WorldWideScience

Sample records for system modelling approach

  1. Model validation: a systemic and systematic approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sheng, G.; Elzas, M.S.; Cronhjort, B.T.

    1993-01-01

    The term 'validation' is used ubiquitously in association with the modelling activities of numerous disciplines including social, political natural, physical sciences, and engineering. There is however, a wide range of definitions which give rise to very different interpretations of what activities the process involves. Analyses of results from the present large international effort in modelling radioactive waste disposal systems illustrate the urgent need to develop a common approach to model validation. Some possible explanations are offered to account for the present state of affairs. The methodology developed treats model validation and code verification in a systematic fashion. In fact, this approach may be regarded as a comprehensive framework to assess the adequacy of any simulation study. (author)

  2. Transport modeling: An artificial immune system approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teodorović Dušan

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes an artificial immune system approach (AIS to modeling time-dependent (dynamic, real time transportation phenomenon characterized by uncertainty. The basic idea behind this research is to develop the Artificial Immune System, which generates a set of antibodies (decisions, control actions that altogether can successfully cover a wide range of potential situations. The proposed artificial immune system develops antibodies (the best control strategies for different antigens (different traffic "scenarios". This task is performed using some of the optimization or heuristics techniques. Then a set of antibodies is combined to create Artificial Immune System. The developed Artificial Immune transportation systems are able to generalize, adapt, and learn based on new knowledge and new information. Applications of the systems are considered for airline yield management, the stochastic vehicle routing, and real-time traffic control at the isolated intersection. The preliminary research results are very promising.

  3. System approach to modeling of industrial technologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toropov, V. S.; Toropov, E. S.

    2018-03-01

    The authors presented a system of methods for modeling and improving industrial technologies. The system consists of information and software. The information part is structured information about industrial technologies. The structure has its template. The template has several essential categories used to improve the technological process and eliminate weaknesses in the process chain. The base category is the physical effect that takes place when the technical process proceeds. The programming part of the system can apply various methods of creative search to the content stored in the information part of the system. These methods pay particular attention to energy transformations in the technological process. The system application will allow us to systematize the approach to improving technologies and obtaining new technical solutions.

  4. A multiscale modeling approach for biomolecular systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bowling, Alan, E-mail: bowling@uta.edu; Haghshenas-Jaryani, Mahdi, E-mail: mahdi.haghshenasjaryani@mavs.uta.edu [The University of Texas at Arlington, Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering (United States)

    2015-04-15

    This paper presents a new multiscale molecular dynamic model for investigating the effects of external interactions, such as contact and impact, during stepping and docking of motor proteins and other biomolecular systems. The model retains the mass properties ensuring that the result satisfies Newton’s second law. This idea is presented using a simple particle model to facilitate discussion of the rigid body model; however, the particle model does provide insights into particle dynamics at the nanoscale. The resulting three-dimensional model predicts a significant decrease in the effect of the random forces associated with Brownian motion. This conclusion runs contrary to the widely accepted notion that the motor protein’s movements are primarily the result of thermal effects. This work focuses on the mechanical aspects of protein locomotion; the effect ATP hydrolysis is estimated as internal forces acting on the mechanical model. In addition, the proposed model can be numerically integrated in a reasonable amount of time. Herein, the differences between the motion predicted by the old and new modeling approaches are compared using a simplified model of myosin V.

  5. System Behavior Models: A Survey of Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-01

    OF FIGURES Spiral Model .................................................................................................3 Figure 1. Approaches in... spiral model was chosen for researching and structuring this thesis, shown in Figure 1. This approach allowed multiple iterations of source material...applications and refining through iteration. 3 Spiral Model Figure 1. D. SCOPE The research is limited to a literature review, limited

  6. A Multi-Model Approach for System Diagnosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niemann, Hans Henrik; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad; Bækgaard, Mikkel Ask Buur

    2007-01-01

    A multi-model approach for system diagnosis is presented in this paper. The relation with fault diagnosis as well as performance validation is considered. The approach is based on testing a number of pre-described models and find which one is the best. It is based on an active approach......,i.e. an auxiliary input to the system is applied. The multi-model approach is applied on a wind turbine system....

  7. Infectious disease modeling a hybrid system approach

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Xinzhi

    2017-01-01

    This volume presents infectious diseases modeled mathematically, taking seasonality and changes in population behavior into account, using a switched and hybrid systems framework. The scope of coverage includes background on mathematical epidemiology, including classical formulations and results; a motivation for seasonal effects and changes in population behavior, an investigation into term-time forced epidemic models with switching parameters, and a detailed account of several different control strategies. The main goal is to study these models theoretically and to establish conditions under which eradication or persistence of the disease is guaranteed. In doing so, the long-term behavior of the models is determined through mathematical techniques from switched systems theory. Numerical simulations are also given to augment and illustrate the theoretical results and to help study the efficacy of the control schemes.

  8. Engineering approach to modeling of piled systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coombs, R.F.; Silva, M.A.G. da

    1980-01-01

    Available methods of analysis of piled systems subjected to dynamic excitation invade areas of mathematics usually beyond the reach of a practising engineer. A simple technique that avoids that conflict is proposed, at least for preliminary studies, and its application, compared with other methods, is shown to be satisfactory. A corrective factor for parameters currently used to represent transmitting boundaries is derived for a finite strip that models an infinite layer. The influence of internal damping on the dynamic stiffness of the layer and on radiation damping is analysed. (Author) [pt

  9. A systemic approach for modeling soil functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogel, Hans-Jörg; Bartke, Stephan; Daedlow, Katrin; Helming, Katharina; Kögel-Knabner, Ingrid; Lang, Birgit; Rabot, Eva; Russell, David; Stößel, Bastian; Weller, Ulrich; Wiesmeier, Martin; Wollschläger, Ute

    2018-03-01

    The central importance of soil for the functioning of terrestrial systems is increasingly recognized. Critically relevant for water quality, climate control, nutrient cycling and biodiversity, soil provides more functions than just the basis for agricultural production. Nowadays, soil is increasingly under pressure as a limited resource for the production of food, energy and raw materials. This has led to an increasing demand for concepts assessing soil functions so that they can be adequately considered in decision-making aimed at sustainable soil management. The various soil science disciplines have progressively developed highly sophisticated methods to explore the multitude of physical, chemical and biological processes in soil. It is not obvious, however, how the steadily improving insight into soil processes may contribute to the evaluation of soil functions. Here, we present to a new systemic modeling framework that allows for a consistent coupling between reductionist yet observable indicators for soil functions with detailed process understanding. It is based on the mechanistic relationships between soil functional attributes, each explained by a network of interacting processes as derived from scientific evidence. The non-linear character of these interactions produces stability and resilience of soil with respect to functional characteristics. We anticipate that this new conceptional framework will integrate the various soil science disciplines and help identify important future research questions at the interface between disciplines. It allows the overwhelming complexity of soil systems to be adequately coped with and paves the way for steadily improving our capability to assess soil functions based on scientific understanding.

  10. A systemic approach to modelling of radiobiological effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Obaturov, G.M.

    1988-01-01

    Basic principles of the systemic approach to modelling of the radiobiological effects at different levels of cell organization have been formulated. The methodology is proposed for theoretical modelling of the effects at these levels

  11. A hybrid agent-based approach for modeling microbiological systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Zaiyi; Sloot, Peter M A; Tay, Joc Cing

    2008-11-21

    Models for systems biology commonly adopt Differential Equations or Agent-Based modeling approaches for simulating the processes as a whole. Models based on differential equations presuppose phenomenological intracellular behavioral mechanisms, while models based on Multi-Agent approach often use directly translated, and quantitatively less precise if-then logical rule constructs. We propose an extendible systems model based on a hybrid agent-based approach where biological cells are modeled as individuals (agents) while molecules are represented by quantities. This hybridization in entity representation entails a combined modeling strategy with agent-based behavioral rules and differential equations, thereby balancing the requirements of extendible model granularity with computational tractability. We demonstrate the efficacy of this approach with models of chemotaxis involving an assay of 10(3) cells and 1.2x10(6) molecules. The model produces cell migration patterns that are comparable to laboratory observations.

  12. Modular Modelling and Simulation Approach - Applied to Refrigeration Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Kresten Kjær; Stoustrup, Jakob

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents an approach to modelling and simulation of the thermal dynamics of a refrigeration system, specifically a reefer container. A modular approach is used and the objective is to increase the speed and flexibility of the developed simulation environment. The refrigeration system...

  13. Systems and context modeling approach to requirements analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahuja, Amrit; Muralikrishna, G.; Patwari, Puneet; Subhrojyoti, C.; Swaminathan, N.; Vin, Harrick

    2014-08-01

    Ensuring completeness and correctness of the requirements for a complex system such as the SKA is challenging. Current system engineering practice includes developing a stakeholder needs definition, a concept of operations, and defining system requirements in terms of use cases and requirements statements. We present a method that enhances this current practice into a collection of system models with mutual consistency relationships. These include stakeholder goals, needs definition and system-of-interest models, together with a context model that participates in the consistency relationships among these models. We illustrate this approach by using it to analyze the SKA system requirements.

  14. Evaluation of Workflow Management Systems - A Meta Model Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Rosemann

    1998-11-01

    Full Text Available The automated enactment of processes through the use of workflow management systems enables the outsourcing of the control flow from application systems. By now a large number of systems, that follow different workflow paradigms, are available. This leads to the problem of selecting the appropriate workflow management system for a given situation. In this paper we outline the benefits of a meta model approach for the evaluation and comparison of different workflow management systems. After a general introduction on the topic of meta modeling the meta models of the workflow management systems WorkParty (Siemens Nixdorf and FlowMark (IBM are compared as an example. These product specific meta models can be generalized to meta reference models, which helps to specify a workflow methodology. Exemplary, an organisational reference meta model is presented, which helps users in specifying their requirements for a workflow management system.

  15. Sensitivity analysis approaches applied to systems biology models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zi, Z

    2011-11-01

    With the rising application of systems biology, sensitivity analysis methods have been widely applied to study the biological systems, including metabolic networks, signalling pathways and genetic circuits. Sensitivity analysis can provide valuable insights about how robust the biological responses are with respect to the changes of biological parameters and which model inputs are the key factors that affect the model outputs. In addition, sensitivity analysis is valuable for guiding experimental analysis, model reduction and parameter estimation. Local and global sensitivity analysis approaches are the two types of sensitivity analysis that are commonly applied in systems biology. Local sensitivity analysis is a classic method that studies the impact of small perturbations on the model outputs. On the other hand, global sensitivity analysis approaches have been applied to understand how the model outputs are affected by large variations of the model input parameters. In this review, the author introduces the basic concepts of sensitivity analysis approaches applied to systems biology models. Moreover, the author discusses the advantages and disadvantages of different sensitivity analysis methods, how to choose a proper sensitivity analysis approach, the available sensitivity analysis tools for systems biology models and the caveats in the interpretation of sensitivity analysis results.

  16. A qualitative evaluation approach for energy system modelling frameworks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wiese, Frauke; Hilpert, Simon; Kaldemeyer, Cord

    2018-01-01

    properties define how useful it is in regard to the existing challenges. For energy system models, evaluation methods exist, but we argue that many decisions upon properties are rather made on the model generator or framework level. Thus, this paper presents a qualitative approach to evaluate frameworks...

  17. A novel approach to modeling and diagnosing the cardiovascular system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keller, P.E.; Kangas, L.J.; Hashem, S.; Kouzes, R.T. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States); Allen, P.A. [Life Link, Richland, WA (United States)

    1995-07-01

    A novel approach to modeling and diagnosing the cardiovascular system is introduced. A model exhibits a subset of the dynamics of the cardiovascular behavior of an individual by using a recurrent artificial neural network. Potentially, a model will be incorporated into a cardiovascular diagnostic system. This approach is unique in that each cardiovascular model is developed from physiological measurements of an individual. Any differences between the modeled variables and the variables of an individual at a given time are used for diagnosis. This approach also exploits sensor fusion to optimize the utilization of biomedical sensors. The advantage of sensor fusion has been demonstrated in applications including control and diagnostics of mechanical and chemical processes.

  18. Understanding complex urban systems multidisciplinary approaches to modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Gurr, Jens; Schmidt, J

    2014-01-01

    Understanding Complex Urban Systems takes as its point of departure the insight that the challenges of global urbanization and the complexity of urban systems cannot be understood – let alone ‘managed’ – by sectoral and disciplinary approaches alone. But while there has recently been significant progress in broadening and refining the methodologies for the quantitative modeling of complex urban systems, in deepening the theoretical understanding of cities as complex systems, or in illuminating the implications for urban planning, there is still a lack of well-founded conceptual thinking on the methodological foundations and the strategies of modeling urban complexity across the disciplines. Bringing together experts from the fields of urban and spatial planning, ecology, urban geography, real estate analysis, organizational cybernetics, stochastic optimization, and literary studies, as well as specialists in various systems approaches and in transdisciplinary methodologies of urban analysis, the volum...

  19. Modeling workforce demand in North Dakota: a System Dynamics approach

    OpenAIRE

    Muminova, Adiba

    2015-01-01

    This study investigates the dynamics behind the workforce demand and attempts to predict the potential effects of future changes in oil prices on workforce demand in North Dakota. The study attempts to join System Dynamics and Input-Output models in order to overcome shortcomings in both of the approaches and gain a more complete understanding of the issue of workforce demand. A system dynamics simulation of workforce demand within different economic sector...

  20. Formal approach to modeling of modern Information Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bálint Molnár

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Most recently, the concept of business documents has started to play double role. On one hand, a business document (word processing text or calculation sheet can be used as specification tool, on the other hand the business document is an immanent constituent of business processes, thereby essential component of business Information Systems. The recent tendency is that the majority of documents and their contents within business Information Systems remain in semi-structured format and a lesser part of documents is transformed into schemas of structured databases. In order to keep the emerging situation in hand, we suggest the creation (1 a theoretical framework for modeling business Information Systems; (2 and a design method for practical application based on the theoretical model that provides the structuring principles. The modeling approach that focuses on documents and their interrelationships with business processes assists in perceiving the activities of modern Information Systems.

  1. A nonlinear complementarity approach for the national energy modeling system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gabriel, S.A.; Kydes, A.S.

    1995-01-01

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a large-scale mathematical model that computes equilibrium fuel prices and quantities in the U.S. energy sector. At present, to generate these equilibrium values, NEMS sequentially solves a collection of linear programs and nonlinear equations. The NEMS solution procedure then incorporates the solutions of these linear programs and nonlinear equations in a nonlinear Gauss-Seidel approach. The authors describe how the current version of NEMS can be formulated as a particular nonlinear complementarity problem (NCP), thereby possibly avoiding current convergence problems. In addition, they show that the NCP format is equally valid for a more general form of NEMS. They also describe several promising approaches for solving the NCP form of NEMS based on recent Newton type methods for general NCPs. These approaches share the feature of needing to solve their direction-finding subproblems only approximately. Hence, they can effectively exploit the sparsity inherent in the NEMS NCP

  2. A Variational Approach to the Modeling of MIMO Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jraifi A

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Motivated by the study of the optimization of the quality of service for multiple input multiple output (MIMO systems in 3G (third generation, we develop a method for modeling MIMO channel . This method, which uses a statistical approach, is based on a variational form of the usual channel equation. The proposed equation is given by with scalar variable . Minimum distance of received vectors is used as the random variable to model MIMO channel. This variable is of crucial importance for the performance of the transmission system as it captures the degree of interference between neighbors vectors. Then, we use this approach to compute numerically the total probability of errors with respect to signal-to-noise ratio (SNR and then predict the numbers of antennas. By fixing SNR variable to a specific value, we extract informations on the optimal numbers of MIMO antennas.

  3. Model-Based Systems Engineering Approach to Managing Mass Margin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Seung H.; Bayer, Todd J.; Cole, Bjorn; Cooke, Brian; Dekens, Frank; Delp, Christopher; Lam, Doris

    2012-01-01

    When designing a flight system from concept through implementation, one of the fundamental systems engineering tasks ismanaging the mass margin and a mass equipment list (MEL) of the flight system. While generating a MEL and computing a mass margin is conceptually a trivial task, maintaining consistent and correct MELs and mass margins can be challenging due to the current practices of maintaining duplicate information in various forms, such as diagrams and tables, and in various media, such as files and emails. We have overcome this challenge through a model-based systems engineering (MBSE) approach within which we allow only a single-source-of-truth. In this paper we describe the modeling patternsused to capture the single-source-of-truth and the views that have been developed for the Europa Habitability Mission (EHM) project, a mission concept study, at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL).

  4. A distributed approach for parameters estimation in System Biology models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mosca, E.; Merelli, I.; Alfieri, R.; Milanesi, L.

    2009-01-01

    Due to the lack of experimental measurements, biological variability and experimental errors, the value of many parameters of the systems biology mathematical models is yet unknown or uncertain. A possible computational solution is the parameter estimation, that is the identification of the parameter values that determine the best model fitting respect to experimental data. We have developed an environment to distribute each run of the parameter estimation algorithm on a different computational resource. The key feature of the implementation is a relational database that allows the user to swap the candidate solutions among the working nodes during the computations. The comparison of the distributed implementation with the parallel one showed that the presented approach enables a faster and better parameter estimation of systems biology models.

  5. Object-Oriented Approach to Modeling Units of Pneumatic Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu. V. Kyurdzhiev

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The article shows the relevance of the approaches to the object-oriented programming when modeling the pneumatic units (PU.Based on the analysis of the calculation schemes of aggregates pneumatic systems two basic objects, namely a cavity flow and a material point were highlighted.Basic interactions of objects are defined. Cavity-cavity interaction: ex-change of matter and energy with the flows of mass. Cavity-point interaction: force interaction, exchange of energy in the form of operation. Point-point in-teraction: force interaction, elastic interaction, inelastic interaction, and inter-vals of displacement.The authors have developed mathematical models of basic objects and interactions. Models and interaction of elements are implemented in the object-oriented programming.Mathematical models of elements of PU design scheme are implemented in derived from the base class. These classes implement the models of flow cavity, piston, diaphragm, short channel, diaphragm to be open by a given law, spring, bellows, elastic collision, inelastic collision, friction, PU stages with a limited movement, etc.A numerical integration of differential equations for the mathematical models of PU design scheme elements is based on the Runge-Kutta method of the fourth order. On request each class performs a tact of integration i.e. calcu-lation of the coefficient method.The paper presents an integration algorithm of the system of differential equations. All objects of the PU design scheme are placed in a unidirectional class list. Iterator loop cycle initiates the integration tact of all the objects in the list. One in four iteration makes a transition to the next step of integration. Calculation process stops when any object shows a shutdowns flag.The proposed approach was tested in the calculation of a number of PU designs. With regard to traditional approaches to modeling, the authors-proposed method features in easy enhancement, code reuse, high reliability

  6. Stability of rotor systems: A complex modelling approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kliem, Wolfhard; Pommer, Christian; Stoustrup, Jakob

    1998-01-01

    The dynamics of a large class of rotor systems can be modelled by a linearized complex matrix differential equation of second order, Mz + (D + iG)(z) over dot + (K + iN)z = 0, where the system matrices M, D, G, K and N are real symmetric. Moreover M and K are assumed to be positive definite and D...... approach applying bounds of appropriate Rayleigh quotients. The rotor systems tested are: a simple Laval rotor, a Laval rotor with additional elasticity and damping in the bearings, and a number of rotor systems with complex symmetric 4 x 4 randomly generated matrices.......The dynamics of a large class of rotor systems can be modelled by a linearized complex matrix differential equation of second order, Mz + (D + iG)(z) over dot + (K + iN)z = 0, where the system matrices M, D, G, K and N are real symmetric. Moreover M and K are assumed to be positive definite and D...

  7. Systems approaches to computational modeling of the oral microbiome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimiter V. Dimitrov

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Current microbiome research has generated tremendous amounts of data providing snapshots of molecular activity in a variety of organisms, environments, and cell types. However, turning this knowledge into whole system level of understanding on pathways and processes has proven to be a challenging task. In this review we highlight the applicability of bioinformatics and visualization techniques to large collections of data in order to better understand the information that contains related diet – oral microbiome – host mucosal transcriptome interactions. In particular we focus on systems biology of Porphyromonas gingivalis in the context of high throughput computational methods tightly integrated with translational systems medicine. Those approaches have applications for both basic research, where we can direct specific laboratory experiments in model organisms and cell cultures, to human disease, where we can validate new mechanisms and biomarkers for prevention and treatment of chronic disorders

  8. A DYNAMICAL SYSTEM APPROACH IN MODELING TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hennie Husniah

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we discuss a mathematical model of two parties technology transfer from a leader to a follower. The model is reconstructed via dynamical system approach from a known standard Raz and Assa model and we found some important conclusion which have not been discussed in the original model. The model assumes that in the absence of technology transfer from a leader to a follower, both the leader and the follower have a capability to grow independently with a known upper limit of the development. We obtain a rich mathematical structure of the steady state solution of the model. We discuss a special situation in which the upper limit of the technological development of the follower is higher than that of the leader, but the leader has started earlier than the follower in implementing the technology. In this case we show a paradox stating that the follower is unable to reach its original upper limit of the technological development could appear whenever the transfer rate is sufficiently high.  We propose a new model to increase realism so that any technological transfer rate could only has a positive effect in accelerating the rate of growth of the follower in reaching its original upper limit of the development.

  9. Modeling drug- and chemical- induced hepatotoxicity with systems biology approaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sudin eBhattacharya

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available We provide an overview of computational systems biology approaches as applied to the study of chemical- and drug-induced toxicity. The concept of ‘toxicity pathways’ is described in the context of the 2007 US National Academies of Science report, Toxicity testing in the 21st Century: A Vision and A Strategy. Pathway mapping and modeling based on network biology concepts are a key component of the vision laid out in this report for a more biologically-based analysis of dose-response behavior and the safety of chemicals and drugs. We focus on toxicity of the liver (hepatotoxicity – a complex phenotypic response with contributions from a number of different cell types and biological processes. We describe three case studies of complementary multi-scale computational modeling approaches to understand perturbation of toxicity pathways in the human liver as a result of exposure to environmental contaminants and specific drugs. One approach involves development of a spatial, multicellular virtual tissue model of the liver lobule that combines molecular circuits in individual hepatocytes with cell-cell interactions and blood-mediated transport of toxicants through hepatic sinusoids, to enable quantitative, mechanistic prediction of hepatic dose-response for activation of the AhR toxicity pathway. Simultaneously, methods are being developing to extract quantitative maps of intracellular signaling and transcriptional regulatory networks perturbed by environmental contaminants, using a combination of gene expression and genome-wide protein-DNA interaction data. A predictive physiological model (DILIsymTM to understand drug-induced liver injury (DILI, the most common adverse event leading to termination of clinical development programs and regulatory actions on drugs, is also described. The model initially focuses on reactive metabolite-induced DILI in response to administration of acetaminophen, and spans multiple biological scales.

  10. Do recommender systems benefit users? a modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeung, Chi Ho

    2016-04-01

    Recommender systems are present in many web applications to guide purchase choices. They increase sales and benefit sellers, but whether they benefit customers by providing relevant products remains less explored. While in many cases the recommended products are relevant to users, in other cases customers may be tempted to purchase the products only because they are recommended. Here we introduce a model to examine the benefit of recommender systems for users, and find that recommendations from the system can be equivalent to random draws if one always follows the recommendations and seldom purchases according to his or her own preference. Nevertheless, with sufficient information about user preferences, recommendations become accurate and an abrupt transition to this accurate regime is observed for some of the studied algorithms. On the other hand, we find that high estimated accuracy indicated by common accuracy metrics is not necessarily equivalent to high real accuracy in matching users with products. This disagreement between estimated and real accuracy serves as an alarm for operators and researchers who evaluate recommender systems merely with accuracy metrics. We tested our model with a real dataset and observed similar behaviors. Finally, a recommendation approach with improved accuracy is suggested. These results imply that recommender systems can benefit users, but the more frequently a user purchases the recommended products, the less relevant the recommended products are in matching user taste.

  11. New Approaches in Reuseable Booster System Life Cycle Cost Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zapata, Edgar

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents the results of a 2012 life cycle cost (LCC) study of hybrid Reusable Booster Systems (RBS) conducted by NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL). The work included the creation of a new cost estimating model and an LCC analysis, building on past work where applicable, but emphasizing the integration of new approaches in life cycle cost estimation. Specifically, the inclusion of industry processes/practices and indirect costs were a new and significant part of the analysis. The focus of LCC estimation has traditionally been from the perspective of technology, design characteristics, and related factors such as reliability. Technology has informed the cost related support to decision makers interested in risk and budget insight. This traditional emphasis on technology occurs even though it is well established that complex aerospace systems costs are mostly about indirect costs, with likely only partial influence in these indirect costs being due to the more visible technology products. Organizational considerations, processes/practices, and indirect costs are traditionally derived ("wrapped") only by relationship to tangible product characteristics. This traditional approach works well as long as it is understood that no significant changes, and by relation no significant improvements, are being pursued in the area of either the government acquisition or industry?s indirect costs. In this sense then, most launch systems cost models ignore most costs. The alternative was implemented in this LCC study, whereby the approach considered technology and process/practices in balance, with as much detail for one as the other. This RBS LCC study has avoided point-designs, for now, instead emphasizing exploring the trade-space of potential technology advances joined with potential process/practice advances. Given the range of decisions, and all their combinations, it was necessary to create a model of the original model

  12. New Approaches in Reusable Booster System Life Cycle Cost Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zapata, Edgar

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents the results of a 2012 life cycle cost (LCC) study of hybrid Reusable Booster Systems (RBS) conducted by NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL). The work included the creation of a new cost estimating model and an LCC analysis, building on past work where applicable, but emphasizing the integration of new approaches in life cycle cost estimation. Specifically, the inclusion of industry processes/practices and indirect costs were a new and significant part of the analysis. The focus of LCC estimation has traditionally been from the perspective of technology, design characteristics, and related factors such as reliability. Technology has informed the cost related support to decision makers interested in risk and budget insight. This traditional emphasis on technology occurs even though it is well established that complex aerospace systems costs are mostly about indirect costs, with likely only partial influence in these indirect costs being due to the more visible technology products. Organizational considerations, processes/practices, and indirect costs are traditionally derived ("wrapped") only by relationship to tangible product characteristics. This traditional approach works well as long as it is understood that no significant changes, and by relation no significant improvements, are being pursued in the area of either the government acquisition or industry?s indirect costs. In this sense then, most launch systems cost models ignore most costs. The alternative was implemented in this LCC study, whereby the approach considered technology and process/practices in balance, with as much detail for one as the other. This RBS LCC study has avoided point-designs, for now, instead emphasizing exploring the trade-space of potential technology advances joined with potential process/practice advances. Given the range of decisions, and all their combinations, it was necessary to create a model of the original model

  13. Numerical Modelling Approaches for Sediment Transport in Sewer Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mark, Ole

    A study of the sediment transport processes in sewers has been carried out. Based on this study a mathematical modelling system has been developed to describe the transport processes of sediments and dissolved matter in sewer systems. The modelling system consists of three sub-models which...... constitute the basic modelling system necessary to give a discription of the most dominant physical transport processes concerning particles and dissolved matter in sewer systems: A surface model. An advection-dispersion model. A sediment transport model....

  14. A review of modeling approaches in activated sludge systems

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    use

    Key words: Mathematical modeling, water, wastewater, wastewater treatment plants, activated sludge systems. INTRODUCTION ... sedimentation processes which take place in the aeration ...... activated sludge waste water treatment systems.

  15. Dynamical system approach to running Λ cosmological models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stachowski, Aleksander; Szydlowski, Marek

    2016-01-01

    We study the dynamics of cosmological models with a time dependent cosmological term. We consider five classes of models; two with the non-covariant parametrization of the cosmological term Λ: Λ(H)CDM cosmologies, Λ(a)CDM cosmologies, and three with the covariant parametrization of Λ: Λ(R)CDM cosmologies, where R(t) is the Ricci scalar, Λ(φ)-cosmologies with diffusion, Λ(X)-cosmologies, where X = (1)/(2)g"α"β∇_α∇_βφ is a kinetic part of the density of the scalar field. We also consider the case of an emergent Λ(a) relation obtained from the behaviour of trajectories in a neighbourhood of an invariant submanifold. In the study of the dynamics we used dynamical system methods for investigating how an evolutionary scenario can depend on the choice of special initial conditions. We show that the methods of dynamical systems allow one to investigate all admissible solutions of a running Λ cosmology for all initial conditions. We interpret Alcaniz and Lima's approach as a scaling cosmology. We formulate the idea of an emergent cosmological term derived directly from an approximation of the exact dynamics. We show that some non-covariant parametrization of the cosmological term like Λ(a), Λ(H) gives rise to the non-physical behaviour of trajectories in the phase space. This behaviour disappears if the term Λ(a) is emergent from the covariant parametrization. (orig.)

  16. A Review of Accident Modelling Approaches for Complex Critical Sociotechnical Systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Qureshi, Zahid H

    2008-01-01

    .... This report provides a review of key traditional accident modelling approaches and their limitations, and describes new system-theoretic approaches to the modelling and analysis of accidents in safety-critical systems...

  17. The Intersystem Model of Psychotherapy: An Integrated Systems Treatment Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weeks, Gerald R.; Cross, Chad L.

    2004-01-01

    This article introduces the intersystem model of psychotherapy and discusses its utility as a truly integrative and comprehensive approach. The foundation of this conceptually complex approach comes from dialectic metatheory; hence, its derivation requires an understanding of both foundational and integrational constructs. The article provides a…

  18. Towards modeling future energy infrastructures - the ELECTRA system engineering approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Uslar, Mathias; Heussen, Kai

    2016-01-01

    of the IEC 62559 use case template as well as needed changes to cope particularly with the aspects of controller conflicts and Greenfield technology modeling. From the original envisioned use of the standards, we show a possible transfer on how to properly deal with a Greenfield approach when modeling....

  19. Using A Model-Based Systems Engineering Approach For Exploration Medical System Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, A.; Mindock, J.; McGuire, K.; Reilly, J.; Cerro, J.; Othon, W.; Rubin, D.; Urbina, M.; Canga, M.

    2017-01-01

    NASA's Human Research Program's Exploration Medical Capabilities (ExMC) element is defining the medical system needs for exploration class missions. ExMC's Systems Engineering (SE) team will play a critical role in successful design and implementation of the medical system into exploration vehicles. The team's mission is to "Define, develop, validate, and manage the technical system design needed to implement exploration medical capabilities for Mars and test the design in a progression of proving grounds." Development of the medical system is being conducted in parallel with exploration mission architecture and vehicle design development. Successful implementation of the medical system in this environment will require a robust systems engineering approach to enable technical communication across communities to create a common mental model of the emergent engineering and medical systems. Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) improves shared understanding of system needs and constraints between stakeholders and offers a common language for analysis. The ExMC SE team is using MBSE techniques to define operational needs, decompose requirements and architecture, and identify medical capabilities needed to support human exploration. Systems Modeling Language (SysML) is the specific language the SE team is utilizing, within an MBSE approach, to model the medical system functional needs, requirements, and architecture. Modeling methods are being developed through the practice of MBSE within the team, and tools are being selected to support meta-data exchange as integration points to other system models are identified. Use of MBSE is supporting the development of relationships across disciplines and NASA Centers to build trust and enable teamwork, enhance visibility of team goals, foster a culture of unbiased learning and serving, and be responsive to customer needs. The MBSE approach to medical system design offers a paradigm shift toward greater integration between

  20. A model-data based systems approach to process intensification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gani, Rafiqul

    . Their developments, however, are largely due to experiment based trial and error approaches and while they do not require validation, they can be time consuming and resource intensive. Also, one may ask, can a truly new intensified unit operation be obtained in this way? An alternative two-stage approach is to apply...... a model-based synthesis method to systematically generate and evaluate alternatives in the first stage and an experiment-model based validation in the second stage. In this way, the search for alternatives is done very quickly, reliably and systematically over a wide range, while resources are preserved...... for focused validation of only the promising candidates in the second-stage. This approach, however, would be limited to intensification based on “known” unit operations, unless the PI process synthesis/design is considered at a lower level of aggregation, namely the phenomena level. That is, the model-based...

  1. System-of-Systems Approach for Integrated Energy Systems Modeling and Simulation: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mittal, Saurabh; Ruth, Mark; Pratt, Annabelle; Lunacek, Monte; Krishnamurthy, Dheepak; Jones, Wesley

    2015-08-21

    Today’s electricity grid is the most complex system ever built—and the future grid is likely to be even more complex because it will incorporate distributed energy resources (DERs) such as wind, solar, and various other sources of generation and energy storage. The complexity is further augmented by the possible evolution to new retail market structures that provide incentives to owners of DERs to support the grid. To understand and test new retail market structures and technologies such as DERs, demand-response equipment, and energy management systems while providing reliable electricity to all customers, an Integrated Energy System Model (IESM) is being developed at NREL. The IESM is composed of a power flow simulator (GridLAB-D), home energy management systems implemented using GAMS/Pyomo, a market layer, and hardware-in-the-loop simulation (testing appliances such as HVAC, dishwasher, etc.). The IESM is a system-of-systems (SoS) simulator wherein the constituent systems are brought together in a virtual testbed. We will describe an SoS approach for developing a distributed simulation environment. We will elaborate on the methodology and the control mechanisms used in the co-simulation illustrated by a case study.

  2. Understanding ecohydrological connectivity in savannas: A system dynamics modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ecohydrological connectivity is a system-level property that results from the linkages in the networks of water transport through ecosystems, by which feedback effects and other emergent system behaviors may be generated. We created a systems dynamic model that represents primary ecohydrological net...

  3. System Dynamics Approach for Critical Infrastructure and Decision Support. A Model for a Potable Water System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasqualini, D.; Witkowski, M.

    2005-12-01

    The Critical Infrastructure Protection / Decision Support System (CIP/DSS) project, supported by the Science and Technology Office, has been developing a risk-informed Decision Support System that provides insights for making critical infrastructure protection decisions. The system considers seventeen different Department of Homeland Security defined Critical Infrastructures (potable water system, telecommunications, public health, economics, etc.) and their primary interdependencies. These infrastructures have been modeling in one model called CIP/DSS Metropolitan Model. The modeling approach used is a system dynamics modeling approach. System dynamics modeling combines control theory and the nonlinear dynamics theory, which is defined by a set of coupled differential equations, which seeks to explain how the structure of a given system determines its behavior. In this poster we present a system dynamics model for one of the seventeen critical infrastructures, a generic metropolitan potable water system (MPWS). Three are the goals: 1) to gain a better understanding of the MPWS infrastructure; 2) to identify improvements that would help protect MPWS; and 3) to understand the consequences, interdependencies, and impacts, when perturbations occur to the system. The model represents raw water sources, the metropolitan water treatment process, storage of treated water, damage and repair to the MPWS, distribution of water, and end user demand, but does not explicitly represent the detailed network topology of an actual MPWS. The MPWS model is dependent upon inputs from the metropolitan population, energy, telecommunication, public health, and transportation models as well as the national water and transportation models. We present modeling results and sensitivity analysis indicating critical choke points, negative and positive feedback loops in the system. A general scenario is also analyzed where the potable water system responds to a generic disruption.

  4. Systems analysis approach to probabilistic modeling of fault trees

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bartholomew, R.J.; Qualls, C.R.

    1985-01-01

    A method of probabilistic modeling of fault tree logic combined with stochastic process theory (Markov modeling) has been developed. Systems are then quantitatively analyzed probabilistically in terms of their failure mechanisms including common cause/common mode effects and time dependent failure and/or repair rate effects that include synergistic and propagational mechanisms. The modeling procedure results in a state vector set of first order, linear, inhomogeneous, differential equations describing the time dependent probabilities of failure described by the fault tree. The solutions of this Failure Mode State Variable (FMSV) model are cumulative probability distribution functions of the system. A method of appropriate synthesis of subsystems to form larger systems is developed and applied to practical nuclear power safety systems

  5. Stock market modeling and forecasting a system adaptation approach

    CERN Document Server

    Zheng, Xiaolian

    2013-01-01

    Stock Market Modeling translates experience in system adaptation gained in an engineering context to the modeling of financial markets with a view to improving the capture and understanding of market dynamics. The modeling process is considered as identifying a dynamic system in which a real stock market is treated as an unknown plant and the identification model proposed is tuned by feedback of the matching error. Like a physical system, a stock market exhibits fast and slow dynamics corresponding to internal (such as company value and profitability) and external forces (such as investor sentiment and commodity prices) respectively. The framework presented here, consisting of an internal model and an adaptive filter, is successful at considering both fast and slow market dynamics. A double selection method is efficacious in identifying input factors influential in market movements, revealing them to be both frequency- and market-dependent.   The authors present work on both developed and developing markets ...

  6. Phenomenological approach to the statistics and dynamics of model systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, M.Y.

    1985-01-01

    This thesis investigates the equilibrium and nonequilibrium properties of some model systems, and consists of two parts. Part 1 deals with phase transitions in frustrated xy models, which can serve as a model for the coupled Josephson junction arrays. The Hubbard-Stratanovich transform is developed to construct the Landau-Ginzburg-Wilson Hamiltonians for uniformly frustrated xy models both on a square lattice and on a triangular lattice, which reflect the formation of various superlattices according to the frustration f. Near the critical point, the system with f equal to 1/4 on a triangular lattice is shown to belong to the same universality class as the fully frustrated system on a square lattice. By decomposing two mode systems into two coupled xy models and by applying the Migdal-Kadanoff approximation, the possibilities of Ising-like or three-state Potts-like transition are shown in addition to the Kosterlitz-Thouless-like ones. Part 2 considers the time evaluation of model systems with retarded interactions. For such systems, a master equation is derived with non-Markovian character. It is shown that in higher dimensions, the interplay between interaction strength and delay can lead to complicated behavior

  7. A fuzzy approach for modelling radionuclide in lake system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Desai, H.K.; Christian, R.A.; Banerjee, J.; Patra, A.K.

    2013-01-01

    Radioactive liquid waste is generated during operation and maintenance of Pressurised Heavy Water Reactors (PHWRs). Generally low level liquid waste is diluted and then discharged into the near by water-body through blowdown water discharge line as per the standard waste management practice. The effluents from nuclear installations are treated adequately and then released in a controlled manner under strict compliance of discharge criteria. An attempt was made to predict the concentration of 3 H released from Kakrapar Atomic Power Station at Ratania Regulator, about 2.5 km away from the discharge point, where human exposure is expected. Scarcity of data and complex geometry of the lake prompted the use of Heuristic approach. Under this condition, Fuzzy rule based approach was adopted to develop a model, which could predict 3 H concentration at Ratania Regulator. Three hundred data were generated for developing the fuzzy rules, in which input parameters were water flow from lake and 3 H concentration at discharge point. The Output was 3 H concentration at Ratania Regulator. These data points were generated by multiple regression analysis of the original data. Again by using same methodology hundred data were generated for the validation of the model, which were compared against the predicted output generated by using Fuzzy Rule based approach. Root Mean Square Error of the model came out to be 1.95, which showed good agreement by Fuzzy model of natural ecosystem. -- Highlights: • Uncommon approach (Fuzzy Rule Base) of modelling radionuclide dispersion in Lake. • Predicts 3 H released from Kakrapar Atomic Power Station at a point of human exposure. • RMSE of fuzzy model is 1.95, which means, it has well imitated natural ecosystem

  8. Approaches to modelling radionuclide transfer in agricultural systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitchell, N. G.

    1995-01-01

    Radiological dose assessment requires information describing the concentration and distribution of radionuclides in the environment. This information can be obtained from monitoring but is also evaluated with the aid of mathematical models. In such models the pathways of radionuclides from the release point to man are described in terms of transfer between compartments. The main pathways to be considered include: deposition to vegetation and soils; transfer from soil-to-plant; uptake and turnover in domestic animals; and, intake by man. The development of mathematical models for simulating transfer via these pathways depends on: an understanding of the system under study, in particular for those processes that are most important in the overall transfer to man; the availability of data to determine the structure and parameters for the model; the computing systems available; the knowledge of the user of the model; and, the application of the model. (author)

  9. A fuzzy approach for modelling radionuclide in lake system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desai, H K; Christian, R A; Banerjee, J; Patra, A K

    2013-10-01

    Radioactive liquid waste is generated during operation and maintenance of Pressurised Heavy Water Reactors (PHWRs). Generally low level liquid waste is diluted and then discharged into the near by water-body through blowdown water discharge line as per the standard waste management practice. The effluents from nuclear installations are treated adequately and then released in a controlled manner under strict compliance of discharge criteria. An attempt was made to predict the concentration of (3)H released from Kakrapar Atomic Power Station at Ratania Regulator, about 2.5 km away from the discharge point, where human exposure is expected. Scarcity of data and complex geometry of the lake prompted the use of Heuristic approach. Under this condition, Fuzzy rule based approach was adopted to develop a model, which could predict (3)H concentration at Ratania Regulator. Three hundred data were generated for developing the fuzzy rules, in which input parameters were water flow from lake and (3)H concentration at discharge point. The Output was (3)H concentration at Ratania Regulator. These data points were generated by multiple regression analysis of the original data. Again by using same methodology hundred data were generated for the validation of the model, which were compared against the predicted output generated by using Fuzzy Rule based approach. Root Mean Square Error of the model came out to be 1.95, which showed good agreement by Fuzzy model of natural ecosystem. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Towards a visual modeling approach to designing microelectromechanical system transducers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dewey, Allen; Srinivasan, Vijay; Icoz, Evrim

    1999-12-01

    In this paper, we address initial design capture and system conceptualization of microelectromechanical system transducers based on visual modeling and design. Visual modeling frames the task of generating hardware description language (analog and digital) component models in a manner similar to the task of generating software programming language applications. A structured topological design strategy is employed, whereby microelectromechanical foundry cell libraries are utilized to facilitate the design process of exploring candidate cells (topologies), varying key aspects of the transduction for each topology, and determining which topology best satisfies design requirements. Coupled-energy microelectromechanical system characterizations at a circuit level of abstraction are presented that are based on branch constitutive relations and an overall system of simultaneous differential and algebraic equations. The resulting design methodology is called visual integrated-microelectromechanical VHDL-AMS interactive design (VHDL-AMS is visual hardware design language for analog and mixed signal).

  11. Model of the Russian Federation Construction Innovation System: An Integrated Participatory Systems Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emiliya Suprun

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available This research integrates systemic and participatory techniques to model the Russian Federation construction innovation system. Understanding this complex construction innovation system and determining the best levers for enhancing it require the dynamic modelling of a number of factors, such as flows of resources and activities, policies, uncertainty and time. To build the foundations for such a dynamic model, the employed study method utilised an integrated stakeholder-based participatory approach coupled with structural analysis (MICMAC—Matrice d'Impacts Croisés Multiplication Appliquée à un Classement Cross-Impact Matrix. This method identified the key factors of the Russian Federation construction innovation system, their causal relationship (i.e., influence/dependence map and, ultimately, a causal loop diagram. The generated model reveals pathways to improving construction innovation in the Russian Federation and underpins the future development of an operationalised system dynamics model.

  12. Multi-level and hybrid modelling approaches for systems biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bardini, R; Politano, G; Benso, A; Di Carlo, S

    2017-01-01

    During the last decades, high-throughput techniques allowed for the extraction of a huge amount of data from biological systems, unveiling more of their underling complexity. Biological systems encompass a wide range of space and time scales, functioning according to flexible hierarchies of mechanisms making an intertwined and dynamic interplay of regulations. This becomes particularly evident in processes such as ontogenesis, where regulative assets change according to process context and timing, making structural phenotype and architectural complexities emerge from a single cell, through local interactions. The information collected from biological systems are naturally organized according to the functional levels composing the system itself. In systems biology, biological information often comes from overlapping but different scientific domains, each one having its own way of representing phenomena under study. That is, the different parts of the system to be modelled may be described with different formalisms. For a model to have improved accuracy and capability for making a good knowledge base, it is good to comprise different system levels, suitably handling the relative formalisms. Models which are both multi-level and hybrid satisfy both these requirements, making a very useful tool in computational systems biology. This paper reviews some of the main contributions in this field.

  13. Modelling and simulation of electrical energy systems through a complex systems approach using agent-based models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kremers, Enrique

    2013-10-01

    Complexity science aims to better understand the processes of both natural and man-made systems which are composed of many interacting entities at different scales. A disaggregated approach is proposed for simulating electricity systems, by using agent-based models coupled to continuous ones. The approach can help in acquiring a better understanding of the operation of the system itself, e.g. on emergent phenomena or scale effects; as well as in the improvement and design of future smart grids.

  14. Understanding Resilient Urban Futures: A Systemic Modelling Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ralph Chapman

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The resilience of cities in response to natural disasters and long-term climate change has emerged as a focus of academic and policy attention. In particular, how to understand the interconnectedness of urban and natural systems is a key issue. This paper introduces an urban model that can be used to evaluate city resilience outcomes under different policy scenarios. The model is the Wellington Integrated Land Use-Transport-Environment Model (WILUTE. It considers the city (i.e., Wellington as a complex system characterized by interactions between a variety of internal urban processes (social, economic and physical and the natural environment. It is focused on exploring the dynamic relations between human activities (the geographic distribution of housing and employment, infrastructure layout, traffic flows and energy consumption, environmental effects (carbon emissions, influences on local natural and ecological systems and potential natural disasters (e.g., inundation due to sea level rise and storm events faced under different policy scenarios. The model gives insights that are potentially useful for policy to enhance the city’s resilience, by modelling outcomes, such as the potential for reduction in transportation energy use, and changes in the vulnerability of the city’s housing stock and transport system to sea level rise.

  15. [Systemic inflammation: theoretical and methodological approaches to description of general pathological process model. Part 3. Backgroung for nonsyndromic approach].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gusev, E Yu; Chereshnev, V A

    2013-01-01

    Theoretical and methodological approaches to description of systemic inflammation as general pathological process are discussed. It is shown, that there is a need of integration of wide range of types of researches to develop a model of systemic inflammation.

  16. Stability of Rotor Systems: A Complex Modelling Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kliem, Wolfhard; Pommer, Christian; Stoustrup, Jakob

    1996-01-01

    A large class of rotor systems can be modelled by a complex matrix differential equation of secondorder. The angular velocity of the rotor plays the role of a parameter. We apply the Lyapunov matrix equation in a complex setting and prove two new stability results which are compared...

  17. MODELING INFORMATION SYSTEM AVAILABILITY BY USING BAYESIAN BELIEF NETWORK APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Semir Ibrahimović

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Modern information systems are expected to be always-on by providing services to end-users, regardless of time and location. This is particularly important for organizations and industries where information systems support real-time operations and mission-critical applications that need to be available on 24  7  365 basis. Examples of such entities include process industries, telecommunications, healthcare, energy, banking, electronic commerce and a variety of cloud services. This article presents a modified Bayesian Belief Network model for predicting information system availability, introduced initially by Franke, U. and Johnson, P. (in article “Availability of enterprise IT systems – an expert based Bayesian model”. Software Quality Journal 20(2, 369-394, 2012 based on a thorough review of several dimensions of the information system availability, we proposed a modified set of determinants. The model is parameterized by using probability elicitation process with the participation of experts from the financial sector of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The model validation was performed using Monte Carlo simulation.

  18. A new approach to modeling linear accelerator systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gillespie, G.H.; Hill, B.W.; Jameson, R.A.

    1994-01-01

    A novel computer code is being developed to generate system level designs of radiofrequency ion accelerators with specific applications to machines of interest to Accelerator Driven Transmutation Technologies (ADTT). The goal of the Accelerator System Model (ASM) code is to create a modeling and analysis tool that is easy to use, automates many of the initial design calculations, supports trade studies used in accessing alternate designs and yet is flexible enough to incorporate new technology concepts as they emerge. Hardware engineering parameters and beam dynamics are to be modeled at comparable levels of fidelity. Existing scaling models of accelerator subsystems were used to produce a prototype of ASM (version 1.0) working within the Shell for Particle Accelerator Related Code (SPARC) graphical user interface. A small user group has been testing and evaluating the prototype for about a year. Several enhancements and improvements are now being developed. The current version of ASM is described and examples of the modeling and analysis capabilities are illustrated. The results of an example study, for an accelerator concept typical of ADTT applications, is presented and sample displays from the computer interface are shown

  19. Active diagnosis of hybrid systems - A model predictive approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tabatabaeipour, Seyed Mojtaba; Ravn, Anders P.; Izadi-Zamanabadi, Roozbeh

    2009-01-01

    A method for active diagnosis of hybrid systems is proposed. The main idea is to predict the future output of both normal and faulty model of the system; then at each time step an optimization problem is solved with the objective of maximizing the difference between the predicted normal and fault...... can be used as a test signal for sanity check at the commissioning or for detection of faults hidden by regulatory actions of the controller. The method is tested on the two tank benchmark example. ©2009 IEEE....

  20. Model-Based approaches to Human-Automation Systems Design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jamieson, Greg A.; Andersson, Jonas; Bisantz, Ann

    2012-01-01

    Human-automation interaction in complex systems is common, yet design for this interaction is often conducted without explicit consideration of the role of the human operator. Fortunately, there are a number of modeling frameworks proposed for supporting this design activity. However...... (and reportedly one or two critics) can engage one another on several agreed questions about such frameworks. The goal is to aid non-aligned practitioners in choosing between alternative frameworks for their human-automation interaction design challenges....

  1. A modular approach to modeling power plant systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yee, N.S.

    1990-01-01

    This paper reports on power plants which are large, non-linear systems with numerous interactions between its component parts. In the analysis of such complex systems, dynamic simulation is recognized as a powerful method of keeping track of the myriad of interactions. A simulation can be used to answer the what if questions that are asked when replacing components, changing operational procedures, or training operators. While there are many applications for the simulation of power plant components and systems, its use is often discouraged because it can be difficult and expensive. Power plant engineering is itself a multi-disciplinary field involving fluid mechanics, heat transfer, thermodynamics, chemical engineering, nuclear engineering, and electrical engineering. Simulation requires, in addition, knowledge in model formulation, computer programming and numerical solution of differential equations

  2. Conceptual and numerical modeling approach of the Guarani Aquifer System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Rodríguez

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In large aquifers, relevant for their considerable size, regional groundwater modeling remains challenging given geologic complexity and data scarcity in space and time. Yet, it may be conjectured that regional scale groundwater flow models can help in understanding the flow system functioning and the relative magnitude of water budget components, which are important for aquifer management. The Guaraní Aquifer System is the largest transboundary aquifer in South America. It contains an enormous volume of water; however, it is not well known, being difficult to assess the impact of exploitation currently used to supply over 25 million inhabitants. This is a sensitive issue because the aquifer is shared by four countries. Moreover, an integrated groundwater model, and therefore a global water balance, were not available. In this work, a transient regional scale model for the entire aquifer based upon five simplified, equally plausible conceptual models represented by different hydraulic conductivity parametrizations is used to analyze the flow system and water balance components. Combining an increasing number of hydraulic conductivity zones and an appropriate set of boundary conditions, the hypothesis of a continuous sedimentary unit yielded errors within the calibration target in a regional sense. The magnitude of the water budget terms resulted very similar for all parametrizations. Recharge and stream/aquifer fluxes were the dominant components representing, on average, 84.2% of total inflows and 61.4% of total outflows, respectively. However, leakage was small compared to stream discharges of main rivers. For instance, the simulated average leakage for the Uruguay River was 8 m3 s−1 while the observed absolute minimum discharge was 382 m3 s−1. Streams located in heavily pumped regions switched from a gaining condition in early years to a losing condition over time. Water is discharged through

  3. Conceptual and numerical modeling approach of the Guarani Aquifer System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez, L.; Vives, L.; Gomez, A.

    2013-01-01

    In large aquifers, relevant for their considerable size, regional groundwater modeling remains challenging given geologic complexity and data scarcity in space and time. Yet, it may be conjectured that regional scale groundwater flow models can help in understanding the flow system functioning and the relative magnitude of water budget components, which are important for aquifer management. The Guaraní Aquifer System is the largest transboundary aquifer in South America. It contains an enormous volume of water; however, it is not well known, being difficult to assess the impact of exploitation currently used to supply over 25 million inhabitants. This is a sensitive issue because the aquifer is shared by four countries. Moreover, an integrated groundwater model, and therefore a global water balance, were not available. In this work, a transient regional scale model for the entire aquifer based upon five simplified, equally plausible conceptual models represented by different hydraulic conductivity parametrizations is used to analyze the flow system and water balance components. Combining an increasing number of hydraulic conductivity zones and an appropriate set of boundary conditions, the hypothesis of a continuous sedimentary unit yielded errors within the calibration target in a regional sense. The magnitude of the water budget terms resulted very similar for all parametrizations. Recharge and stream/aquifer fluxes were the dominant components representing, on average, 84.2% of total inflows and 61.4% of total outflows, respectively. However, leakage was small compared to stream discharges of main rivers. For instance, the simulated average leakage for the Uruguay River was 8 m3 s-1 while the observed absolute minimum discharge was 382 m3 s-1. Streams located in heavily pumped regions switched from a gaining condition in early years to a losing condition over time. Water is discharged through the aquifer boundaries, except at the eastern boundary. On average

  4. Embedded Control System Design A Model Based Approach

    CERN Document Server

    Forrai, Alexandru

    2013-01-01

    Control system design is a challenging task for practicing engineers. It requires knowledge of different engineering fields, a good understanding of technical specifications and good communication skills. The current book introduces the reader into practical control system design, bridging  the gap between theory and practice.  The control design techniques presented in the book are all model based., considering the needs and possibilities of practicing engineers. Classical control design techniques are reviewed and methods are presented how to verify the robustness of the design. It is how the designed control algorithm can be implemented in real-time and tested, fulfilling different safety requirements. Good design practices and the systematic software development process are emphasized in the book according to the generic standard IEC61508. The book is mainly addressed to practicing control and embedded software engineers - working in research and development – as well as graduate students who are face...

  5. Wind Tunnel Management and Resource Optimization: A Systems Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobs, Derya, A.; Aasen, Curtis A.

    2000-01-01

    Time, money, and, personnel are becoming increasingly scarce resources within government agencies due to a reduction in funding and the desire to demonstrate responsible economic efficiency. The ability of an organization to plan and schedule resources effectively can provide the necessary leverage to improve productivity, provide continuous support to all projects, and insure flexibility in a rapidly changing environment. Without adequate internal controls the organization is forced to rely on external support, waste precious resources, and risk an inefficient response to change. Management systems must be developed and applied that strive to maximize the utility of existing resources in order to achieve the goal of "faster, cheaper, better". An area of concern within NASA Langley Research Center was the scheduling, planning, and resource management of the Wind Tunnel Enterprise operations. Nine wind tunnels make up the Enterprise. Prior to this research, these wind tunnel groups did not employ a rigorous or standardized management planning system. In addition, each wind tunnel unit operated from a position of autonomy, with little coordination of clients, resources, or project control. For operating and planning purposes, each wind tunnel operating unit must balance inputs from a variety of sources. Although each unit is managed by individual Facility Operations groups, other stakeholders influence wind tunnel operations. These groups include, for example, the various researchers and clients who use the facility, the Facility System Engineering Division (FSED) tasked with wind tunnel repair and upgrade, the Langley Research Center (LaRC) Fabrication (FAB) group which fabricates repair parts and provides test model upkeep, the NASA and LARC Strategic Plans, and unscheduled use of the facilities by important clients. Expanding these influences horizontally through nine wind tunnel operations and vertically along the NASA management structure greatly increases the

  6. Technical Note: The Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy - a new approach towards Earth System Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Jöckel

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The development of a comprehensive Earth System Model (ESM to study the interactions between chemical, physical, and biological processes, requires coupling of the different domains (land, ocean, atmosphere, .... One strategy is to link existing domain-specific models with a universal coupler, i.e. an independent standalone program organizing the communication between other programs. In many cases, however, a much simpler approach is more feasible. We have developed the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy. It comprises (1 a modular interface structure to connect to a , (2 an extendable set of such for miscellaneous processes, and (3 a coding standard. MESSy is therefore not a coupler in the classical sense, but exchanges data between a and several within one comprehensive executable. The internal complexity of the is controllable in a transparent and user friendly way. This provides remarkable new possibilities to study feedback mechanisms (by two-way coupling. Note that the MESSy and the coupler approach can be combined. For instance, an atmospheric model implemented according to the MESSy standard could easily be coupled to an ocean model by means of an external coupler. The vision is to ultimately form a comprehensive ESM which includes a large set of submodels, and a base model which contains only a central clock and runtime control. This can be reached stepwise, since each process can be included independently. Starting from an existing model, process submodels can be reimplemented according to the MESSy standard. This procedure guarantees the availability of a state-of-the-art model for scientific applications at any time of the development. In principle, MESSy can be implemented into any kind of model, either global or regional. So far, the MESSy concept has been applied to the general circulation model ECHAM5 and a number of process boxmodels.

  7. Roadmap Modeling and Assessment Approach for Defense Technology System of Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui Lu

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Advanced defense technology plays a crucial role in safeguarding national safety and development interests. Aiming to handle the problems of current research and development (R&D management approaches faced with the rocketing complexities of system of systems, the authors propose a novel roadmap modeling and assessment methodology through studying the driving forces of general technology development and analyzing realistic requirements of defense technology management in this article. First, a requirement decomposition framework is designed based on multi-view theories and text-mining tools are used to construct a multi-layer knowledge-flow network model. Second, the contribution rates of requirement elements at different levels are evaluated using a multi-criteria decision-making approach and the node importance is assessed based on the topological structure of multi-layer network. Third, it is utilized to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approaches that illustrative examples of the technology requirements in maritime security strategy investigating and a dual-layer knowledge-flow network consists of patents that belong to the “Coherent Light Generator (CLC” classification from the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO database and the related academic papers from Web of Science. Finally, the contributions, potential applications, and drawbacks of this work are discussed and research outlooks are provided.

  8. A Modelling Approach for Improved Implementation of Information Technology in Manufacturing Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Langer, Gilad; Larsen, Michael Holm; Kirkby, Lars Phillip

    1997-01-01

    The paper presents a modelling approach which is based on the multiple view perspective of Soft Systems Methodology and an encapsulation of these perspectives into an object orientated model. The approach provide a structured procedure for putting theoretical abstractions of a new production conc...

  9. State space model extraction of thermohydraulic systems – Part I: A linear graph approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uren, K.R.; Schoor, G. van

    2013-01-01

    Thermohydraulic simulation codes are increasingly making use of graphical design interfaces. The user can quickly and easily design a thermohydraulic system by placing symbols on the screen resembling system components. These components can then be connected to form a system representation. Such system models may then be used to obtain detailed simulations of the physical system. Usually this kind of simulation models are too complex and not ideal for control system design. Therefore, a need exists for automated techniques to extract lumped parameter models useful for control system design. The goal of this first paper, in a two part series, is to propose a method that utilises a graphical representation of a thermohydraulic system, and a lumped parameter modelling approach, to extract state space models. In this methodology each physical domain of the thermohydraulic system is represented by a linear graph. These linear graphs capture the interaction between all components within and across energy domains – hydraulic, thermal and mechanical. These linear graphs are analysed using a graph-theoretic approach to derive reduced order state space models. These models capture the dominant dynamics of the thermohydraulic system and are ideal for control system design purposes. The proposed state space model extraction method is demonstrated by considering a U-tube system. A non-linear state space model is extracted representing both the hydraulic and thermal domain dynamics of the system. The simulated state space model is compared with a Flownex ® model of the U-tube. Flownex ® is a validated systems thermal-fluid simulation software package. - Highlights: • A state space model extraction methodology based on graph-theoretic concepts. • An energy-based approach to consider multi-domain systems in a common framework. • Allow extraction of transparent (white-box) state space models automatically. • Reduced order models containing only independent state

  10. A System Shock Approach to Modelling Clandestine Network Disruption

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Dipper, Tamlan

    2004-01-01

    .... This model took as its focus the disruption of successful terrorist operations. In doing so it drew upon operational art, group behavioural studies, and psychological research into problem solving...

