only marginal exceedances of limits, indicating that the scenario

  14. Strategic Scenario Construction Made Easy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    insights from the area of strategic forecasting (of which scenario planning is a proper subset) and experiences gained from a recent course in that area to develop a simpler, more direct, hands-on method for scenario construction and to provide several ideas for scenario construction that can be used......Scenario planning is a well-known way to develop corporate strategy by creating multiple images of alternative futures. Yet although scenario planning grew from very hands-on strategy development efforts in the military and from operations research dedicated to solving practical problems, the use...... of scenarios in business has, in many cases, remained a cumbersome affair. Very often a large group of consultants, employees and staff is involved in the development of scenarios and strategies, thus making the whole process expensive in terms of time, money and human resources. In response, this article uses...

  15. Scenario? Guilty!

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kyng, Morten

    1992-01-01

    Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts...... to warrant a response. I should probably confess that I searched my latest paper for the word "scenario" and found eight occurrences, none of which fell in the categories described by Campbell....

  16. Learning from global emissions scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Neill, Brian C; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

    2008-01-01

    Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

  17. Pathogenetics of alveolar capillary dysplasia with misalignment of pulmonary veins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szafranski, Przemyslaw; Gambin, Tomasz; Dharmadhikari, Avinash V; Akdemir, Kadir Caner; Jhangiani, Shalini N; Schuette, Jennifer; Godiwala, Nihal; Yatsenko, Svetlana A; Sebastian, Jessica; Madan-Khetarpal, Suneeta; Surti, Urvashi; Abellar, Rosanna G; Bateman, David A; Wilson, Ashley L; Markham, Melinda H; Slamon, Jill; Santos-Simarro, Fernando; Palomares, María; Nevado, Julián; Lapunzina, Pablo; Chung, Brian Hon-Yin; Wong, Wai-Lap; Chu, Yoyo Wing Yiu; Mok, Gary Tsz Kin; Kerem, Eitan; Reiter, Joel; Ambalavanan, Namasivayam; Anderson, Scott A; Kelly, David R; Shieh, Joseph; Rosenthal, Taryn C; Scheible, Kristin; Steiner, Laurie; Iqbal, M Anwar; McKinnon, Margaret L; Hamilton, Sara Jane; Schlade-Bartusiak, Kamilla; English, Dawn; Hendson, Glenda; Roeder, Elizabeth R; DeNapoli, Thomas S; Littlejohn, Rebecca Okashah; Wolff, Daynna J; Wagner, Carol L; Yeung, Alison; Francis, David; Fiorino, Elizabeth K; Edelman, Morris; Fox, Joyce; Hayes, Denise A; Janssens, Sandra; De Baere, Elfride; Menten, Björn; Loccufier, Anne; Vanwalleghem, Lieve; Moerman, Philippe; Sznajer, Yves; Lay, Amy S; Kussmann, Jennifer L; Chawla, Jasneek; Payton, Diane J; Phillips, Gael E; Brosens, Erwin; Tibboel, Dick; de Klein, Annelies; Maystadt, Isabelle; Fisher, Richard; Sebire, Neil; Male, Alison; Chopra, Maya; Pinner, Jason; Malcolm, Girvan; Peters, Gregory; Arbuckle, Susan; Lees, Melissa; Mead, Zoe; Quarrell, Oliver; Sayers, Richard; Owens, Martina; Shaw-Smith, Charles; Lioy, Janet; McKay, Eileen; de Leeuw, Nicole; Feenstra, Ilse; Spruijt, Liesbeth; Elmslie, Frances; Thiruchelvam, Timothy; Bacino, Carlos A; Langston, Claire; Lupski, James R; Sen, Partha; Popek, Edwina; Stankiewicz, Paweł

    2016-05-01

    Alveolar capillary dysplasia with misalignment of pulmonary veins (ACDMPV) is a lethal lung developmental disorder caused by heterozygous point mutations or genomic deletion copy-number variants (CNVs) of FOXF1 or its upstream enhancer involving fetal lung-expressed long noncoding RNA genes LINC01081 and LINC01082. Using custom-designed array comparative genomic hybridization, Sanger sequencing, whole exome sequencing (WES), and bioinformatic analyses, we studied 22 new unrelated families (20 postnatal and two prenatal) with clinically diagnosed ACDMPV. We describe novel deletion CNVs at the FOXF1 locus in 13 unrelated ACDMPV patients. Together with the previously reported cases, all 31 genomic deletions in 16q24.1, pathogenic for ACDMPV, for which parental origin was determined, arose de novo with 30 of them occurring on the maternally inherited chromosome 16, strongly implicating genomic imprinting of the FOXF1 locus in human lungs. Surprisingly, we have also identified four ACDMPV families with the pathogenic variants in the FOXF1 locus that arose on paternal chromosome 16. Interestingly, a combination of the severe cardiac defects, including hypoplastic left heart, and single umbilical artery were observed only in children with deletion CNVs involving FOXF1 and its upstream enhancer. Our data demonstrate that genomic imprinting at 16q24.1 plays an important role in variable ACDMPV manifestation likely through long-range regulation of FOXF1 expression, and may be also responsible for key phenotypic features of maternal uniparental disomy 16. Moreover, in one family, WES revealed a de novo missense variant in ESRP1, potentially implicating FGF signaling in the etiology of ACDMPV.

  18. WATER AVAILABILITY IN SOUTHERN PORTUGAL FOR DIFFERENT CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS SUBJECTED TO BIAS CORRECTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra Mourato

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Regional climate models provided precipitation and temperature time series for control (1961–1990 and scenario (2071–2100 periods. At southern Portu gal, the climate models in the control period systematically present higher temp eratures and lower precipitation than the observations. Therefore, the direct inpu t of climate model data into hydrological models might result in more severe scenarios for future water availability. Three bias correction methods (Delta Change, Dire ct Forcing and Hybrid are analysed and their performances in water availability impac t studies are assessed. The Delta Change method assumes that the observed series variab ility is maintained in the scenario period and is corrected by the evolution predicted by the climate models. The Direct Forcing method maintains the scenario series variabi lity, which is corrected by the bias found in the control period, and the Hybrid method maintains the control model series variability, which is corrected by the bias found in the control period and by the evolution predicted by the climate models. To assess the climate impacts in the water resources expected for the scenario period, a physically based spatially distributed hydrological model, SHETRAN, is used for runoff pro jections in a southern Portugal basin. The annual and seasonal runoff shows a runoff d ecrease in the scenario period, increasing the water shor tage that is already experienc ed. The overall annual reduction varies between –80% and –35%. In general, the results show that the runoff reductions obtained with climate models corrected with the Delt a Change method are highest but with a narrow range that varies between –80% and –5 2%.

  19. SU-E-J-45: The Correlation Between CBCT Flat Panel Misalignment and 3D Image Guidance Accuracy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kenton, O; Valdes, G; Yin, L; Teo, B; Brousmiche, S; Wikler, D

    2015-01-01

    Purpose To simulate the impact of CBCT flat panel misalignment on the image quality, the calculated correction vectors in 3D image guided proton therapy and to determine if these calibration errors can be caught in our QA process. Methods The X-ray source and detector geometrical calibration (flexmap) file of the CBCT system in the AdaPTinsight software (IBA proton therapy) was edited to induce known changes in the rotational and translational calibrations of the imaging panel. Translations of up to ±10 mm in the x, y and z directions (see supplemental) and rotational errors of up to ±3° were induced. The calibration files were then used to reconstruct the CBCT image of a pancreatic patient and CatPhan phantom. Correction vectors were calculated for the patient using the software’s auto match system and compared to baseline values. The CatPhan CBCT images were used for quantitative evaluation of image quality for each type of induced error. Results Translations of 1 to 3 mm in the x and y calibration resulted in corresponding correction vector errors of equal magnitude. Similar 10mm shifts were seen in the y-direction; however, in the x-direction, the image quality was too degraded for a match. These translational errors can be identified through differences in isocenter from orthogonal kV images taken during routine QA. Errors in the z-direction had no effect on the correction vector and image quality.Rotations of the imaging panel calibration resulted in corresponding correction vector rotations of the patient images. These rotations also resulted in degraded image quality which can be identified through quantitative image quality metrics. Conclusion Misalignment of CBCT geometry can lead to incorrect translational and rotational patient correction vectors. These errors can be identified through QA of the imaging isocenter as compared to orthogonal images combined with monitoring of CBCT image quality

  20. Misalignment of disposable pulse oximeter probes results in false saturation readings that influence anesthetic management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, Zhonghui; Baker, Keith; Sandberg, Warren S

    2009-11-01

    We report a small case series in which misaligned disposable pulse oximeter sensors gave falsely low saturation readings. In each instance, the sensor performed well during preinduction oxygen administration and the early part of the case, most notably by producing a plethysmographic trace rated as high quality by the oximeter software. The reported pulse oximeter oxygen saturation eventually decreased to concerning levels in each instance, but the anesthesiologists, relying on the reported high-quality signal, initially sought other causes for apparent hypoxia. They undertook maneuvers and diagnostic procedures later deemed unnecessary. When the malpositioned sensors were discovered and repositioned, the apparent hypoxia was quickly relieved in each case. We then undertook a survey of disposable oximeter sensors as patients entered the recovery room, and discovered malposition of more than 1 cm in approximately 20% of all sensors, without apparent consequence. We conclude that the technology is quite robust, but that the diagnosis of apparent hypoxia should include a quick check of oximeter position early on.

  1. Recurrence of alveolar capillary dysplasia with misalignment of pulmonary veins in two consecutive siblings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Nuncio Benevides

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Alveolar capillary dysplasia with misalignment of pulmonary veins (ACD/MPV is a rare, developmental lung disorder, which has been increasingly reported. This entity usually presents as neonatal persistent pulmonary hypertension that is unresponsive to treatment, and is known to be uniformly fatal. Recent discoveries in the genetic field, and intensive treatments, may change the natural course of this disease, permitting easier diagnosis and giving new hope for the dismal prognosis. The authors present two cases of siblings, with two years of difference, from different fathers - one of them was a first-degree and the other a second-degree cousin of the mother. Both patients were full-term babies born apparently without malformations and were sent to the nursery. Both siblings near 35 hours of age presented severe respiratory failure due to pulmonary hypertension. The outcome was fatal in both cases and at autopsy ACD/MPV was diagnosed. The authors call attention to this entity in the differential diagnosis of acute respiratory distress in early life.

  2. Studies on top quark pair production in pp collisions at the Large Hadron Collider with the ATLAS experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pataraia, Sophio

    2009-01-01

    We studied the performance of the track based alignment software of the ATLAS Inner Detector. To improve the final alignment additional vertex and beam constraints on the track reconstruction were investigated. We also investigated the b-tagging performance at an early stage of the detector operation. The dependence of the performance on the jet reconstruction algorithm, and on the Inner Detector misalignment were studied. A Top quark pair-production cross section measurement with and without b-tagging using the simulated ATLAS data corresponding to the luminosity of 200 pb -1 was carried out. We applied a simple and robust cut and count method suitable for the early phase of the detector operation. We investigated the systematic uncertainties on the cross section measurements due to Monte Carlo modeling of the precesses, for various scenarios of the alignment of the inner detector, for several jet reconstruction algorithms and for variations of the absolute jet energy scale. It yields an early cross-section measurement with a systematic error of less than 30%. (orig.)

  3. Studies on top quark pair production in pp collisions at the Large Hadron Collider with the ATLAS experiment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pataraia, Sophio

    2009-12-15

    We studied the performance of the track based alignment software of the ATLAS Inner Detector. To improve the final alignment additional vertex and beam constraints on the track reconstruction were investigated. We also investigated the b-tagging performance at an early stage of the detector operation. The dependence of the performance on the jet reconstruction algorithm, and on the Inner Detector misalignment were studied. A Top quark pair-production cross section measurement with and without b-tagging using the simulated ATLAS data corresponding to the luminosity of 200 pb{sup -1} was carried out. We applied a simple and robust cut and count method suitable for the early phase of the detector operation. We investigated the systematic uncertainties on the cross section measurements due to Monte Carlo modeling of the precesses, for various scenarios of the alignment of the inner detector, for several jet reconstruction algorithms and for variations of the absolute jet energy scale. It yields an early cross-section measurement with a systematic error of less than 30%. (orig.)

  4. Scenarios and innovative systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-11-01

    The purpose of this workshop is to present to the GEDEON community the scenarios for the deployment of innovative nuclear solutions. Both steady state situations and possible transitions from the present to new reactors and fuel cycles are considered. Innovative systems that satisfy improved natural resource utilization and waste minimization criteria will be described as well as the R and D orientations of various partners. This document brings together the transparencies of 17 communications given at this workshop: general policy for transmutation and partitioning; Amster: a molten salt reactor (MSR) concept; MSR capabilities; potentials and capabilities of accelerator driven systems (ADS); ADS demonstrator interest as an experimental facility; innovative systems: gas coolant technologies; Pu management in EPR; scenarios with thorium fuel; scenarios at the equilibrium state; scenarios for transition; partitioning and specific conditioning; management of separated radio-toxic elements; European programs; DOE/AAA (Advanced Accelerator Applications) program; OECD scenario studies; CEA research programs and orientations; partitioning and transmutation: an industrial point of view. (J.S.)

  5. Scenarios for Gluino Coannihilation

    CERN Document Server

    Ellis, John; Luo, Feng; Olive, Keith A

    2016-01-01

    We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in parti...

  6. Visualizing alternative phosphorus scenarios for future food security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tina-Simone Neset

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The impact of global phosphorus scarcity on food security has increasingly been the focus of scientific studies over the past decade. However, systematic analyses of alternative futures for phosphorus supply and demand throughout the food system are still rare and provide limited inclusion of key stakeholders. Addressing global phosphorus scarcity requires an integrated approach exploring potential demand reduction as well as recycling opportunities. This implies recovering phosphorus from multiple sources, such as food waste, manure and excreta, as well as exploring novel opportunities to reduce the long-term demand for phosphorus in food production such as changing diets. Presently, there is a lack of stakeholder and scientific consensus around priority measures. To therefore enable exploration of multiple pathways and facilitate a stakeholder dialogue on the technical, behavioral and institutional changes required to meet long-term future phosphorus demand, this paper introduces an interactive web-based tool, designed for visualizing global phosphorus scenarios in real-time. The interactive global phosphorus scenario tool builds on several demand and supply side measures that can be selected and manipulated interactively by the user. It provides a platform to facilitate stakeholder dialogue to plan for a soft landing and identify a suite of concrete priority options, such as investing in agricultural phosphorus use efficiency, or renewable fertilizers derived from phosphorus recovered from wastewater and food waste, to determine how phosphorus demand to meet future food security could be attained on a global scale in 2040 and 2070. This paper presents four example scenarios, including (1 the potential of full recovery of human excreta, (2 the challenge of a potential increase in non-food phosphorus demand, (3 the potential of a decreased animal product consumption, and (4 the potential decrease in phosphorus demand from increased efficiency

  7. Visualizing Alternative Phosphorus Scenarios for Future Food Security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neset, Tina-Simone; Cordell, Dana; Mohr, Steve; VanRiper, Froggi; White, Stuart

    2016-01-01

    The impact of global phosphorus scarcity on food security has increasingly been the focus of scientific studies over the past decade. However, systematic analyses of alternative futures for phosphorus supply and demand throughout the food system are still rare and provide limited inclusion of key stakeholders. Addressing global phosphorus scarcity requires an integrated approach exploring potential demand reduction as well as recycling opportunities. This implies recovering phosphorus from multiple sources, such as food waste, manure, and excreta, as well as exploring novel opportunities to reduce the long-term demand for phosphorus in food production such as changing diets. Presently, there is a lack of stakeholder and scientific consensus around priority measures. To therefore enable exploration of multiple pathways and facilitate a stakeholder dialog on the technical, behavioral, and institutional changes required to meet long-term future phosphorus demand, this paper introduces an interactive web-based tool, designed for visualizing global phosphorus scenarios in real time. The interactive global phosphorus scenario tool builds on several demand and supply side measures that can be selected and manipulated interactively by the user. It provides a platform to facilitate stakeholder dialog to plan for a soft landing and identify a suite of concrete priority options, such as investing in agricultural phosphorus use efficiency, or renewable fertilizers derived from phosphorus recovered from wastewater and food waste, to determine how phosphorus demand to meet future food security could be attained on a global scale in 2040 and 2070. This paper presents four example scenarios, including (1) the potential of full recovery of human excreta, (2) the challenge of a potential increase in non-food phosphorus demand, (3) the potential of decreased animal product consumption, and (4) the potential decrease in phosphorus demand from increased efficiency and yield gains in

  8. Climate change streamflow scenarios designed for critical period water resources planning studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlet, A. F.; Snover, A. K.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2003-04-01

    Long-range water planning in the United States is usually conducted by individual water management agencies using a critical period planning exercise based on a particular period of the observed streamflow record and a suite of internally-developed simulation tools representing the water system. In the context of planning for climate change, such an approach is flawed in that it assumes that the future climate will be like the historic record. Although more sophisticated planning methods will probably be required as time goes on, a short term strategy for incorporating climate uncertainty into long-range water planning as soon as possible is to create alternate inputs to existing planning methods that account for climate uncertainty as it affects both supply and demand. We describe a straight-forward technique for constructing streamflow scenarios based on the historic record that include the broad-based effects of changed regional climate simulated by several global climate models (GCMs). The streamflow scenarios are based on hydrologic simulations driven by historic climate data perturbed according to regional climate signals from four GCMs using the simple "delta" method. Further data processing then removes systematic hydrologic model bias using a quantile-based bias correction scheme, and lastly, the effects of random errors in the raw hydrologic simulations are removed. These techniques produce streamflow scenarios that are consistent in time and space with the historic streamflow record while incorporating fundamental changes in temperature and precipitation from the GCM scenarios. Planning model simulations based on these climate change streamflow scenarios can therefore be compared directly to planning model simulations based on the historic record of streamflows to help planners understand the potential impacts of climate uncertainty. The methods are currently being tested and refined in two large-scale planning exercises currently being conducted in the

  9. A working definition of scenario and a method of scenario construction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barr, G.E.; Dunn, E.

    1992-01-01

    The event-tree method of scenario construction has been chosen for the Yucca Mountain performance assessment. Its applicability and suitability to the problem are discussed and compared with those of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) method. The event-tree method is appropriate for an incompletely characterized site, where there must be an evolving understanding, over time, of the processes at work, for a site that may require analysis of details in specific context, and when the scenario functions to guide site characterization. Anticipating the eventual requirement for using the NRC method, we show that the event-tree method can be translated to the NRC format after final scenario screening

  10. Nonlinear finite element analysis of liquid sloshing in complex vehicle motion scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicolsen, Brynne; Wang, Liang; Shabana, Ahmed

    2017-09-01

    The objective of this investigation is to develop a new total Lagrangian continuum-based liquid sloshing model that can be systematically integrated with multibody system (MBS) algorithms in order to allow for studying complex motion scenarios. The new approach allows for accurately capturing the effect of the sloshing forces during curve negotiation, rapid lane change, and accelerating and braking scenarios. In these motion scenarios, the liquid experiences large displacements and significant changes in shape that can be captured effectively using the finite element (FE) absolute nodal coordinate formulation (ANCF). ANCF elements are used in this investigation to describe complex mesh geometries, to capture the change in inertia due to the change in the fluid shape, and to accurately calculate the centrifugal forces, which for flexible bodies do not take the simple form used in rigid body dynamics. A penalty formulation is used to define the contact between the rigid tank walls and the fluid. A fully nonlinear MBS truck model that includes a suspension system and Pacejka's brush tire model is developed. Specified motion trajectories are used to examine the vehicle dynamics in three different scenarios - deceleration during straight-line motion, rapid lane change, and curve negotiation. It is demonstrated that the liquid sloshing changes the contact forces between the tires and the ground - increasing the forces on certain wheels and decreasing the forces on other wheels. In cases of extreme sloshing, this dynamic behavior can negatively impact the vehicle stability by increasing the possibility of wheel lift and vehicle rollover.

  11. Graduate radiographers' expectations for role development - The potential impact of misalignment of expectation and valence on staff retention and service provision

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williamson, Keren; Mundy, Lynn A.

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study was to investigate the role development expectations of graduate radiographers with a view to predicting the potential impact of a misalignment of these expectations and valence on service delivery and staff retention. A final year cohort of radiography students completed a questionnaire designed to explore topics associated with role development opportunities. Method: Structured questionnaires, in the Likert scale format, utilised 20 attitude questions constructed to elicit information in relation to 3 main themes of investigation; expectation, valence and knowledge. Results: All participants (n = 37) stated an expectation for role development opportunities with 97.3% (n = 36) indicating that these expectations would be realised within 5 years of graduation and 75.7% (n = 28) within 2 years of graduation. A significant correlation between expectation for role development and job satisfaction was seen (p < 0.05). 81.1% (n = 30) of participants stated turnover intentions in order to meet their expectations. Conclusion: There is an expectation for role development opportunities for new graduates with a valence noted of the intrinsic reward of meeting these expectations. Expectation and valence are seen to be intrinsically linked with job satisfaction suggesting that misalignment of these would have a potentially negative impact on motivation and retention of the future radiography workforce demonstrating a positive correlation with withdrawal behaviours, including turnover intentions. In a relatively small professional group such as radiography the phenomenon of group cohesion may be strong suggesting that withdrawal behaviours may manifest as 'resignation in post', impacting on the quality of care and service provision for patients.

  12. The Young Substellar Companion ROXs 12 B: Near-infrared Spectrum, System Architecture, and Spin-Orbit Misalignment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowler, Brendan P.; Kraus, Adam L.; Bryan, Marta L.; Knutson, Heather A.; Brogi, Matteo; Rizzuto, Aaron C.; Mace, Gregory N.; Vanderburg, Andrew; Liu, Michael C.; Hillenbrand, Lynne A.; Cieza, Lucas A.

    2017-10-01

    ROXs 12 (2MASS J16262803-2526477) is a young star hosting a directly imaged companion near the deuterium-burning limit. We present a suite of spectroscopic, imaging, and time-series observations to characterize the physical and environmental properties of this system. Moderate-resolution near-infrared spectroscopy of ROXs 12 B from Gemini-North/NIFS and Keck/OSIRIS reveals signatures of low surface gravity including weak alkali absorption lines and a triangular H-band pseudocontinuum shape. No signs of Paβ emission are evident. As a population, however, we find that about half (46% ± 14%) of young (≲15 Myr) companions with masses ≲20 M Jup possess actively accreting subdisks detected via Paβ line emission, which represents a lower limit on the prevalence of circumplanetary disks in general, as some are expected to be in a quiescent phase of accretion. The bolometric luminosity of the companion and age of the host star ({6}-2+4 Myr) imply a mass of 17.5 ± 1.5 M Jup for ROXs 12 B based on hot-start evolutionary models. We identify a wide (5100 au) tertiary companion to this system, 2MASS J16262774-2527247, that is heavily accreting and exhibits stochastic variability in its K2 light curve. By combining v sin I * measurements with rotation periods from K2, we constrain the line-of-sight inclinations of ROXs 12 A and 2MASS J16262774-2527247 and find that they are misaligned by {{60}-11+7}^\\circ . In addition, the orbital axis of ROXs 12 B is likely misaligned from the spin axis of its host star, ROXs 12 A, suggesting that ROXs 12 B formed akin to fragmenting binary stars or in an equatorial disk that was torqued by the wide stellar tertiary. Some of the data presented herein were obtained at the W. M. Keck Observatory, which is operated as a scientific partnership among the California Institute of Technology, the University of California, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. The observatory was made possible by the generous financial support

  13. Discovering a misaligned CO outflow related to the red MSX source G034.5964-01.0292

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paron, S.; Ortega, M. E.; Petriella, A.; Rubio, M.

    2014-07-01

    Aims: The red MSX source G034.5964-01.0292 (MSXG34), catalogued as a massive young stellar object, was observed in molecular lines with the aim of discovering and studying molecular outflows. Methods: We mapped a region of 3'× 3' centred at MSXG34 using the Atacama Submillimeter Telescope Experiment in the 12CO J = 3-2 and HCO+J = 4-3 lines with an angular and spectral resolution of 22'' and 0.11 km s-1. Additionally, public 13CO J = 1-0 and near-IR UKIDSS data obtained from the Galactic Ring Survey and the WFCAM Sciencie Archive were analysed. Results: We found that the 12CO spectra towards the YSO present a self-absorption dip, as is common in star-forming regions, and spectral wings that indicate outflow activity. The HCO+ was detected only towards the MSXG34 position at vLSR ~ 14.2 km s-1, in coincidence with the 12CO absorption dip and approximately with the velocity of previous ammonia observations. HCO+ and NH3 are known to be enhanced in molecular outflows. When we analysed the spectral wings of the 12CO line, we discovered misaligned red- and blue-shifted molecular outflows associated with MSXG34. The near-IR emission shows a cone-like nebulosity composed of two arc-like features related to the YSO, which might be due to a cavity cleared in the circumstellar material by a precessing jet. This can explain the misalignment in the molecular outflows. From the analysis of the 13CO J = 1-0 data we suggest that the YSO is very likely related to a molecular clump ranging between 10 and 14 km s-1. This suggests that MSXG34, with an associated central velocity of about 14 km s-1, may be located in the background of this clump. Thus, the blue-shifted outflow is probably deflected by the interaction with dense gas along the line of sight. From a spectral energy distribution analysis of MSXG34 we found that its central object probably is an intermediate-mass protostar.

  14. Process-based evaluation of the ÖKS15 Austrian climate scenarios: First results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendlik, Thomas; Truhetz, Heimo; Jury, Martin; Maraun, Douglas

    2017-04-01

    The climate scenarios for Austria from the ÖKS15 project consists of 13 downscaled and bias-corrected RCMs from the EURO-CORDEX project. This dataset is meant for the broad public and is now available at the central national archive for climate data (CCCA Data Center). Because of this huge public outreach it is absolutely necessary to objectively discuss the limitations of this dataset and to publish these limitations, which should also be understood by a non-scientific audience. Even though systematical climatological biases have been accounted for by the Scaled-Distribution-Mapping (SDM) bias-correction method, it is not guaranteed that the model biases have been removed for the right reasons. If climate scenarios do not get the patterns of synoptic variability right, biases will still prevail in certain weather patterns. Ultimately this will have consequences for the projected climate change signals. In this study we derive typical weather types in the Alpine Region based on patterns from mean sea level pressure from ERA-INTERIM data and check the occurrence of these synoptic phenomena in EURO-CORDEX data and their corresponding driving GCMs. Based on these weather patterns we analyze the remaining biases of the downscaled and bias-corrected scenarios. We argue that such a process-based evaluation is not only necessary from a scientific point of view, but can also help the broader public to understand the limitations of downscaled climate scenarios, as model errors can be interpreted in terms of everyday observable weather.

  15. Reuse of conditionally released steel; proposals and evaluation of processes for manufacturing of steel elements and processes for construction of selected scenarios - 59130

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bezak, Peter; Ondra, Frantisek; Hajkova, Eva; Necas, Vladimir

    2012-01-01

    The project include systematic scenarios analysis of conditionally released materials from the decommissioning of nuclear installations and the creation of new knowledge in this field, which will be used for implementing projects for reuse of these materials. New knowledge includes data about materials from the decommissioning (types of materials and radiological data on the basis of analysis of various scenarios). Scenarios contain information about conditionally released materials, data of the external exposure of personnel who will assemble those structures and who will be use the constructions up to the target scenario. Scenarios assume guarantee that the final products will be placed on the current position for a very long period from 50 to 100 years. The paper presents the review of activities for manufacturing of various steel construction elements made of conditionally released steels and activities for realisation of selected scenarios for reuse of construction elements. The ingots after melting of decommissioned radioactive steel materials are as the starting material for manufacturing of steel components. Ingots from the controlled area will be melted into induction furnace and the mixture of liquid steel will be alloyed for achieve of required chemical parameters. Typical steel products suitable for established scenarios are steel rebar of concrete, steel profiles of various forms, railway rails and rolled steel sheets. Target scenarios include an analysis of staff exposure during installation of steel constructions as well as exposure of individual from critical groups of population during their exploitation. The various scenarios, provided within the scope of the CONRELMAT project are focused at the systematic analysis of the use of conditionally released steel from decommissioning of nuclear facilities. Scenarios are focused on research and development of model situations in constructions in the areas of transport, civil constructions, industry and

  16. Learning Through Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose

    level variables, this research corrects this void by investigating the dynamics of organizational learning through the lenses of a corporate scenario planning process. This enhances our scientific understanding of the role that scenario planning might play in the context of organizational learning......This project investigates the uses and effects of scenario planning in companies operating in highly uncertain and dynamic environments. Whereas previous research on scenario planning has fallen short of providing sufficient evidence of its mechanisms and effects on individual or organizational...... and strategic renewal. Empirical evidence of the various difficulties that learning flows has to overcome as it journeys through organizational and hierarchical levels are presented. Despite various cognitive and social psychological barriers identified along the way, the results show the novel...

  17. Constraining the Deforestation History of Europe: Evaluation of Historical Land Use Scenarios with Pollen-Based Land Cover Reconstructions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jed O. Kaplan

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Anthropogenic land cover change (ALCC is the most important transformation of the Earth system that occurred in the preindustrial Holocene, with implications for carbon, water and sediment cycles, biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services and regional and global climate. For example, anthropogenic deforestation in preindustrial Eurasia may have led to feedbacks to the climate system: both biogeophysical, regionally amplifying winter cold and summer warm temperatures, and biogeochemical, stabilizing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and thus influencing global climate. Quantification of these effects is difficult, however, because scenarios of anthropogenic land cover change over the Holocene vary widely, with increasing disagreement back in time. Because land cover change had such widespread ramifications for the Earth system, it is essential to assess current ALCC scenarios in light of observations and provide guidance on which models are most realistic. Here, we perform a systematic evaluation of two widely-used ALCC scenarios (KK10 and HYDE3.1 in northern and part of central Europe using an independent, pollen-based reconstruction of Holocene land cover (REVEALS. Considering that ALCC in Europe primarily resulted in deforestation, we compare modeled land use with the cover of non-forest vegetation inferred from the pollen data. Though neither land cover change scenario matches the pollen-based reconstructions precisely, KK10 correlates well with REVEALS at the country scale, while HYDE systematically underestimates land use with increasing magnitude with time in the past. Discrepancies between modeled and reconstructed land use are caused by a number of factors, including assumptions of per-capita land use and socio-cultural factors that cannot be predicted on the basis of the characteristics of the physical environment, including dietary preferences, long-distance trade, the location of urban areas and social organization.

  18. Scenario-based strategizing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lehr, Thomas; Lorenz, Ullrich; Willert, Markus

    2017-01-01

    For over 40 years, scenarios have been promoted as a key technique for forming strategies in uncertain en- vironments. However, many challenges remain. In this article, we discuss a novel approach designed to increase the applicability of scenario-based strategizing in top management teams. Drawi...... Ministry) and a firm affected by disruptive change (Bosch, leading global supplier of technology and solutions)....

  19. 40 Years of Shell Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-02-15

    Shell has been using scenario planning for four decades. During that time these scenarios have helped the company and governments across the world to make better strategic choices. Scenarios provide lenses that help see future prospects more clearly, make richer judgments and be more sensitive to uncertainties. Discover how the Shell Scenarios team has helped guide decision makers at major moments in history and get a peek at the team future focus, including the intricate relationship between energy, water and food.

  20. ITER safety and operational scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimomura, Y.; Saji, G.

    1998-01-01

    The safety and environmental characteristics of ITER and its operational scenario are described. Fusion has built-in safety characteristics without depending on layers of safety protection systems. Safety considerations are integrated in the design by making use of the intrinsic safety characteristics of fusion adequate to the moderate hazard inventories. In addition to this, a systematic nuclear safety approach has been applied to the design of ITER. The safety assessment of the design shows how ITER will safely accommodate uncertainties, flexibility of plasma operations, and experimental components, which is fundamental in ITER, the first experimental fusion reactor. The operation of ITER will progress step by step from hydrogen plasma operation with low plasma current, low magnetic field, short pulse and low duty factor without fusion power to deuterium-tritium plasma operation with full plasma current, full magnetic field, long pulse and high duty factor with full fusion power. In each step, characteristics of plasma and optimization of plasma operation will be studied which will significantly reduce uncertainties and frequency/severity of plasma transient events in the next step. This approach enhances reliability of ITER operation. (orig.)