  11. A Managerial Approach to NASA's Cultural Changes: Open System Model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Aytekin, Yasin; Long, Nicholas

    2007-01-01

    This project describes NASA's culture during two important time periods (1958-1972) and (1996-2004) and explains its relative fit with its system components -- task, people, resources, and structure...

  12. South African energy model: a system dynamics approach

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Musango, JK

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available of electricity, coal, oil, and natural gas in the sector. The model was used to examine a set of policies that the South African government is currently considering, e.g. expansion of nuclear energy production and implementation of more stringent energy...

  13. Designing a Model for Trauma System Management Using Public Health Approach: The Case of Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farzad Panahi

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Trauma is a leading cause of death and disability around the world. Injuries are responsible for about six million deaths annually, of which ninety percent occur in developing countries. In Iran, injuries are the most common cause of death among age groups below fifty. Trauma system development is a systematic and comprehensive approach to injury prevention and treatment whose effectiveness has been proved. The present study aims at designing a trauma system management model as the first step toward trauma system establishment in Iran. In this qualitative research, a conceptual framework was developed based on the public health approach and three well-known trauma system models. We used Benchmarks, Indicators and Scoring (BIS to analyze the current situation of Iran trauma care system. Then the trauma system management was designed using the policy development phase of public health approach The trauma system management model, validated by a panel of experts, describes lead agency, trauma system plan, policy-making councils, and data-based control according to the four main functions of management: leading, planning, organizing and controlling. This model may be implemented in two phases: the exclusive phase, focusing on resource integration and the inclusive phase, which concentrates on system development. The model could facilitate the development of trauma system in Iran through pilot studies as the assurance phase of public health approach. Furthermore, the model can provide a practical framework for trauma system management at the international level.

  14. A novel approach for modelling complex maintenance systems using discrete event simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alrabghi, Abdullah; Tiwari, Ashutosh

    2016-01-01

    Existing approaches for modelling maintenance rely on oversimplified assumptions which prevent them from reflecting the complexity found in industrial systems. In this paper, we propose a novel approach that enables the modelling of non-identical multi-unit systems without restrictive assumptions on the number of units or their maintenance characteristics. Modelling complex interactions between maintenance strategies and their effects on assets in the system is achieved by accessing event queues in Discrete Event Simulation (DES). The approach utilises the wide success DES has achieved in manufacturing by allowing integration with models that are closely related to maintenance such as production and spare parts systems. Additional advantages of using DES include rapid modelling and visual interactive simulation. The proposed approach is demonstrated in a simulation based optimisation study of a published case. The current research is one of the first to optimise maintenance strategies simultaneously with their parameters while considering production dynamics and spare parts management. The findings of this research provide insights for non-conflicting objectives in maintenance systems. In addition, the proposed approach can be used to facilitate the simulation and optimisation of industrial maintenance systems. - Highlights: • This research is one of the first to optimise maintenance strategies simultaneously. • New insights for non-conflicting objectives in maintenance systems. • The approach can be used to optimise industrial maintenance systems.

  15. An integrated chronic disease management model: a diagonal approach to health system strengthening in South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahomed, Ozayr Haroon; Asmall, Shaidah; Freeman, Melvyn

    2014-11-01

    The integrated chronic disease management model provides a systematic framework for creating a fundamental change in the orientation of the health system. This model adopts a diagonal approach to health system strengthening by establishing a service-linked base to training, supervision, and the opportunity to try out, assess, and implement integrated interventions.

  16. A modelling approach for improved implementation of information technology in manufacturing systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Michael Holm; Langer, Gilad; Kirkby, Lars Phillip

    2000-01-01

    concept into practice. The paper demonstrates the use of the approach in a practical case, which involves modelling of the shop floor activities and control system at the aluminium parts production at a Danish manufacturer of state-of-the-art audio-video equipment and telephones.......The paper presents a modelling approach, which is based on the multiple view perspective of Soft Systems Methodology and an encapsulation of these perspectives into an object orientated model. The approach provides a structured procedure for putting theoretical abstractions of a new production...

  17. Designing Business System Model using System Modeling Approach to the Small and Medium Enterprises (SME) of Furniture in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sukendar, Irwan; Fatmawati, Wiwiek; Much Ibnu Subroto, Imam; Arigama, Rizki

    2017-04-01

    This paper studies the design of business system model with System Modeling Approach on small and medium enterprises (SMEs) of furniture. Methods used consists of five phases: phase of identification of business processes actual on SMEs of Furniture, phase of identification of deficiencies and improvement of business processes, phase of design algorithm and flowchart business processes, phase of analysis of the elements of the system, and phase of the design of data flow diagram (DFD), The results of the analysis of the elements of the system are: Products and quantities ordered product consumers and DP paid by consumers identified as elements of system inputs 1,2 and 3. The result of the calculation, payment slips and mail order (SO) are identified as elements of system output 1, 2 and 3. Acceptance of orders, stocks checking of raw materials at the warehouse, calculating raw material requirements, adequacy of raw materials, the price of the contract, and the due date, as well as the submission of the results of calculations to consumers were identified as elements of system components 1, 2, 3, and 4. Admin taking orders, Admin check stocks of raw materials at the warehouse, Admin making calculation, and Admin convey the results of calculations to consumers were identified as an element of interaction system 1, 2, 3, and 4. Consumers were identified as element of environmental systems. Moreover, the boundary between SMEs and consumers were identified as elements of the system boundary.

  18. An Axiomatic Analysis Approach for Large-Scale Disaster-Tolerant Systems Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Theodore W. Manikas

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Disaster tolerance in computing and communications systems refers to the ability to maintain a degree of functionality throughout the occurrence of a disaster. We accomplish the incorporation of disaster tolerance within a system by simulating various threats to the system operation and identifying areas for system redesign. Unfortunately, extremely large systems are not amenable to comprehensive simulation studies due to the large computational complexity requirements. To address this limitation, an axiomatic approach that decomposes a large-scale system into smaller subsystems is developed that allows the subsystems to be independently modeled. This approach is implemented using a data communications network system example. The results indicate that the decomposition approach produces simulation responses that are similar to the full system approach, but with greatly reduced simulation time.

  19. Model-driven design using IEC 61499 a synchronous approach for embedded and automation systems

    CERN Document Server

    Yoong, Li Hsien; Bhatti, Zeeshan E; Kuo, Matthew M Y

    2015-01-01

    This book describes a novel approach for the design of embedded systems and industrial automation systems, using a unified model-driven approach that is applicable in both domains.  The authors illustrate their methodology, using the IEC 61499 standard as the main vehicle for specification, verification, static timing analysis and automated code synthesis.  The well-known synchronous approach is used as the main vehicle for defining an unambiguous semantics that ensures determinism and deadlock freedom. The proposed approach also ensures very efficient implementations either on small-scale embedded devices or on industry-scale programmable automation controllers (PACs). It can be used for both centralized and distributed implementations. Significantly, the proposed approach can be used without the need for any run-time support. This approach, for the first time, blurs the gap between embedded systems and automation systems and can be applied in wide-ranging applications in automotive, robotics, and industri...

  20. A system identification approach for developing and parameterising an agroforestry system model under constrained availability of data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keesman, K.J.; Graves, A.; Werf, van der W.; Burgess, P.J.; Palma, J.; Dupraz, C.; Keulen, van H.

    2011-01-01

    This paper introduces a system identification approach to overcome the problem of insufficient data when developing and parameterising an agroforestry system model. Typically, for these complex systems the number of available data points from actual systems is less than the number of parameters in a

  1. A Residual Approach for Balanced Truncation Model Reduction (BTMR of Compartmental Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William La Cruz

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a residual approach of the square root balanced truncation algorithm for model order reduction of continuous, linear and time-invariante compartmental systems. Specifically, the new approach uses a residual method to approximate the controllability and observability gramians, whose resolution is an essential step of the square root balanced truncation algorithm, that requires a great computational cost. Numerical experiences are included to highlight the efficacy of the proposed approach.

  2. Toward a Model-Based Approach to Flight System Fault Protection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Day, John; Murray, Alex; Meakin, Peter

    2012-01-01

    Fault Protection (FP) is a distinct and separate systems engineering sub-discipline that is concerned with the off-nominal behavior of a system. Flight system fault protection is an important part of the overall flight system systems engineering effort, with its own products and processes. As with other aspects of systems engineering, the FP domain is highly amenable to expression and management in models. However, while there are standards and guidelines for performing FP related analyses, there are not standards or guidelines for formally relating the FP analyses to each other or to the system hardware and software design. As a result, the material generated for these analyses are effectively creating separate models that are only loosely-related to the system being designed. Development of approaches that enable modeling of FP concerns in the same model as the system hardware and software design enables establishment of formal relationships that has great potential for improving the efficiency, correctness, and verification of the implementation of flight system FP. This paper begins with an overview of the FP domain, and then continues with a presentation of a SysML/UML model of the FP domain and the particular analyses that it contains, by way of showing a potential model-based approach to flight system fault protection, and an exposition of the use of the FP models in FSW engineering. The analyses are small examples, inspired by current real-project examples of FP analyses.

  3. An Open Modelling Approach for Availability and Reliability of Systems - OpenMARS

    CERN Document Server

    Penttinen, Jussi-Pekka; Gutleber, Johannes

    2018-01-01

    This document introduces and gives specification for OpenMARS, which is an open modelling approach for availability and reliability of systems. It supports the most common risk assessment and operation modelling techniques. Uniquely OpenMARS allows combining and connecting models defined with different techniques. This ensures that a modeller has a high degree of freedom to accurately describe the modelled system without limitations imposed by an individual technique. Here the OpenMARS model definition is specified with a tool independent tabular format, which supports managing models developed in a collaborative fashion. Origin of our research is in Future Circular Collider (FCC) study, where we developed the unique features of our concept to model the availability and luminosity production of particle colliders. We were motivated to describe our approach in detail as we see potential further applications in performance and energy efficiency analyses of large scientific infrastructures or industrial processe...

  4. On the limitations of standard statistical modeling in biological systems: a full Bayesian approach for biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomez-Ramirez, Jaime; Sanz, Ricardo

    2013-09-01

    One of the most important scientific challenges today is the quantitative and predictive understanding of biological function. Classical mathematical and computational approaches have been enormously successful in modeling inert matter, but they may be inadequate to address inherent features of biological systems. We address the conceptual and methodological obstacles that lie in the inverse problem in biological systems modeling. We introduce a full Bayesian approach (FBA), a theoretical framework to study biological function, in which probability distributions are conditional on biophysical information that physically resides in the biological system that is studied by the scientist. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. A participatory systems approach to modeling social, economic, and ecological components of bioenergy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buchholz, Thomas S.; Volk, Timothy A.; Luzadis, Valerie A.

    2007-01-01

    Availability of and access to useful energy is a crucial factor for maintaining and improving human well-being. Looming scarcities and increasing awareness of environmental, economic, and social impacts of conventional sources of non-renewable energy have focused attention on renewable energy sources, including biomass. The complex interactions of social, economic, and ecological factors among the bioenergy system components of feedstock supply, conversion technology, and energy allocation have been a major obstacle to the broader development of bioenergy systems. For widespread implementation of bioenergy to occur there is a need for an integrated approach to model the social, economic, and ecological interactions associated with bioenergy. Such models can serve as a planning and evaluation tool to help decide when, where, and how bioenergy systems can contribute to development. One approach to integrated modeling is by assessing the sustainability of a bioenergy system. The evolving nature of sustainability can be described by an adaptive systems approach using general systems principles. Discussing these principles reveals that participation of stakeholders in all components of a bioenergy system is a crucial factor for sustainability. Multi-criteria analysis (MCA) is an effective tool to implement this approach. This approach would enable decision-makers to evaluate bioenergy systems for sustainability in a participatory, transparent, timely, and informed manner

  6. Plant Growth Modeling Using L-System Approach and Its Visualization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Atris Suyantohadi

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available The visualizationof plant growth modeling using computer simulation has rarely been conducted with Lindenmayer System (L-System approach. L-System generally has been used as framework for improving and designing realistic modeling on plant growth. It is one kind of tools for representing plant growth based on grammar sintax and mathematic formulation. This research aimed to design modeling and visualizing plant growth structure generated using L-System. The environment on modeling design used three dimension graphic on standart OpenGL format. The visualization on system design has been developed by some of L-System grammar, and the output graphic on three dimension reflected on plant growth as a virtual plant growth system. Using some of samples on grammar L-System rules for describing of the charaterictics of plant growth, the visualization of structure on plant growth has been resulted and demonstrated.

  7. A novel integrated renewable energy system modelling approach, allowing fast FPGA controller prototyping

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Teodorescu, Remus; Ruiz, Alberto Parera; Cirstea, Marcian

    2008-01-01

    The paper describes a new holistic approach to the modeling of integrated renewable energy systems. The method is using the DK5 modeling/design environment from Celoxica and is based on the new Handel-C programming language. The goal of the work carried out was to achieve a combined model...... containing a Xilinx Spartan II FPGA and was successfully experimentally tested. This approach enables the design and fast hardware implementation of efficient controllers for Distributed Energy Resource (DER) hybrid systems....... of a photovoltaic energy system and a wind power system, which would allow an optimized holistic digital control system design, followed by rapid prototyping of the controller into a single Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA). Initially, the system was simulated using Matlab / Simulink, to create a reference...

  8. Model of the Russian Federation Construction Innovation System: An Integrated Participatory Systems Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Emiliya Suprun; Oz Sahin; Rodney A. Stewart; Kriengsak Panuwatwanich

    2016-01-01

    This research integrates systemic and participatory techniques to model the Russian Federation construction innovation system. Understanding this complex construction innovation system and determining the best levers for enhancing it require the dynamic modelling of a number of factors, such as flows of resources and activities, policies, uncertainty and time. To build the foundations for such a dynamic model, the employed study method utilised an integrated stakeholder-based participatory ap...

  9. Unified Approach to Modeling and Simulation of Space Communication Networks and Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barritt, Brian; Bhasin, Kul; Eddy, Wesley; Matthews, Seth

    2010-01-01

    Network simulator software tools are often used to model the behaviors and interactions of applications, protocols, packets, and data links in terrestrial communication networks. Other software tools that model the physics, orbital dynamics, and RF characteristics of space systems have matured to allow for rapid, detailed analysis of space communication links. However, the absence of a unified toolset that integrates the two modeling approaches has encumbered the systems engineers tasked with the design, architecture, and analysis of complex space communication networks and systems. This paper presents the unified approach and describes the motivation, challenges, and our solution - the customization of the network simulator to integrate with astronautical analysis software tools for high-fidelity end-to-end simulation. Keywords space; communication; systems; networking; simulation; modeling; QualNet; STK; integration; space networks

  10. Introducing Systems Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, Martin; Holwell, Sue

    Systems Approaches to Managing Change brings together five systems approaches to managing complex issues, each having a proven track record of over 25 years. The five approaches are: System Dynamics (SD) developed originally in the late 1950s by Jay Forrester Viable Systems Model (VSM) developed originally in the late 1960s by Stafford Beer Strategic Options Development and Analysis (SODA: with cognitive mapping) developed originally in the 1970s by Colin Eden Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) developed originally in the 1970s by Peter Checkland Critical Systems Heuristics (CSH) developed originally in the late 1970s by Werner Ulrich

  11. Model-centric approaches for the development of health information systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuomainen, Mika; Mykkänen, Juha; Luostarinen, Heli; Pöyhölä, Assi; Paakkanen, Esa

    2007-01-01

    Modeling is used increasingly in healthcare to increase shared knowledge, to improve the processes, and to document the requirements of the solutions related to health information systems (HIS). There are numerous modeling approaches which aim to support these aims, but a careful assessment of their strengths, weaknesses and deficiencies is needed. In this paper, we compare three model-centric approaches in the context of HIS development: the Model-Driven Architecture, Business Process Modeling with BPMN and BPEL and the HL7 Development Framework. The comparison reveals that all these approaches are viable candidates for the development of HIS. However, they have distinct strengths and abstraction levels, they require local and project-specific adaptation and offer varying levels of automation. In addition, illustration of the solutions to the end users must be improved.

  12. A complex systems approach to constructing better models for managing financial markets and the economy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmer, J. Doyne; Gallegati, M.; Hommes, C.; Kirman, A.; Ormerod, P.; Cincotti, S.; Sanchez, A.; Helbing, D.

    2012-11-01

    We outline a vision for an ambitious program to understand the economy and financial markets as a complex evolving system of coupled networks of interacting agents. This is a completely different vision from that currently used in most economic models. This view implies new challenges and opportunities for policy and managing economic crises. The dynamics of such models inherently involve sudden and sometimes dramatic changes of state. Further, the tools and approaches we use emphasize the analysis of crises rather than of calm periods. In this they respond directly to the calls of Governors Bernanke and Trichet for new approaches to macroeconomic modelling.

  13. Performance modeling & simulation of complex systems (A systems engineering design & analysis approach)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Laverne

    1995-01-01

    Modeling of the Multi-mission Image Processing System (MIPS) will be described as an example of the use of a modeling tool to design a distributed system that supports multiple application scenarios. This paper examines: (a) modeling tool selection, capabilities, and operation (namely NETWORK 2.5 by CACl), (b) pointers for building or constructing a model and how the MIPS model was developed, (c) the importance of benchmarking or testing the performance of equipment/subsystems being considered for incorporation the design/architecture, (d) the essential step of model validation and/or calibration using the benchmark results, (e) sample simulation results from the MIPS model, and (f) how modeling and simulation analysis affected the MIPS design process by having a supportive and informative impact.

  14. Formal verification of dynamic hybrid systems: a NuSMV-based model checking approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xu Zhi

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Software security is an important and challenging research topic in developing dynamic hybrid embedded software systems. Ensuring the correct behavior of these systems is particularly difficult due to the interactions between the continuous subsystem and the discrete subsystem. Currently available security analysis methods for system risks have been limited, as they rely on manual inspections of the individual subsystems under simplifying assumptions. To improve this situation, a new approach is proposed that is based on the symbolic model checking tool NuSMV. A dual PID system is used as an example system, for which the logical part and the computational part of the system are modeled in a unified manner. Constraints are constructed on the controlled object, and a counter-example path is ultimately generated, indicating that the hybrid system can be analyzed by the model checking tool.

  15. Repetitive Identification of Structural Systems Using a Nonlinear Model Parameter Refinement Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeng-Wen Lin

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a statistical confidence interval based nonlinear model parameter refinement approach for the health monitoring of structural systems subjected to seismic excitations. The developed model refinement approach uses the 95% confidence interval of the estimated structural parameters to determine their statistical significance in a least-squares regression setting. When the parameters' confidence interval covers the zero value, it is statistically sustainable to truncate such parameters. The remaining parameters will repetitively undergo such parameter sifting process for model refinement until all the parameters' statistical significance cannot be further improved. This newly developed model refinement approach is implemented for the series models of multivariable polynomial expansions: the linear, the Taylor series, and the power series model, leading to a more accurate identification as well as a more controllable design for system vibration control. Because the statistical regression based model refinement approach is intrinsically used to process a “batch” of data and obtain an ensemble average estimation such as the structural stiffness, the Kalman filter and one of its extended versions is introduced to the refined power series model for structural health monitoring.

  16. A diagnosis method for physical systems using a multi-modeling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thetiot, R.

    2000-01-01

    In this thesis we propose a method for diagnosis problem solving. This method is based on a multi-modeling approach describing both normal and abnormal behavior of a system. This modeling approach allows to represent a system at different abstraction levels (behavioral, functional and teleological. Fundamental knowledge is described according to a bond-graph representation. We show that bond-graph representation can be exploited in order to generate (completely or partially) the functional models. The different models of the multi-modeling approach allows to define the functional state of a system at different abstraction levels. We exploit this property to exonerate sub-systems for which the expected behavior is observed. The behavioral and functional descriptions of the remaining sub-systems are exploited hierarchically in a two steps process. In a first step, the abnormal behaviors explaining some observations are identified. In a second step, the remaining unexplained observations are used to generate conflict sets and thus the consistency based diagnoses. The modeling method and the diagnosis process have been applied to a Reactor Coolant Pump Sets. This application illustrates the concepts described in this thesis and shows its potentialities. (authors)

  17. Classical Michaelis-Menten and system theory approach to modeling metabolite formation kinetics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popović, Jovan

    2004-01-01

    When single doses of drug are administered and kinetics are linear, techniques, which are based on the compartment approach and the linear system theory approach, in modeling the formation of the metabolite from the parent drug are proposed. Unlike the purpose-specific compartment approach, the methodical, conceptual and computational uniformity in modeling various linear biomedical systems is the dominant characteristic of the linear system approach technology. Saturation of the metabolic reaction results in nonlinear kinetics according to the Michaelis-Menten equation. The two compartment open model with Michaelis-Menten elimination kinetics is theorethicaly basic when single doses of drug are administered. To simulate data or to fit real data using this model, one must resort to numerical integration. A biomathematical model for multiple dosage regimen calculations of nonlinear metabolic systems in steady-state and a working example with phenytoin are presented. High correlation between phenytoin steady-state serum levels calculated from individual Km and Vmax values in the 15 adult epileptic outpatients and the observed levels at the third adjustment of phenytoin daily dose (r=0.961, p<0.01) were found.

  18. Metric-based approach and tool for modeling the I and C system using Markov chains

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Butenko, Valentyna; Kharchenko, Vyacheslav; Odarushchenko, Elena; Butenko, Dmitriy

    2015-01-01

    Markov's chains (MC) are well-know and widely applied in dependability and performability analysis of safety-critical systems, because of the flexible representation of system components dependencies and synchronization. There are few radblocks for greater application of the MC: accounting the additional system components increases the model state-space and complicates analysis; the non-numerically sophisticated user may find it difficult to decide between the variety of numerical methods to determine the most suitable and accurate for their application. Thus obtaining the high accurate and trusted modeling results becomes a nontrivial task. In this paper, we present the metric-based approach for selection of the applicable solution approach, based on the analysis of MCs stiffness, decomposability, sparsity and fragmentedness. Using this selection procedure the modeler can provide the verification of earlier obtained results. The presented approach was implemented in utility MSMC, which supports the MC construction, metric-based analysis, recommendations shaping and model solution. The model can be exported to the wall-known off-the-shelf mathematical packages for verification. The paper presents the case study of the industrial NPP I and C system, manufactured by RPC Radiy. The paper shows an application of metric-based approach and MSMC fool for dependability and safety analysis of RTS, and procedure of results verification. (author)

  19. Modelling individual differences in the form of Pavlovian conditioned approach responses: a dual learning systems approach with factored representations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florian Lesaint

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Reinforcement Learning has greatly influenced models of conditioning, providing powerful explanations of acquired behaviour and underlying physiological observations. However, in recent autoshaping experiments in rats, variation in the form of Pavlovian conditioned responses (CRs and associated dopamine activity, have questioned the classical hypothesis that phasic dopamine activity corresponds to a reward prediction error-like signal arising from a classical Model-Free system, necessary for Pavlovian conditioning. Over the course of Pavlovian conditioning using food as the unconditioned stimulus (US, some rats (sign-trackers come to approach and engage the conditioned stimulus (CS itself - a lever - more and more avidly, whereas other rats (goal-trackers learn to approach the location of food delivery upon CS presentation. Importantly, although both sign-trackers and goal-trackers learn the CS-US association equally well, only in sign-trackers does phasic dopamine activity show classical reward prediction error-like bursts. Furthermore, neither the acquisition nor the expression of a goal-tracking CR is dopamine-dependent. Here we present a computational model that can account for such individual variations. We show that a combination of a Model-Based system and a revised Model-Free system can account for the development of distinct CRs in rats. Moreover, we show that revising a classical Model-Free system to individually process stimuli by using factored representations can explain why classical dopaminergic patterns may be observed for some rats and not for others depending on the CR they develop. In addition, the model can account for other behavioural and pharmacological results obtained using the same, or similar, autoshaping procedures. Finally, the model makes it possible to draw a set of experimental predictions that may be verified in a modified experimental protocol. We suggest that further investigation of factored representations in

  20. Modelling Individual Differences in the Form of Pavlovian Conditioned Approach Responses: A Dual Learning Systems Approach with Factored Representations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lesaint, Florian; Sigaud, Olivier; Flagel, Shelly B.; Robinson, Terry E.; Khamassi, Mehdi

    2014-01-01

    Reinforcement Learning has greatly influenced models of conditioning, providing powerful explanations of acquired behaviour and underlying physiological observations. However, in recent autoshaping experiments in rats, variation in the form of Pavlovian conditioned responses (CRs) and associated dopamine activity, have questioned the classical hypothesis that phasic dopamine activity corresponds to a reward prediction error-like signal arising from a classical Model-Free system, necessary for Pavlovian conditioning. Over the course of Pavlovian conditioning using food as the unconditioned stimulus (US), some rats (sign-trackers) come to approach and engage the conditioned stimulus (CS) itself – a lever – more and more avidly, whereas other rats (goal-trackers) learn to approach the location of food delivery upon CS presentation. Importantly, although both sign-trackers and goal-trackers learn the CS-US association equally well, only in sign-trackers does phasic dopamine activity show classical reward prediction error-like bursts. Furthermore, neither the acquisition nor the expression of a goal-tracking CR is dopamine-dependent. Here we present a computational model that can account for such individual variations. We show that a combination of a Model-Based system and a revised Model-Free system can account for the development of distinct CRs in rats. Moreover, we show that revising a classical Model-Free system to individually process stimuli by using factored representations can explain why classical dopaminergic patterns may be observed for some rats and not for others depending on the CR they develop. In addition, the model can account for other behavioural and pharmacological results obtained using the same, or similar, autoshaping procedures. Finally, the model makes it possible to draw a set of experimental predictions that may be verified in a modified experimental protocol. We suggest that further investigation of factored representations in

  1. Modelling individual differences in the form of Pavlovian conditioned approach responses: a dual learning systems approach with factored representations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lesaint, Florian; Sigaud, Olivier; Flagel, Shelly B; Robinson, Terry E; Khamassi, Mehdi

    2014-02-01

    Reinforcement Learning has greatly influenced models of conditioning, providing powerful explanations of acquired behaviour and underlying physiological observations. However, in recent autoshaping experiments in rats, variation in the form of Pavlovian conditioned responses (CRs) and associated dopamine activity, have questioned the classical hypothesis that phasic dopamine activity corresponds to a reward prediction error-like signal arising from a classical Model-Free system, necessary for Pavlovian conditioning. Over the course of Pavlovian conditioning using food as the unconditioned stimulus (US), some rats (sign-trackers) come to approach and engage the conditioned stimulus (CS) itself - a lever - more and more avidly, whereas other rats (goal-trackers) learn to approach the location of food delivery upon CS presentation. Importantly, although both sign-trackers and goal-trackers learn the CS-US association equally well, only in sign-trackers does phasic dopamine activity show classical reward prediction error-like bursts. Furthermore, neither the acquisition nor the expression of a goal-tracking CR is dopamine-dependent. Here we present a computational model that can account for such individual variations. We show that a combination of a Model-Based system and a revised Model-Free system can account for the development of distinct CRs in rats. Moreover, we show that revising a classical Model-Free system to individually process stimuli by using factored representations can explain why classical dopaminergic patterns may be observed for some rats and not for others depending on the CR they develop. In addition, the model can account for other behavioural and pharmacological results obtained using the same, or similar, autoshaping procedures. Finally, the model makes it possible to draw a set of experimental predictions that may be verified in a modified experimental protocol. We suggest that further investigation of factored representations in computational

  2. Modeling a terminology-based electronic nursing record system: an object-oriented approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Hyeoun-Ae; Cho, InSook; Byeun, NamSoo

    2007-10-01

    The aim of this study was to present our perspectives on healthcare information analysis at a conceptual level and the lessons learned from our experience with the development of a terminology-based enterprise electronic nursing record system - which was one of components in an EMR system at a tertiary teaching hospital in Korea - using an object-oriented system analysis and design concept. To ensure a systematic approach and effective collaboration, the department of nursing constituted a system modeling team comprising a project manager, systems analysts, user representatives, an object-oriented methodology expert, and healthcare informaticists (including the authors). A rational unified process (RUP) and the Unified Modeling Language were used as a development process and for modeling notation, respectively. From the scenario and RUP approach, user requirements were formulated into use case sets and the sequence of activities in the scenario was depicted in an activity diagram. The structure of the system was presented in a class diagram. This approach allowed us to identify clearly the structural and behavioral states and important factors of a terminology-based ENR system (e.g., business concerns and system design concerns) according to the viewpoints of both domain and technical experts.

  3. Analytic Model Predictive Control of Uncertain Nonlinear Systems: A Fuzzy Adaptive Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiuyan Peng

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A fuzzy adaptive analytic model predictive control method is proposed in this paper for a class of uncertain nonlinear systems. Specifically, invoking the standard results from the Moore-Penrose inverse of matrix, the unmatched problem which exists commonly in input and output dimensions of systems is firstly solved. Then, recurring to analytic model predictive control law, combined with fuzzy adaptive approach, the fuzzy adaptive predictive controller synthesis for the underlying systems is developed. To further reduce the impact of fuzzy approximation error on the system and improve the robustness of the system, the robust compensation term is introduced. It is shown that by applying the fuzzy adaptive analytic model predictive controller the rudder roll stabilization system is ultimately uniformly bounded stabilized in the H-infinity sense. Finally, simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  4. Approach to equilibrium in models of a system in contact with a heat bath

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldstein, S.; Lebowitz, J.L.; Ravishankar, K.

    1986-01-01

    We investigate simple model systems in contact with an infinite heat bath. The former consists of a finite number of particles in a bounded region Λ of R/sup d/, d = 1, 2. The heat baths are infinite particle systems which can penetrate Λ and interact with the system via elastic collisions. Outside Λ the particles move freely and have a Gibbs probability measure prior to entering Λ. We show that starting from almost any initial configuration, the system approaches, as t → ∞, the appropriate Gibbs distribution. The combined system plus bath is Bernoulli

  5. A TSK neuro-fuzzy approach for modeling highly dynamic systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Acampora, G.

    2011-01-01

    This paper introduces a new type of TSK-based neuro-fuzzy approach and its application to modeling highly dynamic systems. In details, our proposal performs an adaptive supervised learning on a collection of time series in order to create a so-called Timed Automata Based Fuzzy Controller, i.e. an

  6. Development of an Electronic Portfolio System Success Model: An Information Systems Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balaban, Igor; Mu, Enrique; Divjak, Blazenka

    2013-01-01

    This research has two main goals: to develop an instrument for assessing Electronic Portfolio (ePortfolio) success and to build a corresponding ePortfolio success model using DeLone and McLean's information systems success model as the theoretical framework. For this purpose, we developed an ePortfolio success measurement instrument and structural…

  7. New approaches in agent-based modeling of complex financial systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ting-Ting; Zheng, Bo; Li, Yan; Jiang, Xiong-Fei

    2017-12-01

    Agent-based modeling is a powerful simulation technique to understand the collective behavior and microscopic interaction in complex financial systems. Recently, the concept for determining the key parameters of agent-based models from empirical data instead of setting them artificially was suggested. We first review several agent-based models and the new approaches to determine the key model parameters from historical market data. Based on the agents' behaviors with heterogeneous personal preferences and interactions, these models are successful in explaining the microscopic origination of the temporal and spatial correlations of financial markets. We then present a novel paradigm combining big-data analysis with agent-based modeling. Specifically, from internet query and stock market data, we extract the information driving forces and develop an agent-based model to simulate the dynamic behaviors of complex financial systems.

  8. Modeling Stochastic Complexity in Complex Adaptive Systems: Non-Kolmogorov Probability and the Process Algebra Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulis, William H

    2017-10-01

    Walter Freeman III pioneered the application of nonlinear dynamical systems theories and methodologies in his work on mesoscopic brain dynamics.Sadly, mainstream psychology and psychiatry still cling to linear correlation based data analysis techniques, which threaten to subvert the process of experimentation and theory building. In order to progress, it is necessary to develop tools capable of managing the stochastic complexity of complex biopsychosocial systems, which includes multilevel feedback relationships, nonlinear interactions, chaotic dynamics and adaptability. In addition, however, these systems exhibit intrinsic randomness, non-Gaussian probability distributions, non-stationarity, contextuality, and non-Kolmogorov probabilities, as well as the absence of mean and/or variance and conditional probabilities. These properties and their implications for statistical analysis are discussed. An alternative approach, the Process Algebra approach, is described. It is a generative model, capable of generating non-Kolmogorov probabilities. It has proven useful in addressing fundamental problems in quantum mechanics and in the modeling of developing psychosocial systems.

  9. Tuneable resolution as a systems biology approach for multi-scale, multi-compartment computational models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirschner, Denise E; Hunt, C Anthony; Marino, Simeone; Fallahi-Sichani, Mohammad; Linderman, Jennifer J

    2014-01-01

    The use of multi-scale mathematical and computational models to study complex biological processes is becoming increasingly productive. Multi-scale models span a range of spatial and/or temporal scales and can encompass multi-compartment (e.g., multi-organ) models. Modeling advances are enabling virtual experiments to explore and answer questions that are problematic to address in the wet-lab. Wet-lab experimental technologies now allow scientists to observe, measure, record, and analyze experiments focusing on different system aspects at a variety of biological scales. We need the technical ability to mirror that same flexibility in virtual experiments using multi-scale models. Here we present a new approach, tuneable resolution, which can begin providing that flexibility. Tuneable resolution involves fine- or coarse-graining existing multi-scale models at the user's discretion, allowing adjustment of the level of resolution specific to a question, an experiment, or a scale of interest. Tuneable resolution expands options for revising and validating mechanistic multi-scale models, can extend the longevity of multi-scale models, and may increase computational efficiency. The tuneable resolution approach can be applied to many model types, including differential equation, agent-based, and hybrid models. We demonstrate our tuneable resolution ideas with examples relevant to infectious disease modeling, illustrating key principles at work. © 2014 The Authors. WIREs Systems Biology and Medicine published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  10. A Dynamic Intelligent Decision Approach to Dependency Modeling of Project Tasks in Complex Engineering System Optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tinggui Chen

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Complex engineering system optimization usually involves multiple projects or tasks. On the one hand, dependency modeling among projects or tasks highlights structures in systems and their environments which can help to understand the implications of connectivity on different aspects of system performance and also assist in designing, optimizing, and maintaining complex systems. On the other hand, multiple projects or tasks are either happening at the same time or scheduled into a sequence in order to use common resources. In this paper, we propose a dynamic intelligent decision approach to dependency modeling of project tasks in complex engineering system optimization. The approach takes this decision process as a two-stage decision-making problem. In the first stage, a task clustering approach based on modularization is proposed so as to find out a suitable decomposition scheme for a large-scale project. In the second stage, according to the decomposition result, a discrete artificial bee colony (ABC algorithm inspired by the intelligent foraging behavior of honeybees is developed for the resource constrained multiproject scheduling problem. Finally, a certain case from an engineering design of a chemical processing system is utilized to help to understand the proposed approach.

  11. Designing a Model for Trauma System Management Using Public Health Approach: The Case of Iran

    OpenAIRE

    Farzad Panahi; Bahram Elgoshaei; Mohammad Reza Maleki; Shahram Tofighi; Seyed Abbas Motevalian; Seyed Jamaledin Tabibi; Payam Tarighi; Gholam Reza Masoomi

    2012-01-01

    Trauma is a leading cause of death and disability around the world. Injuries are responsible for about six million deaths annually, of which ninety percent occur in developing countries. In Iran, injuries are the most common cause of death among age groups below fifty. Trauma system development is a systematic and comprehensive approach to injury prevention and treatment whose effectiveness has been proved. The present study aims at designing a trauma system management model as the first step...

  12. A fuzzy-logic-based approach to qualitative safety modelling for marine systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sii, H.S.; Ruxton, Tom; Wang Jin

    2001-01-01

    Safety assessment based on conventional tools (e.g. probability risk assessment (PRA)) may not be well suited for dealing with systems having a high level of uncertainty, particularly in the feasibility and concept design stages of a maritime or offshore system. By contrast, a safety model using fuzzy logic approach employing fuzzy IF-THEN rules can model the qualitative aspects of human knowledge and reasoning processes without employing precise quantitative analyses. A fuzzy-logic-based approach may be more appropriately used to carry out risk analysis in the initial design stages. This provides a tool for working directly with the linguistic terms commonly used in carrying out safety assessment. This research focuses on the development and representation of linguistic variables to model risk levels subjectively. These variables are then quantified using fuzzy sets. In this paper, the development of a safety model using fuzzy logic approach for modelling various design variables for maritime and offshore safety based decision making in the concept design stage is presented. An example is used to illustrate the proposed approach

  13. Modelling Holocene carbon accumulation and methane emissions of boreal wetlands – an Earth system model approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. J. Schuldt

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Since the Last Glacial Maximum, boreal wetlands have accumulated substantial amounts of peat, estimated at 180–621 Pg of carbon. Wetlands have significantly affected the atmospheric greenhouse gas composition in the past and will play a significant role in future changes of atmospheric CO2 and CH4 concentrations. In order to investigate those changes with an Earth system model, biogeochemical processes in boreal wetlands need to be accounted for. Thus, a model of peat accumulation and decay was developed and included in the land surface model JSBACH of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM. Here we present the evaluation of model results from 6000 yr BP to the pre-industrial period. Over this period of time, 240 Pg of peat carbon accumulated in the model in the areas north of 40° N. Simulated peat accumulation rates agree well with those reported for boreal wetlands. The model simulates CH4 emissions of 49.3 Tg CH4 yr−1 for 6000 yr BP and 51.5 Tg CH4 yr−1 for pre-industrial times. This is within the range of estimates in the literature, which range from 32 to 112 Tg CH4 yr−1 for boreal wetlands. The modelled methane emission for the West Siberian Lowlands and Hudson Bay Lowlands agree well with observations. The rising trend of methane emissions over the last 6000 yr is in agreement with measurements of Antarctic and Greenland ice cores.

  14. Approaches for scalable modeling and emulation of cyber systems : LDRD final report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mayo, Jackson R.; Minnich, Ronald G.; Armstrong, Robert C.; Rudish, Don W.

    2009-09-01

    The goal of this research was to combine theoretical and computational approaches to better understand the potential emergent behaviors of large-scale cyber systems, such as networks of {approx} 10{sup 6} computers. The scale and sophistication of modern computer software, hardware, and deployed networked systems have significantly exceeded the computational research community's ability to understand, model, and predict current and future behaviors. This predictive understanding, however, is critical to the development of new approaches for proactively designing new systems or enhancing existing systems with robustness to current and future cyber threats, including distributed malware such as botnets. We have developed preliminary theoretical and modeling capabilities that can ultimately answer questions such as: How would we reboot the Internet if it were taken down? Can we change network protocols to make them more secure without disrupting existing Internet connectivity and traffic flow? We have begun to address these issues by developing new capabilities for understanding and modeling Internet systems at scale. Specifically, we have addressed the need for scalable network simulation by carrying out emulations of a network with {approx} 10{sup 6} virtualized operating system instances on a high-performance computing cluster - a 'virtual Internet'. We have also explored mappings between previously studied emergent behaviors of complex systems and their potential cyber counterparts. Our results provide foundational capabilities for further research toward understanding the effects of complexity in cyber systems, to allow anticipating and thwarting hackers.

  15. Dynamic modeling approaches to characterize the functioning of health systems: A systematic review of the literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Angela Y; Ogbuoji, Osondu; Atun, Rifat; Verguet, Stéphane

    2017-12-01

    Universal Health Coverage (UHC) is one of the targets for the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3. The impetus for UHC has led to an increased demand for time-sensitive tools to enhance our knowledge of how health systems function and to evaluate impact of system interventions. We define the field of "health system modeling" (HSM) as an area of research where dynamic mathematical models can be designed in order to describe, predict, and quantitatively capture the functioning of health systems. HSM can be used to explore the dynamic relationships among different system components, including organizational design, financing and other resources (such as investments in resources and supply chain management systems) - what we call "inputs" - on access, coverage, and quality of care - what we call "outputs", toward improved health system "outcomes", namely increased levels and fairer distributions of population health and financial risk protection. We undertook a systematic review to identify the existing approaches used in HSM. We identified "systems thinking" - a conceptual and qualitative description of the critical interactions within a health system - as an important underlying precursor to HSM, and collated a critical collection of such articles. We then reviewed and categorized articles from two schools of thoughts: "system dynamics" (SD)" and "susceptible-infected-recovered-plus" (SIR+). SD emphasizes the notion of accumulations of stocks in the system, inflows and outflows, and causal feedback structure to predict intended and unintended consequences of policy interventions. The SIR + models link a typical disease transmission model with another that captures certain aspects of the system that impact the outcomes of the main model. These existing methods provide critical insights in informing the design of HSM, and provide a departure point to extend this research agenda. We highlight the opportunity to advance modeling methods to further understand

  16. MODELS AND METHODS OF SAFETY-ORIENTED PROJECT MANAGEMENT OF DEVELOPMENT OF COMPLEX SYSTEMS: METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Олег Богданович ЗАЧКО

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The methods and models of safety-oriented project management of the development of complex systems are proposed resulting from the convergence of existing approaches in project management in contrast to the mechanism of value-oriented management. A cognitive model of safety oriented project management of the development of complex systems is developed, which provides a synergistic effect that is to move the system from the original (pre condition in an optimal one from the viewpoint of life safety - post-project state. The approach of assessment the project complexity is proposed, which consists in taking into account the seasonal component of a time characteristic of life cycles of complex organizational and technical systems with occupancy. This enabled to take into account the seasonal component in simulation models of life cycle of the product operation in complex organizational and technical system, modeling the critical points of operation of systems with occupancy, which forms a new methodology for safety-oriented management of projects, programs and portfolios of projects with the formalization of the elements of complexity.

  17. An engineering approach to modelling, decision support and control for sustainable systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Day, W; Audsley, E; Frost, A R

    2008-02-12

    Engineering research and development contributes to the advance of sustainable agriculture both through innovative methods to manage and control processes, and through quantitative understanding of the operation of practical agricultural systems using decision models. This paper describes how an engineering approach, drawing on mathematical models of systems and processes, contributes new methods that support decision making at all levels from strategy and planning to tactics and real-time control. The ability to describe the system or process by a simple and robust mathematical model is critical, and the outputs range from guidance to policy makers on strategic decisions relating to land use, through intelligent decision support to farmers and on to real-time engineering control of specific processes. Precision in decision making leads to decreased use of inputs, less environmental emissions and enhanced profitability-all essential to sustainable systems.

  18. Methodologic model to scheduling on service systems: a software engineering approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduyn Ramiro Lopez-Santana

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an approach of software engineering to a research proposal to make an Expert System to scheduling on service systems using methodologies and processes of software development. We use the adaptive software development as methodology for the software architecture based on the description as a software metaprocess that characterizes the research process. We make UML’s diagrams (Unified Modeling Language to provide a visual modeling that describes the research methodology in order to identify the actors, elements and interactions in the research process.

  19. A Model-Driven Approach for Hybrid Power Estimation in Embedded Systems Design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ben Atitallah Rabie

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract As technology scales for increased circuit density and performance, the management of power consumption in system-on-chip (SoC is becoming critical. Today, having the appropriate electronic system level (ESL tools for power estimation in the design flow is mandatory. The main challenge for the design of such dedicated tools is to achieve a better tradeoff between accuracy and speed. This paper presents a consumption estimation approach allowing taking the consumption criterion into account early in the design flow during the system cosimulation. The originality of this approach is that it allows the power estimation for both white-box intellectual properties (IPs using annotated power models and black-box IPs using standalone power estimators. In order to obtain accurate power estimates, our simulations were performed at the cycle-accurate bit-accurate (CABA level, using SystemC. To make our approach fast and not tedious for users, the simulated architectures, including standalone power estimators, were generated automatically using a model driven engineering (MDE approach. Both annotated power models and standalone power estimators can be used together to estimate the consumption of the same architecture, which makes them complementary. The simulation results showed that the power estimates given by both estimation techniques for a hardware component are very close, with a difference that does not exceed 0.3%. This proves that, even when the IP code is not accessible or not modifiable, our approach allows obtaining quite accurate power estimates that early in the design flow thanks to the automation offered by the MDE approach.

  20. Systems approach to modeling the Token Bucket algorithm in computer networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed N. U.

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we construct a new dynamic model for the Token Bucket (TB algorithm used in computer networks and use systems approach for its analysis. This model is then augmented by adding a dynamic model for a multiplexor at an access node where the TB exercises a policing function. In the model, traffic policing, multiplexing and network utilization are formally defined. Based on the model, we study such issues as (quality of service QoS, traffic sizing and network dimensioning. Also we propose an algorithm using feedback control to improve QoS and network utilization. Applying MPEG video traces as the input traffic to the model, we verify the usefulness and effectiveness of our model.

  1. Methanol Reformer System Modeling and Control using an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Justesen, Kristian Kjær; Ehmsen, Mikkel Præstholm; Andersen, John

    2012-01-01

    This work presents the experimental study and modelling of a methanol reformer system for a high temperature polymer electrolyte membrane (HTPEM) fuel cell stack. The analyzed system is a fully integrated HTPEM fuel cell system with a DC/DC control output able to be used as e.g. a mobile battery...... charger. The advantages of using a HTPEM methanol reformer is that the high quality waste heat can be used as a system heat input to heat and evaporate the input methanol/water mixture which afterwards is catalytically converted into a hydrogen rich gas usable in the high CO tolerant HTPEM fuel cells....... Creating a fuel cell system able to use a well known and easily distributable liquid fuel such as methanol is a good choice in some applications such as range extenders for electric vehicles as an alternative to compressed hydrogen. This work presents a control strategy called Current Correction...

  2. A statistical modeling approach to build expert credit risk rating systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Waagepetersen, Rasmus

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents an efficient method for extracting expert knowledge when building a credit risk rating system. Experts are asked to rate a sample of counterparty cases according to creditworthiness. Next, a statistical model is used to capture the relation between the characteristics...... of a counterparty and the expert rating. For any counterparty the model can identify the rating, which would be agreed upon by the majority of experts. Furthermore, the model can quantify the concurrence among experts. The approach is illustrated by a case study regarding the construction of an application score...

  3. A Declarative Design Approach to Modeling Traditional and Non-Traditional Space Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoag, Lucy M.

    The space system design process is known to be laborious, complex, and computationally demanding. It is highly multi-disciplinary, involving several interdependent subsystems that must be both highly optimized and reliable due to the high cost of launch. Satellites must also be capable of operating in harsh and unpredictable environments, so integrating high-fidelity analysis is important. To address each of these concerns, a holistic design approach is necessary. However, while the sophistication of space systems has evolved significantly in the last 60 years, improvements in the design process have been comparatively stagnant. Space systems continue to be designed using a procedural, subsystem-by-subsystem approach. This method is inadequate since it generally requires extensive iteration and limited or heuristic-based search, which can be slow, labor-intensive, and inaccurate. The use of a declarative design approach can potentially address these inadequacies. In the declarative programming style, the focus of a problem is placed on what the objective is, and not necessarily how it should be achieved. In the context of design, this entails knowledge expressed as a declaration of statements that are true about the desired artifact instead of explicit instructions on how to implement it. A well-known technique is through constraint-based reasoning, where a design problem is represented as a network of rules and constraints that are reasoned across by a solver to dynamically discover the optimal candidate(s). This enables implicit instantiation of the tradespace and allows for automatic generation of all feasible design candidates. As such, this approach also appears to be well-suited to modeling adaptable space systems, which generally have large tradespaces and possess configurations that are not well-known a priori. This research applied a declarative design approach to holistic satellite design and to tradespace exploration for adaptable space systems. The

  4. Numeric, Agent-based or System dynamics model? Which modeling approach is the best for vast population simulation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cimler, Richard; Tomaskova, Hana; Kuhnova, Jitka; Dolezal, Ondrej; Pscheidl, Pavel; Kuca, Kamil

    2018-02-01

    Alzheimer's disease is one of the most common mental illnesses. It is posited that more than 25 % of the population is affected by some mental disease during their lifetime. Treatment of each patient draws resources from the economy concerned. Therefore, it is important to quantify the potential economic impact. Agent-based, system dynamics and numerical approaches to dynamic modeling of the population of the European Union and its patients with Alzheimer's disease are presented in this article. Simulations, their characteristics, and the results from different modeling tools are compared. The results of these approaches are compared with EU population growth predictions from the statistical office of the EU by Eurostat. The methodology of a creation of the models is described and all three modeling approaches are compared. The suitability of each modeling approach for the population modeling is discussed. In this case study, all three approaches gave us the results corresponding with the EU population prediction. Moreover, we were able to predict the number of patients with AD and, based on the modeling method, we were also able to monitor different characteristics of the population. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

  5. Rule-based modeling: a computational approach for studying biomolecular site dynamics in cell signaling systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chylek, Lily A.; Harris, Leonard A.; Tung, Chang-Shung; Faeder, James R.; Lopez, Carlos F.

    2013-01-01

    Rule-based modeling was developed to address the limitations of traditional approaches for modeling chemical kinetics in cell signaling systems. These systems consist of multiple interacting biomolecules (e.g., proteins), which themselves consist of multiple parts (e.g., domains, linear motifs, and sites of phosphorylation). Consequently, biomolecules that mediate information processing generally have the potential to interact in multiple ways, with the number of possible complexes and post-translational modification states tending to grow exponentially with the number of binary interactions considered. As a result, only large reaction networks capture all possible consequences of the molecular interactions that occur in a cell signaling system, which is problematic because traditional modeling approaches for chemical kinetics (e.g., ordinary differential equations) require explicit network specification. This problem is circumvented through representation of interactions in terms of local rules. With this approach, network specification is implicit and model specification is concise. Concise representation results in a coarse graining of chemical kinetics, which is introduced because all reactions implied by a rule inherit the rate law associated with that rule. Coarse graining can be appropriate if interactions are modular, and the coarseness of a model can be adjusted as needed. Rules can be specified using specialized model-specification languages, and recently developed tools designed for specification of rule-based models allow one to leverage powerful software engineering capabilities. A rule-based model comprises a set of rules, which can be processed by general-purpose simulation and analysis tools to achieve different objectives (e.g., to perform either a deterministic or stochastic simulation). PMID:24123887

  6. Rule-based modeling: a computational approach for studying biomolecular site dynamics in cell signaling systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chylek, Lily A; Harris, Leonard A; Tung, Chang-Shung; Faeder, James R; Lopez, Carlos F; Hlavacek, William S

    2014-01-01

    Rule-based modeling was developed to address the limitations of traditional approaches for modeling chemical kinetics in cell signaling systems. These systems consist of multiple interacting biomolecules (e.g., proteins), which themselves consist of multiple parts (e.g., domains, linear motifs, and sites of phosphorylation). Consequently, biomolecules that mediate information processing generally have the potential to interact in multiple ways, with the number of possible complexes and posttranslational modification states tending to grow exponentially with the number of binary interactions considered. As a result, only large reaction networks capture all possible consequences of the molecular interactions that occur in a cell signaling system, which is problematic because traditional modeling approaches for chemical kinetics (e.g., ordinary differential equations) require explicit network specification. This problem is circumvented through representation of interactions in terms of local rules. With this approach, network specification is implicit and model specification is concise. Concise representation results in a coarse graining of chemical kinetics, which is introduced because all reactions implied by a rule inherit the rate law associated with that rule. Coarse graining can be appropriate if interactions are modular, and the coarseness of a model can be adjusted as needed. Rules can be specified using specialized model-specification languages, and recently developed tools designed for specification of rule-based models allow one to leverage powerful software engineering capabilities. A rule-based model comprises a set of rules, which can be processed by general-purpose simulation and analysis tools to achieve different objectives (e.g., to perform either a deterministic or stochastic simulation). © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  7. Competing risk models in reliability systems, a Weibull distribution model with Bayesian analysis approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iskandar, Ismed; Gondokaryono, Yudi Satria

    2016-01-01

    In reliability theory, the most important problem is to determine the reliability of a complex system from the reliability of its components. The weakness of most reliability theories is that the systems are described and explained as simply functioning or failed. In many real situations, the failures may be from many causes depending upon the age and the environment of the system and its components. Another problem in reliability theory is one of estimating the parameters of the assumed failure models. The estimation may be based on data collected over censored or uncensored life tests. In many reliability problems, the failure data are simply quantitatively inadequate, especially in engineering design and maintenance system. The Bayesian analyses are more beneficial than the classical one in such cases. The Bayesian estimation analyses allow us to combine past knowledge or experience in the form of an apriori distribution with life test data to make inferences of the parameter of interest. In this paper, we have investigated the application of the Bayesian estimation analyses to competing risk systems. The cases are limited to the models with independent causes of failure by using the Weibull distribution as our model. A simulation is conducted for this distribution with the objectives of verifying the models and the estimators and investigating the performance of the estimators for varying sample size. The simulation data are analyzed by using Bayesian and the maximum likelihood analyses. The simulation results show that the change of the true of parameter relatively to another will change the value of standard deviation in an opposite direction. For a perfect information on the prior distribution, the estimation methods of the Bayesian analyses are better than those of the maximum likelihood. The sensitivity analyses show some amount of sensitivity over the shifts of the prior locations. They also show the robustness of the Bayesian analysis within the range

  8. Modeling and Simulation Resource Repository (MSRR)(System Engineering/Integrated M&S Management Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milroy, Audrey; Hale, Joe

    2006-01-01

    NASA s Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) is implementing a management approach for modeling and simulation (M&S) that will provide decision-makers information on the model s fidelity, credibility, and quality, including the verification, validation and accreditation information. The NASA MSRR will be implemented leveraging M&S industry best practices. This presentation will discuss the requirements that will enable NASA to capture and make available the "meta data" or "simulation biography" data associated with a model. The presentation will also describe the requirements that drive how NASA will collect and document relevant information for models or suites of models in order to facilitate use and reuse of relevant models and provide visibility across NASA organizations and the larger M&S community.

  9. Modelling the Heat Consumption in District Heating Systems using a Grey-box approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Madsen, Henrik

    2006-01-01

    identification of an overall model structure followed by data-based modelling, whereby the details of the model are identified. This approach is sometimes called grey-box modelling, but the specific approach used here does not require states to be specified. Overall, the paper demonstrates the power of the grey......-box approach. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved....

  10. Mobile Agent-Based Software Systems Modeling Approaches: A Comparative Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aissam Belghiat

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Mobile agent-based applications are special type of software systems which take the advantages of mobile agents in order to provide a new beneficial paradigm to solve multiple complex problems in several fields and areas such as network management, e-commerce, e-learning, etc. Likewise, we notice lack of real applications based on this paradigm and lack of serious evaluations of their modeling approaches. Hence, this paper provides a comparative study of modeling approaches of mobile agent-based software systems. The objective is to give the reader an overview and a thorough understanding of the work that has been done and where the gaps in the research are.

  11. Modeling Dynamic Processes in Smallholder Dairy Value Chains in Nicaragua: A System Dynamics Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helene Lie

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available In Nicaragua, the production of dairy and beef is the most important source of household income for many smallholder producers. However, erratic volumes and quality of milk limit the participation of small- and medium-scale cattle farmers into higher-value dairy value chains. This research uses a system dynamics (SD approach to analyze the Matiguás dairy value chain in Nicaragua. The paper presents the conceptual framework of the model and highlights the dynamic processes in the value chain, with a focus on improving feeding systems to achieve higher milk productivity and increased income for producers. The model was developed using a participatory group model building (GMB technique to jointly conceptualize and validate the model with stakeholders.

  12. Exploring a model-driven architecture (MDA) approach to health care information systems development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raghupathi, Wullianallur; Umar, Amjad

    2008-05-01

    To explore the potential of the model-driven architecture (MDA) in health care information systems development. An MDA is conceptualized and developed for a health clinic system to track patient information. A prototype of the MDA is implemented using an advanced MDA tool. The UML provides the underlying modeling support in the form of the class diagram. The PIM to PSM transformation rules are applied to generate the prototype application from the model. The result of the research is a complete MDA methodology to developing health care information systems. Additional insights gained include development of transformation rules and documentation of the challenges in the application of MDA to health care. Design guidelines for future MDA applications are described. The model has the potential for generalizability. The overall approach supports limited interoperability and portability. The research demonstrates the applicability of the MDA approach to health care information systems development. When properly implemented, it has the potential to overcome the challenges of platform (vendor) dependency, lack of open standards, interoperability, portability, scalability, and the high cost of implementation.

  13. Fuzzy parametric uncertainty analysis of linear dynamical systems: A surrogate modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowdhury, R.; Adhikari, S.

    2012-10-01

    Uncertainty propagation engineering systems possess significant computational challenges. This paper explores the possibility of using correlated function expansion based metamodelling approach when uncertain system parameters are modeled using Fuzzy variables. In particular, the application of High-Dimensional Model Representation (HDMR) is proposed for fuzzy finite element analysis of dynamical systems. The HDMR expansion is a set of quantitative model assessment and analysis tools for capturing high-dimensional input-output system behavior based on a hierarchy of functions of increasing dimensions. The input variables may be either finite-dimensional (i.e., a vector of parameters chosen from the Euclidean space RM) or may be infinite-dimensional as in the function space CM[0,1]. The computational effort to determine the expansion functions using the alpha cut method scales polynomially with the number of variables rather than exponentially. This logic is based on the fundamental assumption underlying the HDMR representation that only low-order correlations among the input variables are likely to have significant impacts upon the outputs for most high-dimensional complex systems. The proposed method is integrated with a commercial Finite Element software. Modal analysis of a simplified aircraft wing with Fuzzy parameters has been used to illustrate the generality of the proposed approach. In the numerical examples, triangular membership functions have been used and the results have been validated against direct Monte Carlo simulations.

  14. A simulation based optimization approach to model and design life support systems for manned space missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aydogan, Selen

    This dissertation considers the problem of process synthesis and design of life-support systems for manned space missions. A life-support system is a set of technologies to support human life for short and long-term spaceflights, via providing the basic life-support elements, such as oxygen, potable water, and food. The design of the system needs to meet the crewmember demand for the basic life-support elements (products of the system) and it must process the loads generated by the crewmembers. The system is subject to a myriad of uncertainties because most of the technologies involved are still under development. The result is high levels of uncertainties in the estimates of the model parameters, such as recovery rates or process efficiencies. Moreover, due to the high recycle rates within the system, the uncertainties are amplified and propagated within the system, resulting in a complex problem. In this dissertation, two algorithms have been successfully developed to help making design decisions for life-support systems. The algorithms utilize a simulation-based optimization approach that combines a stochastic discrete-event simulation and a deterministic mathematical programming approach to generate multiple, unique realizations of the controlled evolution of the system. The timelines are analyzed using time series data mining techniques and statistical tools to determine the necessary technologies, their deployment schedules and capacities, and the necessary basic life-support element amounts to support crew life and activities for the mission duration.

  15. Model-based system engineering approach for the Euclid mission to manage scientific and technical complexity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenzo Alvarez, Jose; Metselaar, Harold; Amiaux, Jerome; Saavedra Criado, Gonzalo; Gaspar Venancio, Luis M.; Salvignol, Jean-Christophe; Laureijs, René J.; Vavrek, Roland

    2016-08-01

    In the last years, the system engineering field is coming to terms with a paradigm change in the approach for complexity management. Different strategies have been proposed to cope with highly interrelated systems, system of systems and collaborative system engineering have been proposed and a significant effort is being invested into standardization and ontology definition. In particular, Model Based System Engineering (MBSE) intends to introduce methodologies for a systematic system definition, development, validation, deployment, operation and decommission, based on logical and visual relationship mapping, rather than traditional 'document based' information management. The practical implementation in real large-scale projects is not uniform across fields. In space science missions, the usage has been limited to subsystems or sample projects with modeling being performed 'a-posteriori' in many instances. The main hurdle for the introduction of MBSE practices in new projects is still the difficulty to demonstrate their added value to a project and whether their benefit is commensurate with the level of effort required to put them in place. In this paper we present the implemented Euclid system modeling activities, and an analysis of the benefits and limitations identified to support in particular requirement break-down and allocation, and verification planning at mission level.

  16. Rapid customization system for 3D-printed splint using programmable modeling technique - a practical approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jianyou; Tanaka, Hiroya

    2018-01-01

    Traditional splinting processes are skill dependent and irreversible, and patient satisfaction levels during rehabilitation are invariably lowered by the heavy structure and poor ventilation of splints. To overcome this drawback, use of the 3D-printing technology has been proposed in recent years, and there has been an increase in public awareness. However, application of 3D-printing technologies is limited by the low CAD proficiency of clinicians as well as unforeseen scan flaws within anatomic models.A programmable modeling tool has been employed to develop a semi-automatic design system for generating a printable splint model. The modeling process was divided into five stages, and detailed steps involved in construction of the proposed system as well as automatic thickness calculation, the lattice structure, and assembly method have been thoroughly described. The proposed approach allows clinicians to verify the state of the splint model at every stage, thereby facilitating adjustment of input content and/or other parameters to help solve possible modeling issues. A finite element analysis simulation was performed to evaluate the structural strength of generated models. A fit investigation was applied on fabricated splints and volunteers to assess the wearing experience. Manual modeling steps involved in complex splint designs have been programed into the proposed automatic system. Clinicians define the splinting region by drawing two curves, thereby obtaining the final model within minutes. The proposed system is capable of automatically patching up minor flaws within the limb model as well as calculating the thickness and lattice density of various splints. Large splints could be divided into three parts for simultaneous multiple printing. This study highlights the advantages, limitations, and possible strategies concerning application of programmable modeling tools in clinical processes, thereby aiding clinicians with lower CAD proficiencies to become adept

  17. Modeling of the bacterial mechanism of methicillin-resistance by a systems biology approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ida Autiero

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: A microorganism is a complex biological system able to preserve its functional features against external perturbations and the ability of the living systems to oppose to these external perturbations is defined "robustness". The antibiotic resistance, developed by different bacteria strains, is a clear example of robustness and of ability of the bacterial system to acquire a particular functional behaviour in response to environmental changes. In this work we have modeled the whole mechanism essential to the methicillin-resistance through a systems biology approach. The methicillin is a beta-lactamic antibiotic that act by inhibiting the penicillin-binding proteins (PBPs. These PBPs are involved in the synthesis of peptidoglycans, essential mesh-like polymers that surround cellular enzymes and are crucial for the bacterium survival. METHODOLOGY: The network of genes, mRNA, proteins and metabolites was created using CellDesigner program and the data of molecular interactions are stored in Systems Biology Markup Language (SBML. To simulate the dynamic behaviour of this biochemical network, the kinetic equations were associated with each reaction. CONCLUSIONS: Our model simulates the mechanism of the inactivation of the PBP by methicillin, as well as the expression of PBP2a isoform, the regulation of the SCCmec elements (SCC: staphylococcal cassette chromosome and the synthesis of peptidoglycan by PBP2a. The obtained results by our integrated approach show that the model describes correctly the whole phenomenon of the methicillin resistance and is able to respond to the external perturbations in the same way of the real cell. Therefore, this model can be useful to develop new therapeutic approaches for the methicillin control and to understand the general mechanism regarding the cellular resistance to some antibiotics.

  18. Forecasting the shortage of neurosurgeons in Iran using a system dynamics model approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rafiei, Sima; Daneshvaran, Arman; Abdollahzade, Sina

    2018-01-01

    Shortage of physicians particularly in specialty levels is considered as an important issue in Iran health system. Thus, in an uncertain environment, long-term planning is required for health professionals as a basic priority on a national scale. This study aimed to estimate the number of required neurosurgeons using system dynamic modeling. System dynamic modeling was applied to predict the gap between stock and number of required neurosurgeons in Iran up to 2020. A supply and demand simulation model was constructed for neurosurgeons using system dynamic approach. The demand model included epidemiological, demographic, and utilization variables along with supply model-incorporated current stock of neurosurgeons and flow variables such as attrition, migration, and retirement rate. Data were obtained from various governmental databases and were analyzed by Vensim PLE Version 3.0 to address the flow of health professionals, clinical infrastructure, population demographics, and disease prevalence during the time. It was forecasted that shortage in number of neurosurgeons would disappear at 2020. The most dominant determinants on predicted number of neurosurgeons were the prevalence of neurosurgical diseases, the rate for service utilization, and medical capacity of the region. Shortage of neurosurgeons in some areas of the country relates to maldistribution of the specialists. Accordingly, there is a need to reconsider the allocation system for health professionals within the country instead of increasing the overall number of acceptance quota in training positions.

  19. Reliability modeling of a hard real-time system using the path-space approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Hagbae

    2000-01-01

    A hard real-time system, such as a fly-by-wire system, fails catastrophically (e.g. losing stability) if its control inputs are not updated by its digital controller computer within a certain timing constraint called the hard deadline. To assess and validate those systems' reliabilities by using a semi-Markov model that explicitly contains the deadline information, we propose a path-space approach deriving the upper and lower bounds of the probability of system failure. These bounds are derived by using only simple parameters, and they are especially suitable for highly reliable systems which should recover quickly. Analytical bounds are derived for both exponential and Wobble failure distributions encountered commonly, which have proven effective through numerical examples, while considering three repair strategies: repair-as-good-as-new, repair-as-good-as-old, and repair-better-than-old

  20. Collaborative Proposal: Transforming How Climate System Models are Used: A Global, Multi-Resolution Approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Estep, Donald

    2013-04-15

    Despite the great interest in regional modeling for both weather and climate applications, regional modeling is not yet at the stage that it can be used routinely and effectively for climate modeling of the ocean. The overarching goal of this project is to transform how climate models are used by developing and implementing a robust, efficient, and accurate global approach to regional ocean modeling. To achieve this goal, we will use theoretical and computational means to resolve several basic modeling and algorithmic issues. The first task is to develop techniques for transitioning between parameterized and high-fidelity regional ocean models as the discretization grid transitions from coarse to fine regions. The second task is to develop estimates for the error in scientifically relevant quantities of interest that provide a systematic way to automatically determine where refinement is needed in order to obtain accurate simulations of dynamic and tracer transport in regional ocean models. The third task is to develop efficient, accurate, and robust time-stepping schemes for variable spatial resolution discretizations used in regional ocean models of dynamics and tracer transport. The fourth task is to develop frequency-dependent eddy viscosity finite element and discontinuous Galerkin methods and study their performance and effectiveness for simulation of dynamics and tracer transport in regional ocean models. These four projects share common difficulties and will be approach using a common computational and mathematical toolbox. This is a multidisciplinary project involving faculty and postdocs from Colorado State University, Florida State University, and Penn State University along with scientists from Los Alamos National Laboratory. The completion of the tasks listed within the discussion of the four sub-projects will go a long way towards meeting our goal of developing superior regional ocean models that will transform how climate system models are used.

  1. A mathematical model in cellular manufacturing system considering subcontracting approach under constraints

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kamran Forghani

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a new mathematical model in cellular manufacturing systems (CMSs has been presented. In order to increase the performance of manufacturing system, the production quantity of parts has been considered as a decision variable, i.e. each part can be produced and outsourced, simultaneously. This extension would be minimized the unused capacity of machines. The exceptional elements (EEs are taken into account and would be totally outsourced to the external supplier in order to remove intercellular material handling cost. The problem has been formulated as a mixed-integer programming to minimize the sum of manufacturing variable costs under budget, machines capacity and demand constraints. Also, to evaluate advantages of the model, several illustrative numerical examples have been provided to compare the performance of the proposed model with the available classical approaches in the literature.

  2. Integrated Approach Model of Risk, Control and Auditing of Accounting Information Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudiu BRANDAS

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The use of IT in the financial and accounting processes is growing fast and this leads to an increase in the research and professional concerns about the risks, control and audit of Ac-counting Information Systems (AIS. In this context, the risk and control of AIS approach is a central component of processes for IT audit, financial audit and IT Governance. Recent studies in the literature on the concepts of risk, control and auditing of AIS outline two approaches: (1 a professional approach in which we can fit ISA, COBIT, IT Risk, COSO and SOX, and (2 a research oriented approach in which we emphasize research on continuous auditing and fraud using information technology. Starting from the limits of existing approaches, our study is aimed to developing and testing an Integrated Approach Model of Risk, Control and Auditing of AIS on three cycles of business processes: purchases cycle, sales cycle and cash cycle in order to improve the efficiency of IT Governance, as well as ensuring integrity, reality, accuracy and availability of financial statements.

  3. Qualitative Fault Isolation of Hybrid Systems: A Structural Model Decomposition-Based Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bregon, Anibal; Daigle, Matthew; Roychoudhury, Indranil

    2016-01-01

    Quick and robust fault diagnosis is critical to ensuring safe operation of complex engineering systems. A large number of techniques are available to provide fault diagnosis in systems with continuous dynamics. However, many systems in aerospace and industrial environments are best represented as hybrid systems that consist of discrete behavioral modes, each with its own continuous dynamics. These hybrid dynamics make the on-line fault diagnosis task computationally more complex due to the large number of possible system modes and the existence of autonomous mode transitions. This paper presents a qualitative fault isolation framework for hybrid systems based on structural model decomposition. The fault isolation is performed by analyzing the qualitative information of the residual deviations. However, in hybrid systems this process becomes complex due to possible existence of observation delays, which can cause observed deviations to be inconsistent with the expected deviations for the current mode in the system. The great advantage of structural model decomposition is that (i) it allows to design residuals that respond to only a subset of the faults, and (ii) every time a mode change occurs, only a subset of the residuals will need to be reconfigured, thus reducing the complexity of the reasoning process for isolation purposes. To demonstrate and test the validity of our approach, we use an electric circuit simulation as the case study.

  4. A Model-Based Approach to Engineering Behavior of Complex Aerospace Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingham, Michel; Day, John; Donahue, Kenneth; Kadesch, Alex; Kennedy, Andrew; Khan, Mohammed Omair; Post, Ethan; Standley, Shaun

    2012-01-01

    One of the most challenging yet poorly defined aspects of engineering a complex aerospace system is behavior engineering, including definition, specification, design, implementation, and verification and validation of the system's behaviors. This is especially true for behaviors of highly autonomous and intelligent systems. Behavior engineering is more of an art than a science. As a process it is generally ad-hoc, poorly specified, and inconsistently applied from one project to the next. It uses largely informal representations, and results in system behavior being documented in a wide variety of disparate documents. To address this problem, JPL has undertaken a pilot project to apply its institutional capabilities in Model-Based Systems Engineering to the challenge of specifying complex spacecraft system behavior. This paper describes the results of the work in progress on this project. In particular, we discuss our approach to modeling spacecraft behavior including 1) requirements and design flowdown from system-level to subsystem-level, 2) patterns for behavior decomposition, 3) allocation of behaviors to physical elements in the system, and 4) patterns for capturing V&V activities associated with behavioral requirements. We provide examples of interesting behavior specification patterns, and discuss findings from the pilot project.

  5. A modeling approach for district heating systems with focus on transient heat transfer in pipe networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mohammadi, Soma; Bojesen, Carsten

    2015-01-01

    the temperature in DH systems. The main focus is on modeling transient heat transfer in pipe networks regarding the time delays between the heat supply unit and the consumers, the heat loss in the pipe networks and the consumers’ dynamic heat loads. A pseudo-dynamic approach is adopted and also the implicit...... district heating networks [DHN] characteristics. This paper is presenting a new developed model, which reflects the thermo-dynamic behavior of DHN. It is designed for tree network topologies. The purpose of the model is to serve as a basis for applying a variety of scenarios towards lowering...... finite element method is applied to simulate transient temperature changes in pipe networks. The model is calculating time series data related to supply temperature to the DHN from heat production units, heat loads and return temperature related to each consumer to calculate dynamic temperature changes...

  6. An Integrated Approach of Model checking and Temporal Fault Tree for System Safety Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koh, Kwang Yong; Seong, Poong Hyun [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2009-10-15

    Digitalization of instruments and control systems in nuclear power plants offers the potential to improve plant safety and reliability through features such as increased hardware reliability and stability, and improved failure detection capability. It however makes the systems and their safety analysis more complex. Originally, safety analysis was applied to hardware system components and formal methods mainly to software. For software-controlled or digitalized systems, it is necessary to integrate both. Fault tree analysis (FTA) which has been one of the most widely used safety analysis technique in nuclear industry suffers from several drawbacks as described in. In this work, to resolve the problems, FTA and model checking are integrated to provide formal, automated and qualitative assistance to informal and/or quantitative safety analysis. Our approach proposes to build a formal model of the system together with fault trees. We introduce several temporal gates based on timed computational tree logic (TCTL) to capture absolute time behaviors of the system and to give concrete semantics to fault tree gates to reduce errors during the analysis, and use model checking technique to automate the reasoning process of FTA.

  7. Modeling of a production system using the multi-agent approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gwiazda, A.; Sękala, A.; Banaś, W.

    2017-08-01

    The method that allows for the analysis of complex systems is a multi-agent simulation. The multi-agent simulation (Agent-based modeling and simulation - ABMS) is modeling of complex systems consisting of independent agents. In the case of the model of the production system agents may be manufactured pieces set apart from other types of agents like machine tools, conveyors or replacements stands. Agents are magazines and buffers. More generally speaking, the agents in the model can be single individuals, but you can also be defined as agents of collective entities. They are allowed hierarchical structures. It means that a single agent could belong to a certain class. Depending on the needs of the agent may also be a natural or physical resource. From a technical point of view, the agent is a bundle of data and rules describing its behavior in different situations. Agents can be autonomous or non-autonomous in making the decision about the types of classes of agents, class sizes and types of connections between elements of the system. Multi-agent modeling is a very flexible technique for modeling and model creating in the convention that could be adapted to any research problem analyzed from different points of views. One of the major problems associated with the organization of production is the spatial organization of the production process. Secondly, it is important to include the optimal scheduling. For this purpose use can approach multi-purposeful. In this regard, the model of the production process will refer to the design and scheduling of production space for four different elements. The program system was developed in the environment NetLogo. It was also used elements of artificial intelligence. The main agent represents the manufactured pieces that, according to previously assumed rules, generate the technological route and allow preprint the schedule of that line. Machine lines, reorientation stands, conveyors and transport devices also represent the

  8. COORDINATION IN MULTILEVEL NETWORK-CENTRIC CONTROL SYSTEMS OF REGIONAL SECURITY: APPROACH AND FORMAL MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. V. Masloboev

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with development of methods and tools for mathematical and computer modeling of the multilevel network-centric control systems of regional security. This research is carried out under development strategy implementation of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation and national safeguarding for the period before 2020 in the Murmansk region territory. Creation of unified interdepartmental multilevel computer-aided system is proposed intended for decision-making information support and socio-economic security monitoring of the Arctic regions of Russia. The distinctive features of the investigated system class are openness, self-organization, decentralization of management functions and decision-making, weak hierarchy in the decision-making circuit and goal generation capability inside itself. Research techniques include functional-target approach, mathematical apparatus of multilevel hierarchical system theory and principles of network-centric control of distributed systems with pro-active components and variable structure. The work considers network-centric management local decisions coordination problem-solving within the multilevel distributed systems intended for information support of regional security. The coordination problem-solving approach and problem formalization in the multilevel network-centric control systems of regional security have been proposed based on developed multilevel recurrent hierarchical model of regional socio-economic system complex security. The model provides coordination of regional security indexes, optimized by the different elements of multilevel control systems, subject to decentralized decision-making. The model specificity consists in application of functional-target technology and mathematical apparatus of multilevel hierarchical system theory for coordination procedures implementation of the network-centric management local decisions. The work-out and research results can find further

  9. Knowledge mobilisation for policy development: implementing systems approaches through participatory dynamic simulation modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freebairn, Louise; Rychetnik, Lucie; Atkinson, Jo-An; Kelly, Paul; McDonnell, Geoff; Roberts, Nick; Whittall, Christine; Redman, Sally

    2017-10-02

    Evidence-based decision-making is an important foundation for health policy and service planning decisions, yet there remain challenges in ensuring that the many forms of available evidence are considered when decisions are being made. Mobilising knowledge for policy and practice is an emergent process, and one that is highly relational, often messy and profoundly context dependent. Systems approaches, such as dynamic simulation modelling can be used to examine both complex health issues and the context in which they are embedded, and to develop decision support tools. This paper reports on the novel use of participatory simulation modelling as a knowledge mobilisation tool in Australian real-world policy settings. We describe how this approach combined systems science methodology and some of the core elements of knowledge mobilisation best practice. We describe the strategies adopted in three case studies to address both technical and socio-political issues, and compile the experiential lessons derived. Finally, we consider the implications of these knowledge mobilisation case studies and provide evidence for the feasibility of this approach in policy development settings. Participatory dynamic simulation modelling builds on contemporary knowledge mobilisation approaches for health stakeholders to collaborate and explore policy and health service scenarios for priority public health topics. The participatory methods place the decision-maker at the centre of the process and embed deliberative methods and co-production of knowledge. The simulation models function as health policy and programme dynamic decision support tools that integrate diverse forms of evidence, including research evidence, expert knowledge and localised contextual information. Further research is underway to determine the impact of these methods on health service decision-making.

  10. Modelling the impact of mining on socio-economic infrastructure development: a system dynamics approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maluleke, George

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The contribution of mining activities to social infrastructure and human development is a complex socio-economic development issue in South Africa. Complexity theory has introduced a new approach to solving problems in social systems, recognising them as complex systems. The socio-economic development system in South Africa falls into this category of complex systems. Analysing such a system requires that a number of feedback loops and details about the issues be analysed simultaneously. This level of complexity is above a human’s ability to comprehend without the aid of tools such as systems thinking and system dynamics. The causality between investment in infrastructure capacity and socio-economic development is dynamic. The relationship is influenced by exogenous feedback that, if not managed, is likely to reverse itself. This paper presents the results of a system dynamics modelling of the relationship, based on the principle of relative attractiveness developed in previous system dynamics research. A Monte Carlo analysis is used to determine the sensitivity of the system to changes in feedback. The paper concludes that the limits to growth in a socio-economic environment are determined by more factors than the availability of capital, and also include land capacity constraints and skills shortage.

  11. Uncertainty Modeling and Robust Output Feedback Control of Nonlinear Discrete Systems: A Mathematical Programming Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olav Slupphaug

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a mathematical programming approach to robust control of nonlinear systems with uncertain, possibly time-varying, parameters. The uncertain system is given by different local affine parameter dependent models in different parts of the state space. It is shown how this representation can be obtained from a nonlinear uncertain system by solving a set of continuous linear semi-infinite programming problems, and how each of these problems can be solved as a (finite series of ordinary linear programs. Additionally, the system representation includes control- and state constraints. The controller design method is derived from Lyapunov stability arguments and utilizes an affine parameter dependent quadratic Lyapunov function. The controller has a piecewise affine output feedback structure, and the design amounts to finding a feasible solution to a set of linear matrix inequalities combined with one spectral radius constraint on the product of two positive definite matrices. A local solution approach to this nonconvex feasibility problem is proposed. Complexity of the design method and some special cases such as state- feedback are discussed. Finally, an application of the results is given by proposing an on-line computationally feasible algorithm for constrained nonlinear state- feedback model predictive control with robust stability.

  12. Energy demand projections based on an uncertain dynamic system modeling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dong, S.

    2000-01-01

    Today, China has become the world's second largest pollution source of CO 2 . Owing to coal-based energy consumption, it is estimated that 85--90% of the SO 2 and CO 2 emission of China results from coal use. With high economic growth and increasing environmental concerns, China's energy consumption in the next few decades has become an issue of active concern. Forecasting of energy demand over long periods, however, is getting more complex and uncertain. It is believed that the economic and energy systems are chaotic and nonlinear. Traditional linear system modeling, used mostly in energy demand forecasts, therefore, is not a useful approach. In view of uncertainty and imperfect information about future economic growth and energy development, an uncertain dynamic system model, which has the ability to incorporate and absorb the nature of an uncertain system with imperfect or incomplete information, is developed. Using the model, the forecasting of energy demand in the next 25 years is provided. The model predicts that China's energy demand in 2020 will be about 2,700--3,000 Mtce, coal demand 3,500 Mt, increasing by 128% and 154%, respectively, compared with that of 1995

  13. The Evolution of Cooperation in Managed Groundwater Systems: An Agent-Based Modelling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castilla Rho, J. C.; Mariethoz, G.; Rojas, R. F.; Andersen, M. S.; Kelly, B. F.; Holley, C.

    2014-12-01

    Human interactions with groundwater systems often exhibit complex features that hinder the sustainable management of the resource. This leads to costly and persistent conflicts over groundwater at the catchment scale. One possible way to address these conflicts is by gaining a better understanding of how social and groundwater dynamics coevolve using agent-based models (ABM). Such models allow exploring 'bottom-up' solutions (i.e., self-organised governance systems), where the behaviour of individual agents (e.g., farmers) results in the emergence of mutual cooperation among groundwater users. There is significant empirical evidence indicating that this kind of 'bottom-up' approach may lead to more enduring and sustainable outcomes, compared to conventional 'top-down' strategies such as centralized control and water right schemes (Ostrom 1990). New modelling tools are needed to study these concepts systematically and efficiently. Our model uses a conceptual framework to study cooperation and the emergence of social norms as initially proposed by Axelrod (1986), which we adapted to groundwater management. We developed an ABM that integrates social mechanisms and the physics of subsurface flow. The model explicitly represents feedback between groundwater conditions and social dynamics, capturing the spatial structure of these interactions and the potential effects on cooperation levels in an agricultural setting. Using this model, we investigate a series of mechanisms that may trigger norms supporting cooperative strategies, which can be sustained and become stable over time. For example, farmers in a self-monitoring community can be more efficient at achieving the objective of sustainable groundwater use than government-imposed regulation. Our coupled model thus offers a platform for testing new schemes promoting cooperation and improved resource use, which can be used as a basis for policy design. Importantly, we hope to raise awareness of agent-based modelling as

  14. Modeling and simulation of equivalent circuits in description of biological systems - a fractional calculus approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Francisco Gómez Aguilar

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Using the fractional calculus approach, we present the Laplace analysis of an equivalent electrical circuit for a multilayered system, which includes distributed elements of the Cole model type. The Bode graphs are obtained from the numerical simulation of the corresponding transfer functions using arbitrary electrical parameters in order to illustrate the methodology. A numerical Laplace transform is used with respect to the simulation of the fractional differential equations. From the results shown in the analysis, we obtain the formula for the equivalent electrical circuit of a simple spectrum, such as that generated by a real sample of blood tissue, and the corresponding Nyquist diagrams. In addition to maintaining consistency in adjusted electrical parameters, the advantage of using fractional differential equations in the study of the impedance spectra is made clear in the analysis used to determine a compact formula for the equivalent electrical circuit, which includes the Cole model and a simple RC model as special cases.

  15. A Systems Approach to Healthcare Innovation Using the MIT Hacking Medicine Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gubin, Tatyana A; Iyer, Hari P; Liew, Shirlene N; Sarma, Aartik; Revelos, Alex; Ribas, João; Movassaghi, Babak; Chu, Zen M; Khalid, Ayesha N; Majmudar, Maulik D; Lee, Christopher Xiang

    2017-07-26

    MIT Hacking Medicine is a student, academic, and community-led organization that uses systems-oriented "healthcare hacking" to address challenges around innovation in healthcare. The group has organized more than 80 events around the world that attract participants with diverse backgrounds. These participants are trained to address clinical needs from the perspective of multiple stakeholders and emphasize utility and implementation viability of proposed solutions. We describe the MIT Hacking Medicine model as a potential method to integrate collaboration and training in rapid innovation techniques into academic medical centers. Built upon a systems approach to healthcare innovation, the time-compressed but expertly guided nature of the events could enable more widely accessible preliminary training in systems-level innovation methodology, as well as creating a structured opportunity for interdisciplinary congregation and collaboration. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. SCIENTIFIC METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES TO CREATION OF COMPLEX CONTROL SYSTEM MODEL FOR THE STREAMS OF BUILDING WASTE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tskhovrebov Eduard Stanislavovich

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In 2011 in Russia a Strategy of Production Development of Construction Materials and Industrial Housing Construction for the period up to 2020 was approved as one of strategic documents in the sphere of construction. In the process of this strategy development all the needs of construction complex were taken into account in all the spheres of economy, including transport system. The strategy also underlined, that the construction industry is a great basis for use and application in secondary economic turnover of dangerous waste from different production branches. This gives possibility to produce construction products of recycled materials and at the same time to solve the problem of environmental protection. The article considers and analyzes scientific methodological approaches to creation of a model of a complex control system for the streams of building waste in frames of organizing uniform ecologically safe and economically effective complex system of waste treatment in country regions.

  17. A systems approach to college drinking: development of a deterministic model for testing alcohol control policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scribner, Richard; Ackleh, Azmy S; Fitzpatrick, Ben G; Jacquez, Geoffrey; Thibodeaux, Jeremy J; Rommel, Robert; Simonsen, Neal

    2009-09-01

    The misuse and abuse of alcohol among college students remain persistent problems. Using a systems approach to understand the dynamics of student drinking behavior and thus forecasting the impact of campus policy to address the problem represents a novel approach. Toward this end, the successful development of a predictive mathematical model of college drinking would represent a significant advance for prevention efforts. A deterministic, compartmental model of college drinking was developed, incorporating three processes: (1) individual factors, (2) social interactions, and (3) social norms. The model quantifies these processes in terms of the movement of students between drinking compartments characterized by five styles of college drinking: abstainers, light drinkers, moderate drinkers, problem drinkers, and heavy episodic drinkers. Predictions from the model were first compared with actual campus-level data and then used to predict the effects of several simulated interventions to address heavy episodic drinking. First, the model provides a reasonable fit of actual drinking styles of students attending Social Norms Marketing Research Project campuses varying by "wetness" and by drinking styles of matriculating students. Second, the model predicts that a combination of simulated interventions targeting heavy episodic drinkers at a moderately "dry" campus would extinguish heavy episodic drinkers, replacing them with light and moderate drinkers. Instituting the same combination of simulated interventions at a moderately "wet" campus would result in only a moderate reduction in heavy episodic drinkers (i.e., 50% to 35%). A simple, five-state compartmental model adequately predicted the actual drinking patterns of students from a variety of campuses surveyed in the Social Norms Marketing Research Project study. The model predicted the impact on drinking patterns of several simulated interventions to address heavy episodic drinking on various types of campuses.

  18. A Systems Approach to College Drinking: Development of a Deterministic Model for Testing Alcohol Control Policies*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scribner, Richard; Ackleh, Azmy S.; Fitzpatrick, Ben G.; Jacquez, Geoffrey; Thibodeaux, Jeremy J.; Rommel, Robert; Simonsen, Neal

    2009-01-01

    Objective: The misuse and abuse of alcohol among college students remain persistent problems. Using a systems approach to understand the dynamics of student drinking behavior and thus forecasting the impact of campus policy to address the problem represents a novel approach. Toward this end, the successful development of a predictive mathematical model of college drinking would represent a significant advance for prevention efforts. Method: A deterministic, compartmental model of college drinking was developed, incorporating three processes: (1) individual factors, (2) social interactions, and (3) social norms. The model quantifies these processes in terms of the movement of students between drinking compartments characterized by five styles of college drinking: abstainers, light drinkers, moderate drinkers, problem drinkers, and heavy episodic drinkers. Predictions from the model were first compared with actual campus-level data and then used to predict the effects of several simulated interventions to address heavy episodic drinking. Results: First, the model provides a reasonable fit of actual drinking styles of students attending Social Norms Marketing Research Project campuses varying by “wetness” and by drinking styles of matriculating students. Second, the model predicts that a combination of simulated interventions targeting heavy episodic drinkers at a moderately “dry” campus would extinguish heavy episodic drinkers, replacing them with light and moderate drinkers. Instituting the same combination of simulated interventions at a moderately “wet” campus would result in only a moderate reduction in heavy episodic drinkers (i.e., 50% to 35%). Conclusions: A simple, five-state compartmental model adequately predicted the actual drinking patterns of students from a variety of campuses surveyed in the Social Norms Marketing Research Project study. The model predicted the impact on drinking patterns of several simulated interventions to address heavy

  19. A meteo-hydrological prediction system based on a multi-model approach for precipitation forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Davolio

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available The precipitation forecasted by a numerical weather prediction model, even at high resolution, suffers from errors which can be considerable at the scales of interest for hydrological purposes. In the present study, a fraction of the uncertainty related to meteorological prediction is taken into account by implementing a multi-model forecasting approach, aimed at providing multiple precipitation scenarios driving the same hydrological model. Therefore, the estimation of that uncertainty associated with the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF, conveyed by the multi-model ensemble, can be exploited by the hydrological model, propagating the error into the hydrological forecast.

    The proposed meteo-hydrological forecasting system is implemented and tested in a real-time configuration for several episodes of intense precipitation affecting the Reno river basin, a medium-sized basin located in northern Italy (Apennines. These episodes are associated with flood events of different intensity and are representative of different meteorological configurations responsible for severe weather affecting northern Apennines.

    The simulation results show that the coupled system is promising in the prediction of discharge peaks (both in terms of amount and timing for warning purposes. The ensemble hydrological forecasts provide a range of possible flood scenarios that proved to be useful for the support of civil protection authorities in their decision.

  20. Towards a systems approach for understanding honeybee decline: a stocktaking and synthesis of existing models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becher, Matthias A; Osborne, Juliet L; Thorbek, Pernille; Kennedy, Peter J; Grimm, Volker

    2013-08-01

    The health of managed and wild honeybee colonies appears to have declined substantially in Europe and the United States over the last decade. Sustainability of honeybee colonies is important not only for honey production, but also for pollination of crops and wild plants alongside other insect pollinators. A combination of causal factors, including parasites, pathogens, land use changes and pesticide usage, are cited as responsible for the increased colony mortality.However, despite detailed knowledge of the behaviour of honeybees and their colonies, there are no suitable tools to explore the resilience mechanisms of this complex system under stress. Empirically testing all combinations of stressors in a systematic fashion is not feasible. We therefore suggest a cross-level systems approach, based on mechanistic modelling, to investigate the impacts of (and interactions between) colony and land management.We review existing honeybee models that are relevant to examining the effects of different stressors on colony growth and survival. Most of these models describe honeybee colony dynamics, foraging behaviour or honeybee - varroa mite - virus interactions.We found that many, but not all, processes within honeybee colonies, epidemiology and foraging are well understood and described in the models, but there is no model that couples in-hive dynamics and pathology with foraging dynamics in realistic landscapes. Synthesis and applications . We describe how a new integrated model could be built to simulate multifactorial impacts on the honeybee colony system, using building blocks from the reviewed models. The development of such a tool would not only highlight empirical research priorities but also provide an important forecasting tool for policy makers and beekeepers, and we list examples of relevant applications to bee disease and landscape management decisions.

  1. The evolution model of Uppsala in light of the complex adaptive systems approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rennaly Alves da Silva

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The behavioral approach to the internationalization of companies explains that the movements toward external markets occur in accordance with the increasing commitment of resources to mitigate the effects of uncertainty and reduce the perception of risk. Evidence indicates that the theories and practices developed in the domestic market may not be able to explain the reality of companies that operate in international markets. Thus, the Paradigm of Complexity presents itself as a comprehensive alternative to realize the relationships within organizations and markets. Accordingly, the aim of this theoretical paper is to analyze the evolution of the Uppsala Model between years 1975 and 2010 with the understanding of the companies in the process of internationalization as Complex Adaptive Systems, in accordance with the Model Kelly and Allison (1998. Four propositions are presented that show the links between the approaches. The most surprising is the perception that the conceptual evolution of the Uppsala Model seems to accompany the evolution of complexity levels, presented in Model Kelly and Allison.

  2. Genome to Phenome: A Systems Biology Approach to PTSD Using an Animal Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakraborty, Nabarun; Meyerhoff, James; Jett, Marti; Hammamieh, Rasha

    2017-01-01

    Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is a debilitating illness that imposes significant emotional and financial burdens on military families. The understanding of PTSD etiology remains elusive; nonetheless, it is clear that PTSD is manifested by a cluster of symptoms including hyperarousal, reexperiencing of traumatic events, and avoidance of trauma reminders. With these characteristics in mind, several rodent models have been developed eliciting PTSD-like features. Animal models with social dimensions are of particular interest, since the social context plays a major role in the development and manifestation of PTSD.For civilians, a core trauma that elicits PTSD might be characterized by a singular life-threatening event such as a car accident. In contrast, among war veterans, PTSD might be triggered by repeated threats and a cumulative psychological burden that coalesced in the combat zone. In capturing this fundamental difference, the aggressor-exposed social stress (Agg-E SS) model imposes highly threatening conspecific trauma on naïve mice repeatedly and randomly.There is abundant evidence that suggests the potential role of genetic contributions to risk factors for PTSD. Specific observations include putatively heritable attributes of the disorder, the cited cases of atypical brain morphology, and the observed neuroendocrine shifts away from normative. Taken together, these features underscore the importance of multi-omics investigations to develop a comprehensive picture. More daunting will be the task of downstream analysis with integration of these heterogeneous genotypic and phenotypic data types to deliver putative clinical biomarkers. Researchers are advocating for a systems biology approach, which has demonstrated an increasingly robust potential for integrating multidisciplinary data. By applying a systems biology approach here, we have connected the tissue-specific molecular perturbations to the behaviors displayed by mice subjected to Agg-E SS. A

  3. Computationally efficient and flexible modular modelling approach for river and urban drainage systems based on surrogate conceptual models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolfs, Vincent; Willems, Patrick

    2015-04-01

    Water managers rely increasingly on mathematical simulation models that represent individual parts of the water system, such as the river, sewer system or waste water treatment plant. The current evolution towards integral water management requires the integration of these distinct components, leading to an increased model scale and scope. Besides this growing model complexity, certain applications gained interest and importance, such as uncertainty and sensitivity analyses, auto-calibration of models and real time control. All these applications share the need for models with a very limited calculation time, either for performing a large number of simulations, or a long term simulation followed by a statistical post-processing of the results. The use of the commonly applied detailed models that solve (part of) the de Saint-Venant equations is infeasible for these applications or such integrated modelling due to several reasons, of which a too long simulation time and the inability to couple submodels made in different software environments are the main ones. Instead, practitioners must use simplified models for these purposes. These models are characterized by empirical relationships and sacrifice model detail and accuracy for increased computational efficiency. The presented research discusses the development of a flexible integral modelling platform that complies with the following three key requirements: (1) Include a modelling approach for water quantity predictions for rivers, floodplains, sewer systems and rainfall runoff routing that require a minimal calculation time; (2) A fast and semi-automatic model configuration, thereby making maximum use of data of existing detailed models and measurements; (3) Have a calculation scheme based on open source code to allow for future extensions or the coupling with other models. First, a novel and flexible modular modelling approach based on the storage cell concept was developed. This approach divides each

  4. A computational model of insect discontinuous gas exchange: A two-sensor, control systems approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grieshaber, Beverley J; Terblanche, John S

    2015-06-07

    The insect gas exchange system is characterised by branching air-filled tubes (tracheae/tracheoles) and valve-like structures in their outer integument (spiracles) which allow for a periodic gas exchange pattern known as the discontinuous gas exchange cycle (DGC). The DGC facilitates the temporal decoupling of whole animal gas exchange from cellular respiration rates and may confer several physiological benefits, which are nevertheless highly controversial (primarily reduction of cellular oxidative damage and/or respiratory water saving). The intrinsic and extrinsic factors influencing DGCs are the focus of extensive ongoing research and little consensus has been reached on the evolutionary genesis or mechanistic costs and benefits of the pattern. Despite several hypotheses and much experimental and evolutionary biology research, a mechanistic physical model, which captures various key elements of the DGC pattern, is currently lacking. Here, we present a biologically realistic computational, two-sensor DGC model (pH/carbon dioxide and oxygen setpoints) for an Orthopteran gas exchange system, and show computationally for the first time that a control system of two interacting feedback loops is capable of generating a full DGC pattern with outputs which are physiologically realistic, quantitatively matching experimental results found in this taxonomic model elsewhere. A finite-element mathematical approach is employed and various trigger sets are considered. Parameter sensitivity analyses suggest that various aspects of insect DGC are adequately captured in this model. In particular, with physiologically relevant input parameters, the full DGC pattern is induced; and the phase durations, endotracheal carbon dioxide partial pressure ranges, and pH fluctuations which arise are physically realistic. The model results support the emergent property hypothesis for the existence of DGC, and indicate that asymmetric loading and off-loading (hysteresis) in one of the sensor

  5. Impact of the Systemic Approach on Literacy Achievement of Jordanian 1st Graders at Mu'tah University Model School

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Hajaya, Nail

    2012-01-01

    This study investigates the effect of the systemic approach in literacy achievement of the first grade students at Mu'tah University's Model School. The sample (N = 45) consisted of all first grade students, who were assigned into two groups; a control group taught traditionally while the other group was exposed to the system approach during the…

  6. Basic Definitions and Concepts of Systems Approach, Mathematical Modeling and Information Technologies in Sports Science

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    А. Лопатьєв

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The objective is to systematize and adapt the basic definitions and concepts of the systems approach, mathematical modeling and information technologies to sports science. Materials and methods. The research has studied the availability of appropriate terms in shooting sports, which would meet the requirements of modern sports science. It has examined the compliance of the shooting sports training program for children and youth sports schools, the Olympic reserve specialized children and youth schools, schools of higher sports skills, and sports educational institutions with the modern requirements and principles. Research results. The paper suggests the basic definitions adapted to the requirements of technical sports and sports science. The research has thoroughly analyzed the shooting sports training program for children and youth sports schools, the Olympic reserve specialized children and youth schools, schools of higher sports skills, and sports educational institutions. The paper offers options to improve the training program in accordance with the modern tendencies of training athletes.  Conclusions. The research suggests to systematize and adapt the basic definitions and concepts of the systems approach, mathematical modeling and information technologies using the example of technical sports.

  7. Hospital distribution in a metropolitan city: assessment by a geographical information system grid modelling approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kwang-Soo Lee

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Grid models were used to assess urban hospital distribution in Seoul, the capital of South Korea. A geographical information system (GIS based analytical model was developed and applied to assess the situation in a metropolitan area with a population exceeding 10 million. Secondary data for this analysis were obtained from multiple sources: the Korean Statistical Information Service, the Korean Hospital Association and the Statistical Geographical Information System. A grid of cells measuring 1 × 1 km was superimposed on the city map and a set of variables related to population, economy, mobility and housing were identified and measured for each cell. Socio-demographic variables were included to reflect the characteristics of each area. Analytical models were then developed using GIS software with the number of hospitals as the dependent variable. Applying multiple linear regression and geographically weighted regression models, three factors (highway and major arterial road areas; number of subway entrances; and row house areas were statistically significant in explaining the variance of hospital distribution for each cell. The overall results show that GIS is a useful tool for analysing and understanding location strategies. This approach appears a useful source of information for decision-makers concerned with the distribution of hospitals and other health care centres in a city.

  8. Analysing improvements to on-street public transport systems: a mesoscopic model approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ingvardson, Jesper Bláfoss; Kornerup Jensen, Jonas; Nielsen, Otto Anker

    2017-01-01

    and other advanced public transport systems (APTS), the attractiveness of such systems depends heavily on their implementation. In the early planning stage it is advantageous to deploy simple and transparent models to evaluate possible ways of implementation. For this purpose, the present study develops...... headway time regularity and running time variability, i.e. taking into account waiting time and in-vehicle time. The approach was applied on a case study by assessing the effects of implementing segregated infrastructure and APTS elements, individually and in combination. The results showed...... that the reliability of on-street public transport operations mainly depends on APTS elements, and especially holding strategies, whereas pure infrastructure improvements induced travel time reductions. The results further suggested that synergy effects can be obtained by planning on-street public transport coherently...

  9. The Anthropology of Science Education Reform: An Alabama Model for Building an Integrated Stakeholder Systems Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denson, R. L.; Cox, G. N.

    2004-12-01

    Anthropologists are concerned with every aspect of the culture they are investigating. One of the five main branches of anthropology, socio-cultural anthropology, concerns itself with studying the relationship between behavior and culture. This paper explores the concept that changing the behavior of our culture - its beliefs and values - towards science is at the heart of science education reform. There are five institutions that socio-cultural anthropologists use to study the social organization of cultures: the educational system is only one of them. Its function - across all cultures - is to serve as a mechanism for implementing change in cultural beliefs and values. As leaders of science education reform, the Alabama model contends that we must stop the struggle with our purpose and get on with the business of leading culture change through an integrated stakeholder systems approach. This model stresses the need for the interaction of agencies other than education - including government, industry, the media and our health communities to operate in an integrated and systemic fashion to address the issues of living among a technically literate society. Twenty-five years of science education reform needs being voiced and programs being developed has not produced the desired results from within the educational system. This is too limited a focus to affect any real cultural change. It is when we acknowledge that students spend only an average of 12 percent of their life time in schools, that we can begin to ask ourselves what are our students learning the other 88 percent of their time - from their peers, their parents and the media - and what should we be doing to address this cultural crisis in these other arenas in addition to the educational system? The Alabama Math, Science and Technology Education Coalition (AMSTEC) is a non-profit 501c(3) organization operating in the state of Alabama to provide leadership in improving mathematics, science, and technology

  10. A Model for the Acceptance of Cloud Computing Technology Using DEMATEL Technique and System Dynamics Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    seyyed mohammad zargar

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Cloud computing is a new method to provide computing resources and increase computing power in organizations. Despite the many benefits this method shares, it has not been universally used because of some obstacles including security issues and has become a concern for IT managers in organization. In this paper, the general definition of cloud computing is presented. In addition, having reviewed previous studies, the researchers identified effective variables on technology acceptance and, especially, cloud computing technology. Then, using DEMATEL technique, the effectiveness and permeability of the variable were determined. The researchers also designed a model to show the existing dynamics in cloud computing technology using system dynamics approach. The validity of the model was confirmed through evaluation methods in dynamics model by using VENSIM software. Finally, based on different conditions of the proposed model, a variety of scenarios were designed. Then, the implementation of these scenarios was simulated within the proposed model. The results showed that any increase in data security, government support and user training can lead to the increase in the adoption and use of cloud computing technology.

  11. THE APPROACH TO IMMITATION DECISION-MAKING PROCESS IN SYSTEM OF MODELLING OF MILITARY OPERATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. V. Rulko

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The main requirement to imitating modeling of military operations adequacy. Proceeding from it is necessary that the behavior of modeling objects has been as much as possible approached to behavior of real objects in the same conditions of conditions or, at least, did not contradict logic of common sense and requirements of authorized documents. It creates necessity of working out of the mechanism, allowing to formalize administrative experience of commanders of corresponding levels and automatically to deduce decisions, on the basis of parameters of a current situation and preliminary set solving rules.As a rule, in decision-making process, the commander operates with difficult formalizable information at level of complex categories. Contrary to it, the object condition in modeling system is described in the form of a set of values of concrete parameters. For transformation of set of parameters of objects to parameters of higher level the method of the analysis of hierarchies is used.Thus there is the second problem demanding the permission synthesis of the device of decision-making on the basis of the received complex concepts. Use of the mechanism of an indistinct logic conclusion for this purpose is offered. In this case preference of a choice of this or that variant of behavior is set depending on character of crossing of the indistinct sets defined by the expert which functions of an accessory are constructed on axes generated before complex parameters. In quality konsekvents solving rules in advance generated strategy of behavior of modeling objects in this connection in offered algorithm actually there is no stage defuzzyfication act, and for accumulation of the conclusions the formula of algebraic association isused. The offered approach allows to carry out an automatic choice of alternative of behavior during modeling without participation of the operator.

  12. The OCoN approach to workflow modeling in object-oriented systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wirtz, G.; Weske, M.H.; Giese, H.

    2001-01-01

    Workflow management aims at modeling and executing application processes in complex technical and organizational environments. Modern information systems are often based on object-oriented design techniques, for instance, the Unified Modeling Language (UML). These systems consist of application

  13. Modeling Spring Mass System with System Dynamics Approach in Middle School Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nuhoglu, Hasret

    2008-01-01

    System Dynamics is a well formulated methodology for analyzing the components of a system including cause-effect relationships and their underlying mathematics and logic, time delays, and feedback loops. It began in the business and manufacturing world, but is now affecting education and many other disciplines. Having inspired by successful policy…

  14. Advanced Approach to Information Security Management System Model for Industrial Control System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Organizations make use of important information in day-to-day business. Protecting sensitive information is imperative and must be managed. Companies in many parts of the world protect sensitive information using the international standard known as the information security management system (ISMS). ISO 27000 series is the international standard ISMS used to protect confidentiality, integrity, and availability of sensitive information. While an ISMS based on ISO 27000 series has no particular flaws for general information systems, it is unfit to manage sensitive information for industrial control systems (ICSs) because the first priority of industrial control is safety of the system. Therefore, a new information security management system based on confidentiality, integrity, and availability as well as safety is required for ICSs. This new ISMS must be mutually exclusive of an ICS. This paper provides a new paradigm of ISMS for ICSs, which will be shown to be more suitable than the existing ISMS. PMID:25136659

  15. Advanced Approach to Information Security Management System Model for Industrial Control System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanghyun Park

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Organizations make use of important information in day-to-day business. Protecting sensitive information is imperative and must be managed. Companies in many parts of the world protect sensitive information using the international standard known as the information security management system (ISMS. ISO 27000 series is the international standard ISMS used to protect confidentiality, integrity, and availability of sensitive information. While an ISMS based on ISO 27000 series has no particular flaws for general information systems, it is unfit to manage sensitive information for industrial control systems (ICSs because the first priority of industrial control is safety of the system. Therefore, a new information security management system based on confidentiality, integrity, and availability as well as safety is required for ICSs. This new ISMS must be mutually exclusive of an ICS. This paper provides a new paradigm of ISMS for ICSs, which will be shown to be more suitable than the existing ISMS.

  16. Advanced approach to information security management system model for industrial control system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Sanghyun; Lee, Kyungho

    2014-01-01

    Organizations make use of important information in day-to-day business. Protecting sensitive information is imperative and must be managed. Companies in many parts of the world protect sensitive information using the international standard known as the information security management system (ISMS). ISO 27000 series is the international standard ISMS used to protect confidentiality, integrity, and availability of sensitive information. While an ISMS based on ISO 27000 series has no particular flaws for general information systems, it is unfit to manage sensitive information for industrial control systems (ICSs) because the first priority of industrial control is safety of the system. Therefore, a new information security management system based on confidentiality, integrity, and availability as well as safety is required for ICSs. This new ISMS must be mutually exclusive of an ICS. This paper provides a new paradigm of ISMS for ICSs, which will be shown to be more suitable than the existing ISMS.

  17. Anxiety, not anger, induces inflammatory activity: An avoidance/approach model of immune system activation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moons, Wesley G; Shields, Grant S

    2015-08-01

    Psychological stressors reliably trigger systemic inflammatory activity as indexed by levels of proinflammatory cytokines. This experiment demonstrates that one's specific emotional reaction to a stressor may be a significant determinant of whether an inflammatory reaction occurs in response to that stressor. Based on extant correlational evidence and theory, a causal approach was used to determine whether an avoidant emotion (anxiety) triggers more inflammatory activity than an approach emotion (anger). In an experimental design (N = 40), a 3-way Emotion Condition × Time × Analyte interaction revealed that a writing-based anxiety induction, but not a writing-based anger induction, increased mean levels of interferon-γ (IFN- γ) and interleukin-1β (IL-1β), but not interleukin-6 (IL-6) in oral mucous, F(2, 54) = 4.64, p = .01, ηp(²) = .15. Further, self-reported state anxiety predicted elevated levels of proinflammatory cytokines, all ΔR(²) >.06, ps emotions can differentially cause inflammatory activity and support a theoretical model explaining these effects based on the avoidance or approach motivations associated with emotions. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  18. Are Systemic Manifestations Ascribable to COPD in Smokers? A Structural Equation Modeling Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyer, Laurent; Bastuji-Garin, Sylvie; Chouaid, Christos; Housset, Bruno; Le Corvoisier, Philippe; Derumeaux, Geneviève; Boczkowski, Jorge; Maitre, Bernard; Adnot, Serge; Audureau, Etienne

    2018-06-05

    Whether the systemic manifestations observed in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) are ascribable to lung dysfunction or direct effects of smoking is in debate. Structural Equations Modeling (SEM), a causal-oriented statistical approach, could help unraveling the pathways involved, by enabling estimation of direct and indirect associations between variables. The objectives of the study was to investigate the relative impact of smoking and COPD on systemic manifestations, inflammation and telomere length. In 292 individuals (103 women; 97 smokers with COPD, 96 smokers without COPD, 99 non-smokers), we used SEM to explore the pathways between smoking (pack-years), lung disease (FEV 1 , K CO ), and the following parameters: arterial stiffness (aortic pulse wave velocity, PWV), bone mineral density (BMD), appendicular skeletal muscle mass (ASMM), grip strength, insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), creatinine clearance (eGFR), blood leukocyte telomere length and inflammatory markers (Luminex assay). All models were adjusted on age and gender. Latent variables were created for systemic inflammation (inflammatory markers) and musculoskeletal parameters (ASMM, grip strength, BMD). SEM showed that most effects of smoking were indirectly mediated by lung dysfunction: e.g. via FEV 1 on musculoskeletal factor, eGFR, HOMA-IR, PWV, telomere length, CRP, white blood cells count (WBC) and inflammation factor, and via K CO on musculoskeletal factor, eGFR and PWV. Direct effects of smoking were limited to CRP and WBC. Models had excellent fit. In conclusion, SEM highlighted the major role of COPD in the occurrence of systemic manifestations while smoking effects were mostly mediated by lung function.

  19. Establishing Approaches to Modeling the Ares I-X and Ares I Roll Control System with Free-stream Interaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pao, S. Paul; Deere, Karen A.; Abdol-Hamid, Khales S.

    2011-01-01

    Approaches were established for modeling the roll control system and analyzing the jet interactions of the activated roll control system on Ares-type configurations using the USM3D Navier-Stokes solver. Components of the modeling approach for the roll control system include a choice of turbulence models, basis for computing a dynamic equivalence of the real gas rocket exhaust flow in terms of an ideal gas, and techniques to evaluate roll control system performance for wind tunnel and flight conditions. A simplified Ares I-X configuration was used during the development phase of the roll control system modeling approach. A limited set of Navier-Stokes solutions was obtained for the purposes of this investigation and highlights of the results are included in this paper. The USM3D solutions were compared to equivalent solutions at select flow conditions from a real gas Navier- Stokes solver (Loci-CHEM) and a structured overset grid Navier-Stokes solver (OVERFLOW).

  20. Maximum Power Point Tracking Control of Photovoltaic Systems: A Polynomial Fuzzy Model-Based Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rakhshan, Mohsen; Vafamand, Navid; Khooban, Mohammad Hassan

    2018-01-01

    This paper introduces a polynomial fuzzy model (PFM)-based maximum power point tracking (MPPT) control approach to increase the performance and efficiency of the solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity generation. The proposed method relies on a polynomial fuzzy modeling, a polynomial parallel......, a direct maximum power (DMP)-based control structure is considered for MPPT. Using the PFM representation, the DMP-based control structure is formulated in terms of SOS conditions. Unlike the conventional approaches, the proposed approach does not require exploring the maximum power operational point...

  1. Modelling of cooperating robotized systems with the use of object-based approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foit, K.; Gwiazda, A.; Banas, W.; Sekala, A.; Hryniewicz, P.

    2015-11-01

    Today's robotized manufacturing systems are characterized by high efficiency. The emphasis is placed mainly on the simultaneous work of machines. It could manifest in many ways, where the most spectacular one is the cooperation of several robots, during work on the same detail. What's more, recently a dual-arm robots are used that could mimic the manipulative skills of human hands. As a result, it is often hard to deal with the situation, when it is necessary not only to maintain sufficient precision, but also the coordination and proper sequence of movements of individual robots’ arms. The successful completion of this task depends on the individual robot control systems and their respective programmed, but also on the well-functioning communication between robot controllers. A major problem in case of cooperating robots is the possibility of collision between particular links of robots’ kinematic chains. This is not a simple case, because the manufacturers of robotic systems do not disclose the details of the control algorithms, then it is hard to determine such situation. Another problem with cooperation of robots is how to inform the other units about start or completion of part of the task, so that other robots can take further actions. This paper focuses on communication between cooperating robotic units, assuming that every robot is represented by object-based model. This problem requires developing a form of communication protocol that the objects can use for collecting the information about its environment. The approach presented in the paper is not limited to the robots and could be used in a wider range, for example during modelling of the complete workcell or production line.

  2. An approach to computing discrete adjoints for MPI-parallelized models applied to Ice Sheet System Model 4.11

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Larour

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Within the framework of sea-level rise projections, there is a strong need for hindcast validation of the evolution of polar ice sheets in a way that tightly matches observational records (from radar, gravity, and altimetry observations mainly. However, the computational requirements for making hindcast reconstructions possible are severe and rely mainly on the evaluation of the adjoint state of transient ice-flow models. Here, we look at the computation of adjoints in the context of the NASA/JPL/UCI Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM, written in C++ and designed for parallel execution with MPI. We present the adaptations required in the way the software is designed and written, but also generic adaptations in the tools facilitating the adjoint computations. We concentrate on the use of operator overloading coupled with the AdjoinableMPI library to achieve the adjoint computation of the ISSM. We present a comprehensive approach to (1 carry out type changing through the ISSM, hence facilitating operator overloading, (2 bind to external solvers such as MUMPS and GSL-LU, and (3 handle MPI-based parallelism to scale the capability. We demonstrate the success of the approach by computing sensitivities of hindcast metrics such as the misfit to observed records of surface altimetry on the northeastern Greenland Ice Stream, or the misfit to observed records of surface velocities on Upernavik Glacier, central West Greenland. We also provide metrics for the scalability of the approach, and the expected performance. This approach has the potential to enable a new generation of hindcast-validated projections that make full use of the wealth of datasets currently being collected, or already collected, in Greenland and Antarctica.

  3. An approach to 3D model fusion in GIS systems and its application in a future ECDIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Tao; Zhao, Depeng; Pan, Mingyang

    2016-04-01

    Three-dimensional (3D) computer graphics technology is widely used in various areas and causes profound changes. As an information carrier, 3D models are becoming increasingly important. The use of 3D models greatly helps to improve the cartographic expression and design. 3D models are more visually efficient, quicker and easier to understand and they can express more detailed geographical information. However, it is hard to efficiently and precisely fuse 3D models in local systems. The purpose of this study is to propose an automatic and precise approach to fuse 3D models in geographic information systems (GIS). It is the basic premise for subsequent uses of 3D models in local systems, such as attribute searching, spatial analysis, and so on. The basic steps of our research are: (1) pose adjustment by principal component analysis (PCA); (2) silhouette extraction by simple mesh silhouette extraction and silhouette merger; (3) size adjustment; (4) position matching. Finally, we implement the above methods in our system Automotive Intelligent Chart (AIC) 3D Electronic Chart Display and Information Systems (ECDIS). The fusion approach we propose is a common method and each calculation step is carefully designed. This approach solves the problem of cross-platform model fusion. 3D models can be from any source. They may be stored in the local cache or retrieved from Internet, or may be manually created by different tools or automatically generated by different programs. The system can be any kind of 3D GIS system.

  4. Benefits of using a Social-Ecological Systems Approach to Conceptualize and Model Wetlands Restoration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Using a social-ecological systems (SES) perspective to examine wetland restoration helps decision-makers recognize interdependencies and relations between ecological and social components of coupled systems. Conceptual models are an invaluable tool to capture, visualize, and orga...

  5. Application of the Generic Modeling Template Approach to Unsaturated Fatty Acid Oxidation and Crystallization Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fedorova, Marina; Papadakis, Emmanouil; Meisler, Kresten Troelstrup

    2014-01-01

    In this work, a couple of applications of the template-based approach for model development are presented. The computer-aided template concept has been developed based on a model decomposition technique and has been implemented as a software tool, which provides a user-friendly interface...

  6. Root causes occurrence of low BIM adoption in Malaysia: System dynamics modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamter, Shahela; Aziz, Abdul Rashid Abdul; Zulkepli, Jafri

    2017-11-01

    The global implementation of BIM in the construction field is increasing worldwide. Due to the advantages offered by BIM, its implementation is considered important in the construction projects. Nevertheless, the Construction Industry Transformation Plan has reported that the adoption of Building Information Modelling (BIM) in Malaysia is still low and it is estimated at only 10 percent adoption amongst construction stake players. The barriers influencing the occurrence of low adoption BIM in Malaysia have been studied by some researchers. However, these researchers did not investigate the root causes which might lead to the recurring of the barriers to BIM adoption. Root causes that immediately occurrence of barriers, also known as precipitants or trigger causes. This conceptual paper developed the causal loop diagram (CLD) which presents the relationship between the perceived variables using system dynamic modelling approach. The findings revealed a novelty validated diagrams that design the holistic dynamic relationship on the root causes occurrence of low BIM adoption. Nonetheless, the diagram subject to more empirical testing for its practicability and further refinement upon more results expected to emerge as the research progresses.

  7. An Integrated Approach to Modelling the Economy-Society-Ecology System in Urbanization Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunqiang Liu

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Urbanization has become a key part of social and economic progress in the 21st Century, but achieving healthy and safe urban development has a long way to go for many developed and developing countries. Urbanization has been recognized as a complex ecosystem which is affected by economic, social, and ecological factors. With this in mind, this paper looks at many factors to first evaluate based on the matter-element (ME method and then model an Economy-Society-Ecology (ESE subsystem using a hybrid method by a fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP, and then by using the entropy method (EM to determine the relevant index weights. To avoid subjectivity when defining the model’s boundaries, the technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS is introduced. Then, a coupling coordination degree model focusing on the degree of coordination in the ESE subsystem is established. Panel data collected from 2003 to 2012 for Chengdu, China, is then simulated to analyze the development process. The results show that: (1 The quality of urbanization continues to improve and the phasic features are presented; (2 The sensitivity analysis of subsystem weight shown that it had less effect on the coupling coordinated system; (3 The coordination in the ESE subsystem has also improved. However, the development rate of the economic subsystem is greater than that of the societal and ecological subsystem. The approach used here therefore, is shown to provide a promising basis for policy-making to support healthy urban development.