  1. Scenarios in society, society in scenarios: toward a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garb, Yaakov; Pulver, Simone; VanDeveer, Stacy D

    2008-01-01

    Scenario analysis, an approach to thinking about alternative futures based on storyline-driven modeling, has become increasingly common and important in attempts to understand and respond to the impacts of human activities on natural systems at a variety of scales. The construction of scenarios is a fundamentally social activity, yet social scientific perspectives have rarely been brought to bear on it. Indeed, there is a growing imbalance between the increasing technical sophistication of the modeling elements of scenarios and the continued simplicity of our understanding of the social origins, linkages, and implications of the narratives to which they are coupled. Drawing on conceptual and methodological tools from science and technology studies, sociology and political science, we offer an overview of what a social scientific analysis of scenarios might include. In particular, we explore both how scenarios intervene in social microscale and macroscale contexts and how aspects of such contexts are embedded in scenarios, often implicitly. Analyzing the social 'work' of scenarios (i) can enhance the understanding of scenario developers and modeling practitioners of the knowledge production processes in which they participate and (ii) can improve the utility of scenario products as decision-support tools to actual, rather than imagined, decision-makers.

  2. Scenarios for remote gas production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tangen, Grethe; Molnvik, Mona J.

    2009-01-01

    The amount of natural gas resources accessible via proven production technology and existing infrastructure is declining. Therefore, smaller and less accessible gas fields are considered for commercial exploitation. The research project Enabling production of remote gas builds knowledge and technology aiming at developing competitive remote gas production based on floating LNG and chemical gas conversion. In this project, scenarios are used as basis for directing research related to topics that affect the overall design and operation of such plants. Selected research areas are safety, environment, power supply, operability and control. The paper summarises the scenario building process as a common effort among research institutes and industry. Further, it documents four scenarios for production of remote gas and outlines how the scenarios are applied to establish research strategies and adequate plans in a multidisciplinary project. To ensure relevance of the scenarios, it is important to adapt the building process to the current problem and the scenarios should be developed with extensive participation of key personnel.

  3. Anisotropic superconducting properties and fabrication of submicrometre bridges in misaligned Bi-Sr-Ca-Cu-O (2212) films

    CERN Document Server

    Moriya, M; Usami, K; Goto, T; Kobayashi, T

    2002-01-01

    In this paper, we report on misaligned Bi-Sr-Ca-Cu-O (2212) films that have been deposited on vicinal strontium titanate substrates using a dc sputtering system. We measured the temperature dependences of resistivity across and along the terrace, and only the resistivity across the terrace slightly decreased with the increase of the temperature in the normal state region. The estimated anisotropy parameter gamma was smaller than that of single crystal, but a significant anisotropy was observed. Submicrometre bridges were fabricated, and the temperature dependence of the critical current density was investigated. The value of the critical current density across the terrace is smaller than the value of that along the terrace. This suggests that the current partially flows along the c-axis. However, a multi-branch structure was not observed even after post annealing in oxygen atmosphere at low pressure.

  4. A Comparison of Quantitative and Qualitative Data from a Formative Usability Evaluation of an Augmented Reality Learning Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dragos Daniel IORDACHE

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The proliferation of augmented reality (AR technologies creates opportunities for the devel-opment of new learning scenarios. More recently, the advances in the design and implementation of desktop AR systems make it possible the deployment of such scenarios in primary and secondary schools. Usability evaluation is a precondition for the pedagogical effectiveness of these new technologies and requires a systematic approach for finding and fixing usability problems. In this paper we present an approach to a formative usability evaluation based on heuristic evaluation and user testing. The basic idea is to compare and integrate quantitative and qualitative measures in order to increase confidence in results and enhance the descriptive power of the usability evaluation report.

  5. Handling time misalignment and rank deficiency in liquid chromatography by multivariate curve resolution: Quantitation of five biogenic amines in fish

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinto, Licarion; Díaz Nieto, César Horacio; Zón, María Alicia; Fernández, Héctor; Ugulino de Araujo, Mario Cesar

    2016-01-01

    Biogenic amines (BAs) are used for identifying spoilage in food. The most common are tryptamine (TRY), 2-phenylethylamine (PHE), putrescine (PUT), cadaverine (CAD) and histamine (HIS). Due to lack of chromophores, chemical derivatization with dansyl was employed to analyze these BAs using high performance liquid chromatography with a diode array detector (HPLC-DAD). However, the derivatization reaction occurs with any primary or secondary amine, leading to co-elution of analytes and interferents with identical spectral profiles, and thus causing rank deficiency. When the spectral profile is the same and peak misalignment is present on the chromatographic runs, it is not possible to handle the data only with Multivariate Curve Resolution and Alternative Least Square (MCR-ALS), by augmenting the time, or the spectral mode. A way to circumvent this drawback is to receive information from another detector that leads to a selective profile for the analyte. To overcome both problems, (tri-linearity break in time, and spectral mode), this paper proposes a new analytical methodology for fast quantitation of these BAs in fish with HPLC-DAD by using the icoshift algorithm for temporal misalignment correction before MCR-ALS spectral mode augmented treatment. Limits of detection, relative errors of prediction (REP) and average recoveries, ranging from 0.14 to 0.50 µg mL"−"1, 3.5–8.8% and 88.08%–99.68%, respectively. These are outstanding results obtained, reaching quantification limits for the five BAs much lower than those established by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and World Health Organization (FAO/WHO), and the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), all without any pre-concentration steps. The concentrations of BAs in fish samples ranged from 7.82 to 29.41 µg g"−"1, 8.68–25.95 µg g"−"1, 4.76–28.54 µg g"−"1, 5.18–39.95 µg g"−"1 and 1.45–52.62 µg g"−"1 for TRY, PHE, PUT, CAD, and HIS, respectively. In

  6. Handling time misalignment and rank deficiency in liquid chromatography by multivariate curve resolution: Quantitation of five biogenic amines in fish

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pinto, Licarion [Laboratório de Automação e Instrumentação em Química Analítica e Quimiometria (LAQA), Universidade Federal da Paraíba, CCEN, Departamento de Química, Caixa Postal 5093, CEP 58051-970, João Pessoa, PB (Brazil); Díaz Nieto, César Horacio; Zón, María Alicia; Fernández, Héctor [Departamento de Química, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físico-Químicas y Naturales, Universidad Nacional de Río Cuarto, 5800, Río Cuarto (Argentina); Ugulino de Araujo, Mario Cesar, E-mail: laqa@quimica.ufpb.br [Laboratório de Automação e Instrumentação em Química Analítica e Quimiometria (LAQA), Universidade Federal da Paraíba, CCEN, Departamento de Química, Caixa Postal 5093, CEP 58051-970, João Pessoa, PB (Brazil)

    2016-01-01

    Biogenic amines (BAs) are used for identifying spoilage in food. The most common are tryptamine (TRY), 2-phenylethylamine (PHE), putrescine (PUT), cadaverine (CAD) and histamine (HIS). Due to lack of chromophores, chemical derivatization with dansyl was employed to analyze these BAs using high performance liquid chromatography with a diode array detector (HPLC-DAD). However, the derivatization reaction occurs with any primary or secondary amine, leading to co-elution of analytes and interferents with identical spectral profiles, and thus causing rank deficiency. When the spectral profile is the same and peak misalignment is present on the chromatographic runs, it is not possible to handle the data only with Multivariate Curve Resolution and Alternative Least Square (MCR-ALS), by augmenting the time, or the spectral mode. A way to circumvent this drawback is to receive information from another detector that leads to a selective profile for the analyte. To overcome both problems, (tri-linearity break in time, and spectral mode), this paper proposes a new analytical methodology for fast quantitation of these BAs in fish with HPLC-DAD by using the icoshift algorithm for temporal misalignment correction before MCR-ALS spectral mode augmented treatment. Limits of detection, relative errors of prediction (REP) and average recoveries, ranging from 0.14 to 0.50 µg mL{sup −1}, 3.5–8.8% and 88.08%–99.68%, respectively. These are outstanding results obtained, reaching quantification limits for the five BAs much lower than those established by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and World Health Organization (FAO/WHO), and the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), all without any pre-concentration steps. The concentrations of BAs in fish samples ranged from 7.82 to 29.41 µg g{sup −1}, 8.68–25.95 µg g{sup −1}, 4.76–28.54 µg g{sup −1}, 5.18–39.95 µg g{sup −1} and 1.45–52.62 µg g{sup −1} for TRY, PHE, PUT, CAD, and

  7. Systematics of transformability in factory planning; Systematik der Wandlungsfaehigkeit in der Fabrikplanung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hernandez Morales, R. [Hannover Univ. (DE). Inst. fuer Fabrikanlagen und Logistik (IFA)

    2003-07-01

    The thesis describes a systematics of transformability in facility planning, including the definition and classification of transformability. In like manner, applications have been elaborated in order to support the planification of transformability. Scenario management is applied for the first time in factory planning. The purpose is to establish facility scenarios so that, based on feasible future evolutions, transformation needs may be systematically detected and thought out. [German] Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit wird eine Systematik der Wandlungsfaehigkeit in der Fabrikplanung erarbeitet. Hierzu zaehlt die Definition und die Klassifikation dieses Erfolgsfaktors. Weiterhin werden Planungsansaetze erarbeitet, um die gezielte Steigerung der Wandlungsfaehigkeit zu unterstuetzen. Hierzu werden die Befaehiger zum Wandel sowie die Objekte des Wandels einer Fabrik abgeleitet. Darueber hinaus werden Ansaetze diskutiert, um ein Bezugssystem zur Bewertung von Wandlungsfaehigkeit zu konzipieren. Des Weiteren wird das Szenario-Management als elablierte Systematik in der strategischen Unternehmensplanung erstmalig auf die Fabrikplanung uebertragen. Zielsetzung ist dabei die Erstellung von Fabrikszenarien, um anhand plausibler Zukunftsentwicklungen die notwendige Wandlungsfaehigkeit einer Fabrik ableiten zu koennen. (orig.)

  8. 2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report: U.S. Electric Sector Scenario Exploration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sullivan, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Blair, Nate [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lantz, Eric [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mulcahy, David [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Porro, Gian [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-07-16

    This report is one of several products resulting from an initial effort to provide a consistent set of technology cost and performance data and to define a conceptual and consistent scenario framework that can be used in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) future analyses. The long-term objective of this effort is to identify a range of possible futures of the U.S. electricity sector in which to consider specific energy system issues through (1) defining a set of prospective scenarios that bound ranges of key technology, market, and policy assumptions and (2) assessing these scenarios in NREL’s market models to understand the range of resulting outcomes, including energy technology deployment and production, energy prices, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

  9. Alignment-free microbial phylogenomics under scenarios of sequence divergence, genome rearrangement and lateral genetic transfer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernard, Guillaume; Chan, Cheong Xin; Ragan, Mark A

    2016-07-01

    Alignment-free (AF) approaches have recently been highlighted as alternatives to methods based on multiple sequence alignment in phylogenetic inference. However, the sensitivity of AF methods to genome-scale evolutionary scenarios is little known. Here, using simulated microbial genome data we systematically assess the sensitivity of nine AF methods to three important evolutionary scenarios: sequence divergence, lateral genetic transfer (LGT) and genome rearrangement. Among these, AF methods are most sensitive to the extent of sequence divergence, less sensitive to low and moderate frequencies of LGT, and most robust against genome rearrangement. We describe the application of AF methods to three well-studied empirical genome datasets, and introduce a new application of the jackknife to assess node support. Our results demonstrate that AF phylogenomics is computationally scalable to multi-genome data and can generate biologically meaningful phylogenies and insights into microbial evolution.

  10. Scenario Development for Water Resources Planning and Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, S.; Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Y.; Hartman, H.; Wagener, T.; Gupta, H.

    2006-12-01

    The main objective of scenario development for water resources is to inform policy-makers about the implications of various policies to inform decision-making. Although there have been a number of studies conducted in the relatively-new and recent field of scenario analysis and development, very few of those have been explicitly applied to water resource issues. More evident is the absence of an established formal approach to develop and apply scenarios. Scenario development is a process that evaluates possible future states of the world by examining several feasible scenarios. A scenario is a projection of various physical and socioeconomic conditions that describe change from the current state to a future state. In this paper, a general framework for scenario development with special emphasis on applications to water resources is considered. The process comprises several progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. Several characteristics of scenarios that are important in describing scenarios are also taken into account; these include scenario types, scenario themes, scenario likelihoods and scenario categories. A hindrance to the adoption of a unified framework for scenario development is inconsistency in the terminology used by scenario developers. To address this problem, we propose a consistent terminology of basic and frequent terms. Outreach for this formal approach is partially maintained through an interactive community website that seeks to educate potential scenario developers about the scenario development process, share and exchange information and resources on scenarios to foster a multidisciplinary community of scenario developers, and establish a unified framework for scenario development with regards to terminology and guidelines. The website provides information on scenario development, current scenario-related activities, key water resources scenario

  11. A Sectoral Micro-Economic Approach to Scenario Selection and Development: The Case of the Greek Power Sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandros Flamos

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Generating policy-relevant scenarios is instrumental for understanding and developing policy measures. These are especially relevant to the power sector. Practitioners have been working on policy-relevant scenarios for the ex-ante assessment of policy measures in a meaningful way for end-users related to climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. This paper presents a method for generating such policy relevant scenarios by focusing on the actor-contingent elements of the scenarios, i.e., the developments that are within the control of system actors to change or bring about. Several scenario techniques focusing on systematic-formalized or quantitative approaches have been published on this front over the past few years. Here, we introduce a methodology that is best suited for the assessment of the expected effect of different policy measures on the involved stakeholders’ behavior as well as for the analysis of the interactions between different policy measures as reflected on their impact on the strength and direction of the provided incentives. The applicability of our methodology is demonstrated for the case of the Greek power market. It was further evaluated in view of the challenges related to the issues of generation capacity adequacy and increased fiscal deficit. The strategic implications of the proposed approach concern the demonstration of the benefits from adopting a policy assessment methodology that focus on stakeholder expectations and interactions.

  12. Exposure scenarios for workers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marquart, H.; Northage, C.; Money, C.

    2007-01-01

    The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate

  13. Regional climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Somot, S.

    2005-01-01

    Because studies of the regional impact of climate change need higher spatial resolution than that obtained in standard global climate change scenarios, developing regional scenarios from models is a crucial goal for the climate modelling community. The zoom capacity of ARPEGE-Climat, the Meteo-France climate model, allows use of scenarios with a horizontal resolution of about 50 km over France and the Mediterranean basin. An IPCC-A2 scenario for the end of the 21. century in France shows higher temperatures in each season and more winter and less summer precipitation than now. Tuning the modelled statistical distributions to observed temperature and precipitation allows us to study changes in the frequency of extreme events between today's climate and that at the end of century. The frequency of very hot days in summer will increase. In particular, the frequency of days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C will be multiplied by a factor of 10, on average. In our scenario, the Toulouse area and Provence might see one quarter of their summer days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C. (author)

  14. A Systematic, Automated Network Planning Method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm, Jens Åge; Pedersen, Jens Myrup

    2006-01-01

    This paper describes a case study conducted to evaluate the viability of a systematic, automated network planning method. The motivation for developing the network planning method was that many data networks are planned in an adhoc manner with no assurance of quality of the solution with respect...... structures, that are ready to implement in a real world scenario, are discussed in the end of the paper. These are in the area of ensuring line independence and complexity of the design rules for the planning method....

  15. Scenario development and evaluation for the NPP Krsko revised decommissioning program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levanat, I.; Lokner, V.; Subasic, D.

    2004-01-01

    In this first revision, several integrated scenarios of the NPP Krsko dismantling and waste management were developed and analyzed in order to estimate the decommissioning program (DP) costs and to propose an appropriate funding plan. Most dismantling technologies and cost estimates were derived from the original decommissioning plan adopted in 1996. The LILW disposal cost estimates, however, rely on the tunnel type facility design which was developed in Slovenia a few years ago, whereas the SF repository design for this DP was adapted from the Swedish deep disposal concept. The starting assumptions for this DP were that the LILW repository would be licensed by 2013, the NPP would be permanently shut down in 2023, and the SF repository would become available in 2030. The boundary conditions also specified that DP should first re-evaluate the SID strategy from the original plan (Strategy Immediate Dismantling with immediate SF disposal, but also with a long period of on-site decay storage for the activated components, so that it actually terminates only after 96 years), and then modify it to achieve truly prompt decommissioning in which all planned activities should be completed within about 15 years after the NPP shut-down. In addition, the option of SF export to a third country should be introduced in all DP scenarios, as a realistic alternative to SF disposal into the local repository (in Slovenia or in Croatia). And finally, dry storage of SF for some 30 years before disposal or export, in an independent installation on unspecified location, should be evaluated within the DP sensitivity analysis. After a thorough analysis of the original SID strategy, it became clear that substantial modifications would be necessary in order to meet the boundary conditions while complying with the specified design and technologies of the assumed LILW and SF disposal facilities. Therefore, a systematic procedure for development and financial evaluation of feasible scenarios was

  16. Graduate radiographers' expectations for role development - The potential impact of misalignment of expectation and valence on staff retention and service provision

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williamson, Keren [Department of Radiography, School of Healthcare Studies, Cardiff University, Heath Park, Cardiff CF14 4XN (United Kingdom)], E-mail: williamsonk2@cardiff.ac.uk; Mundy, Lynn A. [Department of Radiography, School of Healthcare Studies, Cardiff University, Heath Park, Cardiff CF14 4XN (United Kingdom)

    2010-02-15

    Purpose: The purpose of this study was to investigate the role development expectations of graduate radiographers with a view to predicting the potential impact of a misalignment of these expectations and valence on service delivery and staff retention. A final year cohort of radiography students completed a questionnaire designed to explore topics associated with role development opportunities. Method: Structured questionnaires, in the Likert scale format, utilised 20 attitude questions constructed to elicit information in relation to 3 main themes of investigation; expectation, valence and knowledge. Results: All participants (n = 37) stated an expectation for role development opportunities with 97.3% (n = 36) indicating that these expectations would be realised within 5 years of graduation and 75.7% (n = 28) within 2 years of graduation. A significant correlation between expectation for role development and job satisfaction was seen (p < 0.05). 81.1% (n = 30) of participants stated turnover intentions in order to meet their expectations. Conclusion: There is an expectation for role development opportunities for new graduates with a valence noted of the intrinsic reward of meeting these expectations. Expectation and valence are seen to be intrinsically linked with job satisfaction suggesting that misalignment of these would have a potentially negative impact on motivation and retention of the future radiography workforce demonstrating a positive correlation with withdrawal behaviours, including turnover intentions. In a relatively small professional group such as radiography the phenomenon of group cohesion may be strong suggesting that withdrawal behaviours may manifest as 'resignation in post', impacting on the quality of care and service provision for patients.

  17. Nuclear power prospects and potential: scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogner, Hans-Hogler; McDonald, Alan; )

    2002-01-01

    This paper outlines a range of scenarios describing what the world's energy system might look in the middle of the century, and what nuclear energy's most profitable role might be. The starting point is the 40 non-greenhouse-gas-mitigation scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Given their international authorship and comprehensive review by governments and scientific experts, the SRES scenarios are the state of the art in long-term energy scenarios

  18. The extended wedge method: atomic force microscope friction calibration for improved tolerance to instrument misalignments, tip offset, and blunt probes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khare, H S; Burris, D L

    2013-05-01

    One of the major challenges in understanding and controlling friction is the difficulty in bridging the length and time scales of macroscale contacts and those of the single asperity interactions they comprise. While the atomic force microscope (AFM) offers a unique ability to probe tribological surfaces in a wear-free single-asperity contact, instrument calibration challenges have limited the usefulness of this technique for quantitative nanotribological studies. A number of lateral force calibration techniques have been proposed and used, but none has gained universal acceptance due to practical considerations, configuration limitations, or sensitivities to unknowable error sources. This paper describes a simple extension of the classic wedge method of AFM lateral force calibration which: (1) allows simultaneous calibration and measurement on any substrate, thus eliminating prior tip damage and confounding effects of instrument setup adjustments; (2) is insensitive to adhesion, PSD cross-talk, transducer/piezo-tube axis misalignment, and shear-center offset; (3) is applicable to integrated tips and colloidal probes; and (4) is generally applicable to any reciprocating friction coefficient measurement. The method was applied to AFM measurements of polished carbon (99.999% graphite) and single crystal MoS2 to demonstrate the technique. Carbon and single crystal MoS2 had friction coefficients of μ = 0.20 ± 0.04 and μ = 0.006 ± 0.001, respectively, against an integrated Si probe. Against a glass colloidal sphere, MoS2 had a friction coefficient of μ = 0.005 ± 0.001. Generally, the measurement uncertainties ranged from 10%-20% and were driven by the effect of actual frictional variation on the calibration rather than calibration error itself (i.e., due to misalignment, tip-offset, or probe radius).

  19. Can scenario-planning support community-based natural resource management? Experiences from three countries in Latin America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kerry A. Waylen

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Community-based natural resource management (CBNRM is a concept critical to managing social-ecological systems but whose implementation needs strengthening. Scenario planning is one approach that may offer benefits relevant to CBNRM but whose potential is not yet well understood. Therefore, we designed, trialed, and evaluated a scenario-planning method intended to support CBNRM in three cases, located in Colombia, Mexico, and Argentina. Implementing scenario planning was judged as worthwhile in all three cases, although aspects of it were challenging to facilitate. The benefits generated were relevant to strengthening CBNRM: encouraging the participation of local people and using their knowledge, enhanced consideration of and adaptation to future change, and supporting the development of systems thinking. Tracing exactly when and how these benefits arose was challenging, but two elements of the method seemed particularly useful. First, using a systematic approach to discuss how drivers of change may affect local social-ecological systems helped to foster systems thinking and identify connections between issues. Second, explicitly focusing on how to use and respond to scenarios helped identify specific practical activities, or "response options," that would support CBNRM despite the pressures of future change. Discussions about response options also highlighted the need for support by other actors, e.g., policy groups: this raised the question of when and how other actors and other sources of knowledge should be involved in scenario planning, so as to encourage their buy-in to actions identified by the process. We suggest that other CBNRM initiatives may benefit from adapting and applying scenario planning. However, these initiatives should be carefully monitored because further research is required to understand how and when scenario-planning methods may produce benefits, as well as their strengths and weaknesses versus other methods.

  20. Scenario-based roadmapping assessing nuclear technology development paths for future nuclear energy system scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Den Durpel, Luc; Roelofs, Ferry; Yacout, Abdellatif

    2009-01-01

    Nuclear energy may play a significant role in a future sustainable energy mix. The transition from today's nuclear energy system towards a future more sustainable nuclear energy system will be dictated by technology availability, energy market competitiveness and capability to achieve sustainability through the nuclear fuel cycle. Various scenarios have been investigated worldwide each with a diverse set of assumptions on the timing and characteristics of new nuclear energy systems. Scenario-based roadmapping combines the dynamic scenario-analysis of nuclear energy systems' futures with the technology roadmap information published and analysed in various technology assessment reports though integrated within the nuclear technology roadmap Nuclear-Roadmap.net. The advantages of this combination is to allow mutual improvement of scenario analysis and nuclear technology roadmapping providing a higher degree of confidence in the assessment of nuclear energy system futures. This paper provides a description of scenario-based roadmapping based on DANESS and Nuclear-Roadmap.net. (author)

  1. Energy scenarios for New Zealand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harris, G. S.; Ellis, M. J.; Scott, G. C.; Wood, J. R.

    1977-10-15

    Three energy scenarios have been formulated for New Zealand. They concentrate on those aspects of society which have a direct bearing on energy, emphasizing three important issues: major shifts in society's values in relation to material wealth, pollution, and resources. The scenarios make assumptions that certain overall social conditions would prevail so that all decisions of government, the private sector, and individuals would be governed by the requirement to conform to the scenario theme in a way not possible under existing social and political conditions. The 3 scenarios are known as Continuation, Low New Zealand Pollution, and Limited Growth.

  2. Specimen's plane misaligned installation solution based on charge fluctuation inside SEM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Haojian; Liu, Yanting; Yang, Yuanyuan; Wang, Panbing; Shen, Yajing

    2018-04-01

    Precise specimen's installation is a sticking point to ensure the characterization accuracy of the in-situ material property test. Although it is common knowledge that specimen's plane misaligned installation (PMI) would cause extra force loading during mechanical testing, there are few effective solutions available to deal with it at the current stage, especially during the in-situ scanning electron microscopy (SEM) test. Taking into consideration the charge fluctuation phenomenon under SEM, this paper proposes a highlight area variation (HAV) method for specimen deformation judgment, i.e., the specimen deformation is defined when the highlight area changes greater than 20% of the initial value of the specimen surface. Three types of specimens with different resistivities, i.e., human hair (electrical resistivity ˜3 × 1012 Ω cm), optical fiber (electrical resistivity ˜1017 Ω cm), and magnetic wire (electrical resistivity ˜2 × 10-5 Ω cm), are chosen to verify the effectiveness of the HAV method. Furthermore, combined with the developed robot-aided alignment system, the specimen's PMI problem can also be solved. In the demonstration, the human hair specimen is installed across two specimen stages and its in-situ twisting (in 360°) test is implemented. The results clearly indicate that the HAV method and the robot-aided alignment system are practical and reliable, and the specimen can be aligned on the same plane and installed precisely with accuracy up to 3 μm. This method will benefit the in-situ SEM material mechanical property test and has a significant impact in fundamental material research.

  3. Mind the Gap. A systematic review to identify usability and safety challenges and practices during electronic health record implementation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratwani, Raj; Fairbanks, Terry; Savage, Erica; Adams, Katie; Wittie, Michael; Boone, Edna; Hayden, Andrew; Barnes, Janey; Hettinger, Zach; Gettinger, Andrew

    2016-11-16

    Decisions made during electronic health record (EHR) implementations profoundly affect usability and safety. This study aims to identify gaps between the current literature and key stakeholders' perceptions of usability and safety practices and the challenges encountered during the implementation of EHRs. Two approaches were used: a literature review and interviews with key stakeholders. We performed a systematic review of the literature to identify usability and safety challenges and best practices during implementation. A total of 55 articles were reviewed through searches of PubMed, Web of Science and Scopus. We used a qualitative approach to identify key stakeholders' perceptions; semi-structured interviews were conducted with a diverse set of health IT stakeholders to understand their current practices and challenges related to usability during implementation. We used a grounded theory approach: data were coded, sorted, and emerging themes were identified. Conclusions from both sources of data were compared to identify areas of misalignment. We identified six emerging themes from the literature and stakeholder interviews: cost and resources, risk assessment, governance and consensus building, customization, clinical workflow and usability testing, and training. Across these themes, there were misalignments between the literature and stakeholder perspectives, indicating major gaps. Major gaps identified from each of six emerging themes are discussed as critical areas for future research, opportunities for new stakeholder initiatives, and opportunities to better disseminate resources to improve the implementation of EHRs. Our analysis identified practices and challenges across six different emerging themes, illustrated important gaps, and results suggest critical areas for future research and dissemination to improve EHR implementation.

  4. Energy scenarios: a prospective outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salomon, Thierry; Claustre, Raphael; Charru, Madeleine; Sukov, Stephane; Marignac, Yves; Fink, Meike; Bibas, Ruben; Le Saux, Gildas

    2011-01-01

    A set of articles discusses the use of energy scenarios: how useful they can be to describe a possible future and even to gather the involved actors, how they have been used in France in the past (for planning or prediction purposes, with sometimes some over-assessed or contradictory results, without considering any decline of nuclear energy, or by setting an impossible equation in the case of the Grenelle de l'Environnement), how the scenario framework impacts its content (depending on the approach type: standard, optimization, bottom-up, top-down, or hybrid). It also discusses the issue of choice of hypotheses on growth-based and de-growth-based scenarios, outlines how energy saving is a key for a sustainable evolution. Two German scenarios regarding electricity production (centralisation or decentralisation) and French regional scenarios for Nord-Pas-de-Calais are then briefly discussed

  5. Negatep: A Scenario for Combating Global Warming; Le scenario Negatep. Un scenario de lutte contre le rechauffement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acket, C.; Bacher, P. [Sauvons Le Climat, 92 - Boulogne Billancourt (France)

    2011-07-15

    There have been an increasing number of foresight exercises in the field of energy and global warming in recent years, as we have seen from the articles devoted to these questions by Futuribles in 2011 (both in this special issue and in the April number). It is certainly the case that the goals for greenhouse-gas emission reduction are rather ambitious, particularly in France, it being the aim of the 2005 French framework law on energy to reduce carbon gas discharges by a factor of four. Among these scenarios, the Negatep scenario developed by Claude Acket and Pierre Bacher from the 'Sauvons le climat' [Let's save the climate] Association proposes to achieve this ('factor 4') goal in France by 2050 by reducing fossil fuel use by 75% and replacing this as quickly as possible with electricity produced from non-carbon-gas-emitting sources - chiefly, nuclear power and renewables. The authors lay out their goals here, backed up by figures, comparing these with the reference scenario. They also show the path that must be followed to arrive at these goals, particularly in the residential and tertiary sectors, and in transport and industry (through control of needs and recourse to alternative energy sources). They close by comparing the Negatep scenario with two other more recent scenarios aimed also at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, on the one hand in Europe, and on the other in Germany. The comparison confirms that they were right to rely on electricity as a substitute for oil, but gives them cause for concern in respect of the consequences (formidable in their view) that the replacement of nuclear power and coal energy by intermittent renewable energies might have in Europe, both with regard to costs and to the effects on the power network. (authors)

  6. Echo, reverberation and echo to reverberation ratio for isovelocity waveguides related to Weston memorial Workshop scenarios A.2.I and A2.IV

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ainslie, M.A.; Ellis, D.D.; Ehrlich, J.; Schippers, P.; Hjelmervik, K.T.; Colin, M.E.G.D.

    2013-01-01

    The need for benchmarks of propagation loss was addressed by a series ofworkshops in the 1980s. The main results of those workshops were a set of well-defined propagation scenarios and their corresponding solutions. The availability of these benchmarks permitted the systematic evaluation of the

  7. Engaging Personas and Narrative Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Lene

    2004-01-01

    design ideas. The concept of engaging personas and narrative scenario explores personas in the light of what what it is to identify with and have empathy with a character. The concept of narrative scenarios views the narrative as aid for exploration of design ideas. Both concepts incorporate...... a distinktion between creating, writing and reading. Keywords: personas, scenarios, user-centered design, HCI...

  8. Mars base buildup scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blacic, J.D.

    1985-01-01

    Two surface base build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second scenario, early development of an infrastructure to exploite the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first, but once begun develops rapidly aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station

  9. Epidemiological and Economic Evaluation of Alternative On-Farm Management Scenarios for Ovine Footrot in Switzerland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dana Zingg

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Footrot is a multifactorial infectious disease mostly affecting sheep, caused by the bacteria Dichelobacter nodosus. It causes painful feet lesions resulting in animal welfare issues, weight loss, and reduced wool production, which leads to a considerable economic burden in animal production. In Switzerland, the disease is endemic and mandatory coordinated control programs exist only in some parts of the country. This study aimed to compare two nationwide control strategies and a no intervention scenario with the current situation, and to quantify their net economic effect. This was done by sequential application of a maximum entropy model (MEM, epidemiological simulation, and calculation of net economic effect using the net present value method. Building upon data from a questionnaire, the MEM revealed a nationwide footrot prevalence of 40.2%. Regional prevalence values were used as inputs for the epidemiological model. Under the application of the nationwide coordinated control program without (scenario B and with (scenario C improved diagnostics [polymerase chain reaction (PCR test], the Swiss-wide prevalence decreased within 10 years to 14 and 5%, respectively. Contrary, an increase to 48% prevalence was observed when terminating the current control strategies (scenario D. Management costs included labor and material costs. Management benefits included reduction of fattening time and improved animal welfare, which is valued by Swiss consumers and therefore reduces societal costs. The net economic effect of the alternative scenarios B and C was positive, the one of scenario D was negative and over a period of 17 years quantified at CHF 422.3, 538.3, and −172.3 million (1 CHF = 1.040 US$, respectively. This implies that a systematic Swiss-wide management program under the application of the PCR diagnostic test is the most recommendable strategy for a cost-effective control of footrot in Switzerland.

  10. From scenarios to components

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fahland, D.