  8. A regression modeling approach for studying carbonate system variability in the northern Gulf of Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Wiley; Mathis, Jeremy T.; Winsor, Peter; Statscewich, Hank; Whitledge, Terry E.

    2013-01-01

    northern Gulf of Alaska (GOA) shelf experiences carbonate system variability on seasonal and annual time scales, but little information exists to resolve higher frequency variability in this region. To resolve this variability using platforms-of-opportunity, we present multiple linear regression (MLR) models constructed from hydrographic data collected along the Northeast Pacific Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics (GLOBEC) Seward Line. The empirical algorithms predict dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and total alkalinity (TA) using observations of nitrate (NO3-), temperature, salinity and pressure from the surface to 500 m, with R2s > 0.97 and RMSE values of 11 µmol kg-1 for DIC and 9 µmol kg-1 for TA. We applied these relationships to high-resolution NO3- data sets collected during a novel 20 h glider flight and a GLOBEC mesoscale SeaSoar survey. Results from the glider flight demonstrated time/space along-isopycnal variability of aragonite saturations (Ωarag) associated with a dicothermal layer (a cold near-surface layer found in high latitude oceans) that rivaled changes seen vertically through the thermocline. The SeaSoar survey captured the uplift to aragonite saturation horizon (depth where Ωarag = 1) shoaled to a previously unseen depth in the northern GOA. This work is similar to recent studies aimed at predicting the carbonate system in continental margin settings, albeit demonstrates that a NO3--based approach can be applied to high-latitude data collected from platforms capable of high-frequency measurements.

  9. Exploring Marine Energy Potential in the UK Using a Whole Systems Modelling Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Stegman

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The key market drivers for marine energy are to reduce carbon emissions, and improve the security and sustainability of supply. There are other technologies that also meet these requirements, and therefore the marine energy market is dependent on the technology being cost effective, and competitive. The potential UK wave and tidal stream energy market is assessed using ETI’s energy systems modelling environment (ESME which uses a multi-vector approach including energy generation, demand, heat, transport, and infrastructure. This is used to identify scenarios where wave and tidal energy form part of the least-cost energy system for the UK by 2050, and will assess what Levelised Cost of Energy (LCOE reductions are required to improve the commercialization rate. The results indicate that an installed capacity of 4.9 GW of wave and 2.5 GW of tidal stream could be deployed by 2050 if the LCOE is within 4.5 and 7 p/kWh for each respective technology. If there is a step reduction to the LCOE of wave energy, however, a similar capacity of 5 GW could be deployed by 2050 at a LCOE of 11 p/kWh.

  10. Earthworms Dilong: Ancient, Inexpensive, Noncontroversial Models May Help Clarify Approaches to Integrated Medicine Emphasizing Neuroimmune Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Edwin L.; Balamurugan, Mariappan; Huang, Chih-Yang; Tsao, Clara R.; Heredia, Jesus; Tommaseo-Ponzetta, Mila; Paoletti, Maurizio G.

    2012-01-01

    Earthworms have provided ancient cultures with food and sources of medicinal cures. Ayurveda, traditional Chinese medicine (TCM), and practices in Japan, Vietnam, and Korea have focused first on earthworms as sources of food. Gradually fostering an approach to potential beneficial healing properties, there are renewed efforts through bioprospecting and evidence-based research to understand by means of rigorous investigations the mechanisms of action whether earthworms are used as food and/or as sources of potential medicinal products. Focusing on earthworms grew by serendipity from an extensive analysis of the earthworm's innate immune system. Their immune systems are replete with leukocytes and humoral products that exert credible health benefits. Their emerging functions with respect to evolution of innate immunity have long been superseded by their well-known ecological role in soil conservation. Earthworms as inexpensive, noncontroversial animal models (without ethical concerns) are not vectors of disease do not harbor parasites that threaten humans nor are they annoying pests. By recognizing their numerous ecological, environmental, and biomedical roles, substantiated by inexpensive and more comprehensive investigations, we will become more aware of their undiscovered beneficial properties. PMID:22888362

  11. Regional Balance Model of Financial Flows through Sectoral Approaches System of National Accounts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ekaterina Aleksandrovna Zaharchuk

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of the study, the results of which are reflected in this article, is the theoretical and methodological substantiation of possibilities to build a regional balance model of financial flows consistent with the principles of the construction of the System of National Accounts (SNA. The paper summarizes the international experience of building regional accounts in the SNA as well as reflects the advantages and disadvantages of the existing techniques for constructing Social Accounting Matrix. The authors have proposed an approach to build the regional balance model of financial flows, which is based on the disaggregated tables of the formation, distribution and use of the added value of territory in the framework of institutional sectors of SNA (corporations, public administration, households. Within the problem resolution of the transition of value added from industries to sectors, the authors have offered an approach to the accounting of development, distribution and use of value added within the institutional sectors of the territories. The methods of calculation are based on the publicly available information base of statistics agencies and federal services. The authors provide the scheme of the interrelations of the indicators of the regional balance model of financial flows. It allows to coordinate mutually the movement of regional resources by the sectors of «corporation», «public administration» and «households» among themselves, and cash flows of the region — by the sectors and directions of use. As a result, they form a single account of the formation and distribution of territorial financial resources, which is a regional balance model of financial flows. This matrix shows the distribution of financial resources by income sources and sectors, where the components of the formation (compensation, taxes and gross profit, distribution (transfers and payments and use (final consumption, accumulation of value added are

  12. A Model-free Approach to Fault Detection of Continuous-time Systems Based on Time Domain Data

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ping Zhang; Steven X. Ding

    2007-01-01

    In this paper, a model-free approach is presented to design an observer-based fault detection system of linear continuoustime systems based on input and output data in the time domain. The core of the approach is to directly identify parameters of the observer-based residual generator based on a numerically reliable data equation obtained by filtering and sampling the input and output signals.

  13. A Study on Influencing Factors of Knowledge Management Systems Adoption: Models Comparison Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Mei-Chun Yeh; Ming-Shu Yuan

    2007-01-01

    Using Linear Structural Relation model (LISREL model) as analysis method and technology acceptance model and decomposed theory of planned behavior as research foundation, this study approachesmainly from the angle of behavioral intention to examine the influential factors of 421 employees adopting knowledge management systems and in the meantime to compare the two method models mentioned on the top. According to the research, there is no, in comparison with technology acceptance model anddeco...

  14. Developing a New Integrated Model to improve the using of Classical Approach in Designing Management Information Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Mohammad M M Abu Omar; Khairul Anuar Abdullah

    2015-01-01

    Management information system (MIS) is used to solve management problems in the practical life, the designing and building of the management information systems is done by using one of the systems development methodologies. Classical approach is one of these methodologies which still suffer from some critical problems when it is used in designing and building the management information systems, it consumes more time and cost during its life cycle. This paper develops a new integrated model to...

  15. Model approach for simulating the thermodynamic behavior of the MFTF cryogenic cooling systems - a status report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sutton, S.B.; Stein, W.; Reitter, T.A.; Hindmarsh, A.C.

    1983-01-01

    A numerical model for calculating the thermodynamic behavior of the MFTF-B cryogenic cooling system is described. Nine component types are discussed with governing equations given. The algorithm for solving the coupled set of algebraic and ordinary differential equations is described. The model and its application to the MFTF-B cryogenic cooling system has not been possible due to lack of funding

  16. Towards Ocean Grazer's Modular Power Take-Off System Modeling : A Port-Hamiltonian Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Barradas-Berglind, J. J.; Muñoz Arias, M.; Wei, Y.; Prins, W.A.; Vakis, A.I.; Jayawardhana, B.; Dochain, Denis; Henrion, Didier; Peaucelle, Dimitri

    This paper presents a modular modeling framework for the Ocean Grazer's Power Take-Off (PTO) system, which operates as an array of point-absorber type devices connected to a hydraulic system. The modeling is based on the port-Hamiltonian (PH) framework that enables energy-based analysis and control

  17. Towards representing human behavior and decision making in Earth system models - an overview of techniques and approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller-Hansen, Finn; Schlüter, Maja; Mäs, Michael; Donges, Jonathan F.; Kolb, Jakob J.; Thonicke, Kirsten; Heitzig, Jobst

    2017-11-01

    Today, humans have a critical impact on the Earth system and vice versa, which can generate complex feedback processes between social and ecological dynamics. Integrating human behavior into formal Earth system models (ESMs), however, requires crucial modeling assumptions about actors and their goals, behavioral options, and decision rules, as well as modeling decisions regarding human social interactions and the aggregation of individuals' behavior. Here, we review existing modeling approaches and techniques from various disciplines and schools of thought dealing with human behavior at different levels of decision making. We demonstrate modelers' often vast degrees of freedom but also seek to make modelers aware of the often crucial consequences of seemingly innocent modeling assumptions. After discussing which socioeconomic units are potentially important for ESMs, we compare models of individual decision making that correspond to alternative behavioral theories and that make diverse modeling assumptions about individuals' preferences, beliefs, decision rules, and foresight. We review approaches to model social interaction, covering game theoretic frameworks, models of social influence, and network models. Finally, we discuss approaches to studying how the behavior of individuals, groups, and organizations can aggregate to complex collective phenomena, discussing agent-based, statistical, and representative-agent modeling and economic macro-dynamics. We illustrate the main ingredients of modeling techniques with examples from land-use dynamics as one of the main drivers of environmental change bridging local to global scales.

  18. A Systems Modeling Approach to Forecast Corn Economic Optimum Nitrogen Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laila A. Puntel

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Historically crop models have been used to evaluate crop yield responses to nitrogen (N rates after harvest when it is too late for the farmers to make in-season adjustments. We hypothesize that the use of a crop model as an in-season forecast tool will improve current N decision-making. To explore this, we used the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM calibrated with long-term experimental data for central Iowa, USA (16-years in continuous corn and 15-years in soybean-corn rotation combined with actual weather data up to a specific crop stage and historical weather data thereafter. The objectives were to: (1 evaluate the accuracy and uncertainty of corn yield and economic optimum N rate (EONR predictions at four forecast times (planting time, 6th and 12th leaf, and silking phenological stages; (2 determine whether the use of analogous historical weather years based on precipitation and temperature patterns as opposed to using a 35-year dataset could improve the accuracy of the forecast; and (3 quantify the value added by the crop model in predicting annual EONR and yields using the site-mean EONR and the yield at the EONR to benchmark predicted values. Results indicated that the mean corn yield predictions at planting time (R2 = 0.77 using 35-years of historical weather was close to the observed and predicted yield at maturity (R2 = 0.81. Across all forecasting times, the EONR predictions were more accurate in corn-corn than soybean-corn rotation (relative root mean square error, RRMSE, of 25 vs. 45%, respectively. At planting time, the APSIM model predicted the direction of optimum N rates (above, below or at average site-mean EONR in 62% of the cases examined (n = 31 with an average error range of ±38 kg N ha−1 (22% of the average N rate. Across all forecast times, prediction error of EONR was about three times higher than yield predictions. The use of the 35-year weather record was better than using selected historical weather

  19. A Systems Modeling Approach to Forecast Corn Economic Optimum Nitrogen Rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puntel, Laila A.; Sawyer, John E.; Barker, Daniel W.; Thorburn, Peter J.; Castellano, Michael J.; Moore, Kenneth J.; VanLoocke, Andrew; Heaton, Emily A.; Archontoulis, Sotirios V.

    2018-01-01

    Historically crop models have been used to evaluate crop yield responses to nitrogen (N) rates after harvest when it is too late for the farmers to make in-season adjustments. We hypothesize that the use of a crop model as an in-season forecast tool will improve current N decision-making. To explore this, we used the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) calibrated with long-term experimental data for central Iowa, USA (16-years in continuous corn and 15-years in soybean-corn rotation) combined with actual weather data up to a specific crop stage and historical weather data thereafter. The objectives were to: (1) evaluate the accuracy and uncertainty of corn yield and economic optimum N rate (EONR) predictions at four forecast times (planting time, 6th and 12th leaf, and silking phenological stages); (2) determine whether the use of analogous historical weather years based on precipitation and temperature patterns as opposed to using a 35-year dataset could improve the accuracy of the forecast; and (3) quantify the value added by the crop model in predicting annual EONR and yields using the site-mean EONR and the yield at the EONR to benchmark predicted values. Results indicated that the mean corn yield predictions at planting time (R2 = 0.77) using 35-years of historical weather was close to the observed and predicted yield at maturity (R2 = 0.81). Across all forecasting times, the EONR predictions were more accurate in corn-corn than soybean-corn rotation (relative root mean square error, RRMSE, of 25 vs. 45%, respectively). At planting time, the APSIM model predicted the direction of optimum N rates (above, below or at average site-mean EONR) in 62% of the cases examined (n = 31) with an average error range of ±38 kg N ha−1 (22% of the average N rate). Across all forecast times, prediction error of EONR was about three times higher than yield predictions. The use of the 35-year weather record was better than using selected historical weather years

  20. A Systems Modeling Approach to Forecast Corn Economic Optimum Nitrogen Rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puntel, Laila A; Sawyer, John E; Barker, Daniel W; Thorburn, Peter J; Castellano, Michael J; Moore, Kenneth J; VanLoocke, Andrew; Heaton, Emily A; Archontoulis, Sotirios V

    2018-01-01

    Historically crop models have been used to evaluate crop yield responses to nitrogen (N) rates after harvest when it is too late for the farmers to make in-season adjustments. We hypothesize that the use of a crop model as an in-season forecast tool will improve current N decision-making. To explore this, we used the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) calibrated with long-term experimental data for central Iowa, USA (16-years in continuous corn and 15-years in soybean-corn rotation) combined with actual weather data up to a specific crop stage and historical weather data thereafter. The objectives were to: (1) evaluate the accuracy and uncertainty of corn yield and economic optimum N rate (EONR) predictions at four forecast times (planting time, 6th and 12th leaf, and silking phenological stages); (2) determine whether the use of analogous historical weather years based on precipitation and temperature patterns as opposed to using a 35-year dataset could improve the accuracy of the forecast; and (3) quantify the value added by the crop model in predicting annual EONR and yields using the site-mean EONR and the yield at the EONR to benchmark predicted values. Results indicated that the mean corn yield predictions at planting time ( R 2 = 0.77) using 35-years of historical weather was close to the observed and predicted yield at maturity ( R 2 = 0.81). Across all forecasting times, the EONR predictions were more accurate in corn-corn than soybean-corn rotation (relative root mean square error, RRMSE, of 25 vs. 45%, respectively). At planting time, the APSIM model predicted the direction of optimum N rates (above, below or at average site-mean EONR) in 62% of the cases examined ( n = 31) with an average error range of ±38 kg N ha -1 (22% of the average N rate). Across all forecast times, prediction error of EONR was about three times higher than yield predictions. The use of the 35-year weather record was better than using selected historical weather

  1. Non-parametric identification of multivariable systems : a local rational modeling approach with application to a vibration isolation benchmark

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Voorhoeve, R.J.; van der Maas, A.; Oomen, T.A.J.

    2018-01-01

    Frequency response function (FRF) identification is often used as a basis for control systems design and as a starting point for subsequent parametric system identification. The aim of this paper is to develop a multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) local parametric modeling approach for FRF

  2. A State-Based Modeling Approach for Efficient Performance Evaluation of Embedded System Architectures at Transaction Level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anthony Barreteau

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract models are necessary to assist system architects in the evaluation process of hardware/software architectures and to cope with the still increasing complexity of embedded systems. Efficient methods are required to create reliable models of system architectures and to allow early performance evaluation and fast exploration of the design space. In this paper, we present a specific transaction level modeling approach for performance evaluation of hardware/software architectures. This approach relies on a generic execution model that exhibits light modeling effort. Created models are used to evaluate by simulation expected processing and memory resources according to various architectures. The proposed execution model relies on a specific computation method defined to improve the simulation speed of transaction level models. The benefits of the proposed approach are highlighted through two case studies. The first case study is a didactic example illustrating the modeling approach. In this example, a simulation speed-up by a factor of 7,62 is achieved by using the proposed computation method. The second case study concerns the analysis of a communication receiver supporting part of the physical layer of the LTE protocol. In this case study, architecture exploration is led in order to improve the allocation of processing functions.

  3. Model prototype of information support system for operator approaches and realization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samoilov, O.B.; Galushkin, V.A.; Drumov, V.V.; Kurachenkov, A.V.; Shashkin, S.L.; Mordvincev, V.M.

    1998-01-01

    In connection with the appearance in a structure of the national regulatory documentation on safety of the requirement about availability of information support systems, the works on development of such system are necessary for making a decision of a question on start-up each NPP. It was developed a model - prototype of the system for Voronezh AST (VAST). Main principles of this model are described in the present report. Besides, similar works on other types of NPPs are carried out. (author)

  4. Systems approach modelling of the interactive effects of fisheries, jellyfish and tourism in the Catalan coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomlinson, Benjamin; Maynou, Francesc; Sabatés, Ana; Fuentes, Verónica; Canepa, Antonio; Sastre, Sergio

    2018-02-01

    Despite the large fluctuation in annual recordings of gelatinous plankton along the Catalan coast in the north western Mediterranean and the lack of long term data sets, there is a general perception that jellyfish abundances are increasing. Local authorities are concerned about the stranding events and arrivals of jellyfish to beaches and believe it could reduce the recreational appeal of the beaches - a valuable ecosystem service for the regional tourist industry. Previous studies also demonstrate the predation of jellyfish (Pelagia noctiluca ephyrae) upon some small pelagic fish larvae (Engraulis encrasicolus). Small pelagics are the principal source of revenue for the local fisheries. A social-ecological model was created in order to capture the effects of changes in abundance of P. noctiluca upon the local fisheries, the tourist industry and the wider economy. The following sub-models were constructed and connected following the systems approach framework methodology: an age-class based fisheries model; a jellyfish population matrix model; a jellyfish stranding model; a study on the impact of jellyfish strandings on beach users; and an economic input-output matrix. Various future scenarios for different abundances of jellyfish blooms were run. The "Expected blooms" scenario is similar to the quantity and size of blooms for 2000-2010. For a hypothetical "No blooms" scenario (standard background level of jellyfish but without any blooms) landings would increase by around 294 tonnes (5.1%) per year (averaged over 10 years) or approximately 0.19 M€ in profits per year (4.5%), and strandings would decrease by 49%. In a "Frequent blooms" scenario, landings would decrease by around 147 tonnes per year (2.5%) and decrease profits by 0.10 M€ per year (2.3%), and strandings would increase by 32%. Given the changes that these scenarios would cause on the regional gross domestic product and employment, this study concludes that the overall impact of either of these

  5. Agent autonomy approach to probabilistic physics-of-failure modeling of complex dynamic systems with interacting failure mechanisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gromek, Katherine Emily

    A novel computational and inference framework of the physics-of-failure (PoF) reliability modeling for complex dynamic systems has been established in this research. The PoF-based reliability models are used to perform a real time simulation of system failure processes, so that the system level reliability modeling would constitute inferences from checking the status of component level reliability at any given time. The "agent autonomy" concept is applied as a solution method for the system-level probabilistic PoF-based (i.e. PPoF-based) modeling. This concept originated from artificial intelligence (AI) as a leading intelligent computational inference in modeling of multi agents systems (MAS). The concept of agent autonomy in the context of reliability modeling was first proposed by M. Azarkhail [1], where a fundamentally new idea of system representation by autonomous intelligent agents for the purpose of reliability modeling was introduced. Contribution of the current work lies in the further development of the agent anatomy concept, particularly the refined agent classification within the scope of the PoF-based system reliability modeling, new approaches to the learning and the autonomy properties of the intelligent agents, and modeling interacting failure mechanisms within the dynamic engineering system. The autonomous property of intelligent agents is defined as agent's ability to self-activate, deactivate or completely redefine their role in the analysis. This property of agents and the ability to model interacting failure mechanisms of the system elements makes the agent autonomy fundamentally different from all existing methods of probabilistic PoF-based reliability modeling. 1. Azarkhail, M., "Agent Autonomy Approach to Physics-Based Reliability Modeling of Structures and Mechanical Systems", PhD thesis, University of Maryland, College Park, 2007.

  6. A new modeling approach to the safety evaluation of N-modular redundant computer systems in presence of imperfect maintenance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flammini, Francesco; Marrone, Stefano; Mazzocca, Nicola; Vittorini, Valeria

    2009-01-01

    A large number of safety-critical control systems are based on N-modular redundant architectures, using majority voters on the outputs of independent computation units. In order to assess the compliance of these architectures with international safety standards, the frequency of hazardous failures must be analyzed by developing and solving proper formal models. Furthermore, the impact of maintenance faults has to be considered, since imperfect maintenance may degrade the safety integrity level of the system. In this paper, we present both a failure model for voting architectures based on Bayesian networks and a maintenance model based on continuous time Markov chains, and we propose to combine them according to a compositional multiformalism modeling approach in order to analyze the impact of imperfect maintenance on the system safety. We also show how the proposed approach promotes the reuse and the interchange of models as well the interchange of solving tools.

  7. An investigation of a professional development model in science education: A systems approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Glenda Love

    The Mathematics and Science Cooperative (MSEC), a four year longevity model of professional development education for in-service teachers, is closely aligned with the spirit and tenets of science for all. This partnership of a university, a school district, and a higher education coordinating board, seeks to promote and improve science and mathematics achievement for underserved and underrepresented populations. This study sought to explore how this model affects elementary in-service teachers' feelings of self-efficacy toward science and science teaching. Interactive Qualitative Research (IQR), a systems approach of natural inquiry, was used for this study. Theory is grounded in the data collected and analyzed through group processes. A core group of teachers, key teachers representing grades one through six and lead teachers the campus contact representatives, received professional development education from university professors in semi-monthly after school workshops and in a three week summer science institute held on-site. In this study, (N = 18) key and lead teachers participated in a focus group, a picture board exercise (a projective type exercise), interviews, and classroom observations. Within the system of the MSEC professional development model, cause and effect relationships among eleven phenomena were identified which had the greatest impact on the teachers' feelings of self-efficacy and science teaching practices. Changed teaching practices were indicated by inquiry-based science lessons with students as active learners. Five principles of self-efficacy: (1) efficacy; (2) goals setting; (3) values; (4) expectancy; and, (5) control beliefs were used to evaluate efficacy beliefs. Findings from the data collection and analysis identified two phenomena, the university instructional leadership role and teacher time commitments and time constraints, both internally and externally imposed, which seemed to have the greatest impact on elementary teachers

  8. Alternative approaches to reliability modeling of a multiple engineered barrier system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ananda, M.M.A.; Singh, A.K.

    1994-01-01

    The lifetime of the engineered barrier system used for containment of high-level radioactive waste will significantly impact the total performance of a geological repository facility. Currently two types of designs are under consideration for an engineered barrier system, single engineered barrier system and multiple engineered barrier system. Multiple engineered barrier system consists of several metal barriers and the waste form (cladding). Some recent work show that a significant improvement of performance can be achieved by utilizing multiple engineered barrier systems. Considering sequential failures for each barrier, we model the reliability of the multiple engineered barrier system. Weibull and exponential lifetime distributions are used through out the analysis. Furthermore, the number of failed engineered barrier systems in a repository at a given time is modeled using a poisson approximation

  9. Beyond GLMs: a generative mixture modeling approach to neural system identification.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucas Theis

    Full Text Available Generalized linear models (GLMs represent a popular choice for the probabilistic characterization of neural spike responses. While GLMs are attractive for their computational tractability, they also impose strong assumptions and thus only allow for a limited range of stimulus-response relationships to be discovered. Alternative approaches exist that make only very weak assumptions but scale poorly to high-dimensional stimulus spaces. Here we seek an approach which can gracefully interpolate between the two extremes. We extend two frequently used special cases of the GLM-a linear and a quadratic model-by assuming that the spike-triggered and non-spike-triggered distributions can be adequately represented using Gaussian mixtures. Because we derive the model from a generative perspective, its components are easy to interpret as they correspond to, for example, the spike-triggered distribution and the interspike interval distribution. The model is able to capture complex dependencies on high-dimensional stimuli with far fewer parameters than other approaches such as histogram-based methods. The added flexibility comes at the cost of a non-concave log-likelihood. We show that in practice this does not have to be an issue and the mixture-based model is able to outperform generalized linear and quadratic models.

  10. Modeling vapor pressures of solvent systems with and without a salt effect: An extension of the LSER approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Senol, Aynur

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A new polynomial vapor pressure approach for pure solvents is presented. • Solvation models reproduce the vapor pressure data within a 4% mean error. • A concentration-basis vapor pressure model is also implemented on relevant systems. • The reliability of existing models was analyzed using log-ratio objective function. - Abstract: A new polynomial vapor pressure approach for pure solvents is presented. The model is incorporated into the LSER (linear solvation energy relation) based solvation model framework and checked for consistency in reproducing experimental vapor pressures of salt-containing solvent systems. The developed two structural forms of the generalized solvation model (Senol, 2013) provide a relatively accurate description of the salting effect on vapor pressure of (solvent + salt) systems. The equilibrium data spanning vapor pressures of eighteen (solvent + salt) and three (solvent (1) + solvent (2) + salt) systems have been subjected to establish the basis for the model reliability analysis using a log-ratio objective function. The examined vapor pressure relations reproduce the observed performance relatively accurately, yielding the overall design factors of 1.084, 1.091 and 1.052 for the integrated property-basis solvation model (USMIP), reduced property-basis solvation model and concentration-dependent model, respectively. Both the integrated property-basis and reduced property-basis solvation models were able to simulate satisfactorily the vapor pressure data of a binary solvent mixture involving a salt, yielding an overall mean error of 5.2%

  11. Investment in the future electricity system - An agent-based modelling approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kraan, O.; Kramer, G. J.; Nikolic, I.

    2018-01-01

    Now that renewable technologies are both technically and commercially mature, the imperfect rational behaviour of investors becomes a critical factor in the future success of the energy transition. Here, we take an agent-based approach to model investor decision making in the electricity sector

  12. A Multi-State Physics Modeling approach for the reliability assessment of Nuclear Power Plants piping systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Di Maio, Francesco; Colli, Davide; Zio, Enrico; Tao, Liu; Tong, Jiejuan

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We model piping systems degradation of Nuclear Power Plants under uncertainty. • We use Multi-State Physics Modeling (MSPM) to describe a continuous degradation process. • We propose a Monte Carlo (MC) method for calculating time-dependent transition rates. • We apply MSPM to a piping system undergoing thermal fatigue. - Abstract: A Multi-State Physics Modeling (MSPM) approach is here proposed for degradation modeling and failure probability quantification of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) piping systems. This approach integrates multi-state modeling to describe the degradation process by transitions among discrete states (e.g., no damage, micro-crack, flaw, rupture, etc.), with physics modeling by (physic) equations to describe the continuous degradation process within the states. We propose a Monte Carlo (MC) simulation method for the evaluation of the time-dependent transition rates between the states of the MSPM. Accountancy is given for the uncertainty in the parameters and external factors influencing the degradation process. The proposed modeling approach is applied to a benchmark problem of a piping system of a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) undergoing thermal fatigue. The results are compared with those obtained by a continuous-time homogeneous Markov Chain Model

  13. Nurses' Satisfaction With Using Nursing Information Systems From Technology Acceptance Model and Information Systems Success Model Perspectives: A Reductionist Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Hsien-Cheng

    2017-02-01

    Nursing information systems can enhance nursing practice and the efficiency and quality of administrative affairs within the nursing department and thus have been widely considered for implementation. Close alignment of human-computer interaction can advance optimal clinical performance with the use of information systems. However, a lack of introduction of the concept of alignment between users' perceptions and technological functionality has caused dissatisfaction, as shown in the existing literature. This study provides insight into the alignment between nurses' perceptions and how technological functionality affects their satisfaction with Nursing Information System use through a reductionist perspective of alignment. This cross-sectional study collected data from 531 registered nurses in Taiwan. The results indicated that "perceived usefulness in system quality alignment," "perceived usefulness in information quality alignment," "perceived ease of use in system quality alignment," "perceived ease of use in information quality alignment," and "perceived ease of use in service quality alignment" have significantly affected nurses' satisfaction with Nursing Information System use. However, "perceived usefulness in service quality alignment" had no significant effect on nurses' satisfaction. This study also provides some meaningful implications for theoretical and practical aspects of design.

  14. Linking Economic Value Added, Direct Costing, and the Lean Thinking to the Balanced Scorecard in a System Dynamics Modelling Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Steen; Nielsen, Erland Hejn

    Review, July-August, 2007], provide evidence that companies fail to see the possible benefits of combining and integrating several accounting practices into a single framework. Design/methodology/approach - We use a System Dynamics Modelling approach to the BSC-thinking. The BSC model includes the five...... Purpose - To show how three practices normally applied separately can be linked to support the strategy evaluation and the performance measurement in the balanced scorecard. Recent studies, e.g. Kaplan and Norton [Using the Balanced Scorecard as a Strategic Management System, Harvard Business...

  15. TREATMENT OF VOLATILE ORGANIC COMPOUNDS IN WASTE GASES USING A TRICKLING BIOFILTER SYSTEM: A MODELING APPROACH

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biofiltration represents a novel strategy for controlling VOC emissions from a variety of industrial processes. As commercial applications of these systems increase, sophisticated theoretical models will be useful in establishing design criteria for providing insights into impor...

  16. Model based approach to Study the Impact of Biofuels on the Sustainability of an Ecological System

    Science.gov (United States)

    The importance and complexity of sustainability has been well recognized and a formal study of sustainability based on system theory approaches is imperative as many of the relationships between various components of the ecosystem could be nonlinear, intertwined and non intuitive...

  17. A data integration approach for cell cycle analysis oriented to model simulation in systems biology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mosca Ettore

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The cell cycle is one of the biological processes most frequently investigated in systems biology studies and it involves the knowledge of a large number of genes and networks of protein interactions. A deep knowledge of the molecular aspect of this biological process can contribute to making cancer research more accurate and innovative. In this context the mathematical modelling of the cell cycle has a relevant role to quantify the behaviour of each component of the systems. The mathematical modelling of a biological process such as the cell cycle allows a systemic description that helps to highlight some features such as emergent properties which could be hidden when the analysis is performed only from a reductionism point of view. Moreover, in modelling complex systems, a complete annotation of all the components is equally important to understand the interaction mechanism inside the network: for this reason data integration of the model components has high relevance in systems biology studies. Description In this work, we present a resource, the Cell Cycle Database, intended to support systems biology analysis on the Cell Cycle process, based on two organisms, yeast and mammalian. The database integrates information about genes and proteins involved in the cell cycle process, stores complete models of the interaction networks and allows the mathematical simulation over time of the quantitative behaviour of each component. To accomplish this task, we developed, a web interface for browsing information related to cell cycle genes, proteins and mathematical models. In this framework, we have implemented a pipeline which allows users to deal with the mathematical part of the models, in order to solve, using different variables, the ordinary differential equation systems that describe the biological process. Conclusion This integrated system is freely available in order to support systems biology research on the cell cycle and

  18. Prospective and participatory integrated assessment of agricultural systems from farm to regional scales: Comparison of three modeling approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delmotte, Sylvestre; Lopez-Ridaura, Santiago; Barbier, Jean-Marc; Wery, Jacques

    2013-11-15

    Evaluating the impacts of the development of alternative agricultural systems, such as organic or low-input cropping systems, in the context of an agricultural region requires the use of specific tools and methodologies. They should allow a prospective (using scenarios), multi-scale (taking into account the field, farm and regional level), integrated (notably multicriteria) and participatory assessment, abbreviated PIAAS (for Participatory Integrated Assessment of Agricultural System). In this paper, we compare the possible contribution to PIAAS of three modeling approaches i.e. Bio-Economic Modeling (BEM), Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) and statistical Land-Use/Land Cover Change (LUCC) models. After a presentation of each approach, we analyze their advantages and drawbacks, and identify their possible complementarities for PIAAS. Statistical LUCC modeling is a suitable approach for multi-scale analysis of past changes and can be used to start discussion about the futures with stakeholders. BEM and ABM approaches have complementary features for scenarios assessment at different scales. While ABM has been widely used for participatory assessment, BEM has been rarely used satisfactorily in a participatory manner. On the basis of these results, we propose to combine these three approaches in a framework targeted to PIAAS. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. A Geographic Information System approach to modeling nutrient and sediment transport

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Levine, D.A. [Automated Sciences Group, Inc., Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Hunsaker, C.T.; Beauchamp, J.J. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Timmins, S.P. [Analysas Corp., Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    1993-02-01

    The objective of this study was to develop a water quality model to quantify nonpoint-source (NPS) pollution that uses a geographic information system (GIS) to link statistical modeling of nutrient and sediment delivery with the spatial arrangement of the parameters that drive the model. The model predicts annual nutrient and sediment loading and was developed, calibrated, and tested on 12 watersheds within the Lake Ray Roberts drainage basin in north Texas. Three physiographic regions are represented by these watersheds, and model success, as measured by the accuracy of load estimates, was compared within and across these regions.

  20. Toward a Comprehensive Model of Antisocial Development: A Dynamic Systems Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granic, Isabela; Patterson, Gerald R.

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to develop a preliminary comprehensive model of antisocial development based on dynamic systems principles. The model is built on the foundations of behavioral research on coercion theory. First, the authors focus on the principles of multistability, feedback, and nonlinear causality to reconceptualize real-time…

  1. Robust Synchronization Models for Presentation System Using SMIL-Driven Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asnawi, Rustam; Ahmad, Wan Fatimah Wan; Rambli, Dayang Rohaya Awang

    2013-01-01

    Current common Presentation System (PS) models are slide based oriented and lack synchronization analysis either with temporal or spatial constraints. Such models, in fact, tend to lead to synchronization problems, particularly on parallel synchronization with spatial constraints between multimedia element presentations. However, parallel…

  2. Design of a Discrete Tracking Controller for a Magnetic Levitation System: A Nonlinear Rational Model Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Gómez-Salas

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This work proposes a discrete-time nonlinear rational approximate model for the unstable magnetic levitation system. Based on this model and as an application of the input-output linearization technique, a discrete-time tracking control design will be derived using the corresponding classical state space representation of the model. A simulation example illustrates the efficiency of the proposed methodology.

  3. Approach to constructing a model for evaluating the performance quality of a complex hierarchic system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bykova, E V

    1982-01-01

    The author proposes an interactive method employing a semantic network representation of knowledge. Her model operates in 2 stages: intrinsic evaluation of the quality of the system; and analysis of the functioning of the system, which accumulates expert experience in an adaptive dialogue process. 6 references.

  4. Identification of hidden failures in control systems: a functional modelling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jalashgar, A.; Modarres, M.

    1996-01-01

    This paper presents a model which encompasses knowledge about a process control system's functionalities in a function-oriented failure analysis task. The technique called Hybrid MFM-GTST, mainly utilizes two different function - oriented methods (MFM and GTST) to identify all functions of the system components, and hence possible sources of hidden failures in process control systems. Hidden failures are referred to incipient failures within the system that in long term may lead to loss of major functions. The features of the method are described and demonstrated by using an example of a process control system

  5. Modeling of short-term mechanism of arterial pressure control in the cardiovascular system: object-oriented and acausal approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulhánek, Tomáš; Kofránek, Jiří; Mateják, Marek

    2014-11-01

    This letter introduces an alternative approach to modeling the cardiovascular system with a short-term control mechanism published in Computers in Biology and Medicine, Vol. 47 (2014), pp. 104-112. We recommend using abstract components on a distinct physical level, separating the model into hydraulic components, subsystems of the cardiovascular system and individual subsystems of the control mechanism and scenario. We recommend utilizing an acausal modeling feature of Modelica language, which allows model variables to be expressed declaratively. Furthermore, the Modelica tool identifies which are the dependent and independent variables upon compilation. An example of our approach is introduced on several elementary components representing the hydraulic resistance to fluid flow and the elastic response of the vessel, among others. The introduced model implementation can be more reusable and understandable for the general scientific community. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. A managerial approach to NASA's cultural changes open-system model

    OpenAIRE

    Long, Nicholas.

    2007-01-01

    This project describes NASA's culture during two important time periods (1958-1972) and (1996-2004) and explains its relative fit with its system components-task, people, resources, and structure. The open-system model is used to explain how system components affect culture and how culture affects them. During the first period (1958- 1972), NASA was established and it landed the first man on the moon, a remarkable accomplishment given the advances in science and technology required to com...

  7. A simplified approach to control system specification and design using domain modelling and mapping

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ludgate, G.A.

    1992-01-01

    Recent developments in the field of accelerator-domain and computer-domain modelling have led to a better understanding of the 'art' of control system specification and design. It now appears possible to 'compile' a control system specification to produce the architectural design. The information required by the 'compiler' is discussed and one hardware optimization algorithm presented. The desired characteristics of the hardware and software components of a distributed control system architecture are discussed and the shortcomings of some commercial products. (author)

  8. Toward a Model-Based Approach for Flight System Fault Protection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Day, John; Meakin, Peter; Murray, Alex

    2012-01-01

    Use SysML/UML to describe the physical structure of the system This part of the model would be shared with other teams - FS Systems Engineering, Planning & Execution, V&V, Operations, etc., in an integrated model-based engineering environment Use the UML Profile mechanism, defining Stereotypes to precisely express the concepts of the FP domain This extends the UML/SysML languages to contain our FP concepts Use UML/SysML, along with our profile, to capture FP concepts and relationships in the model Generate typical FP engineering products (the FMECA, Fault Tree, MRD, V&V Matrices)

  9. A Decentralized Approach to the Formulation of Hypotheses: A Hierarchical Structural Model for a Prion Self-Assembled System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Mingyang; Zhang, Feifei; Song, Chao; Shi, Pengfei; Zhu, Jin

    2016-07-01

    Innovation in hypotheses is a key transformative driver for scientific development. The conventional centralized hypothesis formulation approach, where a dominant hypothesis is typically derived from a primary phenomenon, can, inevitably, impose restriction on the range of conceivable experiments and legitimate hypotheses, and ultimately impede understanding of the system of interest. We report herein the proposal of a decentralized approach for the formulation of hypotheses, through initial preconception-free phenomenon accumulation and subsequent reticular logical reasoning processes. The two-step approach can provide an unbiased, panoramic view of the system and as such should enable the generation of a set of more coherent and therefore plausible hypotheses. As a proof-of-concept demonstration of the utility of this open-ended approach, a hierarchical model has been developed for a prion self-assembled system, allowing insight into hitherto elusive static and dynamic features associated with this intriguing structure.

  10. Optimal inverse magnetorheological damper modeling using shuffled frog-leaping algorithm–based adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiufang Lin

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Magnetorheological dampers have become prominent semi-active control devices for vibration mitigation of structures which are subjected to severe loads. However, the damping force cannot be controlled directly due to the inherent nonlinear characteristics of the magnetorheological dampers. Therefore, for fully exploiting the capabilities of the magnetorheological dampers, one of the challenging aspects is to develop an accurate inverse model which can appropriately predict the input voltage to control the damping force. In this article, a hybrid modeling strategy combining shuffled frog-leaping algorithm and adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system is proposed to model the inverse dynamic characteristics of the magnetorheological dampers for improving the modeling accuracy. The shuffled frog-leaping algorithm is employed to optimize the premise parameters of the adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system while the consequent parameters are tuned by a least square estimation method, here known as shuffled frog-leaping algorithm-based adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system approach. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, the inverse modeling results based on the shuffled frog-leaping algorithm-based adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system approach are compared with those based on the adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system and genetic algorithm–based adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system approaches. Analysis of variance test is carried out to statistically compare the performance of the proposed methods and the results demonstrate that the shuffled frog-leaping algorithm-based adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system strategy outperforms the other two methods in terms of modeling (training accuracy and checking accuracy.

  11. The Performance of Structure-Controller Coupled Systems Analysis Using Probabilistic Evaluation and Identification Model Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mosbeh R. Kaloop

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluates the performance of passively controlled steel frame building under dynamic loads using time series analysis. A novel application is utilized for the time and frequency domains evaluation to analyze the behavior of controlling systems. In addition, the autoregressive moving average (ARMA neural networks are employed to identify the performance of the controller system. Three passive vibration control devices are utilized in this study, namely, tuned mass damper (TMD, tuned liquid damper (TLD, and tuned liquid column damper (TLCD. The results show that the TMD control system is a more reliable controller than TLD and TLCD systems in terms of vibration mitigation. The probabilistic evaluation and identification model showed that the probability analysis and ARMA neural network model are suitable to evaluate and predict the response of coupled building-controller systems.

  12. A systems approach to obesity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartsch, Sarah M.; Mui, Yeeli; Haidari, Leila A.; Spiker, Marie L.; Gittelsohn, Joel

    2017-01-01

    Obesity has become a truly global epidemic, affecting all age groups, all populations, and countries of all income levels. To date, existing policies and interventions have not reversed these trends, suggesting that innovative approaches are needed to transform obesity prevention and control. There are a number of indications that the obesity epidemic is a systems problem, as opposed to a simple problem with a linear cause-and-effect relationship. What may be needed to successfully address obesity is an approach that considers the entire system when making any important decision, observation, or change. A systems approach to obesity prevention and control has many benefits, including the potential to further understand indirect effects or to test policies virtually before implementing them in the real world. Discussed here are 5 key efforts to implement a systems approach for obesity prevention: 1) utilize more global approaches; 2) bring new experts from disciplines that do not traditionally work with obesity to share experiences and ideas with obesity experts; 3) utilize systems methods, such as systems mapping and modeling; 4) modify and combine traditional approaches to achieve a stronger systems orientation; and 5) bridge existing gaps between research, education, policy, and action. This article also provides an example of how a systems approach has been used to convene a multidisciplinary team and conduct systems mapping and modeling as part of an obesity prevention program in Baltimore, Maryland. PMID:28049754

  13. Psycho-Ecological Systems Model: A Systems Approach to Planning and Gauging the Community Impact of Community-Engaged Scholarship

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reeb, Roger N.; Snow-Hill, Nyssa L.; Folger, Susan F.; Steel, Anne L.; Stayton, Laura; Hunt, Charles A.; O'Koon, Bernadette; Glendening, Zachary

    2017-01-01

    This article presents the Psycho-Ecological Systems Model (PESM)--an integrative conceptual model rooted in General Systems Theory (GST). PESM was developed to inform and guide the development, implementation, and evaluation of transdisciplinary (and multilevel) community-engaged scholarship (e.g., a participatory community action research project…

  14. Mathematical approaches for complexity/predictivity trade-offs in complex system models : LDRD final report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goldsby, Michael E.; Mayo, Jackson R.; Bhattacharyya, Arnab (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA); Armstrong, Robert C.; Vanderveen, Keith

    2008-09-01

    The goal of this research was to examine foundational methods, both computational and theoretical, that can improve the veracity of entity-based complex system models and increase confidence in their predictions for emergent behavior. The strategy was to seek insight and guidance from simplified yet realistic models, such as cellular automata and Boolean networks, whose properties can be generalized to production entity-based simulations. We have explored the usefulness of renormalization-group methods for finding reduced models of such idealized complex systems. We have prototyped representative models that are both tractable and relevant to Sandia mission applications, and quantified the effect of computational renormalization on the predictive accuracy of these models, finding good predictivity from renormalized versions of cellular automata and Boolean networks. Furthermore, we have theoretically analyzed the robustness properties of certain Boolean networks, relevant for characterizing organic behavior, and obtained precise mathematical constraints on systems that are robust to failures. In combination, our results provide important guidance for more rigorous construction of entity-based models, which currently are often devised in an ad-hoc manner. Our results can also help in designing complex systems with the goal of predictable behavior, e.g., for cybersecurity.

  15. Improving the Efficiency of Medical Services Systems: A New Integrated Mathematical Modeling Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Davood Shishebori

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, the efficient design of medical service systems plays a critical role in improving the performance and efficiency of medical services provided by governments. Accordingly, health care planners in countries especially with a system based on a National Health Service (NHS try to make decisions on where to locate and how to organize medical services regarding several conditions in different residence areas, so as to improve the geographic equity of comfortable access in the delivery of medical services while accounting for efficiency and cost issues especially in crucial situations. Therefore, optimally locating of such services and also suitable allocating demands them, can help to enhance the performance and responsiveness of medical services system. In this paper, a multiobjective mixed integer nonlinear programming model is proposed to decide locations of new medical system centers, link roads that should be constructed or improved, and also urban residence centers covered by these medical service centers and link roads under investment budget constraint in order to both minimize the total transportation cost of the overall system and minimize the total failure cost (i.e., maximize the system reliability of medical service centers under unforeseen situations. Then, the proposed model is linearized by suitable techniques. Moreover, a practical case study is presented in detail to illustrate the application of the proposed mathematical model. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is done to provide an insight into the behavior of the proposed model in response to changes of key parameters of the problem.

  16. Scenario optimization modeling approach for design and management of biomass-to-biorefinery supply chain system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Bhavna; Ingalls, Ricki G; Jones, Carol L; Huhnke, Raymond L; Khanchi, Amit

    2013-12-01

    The aim of this study was to develop a scenario optimization model to address weather uncertainty in the Biomass Supply Chain (BSC). The modeling objective was to minimize the cost of biomass supply to biorefineries over a one-year planning period using monthly time intervals under different weather scenarios. The model is capable of making strategic, tactical and operational decisions related to BSC system. The performance of the model was demonstrated through a case study developed for Abengoa biorefinery in Kansas. Sensitivity analysis was done to demonstrate the effect of input uncertainty in yield, land rent and storage dry matter loss on the model outputs. The model results show that available harvest work hours influence major cost-related decisions in the BSC. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. System dynamics approach for modeling of sugar beet yield considering the effects of climatic variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pervin, Lia; Islam, Md Saiful

    2015-02-01

    The aim of this study was to develop a system dynamics model for computation of yields and to investigate the dependency of yields on some major climatic parameters, i.e. temperature and rainfall, for Beta vulgaris subsp. (sugar beet crops) under future climate change scenarios. A system dynamics model was developed which takes account of the effects of rainfall and temperature on sugar beet yields under limited irrigation conditions. A relationship was also developed between the seasonal evapotranspiration and seasonal growing degree days for sugar beet crops. The proposed model was set to run for the present time period of 1993-2012 and for the future period 2013-2040 for Lethbridge region (Alberta, Canada). The model provides sugar beet yields on a yearly basis which are comparable to the present field data. It was found that the future average yield will be increased at about 14% with respect to the present average yield. The proposed model can help to improve the understanding of soil water conditions and irrigation water requirements of an area under certain climatic conditions and can be used for future prediction of yields for any crops in any region (with the required information to be provided). The developed system dynamics model can be used as a supporting tool for decision making, for improvement of agricultural management practice of any region. © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry.

  18. Renewable energy systems a smart energy systems approach to the choice and modeling of 100% renewable solutions

    CERN Document Server

    Lund, Henrik

    2014-01-01

    In this new edition of Renewable Energy Systems, globally recognized renewable energy researcher and professor, Henrik Lund, sets forth a straightforward, comprehensive methodology for comparing different energy systems' abilities to integrate fluctuating and intermittent renewable energy sources. The book does this by presenting an energy system analysis methodology and offering a freely available accompanying software tool, EnergyPLAN, which automates and simplifies the calculations supporting such a detailed comparative analysis. The book provides the results of more than fifteen comprehensive energy system analysis studies, examines the large-scale integration of renewable energy into the present system, and presents concrete design examples derived from a dozen renewable energy systems around the globe. Renewable Energy Systems, Second Edition also undertakes the socio-political realities governing the implementation of renewable energy systems by introducing a theoretical framework approach aimed at ...

  19. A novel neural-wavelet approach for process diagnostics and complex system modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Rong

    Neural networks have been effective in several engineering applications because of their learning abilities and robustness. However certain shortcomings, such as slow convergence and local minima, are always associated with neural networks, especially neural networks applied to highly nonlinear and non-stationary problems. These problems can be effectively alleviated by integrating a new powerful tool, wavelets, into conventional neural networks. The multi-resolution analysis and feature localization capabilities of the wavelet transform offer neural networks new possibilities for learning. A neural wavelet network approach developed in this thesis enjoys fast convergence rate with little possibility to be caught at a local minimum. It combines the localization properties of wavelets with the learning abilities of neural networks. Two different testbeds are used for testing the efficiency of the new approach. The first is magnetic flowmeter-based process diagnostics: here we extend previous work, which has demonstrated that wavelet groups contain process information, to more general process diagnostics. A loop at Applied Intelligent Systems Lab (AISL) is used for collecting and analyzing data through the neural-wavelet approach. The research is important for thermal-hydraulic processes in nuclear and other engineering fields. The neural-wavelet approach developed is also tested with data from the electric power grid. More specifically, the neural-wavelet approach is used for performing short-term and mid-term prediction of power load demand. In addition, the feasibility of determining the type of load using the proposed neural wavelet approach is also examined. The notion of cross scale product has been developed as an expedient yet reliable discriminator of loads. Theoretical issues involved in the integration of wavelets and neural networks are discussed and future work outlined.

  20. Separate and combined sewer systems: a long-term modelling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mannina, Giorgio; Viviani, Gaspare

    2009-01-01

    Sewer systems convey mostly dry weather flow, coming from domestic and industrial sanitary sewage as well as infiltration flow, and stormwater due to meteoric precipitations. Traditionally, in urban drainage two types of sewer systems are adopted: separate and combined sewers. The former convey dry and wet weather flow separately into two different networks, while the latter convey dry and wet weather flow together. Which is the best solution in terms of cost-benefit analysis still remains a controversial subject. The present study was aimed at comparing the pollution loads discharged to receiving bodies by Wastewater Treatment Plant (WWTP) and Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) for different kinds of sewer systems (combined and separate). To accomplish this objective, a comparison between the two systems was carried out using results from simulations of catchments characterised by different dimensions, population densities and water supply rate. The analysis was based on a parsimonious mathematical model able to simulate the sewer system as well as the WWTP during both dry and wet weather. The rain series employed for the simulations was six years long. Several pollutants, both dissolved and particulate, were modelled. The results confirmed the uncertainties in the choice of one system versus the other, emphasising the concept that case-by-case solutions have to be undertaken. Further, the compared systems showed different responses in terms of effectiveness in reducing the discharged mass to the RWB in relation to the particular pollutant taken into account.

  1. Study of Modern Approach to Build the Functional Models of Managerial and Engineering Systems in Training Specialists for Space Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. V. Arhipova

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The SM8 Chair at Bauman Moscow State Technological University (BMSTU trains specialists majoring not only in design and manufacture, but also in operation and maintenance of space ground-based infrastructure.The learning courses in design, production, and operation of components of the missile and space technology, give much prominence to modeling. The same attention should be given to the modeling of managerial and engineering systems, with which deal both an expert and a leadman. It is important to choose the modeling tools for managerial and engineering systems with which they are to work and to learn how to apply these tools.The study of modern approach to functional modeling of managerial and engineering systems is held in the format of business game in laboratory class. A structural analysis and design technique (IDEFØ is considered as the means of modeling.The article stresses the IDEFØ approach advantages, namely: comprehensible graphical language, applicability to all-types and all-levels-of-hierarchy managerial and engineering systems modeling, popularity, version control means, teamwork tools. Moreover, the IDEFØ allows us to illustrate such notions, as point of view, system bounders, structure, control, feedback as applied to the managerial and engineering systems.The article offers a modified procedure to create an IDEFØ model in the context of training session. It also suggests a step-by-step procedure of the instruction session to be held, as well as of student self-training to have study credits, and a procedure of the work defense (final test.The approach under consideration can be applied to other training courses. The article proves it giving information about positive experience of its application.

  2. Capturing the Family Context of Emotion Regulation: A Family Systems Model Comparison Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fosco, Gregory M.; Grych, John H.

    2013-01-01

    Several dimensions of family functioning are recognized as formative influences on children's emotion regulation. Historically, they have been studied separately, limiting our ability to understand how they function within the family system. The present investigation tested models including family emotional climate, interparental conflict, and…

  3. A variational integrators approach to second order modeling and identification of linear mechanical systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bruschetta, M.; Saccon, A.; Picci, G.

    2014-01-01

    The theory of variational integration provides a systematic procedure to discretize the equations of motion of a mechanical system, preserving key properties of the continuous time flow. The discrete-time model obtained by variational integration theory inherits structural conditions which in

  4. The DSET Tool Library: A software approach to enable data exchange between climate system models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McCormick, J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)

    1994-12-01

    Climate modeling is a computationally intensive process. Until recently computers were not powerful enough to perform the complex calculations required to simulate the earth`s climate. As a result standalone programs were created that represent components of the earth`s climate (e.g., Atmospheric Circulation Model). However, recent advances in computing, including massively parallel computing, make it possible to couple the components forming a complete earth climate simulation. The ability to couple different climate model components will significantly improve our ability to predict climate accurately and reliably. Historically each major component of the coupled earth simulation is a standalone program designed independently with different coordinate systems and data representations. In order for two component models to be coupled, the data of one model must be mapped to the coordinate system of the second model. The focus of this project is to provide a general tool to facilitate the mapping of data between simulation components, with an emphasis on using object-oriented programming techniques to provide polynomial interpolation, line and area weighting, and aggregation services.

  5. Credit risk migration rates modeling as open systems: A micro-simulation approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landini, S.; Uberti, M.; Casellina, S.

    2018-05-01

    The last financial crisis of 2008 stimulated the development of new Regulatory Criteria (commonly known as Basel III) that pushed the banking activity to become more prudential, either in the short and the long run. As well known, in 2014 the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) promulgated the new International Financial Reporting Standard 9 (IFRS 9) for financial instruments that will become effective in January 2018. Since the delayed recognition of credit losses on loans was identified as a weakness in existing accounting standards, the IASB has introduced an Expected Loss model that requires more timely recognition of credit losses. Specifically, new standards require entities to account both for expected losses from when the impairments are recognized for the first time and for full loan lifetime; moreover, a clear preference toward forward looking models is expressed. In this new framework, it is necessary a re-thinking of the widespread standard theoretical approach on which the well known prudential model is founded. The aim of this paper is then to define an original methodological approach to migration rates modeling for credit risk which is innovative respect to the standard method from the point of view of a bank as well as in a regulatory perspective. Accordingly, the proposed not-standard approach considers a portfolio as an open sample allowing for entries, migrations of stayers and exits as well. While being consistent with the empirical observations, this open-sample approach contrasts with the standard closed-sample method. In particular, this paper offers a methodology to integrate the outcomes of the standard closed-sample method within the open-sample perspective while removing some of the assumptions of the standard method. Three main conclusions can be drawn in terms of economic capital provision: (a) based on the Markovian hypothesis with a-priori absorbing state at default, the standard closed-sample method is to be abandoned

  6. Mechatronic modeling of a 750kW fixed-speed wind energy conversion system using the Bond Graph Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khaouch, Zakaria; Zekraoui, Mustapha; Bengourram, Jamaa; Kouider, Nourreeddine; Mabrouki, Mustapha

    2016-11-01

    In this paper, we would like to focus on modeling main parts of the wind turbines (blades, gearbox, tower, generator and pitching system) from a mechatronics viewpoint using the Bond-Graph Approach (BGA). Then, these parts are combined together in order to simulate the complete system. Moreover, the real dynamic behavior of the wind turbine is taken into account and with the new model; final load simulation is more realistic offering benefits and reliable system performance. This model can be used to develop control algorithms to reduce fatigue loads and enhance power production. Different simulations are carried-out in order to validate the proposed wind turbine model, using real data provided in the open literature (blade profile and gearbox parameters for a 750 kW wind turbine). Copyright © 2016 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Production versus environmental impact trade-offs for Swiss cropping systems: a model-based approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Necpalova, Magdalena; Lee, Juhwan; Six, Johan

    2017-04-01

    There is a growing need to improve sustainability of agricultural systems. The key focus remains on optimizing current production systems in order to deliver food security at low environmental costs. It is therefore essential to identify and evaluate agricultural management practices for their potential to maintain or increase productivity and mitigate climate change and N pollution. Previous research on Swiss cropping systems has been concentrated on increasing crop productivity and soil fertility. Thus, relatively little is known about management effects on net soil greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and environmental N losses in the long-term. The aim of this study was to extrapolate findings from Swiss long-term field experiments and to evaluate the system-level sustainability of a wide range of cropping systems under conditions beyond field experimentation by comparing their crop productivity and impacts on soil carbon, net soil GHG emissions, NO3 leaching and soil N balance over 30 years. The DayCent model was previously parameterized for common Swiss crops and crop-specific management practices and evaluated for productivity, soil carbon dynamics and N2O emissions from Swiss cropping systems. Based on a prediction uncertainty criterion for crop productivity and soil carbon (rRMSEGM). The productivity of Swiss cropping systems was mainly driven by total N inputs to the systems. The GWP of systems ranged from -450 to 1309 kg CO2 eq ha-1 yr-1. All studied systems, except for ORG-RT-GM systems, acted as a source of net soil GHG emissions with the relative contribution of soil N2O emissions to GWP of more than 60%. The GWP of systems with CT decreased consistently with increasing use of organic manures (MIN>IN>ORG). NT relative to RT management showed to be more effective in reducing GWP from MIN systems due to reduced soil N2O emissions and positive effects on soil C sequestration. GM relative to CC management was shown to be more effective in mitigating NO3

  8. Modelling, Simulation, Animation, and Real-Time Control (Mosart) for a Class of Electromechanical Systems: A System-Theoretic Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, Armando A.; Metzger, Richard P.; Cifdaloz, Oguzhan; Dhirasakdanon, Thanate; Welfert, Bruno

    2004-01-01

    This paper describes an interactive modelling, simulation, animation, and real-time control (MoSART) environment for a class of 'cart-pendulum' electromechanical systems that may be used to enhance learning within differential equations and linear algebra classes. The environment is useful for conveying fundamental mathematical/systems concepts…

  9. Power-law approach to modeling biological systems. II. Application to ethanol production

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Voit, E O; Savageau, M A

    1982-01-01

    The use of the power-law formalism is illustrated by modeling yeast ethanol production in batch culture at high cell densities. Parameter values are estimated from experimental data. The results suggest that ethanol killing of viable cells and lysis of nonviable cells are major determinants of system behavior, whereas catabolism of ethanol and inhibition of cell growth by ethanol appear to be insignificant under these experimental conditions.

  10. Multi-model approach to petroleum resource appraisal using analytic methodologies for probabilistic systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crovelli, R.A.

    1988-01-01

    The geologic appraisal model that is selected for a petroleum resource assessment depends upon purpose of the assessment, basic geologic assumptions of the area, type of available data, time available before deadlines, available human and financial resources, available computer facilities, and, most importantly, the available quantitative methodology with corresponding computer software and any new quantitative methodology that would have to be developed. Therefore, different resource assessment projects usually require different geologic models. Also, more than one geologic model might be needed in a single project for assessing different regions of the study or for cross-checking resource estimates of the area. Some geologic analyses used in the past for petroleum resource appraisal involved play analysis. The corresponding quantitative methodologies of these analyses usually consisted of Monte Carlo simulation techniques. A probabilistic system of petroleum resource appraisal for play analysis has been designed to meet the following requirements: (1) includes a variety of geologic models, (2) uses an analytic methodology instead of Monte Carlo simulation, (3) possesses the capacity to aggregate estimates from many areas that have been assessed by different geologic models, and (4) runs quickly on a microcomputer. Geologic models consist of four basic types: reservoir engineering, volumetric yield, field size, and direct assessment. Several case histories and present studies by the U.S. Geological Survey are discussed. ?? 1988 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

  11. A molecular systems approach to modelling human skin pigmentation: identifying underlying pathways and critical components.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raghunath, Arathi; Sambarey, Awanti; Sharma, Neha; Mahadevan, Usha; Chandra, Nagasuma

    2015-04-29

    Ultraviolet radiations (UV) serve as an environmental stress for human skin, and result in melanogenesis, with the pigment melanin having protective effects against UV induced damage. This involves a dynamic and complex regulation of various biological processes that results in the expression of melanin in the outer most layers of the epidermis, where it can exert its protective effect. A comprehensive understanding of the underlying cross talk among different signalling molecules and cell types is only possible through a systems perspective. Increasing incidences of both melanoma and non-melanoma skin cancers necessitate the need to better comprehend UV mediated effects on skin pigmentation at a systems level, so as to ultimately evolve knowledge-based strategies for efficient protection and prevention of skin diseases. A network model for UV-mediated skin pigmentation in the epidermis was constructed and subjected to shortest path analysis. Virtual knock-outs were carried out to identify essential signalling components. We describe a network model for UV-mediated skin pigmentation in the epidermis. The model consists of 265 components (nodes) and 429 directed interactions among them, capturing the manner in which one component influences the other and channels information. Through shortest path analysis, we identify novel signalling pathways relevant to pigmentation. Virtual knock-outs or perturbations of specific nodes in the network have led to the identification of alternate modes of signalling as well as enabled determining essential nodes in the process. The model presented provides a comprehensive picture of UV mediated signalling manifesting in human skin pigmentation. A systems perspective helps provide a holistic purview of interconnections and complexity in the processes leading to pigmentation. The model described here is extensive yet amenable to expansion as new data is gathered. Through this study, we provide a list of important proteins essential

  12. The Balanced Scorecard and the Strategic Learning Process: A System Dynamics Modeling Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steen Nielsen

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of this paper is to improve on the conceptual as well as the methodological aspects of BSC as a quantitative model by combining elements from traditional balanced scorecard (BSC thinking with the Systems Thinking. This is done by combining short and long term aspects of measurements. The result is then used to build and construct a balanced scorecard model for strategic learning with the specific aim to maintain satisfied customers and motivated employees. Strategic planning, operational execution, feedback, and learning are some of the most important key features of any performance measurement model. This paper aims to address not only the conceptual domain related to BSC, that is, learning and system dynamics causality and feedback, but also the methodological domain concept of precision solved by differential equations. Our results show how a potential move from a static strategic vision map to a linked and dynamic understanding may be not fully realistic but very useful for learning purposes. The new knowledge obtained from the learning feedbacks fertilizes both decision discussion and decision-making and what may be required in order to move to the next level of BSC and system dynamics integration.

  13. Quasi-homogenous approximation for description of the properties of dispersed systems. The basic approaches to model hardening processes in nanodispersed silica systems. Part 4. The Main Approaches to Modeling the Kinetics of the Sol-Gel Transition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    KUDRYAVTSEV Pavel Gennadievich

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with possibilities to use quasi-homogenous approximation for description of properties of dispersed systems. The authors applied statistical polymer method based on consideration of average structures of all possible macromolecules of the same weight. The equations which allow evaluating many additive parameters of macromolecules and the systems with them were deduced. Statistical polymer method makes it possible to model branched, cross-linked macromolecules and the systems with them which are in equilibrium or non-equilibrium state. Fractal analysis of statistical polymer allows modeling different types of random fractal and other objects examined with the methods of fractal theory. The method of fractal polymer can be applied not only to polymers but also to composites, gels, associates in polar liquids and other packaged systems. There is also a description of the states of colloid solutions of silica oxide from the point of view of statistical physics. This approach is based on the idea that colloid solution of silica dioxide – sol of silica dioxide – consists of enormous number of interacting particles which are always in move. The paper is devoted to the research of ideal system of colliding but not interacting particles of sol. The analysis of behavior of silica sol was performed according to distribution Maxwell-Boltzmann and free path length was calculated. Using this data the number of the particles which can overcome the potential barrier in collision was calculated. To model kinetics of sol-gel transition different approaches were studied.

  14. Dynamic fuzzy cognitive network approach for modelling and control of PEM fuel cell for power electric bicycle system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kheirandish, Azadeh; Motlagh, Farid; Shafiabady, Niusha; Dahari, Mahidzal; Khairi Abdul Wahab, Ahmad

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: •Fuzzy cognitive map was proposed for the first time to describe the behaviour of fuel cell electric bicycle system. •Fuzzy rules were applied to explain the cause and effect between concepts. •To predict and analyse the cognitive map involved in the negotiation process. -- Abstract: Modelling Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC) is the fundamental step in designing efficient systems for achieving higher performance. Among the development of new energy technologies, modelling and optimization of energy processes with pollution reduction, sufficient efficiency and low emission are considered one of the most promising areas of study. Despite affecting factors in PEMFC functionality, providing a reliable model for PEMFC is the key of performance optimization challenge. In this paper, fuzzy cognitive map has been used for modelling PEMFC system that is directed to provide a dynamic cognitive map from the affecting factors of the system. Controlling and modification of the system performance in various conditions is more practical by correlations among the performance factors of the PEMFC derived from fuzzy cognitive maps. On the other hand, the information of fuzzy cognitive map modelling is applicable for modification of neural networks structure for providing more accurate results based on the extracted knowledge from the cognitive map and visualization of the system’s performance. Finally, a rule based fuzzy cognitive map has been used that can be implemented for decision-making to control the system. This rule-based approach provides interpretability while enhancing the performance of the overall system.

  15. Real-time PCR Machine System Modeling and a Systematic Approach for the Robust Design of a Real-time PCR-on-a-Chip System

    OpenAIRE

    Lee, Da-Sheng

    2010-01-01

    Chip-based DNA quantification systems are widespread, and used in many point-of-care applications. However, instruments for such applications may not be maintained or calibrated regularly. Since machine reliability is a key issue for normal operation, this study presents a system model of the real-time Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) machine to analyze the instrument design through numerical experiments. Based on model analysis, a systematic approach was developed to lower the variation of DN...

  16. Atmospheric emissions modeling of energetic biomass alternatives using system dynamics approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szarka, N.; University of Concepcion; Kakucs, O.; Wolfbauer, J.; Bezama, A.

    2008-01-01

    To simulate the quantitative effects of regional biomass alternatives for energetic purpose (BfE) on air pollutant emissions, a system dynamics model was developed and applied for the EuRegion Austrian-Hungarian cross-border area. The dynamic simulation program Vensim R was used to build an overall regional model with economic, social and environmental sectors. Within this model, the here-introduced regional air pollution sub-model (RegAir) includes the important human-made emissions of 10 pollutants resulting from all relevant source sectors within the region investigated. Emissions from activities related to biomass production, transport, conversion and final energy consumption were built in detail. After building and calibrating the RegAir model, seven quantitative test scenarios were defined and implemented into the world. Through the scenarios simulation, effects on air emissions were followed and compared over time. The results of these simulations show a significant reduction of CO 2 emission, especially in cases where fossil fuel displacement in heating devices is achieved on the largest scale. On the contrary, traditional air pollutants increase by most BfE options. The results of the RegAir model simulations of BfE alternatives over two decades provide useful quantifications of various air emissions and identify the less pollutant BfE alternatives in the dynamic context of the relevant air pollution sources of the region. After minor structural modification and appropriate calibration, RegAir can be applied to other regions as well. However, it is stated that, to finally decide on the overall most-appropriate options at a regional level, other environmental as well as economic and social effects must be taken into consideration, being the latter the goal of the mentioned overall regional model which serves as a model frame to the RegAir tool. (author)

  17. Model-based approach for cyber-physical attack detection in water distribution systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Housh, Mashor; Ohar, Ziv

    2018-08-01

    Modern Water Distribution Systems (WDSs) are often controlled by Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems and Programmable Logic Controllers (PLCs) which manage their operation and maintain a reliable water supply. As such, and with the cyber layer becoming a central component of WDS operations, these systems are at a greater risk of being subjected to cyberattacks. This paper offers a model-based methodology based on a detailed hydraulic understanding of WDSs combined with an anomaly detection algorithm for the identification of complex cyberattacks that cannot be fully identified by hydraulically based rules alone. The results show that the proposed algorithm is capable of achieving the best-known performance when tested on the data published in the BATtle of the Attack Detection ALgorithms (BATADAL) competition (http://www.batadal.net). Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  18. Analysis of enamel development using murine model systems: approaches and limitations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Megan K Pugach

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available A primary goal of enamel research is to understand and potentially treat or prevent enamel defects related to amelogenesis imperfecta (AI. Rodents are ideal models to assist our understanding of how enamel is formed because they are easily genetically modified, and their continuously erupting incisors display all stages of enamel development and mineralization. While numerous methods have been developed to generate and analyze genetically modified rodent enamel, it is crucial to understand the limitations and challenges associated with these methods in order to draw appropriate conclusions that can be applied translationally, to AI patient care. We have highlighted methods involved in generating and analyzing rodent enamel and potential approaches to overcoming limitations of these methods: 1 generating transgenic, knockout and knockin mouse models, and 2 analyzing rodent enamel mineral density and functional properties (structure, mechanics of mature enamel. There is a need for a standardized workflow to analyze enamel phenotypes in rodent models so that investigators can compare data from different studies. These methods include analyses of gene and protein expression, developing enamel histology, enamel pigment, degree of mineralization, enamel structure and mechanical properties. Standardization of these methods with regard to stage of enamel development and sample preparation is crucial, and ideally investigators can use correlative and complementary techniques with the understanding that developing mouse enamel is dynamic and complex.

  19. Generating Collaborative Systems for Digital Libraries: a Model-Driven Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessio Malizia

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The design and development of a digital library involves different stakeholders, such as: information architects, librarians, and domain experts, who need to agree on a common language to describe, discuss, and negotiate the services the library has to offer. To this end, high-level, language-neutral models have to be devised. Metamodeling techniques favor the definition of domainspecific visual languages through which stakeholders can share their views and directly manipulate representations of the domain entities. This paper describes CRADLE (Cooperative-Relational Approach to Digital Library Environments, a metamodel-based framework and visual language for the definition of notions and services related to the development of digital libraries. A collection of tools allows the automatic generation of several services, defined with the CRADLE visual language, and of the graphical user interfaces providing access to them for the final user. The effectiveness of the approach is illustrated by presenting digital libraries generated with CRADLE, while the CRADLE environment has been evaluated by using the cognitive dimensions framework.

  20. Modelling of Non-Linear Pilot Disinfection Water System: A Bond Graph Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naoufel ZITOUNI

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The ultraviolet (UV irradiations are used to solve the bacteriological problem of the drinking water quality. A discharge-gas lamp is used to produce this type of irradiation. The UV lamp is fed by photovoltaic (PV energy via electronic ballast composed by an inverter, a transformer and resonant circuit (RLC. The aim of this work is to give a useful global model of the system. In particular, we introduce the complicated UV lamp model and the water disinfection kinetics, where the radiant energy flux emitted by the discharge-gas lamp and the arc voltage are a complex functions of the current and time. This system is intended to be mainly used in rural zones, the photovoltaic modules as source of energy is an adequate solution. To optimise the power transfer from the PV array to ballast and UV lamp, a Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT device may be located between PV array and the loads. In this paper, we developed a bond-graph model which gives the water quality from UV flow, gas type, pressure, lamp current and geometrical characteristic. Finally reliable simulations are established and compared with experimental tests.

  1. What Happens to Integrated Product Development Models with Product/Service-System Approaches?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tan, Adrian; McAloone, Timothy Charles; Andreasen, Mogens Myrup

    2006-01-01

    Integrated Product Development (IPD) has traditionally focused on the development activities relating to physical technological artefacts. With the advent of business approaches for manufacturing firms based on providing customers the utility of integrated products and services – a term dubbed...... ‘product/service-systems (PSS)’ – companies need to extend their activities to include new dimensions of development. Within the paradigm of mass production and consumption, traditional product-oriented business strategies regarded physical technological artefacts (products) as the mediators of customer...... value. Value was based on the exchange of products between a providing company and a receiving customer. The more products the company could sell, the more revenue it generated. At the point of sale the ownership and responsibility of the product was transferred from company to customer. A customer...

  2. Open quantum system approach to the modeling of spin recombination reactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiersch, M; Steiner, U E; Popescu, S; Briegel, H J

    2012-04-26

    In theories of spin-dependent radical pair reactions, the time evolution of the radical pair, including the effect of the chemical kinetics, is described by a master equation in the Liouville formalism. For the description of the chemical kinetics, a number of possible reaction operators have been formulated in the literature. In this work, we present a framework that allows for a unified description of the various proposed mechanisms and the forms of reaction operators for the spin-selective recombination processes. On the basis of the concept that master equations can be derived from a microscopic description of the spin system interacting with external degrees of freedom, it is possible to gain insight into the underlying microscopic processes and develop a systematic approach toward determining the specific form of the reaction operator in concrete scenarios.

  3. Epilogue: Systems Approaches and Systems Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, Martin; Holwell, Sue

    Each of the five systems approaches discussed in this volume: system dynamics (SD), the viable systems model (VSM), strategic options development and analysis (SODA), soft systems methodology (SSM) and critical systems heuristics (CSH) has a pedigree. Not in the sense of the sometimes absurd spectacle of animals paraded at dog shows. Rather, their pedigree derives from their systems foundations, their capacity to evolve and their flexibility in use. None of the five approaches has developed out of use in restricted and controlled contexts of either low or high levels of complicatedness. Neither has any one of them evolved as a consequence of being applied only to situations with either presumed stakeholder agreement on purpose, or courteous disagreement amongst stakeholders, or stakeholder coercion. The compilation is not a celebration of abstract ‘methodologies', but of theoretically robust approaches that have a genuine pedigree in practice.

  4. Modeling and Analysis of Multidiscipline Research Teams at NASA Langley Research Center: A Systems Thinking Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waszak, Martin R.; Barthelemy, Jean-Francois; Jones, Kenneth M.; Silcox, Richard J.; Silva, Walter A.; Nowaczyk, Ronald H.

    1998-01-01

    Multidisciplinary analysis and design is inherently a team activity due to the variety of required expertise and knowledge. As a team activity, multidisciplinary research cannot escape the issues that affect all teams. The level of technical diversity required to perform multidisciplinary analysis and design makes the teaming aspects even more important. A study was conducted at the NASA Langley Research Center to develop a model of multidiscipline teams that can be used to help understand their dynamics and identify key factors that influence their effectiveness. The study sought to apply the elements of systems thinking to better understand the factors, both generic and Langley-specific, that influence the effectiveness of multidiscipline teams. The model of multidiscipline research teams developed during this study has been valuable in identifying means to enhance team effectiveness, recognize and avoid problem behaviors, and provide guidance for forming and coordinating multidiscipline teams.

  5. Natural Aggregation Approach based Home Energy Manage System with User Satisfaction Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, F. J.; Ranzi, G.; Dong, Z. Y.; Murata, J.

    2017-07-01

    With the prevalence of advanced sensing and two-way communication technologies, Home Energy Management System (HEMS) has attracted lots of attentions in recent years. This paper proposes a HEMS that optimally schedules the controllable Residential Energy Resources (RERs) in a Time-of-Use (TOU) pricing and high solar power penetrated environment. The HEMS aims to minimize the overall operational cost of the home, and the user’s satisfactions and requirements on the operation of different household appliances are modelled and considered in the HEMS. Further, a new biological self-aggregation intelligence based optimization technique previously proposed by the authors, i.e., Natural Aggregation Algorithm (NAA), is applied to solve the proposed HEMS optimization model. Simulations are conducted to validate the proposed method.

  6. A Systems Modeling Approach for Risk Management of Command File Errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meshkat, Leila

    2012-01-01

    The main cause of commanding errors is often (but not always) due to procedures. Either lack of maturity in the processes, incompleteness of requirements or lack of compliance to these procedures. Other causes of commanding errors include lack of understanding of system states, inadequate communication, and making hasty changes in standard procedures in response to an unexpected event. In general, it's important to look at the big picture prior to making corrective actions. In the case of errors traced back to procedures, considering the reliability of the process as a metric during its' design may help to reduce risk. This metric is obtained by using data from Nuclear Industry regarding human reliability. A structured method for the collection of anomaly data will help the operator think systematically about the anomaly and facilitate risk management. Formal models can be used for risk based design and risk management. A generic set of models can be customized for a broad range of missions.

  7. A Mathematical Modelling Approach for Systems Where the Servers Are Almost Always Busy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christina Pagel

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The design and implementation of new configurations of mental health services to meet local needs is a challenging problem. In the UK, services for common mental health disorders such as anxiety and depression are an example of a system running near or at capacity, in that it is extremely rare for the queue size for any given mode of treatment to fall to zero. In this paper we describe a mathematical model that can be applied in such circumstances. The model provides a simple way of estimating the mean and variance of the number of patients that would be treated within a given period of time given a particular configuration of services as defined by the number of appointments allocated to different modes of treatment and the referral patterns to and between different modes of treatment. The model has been used by service planners to explore the impact of different options on throughput, clinical outcomes, queue sizes, and waiting times. We also discuss the potential for using the model in conjunction with optimisation techniques to inform service design and its applicability to other contexts.

  8. Multiple Model-Based Synchronization Approaches for Time Delayed Slaving Data in a Space Launch Vehicle Tracking System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haryong Song

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Due to the inherent characteristics of the flight mission of a space launch vehicle (SLV, which is required to fly over very large distances and have very high fault tolerances, in general, SLV tracking systems (TSs comprise multiple heterogeneous sensors such as radars, GPS, INS, and electrooptical targeting systems installed over widespread areas. To track an SLV without interruption and to hand over the measurement coverage between TSs properly, the mission control system (MCS transfers slaving data to each TS through mission networks. When serious network delays occur, however, the slaving data from the MCS can lead to the failure of the TS. To address this problem, in this paper, we propose multiple model-based synchronization (MMS approaches, which take advantage of the multiple motion models of an SLV. Cubic spline extrapolation, prediction through an α-β-γ filter, and a single model Kalman filter are presented as benchmark approaches. We demonstrate the synchronization accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed MMS approaches using the Monte Carlo simulation with the nominal trajectory data of Korea Space Launch Vehicle-I.

  9. Enhancing Interdisciplinary Human System Risk Research Through Modeling and Network Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mindock, Jennifer; Lumpkins, Sarah; Shelhamer, Mark

    2015-01-01

    NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) supports research to reduce human health and performance risks inherent in future human space exploration missions. Understanding risk outcomes and contributing factors in an integrated manner allows HRP research to support development of efficient and effective mitigations from cross-disciplinary perspectives, and to enable resilient human and engineered systems for spaceflight. The purpose of this work is to support scientific collaborations and research portfolio management by utilizing modeling for analysis and visualization of current and potential future interdisciplinary efforts.

  10. A System Dynamics Approach to Modeling the Sensitivity of Inappropriate Emergency Department Utilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behr, Joshua G.; Diaz, Rafael

    Non-urgent Emergency Department utilization has been attributed with increasing congestion in the flow and treatment of patients and, by extension, conditions the quality of care and profitability of the Emergency Department. Interventions designed to divert populations to more appropriate care may be cautiously received by operations managers due to uncertainty about the impact an adopted intervention may have on the two values of congestion and profitability. System Dynamics (SD) modeling and simulation may be used to measure the sensitivity of these two, often-competing, values of congestion and profitability and, thus, provide an additional layer of information designed to inform strategic decision making.

  11. Modeling the heterogeneous traffic correlations in urban road systems using traffic-enhanced community detection approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Feng; Liu, Kang; Duan, Yingying; Cheng, Shifen; Du, Fei

    2018-07-01

    A better characterization of the traffic influence among urban roads is crucial for traffic control and traffic forecasting. The existence of spatial heterogeneity imposes great influence on modeling the extent and degree of road traffic correlation, which is usually neglected by the traditional distance based method. In this paper, we propose a traffic-enhanced community detection approach to spatially reveal the traffic correlation in city road networks. First, the road network is modeled as a traffic-enhanced dual graph with the closeness between two road segments determined not only by their topological connection, but also by the traffic correlation between them. Then a flow-based community detection algorithm called Infomap is utilized to identify the road segment clusters. Evaluated by Moran's I, Calinski-Harabaz Index and the traffic interpolation application, we find that compared to the distance based method and the community based method, our proposed traffic-enhanced community based method behaves better in capturing the extent of traffic relevance as both the topological structure of the road network and the traffic correlations among urban roads are considered. It can be used in more traffic-related applications, such as traffic forecasting, traffic control and guidance.

  12. A templated approach for multi-physics modeling of hybrid energy systems in Modelica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greenwood, Michael Scott [ORNL; Cetiner, Sacit M. [ORNL; Harrison, Thomas J. [ORNL; Fugate, David [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)

    2018-01-01

    A prototypical hybrid energy system (HES) couples a primary thermal power generator (i.e., nuclear power plant) with one or more additional subsystems beyond the traditional balance of plant electricity generation system. The definition and architecture of an HES can be adapted based on the needs and opportunities of a given local market. For example, locations in need of potable water may be best served by coupling a desalination plant to the HES. A location near an oil refinery may have a need for emission-free hydrogen production. The flexible, multidomain capabilities of Modelica are being used to investigate the dynamics (e.g., thermal hydraulics and electrical generation/consumption) of such a hybrid system. This paper examines the simulation infrastructure created to enable the coupling of multiphysics subsystem models for HES studies. A demonstration of a tightly coupled nuclear hybrid energy system implemented using the Modelica based infrastructure is presented for two representative cases. An appendix is also included providing a step-by-step procedure for using the template-based infrastructure.

  13. Is Model-Based Development a Favorable Approach for Complex and Safety-Critical Computer Systems on Commercial Aircraft?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres-Pomales, Wilfredo

    2014-01-01

    A system is safety-critical if its failure can endanger human life or cause significant damage to property or the environment. State-of-the-art computer systems on commercial aircraft are highly complex, software-intensive, functionally integrated, and network-centric systems of systems. Ensuring that such systems are safe and comply with existing safety regulations is costly and time-consuming as the level of rigor in the development process, especially the validation and verification activities, is determined by considerations of system complexity and safety criticality. A significant degree of care and deep insight into the operational principles of these systems is required to ensure adequate coverage of all design implications relevant to system safety. Model-based development methodologies, methods, tools, and techniques facilitate collaboration and enable the use of common design artifacts among groups dealing with different aspects of the development of a system. This paper examines the application of model-based development to complex and safety-critical aircraft computer systems. Benefits and detriments are identified and an overall assessment of the approach is given.

  14. Power System Event Ranking Using a New Linear Parameter-Varying Modeling with a Wide Area Measurement System-Based Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Bagher Abolhasani Jabali

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Detecting critical power system events for Dynamic Security Assessment (DSA is required for reliability improvement. The approach proposed in this paper investigates the effects of events on dynamic behavior during nonlinear system response while common approaches use steady-state conditions after events. This paper presents some new and enhanced indices for event ranking based on time-domain simulation and polytopic linear parameter-varying (LPV modeling of a power system. In the proposed approach, a polytopic LPV representation is generated via linearization about some points of the nonlinear dynamic behavior of power system using wide-area measurement system (WAMS concepts and then event ranking is done based on the frequency response of the system models on the vertices. Therefore, the nonlinear behaviors of the system in the time of fault occurrence are considered for events ranking. The proposed algorithm is applied to a power system using nonlinear simulation. The comparison of the results especially in different fault conditions shows the advantages of the proposed approach and indices.

  15. From conceptual process models to running systems: a holistic approach for the configuration of enterprise system processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dreiling, A.; Rosemann, M.; Aalst, van der W.M.P.; Sadiq, W.

    2008-01-01

    This paper proposes a method which aims at increasing the efficiency of enterprise system implementations. First, we argue that existing process modeling languages that feature different degrees of abstraction for different user groups exist and are used for different purposes which makes it

  16. Systems Theory and Systems Approach to Leadership

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dr.Sc. Berim Ramosaj

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Systems theory is product of the efforts of many researchers to create an intermediate field of coexistence of all sciences. If not for anything else, because of the magnitude that the use of systemic thinking and systemic approach has taken, it has become undisputed among the theories. Systems theory not only provides a glossary of terms with which researchers from different fields can be understood, but provides a framework for the presentation and interpretation of phenomena and realities. This paper addresses a systematic approach to leadership, as an attempt to dredge leadership and systems theory literature to find the meeting point. Systems approach is not an approach to leadership in terms of a manner of leader’s work, but it’s the leader's determination to factorize in his leadership the external environment and relationships with and among elements. Leader without followers is unable to exercise his leadership and to ensure their conviction he should provide a system, a structure, a purpose, despite the alternative chaos. Systems approach clarifies the thought on the complexity and dynamism of the environment and provides a framework for building ideas. If the general system theory is the skeleton of science (Boulding: 1956, this article aims to replenish it with leadership muscles by prominent authors who have written on systems theory and leadership, as well as through original ideas. In this work analytical methods were used (by analyzing approaches individually as well as synthetic methods (by assaying individual approaches in context of entirety. The work is a critical review of literature as well as a deductive analysis mingled with models proposed by authors through inductive analysis. Meta-analysis has been used to dissect the interaction and interdependence between leadership approaches.

  17. Some approaches to the effective functioning of the system model social infrastructure company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. S. Armashova-Telnik

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In today's economic conditions, characterized by a high degree of instability and uncertainty as the conditions for the functioning of economic entities, as well as political and economic conditions in general, in the management structure of the economy it is advisable to proceed from the position of the key concepts of management, optimally adapted to the real situation. In this context, it is necessary to use scientific innovation to improve the economic growth of economic entities through the effective functioning of the enterprise social infrastructure models. Lineup social infrastructure systems involves various models of a number of features of structure. In this regard, according to the strategic objectives of a business entity, on its socio-economic targets need to use all the resource capacity of the organization to achieve its objectives by means of integration in the social infrastructure system model that focuses on the efficient use of human resources in the process of increasing the economic performance of the company. So, guided by a number of basic principles of the successful implementation of social infrastructure mechanisms of enterprises, structure of the economy with a view to long-term effective operation, it is necessary to take into account the value of the vectors of the organizational culture of polarization in the motivation of personnel, which could be one of the levers of growth of efficiency of functioning of the enterprise, a powerful strategic tool to target all units and individual subjects for the organization, mobilize the initiative of employees and ensure productive interaction of subjects in the format “business-to-employee” rather than substantially predetermine the competitiveness and success of the organization in the long run.

  18. Linear stochastic systems a geometric approach to modeling, estimation and identification

    CERN Document Server

    Lindquist, Anders

    2015-01-01

    This book presents a treatise on the theory and modeling of second-order stationary processes, including an exposition on selected application areas that are important in the engineering and applied sciences. The foundational issues regarding stationary processes dealt with in the beginning of the book have a long history, starting in the 1940s with the work of Kolmogorov, Wiener, Cramér and his students, in particular Wold, and have since been refined and complemented by many others. Problems concerning the filtering and modeling of stationary random signals and systems have also been addressed and studied, fostered by the advent of modern digital computers, since the fundamental work of R.E. Kalman in the early 1960s. The book offers a unified and logically consistent view of the subject based on simple ideas from Hilbert space geometry and coordinate-free thinking. In this framework, the concepts of stochastic state space and state space modeling, based on the notion of the conditional independence of pas...

  19. A Novel Distributed Economic Model Predictive Control Approach for Building Air-Conditioning Systems in Microgrids

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinan Zhang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available With the penetration of grid-connected renewable energy generation, microgrids are facing stability and power quality problems caused by renewable intermittency. To alleviate such problems, demand side management (DSM of responsive loads, such as building air-conditioning system (BACS, has been proposed and studied. In recent years, numerous control approaches have been published for proper management of single BACS. The majority of these approaches focus on either the control of BACS for attenuating power fluctuations in the grid or the operating cost minimization on behalf of the residents. These two control objectives are paramount for BACS control in microgrids and can be conflicting. As such, they should be considered together in control design. As individual buildings may have different owners/residents, it is natural to control different BACSs in an autonomous and self-interested manner to minimize the operational costs for the owners/residents. Unfortunately, such “selfish” operation can result in abrupt and large power fluctuations at the point of common coupling (PCC of the microgrid due to lack of coordination. Consequently, the original objective of mitigating power fluctuations generated by renewable intermittency cannot be achieved. To minimize the operating costs of individual BACSs and simultaneously ensure desirable overall power flow at PCC, this paper proposes a novel distributed control framework based on the dissipativity theory. The proposed method achieves the objective of renewable intermittency mitigation through proper coordination of distributed BACS controllers and is scalable and computationally efficient. Simulation studies are carried out to illustrate the efficacy of the proposed control framework.

  20. Rail transport systems approach

    CERN Document Server

    2017-01-01

    This book shows how the systems approach is employed by scientists in various countries to solve specific problems concerning railway transport. In particular, the book describes the experiences of scientists from Romania, Germany, the Czech Republic, the UK, Russia, Ukraine, Lithuania and Poland. For many of these countries there is a problem with the historical differences between the railways. In particular, there are railways with different rail gauges, with different signaling and communication systems, with different energy supplies and, finally, with different political systems, which are reflected in the different approaches to the management of railway economies. The book’s content is divided into two main parts, the first of which provides a systematic analysis of individual means of providing and maintaining rail transport. In turn, the second part addresses infrastructure and management development, with particular attention to security issues. Though primarily written for professionals involved...

  1. Electronics a systems approach

    CERN Document Server

    Storey, Neil

    2017-01-01

    Electronics plays a central role in our everyday lives. It is at the heart of almost all of today's essential technology, from mobile phones to computers and from cars to power stations. As such, all engineers, scientists and technologists need to have a fundamental understanding of this exciting subject, and for many this will just be the beginning. Now in its sixth edition, Electronics: A Systems Approach provides an outstanding introduction to this fast-moving and important field. Comprehensively revised and updated to cover the latest developments in the world of electronics, the text continues to use Neil Storey's established and well-respected systems approach. It introduces the basic concepts first before progressing to a more advanced analysis, enabling you to contextualise what a system is designed to achieve before tackling the intricacies of designing or analysing its various components with confidence. This book is accompanied by a website which contains over 100 video tutorials to help explain ke...

  2. An approach to modeling and optimization of integrated renewable energy system (ires)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maheshwari, Zeel

    The purpose of this study was to cost optimize electrical part of IRES (Integrated Renewable Energy Systems) using HOMER and maximize the utilization of resources using MATLAB programming. IRES is an effective and a viable strategy that can be employed to harness renewable energy resources to energize remote rural areas of developing countries. The resource- need matching, which is the basis for IRES makes it possible to provide energy in an efficient and cost effective manner. Modeling and optimization of IRES for a selected study area makes IRES more advantageous when compared to hybrid concepts. A remote rural area with a population of 700 in 120 households and 450 cattle is considered as an example for cost analysis and optimization. Mathematical models for key components of IRES such as biogas generator, hydropower generator, wind turbine, PV system and battery banks are developed. A discussion of the size of water reservoir required is also presented. Modeling of IRES on the basis of need to resource and resource to need matching is pursued to help in optimum use of resources for the needs. Fixed resources such as biogas and water are used in prioritized order whereas movable resources such as wind and solar can be used simultaneously for different priorities. IRES is cost optimized for electricity demand using HOMER software that is developed by the NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory). HOMER optimizes configuration for electrical demand only and does not consider other demands such as biogas for cooking and water for domestic and irrigation purposes. Hence an optimization program based on the need-resource modeling of IRES is performed in MATLAB. Optimization of the utilization of resources for several needs is performed. Results obtained from MATLAB clearly show that the available resources can fulfill the demand of the rural areas. Introduction of IRES in rural communities has many socio-economic implications. It brings about improvement in living

  3. Applying of an Ontology based Modeling Approach to Cultural Heritage Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    POPOVICI, D.-M.

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Any virtual environment (VE built in a classical way is dedicated to a very specific domain. Its modification or even adaptation to another domain requires an expensive human intervention measured in time and money. This way, the product, that means the VE, returns at the first phases of the development process. In a previous work we proposed an approach that combines domain ontologies and conceptual modeling to construct more accurate VEs. Our method is based on the description of the domain knowledge in a standard format and the assisted creation (using these pieces of knowledge of the VE. This permits the explanation within the virtual reality (VR simulation of the semantic of the whole context and of each object. This knowledge may be then transferred to the public users. In this paper we prove the effectiveness of our method on the construction process of an VE that simulates the organization of a Greek-Roman colony situated on the Black Sea coast and the economic and social activities of its people.

  4. HEDR modeling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shipler, D.B.; Napier, B.A.

    1992-07-01

    This report details the conceptual approaches to be used in calculating radiation doses to individuals throughout the various periods of operations at the Hanford Site. The report considers the major environmental transport pathways--atmospheric, surface water, and ground water--and projects and appropriate modeling technique for each. The modeling sequence chosen for each pathway depends on the available data on doses, the degree of confidence justified by such existing data, and the level of sophistication deemed appropriate for the particular pathway and time period being considered

  5. Embedding Systems Thinking into EWB Project Planning and Development: Assessing the Utility of a Group Model Building Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kimberly Pugel

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Amongst growing sociotechnical efforts, engineering students and professionals both in the international development sector and industry are challenged to approach projects more holistically to achieve project goals.  Engineering service learning organizations must similarly adapt their technological projects to consider varying cultural and economic structures, ensuring more resilient social progress within development efforts.  In practice, systems thinking approaches can be utilized to model the social, economic, political, and technological implications that influence the sustainability of an engineering project. This research assesses the utility of integrating systems thinking into Engineers Without Borders (EWB project planning and development, thereby improving project impact and more effectively engaging members.  At a workshop held at an EWB-USA 2016 Regional Conference, the authors presented a planning and evaluation framework that applies group model building with system dynamics to foster systems thinking through factor diagramming and analysis. To assess the added value of the framework for EWB project planning and development, extensive participant feedback was gathered and evaluated during the workshop and through an optional post-workshop survey.  Supported by thoughtful observations and feedback provided by the EWB members, the model building workshop appeared to help participants reveal and consider project complexities by both visually and quantitatively identifying key non-technical and technical factors that influence project sustainability.  Therefore, system dynamics applied in a group model building workshop offers a powerful supplement to traditional EWB project planning and assessment activities, providing a systems-based tool for EWB teams and partner communities to build capacity and create lasting change.

  6. A GoldSim modeling approach to safety assessment of an LILW repository system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Youn Myoung; Jeong, Jongtae; Choi, Jongwon

    2011-01-01

    A program for the safety assessment and performance evaluation of a low- and intermediate level waste (LILW) repository system has been developed by utilizing GoldSim. By utilizing this nuclide transport in the near- and far-field of a repository as well as a transport through a biosphere under various natural and manmade disruptive events affecting a nuclide release are modeled and evaluated. To demonstrate its usability, some illustrative cases under the selected scenarios including the influence of degradation of manmade barriers, pumping well drilling, and the natural disruptive events such as a sudden formation of preferential flow pathway have been investigated and illustrated for a hypothetical LILW repository. Even though all the parameter values applied to a hypothetical repository are assumed without any real base, the illustrative cases could be informative especially when seeing the result of the probabilistic calculation or sensitivity studies with various scenarios that possibly happen for nuclide release and further transport. (author)

  7. Systems approach to studying animal sociality: individual position versus group organization in dynamic social network models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karlo Hock

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Social networks can be used to represent group structure as a network of interacting components, and also to quantify both the position of each individual and the global properties of a group. In a series of simulation experiments based on dynamic social networks, we test the prediction that social behaviors that help individuals reach prominence within their social group may conflict with their potential to benefit from their social environment. In addition to cases where individuals were able to benefit from improving both their personal relative importance and group organization, using only simple rules of social affiliation we were able to obtain results in which individuals would face a trade-off between these factors. While selection would favor (or work against social behaviors that concordantly increase (or decrease, respectively fitness at both individual and group level, when these factors conflict with each other the eventual selective pressure would depend on the relative returns individuals get from their social environment and their position within it. The presented results highlight the importance of a systems approach to studying animal sociality, in which the effects of social behaviors should be viewed not only through the benefits that those provide to individuals, but also in terms of how they affect broader social environment and how in turn this is reflected back on an individual's fitness.

  8. Modelling approaches to thermal pollution in inland aquatic systems and issues related to its environmental impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahadevan, T.N.; Nair, R.N.; Sadasivan, S.

    2002-01-01

    Guidelines for the safe discharge of thermal effluents in aquatic environmental systems both surface water and marine coastal out falls has become very relevant to Indian environmental conditions with its rich biodiversity. While aquatic ecology may form the basis for such guidelines, the need for regulatory approach to the related issues has become the prime mover in thermal discharge problems. This is more so since the impacts considered are under short term and long term exposure conditions where the bio acclimatization and thermal stress factors may come to cross roads. Constant temperatures and cyclic temperature elevations also causes differential thermal stress which could be site specific. The recent notification by the Ministry of Environment and Forest (MoEF) revising the temperature limit for discharge of condenser cooling water from thermal power plants into coastal areas using sea water from 5 deg to 7 degC over and above the ambient temperature of the receiving water bodies. Discussions on whether the limiting temperature is to be achieved at the point of discharge or within a specified zone of the thermal plume is currently being debated. The act also stipulates installation of cooling towers using water from rivers, lakes and reservoirs irrespective of the plant location and capacity. For existing thermal plants the rise in temperature of the condenser cooling water from inlet to the let of the condenser shall not be more than 10 degC. (author)

  9. A system identification approach for developing model predictive controllers of antibody quality attributes in cell culture processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Downey, Brandon; Schmitt, John; Beller, Justin; Russell, Brian; Quach, Anthony; Hermann, Elizabeth; Lyon, David; Breit, Jeffrey

    2017-11-01

    As the biopharmaceutical industry evolves to include more diverse protein formats and processes, more robust control of Critical Quality Attributes (CQAs) is needed to maintain processing flexibility without compromising quality. Active control of CQAs has been demonstrated using model predictive control techniques, which allow development of processes which are robust against disturbances associated with raw material variability and other potentially flexible operating conditions. Wide adoption of model predictive control in biopharmaceutical cell culture processes has been hampered, however, in part due to the large amount of data and expertise required to make a predictive model of controlled CQAs, a requirement for model predictive control. Here we developed a highly automated, perfusion apparatus to systematically and efficiently generate predictive models using application of system identification approaches. We successfully created a predictive model of %galactosylation using data obtained by manipulating galactose concentration in the perfusion apparatus in serialized step change experiments. We then demonstrated the use of the model in a model predictive controller in a simulated control scenario to successfully achieve a %galactosylation set point in a simulated fed-batch culture. The automated model identification approach demonstrated here can potentially be generalized to many CQAs, and could be a more efficient, faster, and highly automated alternative to batch experiments for developing predictive models in cell culture processes, and allow the wider adoption of model predictive control in biopharmaceutical processes. © 2017 The Authors Biotechnology Progress published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Institute of Chemical Engineers Biotechnol. Prog., 33:1647-1661, 2017. © 2017 The Authors Biotechnology Progress published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Institute of Chemical Engineers.

  10. A system dynamic modeling approach for evaluating municipal solid waste generation, landfill capacity and related cost management issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kollikkathara, Naushad; Feng Huan; Yu Danlin

    2010-01-01

    As planning for sustainable municipal solid waste management has to address several inter-connected issues such as landfill capacity, environmental impacts and financial expenditure, it becomes increasingly necessary to understand the dynamic nature of their interactions. A system dynamics approach designed here attempts to address some of these issues by fitting a model framework for Newark urban region in the US, and running a forecast simulation. The dynamic system developed in this study incorporates the complexity of the waste generation and management process to some extent which is achieved through a combination of simpler sub-processes that are linked together to form a whole. The impact of decision options on the generation of waste in the city, on the remaining landfill capacity of the state, and on the economic cost or benefit actualized by different waste processing options are explored through this approach, providing valuable insights into the urban waste-management process.

  11. Piloted Simulation Evaluation of a Model-Predictive Automatic Recovery System to Prevent Vehicle Loss of Control on Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Litt, Jonathan S.; Liu, Yuan; Sowers, Thomas S.; Owen, A. Karl; Guo, Ten-Huei

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes a model-predictive automatic recovery system for aircraft on the verge of a loss-of-control situation. The system determines when it must intervene to prevent an imminent accident, resulting from a poor approach. It estimates the altitude loss that would result from a go-around maneuver at the current flight condition. If the loss is projected to violate a minimum altitude threshold, the maneuver is automatically triggered. The system deactivates to allow landing once several criteria are met. Piloted flight simulator evaluation showed the system to provide effective envelope protection during extremely unsafe landing attempts. The results demonstrate how flight and propulsion control can be integrated to recover control of the vehicle automatically and prevent a potential catastrophe.

  12. A Comparison of Deterministic and Stochastic Modeling Approaches for Biochemical Reaction Systems: On Fixed Points, Means, and Modes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hahl, Sayuri K; Kremling, Andreas

    2016-01-01

    In the mathematical modeling of biochemical reactions, a convenient standard approach is to use ordinary differential equations (ODEs) that follow the law of mass action. However, this deterministic ansatz is based on simplifications; in particular, it neglects noise, which is inherent to biological processes. In contrast, the stochasticity of reactions is captured in detail by the discrete chemical master equation (CME). Therefore, the CME is frequently applied to mesoscopic systems, where copy numbers of involved components are small and random fluctuations are thus significant. Here, we compare those two common modeling approaches, aiming at identifying parallels and discrepancies between deterministic variables and possible stochastic counterparts like the mean or modes of the state space probability distribution. To that end, a mathematically flexible reaction scheme of autoregulatory gene expression is translated into the corresponding ODE and CME formulations. We show that in the thermodynamic limit, deterministic stable fixed points usually correspond well to the modes in the stationary probability distribution. However, this connection might be disrupted in small systems. The discrepancies are characterized and systematically traced back to the magnitude of the stoichiometric coefficients and to the presence of nonlinear reactions. These factors are found to synergistically promote large and highly asymmetric fluctuations. As a consequence, bistable but unimodal, and monostable but bimodal systems can emerge. This clearly challenges the role of ODE modeling in the description of cellular signaling and regulation, where some of the involved components usually occur in low copy numbers. Nevertheless, systems whose bimodality originates from deterministic bistability are found to sustain a more robust separation of the two states compared to bimodal, but monostable systems. In regulatory circuits that require precise coordination, ODE modeling is thus still

  13. Systems biology approach to bioremediation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chakraborty, Romy; Wu, Cindy H.; Hazen, Terry C.

    2012-06-01

    Bioremediation has historically been approached as a ‘black box’ in terms of our fundamental understanding. Thus it succeeds and fails, seldom without a complete understanding of why. Systems biology is an integrated research approach to study complex biological systems, by investigating interactions and networks at the molecular, cellular, community, and ecosystem level. The knowledge of these interactions within individual components is fundamental to understanding the dynamics of the ecosystem under investigation. Finally, understanding and modeling functional microbial community structure and stress responses in environments at all levels have tremendous implications for our fundamental understanding of hydrobiogeochemical processes and the potential for making bioremediation breakthroughs and illuminating the ‘black box’.

  14. A system dynamics modelling approach to assess the impact of launching a new nicotine product on population health outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Andrew; Camacho, Oscar M

    2017-06-01

    In 2012 the US FDA suggested the use of mathematical models to assess the impact of releasing new nicotine or tobacco products on population health outcomes. A model based on system dynamics methodology was developed to project the potential effects of a new nicotine product at a population level. A model representing traditional smoking populations (never, current and former smokers) and calibrated using historical data was extended to a two-product model by including electronic cigarettes use statuses. Smoking mechanisms, such as product initiation, switching, transition to dual use, and cessation, were represented as flows between smoking statuses (stocks) and the potential effect of smoking renormalisation through a feedback system. Mortality over a 50-year period (2000-2050) was the health outcome of interest, and was compared between two scenarios, with and without e-cigarettes being introduced. The results suggest that by 2050, smoking prevalence in adults was 12.4% in the core model and 9.7% (including dual users) in the counterfactual. Smoking-related mortality was 8.4% and 8.1%, respectively. The results suggested an overall beneficial effect from launching e-cigarettes and that system dynamics could be a useful approach to assess the potential population health effects of nicotine products when epidemiological data are not available. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Dynamic optimal control of homeostasis: an integrative system approach for modeling of the central nitrogen metabolism in Saccharomyces cerevisiae.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Riel, N A; Giuseppin, M L; Verrips, C T

    2000-01-01

    The theory of dynamic optimal metabolic control (DOMC), as developed by Giuseppin and Van Riel (Metab. Eng., 2000), is applied to model the central nitrogen metabolism (CNM) in Saccharomyces cerevisiae. The CNM represents a typical system encountered in advanced metabolic engineering. The CNM is the source of the cellular amino acids and proteins, including flavors and potentially valuable biomolecules; therefore, it is also of industrial interest. In the DOMC approach the cell is regarded as an optimally controlled system. Given the metabolic genotype, the cell faces a control problem to maintain an optimal flux distribution in a changing environment. The regulation is based on strategies and balances feedback control of homeostasis and feedforward regulation for adaptation. The DOMC approach is an integrative, holistic approach, not based on mechanistic descriptions and (therefore) not biased by the variation present in biochemical and molecular biological data. It is an effective tool to structure the rapidly increasing amount of data on the function of genes and pathways. The DOMC model is used successfully to predict the responses of pulses of ammonia and glutamine to nitrogen-limited continuous cultures of a wild-type strain and a glutamine synthetase-negative mutant. The simulation results are validated with experimental data.

  16. Materials, system designs and modelling approaches in techno-economic assessment of all-vanadium redox flow batteries - A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minke, Christine; Turek, Thomas

    2018-02-01

    The vanadium redox flow battery (VFB) is one of the most promising stationary electrochemical storage systems. The reduction of system costs is a major challenge in the realization of its widespread application. The high complexity of this technology requires a close linking of technologic and economic aspects in system cost assessment. The present review provides an extensive literature analysis with a focus on techno-economic assessment of VFB. Considered materials, system designs and modelling approaches are assessed and compared in order to present and evaluate the current status of system cost assessment in a transparent way. Systems in a range of 2 kW-50 MW providing energy for up to 150 h are covered in literature resulting in an immense range of specific total system costs of 564-12931 € kW-1 or 89-1738 € (kWh)-1. Based on the data from the reviewed studies, guide values of 650 € (kWh)-1 and 550 € (kWh)-1 for installed VFB systems in a power range of 10-1000 kW providing energy for 4 h and 8 h respectively are derived from literature. Moreover, the relevance of precision in the definition of scope and components for meaningful results of techno-economic assessments of VFB systems is pointed out.

  17. A model-based systems approach to pharmaceutical product-process design and analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gernaey, Krist; Gani, Rafiqul

    2010-01-01

    This is a perspective paper highlighting the need for systematic model-based design and analysis in pharmaceutical product-process development. A model-based framework is presented and the role, development and use of models of various types are discussed together with the structure of the models...

  18. Evaporator modeling - A hybrid approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ding Xudong; Cai Wenjian; Jia Lei; Wen Changyun

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, a hybrid modeling approach is proposed to model two-phase flow evaporators. The main procedures for hybrid modeling includes: (1) Based on the energy and material balance, and thermodynamic principles to formulate the process fundamental governing equations; (2) Select input/output (I/O) variables responsible to the system performance which can be measured and controlled; (3) Represent those variables existing in the original equations but are not measurable as simple functions of selected I/Os or constants; (4) Obtaining a single equation which can correlate system inputs and outputs; and (5) Identify unknown parameters by linear or nonlinear least-squares methods. The method takes advantages of both physical and empirical modeling approaches and can accurately predict performance in wide operating range and in real-time, which can significantly reduce the computational burden and increase the prediction accuracy. The model is verified with the experimental data taken from a testing system. The testing results show that the proposed model can predict accurately the performance of the real-time operating evaporator with the maximum error of ±8%. The developed models will have wide applications in operational optimization, performance assessment, fault detection and diagnosis

  19. MOBILITY: A SYSTEMS APPROACH

    OpenAIRE

    Mykola I. Striuk; Serhiy O. Semerikov; Andrii M. Striuk

    2015-01-01

    A comprehensive study on the problem of mobility in the socio-educational and technical systems was carried out: the evolution of the concept of mobility in scientific sources of XIX–XXI centuries was analyzed and the new sources on the issue of mobility introduced into scientific circulation, the interrelation of the types of mobility in the socio-pedagogical and technical systems are theoretically grounded, an integrative model of mobility in the information society is proposed. The major t...

  20. Tailored approaches in drug development and diagnostics : from molecular design to biological model systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sahlgren, C.M.; Meinander, A.; Zhang, H.; Cheng, F.; Preis, Maren; Xu, C.; Salminen, T.A.; Toivola, D.M.; Abankwa, D.; Rosling, A.; Karaman, D.Ş.; Salo-Ahen, O.M.H.; Österbacka, R.; Eriksson, J.E.; Willför, S.; Petre, I.; Peltonen, J.; Leino, R.; Johnson, M.; Rosenholm, J.; Sandler, N.

    2017-01-01

    Approaches to increase the efficiency in developing drugs and diagnostics tools, including new drug delivery and diagnostic technologies, are needed for improved diagnosis and treatment of major diseases and health problems such as cancer, inflammatory diseases, chronic wounds, and antibiotic

  1. Towards a complex systems approach in sports injury research: simulating running-related injury development with agent-based modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hulme, Adam; Thompson, Jason; Nielsen, Rasmus Oestergaard; Read, Gemma J M; Salmon, Paul M

    2018-06-18

    There have been recent calls for the application of the complex systems approach in sports injury research. However, beyond theoretical description and static models of complexity, little progress has been made towards formalising this approach in way that is practical to sports injury scientists and clinicians. Therefore, our objective was to use a computational modelling method and develop a dynamic simulation in sports injury research. Agent-based modelling (ABM) was used to model the occurrence of sports injury in a synthetic athlete population. The ABM was developed based on sports injury causal frameworks and was applied in the context of distance running-related injury (RRI). Using the acute:chronic workload ratio (ACWR), we simulated the dynamic relationship between changes in weekly running distance and RRI through the manipulation of various 'athlete management tools'. The findings confirmed that building weekly running distances over time, even within the reported ACWR 'sweet spot', will eventually result in RRI as athletes reach and surpass their individual physical workload limits. Introducing training-related error into the simulation and the modelling of a 'hard ceiling' dynamic resulted in a higher RRI incidence proportion across the population at higher absolute workloads. The presented simulation offers a practical starting point to further apply more sophisticated computational models that can account for the complex nature of sports injury aetiology. Alongside traditional forms of scientific inquiry, the use of ABM and other simulation-based techniques could be considered as a complementary and alternative methodological approach in sports injury research. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  2. An Integrated Modeling Framework Forecasting Ecosystem Exposure-- A Systems Approach to the Cumulative Impacts of Multiple Stressors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, J. M.

    2013-12-01

    Freshwater habitats provide fishable, swimmable and drinkable resources and are a nexus of geophysical and biological processes. These processes in turn influence the persistence and sustainability of populations, communities and ecosystems. Climate change and landuse change encompass numerous stressors of potential exposure, including the introduction of toxic contaminants, invasive species, and disease in addition to physical drivers such as temperature and hydrologic regime. A systems approach that includes the scientific and technologic basis of assessing the health of ecosystems is needed to effectively protect human health and the environment. The Integrated Environmental Modeling Framework 'iemWatersheds' has been developed as a consistent and coherent means of forecasting the cumulative impact of co-occurring stressors. The Framework consists of three facilitating technologies: Data for Environmental Modeling (D4EM) that automates the collection and standardization of input data; the Framework for Risk Assessment of Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES) that manages the flow of information between linked models; and the Supercomputer for Model Uncertainty and Sensitivity Evaluation (SuperMUSE) that provides post-processing and analysis of model outputs, including uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Five models are linked within the Framework to provide multimedia simulation capabilities for hydrology and water quality processes: the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) predicts surface water and sediment runoff and associated contaminants; the Watershed Mercury Model (WMM) predicts mercury runoff and loading to streams; the Water quality Analysis and Simulation Program (WASP) predicts water quality within the stream channel; the Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) model scores physicochemical habitat quality for individual fish species; and the Bioaccumulation and Aquatic System Simulator (BASS) predicts fish growth, population dynamics and bioaccumulation

  3. Systems Biology Approach and Mathematical Modeling for Analyzing Phase-Space Switch During Epithelial-Mesenchymal Transition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simeoni, Chiara; Dinicola, Simona; Cucina, Alessandra; Mascia, Corrado; Bizzarri, Mariano

    2018-01-01

    In this report, we aim at presenting a viable strategy for the study of Epithelial-Mesenchymal Transition (EMT) and its opposite Mesenchymal-Epithelial Transition (MET) by means of a Systems Biology approach combined with a suitable Mathematical Modeling analysis. Precisely, it is shown how the presence of a metastable state, that is identified at a mesoscopic level of description, is crucial for making possible the appearance of a phase transition mechanism in the framework of fast-slow dynamics for Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs).

  4. Environmental and Economic Optimization Model for Electric System Planning in Ningxia, China: Inexact Stochastic Risk-Aversion Programming Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Ji

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The main goal of this paper is to provide a novel risk aversion model for long-term electric power system planning from the manager’s perspective with the consideration of various uncertainties. In the proposed method, interval parameter programming and two-stage stochastic programming are integrated to deal with the technical, economics, and policy uncertainties. Moreover, downside risk theory is introduced to balance the trade-off between the profit and risk according to the decision-maker’s risk aversion attitude. To verify the effectiveness and practical application of this approach, an inexact stochastic risk aversion model is developed for regional electric system planning and management in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, China. The series of solutions provide the decision-maker with the optimal investment strategy and operation management under different future emission reduction scenarios and risk-aversion levels. The results indicated that pollution control devices are still the main measures to achieve the current mitigation goal and the adjustment of generation structure would play an important role in the future cleaner electricity system with the stricter environmental policy. In addition, the model can be used for generating decision alternatives and helping decision-makers identify desired energy structure adjustment and pollutants/carbon mitigation abatement policies under various economic and system-reliability constraints.

  5. A new approach for formal behavioral modeling of protection services in antivirus systems

    OpenAIRE

    Norouzi, Monire; Parsa, Saeed; Mahjur, Ali

    2014-01-01

    Formal method techniques provides a suitable platform for the software development in software systems. Formal methods and formal verification is necessary to prove the correctness and improve performance of software systems in various levels of design and implementation, too. Security Discussion is an important issue in computer systems. Since the antivirus applications have very important role in computer systems security, verifying these applications is very essential and necessary. In thi...

  6. World University Ranking Systems: An Alternative Approach Using Partial Least Squares Path Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jajo, Nethal K.; Harrison, Jen

    2014-01-01

    University rankings are key drivers in national and institutional strategic planning. The increase in the number of university ranking systems and the diversity of methods and indicators used by these systems necessitate the development of an index that can measure a university's performance in all these systems at once. This article presents…

  7. Regional modeling approach for analyzing harmonic stability in radial power electronics based power system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yoon, Changwoo; Bai, Haofeng; Wang, Xiongfei

    2015-01-01

    Stability analysis of distributed power generation system becomes complex when there are many numbers of grid inverters in the system. In order to analyze system stability, the overall network impedance will be lumped and needs to be analyzed one by one. However, using a unified bulky transfer-fu...... and then it is expanded for generalizing its concept to an overall radial structured network....

  8. A Multi-Level Approach to Modeling Rapidly Growing Mega-Regions as a Coupled Human-Natural System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koch, J. A.; Tang, W.; Meentemeyer, R. K.

    2013-12-01

    The FUTure Urban-Regional Environment Simulation (FUTURES) integrates information on nonstationary drivers of land change (per capita land area demand, site suitability, and spatial structure of conversion events) into spatial-temporal projections of changes in landscape patterns (Meentemeyer et al., 2013). One striking feature of FUTURES is its patch-growth algorithm that includes feedback effects of former development events across several temporal and spatial scales: cell-level transition events are aggregated into patches of land change and their further growth is based on empirically derived parameters controlling its size, shape, and dispersion. Here, we augment the FUTURES modeling framework by expanding its multilevel structure and its representation of human decision making. The new modeling framework is hierarchically organized as nested subsystems including the latest theory on telecouplings in coupled human-natural systems (Liu et al., 2013). Each subsystem represents a specific level of spatial scale and embraces agents that have decision making authority at a particular level. The subsystems are characterized with regard to their spatial representation and are connected via flows of information (e.g. regulations and policies) or material (e.g. population migration). To provide a modeling framework that is applicable to a wide range of settings and geographical regions and to keep it computationally manageable, we implement a 'zooming factor' that allows to enable or disable subsystems (and hence the represented processes), based on the extent of the study region. The implementation of the FUTURES modeling framework for a specific case study follows the observational modeling approach described in Grimm et al. (2005), starting from the analysis of empirical data in order to capture the processes relevant for specific scales and to allow a rigorous calibration and validation of the model application. In this paper, we give an introduction to the basic

  9. Chaotic system synchronization with an unknown master model using a hybrid HOD active control approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Du Shengzhi [Department of EAD, ICT Faculty, Tshwane University of Technology, Pretoria 0001 (South Africa); French South Africa Technical Institute of Electronics (F' SATIE), Tshwane University of Technology, Pretoria 0001 (South Africa)], E-mail: dushengzhi@gmail.com; Wyk, Barend J. van; Qi Guoyuan; Tu Chunling [French South Africa Technical Institute of Electronics (F' SATIE), Tshwane University of Technology, Pretoria 0001 (South Africa)

    2009-11-15

    In this paper, a hybrid method using active control and a High Order Differentiator (HOD) methodology is proposed to synchronize chaotic systems. Compared to some traditional active control methods, this new method can synchronize chaotic systems where only output states of the master system are available, i.e. the system is considered a black box. The HOD is used to estimate the derivative information of the master system followed by an active control methodology relying on HOD information. The Qi hyperchaotic system is used to verify the performance of this hybrid method. The proposed method is also compared to some traditional methods. Experimental results show that the proposed method has high synchronization precision and speed and is robust against uncertainties in the master system. The circus implements of the proposed synchronizing scheme are included in this paper. The simulation results show the feasibility of the proposed scheme.