    2010-01-01

    Scenario-based modeling has evolved as an accepted paradigm for developing complex systems of various kinds. Its main purpose is to ensure that a system provides desired behavior to its users. A scenario is generally understood as a behavioral requirement, denoting a course of actions that shall

  11. Italian energy scenarios comparative evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Contaldi, Mario

    2005-01-01

    This paper reviews some representative scenarios of the evolution of the Italian primary energy consumption, updated recently. After an overview of the main macroeconomics assumptions the scenario results are cross checked at sectorial level, with a brief discussion of the underlining data and energy intensity trends. The emissions of CO 2 , SO 2 and NO x resulting from the considered scenarios are also reported and discussed [it

  12. Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pérez-Soba, Marta; Maas, Rob

    2015-01-01

    We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

  13. SCENARIO PLANNING AS LEARNING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Lourenço Junior

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Scenario Planning has been increasingly used, from its introduction to the decision process as effective tools to test decisions, and improve performance in a dynamic environment (Chermack, 2005. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the potential of an experimental Scenario Planning Model to mobilize, encourage and add more content to the organization’s decision making process – mainly with respect to Strategic Plans of two governmental institutions, a pharmaceutical company and a technology education foundation.  This study describes the application stages of a hybrid scenario-planning model – herein referred to as Planning as Learning – via action-research, showing the scenarios resulting from the experiment and describes the main results of an assessment of such practice. In order to do that, two well-established Scenario Planning models (Prospective school and Shell’s model were analyzed. They were used as a reference for the proposition and application of an experimental model in the two study objects. A questionnaire was used to assess the technique impact. It was possible to obtain high levels of reliability. In-depth interviews were also conducted with the participants. At the end, the results confirmed the model efficiency as a basis for decision making in the competitive environment in which the two institutions are inserted, also to encourage the learning process as a group, as observed throughout the work.

  14. The negaWatt 2011 scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2016-03-01

    This article presents the approach adopted for the negaWatt scenario and its obtained results. It is based on sobriety (energy savings), on energy efficiency, and on the use of renewable energies. After having outlined the different reasons for an energy transition (increasing energy consumption, critics and risks related to nuclear energy, and high potential of renewable energies), the scenario is presented with its main principles. The scenario identifies possibilities ranging from half to two thirds of energy saving in the different energy consuming sectors. The building sector is presented as a major issue. The transport is described as a sector to be addressed on the long term. The necessary change of the industry sector is highlighted. The agriculture sector is presented as being at the heart of transition. Energy usages are to become sober, efficient and renewable. The scenario is based on a high rate development of renewable energies, while fossil energies are to become marginal, nuclear is to be progressively and reasonably given up, and networks are to become compatible to ensure the scenario success. Thus, the scenario demonstrates the feasibility of a 100 pc sustainable assessment for primary energy, complies with stakes and objectives by 2050. The cost of energy transition is briefly discussed

  15. Rethinking the role of scenarios: Participatory scripting of low-carbon scenarios for France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mathy, Sandrine; Fink, Meike; Bibas, Ruben

    2015-01-01

    This article considers the usefulness of low-carbon scenarios in public decision-making. They may be useful as a product-oriented trajectory. The scenarios on the agenda of the 2013 Energy Debate in France belong to this category. But a scenario may also be process-oriented, in the sense that its scripting process helps build consensus and a minimum level of agreement. We have scripted scenarios using a codevelopment method, involving about 40 stakeholders from the private and public sectors, and from the state: NGOs, consumer groups, trade unions, banks and local authorities. They selected policies they considered acceptable for achieving 75% greenhouse gases emission reductions in 2050. These policies were then integrated in the Imaclim-R-France technico-economic simulation model, as part of a high or moderate acceptability scenario. In the first case emissions were cut by between 58% and 72% by 2050; in the second case by between 68% and 81%, depending on the energy price assumptions. All these measures benefited jobs and economic growth, swiftly and durably cutting household spending on energy services. This offers a solid basis for gaining acceptability for low carbon trajectories; the process constitutes also a framework for consolidating collective learning centering on the acceptability of climate policies. - Highlights: • The article develops a ‘process-oriented’ low carbon scenario for France. • Stakeholders define a set of sectoral and fiscal ‘acceptable’ climate policies. • These policies are integrated within a technico-economic model Imaclim-R-France. • Economic impacts and CO 2 emission reductions are computed. •The co-development methodology favors joint production of solutions and shared vision-building

  16. Carbon-constrained scenarios. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-05-01

    This report provides the results of the study entitled 'Carbon-Constrained Scenarios' that was funded by FONDDRI from 2004 to 2008. The study was achieved in four steps: (i) Investigating the stakes of a strong carbon constraint for the industries participating in the study, not only looking at the internal decarbonization potential of each industry but also exploring the potential shifts of the demand for industrial products. (ii) Developing an hybrid modelling platform based on a tight dialog between the sectoral energy model POLES and the macro-economic model IMACLIM-R, in order to achieve a consistent assessment of the consequences of an economy-wide carbon constraint on energy-intensive industrial sectors, while taking into account technical constraints, barriers to the deployment of new technologies and general economic equilibrium effects. (iii) Producing several scenarios up to 2050 with different sets of hypotheses concerning the driving factors for emissions - in particular the development styles. (iv) Establishing an iterative dialog between researchers and industry representatives on the results of the scenarios so as to improve them, but also to facilitate the understanding and the appropriate use of these results by the industrial partners. This report provides the results of the different scenarios computed in the course of the project. It is a partial synthesis of the work that has been accomplished and of the numerous exchanges that this study has induced between modellers and stakeholders. The first part was written in April 2007 and describes the first reference scenario and the first mitigation scenario designed to achieve stabilization at 450 ppm CO 2 at the end of the 21. century. This scenario has been called 'mimetic' because it has been build on the assumption that the ambitious climate policy would coexist with a progressive convergence of development paths toward the current paradigm of industrialized countries: urban sprawl, general

  17. A new climate dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Heinke

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (ΔTglob has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines, systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a narrow range of temperature change and/or a reduced ensemble of climate models. Here, a newly composed dataset of climate change scenarios is presented that addresses the specific requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob. A pattern-scaling approach is applied to extract generalised patterns of spatially explicit change in temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from 19 Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs. The patterns are combined with scenarios of global mean temperature increase obtained from the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 to create climate scenarios covering warming levels from 1.5 to 5 degrees above pre-industrial levels around the year 2100. The patterns are shown to sufficiently maintain the original AOGCMs' climate change properties, even though they, necessarily, utilise a simplified relationships between ΔTglob and changes in local climate properties. The dataset (made available online upon final publication of this paper facilitates systematic analyses of climate change impacts as it covers a wider and finer-spaced range of climate change scenarios than the original AOGCM simulations.

  18. Autotransplantation of a Supernumerary Tooth to Replace a Misaligned Incisor with Abnormal Dimensions and Morphology: 2-Year Follow-Up

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Ebru Tirali

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Autotransplantation is a viable treatment option to restore esthetics and function impaired by abnormally shaped teeth when a suitable donors tooth is available. This paper describes the autotransplantation and 2-year follow-up of a supernumerary maxillary incisor as a replacement to a misaligned maxillary incisor with abnormal crown morphology and size. The supernumerary incisor was immediately autotransplanted into the extraction site of the large incisor and was stabilized with a bonded semirigid splint for 2 weeks. Fixed orthodontic therapy was initiated 3 months after autotransplantation. Ideal alignment of the incisors was accomplished after 6 months along with radiographic evidence of apical closure and osseous/periodontal regeneration. In autogenous tooth transplantation, a successful clinical outcome can be achieved if the cases are selected and treated properly.

  19. Spiral Arms, Infall, and Misalignment of the Circumbinary Disk from the Circumstellar Disks in the Protostellar Binary System L1551 NE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Takakuwa, Shigehisa [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Kagoshima University, 1-21-35 Korimoto, Kagoshima, Kagoshima 890-0065 (Japan); Saigo, Kazuya [ALMA Project Office, National Astronomical Observatory of Japan, Osawa 2-21-1, Mitaka, Tokyo 181-8588 (Japan); Matsumoto, Tomoaki [Faculty of Humanity and Environment, Hosei University, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 102-8160 (Japan); Saito, Masao [Nobeyama Radio Observatory, National Astronomical Observatory of Japan, Minamimaki, Minamisaku, Nagano 384-1805 (Japan); Lim, Jeremy [Department of Physics, University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam Road (Hong Kong); Hanawa, Tomoyuki [Center for Frontier Science, Chiba University, Inage-ku, Chiba 263-8522 (Japan); Yen, Hsi-Wei; Ho, Paul T. P., E-mail: takakuwa@sci.kagoshima-u.ac.jp [Academia Sinica Institute of Astronomy and Astrophysics, P.O. Box 23-141, Taipei 10617, Taiwan (China)

    2017-03-01

    We report the ALMA Cycle 2 observations of the Class I binary protostellar system L1551 NE in the 0.9 mm continuum, C{sup 18}O (3–2), {sup 13}CO (3–2), SO (7{sub 8}–6{sub 7}), and CS (7–6) emission. At 0.″18 (=25 au) resolution, ∼4 times higher than that of our Cycle 0 observations, the circumbinary disk (CBD) as seen in the 0.9 mm emission is shown to be composed of a northern and a southern spiral arm, with the southern arm connecting to the circumstellar disk (CSD) around Source B. The western parts of the spiral arms are brighter than the eastern parts, suggesting the presence of an m = 1 spiral mode. In the C{sup 18}O emission, the infall gas motions in the interarm regions and the outward gas motions in the arms are identified. These observed features are well reproduced with our numerical simulations, where gravitational torques from the binary system impart angular momenta to the spiral-arm regions and extract angular momenta from the interarm regions. Chemical differentiation of the CBD is seen in the four molecular species. Our Cycle 2 observations have also resolved the CSDs around the individual protostars, and the beam-deconvolved sizes are 0.″29 × 0.″19 (=40 × 26 au) (P.A. = 144°) and 0.″26 × 0.″20 (=36 × 27 au) (P.A. = 147°) for Sources A and B, respectively. The position and inclination angles of these CSDs are misaligned with those of the CBD. The C{sup 18}O emission traces the Keplerian rotation of the misaligned disk around Source A.

  20. Biomass Scenario Model | Energy Analysis | NREL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biomass Scenario Model Biomass Scenario Model The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique range of lignocellulosic biomass feedstocks into biofuels. Over the past 25 years, the corn ethanol plant matter (lignocellulosic biomass) to fermentable sugars for the production of fuel ethanol

  1. Energy scenarios for Colombia - Environmental Aspects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Ricardo A; Vesga A, Daniel R; Boman, Ulf

    2000-01-01

    The planning unit of the Colombian ministry of energy -UPME -has done an energy scenario project for Colombia with a 20-year horizon (vision year 2020) in this project the scenario methodology was used in a systemic way involving a great number of local and international energy experts. As a result four energy scenarios were designed and in all of them the possible evolution of all energy was analyzed. In this article a description of the used methodology is presented with the developed scenarios. Also a discussion of the long-range future environmental considerations in the energy sector, taking into account the developed scenarios, is presented. Finally some conclusions and recommendations are presented

  2. Application of scenario-neutral methods to quantify impacts of climate change on water resources in East Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ascott, M.; Macdonald, D.; Lapworth, D.; Tindimugaya, C.

    2017-12-01

    Quantification of the impact of climate change on water resources is essential for future resource planning. Unfortunately, climate change impact studies in African regions are often hindered by the extent in variability in future rainfall predictions, which also diverge from current drying trends. To overcome this limitation, "scenario-neutral" methods have been developed which stress a hydrological system using a wide range of climate futures to build a "climate response surface". We developed a hydrological model and scenario-neutral framework to quantify climate change impacts on river flows in the Katonga catchment, Uganda. Using the lumped catchment model GR4J, an acceptable calibration to historic daily flows (1966 - 2010, NSE = 0.69) was achieved. Using a delta change approach, we then systematically changed rainfall and PET inputs to develop response surfaces for key metrics, developed with Ugandan water resources planners (e.g. Q5, Q95). Scenarios from the CMIP5 models for 2030s and 2050s were then overlain on the response surface. The CMIP5 scenarios show consistent increases in temperature but large variability in rainfall increases, which results in substantial variability in increases in river flows. The developed response surface covers a wide range of climate futures beyond the CMIP5 projections, and can help water resources planners understand the sensitivity of water resource systems to future changes. When future climate scenarios are available, these can be directly overlain on the response surface without the need to re-run the hydrological model. Further work will consider using scenario-neutral approaches in more complex, semi-distributed models (e.g. SWAT), and will consider land use and socioeconomic change.

  3. Social Foundation of Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rowland, Nicholas James; Spaniol, Matthew Jon

    2017-01-01

    In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors acknowle......In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors...... from science and technology studies (STS) on knowledge production, the authors explain transition from one phase to the next and iteration between and within phases based on social negotiation. To this end, the authors examine the interplay between the “scenario development” phase and the “scenario use......” phase of a planning process with a non-governmental organization in Denmark. The upshot for facilitators is practical insight into how transition between phases and phase iteration in scenario planning can be identified, leveraged, and, thus, managed. The upshot for scholars is a related insight...

  4. IPCC Special report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon

    2001-01-01

    This special report on emissions scenarios (SRES) is intended to reflect the most recent trends in driving forces of emissions; population projections economic development, and structural and technological change. It serves as an update to IS92 scenarios developed by IPCC in the early 1990s to illustrate a plausible range of future greenhouse gas emissions. This update is based on a review of the literature and the development of a database of over 400 global and regional scenarios; 190 of these extend from 1900 to 2100 and thus fed into the development of the narrative scenarios and storylines. Based on the literature review, a set of four alternative scenario families, having a total of 40 emission scenarios have been developed. Each scenario family includes a narrative storyline which describes a demographic, social. economic, technological, environmental and policy future. Characteristic features of each of the four families are summarized and a comparison is made between the IS92 and SRES. One of the main conclusions of this recent scenario construction effort is the realization that alternative combinations of main scenario driving forces can lead to similar levels of GHG emissions by the end of the 21st century, and that scenarios with different underlying assumptions can result in very similar climate change

  5. Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dexter, Franklin; Wachtel, Ruth E; Epstein, Richard H

    2011-01-07

    No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR) management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems data, and the usefulness of the approach. A process of event-based knowledge elicitation was developed to assess OR management decision-making that may reduce the efficiency of use of OR time. Hypothetical scenarios addressing every OR management decision influencing OR efficiency were created from published examples. Scenarios are adapted, so that cues about conditions are accurate and appropriate for each facility (e.g., if OR 1 is used as an example in a scenario, the listed procedure is a type of procedure performed at the facility in OR 1). Adaptation is performed automatically using the facility's OR information system or anesthesia information management system (AIMS) data for most scenarios (43 of 45). Performing the needs assessment takes approximately 1 hour of local managers' time while they decide if their decisions are consistent with the described scenarios. A table of contents of the indexed scenarios is created automatically, providing a simple version of problem solving using case-based reasoning. For example, a new OR manager wanting to know the best way to decide whether to move a case can look in the chapter on "Moving Cases on the Day of Surgery" to find a scenario that describes the situation being encountered. Scenarios have been adapted and used at 22 hospitals. Few changes in decisions were needed to increase the efficiency of use of OR time. The few changes were heterogeneous among hospitals, showing the usefulness of individualized assessments. Our technical advance is the

  6. Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Epstein Richard H

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems data, and the usefulness of the approach. Methods A process of event-based knowledge elicitation was developed to assess OR management decision-making that may reduce the efficiency of use of OR time. Hypothetical scenarios addressing every OR management decision influencing OR efficiency were created from published examples. Scenarios are adapted, so that cues about conditions are accurate and appropriate for each facility (e.g., if OR 1 is used as an example in a scenario, the listed procedure is a type of procedure performed at the facility in OR 1. Adaptation is performed automatically using the facility's OR information system or anesthesia information management system (AIMS data for most scenarios (43 of 45. Performing the needs assessment takes approximately 1 hour of local managers' time while they decide if their decisions are consistent with the described scenarios. A table of contents of the indexed scenarios is created automatically, providing a simple version of problem solving using case-based reasoning. For example, a new OR manager wanting to know the best way to decide whether to move a case can look in the chapter on "Moving Cases on the Day of Surgery" to find a scenario that describes the situation being encountered. Results Scenarios have been adapted and used at 22 hospitals. Few changes in decisions were needed to increase the efficiency of use of OR time. The few changes were heterogeneous among hospitals, showing the usefulness of

  7. Scenarios for gluino coannihilation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ellis, John [Theoretical Particle Physics and Cosmology Group, Department of Physics, King’s College London, London, WC2R 2LS United Kingdom (United Kingdom); Theory Division, CERN,Geneva 23, CH-1211 (Switzerland); Evans, Jason L. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota,Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); Luo, Feng [Theory Division, CERN,Geneva 23, CH-1211 (Switzerland); Olive, Keith A. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota,Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States)

    2016-02-11

    We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in particular, as well as the appearance of other dark matter (co)annihilation processes. Nevertheless, LSP masses m{sub χ}≲8 TeV with the correct dark matter density are quite possible. In the case of pure gravity mediation with additional vector-like supermultiplets, changes to the anomaly-mediated gluino mass and the threshold effects associated with these states can make the gluino almost degenerate with the LSP, and we find a similar upper bound.

  8. Scenario group summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thorndike, A.

    1976-01-01

    A scenario is given for ISABELLE which provides a plausible sequence of events from FY 1980 to 1990. No doubt reality will be quite different. The scenario is based on the construction schedule of the 1976 proposal. Assembly and testing of the accelerator will occur until the end of FY 1983, and the next six years will provide pp interactions for the initial high energy physics research. By 1990 any temporary conditions associated with start-up of ISABELLE should be a thing of the past and all experimental capabilities fully utilized

  9. Scenario group summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thorndike, A.

    1976-01-01

    The scenario is given which provides a plausible sequence of events for ISABELLE from FY 1980 to 1990. No doubt reality will be quite different. The scenario is based on the construction schedule of the 1976 proposal. Assembly and testing of the accelerator will occur until the end of FY 1983, and the next six years will provide pp interactions for the initial high energy physics research. By 1990 any temporary conditions associated with start-up of ISABELLE should be a thing of the past and all experimental capabilities fully utilized

  10. Air quality impacts of distributed power generation in the South Coast Air Basin of California 1: Scenario development and modeling analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, M. A.; Carreras-Sospedra, M.; Medrano, M.; Brouwer, J.; Samuelsen, G. S.; Dabdub, D.

    Distributed generation (DG) is generally defined as the operation of many small stationary power generators throughout an urban air basin. Although DG has the potential to supply a significant portion of the increased power demands in California and the rest of the United States, it may lead to increased levels of in-basin pollutants and adversely impact urban air quality. This study focuses on two main objectives: (1) the systematic characterization of DG installation in urban air basins, and (2) the simulation of potential air quality impacts using a state-of-the-art three-dimensional computational model. A general and systematic approach is devised to construct five realistic and 21 spanning scenarios of DG implementation in the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) of California. Realistic scenarios reflect an anticipated level of DG deployment in the SoCAB by the year 2010. Spanning scenarios are developed to determine the potential impacts of unexpected outcomes. Realistic implementations of DG in the SoCAB result in small differences in ozone and particulate matter concentrations in the basin compared to the baseline simulations. The baseline accounts for population increase, but does not consider any future emissions control measures. Model results for spanning implementations with extra high DG market penetration show that domain-wide ozone peak concentrations increase significantly. Also, air quality impacts of spanning implementations when DG operate during a 6-h period are larger than when the same amount of emissions are introduced during a 24-h period.

  11. Transitional dispersive scenarios driven by mesoscale flows on complex terrain under strong dry convective conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. L. Palau

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available By experimentation and modelling, this paper analyses the atmospheric dispersion of the SO2 emissions from a power plant on complex terrain under strong convective conditions, describing the main dispersion features as an ensemble of "stationary dispersive scenarios" and reformulating some "classical" dispersive concepts to deal with the systematically monitored summer dispersive scenarios in inland Spain. The results and discussions presented arise from a statistically representative study of the physical processes associated with the multimodal distribution of pollutants aloft and around a 343-m-tall chimney under strong dry convective conditions in the Iberian Peninsula. This paper analyses the importance of the identification and physical implications of transitional periods for air quality applications. The indetermination of a transversal plume to the preferred transport direction during these transitional periods implies a small (or null physical significance of the classical definition of horizontal standard deviation of the concentration distribution.

  12. Economic assessment of energetic scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grandjean, Alain; Bureau, Dominique; Schubert, Katheline; Henriet, Fanny; Maggiar, Nicolas; Criqui, Patrick; Le Teno, Helene; Baumstark, Luc; Crassous, Renaud; Roques, Fabien

    2013-09-01

    This publication gathers contributions proposed by different members of the Economic Council for a Sustainable Development (CEDD) on the issue of energy transition, and more precisely on scenarios elaborated with respect to energy transition. A first set of contributions addresses models of energy transition (assessment of scenario costs to reach a factor 4; the issue of de-carbonation of energy consumption; study of ELECsim, a tool to highlight costs of scenarios of evolution of the electric power system). The second part addresses arbitrations and choice assessment (the importance of social and economic impacts of scenarios; challenges related to the joint definition of the discount rate and of the evolution of carbon value in time; the issue of assessment of the integration of renewable energies into the power system)

  13. Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin; Warren, Drake Edward; Hayden, Nancy Kay; Passell, Howard D.; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Backus, George A.

    2017-01-01

    This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

  14. Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Warren, Drake Edward [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hayden, Nancy Kay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Passell, Howard D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-01-01

    This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

  15. Assessment of nuclear power scenarios allowing for matrix behavior in radiological impact modeling of disposal scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tronche, E.; Boussier, H.

    2000-01-01

    Under the provisions of the 1991 French radioactive waste management law, various fuel cycle scenarios will be assessed and compared in terms of feasibility, flexibility, cost, and ultimate waste radio-toxic inventory. The latter criterion may be further broken down into 'potential radio-toxic inventory' (the radio-toxic inventory of all the radionuclides produced) and 'residual radio-toxic inventory' (the radionuclide fraction reaching the biosphere after migration from the repository). The innovative scientific contribution of this study is to consider a third type of radio-toxic inventory: the potential radio-toxic inventory after conditioning, i.e. taking into account the containment capacity of the radionuclide conditioning matrices. The matrix fraction subjected to alteration over time determines the potential for radionuclide release, hence the notion of the potential radio-toxic inventory after conditioning. An initial comparison of possible scenarios is proposed by considering orders of magnitude for the radionuclide containment capacity of the disposal matrices and for their mobilization potential. All the scenarios investigated are normalized to the same annual electric power production so that a legitimate comparison can be established for the ultimate wasteform produced per year of operation. This approach reveals significant differences among the scenarios considered that do not appear when only the raw potential radio-toxic inventory is taken into account. The matrix containment performance has a decisive effect on the final impact of a given scenario or type of scenario. Pu recycling scenarios thus reduce the potential radio-toxicity by roughly a factor of 50 compared with an open cycle; the gain rises to a factor of about 300 for scenarios in which Pu and the minor actinides are recycled. Interestingly, the results obtained by the use of a dedicated containment matrix for the minor actinides in a scenario limited to Pu recycling were comparable to

  16. Climate scenarios for California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayan, Daniel R.; Maurer, Ed; Dettinger, Mike; Tyree, Mary; Hayhoe, Katharine; Bonfils, Celine; Duffy, Phil; Santer, Ben

    2006-01-01

    Possible future climate changes in California are investigated from a varied set of climate change model simulations. These simulations, conducted by three state-of-the-art global climate models, provide trajectories from three greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. These scenarios and the resulting climate simulations are not “predictions,” but rather are a limited sample from among the many plausible pathways that may affect California’s climate. Future GHG concentrations are uncertain because they depend on future social, political, and technological pathways, and thus the IPCC has produced four “families” of emission scenarios. To explore some of these uncertainties, emissions scenarios A2 (a medium-high emissions) and B1 (low emissions) were selected from the current IPCC Fourth climate assessment, which provides several recent model simulations driven by A2 and B1 emissions. The global climate model simulations addressed here were from PCM1, the Parallel Climate Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) group, and CM2.1 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL).

  17. Development of a real-time simulation tool towards self-consistent scenario of plasma start-up and sustainment on helical fusion reactor FFHR-d1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goto, T.; Miyazawa, J.; Sakamoto, R.; Suzuki, Y.; Suzuki, C.; Seki, R.; Satake, S.; Huang, B.; Nunami, M.; Yokoyama, M.; Sagara, A.; the FFHR Design Group

    2017-06-01

    This study closely investigates the plasma operation scenario for the LHD-type helical reactor FFHR-d1 in view of MHD equilibrium/stability, neoclassical transport, alpha energy loss and impurity effect. In 1D calculation code that reproduces the typical pellet discharges in LHD experiments, we identify a self-consistent solution of the plasma operation scenario which achieves steady-state sustainment of the burning plasma with a fusion gain of Q ~ 10 was found within the operation regime that has been already confirmed in LHD experiment. The developed calculation tool enables systematic analysis of the operation regime in real time.

  18. Scenario analysis for biodiversity conservation: a social-ecological system approach in the Australian Alps.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Michael; Lockwood, Michael; Moore, Susan A; Clement, Sarah

    2015-03-01

    Current policy interventions are having limited success in addressing the ongoing decline in global biodiversity. In part, this is attributable to insufficient attention being paid to the social and governance processes that drive decisions and can undermine their implementation. Scenario planning that draws on social-ecological systems (SES) analysis provides a useful means to systematically explore and anticipate future uncertainties regarding the interaction between humans and biodiversity outcomes. However, the effective application of SES models has been limited by the insufficient attention given to governance influences. Understanding the influence governance attributes have on the future trajectory of SES is likely to assist choice of effective interventions, as well as needs and opportunities for governance reform. In a case study in the Australian Alps, we explore the potential of joint SES and scenario analyses to identify how governance influences landscape-scale biodiversity outcomes. Novel aspects of our application of these methods were the specification of the focal system's governance attributes according to requirements for adaptive capacity, and constraining scenarios according to the current governance settings while varying key social and biophysical drivers. This approach allowed us to identify how current governance arrangements influence landscape-scale biodiversity outcomes, and establishes a baseline from which the potential benefits of governance reform can be assessed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. The Scenario Approach in the State Regulation of Addictive Goods Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roman Yuryevich Skokov

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The article presents alternative scenarios of the state regulation of the markets for addictive goods and services which include alcohol and alcohol-containing products, tobacco products, energy drinks, drugs, gambling games. The author reveals the content of inertial, modernizational, monopolistic and prohibitionist scenarios, and systematizes the effective measures which are used in the international practice of state regulation for reducing the number of challenges connected with the consumption of addictive goods and for adequate use of industrial capacities. The analysis conducted in the article touched upon the traditional practical measures on reducing shadow economic activity, realizing home-made products and substitutes, regulating the economic and physical availability, restricting advertising, sponsorship and sales promotion, as well as the measures aimed at the change of consumer behavior in the conditions associated with increased risk, prevention, diagnosis, treatment and rehabilitation. It is determined that none of these measures is not implemented to the full extent in Russia because they are used under the conditions of informal and shadow offers, corruption in government bodies, lobbying, administrative barriers and low-level administrative and business ethics. The author composed a rating of measures effectiveness under alternative scenarios. On the basis of this analysis and the assessment of the development and status of modern society, the theory and practice of regulating addictive goods markets, the conclusion was made about the socio-economic advantages of the state monopoly which allows to minimize the private interest in increasing sales and gaining over-profits, adequately reflects the public interest, standardizes and unifies physical and economic accessibility of these goods and services, proves its efficiency in domestic practice and the experience of Scandinavian countries.

  20. Misalignments of purpose and power in an early Canadian interprofessional education initiative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whyte, Sarah; Paradis, Elise; Cartmill, Carrie; Kuper, Ayelet; Boon, Heather; Hart, Corinne; Razack, Saleem; Pipher, Mandy; Whitehead, Cynthia R

    2017-12-01

    Interprofessional education (IPE) has been widely incorporated into health professional curricula and accreditation standards despite an arguably thin base of evidence regarding its clinical effects, theoretical underpinnings, and social implications. To better understand how and why IPE first took root, but failed to grow, this study examines one of the earliest documented IPE initiatives, which took place at the University of British Columbia between 1960 and 1975. We examined a subset of 110 texts (academic literature, grey literature, and unpublished records) from a larger study that uses Critical Discourse Analysis to trace the emergence of IPE in Canada. We asked how IPE was promoted and received, by whom, for what purposes, and to what effects. Our analysis demonstrates that IPE was promoted as a response to local challenges for the Faculty of Medicine as well as national challenges for Canada's emerging public healthcare system. These dual exigencies enabled the IPE initiative, but they shaped it in somewhat divergent ways: the former gave rise to its core component (a health sciences centre) and the latter its ultimate purpose (increasing the role of non-medical professions in primary care). Reception of the initiative was complicated by a further tension: nurses and allied health professionals were sometimes represented as independent experts with unique knowledge and skills, and sometimes as assistants or substitutes for medical doctors. We relate the successes and frustrations of this early initiative to particular (mis)alignments of purpose and relationships of power, some of which continue to enable and constrain IPE today.

  1. Assessment of hi-resolution multi-ensemble statistical downscaling regional climate scenarios over Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dairaku, K.

    2017-12-01

    The Asia-Pacific regions are increasingly threatened by large scale natural disasters. Growing concerns that loss and damages of natural disasters are projected to further exacerbate by climate change and socio-economic change. Climate information and services for risk assessments are of great concern. Fundamental regional climate information is indispensable for understanding changing climate and making decisions on when and how to act. To meet with the needs of stakeholders such as National/local governments, spatio-temporal comprehensive and consistent information is necessary and useful for decision making. Multi-model ensemble regional climate scenarios with 1km horizontal grid-spacing over Japan are developed by using CMIP5 37 GCMs (RCP8.5) and a statistical downscaling (Bias Corrected Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD)) to investigate uncertainty of projected change associated with structural differences of the GCMs for the periods of historical climate (1950-2005) and near future climate (2026-2050). Statistical downscaling regional climate scenarios show good performance for annual and seasonal averages for precipitation and temperature. The regional climate scenarios show systematic underestimate of extreme events such as hot days of over 35 Celsius and annual maximum daily precipitation because of the interpolation processes in the BCSD method. Each model projected different responses in near future climate because of structural differences. The most of CMIP5 37 models show qualitatively consistent increase of average and extreme temperature and precipitation. The added values of statistical/dynamical downscaling methods are also investigated for locally forced nonlinear phenomena, extreme events.

  2. Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rosa, Isabel M.D.; Pereira, Henrique M.; Ferrier, Simon; Alkemade, Rob; Acosta, Lilibeth A.; Akcakaya, H. Resit; Den Belder, Eefje; Fazel, Asghar M.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harfoot, Mike; Harhash, Khaled A.; Harrison, Paula A.; Hauck, Jennifer; Hendriks, Rob J.J.; Hernández, Gladys; Jetz, Walter; Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, Sylvia I.; Kim, Hyejin; King, Nicholas; Kok, Marcel T.J.; Kolomytsev, Grygoriy O.; Lazarova, Tanya; Leadley, Paul; Lundquist, Carolyn J.; García Márquez, Jaime; Meyer, Carsten; Navarro, Laetitia M.; Nesshöver, Carsten; Ngo, Hien T.; Ninan, Karachepone N.; Palomo, Maria G.; Pereira, Laura M.; Peterson, Garry D.; Pichs, Ramon; Popp, Alexander; Purvis, Andy; Ravera, Federica; Rondinini, Carlo; Sathyapalan, Jyothis; Schipper, Aafke M.; Seppelt, Ralf; Settele, Josef; Sitas, Nadia; Van Vuuren, Detlef|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X

    2017-01-01

    Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales.

  3. Trust and the illusive force of scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selin, Cynthia Lea

    2006-01-01

    formulation and decision-making. By definition, scenarios are possible versions of the future so judging and evaluating scenarios is thus not about revealing truthfulness, but rather demonstrating trust, reliability, credibility in the absence of truth and in the face of varied influences and possible...... becomes interesting is how scenarios convey authority and trustworthiness. How is it that scenarios attain and maintain power to compel people to action, change their worldview, or influence the directions of decisions or consensus? This piece examines the process, participation and products of scenario...

  4. Earthquake Scenarios Based Upon the Data and Methodologies of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rukstales, K. S.; Petersen, M. D.; Frankel, A. D.; Harmsen, S. C.; Wald, D. J.; Quitoriano, V. R.; Haller, K. M.

    2011-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project (NSHMP) utilizes a database of over 500 faults across the conterminous United States to constrain earthquake source models for probabilistic seismic hazard maps. Additionally, the fault database is now being used to produce a suite of deterministic ground motions for earthquake scenarios that are based on the same fault source parameters and empirical ground motion prediction equations used for the probabilistic hazard maps. Unlike the calculated hazard map ground motions, local soil amplification is applied to the scenario calculations based on the best available Vs30 (average shear-wave velocity down to 30 meters) mapping, or in some cases using topographic slope as a proxy. Systematic outputs include all standard USGS ShakeMap products, including GIS, KML, XML, and HAZUS input files. These data are available from the ShakeMap web pages with a searchable archive. The scenarios are being produced within the framework of a geographic information system (GIS) so that alternative scenarios can readily be produced by altering fault source parameters, Vs30 soil amplification, as well as the weighting of ground motion prediction equations used in the calculations. The alternative scenarios can then be used for sensitivity analysis studies to better characterize uncertainty in the source model and convey this information to decision makers. By providing a comprehensive collection of earthquake scenarios based upon the established data and methods of the USGS NSHMP, we hope to provide a well-documented source of data which can be used for visualization, planning, mitigation, loss estimation, and research purposes.