  10. Structured approaches to large-scale systems: Variational integrators for interconnected Lagrange-Dirac systems and structured model reduction on Lie groups

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parks, Helen Frances

    This dissertation presents two projects related to the structured integration of large-scale mechanical systems. Structured integration uses the considerable differential geometric structure inherent in mechanical motion to inform the design of numerical integration schemes. This process improves the qualitative properties of simulations and becomes especially valuable as a measure of accuracy over long time simulations in which traditional Gronwall accuracy estimates lose their meaning. Often, structured integration schemes replicate continuous symmetries and their associated conservation laws at the discrete level. Such is the case for variational integrators, which discretely replicate the process of deriving equations of motion from variational principles. This results in the conservation of momenta associated to symmetries in the discrete system and conservation of a symplectic form when applicable. In the case of Lagrange-Dirac systems, variational integrators preserve a discrete analogue of the Dirac structure preserved in the continuous flow. In the first project of this thesis, we extend Dirac variational integrators to accommodate interconnected systems. We hope this work will find use in the fields of control, where a controlled system can be thought of as a "plant" system joined to its controller, and in the approach of very large systems, where modular modeling may prove easier than monolithically modeling the entire system. The second project of the thesis considers a different approach to large systems. Given a detailed model of the full system, can we reduce it to a more computationally efficient model without losing essential geometric structures in the system? Asked without the reference to structure, this is the essential question of the field of model reduction. The answer there has been a resounding yes, with Principal Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) with snapshots rising as one of the most successful methods. Our project builds on previous work

  11. An Artificially Intelligent Physical Model-Checking Approach to Detect Switching-Related Attacks on Power Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    El Hariri, Mohamad [Florida Intl Univ., Miami, FL (United States); Faddel, Samy [Florida Intl Univ., Miami, FL (United States); Mohammed, Osama [Florida Intl Univ., Miami, FL (United States)

    2017-11-01

    Decentralized and hierarchical microgrid control strategies have lain the groundwork for shaping the future smart grid. Such control approaches require the cooperation between microgrid operators in control centers, intelligent microcontrollers, and remote terminal units via secure and reliable communication networks. In order to enhance the security and complement the work of network intrusion detection systems, this paper presents an artificially intelligent physical model-checking that detects tampered-with circuit breaker switching control commands whether, due to a cyber-attack or human error. In this technique, distributed agents, which are monitoring sectionalized areas of a given microgrid, will be trained and continuously adapted to verify that incoming control commands do not violate the physical system operational standards and do not put the microgrid in an insecure state. The potential of this approach has been tested by deploying agents that monitor circuit breakers status commands on a 14-bus IEEE benchmark system. The results showed the accuracy of the proposed framework in characterizing the power system and successfully detecting malicious and/or erroneous control commands.

  12. Analytical approach to ecophysiological forest modeling. Computer reference-information system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berezovskaya, F.S.; Karev, G.P.

    1994-11-01

    A great attention is directed now to problems associated with analysis and classification of the mathematical modeling methods to be applied for studying the structure and dynamics of plant (especially forest) communities, for accounting and planning of forestry activities, as well as for monitoring efforts. Among numerous models of plant objects and plant communities that differ in modeling purpose, as well as in the mechanisms and ways of description, in this paper has been selected a class of the so-called 'ecophysiological', or 'explaining', models, i.e. those involving, as variables, values with a direct ecophysiological interpretation. 69 refs

  13. Alberta's systems approach to chronic disease management and prevention utilizing the expanded chronic care model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delon, Sandra; Mackinnon, Blair

    2009-01-01

    Alberta's integrated approach to chronic disease management programming embraces client-centred care, supports self-management and facilitates care across the continuum. This paper presents strategies implemented through collaboration with primary care to improve care of individuals with chronic conditions, evaluation evidence supporting success and lessons learned from the Alberta perspective.

  14. [The development of an organizational socialization process model for new nurses using a system dynamics approach].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Soon-Ook

    2005-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the problems and relevant variables for effective Organizational Socialization of new nurses, to produce a causal map, to build up a simulation model and to test its validity. The basic data was collected from Sep. 2002 to July 2003. The Organizational Socialization process of new nurses was analyzed through a model simulation. The VENSIM 5.0b DSS program was used to develop the study model. This Model shows interrelation of these result variables: organizational commitment, job satisfaction, job performance, intention of leaving the work setting, decision making ability, and general results of Organizational Socialization. The model's factors are characteristic of organization and individual values, task-related knowledge and skills, and emotion and communication that affects new nurses' socialization process. These elements go through processes of anticipatory socialization, encounter, change and acquisition. The Model was devised to induce effective Organizational Socialization results within 24 months of its implementation. The basic model is the most efficient and will also contribute to the development of knowledge in the body of nursing. This study will provide proper direction for new Nurse's Organizational Socialization. Therefore, developing an Organizational Socialization Process Model is meaningful in a sense that it could provide a framework that could create effective Organizational Socialization for new nurses.

  15. A model for planning the chemical integrated system under uncertainty by the grey programming approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ren, Jingzheng; Tan, Shiyu; Dong, Lichun

    2013-01-01

    demand, and the production capacity have been considered as mutative variables, then an improved model in which some parameters are not constant has been developed and a new method to solve the grey linear programming has been proposed. In the grey programming model, the value of credibility can...

  16. Markov approach to evaluate the availability simulation model for power generation system in a thermal power plant ,

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Avdhesh Kr. Sharma

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, the availability of power plants has become increasingly important issue in most developed and developing countries. This paper aims to propose a methodology based on Markov approach to evaluate the availability simulation model for power generation system (Turbine in a thermal power plant under realistic working environment. The effects of occurrence of failure/course of actions and availability of repair facilities on system performance have been investigated. Higher availability of the components/equipments is inherently associated with their higher reliability and maintainability. The power generation system consists of five subsystems with four possible states: full working, reduced capacity, reduced efficiency and failed state. So, its availability should be carefully evaluated in order to foresee the performance of the power plant. The availability simulation model (Av. has been developed with the help of mathematical formulation based on Markov Birth-Death process using probabilistic approach. For this purpose, first differential equations have been generated. These equations are then solved using normalizing condition so as to determine the steady state availability of power generation system. In fact, availability analysis is very much effective in finding critical subsystems and deciding their preventive maintenance program for improving availability of the power plant as well as the power supply. From the graphs illustrated, the optimum values of failure/repair rates for maximum availability, of each subsystem is analyzed and then maintenance priorities are decided for all subsystems.The present paper highlights that in this system, Turbine governing subsystem is most sensitive demands more improvement in maintainability as compared to the other subsystems. While Turbine lubrication subsystem is least sensitive.

  17. A long-memory model of motor learning in the saccadic system: a regime-switching approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Aaron L; Shelhamer, Mark

    2013-08-01

    Maintenance of movement accuracy relies on motor learning, by which prior errors guide future behavior. One aspect of this learning process involves the accurate generation of predictions of movement outcome. These predictions can, for example, drive anticipatory movements during a predictive-saccade task. Predictive saccades are rapid eye movements made to anticipated future targets based on error information from prior movements. This predictive process exhibits long-memory (fractal) behavior, as suggested by inter-trial fluctuations. Here, we model this learning process using a regime-switching approach, which avoids the computational complexities associated with true long-memory processes. The resulting model demonstrates two fundamental characteristics. First, long-memory behavior can be mimicked by a system possessing no true long-term memory, producing model outputs consistent with human-subjects performance. In contrast, the popular two-state model, which is frequently used in motor learning, cannot replicate these findings. Second, our model suggests that apparent long-term memory arises from the trade-off between correcting for the most recent movement error and maintaining consistent long-term behavior. Thus, the model surprisingly predicts that stronger long-memory behavior correlates to faster learning during adaptation (in which systematic errors drive large behavioral changes); greater apparent long-term memory indicates more effective incorporation of error from the cumulative history across trials.

  18. An effective hierarchical model for the biomolecular covalent bond: an approach integrating artificial chemistry and an actual terrestrial life system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oohashi, Tsutomu; Ueno, Osamu; Maekawa, Tadao; Kawai, Norie; Nishina, Emi; Honda, Manabu

    2009-01-01

    Under the AChem paradigm and the programmed self-decomposition (PSD) model, we propose a hierarchical model for the biomolecular covalent bond (HBCB model). This model assumes that terrestrial organisms arrange their biomolecules in a hierarchical structure according to the energy strength of their covalent bonds. It also assumes that they have evolutionarily selected the PSD mechanism of turning biological polymers (BPs) into biological monomers (BMs) as an efficient biomolecular recycling strategy We have examined the validity and effectiveness of the HBCB model by coordinating two complementary approaches: biological experiments using existent terrestrial life, and simulation experiments using an AChem system. Biological experiments have shown that terrestrial life possesses a PSD mechanism as an endergonic, genetically regulated process and that hydrolysis, which decomposes a BP into BMs, is one of the main processes of such a mechanism. In simulation experiments, we compared different virtual self-decomposition processes. The virtual species in which the self-decomposition process mainly involved covalent bond cleavage from a BP to BMs showed evolutionary superiority over other species in which the self-decomposition process involved cleavage from BP to classes lower than BM. These converging findings strongly support the existence of PSD and the validity and effectiveness of the HBCB model.

  19. Modeling a hierarchical structure of factors influencing exploitation policy for water distribution systems using ISM approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jasiulewicz-Kaczmarek, Małgorzata; Wyczółkowski, Ryszard; Gładysiak, Violetta

    2017-12-01

    Water distribution systems are one of the basic elements of contemporary technical infrastructure of urban and rural areas. It is a complex engineering system composed of transmission networks and auxiliary equipment (e.g. controllers, checkouts etc.), scattered territorially over a large area. From the water distribution system operation point of view, its basic features are: functional variability, resulting from the need to adjust the system to temporary fluctuations in demand for water and territorial dispersion. The main research questions are: What external factors should be taken into account when developing an effective water distribution policy? Does the size and nature of the water distribution system significantly affect the exploitation policy implemented? These questions have shaped the objectives of research and the method of research implementation.

  20. A Novel Approach for Modeling Chemical Reaction in Generalized Fluid System Simulation Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sozen, Mehmet; Majumdar, Alok

    2002-01-01

    The Generalized Fluid System Simulation Program (GFSSP) is a computer code developed at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center for analyzing steady state and transient flow rates, pressures, temperatures, and concentrations in a complex flow network. The code, which performs system level simulation, can handle compressible and incompressible flows as well as phase change and mixture thermodynamics. Thermodynamic and thermophysical property programs, GASP, WASP and GASPAK provide the necessary data for fluids such as helium, methane, neon, nitrogen, carbon monoxide, oxygen, argon, carbon dioxide, fluorine, hydrogen, water, a hydrogen, isobutane, butane, deuterium, ethane, ethylene, hydrogen sulfide, krypton, propane, xenon, several refrigerants, nitrogen trifluoride and ammonia. The program which was developed out of need for an easy to use system level simulation tool for complex flow networks, has been used for the following purposes to name a few: Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) High Pressure Oxidizer Turbopump Secondary Flow Circuits, Axial Thrust Balance of the Fastrac Engine Turbopump, Pressurized Propellant Feed System for the Propulsion Test Article at Stennis Space Center, X-34 Main Propulsion System, X-33 Reaction Control System and Thermal Protection System, and International Space Station Environmental Control and Life Support System design. There has been an increasing demand for implementing a combustion simulation capability into GFSSP in order to increase its system level simulation capability of a liquid rocket propulsion system starting from the propellant tanks up to the thruster nozzle for spacecraft as well as launch vehicles. The present work was undertaken for addressing this need. The chemical equilibrium equations derived from the second law of thermodynamics and the energy conservation equation derived from the first law of thermodynamics are solved simultaneously by a Newton-Raphson method. The numerical scheme was implemented as a User

  1. A systems approach for the development of a sustainable community--the application of the sensitivity model (SM).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Shih-Liang; Huang, Shu-Li

    2004-09-01

    Corresponding to the concept of 'Think globally, act locally and plan regionally' of sustainable development, this paper discusses the approach of planning a sustainable community in terms of systems thinking. We apply a systems tool, the sensitivity model (SM), to build a model of the development of the community of Ping-Ding, located adjacent to the Yang-Ming-Shan National Park, Taiwan. The major issue in the development of Ping-Ding is the conflict between environmental conservation and the development of a local tourism industry. With the involvement of local residents, planners, and interest groups, a system model of 26 variables was defined to identify characteristics of Ping-Ding through pattern recognition. Two scenarios concerning the sustainable development of Ping-Ding are simulated with interlinked feedbacks from variables. The results of the analysis indicate that the development of Ping-Ding would be better served by the planning of agriculture and the tourism industry. The advantages and shortfalls of applying SM in the current planning environment of Taiwan are also discussed to conclude this paper.

  2. A system dynamics approach to develop a recovery model in the Malaysian automotive industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohamad-Ali, N.; Ghazilla, R. A. R.; Abdul-Rashid, S. H.; Sakundarini, N.; Ahmad-Yazid, A.; Stephenie, L.

    2017-06-01

    Design strategies play a significant role to enhance recovery effectiveness at the end of product life cycle. By reviewing previous study, there are many factors involved to enhance recovery effectiveness but limited to linking design strategies factors in holistic and dynamics view. Proposed method are explained and an initial model for end-of-life vehicles (ELVs) recovery model illustrated in graphical and numerical data is presented. However this is limited to authors understanding and preliminary data which requires collaboration between designers and other stakeholders to develop a model based on actual situation.

  3. Systemic approaches to biodegradation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trigo, Almudena; Valencia, Alfonso; Cases, Ildefonso

    2009-01-01

    Biodegradation, the ability of microorganisms to remove complex chemicals from the environment, is a multifaceted process in which many biotic and abiotic factors are implicated. The recent accumulation of knowledge about the biochemistry and genetics of the biodegradation process, and its categorization and formalization in structured databases, has recently opened the door to systems biology approaches, where the interactions of the involved parts are the main subject of study, and the system is analysed as a whole. The global analysis of the biodegradation metabolic network is beginning to produce knowledge about its structure, behaviour and evolution, such as its free-scale structure or its intrinsic robustness. Moreover, these approaches are also developing into useful tools such as predictors for compounds' degradability or the assisted design of artificial pathways. However, it is the environmental application of high-throughput technologies from the genomics, metagenomics, proteomics and metabolomics that harbours the most promising opportunities to understand the biodegradation process, and at the same time poses tremendous challenges from the data management and data mining point of view.

  4. Mathematical modelling of the mass-spring-damper system - A fractional calculus approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesus Bernal Alvarado

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the fractional differential equation for the mass-spring-damper system in terms of the fractional time derivatives of the Caputo type is considered. In order to be consistent with the physical equation, a new parameter is introduced. This parameter char­acterizes the existence of fractional components in the system. A relation between the fractional order time derivative and the new parameter is found. Different particular cases are analyzed

  5. An OMG model-based approach for aligning information systems requirements and architectures with business

    OpenAIRE

    Salgado, Carlos Eduardo Rodrigues Teixeira

    2017-01-01

    Tese de Doutoramento (Programa Doutoral em Tecnologias e Sistemas de Informação) The challenges involved in developing information systems (which are able to adapt to rapidly changing business and technological conditions) are directly related to the importance of their alignment with the business counterpart. These challenges comprise issues that cross management and information systems domains, relating and aligning them in order to attain superior performance for the organiz...

  6. Non-fragile observer-based output feedback control for polytopic uncertain system under distributed model predictive control approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Kaiqun; Song, Yan; Zhang, Sunjie; Zhong, Zhaozhun

    2017-07-01

    In this paper, a non-fragile observer-based output feedback control problem for the polytopic uncertain system under distributed model predictive control (MPC) approach is discussed. By decomposing the global system into some subsystems, the computation complexity is reduced, so it follows that the online designing time can be saved.Moreover, an observer-based output feedback control algorithm is proposed in the framework of distributed MPC to deal with the difficulties in obtaining the states measurements. In this way, the presented observer-based output-feedback MPC strategy is more flexible and applicable in practice than the traditional state-feedback one. What is more, the non-fragility of the controller has been taken into consideration in favour of increasing the robustness of the polytopic uncertain system. After that, a sufficient stability criterion is presented by using Lyapunov-like functional approach, meanwhile, the corresponding control law and the upper bound of the quadratic cost function are derived by solving an optimisation subject to convex constraints. Finally, some simulation examples are employed to show the effectiveness of the method.

  7. Quasi-homogenous approximation for description of the properties of dispersed systems. The basic approaches to model hardening processes in nanodispersed silica systems. Part 1. Statical polymer method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    KUDRYAVTSEV Pavel Gennadievich

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with possibilities to use quasi-homogenous approximation for discription of properties of dispersed systems. The authors applied statistical polymer method based on consideration of average structures of all possible macromolecules of the same weight. The equiations which allow evaluating many additive parameters of macromolecules and the systems with them were deduced. Statistical polymer method makes it possible to model branched, cross-linked macromolecules and the systems with them which are in equilibrium or non-equilibrium state. Fractal analysis of statistical polymer allows modeling different types of random fractal and other objects examined with the mehods of fractal theory. The method of fractal polymer can be also applied not only to polymers but also to composites, gels, associates in polar liquids and other packaged systems. There is also a description of the states of colloid solutions of silica oxide from the point of view of statistical physics. This approach is based on the idea that colloid solution of silica dioxide – sol of silica dioxide – consists of enormous number of interacting particles which are always in move. The paper is devoted to the research of ideal system of colliding but not interacting particles of sol. The analysis of behavior of silica sol was performed according to distribution Maxwell-Boltzmann and free path length was calculated. Using this data the number of the particles which can overcome the potential barrier in collision was calculated. To model kinetics of sol-gel transition different approaches were studied.

  8. A Tiered Approach to Retinopathy of Prematurity Screening (TARP) Using a Weight Gain Predictive Model and a Telemedicine System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurwin, Jaclyn; Tomlinson, Lauren A; Quinn, Graham E; Ying, Gui-Shuang; Baumritter, Agnieshka; Binenbaum, Gil

    2017-01-05

    The Telemedicine Approaches to Evaluating Acute-Phase Retinopathy of Prematurity (e-ROP) Study telemedicine system of remote fundus image grading and The Children's Hospital of Philadelphia Retinopathy of Prematurity (CHOP-ROP) postnatal weight gain predictive model are 2 approaches for improving ROP screening efficiency. Current screening has low specificity for severe ROP. To describe a tiered approach to ROP screening (TARP) for identifying children who develop severe ROP using telemedicine and a predictive model synergistically. This investigation was a post hoc analysis of a cohort in the e-ROP Study (a multicenter prospective telemedicine study) and the Postnatal Growth and Retinopathy of Prematurity (G-ROP) Study (a multicenter retrospective cohort study). The setting was neonatal intensive care units at The Children's Hospital of Philadelphia and the Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania. Participants in the e-ROP Study were premature infants with a birth weight less than 1251 g and a known ROP outcome enrolled between May 25, 2011, and October 31, 2013. The G-ROP Study enrolled all infants undergoing ROP examinations with a known ROP outcome who were born between January 1, 2006, and December 31, 2011. The mean outcomes were the sensitivity for type 1 ROP, reductions in infants requiring imaging or examinations, numbers of imaging sessions and examinations, and total clinical encounters (imaging sessions and examinations combined). The following 4 screening approaches were evaluated: ROUTINE (only diagnostic examinations by an ophthalmologist), CHOP-ROP (birth weight and gestational age, with weekly weight gain initiating examinations when the risk cut point is surpassed), e-ROP IMAGING (trained reader grading of type 1 or 2 ROP initiates diagnostic examinations), and TARP (CHOP-ROP alarm initiates imaging, and imaging finding of severe ROP initiates diagnostic examinations). A total of 242 infants were included in the study, with a median birth

  9. Component- and system-level degradation modeling of digital Instrumentation and Control systems based on a Multi-State Physics Modeling Approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Wei; Di Maio, Francesco; Zio, Enrico

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A Multi-State Physics Modeling (MSPM) framework for reliability assessment is proposed. • Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is utilized to estimate the degradation state probability. • Due account is given to stochastic uncertainty and deterministic degradation progression. • The MSPM framework is applied to the reliability assessment of a digital I&C system. • Results are compared with the results obtained with a Markov Chain Model (MCM). - Abstract: A system-level degradation modeling is proposed for the reliability assessment of digital Instrumentation and Control (I&C) systems in Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). At the component level, we focus on the reliability assessment of a Resistance Temperature Detector (RTD), which is an important digital I&C component used to guarantee the safe operation of NPPs. A Multi-State Physics Model (MSPM) is built to describe this component degradation progression towards failure and Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is used to estimate the probability of sojourn in any of the previously defined degradation states, by accounting for both stochastic and deterministic processes that affect the degradation progression. The MC simulation relies on an integrated modeling of stochastic processes with deterministic aging of components that results to be fundamental for estimating the joint cumulative probability distribution of finding the component in any of the possible degradation states. The results of the application of the proposed degradation model to a digital I&C system of literature are compared with the results obtained by a Markov Chain Model (MCM). The integrated stochastic-deterministic process here proposed to drive the MC simulation is viable to integrate component-level models into a system-level model that would consider inter-system or/and inter-component dependencies and uncertainties.

  10. Dragon pulse information management system (DPIMS): A unique model-based approach to implementing domain agnostic system of systems and behaviors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Thomas S.

    2016-05-01

    The Global Information Network Architecture is an information technology based on Vector Relational Data Modeling, a unique computational paradigm, DoD network certified by USARMY as the Dragon Pulse Informa- tion Management System. This network available modeling environment for modeling models, where models are configured using domain relevant semantics and use network available systems, sensors, databases and services as loosely coupled component objects and are executable applications. Solutions are based on mission tactics, techniques, and procedures and subject matter input. Three recent ARMY use cases are discussed a) ISR SoS. b) Modeling and simulation behavior validation. c) Networked digital library with behaviors.

  11. Modeling Ontario regional electricity system demand using a mixed fixed and random coefficients approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hsiao, C.; Mountain, D.C.; Chan, M.W.L.; Tsui, K.Y. (University of Southern California, Los Angeles (USA) McMaster Univ., Hamilton, ON (Canada) Chinese Univ. of Hong Kong, Shatin)

    1989-12-01

    In examining the municipal peak and kilowatt-hour demand for electricity in Ontario, the issue of homogeneity across geographic regions is explored. A common model across municipalities and geographic regions cannot be supported by the data. Considered are various procedures which deal with this heterogeneity and yet reduce the multicollinearity problems associated with regional specific demand formulations. The recommended model controls for regional differences assuming that the coefficients of regional-seasonal specific factors are fixed and different while the coefficients of economic and weather variables are random draws from a common population for any one municipality by combining the information on all municipalities through a Bayes procedure. 8 tabs., 41 refs.

  12. Treatment of uncertainties in atmospheric chemical systems: A combined modeling and experimental approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pun, Betty Kong-Ling

    1998-12-01

    Uncertainty is endemic in modeling. This thesis is a two- phase program to understand the uncertainties in urban air pollution model predictions and in field data used to validate them. Part I demonstrates how to improve atmospheric models by analyzing the uncertainties in these models and using the results to guide new experimentation endeavors. Part II presents an experiment designed to characterize atmospheric fluctuations, which have significant implications towards the model validation process. A systematic study was undertaken to investigate the effects of uncertainties in the SAPRC mechanism for gas- phase chemistry in polluted atmospheres. The uncertainties of more than 500 parameters were compiled, including reaction rate constants, product coefficients, organic composition, and initial conditions. Uncertainty propagation using the Deterministic Equivalent Modeling Method (DEMM) revealed that the uncertainties in ozone predictions can be up to 45% based on these parametric uncertainties. The key parameters found to dominate the uncertainties of the predictions include photolysis rates of NO2, O3, and formaldehyde; the rate constant for nitric acid formation; and initial amounts of NOx and VOC. Similar uncertainty analysis procedures applied to two other mechanisms used in regional air quality models led to the conclusion that in the presence of parametric uncertainties, the mechanisms cannot be discriminated. Research efforts should focus on reducing parametric uncertainties in photolysis rates, reaction rate constants, and source terms. A new tunable diode laser (TDL) infrared spectrometer was designed and constructed to measure multiple pollutants simultaneously in the same ambient air parcels. The sensitivities of the one hertz measurements were 2 ppb for ozone, 1 ppb for NO, and 0.5 ppb for NO2. Meteorological data were also collected for wind, temperature, and UV intensity. The field data showed clear correlations between ozone, NO, and NO2 in the one

  13. Multiple Perspective Approach for the Development of Information Systems Based on Advanced Mathematical Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carugati, Andrea

    through negotiation and democratic decision making will it be possible for the team members to have their current weltanschauung represented in decision making. Thirdly, geographical distribution and loose coupling foster individualist rather than group behavior. The more the social tissue is disconnected...... to the customers of the system. The use of democratic decision making that brings together the team members on regular basis contributes to both the reconstruction of the social tissue and to the satisfaction of the development team as customer of the project. Fourth, the novelty of the technology created problems......This dissertation presents the results of a three-year long case study of an information systems development project where a scheduling and control system was developed for a manufacturing company. The project goal was to test the feasibility of a new technology called advanced mathematical...

  14. Psychosocial and Cultural Modeling in Human Computation Systems: A Gamification Approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanfilippo, Antonio P.; Riensche, Roderick M.; Haack, Jereme N.; Butner, R. Scott

    2013-11-20

    “Gamification”, the application of gameplay to real-world problems, enables the development of human computation systems that support decision-making through the integration of social and machine intelligence. One of gamification’s major benefits includes the creation of a problem solving environment where the influence of cognitive and cultural biases on human judgment can be curtailed through collaborative and competitive reasoning. By reducing biases on human judgment, gamification allows human computation systems to exploit human creativity relatively unhindered by human error. Operationally, gamification uses simulation to harvest human behavioral data that provide valuable insights for the solution of real-world problems.

  15. A novel modelling approach for condensing boilers based on hybrid dynamical systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Satyavada, H.; Baldi, S.

    2016-01-01

    Condensing boilers use waste heat from flue gases to pre-heat cold water entering the boiler. Flue gases are condensed into liquid form, thus recovering their latent heat of vaporization, which results in as much as 10%–12% increase in efficiency. Modeling these heat transfer phenomena is crucial to

  16. Improving Technology Acceptance Modeling for Disadvantaged Communities Using a Systems Engineering Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fletcher, Jordan L.

    2013-01-01

    Developing nations are poised to spend billions on information and communication technology (ICT) innovation in 2020. A study of the historical adoption of ICT in developing nations has indicated that their adoption patterns do not follow typical technology innovation adoption models. This study addressed the weaknesses found in existing…

  17. Approach to uncertainty assessment for fluid flow and contaminant transport modeling in heterogeneous groundwater systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, R.W.; Jacobson, E.A.; Conbere, W.

    1985-06-01

    There is a growing awareness of the need to quantify uncertainty in groundwater flow and transport model results. Regulatory organizations are beginning to request the statistical distributions of predicted contaminant arrival to the biosphere, so that realistic confidence intervals can be obtained for the modeling results. To meet these needs, methods are being developed to quantify uncertainty in the subsurface flow and transport analysis sequence. A method for evaluating this uncertainty, described in this paper, considers uncertainty in material properties and was applied to an example field problem. Our analysis begins by using field measurements of transmissivity and hydraulic head in a regional, parameter estimation method to obtain a calibrated fluid flow model and a covariance matrix of the parameter estimation errors. The calibrated model and the covariance matrix are next used in a conditional simulation mode to generate a large number of 'head realizations.' The specific pore water velocity distribution for each realization is calculated from the effective porosity, the aquifer parameter realization, and the associated head values. Each velocity distribution is used to obtain a transport solution for a contaminant originating from the same source for all realizations. The results are the statistical distributions for the outflow arrival times. The confidence intervals for contamination reaching the biosphere are obtained from the outflow statistical distributions. 20 refs., 12 figs

  18. SysML for systems engineering a model-based approach

    CERN Document Server

    Holt, Jon

    2013-01-01

    This new edition of this popular text has been fully updated to reflect SysML 1.3, the latest version of the standard, and the discussion has been extended to show the power of SysML as a tool for systems engineering in an MBSE context.

  19. Performance Management through a Balanced Scorecard - A SystemsDynamics Modelling Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Steen; Nielsen, Erland Hejn

    The object of this paper is to show how - normally separate practices - can be linked together to support the performance management system in a balanced scorecard framework. The monitor and learn of the strategy evaluation and the feedback process is important for the company to be on track...

  20. Forecasting the shortage of neurosurgeons in Iran using a system dynamics model approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sima Rafiei

    2018-01-01

    Conclusions: Shortage of neurosurgeons in some areas of the country relates to maldistribution of the specialists. Accordingly, there is a need to reconsider the allocation system for health professionals within the country instead of increasing the overall number of acceptance quota in training positions.

  1. Supporting Teachers in Identifying Students' Learning Styles in Learning Management Systems: An Automatic Student Modelling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graf, Sabine; Kinshuk; Liu, Tzu-Chien

    2009-01-01

    In learning management systems (LMSs), teachers have more difficulties to notice and know how individual students behave and learn in a course, compared to face-to-face education. Enabling teachers to know their students' learning styles and making students aware of their own learning styles increases teachers' and students' understanding about…

  2. A New Approach to Modeling the Cost of Ownership for Aircraft Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-08-01

    expensive airborne missiles (e.g., Maverick, SRAM ) are funded in separate program elements of their own. If an aircraft system generates requirements for...PNTS b-I p,y,b,u EIR -u p9Y RTOK (FH/MO)QPA pUF PREPGNp ( - DCR) ) BUE b pp PGEN~)~1b-I ~ SER. = SEt. SEF j J,y j CIDM - CIDMP + CIDME + CIDMEI

  3. Interleukin-6 promotes systemic lupus erythematosus progression with Treg suppression approach in a murine systemic lupus erythematosus model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Xiaoli; Wu, Yunyun; Diao, Huitian; Hao, Jianlei; Tian, Gaofei; Jia, Zhenghu; Li, Zheng; Xiong, Sidong; Wu, Zhenzhou; Wang, Puyue; Zhao, Liqing; Yin, Zhinan

    2014-11-01

    Our aim is to reveal the role of interleukin 6 (IL-6) in the pathogenesis of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in a murine model of SLE. Normal female C57BL/6 mice were immunized with syngeneic-activated lymphocyte-derived DNA (ALD-DNA) to induce SLE. Non-immunized mice were used as control. SLE-associated markers, including anti-double-stranded DNA (anti-dsDNA) Abs, urine protein, and kidney histopathology, were assayed to ensure the induction of the disease. Compared with control mice, ALD-DNA immunized mice exhibited high levels of anti-dsDNA Abs, IL-6 expression in vivo and in vitro. We also found that IL-6 knockout (IL-6KO) mice were resistant to ALD-DNA-induced SLE. The activation of CD4(+) T cells in immunized IL-6KO mice was lower than in immunized wild-type (Wt) mice. Intracellular cytokine staining showed that Foxp3 expression in immunized IL-6KO mice was higher than in immunized Wt mice, which might be associated with the disease severity. We further discovered that ALD-DNA-stimulated dendritic cells supernatants could result in higher IL-6 and TNF-α expression and could suppress Foxp3 expression. In addition, blocking IL-6 could up-regulate Foxp3 expression. Therefore, our findings show that IL-6 promotes the progression of SLE via suppressing Treg differentiation.

  4. Hybrid Quantum Mechanics/Molecular Mechanics/Coarse Grained Modeling: A Triple-Resolution Approach for Biomolecular Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sokkar, Pandian; Boulanger, Eliot; Thiel, Walter; Sanchez-Garcia, Elsa

    2015-04-14

    We present a hybrid quantum mechanics/molecular mechanics/coarse-grained (QM/MM/CG) multiresolution approach for solvated biomolecular systems. The chemically important active-site region is treated at the QM level. The biomolecular environment is described by an atomistic MM force field, and the solvent is modeled with the CG Martini force field using standard or polarizable (pol-CG) water. Interactions within the QM, MM, and CG regions, and between the QM and MM regions, are treated in the usual manner, whereas the CG-MM and CG-QM interactions are evaluated using the virtual sites approach. The accuracy and efficiency of our implementation is tested for two enzymes, chorismate mutase (CM) and p-hydroxybenzoate hydroxylase (PHBH). In CM, the QM/MM/CG potential energy scans along the reaction coordinate yield reaction energies that are too large, both for the standard and polarizable Martini CG water models, which can be attributed to adverse effects of using large CG water beads. The inclusion of an atomistic MM water layer (10 Å for uncharged CG water and 5 Å for polarizable CG water) around the QM region improves the energy profiles compared to the reference QM/MM calculations. In analogous QM/MM/CG calculations on PHBH, the use of the pol-CG description for the outer water does not affect the stabilization of the highly charged FADHOOH-pOHB transition state compared to the fully atomistic QM/MM calculations. Detailed performance analysis in a glycine-water model system indicates that computation times for QM energy and gradient evaluations at the density functional level are typically reduced by 40-70% for QM/MM/CG relative to fully atomistic QM/MM calculations.

  5. Quantitative assessment of key parameters in qualitative vulnerability methods applied in karst systems based on an integrated numerical modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doummar, Joanna; Kassem, Assaad

    2017-04-01

    In the framework of a three-year PEER (USAID/NSF) funded project, flow in a Karst system in Lebanon (Assal) dominated by snow and semi arid conditions was simulated and successfully calibrated using an integrated numerical model (MIKE-She 2016) based on high resolution input data and detailed catchment characterization. Point source infiltration and fast flow pathways were simulated by a bypass function and a high conductive lens respectively. The approach consisted of identifying all the factors used in qualitative vulnerability methods (COP, EPIK, PI, DRASTIC, GOD) applied in karst systems and to assess their influence on recharge signals in the different hydrological karst compartments (Atmosphere, Unsaturated zone and Saturated zone) based on the integrated numerical model. These parameters are usually attributed different weights according to their estimated impact on Groundwater vulnerability. The aim of this work is to quantify the importance of each of these parameters and outline parameters that are not accounted for in standard methods, but that might play a role in the vulnerability of a system. The spatial distribution of the detailed evapotranspiration, infiltration, and recharge signals from atmosphere to unsaturated zone to saturated zone was compared and contrasted among different surface settings and under varying flow conditions (e.g., in varying slopes, land cover, precipitation intensity, and soil properties as well point source infiltration). Furthermore a sensitivity analysis of individual or coupled major parameters allows quantifying their impact on recharge and indirectly on vulnerability. The preliminary analysis yields a new methodology that accounts for most of the factors influencing vulnerability while refining the weights attributed to each one of them, based on a quantitative approach.

  6. MOBILITY: A SYSTEMS APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mykola I. Striuk

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available A comprehensive study on the problem of mobility in the socio-educational and technical systems was carried out: the evolution of the concept of mobility in scientific sources of XIX–XXI centuries was analyzed and the new sources on the issue of mobility introduced into scientific circulation, the interrelation of the types of mobility in the socio-pedagogical and technical systems are theoretically grounded, an integrative model of mobility in the information society is proposed. The major trends in academic mobility are identified (the transition from student mobility to mobility programs and educational services providers, the new mobility programs (franchising, double/joint degrees, combinations, nostrification etc. are characterized. The new types of mobility providers are reviewed and attention is focused on virtual universities that are now the basis of virtual mobility of students and activities which are based on the use of new ICT in higher education, especially – the Internet and mobile learning environments.

  7. Environmental management: A system approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petak, William J.

    1981-05-01

    This paper presents a system framework whose purpose is to improve understanding of environmental management. By analyzing the links between elements of the environmental management system, it is possible to construct a model that aids thinking systematically about the decision-making subsystem, and other subsystems, of the entire environmental management system. Through a multidisciplinary environmental approach, each of the individual subsystems is able to adapt to threats and opportunities. The fields of government, market economics, social responsibility and ecology, for example, are so complex that it is extremely difficult to develop a framework that gives full consideration to all aspects. This paper, through the application of a highly idealized system framework, attempts to show the general relationships that exist between complex system elements.

  8. Towards a system level understanding of non-model organisms sampled from the environment: a network biology approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tim D Williams

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The acquisition and analysis of datasets including multi-level omics and physiology from non-model species, sampled from field populations, is a formidable challenge, which so far has prevented the application of systems biology approaches. If successful, these could contribute enormously to improving our understanding of how populations of living organisms adapt to environmental stressors relating to, for example, pollution and climate. Here we describe the first application of a network inference approach integrating transcriptional, metabolic and phenotypic information representative of wild populations of the European flounder fish, sampled at seven estuarine locations in northern Europe with different degrees and profiles of chemical contaminants. We identified network modules, whose activity was predictive of environmental exposure and represented a link between molecular and morphometric indices. These sub-networks represented both known and candidate novel adverse outcome pathways representative of several aspects of human liver pathophysiology such as liver hyperplasia, fibrosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma. At the molecular level these pathways were linked to TNF alpha, TGF beta, PDGF, AGT and VEGF signalling. More generally, this pioneering study has important implications as it can be applied to model molecular mechanisms of compensatory adaptation to a wide range of scenarios in wild populations.

  9. Towards a system level understanding of non-model organisms sampled from the environment: a network biology approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Tim D; Turan, Nil; Diab, Amer M; Wu, Huifeng; Mackenzie, Carolynn; Bartie, Katie L; Hrydziuszko, Olga; Lyons, Brett P; Stentiford, Grant D; Herbert, John M; Abraham, Joseph K; Katsiadaki, Ioanna; Leaver, Michael J; Taggart, John B; George, Stephen G; Viant, Mark R; Chipman, Kevin J; Falciani, Francesco

    2011-08-01

    The acquisition and analysis of datasets including multi-level omics and physiology from non-model species, sampled from field populations, is a formidable challenge, which so far has prevented the application of systems biology approaches. If successful, these could contribute enormously to improving our understanding of how populations of living organisms adapt to environmental stressors relating to, for example, pollution and climate. Here we describe the first application of a network inference approach integrating transcriptional, metabolic and phenotypic information representative of wild populations of the European flounder fish, sampled at seven estuarine locations in northern Europe with different degrees and profiles of chemical contaminants. We identified network modules, whose activity was predictive of environmental exposure and represented a link between molecular and morphometric indices. These sub-networks represented both known and candidate novel adverse outcome pathways representative of several aspects of human liver pathophysiology such as liver hyperplasia, fibrosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma. At the molecular level these pathways were linked to TNF alpha, TGF beta, PDGF, AGT and VEGF signalling. More generally, this pioneering study has important implications as it can be applied to model molecular mechanisms of compensatory adaptation to a wide range of scenarios in wild populations.

  10. Eyeblink Classical Conditioning and Post Traumatic Stress Disorder – A Model Systems Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernard G Schreurs

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Not everyone exposed to trauma suffers flashbacks, bad dreams, numbing, fear, anxiety, sleeplessness, hyper-vigilance, hyperarousal, or an inability to cope, but those who do may suffer from post traumatic stress disorder (PTSD. PTSD is a major physical and mental health problem for military personnel and civilians exposed to trauma. There is still debate about the incidence and prevalence of PTSD especially among the military, but for those who are diagnosed, behavioral therapy and drug treatment strategies have proven to be less than effective. A number of these treatment strategies are based on rodent fear conditioning research and are capable of treating only some of the symptoms because the extinction of fear does not deal with the various forms of hyper-vigilance and hyperarousal experienced by people with PTSD. To help address this problem, we have developed a preclinical eyeblink classical conditioning model of PTSD in which conditioning and hyperarousal can both be extinguished. We review this model and discuss findings showing that unpaired stimulus presentations can be effective in reducing levels of conditioning and hyperarousal even when unconditioned stimulus intensity is reduced to the point where it is barely capable of eliciting a response. These procedures have direct implications for the treatment of PTSD and could be implemented in a virtual reality environment.

  11. Eyeblink classical conditioning and post-traumatic stress disorder - a model systems approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schreurs, Bernard G; Burhans, Lauren B

    2015-01-01

    Not everyone exposed to trauma suffers flashbacks, bad dreams, numbing, fear, anxiety, sleeplessness, hyper-vigilance, hyperarousal, or an inability to cope, but those who do may suffer from post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). PTSD is a major physical and mental health problem for military personnel and civilians exposed to trauma. There is still debate about the incidence and prevalence of PTSD especially among the military, but for those who are diagnosed, behavioral therapy and drug treatment strategies have proven to be less than effective. A number of these treatment strategies are based on rodent fear conditioning research and are capable of treating only some of the symptoms because the extinction of fear does not deal with the various forms of hyper-vigilance and hyperarousal experienced by people with PTSD. To help address this problem, we have developed a preclinical eyeblink classical conditioning model of PTSD in which conditioning and hyperarousal can both be extinguished. We review this model and discuss findings showing that unpaired stimulus presentations can be effective in reducing levels of conditioning and hyperarousal even when unconditioned stimulus intensity is reduced to the point where it is barely capable of eliciting a response. These procedures have direct implications for the treatment of PTSD and could be implemented in a virtual reality environment.

  12. Establishing a regulatory value chain model: An innovative approach to strengthening medicines regulatory systems in resource-constrained settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chahal, Harinder Singh; Kashfipour, Farrah; Susko, Matt; Feachem, Neelam Sekhri; Boyle, Colin

    2016-05-01

    Medicines Regulatory Authorities (MRAs) are an essential part of national health systems and are charged with protecting and promoting public health through regulation of medicines. However, MRAs in resource-constrained settings often struggle to provide effective oversight of market entry and use of health commodities. This paper proposes a regulatory value chain model (RVCM) that policymakers and regulators can use as a conceptual framework to guide investments aimed at strengthening regulatory systems. The RVCM incorporates nine core functions of MRAs into five modules: (i) clear guidelines and requirements; (ii) control of clinical trials; (iii) market authorization of medical products; (iv) pre-market quality control; and (v) post-market activities. Application of the RVCM allows national stakeholders to identify and prioritize investments according to where they can add the most value to the regulatory process. Depending on the economy, capacity, and needs of a country, some functions can be elevated to a regional or supranational level, while others can be maintained at the national level. In contrast to a "one size fits all" approach to regulation in which each country manages the full regulatory process at the national level, the RVCM encourages leveraging the expertise and capabilities of other MRAs where shared processes strengthen regulation. This value chain approach provides a framework for policymakers to maximize investment impact while striving to reach the goal of safe, affordable, and rapidly accessible medicines for all.

  13. A stochastic logical system approach to model and optimal control of cyclic variation of residual gas fraction in combustion engines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Yuhu; Kumar, Madan; Shen, Tielong

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • An in-cylinder pressure based measuring method for the RGF is derived. • A stochastic logical dynamical model is proposed to represent the transient behavior of the RGF. • The receding horizon controller is designed to reduce the variance of the RGF. • The effectiveness of the proposed model and control approach is validated by the experimental evidence. - Abstract: In four stroke internal combustion engines, residual gas from the previous cycle is an important factor influencing the combustion quality of the current cycle, and the residual gas fraction (RGF) is a popular index to monitor the influence of residual gas. This paper investigates the cycle-to-cycle transient behavior of the RGF in the view of systems theory and proposes a multi-valued logic-based control strategy for attenuation of RGF fluctuation. First, an in-cylinder pressure sensor-based method for measuring the RGF is provided by following the physics of the in-cylinder transient state of four-stroke internal combustion engines. Then, the stochastic property of the RGF is examined based on statistical data obtained by conducting experiments on a full-scale gasoline engine test bench. Based on the observation of the examination, a stochastic logical transient model is proposed to represent the cycle-to-cycle transient behavior of the RGF, and with the model an optimal feedback control law, which targets on rejection of the RGF fluctuation, is derived in the framework of stochastic logical system theory. Finally, experimental results are demonstrated to show the effectiveness of the proposed model and the control strategy.

  14. Hybrid intelligence systems and artificial neural network (ANN approach for modeling of surface roughness in drilling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ch. Sanjay

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In machining processes, drilling operation is material removal process that has been widely used in manufacturing since industrial revolution. The useful life of cutting tool and its operating conditions largely controls the economics of machining operations. Drilling is most frequently performed material removing process and is used as a preliminary step for many operations, such as reaming, tapping, and boring. Drill wear has a bad effect on the surface finish and dimensional accuracy of the work piece. The surface finish of a machined part is one of the most important quality characteristics in manufacturing industries. The primary objective of this research is the prediction of suitable parameters for surface roughness in drilling. Cutting speed, cutting force, and machining time were given as inputs to the adaptive fuzzy neural network and neuro-fuzzy analysis for estimating the values of surface roughness by using 2, 3, 4, and 5 membership functions. The best structures were selected based on minimum of summation of square with the actual values with the estimated values by artificial neural fuzzy inference system (ANFIS and neuro-fuzzy systems. For artificial neural network (ANN analysis, the number of neurons was selected from 1, 2, 3, … , 20. The learning rate was selected as .5 and .5 smoothing factor was used. The inputs were selected as cutting speed, feed, machining time, and thrust force. The best structures of neural networks were selected based on the criteria as the minimum of summation of square with the actual value of surface roughness. Drilling experiments with 10 mm size were performed at two cutting speeds and feeds. Comparative analysis has been done between the actual values and the estimated values obtained by ANFIS, neuro-fuzzy, and ANN analysis.

  15. The Effects of Modern-Day Cropland and Pasture Management on Vegetation Fire: An Earth System Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabin, S. S.; Malyshev, S.; Shevliakova, E.; Pacala, S. W.

    2014-12-01

    Fire is a major component of the global carbon cycle, with some estimates of the associated emissions reaching 2.5 PgC/yr. This and the other impacts of biomass burning have driven efforts to improve its simulation in Earth system models. Recent global fire models usually include both bioclimatic and anthropogenic drivers of fire, with the latter (via population density and sometimes economic status) serving to increase or suppress burned area. Some models have added the representation of fire used in deforestation and cropland management, the extent and seasonal timing of which may not be accounted for by the usual approach to anthropogenic influence. Human land use can also limit fire by fragmenting landscapes, but this process is not included in most global models. Moreover, although people often use fire to manage grazing lands for livestock, these practices have not been explicitly modeled (except as performed by pre-industrial societies). This could be important for regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, where the seasonality of pasture burning tends to differ from that of other lands, potentially influencing savanna-forest dynamics. Recent efforts elucidating the effects of cropland and pasture on fire regimes at regional scales provide insight into these processes. Using this new understanding, we have developed a fire model with structurally distinct modules for burning of croplands, pasture, and primary and secondary lands, as well as fire use for deforestation. Parameters for each are rigorously constrained using remote-sensing observations of burned area. This structure allows us to disentangle agricultural practices and fragmentation effects from the endogenous processes driving fire on non-agricultural land, resulting in a better ability to simulate how fire works at large scales. This is critical for modeling the future of fire and all the parts of the Earth system that it affects, including vegetation distributions, nutrient cycling, and biosphere

  16. An Advanced Computational Approach to System of Systems Analysis & Architecting Using Agent-Based Behavioral Model: Phase 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-18

    for each valid interface between the systems. The factor is proportional to the count of feasible interfaces in the meta-architecture framework... proportional to the square root of the sector area being covered by each type of system, plus some time for transmitting data to, and double checking by, the...22] J.-H. Ahn, "An Archietcture Description method for Acknowledged System of Systems based on Federated Architeture ," in Advanced Science and

  17. Modeling & Analysisng of Economic Behaviour of Insurance Acceptance of Wheat crop by using of Thinking System Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    hamid balali

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Unsustainability and precarious conditions of agricultural production have caused this sector be associated with risk . Crops insurance is efficient tool for controlling and reducing production and market risk and stabilizing farmers' income. In this study, the thinking system approach by using of I Think software is used for analyzing and modeling of the effects of different alternatives of policies on wheat insurance acceptance. The results show that the decision making process of insurance acceptance is function of some variables including of probability of brooz khesarat, amount of brooz khesarat, share of farmer’s insurance payment, gross return of fermers and maximum tahood of bimegar payments. Also, by increasing of the probability of brooz khesarat the number of insurance acceptance will increaseal production have caused this sector be associated with risk . Crops insurance is efficient tool for controlling and reducing production and market risk and stabilizing farmers' income. In .

  18. What can be learned from computer modeling? Comparing expository and modeling approaches to teaching dynamic systems behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Borkulo, S.P.; van Joolingen, W.R.; Savelsbergh, E.R.; de Jong, T.

    2012-01-01

    Computer modeling has been widely promoted as a means to attain higher order learning outcomes. Substantiating these benefits, however, has been problematic due to a lack of proper assessment tools. In this study, we compared computer modeling with expository instruction, using a tailored assessment

  19. Gene doping detection: evaluation of approach for direct detection of gene transfer using erythropoietin as a model system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baoutina, A; Coldham, T; Bains, G S; Emslie, K R

    2010-08-01

    As clinical gene therapy has progressed toward realizing its potential, concern over misuse of the technology to enhance performance in athletes is growing. Although 'gene doping' is banned by the World Anti-Doping Agency, its detection remains a major challenge. In this study, we developed a methodology for direct detection of the transferred genetic material and evaluated its feasibility for gene doping detection in blood samples from athletes. Using erythropoietin (EPO) as a model gene and a simple in vitro system, we developed real-time PCR assays that target sequences within the transgene complementary DNA corresponding to exon/exon junctions. As these junctions are absent in the endogenous gene due to their interruption by introns, the approach allows detection of trace amounts of a transgene in a large background of the endogenous gene. Two developed assays and one commercial gene expression assay for EPO were validated. On the basis of ability of these assays to selectively amplify transgenic DNA and analysis of literature on testing of gene transfer in preclinical and clinical gene therapy, it is concluded that the developed approach would potentially be suitable to detect gene doping through gene transfer by analysis of small volumes of blood using regular out-of-competition testing.

  20. Activity System Theory Approach to Healthcare Information System

    OpenAIRE

    Bai, Guohua

    2004-01-01

    Healthcare information system is a very complex system and has to be approached from systematic perspectives. This paper presents an Activity System Theory (ATS) approach by integrating system thinking and social psychology. First part of the paper, the activity system theory is presented, especially a recursive model of human activity system is introduced. A project ‘Integrated Mobile Information System for Diabetic Healthcare (IMIS)’ is then used to demonstrate a practical application of th...

  1. Evaluating a novel tiered scarcity adjusted water budget and pricing structure using a holistic systems modelling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahin, Oz; Bertone, Edoardo; Beal, Cara; Stewart, Rodney A

    2018-06-01

    Population growth, coupled with declining water availability and changes in climatic conditions underline the need for sustainable and responsive water management instruments. Supply augmentation and demand management are the two main strategies used by water utilities. Water demand management has long been acknowledged as a least-cost strategy to maintain water security. This can be achieved in a variety of ways, including: i) educating consumers to limit their water use; ii) imposing restrictions/penalties; iii) using smart and/or efficient technologies; and iv) pricing mechanisms. Changing water consumption behaviours through pricing or restrictions is challenging as it introduces more social and political issues into the already complex water resources management process. This paper employs a participatory systems modelling approach for: (1) evaluating various forms of a proposed tiered scarcity adjusted water budget and pricing structure, and (2) comparing scenario outcomes against the traditional restriction policy regime. System dynamics modelling was applied since it can explicitly account for the feedbacks, interdependencies, and non-linear relations that inherently characterise the water tariff (price)-demand-revenue system. A combination of empirical water use data, billing data and customer feedback on future projected water bills facilitated the assessment of the suitability and likelihood of the adoption of scarcity-driven tariff options for a medium-sized city within Queensland, Australia. Results showed that the tiered scarcity adjusted water budget and pricing structure presented was preferable to restrictions since it could maintain water security more equitably with the lowest overall long-run marginal cost. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. An integrated modeling approach to support management decisions of coupled groundwater-agricultural systems under multiple uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagos Subagadis, Yohannes; Schütze, Niels; Grundmann, Jens

    2015-04-01

    The planning and implementation of effective water resources management strategies need an assessment of multiple (physical, environmental, and socio-economic) issues, and often requires new research in which knowledge of diverse disciplines are combined in a unified methodological and operational frameworks. Such integrative research to link different knowledge domains faces several practical challenges. Such complexities are further compounded by multiple actors frequently with conflicting interests and multiple uncertainties about the consequences of potential management decisions. A fuzzy-stochastic multiple criteria decision analysis tool was developed in this study to systematically quantify both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties associated with complex hydrosystems management. It integrated physical process-based models, fuzzy logic, expert involvement and stochastic simulation within a general framework. Subsequently, the proposed new approach is applied to a water-scarce coastal arid region water management problem in northern Oman, where saltwater intrusion into a coastal aquifer due to excessive groundwater extraction for irrigated agriculture has affected the aquifer sustainability, endangering associated socio-economic conditions as well as traditional social structure. Results from the developed method have provided key decision alternatives which can serve as a platform for negotiation and further exploration. In addition, this approach has enabled to systematically quantify both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties associated with the decision problem. Sensitivity analysis applied within the developed tool has shown that the decision makers' risk aversion and risk taking attitude may yield in different ranking of decision alternatives. The developed approach can be applied to address the complexities and uncertainties inherent in water resources systems to support management decisions, while serving as a platform for stakeholder participation.

  3. On the roto-translatory internal motions of a three layer non-isobarycentric Earth model: a Lagrangian system approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Escapa, Alberto; Fukushima, Toshio

    2010-05-01

    The internal structure of numerous celestial bodies are well approximated by means of a three layer model composed of a solid external layer, which encloses a fluid layer containing a solid body. An analysis of the inner dynamics of this model can provide some constrains on its rheological characteristics; an information that in many situations is only accessible through this indirect way. In addition, the understanding of this kind of motions, especially of those associated with a rigid displacement (a rotation or a relative translation) of the solid layers, is of primary importance to establish with enough accuracy the definition of the terrestrial reference frames. In the Earth case, most approaches to this formidable problem rely on the numerical solution of the respective elastic field equations, once they have been projected on a set of spherical harmonics functions of a given degree. Due to its intrinsic nature these numerical methods do not provide by themselves much insight into the internal dynamics, hence the interest to develop simpler dynamical models that reproduces the main characteristics of the motion and allows obtaining analytical approximate solutions of the problem. To this aim, and as a first stage, we have considered the internal dynamics of a simple Earth model made up of a spherical rigid mantle, an inviscid, homogeneous fluid outer core and a spherical rigid inner core. Initially the barycenters of all the constituents are located at the same point (isobarycentric model) and the whole system rotates with constant angular velocity around the figure axis. When this situation is perturbed both the motions of the fluid and of the solid layers depart from the reference uniform rotation. However, following Busse (1974) we have assumed that the motion of the mantle is the same as in the unperturbed state, and that the inner core dynamics only suffers a variation of oscillatory nature in the translational motion of its barycenter. As a consequence

  4. Applying a System Dynamics Approach for Modeling Groundwater Dynamics to Depletion under Different Economical and Climate Change Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamid Balali

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In the recent decades, due to many different factors, including climate change effects towards be warming and lower precipitation, as well as some structural policies such as more intensive harvesting of groundwater and low price of irrigation water, the level of groundwater has decreased in most plains of Iran. The objective of this study is to model groundwater dynamics to depletion under different economic policies and climate change by using a system dynamics approach. For this purpose a dynamic hydro-economic model which simultaneously simulates the farmer’s economic behavior, groundwater aquifer dynamics, studied area climatology factors and government economical policies related to groundwater, is developed using STELLA 10.0.6. The vulnerability of groundwater balance is forecasted under three scenarios of climate including the Dry, Nor and Wet and also, different scenarios of irrigation water and energy pricing policies. Results show that implementation of some economic policies on irrigation water and energy pricing can significantly affect on groundwater exploitation and its volume balance. By increasing of irrigation water price along with energy price, exploitation of groundwater will improve, in so far as in scenarios S15 and S16, studied area’s aquifer groundwater balance is positive at the end of planning horizon, even in Dry condition of precipitation. Also, results indicate that climate change can affect groundwater recharge. It can generally be expected that increases in precipitation would produce greater aquifer recharge rates.

  5. Real-time PCR Machine System Modeling and a Systematic Approach for the Robust Design of a Real-time PCR-on-a-Chip System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Da-Sheng Lee

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Chip-based DNA quantification systems are widespread, and used in many point-of-care applications. However, instruments for such applications may not be maintained or calibrated regularly. Since machine reliability is a key issue for normal operation, this study presents a system model of the real-time Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR machine to analyze the instrument design through numerical experiments. Based on model analysis, a systematic approach was developed to lower the variation of DNA quantification and achieve a robust design for a real-time PCR-on-a-chip system. Accelerated lift testing was adopted to evaluate the reliability of the chip prototype. According to the life test plan, this proposed real-time PCR-on-a-chip system was simulated to work continuously for over three years with similar reproducibility in DNA quantification. This not only shows the robustness of the lab-on-a-chip system, but also verifies the effectiveness of our systematic method for achieving a robust design.

  6. Towards representing human behavior and decision making in Earth system models. An overview of techniques and approaches

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Müller-Hansen, Finn; Schlüter, Maja; Maes, Michael; Donges, Jonathan F.; Kolb, Jakob J.; Thonicke, Kirsten; Heitzig, Jobst

    2017-01-01

    Today, humans have a critical impact on the Earth system and vice versa, which can generate complex feedback processes between social and ecological dynamics. Integrating human behavior into formal Earth system models (ESMs), however, requires crucial modeling assumptions about actors and their

  7. A Novel Observation-Guided Approach for Evaluating Mesoscale Convective Systems Simulated by the DOE ACME Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Z.; Ma, P. L.; Hardin, J. C.; Houze, R.

    2017-12-01

    Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are the largest type of convective storms that develop when convection aggregates and induces mesoscale circulation features. Over North America, MCSs contribute over 60% of the total warm-season precipitation and over half of the extreme daily precipitation in the central U.S. Our recent study (Feng et al. 2016) found that the observed increases in springtime total and extreme rainfall in this region are dominated by increased frequency and intensity of long-lived MCSs*. To date, global climate models typically do not run at a resolution high enough to explicitly simulate individual convective elements and may not have adequate process representations for MCSs, resulting in a large deficiency in projecting changes of the frequency of extreme precipitation events in future climate. In this study, we developed a novel observation-guided approach specifically designed to evaluate simulated MCSs in the Department of Energy's climate model, Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME). The ACME model has advanced treatments for convection and subgrid variability and for this study is run at 25 km and 100 km grid spacings. We constructed a robust MCS database consisting of over 500 MCSs from 3 warm-season observations by applying a feature-tracking algorithm to 4-km resolution merged geostationary satellite and 3-D NEXRAD radar network data over the Continental US. This high-resolution MCS database is then down-sampled to the 25 and 100 km ACME grids to re-characterize key MCS properties. The feature-tracking algorithm is adapted with the adjusted characteristics to identify MCSs from ACME model simulations. We demonstrate that this new analysis framework is useful for evaluating ACME's warm-season precipitation statistics associated with MCSs, and provides insights into the model process representations related to extreme precipitation events for future improvement. *Feng, Z., L. R. Leung, S. Hagos, R. A. Houze, C. D. Burleyson

  8. Application of the Double-Tangent Construction of Coexisting Phases to Any Type of Phase Equilibrium for Binary Systems Modeled with the Gamma-Phi Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaubert, Jean-Noël; Privat, Romain

    2014-01-01

    The double-tangent construction of coexisting phases is an elegant approach to visualize all the multiphase binary systems that satisfy the equality of chemical potentials and to select the stable state. In this paper, we show how to perform the double-tangent construction of coexisting phases for binary systems modeled with the gamma-phi…

  9. Distributed simulation a model driven engineering approach

    CERN Document Server

    Topçu, Okan; Oğuztüzün, Halit; Yilmaz, Levent

    2016-01-01

    Backed by substantive case studies, the novel approach to software engineering for distributed simulation outlined in this text demonstrates the potent synergies between model-driven techniques, simulation, intelligent agents, and computer systems development.