  5. The role of fusion power in energy scenarios. Proposed method and review of existing scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lako, P; Ybema, J.R.; Seebregts, A.J.

    1998-04-01

    The European Commission wishes more insight in the potential role of fusion energy in the second half of the 21st century. Therefore, several scenario studies are carried out in the so-called macro-task Long Term Scenarios to investigate the potential role of fusion power in the energy system. The main contribution of ECN to the macro-task is to perform a long term energy scenario study for Western Europe with special focus on the role of fusion power. This interim report gives some methodological considerations for such an analysis. A discussion is given on the problems related to the long time horizon of the scenario study such as the forecast of technological innovations, the selection of appropriate discount rates and the links with climate change. Key parameters which are expected to have large effects on the role and cost-effectiveness are discussed in general terms. The key parameters to be varied include level and structure of energy demand, availability and prices of fossil energy, CO2 reduction policy, discount rates, cost and potential of renewable energy sources, availability of fission power and CO2 capture and disposal and the cost and the maximum rate of market growth of fusion power. The scenario calculations are to be performed later in the project with the help of an existing cost minimisation model of the Western European energy system. This MARKAL model is briefly introduced. The results of the model calculations are expected to make clear under which combinations of scenario parameters fusion power is needed and how large the expected financial benefits will be. The present interim report also gives an evaluation of existing energy scenarios with respect to the role of fusion power. 18 refs

  6. Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rosa, Isabel M.D.; Pereira, Henrique Miguel; Ferrier, Simon; Alkemade, J.R.M.; Acosta, Lilibeth A.; Resit Akcakaya, H.; Belder, den E.; Fazel, Asghar M.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harfoot, Mike; Harhash, Khaled A.; Harrison, Paula A.; Hauck, Jennifer; Hendriks, Rob J.J.; Hernández, Gladys; Jetz, Walter; Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S.I.S.E.; Kim, Hyejin; King, Nicholas; Kok, Marcel; Kolomytsev, Grygoriy O.; Lazarova, Tanya; Leadley, Paul; Lundquist, Carolyn J.; García Márquez, Jaime; Meyer, Carsten; Navarro, Laetitia M.; Nesshöver, Carsten; Ngo, Hien T.; Ninan, Karachepone N.; Palomo, Maria G.; Pereira, Laura; Peterson, G.D.; Pichs, Ramon; Popp, Alexander; Purvis, Andy; Ravera, Federica; Rondinini, Carlo; Sathyapalan, Jyothis; Schipper, Aafke; Seppelt, Ralf; Settele, Josef; Sitas, Nadia; Vuuren, van D.

    2017-01-01

    Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship
    with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales.

  7. Swedish long-term low carbon scenario - Exploratory study on opportunities and barriers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gode, Jenny; Saernholm, Erik; Zetterberg, Lars; Arnell, Jenny; Zetterberg, Therese

    2010-12-15

    In 2009, the Swedish government proposed a vision of reaching zero net emissions of greenhouse gases in the year 2050. However, there are few details on concrete actions after 2020. In the light of the long investment cycles associated with energy, housing, transport infrastructure and heavy industry, we believe that the society now needs to start identifying possible pathways for reaching this vision. The pathways also need to be investigated in terms of their feasibility and consequences. The aim of our study has been to develop and elaborate on one potential future energy scenario where Sweden minimises the use of fossil fuels in 2050 and to identify opportunities and barriers. The scenario we present is one of several possible scenarios and is obviously not a forecast. Our purpose is not to show a likely development, but rather to illustrate, by example, a society that is largely independent of fossil fuels and what would be required to get there. In a next step, more detailed scenarios as well as accurate impact assessments are needed. For example, the impact of high bioenergy utilisation needs to be carefully examined. The results also show several cross-sectoral measures and/or effects that need further study. There is also a need for thorough cost analyses as well as analyses of what is required to implement these measures in practice. We have analysed potential fossil fuel reductions in the sectors industry, residential/service, transports and energy conversion. For these sectors, systematic investigations have been made on measures for replacing fossil fuels, improving energy efficiency and applying new technologies and industrial processes. Our scenario is to a great extent based on existing technologies. In addition to sector specific measures, we have applied cross-sectoral measures such as using industrial surplus heat in the residential sector or forest residues for producing heat and power. Furthermore, we have assumed a system change in

  8. TURVA-2012: Formulation of radionuclide release scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marcos, Nuria; Hjerpe, Thomas; Snellman, Margit; Ikonen, Ari; Smith, Paul

    2014-01-01

    TURVA-2012 is Posiva's safety case in support of the Preliminary Safety Analysis Report (PSAR) and application for a construction licence for a repository for disposal of spent nuclear fuel at the Olkiluoto site in south-western Finland. This paper gives a summary of the scenarios and the methodology followed in formulating them as described in TURVA-2012: Formulation of Radionuclide Release Scenarios (Posiva, 2013). The scenarios are further analysed in TURVA-2012: Assessment of Radionuclide Release Scenarios for the Repository System and TURVA-2012: Biosphere Assessment (Posiva, 2012a, 2012b). The formulation of scenarios takes into account the safety functions of the main barriers of the repository system and the uncertainties in the features, events, and processes (FEP) that may affect the entire disposal system (i.e. repository system plus the surface environment) from the emplacement of the first canister until the far future. In the report TURVA-2012: Performance Assessment (2012d), the performance of the engineered and natural barriers has been assessed against the loads expected during the evolution of the repository system and the site. Uncertainties have been identified and these are taken into account in the formulation of radionuclide release scenarios. The uncertainties in the FEP and evolution of the surface environment are taken into account in formulating the surface environment scenarios used ultimately in estimating radiation exposure. Formulating radionuclide release scenarios for the repository system links the reports Performance Assessment and Assessment of Radionuclide Release Scenarios for the Repository System. The formulation of radionuclide release scenarios for the surface environment brings together biosphere description and the surface environment FEP and is the link to the assessment of the surface environment scenarios summarised in TURVA-2012: Biosphere Assessment. (authors)

  9. Self-assembly scenarios of patchy colloidal particles in two dimensions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doppelbauer, Guenther; Bianchi, Emanuela; Kahl, Gerhard

    2010-01-01

    We have investigated the self-assembly scenario of patchy colloidal particles in a two-dimensional system. The energetically most favourable ordered particle arrangements have been identified via an optimization tool that is based on genetic algorithms. Assuming different simple models for patchy colloidal particles, which include binary mixtures as well as attraction and repulsion between the patches, we could identify a broad variety of highly non-trivial ordered structures. The strategies of the systems to self-assemble become evident from a systematic variation of the pressure: (i) saturation of patch bonds at low pressure and close packing at high pressure and (ii) for intermediate pressure values, the strategy is governed by a trade-off between these two energetic aspects. The present study is yet another demonstration of the efficiency and the high reliability of genetic algorithms as versatile optimization tools.

  10. Automated Analysis of Infinite Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buchholtz, Mikael

    2005-01-01

    The security of a network protocol crucially relies on the scenario in which the protocol is deployed. This paper describes syntactic constructs for modelling network scenarios and presents an automated analysis tool, which can guarantee that security properties hold in all of the (infinitely many...

  11. Accident scenario diagnostics with neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo, Z.

    1992-01-01

    Nuclear power plants are very complex systems. The diagnoses of transients or accident conditions is very difficult because a large amount of information, which is often noisy, or intermittent, or even incomplete, need to be processed in real time. To demonstrate their potential application to nuclear power plants, neural networks axe used to monitor the accident scenarios simulated by the training simulator of TVA's Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant. A self-organization network is used to compress original data to reduce the total number of training patterns. Different accident scenarios are closely related to different key parameters which distinguish one accident scenario from another. Therefore, the accident scenarios can be monitored by a set of small size neural networks, called modular networks, each one of which monitors only one assigned accident scenario, to obtain fast training and recall. Sensitivity analysis is applied to select proper input variables for modular networks

  12. Scenarios for Ecosystem Services: An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen R. Carpenter

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA scenarios address changes in ecosystem services and their implications for human well-being. Ecological changes pose special challenges for long-term thinking, because of the possibility of regime shifts that occur rapidly yet alter the availability of ecosystem services for generations. Moreover, ecological feedbacks can intensify human modification of ecosystems, creating a spiral of poverty and ecosystem degradation. Such complex dynamics were evaluated by a mixture of qualitative and quantitative analyses in the MA scenarios. Collectively, the scenarios explore problems such as the connections of poverty reduction and ecosystem services, and trade-offs among ecosystem services. Several promising approaches are considered by the scenarios, including uses of biodiversity to build resilience of ecosystem services, actively adaptive management, and green technology. Although the scenarios do not prescribe an optimal path, they illuminate the consequences of different policies toward ecosystem services.

  13. Blind estimation of the number of speech source in reverberant multisource scenarios based on binaural signals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    May, Tobias; van de Par, Steven

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we present a new approach for estimating the number of active speech sources in the presence of interfering noise sources and reverberation. First, a binaural front-end is used to detect the spatial positions of all active sound sources, resulting in a binary mask for each candidate...... on a support vector machine (SVM) classifier. A systematic analysis shows that the proposed algorithm is able to blindly determine the number and the corresponding spatial positions of speech sources in multisource scenarios and generalizes well to unknown acoustic conditions...

  14. Development on quantitative safety analysis method of accident scenario. The automatic scenario generator development for event sequence construction of accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kojima, Shigeo; Onoue, Akira; Kawai, Katsunori

    1998-01-01

    This study intends to develop a more sophisticated tool that will advance the current event tree method used in all PSA, and to focus on non-catastrophic events, specifically a non-core melt sequence scenario not included in an ordinary PSA. In the non-catastrophic event PSA, it is necessary to consider various end states and failure combinations for the purpose of multiple scenario construction. Therefore it is anticipated that an analysis work should be reduced and automated method and tool is required. A scenario generator that can automatically handle scenario construction logic and generate the enormous size of sequences logically identified by state-of-the-art methodology was developed. To fulfill the scenario generation as a technical tool, a simulation model associated with AI technique and graphical interface, was introduced. The AI simulation model in this study was verified for the feasibility of its capability to evaluate actual systems. In this feasibility study, a spurious SI signal was selected to test the model's applicability. As a result, the basic capability of the scenario generator could be demonstrated and important scenarios were generated. The human interface with a system and its operation, as well as time dependent factors and their quantification in scenario modeling, was added utilizing human scenario generator concept. Then the feasibility of an improved scenario generator was tested for actual use. Automatic scenario generation with a certain level of credibility, was achieved by this study. (author)

  15. Useful global-change scenarios: current issues and challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parson, E A

    2008-01-01

    Scenarios are increasingly used to inform global-change debates, but their connection to decisions has been weak and indirect. This reflects the greater number and variety of potential users and scenario needs, relative to other decision domains where scenario use is more established. Global-change scenario needs include common elements, e.g., model-generated projections of emissions and climate change, needed by many users but in different ways and with different assumptions. For these common elements, the limited ability to engage diverse global-change users in scenario development requires extreme transparency in communicating underlying reasoning and assumptions, including probability judgments. Other scenario needs are specific to users, requiring a decentralized network of scenario and assessment organizations to disseminate and interpret common elements and add elements requiring local context or expertise. Such an approach will make global-change scenarios more useful for decisions, but not less controversial. Despite predictable attacks, scenario-based reasoning is necessary for responsible global-change decisions because decision-relevant uncertainties cannot be specified scientifically. The purpose of scenarios is not to avoid speculation, but to make the required speculation more disciplined, more anchored in relevant scientific knowledge when available, and more transparent.

  16. Input parameters and scenarios, including economic inputs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boklund, Anette; Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq

    2012-01-01

    scenarios, we excluded hobby-type farms1 In the vaccination scenarios, herds within the vaccination zone were simulated to be vaccinated 14 days after detection of the first herd or when 10, 20, 30 or 50 herds were infected. All herds within the zones were simulated to be vaccinated. We used vaccination...... zones of either a 1, 2, 3 or 5 km. In some scenarios, hobby herds were not vaccinated. In one scenario, no sheep were vaccinated, and in another scenario no swine were vaccinated. from depopulation in zones. The resources for depopulation were estimated to 4,800 swine and 2,000 ruminants a day...

  17. FEATURES OF FORMATION SCENARIOS OF THE FOOD INDUSTRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serhiy Nozhenko

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the topic – the invention of approaches to enterprise development oil and fat industry. The goal – to identify features of formation scenarios for the food industry. The chosen methodology allowed to analyze and evaluate the functioning of state enterprises. Results are discovering the benefits of scenario planning to find ways of business development. Novelty – a rationale for the use of scenario planning for enterprise development oil and fat industry, developing a set of scenarios. The practical significance – providing specific scenarios for enterprises of oil and fat industry. Keywords: scenario planning, scenario development, enterprise, oil and fat industry outlook. JEL: L 66

  18. FAST Plasma Scenarios and Equilibrium Configurations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calabro, G.; Crisanti, F.; Ramogida, G.; Cardinali, A.; Cucchiaro, A.; Maddaluno, G.; Pizzuto, A.; Pericoli Ridolfini, V.; Tuccillo, A.A.; Zonca, F.; Albanese, R.; Granucci, G.; Nowak, S.

    2008-01-01

    In this paper we present the Fusion Advanced Studies Torus (FAST) plasma scenarios and equilibrium configurations, designed to reproduce the ITER ones (with scaled plasma current) and suitable to fulfil plasma conditions for integrated studies of burning plasma physics, Plasma Wall interaction, ITER relevant operation problems and Steady State scenarios. The attention is focused on FAST flexibility in terms of both performance and physics that can be investigated: operations are foreseen at a wide range of parameters from high performance H-Mode (toroidal field, B T , up to 8.5 T; plasma current, I P , up to 8 MA) to advanced tokamak (AT) operation (I P =3 MA) as well as full non inductive current scenario (I P =2 MA). The coupled heating power is provided with 30MW delivered by an Ion Cyclotron Resonance Heating (ICRH) system (30-90MHz), 6 MW by a Lower Hybrid (LH) system (3.7 or 5 GHz) for the long pulse AT scenario, 4 MW by an Electron Cyclotron Resonant Heating (ECRH) system (170 GHz-B T =6T) for MHD and electron heating localized control and, eventually, with 10 MW by a Negative Ion Beam (NNBI), which the ports are designed to accommodate. In the reference H-mode scenario FAST preserves (with respect to ITER) fast ions induced as well as turbulence fluctuation spectra, thus, addressing the cross-scale couplings issue of micro- to meso-scale physics. The noninductive scenario at I P =2MA is obtained with 60-70 % of bootstrap and the remaining by LHCD. Predictive simulations of the H-mode scenarios described above have been performed by means of JETTO code, using a semi-empirical mixed Bohm/gyro-Bohm transport model. Plasma position and Shape Control studies are also presented for the reference scenario

  19. Significance of Bias Correction in Drought Frequency and Scenario Analysis Based on Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aryal, Y.; Zhu, J.

    2015-12-01

    Assessment of future drought characteristics is difficult as climate models usually have bias in simulating precipitation frequency and intensity. To overcome this limitation, output from climate models need to be bias corrected based on the specific purpose of applications. In this study, we examine the significance of bias correction in the context of drought frequency and scenario analysis using output from climate models. In particular, we investigate the performance of three widely used bias correction techniques: (1) monthly bias correction (MBC), (2) nested bias correction (NBC), and (3) equidistance quantile mapping (EQM) The effect of bias correction in future scenario of drought frequency is also analyzed. The characteristics of drought are investigated in terms of frequency and severity in nine representative locations in different climatic regions across the United States using regional climate model (RCM) output from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is used as the means to compare and forecast drought characteristics at different timescales. Systematic biases in the RCM precipitation output are corrected against the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data. The results demonstrate that bias correction significantly decreases the RCM errors in reproducing drought frequency derived from the NARR data. Preserving mean and standard deviation is essential for climate models in drought frequency analysis. RCM biases both have regional and timescale dependence. Different timescale of input precipitation in the bias corrections show similar results. Drought frequency obtained from the RCM future (2040-2070) scenarios is compared with that from the historical simulations. The changes in drought characteristics occur in all climatic regions. The relative changes in drought frequency in future scenario in relation to

  20. Orbital misalignment of the Neptune-mass exoplanet GJ 436b with the spin of its cool star

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourrier, Vincent; Lovis, Christophe; Beust, Hervé; Ehrenreich, David; Henry, Gregory W.; Astudillo-Defru, Nicola; Allart, Romain; Bonfils, Xavier; Ségransan, Damien; Delfosse, Xavier; Cegla, Heather M.; Wyttenbach, Aurélien; Heng, Kevin; Lavie, Baptiste; Pepe, Francesco

    2018-01-01

    The angle between the spin of a star and the orbital planes of its planets traces the history of the planetary system. Exoplanets orbiting close to cool stars are expected to be on circular, aligned orbits because of strong tidal interactions with the stellar convective envelope. Spin–orbit alignment can be measured when the planet transits its star, but such ground-based spectroscopic measurements are challenging for cool, slowly rotating stars. Here we report the three-dimensional characterization of the trajectory of an exoplanet around an M dwarf star, derived by mapping the spectrum of the stellar photosphere along the chord transited by the planet. We find that the eccentric orbit of the Neptune-mass exoplanet GJ 436b is nearly perpendicular to the stellar equator. Both eccentricity and misalignment, surprising around a cool star, can result from dynamical interactions (via Kozai migration) with a yet-undetected outer companion. This inward migration of GJ 436b could have triggered the atmospheric escape that now sustains its giant exosphere.

  1. Transportation energy scenario analysis technical report No. 1: examination of four existing scenarios. [Projections for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernard, M. J.; LaBelle, S. J.; Millar, M.; Walbridge, E. W.

    1978-03-01

    This project aims to provide the DOE Division of Transportation Energy Conservation (TEC) with a long-range forecasting framework in which to evaluate potential changes to the U.S. Transportation system. This initial report examines four existing, but diverse, 50-year scenarios of the future. It describes the scenarios and summarizes the changes in the major transportation system variables that would occur through the year 2025 in each scenario. Projections of variables of interest to TEC are explored, including passenger or ton miles and energy consumption. Each is reported for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025 under four scenarios: success, moderate economic growth, energy crisis, and transformation. The philosophy of this project is that the transportation system must support future lifestyles; by examining potential future lifestyles the required transportation system changes can be deduced. The project: (a) develops a set of scenarios that span likely futures; (b) describes the lifestyles in each scenario in order; (c) determines the characteristics of the transportation system supporting those lifestyles; (d) indicates transportation technologies and policies necessary in that system; and (e) derives the energy characteristics of that system. The implications of the four existing scenarios are examined with emphasis on current TEC electric-vehicle development. This preliminary investigation will be followed by detailed-scenario building (modifying existing scenarios or developing new ones) and generation of lifestyles and transportation system demands under each of the scenarios. This work will be reported in October 1978.

  2. MIV Project: Mission scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravazzotti, Mariolina T.; Jørgensen, John Leif; Thuesen, Gøsta

    1997-01-01

    Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions.......Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions....

  3. An Experiment on Graph Analysis Methodologies for Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brothers, Alan J.; Whitney, Paul D.; Wolf, Katherine E.; Kuchar, Olga A.; Chin, George

    2005-09-30

    Visual graph representations are increasingly used to represent, display, and explore scenarios and the structure of organizations. The graph representations of scenarios are readily understood, and commercial software is available to create and manage these representations. The purpose of the research presented in this paper is to explore whether these graph representations support quantitative assessments of the underlying scenarios. The underlying structure of the scenarios is the information that is being targeted in the experiment and the extent to which the scenarios are similar in content. An experiment was designed that incorporated both the contents of the scenarios and analysts’ graph representations of the scenarios. The scenarios’ content was represented graphically by analysts, and both the structure and the semantics of the graph representation were attempted to be used to understand the content. The structure information was not found to be discriminating for the content of the scenarios in this experiment; but, the semantic information was discriminating.

  4. Action research Toolkit II: The Scenario Workshop

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2003-01-01

    The article describes the scenario workshop within the action research paradigm. In addtion, the maina phases and the functions of the facilitator and the participants are outlined. Finally,it describes and analyses the experiences of using the scenario workshop in practice.......The article describes the scenario workshop within the action research paradigm. In addtion, the maina phases and the functions of the facilitator and the participants are outlined. Finally,it describes and analyses the experiences of using the scenario workshop in practice....

  5. MUON DETECTORS: ALIGNMENT

    CERN Multimedia

    S. Szillasi

    2013-01-01

    The CMS detector has been gradually opened and whenever a wheel became exposed the first operation was the removal of the MABs, the sensor structures of the Hardware Barrel Alignment System. By the last days of June all 36 MABs have arrived at the Alignment Lab at the ISR where, as part of the Alignment Upgrade Project, they are refurbished with new Survey target holders. Their electronic checkout is on the way and finally they will be recalibrated. During LS1 the alignment system will be upgraded in order to allow more precise reconstruction of the MB4 chambers in Sector 10 and Sector 4. This requires new sensor components, so called MiniMABs (pictured below), that have already been assembled and calibrated. Image 6: Calibrated MiniMABs are ready for installation For the track-based alignment, the systematic uncertainties of the algorithm are under scrutiny: this study will enable the production of an improved Monte Carlo misalignment scenario and to update alignment position errors eventually, crucial...

  6. A systematic mapping study of process mining

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maita, Ana Rocío Cárdenas; Martins, Lucas Corrêa; López Paz, Carlos Ramón; Rafferty, Laura; Hung, Patrick C. K.; Peres, Sarajane Marques; Fantinato, Marcelo

    2018-05-01

    This study systematically assesses the process mining scenario from 2005 to 2014. The analysis of 705 papers evidenced 'discovery' (71%) as the main type of process mining addressed and 'categorical prediction' (25%) as the main mining task solved. The most applied traditional technique is the 'graph structure-based' ones (38%). Specifically concerning computational intelligence and machine learning techniques, we concluded that little relevance has been given to them. The most applied are 'evolutionary computation' (9%) and 'decision tree' (6%), respectively. Process mining challenges, such as balancing among robustness, simplicity, accuracy and generalization, could benefit from a larger use of such techniques.

  7. Water use implications of biofuel scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teter, J.; Mishra, G. S.; Yeh, S.

    2012-12-01

    Existing studies rely upon attributional lifecycle analysis (LCA) approaches to estimate water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/evapotranspiration water consumed for biofuel production. Such approaches can be misleading. From a policy perspective, a better approach is to compare differential water impacts among scenarios on a landscape scale. We address the shortcomings of existing studies by using consequential LCA, and incorporate direct and indirect land use (changes) of biofuel scenarios, marginal vs. average biofuel water use estimates, future climate, and geographic heterogeneity. We use the outputs of a partial equilibrium economic model, climate and soil data, and a process-based crop-soil-climate-water model to estimate differences in green water (GW - directly from precipitation to soil) and blue water (BW - supplied by irrigation) use among three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU), (2) Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. We use spatial statistical methods to interpolate key climatic variables using daily climate observations for the contiguous USA. Finally, we use FAO's crop model AquaCrop to estimate the domestic GW and BW impacts of biofuel policies from 2007-2035. We assess the differences among scenarios along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion at the county level, including prime and marginal lands, (2) crop-specific and overall annual/seasonal water balances including (a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (d) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm 3 /acre over the relevant time period. The functional unit of analysis is the BW and GW requirements of biofuels (mm3 per Btu biofuel) at the county level. Differential water use impacts among scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes

  8. CIEMAT analyses of transition fuel cycle scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Gonzalez-Romero, E.M.

    2010-01-01

    The efficient design of strategies for the long-term sustainability of nuclear energy or the phase-out of this technology is possible after the study of transition scenarios from the current fuel cycle to a future one with advanced technologies and concepts. CIEMAT has participated in numerous fuel cycle scenarios studies for more than a decade and, from some years ago, special attention has been put in the study of transition scenarios. In this paper, the main characteristics of each studied transition scenario are described. The main results and partial conclusions of each scenario are also analyzed. As general conclusions of transition studies, we highlight that the advantages of advanced technologies in transition scenarios can be obtained by countries or regions with sufficiently large nuclear parks, with a long-term implementation of the strategy. For small countries, these advantages are also accessible with an affordable cost, by means of the regional collaboration during several decades. (authors)

  9. Scenarios of future energy intensities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    In this chapter, the authors present scenarios of potential change in energy intensities in the OECD countries and in the Soviet Union. These scenarios are meant to illustrate how intensities might evolve over the next 20 years given different conditions with respect to energy prices, energy-efficiency policies, and other key factors. Changes in intensity will also be affected by the rates of growth and stock turnover in each sector. They have not tried to forecast how activity levels and structure will evolve. However, the OECD scenarios assume a world in which GDP averages growth in the 2-3%/year range, with some differences among countries. For the Soviet Union, the degree and pace of intensity decline will be highly dependent on the success of the transition to a market economy; each scenario explicitly envisions a different degree of success. They have not constructed comparable scenarios for the developing countries. The scenarios presented in this chapter do not predict what will happen in the future. They believe, however, that they illustrate a plausible set of outcomes if energy prices, policies, programs, and other factors evolve as described in each case. With higher energy prices and vigorous policies and programs, intensities in the OECD countries in 2010 could be nearly 50% less on average than the level where trends seem to be point. In the former Soviet Union, a combination of rapid, successful economic reform and extra effort to improve energy efficiency might result in average intensity being nearly 40% less than in a slow reform case. And in the LDCs, a mixture of sound policies, programs, and energy pricing reform could also lead to intensities being far lower than they would be otherwise. 8 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab

  10. Energy scenarios for the 21. century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lauerman, V.

    2002-01-01

    The Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) has adopted a scenario approach in developing its energy outlook to 2025. These scenarios can be used in developing strategies to optimize opportunities and avoid the dangers that often accompany the more deterministic approach to forecasting. The scenarios are not predictions, but are instead feasible outcomes for the future. They encompass 5 major areas of uncertainty for the world energy market through 2025 that impact energy demand and fuel mix. These include the economy, technology, energy policy, resource availability, and market structure. The drivers for the energy scenarios are the environment, demography, economics, culture geopolitics and technology. The paper referred to the world energy market, the OECD energy markets, the non-OECD energy markets and the FSU energy markets under 3 energy scenarios including: (1) the material world in which the new economy drives the global economy, (2) a very dark Orwellian world in which there is a rise in terrorism and a breakdown in international cooperation, and (3) a utopia in which the major powers become increasingly serious about achieving sustainable development. 22 refs., 48 figs

  11. Masking of Enamel Fluorosis Discolorations and Tooth Misalignment With a Combination of At-Home Whitening, Resin Infiltration, and Direct Composite Restorations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perdigão, J; Lam, V Q; Burseth, B G; Real, C

    This clinical report illustrates a conservative technique to mask enamel discolorations in maxillary anterior teeth caused by hypomineralization associated with enamel fluorosis and subsequent direct resin composite to improve the anterior esthetics. The treatment consisted of at-home whitening with 10% carbamide peroxide gel with potassium nitrate and sodium fluoride in a custom-fitted tray to mask the brown-stained areas, followed by resin infiltration to mask the white spot areas. An existing resin composite restoration in the maxillary right central incisor was subsequently replaced after completion of the whitening and resin infiltration procedures, whereas the two misaligned and rotated maxillary lateral incisors were built up with direct resin composite restorations to provide the illusion of adequate arch alignment, as the patient was unable to use orthodontic therapy.

  12. Future nuclear energy scenarios for Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roelofs, F.; Van Heek, A.

    2010-01-01

    Nuclear energy is back on the agenda worldwide. In order to prepare for the next decades and to set priorities in nuclear R and D and investment, market share scenarios are evaluated. This allows to identify the triggers which influence the market penetration of future nuclear reactor technologies. To this purpose, scenarios for a future nuclear reactor park in Europe have been analysed applying an integrated dynamic process modelling technique. Various market share scenarios for nuclear energy are derived including sub-variants with regard to the intra-nuclear options taken, e.g. introduction date of Gen-III (i.e. EPR) and Gen-IV (i.e. SCWR, HTR, FR) reactors, level of reprocessing, and so forth. The assessment was undertaken using the DANESS code which allows to provide a complete picture of mass-flow and economics of the various nuclear energy system scenarios. The analyses show that the future European nuclear park will exist of combinations of Gen-III and Gen-IV reactors. This mix will always consist of a set of reactor types each having its specific strengths. Furthermore, the analyses highlight the triggers influencing the choice between different nuclear energy deployment scenarios. In addition, a dynamic assessment is made with regard to manpower requirements for the construction of a future nuclear fleet in the different scenarios. (authors)

  13. Soil retention of hexavalent chromium released from construction and demolition waste in a road-base-application scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Butera, Stefania; Trapp, Stefan; Astrup, Thomas Fruergaard

    2015-01-01

    We investigated the retention of Cr(VI) in three subsoils with low organic matter content in laboratory experiments at concentration levels relevant to represent leachates from construction and demolition waste (C&DW) reused as unbound material in road construction. The retention mechanism appeared...... depth. However, in rigid climates and with high water infiltration through the road pavement, the reduction reaction could be so slow that Cr(VI) might migrate as deep as 200 cm under the road. The reaction parameters and the model can form the basis for systematically assessing under which scenarios Cr...

  14. Syria and Iran: what next? Three potential scenarios; Syrie, Iran: et maintenant? Trois scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tertrais, Bruno [Fondation pour la recherche strategique, 4 bis rue des Patures 75016 Paris (France)

    2013-10-15

    Now that the United Nations resolution has been voted, the most complicated task begins: ensuring that Syria entirely and definitively gets rid of its chemical arsenal, which unfortunately has every chance of enduring. In this respect three scenarios are possible, each of which would have different repercussions for the region, notably regarding the Iranian nuclear issue, which is now being considered in a new light following Hassan Rohani's charm offensive. Yet, these consequences could also have a profound and lasting effect on the relationship between the United States and its allies. In the first scenario the agreement with Syria will be applied in a satisfactory manner, and could serve as a positive example to Iran, which might be more inclined to signing a nuclear deal. To date, Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Guide, has been wary of the ongoing negotiations, considering that it is impossible to trust the Western States whose sole objective is the downfall of the Iranian regime. Russia, buoyed by its new role in the region, would contribute in a more constructive manner to the resolution of the Iranian nuclear issue... Care must be taken, however, as Iran could just as well conclude as a result of the events of the summer of 2013, particularly from U.S. procrastination, that Western States are not willing to use force in the Middle East, and thus on the contrary draw out the negotiations without fearing the possibility of a U.S. strike. According to the second scenario, Syria will not implement the agreement, the crisis will be renewed, and will end with a Western strike, most probably without a U.N. mandate. This scenario would boost the confidence of U.S. allies in the region, who have a tendency to doubt the United States' determination to defend them. This could be seen as a warning to Iran, but the lessons that Iran would take from this scenario would undoubtedly depend on the balance of power in Tehran at the time: the moderates would push for a deal to avoid

  15. Comparison of future energy scenarios for Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kwon, Pil Seok; Østergaard, Poul Alberg

    2012-01-01

    Scenario-making is becoming an important tool in energy policy making and energy systems analyses. This article probes into the making of scenarios for Denmark by presenting a comparison of three future scenarios which narrate 100% renewable energy system for Denmark in 2050; IDA 2050, Climate...... Commission 2050, and CEESA (Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis). Generally, although with minor differences, the scenarios suggest the same technological solutions for the future such as expansion of biomass usage and wind power capacity, integration of transport sector into the other energy...

  16. USING UML SCENARIOS IN B2B SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Jakimi

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Scenarios has become a popular technique for requirements elicitation and specification building. Since scenarios capture only partial descriptions of the system behavior, an approach for scenario composition and/or integration is needed to produce more complete specifications. The Unified Modeling Language (UML, which has become a standard notation for object-oriented modeling, provides a suitable framework for scenario acquisition using Use Case diagrams and Sequence or Collaboration diagrams. In this paper, we suggest an algorithmic and tool support for composing and integrating scenarios that are represented in form of sequence diagrams. We suggest four operators (;: sequential operator, ||: concurrent operator, ?: conditional operator and  * :iteration operator to compose a set of scenarios that describe a use case of a given system. In this paper, we suggest also to apply the scenario approach to B2B systems (Business to Business. We propose to develop B2B systems as a three activities process deriving formal specifications and code skeletons from UML scenarios. Activities of this proposed process are generally automatic and are supported by a set of developed algorithms and tools.

  17. Scenario Archetypes: Converging Rather than Diverging Themes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon P. Sadler

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Future scenarios provide challenging, plausible and relevant stories about how the future could unfold. Urban Futures (UF research has identified a substantial set (>450 of seemingly disparate scenarios published over the period 1997–2011 and within this research, a sub-set of >160 scenarios has been identified (and categorized based on their narratives according to the structure first proposed by the Global Scenario Group (GSG in 1997; three world types (Business as Usual, Barbarization, and Great Transitions and six scenarios, two for each world type (Policy Reform—PR, Market Forces—MF, Breakdown—B, Fortress World—FW, Eco-Communalism—EC and New Sustainability Paradigm—NSP. It is suggested that four of these scenario archetypes (MF, PR, NSP and FW are sufficiently distinct to facilitate active stakeholder engagement in futures thinking. Moreover they are accompanied by a well-established, internally consistent set of narratives that provide a deeper understanding of the key fundamental drivers (e.g., STEEP—Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political that could bring about realistic world changes through a push or a pull effect. This is testament to the original concept of the GSG scenarios and their development and refinement over a 16 year period.

  18. Free-boundary simulations of ITER advanced scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Besseghir, K.

    2013-06-01

    The successful operation of ITER advanced scenarios is likely to be a major step forward in the development of controlled fusion as a power production source. ITER advanced scenarios raise specific challenges that are not encountered in presently-operated tokamaks. In this thesis, it is argued that ITER advanced operation may benefit from optimal control techniques. Optimal control ensures high performance operation while guaranteeing tokamak integrity. The application of optimal control techniques for ITER operation is assessed and it is concluded that robust optimisation is appropriate for ITER operation of advanced scenarios. Real-time optimisation schemes are discussed and it is concluded that the necessary conditions of optimality tracking approach may potentially be appropriate for ITER operation, thus offering a viable closed-loop optimal control approach. Simulations of ITER advanced operation are necessary in order to assess the present ITER design and uncover the main difficulties that may be encountered during advanced operation. The DINA-CH and CRONOS full tokamak simulator is used to simulate the operation of the ITER hybrid and steady-state scenarios. It is concluded that the present ITER design is appropriate for performing a hybrid scenario pulse lasting more than 1000 sec, with a flat-top plasma current of 12 MA, and a fusion gain of Q ≅ 8. Similarly, a steady-state scenario without internal transport barrier, with a flat-top plasma current of 10 MA, and with a fusion gain of Q ≅ 5 can be realised using the present ITER design. The sensitivity of the advanced scenarios with respect to transport models and physical assumption is assessed using CRONOS. It is concluded that the hybrid scenario and the steady-state scenario are highly sensitive to the L-H transition timing, to the value of the confinement enhancement factor, to the heating and current drive scenario during ramp-up, and, to a lesser extent, to the density peaking and pedestal

  19. Free-boundary simulations of ITER advanced scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Besseghir, K.

    2013-06-15

    The successful operation of ITER advanced scenarios is likely to be a major step forward in the development of controlled fusion as a power production source. ITER advanced scenarios raise specific challenges that are not encountered in presently-operated tokamaks. In this thesis, it is argued that ITER advanced operation may benefit from optimal control techniques. Optimal control ensures high performance operation while guaranteeing tokamak integrity. The application of optimal control techniques for ITER operation is assessed and it is concluded that robust optimisation is appropriate for ITER operation of advanced scenarios. Real-time optimisation schemes are discussed and it is concluded that the necessary conditions of optimality tracking approach may potentially be appropriate for ITER operation, thus offering a viable closed-loop optimal control approach. Simulations of ITER advanced operation are necessary in order to assess the present ITER design and uncover the main difficulties that may be encountered during advanced operation. The DINA-CH and CRONOS full tokamak simulator is used to simulate the operation of the ITER hybrid and steady-state scenarios. It is concluded that the present ITER design is appropriate for performing a hybrid scenario pulse lasting more than 1000 sec, with a flat-top plasma current of 12 MA, and a fusion gain of Q ≅ 8. Similarly, a steady-state scenario without internal transport barrier, with a flat-top plasma current of 10 MA, and with a fusion gain of Q ≅ 5 can be realised using the present ITER design. The sensitivity of the advanced scenarios with respect to transport models and physical assumption is assessed using CRONOS. It is concluded that the hybrid scenario and the steady-state scenario are highly sensitive to the L-H transition timing, to the value of the confinement enhancement factor, to the heating and current drive scenario during ramp-up, and, to a lesser extent, to the density peaking and pedestal

  20. Vulnerabilities to agricultural production shocks: An extreme, plausible scenario for assessment of risk for the insurance sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tobias Lunt

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate risks pose a threat to the function of the global food system and therefore also a hazard to the global financial sector, the stability of governments, and the food security and health of the world’s population. This paper presents a method to assess plausible impacts of an agricultural production shock and potential materiality for global insurers. A hypothetical, near-term, plausible, extreme scenario was developed based upon modules of historical agricultural production shocks, linked under a warm phase El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO meteorological framework. The scenario included teleconnected floods and droughts in disparate agricultural production regions around the world, as well as plausible, extreme biotic shocks. In this scenario, global crop yield declines of 10% for maize, 11% for soy, 7% for wheat and 7% for rice result in quadrupled commodity prices and commodity stock fluctuations, civil unrest, significant negative humanitarian consequences and major financial losses worldwide. This work illustrates a need for the scientific community to partner across sectors and industries towards better-integrated global data, modeling and analytical capacities, to better respond to and prepare for concurrent agricultural failure. Governments, humanitarian organizations and the private sector collectively may recognize significant benefits from more systematic assessment of exposure to agricultural climate risk.

  1. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H.K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.; Ostbo, Bruce I.; Oates, Don

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

  2. Current scenario

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Current scenario. India , like other parts of the world, is also facing the problem of increase in the incidence of drug resistance in tuberculosis. Multi-drug resistance (MDR, resistance to RIF & INH) and extensively drug resistant strains (X-DR, resistance to RIF, INH, FQs ...

  3. Maximising the Effectiveness of a Scenario Planning Process: Tips for Scenario Planners in Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayers, Nicola

    2011-01-01

    Scenario planning is a tool which can help organisations and people to think about, and plan for, the long-term future. In basic terms, it involves creating a number of in-depth scenarios (stories), each of which tells of a different possible future for an organisation or issue, and considering how each different future might influence…

  4. Toward Managing & Automating CyberCIEGE Scenario Definition File Creation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Johns, Kenneth

    2004-01-01

    .... These scenarios are written CyberCIEGE Scenarios Definition Language. Unfortunately, the trade-off for flexibility, extendibility and fully customizable Scenarios is syntax complexity in the Scenarios definition language...

  5. Adaptive memory: the survival scenario enhances item-specific processing relative to a moving scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Griffith, Samantha E; Burns, Amy D

    2013-01-01

    Nairne, Thompson, and Pandeirada (2007) found that retention of words rated for their relevance to survival is superior to that of words encoded under numerous other deep processing conditions. They suggested that our memory systems might have evolved to confer an advantage for survival-relevant information. Burns, Burns, and Hwang (2011) suggested a two-process explanation of the proximate mechanisms responsible for the survival advantage. Whereas most control tasks encourage only one type of processing, the survival task encourages both item-specific and relational processing. They found that when control tasks encouraged both types of processing, the survival processing advantage was eliminated. However, none of their control conditions included non-survival scenarios (e.g., moving, vacation, etc.), so it is not clear how this two-process explanation would explain the survival advantage when scenarios are used as control conditions. The present experiments replicated the finding that the survival scenario improves recall relative to a moving scenario in both a between-lists and within-list design and also provided evidence that this difference was accompanied by an item-specific processing difference, not a difference in relational processing. The implications of these results for several existing accounts of the survival processing effect are discussed.

  6. Estimates of future climate based on SRES emission scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Godal, Odd; Sygna, Linda; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Berntsen, Terje

    2000-02-14

    The preliminary emission scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), will eventually replace the old IS92 scenarios. By running these scenarios in a simple climate model (SCM) we estimate future temperature increase between 1.7 {sup o}C and 2.8 {sup o}C from 1990 to to 2100. The global sea level rise over the same period is between 0.33 m and 0.45 m. Compared to the previous IPCC scenarios (IS92) the SRES scenarios generally results in changes in both development over time and level of emissions, concentrations, radiative forcing, and finally temperature change and sea level rise. The most striking difference between the IS92 scenarios and the SRES scenarios is the lower level of SO{sub 2} emissions. The range in CO{sub 2} emissions is also expected to be narrower in the new scenarios. The SRES scenarios result in a narrower range both for temperature change and sea level rise from 1990 to 2100 compared to the range estimated for the IS92 scenarios. (author)

  7. Conventional armed forces in Europe: Technology scenario development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Houser, G.M.

    1990-07-01

    In January 1986, the Soviet Union's Mikhail Gorbachev proposed elimination of all nuclear weapons by the year 2000. In April of that year, Mr. Gorbachev proposed substantial reductions of conventional weapons in Europe, from the Atlantic Ocean to the Ural Mountains, including reductions in operational-tactical nuclear weapons. In May 1986, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) responded with the Brussels Declaration on Conventional Arms Control,'' which indicated readiness to open East/West discussions on establishing a mandate for negotiating conventional arms control throughout Europe. The Group of 23,'' which met in Vienna beginning in February 1987, concluded the meeting in January 1989 with a mandate for the Conventional Armed Forced in Europe (CFE) negotiations. On 6 March 1989, CFE talks began, and these talks have continued through six rounds (as of April 1990). Although US President George Bush, on 30 May 1989, called for agreement within six months to a year, and the Malta meeting of December 1989 called for completion of a CFE agreement by the end of 1990, much remains to be negotiated. This report provides three types of information. First, treaty provisions brought to the table by both sides are compared. Second, on the basis of these provisions, problem areas for each of the provision elements are postulated and possible scenarios for resolving these problem areas are developed. Third, the scenarios are used as requirements for tasks assigned program elements for possible US implementation of a CFE treaty. As progress is achieved during the negotiations, this report could be updated, as necessary, in each of the areas to provide a continuing systematic basis for program implementation and technology development. 8 refs.

  8. Long-term scenarios for global energy demand and supply. Four global greenhouse mitigation scenarios. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soerensen, B.; Meibom, P.; Kuemmel, B.

    1999-01-01

    The scenario method is used to investigate energy demand and supply systems for the 21st century. A geographical information system (GIS) is employed to assess the spatial match between supply and demand, and the robustness of the scenario against changes in assumptions is discussed, for scenarios using fossil fuels without carbon dioxide emissions, nuclear fuels with reduced accident and proliferation risks, and renewable energy from local and from more centralised installations: The year 2050 demand scenario is based on a very high goal satisfaction in all regions of the world, for the middle UN population projection. All energy efficiency measures that are technically ready and economic today are assumed in effect by year 2050. An increased fraction of total activities are assumed to occur in non-material sectors. Technical, economic and implementation issues are discussed, including the resilience to changes in particularly demand assumptions and the type of framework that would allow energy policy to employ any of (or a mix of) the scenario options. Results are presented as average energy flows per unit of land area. This geographically based presentation method gives additional insights, particularly for the dispersed renewable energy systems, but in all cases it allows to identify the need for energy transmission and trade between regions, and to display it in a visually suggestive fashion. The scenarios are examples of greenhouse mitigation scenarios, all characterised by near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. All are more expensive than the present system, but only if the cost of the negative impacts from the current system is neglected. As options for global energy policy during the next decades, the clean fossil and the renewable energy options (possibly in combination) are the only realistic ones, because the safe nuclear option requires research and development that most likely will take longer time, if it can at all be carried

  9. Long-term scenarios for global energy demand and supply. Four global greenhouse mitigation scenarios. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soerensen, B; Meibom, P [Technical Univ. of Denmark, Lyngby (Denmark); Kuemmel, B [Royal Agricultural and Veterinary Univ., Tastrup (Denmark)

    1999-01-01

    The scenario method is used to investigate energy demand and supply systems for the 21st century. A geographical information system (GIS) is employed to assess the spatial match between supply and demand, and the robustness of the scenario against changes in assumptions is discussed, for scenarios using fossil fuels without carbon dioxide emissions, nuclear fuels with reduced accident and proliferation risks, and renewable energy from local and from more centralised installations: The year 2050 demand scenario is based on a very high goal satisfaction in all regions of the world, for the middle UN population projection. All energy efficiency measures that are technically ready and economic today are assumed in effect by year 2050. An increased fraction of total activities are assumed to occur in non-material sectors. Technical, economic and implementation issues are discussed, including the resilience to changes in particularly demand assumptions and the type of framework that would allow energy policy to employ any of (or a mix of) the scenario options. Results are presented as average energy flows per unit of land area. This geographically based presentation method gives additional insights, particularly for the dispersed renewable energy systems, but in all cases it allows to identify the need for energy transmission and trade between regions, and to display it in a visually suggestive fashion. The scenarios are examples of greenhouse mitigation scenarios, all characterised by near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. All are more expensive than the present system, but only if the cost of the negative impacts from the current system is neglected. As options for global energy policy during the next decades, the clean fossil and the renewable energy options (possibly in combination) are the only realistic ones, because the safe nuclear option requires research and development that most likely will take longer time, if it can at all be carried

  10. Energy scenarios for Colombia: process and content

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Ricardo A. [National Univ. of Colombia, Escuela de Geosciencias y Medio Ambiente, Medellin (Colombia); Vesga, Daniel R.A. [Unidad de Planeacion Minero Energetica, Bogota (Colombia); Cadena, Angela I. [Los Andes Univ., School of Engineering, Bogota (Colombia); Boman, Ulf [Kairos Future AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Larsen, Erik [Cass Business School, London (United Kingdom); Dyner, Isaac [Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Energy Inst., Medellin (Colombia)

    2005-02-01

    This paper presents the approach undertaken, and the four energy scenarios that have been developed, to support long term energy policy in Colombia. The scenarios were constructed with emphasis on maximum interaction between stakeholders in the Colombian energy sector. The process directly involved over 120 people. The scenarios were developed as strategic support tools for the Energy and Mining Planning Unit (UPME), which is the Colombian institution in charge of developing the country's energy strategies and National Energy Policy. The methodology employed is presented, followed by a detailed description of each of the four scenarios. (Author)

  11. Shell energy scenarios to 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    Shell developed two scenarios that describe alternative ways the energy future may develop. In the first scenario (Scramble) policymakers pay little attention to more efficient energy use until supplies are tight. Likewise, greenhouse gas emissions are not seriously addressed until there are major climate shocks. In the second scenario (Blueprints) growing local actions begin to address the challenges of economic development, energy security and environmental pollution. A price is applied to a critical mass of emissions giving a huge stimulus to the development of clean energy technologies, such as carbon dioxide capture and storage, and energy efficiency measures. The result is far lower carbon dioxide emissions. Both these scenarios can help Shell to test their strategy against a range of possible developments over the long-term. However, according to Shell, the Blueprints' outcomes offer the best hope for a sustainable future, whether or not they arise exactly in the way described. However, with the right combination of policy, technology and commitment from governments, industry and society globally, Shell believes it can be realized. But achieving the targets will not be easy, and time is short. Clear thinking, huge investment, and effective leadership are required

  12. Baseline scenarios of global environmental change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alcamo, J.; Kreileman, G.J.J.; Bollen, J.C.; Born, G.J. van den; Krol, M.S.; Toet, A.M.C.; Vries, H.J.M. de; Gerlagh, R.

    1996-01-01

    This paper presents three baseline scenarios of no policy action computed by the IMAGE2 model. These scenarios cover a wide range of coupled global change indicators, including: energy demand and consumption; food demand, consumption, and production; changes in land cover including changes in extent of agricultural land and forest; emissions of greenhouse gases and ozone precursors; and climate change and its impacts on sea level rise, crop productivity and natural vegetation. Scenario information is available for the entire world with regional and grid scale detail, and covers from 1970 to 2100. (author)

  13. Scenario research: The food industry in 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette; Jensen, Birger Boutrup

    2001-01-01

    What kind of foods will the consumers choose to buy in 2010? Will they be buying organic foods, functional foods or go for the cheapest products? Nobody can predict the future. However, by using scenario techniques qualified indications on future developments can be put together. Researchers...... at MAPP and the Department of Manufacturing Engineering and Management, The Technical University of Denmark have constructed three scenarios about the Danish food industry in 2010. The aim has been to identify the demands the food industry can expect to meet in the future plus which research areas...... the public research should prioritise in order to support the development of competences within the food industry. The scenarios are isolated developments. In practise, the future is likely to be a combination of the different tendencies within the scenarios. The first scenario 'Naturalness' has focus...

  14. Handling time misalignment and rank deficiency in liquid chromatography by multivariate curve resolution: Quantitation of five biogenic amines in fish.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinto, Licarion; Díaz Nieto, César Horacio; Zón, María Alicia; Fernández, Héctor; de Araujo, Mario Cesar Ugulino

    2016-01-01

    Biogenic amines (BAs) are used for identifying spoilage in food. The most common are tryptamine (TRY), 2-phenylethylamine (PHE), putrescine (PUT), cadaverine (CAD) and histamine (HIS). Due to lack of chromophores, chemical derivatization with dansyl was employed to analyze these BAs using high performance liquid chromatography with a diode array detector (HPLC-DAD). However, the derivatization reaction occurs with any primary or secondary amine, leading to co-elution of analytes and interferents with identical spectral profiles, and thus causing rank deficiency. When the spectral profile is the same and peak misalignment is present on the chromatographic runs, it is not possible to handle the data only with Multivariate Curve Resolution and Alternative Least Square (MCR-ALS), by augmenting the time, or the spectral mode. A way to circumvent this drawback is to receive information from another detector that leads to a selective profile for the analyte. To overcome both problems, (tri-linearity break in time, and spectral mode), this paper proposes a new analytical methodology for fast quantitation of these BAs in fish with HPLC-DAD by using the icoshift algorithm for temporal misalignment correction before MCR-ALS spectral mode augmented treatment. Limits of detection, relative errors of prediction (REP) and average recoveries, ranging from 0.14 to 0.50 µg mL(-1), 3.5-8.8% and 88.08%-99.68%, respectively. These are outstanding results obtained, reaching quantification limits for the five BAs much lower than those established by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and World Health Organization (FAO/WHO), and the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), all without any pre-concentration steps. The concentrations of BAs in fish samples ranged from 7.82 to 29.41 µg g(-1), 8.68-25.95 µg g(-1), 4.76-28.54 µg g(-1), 5.18-39.95 µg g(-1) and 1.45-52.62 µg g(-1) for TRY, PHE, PUT, CAD, and HIS, respectively. In addition, the proposed method spends

  15. Global Water Scarcity Assessment under Post-SRES Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanasaki, N.; Fujimori, S.

    2011-12-01

    A large number of future projections contributed to the fourth Assessment Report of IPCC were based on Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). Processes toward the fifth Assessment Report are under way, and post-SRES scenarios, called Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) are being prepared. One of the key challenges of SSP is provision of detailed socio-economic scenarios compared to SRES for impact, adaptation and vulnerability studies. In this study, a comprehensive global water scarcity assessment was conducted, using a state of the art global water resources model H08 (Hanasaki et al., 2008a, 2008b, 2010). We used a prototype of SSP developed by National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan. Two sets of socio economic scenarios and two sets of climate scenarios were prepared to run H08 for the period 2001-2100. Socio-economic scenarios include Business As Usual and High Mitigation Capacity. Climate scenarios include Reference and Mitigation which stabilizes green house gas concentration at a certain level. We analyzed the simulation results of four combinations, particularly focusing on the sensitivity of socio-economic scenarios to major water resources indices.

  16. Demand scenarios, worldwide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schaefer, A [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology, Center for Technology, Policy and Industrial Development and the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    1996-11-01

    Existing methods are inadequate for developing aggregate (regional and global) and long-term (several decades) passenger transport demand scenarios, since they are mainly based on simple extensions of current patterns rather than causal relationships that account for the competition among transport modes (aircraft, automobiles, buses and trains) to provide transport services. The demand scenario presented in this paper is based on two empirically proven invariances of human behavior. First, transport accounts for 10 to 15 percent of household total expenditures for those owning an automobile, and around 5 percent for non-motorized households on average (travel money budget). Second, the mean time spent traveling is approximately one hour per capita per day (travel time budget). These two budgets constraints determine the dynamics of the scenario: rising income increases per capita expenditure on travel which, in turn, increase demand for mobility. Limited travel time constraints travelers to shift to faster transport systems. The scenario is initiated with the first integrated historical data set on traffic volume in 11 world regions and the globe from 1960 to 1990 for all major modes of motorized transport. World average per capita traffic volume, which was 1,800 kilometers in 1960 and 4,2090 in 1990, is estimated to rise to 7,900 kilometers in 2020 - given a modest average increase in Gross World Product of 1.9% per year. Higher economic growth rates in Asian regions result in an increase in regional per capita traffic volume up to a factor of 5.3 from 1990 levels. Modal splits continue shifting to more flexible and faster modes of transport. At one point, passenger cars can no longer satisfy the increasing demand for speed (i.e. rising mobility within a fixed time budget). In North America it is estimated that the absolute traffic volume of automobiles will gradually decline starting in the 2010s. (author) 13 figs., 6 tabs., 35 refs.

  17. DISCERNING EXOPLANET MIGRATION MODELS USING SPIN-ORBIT MEASUREMENTS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morton, Timothy D.; Johnson, John Asher

    2011-01-01

    We investigate the current sample of exoplanet spin-orbit measurements to determine whether a dominant planet migration channel can be identified, and at what confidence. We use the predictions of Kozai migration plus tidal friction and planet-planet scattering as our misalignment models, and we allow for a fraction of intrinsically aligned systems, explainable by disk migration. Bayesian model comparison demonstrates that the current sample of 32 spin-orbit measurements strongly favors a two-mode migration scenario combining planet-planet scattering and disk migration over a single-mode Kozai migration scenario. Our analysis indicates that between 34% and 76% of close-in planets (95% confidence) migrated via planet-planet scattering. Separately analyzing the subsample of 12 stars with T eff >6250 K-which Winn et al. predict to be the only type of stars to maintain their primordial misalignments-we find that the data favor a single-mode scattering model over Kozai with 85% confidence. We also assess the number of additional hot star spin-orbit measurements that will likely be necessary to provide a more confident model selection, finding that an additional 20-30 measurement has a >50% chance of resulting in a 95% confident model selection, if the current model selection is correct. While we test only the predictions of particular Kozai and scattering migration models in this work, our methods may be used to test the predictions of any other spin-orbit misaligning mechanism.

  18. EMF 9 scenario design (EMF WP 9.4)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1989-01-01

    This paper describes the specifications of the scenarios selected by the EMF 9 Working Group, which is focusing on North American natural gas markets. The four first-round scenarios include: (1) an upper oil price path, (2) a lower oil price path, (3) a lower resource base, and (4) a higher gas demand due to policies and technologies affecting the electric utility sector. Each scenario represents a combination of market and regulatory environments. For example, the upper oil price scenario combines an upper oil price trend with a reference set of resource and demand conditions and with a pro-competitive regulatory environment. This scenario also serves as a control case for comparing the other scenarios, which specify a change in one of the environments for oil prices, resources, or demand. The regulatory environment has been maintained constant across these first-round scenarios but may be changed depending upon the later recommendations of the regulatory policy and market structure study group. The next section describes the detailed specifications for modelers in simulating the upper oil price scenario. Guidance is offered for energy prices, economic activity, and resource base estimates. The next three sections describe the other three scenarios that involve changes in these inputs from their values in the upper oil price scenario. Special wellhead price assumptions for stand-alone supply models and plans for developing inputs for Canadian models are then discussed. The final section describes the output variables to be reported to the EMF staff for comparing model results

  19. The Narrative Aspect of Scenario Building

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2008-01-01

    The application of narrative scenarios in engineering or socio-technical systems provides an important link between general ideas and specification of technical system requirements. The chapter explores how the narrative approach can enrich the scenario 'skeleton. In addition, criteria are sugges...

  20. Preliminary Safety Analysis of the Gorleben Site: Safety Concept and Application to Scenario Development Based on a Site-Specific Features, Events and Processes (FEP) Database - 13304

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moenig, Joerg; Beuth, Thomas; Wolf, Jens [Gesellschaft fuer Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) mbH, Theodor-Heuss-Str. 4, D-38122 Braunschweig (Germany); Lommerzheim, Andre [DBE TECHNOLOGY GmbH, Eschenstr. 55, D-31224 Peine (Germany); Mrugalla, Sabine [Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR), Stilleweg 2, D-30655 Hannover (Germany)

    2013-07-01

    Based upon the German safety criteria, released in 2010 by the Federal Ministry of the Environment (BMU), a safety concept and a safety assessment concept for the disposal of heat-generating high-level waste have both been developed in the framework of the preliminary safety case for the Gorleben site (Project VSG). The main objective of the disposal is to contain the radioactive waste inside a defined rock zone, which is called containment-providing rock zone. The radionuclides shall remain essentially at the emplacement site, and at the most, a small defined quantity of material shall be able to leave this rock zone. This shall be accomplished by the geological barrier and a technical barrier system, which is required to seal the inevitable penetration of the geological barrier by the construction of the mine. The safe containment has to be demonstrated for probable and less probable evolutions of the site, while evolutions with very low probability (less than 1 % over the demonstration period of 1 million years) need not to be considered. Owing to the uncertainty in predicting the real evolution of the site, plausible scenarios have been derived in a systematic manner. Therefore, a comprehensive site-specific features, events and processes (FEP) data base for the Gorleben site has been developed. The safety concept was directly taken into account, e.g. by identification of FEP with direct influence on the barriers that provide the containment. No effort was spared to identify the interactions of the FEP, their probabilities of occurrence, and their characteristics (values). The information stored in the data base provided the basis for the development of scenarios. The scenario development methodology is based on FEP related to an impairment of the functionality of a subset of barriers, called initial barriers. By taking these FEP into account in their probable characteristics the reference scenario is derived. Thus, the reference scenario describes a

  1. When Things Do Not Go as Expected: Scenario Life Savers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dieckmann, Peter; Lippert, A.; Glavin, R.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we discuss scenario life savers - interventions before and during simulation scenarios that allow to create and use relevant learning opportunities, even if unexpected events happen during the conduction of the scenario. Scenario life savers are needed, when the comprehension...... or acceptance of the scenario by the participants is at stake, thus compromising learning opportunities. Scenario life savers can principally work by bringing participants back on track of the planned scenario or by adapting the conduction to their actions on the fly. Interventions can be within the logic...... of the scenario or from the "outside," not being part of the scenario itself. Scenario life savers should be anticipated during the design of scenarios and used carefully during their conduction, aiming to maximize the learning for participants. (Sim Healthcare 5: 219-225, 2010)...

  2. SU-E-T-35: A General Fill Factor Definition Serving to Characterise the MLC Misalignment Detection Capabilities of Two-Dimensional Detector Arrays

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stelljes, T.S.; Looe, H.K.; Poppe, B. [Clinic for Radiation Therapy, Pius-Hospital, Oldenburg, DE (United States); WG Medical Radiation Physics, Carl von Ossietzky University, Oldenburg, DE (United States); Harder, D. [Prof. em., Medical Physics and Biophysics, Georg August University, Goettingen, DE (Germany)

    2015-06-15

    Purpose: To present a general definition of the fill factor realistically characterizing the “field coverage”, i.e. the MLC misalignment detection capabilities of a detector array. Methods: According to Gago-Arias et al.{sup 1} the fill factor of a 2D array is defined as the ratio of the area enclosed by the FWHM of the fluence response function KM(x) of a single detector and its cell area defined by the detector spacing. More generally - accounting also for the possible overlap between FWHM’s of neighboured detectors - the fill factor is here defined as that fraction of the sum of the detector cell areas in which a defined MLC misalignment is detectable when the induced percentage signal changes exceed a detection threshold d. Ideally the generalized fill factor may reach 100 %. With user code EGS-chamber and a 2 MeV photon slit beam 0.25 mm wide, both types of the fill factor were calculated for an array with total cell area 100 cm{sup 2} for chamber widths 1–9 mm, using =1mm, d=5%. Results: For single chamber width 5 mm, fill factors were 0.49 (FWHM) and 0.61 (generalized). For chamber width 2 mm the FWHM fill factor was 0.13 whereas the generalized fill factor was 0.32. For chamber widths above 7 mm, the FWHM fill factor exceeds unity, and the general fill factor is exactly 1.00. Conclusions: An updated fill factor definition is introduced which, as a generalization of the FWHM-based definition, more closely estimates the performance of small array chambers and gives a realistic value in the case of overlapping sensitive areas of neighboured chambers. References:{sup 1}A. Gago-Arias, L. Brualla-Gonzalez, D.M. Gonzalez-Castano, F. Gomez, M.S. Garcia, V.L. Vega, J.M. Sueiro, J. Pardo-Montero, “Evaluation of chamber response function influence on IMRT verification using 2D commercial detector arrays,” Phys. Med. Biol. 57, 2005–2020 (2012)

  3. SU-E-T-35: A General Fill Factor Definition Serving to Characterise the MLC Misalignment Detection Capabilities of Two-Dimensional Detector Arrays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stelljes, T.S.; Looe, H.K.; Poppe, B.; Harder, D.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: To present a general definition of the fill factor realistically characterizing the “field coverage”, i.e. the MLC misalignment detection capabilities of a detector array. Methods: According to Gago-Arias et al. 1 the fill factor of a 2D array is defined as the ratio of the area enclosed by the FWHM of the fluence response function KM(x) of a single detector and its cell area defined by the detector spacing. More generally - accounting also for the possible overlap between FWHM’s of neighboured detectors - the fill factor is here defined as that fraction of the sum of the detector cell areas in which a defined MLC misalignment is detectable when the induced percentage signal changes exceed a detection threshold d. Ideally the generalized fill factor may reach 100 %. With user code EGS-chamber and a 2 MeV photon slit beam 0.25 mm wide, both types of the fill factor were calculated for an array with total cell area 100 cm 2 for chamber widths 1–9 mm, using =1mm, d=5%. Results: For single chamber width 5 mm, fill factors were 0.49 (FWHM) and 0.61 (generalized). For chamber width 2 mm the FWHM fill factor was 0.13 whereas the generalized fill factor was 0.32. For chamber widths above 7 mm, the FWHM fill factor exceeds unity, and the general fill factor is exactly 1.00. Conclusions: An updated fill factor definition is introduced which, as a generalization of the FWHM-based definition, more closely estimates the performance of small array chambers and gives a realistic value in the case of overlapping sensitive areas of neighboured chambers. References: 1 A. Gago-Arias, L. Brualla-Gonzalez, D.M. Gonzalez-Castano, F. Gomez, M.S. Garcia, V.L. Vega, J.M. Sueiro, J. Pardo-Montero, “Evaluation of chamber response function influence on IMRT verification using 2D commercial detector arrays,” Phys. Med. Biol. 57, 2005–2020 (2012)

  4. The Greenpeace 2013 scenario for energy transition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cormier, Cyrille; Teske, Sven

    2013-01-01

    After a synthesis of the Greenpeace scenario for energy transition, this report presents the French current energy landscape: structure of the energy system, greenhouse gas emissions and nuclear risks, main social and economic challenges, and search for a political ambition (from the Grenelle de l'Environnement to the current debate on energy). Then, after having outlined that energy transition must be decided now, the report presents the scenario hypotheses: studies used to develop the scenario, macro-economic and technical-economic hypotheses. The scenario is then presented in terms of possible trajectory, of energy demand (global evolution per sector), of energy production (electricity, heat, mobility), and of CO 2 assessment and nuclear wastes. Scenarios are compared in social and economic terms, more particularly in terms of investments in electricity and heat production systems, of electricity production costs and electricity bill, of energy independence, and of jobs in the electricity and heat sectors

  5. Scenarios, targets, gaps, and costs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edmonds, James A.; Joos, Fortunat; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Richels, Richard G.; Sarmiento, Jorge L.

    2005-03-30

    This paper explores the connection between human activities and the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. t explores the implication of the wide range of emissions scenarios developed by the IPCC in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios and concludes that a robust finding is that major changes will be required in the global energy system if the concentration of carbon dioxide is eventually to be stabilized.

  6. ECRH and ECCD scenarios for W7-X

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laqua H.P.

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The main ECRH scenarios for the W7-X Stellarator are described. Both X2 (low and moderate densities and O2 scenarios (high density have been studied. Since O2 scenario cannot be realized without pre-heating, transition from X2 to O2 scenarios has been discussed. Due to a lack of Ohmic transformer, only ECCD is available for compensating the bootstrap current and for controlling the edge rotational transform value. The efficiency of ECCD for all main scenarios has been estimated. All simulations have been performed by a 1D transport code coupled self-consistently with ray-tracing code.