  10. A systems biology approach reveals a link between systemic cytokines and skeletal muscle energy metabolism in a rodent smoking model and human COPD.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidsen, Peter K; Herbert, John M; Antczak, Philipp; Clarke, Kim; Ferrer, Elisabet; Peinado, Victor I; Gonzalez, Constancio; Roca, Josep; Egginton, Stuart; Barberá, Joan A; Falciani, Francesco

    2014-01-01

    A relatively large percentage of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) develop systemic co-morbidities that affect prognosis, among which muscle wasting is particularly debilitating. Despite significant research effort, the pathophysiology of this important extrapulmonary manifestation is still unclear. A key question that remains unanswered is to what extent systemic inflammatory mediators might play a role in this pathology. Cigarette smoke (CS) is the main risk factor for developing COPD and therefore animal models chronically exposed to CS have been proposed for mechanistic studies and biomarker discovery. Although mice have been successfully used as a pre-clinical in vivo model to study the pulmonary effects of acute and chronic CS exposure, data suggest that they may be inadequate models for studying the effects of CS on peripheral muscle function. In contrast, recent findings indicate that the guinea pig model (Cavia porcellus) may better mimic muscle wasting. We have used a systems biology approach to compare the transcriptional profile of hindlimb skeletal muscles from a Guinea pig rodent model exposed to CS and/or chronic hypoxia to COPD patients with muscle wasting. We show that guinea pigs exposed to long-term CS accurately reflect most of the transcriptional changes observed in dysfunctional limb muscle of severe COPD patients when compared to matched controls. Using network inference, we could then show that the expression profile in whole lung of genes encoding for soluble inflammatory mediators is informative of the molecular state of skeletal muscles in the guinea pig smoking model. Finally, we show that CXCL10 and CXCL9, two of the candidate systemic cytokines identified using this pre-clinical model, are indeed detected at significantly higher levels in serum of COPD patients, and that their serum protein level is inversely correlated with the expression of aerobic energy metabolism genes in skeletal muscle. We conclude that

  11. A Novel Approach to Develop the Lower Order Model of Multi-Input Multi-Output System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajalakshmy, P.; Dharmalingam, S.; Jayakumar, J.

    2017-10-01

    A mathematical model is a virtual entity that uses mathematical language to describe the behavior of a system. Mathematical models are used particularly in the natural sciences and engineering disciplines like physics, biology, and electrical engineering as well as in the social sciences like economics, sociology and political science. Physicists, Engineers, Computer scientists, and Economists use mathematical models most extensively. With the advent of high performance processors and advanced mathematical computations, it is possible to develop high performing simulators for complicated Multi Input Multi Ouptut (MIMO) systems like Quadruple tank systems, Aircrafts, Boilers etc. This paper presents the development of the mathematical model of a 500 MW utility boiler which is a highly complex system. A synergistic combination of operational experience, system identification and lower order modeling philosophy has been effectively used to develop a simplified but accurate model of a circulation system of a utility boiler which is a MIMO system. The results obtained are found to be in good agreement with the physics of the process and with the results obtained through design procedure. The model obtained can be directly used for control system studies and to realize hardware simulators for boiler testing and operator training.

  12. Global energy modeling - A biophysical approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dale, Michael

    2010-09-15

    This paper contrasts the standard economic approach to energy modelling with energy models using a biophysical approach. Neither of these approaches includes changing energy-returns-on-investment (EROI) due to declining resource quality or the capital intensive nature of renewable energy sources. Both of these factors will become increasingly important in the future. An extension to the biophysical approach is outlined which encompasses a dynamic EROI function that explicitly incorporates technological learning. The model is used to explore several scenarios of long-term future energy supply especially concerning the global transition to renewable energy sources in the quest for a sustainable energy system.

  13. Modeling cellular systems

    CERN Document Server

    Matthäus, Franziska; Pahle, Jürgen

    2017-01-01

    This contributed volume comprises research articles and reviews on topics connected to the mathematical modeling of cellular systems. These contributions cover signaling pathways, stochastic effects, cell motility and mechanics, pattern formation processes, as well as multi-scale approaches. All authors attended the workshop on "Modeling Cellular Systems" which took place in Heidelberg in October 2014. The target audience primarily comprises researchers and experts in the field, but the book may also be beneficial for graduate students.

  14. Dynamical System Approaches to Combinatorial Optimization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Starke, Jens

    2013-01-01

    of large times as an asymptotically stable point of the dynamics. The obtained solutions are often not globally optimal but good approximations of it. Dynamical system and neural network approaches are appropriate methods for distributed and parallel processing. Because of the parallelization......Several dynamical system approaches to combinatorial optimization problems are described and compared. These include dynamical systems derived from penalty methods; the approach of Hopfield and Tank; self-organizing maps, that is, Kohonen networks; coupled selection equations; and hybrid methods...... thereof can be used as models for many industrial problems like manufacturing planning and optimization of flexible manufacturing systems. This is illustrated for an example in distributed robotic systems....

  15. Application of modelling and nanotechnology-based approaches: The emergence of breakthroughs in theranostics of central nervous system disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassanzadeh, Parichehr; Atyabi, Fatemeh; Dinarvand, Rassoul

    2017-08-01

    The limited efficiency of the current treatment options against the central nervous system (CNS) disorders has created increasing demands towards the development of novel theranostic strategies. The enormous research efforts in nanotechnology have led to the production of highly-advanced nanodevices and biomaterials in a variety of geometries and configurations for targeted delivery of genes, drugs, or growth factors across the blood-brain barrier. Meanwhile, the richness or reliability of data, drug delivery methods, therapeutic effects or potential toxicity of nanoparticles, occurrence of the unexpected phenomena due to the polydisperse or polymorphic nature of nanomaterials, and personalized theranostics have remained as challenging issues. In this respect, computational modelling has emerged as a powerful tool for rational design of nanoparticles with optimized characteristics including the selectivity, improved bioactivity, and reduced toxicity that might lead to the effective delivery of therapeutic agents. High-performance simulation techniques by shedding more light on the dynamical behaviour of neural networks and pathomechanisms of CNS disorders may provide imminent breakthroughs in nanomedicine. In the present review, the importance of integration of nanotechnology-based approaches with computational techniques for targeted delivery of theranostics to the CNS has been highlighted. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  16. Approaches for Intelligent Traffic System: A Survey

    OpenAIRE

    Pratishtha Gupta; G.N Purohit; Amrita Dadhich

    2012-01-01

    This survey presents various approaches for intelligent traffic systems. The potential research fields in which Intelligent Traffic System emerges as an important application area are highlighted andvarious issues have been identified which need to be handled while developing such a system for an urban area, where an efficient traffic management has become the need of hour.A model is also proposed capable of managing intelligent traffic system using CCTV cameras and WAN. The proposed model wi...

  17. Material Modelling - Composite Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Lauge Fuglsang

    1997-01-01

    is successfully justified comparing predicted results with experimental data obtained in the HETEK-project on creep, relaxation, and shrinkage of very young concretes cured at a temperature of T = 20^o C and a relative humidity of RH = 100%. The model is also justified comparing predicted creep, shrinkage......, and internal stresses caused by drying shrinkage with experimental results reported in the literature on the mechanical behavior of mature concretes. It is then concluded that the model presented applied in general with respect to age at loading.From a stress analysis point of view the most important finding...... in this report is that cement paste and concrete behave practically as linear-viscoelastic materials from an age of approximately 10 hours. This is a significant age extension relative to earlier studies in the literature where linear-viscoelastic behavior is only demonstrated from ages of a few days. Thus...

  18. Order-disorder transitions in time-discrete mean field systems with memory: a novel approach via nonlinear autoregressive models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frank, T D; Mongkolsakulvong, S

    2015-01-01

    In a previous study strongly nonlinear autoregressive (SNAR) models have been introduced as a generalization of the widely-used time-discrete autoregressive models that are known to apply both to Markov and non-Markovian systems. In contrast to conventional autoregressive models, SNAR models depend on process mean values. So far, only linear dependences have been studied. We consider the case in which process mean values can have a nonlinear impact on the processes under consideration. It is shown that such models describe Markov and non-Markovian many-body systems with mean field forces that exhibit a nonlinear impact on single subsystems. We exemplify that such nonlinear dependences can describe order-disorder phase transitions of time-discrete Markovian and non-Markovian many-body systems. The relevant order parameter equations are derived and issues of stability and stationarity are studied. (paper)

  19. A unified approach to model uptake kinetics of trace elements in complex aqueous – solid solution systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thien, Bruno M.J.; Kulik, Dmitrii A.; Curti, Enzo

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • There are several models able to describe trace element partitioning in growing minerals. • To describe complex systems, those models must be embedded in a geochemical code. • We merged two models into a unified one suitable for implementation in a geochemical code. • This unified model was tested against coprecipitation experimental data. • We explored how our model reacts to solution depletion effects. - Abstract: Thermodynamics alone is usually not sufficient to predict growth-rate dependencies of trace element partitioning into host mineral solid solutions. In this contribution, two uptake kinetic models were analyzed that are promising in terms of mechanistic understanding and potential for implementation in geochemical modelling codes. The growth Surface Entrapment Model (Watson, 2004) and the Surface Reaction Kinetic Model (DePaolo, 2011) were shown to be complementary, and under certain assumptions merged into a single analytical expression. This Unified Uptake Kinetics Model was implemented in GEMS3K and GEM-Selektor codes ( (http://gems.web.psi.ch)), a Gibbs energy minimization package for geochemical modelling. This implementation extends the applicability of the unified uptake kinetics model to accounting for non-trivial factors influencing the trace element partitioning into solid solutions, such as the changes in aqueous solution composition and speciation, or the depletion effects in closed geochemical systems

  20. An Inquiry-Based Approach to Teaching the Spherical Earth Model to Preservice Teachers Using the Global Positioning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Youngjin; Schwenz, Richard

    2013-01-01

    This article describes an inquiry-based lesson to deepen preservice teachers' understanding of the spherical Earth model using the Global Positioning System. The lesson was designed with four learning goals: (1) to increase preservice teachers' conceptual knowledge of the spherical Earth model; (2) to develop preservice teachers'…

  1. Resilience of Socio-Hydrological Systems in Canadian Prairies to Agricultural Drainage: Policy Analysis and Modelling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wheater, H. S.; Xu, L.; Gober, P.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Wong, J.

    2017-12-01

    Extensive agricultural drainage of lakes and wetlands in the Canadian Prairies has led to benefits for agricultural production, but has had a substantial influence on hydrological regimes and wetland extent. There is need for the potential impacts of current policy in changing the socio-hydrological resilience of prairie wetland basins in response to agricultural drainage to be examined. Whilst wetland drainage can increase agricultural productivity, it can also reduce stocks of natural capital and decrease ecosystem services, such as pollutant retention, habitat for waterfowls, carbon sequestration, and downstream flood attenuation. Effective policies that balance drainage benefits and negative externalities have to consider pricing. This is explored here using the Cold Regions Hydrological Model for hydrological simulations and the Inclusive Wealth approach for modelling in support of cost-benefit analysis. Inclusive wealth aggregates the value of natural, human, and technological assets used to produce social welfare. A shadow price, defined as the marginal change in social value for a marginal change in the current stock quantity, is used to valuate assets that contribute to social welfare. The shadow price of each asset is estimated by taking into account the social and economic benefits and external losses of wetland services caused by wetland drainage. The coupled model was applied to the Smith Creek Research Basin in south-eastern Saskatchewan, Canada where wetland drainage has caused major alterations of the hydrological regime including increased peak flows, discharge volumes and duration of streamflow. Changes in depressional storage in wetlands was used to calculate the corresponding changes of inclusive wealth over a 30-year period under the impacts from the limitation proposed in the Agricultural Water Management Strategy of Saskatchewan. The adjusted societal values of drainage demonstrate the dynamics between changes in hydrological conditions of

  2. Water Curtain System Pre-design for Crude Oil Storage URCs : A Numerical Modeling and Genetic Programming Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ghotbi Ravandi, Ebrahim; Rahmannejad, Reza; Karimi-Nasab, Saeed; Sarrafi, Amir; Raoof, Amir

    In this paper the main criteria of the water curtain system for unlined rock caverns (URCs) is described. By the application of numerical modeling and genetic programming (GP), a method for water curtain system pre-design for Iranian crude oil storage URCs (common dimension worldwide) is presented.

  3. An integral equation approach to the interval reliability of systems modelled by finite semi-Markov processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Csenki, A.

    1995-01-01

    The interval reliability for a repairable system which alternates between working and repair periods is defined as the probability of the system being functional throughout a given time interval. In this paper, a set of integral equations is derived for this dependability measure, under the assumption that the system is modelled by an irreducible finite semi-Markov process. The result is applied to the semi-Markov model of a two-unit system with sequential preventive maintenance. The method used for the numerical solution of the resulting system of integral equations is a two-point trapezoidal rule. The system of implementation is the matrix computation package MATLAB on the Apple Macintosh SE/30. The numerical results are discussed and compared with those from simulation

  4. Bounding approaches to system identification

    CERN Document Server

    Norton, John; Piet-Lahanier, Hélène; Walter, Éric

    1996-01-01

    In response to the growing interest in bounding error approaches, the editors of this volume offer the first collection of papers to describe advances in techniques and applications of bounding of the parameters, or state variables, of uncertain dynamical systems. Contributors explore the application of the bounding approach as an alternative to the probabilistic analysis of such systems, relating its importance to robust control-system design.

  5. Modeling Sustainable Food Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Thomas; Prosperi, Paolo

    2016-05-01

    The processes underlying environmental, economic, and social unsustainability derive in part from the food system. Building sustainable food systems has become a predominating endeavor aiming to redirect our food systems and policies towards better-adjusted goals and improved societal welfare. Food systems are complex social-ecological systems involving multiple interactions between human and natural components. Policy needs to encourage public perception of humanity and nature as interdependent and interacting. The systemic nature of these interdependencies and interactions calls for systems approaches and integrated assessment tools. Identifying and modeling the intrinsic properties of the food system that will ensure its essential outcomes are maintained or enhanced over time and across generations, will help organizations and governmental institutions to track progress towards sustainability, and set policies that encourage positive transformations. This paper proposes a conceptual model that articulates crucial vulnerability and resilience factors to global environmental and socio-economic changes, postulating specific food and nutrition security issues as priority outcomes of food systems. By acknowledging the systemic nature of sustainability, this approach allows consideration of causal factor dynamics. In a stepwise approach, a logical application is schematized for three Mediterranean countries, namely Spain, France, and Italy.

  6. A 3-D Approach for Teaching and Learning about Surface Water Systems through Computational Thinking, Data Visualization and Physical Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caplan, B.; Morrison, A.; Moore, J. C.; Berkowitz, A. R.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding water is central to understanding environmental challenges. Scientists use `big data' and computational models to develop knowledge about the structure and function of complex systems, and to make predictions about changes in climate, weather, hydrology, and ecology. Large environmental systems-related data sets and simulation models are difficult for high school teachers and students to access and make sense of. Comp Hydro, a collaboration across four states and multiple school districts, integrates computational thinking and data-related science practices into water systems instruction to enhance development of scientific model-based reasoning, through curriculum, assessment and teacher professional development. Comp Hydro addresses the need for 1) teaching materials for using data and physical models of hydrological phenomena, 2) building teachers' and students' comfort or familiarity with data analysis and modeling, and 3) infusing the computational knowledge and practices necessary to model and visualize hydrologic processes into instruction. Comp Hydro teams in Baltimore, MD and Fort Collins, CO are integrating teaching about surface water systems into high school courses focusing on flooding (MD) and surface water reservoirs (CO). This interactive session will highlight the successes and challenges of our physical and simulation models in helping teachers and students develop proficiency with computational thinking about surface water. We also will share insights from comparing teacher-led vs. project-led development of curriculum and our simulations.

  7. Hypothetical operation model for the multi-bed system of the Tritium plant based on the scheduling approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Jae-Uk, E-mail: eslee@dongguk.edu [Department of Chemical Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology, San 31, Hyoja-Dong, Pohang 790-784 (Korea, Republic of); Chang, Min Ho; Yun, Sei-Hun [National Fusion Research Institute, 169-148-gil Kwahak-ro, Yusong-gu, Daejon 34133 (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Euy Soo [Department of Chemical & Biochemical Engineering, Dongguk University, Seoul 100-715 (Korea, Republic of); Lee, In-Beum [Department of Chemical Engineering and Graduate School of Engineering Mastership, Pohang University of Science and Technology, San 31, Hyoja-Dong, Pohang 790-784 (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Kun-Hong [Department of Chemical Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology, San 31, Hyoja-Dong, Pohang 790-784 (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-11-01

    Highlights: • We introduce a mathematical model for the multi-bed storage system in the tritium plant. • We obtain details of operation by solving the model. • The model assesses diverse operation scenarios with respect to risk. - Abstract: In this paper, we describe our hypothetical operation model (HOM) for the multi-bed system of the storage and delivery system (SDS) of the ITER tritium plant. The multi-bed system consists of multiple getter beds (i.e., for batch operation) and buffer vessels (i.e., for continuous operation). Our newly developed HOM is formulated as a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model and has been extensively investigated to optimize chemical and petrochemical production planning and scheduling. Our model determines the timing, duration, and size of tasks corresponding to each set of equipment. Further, inventory levels for each set of equipment are calculated. Our proposed model considers the operation of one cycle of one set of getter beds and is implemented and assessed as a case study problem.

  8. System identification: a frequency domain approach

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Pintelon, R; Schoukens, J

    2001-01-01

    ... in the Identification Process 17 1.4.1 Collect Information about the System 17 1.4.2 Select a Model Structure to Represent the System 17 1.4.3 Match the Selected Model Structure to the Measurements 19 1.4.4 Validate the Selected Model 19 1.4.5 Conclusion 19 A Statistical Approach to the Estimation Problem 1.5.1 Least Squares Estimation 20 1.5.2 Weighted Least Squar...

  9. Geospatial Modelling Approach for Interlinking of Rivers: A Case Study of Vamsadhara and Nagavali River Systems in Srikakulam, Andhra Pradesh

    OpenAIRE

    Swathi Lakshmi, A.; Saran, S.; Srivastav, S. K.; Krishna Murthy, Y. V. N.

    2014-01-01

    India is prone to several natural disasters such as floods, droughts, cyclones, landslides and earthquakes on account of its geoclimatic conditions. But the most frequent and prominent disasters are floods and droughts. So to reduce the impact of floods and droughts in India, interlinking of rivers is one of the best solutions to transfer the surplus flood waters to deficit/drought prone areas. Geospatial modelling provides a holistic approach to generate probable interlinking routes...

  10. Geospatial Modelling Approach for Interlinking of Rivers: A Case Study of Vamsadhara and Nagavali River Systems in Srikakulam, Andhra Pradesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swathi Lakshmi, A.; Saran, S.; Srivastav, S. K.; Krishna Murthy, Y. V. N.

    2014-11-01

    India is prone to several natural disasters such as floods, droughts, cyclones, landslides and earthquakes on account of its geoclimatic conditions. But the most frequent and prominent disasters are floods and droughts. So to reduce the impact of floods and droughts in India, interlinking of rivers is one of the best solutions to transfer the surplus flood waters to deficit/drought prone areas. Geospatial modelling provides a holistic approach to generate probable interlinking routes of rivers based on existing geoinformatics tools and technologies. In the present study, SRTM DEM and AWiFS datasets coupled with land-use/land -cover, geomorphology, soil and interpolated rainfall surface maps have been used to identify the potential routes in geospatial domain for interlinking of Vamsadhara and Nagavali River Systems in Srikakulam district, Andhra Pradesh. The first order derivatives are derived from DEM and road, railway and drainage networks have been delineated using the satellite data. The inundation map has been prepared using AWiFS derived Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI). The Drought prone areas were delineated on the satellite image as per the records declared by Revenue Department, Srikakulam. Majority Rule Based (MRB) aggregation technique is performed to optimize the resolution of obtained data in order to retain the spatial variability of the classes. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) based Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) is implemented to obtain the prioritization of parameters like geomorphology, soil, DEM, slope, and land use/land-cover. A likelihood grid has been generated and all the thematic layers are overlaid to identify the potential grids for routing optimization. To give a better routing map, impedance map has been generated and several other constraints are considered. The implementation of canal construction needs extra cost in some areas. The developed routing map is published into OGC WMS services using open source Geo

  11. System approach to chemistry course

    OpenAIRE

    Lorina E. Kruglova; Valentina G. Derendyaeva

    2010-01-01

    The article considers the raise of chemistry profile for engineers and constructors training, discloses the system approach to chemistry course and singles out the most important modules from the course of general chemistry for construction industry.

  12. Modeling approach to various time and spatial scale environmental issues in Fukushima. Related to radioactive cesium migration in aquatic systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kurikami, Hiroshi; Kitamura, Akihiro; Yamada, Susumu; Machida, Masahiko

    2015-01-01

    Several numerical models have been prepared to deal with various time- and spatial-scale issues related to radioactive cesium migration in environment in Fukushima area. The SACT (Soil and Cesium Transport) model developed by the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) predicts middle- to long-term evolution of radioactive cesium distribution due to soil erosion, subsequent sediment transport and deposition, and radioactive cesium migration based on the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE). The TODAM (Time-dependent One-dimensional Degradation and Migration) model, iRIC/Nays2D and the FLESCOT (Flow, Energy, Salinity, Sediment, Contaminant Transport) model are one-, two- and three-dimensional river/reservoir/coastal models, respectively. Based on conservation equations of sediment and radioactive cesium, they treat advection and diffusion of suspended sediment and cesium, deposition of sediment to bed, re-suspension from bed and adsorption/desorption of radioactive cesium. These models are suitable for small and short time scale issues such as high discharges of sediment and radioactive cesium from rivers due to heavy rainfall events. This paper describes fragments of the JAEA’s approaches of modeling to deal with the issues corresponding to radioactive cesium migration in environment with some case studies. (author)

  13. Train-to-Ground communications of a Train Control and Monitoring Systems: A simulation platform modelling approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bouaziz, Maha; Yan, Ying; Kassab, Mohamed

    2018-01-01

    wireless technologies, e.g. Wi-Fi and LTE. Different T2G scenarios are defined in order to evaluate the performances of the Mobile Communication Gateway (managing train communications) and Quality of Services (QoS) offered to TCMS applications in the context of various environments (regular train lines......Under the SAFE4RAIL project, we are developing a simulation platform based on a discrete-events network simulator. This platform models the Train-to-Ground (T2G) link in the framework of a system-level simulation of Train Control Management System (TCMS). The modelled T2G link is based on existing...

  14. A new modelling and identification scheme for time-delay systems with experimental investigation: a relay feedback approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandey, Saurabh; Majhi, Somanath; Ghorai, Prasenjit

    2017-07-01

    In this paper, the conventional relay feedback test has been modified for modelling and identification of a class of real-time dynamical systems in terms of linear transfer function models with time-delay. An ideal relay and unknown systems are connected through a negative feedback loop to bring the sustained oscillatory output around the non-zero setpoint. Thereafter, the obtained limit cycle information is substituted in the derived mathematical equations for accurate identification of unknown plants in terms of overdamped, underdamped, critically damped second-order plus dead time and stable first-order plus dead time transfer function models. Typical examples from the literature are included for the validation of the proposed identification scheme through computer simulations. Subsequently, the comparisons between estimated model and true system are drawn through integral absolute error criterion and frequency response plots. Finally, the obtained output responses through simulations are verified experimentally on real-time liquid level control system using Yokogawa Distributed Control System CENTUM CS3000 set up.

  15. A cost-efficient expansion of renewable energy sources in the European electricity system. An integrated modelling approach with a particular emphasis on diurnal and seasonal patterns

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Golling, Christiane

    2012-11-01

    This thesis determines a cost-efficient expansion of electricity generated by renewable energy sources (RES-E) in the European power generation system. It is an integrated modelling approach with a particular emphasis on diurnal and seasonal patterns of renewable energy sources (RES). An integrated modelling approach optimizes the overall European electricity system while comprising fossil, nuclear, and renewable generation as well as storage capacities. The integrated model approach corresponds to a situation in which renewable generation is subject to electricity price signals. In sensitivity scenarios cases of the integrated model approach are compared to situations in which renewable generation is granted priority feed-in and is decoupled from electricity price signals. In addition, the role of different flexibility options, which can be provided by storage capacities and grid expansion are scrutinized. The methodology of the thesis consists of two parts. First, it develops an integrative model approach by extending an existing European electricity model only comprising conventional power generating technologies. Second, an appropriate representation of intermittent RES for electricity market models is established by the determination of corresponding typedays. The typeday modelling takes the spatial correlation of RES and the correlation between wind and solar power into account. Moreover, the typeday modelling captures average dispatch-relevant, diurnal and seasonal RES characteristics such as the level, the variance, and the gradient. The scenario analysis shows that separate developments of renewable and conventional technologies imply several inefficiencies. These increase with higher RES-E penetration. Inefficiencies such as an increased wind power curtailment, an augmented capital turnover, or a higher cumulative installed power generating capacity are revealed and quantified.

  16. A SIL quantification approach based on an operating situation model for safety evaluation in complex guided transportation systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beugin, J.; Renaux, D.; Cauffriez, L.

    2007-01-01

    Safety analysis in guided transportation systems is essential to avoid rare but potentially catastrophic accidents. This article presents a quantitative probabilistic model that integrates Safety Integrity Levels (SIL) for evaluating the safety of such systems. The standardized SIL indicator allows the safety requirements of each safety subsystem, function and/or piece of equipment to be specified, making SILs pivotal parameters in safety evaluation. However, different interpretations of SIL exist, and faced with the complexity of guided transportation systems, the current SIL allocation methods are inadequate for the task of safety assessment. To remedy these problems, the model developed in this paper seeks to verify, during the design phase of guided transportation system, whether or not the safety specifications established by the transport authorities allow the overall safety target to be attained (i.e., if the SIL allocated to the different safety functions are sufficient to ensure the required level of safety). To meet this objective, the model is based both on the operating situation concept and on Monte Carlo simulation. The former allows safety systems to be formalized and their dynamics to be analyzed in order to show the evolution of the system in time and space, and the latter make it possible to perform probabilistic calculations based on the scenario structure obtained

  17. Architecture Approach in System Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ladislav Burita

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to describe a practical solution of architecture approach in system development. The software application is the system which optimizes the transport service. The first part of the paper defines the enterprise architecture, its parts and frameworks. Next is explained the NATO Architecture Framework (NAF, a tool for command and control systems development in military environment. The NAF is used for architecture design of the system for optimization of the transport service.

  18. Systemic Analysis Approaches for Air Transportation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conway, Sheila

    2005-01-01

    Air transportation system designers have had only limited success using traditional operations research and parametric modeling approaches in their analyses of innovations. They need a systemic methodology for modeling of safety-critical infrastructure that is comprehensive, objective, and sufficiently concrete, yet simple enough to be used with reasonable investment. The methodology must also be amenable to quantitative analysis so issues of system safety and stability can be rigorously addressed. However, air transportation has proven itself an extensive, complex system whose behavior is difficult to describe, no less predict. There is a wide range of system analysis techniques available, but some are more appropriate for certain applications than others. Specifically in the area of complex system analysis, the literature suggests that both agent-based models and network analysis techniques may be useful. This paper discusses the theoretical basis for each approach in these applications, and explores their historic and potential further use for air transportation analysis.

  19. Economic evaluation of lupus nephritis in the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics inception cohort using a multistate model approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barber, Megan R W; Hanly, John G; Su, Li

    2018-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Little is known about the long-term costs of lupus nephritis (LN). These were compared between patients with and without LN based on multistate modelling. METHODS: Patients from 32 centres in 11 countries were enrolled in the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC...

  20. RSMASS system model development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marshall, A.C.; Gallup, D.R.

    1998-01-01

    RSMASS system mass models have been used for more than a decade to make rapid estimates of space reactor power system masses. This paper reviews the evolution of the RSMASS models and summarizes present capabilities. RSMASS has evolved from a simple model used to make rough estimates of space reactor and shield masses to a versatile space reactor power system model. RSMASS uses unique reactor and shield models that permit rapid mass optimization calculations for a variety of space reactor power and propulsion systems. The RSMASS-D upgrade of the original model includes algorithms for the balance of the power system, a number of reactor and shield modeling improvements, and an automatic mass optimization scheme. The RSMASS-D suite of codes cover a very broad range of reactor and power conversion system options as well as propulsion and bimodal reactor systems. Reactor choices include in-core and ex-core thermionic reactors, liquid metal cooled reactors, particle bed reactors, and prismatic configuration reactors. Power conversion options include thermoelectric, thermionic, Stirling, Brayton, and Rankine approaches. Program output includes all major component masses and dimensions, efficiencies, and a description of the design parameters for a mass optimized system. In the past, RSMASS has been used as an aid to identify and select promising concepts for space power applications. The RSMASS modeling approach has been demonstrated to be a valuable tool for guiding optimization of the power system design; consequently, the model is useful during system design and development as well as during the selection process. An improved in-core thermionic reactor system model RSMASS-T is now under development. The current development of the RSMASS-T code represents the next evolutionary stage of the RSMASS models. RSMASS-T includes many modeling improvements and is planned to be more user-friendly. RSMASS-T will be released as a fully documented, certified code at the end of

  1. A comparison of Capri and SEAMLESS-IFas Integrated Modelling Systems, Chapter 11 in Environmental and Agricultural Modelling: Integrated Approaches for Policy Impact Assessement

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Britz, W.; Perez Dominguez, I.; Heckelei, T.

    2010-01-01

    SEAMLESS-IF and CAPRI are both integrated agricultural modelling systems for policy impact assessment at EU level, linking model components across scales and between the economic and bio-physical domains. However, the overall design, focus and representation of agricultural sub-systems vary between

  2. A Systems Biology Approach to Understanding Alcoholic Liver Disease Molecular Mechanism: The Development of Static and Dynamic Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafaghati, Leila; Razaghi-Moghadam, Zahra; Mohammadnejad, Javad

    2017-11-01

    Alcoholic liver disease (ALD) is a complex disease characterized by damages to the liver and is the consequence of excessive alcohol consumption over years. Since this disease is associated with several pathway failures, pathway reconstruction and network analysis are likely to explicit the molecular basis of the disease. To this aim, in this paper, a network medicine approach was employed to integrate interactome (protein-protein interaction and signaling pathways) and transcriptome data to reconstruct both a static network of ALD and a dynamic model for it. Several data sources were exploited to assemble a set of ALD-associated genes which further was used for network reconstruction. Moreover, a comprehensive literature mining reveals that there are four signaling pathways with crosstalk (TLR4, NF- [Formula: see text]B, MAPK and Apoptosis) which play a major role in ALD. These four pathways were exploited to reconstruct a dynamic model of ALD. The results assure that these two models are consistent with a number of experimental observations. The static network of ALD and its dynamic model are the first models provided for ALD which offer potentially valuable information for researchers in this field.

  3. An In Silico Knockout Model for Gastrointestinal Absorption Using a Systems Pharmacology Approach - Development and Application for Ketones.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vittal Shivva

    Full Text Available Gastrointestinal absorption and disposition of ketones is complex. Recent work describing the pharmacokinetics (PK of d-β-hydroxybutyrate (BHB following oral ingestion of a ketone monoester ((R-3-hydroxybutyl (R-3-hydroxybutyrate found multiple input sites, nonlinear disposition and feedback on endogenous production. In the current work, a human systems pharmacology model for gastrointestinal absorption and subsequent disposition of small molecules (monocarboxylic acids with molecular weight < 200 Da was developed with an application to a ketone monoester. The systems model was developed by collating the information from the literature and knowledge gained from empirical population modelling of the clinical data. In silico knockout variants of this systems model were used to explore the mechanism of gastrointestinal absorption of ketones. The knockouts included active absorption across different regions in the gut and also a passive diffusion knockout, giving 10 gut knockouts in total. Exploration of knockout variants has suggested that there are at least three distinct regions in the gut that contribute to absorption of ketones. Passive diffusion predominates in the proximal gut and active processes contribute to the absorption of ketones in the distal gut. Low doses are predominantly absorbed from the proximal gut by passive diffusion whereas high doses are absorbed across all sites in the gut. This work has provided mechanistic insight into the absorption process of ketones, in the form of unique in silico knockouts that have potential for application with other therapeutics. Future studies on absorption process of ketones are suggested to substantiate findings in this study.

  4. War-gaming application for future space systems acquisition part 2: acquisition and bidding war-gaming modeling and simulation approaches for FFP and FPIF

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Tien M.; Guillen, Andy T.

    2017-05-01

    This paper describes cooperative and non-cooperative static Bayesian game models with complete and incomplete information for the development of optimum acquisition strategies associated with the Program and Technical Baseline (PTB) solutions obtained from Part 1 of this paper [1]. The optimum acquisition strategies discussed focus on achieving "Affordability" by incorporating contractors' bidding strategies into the government acquisition strategies for acquiring future space systems. The paper discusses System Engineering (SE) frameworks, analytical and simulation approaches and modeling for developing the optimum acquisition strategies from both the government and contractor perspectives for Firm Fixed Price (FFP) and Fixed Price Incentive Firm (FPIF) contract types.

  5. A short-range weather prediction system for South Africa based on a multi-model approach

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, S

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available stream_source_info Landman5_2012.pdf.txt stream_content_type text/plain stream_size 44898 Content-Encoding ISO-8859-1 stream_name Landman5_2012.pdf.txt Content-Type text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1 1 A short... to be skillful. Moreover, the system outscores the forecast skill of the individual models. Keywords: short-range, ensemble, forecasting, precipitation, multi-model, verification Tel: +27 12 367 6054...

  6. Linear systems a measurement based approach

    CERN Document Server

    Bhattacharyya, S P; Mohsenizadeh, D N

    2014-01-01

    This brief presents recent results obtained on the analysis, synthesis and design of systems described by linear equations. It is well known that linear equations arise in most branches of science and engineering as well as social, biological and economic systems. The novelty of this approach is that no models of the system are assumed to be available, nor are they required. Instead, a few measurements made on the system can be processed strategically to directly extract design values that meet specifications without constructing a model of the system, implicitly or explicitly. These new concepts are illustrated by applying them to linear DC and AC circuits, mechanical, civil and hydraulic systems, signal flow block diagrams and control systems. These applications are preliminary and suggest many open problems. The results presented in this brief are the latest effort in this direction and the authors hope these will lead to attractive alternatives to model-based design of engineering and other systems.

  7. 'System-of-systems' approach for interdependent critical infrastructures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eusgeld, Irene; Nan, Cen; Dietz, Sven

    2011-01-01

    The study of the interdependencies within critical infrastructures (CI) is a growing field of research as the importance of potential failure propagation among infrastructures may lead to cascades affecting all supply networks. New powerful methods are required to model and describe such 'systems-of-systems' (SoS) as a whole. An overall model is required to provide security and reliability assessment taking into account various kinds of threats and failures. A significant challenge associated with this model may be to create 'what-if' scenarios for the analysis of interdependencies. In this paper the interdependencies between industrial control systems (ICS), in particular SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition), and the underlying critical infrastructures to address the vulnerabilities related to the coupling of these systems are analyzed. The modeling alternatives for system-of-systems, integrated versus coupled models, are discussed. An integrated model contains detailed low level models of (sub)systems as well as a high level model, covering all hierarchical levels. On the other hand, a coupled model aggregates different simulated outputs of the low level models as inputs at a higher level. Strengths and weaknesses of both approaches are analyzed and a model architecture for SCADA and the 'system under control' are proposed. Furthermore, the HLA simulation standard is introduced and discussed in this paper as a promising approach to represent interdependencies between infrastructures. To demonstrate the capabilities of the HLA standard for the interdependencies study, an exemplary application and some first results are also briefly presented in this paper.

  8. The Effect of Systemic Steroid on Hearing Preservation After Cochlear Implantation via Round Window Approach: A Guinea Pig Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Mun Young; Rah, Yoon Chan; Choi, Jun Jae; Woo, Shin Wook; Hwang, Yu-Jung; Eastwood, Hayden; O'Leary, Stephen J; Lee, Jun Ho

    2017-08-01

    When administered perioperatively, systemic dexamethasone will reduce the hearing loss associated with cochlear implantation (CI) performed via the round window approach. The benefits of electroacoustic stimulation have led to interest in pharmacological interventions to preserve hearing after CI. Thirty guinea pigs were randomly divided into three experimental groups: a control group; a 3-day infusion group; and a 7-day infusion group. Dexamethasone was delivered via a mini-osmotic pump for either 3 or 7 days after CI via the round window. Pure tone-evoked auditory brainstem response (ABR) thresholds were monitored for a period of 12 weeks after CI. The cochleae were then collected for histology. At 4 and 12 weeks after CI, ABR threshold shifts were significantly reduced in both 7-day and 3-day infusion groups compared with the control group. Furthermore, the 7-day infusion group has significantly reduced ABR threshold shifts compared with the 3-day infusion group. The total tissue response, including fibrosis and ossification, was significantly reduced in the 7-day infusion group compared with the control group. On multiple regression the extent of fibrosis predicted hearing loss across most frequencies, while hair cell counts predicted ABR thresholds at 32 kHz. Hearing protection after systemic administration of steroids is more effective when continued for at least a week after CI. Similarly, this treatment approach was more effective in reducing the fibrosis that encapsulates the CI electrode. Reduced fibrosis seemed to be the most likely explanation for the hearing protection.

  9. An Online Causal Inference Framework for Modeling and Designing Systems Involving User Preferences: A State-Space Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibrahim Delibalta

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We provide a causal inference framework to model the effects of machine learning algorithms on user preferences. We then use this mathematical model to prove that the overall system can be tuned to alter those preferences in a desired manner. A user can be an online shopper or a social media user, exposed to digital interventions produced by machine learning algorithms. A user preference can be anything from inclination towards a product to a political party affiliation. Our framework uses a state-space model to represent user preferences as latent system parameters which can only be observed indirectly via online user actions such as a purchase activity or social media status updates, shares, blogs, or tweets. Based on these observations, machine learning algorithms produce digital interventions such as targeted advertisements or tweets. We model the effects of these interventions through a causal feedback loop, which alters the corresponding preferences of the user. We then introduce algorithms in order to estimate and later tune the user preferences to a particular desired form. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our algorithms through experiments in different scenarios.

  10. A quantitative systems pharmacology approach, incorporating a novel liver model, for predicting pharmacokinetic drug-drug interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherkaoui-Rbati, Mohammed H; Paine, Stuart W; Littlewood, Peter; Rauch, Cyril

    2017-01-01

    All pharmaceutical companies are required to assess pharmacokinetic drug-drug interactions (DDIs) of new chemical entities (NCEs) and mathematical prediction helps to select the best NCE candidate with regard to adverse effects resulting from a DDI before any costly clinical studies. Most current models assume that the liver is a homogeneous organ where the majority of the metabolism occurs. However, the circulatory system of the liver has a complex hierarchical geometry which distributes xenobiotics throughout the organ. Nevertheless, the lobule (liver unit), located at the end of each branch, is composed of many sinusoids where the blood flow can vary and therefore creates heterogeneity (e.g. drug concentration, enzyme level). A liver model was constructed by describing the geometry of a lobule, where the blood velocity increases toward the central vein, and by modeling the exchange mechanisms between the blood and hepatocytes. Moreover, the three major DDI mechanisms of metabolic enzymes; competitive inhibition, mechanism based inhibition and induction, were accounted for with an undefined number of drugs and/or enzymes. The liver model was incorporated into a physiological-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model and simulations produced, that in turn were compared to ten clinical results. The liver model generated a hierarchy of 5 sinusoidal levels and estimated a blood volume of 283 mL and a cell density of 193 × 106 cells/g in the liver. The overall PBPK model predicted the pharmacokinetics of midazolam and the magnitude of the clinical DDI with perpetrator drug(s) including spatial and temporal enzyme levels changes. The model presented herein may reduce costs and the use of laboratory animals and give the opportunity to explore different clinical scenarios, which reduce the risk of adverse events, prior to costly human clinical studies.

  11. A quantitative systems pharmacology approach, incorporating a novel liver model, for predicting pharmacokinetic drug-drug interactions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed H Cherkaoui-Rbati

    Full Text Available All pharmaceutical companies are required to assess pharmacokinetic drug-drug interactions (DDIs of new chemical entities (NCEs and mathematical prediction helps to select the best NCE candidate with regard to adverse effects resulting from a DDI before any costly clinical studies. Most current models assume that the liver is a homogeneous organ where the majority of the metabolism occurs. However, the circulatory system of the liver has a complex hierarchical geometry which distributes xenobiotics throughout the organ. Nevertheless, the lobule (liver unit, located at the end of each branch, is composed of many sinusoids where the blood flow can vary and therefore creates heterogeneity (e.g. drug concentration, enzyme level. A liver model was constructed by describing the geometry of a lobule, where the blood velocity increases toward the central vein, and by modeling the exchange mechanisms between the blood and hepatocytes. Moreover, the three major DDI mechanisms of metabolic enzymes; competitive inhibition, mechanism based inhibition and induction, were accounted for with an undefined number of drugs and/or enzymes. The liver model was incorporated into a physiological-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK model and simulations produced, that in turn were compared to ten clinical results. The liver model generated a hierarchy of 5 sinusoidal levels and estimated a blood volume of 283 mL and a cell density of 193 × 106 cells/g in the liver. The overall PBPK model predicted the pharmacokinetics of midazolam and the magnitude of the clinical DDI with perpetrator drug(s including spatial and temporal enzyme levels changes. The model presented herein may reduce costs and the use of laboratory animals and give the opportunity to explore different clinical scenarios, which reduce the risk of adverse events, prior to costly human clinical studies.

  12. Comparing formal verification approaches of interlocking systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haxthausen, Anne Elisabeth; Nguyen, Hoang Nga; Roggenbach, Markus

    2016-01-01

    these approaches. As a first step towards this, in this paper we suggest a way to compare different formal approaches for verifying designs of route-based interlocking systems and we demonstrate it on modelling and verification approaches developed within the research groups at DTU/Bremen and at Surrey......The verification of railway interlocking systems is a challenging task, and therefore several research groups have suggested to improve this task by using formal methods, but they use different modelling and verification approaches. To advance this research, there is a need to compare....../Swansea. The focus is on designs that are specified by so-called control tables. The paper can serve as a starting point for further comparative studies. The DTU/Bremen research has been funded by the RobustRailS project granted by Innovation Fund Denmark. The Surrey/Swansea research has been funded by the Safe...

  13. Inflammatory gene regulatory networks in amnion cells following cytokine stimulation: translational systems approach to modeling human parturition.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruth Li

    Full Text Available A majority of the studies examining the molecular regulation of human labor have been conducted using single gene approaches. While the technology to produce multi-dimensional datasets is readily available, the means for facile analysis of such data are limited. The objective of this study was to develop a systems approach to infer regulatory mechanisms governing global gene expression in cytokine-challenged cells in vitro, and to apply these methods to predict gene regulatory networks (GRNs in intrauterine tissues during term parturition. To this end, microarray analysis was applied to human amnion mesenchymal cells (AMCs stimulated with interleukin-1β, and differentially expressed transcripts were subjected to hierarchical clustering, temporal expression profiling, and motif enrichment analysis, from which a GRN was constructed. These methods were then applied to fetal membrane specimens collected in the absence or presence of spontaneous term labor. Analysis of cytokine-responsive genes in AMCs revealed a sterile immune response signature, with promoters enriched in response elements for several inflammation-associated transcription factors. In comparison to the fetal membrane dataset, there were 34 genes commonly upregulated, many of which were part of an acute inflammation gene expression signature. Binding motifs for nuclear factor-κB were prominent in the gene interaction and regulatory networks for both datasets; however, we found little evidence to support the utilization of pathogen-associated molecular pattern (PAMP signaling. The tissue specimens were also enriched for transcripts governed by hypoxia-inducible factor. The approach presented here provides an uncomplicated means to infer global relationships among gene clusters involved in cellular responses to labor-associated signals.

  14. Nitrate source apportionment using a combined dual isotope, chemical and bacterial property, and Bayesian model approach in river systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Yongqiu; Li, Yuefei; Zhang, Xinyu; Yan, Xiaoyuan

    2017-01-01

    Nitrate (NO3-) pollution is a serious problem worldwide, particularly in countries with intensive agricultural and population activities. Previous studies have used δ15N-NO3- and δ18O-NO3- to determine the NO3- sources in rivers. However, this approach is subject to substantial uncertainties and limitations because of the numerous NO3- sources, the wide isotopic ranges, and the existing isotopic fractionations. In this study, we outline a combined procedure for improving the determination of NO3- sources in a paddy agriculture-urban gradient watershed in eastern China. First, the main sources of NO3- in the Qinhuai River were examined by the dual-isotope biplot approach, in which we narrowed the isotope ranges using site-specific isotopic results. Next, the bacterial groups and chemical properties of the river water were analyzed to verify these sources. Finally, we introduced a Bayesian model to apportion the spatiotemporal variations of the NO3- sources. Denitrification was first incorporated into the Bayesian model because denitrification plays an important role in the nitrogen pathway. The results showed that fertilizer contributed large amounts of NO3- to the surface water in traditional agricultural regions, whereas manure effluents were the dominant NO3- source in intensified agricultural regions, especially during the wet seasons. Sewage effluents were important in all three land uses and exhibited great differences between the dry season and the wet season. This combined analysis quantitatively delineates the proportion of NO3- sources from paddy agriculture to urban river water for both dry and wet seasons and incorporates isotopic fractionation and uncertainties in the source compositions.

  15. Meta-hierarchical-heuristic-mathematical- model of loading problems in flexible manufacturing system for development of an intelligent approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ranbir Singh

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Flexible manufacturing system (FMS promises a wide range of manufacturing benefits in terms of flexibility and productivity. These benefits are targeted by efficient production planning. Part type selection, machine grouping, deciding production ratio, resource allocation and machine loading are five identified production planning problems. Machine loading is the most identified complex problem solved with aid of computers. System up gradation and newer technology adoption are the primary needs of efficient FMS generating new scopes of research in the field. The literature review is carried and the critical analysis is being executed in the present work. This paper presents the outcomes of the mathematical modelling techniques for loading of machines in FMS’s. It was also analysed that the mathematical modelling is necessary for accurate and reliable analysis for practical applications. However, excessive computations need to be avoided and heuristics have to be used for real-world problems. This paper presents the heuristics-mathematical modelling of loading problem with machine processing time as primary input. The aim of the present work is to solve a real-world machine loading problem with an objective of balancing the workload of the FMS with decreased computational time. A Matlab code is developed for the solution and the results are found most accurate and reliable as presented in the paper.

  16. System Identification A Frequency Domain Approach

    CERN Document Server

    Pintelon, Rik

    2012-01-01

    System identification is a general term used to describe mathematical tools and algorithms that build dynamical models from measured data. Used for prediction, control, physical interpretation, and the designing of any electrical systems, they are vital in the fields of electrical, mechanical, civil, and chemical engineering. Focusing mainly on frequency domain techniques, System Identification: A Frequency Domain Approach, Second Edition also studies in detail the similarities and differences with the classical time domain approach. It high??lights many of the important steps in the identi

  17. State-space approaches for modelling and control in financial engineering systems theory and machine learning methods

    CERN Document Server

    Rigatos, Gerasimos G

    2017-01-01

    The book conclusively solves problems associated with the control and estimation of nonlinear and chaotic dynamics in financial systems when these are described in the form of nonlinear ordinary differential equations. It then addresses problems associated with the control and estimation of financial systems governed by partial differential equations (e.g. the Black–Scholes partial differential equation (PDE) and its variants). Lastly it an offers optimal solution to the problem of statistical validation of computational models and tools used to support financial engineers in decision making. The application of state-space models in financial engineering means that the heuristics and empirical methods currently in use in decision-making procedures for finance can be eliminated. It also allows methods of fault-free performance and optimality in the management of assets and capitals and methods assuring stability in the functioning of financial systems to be established. Covering the following key are...

  18. Stabilization of nonlinear systems using sampled-data output-feedback fuzzy controller based on polynomial-fuzzy-model-based control approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, H K

    2012-02-01

    This paper investigates the stability of sampled-data output-feedback (SDOF) polynomial-fuzzy-model-based control systems. Representing the nonlinear plant using a polynomial fuzzy model, an SDOF fuzzy controller is proposed to perform the control process using the system output information. As only the system output is available for feedback compensation, it is more challenging for the controller design and system analysis compared to the full-state-feedback case. Furthermore, because of the sampling activity, the control signal is kept constant by the zero-order hold during the sampling period, which complicates the system dynamics and makes the stability analysis more difficult. In this paper, two cases of SDOF fuzzy controllers, which either share the same number of fuzzy rules or not, are considered. The system stability is investigated based on the Lyapunov stability theory using the sum-of-squares (SOS) approach. SOS-based stability conditions are obtained to guarantee the system stability and synthesize the SDOF fuzzy controller. Simulation examples are given to demonstrate the merits of the proposed SDOF fuzzy control approach.

  19. Petroleum potential of the northern Sinu-San Jacinto Basin, Colombia: an integrated petroleum system and basin modeling approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nino, Christian H.; Goncalves, Felix T.T.; Bedregal, Ricardo P. [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE). Lab. de Modelagem de Bacias (LAB2M); Azevedo, Debora A. [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Inst. de Quimica; Landau, Luis [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE). Lab. de Metodos Computacionais em Engenharia (LAMCE)

    2004-07-01

    The northern Sinu-San Jacinto basin, located in the northwestern corner of South America (Colombia), belongs to the accretionary prism that resulted from the collision and subduction of the Caribbean plate under the South America plate. Despite all the previous exploratory efforts, solely a few small sub-commercial oil and gas accumulation have been found up to now. The geological and geochemical information acquired by different companies during the lasts decades was integrated with new geochemical analysis and basin modeling to characterize the petroleum systems, to reconstruct the hydrocarbon charge history in the study area and to better assess the exploratory risk. (author)

  20. Determinants of wind and solar energy system adoption by U.S. farms: A multilevel modeling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borchers, Allison M.; Xiarchos, Irene; Beckman, Jayson

    2014-01-01

    This article offers the first national examination of the determinants of adoption of wind and solar energy generation on U.S. farming operations. The inclusion of state policies and characteristics in a multilevel modeling approach distinguishes this study from past research utilizing logit models of technology adoption which focus only on the characteristics of the farm operation. Results suggest the propensity to adopt is higher for livestock operations, larger farms, operators with internet access, organic operations, and newer farmers. The results find state characteristics such as solar resources, per capita income levels, and predominantly democratic voting increasing the odds of farm adoption. This research suggests the relevance of state policy variables in explaining farm level outcomes is limited, although in combination best practice net metering and interconnection policies—policies designed to encourage the development of small scale distributed applications—are shown to increase the likelihood of farm solar and wind adoption. The prevalence of electric cooperatives—which are often not subject to state renewable energy policies and often service farms—is negatively related with the propensity to adopt and suggests that policy design may be a factor. - Highlights: • This is the first national examination of wind and solar energy adoption on U.S. farms. • Controlling for state policies distinguishes this study from past research of technology adoption. • We find net metering and interconnection policies increase the likelihood of farm adoption. • Results suggest that the design of renewable energy policies may limit their impact on farms

  1. Assessing Nitrogen Use Efficiency and Nitrogen Loss in a Forage-Based System Using a Modeling Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiara Piccini

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available In intensive agriculture, N supply often exceeds crop requirements, even in nitrate vulnerable zones (NVZ. In farmland, the N surplus gives rise to NO3− leaching and consequent groundwater pollution. The present study aimed at proposing measures to reduce N leaching and hence improve N efficiency in a buffalo livestock farm located in the NVZ of Latina plain (Central Italy. The farm was cultivated with forage crops in a double annual crop rotation: Italian ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum Lam. in winter and silage corn (Zea mays L. in summer. Mineral and organic fertilizers were supplied to both crops. The annual N budget and soil solution NO3-N concentrations were evaluated using a modeling approach. The performance of the WinEPIC model in simulating the response of the NO3-N concentration in percolation to the N application rate was assessed and validated by field measurements of the NO3-N concentration in the soil solution. Three scenarios were proposed to identify the best practice to minimize the environmental impact of N application without significant yield loss. Also, recommendations of best practices in N fertilization and animal manure spreading were given. This study thus provides useful preliminary information for decision-making in agriculture/environmental policies.

  2. Detection of cardiovascular anomalies: Hybrid systems approach

    KAUST Repository

    Ledezma, Fernando

    2012-06-06

    In this paper, we propose a hybrid interpretation of the cardiovascular system. Based on a model proposed by Simaan et al. (2009), we study the problem of detecting cardiovascular anomalies that can be caused by variations in some physiological parameters, using an observerbased approach. We present the first numerical results obtained. © 2012 IFAC.

  3. The Behavioral Approach System (BAS) Model of Vulnerability to Bipolar Disorder: Evidence of a Continuum in BAS Sensitivity across Adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Richard T; Burke, Taylor A; Abramson, Lyn Y; Alloy, Lauren B

    2017-11-04

    Behavioral Approach System (BAS) sensitivity has been implicated in the development of a variety of different psychiatric disorders. Prominent among these in the empirical literature are bipolar spectrum disorders (BSDs). Given that adolescence represents a critical developmental stage of risk for the onset of BSDs, it is important to clarify the latent structure of BAS sensitivity in this period of development. A statistical approach especially well-suited for delineating the latent structure of BAS sensitivity is taxometric analysis, which is designed to evaluate whether the latent structure of a construct is taxonic (i.e., categorical) or dimensional (i.e., continuous) in nature. The current study applied three mathematically non-redundant taxometric procedures (i.e., MAMBAC, MAXEIG, and L-Mode) to a large community sample of adolescents (n = 12,494) who completed two separate measures of BAS sensitivity: the BIS/BAS Scales Carver and White (Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 67, 319-333. 1994) and the Sensitivity to Reward and Sensitivity to Punishment Questionnaire (Torrubia et al. Personality and Individual Differences, 31, 837-862. 2001). Given the significant developmental changes in reward sensitivity that occur across adolescence, the current investigation aimed to provide a fine-grained evaluation of the data by performing taxometric analyses at an age-by-age level (14-19 years; n for each age ≥ 883). Results derived from taxometric procedures, across all ages tested, were highly consistent, providing strong evidence that BAS sensitivity is best conceptualized as dimensional in nature. Thus, the findings suggest that BAS-related vulnerability to BSDs exists along a continuum of severity, with no natural cut-point qualitatively differentiating high- and low-risk adolescents. Clinical and research implications for the assessment of BSD-related vulnerability are discussed.

  4. A System Approach to Environmental Education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Kostova

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available A system approach to environmental education (EE is developed. By making use of it the educators will be able to introduce successfully ecological principles and global environmental problems in the educational system for the development of environmental culture, consciousness and behavior. It embraces a long period of thinking, designing, experimenting and rethinking in the light of the new ideas, concerning humanity-nature relationships. The core of the system approach is represented by environmental consciousness, which is the driving force of environmentally responsible behavior. The system approach is concerned with constructing an innovative model of EE, which consists of three elements: didactical, conceptual and technological and six integrating concepts, uniting the studies of the different school subjects under the global movement for sustainable development. EE is regarded to be an essential part of the education for sustainable development (ESD.

  5. Performance Analysis of Machine-Learning Approaches for Modeling the Charging/Discharging Profiles of Stationary Battery Systems with Non-Uniform Cell Aging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nandha Kumar Kandasamy

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The number of Stationary Battery Systems (SBS connected to various power distribution networks across the world has increased drastically. The increase in the integration of renewable energy sources is one of the major contributors to the increase in the number of SBS. SBS are also used in other applications such as peak load management, load-shifting, voltage regulation and power quality improvement. Accurately modeling the charging/discharging characteristics of such SBS at various instances (charging/discharging profile is vital for many applications. Capacity loss due to the aging of the batteries is an important factor to be considered for estimating the charging/discharging profile of SBS more accurately. Empirical modeling is a common approach used in the literature for estimating capacity loss, which is further used for estimating the charging/discharging profiles of SBS. However, in the case of SBS used for renewable integration and other grid related applications, machine-learning (ML based models provide extreme flexibility and require minimal resources for implementation. The models can even leverage existing smart meter data to estimate the charging/discharging profile of SBS. In this paper, an analysis on the performance of different ML approaches that can be applied for lithium iron phosphate battery systems and vanadium redox flow battery systems used as SBS is presented for the scenarios where the aging of individual cells is non-uniform.

  6. Systems approach in energy management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dutta-Choudhury, K.

    1993-01-01

    Several years ago when the author was working in the chemicals division of a paper company in Instrumentation and Controls, one experience had a lasting impact on his work approach which is systems approach. The maintenance manager told the author that a very important piece of boiler instrument of the power plant had broken down and delivery of the replacement needed to be expedited. The instrument was ordered over the phone in another city. The purchase order was personally delivered at the supplier's office and arrangements were made so the instrument was put on the next flight. A week later the maintenance manager indicated that the particular instrument still had not arrived in the plant and he could not run the power plant. Thus the company incurred substantial losses. Further inquiries showed that the instrument did indeed arrive at the plant stores on time. But, in the absence of any instructions thereon, the instrument was not delivered to the power plant. The sense of urgency was lost in the existing delivery process. In other words, the process or system failed. The whole process from requisitioning to delivery of ordered items was analyzed and corrective procedures were incorporated to prevent future repetitions. This brings up the subject of systems approach in engineering management in general and energy management in particular. This involves defining an objective and designing a system for an effective way of getting there

  7. How the 2SLS/IV estimator can handle equality constraints in structural equation models: a system-of-equations approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nestler, Steffen

    2014-05-01

    Parameters in structural equation models are typically estimated using the maximum likelihood (ML) approach. Bollen (1996) proposed an alternative non-iterative, equation-by-equation estimator that uses instrumental variables. Although this two-stage least squares/instrumental variables (2SLS/IV) estimator has good statistical properties, one problem with its application is that parameter equality constraints cannot be imposed. This paper presents a mathematical solution to this problem that is based on an extension of the 2SLS/IV approach to a system of equations. We present an example in which our approach was used to examine strong longitudinal measurement invariance. We also investigated the new approach in a simulation study that compared it with ML in the examination of the equality of two latent regression coefficients and strong measurement invariance. Overall, the results show that the suggested approach is a useful extension of the original 2SLS/IV estimator and allows for the effective handling of equality constraints in structural equation models. © 2013 The British Psychological Society.

  8. Stochastic modeling and control system designs of the NASA/MSFC Ground Facility for large space structures: The maximum entropy/optimal projection approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsia, Wei-Shen

    1986-01-01

    In the Control Systems Division of the Systems Dynamics Laboratory of the NASA/MSFC, a Ground Facility (GF), in which the dynamics and control system concepts being considered for Large Space Structures (LSS) applications can be verified, was designed and built. One of the important aspects of the GF is to design an analytical model which will be as close to experimental data as possible so that a feasible control law can be generated. Using Hyland's Maximum Entropy/Optimal Projection Approach, a procedure was developed in which the maximum entropy principle is used for stochastic modeling and the optimal projection technique is used for a reduced-order dynamic compensator design for a high-order plant.