  7. Mechanisms of anterior cruciate ligament injuries in elite women's netball: a systematic video analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuelcken, Max C; Mellifont, Daniel B; Gorman, Adam D; Sayers, Mark G L

    2016-08-01

    This study involved a systematic video analysis of 16 anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injuries sustained by elite-level netball players during televised games in order to describe the game situation, the movement patterns involved, the player's behaviour, and a potential injury mechanism. Eight of the ACL injuries were classified as "indirect contact" and eight as "non-contact". Two common scenarios were identified. In Scenario A the player was jumping to receive or intercept a pass and whilst competing for the ball experienced a perturbation in the air. As a result the player's landing was unbalanced with loading occurring predominantly on the knee of the injured side. In Scenario B the player was generally in a good position at ground contact, but then noticeably altered the alignment of the trunk before the landing was completed. This involved rotating and laterally flexing the trunk without altering the alignment of the feet. Apparent knee valgus collapse on the knee of the injured side was observed in 3/6 Scenario A cases and 5/6 Scenario B cases. Players may benefit from landing training programmes that incorporate tasks that use a ball and include decision-making components or require players to learn to cope with being unbalanced.

  8. DGEMP-OE (2008) Energy Baseline Scenario. Synthesis report; Scenario energetique de reference DGEMP-OE(2008). Rapport de synthese

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2008-07-01

    A 'Business as usual' or 'Baseline' scenario of energy trends to 2020-2030 is produced by France every four years, as requested by the International Energy Agency in order to update the global scenarios published in its World Energy Outlook. Since the most recent scenario of this type was drawn up in 2003-2004, the time has come to renew the effort for the IEA's next in-depth review of French energy policy. Specifically, the DGEMP seeks to predict the future of France's energy situation assuming that no policies or new measures are taken affecting (i.e. improving or deteriorating) the situation other than those already in place or adopted as of 1 January 2008 (in other words, before measures such as those stemming from the Grenelle Environment Forum). On the other hand, it is assumed that change in the energy system is guided by 'conventional wisdom' according to which political options and behaviours by economic units are expected to be 'reasonable'. As a result, even should its projections prove inappropriate, this cannot be considered a 'worst-case' scenario. Indeed, beyond the IEA, this scenario can be used to establish an MEA (Multilateral Environment Agreement) scenario (based on existing measures) for national communications submitted under the U.N. Climate Convention. The scenarios by the 'Energy' Commission, part of the Centre d'Analyse Strategique (CAS), could have been used, particularly since the consultant who worked with the CAS to develop its scenarios was also commissioned by the DGEMP. However, several considerations argued in favour of proceeding separately: - The CAS scenarios drew on the DGEMP's 2004 baseline scenario, even though certain parameters were updated (in particular energy prices). - Moreover, the concept underpinning the DGEMP baseline scenario is that it should to every extent possible remain constant over time to secure continued consensus on this &apos

  9. Electromagnetic torques and forces due to misalignment effects and eddy currents in the homopolar generator, power supply for the Texas Experimental Tokamak (TEXT)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Driga, M.D.; Bird, W.L.; Tolk, K.M.; Weldon, W.F.; Rylander, H.G.; Woodson, H.H.

    1977-01-01

    Asymmetries in the applied magnetic field due to manufacturing tolerances and rotor-stator misalignments can cause significant forces and moments in a homopolar generator. Parasitic eddy-currents in the rotor, brushes and bearings are also important effects of such asymmetries. The finite element method is used to calculate the magnetic flux distributions in the TEXT homopolar generators. The axial magnetic thrust force and the magnetic tilt moment acting on the rotor are calculated. Eddy-current torques opposing rotor motion are determined using the theory for eddy-current brakes. The results have been used in the design of the TEXT homopolar generator which have been proposed to provide the energy store and conversion for the toroidal field and ohmic heating coils of the new Texas Experimental Tokamak

  10. Controlling for unmeasured confounding and spatial misalignment in long-term air pollution and health studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Duncan; Sarran, Christophe

    2015-11-01

    The health impact of long-term exposure to air pollution is now routinely estimated using spatial ecological studies, owing to the recent widespread availability of spatial referenced pollution and disease data. However, this areal unit study design presents a number of statistical challenges, which if ignored have the potential to bias the estimated pollution-health relationship. One such challenge is how to control for the spatial autocorrelation present in the data after accounting for the known covariates, which is caused by unmeasured confounding. A second challenge is how to adjust the functional form of the model to account for the spatial misalignment between the pollution and disease data, which causes within-area variation in the pollution data. These challenges have largely been ignored in existing long-term spatial air pollution and health studies, so here we propose a novel Bayesian hierarchical model that addresses both challenges and provide software to allow others to apply our model to their own data. The effectiveness of the proposed model is compared by simulation against a number of state-of-the-art alternatives proposed in the literature and is then used to estimate the impact of nitrogen dioxide and particulate matter concentrations on respiratory hospital admissions in a new epidemiological study in England in 2010 at the local authority level. © 2015 The Authors. Environmetrics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Global climate-oriented transportation scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harvey, L.D.D.

    2013-01-01

    This paper develops scenarios whereby CO 2 emissions from the transportation sector are eliminated worldwide by the end of this century. Data concerning the energy intensity and utilization of different passenger and freight transportation modes in 2005, and per capita income, in 10 different socio-economic regions of the world are combined with scenarios of population and per capita GDP to generate scenarios of future transportation energy demand. The impact of various technical options (improvements in the energy intensity of all transportation modes, changes in the proportions of vehicles with different drive trains, and a shift to biomass or hydrogen for the non-electricity energy requirements) and behavioural options (a shift to less energy-intensive LDV market segments, a reduction in total passenger-km of travel per capita, and an increase in the share of less energy-intensive passenger and freight modes of transport) is assessed. To eliminate transportation fossil fuel emissions within this century while limiting the demand for electricity, biofuels or hydrogen to manageable levels requires the simultaneous application of all the technical and behavioural measures considered here, with improvements in vehicle efficiencies and a shift to plug-in hybrid and battery-electric drive trains for light duty vehicles being the most important measures. - Highlights: ► Scenarios are developed whereby transportation CO 2 emissions reach zero by 2100. ► These scenarios address concerns about peak oil and global warming. ► A comprehensive mix of technical and behavioural changes is considered in 10 world regions. ► Efficiency improvements and a shift to plug-in hybrid vehicles are the most important measures

  12. Molecular Diagnostic Analysis of Outbreak Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morsink, M. C.; Dekter, H. E.; Dirks-Mulder, A.; van Leeuwen, W. B.

    2012-01-01

    In the current laboratory assignment, technical aspects of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are integrated in the context of six different bacterial outbreak scenarios. The "Enterobacterial Repetitive Intergenic Consensus Sequence" (ERIC) PCR was used to analyze different outbreak scenarios. First, groups of 2-4 students determined optimal…

  13. Combined prospective and retrospective correction to reduce motion-induced image misalignment and geometric distortions in EPI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ooi, Melvyn B; Muraskin, Jordan; Zou, Xiaowei; Thomas, William J; Krueger, Sascha; Aksoy, Murat; Bammer, Roland; Brown, Truman R

    2013-03-01

    Despite rigid-body realignment to compensate for head motion during an echo-planar imaging time-series scan, nonrigid image deformations remain due to changes in the effective shim within the brain as the head moves through the B(0) field. The current work presents a combined prospective/retrospective solution to reduce both rigid and nonrigid components of this motion-related image misalignment. Prospective rigid-body correction, where the scan-plane orientation is dynamically updated to track with the subject's head, is performed using an active marker setup. Retrospective distortion correction is then applied to unwarp the remaining nonrigid image deformations caused by motion-induced field changes. Distortion correction relative to a reference time-frame does not require any additional field mapping scans or models, but rather uses the phase information from the echo-planar imaging time-series itself. This combined method is applied to compensate echo-planar imaging scans of volunteers performing in-plane and through-plane head motions, resulting in increased image stability beyond what either prospective or retrospective rigid-body correction alone can achieve. The combined method is also assessed in a blood oxygen level dependent functional MRI task, resulting in improved Z-score statistics. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  14. Towards Validating Game Scenarios for Teaching Conflict Resolution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cheong, Yun-Gyung; Grappiolo, Corrado; Pedersen, Christoffer Holmgård

    2013-01-01

    Teaching conflict resolution skills via serious games has received increasing attention in recent years. This paper describes game scenarios that were developed to evoke variant levels of conflict intensity to children. To validate the scenarios, we implemented a prototype and created videos from...... play-throughs of the prototype. We then carried out a user study and ran statistical analyses to test if children would perceive the game scenarios as intended by scenario designers in terms of conflict....

  15. Climate change scenario data for the national parks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scott, D.

    2003-01-01

    This report presents daily scenario data obtained from monthly time scale climate change scenarios. The scenarios were applied to a stochastic weather generator, a statistical tool that simulates daily weather data for a range of climates at a particular location. The weather generators simulate weather that is statistically similar to observed climate data from climate stations. They can also generate daily scenario data for monthly time scales. This low cost computational method offers site-specific, multi-year climate change scenarios at a daily temporal level. The data is useful for situations that rely on climate thresholds such as forest fire season, drought conditions, or recreational season length. Data sets for temperature, precipitation and frost days was provided for 3 national parks for comparative evaluations. Daily scenarios for other parks can be derived using global climate model (GCM) output data through the Long Ashton Research Station (LARS) weather generator program. tabs

  16. Italian energy scenarios: Markal model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gracceva, Francesco

    2005-01-01

    Energy scenarios carried out through formal models comply with scientific criteria such as internal coherence and transparency. Besides, Markal methodology allows a good understanding of the complex nature of the energy system. The business-as-usual scenario carried out through the Markal-Italy model shows that structural changes occurring in end-use sectors will continue to drive up energy consumption, in spite of the slow economic growth and the quite high energy prices [it

  17. Developing scenarios for the Norwegian travel industry 2025

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anniken Enger

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose – The Norwegian travel industry faces decline in important international tourism segments and needs an industry wide and future‐oriented strategy to face these challenges. Accordingly, a common understanding of future drivers and different scenarios for the industry is needed. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – Using the process of scenario analysis and drawing upon the involvement of the tourism industry, this paper describes the method, drivers, scenarios, and implications. Findings – The research identified six important drivers with predictable outcomes: uneven global economic development, digitalization, climate change, consumer demand – return on time, centralization, and demography. The Norwegian economy and Norwegian politics were the two drivers that stood out as the most significant for the tourism industry, with a very uncertain outcome, and constituted the two axes of the scenarios. This resulted in four scenarios: Money Rules, The Urban Diamond, Opportunities for All, and Master Plan. Practical implications – The four scenarios represent different economic value of international tourism in Norway. The Opportunities for All and Master Plan scenarios represent the greatest economic value for Norwegian tourism. They indicate great opportunities for tourism to become the “new oil” in Norway if the oil economy declines. The two scenarios differ with respect to the degree of governance control vs market liberalization. The scenarios will be used to identify implications and risks for different parts of the tourism industry, and to further explore how governance control and market liberalization may be combined. Originality/value – The research identified six drivers which are significant for the Norwegian tourism industry. This resulted in four scenarios which are used to identify implications and risks for different parts of the industry.

  18. The HayWired Earthquake Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.

    2017-04-24

    ForewordThe 1906 Great San Francisco earthquake (magnitude 7.8) and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake (magnitude 6.9) each motivated residents of the San Francisco Bay region to build countermeasures to earthquakes into the fabric of the region. Since Loma Prieta, bay-region communities, governments, and utilities have invested tens of billions of dollars in seismic upgrades and retrofits and replacements of older buildings and infrastructure. Innovation and state-of-the-art engineering, informed by science, including novel seismic-hazard assessments, have been applied to the challenge of increasing seismic resilience throughout the bay region. However, as long as people live and work in seismically vulnerable buildings or rely on seismically vulnerable transportation and utilities, more work remains to be done.With that in mind, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and its partners developed the HayWired scenario as a tool to enable further actions that can change the outcome when the next major earthquake strikes. By illuminating the likely impacts to the present-day built environment, well-constructed scenarios can and have spurred officials and citizens to take steps that change the outcomes the scenario describes, whether used to guide more realistic response and recovery exercises or to launch mitigation measures that will reduce future risk.The HayWired scenario is the latest in a series of like-minded efforts to bring a special focus onto the impacts that could occur when the Hayward Fault again ruptures through the east side of the San Francisco Bay region as it last did in 1868. Cities in the east bay along the Richmond, Oakland, and Fremont corridor would be hit hardest by earthquake ground shaking, surface fault rupture, aftershocks, and fault afterslip, but the impacts would reach throughout the bay region and far beyond. The HayWired scenario name reflects our increased reliance on the Internet and telecommunications and also alludes to the

  19. Climate change scenarios for Canada's national parks : a users manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, B.; Wun, N.; Scott, D.; Barrow, E.

    2003-01-01

    A screening level impact assessment has shown that the implications of climate change for Canada's national parks are considerable. Climate change scenarios will be an important component in examining the potential climate change impacts and the implications of adaptation strategies. Most climate change scenarios are based on vulnerability, impact and adaptation research. This user's manual describes the development of 3 types of climate change scenarios including scenarios from global climate models (GCMs), bioclimate scenarios and daily scenarios for use by Parks Canada. The manual offers advice to first-time climate change scenario users in choosing and interpreting climate change, bioclimate and daily scenarios. It also addresses the theoretical and practical foundations of each climate scenario and shows how to access data regarding the various scenarios. Hands-on exercises are included as an interpretive aid. 20 refs., 4 tabs., 19 figs

  20. Ontario demand response scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowlands, I.H.

    2005-09-01

    Strategies for demand management in Ontario were examined via 2 scenarios for a commercial/institutional building with a normal summertime peak load of 300 kW between 14:00 and 18:00 during a period of high electricity demand and high electricity prices. The first scenario involved the deployment of a 150 kW on-site generator fuelled by either diesel or natural gas. The second scenario involved curtailing load by 60 kW during the same periods. Costs and benefits of both scenarios were evaluated for 3 groups: consumers, system operators and society. Benefits included electricity cost savings, deferred transmission capacity development, lower system prices for electricity, as well as environmental changes, economic development, and a greater sense of corporate social responsibility. It was noted that while significant benefits were observed for all 3 groups, they were not substantial enough to encourage action, as the savings arising from deferred generation capacity development do not accrue to individual players. The largest potential benefit was identified as lower prices, spread across all users of electricity in Ontario. It was recommended that representative bodies cooperate so that the system-wide benefits can be reaped. It was noted that if 10 municipal utilities were able to have 250 commercial or institutional customers engaged in distributed response, then a total peak demand reduction of 375 MW could be achieved, representing more than 25 per cent of Ontario's target for energy conservation. It was concluded that demand response often involves the investment of capital and new on-site procedures, which may affect reactions to various incentives. 78 refs., 10 tabs., 5 figs

  1. Stellar aberration correction and thermoelastic compensation of Swarm μASC attitude observations: A comment to the Express Letter “Mysterious misalignments between geomagnetic and stellar reference frames seen in CHAMP and Swarm satellite measurements”, by Stefan Maus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herceg, M.; Jørgensen, P. S.; Jørgensen, J. L.

    2017-01-01

    . However, comparison of the Inter Boresight Angle shows a relative attitude variation between the μASC Camera Head Units. These misalignments between Camera Head Units and a geomagnetic reference frame cannot be explained by incorrect aberration correction (as theorized by Maus). Herceg et al. found them...... and clean from any variation caused by thermoelastic effects....

  2. Base case and perturbation scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edmunds, T

    1998-10-01

    This report describes fourteen energy factors that could affect electricity markets in the future (demand, process, source mix, etc.). These fourteen factors are believed to have the most influence on the State's energy environment. A base case, or most probable, characterization is given for each of these fourteen factors over a twenty year time horizon. The base case characterization is derived from quantitative and qualitative information provided by State of California government agencies, where possible. Federal government databases are nsed where needed to supplement the California data. It is envisioned that a initial selection of issue areas will be based upon an evaluation of them under base case conditions. For most of the fourteen factors, the report identities possible perturbations from base case values or assumptions that may be used to construct additional scenarios. Only those perturbations that are plausible and would have a significant effect on energy markets are included in the table. The fourteen factors and potential perturbations of the factors are listed in Table 1.1. These perturbations can be combined to generate internally consist.ent. combinations of perturbations relative to the base case. For example, a low natural gas price perturbation should be combined with a high natural gas demand perturbation. The factor perturbations are based upon alternative quantitative forecasts provided by other institutions (the Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration in some cases), changes in assumptions that drive the quantitative forecasts, or changes in assumptions about the structure of the California energy markets. The perturbations are intended to be used for a qualitative reexamination of issue areas after an initial evaluation under the base case. The perturbation information would be used as a "tiebreaker;" to make decisions regarding those issue areas that were marginally accepted or rejected under the base case. Hf a

  3. Constraints on SU2xU1 breaking by vacuum misalignment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Banks, T.

    1984-01-01

    We examine a proposal of Georgi and Kaplan for raising the scale of technicolor. In scalarless vectorlike technicolor models with massless techni-fermions we show that the proposal does not work. We present a simple model which realizes the Georgi-Kaplan scenario with a partially chiral technicolor group. The model requires fine tuning of the ratio of two weak coupling constants with an accuracy of O(10 -4 ). We argue that the fine-tuning problem is quite general. (orig.)

  4. Hazards study of environmental protection classified facilities. Scenarios analysis; Etude de dangers des ICPE. Analyse des scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seveque, J.L. [Cour d' Appel d' Amiens, 80 (France)

    2006-04-15

    This article describes the analysis and study of the possible impacts of accidents occurring at industrial facilities classified with respect to the environment protection. The operators of such facilities have to describe the possible risks and their consequences, the measures taken to prevent them and the level of residual risk. Therefore, it consists in calculating the consequences of all possible aggressions that a facility can undergo. The receptors are of 2 type: the human body (burns, asphyxia, intoxication, shock wave, projectile), and the surrounding equipments (fire, unconfined vapour cloud explosion (UVCE), boiling liquid expanding vapour explosion (BLEVE), fireball, dispersion of toxic gases). Content: 1 - fire-type scenario: description, modeling of thermal effects, conclusion; 2 - UVCE-type scenario: description, Lannoy method (TNT equivalent), multi-energy method, conclusion; 3 - BLEVE-type scenario: description, modeling of overpressure effects, thermal effects of the fireball; 4 - toxic cloud scenario: modeling of a toxic cloud dispersion, effects and consequences; 5 - conclusions. (J.S.)

  5. On the role of climate scenarios for adaptation planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dessai, S.; Xianfu Lu; Risbey, J.S.

    2005-01-01

    Climate scenarios have been widely used in impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments of climate change. However, few studies have actually looked at the role played by climate scenarios in adaptation planning. This paper examines how climate scenarios fit in three broad adaptation frameworks: the IPCC approach, risk approaches, and human development approaches. The use (or not) of climate scenarios in three real projects, corresponding to each adaptation approach, is investigated. It is shown that the role played by climate scenarios is dependant on the adaptation assessment approach, availability of technical and financial capacity to handle scenario information, and the type of adaptation being considered. (author)

  6. Head injury causation scenarios for belted, rear-seated children in frontal impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohman, Katarina; Arbogast, Kristy B; Bostrom, Ola

    2011-02-01

    Head injuries are the most common serious injuries sustained by children in motor vehicle crashes and are of critical importance with regard to long-term disability. There is a lack of understanding of how seat belt-restrained children sustain head injuries in frontal impacts. The aim of the study was to identify the AIS2+ head injury causation scenarios for rear-seated, belt-restrained children in frontal impacts, including the set of parameters contributing to the injury. In-depth crash investigations from two National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) databases, the National Automotive Sampling System-Crashworthiness Data System (NASS-CDS; 1997-2008) and the Crash Injury Research and Engineering Network (CIREN; 1996-2009), were collected and analyzed in detail. Selection criteria were all frontal impacts with principal direction of force (PDOF) of 11, 12, and 1 o'clock involving rear-seated, three-point belt-restrained, with or without booster cushion, children from 3 to 13 years with an AIS2+ head injury. Cases were analyzed using the BioTab method of injury causation assessment in order to systematically analyze the injury causation scenario for each case. There were 27 cases meeting the inclusion criteria, 19 cases with MAIS2 head injuries and 8 cases with MAIS3+ head injuries, including 2 fatalities. Three major injury causation scenarios were identified, including head contact with seatback (10 cases), head contact with side interior (7 cases,) and no evidence of head contact (9 cases). Head injuries with seatback or side interior contact typically included a PDOF greater than 10 degree (similar to the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety [IIHS] and EuroNCAP offset frontal testing) and vehicle maneuvers. For seatback contact, the vehicle's movements contributed to occupant kinematics inboard the vehicle, causing a less than optimal restraint of the torso and/or torso roll out of the shoulder belt. For side interior contact, the PDOF and

  7. Interactive Scenario Visualization for User-Based Service Development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van 't Klooster, J.W.J.R.; van Beijnum, Bernhard J.F.; Eliens, A.P.W.; Hermens, Hermanus J.

    2012-01-01

    Scenarios are commonly used to develop new systems in multidisciplinary projects. However, written scenarios are sequential, not dynamic and often too abstract or difficult to understand for end users. The goal of this paper hence is to extend the use of scenarios in design methodologies, using an

  8. New reactors concepts and scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gandini, A.

    2001-01-01

    In recent years an increasing interest is observed with respect to subcritical, accelerator driven systems (ADS), for their possible role in perspective future nuclear energy scenarios, as actinide (Pu and MA) incinerators, and/or claimed energy plants with potential enhanced safety characteristics. Important research programs are devoted to the various related fields of research. Extensive studies on the ADS behavior under incidental conditions are in particular made, for verifying their claimed advantage, under the safety point of view, with respect to the corresponding critical reactors. Corresponding medium and long range scenarios are being studied to cope with a number of concerns associated with the safety (power excursions. residual heat risk), as well as with the fuel flow (criticality accidents, fuel diversion, radiological risk, proliferation). In the present work we shall try to review current lines of research in this field, and comment on possible scenarios so far envisaged. (author)

  9. Minimizing worst-case and average-case makespan over scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Feuerstein, Esteban; Marchetti-Spaccamela, Alberto; Schalekamp, Frans; Sitters, R.A.; van der Ster, Suzanne; Stougie, Leen; van Zuylen, Anke

    2017-01-01

    We consider scheduling problems over scenarios where the goal is to find a single assignment of the jobs to the machines which performs well over all scenarios in an explicitly given set. Each scenario is a subset of jobs that must be executed in that scenario. The two objectives that we consider

  10. Group 1: Scenario design and development issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherwin, P.

    1981-01-01

    All LOFT scenarios and flight segments should be designed on the basis of a detailed statement of specific objectives. These objectives must state what kind of situation is to be addressed and why. The origin, routing, and destination of a particular scenario should be dictated by the specific objectives for that scenario or leg. Other factors to be considered are the desired weather, climate, etc. Simulator visual system, as well as other capabilities and limitations must be considered at a very early stage of scenario design. The simulator navigation area must be apropriate and must coincide with current Jeppeson charts. Much of the realism of LOFT is destroyed if the crew is unable to use current manuals and other materials.

  11. Study of the effect of distance and misalignment between magnetically coupled coils for wireless power transfer in intraocular pressure measurement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rendon-Nava, Adrian E; Díaz-Méndez, J Alejandro; Nino-de-Rivera, Luis; Calleja-Arriaga, Wilfrido; Gil-Carrasco, Felix; Díaz-Alonso, Daniela

    2014-01-01

    An analysis of the effect of distance and alignment between two magnetically coupled coils for wireless power transfer in intraocular pressure measurement is presented. For measurement purposes, a system was fabricated consisting of an external device, which is a Maxwell-Wien bridge circuit variation, in charge of transferring energy to a biomedical implant and reading data from it. The biomedical implant is an RLC tank circuit, encapsulated by a polyimide coating. Power transfer was done by magnetic induction coupling method, by placing one of the inductors of the Maxwell-Wien bridge circuit and the inductor of the implant in close proximity. The Maxwell-Wien bridge circuit was biased with a 10 MHz sinusoidal signal. The analysis presented in this paper proves that wireless transmission of power for intraocular pressure measurement is feasible with the measurement system proposed. In order to have a proper inductive coupling link, special care must be taken when placing the two coils in proximity to avoid misalignment between them.

  12. Study of the Effect of Distance and Misalignment between Magnetically Coupled Coils for Wireless Power Transfer in Intraocular Pressure Measurement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrian E. Rendon-Nava

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available An analysis of the effect of distance and alignment between two magnetically coupled coils for wireless power transfer in intraocular pressure measurement is presented. For measurement purposes, a system was fabricated consisting of an external device, which is a Maxwell-Wien bridge circuit variation, in charge of transferring energy to a biomedical implant and reading data from it. The biomedical implant is an RLC tank circuit, encapsulated by a polyimide coating. Power transfer was done by magnetic induction coupling method, by placing one of the inductors of the Maxwell-Wien bridge circuit and the inductor of the implant in close proximity. The Maxwell-Wien bridge circuit was biased with a 10 MHz sinusoidal signal. The analysis presented in this paper proves that wireless transmission of power for intraocular pressure measurement is feasible with the measurement system proposed. In order to have a proper inductive coupling link, special care must be taken when placing the two coils in proximity to avoid misalignment between them.

  13. Gauge theories of partial compositeness: scenarios for Run-II of the LHC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferretti, Gabriele

    2016-01-01

    We continue our investigation of gauge theories in which the Higgs boson arises as a pseudo-Nambu-Goldstone boson (pNGB) and top-partners arise as bound states of three hyperfermions. All models have additional pNGBs in their spectrum that should be accessible at LHC. We analyze the patterns of symmetry breaking and present all relevant couplings of the pNGBs with the gauge fields. We discuss how vacuum misalignment and a mass for the pNGBs is generated by a loop-induced potential. Finally, we paint a very broad, qualitative, picture of the kind of experimental signatures these models give rise to, setting the stage for further analysis.

  14. Scenario research: Can the future be predicted?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette

    2000-01-01

    Mr. Jensen sits at the computer in his office wondering what to cook for dinner. He browses through the web site of his usual supermarket. Today's menu is fish. He skims the recipe that also informs him when, where and how the fish was caught. The fish is quite expensive but it has a story to tel...... and supplemented at workshops - one for each of the four sectors. Experts from industry, trade organisations, retailing, authorities and other interested parties participated....... of the project has been to develop scenarios for four sectors of the Danish food industry - meat, dairy, fish and fruit and vegetables - for 2010. The scenarios are put together with the purpose of making the food industry and food research reflect on which demands their competencies will be met with in various...... possible futures. In the process of creating the scenarios, researchers at MAPP and the Danish Technical University formulated mini scenarios based on their research. The scenarios were used as inspiration in discussions with experts from industry, trade organisations, authorities etc. and later discussed...

  15. SAFRR Tsunami Scenarios and USGS-NTHMP Collaboration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, S.; Wood, N. J.; Cox, D. A.; Jones, L.; Cheung, K. F.; Chock, G.; Gately, K.; Jones, J. L.; Lynett, P. J.; Miller, K.; Nicolsky, D.; Richards, K.; Wein, A. M.; Wilson, R. I.

    2015-12-01

    Hazard scenarios provide emergency managers and others with information to help them prepare for future disasters. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, published in 2013, modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. It presented the modeled inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. It provided the basis for many exercises involving, among others, NOAA, the State of Washington, several counties in California, and the National Institutes of Health. The scenario led to improvements in the warning protocol for southern California and highlighted issues that led to ongoing work on harbor and marina safety. Building on the lessons learned in the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, another tsunami scenario is being developed with impacts to Hawaii and to the source region in Alaska, focusing on the evacuation issues of remote communities with primarily shore parallel roads, and also on the effects of port closures. Community exposure studies in Hawaii (Ratliff et al., USGS-SIR, 2015) provided background for selecting these foci. One complicated and important aspect of any hazard scenario is defining the source event. The USGS is building collaborations with the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) to consider issues involved in developing a standardized set of tsunami sources to support hazard mitigation work. Other key USGS-NTHMP collaborations involve population vulnerability and evacuation modeling.

  16. The role of renal function loss on circadian misalignment of cytokines EPO, IGF-1, IL-6 and TNF-alfa in chronic renal disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Putten, Karien; Koch, Birgit; van Someren, Eus; Wielders, Jos; Ter Wee, Piet; Nagtegaal, Elsbeth; Gaillard, Carlo

    2011-01-01

    Chronic inflammation plays a pivotal role in the development of renal disease. Circadian sleep-wake rhythm is disturbed in renal disease. Awareness of other disturbed rhythms, such as inflammation processes, can affect the treatment of patients with renal disease. Knowledge of possibly related circadian misalignment of the cytokines erythropoietin (EPO), Insulin Growth Factor-1 (IGF-1) and interleukins (IL) however is limited. We therefore performed an observational study. The objective of this study was to characterize levels of EPO, IGF-1 and inflammation markers IL-6 and TNF-α, related to renal function. The study population consisted of patients with various degrees of renal function, admitted to our hospital. During 24 hours, blood of 28 subjects with various degrees of renal function was collected every 2 hours. The patients were stable, not acutely ill and they were waiting for a procedure, such as elective surgery. Circadian parameters of EPO, IGF-1, IL-6 and TNF-α were measured in serum and were correlated with glomerular filtration rate (GFR) and Hb, using Pearson correlations. Although diurnal variations in EPO level were found in 15 out of 28 patients, the curves did not show a consistent phase. The presence of an EPO rhythm was not related to GFR. No diurnal rhythm could be detected for IGF-1, IL-6 and TNF-α. Mean levels of IGF-1 were correlated inversely to mean levels of EPO (p=0.03). When divided based on GFR and Hb subjects with GFR 10-30 ml/min and lower Hb had the highest IGF-1 levels (p=0.02). A relationship between Il-6, TNF-α and EPO or GFR was not found. The existence of a circadian (mis)alignment of EPO, IGF-1, IL-6 and TNF-α was not found. The association between high IGF-1 and low Hb suggests that EPO and IGF-1 have an alternating role, dependent on GFR, in stimulating erythropoiesis. These results could have consequences for the treatment of anemia.

  17. Energy transition: from national scenarios to European policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mathieu, Mathilde

    2013-01-01

    This thesis aims at seeing how an analysis of national scenarios of energy transition may contribute to the elaboration of European energy and climate policies. The author first identifies the characteristics of energy scenarios, and the relationship between a scenario considered as an object on the one hand, and a vision for the long term on the other hand. She proposes an analysis framework which enables a comparative analysis of scenarios in order to identify stakes and challenges for the future European policy. In the second part, the author presents three examples (Germany, United Kingdom and France) and discusses their political context and adopted scenarios. After an overview of existing European energy and climate policies, the results of the analysis are given for two specific sectors: transports and electricity

  18. Emissions Scenarios and Fossil-fuel Peaking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brecha, R.

    2008-12-01

    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenarios are based on detailed energy system models in which demographics, technology and economics are used to generate projections of future world energy consumption, and therefore, of greenhouse gas emissions. Built into the assumptions for these scenarios are estimates for ultimately recoverable resources of various fossil fuels. There is a growing chorus of critics who believe that the true extent of recoverable fossil resources is much smaller than the amounts taken as a baseline for the IPCC scenarios. In a climate optimist camp are those who contend that "peak oil" will lead to a switch to renewable energy sources, while others point out that high prices for oil caused by supply limitations could very well lead to a transition to liquid fuels that actually increase total carbon emissions. We examine a third scenario in which high energy prices, which are correlated with increasing infrastructure, exploration and development costs, conspire to limit the potential for making a switch to coal or natural gas for liquid fuels. In addition, the same increasing costs limit the potential for expansion of tar sand and shale oil recovery. In our qualitative model of the energy system, backed by data from short- and medium-term trends, we have a useful way to gain a sense of potential carbon emission bounds. A bound for 21st century emissions is investigated based on two assumptions: first, that extractable fossil-fuel resources follow the trends assumed by "peak oil" adherents, and second, that little is done in the way of climate mitigation policies. If resources, and perhaps more importantly, extraction rates, of fossil fuels are limited compared to assumptions in the emissions scenarios, a situation can arise in which emissions are supply-driven. However, we show that even in this "peak fossil-fuel" limit, carbon emissions are high enough to surpass 550 ppm or 2°C climate protection guardrails. Some

  19. Scenarios for the LHC Upgrade

    CERN Document Server

    Scandale, Walter

    2008-01-01

    The projected lifetime of the LHC low-beta quadrupoles, the evolution of the statistical error halving time, and the physics potential all call for an LHC luminosity upgrade by the middle of the coming decade. In the framework of the CARE-HHH network three principal scenarios have been developed for increasing the LHC peak luminosity by more than a factor of 10, to values above 1035 cm−2s−1. All scenarios imply a rebuilding of the high-luminosity interaction regions (IRs) in combination with a consistent change of beam parameters. However, their respective features, bunch structures, IR layouts, merits and challenges, and luminosity variation with β∗ differ substantially. In all scenarios luminosity leveling during a store would be advantageous for the physics experiments. An injector upgrade must complement the upgrade measures in the LHC proper in order to provide the beam intensity and brightness needed as well as to reduce the LHC turnaround time for higher integrated luminosity.

  20. World Energy Scenarios: Composing energy futures to 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frei, Christoph; Whitney, Rob; Schiffer, Hans-Wilhelm; Rose, Karl; Rieser, Dan A.; Al-Qahtani, Ayed; Thomas, Philip; Turton, Hal; Densing, Martin; Panos, Evangelos; Volkart, Kathrin

    2013-01-01

    The World Energy Scenarios: Composing energy futures to 2050 is the result of a three-year study conducted by over 60 experts from nearly 30 countries, with modelling provided by the Paul Scherrer Institute. The report assesses two contrasting policy scenarios, the more consumer driven Jazz scenario and the more voter-driven Symphony scenario with a key differentiator being the ability of countries to pass through the Doha Climate Gateway. The WEC scenarios use an explorative approach to assess what is actually happening in the world now, to help gauge what will happen in the future and the real impact of today's choices on tomorrow's energy landscape. Rather than telling policy-makers and senior energy leaders what to do in order to achieve a specific policy goal, the WEC's World Energy Scenarios allow them to test the key assumptions that decision-makers decide to better shape the energy of tomorrow This document includes the French and English versions of the executive summary and the English version of the full report

  1. New Methods for Crafting Locally Decision-Relevant Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lempert, R. J.

    2015-12-01

    Scenarios can play an important role in helping decision makers to imagine future worlds, both good and bad, different than the one with which we are familiar and to take concrete steps now to address the risks generated by climate change. At their best, scenarios can effectively represent deep uncertainty; integrate over multiple domains; and enable parties with different expectation and values to expand the range of futures they consider, to see the world from different points of view, and to grapple seriously with the potential implications of surprising or inconvenient futures. These attributes of scenario processes can prove crucial in helping craft effective responses to climate change. But traditional scenario methods can also fail to overcome difficulties related to choosing, communicating, and using scenarios to identify, evaluate, and reach consensus on appropriate policies. Such challenges can limit scenario's impact in broad public discourse. This talk will demonstrate how new decision support approaches can employ new quantitative tools that allow scenarios to emerge from a process of deliberation with analysis among stakeholders, rather than serve as inputs to it, thereby increasing the impacts of scenarios on decision making. This talk will demonstrate these methods in the design of a decision support tool to help residents of low lying coastal cities grapple with the long-term risks of sea level rise. In particular, this talk will show how information from the IPCC SSP's can be combined with local information to provide a rich set of locally decision-relevant information.

  2. Global energy scenarios, climate change and sustainable development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

    2003-01-01

    Energy scenarios provide a framework for exploring future energy perspectives, including various combinations of technology options and their implications. Many scenarios in the literature illustrate how energy system developments may affect global change. Examples are the new emissions scenarios by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the energy scenarios by the World Energy Assessment (WEA). Some of these scenarios describe energy futures that are compatible with sustainable development goals; such as improved energy efficiencies and the adoption of advanced energy supply technologies. Sustainable development scenarios are also characterized by low environmental impacts (at local, regional and global scales) and equitable allocation of resources and wealth. They can help explore different transitions toward sustainable development paths and alternative energy perspectives in general. The considerable differences in expected total energy requirements among the scenarios reflect the varying approaches used to address the need for energy services in the future and demonstrate effects of different policy frameworks, changes in human behavior and investments in the future, as well as alternative unfolding of the main scenario driving forces such as demographic transitions, economic development and technological change. Increases in research, development and deployment efforts for new energy technologies are a prerequisite for achieving further social and economic development in the world. Significant technological advances will be required, as well as incremental improvements in conventional energy technologies. In general, significant policy and behavioral changes will be needed during the next few decades to achieve more sustainable development paths and mitigate climate change toward the end of the century. (au)

  3. Solidarity and conflict: aligned and misaligned prosody as a transactional resource in intra- and intercultural communication involving power differences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roth, Wolff-Michael; Tobin, Kenneth

    2010-12-01

    This ethnographic study of teaching and learning in urban high school science classes investigates the ways in which teachers and students talk, gesture, and use space and time in interaction rituals. In situations where teachers coteach as a means of learning to teach in inner-city schools, successful teacher-teacher collaborations are characterized by prosodic expressions that converge over time and adapt to match the prosodic parameters of students' talk. In these situations our ethnographic data provide evidence of solidarity and positive emotions among the teachers and also between students and teachers. Unsuccessful collaborations are associated with considerable differences in pitch between consecutive speakers participating in turns-at-talk, these being related to the production of negative emotions and conflicts at longer time scales. Situational conflicts are co-expressed by increases in pitch levels, speech intensities, and speech rates; and conflict resolution is accelerated by the coordination of pitch levels. Our study therefore suggests that prosodic alignment and misalignment are resources that are pragmatically deployed to manage face-to-face interactions that have solidarity and conflict as their longer-term outcomes.

  4. A Step-by-Step Framework on Discrete Events Simulation in Emergency Department; A Systematic Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dehghani, Mahsa; Moftian, Nazila; Rezaei-Hachesu, Peyman; Samad-Soltani, Taha

    2017-04-01

    To systematically review the current literature of simulation in healthcare including the structured steps in the emergency healthcare sector by proposing a framework for simulation in the emergency department. For the purpose of collecting the data, PubMed and ACM databases were used between the years 2003 and 2013. The inclusion criteria were to select English-written articles available in full text with the closest objectives from among a total of 54 articles retrieved from the databases. Subsequently, 11 articles were selected for further analysis. The studies focused on the reduction of waiting time and patient stay, optimization of resources allocation, creation of crisis and maximum demand scenarios, identification of overcrowding bottlenecks, investigation of the impact of other systems on the existing system, and improvement of the system operations and functions. Subsequently, 10 simulation steps were derived from the relevant studies after an expert's evaluation. The 10-steps approach proposed on the basis of the selected studies provides simulation and planning specialists with a structured method for both analyzing problems and choosing best-case scenarios. Moreover, following this framework systematically enables the development of design processes as well as software implementation of simulation problems.

  5. Systematic preparation, execution and evaluation of emergency exercises at the Beznau nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tenschert, J.

    2011-01-01

    Based on federal acts and a specific guideline of the nuclear authority ENSI, strict requirements are imposed on emergency exercises at Swiss NPPs. The Beznau NPP has conducted emergency exercises for more than 30 years. Systematic exercise planning assures that all emergency cases defined in the plant-specific emergency plan are considered in the exercise scenarios. Technically oriented scenarios cover all groups of initiating events and all safety levels of the defense in depth principle. The exercise results are an important input for optimization measures in the areas of emergency organization, documentation and infrastructure. Due to the goal-oriented enforcement of laws and guidelines by the nuclear authority ENSI, emergency exercises serve as a motor of further optimization of emergency preparedness. (orig.)

  6. Validation of EOPs/FRGs Procedures Using LOHS Scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bajs, T.; Konjarek, D.; Vukovic, J.

    2012-01-01

    Validation of EOPs (Emergency Operating Procedures) and FRGs (Function Restoration Guidelines) can be achieved either through plant full scope simulator or on desk top exercises. The desk top exercise is conducted when for the given scenario plant full scope simulator is not suitable. In either verification cases predefined scenario should be evaluated and possible branching foreseen. The scenario presented is LOHS, with bleed and feed procedure initiated. Best estimate light water reactor transient analysis code RELAP5/mod3.3 was used in calculation. Standardized detailed plant model was used. Operator actions were modelled from beginning of the scenario to its termination.(author).

  7. Analysis of JT-60SA operational scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garzotti, L.; Barbato, E.; Garcia, J.; Hayashi, N.; Voitsekhovitch, I.; Giruzzi, G.; Maget, P.; Romanelli, M.; Saarelma, S.; Stankiewitz, R.; Yoshida, M.; Zagórski, R.

    2018-02-01

    Reference scenarios for the JT-60SA tokamak have been simulated with one-dimensional transport codes to assess the stationary state of the flat-top phase and provide a profile database for further physics studies (e.g. MHD stability, gyrokinetic analysis) and diagnostics design. The types of scenario considered vary from pulsed standard H-mode to advanced non-inductive steady-state plasmas. In this paper we present the results obtained with the ASTRA, CRONOS, JINTRAC and TOPICS codes equipped with the Bohm/gyro-Bohm, CDBM and GLF23 transport models. The scenarios analysed here are: a standard ELMy H-mode, a hybrid scenario and a non-inductive steady state plasma, with operational parameters from the JT-60SA research plan. Several simulations of the scenarios under consideration have been performed with the above mentioned codes and transport models. The results from the different codes are in broad agreement and the main plasma parameters generally agree well with the zero dimensional estimates reported previously. The sensitivity of the results to different transport models and, in some cases, to the ELM/pedestal model has been investigated.

  8. Scenarios for the food industry in 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harmsen, Hanne; Jensen, Birger Boutrup; Sonne, Anne-Mette

    2001-01-01

    visions of the future of the food industry and to assess their implications for competence requirements. Given the uncertain nature of the environment, food companies cannot rely on today's competencies being sufficient to fulfil the demands of tomorrow's markets. However, predicting the determinants......Predicting the future is impossible; corporate decision-makers have, however, to decide which competencies to develop precisely on this basis. This article presents the results of a research project on scenario analyses in the Danish food industry. The aim of the study is to look at alternative...... of success in the food industry 10 years hence is a daunting task. Scenario techniques can be very useful in this respect (von Reibnitz, 1988). The contribution of the article is the methodological approach to scenario building, which combines academic and industry input and translates the scenarios...

  9. Vacuum alignment and radiatively induced Fermi scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alanne Tommi

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We extend the discussion about vacuum misalignment by quantum corrections in models with composite pseudo-Goldstone Higgs boson to renormalisable models with elementary scalars. As a concrete example, we propose a framework, where the hierarchy between the unification and the Fermi scale emerges radiatively. This scenario provides an interesting link between the unification and Fermi scale physics.

  10. JAXA's Space Exploration Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, N. S.

    2018-04-01

    Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) has been studying space exploration scenario, including human exploration for Japan since 2015, which encompasses goals, knowledge gap assessment, and architecture. assessment, and technology roadmap.

  11. NEC-2020 emission reduction scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Slentø, Erik; Nielsen, Ole-Kenneth; Hoffmann, Leif

    The upcoming NEC-2020 EU directive sets up emission ceilings for NOX, SO2, NH3, NMVOC and PM in order to meet the environmental exposure targets of the Thematic Strategy. This report contains an assessment of intermediary emission reduction scenarios for Denmark, computed by the GAINS model 2007,......, which serves as the basis for the pending negotiations in EU. The assessment is brought up to date by including a brief evaluation of the new reduction scenarios published in 2008, founding the European Commission NEC-2020 directive proposal....

  12. Child-Specific Exposure Scenarios Examples (Final Report)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA announced the availability of the final report, Child-Specific Exposure Scenarios Examples. This report is intended to be a companion document to the Exposure Factors Handbook (U.S. EPA 2011). The example scenarios were compiled from questions and inquiries r...

  13. Scenario study on the FBR deployment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ono, Kiyoshi; Kofuji, Hirohide; Otaki, Akira; Yonezawa, Shigeaki; Shinoda, Yoshihiko; Hirao, Kazunori; Ikegami, Tetsuo

    2000-12-01

    This study on success scenarios for the Fast Breeder Reactor (FBR) deployment was performed taking account of future situation of fossil, renewable and nuclear energies in Japan as well as the world from the viewpoints of the following four items; economics, environment, energy security and restriction of natural uranium resources. In the economics scenario, if carbon tax is added to generating cost of LNG, coal and oil and the economics of FBR cycle is competitive with LWR cycle in the future, FBR cycle will be expected to introduce as the middle and base load power plant. In the environment scenario, there is also any possibility that FBR cycle which can burn and transmute minor actinide and fission product elements will be introduced in order to reduce the burden of deposit facility and the toxicity of high-level waste. In the uranium resources restriction scenario, FBR cycle needs to be deployed at the latest in the middle of 21st century from the viewpoint of the restriction of natural uranium resources. This study was carried out in a part of JNC's feasibility study on commercialized FBR cycle system. (author)

  14. European Water Footprint Scenarios for 2050

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Ertug Ercin

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This study develops water footprint scenarios for Europe for 2050, at the country level, based on projections regarding population and economic growth, production and trade patterns, consumption patterns (diets and bioenergy use and technological development. The objective is to estimate possible future changes in the green, blue and grey water footprint (WF of production and consumption, to analyze the main drivers of projected changes and to assess Europe’s future dependence on water resources elsewhere in the world. We develop four scenarios, considering globalization versus regional self-sufficiency, and development driven by economic objectives versus development driven by social and environmental objectives. The study shows that the most critical driver of change affecting Europe’s future WF is the consumption pattern. The WFs of both production and consumption in Western Europe increase under scenarios with high meat consumption and decrease with low-meat scenarios. Besides, additional water demands from increasing biofuel needs will put further pressure on European water resources. The European countries with a large ratio of external to total WF of consumption in 2000 decrease their dependencies on foreign water resources in 2050.

  15. Scenarios of land cover in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, Tian Xiang; Fan, Ze Meng; Liu, Ji Yuan

    2007-02-01

    A method for surface modeling of land cover change (SMLC) is developed on the basis of establishing transition probability matrixes between land cover types and HLZ types. SMLC is used to simulate land cover scenarios of China for the years 2039, 2069 and 2099, for which HLZ scenarios are first simulated in terms of HadCM3 climatic scenarios that are downscaled in zonal model of spatial climate change in China. This paper also analyzes spatial distribution of land cover types, area change and mean center shift of each land cover type, ecotope diversity, and patch connectivity under the land cover scenarios. The results show that cultivated land would decrease and woodland would expand greatly with climatic change, which coincides with consequences expected by implementation of Grain-for-Green policy. Nival area would shrink, and desertification area would expand at a comparatively slow rate in future 100 years. Climate change would generally cause less ecotope diversity and more patch connectivity. Ecosystems in China would have a pattern of beneficial cycle after efficient ecological conservation and restoration. However, if human activities would exceed regulation capacity of ecosystems themselves, the ecosystems in China might deteriorate more seriously.

  16. The Reference Scenarios for the Swiss Emergency Planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanspeter Isaak; Navert, Stephan B.; Ralph Schulz

    2006-01-01

    For the purpose of emergency planning and preparedness, realistic reference scenarios and corresponding accident source terms have been defined on the basis of common plant features. Three types of representative reference scenarios encompass the accident sequences expected to be the most probable. Accident source terms are assumed to be identical for all Swiss nuclear power plants, although the plants differ in reactor type and power. Plant-specific probabilistic safety analyses were used to justify the reference scenarios and the postulated accident source terms. From the full spectrum of release categories available, those categories were selected which would be covered by the releases and time frames assumed in the reference scenarios. For each nuclear power plant, the cumulative frequency of accident sequences not covered by the reference scenarios was determined. It was found that the cumulative frequency for such accident sequences does not exceed about 1 x 10 -6 per year. The Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate concludes that the postulated accident source terms for the reference scenarios are consistent with the current international approach in emergency planning, where one should concentrate on the most probable accident sequences. (N.C.)

  17. Forestry: Prospective Scenarios for Generating Eletricity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henrique Dias Blois

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Forestry generates in all production segments a lot of waste which is a potential power source and an opportunity for electricity generation by the use of this material. Therefore, this study represents the construction of future scenarios for the power generation sector from alternative and renewable sources in the region of Vale do Taquari and Alto da Serra do Botucaraí, in the Northern-Central region of the Stat of Rio Grande do Sul, aiming for the application of waste and by-products from forestry present in a intensive and tendentious way in economic activities within the region. By way of prospective scenarios, one will be able to observe which events are impactful on the viability of an environmental project for recovery of forestry waste to generate electricity in the region. Thereby, we used the method described by Grumbach (2000, a methodology that prospects scenarios from the participation of experts, who collaborated analyzing and proposing events that impact as strengths and weaknesses, opportunities and threats and their interrelationships. Also, it was evident the degree of influence and dependence between the events, which create a matrix of cross impacts. Moreover, possible future scenarios have been constructed and analyzed for demonstrating that the study area has potential events that could serve as alternatives to the sector. However, no ideal scenario has been identified for the next five years, a fact that is due to the large amount of adverse events in six out of the ten final events.

  18. Relay-aided free-space optical communications using α - μ distribution over atmospheric turbulence channels with misalignment errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Upadhya, Abhijeet; Dwivedi, Vivek K.; Singh, G.

    2018-06-01

    In this paper, we have analyzed the performance of dual hop radio frequency (RF)/free-space optical (FSO) fixed gain relay environment confined by atmospheric turbulence induced fading channel over FSO link and modeled using α - μ distribution. The RF hop of the amplify-and-forward scheme undergoes the Rayleigh fading and the proposed system model also considers the pointing error effect on the FSO link. A novel and accurate mathematical expression of the probability density function for a FSO link experiencing α - μ distributed atmospheric turbulence in the presence of pointing error is derived. Further, we have presented analytical expressions of outage probability and bit error rate in terms of Meijer-G function. In addition to this, a useful and mathematically tractable closed-form expression for the end-to-end ergodic capacity of the dual hop scheme in terms of bivariate Fox's H function is derived. The atmospheric turbulence, misalignment errors and various binary modulation schemes for intensity modulation on optical wireless link are considered to yield the results. Finally, we have analyzed each of the three performance metrics for high SNR in order to represent them in terms of elementary functions and the achieved analytical results are supported by computer-based simulations.

  19. Multi-modal Virtual Scenario Enhances Neurofeedback Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Avihay Cohen

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available In the past decade neurofeedback has become the focus of a growing body of research. With real-time fMRI enabling on-line monitoring of emotion related areas such as the amygdala, many have begun testing its therapeutic benefits. However most existing neurofeedback procedures still use monotonic uni-modal interfaces, thus possibly limiting user engagement and weakening learning efficiency. The current study tested a novel multi-sensory neurofeedback animated scenario aimed at enhancing user experience and improving learning. We examined whether relative to a simple uni-modal 2D interface, learning via an interface of complex multi-modal 3D scenario will result in improved neurofeedback learning. As a neural-probe, we used the recently developed fMRI-inspired EEG model of amygdala activity (amygdala-EEG finger print; amygdala-EFP, enabling low-cost and mobile limbic neurofeedback training. Amygdala-EFP was reflected in the animated scenario by the unrest level of a hospital waiting-room in which virtual characters become impatient, approach the admission-desk and complain loudly. Successful down-regulation was reflected as an ease in the room unrest-level. We tested whether relative to a standard uni-modal 2D graphic thermometer interface, this animated scenario could facilitate more effective learning and improve the training experience. Thirty participants underwent two separated neurofeedback sessions (one-week apart practicing down-regulation of the amygdala-EFP signal. In the first session, half trained via the animated scenario and half via a thermometer interface. Learning efficiency was tested by three parameters: (a effect-size of the change in amygdala-EFP following training, (b sustainability of the learned down-regulation in the absence of online feedback, and (c transferability to an unfamiliar context. Comparing amygdala-EFP signal amplitude between the last and the first neurofeedback trials revealed that the animated scenario

  20. DGEMP-OE (2008) Energy Baseline Scenario. Synthesis report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    A 'Business as usual' or 'Baseline' scenario of energy trends to 2020-2030 is produced by France every four years, as requested by the International Energy Agency in order to update the global scenarios published in its World Energy Outlook. Since the most recent scenario of this type was drawn up in 2003-2004, the time has come to renew the effort for the IEA's next in-depth review of French energy policy. Specifically, the DGEMP seeks to predict the future of France's energy situation assuming that no policies or new measures are taken affecting (i.e. improving or deteriorating) the situation other than those already in place or adopted as of 1 January 2008 (in other words, before measures such as those stemming from the Grenelle Environment Forum). On the other hand, it is assumed that change in the energy system is guided by 'conventional wisdom' according to which political options and behaviours by economic units are expected to be 'reasonable'. As a result, even should its projections prove inappropriate, this cannot be considered a 'worst-case' scenario. Indeed, beyond the IEA, this scenario can be used to establish an MEA (Multilateral Environment Agreement) scenario (based on existing measures) for national communications submitted under the U.N. Climate Convention. The scenarios by the 'Energy' Commission, part of the Centre d'Analyse Strategique (CAS), could have been used, particularly since the consultant who worked with the CAS to develop its scenarios was also commissioned by the DGEMP. However, several considerations argued in favour of proceeding separately: - The CAS scenarios drew on the DGEMP's 2004 baseline scenario, even though certain parameters were updated (in particular energy prices). - Moreover, the concept underpinning the DGEMP baseline scenario is that it should to every extent possible remain constant over time to secure continued consensus on this 'reference' at national level. - Finally, the MEDEE energy demand model applied in

  1. Environmental evaluation of plastic waste management scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rigamonti, L.; Grosso, M.; Møller, Jacob

    2014-01-01

    The management of the plastic fraction is one of the most debated issues in the discussion on integrated municipal solid waste systems. Both material and energy recovery can be performed on such a waste stream, and different separate collection schemes can be implemented. The aim of the paper....... The study confirmed the difficulty to clearly identify an optimal strategy for plastic waste management. In fact none of the examined scenarios emerged univocally as the best option for all impact categories. When moving from the P0 treatment strategy to the other scenarios, substantial improvements can...... is to contribute to the debate, based on the analysis of different plastic waste recovery routes. Five scenarios were defined and modelled with a life cycle assessment approach using the EASEWASTE model. In the baseline scenario (P0) the plastic is treated as residual waste and routed partly to incineration...

  2. Using Service Scenarios to Model Business Services

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bækgaard, Lars

    The purpose of the paper is to present and evaluate the notion of service scenarios. A service is work done by a service executor in interaction with a service consumer. A service scenario is a model of a service system and the roles that are played by the actors participating and interacting...... during the execution of a service. The model represents the roles and the interactions between the participants. Service scenarios can be used to model specific services and roles played by human beings and IT systems in the execution of services. The use of service scenarios is demonstrated by means...... of a case study in a public library. The case study indicates that service systems should be understood as socio-technical systems in which service executors and service consumers co-create value in mutual interaction with each other and with a set of shared resources....

  3. From scenarios to domain models: processes and representations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haddock, Gail; Harbison, Karan

    1994-03-01

    The domain specific software architectures (DSSA) community has defined a philosophy for the development of complex systems. This philosophy improves productivity and efficiency by increasing the user's role in the definition of requirements, increasing the systems engineer's role in the reuse of components, and decreasing the software engineer's role to the development of new components and component modifications only. The scenario-based engineering process (SEP), the first instantiation of the DSSA philosophy, has been adopted by the next generation controller project. It is also the chosen methodology of the trauma care information management system project, and the surrogate semi-autonomous vehicle project. SEP uses scenarios from the user to create domain models and define the system's requirements. Domain knowledge is obtained from a variety of sources including experts, documents, and videos. This knowledge is analyzed using three techniques: scenario analysis, task analysis, and object-oriented analysis. Scenario analysis results in formal representations of selected scenarios. Task analysis of the scenario representations results in descriptions of tasks necessary for object-oriented analysis and also subtasks necessary for functional system analysis. Object-oriented analysis of task descriptions produces domain models and system requirements. This paper examines the representations that support the DSSA philosophy, including reference requirements, reference architectures, and domain models. The processes used to create and use the representations are explained through use of the scenario-based engineering process. Selected examples are taken from the next generation controller project.

  4. RESGen: Renewable Energy Scenario Generation Platform

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, Jan Emil Banning; Pinson, Pierre

    2016-01-01

    studies remains. Consequently, our aim here is to propose an open-source platform for space-time probabilistic forecasting of renewable energy generation (wind and solar power). This document covers both methodological and implementation aspects, to be seen as a companion document for the open......-source scenario generation platform. It can generate predictive densities, trajectories and space-time interdependencies for renewable energy generation. The underlying model works as a post-processing of point forecasts. For illustration, two setups are considered: the case of day-ahead forecasts to be issued......Space-time scenarios of renewable power generation are increasingly used as input to decision-making in operational problems. They may also be used in planning studies to account for the inherent uncertainty in operations. Similarly using scenarios to derive chance-constraints or robust...

  5. Combined Estimation of Hydrogeologic Conceptual Model, Parameter, and Scenario Uncertainty with Application to Uranium Transport at the Hanford Site 300 Area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meyer, Philip D.; Ye, Ming; Rockhold, Mark L.; Neuman, Shlomo P.; Cantrell, Kirk J.

    2007-07-30

    This report to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) describes the development and application of a methodology to systematically and quantitatively assess predictive uncertainty in groundwater flow and transport modeling that considers the combined impact of hydrogeologic uncertainties associated with the conceptual-mathematical basis of a model, model parameters, and the scenario to which the model is applied. The methodology is based on a n extension of a Maximum Likelihood implementation of Bayesian Model Averaging. Model uncertainty is represented by postulating a discrete set of alternative conceptual models for a site with associated prior model probabilities that reflect a belief about the relative plausibility of each model based on its apparent consistency with available knowledge and data. Posterior model probabilities are computed and parameter uncertainty is estimated by calibrating each model to observed system behavior; prior parameter estimates are optionally included. Scenario uncertainty is represented as a discrete set of alternative future conditions affecting boundary conditions, source/sink terms, or other aspects of the models, with associated prior scenario probabilities. A joint assessment of uncertainty results from combining model predictions computed under each scenario using as weight the posterior model and prior scenario probabilities. The uncertainty methodology was applied to modeling of groundwater flow and uranium transport at the Hanford Site 300 Area. Eight alternative models representing uncertainty in the hydrogeologic and geochemical properties as well as the temporal variability were considered. Two scenarios represent alternative future behavior of the Columbia River adjacent to the site were considered. The scenario alternatives were implemented in the models through the boundary conditions. Results demonstrate the feasibility of applying a comprehensive uncertainty assessment to large-scale, detailed groundwater flow

  6. Socio-economic Scenarios in Climate Assessments (IC11). Synthesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Drunen, M.; Berkhout, F.

    2011-09-01

    It is widely recognised that projections of social and economic futures are circumscribed by irreducible uncertainties and ignorance. A common analytical response is to develop scenarios that map a range of alternative possible outcomes. The application of scenarios in climate assessments in the Netherlands was investigated in this report, focusing on the use of the socio-economic scenarios 'Welvaart en Leefomgeving' (WLO - The Future of the Dutch Built Environment). This research was carried out within the Climate Changes Spatial Planning (CcSP) programme. WLO scenarios have been applied in climate assessment studies. WLO generates figures and data that are useful. Nevertheless we encountered several CcSP projects that did not apply any socio-economic scenarios, whilst this seemed necessary based on their objectives. In general, climate assessments make little sense if socio-economic developments are not taken into account. Interestingly, some of the studies that did apply socio-economic scenarios, picked only one or two of the scenarios generated by WLO. From a theoretical point of view this selective 'shopping' may lead to a tunnel vision, because it is impossible to estimate which scenario is more probable than the others. At the other hand it is often impractical to explore all four scenarios. The time horizon of WLO was in several cases too short for climate assessments. As it is probable that the structure of society has changed significantly by 2040, it is difficult to quantitatively support the storylines as was done in WLO, because many model assumptions are not correct anymore. Possibly it is better to take a backcasting approach for the second half of the century for the purpose of the CcSP programme. The two case studies described in this report provide examples of good practice that are likely to be useful in future projects that deal with scenarios. In addition, this study produced an interactive website (www.climatescenarios.nl) that provides key

  7. Future Scenarios of the South China Sea Maritime Disputes

    OpenAIRE

    Shee, Poon Kim

    2014-01-01

    The focus of this paper is to analyze three future scenarios in the maritime disputes in the South China Sea. These namely are No War Scenario, Impasse Scenario and Peace Scenario. Ultimately, the way forward towards a viable solution to resolving the South China Sea maritime disputes between China and other claimant states depends on the political wisdom, will and determination of the disputing states. Lofty nationalistic aspirations have to be tempered with a degree of flexibility and pragm...

  8. Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. J. Corbett

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050 scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. These high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories for shipping can be used to evaluate Arctic climate sensitivity to black carbon (a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow, aerosols, and gaseous emissions including carbon dioxide. We quantify ship emissions scenarios which are expected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. A first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase global warming potential due to Arctic ships' CO2 emissions (~42 000 gigagrams by some 17% to 78%. The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.

  9. Scenarios and innovative systems; Scenarii et systemes innovants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2001-11-01

    The purpose of this workshop is to present to the GEDEON community the scenarios for the deployment of innovative nuclear solutions. Both steady state situations and possible transitions from the present to new reactors and fuel cycles are considered. Innovative systems that satisfy improved natural resource utilization and waste minimization criteria will be described as well as the R and D orientations of various partners. This document brings together the transparencies of 17 communications given at this workshop: general policy for transmutation and partitioning; Amster: a molten salt reactor (MSR) concept; MSR capabilities; potentials and capabilities of accelerator driven systems (ADS); ADS demonstrator interest as an experimental facility; innovative systems: gas coolant technologies; Pu management in EPR; scenarios with thorium fuel; scenarios at the equilibrium state; scenarios for transition; partitioning and specific conditioning; management of separated radio-toxic elements; European programs; DOE/AAA (Advanced Accelerator Applications) program; OECD scenario studies; CEA research programs and orientations; partitioning and transmutation: an industrial point of view. (J.S.)

  10. Constellation Architecture Team-Lunar Scenario 12.0 Habitation Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, Kriss J.; Toups, Larry D.; Rudisill, Marianne

    2010-01-01

    This paper will describe an overview of the Constellation Architecture Team Lunar Scenario 12.0 (LS-12) surface habitation approach and concept performed during the study definition. The Lunar Scenario 12 architecture study focused on two primary habitation approaches: a horizontally-oriented habitation module (LS-12.0) and a vertically-oriented habitation module (LS-12.1). This paper will provide an overview of the 12.0 lunar surface campaign, the associated outpost architecture, habitation functionality, concept description, system integration strategy, mass and power resource estimates. The Scenario 12 architecture resulted from combining three previous scenario attributes from Scenario 4 "Optimized Exploration", Scenario 5 "Fission Surface Power System" and Scenario 8 "Initial Extensive Mobility" into Scenario 12 along with an added emphasis on defining the excursion ConOps while the crew is away from the outpost location. This paper will describe an overview of the CxAT-Lunar Scenario 12.0 habitation concepts and their functionality. The Crew Operations area includes basic crew accommodations such as sleeping, eating, hygiene and stowage. The EVA Operations area includes additional EVA capability beyond the suitlock function such as suit maintenance, spares stowage, and suit stowage. The Logistics Operations area includes the enhanced accommodations for 180 days such as enhanced life support systems hardware, consumable stowage, spares stowage, interconnection to the other habitation elements, a common interface mechanism for future growth, and mating to a pressurized rover or Pressurized Logistics Module (PLM). The Mission & Science Operations area includes enhanced outpost autonomy such as an IVA glove box, life support, medical operations, and exercise equipment.

  11. Two-axis Neutron and X-ray Reflectivity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bouwman, W.G.; Vigild, M.E.; Findeisen, E.

    1997-01-01

    Sample alignment for neutron (and in some cases x-ray) reflectometry can be complicated due to a coupling between angle and position which occurs when slits are used to define the path of the beam. Misalignments in sample position or sample rotation angle give rise to systematic errors in the exp...