  9. An Imbalance of Approach and Effortful Control Predicts Externalizing Problems: Support for Extending the Dual-Systems Model into Early Childhood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonas, Katherine; Kochanska, Grazyna

    2018-01-25

    Although the association between deficits in effortful control and later externalizing behavior is well established, many researchers (Nigg Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry, 47(3-4), 395-422, 2006; Steinberg Developmental Review, 28(1), 78-106, 2008) have hypothesized this association is actually the product of the imbalance of dual systems, or two underlying traits: approach and self-regulation. Very little research, however, has deployed a statistically robust strategy to examine that compelling model; further, no research has done so using behavioral measures, particularly in longitudinal studies. We examined the imbalance of approach and self-regulation (effortful control, EC) as predicting externalizing problems. Latent trait models of approach and EC were derived from behavioral measures collected from 102 children in a community sample at 25, 38, 52, and 67 months (2 to 5 ½ years), and used to predict externalizing behaviors, modeled as a latent trait derived from parent-reported measures at 80, 100, 123, and 147 months (6 ½ to 12 years). The imbalance hypothesis was supported: Children with an imbalance of approach and EC had more externalizing behavior problems in middle childhood and early preadolescence, relative to children with equal levels of the two traits.

  10. Systemic-Functional Approach to Utilities Supplys

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikolay I. Komkov

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: the purpose of the article consists in statement of management approach to development of utilities supply processes based on conflict situations decision – making search. It had appeared in the period of the transition from the planned and directive management to market development. Methods: the research methodology is based on the system analysis of full life cycle processes functioning, forecasting of complex systems development, mathematical modeling of processes of services supply and innovative and investment projects modeling as well as development of supplying services processes. Results: the results of the work are concentrated in the presentation of systemic-functional approach to managing the development of processes of municipal services, able to resolve conflict situations in this sphere. Conclusions and Relevance: the traditional management approach on the basis of elimination of "bottlenecks" and emergencies prevailing within planned and directive system at its transformation in the market conditions has led to accumulation of conflict situations and unsolvable problems. The offered systemic-functional approach based on forecasting of full life cycle of the modernized processes and the services providing systems allows to consider costs of modernization, prime cost and quality of the rendered services. 

  11. Set-Theoretic Approach to Maturity Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lasrado, Lester Allan

    Despite being widely accepted and applied, maturity models in Information Systems (IS) have been criticized for the lack of theoretical grounding, methodological rigor, empirical validations, and ignorance of multiple and non-linear paths to maturity. This PhD thesis focuses on addressing...... these criticisms by incorporating recent developments in configuration theory, in particular application of set-theoretic approaches. The aim is to show the potential of employing a set-theoretic approach for maturity model research and empirically demonstrating equifinal paths to maturity. Specifically...... methodological guidelines consisting of detailed procedures to systematically apply set theoretic approaches for maturity model research and provides demonstrations of it application on three datasets. The thesis is a collection of six research papers that are written in a sequential manner. The first paper...

  12. Effects of Organics on the Adsorption and Mobility of Metal Cations in Clay Systems: Computational Molecular Modeling Approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kalinichev, Andrey G.; Ngouana Wakou, Brice F.; Loganathan, Narasimhan

    2013-01-01

    Understanding and prediction of many natural and anthropogenic environmental processes ultimately depend on a fundamental understanding of the chemistry occurring at the mineral-fluid inter-faces. Clay-related minerals and natural organic matter (NOM) are ubiquitous in the environment, and metal-NOM complexation induces strong correlations between the NOM concentration in water and the capacity of clay particles to bind metals, thus affecting their speciation, solubility and toxicity in the environment. Despite significant geochemical, environmental and technological interest, the molecular-level mechanisms and dynamics of the physical and chemical processes involving NOM are not yet well understood. In this presentation we compare three different molecular dynamics (MD) computer simulations of metal-NOM complexation in aqueous solutions. The simulation results indicate that despite some obvious quantitative variations in the computed values depending on the size of the simulated system and on the parameters of the force field models used, all three simulations are quite robust and consistent. In particular, approximately 35-50% of Ca 2+ ions in all simulations are associated with the carboxylic groups of NOM at near-neutral pH. The stability of bidentate-coordinated contact ion pair complexes is also always strongly preferred. Easy association of metal cations with negatively charged NOM functional groups and negatively charged clay surfaces allows us to predict that cationic bridging could be the most probable mechanism of NOM association with clays in natural environments. New MD simulations are currently in progress to quantitatively assess these predictions on a molecular scale for nuclear waste disposal applications. New larger-scale clay models incorporate a more realistic representation of the structural and compositional disorder of natural illites and smectites and employ CLAYFF - a fully flexible general force field suitable for the molecular simulations

  13. Exploring complex dynamics in multi agent-based intelligent systems: Theoretical and experimental approaches using the Multi Agent-based Behavioral Economic Landscape (MABEL) model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandridis, Konstantinos T.

    This dissertation adopts a holistic and detailed approach to modeling spatially explicit agent-based artificial intelligent systems, using the Multi Agent-based Behavioral Economic Landscape (MABEL) model. The research questions that addresses stem from the need to understand and analyze the real-world patterns and dynamics of land use change from a coupled human-environmental systems perspective. Describes the systemic, mathematical, statistical, socio-economic and spatial dynamics of the MABEL modeling framework, and provides a wide array of cross-disciplinary modeling applications within the research, decision-making and policy domains. Establishes the symbolic properties of the MABEL model as a Markov decision process, analyzes the decision-theoretic utility and optimization attributes of agents towards comprising statistically and spatially optimal policies and actions, and explores the probabilogic character of the agents' decision-making and inference mechanisms via the use of Bayesian belief and decision networks. Develops and describes a Monte Carlo methodology for experimental replications of agent's decisions regarding complex spatial parcel acquisition and learning. Recognizes the gap on spatially-explicit accuracy assessment techniques for complex spatial models, and proposes an ensemble of statistical tools designed to address this problem. Advanced information assessment techniques such as the Receiver-Operator Characteristic curve, the impurity entropy and Gini functions, and the Bayesian classification functions are proposed. The theoretical foundation for modular Bayesian inference in spatially-explicit multi-agent artificial intelligent systems, and the ensembles of cognitive and scenario assessment modular tools build for the MABEL model are provided. Emphasizes the modularity and robustness as valuable qualitative modeling attributes, and examines the role of robust intelligent modeling as a tool for improving policy-decisions related to land

  14. Modeling the effect of sedentary behaviour on the prevention of population obesity using the system dynamics approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abidin, Norhaslinda Zainal; Zaibidi, Nerda Zura; Zulkepli, Jafri Hj

    2015-10-01

    Obesity is a medical condition where an individual has an excessive amount of body fat. There are many factors contributing to obesity and one of them is the sedentary behaviour. Rapid development in industrialization and urbanization has brought changes to Malaysia's socioeconomic, especially the lifestyles of Malaysians. With this lifestyle transition, one of the impact is on weight and obesity. How does sedentary behaviour have an impact on the growth of Malaysian population's weight and obesity? What is the most effective sedentary behaviour preventing strategy to obesity? Is it through reduction in duration or frequency of sedentary behaviour? Thus, the aim of this paper is to design an intervention to analyse the effect of decreasing duration and frequency of sedentary behaviour on the population reversion trends of average weight (AW), average body mass index (ABMI), and prevalence of overweight and obesity (POVB). This study combines the different strands of sub-models comprised of nutrition, physical activity and body metabolism, and then synthesis these knowledge into a system dynamics of weight behaviour model, namely SIMULObese. Findings from this study revealed that Malaysian's adults spend a lot of time engaged in sedentary behaviour and this resulted in weight gain and obesity. Comparing between frequency and duration of sedentary behaviour, this study reported that reduced in duration or time spend in sedentary behaviour is a better preventing strategy to obesity compared to duration. As a summary, this study highlighted the importance of decreasing the frequency and duration of sedentary behaviour in developing guidelines to prevent obesity.

  15. Computer Networks A Systems Approach

    CERN Document Server

    Peterson, Larry L

    2011-01-01

    This best-selling and classic book teaches you the key principles of computer networks with examples drawn from the real world of network and protocol design. Using the Internet as the primary example, the authors explain various protocols and networking technologies. Their systems-oriented approach encourages you to think about how individual network components fit into a larger, complex system of interactions. Whatever your perspective, whether it be that of an application developer, network administrator, or a designer of network equipment or protocols, you will come away with a "big pictur

  16. Combination of a crop model and a geochemical model as a new approach to evaluate the sustainability of an intensive agriculture system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammed, Gihan; Trolard, Fabienne; Gillon, Marina; Cognard-Plancq, Anne-Laure; Chanzy, André; Bourrié, Guilhem

    2017-10-01

    By combining a crop model (STICS) and a geochemical model (PHREEQC), a new approach to assess the sustainability of agrosystems is proposed. It is based upon aqueous geochemistry and the stepwise modifications of soil solution during its transfer from the surface till aquifer. Meadows of Crau (SE France), irrigated since the 16th century, were field monitored (2012-2015) and modelled. Except for N, the mineral requirements of hay are largely covered by dissolved elements brought by irrigation water with only slight deficits in K and P, which are compensated by P-K fertilizers and the winter pasture by sheep. N cycle results in a very small nitrate leakage. The main determinants of the chemical composition changes of water are: concentration by evaporation, equilibration with soil pCO 2 , mineral nutrition of plants, input of fertilizers, sheep grazing, mineral-solution interactions in superficial formations till the aquifer, including ion exchange. Inverse modelling with PHREEQC allows for quantifying these processes. For groundwater, measured composition fit statistically very well with those computed, validating thus this approach. This long-term established agrosystem protects both soil and water resources: soil nutritional status remains constant with even some P and (minor) K fixation in soils; long-term decarbonatation occurs but it is greatly slowed by saturation of irrigation water by carbonate; P fixation in soil protects groundwater from eutrophication. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. A multiobjective decision support/numerical modeling approach for design and evaluation of shallow landfill burial systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ascough, II, James Clifford [Purdue Univ., Lafayette, IN (United States)

    1992-05-01

    The capability to objectively evaluate design performance of shallow landfill burial (SLB) systems is of great interest to diverse scientific disciplines, including hydrologists, engineers, environmental scientists, and SLB regulators. The goal of this work was to develop and validate a procedure for the nonsubjective evaluation of SLB designs under actual or simulated environmental conditions. A multiobjective decision module (MDM) based on scoring functions (Wymore, 1988) was implemented to evaluate SLB design performance. Input values to the MDM are provided by hydrologic models. The MDM assigns a total score to each SLB design alternative, thereby allowing for rapid and repeatable design performance evaluation. The MDM was validated for a wide range of SLB designs under different climatic conditions. Rigorous assessment of SLB performance also requires incorporation of hydrologic probabilistic analysis and hydrologic risk into the overall design. This was accomplished through the development of a frequency analysis module. The frequency analysis module allows SLB design event magnitudes to be calculated based on the hydrologic return period. The multiobjective decision and freqeuncy anslysis modules were integrated in a decision support system (DSS) framework, SLEUTH (Shallow Landfill Evaluation Using Transport and Hydrology). SLEUTH is a Microsoft Windows {trademark} application, and is written in the Knowledge Pro Windows (Knowledge Garden, Inc., 1991) development language.

  18. A multiobjective decision support/numerical modeling approach for design and evaluation of shallow landfill burial systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ascough, J.C. II

    1992-05-01

    The capability to objectively evaluate design performance of shallow landfill burial (SLB) systems is of great interest to diverse scientific disciplines, including hydrologists, engineers, environmental scientists, and SLB regulators. The goal of this work was to develop and validate a procedure for the nonsubjective evaluation of SLB designs under actual or simulated environmental conditions. A multiobjective decision module (MDM) based on scoring functions (Wymore, 1988) was implemented to evaluate SLB design performance. Input values to the MDM are provided by hydrologic models. The MDM assigns a total score to each SLB design alternative, thereby allowing for rapid and repeatable design performance evaluation. The MDM was validated for a wide range of SLB designs under different climatic conditions. Rigorous assessment of SLB performance also requires incorporation of hydrologic probabilistic analysis and hydrologic risk into the overall design. This was accomplished through the development of a frequency analysis module. The frequency analysis module allows SLB design event magnitudes to be calculated based on the hydrologic return period. The multiobjective decision and freqeuncy anslysis modules were integrated in a decision support system (DSS) framework, SLEUTH (Shallow Landfill Evaluation Using Transport and Hydrology). SLEUTH is a Microsoft Windows trademark application, and is written in the Knowledge Pro Windows (Knowledge Garden, Inc., 1991) development language

  19. A diagnosis method for physical systems using a multi-modeling approach; Utilisation de l'approche multi-modeles pour l'aide au diagnostic d'installations industrielles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thetiot, R

    2000-07-01

    In this thesis we propose a method for diagnosis problem solving. This method is based on a multi-modeling approach describing both normal and abnormal behavior of a system. This modeling approach allows to represent a system at different abstraction levels (behavioral, functional and teleological). Fundamental knowledge is described according to a bond-graph representation. We show that bond-graph representation can be exploited in order to generate (completely or partially) the functional models. The different models of the multi-modeling approach allows to define the functional state of a system at different abstraction levels. We exploit this property to exonerate sub-systems for which the expected behavior is observed. The behavioral and functional descriptions of the remaining sub-systems are exploited hierarchically in a two steps process. In a first step, the abnormal behaviors explaining some observations are identified. In a second step, the remaining unexplained observations are used to generate conflict sets and thus the consistency based diagnoses. The modeling method and the diagnosis process have been applied to a Reactor Coolant Pump Sets. This application illustrates the concepts described in this thesis and shows its potentialities. (authors)

  20. A diagnosis method for physical systems using a multi-modeling approach; Utilisation de l'approche multi-modeles pour l'aide au diagnostic d'installations industrielles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thetiot, R

    2000-07-01

    In this thesis we propose a method for diagnosis problem solving. This method is based on a multi-modeling approach describing both normal and abnormal behavior of a system. This modeling approach allows to represent a system at different abstraction levels (behavioral, functional and teleological). Fundamental knowledge is described according to a bond-graph representation. We show that bond-graph representation can be exploited in order to generate (completely or partially) the functional models. The different models of the multi-modeling approach allows to define the functional state of a system at different abstraction levels. We exploit this property to exonerate sub-systems for which the expected behavior is observed. The behavioral and functional descriptions of the remaining sub-systems are exploited hierarchically in a two steps process. In a first step, the abnormal behaviors explaining some observations are identified. In a second step, the remaining unexplained observations are used to generate conflict sets and thus the consistency based diagnoses. The modeling method and the diagnosis process have been applied to a Reactor Coolant Pump Sets. This application illustrates the concepts described in this thesis and shows its potentialities. (authors)

  1. In the Intimacy of My "Enactlon": Modeling Kohut's "Bipolar Self" as an Autopoietic System: A Dialectic Approach to Phenomenological Research in Contemporary Psychoanalytic Self Psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prendergast, Claire Nicole

    2016-06-01

    This paper demonstrates that Kohut's definitional system of the "bipolar self" within psychoanalytic self psychology can be modeled as a biological autopoietic system, both in terms of its structure and dynamics, in a way that accounts for the phenomenological aspects of experiential living. Based on this finding, the author argues that a nonreductionist definitional system of this type is an integral component of any pragmatic methodology, such as Kohut's "empathic-introspective" method of treatment, which aims to enable the analyst, as observer, to gain access to the phenomenological world of the analysand within the analytic setting. The dialectic approach undertaken in this preliminary exploration of the "bipolar self" as an autopoietic system has proven fruitful in excavating some of the theoretical features of psychoanalytic self psychology, the weighted importance of which can now be reevaluated in contemporary practice.

  2. The ontological model and the hybrid expert system for products and processes quality identification involving the approach based on system analysis and quality function deployment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dmitriev Aleksandr

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Discussed model of quality of identification has improved mathematical tools and allows you to use a variety of additional information. The proposed robust method is a matrix MTQFD (Matrix Technique Quality Function Deployment allows you to determine not only the priorities but also the assessment of the target values of the product characteristics and process parameters, with the possible use of the information on the negative relationship. Designed ontological model, method and model of expert system versatile and can be used to identify the quality of services.

  3. SLS Navigation Model-Based Design Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliver, T. Emerson; Anzalone, Evan; Geohagan, Kevin; Bernard, Bill; Park, Thomas

    2018-01-01

    The SLS Program chose to implement a Model-based Design and Model-based Requirements approach for managing component design information and system requirements. This approach differs from previous large-scale design efforts at Marshall Space Flight Center where design documentation alone conveyed information required for vehicle design and analysis and where extensive requirements sets were used to scope and constrain the design. The SLS Navigation Team has been responsible for the Program-controlled Design Math Models (DMMs) which describe and represent the performance of the Inertial Navigation System (INS) and the Rate Gyro Assemblies (RGAs) used by Guidance, Navigation, and Controls (GN&C). The SLS Navigation Team is also responsible for the navigation algorithms. The navigation algorithms are delivered for implementation on the flight hardware as a DMM. For the SLS Block 1-B design, the additional GPS Receiver hardware is managed as a DMM at the vehicle design level. This paper provides a discussion of the processes and methods used to engineer, design, and coordinate engineering trades and performance assessments using SLS practices as applied to the GN&C system, with a particular focus on the Navigation components. These include composing system requirements, requirements verification, model development, model verification and validation, and modeling and analysis approaches. The Model-based Design and Requirements approach does not reduce the effort associated with the design process versus previous processes used at Marshall Space Flight Center. Instead, the approach takes advantage of overlap between the requirements development and management process, and the design and analysis process by efficiently combining the control (i.e. the requirement) and the design mechanisms. The design mechanism is the representation of the component behavior and performance in design and analysis tools. The focus in the early design process shifts from the development and

  4. A New Approach to Integrate Internet-of-Things and Software-as-a-Service Model for Logistic Systems: A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shang-Liang; Chen, Yun-Yao; Hsu, Chiang

    2014-01-01

    Cloud computing is changing the ways software is developed and managed in enterprises, which is changing the way of doing business in that dynamically scalable and virtualized resources are regarded as services over the Internet. Traditional manufacturing systems such as supply chain management (SCM), customer relationship management (CRM), and enterprise resource planning (ERP) are often developed case by case. However, effective collaboration between different systems, platforms, programming languages, and interfaces has been suggested by researchers. In cloud-computing-based systems, distributed resources are encapsulated into cloud services and centrally managed, which allows high automation, flexibility, fast provision, and ease of integration at low cost. The integration between physical resources and cloud services can be improved by combining Internet of things (IoT) technology and Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) technology. This study proposes a new approach for developing cloud-based manufacturing systems based on a four-layer SaaS model. There are three main contributions of this paper: (1) enterprises can develop their own cloud-based logistic management information systems based on the approach proposed in this paper; (2) a case study based on literature reviews with experimental results is proposed to verify that the system performance is remarkable; (3) challenges encountered and feedback collected from T Company in the case study are discussed in this paper for the purpose of enterprise deployment. PMID:24686728

  5. A New Approach to Integrate Internet-of-Things and Software-as-a-Service Model for Logistic Systems: A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shang-Liang Chen

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Cloud computing is changing the ways software is developed and managed in enterprises, which is changing the way of doing business in that dynamically scalable and virtualized resources are regarded as services over the Internet. Traditional manufacturing systems such as supply chain management (SCM, customer relationship management (CRM, and enterprise resource planning (ERP are often developed case by case. However, effective collaboration between different systems, platforms, programming languages, and interfaces has been suggested by researchers. In cloud-computing-based systems, distributed resources are encapsulated into cloud services and centrally managed, which allows high automation, flexibility, fast provision, and ease of integration at low cost. The integration between physical resources and cloud services can be improved by combining Internet of things (IoT technology and Software-as-a-Service (SaaS technology. This study proposes a new approach for developing cloud-based manufacturing systems based on a four-layer SaaS model. There are three main contributions of this paper: (1 enterprises can develop their own cloud-based logistic management information systems based on the approach proposed in this paper; (2 a case study based on literature reviews with experimental results is proposed to verify that the system performance is remarkable; (3 challenges encountered and feedback collected from T Company in the case study are discussed in this paper for the purpose of enterprise deployment.

  6. A new approach to integrate Internet-of-things and software-as-a-service model for logistic systems: a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shang-Liang; Chen, Yun-Yao; Hsu, Chiang

    2014-03-28

    Cloud computing is changing the ways software is developed and managed in enterprises, which is changing the way of doing business in that dynamically scalable and virtualized resources are regarded as services over the Internet. Traditional manufacturing systems such as supply chain management (SCM), customer relationship management (CRM), and enterprise resource planning (ERP) are often developed case by case. However, effective collaboration between different systems, platforms, programming languages, and interfaces has been suggested by researchers. In cloud-computing-based systems, distributed resources are encapsulated into cloud services and centrally managed, which allows high automation, flexibility, fast provision, and ease of integration at low cost. The integration between physical resources and cloud services can be improved by combining Internet of things (IoT) technology and Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) technology. This study proposes a new approach for developing cloud-based manufacturing systems based on a four-layer SaaS model. There are three main contributions of this paper: (1) enterprises can develop their own cloud-based logistic management information systems based on the approach proposed in this paper; (2) a case study based on literature reviews with experimental results is proposed to verify that the system performance is remarkable; (3) challenges encountered and feedback collected from T Company in the case study are discussed in this paper for the purpose of enterprise deployment.

  7. HEDR modeling approach: Revision 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shipler, D.B.; Napier, B.A.

    1994-05-01

    This report is a revision of the previous Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project modeling approach report. This revised report describes the methods used in performing scoping studies and estimating final radiation doses to real and representative individuals who lived in the vicinity of the Hanford Site. The scoping studies and dose estimates pertain to various environmental pathways during various periods of time. The original report discussed the concepts under consideration in 1991. The methods for estimating dose have been refined as understanding of existing data, the scope of pathways, and the magnitudes of dose estimates were evaluated through scoping studies

  8. Dynamical system approach to phyllotaxis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    D'ovidio, Francesco; Mosekilde, Erik

    2000-01-01

    and not a dynamical system, mainly because new active elements are added at each step, and thus the dimension of the "natural" phase space is not conserved. Here a construction is presented by which a well defined dynamical system can be obtained, and a bifurcation analysis can be carried out. Stable and unstable...... of the Jacobian, and thus the eigenvalues, is given. It is likely that problems of the above type often arise in biology, and especially in morphogenesis, where growing systems are modeled....

  9. Economic evaluation of lupus nephritis in the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics inception cohort using a multistate model approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barber, Megan R W; Hanly, John G; Su, Li; Urowitz, Murray B; Pierre, Yvan St; Romero-Diaz, Juanita; Gordon, Caroline; Bae, Sang-Cheol; Bernatsky, Sasha; Wallace, Daniel J; Isenberg, David A; Rahman, Anisur; Ginzler, Ellen M; Petri, Michelle; Bruce, Ian N; Fortin, Paul R; Gladman, Dafna D; Sanchez-Guerrero, Jorge; Ramsey-Goldman, Rosalind; Khamashta, Munther A; Aranow, Cynthia; Mackay, Meggan; Alarcón, Graciela S; Manzi, Susan; Nived, Ola; Jönsen, Andreas; Zoma, Asad A; van Vollenhoven, Ronald F; Ramos-Casals, Manuel; Ruiz-Irastorza, Guillermo; Sam Lim, S; Kalunian, Kenneth C; Inanc, Murat; Kamen, Diane L; Peschken, Christine A; Jacobsen, Soren; Askanase, Anca; Theriault, Chris; Farewell, Vernon; Clarke, Ann E

    2017-11-28

    Little is known about the long-term costs of lupus nephritis (LN). These were compared between patients with and without LN based on multistate modelling. Patients from 32 centres in 11 countries were enrolled in the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) inception cohort within 15 months of diagnosis and provided annual data on renal function, hospitalizations, medications, dialysis, and selected procedures. LN was diagnosed by renal biopsy or the American College of Rheumatology classification criteria. Renal function was assessed annually using estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) or proteinuria (ePrU). A multistate model was used to predict 10-year cumulative costs by multiplying annual costs associated with each renal state by the expected state duration. 1,545 patients participated, 89.3% female, mean age at diagnosis 35.2 years (SD 13.4), 49.0% Caucasian, and mean follow up 6.3 years (SD 3.3). LN developed in 39.4% by the end of follow up. Ten-year cumulative costs were greater in those with LN and an eGFR 60 ml/min) or with LN and ePrU > 3 g/d ($84 040 versus $20 499 if no LN and ePrU < 0.25 g/d). Patients with eGFR < 30 ml/min incurred 10-year costs 15-fold higher than those with normal eGFR. By estimating the expected duration in each renal state and incorporating associated annual costs, disease severity at presentation can be used to anticipate future healthcare costs. This is critical knowledge for cost-effectiveness evaluations of novel therapies. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  10. Unintentional Interpersonal Synchronization Represented as a Reciprocal Visuo-Postural Feedback System: A Multivariate Autoregressive Modeling Approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuntaro Okazaki

    Full Text Available People's behaviors synchronize. It is difficult, however, to determine whether synchronized behaviors occur in a mutual direction--two individuals influencing one another--or in one direction--one individual leading the other, and what the underlying mechanism for synchronization is. To answer these questions, we hypothesized a non-leader-follower postural sway synchronization, caused by a reciprocal visuo-postural feedback system operating on pairs of individuals, and tested that hypothesis both experimentally and via simulation. In the behavioral experiment, 22 participant pairs stood face to face either 20 or 70 cm away from each other wearing glasses with or without vision blocking lenses. The existence and direction of visual information exchanged between pairs of participants were systematically manipulated. The time series data for the postural sway of these pairs were recorded and analyzed with cross correlation and causality. Results of cross correlation showed that postural sway of paired participants was synchronized, with a shorter time lag when participant pairs could see one another's head motion than when one of the participants was blindfolded. In addition, there was less of a time lag in the observed synchronization when the distance between participant pairs was smaller. As for the causality analysis, noise contribution ratio (NCR, the measure of influence using a multivariate autoregressive model, was also computed to identify the degree to which one's postural sway is explained by that of the other's and how visual information (sighted vs. blindfolded interacts with paired participants' postural sway. It was found that for synchronization to take place, it is crucial that paired participants be sighted and exert equal influence on one another by simultaneously exchanging visual information. Furthermore, a simulation for the proposed system with a wider range of visual input showed a pattern of results similar to the

  11. Modeling dental radiographic systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Webber, R.L.

    1980-01-01

    The Bureau of Radiological Health has been actively collaborating with the Clinical Investigations Branch, NIDR, in applied research involving diagnostic use of ionizing radiation in dentistry. This work has centered on the search for alternatives to conventional radiographic systems in an attempt to improve diagnostic performance while reducing the required exposure. The basic approach involves analysis of factors limiting performance of properly defined diagnostic tasks and the modeling alternative systems with an eye toward increasing objective measures of performance. Previous collaborative work involved using a nonlinear model to compare various x-ray spectra. The data were expressed as brightness-contrast versus exposure for simulated tasks of clinical interest. This report supplements these findings by extending the number of parameters under investigation and modifying the mode of data display so that an actual radiographic image can be simulated on a television screen

  12. Evaluation of molecular brain changes associated with environmental stress in rodent models compared to human major depressive disorder: A proteomic systems approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, David Alan; Gottschalk, Michael Gerd; Stelzhammer, Viktoria; Wesseling, Hendrik; Cooper, Jason David; Bahn, Sabine

    2016-11-25

    Rodent models of major depressive disorder (MDD) are indispensable when screening for novel treatments, but assessing their translational relevance with human brain pathology has proved difficult. Using a novel systems approach, proteomics data obtained from post-mortem MDD anterior prefrontal cortex tissue (n = 12) and matched controls (n = 23) were compared with equivalent data from three commonly used preclinical models exposed to environmental stressors (chronic mild stress, prenatal stress and social defeat). Functional pathophysiological features associated with depression-like behaviour were identified in these models through enrichment of protein-protein interaction networks. A cross-species comparison evaluated which model(s) represent human MDD pathology most closely. Seven functional domains associated with MDD and represented across at least two models such as "carbohydrate metabolism and cellular respiration" were identified. Through statistical evaluation using kernel-based machine learning techniques, the social defeat model was found to represent MDD brain changes most closely for four of the seven domains. This is the first study to apply a method for directly evaluating the relevance of the molecular pathology of multiple animal models to human MDD on the functional level. The methodology and findings outlined here could help to overcome translational obstacles of preclinical psychiatric research.

  13. DOE systems approach and integration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Logan, J.A.

    1987-01-01

    Six sites are now disposing of most of DOE's currently generated waste. These are: Hanford, Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, Los Alamos National Laboratory, the Nevada Test Site, Oak Ridge, and Savannah River. Within DOE, experience with disposal of solid LLW has been that arid site disposal facilities (first four) appear to have performed well, while humid site disposal facilities (last two) have experienced some waste migration. DOE's intent, of course, is to operate all its waste disposal facilities so that public health and safety are not adversely affected. To ensure that this continues to be the case, activities are underway to increase use of waste form stabilization and engineered barriers where appropriate. For the sake of overall economy, these measures are to be applied as and where needed, through use of the systems approach. In this paper the author discusses two topics: the system approach, which DOE has decided to use for resolving waste disposal problems in the management of DOE's low-level wastes; and DOE's intended integration of activities underway at the waste management systems throughout DOE facilities. 2 figures

  14. MONITORING IN CREDIT INSTITUTIONS – COMPARATIVE APPROACH ON INTERNAL CONTROL SYSTEMS – THE CASE OF ROMANIA VS. INTERNATIONAL MODELS OF CONTROL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MURESAN MARIANA

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Starting from the stipulations of the two well-known internal control system models – COSO and CoCo - the purpose of this paper is to focus on the Romanian framework for credit institutions – trying to to identify on which international model is our national one most appropriate to. The research methodology is based on an empirical analysis between Romanian regulation and the models already mentioned. To reach to a conclusion we tried to identify several key issues closely related to information and communication, and to determine the degree of similarities and dissimilarities between the three selected frameworks, by using statistical indicators. The paper has some limitations, too, because it only approaches formal harmonization. So, those issues analyzed through the regulations’ perspectives need to be closely quantified in matters of their actual implementation, which offer us outlooks of future research.

  15. Thermospheric dynamics - A system theory approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Codrescu, M.; Forbes, J. M.; Roble, R. G.

    1990-01-01

    A system theory approach to thermospheric modeling is developed, based upon a linearization method which is capable of preserving nonlinear features of a dynamical system. The method is tested using a large, nonlinear, time-varying system, namely the thermospheric general circulation model (TGCM) of the National Center for Atmospheric Research. In the linearized version an equivalent system, defined for one of the desired TGCM output variables, is characterized by a set of response functions that is constructed from corresponding quasi-steady state and unit sample response functions. The linearized version of the system runs on a personal computer and produces an approximation of the desired TGCM output field height profile at a given geographic location.

  16. An engineering design approach to systems biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janes, Kevin A; Chandran, Preethi L; Ford, Roseanne M; Lazzara, Matthew J; Papin, Jason A; Peirce, Shayn M; Saucerman, Jeffrey J; Lauffenburger, Douglas A

    2017-07-17

    Measuring and modeling the integrated behavior of biomolecular-cellular networks is central to systems biology. Over several decades, systems biology has been shaped by quantitative biologists, physicists, mathematicians, and engineers in different ways. However, the basic and applied versions of systems biology are not typically distinguished, which blurs the separate aspirations of the field and its potential for real-world impact. Here, we articulate an engineering approach to systems biology, which applies educational philosophy, engineering design, and predictive models to solve contemporary problems in an age of biomedical Big Data. A concerted effort to train systems bioengineers will provide a versatile workforce capable of tackling the diverse challenges faced by the biotechnological and pharmaceutical sectors in a modern, information-dense economy.

  17. An approach to hydrogeological modeling of a large system of groundwater-fed lakes and wetlands in the Nebraska Sand Hills, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossman, Nathan R.; Zlotnik, Vitaly A.; Rowe, Clinton M.

    2018-05-01

    The feasibility of a hydrogeological modeling approach to simulate several thousand shallow groundwater-fed lakes and wetlands without explicitly considering their connection with groundwater is investigated at the regional scale ( 40,000 km2) through an application in the semi-arid Nebraska Sand Hills (NSH), USA. Hydraulic heads are compared to local land-surface elevations from a digital elevation model (DEM) within a geographic information system to assess locations of lakes and wetlands. The water bodies are inferred where hydraulic heads exceed, or are above a certain depth below, the land surface. Numbers of lakes and/or wetlands are determined via image cluster analysis applied to the same 30-m grid as the DEM after interpolating both simulated and estimated heads. The regional water-table map was used for groundwater model calibration, considering MODIS-based net groundwater recharge data. Resulting values of simulated total baseflow to interior streams are within 1% of observed values. Locations, areas, and numbers of simulated lakes and wetlands are compared with Landsat 2005 survey data and with areas of lakes from a 1979-1980 Landsat survey and the National Hydrography Dataset. This simplified process-based modeling approach avoids the need for field-based morphology or water-budget data from individual lakes or wetlands, or determination of lake-groundwater exchanges, yet it reproduces observed lake-wetland characteristics at regional groundwater management scales. A better understanding of the NSH hydrogeology is attained, and the approach shows promise for use in simulations of groundwater-fed lake and wetland characteristics in other large groundwater systems.

  18. An extensible analysable system model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Probst, Christian W.; Hansen, Rene Rydhof

    2008-01-01

    , this does not hold for real physical systems. Approaches such as threat modelling try to target the formalisation of the real-world domain, but still are far from the rigid techniques available in security research. Many currently available approaches to assurance of critical infrastructure security...

  19. Reducing stock-outs of essential tuberculosis medicines: a system dynamics modelling approach to supply chain management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bam, L; McLaren, Z M; Coetzee, E; von Leipzig, K H

    2017-10-01

    The under-performance of supply chains presents a significant hindrance to disease control in developing countries. Stock-outs of essential medicines lead to treatment interruption which can force changes in patient drug regimens, drive drug resistance and increase mortality. This study is one of few to quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of supply chain policies in reducing shortages and costs. This study develops a systems dynamics simulation model of the downstream supply chain for amikacin, a second-line tuberculosis drug using 10 years of South African data. We evaluate current supply chain performance in terms of reliability, responsiveness and agility, following the widely-used Supply Chain Operation Reference framework. We simulate 141 scenarios that represent different combinations of supplier characteristics, inventory management strategies and demand forecasting methods to identify the Pareto optimal set of management policies that jointly minimize the number of shortages and total cost. Despite long supplier lead times and unpredictable demand, the amikacin supply chain is 98% reliable and agile enough to accommodate a 20% increase in demand without a shortage. However, this is accomplished by overstocking amikacin by 167%, which incurs high holding costs. The responsiveness of suppliers is low: only 57% of orders are delivered to the central provincial drug depot within one month. We identify three Pareto optimal safety stock management policies. Short supplier lead time can produce Pareto optimal outcomes even in the absence of other optimal policies. This study produces concrete, actionable guidelines to cost-effectively reduce stock-outs by implementing optimal supply chain policies. Preferentially selecting drug suppliers with short lead times accommodates unexpected changes in demand. Optimal supply chain management should be an essential component of national policy to reduce the mortality rate. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford

  20. System learning approach to assess sustainability and ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This paper presents a methodology that combines the power of an Artificial Neural Network and Information Theory to forecast variables describing the condition of a regional system. The novelty and strength of this approach is in the application of Fisher information, a key method in Information Theory, to preserve trends in the historical data and prevent over fitting projections. The methodology was applied to demographic, environmental, food and energy consumption, and agricultural production in the San Luis Basin regional system in Colorado, U.S.A. These variables are important for tracking conditions in human and natural systems. However, available data are often so far out of date that they limit the ability to manage these systems. Results indicate that the approaches developed provide viable tools for forecasting outcomes with the aim of assisting management toward sustainable trends. This methodology is also applicable for modeling different scenarios in other dynamic systems. Indicators are indispensable for tracking conditions in human and natural systems, however, available data is sometimes far out of date and limit the ability to gauge system status. Techniques like regression and simulation are not sufficient because system characteristics have to be modeled ensuring over simplification of complex dynamics. This work presents a methodology combining the power of an Artificial Neural Network and Information Theory to capture patterns in a real dyna

  1. Dual fermion approach to disordered correlated systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haase, Patrick

    2015-01-01

    Disorder is ubiquitous in real materials and influences the physical properties like the conductivity to varying degrees. If electron-electron interactions are strong, theoretical and numerical treatment of these systems becomes challenging. In this thesis a numerical approach is developed to address these systems, treating both interactions and disorder on equal footing. The approach is based on the dual fermion approach for interacting systems developed by Rubtsov et al. Terletska et al. applied the ideas of the dual fermion approach to disordered non-interacting systems. In this approach, the replica trick is used to integrate out the disorder in favor of an effective electron-electron interaction. We extended the approach from Terletska et al. to treat disordered interacting systems. Dual Fermions allow to take into account non-local fluctuations by means of a perturbative expansion around an impurity problem. The impurity reference system is determined self-consistently, analogously to the dynamical mean-field theory. The perturbative expansion is expected to yield good results for small and large values of interaction strength and disorder. A priori, it is not clear what to expect for intermediate values, but experience shows that oftentimes good results are obtained for this region. An advantage of the dual fermion approach is that there is no sign-problem for a single orbital model if quantum Monte Carlo is used to solve the interacting reference system. Additionally, perturbation theory is usually numerically much cheaper than fully solving an interacting lattice or cluster problem. Thus, the dual fermion approach allows to address regions of parameter space that are not accessible to lattice quantum Monte Carlo calculations or cluster extension of dynamical mean-field theory. Cluster extensions of the dynamical mean-field theory are for example the dynamical cluster approximation or the cellular dynamical mean-field theory. The new approach is benchmarked

  2. A comprehensive approach for the simulation of the Urban Heat Island effect with the WRF/SLUCM modeling system: The case of Athens (Greece)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giannaros, Christos; Nenes, Athanasios; Giannaros, Theodore M.; Kourtidis, Konstantinos; Melas, Dimitrios

    2018-03-01

    This study presents a comprehensive modeling approach for simulating the spatiotemporal distribution of urban air temperatures with a modeling system that includes the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the Single-Layer Urban Canopy Model (SLUCM) with a modified treatment of the impervious surface temperature. The model was applied to simulate a 3-day summer heat wave event over the city of Athens, Greece. The simulation, using default SLUCM parameters, is capable of capturing the observed diurnal variation of urban temperatures and the Urban Heat Island (UHI) in the greater Athens Area (GAA), albeit with systematic biases that are prominent during nighttime hours. These biases are particularly evident over low-intensity residential areas, and they are associated with the surface and urban canopy properties representing the urban environment. A series of sensitivity simulations unravels the importance of the sub-grid urban fraction parameter, surface albedo, and street canyon geometry in the overall causation and development of the UHI effect. The sensitivities are then used to determine optimal values of the street canyon geometry, which reproduces the observed temperatures throughout the simulation domain. The optimal parameters, apart from considerably improving model performance (reductions in mean temperature bias from 0.30 °C to 1.58 °C), are also consistent with actual city building characteristics - which gives confidence that the model set-up is robust, and can be used to study the UHI in the GAA in the anticipated warmer conditions in the future.

  3. An approach to regional wetland digital elevation model development using a differential global positioning system and a custom-built helicopter-based surveying system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, J.W.; Desmond, G.B.; Henkle, C.; Glover, R.

    2012-01-01

    Accurate topographic data are critical to restoration science and planning for the Everglades region of South Florida, USA. They are needed to monitor and simulate water level, water depth and hydroperiod and are used in scientific research on hydrologic and biologic processes. Because large wetland environments and data acquisition challenge conventional ground-based and remotely sensed data collection methods, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) adapted a classical data collection instrument to global positioning system (GPS) and geographic information system (GIS) technologies. Data acquired with this instrument were processed using geostatistics to yield sub-water level elevation values with centimetre accuracy (??15 cm). The developed database framework, modelling philosophy and metadata protocol allow for continued, collaborative model revision and expansion, given additional elevation or other ancillary data. ?? 2012 Taylor & Francis.

  4. Systems Approach to Arms Control Verification

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allen, K; Neimeyer, I; Listner, C; Stein, G; Chen, C; Dreicer, M

    2015-05-15

    Using the decades of experience of developing concepts and technologies for verifying bilateral and multilateral arms control agreements, a broad conceptual systems approach is being developed that takes into account varying levels of information and risk. The IAEA has already demonstrated the applicability of a systems approach by implementing safeguards at the State level, with acquisition path analysis as the key element. In order to test whether such an approach could also be implemented for arms control verification, an exercise was conducted in November 2014 at the JRC ITU Ispra. Based on the scenario of a hypothetical treaty between two model nuclear weapons states aimed at capping their nuclear arsenals at existing levels, the goal of this exercise was to explore how to use acquisition path analysis in an arms control context. Our contribution will present the scenario, objectives and results of this exercise, and attempt to define future workshops aimed at further developing verification measures that will deter or detect treaty violations.

  5. Heat transfer modeling an inductive approach

    CERN Document Server

    Sidebotham, George

    2015-01-01

    This innovative text emphasizes a "less-is-more" approach to modeling complicated systems such as heat transfer by treating them first as "1-node lumped models" that yield simple closed-form solutions. The author develops numerical techniques for students to obtain more detail, but also trains them to use the techniques only when simpler approaches fail. Covering all essential methods offered in traditional texts, but with a different order, Professor Sidebotham stresses inductive thinking and problem solving as well as a constructive understanding of modern, computer-based practice. Readers learn to develop their own code in the context of the material, rather than just how to use packaged software, offering a deeper, intrinsic grasp behind models of heat transfer. Developed from over twenty-five years of lecture notes to teach students of mechanical and chemical engineering at The Cooper Union for the Advancement of Science and Art, the book is ideal for students and practitioners across engineering discipl...

  6. Developing Off-site Emergency Preparedness and Response Model (OEPRM) for Severe Accident of NPP in a Densely Populated Country Using System Dynamics Approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hossena, Muhammed Mufazzal; Kang, Kyoung Ho; Song, Jin Ho [KAERI, Deajeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    The main objectives of this study are to find the influencing factors of systems and sub-systems of OEPRM, to find the interdependency among the influencing factors, and to develop a conceptual qualitative OEPRM for densely populated NPP country in case of SA using system dynamics (SD). NPP accidents are classified as nuclear accidents and incidents depending on the severity. Severe accident (SA) is certain low probability accident that are beyond design basis accident which may arise due to multiple failures of safety systems leading to significant core degradation and jeopardize the integrity of many or all of the barriers to the release of radioactive material. The weakness to the off-site emergency response in the time of Fukushima accident was observed. So, it is crucial to develop an off-site emergency preparedness and responses model (OEPRM) for radiological emergency in densely populated country from the Fukushima emergency response lesson. In this study, an OEPRM is developed for densely populated NPP country to mitigate radiological effects in case of SA using SD approach. Besides, this study focuses the weakness of emergency response in Fukushima accident and proposed solution approach. The development of OEPRM in case of SA of NPP is very complex because of the involvement of various organization and it requires highly specialized agencies and technical experts. Moreover, if the country is agriculture based, it will make completely sophisticated.

  7. Developing Off-site Emergency Preparedness and Response Model (OEPRM) for Severe Accident of NPP in a Densely Populated Country Using System Dynamics Approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hossena, Muhammed Mufazzal; Kang, Kyoung Ho; Song, Jin Ho

    2016-01-01

    The main objectives of this study are to find the influencing factors of systems and sub-systems of OEPRM, to find the interdependency among the influencing factors, and to develop a conceptual qualitative OEPRM for densely populated NPP country in case of SA using system dynamics (SD). NPP accidents are classified as nuclear accidents and incidents depending on the severity. Severe accident (SA) is certain low probability accident that are beyond design basis accident which may arise due to multiple failures of safety systems leading to significant core degradation and jeopardize the integrity of many or all of the barriers to the release of radioactive material. The weakness to the off-site emergency response in the time of Fukushima accident was observed. So, it is crucial to develop an off-site emergency preparedness and responses model (OEPRM) for radiological emergency in densely populated country from the Fukushima emergency response lesson. In this study, an OEPRM is developed for densely populated NPP country to mitigate radiological effects in case of SA using SD approach. Besides, this study focuses the weakness of emergency response in Fukushima accident and proposed solution approach. The development of OEPRM in case of SA of NPP is very complex because of the involvement of various organization and it requires highly specialized agencies and technical experts. Moreover, if the country is agriculture based, it will make completely sophisticated

  8. Regional Radiological Security Partnership in Southeast Asia - Increasing the Sustainability of Security Systems at the Site-Level by Using a Model Facility Approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chamberlain, Travis L.; Dickerson, Sarah; Ravenhill, Scott D.; Murray, Allan; Morris, Frederic A.; Herdes, Gregory A.

    2009-01-01

    In 2004, Australia, through the Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation (ANSTO), created the Regional Security of Radioactive Sources (RSRS) project and partnered with the U.S. Department of Energy's Global Threat Reduction Initiative (GTRI) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to form the Southeast Asian Regional Radiological Security Partnership (RRSP). The intent of the RRSP is to cooperate with countries in Southeast Asia to improve the security of their radioactive sources. This Southeast Asian Partnership supports objectives to improve the security of high risk radioactive sources by raising awareness of the need and developing national programs to protect and control such materials, improve the security of such materials, and recover and condition the materials no longer in use. The RRSP has utilized many tools to meet those objectives including: provision of physical protection upgrades, awareness training, physical protection training, regulatory development, locating and recovering orphan sources, and most recently - development of model security procedures at a model facility. This paper discusses the benefits of establishing a model facility, the methods employed by the RRSP, and three of the expected outcomes of the Model Facility approach. The first expected outcome is to increase compliance with source security guidance materials and national regulations by adding context to those materials, and illustrating their impact on a facility. Second, the effectiveness of each of the tools above is increased by making them part of an integrated system. Third, the methods used to develop the model procedures establishes a sustainable process that can ultimately be transferred to all facilities beyond the model. Overall, the RRSP has utilized the Model Facility approach as an important tool to increase the security of radioactive sources, and to position facilities and countries for the long term secure management of those sources.

  9. A Conceptual Modeling Approach for OLAP Personalization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrigós, Irene; Pardillo, Jesús; Mazón, Jose-Norberto; Trujillo, Juan

    Data warehouses rely on multidimensional models in order to provide decision makers with appropriate structures to intuitively analyze data with OLAP technologies. However, data warehouses may be potentially large and multidimensional structures become increasingly complex to be understood at a glance. Even if a departmental data warehouse (also known as data mart) is used, these structures would be also too complex. As a consequence, acquiring the required information is more costly than expected and decision makers using OLAP tools may get frustrated. In this context, current approaches for data warehouse design are focused on deriving a unique OLAP schema for all analysts from their previously stated information requirements, which is not enough to lighten the complexity of the decision making process. To overcome this drawback, we argue for personalizing multidimensional models for OLAP technologies according to the continuously changing user characteristics, context, requirements and behaviour. In this paper, we present a novel approach to personalizing OLAP systems at the conceptual level based on the underlying multidimensional model of the data warehouse, a user model and a set of personalization rules. The great advantage of our approach is that a personalized OLAP schema is provided for each decision maker contributing to better satisfy their specific analysis needs. Finally, we show the applicability of our approach through a sample scenario based on our CASE tool for data warehouse development.

  10. Geometrical approach to fluid models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuvshinov, B.N.; Schep, T.J.

    1997-01-01

    Differential geometry based upon the Cartan calculus of differential forms is applied to investigate invariant properties of equations that describe the motion of continuous media. The main feature of this approach is that physical quantities are treated as geometrical objects. The geometrical notion of invariance is introduced in terms of Lie derivatives and a general procedure for the construction of local and integral fluid invariants is presented. The solutions of the equations for invariant fields can be written in terms of Lagrange variables. A generalization of the Hamiltonian formalism for finite-dimensional systems to continuous media is proposed. Analogously to finite-dimensional systems, Hamiltonian fluids are introduced as systems that annihilate an exact two-form. It is shown that Euler and ideal, charged fluids satisfy this local definition of a Hamiltonian structure. A new class of scalar invariants of Hamiltonian fluids is constructed that generalizes the invariants that are related with gauge transformations and with symmetries (Noether). copyright 1997 American Institute of Physics

  11. Eutrophication Modeling Using Variable Chlorophyll Approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdolabadi, H.; Sarang, A.; Ardestani, M.; Mahjoobi, E.

    2016-01-01

    In this study, eutrophication was investigated in Lake Ontario to identify the interactions among effective drivers. The complexity of such phenomenon was modeled using a system dynamics approach based on a consideration of constant and variable stoichiometric ratios. The system dynamics approach is a powerful tool for developing object-oriented models to simulate complex phenomena that involve feedback effects. Utilizing stoichiometric ratios is a method for converting the concentrations of state variables. During the physical segmentation of the model, Lake Ontario was divided into two layers, i.e., the epilimnion and hypolimnion, and differential equations were developed for each layer. The model structure included 16 state variables related to phytoplankton, herbivorous zooplankton, carnivorous zooplankton, ammonium, nitrate, dissolved phosphorus, and particulate and dissolved carbon in the epilimnion and hypolimnion during a time horizon of one year. The results of several tests to verify the model, close to 1 Nash-Sutcliff coefficient (0.98), the data correlation coefficient (0.98), and lower standard errors (0.96), have indicated well-suited model’s efficiency. The results revealed that there were significant differences in the concentrations of the state variables in constant and variable stoichiometry simulations. Consequently, the consideration of variable stoichiometric ratios in algae and nutrient concentration simulations may be applied in future modeling studies to enhance the accuracy of the results and reduce the likelihood of inefficient control policies.

  12. System engineering approach to GPM retrieval algorithms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rose, C. R. (Chris R.); Chandrasekar, V.

    2004-01-01

    System engineering principles and methods are very useful in large-scale complex systems for developing the engineering requirements from end-user needs. Integrating research into system engineering is a challenging task. The proposed Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) satellite will use a dual-wavelength precipitation radar to measure and map global precipitation with unprecedented accuracy, resolution and areal coverage. The satellite vehicle, precipitation radars, retrieval algorithms, and ground validation (GV) functions are all critical subsystems of the overall GPM system and each contributes to the success of the mission. Errors in the radar measurements and models can adversely affect the retrieved output values. Ground validation (GV) systems are intended to provide timely feedback to the satellite and retrieval algorithms based on measured data. These GV sites will consist of radars and DSD measurement systems and also have intrinsic constraints. One of the retrieval algorithms being studied for use with GPM is the dual-wavelength DSD algorithm that does not use the surface reference technique (SRT). The underlying microphysics of precipitation structures and drop-size distributions (DSDs) dictate the types of models and retrieval algorithms that can be used to estimate precipitation. Many types of dual-wavelength algorithms have been studied. Meneghini (2002) analyzed the performance of single-pass dual-wavelength surface-reference-technique (SRT) based algorithms. Mardiana (2003) demonstrated that a dual-wavelength retrieval algorithm could be successfully used without the use of the SRT. It uses an iterative approach based on measured reflectivities at both wavelengths and complex microphysical models to estimate both No and Do at each range bin. More recently, Liao (2004) proposed a solution to the Do ambiguity problem in rain within the dual-wavelength algorithm and showed a possible melting layer model based on stratified spheres. With the No and Do

  13. ARTICLE Robust Diagnosis of Mechatronics System by Bond Graph Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abderrahmene Sellami

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available This article presents design of a robust diagnostic system based on bond graph model for a mechatronic system. Mechatronics is the synergistic and systemic combination of mechanics, electronics and computer science. The design of a mechatronic system modeled by the bond graph model becomes easier and more generous. The bond graph tool is a unified graphical language for all areas of engineering sciences and confirmed as a structured approach to modeling and simulation of multidisciplinary systems.

  14. Physical approach to complex systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwapień, Jarosław; Drożdż, Stanisław

    2012-06-01

    Typically, complex systems are natural or social systems which consist of a large number of nonlinearly interacting elements. These systems are open, they interchange information or mass with environment and constantly modify their internal structure and patterns of activity in the process of self-organization. As a result, they are flexible and easily adapt to variable external conditions. However, the most striking property of such systems is the existence of emergent phenomena which cannot be simply derived or predicted solely from the knowledge of the systems’ structure and the interactions among their individual elements. This property points to the holistic approaches which require giving parallel descriptions of the same system on different levels of its organization. There is strong evidence-consolidated also in the present review-that different, even apparently disparate complex systems can have astonishingly similar characteristics both in their structure and in their behaviour. One can thus expect the existence of some common, universal laws that govern their properties. Physics methodology proves helpful in addressing many of the related issues. In this review, we advocate some of the computational methods which in our opinion are especially fruitful in extracting information on selected-but at the same time most representative-complex systems like human brain, financial markets and natural language, from the time series representing the observables associated with these systems. The properties we focus on comprise the collective effects and their coexistence with noise, long-range interactions, the interplay between determinism and flexibility in evolution, scale invariance, criticality, multifractality and hierarchical structure. The methods described either originate from “hard” physics-like the random matrix theory-and then were transmitted to other fields of science via the field of complex systems research, or they originated elsewhere but

  15. A time-varying extremum-seeking control approach for discrete-time systems with application to model predictive control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Guay, M.; Beerens, R.; Nijmeijer, H.

    2014-01-01

    This paper considers the solution of a real-time optimization problem using adaptive extremum seeking control for a class of unknown discrete-time nonlinear systems. It is assumed that the equations describing the dynamics of the nonlinear system and the cost function to be minimized are unknown and

  16. Development of system based code for integrity of FBR. Fundamental probabilistic approach, Part 1: Model calculation of creep-fatigue damage (Research report)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kawasaki, Nobuchika; Asayama, Tai

    2001-09-01

    Both reliability and safety have to be further improved for the successful commercialization of FBRs. At the same time, construction and operation costs need to be reduced to a same level of future LWRs. To realize compatibility among reliability, safety and, cost, the Structural Mechanics Research Group in JNC started the development of System Based Code for Integrity of FBR. This code extends the present structural design standard to include the areas of fabrication, installation, plant system design, safety design, operation and maintenance, and so on. A quantitative index is necessary to connect different partial standards in this code. Failure probability is considered as a candidate index. Therefore we decided to make a model calculation using failure probability and judge its applicability. We first investigated other probabilistic standards like ASME Code Case N-578. A probabilistic approach in the structural integrity evaluation was created based on these results, and also an evaluation flow was proposed. According to this flow, a model calculation of creep-fatigue damage was performed. This trial calculation was for a vessel in a sodium-cooled FBR. As the result of this model calculation, a crack initiation probability and a crack penetration probability were found to be effective indices. Last we discussed merits of this System Based Code, which are presented in this report. Furthermore, this report presents future development tasks. (author)

  17. A Systemic Approach: The Ultimate Choice for Gifted Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, Ting; Shi, Jiannong

    2012-01-01

    In "Towards a systemic theory of gifted education," A. Ziegler and S.N. Phillipson have proposed a systemic approach to gifted education. For this approach, they built a model that they call an "actiotope" model. As they explained in the article, an actiotope consists of the acting individual and the environment with which he or she interacts. The…

  18. 3D modeling of forces between magnet and HTS in a levitation system using new approach of the control volume method based on an unstructured grid

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alloui, L., E-mail: lotfi.alloui@lgep.supelec.fr [Laboratoire de Genie Electrique de Paris - LGEP, CNRS UMR 8507, Supelec, Universite Pierre et Marie Curie-Paris 6, Universite Paris Sud-Paris 11, Plateau de Moulon, 11 rue Joliot Curie, 91192 Gif-Sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Laboratoire de modelisation des systemes energetiques (LMSE), Universite de Biskra, 07000 Biskra (Algeria); Bouillault, F., E-mail: bouillault@lgep.supelec.fr [Laboratoire de Genie Electrique de Paris - LGEP, CNRS UMR 8507, Supelec, Universite Pierre et Marie Curie-Paris 6, Universite Paris Sud-Paris 11, Plateau de Moulon, 11 rue Joliot Curie, 91192 Gif-Sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Bernard, L., E-mail: laurent.bernardl@lgep.supelc.fr [Laboratoire de Genie Electrique de Paris - LGEP, CNRS UMR 8507, Supelec, Universite Pierre et Marie Curie-Paris 6, Universite Paris Sud-Paris 11, Plateau de Moulon, 11 rue Joliot Curie, 91192 Gif-Sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Leveque, J., E-mail: jean.leveque@green.uhp-nancy.fr [Groupe de recherche en electronique et electrotechnique de Nancy, Universite Henry Poincare, BP 239, 54506 Vandoeuvre les Nancy (France)

    2012-05-15

    In this paper we present new 3D numerical model to calculate the vertical and the guidance forces in high temperature superconductors taking into account the influence of the flux creep phenomena. In the suggested numerical model, we adopt a new approach of the control volume method. This approach is based on the use of an unstructured grid which can be used to model more complex geometries. A comparison of the control volume method results with experiments verifies the validity of this approach and the proposed numerical model. Based on this model, the levitation force's relaxation at different temperatures was also studied.

  19. A fugacity approach for modeling the transport of airborne organic chemicals in an air/plant/soil system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oliver, L.D.; McKone, T.E.

    1991-05-01

    An important issue facing both public and private agencies is the identification and quantification of exposures by indirect pathways to toxic chemicals released to the atmosphere. With recent public concerns over pesticides such as malathion and alar in foods, greater attention is being given to the process of chemical uptake by plants. Whether chemicals taken up by plants can accumulate and ultimately enter the human food chain are important questions for determining health risks and safe levels of toxic air-pollutant emissions and pesticide application. A number of plant-toxicokinetic, or ''botanicokinetic,'' models have been developed to give estimates of how chemicals are partitioned and transported within plants. In this paper, we provide a brief review of these models, describing their main features and listing some of their advantages and disadvantages. We then describe and demonstrate a five-compartment air/plant/soil model, which builds on and extends the features included in previous models. We apply this model to the steady-state chemical partitioning of perchloroethylene, hexachlorobenzene, and 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin in grass as test cases. We conclude with a discussion of the advantages and limitations of the model

  20. OTA-Grapes: A Mechanistic Model to Predict Ochratoxin A Risk in Grapes, a Step beyond the Systems Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Battilani Paola

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Ochratoxin A (OTA is a fungal metabolite dangerous for human and animal health due to its nephrotoxic, immunotoxic, mutagenic, teratogenic and carcinogenic effects, classified by the International Agency for Research on Cancer in group 2B, possible human carcinogen. This toxin has been stated as a wine contaminant since 1996. The aim of this study was to develop a conceptual model for the dynamic simulation of the A. carbonarius life cycle in grapes along the growing season, including OTA production in berries. Functions describing the role of weather parameters in each step of the infection cycle were developed and organized in a prototype model called OTA-grapes. Modelling the influence of temperature on OTA production, it emerged that fungal strains can be shared in two different clusters, based on the dynamic of OTA production and according to the optimal temperature. Therefore, two functions were developed, and based on statistical data analysis, it was assumed that the two types of strains contribute equally to the population. Model validation was not possible because of poor OTA contamination data, but relevant differences in OTA-I, the output index of the model, were noticed between low and high risk areas. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to assess/model A. carbonarius in order to predict the risk of OTA contamination in grapes.