  12. Measurement of cone beam CT coincidence with megavoltage isocentre and image sharpness using the QUASAR(TM) Penta-Guide phantom

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sykes, J R; Lindsay, R; Dean, C J; Thwaites, D I; Brettle, D S; Magee, D R

    2008-01-01

    For image-guided radiotherapy (IGRT) systems based on cone beam CT (CBCT) integrated into a linear accelerator, the reproducible alignment of imager to x-ray source is critical to the registration of both the x-ray-volumetric image with the megavoltage (MV) beam isocentre and image sharpness. An enhanced method of determining the CBCT to MV isocentre alignment using the QUASAR(TM) Penta-Guide phantom was developed which improved both precision and accuracy. This was benchmarked against our existing method which used software and a ball-bearing (BB) phantom provided by Elekta. Additionally, a method of measuring an image sharpness metric (MTF 50 ) from the edge response function of a spherical air cavity within the Penta-Guide phantom was developed and its sensitivity was tested by simulating misalignments of the kV imager. Reproducibility testing of the enhanced Penta-Guide method demonstrated a systematic error of 50 for five measurements was 0.278 ± 0.004 lp mm -1 with no applied misalignment. Simulated misalignments exhibited a clear peak in the MTF 50 enabling misalignments greater than 0.4 mm to be detected. The Penta-Guide phantom can be used to precisely measure CBCT-MV coincidence and image sharpness on CBCT-IGRT systems

  13. Use of a scenario-development procedure to identify potentially disruptive scenarios, Greater Confinement Disposal facility, Area 5, Nevada Test Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guzowski, R.V.; Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM

    1994-01-01

    The Greater Confinement Disposal (GCD) facility includes four boreholes that contain transuranic (TRLT) waste. Presence of the TRU waste means that this facility must comply with the US Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Radiation Protection Standards for Management and Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel, High-Level and Transuranic Waste-Final Rule 40 CFR Part 191. To comply with the Containment Requirements of this rule, all potentially disruptive events and processes, and by implication all potentially disruptive combinations of events and processes (scenarios), must be identified for possible inclusion in performance assessments. Screening of the FEPs identified four events for scenario development: exploratory drilling for natural resources, drilling withdrawal wells, irrigation, and subsidence. Recent environmental-isotope analyses of the vadose zone suggest that radionuclide transport from the boreholes to the water table by infiltration is not a feasible transport mechanism within the time frame of regulatory concern. For this reason, the event of drilling withdrawal wells was merged with exploratory drilling for resources. The descriptions of the remaining three events were modified slightly to aid in estimation of event probabilities and consequence analyses. The three events are: exploratory drilling for resources penetrates a TRU borehole, irrigation occurs at the Radioactive Waste Management Site (RWMS), and subsidence occurs at the RWMS. Use of a logic diagram with these three events resulted in the construction of eight scenarios, including base-case (undisturbed) conditions. Screening these scenarios at this stage of scenario development was beyond the scope of this task. Based on the implementation assumptions, this scenario-development procedure produced a comprehensive set of mutually exclusive scenarios that are reproducible and auditable for use in GCD performance assessments

  14. Interaction protocols for cooperative merging and lane reduction scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Semsar-Kazerooni, E.; Ploeg, J.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents the interaction protocols developed for execution of two common scenarios in daily traffic using cooperative automated vehicles. The first proposed scenario addresses merging of a (semi-)automated car on a highway within a platoon of (semi-)automated vehicles. The second scenario

  15. SERENITY in e-Business and Smart Item Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benameur, Azzedine; Khoury, Paul El; Seguran, Magali; Sinha, Smriti Kumar

    SERENITY Artefacts, like Class, Patterns, Implementations and Executable Components for Security & Dependability (S&D) in addition to Serenity Runtime Framework (SRF) are discussed in previous chapters. How to integrate these artefacts with applications in Serenity approach is discussed here with two scenarios. The e-Business scenario is a standard loan origination process in a bank. The Smart Item scenario is an Ambient intelligence case study where we take advantage of Smart Items to provide an electronic healthcare infrastructure for remote healthcare assistance. In both cases, we detail how the prototype implementations of the scenarios select proper executable components through Serenity Runtime Framework and then demonstrate how these executable components of the S&D Patterns are deployed.

  16. Scenarios for Benefits Analysis of Energy Research, Development,Demonstration and Deployment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gumerman, Etan; Marnay, Chris

    2005-09-07

    For at least the last decade, evaluation of the benefits of research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RD3) by the U.S. Department of Energy has been conducted using deterministic forecasts that unrealistically presume we can precisely foresee our future 10, 25,or even 50 years hence. This effort tries, in a modest way, to begin a process of recognition that the reality of our energy future is rather one rife with uncertainty. The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is used by the Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EE) and Fossil Energy (FE) for their RD3 benefits evaluation. In order to begin scoping out the uncertainty in these deterministic forecasts, EE and FE designed two futures that differ significantly from the basic NEMS forecast. A High Fuel Price Scenario and a Carbon Cap Scenario were envisioned to forecast alternative futures and the associated benefits. Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) implemented these scenarios into its version of NEMS,NEMS-LBNL, in late 2004, and the Energy Information Agency created six scenarios for FE in early 2005. The creation and implementation of the EE-FE scenarios are explained in this report. Both a Carbon Cap Scenario and a High Fuel Price Scenarios were implemented into the NEMS-LBNL. EIA subsequently modeled similar scenarios using NEMS. While the EIA and LBNL implementations were in some ways rather different, their forecasts do not significantly diverge. Compared to the Reference Scenario, the High Fuel Price Scenario reduces energy consumption by 4 percent in 2025, while in the EIA fuel price scenario (known as Scenario 4) reduction from its corresponding reference scenario (known as Scenario 0) in 2025 is marginal. Nonetheless, the 4 percent demand reduction does not lead to other cascading effects that would significantly differentiate the two scenarios. The LBNL and EIA carbon scenarios were mostly identical. The only major

  17. The Scenario Planning Paradox

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spaniol, Matthew Jon; Rowland, Nicholas James

    2017-01-01

    planning paradox. Contributing fresh theory supposedly attends to the “dismal” state of theory, while contributing new typologies purportedly helps bring order to methodological chaos. Repeated over time, the contribution strategy breaks down. Effort to resolve the theoretical and methodological issue......, foundational theoretical perspective in futures studies. Perceived chaos gives way to typologies, which, as they mount, contribute to the chaos they were meant to resolve. The end result, intended by no one, is that theory remains dismal and methods remain chaotic. This direction for the field is indefensible......For more than a decade, futures studies scholars have prefaced scholarly contributions by repeating the claim that there is insufficient theory to support chaotic scenario methodology. The strategy is formulaic, and the net effect is a curious one, which the authors refer to as the scenario...

  18. ANCRE scenarios for energy transition. Report 2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alazard-Toux, Nathalie; Des Courtils, Nicolas; Hache, Emmanuel; Liegeard, Alban; Lorne, Daphne; Duplan, Jean-Luc; Kalaydjian, Francois; Heintze, Eric; Tilagone, Richard; Henriot, Stephane; Forti, Laurent; Barthelemy, Pascal; Merlen, Elisabeth; Criqui, Patrick; Mathy, Sandrine; Menanteau, Philippe; Devezeaux De Lavergne, Jean-Guy; Avril, Sophie; Cavata, Christian; Le Duigou, Alain; Le Net, Elisabeth; Marcucci-Demeure, Jeanne; Safa, Henri; Topper, Benjamin; Touboul, Francoise; Carre, Franck; Joly, Jean-Pierre; Charbit, Francoise; Mermilliod, Nicole; Mermilliod, Nicole; Le Net, Elisabeth; Teissier, Olivier; Charrue, Herve; Colonna, Paul; Legrand, Jack; Vidal, Olivier; Goffe, Bruno; Mueller, Alex; Flamant, Gilles; Allard, Francis; Most, Jean-Michel; Matarasso, Pierre; Brault, Pascal; Lemoine, Lionel; Achard, Jean-Luc; Uster, Guillaume; Delsey, Jean; Lucchese, Paul; Tadrist, Lounes; Hadjsaid, Nouredine

    2014-01-01

    This report first gives an overview of the energy system by presenting the determining factors of energy demand and of CO 2 emissions per sector (housing and office building, transport, industry, agriculture, forestry and biomass), by analysing energy systems and CO 2 emissions (energy sources, energy vectors, networks and storage, energy and CO 2 assessment for France), and by describing the guidelines of the scenarios proposed by ANCRE. The three main scenarios are characterized by a stronger sobriety, an electricity-based de-carbonation (with a variant based on nuclear and renewable energies), and diversified vectors. They are notably compared to a trend-based reference scenario. Results are discussed in terms of energy consumption (primary and final energy, consumption by the different sectors), of energy production and CO 2 emissions. Scenarios are assessed in terms of economic, environmental and societal, political and strategic criteria. Some consequences for research topics and funding are identified

  19. Methodological review of UK and international low carbon scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hughes, Nick; Strachan, Neil

    2010-01-01

    Scenarios have a long history in business, politics and military planning, as a tool for strategic planning to inform protective, proactive or consensus-based decision making in the face of uncertain futures. Recent years have seen a growth in scenarios for assessing the implications of low carbon futures, but relatively little work has linked these energy scenarios to the broader literature on scenario development. This paper undertakes a methodological review of a selection of UK and international low carbon scenario studies, using a typology of 'trend based', 'technical feasibility' and 'modelling' studies. Dominant methodologies in such studies have been the 2x2 axis and the 'back-casting' approach. Strengths of the studies reviewed include technological detail, and identification of key economic and social constraints. Weaknesses include the over-reliance on constructs such as exogenous emissions constraints, and high level trends, which diminish the ability to understand how the various future scenarios could be brought about or avoided. This is compounded by the lack of depiction of specific system actors; the tendency to abstract policy from the scenarios; and the resulting failure to consider policy, technology and behaviour in an iterative, 'co-evolving' fashion.

  20. Scenario planning for the electricity generation in Indonesia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rachmatullah, C.; Aye, L.; Fuller, R.J.

    2007-01-01

    The long-term planning of a future electricity supply system requires data about future demand. Planners who use the conventional planning method forecast future demand by observing past trends or alternatively by developing scenarios and then selecting the scenarios considered to be the most likely to occur. This method, however, fails to include future uncertainties. To consider such uncertainties, the scenario planning method may be used. This study uses this method to devise a long-term electricity supply plan for the Java-Madura-Bali electricity system. It was found that the scenario planning method could save up to US$3.5 billion over a 15-year period of the method was applied right at the beginning of the period. In the case of the Java-Madura-Bali system, which currently has excess installed capacity, the scenario planning method does not provide such large benefits. It was also found that introducing integrated coal gasification combined cycle and advanced gas combined cycle units would reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the Java-Madura-Bali system by approximately 230 million tonnes or 15% compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario over a 15-year planning timeframe. The abatement cost was found to be US$4 per tonne of CO 2 . (author)

  1. Scenario planning for the electricity generation in Indonesia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rachmatullah, C.; Aye, L.; Fuller, R.J. [The University of Melbourne, Victoria (Australia). Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, International Technologies Centre

    2007-04-15

    The long-term planning of a future electricity supply system requires data about future demand. Planners who use the conventional planning method forecast future demand by observing past trends or alternatively by developing scenarios and then selecting the scenarios considered to be the most likely to occur. This method, however, fails to include future uncertainties. To consider such uncertainties, the scenario planning method may be used. This study uses this method to devise a long-term electricity supply plan for the Java-Madura-Bali electricity system. It was found that the scenario planning method could save up to US$3.5 billion over a 15-year period of the method was applied right at the beginning of the period. In the case of the Java-Madura-Bali system, which currently has excess installed capacity, the scenario planning method does not provide such large benefits. It was also found that introducing integrated coal gasification combined cycle and advanced gas combined cycle units would reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the Java-Madura-Bali system by approximately 230 million tonnes or 15% compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario over a 15-year planning timeframe. The abatement cost was found to be US$4 per tonne of CO{sub 2}. (author)

  2. Future waste treatment and energy systems – examples of joint scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Münster, M.; Finnveden, G.; Wenzel, H.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Approach for use of scenarios dealing with both waste management and energy issues. • Overall scenarios for the common project and sub-scenarios in parts of the project. • Combining different types of scenarios to the tools of different disciplines. • Use of explorative external scenarios based on marginals for consequential LCA. - Abstract: Development and use of scenarios for large interdisciplinary projects is a complicated task. This article provides practical examples of how it has been carried out in two projects addressing waste management and energy issues respectively. Based on experiences from the two projects, recommendations are made for an approach concerning development of scenarios in projects dealing with both waste management and energy issues. Recommendations are given to develop and use overall scenarios for the project and leave room for sub-scenarios in parts of the project. Combining different types of scenarios is recommended, too, in order to adapt to the methods and tools of different disciplines, such as developing predictive scenarios with general equilibrium tools and analysing explorative scenarios with energy system analysis tools. Furthermore, as marginals identified in differing future background systems determine the outcomes of consequential life cycle assessments (LCAs), it is considered advisable to develop and use explorative external scenarios based on possible marginals as a framework for consequential LCAs. This approach is illustrated using an on-going Danish research project

  3. Detailed study of transmutation scenarios involving present day reactor technologies; Etude detaillee des scenarios de transmutation faisant appel aux technologies actuelles pour les reacteurs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2003-07-01

    This document makes a detailed technical evaluation of three families of separation-transmutation scenarios for the management of radioactive wastes. These scenarios are based on 2 parks of reactors which recycle plutonium and minor actinides in an homogeneous way. A first scenario considers the multi-recycling of Pu and Np and the mono-recycling of Am and Cm using both PWRs and FBRs. A second scenario is based on PWRs only, while a third one considers FBRs only. The mixed PWR+FBR scenario requires innovative options and gathers more technical difficulties due to the americium and curium management in a minimum flux of materials. A particular attention has been given to the different steps of the fuel cycle (fuels and targets fabrication, burnup, spent fuel processing, targets management). The feasibility of scenarios of homogeneous actinides recycling in PWRs-only and in FBRs-only has been evaluated according to the results of the first scenario: fluxes of materials, spent fuel reprocessing by advanced separation, impact of the presence of actinides on PWRs and FBRs operation. The efficiency of the different scenarios on the abatement of wastes radio-toxicity is presented in conclusion. (J.S.)

  4. Integration of software for scenario exploration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oyamada, Kiyoshi; Ikeda, Takao

    1999-03-01

    The scenario exploration methodology using shadow models is a variation of the environmental simulation method. Key aspect of the scenario exploration is the use of shadow models which are not corresponding to any specific assumptions on physical processes and, instead, abstract their general features relevant to the effects on nuclide transport in a general manner so that benefit of using simulation approach can be maximized. In developing the shadow models, all the modelling options that have not yet been denied by the experts are kept and parametrized in a very general framework. This, in turn, enables one to treat various types of the uncertainty in performance assessment, i.e., scenario uncertainty, conceptual model uncertainty, mathematical model uncertainty and parameter uncertainty, in a common framework of uncertainty / sensitivity analysis. Objective of the current study is to review / modify the tools which have been developed separately and, thence, not fully consistent from one to the other and to integrate them into a unified methodology and software. Tasks for this are; 1. modification / integration of tools for scenario exploration of nuclide transport in the EBS and the near-field host rock, 2. verification of the software modified and integrated, 3. installation of the software at JNC. (author)

  5. Hybrid Broadband Ground-Motion Simulation Using Scenario Earthquakes for the Istanbul Area

    KAUST Repository

    Reshi, Owais A.

    2016-04-13

    Seismic design, analysis and retrofitting of structures demand an intensive assessment of potential ground motions in seismically active regions. Peak ground motions and frequency content of seismic excitations effectively influence the behavior of structures. In regions of sparse ground motion records, ground-motion simulations provide the synthetic seismic records, which not only provide insight into the mechanisms of earthquakes but also help in improving some aspects of earthquake engineering. Broadband ground-motion simulation methods typically utilize physics-based modeling of source and path effects at low frequencies coupled with high frequency semi-stochastic methods. I apply the hybrid simulation method by Mai et al. (2010) to model several scenario earthquakes in the Marmara Sea, an area of high seismic hazard. Simulated ground motions were generated at 75 stations using systematically calibrated model parameters. The region-specific source, path and site model parameters were calibrated by simulating a w4.1 Marmara Sea earthquake that occurred on November 16, 2015 on the fault segment in the vicinity of Istanbul. The calibrated parameters were then used to simulate the scenario earthquakes with magnitudes w6.0, w6.25, w6.5 and w6.75 over the Marmara Sea fault. Effects of fault geometry, hypocenter location, slip distribution and rupture propagation were thoroughly studied to understand variability in ground motions. A rigorous analysis of waveforms reveal that these parameters are critical for determining the behavior of ground motions especially in the near-field. Comparison of simulated ground motion intensities with ground-motion prediction quations indicates the need of development of the region-specific ground-motion prediction equation for Istanbul area. Peak ground motion maps are presented to illustrate the shaking in the Istanbul area due to the scenario earthquakes. The southern part of Istanbul including Princes Islands show high amplitudes

  6. OBEST: The Object-Based Event Scenario Tree Methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    WYSS, GREGORY D.; DURAN, FELICIA A.

    2001-01-01

    Event tree analysis and Monte Carlo-based discrete event simulation have been used in risk assessment studies for many years. This report details how features of these two methods can be combined with concepts from object-oriented analysis to develop a new risk assessment methodology with some of the best features of each. The resultant Object-Based Event Scenarios Tree (OBEST) methodology enables an analyst to rapidly construct realistic models for scenarios for which an a priori discovery of event ordering is either cumbersome or impossible (especially those that exhibit inconsistent or variable event ordering, which are difficult to represent in an event tree analysis). Each scenario produced by OBEST is automatically associated with a likelihood estimate because probabilistic branching is integral to the object model definition. The OBEST method uses a recursive algorithm to solve the object model and identify all possible scenarios and their associated probabilities. Since scenario likelihoods are developed directly by the solution algorithm, they need not be computed by statistical inference based on Monte Carlo observations (as required by some discrete event simulation methods). Thus, OBEST is not only much more computationally efficient than these simulation methods, but it also discovers scenarios that have extremely low probabilities as a natural analytical result--scenarios that would likely be missed by a Monte Carlo-based method. This report documents the OBEST methodology, the demonstration software that implements it, and provides example OBEST models for several different application domains, including interactions among failing interdependent infrastructure systems, circuit analysis for fire risk evaluation in nuclear power plants, and aviation safety studies

  7. Participatory scenario planning in place-based social-ecological research: insights and experiences from 23 case studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elisa Oteros-Rozas

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Participatory scenario planning (PSP is an increasingly popular tool in place-based environmental research for evaluating alternative futures of social-ecological systems. Although a range of guidelines on PSP methods are available in the scientific and grey literature, there is a need to reflect on existing practices and their appropriate application for different objectives and contexts at the local scale, as well as on their potential perceived outcomes. We contribute to theoretical and empirical frameworks by analyzing how and why researchers assess social-ecological systems using place-based PSP, hence facilitating the appropriate uptake of such scenario tools in the future. We analyzed 23 PSP case studies conducted by the authors in a wide range of social-ecological settings by exploring seven aspects: (1 the context; (2 the original motivations and objectives; (3 the methodological approach; (4 the process; (5 the content of the scenarios; (6 the outputs of the research; and (7 the monitoring and evaluation of the PSP process. This was complemented by a reflection on strengths and weaknesses of using PSP for the place-based social-ecological research. We conclude that the application of PSP, particularly when tailored to shared objectives between local people and researchers, has enriched environmental management and scientific research through building common understanding and fostering learning about future planning of social-ecological systems. However, PSP still requires greater systematic monitoring and evaluation to assess its impact on the promotion of collective action for transitions to sustainability and the adaptation to global environmental change and its challenges.

  8. Automata learning algorithms and processes for providing more complete systems requirements specification by scenario generation, CSP-based syntax-oriented model construction, and R2D2C system requirements transformation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinchey, Michael G. (Inventor); Margaria, Tiziana (Inventor); Rash, James L. (Inventor); Rouff, Christopher A. (Inventor); Steffen, Bernard (Inventor)

    2010-01-01

    Systems, methods and apparatus are provided through which in some embodiments, automata learning algorithms and techniques are implemented to generate a more complete set of scenarios for requirements based programming. More specifically, a CSP-based, syntax-oriented model construction, which requires the support of a theorem prover, is complemented by model extrapolation, via automata learning. This may support the systematic completion of the requirements, the nature of the requirement being partial, which provides focus on the most prominent scenarios. This may generalize requirement skeletons by extrapolation and may indicate by way of automatically generated traces where the requirement specification is too loose and additional information is required.

  9. Energy scenarios for hydrogen production in Mexico

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ortega V, E.; Francois L, J. L.

    2009-10-01

    The hydrogen is a clean and very efficient fuel, its combustion does not produce gases of greenhouse effect, ozone precursors and residual acids. Also the hydrogen produced by friendly energy sources with the environment like nuclear energy could help to solve the global problems that it confronts the energy at present time. Presently work fuel cycles of hydrogen production technologies in Mexico are judged, by means of a structured methodology in the concept of sustainable development in its social, economic and environmental dimensions. The methodology is divided in three scenarios: base, Outlook 2030 and capture of CO 2 . The first scenario makes reference to cycles analysis in a current context for Mexico, the second taking in account the demand projections reported by the IAEA in its report Outlook and the third scenario, capture of CO 2 , the technologies are analyzed supposing a reduction in capture costs of 75%. Each scenario also has four cases (base, social, environmental and economic) by means of which the cycles are analyzed in the dimensions of sustainable development. For scenarios base and capture, results show that combination nuclear energy- reformed of gas it is the best alternative for cases base and economic. For social case, the evaluated better technology is the hydraulics, and for environmental case, the best option is represented by the regenerative thermochemistry cycles. The scenario Outlook 2030 show a favorable tendency of growth of renewable sources, being the aeolian energy the best technology evaluated in the cases base and environmental, the hydraulics technology in the social case and in the economic case the reformed of natural gas that uses nuclear heat. (Author)

  10. User constraints for reliable user-defined smart home scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Le Guilly, Thibaut; Nielsen, Michael Kvist; Pedersen, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    Defining control scenarios in a smart home is a difficult task for end users. In particular, one concern is that user-defined scenarios could lead to unsafe or undesired state of the system. To help them explore scenario specifications, we propose in this paper a system that enables specification...

  11. 2016 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Logan, Jeffrey [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Steinberg, Daniel [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); McCall, James [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Richards, James [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sigrin, Benjamin [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Porro, Gian [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2016-11-01

    The Standard Scenarios and this associated report, which are now in their second year, present an examination of some of the key aspects of the change occurring, or anticipated to occur, in the power sector over the next several decades. The Standard Scenarios consist of 18 power sector scenarios which have been projected using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) long-term capacity expansion model and the dGen rooftop PV diffusion model. The purpose of the Standard Scenarios and this associated report is to provide context, discussion, and data to inform stakeholder decision-making regarding the future direction of U.S. power sector. As an extension to this report, the Standard Scenario outputs are presented in a downloadable format online using the Standard Scenarios' Results Viewer at http://en.openei.org/apps/reeds/. This report reflects high-level conclusions and analysis, whereas the Standard Scenarios' Results Viewer includes the scenario results that can be used for more in-depth analysis.

  12. Scenarios for the milk production chain in Brazil in 2020

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renata Giovinazzo Spers

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Brazilian milk production has grown steadily and in 2004 the country became self-sufficient in dairy production. This article develops possible scenarios for the milk production chain in Brazil for the year 2020 in order to contribute to decisions that must be made by stakeholders. A literature review on foresight and the use of scenarios was conducted, and a scenario writing approach based on Wright and Spers (2006 was adopted, which includes the use of the Delphi method, Michael Porter's Five Competitive Forces model, Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM (WRIGHT, 1991 and quantitative projections. This methodology provided four scenarios, with quantitative and qualitative elements: two exploratory scenarios ("milk, the new agribusiness star" and "a wasted future", a most probable scenario ("continuous but uneven growth" and a desired scenario ("competitive family agriculture". Overall, it is possible to note many market opportunities, as well as niche markets and the strengthening of cooperatives. Future prospects are also favorable to the dairy industry in general, but nearly all scenarios point to a concentration in the industrial sphere.

  13. Shipping container response to three severe railway accident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mok, G.C.; Fischer, L.E.; Murty, S.S.; Witte, M.C.

    1998-01-01

    The probability of damage and the potential resulting hazards are analyzed for a representative rail shipping container for three severe rail accident scenarios. The scenarios are: (1) the rupture of closure bolts and resulting opening of closure lid due to a severe impact, (2) the puncture of container by an impacting rail-car coupler, and (3) the yielding of container due to side impact on a rigid uneven surface. The analysis results indicate that scenario 2 is a physically unreasonable event while the probabilities of a significant loss of containment in scenarios 1 and 3 are extremely small. Before assessing the potential risk for the last two scenarios, the uncertainties in predicting complex phenomena for rare, high- consequence hazards needs to be addressed using a rigorous methodology

  14. Introduction of developing a list of MSO generic scenarios for PHWR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Jae Wan; Park, Jun Hyun; Bae, Hui Soo [STANDARD Testing and Engineering Ing. Ltd, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    Multiple Spurious Operation(MSO) scenarios should contain scenarios threatening Post-fire safe shutdown function by MSO of Safe Shutdown Equipments(SSEs) as well as Non-SSEs. The list of MSO generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G) was developed by industrial survey. Although not all scenarios of the list of MSO generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G) are considered applicable to every reactor type, this list provides an input about MSO identification and treatment process. If NEI 00-01 is applied to other reactor type, analyst should review applicability of the list of generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G) and consider potential MSO scenarios undescribed in the list of MSO generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G). Especially, in PHWR case, there is no list of MSO generic scenarios in Canada or internationally. There are substantial physical variations between NPPs. So some generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G) would need validation. Nevertheless, industrial stakeholder have not did any MSO work until now. In this paper, results of first stage research that develop the list of MSO generic scenarios for pressurized heavy water reactor(PHWR) is introduced. According to the review results, specific review of the list of MSO generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G) is required such as how it applies to PHWR. And criteria was established for review of availability of the list of generic scenarios(NEI 00-01, Appendix G). However there are still many tasks such as potential scenario review, risk model review and expert panel review.

  15. Intensity earthquake scenario (scenario event - a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence) for the city of Sofia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aleksandrova, Irena; Simeonova, Stela; Solakov, Dimcho; Popova, Maria

    2014-05-01

    Among the many kinds of natural and man-made disasters, earthquakes dominate with regard to their social and economical impact on the urban environment. Global seismic risk to earthquakes are increasing steadily as urbanization and development occupy more areas that a prone to effects of strong earthquakes. Additionally, the uncontrolled growth of mega cities in highly seismic areas around the world is often associated with the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, and undertaken with an insufficient knowledge of the regional seismicity peculiarities and seismic hazard. The assessment of seismic hazard and generation of earthquake scenarios is the first link in the prevention chain and the first step in the evaluation of the seismic risk. The earthquake scenarios are intended as a basic input for developing detailed earthquake damage scenarios for the cities and can be used in earthquake-safe town and infrastructure planning. The city of Sofia is the capital of Bulgaria. It is situated in the centre of the Sofia area that is the most populated (the population is of more than 1.2 mil. inhabitants), industrial and cultural region of Bulgaria that faces considerable earthquake risk. The available historical documents prove the occurrence of destructive earthquakes during the 15th-18th centuries in the Sofia zone. In 19th century the city of Sofia has experienced two strong earthquakes: the 1818 earthquake with epicentral intensity I0=8-9 MSK and the 1858 earthquake with I0=9-10 MSK. During the 20th century the strongest event occurred in the vicinity of the city of Sofia is the 1917 earthquake with MS=5.3 (I0=7-8 MSK). Almost a century later (95 years) an earthquake of moment magnitude 5.6 (I0=7-8 MSK) hit the city of Sofia, on May 22nd, 2012. In the present study as a deterministic scenario event is considered a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence that could affect the city with intensity less than or equal to VIII

  16. Effects of napping on sleepiness and sleep-related performance deficits in night-shift workers: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruggiero, Jeanne S; Redeker, Nancy S

    2014-04-01

    Night-shift workers are prone to sleep deprivation, misalignment of circadian rhythms, and subsequent sleepiness and sleep-related performance deficits. The purpose of this narrative systematic review is to critically review and synthesize the scientific literature regarding improvements in sleepiness and sleep-related performance deficits following planned naps taken during work-shift hours by night workers and to recommend directions for future research and practice. We conducted a literature search using the Medline, PsychInfo, CINAHL, Cochrane Library, and Health and Safety Science Abstracts databases and included English-language quasi-experimental and experimental studies that evaluated the effects of a nighttime nap taken during a simulated or actual night-work shift. We identified 13 relevant studies, which consisted primarily of small samples and mixed designs. Most investigators found that, despite short periods of sleep inertia immediately following naps, night-shift napping led to decreased sleepiness and improved sleep-related performance. None of the studies examined the effects of naps on safety outcomes in the workplace. Larger-scale randomized clinical trials of night-shift napping and direct safety outcomes are needed prior to wider implementation.

  17. Valuating Indonesian upstream oil management scenario through system dynamics modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ketut Gunarta, I.; Putri, F. A.

    2018-04-01

    Under the existing regulation in Constitution Number 22 Year 2001 (UU No 22 Tahun 2001), Production Sharing Contract (PSC) continues to be the scenario in conducting oil and gas upstream mining activities as the previous regulation (UU No. 8 Tahun 1971). Because of the high costs and risks in upstream mining activities, the contractors are dominated by foreign companies, meanwhile National Oil Company (NOC) doesn’t act much. The domination of foreign contractor companies also warned Indonesia in several issues addressing to energy independence and energy security. Therefore, to achieve the goals of energy which is independence and security, there need to be a revision in upstream oil activities regulating scenario. The scenarios will be comparing the current scenario, which is PSC, with the “full concession” scenario for National Oil Company (NOC) in managing oil upstream mining activities. Both scenario will be modelled using System Dynamics methodology and assessed furthermore using financial valuation method of income approach. Under the 2 scenarios, the author will compare which scenario is better for upstream oil management in reaching the goals mentioned before and more profitable in financial aspect. From the simulation, it is gathered that concession scenario offers better option than PSC in reaching energy independence and energy security.

  18. Evaluation Framework for Dependable Mobile Learning Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bensassi, Manel; Laroussi, Mona

    2014-01-01

    The goal of the dependability analysis is to predict inconsistencies and to reveal ambiguities and incompleteness in the designed learning scenario. Evaluation, in traditional learning design, is generally planned after the execution of the scenario. In mobile learning, this stage becomes too difficult and expensive to apply due to the complexity…

  19. Adaptive radiotherapy with an average anatomy model: Evaluation and quantification of residual deformations in head and neck cancer patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kranen, Simon van; Mencarelli, Angelo; Beek, Suzanne van; Rasch, Coen; Herk, Marcel van; Sonke, Jan-Jakob

    2013-01-01

    Background and purpose: To develop and validate an adaptive intervention strategy for radiotherapy of head-and-neck cancer that accounts for systematic deformations by modifying the planning-CT (pCT) to the average misalignments in daily cone beam CT (CBCT) measured with deformable registration (DR). Methods and materials: Daily CBCT scans (808 scans) for 25 patients were retrospectively registered to the pCT with B-spline DR. The average deformation vector field ( ) was used to deform the pCT for adaptive intervention. Two strategies were simulated: single intervention after 10 fractions and weekly intervention with an from the previous week. The model was geometrically validated with the residual misalignment of anatomical landmarks both on bony-anatomy (BA; automatically generated) and soft-tissue (ST; manually identified). Results: Systematic deformations were 2.5/3.4 mm vector length (BA/ST). Single intervention reduced deformations to 1.5/2.7 mm (BA/ST). Weekly intervention resulted in 1.0/2.2 mm (BA/ST) and accounted better for progressive changes. 15 patients had average systematic deformations >2 mm (BA): reductions were 1.1/1.9 mm (single/weekly BA). ST improvements were underestimated due to observer and registration variability. Conclusions: Adaptive intervention with a pCT modified to the average anatomy during treatment successfully reduces systematic deformations. The improved accuracy could possibly be exploited in margin reduction and/or dose escalation

  20. A Q-switched Ho:YAG laser with double anti-misalignment corner cubes pumped by a diode-pumped Tm:YLF laser

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Y. P.; Dai, T. Y.; Wu, J.; Ju, Y. L.; Yao, B. Q.

    2018-06-01

    We report the acousto-optically Q-switched Ho:YAG laser with double anti-misalignment corner cubes pumped by a diode-pumped Tm:YLF laser. In the continuous-wave operation of Ho:YAG laser, the maximum s-polarized output power of 3.2 W at 2090.3 nm was obtained under the absorbed pump power of 12.9 W by rotating the fast axis of quarter-wave plate to change the output transmission of laser cavity. The corresponding optical-to-optical conversion efficiency was 24.8% and the slope efficiency was 55.7%. When one of the corner cubes was rotated to 11.8° around vertical direction or 6.7° around horizontal direction, the laser could still operate stably. For the Q-switched operation, the pulse energy of Ho:YAG laser was 9.9 mJ with a pulse width of 53 ns at the repetition rate of 100 Hz, resulting in a peak power of 186.8 kW. The beam quality factor M2 of Ho:YAG laser was 1.3.